# RWD - Reward Minerals



## exberliner1 (18 March 2007)

RWD is starting to look good imo.....they came out with a great JORC ANN last week concerning the potash reserves they own.

There is only about 44 million shares and the JORC has an in situ value of something ridiculous like $100+ per share. Potash has a retail of about $630 per tonne.

The JORC ANN of last week offered up the following:

24mn - 27mn tonnes of the stuff

There are no other potash producers in Australia as far as I am aware.

Recently BHP had expressed an interest in potash and has started an expensive mining project in Canada.

RWD's potash lies at surface in what are basically huge evaporation pools.

In addition RWD has some good looking gold prospects as well.

The price has been creeping up all week closing at 84c...it was interesting to note a buyer getting filled at 80c for 150k on Friday ....this just about cleared out the sell depth.

RWDO have a strike of 20c and mature in June 09.

Even taking half price for the RWD potash to take into account cap ex for the first year or so of operation we still get

25mn tonnes (approx) potash @ $315 = $7,875,000,000

So undiluted that's : $178 per share
and diluted : $135 per share

Current price 84c

It's gotta be worth a lot more than 84c

So with 44mn shares and only 14mn oppies available I do expect this one to fly to very soon - you have been warned.

EB


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## michael_selway (18 March 2007)

*Re: RWD*



			
				exberliner1 said:
			
		

> RWD is starting to look good imo.....they came out with a great JORC ANN last week concerning the potash reserves they own.
> 
> There is only about 44 million shares and the JORC has an in situ value of something ridiculous like $100+ per share. Potash has a retail of about $630 per tonne.
> 
> ...




What is potash used for? also looks liek it already spiked! you should have mentioned RWD before the spike!

thx

MS


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## mmmmining (18 March 2007)

*Re: RWD*

Potash (or carbonate of potash) is an impure form of potassium carbonate (K2CO3) mixed with other potassium salts.

Potash has been used since antiquity in the manufacture of glass and soap and as a *fertilizer*. The name comes from the English words pot and ash, referring to its discovery in the water-soluble fraction of wood ash.

Most of the staff is produced in Northern America.


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## exberliner1 (18 March 2007)

*Re: RWD*

potash used in fertilizer......and I would argue that this is not a spike....merely the beginning of a huge rerating...

Just keep it on the watchlist....

EB


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## champ2003 (18 March 2007)

*Re: RWD*



			
				exberliner1 said:
			
		

> potash used in fertilizer......and I would argue that this is not a spike....merely the beginning of a huge rerating...
> 
> Just keep it on the watchlist....
> 
> ...




Is that a diluted share price of one hundred and thirty five dollars or one dollar and thirty five cents.?


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## exberliner1 (18 March 2007)

$135 per share....

$7,875,000,000 / 58,000,000 shares (44mn RWD + 14mn RWDO)

= $135

And that's taking potash at half price $315 per tonne instead of $630 per tonne.

See what I mean about upside

EB


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## champ2003 (18 March 2007)

exberliner1 said:
			
		

> $135 per share....
> 
> $7,875,000,000 / 58,000,000 shares (44mn RWD + 14mn RWDO)
> 
> ...




Interesting. Do you know when they are planning on generating cash from this project?


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## champ2003 (18 March 2007)

Do you also know how many years that the production would go for? You have calculated the in ground total value by the looks of things but I don't think that thats the way to work out a share price is it?


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## exberliner1 (18 March 2007)

No it's not the way to calculate NPV on a share price champ....but it does give an indication of value going forward...

Even valuing the SP based on 2% of in situ would give us $2.70 on the fully diluted...or at 5% we get $6.75....

It is early days yet RWD has just caluculated the JORC resource....but with BHP looking to spend $1.5bn on a deep potash mine is Canada then RWD might look very attractive to them. The RWD resource sits at (or near) surface and can be recovered using simple solar evaporation.

No expensive mines needed for RWD.

I am just bringing it to people's attention here on ASF....you use your own methodology to work out where the SP should be.....I think like me you will come up with a number that is a lot bigger than the 84c it closed at on friday.

EB


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## exberliner1 (19 March 2007)

Nice to see some early morning buy orders in RWD this morning....recently this stock has been flying below the radar.

Keep an eye on RWDO....when the heads move you can often benefit from a short term arbitrage opportunity.

Still a few left at 85c.....after that we are up around $1

Based upon last week's action and the JORC ANN issued by RWD last week I would not be suprised to see RWD undergo a bit of a rerating during the first half of this week.

Good luck



EB


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## champ2003 (19 March 2007)

Hi Exberliner,

Do you have a website that I can check out which states what the going price is for potash per tonne?


Champ


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## exberliner1 (21 March 2007)

sorry Champ.....I don't....

Article from The Age...

A few days old......but still nice to see BHP and Reward Minerals discussed in the same breath....wishful thinking perhaps....

____

"RISING living standards in the boom economies of China and India not only gets translated into higher prices for base metals.

It also gets translated into increased food consumption, which, by extension, means that agriculture needs to become more intensive through the increased use of fertilisers.

That's why BHP Billiton, of all companies, recently flagged its interest in looking for a world-class potash deposit in Canada.

Potash is the common term for fertiliser forms of the element potassium (K). While it is common (seventh) in the earth's crust, finding a commercially payable deposit is something else.

As BHP begins its Canadian hunt, a little-known Perth explorer, Reward Minerals, is well down the path. That was reflected in the group's share price more than doubling in the past two weeks, from 41 ¢ to Friday's 84 ¢ a share.

The reason for the surge was simple enough ”” the company reckons that its Lake Disappointment potash deposit could contain as much as 27.37 million tonnes of sulphate of potash (SOP).

SOP is a major source of potash in fertilisers and at present sells for $632 a tonne, which means that Lake Disappointment might be anything but a disappointment.

Australia alone imports $200 million of SOP at the retail level.

____

The article quotes 27.37mn tonnes at $632 per tonne....the problem here is that most calculators do not have enough digits in the display to work that one out.....so according to The Age - makes Reward's JORC worth $17,297,840,000 or $288.30 per share fully diluted share or $393.13 per share undiluted...in situ of course.....but that is in situ at / or near surface and in Australia...

So valuing RWD at 5% of an in situ JORC.....well you work it out...

EB


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## champ2003 (21 March 2007)

exberliner1 said:
			
		

> sorry Champ.....I don't....
> 
> Article from The Age...
> 
> ...




Thanks for that exberliner. 

Something for me to mull over i think.


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## Knobby22 (14 April 2007)

Yea, I bought some at 55c.

The potential is huge and so is the risk. The location is in the middle of the desert, how do they get the stuff out? Is the quality high enough? The company are probably looking at a partnership with a larger company.
I'm happy to wait and see what unfolds.


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## champ2003 (14 April 2007)

Apparently the quality is of an excellent nature and very similar to the quality of SOP in the states so that doesn't seem to be an issue. I imagine that they could just Truck the stuff out so shouldn't be any problems there either. I've chatted to the exploration manager and he recons that they should be able to go into production within 2 years. Give them a call if you like. They are good to talk to.

They don't seem to be looking for a partner for their Potash project however i think they will need a partenr for their base metals project. They seem set on holding on to that Potash project fairly tightly but we'll just have to wait and see what pans out. Either way I don't see much downside with this company with the JORC already announced for their Potash mine as that alone underpins the shareprice and they have plenty of cash in the bank to keep the projects going. I'm not focussed on any of their other projects however they should all be the icing on the cake.


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## champ2003 (26 May 2007)

RWD looks like its coming up with the goods folks and looks set for a substantial re- rating in the coming months due to their fast progression of their Potash projects and a stream of further upcoming drilling for more Potash in other locations that have potential to host world class billion dollar projects.

I'm personally looking forward to seeing what unfolds in the very near future.

Cheers!

Champ


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## Rocket man (26 February 2008)

RWD has big plans for future potash resource. Experiencing a significant re-rating on the back of the fertiliser MAK boom. Potential numbers are also on a MAK scale .. you can read posts above for details


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## Rocket man (27 February 2008)

opened .905 this morning hit 1.15 just after midday with some big buying today - up around 20% at the moment


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## Go Nuke (28 February 2008)

Indeed.

 I got badly burnt this morning as I'm sure I was the only idiot who bought at 1.205

I wanted to to be a short term trade but instead copped yet another loss
Now that i look at the chart I really dont know what i was thinking by buying in today. Its had such a good run it was almost certain to have a day like today.


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## Tourist (3 March 2008)

I came across an article on potash last month (http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2008/feb/2008_feb_07.asp) which led me to Reward Minerals on the asx, managed to buy in a bit below $0.60, not sure whether to hold or sell..  My first stock purchase - greed has got the better of me already.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40460 (13th Feb '08) quotes the following regarding potash companies:
'Despite handsome runs across the board, recent retracements are a buying opportunity and going forward, most retracements will be buying opportunities in the context of the greater potash bull and its certain longevity in light of supply and demand realities. As the story really gets out there, the most levered players could deliver spectacular returns.'

I read that the native title decision will be made this month re: access to Lake Dissapointment, so I guess no doubt that'll influence the price for RWD.  Wait and see..


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## Sean K (3 March 2008)

Tourist said:


> I read that the native title decision will be made this month re: access to Lake Dissapointment, so I guess no doubt that'll influence the price for RWD.  Wait and see..



I can not imagine the traditional owners not allowing mining in the end. They've just initially gone too far in demand for their beer and birdswood money. I think they will see the rationality of gazillions of royalties for doing nothing during the arbitration and RWD will be able to develop quite a little money spinner.


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## imajica (31 March 2008)

I believe we have a breakout!!!  up 39%

wish I had some of these! oh well at least I have it as my pick in this months stock tipping comp. running on the last day - classic


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 April 2008)

kennas said:


> They've just initially gone too far in demand for their beer and birdswood money.




lol Kenna thats mean :

RWD do look very very interesting, especially since they seem more advanced than MAK in terms of their Potash projects,

Its amazing, these potash companies seem to be the next big thing, after all everyones gotta eat right?


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## sigmadelta (1 April 2008)

MAK don't have any potash, they have phosphate, and it has minimal capital expenditure and infrastructure development. 

RWD have probably a bit more to do, but they still have stunning potential for spinning off cash.


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## Sean K (2 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> lol Kenna thats mean :
> 
> RWD do look very very interesting,



Was a pretty good bet I reckon. Now looks to be pushing on after a breakout a couple of days ago. MAK running away, again, as well.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 April 2008)

Hey thanks sigmadelta for clearing up my misunderstanding

RWD trading at highs now and yeah noticed good old MAK running hard to, go the poo (fertilizer) brigade


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 April 2008)

Great ann from RWD, price of PooTash is up strong


Great Salt Lake Minerals Corp (GSL) a subsidiary of Compass Minerals (USA) has announced an average price rise of USD $72 per short ton for it’s range of Sulfate of Potash (SOP) products. Compass Minerals announced – quote
*“The list price for standard non granulated SOP will now be USD$ 658 per short ton ex works and the granulated SOP price will be USD $670 per ton from April 14, 2008.”*
The Compass Minerals announcement follows a March 27, 2008 release advising that the Canadian Potash group Canpotex has recently settled contracts for the sale of 1,325,000 metre tonnes of Muriate of Potash (MOP – Potassium Chloride) to Indian distributor IPL at a price of USD $625 per metric tonne representing a price increase of 76% from the previous year.
Such increases are significant to Reward Minerals in the context of accelerating the Potash production of SOP from it’s Lake Disappointment resource. Recent agreement reached with Martu Traditional owners regarding development of the project should greatly assist in achieving this objective.
*Retail prices in Australia for SOP and MOP prior to the abovementioned increases were ca $825 and $630 per metric tonne respectively. *The Company is aiming at an initial output of 200,000 tpa of SOP from Lake Disappointment.
M RUANE
Director


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## Evangeline (2 April 2008)

Hi Kennas

Since you seem to hold both rwd and mak....which would you consider the better buy?  I'm thinking of recycling some mak profits into rwd before it gets away too far...smaller market cap...less shares.....what sort of timeline does rwd have i wonder?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 April 2008)

Hey Evan,

I know RWD have been working on thier potash project since 2006 and have a JORC and PFS figures etc etc, so in that way they are quite advanced,

Thye basically calculated that the CAP EX would be $120m (probably $150m now given rising costs)

But Net Profit was going to be $26m a year with a mine life of over 100years, ie *$26m NET PROFIT for 100 Years*, and that was using the old lower Potash price

Who knows what it would be now

I have attached the summary calcs the company had,

Enjoy


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## Rockety (3 April 2008)

MAK, IPL, RWD - any more potash/phosphate producers/miners in australia or something that has a connection to fertilizers?

check CF, MOS, POT on the NYSE market, they did a nice little run aswell


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## OxfordBull (3 April 2008)

Working backwards using Young Traders figures, the potash price it is based on works out to $448 per ton. If we rework the figures using a price of $850 per ton we get a gross profit of $117m (net $82m).

Remember that they want to scale up to 400,000 tpa and you can see that the net could get up around $160m. 

That would be more than $2 per share per year based on the currently issued shares.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (4 April 2008)

OxfordBull said:


> Working backwards using Young Traders figures, the potash price it is based on works out to $448 per ton. If we rework the figures using a price of $850 per ton we get a gross profit of $117m (net $82m).
> 
> Remember that they want to scale up to 400,000 tpa and you can see that the net could get up around $160m.
> 
> That would be more than $2 per share per year based on the currently issued shares.




*$2 a share profit a year*????? Crazy, that means its on a Price to Profit ratio of less than 1,

I think it will take a serious Insto/Company/Investor to get behind RWD and then it will push up hard, especially since the registry is so tight!

Go the POO Brigade, charge!!!!!!


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## gfresh (4 April 2008)

The numbers of RWD are pretty stunning when studied aren't they.. 

Possible 200eps profit = several times current price as a given. 

Native title sorted it seems. The question is how soon can they get mining operations up and working? Lake Disappointment pilot plant should be up and running towards the end of this year/start of next. 

As potash is pretty specialised, not like there are 50 potential potash miners out there. POT on the NYSE gives some idea of what the current demand for Potash is doing for producers.. $55 to over $160 in 12 months.. It's trading on a p/e of 50 mind you. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=POT


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## YOUNG_TRADER (6 April 2008)

Hey guys,

Here's a very interesting post off another forum comparing Potash and Potassium operations, interesting I for one had no idea

"let me share a few things I've learned about potash vs. phosphate by trading ag stocks in Canada long before Aussie investors knew the difference between potash and kitty litter.

Potash is an oligopoly controlled by a few major players that control prices through natural supply constraint. Other than RWD and maybe one or two others, there will be no new supply players coming on the market for the next 5-6 years. (the time it takes to build a greenfield deep shaft mine). 
Phosphate, on the other hand is mined all over the world and not suitable for a Debeers like monopoly. Did you know there are dozens of phosphate mines in the US that were shut down during the last price drop, and are probably being recommissioned as we speak? Do you know how many Potash mines are being recommisioned? To my knowledge zero."


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## countryboy (6 April 2008)

Now i am getting confused ADY have a project up and running which they switch names for all through their web site between potassium and potash-for them it appears it means the same thing.Estimate of their resource:

2) Potash Reserves, expressed as KCl, after 70% recovery;

  Low Expected High Uncertainty of the estimate   
Million tonnes 
Proved Reserves 27.1      33.0 ±1.9     39.5  ±10% 
Probable Reserves 10.5    17.8 ±2.6     27.4  ±24% 
Total Reserves 37.5         50.8 ±4.5     67.0  ±15% 

my understanding is they are producing and now selling

All i want to do is buy and sell shares not be a geo,mining expert etc
this is getting harder all the time !


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## urgalzmine (6 April 2008)

countryboy said:


> Now i am getting confused ADY have a project up and running which they switch names for all through their web site between potassium and potash-for them it appears it means the same thing.Estimate of their resource:
> 
> 2) Potash Reserves, expressed as KCl, after 70% recovery;
> 
> ...




Hey Country dude

If you search Potash under Wiki it states:

"The term has become somewhat ambiguous due to the substitution in fertilizers of cheaper potassium salts, such as potassium chloride (KCl) or potassium oxide (K2O)[1], to which the same common name is now sometimes also applied. "

Now looking at ADY website:
http://www.ady.com.au/pdf/pdf7_050727_rincon_salar_JORC_estimate.pdf
It states ADY has "Potassium chloride which is KCI" reserves  it does not state Sulphate of Potash K2SO4 which is what RWD has, refer to YT on why this is relevant.

However ADY main aim is to drill out Lithium where KCI is a by product. In other words ADY gets KCI for free... so its an extra bonus for ADY. You would look to buy ADY shares if u like Iron Ore and Lithium not for their KCI.  

Please correct me if I am wrong.. I hate chemistry


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## OxfordBull (7 April 2008)

The numbers are indeed stunning. But I would caution that there will almost certainly be another round of capital raising before Reward can become a producer. Depending on how much the institutions are willing to stump up and how much the banks are willing to lend in this new age of risk averse markets, we will face some dilution of our current shareholdings.

Even so, if we speculate that they might issue another 70 million shares at around $1.20 and borrow $40m to fund the development we would still be looking at 50 cents per share net profit initially and $1 when production ramps up. 

I just hope that if new shares are issued at a discount that they will look after the small shareholders too.


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## gfresh (7 April 2008)

Thinking further - $2.00eps would be on the 400ktpa figure - so probably fair to assume these figures won't be reached until at least 2012, if not later. So a while off IMO. 

As Oxfordbull states, we do need to consider how the development costs will be funded, and dilute accordingly. 

In their presentation, the figures include an amortisation+interest cost on each tonne produced for $60M (payback 3 years). This leaves approx 50% of estimated CAPEX of $120M, to be funded, more than likely via equity. If they do a placement at say $1.50 (I am hopeful by the time the issue needs to be done the price would have moved further from here ) .. 40M shares to be issued. This would give approx 107M fully diluted shares for RWD. 

Going on the 200ktpa to begin with, at least $825/tonne price:

Total costs/tonne = $263.. $562/tonne profit x 200,000 = $112.4M EBT
NPAT: 0.7 x $112M = $78.68M / 107M = $0.735eps

Oxford's $0.50eps seem fair so pick a figure somewhere around there. Still, this gives multiple upside from current price. 

Of course, we are all going on a May 07 presentation (p.21), things have changed a bit since then - so final eps are speculative at best.  

It would be good to have an updated estimate from them, maybe we will have to wait until a BFS (after the trial?)


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## YOUNG_TRADER (7 April 2008)

Hmmm broken out (sorta) to new highs,

I saw RWD was on the Opes list, I get the feeling that the selling from Opes has probably been whats holding this stock back

Still chart gives the impression that it wants to go higher (I think)


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## YOUNG_TRADER (7 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Still chart gives the impression that it wants to go higher (I think)




BREAKOUT confirmed now,

Trading at all time highs, looks like Opes selling lid has finall been lifted

POO Brigade Charge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol


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## michael_selway (7 April 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> BREAKOUT confirmed now,
> 
> Trading at all time highs, looks like Opes selling lid has finall been lifted
> 
> POO Brigade Charge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol




Hi do you know if there are any up to date price history charts of POTASH and PHOSPHATE?

Also besides IPL, MAK, RWD, are there any other companies on the ASX, exploring or producing these minerals?

thx

MS


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## Plasmo (7 April 2008)

Bought first thing this morning, closed up what, 10%? Anyway I'm pleased, if I can just make 10% returns every day


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## YOUNG_TRADER (7 April 2008)

Hi Michael,

I know BON is looking for Phosphate underwater off the coast of Nambia, its a load of crap if you ask me but I've been trading BON very succesfully on the back of all the hype, key word trade I wouldn't consider BON an investment linked to Phosphate (hence I din't bother even posting about it) good trading opp though

As for the pricing I just rely on the company and RWD released recently a strong increase in the POOtash price, check the thread

Cheers


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## Riles (8 April 2008)

There's also STB - South Boulder Mines.
They have the area next to RWD's Lake Disappointment for potash, but don't have their exploration licence yet for that area.
Then they have a Phosphate area next to SMD - Cardabia - previously drilled by CRA late 1980's. Also awaiting exp licence.
I believe they have some MAK directors involved.

They also have high grade shallow gold intercepts at Duketon.
Then there's a nickel JV with IGO and a Uranium spin off.

Worth a look IMHO. Their price hasn't run like the other RP/potash players because they're still in early stages.
45m shares on issue so MC about $11m @25c.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 April 2008)

Hey thanks Stiles, I forgot about STB

RWD seems to still be in an uptrend since the announcement that they have access to their Multi Billion DOllar Potash project see my chart and techies correct me if I'm wrong please


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## YOUNG_TRADER (9 April 2008)

I notice the director did a bit of shuffling around ie sold some shares to exercise options and as a result his net holding went up further,

I like it when directors align their interests with that of shareholders and since management control the majority of this company its a given here


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## OxfordBull (9 April 2008)

The director dealing was actually a net sell. He ended up with 1.16 million shares for free plus almost $250,000 cash in his pocket. 

It looks like the rally has topped out and we could have a pullback for a round of profit taking. 

I'm going to try to ignore the price movements keep holding these until they start producing. The should be worth big dollars by then.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (9 April 2008)

Hey Oxford,

Yeah I took another look at that change notice,

I don't think the director was actually selling, it looks like it was selling by Intermin Resources another ASX listed company, I think they spun out RWD and thus have alot of shares,

So its definately not the driector selling personally which is a good thing imo


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## meganut (9 April 2008)

Also TUC reckon they might be onto some Phosphate around Tennant Creek in the NT but low grades so far but early days in the drilling.


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## morton_mains (9 April 2008)

And just for completeness...also one indirect exposure and one semi?-direct exposure:
*IDO*
my post in MAK: _"just remember to knock 10% off any NPV calcs. for Indo Mines (IDO) who sold Wongarah to MAK and still hold 10% Option to buy back in for 20% of the capex. But it hasn't moved their price..yet"_ Their annual accounts shows it at pretty low cost in investments - so the true NTA is much higher.


*WES*
This hasn't been noticed at all. ..see my message another board 
Lynas Corp have minerals in MP38/327 except phosphate which is owned by CSBP Wesfarmers Ltd ( I have confirmed by email from LYC).
When Anaconda passed this to LYC the media release(2001) quoted estim 260M tonnes @ 19.8% Phosphate. So Calc of in situ = net 47Mt @US$200t @ 0.90AUD is about $11B. 
Anyhow - this lies under the LYC mineralisation so won't be an immediate. Check out LYC website for pretty diagrams

I note WES mkt cap today is $20B


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## Plasmo (10 April 2008)

Any thoughts on why this stock is dropping at the moment?  Just profit taking?  It seems to me to still be severly undervalued.


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## gfresh (10 April 2008)

Dropping on very low volume (169,421) today.. possibly Intermin selling some more down.  

Sitting pretty much on $1.41 support line right now.. 

I wouldn't be too concerned at the moment, but critical in this market to set a stop loss just in case you are wrong. Mine is a bit flexible, but approx $1.30.


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## alankew (10 April 2008)

Could also be traders realising profits and putting their money into IRC(think this is the right code)


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## Rocket man (10 April 2008)

just profit taking but also intermin selling and seeing its pretty illiquid then sp gets hammered but seems now to be good support at 1.40. I believe Sp will be on its way for the next leg up towards $2 very soon and when it happens it will be swift

This share is a classic medium term hold IMO given the Ag frenzy and it being the only likely potash producer in AUS any time soon


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## YOUNG_TRADER (10 April 2008)

alankew said:


> Could also be traders realising profits and putting their money into IRC(think this is the right code)




lol given the volumes I seriously doubt it, 250k@30c= *$75k* I'd expect far more volume if that were true

Anyway, RWD is a great company with great fundamanetals, as far as I know its the only company with a Potash deposit and as I posted earlier, Australia imports 100% of its Potash so I think its safe to say RWD could end up with alot of interest from Potash users

Time will tell


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## Sean K (11 April 2008)

Shaw have come out with a decent report on RWD that would interest most punters in the poo market.

They recommend it as a buy, but just a $1.75 price target, not sure of the time frame.

Interesting reading anyway.


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## Sean K (11 April 2008)

Management sound OK.

Ruane seems to be a little bit shy in ramping his companies. Check IRC for an example. 

Perhaps he needs to speak to Andrew Drummond of MAK on how to promote a company?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (11 April 2008)

Ruane is a good engineer/chemical guru but not sure if PR is his forte

I agree completely Kenna, he tends to play things conservatively, which is good, ie better than rampers but in such a competative mkt for capital and attention, surely he realises the need to do a bit of promotion ie IRC as well

Anyway I found the valuation very confusing, they say $1.75, but then at the end say over $4 if we take current prices into consideration

I guess they must think that Pootash prices will fall


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 April 2008)

The Poo brigade is launching a second charge!!!!!!

I've been noticing lately more and more articles talk about a food crisis/shortage, even today in Stock Analysis Peter Strachan was talking about a global food shortage and Fertilizers/Agri stuff being as important as Oil going forward

Who would have thought?

p.s. scary stuff indeed


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## shaunm (16 April 2008)

Damn, I got flushed out of my stop loss yesterday at 1.31. Now it's rubbing salt into the wounds


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## d_crome (17 April 2008)

Any idea how much cash these guys have on hand at this moment in time?  

I have that feeling that I've missed the train in the 1.30's so I'm assuming that they'll do a cap raising with the immediate rise in SP to cash in on the current sentiment - much like MAK did @1.5.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 April 2008)

Hey D chrome,

re Cap Raising I doubt it mate, as at last qtrly they had *$6.08m in the bank* of which *$300k* was earmarked for *expenses/exploration* etc

But they have had *$320k worth of options exercised*

So Bank = $6.08 + options = $320k - Expenses = $300k

*Net = $6.1m*

So even after exploration costs their net cash position went up!

IRC is a mjor shareholder of RWD and I have a feeling the Michael Ruane who sold some shares on mkt to then exercise options may be doing that again today,

Its a smart move as IRC nets some money and so does RWD, however once this is over with I reckon it will be like having a lid or overhang lifted and the RWD price shoul respond accordingly


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## d_crome (17 April 2008)

YT - cheers for that.

I think I'll have to wait for the yanks to realize that their market is doomed again (should be friday I'm guessing) before I make an entry.

Always laugh when you see Wall St focusing on the tiny silver lining and completely disregarding the monster grey cloud like they did today!

YT - what will be their future exploration and extraction costs?  Where will their funding come from?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 April 2008)

Mate read back a page, 

I posted a pic/extract from company ann, its outdated and based on old much lower prices

I think they said 50:50 debt/equity funding

Cheers


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## d_crome (18 April 2008)

Well I'm in - I'll pay a small premium at this stage for what looks to be a really good investment in a resource we're depending upon more and more.

Early trading today indicates that the rise has attracted the interests of those "Ghost" traders - a large 150,000 unit buy was listed @ 1.73 but was "magically" pulled before opening.

More interest the better I say - hope this little guy is the true "Mini-MAK" it's cracked up to be.


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## Markcoinoz (18 April 2008)

Posted this in the MAK thread.

However, very relevant for Reward as well.

One for the fertilizer buffs.

57 pages

Current World Fertilizer Trends & Outlook to 2011/2012

ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/cwfto11.pdf

Good weekend reading.


Cheers markcoinoz


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## Markcoinoz (18 April 2008)

Bare in mind that this report has become obsolete given China has changed its export role.

The updated version will be the real nail cruncher.

Cheers markcoinoz


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 April 2008)

Very interesting reading Marco, thanks

Isn't China going from an exporter to an importer for fertilizers? I remember reading that somewhere,

Its amzing how much of demand comes for Asia, my guess bulk from ChIndia!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

I'd say the mkt still is getting to understand the importance of fertilizers going forward


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## Adam A (19 April 2008)

Agree 100% yt 
Have a read of this except from this post (commodities tipped to collapse)

Below is a fantastic read that someone posted from another forum.

Source Southern Cross Equities

According to an excellent report titled "Preparing for China's Urban Billion" by The McKinsey Global Institute (McKinsey & Company's economics research arm) China's urbanisation will lead to the following.

350 million: will be added to China's urban population by 2025- more than the population of today's United States.

1 billion; people who will live in China's cities by 2030

221; Chinese cities will have one million + plus people living in them- Europe has 35 today

5 billion; square meters of road will be paved

170; mass transit systems will be built

40 billion; square meters of floor space will be built- in five million buildings

50,000; of these buildings could be skyscrapers- the equivalent of constructing up to ten New York cities.

5 times- the number by which GDP will have multiplied by 2025.

It's worth noting that MGI's work is completely independent and has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government or other institution.

Just have a think about some of those numbers above. 2025 is only 17 years away. If these forecasts are even half right the ramifications for the Australian resource sector and Australia are enormous. I realise we are in an equity market that currently can't see past tomorrow, but just consider what the ramifications of China's urbanisation could be. Remember, we are at the infancy of that urbanisation right now, not the end of it as the equity market wants to believe. Where is the raw material supply going to come from to meet China's ambitious urbanisation and GDP growth goals?

No wonder the talk is now Beijing is preparing to take a stake in BHP Billiton. Personally, I am surprised it has taken them this long to turn up on BHP's register.

Im a big supporter of both RWD and MAK, with these sorts of numbers projected for the urbanisation of china demand for food and food related items will go thru the roof imho, lets also not forget India
The beginning of the agricultural super cycle has just started. 
The mineral boom for aus has a long long way to go imho


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## d_crome (23 April 2008)

I posted this on another less well versed forum and was wondering if there's any feedback here at ASF:

I was wondering if it would be helpful to start a thread to literally stand these two stocks comparatively and see ultimately if they're as similar as most believe.

What is the benefit of Potash over Phosphate? IS there an advantage to either?

What's the comparative difference between the DEMAND for both Potash and Phosphate? Which would be the better short, mid and long term prospect?

What stage of development/exploration are both companies at?

What level of market saturation/awareness has been undertaken for both RWD and MAK?

What potential issues face both projects? Proximity to infrastructure? Obscure refining techniques?

I know for a fact that RWD has a JORC, does MAK?

I think it'd be rather interesting if holders of both of those with an informative perspective would feel free to illuminate this thread.

As food for thought (pardon the pun) with this massive fertilizer "boom" I believe most have overlooked the OTHER most important resource required to grow a crop - WATER. Given the climate change we're all experiencing and the way that some superpowers on this earth do NOT regulate the aquifer draw-down the breadbaskets of the US and China will both be suffering rather large water shortages in the coming years. Thoughts? A note - Aquifers take tens of thousands of years to create, and without careful monitoring and recharging, these rich resources of water can be depleted in a matter of decades.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (23 April 2008)

Maybe this should go under a commodity topic as well ie Phosphate v Potash

I read an excellent report on all agri commodities awhile back I think it was from someone who put a link on RWD thread, I'll check

Wait just saw it,

ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/cwfto11.pdf

A big thankyou to Marco! 

p.s. if you can't decide between Phospahte and Potash why not have both with STB : (its an early stage explorer and projects yet to be granted, its low mkt cap takes into account its spec nature though)


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## YOUNG_TRADER (23 April 2008)

Looks like a breakout to me above $1.70, trading at new highs on good volume 

But perhpas its best for a chartist/techie to confirm this with a chart, pretty please


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## tech/a (23 April 2008)

Trading this myself YT.
From todays breakout.Good volume but likely to pause.
Dont like AGETS wave count but I'll trade VSA.
Being a techie.R/R's good--if it gets there.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (24 April 2008)

That would certainly be nice if it hit your target of $2.60

$1.75 was an important level as that is where the recent VERY CONSERVATIVE valuation had a buy target of

The fundies support  price of $2+ and if the tech suggests it may get there then well surely our chances are good


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## tech/a (24 April 2008)

YT

Thats $2.86 ish.---Target.

The 2.618 is a fibonacci level.
The coming few days will be telling on future action however there is much to tell from where its been.
If you look at the bars before the breakout you'll note that volume decreased after a buy surge.This indicated no supply and as such price was supported.
The breakout then took off well as there were few sellers.
Sellers returned to the market at $1.86 I noticed.


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## Rocket man (25 April 2008)

Word on the street is that RWD doing a roadshow this monday in melbourne and tues/wed in Sydney. Should bring some good insto support to this relatively unknown agri stock. Might lead to a placement maybe but wouldnt be a bad thing IMO- this company needs promotion. I expect positive movement over coming weeks. If an into decides to buy up sp will move fast due to illiquidity.


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## Markcoinoz (26 April 2008)

Hi people,

I posted this also on the MAK forum.

Here is the Fertiliser report for this week.

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertrepor...ket-042408.pdf



for the week beginning thursday 24/04/2008

DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne) $1,216.25
DAP fob Central Florida (short ton) $1,011.25
DAP fob NOLA (short ton) $996.25

Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $545.00
Urea (Prill) fob Baltic (metric tonne) $521.75
Urea (prill) fob China bulk/bagged (metric tonne) $606.25
Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (short ton) $496.25
Urea (gran) fob Middle East (metric tonne) $506.25

Ammonia fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $480.00
Ammonia cfr Tampa (metric tonne) $550.00

Ammonium nitrate fob NOLA (short ton) $360.00

UAN (32% N) fob NOLA (short ton) $343.75

molten sulphur cfr Tampa/delivered C.Florida ($/long ton) $451.25
solid sulphur - Adnoc monthly lifting price at Ruwais ($/tonne) $670.00


As well i gleaned this brilliant Fertiliser Map from another forum.
Not only the mention of Imports/Exports, it also shows the livestocks of each country.

From the Potash Website.

http://www.potashcorp.com/media/flash/world_map/



Cheers markcoinoz


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## grizzly1 (27 April 2008)

Synergy would drive a deal if capital is needed, though others post the apparent lack of current need.

Point of note for any possible predators/partners, the Shaw stockbroking report further back in this thread puts costs at $223 per tonne, $100 labour $100 transport $23 royalties. The note about backloading explosives must appeal stongly to any companies with operations in the region,that is Newman, that is BHP, and while on the starting rumours/speculation trail, what about Dampier Salt (RIO), parallel expertise, similar economics on transport. Shame the largest shareholder holds a stake similar to that pesky Mr Forest, whom I'm sure would also be in line to stick it to the majors in what would be a move sure to make him look smart, anyone know if Mr Michael Ruane has a grudge against the majors?


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## adamim1 (28 April 2008)

RWD on a breakout today?

up at 1.93, I think thats the highest its ever been?

Anyways, looking good today, even MAK is up today after a week of going down.


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## d_crome (28 April 2008)

With today's announcement RWD have clearly alerted the market that they indeed have a large resource of a high demand commodity.

RWD is about to reach the same highs that MAK is currently experiencing.  MAK have been flooding the market with announcements, the SP of MAK elevated at the same rate at which announcements were issued.

RWD reached a high of 1.86 with NO market announcements.  RWD also have a head start on MAK in regards to proved resources (JORC) - thus it does reason that if MAK got as far as they did, RWD _SHOULD_ exceed MAK in the very short term.

Again - DYOR - I'm certainly not a broker!!

Congrats to all the holders, things are indeed looking good.

It should be noted that given the market presentation and rise in SP, a stock issue is imminent IMHO....


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## adamim1 (28 April 2008)

excuse my ignorance ( i am new)

How does issuing more shares effect the share price? Is it just as simple as supply vs demand? More supply = lower share price?


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## Sean K (28 April 2008)

adamim1 said:


> excuse my ignorance ( i am new)
> 
> How does issuing more shares effect the share price? Is it just as simple as supply vs demand? More supply = lower share price?



In three ways I feel. 

More shares on issue means it's more liquid and won't move as fast up or down.
More shares on issue dilutes the company market cap making it less value for the same assets.
Issuing shares (at a price) improves the financial position of the company.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 April 2008)

Yeah RWD is looking good and as todays presentation highlighted

AUSTRALIA's ONLY JORC POTASH PROJECT

Surely thats got to give it the monopoly advantage

So Tech looks like this memeber of the Poo Brigade is charging hard and fast towards your price target


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## Plasmo (28 April 2008)

I am very pleased with this stock, and will be riding it to at least $4 over the next 12 months.

Any similar no-brainers on the market atm?


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## reece55 (28 April 2008)

Plasmo said:


> I am very pleased with this stock, and will be riding it to at least $4 over the next 12 months.
> 
> Any similar no-brainers on the market atm?




Nice chart, but Plasmo care to elaborate here mate? Why do you think "you will be riding it to at least $4.00 over the next 12 months..." Any fundamental or technical reason behind this seemingly out of thin air price target?????????????

Cheers


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## Plasmo (28 April 2008)

That's a rough figure based on the same fundamental analysis referenced earlier in this thread but taking into account higher Potash prices, which are not likely to decline any time soon given food shortages and the absence of any other major source of Potash in Australia.

If their exploratory projects yield anything, the price if anything could go higher still.


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## roland (28 April 2008)

Plasmo said:


> That's a rough figure based on the same fundamental analysis referenced earlier in this thread but taking into account higher Potash prices, which are not likely to decline any time soon given food shortages and the absence of any other major source of Potash in Australia.
> 
> If their exploratory projects yield anything, the price if anything could go higher still.




Hi Plasmo, I think we also need to understand that food shortages are not due to shortages of Potash supply, but more to do with shrinking arable land and lack of rainfall. As the agricultural community shrinks, the one would assume that fertiliser demand would also reduce. Correct me if I am on the wrong track here - I am no farming expert


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## Plasmo (28 April 2008)

1 of the reasons for food shortage is that America is paying its farmers to grow corn to be turned into car fuel.  This not only eats up the supply of corn and pushes people onto corn alternatives (eg wheat, rice), it also encourages other farmers to switch to growing corn instead of other crops.

Rising wealth in China is also enabling them to eat more food.

Even if arable land decreases somewhat, there is sufficiently greater demand to force the remaining land to be used more efficiently - it isn't as if all land is flooded with the maximum useful quantity of fertiliser currently.

We also need to consider that the export tax China is slapping on its own supplies is creating a competitive advantage for Australian potash production.

Even if the quantity of arable land shrinks, to grow more food on less land requires more fertiliser.  Ultimately bringing more supplies onto the market will counterbalance demand for fertiliser with increased supply, but in the meantime, windfall profits await entrepeneurs who are in the market early.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

Hi guys,

There have been some very good points raised in this discussion,

ie that reduced suitablle arable land = reduced demand for fertilizer 

but reduced arable land with same requirement of food output = requirement for increased effciency ie = more fertilizer effciency


HOWEVER there is one important thing to remember, AUSTRALIA IMPORTS 100% OF ITS POTASH REQUIREMENTS

Whether this local demand for Potash stays flat is irrelevant as RWD's operation can supply 100% of it and thus the asset becomes sorta like a national treasure

Hopefully RWD can push higher but it looks like alot of the easy gains ie 50c - $2 have already been made, that being said being the only Potash play in Australai who knows how high it can go


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## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2008)

Looks like a breakout now above $2

Its taken a bit of volume but it finally got there,

Tech/a hows the chart looking? Still on target?????


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## d_crome (30 April 2008)

Announcement out - AGM on.

CAP RAISING!!!!

Per resolution 3 of the AGM notice, they're looking to take advantage of their current SP and place an additional 20 MILLION shares placed at approximately 80% of the tradining SP over the past 5 days.

MAK did the same thing when they were trading at 1.5 and it hasn't harmed their SP at all.  

I can only think this is a positive, with more cash in the bank to prove there's more potash in the ground and also to be able to finance initial pilot projects it looks as though RWD are stepping it up to the next level.

Again - not a broker so please DYOR.


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## shaunm (30 April 2008)

Had a look at the announcement and didn't say whether the cap raising is for current holders or open to the general public?


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## d_crome (30 April 2008)

shaunm said:


> Had a look at the announcement and didn't say whether the cap raising is for current holders or open to the general public?




Shaun - they've been presenting to institutions since monday, so it would be fairly safe to assume this float won't be available to the public.

Bringing larger insto's onboard will bring with it more stability and also a broader public exposure, both valuable commodities that will ensure that RWD continue to be successful.

RWD's march has been smooth and steady, unlike MAK's which has been quite sharp with several large dips - this indicates to me that I'd rather be in RWD's stable than MAK's at this point in time.

Again - DYOR and don't blame me because I'm the financial village idiot.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 April 2008)

Hey d-crome

I agree, the placement will no doubt be done to institutions etc etc maybe even a major Potash or Agri player, this will help and is in my opinion helping get the word out on RWD and its Potash Project

It looks like its drawing lot of positive attention to RWD as it appears to have broken out above $2

Racing towards Tech target, where are ya Techie? A new chart would be nice


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## d_crome (30 April 2008)

YT mate - definitely on an uptrend at the moment, I do believe that the RWD SP will match that of MAK within a month or less and will then exceed it.

If you look at the amount of PR that RWD has issued and the performance of the SP (i.e. ONE announcement and a consistent climb) compared with MAK (near DAILY announcements providing a rapid SP rise yet now a sideways trader) RWD is really starting to shape up quite nicely.

Now if only my other stocks would behave as well as RWD *cough* MXR *cough* lol!


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## tech/a (30 April 2008)

YT
All good but it wont go straight up to the target.
I expect a correction very soon.Signs already.
I'm actually trading a 60 min chart at the moment.
See notes on chart.(Daily).


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## Spineli (30 April 2008)

Courtesy: The New York Times

The Food Chain: Fertilizer Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/worldbusiness/30fertilizer.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Video @...

http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=2ac5e89ebe7db83e09a79a59e7eef7bf21aafa0c


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## Spineli (30 April 2008)

Worldwide Fertilizer Consumption Demand is on the increase...see the attached file for a World schematic.

A few people have been discussing the consequences of a reduction in arable land. The NY Times article points to increased desire for efficiency to generate higher yields, a direct result from increasing fertilizer use across developing economies.


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## d_crome (1 May 2008)

Tech/A,
           as much respect as I have for those with the ability to do chart tech analysis - with the amount of hype and fundamentals the agriculture/food shortage issues are experiencing currently I really don't believe RWD can be accurately charted at this point in time.

If people want a "crystal ball" I suggest they go over to the MAK thread and go back about a month and read the comments throughout, there was no accurate way at all for technically based analysis - MAK was the little engine that could and would always baffle those trying to guage future progress via chart analysis.

RWD is following MAK's lead in near everyway at this point, which to me really makes RWD a no-brainer.

Again - DYOR!!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

Hey Spineli

Thanks for the info, hope you don't mind but I'm going to borrow it and put it on GCR, you guys may want to take a look at it, its a very cheap Phosphate player with a 500Mt resource

d-chrome thats a afair point, I guess its hard for charts to account for future stuff like insto's getting in etc etc

Still I am interested to see how close tech's chart is, he's very good if not the best on ASF


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## d_crome (1 May 2008)

YT - I concur - Tech/a is definitely an A game player and I've always respected his/her input.

The only reason I hesitate was as I watched - note that word WATCHED - MAK climb from 0.5 when it hit my radar to it's now 2.5+ there was just no way I could gauge when or where it would go.  I'd initially anticipated a retreat from 1.2 back to the mid 0.8/0.7's thinking it was just another "fad" stock.

I just feel right at this point in time that due to the fundamentals and the fact that food is currently in the public spotlight that these factor too heavily into a stocks potential to be measured by chart analysis.

Though I'd love it if he was right and there is a retrace, I'll be loading up!!

I'm still kicking myself for not pulling that trigger on MAK, but that's life.


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## tech/a (1 May 2008)

No crystal balls with analysis (Technical) although many think that's what its all about.
In the short term (and that's how I'm trading at the moment). Tech analysis _Indicates_ trader sentiment within the stock in fact it shows me what you Fundamental guys are thinking. There are 100s of you all with varying opinions---just as those techies trading RWD have various slants on their analysis.

I don't know anything about RWD in fact reading this thread has educated me heaps.

So analysis---all analysis will ultimately be proven correct or incorrect.
So we place ourselves in trading positions in anticipation of our analysis.

Possibly in the short term I may have an insight into what sentiment is and is likely to be. Others may not ---looking at the bigger picture.

For me being wrong is accepted----- often am,but where *PROFIT* is involved its *HOW LONG *you *STAY* wrong which is the governing factor.

Good trading to all---Ive learn much about this company--thanks.


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## adamim1 (1 May 2008)

tech/a said:


> YT
> All good but it wont go straight up to the target.
> I expect a correction very soon.Signs already.
> I'm actually trading a 60 min chart at the moment.
> See notes on chart.(Daily).




You were right.

I bought in at 2.04 and it closed today @ 1.95. Not that I'm worried I'm fairly hopeful that it will go up past MAK like someone else stated. How much lower do you think it will go? If it goes lower i might as well buy more.

Also, where did you learn how to make and interpret charts?


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## Rocket man (1 May 2008)

simply profit taking after a biggish run IMO...  but after some consolidation and some weeding out of some short term profit takers it should be on its way north again


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## adamim1 (1 May 2008)

Rocket man said:


> simply profit taking after a biggish run IMO...  but after some consolidation and some weeding out of some short term profit takers it should be on its way north again




Well if MAK can push up to near $3, there should be no reason why RWD cannot exceed that. Anyways nothing is cement so i guess we'll just have to wait.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 May 2008)

adamim while I don't disagree with you I would second what Rocketmna is saying to put it into context, it looks like it was just profit taking, you have to remember that the stock has put on 100% in a less than a month I was picking up some around $1 early April I  remember

As I have said as well its hard to compare RWD to MAK, ie just because A does something doesn't mean B will, RWD is Potash and MAK is Phosphate, 2 different commodities both Agriculutre but different

I was a little bit surprised at the volatility of how it dropped below $2 then shot back up then dropped towards the close, might be getting pushed around me thinks


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## adamim1 (1 May 2008)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> adamim while I don't disagree with you I would second what Rocketmna is saying to put it into context, it looks like it was just profit taking, you have to remember that the stock has put on 100% in a less than a month I was picking up some around $1 early April I  remember
> 
> As I have said as well its hard to compare RWD to MAK, ie just because A does something doesn't mean B will, RWD is Potash and MAK is Phosphate, 2 different commodities both Agriculutre but different
> 
> I was a little bit surprised at the volatility of how it dropped below $2 then shot back up then dropped towards the close, might be getting pushed around me thinks




Would there be any relationship between RWD and MAK share prices simply because both are used in fertilisers? I understand that they're completely different companies, but could MAK success run off onto RWD (due to excitement)? Or am i completely off the ball?

Sorry new to investing.


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## gfresh (1 May 2008)

Plenty of buyers still coming in .. or may have fallen significantly further today. Larger buy/sell spread has been forming. 

Next major support level seems to be $1.60 area.. Chart below shows what appear to be the main support levels. Not dissimilar pattern to MAK, although MAK buyers seems to be thinning.

(sorry, it has seemed to have shrunk my chart a little, making it difficult to read)


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## shaunm (1 May 2008)

I was watching the way it would hit on or just below the $2 mark then go back up again. I am of the opinion (not that is with any authority) that with the amount of buying in at around this level, we can expect support around the 190-2.00 price.
I got flushed out of my stop-loss at 1.31 and didn't buy back in as I thought it was going to go down, it didn't, and I have been kicking myself all the way to $2 . I'll be showing a bit more faith this time with no stop-loss.


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## adamim1 (1 May 2008)

gfresh said:


> Plenty of buyers still coming in .. or may have fallen significantly further today. Larger buy/sell spread has been forming.
> 
> Next major support level seems to be $1.60 area.. Chart below shows what appear to be the main support levels. Not dissimilar pattern to MAK, although MAK buyers seems to be thinning.
> 
> (sorry, it has seemed to have shrunk my chart a little, making it difficult to read)




Maybe support dropping for MAK because it may have lost all drive to go above $3 at this present time.


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## tech/a (1 May 2008)

I think many had their trailing stop at $2.Mine like others is automatically set on a conditional bracket order with IB. So at $2 I and a few others got sold very quickly in the market so price belted down filling us and a few that panicked.
I suffered a little slippage.(2.5c) Bugga. In hindsite it was a dumb level should have been say 2.03 is.

The concerning factor is the in ability for price to hold and thin trading with a wide pread indicates lack of buyers.

Initially Im expecting price to fall to the Blue diamond,If it turns quickly then it means Wave 3 will not be complete (3 bars or so). I do expect this to be a fairly quick corrective move that is likely to comprise of 3 waves down
2 down and one up. So lets see how that goes. I'll be waiting for a possible enter to the last wave 5 after the completion of this wave 4 if thats what it is turning into.
Ive hand drawn the chart for clarity.

Very high volume at tops shows weakness
Very high volume at bottoms shows strength.
Just one thing on people like me who take profit.
We see ourselves as Profit *PROTECTORS* not takers.
If we can see weakness we dont wish to be a part of it.
Each to their own.


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## d_crome (2 May 2008)

Tech/a - I stand here humbled and corrected by your analysis.

You were indeed right, but was this the correction you were expecting or is this simply mild profit taking?  Per your charts are you anticipating a rentry in the mid 1.6's?

I sometimes forget that there's investors and traders, both have very different priorities and constraints - it all depends upon your point of view.


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## tech/a (2 May 2008)

d_crome said:


> Tech/a - I stand here humbled and corrected by your analysis.
> 
> You were indeed right, but was this the correction you were expecting or is this simply mild profit taking?  Per your charts are you anticipating a rentry in the mid 1.6's?
> 
> I sometimes forget that there's investors and traders, both have very different priorities and constraints - it all depends upon your point of view.




Yes this is true.
Nothing wrong with becoming an investor in a continually rising stock---ironically most become investors in falling stocks (dont wish to crystalise the loss!!).

With short term analysis its a day by day thing.
I do have intraday charts so have an edge as I can and do use similar analysis on 60 min to 2 hr charts. Volume is the key to the success of these smaller timeframe analysis.

To your question.
Today will test the low and will indicate wether there are solid numbers of buyers out there. I expect an indise day in other words price to remain within the range of yesterdays wide ranging bar. Volume and range of todays bar will tell a great deal.

If I see onything on the intraday charts of interest I'll post it up.
Will be watching myself.


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## tech/a (2 May 2008)

Inside day as expected.

RWD currently looks OK. Technically.
Not convinced yet that this is ready to resume but is looking more like a pause in the current move than a correction.
Supply appears to be being absorbed.
Looking for a dry up of volume without much testing of the low.
Or breakout volume with good range.
Next 2 or three days trading will tell a lot for short term traders like myself.


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## pattyp (2 May 2008)

Controversial opinion time 

I think we wont go very far either way until the Cap Raising is locked in... And Im betting the idea has already been circulated with the buyers at a price between 160c/180c.

I hold a few of these (actually one of my main 2008 plays). Been buying regularly since 1buc... But I got an inc'ling that we will be in limbo for a little while.

But - Big picture - this cap raising is gonna send RWD to the moon, but not until market get all the details.

Though, I wouldn't be unhappy if i'm WAY wrong about this 

Pat


----------



## Markcoinoz (3 May 2008)

Here are the updated pricing and reports for fertiliser.

http://www.fertilizer-index.com/

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertrepor...ket-050108.pdf

Cheers markcoinoz


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## Birdster (5 May 2008)

Interesting article in today's "The Australian Business"

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23644000-18261,00.html

It does mention RWD, but note the 6th paragraph.


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## Spineli (7 May 2008)

Any tecchies out there care to comment on the recent downward movement of Reward's share price...a chart would be nice


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## tech/a (7 May 2008)

Pretty much to plan nothing much to add to the charts produced.
However the increased volume today is worrying for those long.
The day before was very low volume closing higher but shows lack of buying support.


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## pattyp (7 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> Controversial opinion time
> 
> I think we wont go very far either way until the Cap Raising is locked in... And I'm betting the idea has already been circulated with the buyers at a price between 160c/180c.
> 
> ...




Spineli,

I PERSONALLY don't think its a matter for technical or fundamental... We have a Cap Raising hanging over us and no one wants to buy or sell until its done... Or at least until we get the details. Although, maybe a surprise supply agreement with India would change the situation some 

The SHAW report valued RWD at 175c (Extremely conservatively IMO)... So I would expect that the Instos who get the issue will want in below that price.

So Cap Raising at 160-180, ergo, price needs to stay around 2buc for now.

Just my opinion - Would also love to hear other opinions, preferably really bullish ones... LoL

Pat


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## pattyp (7 May 2008)

*China Potash Shortage
*
Sinofert sees China potash shortage; eyes early contract
Tue May 6, 2008 3:37am EDT

HONG KONG, May 6 (Reuters) - Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), China's largest distributor of imported fertilisers, expects a shortage of up to 3 million tonnes of potash this year in China after imports fell by about half and tight supplies pushed prices significantly higher.

China could have a shortfall of up to a quarter of its total demand of 11-12 million tonnes of potash this year, and Sinofert hopes to sign an import agreement much earlier in 2009 to secure supplies of the nutrient, the company's senior vice president, Harry Yang, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

China is the world's largest fertiliser market and the biggest importer for potash, which is used to boost crop yields.

Its importers agreed in April to pay more than triple what they did a year ago -- or as much as $670 per tonne, analysts say -- to secure potash supplies, but overall imports still fell about half from last year.

"We expect the tight supply of potash around the world to remain in 2009. We will try to secure our 2009 import contracts at an early date," Yang said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSHKG15129920080506


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## shaunm (8 May 2008)

Interesting article, thanks.
RWD have a BFS planned for the end of the year, so will they be in a position to commit to the chinese with some resource in 2009?
I could not see on the latest presentation where they stated the date of first production would be.
Either way, shortages like this and RWD looking like the prime potash co. in Australia should bode well for the holders.


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## pattyp (9 May 2008)

HANDS UP THOSE WHO COUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE ???????

PAT DID! ! ! WOOT WOOT ! ! !

A gift from the brokers... Giving me another chance to buy at Cap Raising Price


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## tech/a (9 May 2008)

This is a 90 min chart of RWD.
Currently there is no conviction in buying pressure so prices at this point are unlikely to regain upward momentum.
You could be a little premature.
Todays low will be tested when it is we will know more about where RWD is technically.
Knives and trading generally mean someone gets hurt.
But hey you may well be Bruce Lee!


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## pattyp (9 May 2008)

Ha ha ha - Well aware of the charts tech.

No fear of the knife here... I have no intention to sell until PotAsh prices begin to taper-off... I think the Cap Raising will be around 160c and the price will swing around a bit until thats clear. I have more ammo to buy again at  the next level down ... 

This co. being the biggest and really the only Aussie PotAsh play helps me sleep soundly 

But to everyone else... You should def listen to tech/a because I'm just crazy!

Pat


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## tech/a (12 May 2008)

How's Bruce Lee going?
Knives not a weapon I believe in playing with.

Would rather have them in my hand than trying to catch them.


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## pattyp (12 May 2008)

Oh how I LOVE TA people... Masters of gloating and it doesn't matter which forum u are reading... Always the same.

RWD is still profitable according to my porfolio...

And since I bought at 163 last week and its at 157, I'm down 6c on that buy... OH NO ! ! !

Ready to BUY again at 140c, next key zone...


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## adamim1 (12 May 2008)

Well, i have some in at 1.59 and some in at 2.04. Starting to wonder whether I should cut my losses on the 2.04 and buy in again at a cheaper price.


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## shaunm (12 May 2008)

I am in a similar position so my average buy price is 1.89.
At this stage I will hold as I keep referring to the share price of that Gutnik bloke's potash company in the states which is huge, plus RWD have so far the biggest potash resource in Australia.
Why take a loss unless you really need to free up your funds?


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## pattyp (12 May 2008)

***********************************
**Theoretical Discounted Cash Flow**

Risk Ratio @ 60% of Free Cash Flow

8yr Time Line

200kt/pa Ramp to 400kt/pa by yr 7

Avg PotAsh price of $500p/ton

Avg OPEX Cost Per ton $240

CAPEX $150m (60d / 40e) Debt Paid in 7yrs

Free Cash Flows of $50m/pa (Fair Value MCap $500m)

Risk Offset Free Cash Flows $30m/pa (Fair Value MCap $300m)
***********************************

Currently RWD has 68m Shares (Diluted), MCap of $107m

Lets add some future dilution, say +40mil shares

Risk Offset $300m / 108m = $2.77 per share.

I still see HUGE value here - No matter what your charts tell you.

DYOR - I'm no expert, this is just my un-educated guess!

Pat


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## adamim1 (12 May 2008)

Hmmm....

I think I'll hang on.... I'm not trading massive amounts. Though i have another 5k to put on and i'm thinking about putting it in RWD.

Do they have a production date? I haven't seen it anywhere...


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## tech/a (12 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> HANDS UP THOSE WHO COUGHT THE FALLING KNIFE ???????
> 
> PAT DID! ! ! WOOT WOOT ! ! !
> 
> A gift from the brokers... Giving me another chance to buy at Cap Raising Price




Gloating?

All forms of analysis are simply wrong until proven correct.
The sooner people realise that its not a competition between analysis types but about being profitable.

I may well be crazy but to seea stake drop 25% and do NOTHING about it as I'm sure many have---just isnt good business.


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## pattyp (12 May 2008)

Dude - I dropped the issue and didn't come back... You came out today and had a dig...

I'm in no competition and I didn't challenge your opinion - In fact I agreed with your original comment...??

I don't understand you... Should I follow you around and hound you on your stocks...? No way!

You didn't even post a chart and explain your analysis... At least I have posted my DCF.


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## kenny (12 May 2008)

Watching from the sidelines at this stage and waiting for a reason to pull the trigger. I'm happy to hear the TA view as well as the FA anytime. My sense of market timing is terrible so please feel free to post when the knives go clattering onto the floor 

This article is about Phosphate but the reasoning is the same.

Cheers,

Kenny


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-18261,00.html



> Phosphate latest craze for investors
> 
> PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby | May 12, 2008
> 
> ...


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## pattyp (12 May 2008)

LoL -  I must have caught a case of the "Lanstrom Luck Virus"!

That was a VERY nice close... I though I'd be filling my 140c 4 sure!

Can't be bothered posting a chart, but looks like lots of buying at these levels. Slight increase in volume and a close on high for the day. Candles look like a hammer formation, but we need tomorrow to confirm. Two long wicks have formed, could be considered a tweezers bottom. All this in a key support zone.

Jury is out until tomorrow - Hope for confirmation candle.

So far my 163c buy looks ok and within tollerance.

Cheers all,
Pat


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## kenny (13 May 2008)

This may be a positive for RWD's valuation. Anglo Minerals was just another Nevada gold speccie until they changed their name in February.

Cheers,

Kenny



> BHP to buy Canada potash partner for $300m
> 
> Reuters
> 
> ...


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## pattyp (13 May 2008)

In play...
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/05/12/afx4997255.html

*BHP Billiton agrees purchase of Anglo Potash at C$8.15 per share or C$284 mln*

" LONDON (Thomson Financial) - BHP Billiton Plc., said it has entered into a definitive agreement to buy Anglo Potash Ltd. for C$284 million at C$8.15 per share, in cash."


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## pattyp (13 May 2008)

DOH!!!

Sorry Kenny... 

You musta been posting at same time as me... LoL!

Its Good news and a great indicator.

Pat


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## kenny (13 May 2008)

no problems, pat!

Good to see RWD responding to positively today. A bit more volume wouldn't hurt either.

Cheers,

Kenny


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## pattyp (13 May 2008)

Now that was a DARN FINE day!

What can I say... I'm speachless...

BUT - I don't think I like the gap and candle today produced... Hmmmm!

Engineered sell pressure to manipulate the candle maybe...? They want to keep it low for the Cap Raising... Will be interesting to watch this play out!

IMO - RWD is a highly under valued stock, even when u factor in risk... Let the good times roll on ( I hope  )

Pat


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## tech/a (13 May 2008)

Bruce.

Corrections come in 3 waves.
We have 1 and 2 is in progress.
Not expecting this to reach $2 before reversing again.
The higher this goes before reversing the more likely it is to range.
I expect the low of $1.55 to be taken out.
Its actually a doji.
Low volume indicates a lack of commitment from buyers.
As does the lack of range in the bar.

This may well reach $3 but currently there is no indication technically.
It needs to complete this wave 4 correction.


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## pattyp (13 May 2008)

Not only do I agree that technically its weaker then I'd like (would have liked a better shaped candle and with volume), I personally don't think it will go to above 2buc on the fundamentals... Cap Raising hangs over.

No way on the planet can you value this business at 1.50... But short term technicals point to it going down again... This is as bigger 'no brainer' as I've seen.

All a drop in price means to me is an opportunity to buy more. 

Short term 25% seems like bad business to you - 25% long term is buying opportunity for me. Not buying is bad business in my opinion as a buy on the retrace equals multiples within my longer term target. 

Appreciate your opinion on the technicals. And I do invite the practical analysis if you want to share it. I'm not in a competition, I just don't like criticism without discussion.

Cheers,
Pat


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## adamim1 (13 May 2008)

Any guess on what it will reach in this correction?  I bought in again today at 1.85, want to make a small profit, and then buy in again if it decides to reverse.


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## pattyp (13 May 2008)

Dangerous game Adamim... I would have waited for todays candle to confirm the reversal, then bought tomorrow (If i was short term).

IMO - It looks like a dead-cat bounce... I don't see it going below 165c... Until it goes past 165c LoL... Then maybe 140c is my target zone... But if it closes the gap tomorrow/Thursday and moves up with volume then i'd say its a reversal...

I'm not in the business of predicting bottoms, or tops... I predict business value and then buy dips that reach the support zones... 

I have almost no intention to sell RWD... EVER!

Good Luck.
Pat


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## adamim1 (13 May 2008)

pattyp said:


> Dangerous game Adamim... I would have waited for todays candle to confirm the reversal, then bought tomorrow (If i was short term).
> 
> IMO - It looks like a dead-cat bounce... I don't see it going below 165c... Until it goes past 165c LoL... Then maybe 140c is my target zone... But if it closes the gap tomorrow/Thursday and moves up with volume then i'd say its a reversal...
> 
> ...




Thats what i was thinking. I mean i'm not too worried as i eventually see this going a lot higher. But if it goes down further i guess I'll just wait it out. ****ty thing is I wil be working without a computer tomorrow. I guess I'll get my missus to do the work.


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## pattyp (14 May 2008)

Glad to see this one up again today... But in all honesty its making me nervous...

Very interested to see the close, I expect it to be sold off.

All the same, at this point, my 163c buy is looking very good!

Pat


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## tech/a (14 May 2008)

Bruce.

No sellers apparent---YET.
Soft volume good range.
This is about where I thought you'd start seeing resistance.


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## pattyp (14 May 2008)

I LOVE todays chart - Although the LACK of volume and the CAP RAISING still worries me and hinders me from getting too excited!

Here is a PAT CHART... I think We have "maybe" just seen a break away gap... Similar to early April ( Except that was on an Announcement??? )... Hard to tell, this stock is very illiquid!

Interesting to watch this play out... May have triggered a few TA Buys, but I'm not convinced until its over LoL!

Pat


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## kenny (14 May 2008)

Thanks for the chart Pat and the comments tech/a. Always appreciate the educational bits on ASF.

tech/a, do you mind expanding a little on the "good range" comment please?

Here I am on the sidelines waiting for below $1.60 (OK, I might be delusional) thinking it will drift down there.

Thanks in advance,

Kenny


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## pattyp (14 May 2008)

http://business.smh.com.au/bhp-eyes-potash-miner-20080513-2dvm.html

*BHP eyes potash miner*

"With Russia tending to export to Brazil, China is one of the natural markets for Canadian potash exports. Potash use is rising in tandem with the industrialisation of emerging economies because it tends to be used more as median incomes and diets improve.

During a results briefing last month, Bill Doyle, the head of the world's largest potash exporter, Canada's PotashCorp, presented a bullish outlook for the fertiliser.

Mr Doyle said the potash price, which recently rose $US200 a tonne to $US735 a tonne, was heading towards $US1000 a tonne and was expected to remain high in the future.

Anglo Potash last week said the $US2.5-billion Saskatchewan joint venture with BHP would provide a 42 per cent return on investment if the potash price averaged $US625 a tonne. It added that returns would double to 84 per cent and the project would pay for itself within about 14 months if the potash price averaged $US1150 a tonne.

"There's no new greenfield production coming on anywhere in the world in the next five years," Mr Doyle said, noting the Chinese were expected to be 3 million tonnes short of supply this year.

"The bottom line is that the world needs more potash, and this is likely to continue for the foreseeable future."


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## tech/a (15 May 2008)

kenny said:


> Thanks for the chart Pat and the comments tech/a. Always appreciate the educational bits on ASF.
> 
> tech/a, do you mind expanding a little on the "good range" comment please?
> 
> ...




The bar is quite wide.
meaning that the small number of buyers that there were had to search higher for sellers to fill orders. This is a good sign although it lacks conviction for longterm price growth.Unless we can see a high volume bar with sellers absorbed.The next bar would then be telling.

Any bars which lack range and see a great increase in volume indicate sellers have returned.
If you look at past growth spurts there was initial volume pushing through those sellers---wider range.
THEN volume dropped off as prices either fell a little or went sideways only to be booted again when buyers returned.

The same pattern is happening now however the low volume moving forward isnt convincing.
I think it will take quite some effort to push price past the $2-2.08 figure.
The strength of this move will be proven here.

Bruce has done very well on his knife catching.


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## pattyp (15 May 2008)

tech/a said:


> Bruce has done very well on his knife catching.




Thanks tech - I'll take that as a compliment... 

But we all know the outcome of my buy was pure fluke... I didn't buy because I had any TA buy signal or could see a reversal. I buy because i'm a methodical accumulator of FA stocks I'm EXTREMELY bullish on. I would have accumulated in my buy zones all the way down... On that note, I NEVER double up, I buy at a qty that is appropriate to reduce my VWAP by an attractive (But not risky) percentage.

Today, volume still stinks - The CAP RAISING Effect looks to have taken hold...

My call - Yo, yo between 180-200 until its all over red rover.... Or... Until 180 or 200 breaks 

Just my opinion...

Pat


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## pattyp (15 May 2008)

WOW !

The volume has become ridiculously low... 30% < Avg.

This could go on FOREVER!

AGM Friday 30th May... Counting down the days...

Pat


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## tech/a (16 May 2008)

Bruce.
As expected---did you chuck the knife?
Or add it to your kitchen?
Yeh I know in it for the long haul.
Might be a while as this price action with such a deep correction indicates the possibility of longer term ranging.


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## pattyp (16 May 2008)

No knife chucking, no more catching... Time to rest... Range bound IMO.

Cap Raising needs to close. AGM 30th, will be waiting beyond then... Tech & Volume weak, But i still think it will be propped and capped in this zone.

180-200... Until it beaks either way 

Cheers - Love your work


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## tech/a (24 May 2008)

Behaving pretty well to "Plan".
Thois is likely to fall to its most recient low.
Further analysis then.


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## kenny (24 May 2008)

Thanks Pat and tech,

Still waiting in the wings on this one as it tracks (hopefully) in a sideways range.

At what price point would it be considered breaking into downtrend? Around the $1.60's that I mentioned was the level I would be interested 

Cheers,

Kenny


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## pattyp (24 May 2008)

Technically, would want to touch the 155c-165c zone again, bounce to form a lower high, then back down and break through the 155 support... Then I'd call it a prolonged down trend with a chance of seeing 100c...

Would be a shame if the price is allowed to sustain low levels... DCF says 150c is as low as we would like the Cap Raising price to be...

IMO - RWD needs to get the 20-mil issued at 150c+.

Stick to the technicals until the Cap. Raising is over... After that forget "Down Trends"... This dog will run hard.

Will likely reach recent lows but again be bought hard from there.

RWD is a friggen Aussie monopoly, no other JORC Potash... 50yr mine life.

Just my opinion - DYOR, etc, etc...

Pat


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## pattyp (24 May 2008)

Great Article posted by Yellowcake on HC.... Thanks YC.

Well worth the read!

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=537032&p=1

*The Hungry Planet*
*Is fertilizer the 'most important business on Earth?'*
Sean Silcoff, Financial Post  Published: Saturday, May 24, 2008

VIENNA -It's the hottest commodity that nobody cared about. Until now. In the midst of a global food crisis, governments and investors are waking up to fertilizer and its soaring prices. Financial Post reporter Sean Silcoff attended this week's International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) conference in Vienna, where the debate rages: Are fertilizer producers the solution to the world's food crisis or part of the problem?


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## kenny (25 May 2008)

Thanks tech and Pat.

From memory, the April Shaw report was assuming $1.20 as the cap raising price. I don't recall reading why they made that assumption. At that price, wouldn't one have to expect more dilution of more of the financing to be done via debt?

Pat, what was the basis for your thought that the cap raising should be $1.50? DCF & NPV based on Shaw's data (14.4% WACC etc and free cash flow coming online in 2011)?

Looking forward to both your analyses.

Regards,

Kenny


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## pattyp (25 May 2008)

G'Day Kenny,

It’s all speculation - But my business case works best if I do a 20/80 CAPEX split... Minimal dilution and manageable debt that can be paid over 8yrs.

So I assume CAPEX at $150m... 

20,000,000 x 150c = $30m + $120,00,000 Debt. = $150,000,000.

They may have to do a second cap. raising later if they choose less debt option. But this is less optimal in my opinion (Or shareholder p-o-v).

Shaw say $80m at 120... That means RWD has to issue 67m extra shares. The less dilution we get, the better obviously.

Here is the latest revision of my DCF:

-------------------------------------
-= 10yr DCF =-
-------------------------------------
Prod. Ramp (200x2yr, 300x3yr, 400x5yr)
Avg Price per ton $500
Avg Cost per ton $220
CAPEX 150m (20% eq / 80% De)
Debt Paid off in 8yrs (Avg $18m p/yr)
95m Shares w/future full dilution
EBT Avg: $73m p/yr
Free Cash Flow Avg: $50m p/yr

Fair Value: MC $683,142,955, SP $7.22, f-PE 9

NPV 10%: MCap $315,792,140.09, SP $3.34, f-PE 4

And maybe Avg 30c p/yr dividend if we are lucky 
-------------------------------------

I have attached an extract from Shaws for comparison sake:
http://www.rewardminerals.com/index.php?option=com_remository&Itemid=3&func=startdown&id=109

Notable Difference is I ramp to 400ktpa, Shaw only ramp to 200ktpa.

Cheers,
Pat


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## pattyp (26 May 2008)

The bollingers (So far) have indicated the max extensions near perfectly.

Volume continues to be very week... RSI also displays clear weakness.

Pay attention to the Elliott Wave patten... Its playing out like a script! I think RWD needs to bounce up again(4), fall down again(5) and then a possible new uptrend.

And when u think about timing... AGM followed shortly by Cap. Raising announcement... The Elliot Wave will fit nicely.


----------



## kenny (26 May 2008)

Thanks Pat. I appreciate both the FA and TA replies.

I think the somewhat low number of shares would make it rather tempting for the management to control debt and go the path of a rights issue etc.

Any debt will hopefully be knocked down by the anticipated cashflow so divvy's might be a while coming. 

I agree with you in saying the significant difference in calcs to Shaw is the ramp up. Doesn't it give the val a real kicker in the last couple of years?

I need to bone up on Elliot wave analysis but I follow the logic regarding the AGM vote and subsequent announcements. I was thinking this was one of the factors causing the low trading volume.

Regards,

Kenny


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## pattyp (26 May 2008)

kenny said:


> I think the somewhat low number of shares would make it rather tempting for the management to control debt and go the path of a rights issue etc.




Cheers Kenny,

And this is possible... But I think about what a 50%-60% increase in stock may do to the share price... I'd say it will halve the value of my shares. And not just my Shares... Our "Dr Michael Ruane PhD" shares... Decisions in this Coy are being made by a serious share holder... Very good news!

They will have to be extremely strategic in the way they build capital... This 20mil issue right now will only raise a small part of the required funds and yet it will dilute our stock by 30%... To make CAPEX through Raisings it will hurt us more then help... Well, thats what I think anyway 

Lake Disapointment at 400ktpa is excellent... Imagine if a couple of their other highly prospecive sites show up some goods...?

Just my opinion, no expert, no recommendation... DYOR, etc

Pat


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## tech/a (26 May 2008)

Bruce.

Dont like your wave count--as good as my Funny mentals.

Think this wave 4 is still in progress and not yet complete.
If the low is taken out and this becomes a 5 wave correction and not a 3 then this will languish for sometime.


----------



## pattyp (26 May 2008)

tech!

Don't like your colors LoL!

Count fits nice, I like it... 2-3 as Extended Wave... Interesting.

IMO - 4 Unlikely to break 150c.

Wave 4-5 should take the price to 250c. This Wave Count is a better fit for my funny-mental price targets 

Quote: "If the low is taken out and this becomes a 5 wave correction and not a 3 then this will languish for sometime."

Funny-mentals, being timing of pending announcements, would indicate a 3-wave correction, not 5-wave...

Though if the outcomes are not favourable... 5 likely!

We'll see...


----------



## kenny (28 May 2008)

G'day Pat & tech,

I'm trying to find something to explain the significance between a "5 wave correction" and a "3 wave" version.

Today's action is reinforcing the notion of a corrective phase and a general cooling off of the sector. MAK is feeling the pain certainly. Both are relatively illiquid and there's probably been a drift of funds to whatever sector is "hot" (like coal for instance) by short term players.

Unless I've missed something, there has been no change to fundamentals but I am finding it hard to buy back in today (which must explain the "N00b" sign on my forehead).

Watching with interest and guessing at a support.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## pattyp (28 May 2008)

Kenny,

RWD and XJO TA Looks sick...

RWD FA remains same, but improves everyday because we get closer to production. AGM Friday...

Will do RWD chart later tonight.

Pat


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## kenny (28 May 2008)

Hi Pat,

I guess we'll be seeing how resilient the support is for RWD in the face of a sick XJO. Anyone here planning to go to the AGM?

Regards,

Kenny


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## tech/a (28 May 2008)

Bruce.

Heavens above its actually doing as I expected .

You still got that knife?
You going to catch another?

You know you'd be expecting price to RISE in anticipation of a good AGM wouldnt you?
Ever thought the fall in price maybe related to anticipation of the AGM?

Holding for announcements.
Risssskky business.

Trade the market.


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## pattyp (28 May 2008)

tech,

Holding for announcements...? Don't think so... Holding for Production...

No buys here - I already bought here... Next Buy is 140s... Sticking to the plan.

And being a day trader - You may have noticed that most of the market was down today... And probably again tomorrow. And the few days before...

Have never told you that u r wrong, not sure why u keep acting like  I have...? Have agreed with you 90% of the time... Even re-charted based on your opinion.

I'm meeting you on TA level - Maybe you should take what I have given and have a read about the PotAsh Market in Aus. and look at RWD as more then a share price picture...?

I don't trade the market - I invest in business.


----------



## tech/a (29 May 2008)

Bruce.

I have no doubt your take on RWD from a fundamental view is compelling,infact have read a lot with interest here.

We both have different styles. I'm short term rather than day.--Currently.
Techtrader long term system is still running but I havent traded longterm for 12 mths.

Just having a dig adds some interest to a boring thread of various analysis.
No personal attack meant!


----------



## pattyp (29 May 2008)

tech/a said:


> Bruce.
> 
> I have no doubt your take on RWD from a fundamental view is compelling,infact have read a lot with interest here.
> 
> ...




Understood - And digs are ok... In 12-months I'm sure I'll have a DIG also... Maybe... We'll see 

Just starting to feel like there is no "Respect"... I hang about on these forums so that I can bounce ideas off people like yourself... "Alternative" style traders. But I don't hang "Sh_t" on you about it... Just want you respect my technique for investing (not day trading).

Cheers!


----------



## adamim1 (29 May 2008)

everything was down yesterday, I just relate RWD following the market. Its not like it hasn't been here recently... it was only @ 1.55 about 2 or so weeks ago.


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## pattyp (29 May 2008)

Getting nervous... Time is running out... We are reaching - IMO - a very critical area on the chart...

My LT MAs are close to a dead-cross... Last few times they crossed (Dec07, Feb08) it was prolonged trend as the outcome... If this happens, Knife Catching may go on hold.

One might call todays candle a bullish-harami... Not perfect. Maybe a bounce...? Maybe fall another 10%...? It is VERY oversold now...

Seems that MAK and RWD are following each others tails all the way up and down.

AGM tomorrow...

Pat


----------



## Adam A (30 May 2008)

Announcement out ,reads well

Sorry still havent learnt how to post link,(this weekend for sure )


----------



## pattyp (30 May 2008)

Bullish Harami confirmed - Although on pathetic volume...

Needs to break my down-trend ASAP... This week should be very interesting.

Chart still looks evil... Won’t go into details... Don't want to scare anyone LoL!

All in all - Chart is sick, but by my expectations this week the fundamentals should take over the price action... If not... We’ll suffer longer us mere peons!

Pat


----------



## adamim1 (2 June 2008)

Looks like shes on her way back up. $1.785 was the last price - up 7.5%. 

Looks like a good sign.


----------



## pattyp (3 June 2008)

Don't like todays candle...

IMO - Two possible scenarios from here...

Down or Up... Thats (Always) the BIG question isn't it... LoL!

Pat


----------



## gfresh (4 June 2008)

I think general attention on the agri sector, and fundamentals may just carry it through from much further falls.. 

This table says it all with regard to potash.. 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=54076&sn=Detail

To be honest, I'm a little surprised RWD is not priced much much higher presently, being one of the supposedly largest untapped Potash sources in Australia - and no other potash producers here. You have something that is in large worldwide demand, cost to produce, and even get into production is much lower than many forms of traditional mining, NO local producers (as compared to iron ore, coal, etc where there are deposits a-plenty), and yet RWD doesn't get ranked? market is strange sometimes. 

Mining is also not far off production (2010 or so) by their own estimates. I remember reading there are a few potential sources out there worldwide, but getting them into production can take several years. 

Stocks such as STB (tenement right next door to RWD's lake disappointmnets) running 33% during May, whereas Reward actually dropped 20% in this period.


----------



## pattyp (4 June 2008)

gfresh said:


> To be honest, I'm a little surprised RWD is not priced much much higher presently, being one of the supposedly largest untapped Potash sources in Australia - and no other potash producers here.




I 100% agree with u GFresh... The mind Boggles! 

Right now RWD has a monopoly, and by production will still have a monopoly within Aus...

The price will eventually reflect the situation...

Pat

PS. See the NA performance... Aussies are just slow to warm up.


----------



## pattyp (5 June 2008)

Haven't posted a chart in a few days... Here is my latest...

Love the RWD chart... Seems to be very "Text Book".

In my opinion anyway 

Pat


----------



## tech/a (5 June 2008)

Bruce

Is there a price chart in there?
--------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## kenny (5 June 2008)

Nice chart Pat but could you post a quick guide on what it displays for fools like me please?

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## pattyp (5 June 2008)

kenny said:


> Nice chart Pat but could you post a quick guide on what it displays for fools like me please?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Kenny




Kenny - Start here....

http://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm

"Elliott's main discovery was that market behavior could be identified and measured through a repeating eight wave sequence, consisting of 5 waves that he called "impulsive," followed by a 3-wave "corrective" sequence.  Impulse waves are labeled numerically 1 through 5, corrective waves are labeled A, B and C, as per the following example"


----------



## pattyp (5 June 2008)

tech/a said:


> Bruce
> 
> Is there a price chart in there?
> --------------------------------------------------------------




LoL - I know... I got very carried away... U gotta admit that its pretty 

I find it amazing how much the price has bounced around on the trends in the grid... And also how nice the Elliott Wave(s) have developed...

Looks to have broken free of the down trend (Closed outside twice) ... Though promptly reversed with a PERFECT shooting star...

Still... I believe its out of the danger-zone for a 5-wave bear trend...

Feeling optimistic at this stage.

Pat


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2008)

Bruce.

While the larger count I agree with---

You need to do some work on your Elliott Wave.

2 of the most basic rules in Elliott theory are not followed in your labelling.
(1) Wave 4 cannot fall below Wave 1
(2) Wave 3 cannot be the shotest wave.

May I respectfully suggest you read 

Dynamic Trading By Robert Miner.
ISBN 0-934380-83-X

For more advanced reading.
Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting any Market.
Geoff Greenbaltt
ISBN13 978-1-59280-59280-268-5

For Software the most advanced in my view is Advanced Get.
Tad expensive for most.


----------



## pattyp (7 June 2008)

tech/a said:


> Bruce.
> 
> While the larger count I agree with---
> 
> ...





Ah yes - Fair enough! Bit sloppy of me... 

Have without a doubt read the "basics", but admittedly I am not as thorough as perhaps should be when drawing up charts... Its my guide not my gospel. Likely stems from the fact I don't short-term trade - Therefore less care is taken.

Anyway, have already posted my DCFs and opinion on the Potash markets in Aus. and abroad, so nothing further to add from me. I'll rely on and leave it up-to your expertise hence forth. 

Please keep the ASF RWD crew up-to-date with the shorter term picture.

Cheers.
Pat


----------



## kenny (10 June 2008)

Back from the weekend to find such a welcoming market.

Thanks for the link Pat. I learn something every time you or tech/a make a post. Usually revolves around how much more I need to learn.

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## pattyp (13 June 2008)

I had no intention of posting anymore RWD charts - But I just cant help myself... Love it too much...

Looks awesome, volume picking up, RSI trending up, MAs never crossed and are also trending up again... Price WELL outside down-trend.

I'm calling it... EW-5 is upon us... 250c min. target before the next correction... in my opinion.

Cheers,
Pat

PS. Can't keep a quality stock down - Even in a bad market.


----------



## gog246 (14 June 2008)

Can the ew 5 be manipulated , i posted this on another forum but would like your opinion 
As much as I was expecting the rise & volume & welcome it but why did it happen on fri with no ann, bit of a surprise.
  Was there a meeting with the Martu people & a few loose lips or was it BNB money gone RWD way or drilling results elsewhere 
or the placement has happened & the shackles have been released & this is where the sp should have been a few weeks ago but was held down artificially.
  The world's potash company's share price has gone up almost  daily while rwd has gone side wise , are we now looking for a correction the other way (north), for a company so close to production of a unique product & only new company producing in the next 5 years should we expect the sp to be  ?          
    Would appreciate other thoughts out there .


----------



## adamim1 (16 June 2008)

Looks like a breakout today... 2.23!!!!

I'm glad i bought more in the lows a few weeks back.

Anyone have charts?


----------



## Sean K (16 June 2008)

adamim1 said:


> Looks like a breakout today... 2.23!!!!
> 
> I'm glad i bought more in the lows a few weeks back.
> 
> Anyone have charts?



Looks pretty good. No targets from me on this break. Just going up, up. Looks like some spec money flowing back to poo in the short term. Nice work if you're buying into the dips on this current bull sector.


----------



## pattyp (16 June 2008)

Its looking pretty good Ladies and Gents... 

Though I am strangely averse to LARGE jumps like this one... Too often get sold into in a big way...

Love RWD... Was Biggest no-brainer at any price under 200c... If you had a little patience and some guts 

Good Luck, hoping it holds the 220s into close.

YaY RWD!

Pat


----------



## pattyp (16 June 2008)

OMG - This is ridiculous...

*245c and 20%^*

Speeding ticket and/or trading halt soon one would expect...

Pat


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 June 2008)

Well the RWD share price has finall passed MAK's

Although I think MAK's Mkt Cap is still much larger,

Anyhoo after buying a swag around the $1 mark I finally took some profits today with my goal being to get a free carried position,

Another no brainer for a re-rating from the $1 level 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I was picking up some around $1 early April I  remember
> 
> As I have said as well its hard to compare RWD to MAK, ie just because A does something doesn't mean B will, RWD is Potash and MAK is Phosphate, 2 different commodities both Agriculutre but different
> 
> I was a little bit surprised at the volatility of how it dropped below $2 then shot back up then dropped towards the close, might be getting pushed around me thinks


----------



## shaunm (18 June 2008)

Wow another strong day for RWD.
For those that know how to do the T/A is this run likely to cotinue and have we found support well and truly over 2.10-2.20, or does the whole fibonacci thing sugest retrace to around $2. 
Enjoyng the ride but ot fully understanding it.


----------



## Sean K (18 June 2008)

shaunm said:


> Wow another strong day for RWD.
> For those that know how to do the T/A is this run likely to cotinue and have we found support well and truly over 2.10-2.20, or does the whole fibonacci thing sugest retrace to around $2.
> Enjoyng the ride but ot fully understanding it.



Faster they run up the less technical support on the way down. There are some bad examples of that kennas theory, but it's usually the case. 

Here's a chart with some random blue lines on it perhaps representing some support on the way back down. Just not sure how strong they will be, but expect a bump here and there.

RSI has been a little overbought but coming down on this chart and not out of the stratosphere. ADX in May was saying downtrend but just starting to move up through 20, maybe, indicates a new trend, which would be up. Have to wait and see on that one, as it's jumped up above stochs which is a short term trading sell signal.

So, anything can and will happen! 



Been a great pick up since the land owners decided money was better that culture, which was a no brainer.


----------



## pattyp (18 June 2008)

pattyp said:


> Looks awesome, volume picking up, RSI trending up, MAs never crossed and are also trending up again... Price WELL outside down-trend.
> 
> I'm calling it... EW-5 is upon us... 250c min. target before the next correction... in my opinion.




If you look back to my previous chart (I'll post a new one later)... I feel that it needs to fall back inside (Or at least closer to) My Wave-5 uptrend... Looks over-bought, but it also still looks/feels way under-valued.

Cheers,
Pat


----------



## pattyp (18 June 2008)

Ok - For what its worth (Obviously nothing) here is my chart and my opinion...

It totally blew away my previous Wave-5 channel but has neatly created a wider channel for us to work from...

Looks to be playing out my Wave-5 very well (Tech correct me if I'm wrong) but looks like we have hit sWave-3 within the larger Impulse.

Price from here IMO will close the gap at 204c, reject the 200c support (200c is conveniently approx. the Fib 50% zone retrace from recent high 245 / low 150).. Hence complete sWave-4, move into sWave-5 and possibly target 270c...

Or we may get some news (Good or Bad) that throws everything I have posted here out the window... LoL!

Just my guess anyway...

Pat


----------



## pattyp (20 June 2008)

Without a doubt - a very well behaved stock 

Little more downside maybe, but getting close to a bottom.

Cheers,
Pat


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## Plasmo (13 July 2008)

A little concerned by the recent price drop here - it doesn't really make sense to me either.

So I'm buying in hard, but doodoo is filling my pants based on the downward slope


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2008)

Ugly 6 weeks for RWD, looking similar to MAK. 

Just about to find some support around $1.15 ish ish. 

This news might help it out:

*Potash fetches record price as Asian demand grows*

Some buyers pay $1,000 per tonne for Canadian product

Reuters

Published: Thursday, July 17, 2008

WINNIPEG -- Canpotex, the export marketing consortium for Canadian potash miners, has raised its spot price for some Asian buyers to $1,000 per tonne, an analyst at J.P. Morgan said on Wednesday.


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## Sean K (25 July 2008)

kennas said:


> Ugly 6 weeks for RWD, looking similar to MAK.
> 
> Just about to find some support around $1.15 ish ish.



Lowly volume but the support was there. No sellers and the buyers chipping away slowly. The next decent bear rally, you might expect a decent run on this, pending other left field news, like the Martu renegging. Unlikely at this stage.


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2008)

RWD coming off on low volume caused by (IMO) the Martu dilly dallying about with the mining contract paperwork.



> The draft Mining Agreement was forwarded to WDLAC on the 6 May 2008. The Draft with requested Martu amendments was returned to Reward on 28 June 2008. Amendments agreed were made shortly after that and the document returned to WDLAC. At the time of reporting, the document was with WDLAC. The Company is disappointed with the time delays involved in having the documentation processed by WDLAC.




Pretty shoddy work by the Martu and it must be very frustrating for RWD.

I anticipate that once the green light is finally given, then the buyers may come back as they did on the original agreement by the Martu in Feb, all else being equal.

(not holding)


----------



## grizzly1 (12 August 2008)

Just shocking,,,,,,,,, that I bought some around two dollars,,, and now I just happen to notice Dr Michael Ruane owns nearly 50% of the shares on issue, having just bought 90K shares on market two days post someone exercising 20cent oppies,,,,,gee I wonder if thats related mmmmmmm,,,,,the other co he has a large stake  in is 30% of intermin (same business address, ??same staff ie RWD or intermin are two bit companies,,,, or kindly putting it,,,,,,, more correctly valued as per around 2006 07 market cap levels) and it's a one project company in pre development phase,,,,, ie plenty more dilution via share raisings,,, me thinks oppies galore will be issued,,,,, share price surge IF and ONLY IF Martu sign up will be time to quit......... I like their story,, ie Potash at Lake Disappointment and have read the shaw stockbrokers report mentioning $1.75 as a target but will be outa this one due to the broader market being volatile,,,,,,,, this same story in a different market would be a buy,,,,,,, but this current market has no patience,,,,,,, methinks there  will be chances to buy cheaper.


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## Sean K (21 August 2008)

I thought Ag and PM stocks would have been the only safe place during this catastrophe, but wrong again.

Can we assume that when buyers come back into the market that these will be the one's to run OK? Or, are the Four Horseman just going to nuke everything. Or, has the nuking been done? 

This chart looks much like MAK's. Distressed. To say the least.

On the watch list for the long anticipated turnaround, whenever that is. 2060?


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## kenny (22 August 2008)

Is this just a pause before more sliding? or the long awaited turnaround people are hoping for?

Has there been any more word on the Jinka Minerals spin off?

Cheers,

Kenny


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## bvbfan (24 August 2008)

grizzly1 said:


> the other co he has a large stake  in is 30% of intermin (same business address, ??same staff ie RWD or intermin are two bit companies,,,, or kindly putting it,,,,,,, more correctly valued as per around 2006 07 market cap levels)




Yep, definitely a two bit company. 
Only has about 800billion dollars worth of inground metal. I mean Intermin not Reward


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## jonojpsg (24 August 2008)

Hi all,
Might be worth noting that SmartInvestor magazine had the ag sector as the only one that might/should go contrary to the current market down trend.  Also in same edition there was a prediction that ASX200 would head down to 4180 then possibly even 3480

If so any sector that can go contrary is worth looking at!!!!


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## d_crome (28 August 2008)

Kennas - honestly - did anybody actually think this would go smoothly??

There was far too much money to be made on this deal, so there's probably a fair amount of finger pointing to go around.

The good news is that this is going to arbitration - even better news is RWD is going into arbitration WITH a prior offer based on goodwill that was initially accepted.  These will all be in the benefit of management.

The best part however is now we're on a set schedule, no more debates, delays, bargains or other tangents - a date will be set and a resolution will be issued.  This will be within a 6 to 12 month period - sure it's a step back if you're a day trader, but for the long term holder this is a much more desireable position to be in rather than having unknown variables such as Native Owner or particularly, Native Owner's ADVISERS holding things up to suit their schedule/agenda.

If I had the cash, I'd be loading up at these extremely low levels.  Any small amount of positive news (i.e. arbitration ruling, increase JORC etc) and the market will surely see this as a VERY minor, yet unfortunately, necessary path that RWD had to take.

Best of luck to holders.

And again - DYOR, just my opinions, I'm far from educated and if you lose your shirt it's your own D@mn fault.


----------



## J.B.Nimble (28 August 2008)

Extraordinary... what a sell down. 

Great to see MR play hard ball. The frustration was apparent in the quarterly report - no doubt it must have been even more apparent over the negotiating table. In spite of that the WDLAC have continued to push their luck after initially agreeing the deal - what an error of judgement. 

The interesting thing is that even with the frustrations and prospect of walking away, MR has continued to buy up. His last buy was noted several days after the venting of frustration in the quarterly, and at a price well north of where we ended today. This project is going to happen - perhaps not as quickly as some would have liked, but it will happen...

Couldn't resist the sell down - at last, I'm in...


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## shaunm (31 August 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Indeed.
> 
> I got badly burnt this morning as I'm sure I was the only idiot who bought at 1.205
> 
> ...




Count your blessings mate. I got stopped out at 1.30 a few months ago and bought back in at 1.80......not very rwding.
I'm definitely in for the long run.


----------



## adamim1 (2 September 2008)

I've got 2 buys both at $1.59 - which was great when it was 2.50++.

Im in for the long haul though.


----------



## d_crome (3 September 2008)

Managed to bring my average buy in now below $1 so I'm rather stoaked!

Definite mid to long on this - would NOT be suprised however if the NT's realize they let the cat out of the bag and scramble to sign the previous agreement with management.

RWD holding all the cards now...


----------



## Adam A (13 March 2009)

I just finished going thru the RWD thread makes for interesting reading.

The share price from 1st post at 0.80c up to nearly $3.00,now back to 0.40c

Director converted more options today

Potash prices seem to of held up thru all this doom and gloom

Anyone else holding?

I hold so am biased ( hopefully native title issues will be resolved soon)


----------



## Adam A (20 March 2009)

Last and final top up today.

Taking a punt that native title issues/problems  will be resolved soonish and that progress can continue?


----------



## shag (24 March 2009)

adam(BA law?), how about ringing yr cussy bro's and ask them hows it going. maybe also ask them how many days of piss and hooker dosh they have left too.
beware, just contact them before 10am tho.
tell em the prices of potassium/potash, has fallen off the cliff and will stay low for say, a decade, ie a lifetime and u know a real top lawyer who can represent them.....


----------



## Adam A (25 March 2009)

Only 65,000 shares up for sale at this stage?

Makes me wonder if news is on the way? A very tightly held share so could mean zip 

 I hold  and await with baited breath


----------



## Adam A (26 March 2009)

Buy the rumour sell the fact? 

Up 12.5% today very small volume with only 20 odd grand being spent, still,with only 47,000 shares  up for sale as of close today,these shares appear to be very tightly held 

Good news on a couple of fronts could see an interesting tussle for own ership,negative news or further delays and id imagine back to the 0.30s 

Heaps of info in previous posts and has moved quickly in the past

I hold so please dyor


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## Adam A (2 April 2009)

Massive increase today 1.111% 

Volume increasing as RWD moves closer to a judgement on native title

Potash prices still holding and talks of BHP sniffing around canadian producers

Monsanto reporting on full year profits in the states tonight 

I hold so dyor as im biased


----------



## big sal (3 April 2009)

Adam A said:


> Massive increase today 1.111%
> 
> Volume increasing as RWD moves closer to a judgement on native title





very nice, up over 28% today! next seller sits at 70c. 

the 45c seller/feeder seems to have finally disappeared.


----------



## Adam A (3 April 2009)

To think that it all rests on the onsite meeting on moday (bearing weather,illness, mood, ect of the martu people)with a judgement wednesday?

Still have further  drilling results to come out of south carnarvon, which in themselves could be company making.

Short term all eyes on the next ann, a stubborn bunch of holders,wont be able to stop a plunge back to the .040s imho if news is bad.

Good news and well, a return to prices of old?hard to say times have changed

A reading of past posts from start to finish might be a good way to fill in a rainy weekend


----------



## Adam A (6 April 2009)

Another 9 odd % today 

Looks like a few daytraders now on board

100,000,plus traded today 

Tomorrow should be interesting especially towards the close

I probably should offload a few tomorrow just to be on the safe side,then again if news is good Greeeeed


----------



## Adam A (7 April 2009)

Ok no need to panic (he says to self)

Down 15.625% today with 172,205 shares traded
Wishfull thinking, its only daytraders and t+3 traders and short stops getting hit?
Other side of the coin further delays and those in the know getting out temporarily to fight another day

Time will tell 
Good luck to all holders 
(i hold so postings might be construe to the positive)


----------



## d_crome (8 April 2009)

Today SHOULD (and thats a mighty big should) be the pre-meeting for the arbitration between the Native Title owners and RWD.

Assuming the NT's show up (which they haven't the past three times I believe) this process MAY get some forward traction.

We'll see - cross your fingers, knees and toes.


----------



## Adam A (8 April 2009)

No news at this stage 

Down 5.5% approx with 32,650 traded today

Will tomorrow bring a result?

Holding on tight


----------



## Adam A (10 April 2009)

Jumped the gun with the announcement (sorry)

"NNTT Deputy President C Sommer will now consider the submissions and hand down his ruling in due course"

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=RWD&timeframe=D&period=W

Trading finished up nearly 2% with 40,257 shares trading hands

Carnarvon basin drilling still proceeding


----------



## Adam A (16 April 2009)

Still waiting on announcement 

Up 9.24% today with volume increasing to 233,243 traded 
Closed at 0.65c

Waiting Waiting


----------



## Adam A (1 May 2009)

Still waiting (ground hog day)
220,000 traded today with a strong close of 0.70c
Looks like someone exiting with most shares bought at the 0.70c mark today


----------



## big sal (4 May 2009)

RWD hit 75c for a while today before finishing at 70c again. waiting waiting ... can't be too far away now


----------



## d_crome (14 May 2009)

Hit 0.83 on close - a 30% increase on a days worth of trading.

It looks like there are buyers out there that are taking the punt that the native title issues have been resolved - not that insider trading ever happens on the ASX....nooooo (insert sarcasm here).

Either way prices for Potash are remaining high and steady, POT in the US/Canada is increasing in worth daily - I am waiting in anticipation of the potentially very bright future that RWD has on the cards.

Again - DYOR - I'm just an internet ret@rd.


----------



## Adam A (26 May 2009)

Still waiting
Share price floating around
Down 10% @0.59c 160 odd thousand traded today

Ok back to sleep


----------



## trillionaire#1 (28 May 2009)

i finally bought in to RWD, moments later.. a trading halt

hoping for some good news on monday to say the least...


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2009)

trillionaire#1 said:


> i finally bought in to RWD, moments later.. a trading halt
> 
> hoping for some good news on monday to say the least...



Strange there was no reason attached to the ann.

I suspect a decision on the Martu thingy. It's due.

If so, it's a major turning point for RWD imo. One way or the other..


----------



## happytown (28 May 2009)

judgment handed down denying reward the granting of a mining lease at lake disappointment [*at first instance*]

looks like reward had better put an agreement proposal to the martu people that is more attractive than any they may have previously put forward



> ...
> 
> in respect of the Company’s application for Mining Lease 45/1171 at Lake Disappointment that “the Act must not be done” meaning that *without consent of the Martu Native Title Party the Mining Lease application must not be granted to* Holocene Pty Ltd/*Reward Minerals Ltd*
> 
> ...




addendum - interesting sell-off in rwd this morning prior to ann on large volume (for rwd), currently in pre-open and not looking good [opened @.745, indicative price currently .49]

cheers


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2009)

happytown said:


> judgment handed down denying reward the granting of a mining lease at lake disappointment [*at first instance*]
> 
> looks like reward had better put an agreement proposal to the martu people that is more attractive than any they may have previously put forward
> 
> cheers



My reading of that is that Lake Disappointing, is dead.

Am I right?

If so, STBs neighbouring claim is dead also.

The sacred potash, remains sacred.

Long live in antiquity, Martu.



Or, I've read that wrong?


----------



## happytown (28 May 2009)

not necessarily kennas (although not the news rwd holders would have wanted)

rwd have to come to an agreement with the martutians which 



> includes commercial terms acceptable to the Martu people ...



as to the decision rwd



> is currently assessing the 81 page ruling and assessing its options in the matter ...



balls in rwd's court 

addendum - it is however currently getting smashed sp-wise, currently .35, down 50%

cheers


----------



## d_crome (28 May 2009)

I'm quite frankly disgusted with this outcome.

What should have been a poster child of how mining and native peoples could both benefit has turned into a complete sham where the greed of third parties, the inadequacies of a system and out right insider trading selloff's prior to the announcement all became transparent.

I reckon we'd all have more luck at the Crown Pokies these days than the ASX.

As Obi Wan Kanobi said - "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious."

END RANT.

From what I can gather the tribunal didn't (or didn't WANT) to get their hands dirty and make a hard call that would infuriate the left wing liberals out there, so they basically put the onus back on to the parties at hand to go back to the negotiating table and sort this mess out.

I hope this time the next "agreement" is actually worth more than the paper it's written on.


----------



## Sean K (28 May 2009)

Michael Ruane is having a hard trot at the moment. It seems he's been selecting some aweful things to get inviolved in. How did he get to this position to start with? 

In regard to arbitration, one side played too hard. The Martu should be happy with anything they get. Like a school.


----------



## big sal (28 May 2009)

d_crome said:


> What should have been a poster child of how mining and native peoples could both benefit has turned into a complete sham where the greed of third parties, the inadequacies of a system and out right insider trading selloff's prior to the announcement all became transparent.




agree what a cop-out take the easy path.

bottom line is this ... the parties now need to nut out a deal acceptable to all. 

Big upside for all still to be had ... including s/holders


----------



## happytown (28 May 2009)

d_crome said:


> ...
> 
> From what I can gather the tribunal didn't (or didn't WANT) to get their hands dirty and make a hard call that would infuriate the left wing liberals out there, so they basically put the onus back on to the parties at hand to go back to the negotiating table and sort this mess out.
> 
> ...




d_chrome

as reward stated in their ann, it was not within the tribunal's jurisdiction legally to impose commercial terms - ie if they had imposed commercial terms, the imposing of the terms (and consequently the terms themselves) would have been beyond the power of the tribunal and as such have no legal standing (if and when successfully appealed against)

generally speaking (dangerously so) courts and tribunals don't impose new  commercial terms on parties (they do however uphold or otherwise commercial terms as agreed between parties regularly in disputes), these the judiciary believe are best determined as between the parties who ought have a better understanding of the commercial dealings involved 

cheers


----------



## d_crome (28 May 2009)

Happy_T, 

Thanks for that.

So the whole point I'm gathering of this process was to get the original agreement enforced??

Or did RWD want to offer less once the NT's had pulled out?

I guess that needs a little more clarity.

I guess I'm overall disappointed in both parties - I'd originally purchased RWD once they'd made that agreement with the NT's - I really wanted to support a company that for ONCE was acting in a socially responsible manner and doing the right thing for the community as well as themselves.

That's probably why this outcome is more disappointing to me than if this had been a typical agreement where the locals were ripped off by an unscrupulousness miner and left with nothing - then I'd have cheered whole heartedly for an outcome like this.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer - I'm an internet idi@t and take no heed to my rants.


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## happytown (28 May 2009)

d_crome said:


> ...
> 
> So the whole point I'm gathering of this process was to get the original agreement enforced??
> 
> ...




unfamiliar with the original agreement as between reward and martutians, has their been one?

what is obvious is that the martutians are seeking more agreeable commercial terms (than have been previously discussed as between the respective parties) in any agreement with reward

cheers


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## d_crome (28 May 2009)

Happy_T,

This is from the company website:

http://www.rewardminerals.com//index.php?option=com_remository&Itemid=2&func=startdown&id=105

TRADITIONAL OWNERS FULLY SUPPORT REWARD MINERALS LIMITED LAKE DISAPPOINTMENT POTASH PROJECT ASX RELEASE 31 MARCH 2008 ASX: RWD Indigenous Energy Pty Ltd (IndiEnergy), as exclusive commercial advisor for the Martu people, is pleased to announce that Western Desert Lands Aboriginal Corporation (WDLAC) as the prescribed body corporate holding on trust the determined native title rights and interests of the Martu people, the traditional owners of the land upon which Lake Disappointment is located, and Reward Minerals Ltd (Reward) have agreed commercial terms and signed a term sheet in relation to the Lake Disappointment potash project. This paves the way for a comprehensive mining agreement allowing Reward full access to test and ultimately develop their exciting potash development. Martu fully supports Michael Ruane, Managing Director of Reward, in his endeavours to accelerate the project to reach its full potential in a timely fashion. Mr Joe Procter, Principal of IndiEnergy, said today: These excellent commercial terms were recently accepted at a full community meeting after lengthy negotiations over an eight month period. We believe the presence of generous indigenous equity component as part of the transaction is the way of the future in mining negotiations. Reward has offered equity in a bid to align the future interests of both parties - an innovative strategy which also acknowledges the strength of Martu rights. This outcome clearly demonstrates that progressive companies like Reward are respectful of Martu’s rights and that Reward also appreciates the Martu’s ability to act in a professional and commercial manner. WDLAC Chairman Mr Teddy Biljabu, Community Leader, Mr Brian Samson and WDLAC Chief Executive Officer, Mr Clinton Wolf, issued a joint statement today: We fought long and hard to secure the Martu’s native title rights and now reap the benefits of standing united. Martu are a proud group of traditional desert people who possess significant native title rights. We expect honesty and fair value in exchange for our co-operation, along with an underlying assumption of equity in any project on our land. Gone are the days of the big
boys treating us like we are speed bumps in our own country. By signing the term sheet with
Reward, we have clearly demonstrated that we will support companies who respect us as the
rightful owners, who offer fair value and who act in a transparent, professional and commercial
fashion.
We are pleased and excited to be moving forward with Reward on this project and will do
everything in our power as true business partners to accelerate project development..



happytown said:


> unfamiliar with the original agreement as between reward and martutians, has their been one?
> 
> what is obvious is that the martutians are seeking more agreeable commercial terms (than have been previously discussed as between the respective parties) in any agreement with reward
> 
> cheers


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## happytown (28 May 2009)

d_crome said:


> ...
> 
> have agreed commercial terms and *signed a term sheet* in relation to the Lake Disappointment potash project. This *paves the way for a comprehensive mining agreement* allowing Reward full access to test and ultimately develop their exciting potash development
> 
> ...




it is interesting that they have indicated the signing of a *term sheet* which then paves the way for a comprehensive *mining agreement*

which indicates to me (from the ann you posted) that they have not signed a mining agreement, only a term sheet (which possibly only lays out the terms of a potential agreement as opposed to a legally enforceable mining agreement)

again though i don't know enough about the ongoing discussions, nor the term sheet and its legal standing

it would appear however, that the senior member did not find a legally enforceable agreement which indicated the martutians had given the required consent

cheers


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## alex90 (28 May 2009)

What are all your thoughts on buying into RWD now on a 44% drop? What are the chances that they manage to be granted the mining lease at lake diappointment in the future?
Cheers


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## trillionaire#1 (28 May 2009)

damn this stock took me to the cleaners today!
i bought in moments before the trading halt and expecting it to remain
in a halt until monday,went out for a snack only to return and find it 
trading in full swing and 35% below my purchase $$$

no time for a stop loss before the halt ,and wouldve been  much higher
than the reopening price anyway,

finally i bailed out at 45 cents in late trade.

some days you hit it.... some days you get hit.


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## fureien (29 May 2009)

i feel u mate

happened to me 5 times this month

url
cfu
bbi
vpg to name a few.
never leaving the computer again lol


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## Miner (30 May 2009)

OPPORTUNITY to see one of the directors bought 40000 shares when the market dived.

Fishy ??

Let us see on Monday


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## Sean K (28 July 2009)

Well, I really thought that they would eventually get to mine.

So much money involved and yet.....


LAKE DISAPPOINTMENT – FEDERAL ATTORNEYS DECISION
ASX RELEASE
28 JULY 2009

Reward Minerals Ltd advises that it has received the decision the Attorney General of Australia in respect of the Company’s request that the Attorney General overrule the National Native Title Tribunal decision not to grant a Mining Lease over the Lake Disappointment Potash resource.

The Attorney General’s decision is that it is not in the National interest or in the interest of Western Australia to overrule the NNTT, thus the decision of the Tribunal remains in place namely that the Act must not be done and that the Company’s Mining Lease application at Lake Disappointment should not be granted.


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## enigmatic (28 July 2009)

Hey Kennas doesn't sound to good for RWD, this would however be good for MAK, now they won't need to worry about RWD as much..


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## Miner (28 July 2009)

Miner said:


> OPPORTUNITY to see one of the directors bought 40000 shares when the market dived.
> 
> Fishy ??
> 
> Let us see on Monday




I was so wrong when saw something fishy with the purchase back in May . Since then Lake Disappointment only disappointed its shareholders with a hard blow with Attorney General's decision not grant mining to RWD. Really a sad story.

Sorry holders but when RWD opens it will be a real crash


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## Kalvin (21 September 2009)

So did they sort the issue out with the meeting with the Attorney General last week?
I hope so because the fundamentals of the company are great, and Australia imports all its potash ATM.
heres hoping......


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## Kalvin (3 October 2009)

Just reading between the lines, the RWD bit to mine potash in Lake Dissapointment looks stuffed: they didn't even mention Lake Reward in their latest market update.  What is it with the Native title People? Scotching this deal seem to have cost the Martu people a conservative $10,000 per person per year for doing sod-all!


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## Kalvin (13 October 2009)

Potentially exciting announcement today that means RWD may not have to worry about the Martu; masses of Potash in Lake McCleod!  Big price and volume hike as result!
Very interesting developments!


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## Kalvin (16 October 2009)

Reward minerals has gone ballistic this morning. Someone seems to have bought almost all the available stock; Suggests that someone inside has got hold of some drilling results from their Carnarvon venture, or maybe their Lake McKay play. On past performances you could expect the RWD sp to be north of $1.10 pretty sharply.


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## happytown (8 December 2009)

ann late yesterday re the aptly named lake disappointment



> Reward Minerals Ltd has received correspondence from the Western Desert Lands Aboriginal Corporation (WDLAC), the body corporate representing the Martu people, advising that at a recent meeting in Port Hedland, *the WDLAC Board decided that it does not wish mining development to take place at Lake Disappointment*.
> 
> It is unclear at this time whether a full community meeting is to take place or is required to ratify the decision. However, *WDLAC has further advised that in view of the Board decision it does not intend to engage in further discussions with Reward in relation to the Company’s Lake Disappointment Project*.
> 
> Reward is currently considering its position in the matter and will further advise shareholders in due course.



what options remain for the board of reward

the marketrazon has landed


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## Simo9 (12 April 2012)

It's been a long time between posts on this one. 

Any thoughts on the prospects for Reward? It has fallen to 69c and seems to have a downward trend with a few spikes of excitement in 2011. 

Is the major limiting factor for this stock getting resolutions to native title? The price for potash seems stable - http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/potash/5-years/ . 

Also, could the current downward trend suggest some capital raising in the works?

Cheers

P.S. I'm a bit of a new-b, do am watching a few stocks to learn the ropes


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## Chasero (12 April 2012)

Simo9 said:


> It's been a long time between posts on this one.
> 
> Any thoughts on the prospects for Reward? It has fallen to 69c and seems to have a downward trend with a few spikes of excitement in 2011.
> 
> ...




You'll learn to put all downward trending stocks on a watch list.

Picking bottoms is hard, and you'll have to see signs of a bottom and start of a new trend to jump in.

I am looking to see if it will bounce off its lows in March 2011 (low 60c).


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## Simo9 (13 April 2012)

Chasero said:


> You'll learn to put all downward trending stocks on a watch list.
> 
> Picking bottoms is hard, and you'll have to see signs of a bottom and start of a new trend to jump in.
> 
> I am looking to see if it will bounce off its lows in March 2011 (low 60c).




Thanks for the reply Chasero.

What do you mean by bouncing off it's lows in march? Do you mean return to that level or that the trend has been sporadic since then or . . .


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## Simo9 (3 May 2012)

Hi all,

Can I get your help interpreting the recent price jump for RWD? 

Yesterday it opened at 68c, increased by approx 8% and increased again today to be at 80c. There was an announcement yesterday but it was only about a change of director's interest and I can't see anyone getting excited about it (unless I'm missing something). 

After the increase yesterday I checked the course of sales and there was about 9 trades for the day totaling $15,000 - the biggest trade was about $7k. Because of the small number and value of trades I thought that there wasn't much behind the increase. Contrary to my expectation, it went up again today. 

Any thoughts on what's driving this? Also, any advice on how to use the course of sale information to get a clearer picture?

Thanks!


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## Faramir (29 June 2021)

I am picking Reward Minerals for July Tipping competition. I want to be rewarded for my intensive efforts in choosing this stock 😂
It went up by 40% today. I better find out why?


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## Faramir (29 June 2021)

Here’s an announcement that resulted in today’s share price jump.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02389169-6A1038556?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


The title makes me laugh. I want to be rewarded but this project in located in Lake Disappointment. I better not paddle my kayak in this lake ever! I don’t want to be disappointed with my slow paddling.

*Major Project Status Awarded to Reward’s Lake Disappointment SOP Project*
SOP stands for sulphate of potash


> Key Points
> The Major Projects Facilitation Agency assessed the Lake Disappointment SOP Project on a standard set of criteria, and to qualify it needed to:
> 
> Be of strategic significance to Australia and must either:
> ...




Two Government Ministers backing this project: Christian Porter and Keith Pitt.

I wonder if this is one of those pie-in-the-sky projects or if this is the real deal???


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