# International Index Trading



## wayneL

US Indices, FTSE, DAX, Hang Seng, Nikkei, whatever.

Discuss it here. Normal rules apply;

No hindsite trades.

No solicitation of education services.

The posting of dollar sums of profit or loss is discouraged.

Do not post information or discussion on technique if you are not prepared to answer questions. Preservation of intellectual property is fine, but please, no teasers. This will be viewed as backdoor solicitation.

DO ask questions and partake in discussions for mutual benefit

DO respect peoples time and opinion.

Cheers


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## Edwood

cheers Wayne - and the SPI too of course! 

big spike up on the futures pre-open for Dow, looking like 70+ gap at the moment.  Caterpillar beat estimates, as did Honeywell, on top of Googles results.  hard to believe just over a month ago we were below 12,000!


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## reece55

Edwood said:


> cheers Wayne - and the SPI too of course!
> 
> big spike up on the futures pre-open for Dow, looking like 70+ gap at the moment.  Caterpillar beat estimates, as did Honeywell, on top of Googles results.  hard to believe just over a month ago we were below 12,000!




Yep, nothing short of incredible.

I looked when the DJA was 50 points up and contemplated a long, thought I may have missed the boat however. Hrmm.... Now 93 as we speak..... It is going to be a big night on the NYSE......

However, Wall Street is looking pretty overbought at the moment. The thing that interests me is that structurally, the US economy is in big trouble. Their $ is down so much and the yen free carry is still on everyones lips. But their stock market is in serious bull mode..... As always, we need to trade on price, because its what pays us in the end. The shorts would be getting very hot under the collar by now and tonight might be a time where they close out.

Cheers


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## wayneL

Edwood said:


> cheers Wayne - and the SPI too of course!
> 
> big spike up on the futures pre-open for Dow, looking like 70+ gap at the moment.  Caterpillar beat estimates, as did Honeywell, on top of Googles results.  hard to believe just over a month ago we were below 12,000!




The only question is Gap & Trap, Gap & Stall or Gap and Run. 

Spooze (SP500) is already well past 24 hour r1. Prolly open at r2  

Places yer bets.


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## >Apocalypto<

Watching the pre market build as well as i type now 94

I am so tempted as well right now, to go long on the dow and aussie 200 but it does not meet my entry criteria.

It is so far away from its trend this is also confusing me i thought we would see a little more weakness.

I am thinking i will sit it out till the next dip.


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## wayneL

Notable in this rally is that it is all large caps driving the action. Small/medium caps aren't nearly so strong (as measured by Russel 2000)

This is apparently a bit ominous according to "experts".

dow at r2 atm, russel at only r1


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## wayneL

Longs don't have a good enough risk/reward for me. Will be looking to jump in front of the freight trai... err short opportunities


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## Edwood

me too Wayne fwiw - dangerous game, but we'll find out soon enough if it has legs or not


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## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> Notable in this rally is that it is all large caps driving the action. Small/medium caps aren't nearly so strong (as measured by Russel 2000)
> 
> This is apparently a bit ominous according to "experts".
> 
> dow at r2 atm, russel at only r1




I am not getting in on the long side, I am starting to think more on the correction side


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## Edwood

he he - good stuff this hey!  picked a good night to stay up for Dow!  coming off quickly now, was under water for a bit there


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## Edwood

well looking at the hourly candles we are well outside the upper bolly and a long tail above plus RSI > 80 so we should drop back from here - could be 50+ pts in it, stops in & off to bed for me

cheers for the new fred Wayne


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## reece55

Edwood said:


> well looking at the hourly candles we are well outside the upper bolly and a long tail above plus RSI > 80 so we should drop back from here - could be 50+ pts in it, stops in & off to bed for me
> 
> cheers for the new fred Wayne




Trading in a tight range at the moment - resistance @ 12,934~, with buyers supporting at about 12,918. It will be interesting to see if it holds the gains.....

I think we might give them back however...... Good luck in your short Edwood


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## wayneL

Some good signals of the pivots on the SPooze fwiw.

Bit of a zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz really.


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## Edwood

aye was a bit in the end, at least I got some sleep & wasn't stopped out.  nice chart Wayne - excuse my ignorance but whats the green band?

here's another picture for those who prefer them to lots a words!  yes those period separators show the rise is < 6 weeks in the making


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## wayneL

Edwood said:


> aye was a bit in the end, at least I got some sleep & wasn't stopped out.  nice chart Wayne - excuse my ignorance but whats the green band?



It's a slightly different way calculating pivots I pinched off fibonacci trader. Instead of the traditional calcs, it calculates 50% and 61.8% of yesterdays range above and below the pivot and fills in the space in between as a band of possible supp/res. (hat tip to Frank D)

I plot it as well as the traditional calcs.


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## Edwood

ah ok, looks useful!

they were still buying it up after cash close so thats me stopped out, apparently this week is statistically one of the strongest of the year in the US with average gain >1% but wasn't expecting a rise like that today.  maybe next week we'll see a bit of profit taking - altho SPI will no doubt have a good start 

have a good w/end!


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## Edwood

long term FTSE


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## Edwood

Dax.  similar pattern on Hang Seng & ASX fwiw, ie possibility of a decent wave 4 when the next correction gets going, back to last June lows, but not looking like the 'top'


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## Edwood

From The Times
 April 21, 2007
*CITIC Bank raises $5.4bn in largest IPO this year*


     Nick Hasell, Banking Correspondent 

  China’s CITIC Bank, the country’s seventh-largest bank, has raised $5.4 billion (£2.7 billion) in the world’s biggest initial public offering (IPO) so far this year.
Shares in the Beijing-based bank were priced at the top end of their range before the start of dealings in Shanghai and Hong Kong next week. The fundraising, which values the state-owned bank at $28.9 billion, is only the second simultaneous listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong since last October’s landmark $21. 9 billion debut of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the country’s biggest lender.


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## Edwood

Technical Market Report
   by Mike Burk

 
 The good news is:
  • All of the major indices closed at multi year or all time highs on Friday.
*Short Term*
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) completed the 7th of 7 consecutive   up days on Friday for the second time this month.
In the past 20 years there have been two similar events in 1987 and 1996,   but, none this close together.


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## CanOz

You know the other day when i was looking, i couldn't find a chart with this much volume (only looking at futures), so i didn't see the selling climax...but this chart shows it. 

So statistically we have a first, coupled with this blow off top....is anyone game to short this uptrend now?

Cheers,


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## wayneL

I'm not game to short it on rhe face of it (apart from day trades).

We are above resistance in the higher time frames and don't see any further resisitance until ~13,200. Volume as pointed out by CanOz duly noted though, I would just be looking for additional evidence. Monday will be telling.

Same story in the Spooze.

Nasdaq is a slightly different picture however basically at resistance, muddying the waters a bit (as Nas can be a leading indicator) I'd be more inclined to short this index or the russel.

FWIW

The cubes (nasdaq ETF)\/


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## Edwood

will look to fade any outrageous spikes but for tomorrow anyway will be looking for a gap up and trending up day for a new all time high on ASX - don't think we'll get a clear picture until mid-week once Europe & US have gotten through Monday

all the best!


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## wayneL

For anyone interested in pivot analysis on higher time frames....

http://www.nationalfutures.com/articles_all/Pivot Point.pdf

fwiw

Cheers


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## CanOz

wayneL said:


> For anyone interested in pivot analysis on higher time frames....
> 
> http://www.nationalfutures.com/articles_all/Pivot Point.pdf
> 
> fwiw
> 
> Cheers




Thanks Wayne, i've also got his book, Technical Trading Tactics, have you read it?

Cheers,


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## wayneL

CanOz said:


> Thanks Wayne, i've also got his book, Technical Trading Tactics, have you read it?
> 
> Cheers,



No I haven't read any of his material, but John knows his stuff. I have heard him speak on a teleseminar... CBOT or somewhere. Impressed.

He has another book... Pivots and Candlesticks or something like that as well.


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## reece55

wayneL said:


> I'm not game to short it on rhe face of it (apart from day trades).
> 
> We are above resistance in the higher time frames and don't see any further resisitance until ~13,200. Volume as pointed out by CanOz duly noted though, I would just be looking for additional evidence. Monday will be telling.
> 
> Same story in the Spooze.
> 
> Nasdaq is a slightly different picture however basically at resistance, muddying the waters a bit (as Nas can be a leading indicator) I'd be more inclined to short this index or the russel.
> 
> FWIW
> 
> The cubes (nasdaq ETF)\/




I am with Wayne here CanOz, apart from intra day, there is no way I would be holding an overnight short position on the Dow Jones...... 

Strong accumulation, coupled with break of all time highs signifies to me that this bull run has further to go for the US. And even though the ASX is way way way over extended, we will probably follow the US upward.

I agree with Wayne in saying that perhaps the Russel or the QQQQ's would be a better bet on the short side. However, in general I think we will see further gains ahead on the US and this should gravitate both other indicies upwards. I will watch with interest on Monday night however!

One place I always go to for a review of the US market is the Alpha Trends Blog Spot. 

http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/

Brian Shannon has excellent down to earth commentary on the index, as well as suggestions for stocks to play. It's worth a look!

Cheers
Reece


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## Edwood

good links Wayne & Reece, thanks for those

heres another good weekly diary which is worth looking in on - they're calling the recent action a 'black swan' 

http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday042207st.html


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## Edwood

reece55 said:


> I am with Wayne here CanOz, apart from intra day, there is no way I would be holding an overnight short position on the Dow Jones......
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




yes hear what you're saying re: o/n Dow shorts Reece, 30 stocks is not really a good reflection of the general market.

there's a bit in here supporting Nasdaq topping soon-ish fwiw

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7405.htm

anyone else have a problem with the shadowtrader vid?  keeps hanging for me at 5.09...


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## CanOz

Edwood said:


> good links Wayne & Reece, thanks for those
> 
> heres another good weekly diary which is worth looking in on - they're calling the recent action a 'black swan'
> 
> http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday042207st.html




Great link, forgot about option expiry, explains the volume 

I think i'll sign up for that.

Cheers,


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## wayneL

CanOz said:


> Great link, forgot about option expiry, explains the volume
> 
> I think i'll sign up for that.
> 
> Cheers,



I've watched his videos through www.redoption.com for while. He's pretty good. It is good to get other peoples thinking.

But the danger is in defaulting to the gurus thoughts instead of your own. Just something to be aware of IMO.


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## reece55

Edwood said:


> yes hear what you're saying re: o/n Dow shorts Reece, 30 stocks is not really a good reflection of the general market.
> 
> there's a bit in here supporting Nasdaq topping soon-ish fwiw
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/article-7405.htm
> 
> anyone else have a problem with the shadowtrader vid?  keeps hanging for me at 5.09...




Thanks for the link Edwood..... Nice review, I like it......

No issues here, i am at about 10 mins through with no issues....

Re the Dow, I agree it is not a great indication of the US market as a whole - but its a great instrument to trade intra day because of the leverage you can get with minimal margin requirements. The S&P 500 is the best indication of the market as a whole, I just wouldn't trade it long because of the finance costs on a CFD (which is the only way I trade overseas indicies at present). However, the Spyders themselves are just shy of there high as well, my view is that it will break through that area in the coming months. I do see a retrace at some stage however.......

Cheers
Reece


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## Edwood

cheers Reece, must be my laptop, will try it again

know what you mean Wayne re: "guru's", got suckered into a couple of painful bearish plays last year but thankfully am over that stage & follow my own plan these days.  still like to keep up with what people are thinking tho

some good stuff coming out on the thread - cheers for setting it up!


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## wayneL

reece55 said:


> ..
> 
> Re the Dow, I agree it is not a great indication of the US market as a whole - but its a great instrument to trade intra day because of the leverage you can get with minimal margin requirements. The S&P 500 is the best indication of the market as a whole, I just wouldn't trade it long because of the finance costs on a CFD (which is the only way I trade overseas indicies at present). However, the Spyders themselves are just shy of there high as well, my view is that it will break through that area in the coming months. I do see a retrace at some stage however.......
> 
> Cheers
> Reece



Interesting re the Dow. Scrolling through the Dow constituents, not many are at all time highs as would be suggested by the index itself. Apparently, the weightings are distributed via price, rather than capitalization.

This makes it even worse as a measure of the overall market.

As you say it doesn't stop it being a great trading vehicle, just a flousy index.


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## Edwood

oo-er missus!  bit of a pop-n-drop on ASX today, thought we might have seen a bit more follow-through on the rise.  Europe & US could be interesting then


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## wayneL

I've been watching the reverse correlation between the yen lately. When the carry trade was in the news recently there was a strong reverse correlation between the yen and the US indices.

That reverse correlation has broken down substantially as the carry trade scare has abated...

...but worth noting, The yen is once again showing signs of a pulse and is up against the major pairs today so far, particularly up against the USD.

Mightn't mean anything, just a heads up.


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## CanOz

This pair is the USD/JPY, and it could be forming a H&S pattern. This would be in fact, correlated to the US indices if the theory has merrit right? 

Cheers,


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## wayneL

To avoid confusion

Forex is quoted USD/JPY whereas futures (what I refer to) is quoted as JPY/USD so the carts are the inverse of each other.

So yes forex would be correlated (for the purposes of this discussion) whereas the futures are "reverse" correlated.

So yes, in your case, correlated.


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## Edwood

wayneL said:


> To avoid confusion
> 
> Forex is quoted USD/JPY whereas futures (what I refer to) is quoted as JPY/USD so the carts are the inverse of each other.
> 
> So yes forex would be correlated (for the purposes of this discussion) whereas the futures are "reverse" correlated.
> 
> So yes, in your case, correlated.




well spotted guys

out of interest how come you use the future & not the FX Wayne?


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## professor_frink

evening fellow index punters

Funny day for me, sat through the morning session on the nikkei, which was just a little bit slow.

Went out to have lunch with Mrs Frink, thinking I wasn't going to miss out on much. *BIG* mistake 

Oh well. Always tomorrow

Today's chart of the nikkei


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## Edwood

couple of interesting charts out of this weeks EWI report


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## CanOz

wayneL said:


> To avoid confusion
> 
> Forex is quoted USD/JPY whereas futures (what I refer to) is quoted as JPY/USD so the carts are the inverse of each other.
> 
> So yes forex would be correlated (for the purposes of this discussion) whereas the futures are "reverse" correlated.
> 
> So yes, in your case, correlated.




Sorry Wayne...but your point was also that it seemed to be leading?

Cheers,


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## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> evening fellow index punters
> 
> Went out to have lunch with Mrs Frink, thinking I wasn't going to miss out on much. *BIG* mistake
> 
> Today's chart of the nikkei




evening Prof!  aw, shame to miss that one - never mind, Missus P would've been happy


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## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> evening Prof!  aw, shame to miss that one - never mind, Missus P would've been happy




aye, she woulda been

She was happy I went to have lunch with her but!


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## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> couple of interesting charts out of this weeks EWI report




Agree Elwood dropped all my aussie dollar cfd's today.
I will look to pick it up again after the retracment. As long as it comes back that is!


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## wayneL

Edwood said:


> out of interest how come you use the future & not the FX Wayne?




There are a few reasons, but one of the main reasons is the capability of using options.



CanOz said:


> Sorry Wayne...but your point was also that it seemed to be leading?
> 
> Cheers,




Well it was definitely leading when the carry trade scare. It hasn't for a few weeks now. Just bringing up the possibility now again as the yen is going against the flow... USD going into Yen again?

As I say just a heads up.


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## wayneL

wayneL said:


> Well it was definitely leading when the carry trade scare. It hasn't for a few weeks now. Just bringing up the possibility now again as the yen is going against the flow... USD going into Yen again?
> 
> As I say just a heads up.



Well the yen rise was taken out, YCT watch cancelled.


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## Edwood

wayneL said:


> There are a few reasons, but one of the main reasons is the capability of using options.




you know options didn't even occur to me - cheers Wayne

a couple of charts in here for China - madness 

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7417.htm


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## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> you know options didn't even occur to me - cheers Wayne
> 
> a couple of charts in here for China - madness
> 
> http://www.safehaven.com/article-7417.htm




Thanks for the link Elwood.

That is a scary thing to see, the first chart looks dangerous.

So much divergence on the second chart.

I agree that they do have the power to cause ripples in the world pond now, lets hope the bank of china steps in to stop anything really mad taking place.

What a grand old world we live in now, is this the beginning of the changing of the guard?  

I asked my Girl friend (she's Chinese) if you can trade CFD's and option over the chinese indexes she told me she did not think so. Would maybe be a great short opportunity there one day in the future.

You guys know if you can there is one on IG for Hong Kong

Correction IG have a china H share index available I have attached a chart 4hour 3 months. see that lovely 10% fall at end of feb, recovered quite well though.


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## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> I agree that they do have the power to cause ripples in the world pond now, lets hope the bank of china steps in to stop anything really mad taking place.
> 
> what a grand old world we live in now, is this the beginning of the changing of the guard?




think its too late to stop the madness tho TI.  Haven't been keeping track of it lately but before the last correction people were queuing outside brokers for hours trying to open accounts, buying shares on credit cards, mortgaging their houses to get into the market... and choosing shares which they had no idea of the underlying business but which had lucky sounding names...

there's the Hang Seng (HSI) for local exposure - but when China goes all markets will be affected imo.  just chose the one that suits your risk profile  I don't think I will be trying to pick the top on HSI     ASX, Dax and Dow will be fine for me


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## Edwood

cheers for that TI






NASDAQ






then have another look at that China chart


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## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> think its too late to stop the madness tho TI.  Haven't been keeping track of it lately but before the last correction people were queuing outside brokers for hours trying to open accounts, buying shares on credit cards, mortgaging their houses to get into the market... and choosing shares which they had no idea of the underlying business but which had lucky sounding names...
> 
> there's the Hang Seng (HSI) for local exposure - but when China goes all markets will be affected imo.  just chose the one that suits your risk profile  I don't think I will be trying to pick the top on HSI     ASX, Dax and Dow will be fine for me




Yeh agreed!

But imagine the ride on that short, fast!

But then you always have to worry the bank of china will start poring money into it to halt the free fall.

It is still a amazing place china government has such precived control, but from what we see I think its gotten why out of control. last quarter 11.4% increase in economy after they said they are slowing it down!


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## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> cheers for that TI
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NASDAQ
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> then have another look at that China chart






Ha Ha Ha

I was thinking that as well! but due to the bank of China being able to step in (if they want to). I think they will come to the rescue you have to understand the amount of cash they have at there disposal right now! It is just crazy!


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## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> I was thinking that as well! but due to the bank of China being able to step in (if they want to). I think they will come to the rescue you have to understand the amount of cash they have at there disposal right now! It is just crazy!




yeah no doubt there will be some intervention TI - I'm more just flagging the potential risk of taking longs at the moment other than on short time-frames.  A significant retrace might not happen for a while yet, and there are lots of points to be made on daily ranges until then.  Anyway enough of the long term charts from me!


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## Edwood

SPI getting itself wound up for a break but no real indication of direction since the CPI spike.  perhaps ASX is waiting for direction from o/seas


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## CanOz

Bounce or break time for Wall St. Mini.


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## wayneL

Europe is various shades of red. I'm beginning to warm to your blow off top hypothesis CanOz.

Traded shorts the last two sessions (day trades), maybe tonight we'll get a decent trend session to the downside.


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## wayneL

Looks like we might get a trend down day. SPooze is already below the weekly PP and daily S1.

Ambitious target of 1475 on the futs.

Mind you, the bulls are fully capable of buying on any news....


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## CanOz

I'm sitting here with my finger on the short trigger, wondering if i want to waste a good nites sleep or not....defines a new type of risk really .

Cheers,


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## CanOz

Looks like everything might be having a wee bounce....before a move lower?

Cheers,


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## wayneL

These muppets would buy anything. 

Shorts still need to be on their toes


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## CanOz

wayneL said:


> These muppets would buy anything.
> 
> Shorts still need to be on their toes




LOL! So true, too much money.

Everything is hanging around support like a bad smell, i'm not gonna short anything without some decent confirmation....bedtime i think...oppotunity on the other indices tomorrow.

Cheers,


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## wayneL

A good exit for shorts at higher lower @ S2. IMO


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## wayneL

wayneL said:


> A good exit for shorts at higher lower @ S2. IMO



Turning out to be an excellent long entry too.

I'm beginning to think if NY was nuked it would be bullish


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## Edwood

so buy the dips is still the only strategy in town then...  oh well at least we don't have to think too much


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## Edwood

UK spreadbet co's have the US (i.e., Dow) making new highs pre-open, currently 12,985 offered.  Lots of economonical data out today, for anyone interested in being awake for it, should get some movement. (I'll be making zzzz's)

25/04/2007 13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m  1.1% -1.0%   
25/04/2007 13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m  2.6% 1.7%   
25/04/2007 15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks      
25/04/2007 15:00 USD New Home Sales  0.89M 0.85M   
25/04/2007 15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories   -1.0M   
25/04/2007 17:30 USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks      
25/04/2007 19:00 USD Beige Book


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## wayneL

Once again the gap up makes shorts a better risk/reward proposition than longs and the headfake at 3day R1 was a nice short signal. Chart later.


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## wayneL

The state of play at 10:15 NYT


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## Edwood

aww lovely! well thats 13k done, apparently the Fed usually has a lot of funding to deal with for the next couple of weeks so will be tightening money supply.  some Elliott practitioners on a UK site I follow think up to 13,150-ish max but that we're in the zone to complete the move (edit - Dow obviously, I should say I guess given that this is an indices thread)


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## wayneL

Edwood said:


> aww lovely! well thats 13k done, apparently the Fed usually has a lot of funding to deal with for the next couple of weeks so will be tightening money supply.  some Elliott practitioners on a UK site I follow think up to 13,150-ish max but that we're in the zone to complete the move (edit - Dow obviously, I should say I guess given that this is an indices thread)



I have a similar top for the short term, and a provisional top of around 13300 until the end of June... that is unless the bulls really get hold of this.

Quite frankly, the bulls have their tail in the air so could go 13750, who knows.

Interesting your comments about tightening money supply, will keep an eye on that.


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## bean

DOW yes it is in a blow off top, sites I visit over the last month or so have been predicting this move.  2550 on the Nasdaq puts it back into Bubble territory so to speake.  The DOW will make its final top early next week then a pullback of say few hundred points (200-500) then a push and fail.
Everthying will fall to begin with.  I am a GOLD bull and Gold and there share will fall.  However Gold and there shares will be the best performers for the rest of the year


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## Edwood

morning Mr Bean - yes fun times are coming  

Dax and the SMI (Switzerland) looking like good shorts soon-ish, for the European element.  but the risk as Wayne says is that it could shoot

some bad news coming out of Spain re: their property bubble...

"Spain could now find itself facing a monetary squeeze just as the economy swings from boom to bust, more or less the fate suffered by Britain in the ERM debacle of 1992, except that Spain has no way out.

Bernard Connolly, global strategist for Banque AIG and former head of economic research for the European Commission, said the country will face a brutal adjustment over the next two years - if it can remain in the euro at all.

He said: "Spain is going to face the very direst of economic circumstances: a cycle of recession, deflation and widespread private sector default - a depression in fact. This stock market slide is not just a 'correction'. It has a very, very, long way to go.""


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## wayneL

It took the combined efforts of R3 and 3DR2 to halt this freight train...

...or did they just run out of time


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## Edwood

from the Wall St Examiner today.

"In actions that are unprecedented, at least since the days immediately following 9/11/01, the Fed added a net of $16.5 billion to the market, and scheduled another $18 billion to be injected on Monday"


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## CanOz

Edwood said:


> from the Wall St Examiner today.
> 
> "In actions that are unprecedented, at least since the days immediately following 9/11/01, the Fed added a net of $16.5 billion to the market, and scheduled another $18 billion to be injected on Monday"




Hi, Edwood, you have some more of that article? So its the PPT?

Cheers,


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## Edwood

Morning CanAusUK - I should have a full copy later, thats the headline from the Examiner website.  seems they want to keep it running higher....


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## Edwood

here's a bit more on the Spanish property thing.  There are a lot of Brit investors with multiple properties in Spain.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6592203.stm

what do they say again?   bull markets like to climb a wall of worry...


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## Pager

I started a Simple futures system on Reef Cap, the exact same set-up rules apply for 3 Index futures markets, i update how the system is going at the end of each week, maybe of intrest to anyone wanting to trade Index futures or Mechanical trading.

Here is a link

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=15;t=000286

Cheers

Pager


----------



## Edwood

intresting - how does it work Pager?

Aus working itself into a bit of a congestion here, should be a decent break out of it soon enough (sorry can't be more specific  ) 

don't touch it till it moves is usually the best approach...


----------



## Pager

It’s a very very simple set up Edwood, then uses a very tight stop, runs about 38% profitable across the 3 markets I trade it on Spi, Nikkei and Hang Seng.

Has only 3 parts to the set-up, 2 pattern based and 1 technical, returns based on 1 contact and starting with $25K each year average over 40% for the past 12 years for which I have data that’s including costs and slippage. 

Draw downs are low and it averages about 3 trades a month on each market.

Posted about it just to show simple works combined with discipline in taking every trade and risk as in only risking a few hundred dollars on each trade but returns are sometimes 10 times the risk, also wanted to highlight you can be wrong most of the time and get stopped out but at the end of the day it doesn’t matter as losses are always small, slippage permitting which on the Hang Seng can be nasty on occasion, wins are not capped aside from exiting  when the exchange closes.


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> from the Wall St Examiner today.
> 
> "In actions that are unprecedented, at least since the days immediately following 9/11/01, the Fed added a net of $16.5 billion to the market, and scheduled another $18 billion to be injected on Monday"



MP3 file- WSE discussing:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/WallStreetExaminerRadio/~3/111956323/wse42507.mp3



> "In actions that are unprecedented, at least since the days immediately following 9/11/01, the Fed added a net of $16.5 billion to the market, and scheduled another $18 billion to be injected on Monday. The Fed did $2 billion in overnight repos, $14.5 billion in 8 day repos and $16 billion in 5 day forward, 3 day repos settling Monday. There were no expirations today. These actions set up $44.5 billion in expirations for next Thursday. They raised the 5 day net to an add of $17.66 billion, after having been at a drain for most of the prior week.
> 
> This add is on top of $89 billion in Treasury debt paydowns last week, and $4.6 billion at this week's auctions. The timing of the Treasury auction settlements means that $22.5 billion in paydowns will hit the market on Thursday, but next Monday they will raise $17.5 billion in new cash with the settlement of 2 and 5 year notes and 5 year TIPS. Could that be the reason for the forward repos? If so, it suggests that one or more of the primary dealers may be under stress. My guess would be that it is Countrywide, the only one whose primary business is mortgage banking."


----------



## chops_a_must

Bahahahahahahahahahahaa!

Almost as good as the John Howard reaction figure on the Chaser.


----------



## CanOz

Mini Spain 35 filled the gap nicely. Wasn't in the trade as i had to go out for dinner. I marker my 'would be' entry on the chart with the red line.

One to keep an eye one for shorts.

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

SPooze bounce off the Pivot Point.


----------



## reece55

And here we go again Wayne......

Apple obviously reported stellar earnings, all to a record high....

With MSFT to come after the close, nothing can stop the rampant bulls from running in the US...... You just don't want to be short in this market at present!

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

reece55 said:


> And here we go again Wayne......
> 
> Apple obviously reported stellar earnings, all to a record high....
> 
> With MSFT to come after the close, nothing can stop the rampant bulls from running in the US...... You just don't want to be short in this market at present!
> 
> Cheers



Yer, I'm a bull tonight  

Waiting for it to take out yesterdays highs (grey dotted line) before getting too excited, still a couple of points away. 

I hope my cousins aren't waiting in ambush.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> Yer, I'm a bull tonight
> 
> Waiting for it to take out yesterdays highs (grey dotted line) before getting too excited, still a couple of points away.
> 
> I hope my cousins aren't waiting in ambush.




Bastids! LOL


----------



## Edwood

tough luck Wayne.  are you up all night or something??  I nearly made Dow open last night but closed my short before the open unfortunately.  did OK shorting the FTSE gap open tho so it all worked out fine in the end


----------



## Edwood

given the weakness in Aus today there could be some follow through into Europe later - FTSE could come off a bit on the back of the miners.  unfortunately out of FTSE for the moment - probably prematurely, but short the SMI, Dax and Dow


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> given the weakness in Aus today there could be some follow through into Europe later - FTSE could come off a bit on the back of the miners.  unfortunately out of FTSE for the moment - probably prematurely, but short the SMI, Dax and Dow




Whats your thoughts on the Spain 35 Edwood? More downside i reckon.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Whats your thoughts on the Spain 35 Edwood? More downside i reckon.
> 
> Cheers,




hi Can - not sure to be honest I've never looked at it.  Haven't got my system in front of me right now but will have a look later.  At a guess if the bigger markets are off in Europe it will probably follow suit

Where in China are you? (if you don't mind me asking)


----------



## bean

For interest just read an article 
Question can anyone remember what YEAR the DOW last rose 18 out of 20 days.
Its current 8 up 1 down 7 up 1 dow currently 3 up


----------



## Edwood

bean said:


> For interest just read an article
> Question can anyone remember what YEAR the DOW last rose 18 out of 20 days.
> Its current 8 up 1 down 7 up 1 dow currently 3 up




no idea Mr Bean - must be pretty rare tho I would've thought - 2003?


----------



## professor_frink

afternoon folks,

pretty big day so far on the nikkei- good rewards for anyone dumb enough to step in front of the freight train just after the open, it's now spent the rest of the day working back towards where it started.


----------



## bean

Now if the peson had not mentioned the year in his first sentence I may have thought 1987

However the last time the DOW was up 18 out of 20 days

1929  does history repeat


----------



## Edwood

bean said:


> Now if the peson had not mentioned the year in his first sentence I may have thought 1987
> 
> However the last time the DOW was up 18 out of 20 days
> 
> 1929  does history repeat




if I was a bear I'd be getting excited now Mr B...  lucky I'm not hey 

howdee Prof!  selling down nicely.  All this pumping going on in the US, something is up....


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> hi Can - not sure to be honest I've never looked at it.  Haven't got my system in front of me right now but will have a look later.  At a guess if the bigger markets are off in Europe it will probably follow suit
> 
> Where in China are you? (if you don't mind me asking)




Yes, China. Have you heard the news on the Spanish stock market Edwood? Reports saying it has further to drop, i think it was on the property thread. Anyway the day before yesterday saw a big drop, one to watch anyway.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Yes, China. Have you heard the news on the Spanish stock market Edwood? Reports saying it has further to drop, i think it was on the property thread. Anyway the day before yesterday saw a big drop, one to watch anyway.
> 
> Cheers,




oh yeah, I think that bloke was talking more about the fundamental picture for Spanish property and saying the property slowdown would take the market & economy down but not sure that he was referring to a short-term trade - well done if you got one out of it tho!!


----------



## Edwood

China must be an interesting place to be based - I traveled through there in 1999 with Mrs Ed, with a great experience, bet its changed a lot since then tho


----------



## CanOz

Yes, its interesting for sure....just on 18 months here, and i've only just got over the shock.

Heres the last couple of day on the Spanish market. Would have love to have faded that gap up today....too busy to see it on time.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

yeah it was full-on when we were there, we were surprised how motivated everyone seemed to be to get ahead, even way out in the country.  I guess it was a case of having to or being left behind.

here's my view of the SMI fwiw - could have a truncated 5 up into the latest high so the pattern could be complete now, needs to hold that line if its going to make new highs, otherwise could soon be time to put some shorts on!

oops - edited - thats Spain!!  not SMI (blame it on the glass of wine )


----------



## Edwood

have doubled up on the SMI (Switzerland) short


----------



## wayneL

I just hope we don't get a monumental gap down in the US. That will mess up the risk/reward for shorts


----------



## Edwood

aye and am well aware of the opposite happening too tho!  

here's longer term Nasdaq since you mentioned it the other day Wayne


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Is that Nasdaq chart a megaphone top or bottom?

"A Megaphone Top also known as a Broadening Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may reverse to form a new downtrend."


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Is that Nasdaq chart a megaphone top or bottom?
> 
> "A Megaphone Top also known as a Broadening Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may reverse to form a new downtrend."




Interesting UF, i was wondering if there was a pattern for that!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

yep thats the one, usually followed by swift retreat, but watch for partial declines (bullish) and partial rises (bearish) - i.e., fails to reach the trend line on the next move.  given that we are at a short term top, Nas is probably a bearish one.

fwiw Dow is in a very large one from a few years now which McHugh calls the "Jaws of Death" - gotta smile about that one 

this guy is very good on his broadening patterns 

http://books.google.com/books?id=Kk...GlPE&sig=63Doth0405N_I9KwhFnjh4RCJuM#PPA97,M1


----------



## CanOz

Wow, was just watching the swiss chart! What happened there? 30 point spike down...


----------



## CanOz

Lots of indexs got hit at the same time...has something happened?

The FTSE dropped 25points+ in 5 minutes...


----------



## Edwood

US GDP came in lowest in 4 years, way under target

I think consumer confidence is out today too tho so no doubt they'll buy that up


----------



## Edwood

so we have low growth in the US now then, and inflation at the same time


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> US GDP came in lowest in 4 years, way under target
> 
> I think consumer confidence is out today too tho so no doubt they'll buy that up





Yup...got it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/18339453

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> so we have low growth in the US now then, and inflation at the same time




Yeah, its gradually falling apart at the seams, makes you wonder what numbers to believe....

This latest news may weaken the dollar more....


----------



## reece55

CanOz said:


> Yeah, its gradually falling apart at the seams, makes you wonder what numbers to believe....
> 
> This latest news may weaken the dollar more....




New lifetime highs for USD/EUR pair......

The USD just continues to bleed!!!!

And it finally looks like we may see a pull back on the Dow - even with Microsoft's numbers (and boy, they were pretty good).

Interesting Friday night!

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

reece55 said:


> New lifetime highs for USD/EUR pair......
> 
> The USD just continues to bleed!!!!
> 
> And it finally looks like we may see a pull back on the Dow - even with Microsoft's numbers (and boy, they were pretty good).
> 
> Interesting Friday night!
> 
> Cheers




You can pump up the share market but the dollar doesn't lie!!!!

bahahahahaha! To quote "chop's" laugh.


----------



## Edwood

Can

might just have to stay up for a bit of the US session tonight...


----------



## CanOz

Funny, i just saw your name as being online and i wondered if you would stay up to watch this....

Here's what i've got open...
Gold up....
Eur/USD up...
USD/JPN down...
Wall St...still bouncing off the trend line as we speak..
oh....and crude oil off a bit...
Can't open any more, i've only got one screen.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

got the ASX, Dow and SMI up over here - also have a short on Dax but not watching that one, it'll go when its ready.

am still wary of the risk of a rally - would look a bit too obvious though you'd have to think if they tried it on now!


----------



## bean

or those of you who like charts charts and more charts this is a person I have a lot of time for he also gives good logic
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/main.html
He gan gave in you like for those wavers a description.  But he does these one a week todays interesting but the last on Amazon most interesting


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> am still wary of the risk of a rally




I'm sure we'll be seeing headlines like:

Stocks surged on news of the 16th qtr of economic contraction and disastrous employment figures.


----------



## Edwood

yeah they'll no doubt revise the figure up next time too!

I may as well go to bed at this rate, doesn't look like it'll lose support tonight

have a good one guys!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

wayneL said:


> I'm sure we'll be seeing headlines like:
> 
> Stocks surged on news of the 16th qtr of economic contraction and disastrous employment figures.





Yeah its a worry  , what the yen carry trade pointing to Wayne?


----------



## wayneL

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> Yeah its a worry  , what the yen carry trade pointing to Wayne?



It's off the agenda at the moment.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

wayneL said:


> It's off the agenda at the moment.




Cheers, let me know when its back on the agenda, always appreciate your heads up.


----------



## bean

Dow is down Gold and gold stocks up at the moment I have a problem.
They both will fisnish in the same direction?


----------



## wayneL

bean said:


> Dow is down Gold and gold stocks up at the moment I have a problem.
> They both will fisnish in the same direction?



Sellers are getting swamped buy buyers in the futures, watch it go green.


----------



## bean

The Blow off is continuing


----------



## bean

Yes we have green on all fronts now.
for those who want charts 
I hope "pink" is number one still she is a good singer


----------



## Edwood

Mike Burke this week on the SPX and Nasdaq stats:

"The last similar instance of AT being negative (bespoke indicator) while the indices were hitting   new highs was in July 1999. From this point the indices declined about 10%   before resuming their upward move. 1999 was also the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and the market was manic   in its upward move, similar to what we have been seeing for the past 9 months."...

but then later in the report

..."Next week has a very positive seasonal bias.  Both the OTC and SPX have been up about 75% of the time with an average gain   in excess of 1%."


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> bespoke





			
				Edwood3 said:
			
		

> Aye



(off topic)
You're an expat aren't you?


----------



## Edwood

sort of - spent the last 10 years in the UK, came to NZ to get some low-stress living before we decide where to send the kids to school.  figure once they're in school we'll be stuck for 10-15 years so we want to make the most of the time available now really


----------



## wayneL

Sounds like a good plan Edwood.

Anyhow, Interesting post from Ritholtz:



			
				Barry Ritholtz said:
			
		

> Which is Performing Better, the Dow or the S&P500 ?
> in Data Analysis | Index/ETFs | Investing | Markets
> 
> The short answer is, depends on how you calculate it.
> 
> The results of looking at these two indices from various angles may surprise you.
> 
> The Dow is at an all time high, the S&P500 a few percent below. But it turns out that, as a whole the SPX is doing much better than the Dow.
> 
> The New York Times' Floyd Norris gives us the details:
> 
> "The Dow is normally calculated as a price-weighted index, meaning that stocks with the highest price for a share get the heaviest weighting. That is largely a historical accident, as it was the easiest way to do it in the 19th century, when the best calculator available was a person with a pencil.
> 
> The most common method of calculating indexes is by market capitalization, in which the companies with the largest market value count for the most. The chart [below] shows how the Dow would look if it were calculated in that manner, instead of the other.
> 
> While the Dow is up 18 percent from March 24, 2000, when the S.& P. peaked, it would have been down 8 percent had market capitalizations been used in the computation. That reflects the fact that some of the Dow stocks that did the worst, including General Electric, Microsoft, Intel and Pfizer, are large capitalization stocks that had relatively low share prices. That meant they had little impact on the Dow as normally calculated, but a large effect on the Dow as computed using capitalization figures."
> 
> What about equal weight computation? Hasn't that ETF (RSP) out performed the standard S&P500? Glad you asked -- yes, yes it has:
> 
> "The third method often used in index calculations is one of equal weighting, which assumes that one puts the same dollar value into each stock in the index.
> 
> The chart [below] shows that the S.& P. 500, calculated by market capitalization, is still 2 percent below where it was on March 24, 2000. But that reflects poor performances by some of the same very large companies that starred before 2000 and have not done as well since. Calculated by equal-weighting, the S.& P. 500 is 82 percent higher than it was in 2000."
> 
> 
> The following charts show Dow and S&P500 performance since March 24 2000 (the day the S&P500 peaked):
> >
> click or much larger graphic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Graphic courtesy of NYTimes;
> Sources: S&P, Bloomberg
> 
> >
> >
> 
> It would be interesting to see a price-weighted version of the SPX, or a an equal-weighted version of the Dow.
> 
> Norris adds that by the market capitalization version makes clear that "the Dow has underperformed, even if it is the Dow that is the index setting records these days."
> 
> Of course, all of these measures are domestic. Measured in euros, the price-weighted Dow is 15% lower than its 2000 peak . . .


----------



## Edwood

interesting stuff Wayne - so this record setting is just an illusion...


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> interesting stuff Wayne - so this record setting is just an illusion...



If you look at the broader indices (SP500, Naz, R2K), none are at new highs, so yes a bit of an illusion.

Bears managed to kick a goal today. Are the Bulls simply exhausted? Even the Bobbleheads had no excuses for it apart from some mutterings about a stale rally.

Now, let's see if the cavalry turn up tommorrow. 



			
				Fly On Wall Street said:
			
		

> I know many of you "bear grabbers" out there profess the demise of the U.S. consumer, with all of his credit card debt and utter insanity. Clearly, you underestimate the resilience or stupidity of the U.S. consumer.
> 
> See, if our bank accounts run dry and credit cards get canceled, we will steal hub caps or sell off valuable family heirlooms, in order to buy the new iPHONE or flat panel T.V.
> 
> There is no stopping us. Ever!



Short term I think he is right. Medium term... Mr Fly may get "Bear Grabbed"


----------



## Edwood

yes I get the feeling that this bit of congestion on ASX anyway will be as good as a pull-back for the bulls and they'll just use the opportunity to step it up again from here.

but having said that, based on past experience I have a habit of getting into short swings a couple of days early.  have been short since Friday so maybe we'll get some down today.  if not will look to cover & play that bullish looking pennant / flag on ASX200


----------



## wayneL

Dip buyers in. P$#@weak effort from the bears TBH.

Bovine mode on.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> Dip buyers in. P$#@weak effort from the bears TBH.
> 
> Bovine mode on.



Trying to get to the pivot, but textbook bounce off support for daytraders.

Dip buying is the only game in town for swingers ATM.


----------



## bean

> However, yes however there is still strength in the DOW & NYSE it still wants to go higher although it has weakened slightly a number of indicators are still quite strongly positive and may require what I have mention above.
> 
> Tonight and tomorrow hold the key as to whether this is the start of a severve correction or not or a breather before the Dow advances and it has to advance with strength because the ‘Nasdaq needs help’



Part of what I mentioned in where the price of gold is going.

And yes the Nasdaq needs help all the help it can get.  It may also limit how far the Dow can advance.  The Nasdaq reached its high on friday?

It is being sold to the fund mangers who do their buying at this time of month???


----------



## wayneL

The DOW fraud makes a new high, but interestingly the broad based indices (SPooze, NAZ & R2K) DIDN'T.

Still, quite a nice run up from the 2x bottom at the pivot levels yesterday and a nice trade for those who caught it. The DOW fraud, being the headline index, might just excite folks into more buying but I'll have my eye on this resistance in the SPs for signs of a sell.


----------



## Edwood

onwards & upwards!  found this little gem...


----------



## Edwood

gawd its Friday again already!  non farm payrolls tonight - no point guess which way its gonna go

zzzzzzzzzzz


----------



## wayneL

Massive decrease in pay-rolls...Dow puts on a 100 

LOL


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> Massive decrease in pay-rolls...Dow puts on a 100
> 
> LOL




well futs 40 up pre-open - could even do 13,500 on cash tonight - only 220 away now and has been range-bound the last two days.  Microsoft, Yahoo, Reuters, RIO, BHP all in corporate action rumours pre-open


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> well futs 40 up pre-open - could even do 13,500 on cash tonight - only 220 away now and has been range-bound the last two days.  Microsoft, Yahoo, Reuters, RIO, BHP all in corporate action rumours pre-open



Yahoo up 16% in after hours
BHP up 2.5%


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> Yahoo up 16% in after hours
> BHP up 2.5%



Reuters up 23% pre market.


----------



## Edwood

blowing off by the look of it - could be entertaining


----------



## Edwood

crap number on a reduced target... 88k v's 100k

I see UBS had to close a US entity (hedge fund) due to mortgage loses - only opened a couple of years ago, if that, -$300m.  at least they're cutting the loser quickly I guess

so 200 pt rise then?  or 300?


----------



## CanOz

This going to be another "no brainer" fade off the opening spike down? Still just watching this, not game to par take.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

long term but probably worth keeping an eye on - haven't bothered trying to put a count on it, could be an extended 5 on the last rise, not too fused to be honest.  good enough to put a short on tho imo


----------



## Edwood

also Honkers looking about cooked too fwiw. got some time to watch it this evening, it likes to jump around a lot!


----------



## Edwood

bit of weakness in Europe this evening - Dax & SMI off around 1%.  US looking like gapping down - 50-odd on Dow, 5 on SPX


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> long term but probably worth keeping an eye on - haven't bothered trying to put a count on it, could be an extended 5 on the last rise, not too fused to be honest.  good enough to put a short on tho imo




short worked out OK - gapped filled too.  guess we're just waiting for the FOMC now....


----------



## wayneL

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

% held, more upage.

Give us 500 points down just to wake us all up again.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Wake up Jeff! (Wayne)  or you will miss the 'correction'. Only 500 points?

The interesting feature of the DJIA chart above is the slope or angle of the advance. Before the correction in March the market was predictable to the point of rounding over, then come the correction it takes off at an even greater rate yet the fundamentals have been slowly getting more worse than the period before the correction eg GDP, housing, auto's recessions etc.

The current advance angle is on track for an anualised return approaching 90%. Maybe this is the blow-off top formation? Sure looks like a head & shoulders forming to me.


----------



## wayneL

Uncle Festivus said:


> Only 500 points?




5000 would certainly be more interesting (and fun ) but 500 would at least relieve the monotony  ...and remind us what volatility is again. (I've forgotten, what is it?)


----------



## Edwood

lol Wayne - its getting a bit like that eh!

this guy has had impressive results the last year or so and is now looking to trim his longs...  all Dow again I'm afraid but hey ho

"Before we continue with our commentary, let us do an update on the two most   recent signals in our DJIA Timing System: 1st signal entered: 50% long position on September 7th at 11,385, giving us   a gain of 1,879.62 points
 2nd signal entered: Additional 50% long position on September 25th at 11,505   giving us a gain of 1,759.62 points
 As discussed earlier, the Dow Industrials has now risen during 23 out of the   last 26 trading sessions - extending a winning streak that had been unprecedented   since the May 31, 1955 to July 6, 1955 winning streak. From the March 28, 2007   close to last Friday's close, the Dow has risen 7.8%. While this is short of   the 10% rise during the streak in the summer of 1955, this is still impressive   nonetheless. More impressively, however, is the fact that the latest streak   has now surpassed the streak in the summer of 1955 in terms of up closes -   and is now in fact the longest winning streak since the July 1, 1927 to August   2, 1927 streak - when the Dow rose for 24 trading sessions out of the last   27 sessions. In terms of magnitude, the Dow also managed to rise 11.6% during   the summer 1927 streak. Following is a daily chart of the Dow Industrials during   the last such "winning streak" in the summer of 1927:


 Because of the current overbought condition, it makes plenty of sense to trim   down our 100% long position in our DJIA Timing System as a tactical measure   - even though in the longer-run (over the next three to four months), the bull   market in U.S. stocks still remains intact. As we discussed in our latest mid-week   commentary, this author will most likely trim our position if either of   the following occurs:

     A one-day rally of over 200 points in the Dow Industrials either today       or this Friday;
     A one-day reading of over 200 in the ISE Sentiment Index either today,       this Friday, or anytime over the next week or so.
 However, readers should note that I will retain the flexibility of trimming   down our position even should NEITHER of the above two scenarios occur - so   don't be surprised if you see a "special alert" informing you that we have   trimmed down our position over the next week or so. More details to come in   this mid-week commentary, if we haven't already trimmed down our position by   that time."  Henry To


----------



## professor_frink

this morning's action on the Hang Seng below. 100+ pt selloff in the first 10 minutes followed by 150 pt rally. All in under an hour. 

Very good fun


----------



## CanOz

Bounced off your S1 like clockwork...was that yesterdays Pivots and do you use a standard calc for them?

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Bounced off your S1 like clockwork...was that yesterdays Pivots and do you use a standard calc for them?
> 
> Cheers,




That's just the standard daily pivot calc. For the Hang Seng, I don't really take that many trades solely based off pivots, but have them there as a general guide anyway. Always got to be careful the you don't jump in and buy what looks to be support too quickly on this thing- If it starts another leg down, then money can be lost very, very quickly


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> That's just the standard daily pivot calc. For the Hang Seng, I don't really take that many trades solely based off pivots, but have them there as a general guide anyway. Always got to be careful the you don't jump in and buy what looks to be support too quickly on this thing- If it starts another leg down, then money can be lost very, very quickly




Would dream of even attempting the HS. Do you trade it EOD or just ID? I'm sure you've said this before somewhere.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Would dream of even attempting the HS. Do you trade it EOD or just ID? I'm sure you've said this before somewhere.
> 
> Cheers,




just intraday. If I get the urge put on a swing trade, I'll generally do it on the spi.

Once you get used to the way it skips around, the HSI is great to trade. But it's definitely something that needs to be watched live for a little while before attempting


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> just intraday. If I get the urge put on a swing trade, I'll generally do it on the spi.
> 
> Once you get used to the way it skips around, the HSI is great to trade. But it's definitely something that needs to be watched live for a little while before attempting




Great advice as per usual Prof!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

The value of shares traded on China's stock markets on Wednesday was greater than the rest of Asia combined - including Japan - helping the benchmark index to breach the 4,000 mark for the first time. 

Analysts said this was almost certainly the first time that turnover at the Chinese bourses had exceeded that of the rest of Asia. The Shanghai Composite Index rose another 0.8 per cent Thursday morning to reach 4,044.060. Trading volumes remained heavy, with 107.5bn A shares changing hands, but moved at a slightly slower pace than on Wednesday.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Dow Jones - Don't know how technically correct the chart is, but it looks to be running out of steam or rounding over, & nicely within Fib ranges? Data out the next 2 days might tip it over maybe?


----------



## wayneL

Uncle Festivus said:


> Dow Jones - Don't know how technically correct the chart is, but it looks to be running out of steam or rounding over, & nicely within Fib ranges? *Data out the next 2 days might tip it over maybe*?




I'm beginning to wonder if NY being turned to glass wouldn't be viewed as extremely bullish... providing the Fed held rates that is


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> I'm beginning to wonder if NY being turned to glass wouldn't be viewed as extremely bullish... providing the Fed held rates that is




The funny thing with the whole business is that a bunch of analysts come up with some figure - say company profits - which had been in double digits for previous periods, and set it at a low value so that even when profits come out in the single digits ie profits are going down, it's viewed as a positive outcome because it bettered their estimate and the sp & indexs go up.

The economy is getting smashed & the financial Nero's are still playing the same tune  .


----------



## wayneL

Uncle Festivus said:


> The funny thing with the whole business is that a bunch of analysts come up with some figure - say company profits - which had been in double digits for previous periods, and set it at a low value so that even when profits come out in the single digits ie profits are going down, it's viewed as a positive outcome because it bettered their estimate and the sp & indexs go up.
> 
> The economy is getting smashed & the financial Nero's are still playing the same tune  .




Breaking News...

It was revealed today by the Dept of Labor that 1 in ten people still have a job and that average earnings had not reduced to zero as previously projected. Wall street surged on the news to make another all-time high of 135,128.

In other news, the Dept of Propaganda released the following decrees:

"Ignorance Is Strength"

"Freedom Is Slavery"

"War Is Peace"

"Black is White"

"Up is Down"

Wall street analysts reveal that this government initiative may propel the Dow to over 500,000.

Reuters.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Breaking News...
> 
> It was revealed today by the Dept of Labor that 1 in ten people still have a job and that average earnings had not reduced to zero as previously projected. Wall street surged on the news to make another all-time high of 135,128.
> 
> In other news, the Dept of Propaganda released the following decrees:
> 
> "Ignorance Is Strength"
> 
> "Freedom Is Slavery"
> 
> "War Is Peace"
> 
> "Black is White"
> 
> "Up is Down"
> 
> Wall street analysts reveal that this government initiative may propel the Dow to over 500,000.
> 
> Reuters.




If that is from Reuters, imagine the CNBC version of that story


----------



## Edwood

must be nearly time to get the beer suit on...

disappointing Walmart sales figures & US trade gap widens sharply


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> must be nearly time to get the beer suit on...
> 
> disappointing Walmart sales figures & US trade gap widens sharply



Bullish!!!! lol


----------



## chops_a_must

Uncle Festivus said:


> Dow Jones - Don't know how technically correct the chart is, but it looks to be running out of steam or rounding over, & nicely within Fib ranges? Data out the next 2 days might tip it over maybe?



Great call UF. I hope you were on it.

It will be interesting to see where it heads to from here, but looks to be a healthy fall at this stage.


----------



## Edwood

yes well spotted UF

and about feckin time!  these late nights have been killing me

this is ASX all sessions. closed Dow too early by the look of it but still short SMI & Dax


----------



## Edwood

nicked this from a UK bb for FTSE100


----------



## Edwood

and heres a harmonical one for the Dax - great stuff them harmonics, haven't had time to get my head around them yet unfortunately but why bother when people produce this!


----------



## Edwood

an update from Marty Chenard on China - GS have issued a warning today fwiw...   guess I'll have to double up on my ASX short again!

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> and heres a harmonical one for the Dax - great stuff them harmonics, haven't had time to get my head around them yet unfortunately but why bother when people produce this!




I don't quite understand it, but it looks real pretty


----------



## Edwood

yeah it looks impressive hey!  thats the Carney stuff Prof - think that one is a bearish gartley or something like that - all based around fibs (I think - but don't quote me, I have to read that stuff yet too!)

theres 3-4 guys over there who have it sussed.  the one below - he's coded an indicator up himself into MT4 that helps to spot them


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yeah it looks impressive hey!  thats the Carney stuff Prof - think that one is a bearish gartley or something like that - all based around fibs (I think - but don't quote me, I have to read that stuff yet too!)
> 
> theres 3-4 guys over there who have it sussed.  the one below - he's coded an indicator up himself into MT4 that helps to spot them




sweet. I'll have to bump it up the to do list then


----------



## CanOz

FTSE gapped way down open....does it often gap to S1 from the pivot?

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

yep FTSE likes to gap at the open but in general it makes for difficult trading imo.  not like ASX in terms of gap filling.  you get some reasonable trend moves in the morning but often sits from 12noon until US opens at 2.30pmGMT then just follows the US.


----------



## Edwood

closed SMI short for +104pts, only Dax short still running in Europe, re-opened ASX short


----------



## wayneL

Was that it for the downage? The slow grind up resumes.  

As perplexing as this is, I'm not unhappy. Not one short swinger ATM.


----------



## Edwood

doh!  typical... not nice to wake up to - that'll teach me 

at least they made the effort to fill the gap!  looks like we're about 40 over the close, roll on Monday 

have a good w/end!


----------



## wayneL

Breaking...

NASA has announced an asteroid, As3478KL76, a chunk of rock as big as 3 suns is hurtling towards earth and will impact in 48 hours and will completely destroy the entire solar system; Dow surges 400 points.


----------



## x2rider

What only 400 points , You must of forgotten about all the above ground minerals for mining now  after the asteriod hits !But I would probably look to short the health index 
 Dow surges 600 

Cheers martin


----------



## Edwood

ha ha ha - very funny fellahs...  fear not it looks like the end might be in sight.  two things to watch (sorry for the long post but worth reading):

*1. Something very strange is going on -*

Friday, April 11th. - 1 PM Update

China's indexes came within just a few percentage points of their 12 year resistance levels, just when the Chinese government became afraid that they couldn't control the parabolic (bubble) rise in the Shanghai.

Now, they feel that they have to intervene with measures that will stop the speculation from remaining out of control. Worldwide investors are now worried about "the what and the how" of what will be the Chinese government's solution. China's timing is bad, because anything they do is very late and could be an overkill of a problem that was close to resolving itself. One way or another, the Shanghai indexes will have a correction ... naturally or induced.

This is NOT an unexpected event like the one that occurred on February 27th. The FED, and Central Banks have anticipated the Shanghai correcting, and have damage controls in place to try and keep any panicking to overflow into other stable worldwide markets. 

China's government officials will be meeting this weekend on what to do, and are very likely to make an announcement over the weekend before their markets open on Monday.

Someone's playing a game today ...

You can’t short the internally closed Shanghai Index. There is a China Xinhua 25 Index, but it is a London-based index that is skewed to capturing longer-term price movements. If the FED or "someone" wanted to "buffer" a Shanghai drop, then they could buy and drive the FXI up letting the rest of the world know that we believe in the Chinese market and avert a sympathetic panic on our major markets.

So ... guess what happened today on the (FXI) Xinhua 25 index?

These are the historical FXI volumes:
The 5 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,950,586
The 20 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,825,863
The 6 Month Average FXI Volume: 1,907,314

This morning, at 65 minutes into the trading day, the FXI's volume was 4,909,800 ... over 250% higher than the average daily volume.
Two hours into the trading day, the FXI volume was 334% higher than the 6 month average daily volume and the price was up 5.21%.

After Goldman Sachs warned about a China correction yesterday morning, I don't think they are the ones buying up the FXI. I wonder who it could be?

If this is a buffer strategy, it could backfire if China's government doesn't scare its investors this weekend. Why? Because when Chinese investors hear the FXI went up over 5%, they are going to think that they are missing out on a good run-up ... and will want to jump in instead of jumping out. That would create a real problem for the Chinese government.

Please click this link to go to your Analyses and Recommendations at this link:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm 
(If you are having trouble with the link, copy and paste it in your browser.)

Regards, 
Marty Chenard


*2. BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The banking regulator said it will ease curbs on commercial banks investments in offshore stocks.*

In a statement on its website, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said it has removed equity investment restrictions on domestic banks, which under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme have not been allowed to directly invest in offshore stock markets.

The new regulations will broaden the scope of the QDII scheme, which has met with a lukewarm response to date because of the limited investment options available.

Meanwhile, the CBRC tightened its regulation on derivative investments, saying that banks cannot invest in derivatives, hedge funds or bonds rated less than "BBB".

Previously the regulation had barred direct investment in derivative products.


- potential risk for shorters that domestic Chinese banks tuck into non-domestic equity markets... I wonder how much cash they have????


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> Breaking News...
> 
> "Up is Down"




*NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed higher on the day and mixed on the week Friday, after upbeat news on wholesale inflation and weak retail sales lifted hopes that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates to boost a slowing economy.*
                  A government report showing weak April retail sales was expected by the market, after shares fell sharply Thursday when individual retailers posted bleak monthly sales. 
                           "It seems as though investors are still looking for any reasons to enter this market, and certainly [the Dow's] triple-digit losses is a pretty good reason," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. 
                           Georges Yared of Yared Research said, "The market just took a healthy dip yesterday. But for today, it was back to the races."

DOW comment - I think I'm beginning to like this logic. Turning more into a 'short the rallys' type of market I think, as it enters a whip saw phase while all the above bobble heads keep the closed loop of perpetual blinkered optimism paradigm bubbling along.

Bull traps ahead.


----------



## wayneL

Uncle Festivus said:


> *NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed higher on the day and mixed on the week Friday, after upbeat news on wholesale inflation and weak retail sales lifted hopes that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates to boost a slowing economy.*
> A government report showing weak April retail sales was expected by the market, after shares fell sharply Thursday when individual retailers posted bleak monthly sales.
> "It seems as though investors are still looking for any reasons to enter this market, and certainly [the Dow's] triple-digit losses is a pretty good reason," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.



It's bizarre. Interest rates are seemingly the only fundamental consideration at all in this market. In fact, this whole rally was sparked by the Fed holding rates and the use of vaguely dovish language by Helicopter Ben and his goons. This was done in response to an obviously slowing economy.

Bullish? WTF? Thank that controversial Jewish Rabbi of 2000 years ago that I'm a techie. I'd be broke if I traded on my view of the US economy.



Edwood said:


> ha ha ha - very funny fellahs...  fear not it looks like the end might be in sight.  two things to watch (sorry for the long post but worth reading):
> 
> *1. Something very strange is going on -*
> 
> Friday, April 11th. - 1 PM Update....(re FXI etc)




FXI came up on my early session scan. Went long delta to see what comes out of it.

This is ridiculous! A confirmed bear and I'm buying with ears pinned back


----------



## Edwood

might not be a silly move Wayne - if the Chinese manage to take some pressure out of their domestic market in a controlled way and at the same time let their banks loose on international equities....

got an old PC out today & was looking through some Dow charts that I'd put together last year.  this one was created on 8 May 2006.  don't use that system anymore but I'll download a months free trial & get an updated view on the P&F targets across the indices.  not sure how useful they'll be short term as they're built from daily data but amazing to see some of those targets hit when at the time they didn't look do-able...


----------



## CanOz

Thinking about a short on this on Monday, depending on the open. Any thoughts?

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

I'd probably be inclined to wait & short on a break of your trend line there CanAussie - its tested overhead resistance around 330 four times now so if it gets through that it could rocket.  but I ain't no candle expert!  is that a reliable set up?


----------



## Edwood

Can - when I say reliable set up I'm meaning that single candle + volume signal that you indicated?

this from market watch today:

"the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."

                            Slothower calculates that this means that "up to $2.3 trillion in China monies ... can now move out of China."


               To put a sum like that in perspective, consider that the total value of all publicly traded stocks in this country is around $15.1 billion, according to Wilshire Associates. If even a modest fraction of the $2.3 trillion makes its way into U.S. stocks, we could see a "further parabolic advance in equities," as Slothower puts it."




if they have that big a wedge whats to stop them buying commodity producers, like RIO or BHP?  I guess we'll soon find out if they are genuinely undervalued...  all longer term stuff of course, doesn't mean we won't have a decent correction tomorrow.  the place to watch I guess is the Hang Seng as that's probably the first place the money will go for foreign exposure, & Chinese stocks listed in the US


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> Can - when I say reliable set up I'm meaning that single candle + volume signal that you indicated?
> 
> this from market watch today:
> 
> "the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."
> 
> Slothower calculates that this means that "up to $2.3 trillion in China monies ... can now move out of China."
> 
> 
> To put a sum like that in perspective, consider that the total value of all publicly traded stocks in this country is around $15.1 billion, according to Wilshire Associates. If even a modest fraction of the $2.3 trillion makes its way into U.S. stocks, we could see a "further parabolic advance in equities," as Slothower puts it."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> if they have that big a wedge whats to stop them buying commodity producers, like RIO or BHP?  I guess we'll soon find out if they are genuinely undervalued...  all longer term stuff of course, doesn't mean we won't have a decent correction tomorrow.  the place to watch I guess is the Hang Seng as that's probably the first place the money will go for foreign exposure, & Chinese stocks listed in the US




Ed, have you heard any other news coming out of China/Hong Kong this morning?

Obviously there was going to be a gap up this morning, but I certainly wasn't expecting the HSI to gap nearly 700 points 

And then turn around and lose 150 in the space of 3 minutes. Was quite funny to watch. I really feel for anyone that bought the open


----------



## Edwood

wow!  that is scary Prof!  I spent yesterday afternoon trawling around some Chinese sites but don't have time today, just saw that note on marketwatch

just reading some of the Chinese news papers online you get a sense for the mania thats over there - one showed a Chinese monk lining up with his meagre salary to put in a punt, students investing all of their course funds & eating porridge & steamed bread until they take their "winnings" out of the market - so there's a real push behind it.  so opening the borders could just let it out globally - depends how much risk the banks want to take I guess.

impact for me - its meant that I've put some stops in - lately have been swinging with mental stops , but decided it was time to tighten things up a bit.  am still looking for a pull-back fwiw, but at least am protected now.


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> wow!  that is scary Prof!  I spent yesterday afternoon trawling around some Chinese sites but don't have time today, just saw that note on marketwatch
> 
> just reading some of the Chinese news papers online you get a sense for the mania thats over there - one showed a Chinese monk lining up with his meagre salary to put in a punt, students investing all of their course funds & eating porridge & steamed bread until they take their "winnings" out of the market - so there's a real push behind it.  so opening the borders could just let it out globally - depends how much risk the banks want to take I guess.
> 
> impact for me - its meant that I've put some stops in - lately have been swinging with mental stops , but decided it was time to tighten things up a bit.  am still looking for a pull-back fwiw, but at least am protected now.




scary indeed- had a valid short signal just after 12(which I chose not to take), it needed a 55 point stop. Under normal conditions, I'll have a 15-20 pt stop, and most of my winners are less than 55 pts 

Might have to look at some of these Chinese papers- sounds like they would be interesting. Could you post a link to a couple?


----------



## Edwood

yep, just google China Daily News Prof, there's a few associated sites there


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yep, just google China Daily News Prof, there's a few associated sites there




Cheers mate


----------



## CanOz

So if various overseas markets see this decision on Chinese foreign investment as bullish for them, the Shanghai and Shenzen markets should see this as bearish and sell off correct? Not that a logical argument is realistic in these markets...

The SSE opens at 10:30 i think.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> So if various overseas markets see this decision on Chinese foreign investment as bullish for them, the Shanghai and Shenzen markets should see this as bearish and sell off correct? Not that a logical argument is realistic in these markets...
> 
> The SSE opens at 10:30 i think.
> 
> Cheers,




Did you see what happened at the mainland open canuck? Didn't watch it myself, but the H-shares futs are up well over 100 since 10:30 HK time, and are now up 5% on the day


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> Did you see what happened at the mainland open canuck? Didn't watch it myself, but the H-shares futs are up well over 100 since 10:30 HK time, and are now up 5% on the day




No didn't see it either, only the H shares...my GF's stocks are well up today though...i think the mainland banks will do well out of this too. Hopefully this could make for a gradual withdrawl of funds from the mainland markets into foriegn markets....time will tell.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

yep I think you hit it on the button Can - "time will tell" - we'll just have to wait & see what happens.  and besides I'm not sure that considering the macro issues helps us short term traders much anyway (well my brain gets full-up too quickly fwiw!!  )

can't imagine a 5% move being sustainable Prof - maybe we're getting into pop & drop territory


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yep I think you hit it on the button Can - "time will tell" - we'll just have to wait & see what happens.  and besides I'm not sure that considering the macro issues helps us short term traders much anyway (well my brain gets full-up too quickly fwiw!!  )
> 
> can't imagine a 5% move being sustainable Prof - maybe we're getting into pop & drop territory




Dunno. Could go either way from here. Charts of H-shares(HHI) and Hang Seng(HSI) below- H-shares have managed to get to the Jan highs, and nudge through ever so slightly. Hang Seng failed to break the Jan highs last week, and has made another attempt today. I think today's afternoon session could set the tone for the rest of the week.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Re Chinese free reign to foreign investment. I would assume that they would need to purchase $US for this so we could see a jump in the $US, which has just started to tick up the last few weeks. Don't know if it's related?
Taking this a step further, could commodities come under pressure with a strengthening dollar? This would fit nicely into China's scheme of things.
Gold would take a hammering too?


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> Re Chinese free reign to foreign investment. I would assume that they would need to purchase $US for this so we could see a jump in the $US, which has just started to tick up the last few weeks. Don't know if it's related?
> Taking this a step further, could commodities come under pressure with a strengthening dollar? This would fit nicely into China's scheme of things.
> Gold would take a hammering too?





Why would they need to purchase USD for this?


----------



## Edwood

well they already have a massive wad of US treasuries so maybe they could flog some of those?  they've been alluding to diversifying away from the dollar for a little while so maybe this was what they meant, opening up their equity book


----------



## CanOz

It seems punters are speculating that the HK market will be the first place the Chinese will park thier newly freed funds....this is the H Shares.


----------



## Edwood

cheers for that CanAUK - looks like it'll be worth keeping an eye on that one


----------



## Edwood

so am guessing based on your ID you might be a Canadian-Aussie-Brit?   or is it Canadian-Aussie?


----------



## professor_frink

That was a very nice breakout on the H-shares today, but is really starting to struggle- has lost about 100 pts in the last hour. It's had some very impressive moves intraday recently.


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> so am guessing based on your ID you might be a Canadian-Aussie-Brit?   or is it Canadian-Aussie?




Spent 1/3 of my life in Australia, born in Canada....hoping to settle in NZ though one day...recently passed up an opp...too soon. Want to settle close to that world class fly fishing of yours Edwood.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> That was a very nice breakout on the H-shares today, but is really starting to struggle- has lost about 100 pts in the last hour. It's had some very impressive moves intraday recently.




I see Korea is up to, but Japan is down....i wonder how much of this is speculation on the new investment law here...the Chinese like the Koreans.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> I see Korea is up to, but Japan is down....i wonder how much of this is speculation on the new investment law here...the Chinese like the Koreans.
> 
> Cheers,




Dunno. Korea is barely ahead so I'm not sure if it means much.

I think trying to explain the markets in HK is beyond me. The H-shares have been down nearly 1%, up well over 1%, and have made a run back towards even for the day. 

Here's an explanation for today's movement- these markets are friggin' nuts!


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Dunno. Korea is barely ahead so I'm not sure if it means much.
> 
> I think trying to explain the markets in HK is beyond me. The H-shares have been down nearly 1%, up well over 1%, and have made a run back towards even for the day.
> 
> Here's an explanation for today's movement- these markets are friggin' nuts!




aye they are that Prof!    and I guess its a bit of a waste of time trying to figure out the which way it will go, just gotta watch for the signals on short-term eh!

NZ is nice CK - definitely lots of good fly-fishing & some stunning scenery.  prob like parts of Canada I'd imagine, altho I haven't been there.  its v. quiet tho - would be esp so for you after China!


----------



## professor_frink

professor_frink said:


> Dunno. Korea is barely ahead so I'm not sure if it means much.
> 
> I think trying to explain the markets in HK is beyond me. The H-shares have been down nearly 1%, up well over 1%, and have made a run back towards even for the day.
> 
> Here's an explanation for today's movement- these markets are friggin' nuts!




And the H-shares are now in the red again


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Another 'technical analysis by dummies' post. The DJIA is again looking a bit tired & the roundover top is coming along nicely, with the mini double top in place. Combined with data again that may disappoint we maybe looking at another red night for the DOW. Asian markets, & XJO off a bit too, with momentum carry over.

ICSC-UBS Store Sales        7:45ET   

CPI 8:30ET   

Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30ET   

Redbook 8:55ET   

Treasury International Capital 9:00ET   

4-Week Bill Auction     1:00ET   

Housing Market Index 1:00ET


----------



## Edwood

nice chart Uncle, looking like a good swing setting up.

Europe selling off pre-open - still short Dow, have tripled up on my Dax short, and opened one on Hang Seng too - could be in for some action tonight! (not that sort, the Missus is going out... )


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> nice chart Uncle, looking like a good swing setting up.
> 
> Europe selling off pre-open - still short Dow, have tripled up on my Dax short, and opened one on Hang Seng too - could be in for some action tonight! (not that sort, the Missus is going out... )




That's a fair pile of shorts Ed


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> could be in for some action tonight! (not that sort, the Missus is going out...




ha ha ha classic Elwood!


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> That's a fair pile of shorts Ed




More shorts than a Bondi surf shop this guy!


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> More shorts than a Bondi surf shop this guy!




He only goes long when the missus is home. Until then, the shorts are well and truly on hahaha.


----------



## Edwood

ha ha ha - I've got a red face now!

yeah, prob got a bit excited there   seems to have found support for now...


----------



## Edwood

Cyclewave (Charts) 14/5/07 -

Only one note of interest today, the high of the first 15 minutes trading hit the weekly down cycle projected high at 1510 which is also the lower line of the channel. From there it dropped over 10 points continuing the sideways trading pattern. In the morning the CPI is released at 08:30 and that can cause an anomaly before the market opens. Tuesday we have price projections support at 1495 to 1487 if no anamoly.

Daily test values at 1507 and 1499 will be the first key indication levels to monitor. This Wed late in the day to early Thur I expect the trend to turn up. The key is turn up from what level? If its above 1485 odds are we will get a slightly higher high, in the low 1470s odds are we will not get a higher high at the 5-22 high.

CAUTION; the wave up from the June 2006 low is an EXTENDED wave. Wave that are extended do not behave like a normal wave, they simply tank huge with no warning taking no prisoners and leaving longs with a loss. It would not be unusual to see the SnP drop over 100 points in one day after an extension like this one.


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> Cyclewave (Charts) 14/5/07 -
> 
> Only one note of interest today, the high of the first 15 minutes trading hit the weekly down cycle projected high at 1510 which is also the lower line of the channel. From there it dropped over 10 points continuing the sideways trading pattern. In the morning the CPI is released at 08:30 and that can cause an anomaly before the market opens. Tuesday we have price projections support at 1495 to 1487 if no anamoly.
> 
> Daily test values at 1507 and 1499 will be the first key indication levels to monitor. This Wed late in the day to early Thur I expect the trend to turn up. The key is turn up from what level? If its above 1485 odds are we will get a slightly higher high, in the low 1470s odds are we will not get a higher high at the 5-22 high.
> 
> CAUTION; the wave up from the June 2006 low is an EXTENDED wave. Wave that are extended do not behave like a normal wave, they simply tank huge with no warning taking no prisoners and leaving longs with a loss. It would not be unusual to see the SnP drop over 100 points in one day after an extension like this one.




Ahhh, it is the S&P your talking about, just caught it in the last line there. Agree with today's S1 and S2....now just waiting..more so to see the effect on my ASX 200 short.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

(DOW JONES AVERAGE) IG WALL ST

Price has a hit resistance at 12400, in a mayor unstable price line way off its 45 degree line. I am jumping on the red express band wagon. I am seeing a correction coming with a pull back to its 45 degree line. A healthy 38% or more retracement of the current trend from 12000.

As you can see in its last drive it pulled back to its line of price and time harmony. no longs for me right now. I am on the side lines.

* it all lines up on my chart but when it saves it jumps no idea why.*


----------



## bean

Trade_It said:


> (DOW JONES AVERAGE) IG WALL ST
> 
> Price has a hit resistance at 12400, in a mayor unstable price line way off its 45 degree line. I am jumping on the red express band wagon. I am seeing a correction coming with a pull back to its 45 degree line. A healthy 38% or more retracement of the current trend from 12000.
> 
> As you can see in its last drive it pulled back to its line of price and time harmony. no longs for me right now. I am on the side lines.
> 
> * it all lines up on my chart but when it saves it jumps no idea why.*





Try back to about 10800 and see if that holds


----------



## nizar

bean said:


> Try back to about 10800 and see if that holds




Bean.
It doesnt pay to be a bear in a massive bullmarket


----------



## bean

nizar said:


> Bean.
> It doesnt pay to be a bear in a massive bullmarket




All bull markets come to an end


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> Try back to about 10800 and see if that holds




bean if it breaks that line then yes it could drop to 10800 i agree.

but i will be watching to see where it finds support after it breaks. A drop back to the 1x1 line is more then a few hundred points down.

but we wont know till it breaks.  I hope it hits holds on the 1x1 line then it would really reinforce bullish strength


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> (DOW JONES AVERAGE) IG WALL ST
> As you can see in its last drive it pulled back to its line of price and time harmony. no longs for me right now. I am on the side lines.
> 
> * it all lines up on my chart but when it saves it jumps no idea why.*




stop-run spike out of hours - & of course they're buying it up again!


----------



## nizar

Favourable CPI data.
Another win for the bulls 2nite


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> All bull markets come to an end




Bean all good to make these comments & I respect them but do you have any hard evidence to back up these claims or is it just about a crash in china destroying every bourse around the world?

I am with Nizar till it breaks all trends then it's a bull market and I am looking long till it say's other wise!

Please read my signature


----------



## >Apocalypto<

nizar said:


> Favourable CPI data.
> Another win for the bulls 2nite




it sure has turned around up 20 point now from 27 down.

but sorry guys i am still with a correction even if it dose close and hold over 12400 i bet i will be saying this for the next month while it goes up and up!

I believe in Gann and prices love to pull back to the 1x1


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nizar said:


> Favourable CPI data.
> Another win for the bulls 2nite




Well yes, because the economy is tanking don't you think. 

When a consumer driven company like Home Depot posts a 30% drop for the qtr things are not going too well in consumer land; sooner rather than later this will make an impact. Just remains to be seen how long they remain in denial. 

Interest rate cuts aint gonna save em this time.

And the other minor matter just won't go away....

 SAN DIEGO -- An auction of nearly 100 foreclosed homes here Saturday showed that mortgage lenders are having to accept huge discounts in some cases to unload such properties.
  A surge of foreclosures over the past year or so has left lenders struggling to sell a growing backlog of homes. Rather than relying on real-estate agents, the usual practice, some are turning to large-scale auctions to speed up the sale process.


----------



## CanOz

This is what happened after i got stopped out of my GOLD long! CPI data....hope it tanks.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> This is what happened after i got stopped out of my GOLD long! CPI data....hope it tanks.
> 
> Cheers,



Walkin beside you there brother. Up is down - black is white! 

Have a look at the Fibonacci ranges - bouncing of 50%.


----------



## reece55

Cruel CanAussie, cruel....

Still, no one ever lost their capital by taking a stop loss mate, so if it was in accordance with your plan, then you have done well..

Cheers


----------



## nizar

Uncle Festivus said:


> SAN DIEGO -- An auction of nearly 100 foreclosed homes here Saturday showed that mortgage lenders are having to accept huge discounts in some cases to unload such properties.
> A surge of foreclosures over the past year or so has left lenders struggling to sell a growing backlog of homes. Rather than relying on real-estate agents, the usual practice, some are turning to large-scale auctions to speed up the sale process.




100 houses??
Is this statistically significant??  
I think not.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nizar said:


> 100 houses??
> Is this statistically significant??
> I think not.




Per day? Let's say for 1 week end = 5000 per year as foreclosures; as well as all the normal sales, for 1 city.
Multiply by same proportion throughout the US maybe.

So you don't see the housing bust as statistically significant?


----------



## nizar

Uncle Festivus said:


> So you don't see the housing bust as statistically significant?




LOL yeh of course i do.
Just keeping you on your toes


----------



## CanOz

reece55 said:


> Cruel CanAussie, cruel....
> 
> Still, no one ever lost their capital by taking a stop loss mate, so if it was in accordance with your plan, then you have done well..
> 
> Cheers




hmmmm...mental note to use EOD stops on GOLD.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nizar said:


> LOL yeh of course i do.
> Just keeping you on your toes




Ah you jokester you.


----------



## x2rider

Well I am in the same boat as Can. I went out and put some shorts on gold just before I left. And got a txt to say they had been actioned. 
But wasn't all that happy when I came home to see that 
Just can't seem to get a handle on it at the moment. I hope it tanks big time now 
Cheers martin


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> hmmmm...mental note to use EOD stops on GOLD.
> 
> Cheers,




Gotta love stops damned if you don't and sometimes damned if you do!

I remember i had a stop on RIO price dropped 1 cent into my stop then shot 70 cents straight back up.

I was rather angry   then just laughed


----------



## >Apocalypto<

x2rider said:


> Well I am in the same boat as Can. I went out and put some shorts on gold just before I left. And got a txt to say they had been actioned.
> But wasn't all that happy when I came home to see that
> Just can't seem to get a handle on it at the moment. I hope it tanks big time now
> Cheers martin




lol cuz you and Can pray for a tank I bet it will shot to 700! So I better load up on the longs ha ha ha


----------



## Uncle Festivus

OK, I'd better go & hibernate for winter then


----------



## wayneL

There is only one fundamental... interest rates.

There could be Great Depression II on the streets, but so long as there is a chance that % is going down, Dow goes KERPOW.

Earnings etc are irrelevant.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Uncle Festivus said:


> OK, I'd better go & hibernate for winter then




There is nothing wrong with going against the flow.It only makes a stronger swimmer.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> There is nothing wrong with going against the flow.It only makes a stronger swimmer



Well I've got financial pecs like Thorpy then.

I'm never going to short again. There, that should do it, watch it tank now.
Seriously, what would make the market move up 100 points like that, or are we really only half way there, and the maestros really have it beaten?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Uncle Festivus said:


> Wel I've got financial pecs like Thorpy then.
> 
> I'm never going to short again. There, that should do it, watch it tank now.
> Seriously, what would make the market move up 100 points like that, or are we really only half way there, and the maestros really have it beaten?





Oh don`t feel alone...I have always been able to run fast but the powers that be put me in a marathon.


----------



## Edwood

oo-er those shorts are a bit tight!

mind you Wayne have a look at SPX & NDX - not participating in the tom-foolery - I am beginning to see what you mean now, Dow is totally manipulated

excuse the font, copied & I can't be arsed fixing it

"if your editor has learned anything in four decades of following the markets, it is that there are huge incentives to mislead investors. the many scandals of the last decade are not the only examples. even the very indexes that seemingly portray great gains in wealth are sometimes capable of illusions. take the dow industrials, for instance. statistics making the rounds on the internet recently illustrate that the index is not particularly accurate. on april 26th, as the dow made a new all-time closing high of 13,105, only four dow issues made new all-time highs while only 11 made new 52-week highs. however, 13 issues were down an average of 40.5$ from their all-time highs
 and all 30 as a group were down an average of 26.7$ from their all-time
highs and down 3.2$ from their 52- week highs. sounds unlikely for an
all-time record high, right? how in heaven's name is this possible?
the dow is a price weighted average of the 30 issues. at one point, the computation was quite simple. tally the sum of the 30 issues and divide by 30. however, as splits occurred over the decades, the divisor grew progressively smaller and is now .123. in other words, if a $50 dow stock gains one point, the dow will rise 8.13 points (1 divided by .123). thus, we now sum point gains (or losses) for the day and divide by .123 to determine the daily change. trouble is, in a price weighted computation, all stocks are not created equal. far from equal. ibm at 102 has close to five times the impact of intel at 21.  ¢onsequently,
price gains in ibm far outweigh equal percentage losses in intel. in fact, if
ibm were to rise by 10$ and intel were to fall by 10$ from current levels,
the dow would enjoy a net gain of 65.85 points. if instead, ibm were to decline by 10$ while intel rose a commensurate 10$, the dow would suffer a 65.85 point loss. if this makes any sense, we'll eat this newsletter. perhaps if ibm were many times the size of intel, the computation would have some logic in its favor but the difference in size is not meaningful. ibm's market cap is
$153 billion and intel's is $125 billion. for all intents and purposes,
they are equal players."


----------



## Edwood

morning - phew!!  thankful for baggy shorts, everything intact - a case of betty swallocks during that Dow rise last night mind!!

so we have an 80pt selling spike setting up on Dow, SPX looks to have posted a double top around 1,513 but didn't make new highs, and Nasdaq no-where near recent highs during that idiotic Dow rally....

anyone willing to bet that we've seen a top?


----------



## bean

Edwood said:


> morning - phew!!  thankful for baggy shorts, everything intact - a case of betty swallocks during that Dow rise last night mind!!
> 
> so we have an 80pt selling spike setting up on Dow, SPX looks to have posted a double top around 1,513 but didn't make new highs, and Nasdaq no-where near recent highs during that idiotic Dow rally....
> 
> anyone willing to bet that we've seen a top?




NASDAQ set up for a very large down day.


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> morning - phew!!  thankful for baggy shorts, everything intact - a case of betty swallocks during that Dow rise last night mind!!
> 
> so we have an 80pt selling spike setting up on Dow, SPX looks to have posted a double top around 1,513 but didn't make new highs, and Nasdaq no-where near recent highs during that idiotic Dow rally....
> 
> anyone willing to bet that we've seen a top?



In a rational world yes. But in this world... up is down etc.... who knows


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Wysiwyg said:


> There is nothing wrong with going against the flow.It only makes a stronger swimmer.




Or you drown twice as quick!


----------



## Edwood

Dow now around 1,000pts above its 200ma on daily view

this from Spain re: their national account

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...ILS&grid=&xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> Dow now around 1,000pts above its 200ma on daily view
> 
> this from Spain re: their national account
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...ILS&grid=&xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml




That must have sent the Madrid index into blue sky territory


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:


> In a rational world yes. But in this world... up is down etc.... who knows




From the new wires this morning:



> "We seem to be in a period of time where it doesn't make a difference what the news is -- the market seems to find a reason to go up," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management. "How long will this last? It's anybody's guess."




 Well at least we're not the only ones who noticed lol!

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Yes, maybe there should be a thread for the Global Property Bust

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=150699&postcount=64

Slightly bullish for gold!



> Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally.






> The current account deficit has reached 9.5pc of GDP, a sign of extreme over-heating. Spain is now the second biggest net contributor to global demand after the US, far outstripping China, astonishing for a country of only 40 million still living in the shadows of the Franco regime a generation ago.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> it sure has turned around up 20 point now from 27 down.
> 
> but sorry guys i am still with a correction even if it dose close and hold over 12400 i bet i will be saying this for the next month while it goes up and up!
> 
> I believe in Gann and prices love to pull back to the 1x1






* DOW JONES

What did I tell you guys as soon as a posted that it made new highs!*

Well it is way off its line I am not in till we have a pull back.


----------



## professor_frink

How's this for scary. Below is a 5 tick chart for the HSI. Nice steady uptrend, then someone hit the panic button- 3 seconds later and it's lost 50 points 

Even scarier for me- I was still long 1 minute before that happened 

They would have heard the swearing in Hong Kong if I had been caught up in that


----------



## CanOz

I noticed that too Prof, i had the Asian indexes up and i had to do a double take as it dropped so quickly...Everything down in Asia today...metal prices maybe.

Cheers,


----------



## Uncle Festivus

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices took a downturn in opening trade following yesterday's record close, as comments by Cheung Kong and Hutchison chairman Li Ka-shing came into play and sparked profit-taking among cautious investors, dealers said. 
  Li Ka-shing said he was 'worried' over the high PE ratio in China's stock markets, urging investors to take caution when trading on the mainland.


----------



## Edwood

well US didn't seem too bothered about Asian developments

weekly view of Dow, starting to look like Shanghai!


----------



## hacheln_mice

I'm sometimes amazed by the accuracy of fibonacci numbers in the greater scheme of things.


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> well US didn't seem too bothered about Asian developments



Why would it? Remember, up is down, war is peace, black is white, bad news is good news.  

Interesting piece from Mick Shedlock:



> *Mispricing Risk / Conflict of Interest*
> from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis by Michael Shedlock
> There were two very interesting posts on May 17th by John Succo on Minyanville about risk. The first is called Don't Confuse Risk Taking With Value.
> 
> I haven’t had much to say lately. Just more of the same. With money growth my firm estimates at an egregious 14% (compared to a falling GDP now quoted in the 1-2% range, we can safely say that the money is becoming more and more anemic in producing growth), no wonder speculation in stocks and other assets is unabashedly high, along with risk. But I don’t confuse risk taking with value and I hope you don’t either.
> 
> I have suspected for a long time that government “intervention” or “participation” (or whatever you want to call it) in private asset markets is as high as it has ever been. The markets are just not acting “naturally” to me. They seem orchestrated in many ways. Why? With the levels of debt in the system (we have no historical reference), central banks must keep asset prices rising so that the debt doesn’t look so bad on balance sheets. To keep the public and corporate sectors borrowing, they have to have rising collateral. Governments are becoming a larger part of the real economy with their debt creation. Free money means lower returns for everyone.
> 
> One piece of evidence is something strange going on in option pricing. If governments are buying risky assets like stocks, they wouldn’t buy individual stocks, they would buy indexes. Any rally in stock markets would be led by index buying, not from the bottom up where investors buy individual stocks because they see fundamentals improving. Option prices are saying that is exactly what is happening.
> 
> .... Normally correlations fall as stocks rise because healthy rallies are created from the bottom up; normally correlations rise as stocks fall because corrections are caused more by macro events like recessions that affect all stocks.
> 
> .... Recently we are seeing correlations creep up as the market grinds higher. This is quite unusual.
> 
> .... The reason correlations are creeping up is that the rally is not being led by investors buying individual stocks, it is being led by index buying. I see a large and unnatural buyer (the buyer wants to pay the highest price possible) in indexes every day. I suspect it is the Bank of China buying U.S. stocks with sterilized trade dollars.
> 
> Stocks that want to go down because investors deem the fundamentals deteriorating are eventually dragged up with the rest of the market because of the index buying. Index buying infers that participants just want exposure to stocks regardless of fundamentals.
> 
> This increases risk. When trade slows down (as it is), there will be less trade dollars to recycle. When debt gets too high there will be less sterilization and lending to buy stocks.
> 
> Conflict of Interest
> 
> The second article from Professor Succo was called I Knew It Was Bad, But….
> 
> I asked a large broker firm to send over its smartest math person on Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) structuring. I wanted to know what I am missing: why is the market so sanguine in the face of deteriorating collateral values in the mortgage market? One of my firm's theses has been that, as the mortgage market deteriorates, investors holding CDO as an investment would realize losses and this would feed into other risky asset classes. Why aren’t losses being seen when the market is clearly deteriorating?
> 
> The team that came over was headed by a very smart gentleman. He was very good at math and very straightforward. Working for a broker I was prepared for some sugar coating. I didn’t get any.
> 
> The answer is simple and scary: conflict of interest.
> 
> He explained that due to the many layers of today's complicated credit products, the assumptions used to dictate the pricing and outcome of CDO are extremely subjective. The process is so subjective in fact that in order to make the market work an “impartial” pricing mechanism must exist that the entire market relies upon. Enter the credit agencies. They use their models, which are not sensitive to current or expected economic activity, but are based almost entirely on past and current default rates and cash flow to price the risk. This of course raises two issues.
> 
> First, it is questionable whether "recent" experienced losses over the last few years really represent the worst of the credit market (conservative). But even more importantly, it raises a huge conflict of interest: the credit agency's customers are the very issuers of the tranches they rate. The credit agencies, therefore, need to compete for business based at least in part on the ratings they are willing to give these tranches. As a result, they will only downgrade when forced to by experienced losses; not rising default rates, not a worsening economy, but only actual, experienced losses. Even more disturbing, they will be most reluctant to downgrade the riskiest tranches (the equity tranches) since those continue to be owned by the issuers even after the deal is sold.
> 
> So even though the mortgage market has deteriorated substantially, mark-to-market losses by those holding the CDO paper have generally not been realized simply because the rating agencies have not changed their ratings for all the above reasons. Accounting rules only require holders of the paper to mark prices according to the accepted model, not actual prices.
> 
> Actual prices where traders can really buy and sell is substantially lower than where investors are marking their positions. The levels at which investors are carrying the paper is not reflecting underlying reality as the holders simply hold their collective breath and the rating agencies ignore a worsening environment.
> 
> I asked them what would force the rating agencies to change their ratings and the response was “it's just a matter of time if the market continues to deteriorate, for the agencies at some point will be forced by the cumulative losses to acquiesce." Because these losses have been compressed, any re-adjusting of ratings by these agencies are likely to result in a massive repricing of risk.
> 
> Previously I talked about rating agencies in Cozy Relationships & Improprieties and Moody's in Wonderland. These two posts from Professor Succo lend more evidence to the idea that all is not what it seems.
> 
> Although we can see what is happening, there is no one alive that can say exactly when this will matter. However, we can say three things for sure.
> 
> 1. Massive losses in CDOs (and conflicts of interest) can not be hidden forever.
> 2. The current trends in leverage, risk, and consumer debt are all unsustainable.
> 3. The longer things continue on the current path, the worse the eventual outcome.
> 
> Mike Shedlock / Mish
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
> Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/ to learn more about wealth management for investors seeking strong performance with low volatility.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> Why would it? Remember, up is down, war is peace, black is white, bad news is good news.
> 
> Interesting piece from Mick Shedlock:




Wayne, I didn't think this would eventuate so swiftly as stage 2 of the bull. Now looking like flipping into stage 3, the irrational mania stage. Classic signs everywhere now eg bears capitulating, otherwise bad data being ignored, etc.
Hold on for the ride!

The disconnection from reality and 'head in the sand' mentality. Will it be a waterfall event or can the powers keep it going?



> The levels at which investors are carrying the paper is not reflecting underlying reality as the holders simply hold their collective breath and the rating agencies ignore a worsening environment.





> 2. The current trends in leverage, risk, and consumer debt are all unsustainable.
> 3. The longer things continue on the current path, the worse the eventual outcome.


----------



## Edwood

this could give the markets another boost...

"China's new state investment firm on Sunday said it plans to make a $US3 billion investment in the Blackstone Group, one of the most prominent and powerful US private equity firms. China's soon-to-be-established foreign exchange investment company would make the investment in the form of nonvoting common units of Blackstone, a firm that has been at the forefront of a global boom in mergers and acquisitions. China announced in March it was setting up a vehicle to help diversify part of its $US1.202 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, to improve returns and diversify risk. State media have said the new agency could manage up to $US200 billion, although some Chinese economists have called for twice that amount to be at its disposal.
"This is a very, very significant move and it symbolizes that China believes in America," said Frank Holmes, chief executive of US Global Investors Inc.
"We are talking about a very sophisticated country. This is an excellent strategy for them to bring their dollars back into America."


----------



## Edwood

and on the other hand...

Shanghai rise for anyone wot likes fibbernarrrrchi, is now 13 weeks long since the last 'buyers dip'....


----------



## nizar

Edwood said:


> this could give the markets another boost...
> 
> "China's new state investment firm on Sunday said it plans to make a $US3 billion investment in the Blackstone Group, one of the most prominent and powerful US private equity firms. China's soon-to-be-established foreign exchange investment company would make the investment in the form of nonvoting common units of Blackstone, a firm that has been at the forefront of a global boom in mergers and acquisitions. China announced in March it was setting up a vehicle to help diversify part of its $US1.202 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, to improve returns and diversify risk. State media have said the new agency could manage up to $US200 billion, although some Chinese economists have called for twice that amount to be at its disposal.
> "This is a very, very significant move and it symbolizes that China believes in America," said Frank Holmes, chief executive of US Global Investors Inc.
> "We are talking about a very sophisticated country. This is an excellent strategy for them to bring their dollars back into America."




Can i get a source please?


----------



## Edwood

hi Nizar - Marketwatch earlier - also mentioned in here on the same site

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={8A33FEBD-6BFC-49FC-84B6-0AA426EA918F}

Ed


----------



## Edwood

Chinese stocks hit record high 

Chinese stocks rose to a fresh record high for the second day in a row on Tuesday, as property developers jumped on expectations for a stronger yuan and robust housing demand.

The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.9 percent to 4,110.38, breaking above 4,100 for the first time. The Shenzhen Composite Index climbed 1.4 percent to 1,198.41, also a record high.

Foreign currency-denominated "B shares" fell on profit-taking, capping the overall market's gain. Shanghai B-share Index slumped *6.9 percent *to 340.47 and Shenzhen B-share Index dropped 1.5 percent to 737.02, both hit by profit-taking.


----------



## Edwood

from another bb.....  sorry not really 'trading' related at all, but interesting fundamental info nonetheless


The Chinese now have 50% of Fannie and Freddie's mortgages, which account for 70% of the US mortgage market. So they have 35% so far. I wonder if it's common knowledge in the US that the Chinese own 35% of all US homes that have mortgages on them? 

Now apparently they are starting a $200 billion fund to buy up US Firms/Stocks.


----------



## nizar

Edwood said:


> from another bb.....  sorry not really 'trading' related at all, but interesting fundamental info nonetheless
> 
> 
> The Chinese now have 50% of Fannie and Freddie's mortgages, which account for 70% of the US mortgage market. So they have 35% so far. I wonder if it's common knowledge in the US that the Chinese own 35% of all US homes that have mortgages on them?
> 
> Now apparently they are starting a $200 billion fund to buy up US Firms/Stocks.




The Chinese have US$1.2trillion to spend.
I have been waiting for this diversification since early last year.
I think its all over for USD.

I wish i had some connects there so i could get them to put a few mil into each of my stocks LOL 
(including a takeover bid for BLZ at 50cps! )


----------



## Edwood

nizar said:


> The Chinese have US$1.2trillion to spend.
> I have been waiting for this diversification since early last year.
> I think its all over for USD.
> 
> I wish i had some connects there so i could get them to put a few mil into each of my stocks LOL
> (including a takeover bid for BLZ at 50cps! )




Cannaussieuk is in China, PM him!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Edwood said:


> from another bb.....  sorry not really 'trading' related at all, but interesting fundamental info nonetheless
> 
> 
> The Chinese now have 50% of Fannie and Freddie's mortgages, which account for 70% of the US mortgage market. So they have 35% so far. I wonder if it's common knowledge in the US that the Chinese own 35% of all US homes that have mortgages on them?
> 
> Now apparently they are starting a $200 billion fund to buy up US Firms/Stocks.




Edwood, where did out find this info?


----------



## Edwood

Uncle Festivus said:


> Edwood, where did out find this info?




Hi Uncle Festivus - from a UK site I've subscribed to for a couple of years.  The stat came out of a Wall St Examiner article on 9th May which one of the members posted.

"The rate of growth in their GSE holdings is now an astounding 12.7% quarterly (not annual!). The FCBs (_Ed - Foreign Central Banks_) continue to subsidize the US housing market and US consumption by buying Fannie paper, keeping mortgage rates artificially low. They now hold $702 billion of GSE debt, which is equivalent to 49% of Fannie and Freddie's retained portfolios. $458 billion of that was acquired since October 2004, when Fannie publicly admitted its problems. Half of your mortgage payments are now going to the Bank of China. Given the current precarious state of the US real estate market, and ongoing questions about the financial health of the GSEs, it would seem that the FCBs have no concern about the level of risk they are building. The problem they face now is that all of this apparently deliberate pumping is no longer working as the housing market continues to decline, and consumer spending begins to moderate. One can only wonder what their ultimate motivation might be. FCBs and other indirect bidders have been cutting back on their auction participation. These cuts could be ominous signals. This week they cut $11 billion from known rollovers. They'll probably add some of that back in the 5 and 10 year notes, but this is an unusually large cut."


----------



## Edwood

the phrase "got 'em by the short-n-curlies" springs to mind


----------



## wayneL

A quantum shift in power afoot?

Seems so.

My old man always told me to learn Chinese. I thought he was bonkers... but I never thought the west would hand economic power to the Chinese on a silver platter either.


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> A quantum shift in power afoot?
> 
> Seems so.
> 
> My old man always told me to learn Chinese. I thought he was bonkers... but I never thought the west would hand economic power to the Chinese on a silver platter either.




yep they've duffed it alright.  but only have themselves to blame for getting into so much debt in the first place - the instant gratification, plasma TV, SUV, McDonalds, war-mongering culture is going to bite them all in the 4rse.

started learning Mandarin when I lived in Sydney in 1996 Wayne but stopped unfortunately.  a long-haired dictionary might've helped :


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> a long-haired dictionary might've helped :





 

Sometimes i wish my GF spoke less english so i had to learn more mandarin!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Sometimes i wish my GF spoke less english so i had to learn more mandarin!
> 
> Cheers,




lol!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Edwood said:


> the phrase "got 'em by the short-n-curlies" springs to mind




Yes, but who has who? It could be a brilliant play by the Americans to get some of that 1.2 trillion back (by the way, evaporating to the tune of 10% a year or so) knowing full well that what they are selling the Chinese is essentially worthless, being paid for with essentially worthless US dollars. Other CB's already know this, so the Chinese can't be that stupid, could they???


----------



## Edwood

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, but who has who? It could be a brilliant play by the Americans to get some of that 1.2 trillion back (by the way, evaporating to the tune of 10% a year or so) knowing full well that what they are selling the Chinese is essentially worthless, being paid for with essentially worthless US dollars. Other CB's already know this, so the Chinese can't be that stupid, could they???




could just be some mutual back-scratching going on until China are ready to cut them loose.  I guess we'll just have to wait & see how they invest their fund - I reckon they'll go for commodities & commodity producers fwiw but wtfdik!


----------



## Edwood

sent you a PM Uncle


----------



## Edwood

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


----------



## Edwood

should be in for a good evening in Europe...


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> should be in for a good evening in Europe...



Greedscams comments should be ancient history by this evening in the US too. Back to discounting risk....

The irrationality of the markets is comical at times


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> Greedscams comments should be ancient history by this evening in the US too. Back to discounting risk....
> 
> The irrationality of the markets is comical at times




ah - its all rigged I reckon Wayne.  how you getting on?  Am flat again now, has been a good day tho.  Appears China had a bit of a pasting behind the scenes today, plus increasing volume on a down day...


SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - B-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed lower after the market regulator issued another warning about market risks, dealers said.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission yesterday issued its second warning in a month on stock market risk, urging securities houses to step up their investor education programs in order to ensure that retail investors act prudently.

The Shanghai B-share Index was down 25.79 points to 297.57 on turnover of 4.26 bln usd and the Shenzhen B-share Index was down 32.80 points at 711.17 on turnover of 2.51 bln hkd.

"The hard currency markets were under heavy selling as investors locked in their gains after the new warning on market risk," a Shanghai analyst said.

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co Ltd (SHB 900948) fell by its 10 pct daily limit to 4.835 usd.

Jiangsu Xincheng Real Estate Co Ltd (SHB 900950) was down 10 pct at 3.037 usd. Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Co Ltd (SHB 900918; SHA 600819) was down 10 pct at 1.299 usd.

On the Shenzhen B-share market, Shandong Airlines Co Ltd (SZB 200152) was down 0.57 hkd or 9.34 pct at 5.53.

Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development (SZB 200429; SZA 000429) was down 0.54 hkd or 6.98 pct at 7.20. Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (SZB 200625; SZA 000625), a partner of Ford Motor, was down 0.80 hkd or 7.58 pct at 9.75.

The FTSE/Xinhua China B 35 Index was down 583.82 points at 9,785.07.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A- and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed down 22.58 points, or 0.54 pct, at 4,151.13 after moving between 4,089.39 and 4,208.39.

Turnover rose to 251.63 bln yuan from 219.31 bln in the previous session.


----------



## Edwood

Dax also about cooked - the tender timer has popped


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> ah - its all rigged I reckon Wayne.  how you getting on?  Am flat again now, has been a good day tho.  Appears China had a bit of a pasting behind the scenes today, plus increasing volume on a down day...



Yer my FXI was machine gunned to pieces.

I'm gonna hold some Index futs over night... maybe the a**hole dip-buyers have had enough of a fright to stay the hell away 

A remarkable day for the bears, collaring a ~60 pt gain pushing the bulls into the mud and stomping on the back of their head as they went through.... I sense revenge LOL


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Sometimes i wish my GF spoke less english so i had to learn more mandarin!
> 
> Cheers,




I agree with that Can,

Have had a Chinese G/F for 2.5 years now also have zero skills in speaking mandarin.



Here is one of my all time jokes! 

You don't speak mandarin, you eat mandarin!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:


> Yer my FXI was machine gunned to pieces.
> 
> I'm gonna hold some Index futs over night... maybe the a**hole dip-buyers have had enough of a fright to stay the hell away
> 
> A remarkable day for the bears, collaring a ~60 pt gain pushing the bulls into the mud and stomping on the back of their head as they went through.... I sense revenge LOL




Wayne,

I notice on your post times you don't sleep to much!


----------



## nizar

Trade_It said:


> Wayne,
> 
> I notice on your post times you don't sleep to much!




Money never sleeps!


----------



## Edwood

hard luck on the FXI Wayne - sure you made up for it tho!   that'll teach you to go long

Asia holding up nicely really, well no dramas yet.  currently long ASX and Dow looking for some retrace, stop at evens on ASX, looks to be heading for a gap fill


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DJIA - Is this looking ominous or a buying opportunity?. From my limited TA skills it looks like a megaphone top, which would be bearish?
Volume too.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Here is one of my all time jokes!

You don't speak mandarin, you eat mandarin!

no one liked my joke! My G/F is right, maybe it does suck!


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> Here is one of my all time jokes!
> 
> You don't speak mandarin, you eat mandarin!
> 
> no one liked my joke! My G/F is right, maybe it does suck!




smart girl


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> Here is one of my all time jokes!
> 
> You don't speak mandarin, you eat mandarin!
> 
> no one liked my joke! My G/F is right, maybe it does suck!




I had a chuckle!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

Uncle Festivus said:


> DJIA - Is this looking ominous or a buying opportunity?. From my limited TA skills it looks like a megaphone top, which would be bearish?
> Volume too.




Hi Uncle - and long tails on the candles.  heres the one that broke down last night.  could still be bought up but you'd have to think chances are now good we'll get some follow-through


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> I had a chuckle!
> 
> Cheers,




Thought you would appreciate it Can.

Dow is past first trend fair way down to next trend support.

One more red day needed on wall st to confirm this as a sell off?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> smart girl




Quite don't let her hear that!


----------



## Edwood

doo-doo da doo-doo-doo.....



May 22, 2007 (EIRNS)””A real estate investment and analysis firm, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, said on May 21 that it is "going public with our concerns" that the national sales information for both new and existing homes, is misleading and covering up a deep plunge of the housing sector. "The housing market has softened much more than is being reported" by the Fed, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says JBREC.

The firm reports that having purchased and compiled actual home sale closing data for 55% of the country, it finds existing-home sales down, not 9% as NAR reports, but: 22% in May 2006-April 2007, compared to May 2005-April 2006; and much more than that on a simple year-to-year comparison of the past couple of months. It found that existing-home sales have fallen every bit as much as the new-home sales of the biggest homebuilders D.R. Horton and Lennar, which are down 37% and 27%. It found that home brokerage transactions by Realogy Corp., the nation's biggest realtor company which owns Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA, fell 18% from 2005 to 2006. And that mortgage applications for home purchase have fallen 18%, even though many buyers now have to fill out several applications in order to get a mortgage.


----------



## Edwood

nicked from another bb from a gentleman called Easytimes - reaction of Dax over last 10 years when price got to 35% or > above 200ma.  currently at 35% - if we hit 8,000 gap % will be at the same level as 1987, 1998 and 2000


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I am a little lost on the dow right now not quite sure what to make of it.

some minor support at 13 474. It is looking like its starting to band but a break either way right now is possible.

Just a real wait and see.


----------



## Edwood

yes hard to say Trade-It - as you say if unsure best to wait.  looking toppy with those long-shadowed candles tho....


"Hank (Pat) Paulson Snubs Prime Madame

by Lee Wheeler

Apparently Hank “Pat” Paulson’s meeting with Madame Wu didn’t go over so well.

According to Washington insider Steve Clemons, “Paulson just about did everything wrong but spit on Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi.”
“Maybe Paulson had a reasonable beef with what was happening behind closed doors in the sessions attempting to coordinate broad strategic economic policy””particularly currencies. But Paulson should know that you don’t just let the world know that you can barely stand being in the same room with your negotiating partner.”

“After more than 70 trips to China during his life, Paulson can’t really get away with an ‘I was tired’ or ‘I didn’t understand that anyone would be upset that I began my formal statement when Wu Yi hadn’t even walked in the room yet.’ He knows China too well. He understands the importance of nuance. But again””maybe Paulson was just pissed off by something really, really big.”

Clemons also links to a piece from another Washington insider Chris Nelson:

“Paulson plays the rude card against Chinese.”

“Barring some major breakthrough at the JCCT, it doesn’t sound like there will be any point in meeting again, as scheduled, in December.”

“Paulson, the guy with 72 private trips to China, who told the White House that he would be the ‘China Guy’ in this Administration…at the closing press conference, Paulson stalked in, well ahead of Wu Yi, then started reading his statement before she even reached the podium.”

“Excuse me? An American or European would have cold-cocked the President for such calculated rudeness. You think for one minute that elderly maiden lady Wu Yi didn’t catch the insult? Are you telling us Paulson didn’t mean it, that he was so focused on reading his prepared statement he didn’t think? NONSENSE. This was a calculated act of rudeness which told everyone in the room, and anyone watching on TV, that a major failure had taken place.”

Will be ineresting to see if China makes a near-term economic “go eff yourself” gesture to Paulson and the U.S."


----------



## professor_frink

Been some pretty impressive selloffs this morning in Asia- nikkei has lost over 200 from it's morning highs


----------



## Sean K

professor_frink said:


> Been some pretty impressive selloffs this morning in Asia- nikkei has lost over 200 from it's morning highs



I'm surprised our market hasn't preempted the probable China sell off today. Maybe just a ripple like Feb perhaps, but surely a good excuse to take some money off the table?


----------



## professor_frink

kennas said:


> I'm surprised our market hasn't preempted the probable China sell off today. Maybe just a ripple like Feb perhaps, but surely a good excuse to take some money off the table?




We had over half a percent selloff from the intraday highs, and it may not be over yet. But I wouldn't be too worried bout a feb28 type selloff just yet. Maybe if it carries on for the rest of the day, there could be a few edgy investors out there near the close


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Wall st futures down 76 on IG at the moment.

Maybe just maybe this is our correction.


----------



## reece55

Trade_It said:


> Wall st futures down 76 on IG at the moment.
> 
> Maybe just maybe this is our correction.




So much for that correction.........

DOW only down 11 points, recovering well so far......

A lot of action to go b4 the close though......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Kauri

Fomc minutes in I think about 31/2 hours may have a bigger influence than China???


----------



## Edwood

hi chaps!  good to see you all over here 

wicked range today on Dax - I'm converted, never looking at FTSE again!

shorted the drop & unfortunately closed a long before I went to bed - never mind, am sure we'l setting up for more shorts before too long


----------



## Edwood

good chart on China...

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


----------



## >Apocalypto<

reece55 said:


> So much for that correction.........
> 
> DOW only down 11 points, recovering well so far......
> 
> A lot of action to go b4 the close though......
> 
> Cheers
> Reece





I said maybe just maybe reeceie boy!

I can only go on what the chart and pre open tells me!


----------



## Edwood

mate its easy to make a wrong call with these markets - wicked range - so long as you're on the right side of it!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> mate its easy to make a wrong call with these markets - wicked range - so long as you're on the right side of it!




The question is now, is there a long on the Dow or not.

Elwood I don't call it being wrong, all you can do is make your opinion from what is being presented at that moment. If that moves in the oppersite direction to what you first thought then you must evolve with it. The markets are wonderful things!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I have opened a long on the dow,

It has broken resistance out of its fibb range and started to travel on a new short term 45 degree angle.

I am still weary but I can't ignore the push, 

For anyone really into tech analysis and charting I suggest you check out Magdorans post in Gold where's it heading. Just amazing!

See chart.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trade It, just watch that long closely mate, not good news. Getting close to negative GDP, 2 off a recession  They may be already into the first negative qtr now.



> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in the first quarter, held back by falling investments in homes, shrinking inventories and a larger trade gap, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The economy grew at a 0.6% annualized pace in the quarter, revised down from the initial estimate of 1.3%, the government said in its second estimate of quarterly gross domestic product. It was the slowest growth since late 2002. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting GDP to be revised to 0.7%. Consumers continued to lead the way with strong gains in spending and income. The business sector, however, invested little and saw year-over-year profit growth fall to the lowest level of the five-year-old expansion. Economy-wide inflation surged at the fastest pace in 16 years, and core consumer inflation accelerated a bit above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone


----------



## reece55

Trade_It said:


> I said maybe just maybe reeceie boy!
> 
> I can only go on what the chart and pre open tells me!




Must have missed this one b4 Tradeit - I actually wasn't having a go at your comment, I was saying that even I expected some downside action, but instead it just boomed!

I think the US is now at a critical juncture - we will either see a terrific continuation of the uptrend or an almighty sell off...... I will not be taking any new longs here, but I wish you the best in your long mate... Technically, the trade is there.....

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

reece55 said:


> Must have missed this one b4 Tradeit - I actually wasn't having a go at your comment, I was saying that even I expected some downside action, but instead it just boomed!
> 
> I think the US is now at a critical juncture - we will either see a terrific continuation of the uptrend or an almighty sell off...... I will not be taking any new longs here, but I wish you the best in your long mate... Technically, the trade is there.....
> 
> Cheers




No worries Reece.

I am with you on that Reece, flat last night I also thik that it will have to make it's mind up. I am still 50/50 as well, I have a thightish stop on my long, currently not in profit but I will give it a day or so.

I have also heard some talk about MBL's internal spending habits not a great sign.


----------



## Edwood

what is going on with the Dax?? nearly up 300pts now in the last 3 days! amazing strength


----------



## reece55

Trade_It said:


> No worries Reece.
> 
> I am with you on that Reece, flat last night I also thik that it will have to make it's mind up. I am still 50/50 as well, I have a thightish stop on my long, currently not in profit but I will give it a day or so.
> 
> I have also heard some talk about MBL's internal spending habits not a great sign.




Trade IT - still in that long Dow Jones, or did you close last night after a moderate 40 point rise???????

There was nice movement on all markets last night  -even the NASDAQ (which has been lagging) is now looking very nice...

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I am long, also now thinking about going long on the XJO very close now to confrimation.

opened 2 gold minis last night mayor strengh as well, AUD is also breaking out of its bearish channel.

things looking good.

I want to open another dow after a minor retracement.

this all seems strange but you can't ignore the charts!


----------



## Edwood

Dax


----------



## professor_frink

nice selloff on the H-shares this morning. It's off over 1.5% after being up nearly 1% not long after the open


----------



## Magdoran

This is certainly a turbulent time in the markets, but I still think the US market is bullish despite the marked bearish price action on the Shanghai composite.

US T Bonds look like they should try to rally from the current low, and if so, may temporarily halt the resultant increases in interest rates in the T bond market.

The S&P 500 and the Dow both look like they should have a brief and minor pause or pull back (suspect 1-4 trading days), and then I’d expect some kind of bullish rally.

This is where it gets difficult for me because I see two totally different cycles running through the US market in the daily charts, and both seem valid; hence this presents a challenge in terms of interpretation.

NASDAQ  - I’m still working on this, and this is a fresh interpretation of this index, but I can see 15 July as a key date, with 09 June (major) and 27 June (minor) as time increments (please see the attached chart), moving potentially to 2819.45, but could extend to 20 August.

S&P 500 - Current target is 07 July as a key date, 1603.57.  Please see attached chart.

The DOW chart attached is using a time cycle forecast by Bill Mclaren, and this is my interpretation based on his work for the price, hence I’m watching how the DOW trades into the 12 July.  It is possible for different cycles to be running concurrently hence this can add complexity to interpreting the potential effects of different cycles.

Overall, while these cycles are evident, I remain bullish on the US market.  (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).


Regards,


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

*DAX*

The DAX has reached a key date and found resistance (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information). 

I don’t know if this price action is some kind of a termination or not, or if the DAX will continue bullishly from here.  Judging by the pattern, the trend has been up for a long time, and the pattern while exhaustive, perhaps blowing off, may well continue up after a consolidation or pull back into 06 September or even further into 12 October.   A lot depends on the way the current price action plays out.

Assuming the cycle I have been using is correct, this is a point where I would expect at least a halt in the bullish drive here, maybe into the June 08 increment to find support, but may pull back further.  The weaker the counter trend at this point, the stronger the DAX is rallying.  If nothing much happens here, this will say a lot about the strength of the bullish trend.



Regards,


Magdoran


----------



## professor_frink

Thanks for your analysis Mag

Interesting stuff as per usual


----------



## CanOz

The German mid50, taking a pissling....

Wall St. on S1 tonite....just dropped below as i type!

Seems like everything is starting to correct...or adjust...

Cheers,


----------



## kgee

yep watching the dow tonight...down 80 already


----------



## Magdoran

Magdoran said:


> This is certainly a turbulent time in the markets, but I still think the US market is bullish despite the marked bearish price action on the Shanghai composite.
> 
> US T Bonds look like they should try to rally from the current low, and if so, may temporarily halt the resultant increases in interest rates in the T bond market.
> 
> The S&P 500 and the Dow both look like they should have a brief and minor pause or pull back (suspect 1-4 trading days), and then I’d expect some kind of bullish rally.
> 
> This is where it gets difficult for me because I see two totally different cycles running through the US market in the daily charts, and both seem valid; hence this presents a challenge in terms of interpretation.
> 
> NASDAQ  - I’m still working on this, and this is a fresh interpretation of this index, but I can see 15 July as a key date, with 09 June (major) and 27 June (minor) as time increments (please see the attached chart), moving potentially to 2819.45, but could extend to 20 August.
> 
> S&P 500 - Current target is 07 July as a key date, 1603.57.  Please see attached chart.
> 
> The DOW chart attached is using a time cycle forecast by Bill Mclaren, and this is my interpretation based on his work for the price, hence I’m watching how the DOW trades into the 12 July.  It is possible for different cycles to be running concurrently hence this can add complexity to interpreting the potential effects of different cycles.
> 
> Overall, while these cycles are evident, I remain bullish on the US market.  (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).
> 
> 
> Regards,
> 
> 
> Magdoran



Woops, this was meant to read 12 JUNE, not July.


----------



## Edwood

'good' place for the Dax to bounce


----------



## Edwood

bugger - I see Europe & US got a spanking - not a great week to catch a cold off the kids, been knackered & not be able to stay up for the late sessions 

oh well should be plenty of volatility  have taken a small long on the Dax, stop at evens


----------



## wayneL

At least things are getting interesting again


----------



## Edwood

(early) morning Wayne   yes its nice to see there is more than 1 direction in the market!

gutted about missing these moves, but not bovvered there should be plenty more to come!  anything specific you're focusing on?


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> (early) morning Wayne   yes its nice to see there is more than 1 direction in the market!
> 
> gutted about missing these moves, but not bovvered there should be plenty more to come!  anything specific you're focusing on?



The usual suspects for indecies (Naz, SP500) but to be honest I was waiting for the cavalry to turn up so missed a huge chunk of this.

Could the cavalry finally be out of bullets? .... interesting moves in the bond markets eh?


----------



## theasxgorilla

wayneL said:


> The usual suspects for indecies (Naz, SP500) but to be honest I was waiting for the cavalry to turn up so missed a huge chunk of this.
> 
> Could the cavalry finally be out of bullets? .... interesting moves in the bond markets eh?




Hmmm...looks serious on the chart.


----------



## wayneL

theasxgorilla said:


> Hmmm...looks serious on the chart.



Certainly does.

The US retail muppet is expecting interest rate cuts soon, bond traders think otherwise.

As the ONLY fundamental under consideration at the moment in the US (This whole rally was fed pause inspired ) is interest rates , a raise in official rates would seriously take out the froth... presumably.


----------



## Edwood

was sent this o/night Wayne - appears we could be going a lot higher yet, also have a weekly view which suggests we have been base building...


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> was sent this o/night Wayne - appears we could be going a lot higher yet, also have a weekly view which suggests we have been base building...




Could Ben Bareknuckles have perpetuated a fraud on the US and world public by "intimating" rates could go lower, thereby pumping the SM? I mean blind freakin' Freddy knew that the inflation figures were a manipulated fabrication and that inflation was slowly getting a grip on the economy... or dare we mention "stagflation" again?


----------



## Edwood

LOL!

sheesh I didn't realise stagflation looked that scary!!!


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> LOL!
> 
> sheesh I didn't realise stagflation looked that scary!!!




I wonder if depressflation is possible.

Recession + inflation... that would be a corker.


----------



## Magdoran

wayneL said:


> The usual suspects for indecies (Naz, SP500) but to be honest I was waiting for the cavalry to turn up so missed a huge chunk of this.
> 
> Could the cavalry finally be out of bullets? .... interesting moves in the bond markets eh?



I had exactly the same perspective as Wayne on the US Bond market.

McLaren has been calling for T Bonds to tank recently well before last night's price action.  I expected a brief rally attempt then the fall, hence my timing on the US market was to see a terminal rally into a blow off high.  

The move down in bonds (raising interest rates) happened much faster and much more strongly than I was expecting.  I’m still not sure if there will be an attempt to fill the gap (and would suspect that the more likely scenario is that if there is such an attempt, that it will halt, and the bearish price action continue).

With the recent price action it is hard to tell if this is a significant bearish move in the early stages, or a pull back to wash out the sellers before a strong drive.  I really don’t know.

I tend to be persuaded by McLaren’s recent report on US Bonds that this may be the start of a sustained long term move down in bond prices (effectively raising interest rates).  See the link below:


http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/art...ay-30-2007-CNBC-Power-Lunch-Report/Page1.html




Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wayneL

Magdoran said:


> I had exactly the same perspective as Wayne on the US Bond market.
> 
> McLaren has been calling for T Bonds to tank recently well before last night's price action.  I expected a brief rally attempt then the fall, hence my timing on the US market was to see a terminal rally into a blow off high.
> 
> The move down in bonds (raising interest rates) happened much faster and much more strongly than I was expecting.  I’m still not sure if there will be an attempt to fill the gap (and would suspect that the more likely scenario is that if there is such an attempt, that it will halt, and the bearish price action continue).
> 
> With the recent price action it is hard to tell if this is a significant bearish move in the early stages, or a pull back to wash out the sellers before a strong drive.  I really don’t know.
> 
> I tend to be persuaded by McLaren’s recent report on US Bonds that this may be the start of a sustained long term move down in bond prices (effectively raising interest rates).  See the link below:
> 
> 
> http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/art...ay-30-2007-CNBC-Power-Lunch-Report/Page1.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran



Another perspective on the interest rate conundrum is that  a lot of traditional support for the US dollar (By either pricing commodities in USD or buying bonds) (NB far from an expert here so forgive if cocked up) is evaporating around the world. Consequently he Fed may be forced to raise interest rates to attract bond buyers.

Maybe this is what bond traders are betting on?

As far as the SM... It wouldn't surprise me if the muppet dip buyers give this one more crack before facing reality. There is still a helluva lot of denial about. 

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

Oh nearly forgot!

There is at least one CB with balls... NZ just raised rates again.



> SNIP:
> 
> Mr Bollard has blamed "easy money" policies by world central banks for allowing a credit bubble to develop, made worse by the emergence of debt securities and derivatives.
> 
> "It has allowed less disciplined economic behaviour by households and firms. It has allowed global imbalances to build up and persist beyond what might have previously been considered sustainable.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/08/cnnz108.xml


----------



## Edwood

yes well unfortunately mine are getting squeezed as a result Wayne.   we're buying a house in Auckland & the rising rate is attracting carry trade + kiwi riding Aussie's coat tails meaning we're printing post float highs against USD, rapidly rising against sterling, and at the same time base rate is up to 8%!!    oh well, makes the hedging process a bit more interesting if nothing else


----------



## Edwood

looks to be getting ahead of itself


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> looks to be getting ahead of itself



It's worrying the SM too. Futures were up 30 earlier... now down nearly 30.


----------



## wayneL

Bonds staging a recovery and dip buyers active again before the open... we goin' green tonight IMO.


----------



## Magdoran

*DAX*


Last night's price action looks to me like the DAX has found some support, and would expect a brief rally from here, and then a retest of last night’s low.

There seems to have been a completion of sorts in the DAX in the 2nd harmonic cycle I’ve been working with resulting in a high on 02 June (please see the work in the Trading the SPI Gann techniques thread to get a full coverage of this campaign), and in isolation, the normal behaviour for such a completion is to either retrace into 08 July or 20 July to find support, or alternatively to extend up into these dates.  

This could also signal a longer term counter trend (perhaps to find support around 06 September) or even a trend reversal, but I’m not convinced this is the case yet (but still have to be open to this interpretation as a possibility which will become clearer as the DAX trends into the listed dates shown on the chart).

Since I have two valid cycles running, there is some ambiguity.  Hence my thoughts here are still embryonic.  But I recognise this is where some people who use this kind of time cycle analysis come unstuck by not taking into account all the relevant cycles sufficiently.

The last time I saw this kind of pattern, the underlying counter trended from the high and tested down to find support (in that case one third of the range up – for this drive it is around where it is now but could move a little further down after a brief rally), and then trended up into a major high (with an ending diagonal pattern). The pull back was sharp like this one while in a strong upward trend.  If this is the case, then I’d expect the DAX to make a significant high around 20 July (maybe 08 July). 

Now, I’ll put that more simply in English from the above paragraph – the pattern is to move sharply down (as it’s done), find support, and then trend into 20 July for a high.  Currently I’m favouring this as the most probable forecast with the current data.

The price action will tell a lot about what the DAX is likely to do.  If my estimation that the US indexes should complete their bullish legs in mid to late July, then the 20 July high or 08 July high scenario makes sense.  A lot depends on how the US markets trade.  Also, 25 October and 29 November may also be significant dates depending on how the index trades.  I will elaborate more on this later as the price action unfolds.


----------



## Edwood

interesting stuff Magdoran - there seem to be a few uncertainties in there - do you mind if I ask how you trade using your charts?  i.e., do you set limit orders / OCO's / straddles or something at turn points aiming to catch the move either way?


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> Bonds staging a recovery and dip buyers active again before the open... we goin' green tonight IMO.



Bonds back on the slippery slope before the pit open... and Dow futs of 40 before the bell as well.

Maybe next leg down from here?


----------



## Magdoran

Edwood said:


> interesting stuff Magdoran - there seem to be a few uncertainties in there - do you mind if I ask how you trade using your charts?  i.e., do you set limit orders / OCO's / straddles or something at turn points aiming to catch the move either way?



Hello Edwood,


Why not read through my various posts (good threads are the “Improving chart analysis” thread and the “Trading the SPI Gann techniques” thread) for a more comprehensive coverage of my style.

In most forecasting styles there is uncertainty necessarily built in to the projection where certain events either must happen to validate a plan or must not happen or they will invalidate a pattern.  Think about Elliott Wave, for the forecast to work, certain events must unfold in a specific way to validate the wave structure.  With cycles, it’s the same kind of thing in that the pattern must not be invalidated; hence criteria are established based on the analysis.

Exit on pattern criteria failure is calculated based on trying to exit on a favourable counter trend in your favour.  I usually also set partial exits to lock in profit usually on a date, sometimes at a price level, or both.

Often I’ll have a core option position with a longer time value, while trading ratio positions around it where I think a counter trend will occur.  Say if the core position is a set of long OTM options (say I was aiming to be long on the underlying these would be bought calls for example) with longevity, I may sell a ratio position into strength.

Essentially say on the 02 June for a long DAX position sell a set of calls deeper in the money but less of them than the OTM positions to form a ratio (maybe 2-3 strikes away from the OTM calls) as close to the money and preferably slightly in the money if possible with the maximum volatility I can get to extract the most amount of premium possible, and probably do this as a diagonal selling the front month if possible, or the next month out – preferably not the same expiry month of the long OTM calls in this case if I can help it, but can be done if the  risk to reward parameters are ok.

What I’m aiming to do is sell some slightly in the money calls at the high for 02 June, and continue to hold the OTM longs if I thought the index was going higher but was likely to pull back in the interim.  Selling the near the money calls means that a lot of time value and hopefully volatility will yield very good premium to both protect my OTM calls and hopefully set up a guaranteed profit in the process, but also leave the possibility open of still maintaining an unlimited long position due to the ratio – there being more long contracts open than short (although the short options of course are deeper in the money, but should have been sold with more premium).

The aim is to buy these sold calls back if the DAX pulls back, and do this on the day (and price if available) based on the technical analysis - in this case 08 June.  In this case the calls should have been bought back at a cheaper price then they were sold (probably around 80% of the value should have been wiped from these for this kind of move).  Hence the idea is to exceed the original purchase price for the OTM calls.  This kind of move probably netted at least double the initial outlay, but with the bought calls still worth most if not more than their original purchase price.

This allows another set of calls to be sold again at the next counter trend point in a diagonal ratio back spread if warranted.  If the underlying looks like failing here, then near the money calls can be sold, or the original OTM calls sold to wind out the trade.

This process can be repeated all the way up in a drive.  If the criteria is invalidated, then the position can be managed in a number of ways.  Say the pattern indicated a short was on, the way to manage the position may be to just sell the OTM calls, and enter OTM puts, or hold the OTM calls, and sell the same number of ITM calls.  As you can imagine there are a range of options open to deal with this.  The analysis should be able to project where and when to exit a net short position to take advantage of a bearish move in the underlying.  Of take partial profits, or if invalidated how to change the configuration to reflect a bullish outlook.  As you can imagine you can trade puts in the same way for bearish moves, or calls if this is the better selection.

Hope that made sense as this is easier to show visually on a chart or whiteboard real time, but I gather you probably got the gist.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Edwood

Magdoran said:


> Hello Edwood,
> Hope that made sense as this is easier to show visually on a chart or whiteboard real time, but I gather you probably got the gist.
> Regards
> Magdoran




hi Magdoran
cheers for taking the time to post - ah-ha options - yes now it all makes sense.  he he makes my trend following spreadbets & futures look a bit simple wot?!  altho the fun for me is in mixing up the timeframes to change the definition of the 'trend'.  Wayne has put me onto a good options book so I'll refer to that rather than ask you both what will likely amount to innane questions for the educated!

lovely range on Dax o/night, looking like it could go higher from here but its consolidating so will just stick to trading the range for now & wait for it to make up its 'mind'

all the best

Ed


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> Bonds back on the slippery slope before the pit open... and Dow futs of 40 before the bell as well.
> 
> Maybe next leg down from here?




hi Wayne - yeah things are looking a bit shabby but am not taking up positions yet, happy to be in & out from extended states until there is a convincing breakdown


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## Edwood

Dow o/n - one of the posters on another site put up this piece of code to identify hamonic patterns - looks like a good little tool!


----------



## Magdoran

Edwood said:


> hi Magdoran
> cheers for taking the time to post - ah-ha options - yes now it all makes sense.  he he makes my trend following spreadbets & futures look a bit simple wot?!  altho the fun for me is in mixing up the timeframes to change the definition of the 'trend'.  Wayne has put me onto a good options book so I'll refer to that rather than ask you both what will likely amount to innane questions for the educated!
> 
> lovely range on Dax o/night, looking like it could go higher from here but its consolidating so will just stick to trading the range for now & wait for it to make up its 'mind'
> 
> all the best
> 
> Ed



Indeed Ed,


I’ve fused a lot of different style together, hence it’s hard to work out what I’m doing, but if all boils down to recognising the trend, and the time frame, look at the wave structure, time cycles, and centrally the pattern of trend – combined with pure charting (looking at the chart and volume without indicators), then using specific tools to work out where the counter trends are, and forecasting support and resistance in time as well as price.

Add in derivatives, and all that requires.  My early posts were pretty much focused on derivatives, whereas my later ones cover technical analysis… it’s all there is you’re interested!

Good luck!


Mag


----------



## >Apocalypto<

opened a mini on the dow showing some support, possible new trend beginning.

waiting on more confrimation to add.

also now watching the XJO,


----------



## wayneL

Is anyone getting a bit seasick from these wild daily changes of direction? I mean I'll trade it, but WTF?


----------



## Edwood

Dow 5min ....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> Is anyone getting a bit seasick from these wild daily changes of direction? I mean I'll trade it, but WTF?




I think this is the financial equivalent of an out of balance shaft, where the vibrations become so erratic & violent that eventually something has to give way. Typical of market tops & exhaustion?

I have given it the title of 'The Goldilocks economy & the 3 bear markets'. The first 'bear' was the correction back in March, the second was the one we are having now, & the third is the one that completes the cycle, possibly to coincide with the 3rd qtr US GDP figures around October, which could be the first qtr which goes solid negative, if not sooner with this qtr.

In the meantime the bull will have one more rush to new highs when it becomes apparent that the Fed is not going to raise rates whilever the housing bust/credit squeeze continues to look for a bottom.

Japan looks to be the fly in the ointment, inflation requiring a tightening bias towards interest rates, & a mad scamble for the carry trade exits maybe?

There is an estimate that there is 35% more global liquidity than would be required for normal productive expansion, thanks largely to excessively low global (mainly Japanese) interest rates, now playing catch up as shown by the bond market this week, after being behind the curve for so long. 

Private equity? Global equity surplus looking for a home, no matter how risky. It's out of control & it's not going to be pretty when the derivative & debt disco stops.

October global CRASH anyone?

Oh, and then theres the small problem with bees!


----------



## nizar

Uncle Festivus.

October crash?
Then what -- start of a bear market or sideways market?
For how long?

In your opinion.


----------



## Arturius

New to this forum, but I'm a daily trader scalper of the YM (mini dow) and ER2 (Russell 200) markets, and I reside in Sydney, so this thread seems perfect to me.

I also run a blog at http://ausscalper.blogspot.com

I'll be back later to do some market profiling for tomorrow and what to expect!


----------



## Edwood

Hi Arturius - 'predictions' for tomorrow are always welcome, especially if they're correct!


----------



## Arturius

Haha, I can never 'predict', but I can tell you where several bias's should lie... and luckily, thats all you need to make money in this game. I'll run through it right now.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Is anyone getting a bit seasick from these wild daily changes of direction? I mean I'll trade it, but WTF?




aaarrrrggghhhhh!!!!!!

Another day of chop after a big opening gap

Wish you U.S traders would hurry up and make your mind up about which way it's gunna go


----------



## Arturius

First thing, I've graphed out here the days market profile. If you don't know what the market profile is, google is your friend. Suffice to say, its not a gann/fib stuff, its just quantative statistical mapping of the days volume, using a standard deviation to show where the most action occurs. The middle white line represents the value point, the point that most people agreed upon. The day was a bracketed one and started on low volume.

The key is what time frame is looking to buy aggressively, what time frame is looking to sell, what time frame is looking to cover shorts, and what time frame is looking to liquidate existing positions. I won't go into my total strategy for this as it'd be the size of a phone book, but suffice to say, we don't want to be caught with any surprises. The worst is when you hit a good buying bottom for institutions, and very rarely are these ever some sort of trendline. More commonly, its represents to them a good point to buy into, usually because the price has lost upward momentum, but the value zone in the total market overview remains high. This will not show up when drawing trendlines, it'll only show up in your mind when you're trying to play "what would they be thinking?" in your head.

I'll also note, I'm not sure how this applies to the Australian markets. The SPI200 is a mix of overseas movements and aus institutional buying of course.  US is the leading market, thus its a little easier to trade. I'm sure if you worked on it enough, you could come up with a very profitable system for the aus markets too, but the catch is, you can't use a US system on the aus markets. I've never tried it, but I doubt it'd work, the characteristics are different, although the principles still apply.





Here's the first graph. As you can see, the market trended away at the end on some strong volume (look at my volume lines being broken). It bounced off my value line and went full steam ahead. What time frame did the buying? I suspect the intermediates saw an opportunity to come in and take advantage of a week of sideways movement. Once the force got behind (force = volume) the trade, everyone else piled on, looking to test the next obvious point at 13600. It actually close slightly above. This looks quite bullish in the short term (especially after a slide caused by interest rates; it seems everyones adjusted to that fairly quickly though). But we're not trading short term, we're trading intraday. This would be a bad long for a trader looking to hold for a week or more. Why? Because price has outskipped a weeks worth of value zones. We're banking on this being the start of something big, something most timeframes can get into. I don't see that happening, personally.

Thats not to say it might not happen. In a week, we could see a return to some big bull movements. I can't predict that, but its very much a possibility. Each day will give us hints to that movement. So far, I think a trend day (or week) probably isn't going to happen. If you're looking for a swing trade, I'd wait, later next week could hold some good value trades. Its all about seeing it, processing it, looking for confirmation, then trading. If I told you to 'buy in a week, the market will be good!', I'm giving you terrible advice, because depending on how the movement happens will tell me what everyone is thinking. The more pieces, the better the puzzle looks. So far, I've only got some of the frame in the short term.

Intraday, however, is a different story. Price has gotten away from the previous weeks value zone. I'm not totally convinced by this end of day movement. The chartist TA guys will be saying "oh look, its broken 13600, BUY BUY BUY RIDE THE TREND". Poor trading. I have no doubt an upside trend could happen, but I'll need more evidence. I'll need some confirmation that people are happy with a 13600 price, their happy to have a majority of volume at that level, then I'd use that as the base for another trend run. Thats a much higher probability trade then just looking for breaks in basic trend lines. Wheres the force going to come from is way more important then some price mark. Price marks only represent a symbol. Volume represents who gives a ****.

Here's what I'm thinking: See how the market opens. An ideal trade for me would be if the market moves up quickly in the first 15 (maybe even gaps slightly) on light volume, gets uncertain, and starts to go sideways. Perfect short opportunity. I'd look at the TICK, see where the money is going, time my entry using that and a combination of the ER2 + bonds market, short when I start to see some force (volume), then let the market do its thing. Once it returns to that 13550 mark, then I start thinking about covering, depending on the force. If the force isn't convincing, there's probably a lot of covering going on, and once thats over the players will come back in as the price will be near to the value zone, and will start to push at it again. If there's a huge amount of force and its clear that somebody thinks this price is over valued, I just hold it and ride it till it gets to the other side of the weeks value zone. After that, its like going into uncharted waters, we're experienced sailors with good instincts, but its probably better to wait till we have a map. Not worth risking our boat sinking.

Another possibility is the bears fail to move the price down, and there's high volume, side ways movement. Volume will taper off, then the bulls will come in and start the upwards trend again. This is not a strategy I'd use at the open though. Like I said, trades gotten away from the value zone, lets wait for a new one to develop here before we buy. Its like giving us a nice mattress at a price level. There's no point in trading, hoping that some magical bull run is going to happen. That does occur, but its not high probability.

Here's what I mean when I say the value zones for the week. Here's the highest one, a few days ago, with the current price and close.





Like I said, the market could continue. It could do anything. But I've got 2 set ups I'll be looking for that I think are high probability, in that, more often then not, they'll be a winner. Sometimes they'll **** up, but the beauty is, they won't **** up bad. More likely, they'll go sideways on lessening volume, and I exit a small loser or sometimes a small winner. Like the big traders say, cut those losses. But your entry can help you do that too. Feel free to ask questions, (remember, google market profile, way too much to explain on a forum) I make no predictions, but my thinking usually keeps me out of bad trades. I'm patient, if this day doesn't pan out, I just do it again the next day.   I'll post my post-day synopsis tomorrow.


----------



## Arturius

for you market profilers, I'll give you a short version of what I'm seeing.

If it looks bracketed, but opens upwards a little bit, I short.

If I see evidence of a trend day with strong volume, I go long.


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## Edwood

wow!  so knowing market profile means I'll only have to read 2 sentences?  I'd better get googling then 

interesting stuff Art, yes wouldn't recommend trying to apply Dow strategies to ASX, well in my experience anyway they are completely different.

that harmonic pattern I posted earlier as at Dow cash close is potentially bearish fwiw.  more powerful at tops & bottoms, am short at the close but only looking for 20pts or so


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Thanks Arturius for that insight. I was wondering what software you use for your trading; I see you use eSignal for charts?

Generally, would it be possible for posters describing how they trade to include a short tagline describing what software they use?


----------



## Arturius

My software: Esignal (charting and data feed), Marketdelta (specialised market profiling with a few neat features), and Ninjatrader (execution program).

But you can do it with anything. Tradestation is a good one for the budger conscious. I like having the extra power that the more expensive software programs have, even if I never use them in practice; sometimes its fun just to play around with features for a couple of hours.

Yeah, I'll emphasise the "don't trade like this for the ASX". The same value principles apply, but the ASX is a follower market, not a maker. I have no doubt you could tweak a system for the asx, but you're going to have to brush up on intermarket movements first, and depending on your findings, weigh the factors differently and come to different conclusions.


----------



## Arturius

The handbook on CBOT is an excellent starting resource too.

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/docs/handbook.pdf


----------



## Magdoran

Arturius said:


> for you market profilers, I'll give you a short version of what I'm seeing.
> 
> If it looks bracketed, but opens upwards a little bit, I short.
> 
> If I see evidence of a trend day with strong volume, I go long.



Hello Arturius,


 Welcome to ASF.  Nice to see such an accomplished trader posting.  I think you will find a lot of interest in your style on this site, there are quite a few traders that are always looking to view different approaches.

Interestingly, this band based system (market profile??? – Steidlmayer???) looks a bit like wavepicker’s standard deviation “sigma” envelope approach, but probably doesn’t use the de-trending/displacement refinement to remove the lagging component.  It also seems a bit like a Bollinger approach too.  There is even a parallel with Frank’s “AMT” model here in concept.

Arturius, did you design this, or is it a package issued with all the parameters configured for you?  For instance how do you deal with the lagging component of the envelope?  ("wavepicker" should be the one to talk about this, this is his speciality)…

Personally I look at markets in a totally different way, but I’ve seen quite a few good traders use this style of approach combined with good charting skills.  

The weakness I see in this style of band based system is entering short at the top of the band, or entering long at the bottom of the band when a move continues past the channel band when a strong sustained move comes along.  How stops are set is quite an art (hence I can imagine this is included in _King Arthur’s_ “phone book” lexicon).  It will be interesting to watch this in action real time…


Regards



Magdoran


----------



## Arturius

Oh, I'm not using a band approach. The bands on my charts is just to help me visualise what price is doing. Its like a wave channel. I don't use any system. They're keltner bands as well, bollingers looks very crazy on the screen 

I don't make any trades based on the position of the price in the band. It just helps me not to get too focused on a few tall candlesticks and the like and start thinking about the 'bigger' picture with price movements.


----------



## Arturius

One more thing before I go, if you're interested in some dynamic possibilities contained within market profiling and intermarket analysis combined with TICK set ups, read this blog:

http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2007/03/high-probability-trade-setups.html

I was a little bit into profiling before, but this guy really inspired me to push it harder, and I'm indebted, even though I've never met him (I have commented a few times  ).

If you have no idea wtf he's saying, don't worry, I was the same. Persevere.


----------



## Magdoran

Arturius said:


> One more thing before I go, if you're interested in some dynamic possibilities contained within market profiling and intermarket analysis combined with TICK set ups, read this blog:
> 
> http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2007/03/high-probability-trade-setups.html
> 
> I was a little bit into profiling before, but this guy really inspired me to push it harder, and I'm indebted, even though I've never met him (I have commented a few times  ).
> 
> If you have no idea wtf he's saying, don't worry, I was the same. Persevere.



The blog in the link seemed to indicate a band/channel approach based on standard deviation (but I presume based on a lagging indicator like a Bollinger style of approach right???)  The logic flow diagrams depict a style as I previously outlined of shorting near the top of the band, and going long near the bottom of the band.

What was interesting was the concept of “point of control” (POC) and the use of volume being depicted horizontally in line with a section of a trend/drive to work out support and resistance in price.  I really like this, and I’ve always tried to do this in my head and visualise it using my imagination.  That’s how I’ve got by.  But I never really thought of it in quite the way it is depicted.  Thanks for that.  I must look at this some more, there may be a refinement I can incorporate out of this.

Now, the block trading is an interesting concept if you’re a day trader, but for position traders, I’m not sure how relevant this is…

Thanks for putting up the link.


Mag


----------



## Edwood

cheers for the link Arturius, have been meaning to get under the bonnet with MP, has been recommended to me a few times but the need for specialised s/w has turned me off.  would be great to see someone working it 'livetime' so to speak!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> cheers for the link Arturius, have been meaning to get under the bonnet with MP, has been recommended to me a few times but the need for specialised s/w has turned me off.  would be great to see someone working it 'livetime' so to speak!




Elwood 

from what i have read about MP and i like it alot, I really think that Franks Markets Dynamics is a great system and that is what i will move into next learning ATM and market dynamics, as it follows the market and not just the intraday.

correct me if i am wrong MP traders.


----------



## Edwood

sounds like a plan Trade It - would be interested to hear how you get on, Franks results look good


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Elwood
> 
> from what i have read about MP and i like it alot, I really think that Franks Markets Dynamics is a great system and that is what i will move into next learning ATM and market dynamics, as it follows the market and not just the intraday.
> 
> correct me if i am wrong MP traders.




Trade It,

I don't think Frank's Market Dynamics system has anything in common with Market Profile. I think it has alot more to do with pivots than MP.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Trade It,
> 
> I don't think Frank's Market Dynamics system has anything in common with Market Profile. I think it has alot more to do with pivots than MP.




Never said it did frink.

Only said MP is used in Intraday and ATM for the daily weekly trend which suits me much more.

Thats why Franks methods has a slight advantage over MP, I think i remember seeing him use it on smaller time frames as well.

I was looking at MP & Wave as advanced systems to trade with then I found ATM (market dynamics).


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Never said it did frink.
> 
> Only said MP is used in Intraday and ATM for the daily weekly trend which suits me much more.
> 
> Thats why Franks methods has a slight advantage over MP, I think i remember seeing him use it on smaller time frames as well.
> 
> I was looking at MP & Wave as advanced systems to trade with then I found ATM (market dynamics).




Oh ok, I misread your earlier post


----------



## Arturius

Quick update, gapped upwards again, broke away in the first 15m of trading. If it encounters resistance, then goes flat with some volume pushing down, going to get on board short. SS:


----------



## Arturius

Ok, momentum is slowing, price is going a little bit flat on lower volume. The TICK is still above zero, so people aren't selling yet, but its slowing and returning towards the 0 value of a balance in bought/sold shares. If that starts to go negative, along with my other indicators, that signals to me an ideal spot to go short.

Here's where I wait and really stalk it. Anything could happen, but I'm looking for  flatness with lower volume for some time, then a big push in volume (and hopefully an attack on the TICK and some other index's). Then I short, wait and see.


----------



## Edwood

bearish harmonics showing across 15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr SPX and upwards from 5min on Dow

short Dow & Dax


----------



## Edwood

Dax also sitting at .618 retrace of the 08 June low


----------



## Arturius

Looking very bullish. Volume is high and there's been some wars. Price has broken out slightly, but its still being held back. If it can break out of this little zone again, it looks like the day will be a trending one, which means going long might be the play. Note I'm going to wait for the trend to show itself first before I trade it. I'm looking for a short if nothing comes of this and the bears start getting behind, but if it breaks out, I'll wait for a nice retracement then buy in myself.


----------



## Edwood

aye tis that! closed me shorts, slink to the back with glum face waiting for another opp...


----------



## Arturius

Exhaustion in the bulls, for now. Maybe a late day charge is in order, but at the moment, I'm looking to go short.





I'm now stalking the trade on the 1m, waiting for a big kick of volume to come through. Its going kind of flattish, but thats good for us. Everyones going to regroup, the institutions will decide there ain't no pushing up through 13700 in the short term, and the intermediate/long term holders won't see his as a great spot to buy in, so there will be little support. Once it hits the value zone, short coverings begin, slowing the momentum, I cover before this though. Then some bulls hit it, and we close as a bracketed day.

Lets see how close I am.


----------



## Arturius

Here we go, short at 13660. Good spot, volume is solid enough for me, broken away from the small value zone developed today.  The TICK is an excellent entry system too, look at how its going bearish and struck through the 0 mark. Now to hold and watch.


----------



## Arturius

Also, stop loss 20 points higher. Should suit the volatility today, give it room to move. I can cut it short below that, of course. Profit target, no idea, but I've set one for 60, I'll surely move that in though.


----------



## Edwood

good stuff Art - have reentered Dax short, made up for the stop-out, will let it run


----------



## Arturius

Exited at 13673, 13 pt loser. Still semi happy with the trade, probably should have waited a little longer for confirmation the bulls were in trouble. I probably didn't time my entry properly, although I think my fundamental idea was ok, the volume wasn't really there so I could have just waited.

Good day so far, hopefully more to come. Looks like price may be sticking to the newly created value zone; which is what I like to trade.


----------



## Arturius

Seems to be in a bracketed day. Best way to trade this is to fade any break out unless its on a really really large volume move (fading, as in, betting the opposite way on any sign of weakness). Graph:





If the price moves outside this value zone in any way, and the volume is uninspiring, short/long it on moving back towards the POC (point of control). Today the poc is at 13669, thus far.

I'll post back for a wrap up tomorrow morning.


----------



## Edwood

this is where the Dax left off - sitting on resistance around low of wave i of 3 down, so kept my short running


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nizar said:


> Uncle Festivus.
> 
> October crash?
> Then what -- start of a bear market or sideways market?
> For how long?
> 
> In your opinion.




All just speculation on my part based on some fundamental research, and historical precedents. My speculation that the Dow etc will have one last hurrah phase is due to my perverse logic that because the Fed will be reluctant to raise rates, despite their rhetoric that inflation is their priority, this will be enough to give the bobble-head bulls one more chance. 

What will really set the scene for the last blow-off phase will be a disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates, & as we all know that will be good for companies, so the market will rise? Until it dawns on them the economy is stuffed, then a big sell-off.

Then again, I could be just talkin' through my hat again .


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I cant complain at all about my Long on the dow!

but some storm clouds on the oil front are making me a little more unsure about the distance this short term trend could move due to the posible rise of the OIL price.

Oil is in a bullish continuation pattern but yet to be confirmed. If confirmed It has the possibility to rise to 75$ with major resistance at 80$

**but Oil is yet to confirm, what I am seeing with the latest news on supply and the pattern makes me a little nervous as the US is already thinking about inflation, Crude rising could add the the case of higher rates**

what r your opinions on the effect to share markets if crude rises to $75-$80


----------



## nizar

Trade_It said:


> what r your opinions on the effect to share markets if crude rises to $75-$80




Hold plenty of oilers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trade_It said:


> what r your opinions on the effect to share markets if crude rises to $75-$80




Hi Ti,
Nice chart. I think it's obvious it wont be good for the world economy; just one more domino in place?
Breakout in price mid summer, filter through to markets by October, GDP affected. All lining up now.



> James DiGeorgia, editor of the Gold and Energy Advisor newsletter, expects prices to spike this summer up to $3.50 a gallon, or even over $4 if bad storms cut down on the production and delivery of oil from the Gulf of Mexico, as happened during the 2005 hurricane season, when 35 per cent of the US refining capacity was shut down.


----------



## Arturius

Market stayed very flat after the initial move upwards. Lower volume to finish the day. All that stalking and the market didn't do anything. I suppose we needed a quiet day. I'll re-eval and have a look at the market again.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Hi Ti,
> Nice chart. I think it's obvious it wont be good for the world economy; just one more domino in place?
> Breakout in price mid summer, filter through to markets by October, GDP affected. All lining up now.




I'm not a fundamental kinda guy. And I don't really give a hoot where oil goes but remember oil went from 25 in 2003 to 60+ now during which time the SP500 has nearly doubled.  Oil up is not really a sure bet on the market down.

To keep in my contrary mood
"disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates" from Uncle Festivus.
If they would lower rates from what is really a middle of the road level you would think that is because inflation is no longer a problem rather than slowing growth, and growth didn't look to be slowing in the last GPD numbers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> I'm not a fundamental kinda guy. And I don't really give a hoot where oil goes but remember oil went from 25 in 2003 to 60+ now during which time the SP500 has nearly doubled.  Oil up is not really a sure bet on the market down.
> 
> To keep in my contrary mood
> "disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates" from Uncle Festivus.
> If they would lower rates from what is really a middle of the road level you would think that is because inflation is no longer a problem rather than slowing growth, and growth didn't look to be slowing in the last GPD numbers.




so you forgot about last year when it hit 80$ that was a mayor staler after the may correction then when oil fell the dow took off in july.............

if you trade positions seeing negative inflationary pressure can help you to see your profit projections.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Arturius said:


> Yeah, I'll emphasise the "don't trade like this for the ASX". The same value principles apply, but the ASX is a follower market, not a maker. I have no doubt you could tweak a system for the asx, but you're going to have to brush up on intermarket movements first, and depending on your findings, weigh the factors differently and come to different conclusions.




To keep yet again with my contrary mood.
Not sure this is all together true. the SP500 has been behind most markets as far as gains go since 2003. thats in the long term...this is a comparison of XAO & SP00




and in the short term 
Dr. Brett recently wrote about the US being a follower not a leader hear with this post Its very interesting stuff. Dr. Brett stuff is great lots of research. A must read for people who are always worried about what is the US going to do. I also have noted the little SPI200 sometime predicts or moves first in a recent post here


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> To keep yet again with my contrary mood.
> Not sure this is all together true. the SP500 has been behind most markets as far as gains go since 2003. thats in the long term...this is a comparison of XAO & SP00
> View attachment 10085
> 
> 
> and in the short term
> Dr. Brett recently wrote about the US being a follower not a leader hear with this post Its very interesting stuff. Dr. Brett stuff is great lots of research. A must read for people who are always worried about what is the US going to do. I also have noted the little SPI200 sometime predicts or moves first in a recent post here




very ture on the S&P TH


----------



## Uncle Festivus

trembling Hand said:


> I'm not a fundamental kinda guy. And I don't really give a hoot where oil goes but remember oil went from 25 in 2003 to 60+ now during which time the SP500 has nearly doubled. Oil up is not really a sure bet on the market down.
> 
> To keep in my contrary mood
> "disastrous GDP figure requiring the Fed to lower rates" from Uncle Festivus.
> If they would lower rates from what is really a middle of the road level you would think that is because inflation is no longer a problem rather than slowing growth, and growth didn't look to be slowing in the last GPD numbers.




True, inflation adjusted oil price is nowhere near the old record, but you have to look at it from a big picture perspective, ie the consumer is being hit from all sides now, so it has been shown that there is a threshold in gasoline prices that the consumer starts to reduce discretionay spending. The fact that prices are nowhere near what could be considered a secular high only makes it more relevant.

So you are saying Bernanke & co are willing to suffer a recession in order to fight inflation? They (the Feds) would be aware of the real level of monetary inflation, around 10%, so would be comfortable with the scaremongering that goes on saying they are vigilent more so on inflation, but at the first sign of negative GDP they won't hesitate to prime the economy with lower rates. Deja vu in 2002.



> Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Interesting to see what this qtrs will be, as the housing bust has only gotten worse since the first qtr.

Not directly on topic for this thread in the near term I suppose, but relevant all the same?


----------



## Arturius

trembling Hand said:


> and in the short term
> Dr. Brett recently wrote about the US being a follower not a leader hear with this post Its very interesting stuff. Dr. Brett stuff is great lots of research. A must read for people who are always worried about what is the US going to do. I also have noted the little SPI200 sometime predicts or moves first in a recent post here




With 24 hour markets, they all kind of follow each other though. The key is, what shatters confidence, and what makes investors upbeat? What news affects the most people? No system works by following another market as some sort of LAG, otherwise we could all be rich. The key is, to factor in the right things.


----------



## CanOz

Arturius said:


> The key is, what shatters confidence, and what makes investors upbeat? What news affects the most people? No system works by following another market as some sort of LAG, otherwise we could all be rich. The key is, to factor in the right things.




If anyone here doubts this, you should watch the markets and the way they all react simultaneously to US economic data recently...i remember watching one night when some data came out that was critical to the US economy and the reaction was amazing, GOLD moved, the US dollar moved, the SPI moved and DOW moved all at the same time...quite amazing to watch this live. Even more so to trade it i imagine.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> If anyone here doubts this, you should watch the markets and the way they all react simultaneously to US economic data recently...i remember watching one night when some data came out that was critical to the US economy and the reaction was amazing, GOLD moved, the US dollar moved, the SPI moved and DOW moved all at the same time...quite amazing to watch this live. Even more so to trade it i imagine.
> 
> Cheers,




I don't disagree with you in that regard every trader in every market is trying to get ahead of the next trader. And moves in the biggest market will make traders react. I was just pointing out that I think the day-to-day flips and flops in the US are baked in to our market very early on the open then we run our own way. Like on Tuesday we opened up big (the reaction to rally in US) then fell all day which it turns out was a prediction of the market moves in Europe/US that night. That with the fact most other market have out preformed the US makes me think that the statement that the “the ASX is a follower market, not a maker” is not a good way to be gaming things. Hope I am making some sense?


----------



## Edwood

all good stuff guys, thanks for the fundamental views, keep 'em coming!

here's a technical analysis for tonight on the Dow using harmonics:

1min = bullish butterfly
5 min = bearish 3 drives
15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr = bearish bat

software is MT4 (Metatrader) a Russian piece of kit

Based on the patterns the Dow has a bit of work to do to turnaround the bearish picture that is forming across the longer timeframes.  its looking like we'll see a rise after the open on the back of the butterfly, fail to retest yesterdays high, then theoretically we'll sell off.  target 13,400 initially.  no timeframe on that however.

as always the patterns give a view as to possible direction, but price action is whats important

here's the 4hr bat - this pattern is supposedly more powerful at tops fwiw - not suggesting this is a top tho!


----------



## Edwood

this guy tends to have a good balanced view & able to catch the 'big' moves so worth reading imo

doesn't think we are near a bottom on this move

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7764.htm


----------



## Magdoran

Edwood said:


> this is where the Dax left off - sitting on resistance around low of wave i of 3 down, so kept my short running



Are you still short Ed?


----------



## wavepicker

Edwood said:


> all good stuff guys, thanks for the fundamental views, keep 'em coming!
> 
> here's a technical analysis for tonight on the Dow using harmonics:
> 
> 1min = bullish butterfly
> 5 min = bearish 3 drives
> 15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr = bearish bat
> 
> software is MT4 (Metatrader) a Russian piece of kit
> 
> Based on the patterns the Dow has a bit of work to do to turnaround the bearish picture that is forming across the longer timeframes.  its looking like we'll see a rise after the open on the back of the butterfly, fail to retest yesterdays high, then theoretically we'll sell off.  target 13,400 initially.  no timeframe on that however.
> 
> as always the patterns give a view as to possible direction, but price action is whats important
> 
> here's the 4hr bat - this pattern is supposedly more powerful at tops fwiw - not suggesting this is a top tho!




Excellent chart Trade It, looks very much like Pesevanto to type symmetrical approach. Will be very interested to see what transpires this evening as this is a crucial juncture indeed

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Edwood said:


> this is where the Dax left off - sitting on resistance around low of wave i of 3 down, so kept my short running




Certainly looks like an impulsive move down, this may well be a countertrend up.  I am short this too, with a stop just above 0.75 retrace of the range down. A failure to put in a close above this level would be bearish IMO


----------



## Edwood

Magdoran said:


> Are you still short Ed?




closed half tbh Magdoran, not certain where we are going so think its best to cut down on the position, will get back in if we start to roll over


----------



## Edwood

wavepicker said:


> Excellent chart Trade It, looks very much like Pesevanto to type symmetrical approach. Will be very interested to see what transpires this evening as this is a crucial juncture indeed
> 
> Cheers




Hi Wavepicker - I'm Ed.  seems to be a good little tool, we'll see how it pans out, could be an interesting day.

Rgds


----------



## Magdoran

Edwood said:


> closed half tbh Magdoran, not certain where we are going so think its best to cut down on the position, will get back in if we start to roll over



Good luck Ed.  Are you watching the DAX now?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> all good stuff guys, thanks for the fundamental views, keep 'em coming!
> 
> here's a technical analysis for tonight on the Dow using harmonics:
> 
> 1min = bullish butterfly
> 5 min = bearish 3 drives
> 15min, 30min, 1hr & 4hr = bearish bat
> 
> software is MT4 (Metatrader) a Russian piece of kit
> 
> Based on the patterns the Dow has a bit of work to do to turnaround the bearish picture that is forming across the longer timeframes.  its looking like we'll see a rise after the open on the back of the butterfly, fail to retest yesterdays high, then theoretically we'll sell off.  target 13,400 initially.  no timeframe on that however.
> 
> as always the patterns give a view as to possible direction, but price action is whats important
> 
> here's the 4hr bat - this pattern is supposedly more powerful at tops fwiw - not suggesting this is a top tho!




Elwood is that your charting? if it is what style of analysis is it? Looks very Gann to me


----------



## Magdoran

Current musings on the S&P 500


----------



## wavepicker

Edwood said:


> Hi Wavepicker - I'm Ed.  seems to be a good little tool, we'll see how it pans out, could be an interesting day.
> 
> Rgds





Aplogies Ed, slip of the old eye!!  My attention to detail can be really bad at times!!


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Elwood is that your charting? if it is what style of analysis is it? Looks very Gann to me




 Trade_it
 Look very much like Gartley patterns, based a lot on ABC type corrections.. Pesavanto has a good book on them... can't remember the name of it but if you goooogle *Larry Pesavanto* and *pattern recognition* you should be able to find it, at Amazon possibly. Has 222, butterfly, bat, 3 drives etc patterns in it.

   Cheers
           Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Trade_it
> Look very much like Gartley patterns, based a lot on ABC type corrections.. Pesavanto has a good book on them... can't remember the name of it but if you goooogle *Larry Pesavanto* and *pattern recognition* you should be able to find it, at Amazon possibly. Has 222, butterfly, bat, 3 drives etc patterns in it.
> 
> Cheers
> Kauri




cheers man


----------



## Edwood

hi TIT, yes its harmonics

might get a pause here with Dax...  probably no chance tho!


----------



## CFD

Edwood said:


> hi TIT, yes its harmonics
> /QUOTE]
> 
> *T*his *I*s *T*he *S*how


----------



## Edwood

wavepicker said:


> Aplogies Ed, slip of the old eye!!  My attention to detail can be really bad at times!!




no worries Wavepicker, TIT calls me Elwood so have just put it down to a Strainism


----------



## lesm

Seeing as Forex is a bit boring at the moment, but that may change over the next hour or so, with the number of US announcements scheduled to be released

Thought I would take closer look at the DAX. It is interesting on the 15 minute chart as you can more clearly identify the narrow range areas prior to a move.

I have displayed the bollinger bands on the chart as they show a BB squeeze prior to the move occurring. A couple of the narrow range areas look like a ledge, which can also identify potential moves. The R2 line appears to be offering some resistance at the moment, so we may see a bit of a pullback here.


----------



## Edwood

hey Lesm - is that a 24 hr contract?  if so I suspect the contractions occur when the exchange is closed - FTSE has a similar look - stuffs up the indicators unfortunately


----------



## lesm

Ed,

Thanks for raising the question.

I think you may be correct, I just went back through the chart in a higher timeframe and it appears to occur at around same time give or take an hour or so.

Sorry about that.


----------



## Edwood

no worries - some people only do their TA on cash charts for that very reason


----------



## Trembling Hand

There will be a Day only contract that will exclude the cash markets closed hours. Not familiar with the dax and you charting platform but try using the same ticker and putting a D on the end. That works on the SFE.


----------



## reece55

Big gap up tonight in the QQQQ's early, but sellers have appeared from the open tonight selling most stocks down. We were all the way up 21 points in the NASDAQ 100 for about 5 mins, now snapped back pretty quickly to about 14 points up. Anyone trading the US tonight???? Good ole tripple witching hour in the US today!!! Great fun......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Trembling Hand

I'm watching. that looks way to hot of a start on the back of two good up days up? Sell anyone?


----------



## reece55

trembling Hand said:


> I'm watching. that looks way to hot of a start on the back of two good up days up? Sell anyone?




Yep,  I was short in ERTS as soon as the gap up today was filled, opened at about 49.50 - closed out for a quick bit over a 1%, but I will call it a night now - has that real "I need to get in at all costs" feel tonight in the US, sold down pretty heavily from the open. 

All the best.....

Cheers
Reece


----------



## wayneL

For mirth and amusement


----------



## >Apocalypto<

my dow position is roaring a head.

now looking for some consolidation, or maybe a 38% - 50% reatarcement of the current break to add another long.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Dow,

Price is moving in a unstable price angle due to that angle, resistance seen on the last period is nothing to worrying.

resistance line in confirmed by two pionts from the last highs made before correction. at 13694.

i am now looking for some further possible weakness taking the price to the 38% - 50% retracement area and putting the price back in harmony. a touch and rise off the gann line shows harmony and confirms the new trend plus seting up a ascending triangle with possible new highs to be reached.

weather it falls straight into that FIB area or moves sideways slightly down into that area is up to the market to decide.

I personally think a little more faster drop may happen due to alot of aggressive profit taking.

looking to add on a touch and bounce off the Gann line.


----------



## Arturius

Hello all. Last 2 days have been boring, big gap to start the day, then a bracketed market on lower volume for most of the day. Difficult to stalk any movements. I'm just waiting for something to happen, then I'll re-evaluate. Difficult to know where the value is exactly at this stage, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback today so I'm slightly bearish.


----------



## Arturius

Short at 13761. big volume, lack of any gap, push downwards, I think most swing traders will start selling off, provoking a short run as people get bearish in intraday trade. TICK is also weak at this stage. 15 point stop, looking for 45 points, will depend on how I see it.


----------



## Arturius

We all love screenies.











What I see: Negative TICK movement, higher volume reject of value zone, moving towards more intermediate zone. Good place for swing traders to sell out. We seem to have shaken off the interest rate move, lack of a gap and good volume looking to sell early on, I think the good traders will catch on, and we'll see a slide. I like this entry point earlier because there probably won't be much upside movement past the previous days value zone, so it has a lower risk to the upside despite not having much momentum. This is because a movement to the upside would mean the whole shabang; intermediate traders and institutions are interested. Good chance I'm wrong as always, but it wouldn't make sense, and if it one thing doesn't make sense, the other thing has something going for it, take a chance.


----------



## Arturius

22 point winner already. Sexy volume numbers, adding 3 contracts.


----------



## wayneL

Divergence on the TICK though.

This might go green


----------



## Arturius

Yeah there is a lot of divergence, but still, the pullback is on ****ty volume. TICK is only a confirmer, but if the underlying principle is telling you there's not enough force, I might have to hold onto it.







Besides, doesn't this look like textbook support resistance cyclical style so far?


----------



## wayneL

The bounce was also off S1 at the reversal time of ~10:30. 

LOL always opposing evidence. Toss of the coin from here I reckon.


----------



## Arturius

wayneL said:


> LOL always opposing evidence. Toss of the coin from here I reckon.




Isn't every entry a toss of the coin?


----------



## Arturius

Crappy volume, weird TICK showing, sold out a 20 point winner for 5 contracts, and breakeven for 3 contracts. $400ish profit.


----------



## wayneL

Arturius said:


> Isn't every entry a toss of the coin?



Yup! LOL


----------



## Arturius

Looks like a value area is being formed around this price in the YM. Probably going to wait a little while, unless something major happens, will probably stay out of it and let the market develop. Price may make another move away from this late in the day. If it does, I'll be waiting.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

DOW

Just Like clock work it finds some weakness on the angle it is currently on.

Now looking for its maximum retracement and support to be found in the 38-50% range + confirm Gann line.

There is still more possible weakness or banding to take place. On the daily I am still bullish, until it starts breaking the 61% retracement range.

Looking to add to my position.


----------



## Arturius

The last few days have had some serious declining volume over the norm on the YM. Both days have been slight pullbacks. I wouldn't be surprised to see long intermediate term traders begin to buy in at this stage, and a break into a trend would probably encourage the short term traders to get involved too. Some longer term probably won't see this as enough of a pullback to entice them into (adding?) a position, so if we have a down day tonight, expect a strong way to end for the weak.

I'm bullish today, as usual I'll check the volume levels and see how everyone is thinking first. If the market moves down again I might fade it and hope for a mid day reversal, which isn't outside the realm of possibility.


----------



## wayneL

Arturius said:


> TIf the market moves down again I might fade it and hope for a mid day reversal, which isn't outside the realm of possibility.



Buy dips seem to be the only game in town at the moment... until it isn't.


----------



## Arturius

Yeah, trading is sometimes really simple. The trick is to time it, there's probably more 'dip' left, but some people could get behind it, who knows.

Its been low volume so far, I think everyone is waiting to see what happens. Surely we can't have another low volume day....


----------



## Arturius

First set up I had in mind, a bounce off 13695ish, on high volume, just a quick 15 pt scalp.


----------



## Arturius

Bought in at 13701, 5 contracts, 10 pt stop, 15 pt profit. Quick and clean.


----------



## wayneL

Arturius said:


> Yeah, trading is sometimes really simple. The trick is to time it, there's probably more 'dip' left, but some people could get behind it, who knows.
> 
> Its been low volume so far, I think everyone is waiting to see what happens. Surely we can't have another low volume day....



It is summer in the Evil Empire. Low volume and volatility is to be expected... allegedly. Nevertheless, my coin landed on tails, so going against my own advice and gone short for the morning session. But no momo in any direction ATM.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> It is summer in the Evil Empire. Low volume and volatility is to be expected... allegedly. Nevertheless, my coin landed on tails, so going against my own advice and gone short for the morning session. But no momo in any direction ATM.



Too quiet for a short. Taking my chips and going to a different game tonight.


----------



## Arturius

Sold for a 15 point winner, 5 x $5 x 15 - Transaction costs = $330 to start the day.


----------



## Arturius

And it just goes crazy on me for another 10 points I could have had. I love/hate trading


----------



## Arturius

Going short at 13727. Negative TICK movement, bouncing off a value zone on high volume, should return to mean for 10 pt trade with 10 pt stop loss.


----------



## Arturius

Perhaps one of the weirdest trades of my life. Where the **** did that come from?


----------



## Arturius

Today I'm looking for a slight up movement at the beginning of the day, looking to fade for a big move north. I think the general value zone is still lower. I'm not sure how I'll react to a gap in either direction, I'll play it by ear. Day could go largely upside so I have to be careful and keep a tight stop if I make this play. Everyone seemeed hesitant yesterday to get involved, low volume, and its a point that will decide whether a correction dip comes into play or we resume our trend.

So who's going to drive the market? If some hard forces get involved, we could see a trend day, but once again, evidence has to show itself first. I think fading any early rise is the play. If the market gaps down further, play it by ear and see how things develop.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well the angle proved correct and the market could not keep it up on that line.

38% - 50% retrace was met now looking to add off support confirmed.

possible double top on the cards as well the neak line is my support line.

tonight will be a interesting one.


----------



## wayneL

We are getting some volatility back into the market... in summertime an' all. This could be another sign of unrest amongst the bulls. It is slowly being acknowledged that the Sup-Prime apocalypse is not over and that is IS having an effect on the economy (doh!) and only the most unreasonably steadfast bulls are refusing to consider the negative economic fundamentals.

Double Top? hmmmmmmm maybe the bell just rang.


----------



## reece55

wayneL said:


> We are getting some volatility back into the market... in summertime an' all. This could be another sign of unrest amongst the bulls. It is slowly being acknowledged that the Sup-Prime apocalypse is not over and that is IS having an effect on the economy (doh!) and only the most unreasonably steadfast bulls are refusing to consider the negative economic fundamentals.
> 
> Double Top? hmmmmmmm maybe the bell just rang.




Certainly rising volatility, but I can't see that a crash is imminent. Thats not to say i'm not prepared if there is one.

The US appears to be sidewards IMO - it's a stock pickers environment where selection is important. I like the look of the semiconductors however, looking really nice. Had a play at CY (Cyprus Semiconductor Corp), real nice long.....

However, I am still new in this game, so willing to take criticism here...
Cheers


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> Double Top? hmmmmmmm maybe the bell just rang.




  Just went out to see my Budgies and the smartest one amongst them is furiously ringing the little bell at thetop of their cage for all he is worth... maybe I should spread some lettuce around to distract him...


----------



## wayneL

reece55 said:


> Certainly rising volatility, but I can't see that a crash is imminent. Thats not to say i'm not prepared if there is one.
> 
> The US appears to be sidewards IMO - it's a stock pickers environment where selection is important. I like the look of the semiconductors however, looking really nice. Had a play at CY (Cyprus Semiconductor Corp), real nice long.....
> 
> However, I am still new in this game, so willing to take criticism here...
> Cheers



Crash? No I don't think so either.

My favoured bear scenario is an extended 70's style bear where it just drifts downward for years... like Japan.

But if playing individual names, there will always be something in a bull market, particularly in the small/mid caps.

But in the big end of town, correlation is very strong and it will be interest rates that accentuate the other negatives. And note how the market is now starting to do the job that the CB's refuse to do properly... raise interest rates. Take a look around the world treasury markets; they're tanking. And there there is a multitude balanced on the razors edge as far as interest expenses are concerned, both corporate and private. Even Bear Sterns, of all companies, has come a cropper based on the the small interest rate raises so far.

Suddenly, instead of all negative news being ignored, all positive news will be ignored as sentiment shifts.

The valuations aren't frothy enough in the US for a crash... but they are elsewhere, most notably, China. 

And Guess what will happen too? Stock to borrow to sell short will be in short supply, so it will be harder to play the downside with stock. Option IV's will sky rocket making pure put buys very expensive in terms of theta/vega risk.

This will happen sometime. Whether this is the start, who knows? The market will probably rise just to make me look like a tin hatter LOL. You may be prepared, but be prepared for surprises as well. 

Extreme volatility (if that is what happens)is difficult to trade. But the US market is the best place to be in terms of flexibility. The ways in which you can profit from the bear is unparalleled.

Jeez this just started out as a short two line post and now i'm waffling

Enough


----------



## Edwood

Hang Seng looking interesting right now - definitely worth keeping an eye on imo


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm thinking now that it's not going to take much for this to come undone, maybe even starting in the EU. Look at the plausibles - EU markets at records, & interest rates have not really spooked them yet for a decent correction.
Nervousness in the US from all angles eg housing bust, bond market shenanigans, Bear Sterns & some others finally brave enough to mark to market their mortgage books, at the same time as finding it difficult for anyone to re-finance them. 
Private equity losing it's access to cheap finance.
Things just seem to be aligning for a derivatives led whitewash; see who blinks first?
As Rod Stewart sang 'Tonights the night', remains to be seen if it will be alright.


----------



## reece55

Wayne
LOL about your description of a bear market - man, that sounds like a very hard market to trade in. Maybe bearish credit spreads would be the game and try for a passive income strategy?????

UF, I agree that it wouldn't take much to tip the balance right now. We only need a big PE firm to go down because they can't service the debt they have taken on with their excessively expensive acquisitions. Int rates need to be a little high yet though, but it's not going in the right direction. Watch the good ole carry trades..... A liquidity squeeze is more my worry...

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

reece55 said:


> Wayne
> LOL about your description of a bear market - man, that sounds like a very hard market to trade in. Maybe bearish credit spreads would be the game and try for a passive income strategy?????




That's certainly one way (and a good way) to play high volatility situations. Don't neglect the synthetically equivalent debit spread though, depending on skew/bid ask spread, they can work out better.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

reece55 said:


> Wayne
> UF, I agree that it wouldn't take much to tip the balance right now. We only need a big PE firm to go down because they can't service the debt they have taken on with their excessively expensive acquisitions. Int rates need to be a little high yet though, but it's not going in the right direction. Watch the good ole carry trades..... A liquidity squeeze is more my worry...
> 
> Cheers



Howdy Reece,
Thats the one - a liquidity squeeze. EU markets are off a bit tonight, more talk of interest rates. EU has never much fazed the US markets so it will be interesting to see how uncle Sam goes tonight, bounce or burn?



> TOKYO, June 21 (Reuters) - Japanese exports grew more than expected in May, a boon for Japan's export-led economic growth that strengthened expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike some time in the July-September quarter, most likely in August...


----------



## Edwood

reece55 said:


> Wayne
> LOL about your description of a bear market - man, that sounds like a very hard market to trade in. Maybe bearish credit spreads would be the game and try for a passive income strategy?????




alright fellahs you're gonna have to explain that one to me... what ever happened to just going short the index?


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> alright fellahs you're gonna have to explain that one to me... what ever happened to just going short the index?



Also a great way. No worrying about getting stock to borrow either.

A bear credit spread is when you buy calls and sell calls at a lower strike giving a payoff diagram something like this:







This one is constructed the bought leg higher than the current price, and the sold leg lower. It's called a credit spread because you receive more premium through the sold leg than you pay for with the bought one. Though I think Reece was meaning when both bought and sold leg are higher than the current price and looks like this:


----------



## Arturius

Looking at the charts now, I'm thinking a quick long scalp is the way to play it in the start of the day. The movement very much over extended, and I don't think we'll see a huge sell off at the start of day. At the end, its anyones guess, but if I was entering this market I'd go long and look to take quick profits.

We'll see how we go.


----------



## Arturius

Well, I was wrong about my predictions, but thats why hunched never make you profits, waiting for confirmation does 

I'm waiting for a good place to go short at this stage for a quick scalp, waiting to see what volume develops.


----------



## Arturius

Scratch that, order didnt go through


----------



## caleb2003

Probably for the best looking at it now, wild swings in seconds


----------



## Edwood

cheers Wayne   got the principle now thanks, but not sure I'd know how to spot one setting up!

lots of wild swings alright, took few points out of Dax last evening but on reduced position size, easy to get spanked when its like this


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> cheers Wayne   got the principle now thanks, but not sure I'd know how to spot one setting up!
> 
> lots of wild swings alright, took few points out of Dax last evening but on reduced position size, easy to get spanked when its like this




How are you finding the Dax Edwood? I've heard good things, but never really looked at it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

WayneL and Reece,

you both make very good points,

I am also now in a little more defensive state with the increased volatility.

I dose seem to be moving sideways on both the dow and the xjo.

Minor support does seem to be found on the dow so far on its 38% retrace point but it's early days there is also a assending triangle in the mix until it breaks though the Gann line.

there now two 45 degree ponits of seller harmony to beat which are minor. 

very strong resistance at 13 700, yes it dose look weak but a open mind is needed in times like this so you don't lean to far to one side of the fence.

I am 50/50 till the confirmation move occurs. 

I am yet to be conviced to close positions but stops are getting tighter.

Great payoff diagram Wayne.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Just went out to see my Budgies and the smartest one amongst them is furiously ringing the little bell at thetop of their cage for all he is worth... maybe I should spread some lettuce around to distract him...




That's it I am closing out the budgie has spoken!


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> How are you finding the Dax Edwood? I've heard good things, but never really looked at it.




hey Prof, Dax is good generally, lots of nice long moves - easier than FTSE which tends to be choppier.  check Dax out on 1min with 510MA - trading the MA crosses is a pretty simple method for it really.  only bummer is the hours but should be better for you guys in Aus


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> hey Prof, Dax is good generally, lots of nice long moves - easier than FTSE which tends to be choppier.  check Dax out on 1min with 510MA - trading the MA crosses is a pretty simple method for it really.  only bummer is the hours but should be better for you guys in Aus




Can't look at a 1 min with an average that big can only get a chart for it off futuresource, as I don't subscribe to IB data for it. Can I get it on MT4? Can find the FTSE but nothing for the DAX

It looks nice and frisky from what I've seen- Think if I was going to look outside of Asia for different markets to trade, the DAX would be one of the first I'd look at


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Can't look at a 1 min with an average that big can only get a chart for it off futuresource, as I don't subscribe to IB data for it. Can I get it on MT4? Can find the FTSE but nothing for the DAX
> 
> It looks nice and frisky from what I've seen- Think if I was going to look outside of Asia for different markets to trade, the DAX would be one of the first I'd look at




hi Prof - there is another MT4 broker with Dax but I can't remember which one - will try to find it.  I can set those signals on my spreadbet a/c

A second Hindenburg Omen has been recorded by McHugh fwiw - so we now have a confirmed H-Omen which gives a higher than normal probability of a major correction within the next 120 days.   we had a confirmed H-Omen last year before the May drop (you should've got the email from W2W)

had my first dabble in Hang Seng yesterday - traded the lunch-time gap & made my daily target in about 5 mins!  good stuff, will definitely spend more time with it, especially given that we are at the targets

have a good w/end!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> hi Prof - there is another MT4 broker with Dax but I can't remember which one - will try to find it.  I can set those signals on my spreadbet a/c
> 
> A second Hindenburg Omen has been recorded by McHugh fwiw - so we now have a confirmed H-Omen which gives a higher than normal probability of a major correction within the next 120 days.   we had a confirmed H-Omen last year before the May drop (you should've got the email from W2W)
> 
> had my first dabble in Hang Seng yesterday - traded the lunch-time gap & made my daily target in about 5 mins!  good stuff, will definitely spend more time with it, especially given that we are at the targets
> 
> have a good w/end!




Sweet. Might have to subscribe to the data for the Eurex soon to have a look anyway.

Yeah been following the omen. I've dusted my bear suit off and have it ready to go

Nice work on the HSI- those gaps at the lunch break can be pretty nasty! Did you trade the mini or just jump straight in on the full size?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> We are getting some volatility back into the market... in summertime an' all. This could be another sign of unrest amongst the bulls. It is slowly being acknowledged that the Sup-Prime apocalypse is not over and that is IS having an effect on the economy (doh!) and only the most unreasonably steadfast bulls are refusing to consider the negative economic fundamentals.
> 
> Double Top? hmmmmmmm maybe the bell just rang.




Ding Dong.

I'm sorry Wayne, Bernanke has spoken, mortgage madness largely contained now, nothing to see here, move along please ha ha 

How's the poor old consumer going, maxed out the credit cards yet? No worries, just get all those Chinese hooked on credit too.

You'd have to laugh about how it all works except that a lot of people are going to get hurt here

Camel toe double top on the daily, head n shoulders on the weekly. It would be an unusual chart pattern to see a sudden reversal of these trends in the short term, so go with the flow?? Short the rallies??


----------



## Kauri

professor_frink said:


> Can't look at a 1 min with an average that big can only get a chart for it off futuresource, as I don't subscribe to IB data for it. Can I get it on MT4? Can find the FTSE but nothing for the DAX
> 
> It looks nice and frisky from what I've seen- Think if I was going to look outside of Asia for different markets to trade, the DAX would be one of the first I'd look at




    On this thread there is a download with directions on installing into MT4... gives you the option of a mass of different servers for MT4...
*post 31* http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...?t=5293&page=3 ..
    Should possibly find the DAX in there somewhere...


----------



## caribean

It's probably old news to you , but have you heard of the CME CBOT possible merger ?, voting is on the 9th of July...


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> On this thread there is a download with directions on installing into MT4... gives you the option of a mass of different servers for MT4...
> *post 31* http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...?t=5293&page=3 ..
> Should possibly find the DAX in there somewhere...




cheers for that Kauri - much appreciated!


----------



## caribean

Hi, North Finance has DAX,etc


----------



## Edwood

thanks Caribean 

here's todays range on the Dax fwiw - managed to get some of the rise before going to bed, but wasn't expecting it to turn around quite so quickly!


----------



## caribean

I have just got the DAX, EUROSTOXX50, BUND, contracts on my account, i watched some of the action last night, i think i like the way they move better than DJI etc, there won't be any falling asleep on the wheel with those, they are real firecrackers!!


----------



## Edwood

caribean said:


> I have just got the DAX, EUROSTOXX50, BUND, contracts on my account, i watched some of the action last night, i think i like the way they move better than DJI etc, there won't be any falling asleep on the wheel with those, they are real firecrackers!!




yes Dax is better than the US in my opinion, cleaner and less 'manipulation' so tends to be less whippy - altho it does tend to follow the US quite closely...  also better than FTSE which is too choppy for me - FTSE requires too much screen watching.

haven't got a chart in front of me but also worth noting is how much the Dax is up in the last year.  should get a decent retrace out of it assuming we all roll over


----------



## wayneL

You trading the futures Ed, it's 17,200 euro initial (overnight) margin. 

Big contract. Thats 30k odd in Pacific pesos.

Stoxx 50 @ 4106 euro is more in keeping with the US eminis.


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> You trading the futures Ed, it's 17,200 euro initial (overnight) margin.
> 
> Big contract. Thats 30k odd in Pacific pesos.
> 
> Stoxx 50 @ 4106 euro is more in keeping with the US eminis.




I didn't know that Wayne - I've only used my spreadbet account for Dax so far.  I'm only doing SPI futures at the moment everything else s.bet - the o.night margin is minimal with s.bet compared to futs and the spreads are actually better out of hours with the s.bet.  Futs much better in hours tho for speed of execution and spreads.

will definitely check out stoxx 50 - cheers for the tip

s.bet could be something to look at in Europe perhaps?  profits tax free for UK residents


----------



## Edwood

are you following HSI at the moment Prof?  

strange that its only down 160-odd pts from the highs when Dow is down around 2.5%.  something seems to be out of balance


----------



## professor_frink

afternoon Ed,

Yeah, the HSI has been doing it's own thing presently- the only thing I can think of is it attracted a fresh wave of buying once it finally broke out through the highs from January.

Of course I could be wrong

But that doesn't bother me at all. I'll just keep trading it either way


----------



## professor_frink

Kauri said:


> On this thread there is a download with directions on installing into MT4... gives you the option of a mass of different servers for MT4...
> *post 31* http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...?t=5293&page=3 ..
> Should possibly find the DAX in there somewhere...




Cheers for that Kauri


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> afternoon Ed,
> 
> Yeah, the HSI has been doing it's own thing presently- the only thing I can think of is it attracted a fresh wave of buying once it finally broke out through the highs from January.
> 
> Of course I could be wrong
> 
> But that doesn't bother me at all. I'll just keep trading it either way




yeah good point - perhaps best not to reason why...! 

still new to HSI so will just look to jump in & out until I get a feel for it - we could be in minor iv now with a final pop up to come - i.e., looking for a top if those fib levels are correct that is


----------



## Edwood

on the longer timeframe (daily) RSI dropping & MACD starting to turn down for a cross so looks to be setting up for some downside imo.  am short now +24 but hovering as I know this baby turns on a dime!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yeah good point - perhaps best not to reason why...!
> 
> still new to HSI so will just look to jump in & out until I get a feel for it - we could be in minor iv now with a final pop up to come - i.e., looking for a top if those fib levels are correct that is




If you are looking at the HK markets- have a look at the H-shares. It's the HSI's psycho little brother. Can be good fun


----------



## Edwood

closed +22 - will see if we get a bounce off the bottom bolly & look to have another dabble from the top bolly


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> If you are looking at the HK markets- have a look at the H-shares. It's the HSI's psycho little brother.




lol! will do - thanks - only have Hong Kong33 where I am now - are H-shares available on IB?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> on the longer timeframe (daily) RSI dropping & MACD starting to turn down for a cross so looks to be setting up for some downside imo.  am short now +24 but hovering as I know this baby turns on a dime!




Keep an eye on today's low- looks to be fairly strong support for intraday plays




> lol! will do - thanks - only have Hong Kong33 where I am now - are H-shares available on IB?




yes IB has it. Symbol is HHI


----------



## Edwood

sheesh its quick hey!?  it makes the SPI look geriatric!!

out too soon, never mind, bouncing already - early days but I think I'm converted!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> sheesh its quick hey!?  it makes the SPI look geriatric!!
> 
> out too soon, never mind, bouncing already - early days but I think I'm converted!




 

Makes trading the SPI very hard after trading the HSI- I find myself getting very impatient when it hasn't moved 30 secs after I enter!

If you start trading it with IB, look into some front end order management software- makes trading this thing much easier


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Makes trading the SPI very hard after trading the HSI- I find myself getting very impatient when it hasn't moved 30 secs after I enter!
> 
> If you start trading it with IB, look into some front end order management software- makes trading this thing much easier




yes I can see how that must happen - my start would be getting later & later every day - like 1:45pm.  thankfully SPI opens are worth being around for.  might have to get some golf clubs or something!

what do you recommend for an OMS?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yes I can see how that must happen - my start would be getting later & later every day - like 1:45pm.  thankfully SPI opens are worth being around for.  might have to get some golf clubs or something!
> 
> what do you recommend for an OMS?




Sounds tough doesn't it- early round of golf, quick scalp on the SPI open, then a long, leisurely lunch before some afternoon trading on the HSI

I use zeroline trader

http://www.zerolinetrader.com/

$89USD a year.

I didn't exactly shop around so I'm not sure how the others compare with it

Price was right and it did what I wanted, so I signed up

Another one I've heard of that's meant to be good as a front end for IB is button trader.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Sounds tough doesn't it- early round of golf, quick scalp on the SPI open, then a long, leisurely lunch before some afternoon trading on the HSI




I reckon you'd need a relaxing morning to set up for the rush in the afternoon!



professor_frink said:


> I use zeroline trader
> 
> http://www.zerolinetrader.com/
> 
> $89USD a year.
> 
> I didn't exactly shop around so I'm not sure how the others compare with it
> 
> Price was right and it did what I wanted, so I signed up
> 
> Another one I've heard of that's meant to be good as a front end for IB is button trader.




great - thanks mate will check them out!


----------



## professor_frink

You watching HK today Ed?

HSI down 100 points in the last 15 minutes- starting to look a little ugly


----------



## Edwood

grrr - not in it unfortunately Prof - got a project going live on Monday so finding it difficult to concentrate on the markets at the moment.  should've just left my trades running with stops in - never mind, market will still be there tomorrow

hope you're giving it heaps!


----------



## Edwood

I see there are two big juicy gaps down below tho!  especially that one from 21,250-odd to 21,000


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> grrr - not in it unfortunately Prof - got a project going live on Monday so finding it difficult to concentrate on the markets at the moment.  should've just left my trades running with stops in - never mind, market will still be there tomorrow




That's a shame- volatility definitely seems to be picking over over the last few weeks, so should still be fun when you start opening up some trades again.



Edwood said:


> hope you're giving it heaps!




yeah I picked up some beer money for the weekend

:drink:


----------



## Edwood

good man! 

... since you mention beer money I might just have to try & clear the desk now!


----------



## Edwood

whoa - talk about swift - all earlier losses recovered


----------



## professor_frink

In today's trading on the H-shares, there's been a 250 pt selloff, followed by a 200 pt rally, with a bit of wiggling around in between. Makes for good trading


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> whoa - talk about swift - all earlier losses recovered




yep. Absolutely nutters these markets


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> Sounds tough doesn't it- early round of golf, quick scalp on the SPI open, then a long, leisurely lunch before some afternoon trading on the HSI
> 
> I use zeroline trader
> 
> http://www.zerolinetrader.com/
> 
> $89USD a year.
> 
> I didn't exactly shop around so I'm not sure how the others compare with it
> 
> Price was right and it did what I wanted, so I signed up
> 
> Another one I've heard of that's meant to be good as a front end for IB is button trader.



I use http://www.bracket-trader.com/home.html which is free for the more popular contracts.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I use http://www.bracket-trader.com/home.html which is free for the more popular contracts.






Oh well. I'll have a look at it when my time runs out with ZLT, although I am pretty happy with it right now.

Does bracket trader have anything like the action buttons on ZLT? Being able to have them sitting right above a chart makes life nice and easy.


----------



## wayneL

No. I'd have to say it's a bit more cumbersome than that. 

With bracket trader you program in your stops, progressive exit levels, and order size and just press buy or sell. (of course there is the flexibility to override) But the screen is a tad bigger. \/

I must say that little ZLT screen looks pretty nifty.


----------



## Edwood

yes ZLT does have a nice front end Prof - will check out BT first tho & see how I get on there.

gee HSI is jumping around again today nearly back at the highs!  definitely not one to hold overnight unless its in some kind of exhaustion move at the extreme of a range.  certainly wouldn't like to hold o/night in the middle of a trading range - might as well make a pile of $20's in the garden & get a lighter out!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yes ZLT does have a nice front end Prof - will check out BT first tho & see how I get on there.
> 
> gee HSI is jumping around again today nearly back at the highs!  definitely not one to hold overnight unless its in some kind of exhaustion move at the extreme of a range.  certainly wouldn't like to hold o/night in the middle of a trading range - might as well make a pile of $20's in the garden & get a lighter out!







That's one way of putting it! Personally, I think the SPI is better suited to o/n holds(well for me anyway). At least you can have stops in play constantly on the SPI.


----------



## Edwood

yes agree 100% there G, don't mind SPI all sessions at all, essential for the opening gap plays imo

HSI looks as though it might be setting up for that wave 5 now.  I wonder if its mainland funds driving it - could break away here if we're lucky!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yes agree 100% there G, don't mind SPI all sessions at all, essential for the opening gap plays imo
> 
> HSI looks as though it might be setting up for that wave 5 now.  I wonder if its mainland funds driving it - could break away here if we're lucky!




Yeah it definitely looks like it's got a little while to go- the buying yesterday afternoon appears to have been the real deal, and not just short covering


----------



## Edwood

I have a potential fib area around 22,170 where we might get some resistance fwiw


----------



## Bearman52

wayneL said:


> No. I'd have to say it's a bit more cumbersome than that.
> 
> With bracket trader you program in your stops, progressive exit levels, and order size and just press buy or sell. (of course there is the flexibility to override) But the screen is a tad bigger. \/
> 
> I must say that little ZLT screen looks pretty nifty.




Hi Fellas 
if you are using or going to use IB try the "Ninja Trader" platform I have used it for a couple of years now for daytrading and scalping SPI,Mini Russel,ES Mini and the DAX and have found it very good it has many customisable configurations and as of recently it is possible to fully automate a system ((( although I would leave that alone for a while yet in case there are any bugs that need ironing out))) http://www.ninjatrader.com 
BM


----------



## Edwood

thanks v. much Bearman - a quick scan of the strategy tester it looks very handy, will have a decent play with it tonight (so to speak)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Rebounds galore hey!


This is a market I have been looking to trade been watching it lately from current retrace to now its the korea 200 (KOPSI 200) index.

It has found support in the 50% range and its picking up, I am looking to go long over it very soon.

quite a nice flowing trend. moving well on its 45degree line.

good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Have gone long over the Korea 200 this morning just after open.

Strong move out of the 50% fibb range yesterday suggested the retrace was completed. With todays higher open confirmed the long for me.

it's still moving along the Gann line in a time price harmony.

Due to its current angle of break out another test or band to the Gann line is a short term possibility.

Stop is in under the 61% area of the new break out.

Good trading.


----------



## Edwood

nice work Trade It - I gather Korea is friendly with China so the trend might continue for a bit yet.

that trend line looks appealing for future shorts!!


----------



## Edwood

did you get any of that opening gap on HSI Prof?  managed to fade it for a few before going to a meeting


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> did you get any of that opening gap on HSI Prof?  managed to fade it for a few before going to a meeting




Na, left the open alone- it didn't pull back far enough for me to get set for a long, so I had to wait for a trend change


----------



## Edwood

certainly focuses the mind tho!

that pop up at the open could theoretically complete the pattern up - to post a new high & sell off is not a great sign you'd have to think.


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> certainly focuses the mind tho!
> 
> that pop up at the open could theoretically complete the pattern up - to post a new high & sell off is not a great sign you'd have to think.




I didn't have us at a new high on the futures, or cash index


----------



## Edwood

might be dodgy s/bet data - they sometimes overrun the actual action.  I have 22,029 checked back & its a new high on my data.

fine tho if you haven't got one I guess, means the high might still be out there!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> might be dodgy s/bet data - they sometimes overrun the actual action.  I have 22,029 checked back & its a new high on my data.
> 
> fine tho if you haven't got one I guess, means the high might still be out there!




On the futs, I have a high of 22115 on the 25th, and a high of 22110 today. Ib's data for the cash index is 22090 on the 25th, and 22048 today. There was rollover yesterday, which would explain the big difference in the 2 highs between cash and futs.

Still was a nice selloff after the break of the highs but


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> On the futs, I have a high of 22115 on the 25th, and a high of 22110 today. Ib's data for the cash index is 22090 on the 25th, and 22048 today. There was rollover yesterday, which would explain the big difference in the 2 highs between cash and futs.
> 
> Still was a nice selloff after the break of the highs but




yeah I suspect my s/b data is duff


----------



## macca

Excuse me butting my novice head in here but I am interested in learning to trade indexes.

I have been monitoring the SPI but find the action to tight and I notice Prof Frink's comment on the Hang Seng daily range.

Does anyone know if any there is a feed for Hang Seng data for Metatrader software.

I can watch and test the Hong Kong 100 on CMC but was hoping to get a feed on Metatrader

Any suggestions ?


----------



## wiseguy

macca said:


> Excuse me butting my novice head in here but I am interested in learning to trade indexes.
> 
> I have been monitoring the SPI but find the action to tight and I notice Prof Frink's comment on the Hang Seng daily range.
> 
> Does anyone know if any there is a feed for Hang Seng data for Metatrader software.
> 
> I can watch and test the Hong Kong 100 on CMC but was hoping to get a feed on Metatrader
> 
> Any suggestions ?




Macca, I'd be interested to knw too.
Also would you happen to know of a datafeed on the SPI for Metatrader?

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well my Korean adventure came to a very quick finish!

I got the hell out of there with a tasty loss.

Frink Edwood + others,

i will tell you these Asian indexes play for keeps! up 210 then -80 then -5 then -150 then -210 wow what a eye opener!

well the only advice i will give any new indexe trader is, if you want to take a position on any index wait till the last 30 min of trade then u know where u stand, I do it on the xjo but i was not thinking straight with my exotic holiday today!

That's one for the lesson book!


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> well my Korean adventure came to a very quick finish!
> 
> I got the hell out of there with a tasty loss.
> 
> Frink Edwood + others,
> 
> i will tell you these Asian indexes play for keeps! up 210 then -80 then -5 then -150 then -210 wow what a eye opener!
> 
> well the only advice i will give any new indexe trader is, if you want to take a position on any index wait till the last 30 min of trade then u know where u stand, I do it on the xjo but i was not thinking straight with my exotic holiday today!
> 
> That's one for the lesson book!




Yeah the Kospi can really move when it wants to. I've looked at it briefly, but not seriously.
Does some pretty big volume-191,000 odd contracts today. At $22,000 o/n initial margin she's pretty expensive as well.


----------



## Edwood

Hi Macca - in my opinion Hang Seng is not one to start with.  I'm no expert in it as I've only been looking at it for this week but straight away its obvious you need to have a plan and know when not to get in & when to get out.  I managed to scalp a couple of extensions for quick returns but I was also rapidly underwater for a time as well.  it moves very very quickly.  SPI might be slow going but its a much better & safer place to start.

Trade It - mate if you're 200 up, bank it quick!   that trend line you flagged looks interesting for shorts tho so definitely worth keeping an eye on


----------



## Edwood

this was todays HSI open - nice gap fade opportunity there.  if you have to do it thats one possibility.


----------



## Edwood

here's the fibs on the SPI today Macca, quite well behaved really!


----------



## caribean

Here's a link to an interview of a lady trader, Nazila Jafari, which trades the DAX primarily, she describes a good way to trade the DAX in short time frames.
I've only been observing the DAX for a few days and i came up with a similar approach, since i like fibs so much, only difference, my stops would be 10 to 12 ticks, targeting whatever the market offers(i do have a visual exit point on the 50 tick chart).
Anyone care to comment?
http://www.zanet.co.uk/tradertom/documents/62_63_64_65_66_67_68_E_Tra01_Jafari.pdf[/URL]


----------



## caribean

Quote : I have read the Traders magazine both in English and German. I must tell the following, some of the articles are based on commercial basis. Take for example the individuals who were interviewed from Phoenix, they were arrested last month for laundering money, millions of Euros. All the stuff the portfolio manager had in his article about trading is totally baloney if you know about trading. All the profits he talked about have been fabricated.
Everybody in the local trading biz knew about the losses in their company because they would have temp traders who would trade for them for 6 months to 1 year. Obviously these temp traders did not keep their mouth shut.
Nazila Jafari on the other hand is a trader who has just arrived on the scene from nowhere. I did not see her in any of the trader events for Eurex and Xetra for the past years. It's like she landed from Mars. Plus in Traders, she does not talk in detail about her strategy. When you go to her seminars she talks about TA and money management. Her trading methods for futures are very close to set-ups for the S&P Future which Linda Brandford Raschke has on her site as articles.
They also had two interviews with three day trading firms, who are known in the local crowd for their imbecile bosses who have led 3 different firms to bankruptcy.
Traders also is good for certain "gurus" who wanna rip off beginners with their TA seminars.
I would recommend subscribing to Active Trader. Traders is a joke.


Apologies, i just discovered the above reply in a forum, it goes a little way back....i suppose it's irrelevant, the technique is the juicy bit the rest can be discarded.


----------



## macca

Looking at the HK index on CMC, it has a spread of 7 and a minimum of $10 per point.

It is so hard to back test any ideas without having data I can research with.

I do have Amibroker as well as Metatrader, anyone know of data available on the Asian markets for AB or MT ?


----------



## Edwood

caribean said:


> Here's a link to an interview of a lady trader, Nazila Jafari, which trades the DAX primarily, she describes a good way to trade the DAX in short time frames.
> I've only been observing the DAX for a few days and i came up with a similar approach, since i like fibs so much, only difference, my stops would be 10 to 12 ticks, targeting whatever the market offers(i do have a visual exit point on the 50 tick chart).
> Anyone care to comment?
> http://www.zanet.co.uk/tradertom/documents/62_63_64_65_66_67_68_E_Tra01_Jafari.pdf[/url]




haven't done any analysis on Dax stops sorry Caribean, I tend to work visually as well & set them depending on the action

on the subject of Dax fibs, here's a chart from another site from earlier in the week (not mine btw)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> haven't done any analysis on Dax stops sorry Caribean, I tend to work visually as well & set them depending on the action
> 
> on the subject of Dax fibs, here's a chart from another site from earlier in the week (not mine btw)




Hey Edwood/ Trade IT

The charts that you have been posting look like they are CMC's CFD charts. Do you trade intraday with CFDs and if so Why? Why don't you use the futures market and get order flows with volume, tighter spreads, cheaper brokerage, ability to use the Bid/Ask spread to get fills and not be handicapped by wide spread that stuffs up your expectancy?


----------



## CanOz

macca said:


> Looking at the HK index on CMC, it has a spread of 7 and a minimum of $10 per point.
> 
> It is so hard to back test any ideas without having data I can research with.
> 
> I do have Amibroker as well as Metatrader, anyone know of data available on the Asian markets for AB or MT ?




I've got the HS futures contract to 1996 thru PremiumData...bloody spreads eh!

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> Hey Edwood/ Trade IT
> 
> The charts that you have been posting look like they are CMC's CFD charts. Do you trade intraday with CFDs and if so Why? Why don't you use the futures market and get order flows with volume, tighter spreads, cheaper brokerage, ability to use the Bid/Ask spread to get fills and not be handicapped by wide spread that stuffs up your expectancy?




TH,

I trade positions on daily time frames for now I only day trade on the XJO
looking at Cnina B shares as well.

Other IG users I spoke to IG on friday and asked them if they would consider a day trading spread of .5 point in and out as aposed to 1. that is only from 9.50am - 4.30 pm after that a another point is added if your still holding the contract, they are going to look at it.

if that becomes reality then i would not move to the actual SPI for a while.

I use IG markets, all my charts I post are from IT finance IG's advance charting package.

Yes Can the spreads on some of the markets make them untradable as it knocks your R/R out of whack.

I mainly stick to markets with smaller spreads to keep my MM acceptable.

in IG's defense there spread over the AUD/USD is better then most FX only brokers, and its fixed at 2 pips not variable.

DOW XJO in sidways band is this a top or a charge for higher highs?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> Hi Macca - in my opinion Hang Seng is not one to start with.  I'm no expert in it as I've only been looking at it for this week but straight away its obvious you need to have a plan and know when not to get in & when to get out.  I managed to scalp a couple of extensions for quick returns but I was also rapidly underwater for a time as well.  it moves very very quickly.  SPI might be slow going but its a much better & safer place to start.
> 
> Trade It - mate if you're 200 up, bank it quick!   that trend line you flagged looks interesting for shorts tho so definitely worth keeping an eye on





Edwood, that was a more then one trade not a day trade.

still watching it see where it goes.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Hey Edwood/ Trade IT
> 
> The charts that you have been posting look like they are CMC's CFD charts. Do you trade intraday with CFDs and if so Why? Why don't you use the futures market and get order flows with volume, tighter spreads, cheaper brokerage, ability to use the Bid/Ask spread to get fills and not be handicapped by wide spread that stuffs up your expectancy?




hi Trembling hand - swings & roundabouts for me - SPI is intra-day futures for speed of execution & spreads otherwise everything else is UK spreadbet -  o/night margin for ASX200 is effectively 300pounds per SPI contract, so significantly better / cheaper than futures.  its the same for most other markets.  HSI is 1000pounds margin per 10 pound bet.  so a lot of flexibility to cover more markets at once


----------



## Edwood

HSI setting up for a break either way here Prof - looking like an ascending triangle


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> HSI setting up for a break either way here Prof - looking like an ascending triangle




God I hope so- been tough trying to get a decent trade on. Today has been a lot of effort for very little return


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> God I hope so- been tough trying to get a decent trade on. Today has been a lot of effort for very little return




bugger - hate days like that - did the SPI open and a couple of small scalps within the range there so not bad so far.  

am looking at hourly HSI for the triangle fwiw


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> bugger - hate days like that - did the SPI open and a couple of small scalps within the range there so not bad so far.
> 
> am looking at hourly HSI for the triangle fwiw




Ok. Explains why I hadn't noticed it- don't usually go that big for charts on this thing

Decided to have a proper look at the dax futs last night- looks interesting. It's almost like a slightly more liquid, slightly less volatile version of the HSI. Plenty of decent trends during it's morning period


----------



## Edwood

I like to look at the action across different timeframes to give me an idea as to where the near term bias could be.  got itself right into a corner here so the afternoon session could be interesting

good range with the Dax Prof - it's almost behaving like an emerging market lately, some big swings.  tends to follow the US quite closely but has much tighter spread on the s/bet account - 2pts for Dax v's 4 for Dow so a 'cheaper' way to trade very similar action


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> I like to look at the action across different timeframes to give me an idea as to where the near term bias could be.  got itself right into a corner here so the afternoon session could be interesting
> 
> good range with the Dax Prof - it's almost behaving like an emerging market lately, some big swings.  tends to follow the US quite closely but has much tighter spread on the s/bet account - 2pts for Dax v's 4 for Dow so a 'cheaper' way to trade very similar action




Yeah the dax looks fairly volatile, but I was actually more impressed with the ESTX50- that thing is highly liquid. I actually think I'd end up looking at it before the Dax.


----------



## Edwood

lovely breakout on HSI Prof 

worth the mucking around this morning


----------



## Edwood

potential target for the ascending breaout - apparently the often come back to retest previous resistence


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> lovely breakout on HSI Prof
> 
> worth the mucking around this morning




certainly was


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Its a great time to be trading international indexes right now.

The xjo does not know what to do with itself.


----------



## Edwood

am a bit nervous of the HSI today looking at that closing action yesterday...


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> am a bit nervous of the HSI today looking at that closing action yesterday...




There is also a mighty big gap to fill about 1000 points below where it is now

And the nikkei isn't providing much in the way of a positive lead this morning either.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> There is also a mighty big gap to fill about 1000 points below where it is now




he he - sounds good to me


----------



## professor_frink

The nikkei is starting to look a tad bearish- yesterday was another failed attempt to get through the Feb highs.


----------



## Edwood

wicked short sqeeze on HSI!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> wicked short sqeeze on HSI!




It was our bearish talk this morning Ed. The world must have figured out what great fades we are and went long

Interesting to note that the HSI rallied quite a bit more than the H-shares today- usually it's the other way around


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> It was our bearish talk this morning Ed. The world must have figured out what great fades we are and went long
> 
> Interesting to note that the HSI rallied quite a bit more than the H-shares today- usually it's the other way around




hmm - maybe more shorts on the HSI?  ok if they want to play like that ....  

"looks to me like HSI is going to the moon!"


----------



## professor_frink

Nearly 400 points up from the lows today. And that's after a 100 point selloff in the first half hour


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> potential target for the ascending breaout - apparently the often come back to retest previous resistence




that'll be the target hit then - give or take a few points for any inaccuracies of me lines








excuse the typos in the original post - at least my pics are better than my England!


----------



## Edwood

right the house move is done - what's going on with the markets?

I see ASX is bumping along the ceiling again - if we manage to break out here could be off to 6,700 area (based on some PnF counts from a while back).  Dax looking a bit ascending triangle-ish - well its getting into a corner, could be an ending diagonal maybe.  HSI is off to the races.

But check out these puppies! (from another site).  China doesn't look that exciting compared to Mexico & Brazil!  Interestingly McHugh over the weekend suggests we could be in a large Wave 1, Wave 2 due to start soon as an alt to his Wave 5 Armageddon count -huh 

XX:1807318  Mexico(Utd Mex St) IPC (INDEX)
XX:1801677  China SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE (INDEX) 
XX:1802647  Brazil IBOVESPA (INDEX


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> right the house move is done - what's going on with the markets?
> 
> I see ASX is bumping along the ceiling again - if we manage to break out here could be off to 6,700 area (based on some PnF counts from a while back).  Dax looking a bit ascending triangle-ish - well its getting into a corner, could be an ending diagonal maybe.  HSI is off to the races.
> 
> But check out these puppies! (from another site).  China doesn't look that exciting compared to Mexico & Brazil!  Interestingly McHugh over the weekend suggests we could be in a large Wave 1, Wave 2 due to start soon as an alt to his Wave 5 Armageddon count -huh
> 
> XX:1807318  Mexico(Utd Mex St) IPC (INDEX)
> XX:1801677  China SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE (INDEX)
> XX:1802647  Brazil IBOVESPA (INDEX




morning Ed,

HSI is most definitely off to the races- looks like it's running a sprint compared with a marathon

H-shares chart below- cracked 13000 yesterday, and is now up over 50% from the lows made in early march, and 120+% from the June 06 lows

Anyone want to have a guess at how long this run will last for?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Morning guys,

Well I can relate to Asian indexes just going up, up & up. The position I opened on KOPSI200 last week Monday has been posting green ever since!

really amazing forces at play such investor power in it's rawest form. It really swings during the day as well can lose and regain 150 point with out any trouble.

Latest green arrow my entry.


Good Trading


----------



## Edwood

Hi Prof - looks pretty impulsive - any interesting fib levels coming up?

I thought you were stopped out of that Kopsi trade Trade It (as per post 538) or did you take the plunge again straight away?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> Hi Prof - looks pretty impulsive - any interesting fib levels coming up?
> 
> I thought you were stopped out of that Kopsi trade Trade It (as per post 538) or did you take the plunge again straight away?




That was on friday. Re-entered on the Monday. The red candle is my stop, things changed fast!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> Hi Prof - looks pretty impulsive - any interesting fib levels coming up?
> 
> I thought you were stopped out of that Kopsi trade Trade It (as per post 538) or did you take the plunge again straight away?




Not really familiar with fib numbers and their application, so you'll have to correct me if I've done this wrong

Ran a fib extension from the June lows to Jan highs, and have the first chart below.

2nd is a fib retracement from the Jan correction.

Third is one where I know what's going on- pivots. Sitting right at a quaterly level


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> that was on friday. re entered on the Monday. The red candle is my stop, things changed fast!




good for you Traed It!  perhaps if you plan to post 'updates' to historic trades you might want to post around the time you enter as well


----------



## Edwood

I normally run fib extensions off an initial move (i.e., wave 1 or A) - TPB is the master tho Prof, have a look at some of his work, I'd hate to tell you 'fibs'


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> good for you Traed It!  perhaps if you plan to post 'updates' to historic trades you might want to post around the time you enter as well




Edwood will do in the future,


----------



## CanOz

The Germany 30 looks like its thrown in the towel after a go at recent highs too....lost nearly 1% in 50 minutes...i onder how many more will do this tonite?

Could get interesting.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

And today's lesson in 'how to blow out your account daytrading Hong Kong index futures' comes from the H-shares index. I don't know exactly what happened, as I had another trade on and wasn't watching it too closely, but time and sales go like this-

13007
13009
13010
13006
12997
*12900
12900*
12959
12980
13001.

In the space of 5 seconds.


----------



## CanOz

Holy smokes Prof, does a stop have chance at all?

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Holy smokes Prof, does a stop have chance at all?
> 
> Cheers,




If you are long- none. A long might have been lucky, in that by the time the order was fired off- the market had gone back up. Having said that, there wasn't really any reason for a daytrader to be long when it happened.


----------



## professor_frink

so far in the morning session on the H-shares we've had an intraday range of 323 pts. Not too bad for 2.5 hours of trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frink I had the same problem trying to close my Korean contract this morning.

Every time i hit sell the price moved and the price was invalid was a damn fiasco!

Ended up having to call ig and get them to do it at there end.

I have never had that experience before, asian indexes are a totally different game of cards!

And to top it off, after I closed it it rallied straight away! aghh you got to love trading somtimes.


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Frink I had the same problem trying to close my Korean contract this morning.
> 
> Every time i hit sell the price moved and the price was invalid was a damn fiasco!
> 
> Ended up having to call ig and get them to do it at there end.
> 
> I have never had that experience before, asian indexes are a totally different game of cards!
> 
> And to top it off, after I closed it it rallied straight away! aghh you got to love trading somtimes.




Do you have to trade at market with cfd's TI? Can't you just sit in the depth and wait to get taken out?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Do you have to trade at market with cfd's TI? Can't you just sit in the depth and wait to get taken out?




I always trade at market Frink never tried to close by price point I was trying to get rid off it fast did not want to hang in there waiting for a price but now I wish I had!

Never tried that kind of order not sure even how to attempt it.


----------



## CanOz

You cannot see the depth with IG CFDs.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> You cannot see the depth with IG CFDs.
> 
> Cheers,




ok gotcha


----------



## Edwood

same problem for me on spreadbet Trade It - put on a limit order slightly over / under touch & you'll usually get out that way.  also less frustrating as you know what price you should be hit at


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> And today's lesson in 'how to blow out your account daytrading Hong Kong index futures' comes from the H-shares index. I don't know exactly what happened, as I had another trade on and wasn't watching it too closely, but time and sales go like this-
> 
> 13007
> 13009
> 13010
> 13006
> 12997
> *12900
> 12900*
> 12959
> 12980
> 13001.
> 
> In the space of 5 seconds.



I remember about 4 years ago, I was watching YM, looking for an entry, when that sucker dropped about 500 points in 10 seconds.

It was a fat finger entry and CBOT busted all the trades, but funny at the time (though a slightly different emotion would have taken over had I been in a trade )


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I remember about 4 years ago, I was watching YM, looking for an entry, when that sucker dropped about 500 points in 10 seconds.
> 
> It was a fat finger entry and CBOT busted all the trades, but funny at the time (though a slightly different emotion would have taken over had I been in a trade )




On the YM- did you find out what happened? 

I've never heard of the HKFE busting trades before. I'm now curious as to whether it happens or not


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> On the YM- did you find out what happened?
> 
> I've never heard of the HKFE busting trades before. I'm now curious as to whether it happens or not




Yeah someone put an extra zero on a market order and took out the whole depth, a fat finger trade... tried to google the exact incident but couldn't find it. But a few examples here http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=fat+finger+trade+&btnG=Search&meta=

It was surreal, there was a few of us chatting on MIRC at the time and we thought someone was letting of ICBMs for a moment.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Yeah someone put an extra zero on a market order and took out the whole depth, a fat finger trade... tried to google the exact incident but couldn't find it. But a few examples here http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=fat+finger+trade+&btnG=Search&meta=
> 
> It was surreal, there was a few of us chatting on MIRC at the time and we thought someone was letting of ICBMs for a moment.




Whoops

I'm surprised I haven't heard stories like that coming out of the HK futs- an accident prone retail punter like myself could do serious damage to the HSI or H-shares if the timing of a mistake was right(or wrong depending on how you look at it!)

I think today's little episode was on less than 50 contracts


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> Whoops
> 
> I'm surprised I haven't heard stories like that coming out of the HK futs- an accident prone retail punter like myself could do serious damage to the HSI or H-shares if the timing of a mistake was right(or wrong depending on how you look at it!)
> 
> I think today's little episode was on less than 50 contracts



Well YM was only about 30,000 contracts per day at the time, that's why it was such a savage move, but even so, it took out the other indices as well.

I would love to have been a fly on the wall in the SP pits at the time.


----------



## lesm

CanOz said:


> You cannot see the depth with IG CFDs.
> 
> Cheers,




Correct, but by left clicking on a currency, stock or index name under the 'Market' column you can select 'Order to Open' which will bring up a dealing screen which will allow to specify an order level, number of contracts and whether you want use 'buy stop/limit' or 'sell stop/limit'.

You are not restricted to buying/selling at the current market price (sell/buy or bid/ask).

Cheers.


----------



## lesm

wayneL said:


> Well YM was only about 30,000 contracts per day at the time, that's why it was such a savage move, but even so, it took out the other indices as well.
> 
> I would love to have been a fly on the wall in the SP pits at the time.




Wayne,

Sounds like it may have had a wider effect than the AMP finger problem, when it originally floated.


----------



## Edwood

reasonable rally in the US o/night (well compared to the sort of thing HSI can chuck out! )  guess we'll be off to new highs everywhere then


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> reasonable rally in the US o/night (well compared to the sort of thing HSI can chuck out! )  guess we'll be off to new highs everywhere then



Yup, only the good news was considered. The bad news was.... well, what bad news?

Black is white
War is Peace
Ignorance is Strength
etc


----------



## Edwood

hi Wayne - yeah must be too many shorts around still, bull fodder!


----------



## professor_frink

gunna be a tough day me thinks

Quite often get a huge gap followed by narrow range, choppy trade after the yanks make a really big move like this.

Though I really hope I'm wrong today


----------



## Edwood

gotta say I took a short about 30 mins before the close of all sessions so fingers crossed we don't spike too much from here - not ideal but hey ho thats the way it goes.  looking for some pull-back at the open, gap up for the open is currently around 88 on spreadbet (only trade s/b out of hours fwiw)

Risk is there could be lots of stops just over the consolidation we've been in for the last couple of months so might just rocket as we all cover


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> gotta say I took a short about 30 mins before the close of all sessions so fingers crossed we don't spike too much from here - not ideal but hey ho thats the way it goes.  looking for some pull-back at the open, gap up for the open is currently around 88 on spreadbet (only trade s/b out of hours fwiw)
> 
> Risk is there could be lots of stops just over the consolidation we've been in for the last couple of months so might just rocket as we all cover




Think there could be a short on the open Ed. Would want to be careful in case it holds above the highs of the past month. Personally, I'm favouring the gap and chop scenario- I've been disappointed quite a few times expecting something good here after a massive move in the dow, so I'll be dropping size and trading pretty lightly today(can't not trade at all, just in case I'm wrong)


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Think there could be a short on the open Ed. Would want to be careful in case it holds above the highs of the past month. Personally, I'm favouring the gap and chop scenario- I've been disappointed quite a few times expecting something good here after a massive move in the dow, so I'll be dropping size and trading pretty lightly today(can't not trade at all, just in case I'm wrong)




yes I think you're probably right Professor - could well pop & grind, either way I'm not expecting it to come back a lot given the way US finished so finger on the trigger


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> gotta say I took a short about 30 mins before the close of all sessions so fingers crossed we don't spike too much from here - not ideal but hey ho thats the way it goes.  looking for some pull-back at the open, gap up for the open is currently around 88 on spreadbet (only trade s/b out of hours fwiw)
> 
> Risk is there could be lots of stops just over the consolidation we've been in for the last couple of months so might just rocket as we all cover




Looking at it now that I've got all my data loaded- the o/n session hasn't moved up anywhere near as much as I expected, considering what's happened  o/s. My first thought was for a 100+ point gap, SYCOM is up 70 at the close.

If we get a gap up on the morning session to 6445-50 then I'll look to get short for a scalp.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Looking at it now that I've got all my data loaded- the o/n session hasn't moved up anywhere near as much as I expected, considering what's happened  o/s. My first thought was for a 100+ point gap, SYCOM is up 70 at the close.
> 
> If we get a gap up on the morning session to 6445-50 then I'll look to get short for a scalp.




yep looks as tho I'm in early - well on the bright side at least we should finally get out of this consolidation!  looking as tho it has all been a wave 4 across several markets, we've got a partial decline in the broadening pattern so we could be in a swift wave 3 now


----------



## Edwood

stopped out - too much on to watch it all day so have a good day Prof!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> stopped out - too much on to watch it all day so have a good day Prof!




I got the open I was looking for so I'm in- it's not loking too healthy at this stage- still pretty well at b/e, but it really should have fallen by now if it was going to. I'm probably gunna get stopped out but it's only a 1 lot, so I'll see it through to the death


----------



## professor_frink

There it goes. Looking to cover it @ 28


----------



## professor_frink

professor_frink said:


> There it goes. Looking to cover it @ 28






Trailing stop just got nicked. Watch it hit 28 now


----------



## Edwood

well done Prof - looks like my stop was too close, frustrating when that happens...


----------



## professor_frink

today hasn't turned out too bad

Glad I was wrong!


----------



## Edwood

glad to hear G 

100x3 PnF count for Dow looking a tad bullish - all long-term stuff but you can see how its achieved all upside targets printed in the past & risk reward for this next target is 4 which is 'good'.  not really relevant to short term-ers of course


----------



## Edwood

"Most world wide markets have gone on to put   in true new highs; the Dow is the only one that has not done so as to do so   it would have to trade at least 30% higher then its 2000-2001 high which would   mean to break even it would need to trade close to the 14,500 ranges. The only   reason we say oversold is because if you use regular TA the Dow is overbought   but regular TA cannot price in a dollar that has lost 30% of its value. Since   the Dow is priced in dollars it only makes sense that it would have to adjust   30% plus just to break even and from that perspective the Dow is oversold."


----------



## Uncle Festivus

From my limited tech skills I would be carefull with long trades for the Dow the next few sessions as it is looking to 'consolidate' lower with the hangman formation today, or at least have a very good profit taking session from the highs. Housing spill over & Bear Sterns type contagious flow on effects may start to be priced into accounts in this reporting season.


----------



## wayneL

Anyone follow VIX?

Another couple of down days and we'll have multi year highs... fwiw.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Anyone follow VIX?
> 
> Another couple of down days and we'll have multi year highs... fwiw.




never really looked at it. I'm not quite sure what the point of it is


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> never really looked at it. I'm not quite sure what the point of it is



This guy runs a blog on it http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/

I always look at it because of the options, but can be used as as timing tool.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> This guy runs a blog on it http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/
> 
> I always look at it because of the options, but can be used as as timing tool.




Cheers. Should give me some reading whilst I wait for this very weak looking rally to break down on the ES


----------



## Edwood

Dow sure did slice the apex


----------



## Edwood

from recent highs to yesterdays / overnight approx LOD's

Dow off 650 or -4.6%
Dax off 740 or -9.1%
FTSE off 625 -9.25%
ASX off 410 or -6.5%
Hang Seng off 400 or -1.7%

anyone short Hang Seng could be in for a good move today - not me unfortunately


----------



## hacheln_mice

This guy's market monitoring method is very interesting and unique.  He caught an early whiff of the correction a week ago...

http://www.stockbee.blogspot.com/


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys, you think we had it bad look at what happened to the Koreans!

1130 in a day.


----------



## professor_frink

ES has just hit a new low in early morning trade. With the S&P 500 cash sitting at the Feb highs, a break south from here won't do confidence levels in the U.S much good at all.


----------



## wayneL

Whoa! I was thinking a bounce for today, or megadoom.

It's still early, but more bloodletting tonight could be very bad....

.... for the longs.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Whoa! I was thinking a bounce for today, or megadoom.
> 
> It's still early, but more bloodletting tonight could be very bad....
> 
> .... for the longs.




yeah I'm a little surprised too. Could just be some stop running before it takes off.


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> yeah I'm a little surprised too. Could just be some stop running before it takes off.



I think the Yen is becoming a leading indicator again, with regards to carry trade unwind.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> yeah I'm a little surprised too. Could just be some stop running before it takes off.




Maybe not such a bad thing to open flat or down a bit. If it opens up big its just an invitation to short. If it opens down a bit its more probable to get the day traders buying up the Futs etc. Similar to what happened today on the SPI and Japan market.


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> I think the Yen is becoming a leading indicator again, with regards to carry trade unwind.




Yep I'm with you 100% on that. Its been a good leader all the other meltdowns.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I think the Yen is becoming a leading indicator again, with regards to carry trade unwind.




yeah I've noticed it a bit recently. I'm finding it to be a good confirmation tool at the moment.


----------



## stormbringer

Most have begun trending upwards,  lots of fish hooks all over the place. I'm only trading small parcel's of cfd, with a dozen or so trades open. If the market as a whole maintains most of its momentum, I'll tighten the stops overnight and see if I can afford to take the rest of the week of


----------



## professor_frink

stormbringer said:


> Most have begun trending upwards,  lots of fish hooks all over the place. I'm only trading small parcel's of cfd, with a dozen or so trades open. If the market as a whole maintains most of its momentum, I'll tighten the stops overnight and see if I can afford to take the rest of the week of




Hope you've got your stops nice and tight stormbringer. I've opened up a short on the ES. Will be looking to add on a break of 79.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Hope you've got your stops nice and tight stormbringer. I've opened up a short on the ES. Will be looking to add on a break of 79.




I'm in too for a little short 40 min ago. Have not traded the night session in a long time getting short a little ES and SPI here will probably not watch till the end just let the stops take care of things. stops just above the highs.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> I'm in too for a little short 40 min ago. Have not traded the night session in a long time getting short a little ES and SPI here will probably not watch till the end just let the stops take care of things. stops just above the highs.




Resistance @95 held pretty well this evening. Buyers came in when it got down close to flat for the day, so we might have to wait a few hours before the verdict comes in.

Yeah I'm with you on not watching it all night. Can barely keep the eyes open now


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Resistance @95 held pretty well this evening. Buyers came in when it got down close to flat for the day, so we might have to wait a few hours before the verdict comes in.
> 
> Yeah I'm with you on not watching it all night. Can barely keep the eyes open now




Boy is the UK strong!!
UK listed BHP has just about recovered from the meltdown.


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> Yeah I'm with you on not watching it all night. Can barely keep the eyes open now



Soooo... the metamorphosis is not yet complete?


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Soooo... the metamorphosis is not yet complete?




Not quite 

Some moron came and knocked on the front door @ 8:30 this morning, so it's been an uphill battle all evening. He had the wrong house too. He was looking for my neighbour

Think I'm going to have to turn myself into a swing trader if I'm going to do more trading in the U.S- the hours are pretty bad now, don't think I'd cope too well with summer trading, unless I start getting out of bed at 1am instead of trying to stay up!


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> Not quite
> 
> Some moron came and knocked on the front door @ 8:30 this morning, so it's been an uphill battle all evening. He had the wrong house too. He was looking for my neighbour
> 
> Think I'm going to have to turn myself into a swing trader if I'm going to do more trading in the U.S- the hours are pretty bad now, don't think I'd cope too well with summer trading, unless I start getting out of bed at 1am instead of trying to stay up!



I'm a bit concerned actually, when I get to the UK, trading will actually start in... DAYLIGHT!


----------



## professor_frink

Nuts to this I'm going to bed.

Have sell stops in @ 78.5 and 68 to scale in, will be surprised if I get filled on either looking at the current price action.


----------



## wayneL

Another huge range day... nearly 40 S&P points.

VIX at a new multiyear high. Long live volatility!!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Nuts to this I'm going to bed.
> 
> Have sell stops in @ 78.5 and 68 to scale in, will be surprised if I get filled on either looking at the current price action.




Good morning Professor. that worked out well   I went to bed thinking I was more likely to get stopped out than not. Was even going to scratch them!!

Got up early and covered my ES on the close about to do the same with the SPI. Boy will I need some of this  today.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Good morning Professor. that worked out well   I went to bed thinking I was more likely to get stopped out than not. Was even going to scratch them!!
> 
> Got up early and covered my ES on the close about to do the same with the SPI. Boy will I need some of this  today.




Nice work. Dunno how you managed to get up for the close of the US session!



professor_frink said:


> Nuts to this I'm going to bed.
> 
> Have sell stops in @ 78.5 and 68 to scale in, will be surprised if I get filled on either looking at the current price action.




Both sell stops filled overnight, now have an average entry price of 79. Stops now @ 82. Will have a look at how it's going when Europe opens.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Nice work. Dunno how you managed to get up for the close of the US session!




I have owned Bakeries for years. This game was meant to be better hours!!!


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I'm a bit concerned actually, when I get to the UK, trading will actually start in... DAYLIGHT!




you'll have to sell your coffin. Wonder what you'd get for it on ebay


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Both sell stops filled overnight, now have an average entry price of 79. Stops now @ 82. Will have a look at how it's going when Europe opens.




Professor
Get in any more shorts. Like HK they are taking a nice knock to the head.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Professor
> Get in any more shorts. Like HK they are taking a nice knock to the head.




unfortunately not. Just got my trade on the ES and will leave it at that. Pretty impressive selloff in HK isn't it


----------



## CanOz

Been watching the HS too...wow

Check out the Kospi? 895 points!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> unfortunately not. Just got my trade on the ES and will leave it at that. Pretty impressive selloff in HK isn't it




Yeah it is. have been trading it on a sim lately for some fun. boy is it nuts on a normal day today....... mad!


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Yeah it is. have been trading it on a sim lately for some fun. boy is it nuts on a normal day today....... mad!




How are you sim trading it?


----------



## professor_frink

I'm going to cover my ES short @ 39 if given a chance today


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> How are you sim trading it?




Ninja trader


----------



## Trembling Hand

Is the YEN about to take off. that will really mess up things!!


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Ninja trader




OK then. Weird things can happen filling orders in this index. I've gotten fills at prices I didn't even see the market trade at before. You can sometimes just throw a limit order out into the middle the spread and get an almost instantaneous fill. Not sure how a sim can deal with that kind of action, but it will be something to be aware of if you decide to move from the sim to real time trading.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> OK then. Weird things can happen filling orders in this index. I've gotten fills at prices I didn't even see the market trade at before. You can sometimes just throw a limit order out into the middle the spread and get an almost instantaneous fill. Not sure how a sim can deal with that kind of action, but it will be something to be aware of if you decide to move from the sim to real time trading.




Yeah I know of a prop firm that traded some newbies on it for months. they where all profitable so they let them go live. They all lost money every day!!
Back to the drawing board for them.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

on the topic of Asia KOSPI200 Korea, is down 900+


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I know of a prop firm that traded some newbies on it for months. they where all profitable so they let them go live. They all lost money every day!!
> Back to the drawing board for them.




OUCH!

Looks like panic has finally taken over the SPI- starting nudge to new lows now.

The nikkei is holding up pretty well compared with other Asian markets. If it tanks and breaks down below Monday's lows, we could see a bloodbath when Europe opens. And hopefully the ES will spike down and take out my buy order if that happens


----------



## professor_frink

I may regret this later on this evening, but I just cancelled my buy order @ 39.

Moving my stop to 55 and will look at it when Europe opens.


----------



## CanOz

For those that can't see how much the asian indexs have lost today......this will be a day to forget for some!


----------



## Edwood

wow!  hope you're all giving it some!  gutted - have not been able to join in the fun the last few days but definitely aiming to make some time later this evening for Europe


----------



## professor_frink

Gap down in HK this afternoon anyone?? Usually it will follow the nikkei, which is currently down 70 pts since HK went to lunch. If the nikkei doesn't recover between now and 4:30, we are probably going to see the HSI down over 1000 later on this afternoon


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Gap down in HK this afternoon anyone?? Usually it will follow the nikkei, which is currently down 70 pts since HK went to lunch. If the nikkei doesn't recover between now and 4:30, we are probably going to see the HSI down over 1000 later on this afternoon




YEN just hit new high. More fuel for the fire.


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> Gap down in HK this afternoon anyone?? Usually it will follow the nikkei, which is currently down 70 pts since HK went to lunch. If the nikkei doesn't recover between now and 4:30, we are probably going to see the HSI down over 1000 later on this afternoon




Thanks Prof, just picked up $200 on the ASX200, my first ever profit...i might try and HS later on. 

I'm waiting for the return from lunch...

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

trembling Hand said:


> YEN just hit new high. More fuel for the fire.



Watch bonds too.


----------



## wayneL

lol eurostoxx huge gap down.., anyone got ftse data?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> YEN just hit new high. More fuel for the fire.




I was just getting a chart ready to post on that

Markets haven't really reacted to the recent spike. Wonder how long it will be?


----------



## Sean K

So, who's following who now? 

Just snow ball mass panic?


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> I was just getting a chart ready to post on that
> 
> Markets haven't really reacted to the recent spike. Wonder how long it will be?



Long Yen could be the trade of the year as YCT gets mushroom clouded.


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> lol eurostoxx huge gap down.., anyone got ftse data?




Yep a mess everywhere UK looks like opening down 2.2% on futs. Commodities yet to crack.


----------



## wayneL

kennas said:


> Just snow ball mass panic?



You ain't seen nuttin' yet.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Long Yen could be the trade of the year as YCT gets mushroom clouded.




starting to look that way!

DAX is flirting with new lows now- I want to see it tank before I'm confident of holding my ES short through this evening.


----------



## professor_frink

150 pt gap down in HK. HSI futs are off over 1000 now


----------



## doctorj

Anyone here believe in the plunge protection team?


----------



## Edwood

right finally got some time in front of the screen - have I missed anything? 

PPT definitely exists imo Doc


----------



## wayneL

doctorj said:


> Anyone here believe in the plunge protection team?



Doc,

Lots of links here: http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Working+Group+on+Financial+Markets&btnG=Google+Search&meta=


----------



## wayneL

Yen Carry Trade in the news:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFoooPP685hE&refer=home


----------



## professor_frink

professor_frink said:


> I may regret this later on this evening, but I just cancelled my buy order @ 39.
> 
> Moving my stop to 55 and will look at it when Europe opens.




wouldn't have mattered- 39 wasn't hit. Out @55 for +24


----------



## CanOz

Is it just me or has that big gap down in europe signaled a bounce on the ASX and the DOW? Could this be a slight repreive b4 another drop?

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

After going short the SP500 on the 25th July, finally closed out my trades 2 days ago.

It has been a pretty scary week, and being a buyer this evening was not an easy thing to do(DJIA). It looks to me that we may see a move higher over the course of the night, tomorrow and friday. I suspect that we will retrace back up to around 13,400 over the course of the few days(Previous wave 4 target). I think it will be volatile from here onwards, and I think you need to keep a close eye on all markets and not get too complacent once you are in a profit.

IMO the DJI should reach this target, but I am unsure if this impulse is complete yet. It may consolidate here before putting in one more low by either Friday or Monday before a sizeable rally takes place.

Worth mentioning however the SP500 has made a 0.618 retracement of the entire last upward leg, this might coincide with it finding support and starting to put in a descent countertrend.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

Great post WP...i'm long the ASX 200 at the moment, but i've got a stop sell order on in case things gets nasty. If i get stopped out o/nite and my sell stops gets hit she'll be on for t'morrow.

Quite confident of a bounce though at this stage.

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

CanOz said:


> Great post WP...i'm long the ASX 200 at the moment, but i've got a stop sell order on in case things gets nasty. If i get stopped out o/nite and my sell stops gets hit she'll be on for t'morrow.
> 
> Quite confident of a bounce though at this stage.
> 
> Cheers,




Thanks CanOz, and good luck. Looks like it might chop around for the next few days, perhaps we can get something better going on the buy side next week

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

wavepicker said:


> Thanks CanOz, and good luck. Looks like it might chop around for the next few days, perhaps we can get something better going on the buy side next week
> 
> Cheers




For sure WP, i won't be holding longs o/nite thats for sure, too counter trend for me.

..just scalped a quick 14 pts on the open...i think that will do me for t-nite.

Have fun all.

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

chop...chop...chop.

What used to be a daily range (12-18 SP points) in 25 minutes.

Can be a nightmare or manna from heaven.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> chop...chop...chop.
> 
> What used to be a daily range (12-18 SP points) in 25 minutes.
> 
> Can be a nightmare or manna from heaven.




yeah it's a bit hard to get a read on the overall direction. Good swings though if you just want to scalp it.


----------



## professor_frink

Doesn't look like Asia is buying the last minute rally in the U.S overnight.

Today's intraday range in the H-shares has been 737 points, more than yesterday's range and we still have the afternoon session to go


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Doesn't look like Asia is buying the last minute rally in the U.S overnight.
> 
> Today's intraday range in the H-shares has been 737 points, more than yesterday's range and we still have the afternoon session to go




Looks like the Futures traders are on crack today . Huge swings knocking everything around. Think that's the biggest reversal I have seen in a long time. Most of my charts look weird. Some 2 minute bars have got half a "normal" days range in them!!

You messing up HK Professor?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Looks like the Futures traders are on crack today . Huge swings knocking everything around. Think that's the biggest reversal I have seen in a long time. Most of my charts look weird. Some 2 minute bars have got half a "normal" days range in them!!
> 
> You messing up HK Professor?




Only put 2 trades on, so didn't do as well as I could have- went and had a late lunch with Mrs Frink.


----------



## Edwood

from Mike Burke this week on Safehaven



"In 1959 Joseph Granville laid out the parameters for a trading system that   was popularized by Dick Fabian in the 1980's and to this day is promoted by   Doug Fabian.


 The original parameters were: buy when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)   crossed from below to above its simple 200 day moving average (SMA) and sell   when it crossed from above to below its 200 day SMA.


 As of Friday's close the DJIA was still above its 200 day SMA, however the   S&P 500 (SPX) closed below its 200 day SMA for the first time since August   2006. The SPX implementation of the system is more widely followed so there   may be a lot of selling on Monday.


 Other than being very oversold there are no indications of a bottom."


----------



## CanOz

That calls for a chart Edwood!


----------



## CanOz

Interesting that the commercials are so short on 10yrs....Its extreme juxtapositioning too between them and the funds....food for thought.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

anyone for some Commercial and Consumer Finance with CIT? 

http://www.cit.com/main/home/


----------



## CanOz

Anyone watching Europe fall? 

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> Anyone watching Europe fall?
> 
> Cheers,



BNP Paribas just reminded the market about the credit apocalypse. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={E6B2639B-407F-4383-A6EC-48872DA48B08}

Dow futs -225
SP fut -29.25 

@9:08 NY time


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:


> BNP Paribas just reminded the market about the credit apocalypse.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={E6B2639B-407F-4383-A6EC-48872DA48B08}
> 
> Dow futs -225
> SP fut -29.25
> 
> @9:08 NY time




hmmm, scalped a quick 20 points.....then watched it go another 30 before bottoming....gotta a bit a learning yet i reckon!

You for a gap up at the US open and fade down?


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> hmmm, scalped a quick 20 points.....then watched it go another 30 before bottoming....gotta a bit a learning yet i reckon!
> 
> You for a gap up to the US open and fade down?




200 pt gap down.


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:


> 200 pt gap down.




The CASH mkt gaps down, but futures mkt for the spx should GAP up and then fade off...err maybe i should read Edwoods links again...

Spike up..not gap

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, spike down and fade up...me thinks the SPX will bounce off that 1480 - 85 ish area and continue down......i hope so, i'm going to bed with a short on the Aussie200, gotta be safe with this mess surely.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

morning Can - I wasn't awake for this but thought I'd have a look at the S&P gap open for you.  Have put a fib retrace on it as well - opening gap approx 31 pts which is a pretty big gap for S&P.  we faded away from the open, & filled around 61% of the gap within an hour, so around 15pts available there allowing for spreads etc & general faffing about.


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> ...me thinks the SPX will bounce off that 1480 - 85 ish area and continue down......i hope so, i'm going to bed with a short on the Aussie200, gotta be safe with this mess surely.
> 
> Cheers,




you were right there - it did bounce off that 80-85 area   hope your Aussie short worked out well then


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> you were right there - it did bounce off that 80-85 area   hope your Aussie short worked out well then




Wow, this has been a bloody nite.

My short should be safe for a while i think.....


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Wow, this has been a bloody nite.
> 
> My short should be safe for a while i think.....




its certainly looking promising for shorts Can - if we can take out the recent lows we could well be into big wave 3 down which will be fast & long if it gets going - definitely don't want to be standing in the way of it.  In Aus we've retraced around 50% of the drop from the high so that could do it for wave 2.  Only fly is there was some major pumping going on in Europe o/night, around 100bn EUR which could hold things up for a bit

On the US side I got an EW count o.night for S&P from one of the major European banks suggesting S&P is heading into the mid 1,300's.  If that happens we should expect to see several hundred pts come off Aus in the process - i.e., 5,400 if not lower


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> its certainly looking promising for shorts Can - if we can take out the recent lows we could well be into big wave 3 down which will be fast & long if it gets going - definitely don't want to be standing in the way of it.  In Aus we've retraced around 50% of the drop from the high so that could do it for wave 2.  Only fly is there was some major pumping going on in Europe o/night, around 100bn EUR which could hold things up for a bit
> 
> On the US side I got an EW count o.night for S&P from one of the major European banks suggesting S&P is heading into the mid 1,300's.  If that happens we should expect to see several hundred pts come off Aus in the process - i.e., 5,400 if not lower




Interesting Edwood, i did a quick estimate and got 5500, but i thought it sounded to crazy to post! LOL!

thanks for the GAP info. What do you think the Aussie 200 will do on the open? Its already down alot.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Interesting Edwood, i did a quick estimate and got 5500, but i thought it sounded to crazy to post! LOL!
> 
> thanks for the GAP info. What do you think the Aussie 200 will do on the open? Its already down alot.
> 
> Cheers,




lots of pumping going on Can so it could be supported, but I think we'll get down there before too long.  todays open I'll be looking for some retrace but not a lot maybe 30-50pts.  However if 3 is underway then we could just continue on down - any longs on the open are pretty risky right now, better to be short like you are .  So an open bounce will be on a small position with mandatory stop


----------



## CanOz

Hong Kong just lost thier futures exchange apparently. I'm in an open posi too....short....

Cheers,


----------



## doctorj

CanOz said:


> Hong Kong just lost thier futures exchange apparently. I'm in an open posi too....short....
> 
> Cheers,



Come again?!


----------



## CanOz

doctorj said:


> Come again?!




Apparently they lost thier futures system...its down....IG said they can't get pricing from them, same for the H Shares...anyone know any different?

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Apparently they lost thier futures system...its down....IG said they can't get pricing from them, same for the H Shares...anyone know any different?
> 
> Cheers,




Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong raised typhoon signal No. 8 as winds caused by a tropical cyclone strengthened, the Hong Kong Observatory said. The city's stock market closed at 2:45 p.m. instead of 4 p.m., Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. said.


----------



## CanOz

trembling Hand said:


> Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong raised typhoon signal No. 8 as winds caused by a tropical cyclone strengthened, the Hong Kong Observatory said. The city's stock market closed at 2:45 p.m. instead of 4 p.m., Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. said.




Well this is just wucking fonderful.....i'm short 10 minis!

Lets just hope everything continues to tank and it gaps down when it reopens hey!



Cheers,

This is where the GSL is worth it.


----------



## professor_frink

keep your eye on the KOSPI this morning folks- it's going to get smashed on open


----------



## professor_frink

4% gap down. ouch!


----------



## professor_frink

It's turning into a mini panic in Korea- down nearly 7% today


----------



## Edwood

whoah!  crazy


----------



## CanOz

I thought the KOSPI was going to recover, but its testing those lows again!

USD/JPY at support and holding.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> I thought the KOSPI was going to recover, but its testing those lows again!
> 
> USD/JPY at support and holding.
> 
> Cheers,




2nd bulletin that has come through today about an Asian exchange-

_"Price limits have been reached on the korean exchange, and the stocks and options have been halted by the exchange for 15 minutes. They should resume @ 2:43 Seoul time. Futures are still open"_

Very weird. The cash index and index options were still moving as if nothing has happened:dunno:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frink,

I have had my eye's on the KOPSI most the day really frighting fall. -1440 on IG now.


----------



## CanOz

Heres the DJ weekly pivots and now a mid point as well...interesting how the futs are between the S2 and MP now....


----------



## professor_frink

more madness from the kospi this morning

nearly 3% move down in just over half an hour


----------



## Trembling Hand

What the hell just happened to the Nikkei?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> What the hell just happened to the Nikkei?




make sure you are watching the reaction to the nikkei's sell off when the HSI opens in a few minutes. That's going to be brutal.

Anyone looked at the U.S futs? Dow off nearly 140 already. Looks like we are a good chance for another big gap down in the U.S tonight. Wonder if the cavalry have any money left to bid it up again??


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> make sure you are watching the reaction to the nikkei's sell off when the HSI opens in a few minutes. That's going to be brutal.
> 
> Anyone looked at the U.S futs? Dow off nearly 140 already. Looks like we are a good chance for another big gap down in the U.S tonight. Wonder if the cavalry have any money left to bid it up again??




You messing that up Professor?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> You messing that up Professor?




didn't have the courage to hold over lunch. Not in this market. Will wait for a countertrend move and look to get back in


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> didn't have the courage to hold over lunch. Not in this market. Will wait for a countertrend move and look to get back in




Really that closing over lunch is such a weird thing. Makes it very hard to play.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Really that closing over lunch is such a weird thing. Makes it very hard to play.




It can be. It's also good sometimes- put a couple of trades on in the morning session, then go off and spend a couple of hours lounging around relaxing knowing that you aren't missing anything


----------



## professor_frink

professor_frink said:


> didn't have the courage to hold over lunch. Not in this market. Will wait for a countertrend move and look to get back in




At least the market rallied hard enough that I only got caught trying to short it once

I certainly wasn't expecting this!


----------



## CanOz

Afternoon folks! Have i missed anything?

Been too busy to hardly look at the action...Prof you must have made a killing today on the HS!!!

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Afternoon folks! Have i missed anything?
> 
> Been too busy to hardly look at the action...Prof you must have made a killing today on the HS!!!
> 
> Cheers,




canuck, I can assure you that if I had of seen a 1000 point rally coming in under an hour, I'd have backed the truck up and would  now be making plans for a ferrari

Unfortunately I didn't, recovered my loss on the stopped out short and picked up a couple of bucks beer money for the weekend and ran away thinking I was mighty clever.

Came back a little while later and found the market 400 points higher.Yep, heaps clever frinky

someone send me a photo of a ferrari to torment me like this little girl below


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> canuck, I can assure you that if I had of seen a 1000 point rally coming in under an hour, I'd have backed the truck up and would  now be making plans for a ferrari
> 
> Unfortunately I didn't, recovered my loss on the stopped out short and picked up a couple of bucks beer money for the weekend and ran away thinking I was mighty clever.
> 
> Came back a little while later and found the market 400 points higher.Yep, heaps clever frinky
> 
> someone send me a photo of a ferrari to torment me like this little girl below




LOL! Well they say there will always be more opportunities...maybe tonite?

Cheers and happy scalping!


----------



## wayneL

YIKES!

US Futures just spiked.... Muppet Index spiked 300 pts in a minute... holding about 160 of those now. WTF? News?


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> YIKES!
> 
> US Futures just spiked.... Muppet Index spiked 300 pts in a minute... holding about 160 of those now. WTF? News?



This all I can see so far
8:18Goldman Sachs sees quarter-point cut on or before Sept. 18
8:18Goldman Sachs sees total 0.75 point cut by end of year

But that's Goldman saying it, not Uncle Ben... mind you GS is Benny's broker.


----------



## reece55

wayneL said:


> YIKES!
> 
> US Futures just spiked.... Muppet Index spiked 300 pts in a minute... holding about 160 of those now. WTF? News?




God Wayne, I hope you are long - the volatility in every market atm is amazing and frightfully scary all at the same time.....

All the best mate


----------



## wayneL

Bushman broke the news https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=193056&postcount=28

.5% cut on the discount rate to banks.

I'll refrain from saying what i think.


----------



## wayneL

reece55 said:


> God Wayne, I hope you are long - the volatility in every market atm is amazing and frightfully scary all at the same time.....
> 
> All the best mate



Cheers mate,

Only trade during stock market hours, so on the sidelines till then.

I'm thinking to fade this... but we'll see.


----------



## reece55

wayneL said:


> Bushman broke the news https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=193056&postcount=28
> 
> .5% cut on the discount rate to banks.
> 
> I'll refrain from saying what i think.




You have got to be kidding me, they actually opened the discount window???

This will only exacerbate the problem, where did Bernake get his Economics degree, off a Special K box or something....

Well, long the lenders for short term gain then, I guess..... Or perhaps short after a heady open......?????????

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

Check it out:

Booze for the alcoholics.


----------



## professor_frink

alright ladies and gentlemen,

place your bets for today. Who's fading it and who's jumping on board?? 

Think it might be time for me to convert the U.S $$ that is in my account from my recent trading adventures in the USA back to Aussies. Wonder how long this will calm things down for


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> alright ladies and gentlemen,
> 
> place your bets for today. Who's fading it and who's jumping on board??
> 
> Think it might be time for me to convert the U.S $$ that is in my account from my recent trading adventures in the USA back to Aussies. Wonder how long this will calm things down for



My bias is to fade it, but who knows what the Wall Street leeches are capable of... sharp eye on the internals.

With my money, I am buying gold, baked beans, and an AK47.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> With my money, I am buying gold, baked beans, and an AK47.




Don't forget to get some booze!:drink:


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> With my money, I am buying gold, baked beans, and an AK47.




LOL. Love it. Perfect!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> alright ladies and gentlemen,
> 
> place your bets for today. Who's fading it and who's jumping on board??
> 
> Think it might be time for me to convert the U.S $$ that is in my account from my recent trading adventures in the USA back to Aussies. Wonder how long this will calm things down for




Bloody hell. I covered my shorts on the open of the UK. Went and had a bit of a nap. came back and every thing is up 3%!!!!


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> Don't forget to get some booze!:drink:



Good idea! I'll stock up on Tequila... I'll be able to run the VW on that as well.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Good idea! I'll stock up on Tequila... I'll be able to run the VW on that as well.




If you hurry up and get to mexico, you could probably pay them in USD before they realise that there is some crazy guy in a chopper giving it away!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> If you hurry up and get to mexico, you could probably pay them in USD before they realise that there is some crazy guy in a chopper giving it away!




To quote everyone's favorite, Cramer "this will be the biggest one day rally ever". Not my words.


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> If you hurry up and get to mexico, you could probably pay them in USD before they realise that there is some crazy guy in a chopper giving it away!



Well.. I could do some sweet talking and try and get the _Tequila Reserva_ out of them. 

Article on Tequila


----------



## wayneL

trembling Hand said:


> To quote everyone's favorite, Cramer "this will be the biggest one day rally ever". Not my words.



So we tank then? (Going by Cramers record)  LOL


----------



## wayneL

Get a load of TRIN, opened at 0.1. LOL

Prolly go up a bit, but still looking for the fade, based on TRIN.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Get a load of TRIN, opened at 0.1. LOL
> 
> Prolly go up a bit, but still looking for the fade, based on TRIN.




should be good for a run at the highs after the announcement- would expect a bit of selling pressure there.


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> Get a load of TRIN, opened at 0.1. LOL
> 
> Prolly go up a bit, but still looking for the fade, based on TRIN.




So you thinking a bit off a pull back once the excitement is done or a fall all the way back to flat.

Gee will that look like the end of the world if they hand out life jackets to the passengers of this sinking ship and they say no thanks. I'm going down.


----------



## reece55

And here come the sellers.......

Short in DJIA at 13170....... Might even cash out now.....

Cheers

UPDATE: Cashed out at 13070 - 100 points is nice enough for now.... Think it might be my bed time....


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> alright ladies and gentlemen,
> 
> place your bets for today. Who's fading it and who's jumping on board??
> 
> Think it might be time for me to convert the U.S $$ that is in my account from my recent trading adventures in the USA back to Aussies. Wonder how long this will calm things down for




good plan frink,

I closed out my shorts on the aud for a pretty penny.

went long on the EUD/USD then short on the USD/CDA then saw the aussie coming back with the EURo so went long on the AUD/USD and then the FED cute the rates so you all know what that does to the poor old US$.

now, I am enjoying the ride, not even thinking about the Index, even if i did I have missed the boat! IGXJO is up 208 as I type.

not sure if I am going to hang on to them passed tonight yet.

Good trading guys.


----------



## wayneL

trembling Hand said:


> So you thinking a bit off a pull back once the excitement is done or a fall all the way back to flat.
> 
> Gee will that look like the end of the world if they hand out life jackets to the passengers of this sinking ship and they say no thanks. I'm going down.



When you think about it deeply, this is not a positive announcement. It shows the financial system is up to its ar5e in alligators after only a 10% dip. When people digest that, I wouldn't be surprised to see it down on the day. But nothing surprises me anymore, so equally, it could fly. Basically anything between +500 and - 200 wouldn't be out of order really. 

Will just try to practice Aikido today... stay out of the way of assaults


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> When you think about it deeply, this is not a positive announcement. It shows the financial system is up to its ar5e in alligators after only a 10% dip. When people digest that, I wouldn't be surprised to see it down on the day. But nothing surprises me anymore, so equally, it could fly. Basically anything between +500 and - 200 wouldn't be out of order really.
> 
> Will just try to practice Aikido today... stay out of the way of assaults




Yes this does nothing to save Main street from losing their take now never pay later houses in the back waters of the States. This is about saving Wall Street.


----------



## wayneL

The TRIN trade is working.

We couldn't possibly close the gap.....

.....could we?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> good plan frink,
> 
> I closed out my shorts on the aud for a pretty penny.
> 
> went long on the EUD/USD then short on the USD/CDA then saw the aussie coming back with the EURo so went long on the AUD/USD and then the FED cute the rates so you all know what that does to the poor old US$.
> 
> now, I am enjoying the ride, not even thinking about the Index, even if i did I have missed the boat! IGXJO is up 208 as I type.
> 
> not sure if I am going to hang on to them passed tonight yet.
> 
> Good trading guys.





took profits, time for bed


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> The TRIN trade is working.
> 
> We couldn't possibly close the gap.....
> 
> .....could we?




TRIN now @ 1!


----------



## Trembling Hand

"this will be the biggest one day rally ever" this is looking like another good call.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> The TRIN trade is working.
> 
> We couldn't possibly close the gap.....
> 
> .....could we?


----------



## wayneL

trembling Hand said:


> "this will be the biggest one day rally ever" this is looking like another good call.



****New trading rule:

FADE CRAMER!!   LOL


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> "this will be the biggest one day rally ever" this is looking like another good call.




is that what Cramer said TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trade_It said:


> is that what Cramer said TH?




yeah that was his post on www.realmoney.com this morning!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone just see HK open?
Ran 2.5% in 6 min  

How the hell you meant to trade that?


----------



## CanOz

trembling Hand said:


> Anyone just see HK open?
> Ran 2.5% in 6 min
> 
> How the hell you meant to trade that?




LOL, yeah just saw it too...amazing....can we fade off that?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> LOL, yeah just saw it too...amazing....can we fade off that?




No Idea. Moves like that makes you a bit scared to stand in front of maybe the next push up in to resistance where ever that is? This one looks 50/50 which way its goes.


----------



## CanOz

Still going like a rocket...gotta stop sometime


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Still going like a rocket...gotta stop sometime




You short that second rise? 

Hey Professor you out there today messing up HK?


----------



## CanOz

trembling Hand said:


> You short that second rise?
> 
> Hey Professor you out there today messing up HK?




Shorted the bounce off 6000 but i'm still short and its going at it again..

Doesn't look as solid as it did before lunch though...I'll hang on yet.

You?

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Hey Professor you out there today messing up HK?




afternoon TH,

yes, been getting amongst it in HK- have been working on a couple of ideas for the kospi, so haven't had much time to post. Was a wicked spike right off the open wasn't it! Pretty hard for me to catch those, especially when the opening minute bar has a range of 160 points- I'll always pass on a trade instead of getting long with a stop below a bar like that


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> afternoon TH,
> 
> yes, been getting amongst it in HK- have been working on a couple of ideas for the kospi, so haven't had much time to post. Was a wicked spike right off the open wasn't it! Pretty hard for me to catch those, especially when the opening minute bar has a range of 160 points- I'll always pass on a trade instead of getting long with a stop below a bar like that




Yeah was going to trade it today but just way to fast for this little guy!

Could not see how you get a fill with that kind of action? Just throw a market order out and hope for the best??

Not use to that kind of move after trading the SPI. Even the ES is not that wild. At least it stays on in the DOM screen that was just running harder than i could move my order Book!!


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Yeah was going to trade it today but just way to fast for this little guy!
> 
> Could not see how you get a fill with that kind of action? Just throw a market order out and hope for the best??
> 
> Not use to that kind of move after trading the SPI. Even the ES is not that wild. At least it stays on in the DOM screen that was just running harder than i could move my order Book!!




For those kinds of spikes, it can be very hard to get a good fill, which is why I generally leave them alone. If you spend a little while watching the DOM for the HSI & HHI, you'll figure out pretty quickly how you can fill orders with fairly minimal slippage(if you use market orders). Both of these markets do a lot of backfilling within a trend. Due to the book being so thin, after someone has come in and cleaned out one side, it will often spend a little while backfilling whilst the orders start filling it up again. Then it gets dumped/bid up again.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor
Just had my first trade on the HSI. a Short!

That is SICK AS!

Once it starts moving there is just no liquidity. Cannot believe the moves. Had to just hang on and try not look at the P&L. Just through out a market order to close. WOW!


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> professor
> Just had my first trade on the HSI. a Short!
> 
> That is SICK AS!
> 
> Once it starts moving there is just no liquidity. Cannot believe the moves. Had to just hang on and try not look at the P&L. Just through out a market order to close. WOW!




Nice work TH

It's quite an experience when it gets going, isn't it!

I've heard a few other traders that have been trading it longer than I have that the lack of liquidity during this correction has been a lot worse than in previous ones. There has been a bit of talk about the recent Chinese move to open up the HK markets to it's citizens having an impact on some of the moves. Considering how thin the book is during normal market conditions, it wouldn't surprise me that something like that could have an impact.

One guy over on ET that has been trading it for a few years now has actually stopped trading it for awhile and is looking at other markets. Hopefully it's only a temporary problem, as I don't think I'll be able to trade it as much if it stays like this. I'll have a heart attack before I'm 30!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Nice work TH
> 
> It's quite an experience when it gets going, isn't it!
> 
> 
> One guy over on ET that has been trading it for a few years now has actually stopped trading it for awhile and is looking at other markets. Hopefully it's only a temporary problem, as I don't think I'll be able to trade it as much if it stays like this. I'll have a heart attack before I'm 30!




Yeah didn't really fell like trading more like standing in front of a pokie machine paying out.

Isn't that typical your first trade is aways a ripper, sucks you in then slowly burns you over the coming weeks. Think i will just play this one very selectively.
Especially as I tend to fade breakouts. Think you would get cut to bits in this one after a couple of days.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Yeah didn't really fell like trading more like standing in front of a pokie machine paying out.




That's gold. I'll have to remember that one



trembling Hand said:


> Isn't that typical your first trade is aways a ripper, sucks you in then slowly burns you over the coming weeks. Think i will just play this one very selectively.
> Especially as I tend to fade breakouts. Think you would get cut to bits in this one after a couple of days.




Yeah I'd be very careful fading breakouts on this thing! When(if) the market calms down, you won't get burnt quite as bad fading breakouts, but it can still be pretty bad if you pick the wrong moment to do so.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Yeah I'd be very careful fading breakouts on this thing! When(if) the market calms down, you won't get burnt quite as bad fading breakouts, but it can still be pretty bad if you pick the wrong moment to do so.




aye its not nice when that happens - trying to fade a breakout a few weeks back I had HSI jump more than 200pts over a stop when I forgot to close before the lunch break.  haven't touched it since


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> aye its not nice when that happens - trying to fade a breakout a few weeks back I had HSI jump more than 200pts over a stop when I forgot to close before the lunch break.  haven't touched it since




Good grief Ed.

In regards to the SPX, ASX200, and the USD/JPY...everything seems to be a critical juncture tonite, anyone see different?


Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Good grief Ed.
> 
> In regards to the SPX, ASX200, and the USD/JPY...everything seems to be a critical juncture tonite, anyone see different?
> 
> 
> Cheers,




yep won't be doing that again!

just to add to that Can ASX has a P&F count out of the recent lows to 6,220 which we've pretty much achieved


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> yep won't be doing that again!
> 
> just to add to that Can ASX has a P&F count out of the recent lows to 6,220 which we've pretty much achieved




Jobs data out too, greenback dropping a back a bit....ASX200 still holding up.

cheers,


----------



## Edwood

copied from Livecharts

"Good Morning, all markets are trading higher today, seems like all the problems of the world were solved when the FED lowered the discount rate half a point. Yesterday four banks that did not need to borrowed 500 million each from the discount window as a gesture to show you can actually do it. Maybe that solved all the problems eh? That 18:01 spike in the SnP futures is the oddest thing I have ever seen. In one minute 5,886 up tick futures traded against 1,772 on down ticks. In 5 minutes 8,557 up tick contracts against 3,659 down ticks. Think about this, who did that? Who bought 8,557 futures contracts in five minutes when the market was closed? Today projected cash market high is at 1473. We should get there in about five minutes due to the buy programs that the futures spread will trigger. What happens the remainder of the day will be revealing."


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> copied from Livecharts
> 
> "Good Morning, all markets are trading higher today, seems like all the problems of the world were solved when the FED lowered the discount rate half a point. Yesterday four banks that did not need to borrowed 500 million each from the discount window as a gesture to show you can actually do it. Maybe that solved all the problems eh? That 18:01 spike in the SnP futures is the oddest thing I have ever seen. In one minute 5,886 up tick futures traded against 1,772 on down ticks. In 5 minutes 8,557 up tick contracts against 3,659 down ticks. Think about this, who did that? Who bought 8,557 futures contracts in five minutes when the market was closed? Today projected cash market high is at 1473. We should get there in about five minutes due to the buy programs that the futures spread will trigger. What happens the remainder of the day will be revealing."




are they referring to the open of yesterday's night session?


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> are they referring to the open of yesterday's night session?




morning Prof - after the close on US Wed night if you check out the S&P all sessions chart you'll see an out of hours rise


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> morning Prof - after the close on US Wed night if you check out the S&P all sessions chart you'll see an out of hours rise




ok I see it- it is definitely odd, but I'm getting to the point where I'm seeing something odd almost every day in this market! I'm not sure what to make of it

Think I need to give up trying to understand that kind of stuff in the current market and just stick to the price action.  The brain will fail on me soon if I don't


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> ok I see it- it is definitely odd, but I'm getting to the point where I'm seeing something odd almost every day in this market! I'm not sure what to make of it
> 
> Think I need to give up trying to understand that kind of stuff in the current market and just stick to the price action.  The brain will fail on me soon if I don't




yeah I know what you mean!  trying to figure it out can be energy wasted - interesting that someone is up to something sneaky all the same.. was posted by Ian fwiw


----------



## professor_frink

You been watching the currencies this morning Ed???

Once again we are getting some freaking huge moves very early in the morning!

Yen has made a very nice move this morning too- 50+pip move down in the spot before the asian open. Could be one to keep an eye on today, as the rally in most of the Asian markets looks a little overdone- probably won't take much to trigger a down move, at least on an intraday basis.


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> You been watching the currencies this morning Ed???
> 
> Once again we are getting some freaking huge moves very early in the morning!
> 
> Yen has made a very nice move this morning too- 50+pip move down in the spot before the asian open. Could be one to keep an eye on today, as the rally in most of the Asian markets looks a little overdone- probably won't take much to trigger a down move, at least on an intraday basis.




Carry trade back on. Very bullish feel in the markets at the moment, comments on Bloomberg this morning....

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> You been watching the currencies this morning Ed???
> 
> Once again we are getting some freaking huge moves very early in the morning!




no I haven't Prof, thanks for flagging it tho.  am popping in & out a bit today so only really looking at SPI


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> no I haven't Prof, thanks for flagging it tho.  am popping in & out a bit today so only really looking at SPI




all good- yen has recovered somewhat since I posted.


----------



## Edwood

The Chinese authorities have announced that for the first time, citizens will be permitted to own foreign shares. Given the nerve-shredding gyrations on Western stock markets, that sounds like a good idea. Millions of enthusiastic Chinese share buyers would be very helpful right now, underpinning stock exchanges weakened by our own flight from riskier assets. 
It will happen, although it seems, in typical Chinese style, to be something that will evolve slowly rather than burst forth upon the international scene with all the impact of a brightly decorated dancing dragon in a Chinese new year festival.However the longer-term effects will be as dramatic, and, as they say over there, even the longest journey starts with a single step. The beginnings are modest enough. China's currency regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, has announced that Chinese citizens with a Bank of China account in the northern city of Tianjin will be allowed to invest in foreign equities under a pilot scheme.

The regulator didn't specify an investment maximum, and nor did they say when the trial will start. Purchases will be limited to Hong Kong-listed shares, mostly firmly centred on the Hong Kong/Chinese economy but with a sprinkling of stocks that also offer a wider exposure to the world, such as HSBC and Standard Chartered.


----------



## Edwood




----------



## Trembling Hand

I love that chart Edwood. You going short here? or maybe waiting for confirmation in the horoscopes.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> I love that chart Edwood. You going short here? or maybe waiting for confirmation in the horoscopes.




its a beauty isn't it - these recurring 'corrections' have nothing to do with markets getting out of balance, its the moons fault!!


----------



## Edwood

whoa check out Hang Seng


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> whoa check out Hang Seng




Looks like we could get a ripper of a Short sqeeze coming up. Look at the Volume picking up.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> I love that chart Edwood. You going short here? or maybe waiting for confirmation in the horoscopes.




oh yee of little faith TH - the eclipse has delivered! Dow currently off 230pts


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> oh yee of little faith TH - the eclipse has delivered! Dow currently off 230pts



LOL 

Volatility makes a welcome return. :bier:


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> oh yee of little faith TH - the eclipse has delivered! Dow currently off 230pts



The XJO and XAO are going to cop it in the neck, after failing to take out the previous high. I assume the other major indices are the same. A retest of the lows across the board looks on the cards.


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> oh yee of little faith TH - the eclipse has delivered!



Holy crap!! This is gonna turn me into a believer in all this stuff. 

Me and Mrs were out looking at the eclipse and we both were laughing that the market will prolly tank. LOL


----------



## Sean K

Start of wave 5?

Maybe wrong thread.

On increased vol? eeek.


----------



## CanOz

Been waiting for this for the last few days since Edwood's post...wanted to try and catch all the move down this time...been short since 6171, so i missed the first 20-40 pts. (upper RH corner)

Just added another position.

....might be beer money for the next few years! I only had a few bucks left in the IG account too!

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

Key fib time increment on the 28th August (SP500). Next intermediate time increment is on the 6th Sep, so there is a good trend will be down till then.

This could be the start of something big, although my preferred scenario is the market finds support on the 6th Sep and puts in a choppy trend till 28th Sep and then gets buried


----------



## Edwood

yes the test now will be whether we can put in a higher low.  good times - keep 'em rolling! 

the eclipse was pretty amazing tho eh, the moon looked very close & sort of suspended, like an orange helium party balloon thats been released but with no breeze to take it away


----------



## Edwood

and can't get too excited - could just be in wave 4 of this rise out of the recent low (pic taken about 7pm last night so doesn't include the o/night drop)


----------



## wavepicker

Edwood said:


> .  good times - keep 'em rolling!




Good times for the bears!!


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> ....might be beer money for the next few years! I only had a few bucks left in the IG account too!




your shout soon then Can?  so long as you're not offering Chinese vodka


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Been waiting for this for the last few days since Edwood's post...wanted to try and catch all the move down this time...been short since 6171, so i missed the first 20-40 pts. (upper RH corner)
> 
> Just added another position.
> 
> ....might be beer money for the next few years! I only had a few bucks left in the IG account too!
> 
> Cheers,




nice work canuck

Hope you make a killing


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> oh yee of little faith TH - the eclipse has delivered! Dow currently off 230pts




Edwood I’m a believer now
The second solar eclipse of 2007 is a partial eclipse of the Sun, on *September 11*, 
I'm stocking up the tin food and water and digging a hole in the floor for a hideout.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Edwood I’m a believer now
> The second solar eclipse of 2007 is a partial eclipse of the Sun, on *September 11*,
> I'm stocking up the tin food and water and digging a hole in the floor for a hideout.




oo-er!  you're even researching when the next one is!  Sept 11....    (fade in theme tune to Jaws...)

make sure you get broadband in your hole


----------



## CFD

Edwood said:


> make sure you get broadband in your hole


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> your shout soon then Can?  so long as you're not offering Chinese vodka




Got a bottle in the cabinet, not sure you'll be back for seconds though!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Got a bottle in the cabinet, not sure you'll be back for seconds though!
> 
> Cheers,




no fear there!  I still have a bottle from 1999, it only comes out for guests who are being loud & obnoxious at parties.  can't remember what it is but it has some insane alcohol content.  should be labeled "paint stripper" instead of Vodka!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Honkers is going nuts again. what a market!!


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> no fear there!  I still have a bottle from 1999, it only comes out for guests who are being loud & obnoxious at parties.  can't remember what it is but it has some insane alcohol content.  should be labeled "paint stripper" instead of Vodka!




I just heard those comments recently actually!

Gave back over $500 of my shorts and cashed out with Beer money only..just went long on the DJI index. If i didn't have to work i might have saved some dough today...oh well, this is fun.

Cheers,


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> Been waiting for this for the last few days since Edwood's post...wanted to try and catch all the move down this time...been short since 6171, so i missed the first 20-40 pts. (upper RH corner)
> 
> Just added another position.
> 
> ....might be beer money for the next few years! I only had a few bucks left in the IG account too!
> 
> Cheers,



Congrats man. Hope you have many more good trades to come.


----------



## dubiousinfo

Edwood said:


> no fear there!  I still have a bottle from 1999, it only comes out for guests who are being loud & obnoxious at parties.  can't remember what it is but it has some insane alcohol content.  should be labeled "paint stripper" instead of Vodka!




I once saw a bottle of Polish Drinking Spirit at a bottleshop. It was labeled as 80% alcohol content (160% Proof), self preservation told me not to buy it.


----------



## wayneL

The "is the Fed going to cut?" guessing game is giving the market whiplash.

My "guess".... They will cave in to the Wall St @ssholes and cut the base rate in September.

The negative consequences have been discussed _ad naseum_ here and all over the freaking internet... as Erin Burnett said - Armageddon.

This is apparently bullish  and will spark a heated rally.

Shorts should be very %$#ing careful from here until October IMO.


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> The "is the Fed going to cut?" guessing game is giving the market whiplash.
> 
> My "guess".... They will cave in to the Wall St @ssholes and cut the base rate in September.
> 
> The negative consequences have been discussed _ad naseum_ here and all over the freaking internet... as Erin Burnett said - Armageddon.
> 
> This is apparently bullish  and will spark a heated rally.
> 
> Shorts should be very %$#ing careful from here until October IMO.





for my 2cents worth I think you're probably right Wayne.  SPI is looking pretty strong, has retraced 78.6% of its drop while US is still only around 50%.  Also noted a headline on marketwatch overnight quoting Ben as saying he is "ready to act"


----------



## Trembling Hand

wayneL said:


> The "is the Fed going to cut?" guessing game is giving the market whiplash.
> 
> My "guess".... They will cave in to the Wall St @ssholes and cut the base rate in September.
> 
> The negative consequences have been discussed _ad naseum_ here and all over the freaking internet... as Erin Burnett said - Armageddon.
> 
> This is apparently bullish  and will spark a heated rally.
> 
> Shorts should be very %$#ing careful from here until October IMO.




Way to many late Bears at this camp. Think they are going to get knocked off by the Ranger in his annual cull. We have some huge open interest in most Futures all over the place.  Any short squeeze will be very painful this baby could really run here. Even with a knocked around economy.


----------



## wavepicker

I tend to agree with Wayne re his views with the potential fed actions.

IMO market will get quite choppy in the next few weeks, possibly even range bound in that time frame (wave B) awaiting a fed response.
 My thinking is this will be a springboard for one last push to recovery highs but still below the all time highs(wave C) to finish this countertrend(if in fact that is what it is) by late Sept/early October when a next leg down starts again.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

We are all very quite today.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> We are all very quite today.




I'm in the sin bin right now


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> I'm in the sin bin right now




and I am saving my energy for a poker night - hope you've been giving it some TH!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> and I am saving my energy for a poker night - hope you've been giving it some TH!




Been playing the long side all day on the SPI & HSI. Have made a nice profit but ever time I sell I then have to go back in and buy higher. 

Boy is it Bullish out there.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> Edwood I’m a believer now
> The second solar eclipse of 2007 is a partial eclipse of the Sun, on *September 11*,
> I'm stocking up the tin food and water and digging a hole in the floor for a hideout.




get your shorts ready that is in time for the thousands of put options expiring around then.......


----------



## Edwood

this probably isn't the right thread for it but it'll do.  another kiwi finance house folds, this time after a run of funds - but it only took TWO DAYS of runs to close it down.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10461596

"LDC was one of all the finance companies which responded positively last week to a Securities Commission query about their financial fitness.  Perpetual Trust chief executive Louise Edwards told NZPA that LDC had experienced a run on its funds only over the last two days.

She said Nelson-based LDC had around half of its funds on call and its investors, both those who had funds on call and debenture holders, had rung demanding their money back.

She described the run as unprecedented.

"Liquidity is a real problem particularly if people have on call deposits," she said.

Ms Edwards said LDC was fundamentally a good company with good assets but was unable to sustain such a run.

It had assets across the board, but particularly in commercial property.

She believed investors would eventually get all their money back.

She said calling in the receivers was a "holding action" so that all investors would be treated fairly.

In the past 16 months eight finance companies have gone into receivership, owing investors $1.14 billion.
"


----------



## Edwood

The cost of money is rising fast. An excert from today's Rockefeller news letter -

Not every bank management is smart and reasonable. The WSJ reports that 3-month LIBOR, which averaged 5.34-5.36% this year to August, traded at 5.7% yesterday. “The Libor [rate] hasn't been this far above the base short-term rates set by central banks since the Enron and WorldCom collapses in 2001, according to the British Bankers' Association, which sets the rate.” The article is clearly written by youngsters who don’t know the history of LIBOR and didn’t bother to find out. They fail to mention that transactions done in LIBOR escape Fed reserve requirements and other regs. Some US mortgages are based on LIBOR, which makes no economic sense, along with some $3 trillion in commercial paper. (We know banks are panicking (or feeling exceptionally greedy) because we got a letter from
Bank of America raising the interest rate on the company credit card from 8.9% to 20.24%. Bah.)

- 8.9% to 20.24% in one go!


----------



## Seaking

Anybody know what just happened!! YM down 70 in a blink....


----------



## professor_frink

Seaking said:


> Anybody know what just happened!! YM down 70 in a blink....




employment data just came out

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajhV9Gbe1GOo&refer=news


----------



## Seaking

professor_frink said:


> employment data just came out
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajhV9Gbe1GOo&refer=news




Got it now.. Thanks m8


----------



## professor_frink

Seaking said:


> Got it now.. Thanks m8




no worries at all. The link below should keep you up to date with what's going on-

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


----------



## Seaking

I don't trade the US but may just stay up and see what comes of this. Thankyou for the link Bob..


----------



## Boggo

I dont believe it, I was (almost) ready to go short on the 3 minute chart of the Wall Street $2 mini at 13320 on the ATR, decided to wander off and make a coffee and pinch some of the other halfs "secret" stash of expensive choccies. When I came back it was down 80 pts .... lesson today kiddies, dont touch the choccies !!  







[/IMG]


----------



## Edwood

Sept 11 tomorrow innit


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI is showing us how to do it


----------



## Edwood

HSI selling off pretty solidly from the open


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> HSI selling off pretty solidly from the open




I would think that this index is about as good as it gets for daytrading. It is always action packed i'm doing more and more on the HSI and less and less on the SPI every day.


----------



## Broadway

I like how the HSI starts at 1145am, around the same time the SPI volume declines pre-lunch.

And the mini HSI has no lack of liquidity or volatility as well.


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> HSI selling off pretty solidly from the open



I know it finished off pretty well... but could this be the reason for downward momentum?

Looks like the Shanghai could very well be Shanghaid in the near future...


----------



## wayneL

Nice pivots!


----------



## Speiro

Hey ya'll

I was wondering what vehicle you guys use to trade international indices. What's a good platform to use? I'm kinda keen to start.

Speiro


----------



## professor_frink

Speiro said:


> Hey ya'll
> 
> I was wondering what vehicle you guys use to trade international indices. What's a good platform to use? I'm kinda keen to start.
> 
> Speiro




Evening Speiro,

I use Interactive brokers for all of my trading-

http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php

They have pretty well all of the major international futures available, as well as quite a few of the major stock and options markets too.

Good platform, very cheap brokerage, and free data. Hard to beat IMO.


----------



## wiseguy

Hi PF, just a quick question

i'm about to open up an account with IB and was wondering what charting package would you recommend? I've heard good things about Quotetracker and Ninja tracker. Are there any others (reasonably priced of course )?
ALso are orders place with the TWS software, or could i use the above mentioned packages?

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

wiseguy said:


> Hi PF, just a quick question
> 
> i'm about to open up an account with IB and was wondering what charting package would you recommend? I've heard good things about Quotetracker and Ninja tracker. Are there any others (reasonably priced of course )?
> ALso are orders place with the TWS software, or could i use the above mentioned packages?
> 
> Cheers




I use Ninja Trader with IB. I think its pretty good. The charts are as good as any other software I have used. What I like about Ninja Trader is the reporting and tracking of your trades. Makes it very easy to keep a detailed journal of your trades. As I trade a lot it makes the job very easy. 

Another great function is the replay function. You can replay the days trading tick by tick at any speed and it will show your entries and exits on the chart as the action plays out. Very good for learning and reviewing your trading decisions. This is about 1000 times more useful than trying to learn from looking at static charts that are days or weeks old

You can just use it for charting and IB TWS for order entry and then it is free . If you want to use the Ninja Trader order execution and tracking part then you have to pay for the full version.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Everything is getting smoked. Welcome back Volatility

Good old fashion run on a bank. When was the last time that happened???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avrOgElXKYSA&refer=home

HSI, UK,  US futures all getting smashed. Yen on a run. Loving it!


----------



## wavepicker

trembling Hand said:


> Everything is getting smoked. Welcome back Volatility
> 
> Good old fashion run on a bank. When was the last time that happened???
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avrOgElXKYSA&refer=home
> 
> HSI, UK,  US futures all getting smashed. Yen on a run. Loving it!




Just temporary weakness for 1-3 days IMO TI.  Market will be stuck in this consolidation for a little while before finally breaking out to a new recovery high to finish the pattern which should be later this month/early next.

Just my 2c worth


----------



## professor_frink

wiseguy said:


> Hi PF, just a quick question
> 
> i'm about to open up an account with IB and was wondering what charting package would you recommend? I've heard good things about Quotetracker and Ninja tracker. Are there any others (reasonably priced of course )?
> ALso are orders place with the TWS software, or could i use the above mentioned packages?
> 
> Cheers




morning wiseguy,

sorry for the late reply. Haven't used Ninja before, but have heard good things about it. If you just need intraday charts without needing to collect much historical data, then Quotetracker is well worth the small investment required. I also use amibroker, it won't collect IB's data exactly as it comes in, the minimum you can use with ami is a 5 second chart, but is better served set up to store data in 1 minute intervals. If that isn't a problem for you, I would recommend having a look at it. There are a couple of markets that I follow that I prefer to use tick charts for- which is why I still have quotetracker installed on my machine. It will do Tick charts, volume charts and range charts quite well.

I did a trial of Sierra charts and Ensign earlier on this year- Sierra is good, in that it will collect IB's data exactly as it comes in(meaning you can use tick charts if you want), and would also store quite a bit of historical data, but I didn't like it as much as ami(mainly due to the fact that I know how to do some basic coding for ami, and wasn't particularly keen to learn a whole new way of doing things with Sierra).

I quite liked Ensign, but it was quite a bit more expensive than Sierra($40USD per month), and wouldn't let me do a backfill on the HK markets, which automatically ruled it out for me).

In addition to a charting package, it might be worth looking at a front end package for TWS as well(all depending what type of trading you use). For intraday trading, they are quite valuable.

Hope this helps


----------



## acouch

wiseguy,

i use 

www.bracket-trader.com

which is compatible with ib

also a one off payment..very cheap combo.

ac


----------



## Edwood

Alliance & Leicester down 30% in the last 30mins of trading in London, now 575p down from 1060-odd within the last 10 days


----------



## aussiebuggaa

Wiseguy,

I assume that you will be trading the E-minis?  I’ve just opened an account with Infinity Brokerages and found them to be pretty awesome!!!  They’re some what little bit cheaper than IB in terms of commission $4.40 round trip and the margin is pretty low ($500/ ES contract).  The front end is the InfinityAT, it is similar to Ninja Trader (without the great report management of the Ninja trader). There is about quarter of a second lag on the Infinity DOM level II data when comparing it to the Ninja, but I think it is livable.

For charting, Infinity comes with free data for Sierra Chart, so you will have to pay $25/month to use the chart.  The data feeds are from Transact which is pretty solid, so it’s a great combination with Sierra Chart (Solid software package which I am using).  However, I signed up with IQFeeds, $50 / months + $30 months CME exchange fee.  I had to use IQFeeds because data from Transact is not PURE tick (same with IB) and I needed the pure tick for my chart setups.  I scalp the ES, so every tick count!!  So if you’re not a scalper then you can just live with the free data from Transact and pay $25/month for Sierra Chart.

BTW, I have IB account but just didn’t like their Book Trader and the way they do the order fills.  You can also go with Tradestation, they have awesome Charting package which comes for free (+exchange fee) if you trades more than 10 contracts/month otherwise $99/month + exchange fee.  But beware, I heard that Tradestation is pretty crap at filling your orders as well, but again, if you’re not a scalper then it should not be an issue for you.

Cheers,
AussieBuggaa


----------



## Edwood

big bad wolfe forming on Dow


----------



## Edwood

here's the pic to accompany the prev post - little wolfe achieved his target, big wolfe targeting mid Oct


----------



## Trembling Hand

Another large range day on the HSI. And another record close. 
This index is nuts. Anyone else enjoying the mad day trading action?

Today there has been nearly a 3% range from low to high. That is pretty nice to day trade when you compare it to other indexes.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Another large range day on the HSI. And another record close.
> This index is nuts. Anyone else enjoying the mad day trading action?
> 
> Today there has been nearly a 3% range from low to high. That is pretty nice to day trade when you compare it to other indexes.




Have a look at the H-shares for today TH, you'll probably be more impressed with it's performance, up 4.24% today. Was up about 5% at one stage in the afternoon session


----------



## wiseguy

im currently getting 4-5 point spread with IB on the MHI, Is that normal?


----------



## professor_frink

wiseguy said:


> im currently getting 4-5 point spread with IB on the MHI, Is that normal?




yeah that sounds about right wiseguy.


----------



## professor_frink

afternoon folks,

Has anyone on here had any experience trading the dax? Would love to hear from anyone that has traded it.

I'm slightly concerned about possible order latency, considering how far away we are from the exchange. How have others found it?


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> afternoon folks,
> 
> Has anyone on here had any experience trading the dax? Would love to hear from anyone that has traded it.
> 
> I'm slightly concerned about possible order latency, considering how far away we are from the exchange. How have others found it?



I have a dabble on the stoxx50 which is the same exchange; have not noticed any problems like that.

Cheers


----------



## onemore

Prof 
I made the mistake once of trading the DAX using  third party charting  separate  to my trading platform.

The intra day charts lagged the platform data slightly,so sometimes the chart would indicate that you were making money ,but the order platform was actually showing that you were losing .

It wouldnt matter to much, if you were holding longer time frames but for scalping it was a joke.

Anyway thats fixed I get fast fills and only minor slippage now . As you Know 1 pt is approx $40 AUD
Most of the time when I trade it ,the spread is about Half a point its nice and liquid.

Cheers   Onemore


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I have a dabble on the stoxx50 which is the same exchange; have not noticed any problems like that.
> 
> Cheers




cheers Wayne. Didn't want to go off and do the work to find a decent way of extracting money from it, to find I don't get filled half the time due to the order taking forever to get to market!



onemore said:


> Prof
> I made the mistake once of trading the DAX using  third party charting  separate  to my trading platform.
> 
> The intra day charts lagged the platform data slightly,so sometimes the chart would indicate that you were making money ,but the order platform was actually showing that you were losing .
> 
> It wouldnt matter to much, if you were holding longer time frames but for scalping it was a joke.
> 
> Anyway thats fixed I get fast fills and only minor slippage now . As you Know 1 pt is approx $40 AUD
> Most of the time when I trade it ,the spread is about Half a point its nice and liquid.
> 
> Cheers   Onemore




Thanks onemore. If I end up having a crack, it will be through IB with their data feed for charting, so hopefully that won't be an issue. It most definitely looks liquid enough to throw a few contracts around. Might be a good replacement for the HSI if I can find a decent way of attacking it


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> cheers Wayne. Didn't want to go off and do the work to find a decent way of extracting money from it, to find I don't get filled half the time due to the order taking forever to get to market!
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks onemore. If I end up having a crack, it will be through IB with their data feed for charting, so hopefully that won't be an issue. It most definitely looks liquid enough to throw a few contracts around. Might be a good replacement for the HSI if I can find a decent way of attacking it




Frink why are you giving up on HSI?? I'm doing more and more on it and less on the SPI. I think I have found my niche. Yesterday I did 60 round trips :nuts:

This is just a guess but you would think the IB fills would be about the same for every market. And the SPI would be just as slow as any market as IB is in Hong Kong an order has to go from Aus to HK then back to SFE not much diff from Aus to HK to Europe or US. Just a guess.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Frink why are you giving up on HSI?? I'm doing more and more on it and less on the SPI. I think I have found my niche. Yesterday I did 60 round trips :nuts:




Will have a look at it again when(if) the current volatility gets back to a more normal level, but for the time being, I'm leaving it alone. The book has completely changed since the recent correction, and I'm having a hard time getting a good feel for the order flow That, combined with ever increasing gaps beneath the first line of the depth has me a little concerned about trading it with my current strategy. 

Or maybe I just need to find a new way of trading it.



trembling Hand said:


> This is just a guess but you would think the IB fills would be about the same for every market. And the SPI would be just as slow as any market as IB is in Hong Kong an order has to go from Aus to HK then back to SFE not much diff from Aus to HK to Europe or US. Just a guess.




You're probably correct- I think I should get in contact with someone from IB to get these kinds of questions answered, so I know exactly where I stand.


----------



## Edwood

current Dax chart Prof from TPB, cheers


----------



## professor_frink

cheers Ed

I've been having a look at a couple of the other markets in Europe as well. Don't mind the look of the FTSE, SMI and CAC40. You traded any of these Ed?


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> cheers Ed
> 
> I've been having a look at a couple of the other markets in Europe as well. Don't mind the look of the FTSE, SMI and CAC40. You traded any of these Ed?




no worries G 

only on s/bet a/c, SMI have only done swings on it, when shorts are looming it often comes off before the others so its good to keep an eye on.  Haven't done anything with CAC.  FTSE is OK but can be choppy & after the first 2-3 hours tends to go to sleep until US open, but for our timezone those first few hours should give you enough.  it often gap opens too on the back of US o/n.  Dax is my preference but these last few days its a swift move at the open then rangebound until US open but I'm in bed by then so have been missing the action.  yesterday was about 20pt range for the whole day!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> no worries G
> 
> only on s/bet a/c, SMI have only done swings on it, when shorts are looming it often comes off before the others so its good to keep an eye on.  Haven't done anything with CAC.  FTSE is OK but can be choppy & after the first 2-3 hours tends to go to sleep until US open, but for our timezone those first few hours should give you enough.  it often gap opens too on the back of US o/n.  Dax is my preference but these last few days its a swift move at the open then rangebound until US open but I'm in bed by then so have been missing the action.  yesterday was about 20pt range for the whole day!




Yeah I've noticed that about Europe- some days seem great, others are almost like a holding pattern until the U.S opens. Think I might have to try and find a way to play the gaps on the SMI & FTSE- seems like the only time of day where there will definitely be movement.


----------



## wayneL

Bob,

Check out the bund too. That can be a fun contract to trade. FWIW

IB code GBL


----------



## onemore

Prof

I don't like the CAC-40 not enough band for buck.
The FSTE is good .I disagree about it being to choppy i dont think its as whippy and taily, as the DAX most times.
I suppose it depends on your time frame and what your trading plan is.

cheers


----------



## Edwood

onemore said:


> Prof
> 
> I don't like the CAC-40 not enough band for buck.
> The FSTE is good .I disagree about it being to choppy i dont think its as whippy and taily, as the DAX most times.
> I suppose it depends on your time frame and what your trading plan is.
> 
> cheers




fair point onemore, just have to look at the first couple of hours today on Dax & FTSE to compare.  FTSE definitely the better place to be the last couple of days anyway


----------



## professor_frink

onemore said:


> Prof
> 
> I don't like the CAC-40 not enough band for buck.
> The FSTE is good .I disagree about it being to choppy i dont think its as whippy and taily, as the DAX most times.
> I suppose it depends on your time frame and what your trading plan is.
> 
> cheers




Cheers for the feedback onemore

Probably will try and look at getting something similar going to my SPI methods- basically will be looking for the quick pops up and down within a trend, and will be looking at sub 30 minute hold times(quite often a lot less). So I'll probably be looking at 1 minute charts, maybe 2 max, will have to see what I can come up with to suit my very impatient style of trading

Don't think the ESTX is going to be suitable for that style of trading, and the DAX might need a different approach. The SMI and FTSE seem to be clear winners based on the minimal data I've got right now. Because I'm a dirty cheap so and so, I have skimped out on the data I'm getting from IB, so don't really know how the FTSE depth is at this stage- for some reason I get the full depth for the SMI with the Euronext  level 1 market data, and it looks pretty nice- more than enough for the small retail punter, but not so many contracts sitting in the depth that it will get congested at the 1 level.



wayneL said:


> Bob,
> 
> Check out the bund too. That can be a fun contract to trade. FWIW
> 
> IB code GBL




Cheers Wayne, just fired  a chart of it up. Looks like we have another contender


----------



## wayneL

SMI looks interesting. I've not looked at that one before.


----------



## Edwood

some of the MT4 brokers cover FTSE Prof, cash & futures - so you could get some historic data there.  I'll find out which ones


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> some of the MT4 brokers cover FTSE Prof, cash & futures - so you could get some historic data there.  I'll find out which ones




Cheers Ed, that would be good. North Finance only has the DAX in Europe.


----------



## Edwood

try moneyrain or whc Prof


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> try moneyrain or whc Prof




Shall do. Thanks for that


----------



## wiseguy

another vote for the WHC demo. they have quite a few indices (DAX, FTSE, EStox, Nikkei mini, the usual US ones) and the usual FX pairs.

http://www.whcforex.com/mt4/down

you'll also find the indices are a bit off during the roll over periods.


----------



## professor_frink

Hope you didn't get caught in the death spikes on the HSI this morning trembling hand.

For anyone who wasn't watching,

T&S just after the open went something like this

27238
27238
27234
27165
27165
27158
27238
27235
27239
27235
27159
27130
27130
27101
27220

And all of this happened in the space of about 7 seconds


----------



## professor_frink

and not one to be left behind in the competition for world's wildest index, the H-shares went on a 200 point rally...... in about 20 seconds. 

Shame really, these markets were quite good to trade earlier on in the year


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Hope you didn't get caught in the death spikes on the HSI this morning trembling hand.
> 
> For anyone who wasn't watching,
> 
> T&S just after the open went something like this
> 
> 27238
> 27238
> 27234
> 27165
> 27165
> 27158
> 27238
> 27235
> 27239
> 27235
> 27159
> 27130
> 27130
> 27101
> 27220
> 
> And all of this happened in the space of about 7 seconds




Actually Prof. I am loving the action. Doing better $ wise than anything I have ever traded before. Funny thing is though I've been losing on the SPI!!

It seems the fast and furious action on the HSI which I'm getting more accustomed to has messed up what I'm doing with the SPI. :screwy:

No complaints though. A buck is a buck no matter where it comes from.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Actually Prof. I am loving the action. Doing better $ wise than anything I have ever traded before. Funny thing is though I've been losing on the SPI!!
> 
> It seems the fast and furious action on the HSI which I'm getting more accustomed to has messed up what I'm doing with the SPI. :screwy:
> 
> No complaints though. A buck is a buck no matter where it comes from.




yeah the SPI is pretty sedate by comparison, it's a big switch going from one to the other, something I struggled with as well. 

Been trying to figure out what has changed with the HSI recently- volume isn't noticeably higher than it was previously in the higher timeframes, however punch up a 15 second chart and there is a huge difference in how much trading is going on compared with May.  It's almost like there has been an explosion of 1 lot scalpers over the past couple of months, and they have replaced some of the bigger players. Either that, or some of the bigger players have changed the way they approach the market.

A couple more days, and I might be able to figure something out for this thing.

Maybe


----------



## professor_frink

decided to fire up the sim for the afternoon session on the HSI. Went 4 and 2 for 100 points. The important part for me was that max heat on a trade taken was 12 points, and didn't need a stop of bigger than 16 for any of the setups.

Think I may have found a way back into this thing

Bring on Monday!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> decided to fire up the sim for the afternoon session on the HSI. Went 4 and 2 for 100 points. The important part for me was that max heat on a trade taken was 12 points, and didn't need a stop of bigger than 16 for any of the setups.
> 
> Think I may have found a way back into this thing
> 
> Bring on Monday!




Sorry professor. You will have to hang out till tomorrow for the Hang Seng. Just like me. I'm pretty disappointed that they are closed today. Going on a holiday next week for a month and really going to have withdrawals from the mad action on the HSI. I'm completely hooked on it now. And now that's one less day to juice some action from.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Sorry professor. You will have to hang out till tomorrow for the Hang Seng. Just like me. I'm pretty disappointed that they are closed today. Going on a holiday next week for a month and really going to have withdrawals from the mad action on the HSI. I'm completely hooked on it now. And now that's one less day to juice some action from.




yeah didn't realise until after I posted that that they were shut! Wasn't until Saturday morning that I realised it was a long weekend here too


----------



## Edwood

gee Hang Seng is strong today, futs currently up 1100 to 28,260, thats nearly 8000pts since Aug low


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> gee Hang Seng is strong today, futs currently up 1100 to 28,260, thats nearly 8000pts since Aug low




Yep its pretty weird going long an Index that gaps up more than 2% after 6 weeks of straight up gains and still getting 1.5 % out of it  

On any other index that would be a short on the open every time. But not this crazy thing!!

How did you go today Professor?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> How did you go today Professor?




Traded on the sim again today, but it went well. Going back live with 1 contract tomorrow


----------



## Broadway

Seems like a change coming.

Gold, silver, oil and aus.usd all suddenly sharply down tonight.

USD looks to have hit bottom?

Any opinions on these changes?


----------



## wayneL

Broadway said:


> Seems like a change coming.
> 
> Gold, silver, oil and aus.usd all suddenly sharply down tonight.
> 
> USD looks to have hit bottom?
> 
> Any opinions on these changes?



Could just be a technical retracement.


----------



## bean

Broadway said:


> Seems like a change coming.
> 
> Gold, silver, oil and aus.usd all suddenly sharply down tonight.
> 
> USD looks to have hit bottom?
> 
> Any opinions on these changes?




COT structure in Gold is extreme. 
Short covering rally on US$?
Everyone is so Bullish on the markets (expect the opposite).
The US markets are already factoring in .50 cut the next time the FED meets?
POG may have been factoring it in as well.
So you have the case of US markets making new highs based on interest rate cuts.  
Expect the unexpected


----------



## >Apocalypto<

bean said:


> COT structure in Gold is extreme.
> Short covering rally on US$?
> Everyone is so Bullish on the markets (expect the opposite).
> The US markets are already factoring in .50 cut the next time the FED meets?
> POG may have been factoring it in as well.
> So you have the case of US markets making new highs based on interest rate cuts.
> Expect the unexpected




Excellent post bean...............


----------



## professor_frink

The Dow goes down, so the HSI sells off too...... for 25 minutes, and then proceeds to go on a 950 point rally!

Looks sustainable too. Hang Seng will be at  50,000 by the end of next week


----------



## Edwood

nutts eh!  I remember reading somewhere recently that index futures were coming on line in China for the public, I can't recall the detail so I might be way out on the dates but I wonder if thats driving it? 

or maybe with the Olympics coming their way they are trying to set a world record for the biggest weekly candle


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> nutts eh!  I remember reading somewhere recently that index futures were coming on line in China for the public, I can't recall the detail so I might be way out on the dates but I wonder if thats driving it?
> 
> or maybe with the Olympics coming their way they are trying to set a world record for the biggest weekly candle




I have no idea what's behind the rally, but whatever it is, it can't last too much longer at this pace.


----------



## Broadway

professor_frink said:


> The Dow goes down, so the HSI sells off too...... for 25 minutes, and then proceeds to go on a 950 point rally!
> 
> Looks sustainable too. Hang Seng will be at  50,000 by the end of next week




Surely this has to be a bubble thats going to burst. Seems like every time it looks to top, people go short, and then spend the entire next day covering.

In 6 weeks you could have tripled any original capital amount on this index by holding HSI futures. (at least).

Next correction and bottom, I have to find courage to buy and hold these..

(and ignore the bears).


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> Surely this has to be a bubble thats going to burst. Seems like every time it looks to top, people go short, and then spend the entire next day covering.
> 
> In 6 weeks you could have tripled any original capital amount on this index by holding HSI futures. (at least).
> 
> Next correction and bottom, I have to find courage to buy and hold these..
> 
> (and ignore the bears).




There is also the mini contract if you want to go for a swing trade and don't want to face the prospect of losing thousands on a gap against you.


----------



## professor_frink

Bubble is over. It's lost 450 points in in the past 15 minutes.

HSI 10,000 by the end of next week!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Bubble is over. It's lost 450 points in in the past 15 minutes.
> 
> HSI 10,000 by the end of next week!




You taking shorts on it Bob? should be a fast ride!


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> You taking shorts on it Bob? should be a fast ride!




Nope. Wouldn't have been posting in here if I was still trading- it's way too hard for me to do both on this thing!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> The Dow goes down, so the HSI sells off too...... for 25 minutes, and then proceeds to go on a 950 point rally!
> 
> Looks sustainable too. Hang Seng will be at  50,000 by the end of next week






professor_frink said:


> Bubble is over. It's lost 450 points in in the past 15 minutes.
> 
> HSI 10,000 by the end of next week!




PERFECT!! 

I had to trade a couple of Minis . The big boy was to wild!!! 

What a nuts ride. It really is extraordinary. that kind of action can be the start of a nasty reversal. Thou not putting any of my money on it overnight.


----------



## Broadway

Sometimes I wonder if chinese banks step in occasionally to halt a slide?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> Sometimes I wonder if chinese banks step in occasionally to halt a slide?





They aren't doing a very good job!! HSI looks a bit sick now. Yesterdays gap closed.

What data are you using my IB data doesn't have that Vol spike.


----------



## Broadway

trembling Hand said:


> They aren't doing a very good job!! HSI looks a bit sick now. Yesterdays gap closed.
> 
> What data are you using my IB data doesn't have that Vol spike.




Yep, IB.

I also noticed the HSI likes the standard pivot lines and even half pivot lines.


----------



## professor_frink

Dear God, didn't I pick a great day for a comeback

A range of nearly 1800 points in less than 5 hours trading! I've had to change the font size on my DOM so I can fit enough on my screen to be able to trade properly. It was getting to the stage where I had to keep adjusting it every 30 seconds just to keep the depth in view on my screen!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Dear God, didn't I pick a great day for a comeback
> 
> A range of nearly 1800 points in less than 5 hours trading! I've had to change the font size on my DOM so I can fit enough on my screen to be able to trade properly. It was getting to the stage where I had to keep adjusting it every 30 seconds just to keep the depth in view on my screen!




If only every day was like that.


----------



## professor_frink

I managed to lose money today on the HSI, despite the fact that it had a range of over 900 points

An order mishap left me slightly down in the morning session(I was testing out ZLT's auto chase feature on the SIM Friday afternoon, and forgot to change it back to my real account this morning). An ill timed phone call from Mrs Frink  meant I wasn't around to get short for the massive decline after the  lunch break

To top things off, I found a support level around 28 000 once I was back at the screen- it looked like it was in the process of making a higher low, so I did a bit of bottom picking, which didn't go well at all.

My next move was probably the best thing I did all day-I went to the bottle shop to get some beer.:drink:


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> An ill timed phone call from Mrs Frink  meant I wasn't around to get short for the massive decline after the  lunch break



Just another way women cost us money Alphonso. 

(Just joking ladies)


----------



## Broadway

professor_frink said:


> I managed to lose money today on the HSI, despite the fact that it had a range of over 900 points
> 
> An order mishap left me slightly down in the morning session(I was testing out ZLT's auto chase feature on the SIM Friday afternoon, and forgot to change it back to my real account this morning). An ill timed phone call from Mrs Frink  meant I wasn't around to get short for the massive decline after the  lunch break
> 
> To top things off, I found a support level around 28 000 once I was back at the screen- it looked like it was in the process of making a higher low, so I did a bit of bottom picking, which didn't go well at all.
> 
> My next move was probably the best thing I did all day-I went to the bottle shop to get some beer.:drink:




It's amazing how trends down look exactly like a succession of double bottoms, one after another, each one being faded at the end of the 'W'. And when you finally get a reversal, it comes from patternless slop, and very suddenly. 
I get a feeling that people who do buy right at the bottom of these 'W's sell at fib 38-50% on the way back up, and add to this the people who purposely sell at these points as a strategy, and finally the few who have to cover their longs, altogether these groups generally make strong trends go for at least 3 surges, before the bears give up.
I saw these features in early August in the SPI as well, on several different days. I got hammered then. I learnt the hard way not to bet on a trend after a trend. There is usually random consolidation between trends. So many contrarians when classic patterns come along.
We should run a thread on trades that failed. I could fill it up so quickly..


----------



## rub92me

The KOSPI is taking quite a dive this morning - off more than 4 points. Could be an interesting day today for the HSI if any of the other Asian markets (e.g. Japan) follow suit.


----------



## acouch

ER2 chart for those interested for tonight..

ac


----------



## rub92me

Nice day for the HSI today! Gapped up about 700 points and I just saw it drop more than 250 points in about 10 seconds. This one is so choppy that I don't know how anyone would manage to trade it short term. You would need a stop of more than 400 points with about 100 points slippage risk, otherwise you would get ripped out of most trades within a heartbeat. Is anyone on this forum trading this at the moment? I'm just playing around with a simulator; after about 10 rounds it's HSI: *8* - rub92me: *2*.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

rub92me said:


> Nice day for the HSI today! Gapped up about 700 points and I just saw it drop more than 250 points in about 10 seconds. This one is so choppy that I don't know how anyone would manage to trade it short term. You would need a stop of more than 400 points with about 100 points slippage risk, otherwise you would get ripped out of most trades within a heartbeat. Is anyone on this forum trading this at the moment? I'm just playing around with a simulator; after about 10 rounds it's HSI: *8* - rub92me: *2*.




Rub,

Trembling hand and Prof Frink trade it.

But i stay away from it!


----------



## professor_frink

I've dipped my toe back in the HSI water recently, but I'm not enjoying trading it anywhere near as much as I used to. Prior to the correction in July, it was still very volatile, but would only be insanely volatile at the end of a trend- it would provide plenty of time to get set before it went nuts. That doesn't happen anymore- it's nuts pretty well all day long- trying to finding a good entry point is extremely difficult for me now, and not really worth all the extra effort considering the market isn't able to take much size.

The SPI is the only market I'm trading in our region every day now, but will be getting stuck into the kospi very soon though


----------



## acouch

Dax and Estx50

picture perfect 
ac


----------



## professor_frink

50% in 2 months. When does betting start on a crash?

Does anyone know if HK has an index option market? Not game to short this via futures- will probably bankrupt myself in a couple of weeks the rate it's going, but some longer dated, way OTM put options could worth a small punt here


----------



## Edwood

don't be such a chicken Prof, just charge on in there! 

Nas is starting to show a sell signal fwiw - c/- Wernluck at livecharts


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> don't be such a chicken Prof, just charge on in there!
> 
> Nas is starting to show a sell signal fwiw - c/- Wernluck at livecharts




I just found out- there is an index option market, and I now have access to it through IB

Options over the HSI are a bit expensive considering I'd like to do it with money that I don't plan on seeing again, but they do have them over the mini contract, which is more to my liking.

What's that indicator on the naz chart?


----------



## Edwood

good luck Prof, will be interested to hear how you get on!

thats a bullish % indy that one


----------



## Edwood

was about to go to bed but Dow futs just rolled over, Bank of America missed targets, FTSE now down 120 from the HOD, Dax off nearly 100 in a few mins


----------



## rub92me

professor_frink said:


> 50% in 2 months. When does betting start on a crash?



Yes, it has gone a tad exponential hasn't it? I agree you'd have to have very deep pockets and nerves of steel to short it now. Maybe better to wait for it to head down first before jumping on that wagon. Could be hitting 40,000 before that happens


----------



## professor_frink

slightly random question........

Does anyone have some info on the FTSE for 2003? I'd like to find out what the lows were on the futures for the bottom of the bear market.


----------



## nizar

professor_frink said:


> slightly random question........
> 
> Does anyone have some info on the FTSE for 2003? I'd like to find out what the lows were on the futures for the bottom of the bear market.




3277.50 was the low for the lowest (weekly bar) for the week ending 14/03/2003.

But this is for the actual index.


----------



## professor_frink

nizar said:


> 3277.50 was the low for the lowest (weekly bar) for the week ending 14/03/2003.
> 
> But this is for the actual index.




Thanks nizar, I can use that as a starting point for the time being. Would still like the futures number too if anybody has it


----------



## wayneL

Volatility returns!


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> Volatility returns!




Yowza!

October jitters, or something else?

Profit reports aren't that flash, but as the bears expected, there are more corpses starting to float to the surface in the credit markets... credit crunch phase II?


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:


> Yowza!
> 
> October jitters, or something else?
> 
> Profit reports aren't that flash, but as the bears expected, there are more corpses starting to float to the surface in the credit markets... credit crunch phase II?


----------



## rub92me

HSI Futures dropping sharply again after the lunch break; probably pull back by the time I stop writing this though .


----------



## onemore

rub92me said:


> HSI Futures dropping sharply again after the lunch break; probably pull back by the time I stop writing this though .




It Prob pulled back ,consolidated,Blue skyed,then tanked by the time you stopped writing..

Its Crazy F..... Index.


----------



## onemore

I had one trade today on the HSI. It lasted 15 sec before i was closed out.

Thats about double the normal time frame for a trade.
Dont tell me I'm a invester now.

You can enter a position ,it goes your way then you pick your ear wax ,( a lah Kevy rudd) look back at the screen and your down 50 points. In my opinion not for the faint Hearted .

Also always have a stop in place. Because if you have a technical hitch and you have to ring the broker to close out for you you its a very nervous time.  I Know


----------



## rub92me

Nice bounce back today on the HSI. It pretty much filled the 1000 point gap from yesterday in a couple of hours. I've given up trying to trade it; I think I am just going to use the chart as a screensaver


----------



## SevenFX

rub92me said:


> Nice bounce back today on the HSI. It pretty much filled the 1000 point gap from yesterday in a couple of hours. I've given up trying to trade it; I think *I am just going to use the chart as a screensaver*




Not so bad a idea, r2m.

Out of interest what timeframe are you using and what stragerties do you adopt.

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## nikki

rub92me said:


> Nice bounce back today on the HSI. It pretty much filled the 1000 point gap from yesterday in a couple of hours. I've given up trying to trade it; I think I am just going to use the chart as a screensaver




that is hillarious


----------



## rub92me

Tried various approaches and timeframes but can't get a handle on it. My preferred approach is to look for changes in volatility; i.e. waiting for it to get in quite a narrow range and try to jump on if it breaks through the range. Most of the time I get ripped out of the trade unless I use stops that are beyond my budget.


----------



## onemore

rub92me said:


> Tried various approaches and timeframes but can't get a handle on it. My preferred approach is to look for changes in volatility; i.e. waiting for it to get in quite a narrow range and try to jump on if it breaks through the range. Most of the time I get ripped out of the trade unless I use stops that are beyond my budget.




Thats the worst time to jump in because you can bet your ....sack it will then whip back take out the small stops and keep going.

Don't get me wrong I'm no Guru I just noticed thats not a good entry method on the HSI


----------



## Edwood

see we have an island reversal on HSI 4 hrly and one of those Prussian helmet patterns.  can't remember if I put one of these up on ASF or not, heres an historic example from the Nikkei, c/- Blackstone at Livecharts.  Not saying we're going to crash like that, just flagging the pattern


----------



## rub92me

Prussian Helmets - that's a new one for me. I know about island reversals though ,so I suppose there's still hope for me. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. So far the HSI has been pretty resilient so wouldn't want to short it just yet. The problem with the HSI is that opening moves can be so large that holding overnight is pretty risky. Even if you're ahead 500 points your advantage can be wiped instantly by a gap up or down the next day.


----------



## Edwood

yeah its an unusual description alright!     a poster called Blackstone flagged them at Livecharts & had this to say:

"Some snippets from James Dines classic book, How the average Investor can use Technical analysis for stock profits.

Dines
“All tops consist of an uptrend, a congestion area, and a downside breakout”

“There are only four simple tops: Tombstone, Saucer, V-Top, and Prussian Helmet.”

The patterns are named after the width and shape of the congestion area on a point and figure chart.

Dines
“The Prussian Helmet is usually found after spectacular advances into exceedingly overpriced territory, so the stock cannot stay up there for long.”


----------



## acouch

er2 chart
ac


----------



## Edwood

Professor Frink - a follow up to that NDX bullish % chart t'other day wot was showing divergence.... this one c/- Easytimes at Livecharts


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hey professor_frink or anyone else who trades the Kospi Futures does your broker provide Market depth for the Korean exchange?

IB seems to have only Bid/Ask details?


----------



## AMR

Ouch. Got cut to pieces by the trendless period of ~30 minutes in the HSI today. That shocked the crap out of me and I decided to panic trade as a result. Not a good day overall.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Hey professor_frink or anyone else who trades the Kospi Futures does your broker provide Market depth for the Korean exchange?
> 
> IB seems to have only Bid/Ask details?




Had the full depth up not long after the open this morning. Just checked it again and the full depth was there. And I'm using IB too.


----------



## professor_frink

AMR said:


> Ouch. Got cut to pieces by the trendless period of ~30 minutes in the HSI today. That shocked the crap out of me and I decided to panic trade as a result. Not a good day overall.




Not a good market to panic in- it can punish most people pretty harshly. How long have you been trading the HSI for AMR?


----------



## AMR

Today was my fourth day, although I spent quite a while learning technical analysis before that. I thought I was getting more confident and managing my emotions better, but heck, a day like today comes along and blows you out of the water.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Had the full depth up not long after the open this morning. Just checked it again and the full depth was there. And I'm using IB too.




Thanks Professor. I will follow it up with IB. Have had such a good run on HSI thought I might add K200 to give some of it back to Mr market. Always looking at new ways to lose 



AMR said:


> Today was my fourth day, although I spent quite a while learning technical analysis before that. I thought I was getting more confident and managing my emotions better, but heck, a day like today comes along and blows you out of the water.




To be honest IMHO not sure how much Tech anal will help with this baby intraday. To me it seems by the time you have Tech/anal confirming an entry its ran 200 points and about to whip back. 

Maybe a bit of time on a SIM would be helpful. There is plenty of moves on this sucker. You just need the confidence to stick with your setups and I find that if you stuff up the start there is still plenty of time and big moves to get you out of most holes. Although the setting of a daily stoploss limit is a good idea so you don't Blow up.


----------



## Boggo

The 3 min SPI was enough to keep me on my toes today, scary stuff even looking at the HS let alone trying to trade it.


----------



## professor_frink

AMR said:


> Today was my fourth day, although I spent quite a while learning technical analysis before that. I thought I was getting more confident and managing my emotions better, but heck, a day like today comes along and blows you out of the water.




Yeah it's a pretty tough market to trade. I don't really enjoy it too much now, so tend to stick clear of it. 



trembling Hand said:


> Thanks Professor. I will follow it up with IB. Have had such a good run on HSI thought I might add K200 to give some of it back to Mr market. Always looking at new ways to lose






The kospi is a great market to lose money in- has lots of nice trends, and has the potential to take quite a bit of size(not that I really know what it's like to throw big lots around)


----------



## AMR

What sort of stops are you guys using on the HongKong33? I used 40 pt stops today and yes, they got totally kicked around.

Also, what timeframe do you analyse to determine the trend for the day and filter trades? I'm applying Dr Elder's triple screen method to try and filter out the trades in the wrong direction, but sometimes these trades that get filtered out by the 3 day trend can go for several hundred points.

I'm also a bit unclear about re-entering a trade after I have been stopped out, but continues in the correct direction. Any rules you use?


----------



## Trembling Hand

AMR said:


> What sort of stops are you guys using on the HongKong33? I used 40 pt stops today and yes, they got totally kicked around.
> 
> Also, what timeframe do you analyse to determine the trend for the day and filter trades? I'm applying Dr Elder's triple screen method to try and filter out the trades in the wrong direction, but sometimes these trades that get filtered out by the 3 day trend can go for several hundred points.
> 
> I'm also a bit unclear about re-entering a trade after I have been stopped out, but continues in the correct direction. Any rules you use?




Think it is a pretty hard index to position trade on an intraday time frame. I scalp it pretty actively. My stops are pretty fluid but will use around 10 to 20 points and will dump a position at the slightest sign of movement against me. Even if it is not at my stop yet (because it will probably blow past it in a milli-sec anyway)

And I have no problem re-entering straight away if I think it is still a good trade that I just got shaken out of because of funny buggers playing games with a 50 lot order 

My first trade on this index was a beauty which got me hooked but then the next couple of days I got towelled up. What I now know is this sucker can clean up 10 bad trades with one good one. You just have to hold the stops tight and keep taking the trades. I just about always start on the mini then move up to the HSI when I have a bit of $ in the account.

I mostly trade off the DOM with a 1 min chart.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Think it is a pretty hard index to position trade on an intraday time frame.




Couldn't agree more

It might return to being friendly for people looking to hold for more than 2 minutes, but it doesn't look like that time will be soon.

Listen to me sounding like I was looking for the main move of the day when I was trading it- my average hold time was less than 15 minutes! I won't touch it until it returns to being a normal market again.

AMR, if you are looking for something that won't give you a heart attack whilst trading, have a look at the nikkei- has been having some great ranges intraday ranges recently, and is nice and liquid


----------



## onemore

When I trade the HSI looking for 15 to 20 pts , the trades generally last for 1 sec to 10 sec . Its all over quick ,either you lost real quick or you won real quick. Bring up a tick chart and watch it for a day. I wish it had more Volume so that the slippage wasn't so great.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee the HSI has tightened up a lot of the last few days. Where has all that lovely volatility gone???


----------



## chops_a_must

Looks like some really nice trends on the YM, ES and qm. Take your pick really...


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> Looks like some really nice trends on the YM, ES and qm. Take your pick really...



qm (or cl if you're trading the big contract) has been a ball terror in recent months. Can be a bit whippy, but R/R has been much better than indicies.


----------



## Edwood

could be good news for FTSE - c/- The Times, UK



"China loosened its controls on overseas investments yesterday by opening the door to its banks to invest in British stocks and mutual funds. 
 Britain becomes only the second destination after Hong Kong in which the banks can invest their clients’ money. The reforms are expected to boost investment in London’s biggest companies as well as bringing a welcome injection of liquidity into global markets. However, analysts said yesterday that the change would not happen “overnight”."


----------



## chops_a_must

The YM put in a hard bottom after filling that gap. Got there in the end.  Seems to be really struggling on the pivot though.


----------



## chops_a_must

Broken yesterday's lows and next stop is S1 at 13214. Verging on breaking down completely perhaps. As Macdonald's say, "I'm loving it!"


----------



## >Apocalypto<

chops_a_must said:


> Broken yesterday's lows and next stop is S1 at 13214. Verging on breaking down completely perhaps. As Macdonald's say, "I'm loving it!"




Chops who is that in your avatar?


----------



## chops_a_must

Trade_It said:


> Chops who is that in your avatar?




It's Frito Pendejo from a movie called Idiocracy. Played by Dax Shepherd.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

chops_a_must said:


> It's Frito Pendejo from a movie called Idiocracy. Played by Dax Shepherd.




LOL it's a classic photo! I was always laughing and think who the hell is that! I was going to say to you yesterday, who the hell is that in your avatar but I stopped and thought what if it's chops!

I didn't think that would have gone down to nice if it was u!

how is your SPI trading going, r u trading with IB?


----------



## chops_a_must

Trade_It said:


> LOL it's a classic photo! I was always laughing and think who the hell is that! I was going to say to you yesterday, who the hell is that in your avatar but I stopped and thought what if it's chops!
> 
> I didn't think that would have gone down to nice if it was u!
> 
> how is your SPI trading going, r u trading with IB?



It's a great movie. He plays a dumb ass very well.


Yup. It's going pretty well actually. This week has been very good. Up 10% on the account in a week, but I know these aren't typical conditions, but I am pretty happy. I'm actually preferring the YM to the SPI. It seems to be a little easier to get on the directional moves, which is probably a bit better for me as a learner.


----------



## chops_a_must

Does anyone know if there are any odd trading hours in the US tonight or on Monday?

Cheers.


----------



## chops_a_must

How easy is scalping this right now?

Same trade off that R3.5 4 times in 5 minutes. Makes you wonder who is on the other side of it. Might be back for more here...


----------



## chops_a_must

Finally, some movement.


----------



## chops_a_must




----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


>



Santa dropped in?


----------



## chops_a_must

wayneL said:


> Santa dropped in?




Could say that Wayne. It's been one of those nights. 2 losers in 20 trades tonight. Was hoping on a late run like this. Not sure if I'll be game to fade any break down into close though...


----------



## chops_a_must

If that dow chart was a golf shot, I think it would be classed as a total shank.

Looks on the virge of capitulating, but apart from the first 45 minutes, it's been hard to get good entries (well for me anyway), because there just isnt enough strength off the counter rallies to swing off. Which I guess, tells you something.

This is all with good volume too. We'll see if it can get sub 13480 tonight. What a dog of a chart though, there is going to be a bit more pain for people to come I think....


----------



## chops_a_must

Pity I'm too tired to be trading this...

What's interesting to see is the DOW just following the S&P,  because the DOW is trading outside of any framework I can see to trade it...

Later on tonight the DOW might test that gap as low as 13350, but I'd say that might be tomorrow's action. Which I think correlates to the SPI gap as low as 6190, which is going to get a good shake I would say within the next few days trading. Of course that means the market has failed to take out the gap down off the highs, so a market wide break down is well and truly now confirmed.


----------



## chops_a_must

Anyone else been getting a good chunk of these break downs? 

I'm not sure how much further this has left in it (the dow at least), but the downside target is at 13135. Will see what happens when it gets there.

Whoops... off we go again!!!


----------



## chops_a_must

Well... just as I said all the best r/r trades are done for the day, we get another series of breakdowns. Shorting the DOW on confirmation of a break of daily lows has been the order. I no longer have any downside targets left for this contract. So... well... I guess that says how bad it is.

I'm guessing the dow will finish down about 270 points. Purely based on the S&P 500. It aint going to be pretty at home tomorrow I don't think...


----------



## chops_a_must

Was it just me or did the dow futures just move down about 120-130 points? Wow.


----------



## Boggo

chops_a_must said:


> Was it just me or did the dow futures just move down about 120-130 points? Wow.




Thankful I had a stop set on the FTSE

-


----------



## Fool

i played the short, made a nice sum of $$$, trade news can be very effective.


----------



## reece55

Gents
The reason is a terrible NFP report........

Data Snap: Weak Jobs Report To Fuel Rate Cut Expectations
US Nov Payrolls Revised To +115K From +94K
US Dec Overall Workweek 0.0 Hour To 33.8 Hours
US Dec Manufacturing Payrolls -31K; Svc-Producing +93K
US Dec Average Hourly Earnings +$0.07 To $17.71
US Dec Unemployment Rate 5.0%; Consensus 4.8%
US Dec Nonfarm Payrolls +18K; Consensus +50K

*** 

Cheers
Reece


----------



## chops_a_must

WOH!!

What was that!!!! 50+ dow points and 7 S&P points lost in a second.

Should have kept my shorts on...

Countrywide Bankruptcy ann?


----------



## chops_a_must

Got a big chunk of that...

Lets see what the PPT can do...


----------



## theasxgorilla

chops_a_must said:


> Got a big chunk of that...
> 
> Lets see what the PPT can do...




PPT are overpaid and underworked 

If the S&P500 continues to close down on its low and below 1400 we'll have the lowest daily close in about 10 months or so.  IMO, technically damaging.  A weekly close at this level would be even stronger sign of real technical damage.


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> Got a big chunk of that...



daytrading is fun


----------



## chops_a_must

theasxgorilla said:


> PPT are overpaid and underworked
> 
> If the S&P500 continues to close down on its low and below 1400 we'll have the lowest daily close in about 10 months or so.  IMO, technically damaging.  A weekly close at this level would be even stronger sign of real technical damage.




ROFL. Well... they had their work cut out for them there. I think we'll close on the lows of yesterday. I'm not game to trade that anymore today. Should give me food for the next few weeks/ months/ whatever. 

Hmmm... maybe that pivot about 1399 on the S&P.

I kept spruiking earlier that the rejections of the december lows were not good. Did it again tonight. Looks like I was right.



wayneL said:


> daytrading is fun




Ahh mate... earning 20+% on your account value, the majority on one trade, is a bit of an experience. Pity trades like that don't come around too often. Just like stealing candy from a baby tonight... or winning an argument on HC. Had to put my splint in though, felt like I was going to break teeth at one stage. 

Going to run a lil into close I think...

P.S. H&S pattern on the SPI will see 600 tested today I think.


----------



## chops_a_must

Nup... continuing to tank into close. Glad I didn't trade it. The intuition was on fire tonight. Lol!


----------



## theasxgorilla

chops_a_must said:


> Nup... continuing to tank into close. Glad I didn't trade it. The intuition was on fire tonight. Lol!




Tanking big time...exciting.


----------



## theasxgorilla

wayneL said:


> daytrading is fun




This is when it's REALLY fun to be a bear...when stuff is actually happening!


----------



## acouch

a 10min es chart as of now..
enjoy your day
ac


----------



## Edwood

potentially good news for uranium altho no doubt priced in already...?

LONDON (Reuters) - The (British) government gave the go-ahead to a new generation of nuclear power stations on Thursday, setting no limits on nuclear expansion and adding momentum for a worldwide renaissance of atomic energy.


----------



## chops_a_must

Managed to bet on the third place getter in the WA Pacing Cup. But that is the last time I back a Franco, even if it is just the name of a horse. 

And then the next race, off the standing start, my horse chucked a Satinova and was left flat footed and refused to move. I hope it's not an omen for tonight's trading for me. 

ROFL.


----------



## chops_a_must

Potential for sharp rebounds here with a broadening low formed on the DOW, and disproportionate strength shown on the S&P.

Been a real s*it fight so far though.

There has been some really determined strength in there so far.

Very unusual to see the S&P leading the Dow though. Almost as if it doesn't know what it wants to do.

Don't be shy little man...

Here we go...


----------



## chops_a_must

It's just been a matter of trading these breakdowns... again. DOW looked really weak into the highs again. In fact, the open was the high... looking back at it...

Have a neat H&S pattern target for the S&P futures for about 1394. Lining up with a pivot.

And a more messy H&S target for the DOW futures for about 12604.

I could do with another home run. 

Lets see what the PPT can do...


----------



## bvbfan

Monthly chart of the S&P500

At the end of Dec. the Coppock indicator which is often used in determining bull and bear markets, is perilously close to signalling a bear market.

Unless there is a January rally I think it will be triggered end of this month


----------



## chops_a_must

I should have listened to that omen.

I got really cleaned up in the last 2 hours.

Started out great. But poor fills, putting pressure on my stops and exits really rooted me. Was also getting good at shorting bottoms and buying tops as well.  Overused my best trades, and traded them outside my parameters.


Any advice criticism/ would be most welcome.

Still looking as though I'm trading with a postive expectancy by the looks of things at least.


----------



## ithatheekret

Can't reply to your PM chops , your letter box must be full .


----------



## chops_a_must

ithatheekret said:


> Can't reply to your PM chops , your letter box must be full .




Not anymore.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

chops_a_must said:


> I should have listened to that omen.
> 
> I got really cleaned up in the last 2 hours.
> 
> Started out great. But poor fills, putting pressure on my stops and exits really rooted me. Was also getting good at shorting bottoms and buying tops as well.  Overused my best trades, and traded them outside my parameters.
> 
> 
> Any advice criticism/ would be most welcome.
> 
> Still looking as though I'm trading with a postive expectancy by the looks of things at least.




these things happen Chops don't dwell on it or take it personally, follow your plan, if u feel a bit shaken up mentally reduce you position size or make a couple paper trades.

you'll be right!


----------



## chops_a_must

Trade_It said:


> these things happen Chops don't dwell on it or take it personally, follow your plan, if u feel a bit shaken up mentally reduce you position size or make a couple paper trades.
> 
> you'll be right!




Yeah, I think I'll just take trades a few days in a row on the ones that weren't a problem, and paper trade the others until I get the process back in place, which were working very effectively. The patterns just seemded really odd to me last night. Really threw me. But I have a few obvious things looking back now, where I went wrong.

But more worringly, I got hyperfocused to the point where I exceeded my maximum daily drawdown limit. Which is a problem of psychological issues of mine, but has definitely never been a problem when it comes to trading.

But I guess this is all a part of the learning process.

Thanks for the words of encouragement, it is really appreciated.


----------



## ithatheekret

Righto chops .

Hey mate at least you recognized the mistake and have learnt something , there's many that have yet to achieve that simple rule , 1st correct it , secondly don't repeat it if at all possible . T.I. is right cobber don't dwell on it , just go back analyse where it went wrong , then file it under experience and use it as a bolster in your knowledge wealth .

I've made some beauties myself mate , I bought just under $8K of shiraz from Heritage fine wines , the money never bought my purchase the company wound up 3 months later , I was offer 13 bottles out of the hundreds I had ordered and paid for , no recourse and no action by any authority during the Howard reign , let's see if Kev can't get some chains on the directors left .


----------



## chops_a_must

Thanks for the support guys.

Was back on the horse tonight. Just using my most reliable trades to get the confidence back. Worked quite well, and I'm quite a way ahead.

Have just gone short based on the Citigroup rumours. It has a long way to fall if it gets some steam up...


----------



## Edwood

chops_a_must said:


> Thanks for the support guys.
> 
> Was back on the horse tonight. Just using my most reliable trades to get the confidence back. Worked quite well, and I'm quite a way ahead.
> 
> Have just gone short based on the Citigroup rumours. It has a long way to fall if it gets some steam up...




also has a long way to rise tho Chops if Fed cuts big, and we have opex this week which will likely give US a lift.  hope it works out OK


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> also has a long way to rise tho Chops if Fed cuts big, and we have opex this week which will likely give US a lift.  hope it works out OK




Well, that's the benefit of only holding intraday isn't it? The long way to fall was in relation to the intraday chart. Still managed to get 30 ticks off it from the DOW, but thanks to strength in the S&P, it didn't roll over.

If someone could actually tell me where the strength in the S&P is coming from, that would be great, because all the charts they are showing seem to suggest we should be miles below where we are. I'm guessing ag, gold and energy stocks?


----------



## Edwood

chops_a_must said:


> Well, that's the benefit of only holding intraday isn't it? The long way to fall was in relation to the intraday chart. Still managed to get 30 ticks off it from the DOW, but thanks to strength in the S&P, it didn't roll over.
> 
> If someone could actually tell me where the strength in the S&P is coming from, that would be great, because all the charts they are showing seem to suggest we should be miles below where we are. I'm guessing ag, gold and energy stocks?




oh gotcha - wasn't sure if you were talking a swing or intra-day there Chops 

how're the banking stocks looking?  any change there?  I haven't looked myself but given the beating they've taken they could bounce pretty sharpish


----------



## ithatheekret

I think a techy is needed on that Citi chart , it looks like it getting some strength from somewhere , but I don't see any real support levels yet , except ones quite lower . 

I'm not a techy , but it looks like false strength to me .


----------



## Edwood

only looking at the chart - dyor etc but potential inverse h&s targeting 32.50


----------



## Edwood

that last one was 10 day view.

lots of +ve divergence on the daily too fwiw


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> only looking at the chart - dyor etc but potential inverse h&s targeting 32.50



32ish looks pretty likely on that. Given the way C took the news last night, perhaps a hard rally there isn't out of the question. A hell of a lot of hedge fund shorts to be unwound there you would imagine. It could go quite a bit further.

I think I mentioned above that it was the S&P leading the DOW, not the other way around. A couple of times I've noticed the DOW rolling recently, with absolutely nothing underneath it, only to have the S&P hit a pivot and stop the lot. I probably need to do a bit of sector homework to find out which sector indices are the ones keeping the ship afloat. I'm sure someone like Wayne will know. Would be a lot easier to find out if we were over there etc. Tyranny of distance blah blah.

From the bulls perspective, and something I'm acutely aware of here, is the way the DOW is weighted, the more these dog stocks are getting absolute reemed, the less the indexes will come off. And same conversely I imagine. And the stocks getting pumped, are probably the ones that will be suffering worst over the long term, so how much lower can they go?. 

Even a slight rally will give the R/R back to the long side.


----------



## ithatheekret

I was looking at this chart , I don't see any reversal in the trend as yet though , only small spikes in the action . One life insurer is starting to buck the trend , but it's on someone elses index on the KLCI .


----------



## Edwood

yeah on its own I can't see anything there to suggest a turn - others who look at volume might?  I tend to use divergence as a guide to potential set ups and wait for higher lows before entering longs, looking at the shorter timeframes for actual entries (1min, 5min)


----------



## Kauri

Vol may be indicating that a base building exercise may be starting.. too early for mine yet, on a daily frame... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Edwood

here's a timely one - Mike Paulenoff on the technicals behind C

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9228.htm


----------



## Edwood

Dow currently looking at 70-oddpt gap down for the open.  Could be a case of Citi priming the market to expect the worst - then coming in better than expected.  Regardless I get the feeling this could be one of the key news events for the market this year


----------



## chops_a_must

Exhaustive across that mid point on the DOW by the looks. Not game to be long yet, and not willing to short into that area. Massive volume on the end of it, rounding it up.

Perhaps more importantly, a double bottom on C, it reversing, and beginning to clear out intraday resistance.


----------



## chops_a_must

And I'll just fade myself as we speak. ROFL. Anyone else found that to be a good strategy?


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> And I'll just fade myself as we speak. ROFL. Anyone else found that to be a good strategy?



LOL One of the best.


----------



## chops_a_must

Wouldn't be surprised to see the fed step in if the S&P falls another few points. At this rate any test of last week's lows, will see them taken out.


----------



## chops_a_must

C stuffing the indexes again. It's got nowhere to go though.


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm looking under $22 for the big C ......... then I still wouldn't buy it , rather buy BoA and take that risk ........... not .


----------



## chops_a_must

Retesting the lows again.

Looking for a good position to go short here.


----------



## chops_a_must

You feel it's a question of when not if, where these lows will break. All the speed and volume is to the downside. All of these up spikes are sold hard.

60+ point breakdown target for the dow if it goes through this low and pivot.


----------



## Edwood

apparently Bush is announcing emergency short term measures tomorrow


----------



## Trembling Hand

What a MESS!!!!!!!!

UK down 4%


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone playing on the HSI today. Its setting new records for Craziness


----------



## chops_a_must

trembling Hand said:


> Anyone playing on the HSI today. Its setting new records for Craziness




Is it behaving like a bunch of bulls in a _China_ shop? :


----------



## Seaking

SPH8, ESH8 and ER2H8 have gone limit offer..


----------



## Timmy

Thanks for the info Seaking
The limits for overnight hours trading (non-RTH)
are 5% ... the 5% is calculated at the start of each quarter.
Just reading the CME website as I type this ... thanks for the lead!


----------



## chops_a_must

Seaking said:


> SPH8, ESH8 and ER2H8 have gone limit offer..




AS HAS THE NASDAQ!!

Anyone seen this before!!! ??? WOW!!

Gonna get some screenshots... this is incredible!


----------



## Edwood

don't know if any of you guys use CMC but they're not making prices in several US indices until 2:30pm UK time due to underlyings being limit down.  its shaping up for a wild open!


----------



## Timmy

chops_a_must said:


> Anyone seen this before!!! ??? WOW!!




I haven't been trading them long enough to see this before no...

Isnt this the Chinese curse..."May you live in interesting times" hahahaha
Doesn't get much more interesting.


----------



## Edwood

CMC back making prices on all but N225... make up your minds guys!


----------



## Edwood

amazing - FTSE closed its opening gap!  swung 300+ pts from the LOD!


----------



## chops_a_must

And US futures tank after close. Failed to take out Friday's swing low.

Any pollyanna buyers here might be either stupid, or need to be very careful.

China and tech, the last bastions, appear to be faltering.

Good day to look at some new shorts one would think.


----------



## chops_a_must

Where's your stop now huh? Sheesh... AAPL down nearly 15% in post market trade. Getting absolutely reemed.


----------



## chops_a_must

Nikkei tanking.

Thrilling finish coming up!


----------



## Gundini

I can't imagine how it will be possible for the DOW not to tank shortly, and head into a bear market senario.

Given that what I would consider a solid technical support level of around 12000, and having already closed at 11,971.19.

With the futures pointing to a modest decline, DJIA INDEX 11,859.00 -92.00, this will leave the DOW in no mans land. There is no hint of any support around this 11860 level. 

Could somebody with a better understanding please explain how it is possible, technically, for the DOW to recover back through the 12000 level, providing the futures remain 92 down. 

How can it turn around from here? Surely it can't.

It must now head to 11000, I can't see another senario...


----------



## chops_a_must

Looks like breakout plays may well be the go for the next little while.

Bought off the R1 which looked strong, and was out on the mid-point. Missed the majority of that move, but can't complain. Tis it for the night.

Pollyanna is back!


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> Looks like breakout plays may well be the go for the next little while.
> 
> Bought off the R1 which looked strong, and was out on the mid-point. Missed the majority of that move, but can't complain. Tis it for the night.
> 
> Pollyanna is back!



Yup!

Dip buying is back in style. Bad news is good news, war is peace, etc etc


----------



## Broadway

Big volume and a breakout in the YM, ES, ER2 and NQ.

Happened around 0700.


----------



## chops_a_must

Wow. Did the dow just gap a 100 points? 

Glad I was not in that. Nasty stuff. I assume it's some fed thing.


----------



## chops_a_must

And I thought I was sooooo smart fading that opening gap.

Turns into one of the biggest breakdowns I've personally seen... and I wasn't on it! 

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!


----------



## chops_a_must

Preparing to paper trade the "fade Bush" strategy.

Short at 11975...


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:


> Preparing to paper trade the "fade Bush" strategy.
> 
> Short at 11975...




 nothing to back it up but....
 market players spruiking an emergency cut...
 75 bps @100%... 100@ 15-20%
 up to 50bln upcomoing in US bank "accidents" this qtr...
 GW has come out and spoken... again... and the market...  again... has ignored him...
  ECB has told euro players to approach them directly
  !!!!!...!!!CB's checking rates!!!!...!!!!  Jpn included
  NZ heading for recession....
  McGinty heading for the cappochino strip..
Cheers
./......Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

Kauri said:


> nothing to back it up but....
> market players spruiking an emergency cut...
> 75 bps @100%... 100@ 15-20%
> up to 50bln upcomoing in US bank "accidents" this qtr...
> GW has come out and spoken... again... and the market...  again... has ignored him...
> ECB has told euro players to approach them directly
> !!!!!...!!!CB's checking rates!!!!...!!!!  Jpn included
> NZ heading for recession....
> McGinty heading for the cappochino strip..
> Cheers
> ./......Kauri




Damn trader affects. It took off again when he said his speach was ending. Lol! -50 on paper.

I'd say Jim may be driving his mate Neal home. I'm usually happy when Jim is, but not when he hangs around Neal. Wouldn't mind having a coffee with him though... I wonder if he pays the waiters under the table as well?

P.S. - the futures dropped 20 points on those ahhh, ahhh, ahhhs. Ahahahahaha!


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:


> Damn trader affects. It took off again when he said his speach was ending. Lol! -50 on paper.
> 
> I'd say Jim may be driving his mate Neal home. I'm usually happy when Jim is, but not when he hangs around Neal. Wouldn't mind having a coffee with him though... I wonder if he pays the waiters under the table as well?
> 
> P.S. - the futures dropped 20 points on those ahhh, ahhh, ahhhs. Ahahahahaha!





Bear Stearns plans a conference call at *12:30 EDT* (1730 GMT???..0230 here??)..today to address speculation in the market place and may trigger further market volatility.
  come prepared...


----------



## bingk6

Hi All,

I am using IB to stream the HSI futures data into Amibroker, and have noticed (as part of the backfilling process) that data from between 3:30pm and 5:30pm (SYdney time) is not available. Indeed, just looking at the live feed right now and I noticed that no data is coming through between the same period. Anybody else noticed this ? and for those that trade the HSI (using IB) how do you trade during this period if the data is not available.


----------



## Trembling Hand

bingk6 said:


> Hi All,
> 
> I am using IB to stream the HSI futures data into Amibroker, and have noticed (as part of the backfilling process) that data from between 3:30pm and 5:30pm (SYdney time) is not available. Indeed, just looking at the live feed right now and I noticed that no data is coming through between the same period. Anybody else noticed this ? and for those that trade the HSI (using IB) how do you trade during this period if the data is not available.




 LOL mate its closed that's why there is no data. The HSI takes a break for lunch.


----------



## bingk6

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL mate its closed that's why there is no data. The HSI takes a break for lunch.




TH, thanks. Who would have thought in this day and age that the HSI could be down for 2 hrs everyday for a lunchbreak  Doesn't really leave many actual trading hrs. OK another question, are there many HSI traders that hold over the lunch break ???


----------



## Trembling Hand

bingk6 said:


> TH, thanks. Who would have thought in this day and age that the HSI could be down for 2 hrs everyday for a lunchbreak  Doesn't really leave many actual trading hrs. OK another question, are there many HSI traders that hold over the lunch break ???




Japan is the same.
As for holding over the lunch break, I don't this sucker is crazy enough. Getting gapped a couple of hundred points right after lunch gives you bad indigestion.


----------



## chops_a_must

chops_a_must said:


> Damn trader affects. It took off again when he said his speach was ending. Lol! -50 on paper.
> 
> I'd say Jim may be driving his mate Neal home. I'm usually happy when Jim is, but not when he hangs around Neal. Wouldn't mind having a coffee with him though... I wonder if he pays the waiters under the table as well?
> 
> P.S. - the futures dropped 20 points on those ahhh, ahhh, ahhhs. Ahahahahaha!




Thanks to GWB for filling that gap for me... I think. Lol!

Kudos to him.


----------



## Broadway

I have a burning question that I'm hoping someone will answer.

I'm trying to understand what moves the index futures, and so decided to look at them tick by tick.

Why is it that the mini Hang Seng(MHI) and the normal Hang Seng futures (HSI) move in EXACT unison while trading, down to the 1 tick level? 

They both finished exactly on 23230 tonight, and if you bother to watch the 1 tick charts of the HSI and MHI side by side, you would be amazed by the simultaneous tick by tick movements throughout the entire session, not just in parts.

In fact, it happens across Europe and America as well. The DAX, Z, CAC, ESTX50 and SMI will all move tick by tick, as will the 4 US indices - but not so closely due to prive level variations (ie YM at 12000, er2 at 680).

I'm guessing the answer lies in professionals running software programs that bring any straggling or deviating indexes back into alignment. I seriously dont believe that humans can be responsible for the split second realignments that happen so frequently every minute across multiple indices. It happens too fast.

So to take this one step further, how many trades on the index futures across the world are computer generated compared to human generated? Are software programs just picking up the lagging indexes, or is there more to it? When we trade, are we trying to take money from other human traders, or are we up against computers? Is it possible for human traders to outthink these computers?

In memory of Arthur C Clarke and Isaac Asimov I have to ask the following question.

'Are humans really in control of index futures any more?'


----------



## Broadway

Let me provide some evidence - below are graphs of the MHI and HSI at roughly the same time.

Notice simultaneous tick by tick trading. Also notice the dip in the middle of both graphs, which just happended to be the low of tonight's session. Notice also the volume those lows attracted. The volume is large for both the MHI and HSI (60 and 140 contracts respectfully). This volume was the start of a 500 point trend!

But more importantly, these volume spikes appeared on my screen at exactly the same time, on both indexes. If you are a professional with such deep pockets, why even bother trading the mini at exactly the same time?

Call me paranoid if you want, but I would really like to know who or what is really in control of our futures markets. Because surely human trading would lead to far more variable trading.

Or is there something else that leads futures markets. Like the 24hour US bonds, or the 24 hour YM or ES? I think the answer would give you an unbelievable edge.


----------



## wayneL

Broadway said:


> So to take this one step further, how many trades on the index futures across the world are computer generated compared to human generated? Are software programs just picking up the lagging indexes, or is there more to it? When we trade, are we trying to take money from other human traders, or are we up against computers? Is it possible for human traders to outthink these computers?
> 
> In memory of Arthur C Clarke and Isaac Asimov I have to ask the following question.
> 
> 'Are humans really in control of index futures any more?'



I saw some stats somewhere and IIRC about 60% of index futures trades are program trades.

As far as indices matching each other. The answer is arbitrage players (often computers) will bring any discrepancy in value very quickly into line.


----------



## chops_a_must

Broadway said:


> I'm guessing the answer lies in professionals running software programs that bring any straggling or deviating indexes back into alignment. I seriously dont believe that humans can be responsible for the split second realignments that happen so frequently every minute across multiple indices. It happens too fast.
> 
> So to take this one step further, how many trades on the index futures across the world are computer generated compared to human generated? Are software programs just picking up the lagging indexes, or is there more to it? When we trade, are we trying to take money from other human traders, or are we up against computers? Is it possible for human traders to outthink these computers?



Why don't you ask TH? After all, he is a machine. 

It would be arbitrage programs and bot trading. A lot of these automated systems will hit both contracts at the same time. So it keeps them both in line.

You have related indices like the ES and YM, which have a correlation, but not exact. So trading one, without charts in the other is kind of foolish. You have to trade either with both in mind.

I don't think it is about out thinking computers etc, just a matter of being aware of when they are active. But it's the same with anything, volume is usually the key.

P.S. - Wayne stole the words almost identically out of my mouth. Prick. Lol!


----------



## Broadway

Thx for responding.

I have to admit that the closer I look at index futures, the more I find myself studying volume rather than price, to look for clues to future moves.

eg. during a 20 minute period between 5.40pm and 6pm there was a consolidation pattern (a down pennant) on the HSI. At the time I didnt know if this was going to break up or down. But in hindsight, I should have noticed 3 similar dips to the graphs above, that showed a down move, followed by an immediate rejection of price with large 'ask' volume. 

Ofcourse at 6pm it broke out going north in a hurry, leading to 500 HSI points (a 2% move on the HSI which is not to be sneezed at).

As Motorway would put it 'TEST RESPONSE TEST RESPONSE'..

(a light bulb flashes on above my head) - 'I get it now!!'


----------



## lbradman

Have a look at http://www.indexarb.com/
They provide a gauge on whether program trading is occuring based on the difference between the actual index spot price and the futures price. If this value exceeds some threshold then you'll get some percentage likelihood of institutions using their power to run buy or sell programs which can exert an influence on prices.


----------



## Trembling Hand

I would say with the HSI and The MHI its a bit of both, man & machine. IF you put the two DOM's next to each other and have a fast enough finger() you can look at the HSI and trade the MHI. When a big boy with a linked MHI program or BOT starts a run they clean up both contracts automatically. *But* if its a manual player pushing the HSI around you have all the MHI punters trying to beat each other to the crumbs. either way it creates equal prices. That's why arbitrage plays are getting thinner & thinner.


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> I would say with the HSI and The MHI its a bit of both, man & machine. IF you put the two DOM's next to each other and have a fast enough finger() you can look at the HSI and trade the MHI. When a big boy with a linked MHI program or BOT starts a run they clean up both contracts automatically. *But* if its a manual player pushing the HSI around you have all the MHI punters trying to beat each other to the crumbs. either way it creates equal prices. That's why arbitrage plays are getting thinner & thinner.




Back before the HSI went nuts last August, there were many times during the day where you could get a lead on the MHI by watching the DOM on the HSI. Was a great way to pick up a few $$ at the start of a session before moving onto trading the HSI. Not sure how much it happens these days though.


----------



## Broadway

I got another interesting fact about the HSI DOM.

On March 17, at 130pm, most of Asia made an important low.  (check K200, sgxnk, stw etc). And has risen about 15% since then. 

At exactly 1.34pm the HSI dom bid column showed 512 contracts.

Normally shows about 1-10 contracts.

Talk about ringing a bell, if only I'd listened and held..


----------



## Edwood

new FTSE target c/- Updata.  Still a lot of work to do mind, need to take out the downtrend line & get a double top breakout & clear the overhead congestion (gee I feel knackered just typing that!) but potentially sits with the Wave 4 that some of the pro-counters have been calling this correction


----------



## Edwood

Also worth keeping an eye on Shanghai for a decent bounce from these levels.


----------



## Edwood

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afSLOAm2FaFU&refer=home

China's Shanghai Composite Index Surges 9.3% on Trading Tax Cut 

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks surged, sending the Shanghai Composite Index to its biggest gain in more than six years, after the government cut the tax on equity trading to stem a slump that erased $1.7 trillion of market value.

The Shanghai measure rose 9.3 percent, the most since Oct. 23, 2001, with more than half its members climbing by the daily limit. The government stepped in to boost the world's fourth- largest equity market two days after the benchmark index sank to less than 50 percent of its October record amid concern earnings growth will slow and share sales will overwhelm demand.


----------



## Edwood

FTSE weekly, retraced 61.8% of the move out of 2003 lows


----------



## catch.profit

dear all

please collect 3 to 4 best sites to trade dji stocks for lively with chart

regds
CP


----------



## chops_a_must

LOL @ the Nikkei.

Anyone trading it. TH, Frink? Anyone?


----------



## Edwood

nicked from Bimmerbob at Livecharts


----------



## chops_a_must

Ummm wuuuttt???

Nikkei opening limit down?


----------



## Trembling Hand

chops_a_must said:


> Ummm wuuuttt???
> 
> Nikkei opening limit down?




F me!!!!!!!!!


----------



## NAsX

Trembling Hand said:


> F me!!!!!!!!!




Make that two!


----------



## chops_a_must

Topix down 12% ???


----------



## Trembling Hand

chops_a_must said:


> Topix down 12% ???




Whats up Chops don't believe your eyes?

Think she was done nearly 15% at one stage!


----------



## chops_a_must

Bloomberg aint happy!!!


----------



## weirluo

chops_a_must said:


> Bloomberg aint happy!!!




LOL, they are in hot water, we just send them tenination noitces for 20+ terminals


----------



## chops_a_must

Lol.

That's all I have to say.


----------



## wayneL

chops_a_must said:


> Lol.
> 
> That's all I have to say.



I disagree!

ROTFL I reckon.


----------



## NAsX

Has anyone else noticed the ES has dropped in volume yesterday and today significantly, eg. in today's happy hour (I refer to the last hour where everything goes crazy ), there's quite a few bars where only a few hundred contracts were traded.

Is this because ppl are staying on the sideline pending on the big 3 resolution perhaps?


----------



## Broadway

NAsX said:


> Has anyone else noticed the ES has dropped in volume yesterday and today significantly, eg. in today's happy hour (I refer to the last hour where everything goes crazy ), there's quite a few bars where only a few hundred contracts were traded.
> 
> Is this because ppl are staying on the sideline pending on the big 3 resolution perhaps?




rollover, try march 09 contract.


----------



## NAsX

Broadway said:


> rollover, try march 09 contract.




Ah, silly old me  Didn't think the volume would disappear so quickly! So most people start trading the new contract a week before hand then? 

Out of interest, in general, is this the case with most quarterly contracts? Eg. I also trade STW (MSCI Taiwan) which is a monthly contract and volume only really disappears on the day or right before expiry.

Thanks.


----------



## Broadway

NAsX said:


> Ah, silly old me  Didn't think the volume would disappear so quickly! So most people start trading the new contract a week before hand then?
> 
> Out of interest, in general, is this the case with most quarterly contracts? Eg. I also trade STW (MSCI Taiwan) which is a monthly contract and volume only really disappears on the day or right before expiry.
> 
> Thanks.




Yea that surprised me too this time. Normally the ES is about 3-4 days before contract end for the volume to move over. Each contract has it's own nuances I guess. HSI and K200 trade the last day solidly, while things like gold and copper rollover way before its end. It varies.


----------



## RobinHood

Would anyone know which broker, apart from IB, would offer me the ability to trade the HKFE products (HHI, MHI)?

I've been looking but can't find anything apart from IB.


----------



## chops_a_must

Very strange trading tonight.

A lot of disconnects.

USD up, AUD up... gold down, but oil up  and scattered commodities.


----------



## RobinHood

Option expiry took place on Hang Seng index options yesterday right?


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Keltner Channels*

I know this isn't the right thread to talk about indicators but I did a search for Keltner Channels & this is the only thread that came up, long thread though couldn't find it. Does anyone here use Keltner channels, Incredible Charts doesnt include them, is there a different name for them? 
  I've been reading "Mastering the Trade"  by John F Carter.  Good insights but 75% is going over my head.


----------



## RobinHood

felt like the HSI was being held down today relative to HHI, Nikkei, Kospi and then just 2 min before morning session close it gets bid up massively. 

Unfortunately, I didn't record today's session so I won't be able to review it!

Was this some kind of trick?


----------



## Broadway

RobinHood said:


> felt like the HSI was being held down today relative to HHI, Nikkei, Kospi and then just 2 min before morning session close it gets bid up massively.
> 
> Unfortunately, I didn't record today's session so I won't be able to review it!
> 
> Was this some kind of trick?




I saw that too.
I thought the HSI wasn't going up because the spi was upset over the GDP figure. In sympathy, so to speak.
But when the Nikkei and kospi are flying up 3-4% I figured it would be only a matter of time before HSI had to follow, and this avo she is.

Now the spi has to brush off that data and catch up.

Hopefully the ES will take a hint tonight as well. Put in a rally perhaps.

SGXNK can give occasional good hints.


----------



## Edwood

have we seen the top?  Glenn Neely at NeoWave seems to think so.  He's calling top-in for '09 and reckons S&P is now heading to 500.  Not sure I agree, but interesting to see another view....
Ed


----------



## el caballo

Edwood,

Neely's is an interesting view.  I do wonder, though, whether he has his "hard-earned" on the outcome?


----------



## Edwood

Hi el caballo, I've no doubt he is short having published a call like that.  He's been around since the 80's so he'll probably have a stop somewhere


----------



## Edwood

weak o/night in Europe, FTSE a sell all day filling gaps below, including start of May gap but managed to find some support there.  Looking like it could come off quickly if we can get some momentum going


----------



## Edwood

anyone catch the reason for the spike just now in Dow futs?


----------



## Timmy

Not watching the Dow futs, the ES, but I imagine the pattern was similar.  Haven't seen/heard any 'news' - then again I'm not looking.  Given the way its traded since the spike have to think it was a cluster of stops above yesterday's RTH highs.  Or just below?


----------



## Mr J

I had no idea this thread existed. The indices are putting me to sleep.


----------



## Edwood

yeah interesting - ES took out yesterdays highs but Dow didn't - neither FTSE.  I'm looking at UK CFD a/c fwiw.  Assume it was ES leading it then


----------



## Timmy

Edwood said:


> yeah interesting - ES took out yesterdays highs but Dow didn't - neither FTSE.  I'm looking at UK CFD a/c fwiw.  Assume it was ES leading it then




It was certainly a strange move on the ES - normally very quiet around that time each day of course, but really high volume (for that time of day) from about 1.40 pm (AEST) and a steady march up in price, then the rapid move just after about 2.08pm, again on relatively big volume.  I'm saying it was short covering, and since the spike the price has continued to move as if it was, but who knows for sure???  Maybe Obama farted and dropped the football?


----------



## Timmy

Mr J said:


> I had no idea this thread existed. The indices are putting me to sleep.




LOL - come over to the dark side Mr J (I say darkside 'cause its dark here when it all kicks off) ... have you looked at the US equity index futures, Dow NASDAQ and S&P?


----------



## Mr J

I've only focused on the SPI because of the hours. It hasn't been giving me enough opportunities so I've started trading the other Asian markets and the FTSE. I love the ES - it's perfect for my trading style - but the hours are pretty tough. The STW and HSI (MHI for me!) provide good aussie hours trading. Haven't yet tried the K200. All these indices have me wanting to automate my strategy and run it around the clock!


----------



## Edwood

sounds like a good plan Mr J.  I concentrate on FTSE opening 90 mins & last hour of US which between the two give lots of options

appears ES spike was showing us the way then, nice impulsive move out of the lows


----------



## Mr J

I'm going the whole session at the moment. Friday afternoon, but the HSI is pushing out a nice little uptrend.



> appears ES spike was showing us the way then




Except that it then made a lower low and lower high .


----------



## Edwood

yeah nice retrace to clear out stops, then orf.

FTSE not really buying the US rise o/night tho.  possible breakaway gap setting up, .618 of gap filled - not that I'm bullish mind


----------



## Edwood

FTSE shaping up for a flat opening - gap above at 4350


----------



## Edwood

well we filled the gap at 4350 in a roundabout way!
sheesh last night was frustrating, stuck in a 10pt range for several hours - on the plus there must be a decent move coming then


----------



## Mr J

10 points was enough for me, although I only stuck around to make a 5 point trade.

Rising wedge on the STW for those who are into those things.


----------



## Edwood

some FTSE targets


----------



## Edwood

first of the lower FTSE targets hit o/night

lols to this bearish blurb from McHugh


----------



## Edwood

to put a number on it, he has 0 for Nikkei and Dax and around 500 for ASX if the h&s' play out - so looks like ASX will be the place to be 

Updata has some pretty low p&f targets for ASX fwiw, will stick 'em up later


----------



## Edwood

McHugh must be smoking crack.  but to be fair his Hindenburg Omen calls in 2007 were spot on, so perhaps he deserves some leeway

daily ASX


----------



## Edwood

guide for today for FTSE


----------



## Edwood

looks like some duff data on that latest spike, but upper count should still be valid.  most of the downside targets hit so that could be it for the moment, but could test o/n lows


----------



## RobinHood

HSI fat finger?
how'd everyone do?


----------



## Broadway

RobinHood said:


> HSI fat finger?
> how'd everyone do?




I wasnt in a trade at the time, but I think exchanges owe traders an explanation with these events, rather than just forever wondering what happened.

Maybe someone just wanted alot of long contracts really fast, and couldnt be bothered picking them up slowly.
Maybe it was a random unplanned event.
Maybe it was planned and someone made a heap of money.
Who knows...


----------



## Trembling Hand

RobinHood said:


> HSI fat finger?
> how'd everyone do?



 about 1/10 of what coulda been



Broadway said:


> I wasnt in a trade at the time, but I think exchanges owe traders an explanation with these events, rather than just forever wondering what happened.






Broadway said:


> Maybe someone just wanted alot of long contracts really fast, and couldn't be bothered picking them up slowly.



 No it was the opposite.


Broadway said:


> Who knows...


----------



## Edwood

FTSE update


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> some FTSE targets




FTSE not far off 4435, yesterdays o/n high just over 4420, sb currently have us around 4380


----------



## Edwood

also worth noting 4435 will test the underside of the rising wedge....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Who here trades the HSI? I know TH does. 

Some of the moves lately have been superb, last 5 days movement has been nearly 2000 ticks(chart below), pretty amazing stuff, compared to what I'm used to anyway, seems to be some fantastic entries too, seems really tradeable, have been dabbling with it on my paper account, good hours too. 

TH, where do you find out the average daily range of a market? Is it possible to do a list of the markets with the biggest daily ADR to the smallest?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> , seems to be some fantastic entries too, seems really tradeable, have been dabbling with it on my paper account, good hours too.




Yeah thats one way of looking at it, great range.

Or that the average minute range is 22 ticks, per minute . Thats $170 AUD. You going to be able to hold this sucker through a 2 min push offside?

For the range data get the data and put it in a excel spreadsheet. As I mentioned on my blog this is trading 101 stuff.


----------



## cutz

Hi Guys,

Can anybody out there explain the difference between the following ETF's, iShares DJ Euro Stoxx50 - IB ticker code EXW1, and iShares DJ Euro Stoxx50 LDRS - IB ticker code EUN2.

I'm doing my head in finding an appropriate contract to use for adjustment purposes on the highly liquid Euro stoxx50 cash settled index options.

I've already checked out the options on the iShares themselves but liquidity seemed non existant.

Shame there isn't something like SPY over in europe ( ETF with huge option activity), or maybe i'm not looking hard enough.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

cutz said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Can anybody out there explain the difference between the following ETF's, iShares DJ Euro Stoxx50 - IB ticker code EXW1, and iShares DJ Euro Stoxx50 LDRS - IB ticker code EUN2.
> 
> I'm doing my head in finding an appropriate contract to use for adjustment purposes on the highly liquid Euro stoxx50 cash settled index options.
> 
> I've already checked out the options on the iShares themselves but liquidity seemed non existant.
> 
> Shame there isn't something like SPY over in europe ( ETF with huge option activity), or maybe i'm not looking hard enough.




Isn't the second one incorporated in Ireland?
It is like comparing the SPY vs. iShares S&P500 listed on  ASX

This maps out all the indices and its products
Maybe it will help


----------



## cutz

Hi mazza,

I dunno, i've printed out specs for both off IB, laid them side by side and everything looks identical except for the LDRS bit on EUN2, 

I do recall coming across an iShares FTSE ETF which seemed to be incorporated in Ireland.

Guess i'll have to check it out further on monday when the markets reopen.


----------



## cutz

My apologies mazza,

Yep EUN2 is domiciled in Ireland and EXW1 in Germany, exchanges the same across both but i wonder why the two.

EDIT>>I gather it has something to do with investment laws in the UK, but for my purposes i gather that i should stick to the German version unless someone suggests otherwise.


----------



## mazzatelli1000

I'm not sure what could be different, maybe fees or financial reporting requirements [IFRS vs. GAAP]. 

Looks like plenty of variations of ETF's and options available in the pdf I attached. If I am eyeballing correctly the FSTX futures are available but require CFTC approval.

EDIT: yeah you beat me to it about reporting requirements LOL


----------



## cutz

Thanks mazza,

I've printed out some facts sheets off the iShares site, now just got to enable German stocks and options.

If anyone has any info on adverse legal/taxation implications of trading on the German exchanges as an Aussie please fill me in.

EDIT>>The fact sheet states "German domiciled fund/For professional investors only" i'm now even more confused ( the bit about being a professional).

 I think it's time to down some beer.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah thats one way of looking at it, great range.
> 
> Or that the average minute range is 22 ticks, per minute . Thats $170 AUD. You going to be able to hold this sucker through a 2 min push offside?




Nah I've been trading the mini, MHI. I think its only about $1.60AUD a tick.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nah I've been trading the mini, MHI. I think its only about $1.60AUD a tick.




Had a bit of a play on the HHI today. Not bad. Less range by about 30% but its actually good. Not so volatile.

Probably a good one to start on . With the HSI it can be a bit stressful if you take 4 bad trades straight up and get 100 ticks down at the start of the day


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Had a bit of a play on the HHI today. Not bad. Less range by about 30% but its actually good. Not so volatile.
> 
> Probably a good one to start on . With the HSI it can be a bit stressful if you take 4 bad trades straight up and get 100 ticks down at the start of the day





Yeah you aint wrong, especially after watching the SPI before it, easily get caught out, HSI is nuts in comparison, although, most things would be 

HHI looks quite good actually, first time you've had a play today, or you had a go at it before?


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> FTSE not far off 4435, yesterdays o/n high just over 4420, sb currently have us around 4380




target hit, looking pretty o/bought from here, but hey why stop now


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah you aint wrong, especially after watching the SPI before it, easily get caught out, HSI is nuts in comparison, although, most things would be
> 
> HHI looks quite good actually, first time you've had a play today, or you had a go at it before?




Yeah first couple of trades. Got taken to the cleaners last week on the HSI. Not so much sh!tty trading just lost control with the size of the losers getting a bit too large. So after a crap load of brokerage I was down.

Still punting away on the HSI just wanted to get a look at HHI. Its probably a perfect mix of range & volume without getting too nutz.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah first couple of trades. Got taken to the cleaners last week on the HSI. Not so much sh!tty trading just lost control with the size of the losers getting a bit too large. So after a crap load of brokerage I was down.
> 
> Still punting away on the HSI just wanted to get a look at HHI. Its probably a perfect mix of range & volume without getting too nutz.





Yeah might have a go, looks like its had a few less red bulls than the HSI  noticed it still has some decent moves, quite a few 100 or so tick moves in about 20 odd minutes each time.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah might have a go, looks like its had a few less red bulls than the HSI  noticed it still has some decent moves, quite a few 100 or so tick moves in about 20 odd minutes each time.




Oh another thing. Not sure what you will pay for brokerage but I'm paying close to the same per RT as the MHI and almost half the HSI.

Makes a diff.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh another thing. Not sure what you will pay for brokerage but I'm paying close to the same per RT as the MHI and almost half the HSI.
> 
> Makes a diff.




You're with IB aren't you? Thats who I'm with so I'm assuming its the same, annoying how everything is in HKD, I'M UP $73289321!!!....oh **** no wait, its actually $5.50


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> You're with IB aren't you? Thats who I'm with so I'm assuming its the same,




yep would start the same but I get volume discounts after 300 and then again after 1000 trades each month. 

(you can too if you sign up for unbundled pricing)


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> yep would start the same but I get volume discounts after 300 and then again after 1000 trades each month.
> 
> (you can too if you sign up for unbundled pricing)




How much of a discount is it? Not sure that I would rack up that many trades in a month though, I'll still check it out anyway. Thanks for the heads up


----------



## Mr J

FTSE so far today, not bad .


----------



## cutz

Hi,

Quick question for you guys that follow EStoxx50.

I'm looking at the 24/7 and 31/7 expiry options >> spreads are showing but no activity, 7/8 and 14/8 expiry options >> no spreads no activity, 21/8 and 18/9 this is where the action's at.

Why is there a lack of activity in the front months, the weekly expiries in Jul and Aug is also unusual.

I'm used to trading XJO options where all the activity is on the front months and there's only 1 expiry per month so I'm slightly confused.

I've also printed off the relevant info off the Eurex website but if someone can give me a heads up on the nuances of these contracts i would appreciate it.

Thanks in advance.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nice 200 tick down move on the HHI, I like this thing


----------



## Broadway

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nice 200 tick down move on the HHI, I like this thing




It runs pretty close with the hsi and mhi. Just curious, why use the hhi?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Broadway said:


> It runs pretty close with the hsi and mhi. Just curious, why use the hhi?




Check out the previous page in this thread.


----------



## Edwood

Anyone heard from Glenn Neely lately?


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL

Anyone see the arvo action on the HSI? A 500 tick gap over lunch then worked its way back to almost flat by close.

Pretty hard to trade though with the 1 min range over 50 ticks for the first 30 min.  Insane. 767 tick range for the day.


----------



## Edwood

good luck with HSI Trembling Hand - I haven't touched it since it bit my hand ages ago when I missed closing out before lunch & it did precisely as you say - gapped waaaaay over my stop at the reopen 


nicked this from another site...

From the Wall Street Examiner yesterday -

Treasury Auctions:
I was pretty disgusted with what I witnessed in the market this morning. I had discussed beginning a couple of weeks ago that the government would want to bring yields down before the big auctions this week, and that to do that, they’d need to foment a selloff in stocks. For whatever reason, they either did not or could not do it last week or Monday as the yields rose
throughout last week. I just can’t believe that with $42 billion in 2 year notes and $27 billion in 1 year bills being auctioned today that the stock market selloff this morning, accompanied by a hefty drop in yields, right up to the INSTANT of the auctions was a coincidence. The selloff in stocks, and rally in the bond pits ended PRECISELY at the completion of the 2 year note auction at 1 PM.
This stinks to high heaven. If this is not blatant government fraud, then I don’t know what is.
The indirect bid amounts have been flip-flopping between big increases versus the prior auction of the same paper, and big reductions. It looks as though the indirect bidders are trying to go shorter term.
The dropoff in indirect bids in the 2 year note and 20 year TIPS was huge. If that continues with the 5 and 7 year notes, that could be the precursor of greater trouble ahead that we have all been expecting.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> good luck with HSI Trembling Hand - I haven't touched it since it bit my hand ages ago when I missed closing out before lunch & it did precisely as you say - gapped waaaaay over my stop at the reopen




Yep I did that when I first started trading it. Thought it closed at 6:30. hit out for a quick short scalp on 1 contract cool at 6:14. went 25 ticks my way then I went to close but there was no more market!! I knew straight away it was going to gap up next day and tried to hedge with the SPI. Waste of time SPI opened up 60 ticks,

HSI opened up some 600 ticks higher!!!


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep I did that when I first started trading it. Thought it closed at 6:30. hit out for a quick short scalp on 1 contract cool at 6:14. went 25 ticks my way then I went to close but there was no more market!! I knew straight away it was going to gap up next day and tried to hedge with the SPI. Waste of time SPI opened up 60 ticks,
> 
> HSI opened up some 600 ticks higher!!!




Luckily that has never happened to me, but I've seen it happen! 80tick daily stop, gaps 300 ticks over lunch. Try explaining that to your risk manager lol...

I think its prudent to invest in a cfd acct that trades HSI post market so you can hedge yourself if things go horribly wrong.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> I think its prudent to invest in a cfd acct that trades HSI post market so you can hedge yourself if things go horribly wrong.




IG?


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> IG?




Screw them! 40pt post mkt spread, might as well take a punt and hedge on the S&P!

thus my research into low spread mm's (pardon the oxymoron)


----------



## Mr J

Mind keeping us informed? I currently have no backup, and really don't want to find myself on the wrong end of a 100 tick drop (or 500 for HSI).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Taiwan has been a good leading indicator for the falls then rise and on today's performance, currently down 2% ........................


EDIT then again maybe its just chasing China's big drop yesterday arvo


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Taiwan has been a good leading indicator for the falls then rise and on today's performance, currently down 2% ........................
> 
> 
> EDIT then again maybe its just chasing China's big drop yesterday arvo





I still have a chart of taiwain leading the SPI from open to close by 5minutes from late last yr. It was eerily accurate. 

--------------------------------------------------
MrJ. I will post findings when they get back to me. 
Too many dodgy providers though..
I will judge them on:
-Spread (in/out of mkt hours)
-Execution speed
-Requotes/slippage
-If I can take my money out at end of the day..


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> I still have a chart of taiwain leading the SPI from open to close by 5minutes from late last yr. It was eerily accurate.




Wouldn't be suprised, with the sgx traders who have a part time punt on the kiddies index, oh sorry SPI.


----------



## Mr J

Trembling Hand said:


> Taiwan has been a good leading indicator for the falls then rise and on today's performance, currently down 2% ........................
> 
> 
> EDIT then again maybe its just chasing China's big drop yesterday arvo




I don't know what to make of market correlation yet. Sometimes seems strong, sometimes weak. Today it's obviously strong, as the STW put the brakes on the SPI earlier, and now it's moving back up the SPI is 'free'. In any case, the correlation seems enough to use it as a trading rule.



> I still have a chart of taiwain leading the SPI from open to close by 5minutes from late last yr. It was eerily accurate.




Interesting. I've gotten the feeling that there's something there. I guess it's no more than a larger, more liquid market influencing the movement of a smaller one.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone noticed that crude BOT on the HSI 2-3 levels past the best bid/ask.

very very unwelcome development 

Farggin Citadel!! :bigun2:


----------



## Trembling Hand

squeezed out said:


> head and shoulders on the SPI??...
> 
> only time will tell.




What time frame you talkin?


----------



## Mr J

Was that a deleted post or did you go back over a month?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Was that a deleted post or did you go back over a month?






nah its slipped off into the twilight zone.........

but its in keeping with the 20% success rate on H&S calls. LOL!!


----------



## Mr J

I mean I assume he deleted it after he realised he was mistaken (at least as far as I can tell, can't see a H&S anywhere).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yeah I think thats what happened. And the reason for my questioning the time frame.


----------



## Mr J

FTSE :sleeping:.


----------



## squeezed out

i pulled my order... i mean post.
and only lost a tick on my head and shoulders trade.

come on i had to go for it!


----------



## Trembling Hand

squeezed out said:


> i pulled my order... i mean post.
> and only lost a tick on my head and shoulders trade.
> 
> come on i had to go for it!




Yeah fair enough. but where was the H & S?? Got a chart?


----------



## Edwood

Mr J said:


> FTSE :sleeping:.




what's wrong with FTSE Mr J?  don't start slagging my mistress! she's nearly perfect - keeps me on my toes, spanks me every now & then, has me up all hours from time to time... but best of all she pays me!!


----------



## Mr J

I must've caught her after you were done, because she's only just woken up. Too late for me now, I'm no longer in the mood.


----------



## Edwood

lol - true I was finished early this evening
will probably dawdle about until US open now anyway, but thats much too late for me


----------



## Edwood

FTSE on a tear again, .38 retrace of the entire down move is around 4710-20 area, maybe we can make it there today


----------



## Edwood

o/n high 4710 - will we see a pause.... or just charge on through


----------



## Edwood

lol errrr assuming there is some technickle problem there


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nice one Edwood 

On another note. Never a dull moment in Honkers,


----------



## glenn_r

Trembling Hand said:


> Nice one Edwood
> 
> On another note. Never a dull moment in Honkers,




They closed down the outside rides at Honkers Disneyland due to a typhoon alert when we were there in June, it's a shame as it might of added some spunk to their mediocre rides....


----------



## el caballo

Edwood,

I recall you used a spreadbetting broker to execute your trades.  If not intrusive, can I ask is this still the case, and if yes, which one?   Do you scalp these indices or more swing trade?


----------



## Edwood

Hi el caballo - no problem
for sb I mainly use CMC but also have a/cs with IG and ETX.  generally scalping first 2 hrs FTSE and occasionally run a position for more than a day.  are you thinking of going sb or something?


----------



## el caballo

Thanks Edwood.

I was interested as I have used IG for forex and indices.  However, with index scalping, I found the spread very difficult to overome, and a severe disadvantage.  To have to scalp "at market" leaves almost no room for error.  I found scalping far more feasible with forex, particularly when the spread is less than 2 pips (as with EUR/USD), as it is typically more volatile than indices. 

Position trading is of course a different thing altogether, and very feasible in spite of the spread.  Even then, is there any reason you do not use a futures broker to trade the real market?

Any thoughts?


----------



## Edwood

no worries
yeah the spread isn't helpful, have to use limits and I'm generally looking for min 5 pts on any trade
I also have an IB a/c for futures, went back to sb when the margin requirement exploded during the meltdown.  for stuff like ASX200 out of hours spreads are generally 4 pts and margin is only 300quid per equivalent futures contract so its quite a 'cheap' way to partcipate in the after hours.  
the attraction with sb for FTSE over futures is they make a price pretty much 24 hrs.  for us over here we can often get onto overnight moves while the UK sleeps which give a big advantage over the opening futures price - sometimes 30pips plus

that said they are making the price and you have to contend with skew and requotes - which is why you're better to use limit orders


----------



## el caballo

Very informative - last questions I promise ....

Do you trade full time?
Do you use IB more than the market maker brokers, or vice versa?


----------



## Edwood

I'm part time 

Question for you:  why the dancing white horses?


----------



## el caballo

Good question - in my youth, I was an elite 400 metres sprinter, and Alberto Juantorena, a legendary 400 and 800 runner, was a hero for me growing up.  And yes, that was his nickname.  In retrospect, I probably could have chosen better ....


----------



## Edwood

ahh I see - 400m a tough one, big vo2!  you'd probably make a good swing trader then 

I was 100m freestyler so short term is perfect for me, no stamina


----------



## el caballo

Nice analogy!!  Though you did mention you do take some overnight holds - must feel like a 1500m freestyle when you do those!


----------



## Edwood

lol aye it does that.  been training for the longer ones tho, did a 4.6k ocean swim earlier in the year - gee that was painful.  I gotta mix the intra-day with longer term holds at market turns.  a mate used to run a gold derivatives desk in Aus, the advice to me was to go for the trades that run for 12 months.  "hey? 50 seconds is too long!!" I said

A good example of the o/n sb fade on FTSE today - at US close FTSE @ 4695, opened around 4650


----------



## Edwood

setting up.... room for some push higher yet


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> setting up.... room for some push higher yet




FTSE has fallen out of the rising wedge


----------



## Edwood

And potential island reversal at the high - unless the gap from 4680-90 gets filled....


----------



## Edwood

oh no looks like we're in trouble....


----------



## Bobby

Good luck with the TA , if you want to stay  in the game, look for the short term mood & be ready to flip


----------



## Edwood

Bobby said:


> Good luck with the TA , if you want to stay  in the game, look for the short term mood & be ready to flip




sorry mate you've lost me... care to enlighten?


----------



## Edwood

Hi Bobby - am keen to find out how you "look for the short term mood"?  I've only been in the game for 7 or 8 years now but would like to stay in it longer so any advice you can give would be appreciated.
thanks in advance


----------



## Timmy

Edwood said:


> oh no looks like we're in trouble....




LOL - thanks Edwood, like it.

I prefer the chicken entrails myself, but it upsets the wife.


----------



## Edwood

I haven't tried the entrails Timmy, will have to give it a go 

blimmin CMC sb have put their FTSE out of ours spread out to 8pts - pfff


----------



## Edwood

very clever bit of research.  they wouldn't be out for boozy lunches either

http://sites.google.com/site/artmarcovici/rat-traders


----------



## moXJO

Edwood said:


> very clever bit of research.  they wouldn't be out for boozy lunches either
> 
> http://sites.google.com/site/artmarcovici/rat-traders




Lol I thought it was a stitch up but this guy is serious

http://www.rattraders.com/Home


----------



## el caballo

Edwood said:


> I haven't tried the entrails Timmy, will have to give it a go
> 
> blimmin CMC sb have put their FTSE out of ours spread out to 8pts - pfff




Edwood,

You can never really rely upon this type of broker - they are always liable to move a goalpost or two at their pleasure.  

In spite of that, I hope you are nailing some good trades.


----------



## nunthewiser

lol gotta luv the bookies

citys current FTSE spread is at 6


----------



## Edwood

el caballo said:


> Edwood,
> 
> You can never really rely upon this type of broker - they are always liable to move a goalpost or two at their pleasure.




for sure - its more that they used to be 4pts just a few months ago, then went to 6, now out to 8 - unless they're only going out on my quotes that is


----------



## Edwood

moXJO said:


> Lol I thought it was a stitch up but this guy is serious
> 
> http://www.rattraders.com/Home




yeah amazing what the little buggers will do - a guy I studied with had them pressing levers to unlock a running wheel.  tehy'd hang off the top of the wheel by their front paws and stretch across to the lever with one back leg pressing away until the wheel unlocked then hop in & run til the wheel locked again.  over time they learned some pretty complicated sequences to unlock the wheel

but using music to represent price action is a clever idea.  great bit of research imho, even if it does have that 'novelty' factor


----------



## nunthewiser

gotta love them bookies


----------



## Edwood

nice work nunthewiser give them a slap from me while you're at it 


"Ding ding!"  Round two about to kick off??

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...October-meltdown-as-Chinese-demand-slows.html


----------



## nunthewiser

short poms ....right about.......here.......... tight stops ........ 

gotta love a  gamble hey


----------



## nunthewiser

nunthewiser said:


> short poms ....right about.......here.......... tight stops ........
> 
> gotta love a  gamble hey





lol would like to deny all knowledge of this post


----------



## Edwood

lol - what is it they say?  I always win at gambling - its only when they cheat that I lose 

UK employment nums came in slightly better than expected.  we've stalled at .618 retrace of the decline from yesterdays highs.  Feds up later so assuming we'll head back to the 4670 area from here


----------



## Edwood

lol Neely has changed his mind again!  (The joys of being an EW practitioner eh)

Needless to say he is all bearish again on the S&P suggesting this pop higher is a bull trap out of an expanding triangle and bull suckers will be buying into the next 200-300 pts of decline until they realise they should've been selling

zzzzzzzz


----------



## el caballo

Edwood,

Did Neely state where his stop loss was on  that short call?


----------



## Edwood

hi el caballo - no he publishes it purely as TA with no detail re: entry or exit points - i.e., to be used at your own peril


----------



## Edwood

strong day in the UK.  FTSE making new recovery highs, Aus made its highs last week & currently around 200pts adrift - strange to not be more in synch


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> strong day in the UK.  FTSE making new recovery highs, Aus made its highs last week & currently around 200pts adrift - strange to not be more in synch




hey edwont, do you trade the FTSE? I was thinking of having a look at it, but not sure how good or bad it moves for short term trading?


----------



## nunthewiser

ThingyMajiggy said:


> hey edwont, do you trade the FTSE? I was thinking of having a look at it, but not sure how good or bad it moves for short term trading?





has been trading it

the hours have been suiting my sleep patterns of late 

yes theres cash to be made (or lost) on its intraday moves of late


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

nunthewiser said:


> has been trading it
> 
> the hours have been suiting my sleep patterns of late
> 
> yes theres cash to be made (or lost) on its intraday moves of late




cheers nun


----------



## skyQuake

^FTSE far "spikier" than the SPI, with longer tails (but more depth!)
Good trading hours as nun said.
Sadly it has lost a lot of the real paper orders. Mostly traders and bots


----------



## Edwood

ThingyMajiggy said:


> hey edwont, do you trade the FTSE? I was thinking of having a look at it, but not sure how good or bad it moves for short term trading?




hi Sam - depends what you mean by short term.  First 90 mins are generally pretty good, if there's not much there then be prepared to have to wait for US to open (which doesn't suit me) so generally I'm only looking for the first 90 mins.  Sometimes I'm done in the first 10 mins.  opening gaps are worth a look
cheers


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> hi Sam - depends what you mean by short term.  First 90 mins are generally pretty good, if there's not much there then be prepared to have to wait for US to open (which doesn't suit me) so generally I'm only looking for the first 90 mins.  Sometimes I'm done in the first 10 mins.  opening gaps are worth a look
> cheers




Yeah thats what I'm after, first 90 minutes of anything are the only parts worth trading. 

Thanks for the replies guys


----------



## AzzaB80

skyQuake said:


> ^FTSE far "spikier" than the SPI, with longer tails (but more depth!)
> Good trading hours as nun said.
> Sadly it has lost a lot of the real paper orders. Mostly traders and bots




Would this explain why when using Market Delta it gets more hits on the bid then the offer when price is going up? Really weird


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> setting up.... room for some push higher yet




just for interest - update on the 'bearish' wedge from early Aug - nice thrust into the apex


----------



## Edwood

decent gap open today, on top of a 2% rise Friday, must be getting close to exhausting now....


----------



## Edwood

someone was asking about sb v's futures the other day for FTSE.  IG index touched 4950 area o/n


----------



## Edwood

and there's the opening gap filled - so up to 45pts advantage available via sb for the same play


----------



## Edwood

http://www.neowave.com/qow.asp

lol looks as tho Neely's now on crack as well!!!  he seems to think he should be compared to Elliott the way Einstein was compared to Newton.... 

this bit is good tho.... "There is always the possibility an analyst will make a mistake or miss an important concept when doing wave analysis. That does not change the basic fact that wave theory does not have all the answers at all times. It is for that foundational reason I missed more than half of the March 2009-to-present rally in the stock market. It simply was NOT predictable and could not be counted on. That statement is correct whether other EW analysts took the chance and stayed bullish on the market from March's low. Logically speaking, and from a certainty and safety standpoint, only 1/3 to 1/2 of the March-to-present rally could be depended on."

bollocks he probably missed the rally cos he was stoned off his chops


----------



## Edwood

c/- Floos100 at livecharts, Shanghai projecting for another 30%-ish downside


----------



## Trembling Hand

I Hate Bracket orders 

HSI!!!!!!!


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


> I Hate Bracket orders
> 
> HSI!!!!!!!




Was that because of Trichet talking?
500 points in 7 minutes.
Is it because of a never ending row of stops getting hit, or does someone big want alot of longs?

Last time this happened was the start of the mid-july rally that went for 2 weeks. You can't tell me a pro wants shorts?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> Was that because of Trichet talking?
> 500 points in 7 minutes.
> Is it because of a never ending row of stops getting hit, or does someone big want alot of longs?
> 
> Last time this happened was the start of the mid-july rally that went for 2 weeks. You can't tell me a pro wants shorts?




Started on the EUR then someone pushed and then it was just a stop explosion. Was always on the cards. Last 3 days have been very tight. Today more of the same. Not sure whats that got to do with getting shorts. this is some serious buying/covering.


Nice, though should of been so so so much better.


----------



## Broadway

Last time that happened was 14th July.
ES went from 900-1000 in 2 weeks.
HSI climbed at least 2000.

Perhaps short covering in the ES tonight.


----------



## Edwood

Retail punters surge back into the game - back to dot com levels

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a9acfa2-a494-11de-92d4-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss


----------



## Edwood

not really index so off topic but kiwi making a strong run against sterling.  generally on a decent correction kiwi gets hit hard (ala Oct-08, Mar-09).  Worth watching....


----------



## Edwood

a bit after the fact but long on Sterling-Kiwi at 2.2539, stop at evens will see how we go.

Problems brewing in the UK....?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...90/Bank-calls-crisis-meeting-for-experts.html


----------



## Edwood

stopped out +5 - will wait for this drop to settle before looking for another sterling entry


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

you trading the ftse at the moment ed? i'm having a go on a demo account, seems to be nice and tradeable tonight, not that I have had much experience with it.


----------



## Edwood

hey Sam - no I wasn't on FTSE last night.  good idea to go with the demo for a bit


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> hey Sam - no I wasn't on FTSE last night.  good idea to go with the demo for a bit




yeah, not gonna be having a go live straight up thats for sure  trying a new method on it too. worked out well last night, 11 trades, 8 winners, 3 losers, lets see how tonight goes


----------



## Edwood

ThingyMajiggy said:


> yeah, not gonna be having a go live straight up thats for sure  trying a new method on it too. worked out well last night, 11 trades, 8 winners, 3 losers, lets see how tonight goes




nice work Sam - just make sure total winning pts > total losing pts.  school hols & change to summer time in NZ have put me out for this week, nice to have a few days out...


----------



## Bobby

Edwood I'm going to give an idea  

The art of contradictory trading , going long & short at the same level ,you open a short then a long .
The name of the game is to be on the trend when it happens & cut the wrong without the chop getting both .
You use trailing stops to set the trend , you will need to practice this on your sim , it time you will only set one trailing stop at the right distance  

Have Fun.


----------



## Edwood

Bobby said:


> Edwood I'm going to give an idea
> 
> The art of contradictory trading , going long & short at the same level ,you open a short then a long .
> The name of the game is to be on the trend when it happens & cut the wrong without the chop getting both .
> You use trailing stops to set the trend , you will need to practice this on your sim , it time you will only set one trailing stop at the right distance
> 
> Have Fun.




hi Bobby - cheers for that - what time frame are you talking?  I did try something similar a few years back but realised pretty quickly it was pointless goign both ways at the same time - an easy way to lose money quickly and generally a sign of panic / not knowing what is going on and feeling one has to be in the market    better to wait for clear signals with minimal risk

Ed


----------



## Bobby

Edwood said:


> hi Bobby - cheers for that - what time frame are you talking?  I did try something similar a few years back but realised pretty quickly it was pointless goign both ways at the same time - an easy way to lose money quickly and generally a sign of panic / not knowing what is going on and feeling one has to be in the market    better to wait for clear signals with minimal risk
> 
> Ed




Hello Ed,
 Yes there is more to it then just going both ways and waiting to see what happens .
Time frame is intra -day , I'll think about sending ( you ) something thats not so nebulous


----------



## Edwood

yeah no worries Bobby, chuck it over, always useful to look at others ideas

how's sterling-kiwi?  relentless.  would be a brave man stood in the way of that sucker.  last one out of blightee please turn off the lights


----------



## Edwood

sterling just broke up out of a descending wedge against kiwi fwiw


----------



## Bobby

Edwood said:


> yeah no worries Bobby, chuck it over, always useful to look at others ideas




Greetings Ed ,
 If I  send you some info regarding  roll off when setting both plays , that will cover the  buy/offer chop bullsh*t  &  same when the trend is on . 
Will you confirm you won't share ?


----------



## Edwood

course - no problem 

Off topic again for this thread but with the 25% gain in NZD against Sterling (& probably AUD, haven't checked) there has to be an argument for buying London property around these levels (in decent areas) - we can get it 25% cheaper than the locals, and the Olympics are coming...  & no doubt a change in govt


----------



## Edwood

looking like its nearly time to dust off them shorts me thinks....


----------



## Edwood

starting to roll over - don't fight it, you know you want it...


----------



## Edwood

NZD getting dumped against sterling following the 'no-change' rate call this morning


----------



## Timmy

Edwood said:


> NZD getting dumped against sterling following the 'no-change' rate call this morning




Thanks for that Ed - if you have the inclination, what is going on over there in NZ compared to Australia that is seeing rates raised here but steady there (or is it just John Key is short the NZD and talking his book ) ..... is it pretty much the resource/China story here in Aus. that is the difference you think?


----------



## Edwood

lol Timmy - funny you say that, when Donkey started running the country I thought perhaps the best use of his skills would be to take over the "Cullen Fund" (the kiwi super pot) to trade our way out of recession   Instead he has taken on the task of building a $50m cycle lane through the middle of the country 

NZ has a large debt overhang rated among the highest in the western world as a % of gdp.  Our tax system favours property investors as we can create loss attributable qualifying companies, run property portfolios at a loss & offset those losses against other sources of income, effectively eliminating individual tax bills (& blowing away any revenue for the govt which would come out of other forms of investment).  Unfortunately its non-productive investment - govt is reviewing how to change this.  We can't just dig valuable holes in the ground like you guys can so the risks for us getting out of this mess are higher

we'll probably have to resort to selling you guys water at some point


----------



## Edwood

bit of detail on the govt side if you're interested

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10606188


----------



## Timmy

Thanks Ed.
Yes, the holes in the ground here are very handy indeed.

I want to go to NZ so I can vote for your PM, the ex-FX dealer.  That is so cool.  Much better than a smarmy ex-bureaucrat ....


----------



## Edwood

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...baffle-vets-mystery-condition-German-zoo.html

lol - could this be Glenn Nealy?  
whoever, this bears lost more than his honey trying to short the run up since July


----------



## Edwood

lol max pain INDU = 10291.  And where are we now?


----------



## Edwood

weekly ftse - h&s target nearly met, I make it around 5590.  also a broadening pattern coming into play in the 15 min


----------



## Edwood

GBP-NZD getting down towards the lows again, risk is UK has a rating warning, but either way shaping up for a retest of the 2.12 zone


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> weekly ftse - h&s target nearly met, I make it around 5590.  also a broadening pattern coming into play in the 15 min





h&s target hit, turned at 5600 fwiw


----------



## Edwood

ftse certainly put in a good reaction - not saying its the top, but it is til it isn't I guess


----------



## Edwood

just wanted to share a recent trade on gbp-nzd (posted on livecharts) cos its a lovely setup & nice example of trading with TA.

Solid downtrend, along the median line into a descending wedge with momentum fading per the macd






zooming in support is tested followed by an inside candle, with the test candle evolving into a master candle.  long on the break of tje inside candle & back above the median line








Then followed a rising picthfork to stall at the upper parallel of the descending pitchfork.  sweet!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Here is some recorded video I took of the HSI tonight, man this thing can move fast! Dunno how you do it TH 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zEQhtWy3Q0


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Here is some recorded video I took of the HSI tonight, man this thing can move fast!




Have a look at it on the cash open, 1:00 Aussie time today. Lots of news from China. Should be some fireworks.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Have a look at it on the cash open, 1:00 Aussie time today. Lots of news from China. Should be some fireworks.




yeah with the lending? fireworks really is fireworks from what I've seen in the past


----------



## Trembling Hand

HHI is smokin. Something  to watch at the mo. Twice as much vol as usual. Watch 1 pm. lots of data from China


----------



## Trembling Hand

You like that? HSI 111 ticks in a minute. Luv it!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL. Now 177 tick back the other way. in 5 mins. Any takers for a 200 tick reversal in the next 30 min?

Now thats a market. How could you trade anything else?


----------



## Wysiwyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Here is some recorded video I took of the HSI tonight, man this thing can move fast!



Timing entry would require some skill and knowledge of the index I reckon. Studying numerous runs like this video would be helpful to get a feel for the index's trading patterns.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Any takers for a 200 tick reversal in the next 30 min?




Please, got this sucker on a string today!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Hahah TH, gotta love it! Frikn nuts 

Heres my go so far, I just had to have a go at this sucker,  thought it would be opposite way around, trembling hand is right lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Hahah TH, gotta love it! Frikn nuts
> 
> Heres my go so far, I just had to have a go at this sucker,  thought it would be opposite way around, trembling hand is right lol




Good one. Thats not bad at all. Mine looks very similar - just a few more contracts thrown around.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trembling Hand said:


> Good one. Thats not bad at all. Mine looks very similar - just a few more contracts thrown around.



Wondering how many full or mini contracts would you average per day? 

(So I can tell my friends )


----------



## Trembling Hand

Wysiwyg said:


> Wondering how many full or mini contracts would you average per day?




I can't tell you that  Lets just say enough to get 1/2 price brokerage


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

You bastard  thats some nice brokerage, did they offer that to you? Where do you get your news from?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

This is what happens when you come back to find you've somehow been in a trade the whole time.   managed to get it + again in the current session at least  This HSI certainly has some action  I think this is the first time I've actually been puffed whilst trading lol.

Lucky its sim. 

Note to self, make SURE no orders are hiding in the corner.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> This is what happens when you come back to find you've somehow been in a trade the whole time.   managed to get it + again in the current session at least  This HSI certainly has some action  I think this is the first time I've actually been puffed whilst trading lol.




LOL! thats not a bad effort. Another one to watch out for is the closing times. I've been stun bad there before. (not on sim either).


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL! thats not a bad effort. Another one to watch out for is the closing times. I've been stun bad there before. (not on sim either).




Haha yeah same here, been caught out with that too  I've changed my clock on my computer so its HK time now  makes it a bit easier


----------



## Edwood

nice work TH 

how do you mean 'SIM' Sam?  Are you on the simulator?  I tried HSI a while ago but was too crazy for me

Looking like the imminent correction wasn't so far away after all her.  FTSE now off 5% from the h&s target, US on a plunge, gold back below 1100, NZD getting dumped against GBP.  Good stuff


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> nice work TH
> 
> how do you mean 'SIM' Sam?  Are you on the simulator?  I tried HSI a while ago but was too crazy for me
> 
> Looking like the imminent correction wasn't so far away after all her.  FTSE now off 5% from the h&s target, US on a plunge, gold back below 1100, NZD getting dumped against GBP.  Good stuff




Yes on simulator, using live market feed, just a paper account  One would be insane to go live on this thing straight up.


----------



## skyQuake

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yes on simulator, using live market feed, just a paper account  One would be insane to go live on this thing straight up.




Hi Sam, when on the sims, just beware that the real HSI is a fair bit harder, due to around a full 1/2~1 second of lag on the real thing (HSI is an old exchange and its far far away)
Also how fast does the NT sim refresh? Once every 0.5sec ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Hi Sam, when on the sims, just beware that the real HSI is a fair bit harder, due to around a full 1/2~1 second of lag on the real thing (HSI is an old exchange and its far far away)
> Also how fast does the NT sim refresh? Once every 0.5sec ?




NT just uses the data you give it. Its fully dynamic. Though IB data isn't, think its every 0.2 sec.

And yep its a bit harder getting an execution in the HSI when your 1-2 sec behind everyone else, thats 30 ticks sometimes.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

skyQuake said:


> Hi Sam, when on the sims, just beware that the real HSI is a fair bit harder, due to around a full 1/2~1 second of lag on the real thing (HSI is an old exchange and its far far away)
> Also how fast does the NT sim refresh? Once every 0.5sec ?




Yeah I realised that, thought I was doing OK yesterday but I guess not in reality 

Ah well, heres todays efforts, some was through IB paper account with the lag, most wasn't though. Using the Sim101 account with IB data. Only a few trades but kinda rushed as I'm supposed to be going out tonight so shouldn't really be trading at all right now, want to keep going but I better not  Couldn't help myself though, man its had some crazy surges tonight.


----------



## Edwood

there are safer & less stressful ways to make a turn imo Sam - not sure how TH does it, he must be able to focus very well 


Update on GBP-NZD - looks to be running out of steam


----------



## Wysiwyg

I like Edwood's examples of Andrew's Pitchfork from a median line. Has me interested in this type of T.A. which I haven't really looked into that much. Thanks and well done.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trembling Hand said:


> I can't tell you that  Lets just say enough to get 1/2 price brokerage




Okay, thanks.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Edwood said:


> there are safer & less stressful ways to make a turn imo Sam - not sure how TH does it, he must be able to focus very well




Not stressed at all mate, I love trading it.  Seems to suit my method quite well, just need to sharpen up a few things, sim sim sim sim sim sim


----------



## Edwood

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Not stressed at all mate, I love trading it.  Seems to suit my method quite well, just need to sharpen up a few things, sim sim sim sim sim sim




good on you mate - all the best with it 

Global markets taking a kicking, not a great look into the weekend....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

LOL...the result of rather aggressive pyramiding. 708 points in 20 minutes


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

TH, Did you call HK names? It seems upset!  Anyone want to see a near perfect downtrend, pull up the arvo session of HSI


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> TH, Did you call HK names? It seems upset!  Anyone want to see a near perfect downtrend, pull up the arvo session of HSI




she's angry isn't she


----------



## Wysiwyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> LOL...the result of rather aggressive pyramiding. 708 points in 20 minutes



 Easy AUD5K.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Wysiwyg said:


> Easy AUD5K.




Yeah doesn't mean much though, not possible in real life, unless you're swinging one HELL of a big line, I'm just cuttin sick on a sim account, I really should start playing properly, so its realistic, but its so much fun when you get these sort of results for January this year...

An "easy" $365K AUD lol.


----------



## Edwood

lol Sam - that's outrageous!  hope you can replicate on the live account

latest view on GBP-NZD - making assumptions on getting a decent bounce in equity markets mind....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Todays efforts from the morning session on the HSI. Gapped down, shot up, and has come off in the last 40 minutes or so, pretty hard too.


----------



## Edwood

not sure if there's a GBP-NZD thread here, so here it goes by default - bit wishful I guess


----------



## Edwood

nice reaction off the .76, bottom could well be in on GBP-NZD (15 min view)


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Zee Germans don't seem too upset, nice change after everyone else crackin' a wobbly today


----------



## skyQuake

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Zee Germans don't seem too upset, nice change after everyone else crackin' a wobbly today




Think theres some fresh bailout news/rumour, FTSE rallied fairly hard too.


----------



## Edwood

potentially an entry setting up on gbp-kiwi.  a tad nervous longing sterling tho....


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> Think theres some fresh bailout news/rumour, FTSE rallied fairly hard too.




Suck fing sh*t to those SPI reject fund traders!

When the markets looked bullish and ready to re-test the highs, they panicked at nothing!  

May get a panic buy 2morrow morning if they don't auction it up to high.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

MRC & Co said:


> Suck fing sh*t to those SPI reject fund traders!
> 
> When the markets looked bullish and ready to re-test the highs, they panicked at nothing!
> 
> May get a panic buy 2morrow morning if they don't auction it up to high.




Why would they do this? I was thinking most things looked reasonably bullish before today too, would they be in and out during the same day or will we see massive short covering tomorrow or tonight etc? That's if you know how they work? I'm just curious


----------



## MRC & Co

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Why would they do this? I was thinking most things looked reasonably bullish before today too, would they be in and out during the same day or will we see massive short covering tomorrow or tonight etc? That's if you know how they work? I'm just curious




Definately not intraday, they were larger positions they were closing.

Unsure if long covering or short positions, don't look at OI as it's all the same in my book, but they won't be able to reverse either tonight, no liquidity, unless they imperect hedge it with another index.  

This is why tomorrow you may get them switching on their buy bot which will march it up at open tomorrow if they want to reverse that position realising they are wrong.  Just an idea.  Probably more likely if the US remains flat, than if it rallies hard.  TH probably has stats on that one!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

MRC & Co said:


> Definately not intraday, they were larger positions they were closing.




How do you determine this? 



MRC & Co said:


> Unsure if long covering or short positions, don't look at OI as it's all the same in my book, but they won't be able to reverse either tonight, no liquidity, unless they imperect hedge it with another index.
> 
> This is why tomorrow you may get them switching on their buy bot which will march it up at open tomorrow if they want to reverse that position realising they are wrong.  Just an idea.  Probably more likely if the US remains flat, than if it rallies hard.  TH probably has stats on that one!




Could they not be "wrong"? US is down again, DAX has come back to its open nearly, could they know....stuff?  I'm just thinking out loud. 

Cheers for the reply


----------



## MRC & Co

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How do you determine this?
> 
> 
> 
> Could they not be "wrong"? US is down again, DAX has come back to its open nearly, could they know....stuff?  I'm just thinking out loud.
> 
> Cheers for the reply




You determine it by the size of the orders and the obvious panic of them.  No intraday trader trades like that, it would be suicide, they were sweeping out bids like they were dust on the floor, desperate for the fills!  Only 'paper' (institutional money) moves like that!

Personally, it looks to me like they got spooked by the Euro (which led the entire down move, including the early morning grind lower), which they happened to forget is not correlated to the equity indices at the moment!  

This price action at the moment means nothing though, in the scheme of a daily chart.  Today's panic assumed they wouldn't get a chance tomorrow for those fills or in the coming wk, so it better go down fast or those fat cats are gonna loose some weight!


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> potentially an entry setting up on gbp-kiwi.  a tad nervous longing sterling tho....




there's the retest, long GBP now...


----------



## Edwood

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15936.htm


"The Securities and Exchange Commission voted on Wednesday to limit short-selling     of stocks that are falling rapidly in price, The New York Times's Floyd Norris     reports."


must be worried that another large fall is coming....


----------



## Edwood

long term FTSE with intersecting pitchforks drawn a few days back.  may not be significant but interesting nonetheless.  
(PS Arguably could be drawn with log scale - in which case price is already through the intersect)








And where we are currently


----------



## Edwood

FTSE still struggling to get over those levels.

Russell 2000 bounced off 0.618 retrace of the bear market fall last night, looking pretty over extended at the moment


----------



## MRC & Co

I'm with you.

I've got quite a few reasons longer-term, which now coincide with short-term opinions about why she's gonna blow.

The only problem is the US equity market looks the strongest and is held as the ultimate determinate of 'risk sentiment'.  

So there is always the possibility as we are seeing now, of other 'risk assets' coming off, without as bigger moves in the traditional plays....


----------



## Edwood

(oops - that should read .768, not .618 - apologies for any confusion )

yeah it is looking strong, 750 appears next target - but could give it up at any point now


----------



## Edwood

RUT got to 746 before rolling - would like to think any attempts at higher from here will only be to print a lower high.  

Wonder who will be next on the Euro-zone list - Portugal, Ireland - UK even??


----------



## Edwood

update on that resistance at FTSE pitchfork cross over flagged earlier in April


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> would like to think any attempts at higher from here will only be to print a lower high.




That's what I got.  

Huge spike in CDS spreads, even the bund has moved higher than the UST.

Last time we got a spike like this in spreads, it frontran the subsequent piling into 'safe havens'.  

Financial ETFs are down, financials have been strongly correlated with the 'risk trade'.

Many 'risk trades' are now over-crowded, huge net speculative long positions and vice-versa in 'safe haven trades'.  

Monetary restriction and targeted fiscal expansion in China is now taking place, great for longer-term real growth, bad for short-term financial markets IMO.

Gold even rallied last night, as opposed to Friday when it also came off.

Even got financial regulation moving closer and closer to the forefront which will effectively lower financials prices and the expansion of credit.  Many CBs looking at moping up liquidity to that end also.

Above market earnings reports are prooving less and less of a bid for equities (factoring in of top-line growth may already be over).  

Quite a few other factors, but CBF going through them all.  Points to one direction for mine......


----------



## Edwood

all soudns good to me MrMRC!

Rolled these two charts out aroud the last highs - say it all.
Add to your list mutual fund cash levels < 3.5% (i.e. fully invested)
And did you see the Vix spike yesterday?? lol


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> Add to your list mutual fund cash levels < 3.5% (i.e. fully invested)




Yeh, definately doesn't add to the bullish scenario, but any data on flows?  I.e if more 'Mums and Dads' are placing $ with mutual funds and increasing reserves/liquidity?

This looks like the LH to me.


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> any data on flows?  I.e if more 'Mums and Dads' are placing $ with mutual funds and increasing reserves/liquidity?
> 
> This looks like the LH to me.




no but I'll keep an eye out for data.

Potentially LH but am holding off on getting positioned yet, could be one more down, then final up move - then stick a fork in it


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> no but I'll keep an eye out for data.
> 
> Potentially LH but am holding off on getting positioned yet, could be one more down, then final up move - then stick a fork in it




There is talk of more charges this time from the Fed against GS which has just surfaced and the financial regulations bill is debated tonight in the Senate.  All could be the inflection point.

My only concern is the fact the IMF/EUR make a decision on Sunday, which I see as 90% chance of an agreed deal.  Could spark up the risk rally again at least S-T.


----------



## Edwood

nice drop, hope you got some of that MRC. now do we get a 'final' rise

(UK bank holiday this coming Monday, rest of Europe is open tho)


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> nice drop, hope you got some of that MRC. now do we get a 'final' rise
> 
> (UK bank holiday this coming Monday, rest of Europe is open tho)




Yeh mate, got that with leverage and OPM (Other Peoples Money)!

Like I rode a lot of that EUR/USD, pyramiding on any spikes higher, I may just do the same on the equity market (though not ride as long, still think it's good quite a bit more downside yet).......

Hope you got some too mate!


----------



## Edwood

nice work 

Maybe one more correction & minor up move left?  either way in on Russell 2000 from 730 average


----------



## Edwood

Initial polls pointing to a conservative majority ni the UK - gotta be good news for Sterling.  Plenty of points on offer assuming GBP-NZD and GBP-AUD both rally.  except you guys could well raise rates - again


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> Initial polls pointing to a conservative majority ni the UK - gotta be good news for Sterling.  Plenty of points on offer assuming GBP-NZD and GBP-AUD both rally.  except you guys could well raise rates - again




Polls still look like a hung parliament.....

Think there will be rate rises in OZ today.  

On another note, where did you get that data on mutual fund investment levels?


----------



## sinner

MRC & Co said:


> On another note, where did you get that data on mutual fund investment levels?




Mish reckons MF investment levels is a terrible measurement of what its proponents argue it measures and I agree.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/mutual-fund-cash-depletion-highest.html

Read here for a better understanding of what it does/does not measure.

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc060710.htm

To get a decent gauge of market participation in the futures, a good understanding of Open Interest and Volume are required imho. Every night before London opens I amend a spreadsheet of CME data points like options puts:calls (and avgs thereof), futures OI plotted against the close price (and avgs thereof), to track the various instruments I trade. Even though the data is a day "late" you will see the value in it very quickly. When it comes to stock indices these indicators can be useful but usually superceded by market breadth indicators like the Advance/Decline line (for an example checkout ticker NYAD on the NYSE) which provide a better picture.



But the main point is, don't use MM funds as a method to quantify market participation. *Use market participation data as a method to quantify market participation*. Between stockcharts.com, indexindicators.com and cmegroup.com you should have more than enough of this info across most markets.

EDIT: Obviously MRC and similar don't need to be told many of these things, just thought it was a good spot for those that do.


----------



## Edwood

Cheers for the links sinner, will read them after dinner.

Here's the chart from the article MRC.  (PM me an email address if you want the full article)

   The cash-to-assets ratio sank to 4% in March 2000, almost equaling a 27-year-old record. Investors were mightily punished.  In June and July 2007, the cash-to-assets ratio contracted to 3.5%.  Investors were punished. And now, as of the end of February 2010, the cash-to assets ratio has once again dipped to 3.5%. Will the dÃ©nouement be the same? Consider that the total amount of cash in fund coffers was $229 billion and $224 billion in June and July 2007. Cash is now significantly less, $171 billion. The mutual fund cash-to-assets ratio is trading at an all-time record low.


----------



## Edwood

apologies sinner but I can be a bit thick at times - for market participation wouldn't you be better to look to total assets in mutual funds, not cash-to-asset ratio, which shows asset allocation (i.e., risk perception). 
Can you explain why the cash-to-asset ratio rose during the 2008 decline?  cheers


----------



## Edwood

Might be time for Russell to bounce for the moment


----------



## MRC & Co

From first link, the punch line and core theme of the article:  "Please note that Insider Selling Hits New 2010 High in March. So while mutual funds are loading up, insiders who likely know much more about business fundamentals are selling hand over fist".  

Basically, this is the same as Edwoods post right?  If mutual fund cash reserves are low, 'insiders' are short?  Markets go down.  Same difference?

But a good and interesting post Sinner, thx.  Funny how it gets no responses, most again prefer the 'breakouts' thread from pure laziness when they should be reading things like your post!


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> From first link, the punch line and core theme of the article:  "Please note that Insider Selling Hits New 2010 High in March. So while mutual funds are loading up, insiders who likely know much more about business fundamentals are selling hand over fist".




yeah I think you're right MRC, in my mind its about asset allocation and highlights who is fully invested at the top - not something to trade from on its own, but another pointer to a major correction in the near future.


----------



## Edwood

closed half Russell short and long FTSE now, looking like we could bounce here

kicking off in Greece
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8661385.stm


----------



## Edwood

out of Russell shorts & FTSE long too now.  That was fun

Now long EUR-USD

good evening


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> out of Russell shorts & FTSE long too now.  That was fun
> 
> Now long EUR-USD
> 
> good evening




Ouch, Greece riots are going to cause further EUR/USD weakness.......why long?  

ECB meets tonight, all looks bad.  They jump back into QE mode and EUR gets hit, they don't and contagion spreads......

This is one falling knife I won't be trying to catch.

Equities may at least get bid from decent growth outlooks, but EUR is a dead man walking.


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> Ouch, Greece riots are going to cause further EUR/USD weakness.......why long?
> 
> ECB meets tonight, all looks bad.  They jump back into QE mode and EUR gets hit, they don't and contagion spreads......
> 
> This is one falling knife I won't be trying to catch.




yes you're right, its looking very dodgy.  was only looking for a short-term bounce from oversold and got stopped out so no biggie


----------



## Edwood

Russell approaching lower parallel


----------



## wayneL

Holy Snapping @ssholes Margaret!

Action stations!


----------



## leedskalnin

wayneL said:


> Holy Snapping @ssholes Margaret!
> 
> Action stations!




Plunge protection team must have got stuck in the queue at dunkin doughnut and had their eye off the ball.


----------



## Edwood

that move was definitely dodgy hey?  300-400 drop maybe & stay down, but nearly 1000 on Dow & recover half of it smacks that someone pushed it down to get a fill

I blame it on them options boys Wayne


----------



## Uncle Festivus

wayneL said:


> Holy Snapping @ssholes Margaret!
> 
> Action stations!




Looks like Hawkes Bay is an action station Wayne? Got some room for guests - I will bring my own food, women and ammo........


----------



## wayneL

Uncle Festivus said:


> Looks like Hawkes Bay is an action station Wayne? Got some room for guests - I will bring my own food, women and ammo........




Cool. No need to bring booze though, there are hundreds of wineries and even a brewery within raiding distance.


----------



## MRC & Co

WSJ reports, a Citi algo trader sold 16bil worth of e-mini S&Ps, rather than 16mil which set off more black boxes!

LOL.

Though, do note that it closed pretty much where price was prior to that mistake, so makes a 'capitulation' low look less likely IMO.......


----------



## sinner

MRC & Co said:


> WSJ reports, a Citi algo trader sold 16bil worth of e-mini S&Ps, rather than 16mil which set off more black boxes!
> 
> LOL.
> 
> Though, do note that it closed pretty much where price was prior to that mistake, so makes a 'capitulation' low look less likely IMO.......




What a rubbish excuse for this decline.

As I said on April 26th 3 hours before the EUREX open:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3669657&postcount=5990


> I have the DAX in a wave 5 of 5 on the weekly - expecting an A-B-C down move there base on some sort of fundamental trigger. I think complacency is high and leverage levels are back to pre 2008. With equities mostly around their 62% retrace of the '08 decline it seems like a perfect place for the next wave down to occur - at least in equities.




...cash market shorts from 6030 weekly low have been fun so far with last night culminating in an overall 8% downmove in the index.






> But a good and interesting post Sinner, thx. Funny how it gets no responses, most again prefer the 'breakouts' thread from pure laziness when they should be reading things like your post




Ergh. Still waiting for Trembling Hand to respond to my post in the tick vol on FX thread. So far every single time I've attempted to contribute something tradewise to this forum I've been convinced pretty quickly to just keep my mouth shut.


----------



## Edwood

nice work sinner

See some of the US trades may be unwound.  Problem is if they try to unwind the trades that caused this where do you stop given the ripple effect across all markets?  In terms of maintaining a 'fair & orderly market' its probably the right thing to do - but any a firm that allows dealers to enter a billion units via short cut keys deserves everything it gets


----------



## Edwood

was about to reply to your post sinner but figure you've deleted it?

there's no doubt markets have been going down anyway - but a  move like that - to drop 700pts then recover 600 in 20 mins - is either  error or manipulation


----------



## sinner

Edwood said:


> there's no doubt markets have been going down anyway - but a  move like that - to drop 700pts then recover 600 in 20 mins - is either  error or manipulation




Disagree.

To drop 700pts and then recover 600 in 20 mins is a sign of extremely poor liquidity. Get used to it - we will be seeing plenty of this high volatility low volume type business over the coming while as banks and market makers withdraw their bids. There is a full blown funding crisis happening right now in Eurozone - apart from the sovereign debt crisis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-market-almost-died-courtesy-high-frequency-trading


----------



## Edwood

sinner said:


> Disagree.
> 
> To drop 700pts and then recover 600 in 20 mins is a sign of extremely poor liquidity. Get used to it - we will be seeing plenty of this high volatility low volume type business over the coming while as banks and market makers withdraw their bids. There is a full blown funding crisis happening right now in Eurozone - apart from the sovereign debt crisis.
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-market-almost-died-courtesy-high-frequency-trading




good article - but as they say the order 'error' was the catalyst that set the train in motion


----------



## sinner

Edwood said:


> good article - but as they say the order 'error' was the catalyst that set the train in motion




Maybe I should have been more specific in my linking I was referring directly to the letter from Dennis Dick at the bottom of the article - in the first paragraph he provides an example from Jan 7 of this year whereby Rambus fell by 30% and immediately rallied even before announcement that trades would be busted. This too was blamed on a "fat finger".

Here is a snippet from Dennis Dicks preminitionary article in January 2010:


> That is why the sudden plunge to $16 happened.  If you check the chart, you will not see this, because Nasdaq busted all trades under $22.  But don’t kid yourself, these trades happened, and we should be very alarmed, because it will happen again, and it may happen to the entire stock market




Believe what you want, I am sick of trying to convince people on this forum of things - just tried to share some info you obviously didn't have.


----------



## sinner

Lots and lots of woe on forexfactory today - countless retail traders wiped out. I myself managed to get a short in on USDJPY (avoiding my mainstay GBPUSD until elections finished) during EUREX hours at 93.53 so pretty happy with myself.

I repost under myself to provide more evidence that last nights shenanigans were liquidity related: here is an email sent to FXCM clients (I am not one) last night because many were locked out of their accounts during the craziness.



> Over the recent months, there has been a strong correlation between the US stock markets and the Japanese Yen. When the Dow plunged today, so did the Japanese Yen crosses. We saw JPY crosses drop between 350 (USD/JPY) and 1248 (GBP/JPY) points. We saw comparable volatility in non Yen crosses as well.
> 
> As a result most major banks that provide liquidity to the currency market turned off their FX price feeds for up to 30 minutes. This led to rejected and hanging orders for many FX traders. During this time FXCM immediately routed orders to any remaining banks, however FXCM clients were still subject to the thin liquidity and poor execution being provided by the market.




"any remaining banks" ...yea, right!


----------



## Edwood

sinner said:


> Maybe I should have been more specific in my linking I was referring directly to the letter from Dennis Dick at the bottom of the article - in the first paragraph he provides an example from Jan 7 of this year whereby Rambus fell by 30% and immediately rallied even before announcement that trades would be busted. This too was blamed on a "fat finger".
> 
> Here is a snippet from Dennis Dicks preminitionary article in January 2010:
> 
> Believe what you want, I am sick of trying to convince people on this forum of things - just tried to share some info you obviously didn't have.




mate I'm not arguing, the infos appreciated & makes a lot of sense 

my point is that a move like that is not a fair & orderly market.  maybe you're right maybe we just have to live with it - I'd like to think we didn't have to tho


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## MRC & Co

What do you mean by thin liquidity Sinner?  Volumes on futs were heavy accross the board.......(from FX, commods, equities and bonds)........

When an error like this happens, you get the initial bids taken out, then the book is thin as hell as nobody loads back any volume down the bid, once it is filled, bots come in and buy it up quickly.  I've got a live video (which I don't think I can post due to copyright or something of the like) of the price ladder when a similar situation occured on the SPI a year and a half ago.  This was a buy stop at market though, looks incredible.  Hundred lots trying to get fills and gapping 20-30 points to hit the nxt 2 lot before going on again to find any volume.  At some point, a bot comes on and takes as many fills as it gets before going to town the other way.  

Not saying it's the reason for the entire market down move (as I was short also for many other reasons), but I personally believe it for quick moves like this which would show low liquidity and high volatility for that short period.......


----------



## sinner

MRC & Co said:


> What do you mean by thin liquidity Sinner?  Volumes on futs were heavy accross the board.......(from FX, commods, equities and bonds)........
> 
> When an error like this happens, you get the initial bids taken out, then the book is thin as hell as nobody loads back any volume down the bid, once it is filled, bots come in and buy it up quickly.  I've got a live video (which I don't think I can post due to copyright or something of the like) of the price ladder when a similar situation occured on the SPI a year and a half ago.  This was a buy stop at market though, looks incredible.  Hundred lots trying to get fills and gapping 20-30 points to hit the nxt 2 lot before going on again to find any volume.  At some point, a bot comes on and takes as many fills as it gets before going to town the other way.
> 
> Not saying it's the reason for the entire market down move (as I was short also for many other reasons), but I personally believe it for quick moves like this which would show low liquidity and high volatility for that short period.......




To quote ZH again - sorry but this guy took the words right out of my mouth:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dissecting-crash


> Having seen the capitulation unfold second by second and then listen to CNBC come up with every excuse under the sun just got under my skin.  I've decided to chart some of our one second analytics charts of the capitulation unfolding on our screens.  The chart below (more to follow)  captures the moment of the final capitulation, before the reversal today.  The idea that it was a 'fat finger' error is ludicrous; unless the fat finger hit every market in the world virtually simultaneously.  Liquidity simply left the world financial markets for about four minutes this afternoon.  The bids just vanished....



Clicky to read on.

The chart in question is the 1 second NYSE $TICK histo.


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## MRC & Co

Yes, but previously you stated that after the DOW crash (which if the 'fat finger' is correct, was actually an e-mini S&P crash) which would have put bots onto the initial bids and hence wiped out the front of the book and then easily made it's way through the back in the other US futs contracts, which would then have done the same on the JPY, as bots hit the ask on the 'risk off hedge'.  If the rest of the liquidity was pulled as a safe measure on other crosses etc, that is understandable.  Models would have gone out the window.

But volumes were still extremelly high accross the board, sharp moves though will always be lacking liquidity as the book bar the front orders is always thin so sweeps at market will always take out way too many price levels.

You say there is a banking funding crisis, you can see EUR libor - ois spreads rising along with the US equivelent, so that makes sense.  Fed may place swap lines to ECB to regain liquidity and keep down libor as early as tonight, which would probably see a risk rally.


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## Edwood

crazy days - Dow futs now retraced 61.8% of the entire decline.  insane


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## cutz

Edwood said:


> crazy days - Dow futs now retraced 61.8% of the entire decline.  insane




Indeed,

Check out the eye popping bounce on FESX.


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## Edwood

melt down then melt up - within the space of 3 days lol
its really not looking happy at all


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## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> melt down then melt up - within the space of 3 days lol
> its really not looking happy at all




Yeh, luckily I got out towards the lows on a lot of the moves, but still lost a bit of open profit (hey, can never pick the exact low)!  

Only playing spreads now, so not as much $$$ in them but really unsure on the whole 'risk-on', 'risk-off' scenario at the moment.......

Big Q is how much influence does China (bad figures today, tightening coming soon rather than later by the looks), have on the rest of the world?


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## Trend Hunter

Crazy days alright. Happy days if your on the right side of the market movement.

It was amazing to see the QQQQ and the SPY drop so much in the space of about 12 mins. 

With the Volatility Index (VIX) displaying such extremes last week, playing spreads may be a smart bet, to take some leverage out of the equation.

It will be interesting to see if the VIX settles down over the next week or so, or continues to spike. Either way trading may be a bit volatile over the short term

I'm expecting today's gap open to be filled in the next few days, but we will wait and see.


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## Edwood

Russell leading the way higher, up 2.3% at the moment

There's a large big to fill higher on most US indices - 730 on Russell, 2025 NDX, 1200 SPX, 11150 Dow - could see us up there before too long


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## skyQuake

Well thats a nice move for copper...

Good morning BHP tomorrow will be interesting


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## Edwood

Edwood said:


> There's a large big to fill higher on most US indices - 730 on Russell, 2025 NDX, 1200 SPX, 11150 Dow - could see us up there before too long




oops meant to say there's a large gap to fill, not a large big - must learn to typo with more than 1 finger


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## Edwood

daily vix looks to have given a buy signal today for US indices


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## Edwood

From Updata
1067 achieved Friday, we might still get 1031 but could see a base come in here for a few days


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## sinner

Just read Martin Armstrong convinced '08 was the low and we will see new highs after the Dow tests 9600. I know Nick Radge dislikes him, but for some reason that makes me all the more interested in his predictions.

He also makes an interesting slate on UST bonds, but I will leave that up to the enquiring minds (hint: he has already been half right on this call and we might see him right on the other half if LIBOR >75bps triggering a rout in US 2y)

I am not convinced either way and my trading timeframe is too short to care from a trading perspective - but thought it worth posting for posterity here.

We can come back and deride or applaud as appropriate once we reach the event horizon.

PS: for an equivalent Dow:Gold ratio bottom at ~2.0 we would be looking for roughly 5000USD/oz to meet the 9600 number at 1.92 ratio. I am not writing this number as a prediction, just a back of the napkin calculation for those interested.


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## sinner

Hi guys,

Here is my DAX analysis. It was formulated using a different method, but I "translated" it into S/R and round numbers so as to avoid any controversy regarding technique. I know TH doesn't like MT4 for charting, but perhaps a lack of fence sitting will make up for that.

R: 6050
S: 5950

Anticipating a failure to close above S on the daily in the next five trading days. What will follow is the three targets (blue dotted), 5475, 5180 and eventually 4700.
Trading signal would be daily close below S, action to short the DAX cash or futs with a stop above the failure high. Positions to be added at the first two blue lines on the way down, take profit at 4700.

Just to stir the pot a little, I'll take 6008 as the failure high "cowboy call".


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## sinner

Just me in here, is it?

Failure high has resulted in close below S on the daily as expected. *My* trade parameters are as per above. Please do not follow this trade or read it as any sort of recommendation. This analysis and trade sequence only posted for the benefit and discussion of other traders.


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## Broadway

Sinner, your chart was too dark to read yesterday, and its hard to discuss a method when all you mention was 'using a different method'.

But as for being bearish, I think we all agree, you'll have trouble finding a bull in here. Not while the euro is being continuously sold into every squeeze. 

More wiggling around to come but oil and euro still leading the entire show.


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## sinner

Broadway said:


> Sinner, your chart was too dark to read yesterday, and its hard to discuss a method when all you mention was 'using a different method'.
> 
> But as for being bearish, I think we all agree, you'll have trouble finding a bull in here. Not while the euro is being continuously sold into every squeeze.
> 
> More wiggling around to come but oil and euro still leading the entire show.




Sorry mate. I did not realise the chart was too dark. My guess is those MT4 bars are just too thin to view properly at that zoom level! I'll stick to the PRT EOD charts for posting here.

I didn't wish to cause any controversy over the analysis method so I converted the trade sequence into a simple support/resistance trading plan. People should be able to discuss/agree/disagree on a parametrized sequence regardless of their opinions on any one "method".

As for your last two statements, I am inclined to disagree. I believe there will shortly be a decoupling between equities and forex and oil. Certainly the traditional correlations between EURUSD and ES during NY market hours have been long broken with EURJPY correlation now occurring during low vol periods. I already spent the first half of this year selling GBPUSD and buying FTSE calls to good effect - so am less interested in the correlated markets idea for any useful trading purpose.


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## sinner

Well, my trade was stopped cold last night. During the hour I thought breakdown would occur we rallied back above 5950 and this was a sign something was up. Woke up to find myself stopped.

Unsure where we go from here (but bias is up now), will watch how the price reacts to 6050.


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## Edwood

Hi Sinner - sorry been up at Vomo for a bit, hope all has been going OK

Anyone else thinking correction over, and on to new highs for the year?

Ed


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## Edwood

update on that strategy to buy the wed into opex, sell teh mon after (Dow)
pretty much exact same chart on XAO fwiw

pretty cr4p again this quarter


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## Edwood

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/...ts-braced-for-solar-tsunami-to-hit-earth.html


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## Edwood

not really international indices but interesting...

I found it interesting that hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller announced   his retirement this week, ending an incredible 30-year run in hedge fund management.   And today's New York Times ran a story highlighting the ongoing difficulties   suffered by the "quant" hedge funds. Massive government stimulus may be benefiting   bond fund managers, but it's certainly not improving the overall functioning   of the financial markets. I would not be surprised if sophisticated market   operators such as Mr. Druckenmiller look at the current backdrop and are content   to exit the game before the bloody havoc of the next bursting Bubble.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17910/lets-change-the-debate

Have had a good week shorting AUD against NZD, shame I closed into the weekend.....


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## Edwood

FTSE getting close to the upper parallel of the very long term down fork which got the April reaction.  Around 5620 would see it contact


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## tech/a

Nice thanks for the chart


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## Edwood

Thanks Tech

Dow futs spiking up for expiry - & taking FTSE with it - Aussie not following tho....

pop n drop?


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## Edwood

FTSE spiked to 5612 cash (& 5617 on spreadbet) & now selling down - didn't quite make that 5620.  Guess that's a fail then...?
short now anyways


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## tech/a

Edwood said:


> FTSE spiked to 5612 cash (& 5617 on spreadbet) & now selling down - didn't quite make that 5620.  Guess that's a fail then...?
> short now anyways




Nice.
I was out at dinner spending money!
My chart says 5599 big volume spike like a beacon!


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## Edwood

key reversal day on FTSE today as well, looks like US is trying to hold up til next week

what time was that volume spike Tech, might've just been expiry at 10:15?


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## Edwood

not much posting here for a while, strange considering XAO has been treading water / range-bound for so long...

Update on the very long term FTSE view.  Broke through the upper parallel on downtrending PF, retested then bounced to median line on the uptrending PF.  A break higher to the upper parallel would be interesting   but can't see it myself


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## sinner

Fresh bear proposition:

* Potential impulse 5 wave up formation occurred in Q310, Q410. Blue pitchfork supporting, wave 3 high intersects the median line, 1180 as wave 4 low candidate. I would not expect wave 5 to reach the median line again.

* Market breadth diverging, Summation Index did not support the move higher during December although I recognise this may be possible for other than index bearish reasons and therefore continue to watch market breadth closely.

* Ivolatility.com IVX mean very close to 52wk lows, VIX itself close to longer term weekly support at 16.

Based on wave count we could expect a test of wave 4 lows or below in an A-B-C corrective formation. The timeline for a correction could be quite short, as equity put/call ratio relative to its 50 day moving avg show the options market is relatively complacent about the swing up from 1000 lows.

To attempt profit from this proposal, I bought OTM 118 SPY puts for Feb and March expiry at market cost of 0.39 and 1.03 per contract respectively.


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## sinner

sinner said:


> Fresh bear proposition:




Remainder of supporting charts:

1. 10 day SMA of NYSE Advance/Decline. As you can see there has been serious trouble making those higher highs since Sept '10 and we are stuck in a smaller consolidation for now 500 is clearly resistance even as we continue to make higher highs on the index. 



2. TRIN (short term index) approaching overbought, a move below 0.5 followed by close back inside the 20,1 bollinger of TRIN could be indicative of a short term top (> 2-3 is oversold).



3. VIX weekly P&F plot to highlight potential support and revisit of longer term low. Obviously the potential for a further breakdown exists, but for now I am game to buy puts as speculation on the anti-complacency side. 



The low pole reversal pattern is actually quite strong (although I don't know about weekly p&f chart patterns) and as long as there is no lower low here it could be an indicator for higher volatility that I didn't consider previously.


> The low pole reversal pattern begins with a long column of Os down, which is considered the low pole. A low pole is defined as a column of Os that drops more than three boxes below the previous column of Os. In the chart above, you will see that the second column of Os falls below the first column of Os by five boxes. The Os represent supply and eventually the selling will subside and demand will resurface causing the chart to reverse up in to a column of Xs. If the initial amount of demand is substantial, often times it indicates a low is in place for the stock. The initial demand is considered substantial if the column of Xs that follows the low pole retraces the low pole by more than 50%. To determine the 50% level one would add up the number of Os in the low pole column. In the chart above there are nine Os in the low pole. Therefore, the next column of Xs needs to retrace it by more than 50%, or by at least five Xs.



From http://www.arlington-capital.com/point_figure_charts/buy_signals/low_pole_reversal.cfm

So we would need to see the VIX at 19 with no lower low on the weekly to satisfy the 50% retracement rule and meet this setup. Reversal below probably indicates I am very wrong and volatility is about to get killed while the index melts up another 50 points.


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## Edwood

nice analysis Sinner, thanks 

fwiw I agree we're at a possible turn point - but I'm not underestimating the potential to pop-&-grind this higher, especially given last year with 134 of the total 143 S&P points gained coming on the 1st trading day of each month


----------



## sinner

Edwood said:


> nice analysis Sinner, thanks
> 
> fwiw I agree we're at a possible turn point - but I'm not underestimating the potential to pop-&-grind this higher, especially given last year with 134 of the total 143 S&P points gained coming on the 1st trading day of each month




Agreed 100% Edwood.

This is an opportunistic trade standing in front of the Fed. Low premiums on bearish OTM options provided a slightly more interesting R:R to just shorting the futs otherwise I would not have taken it at all.

Pretty bad numbers out of the US last night, as well as extremely bad downward revisions of the Dec numbers by BLS. More numbers on their way out of the US tonight. Lastly, Treasuries seem to be at a tradeable support level so if they bounce higher on POMO buying or a "rush to safety" after bad numbers tonight it's likely the SP500 will move down a little.




Last nights volume was up on the previous days, buyers managed to push the price a teensy bit above the prior high before sellers took control but in the end sellers weren't able to even test the prior low and we barely closed down.


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## professor_frink

sinner said:


> Remainder of supporting charts:
> 
> 1. 10 day SMA of NYSE Advance/Decline. As you can see there has been serious trouble making those higher highs since Sept '10 and we are stuck in a smaller consolidation for now 500 is clearly resistance even as we continue to make higher highs on the index.
> View attachment 40821




Hi sinner,

Just wanted to make a comment on this chart - when looking at breadth with a fixed lookback period like you are doing here, it's going to lead you astray a little IMHO.

When you look at a rally as it develops, the initial stages are obviously going to be the strongest with the better breadth numbers coming in. As the rally develops and the % moves become smaller, you'll end up with a breadth chart that looks a little sick, when in fact all that's happening is the stronger breadth numbers are being dropped from the calculation and are being replaced by ones that are still in line with the market moves at the time, but that are slightly weaker than the ones being dropped.

To better illustrate what I'm getting at(well trying to anyway!), have a look at the ad line average that you illustrated in your post, but plot the ROC with the same lookback period on the chart. What you'll find is they will track each other fairly closely. Chart below should show what I'm talking about. Hopefully the chart is big enough I took the screenshot on my netbook.




Personally I think you'd be better off just looking at cumulative ad lines for this type of thing.

Apart from that one small point, thanks for the post, twas interesting

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co

Out of interest Professor, does that 10 SMA of NYSE adv/dec measure on a % basis?  Because the rolling 10 day avg adv/dec line I use from 'now' Bloomey data only measures advancers vs decliners, not % moves, however, like Sinners/your oscillator there, the 'breadth' or at least advancers relative to decliners, are still very low consdering the index keeps printing new highs.........


----------



## professor_frink

MRC & Co said:


> Out of interest Professor, does that 10 SMA of NYSE adv/dec measure on a % basis?  Because the rolling 10 day avg adv/dec line I use from 'now' Bloomey data only measures advancers vs decliners, not % moves, however, like Sinners/your oscillator there, the 'breadth' or at least advancers relative to decliners, are still very low consdering the index keeps printing new highs.........



 G'day MRC, good to see you still floating around the place

The top avg is just based on the number of advancers minus decliners for each day.

Just as a small side note as well too, most weakness that's coming out of any breadth measures on the NYSE is coming from the muni funds - pretty well everything that's making new 52 week lows right now is coming from there, which IMO is going to be polluting the numbers a little.

Of course that can all change if the market decides to start focusing on the problems in that area, but right now it doesn't appear to be an issue


----------



## sinner

professor_frink said:


> Hi sinner,
> 
> Just wanted to make a comment on this chart - when looking at breadth with a fixed lookback period like you are doing here, it's going to lead you astray a little IMHO.
> 
> Personally I think you'd be better off just looking at cumulative ad lines for this type of thing.
> 
> Apart from that one small point, thanks for the post, twas interesting
> 
> Cheers




Hi frinky,

Exactly as I stated:



> I recognise this may be possible for other than index bearish reasons and therefore continue to watch market breadth closely.




Secondly, the McClellan Summation Index is cumulative and this is what I watch most closely. The divergence is clearly marked.

Thanks for your thoughts 

MRC, the AD line I used to get 10-sma of, calculation here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:advance_decline_indi


		Code:
	

=AD Line (previous value) + Net Advances (current value)


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## MRC & Co

Yep, still float in and out from time to time Frink.    Hope all is well with you and the trading is doing well!  I get what you mean now, sorry misread and thought you meant the adv/dec line was measuring % moves, didn't see the part where you talked about the earlier results dropping out of the calc.  

Thx for the link Sinner.


----------



## Edwood

Yes good to see you're still around Mr MRC 

Russell not very happy overnight, still holding the trend line but with Vix sell signal on board now it all looks a little more interesting


----------



## professor_frink

sinner said:


> Hi frinky,
> 
> Exactly as I stated:
> 
> 
> 
> Secondly, the McClellan Summation Index is cumulative and this is what I watch most closely. The divergence is clearly marked.
> 
> Thanks for your thoughts
> 
> MRC, the AD line I used to get 10-sma of, calculation here:
> http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:advance_decline_indi
> 
> 
> Code:
> 
> 
> =AD Line (previous value) + Net Advances (current value)




all good sinner

Good luck with the short



MRC & Co said:


> Yep, still float in and out from time to time Frink.    Hope all is well with you and the trading is doing well!  I get what you mean now, sorry misread and thought you meant the adv/dec line was measuring % moves, didn't see the part where you talked about the earlier results dropping out of the calc.
> 
> Thx for the link Sinner.




yeah trading is going quite nicely MRC, been a little bit of a slow start to the year, went flat before Christmas looking to jump on board an early year pullback when I got back into the swing of things, so unfortunately missed a bit of this recent rally. Hope all is going well for you


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> Yes good to see you're still around Mr MRC
> 
> Russell not very happy overnight, still holding the trend line but with Vix sell signal on board now it all looks a little more interesting




howdy Ed

I'm in 2 minds about things currently. Vix had moved into a very oversold position by my reckoning earlier this week, but I've only really found it to be a short term(less than 2 weeks) bearish scenario for the SPX.

Most of the analysis I'm doing, and seeing from other people suggests that if we do pop down a few % from here that it's most likely just another dip buying opportunity.

Of course that could all change as things develop further


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> I've only really found it to be a short term(less than 2 weeks) bearish scenario for the SPX.
> 
> Most of the analysis I'm doing, and seeing from other people suggests that if we do pop down a few % from here that it's most likely just another dip buying opportunity.
> 
> Of course that could all change as things develop further




hey G, how's things??

yeah there's plenty of potential to continue higher, climbing this wall of worry - but doing a bit of trawling around the traps there are some extreme readings around which come along pretty infrequently (could all just be a reflection of the extent of underlying stimulus mind) so that's got me watching more closely for a potential turn.

Key as always is not to try to anticipate it!!


----------



## Edwood

clear 5 down off the highs now for FTSE on the hrly, and RUT is out of its trend line support.  

early days - but looks to be some strength behind it....


----------



## Edwood

large collapse in UK consumer confidence - not sure why they're so surprised given teh VAT rise + winter blues + austerity measures.  
Shame the euphoria from ashes win has worn off already 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-confidence-suffers-astonishing-collapse.html


----------



## Edwood

sad days for the people of Christchurch 

Thought this was interesting - shows the dates of the first major Christchurch earthquake (Sept 4, a Saturday) and the latest one, against the NDX....


----------



## Edwood

so those quake dates, corresponding with major market turns recently, tie in with moon phases.  Next quake (& possibly market turn?) due March 19-20

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=339&type=home


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## Edwood

Bollies on the Dow weekly suggesting 13,000 as a target - could take a while to get there of course


----------



## tech/a

Edwood said:


> Bollies on the Dow weekly suggesting 13,000 as a target - could take a while to get there of course




Its a 20 period displaced M/A
Means bugger all.


----------



## Edwood

tech/a said:


> Its a 20 period displaced M/A
> Means bugger all.




a decent break often leads to a move back to the opposite bolly - subject to PA confirming, divergence on indies etc

about as useful as EW mind


----------



## Edwood

decent pop following the EU decision, strong day shaping up for Europe, FTSE pointing >2% gap up for the open


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> Bollies on the Dow weekly suggesting 13,000 as a target - could take a while to get there of course




practically 1000pts since then, should be at 13k before Christmas (weekly view)


----------



## Edwood

slowly getting closer, not convinced we'll make it now appears we're heading into an ED


----------



## Edwood

US indices looking quite strong, AAPL doing great - DOW 13,000 still on the cards then


----------



## Edwood

theres the Dow 13,000 - no sign of slowing up just yet


----------



## Edwood

13,500 looking likely next.  
Seen some NZD-USD targets for year end which imply 14,250 area for Dow, assuming similar % change.
if you believe in the 'all-one-market' model mind....


----------



## Punta

Hi guys, I'm wondering if anyone has an opinion on which international index futures behave "similarly" to the SPI200?  I don't mean correlated with the SPI200, but rather the market movements have similar characteristics. 

I've written a trading bot for the SPI200 futures that is currently forward testing on a single contract.  I'm curious to see whether the same or similar algo would work for other futures markets.  It's based on 5-second bars though, so pulling the historical data off IB to backtest is non-trivial.  As such, I thought I'd ask if anyone with more experience has an opinion on which futures contracts make the most sense to go for.  Down Jones (INDU)? Mini Dow (YM)? FTSE100 (Z)? S&P500 (SPX)? HSI?

I get the impression from the HSI thread that it's more volatile than the SPI, because the index covers fewer sectors, so maybe the US/UK indices are a more sensible first punt?

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

Punta said:


> Hi guys, I'm wondering if anyone has an opinion on which international index futures behave "similarly" to the SPI200? I don't mean correlated with the SPI200, but rather the market movements have similar characteristics.
> 
> I've written a trading bot for the SPI200 futures that is currently forward testing on a single contract. I'm curious to see whether the same or similar algo would work for other futures markets. It's based on 5-second bars though, so pulling the historical data off IB to backtest is non-trivial. As such, I thought I'd ask if anyone with more experience has an opinion on which futures contracts make the most sense to go for. Down Jones (INDU)? Mini Dow (YM)? FTSE100 (Z)? S&P500 (SPX)? HSI?
> 
> I get the impression from the HSI thread that it's more volatile than the SPI, because the index covers fewer sectors, so maybe the US/UK indices are a more sensible first punt?
> 
> Cheers,




hi Punta - haven't looked at SPI for ages, however in the past the main similarity with Z is behaviour around gap opens

Good luck
Ed


----------

