# Swine flu pandemic fears



## metric (25 April 2009)

bio tech stocks running......?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15182




> Mexico swine flu deaths spur global epidemic fears
> Texas officials keep wary eye out after 2 San Antonio teens recovered from the virus.
> By Mark Stevenson
> 
> ...







> Epidemiologists are concerned because the only fatalities were in young people and adults, an unusual pattern reminiscent of the 1918 flu pandemic, which killed at least 40 million people worldwide.
> 
> The World Health Organization was convening a panel to consider whether to raise the pandemic alert level or issue travel advisories.
> 
> Given how quickly flu can spread, if these are the first signs of a pandemic, then there are probably cases incubating around the world already, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota




http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/world/04/25/0425flu.html


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## UBIQUITOUS (25 April 2009)

*Mexican swine flu - is this the big one?*

I've always wanted to start a doom and gloom thread, so here is is!

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...le-killer-flu-in-mexico-us-20090424-ai36.html



> *Authorities rush to tackle killer flu in Mexico, US*
> April 25, 2009 - 6:54AM
> Mexican and US officials on Friday took emergency measures to contain outbreaks of a new multi-strain swine flu blamed for scores of deaths in Mexico and seven infections in the United States.
> The World Health Organization in Geneva said 60 people had died from suspected swine flu in Mexico, while Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova confirmed 16 deaths and said authorities were probing 50 more possible fatalities.
> ...




What I find slightly concerning is this article from some Aussies in 2001, which put Spanish flu down to pig flu RNA! Any scientists out there?

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1263-1918-spanish-influenza-pandemic-down-to-pig-flu-rna.html



> *1918 "Spanish" influenza pandemic down to pig flu RNA*
> 
> The joining of genetic sequences from pig and human influenza created the deadly strain that killed up to 40 million people around the world in 1918 and 1919, say Australian researchers.
> Unlike other flu outbreaks, which prey heavily on the old and the young, the 1918 "Spanish" flu killed many healthy people in their prime. "It tended to give people pneumonia," says virologist Mark Gibbs, who led the research at the Australian National University in Canberra. "That suggests that it infected much deeper in the lungs than influenza normally does - that it had a different tissue specificity."
> ...


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## UBIQUITOUS (25 April 2009)

*Re: Mexican swine flu - is this the big one?*



> I've always wanted to start a doom and gloom thread, so here is is!





..and then I find out that Metric beat me to starting the same topic by 3 minutes!! Any chance of having his rolled into mine??


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## metric (25 April 2009)

better yours is merged into mine....at least mine has a link to stocks .......

oh, tis done.


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## mr meathead (25 April 2009)

*Re: Mexican swine flu - is this the big one?*

watch for massive run on biota holding monday- according to some scientists in the know - this latest swine flu is a combination of humane pig and bird flu genetic material - and roches tamiflu is 99 % sure to be rendered useless very soon as it is already showing near 100% resistance to common H1N1 human flu world wide - leaving biotas relenza as the only anti viral to fight the ensueing pandemic which has started in mexico with 1000 infected incl 500 hospital staff and 68 dead as of today - plus spread to ca , tx and poss new york. WHO meeting tonight to decide on lifting pandemic alert from level 3 to poss 6 - sealing boarders mexico and usa if it speads to a third country we are likely to see major panic and in an already stressed economy it couldn't come at aworse time - unless you own bta or gsk shares of course.


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## metric (25 April 2009)

> This is the first time that we’ve seen an avian strain, two swine strains and a human strain,” said Daigle, adding that the virus had influenza strains from European and Asian swine, but not from North American swine.




strange that it has euro and asian pig strains but not a strain from the americas where it is supposed to have originated. many on the net are openly saying it is a weaponised flu virus.


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## Wysiwyg (25 April 2009)

I remember having a few chops at IMU during the bird flu scenario. They also have a porcine drug too but the trials and lead time with these companies is very very long.


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## mr meathead (25 April 2009)

for an answer to that check out henry nimens web site recombinomics - he should have the gene sequences worked out very soon


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## Sean K (26 April 2009)

*Re: Mexican swine flu - is this the big one?*



mr meathead said:


> watch for massive run on biota holding monday-



I agree, and could last a few days depending on the news out.

I'm going to Mexico on Friday so I might put a Relenza order in myself!


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## metric (26 April 2009)

*Re: Mexican swine flu - is this the big one?*



kennas said:


> I agree, and could last a few days depending on the news out.
> 
> I'm going to Mexico on Friday so I might put a Relenza order in myself!




and perhaps quarantine for you apon return...?


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## metric (26 April 2009)

pandemic flu model.....we are 14 days in.. http://www.lanl.gov/news/images/bird4x3red.mov


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## Calliope (26 April 2009)

I think the most disturbing aspect of the Mexican outback is that all the deaths so far have been otherwise healthy young adults. The majority of Spanish flu deaths were in the same age group. Millions of healthy young ex-servicemen who had survived WW 1 succumbed  to the flu.


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## metric (26 April 2009)

Calliope said:


> I think the most disturbing aspect of the Mexican outback is that all the deaths so far have been otherwise healthy young adults. The majority of Spanish flu deaths were in the same age group. Millions of healthy young ex-servicemen who had survived WW 1 succumbed  to the flu.




yes...flu fatalities occur when there is a cytokine storm in the body which happens if a persons immune system is very strong.

very young and older people seem to survive it better...just like 1918....


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## metric (26 April 2009)

sky news just reported a UK cabin crew member taken to hospital with flu like symptoms.......

someone is getting worried when an incident such as this makes news...


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## metric (26 April 2009)

current know outbreaks. pretty sure you can add the uk to this list...

Mexico City 

Imperial County, California

San Diego County, California

San Antonio, Texas

Long Island, New York

Queens, New York

Chappqua, New York

Kansas

Ontario, Canada


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...-die-swine-flu-outbreak-Cases-spread-U-S.html



> Cabin crew member in hospital after flight from swine flu-struck Mexico
> 
> World Health Organisation has warned countries to be on alert for any unusual flu outbreaks
> 
> ...


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## michael_selway (26 April 2009)

metric said:


> bio tech stocks running......?
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15182
> 
> http://www.statesman.com/news/content/news/stories/world/04/25/0425flu.html




Hm what specific stocks are FLU related?

*IMU - Imugene Limited (IMU) specialises in the development and commercialisation of animal health products for pigs and poultry, including vaccines and productivity enhancers. IMU also owns the worldwide rights to the Fowl Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for poultry and the Porcine Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for pigs.*

*BTA - Biota Holdings Limited (BTA) is an Australian based, anti-infective drug development company. They specialise in the discovery and development of pharmaceuticals, focusing on research for the treatment of viral respiratory diseases, particularly influenza.*

Any others?

Thanks

MS


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## metric (26 April 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hm what specific stocks are FLU related?
> 
> *IMU - Imugene Limited (IMU) specialises in the development and commercialisation of animal health products for pigs and poultry, including vaccines and productivity enhancers. IMU also owns the worldwide rights to the Fowl Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for poultry and the Porcine Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for pigs.*
> 
> ...




good post.


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## MrBurns (26 April 2009)

*Swine flu has pandemic potential.*

Forget nuclear bombs and the Taliban, if anything will wipe us from the face of the earth it will be something like this.............one day......



> The World Health Organisation (WHO) says a new strain of the flu virus, suspected of killing more than 60 people in Mexico, is a potential pandemic.
> 
> The WHO says the outbreak is already an international public health emergency.




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/26/2552746.htm


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## MrBurns (26 April 2009)

*Re: Swine flu has pandemic potential.*



MrBurns said:


> Forget nuclear bombs and the Taliban, if anything will wipe us from the face of the earth it will be something like this.............one day......
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/26/2552746.htm




Wow the mods around here are quick, I started a new thread on this subject not seeing this one and they flicked my post over to here immediately, big brother is watching


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## metric (26 April 2009)

yours was the 3rd started mr burns....


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## Glen48 (26 April 2009)

Accchoo.... sorry I must run my Anti virius more often. Can we put Robots in to quarantine as well?


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## metric (26 April 2009)

for those interested, an alex jones, special edition, live radio broadcast, interviewing people in texas and mexico on what they are seeing on the streets regarding the swine flu..

http://www.prisonplanet.com/


.


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## metric (26 April 2009)

dont you just love this series of coincidences......you know the drills before the 'event'....remember the 911 drill on 911. the london bombing drill on the same day, now we have a pandemic drill in texas.....(how convenient) http://www.imperialvalleynews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5270&Itemid=2

and if youve ever read about the port arthur massacre, you know of the 'drills' that went on there also...


hers a helpful site...http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/


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## moXJO (26 April 2009)

I think its being blown out of proportion a bit in the media. Keep an eye on nano mask levels though


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## Sean K (26 April 2009)

Wonder why Reinhardt didn't see this.


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## metric (26 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Wonder why Reinhardt didn't see this.




you can wonder that while you are in mexico.....lol


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## lthigham (26 April 2009)

Biota stocks seem likely to be a good buy considering the recent news of the failure of the other drug with flu and possibility of it failing with the current outbreak if the swine flu evolves. Expect to see a significant increase in Relenza worldwide.


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## So_Cynical (26 April 2009)

Channel 9 just did a news promo with 3 story's...the flu story in third place. 

Boat people arrivals seem to be more important.


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## Temjin (26 April 2009)

I heard the latest flu vaccine for this year season has some ability to resist that new strain, but not completely. 

Damn, personally, it's not economic depression, terrorist attacks, meteorite strikes or nuclear blasts that scare me, it's these frigging invisible bugs. I say we should PREPARE to isolate our country in case this gets worse. Now we need that replacement 9 submarines soon!



			
				Glen48 said:
			
		

> Accchoo.... sorry I must run my Anti virius more often. Can we put Robots in to quarantine as well?




That's just sooo cruel.


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## trillionaire#1 (26 April 2009)

holly crap KENNAS be careful over there ,no hand shaking ,no kissing.
maybe you could give us all some insight in to the behaviour/responses
of the locals when your there.


world could be facing devastating pandemic,bigpond finds BEA ARTHURS death  bigger news.....


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## disarray (26 April 2009)

Pandemic 2

make your own disease and wipe out humanity in this cool little flash game


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## MrBurns (26 April 2009)

kennas go to the doc and get Tamiflu

http://www.pandemictoolkit.com/about-tamiflu/about-whatistamiflu.aspx

I've still got some from a trip to Europe, just in case.

I guess it works with this new one ?


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## metric (26 April 2009)

10 new zealand students have tested positive for flu after visiting mexico. it is believed likely it is the swine flu. tests are ongoing. none are critically sick...(abc tv news)


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## metric (26 April 2009)

i'll bet its here in oz already also.....



> Swine flu fears as NZ students quarantined
> Posted 2 hours 55 minutes ago
> Updated 2 hours 9 minutes ago
> 
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/26/2552882.htm?section=world


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## MrBurns (26 April 2009)

At least it didnt come from Asia this time, that would have finished me with that part of the world.


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## metric (26 April 2009)

this story imoving fast. suspected outbreaks everywhere. the first wave isnt the most deadly either......

the london marathon is on tomorrow....


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## MrBurns (26 April 2009)

Tamiflu apparently works.


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## saiter (26 April 2009)

Well at least we can be thankful that we're living in Australia, one of few to be surrounded entirely by sea 

If we ever do get a worldwide outbreak, our response would be much better than those of other nations. We have the expertise and we have a relatively small population to take care of.


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## sails (26 April 2009)

saiter said:


> Well at least we can be thankful that we're living in Australia, one of few to be surrounded entirely by sea
> 
> If we ever do get a worldwide outbreak, our response would be much better than those of other nations. We have the expertise and we have a relatively small population to take care of.




I dunno, Saiter.  Our hospital/medical systems seem to be struggling to keep up as it is.


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## So_Cynical (26 April 2009)

saiter said:


> Well at least we can be thankful that we're living in Australia, one of few to be surrounded entirely by sea




That's pretty much irrelevant...by the time the Govt closes the airports etc
it will almost certainly be too late.

I'm with Metric...its prob already here.


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## moXJO (26 April 2009)

A lot of people have recovered after being infected from this new flu. Unless it mutates into something more sinister I wouldn’t be too worried just yet. Basic precautions at this stage imo. 

I would like to know the stats of recovery vs death once infected.


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## bleach8 (26 April 2009)

What will happen to the Share market tomorrow? anyone can remember what was happened to the share market during SARS? Which sections will hold up well during this kind of situation?


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## drillinto (26 April 2009)

The World Health Organization(WHO) has its Annual Health Assembly on 18-27 May, 2009. Is someone pumping the porcine flu story to attract the world's attention to that moribund Organization ?


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## singlefished (27 April 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hm what specific stocks are FLU related?
> 
> *IMU - Imugene Limited (IMU) specialises in the development and commercialisation of animal health products for pigs and poultry, including vaccines and productivity enhancers. IMU also owns the worldwide rights to the Fowl Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for poultry and the Porcine Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for pigs.*
> 
> ...




I was living and working in Singabore when SARS broke out about 5~6 years ago.... sales of thermometers and disposable respiratory face masks through the roof!

Not sure who produces/sells these things but I suppose if you found out you could track back and see if the rapid jump in sales had any impact on their share prices.


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## nunthewiser (27 April 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hm what specific stocks are FLU related?
> 
> *IMU - Imugene Limited (IMU) specialises in the development and commercialisation of animal health products for pigs and poultry, including vaccines and productivity enhancers. IMU also owns the worldwide rights to the Fowl Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for poultry and the Porcine Adenoviral Vector Delivery System for pigs.*
> 
> ...





BDM also ... illiquid , ugly , tightly held.....i keep ramping this sucka but no one listens .. i hold as a park and wait .

maybe worth a research but hey it probably wont suit many here as one needs patience and sneaky smaller accumulated entrys.


anyways DYOR blah blah blah


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## Sean K (27 April 2009)

Cripes, 81 now dead and students from NZ having just returned from Mexico showing symptoms. Mexico City schools and universities closed. US hasn't issued any travel warnings yet, or quarantines, but looks on the cards. 

Supposed to be flying into Cancun on Friday.... Long way from Mexico City, but .. Hmmm.


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## metric (27 April 2009)

2 suspected cases in france...

http://www.prisonplanet.com/france-finds-2-suspected-cases-of-swine-flu.html



> Fears that swine flu may have spread around the world have intensified amid a growing number of suspected cases as far afield as New Zealand, France, Israel and America.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/h...-killer-swine-flu-as-pandemic-fears-rise.html


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## metric (27 April 2009)

as reinhardt says.........FOLLOW THE MONEY...!!!! colim powel and al gore set to benefit from bird flu. al HAS been a good boy of late....



> Notable members Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers of the firm include partners John Doerr and Brook Byers, as well as high-profile individuals such as Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy (who joined as partner in January 2005), former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell (who joined in July 2005 in the newly-created position of "strategic limited partner"), and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, who joined as partner in November 2007 as part of a collaboration between KPCB and Gore's firm Generation Investment Management (GIM) to promote green technology, business and policy solutions. In 2008, John Gage of Sun Microsystems joined Gore as a Partner.



WIKIPEDIA

Venture capital firm set to reap rewards on swine flu



> LOS ANGELES, April 24 (Reuters) - The swine flu outbreak is likely to benefit one of the most prolific and successful venture capital firms in the United States: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Thomson Reuters Private Equity Week reported on Friday.
> 
> Shares of the two public companies in the firm's portfolio of eight Pandemic and Bio Defense companies -- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX.O) and Novavax (NVAX.O) -- jumped Friday on news that the swine flu killed a reported 60 people in Mexico and has infected people in the United States.





TAMIFLU....



> Rumsfeld isn't the only political heavyweight benefiting from demand for Tamiflu, which is manufactured and marketed by Swiss pharma giant Roche. (Gilead receives a royalty from Roche equaling about 10% of sales.) Former Secretary of State George Shultz, who is on Gilead's board, has sold more than $7 million worth of Gilead since the beginning of 2005.
> 
> Another board member is the wife of former California Gov. Pete Wilson.
> 
> ...




http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/newsmakers/fortune_rumsfeld/

this would be an absolute rabbit warren if one bothered to do some serious research. it would be enlightening to look at board members, and other companies they are affiliated with..


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## metric (27 April 2009)

scotland and spain have reported swine flu...


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## Temjin (27 April 2009)

I've already stocked up on masks and will be bringing a few with me when I go out, especially to work while on public transport. You never know which idiot, who after suffering from a flu like symptoms, would still head off to work on public transports because he/she might afraid of being made redundant and would rather risk the rest of the population with the virus than losing a job. 

Cleaning your hand is probably the best one to avoid getting infected though. So time to get some more of those non-water based alcohol washing liquid.

Gloom and doom all the way!


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## shag (27 April 2009)

it will be well spread by now. mexico got onto it very late. nz is very good on border control, and small, so i'd say its well gone by now.
maybe mexico is good, as if u get a weak version, like it seems presently, and it mutates, then u r more likely to fight off a nasty mutated version.


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## metric (27 April 2009)

> Deadly swine flu could be here
> 
> FOUR suspected cases of swine flu are being tested in Australia as a top virologist warns the deadly virus is probably already here.




www.news.com.au


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## trillionaire#1 (27 April 2009)

apparently the spanish flu of 1918 killed about 40-50 million
and thats in a time were high speed global travel was nil.

fingers crossed this isnt comparable.


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## metric (27 April 2009)

google map of flu spread....http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=U...0649,-116.139221&spn=151.498363,358.59375&z=1


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## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

Perhaps this is what all those 'coffins' in some US state were for Metric...

You know all that conspiracy stuff, im sure you know what im talking about, cause i certainly dont


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## Prospector (27 April 2009)

And Biota up 78% so far.  At least it started in relatively advanced country so the prevention side will be started immediately.  If this had started in rural China, well, who knows when we would have heard about it.


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## metric (27 April 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Perhaps this is what all those 'coffins' in some US state were for Metric...
> 
> You know all that conspiracy stuff, im sure you know what im talking about, cause i certainly dont





they sure will come in handy prawn?? http://www.youtube.com/results?search_type=&search_query=fema+coffins&aq=f

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeqjykY5wPk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wV3vc9kDEM&feature=related


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## metric (27 April 2009)

and of course the fema camps are already set up. complete with incinerators, steel turnstiles, barb fences, etc, etc. all connected to rail....

six minute video, will blow your mind. watch it.....bet you cant come to another conclusion...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P-hvPJPTi4&feature=related


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## moXJO (27 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Cripes, 81 now dead .




Only 20 are confirmed to have died from the flu. The rest are suspected.


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## michael_selway (27 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> BDM also ... illiquid , ugly , tightly held.....i keep ramping this sucka but no one listens .. i hold as a park and wait .
> 
> maybe worth a research but hey it probably wont suit many here as one needs patience and sneaky smaller accumulated entrys.
> 
> ...




Nice run today BTA!









> *Business Description *
> Biota Holdings Limited (BTA) is an Australian based, anti-infective drug development company. They specialise in the discovery and development of pharmaceuticals, focusing on research for the treatment of viral respiratory diseases, particularly influenza.
> 
> *Company Strategy *
> Biotas strategy is to continue drug discovery and product development programs in antivirals, particularly respiratory antivirals, and to release shareholder value from the processes of discovery, product development and the early clinical phases of drug development. The company is focused on anti-infectives and has developed drug candidates for the treatment of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus and hepatitis C infections. In the long run, BTA intends to increase the number of projects within the company?s portfolio and to extend selected products further into clinic. This should help to improve the overall risk balance within the portfolio. Biota Holdings reported net loss of $6.49m for the year ended 30 June 2008. Revenues from ordinary activities were $44.99m, down 21% from last year. Diluted EPS was (3.5) cents compared to 11.0 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $4.82m compared to $20.98m last year. No dividend was declared.





*BTA - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -3.6 -1.6 2.9 7.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0*


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## metric (27 April 2009)

for those interested. there is a doctor speaking on the virus (swine flu) on alex jones.seems the virus can cross into animals because of its make up. also saying this first wave is not the deadly one....

very informative, really knows his stuff. on right now 10.46... www.prisonplanet.com  click on the radio link on the right of the web page.


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## metric (27 April 2009)

On the Flu Bug and Those Disappearing Microbiologists 
Text size   


Jolly Roger
April 26, 2009 


If you sell crack, join a gang, or rob the mob you can expect to die a violent death, but if you listen to your mother, eat all the right foods, and study hard in college to become a microbiologist, you should expect to live to a ripe old age and die peacefully.



> That being the case, a few eyebrows were raised when five microbiologists either disappeared or died mysteriously violent deaths in 2001. A short time later the number rose to 19, and then 29.
> 
> They were found stabbed to death in the trunks of cars, thrown off bridges, or they wrapped their cars around trees after their brake fluid disappeared. Once again, this is the stuff of Hollywood spy stories, and not the way you would expect a microbiologist to give up the ghost.
> 
> ...





People who are becoming accustomed to the practices and motives of our criminal government tried to warn you of an impending flu pandemic, but your TV training taught you to dismiss them all as "crazy conspiracy theorists," and you naturally associated all their warnings with stories of Bigfoot and UFO abductions, just as you were trained to do.

The good folks of FEMA predicted a need for a few million plastic coffins, which are now spread out across the country, but despite this revelation, most of America still thinks their biggest concern is a toss up between the Super Bowl and American Idol.

Well it seems as if the crazy conspiracy theorists were right again, because the world-wide flu pandemic they were warning you about has been unleashed, and it will dominate the headlines until millions, if not billions of people are dead. It won’t be stopped because no one with the means to stop it wants to stop it.

Wash your hands often, pull your kids out of school, avoid crowds, if not people altogether, avoid alcohol or drugs that will weaken your resistance, and stay well-nourished.

Two of the goals here are to cull the population, and to encourage general mayhem and misery that only a World Government can save you from. You’ll be so worn out and tired of death and depression that you’ll offer little resistance to the new order. The economic collapse and World War three are part of the same plan, and it’s all been tried before. It’s the same crew behind this latest attempt, and it’s not difficult to see who’s behind it all, once again.

This flu pandemic that will soon cause people to drop like flies is no mutated bird flu. It’s a genetically engineered virus designed to kill as many people as possible. And after people do start dropping like flies, political dissidents will be accused of being flu carriers and no one will object to them being hauled away. Good luck. — Jolly Roger

Here’s an interesting link:
http://www.legitgov.org/flu_oddities_shortnews.html
if you start at the bottom of the page and work your way up you’ll see a nice collection of news articles that document the entire process of creating and testing a flu bug that will wipe out millions of people.
(or at least that part of the process that’s revealed to the public)


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## MrBurns (27 April 2009)

Is is mere co incidence that this should happen while Labor are in power ?


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## Agentm (27 April 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Perhaps this is what all those 'coffins' in some US state were for Metric...
> 
> You know all that conspiracy stuff, im sure you know what im talking about, cause i certainly dont




those boxes are for the wall street bankers..

one by one they will get them all..


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## moXJO (27 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Is is mere co incidence that this should happen while Labor are in power ?




ROFL


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## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

Ahh the conspiracy theorists love it dont they. I guess they have to be right eventually...


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## metric (27 April 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Ahh the conspiracy theorists love it dont they. I guess they have to be right eventually...




so now prawn you are saying 'conspiracy theorists' ie; those that beleive diana was murdered, jfk was murdered by officials, 911 was an inside job, etc, etc, are happy because people are dying of a flu pandemic......

mmmmm, seems someone is always trying to destroy the image of those who dont conform to popular thinking...


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## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

No im saying they love to get a hold of any event and blow it out of proportion. IE - Bird Flu, wasnt that supposed to be the last pandemic set to wipe out the world? Or y2k etc

Im not saying they are right or wrong. I have no idea, i just think its amusing how at the slightest hint of something they all claim to be right.


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## nomore4s (27 April 2009)

metric said:


> On the Flu Bug and Those Disappearing Microbiologists




lol metric, I'm surprised you can even leave your house with all these parnoid conspiracy theories you sprout on about. It seems someone is out to - destroy the financial system, kill off millions of people, destroy the world, bring in a world government, destroy the universe, sabotage the mighty Hawthorn Hawks premiership defence. 

Just where is Doctor Evil?

How do you sleep at night with all this rubbish running through your head?


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## metric (27 April 2009)

the problem with this flu is it seems manufactured. 



> clues that the virus may be a synthetic creation are already manifesting.
> 
> According to reports, the virus is  a “never-before-seen form of the flu that combines pig, bird and human viruses” which consists of an intercontinental mix of viruses from North America, Europe and Asia.
> 
> ...




http://www.prisonplanet.com/medical-director-swine-flu-was-cultured-in-a-laboratory.html


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## metric (27 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> lol metric, I'm surprised you can even leave your house with all these parnoid conspiracy theories you sprout on about. It seems someone is out to - destroy the financial system, kill off millions of people, destroy the world, bring in a world government,
> How do you sleep at night with all this rubbish running through your head?




i sleep quite well, as i take from it only that which feels right.....

i dont believe everything in mainstream either, like the many devotees do here.....


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## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

nomore4s said:


> How do you sleep at night with all this rubbish running through your head?




Or what are you actually doing about it? If it comes to Aus are you stocked up and able to live by yourself for a year or so?


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Or what are you actually doing about it? If it comes to Aus are you stocked up and able to live by yourself for a year or so?




yes i have put some plans into action....as others here have. mad if you dont.


----------



## moXJO (27 April 2009)

metric said:


> the problem with this flu is it seems manufactured.




I heard something similar from a personal source a while back that this was a direction apparently whispered about. 

Out of interest did any of the stocks that deal with influenza have a price spike last week?


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

talk about plan ahead. humour me prawn and please watch at least 3 mins of this vid. what plans would this facillity be made for...?

also, it is things like this that cause people to did deeper, and become 'conspiracy theorists'.....and they have good reason.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P-hvPJPTi4&feature=related


----------



## spooly74 (27 April 2009)

metric said:


> also, it is things like this that cause people to did deeper, and become 'conspiracy theorists'.....and they have good reason.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0P-hvPJPTi4&feature=related





Good reason? How many people have died from this outside Mexico? 

I'm not so sure this flu is going to ramp up the extinction levels anticipated by networks or lunacy theorists. The sample size outside of Mexico is too low to put any hard figure on mortality rates, for the time being.

Lunacy theorists on the other hand, love to try and make people sick with worry.


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

This has the potential to be a massive ball of extremely hot air, imo.

There are 20 _confirmed_ dead from what I've read. In Mexico. Where exactly, and under what circumstances? Perhaps there was no health care available to these people. Perhaps they relied on traditional medicine (read witchdoctor/shaman) to heal them? 

I have a grave fear that this is going to turn into an absolute media driven scare mongering headline grabbing debarcle that will cause untold economic hardship to many indistries particularly Mexico's tourist industry. All in the name of a story. 

On the other hand, we all may die. 

I'll probably be first as I fly to Mexico in 4 days.


----------



## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

In order to keep this thread on the swine flu topic and not go too far off track i have created another thread here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15258


----------



## Broadside (27 April 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> In order to keep this thread on the swine flu topic and not go too far off track i have created another thread here:
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15258




I suppose Spanish flu after WW1 was also media driven conspiracy 

pandemics are inevitable from time to time best to be prudent rather than dismissive


----------



## Sean K (27 April 2009)

Broadside said:


> I suppose Spanish flu after WW1 was also media driven conspiracy
> 
> pandemics are inevitable from time to time best to be prudent rather than dismissive



Broady, you're comparing the media circus of 2009 to 1915 ish.  OK


----------



## Broadside (27 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Broady, you're comparing the media circus of 2009 to 1915 ish.  OK




no, I am saying one of these days Chicken Little will be right

sometimes pandemics do happen...hopefully not in our lifetime


----------



## prawn_86 (27 April 2009)

Broadside said:


> no, I am saying one of these days Chicken Little will be right
> 
> sometimes pandemics do happen...hopefully not in our lifetime




Totally agree but lets not blow things out of proportion early.

Like the boy who cried wolf, one day they will be right


----------



## moXJO (27 April 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> lets not blow things out of proportion early.




The advice above sums it up.

Now who is taking bets on Kennas survial rate?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (27 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Broady, you're comparing the media circus of 2009 to 1915 ish.  OK




I think back then the media used courier pigeons to carry the news stories back and forth, unfortunately they also carried the bird flu with them thus spreading the disease :


----------



## kincella (27 April 2009)

this is on the BBC site....direct from people affected....heres a Doctor's report
is that scary enough for you?

I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff. 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

spooly74 said:


> Good reason? How many people have died from this outside Mexico?
> 
> I'm not so sure this flu is going to ramp up the extinction levels anticipated by networks or lunacy theorists. The sample size outside of Mexico is too low to put any hard figure on mortality rates, for the time being.
> 
> Lunacy theorists on the other hand, love to try and make people sick with worry.




the good reason i was refering to was the fema camp in the vid..

lunacy theorist...lol

martin luther was a 'lunacy theoirist'....imagine..he believed that the catholic church was scamming people by selling tickets into heaven a few hundred years ago!! pure blasphemy!! lol lol lol


----------



## kincella (27 April 2009)

heres proof the anti virus are not working
...from the same bbc site

 I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

WOW..! if you looked at the google virus map this morning, have a look now...

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=U...0649,-116.139221&spn=151.498363,358.59375&z=1


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/h...mbie-city-as-residents-hide-behind-doors.html

Swine flu: Mexico City becomes 'strange zombie city' as residents hide behind doors 




> The normally bustling streets of Mexico City were virtually empty yesterday, with millions preferring to stay in their houses rather than risk contagion from the killer swine flu.
> 
> By Ioan Grillo in Mexico City
> Last Updated: 11:08PM BST 26 Apr 2009
> ...




36 hours later, the original casualty number of 81 is still being quoted....


----------



## spooly74 (27 April 2009)

metric said:


> the good reason i was refering to was the fema camp in the vid..




From the video, that's an Amtrak storage facility. Is it not?


----------



## kincella (27 April 2009)

was there an asx listed company that was developing some sort of sensors that could detect body temperature at airports....when the bird flue thing was around ???...I know there are unlisted companies


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

kincella said:


> was there an asx listed company that was developing some sort of sensors that could detect body temperature at airports....when the bird flue thing was around ???...I know there are unlisted companies




already deveveloped. i saw another article somewhere today...cant findit, but i googled this one....


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

> Swine flu death toll in Mexico rises to 103 27 Apr 2009 03:02:47 GMT
> Source: Reuters
> MEXICO CITY, April 26 (Reuters) - The death toll in Mexico from an outbreak of a new type of swine flu has risen to 103 people, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said on Sunday.
> 
> Cordova told Mexican television that around 400 people were in hospital out of a total of around 1,600 suspected cases.




http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26489254.htm


----------



## Broadside (27 April 2009)

metric said:


> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/h...mbie-city-as-residents-hide-behind-doors.html
> 
> Swine flu: Mexico City becomes 'strange zombie city' as residents hide behind doors




Ah crap this virus turns people into Zombies.  Hope they're the slow shambling ones rather than the quick silent ones in 28 Days Later!  :


----------



## drsmith (27 April 2009)

Slow shamblers from the original Dawn Of The Dead (I think).


----------



## moXJO (27 April 2009)

drsmith said:


> Slow shamblers from the original Dawn Of The Dead (I think).




No that’s the public servants from the ATO


----------



## metric (27 April 2009)

Australia braces for possible 'global flu epidemic'


Posted Sun Apr 26, 2009 6:33pm AEST 
Updated Sun Apr 26, 2009 9:33pm AEST 




> In Mexico, at least 80 people are thought to have died from the human form of swine flu (AFP: Luis Acosta )
> 
> Video: Global flu pandemic fears (ABC News) Video: Mexican flu triggers global alert (ABC News) Related Story: Swine flu declared 'public health emergency' Related Story: Swine flu fears as NZ students quarantined Health officials in Australia say they are on standby to implement procedures at the nation's borders if needed, to help guard against any outbreak of a new strain of swine flu.
> 
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/26/2552922.htm


----------



## Datsun Disguise (27 April 2009)

moXJO said:


> No that’s the public servants from the ATO




jeez mate - if the pig flu doesn't get you first, you are gonna have the ATO zombies on your ass for sure.

good luck man.

:hide:

(I understand they are the Slow shamblers - but very persistent)


----------



## moXJO (27 April 2009)

Datsun Disguise said:


> jeez mate - if the pig flu doesn't get you first, you are gonna have the ATO zombies on your ass for sure.
> 
> good luck man.
> 
> ...




Ahhem amend that to center link staff

To appease my taxation masters I shall burn a small business pty ltd company and a sole trader as an offering for forgiveness. I will also only use the requested black pen on all further BAS statements and not the blue one.

:hide:


----------



## JTLP (28 April 2009)

Have not read the thread but just spoke to a friend in Mexico who said the following (from Mexico City):

- Nearly all shops, restaurants, nightclubs and even zoo's are closed
- A city that took us probably 4 hours to drive across (and close to a population of 25 million people) is a ghost town with barely any traffic
- People have been told to stay indoors and have no contact with others
- She said it is literally like the city has frozen...everybody is now living in some sort of fear

Seems pretty intense...have to feel for the poor souls.

Apparently the US issued a Public Health Emergency or something of that ilk.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 April 2009)

anyone here read "the stand " by stephen king?.......

sure is rather spooky the description of the city as above


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

swine flu deaths rise to 149

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8021483.stm


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> swine flu deaths rise to 149
> 
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8021483.stm



*Suspected *swine flu.



> a health minister has revealed that the toll of suspected swine flu deaths has risen to 149.




The vast majority of those suspected to have caught this haven't even needed hospitalisation from what I can make out. 

And the strain that has been tested outside of Mexico City hasn't been as severe for some reason. US health staff have flown to Mexico City to try and find out why.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

after recieving my latest infraction, i now agree with you kennas that the flu is not a concern and encourage you to go to mexico......soon. lol


i thought the comsec hacker, personal security alert was in need of its own title, for obvious reasons....


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (28 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> anyone here read "the stand " by stephen king?.......
> 
> sure is rather spooky the description of the city as above




..or Camus' 'The Plague'. Although that involved rats maybe it will mutate into swinorodent flu.

On a serious note, I am preempting government ineptitude indealing with this and so would like my own supply of Relenza. Anyone know whether I can just buy  some over the counter at any Pharmacy in Oz?


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

ring your doc, tell him you are going overseas and need some anti-viral. get the script and find a chemist that has some. do it quick, you arent the only one with the idea...


----------



## shag (28 April 2009)

they rnt worried about this strain so much, but worried that the more people it touches, the more likely it will mutate into a real nasty version.
it being communicaive between people and its base genes r the issue. it will likely quieten down for a bit then maybe rear its nasty head again if we are unluckly.
at least the world has responded reasonably quickly and efficiently this time.


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> ring your doc, tell him you are going overseas and need some anti-viral. get the script and find a chemist that has some. do it quick, you arent the only one with the idea...





Haha Metric..I take my hat off to you. Doommonger number 1!


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

doomonger.....NUMBER 1..!! lol

or just the best informed..? 

well, you did ask how to get some anti-viral. now you shoot the messenger.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

here is todays google map of flu cases..http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=U...0649,-116.139221&spn=151.498363,358.59375&z=1


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> doomonger.....NUMBER 1..!! lol
> 
> or just the best informed..?



You plow a lot of fields metric, but so far you have displayed an inability to identify the wheat from the chaff. 

Still waiting for Reinhardt's armageddon day. 

I suppose he'll claim this Babe flu thing is it.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/  14 days he has on his site. thats 14 left to go. but if he is right, of course, YOU WILL CLAIM, it was bird flu that done it? 

please point out where ive not sorted properly....?


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/  14 days he has on his site. thats 14 left to go. but if he is right, of course, YOU WILL CLAIM, it was bird flu that done it?
> 
> please point out where ive not sorted properly....?



Reinhardt is shaff metric. 

Do you know what his latest claim is yet?

Any hints?


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

chaff is YOUR OPINION...

latest claim...no i dont. just has the 14 days to go on his site. and like it or not, has has made many correct predictions.

also, i was barred from a web site spawned by rs 'deciples' because i dared question his motives and other stuff. but i still think he has something to offer..


----------



## Prospector (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> ring your doc, tell him you are going overseas and need some anti-viral. get the script and find a chemist that has some. do it quick, you arent the only one with the idea...




Actually, I did exactly that the last time bird flu was running rampant, supposedly. We were travelling to China for work. I did manage to get some Relenza from the US. Even with a script there were no pharmacies in Australia that could supply it. It is out of date now, but suspect the shelf life is longer than stated.  It will be too late now, the Govt took control of all supplies a few years ago.

But how many people die in the normal flu season?  Isnt it in the hundreds in Australia alone?  Or is there more to this than we are being told.


----------



## shag (28 April 2009)

last time they were not ready, and seemingly tamiflu is very difficult to synthesis and ramp up production. this time or next time there will be loads of the stuff, esp in aus where they make the alternative plus vacines.
but even last time it wasnt overly difficult to get the stuff, and the drug and pharmacy companies loved it, a hundred buks from each punter.
they seem to prefere to use tamiflu for this outbreak too. its easy to get with a script.


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

Prospector said:


> But how many people die in the normal flu season?  Isnt it in the hundreds in Australia alone?  Or is there more to this than we are being told.



Worldwide it's probably 100s of 1000s.

From Wiki:

_The annual human flu in the U.S. "results in approximately 36,000 deaths and more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. In addition to this human toll, influenza is annually responsible for a total cost of over $10 billion in the U.S." [4]._

So the 150 so far is a drop in the bucket.


----------



## moXJO (28 April 2009)

Wonder if this will cause enough panic for the next leg down on the dow.
No US citizens have died from this flu yet. Seems a bit of fear pushing by media at this stage.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25397421-23109,00.html


> Of the 40 cases, we are only aware of one individual who was hospitalised, and all people who have been infected and were sick have recovered," Mr Besser said. Those affected ranged from seven to 54 years old.


----------



## juddy (28 April 2009)

Yesterday, my doc refused to give me a script to cover my family. Apparently had been refusing similar requests all day. Is this a directive from above?


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

juddy said:


> Yesterday, my doc refused to give me a script to cover my family. Apparently had been refusing similar requests all day. Is this a directive from above?



Probably because it's just not required.

At this point the media are just sucking it for all it's worth. It's selling newspapers right now.

Hope I'm right.


----------



## shag (28 April 2009)

juddy said:


> Yesterday, my doc refused to give me a script to cover my family. Apparently had been refusing similar requests all day. Is this a directive from above?




yr quack is just a tightarse. 
it is a bit of a waste of money, but go to a scriptor(quack who is known to hand out scripts for anything) or use one of those dodgy internet quack cum pharmacy sites.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

just spoke to the chemist about getting a tamiflu script filled. they had none in stock so rang the distributor......the distributor said someone bought 1000 units yesterday and cleaned them out.

whats the bet it was the government..?


----------



## nunthewiser (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> just spoke to the chemist about getting a tamiflu script filled. they had none in stock so rang the distributor......the distributor said someone bought 1000 units yesterday and cleaned them out.
> 
> whats the bet it was the government..?





Sorry mate it was me 


we at the New world order cult ( we dont like to call it a cult ) are stocking up bigtime ....... 

we have been waiting for this event for some time now and  would like to formally invite all females aged between the age of 21- 42 to come join our happy little gathering in our compound based on top of a big hill in an undisclosed location .

please pc for further details i.e work duties and payment plans

thankyou

A.nun


----------



## Julia (28 April 2009)

juddy said:


> Yesterday, my doc refused to give me a script to cover my family. Apparently had been refusing similar requests all day. Is this a directive from above?



If GP's handed out scripts to everyone who thought maybe they might need them some time most of them would simply be wasted.   Prospector said she had obtained some when going to China (very reasonable precaution ) but it has never been used and is now out of date.

Might be worth getting the basic flu vaccine which apparently could have some cross-over effect on the dreaded swine thing.  No one quite knows, apparently.

The Queensland Health Minister was yesterday boasting that all is good in this fine State because we have a whole 20,000 courses stockpiled.   That's probably fine for what may well turn out to be an overblown fear mongering hype, but if it does become a pandemic then 20,000 doses throughout the whole of Qld aren't going to be a hell of a lot of help!


----------



## Calliope (28 April 2009)

All the deaths so far from swine flu have all been in Mexico. All cases identified as swine flu in the USA have been mild cases.

 It seems to  me that the answer to the outbreak and it's mortality lies in finding what do those who have died have in common that the mild cases do not share.


----------



## Agentm (28 April 2009)

i had a mild cold yesterday. it was a swine

today i am fine..


----------



## lthigham (28 April 2009)

What must be very concerning for most countries is that Tamiflu, the antiviral drug that makes up most of their antiviral stockpiles, is becoming    susceptible to increasing resistance of the influenza strands (e.g. bird). 

Relenza, in comparison, seems not to suffer from resistance.

During the continuing evolution of the swine flu, will Tamiflu become useless?


----------



## Sean K (28 April 2009)

The 'Smart Traveler' web site is obviously managed by a very experienced, and _smart_, person. Still no mention of the pig flu on their front page. Someone is going to be canned.


----------



## michael_selway (28 April 2009)

kennas said:


> The 'Smart Treveler' web site is obviously managed by a very experienced, and _smart_, person. Still no mention of the pig flu on their front page. Someone is going to be canned.




Hm no one mentioned RBY?







Rockeby Biomed (RBY) is a Singapore-based biotechnology company specialised in the research, development and marketing of rapid testing technologies for infectious diseases in animals and humans. The companys main market is in-vitro diagnostic testing which includes serology testing in hospitals as well as point of care rapid tests for use by healthcare professionals and consumers inside and outside of traditional healthcare environments. The companys current products include SysCan3, CanDia5, Avian Flu, OraQuick, and Pepp.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/swineflu_guidance_labs_20090425.pdf

Thanks

MS


----------



## shag (28 April 2009)

lthigham said:


> What must be very concerning for most countries is that Tamiflu, the antiviral drug that makes up most of their antiviral stockpiles, is becoming    susceptible to increasing resistance of the influenza strands (e.g. bird).
> 
> Relenza, in comparison, seems not to suffer from resistance.
> 
> During the continuing evolution of the swine flu, will Tamiflu become useless?




why then r all the gov's using tamiflu/oseltamivir then on infected cases and/or suspected cases? even ausralia where the alernative is made.
obviously over time bugs will become resistant. bacteria and viruses.
and i'm sure they r aware of that so not scarmongering people needlessly.
in events like this, u use yr best form of defence, tamiflu, to knock out yr infected area immediately.


----------



## Calliope (28 April 2009)

Julia said:


> Might be worth getting the basic flu vaccine which apparently could have some cross-over effect on the dreaded swine thing.  No one quite knows, apparently.




Experts say that the seasonal flu vaccines, freely administered here to the young and the aged( i.e the more vulnerable) are not believed to offer any protection against the swine flu.

And yet I heard on the radio this morning that in Mexico these same age groups who received these vaccines during their winter have had few fatalities. It is very unlikely that the young healthy adults who are succumbing would ever had the vaccine.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Sorry mate it was me
> 
> 
> we at the New world order cult ( we dont like to call it a cult ) are stocking up bigtime .......
> ...




when i spoke to the chemist i said it was someone who was speculating on the price...to sell on ebay. she said 'no, it was probably the gov'.... i thought it made sense..


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2009)

I'll say this again, everyone should go to the doc *NOW *and get Tamiflu, if this does get worse here it will all disappear overnight.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

mr burns. i got our scripts filled today...after much ringing round. most chemists have none. if they have some, its one packet only. today is tuesday, this broke on mainstream over the weekend, (alternate media has watched it since mid last week) and most of the tamiflu has been bought YESTERDAY, so your chances of getting it after tomorrow are slim.especially if the gov is buying it from wholesalers like the chemist suggested....

oh, and its a bargain at $53 per script.....


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2009)

metric said:


> mr burns. i got our scripts filled today...after much ringing round. most chemists have none. if they have some, its one packet only. today is tuesday, this broke on mainstream over the weekend, (alternate media has watched it since mid last week) and most of the tamiflu has been bought YESTERDAY, so your chances of getting it after tomorrow are slim.especially if the gov is buying it from wholesalers like the chemist suggested....
> 
> oh, and its a bargain at $53 per script.....




Well done and if you look at the use by date you'll see it lasts for years, we bought ours during the bird flu drama and it's still good for the swine flu years later.


----------



## metric (28 April 2009)

an updated look at the flu spread...http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...,358.59375&z=1


----------



## Aussiejeff (28 April 2009)

Ummm. Hate to dump on the party, but this is direct from the horses ar.. err... mouth - the World Health Organization website - 



> *Influenza rapidly spreads around the world in seasonal epidemics and imposes a considerable economic burden in the form of hospital and other health care costs and lost productivity*.
> 
> In annual influenza epidemics 5-15% of the population are affected with upper respiratory tract infections. Hospitalization and deaths mainly occur in high-risk groups (elderly, chronically ill). Although difficult to assess, *these annual epidemics are thought to result in between three and five million cases of severe illness and [size=+1]between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths every year[/size] around the world*. Most deaths currently associated with influenza in industrialized countries occur among the elderly over 65 years of age.




These startling statistics stand in stark contrast to the paltry few deaths caused by this small outbreak of "Swine" flu. 10 years of COMMON flu deaths = 5,000,000 or more!!

So, how come with such DEADLY outbreaks EVERY YEAR from annual COMMON flu epidemics, there is NO mass media hysteria & commotion? Hmmm? Let me guess. 

This one is "less common" and therefore some newsworthy mileage may be gained in some sectors by making a big deal about it. Drug companies will soar, media profits will soar, political stocks will soar.

The common cold & flu is just too, well, COMMON to do anything about the mass deaths resulting from it.


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2009)

The mainstream news media are just in a constant race to the bottom......


----------



## Green08 (28 April 2009)

Just a word of caution on Tamiflu.

I have anaphylactic shock to egg or any egg by product.

After watching a programme on Tamiflu @ 3 years ago I asked my Specialist and Local GP if I could ever receive Tamiflu vaccaine as it is incubated in egg white.  They strongly agreed that I SHOULD NOT EVER have the vaccine as it would more than likely send me into anaphylactic shock.  

Even if they gave me the vaccine in ER with life support on hand, they could not guarantee I would live if a full blown attack happened. 

If you have ever seen anaphylactic shock first hand full on you will understand.

Now - I am the exception.  I have never met any one as allergic as me which is why I live in a bubble

But if you have misgivings with a child or friend who has severe reactions to egg or egg by product just ask them for the Doctor's advice before they inject.


----------



## Calliope (28 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Ummm. Hate to dump on the party, but this is direct from the horses ar.. err... mouth - the World Health Organization website -
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I well remember the Asian flu epidemic in 1957, because I caught it. It was very debilitating. Two million people worldwide died in the outbreak. There were no special precautions then or any of the present hysteria that I can remember. There was no treatment except go to bed until it worked itself out.


----------



## MichaelD (28 April 2009)

Julia said:


> The Queensland Health Minister was yesterday boasting that all is good in this fine State because we have a whole 20,000 courses stockpiled.   That's probably fine for what may well turn out to be an overblown fear mongering hype, but if it does become a pandemic then 20,000 doses throughout the whole of Qld aren't going to be a hell of a lot of help!




The stockpiled doses aren't for you, they are for those working in the health professions.

The system kinda falls apart if all the health professionals fall ill or die.


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 April 2009)

Calliope said:


> I well remember the Asian flu epidemic in 1957, because I caught it. It was very debilitating. *Two million people worldwide died in the outbreak. There were no special precautions then or any of the present hysteria that I can remember.* There was no treatment except go to bed until it worked itself out.




Precisely my point.

Has there been an exponential rise in world wide deaths from swine flu that indicates a "potential" pandemic condition? NOPE. Only those of Mexican origin in a specific area. This virus is NOT escalating in potency world wide. It even appears to be plateauing in no. of confirmed Mexican deaths, not exponentially increasing.

Meanwhile, how many have died this last week worldwide from the ravages of "normal" or "common" flu? Thousands? 10's of thousands??

Makes you wonder...


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 April 2009)

MichaelD said:


> *The stockpiled doses aren't for you, they are for those working in the health professions.*
> 
> The system kinda falls apart if all the health professionals fall ill or die.




Could you imagine a planet where only pollies, ceo's & health professionals survived?

Bit short on the gene pool there....


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 April 2009)

> Theories being raised including that maybe the patients who died in Mexico were treated too late or with insufficient antiviral drugs, or that, *possibly, the H1N1 viral strain had mutated into a less virulent form as it moved out of Mexico, according to John Oxford, a top virologist at the Royal London Hospital*.



http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25402982-5005961,00.html


----------



## Calanen (29 April 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Precisely my point.
> 
> Has there been an exponential rise in world wide deaths from swine flu that indicates a "potential" pandemic condition? NOPE. Only those of Mexican origin in a specific area. This virus is NOT escalating in potency world wide. It even appears to be plateauing in no. of confirmed Mexican deaths, not exponentially increasing.
> 
> ...




The mortality rate of swine flu is 10%. 300,000 infections in Sydney say, 30,000 deaths, and 300,000 infections is not a lot. That is why it is a big deal.


----------



## moXJO (29 April 2009)

Calanen said:


> The mortality rate of swine flu is 10%. 300,000 infections in Sydney say, 30,000 deaths, and 300,000 infections is not a lot. That is why it is a big deal.




10% thats not right its more like .5%


----------



## moXJO (29 April 2009)

I hear one of the possible reasons there are more deaths in Mexico is because of the elevation.



> The impact of altitude on mortality from tuberculosis and pneumonia.PÃ©rez-Padilla R, Franco-Marina F.
> Department of FisiologÃ­a Pulmonar, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Mexico DF, Mexico. perezpad@servidor.unam.mx
> 
> OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between altitude and mortality from tuberculosis (TB) and pneumonia-influenza in Mexico. DESIGN: We analysed specific causes of death in Mexico according to death certificates for the period 1993-1997, totalling over 2,700,000 deaths and including nearly 23,000 attributed to TB and 115,000 to pneumonia and influenza. Thirty population subgroups were formed based on altitude of residence (six categories) and level of poverty (five categories). The effect of altitude on mortality was estimated through Poisson regression models, with adjustment for age, gender and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Adjusted death rates for TB decreased with altitude and increased for pneumonia-influenza. Compared to people living below 500 m above sea level, those living between 2000 and 2499 m had a 58% mortality rate for TB and a three-fold increase in mortality due to pneumonia-influenza, despite adjustment for poverty, age and gender. CONCLUSION: The mortality rate for TB based on death certificates decreases with altitude of residence, whereas the opposite is observed for pneumonia and influenza.




http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15581198


----------



## Sean K (29 April 2009)

A factor could also be that people were slow in getting treatment because they thought they had a common cold/flu. No drama right. Just wait it out. No need for a doctor. 

People are rushing to the hospital now with a sniffle.

Also remember, just a handful of the 150 or so suspected deaths from this strain have been confirmed as swine flu.


----------



## Julia (29 April 2009)

MichaelD said:


> The stockpiled doses aren't for you, they are for those working in the health professions.
> 
> The system kinda falls apart if all the health professionals fall ill or die.




Michael, I was sufficiently curious about this to contact Qld Health to ask.
Am assured that both Tamiflu and Relenza are made available on the basis of need.  Qld Health staff are not being and will not be prophylactically given either drug.  

When I asked if the drug wholesalers had unlimited supply to make available to pharmacists for filling GP scripts, he said no, and repeated the above statement about basis of need.

So I'd guess GP's have, e.g. been instructed not to hand out scripts unless patients genuinely have the symptoms.

The person I spoke to said in his entire career as front line nurse with Qld Health he had never received 'priority care'.


----------



## Green08 (29 April 2009)

Hi Julia,

I would be interested to know when these vaccines expire. Batch by batch. What do they do with the past dated -destroyed, but is it replaced at the same rate? 

Probably one we will never know.


----------



## investorpaul (29 April 2009)

I still think this is a massive over reaction and media beat up.

It is unfortunate that people have died but the flu kills thousands every year.

Furthermore you dont see the media talking about the millions of guns and bullets that are legally manufactured in countries like the US and then sold world wide that kill thousands of people (of yer I forgot the media doesnt care about "those" people).


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## Sean K (29 April 2009)

Julia said:


> The person I spoke to said in his entire career as front line nurse with Qld Health he had never received 'priority care'.



I know there is this type of policy in the Defence Force, for the reasons given. Not sure about the real world.


----------



## Green08 (29 April 2009)

Many ways to die - choose your posion

With the tensions in the world the finger is never far from the trigger, maybe just a walk on the safe side


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 April 2009)

Got this email today



Swine Flu - Frequently Asked Questions

As you may be aware there is a lot of media coverage relating to Swine Flu, whilst at the current time this strain of flu has not been detected in Australia the following FAQ’s provide some background information on the issue.  We will continue to monitor the situation and take the necessary measures in line with Australian Government recommendations.

What is swine flu? 

Swine Influenza (swine flu) is a highly contagious respiratory disease caused by one of several Swine Influenza A viruses that leads to outbreaks in pigs and occasionally infects humans. It is spread among pigs by aerosols, direct and indirect contact, and asymptomatic carrier pigs, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). It is not yet known how easily the virus can spread between people, although human-to-human transmission has occurred in some instances. 

What are the signs and symptoms of swine flu in humans? 

Symptoms of swine flu in humans are similar to that of the regular flu, including fever, cough, sore throat, aching body, headache, chills, fatigue, diarrhea and vomiting. Severe illness, including pneumonia and respiratory failure have been reported as being caused by swine flu in people. The virus may heighten the severity of underlying chronic medical conditions, according to the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

How is swine flu spread? 

Swine Influenza A is thought to spread in the same way as seasonal flu, from person to person through coughing or sneezing of people with influenza. It is possible to become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching the mouth or nose. Those infected with the virus can spread it to others one day before symptoms develop and a week or more after becoming sick. Young children may be contagious for longer periods. 

How can I avoid catching the virus? 

There is no vaccine currently available to protect against swine flu. The best ways to prevent catching the virus include avoiding contact with people who are ill, trying not to touch surfaces that may be contaminated with the virus, staying in good general health and being physically active, getting lots of sleep, drinking lots of fluids and eating nutritious food. It is also important to limit the spread of germs by washing your hands, covering your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze and throwing the used tissue away, as well as avoiding touching your eyes, nose or mouth. 

Is it safe to eat pork meat and pork products? 

Yes, swine flu has not been shown to be transmissible to people through eating properly handled and prepared pork, according to the World Health Organisation. 

Which Countries are most affected? 

Mexico is the epicentre of the outbreak, with over 150 confirmed and suspected deaths as of Tuesday 28 April and in excess of 500 people hospitalised. In 10 other countries, there have been 57 confirmed or suspected cases, none of them fatal, among people returning from Mexico. There are confirmed cases of swine flu in the United States, Canada, Europe, Spain, Israel and New Zealand. Several other countries, including Australia, are investigating suspected cases.

I think I’ve got swine flu, what should I do? 

Contact your health care provider if you are worried about your symptoms and if you live in areas where swine flu cases have been identified. As at 28 April 2009 there are no confirmed cases of swine flu in Australia however a number of people are being tested for swine flu. If you are sick you should stay home and limit contact with other people as much as possible to avoid spreading your illness. 

Anyone that has returned recently from Mexico or the South-western states of the USA with influenza-like symptoms should seek advice from their General Practitioner.

Adults who experience these warning signs should seek urgent medical attention;

·          Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath;                                                       

·          Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen;                                                   

·          Severe or persistent vomiting;                                                                      

·          Sudden dizziness;                                                                                    

·          Confusion. 

Children who experience these warning signs should seek urgent medical attention;   

·          Fast breathing or trouble breathing;                                                          

·          Bluish skin colour;                                                                                              

·          Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough;          

·          Not waking up or not interacting;                                                                    

·          Being so irritable that the child does not want to be held;                                 

·          Not drinking enough fluids;                                                                             

·          Fever with a rash


----------



## kincella (29 April 2009)

the investigators are looking at the piggeries....
or like anywhere else in the world....the backyard farmers....cheaper/cash product without a certificate ?
extract............

In Makati, meanwhile, Mayor Jejomar Binay has ordered the Makati City Veterinary Office (MCVO) to monitor daily and hourly all three slaughterhouses in the city to ensure local consumers of safe pork and in the process other meats. 

He said he wanted to “to avert pig flu panic in Makati.” 

Dr. Jacinto Jaime Inocencio III, MCVO veterinarian, the city’s meat inspectors are doing their best to protect residents from any threats of swine flu, ebola reston virus, avian flu, and foot-and-mouth disease.

He added that no fresh meat or pork or chicken product may be sold in Makati without a veterinary health certificate issued by the place of origin; and suggested that buyers demand they be shown the clearance certificate issued by the MCVO to meat sellers before making their purchases.

When in doubt, they could easily call the MCVO at telephone numbers 757-1413 to check 

http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/top-news/9476-hog-raisers-appeal-please-buy-eat-pork.html


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> Just a word of caution on Tamiflu.
> 
> I have anaphylactic shock to egg or any egg by product.
> 
> ...




You are confusing fluvax with tamiflu


I think that doctors have been very unethical doing prescriptions for relenza for people with no symptoms or risk.


----------



## MrBurns (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> You are confusing fluvax with tamiflu
> I think that doctors have been very unethical doing prescriptions for relenza for people with no symptoms or risk.




I dont agree, you have very little time to act once the symptoms kick in, to have it on hand is very important otherwise you have to go to the doc and try and source it from a pharmacy and they're already in short supply.


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I dont agree, you have very little time to act once the symptoms kick in, to have it on hand is very important otherwise you have to go to the doc and try and source it from a pharmacy and they're already in short supply.




But why are they in short supply ?

It is unethical for a doctor to prescribe relenza to a healthy individual, with no obvious risk of developing swine flu, and hence restrict the availability to people who have or are at high risk ( social justice )


----------



## MrBurns (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> But why are they in short supply ?
> 
> It is unethical for a doctor to prescribe relenza to a healthy individual, with no obvious risk of developing swine flu, and hence restrict the availability to people who have or are at high risk ( social justice )




No - it's a preventative, self defence in the case of a quick acting virus.

Many people carry this with them when they travel, in an emergency or if you're kids health is at stake you can take your social justice anally


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> No - it's a preventative, self defence in the case of a quick acting virus.
> 
> Many people carry this with them when they travel, in an emergency or if you're kids health is at stake you can take your social justice anally




Preventative and self defence is ok if the supply is reasonable.  At the moment it isn't

Your argument is not relevant to the social justice and ethical behaviour of doctors.  They should not be doing this at the moment.  If you were travelling to america, or mexico yes, staying in Australia, no.

I never said it is a bad thing to have protections vs this, but to take it away from people who need it is a social justice problem, which is what I said.


----------



## moXJO (29 April 2009)

Hmmm, what the hell is going on



> A MEMBER of the World Health Organisation has dismissed claims that more than 150 people have died from swine flu, saying it has officially recorded only seven deaths around the world.
> Reports have put the likely death toll from the virus at 152, with Mexican officials confirming 20 deaths.
> 
> The number of cases under observation in Mexico alone has reportedly reached 1614.
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25403429-29277,00.html


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## MrBurns (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> Preventative and self defence is ok if the supply is reasonable.  At the moment it isn't
> 
> Your argument is not relevant to the social justice and ethical behaviour of doctors.  They should not be doing this at the moment.  If you were travelling to america, or mexico yes, staying in Australia, no.
> 
> I never said it is a bad thing to have protections vs this, but to take it away from people who need it is a social justice problem, which is what I said.




We have 9M doeses of it on hand so if there's a shortage it's the Govt at work ......efficiently as uaual.


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## MrBurns (29 April 2009)

moXJO said:


> Hmmm, what the hell is going on
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25403429-29277,00.html





Buy Qantas before this gets out.......


----------



## Calliope (29 April 2009)

I was surprised to hear on the news today that out of the 159 reported deaths from swine flu in Mexico, only seven cases have been confirmed as  actually resulting from the A/HINI strain.


----------



## shag (29 April 2009)

tamiflu is hard to make apparently, and some dodgy natural acid/spice from  china is used, and its limited in supply to further complicate matters. 
plus no one wants it unless a pandemic is threatened, plus roche don't want anyone else cashing into their monopoly.
i don't think its anything to do with treatment that has helped non mexicans survive, it seems there is a second/third vector that kills presently. most who returned from mexico recovered well before the thing was exposed.
it started back in febuary according to the nz herald.


----------



## Agentm (29 April 2009)

my take on this media beat up is different to others.

right now i am not convinced this is anything like what its claimed to be.

seriously, for those concerned about this, take a look at this site before reading what people write on forums and what the media releases are saying

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

firstly, if the cases in mexico, *where ONLY 7 deaths have been confirmed as swine flu,* are the only deaths so far, then surely the need to panic is premature.  

sure its good to cautious, but is it really this bad, and does it warrant the massive hype its getting, it may be just like another flu!

every year in every county many thousands and 10's of thousands die from the normal flu viruses, or infact from the complications arising from the flu virus.

for instance in the usa alone:

Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second. Note: this automatic extrapolation calculation uses the deaths statistic: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)  

sorry to say this, but only 7 deaths in mexico from a flu is not a reason to have world panic.


if the hospitals in mexico were filled to overflowing with pneumonia/influenza cases, and they were making makeshift wards and the WHO was flying in and setting up emergency triages, i would be mildly concerned..

right now imho things dont add up..  people with confirmed cases of swine flu re just complaining its a bitch of a flu and get over it pretty much like any other strain. 

i am questioning if this is a little too much concern and not enough thought about whether its a real bad flu..

believe me, i am hoping i am right about this as i dont think the planet is ready for a pandemic right now..

anyone else not getting this story or not seeing it the way the panic struck are?


----------



## moXJO (29 April 2009)

My interest is in why it's being pushed so much. And with so much miss-information going around. They seem to be really out to cause a panic.


----------



## Calliope (29 April 2009)

All news reports refer to the "deadly swine flu virus." This seems a bit overdone to me, view of moXJO's link above, i.e seven confirmed deaths *worldwide* according to WHO.

We should never underrate the power of mass hysteria. Chicken Little would be proud of our media.


----------



## Julia (29 April 2009)

Calliope said:


> Experts say that the seasonal flu vaccines, freely administered here to the young and the aged( i.e the more vulnerable) are not believed to offer any protection against the swine flu.
> 
> And yet I heard on the radio this morning that in Mexico these same age groups who received these vaccines during their winter have had few fatalities. It is very unlikely that the young healthy adults who are succumbing would ever had the vaccine.



Anna Bligh has been on the radio again this morning recommending everyone gets a flu vaccination.  Given how recent the outbreak of swine flu is, it's hard to imagine much work has been done on measuring the effectiveness of the seasonal flu vaccine against swine flu.
Perhaps she's trying to be seen to be doing something.




Soft Dough said:


> But why are they in short supply ?
> 
> It is unethical for a doctor to prescribe relenza to a healthy individual, with no obvious risk of developing swine flu, and hence restrict the availability to people who have or are at high risk ( social justice )



I agree with you on this, and would bet most GP's are not in fact making it available to anyone who asks.


----------



## Prospector (29 April 2009)

Tamiflu's principle ingredient is star anise, which is not grown in large quantities.  I heard today that there have been no new cases in Mexico, and those cases in other countries have been mild ones.  And that the deaths in Mexico (I think 150) have not been confirmed as being attributable to swine virus, which is called Mexico Virus in Europe because the pork industry is jacking up about the name!

The issue with the bird and swine flu is that is causes the immune system to go into overdrive; this means that young healthy people are more likely to die from it than older ones.  Relenza can certainly be used preventively.

Unless there is more to this than we are being told, it seems like media hype to me.  The average flu season kills more people than this.


----------



## Green08 (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> You are confusing fluvax with tamiflu
> 
> I think that doctors have been very unethical doing prescriptions for relenza for people with no symptoms or risk.




Not confusing anything.  When it comes to my health I know what I can and can't have. They weren't writing prescriptions, just informing me of what could happen if I had it. Geez wish people would read.  Never had a flu shot never will.


----------



## Green08 (29 April 2009)

> Tamiflu's principle ingredient is star anise,



Thank you Prospector for the ingredient. I'll buy it from Herbies some wonderful receipe for anise


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> Not confusing anything.  When it comes to my health I know what I can and can't have. They weren't writting prescriptions, just informing me of what could happen if I had it. Geez wish people would read.  Never had a flu shot never will.



I don't get flu shots because of the side effects that could happen as was told by a doctor.


----------



## Struzball (29 April 2009)

I thought it was a bit sus when at first i wake up in the morning, turn the tv on and there was 50 or so deaths.  The next day, 150 deaths.  I thought this morning I would turn the tv on to hear 1000 deaths etc.  but nope.. 150 deaths.  

People suddenly stopped dying? Yeah right.. sounds like they never started dying from swine flu.


----------



## Agentm (29 April 2009)

Struzball said:


> I thought it was a bit sus when at first i wake up in the morning, turn the tv on and there was 50 or so deaths.  The next day, 150 deaths.  I thought this morning I would turn the tv on to hear 1000 deaths etc.  but nope.. 150 deaths.
> 
> People suddenly stopped dying? Yeah right.. sounds like they never started dying from swine flu.




maybe 150 did die from the flu, and imho thats probably normal, of them only 7 from the swine flu.. the rest from all the other strains..

so its just a flu.. and imho the hype on this needs to ebb off a little.

rationality is needed right now.. and to say there is a level 69 pandemic swine flu attack of the deadly tomatoes, is just going too far..

i wish i could have the swine flu right now, i could be the only survivor and get harry m miller to sell my story to 60 minutes for the news thirsty panic stuck Australian audience to fell at ease,   a survivor.. wow,, miracle..

storm in a tea cup and i think they will struggle to keep this hype up much longer..

sold a few newspapers and got the audience for their 6 oclock media slots,, but its way too much of a hyped up story right now in my view..

the other day a guy in the states said this was a manufactured flu..

he's right... its totally manufactured based on what i can see..


----------



## Prospector (29 April 2009)

This isnt exactly, just the flu.  It does have some of the characteristics of the H5N1 (bird flu) in that it influences the immune system so much.  That is why the young get ill and suffer the side effects - it is their immune system reaction that kills them.

Having said that, it appears that this strain is not particuarly virulent.  It does give our emergency services a chance to test out their systems though, so that is an excellent side-effect.


----------



## moXJO (29 April 2009)

Prospector said:


> This isnt exactly, just the flu.  It does have some of the characteristics of the H5N1 (bird flu) in that it influences the immune system so much.  That is why the young get ill and suffer the side effects - it is their immune system reaction that kills them.
> 
> Having said that, it appears that this strain is not particuarly virulent.  It does give our emergency services a chance to test out their systems though, so that is an excellent side-effect.




I thought it was the pneumonia that killed them?


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> Not confusing anything.  When it comes to my health I know what I can and can't have. They weren't writing prescriptions, just informing me of what could happen if I had it. Geez wish people would read.  Never had a flu shot never will.




Um yes you are.

fluvax is the influenza injection for immunisation.

Tamiflu is the anti-viral tablet for treatment of influenza.

Geez I wish you would research your own posts.


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Buy Qantas before this gets out.......




Or, alternatively, SELL Biota before it plunges any further... down 12% today - and that's before any official "easing" of the "swine flu crisis" gets out. Those that specced and jumped before it rolled over the top of Everest made heaps, but a lot of sheep-peeps are prolly gonna get burnt with that one in the next few days on its plummet down from the overshoot. 

What a beat-up....


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## Prospector (29 April 2009)

moXJO said:


> I thought it was the pneumonia that killed them?




This is for Bird Flu, but the same principles have been applied to Swine flu:
http://www.scidev.net/en/news/bird-flu-may-kill-by-making-immune-system-overreac.html
_
Bird flu might cause such severe disease and kill so many people because it makes the immune system 'overreact', say researchers.

They say that suppressing the immune response could be a way to treat infection by the H5N1 virus, which has killed 64 people in Asia ”” about half of all confirmed cases. ....
These chemical messengers alert the immune system to send white blood cells to attack the source of infection.

The production of so many messenger molecules could explain why H5N1-infected people's lungs are "full" of a kind of white blood cell called macrophages, says lead researcher Malik Peiris of the University of Hong Kong.

His team previously showed that white blood cells release a chemical that, if present in abundance, can damage lung tissue.
_


----------



## Prospector (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> But why are they in short supply ?
> 
> It is unethical for a doctor to prescribe relenza to a healthy individual, with no obvious risk of developing swine flu, and hence restrict the availability to people who have or are at high risk ( social justice )




The thing is, everyone has the same risk of developing swine flu, or the prevailing flu, if they associate with others, once the virus is known to be in the same geographical area.  Certainly if they travel in planes, or lifts, or trains.....

In this particular case, people with a weakened immune system are at no more risk than others who seem otherwise healthy. Given we cannot dose everyone, do we give all the medications to people in Nursing Homes, which might mean that young people at University, or schools, or work in large public areas for example, who are probably most at risk, don't receive treatment?



Green08 said:


> Thank you Prospector for the ingredient. I'll buy it from Herbies some wonderful receipe for anise




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_anise

_Star anise, star aniseed, badiane or Chinese star anise, is a spice that closely resembles anise in flavor, obtained from the star-shaped pericarp of Illicium verum, a small native evergreen tree of southwest China. The star shaped fruits are harvested just before ripening. It is widely used in Chinese cuisine, in Indian cuisine where it is a major component of garam masala, and in Malay–Indonesian cuisine. It is widely grown for commercial use in China, India, and most other countries in Asia. Star anise is an ingredient of the traditional five-spice powder of Chinese cooking. It is also a major ingredient in the making of phở, a Vietnamese noodle soup. It is used as a spice in preparation of Biryani in Andhra Pradesh, a state of southern India.

*Shikimic acid*, a primary feedstock used to create the anti-flu drug *Tamiflu*, is produced by most autotrophic organisms, but star anise is the industrial source. In 2005, there was a temporary shortage of star anise due to its use in making Tamiflu. Late in that year, a way was found of making shikimic acid artificially. A drug company named Roche now derives some of the raw material it needs from fermenting E. coli bacteria. There is no longer any shortage of star anise and it is readily available and is relatively cheap.

Star anise is grown in four provinces in China and harvested between March and May. Its also found in the south of New South Wales. The shikimic acid is extracted from the seeds in a ten-stage manufacturing process which takes a year. Reports say 90% of the harvest is already used by the Swiss pharmaceutical manufacturer Roche in making Tamiflu, but other reports say there is an abundance of the spice in the main regions - Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan._


----------



## GumbyLearner (29 April 2009)

Some experts have pinpointed Swine Flu
as coming from a small town named La Gloria.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=13211188&ch=4226723&src=news


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

Prospector said:


> The thing is, everyone has the same risk of developing swine flu, or the prevailing flu, if they associate with others, once the virus is known to be in the same geographical area.  Certainly if they travel in planes, or lifts, or trains.....
> 
> In this particular case, people with a weakened immune system are at no more risk than others who seem otherwise healthy. Given we cannot dose everyone, do we give all the medications to people in Nursing Homes, which might mean that young people at University, or schools, or work in large public areas for example, who are probably most at risk, don't receive treatment?




As you are saying I do not have the same risk as an air hostess in mexico, or a waitor in a restaurant near an international airport, or as a doctor in a hospital. Therefore, since there are finite supplies, doctors should only prescribe it to people who need it.

I agree with your last point, re nursing homes, no we do not give it to anyone, it is a treatment, not a preventative, so obviously we give ( and doctor's should only prescribe) it to people who will have any benefit.


----------



## Prospector (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> I agree with your last point, re nursing homes, no we do not give it to anyone, it is a treatment, not a preventative, so obviously we give ( and doctor's should only prescribe) it to people who will have any benefit.




Tamiflu and Relenza are proven as prophylactic -ie they can be given preventively.  Indeed, this is probably what is planned in the event of a pandemic; people in emergency care services (Doctors/Nurses/essential suppliers) may well be given the drugs as a precaution.


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

Prospector said:


> Tamiflu and Relenza are proven as prophylactic -ie they can be given preventively.  Indeed, this is probably what is planned in the event of a pandemic; people in emergency care services (Doctors/Nurses/essential suppliers) may well be given the drugs as a precaution.




They do not prevent at all, there is no modification of immune system.

They are drugs which treat infection ( ie they inhibit synthesis of viral rna ) therefore the virus needs to be in the body.

I can see that the earlier the better, in appropriate groups.

What can be achieved by having thousands of doses sitting in cupboards when there is no need is nothing compared to what can be achieved if it is prescribed and taken appropriately ( ie there is no reason to give it to people to take as there will no doubt be people who develop colds and use it )

There is no indication for a doctor to prescribe these unless the person is at risk or has the condition. 

Unfortunately if you do not understand medical ethics and the concept of social justice, then you will struggle to understand this.

I am not saying it is unwise to have some relenza at home, just that the doctor shouldn't be dishing it out without a reason.


----------



## Green08 (29 April 2009)

First confirmed death from swine flu in the States - Texas a child.  Just on CNBC


----------



## spooly74 (29 April 2009)

An article below from a very good blog which has recently been covering Swine flu. A priceless quote at the end of the paragraph which sums up the difficulty in trying to prepare for any outbreak.



> Swine flu: what did you expect?
> 
> ...
> Another thing that most people and probably most clinicians expect is that we know a lot about influenza. Perhaps because of the increased scientific interest since bird flu (an increased interest which will pay off handsomely in this outbreak, by the way) we do know quite a bit, but we also now know many of the things we thought we knew about flu, like the main ways it is transmitted from person to person, we don't really know. For example, how likely is it that you can get flu by touching a door knob or arm rest that someone with the flu just touched? Or that you can get the flu by sitting in the same emergency department waiting room (but not next to) other flu cases? These are open questions (see some of our many posts on this here, here, here, here). Why is flu seasonal? We don't know. We'll try to get to some more of these questions in the days ahead, since we have many new readers, but one big thing to know was emphasized by Acting CDC Director Richard Besser at the White House briefing yesterday: the influenza virus is highly unpredictable and our certain knowledge of it very scant. _If you've seen one flu pandemic, you've seen one flu pandemic._
> ...


----------



## Prospector (29 April 2009)

Soft Dough said:


> They do not prevent at all, there is no modification of immune system.
> 
> They are drugs which treat infection ( ie they inhibit synthesis of viral rna ) therefore the virus needs to be in the body.
> 
> I can see that the earlier the better, in appropriate groups.




OK, Have done some more checking and it can be given prophylactically, but not in the strict sense as in taking blood thinners for reducing blood clotting.  Tamiflu is recommended when people have been exposed to the flu - as opposed to simply 'just taking it in case'.  I dont think (but maybe they would) people would take it without having faced a risk through contact.  Which is why hospital workers would receive it as a preventive, because they most likely would have had contact.

http://www.rxlist.com/tamiflu-drug.htm

_Standard Dosage – Prophylaxis of Influenza
Adults and Adolescents
The recommended oral dose of TAMIFLU for prophylaxis of influenza in adults and adolescents 13 years and older following close contact with an infected individual is 75 mg once daily for at least 10 days. Therapy should begin within 2 days of exposure. The recommended dose for prophylaxis during a community outbreak of influenza is 75 mg once daily. Safety and efficacy have been demonstrated for up to 6 weeks. The duration of protection lasts for as long as dosing is continued._

Not sure what your point is here though!


Soft Dough said:


> Unfortunately if you do not understand medical ethics and the concept of social justice, then you will struggle to understand this.



The concept has nothing to do with social justice, just good medical practice.  I think even I can work that out!


----------



## brty (29 April 2009)

Green08,

I noticed that too, so much for being 'mild' outside Mexico.

This thing obviously takes its time with infections, the reports say that it really started a month ago. We really need to see what happens to those infected after they have had it for a week or so.

If this takes time to infect people, and then takes time to really make them sick, then the reported cases of all, sorry most being "mild", mean nothing.

The Governator has not called a state of emergency without a little bit of understanding of what is going on.

brty


----------



## Soft Dough (29 April 2009)

Prospector said:


> OK, Have done some more checking and it can be given prophylactically, but not in the strict sense as in taking blood thinners for reducing blood clotting.  Tamiflu is recommended when people have been exposed to the flu - as opposed to simply 'just taking it in case'.  I dont think (but maybe they would) people would take it without having faced a risk through contact.  Which is why hospital workers would receive it as a preventive, because they most likely would have had contact.
> 
> http://www.rxlist.com/tamiflu-drug.htm
> 
> ...




It has to do with both social justice and good practice.

And wrt tamiflu, it is not prophylactic, but the sooner you take the tamiflu the better response you will have in fighting the infection.   If it is prescribed for use for someone exposed to influenza, it is a good choice, like rifampicin if you are exposed to meningitis, but a good doctor will not give people rifampicin capsules "just in case" they come into contact with somebody who has meningitis.


----------



## Struzball (30 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> First confirmed death from swine flu in the States - Texas a child.  Just on CNBC






> The toddler was a Mexican who crossed the border for treatment, officials said.




A mexican.. from mexico..  

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25407487-5018988,00.html


----------



## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Denmark is planning purchase or Relenza. The countries leaders are concerned about resistance to Tamiflu.

http://in.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idINLT89242720090429


----------



## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Also, there was a post on another forum that India planning to stockpile Relenza - I am not sure the source.


----------



## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Finland orders 90,000 Relenza. Seemingly, they are fearful of Tamiflu reistance as they are ordering more Relenza than Tamiflu .

http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/2009/04/finland_in_line_to_get_swine_flu_vaccine_713415.html

"Government Decides to Acquire More Antiviral Drugs 

Already on Tuesday the government decided to acquire more antiviral drugs and protective clothing for medical personnel. 

More than 880,000 doses of the antiviral Relenza are to be stockpiled, and 90,000 more doses of Tamiflu, in addition to the more than 90,000 that have already been stockpiled."


----------



## metric (30 April 2009)

wonder how long before the GW nuts start claiming GW caused the swine flu?


.


----------



## Prospector (30 April 2009)

metric said:


> wonder how long before the GW nuts start claiming GW caused the swine flu?




I'd give it another day, maybe less!


----------



## Calliope (30 April 2009)

Give a pig a bad name. In Egypt they are going to cull all their pigs. Talk about hysteria. Luckily it wasn't called Mexican flu


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 April 2009)

Al Queda?


----------



## Agentm (30 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> First confirmed death from swine flu in the States - Texas a child.  Just on CNBC




in poorer areas of mexico, having medical care at your door is not a thing that all have.  its possible the 7 deaths there were on people who perhaps got to medical care too late for the facility to be able to help. one mexican child, not infected in the usa but visiting usa has died, this has caused the WHO to go to level 6.  the classification for the WHO to  go to level 6 requires a death on 2 continents.  mexico is obviously not on the american continent anymore.. i will check my maps again. until now i always had it next to texas.

with normal flu still outperforming the swine virus by a distance of miles, i am still curious as to how the WHO is making these decisions. 

again i hope i am right and i really dont think a pandemic is the right classification as yet.. but the pandemic label will stick now with the  manner in which this flu outbreak is being reported, with comparisons to other outbreaks and "global pandemics" being the norm.

CSL got some virus sample just the other day from NZ, they will culture it and start their processes, as soon as the WHO gives them some of their samples to ensure its the right one, they can green light a program for their flu shots, i think the PR lady said 10 weeks later they will have enough.  They can easily have supply for every australian to be given a flu shot in about 6 month.. 180 days..

given that csl do this twice a year, modify their flu shots to match up with the strains running through the community, i think this flu virus, which is pretty nasty and a new strain, is causing more deaths solely because its a new strain, and in no time the csl manufacturer and others globally will have the flu shot up and running and the swine flu will be under wraps.

perhaps my view is simplistic, but imho there is need for caution, but the death rate imho is not increasing at pandemic levels.. and i still find it amazing that mexico is now classified as a new continent..

for me its not much more than a new flu strain.. and imho there are plenty more than 1500 flu cases world wide and the death rate ratio may be slightly higher due to its origin in a relatively poor country with lesser medical facilities than in other regions.. 

in america the 1918 spanish flu had a high mortalty rate  

"The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1% "

but in india it was higher.. 50 per 1000 people infected

its possible imho that more than just 1000 have been infected with the A H1N1 virus,   so statistically i wonder if the flu is as lethal as the WHO is perhaps suggesting?

one thing is for sure, its getting a hell of a lot of attention and  this strain doesnt stand a great chance of becoming a pandemic unless i am missing something here?


----------



## bowman (30 April 2009)

World Health Organization has just upped the swine flu pandemic alert to 5 out of 6.

I think this came out after the US markets closed.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25407576-601,00.html


----------



## lthigham (30 April 2009)

Also, Finland and Denmark are ordering Relenza. UK, US, Korea planning to order from the news reports.


----------



## Bushman (30 April 2009)

Isn't the power of the media amazing? 

The pandemic stories do get people excited. How many have we had now - Ebola, SARS, bird flu, mad cow disease? It just shows how deeply entrenched the fear of a 'pandemic' is in our collective psyche. That or Michael Crichton has a wider readership than he deserves. 

Dunno; all I do know is that I am very lucky to have survived that little menagerie of doom to date. Maybe the swine is the one that will finally mean I am carted off to a mass grave a la Mozart?


----------



## Prospector (30 April 2009)

Calliope said:


> Give a pig a bad name. In Egypt they are going to cull all their pigs. Talk about hysteria. Luckily it wasn't called Mexican flu




It is in Europe because the Pork Industry is worth billions!


----------



## Calliope (30 April 2009)

Struzball said:


> A mexican.. from mexico..
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25407487-5018988,00.html




No doubt this was the trigger for WHO to raise the alert level to 5. i.e. deaths in *two* countries


----------



## investorpaul (30 April 2009)

This is unbelievable, how many people in total have been confirmed to be infected possibly 1000??? probably not even that.

We have a population of over 6bn and because 1000 people or less contract a flu the media is acting like it is the end of the world.

At this stage there is nothing to worry about. Caught early the medication works, all countries are now aware of the potential and screening people as they arrive.

Why Egypt is culling pigs I have no idea, I feel for the pig farmers who will face financial ruin. 

Obviously it is very sad that people have died but I dont know how it can be classed as pandemic yet


----------



## Julia (30 April 2009)

investorpaul said:


> This is unbelievable, how many people in total have been confirmed to be infected possibly 1000??? probably not even that.
> 
> We have a population of over 6bn and because 1000 people or less contract a flu the media is acting like it is the end of the world.
> 
> ...



Agree, Paul.  I'm also mystified by the pig cull.  The authorities have been repeatedly saying it's entirely safe to continue eating pork.  The pork farmers must be frustrated and angry.


----------



## MrBurns (30 April 2009)

This is a clear case of media induced pandemic.

If between 250,000 and 500,000 people die of flu each year anyway this is not serious yet.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 May 2009)

MrBurns said:


> *This is a clear case of media induced pandemic.*
> 
> If between 250,000 and 500,000 people die of flu each year anyway this is not serious yet.




Great stuff for media companies eh!? Think of the extra revenue, man!

It's nice to know someone profits from this beat-up.


----------



## Agentm (1 May 2009)

i cooked a pork meal last night.. tasted great.

this morning i woke up with a slight cold. 

anyone got some tamiflu ?


----------



## metric (1 May 2009)

Crunching Some Swine Flu Numbers




> By Leva Cygnet Published 04/29/2009 Editorials Rating:  Unrated
> 
> 
> 
> ...





http://firefox.org/news/articles/2756/1/Crunching-Some-Swine-Flu-Numbers/Page1.html


----------



## metric (1 May 2009)

nearly every country on earth has the swine flu. check this map..http://healthmap.org/swineflu


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Great stuff for media companies eh!? Think of the extra revenue, man!
> 
> It's nice to know someone profits from this beat-up.




Everyone can now? Tracker of global infections as disclosed by the WHO.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (1 May 2009)

Police finally catch the culprit??


----------



## Glen48 (1 May 2009)

Chanel 7 were reporting on their banner this morning about swine Flue any one ever seen one I was sure the pigs flue was curly???


----------



## Calliope (2 May 2009)

And the pigs *flue* overhead.


----------



## Calliope (2 May 2009)

*ABC Medical Editor Calms Down Media's Flu Coverage*
By Julia A. Seymour | May 1, 2009 - 16:08



> ;
> After days of media alarm regarding the H1N1 virus, or "swine flu," ABC "World News with Charles Gibson" provided a calmer analysis on April 30.
> 
> Medical editor Dr. Timothy Johnson told anchor Charles Gibson the "good news" about this flu virus and admitted that "sometimes we as the media" "do overreact."
> ...


----------



## awg (2 May 2009)

Hi all, 

havnt read thru the thread but FWIW.

My wife was at a major hospital on Thursday for a big new opening in the Immunology area.

She works with and knows various Immunoligists, and was talking with a  very senior Professor from a major OS Uni.

She was saying that Swine Flu outbreaks were an issue as recently as the 1960s, and that is why older people may have immunity.

I dont think they were overly concerned


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Police finally catch the culprit??




The dirty swine!! :angry:

Stone him!!


----------



## Agentm (4 May 2009)

listening to the aussie journo who has the swine flu in the UK, she tells of a cough, runny nose and that it was nothing really, hardly noticeable, but she has been confirmed as swine flu case.

i think this one can be buried now, as yet another case of hysteria..

now that the WHO conditioning and misrepresenting  the planet with these false flu pandemics, i hope that the consequence of fooling the world and playing in this emotive manner with peoples genuine feelings of fear is understood.

imho the WHO faces becoming the laughing stock of the planet, and credibility will be lost,  and in light of that its a shame to know that what was once highly regarded world health authority, has now become something that many will not want to believe again,

crying wolf with world health imho will prove disastrous in the future 

this sham deserves a proper response, across the board immediate reform, terminations of the upper management and a complete restructure, and imho needs to be done publicly  and immediately


----------



## MrBurns (4 May 2009)

Agentm said:


> listening to the aussie journo who has the swine flu in the UK, she tells of a cough, runny nose and that it was nothing really, hardly noticeable, but she has been confirmed as swine flu case.
> 
> i think this one can be buried now, as yet another case of hysteria..
> 
> ...





I too am really suprised that the WHO could have got it so wrong.

The most boring story on earth was aired on 60 Minutes last night, big panic over swine flu and end of the world stuff, they really looked stupid, by the time it went to air I think there were only 12 confirmed deaths, more deaths on the roads in that time.


----------



## Prospector (4 May 2009)

Either they got it wrong, and or there is something they were not telling us in the first place.


----------



## tech/a (4 May 2009)

> i think this one can be buried now, as yet another case of hysteria..




300,000 pigs in Egypt would have liked it to be sorted out at least a few days earlier.
And they didn't have a single case of swine Flu.

Imagine if a person to person bug appeared.
Genocide!
Atleast no one would get it!


----------



## investorpaul (4 May 2009)

Nothing to see here people.

As we suspected it doesnt appear to be that bad at all. On ABC radio this morning a health expert in the US said that 200,000 people are hospitalised and 32,000 people die every year from the common flu in the USA.

So unless this flu reaches at least a quarter of those figures, it is a massive over reaction.


----------



## kincella (4 May 2009)

both the WHO and IMF have shown just how shallow they are....the IMF produced a different prediction 5 times in the past 6 months...how many more times are they likely to change their minds ?? 

and for the first time ever....the olds have a benefit....can anyone imagine benefiting from being old......apparently this old virus attacked them when they were young...so they have immunity from it now....

where was the concern and scaremongering when it was really needed...you know with the heat wave that hit us in Feb....and hundreds of old people died....those who thought their parents were safe...sitting there in the air conditioned comfort of their homes....well no...the electricity broke down...and they died by the hundreds.....or dont we care about old people ?

ps I do not get the flue every year....however I do get the influenza virus every 5 or 10 years (it used to be 10 years as I get older its 5 years) that knocks me out for about 4 months...apart from the normal flu symptons...feel like I have been run over by a truck....find it very difficult to get out of bed and go to work....my productive work hours and income earning capacity is almost zero, the coughing spasms make the chest and stomach painful.....


----------



## kincella (4 May 2009)

just thinking out loud....how much money do the big pharma companies donate to WHO each year ?? its the big pharma's who stand to profit from all this scaremongering....are the donations transparent...or in a brown paper bag


----------



## investorpaul (4 May 2009)

kincella said:


> just thinking out loud....how much money do the big pharma companies donate to WHO each year ?? its the big pharma's who stand to profit from all this scaremongering....are the donations transparent...or in a brown paper bag




That is the one thing I hate about "capitalism" we say we operate in a largely free market yet it is abundantly clear that large corporations manipulate the market to gain an advantage.

Whether it is Pharma companies providing incentives to doctors or them paying off the WHO it has just gotten out of hand in my opinion.


----------



## Calliope (4 May 2009)

kincella said:


> ps I do not get the flue every year....however I do get the influenza virus every 5 or 10 years (it used to be 10 years as I get older its 5 years) that knocks me out for about 4 months...apart from the normal flu symptons...feel like I have been run over by a truck....find it very difficult to get out of bed and go to work....my productive work hours and income earning capacity is almost zero, the coughing spasms make the chest and stomach painful.....




Get your flu jab every autumn. It's free for oldies.


----------



## Glen48 (4 May 2009)

I rang the Swine Flu board  and all I got was crackling


----------



## Julia (4 May 2009)

Well, it might all seem like an over-reaction, but personally I'd prefer over activity by government than neglect in a situation which had the potential to be a problem.

No one has been harmed because seemingly unnecessary precautions have been taken but we'd be squealing loudly if the virus had been allowed free reign in Australia.


----------



## redsmartie (4 May 2009)

Now if someone would invent a flu-vacine in a pill and hand it to me I would take it, the needle is for desperate people that large corporations use to mutate the virus for next years cure, if you can call it a cure  .


----------



## kincella (4 May 2009)

overuse of antibiotics...means there is no cure for the really big bugs that live in our hospital system and now out there in main street
I believe the annual flu needle is doing the same thing


----------



## Prospector (4 May 2009)

Calliope said:


> Get your flu jab every autumn. It's free for oldies.



He he, I have to pay for it! 

Trouble is, one day we will get a serious pandemic and we will all blow it off as Chicken little.


----------



## badger41 (4 May 2009)

Actually it's a typo, started as "Mexico's Wine Flue". Avpid Mexican wine at all costs!


----------



## maffu (4 May 2009)

Julia said:


> No one has been harmed because seemingly unnecessary precautions have been taken but we'd be squealing loudly if the virus had been allowed free reign in Australia.





Apparently last time the Swine Flu hit the USA in the 1960's there was compulsory vaccinations using a new and largely untested vaccine. More people died from the compulsory vaccination in the USA then died of the Swine Flu.


----------



## Calliope (4 May 2009)

maffu said:


> Apparently last time the Swine Flu hit the USA in the 1960's there was compulsory vaccinations using a new and largely untested vaccine. More people died from the compulsory vaccination in the USA then died of the Swine Flu.




Actually it was in 1976. The vaccinations weren't compulsory. A rare (about one in a million) side effect of flu immunisation killed 25 people. One person died of the H1N1 virus. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak


----------



## Julia (4 May 2009)

maffu said:


> Apparently last time the Swine Flu hit the USA in the 1960's there was compulsory vaccinations using a new and largely untested vaccine. More people died from the compulsory vaccination in the USA then died of the Swine Flu.






Calliope said:


> Actually it was in 1976. The vaccinations weren't compulsory. A rare (about one in a million) side effect of flu immunisation killed 25 people. One person died of the H1N1 virus.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak



Thank you for the correction, Calliope.   

Maffu, I don't think any reasonable person would have believed your statement that a "new and largely untested vaccine" was administered compulsorily.


----------



## Julia (5 May 2009)

So far there has not been a single case of swine flu in Australia.

But stocks of Tamifu are now so low that the wholesalers have to ration supplies to pharmacy.

What does this say about
(a) the hysterical reaction of people who "think they might just need it" but who will probably waste it
and
(b) the doctors who were prescribing it to people who did not have the virus?


----------



## MrBurns (5 May 2009)

Julia said:


> So far there has not been a single case of swine flu in Australia.
> 
> But stocks of Tamifu are now so low that the wholesalers have to ration supplies to pharmacy.
> 
> ...




It's got a use by date of a number of years, a good idea to have it on hand just in case, for travel or for the next time this happens, which it will.

There's no law against prescribing this , if you're travellng overseas you wouldnt be without it.

Get some when this calms down before the rush next time.


----------



## Julia (5 May 2009)

I very much doubt that everyone who has acquired Tamiflu is travelling overseas.

My point was that if people who don't need it were to have used up the available supply, it's pretty tough on anyone who may actually contract the virus and be unable to get the medication.

Much of what is now sitting on bathroom shelves will eventually be thrown out unused.  

But maybe hoarders like the notion of making Roche Pharmaceuticals even richer than they are already.


----------



## metric (6 May 2009)

Julia said:


> I very much doubt that everyone who has acquired Tamiflu is travelling overseas.
> 
> My point was that if people who don't need it were to have used up the available supply, it's pretty tough on anyone who may actually contract the virus and be unable to get the medication.
> 
> ...




be prepared.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 May 2009)

Dear Dr Paranoid,

After cleaning my fish pond yesterday I sneezed and got a runny nose. Also, the skin on my hands has gone a bit scaly. Could I have caught Fish Flu?

Signed,

Extremely Concerned


----------



## metric (6 May 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Dear Dr Paranoid,
> 
> After cleaning my fish pond yesterday I sneezed and got a runny nose. Also, the skin on my hands has gone a bit scaly. Could I have caught Fish Flu?
> 
> ...




dear concerned citizen...

it is doubtful you would have caught fish flu. however, you have dangerously contributed to global warming, by using tissues to wipe your nose, power to run your fish pond, and supporting agriculture by using soap (fat).

please include in your next tax return the recipt for payment of the carbon credits you have incurred...

yours etc....rudds bald headed fool.


----------



## Prospector (6 May 2009)

I dread the media panic that will come with this winter's normal flu season. Everyone coming down with seasonal flu will become a statistic for being tested for Swine Flu.  We will have thousands of 'suspected cases' every day!  Now that will bring the headlines.....


----------



## MrBurns (6 May 2009)

Julia said:


> I very much doubt that everyone who has acquired Tamiflu is travelling overseas.
> 
> My point was that if people who don't need it were to have used up the available supply, it's pretty tough on anyone who may actually contract the virus and be unable to get the medication.
> 
> ...




Australia has 9M doses of this stuff, we arent going to run out.
Individual pharmacies may have to top up supply but there's plenty there and it's best to have it on hand, if there is an emergency you have it, and dont have to wait in line.


----------



## moXJO (6 May 2009)

From beginning to now this whole swine flu looked a bit suss. I would love to know the reasoning behind it all. Or is it just a case of the media becoming the maker of black swan events?


----------



## kincella (6 May 2009)

I am a flu sceptic...its not harming the olds...its the young ones this time...
the olds will die from whatever bug they get when they finally enter the hospital...for a seemingly mild case of whatever....
must admit I am a bit surprised about some of you.....when it comes to talk of the virus...I assumed you would be a bit tougher than you are....
I would be far more concerned about having to go to hospital...and the bugs they have waiting in there for you


----------



## Agentm (6 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> From beginning to now this whole swine flu looked a bit suss. I would love to know the reasoning behind it all. Or is it just a case of the media becoming the maker of black swan events?




its simple

WHO lowers the thresholds of all sections of the program, it looks at all strains immediately, and reacts with lightning speed to any new strains.. in an effort to be supremely reactive to the bird flu, which has been a very concerning virus due to its ability to kill most of the humans it has infected, not just respiratory, but also it can cause amazing trauma to the brain and other organs without even showing any respiratory symptoms. the fear is that should the bird flu mutaute, its unlikely the planet will have many surviving the strain, its a genuine threat and a real killer (should it mutate to airborne status).

Along comes a new strain not known in the current program, it kills a few people as does all flu strains, because its a new virus, and because they lowered the warning threshold and increased the security warnings to try to prevent world wide pandemic,  you get a result where a sniffle in mexico with a new strain caused all programs to go into full swing..

imho the program needs revision.. its probably a learning curve thing,, but we cant afford false runs on mild flu outbreaks with new strains,, perhaps it cant be achieved? but imho the obvious overreaction needs serious addressing..


----------



## Prospector (6 May 2009)

They also need to re-examine the gradings of Pandemic.  The current swine issue is rated 5, perhaps it will go up to 6, the highest level possible.  How does that work?  They currently base it on more than two continents are  affected - surely it would be better to base it on fatality/seriousness issues?  It just leaves them with nowhere else to go.


----------



## Calliope (6 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> From beginning to now this whole swine flu looked a bit suss. I would love to know the reasoning behind it all. Or is it just a case of the media becoming the maker of black swan events?




We love to panic. There is nothing like the smell of panic in the morning to get your adrenalin going . The media like to give it a kick along for obvious reasons

Our leaders use the panic to get us to turn to them for help when told things look black. It makes us more dependant on government and putty in their hands.

A similar situation applies with the climate change furore.


----------



## metric (6 May 2009)

May 4, 2009
Exclusive: SARS Sleuth Tracks Swine Flu, Attacks WHO
HONG KONG—

Yi Guan has plenty of experience at ground zero of an epidemic. In spring 2003, the virologist at Hong Kong University (HKU) isolated the SARS virus from masked palm civets in a wild animal market in China’s Guangdong Province. When the virus flared up again in late 2003, his team’s recommendation to slaughter all captive civets in the area may have been the key to stopping SARS in its tracks: The virus has not reemerged since.



> Although SARS is his claim to fame, Guan has spent most of his career studying influenza after earning a Ph.D. in swine flu under eminent flu expert Robert Webster of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. He is currently collaborating with Webster’s group.




Guan has been highly critical of what he sees as WHO’s slow response to the H1N1 emergency. He took a break from marathon hours in the lab and 3 a.m. conference calls with U.S. colleagues to speak with ScienceInsider. 


—Richard Stone



> Q: Where did WHO go wrong?
> 
> Y.G.: Friday night [24 April], I was in Bombay airport, waiting for a flight back to Hong Kong. They [WHO and CDC] already knew the situation in Mexico. Mexico said they had human-to-human transmission, and MMWR [Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report] reported three cases in America—these cases were community cases. Already it was an outbreak in the U.S., although it wasn’t severe, it didn’t kill people. I was still optimistic we could contain H1N1. Then nothing happened all weekend.






> Q: So WHO should have raised the alert level sooner?
> 
> Y.G.: Yes! WHO should have gone to level 4 or even level 5 on Friday.
> 
> We missed the golden period to contain the virus. Several hours could be another couple hundred cases. Every second was valuable at that time. We made a huge mistake. From then on it was countdown to the pandemic.






> Q: Why have there been dozens of deaths in Mexico but mostly mild cases in other countries?
> 
> Y.G.: We still do not have the clues why this virus seems to be milder outside Mexico.
> 
> At the initial stage of reassortment, most influenza viruses have low fitness. Their genomes are composed of eight gene segments. The reassortment event forms a new family with eight members. You can say they can have a family conflict. This kind of conflict makes reassorted viruses behavior very weird.






> Q: Is it surprising how quickly H1N1 adapted?
> 
> Y.G.: All viruses, after interspecies transmission, will evolve fast. But why this H1N1 could become successful at efficient human-to-human transmission is still unknown. We have a knowledge gap about how influenza A viruses build up their pandemicity in humans. As swine H1N1 has being circulating in pigs since 1918, it has accumulated [many] differences from human H1N1 virus. So, for human beings, it looks like a novel subtype, as most human individuals lack immunity to this swine-like H1N1. This is one of the most important conditions for pandemic emergence. Whether the novel virus will develop into a more virulent strain—just like the Spanish flu did in the fall of 1918 to kill more people—we still don't have any idea.






> Q: It depends on further mutations?
> 
> Y.G.: It depends on mutations and whether the virus further reassorts with other viruses—like H5N1. That could be a super nightmare for the whole world.






> Q: You’re talking about the Armageddon virus?
> 
> Y.G.: The chance is very, very low that these two viruses will mix together, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Now, H5N1 is in more than 60 countries. It’s a panzootic, present everywhere except North America.






> Q: If the nightmare comes true?
> 
> Y.G.: If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab. H5N1 kills half the people it infects. Even if you inject yourself with a vaccine, it may be too late. Maybe in just a couple hours it takes your life.






> Q: What have you learned from your work on H1N1 so far?
> 
> Y.G.: We almost figured out how H1N1 virus was generated—its evolutionary pathway. The virus has all the genetic markers that allow us to trace how and where it comes from. We have a huge tree [a family tree of influenza variants], a long history. My former supervisor here at HKU, Ken Shortridge, started flu surveillance in 1976. At each point where influenza virus changes, we made a record.






> Q: Any truth to the speculation [in Chinese media] that the virus originated in China?
> 
> Y.G.: Actually, in this case, we cannot blame China. What’s interesting, the virus reassorted four or five times






> Q: Is it surprising that you can have so much reassortment and still have a viable organism?
> 
> Y.G.: Yes, that’s right! Basically, we figured out where the virus originated, and we are writing a paper. But where and how this jumped into humans—that needs to be worked out in the U.S.






> Q: What are some other major knowledge gaps?
> 
> Y.G.: Every year we meet many reassorted viruses, we don’t know which can jump to humans. Which one could become a pandemic? Nobody knows. We lack the knowledge to distinguish which virus has pandemic potential. This is a big limitation.
> 
> Many of us influenza researchers, we blame ourselves; if we have this knowledge, then we can get rid of pandemics in human beings. Life becomes very meaningful if you do something like that. SARS has been averted for 6 years. But I’ve been working 20 years on flu. I still don’t know which variant will cause a pandemic. I feel frustrated by this. In my lifetime, I won’t be able to solve this. Hopefully, my students will.






> Q: Are you surprised there hasn’t been a SARS outbreak since 2003?
> 
> Y.G.: The ecosystem was disrupted. No more large amounts of wild animals in the market, just next to your door. It was like a big mixing vessel. Like a PCR [polymerase chain reaction] machine. Put the virus in and amplify it. That’s why my group has worked so hard to study the H5N1 ecosystem. We sample around 50,000 to 60,000 birds per year, about 200 per day. Like a factory. It’s very mechanical work, very dangerous work.






> Q: Somebody has to do it.
> 
> Y.G.: Yes! How else can you compare an outbreak with peaceful times? This information will be vital to understand H1N1.


----------



## metric (6 May 2009)

Quote:


> Q: You’re talking about the Armageddon virus?
> 
> Y.G.: The chance is very, very low that these two viruses will mix together, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Now, H5N1 is in more than 60 countries. It’s a panzootic, present everywhere except North America.
> 
> ...




http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/05/exclusive-meet.html


----------



## Prospector (6 May 2009)

Calliope said:


> A similar situation applies with the climate change furore.



Dont get me going on Climate Change!


----------



## Julia (6 May 2009)

Calliope said:


> Our leaders use the panic to get us to turn to them for help when told things look black. It makes us more dependant on government and putty in their hands.
> 
> A similar situation applies with the climate change furore.




Yep, it's the old 'instil fear' process.   They have also done it with the GFC:
talked the economy down whilst at the same time handing out play money for the masses with instructions to spend.

Just about every day either Rudd or Swan are all over the media telling us how bad everything is, and what a tough Budget it's going to be. " Every Australian will have to share in the pain", says Swannie.   Then if the dreaded Budget is not quite as bad as has been implied, then we will all feel oh so grateful to our fearless leaders for the amazing job they have done in guiding our economic future.

PS  A 'temporary ' deficit!!!  What a joke.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 May 2009)

Julia said:


> Yep, it's the old 'instil fear' process.   They have also done it with the GFC:
> talked the economy down whilst at the same time handing out play money for the masses with instructions to spend.
> 
> Just about every day either Rudd or Swan are all over the media telling us how bad everything is, and what a tough Budget it's going to be. " Every Australian will have to share in the pain", says Swannie.   Then if the dreaded Budget is not quite as bad as has been implied, then we will all feel oh so grateful to our fearless leaders for the amazing job they have done in guiding our economic future.
> ...




We are all "temporary"....


----------



## metric (7 May 2009)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/CDC-WHO-expected-declare-official/story.aspx?guid={62E174B9-B1C1-40C8-9BA0-980DF0B8E204}



> CDC: WHO expected to declare official pandemic




By Val Brickates Kennedy
Last update: 2:04 p.m. EDT May 6, 2009Comments: 15
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- 



> Officials for the Centers for Disease Control said Wednesday that they expect the World Health Organization to declare an official pandemic of the A/H1N1 virus because it has detected sustained human-to-human transmission in a region other than North America, where the virus was first identified. By declaring a pandemic, the WHO would raise its alert rating from the current level 5 to level 6. The CDC also said there are now 1,487 reported cases of the virus in the U.S. Of those, 642 have been confirmed with a special laboratory test. Two of the victims, both in Texas, have died. Cases of the virus have been confirmed in 41 states, with Illinois topping the list at 122.


----------



## gamefisherman (7 May 2009)

flu, smu, the media love anything to scaremonger us..............keep the blinkers on and stay focussed on the trading plan...........

no signifiicant effect imo re the market........just more noise to filter out


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 May 2009)

gamefisherman said:


> flu, smu, the media love anything to scaremonger us..............keep the blinkers on and stay focussed on the trading plan...........
> 
> no signifiicant effect imo re the market........just more noise to filter out




Markets UP overnight.

Nothing to see here.

Move along....


----------



## metric (7 May 2009)

gamefisherman said:


> flu, smu, the media love anything to scaremonger us..............keep the blinkers on and stay focussed on the trading plan...........
> 
> no signifiicant effect imo re the market........just more noise to filter out




actually you are half right....the scaremongering takes your eye off the ball and these sort of things go through..







> british troops pulled out of iraq after 6 year leaving the usa standing alone..
> 
> usa congress approved a $3.44 trillion budget resolution, including a $1.2 trillion budget deficit !
> 
> ...




so it DOES have a significant effect on the market. that is, if yuou believe the western media and the corporate west work together...?

and the quote comes from ....http://seeker401.wordpress.com/


----------



## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2009)

Not sure if it's already been mentioned, but the average yearly 'normal' flu outbreaks around the world kill something like 35,000 people every year? So not sure if the latest H1N1 concern is too much to worry about. Then again, you can just sense that for a few years now the 'people who know' have been secretly advising 'those that control' of the potential of a genuine global pandemic. I have a full cartridge type face mask just in case............?


----------



## metric (14 May 2009)

> Winnipeg researcher charged with smuggling biological material into U.S.






> ast Updated: Wednesday, May 13, 2009 | 11:11 AM ET Comments99Recommend85CBC News
> A researcher at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg is facing charges in the United States after allegedly trying to smuggle unidentified biological material across the Manitoba-North Dakota border.







> In his affidavit, the 42-year-old researcher said he was hired by the Public Health Agency of Canada to work as a PhD fellow at the Winnipeg facility. Yao told officers he was working on a vaccine for the Ebola virus and HIV






> "It's being analyzed by the lab," Jordheim said. "I couldn't tell you precisely what it was, but it was material used in his research for Ebola, and HIV and other viruses of that type, looking for vaccines, and these were materials he was using for that research."






> Although the vials did not contain active viruses, he said it's still a serious offence.



 and they know this, how? the lab report hasnt come back yet....?

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/05/13/border-biological-agents.html


----------



## Prospector (14 May 2009)

We know of a business where a client has delayed a workshop because the presenter was arriving back from overseas a couple of days before the event, and they want to delay the workshop for 2 weeks after the incubation period for swine flu! 

This group are not in the private sector, as you may be able to guess!  Seriously pathetic.


----------



## Timmy (20 May 2009)

_A nine-year-old Victorian boy has become the second person in Australia to be diagnosed with swine flu.
_

Thank goodness for that, it was beginning to look like a media beat up ... 

ps. _"The boy is recovering at home as he was not ill enough to be hospitalised,'' Mr Andrews said._


----------



## Happy (20 May 2009)

Timmy said:


> Thank goodness for that, it was beginning to look like a media beat up ...





What is worrying , after initial higher fatality rate, all of the sudden it almost became regular flu with cumbersome 7 to 10 days quarantine attached to it.


----------



## Knobby22 (20 May 2009)

Happy said:


> What is worrying , after initial higher fatality rate, all of the sudden it almost became regular flu with cumbersome 7 to 10 days quarantine attached to it.




I am a bit scared. The flu may not be that virulent but it is still dangerous.


----------



## Real1ty (20 May 2009)




----------



## Happy (21 May 2009)

Knobby22 said:


> I am a bit scared. The flu may not be that virulent but it is still dangerous.




I am scared too, but luckily death rate of infections dropped considerably and its statistics do not vary too much from our regular flu.

This might change, as they said we could expect second wave.

What I like about this strong reaction is acceptance that if you stay away from other people it is good for them as you are already infected.

Until recently it was expected to 'soldier on', sneezing and infecting everybody around.

Maybe, just maybe we accept new way of behaviour.


----------



## Real1ty (21 May 2009)

.


----------



## Knobby22 (21 May 2009)

Classic!!!


----------



## rocket67 (24 May 2009)

Want to keep up to date with developments?

This virus is rapidly spreading world wide.

Coming soon to your neighbourhood.

Be aware, and be prepared - but not panicked.

I check out this site everyday for new information -Very interesting and reputable.

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/recentActive.do

Consider adding it to your favourites.

Of particular note for Aussies - read through the news reports for 23 May

Rocket.


----------



## Julia (31 May 2009)

Swine flu is now in every State and Territory.

The Chief Medical Officer has suggested the government's actions are excessive.

Apparently it's a fairly mild disease of three or four days' duration, pretty much like the ordinary flu which affects hundreds of thousands every winter.

To be ordering so many people into quarantine seems a bit unrealistic, doesn't it?   Are people really going to obey this, unless maybe they want a week off work?

If the government continues to do this, even for those who have no symptoms, there's going to be an effect on productivity, not to mention the panic and anxiety proliferating throughout the community.

Wouldn't you expect the government to take the advice of its Chief Medical Officer?
Ah well, guess it takes the punters' minds off the deficit and creates in at least some minds the notion that the government is oh so caring and concerned.


----------



## Dowdy (31 May 2009)

the media is making too much of a deal about it. 

NO ONE HAS EVEN DIED HERE

I wonder how many people have died from the common cold this year alone in Australia? Maybe the media should report something about that


----------



## Prospector (31 May 2009)

37,000 people die from seasonal flu in the US every year.
Swine Flu:
In Mexico the death toll is 97; almost three quarters of the people who died had other complications, such as diabetes, heart disease or respiratory problems, health officials said Friday.

The virus that has sickened more than 13,000 people in 48 countries and been linked to more than (I would say ONLY) a 100 deaths worldwide has largely subsided in Mexico, where it was first identified in late April.


----------



## ROE (31 May 2009)

I dont know what people are complain about ...the government is trying to contain a virus that we have no vaccine and our defense system is yet to be able to cope.

It may or may not be deadly but nothing wrong being cautious for virus we yet fully understood.

the Spanish flu didn't wipe people out until second round when it mutate and becomes a deadlier virus.

What government doing right now is try to contain and stop the spread and increase chance of mutation...nothing wrong with that.

Its stupid compare to this and the normal flu as we understood and have vaccine and can contain the normal winter flu


----------



## saiter (31 May 2009)

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that the government is trying to engineer a sharemarket recovery through the XHJ...


----------



## Prospector (31 May 2009)

Because Roe, we are closing down the country for a virus that at best makes people unwell for maybe four days, and using our tamiflu supplies when all tamiflu is doing is shortening the ill effects by a day or so.  They are being used preventively, (eg handing them out to school students where 1 student only may have the virus), just in case.  If bird flu struck in the next few months, what do we do?  We will have used much of our supply on a virus than even health authorities recognise as being mild, and is not spreading as quickly as everyone thought.

And if this does mutate, same thing.  Saying that we are in the same position health wise as when the Spanish flu struck is just silly.  Penicillin was not even around then.  The World had just experienced a decimating war, people were ill fed, hygeine not understood - it was a different world.


----------



## Aussiejeff (31 May 2009)

Dowdy said:


> the media is making too much of a deal about it.
> 
> *NO ONE HAS EVEN DIED HERE
> 
> I wonder how many people have died from the common cold this year alone in Australia? Maybe the media should report something about that*




I'm with you 110%

AFAIK from Googling, AROUND 2,500-3,000 AUSTRALIANS die each year from the COMMON flu & associated pneumonias.

NOT ONE AUSTRALIAN HAS DIED FROM PIGS MIGHT FLY FLU.

Yep.

Smells like a porky to me.....


----------



## beamstas (31 May 2009)

Maybe people need to stop running their mouths and think

The flu isn't a problem right now

But the real risk is we have no immunities to it

So if it does get any worse it will just spread through everyone.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 May 2009)

my drivers license expired on friday 

i was pulled over on saturday morning by a RBT checkpoint on the highway 

i blew clear .i was asked for my license , the young officer was disrespectful when i gave my reason for being expired by one day 

i asked him if he would be automatically immune to the swine flue


he fined me 100 bucks , and made me leave car and walk home 500 metres away

moral of story 

only make swine flu jokes when appropriate


----------



## So_Cynical (31 May 2009)

Prospector said:


> is not spreading as quickly as everyone thought.




LOL id like to know what u would consider to be a rapid spread.


24 April 2009 -- The United States Government has reported *seven 
confirmed human cases* of Swine Influenza A/H1N1 in the USA 
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html


18 May 2009 --  40 countries have officially reported *8829 cases* 
of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 74 deaths.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_18/en/index.html


29 May 2009 -- 29 May 2009, 53 countries have officially reported 
*15,510 cases* of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 99 deaths.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_29/en/index.html

Yep moving at snails pace  from ground zero in Mexico to 53 country's and 15,510 cases 
in only 35 days....and there the official numbers, reality is there prob 3 or 4 times that out there.

Just goes to show that when a really bad flu gets out, we are all totally doomed...the power's 
that be wont shut the airports till there's passengers disembarking bleeding tears and looking 
like extras from a Resident Evil movie.


----------



## Julia (31 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Maybe people need to stop running their mouths and think
> 
> The flu isn't a problem right now
> 
> ...



So what?   The common cold 'spreads through everyone' every winter, as does the 'ordinary' flu.   

There is  different strain of the flu every year.  The vaccines are adjusted accordingly.

Fewer than 3 million vaccines are administered each year, so most of the population manage to survive unless they have some pre-existing conditions which are exacerbated by the flu virus.

I never have a vaccination and haven't had flu for about two decades.

If you think the government is behaving reasonably, then would you support everyone who potentially might come in contact with the ordinary flu virus also be placed into quarantine for a week?  And that is in addition to those quarantined for possible exposure to the pig flu.

If you were an employer, how are you going to feel if half your work force say 'oh sorry, can't work for a week.  My next door neighbour might have been in contact with someone who is being tested for swine flu"?

And, as Prospector has pointed out, what are we going to do if all the stockpiled anti viral agent is used up unnecessarily on this apparently very mild disease, and something really nasty comes along?


----------



## Luthien (31 May 2009)

Our eldest son's school has contacted us this evening via email and mobile phone text to say the school is closed as a precautionary measure as there is a student at each year level with H1 N1 influenza. They are working to identify students who have been in prolonged contact  (over several hours) with these students during the past week. Once identified, families will be contacted and those students will receive tamiflu and be asked to enter into voluntary quarantine. All students have been asked to limit activities outside their homes.

Current cases are exhibiting mild symptoms.

Examinations, VCE assessments, school schedule will be impacted.

We have 2 younger boys at different schools. Schools are the perfect influenza (whatever type) conductor. We knew the wave was coming. We'll do out bit and self quarantine the whole family as much as possible just in case. 

The horse has not only bolted- the herds have stampeded out the gates.


----------



## spooly74 (1 June 2009)

Julia said:


> So what?   The common cold 'spreads through everyone' every winter, as does the 'ordinary' flu.
> 
> There is  different strain of the flu every year.



Comparing swine flu to ordinary seasonal influenza is almost completely irrelevant.
It's as valid today, as it was in 1917. In 1918, 50 million people (mostly young) were dead. That started out as a mild flu, without a high mortality rate.
The worry is that present swine flu clearly has _pandemic_ properties. It spread very easily and very quickly across the globe.

While most people have some form of immunity against seasonal flu, 40,000 people (mostly elderly) still die each year in the US alone. 
Nobody has any native immunity against a pandemic, so if it did mutate into a killer, the result would be devastating.



> •24 April 2009 -- The United States Government has reported seven
> confirmed human cases of Swine Influenza A/H1N1 in the USA
> •29 May 2009 -- 29 May 2009, 53 countries have officially reported
> 15,510 cases



7 to 15,510 in the first 35 days
15,510 to 35,000,000 in the next 35 days? The numbers can quickly get out of hand.



> The vaccines are adjusted accordingly.



One day, a virus will adjust accordingly.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 June 2009)

spooly74 said:


> 7 to 15,510 in the first 35 days 15,510 to 35,000,000 in the next
> 35 days? The numbers can quickly get out of hand.




This was the point i was trying to make....sarcasm is hard to get across on a forum.

If the H1 N1 influenza was a stock, the trend followers would be all over it.


----------



## Timmy (1 June 2009)

Yep, this is really scary.  The horrific, debilitating health effects, the sheer number of deaths (sometimes in extreme pain), the way it effects children, its horrible spread and prevalence.  Calling it “pandemic” does not do it justice.  
BTW, which pandemic are we referring to again?

Estimations of deaths attributable to passive smoking

Children bear cost of passive smoking

Daily road toll update

almost 10% of the total burden of disease in Australia in 1996 was attributable to tobacco smoking

Illicit drug use is associated with around 1,000 deaths per year in Australia

In 1998, around 2,000 deaths among persons aged 0-64 years were attributable to the use of alcohol

I could go on.

Oh yeah, pig flu:
Runny nose pandemic - chuck a sickie (no source for this one, I made it up).

Get a grip.


----------



## Prospector (1 June 2009)

Except it didnt spread to epic proportions in Mexico; it is now officially waning, and only 5,000 cases were reported.  Mexico has more deaths in a day from drug running and extortion.  How do you explain that in a population of Mexico of over 100 million people, where poverty is endemic and health systems poor, only .005% of the population actually got it, and most recovered very quickly.

If there were 200 cases in Australia on Friday then by now there should be close to 1000. In SA, we have had three members of 1 family with it, although 1 not proven in the labs, and three people who came from the cruise ship. That is almost a week ago now. Two schools closed for a week now re-opened.  Pandemic?


----------



## Julia (1 June 2009)

spooly74 said:


> Comparing swine flu to ordinary seasonal influenza is almost completely irrelevant.
> It's as valid today, as it was in 1917. In 1918, 50 million people (mostly young) were dead. That started out as a mild flu, without a high mortality rate.



No, Spooly, it's not at all as valid today as it was in 1918.  The main cause of death then was the bacterial infection (usually in the form of pneumonia) which followed the initial virus.   There was no penicillin, so people died in large numbers.

And if you consider comparing swine flue to ordinary seasonal influenza is 'almost completely irrelevant', you are holding a different view from that of the country's Chief Medical Officer and most doctors.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 June 2009)

Timmy said:


> Yep, this is really scary.  The horrific, debilitating health effects, the sheer number of deaths (sometimes in extreme pain), the way it effects children, its horrible spread and prevalence.  Calling it “pandemic” does not do it justice.
> BTW, which pandemic are we referring to again?
> 
> Estimations of deaths attributable to passive smoking
> ...




 love your work


----------



## aldebaran3003 (1 June 2009)

Julia said:


> No, Spooly, it's not at all as valid today as it was in 1918.  The main cause of death then was the bacterial infection (usually in the form of pneumonia) which followed the initial virus.   There was no penicillin, so people died in large numbers.
> 
> And if you consider comparing swine flue to ordinary seasonal influenza is 'almost completely irrelevant', you are holding a different view from that of the country's Chief Medical Officer and most doctors.




Here here!

Death is principally from sequelae of pneumonia or sepsis as with almost every other influenza death in the country.  Few will get pneumonia, while even fewer will develop sepsis.  Both are treatable with the prognosis dependant on a multitude of factors including whether they develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, how quickly antibiotic therapy is commenced and the offending organism.  

Mexico pushed the red panic button too quickly, remembering the standard of living and health care.  Now WHO and governments everywhere must try to save face and avoid a please-explain from business and the global public knowing that the threat and virulence is nowhere near the level it was first thought to be.  WHO will have learned it's lesson in listening to academics from Mexico.  

For those that are interested, INFLUENZA, a virus, is "treated" with anti-viral drugs ie tamiflu (Roche).  _IF_ this flu was a virulent as the Spanish flu and people were dropping like flies from sepsis and pneumonia (which is bacterial and occasionally fungal), then they would be treated with antibiotics, so any manufacturers of augmentin, gentamicin, and third generation cephalosporins  would be working around the clock to increase production.

Spooly I hear there is a "killer pandemic vaccine" soon to be widely available on ebay 

I gotta say I'm more afraid of meningococcal disease than swine flu and if the Gold Coast's poster family for the disease is any example then I'll soldier on with Codral.


----------



## Calliope (1 June 2009)

The way the health authorities have stuffed the _Pacific Dawn_ around is laughable. The P&O should sue the government for their losses.


> SHOWING they hadn't lost their sense of humour, a small group of passengers on the cruise ship Pacific Dawn chanted in loud voices, "Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oink Oink Oink".




No evidence of any passenger to passenger or crew to passenger flu transmission was found.


----------



## Prospector (1 June 2009)

Calliope said:


> The way the health authorities have stuffed the _Pacific Dawn_ around is laughable. The P&O should sue the government for their losses.
> No evidence of any passenger to passenger or crew to passenger flu transmission was found.




I heard this today.  P&O have given people 25% off their next cruise, plus a 75% refund of this cruise.  Why should they have to pay for a monumental stuff up!  There are sensible precautions, and then there is panic.  The Government panicked, for a virus that isnt spreading rapidly and doesnt appear to have any more effects than influenza, actually, probably less.  If this virus was so contagious, then why didnt the crew spread it further.  Why havent the rest of the crew come down with it?


----------



## Prospector (1 June 2009)

Ok, so this bit I dont get.  Victoria has said swine flu is out of control so some time this week they are moving from contain to sustain.  Which means that people suspected of being exposed to the illness do not need to be quarantined unless they live with a confirmed person.  That makes no sense to me.


----------



## Timmy (1 June 2009)

Prospector said:


> Victoria has said swine flu is out of control




In Victoria you are more likely to die in a bushfire than from pig flu.  Right?


----------



## Anthony Hosemans (1 June 2009)

The swine flu is out of control in Victoria, however it appears to be much less deadly than when it first appeared in Mexico. When first noticed it hd a 3% fatality rate and if that had of continued we would be in real strife. However it would appear to have become "milder" with no deaths recorded in Australia to date. The "normal" flu kills about 2500 Australians each year. Why all the hype about this one! Regards Kooka


----------



## Happy (1 June 2009)

Anthony Hosemans said:


> .... Why all the hype about this one! Regards Kooka





I think these are mindless rules at work.

Because country reported epidemic (Mexico)
People contracted in several countries.
People died in 3 countries (pandemic)

Every phase must be called up and this is all OK, but as it looks now bit of too conservative.

The only logical argument is that this flu has no cure and has no vaccines.
Should it mutate to extremely deadly one, we have no other means of combat but isolate and wait only.
Probably this little test run will condition people to what can be done, so they do not argue and authorities get experience how to do it better when real matter hits the fan.


----------



## Prospector (1 June 2009)

Happy said:


> Probably this little test run will condition people to what can be done, so they do not argue and authorities get experience how to do it better when real matter hits the fan.




I would agree that it could be seen as a test run, so long as when the big one hits people dont ignore it.  And hope they havent handed out all the tamiflu!


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 June 2009)

Timmy said:


> In Victoria *you are more likely to die in a bushfire* than from pig flu.  Right?




Wrong!

You are more likely to die from *ANYTHING* in Victoria than from pig flu.

In fact, if you a lucky enough to catch "swine flu", you know for certain you WONT die from the normal flu instead and can therefore dance in the street, celebrating your good luck!!

Authorities should instead be proclaiming *"Thank god for the swine flu"* since it will prolly mean the annual horrific "normal flu" death toll is less this year than usual.


----------



## Timmy (2 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Wrong!
> You are more likely to die from *ANYTHING* in Victoria than from pig flu.




Thank-you for the correction Jeff, you're right!
LOL


----------



## Calliope (2 June 2009)

The Government clearly thinks that our hygiene standards (or manners) are not up to scratch when it has to advise us how to safely dispose of unwanted  mucous secretions i.e. use a tissue and then dispose of it.

I hope our Ashes team have been given this advice. No Australian cricketer has been known to carry a tissue or a hankie in his pocket on to the field since Mark Waugh carried that little red rag.


----------



## Timmy (4 June 2009)

This Runny Nose Pandemic B/S is getting funnier and more ridiculous by the day:

Victoria placed on swine flu blacklist

Victoria has been blacklisted as the country's swine-flu capital, with children who travel to Melbourne to be banned from school for seven days when they return home.

Is this why Victorians are often referred to as Mexicans (hi Sol) ?


----------



## Aussiejeff (4 June 2009)

Timmy said:


> This Runny Nose Pandemic B/S is getting funnier and more ridiculous by the day:
> 
> Victoria placed on swine flu blacklist
> 
> ...




Areeeba! Areeeba! Underlay!! :mexico:



Oh dear. I hope Mr Joe won't ban us Vickies as well for being a viral mob....

Too late for this thread though.

It went viral at least 6 pages back!

LOL

PS: What next? Federal Police to set up US/Mexico style armed border crossing checkpoints along the VIC state borders and refuse Vics entry to other states?


----------



## Happy (4 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> ...
> PS: What next? Federal Police to set up US/Mexico style armed border crossing checkpoints along the VIC state borders and refuse Vics entry to other states?





I don't think voluntary whatever does work in Australia.

Plastic bags in ocean, speed limit, cigarette butts and now home flu crap.

Does anybody believe that people do not take mask off and hop in a car to urgently do something somewhere?


----------



## seasprite (4 June 2009)

swine flu has been around since mr burns was a toddler .


----------



## kincella (4 June 2009)

since we are now finding out the truth about the Vic bushfires...and how everybody charged with any responsibility , took none whatsover...who could stuff up did so....and who shirked any responsibility.........
leaving hundreds to die.....
then....it stands to reason that ....
I find it really hard to believe that Vic has about 95% of the total confirmed with it...
I seriously wonder what the Vic health dept is testing for ....maybe they are just testing to see if everyone has urine in their system or something just as silly...
its just unbelievable that everyone who has swine virus lives in Vic....and not in the other states...
or is  the testing equipment  contaminated in the first place ????


----------



## nunthewiser (4 June 2009)

seasprite said:


> swine flu has been around since mr burns was a toddler .




HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH that actually brought a tear to my eye

cheers


----------



## spooly74 (4 June 2009)

kincella said:


> .
> its just unbelievable that everyone who has swine virus lives in Vic....and not in the other states...
> or is  the testing equipment  contaminated in the first place ????




4 June 2009: The total of confirmed H1N1 Influenza 09 cases in Australia as at 1200 AEST has increased to 639 – up five from this morning. Most of the new cases reported in recent days are in Victoria. Tasmania has three new cases this morning. Queensland now has 28 confirmed cases. The latest cases are two students from Cairns. One attends St Monica’s Catholic College and the other Cairns State High School. Cairns State High School will be closed from this morning and will re-open on Tuesday if no further cases are reported. The same precautionary closure conditions apply to Warwick State High School where a student, whose sibling has tested positive, has shown symptoms suggestive of influenza. 
Queensland Health staff are available to screen passengers arriving on international flights at Brisbane, Cairns and Gold Coast airports. 

Earlier this morning, a second confirmed case of H1N1 Influenza 09 was reported in the Northern Territory.

*The breakdown is: ACT 4, NSW 70, SA 7, Qld 28, Tas 5, Vic 521, WA 2, NT 2*

http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/i...ntent/health-swine_influenza-index.htm#4jun09


----------



## Calliope (4 June 2009)

Happy said:


> I don't think voluntary whatever does work in Australia.
> 
> Plastic bags in ocean, speed limit, cigarette butts and now home flu crap.
> 
> Does anybody believe that people do not take mask off and hop in a car to urgently do something somewhere?




I just listened to an interview on ABC radio where the interviewer tried to get an answer out out the Qld. health minister as to what he could do if the parents and the kids ignored his quarantine. He rabbitted on about expecting responsible people do do the right thing.

Would these be the same responsible parents who allowed their children to wag school to go to Melbourne for a football game?


----------



## kincella (4 June 2009)

Vic just jumped by another 200+ cases on ch 10 news


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 June 2009)

Interesting situation at work today. Someone is travelling to Melbourne tomorrow and planned to be back at work next Wednesday. They asked me, in complete seriousness, whether they should return to work next week or should stay home because they will have just come back from Vic.

I don't know the "official" answer but I did think about it. One person going to Melbourne to watch football this weekend. Two others going to a concert in a fortnight. That's 3 people all travelling on planes and spending a lot of time surrounded by large numbers of people in very crowded locations in Vic.

In short, I concluded that the risk is significant for just this one workplace. Multiply that across the entire population and there's zero chance of preventing a mass outbreak unless virtually all passenger transport is _completely_ shut down. That won't happen so the only sensible thing to do now is plan for a mass outbreak of swine flu.

I'm not normally into "end of the world is coming so buy tinned food and guns" type thinking but I'm stocking up on food just in case I end up in home isolation as I do think the risk seems real the way this is starting to spread.


----------



## Dowdy (4 June 2009)

I worked at a childcare centre a few days ago that had a child with a case of swine flu.  They ask me if i wanted to work but i wasn't worried so i worked. 

They didn't shut the centre down because it was only 1 child which only found out on the weekend so the health police said it was ok to keep open. 

Well a few days after that the centre was shut down because 2 other kids got it. When they told me on the phone i found it amusing. No one has died and they make such a big deal of it.

If i did catch swine flu so sure it would spread quickly now because i worked in a centre near the docklands - when the rugby was on and when i came home was the time they were entering the stadium so i walked pass half the people entering the stadium. (although i feel fine and wasn't in contact with the children so i had nothing to worry about)


----------



## Calliope (4 June 2009)

The health authorities say it is a good dummy run in case we ever get a serious pandemic. I think it is a comedy of errors. Read what Elizabeth Farrelly has to say;
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/pandemic-pandemonium-pass-the-paracetamol-20090603-bvmg.html


----------



## spooly74 (4 June 2009)

Julia said:


> No, Spooly, it's not at all as valid today as it was in 1918.  The main cause of death then was the bacterial infection (usually in the form of pneumonia) which followed the initial virus.   There was no penicillin, so people died in large numbers.



Hi Julia.
I would suggest a point of difference is that we have some native immunity to  seasonal influenzas. 
Swine flu now looks like it's beyond the point of containment. 
It's known that we have not been exposed to this virus before and that it can be fatal in young people. Alarm bells. 
This sets it apart, and the fact that history showed that millions died previously as a result of the Spanish flu (and it was the second wave that was deadly) tells us that they carry significant hazard potential not associated with the ordinary flu.
Granted that medicine has exponentially improved since 1920, but, it's all a about the numbers. If you get enough people sick, they'll overwhelm the system. People could die in large numbers. Thankfully it doesn't look that way.


> And if you consider comparing swine flue to ordinary seasonal influenza is 'almost completely irrelevant', you are holding a different view from that of the country's Chief Medical Officer and most doctors



I spent 4 days last week in hospital with the birth of my baby girl :bananasmi and they had a seasoned nurse on the door making sure everybody washed their hands at the entrance. I heard that people who coughed or sneezed were asked to leave, politely, and there was literally no access to the nursery.
I'm not sure who introduced this but I was delighted to see it.



aldebaran3003 said:


> Here here!
> *Mexico pushed the red panic button too quickly*, remembering the standard of living and health care.  Now WHO and governments everywhere must try to save face and avoid a please-explain from business and the global public knowing that the *threat and virulence is nowhere near the level it was first thought to be.*  WHO will have learned it's lesson in listening to academics from Mexico.



Swine flu had an initial mortality rate of 6%. Seasonal flu is 0.1% and the Spanish flu was 2.5%. They had to act.


----------



## white_crane (4 June 2009)

kincella said:


> its just unbelievable that everyone who has swine virus lives in Vic....and not in the other states...
> or is  the testing equipment  contaminated in the first place ????




the reason most cases are in Vic is...because they're mexicans


----------



## Junior (5 June 2009)

I live in Melbourne and spend a lot of time in crowded areas.  I'm not changing my behaviour at all.  Over 600 confirmed cases and not one death?  I'm not concerned.


----------



## Timmy (5 June 2009)

Junior said:


> I live in Melbourne and spend a lot of time in crowded areas.  I'm not changing my behaviour at all.  Over 600 confirmed cases and not one death?  I'm not concerned.




Is there even ONE person in hospital with this thing?


----------



## Julia (5 June 2009)

spooly74 said:


> Hi Julia.
> I would suggest a point of difference is that we have some native immunity to  seasonal influenzas.



It may be possible that older people do have some apparent immunity to swine flu in that it's so far affecting only younger people.  No explanation for this so far.





> I spent 4 days last week in hospital with the birth of my baby girl :bananasmi and they had a seasoned nurse on the door making sure everybody washed their hands at the entrance. I heard that people who coughed or sneezed were asked to leave, politely, and there was literally no access to the nursery.
> I'm not sure who introduced this but I was delighted to see it.



Congratulations on the birth of your daughter.  A friend of mine had a baby a few weeks before the advent of the swine flu and although I don't know that anyone coughing or sneezing was asked to leave her room, similarly there was no access to the nursery so perhaps it's just pretty standard practice.


----------



## kincella (5 June 2009)

you will find the answer with google.....

It is likely similar results would hold for earlier H1N1 strains, at least post-1977, when H1N1 reappeared after an absence of 20 years to co-circulate with the H3N2 seasonal flu virus, but we don't know that yet. 47 million people were vaccinated with a swine flu vaccine in 1976. That strain was different, but it could conceivably be playing a part. 

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/05/swine_flu_why_are_older_people.php


----------



## kincella (5 June 2009)

that was one of the most interesting reads in a long time...look at these bits........

One suspicion is that the H1N1 that suddenly "came back" in 1977 was different from the H1N1 circulating before the H2N2 pandemic of 1957. The swine influenza virus of that era was originally from humans that jumped to pigs after the 1918 pandemic. It remains a mystery where the 1977 virus came from, but in 1978 Peter Palese's lab in New York discovered it was closely related to a Russian virus isolated in 1950. Vincent Racaniello, whose Virology Blog is always worth reading, picks up the story:

Influenza viruses of the H3N2 subtype were still circulating in humans in May of 1977 when H1N1 viruses were isolated in China and then Russia. In the winter of 1977-78 the H1N1 viruses caused epidemic infection throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The results of serological tests indicated that the HA and NA glycoproteins of the 1977 H1N1 viruses were very similar to those from viruses of the same subtype which circulated in 1950. Palese’s group compared viral RNA of one 1977 isolate, A/USSR/90/77, with RNA from a virus isolated in 1950. To their surprise, the two viral RNAs were highly related. In contrast, there was less similarity between viral RNAs from the 1977 H1N1 virus and H1N1 viruses that circulated in humans between 1947 and 1956. 
Why were the viral genomes of the 1977 H1N1 isolate and the 1950 virus so similar? If the H1N1 viruses had been replicating in an animal host for 27 years, far more genetic differences would have been identified. The authors suggested several possibilities, but only one is compelling:

. . . it is possible that the 1950 H1N1 influenza virus was truly frozen in nature or elsewhere and that such a strain was only recently introduced into man.
The suggestion is clear: the virus was frozen in a laboratory freezer since 1950, and was released, either by intent or accident, in 1977. This possibility has been denied by Chinese and Russian scientists, but remains to this day the only scientifically plausible explanation.

[snip]

I was a Ph.D. student in Peter Palese’s laboratory when Katsuhisa Nakajima and Ulrich Desselberger did the work in 1978 that revealed the close identity of the H1N1 strains with isolates from 1950. It revealed to me, for the first time, how an important finding creates enormous excitement in the laboratory and in the scientific community, and how general interest is fueled by the press. (Vincent Racaniello, Virology Blog)


Red meat for the tin foil hat brigade, I know. I can't help that, although I am girding myself for the result. But even for the rest of us, a little mystery and intrigue goes a long way to spice up a dreary recital of all the things we don't know and can't predict. And it is an interesting question with possible practical consequences.

http://scienceblogs.com/mt/pings/110580

Comments

2 
'The reason for those over age 55 being relatively protected has nothing to do with their exposure to a influenza strain in the past that provides them with partial immunity.'

I agree Dr. Woodson...in part because there are way too many diseases that are confused with 'stomach flu' etc.

If influenza is a more sporadic disease and coupled with the viruses inherent ability to harness its genetic instability, then immunity isn't the answer.


I know that in other organisms, a particularly "fit" genotype/phenotype will stabilize, sometimes over long periods. Is it possible that the viral strain was a) well-suited to some reservoir that hadn't been recognized, and b) rarely was given an opportunity to jump to humans, so could "disappear" for long periods? Not likely, perhaps, but a possible alternative to being released from a lab...


----------



## xyzedarteerf (6 June 2009)

hey maybe this swine flu was here all along we just didn't test for it before.
the count is now 874 in melb and rising that would be the only explanation as the more people we test the more we find them.:


----------



## Tink (6 June 2009)

We have had mild cases 
Does that mean less people travelling to Melbourne : )

_cough - cough _


----------



## Prospector (6 June 2009)

xyzedarteerf said:


> hey maybe this swine flu was here all along we just didn't test for it before.




Yes, agree totally with that!


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 June 2009)

xyzedarteerf said:


> hey maybe this swine flu was here all along we just didn't test for it before.
> the count is now 874 in melb and rising that would be the only explanation *as the more people we test the more we find them.:*




LOL

I wonder how many people with a bit of a sniffle who haven't bothered to go see their quack actually DO have a Flying Pig on board without even realising it? 

Millions?

Damn it.

The gummint should be promoting Piggy Parties all over Oz to introduce the kiddies to some viral stimulation, thus warding off future Hog Health issues. :dimbulb:

OINK!!


----------



## Prospector (7 June 2009)

I suspect that Casualty wards have been flooded with people who just have the sniffles and not swine flu.  No emergency section could deal with those numbers.  And Victoria isnt even going to test anymore except for exceptional cases.  What a joke!


----------



## Sean K (7 June 2009)

I've just spent 4 weeks in Mexico, and guess what? I'm alive!!!!! Whoohoooo! 

(hope I haven't spoke too soon)


----------



## Green08 (7 June 2009)

This thing is so over dramatized it is dismissable.

Masks won't protect you - yeh and all the 'officials' where them.

Until tens of thousands die a day then I'll think about it.

Media and polies always have a new sensation up their sleeve to keep them in focus. Unbias news - no such thing - just pure entertainment for fools.


----------



## Tink (8 June 2009)

Victoria records world's worst swine flu rate

Yep - as you can see we are all worried - LOL


----------



## shag (8 June 2009)

re masks, u want to do a little research. some fail since they r just a poor fit, plus often they help prevent spread of disease via supression of spreaders.
but different masks have different ratings, up to the paranoid, full scale, full face replacable filter types. i know rather obvious.
they r probably a big waste of dosh till it gets a little more lethal.
who is just worried as we r comming into winter.


----------



## Agentm (8 June 2009)

this flu does not compute

this flu does not compute

danger 

danger


do not tell anyone if you have this flu.. you end up quarantined for 7 days..

btw

your all going to die..

but not of the swine flu


----------



## Green08 (8 June 2009)

Yes I know masks come in various grades P1 P2 P3 but then you have to take in to account each countries rating P2 maybe P3 somewhere. The various manufactuers. 

If I see any one running around in a space suit then I'll know it is OK to go shopping.  Hey the discounts will be unbelievable!

No one has died from being quarantined in their abode for 7 days..

It maybe a better idea to catch the damn thing to build up any tolerance. 

Who knows - it would be a total conspiracy to see how easily humans become undone.


----------



## Julia (8 June 2009)

Green08 said:


> It maybe a better idea to catch the damn thing to build up any tolerance.



This is actually a really sensible idea.   As a disease, it appears to be quite mild and of only a few days' duration.

By allowing the community to develop an immunity by contracting it would probably reduce the potential of the mutated virus down the track.  (if in fact it does mutate.)


----------



## beamstas (8 June 2009)

Julia said:


> This is actually a really sensible idea.   As a disease, it appears to be quite mild and of only a few days' duration.
> 
> By allowing the community to develop an immunity by contracting it would probably reduce the potential of the mutated virus down the track.  (if in fact it does mutate.)




I remember reading something that it's spreading so quickly becasue we don't have immunities to it

So if we get it once then can we not get it again (like chicken pox?)

If so then it might be worth getting it


----------



## prawn_86 (8 June 2009)

It seems like any other strain of flu to me. The media doesnt track the usual winter strain of flu, so why havnt they got over this one by now?


----------



## Green08 (8 June 2009)

beamstas said:


> So if we get it once then can we not get it again (like chicken pox?)




You can get chicken pox as an adult even if you've been immunized as a child, I was told when my children will be @ 15 years the vaccine would wear off. Rather unlucky as it is most uncomfortable - think of a bad case of shingles.

If this is the level of 'panic' from the authorities to stir the public imagine if it were something really dangerous like the black plague But they will have 'avenues' to control the panic. 

People in fear look for help in a higher source. Why don't they just look around themselves and work it out?


----------



## Real1ty (8 June 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> It seems like any other strain of flu to me. The media doesnt track the usual winter strain of flu, so why havnt they got over this one by now?




Because this one they can sensationalise in an attempt to sell more papers/capture a higher audience to increase ratings.


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> Because this one *they can sensationalise in an attempt to sell more papers/capture a higher audience to increase ratings.*




Confucious say:

_"Money worth far more than truth any day of week...."_


----------



## Ghetto23 (9 June 2009)

Ha

I work on a minesite in NW WA - management has banned all people with 'flu-like symptoms' from flying to work...


----------



## Timmy (9 June 2009)

Ghetto23 said:


> Ha
> 
> I work on a minesite in NW WA - management has banned all people with 'flu-like symptoms' from flying to work...




And I bet the drive is a bitch?


----------



## Tink (9 June 2009)

Give them a week and they will change their minds ..

We have gone from Blacklisted to Most Liveable City


----------



## Ghetto23 (9 June 2009)

Timmy said:


> And I bet the drive is a bitch?




Not allowed on site at all. They fear a breakout like in 28 days later...


----------



## Timmy (9 June 2009)

Tink said:


> Give them a week and they will change their minds ..
> 
> We have gone from Blacklisted to Most Liveable City




LOL - good pick up!


----------



## Prospector (9 June 2009)

I think Ms Nicola has realised their swine flu drama has been played too hard.  Now she is saying that Organisers should not be cancelling public events.  But she gave them no choice  - if they went ahead with the event and the participants contracted swine flu, then they would be accountable for that.

Medical people here (in SA) are saying that seasonal flu is causing more havoc than swine flu, but who the heck can tell the difference anyway.  Oh yeah, that's right, they said swine flu was mild, seasonal flu was worse!


----------



## Julia (9 June 2009)

Prospector said:


> I think Ms Nicola has realised their swine flu drama has been played too hard.  Now she is saying that Organisers should not be cancelling public events.



Yes, I heard Ms Roxon furiously back-pedalling on "PM" this evening.  What did she think was going to happen for heaven's sake!   She has been talking up the panic since it started.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (11 June 2009)

Julia said:


> Yes, I heard Ms Roxon furiously back-pedalling on "PM" this evening.  What did she think was going to happen for heaven's sake!   She has been talking up the panic since it started.




Sounds a bit like there GFC approach as well - interesting to see the spin on why we had to mortgage our futures to avoid what is looking like the most pathetic recession in history..... 

Back on topic. I live in Vic and have had cases diagnosed at my sons child care, my daughters school along with her best firends family going down with it and a case at work. The current infection rates in Vic are about 20 in every 100,000. I know of 8 first hand cases - if I look at the populations from which these have occurred the sample is about 4000 people (being very generous about my social circle).

So on the per 100,000 scale the infection rate that I have seen is more like 200 per 100,000 people. Has anyone else got similar experience to me? 

Thankfully it's mild, but if it wasn't could you imagine the panic that our 'balanced and fair'media would induce.......


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 June 2009)

Wow.

So now it is "officially" declared a pandemic?

I love how Vic gummint has wiped it's hands of the whole deal due to the spread being all too much to cope with. We now have a Viccy Swine Flu Black Hole 

NO more counting.
NO more worrying.

Just as well it doesn't have a 100% mortality rate, eh?

Oh, but KRuddy says _"We are doing everything we can to contain it"_

Oh, so gummymint has it all under control?

LOL

Spin me another one, matey.....


----------



## Happy (12 June 2009)

Datsun Disguise said:


> ...
> 
> Thankfully it's mild, but if it wasn't could you imagine the panic that our 'balanced and fair'media would induce.......





Being mild will allow people exposed to it build some immunity natural way.

Big vaccine Companies might not like that!


----------



## MrBurns (12 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Spin me another one, matey.....




You can count on it, he's got more spin than Warney.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (12 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Wow.
> 
> 
> Oh, but KRuddy says _"We are doing everything we can to contain it"_
> ...




Where did this cynicism come from?? What possible reason have you got for accussing Mr Rudd of spin? he looks like such an honest and reliable chap - I understand he's on good terms with God as well, has a successful, mountain climbing, out doorsy (and indoorsy) type wife - the very model of a modern major minister.

Honest question as I've beeing LIVING UNDER A ROCK since just before the Kev and Hocks show on Sunrise aired.

btw love the - "not counting anymore" stance of the vic gov - nice one brumbs - if you don't talk about it people will forget about H1N1, cough and sneeze for 3 days and move on with their lives..


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 June 2009)

> Professor Greg Tannock, a virologist from the Burnet Institute, said that although it was difficult to estimate, *up to one in three people could have picked up the virus by now.*
> 
> "I think one in three is a reasonable estimate, but that's based on sheer gut feeling rather than anything else. We need hard data," he said.
> 
> ...



http://www.theage.com.au/national/onethird-of-victorians-may-have-flu-20090614-c7eq.html

Have you had your dose yet? *sniffle* *coff*

I propose the whole of OZ follow the lead of the Vic Mexicanos in not releasing any further statistics.

Honestly, what we don't know can't possibly hurt us, right?

It's wonderful how our OZ pollies have everything under complete control right now.

Nirvana...


----------



## MrBurns (15 June 2009)

I'm off the Honolulu is 3 weeks, I wonder if I'll make it the way this is going.


----------



## kincella (15 June 2009)

if you are under 60 you should probably be concerned...it does not affect the oldies...only the younger ones
otherwise you have more chance of being hit by lightening or an air crash..then becoming sick with swine flue

or being stabbed by the kids out on the town


----------



## MrBurns (15 June 2009)

I'm under 60 , just, but Vitamin D deficient, taking tabs now, so my immunity is probably down, just found out, dont know how long it's been like that.

I've cancelled the trip now, just too risky.


----------



## kincella (15 June 2009)

immunity is your problem now then.....
but being closer to 60 you might get off scott free
mine crashed when I was about 32....I rarely get the annual coughs and colds...just a big dose of something every 5 or10 years, knocks me around for about 4 months...but now have asthma....and then just recently excema /dermatitis....and the latest is probably very sensitive to textile dye....
this getting old is really crappy...dont know if I want to live for another 30-40years if this is the crap I have to endure...

just wear a mask......or one of those gas mask like things the astronaut's wear  ...hahahaha
I am sure you will be fine....or cancel the holiday until its over


----------



## MrBurns (15 June 2009)

kincella said:


> immunity is your problem now then.....
> but being closer to 60 you might get off scott free
> mine crashed when I was about 32....I rarely get the annual coughs and colds...just a big dose of something every 5 or10 years, knocks me around for about 4 months...but now have asthma....and then just recently excema /dermatitis....and the latest is probably very sensitive to textile dye....
> this getting old is really crappy...dont know if I want to live for another 30-40years if this is the crap I have to endure...
> ...




Yeah I 've cancelled, you cant get insurance against flu now so if I get a cold there's $1500 down the drain.

Getting old sux big time, people treat you like you're invisible, girls in shops dont even look up when they give you the change, shall I go on ?


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Yeah I 've cancelled, you cant get insurance against flu now so if I get a cold there's $1500 down the drain.
> 
> *Getting old sux big time, people treat you like you're invisible, girls in shops dont even look up when they give you the change, shall I go on ?*




Awww, shoot, Burnsy!

I always thought *The Invisible Man *(Tm) was a way cool TV proggy in the 60's - even if it was broadcast in glorious shades of black & white!! 

Gee, the things he could do when he was indivisible made me want to be indivisible too.

Now you say being indivisible sux?

Awww, shoot...

58+ and NOT HAPPY, JAN!!!!

:angry:


----------



## nunthewiser (15 June 2009)

swine flu hits geraldton wa

one school closed so far 


ah choo


----------



## Prospector (16 June 2009)

Ah, my nephew has today tested positive for swine flu!  Was at school yesterday (Westminster, SA) and Year 10 students were quarantined last week.  He is in Year 9.  His mum is a nurse at a large Public Hospital so he was tested immediately.

But he is fine.  Not well enough to go to school, temp of 38.  He was given tamiflu but his mum doesnt think he needs it.  We have been invited down for a swine flu party.


----------



## Nyden (17 June 2009)

Oink, oink - I've got the swine flu!  I best get my affairs in order.

In all honesty, it isn't so bad; it's just the dizziness which has me a little ... dizzy. Sorry, too sick to think of anything really witty.

The sore back and chest-pains aren't exactly fun either, though : Nor is this darn cough!


----------



## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Oink, oink - I've got the swine flu!  I best get my affairs in order.
> 
> In all honesty, it isn't so bad; it's just the dizziness which has me a little ... dizzy. Sorry, too sick to think of anything really witty.




Stay away till you're over it we might catch it


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Oink, oink - I've got the swine flu!  I best get my affairs in order.
> 
> In all honesty, it isn't so bad; it's just the dizziness which has me a little ... dizzy. Sorry, too sick to think of anything really witty.




 BAN HIM!!!


----------



## Nyden (17 June 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Stay away till you're over it we might catch it




Oh, come on - here in Victoria nearly everyone has it : People are all having to stay in their cars to get diagnosed at the doctors office, and the pharmacy is out of tamiflu, as well as masks! Doc said it was too late for tamiflu for me anyway, ugh


----------



## Datsun Disguise (17 June 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> BAN HIM!!!




I don't think I'm being over cautious in saying that I think we need large furnaces into which swine flu people are thrown upon diagnosis. Obvioulsy a big centralised one won't work, probably need to have smaller ones distributed in medical centres. The old people could use it to as a remedy for indivisibleness and eczema as well. COme to think of it perhaps you could nomiate people to be introduced to it's interior - get, say, 10 nomiations and the tribe has spoken and in you go.

If only they'd implemented this in the early days we wouldn't be facing this horror of horrors - sniffles, coughs, muscle pain - it's too much to bare.

*Mr Burns *- you can actually buy specific swine flu insurance - probably cost you more than the $1500 you stand to lose, but it's available - some savy (avian flu experienced) hong kong based insurers are providing it.


----------



## Datsun Disguise (17 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Oh, come on - here in Victoria nearly everyone has it : People are all having to stay in their cars to get diagnosed at the doctors office, and the pharmacy is out of tamiflu, as well as masks! Doc said it was too late for tamiflu for me anyway, ugh




The furnace for you Nyden - resistance is futile.


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## Nyden (17 June 2009)

Datsun Disguise said:


> The furnace for you Nyden - resistance is futile.




A furnace? Ohh, that sounds so warm. I just might take you up on that ... brr :goodnight

There is a very bright side to this though, the fact that I decided to sell my stock holdings so that I wouldn't have to worry about losing profits whilst I was sick  Thank you swine-flu


----------



## johenmo (17 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Oink, oink - I've got the swine flu!
> 
> 
> > Hope you're wearing gloves when you type Nyden.  Or we'll have keyboard-keyboard transmission next.
> ...


----------



## Julia (17 June 2009)

Bad luck, Nyden.  Hope you're better soon.


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> *A furnace?* Ohh, that sounds so warm. I just might take you up on that ... brr :goodnight
> 
> There is a very bright side to this though, the fact that I decided to sell my stock holdings so that I wouldn't have to worry about losing profits whilst I was sick  Thank you swine-flu




Lol.

I'm sure I said "Ban him" - not "BURN him"!!! 

Which version were you told you had? Swine Flu v1.0 or v2.0. Been to Brazil lately?? 



> BRAZILIAN scientists have identified a new strain of the H1N1 virus after examining samples from a patient in Sao Paulo, a research institute says. The variant has been called *A/Sao Paulo/1454/H1N1* by the Adolfo Lutz Bacteriological Institute, which compared it with samples of the A(H1N1) swine flu from California.



http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25649394-5005961,00.html

Whatever, all the best for a speeedy recovery!



aj

PS: I wiped my keys after typing this....


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## Nyden (17 June 2009)

Thank you all 

It really isn't so bad though, I don't quite know what all the fuss is about  Just the media blowing it all out of proportion I suppose

Although, those first few days ... boy was I cold


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## MrBurns (17 June 2009)

Looks like we've moved from *sustain* to *protect *although no one knows what any of those mean, we were in *refrain*, *mundane *and *hold *then *hit with a big stick and run and hide*.

Good to see the Govt's got a handle on this


----------



## Prospector (17 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Thank you all
> 
> It really isn't so bad though, I don't quite know what all the fuss is about  Just the media blowing it all out of proportion I suppose
> 
> Although, those first few days ... boy was I cold




Ah, you have man flu then. My nephew, on Day 2 now, is fine, not even sick enough for the Tamiflu.


----------



## Aussiejeff (17 June 2009)

Prospector said:


> Ah, you have man flu then. My nephew, on Day 2 now, is fine, not even sick enough for the *Tamiflu*.




Oh.

I thought the Tamils were finished...??



BTW, will the new Brazilian v2.0 be come known as the Braflu? :hide:


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## GumbyLearner (17 June 2009)

Swine Flu ad from 1976


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## Timmy (18 June 2009)

Nyden said:


> Oink, oink - I've got the swine flu!




Get well soon Nyden!


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## spooly74 (26 June 2009)

spooly74 said:


> 4th June *The breakdown is: ACT 4, NSW 70, NT 2, Qld 28, SA 7, Tas 5, Vic 521, WA 2, *- total 639



3 weeks later it's as follows:
25th June *The breakdown is: ACT 127, NSW 592, NT 115, Qld 469, SA 224, Tas 67, Vic 1509, WA 177* - total 3280 with 3 related deaths


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## noirua (26 June 2009)

The UK has announced that the figure for registered cases of swine influenza has reached 10,000, and is expected to accelerate into the Autumn (Sept - November).   Deaths total two, one in Scotland and another in England.  There is a warning that pregnant women are more likely to contract swine Flu, the reason is not know, and the form has proven to be more virulent.


----------



## Prospector (26 June 2009)

I think it is not that pregnant women are more likely to contract it, but when they do get it, the effects of the fever (any fever actually) impact on the developing fetus.  The first 3 months are the worst.  So when a pregnant woman gets symptoms, she will get tested for treatment.  If I got the symptoms, I wouldnt bother.  So it just seems like pregnant women are more likely to get it.  Damn statistics and all that.

Young people seem to be the most likely to be suffering this, although for most their immune system is better able to fight it.  It seems that unless you are suffering co-morbidities (obesity/diabetes/cancer) then older people have perhaps already been exposed to enough viruses over the years that they are less likely to contract this virus.  Also, younger people dont tend to get immunised against seasonal flu, the way older people do.  I am sure the picture of who gets it is a mosaic and not influenced by just 1 factor.

My nephew (who tested positive last week) made a very quick recovery after three days - his main symptom was a sore throat and high temp.  He is 14.  Neither of his parents, both of whom nursed him, contracted it.


----------



## noirua (26 June 2009)

Prospector said:


> I think it is not that pregnant women are more likely to contract it, but when they do get it, the effects of the fever (any fever actually) impact on the developing fetus.  The first 3 months are the worst.  So when a pregnant woman gets symptoms, she will get tested for treatment.  If I got the symptoms, I wouldnt bother.  So it just seems like pregnant women are more likely to get it.  Damn statistics and all that.
> 
> Young people seem to be the most likely to be suffering this, although for most their immune system is better able to fight it.  It seems that unless you are suffering co-morbidities (obesity/diabetes/cancer) then older people have perhaps already been exposed to enough viruses over the years that they are less likely to contract this virus.  Also, younger people dont tend to get immunised against seasonal flu, the way older people do.  I am sure the picture of who gets it is a mosaic and not influenced by just 1 factor.
> 
> My nephew (who tested positive last week) made a very quick recovery after three days - his main symptom was a sore throat and high temp.  He is 14.  Neither of his parents, both of whom nursed him, contracted it.



Thanks for that Prospector.  Everything seems to be moving very similar to the epidemic after the First World War when over 50 million were estimated to have died.  My Uncle James died from it in 1919, he was 4-years-old, and both my Grandfathers contracted it and one Grandmother and all survived.


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## Julia (26 June 2009)

Noirua, remember that most of those people died from bacterial infections following the virus, and/or had underlying health problems and they had no penicillin.


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## spooly74 (27 June 2009)

Julia said:


> Noirua, remember that most of those people died from bacterial infections following the virus, and/or had underlying health problems and they had no penicillin.






Roughly 48% of current deaths in the US had no underlying medical condition.





http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=roZ1oOE1QjVE-1BJnkRV5Jw


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## noirua (28 June 2009)

Julia said:


> Noirua, remember that most of those people died from bacterial infections following the virus, and/or had underlying health problems and they had no penicillin.



I don't know about what you say but I expect you're right though Julia. There was a long delay burying people and I was told that some were buried in woodland graves near where they died.

A report on the influenza build up:  http://www.ballaratgenealogy.org.au/digby/1919flu.htm

Over half of those who died were young healthy adults.  675,000 died in America, 17 million in India and around 13,000 in Australia.
Figures are not precise and deaths were put at 21 million originally and raised to 39 million.  Estimates a lot later put figures nearer 100 million.
About one person in five who contracted the virus worldwide died but the figure cannot be checked properly.


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## Prospector (28 June 2009)

noirua said:


> I don't know about what you say but I expect you're right though Julia. There was a long delay burying people and I was told that some were buried in woodland graves near where they died.
> 
> A report on the influenza build up:  http://www.ballaratgenealogy.org.au/digby/1919flu.htm
> 
> ...




You really just cannot compare what happened after WWI with current health practices.


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## Timmy (28 June 2009)

noirua said:


> About *one person in five* who contracted the virus worldwide died but the figure cannot be checked properly.




So this pig flu beat up is nothing like that pandemic, right?


----------



## spooly74 (28 June 2009)

Timmy said:


> So this pig flu beat up is nothing like that pandemic, right?



Swine flu is a pandemic Timmy. It's a specific term that relates to transmissibility, not mortality.

Beat up? Hardly heard a whisper about the 5 dead Aussies. 2 young kids in ICU.

Ominous signs coming from Argentina. 178 new cases with 14 deaths. 
If that mortality rate wasn't bad enough, I understand they have their general elections today.


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## trainspotter (28 June 2009)

I too used the logic that bio tech stock would head North for the winter ... how wrong I was !! Looking at even flow spread on purchase. Swine flu pandemic, winter onslaught in Southern hemisphere, colds and general flu symptoms etc. You would think pill makers would have jumped ... well yes they have a little ... but not much really.


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## Timmy (28 June 2009)

Spooly we are probably going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

Someone has said its on track to be as bad as the flu pandemic early in the 20th century, quoting a 1 in 5 mortality rate.  Just a cursory glance at the figures shows what a ridiculous comparison this is, utterly farcical.  Hence my insisting this is a beat up.  There are any number of diseases, illnesses, and what have you with a much worse effect than the pig flu.

Let me make it clear my view of this as a beat up should in no way diminish the tragedy of those who have died and the pain of their families.


----------



## Julia (28 June 2009)

spooly74 said:


> Swine flu is a pandemic Timmy. It's a specific term that relates to transmissibility, not mortality.
> 
> Beat up? Hardly heard a whisper about the 5 dead Aussies. 2 young kids in ICU.
> 
> ...



Spooly, the ordinary Influenza that occurs each winter causes hundreds of deaths in susceptible people.  The last estimate I saw was 2000 each year.   No one ever makes a fuss about that. So far the swine flu virus on its own is apparently a mild illness.

The deaths in Australia have occurred in people who have an underlying health problem.
As far as I can see so far, the hysteria generated is more of a problem than the virus.





Timmy said:


> Spooly we are probably going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
> 
> Someone has said its on track to be as bad as the flu pandemic early in the 20th century, quoting a 1 in 5 mortality rate.  Just a cursory glance at the figures shows what a ridiculous comparison this is, utterly farcical.  Hence my insisting this is a beat up.  There are any number of diseases, illnesses, and what have you with a much worse effect than the pig flu.



Of course it's ridiculous.   As has already been discussed, the mortality rate in the 20th century flu was as a result of there being no penicillin in those days to fight the bacterial infection that followed the flu virus.


----------



## rcm617 (28 June 2009)

Cant see that this is a beat up, there was a lot in the press in the early stages while we didnt know what we were dealing with, however nowadays its all settled down. One of the reasons why we havent had more fatalities is because we have used the antivirals here up till now, look at the higher numbers in mexico where antivirals were probably not used as often. They certainly werent available in the spanish flu. At least the increased vigilance in the early stages has given us a bit more time to develop a vaccine. With forecasts of swine flu affecting a much larger percentage of the world population than the normal flu due to lack of resistance, even a low percentage of deaths will still result in huge numbers especially in poorer countries without our medical experise.


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## Prospector (28 June 2009)

rcm617 said:


> Cant see that this is a beat up, there was a lot in the press in the early stages while we didnt know what we were dealing with, however nowadays its all settled down. One of the reasons why we havent had more fatalities is because we have used the antivirals here up till now.




Except that even those who didnt take the antivirals with confirmed swine flu, were recovered within 3 days.  We didnt even have penicillin during the Spanish flu. As we have said ad nauseum.  And this disease is so mild, my predictions are that the number of cases will soon slow down to a trickle because people wont bother getting tested.  And there is a theory that older people do have a resistance to this virus which is why it is mainly younger people at school who are testing positive.

And obese people, diabetics and people with compromised immune systems will have issues even with the common cold.  And every one of the deaths so far has involved other illnesses.


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## Timmy (28 June 2009)

rcm617 said:


> result in huge numbers especially in poorer countries without our medical experise.




That is a fair enough point.  

My problem is with the media scaremongering we have seen here in Australia.  That's why I refer to it, and will continue to refer to it, as a beat up.

If it is going to be a problem in Aus. it will be in Aboriginal communities.  Don't get me started on why and the blame game, but care needs to be taken with those living in poorer conditions.


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## noirua (29 June 2009)

Timmy said:


> So this pig flu beat up is nothing like that pandemic, right?



You may be right this time round.  However, the 1918 form of the virus was also quite mild but it change by 1919 to a deadly virus, and the present strain is the same as the 1918 - 20 variant.


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## Prospector (29 June 2009)

noirua said:


> You may be right this time round.  However, the 1918 form of the virus was also quite mild but it change by 1919 to a deadly virus, and the present strain is the same as the 1918 - 20 variant.




Sooooo, wouldn't it therefore be a good idea for people to get this mild strain now, develop the antibodies, so that if it ever should turn nasty, people will have an immune response to it?


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## trainspotter (29 June 2009)

Notice how the H1N1 virus has taken our minds off the hole in the ozone layer or the global meltdown/recession or the war in Iran or the ......... (insert what you like in here)

Approximately 2000 people die from the everyday common garden variety flu in Australia. No headlines screaming pandemic. BUT 5 people shuffle off this mortal coil from ALLEGEDLY H1N1 flu strain and yes they did have underlying medical issues, and KAPOW we are hoodwinked again.

I say allegedly because the South Australian Department of Health confirmed that he died form underlying health conditions read "pneumonia".

A 26-year-old Perth woman late on Friday became the fifth Australian and second West Australian with swine flu to die.

The woman, who authorities say had a pre-existing serious medical condition, had been in Royal Perth Hospital's intensive care unit for several days.

A hospital spokeswoman says it was not known how or when she contracted the human swine flu virus.

She said the woman's family had requested that she not be identified and that no medical details of her condition be released.

A 26-year-old man from the remote WA Aboriginal community of Kiwirrkurra, west of Alice Springs, became the first Australian swine flu fatality when he died in Royal Adelaide Hospital on June 19.

A 71-year-old Melbourne woman who died on Thursday was the fourth Australian with swine flu to die, after a 50-year-old Victorian long-term cancer sufferer died in Melbourne on Wednesday and 35-year-old diabetic man died at Colac in western Victoria on June 20.

*Authorities say all five patients had underlying medical conditions and none of the deaths could be attributed directly to swine flu.*


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## noirua (30 June 2009)

Become an expert on influenza in just under 7 minutes:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHPBdjCFDkE&feature=related
and a little bit more time spent to become an expert: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaCJJzOIxhc&feature=related


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## gooner (30 June 2009)

Prospector said:


> Sooooo, wouldn't it therefore be a good idea for people to get this mild strain now, develop the antibodies, so that if it ever should turn nasty, people will have an immune response to it?




Prospector

At face value, what you say makes sense. However, the reality is that the more the virus is transmitted, the more chance it has to mutate to a deadlier v version. Thus, less transmission means less chance of it turning deadly


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## Aussiejeff (6 July 2009)

It might be mild, but one consequence not yet seriously considered by the media might be severe overloading of our decrepit hospital emergency systems. 

Could a further significant progression *break* already teetering admission systems?



> *A HUGE increase in the number of people presenting to New South Wales hospitals with flu-like symptoms has forced the State Government to make hundreds of extra beds available*. The number of confirmed swine flu cases in NSW has reached 1446, with western Sydney being particularly hard hit.
> 
> *To cope with a 17-fold increase in people with flu symptoms - swine or seasonal - compared to the same period last year, 550 extra beds would be made available, NSW Health Minister John Della Bosca said.*
> 
> ...



http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25739712-5005961,00.html

I wonder how much *extra* on top of already massive deficit budgets might this *mild* outbreak cost both state & fed governements going forward?

It's all well for the health minister to claim an extra 500+ beds will suddenly be made available, but WHO WILL NURSE THE PATIENTS? Already over-stretched staff, is my guess. Wotif a further 1,000+ beds are needed in a hurry? 

Hmmm.


----------



## Prospector (6 July 2009)

Sometimes, no, make that frequently, I am gobsmacked by the failure of Governments to understand the consequences of their actions/warnings.

They send out the red alert panic signals to people about this flu, tell them to present to Hospital emergency and indeed, they are forced to do so because GP's have signs on their doors telling anyone with 'flu symptoms' not to come inside but to go to Hospital, and then 'out of the blue' they are inundated with patients!  Duh!

In SA we are not getting any statistics about swine flu; our hospitals lost their ability to cope with swine flu weeks ago so we dont hear much about it anymore.  99.9% of people dont need hospitalisation for it anyway; those who do need hospital treatment are probably already there!


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## Aussiejeff (6 July 2009)

Prospector said:


> Sometimes, no, make that frequently, I am gobsmacked by the failure of Governments to understand the consequences of their actions/warnings.
> 
> They send out the red alert panic signals to people about this flu, tell them to present to Hospital emergency and indeed, they are forced to do so because GP's have signs on their doors telling anyone with 'flu symptoms' not to come inside but to go to Hospital, and then 'out of the blue' they are inundated with patients!  Duh!
> 
> In SA we are not getting any statistics about swine flu; our hospitals lost their ability to cope with swine flu weeks ago so we dont hear much about it anymore.  99.9% of people dont need hospitalisation for it anyway; *those who do need hospital treatment are probably already there!*




I don't think that is necessarily the case given the current deterioration in management of this outbreak.

Unfortunately, I suspect some patients who really DO need urgent hospital admission are going to suffer the consequences of a system that is rapidly becoming bogged down - probably to a crawl.


----------



## Prospector (6 July 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> I don't think that is necessarily the case given the current deterioration in management of this outbreak.
> 
> Unfortunately, I suspect some patients who really DO need urgent hospital admission are going to suffer the consequences of a system that is rapidly becoming bogged down - probably to a crawl.




Yes, but with people who really dont need to be there who will be clogging up the works because they think they may have swine flu.  For all but a very few people, swine flu is a very mild disease that does not require any treatment other than rest and possibly fever medication.  I personally know of three people (all teenagers) who have had it now, and they all recovered within a couple of days and were partying hard again within a week - semester break and all that!


----------



## nhand42 (6 July 2009)

Julia said:


> Spooly, the ordinary Influenza that occurs each winter causes hundreds of deaths in susceptible people.  The last estimate I saw was 2000 each year.   No one ever makes a fuss about that. So far the swine flu virus on its own is apparently a mild illness.




No, it is not mild, and your attitude is very worrying. The swine flu has a mortality rate of 0.5%; i.e. 1 in 200 people with the virus will die. While that's "mild" compared to the Spanish Flu (2.5%, 1 in 40) it's much worse than the common flu (0.1%, 1 in 1000).

And the reason it's so serious is because it is now a pandemic. That means the virus is widespread with confirmed cases for over 100,000 people, and realistically will affect millions of people.



Julia said:


> The deaths in Australia have occurred in people who have an underlying health problem.




And that is simply not true. I've seen many people repeat that myth, maybe for comfort, but it's not supported by the facts. Young healthy adults are spending weeks on breathing machines... they are the ones who *don't* die.

Google for swine-flu-hits-young-healthy-adults-hard. I can't post links or I'd link directly.




Julia said:


> As far as I can see so far, the hysteria generated is more of a problem than the virus.




Really? Because if anything I'd say the opposite is true. People are entirely laxidasical about the swine flu. I see very few people taking precautions. I see far more people saying "it's not that serious" or "it only affects old and sick people" or "I know somebody who got it and they're fine". 

Your attitude is the real danger. Especially so when someone catches swine flu and plays the "soldier-on" card by going to work, sniffling and sneezing, and making everyone else sick. Imagine you are in an office block and 1 in 200 people died. There are 3000 people in my office block; now imagine 15 of them dead. I'm not sure that would be viewed as just "hysteria".



Julia said:


> Of course it's ridiculous.   As has already been discussed, the mortality rate in the 20th century flu was as a result of there being no penicillin in those days to fight the bacterial infection that followed the flu virus.




The death rate from the 1918 pandemic was actually 20%; far higher than the mortality rate from the virus itself.

You should treat the swine flu with appropriate seriousness. Pretending it's simply a windup, or hysteria, is how you can make the problem worse. At the moment it's entirely treatable if people take caution (e.g. stay home if you're sick, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash your hands). But it people start believing it's not serious, that's when people start dying.


----------



## gav (6 July 2009)

Is it possible to be a "carrier" of swine flu, but display no symptoms? (eg. come in contact with someone who has swine flu, then you pass the flu onto someone else, but you are not display any symptoms yourself)

2 of my brothers housemates have tested positive to swine flu, so my brother thought he should get himself checked out (for his own health, the health of his work colleagues and their customers).  The GP refused to test him because he didn't have any symptoms.  His work did not want to take the risk and told him to take the week off.


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## Prospector (6 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> No, it is not mild, and your attitude is very worrying. The swine flu has a mortality rate of 0.5%; i.e. 1 in 200 people with the virus will die. While that's "mild" compared to the Spanish Flu (2.5%, 1 in 40) it's much worse than the common flu (0.1%, 1 in 1000).
> 
> And the reason it's so serious is because it is now a pandemic. That means the virus is widespread with confirmed cases for over 100,000 people, and realistically will affect millions of people.
> 
> ...




You are kidding right?  The only people who have died from this Pandemic in Australia have been morbidly obese (too heavy to even get into an ambulance) or have co-morbidities like Cancer (and therefore a suppressed immune system) or other significant respiratory illness. And even the Health people are not saying that they died from swine flu, but that they simply tested positive for it. If this was a share thread you would be accused of ramping!  

My nephew had it - he wanted to go back to school three days and said he had had worse colds.  Even the very first person in Adelaide who had it was attending school the day they were tested positive.  The word Pandemic is used not to define its seriousness, but just its spread.

The death is much lower than you say too - the few deaths we have had are only compared with 'official' positive results; most people I know are not being tested for it when they are unwell, and even our Health People are saying it isnt worth testing everyone.

The only poster whom I agree with about the seriousness of this pandemic (Gooner) is that the rate of occurence does make it more likely that the virus might mutate into something else more sinister.

And I am also curious, why are you just picking on Julia for these things - many of us have said similar but you seem to have settled on Julia as your target for some reason.


----------



## Timmy (6 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> No, it is not mild, and your attitude is very worrying. The swine flu has a mortality rate of 0.5%; i.e. 1 in 200 people with the virus will die. While that's "mild" compared to the Spanish Flu (2.5%, 1 in 40) it's much worse than the common flu (0.1%, 1 in 1000).
> 
> And the reason it's so serious is because it is now a pandemic. That means the virus is widespread with confirmed cases for over 100,000 people, and realistically will affect millions of people.
> 
> ...




Absolute rubbish. 1 in 200?????  You have no idea - back up these outlandish statements with some facts.


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## Timmy (6 July 2009)

Australia reports 11th swine flu-related death

23 hours ago

11 deaths as of 23 hours ago.

So at 1 in 200 that means there are 2200 in Australia with the pig flu?

I reckon there's more than that with pig flu in my suburb.


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## Julia (6 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> No, it is not mild, and your attitude is very worrying. The swine flu has a mortality rate of 0.5%; i.e. 1 in 200 people with the virus will die. While that's "mild" compared to the Spanish Flu (2.5%, 1 in 40) it's much worse than the common flu (0.1%, 1 in 1000).



As Timmy has suggested, you need to back up your claims with some evidence.   So far there is no basis for suggesting one in 200 people who contract Swine Flu in Australia will die.  We are well into the winter and so far 11 people have died, all of whom have been reported as having underlying pathology.  The last report I read advised that around 3500 people nationwide have contracted the virus.





> And the reason it's so serious is because it is now a pandemic. That means the virus is widespread with confirmed cases for over 100,000 people, and realistically will affect millions of people.



So what?  The common cold could probably also be considered a pandemic in that it affects millions of people globally.   Until I see confirmed evidence that swine flu is going to be a whole lot more serious than the ordinary influenza which afflicts thousands every year, I decline to panic.







> And that is simply not true. I've seen many people repeat that myth, maybe for comfort, but it's not supported by the facts. Young healthy adults are spending weeks on breathing machines... they are the ones who *don't* die.



Again, you need to post some quantitative and qualitative evidence of this.





> Google for swine-flu-hits-young-healthy-adults-hard. I can't post links or I'd link directly.



Why can't you post links?   It's not difficult.
I'm sure any moderator would be happy to help if you lack the capacity to do this for some reason, although I can't think why you couldn't.










> Really? Because if anything I'd say the opposite is true. People are entirely laxidasical about the swine flu. I see very few people taking precautions. I see far more people saying "it's not that serious" or "it only affects old and sick people" or "I know somebody who got it and they're fine".



And if they are, that's because that is the experience of most of us so far, and further it's what is being advised by the Federal Health Minister.





> Your attitude is the real danger. Especially so when someone catches swine flu and plays the "soldier-on" card by going to work, sniffling and sneezing, and making everyone else sick. Imagine you are in an office block and 1 in 200 people died. There are 3000 people in my office block; now imagine 15 of them dead. I'm not sure that would be viewed as just "hysteria".



Now on this, I completely agree with you.  But then I think anyone with a nasty cold should refrain from mixing it up in public.  But such an opinion would be widely regarded as unreasonably cautious.
I was buying fruit a couple of days ago, didn't bag the grapefruit.
The girl at the checkout sneezed mightily over everything, wiped her nose with her hand and proceeded to handle the grapefruit and then the computer screen!  I considered protesting, but didn't think it would be effective.
Next time I'm there I might have a word to her boss.






> The death rate from the 1918 pandemic was actually 20%; far higher than the mortality rate from the virus itself.



And this has already been addressed.   In those days the secondary bacterial infection could not be treated as penicillin had not been invented.
Hence people died from pneumonia, something which happens much less these days.





> You should treat the swine flu with appropriate seriousness. Pretending it's simply a windup, or hysteria, is how you can make the problem worse. At the moment it's entirely treatable if people take caution (e.g. stay home if you're sick, cover your mouth when you sneeze, wash your hands). But it people start believing it's not serious, that's when people start dying.



Thank you for your advice.  However, I shall continue to treat swine flu as I see appropriate, and so far that is that it's a strain of influenza which is no worse than the ordinary Influenza which afflicts thousands every year.
No publicity or hysteria has in recent years been attached to that.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 July 2009)

Well I have flu. Not sure if it's Swine or some other type but I've been through all the usual flu symptoms over the past few days. Certainly seems to be flu and not just a cold judging by everything being sore etc.

I've stayed home to avoid spreading it around but didn't go to a doctor. Probably should have, but everything I've read says swine is really just another strain of flu so should only be a problem if you've got some other issues already. So I'll never know if it was swine flu or not but it was damn horrible whatever it was. 

Thankfully it's now getting better.


----------



## Julia (6 July 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> Well I have flu. Not sure if it's Swine or some other type but I've been through all the usual flu symptoms over the past few days.
> 
> I've stayed home to avoid spreading it around but didn't go to a doctor (probably should have...) so I'll never know if it was swine flu or not. Damn horrible whatever it was though.
> 
> Thankfully it's now getting better.



Hope you're completely recovered soon, Smurf.

The fact that you were sensible enough to stay home and are recovering means you won't be contributing to statistics, either of swine flu or ordinary flu.
Most people will be the same, now that the initial hysteria has died down.
So I guess we have to regard the stats about who has whatever strain of virus as guesswork at best.


----------



## nhand42 (6 July 2009)

Julia said:


> As Timmy has suggested, you need to back up your claims with some evidence.




As I said, I can't post links, because my account is not enabled to do so. The deprecating remarks weren't necessary.

The CDC has info regarding the mortality rate. The Google search I provided has information about young healthy adults dying from H1N1. Healthy young adults have contracted and died from swine flu within 24 hours. 

The CDC information is even more revealing, because although normal flu is mostly dangerous to over 65s (90% of deaths), H1N1 is mostly dangerous to under-65s. It's completely unlike normal influenza.

The WHO has additional information. Once again, I can't link directly, if I try the forums reject my post. However if you go to the WHO website (who dot int) and click on the latest update, they have the confirmed deaths. The sum total at the end of the table:

   Confirmed cases: 94512	Confirmed deaths: 429

That's a mortality rate of 0.45%. That's *with* penicillin to treat secondary symptoms. And although it's tempting to think "but what about unreported cases" don't think too hard, because the WHO and CDC have used more complex analysis that produces the same rate.



Julia said:


> Thank you for your advice.  However, I shall continue to treat swine flu as I see appropriate, and so far that is that it's a strain of influenza which is no worse than the ordinary Influenza which afflicts thousands every year.




And that's what's worrying.


----------



## Prospector (6 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> As I said, I can't post links, because my account is not enabled to do so.




That's weird, I didnt know there were different levels of membership.  I havent read of any 'healthy young adults' dying of swine flu.  That would be worrying but I dont think it is the case.  That was always the fear, the reality has proven different.

Why is it worrying for people to treat swine flu as the normal seasonal flu?  For people that means staying home in bed and isolation if possible.  Are you saying that is wrong?  Of course, some people treat the common cold like flu, but for those who have had the seasonal flu, there is no way you can get out of bed in under a week.  But swine flu isnt even as nasty as that.


----------



## Timmy (6 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> The WHO has additional information. Once again, I can't link directly, if I try the forums reject my post. However if you go to the WHO website (who dot int) and click on the latest update,




Unfortunately this shows you really have no idea.

The latest update on this site, at 
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_06/en/index.html
shows Australia has 5298 cases.

What a ridiculous figure.

Has the news that Victoria has now completely stopped testing escaped you?  Stopped testing about a month ago.  For someone who purports to be knowledgeable about this you either aren't, or for some reason are being deceptive or obtuse.  

Have a look at the cases in the USA; 34,000 (actually 33,902).  Again, rubbish figures.  The CDC puts the number of cases in the US at 1,000,000.  Go and look it up.

The only basis you could possibly have for saying the WHO figures are even remotely in the ball park is that the virus is not very contagious at all ... right?  

Stop parroting garbage figures and think.  Its the best defence against unwarranted panic.


----------



## nhand42 (7 July 2009)

Timmy said:


> The only basis you could possibly have for saying the WHO figures are even remotely in the ball park is that the virus is not very contagious at all ... right?




The actual basis is that the WHO figures are Confirmed Cases, which is why I mentioned that explicitly, whereas the CDC uses projections. 



Timmy said:


> What a ridiculous figure... Again, rubbish figures... Stop parroting garbage figures and think.




Those are figures from the WHO. If they're garbage then you should contact them immediately and let them know.

PS: are you the local ITG?


----------



## Timmy (7 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> The actual basis is that the WHO figures are Confirmed Cases, which is why I mentioned that explicitly, whereas the CDC uses projections.




You are shopping around a 0.5% mortality rate.
This is patently absurd.

Again, I say to you, stop parroting rubbish and think.



nhand42 said:


> Those are figures from the WHO. If they're garbage then you should contact them immediately and let them know.
> 
> PS: are you the local ITG?




The WHO is big and ugly enough to find out the facts for themselves.
What's ITG?


----------



## nhand42 (7 July 2009)

Timmy said:


> What's ITG?




Internet Tough Guy. All bluster, no substance.


----------



## nhand42 (7 July 2009)

Timmy said:


> The WHO is big and ugly enough to find out the facts for themselves.




That's right. They have. You said their facts are rubbish.

All bluster, no substance.


----------



## nunthewiser (7 July 2009)

lol funny stuff 

thankyou


----------



## Timmy (7 July 2009)

nhand42 said:


> Internet Tough Guy. All bluster, no substance.




I think you will find in psychological terms this is referred to as projection.
Look that up too.

As is so often the case those who make claims that are absurd very quickly go from rational to rationalising.  This is the case here.


----------



## Prospector (7 July 2009)

So calling someone on facts means you are an ITG?   And I reckon if your user name is Timmy then bullying is not one of your Modus operandi.  And I dont think he is the one doing the bluster.  

The swine flu is widespread now, way more than the stated 5000 cases in Oz yet the death rate is extremely low and only in compromised people; sad for their families  but not unexpected; hell I am more worried about the road toll than dying from swine flu.

I am sure you can post your links.  Would be good to see them.


----------



## Happy (7 July 2009)

What I don't understand is why they add the tally continuously?

Surely those who finished quarantine are not threat any longer to spread the disease.
Numbers look impressive, but aren't they bit misleading?

But being impressive they probably give better credibility to devoting so many resources and attention.


----------



## spooly74 (11 July 2009)

> *National case update 10/7/09*
> 
> At noon today Australia has 7933 confirmed cases of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, an increase of 643 cases since noon yesterday. The total number of Australian deaths associated with Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is currently eighteen, with eleven reported in Victoria, one in Western Australia, one in South Australia, one in Northern Territory, one in Tasmania and three in New South Wales.
> 
> ...




Globally, the targeted age groups are mostly children and relatively young adults.
The majority of fatalties are under 65 and most are relatively healthy (Over 50% in the US), again, certainly not associated with seasonal flu. 

The Swine has lasted long after the end of seasonal flu season in the northern hemisphere, and is crowding out seasonal flu in the southern hemisphere. 

Fatalities are on the rise worldwide.

This still has significant hazard potential globally. Nothing has changed my opinion.


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 July 2009)

NSW update...



> *HEALTH experts fear the state's swine flu death toll could soar with six young, healthy people in Sydney fighting for their lives on last-resort cardiac bypass machines because their lungs are too damaged or diseased for regular mechanical ventilation.*
> 
> The surge in the number of people with swine flu needing life-saving treatment has forced NSW Health to consider closing elective surgery at some big hospitals to allow staff to redirect resources.



http://www.smh.com.au/national/swine-flu-warning-as-deaths-increase-20090713-diti.html

Just a thought on the back of that news... I guess when we talk about comparisons with the massive death toll from the Spanish flu back in the 20's and smugly consider ourselves not in any danger at all with this one, we need to remember that back then... 

- there were no flu vaccines or alternative drug treatments (Tamiflu, Relenza et all).

- there was no widespread availability of hi-tech ventilation units to save lives until the crisis passed (eg - see todays story).

- there was no widespread availability of portable oxygenation units etc.

- the general medical care available back then was paltry compared to today.

So, I wonder how many fatalities back then would have been saved if they were living in today's medical hi-tech world? Most of those millions that perished? 

Or, to put it another way, if you went back in a time machine and dropped today's version of swine flu onto the unsuspecting '20's population _instead_ of the "Spanish flu" would today's swine flu variant end up causing as many fatalities as what the "Spanish" version actually ended up causing?

Hmmm.



aj


----------



## Prospector (14 July 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Just a thought on the back of that news... I guess when we talk about comparisons with the massive death toll from the Spanish flu back in the 20's and smugly consider ourselves not in any danger at all with this one......
> 
> Or, to put it another way, if you went back in a time machine and dropped today's version of swine flu onto the unsuspecting '20's population _instead_ of the "Spanish flu" would today's swine flu variant end up causing as many fatalities as what the "Spanish" version actually ended up causing?
> 
> aj



But that is exactly the point that Julia and I have tried to make all along.  We are simply not living in the 1900's; we have not just come off fighting an intolerable war, we do have penicillin etc etc.  I dont think our comments came from smugness that we are better than the times of the Spanish flu, but we certainly are 'better placed' to fight the complications.


----------



## Calliope (14 July 2009)

http://www.smh.com.au/world/swine-flu-healthy-chloe-6--dies-20090714-djng.html

*Swine flu: 'healthy' Chloe, 6, dies*



> Parents in Britain have been urged not to panic after swine flu apparently claimed the life of a fit six-year-old girl.
> 
> Chloe Buckley, from west London - who would have been seven on Friday - was described as "perfectly healthy" in the days before she started feeling ill.
> 
> She saw her doctor last Wednesday, complained of flu-like symptoms and died the following day.





> Speaking after news of Chloe's death, Simon Tanner, regional director of public health for London, said: "The Health Protection Agency is now seeing large numbers of people with the virus. This will probably not be the last death."
> 
> Nearly 10,000 Britons have been confirmed as suffering from swine flu but hundreds of thousands more are feared to have the virus.
> 
> The British Government has given warning that the number of cases could rise to 100,000 a day by the end of next month and eventually affect one in two people.




A 64 year old doctor also died. It's spreading across all ages, apparently.


----------



## Surfer35 (14 July 2009)

Let's just hope this thing mutates faster than medicine can keep it in check. It's just what the planet needs. A nice pandemic to cut some of our numbers back since we appear too stupid to do it ourselves.

It's not going to be nice for those personally affected by it, but it's about time nature gave us the bitchslap we need.


----------



## Julia (14 July 2009)

Surfer35 said:


> Let's just hope this thing mutates faster than medicine can keep it in check. It's just what the planet needs. A nice pandemic to cut some of our numbers back since we appear too stupid to do it ourselves.
> 
> It's not going to be nice for those personally affected by it, but it's about time nature gave us the bitchslap we need.



I wonder if you'll be quite so gung ho if you find yourself about to expire from this useful little virus?   "No worries", you'll cheerfully say to yourself,  "it's just what the planet needs", as you smilingly take your final breath.


----------



## matty2.0 (14 July 2009)

Julia said:


> I wonder if you'll be quite so gung ho if you find yourself about to expire from this useful little virus?   "No worries", you'll cheerfully say to yourself,  "it's just what the planet needs", as you smilingly take your final breath.




Here, here!


----------



## Calliope (14 July 2009)

Julia said:


> I wonder if you'll be quite so gung ho if you find yourself about to expire from this useful little virus?   "No worries", you'll cheerfully say to yourself,  "it's just what the planet needs", as you smilingly take your final breath.




Yes, if it weeds out the stupid, surfer35 will be the first to go.


----------



## trainspotter (14 July 2009)

Could be Darwins theory? Survival of the fittest and natural selection and all that stuff? Would certainly have a few Creationists scratching their heads if this turns into the Apocalypse.


----------



## Prospector (14 July 2009)

The swine flu story just won't disappear, will it!  Even though the people I know who have had it have only experienced a mild illness I am starting to think that perhaps there is just something that we haven't been told. Or is it all media and Govt hype to disguise other things. Normally stories like this fade away but this hasn't happened. And that surprises me somewhat. Not sure what to think really.


----------



## trainspotter (14 July 2009)

Is this the next big global flu epidemic that public health experts have long anticipated and worried about? Is this the novel virus that will kill millions around the world, as pandemics did in 1918, 1957 and 1968?

The short answer is, it's too soon to tell.

"What makes this so difficult is we may be somewhere between an important but yet still uneventful public health occurrence here - with something that could literally die out over the next couple of weeks and never show up again - or this could be the opening act of a full-fledged influenza pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, a prominent expert on global flu outbreaks with the University of Minnesota.

"We have no clue right now where we are between those two extremes. That's the problem," he said.


----------



## Timmy (14 July 2009)

Prospector said:


> The swine flu story just won't disappear, will it!




There will be more to come about it as the northern hemisphere goes into winter in coming months, I would think.


----------



## Prospector (15 July 2009)

So thinking about this again, I wonder if Swine Flu is the only thing that all countries can 'unite' on at the moment, so it is a globally accepted topic, with everyone agreeing on the causes and actions.  So it makes it safe to talk about and not one Government will disagree.  Hell, even Muslims and Christians agree!

Bring on global warming I say, at least that will stop this pesky virus combining with seasonal flu!:


----------



## noirua (15 July 2009)

The UK has announced that they expect one third of the people, 20 million, to have contracted swine flu by the end of next winter (March 2010).  14 have died so far which included one healthy adult and one child.

There has been no reported change in the virus so far.


----------



## moneymajix (15 July 2009)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza


*Swine Influenza*

1976 U.S. outbreak

On February 5, 1976, in the United States an army recruit at Fort Dix said he felt tired and weak. He died the next day and four of his fellow soldiers were later hospitalized. Two weeks after his death, health officials announced that the cause of death was a new strain of swine flu. The strain, a variant of H1N1, is known as A/New Jersey/1976 (H1N1). It was detected only from January 19 to February 9 and did not spread beyond Fort Dix.[29]


This new strain appeared to be closely related to the strain involved in the 1918 flu pandemic. Moreover, the ensuing increased surveillance uncovered another strain in circulation in the U.S.: A/Victoria/75 (H3N2) spread simultaneously, also caused illness, and persisted until March.[29] Alarmed public-health officials decided action must be taken to head off another major pandemic, and urged President Gerald Ford that every person in the U.S. be vaccinated for the disease.[30]

The vaccination program was plagued by delays and public relations problems.[31] On October 1, 1976, the immunization program began and by October 11, approximately 40 million people, or about 24% of the population, had received swine flu immunizations. That same day, three senior citizens died soon after receiving their swine flu shots and there was a media outcry linking the deaths to the immunizations, despite the lack of positive proof. According to science writer Patrick Di Justo, however, by the time the truth was known — that the deaths were not proven to be related to the vaccine — it was too late. "The government had long feared mass panic about swine flu — now they feared mass panic about the swine flu vaccinations." This became a strong setback to the program.[32]

There were reports of Guillain-BarrÃ© syndrome, a paralyzing neuromuscular disorder, affecting some people who had received swine flu immunizations. This syndrome is a rare side-effect of modern influenza vaccines, with an incidence of about one case per million vaccinations.[33] As a result, Di Justo writes that "the public refused to trust a government-operated health program that killed old people and crippled young people." In total, less than 33% of the population had been immunized by the end of 1976. The National Influenza Immunization Program was effectively halted on December 16.

*Overall, there were about 500 cases of Guillain-BarrÃ© syndrome (GBS), resulting in death from severe pulmonary complications for 25 people, which, according to Dr. P. Haber, were probably caused by an immunopathological reaction to the 1976 vaccine. Other influenza vaccines have not been linked to GBS, though caution is advised for certain individuals, particularly those with a history of GBS.[34][35] Still, as observed by a participant in the immunization program, the vaccine killed more Americans than the disease did.[*36]


----------



## Tink (15 July 2009)

I think the tabloids have done the right thing putting it in the paper, maybe not to the extent that they did, scaring everyone, but they didnt know what they were in for.

I still dont think they know what they are in for so they are moving with caution as they learn more about it..

I know a few that have had mild cases and some that have had it pretty bad

Really high fever and hallucinating, vomiting, this was a 10 year old child
He was playing sport the day before and by the night was out of it..

He was brought into hospital, kept under surveillance, was going to be sent home the next day but vomited and started again, so they gave him the tamiflu and he has been ok since..

Rashes all over their bodies, that stay long over the week -- just to name a few things on the bad side

Must say, the hospitals do panic when they get a case..


----------



## moneymajix (15 July 2009)

Discovery Channel in July will be screening ... a controlled experiment to see exactly what it would take to survive and rebuild after a global catastrophe, specifically a worldwide viral pandemic scheduled to strike this autumn. 



“The Colony is a controlled experiment to see exactly what it would take to survive and rebuild under these circumstances. For 10 weeks, a group of 10 volunteers, whose backgrounds and expertise represent a cross-section of modern society, are isolated in an urban environment outside Los Angeles and tasked with creating a livable society,” a description of the show explains. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOKO19BMPKk&feature=fvst


.


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## Mr J (15 July 2009)

Julia said:


> I wonder if you'll be quite so gung ho if you find yourself about to expire from this useful little virus?   "No worries", you'll cheerfully say to yourself,  "it's just what the planet needs", as you smilingly take your final breath.




I doubt he would, but that doesn't mean there's no value in what he said.


----------



## spooly74 (16 July 2009)

> HEALTH experts fear the state's swine flu death toll could soar with six young, healthy people in Sydney fighting for their lives on last-resort cardiac bypass machines because their lungs are too damaged or diseased for regular mechanical ventilation.



More on this story out now. It appears all six patients are pregnant or have just given birth.
FWIW, pregnancy is an underlying medical condition.



> UP TO six new mothers infected with swine flu are on life support after giving birth prematurely because the virus was threatening the lives of their babies.
> 
> The women, all from the western suburbs of Sydney, are fighting for their lives in four hospitals, and at least two of the babies are also in intensive care because they were born with respiratory problems.
> 
> ...




This virus seems in a minority of cases to get deep into the lungs. 
Does anyone have any figures on how many respiratory systems are generally available in hospitals?



> There has been no reported change in the virus so far.



A Tamiflu resistant strain of swine flu has been found in Denmark, Japan and Hong Kong. It doesn't seem to have spread forward from here, thankfully.


----------



## Prospector (16 July 2009)

Pregnancy certainly is an important and serious matter for any virus.  I wonder though, given the short space of time this has escalated, how much the virus was known to affect babies in utero, or whether this intervention was an educated guess.

On the radio today the head of SA Health said that swine flu was much more prevalent in Mexico than we have been told.  But only the most seriously affected were ever tested and these were the ones most at risk of dying from its complications.  Which is why the death rate in Mexico was much higher - the statistics were skewed.

And from another source  why did Victoria get hit so hard?  This hasnt been in the media, but a few weeks before the outbreak was 'reported' to have 'started' in Australia, it seems a Victorian school trip had returned from.....Mexico!  Because it was a mild disease and not publicised in Australia as yet, a significant part of the Victorian school community was already circulating it well before it was publicised!

Relenza is used when Tamiflu is ineffective.


----------



## matty2.0 (16 July 2009)

http://www.goldcoastunited.com.au/default.aspx?s=newsdisplay&id=28226


_


Gold Coast in swine flu scare
Thursday, 16 July 2009
by Sportal

Gold Coast players
Gold Coast players

Gold Coast United's preparations for its clash with the Central Coast Mariners on Saturday took a sever blow after medical tests revealed five players had contracted swine flu.

Although Tahj Minniecon was the only player to be officially confirmed with the H1N1 virus, the other four in Adam Grifiths, Joel Porter, Daniel Piorkowski and Matt Osman all displayed similar symptoms with tests on Thursday set to confirm that diagnosis.

Gold Coast United physiotherapist, David Battersby, said the club had taken all the necessary precautions to prevent further spread of the virus.

"Tahj is confirmed as having swine flu and the other players concerned are being treated as if they also have the virus," Battersby said.

"It takes four days for test results for swine flu to come back, so in the interim we take the highest common denominator and assume that all the players with flu-like symptoms have the same thing."
_


----------



## Prospector (16 July 2009)

matty2.0 said:


> *"It takes four days for test results for swine flu to come back*, so in the interim we take the highest common denominator and assume that all the players with flu-like symptoms have the same thing."
> [/I]




Um, that is, dare I say it, Crap!  It takes a couple of hours to get results that you do have an Influenza virus and then perhaps another two to get confirmation as to whether or not it is Swine Flu.  They already know if they have it!


----------



## noirua (17 July 2009)

Swine flu deaths in the UK have risen to 29 and 55,000 new cases reported last week alone. Depending on the severity of the virus, deaths are expected  to reach up to 65,000 next winter - Nov 2009/ March 2010.


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (17 July 2009)

noirua said:


> Swine flu deaths in the UK have risen to 29 and 55,000 new cases reported last week alone. Depending on the severity of the virus, deaths are expected  to reach up to 65,000 next winter - Nov 2009/ March 2010.




Is that taking into account the vaccination which will be rolled out there next month?


----------



## noirua (17 July 2009)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Is that taking into account the vaccination which will be rolled out there next month?





Got me there UBIQUITOUS, here are the links, UK swine flu deaths reach 29: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8154419.stm

Pandemic threat worse than Terror: http://news.aol.co.uk/pandemic-threat-worse-than-terror/article/20090716113640881432565


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (17 July 2009)

noirua said:


> Got me there UBIQUITOUS, here are the links, UK swine flu deaths reach 29: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8154419.stm
> 
> Pandemic threat worse than Terror: http://news.aol.co.uk/pandemic-threat-worse-than-terror/article/20090716113640881432565




I would say that the mortality figures will be nowhere near those. The take up on the swineflu vaccination will be much much higher than the regular flu vaccination. I expect this will result in an eradication of this strain within a couple of years.

Hey, i'm sounding like an expert now, but am really just guessing.


----------



## spooly74 (17 July 2009)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Is that taking into account the vaccination which will be rolled out there next month?






> Swine flu vaccine still months away, says global health chief.
> Head of World Health Organisation casts doubt on government's claim that first stocks will arrive in August
> 
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/14/swine-flu-vaccination-who-chan




As others have suggested, the stats for those who actually have the flu are skewed. But a mortality rate of between 0.5%-1% doesn't seem to far off the mark for those who need hospitalisation.


----------



## Happy (17 July 2009)

There will be definitely more survivers, as blood can be oxygenated outside the body, so we are only limited by number of machines.


----------



## spooly74 (17 July 2009)

Happy said:


> There will be definitely more survivers, as blood can be oxygenated outside the body, *so we are only limited by number of machines*.



That's what I was wondering. How many spares are available?
The number of hospitalisations due to swine flu doubled to 200 in a week.


----------



## noirua (19 July 2009)

"Flu risk for indigenous people": http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8132069.stm


----------



## noirua (23 July 2009)

The BBC have announced a rise from the 55,000 cases of Swine flu reported last week to over 100,000 cases this week, in the UK.  840 are in hospital, and 63 people are seriously ill in intensive care and 31 have died (figure expected to be raised later today). The highest number of cases concern younger people under 14 years of age.


----------



## Mindsphere (23 July 2009)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> I would say that the mortality figures will be nowhere near those. The take up on the swineflu vaccination will be much much higher than the regular flu vaccination. I expect this will result in an eradication of this strain within a couple of years.
> 
> Hey, i'm sounding like an expert now, but am really just guessing.




There is always the possibility for mutations to render the vaccines ineffective, which is what happens each flu season I believe.. :/


----------



## Calliope (25 July 2009)

It's midsummer in Britain and yet they are copping it worse than we are in midwinter.


http://www.smh.com.au/world/britain...ousands-rush-for-treatment-20090724-dw6y.html



> *Britain battles flu panic as thousands rush for treatment*
> 
> July 25, 2009
> SWINE flu panic has gripped Britain, with a dramatic spread of the virus sending a new online prescription service into meltdown. Infection cases have doubled to 100,000 in just a week.
> ...


----------



## jackson8 (25 July 2009)

hi all 

sounds like most of the cases where people have actually died is due to having other underlying health issues

i have a 21 year old who has been diagnosed with the swine flu , confirmed with blood test ...........henceforth his girlfriend and another friend who they live with have all been diagnosed with same

each of them have presented systems for one or two days then have pretty well recovered .....knock on wood.......not too excessive lots of coughing and sore throats but not bedridden.

my point being i dont think we need to be too hysterical about the issue just need to safeguard those of the public who are in high risk categories eg. the young, the old and the ill


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## windy (26 July 2009)

http://dprogram.net/2009/04/25/do-not-take-a-swine-flu-vaccine/
http://www.prisonplanet.com/12000-u-s-children-to-be-swine-flu-vaccine-guinea-pigs.html
DYOR if you want to know the truth. The truth will set you free.
Be utterly afraid. The powers that be have created this health scare for their own sick personal and political reasons.


----------



## spooly74 (26 July 2009)

jackson8 said:


> my point being i dont think we need to be too hysterical about the issue just need to safeguard those of the public who are in *high risk categories eg. the young, the old and the ill*



It is not just the old and very young who are dying.


windy said:


> DYOR if you want to know the truth. The truth will set you free.
> Be utterly afraid.



Gob$hite


----------



## Calliope (2 August 2009)

Human to pig transmission of the virus will naturally turn some alarmists off eating pork.

The upside is that pork will be cheaper.


----------



## nunthewiser (2 August 2009)

is currently on lockdown at home also because i have suspected swine flu 

i can confirm  things aint pretty 

crook as a bleedin dog

hence posting on near on every thread that pops up 

at least this way i can share the suffering , the longer im crook the more u have to put up with my ramblings

aaahhhhh choooooooooooooo


----------



## Timmy (2 August 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> is currently on lockdown at home also because i have suspected swine flu




Get well soon nun!







source


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## nunthewiser (2 August 2009)

awwwww thankyou very much timmy


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## 2020hindsight (2 August 2009)

Real1ty said:


> .



post #267
"you lill bastard, you've killed us all" - that one's a classic.  

Still it's interesting that the act of kissing/ licking the pig's nose can transfer the flue either boy-to-pig, or pig-to-boy.  

PS Next thing you know, some lady scientist working with pig IVF will probably get pregnant


----------



## Timmy (3 August 2009)

Report just published:

Swine flu's potency revealed in report

_Here, we present the first six cases of H1N1 influenza ... in which patients required admission to intensive care in Australia," a group of doctors write in the Medical Journal of Australia._

The article is informative and manages to be so without being alarmist.

It concludes:
_The doctors note the swine flu was a "benign disease" but that it could lead to severe respiratory complications.

"In our series, prompt diagnosis and intensive therapy was associated with favourable outcomes," they also write._


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## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

Timmy said:


> Report just published:
> 
> Swine flu's potency revealed in report
> 
> ...




thanks timmy 

i actually went to bed feeling fine and woke up having an asthma attack( i suffer from asthma but very minor and very irregularly)  also massive fever and coughing my guts up 


my normal asthma medication did not fix the situation so went to the ER 



i was put straight onto a nebulizer  until i could breath a lil better again 

i was given tami flu , more ventolin , a script for augmentin ? and some panadeine, i also hired a nebulizer machine from the hospital and sent home being told " do not go out coughing on ppl "......... i haven't actually been told i have swine flu , i haven't actually even been told theres anything wrong .

i already had a " normal" flu jab so  it cant be normal flu can it ? 

just a suspected swine so far  .............cant be a confirmed one ......... makes for scary reading 


anyways.......as im typing this i,m starting to think of skimpy barmaids , countermeals and loud music so i guess this " flu" will have to be over and done with by wednesday lunchtime at the latest






'


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## Cartman (3 August 2009)

Sorry u r not well Nun --- perhaps we should send a few "sisters" round to cheer u up -------:whip

oops -- sorry, wrong convent ----

proabably best u just get some sleep :goodnight


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## 2020hindsight (3 August 2009)

recommend you go get some oinkment nun
:bricks1:


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## Calliope (3 August 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> i was given tami flu , more ventolin , a script for augmentin ? and some panadeine, i also hired a nebulizer machine from the hospital and sent home being told " do not go out coughing on ppl "......... i haven't actually been told i have swine flu , i haven't actually even been told theres anything wrong .




*a scrip for augmentin*??? An antibiotic! They were certainly covering all bases.


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## Timmy (3 August 2009)

2020hindsight said:


> recommend you go get some oinkment nun
> :bricks1:




LOL ... how could I have missed that one?  A gimme!


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## Prospector (3 August 2009)

Calliope said:


> *a scrip for augmentin*??? An antibiotic! They were certainly covering all bases.




Yup.  Augmentin is a double barrel antibiotic too - have heard of so many people who react violently to it.


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## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

2020hindsight said:


> recommend you go get some oinkment nun
> :bricks1:





oh thats just cringeworthy


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## trainspotter (3 August 2009)

Do you have a rash? A bacon rash? If so then you have swine flu. LOLOLOL


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## Calliope (3 August 2009)

Prospector said:


> Yup.  Augmentin is a double barrel antibiotic too - have heard of so many people who react violently to it.




I asked my doctor today why they would prescribe an antibiotic for swine flu. He said he does it himself, as the flu can so easily turn into pneumonia, especially in older people. The antibiotic is to be on the safe side


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## Buddy (3 August 2009)

2020hindsight said:


> recommend you go get some oinkment nun
> :bricks1:





On the otherhand, if you had bird flu, you would need to get some tweetment.


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## nunthewiser (3 August 2009)

good grief you guys are .....crackling.. me up


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## moXJO (5 August 2009)

Blaahh had the flu two weeks ago which put me on my rear for a day or so. Since Sunday just gone, have felt a funny pain every time I take a breath. Thought I might get over it, but no had to bite the bullet and see the doc as symptoms got worse. Ended up being a lung infection he seemed surprised I wasn't feeling worse and had more symptoms

 As fun as sitting round the office doing bookwork, trading and posting stupid comments on ASF threads are. I think I might hit the job sites 2morrow.

 So long as I take the tablets it shouldn't affect me if I work yeah

And I know I should have asked the doctor


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## Smurf1976 (5 August 2009)

We've now reached literally 100% of staff in my group at work losing at least some time due to flu over the past six weeks. So it's certainly going around at the moment.


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## spooly74 (14 August 2009)

Smurf1976 said:


> We've now reached literally 100% of staff in my group at work losing at least some time due to flu over the past six weeks. *So it's certainly going around at the moment*.




It sure is and going off recent history, it could be argued that the virus hasn't peaked yet.
There are currently 450 people in hospital with 109 of those in intensive care.
Sadly, the number of deaths has now passed 100 here in Australia, with the median age of fatalities at 56.

This graph below paints an ominous picture of what's in store for the northern hemisphere this winter. Granted, there would have been a lot more testing done this year because of the pandemic, but it's important to remember, this is only the 1st wave.

Wash your hands, cover your mouth etc etc 

ps: especially after handling money, it's thought the virus can stay on money for a number of hours.


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## Timmy (14 August 2009)

spooly74 said:


> the number of deaths has now passed 100 here in Australia,




Source of this please spooly?

This is the latest I have seen (August 5th):

_Australia's Health Minister Nicola Roxon  said today there had been 74 deaths in Australia of people who had tested positive for swine flu. _ http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25888083-23109,00.html


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## spooly74 (15 August 2009)

Timmy said:


> Source of this please spooly?
> 
> This is the latest I have seen (August 5th):
> 
> _Australia's Health Minister Nicola Roxon  said today there had been 74 deaths in Australia of people who had tested positive for swine flu. _ http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25888083-23109,00.html




http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/i...publishing.nsf/Content/updates-16August09.htm


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## Timmy (15 August 2009)

spooly74 said:


> http://www.healthemergency.gov.au/i...publishing.nsf/Content/updates-16August09.htm




Thanks spooly.

Love the graph - the power of marketing.


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## nunthewiser (15 August 2009)

i am all better now give or take a cough or 3 

thankyou for all gifts and cards and offers of seedy rubdowns whilst dressed in nurse uniforms in my message box 

normal habits may resume now


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## drsmith (15 August 2009)

In one part of rural South Australia at least, people with serious flu symptoms are not being formally assessed as to whether they have swine flu or not.

They are simply being advised to take Nurofen and stay home for a week. This is in cases where there are not complications with other health issues.


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## Prospector (15 August 2009)

People arent being tested for swine flu anywhere in Australia unless there are specific reasons (eg pregnancy, other illnesses).  That policy was introduced about 8 weeks ago.


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## Timmy (15 August 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> normal habits




good one!


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## noirua (7 September 2009)

"Security Chief Dies of Swine Flu", http://news.aol.co.uk/security-chief-dies-of-swine-flu/article/20090907005752132153429


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## Timmy (13 September 2009)

C'mon all you swine flu Chicken Littles ... this hit the news over 24 hours ago and there has been a distinct lack of foaming-at-the-mouth-fear-mongering from the usual suspects.  

Well just this time I will try to induce some panic for you, but I'm only going to do this once, OK?

Australia records Tamiflu-resistant swine case


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## Prospector (13 September 2009)

:yawn

  I need a yawn icon.

Health Authorities in SA said a few weeks ago that the number of cases from seasonal flu v's swine flu were  in the ratio of 1:3    The good news about that is that far more people die from seasonal flu, which means that this year the death rate from any influenza virus is way down!


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 September 2009)

My doc told me that the swine flu virus is less vigorous , the warmer it is.

So we should be ok now that we are heading towards summer.

The Northern hemisphere will cop it now.

And I believe the virus can change as it goes from one to another.

gg


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## spooly74 (14 September 2009)

Timmy said:


> C'mon all you swine flu Chicken Littles ... *this hit the news over 24 hours ago and there has been a distinct lack of foaming-at-the-mouth-fear-mongering from the usual suspects*.




You're not wrong Tim, haven't seen metric here for a while


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## Timmy (14 September 2009)

spooly74 said:


> You're not wrong Tim, haven't seen metric here for a while




Ahhhh, not mentioning any names spooly - the worst of the panic merchants are the ones using fear to sell their newspapers or TV shows ...


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## Aussiejeff (25 October 2009)

Timmy said:


> Ahhhh, not mentioning any names spooly - the worst of the panic merchants are the ones using fear to sell their newspapers or TV shows ...




Or Obama?

*Obama declares swine flu emergency *

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...ne-flu-emergency/story-e6frf7k6-1225790969543


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## noirua (25 October 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Or Obama?
> 
> *Obama declares swine flu emergency *
> 
> http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...ne-flu-emergency/story-e6frf7k6-1225790969543




Looks bad news indeed and the UK have seen a marked uplift in cases as well. There are very many more people in a serious condition.

Fortunately the ASF Internet Cafe is open again for this years voting. With the new virus free zone that guarantees you will not catch the disease there.  And to vote in these serious times go to: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums

We at "ASF" are tied at the moment so we need to get some wind in our sales.


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## noirua (22 November 2009)

Tamiflu resistant swine flu virus spreads as fears grow, as virus mutates:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8370859.stm


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## Aussiejeff (22 November 2009)

noirua said:


> Tamiflu resistant swine flu virus spreads as fears grow, as virus mutates:
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8370859.stm




Ahhh, but I'll see your mutant swine & raise you an 'official' riposte...  



> SWINE flu vaccines are still effective despite reported cases of mutations in the A(H1N1) virus, health experts in Europe and the US say.




http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...utations-experts/story-e6frf7k6-1225801697169

For every 'thrust' in the ongoing media war, there is a 'parry' to counter.

Love it.


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## noirua (23 November 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Ahhh, but I'll see your mutant swine & raise you an 'official' riposte...
> 
> http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...utations-experts/story-e6frf7k6-1225801697169
> 
> ...




You can't however parry if you are dead because tamiflu no longer works, as the virus mutates, as it did in 1919-21.


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## Aussiejeff (23 November 2009)

noirua said:


> *You can't however parry if you are dead* because tamiflu no longer works, as the virus mutates, as it did in 1919-21.




Touche, mon ami..!

Sacre bleu!!!!


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## trainspotter (18 March 2010)

BTW - Whatever happened to swine flu? I thought the dead bodies would be piled 50 deep at the morgue by now? Is this the same as Y2K? Could the same be said for Global Warming? Was the whole thing a media beat up? Anyone got any answers?


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## Sdajii (18 March 2010)

trainspotter said:


> BTW - Whatever happened to swine flu? I thought the dead bodies would be piled 50 deep at the morgue by now? Is this the same as Y2K? Could the same be said for Global Warming? Was the whole thing a media beat up? Anyone got any answers?




Basically, it was a new virus, so no one knew what it was like, which meant it wasn't sure to be mild. Even after we learned it was a mild flu, being new it had a very high chance of mutating, and if it did there was the potential for it to become something which would have the bodies piled 50 high. The chance was there, but it didn't eventuate. It might look like wolf was cried, but it was a case of preparing for the very real possibility (as opposed to certainty) of a global disaster.

Y2K was an obvious load of crap long before 2000 came along. Global warming is a can of worms!


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## cornnfedd (18 March 2010)

Aparently Tammiflu doesnt work on the new strain (see commercial produced virus by the drug companies that is swine flu)


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## nunthewiser (19 March 2010)

cornnfedd said:


> Aparently Tammiflu doesnt work on the new strain (see commercial produced virus by the drug companies that is swine flu)






 Thats why i hold BDM 



yes that was a paid presentation by a biased holder.............blessem


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## noirua (1 January 2011)

Swine Flu is spreading in the UK. 39 people have died, 9 last week, and 738 people are in critical care. The number of flu cases doubled last week.
Many people from the UK are holidaying in Australia, and if you have not had an influenza jab try to avoid them.
The flu particularly attacks younger people with the under fives most at risk.


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## So_Cynical (25 April 2013)

Time for another Flu pandemic panic?

Taiwan Reports First Case of H7N9 Avian Flu

This is the latest Bird flu mutation and is reported by some agency's to be the first human to human transmission, this flu has already killed 22 people in China from 108 infections.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130424-704172.html

http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...preads-to-taiwan/story-fneuzlbd-1226629030773

http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/taiwan-confirms-first-imported-case-of.html

Time to go surgical face mask shopping?


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## sydboy007 (25 April 2013)

Could be the black swan event to take down global trade.

I do fear how the world will cope with the next Influenza pandemic.  Economies are so interdependent these days, it doesn't take much disruption to international trade to have serious impacts.

Lets hope this new strain doesn't pick up any of the tricks the spanish flu had.


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## MrBurns (25 April 2013)

sydboy007 said:


> Could be the black swan event to take down global trade.
> 
> I do fear how the world will cope with the next Influenza pandemic.  Economies are so interdependent these days, it doesn't take much disruption to international trade to have serious impacts.
> 
> Lets hope this new strain doesn't pick up any of the tricks the spanish flu had.




Avoid airports and gear up for buying opportunities


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## sydboy007 (25 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Avoid airports and gear up for buying opportunities




I did the opposite during SARS.

Never had such cheap travel and hotel deals.

Was weird walking past infrared scanners everywhere, but with half empty flights airports were a breeze to navigate.

Definitely wont be travelling if this bloody virus decides to learn how to do human to human transmission easily.

We might have to start watching some doomsday prepper vids to see what we need to stock up on .


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## CanOz (25 April 2013)

From the WHO...

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_04_23/en/index.html



> WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied.
> 
> At the invitation of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China, WHO has convened a team of experts who will visit areas affected by avian influenza A(H7N9) in China in order to provide recommendations on the prevention and control of the disease.




CanOz


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