# Retail Trading for a Living Milestone - "Feed my ego"/Thought sharing



## minwa

Hello everyone I just achieved a big target of mine and felt like posting it for bragging/encouragement seeking, but in return I will share some of my experiences so I feel like it's a fair trade . I admit my weakness in ego and I desire some validation for my achievement, and I rather get it from "strangers" on the net than letting my real life friends know(for obvious reasons).

My milestone was a 6 figure month from trading, Jan 2016, I have 2 separate accounts:






The volatility created great opportunities and big daily moves up & down were just goldmines. 

A quick biography on how I got started..started in ASX stock market when I was in high school, got sucked into seminars, wasted money & time studying those crap, or so I thought at that time..looking back now, knowing this useless stuff is actually useful - because this is how most retail suckers trade. That is an insight, learned at a premium. 

I was playing World of Warcraft back then, and found success in trading it's commodities. They had auction houses where you can list items for sale and people can bid stuff. I actually ended up spending more time trading in game than killing monsters. There were "commodity" items, consumables that were widely used to craft armor for example, like copper bars. I watched prices and bought and sold it regularly. It basically paralleled real life markets as the psychology are the same. I learnt many lessons such as certain times of days would be high liquidity and how being patient can make money off the impatient.

Few years forward, after blowing up 2 accounts finally found proper mentors & resources. I was so engrossed in trading this is what happened to my finance uni grades:




Perseverance was key..After finding some success, kept honing at it and then it compounds really fast..I also think you need total confidence, I never felt like giving up, my questioning of whether I will make it in trading or not were very short lived. I'll write some random thoughts next few days, any questions fire away..just be warned if it's trading specifics and its not of my belief I will rip it apart without mercy..just keep in mind it's my opinion only and I'm sure there are others with opposing belief that are successful with them.


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## avion

Awesome Minwa! Congrats...!


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## captain black

minwa said:


> Perseverance was key..After finding some success, kept honing at it and then it compounds really fast..I also think you need total confidence, I never felt like giving up, my questioning of whether I will make it in trading or not were very short lived.




I think at some point you reach the mindset where you know that this is what you want to do and failure isn't an option. I mentioned in another thread that this is the best job in the world when you get it right.

Well done, anyone else who does this for a living knows how much work goes into getting to the point you've got to.


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## VSntchr

minwa said:


> My milestone was a 6 figure month from trading



Good stuff Minwa! 
Great to see ASFers succeeding.


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## JJZ

Congratulations!  You didnt just get there, you smashed it.

The timing with your post is perfect. 

I was feeling little down with my newbie progress, your post has shown me what can be achieved. It has given me the incentive to continue.

PS PM me your techniques/system lol.

JJZ


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## systematic

Congrats and enjoy, minwa.  The thing I love the most is just seeing someone pursue the thing they are most passionate about.


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## DaveDaGr8

Just out of curiosity, what universe are you trading in ???


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## CanOz

Really stunning results Minwa, well done!

I especially like that fact that you were able to capitalize on the volatility, which is a regime change that one has to make use of when it comes along. I have done ok through this, but my regrets are not being in a position to capitalize on it to the potential i should have, where you clearly have done that. I guess the good news is that it could be here to stay for a while yet...

Making use of special conditions like this to the extent that you have gives you a cushion as well, to adapt or work through another change in market regimes. 

Of course I'm not going to ask about your specific strategies but I'm interested in knowing how your experience is with finding new opportunities and how long you find some 'edges' (for lack of a better word) work for before you need new ideas....I'm quite interested in this topic myself, as i know that things just don't work forever.

I'm also very interested in the self improvement process you used, did you improve some of your performance by rigorously examining your trades to find the gems that are repeatable etc...?

Finally I'm also curious how your risk aversion profile has changed over this period as well. For me, at nearly 50 i find I've become extremely risk averse, yet becoming more confident with the stuff that works well, allows me certain comfort in putting on the trade ideas.

Anyway, you are in the top 1% in my view, possessing an uncanny ability to synthesize ideas into executed actions to achieve a rate of return that is the envy of all us. Well done, congratulations on finally and truly 'getting there'....You're an inspiration mate


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## skc

Congrats Minwa. Thanks for sharing and a great story re trading on Warcraft. I've never heard that before. I wish you continued success and look forward to your post when you have a 7 figure month (measured in local currency). 



minwa said:


> Few years forward, after blowing up 2 accounts finally found proper mentors & resources.




For the aspiring traders out there... any more stories on this aspect?


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## ThingyMajiggy

Very nice, congrats minwa  

I am interested to know how old you are? Am I seeing that right in that you have two accounts with north of 300K in both? As having a decent sized account to begin with is my biggest issue, not my trading, can you explain any more on how you were initially funded/how you started? You seem young'ish from your posts/RMIT emails etc. but may not be so. What's your background, as far as are you some kind of math god?  

Also what are you actually trading(stocks, futs, fx etc) and over what time frame? 

Again very nicely done!


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## minwa

Big thanks everyone who have celebrated with me so far, and going forward. To not flood the thread I'll be replying to questions and interesting comments only, but I know I appreciate it all ! 



DaveDaGr8 said:


> Just out of curiosity, what universe are you trading in ???




Do you mean what markets ? Started out in ASX stocks/options moved onto US stocks/options now US futures and occasionally options. Forex too but that is in another account, which I will bring up later.



captain black said:


> I think at some point you reach the mindset where you know that this is what you want to do and failure isn't an option. I mentioned in another thread that this is the best job in the world when you get it right.
> 
> Well done, anyone else who does this for a living knows how much work goes into getting to the point you've got to.




Amen to that !



skc said:


> For the aspiring traders out there... any more stories on this aspect?




Yes, I cut the story short a bit felt tired and went to sleep..it will be continued thorughout.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> I am interested to know how old you are? Am I seeing that right in that you have two accounts with north of 300K in both? As having a decent sized account to begin with is my biggest issue, not my trading, can you explain any more on how you were initially funded/how you started? You seem young'ish from your posts/RMIT emails etc. but may not be so. What's your background, as far as are you some kind of math god?
> 
> Also what are you actually trading(stocks, futs, fx etc) and over what time frame?




I will be 25 this year. Started when I was 16. I am luckier than most, my parents have average household income but have saved well. They initially founded me twice which I blew out first 2 or 3 years. Capital funding and along with seminar BS they probably invested $15k initially in me. Then after a very bad first year in Uni I took a year break from uni, worked full time in a crappy job (13/hr cash laborious job). Saved $10k myself and all while refining my trading, this is when I started seeing success. My brother also joined in and learned a bit on trading and after about another year of results parents were convinced and funded me $150k(relatives also added about another $100k few months later). My brother certainly helped convincing as I tend to be the more emotional greedy one while he is the conservative patient one, so a second opinion that I could "do it" and not delusional certainly helped. I worked in my job for almost another year while trading. Compound really is magic..I surprise myself everyday as every 1% I make is a few % of my initial capital.

I'd work all day, get home and sleep all evening and trade for a few hours then sleep a bit before going to work. Sounds tough but I didn't think it was because I loved it, it was like playing video games which I'd be doing anyway if I wasn't trading.  Being more of an introvert certainly helped. Don't enjoy partying/clubbing, I don't drink either. Only liked chilling with a few close friends most of time. Didn't have a GF those few years.

Don't have any background ! Finished year 12, dropped outta uni. Maths background is very average..I got like 34 for Further Maths and 25 for Maths Methods for ENTER/ATAR. Beyond general arithmetic, I only find basic statistics useful for trading. 

See above for what I trade. I've done most styles but now I day trade futures (mostly ES), sometimes hold them overnight if move is strong. Options I will hold for few more days but rarely more than a week. I used to believe day trades should stay day trades but have found that having a small portion left and being ambitious on that have paid off well overall, especially with the recent few months volatility.


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## minwa

CanOz said:


> but I'm interested in knowing how your experience is with finding new opportunities and how long you find some 'edges' (for lack of a better word) work for before you need new ideas....I'm quite interested in this topic myself, as i know that things just don't work forever.




My belief is my price action is based on manipulation by big boys. I believe they will work forever, as long as markets are freely traded and liquid enough. Price engineering (pulling suckers in) to seek liquidity/orders will always be the same, I don't see how it can change. For example, look at a daily bar chart of any liquid market, in most range expansion bars you will see Open, with a small wick below forming low, upswing making a high, then retrace off a bit into the close with a small upper wick. Rarely is the open the low and the close the high. Those wicks are where manipulation is happening to me. Now look back at the charts 30 years ago in any liquid market, the bars still look same. Same manipulation, I don't see how it will change and stop working without major changes/interference in the laws of trading. 



CanOz said:


> I'm also very interested in the self improvement process you used, did you improve some of your performance by rigorously examining your trades to find the gems that are repeatable etc...?




For my core setup, I started out taking the intradays price action that had my setups, snapshorting them. Over a few months and with many examples, after studying them, you will see your setup as they unfold in real time. Time of day they reacted, day of week, higher time frame levels they keyed off etc. Once I see it consistently over time, I can't unsee it. It was building discipline and trusting the setup over time. Discipline before action. Most don't have it nor ever develop it. Seeing the setups & not taking them is hard early on. It passes over time.

But also the setup is not the most important. It's not how you trade patterns. It's how you manage your equity on that pattern, one setup at a time. The math takes care of itself. One setup, one trade at a time.



CanOz said:


> Finally I'm also curious how your risk aversion profile has changed over this period as well. For me, at nearly 50 i find I've become extremely risk averse, yet becoming more confident with the stuff that works well, allows me certain comfort in putting on the trade ideas.




Agree, I have also gotten more risk averse over time. Lowering draw down is much more important to me than making a higher return. Once or twice a year I get overly cocky (always coincides with times where I am counting money etc/projecting how much I will make etc.) and experience double digit drawdown. This is something I am working on, I don't like any total equity draw downs of higher than 10%. Will see if I can achieve it this year. Sounds like you are almost getting there, more confidence while risk adverse.


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## Trembling Hand

minwa said:


> I will be 25 this year. Started when I was 16.




Nice work, 10 years of work and refining skill . Aint there a rule about that somewhere?



minwa said:


> Compound really is magic..I surprise myself everyday as every 1% I make is a few % of my initial capital.
> 
> 
> Didn't have a GF those few years.




Bet you do now..... they can smell compound returns......


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## Modest

Congratulation mate that is awesome. And thanks for posting it is very encouraging.

I expect no less than 2 bottles of Dom Perignon this weekend for your celebration.


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## darkhorse70

Congrats man, inspiring stuff.


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## Gringotts Bank

Well done, and thanks for the insights mw.


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## Modest

Legit just heard this song and thought of you minwa:


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## fiftyeight

Awesome work, great to see someone having success. Feed the ego all you need



minwa said:


> Few years forward, after blowing up 2 accounts finally found proper mentors & resources




Finding good mentors seems to be a common theme when reading about successful traders, how did you find yours?


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## skyQuake

Gratz mate!



minwa said:


> I'd work all day, get home and sleep all evening and trade for a few hours then sleep a bit before going to work. Sounds tough but I didn't think it was because I loved it, it was like playing video games which I'd be doing anyway if I wasn't trading.  Being more of an introvert certainly helped. Don't enjoy partying/clubbing, I don't drink either. Only liked chilling with a few close friends most of time. Didn't have a GF those few years.




Living the life! Once you get into trading nothing else compares!


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## Trendnomics

"_There are old traders, there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders_" - Ed Seykota

+

"_The markets are the best ego regulator_" - Unknown​


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## Triathlete

Well done Minwa..Inspiring!!

Just goes to prove once again that anything is possible in life if you have an unwavering desire and commitment to succeed....

Having the right mentors and your own style helps.


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## minwa

Been pretty busy with Lunar New Year, sorry left a few questions unanswered. Thanks everyone else for the encouragement/acknowledgement.



fiftyeight said:


> Finding good mentors seems to be a common theme when reading about successful traders, how did you find yours?




Went through the "guru" phase for a couple of years, after spending a few grand I got delusional, and believe whatever crap I was fed, just so I don't like an idiot for paying and studying crap that don't work (system was trendline + stochastics + RSI + bollinger bands). I think I clung to that false hope to make myself feel better. I kept the subscriptions (of course they charge monthly subscription fees on top of their overpriced brokerage after spending few grand on junk course)  going until my trading & bank account were emptied. 

Thank god I was still in high school then with no job, if I had a job I would've had the money to keep the subscriptions going, not sure how much longer I would've been stuck in that crap. It was the lowest point of my trading career, but also the start of the beginning of a turnaround. I then turned to studying random stuff on the internet (thanks err "sharers" - I heard from one of my schoolteachers that pirating for educational purposes is legal) went through a few popular authors and settled on Larry Williams, his price action stuff made sense to me. 

I then found an online group studying his stuff, it was OK but no breakthroughs and after a while chatting with another participant introduced me to someone else who taught for free. He's a former Citibank trader. It wasn't a direct personal mentoring (although I'm sure I was noticed as I participated in everything I could & asked questions.). One time he asked who wanted a more in depth service where for a few days a week he would analyse the market live and teach for like $200/month. After doing a poll, he showed the results and said there was like a hundred something people who were willing. Then he stated he can easily collect $25k+ per month, but he doesn't need that money and was just a demonstration. Those who need to collect are not doing as well as they present themselves to be - all he wanted is a success story and someone to take his tools & eventually soar above him. He stated his trading weaknesses and gaps in his tools, and was excited about the prospect of someone possibly filling them.

It took almost a year of study while working but was amazing.  He has retired already from teaching otherwise I'd just point those interested to him. Although trading is very personal, he has many critics who found no value in his method, definitely more so than his real dedicated students.



Modest said:


> Congratulation mate that is awesome. And thanks for posting it is very encouraging.
> 
> I expect no less than 2 bottles of Dom Perignon this weekend for your celebration.




Cheers but I think stated earlier I don't touch anything alcoholic  .



Trembling Hand said:


> Nice work, 10 years of work and refining skill . Aint there a rule about that somewhere?
> 
> 
> 
> Bet you do now..... they can smell compound returns......




LOL I try not to explain too much about it, my current GF still thinks it's some sort of gambling. She can't know I am mostly bored & free most of the day or I will be asked to run too much errands for her 



Trendnomics said:


> "_There are old traders, there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders_" - Ed Seykota
> 
> +
> 
> "_The markets are the best ego regulator_" - Unknown​




Good quotes, my ego is my weakness, I have to keep reminding myself I will be humbled, which really helps me notice it when it happens and keeps the draw down in check.

--

Been busy haven't been trading too much for Feb..don't mind though while there were good opportunities with the volatility, I still prefer steadier markets and more slower consistency. My inflated trading ego will probably sabotage me too, probably would've tried to match last month's awesome results & forced trades.


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## captain black

minwa said:


> One time he asked who wanted a more in depth service where for a few days a week he would analyse the market live and teach for like $200/month. After doing a poll, he showed the results and said there was like a hundred something people who were willing. Then he stated he can easily collect $25k+ per month, but he doesn't need that money and was just a demonstration. Those who need to collect are not doing as well as they present themselves to be - all he wanted is a success story and someone to take his tools & eventually soar above him. He stated his trading weaknesses and gaps in his tools, and was excited about the prospect of someone possibly filling them.




Great story 

There's some genuine people out there and quite a few on this forum who are happy to share with no expectation of anything in return other than the satisfaction of seeing someone else succeed.

I remember when I first started using Amibroker I was amazed at some of the stuff people had put together (eg. GreatPig's Looping PDF on ASF) and shared. I always make an effort now to answer questions in the Amibroker section here particularly, hoping one of the newbies starting out comes back in a couple of years and posts something that I can learn from.


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## History Repeats

Always loved those  trading stories


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## fiftyeight

minwa said:


> Been pretty busy with Lunar New Year, sorry left a few questions unanswered. Thanks everyone else for the encouragement/acknowledgement.




Cheers for this, great post

Especially this, love it



> After doing a poll, he showed the results and said there was like a hundred something people who were willing. Then he stated he can easily collect $25k+ per month, but he doesn't need that money and was just a demonstration.


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## aramz

Any more updates minwa?


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## Wysiwyg

> Capital funding and along with seminar BS they probably invested $15k initially in me. Then after a very bad first year in Uni I took a year break from uni, worked full time in a crappy job (13/hr cash laborious job). Saved $10k myself and all while refining my trading, this is when I started seeing success. My brother also joined in and learned a bit on trading and after about another year of results parents were convinced and funded me $150k(relatives also added about another $100k few months later).




Wish my parents had this much faith in me. $250k on their most trustworthy son/relative....


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## luutzu

Wysiwyg said:


> Wish my parents had this much faith in me. $250k on their most trustworthy son/relative....




Love and faith are intangibles. Money on the other hand...


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## ukulele

Wow, here I was with a 10k trading account somewhat happy with my results up 2.5% market overall down 5%. 

Good job mate keep it up. I have a long way to go!


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## minwa

aramz said:


> Any more updates minwa?




Feb was a boring trading month, didn't trade much because of LNY. March was pretty good, not spectacular like Jan but still got close to 6 figures. 







Love the power of compound..Always surprise myself every time when totalling $ amount, even though I know my % , it gets easier and easier as your account grows. 

I also reached a target profit earnings and have just ordered a BMW M2 Pure Editon . It won't be here until towards end of year though..very slow production

Not sure how financially sensible this decision will be..we will find out I guess. Live & learn.

Unsure what to continue this thread with..feel free to ask any questions. Maybe I will rant on some of technical analyst's favorite tools..


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## Modest

minwa said:


> I also reached a target profit earnings and have just ordered a BMW M2 Pure Editon . It won't be here until towards end of year though..very slow production




What colour, green? 
	

		
			
		

		
	






minwa said:


> Unsure what to continue this thread with..feel free to ask any questions. *Maybe I will rant on some of technical analyst's favorite tools*..




I am already looking forward to this...


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## kid hustlr

Balling Minwa - very cool.

How many round trips a day on average?


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## dryath

Awesome work Minwa! - For an aspiring trader, but not yet successful investor - what are the top books you would recommend for either equities or options (I haven't yet progressed to futures)?

Can you tell us a little more about your options journey? (Something I dabble in, but have yet to achieve something to write home about).

Cheers,
dryath


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## Gringotts Bank

Minwa, whenever someone makes big money like this, I wonder what stops the broker from exploiting the situation?

A simple program could piggyback or front run every move you make, surely?


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## skyQuake

Gringotts Bank said:


> Minwa, whenever someone makes big money like this, I wonder what stops the broker from exploiting the situation?
> 
> A simple program could piggyback or front run every move you make, surely?




The edge would be eroded if more money is thrown at it, noticeable worse fills would raise customer suspicions. Plus the paper trail (in T+3 T&S is there for the world to see).

Also _jail_.


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## minwa

Gringotts Bank said:


> Minwa, whenever someone makes big money like this, I wonder what stops the broker from exploiting the situation?
> 
> A simple program could piggyback or front run every move you make, surely?




I'm not sure..may be a problem if you're with a small broker but IB has millions of customers..and there are much bigger sharks than me for me to start worrying yet. I'm mainly in the ES, it's very liquid and have never had limit orders not fill when price trades there. Good question though, anyone know anything about it ? 




kid hustlr said:


> Balling Minwa - very cool.
> 
> How many round trips a day on average?




About 2. Usually more during Tue & Wed, and less during Mon & Fri. Most of the time only one setup per day and I might take 2 shots at it if first time gets stopped. Another setup only happens about once a week, it's simple and I will share that one later..actually I already shared it in simple form in another thread (it was either in Sam or Modest or Can's futures thread..I forget which)



Modest said:


> What colour, green?





Alpine White ! The blue looks awesome but I'm forecasting it will be too popular because it's the promotional color..gotta be a contrarian




Also inevitably will be adding carbon fire boot lips, rear diffussers, front lips eventually & carbon fibre on white is best !


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## minwa

dryath said:


> Awesome work Minwa! - For an aspiring trader, but not yet successful investor - what are the top books you would recommend for either equities or options (I haven't yet progressed to futures)?
> 
> Can you tell us a little more about your options journey? (Something I dabble in, but have yet to achieve something to write home about).
> 
> Cheers,
> dryath




Kind of hard to recommend trading books on trading as what clicks for me might not for you. But universally I think everyone will benefit from reading the first Market Wizards book, and eventually Brett Steenbarger's psychology books after trading for a while. 

I haven't really read any options books..they're full of maths and theory. I think those can be grasped from plenty of free stuff on the internet and the rest can only be gained from actually trading..

I'll write on my options journey tomorrow or the next few days.


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## Wysiwyg

minwa said:


> Feb was a boring trading month, didn't trade much because of LNY. March was pretty good, not spectacular like Jan but still got close to 6 figures.



10% to 20% return per month is astounding along with a high win rate (possibly over 80%) and high reward to risk ratio. I have always believed this is possible (hence why am still around) but have never even come close. Inspirational stuff.


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## Gringotts Bank

skyQuake said:


> The edge would be eroded if more money is thrown at it, noticeable worse fills would raise customer suspicions. Plus the paper trail (in T+3 T&S is there for the world to see).
> 
> Also _jail_.




The edge wouldn't necessarily erode if the broker is simply following (rather than front running).  Broker might be happy to get in 1 tick higher on every single long trade and make 60k/month rather than 100k.

I can think of an easy way around such a paper trail, but it's probably not wise to mention it.

I guess so long as minwa is getting paid, it's not a problem.  And boy, is he getting paid.


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## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> But universally I think everyone will benefit from reading the first Market Wizards book, and eventually Brett Steenbarger's psychology books after trading for a while.




That's basically my trading "library" - what the top guys do and how to manage psychology.  And yet I'm not ordering a new beema!  Time to read them again, this time I might try reading between the lines as well.


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## Newt

You must be real nightowl Minwa trading the ES.  Do your setups require you to be at the screen for hours on end, or do you have alerts or automation to assist you usually?


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## minwa

Wysiwyg said:


> 10% to 20% return per month is astounding along with a high win rate (possibly over 80%) and high reward to risk ratio. I have always believed this is possible (hence why am still around) but have never even come close. Inspirational stuff.




Nah it's more like 5 to 10% per month usually, I just bragged the good months  . 




That's March. I risk 0.25% per trade and the mean return is 0.59% with win rate 85%. A rather good month though. Longer term for day trading only Sharpe's probably about closer to 6, 75% win. I occasionally do other trades like swing trading futures & options positions in the same account so stats kinda messed. Too lazy to run my own records.  



Gringotts Bank said:


> That's basically my trading "library" - what the top guys do and how to manage psychology.  And yet I'm not ordering a new beema!  Time to read them again, this time I might try reading between the lines as well.




Well don't place TOO MUCH faith in books..they help but you can't "get it" from books..



Newt said:


> You must be real nightowl Minwa trading the ES.  Do your setups require you to be at the screen for hours on end, or do you have alerts or automation to assist you usually?




Yeah always an been night owl, before trading as well. I concentrate better at night. My 2 main setups only occur within a 2 hours window, from CME pits open to an hour after stocks open. After that if no entry I can go sleep (I usually don't though..). If I enter then I can set limit order target and stops and go sleep if I am busy next day and need to wake early (most of time not). Don't have any automation, just alerts on levels and limit orders.


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## skc

minwa said:


> Feb was a boring trading month, didn't trade much because of LNY. March was pretty good, not spectacular like Jan but still got close to 6 figures.




Nice one!



minwa said:


> That's March. I risk 0.25% per trade and the mean return is 0.59% with win rate 85%. A rather good month though. Longer term for day trading only Sharpe's probably about closer to 6, 75% win.




I always thought my stats were pretty solid but this blows me out of the water.



Gringotts Bank said:


> Minwa, whenever someone *makes big money *like this, I wonder what stops the broker from exploiting the situation?




Your definition of big money needs recalibration. Minwa is doing very well... but still very much retail size.



minwa said:


> I also reached a target profit earnings and have just ordered a BMW M2 Pure Editon . It won't be here until towards end of year though..very slow production
> 
> Not sure how financially sensible this decision will be..we will find out I guess. Live & learn.




This will be the most expensive car you'd ever drive. Why? Because...



minwa said:


> Love the power of compound..Always surprise myself every time when totalling $ amount, even though I know my % , it gets easier and easier as your account grows.




Don't forget you need to pay tax (I assume) on your profits. So by the time that happens and you pay for the car, you are hurting your progress in compounding.

Then again... your profits so do as you see fit. And probably not the most expensive car you'd ever drive the way you are going.

Well done.


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## DeepState

What bro rate are you paying?  If short selling, what is the total cost of finance and borrow you are paying?

Well done.


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## Gringotts Bank

skc said:


> Your definition of big money needs recalibration. Minwa is doing very well... but still very much retail size.



Recalibrate me!  Do you know any retail traders making >100k/mo.?


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## DeepState

DeepState said:


> What bro rate are you paying?  If short selling, what is the total cost of finance and borrow you are paying?
> 
> Well done.




Scrap my question.  You trade ES for the most part.


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## minwa

skc said:


> Nice one!
> 
> 
> Don't forget you need to pay tax (I assume) on your profits. So by the time that happens and you pay for the car, you are hurting your progress in compounding.
> 
> Then again... your profits so do as you see fit. And probably not the most expensive car you'd ever drive the way you are going.
> 
> Well done.




Thanks ! Yeah but at least I don't have to pay for the car until delivery (deposit is very small), and tax is only one lump a year unlike PAYG, so I get to use this funds to compound at least for time being.


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## DeepState

I'm not a trader (maybe I should be).   Well done.

Given you've invited questions, can you help with the following?

You are trading a linear instrument.  You are getting very high average returns for a given limit of loss.  I have no idea what these limits look like relative to the gross position size and gross risk.  Yet you are also achieving outsized hit rates.

If you were simply tossing a coin for the month of March alone, the chances of getting 17 trades in profit out of 20 trades is 0.02% or 2 in 10,000.  That's for a single month.  Obviously even more exponentially awesome for a track record extending into years. That's with no stop losses in place.  As soon as stops get added, hit rates decline as the stops get tighter....all else equal.  If Warren Buffett is a 6-sigma event, March alone was a 4-sigma event in just this respect.

The tighter the stops, the lower the hit rate and the higher the R:R (is that how you say it?).  Tighter stops produce positive skews.  Buffett doesn't have stops like this, which makes your 4-sigma more like 6-sigma on a Buffett equivalent measure.  That's for one somewhat vanilla month and would leave Buffett in the dust if considered over three months alone.

High hit rates can be created via sales of put options or strategies which produce similar pay-offs (eg. pair trading, martingale...), but they produce negatively skewed outcomes.

How are you managing to produce statistically freakish hit rates whilst also producing balanced distribution outcomes?  These types of outcomes are viable in arbitrage but you are trading ES on retail proprietary funds presumably without the funds to develop or assemble the hard and software, let alone access to the lines, to produce this.

Enjoy the car.

Maybe you should park outside Portland House in Collins St and get them to stake you for some real money.


----------



## skc

DeepState said:


> If you were simply tossing a coin for the month of March alone, the chances of getting 17 trades in profit out of 20 trades is 0.02% or 2 in 10,000.




His stats showed profitable in 17 out of 20 periods, not trades. He said he averaged 2 trades a day.... so the numbers are still freakish.



DeepState said:


> How are you managing to produce statistically freakish hit rates whilst also producing balanced distribution outcomes?  These types of outcomes are viable in arbitrage but you are trading ES on retail proprietary funds presumably without the funds to develop or assemble the hard and software, let alone access to the lines, to produce this.




I have some vague theories on how it can be possible. I once achieved these numbers over a short period.



skc said:


> I have been trading a system using some MM ASX200 index products for about 4 months. Here are the results.
> 
> No. of trades   1200
> Win rate          87%
> 
> Avg win           3.85 pts
> Avg loss         -2.12 pts
> 
> Largest win     24.4 pts
> Largest loss    -12.7 pts
> 
> The purpose of the post is simply to share my results and to show what is possible when you find an edge in the market. I have to say it was quite a successful system




Let's just say they were not achieved by reading price actions with 87% accuracy!

I do wish Minwa's strategy is far more robust, scalable and sustainable than mine.



Gringotts Bank said:


> Recalibrate me!  Do you know any retail traders making >100k/mo.?




I was listening to an interview of Brett Steenbarger and he mentioned that he worked with an institutional trading desk where the guy with the SMALLEST account was $250m. They are probably trading debt instruments but Minwa is a retail trader.

http://chatwithtraders.com/ep-065-brett-steenbarger/

Here's a guy who's made >$100k/mo.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-panicked-japanese-day-trader-made-34-million


----------



## Modest

minwa can you tell us what your thoughts are on DOM/ladders, whether you use em or not. If you do use it, why? if you don't why not?

I remember reading (I think it was TH) saying the DOMs are very difficult to use these days especially on super liquid indexes like the ES/FESX etc

Thanks


----------



## minwa

@DS, questions are very welcome, but not sure how to fully respond to yours. skc is correct in that they are days, not trades. Majority of my ES trades are closed out before the close so it's still a rather fair representation. I do not keep records myself and exact stats because I think it benefits me NOT to know, so I have no preconceived expectation of any individual trade. A series of trades is more important. 

Never done arbitrage, used to sell options years ago when I only traded options, not really anymore. I only go long or short ES (main strategy), with the expectation to hold for at least 30 minutes to just before noon US time. 

As for the R:R, I buy on down moves and sell on up moves. Only use limit order and wait for price to trade to my level. IMO that way is superior to break out trading, buying on stop orders on highs/shorts on lows - if it fits my intermediate time frame premise (daily chart). 

Hit rate comes from synergy of time & price. I have an expectation of what should occur at what time, if it does and my setup is there I can consider taking it (I'm discretionary.) The same price action is DIFFERENT to me at 10am compared to 2pm. An extra layer of confirmation to the setup is provided by intraday treasuries bond yields. 

I can describe my trading as tracking the big guys to where they will take price to stacks of orders - liquidity - to accumulate before sending price the other way. These guys move the market, they cannot buy on the way up, they have to buy on the way down.

Don't really understand this sigma thing you speak of . I'm not clear on exactly how Buffet made his wealth, a quick wikipedia read says he bought Berkshire in 1962 at $7 and it was worth $1310 in 1979. That's over 1000% return pa, but I have also read somewhere that Buffet's long term return is 25%. I don't think his investing can be compared to our forms of trading stats analysis. 

As for statistics..well I wouldn't pay too much emphasis on them especially in something like trading. Statistics says average 20-40 yrs old male can do 20 something push ups. Well the world record is in the thousands, there'll be MANY in between who can do push ups in the hundreds too. Over the long term I only expect my returns to be half what they were in March.

@skc, it's a shame your system is not scalable, those stats looks awesome. I am not too worried about scalability yet, although I have noticed sometimes it takes a few seconds to fully fill my whole limit order. If my order only gets partially filled and the market moves, at least I have the consolation that I have caught the bottom tick . There's always the big brother spoos, the full sized s&p contract


----------



## minwa

Modest said:


> minwa can you tell us what your thoughts are on DOM/ladders, whether you use em or not. If you do use it, why? if you don't why not?
> 
> I remember reading (I think it was TH) saying the DOMs are very difficult to use these days especially on super liquid indexes like the ES/FESX etc
> 
> Thanks




Not much of an opinion, I don't use them but don't dismiss them either. Haven't studied it enough. I assume it's more for scalping/very short term trading. I take a longer stance and I don't see how it will show anything past a few minutes. A chart prints all the levels I require.


----------



## Modest

minwa said:


> Hit rate comes from synergy of time & price. I have an expectation of what should occur at what time, if it does and my setup is there I can consider taking it (I'm discretionary.) The same price action is DIFFERENT to me at 10am compared to 2pm. An extra layer of confirmation to the setup is provided by intraday treasuries bond yields.




Do you watch all three notes (2yr, 5yr and 10yr) or do you just watch one?



minwa said:


> As for the R:R, *I buy on down moves and sell on up moves*. Only use limit order and wait for price to trade to my level.
> 
> I can describe my trading as tracking the big guys to where they will take price to stacks of orders - liquidity - to *accumulate before sending price the other way*. These guys move the market, *they cannot buy on the way up, they have to buy on the way down.*




This stuff is golden! I have been practising this type of approach to trading since I learned about VSA; what you write about is very similar to what I am trying to do with my disco strategy so it is very motivating to hear someone who is actually making mulla with a similar view of the markets. 


Thanks for your patience minwa.


----------



## Modest

I just realised I was talking about the notes... So you watch 30yr US Treasury Bonds? 


*starts researching*


----------



## DeepState

minwa said:


> @DS, questions are very welcome,




Appreciate your response and openness.  Keen to learn more.

Need to be careful of how to use stats for sure.  However, I would be careful to dismiss a proper use of them in meaningful situations.

Thanks for outlining more of your approach.  It is reversionary.  You are confirming the presence of reversion via reference to the bond market.  Solid concept.  It is a form of market making which definitely can produce high hit rates and positive skew in certain markets.  Usually that is for OTC markets.  Which makes your outcomes very interesting.  Your statement about finding levels to set limits where the big boys absorb liquidity was interesting.  It implies that the really big boys are liquidity providers and you are riding off them.  And yet you do not use DOM, so the limits are set without reference to screen volume.

ES will also arb vs SPX and this brings enormous effective volume into the ES market.  Big insto doesn't need to trade in small contracts.  SPX effective exposure changes vastly exceed the liquidity of the underlying market.  So I find the liquidity argument unusual.  The concept is fine....but on the ES/SPX?  Market makers do well in markets like REITs and Bonds, naturally mean reverting.

Does the ES naturally mean revert at the 30 minute scale?  Absolutely no evidence of this occurs.  Knowledge of the past 30 minute return has no correlation to the next 30 minute returns or any subsequent 30 minute return over the next half of the day (plenty of time for liquidity to clear on a contract like ES.)   The return distribution is much like currency...wide tails, narrow middle. Yes, I checked.

A random trade flicked on and held for a random number of periods will produce a random outcome, growing in size with time held.  

This is what I would expect from a liquid market whose action is driven by crowd-effects.

Given ES and SPX are essentially fully capable of arbitrage, the basic performance of the ES at the time intervals you trade at and longer do not display the characteristics of one with market maker profits to be had...and the liquidity of the SPX is truly huge and any real volume trades get done in that market....how does all this make sense?

Please read the above as curiosity rather than cynical doubt.


----------



## minwa

Modest said:


> I just realised I was talking about the notes... So you watch 30yr US Treasury Bonds?
> 
> 
> *starts researching*




30yr bonds for longer term direction bias, 3yr & 5yr notes yields for intraday. You can add the 10 if you want, but I haven't found any use for it. Accumulation by big boys temporary disrupts correlation is what I look for. Don't get too sucked into it, like I said it's just an extra confirmation that's not always there.


----------



## minwa

DeepState said:


> Appreciate your response and openness.  Keen to learn more.
> 
> Need to be careful of how to use stats for sure.  However, I would be careful to dismiss a proper use of them in meaningful situations.
> 
> Thanks for outlining more of your approach.  It is reversionary.  You are confirming the presence of reversion via reference to the bond market.  Solid concept.  It is a form of market making which definitely can produce high hit rates and positive skew in certain markets.  Usually that is for OTC markets.  Which makes your outcomes very interesting.  Your statement about finding levels to set limits where the big boys absorb liquidity was interesting.  It implies that the really big boys are liquidity providers and you are riding off them.  And yet you do not use DOM, so the limits are set without reference to screen volume.
> 
> ES will also arb vs SPX and this brings enormous effective volume into the ES market.  Big insto doesn't need to trade in small contracts.  SPX effective exposure changes vastly exceed the liquidity of the underlying market.  So I find the liquidity argument unusual.  The concept is fine....but on the ES/SPX?  Market makers do well in markets like REITs and Bonds, naturally mean reverting.
> 
> Does the ES naturally mean revert at the 30 minute scale?  Absolutely no evidence of this occurs.  Knowledge of the past 30 minute return has no correlation to the next 30 minute returns or any subsequent 30 minute return over the next half of the day (plenty of time for liquidity to clear on a contract like ES.)   The return distribution is much like currency...wide tails, narrow middle. Yes, I checked.
> 
> A random trade flicked on and held for a random number of periods will produce a random outcome, growing in size with time held.
> 
> This is what I would expect from a liquid market whose action is driven by crowd-effects.
> 
> Given ES and SPX are essentially fully capable of arbitrage, the basic performance of the ES at the time intervals you trade at and longer do not display the characteristics of one with market maker profits to be had...and the liquidity of the SPX is truly huge and any real volume trades get done in that market....how does all this make sense?
> 
> Please read the above as curiosity rather than cynical doubt.




Sorry most of what said is beyond me . Wish I could truly comprehend them for discussion. 

I am probably wrong in this assumption please correct me but from what I understand you are saying that because the S&Ps are very liquid and arbitraged and therefore the resulting price should be all random ?


----------



## DeepState

minwa said:


> Sorry most of what said is beyond me . Wish I could truly comprehend them for discussion.
> 
> I am probably wrong in this assumption please correct me but from what I understand you are saying that because the S&Ps are very liquid and arbitraged and therefore the resulting price should be all random ?




I can't understand my own stuff 50% of the time so you're way ahead.  

As you succinctly put it, the ES should be super liquid by association with SPX. How does a strategy that seeks to profit from support from big traders supposed to work in this environment.  The market behaves on accordance with what I would have thought.  That makes what you have achieved thoroughly in the WTF territory.  

How can you claim to be trading off liquidity support from the big boys in ES if the larger relative, SPX, is super liquid?  Well, you can claim it...but how does it make sense?

Thanks! Fascinated.


----------



## minwa

DeepState said:


> I can't understand my own stuff 50% of the time so you're way ahead.
> 
> As you succinctly put it, the ES should be super liquid by association with SPX. How does a strategy that seeks to profit from support from big traders supposed to work in this environment.  The market behaves on accordance with what I would have thought.  That makes what you have achieved thoroughly in the WTF territory.
> 
> How can you claim to be trading off liquidity support from the big boys in ES if the larger relative, SPX, is super liquid?  Well, you can claim it...but how does it make sense?
> 
> Thanks! Fascinated.




Thanks, that's much put simpler for me to understand and respond.

I think you may have misinterpreted my comments on liquidity & trading. I trade directional, with the expectation to make at least a few S&P handles in movement per trade. I am not profiting off some SPX/ES tiny flaw caused by liquidity. ES is my instrument of choice, solely because its contract size specs suits me. I could be trading the full size contract and it wouldn't make much of a difference to me. I could be trading SPY too and it would mostly turn out the same, at less leverage of course. I could chart the SPX cash index or SPY ETF, & trade on the ES, and shouldn't make much of a difference, just adjust the point differences.

My comments about liquidity were simply the way I was taught to view the markets, whether they actually happen or not I have no proof. I belief markets are manipulated to trade to penetrate levels where lots of orders are resting - say a recent swing low, where lots of sell stops (consisting of both protective sell stops on existing longs & pending short sells of break out traders) - only one trade/print is required at that level, ALL those pending orders become MARKET ORDERS -> with the big boys buying on the other side. 

Of course in any S&P market these are all synthetic representation of the real buying that is in the underlying STOCKS themselves that move the S&P. Let's assume you're Goldman Sachs and want to purchase a new position into Apple share, we have none existing. 

http://www.goldmansachs.com/gsam/do...rowthstrategyportfolio_700507_20130630_fc.pdf

They had $700bil AUM in 2013 let's assume we now have $1tril and they allocate 13.1% to their large cap equity value fund, let's just simplify it to 10%. Now we're managing $100bil to invest into large cap value equities. We wana put 5%, $5bil into Apple. On Friday Apple traded 26mil shares @ around $110. That's about $2.8 bil worth transacted. We require 5 $bil, so we could we have just bought everything up and be done with in the position in a few days ? No, impossible. There are also hundreds/thousands of other big institutions of similar size who may hold similar interest. It will take a long time to accumulate into these position. If everyone bought at same time with full order the price will explode. They don't want that - they want small bites at as low a price as possible of course. 

Only way to do this is take price LOWER first, get the suckers/retail/sheep/crowd want to get out (and the uninformed speculators wanting to short) - thus providing the liquidity to be soaked up by the big guys. The losers collectively were a form of involuntary liquidity to the big guys. Only way for big money to get a good average price is to accumulate on the way down. No markets go up straight forever - deep pockets cant just pile on as the market rises and rises and be able to get out of their massive position at a higher level. 

That's what I was taught and is my belief on what happens. It has served me well, whether its the truth or not. That's of course on a higher time frame over a longer term basis, but the same manipulation/accumulation process happens on an intraday basis. 

This was Friday's action. A typical accumulation day. Notice I charted the S&P cash index. Could've used ES. Or SPY. Doesn't matter - I simply choose ES as my instrument of choice to trade. I think that's where I sense some confusion from the tone of your post you seem to suggest I found something of an edge in relationship with ES & SPX so I wanted to make that point clear.




Morning open, steep drop - everything looks like a rout, retail starts bailing. Sheep led to slaughter. Shake weak hands out. Wolves eat them up, takes their position. Your retired uncle who punts the market live calls his broker to  get out of longs AND go short at market. Your neighbor who's a plumber who does DIY investing put a pending stop order at previous day's low to protect his long holdings in Apple. All these orders get tripped & bought up by the pros. After they're done - market propels higher. Notice the time where it stalls mid day - just before noon. I mentioned that in the previous post as a target. 



minwa said:


> I only go long or short ES (main strategy), with the expectation to hold for at least 30 minutes to just before noon US time.




Now let's look at where the real buying is going on. ES doesn't go up because S&P futures are being bought up. They go up because stocks (on average to the index) are being bought up.




Apple shares drop on the open, conveniently taking out all the intra day and daily lows of previous 2 days. What do most retail courses & books teach to put your stops on long positions ? Below the most recent swing low or two. Yeah..have fun being involuntary liquidity. No wonder lots of losers complain of the market turning in their favor just after taking their stops out.   

Hopefully that clears some things up. I believe this concept is first introduced by George Douglass Taylor in a old text. I've never read it so I can't recommend it. Linda Raschke & Larry Williams builds on them. Larry buys after price retraces back to the open, a bit late in my opinion. Linda has a lot of fluff material (so does Larry) like indicators which I don't like - but sort through them and there are some good stuff inside.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> Hopefully that clears some things up. I believe this concept is first introduced by George Douglass Taylor in a old text. I've never read it so I can't recommend it. Linda Raschke & Larry Williams builds on them. Larry buys after price retraces back to the open, a bit late in my opinion. Linda has a lot of fluff material (so does Larry) like indicators which I don't like - but sort through them and there are some good stuff inside.




Thanks minwa.  Do you scale into or out of positions?


----------



## minwa

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks minwa.  Do you scale into or out of positions?




One position in, scale out. Scaling will depend on my expectations and where we are via the intermediate time frame price cycle and if I need to sleep. Don't prefer to use automatic trailing stops, but have to resort to it if I have to sleep.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> One position in, scale out. Scaling will depend on my expectations and where we are via the intermediate time frame price cycle and if I need to sleep. Don't prefer to use automatic trailing stops, but have to resort to it if I have to sleep.




ok, thanks again. 

A 6 figure month.  Still getting over that.  :knightrid


----------



## DeepState

minwa said:


> Thanks, that's much put simpler for me to understand and respond.
> 
> ...
> 
> Hopefully that clears some things up.




Thanks again.

I do not think you were arb.  You could not be with what you have to hand.  Others would trade well inside anything you could reach and faster than the thought could come to your head and your order would need to route from Melbourne to CME.

I was arguing that liquidity imbalance in the ES (for a given level of SPX) could not be a source of sustainable profit due to the enormous amount of liquidity available in the contract itself and other relatives, vs the SPX.  The spreads are tight and the volume going through is so deep that market impact through the top of market volume is largely irrelevant excepting options expiration dates in certain circumstances.

You go on to argue that the source of imbalance is the underlying stocks themselves...ie the stocks are manipulated and, thus, the ES is manipulated.

Let's consider this.  The SPX consists of truly huge companies at weights that are very even.  The tenth largest is Wells Fargo, with a 1.25% weight.  Let's say DeepState Investments waltzes in and utterly smashes this stock by 10%.  This would attract regulatory concerns and invite concerns about the solvency of Wells Fargo by market participants wondering what they have missed.  Truly epic.  The impact on the ES is 0.1%.  Nothing.

If big houses are smashing stocks all day long, it happens in two directions.  They don't hold an agreement to move in the same direction on the same minute.  They trade all over the place, all through the day.  They don't smash stocks by 10% unless by accident.

In other words, it could be argued that hitters come in an utterly smash stocks, but the chances of this happening in enough magnitude to hit an entire index is mostly theoretical and certainly not sufficient to generate two trades a day worth a 0.5% move with perfect foresight each day.

Further, this type of trading can happen in less liquid stocks where a trader may develop a sense of inventory on the street.  It can also happen in more liquid situations around things like closing in to option expiration where there is pressure on hedging for strikes which can be seen in the market or otherwise fished out from the dealers.  This is infrequent.  More pertinent, like ES and SPY and SPX are all capable of arb, so is Wells Fargo and a portfolio of stocks that usually trade like it.  Algo looks for this type of thing and restores balance, resisting efforts to smash a stock for no news.  Algo makes up more than 50% of trade an a sizeable chunk of disclosed screen volume.  Algo overwhelms my retired uncle and all his friend's accounts by some margin and some more.

Although stops are a feature, so are undisclosed limits.  Goldman would not hold Wells Fargo at 10% below where it should trade for even an hour.  It would consume an enormous amount of any reasonable volume it would seek to buy in the first place...which it would have to buy back.  It could do it for a few minutes and hope that the sale volume behind it develops strongly enough for it to soak up more than it sold before the price reverted.  In any case, the 'manipulation' does not last long.  

So, even if manipulations occur at the stock level, even epic single stock moves have virtually no impact on the market...and hence ES.  These moves are unlikely to be coordinated enough to meaningfully manipulate an entire index at any time.  Quite certainly not enough to produce a, say, 0.5% shake out move twice a day.

Which leaves me with your outcomes being in the WTF basket.  


Try to estimate what volume of trade would be required to have faked out the SP500 market for the morning session into the most liquid part of its trading day.  That's a definition of epic.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

DeepState said:


> Try to estimate what volume of trade would be required to have faked out the SP500 market for the morning session into the most liquid part of its trading day.  That's a definition of epic.




ES is probably not manipulated, but mean reversion off certain levels is a reasonable approach to trading.

You say you can't find any profitable reversion tendency in the ES in 1/5/10/30/60 min time frames.  When I last tested SPY, I couldn't either, but minwa is using filters to get his high win rate (like time of day and the behaviour of other correlated instruments).  He's also scaling out of positions.  All of these added things can affect profitability enormously.


----------



## minwa

Ah yes, I see what you're conveying. I used GS buying Apple example because it would be easier to understand. It is my belief that the same manipulation occurs across the whole board, equities as a whole as all liquid markets are intercorrelated as funds flow from one to another - hence why I believe watching the yields provides clues to following them. 

1-2 trades average on the days I trade, not each trading day. My broker analyst shows 20 trading periods I was in, in actual it's less because some positions are held overnight and days will still be counted when no new trades were entered so it will be a few days less. I really can't remember top of my head, I'm in the charts almost every single day, I make trades in FX on MT4 also.  




Lots of potential opportunities, more if you use the true open, CME pits. 

You do offer a compelling argument on that manipulation is not possible based on maths. I really have no theory besides I was taught that it does happen on a repeating basis. Technical side of me won over and adopted it.


----------



## CanOz

Hi Minwa, great thread mate. 

Have you noticed the globex (overnight) low to be a relevant reference in these plays?


----------



## DeepState

minwa said:


> It is my belief that the same manipulation occurs across the whole board, equities as a whole as all liquid markets are intercorrelated as funds flow from one to another - hence why I believe watching the yields provides clues to following them.
> 
> You do offer a compelling argument on that manipulation is not possible based on maths. I really have no theory besides I was taught that it does happen on a repeating basis. Technical side of me won over and adopted it.




Sustained manipulation across the entire equity markets in aggregate is not a viable explanation or postulate.  That you acknowledge correlation and flow across these markets argues further against it than my prior focus only on the SP500.

Manipulation of the type you discuss exists at the stock level. It exists in FX for short periods. To argue this on the market aggregate for such sustained periods goes so many levels beyond whatever was required to manipulate LIBOR, Gold Fixes and FX that it truly would require a man in a volcano to coordinate.  The problem with that explanation is we all saw that Ernst Stavro Blofeld was arrested by MI5 in the last Bond movie.

You are fully in the WTF basket.  Awesome.




Gringotts Bank said:


> ES is probably not manipulated, but mean reversion off certain levels is a reasonable approach to trading.
> 
> You say you can't find any profitable reversion tendency in the ES in 1/5/10/30/60 min time frames.  When I last tested SPY, I couldn't either, but minwa is using filters to get his high win rate (like time of day and the behaviour of other correlated instruments).  He's also scaling out of positions.  All of these added things can affect profitability enormously.




If the moves are essentially random, randomly trading them in any way will just skew random results to change hit rate and R:R in a way where the outcome is still zero.  To generate results like has happened over months requires filters or identification of 'certain levels' from the noise of day to day, prima facie, random movement and money management methods with such insight that Minwa might well make fortune telling obsolete.  He is closer to making that fortune....which is kind of what is happening.


As SKC says, I hope that he has found something.  However, whatever it is does not sit well with what he thinks might be driving it (market manipulation).  Whilst someone can take a view of "who cares, it works", I think that is not a good foundation from which to build and refine a process.

Still, of the choice between being lucky and skilled were offered, I'd take lucky all day long.

Thanks Minwa, this has been fun.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

DeepState said:


> If the moves are essentially random, randomly trading them in any way will just skew random results to change hit rate and R:R in a way where the outcome is still zero.  To generate results like has happened over months requires filters or identification of 'certain levels' from the noise of day to day, prima facie, random movement and money management methods with such insight that Minwa might well make fortune telling obsolete.




You've taken what I just said, re-arranged the words and shot it back at me as your own stuff!


----------



## DeepState

Gringotts Bank said:


> You've taken what I just said, re-arranged the words and shot it back at me as your own stuff!




You indicated that his various methods look into the apparently random data and manage to do some magic with it.  Like finding mean reversion at 'certain levels' in a series where mean reversion does not overtly exist under conditions where 'filters' indicate a higher likelihood of producing it.  This, with other magic in terms of scaling or risk management certainly can produce very different outcomes to noise where genuine forecasting power exists. In Minwa's case, very favourable.

My extension to your words is to highlight that the outcomes are so far beyond what is usually manageable in forecasting (obsolete fortune telling) that it might be more accurate to describe it as him making the outcome itself (making that fortune [happen].)  That last bit is my own.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

DeepState said:


> You indicated that his various methods look into the apparently random data and manage to do some magic with it.  Like finding mean reversion at 'certain levels' in a series where mean reversion does not overtly exist under conditions where 'filters' indicate a higher likelihood of producing it.  This, with other magic in terms of scaling or risk management certainly can produce very different outcomes to noise where genuine forecasting power exists. In Minwa's case, very favourable.
> 
> My extension to your words is to highlight that the outcomes are so far beyond what is usually manageable in forecasting (obsolete fortune telling) that it might be more accurate to describe it as him making the outcome itself (making that fortune [happen].)  That last bit is my own.




Fair enough.  One might just as well buy the MACD/stochastic/MA crossover and be just as profitable, so long as the time of day or other filters are setting up properly.

I certainly can't replicate anything like his results using 1min SPY data.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

min, have you run the system on backtesting software?


----------



## Modest

Mr minwa, do you look at any type of volume be it Market Delta, Vol Profile or ordinary Vol Histogram?


----------



## minwa

CanOz said:


> Hi Minwa, great thread mate.
> 
> Have you noticed the globex (overnight) low to be a relevant reference in these plays?




Not particularly, sometimes they are taken out sometimes not, the best lows to be taken out are where price have spent time consolidating for long periods, double bottoms & similar patterns.



Gringotts Bank said:


> min, have you run the system on backtesting software?




Not mechanical so not suitable for a coded backtest. As for a manual backtest I don't see much merit, a fair bit of it lies on the intermediate time frame premise which can't be fairly presented in a manual backtest, as it's 3-dimensional not just ES, I look at other markets to get a feel for the macro. Also knowing what happened in the past doesn't help with the discretionary side of it.



Modest said:


> Mr minwa, do you look at any type of volume be it Market Delta, Vol Profile or ordinary Vol Histogram?




No I don't watch volume at all.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> Not mechanical so not suitable for a coded backtest. As for a manual backtest I don't see much merit, a fair bit of it lies on the intermediate time frame premise which can't be fairly presented in a manual backtest, as it's 3-dimensional not just ES, I look at other markets to get a feel for the macro. Also knowing what happened in the past doesn't help with the discretionary side of it.




Would be interesting to see how much of your performance is due to good intuition + good money psychology versus good system.  

Actually there's a way to test this very question for someone trading a combined mechanical/discretionary approach:  If there's a big difference between paper trading and real trading profits, the differential is caused by poor trading psychology.  If there's not, then either you have a brilliant system, or brilliant psychology, or both.  Can you tell us what difference there as, if any?

Thanks again.


----------



## minwa

Gringotts Bank said:


> Would be interesting to see how much of your performance is due to good intuition + good money psychology versus good system.
> 
> Actually there's a way to test this very question for someone trading a combined mechanical/discretionary approach:  If there's a big difference between paper trading and real trading profits, the differential is caused by poor trading psychology.  If there's not, then either you have a brilliant system, or brilliant psychology, or both.  Can you tell us what difference there as, if any?
> 
> Thanks again.




My demo trading was years ago, and over time I have made changes to the methodology so kind of hard to compare now. From top of my head I do remember when I went real money from profitable demoing I was only around break even, little profit little loss there for a few weeks at least. I'd say the system is brilliant, although I haven't traded through a prolonged bear market like 07/08 so there's still that to come.


----------



## VSntchr

minwa said:


> I'd say the system is brilliant, although I haven't traded through a prolonged bear market like 07/08 so there's still that to come.



Yep. In the same boat as you with that regard. 
Although, market conditions have certainly not remained the same over the past 3 years, so if you've adapted well over those changes then that is some comfort.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> My demo trading was years ago, and over time I have made changes to the methodology so kind of hard to compare now. From top of my head I do remember when I went real money from profitable demoing I was only around break even, little profit little loss there for a few weeks at least. I'd say the system is brilliant, although I haven't traded through a prolonged bear market like 07/08 so there's still that to come.




Great, I accept you probably have a excellent system.  How would you descibe your attitude to money?  For example, how does it feel when you make a losing trade?


----------



## Wysiwyg

minwa said:


> I'd say the system is brilliant, although I haven't traded through a prolonged bear market like 07/08 so there's still that to come.



It seems to me you are in the zone of confidence and belief that athletes get into when they are winning with what to the majority appears ease. You are where all traders want to be but will never get to because they have mental and real baggage, Many people will never make it and most of all will never make it as well as you have. It can only be that way or you would not be.


----------



## castelldefels007

I love it how you feel to be on a high with your trading. – I had in my trading live a few time where I felt like bragging. Every time I did my equity curve went down. Enjoy as long as it lasts.


----------



## minwa

Gringotts Bank said:


> Great, I accept you probably have a excellent system.  How would you descibe your attitude to money?  For example, how does it feel when you make a losing trade?




I still feel annoyed at controlled losses, angry if loss is "uncontrolled" like, a human error in placing orders which results in larger loss than anticipated. I do not think I will ever reach the stage of "not caring" at all of losses of my money. I personally do not believe that is possible, at least not for me, if I don't disregard the desire for material things - if that happens I wouldn't be trading anyway.

Whenever I am in losing streak, I compare it to my days of options selling losses, and these losses feel like nothing. A blessing in disguise were those large losses, how they now enable me to feel much better about small losses. I would joke about it to my trader friend, things like "time to line up at centrelink tommorrow.."


----------



## CanOz

minwa said:


> I still feel annoyed at controlled losses, angry if loss is "uncontrolled" like, a human error in placing orders which results in larger loss than anticipated. I do not think I will ever reach the stage of "not caring" at all of losses of my money. I personally do not believe that is possible, at least not for me, if I don't disregard the desire for material things - if that happens I wouldn't be trading anyway.
> 
> Whenever I am in losing streak, I compare it to my days of options selling losses, and these losses feel like nothing. A blessing in disguise were those large losses, how they now enable me to feel much better about small losses. I would joke about it to my trader friend, things like "time to line up at centrelink tommorrow.."




I like that Minwa, I could never learn to love my losses either. I try and treat them like an expense, but that doesn't help much. I still like it when I'm right, that sometimes leads to over confidence.


----------



## Craton

@minwa. Thanks for sharing, great thread.

Speaking from a less active trading perspective as am mainly a passive investor but I do like big, short term gains that just beg and indeed, must be realised.

As hard as it is to leave the emotional side out of it, my personal take on losses is that I look at any loss simply as a cost of doing business and as tax minimization for realised short and long term tax considerations, not always possible but that's how I roll with losses.

Of course any loss will be scrutinized to the nth degree to discern why and to learn from. 

No one likes to loss money, getting worked up about it not only clouds the brain but won't bring the loss back. No use crying of spilt milk so to speak.

Again, great thread. Now go and make your first seven digit month!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Just re-read this entire thread to catch up from my initial questions, to which has been a great read. 

A few things I'd like to ask: 

1. You mentioned way back in your reply to my first questions that you saved up and self-funded a 10K account which is when you started to see success, before your family + relatives funded you with an awesome 250k and said away you go, but back to the 10K where you started to get some success, what do you call "some success" at this point? Were you relatively profitable, what had you turned the 10K into(if you don't mind me asking). Reason I ask is I'm just curious to see if you could do this well with just that 10K account. There's been many a time I wish I had a wealthy or well saved up family that could kick me off with 250K which would have drastically improved my results and psychology. 

2. Your method of trading, you mentioned you had a mentor who helped a lot(another super rare thing to get/find along with a 250K kickstarter!) how much of your method now is his input and your own doing? Where do you get the levels you look at, and do you have targets mind? Like you showed us those charts where it flattens out at midday, but that's all well and good to point out after the fact, do you have some kind of target in mind when its live? What gets you in and out in the moment? 

Great stuff! Nice car too!


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Just re-read this entire thread to catch up from my initial questions, to which has been a great read.
> 
> A few things I'd like to ask:
> 
> 1. You mentioned way back in your reply to my first questions that you saved up and self-funded a 10K account which is when you started to see success, before your family + relatives funded you with an awesome 250k and said away you go, but back to the 10K where you started to get some success, what do you call "some success" at this point? Were you relatively profitable, what had you turned the 10K into(if you don't mind me asking). Reason I ask is I'm just curious to see if you could do this well with just that 10K account. There's been many a time I wish I had a wealthy or well saved up family that could kick me off with 250K which would have drastically improved my results and psychology.
> 
> 2. Your method of trading, you mentioned you had a mentor who helped a lot(another super rare thing to get/find along with a 250K kickstarter!) how much of your method now is his input and your own doing? Where do you get the levels you look at, and do you have targets mind? Like you showed us those charts where it flattens out at midday, but that's all well and good to point out after the fact, do you have some kind of target in mind when its live? What gets you in and out in the moment?
> 
> Great stuff! Nice car too!




1. It was about a few months of pretty consistent results, no consecutive losing weeks. I was risking way more % wise back then, 1-3% as opposed to current 0.25%. It was like 40 something % appreciation on account. Honestly I am not sure how I would do with just $10k. I probably would've kept working for a few years and adding capital in and eventually probably go for a prop firm. Who knows if I would've still made it..probably yes but many many years behind of course. Good luck to you..probably best to get results then go for a prop firm.

2. I'd say about 85% is what he taught me (again, a lot of it is not "his" stuff..he simply put the good stuff together from various authors and mentors, and 15% some of my own tweaks. My levels are based based on price pattern which seeks where institutional orders are most stacked. Same principle as support and resistance, except it's not based on swing high or lows like the traditional TA sup/res. To me those are liquidity pockets to be violated. My first target is between 11-12, at which point I will look at where price has traded to and look to the left to find consolidations, this represents temporary fair value and is where price can be likely to trade to again. Morning swing is usually easy. Second target depends on day of week/higher time frame and whether you want to take it overnight. Then if feeling greedy have a small position left and just trail it.

My other setup I'm pretty sure you've seen it..damn my memory I posted it in either yours or Modest's thread..Both based off same principle..buying declines/selling rallies, just differing method of entry. 




Good example just last night..jogs your memory ? What signals the potential top after the rally off the open ?

I'm talking hindsight yes but it's a real trade I did. These trades gives crazy R:R but they don't happen often, once a week, twice if market is kind.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Thanks for the answers minwa, wasn't sure if you'd seen them or not, actually seems like ASF is pretty dead in recent times, especially as far as futures traders goes, we've all vanished somewhere   so I appreciate it 

You've had a perfect environment to succeed at trading with a mentor who was what seems to be a decent trader AND willing to help(rare!) and the funding and made the most of it, excellent stuff


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> My levels are based based on price pattern which seeks where institutional orders are most stacked. Same principle as support and resistance, except it's not based on swing high or lows like the traditional TA sup/res. To me those are liquidity pockets to be violated. My first target is between 11-12, at which point I will look at where price has traded to and look to the left to find consolidations, this represents temporary fair value and is where price can be likely to trade to again.




Almost sounding like the open range breakout, in reverse.  Anyone else thinking the same?


----------



## Modest

minwa said:


> View attachment 66245
> 
> 
> What signals the potential top after the rally off the open ?






I see that all three have a climatic last push on high vol before turning over; 

YM Puts in a double top, lower high
NQ Has three attempts to go higher and fails (head and shoulders) 
ES puts in a double top, lower high 

Before all that ZB was putting in a bottom (that middle bar being the lowest is of interest how it got rejected immediately)


What do you see?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa or modest, can you explain the chart a bit please?

Are YM and NQ on different time frames to the bar chart?  Is the main bar chart the ES?

Thanks.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> minwa or modest, can you explain the chart a bit please?
> 
> Are YM and NQ on different time frames to the bar chart?  Is the main bar chart the ES?
> 
> Thanks.




The main chart is ZB, the US 30 year treasury bond. The other charts are 1m comparison studies in line on close format just to illustrate the correlation. You see how the bonds consolidated then started their rally before the equity indices started their sell-off....


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> The main chart is ZB, the US 30 year treasury bond. The other charts are 1m comparison studies in line on close format just to illustrate the correlation. You see how the bonds consolidated then started their rally before the equity indices started their sell-off....




Thanks Can.  Is the point here that because the bonds were flat that this was an indicator that the indices would get sold off?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks Can.  Is the point here that because the bonds were flat that this was an indicator that the indices would get sold off?




Yeah I think so, while the ES was having its morning rally, the bonds didn't push lower(usually negatively correlated) then actually started to rise in which the correlation kicks back in and ES comes off again till midday when it flattens out and farts around until the close I assume. 

Something like that minwa? I take it that trade isn't always in play as that correlation can not always be that clear cut? It's interesting that you don't use volume either considering your method of trade is to go with the big players/smart money, usually volume is a key component of that, yet you seem to just use more of a time of day type pattern and correlations? 

Wish I was where you were at


----------



## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I think so, while the ES was having its morning rally, the bonds didn't push lower(usually negatively correlated) then actually started to rise in which the correlation kicks back in and ES comes off again till midday when it flattens out and farts around until the close I assume.
> 
> Something like that minwa? I take it that trade isn't always in play as that correlation can not always be that clear cut? It's interesting that you don't use volume either considering your method of trade is to go with the big players/smart money, usually volume is a key component of that, yet you seem to just use more of a time of day type pattern and correlations?
> 
> Wish I was where you were at




Cheers.

I never thought there was such a thing as leading indicators, but I can see how they could exist.  The mavens will always lead with their actions, creating a gap as the followers fall in line.


----------



## Modest

Yesterday was interesting.. the Bund and FESX were in unison so it was a bit more difficult to use the bonds for confirmation. But even though they were moving together most of the time, at some points they would diverge briefly and that provided some good opportunity to make a trade on the index. 

Although I witnessed the above I did not trade it because the divergence did not occur at a point where my setup was forming. 

Also important to note although I saw these as opportunities because of the size of the sample it could have easily been random so DYOR


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Modest said:


> Yesterday was interesting.. the Bund and FESX were in unison so it was a bit more difficult to use the bonds for confirmation. But even though they were moving together most of the time, at some points they would diverge briefly and that provided some good opportunity to make a trade on the index.
> 
> Although I witnessed the above I did not trade it because the divergence did not occur at a point where my setup was forming.
> 
> Also important to note although I saw these as opportunities because of the size of the sample it could have easily been random so DYOR




Yeah I've only ever watched these types of correlations on Eurex as well, in my case with the Dax and Bund etc. and yeah I agree, definitely doesn't seem to be a go-to trade idea every time that's for sure, sometimes it goes in and out(as do all correlations I guess, that's what makes the opportunities). But thought I'd confirm that with minwa, it might be a different story on CME, never really watched it as much as Eurex, might be more of a consistent pattern. 

But I guess that's why screen time/experience is the greatest tool of all, because you will KNOW when something is out of whack and to jump on it. 

....or we have it all wrong and he's just referring to the time of day for why things happened when they did on that chart


----------



## minwa

Haha I thought the theories would run wild with ZB, it's not important here. I just had to use a base chart to get the trio on the chart. There is correlation with bonds, but I use the note's yields for intraday. That's a can of worms I don't want to open. Focus on just the index futures for now



Modest said:


> YM Puts in a double top, lower high
> NQ Has three attempts to go higher and fails (head and shoulders)
> ES puts in a double top, lower high




Rally after the open - NQ puts in higher high, while other 2 puts in lower high.

Now look at last night's (Thursday) action.




What happened here ? I prefer to chart them individually to see the highs/lows clearer but untrained eye may prefer the 3 lines on same chart.

Also to put the move into perspective, this is a 5 minute chart showing the overnight globex action. Ignore the blue boxes for now, come back to that later.




Price rallies out of consolidation to new intranight highs, bulls cheer and go long on break outs. Stop orders will stack below the swing low/double bottom from these break out players and also the guys who bought lower near the intranight low will move their stop up. Big boys engineers it down to those orders to absorb those sell stops of the involuntary liquidity to take their positions for the rally.


----------



## minwa

Last ego brag post I promise :. I'll post losses and failed set ups next time. Just a reminder I am cherry picking good setups & good periods. I AM good, but not as damn good as most of you probably fantasize me to be from my posts, and I don't have to be - you only have to be slightly better than average in the market to extract money and manage risk & equity over time to build wealth.


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> It's interesting that you don't use volume either considering your method of trade is to go with the big players/smart money, usually volume is a key component of that, yet you seem to just use more of a time of day type pattern and correlations?




Interesting you state that "volume is key component of big players/smart money following". Lots of authors/gurus/mentors/salesman use the word "smart money" - in reality they don't get close to it, simply use the buzzword in their marketing. Personally haven't found a use for volume.



Gringotts Bank said:


> I never thought there was such a thing as leading indicators, but I can see how they could exist.  The mavens will always lead with their actions, creating a gap as the followers fall in line.




Price action leads. My belief is price are drawn to liquidity. Can be argued but it's a fact to me, nothing will convince me otherwise.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> But I guess that's why screen time/experience is the greatest tool of all, because you will KNOW when something is out of whack and to jump on it.




Agree with the screen time/experience, but only IF you've found what works. Of course the dilemma here is you will need time to find what works for you but when you discover it, it will pop out at you again and again.


----------



## Modest

This stuff is GOLDEN! Thanks for your detailed reply minwa!


----------



## minwa

Morning move easy, take profits before noon. Nailing the move after midday is something I require work on. I am probably taking a few years of my lifespan with all these nights up, but its worth it doing what you love & it pays.


----------



## minwa

Looking for a bottom in cattles intermediate term


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Do you see this often minwa, I've just been checking out the three amigos on a chart tonight, blue line is NQ, other two are ES/YM, but just now the NQ is seeming to be doing it's own thing, or do you not put much weight on that because it's not as closely correlated as ES and YM? Or is a long on NQ glaring me in the face?


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Do you see this often minwa, I've just been checking out the three amigos on a chart tonight, blue line is NQ, other two are ES/YM, but just now the NQ is seeming to be doing it's own thing, or do you not put much weight on that because it's not as closely correlated as ES and YM? Or is a long on NQ glaring me in the face?
> 
> View attachment 66316




No it doesn't happen too often, they should be closely correlated most of the time. I only trade the S&Ps don't do those plays where I expect laggard to catch the other. The move was earlier today, probably due to the oil news. If market is down more than normal pre market then use the CME open outcry open as the open and look to buy below that. It's there, but I missed it today - not very clear.


----------



## Modest

NQ completely diverging from ES.. You trading this thing?


----------



## hamli

Modest said:


> NQ completely diverging from ES.. You trading this thing?




Due to oil.


----------



## Modest

I thought maybe they changed NQ to follow Chinese stocks and not nasdaq :


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trader Minwa has position sizing completely understood. Most of the time, if not very lucky, small accounts blow up because additional risk is taken to actually get a meaningful reward. While with a large bankroll when strictly managed that risk to reward is so much sweeter. Large or small, gotta manage that risk and be patient with the process.


----------



## kid hustlr

Where's the monthly update Minwa I'm in need of some motivation


----------



## minwa

I'll update this week. 

http://traderbroadcast.opentrader.c..._source=oap&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=e04

Saw a decent free advertising webinar for Opentrader. Lots of things clicked with my style - institutional orders/buying after big fall/zones/HTF context. Just turn it off when he starts selling at the end. 

Can't recommend buying the course yet, but they seem to know what they are talking about.


----------



## minwa

kid hustlr said:


> Where's the monthly update Minwa I'm in need of some motivation







Year to date 38% for 4 months and a week, thanks for Jan. Had a 3 weeks break during Lunar New Years in Feb so sneaked in a week from May. Only need 12% next 8 months to achieve my yearly target. I can see how greed has really kicked up a notch this year after Jan which caused prolonged draw downs and less stable equity curve..rather depressing. But end result profit overall is higher and on target so all's well I guess.


----------



## minwa

minwa said:


> Looking for a bottom in cattles intermediate term







Love fleshing out these moves Larry Williams style.


----------



## minwa

Change of topic to general everyday finance..something I don't have much experience in. I wasn't sure if I could get finance for the car being solely income from trading & no other major assets, basically besides my car my net worth is pretty much my trading account. I was going to try get a loan closer to delivery date/payment and if that wasn't possible just pay it in cash. If I keep up the returns, I can outperform the interest paid so it makes sense to take the loan, if possible.

Recently discovered leasing..and it allows even less monthly repayments, about 500 less per month - allowing less withdrawal of trading capital which makes more sense..assuming a higher return from trading is achieved than the extra expenses involved of course. 

Although I've already signed contract, I've spoken with the salesman and with this vehicle being in rather high demand I can reorganize the deal with minimal or nil penalties.

Anyone have any opinions and maybe things I've missed ? Am I taking on too much risk by leveraging on finance as well ? Also anyone with any ideas on taking loans with rather large variable differences in tax returns with no employer ?


----------



## Roller_1

How have you been going over the last few months Minwa?


----------



## minwa

Roller_1 said:


> How have you been going over the last few months Minwa?




Half year update after the month closes. Bittersweet happy I guess.


----------



## minwa

Anyone like options stuff ??  If you haven't read this post of my on options from last year have a read before continuing on this post.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=30260&page=2&p=884486&viewfull=1#post884486

This fine Brexit mess provides the opportunity I talked about.  As this was a KNOWN SCHEDULED event, volatility crush is what I was looking for, aka shorting options. Human emotions overreact, you just sell the premium and cover at discount.  Thursday saw the market take the S&P going into yearly highs - liquidity/stops seeking maneuver providing the fuel for the sell off.

Large change in put to call ratio alerts something is about to goon the options market.
View attachment 67251


Then Monday opens with market down quite a bit BUT VIX OPENS DOWN @ 24.38, down from Fri's close of 25.76. Big boys have inevitably left tracks of their activity. Now just have to go to the charts to find clues where it may occur..remember - they are too big to hide their activity, price itself is the ultimate indicator.

View attachment 67252


Institutions operate the same levels. As everything is about liquidity...why is that highlighted bar significant ? It's a day where a "mopping up" of retail stops occurred, taking out both previous days's highs and lows. "Engulfing" bar if you will - not the candlestick formation crap. This marks an important level going forward as that's where a lot of big boy activity was done on. 

View attachment 67253


We dip into the zone on Monday off a slide, now look at intraday time. What time do I normally look at for first target off the morning trade ? Just before midday. Combine everything...price dipping into a time where a pause is expected then going sideways, in a higher level big boy level with the activity of options and VIX..giving you a high probability volatility crush. Price can consolidate intraday here a bit before the next move, positions are being cleared and shuffled around at this level, from the last time they were here (the highlighted bar in March.

View attachment 67254


Maximum vol crush at the money weekly straddle. IB log says "BOT", I "bought" a "short straddle"..being net short overall.

View attachment 67255


Fun day(night)..only downside was I couldn't watch the season finale of game of thrones throughout the night , which also means I couldn't browse social media as I don't do hard stops in options like you can easily do in the futures contract itself..



	

		
			
		

		
	
 (taking gif ques from Modest)


----------



## CanOz

Can't seem to access the attachments minwa, can you post again?


----------



## minwa

Hmm that's odd. Can't edit post anymore so double post:

Anyone like options stuff ??  If you haven't read this post of my on options from last year have a read before continuing on this post.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...l=1#post884486

This fine Brexit mess provides the opportunity I talked about. As this was a KNOWN SCHEDULED event, volatility crush is what I was looking for, aka shorting options. Human emotions overreact, you just sell the premium and cover at discount. Thursday saw the market take the S&P going into yearly highs - liquidity/stops seeking maneuver providing the fuel for the sell off.

Large change in put to call ratio alerts something is about to goon the options market.


Then Monday opens with market down quite a bit BUT VIX OPENS DOWN @ 24.38, down from Fri's close of 25.76. Big boys have inevitably left tracks of their activity. Now just have to go to the charts to find clues where it may occur..remember - they are too big to hide their activity, price itself is the ultimate indicator.




Institutions operate the same levels. As everything is about liquidity...why is that highlighted bar significant ? It's a day where a "mopping up" of retail stops occurred, taking out both previous days's highs and lows. "Engulfing" bar if you will - not the candlestick formation crap. This marks an important level going forward as that's where a lot of big boy activity was done on. 




We dip into the zone on Monday off a slide, now look at intraday time. What time do I normally look at for first target off the morning trade ? Just before midday. Combine everything...price dipping into a time where a pause is expected then going sideways, in a higher level big boy level with the activity of options and VIX..giving you a high probability volatility crush. Price can consolidate intraday here a bit before the next move, positions are being cleared and shuffled around at this level, from the last time they were here (the highlighted bar in March.




Maximum vol crush at the money weekly straddle. IB log says "BOT", I "bought" a "short straddle"..being net short overall.




Fun day(night)..only downside was I couldn't watch the season finale of game of thrones throughout the night , which also means I couldn't browse social media as I don't do hard stops in options like you can easily do in the futures contract itself..

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=67256


----------



## CanOz

minwa said:


> Hmm that's odd. Can't edit post anymore so double post:
> 
> Anyone like options stuff ??  If you haven't read this post of my on options from last year have a read before continuing on this post.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...l=1#post884486
> 
> This fine Brexit mess provides the opportunity I talked about. As this was a KNOWN SCHEDULED event, volatility crush is what I was looking for, aka shorting options. Human emotions overreact, you just sell the premium and cover at discount. Thursday saw the market take the S&P going into yearly highs - liquidity/stops seeking maneuver providing the fuel for the sell off.
> 
> Large change in put to call ratio alerts something is about to goon the options market.
> View attachment 67259
> 
> Then Monday opens with market down quite a bit BUT VIX OPENS DOWN @ 24.38, down from Fri's close of 25.76. Big boys have inevitably left tracks of their activity. Now just have to go to the charts to find clues where it may occur..remember - they are too big to hide their activity, price itself is the ultimate indicator.
> 
> View attachment 67260
> 
> 
> Institutions operate the same levels. As everything is about liquidity...why is that highlighted bar significant ? It's a day where a "mopping up" of retail stops occurred, taking out both previous days's highs and lows. "Engulfing" bar if you will - not the candlestick formation crap. This marks an important level going forward as that's where a lot of big boy activity was done on.
> 
> View attachment 67261
> 
> 
> We dip into the zone on Monday off a slide, now look at intraday time. What time do I normally look at for first target off the morning trade ? Just before midday. Combine everything...price dipping into a time where a pause is expected then going sideways, in a higher level big boy level with the activity of options and VIX..giving you a high probability volatility crush. Price can consolidate intraday here a bit before the next move, positions are being cleared and shuffled around at this level, from the last time they were here (the highlighted bar in March.
> 
> View attachment 67262
> 
> 
> Maximum vol crush at the money weekly straddle. IB log says "BOT", I "bought" a "short straddle"..being net short overall.
> 
> View attachment 67263
> 
> 
> Fun day(night)..only downside was I couldn't watch the season finale of game of thrones throughout the night , which also means I couldn't browse social media as I don't do hard stops in options like you can easily do in the futures contract itself..
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=67256




Thanks for the re post minwa.


----------



## Modest

Thanks minwa


----------



## skc

Great work Minwa... look forward to your half year bittersweet update...

P.S. I hope the bitter part is just that you have a big tax bill.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Great work Minwa... look forward to your half year bittersweet update...
> 
> P.S. I hope the bitter part is just that you have a big tax bill.




Or maybe he had to wait longer for the m3! 

BTW that link to the options tutorial doesn't work....


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Or maybe he had to wait longer for the m3!
> 
> BTW that link to the options tutorial doesn't work....




Or he forgot he has to pay tax when he ordered that m3?


----------



## minwa

CanOz said:


> Or maybe he had to wait longer for the m3!
> 
> BTW that link to the options tutorial doesn't work....




Probably messed up when I copied to seccond post, this should work

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=30260&page=2&p=884486&viewfull=1#post884486


----------



## minwa

skc said:


> Great work Minwa... look forward to your half year bittersweet update...
> 
> P.S. I hope the bitter part is just that you have a big tax bill.




Thanks..that tax too when it comes ! I always try console myself that the AUDUSD conversions will cover a big chunk of the tax..so what I am earning is close to net.

I'll update early just closed the half year out and going for a holiday so won't be trading.




Happy at the end result, on track to smash previous years. Also had a great June which marks my second 6 figure month. 

Now comes the bitter part: May draw down. It may not look like much on a 6 month curve but whilst in it I was pretty discouraged. As primarily a day trader, a whole month of draw down is kind of depressing. This actually shows my immaturity in trading as I did not take it as well psychologically as I'd like to. I didn't do anything stupid/out of rules as a result, but still it did impact me emotionally. If we were chatting about trading in April and end May you would have definitely noticed a difference in my confidence. 

Although I recovered out of it pretty fantastically, it is still not the smoothness I would've liked. I much more preferred first quarter's smoothness than second quarter's, even if it meant earning less return overall (which it didn't but even if it did I still would've preferred it).

Hope everyone's done well. I will try not to care much what happens rest of year, my yearly target is reached and I think we are in for some crazy times in the markets remainder of year.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, inspirational stuff Minwa, enjoy the holidays!


----------



## Modest

You're the man minwa! Enjoy your much deserved break!


----------



## kid hustlr

I read that as 40% return in 6 months? Is that correct?

6 figure month is pretty ballin - nice work.


----------



## VSntchr

minwa said:


> Thanks..that tax too when it comes ! I always try console myself that the AUDUSD conversions will cover a big chunk of the tax..so what I am earning is close to net.



That's a lovely buffer, however no consolation for us trading AUD markets 



minwa said:


> Happy at the end result, on track to smash previous years. Also had a great June which marks my second 6 figure month.



Congratulations. I don't think its coincidence how once the first milestone is reached, they seem to reoccur much more often.



minwa said:


> Although I recovered out of it pretty fantastically, it is still not the smoothness I would've liked. I much more preferred first quarter's smoothness than second quarter's, even if it meant earning less return overall (which it didn't but even if it did I still would've preferred it).



I battle the same thing. Every time I go into drawdown the questions start arising - then when I pull out of it my confidence gets a bit too strong...balance is the key, although not easy to achieve. I do also think that a slight bit of overconfidence can help you make the most of a good run when your in the "zone". 
With all that said, Ill take a smaller but smooth equity curve, over a bigger but wild equity curve all day. Much easier to scale over future periods.


----------



## Roller_1

Thanks Minwa - great work!


----------



## minwa

kid hustlr said:


> I read that as 40% return in 6 months? Is that correct?




46.31% with largest 8.58% DD in 6 months yeah.


----------



## DeepState

Truly stunning results.  Congratulations.


----------



## cynic

Yep! I am envious!

Well done minwa!


----------



## Triathlete

minwa said:


> 46.31% with largest 8.58% DD in 6 months yeah.




Awesome result minwa..!!


----------



## minwa

Thanks guys.

I've decided to focus on FX for a period of time. I probably won't do or only very little ES trades. Always loved the potential in FX but never had the time to trade it properly as I was always up late trading ES and usually miss out  FX's London session. Figured out I don't have enough energy/concentration to trade both ES and FX as they have different session times. Getting old. 

I've almost reached year's target in return so I can take as long as I want "off"(I will be much busier !!). We are also entering the silly season Jul-Oct. I am determined to nail FX as I want to transition into that fully in the future. I will do some longer term commodity trades as they set up for lower returns but I am investing this time to tackle FX which hopefully rewards me greatly in the future.


----------



## CanOz

Minwa, good to hear you're switching to fx!


----------



## 5oclock

MINWA good work!!! It is inspirational to read your posts and I hope you keep posting .


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

minwa said:


> Thanks guys.
> 
> I've decided to focus on FX for a period of time. I probably won't do or only very little ES trades. Always loved the potential in FX but never had the time to trade it properly as I was always up late trading ES and usually miss out  FX's London session. Figured out I don't have enough energy/concentration to trade both ES and FX as they have different session times. Getting old.
> 
> I've almost reached year's target in return so I can take as long as I want "off"(I will be much busier !!). We are also entering the silly season Jul-Oct. I am determined to nail FX as I want to transition into that fully in the future. I will do some longer term commodity trades as they set up for lower returns but I am investing this time to tackle FX which hopefully rewards me greatly in the future.




I don't know whether to be encouraged or depressed, looking at my little pathetic account(although making 700% does sound more impressive  .

Interesting you're wanting to change to FX, how will you trade it? Does it still have the patterns around certain times of day like how you seem to trade the ES? Don't suppose that savvy mentor of yours would want to help me either?  

Very nicely done minwa 

What happened on the car front? You still getting that BMW?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> Thanks guys.
> 
> I've decided to focus on FX for a period of time. I probably won't do or only very little ES trades. Always loved the potential in FX but never had the time to trade it properly as I was always up late trading ES and usually miss out  FX's London session. Figured out I don't have enough energy/concentration to trade both ES and FX as they have different session times. Getting old.
> 
> I've almost reached year's target in return so I can take as long as I want "off"(I will be much busier !!). We are also entering the silly season Jul-Oct. I am determined to nail FX as I want to transition into that fully in the future. I will do some longer term commodity trades as they set up for lower returns but I am investing this time to tackle FX which hopefully rewards me greatly in the future.




I guess you've looked at automating your ES trades?  Almost everything can be coded.

Since you have the midas factor, I'm sure your FX stuff will work, but I would have thought automation of a successful _existing _approach would be easier.


----------



## skc

minwa said:


> I've decided to focus on FX for a period of time. I probably won't do or only very little ES trades. Always loved the potential in FX but never had the time to trade it properly as I was always up late trading ES and usually miss out  FX's London session. Figured out I don't have enough energy/concentration to trade both ES and FX as they have different session times. Getting old.
> 
> I've almost reached year's target in return so I can take as long as I want "off"(I will be much busier !!). We are also entering the silly season Jul-Oct. I am determined to nail FX as I want to transition into that fully in the future. I will do some longer term commodity trades as they set up for lower returns but I am investing this time to tackle FX which hopefully rewards me greatly in the future.




I guess many here will be surprised how you seem to give up on a pretty successful and lucrative ES strategy.  I for one will milk and trade and grow it as much as possible... you just never know how long your edge will hold and how much of it is transferable across markets.

But anyhow... good on you for meeting your year's target with 5 months to spare and so you can do something different.

All the best.


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I don't know whether to be encouraged or depressed, looking at my little pathetic account(although making 700% does sound more impressive  .
> 
> Interesting you're wanting to change to FX, how will you trade it? Does it still have the patterns around certain times of day like how you seem to trade the ES? Don't suppose that savvy mentor of yours would want to help me either?
> 
> Very nicely done minwa
> 
> What happened on the car front? You still getting that BMW?




I'll be trading price action, same underlying principle as what I'm doing in ES, of course with nuances tailored for the FX market. But mostly the same - price is liquidity seeking. Time of day patterns exists in all freely traded liquid markets, I have some idea just have to nail down specifics for the FX market. My mentors retired from mentoring, for now at least. 

I have decided to switch to finance/lease if I could, so just waiting for the tax return to see if I could/how much I could obtain.


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I don't know whether to be encouraged or depressed, looking at my little pathetic account(although making 700% does sound more impressive  .
> 
> Interesting you're wanting to change to FX, how will you trade it? Does it still have the patterns around certain times of day like how you seem to trade the ES? Don't suppose that savvy mentor of yours would want to help me either?
> 
> Very nicely done minwa
> 
> What happened on the car front? You still getting that BMW?






Gringotts Bank said:


> I guess you've looked at automating your ES trades?  Almost everything can be coded.
> 
> Since you have the midas factor, I'm sure your FX stuff will work, but I would have thought automation of a successful _existing _approach would be easier.




I am mostly discretionary I don't see how it can be automated, with levels drawn from different time frames. I can't even explain well on text. I also believe automated will produce inferior results - taking every set up just because they fit the rule is flawed thinking. Not all setups are equal, the superior way is cherry picking which can only be done in real time as you analyse the whole context of where price action is. 

But then there is also the argument that inferior results (higher DD, lower return) can be accepted for automation, as long as it's profitable and tolerable - who cares about the worse *profitable* performance. If you gave a bot that has worse stats but still profitable and I am still comfortable with it, would I trade it? Hell yeah. PM me if you got one.  

I don't see how I can automate my ES trading personally. Which is also why I want to do FX.

Lol no midas here, I've got a massive history of many failed trading methods over many years. You are all seeing the fruits only, I think I painted a too pretty picture of the work involved in planting the roots in this thread.


----------



## minwa

skc said:


> I guess many here will be surprised how you seem to give up on a pretty successful and lucrative ES strategy.  I for one will milk and trade and grow it as much as possible... you just never know how long your edge will hold and how much of it is transferable across markets.
> 
> But anyhow... good on you for meeting your year's target with 5 months to spare and so you can do something different.
> 
> All the best.




I am not too worried about edge not holding out..many years of studying I am convinced that price action will not change. Same model has been used to extract funds from the masses since the beginning of trading. People come and go, human behavior remains the same.

S&P is also in new highs, not my preferred location for trading. I like to trade inside ranges, with price on the left side to provide insights for upside targets. It is also a season of the year where volatility tends to come in.


----------



## Roller_1

minwa said:


> I'll be trading price action, same underlying principle as what I'm doing in ES, of course with nuances tailored for the FX market. But mostly the same - price is liquidity seeking. Time of day patterns exists in all freely traded liquid markets, I have some idea just have to nail down specifics for the FX market. My mentors retired from mentoring, for now at least.
> .




I was just reading some interviews in the book "The New Market Wizards" yesterday and one of the traders was talking about his FX trading in the 70s and 80s. Much of what he was saying sounds similar to your style Minwa about price and liquidity, this is a guy who is trading 3 billion dollar positions back then so its not pennies. So im sure your style will translate to FX nicely!


----------



## cynic

Roller_1 said:


> I was just reading some interviews in the book "The New Market Wizards" yesterday and one of the traders was talking about his FX trading in the 70s and 80s. Much of what he was saying sounds similar to your style Minwa about price and liquidity, this is a guy who is trading 3 billion dollar positions back then so its not pennies. So im sure your style will translate to FX nicely!




Technology has introduced some creative new challenges to the profitable trading of some of the less transparent markets.

Did you encounter references to "Last Look"  or  "the cartel" in your reading?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

cynic said:


> Technology has introduced some creative new challenges to the profitable trading of some of the less transparent markets.
> 
> Did you encounter references to "Last Look"  or  "the cartel" in your reading?




Please explain.


----------



## Roller_1

cynic said:


> Technology has introduced some creative new challenges to the profitable trading of some of the less transparent markets.
> 
> Did you encounter references to "Last Look"  or  "the cartel" in your reading?




mmm don't think, but there was mention of some front running from the banks.

Yes, please explain??

I have heard of many previously profitable traders from before this era (2005-now) who haven't been able to adjust for a variety of reasons  and now don't trade


----------



## cynic

Roller_1 said:


> mmm don't think, but there was mention of some front running from the banks.
> 
> Yes, please explain??
> 
> I have heard of many previously profitable traders from before this era (2005-now) who haven't been able to adjust for a variety of reasons  and now don't trade




A little bit more reading for your enjoyment:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/forexs-last-look-practice-gets-curbed-1432768404

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-22/ex-ubs-trader-in-cartel-said-to-help-u-s-in-currency-probe

Edit: additional article link

http://marketsmedia.com/last-look-to-remain-hot-topic-in-fx/


----------



## Roller_1

cynic said:


> A little bit more reading for your enjoyment:
> 
> http://www.wsj.com/articles/forexs-last-look-practice-gets-curbed-1432768404
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-22/ex-ubs-trader-in-cartel-said-to-help-u-s-in-currency-probe
> 
> Edit: additional article link
> 
> http://marketsmedia.com/last-look-to-remain-hot-topic-in-fx/




I couldn't read the first link but the new market wizards book was written in 1992 before all this wiz bang chatroom stuff. haha

No doubt there is dodgy guys out there where ever there's big money to be made there are dodgy people


----------



## cynic

Roller_1 said:


> I couldn't read the first link but the new market wizards book was written in 1992 before all this wiz bang chatroom stuff. haha
> 
> No doubt there is dodgy guys out there where ever there's big money to be made there are dodgy people




Too true!

Apologies for that first link. It is possiblee to read the full article when it is accessed via a google search.


----------



## Newt

minwa said:


> S&P is also in new highs, not my preferred location for trading. I like to trade inside ranges, with price on the left side to provide insights for upside targets. It is also a season of the year where volatility tends to come in.




Amen.  Just knowing when NOT to trade is a skill that takes most people a long time to figure out.


----------



## Wysiwyg

minwa said:


> Thanks..that tax too when it comes ! I always try console myself that the *AUDUSD conversions will cover a big chunk of the tax..so what I am earning is close to net*.



I can't see how that is true. When you convert from USD to AUD, that whole amount (minus trading expenses) is taxable. If your earnings in USD are 400k then converted to AUD is 532k. Tax on AUD 532k is  



> Based on the information you have provided in this tool, it is estimated that *you will have to pay an amount of $227,967.00 tax*.




of course trading expenses will reduce your taxable income but the tax bill will be taking a sizable chunk of your account balance. 

$180,001 and over  =	$54,547 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000


----------



## McLovin

Wysiwyg said:


> I can't see how that is true. When you convert from USD to AUD, that whole amount (minus trading expenses) is taxable. If your earnings in USD are 400k then converted to AUD is 532k. Tax on AUD 532k is




They're taxable when earnt, not when converted back to AUD. Also any fx gain/loss will be taxable/deductible.





Wysiwyg said:


> of course trading expenses will reduce your taxable income but the tax bill will be taking a sizable chunk of your account balance.
> 
> $180,001 and over  =	$54,547 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000




If minwa keeps up his trading success as he has thus far he probably needs a better structure than trading as an individual.

The Cook Islands is where it's at these days if you want ultimate asset protection. 

A few overseas in a low/no tax jurisdiction would do wonderful things for compounding. BMWs are also cheaper.


----------



## Wysiwyg

McLovin said:


> They're taxable when earnt, not when converted back to AUD. Also any fx gain/loss will be taxable/deductible.



Yes but isn't that conversion to AUD made at the time of  sale? When is the conversion made?


----------



## McLovin

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes but isn't that conversion to AUD made at the time of  sale? When is the conversion made?




Yes, sorry I misread what you were saying.


----------



## Ves

McLovin said:


> They're taxable when earnt, not when converted back to AUD. Also any fx gain/loss will be taxable/deductible.




Probably not relevant in this case (as we're talking some serious coin and also CGT assets),  but don't forget:

https://www.ato.gov.au/business/For...50000balanceelection#The250000balanceelection

The $250,000 balance election is pretty useful.  Say you've left money in your trading account after you've sold some assets and the only gains from that point on have come from foreign exchange movements whilst it sat idle.

Might be a few hoops to jump through.  But worth a read.


----------



## McLovin

Ves said:


> Probably not relevant in this case (as we're talking some serious coin and also CGT assets),  but don't forget:
> 
> https://www.ato.gov.au/business/For...50000balanceelection#The250000balanceelection
> 
> The $250,000 balance election is pretty useful.  Say you've left money in your trading account after you've sold some assets and the only gains from that point on have come from foreign exchange movements whilst it sat idle.
> 
> Might be a few hoops to jump through.  But worth a read.




Interesting! I didn't know about that. Can you have it apply up to the first $250k, or is it that if your account is over $250k then the account is ineligible?


----------



## Ves

McLovin said:


> Interesting! I didn't know about that. Can you have it apply up to the first $250k, or is it that if your account is over $250k then the account is ineligible?



It sounds like it's the latter.

But it doesn't seem to say that you cannot make an election for an account you'd keep under $250k,    and then have other accounts that are not stated on the election to keep any amounts above the threshold.

In all honesty,   I've only ever used this for a client once.   And that was clear cut,  they just had a small foreign bank account that was set up originally to bank dividends from a small foreign share holding. Occasionally the amounts were transferred back to Australian bank accounts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> I am not too worried about edge not holding out..many years of studying I am convinced that price action will not change. Same model has been used to extract funds from the masses since the beginning of trading. People come and go, human behavior remains the same.
> 
> S&P is also in new highs, not my preferred location for trading. I like to trade inside ranges, with price on the left side to provide insights for upside targets. It is also a season of the year where volatility tends to come in.




Any updates, minwa?


----------



## minwa

Gringotts Bank said:


> Any updates, minwa?




Haven't been in the ES front. Got the vol pop expected this time of year. Treasuries looking wild at the moment so still waiting for the dust to settle as things are still going on behind the smoke & mirrors of the election.




Just been busy studying the currency markets.


----------



## minwa

Inspired by Sam to do an update(it's also year end)..I know he's looking for 5-10 years but this is all I got. Hopefully inspire him or anyone else a bit back about trading. Here's 3 years since inception. 




Monthly analysis so units are in months. ie. 28 positive months, 9 negative months. (can't ever seem to shake the bloody 75:25 ratio..an average month will mostly likely have around that 15:5 days ratio too..still chasing that golden Pareto 80:20)

Returns slowed down since July..much more work needed in improving FX.




Finally about to complete withdrawing initial deposits (which was varying, over time - not a single lump sum from inception..so note that it is a cumulative tally of in/out - I did not turn 1 into 392 lol) out, last 1.4k to go before everything in the account will be from pure profits. Bloody tax and living expenses eating into the compound. Got lucky on exchange rate - averaged in just a bit under parity and now at 0.75. Wasn't planned, nice to have it go my favor no need to hedge and extra bonus. 

Happy new year.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

minwa said:


> Inspired by Sam to do an update(it's also year end)..I know he's looking for 5-10 years but this is all I got. Hopefully inspire him or anyone else a bit back about trading. Here's 3 years since inception.
> 
> View attachment 69104
> 
> 
> Monthly analysis so units are in months. ie. 28 positive months, 9 negative months. (can't ever seem to shake the bloody 75:25 ratio..an average month will mostly likely have around that 15:5 days ratio too..still chasing that golden Pareto 80:20)
> 
> Returns slowed down since July..much more work needed in improving FX.
> 
> View attachment 69103
> 
> 
> Finally about to complete withdrawing initial deposits (which was varying, over time - not a single lump sum from inception..so note that it is a cumulative tally of in/out - I did not turn 1 into 392 lol) out, last 1.4k to go before everything in the account will be from pure profits. Bloody tax and living expenses eating into the compound. Got lucky on exchange rate - averaged in just a bit under parity and now at 0.75. Wasn't planned, nice to have it go my favor no need to hedge and extra bonus.
> 
> Happy new year.




Your posts do inspire me, but there's just one thing(or two) that bugs me, you basically had the best possible help in trading imaginable as you were gifted 300k by family and friends was it? To start trading. Also you had a mentor that knew what he was doing, two incredible blessings in your trading career. Not that it's anything against you and you've clearly taken it all on board and done well from it I think(those are really confusing account stats, so what have you made, from beginning with the funding to now in profit terms, that 392k in 3 years?). But if there's ever going to be a dream start that will help someone "make" it, it's those 2 things. I'm 100% sure I could still be going in 3 years well and truly if someone lent me 300k to trade with. 

But it is awesome to see and keep it up


----------



## minwa

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Your posts do inspire me, but there's just one thing(or two) that bugs me, you basically had the best possible help in trading imaginable as you were gifted 300k by family and friends was it? To start trading. Also you had a mentor that knew what he was doing, two incredible blessings in your trading career. Not that it's anything against you and you've clearly taken it all on board and done well from it I think(those are really confusing account stats, so what have you made, from beginning with the funding to now in profit terms, that 392k in 3 years?). But if there's ever going to be a dream start that will help someone "make" it, it's those 2 things. I'm 100% sure I could still be going in 3 years well and truly if someone lent me 300k to trade with.
> 
> But it is awesome to see and keep it up




I do agree I had a the best start (but the funny thing is it came after a long time of "failure" period..like the universe knows exactly when you are ready and gift you with resources) but that is something that both can be obtained via a prop firm for you ? Capital + mentoring. I learnt and traded on a few thousand $ saved from PT job for years too before acquiring a record to get funding. If you're confident you can do it why not prove it on a smaller account first ? If you already have..have you taken it to a prop firm ?

Which part about the stats is confusing ? It's a cumulative total, time weighted, not a breakdown of every single time with deposits/withdraws. Simple answer for dollar amount for 2 accounts combined is just over 1m, if marked to market to AUD.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> Simple answer for dollar amount for 2 accounts combined is just over 1m, if marked to market to AUD.




Pffwar!  Nice.

Anything more to say on "the universe" would be appreciated.


----------



## CanOz

Stellar results minwa


----------



## minwa

Gringotts Bank said:


> Pffwar!  Nice.
> 
> Anything more to say on "the universe" would be appreciated.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0Muo5Luwx0

Just those self help wealth psychology stuff lol. 



CanOz said:


> Stellar results minwa




Thank you sir.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

minwa said:


> Just those self help wealth psychology stuff lol.




OMG, you're into weird stuff like LoA and psychology. Ewwww, I'm scared.  (sarcasm)


----------



## tech/a

minwa said:


> I do agree I had a the best start (but the funny thing is it came after a long time of "failure" period..like the universe knows exactly when you are ready and gift you with resources) but that is something that both can be obtained via a prop firm for you ? Capital + mentoring. I learnt and traded on a few thousand $ saved from PT job for years too before acquiring a record to get funding. If you're confident you can do it why not prove it on a smaller account first ? If you already have..have you taken it to a prop firm ?
> 
> Which part about the stats is confusing ? It's a cumulative total, time weighted, not a breakdown of every single time with deposits/withdraws. Simple answer for dollar amount for 2 accounts combined is just over 1m, if marked to market to AUD.




Minwa

Am I getting this right.

From a $300k loan 3 years ago you currently $1 mill marked to market now after paying back the $300 k
Paid tax and lived?


----------



## Modest

On to more serious business fellas ... 

Minwa, Custom plates on the BMW or standard issue


----------



## minwa

tech/a said:


> Minwa
> 
> Am I getting this right.
> 
> From a $300k loan 3 years ago you currently $1 mill marked to market now after paying back the $300 k
> Paid tax and lived?




No - I did not pay back the loan. 1m aud is total profits - large chunk of it still in account, others withdrawn for expense & tax. I have 0 dependents.  Loan like I said is not one lump sum from beginning..Over time a few different amounts plus many withdrawals at different time so obviously if you just take it and multiply by rate of return it does not add up. I let IB do it's job to get the time weighted return.

Think of it as if you invest $x into a fund for a few months then you add more, $y. After more time do you multiply the return since $x invested to $x + $y ? No you don't - your $y is not in there for the whole duration. They have to be all readjusted each deposit/withdraws. Add to all that that I have 2 accounts. So if you want the maths to add up, you have unit adjust every single deposit/withdraw separately and calculate the return on those.

Tax is private I do not wish to discuss any specifics.


----------



## minwa

Modest said:


> On to more serious business fellas ...
> 
> Minwa, Custom plates on the BMW or standard issue







Slimline. Excuse the house..I prefer my anonymity. 

Lol didn't wana bring up car as trading + flashy car just has a certain reputation attached to it  . Long story short changed things around as I got a chance to drive it before delivery and could NOT stand the auto rev matching on down gearing in the M2. Easily solved as it's in high demand.  Swapped into a used M3. It's a beast but I think still prefer something more raw, working on that perhaps. Working from home & sometimes overseas it doesn't get driven much..


----------



## tech/a

minwa said:


> Tax is private I do not wish to discuss any specifics.




No it was more a wrapping my head around 3 yrs a million profit 
Paying Tax and living. In a market like we have had on 300K
I can only *echo* CanOz--Stellar--No---Supa Nova 
My puny head sees 100% plus over 3 yrs year on year.

Mind you ducks quacks don't echo!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

minwa said:


> Slimline. Excuse the house..I prefer my anonymity.
> 
> Lol didn't wana bring up car as trading + flashy car just has a certain reputation attached to it  . Long story short changed things around as I got a chance to drive it before delivery and could NOT stand the auto rev matching on down gearing in the M2. Easily solved as it's in high demand.  Swapped into a used M3. It's a beast but I think still prefer something more raw, working on that perhaps. Working from home & sometimes overseas it doesn't get driven much..




Okay thanks, now I'm depressed lol


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## Gringotts Bank

Think more broadly tech\a.


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## minwa

tech/a said:


> No it was more a wrapping my head around 3 yrs a million profit
> Paying Tax and living. In a market like we have had on 300K
> I can only *echo* CanOz--Stellar--No---Supa Nova
> My puny head sees 100% plus over 3 yrs year on year.
> 
> Mind you ducks quacks don't echo!




Family members. Different accounts. 180k+ bracket not even reached first 2 years. 

Pretty sure I mentioned rent free earlier in the thread. Parents overseas - I just upkeep the house. 

Daytrading - what type of market we have not a big impact like other forms.


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## ReXXar

Congratulations on succeeding in your day trading.  I first started out as day trader, was doing OK but went bust as I didn't have a stop loss and did the worst thing any trader can do - add to your losing positions.  I know way too many day traders who failed (including myself) so I'm always happy to hear success stories.


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## Modest




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## Wysiwyg

The play button doesn't work?


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## CanOz

Wysiwyg said:


> The play button doesn't work?





ROTFLMAO


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## scholesy

What a great thread! Thank you minwa for sharing, very inspirational!

100% agree about markets hunt for liquidity (stops,limit orders) to identiy fair value areas to trade (high volume areas/VPOC). There is no such manipulation as no one entity can control big markets like FX and ES.

I had a similar setup that I tried on Dax but couldn't work it successfully as the excursions were quite large. I would look for liquidity pockets above/below swing highs/lows, wait for a wide range bar and take a trade in the opposite direction. Maybe I should try it with the ES?

 Interesting that you mention Linda Raschke and Larry Williams. I have read some of their materials and read the book "Long-term secrets to short-term trading"...but they don't really mention anything about liquidity. Can you point me to something specific please?

Also, please update us. Would like to see how your trading (especially in the FX space) has progressed. Cheers.


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## Trendnomics

Trendnomics said:


> "_There are old traders, there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders_" - Ed Seykota
> 
> +
> 
> "_The markets are the best ego regulator_" - Unknown​




Minwa you blown up yet?


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