# ASX 200 prediction



## beemer (8 July 2018)

Hi Everyone, anyone got an opinion, analysis for the asx 200 tommorrow?


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## greggles (8 July 2018)

I predict it will close at 6,315.


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## Darc Knight (8 July 2018)

greggles said:


> I predict it will close at 6,315.




Lol

I'll meet your 6315 and raise you another 10 - 6325!


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## beemer (8 July 2018)

i really hope you to are wrong, or im going to be wiped out lol.


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## greggles (8 July 2018)

beemer said:


> i really hope you to are wrong, or im going to be wiped out lol.



You got a big bet on?


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## beemer (8 July 2018)

4 shorts, it kept getting knocked back around 6195 for last couple weeks so I was expecting a downward retrace soon. Fridays rally up left me hanging on by the skin of my teeth.


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## CanOz (8 July 2018)

I reckon it will open around 6270, but watch the es open for clues. It should close the gap by days end though.


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## greggles (8 July 2018)

beemer said:


> 4 shorts, it kept getting knocked back around 6195 for last couple weeks so I was expecting a downward retrace soon. Fridays rally up left me hanging on by the skin of my teeth.



I've got no dog in this hunt, but the US market did rally Friday so a modest rise is probably on the cards. You never know though. Anything can happen and probably will.


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## gaius (9 July 2018)

I say 6400. Trade war came and gone, nothing here to slow the market now.


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## Darc Knight (9 July 2018)

gaius said:


> I say 6400. Trade war came and gone, nothing here to slow the market now.




I was thinking about this last night. What about this friction between Nth Korea and Trump Admin. Little bearing on Market you think?


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## gaius (9 July 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I was thinking about this last night. What about this friction between Nth Korea and Trump Admin. Little bearing on Market you think?




I say there's nothing new about North Korea and Trump, everyone expected this.


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## gaius (9 July 2018)

beemer said:


> i really hope you to are wrong, or im going to be wiped out lol.




I'm sorry, but your stop loss is going to be contributing to the rise.


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## cutz (9 July 2018)

beemer said:


> Hi Everyone, anyone got an opinion, analysis for the asx 200 tommorrow?




Poor auction results over the weekend will weight down the banks and the ASX 200 index.


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## gaius (9 July 2018)

Only added 10~ points, how disappointing. But hey, what's the hurry? There wouldn't be any significant fall and there is always tomorrow.


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## Darc Knight (9 July 2018)

You still with us @beemer ?

Market kept rising today. Should continue tomorrow unless something changes???


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## beemer (9 July 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> You still with us @beemer ?
> 
> Market kept rising today. Should continue tomorrow unless something changes???



Yeh, i got cleaned out this morning, 15 grand ughhhhhh


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## Darc Knight (10 July 2018)

beemer said:


> Yeh, i got cleaned out this morning, 15 grand ughhhhhh




Sorry to hear   Hopefully you can make it up at some stage.


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## cutz (12 July 2018)

Shame,

Only had to hold out for two extra days … it appears the slide is underway !


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## sasch (12 July 2018)

cutz said:


> Shame,
> 
> Only had to hold out for two extra days … it appears the slide is underway !



Hi Beemer,

You did the right thing cutting your losses. You had your stop loss and you stuck to it.
If you had held on for a few more days you would have rewarded a bad trade precedent and set yourself up for a catastrophic account draw down at some future time.

Personally, I think the asx 200 chart looks very bullish at the current time and you would be swimming against momentum trying to short it. A base seems to be forming at around 6000, and unless ~5940 is broken the direction seems to be up. Instead, a good option, could be loading up long on decent pullbacks.

The obvious play is shorting at this point, as historically this is a major resistance level, however, once this level is strongly broken through, who knows how far it can go up?

I remember when the Dow Jones was sitting at around 12000-13000 points for quite a while, and many market pundits were stating the market was overpriced and it was going to go down!


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## RIP1 (19 July 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I was thinking about this last night. What about this friction between Nth Korea and Trump Admin. Little bearing on Market you think?



Trade with North Korea = Zero so short of A Bombs there is no Down side to failure and only upside if there is a win (more than zero trade). And even a win is unimportant as the entire economy of N Korea = 2/5th of F.. all


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## Darc Knight (19 July 2018)

RIP1 said:


> Trade with North Korea = Zero so short of A Bombs there is no Down side to failure and only upside if there is a win (more than zero trade). And even a win is unimportant as the entire economy of N Korea = 2/5th of F.. all




Bit short sighted. If Kim lobs a bomb into Seoul or the threat of bombs flying around becomes real, the Markets will certainly react.


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## barney (19 July 2018)

sasch said:


> Hi Beemer,
> 
> You did the right thing cutting your losses. You had your stop loss and you stuck to it.
> *If you had held on for a few more days you would have rewarded a bad trade precedent and set yourself up for a catastrophic account draw down at some future time*.




That's (the bold bit) is actually very good advice @sasch  … sorry about the loss @beemer … it happens … it sucks … it teaches … keep on plugging


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## MarketMatters (14 August 2018)

Heading into a rising wedge is going to dictate the move for the ASX200 before long. Bearish moves.


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## IFocus (8 October 2018)

Anyone notice this close below support today?


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## Triple B (8 October 2018)

yes . was just looking myself . there is a 200ma just below todays candle . interesting  time .
could this be the shake-out before the breakout? or the start of  a bear run . will be screening for short positions just in case!


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 October 2018)

IFocus said:


> Anyone notice this close below support today?
> 
> View attachment 89653




+1 +1


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 October 2018)

Agree.


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## IFocus (9 October 2018)

Impulse down continues 5980 ish for next support?


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## MarketMatters (9 October 2018)

Will be selectively buying in the 5900's


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## IFocus (9 October 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> Will be selectively buying in the 5900's




I was thinking the same in a small way any areas that you think are will be attractive?


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

If Labor get in I can see it testing 5,500 again, mainly due to banks, financials and housing related industries.


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## Triple B (10 October 2018)

If it goes below 6000 and does not jump back above quickly Im short everything!!


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## MarketMatters (10 October 2018)

IFocus said:


> I was thinking the same in a small way any areas that you think are will be attractive?



Yes this is the first area of support. Break here then we are off again lower. A rebound and cautiously bearish until we clear 6230 (22 trading day range ceiling). Stay with quality companies and away from high growth, high PE at present.


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## tech/a (10 October 2018)

From my Eyeballed measured moves
and analysis I feel this will likely RANGE between
5740 ish to 6370 ish---Stagnant.


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## MarketMatters (11 October 2018)

Well if you've been waiting for an entry like we have you'll be welcoming the US sell off overnight!


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## IFocus (11 October 2018)

Hmm that was a fair whack now to see if its holds inside of Techs range.


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## MarketMatters (12 October 2018)

You will be needing to update that chart today 
Let's hope we bounce off the 5650 level.


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## IFocus (12 October 2018)

Bit of a reversal candle with volume buying, going up Monday or just a fake out pause?


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## MarketMatters (12 October 2018)

Technical traders in US will provide some guidance tonight if they step up to support. DOW has triggered various levels of support so will be interesting.


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## IFocus (15 October 2018)

Did not close on the low but volume showing  buyers at this point not committing ( I am in that bunch) however maybe seeing the bottom of this range for a breather.....maybe?


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## Darc Knight (23 October 2018)

ASX200 down another 1.05% today and 5.8% for October so far.


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## IFocus (23 October 2018)

Another plunge? If so 5600 could be a target area might have to make a plan when to buy some BBOZ to hedge the Superfund.

Just to add the banks looking set to head south again


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## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

The banks have a ways to go yet, there is no way they will be making the profits they were, so therefore money will get tight interest rates up, ASX down. IMO
Add to that, the negative gearing and CGT changes, housing and building sector slowdown.
Where the ASX ends up will be anyones guess, mine is 5250-5500 range.
Hopefully Morrison just decides he may as well call an election.


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## Darc Knight (23 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Where the ASX ends up will be anyones guess, mine is 5250-5500 range.




Strewth Homer, that bad? I guess we missed the GFC cleanout so we are due.


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## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Strewth Homer, that bad? I guess we missed the GFC cleanout so we are due.



IMO there is a lot of truth in that statement, we have had a flat lining since the resources boom, add to that the contraction in manufacturing and the increase in power costs it isn't good.
When labor take Government, it will line up somewhat with the fall out from the Banking Royal Commission, therefore not only will the monetary system tighten, but the property investors should dry up.
There is also a call to curb population growth in Sydney/Melbourne, which should exacerbate the problem. 
Housing and related industries has carried the Australian economy for the last 4 years, but if it falls over there doesn't appear to be much to fill the gap IMO.
There is a big push in W.A to get a lithium plant up and running, but you are only talking a small workforce, mining is taking off but nothing like the last boom.
So another of those recessions we have to have looks imminent, IMO, probably soon after Labor get in, that's why I think bring it on the sooner we start the sooner we finish.


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## Darc Knight (24 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> IMO there is a lot of truth in that statement, we have had a flat lining since the resources boom, add to that the contraction in manufacturing and the increase in power costs it isn't good.
> When labor take Government, it will line up somewhat with the fall out from the Banking Royal Commission, therefore not only will the monetary system tighten, but the property investors should dry up.
> There is also a call to curb population growth in Sydney/Melbourne, which should exacerbate the problem.
> Housing and related industries has carried the Australian economy for the last 4 years, but if it falls over there doesn't appear to be much to fill the gap IMO.
> ...




The Perfect Storm perhaps?


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## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> The Perfect Storm perhaps?




Well when you see how worried the regulators are, with regard lending for housing, it tells you they are crapping themselves. You just have to join the dots. IMO

https://thewest.com.au/business/hou...d-loan-curbs-based-on-postcodes-ng-b88999665z

Australia definitely is due a reset, everyone is maxed out and wants more.
The only growth sector is fast food and coffee and that won't prop up the ASX.
Like you say "the perfect storm". IMO


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## MarketMatters (24 October 2018)

Curbing lending on postcodes is nothing new. Banks have done this for quite some time to moderate risk in lending (surprisingly!). 
Being the only country to last as long as we have recession free is possibly not a great banner to be flying high. Karma!


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## Darc Knight (24 October 2018)

ASX 200 down for the fourth day in a row - .25 of a percent today.
5829!


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## IFocus (24 October 2018)

A few more buyers around high volume narrow bar day will it hold?


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## Darc Knight (25 October 2018)

Down 2.8% to 5664 today. As someone else said, down 10% since August.


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## Darc Knight (26 October 2018)

5750 today I'll go, on the back of the Dow's gains.


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## IFocus (26 October 2018)

Should see some sort of bounce consolidation soon not so sure its a bottom


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## MarketMatters (26 October 2018)

S&P500 only a few % away from February lows. Possible bounce from here? Dow has a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 24965. Break that and further declines follow. Still trend is your friend at present and on a monthly level would need to break 23995.


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## MarketMatters (26 October 2018)

Don't forget the margin loan holders who may be called up during these times providing false levels.


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## kid hustlr (26 October 2018)

Thinking the ASX SPI is worth a long punt here if you were looking for it.

Stop at today's low looking for a short cover.

The fut's has had a go at new lows and can't seem to drive any further. A short term bounce might be on the cards.


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## kid hustlr (26 October 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Thinking the ASX SPI is worth a long punt here if you were looking for it.
> 
> Stop at today's low looking for a short cover.
> 
> The fut's has had a go at new lows and can't seem to drive any further. A short term bounce might be on the cards.


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## tech/a (26 October 2018)

tech/a said:


> From my Eyeballed measured moves
> and analysis I feel this will likely RANGE between
> 5740 ish to 6370 ish---Stagnant.




This was the XAO
I think we have found the bottom of the range.


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## IFocus (26 October 2018)

tech/a said:


> This was the XAO
> I think we have found the bottom of the range.




Recon your right the weekly show support area and confluence with Fib extension


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## MarketMatters (26 October 2018)

Looks a good start


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## sptrawler (27 October 2018)

I wouldn't bet on this being the bottom.
Time will tell.


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## MarketMatters (27 October 2018)

We are very close to finding out. A close on the DOW below 24579 will likely warn of a CRASH. 

Be prepared either way but the sooner these elections come and go the better! Seriously fake bombs isn't going to change the vote!


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## Darc Knight (29 October 2018)

You guys are better at looking forward than I am, so:

October, worst month since GFC.
ASX200 down 8.7% for October. Down 6.6% ytd.
11% below August peak.

ASX200 delivered 12.4% post GFC (up to August).
ASX200 20year return is 8.5%, 9.1% before this last dive.
Dividends 4.5% on average


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## Darc Knight (29 October 2018)

Bargain hunters pushing the ASX200 up 1.1% today.


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## Darc Knight (1 November 2018)

ASX200 continues to inch it's way up. Surely it can't keep going too long. We're not going to get another bull market so better it crashes and we start again I reckon.


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## sptrawler (1 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> ASX200 continues to inch it's way up. Surely it can't keep going too long. We're not going to get another bull market so better it crashes and we start again I reckon.




In the scheme of things, our market isn't overpriced.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/statistics

With the Dow bouncing up and down, we are treading water, if the Dow tanks we will follow.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

It all becomes a bit self fulfilling, if people get scared they head for the doors, when the stampede starts the fun begins.
But on a P/E basis, everything isn't doom and gloom, it is when the masses get scared and stop spending, the problems start. 
Just my thoughts.


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## MarketMatters (2 November 2018)

Really not seeing any recession in the US until late 2019/20 as one trigger (interest rates being applied too fast and too late). Europe could definitely be a cause for one with the region showing instability in Germany (politically) and Italy (debt) and then the unknown outcomes of Brexit. Overall we are a small piece of the world puzzle but I agree with sptrawler - we are not overpriced, yet this means nothing at this stage as the money flows chase growth into US (growing economy) which involves selling stagnating economies like parts of the Euro and Oz.


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## Darc Knight (3 November 2018)

I hear finance commentators in the Media regularly say they've gotten out of the Aus share market. Add to that the length of time since we've had a recession and subsequent clean out, you'd think we're due. The U.S. less likely, particularly as Trump has hitched his wagon to being a good economic manager, and they had the GFC we didn't.


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## Darc Knight (3 November 2018)

Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:

_"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”

https://wilsonassetmanagement.com.a...-labors-dividend-plan-will-worsen-correction/
_
Seems a bit dramatic.


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## willy1111 (3 November 2018)

Have seen a couple of different t/a's suggesting Oz index has a bounce back up to 6000 then another sell off to around 5400/5300 possibly 4500 taking 6 mths to a year...from there they think the next leg up will break all time highs.


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## Skate (3 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:
> 
> _"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”
> 
> ...




The article reflects current thinking..

_*"Seems a bit dramatic"*_ the economy will worsen if Labor gets back in. (IMHO)

Skate.


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## Darc Knight (3 November 2018)

I can understand the thinking that a Labor Gov might worsen things, but drawing the link between changes to the Div Imp system and a Recession seems far fetched.
Spending and Production aren't likely to plummet due to Div Imp changes Ida thought.


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## Ann (3 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:
> 
> _"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”
> 
> ...




I have a bit of time for Geoff Wilson and have spoken to and heard him speak on a few occassions. Back in '06 (I think?), he convinced me there was going to be an almighty crash on its way. If Geoff speaks, I listen.


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## PZ99 (7 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:
> 
> _"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”
> 
> ...



Seems like a manipulation attempt to attain some cheap stocks to me.

Hell, I'll sprout anti-Labor theories to score a decent dip anytime 

PS, the election results are expected around the same time as the ASX opens today.


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## Darc Knight (7 November 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Seems like a manipulation attempt to attain some cheap stocks to me.
> 
> Hell, I'll sprout anti-Labor theories to score a decent dip anytime
> 
> PS, the election results are expected around the same time as the ASX opens today.




I first heard them saying that this is the start of the next bear market, back when that correction occurred a month ago. Now they've upped the anti to a full blown recession.
I'd prefer it, but I'm skeptical.


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## PZ99 (7 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I first heard them saying that this is the start of the next bear market, back when that correction occurred a month ago. Now they've upped the anti to a full blown recession.
> I'd prefer it, but I'm skeptical.



So am I. I don't know too many investors who can cash in their franking credits so IMO the number of people affected just isn't big enough to break the economy. Most people don't even know what franking credits are.


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## SirRumpole (7 November 2018)

PZ99 said:


> PS, the election results are expected around the same time as the ASX opens today.




So what effect would Democrat control of the HReps have on the Dow do you think (if it happens) ?


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## PZ99 (7 November 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> So what effect would Democrat control of the HReps have on the Dow do you think (if it happens) ?



Very little. But the opposite result against the odds might have had a volatile affect like last time.


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## sptrawler (7 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I can understand the thinking that a Labor Gov might worsen things, but drawing the link between changes to the Div Imp system and a Recession seems far fetched.
> Spending and Production aren't likely to plummet due to Div Imp changes Ida thought.



I would have thought the changes to negative gearing and CGT, would have greater ramifications. The changes to Div Imp, will just reduce the amount of retirees in the market. IMO
Having said that, the changes to CGT, will have an effect on share traders. How much of an effect, will be interesting to see.


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## trading_rookie (7 November 2018)

*I have a bit of time for Geoff Wilson and have spoken to and heard him speak on a few occassions. Back in '06 (I think?), he convinced me there was going to be an almighty crash on its way. If Geoff speaks, I listen*

If Wilson said the almighty crash was gonna happen in July 2007 then I’d listen. It’s common sense what goes up must eventually come down…but telling me exactly when it’s gonna come down…then and only then I’d be impressed.

* we are not overpriced, yet this means nothing at this stage as the money flows chase growth into US (growing economy) which involves selling stagnating economies like parts of the Euro and Oz.*

This article from the AFR 3 days ago has me convinced otherwise. The economic data presented highlights the US economy isn’t growing faster than Oz’s. We are on our way to record a budget surplus, their large tax cuts have grown their budget deficit by a further 17%. Our yr-on-yr GDP growth is at 3.4%, theirs is at 3%. Both countries enjoying low jobless figures

I guess it’s all in the marketing and spiel…


https://www.afr.com/markets/behind-the-decoupling-of-us-and-australian-rates-20181102-h17g7l

Well worth a read


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## Smurf1976 (7 November 2018)

trading_rookie said:


> If Wilson said the almighty crash was gonna happen in July 2007 then I’d listen. It’s common sense what goes up must eventually come down…but telling me exactly when it’s gonna come down…then and only then I’d be impressed.



In May 2002 I read a series of online articles which turned out to be somewhat life changing for me so far as finances and investing are concerned.

They were written by someone who claimed to have no financial qualifications. An American by the name of Richard (can't remember his surname).

Over a series of articles posted on his own website he went into considerable detail and pretty much nailed it in terms of what would later occur. That later occurrence is now commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis.

Mortgages, banks, car manufacturers - he hit the nail on the head about what would happen and named many of the companies that would ultimately go under. The only thing of significance he missed was the US government bailing out GM and Chrysler but apart from that he hit the bulls eye.

He made no attempt to predict the timing apart from pointing out the signs to look for which would be the warning that it was imminent. He was right there too.

Ever since that I've adopted that broad philosophy to my own investments. Don't aim to predict the timing of anything but do understand the "what" and do understand what events are likely to occur first. Then just pay attention to what's happening.

To that end I don't think we've seen the US stock market reach a major top yet in this cycle. No true mass euphoria seemed to be present, there were still those voices of worry. No proper oil shock. The Fed isn't done with tightening indeed they haven't really done much of it. The economy is still growing. And so on. The only real storm going on is a political one that'll probably resolve itself sooner or later. Once that's done, then we can go through the motions and get a proper market top with all the things usually involved with that. When I won't even try to predict.

For the ASX I don't have a prediction beyond noting that the same broad points apply with the added complication that rather a lot of the large cap stocks are in some way affected by politics. Banks, electricity, gas, coal mining, anything associated with the NBN, anyone paying out large franked dividends are all subject to a degree of political influence at present.


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## trading_rookie (7 November 2018)

I think you’re missing my point Smurf.

It’s near impossible to time, yet so easy to predict something will happen in the future.

If Richard with no economic/financial/market experience could see in 2002 what would happen 5 yrs later, then it's nothing short of ridiculous such a big deal is made when economic academics and professionals are credited with a future event they'd be warning for years.


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## willy1111 (7 November 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I would have thought the changes to negative gearing and CGT, would have greater ramifications. The changes to Div Imp, will just reduce the amount of retirees in the market. IMO
> Having said that, the changes to CGT, will have an effect on share traders. How much of an effect, will be interesting to see.




I would have thought changes will have no impact on share traders as they don't get cgt discount anyway, they are treated on revenue account not capital  https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Capi...ng-as-investor-or-share-trading-as-business-/


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## willy1111 (7 November 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> In May 2002 I read a series of online articles which turned out to be somewhat life changing for me so far as finances and investing are concerned.




Some people reading stuff like that, it scares them into pulling their money  out of the market completely...which may have meant missing out on the great bull run of 03 to 07.

I'm curious to hear hw you adjusted your finances and investments if you'd like to share.

Maybe a lot are more careful of leverage after 08, especially margin levels, too much margin can wipe one out.


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## willy1111 (7 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I can understand the thinking that a Labor Gov might worsen things, but drawing the link between changes to the Div Imp system and a Recession seems far fetched.
> Spending and Production aren't likely to plummet due to Div Imp changes Ida thought.




I think maybe it is just one of the many ingredients contributing to a potential of lack of future growth. 

Sydney and Melb prop prices peaked, US interest rates rising pushing up cost of funds to our banks causing them to push up rates, costs out of Royal Commission to banks meaning dividends may be cut or pay out ratios increased.  US bull market 9yrs in, means much closer to the end than the start judging by previous length of bull runs in the past. Maybe we follow the US.


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## trading_rookie (7 November 2018)

willy1111 said:


> I would have thought changes will have no impact on share traders as they don't get cgt discount anyway, they are treated on revenue account not capital




Unless of course said traders have a smsf full of long term securites and property.


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## willy1111 (8 November 2018)

trading_rookie said:


> Unless of course said traders have a smsf full of long term securites and property.




SMSFs pay tax at 15% for assets sold less than 12mths and 10% for over 12 mths. 

So they effectively get a 33% discount, a reduction to 25% would see the long term rate increase from 10% to 11.25%...I wouldn't think that would make much difference to their behavior. 

I haven't heard any mention of CGT changes for smsfs being proposed.


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## trading_rookie (8 November 2018)

> So they effectively get a 33% discount, a reduction to 25% would see the long term rate increase from 10% to 11.25%...I wouldn't think that would make much difference to their behavior




You don’t think a 33% discount now and a possible reduction to only 10% under the ALP wouldn’t make much of a difference to behaviour? I’d like to hear why you think that.



> I haven't heard any mention of CGT changes for smsfs being proposed.




Maybe I’m jumping the gun, but I’m assuming a CGT reduction on shares and property in the real world and a CGT reduction on shares in the super world, will eventually lead to the same applying to property…after all Shorten is no fan of the SMSF.


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## tech/a (8 November 2018)

trading_rookie said:


> Shorten is no fan of the SMSF




He doesn't have to be nor does any politician.

They have their over inflated Govt Pension for life.
*They don't need to live by the rules we all have to*.
Yet we pay for them!
Public servants--cr@p---self serving everyone of them.
Power and control.

It would be completely different if they had to abide by their laws/rules!

*Sorry Rant off topic!*


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## jbocker (8 November 2018)

tech/a said:


> Sorry Rant off topic!




Absolutely, NO need to apologise. But they are ultimately means tested aren't they?


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## tech/a (8 November 2018)

Not that I'm aware of.

They don't even pay tax like we do.
Yet they govern our laws that affect us
on TAX.


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## trading_rookie (8 November 2018)

tech/a said:


> He doesn't have to be nor does any politician.
> 
> They have their over inflated Govt Pension for life.
> *They don't need to live by the rules we all have to*.
> ...




I don’t know if its that simple Duck, after all you have to take a stance on policies you think the majority of the electorate will be in favour of, and there seems to be this overwhelming negative sentiment to anyone who worked hard on a modest salary and sacrificed to own something and then pay their way in retirement and now be viewed similarly to those born with a silver spoon in their hand. I don’t know why, but the ALP always seem to have it in for the middle-classs.

Shorten became an MP in 2007, the less favourable rule applies to him;

*SUPERANNUATION:*

MPs who entered Parliament before the 2004 election are required to pay 11.5 per cent of their salary into superannuation for up to 18 years and pay 5.75 per cent of their salary thereafter. On retirement they benefit from a generous nest egg based on their years of service. They can receive a lump sum or annual pension. Those who became MPs after the 2001 election must wait until age 55 to get the money.


MPs who were elected from the 2004 election onwards have a less generous scheme. The Government contributes 15.4 per cent of their gross salary into a super fund elected by the MP. Their super payout is based on the performance of the fund in the same way as most workers. Salary sacrifice is allowed.

Albanese I’m sure benefited from negative gearing - his last known acquisition in 2016 at $1.175m with rent at a modest $880 a week back then, which was another addition to his portfolio.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/r...t/news-story/e229d9ebb31d72415de84a2ac6db1f5f

Yet had no problem appearing on Q&A a while ago to talk it up as a super-rich tax rout and why it should be eliminated.


----------



## sptrawler (8 November 2018)

trading_rookie said:


> I don’t know if its that simple Duck, after all you have to take a stance on policies you think the majority of the electorate will be in favour of, and there seems to be this overwhelming negative sentiment to anyone who worked hard on a modest salary and sacrificed to own something and then pay their way in retirement and now be viewed similarly to those born with a silver spoon in their hand. I don’t know why, but the ALP always seem to have it in for the middle-classs.
> 
> Shorten became an MP in 2007, the less favourable rule applies to him;
> 
> ...




Unlike the average wage earner, who is probably negative geared, I would expect politicians on their income to be positively geared.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...icians-own-a-staggering-524-properties-2017-4

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/australian-politician-property-ownership-details/8453782


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## willy1111 (8 November 2018)

trading_rookie said:


> You don’t think a 33% discount now and a possible reduction to only 10% under the ALP wouldn’t make much of a difference to behaviour? I’d like to hear why you think that.




Maybe you have misunderstood, 33% is the cgt discount for SMSF's (50% for individuals)...10% is the effective rate of tax for an smsf after the discount.

Example. $100,000 capital gain...in smsf 67% is taxable = $67,000 taxable at 15% = $10,050 tax payable on capital gain...pretty much 10% of the gain.

If they make the cgt discount 25% rather than 33%, $75,000 taxable at 15% = $11,250 tax payable.

Difference is a little over $1,000 tax payable on a $100k gain...ergo I don't think it will impact behaviour in an smsf as you alluded to.


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## trading_rookie (8 November 2018)

*Unlike the average wage earner, who is probably negative geared, I would expect politicians on their income to be positively geared.*

@sptrawler , you’re probably right, but going by the link you provided the smart ones use family members to apply the -ve gearing.
_
Former treasurer Joe Hockey’s wife owned a house she bought for $320,000 in 1997, which her husband used when in town. It sold last year for $1.5 million. During his time in parliament, it’s estimated that Hockey claimed around $184,000 in travel allowances over 18 years to stay there.

*The ATO handed down a ruling saying MPs renting in Canberra from a spouse or family member are allowed to essentially negatively gear the property and claim income tax deductions on a range of costs, including mortgage interest, rates and power, on a second property. Even better, it’s capital gains tax free when sold*._



*Difference is a little over $1,000 tax payable on a $100k gain...ergo I don't think it will impact behaviour in an smsf as you alluded to.*

@willy1111 what if the impact was $14,160? Would that impact investor behavior?

Using the Hockeys investment property as an example, the gain is $1.18m

67% taxable on $1.18m = $790,000 x 15%  = $118,590

75% taxable on $1.18m = $885,000 x 15% = $132.750

The difference then between a 33% and 25% discount is quite substantial considering you have to pay off the mortgage for an investment, which I’m sure you know is more than a regular one. Insurance, up-keep, maintenance, rates, utilities…list goes on.

And that’s just the property, what about compliance, and auditing costs, etc for the SMSF itself?

If you decide to sell the property within the SMSF you’ll be $14,600 worse off. That’s a lot of money, I’m sure you’ll agree.


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## willy1111 (8 November 2018)

trading_rookie said:


> If you decide to sell the property within the SMSF you’ll be $14,600 worse off. That’s a lot of money, I’m sure you’ll agree.




In isolation...yes...but

To realise a one off $1.2M gain...it is pocket change...hence I don't think it would impact behaviour within an smsf one bit.

The more likely action is that they wait until the smsf is in pension phase and possibly pay $0 tax.

The proposed change to the CGT will have much bigger impact on investments in personal name. The $1.2m gain, currently only $600k gets taxed at marginal rate, under Labours proposal $900k would be taxed at marginal rate = $141k more in tax...thats where the big difference is!

But people will still invest in property and shares as the historical total returns are better than cash/fixed intetest.

We just pay more tax...you don't see wage earners knocking back pay increases as they have to pay more tax...although you do see some knocking back overtime.

Don't get me wrong...I'm completely against increasing taxes. I don't want to give the muppets in Canberra anymore dollars than I legally have to to misuse and misspend.


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## MarketMatters (8 November 2018)

Yes the difference between 33% and 25% is substantial however it needs to be relevant to the taxed entity. Apply different individual MTR and your outcome is 'substantially' different. 

Low income earner may benefit by holding property in their own name vs superannuation on a CGT triggered event;

High income earner on top MTR will benefit by the lower rate imposed by the superannuation system on a CGT triggered event.

Nil income earner (Pension phase in superannuation) benefits by having no taxable income assessed on any CGT event. WINNER.

Depends on which camp you fall into. However more times than not most people don't care of the net effect as they embrace the magnitude of how much they made! Seriously how many people do you hear gloat I made a NET XX% return?


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## IFocus (9 November 2018)

I remember listening years ago to a successful property investor and he hammered the point that any investment had to stand on its own legs neg gearing was just an added benefit never the reason to invest.

I am a fence sitter on neg gearing plenty of reasons to scrap and it will have to go one day but easy to mess up if done badly.


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## Darc Knight (9 November 2018)

IFocus said:


> I remember listening years ago to a successful property investor and he hammered the point that any investment had to stand on its own legs neg gearing was just an added benefit never the reason to invest.
> 
> I am a fence sitter on neg gearing plenty of reasons to scrap and it will have to go one day but easy to mess up if done badly.




One of Noel Whittaker's "Golden Rules of Wealth" is never invest for tax reasons: " _Always judge an investment on its  merits– any tax benefits should be  regarded as the cream on the cake."

https://www.noelwhittaker.com.au/resources/free-downloads/the-20-commandments-of-wealth/_


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## luutzu (9 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> One of Noel Whittaker's "Golden Rules of Wealth" is never invest for tax reasons: " _Always judge an investment on its  merits– any tax benefits should be  regarded as the cream on the cake."
> 
> https://www.noelwhittaker.com.au/resources/free-downloads/the-20-commandments-of-wealth/_





I think that that's generally is true. Way too many people taking on investment [properties, say] for the tax benefit, hoping to gain on the capital gains later. 

That might work out well enough during good/normal economic growth with your stable/high income. When the tide turn, lost that job or the law changes, investment that doesn't pay for itself tend not to end well.

BUT I've read about Rupert Murdoch and he built his empire on crap load of debt, tax benefits etc.

His strategy, and it's not always about the tax gain, it's also about political power and influence... but what he does over and over is to buy businesses that's making a loss, use that loss to offset against his other profitable businesses. Hence, paying little to no tax while expanding the empire. 

Came close to going broke a few times... but then that's where political influence comes to the rescue.


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## SirRumpole (9 November 2018)

luutzu said:


> BUT I've read about Rupert Murdoch and he built his empire on crap load of debt, tax benefits etc.




Same with Alan Bond. Did what he did on other people's money and had the gift of the gab to persuade people to part with their cash.


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## IFocus (13 November 2018)

So a reverse head and shoulder at 5800 ish or impulse lower to test 5660?


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## IFocus (13 November 2018)

On the weekly not quite as dramatic 5660 is a good chance IMHO


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## sptrawler (13 November 2018)

IFocus said:


> I remember listening years ago to a successful property investor and he hammered the point that any investment had to stand on its own legs neg gearing was just an added benefit never the reason to invest.
> 
> I am a fence sitter on neg gearing plenty of reasons to scrap and it will have to go one day but easy to mess up if done badly.




I'm with you on that, I remember discussing it at work one time a lot of the guys were saying interest only, I said negative gearing only halves your loses it is still a loss.
When I bought property they were positive geared, or I didn't bother, you may lose out on some gains but you seldom cop a loss.


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## sptrawler (13 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> One of Noel Whittaker's "Golden Rules of Wealth" is never invest for tax reasons: " _Always judge an investment on its  merits– any tax benefits should be  regarded as the cream on the cake."_




I think the same ideology should now be applied to super.


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## trading_rookie (14 November 2018)

@willy1111



> The more likely action is that they wait until the smsf is in pension phase and possibly pay $0 tax.




Maybe so for baby boomers, but Gen Xers still has along way to go to retirement age, a lot can happen economically in the next couple of decades.



> The proposed change to the CGT will have much bigger impact on investments in personal name. The $1.2m gain, currently only $600k gets taxed at marginal rate, under Labours proposal $900k would be taxed at marginal rate = $141k more in tax...thats where the big difference is!



Agree 100%



> We just pay more tax...you don't see wage earners knocking back pay increases as they have to pay more tax...although you do see some knocking back overtime.



Maybe the greedy and those not in the know…until they visit their accountant at the EOFY. Those in the know, know a pay rise of $2K could cost them more than $2K when tax time comes around.

Coincidentlly, I was speaking with a friend yesterday who told me about his work situation and how he was due a lot in back pay and was getting a pay rise…wasn’t excited one bit as he knew he would be forking out more in tax.


@MarketMatters



> However more times than not most people don't care of the net effect as they embrace the magnitude of how much they made! Seriously how many people do you hear gloat I made a NET XX% return?




A lot actually...can't say I've ever heard anyone who made a considerable capital gain on a property sale for example deduct all fees, expenses, and CGT while mentally working out their profit.

Hell, even businesses like to quote EBITA


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## MarketMatters (20 November 2018)

IFocus said:


> On the weekly not quite as dramatic 5660 is a good chance IMHO
> 
> View attachment 90278




We are favouring a bounce off 5600 leading into Christmas.


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## IFocus (20 November 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> We are favouring a bounce off 5600 leading into Christmas.




Been waiting to see if the Xmas rally will line up 

Question for Porper is that a 5 wave down and now a possible ABC?


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## MarketMatters (20 November 2018)




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## Porper (20 November 2018)

IFocus said:


> Been waiting to see if the Xmas rally will line up
> 
> Question for Porper is that a 5 wave down and now a possible ABC?
> 
> ...




This is the count I have been working with but it isn't textbook.

It could be a 5 wave leg down to today's low as IFOCUS points out but again not textbook as wave-4 is strong which isn't typical. Also it's a truncated wave 5 as it ends above wave-3 low. This is unusual as well. My guess is some churn then down again.


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## sptrawler (20 November 2018)

It should be a good opportunity for all those young people, who couldn't afford a house in the boom, to take a chance a put their money into the market.
I wonder if after this market and housing shake out, everyone will be still blaming the 'baby boomers' for the younger generation having no opportunity?
Not wanting to sound bitter, but a lot of the 'baby boomers' will loose a lot of their super, which they didn't have a lot of to start with.
Those who are working just ride through this down period, whereas those living on super have minimum draw downs and have to take money out whether they want to or not.
If they don't have the money in cash, they are forced to sell some of their shares, even though they are at ridiculous lows.
Labors plan to cut the franking credit income, will exacerbate this problem and have a reverse compounding effect.
Those SMSF retirees will be on the pension in no time.

OOPs sorry, I just saw the thread heading, I think we still have a few hundred points to go down yet.
Porper's  chart just made me a melancholy.


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## tinhat (20 November 2018)

Right now we are back at the support line that held up during late 2017. If the XAO doesn't hold from here the next support might be above 5600 and I would have a guess that if we got there it would be on the back of the big 4 banks. After that. Trouble.


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## sptrawler (21 November 2018)

My guess is if the all ords takes a tumble, we will be at 5250 in no time.
It may actually coincide with the Federal election. IMO


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## IFocus (21 November 2018)

Thanks Porper/MM for the counts as always we wait for confirmation ........or more questions


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## MarketMatters (21 November 2018)

Agree


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## PZ99 (22 November 2018)

Green shoots everywhere at the moment... ASX futures up 1%


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## IFocus (22 November 2018)

Buyers still around should get a bounce from here


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## notting (22 November 2018)

China exposed stocks have been showing a lot of strength and gains in the last few days.
Would not be surprised to see some kind of fake deal announced with the US soon.
It's always a lie and a way to cheat when China pretends to make a deal, but the market never seems to learn and will go nuts.


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## IFocus (22 November 2018)

notting said:


> China exposed stocks have been showing a lot of strength and gains in the last few days.
> Would not be surprised to see some kind of fake deal announced with the US soon.
> It's always a lie and a way to cheat when China pretends to make a deal, but the market never seems to learn and will go nuts.





Would be nice if it goes nuts to Xmas 

Brought a little bit of ANZ / WES this morning


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## lenny (23 November 2018)

This leg down on the XJO has been approx. -11% which is within the range of a correction, but the worrying thing is how strong and impulsive the selling has been and how weak the buying has been with distribution.

 Another low volume bounce would be a worry.


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## greggles (23 November 2018)

If support at 5,600 fails it looks like the next stop is 5,200. The geopolitical situation is still pretty tense at the moment. China and the USA at war over tariffs, Saudi Arabia under fire over Jamal Khashoggi's murder. I'm expecting gold to remain firm while equities weaken in December if circumstances do not improve.


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## Logique (23 November 2018)

A near term upward pivot is possible, but the XJO is a technical Bear, so it's a high risk play


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## MarketMatters (23 November 2018)

notting said:


> China exposed stocks have been showing a lot of strength and gains in the last few days.
> Would not be surprised to see some kind of fake deal announced with the US soon.
> It's always a lie and a way to cheat when China pretends to make a deal, but the market never seems to learn and will go nuts.




Don't count your chickens just yet. Chinese PMI conditions are barely sitting above 50 which is a key trigger for contraction. Next results will be delivered 30 Nov though looking at the chart below does spell some weakness - Macq bank China Business Cycle Indicator which is the leading indicator. This article provides further perspective https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2018/11/22/china-s-warning/


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## IFocus (23 November 2018)

Friday, sellers had an RDO, buyers unconvincing volume.

A mob I know that sell into China have just cut back production by 25% which surprised me maybe not looking at MM's post above.


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## Darc Knight (29 November 2018)

S&P up 2.3℅ overnight. ASX to soar today?


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## Knobby22 (29 November 2018)

IFocus said:


> Friday, sellers had an RDO, buyers unconvincing volume.
> 
> A mob I know that sell into China have just cut back production by 25% which surprised me maybe not looking at MM's post above.
> 
> ...



Double bottom?


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## mcgrath111 (29 November 2018)

All I see is a santa rally. 
I'm hoping for a short term rally, and getting behind BBOZ and BBUS. ASX is overvalued and due for a correction. 
Looking forward to a trade war and the banks to sink. 


All hail the bears!


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## Darc Knight (29 November 2018)

mcgrath111 said:


> All I see is a santa rally.
> I'm hoping for a short term rally, and getting behind BBOZ and BBUS. ASX is overvalued and due for a correction.
> Looking forward to a trade war and the banks to sink.
> 
> ...




You still think ASX is overvalued even after this latest correction?


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## mcgrath111 (29 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> You still think ASX is overvalued even after this latest correction?



I think there's more to come. Yet I've been bearish for the last year. Far more to come IMO, just a prediction.


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## Darc Knight (29 November 2018)

mcgrath111 said:


> I think there's more to come. Yet I've been bearish for the last year. Far more to come IMO, just a prediction.




That concurs with what Wilson Asset Management and Chris Richardson from Access Economics thinks too.

Chris Richardson thinks Australia is headed for some VERY tough times eventually and we haven't been heeding the warnings.


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## Darc Knight (4 December 2018)

Any of you smarter folk betting on the ASX? On even days it sinks, on odd days it rises, or is it the other way around. Feeling sea sick just watching the ASX.


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## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Any of you smarter folk betting on the ASX? On even days it sinks, on odd days it rises, or is it the other way around. Feeling sea sick just watching the ASX.



There is always opportunity, it is just pointless IMO, jumping in when you feel the bottom hasn't been found.
Good traders will be having a field day.


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## IFocus (5 December 2018)

Its a choppy old climb establishing a small trend up not a great sign at these levels and the main down trend is still well and truly in play.

Anyone's guess for a Xmas rally  they don't always come.


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## Darc Knight (5 December 2018)

Dow down 3.1℅. S&P 500 down 3.2%.

Any predictions other than blood?


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## IFocus (5 December 2018)

Throw in plague and pestilence today


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## PZ99 (5 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Dow down 3.1℅. S&P 500 down 3.2%.
> 
> Any predictions other than blood?



Might touch below 5600 by noon - no idea after that.

It's tempting to sell on open and buy back later but if it starts low and climbs up you're buggered.


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## IFocus (5 December 2018)

On the big down days I used to pick a stock that looked weak and place a position below the break often they wouldn't fall on the open and you would get filled also often the price would gap over and I would miss the train, chasing index's or futures is a sure way to lose money IMHO.


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## PZ99 (5 December 2018)

I sold my NAB on open and got them back for $23.90 + picked up BOQ as the worst dropper. 

A bit of pocket money


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## MrChow (7 December 2018)

I'm personally high conviction on +10% by March of 6200.

Every short term risk factor eventually still leads to testing new highs if there isn't an actual economic problem and most of the gains in the market are made over our Summer-Autumn.


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## IFocus (10 December 2018)

Close down into another range big day out see if we get follow through this week 

Below is the ETF Bear for those that prefer an up trend


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## PZ99 (11 December 2018)

I'm going for a bear start to the day and an upside finish 

@IFocus - I know zip about charting but are we seeing a triple bottom there? Cheers.


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## Darc Knight (11 December 2018)

Agreed, back in Black today (gains).


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## bigdog (11 December 2018)

*THE Australian share market slumped to a two-year low yesterday, weighed down by the major banks as hopes for a trade resolution between the US and China dissipated.*


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## IFocus (11 December 2018)

PZ99 said:


> @IFocus - I know zip about charting but are we seeing a triple bottom there? Cheers.




In a word....no 

There was a small buyers zone around 5640 but the close below yesterday took care of that.

Double or triple bottoms usually take a while to form and often you see impulsive buying from the base.


Have high lighted the ideal entry points for Bear note the buy zone in and around the blue MA


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## gartley (11 December 2018)

bigdog said:


> *THE Australian share market slumped to a two-year low yesterday, weighed down by the major banks as hopes for a trade resolution between the US and China dissipated.*




Interesting how the media is always looking for a reason as to why the market moved))  The forces at play in the markets are internal + dynamic and feed upon themselves.  Human emotions in the form of hope fear and greed are what really propel the markets.. not the reasons the the news gives.
All we can do is decide if there is a trend in place and look for the best point to position ourselves within the trend and totally ignore the news))


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## PZ99 (12 December 2018)

We were on track for a half decent day but that's now gone down the swanny.




https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...umps-government-shutdown-threat-idUSKBN1OA1CB

Thanks Mr Trump for making the S-Bend our best friend


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## IFocus (14 December 2018)

I have drawn in the wedge Cam raised over on the XAO thread it looks the part as far as decending wedges go but I don't think it fits with the legs down for a possible EW count (Porper?) and looking at the banks its kinda looking like a new low coming up.

Be-aware wedges can break out in the same direction.

On the flip side a decent consolidation is due plus the two days before yesterday saw the buyers turn up.

My own bias based on gut, evidence based rumour, reverse psychology, rolling the dice....three times is that I think we are headed lower, no Xmas rally or a very minor one.


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## MrChow (19 December 2018)

At the moment I believe there's a mismatch between narrative and fundamentals.

US Initial Jobless Claims recorded it's 2nd lowest reading in 50 years last week.

The 10 year - 3 Month Yield Curve is still positive by 45 basis points.

Both are significant leading indicators that suggest to me this fall is not going to be the one that is sustained and intensified.


----------



## Cam019 (20 December 2018)

Alright, may as well put a prediction here.

I'm cautiously bullish of the indexes (XJO, XAO). Falling wedge lining up with a major support area. MACD also offering bullish divergence and TMF holding above the zero line. Short to intermediate term, I'm calling a reversal back to 5800-5950 for the XJO.


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## willy1111 (20 December 2018)

This is a monthly chart of the All Ords over the past 30 odd years.  It is quite common to see 20%+ high to low declines on a regular basis - there has been 10 in the last 30 years with 2 of them over 50% - as such I wouldn't be surprised to see the All Ords get down to 5200 ish - that would be about a 20% decline from the most recent high of about 6500.


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## sptrawler (20 December 2018)

As I said in November, my guess is 5250, we could always run a sweep. lol

If the Trump sentiment and press stays negative, if the U.S keeps raising interest rates, if Labor stay with the negative gearing, CGT and franking credits platform, the only way is down.IMO

There is nothing on the horizon than can improve the negative sentiment, as Willy1111 said 20% falls are pretty common not once in a lifetime events, despite the press saying everything is.

The only possible scenario that could save the ASX, is if the Libs come up with a keen and cunning plan, but I think Baldrick has a better chance of that.


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## MrChow (20 December 2018)

So after my indicators suggested this current -15% decline is occuring slighty too early I looked back at the XAO to see if there was any precedent:

In 2001 the XAO lost and regained -17% in 2 months, 5 months before reaching the DotCom Peak
In 2007 the XAO lost and regained -13% in 6 months, 2 months before reaching the GFC Peak


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## Smurf1976 (20 December 2018)

MrChow said:


> So after my indicators suggested this current -15% decline is occuring slighty too early I looked back at the XAO to see if there was any precedent:



Noted that both of those examples were major tops, not just minor ones.

My "big picture" view that I've mentioned in various threads is that we're "somewhere in the vicinity of a major top". That doesn't mean the actual top is in, although it could be, but we're somewhere in the vicinity of it in terms of long term cycles (eg the present up swing since the GFC).

There will be another rally, we could even see a new high in the US markets in particular, but if you're taking a long term approach that's an opportunity to sell in my view.


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## InsvestoBoy (21 December 2018)

MrChow said:


> US Initial Jobless Claims recorded it's 2nd lowest reading in 50 years last week.




Right. A cyclical peak. How much lower can it go before wage growth has to jump higher and subsequently start to crush profit margins?

Very low unemployment is an end of cycle indicator.



> The 10 year - 3 Month Yield Curve is still positive by 45 basis points.




The curve does not need to invert and nor does inversion guarantee anything.

The flatness is bad enough.

Especially with this level of debt in the economy.



> Both are significant leading indicators that suggest to me this fall is not going to be the one that is sustained and intensified.




The stock market is not the economy. You're thinking of the bond and credit markets.


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## sptrawler (21 December 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> The stock market is not the economy. You're thinking of the bond and credit markets.




Never has a truer word been said.IMO
The stock market is more an indicator, of investor sentiment. Just my opinion.
People are buying and selling, on expectation, that is untill the direction is obvious.


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## lenny (21 December 2018)

*“The stock market and economy are two different things.”*
— Milton Friedman


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## IFocus (22 December 2018)

Santa bypassed the markets this year 15% ish drop so far in the run down could the Trump factor be the issue among others creating uncertainty who knows.

Where to from here?

Still early days for a real bear market and we are over due a proper consolidation from where we will get a better idea of further market direction.

In terms of levels 5200 is likely next stop and we need to be below 4800 to be looking at a GFC run down, any thing below  the lows of Feb 2016 (4760 ish) would be a cause for concern.

Note Cams wedge has broken to the down side will be interesting to see if price re-enters the wedge pattern or the wedge base forms resistance.


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## MrChow (22 December 2018)

We were 9 points off on Dec 3 from having 6 weekly losses in a row.


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## Darc Knight (27 December 2018)

Courtesy of Bigdogs post:
 "_The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5 percent or 1,086 points to 22,878. It was the Dow’s biggest one-day point gain ever.

The benchmark S&P 500 gained 5 percent or 116 points to 2,467. Nasdaq rose 5.8 percent or 361 points to 6,554."_

Things are looking up this morning?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (27 December 2018)

and will the sick ASX hold 1.5%?


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## Darc Knight (4 January 2019)

These 1.5% swings gotta be opportunity for some smart souls to make a bundle you'd think.

'S&P and Dow down again. Anyone betting on ASX?


----------



## Nortorious (4 January 2019)

I'm seeing a lot of $$$ head into Gold mining stocks which makes me think a drop is imminent (within a week or two). 

My rationale is the market drops, investors rush to Gold, increasing demand and pushing the price up. As a result, gold miners become more profitable with the precious metal now being worth much more and the share price increases as a result of that knowledge.

Given the smart money appears to have shifted to Gold miners already, I feel it is a matter of time before we get a larger drop.

Whilst I never want the ASX200 to be heading downwards (a buoyant market is much more fun to talk about with others), I think it will be shifting down towards the 5407 level in the coming days and then to towards 5185.

Longer term (this year), we go below 5000.


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## BlindSquirrel (24 October 2019)

this next couple of months or so should be interesting!


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## Dona Ferentes (16 January 2020)

I predict the S&P ASX200 will go either up or down, tomorrow.

That's out of the way; today it passed *7000*. First time. Media are full of it. 

On 07 November, 2017, the ASX 200 crossed the *6000* point mark, and since then: 
- CSL has risen 115.6 per cent, adding 277 points to the index, while 
- BHP has advanced 68 per cent, adding 200 points.

Nearly half the gain from just 2 stocks; doesn't leave that much for contributions from the other 198 index components (actually 200+ because the makeup has changed in the last 3 years)


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## Smurf1976 (16 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Nearly half the gain from just 2 stocks; doesn't leave that much for contributions from the other 198 index components (actually 200+ because the makeup has changed in the last 3 years)



Indeed there's quite a few where you'd have lost significant money holding them over that period.


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (23 May 2022)

Probably should wait till the Morning but unless the China Lockdown expectations grow overnight I'm thinking the XJO to lift tomorrow on the back of a small Rally in the U.S. tonight.


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