# Stock market doomsayers running wild



## kincella (3 April 2009)

Geoffrey Newman, Wealth Editor | April 01, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian
A HITHERTO rare species of economic animal has been stalking the corridors around here in the past few months.

The incorrigible gloom-monger has not been sighted much in the past few years but has been tempted out of its lair lately by the downturn in the global economy, spreading schadenfreude wherever he goes; it's usually a he. Gloom-mongers are always happiest when times are toughest, when the papers are full of poor economic news. 

You will probably have at least one in your group of friends or work colleagues. They shuffle up to you with a mix of humility and mock horror with news of the latest billion-dollar bank loss in the US, like a latter-day Uriah Heep. "Isn't it terrible," they say, stifling a smile. 

They always end these updates with the conclusion that things can only get worse from here or that there is some great calamity so far unreported but just around the corner. Oh, and by the way, they have just sold every investment they have and put the proceeds into gold or cash. These people are having a better credit crisis than just about anyone except maybe George Soros. 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25251078-5018061,00.html


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## Temjin (3 April 2009)

LOL Good, I'm glad I'm considered one of them because I am realistic enough to understand the seriousness of this global financial crisis but still remain optimistic enough that to know I will be better off than most others since I am very much prepared for it.

The motto is, "Be realistically optimistic but prepare for the worst", and NOT "Be unrealistically optimistic AND refuse to believe the worst will ever come". 

And everyone seem to forget that it is EXACTLY these infamous doom sayers like Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, etc, who had predicted the crisis way before these "over-optimistic-in-denial-with-flaw-fundamentals" economists have. Before 2007, I would have even labelled them as ultra permissitic because the stock markets were still rising fast and hard. Nouriel was basically LAUGHED at by his peers for his dire predictions and discredit by all media. And what now? 

So should I follow the advises of those who have predicted the crisis and PROFITED from it or those who failed to predict it and made it worse for everybody else? 

I certainly know who to choose.


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## Sean K (3 April 2009)

Aren't they a bit late?

Geesh!

Now that the taxi drivers are saying sell, it's time to buy!


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Aren't they a bit late?
> 
> Geesh!
> 
> Now that the taxi drivers are saying sell, it's time to buy!




No, no, the taxi drivers, economists & tipsheets (Huntley) are BUYING - they have called the bottom - time to sell to THEM! 

Sell the investment properties :sheep: and go, go, go for stocks 

We'll see how they go after tonights US employment numbers go - hard to ignore the facts.


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## moXJO (3 April 2009)

As far as being bearish, Peter Schiff put up the good fight very early on. He was often put down on US TV. Wonder if any of them ate humble pie afterwards. Very good to watch right the way through. Yes I know Aus market is different to what went on in the US
I know I wouldn’t trust a local rags opinion though


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## kincella (3 April 2009)

there are people out there like my brother....he has been bearish on everything...always....even in the boom times...
so those people miss out in the boom times...waiting for the bear market...and then the bear market scares them...
I dont consider them worthwhile...they dont pick any time as a good time to make money....
and then when the inevitable happens they claim success....
but the market is like a yo yo...its up and down all the time...
no wonder intra day trading is popular


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## gfresh (3 April 2009)

They probably look at me the same way as I look at those who think nothing will ever go wrong, and the world is ALWAYS full of sunshine and lollypops. 

Come on, differences of opinion are what is makes humans fantastic. If everybody had the same opinion and perspective the world would be a pretty damn boring place. 

Being overly optimistic or overly pessimistic can help bring anybody down to matter which pursuit you entertain.. the key is to know when to switch at the drop of a hat


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## moXJO (3 April 2009)

kincella said:


> there are people out there like my brother....he has been bearish on everything...always....even in the boom times...
> so those people miss out in the boom times...waiting for the bear market...and then the bear market scares them...
> I dont consider them worthwhile...they dont pick any time as a good time to make money....
> and then when the inevitable happens they claim success....
> ...




Agree with you here kince . You have to be trading the opportunities whether bull or bear imo. It is pointless to sit back, and just watch it unfold. All the while saying I told you so, but never capitalizing on any opportunities. 

I think a lot of people here voice a bearish or bullish concern about what may happen. But trade with a more realistic (and possibly similar) outlook.


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## aleckara (3 April 2009)

The truth of the matter is most people trade what they see now. However personally outside their trading they may have a bias.

I consider myself bearish - but the government could save the day with rampant inflation and stop-gap measures. It can fill the void for long enough. We have scope to increase our national debt unlike other countries which may save us this time around. If our government were in a worse fiscal position we would have felt it worse than the US (no housing grants, or stimulus packages). I doubt the debt will be paid back though - 200 billion from my memory is a lot of money.


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

I am bearish overall, but have been buying for several weeks, but, sold them all today, even some gold stocks. Now short everything. 

The big picture is that what we are seeing is the cumulative effects of decades of excess credit creation resulting in revolving bubbles in everything - stocks, property etc etc. If it (misaligned investment into unproductive financial money shuffling) doesn't get cleared this time then the next round will, but only several orders worse - an super inflationary blow off top! That's if we get out of this one?


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## metric (3 April 2009)

uncle festivus...are you anticipating a post tax crash in the US?


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## white_goodman (3 April 2009)

if you want doomsday look up Gerald Celente... its a shame he's been very accurate in the past...


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## Beej (3 April 2009)

white_goodman said:


> if you want doomsday look up Gerald Celente... its a shame he's been very accurate in the past...




Oh - he accurately predicted the bull markets of the past 15 years???

Beej


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

Don't know why people cannot face economic reality. This debt bubble has to burst at some stage, when it does, one would think there would be hell to pay. wonder.


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## kincella (3 April 2009)

article today about Paul Keating and the banks... for the first time I agree with him...although its been my sentiment for a long time now....
let the banks fail,  if there is nothing but debt there, then shareholders have nothing anyway...
its the big companies who have taken on the debt...
I really dont know anyone in my circle of friends, acquaintences who has a large amount of debt
my post from another forum....

Mr Keating said Mr Obama must step in and nationalise barely solvent US banks. 

"The problem with the Americans is this: that they have a great body of large, systemic banks which are barely solvent or maybe insolvent. 

"They have to decide which are insolvent and shut them and for those that are solvent, take them over and recapitalise them." 

The former Labor prime minister said the trouble with governments was no one wanted to be the executioner. 

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25283168-662,00.html


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

metric said:


> uncle festivus...are you anticipating a post tax crash in the US?



 Not sure what you mean there, but just thinking that the euphoria we've just had in the markets will yet again have to be discounted due to some still deteriorating fundamentals ie unemployment, plunging company profits (pe's being calculated on existing returns??) dramatic 'falling of a cliff' style plunge in international trade (Japan exports down 45%!!), Australian banks still not lending to companies to roll over short term debts etc etc

My reasoning - how has the G20 summit or the ISM manufacturing index going up by 0.5 pionts changed the dismal facts? A classic bull trap. Eerily similar to the Great Depression.


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## Temjin (3 April 2009)

kincella said:


> article today about Paul Keating and the banks...and first time I agree with him...although its been my sentiment for a long time now....
> let the banks fail, if there is nothing but debt there, then shareholders have nothing anyway...
> its the big companies who have taken on the debt...
> I really dont know anyone in my circle of friends, acquaintences who has a large amount of debt
> ...




Geez, now you are making bearish comments just like one of us by agreeing that the banks are already insolvent.  Welcome to the group! 

Of course they should be nationalised or undergo a structured bankrupcy. And of course no one would DARE to pull the finger because those who have the ability to enact such policies also have personal vested interest in keeping them alive. Quite unfortunate, but there is nothing we can do much about it except maybe join the protestors at the G20 to break more windows.  (or prepare yourself for the worst and position to profit from the trend)


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

> The former Labor prime minister said the trouble with governments was no* one wanted to be the executioner*




Of course they won't, this means to much pain for the general public in the near term. This means that they their popularity will go down.

Just look at KRudd, highest approval ratings since Hawke because of the hand outs!! Whose going to vote out someone who is giving them money for free? All they care about is the short term and winning the election, this is why crisises will continue to occur in the future, none of them look out longer then 3 - 4 yrs!


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## Nyden (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Don't know why people cannot face economic reality. This debt bubble has to burst at some stage, when it does, one would think there would be hell to pay. wonder.




I just love that, I really do - you speak as though nothing has happened. Markets cut in half(+) to levels not seen in *ten years*, house prices plummeting around the world, but yeah, nothing has even begun yet!  Wait, let me guess - gold headed to $5k as well?

The amount of continual negativity is just staggering. One should always be realistic, conservative, but never blindly bullish, nor bearish.


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## kincella (3 April 2009)

I have a problem with the govt throwing taxpayers money at the banks...so the banks will free up credit for businesses etc.....but the banks took the money and tied up the credit...
I believe the govt would have been better off opening up a fed govt bank with that money and let the other banks work it out for themselves
Obama has put an end to the same tripe from the car makers.....
same  thing needed in AU with the banks and any other pirahna's out there

I have no faith in them doing anything right at the moment...look at the fiasco with the job network providors...


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## metric (3 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Not sure what you mean there, but just thinking that the euphoria we've just had in the markets will yet again have to be discounted due to some still deteriorating fundamentals ie unemployment, plunging company profits (pe's being calculated on existing returns??) dramatic 'falling of a cliff' style plunge in international trade (Japan exports down 45%!!), Australian banks still not lending to companies to roll over short term debts etc etc
> 
> My reasoning - how has the G20 summit or the ISM manufacturing index going up by 0.5 pionts changed the dismal facts? A classic bull trap. Eerily similar to the Great Depression.




with tax returns due to be lodged by april 15, there are some whom believe the next round of bad tides are being with held till after lodgement.


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## Temjin (3 April 2009)

kincella said:


> I have a problem with the govt throwing taxpayers money at the banks...so the banks will free up credit for businesses etc.....but the banks took the money and tied up the credit...




Yep, that's what exactly happened right now. Every "supposed to be" insolvent banks are basically hoarding these taxpayer money to maintain their reserve requirement and as provision for further loan losses. 

IN THEORY, these banks have more than enough capital right now to lend more money out to worthly borrowers. Unfortunately, the negative sentiments of these borrowers are forcing them to reduce spending and increase saving, thereby, reducing the demand for loans from the banks.

So how in the world would government help to "boost lending" by throwing money at the banks and removing their toxic assets really beats me. Sentiment DO NOT just change overnight. 



			
				kincella said:
			
		

> I believe the govt would have been better off opening up a fed govt bank with that money and let the other banks work it out for themselves
> Obama has put an end to the same tripe from the car makers.....
> same thing needed in AU with the banks and any other pirahna's out there
> 
> I have no faith in them doing anything right at the moment...look at the fiasco with the job network providors...




We (or some of us) wished that the governments would just let the free markets work and have these insolvent banks to go bankrupt so other "good" banks (who only do traditional business and not take on excessive risk) can take over them. 

Unfortunately, the world of politics does not work that way. The US government is trying very hard to keep the bond holders of these banks alive. (though the shareholders of these banks have pretty much died..)


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> I just love that, I really do - you speak as though nothing has happened. Markets cut in half(+) to levels not seen in ten years, house prices plummeting around the world, but yeah, nothing has even begun yet!  Wait, let me guess - gold headed to $5k as well?
> 
> The amount of continual negativity is just staggering. One should always be realistic, conservative, but never blindly bullish, nor bearish.




I'm not going to repeat my views a million times. Debt grew this bubble and it has to be reversed, if it is not now, it will in the future. It looks like we're buying our way out of trouble at the moment through massive injections of capital from our governments. I've posted a graph on GDP v debt on the forums a few times, find it if you want. You will notice that when debt has outgrown GDP to much it has reversed itself over a period of years. Why won't it be different this time? 

Stick to your charts, if you use them. We could see a massive bear market with many rallies within it. The market could head to 4400 if we break through this coming level of resistence. We had a massive bull market from 1980 to current, why can't we have the reverse? 



> cut in half(+) to levels not seen in ten years




We were at this level back in '04, its '09. Thats not ten years.

So mate, what is your basis that we have reached the "bottom", sound like thats what your saying. Please don't throw out the old line that markets have all ready dropped a lot and if you buy now you will probably see gains in 5 years. Anyone can say that. Any intelligent thoughts behind your thinking? cheers.


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## nomore4s (3 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> The amount of continual negativity is just staggering. One should always be realistic, conservative, but never blindly bullish, nor bearish.




I agree Nyden, no matter what the bears or the bulls will have you believe I think the true outcome will lie somewhere in the middle.

To me at the moment with what I see in day to day life running my business we will have a moderate to deep recession but will not see a 1930s style depression, this view may change as the recession deepens but atm despite all the extreme bearish views, so far here in Aust we have only seen a mild recession.


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## Nyden (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I'm not going to repeat my views a million times. Debt grew this bubble and it has to be reversed, if it is not now, it will in the future. It looks like we're buying our way out of trouble at the moment through massive injections of capital from our governments. I've posted a graph on GDP v debt on the forums a few times, find it if you want. You will notice that when debt has outgrown GDP to much it has reversed itself over a period of years. Why won't it be different this time?
> 
> Stick to your charts, if you use them. We could see a massive bear market with many rallies within it. The market could head to 4400 if we break through this coming level of resistence. We had a massive bull market from 1980 to current, why can't we have the reverse?
> 
> ...





Firstly, I was referring to the US markets (levels not seen in 10 years), but that same comment did apply to many stocks right here as well - CBA springs to mind.

Secondly, no - I don't believe this is the bottom, but I believe we could be close. What's my basis? Well, simply put - the entirety of my basis is a contrarian view. On the TV there are weekly specials on combating the recession, here on ASF, new members with 3 posts are continually posting how much further we've got to fall, and how it's hardly begun. The mainstream media has become bearish, so I'm starting to become bullish.

The simple truth is that you, nor me - nor anyone else, will pick the actual bottom (and if by chance we do, it'll simply be a case of good fortune!), so why bother? The only safe bet, is that the governments of the world will do everything within their power to combat this, whether it will work or not I don't know - but surely some exposure is warranted given the risk of inflation.


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## jonnycage (3 April 2009)

ones things for sure, the world will live another day.... surely some bargins to be had along the way, and with the recent gains some people are making money
jc


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> Secondly, no - I don't believe this is the bottom, but I believe we could be close. What's my basis? Well, simply put - the entirety of my basis is a contrarian view. On the TV there are weekly specials on combating the recession, here on ASF, new members with 3 posts are continually posting how much further we've got to fall, and how it's hardly begun. The mainstream media has become bearish, so I'm starting to become bullish.
> 
> The simple truth is that you, nor me - nor anyone else, will pick the actual bottom (and if by chance we do, it'll simply be a case of good fortune!), so why bother? The only safe bet, is that the governments of the world will do everything within their power to combat this, whether it will work or not I don't know - but surely some exposure is warranted given the risk of inflation.




Risk of inflation? Better buy some gold then 

Bear market bottoms have already come & gone. My contrarian bearish view is based on the overly bullish sentiment going around now - it's as if all is forgiven, now back to normal - just buy & hold and be a genius share investor again?

Not until there is utter & complete revulsion of _everything_ financial, will we have seen the absolute bottom?

PS better base your logic on something better than Today Tonight segments and 3 poster ASF members.

The mainstream media are overwhelmingly bullish I would have thought ie they don't have clue as usual?


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

jonnycage said:


> ones things for sure, the world will live another day....
> jc




You know that for a fact........?


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## jonnycage (3 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> You know that for a fact........?





i do,  i spoke to jesus after the G20 summit, he said dont follow the bearish crowd, and that all is now safe.

jc


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## roofa (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Please don't throw out the old line that markets have all ready dropped a lot and if you buy now you will probably see gains in 5 years. Anyone can say that. cheers.




5 Years? How does 5 months or even 5 weeks sound?


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> no - I don't believe this is the bottom, but I believe we could be close. What's my basis? Well, simply put - the entirety of my basis is a contrarian view. On the TV there are weekly specials on combating the recession, here on ASF, new members with 3 posts are continually posting how much further we've got to fall, and how it's hardly begun. The mainstream media has become bearish, so I'm starting to become bullish.




I find it hard to believe that your basing your views on re-entering the market on a few posters on ASF. No offence at all, but I think that is quite stupid. It is said that markets reach the bottom when people are most pessimistic, I don't think we're there yet. I still haven't picked up the Herald Sun and seen headlines everyday about unemployment. The mainstream media can still become a lot more bearish in my opinion. 



> *whether it will work or not I don't know* - but surely some exposure is warranted




I doubt it will work. There is going to be problems in the future no matter what. The market mechanism is meant to sort problems out, it can't when there is constant intervention from governments, this would cause inflation one ould think? This happens when governments print money, like the US are doing now, they're following the Zimbabwe economic school of thinking. If the market mechanism was aloud to play out without intervention the market would be cleaned out and a fresh start would begin. That is the problem with a capitalist economy, people are happy with the upside and tell the public sector to go away when things are rosey but they can't handle the downside. You can't have it both ways. 



> The only safe bet, is that the governments of the world will do everything within their power to combat this,




How can you trust the people who got us into this situation (Helicopter Ben, Tim Geithner etc.) to get us out of the problem? It bewilders me that people who caused the problem are aloud to sit around and try and fix it!!! 



> given the risk of inflation.




We'll surely a bit of gold is a good compenent of a portfolio then isn't it? Not suggesting that it is going to $5k but it would do well in an inflationary environment.



> 5 Years? How does 5 months or even 5 weeks sound?




Yes if you were trading you could make those gains.  I think the poster was talking about investing though, when you buy something and hold it for a longer period of time, say a year, and ride out the lows.

I would suggest that you take up trading. You don't have to worry about any of the background noise the market or economy throws up! wonder.


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## roofa (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Yes if you were trading you could make those gains.  I think the poster was talking about investing though, when you buy something and hold it for a longer period of time, say a year, and ride out the lows.
> 
> I would suggest that you take up trading. You don't have to worry about any of the background noise the market or economy throws up! wonder.




I confess, I’m an investor. Last 6 months I’ve only been acquiring, I have thought about trading and I am still evaluating the benefits v risk.


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

jonnycage said:


> i do, i spoke to jesus after the G20 summit, he said dont follow the bearish crowd, and that all is now safe.
> 
> jc




On first name terms with Obama are we??


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## sammy84 (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> We had a massive bull market from 1980 to current, why can't we have the reverse?
> )




A few reasons why
1. Markets fall faster then they rise.
2. There is an inherent bias to the upside in the market.


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## Nyden (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I find it hard to believe that your basing your views on re-entering the market on a few posters on ASF. No offence at all, but I think that is quite stupid. It is said that markets reach the bottom when people are most pessimistic, I don't think we're there yet. I still haven't picked up the Herald Sun and seen headlines everyday about unemployment. The mainstream media can still become a lot more bearish in my opinion.




No, not just ASF posters, and not just the media either, but the people as well. Every week at work, there are at least 10 individual people (considering I only work there once a week, that's a fair few) mentioning the recession, and how governments wont be able to fix anything (these are just every day folk as well). At my other place of work, half the people there have literally sworn off of the market, for personal, and for super-fund purposes.

The truth is that the negativity didn't get me into the market a month+ ago, but it's more what's kept me in. What got me in was my belief that oil was exceedingly oversold - and it was. I bought a few oilies when oil was at $35, and have so far done very well; and simply see no reason to sell. My theory is that the negativity I am personally witnessing will lead to a continued rally; as all of these sworn-off people attempt to recoup their losses, by panic buying right into my pocket 

However, I do believe it's silly of some to suggest that indexes simply *won't* recover. I don't care how unique a scenario this is, I know with certainty that they will recover, it's only a matter of when.

Oh, and with regards to gold being a good hedge against inflation ... well, I'll stick with oil for that. Although it's somewhat more difficult to invest directly into it, at least I know there are actual fundamental reasons for price increases. Hello peak oil 

Don't get me wrong though, I only have a very small portion of my funds in the market; the rest is sitting very comfortably in my new 5% Interest BankWest account.


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

You must have a very pessimistic client base, hardly is mentioned from customers at my part time work. Guessing what type of industry you work in has a large say in things though.

I would agree with you that commodities will obviously be very good hedge/investment, argriculture, oil, gold etc. Yes oil is hard to invest in, but that is why the BHPs of this world exist.wonder.


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## MRC & Co (3 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> No, no, the taxi drivers, economists & tipsheets (Huntley) are BUYING - they have called the bottom - time to sell to THEM!




Festivus, intelligent as always.

There a quite a few big profit takers out there, but you can tell, these instos are trying HARD to create the kind of rally the retailers and their funds will buy, so they can dump on their heads.  

The time is drawing near IMVHO.

"Doomsdayer critics" are about to be shown the exit.


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## nunthewiser (3 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> The time is drawing near IMVHO.
> 
> "Doomsdayer critics" are about to be shown the exit.




actually agree .......... still gotta trade whats in front of us  but the time to tread carefully is returning fast


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> actually agree .......... still gotta trade whats in front of us  but the time to tread carefully is returning fast




That 3800 lvl of resistence is going to be a defining point on how long this rally will last. The reaction is most important though, who knows what will happen when it occurs.  Would of thought that it would have been this week, the strength in this market has been weird. wonder.


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## Julia (3 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> I doubt it will work. There is going to be problems in the future no matter what. The market mechanism is meant to sort problems out, it can't when there is constant intervention from governments, this would cause inflation one ould think? This happens when governments print money, like the US are doing now, they're following the Zimbabwe economic school of thinking. If the market mechanism was aloud to play out without intervention the market would be cleaned out and a fresh start would begin. That is the problem with a capitalist economy, people are happy with the upside and tell the public sector to go away when things are rosey but they can't handle the downside. You can't have it both ways.



As long as we have governments which are entirely focused on the short term electoral cycle, polls, and their own survival, such downside will never be allowed to happen, so politically unpalatable is it.

And, of course, this is perfectly complemented by the superficial approach of the electorate-at-large who are happy to be receiving their handouts.
Don't expect them to give a millisecond's thought to the fact that such largesse is courtesy of borrowed funds which will eventually have to be accounted for.


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## Uncle Festivus (3 April 2009)

Julia said:


> Don't expect them to give a millisecond's thought to the fact that such largesse is courtesy of borrowed funds which will eventually have to be accounted for.




Yes, the cumulative parabolic of happiness largesse focused on the next election has finally caught up with governments world wide. Amongst all the backslapping of the G20 and all the finger pointing at the big bad banks, hedge funds etc, none were mentioning that it was the lax & myopic policies of central governments that created the climate for this to happen in the first place! 

Exactly why their plans will fail - watch as they one by one resort to trade protectionism and currency devaluing to keep elected, let alone have any interest in solving the actual problem at hand - trying to force consumers to consume things they don't want while banks deny companies funds they desperately need to keep people employed.


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

Julia said:


> As long as we have governments which are entirely focused on the short term electoral cycle, polls, and their own survival, such downside will never be allowed to happen, so politically unpalatable is it.




Yep I know that is not going to happen. As I said in another thread today, and you said before, governments are only focused on winning the next election. Economies will never be able to clear naturally, so they print money to solve the problem. This doesn't work, so they create yet another problem. Governments cause the problems because of intervention, then the private sector go crazy and do what the private sector do best, try and make as much money as possible. That's natural. The clearing is not natural though because no one likes pain. Like I said, the capitalist system of economy is really quite flawed. 

wonder.


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

> was the lax & myopic policies of central governments that created the climate for this to happen in the first place!




Yes that is so very true. Intervention caused this problem and people think intervention will fix it. Don't know how that works. What's more amazing is that the people who actually caused the problem and aloud it to run for so long are still in office. It really is an absolute joke our political system.


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, the cumulative parabolic of happiness largesse focused on the next election has finally caught up with governments world wide. Amongst all the backslapping of the G20 and all the finger pointing at the big bad banks, hedge funds etc, none were mentioning that it was the lax & myopic policies of central governments that created the climate for this to happen in the first place!
> 
> Exactly why their plans will fail - watch as they one by one resort to trade protectionism and currency devaluing to keep elected, let alone have any interest in solving the actual problem at hand - trying to force consumers to consume things they don't want while banks deny companies funds they desperately need to keep people employed.






wonderrman said:


> Yep I know that is not going to happen. As I said in another thread today, and you said before, governments are only focused on winning the next election. Economies will never be able to clear naturally, so they print money to solve the problem. This doesn't work, so they create yet another problem. Governments cause the problems because of intervention, then the private sector go crazy and do what the private sector do best, try and make as much money as possible. That's natural. The clearing is not natural though because no one likes pain. Like I said, the capitalist system of economy is really quite flawed.
> 
> wonder.




All this funnymentalist stuff is very interesting and I take it on board.

But as a chartist we are in the mother of all bear markets.

Follow the trend.

It will go lower.

All these guys at the G20 are basically just jumped up shire chairmen or despots or there because of inbreeding.

Follow the charts.

When the market tracks sideways for a number of years and then goes up with higher highs and higher lows, then we are out of it.

That picture of Brown looking at the Saudi guy with Rudd at the end of the table is about where we are at now. 

A table of fools.

gg


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## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> All this funnymentalist stuff is very interesting and I take it on board.
> 
> But as a chartist we are in the mother of all bear markets.




Yes it is very interesting and thats why I read it. My Ã¯nvestment" decisions are purely based on charting though. It has proved over the past 6 months that even in down markets you can make money. wonder.


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## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Amongst all the backslapping of the G20 and all the finger pointing at the big bad banks, hedge funds etc, none were mentioning that it was the lax & myopic policies of central governments that created the climate for this to happen in the first place!




LOL, so true.

I was on the bus to work yesterday morning, and sitting behind me were 3 old ladies, declaring their hate for traders, who according to them, are the cause of this entire global economic crisis.

Just L O L.  

Agree GG, we need to form a base and make some clear HHs and HLs before we legitimately move higher.  I already see some are starting to think this DCB is a legitimate rally, I am going to start dumping nxt wk.  For now, the wkend bender continues!    Cheers to the market!


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## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> That 3800 lvl of resistence is going to be a defining point on how long this rally will last. The reaction is most important though, who knows what will happen when it occurs.  Would of thought that it would have been this week, the strength in this market has been weird. wonder.




From my quick look a while back, resistance is just below 3800s, hence my call for a false break of it before we come off.

The strength of the rally has been enough to move us up despite some big profit taking, just enough to begin to turn the sentiment.


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## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

> From my quick look a while back, resistance is just below 3800s, hence my call for a false break of it before we come off.




Gday mate, yeah I noticed that on the chart as well ... _Another chart I have shows that we all ready have broken above a longer term resistence line were the line has all ready been touched three times._

We'll see how it all plays out I guess over the next few days. Chart attached.


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## MRC & Co (4 April 2009)

Yeh, I think they will probably move us up this wk a bit further, and start profit taking late in the wk, which will be enough to change the momentum.  

That's what I'm looking for anyways.


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