# AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas



## nioka (21 December 2006)

There doesn't appear to be a thread specefic to AUT. It gets plenty of mention associated with ADI through "Sugarloaf" but it does have other interests so I think it needs an identity of it's own.
The company has the same percentage share in sugarloaf as ADI with the sp usually at a discount and I have done OK switching back and forth between the two.
 AUT is currently subject to a trading halt pending an announcement not associated with current activities. This could mean raising funds needed for the development of sugarloaf. This could mean a discounted rights issue or it may be a placement , discounted, to a financial institution.One could raise the price the other could lower it?
 Which ever way it goes the long term future of AUT is tied to sugarloaf to a degree but they have another well Nth Bellridge getting close to it's target.


----------



## stereo21 (21 December 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> There doesn't appear to be a thread specefic to AUT. It gets plenty of mention associated with ADI through "Sugarloaf" but it does have other interests so I think it needs an identity of it's own.
> The company has the same percentage share in sugarloaf as ADI with the sp usually at a discount and I have done OK switching back and forth between the two.
> AUT is currently subject to a trading halt pending an announcement not associated with current activities. This could mean raising funds needed for the development of sugarloaf. This could mean a discounted rights issue or it may be a placement , discounted, to a financial institution.One could raise the price the other could lower it?
> Which ever way it goes the long term future of AUT is tied to sugarloaf to a degree but they have another well Nth Bellridge getting close to it's target.



This was from another site posted yesterday "just completed a capital raising @53cps".  
IMO a placement makes sense as they need to raise money for SL.


----------



## nioka (21 December 2006)

stereo21 said:
			
		

> This was from another site posted yesterday "just completed a capital raising @53cps".
> IMO a placement makes sense as they need to raise money for SL.



That price is a good discount on the last sale at 60c. An offer to existing shareholders at that price would have been appreciated.


----------



## nioka (21 December 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> That price is a good discount on the last sale at 60c. An offer to existing shareholders at that price would have been appreciated.



Existing shareholders are also being offered up to $5000 in shares at the placement price. They have also announced 2 more oil and gas projects in Texas.


----------



## nioka (12 January 2007)

Good news from AUT regarding the drilling of High Island-1 well, offshore Texas Gulf. Strong gas shows in the target "6400ft" over 200ft. The economic significance of this will not be known until wireline logs are run at the total depth. The well is planned to have a total depth of 10,088ft. 
AUT also announced that a work over rig has commenced operations on the North Bellridge 26-2H well to prepare the well for reservoir stimulation
The results from Sugarloaf will soon be out. Add this to the other 2 wells which appear to be possible producers and it should mean an interesting time for AUT


----------



## nioka (17 January 2007)

More good news from the High Island 1 well. Good gas shows again from 9651ft for 140ft. The well has reached total depth. Bad weather is holding up wire line logging.
 There have been 2 good gas shows and indications of oil according to my interpretation of the report. And I believe the well will add considerably to the share value. 
 AUT has a 30% interest in Sugarloaf also and because it has not had the SP increase as has ADI there should be room for good  gains on this one.


----------



## Dukey (17 January 2007)

Does look nice nioka.  
... from what I've seen - AUT releases regarding Sugarloaf state they have a 20% interest. But its still plenty.

High Island looking good and completely ignored by the market??? 
Maybe everyones still hungover from New year or something.
Gotta think seriously about this one now!!! What to sell ...what to sell...


----------



## nioka (18 January 2007)

Dukey said:
			
		

> Does look nice nioka.
> ... from what I've seen - AUT releases regarding Sugarloaf state they have a 20% interest. But its still plenty.
> 
> High Island looking good and completely ignored by the market???
> ...



Yes 20% in sugarloaf, Same as ADI. 30% in High Island.


----------



## nioka (5 February 2007)

AUT seems in a little trouble today. I had just written out a cheque for the issue at 53c when I looked at a detailed quote to see them selling at 53c.I put an order in for 10,000 at 51c thinking that was better than paying 53c for new shares. Didn't expect to get them but had them within minutes. They are now selling for less with almost no buyers. What,s happening here ,has Sugarloaf fizzed? The new issue looks to be in trouble.


----------



## nioka (14 February 2007)

AUT and ADI both on Preopen this morning ?????


----------



## nioka (1 March 2007)

AUT has had good results with the High Island well, located offshore Texas, and now says that it hopes to be in production late 07. The joint venture is currently evaluating opportunities to fast track devellopment. Plans currently under consideration would see the acquisition of an existing platform, drilling a second development well and starting production near the end of 07.
The expected production rate is expected to be in excess of 20 million cubic feet a day from the first 2 wells. The 3rd development well would be drilled and if successful would add to production.
Added to the probable successs of sugarloaf, High Island is icing on the cake and should make AUT a buy at the current discounted price.


----------



## nioka (22 March 2007)

Has AUT sold out High Island to GRL or has it traded it's interest in High Island for an interest in GRL and seats on the GRL board. GRL has gone into a trading halt today. AUT has an effective 28% interest in GRL at this stage so it will be interesting to see the reason for the trading halt and the benefits of the recent transfer of the High Island interests.


----------



## nioka (26 June 2007)

There are posts daily on the ADI thread in relation to the Sugarloaf well and the potential it has for the ADI SP. AUT has the same percentage interest in Sugarloaf yet it never seems to get a mention. In addition AUT is the major shareholder in GRL after trading it's interest in the successful High Island well for a major stake in GRL with 2 seats on the board including chairman. High Island is nearing production. 
GRL now have purchased a working interest in the POMPANO gas field, also in the Gulf of Mexico. GRL have also announced a merger with Elixir Petroleum.
Updates on Sugarloaf are available on the ADI thread. There is much speculation regarding the Sugarloaf potential to dramatically increase the ADI SP. The same potential is there for AUT and AUT has a back up value in it's holdings in Gawler.
Over the past few months I have been able to trade ADI for AUT by selling 2 ADI and buying 3 AUT. At todays prices AUT has held up against ADI and they are now equal in price. I can see no reason to revert to ADI.
( I'm not always right.)


----------



## sam76 (10 July 2007)

Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (AUT) is an oil and gas exploration and development company with the activities concentrated on the Gulf of Mexico coast region of the USA. The company was previously operating a formal menswear rental business but changed its principal activities in April 2005.


WTF????


----------



## jtb (10 July 2007)

sam76 said:


> Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (AUT) is an oil and gas exploration and development company with the activities concentrated on the Gulf of Mexico coast region of the USA. The company was previously operating a formal menswear rental business but changed its principal activities in April 2005.
> 
> 
> WTF????




I think it was 'Tony Barlow' menswear wasn't it?.
So what do you reckon, you buying in 

EXR or gawler may be a better bet


----------



## nioka (10 July 2007)

sam76 said:


> Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (AUT) is an oil and gas exploration and development company with the activities concentrated on the Gulf of Mexico coast region of the USA. The company was previously operating a formal menswear rental business but changed its principal activities in April 2005.
> 
> 
> WTF????




Which one's the monkey? Oil and gas or mens wear. It makes no difference to me. They put their money in too and have a 20% interest in Sugarloaf plus other interests. I'm in deep ( deep for me anyway) and intend to stay until Sugarloaf is finished one way or another.


----------



## nioka (11 July 2007)

Finally some good news for AUT with the first positive information on Sugarloaf for some time now. Sugarloaf was originally described as Elephant territory and in may yet prove to be that way. Plans are now under way for the drilling of Sugarloaf 2. even before the testing of Sugarloaf is complete.
Aurora also announced that lease arrangements for the Longhorn and Ipenama project areas are essentially complete both these are in the Sugarloaf areas and that and that the Delores 1 well has commenced production.
 The next few months should be interesting for shareholders as, in addition to Sugarloaf AUT's interest in Gawler should increase in value as the High Island venture nears production.


----------



## nioka (12 July 2007)

Aurora up 5c so far today on very small volume. This indicates to me that the holders of AUT are not desperate to get out. Having held through the testing times ( SP wise) it appears that current holders are now satisfied to wait  to "cash in" after the drilling of Sugarloaf 2.
It has been afrustrating wait but it now looks as if is paying off.


----------



## Agentm (18 July 2007)

just curious about the trading halt??

has anyone heard anything about what they may be in a halt for..???


----------



## nioka (18 July 2007)

Agentm said:


> just curious about the trading halt??
> 
> has anyone heard anything about what they may be in a halt for..???




It's interesting. My guess is finance raising in some form. Only a guess but based on the facts that they have a lot of irons in the fire at the moment. Some of these will require a lot of funding.
Ipenama, Aurora can earn 80% by fundingleasing costs and the cost of the first well to production.
Longhorn, a 50% interest by funding leasing costs and the cost of the first well to production.
There is also West Black Lake which will commence production shortly and NorthBellridge and Flour Bluff. 
On the strength of these facts I sold the last of my ADI and used the funds to get more AUT ( at 52c) following the announcement on26th June.
Go Sugarloaf and Ipenama and Longhorn will follow.
Just my guess. DYOR.


----------



## Agentm (23 July 2007)

nioka..

i see they have delayed again at AUT and suspended..

this is becoming an interesting affair,  EKA has a day before it needs to do the same, or maybe a dual announcement?

interesting days ahead here..


----------



## nioka (23 July 2007)

Yes. They seem to be too slow coming up with the information. I doubt if it will be bad news. Getting information out of ADI & AUT is like pulling hens teeth. We get more info through ASF than ASX. This sure as hell has been a frustrating time with them, Hopefully the end result will justify the wait.


----------



## nioka (31 July 2007)

A non-renounounceable rights issue will allow elegible shareholders the opportunity to acquire additional shares at 53c per share on the basis of 1 new share for each 10 held on the record date of August 10.
The funds raised will be applied to financing " drilling, infrastructure, sesmic and land aquisition activities on the company's US oil and gas Projects and for general working capital".
Aurora Exec. chairman Jon Stewart also said: "We expect that shareholders will have the benefit of further results from operations ahead of making the decision of taking up their rights.
 Remedial cementation of the Sugarloaf well has been completed without operational problems and tubing is presently being withdrawn in preperation for fracture stimulation and test program. The fracture stimulation of Sugarloaf 1 is presently expected to begin by mid August, subject to equipment availability.
The fracture stimulation of our North Bellridge 26-2H well is also expected to start in mid August. 
The drilling of our Sugarloaf 2 horizontal well is presently expected to commence towards the end of August." 
 The rights issue at 53c adds value to the existing value  with AUT SP today at 66.5c.


----------



## nioka (16 August 2007)

History is repeating itself here. The rights issue price of 53c looked good a few days ago but once again I will be able to increase my holding at a better price. Last time there was an issue at 53c I bought at 51c instead.
 There should be no reason for the price to have dropped so much even in the present share market climate as Aut is on the verge of making exciting announcements if the drilling results are as per expectations. 45c has to be a bargain.


----------



## sam76 (21 August 2007)

WOW there are sellers under 50 cents now.

We are so close to announcements and people are selling down???? 

I'm hoping they don't know something we should know.

EKAO's are looking cheap as well.


----------



## Lucky_Country (21 August 2007)

Maybe selling and buying into ADI as it has got more upside on a sucessfull discovery.
News must be close fracing I hope should have started all will be revealed tommorow on the weekly announcements.


----------



## nioka (21 August 2007)

It is hard to keep the faith in this one. With the new issue at 53c I can't see them getting too many applications. The money I had aside for that I put into AGM at 50c a few days ago, they are now 58.5c and I don't have enough faith to sell the AGM and buy the AUT. I'll sit on the AUT I have though and hope.


----------



## wallave (21 August 2007)

Lucky_Country...
I think that testing is due to start in the last week of Aug, possibly with the Hurriacne over that way, may be pushed back a few extra days also. 
I'll be surprised if we see any news before the end of next week.. So still at least 2 weeks away is my guess. (love to be wrong though)


----------



## sam76 (28 August 2007)

For those considering bailing....


Aurora Oil & Gas has a 20% interest in the large Sugarloaf Prospect, which has the potential to host several trillion cubic feet of gas.

The Sugarloaf Prospect is a world class exploration prospect. It is a robust four-way dip closure covering about 80 square kilometres at approximately 5,300m depth, which makes it one of the largest undrilled structures in the onshore US. The primary target reservoirs are thick sands of the Cretaceous age Hosston Formation which are major producers elsewhere in the Gulf Coast region.

The initial well to test this structure was successfully drilled to Total Depth (“TD”) of 20,896 feet (6,371 metres) in late 2006. As at 20 February 2007, the well participants are undertaking testing of the primary target and preparing for the commencement of fracture stimulation and flow testing operations.

Overlying the Sugarloaf Hosston formation growth structure, are several shallower targets that are considered prospective. These shallower targets, which include the Wilcox, Austin Chalk, Edwards and Sligo formations, will be evaluated as part of the initial farm-in well.

There have been many successful deep gas wells in the Gulf Coast region, where initial flow rates of up to 80 million cubic feet per day (average daily rate over one month) have been obtained from wells to comparable depths. 

The Sugarloaf Prospect is unusual among the large number of onshore USA hydrocarbon prospects in that it is a giant prospect with multi-trillion cubic feet gas potential. Most similar prospects in onshore US were drilled long ago, even at this depth. The application of modern processing of 1970s and 1980s seismic revealed the presence of the major Sugarloaf anticline which was not evident from the original processing.
 The Sugarloaf Prospect
The Sugarloaf prospect was identified by local Houston-based operator/explorer Texas Crude Energy Inc. during seismic reprocessing directed at shallower horizons. The reprocessed data showed that below the currently productive Wilcox, Edwards and Sligo Formations, there is a large “text-book” example of a growth fault in lower Cretaceous-aged clastic rocks setting up the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect.

The Sugarloaf prospect is surrounded by several shallower oil and gas fields within a 25 km radius. Most of these fields were discovered in the 1950s and 60s and contain total reserves of some 5 trillion cubic feet (“TCF”) gas and 100 million barrels (“mmbbls”) oil. The fields are a combination of structural and stratigraphic play types predominantly in carbonate rocks at shallower levels than the Sugarloaf prospect.

The Sugarloaf prospect is a large (80 sq km / 20,000 acre), deep (5,200m+) well developed, four way dip closure associated with an early Cretaceous growth fault in the prolific Gulf Coast Basin of Texas. The total depth of the farm-in well was approximately 6,400m (21,000 ft). The well is targeting a reservoir comprising an expanded section of Hosston Formation prograding delta wedge sandstones. The geological structure at Sugarloaf is clearly defined on seismic data, and the presence of source rock and seal is considered to be low risk.

The main technical risk to the Sugarloaf prospect is the preservation of porosity at a depth of greater than 5,200m (17,000 ft). At these depths in most basins of the world, reservoir quality porosity and permeability is usually too low to be productive. However, in the Gulf Coast Basin of the USA (especially Texas and Louisiana) there is abundant production from fields at these depths. Published data indicates that in excess of 21 TCF of gas has been produced to date from approximately 350 “deep” onshore fields in the Gulf Coast Basin area at an average well depth


----------



## nioka (5 September 2007)

Aurora presentation at the Good Oil Conference is certainly worth a read. Available today on the AUT company announcements. It looks like the interests in the Sugarkane are going to shadow the Sugarloaf results and with AUT's other interests in the area should boost the value of the shares to show healthy returns for it's followers. ADI holders are suggesting $5 as a value for ADI what then is the value of AUT. I'm not going to suggest a price but I suggest this is a good week to hold. To back that up I am buying again today. The offer at 53c for the current capital raising is good value with today's price.


----------



## Broadside (5 September 2007)

hi nioka, the shares are trading XE, does this mean they are ex the entitlement to subscribe at 53c?  anyway it looks like good value with that acreage and Sugarkane looking great for all partners.  Shares haven't run yet but I expect it will be happen in the near future when instos flick the switch and these companies come to the attention of more brokers.....seem to fly under the radar and then you see stocks like GDN fly...go figure


----------



## nioka (5 September 2007)

Broadside said:


> hi nioka, the shares are trading XE, does this mean they are ex the entitlement to subscribe at 53c?  anyway it looks like good value with that acreage and Sugarkane looking great for all partners.  Shares haven't run yet but I expect it will be happen in the near future when instos flick the switch and these companies come to the attention of more brokers.....seem to fly under the radar and then you see stocks like GDN fly...go figure




Yes, the shares now are ex entitlement which was a 1 for 10. We have until November 1st to apply for our allocation. Last time they were offered at 53c the price fell and I bought below that price instead of taking up the offer. I can't see that happening this time. By then some test results should be out and it seems, from the companies announcement today, that they will be good. I haven't spent the profit yet but I need a new boat so I live in hope that AUT will pay for it.


----------



## resourceboom (5 September 2007)

bought a couple today after the announcement, hoping longhorn and ipanema are good, as AUT have plenty of net acreage over the 3 areas.

.... nice addition to my ADI and EKAO !!


----------



## nioka (12 September 2007)

Aurora has advised that the fraccing of Sugarloaf 1 commenced yesterday and that the mobilisation of the drilling rig to the Kennedy#1H well site is scheduled for this week.
 This is now the time when we will see if the wait has been worthwhile.  Patience should finally be rewarded for those who have held on and rewards could be there for those prepared to invest now. DYOR.


----------



## nioka (22 September 2007)

When researching AUT it is important to differentiate between Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd ( ASX code AUT) and Aurora Oil and Gas Inc ( American stock exchange code AOG). I have noticed posts on some forums which confuse the two. 
 AUT is currently going through exciting times which are capable of making this a valuable company and the answer lies in the results of the current drilling and testing in Texas. There is plenty of information available for investors to examine, therefore it is easy to research and decide if an investment is warranted but do not confuse yourself with information regarding Aurora Oil and Gas Inc if you are considering investing in AUT. A google search will bring up both.


----------



## nioka (23 September 2007)

Looking at the quotes for ADI and AUT it is one of the few times that AUT is ahead. In the past I would have taken advantage of the situation to convert half my AUT to ADI. This time I,m not so sure. It may be a sign that there is something in the wind heading towards AUT. I think I'll sit and watch this one out.


----------



## nioka (15 October 2007)

Once again AUT is in trouble with it's share entitlement offer. The rights to the new issue at 53c is now above the selling price on todays market. The issue is underwritten so they will still raise the funds but there has to be some good news soon for interest to be maintained in this stock.


----------



## Agentm (6 November 2007)

*RIGHTS ISSUE – NOTIFICATION OF SHORTFALL *​Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT, "Aurora") advises that acceptances under the Company’s 1 for 10 entitlement offer ( as first announced to the market on 23 July 2007, "Rights Issue" ) closed at 5pm (WST) on 1 November 2007. 
Valid acceptances for 2,780,915 shares were received, representing a take-up of approximately 15.2%. The underwritten shortfall of 15,426,632 shares will now be placed by the underwriters of the Rights Issue. 
[FONT=Arial,Arial]Aurora expects that, following allotment of the Rights Issue shares, holding statements will be despatched on or before 9 November 2007. [/FONT]


----------



## nioka (6 November 2007)

Agentm said:


> *RIGHTS ISSUE – NOTIFICATION OF SHORTFALL *​Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT, "Aurora") advises that acceptances under the Company’s 1 for 10 entitlement offer ( as first announced to the market on 23 July 2007, "Rights Issue" ) closed at 5pm (WST) on 1 November 2007.
> Valid acceptances for 2,780,915 shares were received, representing a take-up of approximately 15.2%. The underwritten shortfall of 15,426,632 shares will now be placed by the underwriters of the Rights Issue.
> [FONT=Arial,Arial]Aurora expects that, following allotment of the Rights Issue shares, holding statements will be despatched on or before 9 November 2007. [/FONT]



 Not surprising. I certainly could see no sense in paying 53c when the market allowed them to be purchased cheaper. This will hold the SP down as the underwriters will be looking for an opportunity to unload the shares they were obliged to take. AUT gambled on some good news coming from Sugarloaf before the due date. This has not happened as ADI, AUT & EKA holders know.
Where to from here? I'll wait a little longer but I am losing patience. I'm glad I traded in and out along the way, at least I'm ahead but it hasn't been a good year because of ADI and AUT. The lesson to be learnt, Don't send off a cheque for an entitlement until it is due. Once you pay, you are in regardless. I still have my cheque which I will now tear up. I did sell enough at 58c earlier on to cover my entitlement so there is a small consolation.


----------



## nioka (6 November 2007)

Agentm said:


> *RIGHTS ISSUE – NOTIFICATION OF SHORTFALL *​Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT, "Aurora") advises that acceptances under the Company’s 1 for 10 entitlement offer ( as first announced to the market on 23 July 2007, "Rights Issue" ) closed at 5pm (WST) on 1 November 2007.
> Valid acceptances for 2,780,915 shares were received, representing a take-up of approximately 15.2%. The underwritten shortfall of 15,426,632 shares will now be placed by the underwriters of the Rights Issue.
> [FONT=Arial,Arial]Aurora expects that, following allotment of the Rights Issue shares, holding statements will be despatched on or before 9 November 2007. [/FONT]



 Not surprising. I certainly could see no sense in paying 53c when the market allowed them to be purchased cheaper. This will hold the SP down as the underwriters will be looking for an opportunity to unload the shares they were obliged to take. AUT gambled on some good news coming from Sugarloaf before the due date. This has not happened as ADI, AUT & EKA holders know.
Where to from here? I'll wait a little longer but I am losing patience. I'm glad I traded in and out along the way, at least I'm ahead but it hasn't been a good year because of ADI and AUT. The lesson to be learnt, Don't send off a cheque for an entitlement until it is due. Once you pay, you are in regardless. I still have my cheque which I will now tear up. I did sell enough at 58c earlier on to cover my entitlement so there is a small consolation.


----------



## nioka (14 November 2007)

The news from Sugarloaf and Kennedy, while not "over the moon" does have some positives which gives me some hope that Aut will prove a worthwhile investment after all this waiting. It comes a little too late to help the recent rights issue but it may give the underwriters a chance to pass on the shares without loss and without crashing the SP.


----------



## nioka (4 July 2008)

AUT is certainly the poor relative of ADI. While the posts on ADI continue on a daily basis there has not been a post on AUT for almost 8 months. It seems odd that one company with it's main story being the Sugarloaf oil and gas venture gets so much support yet AUT with the same percentage interest gets next to none. While AUT's interest in sugarloaf is diluted compared to that of ADI the fact that AUT has an interest in much more acreage more than offsets the dilution.

 For some time now I have used the difference in valuations in the SP of both to trade between the two. Once again today I used the difference to trade for a bigger share in the fortunes of the area and still cream off some petty cash. The rise of ADI by 22.22% for the day compared with the rise of only 2.56% by AUT made this possible. Added to that is the fact that the ADI I sold were bought with the proceeds of an AUT sale when the comparative values were in reverse to those today.

My conclusion today is that, compared to the SP of ADI, the SP of AUT is undervaluing the company.

 With the possibility of good news regarding the Kennedy frac due in the next few days the potential for both ADI and AUT is enormous, especially with the spiraling price of oil.

 I'm often wrong so DYOR.


----------



## Broadside (4 July 2008)

Hey Nioka, I guess ADI serves as the proxy thread for the other Sugarloaf partners.  I am still in ADI, EKA and have a few AUT for the extra acreage.  Let's hope for some great results in the next month or two and silence the naysayers who've been irking us for the past couple of years.


----------



## condog (14 January 2010)

Took the plunge on 100,000 AUT shares this morning 

Loved the tenements they hold in what IMO is looking like it could be the best shale oil reserve in the entire USA..... results look extremely encouraging

And if they smash 10 wells into that reserve within 12 months the return looks astronomical....

I had huge trouble deciding between ADI and AUT as they both have great exposure....ADI has more leverage due to low market cap, but i chose AUT as it had far more acerace and a much bigger variety of projects outside Sugarkane....

This is only ammature opinion so DYOR and DEFINITELY seek expert advcie ... but the company in its investor presentation has 10 wells+ funded for 2010 and if it pulls the all off with 100% strikes and great flow rates, it projects possible? market cap of 200M to 600M.....

My guestimate i went with 300M as my most likely outcome that i wanted ...current market cap is $58M and they have approx $11M cash
so i guestimated my possible upside was approx 400-600% with a likely worst case scenario for me of 200-300% inside 12 months...

Anyway these are just my proojections i used for my by calcs...I really mean this as i am often wrong so DYOR and seek expert advice... 

Feel free to cross examine my numbers in thier announcments and please let me know in here if you disagree or agree...

Also see ADI thread which has heaps of info on this as ADI and AUT are both 20% interests in the same Sugarkane project...

Hapy investing ...


----------



## condog (17 January 2010)

For anyone who reads the ADI thread which  has most the discussion on the Sugarkane project, you may have noted I was torn between buying AUT and ADI ...

I went with AUT over ADI primarly becasue AUT had a post farm in interest of 20% and both EKA and ADI had post farm in interests of 12.5% adn 10% respectively....

AUT also seemed to have IMO a lot better balance sheet with more cash burn time up there sleeves....

But the major deciding factor was after researching the success of other major minors in adjoining areas scuh as ConocoPhillipr and Petrohawk etc it seems this area is fast becoming a  seriously world class oil development project......
As a result AUT had serious acerage compared to the other two ASX companies.... which gives them huge farmn in opportunities with Hillcorp or any of the other majors.....

It was raised that the acerage comes at a huge price.....upon investigation it appears there is much pent up demand and interest by major oil and gas players to obtain access to the region.... So I decided any cost problems with leasing such acerage could in most cases be easily resolved by gradual and rducing % farm ins.....

DYOR, but the likelihood of this project having rediculous short term upside is very high IMO....... The hilltop farm in alone looks set to bring 10 weels online into production with very high flow rates within 12 months.....

Then the excess acerage that AUT has is likely to be farmed into with reduced % on the back of that cash flow....

I would not be surprised if AUT has up to 30 high flow rigs in this one lease within 3 years.... the first at 20% interest , the next 50%, then 80% interst or there abouts....

Definitely DYOR and never forget this type of stock may have big possible upside, but they do carry significant risks.... Always seek expert advice...


----------



## mir (17 January 2010)

condog your pretty much right with what you are saying but the % is wrong

aut has 51500 gross acres 20000 net acres pre farm out
eka has 23500 gross acres 12.5% of that is 2900  net acre pre farm out
adi has 23500 gross acres 20% of that is 4700 net acres pre farm out
all gave away 50% to hilcorp, i think i'm right on this 
if the wells perform as they expect (based on well result around the place)
$300m market cap will be low for aut


----------



## condog (18 January 2010)

mir said:


> condog your pretty much right with what you are saying but the % is wrong
> 
> aut has 51500 gross acres 20000 net acres pre farm out
> eka has 23500 gross acres 12.5% of that is 2900  net acre pre farm out
> ...




Are you referring to me having it wrong with acerage or %, im not sure....
The % are spot on as far as I can tell....the acerages yeh your right , except perhaps on ADI as im not sure if that was there pre or post farm in acerage....I thought post farm in ADI had 10% of 23,000 acres so they only have 2300 acres....which by the way is fantastic, nut just not as good as AUT...

Na your close - but  ADI only has 10% after farm in....
see company presentation dated 25th Nov 2009


----------



## condog (18 January 2010)

MIR Im glad you questioned me on that , as it triggered me to go cross check the reports and my sums on AUT.... while i was there I re-read sections of that Nov ADI report and the AUT web site.....

In particular I went over and recalculated the NSAI resource estimate ...... And even when they are set to worst case and then discounted by 60% my clacluations on this are horrendous.....

Im not going to put them in here as some moron might acuse me of ramping.... but go and do your own calculations...particularly on the figures refferred to by the NSIA from page 16 of the 24 page ADI report and from the AUT website 
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp

Using the worst case scenario in the NSIA report I still come out with a projected share price of $9.32 for 5 years time.... and discounted 50% Im projecting $4.65 by 2015.....with a significnat proportion of those gains in the first 2 years....

Id really like someone else to go and run some calculations and cross check mine...so please feel free to absolutely hammer it, but with your new numbers based on the NSIA estimates would be best....

All of this is obviously reliant on AUT meeting the NSIA worst case projection....and that is not guaraunteed....

DYOR, seek expert advice....


----------



## mir (18 January 2010)

condog aut have 3 areas sugarloaf 23500  gross acres (aut 20%,eka12.5%,adi20%)
longhorn 23500 gross acreas (only aut 50%)
ipanema 4500 gross acres (only aut 80%) this is pre farm out, post farm out half the % above.
those new calcs of yours are more along the lines of what I've been hearing  for a year or so.


----------



## mir (18 January 2010)

condog i believe the nsai report was on the conservative side




i need a few lessons on posting  as i have no idea, do you need  a min size post


----------



## condog (18 January 2010)

MIR the report was on the conservative side an i have scaled those figures back even more by using extremely conservative numbers and then discounting them by 40%.....

Its the biggest  nooooooooo brainer I have ever discovered in many years of investing.......Lots of upside and most the big risks are taken care of.....Mgmt here are doing an insanely brilliant job in negotiations....... IMO...but DYOR and seek expert advice...

Im not ramping, hell i hope you dont by it as when VIL eventually goes i will be buying a truck load more of this......


----------



## mir (18 January 2010)

condog "its the biggest nooooooo brainer" is correct but we need a reasonable result from the next 2 fracs .us long term holders have been waiting a while but with hilcorp on board spending the necessary amount of money we should get results similar to others in the area & then we should be away.


----------



## condog (18 January 2010)

mir said:


> condog "its the biggest nooooooo brainer" is correct but we need a reasonable result from the next 2 fracs .us long term holders have been waiting a while but with hilcorp on board spending the necessary amount of money we should get results similar to others in the area & then we should be away.




I fully understand your frustration if you have been in it long term, but Hilcorp do not pay their execs monumental salaries and bonuses to stuff around with things that wont cash in big time.... secondly Hilcorp have targets that must be met or its no pay day....  They didn't become Hillcorp without absolutely knowing and succeding at what they do....

Mate have faith your circumstances have massively changed and with 3 wells in progress, plus 3 more soon expect a change of fortunes very soon....  Have you looked at the flow rates of the new well designs they are putting in.... and there redesign of the existing wells to take advantage of the new technologies on offer...for this type of frac...if your not familiar its all outline in the ADI Annual Presentation form late 2009....


----------



## mir (18 January 2010)

condog you are getting up to speed very quickly on this. i have seen most of the aut presentations in person & do believe in the potential, it is massive.
aut have 3 wells in progress & 7 new ones not 3 (with hicorp).
i agree with what you are saying about hilcorp as they had access to all the data on wells in the region through tcei when negotiating the farm in ,they know what their getting


----------



## condog (18 January 2010)

mir said:


> aut have 3 wells in progress & 7 new ones not 3 (with hilcorp).




I was working from this below and think we just have our wires crossed, no big shakes , neither here nor there...
The key elements of the farmout for Aurora are as follows:-



> Aurora will be free carried for the drilling, completion and tie in of up to 7 new horizontal wells and the stimulation of the three existing Sugarloaf horizontal wells; Kennedy #1H, Kowalik #1H and Weston #1H. This will establish a total of 10 wells on production across Aurora’s acreage of which 6 will be located within the Sugarloaf AMI, 3 in Longhorn and 1 in Ipanema. Under the terms of the farmout this work program has a series of deadlines over the next 20 months.




To me the Shale has major benefits over other projects....


> The Eagle Ford Shale has one clear benefit over almost every other gas shale play in North America; that is the very high gas condensate (light oil) ratios observed. The Sugarkane field appears to be a sweet spot within the Eagle Ford shale trend with condensate gas ratios observed between 130 and 300 bbl per mmcf of gas produced.






> With some 50 wells having been drilled in the Eagle Ford shale by the end of 2009, drilling and completion techniques have been refined resulting in higher initial production rates, lower decline rates (increased recovery per well), and together with lower drilling costs, the overall commerciality of the play has improved.






On this basis this is post farm in for ADI so for AUT double these figures...

ADI is saying a possible 235 Wells, now thats insane when you consider the size of thes companies.....calculate that out , then try and tell me theres not enough upside......lol


----------



## condog (19 January 2010)

whoop whoop  10% up this morning and new 12 mth high for the year....of 33c
3:1 + Buy Sell Ratio, although some are old buys at stupidly low prices... 




Hopefully the news is filtering out to the broader market about all 3 ASX Sugarkane prospects...  DYOR and seek expert advice.....


----------



## mir (19 January 2010)

condog aut has 10000 net acres post farm out adi have 2300 net acres post farm out so aut will have 4 x 130 bcfe net. I'm not sure if you used this for you calcs or No. of wells drilled .


----------



## condog (19 January 2010)

mir said:


> condog aut has 10000 net acres post farm out adi have 2300 net acres post farm out so aut will have 4 x 130 bcfe net. I'm not sure if you used this for you calcs or No. of wells drilled .




Can you post a pic of your source or quote please....
The acreage helps in future value, but the all the values in my calcs are off predicted oil and gas ....
The acerage was a hair spliter between ADI, EKA and AUT as they all have exposure and levarage to any potential upside...


----------



## condog (19 January 2010)

Acerage data attached from AUT web site 




http://www.auroraoag.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp
Disc- DYOR, seek expert advice, no responsibility taken by ASF or me for external link



> Farm Out
> Aurora was pleased to announce in September 2009 that it had successfully farmed out its consolidated acreage across the Sugarkane Gas and Condensate field to Hilcorp Energy Company (“Hilcorp”), estimated to be the 4th largest private E&P company in the USA.
> 
> The key elements of the farmout for Aurora are as follows:-
> ...




I think you have hold of the tail and ive got the dog or vice versa, but small fry so dont worry....focus on the possible MmBoe .... acerage will be useful after that, and you and me will most likely have traded out of it and be sitting on a beach in the Bahammmas....lol ----no upside implied, just fun...


----------



## mir (19 January 2010)

condog i am new to posting & dont know how to use all the features so that's   why my post are basic but i am not new to aut & have not sold a share in 4 or more years (have added along the way) and will be waiting for it to reach true value which is miles north of here imo. plenty of things starting to happen so i think your timing on this has been pretty good.


----------



## condog (20 January 2010)

Make your own judgment, but IMO its broke a major resistance line...




IMO most likely because news on #1 Kennedy or Easley #1H are being fraced as per Sugarloaf asx update a week or so ago... 7-10 days is anticipated time frame.... although news could come earlier.......

Kawalik #1 update should be soon as well

In addition from the ADI thread - Pioneer have tapped some serious gas at 17Mmcf per day...


choppy said:


> Well the word is out on the Pioneer Crawley:
> 
> http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=85928&hmpn=1
> 
> ...


----------



## ectoplasm (20 January 2010)

condog said:


> Make your own judgment, but IMO its broke a major resistance line...
> ...




Agreed guys, seems to be over consolidation and price action sparking off IMO - maybe cause of recent 5x price sensitive company announcements 

Chart:


----------



## condog (20 January 2010)

Thanks for that...

Green on top, split shape taper just visible, plus borken through and major announcments pending as early as today or tommorrow and as late as a weeks time..............

It feels  like playing roulette with 35 winning slots at present....and the 5 losers are just time delays...


----------



## condog (20 January 2010)

Strong arvo, on no news......although some mods after 4pm..... but the good news is every afternoon at 4pm we are closer to what seems like the innevitable....

Tiny sell volumes left this afternoon.....agian one really wonders about the niavity or sanity of anyone selling within days of the news on Easley and Kennedy Fracs...  perhaps they just have no clue whats going on.... especially those two idiots parting with 100,000 shares each... OMG if they leave AUT on thier lists what do you thinks gunna be going through there heads inn 12 months time.....

Hopefully not a smith and wesson...lol


----------



## WRONG'UN (20 January 2010)

Hi Condog
While I share your excitment with AUT (I actually hold ADI), it's getting a bit rich to describe anyone who sells right now as an idiot. How do you know that the person or persons who sold two lots of 100,000 shares had not earlier bought considerably more at a much lower price? Having done so, banking some of the paper profit would be perfectly sound risk management - hardly the behaviour of an idiot. While it would be nice to conclude that the sp is going to go to through the roof, there is no guarantee that it will.


----------



## condog (20 January 2010)

WRONG'UN said:


> Hi Condog
> While I share your excitment with AUT (I actually hold ADI), it's getting a bit rich to describe anyone who sells right now as an idiot. How do you know that the person or persons who sold two lots of 100,000 shares had not earlier bought considerably more at a much lower price? Having done so, banking some of the paper profit would be perfectly sound risk management - hardly the behaviour of an idiot. While it would be nice to conclude that the sp is going to go to through the roof, there is no guarantee that it will.




Fair pooint , bit too fiesty , but then perhaps they just have no semblance of common sense or intelligence rather then being an idiot.....lol   just baiting you ignore it...

IMO by all means take a profit, but fancy leaving a sell on at a tiny gain that will only be reached on huge news....possibly very soon....thats maybe not idiocrity, but god damn its strange, no matter when they bought them....they havent though that one through real well...


----------



## condog (21 January 2010)

*Re: AUT - Performance Rights Issue*

A Total of 3M to one and 990,000 to his poor cousin....

I got no problems you want good people you got to pay em to keep them, 
The first year target is fine, but subsequent years are a bit soft.....
2010 60c, 2011 70c, 2012, 80c, 2013 90c

Theres almost 224M total shares and options

They want 4M in performance thats a total 1.7% dilution 
Eg upon exercise our shares become worth 1.7% less
At average exercisable price of say 65c that represents a remuniration bonus of roughly $1.95 Million and $643K spread over 4 years....It represent an approximate sp fall of 1cents per share over the 4 years

So no problem with the cost what so ever or the concept, but 2013 target they get 100% allotment as a performanc bonue even if they only increase the sp by 12.5%.........Other then some property exposure I wouldnt invest in any company aiming to get 12.5 % growth realisticlly.

IMO its first year is fine, subsequent years very soft targets, but probably not bad enough to reject....just maybe attach a note that your dissapointed with soft targets for later years so they dont pull that trick in future years...

In any case they have done an outstanding job in the last 6-12 months....

I wrote to them and expressed concern this morning...but said i would be backing it...


----------



## Nathan74 (21 January 2010)

condog said:


> IMO by all means take a profit, but fancy leaving a sell on at a tiny gain that will only be reached on huge news....possibly very soon....thats maybe not idiocrity, but god damn its strange, no matter when they bought them....they havent though that one through real well...




Hi Condog, you have a very good understanding of AUT and I've found the majority of your posts very helpful. But your comment quoted above is way off the mark. As Wrongun pointed out, they could have already made a tidy profit. But there are many other reasons for selling which include:

1. Instead of making a 100% gain by holding the share, why not sell the peaks and buy the dips to potentially make a 500% profit! I hold this share and agree the sp has potential to rise considerably, but that doesn't mean I won't sell if I think the share has had a good run and may temporarily pull back.

2. The shareholder may not have any choice but to sell for financial reasons. You couldn't blame someone for selling if they can't pay their bills.

3. The shareholder may be looking to adjust their portfolio to a more conservative holding. AUT looks very promising but no share is guaranteed to go up. A more stable bluechip could be a better choice for a retiree trying to reduce risk.

4. The shareholder may know of another share which is poised to make even bigger gains. AUT isn't the only company close to making big announcements.

I am bullish on this share, but sellers have their reasons for selling, reasons which we have no knowledge of.


----------



## condog (21 January 2010)

Nathan74 said:


> Hi Condog, you have a very good understanding of AUT and I've found the majority of your posts very helpful. But your comment quoted above is way off the mark. As Wrongun pointed out, they could have already made a tidy profit. But there are many other reasons for selling which include:
> 
> 1. Instead of making a 100% gain by holding the share, why not sell the peaks and buy the dips to potentially make a 500% profit! I hold this share and agree the sp has potential to rise considerably, but that doesn't mean I won't sell if I think the share has had a good run and may temporarily pull back.
> 
> ...




All points noted and agreed.....very legit points

I still think they are nutzo with such potentially signiificant announcments pending....unless they are doing it with 2 parcels or oppies of some sort..


----------



## Speculator (22 January 2010)

22nd January 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Kennedy #1H - Fracture stimulation program
Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the fracture stimulation operations at Kennedy #1H commenced as scheduled on Monday 18th January. The operations thus far have been executed as planned with the fourth stimulation stage out of fourteen under way early on the morning of Thursday 21st January local time. It is expected that the stimulations will be completed next week and thereafter the isolating plugs that are set in between each stimulation stage will be drilled out with coiled tubing and the well will be flowed back to sales.

Easley #1 H – Spud of new well
TCEI have also advised Aurora that the Patterson #150 drilling unit has now completed rig up and the Easley #1H well was spudded on Thursday 21st January. The well is scheduled to take approximately 40 days to drill, which includes a vertical pilot hole from which additional data on the Eagle Ford Shale will be gathered. The well has been designed with a 4,000 ft horizontal section and will access both the Austin Chalk horizon, which is locally prevalent within the Sugarkane field, and the Eagle Ford Shale when it is subsequently stimulated. The well is located approximately 2km to the north east of the Weston #1H well. The Easley #1H well will be the first new well to be drilled under the farmin agreement with Hilcorp Energy within the Sugarloaf AMI.

Further operational updates will be issued on a weekly basis or if required following material events.
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman


----------



## condog (22 January 2010)

Speculator said:


> 22nd January 2010
> Company Announcements Platform
> Australian Stock Exchange
> Level 4
> ...




Did you hear that folks - Kennedy will be flowing to sales next week .............that = cash $$  Today may be the last day to tap in...??

Love it....With Easely hot on its heals.......


----------



## adobee (22 January 2010)

New Sugarloaf AMI update out... looking good.. right on time too to get rid of the 16c sellers...   would love a push past 18c resistance


----------



## adobee (22 January 2010)

adobee said:


> New Sugarloaf AMI update out... looking good.. right on time too to get rid of the 16c sellers...   would love a push past 18c resistance




sorry wrong thread !! my bad ...  ADI thread for this one.. same info but ..
GO ADI & AUT  ...........


----------



## condog (23 January 2010)

All good news so far since last post in HC forum and in ADI thread on ASF....no reports of any probs....

Kennedy announcment of oil flow to sales is imminent....

Easely, barring any probs will be flowing to sales around 2nd March and 

we should have a Kowalik update soon....

Not sure where they are up to on redesign of existing wells....anyone know??


----------



## condog (26 January 2010)

A little dated but An interesting diagram and website that explains the Eagleford shale....from http://www.energyindustryphotos.com/eagle_ford_shale__formation_of_s.htm
diclaimer - no responsibility for ext links, by ASF or me...

 Aurora Tenement sits right almost on top of the shelf margins


----------



## philly (26 January 2010)

Hey Condog, 
I see you are very excited about the following ASX announcement especially the last sentence

SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with an update on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Kennedy #1H - Fracture stimulation program
Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the fracture stimulation operations at Kennedy #1H commenced as scheduled on Monday 18th January. The operations thus far have been executed as planned with the fourth stimulation stage out of fourteen under way early on the morning of Thursday 21st January local time. It is expected that the stimulations will be completed next week and thereafter the isolating plugs that are set in between each stimulation stage will be drilled out with coiled tubing and the well will be flowed back to sales.

I'm not being smart and I hope I am wrong [ I hold ADI] I think "flowed back to sales" doesn't make sense. Perhaps "sales" may be short for the place La Salles which is the oil and gas hub in the region. Presumably it has to go there before it can be sold so hopefully in the end your excitement is justified


----------



## condog (26 January 2010)

philly said:


> I'm not being smart and I hope I am wrong [ I hold ADI] I think "flowed back to sales" doesn't make sense. Perhaps "sales" may be short for the place La Salles which is the oil and gas hub in the region. Presumably it has to go there before it can be sold so hopefully in the end your excitement is justified




Hey Philly
Na its common language for all of them...flowed to sales or flowed back to sales...it would be an incredibly not funny coincidence if you where right....
But all mine im involved with regularly yse this term indicating flow of oil to sales...$$


----------



## philly (26 January 2010)

condog said:


> Hey Philly
> Na its common language for all of them...flowed to sales or flowed back to sales...it would be an incredibly not funny coincidence if you where right....
> But all mine im involved with regularly yse this term indicating flow of oil to sales...$$




Hey Condog
I hadn't come across the phrase before so I am happy to accept your explanation. Hopefully sales soon will give the SP a boost along. Thanks


----------



## condog (28 January 2010)

Hi guys n gals
Kennedy flow announcment should be today or tommorrow, monday at the latest.....it is winter however....they may have cold hands???


----------



## condog (28 January 2010)

Got our news, not what we wanted to hear,

But all in all it will produce from 8 of the 14 stages....

We should get another announcment soon on flow rates...


----------



## Speculator (28 January 2010)

Little bit frustrating but that comes with the territory.

Practicing patience is probably one of an investors most powerful assets.

At least youve still VIL to look forward to Condog, short time wise anyway.


----------



## condog (28 January 2010)

Speculator said:


> Little bit frustrating but that comes with the territory.
> 
> Practicing patience is probably one of an investors most powerful assets.
> 
> At least youve still VIL to look forward to Condog, short time wise anyway.




Yes and yes.....patience can make me so impatient at times.....

AUT has more in it and its more certain ....but TCEI have either been dead unlucky or need a solid kick in the #@#..... 2 out of 2 problems..... 

I think they must have a ladder or black cat on site.... Looking forward to flow data though as it will be a partial early indicator.....

AUT must be questioning the credibility of the TCEI drilling team they have acquired though...


----------



## condog (29 January 2010)

I found this quote over on HC and think its a good summation of where we are at

"  I am relieved that they have managed half. The early wells were experimental. The real test will be the new design wells. They will be designed for the multi-stage fracture stimulation. Kowalik was not designed for stimulation at all and, if you remember, Kennedy ended up in the Eagleford but there was no prior statement that the Eagleford was actually the target.

There is a clear statement by the company that the results to be produced will be representative of the potential. That must mean that they are satisfied with that bottom 2,200 ft. First we need to see what it does flow, then we need to see Easley flow about double that....

Then we need to see it replicated...

But don't kick the frac team for problems with the design and construction of these early wells.

We need to sweat it out a bit longer....there's no alternative.

However, think how ghastly this would have been had the jvps been stumbling onwards without the guaranteed funding of 3 new design wells. If Easley, Morgan + other prove to be good, that will be vindication of the farmout strategy."

Not a bad summation from someone who obviously has significant patience...


----------



## condog (1 February 2010)

A sensational piece of news...especially given on 8 stages of the horizontal where completed properly.....another 4000ft isolated and not contribuiting....so any fix, or supplental well flow should be fantastic....



> KENNEDY #1H - OPERATIONS UPDATE
> Aurora Oil & Gas (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the market with the following update on operations at the Kennedy #1H well.
> Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”), that the isolation plugs set as part of the fracture operations have been drilled out and the well commenced unloading at 0100 hrs on Thursday 28th 2010 (USCST). *The initial production rate flowing to sales at 0700 hrs on Saturday 30th January (USCST) using a 22/64 choke was 4.39 mmscf/d gas and 1,132 bpd of condensate.* The water production rate, from the recovery of frac fluids, was 408 bwpd.
> Whilst these initial rates are very encouraging, the following points should be noted:-
> ...


----------



## condog (1 February 2010)

Agent in the ADI thread reckons once they run the tubing we can possibly expect significant increase in flows.....Additionally Im in total agreement that Hilcorp will now step it aup a massive notch....event the company says  expect lots of action 







> murphy had a well doing this..
> 
> We are off to a great start with our Eagle Ford Shale program in south Texas. We recently announced the discovery at our first well, the George Miles number one drilled in McMullen County.
> 
> ...


----------



## condog (2 February 2010)

Lots of positive news in the last week on Eagleford....with quality and quantity of news reports dramatically rising.....its just a matter of time now till all the AMI comanies fall big time onto the Australian and international brokers radars....



> Petrohawk Reserves Top Forecast
> by Eric Chenoweth | 01 Feb 10
> 
> On Monday, Petrohawk Energy HK reported that year-end proved reserves were 2.75 trillion cubic feet equivalent (tcfe) (compared with 1.4 tcfe at year-end 2008). ................
> *The Eagle Ford Shale added 294 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe)........*






> UPDATE 1-Pioneer says Eagle Ford results top expectations
> Oil and gas company Pioneer Natural Resources Inc (PXD.N) said initial production from its second well in the Eagle Ford shale in Texas beat its estimates and it is looking for a joint venture for the shale, with bids expected in the second quarter.
> 
> "*With the highest gas rate reported to date in the play, the Crawley z1 exceeded our expectations and confirms that dry gas wells provide strong economics at today's prices," CEO Scott Sheffield said in a statement.
> ...





> ConocoPhillips Reports Fourth-Quarter Earnings of $1.2 Billion
> HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP):
> 
> ..... *the company continues to see good results from our Eagle Ford shale *





> Pioneer beefs up Eagle Ford shale efforts
> HOUSTON, Jan. 20 -- Pioneer Natural Resources Co., Dallas, completed its second South Texas Eagle Ford shale well, *formed an Eagle Ford asset team, and is pursuing a joint venture with bids *expected in the second quarter.
> 
> The company turned to sales its Robert Crawley Gas Unit-1 well in Live Oak County *which flowed 17 MMcfd of gas ......*
> ...


----------



## Timmy (2 February 2010)

Read this:

Posting rumours on ASF
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5917&highlight=rumours



Joe Blow said:


> Posting unverified rumours on ASF is simply not on.
> 
> If you are not prepared to identify your source or confirm a rumour with the company involved then please do not post it on the forums. Just for the record, anonymous forum chatter and unidentified 'friends' or 'associates' do not qualify as a legitimate source.
> 
> Some rumours, of course, do turn out to be accurate but many are simply made up and used to ramp stocks up or down. It is this aspect that troubles me and is the reason I do not want them posted here at ASF.


----------



## condog (2 February 2010)

Timmy how do you know for fact its a rumour???


Youve deleted this, and now casue my post is the last one makes me look like i started the rumour.....

Let me set the record straight...it was not me.....but i liked it and dont for a moment think it has no credibility....  

Theres a fine line in here between what gets called rumour and what doesnt....

The fact an analyst with a vested interest or journalist says something does not make it any more fact then some punter in here saying it....  Often the punters know there stock far better then most journos and some analysts / brokers.... and often the first real thing we here is actually online...


----------



## kurtneverdied (2 February 2010)

Thanks condog for your PM. Can't reply due to post count <5.
I have been following your posts for a few weeks now and found them very informative. I hold AUT and UNS split into $2200 worth. I'm hoping I can hold these as an investment for at least a few years, but may have to get out in 6 months as these are my only savings.


----------



## Timmy (2 February 2010)

condog said:


> Youve deleted this, and now casue my post is the last one makes me look like i started the rumour.....
> 
> Let me set the record straight...it was not me.....




Sorry Condog - didn't want to leave that impression - *for the record it was not Condog who started a rumour*, the rumour posts have been deleted.


----------



## condog (3 February 2010)

WOW
The most reliable information provider on this forum, i know of on the Eagleford Shale came out with this this morning.....from the ADI thread



Agentm said:


> i think aut with its acreages are surely going to be temptation for many??




I totally cocnur, which is why Im in AUT 10 times bigger then my AZZ holdings... its low market cap and high acerage in this red hot area makes its possible upside potential huge...


----------



## jancha (3 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> Sorry Condog - didn't want to leave that impression - *for the record it was not Condog who started a rumour*, the rumour posts have been deleted.




Ah guess that was me.
Sorry about that even though what was said was what i was told & made sense to me.
 I was merely asking if anyone knew of an American Company that had a previous take over bid on aut.


----------



## condog (3 February 2010)

Thats cool , i just didnt want it looking like it was me .....ta.... you bought yourself a lot of credibility with that honesty and integrity


----------



## adobee (3 February 2010)

not much available to but in this company at the moment ...  could see a real break out if there is some market attention grabbing news. .. slowly picking some up today ...


----------



## condog (3 February 2010)

adobee said:


> not much available to but in this company at the moment ...  could see a real break out if there is some market attention grabbing news. .. slowly picking some up today ...




Yeh i reckon...if someone picks up a few at 0.38...off we go baby... 
as long as this happens prior to the sellers creeping back in...


----------



## tonudiki (4 February 2010)

A nice write-up on Oilbarrel.com re Aurora and the initial Kennedy flow rates, the potential of the Hilcorp farm-in etc. etc.

February 02, 2010

Aurora Oil & Gas Encouraged By Initial Flow Rates From Kennedy-1H As The Sugarkane Project Gains Momentum





Having successfully inked farm-in terms for its promising Sugarkane project at the back end of last year, Aurora Oil & Gas can report an acceleration of activity across the South Texas gas and condensate field including the successful production test of an existing well and the spudding of a new well, Easley-1H. This will be a relief for investors, who have long awaited confirmation of the potential of this asset which has the potential to be transformational for the ASX company given the growing buzz surrounding the emerging Eagle Ford shale play.
September’s farm-in by Hilcorp, the fourth largest private E&P in the US, has put some real momentum behind this project, with ASX-listed Aurora now free carried for the drilling, completion and tie in of up to seven new horizontal wells and the stimulation of the three existing horizontal wells on the field.  This work programme, which will be implemented over the next 20 months, will put ten wells into production across Aurora’s three Areas of Mutual Interest: Sugarloaf (20 per cent pre-farm-out), Longhorn (50 per cent) and Ipanema (80 per cent).  In return, Hilcorp will earn up to 50 per cent of Aurora’s interest in the Sugarloaf and Longhorn Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI) and five/eights of the smaller Ipanema AMI. 

Phase 1 of the work programme involves the hydraulic stimulation of the three existing wells, two of which, Kennedy-1H and Kowalik-1H, have been producing limited volumes: the unstimulated Kowalik well producing 10.3 million cubic feet of gas and 3,395 barrels of condensate over the September business quarter and the partially-stimulated Kennedy well producing just over 2 million cf of gas and 743 barrels of condensate for the three month period.  A third horizontal well, Weston-1H, is not producing.  

Fraccing operations to boost production from these three wells are now underway.  Initial results have been mixed, indicating the complexity of the engineering task. At Kowalik-1H, an attempt to pull the slotted liner proved problematic and an alternative completion and stimulation plan was drawn up.  This got underway at the end of 2009 but there were further operational complications and the well has still to be tested.  

However, the results from Kennedy-1H have been much better. Initial production from the well started at the weekend from 2,200 feet of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale with the remaining 4,000 feet of horizontal liner still isolated and not contributing.  The initial flow rate was 4.39 million cf/d of gas and 1,132 barrels per day of condensate.  Water production, due to the recovery of frac fluids, was 408 bpd.  

“It is early days but these initial flow rates are extremely encouraging including, of course, the expected high condensate ratio,” said Aurora’s executive chairman Jon Stewart.  

Next up will be the stimulation of the Weston well, which should provide further data on the potential of this asset.  And that potential could be significant, with talk of a multi-tcf condensate-rich resource within the prolific and well known Austin Chalk formation and the emerging over pressured Eagle Ford Shale trend.  The field, discovered in 2006, lies some 20 km south of the main Texas Austin Chalk trend and is on trend with recent Eagle Ford Shale discoveries. The growing regional buzz surrounding the Eagle Ford shale trend has seen increased investment in land and drilling activity on neighbouring leases.  But shale oil and gas plays only work if the right completion and production solutions can be found to economically extract the hydrocarbons from these tight rock formations.    

Some local operators are getting it right.  NYSE-listed Petrohawk Energy has 16-operated wells in production on its lands to the southeast of Aurora, with an average initial rate of 7.8 million cubic feet per day of gas and 143 bpd of condensate, while the Sinor-5 well, operated by Pioneer Natural Resources some 18 miles to the southwest of Sugarloaf-1, flowed 8.3 million cf/d of gas and 500 bpd of condensate.  ConocoPhillips’ Bordovsky-1H well, 18 miles northeast of Sugarloaf-1, had initial production of 4 million cf/d of gas and 1,500 bpd of condensate - a high condensate ratio that is comparable to that observed in the Sugarloaf wells to date and one of the highest initial production rates in the trend seen to date .  Aurora’s backers will be hoping that their slice of the Sugarkane pie can deliver similar results.


----------



## condog (4 February 2010)

Thanks tonudiki

An awesome day for AUT and the other AMI participants, a combination of a few bulls around, good oil price, recent news, anticipated news and finally some good recognition for the amazing assets that are IMO rapidly developing and escalating in value....

IMHO Its going to be a very big 12 months for all AMI companies (AUT, ADI, EKA)

Disc - yes own and will profit...DYOR Seek expert ind advice...


----------



## Kremmen (5 February 2010)

condog said:


> IMHO Its going to be a very big 12 months for all AMI companies (AUT, ADI, EKA)




ADI has less shares on issue than AUT and the same interest in the Sugarloaf AMI. It seems that if the AMI ends up worth a fortune and nothing else matters, AUT, at 38c vs ADI's 20c, is not worth buying. Does AUT have enough value elsewhere to be worth the premium?


----------



## condog (5 February 2010)

It has significantly more acerage....the cost of carrying such acerage is a problem if it goes undeveloped....but with every major oily now wanting a piece of the action the acerage is rapidly becoming an extremely valuable asset....


----------



## Kremmen (5 February 2010)

condog said:


> It has significantly more acerage....




I've read that, and presumably that is part of the reason for the greater stock value. It seems to me that with the AMI area being developed first, the first thing that happens, if things are great, is that all the AMI partners make money. Later, maybe some of AUT's surrounding areas will be worth something. So, surely the big payoff for AUT, if it comes, is further down the track? It seems to me that AUT may be the longer-term play, yet it's taking off sooner.


----------



## mir (5 February 2010)

kremmer aut has more then 4 times the net acres adi has , conoco has drilled the brodovsky well next to our longhorn acreage with 1500 bpd & so has EOG.aut will have 4 extra wells drilled on their extra acreages paid for by hilcorp (probably this year the way things are going).


----------



## condog (5 February 2010)

*Rigs Tripple at Eagle Ford in less then 6 months*


> As for the growing popularity of the Eagle Ford, this is summed up by a recent Ross Smith Energy Group report, which found that rigs operating in the play quadrupled from 11 in August to 45 in January. That's some serious heat down in South Texas



 From motley Fool .com 

*Magnum Hunter Allocates Almost a Third of Its 2010 CAPEX Budget To Eagleford*


> For the Eagle Ford Shale located in Central and South Texas, Magnum Hunter has allocated approximately $7.0 million of capex (approximately 28% of the total). The Company plans to horizontally drill two unbooked Eagle Ford Shale locations during fiscal year 2010, with one of these to be completed before mid-year. Additionally, Magnum Hunter will be fracing this month an Eagle Ford Shale vertical well to test the fracturing and stimulation process for use going forward on the Company's extensive Eagle Ford Shale mineral lease acreage inventory. The balance of Magnum Hunter's capex budget in the Eagle Ford Shale will be for additional leasing related activities that are currently ongoing.




And then the big daddy of them all


> In 2009, Petrohawk Energy (NYSE: HK) spent about $450 million amassing leasehold in shale plays like the Haynesville and the Eagleford.





All encouraguing signs for both our drilling results and acerage values...


----------



## estseon (5 February 2010)

Hilcorp has exercised option to be operator over Sugarloaf. See my post on ADI of EME Regulated News Release. Also, Easley still progressing fine, Weston frac started yesterday and Kennedy still cleaning up.


----------



## condog (6 February 2010)

estseon said:


> Hilcorp has exercised option to be operator over Sugarloaf. See my post on ADI of EME Regulated News Release. Also, Easley still progressing fine, Weston frac started yesterday and Kennedy still cleaning up.




Thanks estseaon - Good news all round except the DJIA down another 118 at present... but on the underlying asset front, very good news indeed...


----------



## condog (6 February 2010)

And as Agent just stated in the ADI thread Hilcorp have just raised $300M.... one presumes this will lead to an accelelration in there Eagle Ford interests, especially given its within days of exercising their option to take over as operator for Sugarloaf....

As announced above 6 months saw an increase of rigs from 11-45, hillcorp have just gone from 1-2 and after having raised $300M it is IMO concievable they would now ramp up sugarloaf exploration...after all why take it over unless your prepared to do something the current operator is not able to do....

Expect big things  IMO.....and with hilcorp being the new kid on the block they need to expand more and faster then others just to keep there intersts in balance....


----------



## condog (6 February 2010)

More good news from and for The Eagle Ford Shale with Elpaso inreasing reserves by 44%, and most of it is from the Eagle Ford Shale...



> El Paso Corporation (NYSE: EP) reported today that as of December 31, 2009, it had 5.1 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe) of estimated total risked unproved resources , or 8.9 Tcfe unrisked, in addition to its 2.75 Tcfe of proved natural gas and oil reserves. The company's risked total unproved resources rose approximately 1.6 Tcfe, or 44 percent, from year-end 2008 levels. The majority of the increase was due to the addition of extensive drilling opportunities in the Haynesville Shale and Eagle Ford Shale programs




Petrohawk announces ramp up for eagleford


> Petrohawk Energy plans a similar ramp up in the Eagle Ford shale. The company drilled 24 wells at its Hawkville Field in 2009, and plans 60 more wells in 2010.


----------



## condog (8 February 2010)

Extremely interesting update to asx this morning

Especially the bit that reads 
"Aurora will continue to make releases as and when required and in accordance with ASX disclosure obligations. *However, with the increase in field activity currently under way and planned going forward*, Aurora intends to make regular releases updating the market but when appropriate rather than strictly on a weekly basis on a particular day."

I gather this is part of the Hilcorp accelleration of proceedings...

Easley #1H
The well has reached a depth of 11,350ft having run and cemented the intermediate casing string. This hole section is now drilling down to the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford Shale targets as a vertical pilot hole with a planned depth of 11,800ft. The pilot hole will then be logged before being sidetracked as a horizontal production well.
Weston #1H
Aurora has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp, that fracture stimulation operations commenced at the Weston #1H well on the 4th February. It is expected to take approximately two weeks to stimulate the 3,000 ft of horizontal liner in a number of stages. The fracture design is similar to that recently successfully applied to the Kennedy #1H well. Process equipment and flow lines have already been installed and the well will be flowed to sales during the clean up.
Kennedy #1H
The well continues to clean up with production performance in line with expectation after the recently reported IP rates of 4.4 mmscf/d and 1,130 bcpd. Production tubing will be installed in this well in due course.


----------



## condog (8 February 2010)

AUT hit a new 52wk high today at  41c.... I couldnt resist and bought some more.....  too much happening and its only looking better by the day..... and virtually none avaialable to buy....


----------



## Atlas79 (8 February 2010)

condog said:


> AUT hit a new 52wk high today at  41c.... I couldnt resist and bought some more.....  too much happening and its only looking better by the day..... and virtually none avaialable to buy....




I am new to this game but this is the first time I have seen a share depth like this, with so many buyers lined up and so few sellers. What happens to the price if for a little while no one is willing to sell?

(Disc: holding AUT.)


----------



## condog (8 February 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> I am new to this game but this is the first time I have seen a share depth like this, with so many buyers lined up and so few sellers. What happens to the price if for a little while no one is willing to sell?




Sellers can ask what they want and if buyers want them they will have to pay it.... but in reality sellers will only get a sale if they are in the ball park of what buyers want to pay..... In short the price should keep stepping up...whilever there is such an imbalance...


----------



## condog (9 February 2010)

From Pioneer report on seeking alpha ....Pioneer are extremely up beat about thier current and future prospects int he Eagle Ford Shale..




> We expect to drill up to 1750 locations on that, and we’ll be ramping up to 14 rigs over the next three years in the Eagle Ford play which will significantly put it in the camp very similar to the Spraberry trend area, which will both drive the growth to double-digit group production growth starting in 2011......
> 
> ........We’ll be ramping up quarterly and expect to exceed 10% plus from fourth quarter 2009 to fourth quarter 2010, and then resuming to double-digit production growth in 2011 and beyond, especially with a number of locations we have in the Spraberry Trend area field and also in the Eagle ford Shale play..........
> 
> ...




Interestingly they have defined there play into three zones....with liquids, dry gas and condensate......... Pioneer are certainly one of the leaders in the data on Eagle Ford 



Above: Slide 13 - referenced below from report seeking alpha dated 3rd feb 2010


> Now turning to the next slide, slide 13, talking about Eagle Ford. Scott has already discussed the Eagle Ford in some detail when it comes to the joint venture. But suffice it to say, today we have two rigs running in the field. Today those wells are being drilled in DeWitt and Karnes Counties where we’re really focused on our liquids rich acreage. A substantial amount of our acreage is actually in the liquid-rich band shown here in the intermediate sections of the olive color in the central part of the Basin.
> 
> The joint venture activities are proceeding well as Scott mentioned and the result of which would be hopefully a significant ramp up in drilling in the second half of 2010 with a JV partner.
> 
> The two wells we’ve drilled so far in the field that were successes the Sinor number 5 and Sinor number 1 have given us a lot of confidence in terms of the kind of rate the wells can make, particularly the Sinor number 1 well, having been drilled toward what we would consider more of the dry gas window produced at the highest rate we’ve seen in the field for gas well, some 17 million cubic feet a day IP. That gives us a lot of confidence and even if we are drilling wells in the dry gas window, we feel like we can do so at rates that will be, you know, highly economic.





IMO AUT sits smack bang primarily on top of the belt that Pioneer is referrring to as there liquids zone...


----------



## condog (9 February 2010)

IMO AUT has leases over most that area identified in red below.... on the borders of Karnes, Live Oak and McMillan...being smack bang in the middle of Peioneers identified oil rich Window.....


*MIR can you cross check this....pls*



DYOR & Seek expert advice - I hold...


----------



## mir (9 February 2010)

condog agentm on the adi thread post 2203 has a map showing where sugar loaf is in karnes, border of live oak & bee heading in a north east direction loghorn & ipanema  surround  the sugarloaf area in a north east direction from live oak border (i think most of aut acres are in karnes).i do agree we are in the oil rich area for sure.i think there might be some brokers reports out on aut shortly interested to see how it stacks up to azz, i think i already know the answer.


----------



## Agentm (9 February 2010)

condog said:


> IMO AUT has leases over most that area identified in red below.... on the borders of Karnes, Live Oak and McMillan...being smack bang in the middle of Peioneers identified oil rich Window.....
> 
> 
> *MIR can you cross check this....pls*
> ...




condog

your giving aut territory equivalent to conoco..

if you can come up with lease agreements pointing to those regions then please post them condog..

its nothing like that really.. i can tell with my databases where most of their acreages are. if you look at the aut presentations you will see maps detailing roughly where they are..

they cant be specific as tcei holds vast tracts of acreages way beyond what aut has a hand in.. it very much something aut will not discuss

owning acreages like that and having little time on the leases is something investors need to keep mindful of imho.. we all do research and come up with different conclusions on things but you need to get a reality on acreages and mapping here big time

ipanema is a little tract around where the tcei pogue is drilled. its already tested the chalks and eagleford 

longhorn north of the ami.. going easterly.. i dont think they are all neatly in blocks imho they may be dispersed into a longer reach and mixed in with other leases with competitors.. but thats guessing..


----------



## condog (9 February 2010)

Ive probably made a grammatical area in the use of the word " most" 

Yeh its hard to get an exact and they would be interspersed amongst others, but using the only credible source available from this distance , which is the AUT invextor presentation and looking at how it overlaps the borders..... most there acerage is interspersed in the red area.....(not most the red area belonging to AUT) .....the point im trying to make is not the size, we all know that reasonably accurately , its the location..... which would appear to be prime oil window material....identified by pioneer.....

Any way its out there for discussion..... and cross referencing by other investors so go for it guys,......thats my understanding of it at this stage...

Im a bit busy kaching kaching on VIL at present .....


----------



## condog (10 February 2010)

I got pm'd about the horizontal drilling process

this video is pretty simplistic but may help
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y37XbMEDnXc&feature=player_embedded

ASF & I take no responsibility for the content or authenticity / safety of external links...

Hydraulic Fraccing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gvxFBvHRUY

A frac site for a gas well being done
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QefLQKLb5co

*And why its so inherintly risky*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1U5I7W2TuM

*And why they get paid so much*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5CEmmskyDk


----------



## condog (12 February 2010)

Forbes Energy contributes 2010 growth to Eagle Ford Shale


> Thursday, Feb 11, 2010
> Forbes Energy Services Ltd. .......... we expect to see gradual improvement throughout 2010, *driven largely by oil related activity and the growth of the Eagle Ford Shale play *in South Texas."




Above is From: your oil and gas news dot com

EOG plans to boost investment and leases in Eagle Ford Shale Play, targeting oil


> Feb 11th 2010
> Mark Papa, chairman and chief executive of EOG Resources, said ......that the company will invest most of its capital in oil-related projects.
> 
> Papa said the Haynesville and Bossier Shales--two natural gas-rich rock formations in Louisiana--would be "the largest single driver" behind the increase in natural gas output. The company plans to drill 70 Haynesville and Bossier wells this year.
> ...



From Wall Street Journal dot com


----------



## mir (12 February 2010)

condog i see you have been busy with vil . imo if every thing went to plan they should of finished fracs or close to by now,  so possible results early next week.i am hoping for even better results then kennedy because while drilling western they got flaring.i think that 2nd rig is still coming.


----------



## condog (12 February 2010)

mir said:


> condog i see you have been busy with vil . imo if every thing went to plan they should of finished fracs or close to by now,  so possible results early next week.i am hoping for even better results then kennedy because while drilling western they got flaring.i think that 2nd rig is still coming.




Thanks MIR thats a great update, very encouraging indeed......its pretty exciting at present in both AUT and VIL....the VIL thread is sapping my life, but VIL itself still has good to very good potential irrespective of the first well result?....

AUT looks good to go if they can get Weston online soon with a good result then start Morgan and Rancho...... thats pretty substantial income for development, when your free carried and small mcap, , then with the hilcorp express about to kick in big time plus the acerage its all looking very good indeed.....

ITs going to be a gradual build but if hilcorp kicks in big time its pretty easy to sea AUT, ADI streaming past AZZ as the no 1 and no 2 Aussie USA shale oil plays.... if that happens there will be a lot of brokers suddenly placing AUt and ADI on thier lists, doing analysis and placing reccomendations to clients....

Take a look at SEA and let me know what you think... I like it a lot...


----------



## adobee (15 February 2010)

some serious buying this morning pushes a break out .. is some news on the way that its going to see this one pop !?


----------



## condog (15 February 2010)

there will be consistent news on this one...

expect news on easley, kennedy update, weston, morgan and rancho over the next weeks and nonths....plus maybe a kowalick fix and a few more...


----------



## condog (16 February 2010)

Weston announcment must be absolutely imminent by now...... if it ads as much value to the company as Kennedy, expect AUT to be bumping around the 55c mark some time in the next month , straight on the back of that within a few weeks will hopefully be easely which is IMO the big one, should add that much value again.......

Morgan would then be around say 50-70 days from now and Rancho on the abck of that.....at say 60 -90 days possibly earlier..... so a very interesting 3 months for AUT, EKA and ADI in the Joint Venture...

AUT hit new 12 mth high as did all the JVP's yesterday on anticipation / speculation of a weston announcment, so stay tuned for more action in comeing days, and the announcment.....  Kennedy flowed at 10mmcfd on 8 stages so hopefully Weston can co 15+mmcfd

AUT share of that is 20%....$15,000+ gross per day = $5.5M+ pa. gross, add easly, morgan and ranch to that and you might start to see why its rising so quickly....up 48% in 2 months so far...


----------



## condog (16 February 2010)

This is really rough but worth considering...

AUT currently priced at yesterdays high of 44.5c
After Kowalick and on the anticipation of Kennedy it was priced at roughly 30c 

Thats an increase of 48%

Based on that its now anticipating two well results, Easly and Weston

IMO all three are already massively underpriced based on anticipated results....

If those two come through with say equivelent to Kennedy and we are anticipating two more well announcments eg Morgan and Rancho one could expect a similar increase in value, possibly slightly more on the back of two wells equal to or better then KEnnedy....

So base case scenario IMO in say 60 days is 148%* 44.5 = New High of 65c...


*Warning - all other factors being equal - eg oil prices, exchange rates, market sentiment etc.....Its a very crude projection, not a valuations so dont use it as such..... ASF and I take no responsibility for this crude amatuer projection...DYOR and do not make decisions based on it...learn from it or discuss it only....*


----------



## condog (17 February 2010)

ADI ripped out a new 52 week high again today....AUT almost got there again.... IMO anyone selling right now either desperately needs the money or is about to miss the boat....

With two well announcments absolutely imminent and two more wells to start on the back of them ....upside potential is rediculous....on all three JVP's ...

This is opinion only, DYOR


----------



## condog (19 February 2010)

Getting a very nice kick along, and hence why they are calling it the hilcorp express 

4.5 months 400%





disc - i hold DYOR


----------



## condog (19 February 2010)

Fantastic news with Weston successfully completed and flowing to sales
Easily has intercepted both the chalk and eagle ford and is ready to be drilled horizontally and fracced.


----------



## condog (20 February 2010)

The Eagle Ford is amazingly sought after right now, making AU?T a very hot prospect not only with is current wells coming online and being drilled and planned through JV's, but with its acerage.

Chesapeake amongst other i and other have posted in the ADI thread is chacing acerage at an amazing rate.


> Chesapeake now has six plays after the addition of Eagle Ford and Bossier. It has leased 600,000 acres with an additional target of 400,000 acres.



This is a staggering acquisition and certainly now ranks up there as one of the biggest , and one of the quickest.


----------



## condog (20 February 2010)

By my calcs Easily is around 32 days since spudded. On my calcs expect updates on frac stages soon and completion in around 2 weeks. Could be wrong, but that will be reasonably close. 

Easly should be the most productive so far and on top of anticipate good Weston results on monday might possibly  begin to add major value to AUT.


----------



## condog (22 February 2010)

AUT - posted a new new high this morning at 47c on speculation about Weston flow data.....

Very encouraging for all JV AMI partenrs at present.


----------



## jancha (22 February 2010)

condog said:


> AUT - posted a new new high this morning at 47c on speculation about Weston flow data.....
> 
> Very encouraging for all JV AMI partenrs at present.




900 units @ 47c is hardly much to get excited about but things do look positive and heading in the right direction.


----------



## mir (22 February 2010)

condog i see you would have some spare cash now , could it be you making the new highs ? should get a brokers report on aut in a week or so, will make good reading.


----------



## condog (22 February 2010)

mir said:


> condog i see you would have some spare cash now , could it be you making the new highs ? should get a brokers report on aut in a week or so, will make good reading.




Thats plain cynical. but funny.

Which broker are you expecting to put out a report. I noticed H's reckon they will update the ADI one soon. But whos got one on AUT. Ive run my calcs and they are pretty impressive assumming Weston is good and others come on line..


----------



## condog (22 February 2010)

jancha said:


> 900 units @ 47c is hardly much to get excited about but things do look positive and heading in the right direction.




Thats irrellevant is comfortably holding 46c, got to 47c new high up from 44.5c. Plenty of buyers. And good outlook... not sure what your getting at.....but anyway

I bought most mine around 30c so doing quiet nicely on this one. But dont expect to be seeling this in the short or medium term.


----------



## condog (24 February 2010)

Excellent results out for Weston today. Totally overlooked by market. Should improve with tubing in a few weeks. Easley announcments soonish. Plus possibly a morgan and ranch timeline.

Longhorn and Ipanema not to far off as well. AUT free carried for all.


----------



## condog (28 February 2010)

Be sure to be watching this the next few weeks. 30 day flow rates for Kennedy, Easily success? , Spudding possibly of Ranch & or Morgan. Clean up rates From Weston. Lots happening. The next 4-10 weeks for this stock are incredible.


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2010)

condog said:


> Be sure to be watching this the next few weeks. 30 day flow rates for Kennedy, Easily success? , Spudding possibly of Ranch & or Morgan. Clean up rates From Weston. Lots happening. The next 4-10 weeks for this stock are incredible.



condog, I'd really like to see a summary of your holdings and your trades. You seem to have quite a few irons in the fire. I've previously recorded all buys and sells in my ASF Blog too keep people informed of what I am ramping and my own personal holdings and action. I'm out of the market taking a break so 100% cash now and nothing to report. Would like to see a 'condog blog' if you had the time, and were game. Cheers.


----------



## condog (2 March 2010)

BP stakes a claim on the Eagleford through JV with Lewis. Predicted to boost lewis from 1 rig to 4.

From online.wsj.com 


> BP PLC is expected to announce Tuesday an expansion of its U.S. shale-gas operations through a joint-venture deal in Texas with closely held Lewis Energy Group valued at least $160 million, people familiar with the situation said.
> 
> BP's move is the latest in a string of big deals that have brought major oil companies into U.S. shale gas--a significant new resource that is transforming the energy industry.
> 
> BP will take a 50% stake in 80,000 acres of the Eagle Ford Shale play in the southeastern part of Texas held by Lewis Energy at a price of $4,000 to $4,500 an acre, said one of the people. The two companies are already running one drilling rig on the license and could be running four rigs by the end of the year, another person said.


----------



## prgudula (3 March 2010)

3rd March 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement
SUGARLOAF OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas ("Aurora") is pleased to provide the following update to the market on operations within the Sugarloaf AMI.
Morgan #1H - Aurora has been advised by the operator Hilcorp Energy ("Hilcorp") that the second farm in well within the Sugarloaf AMI, the Morgan #1H well, was spudded on Friday, 26th February (US CST). The well is located approximately 5 km North West of the Easley #1H well and is expected to take approximately 6 weeks to drill to TD. The well design includes a vertical pilot hole prior to drilling a horizontal section that will access both the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford horizons following fracture stimulation.
Easley #1H - As at 0730 hrs on 2 March 2010 (US CST) the well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,535 ft (MD) with approximately 2,800 ft of horizontal section now having been drilled within the reservoir. Elevated gas readings have been observed since penetrating the reservoir.
Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H - Both wells continue to produce to sales in line with expectation. Production tubing has yet to be installed in either well and further updates on production rates will be provided once this has occurred and stable rates have been established.
ASX participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Aurora (ASX:AUT) – 20% (pre-farmout)
Adelphi (ASX:ADI) – 20% (pre-farmout)
Eureka (ASX:EKA) – 12.5% (pre-farmout)
Aurora also participates as a 50% WI holder in a larger area made up of an additional ~ 27,000 acres within the Sugarkane Field adjacent to Sugarloaf. Aurora is the only listed participant in these areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman
Technical information contained in this report in relation to the Sugarloaf project and Sugarkane field was compiled by Aurora from information provided by the project operator and reviewed by I L Lusted, BSc (Hons), SPE, a Director of Aurora who has had more than 15 years experience in the practice of petroleum engineering. Mr. Lusted consents to the inclusion in this report of the information in the form and context in which it appears.


----------



## condog (3 March 2010)

Yep good news all round

Morgan started, Easely half the horizontal done, Kennedy and Weston still flowing via casing to sales, neither on tubing.

4 more wells for AUT on Lh and Ipnm 

All looking very good indeed. Cannot believe they didnt all add 10-20% or more today on that news. Morgan alone and Easely so close are good signs.


----------



## Bigukraine (3 March 2010)

kennas said:


> condog, I'd really like to see a summary of your holdings and your trades. You seem to have quite a few irons in the fire. I've previously recorded all buys and sells in my ASF Blog too keep people informed of what I am ramping and my own personal holdings and action. I'm out of the market taking a break so 100% cash now and nothing to report. Would like to see a 'condog blog' if you had the time, and were game. Cheers.




good to see condog was quick to reply to your post kennas ps good to see someone keeping it real amid all the noise out there


----------



## Sdajii (3 March 2010)

condog said:


> Yep good news all round
> 
> Morgan started, Easely half the horizontal done, Kennedy and Weston still flowing via casing to sales, neither on tubing.
> 
> ...




Do you have any guesses as to why they didn't all go up? Things have been looking fairly good to me over the last few days, but prices have dropped about 10-15% for ADI, EKA and AUT over the last 10 or 11 days.

Maybe the hype pushed things up too high or too soon and more realistic prices are appearing, or maybe people are just feeling a little too risk averse to get involved. I don't know, I'm just throwing baseless ideas up, but would love to hear something more informed.

Disclosure: I hold ADI, but no AUT (yet?)


----------



## condog (3 March 2010)

Sdajii - the market moves in mysterious ways.

This stock is not on the radar of the big movers and shakers and they have not done themselves a good job of marketing themselves to investors, so they are still largely unknown. As such lack of understanding leads to lack of confidence, so imo any run will be followed by consolidation to build confidence before the next run. 2 weeks ago the market took a good few days to respond to good news, and it now has two lots of good news been ignored under its belt, so I expect some upward pressure will now start creeping in over coming days. Could be wrong so DYOR


----------



## condog (3 March 2010)

Very conservative but good report put out by pattersons on AUt today. Target 68c with review upwards likely in june / july. Thanks to MIR


----------



## rock86 (3 March 2010)

condog said:


> Very conservative but good report put out by pattersons on AUt today. Target 68c with review upwards likely in june / july. Thanks to MIR




Way to conservative IMO, with 3 new wells finished and producing by then I'd be expecting ADI to be more closer (probably greater) to that target. With AUT's additional acreage, they'll be past that figure maybe when Easley has it's flow rate reported


----------



## condog (4 March 2010)

rock86 said:


> Way to conservative IMO, with 3 new wells finished and producing by then I'd be expecting ADI to be more closer (probably greater) to that target. With AUT's additional acreage, they'll be past that figure maybe when Easley has it's flow rate reported




I agree - i tend to see most these conservative reports like this one as my worst outcome imo.  Not saying all are low ball. But imo this one is.


----------



## Sdajii (4 March 2010)

It seems surprising to me that something like this can remain under the radar for so long. If what you (and several others, go check agentm's posts in the ADI thread!) say is true (and I am guessing it is), it seems like just two or three highly cashed up people with a considerable amount of knowledge of oil drilling knowledge would be accumulating at much higher prices that we are currently seeing...and I have no doubt that more than two or three such people exist. I wish I had a lot more understanding of oil production, not that I'm cashed up enough to put much more than a small blip on the share price, but it seems like a brilliant opportunity I have insufficient understanding of to jump too deeply into.

As you say, the market does some 'mysterious' things (sometimes I would use a less kind word than 'mysterious'  ).

What do you think the main risks are for AUT (and ADI/EKA, etc)? In my oil-naive eyes things seem to be going along wonderfully, and unless Texas passes as "No oil production in Texas" law, or terrorists destroy the rigs, I can't see much potential for problems, but that may just be because I am not sufficiently familiar with oil.


----------



## mir (4 March 2010)

sdajii I've been in aut & eka from day 1 so over 4 years & imo in the last month or two most of the risk has been taken out with two good results & hilcorp steaming head with 7 new wells for aut.


----------



## condog (5 March 2010)

As MIR said it has been significantly de risked as the two biggest risks are hitting dust, and running out of money. AUT seems to have both those bases pretty much covered.

However having said that there are still a lot of risks , and hence the high possible upside.

Obvious risks include, well damage / collapse, blowout, gas price collapes, oil price collapse, political risk (green legislation) etc. Most companies however would have a list almost as long as this if you truly assessed risk. 

By your comments you dont know a lot and might be best served learning a fair bit without investing, or by investing small amounts till you learn about these small cap exploreres oops  producers.


----------



## Sdajii (5 March 2010)

condog said:


> By your comments you dont know a lot and might be best served learning a fair bit without investing, or by investing small amounts till you learn about these small cap exploreres oops  producers.




Yep, I think "oil-naive" makes it pretty clear I'm no expert in this industry! I find it very interesting though, and as you suggest I'm investing relatively little while learning as much as I can 

The risks you list (equipment mishaps, price and currency issues and red tape) were what I had in mind, although I have little concept of the relative likelihood, particularly in terms of equipment. I don't want to waste your time with pathetic newbie questions, so is there a better way for me (or for you to get me) to learn about the chances of equipment failure and potential costs of fixing them/permanent loss of resources/timeframes of delay? I'd rather not unnecessarily drag it out of you.

I would have thought red tape was possible but reasonable unlikely to get in the way. I can't see the Texans suddenly banning methods which have been used for so long when the result would be the loss of so much income. Of course, if I'm being a complete noob-tard, point that out to me


----------



## condog (6 March 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Yep, I think "oil-naive" makes it pretty clear I'm no expert in this industry! I find it very interesting though, and as you suggest I'm investing relatively little while learning as much as I can
> 
> The risks you list (equipment mishaps, price and currency issues and red tape) were what I had in mind, although I have little concept of the relative likelihood, particularly in terms of equipment. I don't want to waste your time with pathetic newbie questions, so is there a better way for me (or for you to get me) to learn about the chances of equipment failure and potential costs of fixing them/permanent loss of resources/timeframes of delay? I'd rather not unnecessarily drag it out of you.
> 
> I would have thought red tape was possible but reasonable unlikely to get in the way. I can't see the Texans suddenly banning methods which have been used for so long when the result would be the loss of so much income. Of course, if I'm being a complete noob-tard, point that out to me




Anyone trying to place a probability on each risk is pseculating as there are just to many variables.

One of the magniificent de risk strategies for AUT is they are in the USA which is energy hungry, they are free carried for 10 wells in 2010, so if one or 2 stuff up they will survive, they have cash in bank and good upside which all reduces risk, they now look to have two wells up and running, with two more in the process. All this reduces risk with each step. The problem is as the risk reduces the price goes up lowering the return.


----------



## Ramblin Round (7 March 2010)

An outlaw on drilling in Texas ?!?! BWAHAHAHAHA................Yeah, that's on this list right after we outlaw the slaughter of cattle. :

Save the cows !!! Eat more........chicken ???  LoL...................


:jump:


The only risk I found left in this JVP is the risk of watching others make money and not me. So I bought into ADI. However DYOR and this is IMHO, but ADI was my first trade ever and I have been pleased so far. I didn't break the bank but still have enough shares to make handsome potential gains. This JVP play is a great starter for someone wanting to get their feet wet with trading. Slow, stable and not too aggressive yet still potentially profitable.

Being stateside on NASDAQ and not on the ASX, ADI was the only group obtainable by me in this JVP. Otherwise I would try to buy others but alas I cannot. (Just disclosing why I'm discussing ADI here in the AUT thread.)


----------



## condog (7 March 2010)

Hi Ramblin you should be drivin a ferrari by now ......whats happeining with the land men, havent they been out your way yet.

In regards to chicken and cows etc....that was my point but i didnt want to offend anyone from Texas if they read it. LOL 

 Oil comes before all else in texas.


----------



## mir (7 March 2010)

ramblin i thought that might be the case together with the quality posts by agentm on the adi thread.there should be a way to buy the other jvp, i can find out if you wish.


----------



## condog (10 March 2010)

Wells Fargo upgrades outlook for both Petrohawk and St Mary LAnd & Exploration , based soley on the success and potential of the Eagleford Shale.

this is a very serious tick of approval for the credibility of the Eagleford and its players.

From steetinsider.com on Google news - today 10th march 2010


----------



## condog (12 March 2010)

Exxon Mobil cam out and rated the Eagleford as a high priority for the next two years. 

Next weeek is likely to see news on easley and kennedy flows ????

Possibly an application for the forst longhorn well.


----------



## condog (18 March 2010)

good udate yesterday, ip rates not altered, on 7' casing still.

Easley to do 3000ft horizontal,

Morgan doing well.

Both about to be fracced

I guess this means Rancho starts asap and we should be waching for IP or LH application. 50% interst in those. so wath them closely, thats when AUT should begin to gap the other jvp's.


----------



## condog (30 March 2010)

AUT bumping off its highs again. Good technicals and fundamentals at present. No huge breakouts expected , but upside looks good imo.
Few sellers and disciplined holders and  buyers mounting dramatically this week.

Ive got my own xmas sp target of 81c - $1.38 from my own calcs. But do your own.

Right now AUT is sitting at just over half its value compared to ADI and EKA its JV partners when priced on a boe/EV basis. 

Its priced at around $1.80 / boe and with the Eagleford shaping up as a tremendous play with certainty of reserve, not found elsewhere thats looking imo incredibly discounted.

Many other small gas/oilers operate around $3.50-$5+ per boe reserve. 

Very happy to be holding. DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## Sdajii (30 March 2010)

AUT looking good lately! Well done to all holders! I hold EKA and ADI, but not AUT (yet?). I'm interested in your calculation of AUT being about half the price you would expect on a BOE basis vs ADI or EKA. I looked at the price targets for ADI thinking they were crazy, did my own, came up with a similar figure, and bought. I then heard that EKA was massively cheaper compared to ADI, did the figures, agreed, and bought up there too. However, unless my calculations are wrong (very possible) EKA is about half the price of ADI on a BOE basis (which I just can't understand! It looks like EKA is a mind-blowingly good deal at the moment, and surely I must be missing something, because the alternative is that most of the rest of the world is!). So, if AUT was half the price of ADI on a BOE basis, it would still be more expensive than EKA by the same measure. If it's cheaper than EKA right now I probably need to crunch some AUT numbers, but I'm already in pretty deep!


----------



## mir (30 March 2010)

sdajii 
I'm using post farmout figures
aut has 10000 net acres &220M shares , adi has 2300 net acres & 150M shares ,eka has 1450 net acres & 150M shares.

using petrohawk (blackhawk area which is just east of aut acres )figures of  500Mboe to 750Mboe for 53000 acres, imo  eka & aut share price is about right in value now.
i also did a rough calc on aut on hotcopper on 28-3-10 ,14.57 aut thread mir911.


----------



## mir (30 March 2010)

"imo eka & aut share price is about right in value now."
sorry what i meant was they both should be a lot higher in price but are about equal value against each other.


----------



## Sdajii (30 March 2010)

Ah, I see where you're coming from, makes sense, thanks for posting - I'm somewhat inclined to disagree, but I won't, because I'm sure you understand the situation better than I do. I seem to have a figure of about 220M shares in mind for ADI by the way. From what I can tell, all three look great at the moment.

This may be a stupid question, but could AUT's lower price be mostly reflecting the risk associated with holding more land, which will require more money to keep and develop, which means they may not be able to develop it until later or at all? Or having to get someone else in to drill, which would cut into the profits?


----------



## condog (30 March 2010)

mir i do not know how you come up with that calculation. 

Based on the most recent AUT preso, AUT was priced at about $1.67 per boe, while ADI was priced at $3.67 / boe.  or there abouts from memory.

This indicates on reserves AUt is basically less then half price compared to ADI.

If you then consider all the extra free carried wells AUT has from Hillcorp and the acerage lease vlaues, its almost impossible to say ADI is priced with any similarity to AUT.

Im happy to be proven wrong, but thats the way i see it at present.


----------



## mir (31 March 2010)

condog 
i never said adi was similarly priced to aut it was aut against eka i was referring to.
 imo aut share price should be about 2.5 times adi & 4 times eka (at the moment aut is nearly 4 times eka so imo about right, but a lot better value then adi).
i probably didn't explain it to well.


----------



## subi1 (31 March 2010)

mir said:


> condog
> i never said adi was similarly priced to aut it was aut against eka i was referring to.
> imo aut share price should be about 2.5 times adi & 4 times eka (at the moment aut is nearly 4 times eka so imo about right, but a lot better value then adi).
> i probably didn't explain it to well.




I am trying to work out whether to buy AUT  as i own ADI & EKA shares but the thing that bugs me is whether they will have to raise cash and how many extra shares they will have to issue.

From what I can see they will have to raise quite a bit to fund the Longhorn & Ipenema wells. Is this added to your calculations in the relative values of the partners?


----------



## mir (31 March 2010)

subi1
"From what I can see they will have to raise quite a bit to fund the Longhorn & Ipenema wells. Is this added to your calculations in the relative values of the partners? "

fair points, i get regular updates on whats going on & have asked the same questions & have been told they have it under control (if you look at their investor presentation on the 3-3-10 i think it is mentioned  in detail there).

i believe all along part of  aut strategy was to pick up as much of the prime acres as possible ,then to keep drilling to prove the resource. at the right time & price sell the resource . with whats going on in the area with the major oil companies, you would have to think they are half a chance.


----------



## Agentm (1 April 2010)

new permit 

turnbull vertical well 

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...blicQuery=Y&name=TURNBULL&univDocNo=486016408

starting to get interesting for aut right now.. imho way way under the radar

i think this opinion is roughly what pattersons thinks, not sure i understand their maths,, but imho its a start..

30 March 2010

12mth Rating

BUY

Price
A$ 0.83

Target Price
A$1.27

12m Total Return
52.7% *(52.7% on those figures??? surely a typo? 100% imho )*

serious upside here imho


----------



## condog (1 April 2010)

subi1 said:


> I am trying to work out whether to buy AUT  as i own ADI & EKA shares but the thing that bugs me is whether they will have to raise cash and how many extra shares they will have to issue.
> 
> From what I can see they will have to raise quite a bit to fund the Longhorn & Ipenema wells. Is this added to your calculations in the relative values of the partners?




Read the most recent preso its outlined in there. They state cash flow will fund the bulk of development, but thier may be need to raise some funds through either debt or other structures to fully develop or accellerate development.  I have had several discussions with them and they seem very aware of the need to look after loyal shareholders over other interested parties.

Any cR for accelleration of development is a long way off and possibly many multiples in sp as well.


----------



## condog (1 April 2010)

Agentm said:


> new permit
> 
> turnbull vertical well
> 
> ...




Agent ho long till you jump on board to take advantage of all these beautiful high interest free carried wells. hmmm me smells lots of liquids at longhorn. 

Seriously though Patersons calcs are very very heavily discounted and conservative imo. I see personally a lot more upside then pattersons.


----------



## condog (5 April 2010)

Courtesy of Agent
 - Turnbull drilling away , good news for AUT holders, which should very soon see the price gap established between AUT and its JVP's.


----------



## condog (5 April 2010)

Again courtesy of Agent
If hartleys value ADI at short term 45c and an unrisked  target of $1.88, then what would Hartleys value AUT at with all its extra free carried wells and reserves??

PAttersons had AUT valued at risked valuation of 68c on 3rd March and a lot has happened since then to imprve value, reduce risk and increase the valuaion. This equates to around $2.84 unrisked using Hartleys method . (This extrapolation  is rough so DYOR)


One things for sure using Pattersons 83c from 30th march, this from Hartlesy and the 68c on 3rd march for AUT. AUT is looking cheaper every day and every annopuncment imo. 




Thanks for the correction below Agent. Ta.


----------



## Agentm (5 April 2010)

the photo is rancho grande in the AMI acreages condog

this is the turnbull photo on the longhorn acreages


----------



## condog (7 April 2010)

Nice to see AUT hitting a new high of 48.5c yesterday. Well deserved and lots more likely imo . Not without risk but all looking good so far.


----------



## condog (8 April 2010)

Agent MIR - this diagram from EOG, like the Pioneer one put out in Dec on page 7 of this AUT thread, makes Longhorn look very prommising to be in the oil or liquids. 

Agent I think it was you said Longhorn streatches out to the North interspersed messly in amongst other leases. Got to be getting very wet up there comparred to Kennedy and Kowalick.

and those comments about the Chalks producing significant liquids as well is even better. Especially if they can tap a horizontal from the existing wells once they are depeleted.. Which will save time and $


----------



## lemontree (8 April 2010)

With a handful of "change in director interests" anouncements showing they are topping up on their shares in AUT. We can expect good news


----------



## AngusSmart (8 April 2010)

things are looking good. up 10c since i started watching last month.. did i read some chance of capital raising in there too? @ .19c? or was that from a while ago? or is it them converting their options to shares? perhaps waiting to sell some off if things head north?

i'm still yet to hold i was going to wait.. hopefully not too late now tho.


----------



## condog (8 April 2010)

That diagram above was provided by Agent who i failed to acknowledge and do appologise for.

Good day for AUT smashing into the 50s but still way too cheap. On the positive very few sellers and plenty of buyers stacking up with bigger quantities.  Looking good, imagine what its going to be like with a few more wells drilled and a few more fracs under its belt, plus some wells on production tubing.

The farmin with Hillcorp has so far been a stroke of genius, although i do want to see those fracs starting soon. Perhaps a secnd frac crew is needed.

Lemontree, its not just directors topping up . I topped mine up today selling some stale gumbies to boost my holdings. 50c looked ambitious months ago now it looks like freebies imo. The best 50c i ever spent.


----------



## Atlas79 (8 April 2010)

Where do you see the SP eventually headed Condog? How much upside is there in this? Eyeing this one off but for instance PCL is only 3c at the moment, with a possibly very interesting seismic report due out any day now for (potentially) a 5-10 bagger very quickly, then lots more upside down the track...


----------



## condog (9 April 2010)

Atalas put it this way

Pattersons have a short term target of 68c which they themselves said was heavily discounted and likely to rapidly change. Since then many things have changed for the better.

Since then Hartleys put out a report on ADI with ST target of 45c and unrisked $1.88, they also acknowledged that this was likely to change rapidly and had tremendous upside potential fromthese figures.

Oil & Gas is risky, but the eagleford and its fracs is proving too be tremendously reliable and removing a lot of that risk.

From the AUt Investor presentation when  ADI was at 17c and AUT at 24c ADI was priced at $3.67/boe and AUT was at half that. Making AUt worth roughly 48c to ADI 17c. Pluas AUT then has the value of extra free carried wells and thier potential revenue.

So at the time of that report AUt by my amatuer and rough calcs was worth 48c+ the free carried wells factored in at about 70% discount of 30% WI of roughly = $1-$3M per Well (take discounted average of 1.5M) * say 5 wells.
. At discounted PE of 8 that adds 5*1.5M*8 to the mcap. =$60M. At that time mcap was around $40M. so 2.5 * sp.

I came up with my risked discounted value of around 48c+2.5*24c= $1.08
A lot has happened since then. 
Using the above method, which is only one of the many ways to do it, if I now work out AUt relative to Hartleys latest report on ADI.
45c*2.8=$1.35 + the additional wells at 60c+ = discounted valuation of $1.95 imo by Dec 2010. So im hoping on a 3-5 bagger minimum by Dec 2010 from currnet prices.

As you can see from my calcs and relative to the Hartleys ADI this is discounted and risked. An unrisked I have not calcultaed, but relative to ADI it would be around $4+ imo. Unlikely to be achived but possible.

If however AUT do a cap raise for further drilling then this would not be achieved. If income starts flowing earlier then expected this may be over achieved. Its just my rough  calcs.

You only have to look at the major oil companies clammering all over each other to get into the Eagleford to know its worth investing in something there. The fact it has oil and gas is a bonus, with impending reliance on cleaner energies at some pooint.

Note i am not a broker or advisor. This is not advice or recomendation. They may contain errors or be innacurate. They do not reflect reality, and tak into account anyones circumstances. So Do your own research and definitely seek expert advice. Oil and Gas are notoriously risky investments. I hold and have a vested interest in price increases.


----------



## Ramblin Round (9 April 2010)

Yeah but are you accounting for how many people are going to hit the $1.00 mark and drop out like a bandit. A buck is usually a penny stockholders first goal. Will some shuck AUT and ADI and kick it back iunder that mark ? Thoughts ?


----------



## condog (9 April 2010)

yeh $1 will prove a resistance point no doubt, as it does for every stock that goes through it. But eventually $1 loses and value takes over if its there. imno its already there for AUT.


----------



## Agentm (9 April 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> Where do you see the SP eventually headed Condog? How much upside is there in this? Eyeing this one off but for instance PCL is only 3c at the moment, with a possibly very interesting seismic report due out any day now for (potentially) a 5-10 bagger very quickly, then lots more upside down the track...




atlas

i recommend you view the patterson report yourself and perhaps give us your opinion on it

oil shares can jump on reports, and in the case of the aut jvp and now with 2 in the AMI and one well in the extended acreages, once those wells are opened up a serious re rating will ensue

for me its a no brainer , with papa saying this is the biggest oil play in 40 years in the usa 


"We believe the South Texas Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil play will prove to be one of the most significant United States oil discoveries in the past 40 years," said Papa.

now papa smurf invested massive capital into this, taking over 500,000 acres up in the oil play.. and eog up until yesterday refused to comment on their play, but i think if you look at their initial presentation just on the eagleford, you would have to say the jvp and AUT have some serious upside as no one has given them any credibility thus far despite having two seriously excellent result on two very short laterals

look forward to your thoughts on this

dyor and all imho


----------



## Atlas79 (9 April 2010)

Shall certainly read more about this stock, thanks Condog for sharing your rough calcs (your disclaimer is noted, ty) and thanks too AgentM for the links.


----------



## condog (9 April 2010)

Atlas your welcome. Take a look back through this thread. I was right when i picked it months ago, thanks primarily to Agent putting it on my radar.

Ive researched this and have a very substantial holding both in dollars and %.  ITs not something i do lightly and have done significant research  on this stock.

I like it for a huge number of reasons similar to the other JVP's, but in particular, this one has better acerage , WI and is very well managed. But the single biggest factor is all those free carried wells.

One really nice thing that has happened since my purchase is Lonhorn looks clearly to be in the best part of the eagleford imo. In the  liquid zone with very good results all around it. another huge + is EOG stating this week they are getting sustantial result fro th chalks  which sit on top of the eagleford, effectivly giving each well double the capacity.

Enjoy your research and be sure to post your findings. sorry bout typos, puppy on lap.


----------



## condog (9 April 2010)

In the Haynesville Shale, Royal Dutch Shell signed a joint venture with EnCana (NYSE:ECA) to jointly develop acreage. *The joint venture will operate as many as 25 rigs in 2010*.


----------



## nioka (15 April 2010)

AUT certainly has been the little brother for ADI. Even on ASF with 5000 posts to only 184 on the AUT threads, probably because there was little difference in the stock and Agent held ADI and is the dominant poster. (The dominant poster because of his extensive research and the fact that he comes up with the news before any other source releases it).

However things are changing. Aurora has extensine areas leased and the new arrangement with Hillcorp is having those areas investigated. While ADI and AUT have only a 10% nett interest in the 20,000 acres of Sugarloaf, AUT has a bigger share of a bigger lease area.

I suggest that it is possible that AUT will become the big brother any time now. DYOR, I'm often wrong but the stock market seems to agree with me.


----------



## condog (16 April 2010)

Nioka Things will change now with AUT free carried wells progressing on Longhorn and Ipenema.

Even Agent owns AUT now.

On a bigger note the flows released are staggering, given the tiny fracs being done.

Kennedy #1H 

This well was the first to be brought on line following stimulation and has been on continuous production since 29 January 2010, it has not yet had production tubing installed.

Q1 2010 gross production - 29/01/10 to 31/03/10 (62 days)

Total Gas – 151 mmscf (average 2.44 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 31,383 bbls (average 506 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.12 mmscfe/d^

60 day gross production
Total Gas – 148 mmscf (average 2.47 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 30,825 bbls (average 514 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 9.26 mmscfe/d^


Weston

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator, Hilcorp Energy, that following a successful fracture stimulation of 3,000’ of horizontal section...

Q1 2010 gross production - 16/02/10 to 31/03/10 (44 days)
Total Gas – 253 mmscf (average 5.76 mmscf/d)
Total Condensate – 16,648 bbls (average 378 bpd)
Average Daily Gas Equivalent – 11.74 mmscfe/d^


This last data section is copied from Agents post in ADI thread. 

Wonder if hilcorp might now consider trying a 24 - 32 stage frac some time soon. Similar to those being done in the Bakken. Perhaps the geology in the Eagleford doesnt lend itself to such huge fracs.  

Irrespective Easely, Rancho, Morgan could turn out to be relative gold mines, and the high interest AUT longhorn 3wells may add rediculous cash to AUT coffers.

AUT = good   imo D


----------



## Agentm (16 April 2010)

have to agree

with all these turnbull wells going in, you would have to say the value for the aut acreages will come into play soon

i have put a good size investment down and considering making a even larger stake in the very near future

look at the intensity of these permits hilcorp are putting out

these wells are taking less than 3 weeks to drill according to my calculations, amazing successes

hilcorp are absolutely impressing me no end atm


----------



## Agentm (16 April 2010)

this is the massive turnbull well being drilled by hilcorp

these rigs are getting through the whole completion in about 3 weeks, which as absolutely staggering..



this is what john stewart had to say and i agree with him here big time

Jon Stewart, Aurora Executive Chairman commented that “With the
operational progress reported earlier this week, *Aurora will shortly have 4 new horizontal wells ready to be fracced in addition to our 2 existing wells on production.* *Our Operator is doing an outstanding job with the time to drill wells being dramatically reduced. Reduced drilling times translates to reduced costs and this will be extremely important in a project of this size.* The production results from our first two wells support our contention that our acreage is amongst the best in what *the industry believes to be the most economic shale play in the USA today.*“


----------



## Slipperz (16 April 2010)

AUT has had the best week of the eagleford drillers with a steady eddie 0%. AZZ has suffered through B-29 selling down. US industrial production is rising, gas prices are inching up,  completed well flow rates are excellent, Hillcorp is drilling away with awesome efficiency, wells are backing up for fracccing and the share price is going nowhere. 
Am I missing something here or is everyone else?


----------



## condog (18 April 2010)

Thanks Agent for your update



Slipperz said:


> Am I missing something here or is everyone else?




No consolidation, waiting on frac jobs and more data. Certainly looking cheaper and cheaper imo and a great accumulation opportunity. 
The more we get progress and the longer sp stays subdued the better, as it provides imo (but this is not advice or reccomendation) a very opportunistic buying opportunity.


----------



## Slipperz (18 April 2010)

condog said:


> Thanks Agent for your update
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I am already overweight on AUT. Moved out of AZZ a fortnight back as it was looking a bit overcooked and quite honestly there is more happening in terms of drilling, and  at a faster pace with Hillcorp's involvement for AUT.

Might take a few out of the christmas stocking for some champagne :alcohol:


----------



## condog (18 April 2010)

Your timing was spot on. I did a similar thing a few months ago with AZZ holdings to AUt and in that time have seen AZZ remain relatively stagnant whilst my AUt holdings in the same time are up over 65%

Not much to regret there.

I think your spot on with your assessment of Hilcorps involvement causing a massive accelleration both in real and relative terms. That graph will look even more interesting in 4-6 months time once some more fracs are done. There will be a few JVP share holders kicking themselves for not having predicted whats clearly transpiring right now. 

Is it not crystal clear that Hilcorp has only just begun, it has casued a doubling in ADI price, AUt price. 


AUT is about to be free carried for almost double that relative value that Hilcorp has already added. 

Do the maths. It doesnt take einstien to see whats happeing and about to happen imo.

whilst this is in no way a reccomendation its aimed at getting investors to question thier own strategies. If you owned ADI or EKA right now, its because you believe hilcorp JV will bring value theres no other reason. Thus if thats the overwhelming logic what on earth is going to happen now with these extra free carried wells for AUT.

If i held ADI , EKA i know what id be doing right now. In 6 months the story might be dramatically different, but right now AUT looks good imo. 

I picked it a few months ago against the grain and right now its with the grain and a no brainer imo.

Pattersons and Hartleys have both given fantastic reports on the JVP's and valued them significantly above current prices. the unrisked valuations are looking better and better , sooner and sooner imo with the way hilcorp is proceeding.


----------



## condog (19 April 2010)

Hilcorp has applications in for all three turnbul wells. My assumption is they are on Longhorn, but cannot be certain on that.

Things are progressing very well. 

If AUT almost doubled in price on Weston, and Kennedy results, one wonders where we will be, when Rancho, Easley, Morgan, Kowalick (fix or redrill) and the three turnbulls are done. 

Timeline my guess is Morgan, Rancho, Easley, T1, T2, T3 take 45 days each on average.  Gives 9 months or less and we have hopefully 6 more highly productive wells.

At that rate hopefully at least 3 times current sp and then some. Many ways to do the cals, but thats it in a nutshell.


----------



## Agentm (19 April 2010)

condog said:


> Hilcorp has applications in for all three turnbul wells. My assumption is they are on Longhorn, but cannot be certain on that.
> 
> Things are progressing very well.
> 
> ...




a few polite corrections

hilcorp are doing a smashing job, drilling in karnes and now in gonzales

in terms of timing,, 19 days per well condog..

in terms of wells being drilled..

turnbull 1 is well advanced nearly complete

turnbull 2 has a rig on it

btw there are frac crews all over the place atm on the ami


----------



## condog (19 April 2010)

being conservative in my guestimates due to ramp allegations elsewhere.

Points taken, at 45 days allows for drill and frac on average ???

What im really eluding to is big multiples in short spaces of time.

i had heard fracs where on site, but all unconfirmed till you get me some photos. lol

On another note some nice updates in the preso for new investors and conferences.

Not as up to date as we need, but it will market it nicely and add value.


----------



## condog (20 April 2010)

Some wonderful slides in yesterdays new preso that paint a fantastic story going forward for AUT. Nothing too new to those with fingers on the pulse, but great update that might see more brokers able to sell it to clients.







I particularly like this one below as it highlights what we have been trying to identify . We knew the majority of AUt was in the condensate zone, but it was unclear how much of longhorn is / was in the oil zone. 


This paints an amazing story below. If AUt rocked on the back of Kennedy and Weston and has subsequently only really increased less then 10% on the back of everything else, What do you think might happen on the back of 7 more fracs, plus the Kowalick re-drill or fix up. imo we are looking at a minimum of a 4 multiple of the growth from 26c to 50c whcih equates to around a $1 sp growth.

There was another chart i will get and attach for the frac times which showes the drilling in less then 20 days now under hilcorp. Fracs then take about 3 weeks for IP and & weeks to get 30 day averages. But they are from a ghant chart perspective simultaneous beyond 20 days per rig. So potentially these 8 wells many of which are drilled could all be done in a matter of around 3 months depending on how many frac crews they get. Conservatively lets allow 6plus months. Thats a wonderful potential sp multiple.





Turnbull 3 has also been approved.
IMO - AUT is derisking with every development and is now the most likely upside, highest multiple and lowest risk of all my small cap stocks. I took the opportunity to sell many stagnent stocks in the past few days and top up on AUT.


----------



## condog (20 April 2010)

Drilling times mentioned above. Easely was delayed hence big blue line, but look at the impressive drill times being achieved. Note also 4 fracs sitting there waiting to be done = imminent sp increase in my opinion.


----------



## Agentm (20 April 2010)

condog said:


> Drilling times mentioned above. Easely was delayed hence big blue line, but look at the impressive drill times being achieved. Note also 4 fracs sitting there waiting to be done = imminent sp increase in my opinion.
> 
> View attachment 36788





your forgetting a very important detail which i have been pointing out, the turnbull 2 site has a massive rig sitting on it, and imho they dont place rigs on sites unless its going to do something,,

add turnbull 2 to the list please..

aut has easley, morgan, rancho grande, turnbull 1 and turnbull 2 

thats 5 wells about to come on line..

and consider also there is a permit for turnbull 3 there also, should that be a longhorn well also then that rig needs only move 100 feet and drill that one..

imho aut and the entire jvp are way under the radar right now


----------



## condog (20 April 2010)

Agent is your camera broken?

I was hoping for some pics soon of frac crews all over morgan and easily.


----------



## Miner (20 April 2010)

condog said:


> Agent is your camera broken?
> 
> I was hoping for some pics soon of frac crews all over morgan and easily.




Condog
I hope you are following world news as well in addition to normal passion for stocks.

With volcano ashes flights to Europe and other places are grounded. 

As a side effect  I think Agentm's spy plane or satelite with cameras are working over time else where than Eagleford for a change


----------



## Agentm (20 April 2010)

condog said:


> Agent is your camera broken?
> 
> I was hoping for some pics soon of frac crews all over morgan and easily.




i have a lot of regional photos but atm i am not inclined to post them, my view is that the info from the region is pretty much up to date now, and excellent in nature and without doubt making the case for some serious upside about to come up on this jvp..

imho when the jvp state there is an ongoing frac program about to happen, its spot on


----------



## condog (20 April 2010)

I thought After Weston AUT announced the frac crew had to leave the AMI  for 1 pre booked job of two wells, and then would return for continuous fraccing on behalf of hilcorp. 

I am certain now its returned and is currently fraccing morgan. In fact theres a few murmors of a second frac ready to go, not sure if they are are just ready for post morgan and the one crew or they have a second crew about to start.

If they do have a second frac crew then the drilling program will need ot be accellerated, or they will be twiddling thumbs in later 2010.


----------



## condog (22 April 2010)

Another good day for AUT and these should imo continue.

Its still only EV valued at $1.39 per 2c boe 

With estimated net sales at approx $50+ per boe the markets only priced in a  3% chance of meeting its 2c reserves. 

imo based on other oillys att this stage it should soon as it sures up production be operating at well in excess of 10%. Thats only opinion. 

At 10% of 2C sp shoiuld be approx $2.04 my my amatuer calcs. DYOR 

Note these are rough beer coaster cals.. so do noy make decisions based on this. Would be good is someone else would cross check these ta.

More conservatively , even at 5% it should be arond $1


----------



## mir (23 April 2010)

patersons upgrade AUT to 92c



RESEARCH NOTE ATTACHED

Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd    (AUT)        $0.53

Recommendation: BUY



Drilling Ahead in the Eagle Ford 

Investment Highlights

·                     Steady progress achieved in Hilcorp farm-in program. Local operator Hilcorp is making solid progress through its farm-in works, with 7 of the 10 farm-in commitments completed/underway. Progress to date has included the successful stimulation and flow of Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H wells and the current drilling/frac operations at Easley #1H (awaiting frac), Morgan #1H (frac underway), Rancho Grande #1H (awaiting frac) and Turnbull #1H (drilling works underway). Remaining farm-in works include a further 2 wells on the Longhorn AMI and a 1 on the Ipanema AMI. Completion of the fully funded program will unlock substantial value, providing reserves definition and solid cash-flow. 

·                     Flow rates demonstrate productivity of the acreage. Production results from the Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H have de-risked the acreage with IP’s of 19.1mmscfe/d and 12.1mmscfe/d, respectively, at a 12:1 ratio and 1.25 calorific content. The subsequent 30 and 60-day production rates are indicative of a highly productive shale, comparing well to regional averages.   Looking ahead, the JV is targeting completion over longer productive sections, averaging ~4,000ft, which should provide a higher flow rate and EUR per well. 

·                     Significant acreage position. AUT holds a post farm-out interest of 9,620 net acres across the Sugarloaf (10%WI), Longhorn (25%WI) and Ipanema (30%WI) Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI’s). In 2009 an independent assessment of the assets provided an estimated contingent resource which is equivalent to 185bcf of gas and 34mmbbls of condensate net to AUT on a post-farmout basis. 

·                     Regional activity drives value. Ongoing M&A activity, drilling and production results drive the value of the shale and AUT. Recent news includes Pioneer’s Handy Gas Unit #1H testing at 7.7mmscf/d and 2,030bcpd and entry of Shell and BP into the shale.  

·                     We maintain our BUY recommendation with a revised price target of $0.92/sh based on our risked assessment of a full field development across AUT’s 3 x AMI’s.


----------



## condog (23 April 2010)

MIR 

its a nice peice of info, but its still super conservative, giving only a 10% chance of 2c reserves. I personaly think Eagleford deserves a risk premium of far more then 10% now. Especially with hilcorp on board. 

But i spose it will draw a crowd anyway at almost half its fully risked valuation.


----------



## Slipperz (23 April 2010)

Ahhh I'm loving this outfit. 

They have a major drilling ten wells to prove up their acreages for free that will provide a tidy revenue stream for future drilling.

The eagleford is still running close to 100% success rate for drilling across a huge swath of Texas so you would have to be an institutional fund manager or retarded not to see that the risk is practically nil on drilling failure.

And the frac results are going to start cascading in soon week on week.

The sell queue is getting smaller and rightly so. You would need to be pressed for cash or flat out stupid to be selling AUT next week.

We're all going to make some serious cash in the next few months as well we should


----------



## lemontree (23 April 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Ahhh I'm loving this outfit.
> 
> They have a major drilling ten wells to prove up their acreages for free that will provide a tidy revenue stream for future drilling.
> 
> ...




I think either aussie investors are just more conservative or there is not enough exposure to the eagleford play here. Coverage by our media would do wonders for the sp imo. The presentation AUT had a week ago was a nice step for bringing in more awareness.


----------



## condog (23 April 2010)

Slipperz i love your post , its so honest, direct and true. Politically incorrect, but true.

Yes funnily enough the eagledford has somewhere around a 100% success rate yet AUT is priced at 3-5% of 2C reserves depending how you calculate it.

At 10% it would be stupidly cheap, given the susccess rate. 

Im banking on the fact by the time we have 10 wells with say 9 successful and Kowalick resolution we should be sing a price upwards of 30-40% of 2C which is 6-9 times currents sp. Not a bad multiple. This will hopefully imo present me with a massive tax problem, which i will happily contract my accountant to sort out.

Ive been buying up the last week or so , selling other stock at profits losses and evens to grab more AUt before the frac results come through and get priced in. 

New high today, is always nice, not surprising and will imo soon be replaced. Sellers drying up nicely and buyers continually cueing up. Its now well and truly a case of if you want them you pay the price or your not getting them.

Anyone sellign clearly has no idea whats about to transpire in the next 60-90 days.


----------



## AngusSmart (24 April 2010)

Speaking of exit points... 

i've never actually sold shares before with a plan of exit.. and would love to set one for this stock.

having never had really any forms of exit before, let alone one with an oil company.. what are the best times to usually leave? and since its a 20% share, would a buy out be in the future??

things are looking very good! i'm doing similar things condog, and quiet happy with the progress i have made so far..

obviously also not looking at selling anytime soon, but what would be a good point to start looking at? i like to research into the why's before i do things!


----------



## Ramblin Round (24 April 2010)

Yes I'm also wondering what woud happen to shares if a buyout occurred. Small cap players like EUK, AZZ, AUT, ADI and the likes are all set up to sell out with a nice profit in the play that they are at. I would think merger before sell out, but either way....any advice from senior investors about mergers and aquisitions and what to do if such things happen ?


----------



## condog (24 April 2010)

Everybodies in a different boat. This is not advice as everyones circumstances are different.

For investors with a lot of money in it in aust , a buyout would suck, as youd trigger a massive capital gains tax event all in one year.' They would be wanting to hold on long term and sell down gradually starting after the 12 months and then sell enough each year to spend, or invest elsewhere without triggering a massive CGT event.

For smaller investors its really your call CGT, probably not an issue once you go past the 12 month mark. Depending on if your carrying losses forward CGT may not be an issue at all even within 12 months.

Certainly im aiming to hold this for the long term, whilever they are actively growing the company and will gradually sell a bit each year. I see at least imo 4-5 years really good growth in these leases, possibly up to 10 years depending on what well spacing they achieve. If they drill right down to one well per hundred acres i think we have a good decade just from this play alone.

It also depends how your structured for example are you in a family trust, company SMSF, husband and wif. Most people are individual holders . I find for indiduals that are married if you go into a play like this its sometimes best to buy half in your name and half in the wifes name, so you can sell twice as many with the same net tax effect, depending on other income of course.

At some point thes companies ROE and tapers and it becomes preferable to be looking to divest into some newer kids on the block again to look for the higher growth.

A buyout is always on the cards and unfortunately if it happens CGT might smack half your profits if its earlier then later.

For small holders who dont have enough to worry about CGT problems a philosophy i used successfully is as soon as you find a company that far better its time to start moving cash out. Or sometimes i sell my original capital when it doubles and leave the monopoly money invested. Reinvest your original capital inot something else.  

Theres too many options and circumstances to list. We cant give advice, but i hope some of this helps. Lets not take over the AUT thread with too much general investment discussion though.

Look at it this way - its a nice problem to have.


----------



## estseon (24 April 2010)

The JVPs are talking about scaling up in 2011. That would seem to be their game plan at the present.


----------



## WRONG'UN (24 April 2010)

There is always the possibility of future dividends. If they eventually pay out a reasonable portion of their profit as a dividend, the yield, based on the current sp, could be very attractive. It is conceivable that accumulated dividend payments could exceed the original investment.


----------



## condog (24 April 2010)

esteon - The ADI Q report indicated possible accelleration in 2010

wrongun - I hope like hell they dont pay dividends for a long time. They can grow that money far faster then we can, and being earnings from the US, they may or may not be franked - im not sure on that one. Last thing I want is unfranked dividends.  


Kepp the lot reinvest please, gro the co and then worry about dividends 5-10 years time.


----------



## condog (24 April 2010)

AUT - closed at 58c yesterday

I been saying since 27c its one of the best shares ive ever seen

The difference between now and 27c is its very much derisked, with two wells flowing to sales, hilcorp taken over as operator and setting a cracking pace.

This is not advice or a reccomendation but its my personal opinion and I will express it. Right now even at 58c this is imo rediculously cheap given where I think its headed.

Pattersons put out a very conservative valuation this week at 92c fully risked. In otherwords if it goes well as it looks like it will it should massively surpass that figure.

Fully risked I value it at $1.41 right now and very soon that will change as these fracs come on line, if they are successful.

Definitely seek expert advice and do your own research as gas and oil is risky. But the rewards are there for investors with the right risk tolerance.


----------



## condog (24 April 2010)

You can clearly see the effect of AUT development starting to take shape. Comparison to AZZ. AZZ is the bottom line


----------



## Slipperz (24 April 2010)

Another valuation factor in the AUT equation is the price of our product!

Natural gas futures are really starting to pick up. In their most recent presentation AUT stated that they expect to be receiving revenue by Q4 2010 once Hillcorp have recouped their drilling expenses.

Looking at the price of $5.46 for December delivery that equates to a 25% premium in less than 3 quarters.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html


----------



## condog (24 April 2010)

The key is up top, AUT is the dark Black line.

AUT compared to peers. Its pretty clear why ADI has had a tough few weeks, having jumped the gun a bit early in comparison. EKA is looking cheap at present. But for me AUT is right now the best bet by far.

AZZ may soon become the best bet, but they are very pricy and have to really sure up a few wells to justify thier price tag. 

For those that think AUT has now got too far ahead of ADI, i think this graph shows it really has only just caught up to ADI early dash and now we may see AUT start to establish its gap.


----------



## condog (25 April 2010)

For New investors interested AUT put out a new presentation on the ASX on 22nd April . The table below gives a good update of where things are at. However turnbull 1 has been drilling for a whil and Turnbull 3 application is approved. Morgan frac is almost complete. And Easley about to start.

All these wells are free carried to AUT with Hilcorp abel to recover costs from inital sales prior to distributing income. 10 free carried wells in total. All scheduled to be finished in 2010. Although at present it looks like they will be finished way ahead of schedule.


----------



## Slipperz (25 April 2010)

condog said:


> For New investors interested AUT put out a new presentation on the ASX on 22nd April . The table below gives a good update of where things are at. However turnbull 1 has been drilling for a whil and Turnbull 3 application is approved. Morgan frac is almost complete. And Easley about to start.
> 
> All these wells are free carried to AUT with Hilcorp abel to recover costs from inital sales prior to distributing income. 10 free carried wells in total. All scheduled to be finished in 2010. Although at present it looks like they will be finished way ahead of schedule.
> View attachment 36870





Morning Condog,

Firstly respect to all who have served and are currently serving in our armed forces, Lest We Forget.

Been doing a few back of the envelope equations regarding the next twelve months which are really going to be the the company making phase for AUT.

As I see it we are on the cusp of a really exciting two years or so for AUT.

Firstly when will Hillcorp have recovered their drilling expenses and revenues start flowing to the JVP?

In the latest presentation the company put a NPV of 16 million per well with oil priced at 70 dollars a barrel and gas at 4 dollars per mcf.

We need to add 20% valuation into that equation due to the rising price of oil and gas and given gas future prices and rising economic activity in the US and Asia I'm going to add another 5% premium on energy prices and add 25% to the NPV of each well and round it out to 20 million per well per annum.

20 mm pa / 365 days is $54 794 per day and with ten wells in production that equates to $547 940 per day.

70 million ( with the well costs estimated at 7 million per well including frac) by $547 940 is 127 days or a touch over four months.

With two wells already producing and more coming onstream early Q42010 should see revenues flowing to the JVP.

6 wells at 10% 12 million pa
2 wells at 25% 10 million pa
2 wells at 40% 16 million pa leaves us with 38 million pa income form the freecarry or 9.5 million per quarter.

Now we come to the capital requirement.

Again according to the most recent presentation the company plans to drill about 12 wells in 2011 or one a month which is in line with the drilling campaign so far this year.

That will require 28 million in capital for the first quarter 2011 less 9.5 million from completed wells leaving AUT about 18 million short for Q1 and then further capital requirements into Q2 until revenue increases to cover drilling costs.

I'd say we're looking at a cap raising of around 30 million. With the acreages proved up and flow rates confirmed by Q42010 shareprice should be around the 90c to dollar range as per the most recent Pattersons valuation which will give us dilution of 30 million shares or so bringing total shares on offer to around the 260 million mark.

Final valuation?

With no further need for dilution and holding 18% of 51 971 acres with an independently certified 2C resource estimate of 52 million barrels of oil equivalent...

52 million by 85 dollars is $4 420 000 000.00
divided by 18% is 795 600 000
divided by 260 million shares is $3.06 per share.

Shareholders should see this value realised in less than 10 quarters with the accelerated drilling program in 2012.

All IMHO and DYOR of course.


----------



## mir (25 April 2010)

slipperz
i think that was an excellent post & pretty spot on ,but i think the 52 mmboe is for AUT's 10000 net acres & not for the 52000 gross acres ,redo your calc on that if I'm correct.


----------



## rcm617 (25 April 2010)

That would work out at $17 per share. Another way at looking at the low EV/boe equivalent these companies are valued at.


----------



## gerkin02 (25 April 2010)

Mir,slipperz is using 52000 acres x 18%.

Re-read his post.

I have a reasonable holding in this stock but not nearly as much as I would like.

2010 should see a significant re-rating.

All the best.


----------



## condog (26 April 2010)

Slipperz, nice post and well constructed.

I would only add that all the capital required for drilling in 2011 is not required at once, its only required as each well is spudded. So cash flow will fund most. The very beginning of 2011 things might be a bit tight, but if we have 8-10 functioning wells at current rates , a debt facility could easily be arranged.

AUT have said they see minimal requirement for any capital raising and in all likely hood future development would be funded through cash flow and a debt facility if required. I wrote them an email and that was the response a few months ago. 

Got to say despite Pattersons and you aiming for 90 odd cents in 2010, im confident imo once we push through the $1 hurdle we should be up around $1.35  give or take 10-15c, if 9 of the wells are functional and a fix or redrill
 is used for Kowalick.

Sooner or later though with such high % of successfull wells this will get built into the price and we may see a surge well beyond that level.  I mean look at AZZ sitting over there with who knows how much production on 80c. It suddenly got re-rated of its own accord and cought everybody short.

One things for sure we are in for a very interesting and looks like being incredibly profitable next 3-24 months.


----------



## condog (26 April 2010)

The other way to work it out on your coaster is:

Theres roughly $1.6 Billion profit worth of boe liquids at $50 net per boe
And $600M worth of Gas at $3 net per Kcfg

Total $3.2B profit in the ground based on 2C reserves.

Takes say 15 years to extract and extract 80% of 2C reserves , reaching steady state optimal production levels in say 5 years from now.

So in 2010, 10 wells, 2011 - 25 wells, 2012 50 wells, 2013 75 wells Then 75 wells p.a. from then on roughly.

80% of $3.2B = $2.56B   /   15 years = 170M p.a. absolute minimum worst case scenario in my opinion. Remmebr this is based on $50 per boe and only extracting 80% of 2C over a long period of time.

At 170M p.a. profit, with PE of 12 = mcap over $2Billion which is 15x current share price. Taking around 4 years to reach that sp, and assuming AUT fails to develop new acerage elsewhere.

This assumes use of debt facility rather then CR for any capital required.

If they can manage to get 100% of 2C sooner then clearly we would be approaching a $3B mcap if PE was 12. About 23x current sp.

DYOR, there may be errors and misjudgments. Seek expert advice. This is very high risk and does not consider your circumstances.


----------



## Slipperz (26 April 2010)

Mir, if the 52mm BOE are in fact on AUT's acreages after farm out then it's pretty much a multiply by 5 equation on my valuation.

That's a pretty big number from where we are today!

And Condog I guess if all ten wells come in with good results by Q42010 there may be lenders willing to bridge AUT some finance to get the drilling campaign underway without any further dilution at all. 

It's really only that first quarter  2011 things are going to be a bit tight and once we have a few wells producing at 100% it's all blue skies as the drilling program accelerates.


----------



## nioka (26 April 2010)

I'm amused at all the calculations that show how much profit could be made, relating it as earnings available for a return to shareholders and suggesting an SP based on this calculation.

Take a deep breath and remember that oil prospectors are just that. Prospectors. They will apportion a percentage of earnings to pay shareholders to keep them happy but they will continue to allot a major portion of their available funds towards more and more prospecting. It will take one positive result after another for some of the suggested SP values to be achieved.


----------



## condog (26 April 2010)

Glad to entertain you Nokia - i been right so far. double+ my money so im not complaining and we only so far have two wells flowing. I was publicly bagged a few months ago for suggesting AUT was the pick of the Eagleford players. My what do you know, have a look at the graph above. 

Right now its still the pick by a very very big Margin. Geese even agents bought into it. And hes about as big an ADI fan as you can get.

Likewise im not to sure that Conoco, Exoon, Woodside, Pioneer, EOG, Petrohawk, shareholders all agree with you, or the hundreds of prosepctors that have been gobbled up in M&A activity by some of these. They all started as "prospectors".

Nokia from an ROE and fundamental value perspective, i truly hope they do not return any money via dividends. Certainly the way they are going so far, they can reinvest that money pre-tax and earn significantly more ROE on it then i can elsewhere. When it reaches the point where they cannot I wil have started a selling pattern and will move the cash elsewher.

So you keep luaghing, cause i know i am withthe profits that have rolled in so far.


----------



## WRONG'UN (26 April 2010)

Stick to your guns, Condog - at least you are presenting quantified figures that give some idea of what the future sp might be.
I'm not sure where your PE of 12 comes from, but looking at your suggested income stream of $170m pa for 15 years, the net present worth of this, assuming a discount rate of 8%, is 170m x 8.559 - ie an effective PE of 8.559, say 8.6.
This is well below 12, but still results in a healthy prognosis for the sp, without any consideration given to as yet unknown sources of future income.


----------



## condog (26 April 2010)

The income producing oil and gas sector on the ASX has a sector average PE of 21. The all ords has a PE of 11.2.   To be conservative i chose 12 for my calculations.  Could of picked 8, 10, 15 or any number. But gone with 12 as i prefer surpirses to the upside.


----------



## Slipperz (26 April 2010)

The reason I did my calc were twofold.

Primarily it was as I now have a very substantial holding I am looking at potential exit points.
Usually I swing trade over a period of a few weeks or months as a company is going into a growth phase.
For example EXT around this time last year, ORE and it's lithium deposit, AZZ from mid to late last year and recently UNS as it redomiciled to the US.
Now I am in with AUT and as has happened with all the aforementioned stocks they ran very hard then pulled back just as fast. So I attempted to extrapolate a bit of potential valuation of AUT from the company presentations to determine my exit strategy.
Initially my thinking was a quick profit as the frac results from the free carry came through and then on to greener pastures but having looked a little closer at the potential here I may hold on for a couple of years or more.
Oh and secondly it always stimulates a bit of healthy debate when you put a valuation on a message board which can help to expose a companys weaknesses.
If the companys greatest weakness is in being a prospector well happy days cos they seem to have put their prospecting pegs into some pretty choice acreages.


----------



## mir (26 April 2010)

gerkin02
the 52 million barrels is for the 10000 net acres & not the 52000 acres see page 21  on the aut presentation.
"52 million by 85 dollars is $4 420 000 000.00"
"With no further need for dilution and holding 18% of 51 971 acres with an independently certified 2C resource estimate of 52 million barrels of oil equivalent..."


Slipperz
this is what i posted on HC a few months ago.
I've just thrown my first beer coaster in the bin as i misunderstood the petrohawk presentation.here's my second attempt but the end figure doesn't alter much.
in the petrohawk presentation their krause #1h well(just to the east of our acreage) is 3025' in length & they give that an est. EUR: 500 - 750 Mboe per well(this is where i went wrong). our kennedy well with only 2000' in length had almost identical IP to krause .
our future wells are going to be at least 2 to 3 times the length of kennedy.so using 2 time kennedy length & the lower of the est. of 500 Mboe our future well could have est. EUR: 1000 Mboe per well(or 1MMboe). 

so based on aut 9659 net acres they need to drill about 100 wells (100 acre well spacings)at about est. EUR 1MMboe per well gives a total of 100 MMboe.

using $70 per barrel x 100MMboe = $7B
less 25% to land owners = $5.25B
less 15% costs? = $4.5B
less 100 wells at $10M ea to be generous $1B = $3.5B
less 30% tax = $2.45B 

so $2.45B div 220M shares gives AUT $11.13 a share.

or another way of looking at it.

at $10 per barrel in ground value 100 MMboe = $1B div 220M shares you get $4.54 per share.
if you use $20 per barrel you get $9.09 per share.
i hope this is more accurate.
comments welcome (I'm expecting to be shot down)
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbapeh.png


----------



## condog (26 April 2010)

mir said:


> gerkin02
> the 52 million barrels is for the 10000 net acres & not the 52000 acres see page 21  on the aut presentation.
> "52 million by 85 dollars is $4 420 000 000.00"
> "With no further need for dilution and holding 18% of 51 971 acres with an independently certified 2C resource estimate of 52 million barrels of oil equivalent..."
> ...




MIR / Slipperz / Wrongun- always good to read peoples valuations. Everybody does them so different, but the one thing in common here is so far no one has come out with a valuation that doesnt make the upside in aUT look massive. Every which way you calculate it they seem to be ready to rocket to unheard of valuations in the next months and year.  Asumming of course they have no big accidents, failures or dusters. All seem minimal, but with gas you never know.


----------



## estseon (26 April 2010)

Mir,

It's hopelessly difficult to do a valuation, though it is possible to put some potential figures together using figures suggested by the JVPs, guessing %recoverable, assuming average condensate/gas ratios, guessing 'in the ground' values for condensate and gas.

What is clear from S/L is that the condensate ratio can vary considerably.

I plugged in some figures after the Hartleys report assuming that Longhorn, Ipanema and S/l would average 250bbls per 1mmcfg, recoverable of about 1.75tcfge (edit - for S/L: the other acreages were just assumed to be scaled up) and $1.5/kcfg & $15/bbl and it came out a bit over AUD8 per share.

What we do know from the broker reports is that it is likely that a new reserves appraisal will be made later in the year.

At this stage, the potential for both companies is looking to be 10x. Perhaps more.

But, it's very early days. What we do not seem to have is any form of exploration risk. It's all completion risk and Hilcorp has made its money through re-completions - just look at the TRRC permits. The problem with Kennedy was most probably caused by the previous TCEI frac - looking back at the reports, the latest of the TCEI fracs had to be abandoned because of pressure levels. Kowalik was not designed for fraccing. Weston seems to have gone like clockwork. The drilling of Easley seems to have encountered the same problems encountered by TCEI with Weston. Hilcorp seems to have been able to know when to call a halt and not to lose equipment. The drilling of Morgan and Rancho seems to have gone without any melodrama - they just did it.

I've been invested in this project for over 4 years. We've seen nothing like this performance before.

Waiting another 6 - 12 months to get a proper feel for the financial potential is nothing. The more wells that they drill, the more news flow there will be. AUT was not previously suggesting more wells on S/L in 2010. That changed in just a few weeks. What has changed in that short time? We can only speculate. Expectations for the 2 wells in trend with Kowalik? New views on depletion rates?

Too early to think about exit strategies imo. Let the story unfold.


----------



## mir (26 April 2010)

estseon
good to see you back from holidays.
not 100% but i think hilcorp are using a different rig after easley so that could be why  "The drilling of Morgan and Rancho seems to have gone without any melodrama - they just did it.".


----------



## estseon (27 April 2010)

mir,

interesting comment re the rig. If so, that seems to further de-risk the operations.

Good to actually get back.

It is possibly reading too much into the EME RNSs re their two capital raisings but I get an impression that the 2nd one might have followed a decision on further drilling on S/L this year. EME certainly made a point about funding its 3% contribution.

Wishful thinking says that they might be getting quite excited about what they have seen.


----------



## Agentm (27 April 2010)

mir said:


> estseon
> good to see you back from holidays.
> not 100% but i think hilcorp are using a different rig after easley so that could be why  "The drilling of Morgan and Rancho seems to have gone without any melodrama - they just did it.".




turnbull started drilling on the 1st april, on the 25th april they were moving the rig off that location, imho demonstrating yet again hilcorp as a efficient and brilliant operator and further demonstrating that well costs are very much at their lowest common denominator.

 wont be long before turbull 2 is completed and there is a permit for a further well out there in turnbull 3

great story unfolding for aut..


----------



## condog (27 April 2010)

Agentm said:


> turnbull started drilling on the 1st april, on the 25th april they were moving the rig off that location, imho demonstrating yet again hilcorp as a efficient and brilliant operator and further demonstrating that well costs are very much at their lowest common denominator.
> 
> wont be long before turbull 2 is completed and there is a permit for a further well out there in turnbull 3
> 
> great story unfolding for aut..




24 days is fantastic, big cost savings if they keep going at this rate. Definitely need a second frac crew to play catch up to the drilling rig. 
This story is simply too good to be true at present. Holders must be extatic with progress.


----------



## Silhouetteau (27 April 2010)

Has anyone taken account for the $AUD in their valuations?

I'm still learning about the topic, however, all of AUT's NPV/well etc are in $USD, as US interest rates pick up (considering we're talking 10+ years here) surely that would mean greater revenue for AUT in $AUD?

Or does it not matter if it's all done in $US


----------



## condog (27 April 2010)

Silhouetteau said:


> Has anyone taken account for the $AUD in their valuations?
> 
> I'm still learning about the topic, however, all of AUT's NPV/well etc are in $USD, as US interest rates pick up (considering we're talking 10+ years here) surely that would mean greater revenue for AUT in $AUD?
> 
> Or does it not matter if it's all done in $US




It does matter and to get exact calcs yes you should factor it in. But given its so close and still some analysts are crowing about parity of the AUD, ive deliberately left it out of mine. If we stay at parity or below its an upside bonus.

Also given we are calculating predicted rather then actual earnings theres no real way to be precise enough to bother. We are mainly aiming to get a good guide of where it might head, rather then guess or go in blind. The comforting thing is usually if you post calcs you get hammered for tiny insignificant innacuracies, by people who cant be bothered or dont know how to calculate it out. That hasnt happened in here. Most are providing there own calcs and the one thing in common is they all seem to point to fantastic upside.


----------



## WRONG'UN (27 April 2010)

Condog is right, and, in any case, the fact that they are drilling in the USA minimises the risk to the margin, because the costs and the revenue are both in the same currency.


----------



## lemontree (27 April 2010)

Assuming the current buy orders are genuine AUT could be going for a run today, *fingers crossed* Either way, sellers are drying up


----------



## AngusSmart (27 April 2010)

I'm in the buy queue this morning.. but its jumped so much already! i might not get my price and have to adjust at this rate.. need to top up asap! 

I hope it will drop back below .60 today!! just to get my buy in!


----------



## Agentm (27 April 2010)

hilcorp have just nailed a 5000 foot lateral into the eagleford in record time with turnbull 1

cant see that news being a negative


----------



## Mactavish (27 April 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> I'm in the buy queue this morning.. but its jumped so much already! i might not get my price and have to adjust at this rate.. need to top up asap!
> 
> I hope it will drop back below .60 today!! just to get my buy in!




You cant have your cake and eat it at the same time. To be honest i wish i could of dumped my adi this morning to buy more aut at 61c... oh well


----------



## condog (27 April 2010)

AUT nailed a nice little 68c high,  currently consolidating, cant imagine who the day dreamers are selling at 64c, but good luck to them. Im sure the buyers wont be complaining in 3 months time.

Good times to AUT holders, enjoy the spoils.


----------



## AngusSmart (27 April 2010)

Mactavish said:


> You cant have your cake and eat it at the same time. To be honest i wish i could of dumped my adi this morning to buy more aut at 61c... oh well





haha i know, i'll be patient and watch is come back down after the rush in this morning.. pity Adi is on hold would be a good move..

i'll settle for .60c for now and see when it comes thru..


----------



## lemontree (27 April 2010)

condog said:


> AUT nailed a nice little 68c high,  currently consolidating, cant imagine who the day dreamers are selling at 64c, but good luck to them. Im sure the buyers wont be complaining in 3 months time.
> 
> Good times to AUT holders, enjoy the spoils.




Condog, maybe some daydreamers sold at 0.680c per share and are rebuying in after consolidation kicks in


----------



## jancha (27 April 2010)

lemontree said:


> Condog, maybe some daydreamers sold at 0.680c per share and are rebuying in after consolidation kicks in




Maybe but if it kept going above .68c when you sold what would you do then? 
Chase it & buy it back or just watch it keep going up in value until one day you look back and " Yep i had them shares but sold them at .68c & now they're $5.00 oh well "
Been there & done that. eg AOE 
This thread is starting to gain more popularity over ADI and with it's larger growth potential i would say it will stay that way.


----------



## lemontree (27 April 2010)

jancha said:


> Maybe but if it kept going above .68c when you sold what would you do then?
> Chase it & buy it back or just watch it keep going up in value until one day you look back and " Yep i had them shares but sold them at .68c & now they're $5.00 oh well "
> Been there & done that. eg AOE
> This thread is starting to gain more popularity over ADI and with it's larger growth potential i would say it will stay that way.




Things are always clear in hindsight but i didnt think the sp would keep climbing without any additional information e.g. frac results. Plus i'm certain i'd still be able to buy in below $5.00 haha


----------



## jancha (27 April 2010)

lemontree said:


> Things are always clear in hindsight but i didnt think the sp would keep climbing without any additional information e.g. frac results. Plus i'm certain i'd still be able to buy in below $5.00 haha




Inside imformation and factors could have seen sp rise higher than .68c.
 I've seen this happen before as many of you would.
You are talking in hindsight. 
What if you had sold at 60c & it never got below that price again & say tomorrow it opened up at 70c. Would you buy the same amount of back at 70c? 
Sure you could buy back under $5.00 but what would it have cost you in the meantime?


----------



## estseon (27 April 2010)

Looking at the news releases, which sometimes give precise dates for spudding and completion, but not always:

Easley - 55 days (3,000 ft lateral)
Morgan - 34 days (5,000 ft lateral) 
Rancho - 28 days (ditto)
Turnbull 1 - 26 days (ditto)


The AUT presentation (3rd March) suggested drilling of about 15 new wells in 2011. At their current rate of drilling using 2 rigs, 8 months of 2010 remaining and Turnbull 2 already under way, it looks as though they could complete the 2011 drilling by the end of this year. No wonder that EME & ADI are raising additional capital.


----------



## lemontree (27 April 2010)

jancha said:


> Inside imformation and factors could have seen sp rise higher than .68c.
> I've seen this happen before as many of you would.
> You are talking in hindsight.
> What if you had sold at 60c & it never got below that price again & say tomorrow it opened up at 70c. Would you buy the same amount of back at 70c?
> Sure you could buy back under $5.00 but what would it have cost you in the meantime?




I suppose you are correct, i am still a relatively new investor so i've much to learn! However in my own opinion it was worth consolidating my own gains for the time being


----------



## condog (27 April 2010)

esteon - i agree they are drilling at a frantic pace, wonder whether the drill rigs will be palmed off to other hilcorp acerage by july or whether they will stay and keep drilling. 

They need to pick up the pace of fracs with two crews if they want to advance proceedings, as its no use paying for 20 drills and only having 5 fracced. 

I really dont think AUT will cap raise unless there has been some monumental change of plans. I have contacted the company twice and both times they have confirmed they can most likely meet drilling schedule with no or extremely minimal capital requirements. Debt facility is preferable for any short term issues in 2011.


And personally hating CR's i see that in this particular case ROI is so great a CR could actually substantially benefit shareholders if timed correctly.


----------



## estseon (28 April 2010)

I'm guessing but the plans appear to have changed. That seems to be the message from EME and ADI capital raisings. EME made specific reference to funding of its 3% WI..

The talk is that ADI are courting a gilt-edged investor. Guesswork again, but if that is a holder for value and dividends its competitors could be attracted in making a whole new market for the shares. AUT shouldn't miss out on that. Besides which, AUT is expecting to raise more capital to meet its obligations of 25% on Longhorn and 30% on Ipanema once the free-carry wells are drilled and the programme ramps up. This seems to be developing into a whole new ballgame.

Hilcorp has shown no inclination to dither about - far from it. If the JVPs are talking about further drilling on S/L it doesn't look like the rigs moving off elsewhere. I don't quite agree about the fracs - they need a lot of water for a 5,000ft multi-stage - they need to drill for that and collect it before they can commence operations.


----------



## condog (28 April 2010)

estseon said:


> I don't quite agree about the fracs - they need a lot of water for a 5,000ft multi-stage - they need to drill for that and collect it before they can commence operations.




The water needs to be part of there plans, as i say, no use having 20 drilled and 5 fracced, its just wasted money on holding inventory. No different to unsold items sitting on shelves in the manufacturing or retail sectors. 

Its a game of very limited capital and we need every dollar of CAPEX and OPEX to produce dollars in revenue in the shortes space of time. doesnt matter as much right now , casue Hilcorp have paid, but once we are paying we will notice the difference when cashflow is tight. 

for the benefit of EKA, ADI, AUT future wells beyond the free carried ones need to be an almost seemless process of drill frac sell, with minimal waiting in between, or hilcorp will find itself with rigs sitting around and the 3 partners have no capital for CAPEX.


----------



## gerkin02 (28 April 2010)

Condog,
           It does matter now, as the quicker wells are put into production,the quicker Hilcorp is paid back,then AUT will start receiving revenue.

I think overall operations are going very well.

All the best.


----------



## condog (28 April 2010)

gerkin02 said:


> Condog,
> It does matter now, as the quicker wells are put into production,the quicker Hilcorp is paid back,then AUT will start receiving revenue.
> 
> I think overall operations are going very well.
> ...




Are you an english proffessor lol.   "as much" = as much = quiet as much as other times = perhaps more later = more pressing at a later date.

I didnt mean it literally, just relatively. No wonder everyone throws there gerkins away. Jus kidding . all good.


----------



## gerkin02 (28 April 2010)

Condog,

I prefer to read,interpret and create my own outcomes.

I enjoy your posts so continue to fuel peoples thoughts.

The eagleford has already created 7 digit gains for me courtesy of some very knowledgeable posters.

The play is still in its infancy and there is plenty more to come.

All the best.


----------



## condog (29 April 2010)

Good stuff gerkin, thats impressive gains. 

Are you into just the Aussie contingent of Eagleford players or do you hold some NYSE players as well.


----------



## condog (29 April 2010)

What will we have in store today for AUT. Turnbull 2 drilling away, Turnbull 3 being prepped for rig. Morgan frac and easily frac??

Certainly plenty of buyers and limited sellers. All looks good for 80c soon.  30 day morgan might be the impetus unless they surprise us and come out with Morgan IP's. 

Whats your take on the two hilcorp applications called Pilgrim Lake for gonzalles. Riggs heading there before turnbul 4 or Ipenema perhaps.


----------



## condog (29 April 2010)

Interesting Article and Analogy that could possibly apply to AUT

"How To Avoid Goldman and The PIIGS Debt Fiasco"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36827349/

The reason why as of this afternoon i only hold four stock and one is AUT.


----------



## Slipperz (29 April 2010)

It has been good to see AUT holding up well over the past two days. Volume today was very light. 

In other news natural gas prices for summer delivery in the US are up today which bodes well for future earnings.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html


----------



## condog (1 May 2010)

AUT had over$8.8M in cash last time i checked after they exercised the directors oppies. 

They should be good to get through the current drilling program without dilution in my opinion. This is only opinion. 

MD says they have deliberately structured the farmin to avouid any further dilution prior to cash flowing sufficintly to sustain fiurther drilling operations. 

At 10%, 25% and 40% interst well costs would be around $600K, $1.5M & $2.4M depending which acerage was drilled post free carried wells. 
Any accelleration in the AMI at a mere $600K per well could easily be met. 

Kennedy and Weston will soon be flowing cash, I estimate around June. Morgan in August to october and Easily October to Novemebr, assuming flows are in line with expectations.

So technically we could handle an extra well in Longhorn and and several extra wells in the AMI in 2010 without any need in my opinion for dilution.

15 Wells planned for 2011, but we need to see where prior to knowing what capital is required. If they are all in the aMI it should easily be met. Too many in Longhorn or Ipenema would be an issue.


----------



## Slipperz (1 May 2010)

condog said:


> AUT had over$8.8M in cash last time i checked after they exercised the directors oppies.
> 
> They should be good to get through the current drilling program without dilution in my opinion. This is only opinion.
> 
> ...




It all depends on the drilling schedule in early 2010 and results from the free carried wells soon to come online.

Personally I wouldn't be averse as a shareholder to a little dilution to grease the wheels of the program in 2010 but if it can be done as you have inferred condog on revenues well all the better.

Reading a few posts from some pretty disgruntled ADI holders who were not offered a buy into the cap raising and have seen some heavy dilution for a measly  5.5 million in the bank makes me hope if a raising is done it will be in the latter part of the year when some more value has been added by further derisking of our acreages.

Quarterly made for pretty good reading and the cash position looks strong enough for the next quarter or two until some revenues start to flow through so we'll have to sit tight and see how it plays out I guess.

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2010/AUT20100430.pdf


----------



## Agentm (1 May 2010)

Slipperz said:


> It all depends on the drilling schedule in early 2010 and results from the free carried wells soon to come online.
> 
> Personally I wouldn't be averse as a shareholder to a little dilution to grease the wheels of the program in 2010 but if it can be done as you have inferred condog on revenues well all the better.
> 
> ...





my view is that condog is very much excited by the play but equally is guessing, and i am not at all convinced the position aut are in is good enough for the near term.. going by his numbers, which i dont entirely agree with, thats scary enough, and i see far more costs than just what condog is discussing, this is a greenfield play.. whats facing the jvp is very much a huge commitment in capital, i dont think the aut position is that good, but its early days. you can run lean on what you have and gamble, or be ready for whats about to happen.. if your not preparing for the future then you must be preparing to exit early..

my view is that an opportunity exists for a cap raising atm that may be of considerable benefit.. aut equally have an opportunity to do as adi have,  and right now would be a good time to give institutional investors a great envelope of  opportunity and could also gain aut strong support. later imho would be a harder product to sell...  and if there is a second wave of stock market weakness or corrections, the high risk reward opportunists may not be as available.. imho strike whilst the iron is hot, cover your position early and be in the right shape for the next 12 months early.. later on you may be facing a whole lot of different circumstances. aut would need a heck of a lot more than what they have to get by in the near term imho

 hilcorp can potentially, and imho, will have to hit these leases real hard. and very quickly. and i dont think it will be with a single rig. my view is that hilcorp would return and make a very big investment in development of the play and i cant seeing them doing that in 2 years from now.. i see all jvp partners gearing up for something, and aut have yet to act..  i think adi with 10% have more cash in hand than aut right now, which may just be enough for the near term.... and adi is also seriously looking at selling yemen, so more capital to come with any good fortune.. 10% of this play would easily need 20 times what adi have in reserve atm..  the costs of developing a play like this given the leasing constraints is grossly misunderstood and underestimated by just about all i know of,, and in the case of whats happening to another eagleford player in mcmullen, i think its beyond belief how precarious things are with that type % of lease holding, leaving them vulnerable to the wolves imho..

you need substantial capital for a play like this.. staggering numbers really.. be careful in how you calculate the future capital requirements of your investments imho.. holding more % can be very  much a disability if your not extremely cashed up.. extremely careful and cautious and conservative..

i can see some huge potential in all the jvp partners, i have invested a small holding in aut on the belief its got a little way to run, and it has so far.. and i do think they have considerable future potential, but equally there is a risk factor you have to consider, and if i see aut making the right noises i may invest a lot more capital their way..  until then i will look at what develops and there are many things i can see that could eventuate in the very near term that imho may have significant impacts on the jvp partners.. 

cash is king still you cant sit on your hands any more in this sugarkane play..


all imho and dyor


----------



## estseon (1 May 2010)

" Originally Posted by condog  View Post
AUT had over$8.8M in cash last time i checked after they exercised the directors oppies.

They should be good to get through the current drilling program without dilution in my opinion. This is only opinion."
=========================================================

I agree, condog. What's all the moaning and crying about "dilution" all about?

ADI issued 22m shares at 25c to increase cash to AUD 9.5m. If I remember correctly, small holders could have bought in the market at 26/27 cents in the days prior to suspension. 

I didn't. To borrow an expression from OGG, I have been 'maxed out' since last October when I doubled up following the farm out.

AUT had AUD 6.5m at 31 March

Exercise of Directors' options in April:

About 1.4m @ 19 cents = AUD 275k
About 3.3m @ 24 cents = AUD 800k
About 1.0m @ 29 cents = AUD 290k
About 1.8m @ 30 cents = AUD 550k

So, about AUD 8.4m cash in hand unless I've missed something.

So, cash holdings for development of S/L are comparable but development of Longhorn (25% WI) and Ipanema (30% WI) will still need further capital.

The AUD 1.9m raised was dilutive. Fewer shares were issued and the dilution was less than for ADI. But the discount was greater - that is the nature of directors' incentive options.

There is no getting away from dilution until cash from production attributable to the JVPs builds up to the point that it can service new development.

I have holdings in both companies. I've been following S/L for over 4 years. I look at what was achieved before the beginning of 2010 and I look at what has been achieved since. 

Hope value has been diluted. Real value has been generated. The cash is destined to create more real value.

What's the issue?


----------



## condog (1 May 2010)

Agent ............ straight from Jon Stewart himself. If as you say its 2 years from now AUT will have substantially more cash then ADI and EKA, with interest in 10 wells worth of cash flow, some at higher interest, so roughly about 15:3 the cash flow of ADI and EKA. So if in 12 months ADI has accumulated $10 million, AUt should technically have accumulated approx $50m in cash.

$6.5M prior to oppies. $2.4M from oppies exercise. No OPEX or CAPEX going forward other then admin. Cash flow will produce prior to any drilling costs.

I suggest you contact him via email, hes a very proactive communicator. They actually have $8.5M+ cash, which is ample given the imminent cash flow and percentage working interests.

The only development that can outpace AUT capital at present is on Longhorn and Ipenema. The aMI will be limited by EKA and ADI capital. Which when you take other things into account is far more scarce then AUT's. Yemen???

*At the end of the day what a wonderful problem to have, so many productive drilling opportunities that you cant do them fast enough.*


----------



## nioka (1 May 2010)

estseon said:


> "What's the issue?




The issue is simply that loyal shareholders are not given a bite of the cherry.

With EKA it was a prorata issue and I maintained my shareholding by taking up the issue. With ADI one shareholder AWE was given the opportunity of maintaining its percentage holding. Other shareholders were not. The discounted shares were given to a third party who will sell these shares at a profit almost immediately.

If AUT do raise more capital I would hope they follow the lead of little brother and give me a chance to maintain my percentage holding.


----------



## Bigukraine (2 May 2010)

nioka said:


> The issue is simply that loyal shareholders are not given a bite of the cherry.
> 
> With EKA it was a prorata issue and I maintained my shareholding by taking up the issue. With ADI one shareholder AWE was given the opportunity of maintaining its percentage holding. Other shareholders were not. The discounted shares were given to a third party who will sell these shares at a profit almost immediately.
> 
> If AUT do raise more capital I would hope they follow the lead of little brother and give me a chance to maintain my percentage holding.




fat chance nokia imo they are to greedy for that , what happens to the ami if one or more parties can't contribute cash.......interesting ......


----------



## Ramblin Round (2 May 2010)

My thoughts exactly. What I predict will happen is that when we reach post-farmout status and the percentages are paid up by Hilcorp, after a year or so those who ARE profitable will purchase the debts and carry for the ones that ARE NOT profitable. With the Aussies in one big circle down here I doubt any single company in the play is in a position to roll up shop and leave town this far into the game. Now it's like throwing darts and hope it lands on a winner. I'm trying to forsee the strategy myself but my bulb has not lit yet.


----------



## Bigukraine (2 May 2010)

Ramblin Round said:


> My thoughts exactly. What I predict will happen is that when we reach post-farmout status and the percentages are paid up by Hilcorp, after a year or so those who ARE profitable will purchase the debts and carry for the ones that ARE NOT profitable. With the Aussies in one big circle down here I doubt any single company in the play is in a position to roll up shop and leave town this far into the game. Now it's like throwing darts and hope it lands on a winner. I'm trying to forsee the strategy myself but my bulb has not lit yet.




ramblin, this has been my fear but not wanting to state it for obvious reasons...... thats why i hate tis "dart" game at the min.


----------



## condog (2 May 2010)

Id rather be invested in a company that has so many viable well opportunities it cant drill fast enough , then any other company on the market at present. 

This is a storm in a tea cup fokes. Your suffering winners remoarse. Moving up maslows hierachy of needs in respect to your stock. Now you know its good , your looking for something else to worry about, because you like worrying. lol

EKA is cahed up, ADI is cashed up and AUt is cashed up with 8.5M. Cash will be forthcoming. Its all good. Hillcorp will be the issue they have $300m burning a hole in thier pocket. But i did note on TRCC they are drilling two wells of thier own in gonzales. That will burn $12M of thier cash.


----------



## Agentm (2 May 2010)

nioka said:


> The issue is simply that loyal shareholders are not given a bite of the cherry.
> 
> With EKA it was a prorata issue and I maintained my shareholding by taking up the issue. With ADI one shareholder AWE was given the opportunity of maintaining its percentage holding. Other shareholders were not. The discounted shares were given to a third party who will sell these shares at a profit almost immediately.
> 
> If AUT do raise more capital I would hope they follow the lead of little brother and give me a chance to maintain my percentage holding.




nioka

i thought i read somewhere on the eka thread on hc that you had dumped out the majority of your shares in adi and went to eka??? and if eka did a pro rata to existing shareholders, why were they not interested in institutional support long term? i thought the eka share raising was under-subscribed, with bell potter taking up the slack??

from eka a few weeks back

"Valid acceptances from 346 shareholders were received in respect of 15,467,955 shares representing a take-up of approximately 70%. The underwritten shortfall of 6,574,357 shares will now be placed by Bell Potter as underwriter of the Entitlements Issue."

perhaps adi didnt want the same scenario.. or am i thinking wrong here?? plenty of clowns whom are adi holders are absolutely going to town on ADI re the cap raising yet ignoring the lack of support eka got from their own shareholders just weeks ago.. imho institutional support that adi has just achieved is a brilliant move and well timed.. 

also, what loyalty are you referring to in regards to the adi share?  if i understand it right i thought you were one of the highest volume traders on the adi and eka weekly turnover with most of your position in the later? do you expect loyalty points for all the shares you have traded in its entirety? you have made $4000 into $400000 according to your own posts on the forums by trading between the partners.. imho your way ahead of the game in a big way... which i absolutely admire you for btw..

also, where is it stated these investors will be selling their stock immediately? is it a guess or a fact you are aware of?

tia

condog.. what i am saying is that your not in a position to fully appreciate the costs needed to keep those extended acreages. if your not being topleased then your looking to have to raise way more than $1500 per acre to renew if a landowner wants to (so aut have some pretty big capital requirements JUST FOR LEASES unless they commence immediate drilling).. i know of ranch owners in our acreages who have been handed $600 per acre cheques already by enduring, thats theirs to keep and spend.. and a promise of $900 more in a few months time when their leases run out, so $1500 all up per acre.. enduring will lose the $600 if hilcorp dont drill their leases, or gain acreages from the AMI jvp bigtime if hilcorp let our acreages go.. topleasing only happens on the very sought after and profitable plays.. and topleasing is becoming a huge issue..  so dont think a whole bunch of wells wont be needed to be drilled in all regions in a very very short period of time.. whether the respective directors are calculating their future requirements and commitments correctly is up to the investor to decide, you have very much explained your position without much substance, and forgetting history entirely  its very much a distinct possibility that wells are being drilled to keep leases, as is the case atm with the drilling in longhorn as your obviously not aware.

further you present a case of aut having the ability to finance all necessary future needs.. as you put it..  based on an email you claim you have..(keep that email for later condog, could be a lucrative one if you follow my drift)

you know, if i believed every official release the jvp put out since the project began, and in the case of aut i include that last cap raising at around .50 cents aut did, where 2 wells were promised for the extended acreages and those wells never eventuated..then i would not be as cynical of aut.. dont get me wrong, i am investing in aut, and i fully understand their position, but i see it way way different to you right now..  in this email you had, did you get a full business model to back it up, and a full explanation of the number of wells, which acreages they were in, leasing capital, pipeline capital requirements, and the timings?  imho aut cannot raise capital unless their sp is well above .50 or those previous investors from a few years back would be absolutely livid in seeing further dilutions.. and the directors themselves are loving the cheap shares they are giving themselves..

condog, all directors will heavily promote their position to you, and anyone not doing it would be remiss,, but i listen to what they say and research everything i can to see how accurate they may be.. not many wouldnt be saying 
'we're fine. alls sweet, looking good"


i look at your last post condog and really dont get your perspective you have on fellow investors here.. think your failing to see the picture here, as i am investing in aut,  and i have done so for an outcome.. the 4 extended acreage wells.. i see significant upside.. but i expect a lot of changes and see a lot of possibilities and eventualities in the near and long term for all the respective jvp partners..


----------



## condog (2 May 2010)

Agent obviously everything could change, but right now we have 10 free carried wells and virtually no costs for 2010. Leasing costs are minimal. I take your point about lease renewals. 

To meet well spacing requirments AUT has 9690 net acres, which equates to 15 net well costs at 1 well per 640 acres to retain the leases.

15 Wells at a total of $6M each is $90M , but they dont all need to be done next year or the year after, some do some dont. 

Based on our share of the 15 wells next year we will need to have approx $18.5M to meet our obligations depending on the priority order. 

The following year we will need roughly $37M assuming costs remain the same, which is unlikely. 

On my estimates we will collect $22.5M roughly next year, plus what we collect and retain this year. 

Its all rough, hypothetical and i run multiple scenarios, but if condensate and gas remain around current levels, unless we have several dusters we can* in my opinion* easily meet capital requirments for the current drilling program. 

In addition once you have two flowing wells at signiificant rates a debt facility becomes an easily affordable option and they would be crazy not to utilise one given the low interest rates and high ROI predicted.

Having said all that yes there are many, many uncertainties, but your prediction that i underestimate the expense is just as  innacurate as your assumption you understand them better then I. 

Right now with the current program it looks easily affordable. Thats not to say they wont change the schedule, bring it forward or capital raise. 

Like all these time will tell. IT wasnt that long ago Agent you where indicating to me AUt was the wrong choice over ADI , you had serious concerns about the acerage and lease costs. I went ahead on my calcs and backed my research and got it very right indeed. In that time AUt has moved from low 20c range to 68c and back to 66c. ADi has gone from 17c to 38c back to 29c. Now even you have seen the value and joined the ranks as an AUT holder.

AUt still has to realise the value of its extra free caried wells and thier revenue streams, so has much more value still in it. Those extra revenue streams will then fuel faster growth then the other two AMI partners.

Anyway lets just all enjoy the ride. Its been good so far, looks even better in the near term. 

Yep im up beat, but not niave.


----------



## nioka (2 May 2010)

Agentm said:


> nioka
> 
> i thought i read somewhere on the eka thread on hc that you had dumped out the majority of your shares in adi and went to eka???




You read wrong or I posted incorrectly. My investment account is still accumulating all three. You will see that by the slow increase in the number held. My trading account had sold its ADI for EKA and AUT but has started to trade back to ADI while maintaining my AUT. My main holding is with ADI and has always been that way. I consider myself a substantial long term loyal shareholder.I am peeved off by not being given the opportunity to take up the offer and maintain my percentage holding in the same manner that AWE was able to. One in should have been all in. Because of this I will be slowly switching to AUT as my main investment in the three.

For tax implications I trade and invest in two completely different named accounts.


----------



## luap77 (2 May 2010)

Hi Nioka,

Would it be possible for you to please clarify the following statement for me:

"For tax implications I trade and invest in two completely different named accounts."

Does this mean 2 separate accounts with your broker (your name on both, but different account numbers)?

Basically, I would like to know more as I'm interested in doing a bit of trading aside from stocks I'm invested in. 

Thanks.

luap77


----------



## luap77 (2 May 2010)

Oh, and apologies to all for going off topic. I am asking because I haven't set up a structure that will enable me to distinguish these two activities for tax purposes, and that statement jumped out at me as a chance to seek clarification.


----------



## Ramblin Round (2 May 2010)

Most definitely when it comes to penny stocks, these are by far a good pick. I mean there has to be tons of them out there and how do you ever choose ? At least we all here are researching and making good decisions backed up with real information from the field that we can see. Sure beats hopes and promises from some wannabe widget solar company or some crap investment.

You guys want to hear something hilarious ? Here in the States they are running a media blitz describing the use of natural gas to be the Eureka movement. I just saw a commecial about it and had to do a double take. But it's stating as in "Eureka" you just thought of something good .......you know ? Now if _that's_ not an opportunity for improvement for EUK I don't know what is.


----------



## estseon (2 May 2010)

Nioka

"I am peeved off by not being given the opportunity to take up the offer and maintain my percentage holding in the same manner that AWE was able to"

I struggle to understand the point, especially as ADI has been trading close to the issue price recently (26/27 cents). You are trading a proportion of your portfolio anyway so what is the importance of % holding?

Rights issues are relatively expensive and long-winded affairs. The management took advantage of quick alternative that minimised market uncertainty. The AWE holding most probably effectively blocks opportunistic predator attention. We want to realise the full and proper value on these shares not get taken out by some vulture feeding off our long-term commitment. Speaking also as an AUT holder, I don't want opportunist predator attention for that company either.

So, good luck with your trading of the price dislocations that seem to crop up. But I do think it time to bury the mode of capital raising used by ADI. EME did a second capital raising in April (a placement also) and only then started to make more specific comments about S/L. AUT has had the further cash from exercise of Directors' options. The new cash requirement seems to be a fairly recent event and seems to be focussed on S/L. AUT has already said that it will raise further capital for the ramped up activity programmed for 2011 which, presumably, will include Longhorn & Ipanema. Continued operations on S/L in 2010, for which it appears to have cash, will hopefully raise the share price in advance of that CR. It's looking quite smart for AUT. 

By bringing forward development, they are reducing the discount in the NPV calculations anyway. That will provide some compensation for dilution through CRs. And BP has inadvertently handed everyone drilling onshore a big present. 

Let's defer judgment for a few months and see what happens.

Sorry for talking ADI on this BB.


----------



## condog (3 May 2010)

Lets get this baby focused back on AUT. 

Im hoping for a Morgan announcment asap. 

When AUT whre quizzed on 30day results potentially failing to meet ASX disclore rules , and he said the focus would be on 30 day results, and that they where not stating they would not release IP results.

So lets hope we keep getting IP rates on these fracs as well. If so Morgan must be surely overdue now.


----------



## condog (3 May 2010)

Looks like news might be filtering out on Morgan flows? 

I bought some as i offloaded AAM. But looks to be a step up in actrion


----------



## AngusSmart (3 May 2010)

Nice up today already eh condog!!

Cant wait for the actual news to hit!! i bought a pretty big packet on friday, well big for me anyway! sounds like you guys have a bit more invested in this!

still going to hold my small packet of Aam for a while.. see what happens there.


----------



## condog (3 May 2010)

News out Morgan flowing to sales. They hope to give numbers later in the week once stabilised.

Easily progressing well. 

All good, cross your fingers, Morgan should be a cracker.


----------



## estseon (4 May 2010)

"All good, cross your fingers, Morgan should be a cracker"

So should Rancho, I reckon.

Easley may be disappointing compared to those 2. It's only 3,000ft vs 5,000ft and it may be gassier.

Could be a bumpy ride over the next month or so but the trend can only go one way if they're good.


----------



## condog (4 May 2010)

estseon said:


> "All good, cross your fingers, Morgan should be a cracker"
> 
> So should Rancho, I reckon.
> 
> ...




Yeh it would seem we are still very cheap and opportunistic for anyone who knows the game. I need to make at least January before any big CGT events are avoided, so i hope we run hard and fast. I sustpect a 20c run followed by a 4-8c retrace might be the pattern for a while. I suspect Morgan is being factored in by some yesterday. But the market will surely be very excited if the flows are what im anticipating, with a puulback before the easily announcment. Surely Easily is known by the big players to be a softer result. But non-the-less it will still add several $M revenue. 

Exciting times and very glad to be a holder.


----------



## condog (4 May 2010)

Relevant : 

In the South Texas Eagle Ford where EOG holds 505,000 net acres in the mature oil window, the Harper Unit #4H was completed to sales in Karnes County. The well, the 17th that EOG has drilled across a six-county area in the play, began production at a rate of 602 Bopd with 650 thousand cubic feet per day of natural gas. EOG has 100 percent working interest in the well. To date, EOG's initial production results in the play are consistent with the average well commencing production at an approximate 800 Bopd rate. EOG is operating a six-rig drilling program in the Eagle Ford and plans to significantly increase production in 2011

From:
Google news today


----------



## Sharejon (4 May 2010)

Condog I'm nowhere near as knowledgable of the Eagle Ford fields as you are, so mind giving me/us your interpretation on the relevance of that. Of course there is relevance (location.....) but I'm not exactly sure about the meaning of such a statement.


----------



## estseon (5 May 2010)

Sharejon,

sorry to butt in.

I like:

"Karnes county"  nearby - same county

IP results are consistent - across 6 counties for the play - mature oil window - average IP well below Kennedy - a half-well - and we're in the over-pressured condensate rich window.

There are some plays where you drill a well and find non-commercial traces. Not on sugarloaf nor, it would seem, anywhere on the Eagleford play. But we have the Austin chalks overlay as well - don't know if EOG does.

AUT has the Longhorn acreage being currently drilled. How will it turn out? It's surrounded by producing wells - that must de-risk it. Anyway, Hilcorp wouldn't be intending to frac if they were considered to be non-commercial.

But everyone will read news their own way. You might like different aspects of that news.


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Thats about it in a nutshell. 

Consistent positive production results with liquids in surrounding acerages, very much de-risks our project. Those flows are in fact lower then ours but still fantastic in anyones language. If Turner 1,2,3 flow like that with our higher percentage interests, thats some very serious cash flow and they will be payed of very quick indeed.


----------



## Agentm (5 May 2010)

2% drop in the dow..

these are the best days..

with any luck the jvp partners wont hold up and the some mighty cheap shares come into play..

good luck to all sellers!


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Agentm said:


> 2% drop in the dow..
> 
> these are the best days..
> 
> ...




tongue in cheak - im all full up ...

stocks like these generally sustain or hold anyway, given peoples desperation to find a safehaven is case they are wrong.


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Holy !@#!@#!@!@#%!%

Look at Morgan rates 2000+ Bocpd + 5.6mmcfgpd (1200 would have been fantastic, 2000 is rediculous)

Easely 780 bocpd + 6.8mmcfgpd  ( as expected i was hoping 500-800) so its good.

Imagine when Rancho and Turnbulls are online. Its only Ip's but wow, they are fantastic

Not only that but how fast was Easely done, .

Agent they must be all over Rancho and trunbulls fraccing by now at that rate.


----------



## adobee (5 May 2010)

looks like it could be an interesting morning ...  i might take another look at EKA dependent on the reaction of the market and how it opens. ..


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Morgan at 31mmcfgpd equivelent is basically 3x Kennedy and Weston rates. Its only an IP which should drop, but even then it should be 2.5+ times. At that rate this will be repaid extremely fast and will surely fast track or fund additional future wells. 

If Rancho and the Turnbull 1, 2, 3 and Ipenema wells are anything close to this then i think we might see rolling valuation upgrades by the analysts.


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Right now AUT green amongst a sea of red 

More importantly with the current flow rates across Kennedy, Weston, Morgan and Easely, once hilcopr is paid back will fund approx one new well from cash flow every 30 days. Thats amazing given where we where 3 months ago.

If Rancho and the Turnbulls are good it looks like we might be funding two wells every 30 days from cash flow.


----------



## Sdajii (5 May 2010)

Welcome Sdaji to the AUT holders' club! 

Just look at today's announcement and the fact that I could pick them up for less today than I could have yesterday, and you can understand why! Thank you to whoever decided to sell


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Welcome Sdaji to the AUT holders' club!
> 
> Just look at today's announcement and the fact that I could pick them up for less today than I could have yesterday, and you can understand why! Thank you to whoever decided to sell




Wellcome Sdaji - you must be grinning from ear to ear buying at todays price with those Morgan flow rates on deck.


----------



## Sharejon (5 May 2010)

I'm guessing alot of the reason as to why AUT went down was due to shareholders trading between AUT/ADI and EKA, with AUT being sold to buy shares in EKA/ADI considering AUT has been the stronger performer in recent times.

It seems the latest announcement from the Morgan#1H well was a very positive announcement for the company and I'm expecting a quick bounce back up, unless there is something i'm unaware of.


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Sharejon said:


> I'm guessing alot of the reason as to why AUT went down was due to shareholders trading between AUT/ADI and EKA, with AUT being sold to buy shares in EKA/ADI considering AUT has been the stronger performer in recent times.
> 
> It seems the latest announcement from the Morgan#1H well was a very positive announcement for the company and I'm expecting a quick bounce back up, unless there is something i'm unaware of.




The markets was in a bad mood today, but im pretty confident in the short term we will see a big bounce. All opinion of course.


----------



## Whistler (5 May 2010)

condog

If the cost of a well in the Sugarloaf AMI is Aust $8,000,000 per well then AUT's 10% share (post farm out) is A$800,000 per well - which would cost A$9,600,000 over the next 12 months if one well were drilled per month.

For this to occur, the net operating surplus for the 4 wells (i.e gross sales less expenses) to be enjoyed by all joint venture participants (all players that comprise the total 100% ownership of the Sugarloaf AMI) would have to be Aust $96,000,000 per annum (ignoring payback to Hilcorp).

What gross revenue per annum are you assuming for each of Kennedy, Weston, Morgan and Easley and what extraction expense ratio are you deducting from gross sales revenue? Your views would be very much appreciated.

Cheers

Whistler


----------



## condog (5 May 2010)

Whistler said:


> condog
> 
> If the cost of a well in the Sugarloaf AMI is Aust $8,000,000 per well then AUT's 10% share (post farm out) is A$800,000 per well - which would cost A$9,600,000 over the next 12 months if one well were drilled per month.
> 
> ...




Hey who said its $8million, the highest figure ive heard is $7m and that was when TCIE where stuffing things up. Now hillcorp are doing it less then half the time and getting it right forst time, its likely to be less then $5M , cant go too much lower unless frac materials become cheaper and steal + cement, which i doubt.

I rather simply use a net fee its far simpler to estimate and use. Today i used $65 net to the JVP's after all expenses except admin.

I realise your being quiet complimentary and polite in your questioning, but if you feel its wrong, please provide an alternative, or correction. Im genuine, my reason for positng these cals is three fold, to help others, to help me and to have them cross examined.  So if there is a mistake by all means yep point it out. Ta,.

The other thing to consider is last presentation Pattersons valuedc each well at $16M NPV. Morgan has the potential to massively booost that, given lower costs and much higher returns. Possibly up to $40 M  NPV for Morgan. If Rancho comes online or a few of the turnbulls with similar figures id imagine at least a 25- 60% upgrade in valueatuion. 

The last valuation was 92c fully risked. So a new one from pattersons might be around $.115 to $1.47 in the short term.

All opinion so DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## Slipperz (5 May 2010)

Amazing results. 

Has anyone mentioned condensate sweet spot recently?

That seems to be where we are in the play.

Oh well I guess someone has to make lots of money, it might as well be us.


:chimney


----------



## philly (5 May 2010)

PATERSONS have released an update on AUT today. The target price is 93 cents

Investment Highlights
●
Significant progress achieved during the March Q. During the quarter AUT achieved maiden production from its Eagle Ford acreage with IP rates announced for the Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H wells and today announced strong results from the flow-back of the Easley #1H and Morgan #1H wells.
●
Farm-in works well progressed. Hilcorp has rapidly progressed through its farm-in commitments, completing the fraccing of the 3 x existing wells, drilled and cased 3 x new horizontal wells in the Sugarloaf AMI, drilled and completed 1 x well in the Longhorn AMI with a further well underway and as announced today, has completed the fracture stimulation and flow back of 2 x Sugarloaf wells. At the end of the program AUT will have interest in 10 x producing wells drilled into the highly productive Eagle Ford Shale.
●
Further success announced today. AUT today announced the completion of the stimulation and flow back of the Morgan #1H and Easley #1H wells, with IP rates of 5.16mmscf/d & 2,046bcpd (31mmscfe/d) and 6.81mmscf/d & 780bcpd (17.9mmscfe/d). This is in addition to the previously announced rates from the Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H wells and highlights the productivity of the Eagle Ford shale and the upside to be achieved from the development of AUT’s interest in the shale. The results tie-in well with our assumption of 6.5mmscfd and a CGR of 180bbls/mmscf.
●
Decline rates better than expectations. During the quarter AUT reported 30 and 60-day production rates with the 30 day rate at Kennedy and Weston 50% higher than rates observed in the region.
●
We maintain our BUY recommendation with a price target of $0.93/sh based on a risked assessment of a full field development across AUT’s 3 x AMI’s. AUT is funded through a definitive 2010 drilling program, which at completion will provide interest in 10 x productive wells and further define the prospectivity of AUT’s net interest in 9,620acres across the Sugarkane field. Ongoing drilling/testing and potential reserves certification mid-year will provide short term catalysts going forward.

I'm one happy holder


----------



## 5haretrader (6 May 2010)

philly said:


> PATERSONS have released an update on AUT today. The target price is 93 cents




Hi Philly, I'm pretty new to the life of share of trading and if you dont mind me asking, where can you source these sort of predictions?


----------



## condog (6 May 2010)

Thanks Philly, they are playing it very conservatively by using the reserve certification as thier primary valuation method. And hence that explains to me why thier valuation in my opinion is so super conservative.

They have not acknowledged the massive reduction in drilling and fraccing time which multiplies the effect of the higher flow for calculating NPV's. 

I know Morgan is the only big one yet, but the lower drill costs and thus higher NPV will apply to every well going forward and would imo change the valuation by at least 25%.

Looks like they haowever are waiting till july for the certification change. I guess they have to cover thier bums by using someone elses numbers to justify thiers.

They have also overlooked that having a huge producing well like Morgan so early in the project
Brings forward cashflow
Reduces chances of dilution
Significantly de-risks many aspects
Provides chances of substantially more income and accelleration of the entire project.

At some point they could also acknowledge this does not need a fully risked valuation. A bit premature yet, but, if / when they do that it would be a big re-rating.


----------



## tonudiki (6 May 2010)

condog

 I also find Patersons latest valuation unbelievably conservative and in fact I cannot fathom their latest target of only 93c per share for AUT "based on a risked assessment of a full field development across AUT’s 3 x AMI’s." 

 I am not a client of Patersons and so I cannot access their latest report on AUT, but I have managed to do a rough comparison with Hartley's March 2010 assessment of the unrisked value of Sugarloaf to ADI.

  Hartleys figure for the "unrisked" value of Sugarloaf to ADI was $268.7m or 147.3m issued shares X 182.4 cps. (Post the latest placing by ADI that would now translate to 169.3m shares X 158.7cps). I would guess that Hartleys will soon be updating their value at a higher figure, given the latest excellent initial flow results.  However, even comparing the out of date Sugarloaf Hartley values for ADI with the latest Paterson's value for AUT, the comparison seems very odd.

 Paterson's latest "risked" value/target for AUT is 219m issued shares X 93cps = $203.7m.  So, Patersons value Sugarloaf at only ~76% of Hartleys value for ADI, even though at 9,620 net acres, AUT HAVE GOT OVER 4 TIMES THE NET ACREAGE OF ADI (who have 2350 acres).

 As far as I am aware, the Longhorn and Ipenama acreage of AUT is just as prospective as the Sugarloaf JV acreage. Therefore, for the ADI and AUT unrisked values per acre to "line up", it would require an AUT unrisked value of ~A$1100m or 502 cps.

 I appreciate that Patersons value for AUT is a "risked" assessment, but atttributing less than 20% of a comparative unrisked value to the project does seem too severe?

 Perhaps the devil is in the detailed assumptions and the latest Paterson's report has an explanation for this apparent wide discrepancy???


----------



## estseon (6 May 2010)

ton,

they've been talking about a re-appraisal mid-year after the Longhorn wells (and Ipanema) and after a new certification of reserves since AUT's March presentation.

Hilcorp has has so upgraded its performance none of those valuations will have much meaning. Also, we have yet to learn the programme for the 2nd half of 2010.

We need to sit it out.


----------



## condog (6 May 2010)

estseon said:


> ton,
> 
> they've been talking about a re-appraisal mid-year after the Longhorn wells (and Ipanema) and after a new certification of reserves since AUT's March presentation.
> 
> ...




Stuff sitting it out, they claim to be brokers, yet despite all those anomilies, upgrades, extra capaity they come out with a 1c revision. Some one at pattersons, presumably the one who did or approved the valuation change has done them a severe dis service.

If they want to be taken seriously, they need to act accordingly. 

Theres rouchly 200,000,000 AUT shares yet a well that comes out at over double the current predicted rate only changes the valuation by 1c. They have the thing priced at a 3% chance of success, despite 5 from 5 hitting prolific condensat and gas , and 4 from 5 producing to sales, with another god knows how many about to produce, and one of them massively bigger then anything else in the entire eagleford that we know of.

Wake up Pattersons, youve made fools of yourself. Either leave it unchanged or get real.


----------



## philly (6 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Hi Philly, I'm pretty new to the life of share of trading and if you dont mind me asking, where can you source these sort of predictions?




All brokers regularly do research on companies and make a BUY or SELL or HOLD recommendation. If it is a BUY recommendation they will also give a target price.

If you are a client of the broking firm then you get access to the research reports.
If not then the company being researched usually will post the brokers report on their web page.

Whilst these reports are helpful the brokers have a vested interest they want you to trade shares so they can get the brokerage fees.

Don't over rely on broker's reports.
You need to consider much more before you act on a trade
That is why ASF is good because lots of people give us information to consider. For example Condog and others believe that Patersons are too conservative in their analysis of AUT.

As a new share trader there is one commodity that you can never have enough of and that is information.
Good luck


----------



## condog (6 May 2010)

> HOUSTON, May 5 -- Pioneer Natural Resources Co., Dallas, said it is pursuing a joint venture in the South Texas Eagle Ford shale play and expects to reach agreement by midyear.
> 
> The company’s latest completion, its fifth successful well in the shale, made an initial 14.1 MMcfd of gas and 255 b/d of condensate with 5,600 psi wellhead flowing pressure on a 24/64-in. choke. Gas is 1,200 btu/Mcf.




Pioneer must be crying when they see results like Morgan the other day with 2000+ bocpd and half as much gas.

Makes the AUT acerage almost prime eagleford imo. 

More buying today. sold of others that where up, took a loss, but got a relative gain and into a better more insulated stock.


----------



## Agentm (7 May 2010)

condog, your missing the point on the well bigtime.. are you serious about pioneer here?? this isnt a case who's got the best well, this well demonstrates many many things critical for aut in their forward planning

condog.. firstly the pioneer well is positioned right next to the AUT region, they hold over 300,000 acres and has a massive edwards play going on down there in pawnee and across the live oak, bee, karnes and dewitt counties

yes they also have blocks further north in the prime acreages, dont be fooled by their position.. and they have the majority of the dry gas region, but what your missing the point on the announcement, they did not list the oil value on the well

pioneer are not backwards on the play, there are wells they have not disclosed in the chalks in dewitt county, they understand its sugarkane there abouts also.. most players are not talking the chalks aspect up at all.. for very obvious reasons

Pioneer Natural Resources Continues Successful Eagle Ford Shale Drilling Program


DALLAS—-Pioneer Natural Resources Company today announced its fifth successful well in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The Chesnutt Gas Unit #1 well, which is located in Karnes County, Texas, tested at an initial production rate of *15.6 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day* on a 24/64 inch choke with approximately 5,600 pounds per square inch wellhead flowing pressure.

*this well is pretty close to adi/aut ami acreages and right next to ipanema  imho* 

i think the whole thing is being missed by many,, that well result is what i have been hearing about recently and its why i jumped into aut.. 

imho it has huge implications on the derisked aspect for the entire jvp.. but importantly for AUT, in fact critically condog, you failed to mention it demonstrates the ipanema acreages are now very very  perspective..

if you see the opportunity imho take it! this one is very obviously under the radar for most investors in aut.  they simply are not in any way keeping track of regional activity what so ever.. but i assure you that this well, and a few others near by, is the primary reason why i am loading into this play.. imho its pretty much as hartleys said.. 95% derisked


----------



## condog (7 May 2010)

Agent, settle pettle, no need for such an unjustified launch at me. I havent missed the point at all, i was simply saying when they see us bore Morgan and come up with 2000+ they must be spewwing, that it wasnt theirs.

Its a good result for Pioneer, but they must absolutely wish they had a result like Morgan under thier belt, especially as early as we have. 

I reiterate, so far the AMI is proving to be one of the best acerages in the entire Eagleford. No points missed, all good, relax. This result is one of the trophy results of the region so far.


----------



## WRONG'UN (7 May 2010)

For what it's worth, the Morgan IP, at the latest oil and gas prices, and exchange rate, is worth (5.16 x 1.25 x 1000 x 3.91 + 2046 x 76.7) / 0.885 = $A205,817 per day. 86% of this is from the oil component.


----------



## condog (7 May 2010)

WRONG'UN said:


> For what it's worth, the Morgan IP, at the latest oil and gas prices, and exchange rate, is worth (5.16 x 1.25 x 1000 x 3.91 + 2046 x 76.7) / 0.885 = $A205,817 per day. 86% of this is from the oil component.




Yep a  little over 40 days and its payed for itself, give it another 40 days and its topped up the contributions of Kennedy and Weston and payed them of, around 20 days more its payed of the remainde of Easily... get the picture.

Obviously these IP should drop, but we will wait to see.


----------



## Agentm (7 May 2010)

condog said:


> Agent, settle pettle, no need for such an unjustified launch at me. I havent missed the point at all, i was simply saying when they see us bore Morgan and come up with 2000+ they must be spewwing, that it wasnt theirs.
> 
> Its a good result for Pioneer, but they must absolutely wish they had a result like Morgan under thier belt, especially as early as we have.
> 
> I reiterate, so far the AMI is proving to be one of the best acerages in the entire Eagleford. No points missed, all good, relax. This result is one of the trophy results of the region so far.




sorry condog

it is not a bad result that pioneer well. it demonstrates the play is very prospective, and the ip means squat, its all about stabilized flow rates and declines.  they would not be upset with their well in any way, and it sure looked great to me..

different regions with different characteristics.. these zones have different declines, a point made a lot by the jvp but missed by many


the pioneer handy well is on a par with the morgan well in the wet gas zone

unfortunately the crash had hit the jvp hard, but fortunately i am able to add in these hash days as i think the jvp will have to put out reserve estimates and be  re rated in the very near term post the hilcorp farm in agreement wells completion in the ami

not pretty or nice for anyone atm.. but there is opportunity still imho to add some more


----------



## Sdajii (7 May 2010)

Agentm said:


> not pretty or nice for anyone atm.. but there is opportunity still imho to add some more




Perhaps I am crazy for thinking this, but it's a very nice and pretty situation for many at the moment. With the whole world in panic there are some bargains around. Everyone is terrified and wanting to get out of anything, unable to stop and think clearly amid the panic. People aren't going to want to stop wanting oil, I think we can be sure of that, and it looks pretty certain that we (holders of AUT, as well as ADI and EKA) are going to have plenty. When people calm down in a few days/weeks/months and this current patch of fear is settled, we'll be looking back at today and thinking "Wow, that was a very nice opportunity for anyone who had the money and calmness on the day".

Even in a crisis, people need to drive around, which takes oil, they need to eat which requires oil to produce and transport.

Buy in gloom, sell in boom. There's plenty of gloom about this week, and it looks to my green eyes like a good opportunity.


----------



## 5haretrader (7 May 2010)

Couldnt agree with you more Sdajii. A market recovery is inevitable, the world's economies wont just deteriorate to nothing. I think the fear of what happened in late 2008/early 2009 is sparking needless doubt in the minds of investors. Ofcourse there are some concerns in the world's economy at the moment, but the Aussie market should be able to hold its own. Nevertheless considering the potential of AUT, the share price is nothing short of a steal.


----------



## Sdajii (7 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> considering the potential of AUT, the share price is nothing short of a steal.




I just about feel like stealing some money so I can use it to steal/buy some more Texas oil. It's driving me mad being unable to buy more today.


----------



## condog (7 May 2010)

It aint over yet, greece that is. US employment data tonight is expected to be good which will hopefully help things a bit.

We need some more news on Rancho or turnbull to keep us floating against the tide. Its hidiously good buying imo as long as the oil prices remain high.


----------



## Ramblin Round (8 May 2010)

Pioneer isn't crying for anyone. Their chalk wells in DeWitt will blow your mind when they are announced.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

Eagleford continues to set a cracking pace as the hottest unconventional play int he US. Setting new records for rigs, production flows and acerage prices.

Article dated 5th May



> PLS sees the Eagle Ford play possibly passing the Marcellus and Haynesville for market activity through the rest of the year as companies jockey for position in the U.S. hottest unconventional play including opportunities in the "oil window." As an example, Talisman announced earlier this morning that it would acquire Common Resources' Eagle Ford assets for $360 million. This number calculates out to record metrics of $9,700 per acre and/or $30,000 per flowing MCFe




From : http://quotes.stocknod.com/stocknod/?ChannelID=3197&GUID=12947945&Page=MediaViewer
Disclaimer: I and ASF take no responsibility for content or safety of external links.


----------



## Ramblin Round (8 May 2010)

Here's Petrohawk's take on Eagle Ford. It is definintely reflective in the DeWitt County horizon of where they want to put their money too.



> Eagle Ford Shale
> 
> Petrohawk has expanded its position in the Eagle Ford trend, where it is currently operating 8 rigs, to include three distinct areas of development: Hawkville, Black Hawk and Red Hawk. Each of these areas has different production profiles which all provide the opportunity for large scale development. The Company forecasts that with the current capital budget allocation in 2010, and a modest increase in drilling capital allocated to the Eagle Ford Shale in 2011, oil and natural gas liquids production is expected to increase significantly to approximately 15%-20% of total production by the end of 2011. Currently, oil and natural gas liquids production is approximately 3% of Petrohawk's total production.
> 
> ...


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

Given the calamity hitting markets this week ive re-done my calculations.

Based on the 30 day flows provided for Weston and Kennedy. Morgan ive estimated 1200bc/d + 1.2MMgas, Rancho T1 T2 T3 and Ip at 750 bc/d & 2mmcfg/d. Kowalick unfixed, or fixed at 600bc and 3.3MM.

Ive given declines of 30% in year 1 and to 50% in year 2.
Ive estimated new well costs at $6M and allowed an average of 20% of each well cost.

Ive calculated new mcap on a PE of 8 for end of year net earnings.
using $65 for condensate and $4per 1000cfGas.

Gives me end of 2010 valuation of 88c without Kowalick fixed or 95c with Kowalick fixed. Note does not take into account delay for revenue after paying hilcorp. But also allows no future value applied. Just an unrisked
multiple of earnings model.

End of next Fyr = $2.62 with Kowalick fixed, 30% decline in 2010 wells and estimates of 600boc and 1mmcfg for 15 wells at $6M and paying 20% of well costs. PE of 8

End of 2011/2012 fyr = $5.66 with 25 new wells in 2012, 50% decline of 2010 wells, 30% decline of 2011 wells. 2012 wells at 600bc and 1mmcfg at $6M each paying 20% of cost. PE of 8.

By that stage AUt would have 50 of its 80-130 wells.

Please note this is amatuer calcs, may contain erros or misjudgments. Do not base decisions on them. Seek expert advice. But i welcome feedback etc. Of course some are going to say thats to high, this is too low, you cant use PE etc etc. Its just one model and its the simplest to explain in here.

For those that want to take it a step further you could give future wells a value and risk factor. Ie i could assume 1 in 10 wells will fail completely, and give each future well 3% of its value, 5% 2 years out and 10% the year before etc. But it gets messy to explain.  Using thise types of calcs the figures come out much higher becasue theres more then 10 wells the following years.  So the simplest way is to just bump up the PE to 10 or 12  to allow for growth.

So with PE of 10 i get 1.09 at end of current Fy, 1.18 with Kowalick fixed
3.28 at end of next FY, and 7.07 the following. This has no allowance for failures other then conservative PE

PE of 12 1.31, 1.42 with Kowalick, 3.93, 8.49

Average PE's run at around 14-18 for this sector with many bigger companies up around 21+
As i said some will say you cant use PE. But you can if you estimate earnings, there just an error factor you need to know exists.

imo its realistic to expect higher Pe's due to growth, but dont get carried away there is still risk. Many US peers operate into the 30's but under a lower tax regime.

As i said may contain errors. So cross check DYOR and seek advice. Do not rely on these, but i hope they help.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

This is just the calcs of the first yr in case anyone wants to cross check the method, bag it or add to it. Theres then a spread sheet of each with the subsequent wells added and declines applied.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

Heres the 2011 calcs or 2nd financial yr


Heres the 2012 calcs or 3rd financial yr



DYOR, may contain errors, seek expert advice.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 May 2010)

Thanks for posting a screenshot of your calcs, condog.  I've always wondered how you do your calcs.  Now I have an idea and can (hopefully) apply it myself.

Not currently in AUT but reading this thread has piqued my interest.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Thanks for posting a screenshot of your calcs, condog.  I've always wondered how you do your calcs.  Now I have an idea and can (hopefully) apply it myself.
> 
> Not currently in AUT but reading this thread has piqued my interest.




Your welcome Pauly

Ive got ROe, NPV, NROE, spreadsheets that are ten times ass complicated as this one,  but at the end of the day these ones come out close and they are fast, easy and simple to explain. Im not reccomending AUt, because id be reckless to, but its definitely worth a very very good look at.

Somewhere in this thread theres a post by agent with a reference to the Pattersons valuation which they have since upgraded to 93c and which will again be upgraded in July or earlier. Well worrth a read, even though i think its extremely conservative.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

One reason to ALWAYS cross check and DYOR. I found an error in the decline rates. In column I. I have fixed and adjusted it. 

My new valuations for my personal use. They do not allow for well failure or calcualte growth. PE is used as the tool to allow for both those. Figures based on those mentioned above in previous post. 30% declin in yr 2, 50% decline in yr 3 for each well. Condensate $65, gas $4 per 1000 cfg. (close enough). Based on AUT presntation forward plans of 10 wells in 2010, 15 in 2011, 25 in 2012. well cost $6M due to speed and economies, AUT share of well cost calculated at average of 20%. Revenues see spreadsheet.




2011 calculations corrected




2012 calculations corrected




Please Please Do YOur Own Research, cross check and take responsibility for your actions. Do not rely on these calculations. May contain errors and do not take your circumstances or risk tolerance into account. Diclaimer - i hold.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 May 2010)

Cheers condog.  I saw agentm's post on Patersons Securities' target price for AUT.  I do recall that Patersons had a target price of about $1.33 or thereabouts on CSS.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Cheers condog.  I saw agentm's post on Patersons Securities' target price for AUT.  I do recall that Patersons had a target price of about $1.33 or thereabouts on CSS.




Thats pretty close to my own im targeting $1.37 at end of calandar 2010, if the current drilling program is finished and not accellerated.


----------



## Slipperz (8 May 2010)

I'm finding myself in agreeance with a lot of your posts Condog.
One point I would argue on your forecasting is the price of gas.
I think you have been to conservative at $4 per mmsf.
Even after this weeks correction we are still looking at $5 per mmsf by years end and that's a 25% premium on current market prices.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

Slipperz said:


> One point I would argue on your forecasting is the price of gas.
> I think you have been to conservative at $4 per mmsf.
> Even after this weeks correction we are still looking at $5 per mmsf by years end and that's a 25% premium on current market prices.




Im not in disagreeance, I always model for myself a figure i think can be achieved. I dont like pesimistic modelling, but i do like to be surprised to the upside. 

Just for you i will plug in $5 and post results - its not a massive difference.
You will also note i think ive been pretty conservative on the condensate and extremely conservative on the gas flows




If i jam those 2011 and 2012 wells up to 600 condensate and 2000Kcfgpd we get 2011 and 2012 

PE 10  $3.70 and $7.91
PE 12 $4.44 and  $9.49


----------



## Slipperz (8 May 2010)

Thanks Condog.

Indeed also the flow rates and levels of condensate are very conservative given our most recent drilling success.

Over time as our acreages are proved up even further I think our location in the condensate window of the play is going to prove very lucrative.

 A few more good results like this weeks and eventually the market will have to start factoring in the value of our position.

Just ran the comparison of this weeks trading and we have slightly underperformed the XJO due to the last minute sell off on Friday, but overall it hasn't been too drastic.

Glad I moved out of AZZ, but even at current prices I am happy to stay onboard with AUT.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

Changing well costs to $8M lowers 2012 by about 45-50c 
2011 by about 20 c and 2010 by about 10c for any given calc.


----------



## estseon (8 May 2010)

Condog,

have you allowed for royalties (29/30% off the gross) and for tax, both local US state tax, US federal tax and Aus tax, if not fully credit relieved (probably)?

For back of the envelope calculations, I have assumed net/net to be about 40% of gross revenues - that allows for some revenue expenditure costs. Initially, the jvps will have tax losses to absorb, then amortisation of well costs, but these will be mopped up quite quickly.

I also assume (as many people seem to do) an averaged 330 day year to allow for shut down for maintenance etc - probably conservative.

On the plus side, AUT's drilling projection could be completely under-stated. The EME and ADI capital raisings are very recent and the 10 well projection for 2010 is out of the window. Neither EME nor ADI needed capital for 2010 for S/L on the old projections.


----------



## rcm617 (8 May 2010)

Great set of spreadsheets condog, however I think you're being a bit optimistic with the condensate figures.
 If you look at kennedy and weston and work out the condensate figures for the 30 to 60 day production it works out at 367 b/d for kennedy and 324 for weston according to my calculations, despite their IPs of 1130 and 414 respectively. I suspect despite high IP for condensates for morgan and kennedy they will all settle down around the 300 to maybe high 400 for the likes of morgan by the second month of production. Bit hard to tell on two wells at this stage,but it is probably better to be a bit more conservative, especially as these are only figures for two months and we dont know the rate of decline further into the year. 
Of course I could be completely wrong.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 May 2010)

condog said:


> Thats pretty close to my own im targeting $1.37 at end of calandar 2010, if the current drilling program is finished and not accellerated.




I was referring to a price target on a completely different company, condog - Clean Seas Tuna (CSS).


----------



## Slipperz (8 May 2010)

Been doing a bit of research on US natural gas in general with a view to getting a good working knowledge of our market.

The report below is a weekly release that seems to have all the relevant information on the weeks trading.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp

More relevant research data here 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pub_top.asp


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

esteon and Rem , thats why i like this method, you can just say oh no thats too optimistic or pesimistic and pick a higher Pe to suit your outlook. 

Esteon, i havent factored in taxes and rowyalities, i assumed wed be tax free for at least the firts year or two. Can easily do so if you wish, just pick a point and rate.

See attached for ammended valuations below. Note this are getting pretty conservative in terms of taxes and costs, so you need to factor in growth in your PE's imo.

Note assumed no tax this year due to loss offsets.



Please Please Do YOur Own Research, cross check and take responsibility for your actions. Do not rely on these calculations. May contain errors and do not take your circumstances or risk tolerance into account. Diclaimer - i hold.


----------



## condog (8 May 2010)

Using Esteons 40% Tax, Rems conservative 400 bcpd for the 2011 and 2012 wells , only 2mmcfgpd , $65 per bc, $5 gas, then applying a 10% PEGrowth to allow for  10% valuation to the next years net revenue per well. Note assumes no failed wells.





When you start giving future wells a value , you can clearly see why the sector operates on high PE's, aside from the obvious growth benefits.
In my opinion the clear growth is in the re-rating that will occur soon, when investors and insots realise the significance of the play and apply a future value. If that occurs prior to 2011, which imo it should , 2011 will offer Ok, but limited growth of around 20% , with far better growth in 2012 when cash flows to expense ratios are higher.  but at some point in the interem we should possibly in my opinion see a major re rating, as we are currently operating with virtually ni future growth value whatsoever. For those who know the play, they know how rediculous that is.


----------



## estseon (9 May 2010)

I think that you are right - we're really waiting for a re-rating, which will follow release of the ramp-up drilling programme, imo.

If the current wells are draining the rock only or primarily from the induced fissures and fractures (the rock is tight - very impermeable) and if they extend only about 150ft from the well bore, which might be a necessary constraint in the vertical plane to avoid damage to the seals above and below the reservoir (vis the Sugarloaf 1 well), the footprint area drained is about 35 acres. So, how many wells would be required? The total gross acreage is a bit over 51,000 (all 3). If they allow 50 acres per well (they've been talking about 100 acres to date), that's 1,000 wells. How many to drill in 2011? 4 rigs might manage 40 - 50. Even at that rate of drilling, there'd be 10 - 20 years of development using current technology for recovery. Each producing well might repay capital cost and fund 2 new wells in the first 12 months....perhaps 3.

That's what I see as driving a re-rating. That could be an EPS of 50 cents by the end of 2011. 75 cents by the end of 2012. 90 cents by the end of 2013. All depending on rate of depletion, maintained drilling rate, prices etc. I've assumed 1,500 boepd. It's difficult to see less than $5.


----------



## condog (9 May 2010)

Esteon i agree with all. Those figures are in the ball park imo.

Drill rates, flow rates, decline rates, well spacing, drilling costs. All we can do at this stage is estimate.

But the few things imo that appear to be obvious are.
* Price of condensate and gas is by far imo the biggest risk factor
* The general market conditions are imo more likely to affect condensate and gas prices then the sp itself, however lower gas and condensate  would flow through to projections. While prices are economic upward pressure will be generally be sustained with each new well.
* Capital will be tight in early 2011, but beyond 2012 economics of cash flow and drill costs should become much better. Despite that sp should imo increase with each new well in 2011 to reflect future cash flows, and added assett values, plus de-risking of the entire project and company.
* If energy prices remain highly feasable, At some point a huge re-rating should occur as Hilcorp convince the market that most wells will be successful, profitable, and future valuation begins to get built in.


If Longhorn or Ipenema with there higher interest wells have great flow rates like it appears Morgan will have then, this has a multiplier effect due to the significnatly higher returns per well spacing imo. Especially longhorn, given its 25% of 23000 acres. From an AUT perspective Longhorn and Ipenema offer significnatly higher returns if they are good. If these Turnbull wells are good, then imo this project has a rocket under it. But thats only opinion.

All opinion so DYOR and seek expert advice.

By the way anyone looking for Agent's link to the Pattersons Report its on Page 10 of this thread. Or click the link here. ASF and I take no responsibility for safety or content of external links. *Note they have updated that valuation to 93c last week.*


----------



## WRONG'UN (9 May 2010)

I like what you guys are saying!

As a cross check, I have attached p17 of ADI’s latest presentation , which gives their assessment of  the economics of a single well. 

In a nutshell, a single well has an NPV of $US12m (gross) (ADI’s 10% share = $1.2m)
So, AUT’s 20% would be $US2.4m = $A2.7m (@ 0.89)

Tax @ 30% would cut this to $A1.9m

ADI are talking about 235 wells – I’m not sure how many would apply to AUT, but as a guide, if it’s 235, the valuation for AUT would be $A1.9m x 235 / 220m shares = $A2.03 / share. Estseon’s 1000 wells would put the valuation up to over $8.

ADI have made a number of assumptions in their model:
. Oil $US80
. Gas $US4.0
. Well cost $7.0m
. 4,500 ft horizontal
. 30 day flow rates for Kennedy and Weston of 11.5mmscfe/d
. 12 year production (wells expected to produce economically for 20 years)

The latest info has oil and gas lower, but well costs are also lower, longer laterals are possible, and Morgan has burst onto the scene – overall things are still looking fine - all the field related assumptions appear to be conservative. As Condog said, the biggest risk is a large fall in energy prices. For example, if gas were to drop to $3, the valuation would drop by about 40%, and the payback time would extend to about 1 year.

Not trying to dispute what’s been said already – just looking at another way of  arriving at a good answer!


----------



## condog (9 May 2010)

Wrongun from the Pattersons report, might help with your method.

Also note reduced drilling time and significantly higher return from Morgan, may have big upward effect on NPV.



> Based on the gas field designation, wells will initially be spaced to hold the ground under production on 640 acre spacing. On this basis a total of 88 wells are required to hold the three AMI’s. However, based on a full field development, optimum well spacing is estimated to be 100 acres well, requiring more than 500 wells.






> Significant upside to be unlocked through 2010. AUT is fully funded through a busy 2010 program with zero exposure to drilling risk & costs. Completion of the 10 wells via the farm-in should see a substantially increased contingent resource and/or reserves position and provide a steady flow of catalysts throughout the year.


----------



## WRONG'UN (9 May 2010)

Thanks Condog
I should actually have used 10%, not 20%, for AUT's interest, due to the farm-out.
Reworking the numbers, and applying 100 acres/well to AUT's 20,285 acres, pre farmout, and ADI's $US12m NPV/well, we get:

( 20,285 acres x 0.5 (farm-out) x $US12m NPV/well / 100 acres/well ) / ( 220m shares x 0.89 aud/usd ) = $A6.21 per share

So we are in the same ballpark, without including the enhancements provided by Morgan etc.

I see Talisman have just paid $US9,700 per acre for Common Resources' Eagle Ford assets. Applying this to AUT's post farm-out acreage we get $A0.50 per share - not sure where Common Resources are in relation to the AMI, but considering the likelihood that the AMI area would sell at a premium to other Eagle Ford areas, the current AUT sp ($A0.61) looks close to its "surrender value".


----------



## condog (9 May 2010)

In the Oct 2009 Investor presnetation from the Aurora web site AUT provided an excellent graph of future value projections. They did not apply exact time frames, but its easy to see where we are heading.







We really havent seen the sudden part of the curve in full swing yet imo. We havent evencracked $150M at present thanks to last weeks shannenigans elsewhere.

Could be interesting next few months if AUT preso is anything to go by??

At 200M sp = 91c, 400M sp = 4.82, 600M sp = 2.73, 800M sp = 3.64, 1B sp = 4.55


----------



## mir (9 May 2010)

condog , WRONG'UN & estseon
good to see all those calcs & possible future price targets for aut ,it doesn't matter who & how you do it , it aways comes out at many times the current share price. the Patersons  upgrade from 92c to 93c was  an absolute joke & waste of time given the  IP results from morgan which were double previous results ( Patersons also follow AZZ & have raised $20m for them ).
i believe there could be another report out next week  on AUT from a new company ,it will be interesting to see how conservative they will be.


----------



## WRONG'UN (9 May 2010)

Common Resources are in the "condensate window", southwest of Sugarloaf - the same area as Petrohawk's 26 wells. The average IP from 30 wells (including Petrohawks' 26) is 10.3mmscf/d - Morgan is 31!


----------



## condog (10 May 2010)

I note oil price stabilised, hopefully a pre-emminint indicator of the market stabilizing, if so hopefully we will get a very big strong bounce to factor in the Massive morgan results from last week.

Those to graphs above will llok cheap if Turnbulls come out with high numbers and we get a big reserves upgrade in July. Looking forward to turnbull 1 IP's.

Also dont forget some of those spreadsheets on the previous page have used numbers as low as 4mmcfgpd. Kennedy, Weston, Morgan and Easily are not on production tubing yet. Morgans and Easily numbers where high as IP's. But the Kennedy and Weston numbers should improve significantly on production tubing.


----------



## condog (10 May 2010)

Ive readjusted for what in my opinion (may not be fact) is realistic. Using net figures to allow for admin and lifting costs. $62 for condensate net and $3.75 net for gas. Ive updated production numbers to what i think they might average on tubing at *500 bcpd then 700bcpd *and 2.5mmgpd. Got 30% and 50% declines. Using original drilling schedule of 10 in 2010, 15 in 2011, 25 in 2012. Applied total of 40% for tax and royalties starting in 2011, assuming 2010 is tax free from offsets.

Note it has 10% of the value of the next years wells built in. 

I believe and its only opinion so DYOR and seek expert advice. But i believe this is realistic somewhere between PE of 10 in the top table and 12 in the bottom table of the two. However if the Turnbulls come out with high numbers, who knows?



Cross check as may contain errors. always seek expert advice. always do your own research and take full responsibility for your own investment decisions.


----------



## condog (10 May 2010)

Very interesting read, From the John Campbell's weekly oil and gas newsletter, that another punter brought to my attention.

*This bit about a date for Kowalick is new.*


> "The JV expects to have one more recompleted well, *Kowalik #1H*, and one new well, Rancho Grande #1H, in production *by the end of June*."





*Also of note*, giving confidence to new punters.


> " The *numbers stand up to close scrutiny*. The professionalism and experience of Hilcorp has made all the difference to a project we once derided. *All three companies involved are competently managed and factual and transparent in their presentations*. There is little of the hyperbole that accompanies so many of the junior Aussie oilers operating in the US. So the share price of the JV partners have not been inflated with b/s."





I said this for the last 6months in the ADI threads and in here and have been publicly bagged for it , but i totally agree with John Campbell that this fact derisks AUT somewhat compared to its two partners.-



> "And for ADI and EKA the drilling priorities of Hilcorp could become an issue if Longhorn and Ipanema prove even better fields than Sugarloaf."



dont get me wrong if your a holder of both. ADI imo will do very well, but imo AUT is safer and should do better.


----------



## Agentm (10 May 2010)

condog said:


> Very interesting read, From the John Campbell's weekly oil and gas newsletter, that another punter brought to my attention.
> 
> *This bit about a date for Kowalick is new.*
> 
> ...




john campbell has been the biggest  single critic of the management of the jvp partners for so many years now, his credibility on the eagleford-sugarkane play is ZERO  condog

but his praise for the hilcorp team and the jvp management is totally endorsed by me. for the first time john campbell has put his admission of derision for the jvp partners management

this is what appeared on the other thread.. i will clean it up a little..

The Sugarloaf trio, Adelphi Energy, Eureka Energy and Aurora Oil & Gas reported initial flush production of 5.15 mmcf of gas and 2,046 barrels of condensate from their Morgan #1 well and 6.81 mmcf of gas and 780 barrels of condensate from the Easley #1 well. 

The trio acknowledged that these initial production rates were not indicative of a short or long term production profile. But they claimed the rates compared very favourably to results achieved by other participants in the wider Eagle Ford Shale play.

The current four Sugarloaf wells could return $13,000,000 gross a year to ADI and AUTs 10% equity interest. So far we have the following daily production profile for the Hilcorp farm in wells: 
Well Gas Condensate mmscfep/d 
Weston # 1H * 5.70 mmscf 378 bocpd 9.1 mmscfe 
Kennedy #1H * 2.47 mmscf 540 bocpd 9.6 mmscfe 
Easley #1H ** 6.81 mmscf 780 bocpd 31.0 mmscfe 
Morgan #1H ** 5.15 mmscf 2,046 bocpd 17.9 mmscfe 
Total 20.13 mmscf 3,744 bocpd 67.6 mmscfe # 

* 60 day average. Recompleted previously drilled wells. 
** Initial production. New wells. 
H stands for horizontal. 
# Converted at 12:1 that is 1 bo equals 12,000 cubic feet of gas (12 mcf). 

Adelphi Energy and Aurora Oil & Gas each have a 10% interest in the Sugarloaf project after Hilcorp‟s farm in. Eureka Energy has 6.25%. 

So ADI and AUT have net daily production on the above numbers of 6.76 mmscfe/day. Or 2 mmcfs/d and 374 barrels of condensate per day. One mmcf of gas at US$4.00 per mcf is worth a gross US$4,000 a day or US$120,000 a month or US$1,460,000 a year. One hundred barrels of condensate at say US$75 a barrel is worth US$7,500 a day or US$225,000 a month or US$2,700,000 a year. 

*So provided flow rates don‟t change and oil and gas prices remain the same, ADI and AUT could be looking at some US$13,000,000 a year in gross sales revenue from the first four wells alone.* But flow rates will decline. That‟s inevitable. How fast only time will tell. It is not unusual to see up to a 30% decline in the first year. That decline could be offset by higher prices. 

The break even gas price for the project looks to be around US$2.73 an mcf, reportedly the lowest of all US shale plays. And of course by drilling more wells. The JV expects to have one more recompleted well, Kowalik #1H, and one new well, Rancho Grande #1H, in production by the end of June. 

In Adelphis recent investor presentation it claims up to 200 potential new well locations on the 23,500 acre lease that is the Sugarloaf AMI. With full scale, multi rig development to commence in 2011 when the JV partners will pay for development wells at their respective equity interest level. The Sugarloaf project‟s economics look very strong. *The numbers stand up to close scrutiny. The professionalism and experience of Hilcorp has made all the difference to a project we once derided. All three companies involved are competently managed and factual and transparent in their presentations*. 

There is little of the hyperbole that accompanies so many of the junior Aussie oilers operating in the US. So the share price of the JV partners have not been inflated with b/s.

Which stock to support is a question. 

Adelphi, Aurora or Eureka with its slightly smaller equity interest. 

Aurora has an interest (50%) in the Longhorn and Ipanema projects in the same Sugarkane field. These are AMIs not shared by Adelphi or Eureka. And Hilcorp is now drilling the first two of three farm in wells on Longhorn (Turnbull #1 and Turnbull #2) with one farm in well to come on Ipanema. So the Longhorn and Ipanema acreage that only Aurora has the interest in provides Aurora with three times the net acreage interest that it, ADI and EKA have in Sugarloaf. Paterson Securities recently put a research paper on Aurora with a target price of $0.92

*(this line next look like a real typo,, where they say adelphi imho instead of AUT... but he is correct in his calculations that AUT need capital )*

But bear in mind that Adelphi like Adelphi and Eureka before it, will likely need to raise more capital to meet their drilling commitments if, as seems anticipated, Hilcorp will go hell for leather in developing the three AMIs. We don‟t know what a well costs but assume it is around US$5 million so payback is reasonably quick at less than six months. In short it probably doesn‟t matter which of the three stocks one chooses. 

Adelphi which is currently raising money at $0.25 and Eureka Energy are our current preferences given the leverage of their lower share prices when compared to Aurora. 

This past week ADI dropped from $0.295 to $0.275, AUT from $0.65 to $0.61 and EKA from $0.14 to $0.13. The drivers for these stocks will be the news flow as Hilcorp gets on with the drilling and completes and places more wells on production. The third well Rancho Grande was due to be fracced and completed this month. And for Aurora only, results from the Turnbull wells can‟t be too far away. The possible downside is a dramatic fall in gas prices though we don‟t see them falling much further as the US economy rebounds. It is always possible decline rates will exceed expectations, though the JV doesn‟t think that will happen based on analogue fields. And for ADI and EKA the drilling priorities of Hilcorp could become an issue if Longhorn and Ipanema prove even better fields than Sugarloaf.


----------



## condog (10 May 2010)

Agent i dont buy it. If hilcorp accellerate they may need capital, but it will depend on which acerage and by how much they accellerate, as well as the impending turnbull and ipenema results, as well as the Kowalik fix up. 

So for you or even John to say they need capital and put it in read is pure speculative rubbich at this stage.

I have questioned Jon Stewart from AUT on this many times. His latest conversation with me was that cash position is better then i estimated. If hilcorp do not accellerate plans it is unlikely they will need capital. If they doo theres a lot of other variables that come into play as to if they will at all or how much.  

*So anything else at this stage is complete speculation and unfounded.*

Happy to be proven wrong in time but at present thats the way it is.


----------



## condog (11 May 2010)

Almost bed time , Dow up 390+ and oil up strongly $2 at 12.25am and tapering. Hopefully a strong 150-200 day on the ords will see AUT set new highs on Tuesday in light of the Morgan results still yet to see a new high. 

Remember Morgan came out with flows equivelent to 3 wells for most other locations and it was on a shockeer of a day and down since. So hopefully that will now get built in somewhat.


----------



## mir (11 May 2010)

EUROZ puts $1.02 on AUT
Australian Equities Research




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.64) Buy, Initiation of Coverage 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Initiation of Coverage

Investment Highlights

4      AUT is a liquids-rich shale gas producer, focused upon the highly prospective Eagle Ford Shale in on-shore Texas.

4      Low geological risk underpins a growing production profile, reserve base and strong earnings.

4      AUT hold a material position within the high condensate yielding Sugarkane Field within the Eagle Ford Shale trend. 

4      JV partnership with Hilcorp provides experienced shale gas operator to extract maximum value from the acreage. 

4      Flow rates (initial, 30 and 60 day), from AUT’s existing wells are among the best recorded in the Eagle Ford to date.

4      Recent transactions value prospective shale acreage in the US at US$19,000/acre and include all of the Majors. This values AUT @ A$210m or $0.95/sh.

4      AUT is cheap with EV/boe of A$4/boe, based on 1C resources of 100bcf gas and 17mmbbls of condensate.

4      An upgrade to resources and a maiden reserve expected Sept Q’10, with at least 6-7 wells on production by mid-year.

4      Continued reserves growth with an active drilling campaign over the next 10 years. 

4      On current conservative production forecasts, AUT can be +2mmboe (or 5,500boepd) producer by FY’13 and double total production by FY’15.

4      AUT has A$9m in cash and no debt.

4      Quality management, underpinned by strong technical team and a strategic partnership with a proven shale gas operator.

4      We initiate coverage with Buy and a price target of $1.02/sh.


----------



## condog (11 May 2010)

mir said:


> EUROZ puts $1.02 on AUT
> * We initiate coverage with Buy and a price target of $1.02/sh.*




Nothing short of sensational to have two brokerage houses reccomending the stock a buy now to two lots of clients, at almost 50% of its ST valuation.

This is outstanding news for AUT and its holders.

Its the song we have known and been singing for some time. And having two brokers valuaing it with a buy so blatently under priced now puts pressure on other brokers to reccomend it to thier clients if they find it stands up to the story Pattersons and euroz are saying.


----------



## condog (11 May 2010)

By the way, imo those that have thier fill of AUT should actively be asking there own brokers to start covering this stock, even so blatently as emailing them the links to the patterson and Euroz reports.

A few star ratings of this thread wouldnt hurt either.


----------



## Sdajii (11 May 2010)

Personally, I hope it stays low for at least another 3-6 months. After that it can fly to the moon and beyond, and I'll enjoy the ride, but I want a bit more time to give me the chance to stick another finger or two into this pie! Unless you are wanting to sell out in the near future or capital raising is required (which you can't take part in) I can't see any urgency in getting the price to rise. The longer it stays under the radar the better, because it just gives us more time to buy in. Imagine if in six months time there were a few more wells with excellent flow rates and the price was still around current levels! I know that would make me very happy!


----------



## 5haretrader (11 May 2010)

Theres been a bit of talk of AUT cap raising in 2011. What time of the year is this most likely to occur?


----------



## condog (11 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Theres been a bit of talk of AUT cap raising in 2011. What time of the year is this most likely to occur?




This is a highly contentious and debated issue. Management reckons they have enough capital and cash flow to see the program with minimal to no CR, possible use of a debt facility or other options.

However. IF Hilcorp advance the program they may need more capital if they want it to proceed. I wouldnt be objecting as it will ad value quicker then the 5-10c price jab we cop. But managment have a clear preference to avoid much dilutive CR.

At the moment id rather focus on the massive injection of new purchasers having multiple brokers will provide. Sadjii, while your philosophy about having a rip roaring buying opportunity under the radar carries water, I now own enough that i definitely want a rocket under the sp.

I think we will see a Rancho completion announcment on or before monday with the possibility of T1 next week also. Depending on markets these could be significant price catalysts.


----------



## Sdajii (11 May 2010)

Whether you want that rocket fired now or later depends on whether or not you're planning to buy any more. I want to buy more before the rocket is launched, so I want them to stay low until I have the capital, which will probably be in about 2-3 months. You have no reason to wait. If I had the capital available today I'd be accumulating ADI rather than AUT, but that situation seems to change almost daily lately.


----------



## condog (11 May 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Whether you want that rocket fired now or later depends on whether or not you're planning to buy any more. I want to buy more before the rocket is launched, so I want them to stay low until I have the capital, which will probably be in about 2-3 months. You have no reason to wait. If I had the capital available today I'd be accumulating ADI rather than AUT, but that situation seems to change almost daily lately.




To pull off a day trade that would be wise but imo for even a ST investment youd be crazy. Watch this psace in teh next few weeks and you will see why.

Agent may recall telling me i was almost crazy for picking AUT over ADI due to leasing costs back in Dec January, but ti has proven an excellent decision, and in my honest opinion the next few weeks with Turnbull will probably make that decision many times better.

Watch this space.


----------



## Agentm (11 May 2010)

dont recall that myself condog.. 

but you right to mention those leasing costs, they are off the dial and the more acreages you have the less capital you will have available for wells and higher and higher those leases become to renew each time a well is opened up.. with aut the biggest concern is the ability to retain acreages and the ability to fund those wells should they need development. 

a week ago you told me you had an email with an assurance of no cap raisings for aut.. and now your not as assured? you seem to be an advocate of it and now see some benefit of having one? thats a huge turn around 

its curious timings out there isnt it? new broker and all this talk of a cap raising by john campbell?

i think any cap raising will be unpopular.. but i dont think any of the jvp partners can ignore the future either.

watching that space for sure...


----------



## condog (11 May 2010)

i do , but thats cool - all good, ive got you to thank for AUT being on my Radar. A lot has changed in 6 months , with acerages no being a valuable asset and sought after chigh priced commodity, even an advantage.

ive got the emails alright, but since then theres been a lot of chitter / chatter about hilcorp advancing the entire drilling program.

My conversations / emails had no relevance to an advanced program, just the current program. 

So with an advanced program my guess is as good as yours. But with no change im very confident we wont see a CR, or if we do it would be tiny and a last priority method. I think an SPP or debt facility is clearly the preferrred method.

I generally hate CR's but imagine what $15M CR at say 60c could do = 25M shares thus an 11% dilution, but it would fund an equivelent 10 wells at 25% interest on longhorn. you tell me that aint gunna blow 10 c to kindom come and back. On that basis an advancement of the program is welcome with a cR thats well timed and well priced. But ONLY if its for an advancement of the program.

10 wells on Longhorn could easily increase the mcap by 100M. / 245M shares = 41c per share added value.

I would happily welcome a 60c insto CR this week , but i dont think we will see it. 

I sent a copy of Euroz report to Jon, hopefully it might appear or a reference to it on the web site.


----------



## AngusSmart (12 May 2010)

Condog, you were speaking of a rocket up the share price before.

hows this for an oil company on the LSE

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/...y-chart.html?fourWayKey=GB00B0FVQX23GBGBXAMSM

I hope atleast when there is  CR we get an option to buy! not some shmuck banker that presses b instead of m..


----------



## condog (12 May 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Condog, you were speaking of a rocket up the share price before.
> 
> hows this for an oil company on the LSE
> 
> ...




Read the two news announcments that go with it, that imo will retrace back down by half or more as its still speculative. AUT on the other hand is clinical, strategic, progressive and very much de-risked.

When you look at that co, it makes AUT look excellent.


----------



## estseon (12 May 2010)

The previous plan was to start the ramp up of Longhorn & Ipanema in 2011. AUT's cash looks fine for anything on S/L or ADI (which has the same WI) has got its figure wrong, which is unlikely. So a CR will be for drilling in the other 2 acreages. What's the problem? The BBs have got obsessed with dilution or potential dilution from new issues. If you want to hedge against a "moderate" CR to fund development of the other acreages, add now 20% to your holding and you should be well covered. With Rancho due soon, a possible rescue of Kowalik and Turnbull 1 also relatively soon, an early CR should be at a higher issue price anyway provided that calm is restored to the markets. So, then you can jeer at those who waited for their rights to hold their indirect interest in the acreages firm and, if there is a rights issue, you could trade it.

If you are not expecting the price to move higher with further S/L results, Turnbull 1 and restored calm to the markets, then perhaps you should consider cashing in.

I'm trying a different strategy. I switched my holding back into ADI with the hope of returning with a larger holding sometime soon. The ADI SP has been thrashed for some reason and so I'm taking risk on it regaining lost ground against AUT. Anyone can try that. I hope to 'make' double the potential dilution. So, don't worry about the potential/prospective CR, hedge against it.


----------



## estseon (12 May 2010)

Re Depletions:

Go to http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/PDQ/quickLeaseReportBuilderAction.do

 Lease 245465 (gas well) district 02 for the period 1/1/09 to 1/1/10 Baker 1

The production is all over the shop but at Jan 09 was 10.3 MMCFG + 2,148 bbls and in Jan 10 was 25.6mmcfg + 1,867 bbls.

It was obviously shut in during part of Sep 09 for further works. Possibly Nov 09 also. COP won't stop tinkering with them. It's in the chalk. EME has an interest in this one.

March 09 was 47.2 mmcfg + 3,862 bbls - that was the peak.

So Jan 10 was 50% of the peak subject to the caveat that the operator is constantly tinkering with it. The 12 month comparison gives 250% gas and 85% of oil - no depletion if the two are taken together.

These are actual results in Live Oak, next door.


----------



## condog (12 May 2010)

estseon said:


> I'm trying a different strategy. I switched my holding back into ADI with the hope of returning with a larger holding sometime soon. The ADI SP has been thrashed for some reason and so I'm taking risk on it regaining lost ground against AUT.




Esteon, this is the craziest thing you have ever said.

And by the way esteon is usually one you can totally trust to speak total sense.

I agree ADI is oversold and when the backlog of mates rates - oops i mena institutional investors clears, they will respond. But in that time which could take a week to 3 weeks depedning on volume, we are likely to see not only Rancho, but most likely Turnbull 1 , possibly turnbull 2 Ip's by then. If Turnbull 1 comes out brilliant, at a 25% interest, hence 250% revenue stream compared to AMI wells AUT could get a massive rerating, brokerage update, or sp boost. 

Its a brave or stupid or brilliant move which only time will tell. But i dont think its hedging, i think its crazy, but i totally respect your right and opinion to do so.  Fact is though chase the best growth opportunities you see available.


----------



## mir (13 May 2010)

condog
i have to agree, my major holding is AUT & never sold a share ,i did hold about 500000 EKA but down to 150000 now & buying AUT (on my first sale of EKA i got 1 AUT for 3 EKA , my next sale i got 1 AUT for 4 EKA) if i can get 1 AUT for 4 EKA on the result from rancho i will take it as i believe after rancho the news flow & activity for ADI & EKA will be slow for a few months & all eyes on AUT.


----------



## condog (13 May 2010)

mir said:


> condog
> i have to agree, my major holding is AUT & never sold a share ,i did hold about 500000 EKA but down to 150000 now & buying AUT (on my first sale of EKA i got 1 AUT for 3 EKA , my next sale i got 1 AUT for 4 EKA) if i can get 1 AUT for 4 EKA on the result from rancho i will take it as i believe after rancho the news flow & activity for ADI & EKA will be slow for a few months & all eyes on AUT.




Yeh, not only that but as i said with the Turnbull wells they are 250% earnings accruive after cost recovery by hilcorp. Which is like having 2.5 wells on the AMI for AUT and none for EKA or ADI. So if by then end of the farmin on the AMI, there is Kennedy, Weston, Easly, Morgan and Rancho Flowing, then turnbull 1 and turnbull 2 flow prior to him getting back into AUT, then AUT would in my opinion get a 5 AMI wells equivelent  IP jump in share price on ADI and EKA.  ie they would have 5 wells at 10% = 50% net well, where as AUT would have 5 at 10%+ 2 at 25% = 100% of 1 net well.

The two turnbulls have the potential in my opinion if they are good to do to AUT what the 5 wells have done for it. In other words 4 wells took it from approx 27c to 71.5, Rancho it mught achieve 80c . which is an approx 53c jump around 200%. Technically two good turnbull wells could also give a 53c jump in sp to 1.33 or so?   ITs only a guess, but by providing the numbers here it explains my thinking. Even if Rancho can only get AUT to 75c, then thats a 48c rise and the turnbulls 1 & 2 have the potential to take it another 48c or so to approx $1.13 in the next few weeks.

I agree ADI is under priced to billy o due to CR, but sellling AUT's now in my opinion is questionable at best. Esteon each player has his own tactics and go for it if you believ its the way to go, im not bagging you, but i think that strategy might come un stuck and i wouldnt like to see others pinning hopes on it. But who knows AUT might hit resistance while ADI rebounds and you might laugh all the way to the bank. But imo thats not as likey to happen as the scenario above, as ADI is likely imo to be littered with 22,000,000 sellers plus the traders jumping on deck likeyourself because its cheap who all will presumably off load for a few cents profit, holding the price down for up to a month or so imo. With a bit of luck for ADI holders som instos will exercise some restraint, but its likely they will see a quick profit and just jump out.

All opinion. these prices are just guesses, so DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## estseon (13 May 2010)

"Esteon, this is the craziest thing you have ever said."

You could be right, Condog. But ADI has heavier gearing to Rancho on a per share basis and Rancho must be soon. It is inevitable that price dislocations between the JVPs will appear from time to time and ADI is being trashed for some reason. Ultimately, I'd like to even up holdings in the two companies. But for now, ADI has some catching up to do. That's just my view, of course. If I'm wrong, I may lose some of the gain that I have earned on AUT but that is investing. If I had not, in February, acted on the view I had that AUT was badly undervalued as compared to ADI, I wouldn't have made that gain anyway.

As it so happens, I found it surprisingly difficult to buy the ADI shares. There was a bit of volatility and I can only use limit orders. But even so, I was a bit surprised.

It says nothing about my view on AUT as an investment - I'll be back at the right price ratio. I certainly want to be back in before the ramp-up - that is, the new programme for Longhorn and Ipanema. Actual prices are not of concern to me at the moment. They will be only relevant to me when I will be thinking of cashing in part or all. That won't be until Q1 2011 at the earliest unless something extraordinary happens or I need the cash. However, rumours of the new government's intentions for UK CGT might force me, if true, to deliberately trigger the gain before April 2011. Plenty of time to worry about it and I might do a 31 day switch to achieve it (there are anti Bed & Breakfasting rules) but stay invested. It might cost me money but not as much as the tax being rumoured - up to 50%.

So, you could be right, or I could be right. But, if there's a chance to add to my holding, I have to consider the balance of probabilities and that's how I read it at the moment.


----------



## Slipperz (13 May 2010)

Looks like the US is bringing in an emissions trading scheme.

If ratified this  will have to be good news for the natural gas industry, especially with regards to power station construction.

The fact reserves are plentiful and plays like the eagle ford are coming onstream in the US may actually work in our favour in coming years.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/australia-left-behind-by-us-emission-trading-bill-20100512-uy9m.html


----------



## condog (13 May 2010)

Yeh ive been mentioning this for a while. Lots of US energy users are making preperations so that when / if  legislation arrives to smash their emmissions they can survive. Right now the logical move is to shift to gas at low prices and plentiful supply for the next 20-100 years.

Its a good hedge to have.


----------



## condog (15 May 2010)

Esteon has founder an article of very high interst that sparks a few amazing options for the JVP's and in my opinion and clearly esteons may be the reason for the  CR from ADI so soon


> Dont shoot the messenger
> 
> http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=15569579&from=80490
> 
> ...




Consider the implications if this is correct.

At some point in Q3 or Q4 the JVP,s will decied they have enough cash and are close enough to being earnings accruive to accellerate the program if thats the intention of Hilcorp.

At that point say they go to 3 rigs. thats say 120- 180 days before they see the cash flow from the first 3 they drill. In that 120 - 180 days the 3 rigs will presumably drill and frac 12-18 wells.

So "if" hilcorp can drill and frac in short windows of time, thus reducing drilled inventory costs to the JVP's, (ie dont leave drilled holes waiting for frac crews, because of the Capital shortage it creates) , then potentially this is very feasable. At say 10% interest the parties would need to be able to cover a capital expense of apporx $9-11 Million to get a 3 rig program off the ground. 

another way of looking at ti is. If they start with a 1 rig program they need approx $3-$5M imo to cover the CAPEX. If they then want to accellerate the program, depending on flows and costs imo, they need an extra $3-5M per rig they want to add to the program.

So if we assume the current free carried wells become earnigns accruive to AUT in say Early October at a rate of conservatively $1.5m per month.
They will likely have enough cash to begin its own JVP/hilcorp drilling program with a one rig program in August. Or a 2 rig program in mid to late September.
They could then add a rig every 3 - 4 months imo.

I estimate they need minimum $9M to get a three rig program up and running when they are close to being earnings acruive form current program.

So i think this blokes top end of 5 rigs in h2, is overly ambitious, but certainly a 3 rig program is an outside  possibility. Likely scenario imo is 2 rigs till early 2011, escalating by a rig every 3 -5 months or so.


----------



## Slipperz (15 May 2010)

US natural gas reserves at at an all time high yet the price continues to rise.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp

Either consumption needs to rise or the price is bound to take a hit at some point. 

Was a good week for AUT holders again. Personally I took a bit of profit off my AUT for a speculative buy on AED which has had a nice run up this week also. If they do happen to hit an oil reservoir in Brunei the price rise will be spectacular. 

General market conditions seem to be negative yet these two stocks have strong buy/sell ratios and are in a strong uptrend.

Looks like Monday will be a sea of red.  I hope Rancho results don't get released on Monday like the last amazing result got trashed by a wave of panicked sellers.


----------



## condog (15 May 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Looks like Monday will be a sea of red.  I hope Rancho results don't get released on Monday like the last amazing result got trashed by a wave of panicked sellers.




One mans loss in anothers buying opportunity. Gives those who want more a great opportunity if it does get smacked around by the general market on or after a great result.  Play smart


----------



## condog (17 May 2010)

Tree shakers in trying to make it look like the stocks going up and down

Reality, market will drag it down slightly imo this morning, buut like last time we where extremely resilient and we bounced almost first. So opportunities might be limited??

Enjoy the volitility this morning.

While we await the next two brilliant flows??

That big morgan sucker must have almost paid itself off by now and will soon be contributing toward rocketing the repayment of other wells. Got to love morgan.


----------



## Speculator (17 May 2010)

condog said:


> Tree shakers in trying to make it look like the stocks going up and down
> 
> Reality, *market will drag it down slightly imo this morning,* buut like last time we where extremely resilient and we bounced almost first. So opportunities might be limited??
> 
> ...





Nice to be wrong for once huh Condog 

Adi take over offer (although despicably low) has finally given the play the attention it deserves, momentum really building and with a nice flow of news inc I have never been happier to hold a stock.


----------



## AngusSmart (17 May 2010)

Loving life at the moment too, need to hang onto Aut for a while longer however..

Bought adi lastweek @ 27c.. great that there is some attention on both of them now! hanging on for the ride!


----------



## eopiela (17 May 2010)

Rancho won't be out tomorrow, no matter how much we wish it would be.  Pipeline to sales is not built yet.  



Slipperz said:


> US natural gas reserves at at an all time high yet the price continues to rise.
> 
> Either consumption needs to rise or the price is bound to take a hit at some point.
> 
> ...


----------



## condog (17 May 2010)

More relevant right now is the massive day we just had and the ADI takeover action.

Its rediculously under priced imo for a takeover offer.

I hope like hell we dont get one for AUT. The real value is just about to be untapped and any takeover should be vermently rejected imo , by any JVP's and thier boards.

Right now i value AUt over $1, in 12-18 months that could possibly be $3-$6 depending on results. This is my own opinion. But its also the reason these takeover offers may come thick and fast for all JVP's.

EKA must be a sitting duck as well given its exposure and low market cap.


----------



## Slipperz (17 May 2010)

Oh yes indeed what a day.

I just made the largest one day profit I've ever made on market on the worst day in yonks. 

And the sell side only has 150 000 left after the closing auction frenzy which will make tomorrows action pretty interesting.

Well done to all holders !
:bananasmi


----------



## condog (17 May 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Oh yes indeed what a day.
> 
> I just made the largest one day profit I've ever made on market on the worst day in yonks.
> 
> ...




Yes i must say some pretty staggering :bananasmi un realized profits on my books :bananasmi . Last week i sold almost all my other holdings and put most of it in to AUT. :bananasmi

:bananasmi What timing. :bananasmi



DYOR and seek expert advice. I been wrong once and will be again.  :bananasmi


----------



## Sharejon (17 May 2010)

Slipperz same here.

I'm glad something caused the price to rise today, otherwise financially it would have been quite a dull day.

And I was thinking the same Condog, EKA looks quite vulnerable for a takeover. Once again any sign of takeover talks could lead to a dramatic price rise for EKA, however I hope that the company isn't sold out for a 'cheap' price (relative to the potential of the company).


----------



## condog (17 May 2010)

Sharejon said:


> Slipperz same here.
> 
> I'm glad something caused the price to rise today, otherwise financially it would have been quite a dull day.
> 
> And I was thinking the same Condog, EKA looks quite vulnerable for a takeover. Once again any sign of takeover talks could lead to a dramatic price rise for EKA, however I hope that the company isn't sold out for a 'cheap' price (relative to the potential of the company).




Sharejon are you aware of the ADI takeover offer today at 40c. It appears you might not be. Thats part of what triggered the price rise today.

We need to reject all offers till we get our real values built in. 

We also need to make the next financial year to avoid CGT implications, better still July next year to allow all holders to have discoutn CGT and two financial years to offload some profits.

Reject reject reject


----------



## 5haretrader (17 May 2010)

Condog I am of the opinion that an AUT takeover from AWE is not likely. They have something like a 35% share in ADI which is why their bid today holds some substance. For AUT, it would take something completely out of the blue for a takeover to occur. Or am I completely off the rails with where takeover discussion is going?


----------



## condog (17 May 2010)

Sharejon my confusin was the way you worded it you sounded unsure what triggered the price rise.

Too early to know, but AUT has a well established value of double ADI. By both brokers and the markets. With Turnbulls now drilling and fraccing, that gap is set to widen. So at 40c, the pressure is now on AUT valuations to be realistic or ADI holders will jump ship while the margins are reduced.

In the short term while the offer stands, pressure is on ADI holders and purchasers to keep the price above 40c to stop the takeover buying on the market. They as i understand it cannot buy under 40c. 

This in turn will likely see a second offer by them or another circling shark. Again pushing AUt higher as the relative valuations need to stay gapped imo, with so many cross traders helping it move.

On value alone these are too cheap let alone with takeover offers looming. Expect some big action. the buy sell spreads for AUT look to a very impressive day again tommorrow.

Its a case of you want em, you pay the price.


----------



## 5haretrader (17 May 2010)

I like your thinking Condog, AUT has alot of things going for it at the moment  The only thing stopping me from investing more into AUT over another company at the moment is that AUT has not experienced any retrace of sorts since its SP took off in February. Any thoughts on a possible retrace in the not to distant future? I know the price is probably still undervalued considerably, but even the best success stories in the past have had hiccups along the way.


----------



## Sharejon (17 May 2010)

condog said:


> Sharejon are you aware of the ADI takeover offer today at 40c. It appears you might not be. Thats part of what triggered the price rise today.
> 
> We need to reject all offers till we get our real values built in.
> 
> ...





Yes I was well aware of that when typing the reply. Don't ask why i said "something" instead of "ADI take-over", as simply I don't know!

I was pleasantly surprised to find out about the takeover this morning just after I saw there were over 120 million buyers in the ADI collumn, which clearly wasn't the norm.


----------



## condog (18 May 2010)

5haretrader said:


> I like your thinking Condog, AUT has alot of things going for it at the moment  The only thing stopping me from investing more into AUT over another company at the moment is that AUT has not experienced any retrace of sorts since its SP took off in February. Any thoughts on a possible retrace in the not to distant future? I know the price is probably still undervalued considerably, but even the best success stories in the past have had hiccups along the way.





We had an intraday retrace from 71.5c to 63c last week on the greece hicups. Problem is more wells = more underpriced. And the drilling and fraccing has not stopped, adding significant value constantly. If anything due to the overall market sentiment we have failed to keep value. Morgan results came out on the big down day last monday. We finished flat despite a 2000bopde well, which is crazy. that thing can pay itself off in 30-45 days and help top up to pay off an additional well every 20 days.

Since morgan we have only moved 10c which is crazy.

The buy sell disparity says it all. Dont expect any massive discounts unless something goes worng???


----------



## adobee (18 May 2010)

whats the AUT announcment out today .. i cant see it yet ? Can anyone see it at this stage ?? Please advise if you can


----------



## cooper276 (18 May 2010)

I can access it via the ASX site Adobee.
Just a company presentation to be given at the 'Annual Global Investment Conference in London'.
On first glance, doesn't appear to tell us anything we don't already know - looks like just ramping up the PR exposure.

Cheers


----------



## Sharejon (18 May 2010)

Does anybody have any predictions as to when the Rancho announcement will be made?

AUT has slipped back a little bit today, but i will not be joining the selling queue anytime soon!


----------



## condog (18 May 2010)

Sharejon said:


> Does anybody have any predictions as to when the Rancho announcement will be made?
> 
> AUT has slipped back a little bit today, but i will not be joining the selling queue anytime soon!




I believe they are waiting on the pipeline, wont be too long. I wouldnt worry we know they are going to find liquid gold, so its good they can do so carefully,


----------



## estseon (19 May 2010)

The ADI board has committed to a response by 31 May, which is a Monday. It will possibly wish to leave shareholders a bit more time to think about it before the formal start of the offer period. It's possible that we might see something by Thursday 27 May. So, not too long to wait. They've already hinted strongly that they are expecting at least 1 rig to return to S/L and they've confirmed again the ramp-up proposal starting next year.

That response document should give us the opportunity of getting a better view of what AUT might be worth. The ADI board has indicated strongly that 40 cents undervalues ADI considerably and that has implications for AUT's share price.

I would guess that, if AWE goes all the way, some ADI holders, those who want to stay invested in the project, will wait to pocket the 'control premium' that AWE will have to pay and will then migrate into  AUT & EKA.

Condog, as it so happens I earned a few free shares on the trade.

As to the rest of my holding - we have a budget scheduled for 22 June and I have to switch in before or get screwed by the new CGT rates that they are proposing. There's been so much publicity about it that they can't do a U-turn. On the basis of rumours, the difference could mean pocketing one third more cash if I act before 22 June. It's a no-brainer but it's essentially a UK tax issue. I won't be able to wait for the bid premium from AWE.


----------



## Sharejon (19 May 2010)

Esteon I Agree when you're talking about ADI holders eventually migrating into EKA/AUT.

Even if the takeover doesn't go through, if it inflates the SP enough then I'm sure many will think of taking the journey to AUT and EKA.


----------



## Slipperz (20 May 2010)

condog said:


> I believe they are waiting on the pipeline, wont be too long. I wouldnt worry we know they are going to find liquid gold, so its good they can do so carefully,




Speaking of pipelines, the infrastructure players are showing confidence in the overall risk profile of the eagleford play.

Capacity increased 150%!!!!  

"*Due to the high level of interest expressed by producers, Kinder Morgan and Copano have each increased their committed capacity from 150,000 to 375,000 MMBtu per day to Eagle Ford Gathering for transportation on Kinder Morgan's Laredo-to-Katy pipeline and processing at Copano's Houston Central processing plant.  Additionally, the joint venture expects the first phase of construction to significantly extend beyond the original 22 miles previously announced." 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kinder-Morgan-Energy-Partners-prnews-2544557938.html?x=0&.v=1&.pf=career-work&mod=pf-career-work
*


----------



## condog (20 May 2010)

Good find slipperz

Also of note in yesterdays ADI release

CR appears to have been done becase they intend to complete 6-8 wells in the next 6-9 months. Thats an advancement of the drilling program. 

Secaondly they are beginning a 250 well drilling program in 2010 / 2011

Very interesting and very news worthy. Perhaps a *MASSIVE *leak by ADI.

Ans hence why AWE tried to scoop it up at a bargain basement undervalued price.

I just sent Jon Stewart an email, 


> Hi Jon
> 
> Yesterday ADi leaked in thier T/O defence announcment to holders they have a 6-8 well plan for the next 6-9 months planned for sugar loaf . They also said a 250 well program is beginning in 2010/2011
> 
> ...


----------



## stefan_invester (20 May 2010)

what i don't get is
why is there so many people selling at these prices?
if AUT is so under valued, than wouldn't they wait, and
make the buyers bump up the price? 

oh well, guess we just gotta hold on


----------



## condog (20 May 2010)

Calcs update from around pg 16 or 17 of this thread.

9c drop in Aussie dollar since i did those calcs. Oil has dropped around $10. Gas is not different enoough to worry.

Im unsure of any currency hedging for well expenses. But assumming AUT has no hedging, i approximate the currency drop has roughly offset the decline in oil price.

I punched in a few numbers and the results are so close to previous numbers they are not worth changing. 1-2% either way max.

Note do your own research and ALWAYS seek expert advice that takes into account your individual circumstances.


----------



## estseon (20 May 2010)

What people are selling AUT?

It took me 10 mins to fill a moderate buy order at the offer price,

There's no stock on offer at the moment.


----------



## stefan_invester (20 May 2010)

yeah,
theres about 34 sellers selling 1,060,554
and 37 buyers buying 1,088,470, so im guessing
this is the reason for the constant fall in sp?


----------



## estseon (20 May 2010)

There is news awaited and a defence document containing a new valuation of the S/L project due by 31 May. It's not surprising that the SP has stalled. ADI holders will await a revised bid from AWE. If AWE is to succeed, it will have to offer some premium over valuation. AUT might lag a bit but timing is not really that important. If the value is there, it will emerge and then be further developed.


----------



## stefan_invester (20 May 2010)

hmm

extremely low volume on AUT trading today
could this be a sign of something?
does anyone know? or have any ideas?


----------



## Slipperz (21 May 2010)

Another company enters the eagleford play at $1700 per acre in the oil window. 

http://info.drillinginfo.com/urb/adactivity/eagle-ford-ad/2010/05/goodrich-jumps-into-the-eagle-ford-oil-window/


----------



## Ramblin Round (21 May 2010)

Slipperz, I've been hearing of Goodrich a lot around here lately. They hustled in pretty quick. Sounds liek a friend of a friend of a friend opened the door for them. Pure speculation of course.


----------



## condog (21 May 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> hmm
> 
> extremely low volume on AUT trading today
> could this be a sign of something?
> does anyone know? or have any ideas?




yep good disciplined holders that know the value, not willing to sell just becasue some panic merchants in other stocks dump. Thats a sign of value, and the low volume is fantastic, as it only builds buyer pressure for a bounce.


----------



## WRONG'UN (21 May 2010)

Interesting link, Slipperz

Well cost: $5m
Laterals: 4,500 - 5,000 ft
Yield: 350mboe per well (90% oil) - worth $US24m @ $US69/b

The $5m well cost is at the low end of reported well costs - if AUT can achieve the same it will dramatically improve their ability to self fund ongoing well development.


----------



## stefan_invester (21 May 2010)

I'm Thinking today is going to be the worst day for AUT
indicative price is already at 0.735.

I think that we just need to get through today, and
next week should be better... or atleast i hope so 

anyone have any thoughts on the current situation please?
thanks.


----------



## condog (21 May 2010)

marketis like a moody monster , it provides buying opportunities on days like today and selling opportunities on others.

not too concerned.

Greece is a worrry, for europe but US looking good. 

AUT already way under priced so any correction imo will be short lived and quick to return

CGT implications prevent a lot from selling.

ADI is pegged at 40c due to TO

any time we slip below 80c we become an attractive swap proposition for ADI holders, so other then a few panic merchants this morning it should rebound mid morning or arvo.


----------



## Agentm (21 May 2010)

condog said:


> marketis like a moody monster , it provides buying opportunities on days like today and selling opportunities on others.
> 
> not too concerned.
> 
> ...




cant see any reason for adi holders to swap, selling to the short termers whom are willing to buy atm is not going to help anyone..  they will just take anything on the upside and sell immediately

adi holders would be better served in holding as the advice from adi has been.

re the volatility of aut, its pretty much a staggering thing.. but EKA is not at all volatile in any way,..

great buying opportunities right now

the second turnbull well is complete and the third turnbull is about to spud

its obvious the average punter has no fraccing idea whats going down atm..

waiting for the low point in the volatile aut share and will be taking full advantage..   and definitely a huge strong HOLD on all adi shares..

lots of news is on the horizon imho.. lots of very positive news


----------



## condog (21 May 2010)

Agent as a heavy holder of aDI i dont expect you to acknowledge a reason to swap.

But its pretty well established a 2:1 ratio is the minimum, below that AUT is ggod value.

Givent the Turnbulls are iminet a 2:1 ratio is too cheap.


----------



## estseon (22 May 2010)

condog,

it's a special situation. The ADI directors should have recommended the bid had they thought that they could not justify a materially higher fair value. I would expect AUT to revalue on the back of that but ADI holders might expect a bid premium from AWE if it is serious. So, I think that normal rules are suspended for the next 10 days/2weeks.

I reversed my sale, kept 25,000 free ADI shares and acquired a few thousand more AUT free. But I'll be retaining my main ADI holding for the time being. I'd be nuts to switch before the release of the Target Statement.

Flows 50% higher than Petrohawk, as they keep pointing out, seems to be hinting at recoverable reserves based on Petrohawk's per well estimates as 50% higher as well. Hartleys had a short-term price target of 45 cents for ADI in March based on the Petrohawk estimates. Applying simple arithmetic suggests 67.5cents + premium but we'll see. 

AUT will adjust in due course but there is a bid premium to be collected on the other side.


----------



## Agentm (22 May 2010)

condog said:


> Agent as a heavy holder of aDI i dont expect you to acknowledge a reason to swap.
> 
> But its pretty well established a 2:1 ratio is the minimum, below that AUT is ggod value.
> 
> Givent the Turnbulls are iminet a 2:1 ratio is too cheap.




condog

i would swap in a heartbeat if it made sense to.

as estseon says, i would also be nuts to swap out..  i am buying AUT right now, but only because the value is there.. with the turnbull 3 well on the way and the rancho well about to demonstrate its flow.. and more rigs to arrive any day out there.. all very very positive for aut..

AUT will only appreciate on the base that the ADI bid is creating for it..

100 cents is where it should be right now.

cant see AWE staying out of the jvp partners in the future, so i view AUT as a future takeover target..

condog, you would have no idea of the size of my holdings in adi.. nor in AUT.. but your wrong in assuming i cant see things as a result of the size of my holdings.. 

AUT is great value for those like me who can see through the volatility, see the value in the upside in the near term..  but most of the aut upside will be driven by the bidding on ADI.. which has a long long way to go..


----------



## condog (22 May 2010)

Agentm said:


> condog
> 
> i would swap in a heartbeat if it made sense to.
> 
> ...




I agree with everything you say about ADI bumping AUT value up based on bid premiums and relative value.

However i also very much support the stance that AUT could stand the heat alone, given whats happening behind the scenes. No doubt ADI helps significantly, but AUT right now imo is a prime asset rapidly appreciating in value, irrespective of what market emotions are doing to sp.

I stand by the fact any time its under 2:1 its an absolute screaming by to short term ADI holder, as it provided a lot of value on the swap. With turnbulls about to crack and Ipenema its even better value now at 2:1.

Theres some possibilities of quick cash in aDI if they raise the bid, which i think they will have to, but thats not a given. $1 for AUt is still cheap in my opinion. But i do hold and am biased.

Imagine if the T/O does get up , irrespective of price. All those eagleford investors currently holding ADI will look for exposure to the same project through either AUT or EKA, some may look elsewhere at AZZ.

But id imagine at a minimum $30M will be looking for a home in AUT. At average 85c thats 53 million shares ADI holders will be looking for. 
This week seelers have averaged about 1m on low turniver, on big turnover days we often sit below 200k sells. Where in the hell are 53Million AUT shares going to come from, and what will that do to the sp.

My guess is it will rocket us past the $1.20 mark and then managment would be stupid not to do a $20M CR and advance drilling on longhorn. Or even find some new acerage in the oil window and look for a new JV partner.

EKA id imagine will face the same wonderful problem. AUT should even consider and EKA T/O if they can forsee this.

Just my hypothesis, feel free to disagree.


----------



## estseon (22 May 2010)

What is pretty certain is that ADI directors will reveal a fair value for ADI materially above that implied by the current offer price and that will be by Monday week. Quite how the market positions itself in advance of then remains to be seen. However, it must be tempting to AUT & EKA shareholders to do a bit of trading even if it is only to grab an uplift on the back of the statement and return before a revised offer from AWE. I'm not suggesting that any of the large holders will sell out - the market's too thin to accommodate that anyway. But many might be tempted to have a small dabble.

I won't - most of my holding is there anyway.

But it will be AWE driving the prices, not fundamentals, for the next few weeks at least. Many of the ADI long-term holders will want to squeeze that fruit dry before moving on. Some need to see 50% + rise just to get their money back. It's painful to sell at a loss even if the logic may be there. They've had a very fraught time of it just as I have had with EME. This project has now been going for over 4 years. All of the progress has been made in the last 5 months.


----------



## condog (22 May 2010)

Your dead set right about the last 5 months, they have turned this from a company with potential, to one with a very bright future.

We will have enough news flow to drive past current prices on Ranch, T1, T2, T3 and IP1, irresepcitve of what AWE does. Right now with a 40c offer on the table its hard to see AUT going below 75c range, and with the news flows coming it should rocket away from that range.

The question you got to ask yourself is if ADI is so cheap at 40c that someone wants to buy the company, and holders dont want to sell, with 6 wells, then what is AUT worth with 10 wells and the extra acerage. On that basis 75-80c looks rediculously cheap.


----------



## AngusSmart (26 May 2010)

New Updates on Aurora

Turnbull #2H
Aurora has been advised by the Operator that the Turnbull #2H well has been drilled to a final depth of 16,854ft and the production casing has been run and cemented in place with over 5,000 ft of reservoir section. The well is now ready for a multi-stage fracture stimulation operation similar to that carried out in recent Aurora well stimulations.

With the completion of the Turnbull #2H well operations the rig has now skidded to an adjacent well location on the same drilling pad and is presently preparing to spud the Turnbull #3H well.

These wells arent shared bu Adi and eka are they? i wasnt aware they were doing them at the same time as the Joint venture lot.. sounds good anyway!!


----------



## mir (26 May 2010)

AngusSmart
turnbull wells 1,2,3 & one more in ipanema acreage will be drilled by hilcorp free carry  for AUT (eka & adi not in these wells)to complete farm out.


----------



## jancha (26 May 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> New Updates on Aurora
> 
> Turnbull #2H
> Aurora has been advised by the Operator that the Turnbull #2H well has been drilled to a final depth of 16,854ft and the production casing has been run and cemented in place with over 5,000 ft of reservoir section. The well is now ready for a multi-stage fracture stimulation operation similar to that carried out in recent Aurora well stimulations.
> ...




Any ideas as to when the flow rates will come out on Turnbull #2H ?
Share price dropping in line with the POO or the market in general?
Currently 69c. 
Just wondering if ADI would be a safer option with it's 40c buy offer in place where as AUT seems to be more vunerable to further price falls.


----------



## Ramblin Round (27 May 2010)

Sure is jancha....go ahead and buy some today ! Run out and load up on it if you've got the play money. I'm wishing I had more cash to load up on ADI.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (27 May 2010)

Dropped another 2.5c this morning in the first 50 minutes of trading.  Looks like AUT has run pretty hard fairly quickly and it's having a breather whilst we wait for concrete news from the JV participants.


----------



## bennywizard (27 May 2010)

If the ADI info next week is strong, then ADI should go up, AUT should then get dragged up with it, AUT has these extra wells on the way...Doesn't that make AUT an even better buy right now?  I guess it will depend on the success of these new wells...I've topped up my AUT in the last few days. (I hold AUT, ADI and EKA)


----------



## condog (28 May 2010)

Id imagine Ip's out for Rancho next week and an update on Turnbulls.

AUT is way too cheap imo and a danger at present of similar fete to ADI. 

Rancho and turnbulls should be factored in, but the current consolidation has wiped out Morgan let alone Ranch and Turnbull anticipations.

92c should be easy in 2 weeks time on tha back of Morgan easing back into a more positive market, Rancho and possibly two turnbulls.

All opinion so DYOR.


----------



## Slipperz (29 May 2010)

Shell has amassed a pretty impressive acreage this year.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-dutch-shell-plc-acquires-new-positions-in-us-tight-gas-95088679.html


----------



## adobee (29 May 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Shell has amassed a pretty impressive acreage this year.
> 
> http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-dutch-shell-plc-acquires-new-positions-in-us-tight-gas-95088679.html




_In addition, as part of its on-going acreage build strategy, Shell has acquired ~250,000 net acres (1,000 square kilometers) of mineral rights in the Eagle Ford shale play, in South Texas, in 2010. These undeveloped acreage positions are in the liquids rich window of the Eagle Ford play. Shell will be the operator in this highly contiguous acreage, and will be able to integrate these new assets into its existing South Texas operations, where Shell has been active for many years._


I took a stake in AUT on Friday.. I think its trading pretty low at the moment too considering how much the marketing is starting to take notice of the Eagleford. ..


----------



## condog (29 May 2010)

adobee said:


> I took a stake in AUT on Friday.. I think its trading pretty low at the moment too considering how much the marketing is starting to take notice of the Eagleford. ..




Very much agree , its becoming pandamic in terms of media attention in the US. starting to pick up speed in AUS. But with cash flow soon to start, well results due, acerage prices climbing, take overs picking up , its all heading in the right direction. The oil price softened but seems to have platuaed, and with China in double digits, plus US growing slowly, world 4.5% growth it looks good at present. Hurricanes and Korea may also help with upward pressure.


----------



## condog (30 May 2010)

i raid an intersting opinion this morning that I totally agree with and is worth noting.

Obama's reaction to the BP spill has added significant political , environmental and economic risk to off shore drilling. Yesterday we raid news about Shell making massive acquisitions in the Eagleford.

These majors who have billions of dollars of offshore investment funds on hold, need to hedge risk and find other developments as priorities. Right now the Eagleford is the obvious choice for companies servicing US demand.

Expect imo  to see massive amounts of new takeover and acquisition in all the US shale plays. In particular the Eagleford, becasue its less developed and controlled by a diversity of smaller players compared to other shale plays.

Yet another massive price catalyst for all Eagleford players int he zone.


----------



## stefan_invester (31 May 2010)

hey
im not very good with company announcements, but has anyone read the ADI announcement concerning the AWE takeover?
and does anyone know if this is good news for us AUT holders or not?
thankss


----------



## AngusSmart (31 May 2010)

Its alot of pages but i'm reading thru some of it now...

The Independent Expert’s preferred fair market value of each Adelphi Share is $0.61. The AEL Offer represents a discount of $0.2 (or 34.43%) to this preferred fair market value. The Independent Expert has concluded that the AEL Offer is neither fair nor reasonable.

Its a pretty good ploy really for awe and adi, along with the other partners as it's promoting the company.. should see a bit of a rise out of this i'd imagine.


----------



## Slipperz (31 May 2010)

I think it helped AUT to rise today.

Market is still pretty skitttish with plenty of sellers about so all in all AUT did well today imo.

Frac results for Rancho must be very close now.........


----------



## lemontree (31 May 2010)

Well the target statement was released after the market closed.. so if anything we'll see what immediate effects it'll have on AUT tomorrow. Today the sp could have been limited to punters closing their positions after picking up aut from 67 - 70c from last week. This of course is just my own opinion! But the target statement was definitely good news, if ADI has a best estimate of 61c with an upper limit of 1.10, AUT should of course be valued higher accordingly


----------



## condog (31 May 2010)

Definitely excellent news for AUT.

AWE will have to raise to 60+ cents to get over the line at least.

I reckon the will get there. 

If they do thats brilliant for AUT. 

ITs too cheap, but at 60c it gives mcap of $86million

I assume if it gets up which im thinking it might, but thats no given, there will be $15-20M looking for a new home, predominently in AUT. Some will go to EKA, some possibly to AZZ or elswhere but im assuming 75% of that will look for a home in AUT.

Even 1/2 that at say 37.5% of $15M, youve got at 80c average 7 Million shares on the purchase side. 

At my full estimate that will put 15+ Million shares on the buy side over time. Imagine that buy pressure with this tightly held stock.

I think a lot of ADI holders presume they can sell at 60c and jump into AUT or EKA. They forget evryone will want the same, so it will come at a cost, but not to us.

Also from a peer valuation, its well established by broker valuations and traders that prior to Turnbulls AUT is 2:1 value or slightly better then ADI. 

Right now and after a takeover ADI will have been at a slight premium to that Ratio. But at say 60c its reasonable to assume AUt is worth roughly $1.05+ imo . Then T1 is set to have IP's released this week, and T2 likely next week, im guessing. In that case AUt will have a premium on that ratio. 

If T1 is good at say 1500+ then by my guestimates, we could say AUT is reasoanbly better then $1.20 as fair value.

Ive had a short term target of $1.37 for some time and im still a bit stunned we are where we are, especiially given recent results and recent TO activity. But given the broader market its partially understandable imo. Im thinking if we get some confidence return even for a few weeks straight we might see this target hit in the not distant future. But thats my guess.

Right now it looks like either a suckers rally or turn around this week. Stay tuned, your guess is as good as mine with the ords.

This is all opinion. Do your own research, seek advice and make your own decisions that your accountable for. Do not act on the above.


----------



## stefan_invester (31 May 2010)

well it all sounds very good
thanks for all the feedback 

guess its all up to how the market, and the people are feeling tomorrow
but i have a pretty good feeling that something good will happen
lets hope soo


----------



## jancha (31 May 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> well it all sounds very good
> thanks for all the feedback
> 
> guess its all up to how the market, and the people are feeling tomorrow
> ...




That good feeling might be delayed with the US & UK holiday so the market should be quiet tomorrow.
Might have a slight rise in sp but unless there's news out about Turnbull or Rancho nothing significant will go up with any of ADI AUT or EKA imo.


----------



## stefan_invester (31 May 2010)

hmm true
sounds like it might be a good opportunity to buy in some more 

its funny how all the good things always happen when other markets don't trade, or like on a friday...


----------



## condog (1 June 2010)

> Assessment: Aurora represents a sound investment in energy production
> with ~20% interest across its permits, in 490 Eagle Ford wells. Upside value
> of over $2 per share.




From stock analysis news letter. Peter Strachan. Good to see more analysts placing values on what they regard as clearly undervalued.


----------



## condog (1 June 2010)

If youve just clicked to this post my previous one is better. 

But also note with AUT we are going forward while the rest of the market has been hammered. The additional buying power "if" this continues is astounding. 

DYOR and seek advice. But this is when fortunes are made. Its risky stuff, but can possibly pay dividends. Dont be stupid, just note it is imo when fortunes are made. seek advice and DYOR. I cant predict what will happen, so this is only provided as an example not as advice.

Ive made more in GFC1 and now in what i term GFC 1.5 then any other time in my life. This volatility is one mans worry and anothers opportunity. 

Selling out of crap and moving to good stocks is what i did a week and a half ago, as a result im up a lot.

Another strategy is to with two equal shares moving iin opposite directions for no apparent reason ( and by the way, you need to know why stock move) so its best to use similar one , or ones you really know). Trade the difference. Eg: ADI and AUt at 2:1, EKA and ADI at 2:1, AUt at 4:2. 

Eg if holding EKA at 20c and AUT slips substantially below 80c swap shares. Then if that ration becomes > 4:1 swap back or move to ADI. 

Note this does not take into account the ADI TO situation which is difficult to predict.

Ive been doing it for some time and with AZZ as well and managed to make very good use of the volatility. sorry but Not giving away my AZZ ratio as its far more complex and difficult.

sometimes it takes some tough decisions.  For example when i ditched a lot of stock, i took big capitalised loss. But since then ive pulled back the same capitalised gain, plus have a twice as big uncapitlised gain ont he same money instead of a greater loss. So my position is actually a huge plus better position, by taking that tuff decision.

Taking the loss was risky, as was pouring lots of money into one stock, but i took the risk and have been rewarded. It doesnt always work out that way. Sometimes ive been burnt.

Im not encouraging you to do the same, simply just providing it to help others.

All the best, theres more then 50 ways to skin a cat.


----------



## gerkin02 (1 June 2010)

I moved my aut stock into adi at 2.5 to 1 during the cap raising,

only time will tell if that was a good move.

Aut is an excellent stock in my opinion,

All the best,you definately have the right address here.


----------



## condog (2 June 2010)

gerkin02 said:


> I moved my aut stock into adi at 2.5 to 1 during the cap raising,
> 
> only time will tell if that was a good move.
> 
> ...




And whilst that has probably been not a super move, it was a derisking in a worrying time for some investors.

A far better move for most would have been to have done it last week while ADI was at 41c and AUT was roughly 67c. Then yesterday, today ot this week, next month when AUt gets enough over that ratio , eg 87c or so and ADI is 41 c swap back. Even to have swapped back yesterday youd have a 20%+ holding increase in ADI from a buy sell on spreads.

Each to thier own. I always keep big exposure to AUT, because imo its far better. But the parcel i move between them is doing better on a % basis, a lot better. Even after CGT and brokerage.

The TO premium has locked things up a bit. and the Turnbulls may make it more difficult for a little while. But when things stabilise, im sure ther will be opportunities on EKA / AUT spreads. Or other stock.

right now with AUt performanc , i think most are just happy to lock in exposure and see it green when the rest of thier portfolio is down 20+%. It gives you a possible 40%+ gain if you pick the bottom and trade, and a damn great gain if you just stay locked in.

For those that have been in AUt since Jan they are easily sitting on 140+% right now. Not too many stocks are doing that right now.

Even those that bought in last week are up 20%+, so so enjoy the ride folks, imo and its only an opinion, better times are just ahead for AUt.

Oil and gas is risky. But eaglefor somewhat de-risks that now. Things can still go wrong eg Kowalick.

DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## stefan_invester (2 June 2010)

its been a pretty slow day today, not much action
seems as though the market is waiting for something...

anyone know when any news is due out about or concerning AUT?
thanks


----------



## 5haretrader (2 June 2010)

Well today has shown that a bit of resistance has developed at the 80cent mark. Whether this is a psychological barrier or technical figure I am not sure, could someone shed some light on this?


----------



## Agentm (2 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Well today has shown that a bit of resistance has developed at the 80cent mark. Whether this is a psychological barrier or technical figure I am not sure, could someone shed some light on this?




not sure myself..

i took a view the very positive broker announcements claiming $2 prices had no impact, and it seems to have reached a plateau 

i have taken profit in aut and maybe moved early or maybe not.  hard to call but i think that capital is now resting in the adi share with the expectation the .60 valuation may one day deliver a higher bid by awe.  which means fully pocketing the cash should that happen.. so i have a guarantee of a total return..


anyone think the jvp partners could get real jittery if the awe directors do not announce any reply other than keep the current bid on to the end and simply allow the bid go?  will the likes of aut and eka just keep on rising and defy the market trends?  might be good to buy in later on if awe run this thing out..  

many futures on the horizon imho


will this global volatility keep on happening for weeks or months more and have zero impact on aut ?  

how far can these small caps move when you see the likes of awe with pretty good assets get smashed week in week out..

interesting days ahead.. will the jvp remain immune from the market jitters?

too fickle for me with aut not even coming close to running hard..

but who knows, if it lights up i can easily move back in a heart beat..


----------



## condog (2 June 2010)

Agent some sensible points

imo irrespective of global jitters at current scales AUt is adding value daily in substantial amounts. Cant see it slipping to far for too long for any reason imo.

Cap raising at some point in late 2010 or 2011 in your opinion, i dont see a problem. I really dont care if they grab $5 or $30 million as i know itw likely to be only a 5-8c discount and it will be quickly recouped.

To sell out worrying at this stage with the shares most of us have with good gains would give too much to the tax man, more in mst instances then the insignificant effect of a possible??? Cr.

Go for it if its gunna hasten development, bring it on i say. As at $2+ whos gunna care about a few cents dilution or a few cents loss from jitters.

short termers are worried about a CR. Well stuff em i say, focus on the massive unlocked value in this thing and develop it as fast as you can, before some predator makes a low ball offer, and distracts managment from its real job.

Just keep devleoping. whilever its economical and looks like staying economical drill drill drill and frac frac frac.


----------



## condog (3 June 2010)

In my opinion AUt holders need not be concerned at a CR

Our AMI activity is more limited by ADI, who are spending there cash defending thier company.

A $10M CR at 10c discount dilutes by 7% or 5c post CR

A more likely $5M dilutes by just 3.5% or 2.5c Post CR

A $5M debt structure doesnt dilute at all. The interest at 10% for 2 years Diminishes our return by less then 1% or 0.5c.

So CR is the absolute least of anyones concersn imo. IMO it would be significanlty advantageous at those rates to do so, becaues the benefits of accellerated cash flows and dvelopment would be quickly recovered

Any concerns about 2.5c dilution or 5c dilution on this stock are either very short sighted or traders. And Managment should never consider either in thier plans. Managment should always be focused on holders of 6-9 months or more.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (3 June 2010)

Nice to see AUT close above 80c/share.  I hope that 80c/share turns into a solid level of support in the near future.

I'll actually be in the States next week!  Perhaps I should duck out to Texas and have a look!


----------



## The Brown Bear (3 June 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Nice to see AUT close above 80c/share.  I hope that 80c/share turns into a solid level of support in the near future.
> 
> I'll actually be in the States next week!  Perhaps I should duck out to Texas and have a look!




It has had a good run, I would take profits and look for investments elsewhere. 

Instead of going to Texas, you should make an investment in vegas instead!!! :


----------



## condog (4 June 2010)

The Brown Bear said:


> It has had a good run, I would take profits and look for investments elsewhere.
> 
> Instead of going to Texas, you should make an investment in vegas instead!!! :




Brown bear, sorry to rain on your first post. But you cant give blatant unjustified advice. Feel free to express your opinion, but dont word it as advice. And if you want to be listned to state facts or produce some form of evidence for your reasoning.

I will counter that in my opinion. Its had a good run, becasue its got a 10 well programm currently being drilled in one of the best onshore shale plays in the world. Its got an 80% success rate with some very very economic results. In coming days and weeks 5 more wells will start producing. 
The last well had IP's over 2000 bocpd. The next 4 are expected to be good. Its expecting a reserves upgrade in July and Kowalick should be fixed in june / july.

its JVP ADI is subject to t takeover offer, which indicated AUT is at very attractive pricing as well.

So yes ther ehas been a very good run for very good reasons. imo the run has just begun. there will be periods of concolidation like the one we have been through and 80c is a point of resistance, this is our 2nd time at 80c, we may just blast through it this time, who knows.

Pattersons have an outdated valuation at 93c, Euroz at $1.02 and Stock analysis have $2upside on it. 

Perhaps that justifies my belief. and my contempt for statements as that posted above.


----------



## rock86 (4 June 2010)

The Brown Bear said:


> It has had a good run, I would take profits and look for investments elsewhere.
> 
> Instead of going to Texas, you should make an investment in vegas instead!!! :






condog said:


> Brown bear, sorry to rain on your first post. But you cant give blatant unjustified advice. Feel free to express your opinion, but dont word it as advice. And if you want to be listned to state facts or produce some form of evidence for your reasoning.




Condog, don't think he was giving advice. He's just expressing what he would do. If he said "I think you should take profits..." then that's a different story. However I don't think it's against the rules to express what you would do.

Cheers


----------



## condog (4 June 2010)

Great announcment out this morning showing Morgan with stable flows over 1300bocpd, easely great to.

Ranch is unloading and connected

Kowalick to be fixed in july as the first of a number of wells in the AMI to be completed in 2010

T2 ready to frac

Bring forward those valuations fokes, we have an accellerated drilling program.


----------



## Agentm (4 June 2010)

cant understand the aut announcement??

firstly on turnbull 3, from my database

API Number: 	42-255-31668  	
Location:	Karnes ,   Texas
Current Well Type: 	Active Permit  	
Status: 	drilling in progress 
Current Lease Name: 	TURNBULL 

Event:	Other  	
Event Date: 	05/29/2010 08:00  	
Event Depth :	 

Operator (ph):	HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY  	
Well Number:	3 

 	QUESTION ABOUT SETTING CASING. WODERING HOW DEEP HE CAN DRILL BELOW THE BASE OF THE FRESH WATER WITHOUT FILING A RULE 13. 

*5-28-2010* 07:15 *DRILLED TO 5850 AND RUNNING WIPER AND CLEANING OUT THE HOLE* CASING CREW ON LOCATION AND WAITING ANTICIPATING RUNNING CASING @ 1800 AND SETTING CEMENT @ 2030 OR 2100HR. 

the well was at 5850 on the 28th may.. last friday??


aut announcement says this..

*With the completion of the Turnbull #2H well operations the rig has now skidded to an adjacent well location on the same drilling pad and is presently preparing to spud the Turnbull #3H well.*
Turnbull #3H is the third of three new wells required to be drilled and stimulated under the Hilcorp farmin arrangements at the Longhorn AMI.

i was expecting at least new that the well was somewhere from 5850 feet and beyond 

that aside.

turnbull 1 was fraccing as far as i am told by eyewitnesses.. from over a week ago..  but with turnbull 1 i am going by eye witnesses so its not verified..  iwas told rancho frac was all quiet and on a sunday, but ready to flow.. and turnbull 1 was pretty much at full tilt..

 maybe what  was seen has been misinterpreted..   

but the turnbull 3 " is presently preparing to spud the Turnbull #3H well."  is very odd indeed 


trying to understand the AUT reasoning for not being anywhere close on turnbull 3 and  imho if the locals in texas are wrong on what a frac operation looks like then so be it, but i wonder if they are wrong on things..


----------



## Sdajii (4 June 2010)

Wow, check out the depth on AUT right now! We've hit a record high of 87c, almost a million shares traded, and only 236,000 on offer, with no real resistance point. The resistance at around 80c is gone... we could be in for a bit of a run as the end of the day, and week arrives in a few hours.


----------



## estseon (4 June 2010)

The AUT announcement was on 26th, which was 25th Texas time. To drill a mile in 3/4 days is going it some but the total drilling times that we've seen include casing and the drilling into the lateral. It looks as though it could tie in.


----------



## Ramblin Round (4 June 2010)

Who's drilling for them esteon ? Petrohawk has a bit to production and sales turnaround of 20-30 days. I don't know how the hell they do it so quickly, but that is what was reported. It _was _40-60 days  (which was impressive enough) and then they even dropped that timeframe down.


----------



## condog (5 June 2010)

Looking at those graphs for drill and frac times in the AUT presentation, they just keep getting quicker with every well. 

They are running like a "well oiled" machine. 

Agent I trust AUT very much, there has been no recent precedent to doubt them at all. Perhaps your source made a few mistakes.  

Looking forward very much to Ranch IP's next week and T1 flow announcment  id imagine would accompaniy it.

One has to be extatic with Morgan flow rates at 1300ish bocpd. $2.5M per mth towards well repayments, got to love that. a little over 2 motnhs and its paying other wells off. That compound payment will massively accellerate hilcorp repayments imho.

Hartleys came out with a look through valuation on AUT of $1 when comparing it to the T/O price for ADI.

87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo.  Combine that with Rancho Ip's, Turnbull flow and possibly two turnbulls flowing, we could se a big week or two for AUt.


----------



## Agentm (5 June 2010)

condog said:


> Looking at those graphs for drill and frac times in the AUT presentation, they just keep getting quicker with every well.
> 
> They are running like a "well oiled" machine.
> 
> ...




hey condog..  up early and asking for a chat with me i see..  

happy to reply

i sorta gotup early b4 a huge ride this cold morning.. but have to say i basically chocked on my wheetbix..

lets begin with a replay to this post of yours..

well completion times..

yes they have improved significantly, although some recent ones were a tad longer than i expected.   but by an large its evident hilcorp have it nailed..

re your trust of aut.. your trust makes for me being very disconcerted.. i check every announcement made by the jvp, and critically i discount them as being accurate and correct until it matches up with my data which is 100% accurate. and thus far there is grave concern by me solely for the accuracy of the last aut longhorn announcement..

when it gets down to it, if your comments on how accurate the sources are and whether what they see is what is going down.. that aspect i have already addressed in my post.. does someone who has seen frac after frac occur around their ranch really know what a frac looks like?  time will tell.


with regard to the well event on turnbull 3..  100% accurate and beyond doubt that the well was at 5850 feet last friday the 28th may.. given it takes some 19 days to drill a well for hilcorp.. imho the well would be drilling a lateral atm, and not waiting to spud as the announcement clearly states.

who do i trust? generally my research over anything. and i invest accordingly. so if things are not correct, and they clearly are not.. then thats the right signal to withdraw in a volatile market.. 

re the comments on morgan.. yes the well is brilliant, i am eager as anything to see how the 90 day flow rates translates. but thus far the well is as i said b4, one of the biggest producing wells in texas for a number of days..

yes hartleys have put that price target down in the absence of any dilution..

ok this is the where you really lost it for me. the weetbix choking section perhaps... i have to question this comment.. and where your data and graphs are coming from.. 

"87c is a nice overdue close, but im thinking next week will see many new highs imo. The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo. "

.87 was extraordinary.. i sure never expected it..

next week will see many new highs..   hmmmm  .. that  one was a beauty.. you and i are at opposite poles on this,  i think aut was on a plateau at about .70 - .80  the run yesterday was for me an indication of some pretty remarkable buying.. i was not able to understand what the catalyst was (and i am being sacrastic )  my view is that the current market is extremely volatile.. infact its beyond belief how volatile it is atm..

RE "The market overall on my graphs is turning more positve, "

OK condog.. have to ask what graphs your using and whether you can post one up for me?  

RE : "and should see some boost to the oil price and general risk tolerance imo"

can you post up some graphs on that and again, i really thing you need to check what data your looking and whether these comment you made are indeed accurate in any way.. and how you weigh the risk in these markets..

just as an indication, my data tells me the this, and keep in mind this was by and large done and dusted after your comment..

 June 4 (Bloomberg) -- *Stocks plunged, sending benchmark U.S. indexes to four-month lows,* commodities slid and Treasuries rallied as lower-than-forecast American job growth and a widening government debt crisis fueled concern the global economic recovery will slow. Hungary’s currency, equities and bonds plummeted.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 3.4 percent to 1,064.88 at 4 p.m. in New York, with only three stocks in the gauge rising. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 10,000 and both measures closed at the lowest levels since Feb. 8. *Oil fell 4.2 percent to near $71.51 a barrel*, while tin sank 9.5 percent to lead losses in metals. Ten-year Treasury yields decreased 17 basis points to 3.2 percent. The euro slid below $1.20 for the first time since March 2006 and the yen climbed against 16 major counterparts. The forint tumbled to an almost 15-month low against the dollar on concern Hungary may default.


TIA


----------



## condog (5 June 2010)

Thanks Agent for a detailed response and happy do differ. Good to seee your having a healthy breakfast.

My post wa prior to US employment figures coming out. But none the less. imo EU is still a big mess, but temporarily being dealt with. The US is / was recovering , although employment data following my post does not sit well.

China is my concern with a huge drop in electricity dmenad, which is a direct measure of industrial production. So far we have seen the corresponding drop in the AUD but not in commodity prices yet.

The world has not yet found on an appropriate scale a replacement for light sweet crude and as a result of the BP spill 2015 and 2018 crude futers have doubled in price from $7 to $15+ per gallon. Whilst higher then targeted production form OPEC has protected the short term oil prices from rising, the legislative risks and responses from the Obama govt indicate a risk to offshore drilling. Also world all demand is exceeding production from traditional sources. As a result the windo of time we are heading into looks very bullish on oil. The costs of recovering from tar sands are significnatly above $75bo andaprt form short term lows from short term factors we will see in my opion oil at very good prices going forward. In the immediate term we could see it slip to $60 but this will be short lived and temporary in my opinion as all oil futers have risen dramatically since the BP spill. 

Its not htat BP spill is big in terms of influence on price, its the legislative risk to off shore rigs in the gulf of mexico that is huge , and in the view of oil traders will cause significantly increased safety and emergency response costs.  Time will tell.

That combination in my opinion combined with a softer aUD bodes well for us earning USD in Aust.

My graph deliberately left small, for undisclosed reason, but you can clearly see early, but certainly no certain signs of a change. The averages are converging and if the trend continues it will bescome a strong buy signal. Its not a buy signal yet, but as you see its improving as the averages are separting.




Please dont choke on your morning tea agent.
Feel free to disagree, its a forum  for discussion after all and discussion by definition has two opposing views. After all i thought your move out of AUT was bizarre, ive been proven right "so far". Which i guess proves your not right all the time.

On the issue of your sources, they have been fantasticlly reliable and i am not questioning thier integrity, but i also have no reason to question AUT. Imo whilst some announcments have proved slightly delayed, etc they have been encouragingly credible since Dec 09.

Certainly ive got no concerns over AUT, but given your currently not holding , i do question your sudden turn from "AUT " as a no brainer to what ever your stance is right now? Im a little confused and stunned by your recent changes in sentiment.


----------



## condog (6 June 2010)

No sign of Agent perhaps he did choke on his morning tea in response to the above post after all. RIP Agent.


----------



## Slipperz (6 June 2010)

I will have a close eye on AUT come Monday open.

I am weighted about 40% AUT at this stage but might take the inevitable price drop as a good opportunity to put a few more back in the bag!

Assuming some kind person wants to sell some to me at a reasonable discount!


Just had a check on the price of our commodity....natural gas now $4.80 !  Will help pay off those well costs 20% faster!

http://www.oil-price.net/


----------



## Slipperz (6 June 2010)

Just found this, a very interesting article on improvements in production and decline rates over the past year.

Looks like the fraccing is getting better with every well contributing to the underlying economic performance of each well.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-gas-Producers-Focus-Shifting-to-Wet-Gas.html


----------



## stefan_invester (6 June 2010)

hey

what do you guys think will happen on monday
after this really good rally for AUT last week??
any thoughts???
thanksss


----------



## condog (6 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> hey
> 
> what do you guys think will happen on monday
> after this really good rally for AUT last week??
> ...




Im guessing it will go up, down or be the same. just kidding. 
Fundamentally theres a lot to help the price rise within the stock and its parameters. Who knows what the externala market will throw at us. 24 hours is a long time these days . 

Focus on a longer temr then monday on this stock and at present imo things look very good.


----------



## jancha (6 June 2010)

condog said:


> No sign of Agent perhaps he did choke on his morning tea in response to the above post after all. RIP Agent.




Hope not condog we wouldn't want the ADI tread to cease.
Is it a case of credibility with management or is it justification for selling too soon?
However it will be interesting to see how long AUT can continue to hold up under present market conditions.
I guess it all comes down to holders belief in AUTs management & news to come.
Slipperz you wont be getting my shares in a hurry.


----------



## Agentm (6 June 2010)

condog

i think you misunderstand my reasoning to exit aut. 

volatility is of prime concern to me.. it drives all sorts of things, commodity  prices are volatile, and oil is very much in that category.. but of more concern to me is the reasoning behind all the turnbull news not being disclosed to the markets atm.. and the aut lack of funds for the future.

yes aut will be and is a no brainer, in a lot of ways, and i absolutely will be revisiting the share and have enjoyed the massive profits i have acquired with cashing in..  but equally there are reasons for me to keep cautious. .and i respect the absolute need for capital and the difficulties of getting that in volatile markets,  until aut has a clear path forward, the desire to be in it is not there by me at all..


i feel you absolutely wrong on the volatility of the markets globally and locally, in every respect..

the opec interventions into the oil markets a long time ago to drive up the prices has had its impact, and its speculated they wont intervene again and turns the taps down yet again unless $60 prices are evident

this a few weeks back on market volatility having the impacts it does on the oil prices

Kuwait: market sentiment cause oil price volatility


Kuwaiti minister says price volatility in international oil market not driven by fundamentals.


KUWAIT CITY - Market sentiment and not fundamentals are driving price volatility in the international oil market, Kuwait's oil minister said on Wednesday.

"Market sentiment, not fundamentals," Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah al-Sabah told reporters when asked what is behind recent oil price volatility.

"Look at what happened to the euro and the strength of the dollar, of course."

Oil prices have fluctuated sharply, dropping to well below 70 dollars a barrel on Tuesday, a few weeks after hitting almost 90 dollars. The eurozone debt crisis and its impact on the euro and the dollar has been blamed for the swings.

Oil prices rebounded in Asian trade Wednesday, taking their lead from strong performances in regional stock markets.

New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in July, gained 78 cents to 69.53 dollars a barrel.

Brent North Sea crude for July delivery advanced 31 cents to 69.86 dollars.

The Kuwaiti minister said OPEC will continue watching movements in the oil market, but ruled out the need for an emergency meeting now.

"The bell is not ringing yet," he said.

Sheikh Ahmad, whose country is OPEC's fifth-largest producer, rejected considering a price of 65 dollars a barrel as a "floor" for OPEC to act.

"No. This will (only) draw our attention," he said.



i  also am at odds on you regards the asx market and global markets volatility

despite your very unreadable graph, i am not convinced of anything

my research tells me a complete different story on volatility

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2010/pi20100520_742189.htm


also this from the asx leads me to a differing view to yours condog








i feel the jvp all have great futures should they be sufficiently funded to deal with the future ahead

despite our strong disagreement on the volatility of oil and the global markets, i will remain out of aut until i see some evidence aut has the ability to be in the right shape for the future.. once its dilutions are done, it market updates are more accurate.. volatility dies down globally and it has the cash in hand and ready to go, i think a revisit to aut will be the order of the day for me..


----------



## condog (6 June 2010)

Agent glad to see your still alive, i was getting worried. I respect you enough to happily agree to disagree. 

my graph has private data on it, but you can clearly see the convergence beginning.

I see 2010 oil prices not necesarily responding to the BP leak, however further out i see big legislative restrictions and safety costs limiting gulf production by between 250,000 and 500,000 bopd from the gulf.

New investments rely on $60+ to get off the ground so, i see pressure above $60. The target range for OPEC is $70-80. So theres plenty of factors interlocking to support AUT production economics.

The play itself we know is good, know need to say anymore on that.

In terms of global certainty. Indeed plenty of major problems, and markets are and will remain volatilve for some time. But  US looks like its bottomed, EU has big issues, but will drag on and, both will still need oil in good quantities and gas.

China electricity has plumeted which is a concern, but is rebounding now, so hopefully they have addressed the manufacturing and inventory issues causing this. The AUD is so closely linked to Chinese electricity production graphs its unbeleivable.

From a drilling and capital problem, as ive outlined in other posts $5-$20M CR has basically no real effect on AUT sp , around 2.5 -6 or 7 cents max, post CR.

For holders the CGT implications of trading out are more then that. Its a no brainer imo to stay in and ride this baby as they continually ad value. The bigger we get the less CR's hurt. Bring it on and drill drill drill. 

Sadly i think you might be watching us run away and away, while you wit for a TO upping on ADI which should come, but may not. If its pulled , ADI and AUT will consolidate imo.

I was certain it was going 50c plus back at 26c when many said i was wrong. At 87c im even more certain we are going well over the $1 mark sooner rather then later. 

With the ADI i see it getting up on July 1 or if raised. Dont be surprised if many jump ship on july 1. If they do it will casue a mad panic into AUT nad to a lesser extent EKA. 

Look at our continual limited sellers. Its all lining up nicely. This is being casued by a consistent bigger buy volume. We closed at an all time high on good volume, which is another very good technical.  These longhorn wells "if" they are as goos as im thinking will catch many including yourself with your pants down. 

Lets just wait see, its not long now.


----------



## estseon (6 June 2010)

The balance of probabilities must be that AWE will raise the bid for ADI and the balance of probabilities must be that the most significant short-term action will be in the ADI share price. ADI and EKA shares have the greater link to S/L development and the JVPs are cashed up for that continued development. Longhorn & Ipanema may follow earlier than last planned but there has been no mention of that yet. Predictions look nigh on impossible because of the AWE joker card. I know how I'd like to be positioned later in the year but the jury's still out on the next few weeks, imo.


----------



## condog (6 June 2010)

estseon said:


> The balance of probabilities must be that AWE will raise the bid for ADI and the balance of probabilities must be that the most significant short-term action will be in the ADI share price. ADI and EKA shares have the greater link to S/L development and the JVPs are cashed up for that continued development. Longhorn & Ipanema may follow earlier than last planned but there has been no mention of that yet. Predictions look nigh on impossible because of the AWE joker card. I know how I'd like to be positioned later in the year but the jury's still out on the next few weeks, imo.




No one has to be a genius to know how youd like to be positioned, but for the sake of the new comers, he means hed rather be in AUT.


----------



## Sharejon (7 June 2010)

AUT is sitting at $0.81 as I speak, and has been as low as $0.795.

oh how I wish I'd refrained from buying some other shares and kept some 'share' money aside to buy some more AUT at this price!

Ah well it's alot easier said than done.

(disclaimer I hold)


----------



## stefan_invester (7 June 2010)

wow
its only been 1:35 minutes in trading, 
and the volume is already at 1.2million.
just makes you wonder what will be happening later
this afternoon.......


----------



## AngusSmart (7 June 2010)

There has been loads of volume today! finally we're seeing action on this share
Regarding the attachment from comsec are these just Buy trades? or are they Sell aswell?


----------



## lemontree (7 June 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> There has been loads of volume today! finally we're seeing action on this share
> Regarding the attachment from comsec are these just Buy trades? or are they Sell aswell?




Well if you think about it, it is someones buy and someone elses sell. So to answer your question, each trade is both a buy and sell - subconsciously you're thinking the same thing by describing the transaction as a trade


----------



## jancha (7 June 2010)

lemontree said:


> Well if you think about it, it is someones buy and someone elses sell. So to answer your question, each trade is both a buy and sell - subconsciously you're thinking the same thing by describing the transaction as a trade




Depends how big the buy or sell is eg. one buyer could take out ten sellers.
Good to see that AUT has support under the markets down turn. 
In comparison to EKA & ADI the volume ( 1.5 mil ) of AUTs is considerably higher & holding around 82c.
Luck would have it as i sold out of my blue chip shares two months ago only to buy an apartment & increase in my holding of ADI & AUT to which have made ground over the period whereas the blue chip shares i  had have dropped 10% - 15%.
The story unfolding with the likes of AUT & ADI must have strong merit being able to hold steady under these volatile conditions of uncertainty in the market.


----------



## Sharejon (8 June 2010)

Rancho Flow Rates have been released on the ASX.

Rancho Grande #1H

Gas Production Rate: 3.19 (mmscf/d)
Condensate Production Rate: 1,170 (bbls/d)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate: 18 (mmscfe/d)

These are the figures of the maximum production rate (over 24 hours), flowing on a reduced choke setting.

I'll be honest here, I'm not entirely aware of what ALL this means, but it doesn't prevent me from posting the facts .

They seem like pretty good figures from what i know.


----------



## condog (8 June 2010)

Sharejon said:


> Rancho Flow Rates have been released on the ASX.
> 
> Rancho Grande #1H
> 
> ...




It means a damn good result and one of the best in the Eagleford. On a reduced choke this is and outstanding result. Lets wait and see how this testing pans out in terms of decline rates.

But a very very positive announcment.


----------



## jancha (8 June 2010)

condog said:


> It means a damn good result and one of the best in the Eagleford. On a reduced choke this is and outstanding result. Lets wait and see how this testing pans out in terms of decline rates.
> 
> But a very very positive announcment.




Hey condog how far away do you predict an up date on the Turnbull wells?
Anything negative under present circumstances could see Aut drop back to 70c?


----------



## condog (8 June 2010)

Janch im expectin multiple announcments in the next two weeks. 

I think we will see the revised drilling program

I think we will have a Turnbull flowing to sales update possibly by friday with IP's next week. 

Dito for the other turnbull the folloing weeks. 

Then T3 and IP i assume. Early July = Kowalick, then im guessing the new program will kick in with extra wells thru to late 2010.

Lots of reasons for upside imo.

Inevitably int he current market we will have little pull backs, but the general trend imo will be up consistently. A CR will rattle a few idiots in late 2010 or early 2011 if it happens, but ignore the noise.


----------



## philly (9 June 2010)

jancha said:


> Hey condog how far away do you predict an up date on the Turnbull wells?
> Anything negative under present circumstances could see Aut drop back to 70c?




There was an ASX announcement this morning regarding the Turnbull wells. All seems to be going to plan. There was also a presentation to be shown in Melbourne and Sydney this week highlighting AUT's strong position. IMO the share price will stabilise around the 85 cent mark untill the production rates for the turnbull wells are available next week and then get a kick-a-long.
I am a holder


----------



## AngusSmart (9 June 2010)

Thats a good presentation, alot of info all in the one spot!

And an increase in acreage to 2000 in longhorn, cant argue with that!


----------



## rockhound308 (9 June 2010)

It is a good presentation. 

Just the thing to show a sophisticated investor!

This may have been covered before but dose any one get exactly what the graphic on page 16 means, particular the Ipanema column. Is light blue representing wells to be drilled this year next year or what?


----------



## AngusSmart (9 June 2010)

rockhound308 said:


> It is a good presentation.
> 
> Just the thing to show a sophisticated investor!
> 
> This may have been covered before but dose any one get exactly what the graphic on page 16 means, particular the Ipanema column. Is light blue representing wells to be drilled this year next year or what?




Hey you mean page 15?? i'll attach. it looks to be that way. they hope to have 10 wells on ipanema this year if i read it correctly. it is a tad confusing with the muddled up quarters at the bottom


----------



## 5haretrader (9 June 2010)

Not really sure why the SP of AUT has dropped off from its intraday high of 88cents. Things were looking quite good for a while there. Also I have noticed EKA has dropped back about 13% from its high of 23cents a few days back. On another share forum there seems to be a bit of a suggestion that someone is trying to offload their holding regardless of the share price. Doesn't make sense to me but could someone perhaps shed some light on this?


----------



## Agentm (9 June 2010)

tend to think aut needs some massive capital behind it to carry all this out.

those extra acreages would have had a huge drain on the cash also.

imho if your doing a presentation to brokers then your not just chatting about the company, but imho more about what the company needs.. and thats capital

my recent exit from aut was done on the basis that aut needs to secure further funding, and i think right now is the right time to do that. 

when the whole funding issue is done and dusted and the share settles to its rightful place i will be considering a revisit.

yet to see cap raising done above the daily sp on an small cap oiler.  so i expect some dilution and some retrace in the near term myself.

could be totally wrong on all this, but i am not putting a single dollar into this one until its clear to me they have the capital and the capacity and the ability to see through the next 6 - 12 months.

great presentation and agree with you rockhound on whom a presentation like that would be suited to


----------



## Sdajii (9 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Not really sure why the SP of AUT has dropped off from its intraday high of 88cents. Things were looking quite good for a while there. Also I have noticed EKA has dropped back about 13% from its high of 23cents a few days back. On another share forum there seems to be a bit of a suggestion that someone is trying to offload their holding regardless of the share price. Doesn't make sense to me but could someone perhaps shed some light on this?




I've been puzzled by it too. Profit taking is all I can think of. At first I thought maybe people were jumping out of EKA and into AUT because they were impressed by AUT's announcement, including increase of acreage, but with AUT falling as well I'm a bit stumped. I had a little money put together though, so took the opportunity to stock up on EKA at 20c. If it turns out the EKA drop is due to someone selling out at any price, giddy up, and thank you to them!


----------



## condog (9 June 2010)

Agent i totally 110% disagree.

CR is imho not imminent at all, I hope im wrong.

Still got $6m in cash. 

Only spent less then $2.5M in last 6 months. 

Got less then $2M of expenses till cash flowing in. 

Our share of 2010 forward drilling program is less then $4M and its not all due at once. Cash flow will cover if not prevent a CR altogether in 2010. So likely CR is late 2010 to mid 2011 if at all. It still may be a debt facility, rights issue, SPP or Performance oppies that fund any shortfall.

Anyhting else right now is offensive hyped upr pure speculation. 

Certainly i wish they would CR $20M right now and drill drill drill, but from regular contact with the company, it appears thats not happening. 

So settle pettle and dont speculate, do the sums. 

There is no immediate or short term need for cash.

Im not saying it wont happen, but im saying its all pure 100% speculation.

Also any CR is likely to only make a 2-5c hit, this thing is stupidly underpriced as is, when thes Turnbulls flow lookout, anyone carrying on about a 2-5c dilution will get cought short imo and bad luck.

Jon Stewart is one switched on cookie imo, ive neen in his ear for months about the timing and style of CR. Hes professional and wont reveal anything, but im impressed with his attitude, that he wont be told how or when by any brokers with interests other then AUT holders.


----------



## Agentm (9 June 2010)

condog said:


> Agent i totally 110% disagree.
> 
> CR is imho not imminent at all, I hope im wrong.
> 
> ...




lol

"offensive hyped up pure speculation"

condog

your post on the aut credit raising is complete rubbish.. your kidding yourself here condog. AUT would need about $20 - $30 mill right now, and just for an idea of how much would be needed in terms of the 23000 AMI acres.. about $200 mill for their share of the 2300 nett acreages to drill the wells there.. 

aut have over 10,000 nett acres.. the capital requirements to run the entire program are astronomical..

investing wisely and being very aware of the needs of AUT into the future is exactly why i sold out of the share. once AUT has the capital to run with the forward well program i may return but i would have to be pretty satisfied the company was in good shape and the ability to deal with most possibilities coming up in the following 6 -12 months. 

its not "offensive hyped up pure speculation".. 

as for "settle pettle.." ???? what are you on about condog?  are you saying i am not allowed my own opinion, and not state that i am waiting for aut to cap raise before i consider buying the share again?  listen condog.. your not going to intimidate me in any way here.. if i choose to have my opinion on aut i certainly can have it, your personal attack on me for having that opinion leaves you looking pretty weak imho..

condog i have done the sums, and i am sure aut have too,  i think its you that has yet to understand and calculate the capital that is needed to roll out a massive drilling program into the acreages.

good luck with your calculations and try to calm down condog, i have invested my capital the way i wish to, into and out of aut..  and your calculations on aut and their immediate and long term capital spend is so far out its laughable..

when you say:

 "Certainly i wish they would CR $20M right now and drill drill drill, *but from regular contact with the company, it appears thats not happening*."  

are you saying that aut is keeping you well informed as to when it is happening? imho you best back that type of statement up with facts...

pretty bizarre statement condog..  be careful what you write when you disclose your conversations with aut..


----------



## condog (9 June 2010)

No with respect for your knowledge of the play which is extremely good, your wrong on this , very wrong imo.

How on earth do you possibly justify such a statement of $20-$30m right now. Give timelines and cash amounts as i have. What your saying defies all logic.

Granted i do not know exact lease dates and costs, although i have previously questioned mgmnt on this and they ahve stated they are extremely manageable within current cash and cash flow projections.

The aditional drilling is not due to start till this lot is finisehd, which are free carried, so there is actual no real need for cash. $6M in bank, no debt.

I am not privvey to any information other then you are, but given my large stake i keep regular contact and constantly ask any questions i feel i need to know the answer to. 

They are extremely proffessional and like most good companies dont breach disclousre rules, but do answer questions of investors, they feel are within the rules.

Admin till cash flow starts is less then $2M. Cash flow starts not long adfter new drilling program commences, at best they will have 3 wells drilled by the time cash flow starts. 3 wells at say 10-20% is at most $2M form current cash at bank, still leaves over $2m when cash flow starts rolling in. That leaves another 3 wells for 2010 at cost of $1.8 - $2.5M to be funded from $2m cash plus cash flow from interests averaging 20% in 10 wells. Cant see 2010 presenting much of a cash problem.

2011 - yes undoubtably if the pace is fast will present very tight cash flow, but it really depends on the pace. Put it this way if AUT needs cash so will ADI and EKA on a bigger faster scale, yet i havent seen you posting this in the ADI thread??

Agent usualluy your posts are backed up by fabulous detail and facts / photos, but look at your 2.52pm post. No detail, pure speculation. Its not the normal you. Since you got out of AUt you havent stopped trying to bomb the price imo, but yet a few weeks ago at 77c you where saying it was a no brainer. Surely you acknowledge AUt is a fabulously better company with Rancho on board, the turnbulls about to be unleashed and the new leases, plus new program. I am regretably and reluctently questioning your current motives.


----------



## condog (9 June 2010)

Agent on the 6th june you said 

"yes aut will be and is a no brainer, in a lot of ways, and i absolutely will be revisiting the share and have enjoyed the massive profits i have acquired with cashing in.. "

At that time AUT was around 78c-81c roughly. 

Its now 82.5c with todays news and still $6M in bank. 

?? Im not sure why its suddenly in your opinion no a no brainer any longer??

Is it becasue your out?? or is there a real reason, as imo cash and cash flow are not an issue any time now.

Id love it if youd give facts and numbers specific to AUT to demonstrate your view point.


----------



## Slipperz (9 June 2010)

I'm happy holding at this stage.

The news is all good, the drill program is on track with hillcorp to continue to derisk the acreages.

Funding options for 2010  are many and varied imho.

Every major in the world is drilling like crazy in the eagleford so what's to stop AUT and the jv partners from another farmout to hold the acreages while we continue with a secondary drill campaign from well revenue?

We seem to be in a pretty sweet spot for well results shouldn't be too hard to find someone who wants a piece our our action?


----------



## condog (9 June 2010)

Slipperz said:


> I'm happy holding at this stage.
> 
> The news is all good, the drill program is on track with hillcorp to continue to derisk the acreages.
> 
> ...




Couldnt agree more slipperz, thats it in a nutshell, nothing has chnaged for the worse except one mans opinion??


----------



## Slipperz (9 June 2010)

Well we all do what we feel is in our best interests. 

No shortage of opinions on any market forum.

I certainly enjoy AgentM's insight, opinions and on the ground insides.

I'll leave you two to continue the battle 


:jerry :jerry:jerry:jerry


----------



## jancha (9 June 2010)

condog said:


> Agent on the 6th june you said
> 
> "yes aut will be and is a no brainer, in a lot of ways, and i absolutely will be revisiting the share and have enjoyed the massive profits i have acquired with cashing in.. "
> 
> ...




Good point condog.
Hopefully Agentm can respond with a reasonable explaination with facts & figures otherwise he's just playing down AUT?


----------



## condog (10 June 2010)

I have modelled the new program and can easily adjust it to requiremnts. Its fully taxed at 40% $68net per boc and $4.25 gas, with $6M well cost.

We currently have $6M in the bank. Admin costs till cash flow starts is less then $2M, with lease costs lets allow $2.2M, leaves $3.8M

Once cash flow positive based on current projected declines and new wells operating at stable flows of just 500 and 2000, we will earn roughly $1.96M per month based on the 10 wells.

Kowalick will cost $600,000 or less, as will 3 SL wells.
Ipenema wells will cost approx $1.8M

Assuming current wells finish drilling and fraccing at lat July, thats 2 months + early. Cash flow we can presume will also be early, possibly up to two months, given results are becoming better then expected.

They will drill faster then one per month and will most likely start before we become cash flow positive. However having said that putting various scenarios its hard to find any logical drilling program where our cash flow becomes stressed to the point of a nececary CR. At Earliest id say October. 

It defies any logic with the current drilling program to raise capital now, as capital in the bank is dead ROE and it attracts predators.

My new fully taxed valuation for endo of 2010 based on 500 and 2000 with $6M costs, $68net and $4.25net at 40% tax & royalties, plus 10% of the value of net 2011 wells = $1.78 unrisked.  Or $1.60 with one dead well.

DYOR seek expert advice, do not rely on this or any other post for decisions.


----------



## Agentm (10 June 2010)

condog, perhaps take a valium and calm down.. your inability to deal with my decision to exit aut until they are funded is totally off the dial..



my decision to exit a share is totally my business. if you did the same i would not berate you, nor even question you, it would be totally your decision..

its almost as though your saying i cant make a decision on how i can trade based on market volatility and my views on the prudent capital requirements needed on a company i have invested in..  as i have stated b4 over and over. and today is the 10th june condog.. aut is certainly a no brainer.. it has huge upside (and equally downside risk), and  it potentially has huge upside if circumstances permit, but i will perhaps buy aut in the future when things are as they need to be.. when the company has the ability to go further. lol even old john campbell managed to see that aut needs extensive capital months ago.. 

in light of the fact no obvious takeover of aut occurring,  i envisage aut is planning to keep an interest in both its acreages and  further wells, and that will require extensive capital.

i enjoyed the aut ride, and  when re assessed the company in terms of its cash and its ability to fund any further acreages and any immediate well program as well as a potential forward well program, and along with market volatility, i can see no need to stay in aut unless aut has the capital in hand to go with the future wells for say 6 or more months.

your naive view on the cash requirements is your deal condog, and your maths and figures are as before, laughable.. 

adi has $9 mill and only 2300 nett acres.. i believe aut has 4 times that in acreages

adi has enough capital for about 9 months max ahead..  this from the awe compelling response..

"_Adelphi has significant funding needs going forward: the Technical Expert notes that funding for over 200 wells will be required over time. Adelphi’s share is estimated by the Independent Expert at US$21 million for approximately 30 wells over the next 2-3 years, compared to Adelphi only having sufficient funds for the next 9 months;
“As the Sugarloaf asset is developed, Adelphi is likely to need to raise additional capital to supplement its existing cash balances. This would require additional investment by existing shareholders or dilution of their existing interests.” (Adelphi’s IER – page 31)_"

condog , your desire to believe aut can survive long term on its capital is so far from reality.. please believe me when i say i will never believe your fantasy ever..


how i time my runs, how long i stay in or out of a share are decisions i make condog.. is totally my business, and i dont really appreciate your current disrespect for another investors opinion and your current ranting and raving over my decision  to withdraw from aut until i  feel like returning to it..


your aggressive behaviour towards me on my investment decisions, and your very condescending opinions on me regarding my investment decisions condog is remarkable.. and again, my view on your laughable maths on the capital requirements that aut will need in the near and long term is fantasy.. pure 100% fantasy.. and you assertions i am wrong and indeed very wrong on this is equally disturbing.. 

i would say i am pretty correct in my views condog, and that many would agree the maths you throw around are total fantasy.. 

gladly you do  see the aut management is capable. imho when i see that those running aut are capable of going forward i will reconsider my position..

until then condog, despite your protests, i will remain in the wings waiting for a time when i feel comfortable investing further funds into these acreages..


post any cap raising..

good luck to you and all holders, as i say, i know plenty of aut holders and i want every one of them to make a killing on this share..  they deserve it..


----------



## nunthewiser (10 June 2010)

FWIW.

On a TECHNICAL basis from the chart i have in front of ME ........ AUT looking like one primo SHORT.

Provides a nice low % loss on stopout point if analysis is incorrect .

on MY technical viewpoint it should get a bit cheaper fairly soon.

last price 83.


I could always be wrong tho.


----------



## estseon (10 June 2010)

The joker in the pack is awe's laughable offer for adi.

Price dislocations between the partners have been closed by investors switching between them. ADI holders are looking at too much potential upside to switch at this stage.

There is also the likely CR hanging over the share. There is little sense in Hilcorp completing the farmout wells and then pulling out for 6 months. Each new drilling (advance commitment) will require at least US$1.75m from AUT. They've always said that they will raise additional capital. What has changed is the increased likelihood that there will be additional drilling this year. That's not negative - if that is right, it is because the acreage is just too attractive to leave fallow. AUT's AUD6m is almost certainly committed to S/L - look at the specific CRs of EME & ADI.


----------



## pistol72 (10 June 2010)

im in agreeance with nun,momentum for this stock is slowing and possibly reversing in the S/T.triple divergance in the rsi suggests this.a corection back to the underlying trendline is a fair chance.P


----------



## 5haretrader (10 June 2010)

For those with the technical charting know-how, where do you feel we have a good stable support to rest on while this 'correction' as you call it takes place?


----------



## nioka (10 June 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> FWIW.
> 
> On a TECHNICAL basis from the chart i have in front of ME ........ AUT looking like one primo SHORT.
> 
> ...




How can you possibibly equate a technical chart  based on past events with the current prospects for AUT is beyond me. The past echoes early failures and doubts about the potential. The future and the present should be based on the great results presently being obtained that show very little doubt about the future. A chart showing the drilling results would be a better chart to use to predict the SP in the future.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 June 2010)

nioka said:


> How can you possibibly equate a technical chart  based on past events with the current prospects for AUT is beyond me. The past echoes early failures and doubts about the potential. The future and the present should be based on the great results presently being obtained that show very little doubt about the future. A chart showing the drilling results would be a better chart to use to predict the SP in the future.




Thats great.


However i am merely putting my opinion out there in regards to current price action and where i think it will go from here based on MY interpretation of patterns formed and likely pivot points.

like i said i could always be wrong

 I use charts to guage likely turning points in ALL stocks/vehicles i trade and quite often what happens in the past ( as in recent moves) will provide guidance on where the action MAY go from here.


Um as far as "current prospects " go .. a cap raising looks highly likely shortly based on my basic number crunching look i had earlier.

Anyhoo each to there own BUT recent selloff vols from the recent high to current lower vols and current patterns popping up lead me to my ORIGINAL post.

If a drilling ann chart will help make ya cash well good luck to ya, I,ll stick to what works for me.


----------



## Sharejon (10 June 2010)

I'm not saying the SP isn't being affected by people selling off due to their suspicions of cap raising (because I do believe this is the case for alot of the selling IMO), but I agree with Nioka, it's extremely harsh judging AUT purely from a charting perspective, given the recent incredible performance it's achieved.

It's only natural that it's slowed down a bit. (mind you an improved offer from AWE would definitely accelerate it greatly IMO). The SP has jumped nearly 3x from the start of the year, it'd be naive to expect such growth to be continued from here on!

I'm with others in saying this, but I do not mind the idea of a cap raising at all, but i hope they don't do what ADI did and only offer it to particular shareholders.

I will say I'm looking forward for Turnbull to start providing results!


----------



## condog (10 June 2010)

nioka said:


> How can you possibibly equate a technical chart  based on past events with the current prospects for AUT is beyond me. The past echoes early failures and doubts about the potential. The future and the present should be based on the great results presently being obtained that show very little doubt about the future. A chart showing the drilling results would be a better chart to use to predict the SP in the future.




Nioka I agree

Right now this is not a technically driven stock

This is a news driven stock , fueled by each and every new well and frac.

The current trend observed on the chart is in relation to a percieved incorrect imo immediate threat, by some to a possible CR. 

It will blow over as further Turnbull results make this garbage about a small future CR seem insignificant. Late 2010 is the time mentioned by mgnt in the presentation, and its price will have little bearing on current prices.

The technicals may be correct on a slight pull back depending on IP timings of T1, T 2, T 3, but we have seen small consolidations all the way up, that late buyers / traders have participated in. The fact is its still a very tightly held stock and plenty, plenty, plenty more upside imo.

End of 2010 ive got it conservatively valued up around 1.67+ depending what prices and flows you use, using very conservative numbers, so i cant see us stuck at 80 odd cents for too long. 

Off too queenstown NZ for a well overdue snow trip this morning for a few weeks, so hold the fort and enjoy the ride all.


----------



## Slipperz (11 June 2010)

Hasn't been mentioned for a while so for new holders that might not be aware we also own 12% of elixir petroleum which is going pretty well this past month or so


http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/securitiesinformation.asp


----------



## stefan_invester (14 June 2010)

hey guys
pretty slow day today, just
waiting for tomorrow to come.. 

was just reading around, and i noticed someone say this
(on one of the ADI forums) : 

"Well know U.S. takeover firm KKR are in talks with Hillcourp and may acquire their Eagleford Shale assets for approx. U.S $400 million.... now that will spice up the action even more"

Just wondering if anyone knows what this could mean for AUT?
thanks, hope everyones having a good day off 
cheers. Stefan


----------



## 5haretrader (14 June 2010)

It means someone is going to takeover AUT for $10 per share tomorrow...

No well seriously, it is a good sign because there is more and more attention coming towards that neck of the woods. We probably won't see too much interest (from the institutions like KKR) in AUT in particular because we have all the fundamentals in place to go it alone for a long time. Really is no need for buyouts of resources or takeovers, in my eyes at least.

In the short term however, can we pull this little slump around in the SP and kick on again into the 90cent region. I hope so.


----------



## Dink (15 June 2010)

AUT in a trading halt. ADI and EKA not in one. Let the speculation begin..............................................


----------



## Agentm (15 June 2010)

aut is in a trading halt

the halt relates to a capital raising

i think you financial assessment of aut was pretty unbelievable condog.. 

i will be extremely interested in the amounts that aut is about to raise and of course how much the sophisticated investors get in for..

good luck to all holders..


----------



## Sdajii (15 June 2010)

Agentm said:


> aut is in a trading halt
> 
> the halt relates to a capital raising




As soon as I saw the words "trading halt" on ASX I assumed the same thing, and still do, but do you know this or is it just speculation? It's a safe bet, but I'm mostly just wondering if you have a way of confirming it.

If it goes to existing holders I won't be all that upset. If it goes largely to sophisticated investors I'll be disgruntled.

Assuming it's capital raising, we'll soon test everyone's predictions about how much a capital raising will knock the price down and how the price will behave afterwards. It should stop a bit of bickering


----------



## Bigukraine (15 June 2010)

Agentm said:


> aut is in a trading halt
> 
> the halt relates to a capital raising
> 
> ...




let the agent and condog show begin get your pop corn , front row seats and enjoy the entertaining exchanges


----------



## 5haretrader (15 June 2010)

If you read the announcement, its related to capital raising. IMO, this is fantastic news . Pity if you were just in for a short term buck, but those in for the long hall can mark this as a great opportunity to top up on your holding at a good price


----------



## Sdajii (15 June 2010)

5haretrader said:


> If you read the announcement, its related to capital raising. IMO, this is fantastic news . Pity if you were just in for a short term buck, but those in for the long hall can mark this as a great opportunity to top up on your holding at a good price




Ah, yes, I just read the fine print. I suppose I should have done that before opening my mouth.

My entry was mid 60s, I was confident that it was a good buy at that price, and it's possible the capital raising won't push us below 70c anyway. The recent sell offs were quite likely the result of people like Agentm seeing a clear need for capital raising, and likely that's what prevented us from topping 90c recently. Looks like a brilliant time to be topping up or jumping in for the medium to long term.

Happy to be holding


----------



## AngusSmart (15 June 2010)

Heres an article regarding the recent news on kkr acquiring 40% of hilcorp released today the 14th (us date)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65D0A120100614

"KKR will invest up to $400 million to develop the property, and will own 40 percent of Hilcorp Resources LLC, a company formed to hold the Eagle Ford acreage. Hilcorp will own the remaining 60 percent."

and another article

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1419804520100614


----------



## nunthewiser (15 June 2010)

Lol ... funny stuff guys.

I must say this is one of the more creative threads out there 

Good call Nun.


oops just did a quick search on some other threads and just realized nothin changes except those holding the bag .......


----------



## stefan_invester (15 June 2010)

hey
anyone have any ideas as to how much the offer price will be for these new shares? 

cheers
  stefan


----------



## Sdajii (15 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> hey
> anyone have any ideas as to how much the offer price will be for these new shares?
> 
> cheers
> stefan




Your speculation is as good as mine 

I've been pondering the same thing. They've been in the high 80s, but not above 70c or so for more than about a month. 65-70c? I certainly hope we get to buy some rather than being diluted by 'sophisticated' rug pullers, er friends of the board, er investors.

Speculation is just for fun though, we'll know very soon.


----------



## jancha (15 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> hey
> anyone have any ideas as to how much the offer price will be for these new shares?
> 
> cheers
> stefan




How about a 10%-15% discount on average price of around 85c over the last fortnight period....maybe 74-75c?
Will the public get a bite of the cherry tho?


----------



## stefan_invester (15 June 2010)

yeah, 
cant wait to find out
i was also thinking somewhere around the 0.75c range..

just also wondering what this mean for the current SP?
does anyone know?

cheers


----------



## Sdajii (15 June 2010)

75c seems a little optimistic to me, given that it's so recent that they were trading for less than that. On the last day of May, about two weeks ago, they traded for 72c. Earlier in May, that's last month, they were trading in the 50s. In April, that's just the month before last, they were trading in the 40s. I think they're worth more than a dollar, but I can't see a large amount being raised at 75c unless they go to sophisticated investors, which would suck.


----------



## AngusSmart (15 June 2010)

every share i've owned thats done c/r in the past has been at about half of what they were last trading at. i think somewhere around 40-50c would be more realistic.

hopefully we get a chunk of the pie!


----------



## jancha (15 June 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> every share i've owned thats done c/r in the past has been at about half of what they were last trading at. i think somewhere around 40-50c would be more realistic.
> 
> hopefully we get a chunk of the pie!




Hell!!
What shares have you owned that have halved in CR?
All the same i hope your right tho... i'd love to pick more at 40c!!!


----------



## Agentm (15 June 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> every share i've owned thats done c/r in the past has been at about half of what they were last trading at. i think somewhere around 40-50c would be more realistic.
> 
> hopefully we get a chunk of the pie!




i think the mid .70's   or about .75 would be a place to start..

my view is that the capital needed is about $20 - $30 mill

so the dilution will be about 40,000,000 shares if thats the case

220 mill shares on issue atm


----------



## estseon (15 June 2010)

Don't forget that AWE might force ADI holders to look for a new avenue for investment in this project. Not all the money will necessarily be reinvested but not all will need to be to ensure a demand for the new issue. I doubt that EKA could absorb all of it without becoming over-priced. AWE has to show its hand by 2 July.


----------



## jancha (15 June 2010)

Agentm said:


> i think the mid .70's   or about .75 would be a place to start..
> 
> my view is that the capital needed is about $20 - $30 mill
> 
> ...




Agentm. As before with ADI and their CR....Do you think AUT will go with the sophisticated investors?


----------



## nioka (15 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> yeah,
> cant wait to find out
> i was also thinking somewhere around the 0.75c range..
> 
> ...




I'll take all I'm offered regardless of the price. I would expect the price to be around 75c. A few cents here or there at this stage matters little. What matterers is the results of the current drilling program. All I am hoping for is that the board do the right thing and offer the shareholders a bite of the cherry. Regardless of the issue price I doubt that it would have much long term effect on the SP. AUT shares should still be worth more than 2 ADI or 4 EKA. If they vary from that I'll continue to trade swaps with the three.


----------



## skyQuake (15 June 2010)

Heard its 75c with a SPP too; not a terribly large raising. Management must be trying to cash in on the meteoric rise


----------



## Slipperz (15 June 2010)

I am surprised at the timing of the cap raising.

By my calculations I thought it likely in Q4 2010 on the results of the drilling program and a stronger sp resulting in less dilution.

Whatever the reasons why, what for and for how much all will be revealed soon enough I guess

Currently I am out of AUT as I went in deep on NMS on Friday morning and sold off AUT which has turned out to be rather fortunate timing on my part.

Just watching the AUT price struggle late last week in a very positive market convinced me to take profit and move aside for a bit.

Probably after NMS has had it's little run I will reweight back into AUT  post capraising


----------



## Agentm (16 June 2010)

jancha said:


> Agentm. As before with ADI and their CR....Do you think AUT will go with the sophisticated investors?




could well be a mix as skyquake is suggesting  

but imho sophisticated would be primary..




skyQuake said:


> Heard its 75c with a SPP too; not a terribly large raising. Management must be trying to cash in on the meteoric rise




if you look at the awe underpinning the cap raising price, to me it was illogical not to cap raise when hilcorp can go full field at any moment

if you noticed the recent turnbull wells were drilled in groups.. very much like the eog and murphy approach.. in that style of drilling large funds for many wells are needed and then similar for multiple fracs a month or two later. 

4 mill would get you no where fast.. imho aut needs a larger cash account.

my view is that aut will need $20 - $30 mill  and in todays climate the more the better..


----------



## stefan_invester (16 June 2010)

well
tomorrow is the 17th, so AUT should start trading again...
and there seems to be a lack of interest in buyers.
should be a very interesting day tomorrow, 
and looking foreward to the announcement for the CP price


----------



## mir (16 June 2010)

stefan_invester
I'm actually expecting a very strong opening, i believe there was massive interest from the institutions .


----------



## stefan_invester (16 June 2010)

well  i hope you are right,
because imo it dosent look very good at the moment, only 19 buyers
for 200,000 shares, and 35 sellers for 750,000 shares,and indicative price is 
at 0.80 so yeah

but hope you are right


----------



## mir (16 June 2010)

for me .80 after a cap raising  that will probably be priced in the mid seventies is a pass, but expecting better.


----------



## prgudula (17 June 2010)

17/06/2010  	 asterix   	Suspension from Official Quotation 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100617/pdf/31qw62k4p7nr4v.pdf


----------



## AngusSmart (17 June 2010)

jancha said:


> Hell!!
> What shares have you owned that have halved in CR?
> All the same i hope your right tho... i'd love to pick more at 40c!!!




Nar it wasnt quiet half, but close enough and they wernt released to the average investor either 

hopefully we can get a bit of the action here.


----------



## mir (17 June 2010)

a bit of light reading to ease the boredom, worth a read they are very bullish on AUT & i like the bit about $2/sh.
this report is a few weeks old so an updated should be due shortly.

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.86) Buy


Price Target: $1.18



Reason For Update: 30-day Production Data Morgan-1H & Easely-1H 



What We Know: 

The Sugarloaf AMI JV (AUT 10%) has released 30-day production results from their 2 most recent wells; Easely-1H and Morgan-1H.

Morgan-1H averaged 19.1mmscfe/day (vs. IP 31mmscfe/day), producing 38.5kkbls of condensate and 109mmscf of gas.

Easely-1H averaged 10.1mmscfe/day (vs. IP 17.9mmscfe/day), producing 12.2kkbls of condensate and 126mmscf of gas.

IP data from Rancho Grande-1H is expected shortly.

Turnbull-1H the first of the Longhorn AMI (AUT 25%) and we expect IP results within the next 3 weeks.

Turnbull-2H and 3H are cased and await fracture stimulation.

What We Think:

The 30-day results are excellent and continue to underscore the quality of the Sugarkane Field. 

Furthermore, the Morgan well in particular, demonstrates both the proof of concept and optimization of well design are both paying dividends in terms of increased condensate yield and lower initial rates of decline.

The JV is of the view that condensate yield and (potentially) pressure regime increase further north in the Sugarloaf AMI (25%) and into the Longhorn AMI (AUT 25%): Morgan is the most northern to date in the Sugarloaf AMI.

Importantly, the well completion design (in terms of no. of frac stages, horizontal length and percentage of proppant) is being refined with each well and to date, the production data has shown benefit accordingly.

Using spot prices, the Morgan well produced gross revenues in the order of US$3m, whilst Easely grossed US$1.5m.

Noting well costs of between US$6.3-8m, payback forecasts of circa 6months appears achievable given the results to date.

This has tremendously positive implications in terms of time to free-cash-flow and thus generation of sustaining capital for field development.

Should the news from the Longhorn wells serve to further highlight the favourable characteristics of the trend, AUTs higher equity position in Longhorn improves leverage to the Sugarkane Field and thus attractiveness of the AUT investment proposition.

A maiden reserve and revised resource statement is expected in July we believe that this will serve to at the very least validate our current price target.

Our $1.18/sh price target reflects the valuation metrics provided for by the recent bid (and target statement) for ADI.

However, we believe that similar estimations of value may be applied to AUTs participating interests in the Ipanema and Longhorn AMIs with on-going drilling success.

This would serve to roughly double our valuation to circa $2/sh.

Further upside can be seen with continued and heightening corporate activity in the play most recently witnessed with Shells 250K acre foray into the liquids-prone part of the Eagle Ford play.

Investment Case:

These latest production results continue to firm the credentials of AUTs acreage within the Eagle Ford play. A distinct trend of improving yield, higher pressure and lower rates of decline is emerging as the drilling focus shifts further north towards the Longhorn AMI. Proof-of-concept can be further enhanced via forthcoming results from Rancho Grande-1H. These will be closely followed by IPs from the suite of Turnbull wells: positive results from the Longhorn AMI are a clear catalyst for the share price. In addition, with the revised resource and (potentially) maiden reserve in the Sep Q, we believe that AUT has all the elements required for a re-rating. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a revised price target of $1.18/sh.


----------



## Agentm (17 June 2010)

aut imho wont be chasing the completely staggeringly low amounts that AZZ just raised..

lol... $12 mill   :horse:         azz must be up for sale 


back on topic..  there is little chance aut would be looking at anything under $30 - $40  mill

interest will be as to whether the share will kick back to the buy-in price

if it is as skyquake says, then the money from the sophisticated investors would pass in quick, and the average holder will gauge how to play it.. 

can the share run with the knowledge the SPP holders will sell into anything to pay for the cheap shares 

you would bet against a rapid rise in the share from the issue price initially..

but will that be how the story unfolds??


----------



## stefan_invester (17 June 2010)

do you think this valuation of AUT will remain the same
even though there will be a cap raising?

been a very slow day todayy


----------



## mir (17 June 2010)

stefan_invester
imo they will raise the $1.18 target in the short term ,when this report was done they were aware  of the need for a cap raising this report was done by the company that AUT presented to last week & i believe they were very impressed.plus after the  cap raising there are results for turnbull 1,2,3 kowalik,ipanema , a reserves upgrade & plenty of money to  drill .


----------



## stefan_invester (17 June 2010)

sounds wonderfull, and looks the same wayy 
very much looking foreward to the next couple of weeks
and for AUT to continue trading once again


----------



## Kremmen (18 June 2010)

Agentm said:


> i think the mid .70's   or about .75 would be a place to start..
> my view is that the capital needed is about $20 - $30 mill
> so the dilution will be about 40,000,000 shares if thats the case




That's pretty close to what's happened.
Nice to see the details include shareholders (as of 11 June) being able to buy up to $15k worth at 75c/share.


----------



## mir (18 June 2010)

stefan_invester
here is the answer to your question
euroz latest report


Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.75) Buy


·         Price Target: $1.18

·         Reason For Update: Capital Raising

·         What we know:

       AUT’s $35m placement has closed heavily over-subscribed.

       Significant demand, lead to an up-scaled two tranche placement (up from $24.75m), issuing 46.67m ordinary shares at $0.75/sh.

       The company will look to raise up to a further $6m via issue of 8m shares at $0.75/sh through SPP.

       Funds will be applied to the recently revised forward drilling programme - designed to secure existing leaseholds under production - as well further incremental lease acquisition and general working capital.

       The increased funding provides additional capacity in the event that continued drilling success further accelerates the programme.

       The company has advised that an additional 6 wells will be drilled in CY’10, within the Sugarloaf AMI (AUT – 10%), plus potential for a second well at Ipanema AMI (AUT – 30%).  Drilling will commence in July with the re-drill and completion of Kowalik-1 (Sugarloaf).

       Similarly, the programme for CY11 has increased from 15 to 25 wells and will focus ostensibly upon the Longhorn AMI (AUT – 25%) with 17 wells planned, whilst 4 are to be drilled at Ipanema and Sugarloaf.  

       The operator, Hilcorp, have agreed to a JV with KKR & Co to develop Hilcorp’s Eagleford Shale assets.  KKR will tip in $400m for a 40% stake; this highlights the increasing focus being provided to the Eagle Ford.

For the full report please see the attached document.


----------



## philly (18 June 2010)

mir said:


> The operator, Hilcorp, have agreed to a JV with KKR & Co to develop Hilcorp’s Eagleford Shale assets.  KKR will tip in $400m for a 40% stake; this highlights the increasing focus being provided to the Eagle Ford.




mir I agree that the JV between HILCORP & KKR & CO should give the SP a kick along as more investors realise the potential of the Eagleford.

The US news report [14/6/10]  I saw had this interesting disclosure:
In addition to the development program, the Company [HILCORP] will actively look for opportunities to increase its acreage position in the Eagle Ford through leasing, joint ventures and acquisitions.

What does this mean for the JVP?  Could the new JV make a bid for the Aussie JVP's? More interesting times ahead. I hold AUT & ADI


----------



## Slipperz (19 June 2010)

40 million plus 12 or so in the bank plus revenues from completed wells maybe as early as September ?

Looks like AUT is going to pursue an agressive drilling campaign.

Could lead to a rerating in coming months.

I will looking for any sign of weakness to reenter


----------



## Agentm (19 June 2010)

Slipperz said:


> 40 million plus 12 or so in the bank plus revenues from completed wells maybe as early as September ?
> 
> Looks like AUT is going to pursue an agressive drilling campaign.
> 
> ...




40 mill plus 12 in the bank???

what are you talking about???

some serious miscalculation going on here

aut is not pursuing  any aggressive drilling campaign.. if one was about to happen then i think the evidence on the ground would be pretty obvious. i would be hearing some interesting stories from the local and i am not hearing anything like that right now..

imho it is preparing for some short term commitments.. 

i cant see any evidence of hilcorp being in any position to undertake any aggressive drilling campaign.. i see evidence of hilcorp filling in the missing acreages, and drilling to hold leases atm thats all..

that will keep this jvp very busy atm


----------



## Slipperz (19 June 2010)

Agentm said:


> 40 mill plus 12 in the bank???
> 
> what are you talking about???
> 
> ...




Actually my bad it was 6.5 million in the bank last quarter and 41 million from the cr. Plus revenues when Hillcorp have finally recouped their drilling expenses.

At 5 million per well including monies from the jv partners that's quite a bit of drilling no?

Oh and buying more acreages and general operating expenses as per the nr re the cr.

Better get that ear closer to the ground Agentm...the rigs are on their way!


----------



## stefan_invester (20 June 2010)

hey
just got a quick question, 
the trading halt for AUT lasted about 7 normal days..
on the last day of trading before the halt volumes were very low
only 381,999 and once the halt was removed on friday, 
there was a huge jump in volume that day, and the sp rallied
from a low of 0.77, with a volume of 2,576,217.

so i am just wondering if anyone knows if this is a sign of things to come?
or whatever else anyone thinks this could mean.

thanks,
   Stefan


----------



## Slipperz (20 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> hey
> just got a quick question,
> the trading halt for AUT lasted about 7 normal days..
> on the last day of trading before the halt volumes were very low
> ...




Depth on the sell side is pretty light atm, could augur well for a strong start to the week.

Or maybe someone wants out on Monday morning?

We'll have to wait and see.....


----------



## Agentm (20 June 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Actually my bad it was 6.5 million in the bank last quarter and 41 million from the cr. Plus revenues when Hillcorp have finally recouped their drilling expenses.
> 
> At 5 million per well including monies from the jv partners that's quite a bit of drilling no?
> 
> ...




lol

when they arrive i will let you know..

atm no sign of them

when you look at aut needing to drill maybe 3 -4 wells in sequence, and then 4 completions all at once!!  and if many rigs arrive then the numbers needed to fund this is staggering.. aut has enough to cope with just one rig and leasing requirements..  




stefan_invester said:


> hey
> just got a quick question,
> the trading halt for AUT lasted about 7 normal days..
> on the last day of trading before the halt volumes were very low
> ...




stefan, the share is as you say, pretty oversold..  plenty of aut holders more than happy to exit, about 1.5% in one day

but will the dilution of 54 mill shares impact on the sp in the near term? 

180 mill shares on the register..

imho its a heavy cap raising dilution, and you have to weigh it into the equation.. whatever market rationale that is valuing the share at 10% above the cap raising valuation post a huge dilution of 54 mill shares (30% dilution) on top of your 180 mill shares on issue is not known to me atm..  but thats the markets for you hey!!

sitting this one out and waiting to see were this levels out to.. 

so far you would have to say its pretty spectacular for the cap raising shareholders and those buying more shares in SSP as they can sell into this and fund their new shares easily.. pretty amazing imho.. and good luck to all holders..


----------



## mir (20 June 2010)

i posted this on HC, i heard there was over $100m demand for the cap raising. i  was a sub underwriter for the SPP & was scaled back heaps, I'm pretty sure if all share holders take up the offer ,you will only get $3000 to $4000 worth of shares . the turnbull 1 result  due early next week there should be a lot of support .


----------



## estseon (21 June 2010)

"...over $100m demand for the cap raising..."

Are these investors (persons holding for a period) or professional underwriters?

Just wondered how loose the shares might be.

The revised offer from AWE for ADI (if and when) should help. It will release funds for reinvestment by those wishing to see this project further developed. I suspect that the bid is currently blocking things up. We could see $20m+ chasing shares once the blockage is removed....depending on how much will need to be set aside for tax. Can't guess the split between EKA & AUT - depends on relative prices, I expect.


----------



## mir (21 June 2010)

estseon
"Are these investors (persons holding for a period) or professional underwriters?"
placement to institutional & sophisticated investors as per announcement.
i believe the presentations were very well received so i hope they are long term holders.


----------



## stefan_invester (22 June 2010)

not alot of price action happening on AUT over the past 2 days,
im wondering if anyone has any information?

or if anyone knows when any result announcements are
due out, which may help boost the sp a bit

cheerss


----------



## AngusSmart (22 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> not alot of price action happening on AUT over the past 2 days,
> im wondering if anyone has any information?
> 
> or if anyone knows when any result announcements are
> ...




a 40% dilution and a cr @ 75c dew out. i wouldnt expect much at all for a few weeks. however Turnbull 1H results should be out soon.


----------



## Sharejon (22 June 2010)

Although I'm not expecting massive gains from a positive turnbull announcement (due to the dilution and cap raising), if good news came out regarding the turnbull wells I'd be expecting to see some sort of positive movement.


----------



## AngusSmart (24 June 2010)

Sharejon said:


> Although I'm not expecting massive gains from a positive turnbull announcement (due to the dilution and cap raising), if good news came out regarding the turnbull wells I'd be expecting to see some sort of positive movement.





Seems to have kept us above 80c.. and news is out now on turnbull 1 and 2..


LONGHORN OPERATIONS UPDATE
By e-Lodgement
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Longhorn Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Turnbull #1H
The Turnbull #1 well has been successfully fracture stimulated and has been unloading and produced to sales for 10 days. The location of the Turnbull #1 well is the closest well to date within the Sugarkane field to the known oil leg of the Eagle Ford Shale, which is being developed by other participants in the trend. As a result this well is expected to have a higher condensate ratio than that observed from the earlier Sugarkane wells. This higher condensate ratio and continued attempts to optimise the stimulation design has led to different unloading characteristics compared to previous wells, with more of the fracture fluids being recovered during the initial flow. As a result, the hydrocarbon production rates on the Turnbull #1 well have been steadily increasing as the well cleans up and the choke setting has been increased in small steps over a longer period than the other wells. We believe that it might be some time before a maximum initial rate can be determined with the well currently producing over 1,300 barrels of water (fracture fluids) per day.	The maximum 24 hour rate observed to date on a restricted choke is:-
Gas Production Rate	Condensate Production Rate
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate
(mmscfe/d)* 12.63
(bbls/d) Turnbull #1H	1.53	893
(mmscf/d)
* The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.
In addition, the following comments should be considered:-
•	The well is being produced on a restricted choke as part of an ongoing program to optimize the recovery and economics of the wells.
•	This is an initial production rate that has been observed during clean up and as such is not yet indicative of a short or long term production profile.
•	The well still has considerable fluid to recover from the fracture stimulation and is presently producing over 1,300 bwpd.
•	The well is currently producing through the production casing. A production tubing string will be installed in due course.
Turnbull #2H
The fracture stimulation of the Turnbull #2 well has been carried out and the isolating plugs, set after the completion, have now been drilled out. This well will now be unloaded and produced to sales, an update will be provided once a stabilized production rate has been achieved.
Turnbull #3H
The Turnbull #3H well is presently drilling ahead on the horizontal section. There have been some operational difficulties encountered over the last week on this well due to the quantities of gas being produced from what is thought to be a natural fracture along the horizontal section of the wellbore, however these difficulties are being resolved, with drilling due to recommence shortly at a depth of approximately 13,000 ft.
Aurora is the only ASX participant in the Longhorn AMI and holds a 50% working interest reducing to 25% following the completion of the full Longhorn farmin workscope. Turnbull #3H is the third of three new wells required to be drilled and stimulated under the Hilcorp farmin arrangements at the Longhorn AMI.
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED


----------



## Sharejon (24 June 2010)

Yes I'm happy to see the SP advance despite the cap raising. It indicates the strength of AUT imo.

(Getting above that minimum post limit!)


----------



## condog (25 June 2010)

Im extremely happy with the timing and price of the CR

Agent 218M shares and CR of 41M + 8M roughly 50M shares = 22.3% dilution

yet CR adds ability to double well count within 12 months. Cant see a problem myself.

At 25 wells pre CR AUT would have had income of roughly $72M at end of 2011.

They will now have rev of approx $145M at end of 2011. Not bad for a company with current mcap post CR of approx 212M. 

In terms of capital cost to drill, its not a huge issue, They now have not only more then enough capital to meet requirements, but also to acquire acerage. You must remmeber they are only paying thier working % of costs and they will have positive cash flow contributing to well costs in around 3 months time. So all drilling costs are somewhat supllemented from cash flow from that point forward.

All looking good. With 25% risk i have it at $2 with 25 wells and $4 with 50 wells at end of 2011. 


The fact the CR is so heavily oversubscribed speaks volumes, given its small discount. The SPP will also be majorly over subscribed imo. 

Once people have had thier fill and the overnight profit takers clear the decks we will see real value bgin to be established. 

DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## AngusSmart (25 June 2010)

condog said:


> Im extremely happy with the timing and price of the CR
> 
> Agent 218M shares and CR of 41M + 8M roughly 50M shares = 22.3% dilution
> 
> ...




So it wasnt a 40% dilution? sounds good, changes how much i was thinking of topping up on then.. On a more important topic How was Newzealand? whered you go boarding? been alot of action on Adi and aut since you were gone!


----------



## Assasin (25 June 2010)

Could someone please explain to a long time shareholder dummie, just how the CR works. Would like to take up as much of the offer as I can but unsure how?
Enjoy your commentry.


----------



## estseon (26 June 2010)

Assasin

The information can be read at first hand on the AUT website.

The placement of 30million shares has been executed and the new number of shares in issue is 253.58 million.

The "2nd tranche" (13.67million), in which holders at the record date (which was revised) can buy up to AUD 15,000 worth (20k at 75 cents), is subject to shareholders' approval - meeting to pass the resolution 26 July. The 2nd tranche is fully underwritten.

As I do not live in Australia or New Zealand, I won't have the opportunity to participate and so have taken little interest in the mechanics.

If you do qualify, you should receive notice of the EGM. If the resolution is passed, you should then receive documentation to enable to tender for your entitlement. But that won't be before the end of July so don't harass the postman before. You'll be given time to complete and despatch the tender.

This should broadly coincide with Kowalik (1st or 2nd week of August?). We should have seen all 3 Turnbulls and a new reserves appraisal. I doubt that the underwriters will pick up any shares.


----------



## stefan_invester (26 June 2010)

hey, just another quick question..

as hurricane season approaches the united states, and
AUT drilling in texas, will the hurricane season have any effects 
on the drilling that is taking place and in turn in the share price?

thankss
    cheers.


----------



## estseon (27 June 2010)

September 2008

"The authorities said the hurricane could still prove to be the most punishing storm to hit the area since Hurricane Alicia 25 years ago.

Almost the entire metropolitan Houston area lost power and the authorities said that more than three million people were trying to manage in the dark. Utility officials said it could be weeks before power was restored across the region.

The magnitude of the power loss and the flooding raised the possibility that some major oil refineries could take more than a week to reopen. As a result, gasoline prices jumped an average of 6 cents a gallon, or 3.78 liters, around the United States. The Associated Press reported that a gallon of gas rose above $5 a gallon at a few stations in Tennessee and Alabama."

Unusual event around there. Danger of flooding though structural damage unlikely from hurricanes (rigs are pretty robust structures). Probably too dangerous for crews. Flooding will hamper transportation of supplies.

If you're worried about natural hazards, government bonds might be safer.


----------



## Agentm (29 June 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> hey, just another quick question..
> 
> as hurricane season approaches the united states, and
> AUT drilling in texas, will the hurricane season have any effects
> ...




when a hurricane comes onshore, the rig operators stop drilling a few days before and generally lay the rigs down and send the crews home.   they are rated to a certain wind strength.

i have seen no reports of any hurricane predictions for the south texas region so i would not be at all concerned


----------



## condog (30 June 2010)

Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).

Tack that onto higher oil price futures and the legislative risks and cost associated with the BP fallout and energy looks like being rediculously expensive in the not too distant future (medium term).

Right now overall market sentiment and a short term buy sell imbalance from the CR will dictate price, no the hurricanes, imo in the medium term economic recovery and legislative change adding to costs of offshore drilling will help sustain higher energy prices, in the long term, india and china will imo dictate prices.

So all looking good when the market comes back in a happier mood and the CR is in the past.


----------



## springhill (30 June 2010)

condog said:


> Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).
> 
> Tack that onto higher oil price futures and the legislative risks and cost associated with the BP fallout and energy looks like being rediculously expensive in the not too distant future (medium term).
> 
> ...




Condog, this completely off topic, but curiousity has gotten the better of me, can i ask the meaning of the nick? I know it's :topic, but i have a thirst for  asbtract information (and pornography) .


----------



## condog (30 June 2010)

springhill, nothing major, just a nic that stuck from real life.

Also on the positive is the KKR deal which highlights the upside KKR see in the eagleford and cleaner energy overall.

Additionally the AWE / ADI proceedings have a few long term holders looking to pull the pin. July 1 could see a big day for ADI if punters decided to cash out . All bodes well as that money looks for a new home in AUt and EKA. Thats a lot of buying pressure.

On the energy front we have BP legislation likely to cause long term price rises and possibly supply disruption (small scale) , hurricane season, china and india demand for energy continueing to rise, energy future prices up, and possibly major CO2 reduction targets 12-36 months off, imo leading to a considerable premium on future condensate and gas prices.

KKR are no fools, they look to make big profits in short spaces of time. Watch this space carefully. KKR may even become a serious predator in the future imo.


----------



## estseon (1 July 2010)

Hurricane Alex - "About 25 percent of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and 9 percent of natural-gas output was shut down, the U.S. government reported".

Looks like it will miss our part of Texas.


----------



## condog (1 July 2010)

Looks set to cross land in Mexico about 350miles south of Karnes City o all should be safe for us at this stage.


----------



## Agentm (3 July 2010)

new permit for the ipanema section by hilcorp

may unit 1H

will have a 5000 foot lateral if completed correctly and no natural fractures in the well to interfere with the completion

that will finish off the farm in for the ami and extended acreages for AUT


----------



## Agentm (3 July 2010)

condog said:


> Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).
> 
> Tack that onto higher oil price futures and the legislative risks and cost associated with the BP fallout and energy looks like being rediculously expensive in the not too distant future (medium term).
> 
> ...




i have no idea what you talking about here condog?  can you present some facts on this that back up what you saying

the bp macondo prospect being drilled by the deepwater horizon rig, was an ultra deep drilling prospect. its 5000 feet down in the mississippi trench..

i cant see any evidence of what your talking about, there are not many drilling at that depth, very few have the technology to do so.. a lot about the bp well is not being published, as bp has a stranglehold on the information coming out, but i have a suspicion they drilled into something more than just a oil prospect.. 





condog said:


> springhill, nothing major, just a nic that stuck from real life.
> 
> Also on the positive is the KKR deal which highlights the upside KKR see in the eagleford and cleaner energy overall.
> 
> ...




kkr?  can you confirm where your getting all that info on its "big profits in short spaces of time" aspect please?

i wonder how many adi holders will move on the aut share immediately. there is nothing stopping me from buying a huge swag of aut, but i see many very concerning indicators on the oil prices that will see me sit this one out for a while yet.. maybe a long long while..

re energy future prices up??  can you confirm that is correct please..  imho if you research oil futures which i think are the relevant ones to look at, you will find its been down for 5 days straight!!


your very exuberant on aut condog, and it has the potential, but make no mistake condog, you need to be a little more accurate on the statements you make. when people make statements like you have it sounds very exciting, so i had to research it and make sure it was correct.. i cant confirm most of the things your saying when i check it and examine it, can you confirm that what your stating is accurate for me please?

TIA


----------



## Agentm (3 July 2010)

dates are important to consider here

 Jul 1, 2010



HOUSTON, July 1 --* Enterprise Products Partners LP announced June 29 an additional expansion of its natural gas and natural gas liquids pipeline system in South Texas and Mont Belvieu, Tex. serving the Eagle Ford shale play. Enterprise plans to install 350 miles of pipeline, build a natural gas processing facility, and add an NGL fractionator* at its Mont Belvieu complex near the Houston Ship Channel, *with most of the work completed by early 2012*.

Included in planned construction is an expansion of Enterprise's East-West rich-gas main line *that will involve adding three pipeline segments totaling 168 miles.* *Phase 1 calls for 26 miles of 24-in. OD pipeline extending the mainline to the far western reaches of the Eagle Ford shale*. *The remaining 142 miles, to be built in two segments, will consist of 30-in. and 36-in. OD pipelines serving the eastern portion of the Eagle Ford shale.* Upon completion, Enterprise’s Eagle Ford shale-rich gas mainline system and associated laterals will include roughly 300 miles of pipeline with gathering and transportation capacity of more than 600 MMcfd.

*The east end of the Eagle Ford mainline will terminate at a natural gas complex that Enterprise plans to build. The complex will feature multiple processing trains designed for deep ethane recovery and production of mixed NGLs in excess of 60,000 b/d. Following completion of these projects, expected in early 2012*, Enterprise's Texas assets will be able to gather, transport, and process almost 2.5 bcfd of gas and produce more than 150,000 b/d of NGL.

Takeaway capacity for residue gas from the new processing facility will be provided by a combination of existing Enterprise systems and construction of a 64-mile, 30-in. OD residue gas line from the cryogenic facility to its Wilson gas storage facility in Wharton County, Tex. Wilson offers access to major interstate pipelines, including Trunkline, Tennessee Gas, Transco, NGPL, Gulf South, and Texas Eastern. An expansion project to increase capacity at the storage facility by 5 bcf is under way.

Transportation of mixed NGLs from the new processing facility to Mont Belvieu will be accomplished by a 127-mile, 12-in. OD pipeline. The NGL line will have an initial capacity of more than 60,000 b/d readily expandable to more than 120,000 b/d. Enterprise expects completion in early 2012.

To accommodate increased volumes from the Eagle Ford shale and other producing regions, Enterprise is moving forward with plans to construct a fifth 75,000 b/d NGL fractionator at its Mont Belvieu complex. Construction of the fourth fractionation train is on schedule for completion by yearend, at which time the Mont Belvieu complex will have capacity in excess of 300,000 b/d. Enterprise expects to bring the fifth unit online in early 2012.

Enterprise also announced completion of the initial 34-mile segment of the East-West rich-gas Eagle Ford mainline and the final leg of the 62-mile White Kitchen lateral allowing gas transport to its seven South Texas gas processing facilities with a total capacity of 1.5 bcfd. Included among these is its Shoup gas processing and fractionation facility in Nueces County, Tex., modifications increasing its NGL capacity to 77,000 b/d to which were completed June 27.

*Expansion of the 140-mile crude line Enterprise operates between Karnes County, Tex., and Austin County, Tex., is scheduled to be completed in fourth-quarter 2011*. The line is supported by a long-term transportation agreement and Enterprise is in talks with other producers regarding transportation through the pipeline.

Activity in the Eagle Ford shale continues to increase with roughly 75 rigs currently working in the play having drilled nearly 180 wells, according to Enterprise, which estimates current production from the play at 250 MMcfd of gas and 15,000 b/d of oil and condensate.


----------



## tonudiki (3 July 2010)

I believe that AUT shares are still relatively cheap at the moment.

  For the "Target's statement" on ADI, a fair value of 61 cents per share  was promulgated by PWC, and this was after excessive discounting at 15%,  largely due to the Sugarloaf project not yet being fully developed. ADI have 169 million shares in issue and AUT (after the recent placing) will have ~275million.

 The market caps/ net Eagleford acreage, compare as follows:-

 ADI   169m shares @ 61 cents = A$103.1m   market cap   //   Net Acreage = 2350 acres

 AUT  275m shares @ 79cents =  A$217.25m   market cap   //  Net Acreage = 10,500 acres

 Comparing the market caps and acreage, then 10,500 AUT acres would have a "fair value" per PWC of $103.1m  /2350 * 10,500 = $460.66m or $1.67 per AUT share.  

 I appreciate that ADI have a little bit in their market cap for Yemen and that current cash figures are different from AUT's etc, but this is only a "broad-brush" approach to comparative value. 

 I consider that $1.67 per share is actually a minimum, because as Sugarloaf and surrounding Eagleford acreage gets more and more de-risked, the discounting percentages for value calculation will decrease considerably..... 

 In March 2010, for example,  Hartleys prepared a report on ADI which gave an unrisked value to their Sugarloaf net acreage of $268.7m ( 147.3m shares then in issue * 182.4 cents per share) . Grossing that up for AUT's acreage would give $268.7m / 2350 * 10500 acres = $1200.6m or  $4.36 per AUT share. The Hartley's numbers were also done before some of the recent excellent drilling results e.g. Morgan. 

 As I have said, these comparisons are very broad-brush, but even given some pretty wide margins for error, they still clearly demonstrate IMHO the future potential value in an AUT share.  There will always be some residual risk in a project and another big assumption I have made is, of course, that production levels from wells in the Sugarloaf Vs. the Longhorn & Ipanema acreage will be the same. We will need quite a few Longhorn & Ipanema  well results to know what level of confidence to assign to this ......

 Mind you, is there any chance of Longhorn & Ipanema delivering BETTER results than the Sugarloaf acreage??


----------



## estseon (4 July 2010)

Hi ton,

ignoring external factors (the fragile confidence of the financial markets etc) I have traded between ADI & AUT buying AUT at 1.5 x ADI or less and selling at around 2.5 ADI.

Currently, on the basis of the fair value figure for ADI, that being the most scrutinised available, I have bought at around the current price and will tender for more under the offer at 75 cents (about 1.25 ADI).

However, being mindful of external factors, I have retreated from the markets with the greater part of the ADI proceeds. It is not the path to optimised returns but it will allow me to sleep at night.


----------



## condog (5 July 2010)

Agent - thats a bit random and uncharachetirstic of you??? think you needed some coffee.
2nd post i like. ta.

Keep an eye on energy futures, its the best indicator we have. 

Ton - agree with much said, but Morgan so far is a stand out, an outlier in terms of using its numbers. 

I do however very much agree its been so far monumentally de risked as its:
Proven its technology
Proven the acerage is going to producs
Proven the Sugarloaf as one of the very sweet spots in the Eagleford
Proven to be reliable safe operators - so far

In terms of your values allow for tax and royalties
I agree well over the dollar and much hicher in 12-24 months time.

Looking forward to seeing what thier acerage acquisition might be.


----------



## tonudiki (5 July 2010)

condog said:


> Agent - thats a bit random and uncharachetirstic of you??? think you needed some coffee.
> 2nd post i like. ta.
> 
> Keep an eye on energy futures, its the best indicator we have.
> ...




 Yes, it will be interesting to see what the acreage acquisition is, and where. (Somewhere very condensate rich will do nicely!)

Just to clarify, my extrapolations of the potential value of an AUT share was from  ADI's recent Target's Statement "fair value" and also the earlier Hartleys report on ADI, both of which already included Taxes and royalties in their valuations and did not include the Morgan result.

 I agree that Morgan was (so far) an exceptional result and should not be used for realistic calculations at this stage.  I do wonder though, just how many "Morgans" are waiting to be discovered in AUT's acreage?


----------



## condog (6 July 2010)

Its not just us securing a stake in the eagleford energy play.



> India-based firm invests $1.3 billion in Eagle Ford Shale
> BY ROBERT FRANCIS
> July 05, 2010
> India-based oil and gas firm Reliance Industries Ltd. will pay $1.3 billion for a stake in the Eagle Ford Shale assets of Irving-based Pioneer National Resources Co.
> ...




This will put the Eagleford on the Radar in India, hopefully for us in the not to close future China will begin sniffing around too.

I personally detest a TO, but every bit of attention helps boost confidence.


----------



## AngusSmart (6 July 2010)

tonudiki said:


> Yes, it will be interesting to see what the acreage acquisition is, and where. (Somewhere very condensate rich will do nicely!)





People are talking about this new acreage acquisition? where was this is the news/announcements?

New flow rates out for rancho grande #1h today also


----------



## Agentm (6 July 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> People are talking about this new acreage acquisition? where was this is the news/announcements?
> 
> New flow rates out for rancho grande #1h today also




you can either acquire acreages by taking over a smaller player in your play and also looking to get more acreages as yet not leased

i can see both possibilities in the region for aut


----------



## sydneysider (6 July 2010)

condog said:


> Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).
> 
> Tack that onto higher oil price futures and the legislative risks and cost associated with the BP fallout and energy looks like being rediculously expensive in the not too distant future (medium term).
> 
> ...




Condog,

This year there has been NO rise in energy prices in the USA. Natural gas is near multi year lows because the USA has now discovered so much shale gas that it has about 120 year supply (and growing) on current consumption rates.  So nat gas is trading between $4-5 mcf down from record highs of $10-12 mcf of a few years back. This is seriously impacting oil prices that are having a hard time holding US$75 per barrel. Even gasoline which usually spikes at the begining of the summer driving season is barely holding on to US$2.00 gallon. At the local pumps it is down to around $2.55 - 2.65 gallon. I suspect that the push to convert the U.S. transporatation fleet to use local gas will get a decent lift from the fact that it now costs around half the price of diesel or gasoline for the same miles. All of this is keeping oil weak.


----------



## condog (6 July 2010)

sydneysider said:


> Condog,
> 
> This year there has been NO rise in energy prices in the USA. Natural gas is near multi year lows because the USA has now discovered so much shale gas that it has about 120 year supply (and growing) on current consumption rates.  So nat gas is trading between $4-5 mcf down from record highs of $10-12 mcf of a few years back. This is seriously impacting oil prices that are having a hard time holding US$75 per barrel. Even gasoline which usually spikes at the begining of the summer driving season is barely holding on to US$2.00 gallon. At the local pumps it is down to around $2.55 - 2.65 gallon. I suspect that the push to convert the U.S. transporatation fleet to use local gas will get a decent lift from the fact that it now costs around half the price of diesel or gasoline for the same miles. All of this is keeping oil weak.




gas up frm recent lows - at the time of writing. - has since fallen again

and oil "FUTURES" not oil - oil futures. At the time of writing where all upward of $80 for 2yr onwards. and where approaching $80 even within 12 months. They have since plumetted to just over $70 for the short termers.

Medium to long term oil futures doubled in the space of a few months at the time of writing that post. they are now droping sharply.

Yes right now oil is hovering. In my opinion long term outlook for energy according to the futures is looking good, but certainly not as good as it was 3-4 weeks ago. Of course thats based on a world economic recovery of sorts, not a faltering. Since writing that post several alarm bells have been raised re-double dips.... posibilities.

Yes right now outlook significantly weaker for global energy then when that post was written.

Updates on AUT are out today on T2, T3 and Morgan has 30 day flows over 1000bocpd


----------



## condog (6 July 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> People are talking about this new acreage acquisition? where was this is the news/announcements?
> 
> New flow rates out for rancho grande #1h today also




Is stated as one of the reasons for the Capital Raising on the news releases for CR and in the paper work sent to holders.


----------



## sydneysider (6 July 2010)

condog said:


> gas up frm recent lows - at the time of writing. - has since fallen again
> 
> and oil "FUTURES" not oil - oil futures. At the time of writing where all upward of $80 for 2yr onwards. and where approaching $80 even within 12 months. They have since plumetted to just over $70 for the short termers.
> 
> ...




Condog,

The impact of shale gas discoveries in the USA has been profound. Not only has it crashed oil prices, nat gas and gasoline BUT has also crashed other energy sources like uranium and decimated LNG use in the USA. The technology to drill for shale gas is now being exported overseas. One program that Exxon Mobil is running in Poland may have massive political and financial ramifications. Poland imports 75% of its gas from Russia. Some seers are saying that if Exxon is succesful in Poland then it may be able to replace ALL of the Russian gas with locally produced gas and have enough left over to sell into Europe. Their shale deposits are very large. Shale deposits are everywhere. This will spread cheaper energy across the planet. IMHO is one reasons why the US$ has been so strong over the last year.


----------



## condog (6 July 2010)

sydneysider said:


> Condog,
> 
> The impact of shale gas discoveries in the USA has been profound. Not only has it crashed oil prices, nat gas and gasoline BUT has also crashed other energy sources like uranium and decimated LNG use in the USA. The technology to drill for shale gas is now being exported overseas. One program that Exxon Mobil is running in Poland may have massive political and financial ramifications. Poland imports 75% of its gas from Russia. Some seers are saying that if Exxon is succesful in Poland then it may be able to replace ALL of the Russian gas with locally produced gas and have enough left over to sell into Europe. Their shale deposits are very large. Shale deposits are everywhere. This will spread cheaper energy across the planet. IMHO is one reasons why the US$ has been so strong over the last year.




Whilst i agree with your sentiment towards shale, it will play a huge role in boosting supply, theres a hell of a lot of issues to be overcome for each shale. Finding competent operators, rigs, equipment, frac crews,. Then theres the fact every shale has totally different characteristics, that take time to develope and understand.

Every shale requires infrastructure: ie roads or pipilines.

So yeh it will be big as it unfolds, but not as sudden and easy as many are predicting imo.  

Just an opinion, could be right or wrong.


----------



## mir (8 July 2010)

a good read

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $0.80) Buy
 Price Target: $1.32
 Reason For Update: Site Visit & 60-day Production Data
 What we know:
The Sugarloaf AMI JV (AUT – 10%) has released 60-day production results from their
Easely-1H and Morgan-1H.
Morgan-1H averaged 17.2mmscfe/day (vs. 30-day 19.1mmscfe/day), producing
65,200kkbls of condensate and 201mmscf of gas over the 60 days.
Easely-1H averaged 8.5mmscfe/day (vs. 30-day 10.1mmscfe/day), producing 19.6kkbls
of condensate and 221mmscf of gas over the 60 days.
Euroz has recently been to site with AUT and the operator Hilcorp.
Hilcorp are low cost focused translating to consistently achieving well costs of US$6.5m
(vs. Euroz’ forecast US$8m).
The Turnbull-1H result – specifi cally the oil ratios in the order of 5-600bbls/mmscf – has
prompted Hilcorp to increase drilling activity at 340acre spacing in the near term.
Consequently, the number of wells in CY’11 will increase from 16 to 25wells in the
Longhorn area and from 25 to 35wells overall.
Hilcorp most exited by Rancho Grande-1: the well was choked back (IP 1170bopd
and 3.2mmscf/d) to limit early decline. Early indications appear to support proof of
concept.
Kowalik re-drill will spud within the week.
 What we think:
The Morgan well has been exceptional; applying spot pricing, the well has grossed over
US$5.5m in 2 months vs. a well cost of <US$6.5m.
Whilst not as prolifi c – but noting the shorter horizontal well length – Easely has still
generated nearly US$3m on this basis.
This augers wells for fi eld development economics and further highlights the potential
of these wells to average 6mnths payback.
Furthermore, production decline has a tremendous bearing upon the ability for a
company to self-sustain its equity position: high equity positions (+50%) are hard to
fund given the pace of drilling in these plays in the US, particularly where decline rates
are translating to paybacks towards 2yrs in some areas.
The recent Turnbull-1H result is a terrifi c outcome, validating AUT and the JV’s view that
the Longhorn acreage would carry higher associated condensate levels (CGR of 600bbls/
mmscf vs 200 across Sugarloaf).
Similarly, we understand that the natural fracturing in the Turnbull area has resulted in
Turnbull-2H and 3H being in communication: this has huge potential in terms of reservoir
harvesting, particularly early in well life.
All information and advice is confi dential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any
account whatsoever on the part of Euroz Securities Limited or any member or employee thereof. Refer to full disclaimer at the end of this document.
7 of 33
Weekly Informer
AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES RESEARCH
The increased number of wells next year ie 30-35 (i/o 25; AUT av. participation at 20%) -
extra funding from the recent placement will be more than suffi cient given the rates of
production being realised (we estimate +2000boepd by the end of CY’11 on a discounted
basis ie $50m in revenue at spot prices.
Despite retaining conservative well cost assumptions of US$8m per well and the
minimum NRI (net revenue interest) of 71%, rolling over to FY’11 our valuation increases
to $1.32/sh price target due to the additional Longhorn drilling.
Corporate machinations are evident from heightening acquisition activity in the play –
the recent Reliance-Pioneer transaction; transaction equates to US$13K/acre (vs. AUT:
US$16K/acre on an EV basis fully diluted at 80cps).
Level of activity and production data disclosed suggests that the acreage is not as
prolifi c as the Sugarkane area. Their acreage has 5 wells on production at a combined
28mmmscf/day vs. AUT (5 wells) - but on our calculations - producing at ~60mmscf/day
gross (including 4000bopd) currently.
 Investment Case:
These latest production results continue to fi rm the credentials of AUT’s acreage within
the Eagle Ford play. A distinct trend of improving yield, higher pressure and lower
rates of decline is emerging. We remain attracted by the leverage to the oil price that is
offered via investment in AUT as well as the low risk and scalable growth to production
and earnings in the medium term. Buy.


----------



## condog (8 July 2010)

MIR

This valuation is spot on by Euroz.

Ive got it pegged at $1.29 at present and $2.34 for end of 2011 at present.

The market might actually wake up to the value on offer very soon, bolingers are tightening, consolidation has been prolonged, its low in its trading belt. Should see some action soon, based on both technicals and fundamnetals.


----------



## Slipperz (9 July 2010)

Back in today .

Had to chase em a bit but I'm fully reloaded.

The depth is looking interesting atm.... could be off for a run today


----------



## condog (10 July 2010)

Welcome back slipperz. 

After a lengthy consolidation and absence of big news this looks like the next leg up. 

With the Indians buyining into Pioneer, the Chinese buying into Chesapeak, KKR taking a slice, AWE scooping up ADI, Mobil taking  XTO, it looks like the Eagleford is getting the international attention it deserves in the M&A world.

With Euroz, PAttersons and Hartleys now covering the stock its getting up some momentum, its just a matter of time no with the new wells to be drilled, Kowalick and the Turnbull flows (which may well yet be very impressive) and we might see AUT surging towards Euroz price target of $1.32

The rebound in oil futures this week will help the situation as well.


----------



## Slipperz (10 July 2010)

condog said:


> Welcome back slipperz.
> 
> After a lengthy consolidation and absence of big news this looks like the next leg up.
> 
> ...




Thanks Condog, good to be back 

Been on the sidelines for a while now. 

Just wanted to see the post CR price settle and get some results in.

I've had a great couple of months ( aside from this week when I have taken a bath on market  despite the bullish sentiment about) and now hold as many AUT as I did when I left and a couple of other substantial holdings as well!

As you pointed out technically AUT is looking ready for the next leg up and I wanted to be in before we head off to the dollar and beyond.


Onwards and upwards !


----------



## condog (10 July 2010)

Lots of mixed up data to consider for this week.
Au economy looks very strong with good unemployment numbers, housing numbers are next week ??, but should pick up on the back of very low unemployment, possibly full employment.
IMF has revised up global growth figures 4.2% to 4.6%
China production is absolutely booming
Crude oil biggest week up in 9 months, up 5.8%
OECD and US consumer confidence ar weak
M & A activity in the eagleford continues and political risk to offshore oil contiunes to rise.

Over all, mixed, but more positive then negative.


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2010)

condog said:


> MIR
> 
> This valuation is spot on by Euroz.
> 
> ...



Sorry if I missed it condog but how did you come to $2.34? Why not $2.33? Always interesed in how people come up with fundamental valuations on these types of companies. Cheers.


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

kennas said:


> Sorry if I missed it condog but how did you come to $2.34? Why not $2.33? Always interesed in how people come up with fundamental valuations on these types of companies. Cheers.




Neptune was in line with pluto, and 4 degrees out of line with saturn which would have made it 2.33, but then i saw that venus was lined up with the moon, which definitely made it 2.34 rather then 2.33 

Same way i came up with 1.29 and Euroz come up with 1.32

Apply well flows and anticipated well flows to the drilling programs and projected drilling programs. This gives revenues, deduct taxes and royalties, apply a risk deduction and add some value 10% in my case for wells in the near future. Apply a discounted PE of say 10 compared to the sector and you come up with a valuation. I try to be conservative and be surprised to the upside, rather then get shocks.

Clearly though this is only a guide, but its a calculated guide, rather then a guess. 

I find this method allows me to compare it to other companies from differnet sectors, which is very important to my strategies.

If you go back to around page 17 of this thread you will see some of my spreadsheets where you can see my methodology.

Please note, do your own research, always seek expert advice and never act on information from forum posts, from anyone.


----------



## Slipperz (11 July 2010)

Just had a check on the US Market report for the week.

All the indicators are looking positive for the short to medium term pricewise 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp


----------



## Slipperz (11 July 2010)

Just having a beer and doing a bit of analysis on the recent little uptrend and I have just realised what a narrow uptrend we are ranging in 

Second realisation is that uptrend commenced after hitting support at the cap raising price ( it was an intraday low of 74 cents.) see below







My curiorisity then lead me to investigate volumes on that trading day (June 30th no less) and to my surprise they were very very low!






My conclusion?

It would seem that most AUT holders are onboard for the longer term and  the dilutory effect of the cap raising has had little to no effect as holders can see the potential rewards from the drilling program to follow.

And finally looking at price and volume action and the trading range at present any sort of good news aka the Turnbulls for instance will see us break resistance and be off and gone above the dollar mark quick smart!


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

Ype right now things look set for a very good week. The US and EU have behaved, although it wont take much for them to play up again, oil had a brilliant week, AU economy is powering, Eagleford is getting headlines everywhere, weve got over our SPP and CR imo, Kowalick and turnbulls, should be anticipated, and where cashed up to the hilt imo.

We have consolidated nicely over recent weeks while the rest of the market got punished and we look set imo both on a technical and fundamental ready for a good surge into the mid to late 90's with a pull back to late 80s or so.

Bollingers are tightish, RSI looks good, stochastics crossed, here we go by the looks.

Been wrong before, so DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## Slipperz (11 July 2010)

condog said:


> Ype right now things look set for a very good week. The US and EU have behaved, although it wont take much for them to play up again, oil had a brilliant week, AU economy is powering, Eagleford is getting headlines everywhere, weve got over our SPP and CR imo, Kowalick and turnbulls, should be anticipated, and where cashed up to the hilt imo.
> 
> We have consolidated nicely over recent weeks while the rest of the market got punished and we look set imo both on a technical and fundamental ready for a good surge into the mid to late 90's with a pull back to late 80s or so.
> 
> ...





Depth is looking stong as well.

Almost a 3:1 buyers to sellers ratio

If noone wants out in the morning and 85 cents goes we might have to bring out the bananas lol

:dance:


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Depth is looking stong as well.
> 
> Almost a 3:1 buyers to sellers ratio
> 
> ...




They will appear, no shortage of people trading small movements, but 920K on the buy side and only 380K on the sell side looks like a healthy start to the week. 

News is needed on the T's and Kow then we might see some action. Q4 is getting closer and closer and everyone knows what that means.

Also Morgan has basically paid itself off in the next week or so, which means its then fast tracking the repayment of the others.

As highlighted in that euroz report those natural fracs in the shale near T2, T3, could be fantastic for longevity of flow. Perhaps we will see some new decline rates far below elsewhere. Its only speculation, but it does add an element of anticipation towards the 60-90-120 day flow rates for the Turnbulls.


----------



## Agentm (11 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Just had a check on the US Market report for the week.
> 
> All the indicators are looking positive for the short to medium term pricewise
> 
> http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp





slipperz

just trying to understand what you saying here on the US side of things.

can you run it past me quickly where and what the short to medium term indicators are?


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

Agent ........c  mon

Stop playing silly buggers

You where optimistic on ADI, thick and thin through good times and bad.

Right now AUT looks better then ever and certainly better then ADI ever did. 

C  mon brother stop playing silly mind games hoping for a price pullback so you can get back in.

Since when did anyone ever need to justify the Eagleford to you. Youve been its biggest promoter in this forum for years, now suddenly your out and it looks better then ever, you want us to justify to you why we think its red hot.

Cmon dude, really, .....


----------



## Slipperz (11 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> slipperz
> 
> just trying to understand what you saying here on the US side of things.
> 
> can you run it past me quickly where and what the short to medium term indicators are?




Howdy Agentm.

Aside from the slight decline in futures prices this week given the huge demand for airconditioning on the east coast earlier in the week overall the August futures price is trading at at 35% premium to the 2009 price.

Not bad year on year? Especially given the US has been on struggle street all year.

That's indicator number one.

Number two is the decline in storage injections year on year " Working gas inventories are currently 23 Bcf below year-ago levels " 

Or roughly 2Bcf a month is coming out of inventory.

So the equation is strong supply and equally strong demand. Good news for the industry overall imo.

And if I were to say build a nice shiny low carbon emission gas fired turbine power plant in the US a healthy gas reserve would be a commercial necessity in my forward cost projections.

Lastly looking forward to the next twelve months the price looks to be fairly strong 
 "Although the September contract decreased by $0.06 per MMBtu during the report week, slightly more than the near-month contract, declines in futures prices were generally limited further into the forward curve. The 12-month strip, which is the average price of natural gas futures contracts over the next year, ended trading yesterday at $5.06 per MMBtu, a decrease of only $0.01 per MMBtu on the week."


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

Agent you must be slipping either through dis interest or other,  but no one bought to our attention the following two wells. One approved and one pending., May unit and Patinio unit


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

*Courtesy of MIR*

*Hartleys puts $1.23 target on AUT*



> AURORA OIL AND GAS LTD
> Site Visit Confirms Quality Price Target Increased
> We recently visited the projects of Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (Aurora, AUT, Company), located onshore Gulf Coast Texas. The field trip confirmed and increased our confidence in both the quality of the assets and the operator, Hilcorp. Hilcorp farmed in to AUTs acreage last year in exchange for completion of a work program over 10 wells. Aurora agreed to allow Hilcorp to recoup the costs of these wells from first revenue as part of the agreement.
> We have adjusted our assumptions around productivity, timing of development and cost and have reduced our risk discount to result in an increased valuation and price target, from 102cps to 123cps.
> ...




In my opinion $2.64 is too de risked at present, but i certainly think thats the direction we will head if we proceed accident and failure free, or if the market recovers somewhat.


----------



## mir (11 July 2010)

i posted this on HC

this time I'll only post a bit of the report or it might get moderated again ,if anyone wants a copy i can email it(proga i wouldn't want you to miss this one, very good & very detailed lol).hartley put $2.64 on AUT based on results only from morgan, rancho & turnbull as these were the latest wells.


AURORA OIL AND GAS LTD
Site Visit Confirms Quality Price Target Increased
We recently visited the projects of Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (Aurora, AUT, Company), located onshore Gulf Coast Texas. The field trip confirmed and increased our confidence in both the quality of the assets and the operator, Hilcorp. Hilcorp farmed in to AUTs acreage last year in exchange for completion of a work program over 10 wells. Aurora agreed to allow Hilcorp to recoup the costs of these wells from first revenue as part of the agreement.
We have adjusted our assumptions around productivity, timing of development and cost and have reduced our risk discount to result in an increased valuation and price target, from 102cps to 123cps.

Our current valuation assumes initial flow rates of 4 million cubic feet of gas per day with 800 barrels of condensate per day (actual average to date is 4.5 million cubic feet of gas per day with 1,073 barrels of condensate see Fig. 1). This gives a risked valuation of 164cps (risk is slowly being wound out as more wells are drilled). If we were to use the averages from the Morgan, Rancho Grande and Turnbull 1 of 3.3 million cubic feet of gas per day with 1,370 barrels of condensate our valuation would increase to 264cps.
Recent well performance suggests our assumptions are conservative and may result in improved economics and increased valuations in the future.
Increasing condensate ratio


----------



## condog (11 July 2010)

2, possibly three broker upgrades, slightly improved market sentiment in the Us, AU economy strong, energy prices recovered 5.8%, buyer numbers way up and sellers way down relative to numbers for the past few weeks.

Looks like a great start to the week. Well better then the doom and gloom of late anyway.


----------



## Sean K (11 July 2010)

condog said:


> Neptune was in line with pluto, and 4 degrees out of line with saturn which would have made it 2.33, but then i saw that venus was lined up with the moon, which definitely made it 2.34 rather then 2.33
> 
> Same way i came up with 1.29 and Euroz come up with 1.32
> 
> ...




OK



condog said:


> Given the calamity hitting markets this week ive re-done my calculations.
> 
> Based on the 30 day flows provided for Weston and Kennedy. Morgan ive estimated 1200bc/d + 1.2MMgas, Rancho T1 T2 T3 and Ip at 750 bc/d & 2mmcfg/d. Kowalick unfixed, or fixed at 600bc and 3.3MM.
> 
> ...



OK, I'll tuck that away.

Sounds like the stock is on the way to 8.49 plus, best case. Nice. 

Cheers.


----------



## rockhound308 (11 July 2010)

Interesting..
Patino Unit plots in Impanema so that must make May unit a Sugarloaf well or we will have 2 new Impanema wells?  Any thoughts agent? 
The second rig cant be too far away.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 July 2010)

This looks like it needs to break through resistance levels arround $0.88 if it is ever going to go over $2.00. At the moment it looks more likely to trade in a sideways channel with possible support levels of $0.75  and $0.76. 
If it falls below these support levels it is hard to see where it may bounce from. $0.40?


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> This looks like it needs to break through resistance levels arround $0.88 if it is ever going to go over $2.00. At the moment it looks more likely to trade in a sideways channel with possible support levels of $0.75  and $0.76.
> If it falls below these support levels it is hard to see where it may bounce from. $0.40?




Nulla first time ive seen you in here. Fortunately theres a hell of a lot more to this stock then your graph indicates. Such as the established TO value of ADI recently at 40c with 1/4 the acerage. The $36M cash in the bank and accelerated drilling program, the staggeringly good and best of the Eagleford published results of Morgan well. etc etc the list goes on.

With a massively over subscribed CR in past weeks at 75c theres a massive resistance point at 75c or above so it would seem given the market and erergy prices of recent weeks, with AUT pullback being significantly less then other stocks and staying above its CR point of 75c.

Theres also a very clear trading band on that graph and a breakout not shown.  Infact it has to climb significantly to retest.

Redbeard -  a fellow technical - shows a different point of view.
http://s674.photobucket.com/albums/vv103/totterdell91/AUT_2010-07-10103726.png

Any way we can argue about charts till the cows come home, some dont even believe the work. Fact is so far AUT has been a purely fundamental news driven stock, and in the short term will remain so. 

From a technical point i think at present the thing worth noting is it has just broken out of its downward consolidation and looks set to test a new high??
From a fundamental view we are expecting Kowalick and Turnbulls very soon , and the entire Eagleford is littered with massive merger and acquisition activity.


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Agent wheres your usually reliable photos and info on 
May unit and Patinio unit the two new wells announced on TRRC on 2 and 9th July. For sure they are building a pad at least on may unit by now.


See last post on page 30 of this thread.


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Also try this for style

http://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/hilcorp-energy-shares-the-wealth/?src=busln

No wonder Hilcrop get the job done so well, pardon the pun.


----------



## Agentm (12 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Howdy Agentm.
> 
> Aside from the slight decline in futures prices this week given the huge demand for airconditioning on the east coast earlier in the week overall the August futures price is trading at at 35% premium to the 2009 price.
> 
> ...




lol kennas, somehow i think its slipping by the keeper here..

nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?

thanks for the reply slipperz..

i almost swear there is a poster here (very exuberant) almost trying to talk for you..lol

i would like to look at some real possibilities here with you if i could..

i read the report closely and saw some trends, the oil seemed to just rise with a very large rise on the S&P which was on remarkable volumes.. like literally trading on vapour!!!  but today the profit takers took hold and sold it down again.. but trends in the US are anything but brilliant, i wonder how many 3pm pumps there will be in the future?

anyway, i am watching oils path closely, and it impact on the sp is the primary factor on whether i invest in the sector again.

looking at eka, its going yet again for capital, very predictably.. and it seems the aut spruikers whom earlier talked up the ability of the small caps to keep up with the massive capital requirements with only a few million in the bank, and laughed at any comments on capital requirements made by me, now are suddenly not laughing nor criticising me any more,  so pointing out how completely wrong they were on the ability of these small caps to survive in the acreages they have obligated to seems to have come and gone, and suddenly aut is this amazing share thats going to go to some massive $2 or $8 share.  what on earth is going on here?

what else are they wrong on??

upside is there, but i know what the leasing costs are now, and i know what a sudden fall in oil prices does to the operations.. it just shuts it down.. massive downside risks are very much needed to be calculated by the recent sophisticated investors..  fair value for what you have now, not later is where reality is ...

whats strange with the gas prices in the US slipperz.. is the massive expansions into the shales are producing so much gas, that imports are reducing, and gas prices look to be suppressed for a long long time..  and oil imho can not be looking at a run up unless something happens globally to drive it..  i see NIL there driving the US economy up. all indicators i look at are bleak..

for me, i see oil pipeline companies not really driving hard into the region for a long time, so where is all the gas going to go?

pipelines are at capacity in the region.. and you cant just flare the gas off

my view on gas is that its looking at a downward leg.. long term, and gas is at capacity in the region..

my oil outlook is undecided..

what do you see on the oil going slipperz yourself?


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Agent i will say little for fear of offending you. But basically thats absolute dribble.

Right now enterprise is building a 24" pipeline as well as the pipelines running right past much of our acerage. Our high condensate ratio makes us one of the most attractive in the entire Eagleford. 

40c what an absolute load of  !@$%!@#$!@ . 

You where in ADI and believed in itt  for 4 years despite your investment being premature to the technology arriving. You then got into AUT, told everyone ot was ana absolute no brainer, got out and suddenly despite multiple new wells, a very successful CR, and the two highest flowing wells with tow of the highest condensate ratios in the entire Eagleford and suddenly you expect us to expect to believe the outlook has changed to negative.

The technology has finally arrived and AUT with the help of hilcorp are applying it and adding value at every turn. 

Enough said.


----------



## Sdajii (12 July 2010)

You've certainly flipped very quickly from oil oil oil go go go to being an oil bear. Is it just coincidence that happened at the same time AWE stole ADI?


----------



## mir (12 July 2010)

i also like this bit in the Hartleys report imo could significantly re-rate AUT.

Maiden Reserve Report July 2010
Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc (NSAI) undertook an independent resource estimate over Auroras acreage in September 2009, as depicted in the figure below. At this time, no multi stage fracture stimulated horizontal wells had been drilled and a conservative recovery factor for the Eagle Ford Shale of 7% (Best Estimate) was used. Given well performance on the acreage and recovery factors achieved in other shale plays it is possible that an ultimate recovery factor of 22% may be more appropriate. Our time with the Texas Crude geologist also highlighted large potential upside in the development of the shale, as it may be possible to produce from multiple horizons over the interval and also decrease well spacing significantly. This all depends on assumptions around whether the current fracture stimulations are resulting in drainage of a small percentage over a large area, or a large percentage over a small area.
Whilst it is hard to predict what assumptions NSAI will use for the maiden reserve report, we believe that there is potential for an upside surprise for the market. A significant portion of the field has been proven by wells (see Fig. 2), which should contribute towards a decent 2P number, although we expect that most reserves will be categorised as 3P until more wells are drilled and there is more production history.


----------



## Agentm (12 July 2010)

Sdajii said:


> You've certainly flipped very quickly from oil oil oil go go go to being an oil bear. Is it just coincidence that happened at the same time AWE stole ADI?




sdajii, i was discussing oil prices with slipperz..  whats with the accusation i have flipped??? what am i flipping on? i am discussing aut and its potential with slippez in respect to what i think is a primary valuation. the price of oil..



 btw i had massive capital tied up in adi for a long long time, during the gfc, and hoping adi did not go into liquidation, and believe me, i have never talked up oil like you claim

not sure how awe stole adi?  

and i have never been a oil oil oil go go go bull sdajii.. i ask you to please explain where that came from???  oil went from $30 to $80 and saved adi from liquidation.. not a bull at all, just a realist on the prices that occurred.. 

but sdajii. i ask you a question here.. as you claim adi was a steal at .42.. why is aut not $1.10??? why aut give away its shares at .75 in the cap raising, and not $1.10?? why are you not writing letters to the management on how badly they got their valuations here??? surely you cant allow a steal at .42 be allowed to become absolute highway robbery at .75 for the aut shareholders.. isnt dilution like that an issue to you?

i gather your an investor in aut, so please explain how a act of theft at .42 for awe, is not downright highway robbery at .75 which is about 50%  the adi/aut 2.5 ratio??

TIA


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Agent thats utter garbage,  IMO.

I understand your concerns around a potential GFC2 we all have it in the back of our mind. But in focusing on AUt and the eagleford, wow. I certainly dont agree with you and in fact i think your incredibly wrong and your sentiment has changed remarkebly, in fact unbeleivably, un palletably.



MIR

I just read that Hartleys report ta dude for bringin it to my attention 

What a read, anyone reading that must be dribbling from a corner of thier mouth like i am.  Its one thing to be told by AUt through announcments, but its encouraging when brokers are singing praise like Hartleys are on this baby.

Points of interest imo

July reserves upgrade
AUT reserves estimate was based on 7% recovery, Hartleys now thinks 22% is more realistic.
$1.23 target with $1.64 when longhorn averages are applied
*Possible forward* 
work as hilcorp and KKR want action - 10-13 wells in 2010 with majority in AMI and 2-3 in Ipenema
AUT involved in approx 37 wells predominently in Longhorn in 2011
Hartleys impressed with the quality of hilcorp equipment and work, much higher then peers
Best initial and 30 day flows in the entire eagleford for Longhorn
Longhorn makes up 65% of AUT's acerage
Changes in technology, fluids, techniques and stage numbers with lenghts likely to be around 5000ft should produce higher averages
Morgan earned 4.4M in 2 months

Half of Longhorn is likely to need 320 acre drilling as its classified as oil 
Possible debt facility in H2 2011 to fund Longhorn 320 acre drilling.


----------



## Agentm (12 July 2010)

condog said:


> Agent i will say little for fear of offending you. But basically thats absolute dribble.
> 
> Right now enterprise is building a 24" pipeline as well as the pipelines running right past much of our acerage. Our high condensate ratio makes us one of the most attractive in the entire Eagleford.
> 
> ...




condog. just about everything you say to me is offensive..

the .40 is something nulla stated. i guess cash value is always a concern on small caps.. 

when nulla mentioned .40 you took no offence to it, when i commented to nulla on it you appeared to think you can have free licence to be abusive..

i invested in adi, not the technology.. i have to correct you many times here.. shale technology was not developed with adi nor the jvp.. they discovered nothing, shale technology came from other plays. and is nothing new... your very much mistaken there.. in fact, aspects of how hilcorp are dealing with the shale play are very concerning to me atm.. but i am not going to discuss that on the forums in case i invest.. its something i am keeping a close watch on.. but its sure as heck not being discussed by anyone atm thats for sure..

re my investment in the adi share and its holding in the eagleford play, is not something i believed in, its something i researched and was imho feasible, subject to three factors being correct, cashflow, lease pricing and oil prices..  i always had the conclusion the AMI acreages were the premium acreages. i did not sell off in the gfc. i looked at the possibility of oil prices coming back, and the possibility of the adi directors surviving any liquidation, and invested further funds in the play when opportunity arose. sure i made a few bucks, but i have much more profit, and way quicker, before being trapped in the adi limbo for 12 months or more with the gfc..

my adi investment and an later buy into aut was an absolute no brainer.. i totally agree, enjoyed every cent of profit the share delivered from .40's to the .80's

sold out and sat out the cap raising, which was discussed and totally not believed by yourself, you became super animated and hostile on any mention of a cap raising.. which imho demonstrated how short sighted you are on this play.

now they were a complete steal at .75 if you think the AWE .40 price was not fair.. you have to agree the management of aut gave them away for zip.. but you dont object at all?? either are the sophisticated investors obviously!!

i have been looking at eka, which needed to raise capital, and aut also in the recent weeks, but have yet to be driven in any way to invest..

i have never said any outlook in aut is negative, please point out what post on aut has been pointing out anything negative on it.

imho aut has upside, but i am discussing the oil price with slipperz atm..

just take a chill pill and allow a forum to discuss things.. slipperz imho demonstrates some ability to diagnose and discuss issues, i am just discussing oil/gas prices with him if its ok with all here..

cheers


----------



## Slipperz (12 July 2010)

Howdy again Agentm,

I'm a bit more bullish on oil than gas at this stage.

As you mentioned there is a potential for a gas supply glut in the US with increasing shale production...but there is also a trend towards cleaner energy aka gas fired power stations and gas powered vehicle fleets.

That is where the excess production will go imho and the Obama administration seems keen to head down that road as well.

LNG exporters are sending their ships to energy hungry North Asia for a 7.50 spot price for gas rather than North America creating further demand for cheaper domestic supplies

As for oil.. sheesh such a volatile commoditity. 

Overall I'm quite bullish on car sales growth in places like China, India and Brazil to propel the price upwards  as western consumers buy more fuel efficient vehicles and hybrids which will balance  fuel efficiency against growth.

Other factors are many and varied... environmental..will offshore exploration decrease driving up the price?

Socio and macroeconomnic...overall the reports I'm reading are for reasonable growth globally. Bullish?

The joker in the pack is the geopolitical. Instability in the Niger delta, the vipers nest of pirates and reprobates on the Horn of Africa and the Iranians across the gulf. And the central asian fields aren't exactly a model of stability either.

Downwards pressures?

The Iraqi fields are hugely underdeveloped and plenty of  unexplored lands there as well.

And Chavez and the Saudis might get together and turn on the tap a bit at 
Opec.

Double dip recession in the US?

Put it all together and I come out on favour of the  oil price steady and rising  into 2011.


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> condog. just about everything you say to me is offensive..



Wow??? thats a big call and incredibly hostile


> the .40 is something nulla stated. i guess cash value is always a concern on small caps..



Clearly Nulla has little knowledge of the fundamentals and is commenting from a technical perspective which i commented against



> when nulla mentioned .40 you took no offence to it, when i commented to nulla on it you appeared to think you can have free licence to be abusive..



That wasnt abusive..



> i invested in adi, not the technology.. i have to correct you many times here.. shale technology was not developed with adi nor the jvp..



Clearly but your timing of investment in ADI relied on untested undeveloped and proven technology. My point is not to diminish the profit you made, but to highlight that you where eternally and unfaltering in your otpimism, despite little to know oil ever flowing till just receently, and clearly now EKA, AUt and ADI would be far better investment propositions then at any other time during that peiod of time.



> in fact, aspects of how hilcorp are dealing with the shale play are very concerning to me atm..



Such as what , the fact they have the highest two initial flows and 30 day flows in the entire eagleford??



> re my investment in the adi share and its holding in the eagleford play, is not something i believed in, its something i researched and was imho feasible, subject to three factors being correct, cashflow, lease pricing and oil prices..  i always had the conclusion the AMI acreages were the premium acreages.



Clearly the results from Longhorn highlight that is likely to be an error of judgment, an understandable one. Hartleys report confirms this with higher condensate ratios in the NW direction from the AMI.




> my adi investment and an later buy into aut was an absolute no brainer.. i totally agree, enjoyed every cent of profit the share delivered from .40's to the .80's



Its imo more a no brainer now then ever, opinions differ.



> sold out and sat out the cap raising, which was discussed and totally not believed by yourself, you became super animated and hostile on any mention of a cap raising..



 Disagree, not hostile, i dint believe it would be so soon, but in hindsight i was proven wrong and given the result am glad i was.



> which imho demonstrated how short sighted you are on this play.



Wrong , im long , looking for late 2011 prior to selling any. although circumstances do change and if i take a negative view on any MAJOR developments id be out in a flash.



> now they were a complete steal at .75 if you think the AWE .40 price was not fair.. you have to agree the management of aut gave them away for zip.. but you dont object at all?? either are the sophisticated investors obviously!!



I was away enjoying the snow of Queenstown NZ, but thought it was fair given the rapidly falling oil prices and the overall market panic at the time.




> i have been looking at eka, which needed to raise capital, and aut also in the recent weeks, but have yet to be driven in any way to invest..



Good make your own decisions



> i have never said any outlook in aut is negative, please point out what post on aut has been pointing out anything negative on it.



 Youve certainly implied it many times since getting out, and more so since getting out of ADI in my opinion.



> imho aut has upside, but i am discussing the oil price with slipperz atm..



 No i dont believe you where, only discussing that.



> just take a chill pill and allow a forum to discuss things.. slipperz imho demonstrates some ability to diagnose and discuss issues, i am just discussing oil/gas prices with him if its ok with all here..
> 
> cheers




Fine, but i believe you have made implied and direct reference to price falls, several times lately


> nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?



I believe that was an implied  price proposition, not a discussion about oil 12th July


> i almost swear there is a poster here (very exuberant) almost trying to talk for you..lol



 I believe this was not a discussion of oil price? It was an indirect personal attack.

Any way lets just get on with it, demonstrate integrity and have a great thread like ADI used to be.


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Slipperz i agree with all.

The big thing new readers need to consider is its looking like AUT income will be predominently linked to oil with the LNG prices rather then the dry gas prices often quoted in the media.

65% of AUT interest is in Longhorn which is to the North West of the AMI and looks like being very liquid rich.

All the sources im reading, which most are paid subscriptions of high quality are also calling a volatile but steady appreciation of energy prices at present.

China and India dependent and dependent on a US slow recovery.


----------



## Sdajii (12 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> sdajii, i was discussing oil prices with slipperz..  whats with the accusation i have flipped??? what am i flipping on? i am discussing aut and its potential with slippez in respect to what i think is a primary valuation. the price of oil..
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I don't think we need bother getting into specific points here. It's pretty clear you were extremely enthusiastic and positive about ADI until recently, and AUT too. I remember you congratulating me recently when I picked up AUT at 66c during one of the brief slumps, yet now you seem to be talking about a 40c bounce? Take a look at the ADI threads, your glowing works, frequent updates with pictures, excitment, etc. Now you have changed. It's not like I'm just imagining this change, it is there. I'm not saying it's bad or wrong, but it is there, it's unexplained, and curiously, you're denying it.

AWE wouldn't have paid 42c for ALL of ADI if they weren't very much convinced that it was worth substantially more than that. Before the 40c offer, ADI was trading well below 40c. Yes, I do think AUT is good value at 75c and yes, I would be very upset if I was forced to sell my holding for 75c. Dilution sucks, but I can buy my share in the SPP, so to some extent it's okay. Also, comparing a hostile take over price to a SPP price isn't exactly apples and apples. One pushes the price up, the other down (at least temporarily). One is an unnecessary evil, the other is a necessary thing. In any case, bringing this topic up doesn't seem relevant to the question you were responding to without answering (what caused your clear and sudden change in attitude towards the Texas oil?).

Answering a question with a question rather than an answer is the tactic used by folk such as politicians reluctant to reveal what's going on.


----------



## condog (12 July 2010)

Sdajii said:


> I don't think we need bother getting into specific points here. It's pretty clear you were extremely enthusiastic and positive about ADI until recently, and AUT too. I remember you congratulating me recently when I picked up AUT at 66c during one of the brief slumps, yet now you seem to be talking about a 40c bounce? Take a look at the ADI threads, your glowing works, frequent updates with pictures, excitment, etc. Now you have changed. It's not like I'm just imagining this change, it is there. I'm not saying it's bad or wrong, but it is there, it's unexplained, and curiously, you're denying it.
> 
> AWE wouldn't have paid 42c for ALL of ADI if they weren't very much convinced that it was worth substantially more than that. Before the 40c offer, ADI was trading well below 40c. Yes, I do think AUT is good value at 75c and yes, I would be very upset if I was forced to sell my holding for 75c. Dilution sucks, but I can buy my share in the SPP, so to some extent it's okay. Also, comparing a hostile take over price to a SPP price isn't exactly apples and apples. One pushes the price up, the other down (at least temporarily). One is an unnecessary evil, the other is a necessary thing. In any case, bringing this topic up doesn't seem relevant to the question you were responding to without answering (what caused your clear and sudden change in attitude towards the Texas oil?).
> 
> Answering a question with a question rather than an answer is the tactic used by folk such as politicians reluctant to reveal what's going on.




Thats what i was trying to say, but in an apparently offensive way. I didnt mean to be offensive, but yes this is what i meant 100%.

Your change of heart and sentiment is so apparnet, and in my opinion i cant find anything to justify it other then the fact you sold out of ADI and AUT. 

All other factors look better then when you sold. The oil price is relatively similar, the post CR sentiment is excellent.

It baffles me???  Why the sudden and severe change.  Whats the justification???


----------



## Agentm (12 July 2010)

condog said:


> Thats what i was trying to say, but in an apparently offensive way. I didnt mean to be offensive, but yes this is what i meant 100%.
> 
> Your change of heart and sentiment is so apparnet, and in my opinion i cant find anything to justify it other then the fact you sold out of ADI and AUT.
> 
> ...




lol


"whats the justification??"

what are you on condog? you think i have to justify anything to you?

you seem to demand things condog.. your arrogance and attitude towards me is remarkable, its almost as if your berating me for looking at oil prices and  aut and discussing it with slipperz.. 

condog, i dont have justify any reasons to you in any way in regards to discussing the price of oil with slipperz..


----------



## nunthewiser (12 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> lol
> 
> 
> "whats the justification??"
> ...





Its not just you . My posts have been reported because of my view on price targets.. i admit i should have worded them better so as not to call a spade a spade and i have now taken that under my belt.

This thread it seems, if one offers an alternative view to the  overall consensus, that opinion is berated and leads to an argument instead of both sides being heard.

I admit from a personal basis that i should may have been more tactful in my pointing out of the opposing side of the coin and now am hesitant to actually post what i actually want to post towards some here.

Dear agentm , Nulla . your analaysis and viewpoints are just as valid as any other opinions here and please do not let ppls better worded abuse sway your view and stop you posting the other side of the coin.

p.s nice chart and commentary Nulla and i fully agree with your views on a major corrective move to bring the trend and market cap to a more realistic level on this stock.
It may not happen but it is a realistic and UNBIASED viewpoint that perhaps should be listened to instead of scorned.

Be assured that all abusive responses to alternative viewpoints made in this thread will be now reported also just to keep the game fair.

haveaniceday.


----------



## 5haretrader (12 July 2010)

Perhaps if we left the personal sniping of posters in this thread to private conversations we could get back onto discussing the stock itself 

Not going to take sides on the argument, but agentm picked the timeing of the cap raising to a 'T'. Condog has analysed this stock immensely and we are all the more wiser from his efforts. How about we call a truce and just accept that both of you have contributed in your own way to the forum, no more personal attacks neccessary?


----------



## nunthewiser (12 July 2010)

Technical analysis chart to follow.

It takes time for me to work out how to do it, hence why i usually voice my thoughts rather than show it.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 July 2010)

forgive the basics but whats in my head cannot be reproduced in a printed analytical manner.

you get what you get.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 July 2010)

But hey .......... it could always bust up all  those stars allighning and run for the moon .........in which case i will trade it and go with  the flow in a not so DANGEROUS area..

I am not currently holding , unbiased and happy to trade it.

i just regard this current area it is in a highly DANGEROUS pivot point and if it busts south it will catch a few out.

I personally would not enter here as the risk level is too high for my own personal use but would reconsider on a break north and maybe a retest  OR another look between .66.and .72 if it made it .

from there i would be at ready on close watch to analyze the actual action at time to see who was playing the action.

If it broke south from there i would be waiting a proper grounding before looking again.



p.s i just noticed chart and it seemed i got vol transfer correct but didnt point out the obvious


----------



## stefan_invester (13 July 2010)

Hey everyone
im a bit stuck...
cant decide whether or not i should get into the SPP at 0.75
or wait and see if the share price heads down south, if it dosent, than
i feel that if i don't do the SPP than i have missed out big time, but if it does go south, than the SPP would have been a HUGE mistake.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated 
cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (13 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?




Yes this is where I see the lower support level. I inadvertedly posted support level of $0.75 and $0.76 when I meant to post $0.75 then $0.68. After that I see the next level of support at $0.40.



condog said:


> 40c what an absolute load of  !@$%!@#$!@ .




Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.



condog said:


> Clearly Nulla has little knowledge of the fundamentals and is commenting from a technical perspective which i commented against




Supply & Demand. Production and Sales. From what I have read, demand is falling and there is an oversupply developing. This leaves production and sales?
IMO that $0.40 support levels is has more likelihood of being tested than $2.00.


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

Well guys clearly your entitled to your opinions and clearly our opinions differ very much. Its ashame you need to launch into name calling Agent, i thought you where above that behaviour. My question was at your behaviour not you personally. 

Nun, its always entertaining to read your posts, very honest, always stirring and a great devils advocate. I reported you not because of your opinion, but becasue you pretended to be posting information from a broker that was infact your old username.

In terms of your price targets I feel id rather trust Hartleys $1.23, and Euroz $1.32 then your guide which has no detailed analysis or reasoning.

A simple trendline gives us a reasonable guide where its heading, but right now its ultimately imo a news driven stock, with price catlyst being new wells and flow data.


With hilcorps 2nd rig about to arrive and a 3rd rig planned in early 2011 this trendline may actually turn upwards.


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.



Very very true. But this one has risen with value added by each new producing well. 




nulla nulla said:


> Supply & Demand. Production and Sales. From what I have read, demand is falling and there is an oversupply developing. This leaves production and sales?



No doubt dry gas oversupply and problems appear to be developing. This in my opinion is why AUT is one of the most attractive in the entire Eagleford. They have the two highest IP's and 30 day flows in the entire eagleford and they are extremely liquid rich. Plus theres a clear liquids trend developing showing more liquids in the NW direction as pointed out in the Hartleys report. Longhorn is to the NW and is higher interest and makes up 65% of AUT interests. Liquids tend to track the oil price and supply demand characteristics. They are also easily transportable in eneryg dense liquid form.


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

From Hartleys report and of significant interest - discl - far less then 10% of entire article.

Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.

Also
Aurora is well funded to contribute its share of the costs of the aggressive program. The acceleration of drilling has increased the net present value of the assets and shortened the timeframe to significant earnings and cashflow.

If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.

And 

Hilcorp expects to have 3 rigs operational in 2011 and one full time frac crew. Each rig will be a Flex 3 build, capable of ~22 day spud to spud performance.

Hilcorp plans to drill 40-50 wells next year with AUT likely to participate in ~75% of these. The timing of drilling which area is largely dependent on lease expiry. This means that the majority of drilling this year will be focussed on the Sugarloaf AMI (5-7 wells), with 2-3 wells also likely on the Ipanema AMI. Next year, the majority of wells will be on the Longhorn AMI.


----------



## Joe Blow (13 July 2010)

The name calling, snide remarks and insults end here or I will not hesitate to close this thread. And no, this is not open for discussion so please do not reply to this post.

Lets just stick to the facts and analysis shall we?


----------



## AngusSmart (13 July 2010)

condog said:


> From Hartleys report and of significant interest - discl - far less then 10% of entire article.
> 
> Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.
> 
> ...




the only part of that report that concerned me was the wells on oil rich areas have to be closer..



> As previously mentioned, the Turnbull 1H well had a very high GOR. This meant that it had to be filed as an oil well. In order to hold acreage for oil fields in the area, a well must be drilled every 320 acres, as opposed to ~1,000 acres for a gas field. The implication of this is that it is likely that a significant portion of Longhorn will require 320 acre spacing of wells (we estimate 50%). This means more drilling in a short timeframe at Longhorn, which also is the area that we believe has the best economics and is Aurora’s largest exposure. If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.





But they should be well funded by then one would imagine.. Now i wish i could find my letter about that 75c offer.... looks like i will have to miss it..


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

Enterprise Products Partners will construct 563 km of new pipeline to expand its natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline system to accommodate growing production volumes from the Eagle Ford Shale play, Texas, the United States of America.

Three additional pipeline segments totalling 270 km will be added to Enterprise’s East – West Rich Gas Mainline. 

The first phase will involve the installation of 42 km of 24 inch diameter pipeline extending the mainline to the far western reaches of the Eagle Ford Shale. The remaining 228 km, to be built in two segments, will comprise of 30 and 36 inch diameter pipelines that will serve the eastern portion of the Eagle Ford Shale. 

Upon completion, the Eagle Ford Shale Rich Gas Mainline System and associated laterals will consist of approximately 483 km of pipelines representing gathering and transportation capacity of more than 600 MMcf/d of gas.


----------



## nioka (13 July 2010)

My "take" on AUT. I called 75c as fair value for the SPP. I also said that I would take up the offer. I have. I've also bought on market at 75c. 

Unless there is a "duster" or a "serious event" then I believe that it is "onwards and upwards" from here. The only reason I see that there may be for more capital to be needed will be to fund extensive drilling. This will only occur if the results will justify the expenditure (as is the case with the present cap raising). In which case the future earnings will justify the additional capital.

There are reasons why others may differ in their opinion they may be right, they may be wrong but opinions are just that, opinions. Here you have mine.


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

*Reliance buys Eagle Ford shale project pie*


> Mumbai: Reliance Industries (RIL) will invest $1.36 billion to acquire 45% interest in a joint venture for Eagle Ford shale acreage of Texas in the US, its second investment in a shale gas asset in three months.
> 
> You may also want to see
> Reliance Life on lookout for strategic investor, plans IPO
> ...



This equates to around $11440 per gross acre or $25000+ per net acre. When you multiply that out by AUt net acerage and a 45% interest, If Reliance purchased a 45% interst in AUT at the same cost per acer it would cost them $125M ish.

Extrapolate that to a 100% interest as a guide to value for AUT and you get an mcap of approx $279M ish

At 84c AUT has an mcap of $210M ish

Given AUT has the two best wells and is proving to be very liquid rich a small premium should be applied of around 10-20% or so imo. Which would equate to an mcap of approx $307M to $334M based on the Reliance / Pioneer deal of recent weeks.

On that basis it makes current AUT look cheap.

Based on that takeover AUT is actually underpriced.


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

KKR are back into the Eagleford, theres usually a quick profit involved when KKR get involved from my experienc, having been on the recieving end of them a few times.


> KKR went to work. Last year it paid about $350 million for a minority stake of East Resources, earning a quick profit of more than $1 billion when Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) bought most of the company's assets 11 months later. In June, KKR signed a deal with Hilcorp Energy, a closely held exploration and production company based in Houston, to develop the Eagle Ford formation southeast of San Antonio.



From Businessweek.com


----------



## Huitzii (13 July 2010)

AUT are looking quite promising stasticly at the moment.
The last 3 months have shown a positive gain and seem to be under valued.
They have been consistently above the 68 day average and bollinger bands are indicating a change in trend, hopefully this will be an upward trend.
At the moment the sellers are controlling this one and it looks very promising.
I hold AUT
DYOR


----------



## prgudula (13 July 2010)

if the link is not posted earlier on AUT and SSN
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-and-more-on-tax/story-e6frg9ex-1225891071532


----------



## condog (13 July 2010)

Huitzii said:


> AUT are looking quite promising stasticly at the moment.
> The last 3 months have shown a positive gain and seem to be under valued.
> They have been consistently above the 68 day average and bollinger bands are indicating a change in trend, hopefully this will be an upward trend.
> At the moment the sellers are controlling this one and it looks very promising.
> ...




I think theres plenty of holders who might be maxed out selling to take up the SPP at 8-11c cheaper then sp. 

Its a bit of a punt as CGT is payable on the sale and a scale back might or might not get applied. Its tempting, but i think its holding the SP back till friday.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 July 2010)

Yep as indicated on my chart and analysis posted last night , the sellers are definately in control of this one at present.

Yet another bounce off the major resistance line and south she heads . 

My chart post shows where i think the likely turning/bounce points are and on current and yesterdays action i am inclined to reiterate that my ST target will be met.

i could be wrong but at present it sure is following my analysis to plan (scroll back)


----------



## AngusSmart (13 July 2010)

Has anyone thought about the rise Aut got when the Adi offer was put thru from Awe?

once that offer is gone, you'd expect to see adi drop? would this play onto AUT also since the offer was somewhat responsible for the jump in price..


----------



## Huitzii (13 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Yep as indicated on my chart and analysis posted last night , the sellers are definately in control of this one at present.
> 
> Yet another bounce off the major resistance line and south she heads .
> 
> ...




Here is my chart and it indicates a possible bottom of .80 I don't think we will see a bottom of .75 but anything could happen.
UP UP UP


----------



## estseon (13 July 2010)

"...once that offer is gone, you'd expect to see adi drop? would this play onto AUT also since the offer was somewhat responsible for the jump in price.. "

Angus, we've had upgraded broker reports since and reported flow from Turnbull. The broker reports seem to be in line with the Target Statement made by ADI although it seems to be more difficult to compare Longhorn to Sugarloaf because of the 2x condensate ratio. Hartleys says that Turnbull will become categorised as an oil well - all that I can say is that the permit was categorised as a gas well - we'll have to see.

So, I don't think that before and after can be compared because there is more information on fundamentals in the market. There is a more aggressive drilling programme mentioned by Hartleys.

And the global economy has survived that bit longer. Confidence is fragile but things that could have gone bad did not (though they still could). Oil inventories in the US dropped a little - just a bit of a puddle compared to usage but a twitch in the right direction for us.

There is also to be a revised reserves valuation shortly.

I'm not looking at pre-ADI-bid prices. The two things that I'm looking at are global confidence (including the Euro and oil price futures) and operational results & projections. Things have changed very rapidly since the beginning of the year and are continuing to do so.


----------



## estseon (13 July 2010)

"...I think theres plenty of holders who might be maxed out selling to take up the SPP at 8-11c cheaper then sp..."

Condog

The general market was down a little and the close in the AUT price reflected a twitch upwards in the general market. Volume in AUT shares was less than 25 x option 6 take up in the SPP.

It points to 'background noise', in my view.


----------



## nioka (13 July 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Has anyone thought about the rise Aut got when the Adi offer was put thru from Awe?
> 
> once that offer is gone, you'd expect to see adi drop? would this play onto AUT also since the offer was somewhat responsible for the jump in price..




It is my belief that the ADI /AWE business actually held AUT and EKA back. I believe that the news we have had regarding the well performance was more than enough to justify the current prices. I believe that the ADI offer held back the SP. I believe that the ADI SP would have touched 60c on the basis of recent results.

ADI holders were robbed and AUT holders held back. The difference is that we still hold AUT, have had a chance to invest further and will see the benefits as the field is developed further.


----------



## Slipperz (14 July 2010)

Morning folks!

Not doubt most will be as pleased as I am to see a nice uptrend on the dow on the back of some good earnings reports in the US overnight.

I thought I'd look for some resistance to see where we might be heading in the near future and a realisation struck me.

AUT is tracking the dow verrrry closely.













Anyhoo the dow has broken it's downtrend and next stop is resistance is 10600 and we might be game on for a bit more blue sky in the US.

Hopefully summer driving season will give the price of oil a kick up as well


----------



## estseon (14 July 2010)

Slipperz

Not at all surprised with that conclusion but thanks for the charts.

Oil is probably tracking equities quite closely as well.

The driver may be confidence (or lack of) in the economic recovery and the US is often seen as a significant cog in that machine.

Intuitively, the economic indicators in the US should flow all the way through.

Even if AUT made a step jump on good drilling/production news it might move with the US indicator waves like seaweed in the tide - it would just be at a higher figure.

Should see AUT in positive territory if the ASX follows the Dow.

Bloomberg:

Crude oil advanced to the highest level in more than two weeks in New York as U.S. equities jumped after Alcoa Inc.’s earnings topped analysts’ estimates.

Oil rose 2.9 percent amid speculation that the report by Alcoa, the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to issue second-quarter results, signaled broader economic growth. U.S. stocks gained for the sixth straight day. The International Energy Agency forecast oil demand will grow in 2011.

“We’re just tagging along with the equities market after Alcoa turned out better than expected,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The equity rally seems to be giving us some support.”

Crude for August delivery gained $2.20 to settle at $77.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level since June 28. Prices have risen 7.2 percent in the past week and 29 percent in the past year.


----------



## Agentm (14 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Yes this is where I see the lower support level. I inadvertedly posted support level of $0.75 and $0.76 when I meant to post $0.75 then $0.68. After that I see the next level of support at $0.40.
> 
> 
> Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.
> ...




thanks for your comments 

i am watching with interest how the aut share holds up myself

there are shares in the play like AZZ with plenty of hot air.. and they consistently fall below the broker reports price expectations.. azz is about .57 atm.. way below the very recent cap raising price in the .60's

there is less hot air in the aut share than others imho, but i agree that some of the hype on the oil wells in longhorn has been solely on the production side, and the commentary of how the oil wells will impact on aut in terms of costs is lacking in comment..







Slipperz said:


> Morning folks!
> 
> Not doubt most will be as pleased as I am to see a nice uptrend on the dow on the back of some good earnings reports in the US overnight.
> 
> ...




hey slipperz

i watch the volumes there closely in the US.. been an amazing turnaround.. all on vapour as usual

i saw this comment from cameron hanover a few days back. and i think its great that he is thinking the same way i am on oil..



It was caution more than anything else. We would expect to see oil prices rally slightly in response to the quarterly earnings figure released by Alcoa, later tonight. Investors are eager to buy oil futures, apparently, or at least that is what we thought we saw last week. It did not take much to reignite interest in the so‐called “carry trade,” which has nothing to do with carrying costs and everything to do with the negligible cost of borrowing money (for some large players). It is the equivalent of the Latin word (in science) for “risk appetite.” The fundamentals are what they have been for a while, now. Stocks are plentiful and near multi‐decade highs (in the case of distillate). *There is plenty of oil available right now, especially in terms of days of forward supply. If this were 10 years ago, oil prices would be trading at less than half what they are right now, possibly even a third of existing prices. **Demand has been increasing recently, but we are comparing it to last year’s extraordinarily weak demand, in the heart of the recession.*
Tomorrow, we should see traders start to look at this week’s inventory figures. All three major wire services are looking for substantial drawdowns in distillate, decent builds in distillate stocks and milder draws in gasoline stocks. We are actually looking for a build in gasoline stocks because we do not expect to see another week of strong withdrawals from primary storage so soon after July 4th.


----------



## condog (14 July 2010)

On a fundamentals perspective its hard to see any justification why AUT is over priced or likely to fall.

The Reliance deal valued Pioneer acerage at $25,000 per gross acre and $11400 per net acre.

Based on that valuation AUT is worth $279M. Today at 84c it has a market cap of $210M

And it doesnt take an einstien to see that AUT at present has what looks like the condensate sweet spot of the Eagleford. It has the two highest producing wells in the entire eagleford. Even its lower producing wells have excellent liquids ratios, making the economics of each well staggeringly better then dry gas.

It has 3 Brokers placing valuations on it. The most out of date issued several months ago is pattersons at 93c. The two issued this week by Hartleys and Euroz are $1.23 and $1.32

Oil and market sentiment has improved in the past week.

The eagle ford is absolutely red hot right now. KKR have just gone into a deal with Hilcrop to accellerate hilcrops eagleford activities. The last deal KKR did they sold out to Shell with over a billion dollars profit in just over 12 months. 

AUT is now cashed up with significant funds in the bank and about to within around 8 -10 weeks be recieving very significant income from its wells.

Hartleys states with hilcorps ne advanced program AUT will likely need a modest debt facility in H2 2011.

Theres a planned roughly 15 more wells for 2010 with 37 planned for 2011 from the Hartleys report. 

We are very close to having flow data on T2 and T3, if they are as good as T1, theres no reason why AUT wont power away from its current price.

In addition we should see on the back of the turnbull results a new reserves upgrade, which as Hartleys and Euroz say will likely casue a significant re-rating upwards. Hartleys suggest its likely to be in the ball park ofa 300% ish ugrade.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Morning folks!
> 
> 
> 
> AUT is tracking the dow verrrry closely.




Hi,

Is there a reason that you ommited the last 2 days price action on your AUT chart ? ( tuesday ,monday)

Just wondering as these 2 days clearly show the sellers in control as does todays action so far also based on open and current price and course of sales so far.

Thanks in advance and i will try and post a more up to date chart for you later this evening when i am back on the home pc instead of this wonky laptop.

Not trying to be picky ........ Just keeping it real on a technical perspective.


----------



## Slipperz (14 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Hi,
> 
> Is there a reason that you ommited the last 2 days price action on your AUT chart ? ( tuesday ,monday)
> 
> ...




Well spotted.

The reason it was a cut and paste job from the weekends chart was due to the time of posting


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Well spotted.
> 
> The reason it was a cut and paste job from the weekends chart was due to the time of posting




Thanks and no worries

Perhaps it may be a good idea for me to continue commentry and analysis on this thread also for a while, an unbiased view tends to be a bit clearer at times.


----------



## Slipperz (14 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Thanks and no worries
> 
> Perhaps it may be a good idea for me to continue commentry and analysis on this thread also for a while, an unbiased view tends to be a bit clearer at times.




Not holding any AUT yet nunthewiser?

Stick around here and we'll convert you for sure  

This weeks action has been a bit disappointing imo. I thought AUT was ready for the next leg up but seems to have stalled.

Anyways I stopped out of CTP on Monday morning and reweighted into SSN so the week is going pretty well without any help from AUT. (The plan was to have about 4 times as much but the pioneer sandstone was not forthcoming)

Hopefully when SSN has a consolidation AUT will get into gear


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Not holding any AUT yet nunthewiser?
> 
> Stick around here and we'll convert you for sure
> 
> ...





LOL i trade AUT on a regular basis.

Theres nothing to convert, i am NOT swayed by many of the overexhuberant comments placed here and ONLY trade AUT on a technical basis.

I pointed out already my thoughts on this latest action and thats twice now in THIS thread i have pointed out the Tops to the moment pretty much ... easy stock to read BECAUSE of the lower volumes traded compared to other midcap stocks out there.

Watching the action and can still find no reason to enter at this present time.

Will post when i do enter next tho but my trading of AUT is on a shorter time frame than you guys seem to be so my analysis may not help you but may help others that are looking at entering.
Hopefully might save someone a couple of bucks on there entry price from relaying an unbiased viewpoint rather than a holders view.

I am no technical guru and my views may not be correct and often i get it wrong...... just giving MY opinion on something i can see in front of me... like i said i could be wrong and happy to admit it.

Cheers.


----------



## J&M (14 July 2010)

Thanks Nun your views are most welcome 

always good to get another point of view 

I am a holder and have topped up with the share raising


----------



## stefan_invester (14 July 2010)

Hey Nun,
im a bit stuck, not sure if i should participate in the CR at 0.75, 
or if i should wait it out and mabey the sp will fall to below 0.80 cents...
just interested in your view 
cheers.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

stefan_invester said:


> Hey Nun,
> im a bit stuck, not sure if i should participate in the CR at 0.75,
> or if i should wait it out and mabey the sp will fall to below 0.80 cents...
> just interested in your view
> cheers.





I cannot advise you on how to spend your cash. At current prices the CR is at a decent discount but will it hold this level when the stock is released to the market is the question.

i have stated my ST TECHNICAL targets earlier in this thread, whether it gets there is a different matter.


some people here think its a bargain, others think it needs to correct itself quite a bit. 

Your call according to YOUR strategy and plans for your investment/trade/skim or whatever else you plan on.

i am not here to advise anything nor argue opinions, merely to voice my thoughts as they come to me also

Sorry i cannot help .


----------



## condog (14 July 2010)

* Snipets From Hartleys Report*
We have increased valuation and price target, from 102cps to 123cps.

*Background – Work Completed to Date*
Since the beginning of CY2010, Hilcorp has achieved exceptional flow rates from 2 recompleted wells and 4 newly drilled ....... Initial flow rates have averaged 4.5 million cubic feet of gas per day and 1,072 barrels of condensate per day, reducing to average 60 day rates of 3.8 million cubic feet of gas per day with 570 barrels of condensate per day.

*Possible Forward Work Program Accelerated - Again*
Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.


We expect a strong maiden reserve report later this month as well as continued successful drilling results. We rate AUT as a Buy with a 6-month price target of 123cps.

*Well Performance and Project Economics*
The potential of the field is highlighted by .....Morgan, Rancho Grande and Turnbull 1. Morgan has earned revenue (post royalty of 25%) of US$4.4m in its first two months and should payout in less than four months. Rancho will have similar economics .

The three most recent wells... have exceptional condensate ratios, averaging 400 barrels of condensate per million cubic feet of gas produced. *This has a significant effect on the economics *of the field *and is predominantly a function of location*. The condensate ratio tends to increase in a north-westerly direction, as indicated in the diagram below. This means that the Longhorn acreage potentially has better economics.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Thanks in advance and i will try and post a more up to date chart for you later this evening
> 
> Not trying to be picky ........ Just keeping it real on a technical perspective.




As promised earlier an up to date chart of AUT, The analysis from earlier still is valid and on a PERSONAL viewpoint i still see no reason for entry as yet..

Intresting that the sellers still had control today on a day when the majority of the market flew.

Watching like a hawk.


----------



## condog (14 July 2010)

Nun i think the sellers might control till the weekend, with many holders who have purchased recently able to ditch and grap with the SPP and dependign on their circumstance grap a quick 7-10c profit. Last opportunity for punters to do so is friday.(depending on thier cash situations of course)

In terms of this stock sticking to technical trends, its been basically news driven, and theres several large possible price catalist announcments pending.

T2 frac should have numbers out this week, monday at the latest, T3 will be on the back of that. Within two weeks the reserves upgrade is likely to be out and Hartleys state its likely to rise from 7% recovery to 22%. If thats the case thats a 300% reserves upgrade, which for the brokers and punters who calculate thier positions on mcap/reserves thats a monumental upgrade. We are also expecting to hear of an accelleration of wells for 2010 with 10-13 planned rather then 6. And the accellerated program for 2011, with 40-50 wells instaed of 25, of which AUT are said to be involved in approx 37.

Hartleys last comment is : expect regular upgrades.

Theres also two new wells about to spud, May Unit and Patinio which are on the TRRC site.

In relation to the pioneer Reliance deal AUT offers great value.


----------



## condog (14 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> As promised earlier an up to date chart of AUT,
> Watching like a hawk.




Nun why have you not adopted the new trend line from roughly 20th April when the old trend line broke?


----------



## nunthewiser (14 July 2010)

condog said:


> Nun why have you not adopted the new trend line from roughly 20th April when the old trend line broke?





The trend line that i have on the chart is valid to me , it maps the beginning and middle ground of the price action of the last 6 months and also maps where i expect it to rejoin in the overall picture.

Would also like to point out that this Trendline IF broken to the south would indicate to me that all bets were off and to take a backseat and wait until it found a true base before bothering to look again.

anyone can place a trendline anywhere on a chart and make it mean something to them at any given point.

That line represents my thoughts on where the overall trend line is based on the last 6 months of action.

Different time periods produce different trend lines.

All of these posts are merely my opinion and may turn out incorrect.

The market does what the market does, we can only go along for the ride, picking where to join that ride is your own personal choice.


----------



## Huitzii (15 July 2010)

Its good to see someone in here playing devils advocate (Nun)
Im expecting to see this go sideways for the rest of the week and an up trend starting on Monday...see how we go
The market will do what it wants to do


----------



## condog (15 July 2010)

Nun thats spot on, there is no perfect way to draw a trend line and virtually no one uses the same technique. Which in itself means the trendlines are infact only a rough guide also. In the ball park so to speak. 

Similarly the longer your trendline stays off the stock the more likely your trendline is incorrectly placed, or a new trend has occured. Which is why and where a sound grasp of the fundamentals comes into play. The primary reason imo the trend changed in mid April was becasue thats when Hilcorp established themselves as being able to drill and frac reliably and from that point in time they accellerated the drilling with quicker and quicker drill times.

Thats why i asked about your trendline and why you hadnt adjusted it. With 3 months off the line and a sound reason for the change its likely the new trend needs drawing as its well founded that the more time a stock touches a trendline the stronger that trendline is as an indicator.

With only 3 touches in 6 months, none during the past 3 months and having just had both a sizable decline in the market and energy prices in recent weeks, plus a discounted capital raising. My opinion would be if it was infact the right trendline, for sure the events of recent weeks would have dragged us back to it. But as you say trendlines, theres none that are perfect and they only express one persons opinion.

On the flip side, i believe the trend chaned around 20th April. I beileve the events of the recent weeks have proved the strength of the value in this stock. We had negative overall market sentiment, a big plunge in oil prces and a Capital raising on the back of it, yet still the stock performs well. To support that we have two brokers reccomending it to thier clients with valuations of $1.23 and $1.32 and saying to expect upgrades. On top of that we have a deal being done by their closest eaglford neighbour that values AUT acerage at a minimum of $279M when it has a current mcap of just $207M.  Lots of unanswered questions here about why you think its over valued, based on one trendline thats touched the stock twice.

If i was to draw it Id say we have had three clear trends. One during the first phase of development under TCEI, One under hilcorp and one which represents the 3 big forces of the last few weeks.



If i was to draw it with only one trend line id put it in a trading band as follows.


Note this is a cut and paste of my post a few days ago, the lines arent straight, but they areclose ebough to highlight the point.

But ultimately at present its news driven and in the next few weeks with the turnbull results, the two new wells being drilled, the accellerated program, the reserves upgrade, so if energy prices remain good we will hopefully see a post CR new trend, and imo at least a continuation of the yellow trendline.

Hilcrop will have 3 rigs on site by early 2011 with spud to drill completion estimated at 22days, so with them adding value at that pace we will certainly be seeing in my opinion some new trends established.

And whilst the trend is your friend , especially for short term traders, it must be remembered a trend line is one persons view and onely one piece of a much biger puzzle. But its a healthy debate to be having. And despite all this, there are not too many stocks enjoying the value AUT are adding and that can claim to have trendlines heading in the direction of AUT at present.

I guess to we are opposite ends of the spectrum on this stock at presnt, your potentially looking very short term, where as im in boots and all with CGT implications on the trades. I usually trade as well, and i see no reason to enter on a day trade or very st trading basis, but I would be watching it closely for a breakout based on its trend and fundamentals. From a medium term erspective it looks fantastice imo.


----------



## Slipperz (15 July 2010)

Good article from the Independent on the key points of the climate change bill currently before the US congress 

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/the-main-points-of-the-us-climate-bill-1974228.html

Two paragraphs worth highlighting

"The bill would set up a national system putting restrictions on carbon, abolishing cap-and-trade plans already set up by individual states such as California. But it would compensate states for any lost revenue.
Mindful of the troubled economy, the proposal puts the burden on major factories and power plants. 
The bill promises six billion dollars a year to make the US transportation system more energy efficient along with tax incentives for trucks and other heavy vehicles to shift to clean natural gas."


----------



## condog (15 July 2010)

Thanks Slipperz

Another of Interest
*Rig count remains relatively stabel accross US, with Eagleford up by 4.*
http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet.../oil-shale/eagle-ford/with-gas_rig_count.html


*Pioneer is coming down under *with a shale project and 150 jobs in victoria, anyone feel like some mud in thier eyes. http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/new...update_071410_103543/?business&local-business



*Oil found in Horn River gas play*
  By Dan Healing, Calgary Herald July 14, 2010 4:18 PM Be the first to post a comment
  The U.S. company that pioneered technology that has unlocked huge unconventional gas plays across North America is probing the B.C. Horn River Basin this summer with a different target in mind: light oil.

Toby Darden, chairman of Fort Worth, Texas-based Quicksilver Resources, said Wednesday oil has been discovered in sufficient quantity to justify further testing on its northeastern B.C. acreage.

“We’re excited about the oil shows we’ve seen. Our cores have shown significant mobile oil saturation in the rock, which means it can move and that’s important,” he said at an industry forum in Calgary.


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busine...n+River+play/3277697/story.html#ixzz0thge8Ufe

*$43 Billion in Upstream Oil & Gas Deals Announced in the Second Quarter of 2010*

 First six months bodes well for second half M&A activity, however, BP blowout and fickle gas prices could prompt additional deal flow

 PLS, Inc. ("PLS") and its international partner Derrick Petroleum Services ("Derrick") report that global merger & acquisition activity for the second quarter of 2010 reached $43.1 billion in 165 transactions as compared with first quarter 2010 volume of $47.7 billion in 157 transactions.  With $90.8 billion in 322 transactions in the first six months of 2010, global M&A activity is on pace to beat the 2009 full year total of $150.1 billion in 500 transactions and is already fast approaching the $114.7 billion in 556 deals in all of 2008.

The Eagle Ford Shale in Texas witnessed eight transactions topping $3.1 billion in value during the period.  Two JVs accounted for $1.7 billion, 54% of deal volume.  In addition to the $1.3 billion Pioneer Natural Resources/Reliance Industries JV, New York-based private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. entered into a $400 million JV in the central oil-oriented Eagle Ford with Hilcorp Energy Co.  Besides Shell's purchase of 100,000 acres for a rumored $1 billion, other Eagle Ford asset acquisitions during the quarter included Talisman's $360 million purchase of 37,000 acres from Common Resources in the gas condensate portion of the Eagle Ford.  Overall, acreage in the Eagle Ford continues to rise in value as operators adjust their business plans in the face of recent success and new competition from firms like Shell, KKR, Talisman and Reliance.
*
For perspective, the Marcellus and Eagle Ford Shales represented 88% of all unconventional transactions on a dollar volume basis and 52% of all U.S. transactions during the period.*

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...d-in-the-second-quarter-of-2010-98400044.html


----------



## condog (15 July 2010)

*ASX AUT Announcment 15th July 2010*




Mentions new well numbers as well. 8 for the AMI and 4 for the other areas exclusive to AUT for 2010. Fits in well with the Hartleys report.


----------



## Kremmen (15 July 2010)

condog said:


> *Pioneer is coming down under *with a shale project and 150 jobs in victoria, anyone feel like some mud in thier eyes. http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/new...update_071410_103543/?business&local-business




In case anyone (else) finds this confusing, there's no "down under" about it. Victoria is a city near the Eagleford shale area.


----------



## Slipperz (15 July 2010)

update on the horse trading in congress...

Greetings from Washington....

The architects behind this year's sweeping US Senate energy and climate proposal are working overtime to round up support for a slimmed-down version of their bill that would curb emissions from only the electric utility sector.

Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) had previously conceded that they would be willing to scale back their goal of an economy-wide price on carbon, and the pair is now ramping up efforts to take the lead in making such a utility-only bill a reality.

A draft proposal from the duo surfaced yesterday shortly after Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced his plans to address emissions from power plants as part of a larger energy bill later this month. Meanwhile, Kerry worked late into the evening to try to drum up support from stakeholders off the Hill.

The maneuvering comes as a number of senators are feverishly working to ensure that their priorities make the cut when Reid unveils the final package. Reid provided a rough outline yesterday of what he plans to include in the four-part package: oil spill response, energy efficiency, clean energy production and efforts to slash greenhouse gases from power plants. That leaves Reid a lot of wiggle room to pick and choose which measures he will include in the final package, which he wants to send to the floor the week of July 26.

I would be surprised to see natural gas fired power station construction decreasing in coming years


----------



## nunthewiser (15 July 2010)

Update on previous anlaysis.

Todays action was all about indesicion no major control on either behalf, Formed a "Doji" and i still have no reason to change my previous analysis and price targets at present.

There is still no indicators nor signals that show me at these prices it is worth an entry for *ME* as yet.

Tommorow is another day and will be intresting to see who grabs the reins for control of the action.

My bet is the sellers based on a close watch of trades as they were going through today ,but i could be wrong and happy to be.

No rush on this one.



p.s LOL @ condogs butchering of my previous chart...... glad that makes sense to you , i,ll stick with my own analysis.


----------



## nunthewiser (15 July 2010)

Looking back at my previous ( unbutchered) chart it seems i made a blue..... the FIB levels indicated are posted wrong , where 0% is that should read 23.6..and so on and so on down the levels........ im surprised it was not picked up and i apologise if it caused any confusion.

Next chart i post it will be rectified to show the correct numbers.

The previous support and resistance levels indicated are still valid though and that is the main basis of my analysis. The fib levels were only added as an intresting observation on where they fitted in with trendline and previous support and pivot areas.


----------



## mir (15 July 2010)

it will be interesting to see what the chart looks like when the reserves upgrade comes, as i know a lot are waiting for it , should be soon.the SPP should also be oversubscribed.


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> "i am NOT swayed by many of the overexhuberant comments "
> 
> "relaying an unbiased viewpoint rather than a holders view."
> 
> "p.s LOL @ condogs butchering of my previous chart......"




Please avoid these types of comments  as recently advised by Joe. Lets focus on the stock, the chart or the information  and its merits or lack there of.


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

Todays the last day for most to be selling and trying to grab thier allocation of discounted SPP shares. Should mean monday returns to some semblence of normality.

Obviously some shorter term traders may then look to offload upon receiving thier shares, but by then we should have price catalysts of two more Turnbull results and possibly our reserves upgrade as well as potentially a spud on May unit or patinio unit.

Lots of news to look forward to in coming weeks.

On another positive note at present the Oil futures look good with 90 days above the spot, 6 moonths above both, 1yr above all 3 and 5 year the highest at around $80ish on the charts.

With 5 year currently at $80ish the current (that can change quickly ) outlook for oil is being voted positive, by those who count.


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

extract of interest FROM
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/359...s-liquids-ngls-coal-offshore-drilling-gom.htm

_according to Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry. Porter, who built his reputation on finding safe-value investments poised to give his followers years of exceptional returns, also has a reputation as an independent thinker with a penchant for "out-of-consensus" viewpoints. He shares some of his contrarian opinions in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report._

TER: Meanwhile, in the wake of this spill, many people are talking more about alternative ways of getting oil. For instance, I've seen oil shale discussions on morning TV. How realistic is it to expect more production out of tar sands, etc.?

PS: Well, the Eagle Ford shale has a lot of condensate in it, which isn't necessarily oil, but actually in some cases is more valuable than oil because it's easier to crack it into gasoline. There's already a lot of natural gas liquid production today in various shales across the country, and I expect big increases in that.

I have an out-of-consensus view here, but my sources-all practicing oilmen in Texas who own land in the Eagle Ford and have drilled wells there themselves-tell me that they believe the Eagle Ford will be the largest single oilfield in the history of the United States. And they said oil, not natural gas. *They're talking about natural gas liquids, which are just as good as oil-or as I indicated, even better in a lot of cases.*

TER: That sounds like good news.

PS: Depending on your outlook, I'm afraid it means that natural gas prices will stay depressed for a very long time, but it's definitely going to be a big game-changer for domestic, onshore production. Just last month, Reliance Industries Ltd. (BSE:RIL), the biggest conglomerate in India, paid around $1.3 billion for 40% of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.'s (NYSEXD) Eagle Ford property. China hasn't bought anything in the Eagle Ford, but they will. I personally think they're likely to buy Petrohawk Energy Corporation (NYSE:HK). I have no evidence of that, just an instinct. *Petrohawk has some of the best properties*, but China is probably the only one willing to pay the very high price they're demanding. So that's the next deal I expect. *You're definitely going to see a lot more deals.*

TER: What stands out about Petrohawk?

PS: I think its first year's drilling campaign was in 2009, and they drilled something like 28 different holes without a single dry one. When you have no dry holes, the return on your capital from your drilling program is vastly higher. It's a whole new ballgame. It's just vastly more efficient and therefore the eventual profit margins from production will be even higher than they already are.

*In my mind, horizontal drilling and the existence of liquids in these shales is the game-changer for the energy business, and I really don't think people appreciate how big a change it's going to be or how large the production from these fields is going to be*. But there is one big hiccup in all of this.

TER: What's that?

PS: There are a lot of environmental concerns about the fracking process, and I don't think that they're going to go away. Thus, I* anticipate much tighter controls going forward on the horizontal drilling technologies that these companies have been using, which will make drilling progressively more expensive.* Right now a single well costs them about $5 million to drill, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the price increase significantly to $10 million or $15 million per well just because of the costs of using these chemicals and making sure they get cleaned up.

TER: Does this provide an investment opportunity-looking at the drilling companies as opposed to the oil producers?

PS: That's a tough question. When you can buy a drilling company at a 50% discount to the value of its rigs, it's a good buy, but drilling isn't a high-margin business, so they inevitable trade at a huge discount to book as soon as the price of the commodity falls. In my mind, that makes them really speculative for the average investor. I* think it makes more sense just to buy the companies with the best acreage in the field, and sooner or later you're going to make a lot of money. Even if it takes a long time to get all the holes drilled, the resource is there.*

*I don't think most investors appreciate that there aren't any dry holes in these fields because they use seismic technology to look before they drill. They know the exact depth of the shale and once they know they're in it, they just drill sideways.*

TER: You talked about how massive Eagle Ford is. Are other fields in the U.S. exciting much discussion?

PS: Absolutely. And they're pretty much all over the place. I think they have shale gas production now in 30 different states. The big ones are the Marcellus, Haynesville, Barnett and the Bakken. I think the difficulty is trying to produce these wells in a way that isn't very destructive to the environment, because horizontal drilling and the fracking process are very disruptive to groundwater supplies. They have to be really careful where they do this kind of drilling to avoid the risk of contaminating a large reservoir.


----------



## prgudula (16 July 2010)

Longhorn Production Update released on 16-July

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100716/pdf/31rc8ftxt4hjqy.pdf


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

prgudula said:


> Longhorn Production Update released on 16-July
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100716/pdf/31rc8ftxt4hjqy.pdf




526bbls/d condensate and 7.71mmscfe/d on a highly restricted choke is a very good result so far.  awaiting an update on T3 and reserves upgrade.


----------



## basilio (16 July 2010)

> PS: Absolutely. And they're pretty much all over the place. I think they have shale gas production now in 30 different states. The big ones are the Marcellus, Haynesville, Barnett and the Bakken. I think the difficulty is trying to produce these wells in a way that isn't very destructive to the environment, because horizontal drilling and the fracking process are very disruptive to groundwater supplies. They have to be really careful where they do this kind of drilling to avoid the risk of contaminating a large reservoir.




That is a very sobering and scary conclusion to that interview. There could be/would be very serious consequences if ground water supplies were irrevocably contaminated. At one level it could spell financial disaster for the companies doing the drilling and of course  create some havoc with communities relying on underground water. Think about irrigation or underground streams flowing into reservoirs.

With the unfolding disaster in the Gulf of Mexico one would think politicians and communities would be very careful to ensure another disaster didn't happen.


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

Longhorn is hsaping up as a magic result for AUT. So far both are only IP's but they are very good figures on "highly restricted chokes" 

Turnbull 1
893bbls/d condensate and 12 mmscfe/d on a highly restricted choke is a very good result so far. 


Turnbull 2 
526bbls/d condensate and 7.71 mmscfe/d on a highly restricted choke is a very good result so far. awaiting an update on T3 and reserves upgrade.

Given 65% of AUT interest lay in Longhorn with a post farmout interest of 25% these are absolutely fantastic results in my opinion.

AUT has 25800 gross acres in longhorn which is 6450 net acres. Longhorn is earmarked as oil and thus requires 320 acre spacing. 20 net wells to AUT to cover the leasing with most to be done in 2011, according to Hartleys.

At these sorts of rates with those liquids ratios and current prices these are very economic imo.


----------



## nunthewiser (16 July 2010)

mmmmm. and the sellers are controlling the action yet again i see even on "apparently" good news.... still early in the session for today so will continue to monitor the action for any change.

Buyer depth looking mighty shaky also with gaps all over the place at present.

Be intresting to see how much stock may get dumped when the new stock is released to market.

I wonder if the cap raising will be fully subscribed or if there will be a shortfall in these uncertain times.

*Still* no entry signals or reasons to enter for *ME* as yet but will continue to monitor and post my thoughts as they arise.


----------



## Kremmen (16 July 2010)

basilio said:


> There could be/would be very serious consequences if ground water supplies were irrevocably contaminated. At one level it could spell financial disaster for the companies doing the drilling and of course  create some havoc with communities relying on underground water. Think about irrigation or underground streams flowing into reservoirs.




That's one of the great things about the AUT area. There's bugger-all there. If the water gets contaminated in the middle of nowhere, who gives a damn? Companies can buy off the locals with bottled water and a pile of cash and it's still petty cash to the drillers and everyone's happy. I'd be worried in some of the areas in other states which are too close to areas with higher population densities and/or other industries.


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

Kremmen said:


> That's one of the great things about the AUT area. There's bugger-all there. If the water gets contaminated in the middle of nowhere, who gives a damn? Companies can buy off the locals with bottled water and a pile of cash and it's still petty cash to the drillers and everyone's happy. I'd be worried in some of the areas in other states which are too close to areas with higher population densities and/or other industries.



Its early days for the entire technology, but yes its encouraging to have AUT acerage located where it is.



nunthewiser said:


> mmmmm. and the sellers are controlling the action yet again i see even on "apparently" good news.... still early in the session for today so will continue to monitor the action for any change.
> 
> Buyer depth looking mighty shaky also with gaps all over the place at present..



Not sure what your looking at for depth, its been pretty much like this all day.



right now its green, so im not sure how you arrive at that conclusion, although for me and plenty of others i really dont care wh controls it today or tommorrow, we are looking at the underlying value beeing further established by terrific announcments like todays.



nunthewiser said:


> I wonder if the cap raising will be fully subscribed or if there will be a shortfall in these uncertain times.



The CR was way over subscribed, i think you mean the SPP. Rumour has it its way over subscribed as well, although i dont know how or where they found that out, or if it has any semblence of truth.

In my opinion todays announcment is another derisking of the entire project. It confirms the quality of the entire acerage. AUT now have 8 from 8 exxtremely encouraging well locations, all with high liquids content. 

Sure as a very short term trader, Nun and a few others may see no entry signs and thats fine, but looking at it from a longer term investment based on fundamentals, this de-risks the play further and in particular the very substantial and higher interest Longhorn acerage, leaving only questions about Ipenema.

another substantial move towards a reserves upgrade. Im guessing Ipenema willl allow the calculation for reserves upgrade in around 3-4 weesk from now.


----------



## happytown (16 July 2010)

condog said:


> ...
> 
> The CR was way over subscribed, i think you mean the SPP. *Rumour has it its way over subscribed as well, although i dont know how or where they found that out, or if it has any semblence of truth*.
> 
> ...




feel free to acquaint yourself with the forum position on the posting of unverified/unattributed rumours on asf, no matter how they may be couched



Joe Blow said:


> Posting unverified rumours on ASF is simply not on.
> 
> If you are not prepared to identify your source or confirm a rumour with the company involved then please do not post it on the forums. Just for the record, anonymous forum chatter and unidentified 'friends' or 'associates' do not qualify as a legitimate source.
> 
> Some rumours, of course, do turn out to be accurate but many are simply made up and used to ramp stocks up or down. It is this aspect that troubles me and is the reason I do not want them posted here at ASF.




further



Joe Blow said:


> Perhaps the word 'unverified' was a poor choice.
> 
> What I mean, is that if people are going to post a rumour on ASF, it has to be attributable to someone and they have to be able to demonstrate that with a link or a reference to a published source.
> 
> Personally, I would prefer that people stuck solely to verified information but I understand that is a little unrealistic.




the no unverified/unattributed rumour posting thread can be found at

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5917


----------



## eopiela (16 July 2010)

Kremmen said:


> That's one of the great things about the AUT area. There's bugger-all there. If the water gets contaminated in the middle of nowhere, who gives a damn? Companies can buy off the locals with bottled water and a pile of cash and it's still petty cash to the drillers and everyone's happy. I'd be worried in some of the areas in other states which are too close to areas with higher population densities and/or other industries.




I "give a damn."  I'm a landowner in the AUT acreage (e.g. both the surface and mineral interest for half of the Morgan well unit, a good deal of the Kowalik well unit, and almost all of the Rancho Grande well unit) in Karnes County, and you are mistaken if you think I can be bought off "with bottled water and a pile of cash."  Moreover, I'm in a political position to really make the operator's life very difficult from a state regulatory perspective if they happen to negligently contaminate my groundwater.  Just because the area is relatively more sparsely populated compared to the Barnett Shale and other areas, doesn't mean the operators are absolved from liability if they mess up, it just means there's less plaintiffs in the coming lawsuit sharing in the recovery.  I will note that none of the leases in effect on the AUT acreage have limits on lessee liability for environmental damage, and new leases/renewals I draft for landowners in the Eagleford acreage have the following clause, "Lessee shall take all reasonable and necessary steps to protect Lessor’s wells from contamination, and/or loss of quality, or quantity of ground water under Lessor’s land due to Lessee’s operations."  This creates a contractual liability for the operator to be responsible; you contaminate my groundwater, you lose your lease.  Venue for any disputes under the leases are all in the local courts.  Therefore, please refrain from smug comments like that quoted above.  I'm happy a lot of people on here are about to make a lot of money on this play (as a landowner I hope to as well), and I appreciate the insight some of this discussion has given me about the play--however this is a serious issue; one which is just beginning to come to light in some of the other areas where shale fracturing has been employed, and deserves your research, because the door is rapidly closing on shoddy operators. I have some concerns regarding casing integrity after what happened on the initial Kowalik frac job that went awry, and you should too as an investor.  Since Hilcorp moved in the operation has been much more professional, but that doesn't mean that investors should dismiss this as a concern--both the US Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency are seriously considering federal regulation (google Barnett Shale Hearing), and while Texas has refrained thus far, we can change that if necessary.


----------



## Joe Blow (16 July 2010)

I would just like to remind everyone of the rules when it comes to posting in stock threads:


Do not post any rumours unless they have already appeared in the mainstream print or broadcast media. A reference must be supplied.
If you make an assertion (e.g. post a price target or call a stock a "dog") you must also provide reasons to support your point of view.
Never advise others to buy, sell or hold a particular stock. Present your analysis by all means, but leave the financial advice to licensed financial advisers.
No personal attacks or insults. Stick to discussing the facts and analysis. Treat all other thread participants with respect at all times even if you disagree with them.
Please report any post that contravenes the above guidelines.
Relax. If you feel yourself getting annoyed by someone's posts and they're not in violation of the above rules, take a deep breath, step away from the PC and go outside and take a break! Keep it all in perspective.


----------



## condog (16 July 2010)

All this talk about AUT falling over is completely unfounded. LAcks any foundation and facts.

Its just had almost 20 days of consolidation while the market took a turn for the worse. Its withstood the selling inspired by an 8-10c discounted SPP. 

Its up for the day, turned back up for the 5 days, up for the month and up for the 3, 6 and 12 months.

Its got 8 from 8 wells flowing this year with fantastic rates. 

Its got an accellerated program and the cash to proceed with it.

Its got one of the best operators in the entire Eagleford.

Its got the two best wells in the enetire eagleford.

Its latest two wells on turnbull are flowing on highly restricted chokes above unrestricted rate by most its neighbours. 

Theres been a lot of damage done is this thread this week that is completely and utterly unfounded.

Heres the graphs as proof.

Closed up 1.5c for the day

5 Day Graph has turned up on the back of a successful CR and most likely positive SPP result.



1month graph up



3 month graph up



1 year graph up



In the last month it has drilled and fracced 3 wells, in the next month its drilling and fraccing approx 2 wells and will recieve a reserve upgrade according to the Hartleys report of around 300%.

Every new well delivers a de-risking as it delivers another income source , a rise in NPV and justifies the investment on that well. 

The facts and figures in support of this stock are amazing.

The period of consolidation we have just had is excellent, brining in a lot of new holders and traders at a much higher level.

Again key risks are political intervention in the fraccing process, the oil price and the risk of global markets.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 July 2010)

If one checks todays course of sales they will see todays close was made on minisicule volumes ( around 7k ) which bumped up the price and % .* I* for one pay no creedence to this action as it was obviously a manufactured close in my book but hey thats* MY* book and not to be confused with current holders outlook on this stock.

*PERSONALLY* i still see *NO*reason to enter yet as it neither has shown *ANY* strength to bust through or attempt to bust through previous resistance levels and *maybe* being currently propped up for sellers to have a low volume market in which to leak their stock into without causing any major hiccups ( easy to do if one knows how to play the depth shuffle and games).

However i could be wrong also and my targets given previously may not be reached , however based on *MY* observations of the action on this stock i have no reason to doubt my analysis as yet.

Its quite intresting watching the  *SELF PERCEIVED *pump and dump sales throughout the day on this stock but maybe i might be reading it wrong 

I still cannot find a reason to enter at current prices and thats my view until the supply stops feeding it at these levels


----------



## nunthewiser (17 July 2010)

Just using a chart previously supplied, i would like to point out the variations in trendlines available to others looking at other time frames.The dark blue line indicates the 1 year trend as the actual original chart producer drew up, i have merely extended that line to be up to date.

the yellow lines indicate previous support and resistance.

the light blue line indicates MAJOR resistance that as so far cannot be broken.

The red line indicates where i feel the true trend is ( please forgive it being bent at the beginning)



sorry if my chart is a little bit confusing but i will try and use my own one next time .


----------



## estseon (17 July 2010)

eopiela

I don't think that many take the matter lightly.

I was under the impression that TRRC enforced strict rules requiring casing to below the aquifers.

Kowalik (1) was drilled using under-pressured mud and slotted liner was used. The thought at the time, shared with CoP drilling on Live Oak (TCEI is a partner in that operation), was that the formation was sufficiently fractured to produce commercial flows without the need to fracture stimulate. The well initially flowed commercially from the bottom end of it but then it was given a chemical wash and it never quite recovered. Hilcorp tried to remove the slotted liner but, not surprisingly, was unable to drag it out. That well was not completed for fracture stimulation.

Kennedy had problems with part of its casing which meant that the re-stimulation could not be completed but that well had been fracture stimulated about 6 times before and one of the earlier attempts (not by Hilcorp) had to be aborted because of extraordinarily high pumping pressures. That was possibly when the casing was damaged.

I don't think that anybody has been cutting corners - it's just that it is a challenging formation and Hilcorp has made it look disarmingly simple to drill and to complete.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> the light blue line indicates MAJOR resistance that as so far cannot be broken.



I actually like the look of this set up and would take a stab at buying it within that triangle waiting for the beakout. Sell if it broke the lower line. I'd prefer to wait till it broke up, but it's in a clear uptrend, obviously.


----------



## condog (17 July 2010)

The 12 month graph is below with rationale attached as to some of the changes in patterns.




AUT until April 2010 has operated on very low volumes and been very tightly held. After Hilcorp took over they have set a crracking pace with multiple successful wells back to back at shorter and shorter times. 

In addition the results from each well have basically got better and beetter, culminating in Rancho and Morgan the two best wells in the entire Eagleford Shale to date, then Turnbulls affirming the high quality liquids in the north west longhorn acerage which makes up 65% of the play for AUT and where they hold a 25% interest.

Applying some sort of rational and reasoning its easy to see why the trend changed.

Then at point D, the overall market took a major tumble on fears of a US tumble and possible GFC2. Even during that time AUT showed its strength.
Only dropping around 9%.  

Speculation began about the need for a CR which eventuated at point E, closely followed by a 10c discounted SPP @ 75c.

Despite all this AUt has held its own. Now showing clear signs of sp growth returning. Undoubtably some recipients of Cr or SPP shares will chose to sell in the shorter term and there will be added selling pressure. 

However there is no evidence to suggest the current sp is over valued.

When comparred to all the recent M & A activity in the Eagleford from the last 4 months AUT is significantly under valued at 84c. 

On its charts it has had a long period of consolidation with massive volumes establishing a signiificant new resistance level around the 78-84c level. 

Using a trendline that takes into account reasons rather then nothing but a simple one line with no rational, its actually under valued and sitting below the trendline. 

AUT is up for the close, up for the last part of the week, up for the mont, up for the 3 months, up for the 6 months. 

The alternative argument being put forward carries no evidence to suggest its true or warrented. The sellers are not in control of the day, the 5 days, the month, the 3 months, the 6 months or the 12 months. Sure they have been active as one would expect on the back of both a CR and SPP. The buyyers still have 150% more then the sellers.

The week following the issue of the new shares will of course have more activity. But for those sitting on the sidelines hoping to pick up cheap shares, theres also the risk of the reserves upgrade which is due in July. My thoughts are they will wait for IP's on the Ipenema acerage, but if its scheduled in and booked inthey could doi it hust using the existing wells.

hartleys project a 300% upgrade from a figure that was calaculated on a 7% recovery basis to a figure of 22% recovery. 

Similarly Hartleys says to expect regualr upgrades in thier price on the back of the amazing results coming out from hilcorp.

Already we have seen one more spectacular flow from Turnbull 2 since hartleys and Euroz released thier figures. Next week we are likely to get IP's on T3 and soon after Kowalick plus the Reserves upgrade.

I personally dont buy any of this doom and gloom being cast upon this stock. I think its good to question people but provide evidence and reasons, and whilst i find this debate frustrating it is healthy.

 I have made a lot of money on the share market, I have never seen a stock with better immediate potential then AUT right now , but given that there are still risks associated with the drilling, fraccing, political, environemental, overall market and energy prices, so seek expert advice and DYOR.

I just hope the doom and gloom Nun is presenting doesnt cost people a lot of money, similarly the optimism i presnt. They are both only opinions. However i do feel my case is supproted by significantly more reasons and evidence. In my opinion the counter argument is reliant on one graph and one trendline, its not taking anything else into consideration. Despite counter arguing for over three pages we are yet to see any evidence from the doom and gllom side to see why he thinks his case is correct other then a few lines with no reasoning or evidence.

I have however sensed a significant softening in his stance, which has possibly been brought about by the three days of renewed buying pressure being applied to AUT.

Make your own decisions, seek expert advice, its your money.  AUT is a bloody great stock in an incredible growth pahse, with a brilliant operator, in the hottest shale play in the world right now, with the best two wells in that play, possibly the best 4 if Turnbulls where allowed to flow unrestricted. Theres not much wrong with it when evidence and reasons are used.

I take absolutely no objection to Nun presenting his graphs for a completely different timeframe, but if he and others are going to come in here and make amazing claims such as AUt is about to fall out of the sky to 40c like they did a few days ago it needs to be backed up by evidence, not a simple trend line that has no consideration for the development that has occurred. 

So far it has not had any evidence and is completely and catogorically misleading unfounded and untrue. Reckless in fact.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 July 2010)

kennas said:


> I actually like the look of this set up and would take a stab at buying it within that triangle waiting for the beakout. Sell if it broke the lower line. I'd prefer to wait till it broke up, but it's in a clear uptrend, obviously.





cheers Kennas and tottally agree on the setup , i PERSONALLY  find that entry at the top of this triangle is too much of a high risk to reward area as in the % loss on natural stopout points is of too high a nature.

i PERSONALLY  am happy to wait and see if it breaks first.


----------



## Slipperz (17 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> cheers Kennas and tottally agree on the setup , i PERSONALLY  find that entry at the top of this triangle is too much of a high risk to reward area as in the % loss on natural stopout points is of too high a nature.
> 
> i PERSONALLY  am happy to wait and see if it breaks first.




Monday will be a keytest after the dow's breakdown yesterday.

Although from a technical perspective this week has ended on a positive note imho.






This week saw us move sideways from the strong 8 day uptrend, retrace a little and then two good indicators a doji followed by a green candle.

The trading range  has now widened a little with resistance at 89 cents minor support at 82 cents and major support at 74 cents.


----------



## nioka (17 July 2010)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record I'll say again " Charts represent the past".To me, using charts is an effort to have hindsight and a crystal ball. 

With AUT the past will be completely different to the future. Each movement on the chart can be explained by an event in the past, events that may or may not be repeated. The past is influenced by an operating partner that has been replaced with Hillcorp. The difference is a case of chalk and cheese. The recent past has been influenced by AWE and their opportunistic bid for ADI. They are now out of the way. The extra leases that AUT has that other partners have not had any interest in have only recently been drilled. So far this drilling appears successful but the charts are only just starting to be influenced by that drilling.

AUT is a stock that should be valued on fundamentals alone. The fundamentals are improving day by day and I see no reason why they will not continue to trend higher and higher. Personally I do not consider them a stock to trade but rather a stock in which to invest either short term or long term and that is how I have approached AUT.


----------



## condog (17 July 2010)

nioka said:


> At the risk of sounding like a broken record I'll say again " Charts represent the past".To me, using charts is an effort to have hindsight and a crystal ball.
> 
> With AUT the past will be completely different to the future. Each movement on the chart can be explained by an event in the past, events that may or may not be repeated. The past is influenced by an operating partner that has been replaced with Hillcorp. The difference is a case of chalk and cheese. The recent past has been influenced by AWE and their opportunistic bid for ADI. They are now out of the way. The extra leases that AUT has that other partners have not had any interest in have only recently been drilled. So far this drilling appears successful but the charts are only just starting to be influenced by that drilling.
> 
> AUT is a stock that should be valued on fundamentals alone. The fundamentals are improving day by day and I see no reason why they will not continue to trend higher and higher. Personally I do not consider them a stock to trade but rather a stock in which to invest either short term or long term and that is how I have approached AUT.




Here here. Finaly some  commonsense in this thread from someone who actually knows the stock. Where on earth have you guys been hiding. esteon and MIR are mia at present.  Thertes morte to a stock then a vacant trendline.  Trendlines and resistance linjes are merely a guide. A piece of the puzzle so to speak.

Yes - AUT has till now very much been a fundamental news driven stock. Its tightly held and in the interim will certainly other then a few traders whove been attracted remain so.


----------



## condog (17 July 2010)

*Second Quarter Oil & Gas Deals Top $42 Billion as Companies Pile into Shale Gas*

The pace of M&A activity in the global E&P sector sustained the momentum of the first quarter with $42 billion of E&P deals announced in the second quarter of 2010.


In total $12 billion worth of US shale gas deals were announced which represented over one quarter of global E&P deals.

From
http://www.i-newswire.com/second-quarter-oil-gas-deals-top/48919


----------



## mir (18 July 2010)

condog
definitely not MIA , talking about fundamentals to the chart gurus is pointless , i don't follow charts but i can see on Monday if AUT drops they will claim their charts were correct (even though the dow got smashed).i've followed AUT from day 1 & have never been more confident ,nioka explained it very well .the way i see it there is a lot of institutional interest & there will be a lot  more after the reserves upgrade.operationally you couldn't ask for more than hilcorp & our acres are probably the best in the eagleford 
"Texas Crude – Insights into Quality of AUT Acreage
We spent time with one of the geologists credited with the discovery of the Eagle Ford, who works for Texas Crude, one of AUT’s partners. The quality of the acreage was confirmed by comparative well data showing best initial production in the play and best 30 day flow rates for both oil and gas equivalent, all of which occurred within the area in which AUT has an interest.
We expect a strong maiden reserve report later this month as well as continued successful drilling results"  the majors are happy with less .
i almost forgot we now have enough cash to keep up with hilcorps forward drilling program & i can't see any dry wells.


----------



## condog (18 July 2010)

Thanks MIR, good to have you back.

Slipperz nice to see som logical technicals on here at last. 

That major resistance at 74 has been present for a week or two now since the 75c SPP was announced and we rebounded above it.

Im still firmly with Nokia that we are fundamentals and news driven at present. But for the technical traders , thats a far more accurate and realistic perspective then those recently being purported. With a nice flag formation and fundamentals in place for a positive breakout of the flag pattern.


----------



## Slipperz (18 July 2010)

condog said:


> Thanks MIR, good to have you back.
> 
> Slipperz nice to see som logical technicals on here at last.
> 
> ...




I like to use the charts as a fair indication of where we might be heading in tandem with looking at the fundamentals.

I got onboard in the mid 40's back in April assuming the derisking of the acreages by Hillcorp would bring us some rewards.

It's not hard to see the effect some of the news has had on the upwards momentum of AUT but overall we are tracking in a nice strong uptrend.

I got out a couple of days beofre the CR and have been back in for all of 7 trading sessions, and will stay in now for the longterm as I consider AUT to be more of an investment than a trading stock at this stage.

I don't think we are likely to test the lower line of support unless something pretty drastic occurs, like a series of dusters for example or a dramatic worsening of the economic outlook for the US. ( or both)

IMHO we are more than likely to continue in this strong uptrend with spikes to the upside as the reserves are upgraded, the drilling news comes in and our cash position strengthens with every quarter.


----------



## skivvy (18 July 2010)

I too agree with Slipperz, the long term trend is still intact.  There has been a consolidation period, a possible cup formation over the last 6-7 weeks (albeit a little messy).  As a technical trader, the key points are weak support at 82c and resistance at 88c.  If support is breached at 82c then it may test the recent low at around 75c. 
I have always struggled with knowing when to enter a stock which has trended up for such a long time.  This is one thing I need to learn to understand as I continue on the journey.  Charts can only tell you so much and the best thing you can do is use them as a guide. 
I have missed the action in this stock to date and am looking to enter as the fundamentals look good.  I am waiting to see which level is reached first and will trade accordingly.  Look forward to any comments/guidance......

I have found the comments in this thread very interesting and look forward to more insight to the fundamentals of the shale oil play which I know very little about, but am learning thanks to this thread.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2010)

While AUT is in a medium term strong uptrend, you can't ignore the overall market position, which is looking increasingly bearish. Very rarely does anything go against the overall market trend. Once negativity and panick sets in, nothing is saved. I suppose if you are a very long term holder and have faith in the fundamentals, then you just ignore the charts completely. However, if you're in that position, you can't just pick and choose chart analysis when it suites your bullish position. If (when imo) the market falls over completely again, then AUT will likely follow. For long term believers in the sector and this stock, then a great opportunity to buy again perhaps. For those intent on saving capital, keep stops in place.


----------



## Slipperz (18 July 2010)

Puts our production figures in a pretty good light.

http://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/news/clayton-williams-provides-update-on-eagle-ford-sha.shtml


----------



## jancha (18 July 2010)

kennas said:


> While AUT is in a medium term strong uptrend, you can't ignore the overall market position, which is looking increasingly bearish. Very rarely does anything go against the overall market trend. Once negativity and panick sets in, nothing is saved. I suppose if you are a very long term holder and have faith in the fundamentals, then you just ignore the charts completely. However, if you're in that position, you can't just pick and choose chart analysis when it suites your bullish position. If (when imo) the market falls over completely again, then AUT will likely follow. For long term believers in the sector and this stock, then a great opportunity to buy again perhaps. For those intent on saving capital, keep stops in place.





Imo the driving force behind AUT is the continual positive news and results it receives. 
The risk is as soon has it has a duster or even no positive news for any lengthy period it would see the sp fall significately and under present market conditions that wouldn't take much so providing AUT dont hit a duster & continue to receive positive news they should continue to hold fairly well regardless.
My only other concern is with all the extra acres comes extra expenses.
( More dilutions CRs ect) 
That to me could be where AUT may become unstuck.
 A lot of acres to manage.


----------



## condog (18 July 2010)

jancha said:


> Imo the driving force behind AUT is the continual positive news and results it receives.
> The risk is as soon has it has a duster or even no positive news for any lengthy period it would see the sp fall significately and under present market conditions that wouldn't take much so providing AUT dont hit a duster & continue to receive positive news they should continue to hold fairly well regardless.
> My only other concern is with all the extra acres comes extra expenses.
> ( More dilutions CRs ect)
> ...




Jancha your concerns about a duster would certainly be a speedbump or hicup, but i dont think it would derail the stock significantly. 

Hartleys have run the numbers on the new hilcorp program and see the need for a possible debt facility in H2 2011. On the back of a current one its a bit premature to let CR worry us imo, as the value that will be added betweeen now and H2 2011 should imo be immense. At around $14-18M per well dependent on costs / prices and flows. With 10-13 wells yet for 2010 then 37 in 2011, so at leasat around 28 wells prior to H2 2011, we are talking about a NPV of approx 2 tot 2.5  times the current mcap prior to any further need for capital or debt. Plus cash revenues.

All looks good to me , except the 266 DJIA fall.


----------



## estseon (18 July 2010)

kennas,

I have concerns about the fragility of confidence in the markets. That is  because of the apparent global reliance on the US recovery to drive global recovery and because of reliance on the Euroland fix of the sovereign debt problems in Greece and Spain. It doesn't actually make me feel any more comfortable that Germany's motive in assisting these countries is that its own export market has boomed as a result of their extravagances. However, you have seen bearish signals and I wondered whether you could point to other things that should be watched closely.

As a chartist, do you see any pattern of nervousness on Fridays? It is a serious question because bank failures are often announced on Mondays after weekends spent trying to avert failure whilst the markets are closed.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2010)

estseon said:


> kennas,
> 
> I have concerns about the fragility of confidence in the markets. That is  because of the apparent global reliance on the US recovery to drive global recovery and because of reliance on the Euroland fix of the sovereign debt problems in Greece and Spain. It doesn't actually make me feel any more comfortable that Germany's motive in assisting these countries is that its own export market has boomed as a result of their extravagances. However, you have seen bearish signals and I wondered whether you could point to other things that should be watched closely.
> 
> As a chartist, do you see any pattern of nervousness on Fridays? It is a serious question because bank failures are often announced on Mondays after weekends spent trying to avert failure whilst the markets are closed.



estseon, My bearishness on the XAO is seen in the 4 year non algo chart which has strong resistance across 5000 and now 4500. 4000 support very possible to the downside with the overhead resistance set.

Must say though, my bearishness is not in the charts. It's the the worlds inability to find a long term solution to the disaster we have created. Cheap money, low rates, bs lending practices, encouraging people to get in to debt, and bebt, and debt ...... unsustainable. 

Having said that, AUT has defied gravity the past year and steamed ahead. By all accounts here, it's no longer a 'multi bagger' as it has already made all the easy gains. 10c to 85c is obvioulsy amazing stuff. 85c to $1.20 (Hartleys and Euroz target) is very good, but probably doesn't require the ferver presented in some of the posting here. Multi bagger potential has long gone imo, but could produce some good gains on a one stock basis if all goes to expectations.


----------



## condog (18 July 2010)

Kennas it is wise to be cautious of the ords at present.

AUt has and will most likely to continue to defy gravity to a certain extent and run its on race, influenced by sentiment, rather then controlled by sentiment.

AUt has defied gravity because it has added substantial assets to its books and proved it can recover a substantial amount of its proven reserves in an economic way.

Yes easy gains have been made, and if you look back in the posts, you will see it was predicted accurately by several of us here. Right now looking forward there are still substantial price catalysts on offer.

Hartleys projects a reserves upgrade of 300%

Wells at end of 2010 will likely be double those projected and 2011 wells are likely to be double those projected.

So there is still potential for multibaggers even at 84c, particularly for those with a longer term focus.

Consider this, if they successfully frac Kowalick and 10-13 more wells in 2010 and 37 wells with 20% interest to AUt in 2011. What will be the value of AUT.

Also what will be the value if the reserves are upgraded by 300% in July or August 2010 as suggested by Hartleys to those calculating prices based on reserves rather then cash flow projections.

What will be the value if in July 2011 or Dec 2011 with approximately 50+ wells with approx 20%interest are flowing to sales with another 75 or so planned for 2012.

right now AUT still trades at a roughly 40% discount to the M & A activity that is occuring all around it. 

I cant give advice or make reccomendations, but assuming no takeover and no plummet in oil prices, I wouldnt be saying its not a multibagger. 

210M for the mcap of these assets and its forward cash flows is absolute peanuts.

When i entered this stock i copped a lot of pressure of certain individuals for speaking about its multibag potential, yet in that time it has gone from low 20's to 88c. Right now i see just as much potential and certainly less risk then i saw at 26c. Perhaps the pace will not be as frantic, but imo the likelihood is similar if not better.

This certainly stems on continuing to attain good results, with solid oil prices and accident free.

This is not advice implied or direct. It is merely an opinion of mine. Seek expert advice , do your own research and definitely do not act on this post or any of my posts. They are all opinion.

Right now its 39c below one analyst valuation and 48c below the other. Those are most likely 6 month targets looking at dec 2010, although Hartleys does call it both a valuation and a target.

Thats with 10-13 more wells predicted for 2010. If they then drill 2011 up to 37 wells for AUT, thats a increase from roughly 18 wells to roughly 55 wells at end of 2011. If the average of Hartleys and Euroz is an end of 2010 target of 1.28, then at end of 2011 its likely to be 55/18*1.28 = $3.91

$3.91 over current sp = 465% increase from todays price. This is hypothetical based on Hartleys figures and Euroz figures and projections. Seek advice and do not act on this. 

But Kennas this does highlight the realistic potential of this stock as still a multibagger, dependent on timelines, flows and oil prices.

Even if they turned around and did a CR, SPP, or debt facility in H2 2011, for $40 to $60M, at these prices its going to add value rather then destroy value if it means they can secure more prime acerage or drill faster.


----------



## Agentm (18 July 2010)

nice posts kennas and nun

totally agree on all being posted

the volumes at 10% above the cap raising speak for themselves, plenty of shares to be turned out atm.. nice share to punt a few day trading dollars into,   a cent here or a cent here,, but all the ones buying into the broker excitement that aut will create with upcoming reserves upgrades will be greatly appreciated by the sophisticated investors, but i agree with kennas that its not likely to run into a multibagger from here..

exit strategies are the key on this share at this point in time, how to play it and who can exit with their volumes, and at what price level..

with the massive disappointment of t2, i hope t3 is a salvage for them.. i am sure they will at least shut in the well this time and not double up the error, but great to see that any flow has come from t2 so far.. that wasnt expected by me.. miracles can happen... lol.. but it demonstrates what level of you can mess up and still turn over a few dollars back from the well, how it holds on and how long it will take to pay back what the declines will be for the choked back wells from now on will be interesting to watch.  once they start releasing pressures on the well head and you can actually make sense of the announcements, then maybe i will dip my toes, but i wont be running blind on and throwing cash into a share that wont reveal how good or bad a well really is going.. in my experience, when things are not being said its usually to hide something... 

lots of big holders with huge share exposures are in the mix, and many will be thinking hard on taking profit.

but if you look at the volumes going out .. the sophisticated are eagerly taking what they can get and its where the action is if you want to get in and believe any upside potential will be attained..

happily waiting on the sidelines and good luck to all investors and sellers alike


----------



## nioka (18 July 2010)

Agent, have you forgotten the sound of the elephant stampede. The AUT  SP is around the same value that it was at the time that an elephants picture was posted on these threads by a contributor that had great faith in the Sugarloaf play. 

I've spent some time recently going over old posts and there sure is a lot of them. Some I found very interesting in retrospect. I fail to understand why things have changed so dramatically for some contributors sentiment since the AWE bid for ADI while at the same time the good results keep coming. I am more enthuastic at this point of time than I have been at any other time in my association with the stock. 

I remain disappointed with the rapid capitulation by the ADI directors (we was robbed) but I suggest it will be a different case with AUT. I can still hear the elephants. I can see that AUT will be cash flow positive in short time and earning considerable surplus funds. I'm happy to hold and still accumulating.


----------



## condog (18 July 2010)

On the evidence being put forward by both Hartleys and Euroz it looks potentially to be a 3-4 bagger by mid to end of 2011. Oil price sensitive of course.

Agent im guessing you mean for the instos from thier CR and the SPP recipients that want to trade. There should be some additional turnover as per post any CR and SPP imo.

T2 hardly dissapointing imo, very high liquids ratio, great flows on a "highly restricted" choke. Pioneer are also restricting chokes at present to test for lower declines. It just seems that early on in the field development and technology curve they are all a bit unsure as to the exact best practice in terms of flows v declines. Hartleys mentioned the fact T2 and T3 had fraccing communications was apparent from the natural fracing in that region and this was a potential big positive for longevity of flows in the Longhorn acerage. This was apparnetly the words of the hilcorp geologist they toured with.

In terms of T3 are you saying they have an unnanounced problem or are you referring to the communication between the two wells.

With the Cr so heavily oversubscribed its likely some insto's will be lining up to get thier piece post CR. It certainly provides a buying opportunity  tommorrow if the DJIA fall puts the fear back in town.


----------



## Agentm (18 July 2010)

nioka said:


> Agent, have you forgotten the sound of the elephant stampede. The AUT  SP is around the same value that it was at the time that an elephants picture was posted on these threads by a contributor that had great faith in the Sugarloaf play.
> 
> I've spent some time recently going over old posts and there sure is a lot of them. Some I found very interesting in retrospect. I fail to understand why things have changed so dramatically for some contributors sentiment since the AWE bid for ADI while at the same time the good results keep coming. I am more enthuastic at this point of time than I have been at any other time in my association with the stock.
> 
> I remain disappointed with the rapid capitulation by the ADI directors (we was robbed) but I suggest it will be a different case with AUT. I can still hear the elephants. I can see that AUT will be cash flow positive in short time and earning considerable surplus funds. I'm happy to hold and still accumulating.




adi was at about .23 b4 the awe  bid of .40.. 

as you are well aware, the .42 final bid was the best one could get.. awe had it in the bag so to speak in the absence of a second bidder.. and we saw that only eka went close to the adi value with awe buying at .20... aut has not gone to the $1.10 region it should be when adi is at .42..

it seems to be sitting in the .80 region and has not transcended further for some months, with nothing holding it back from at least pegging up to the adi price.. so whats holding aut back??


imho adi would be  in the  mid .30's atm.. maybe creeping up a little.. if no awe bid was on the table

my sentiment on aut was buy from .40 to .88  which i did, and then i sold..

i waited for the cap raising, that was so obviously needed, and despite mentioning it and being berated for doing so, i am certain the sophisticated shares, some 46 million shares,  need to be sold into the news ahead.. so its a busy time for the brokers to spruik it up their unsuspecting subscribers, and then i guess its up to the market to determine where it all ends post the exit of .75 crowd..

after that then i think the share will settle into some pattern thats understandable.. currently its been sitting in .80 region for a long time.. i am like nun, waiting for the signals to come..

but you have to weigh in the eka show is just starting and theres a chance of eka and aut merging or awe buying eka to firstly deal with also in the near term.

also on my mind is oil in the US, and the oil prices are not driven by fundamentals, but rather by funds..

as you know, i pushed the jvp hard on disclosure, and i am not keen on any oil share that is not disclosing  critical well data that will help all understand how bad or good it is.. t2 was one heck of a mess, and i was impressed they got it to flow, but it sure needed a very very tight choke to get it to flow, but where it all ends up is yet to be determined, i am watching closely on that front.. but for aut it will be a costly mistake for them as the return on the well, the break even really is now a long long way into the future. if at all, but its up to how the declines go.  and i am not sure how to read the t3 well now.. but i have my concerns. 

as i say, all the best to the holders and you have to say the sellers are doing brilliantly..


----------



## Slipperz (19 July 2010)

Who knows.

This article from the Australian might spruik up a few bargain buyers this morning?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/junior-explorers-attract-interest-with-us-drill-stories/story-e6frg9ex-1225893643800


----------



## nulla nulla (19 July 2010)

kennas said:


> By all accounts here, it's no longer a 'multi bagger' as it has already made all the easy gains. 10c to 85c is obvioulsy amazing stuff. 85c to $1.20 (Hartleys and Euroz target) is very good, but probably doesn't require the ferver presented in some of the posting here.




Cutting through the ferver and looking objectively at the FA/TA. The current assessment of this share is that it still has to break through the resistance level it is headbutting or it is likely to be overwhelmed by the global fiscal situation and fall back to lower support levels. 
Good news and daily upbeat updates can only carry it so far. Eventually the market has to see cost effective production and sales on a scale that indicates a scale of return on investment that supports the share price.


----------



## condog (19 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> adi was at about .23 b4 the awe  bid of .40..
> 
> as you are well aware, the .42 final bid was the best one could get.. awe had it in the bag so to speak in the absence of a second bidder.. and we saw that only eka went close to the adi value with awe buying at .20... aut has not gone to the $1.10 region it should be when adi is at .42..
> 
> ...



Yep thats fine



Agentm said:


> i waited for the cap raising, that was so obviously needed, and despite mentioning it and being berated for doing so,



 Rubbish, i disagreed with you i didnt berate you. I was wrong and im man enough to admit it. If i offended you i apologise, im not here to offend. But the intenations of human speech are unavailable on the keyboard to adjust tone and perception by the reciever.

Im more concerned why you have changed your perspective so dramatically with no apparent reason. The quotes below highlight some dramatic and wild changes.



Agentm said:


> i am certain the sophisticated shares, some 46 million shares,  need to be sold into the news ahead.. so its a busy time for the brokers to spruik it up their unsuspecting subscribers, and then i guess its up to the market to determine where it all ends post the exit of .75 crowd..



Their ususpecting subscribers?? Thats wierd coming from the biggest Eagleford promoter I know. 


Agentm said:


> hard to see any downside is there condog
> 
> all the cards have fallen into place now
> 
> ...






Agentm said:


> hey south texas
> 
> 
> jancha
> ...




Strange how Hartleys valuations where spot on when you where in and now they "spruik it up their unsuspecting subscribers" ???

Yes there will be some selling pressure, as per post all CR's and SPP's. The big positive we have is the incredible value being added via drilling and fraccingg on a daily basis.  Not everyone who purchased wants to sell or sell immediately, so 46Million imo is way over the top, perhaps 25M on various timelines.



Agentm said:


> after that then i think the share will settle into some pattern thats understandable.. currently its been sitting in .80 region for a long time.. i am like nun, waiting for the signals to come..






Agentm said:


> also on my mind is oil in the US, and the oil prices are not driven by fundamentals, but rather by funds..



Right now all the futures are up on thir shorter term futures and spots, so its a good outlook at present. Yes things change rapidly, but theres no pattenr of concern there at present. 



Agentm said:


> as you know, i pushed the jvp hard on disclosure, and i am not keen on any oil share that is not disclosing  critical well data that will help all understand how bad or good it is..






Agentm said:


> obviously the operator wont allow weekly updates.. so news will be released, as it can be, and whenever



In February you defended this action and where fine with it.



Agentm said:


> ADI  AUT and EKA now dominate the tipping comp this month
> 
> clearly the 40% rise is amongst these partners is no fluke, there is genuine across the board support for all three
> 
> ...



In feb you thought news of Kennedy might be a justified price catalyst.

This is substantially better then any of the flows and information blackouts that ADI had while you where its biggest advocate and an Eagleford promoter in this thread. Its this sudden change with unjustified comments like this that we find unbelievable.


Agentm said:


> t2 was one heck of a mess, and i was impressed they got it to flow, but it sure needed a very very tight choke to get it to flow, but where it all ends up is yet to be determined, i am watching closely on that front.. but for aut it will be a costly mistake for them as the return on the well, the break even really is now a long long way into the future. if at all, but its up to how the declines go.  and i am not sure how to read the t3 well now.. but i have my concerns.






Agentm said:


> as i say, all the best to the holders and you have to say the sellers are doing brilliantly..




How things change for no apparent reason.


Agentm said:


> indicative opening says .25  and all jvp partners have had significant sp growth over the last week on minor turnover..
> 
> thats 1/4 the way to my conservative $1 sp suggestion (that kinda made joe prick his ears up) and was based on more or less half of the uber conservative price hartleys put out on their recent (feb 2010) broker report
> 
> ...






Agentm said:


> speculator
> some are long term holders like myself
> 
> my plan is to reassess adi once the results come through. and i am sure that the conservative upside value of adi that hartleys put forward will come if the wells continue to produce as they have been.. for me that upside journey is exactly why i invested.. oddly for the upside not the downside
> ...



Its thesee backflips that have us confused.


----------



## nioka (19 July 2010)

With the bad result for trading in the USA on Friday and the fall in the oil price, AUT will face a test today. At this stage it appears that the SP will not fall at open. The next step comes with the subrcription rate for the SPP. Will it be oversubscribed and scaled back?. If it is scaled back then it will establish a demand that will see my attitude was right.Personally I still can't see sales at 75c again. I believe that fundamentals will put technicals well into the shade.


----------



## condog (19 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> Kennedy
> 
> • *The well is flowing from approximately 2,200 ft of stimulated Eagle Ford Shale *with the remainder of the 4,000 ft horizontal liner isolated and not contributing.
> 
> ...




I cant believe your saying T2 and T 1 are dissapointing on restricted chokes, when you pumped ADI results on Kennedy and Weston as "pretty spectacular imo".

Turnbull results are still unclear, but early indications imo on "highly restricted chokes" the same as Pioneer are trialing are very encouraging to say the least.


----------



## condog (19 July 2010)

> Turnbull #2H
> Following completion of drilling operations at the Turnbull #3 well, production to sales commenced at the Turnbull #2 well on 3rd July 2010. The well was produced at a highly restricted rate for 6 days before being shut in. During that time the maximum rate observed over a 24 hours period was:-
> Gas Production Rate
> (mmscf/d)
> ...




This is better then both weston and Kennedy on a highly restricted choke.  Not sure why the sudden change in quantification of whats spectacular, suddenly becomes dissapointing??

I reiterate :

right now its 39c below one analyst valuation and 48c below the other. Those are most likely 6 month targets looking at dec 2010, although Hartleys does call it both a valuation and a target.
Remeber the Hartely ones for ADI with 1.88 ones that where so strongly promoted as conservative.

Thats with 10-13 more wells predicted for 2010. If they then drill 2011 up to 37 wells for AUT, thats a increase from roughly 18 wells to roughly 55 wells at end of 2011. If the average of Hartleys and Euroz is an end of 2010 target of 1.28, then at end of 2011 its likely to be 55/18*1.28 = $3.91

$3.91 over current sp = 465% increase from todays price. This is hypothetical based on Hartleys figures and Euroz figures and projections. Seek advice and do not act on this.

Its 40% below prices established in recent weeks by Reliance and Pioneers deal.

And noe of this takes into account the likely reserves upgrade.

There is no assurance by me or ASF that this is true or will eventuate, its just a hypothetical analysis, based on quantification of broker opinions, so DYOR and seek expert advice always.


----------



## condog (19 July 2010)

Refer ASX announcment 24th June 2010
Tranch 1 have been issued

Selling of insitutional investors has occured since then , yet still we hold our own.

If anything the ADI / AWE TO held us back and we failed to surge and apply the values of the Turnbulls.

There has been 14.5 million shares change hands since and including 25th June till last friday.

In the previous corresponding period there was also 14.5Million shares traded hands. 

So there has been no mass sell off as claimed by some. And despite some predictions its most unlikely to occur if it hasnt already.

If these all knowing predatorial institutional investers where as bad as claims are made, they would have cashed in already for the high % gains in short time frames. Why wait till now and risk the loss some downrampers are projecting?


----------



## condog (19 July 2010)

Agent on page 21 of this thread 21st May AUT pice = 74c prior to Turnbull results , may unit or Patinio unit, prior to successfull CR and 


Agentm said:


> great buying opportunities right now
> 
> the second turnbull well is complete and the third turnbull is about to spud
> 
> ...




Then on 22nd May AUT price = 72.5c


Agentm said:


> i am buying AUT right now, but only because the value is there.. with the turnbull 3 well on the way and the rancho well about to demonstrate its flow.. and more rigs to arrive any day out there.. all very very positive for aut..
> 
> AUT will only appreciate on the base that the ADI bid is creating for it..
> 
> ...






Agentm said:


> nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?
> 
> i almost swear there is a poster here (very exuberant) almost trying to talk for you..lol
> 
> ...




Oh and another  huge backflip  for no apparent reason

One minute its being ramped at 74c, the next after 2.5 more successfull fracs and a CR higher then the price it was being ramped up we are supposed to believe its suddenly lost  value for no apparnet reason.

If it can pull off a CR within weeks at a higher price then you where singing its praises and pull of 2 more fantastic fracs with a 3rd impending then how on earth can it be a worse investment???

Then you accuse us of being overexhuberant. And call us arrogant for wondering why your sudden change in stance.

And now you want us to believe after years of you promoting it with little to no flows, at much lower oil prices and much higher costs that it has questionable economics??

Come on big fella we aint that stupid.


----------



## condog (19 July 2010)

Where is the price of oil likely to head?

Well according to Ron Paul and i agree its to do with the price of the dollar. And with record stimulus packages world wide increasing money supply in almost every nation , all competing for the same limited resources, where do you think its heading??

Im undecided as if global growth is weak its likely to stall, but if those stimulus packages do kick in and create growth, and if india and china keep steaming along theres certainly some upside pressure from the money supply in store at some point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLGvybCr6AM

*Fast-growing nations to spur global oil demand in 2011: IEA*

DUBAI: The world oil demand next year will be fueled by economic growth in fast growing countries like China and India, despite a drop in rich 
countries' appetite for oil, International Energy Agency has said. 

The Paris-based agency in its monthly report on the oil markets estimated the global oil demand in 2011 to rise by a daily 1.3 million barrels or 1.6 per cent, to average 87.8 million a day.  


http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Global oil demand for 2011 is expected to rise by 1.6% or 1.3 mb/d year-on-year to 87.8 mb/d, assuming consensus trends in the world economy, crude prices and efficiency gains. Growth will be driven entirely by non-OECD countries (+3.8% or +1.6 mb/d), while the OECD sees resumed decline (-0.5% or -0.2 mb/d). The 2010 outlook remains largely unchanged at 86.5 mb/d (+2.1% or +1.8 mb/d versus 2009).

LONDON (ICIS news)--World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1m bbl/day to 86.4m bbl/day in 2011, reflecting continued caution about the pace of the global economic recovery, OPEC said on Thursday in its monthly oil report.
http://www.icis.com/Articles/2010/0...mand-projected-to-grow-1m-bblday-in-2011.html


----------



## nunthewiser (19 July 2010)

Gday Agentm,

can you please give me the figure on the complete market cap on this stock taking into account all cap raising issues and spp extra dilution stock when it is all released.

just a rough number will be fine.

Thanks for your posts, its great to have a voice of reason and no bias regarding fundamentals here instead of the usual one eyed sunshine and lollipops analysis here most of the time.

Please keep up the posts.


On a personal note i still have no reason to change my first price target expected of .72 as yet according to my previously posted analysis.

Happy to be wrong and trade it if proven so, until then i will sit and wait and watch the volume games that have been ocurring as pointed out a few posts back in regards to a close it had.


----------



## Moderator (20 July 2010)

All this discussion on AUT is throwing up some great analysis, both fundamental and technical, and some great ideas showing the differing approaches to trading - different timeframes, different entry criteria etc.

What is not great are the accusations of ramping and downramping.  Let's cut that out.  It is possible for reasonable people to disagree.


----------



## estseon (20 July 2010)

"Must say though, my bearishness is not in the charts. It's the the worlds inability to find a long term solution to the disaster we have created. Cheap money, low rates, bs lending practices, encouraging people to get in to debt, and bebt, and debt ...... unsustainable."

The Mr Micawber law is well and truly history: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery." Charles Dickens

The real problem is the combination of high debt and low inflation. People and governments seem to have got into the debt habit when inflation was running at 5%+ and that was not too bad because of the annual diminution. Anybody who could look forward to 10 years of gainful employment would expect the debt to fall in real terms considerably. True, the debt had to be serviced but banks had less risk to the capital of the loan. Governments could look to increasing income taxes in line with wage inflation, which normally ran at 1%-2% higher than RPI.

If governments are not prepared to inflate out of the problem, there will have to be a heavy clamp down on consumption. And that could result in lower energy demand.

Having gone in a bit of a loop, that seems to me to be the other alternative to collapsing currencies and, either way, there will be reduced energy demand.

However, that does not necessarily apply to China, which is a huge market. So the question is whether China and other eastern economies can take up the slack without having to rely upon demand from the indebted western economies.

As regards AUT, I feel that it is necessary to take a longer term view. There are plans (Enterprise Products Partners LP - news release 1 July) to build substantial new infrastructure to collect gas from the region and the target is to complete by Q1 2012. AUT has to continue drilling to secure the leases but may be constrained in the amount of gas that it can produce until that new infrastructure is operational. The bad news is that the drilling density to secure 'oil well' leases is one every 320 acres and that one half of Longhorn may fall into this category (Hartleys 9th July page 5). But the prospective value is greater and there is less dependence on infrastructure because of the lower gas yield. Sugarloaf is less of an issue because of gas field status and the lower WI. There is also Ipanema but I haven't seen much on that yet.

I feel that any bad hit to the price of oil will be reflected in the share price. The forward drilling programme seems to be in a constant flux of change but the significant cash reserves from the capital raisings should insulate AUT's ability to meet its drilling costs obligations for some considerable time to come.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Gday Agentm,
> 
> can you please give me the figure on the complete market cap on this stock taking into account all cap raising issues and spp extra dilution stock when it is all released.
> 
> just a rough number will be fine.




214M + 36M CR + estimated 10M SPP = 250M, roughly 10640 net acres
How about dazzle us with a realistic view point rather then the devils advocate ill founded pesimism like the 40c prediction of last week that you and agent tried to conspire.
ADI had 144M approx post CR at T/O @ 42c and 2500 net acres

I have no problem with alternative views and discussion (two sides to an argument) but when proposturous arguments are put forward with absolutely no reason, evidence or foundation and it affects the psych of holders in here i think we owe it to ourselves to counter that argument with what our calculations are based on. 



nunthewiser said:


> Gday Agentm,
> Thanks for your posts, its great to have a voice of reason and no bias regarding fundamentals here instead of the usual one eyed sunshine and lollipops analysis here most of the time.



Did you not read the last two pages of bias?

My sunshine and lolipops is consistent whether i own the stock or not, its not fluctuating from day to day on when i want to buy or sell. Thats called integrity, aka honesty something i place a very high value on.

I fully respect that traders operate on different time lines and hence have very different entry and exit triggers, and justify different prices, but so far you are yet to put forward any real evidence to support the prices you keep throwing at us. At least my sunshine and lolipops has detailed analysis that is out there for all to question. So far no one has used that information to discredit the figures put forward. Why, because they are real and based on unquestionable real facts of recent weeks. 

I do a lot of trading nun, but not on this stock, its a poor stock to trade, with low volumes and low volatility, so i fully understand charting and technical analysis. Its just you and Agent have put no valid technical analysis forward that justifies such dramatic price calls of 40c and now 72c.  72c may be realistic at some point, although i doubt it given the down pressure of a CR/SPP and market pull back didnt go below 74c.  But your unfounded claim of 40c was and is proposterous especially since the only evidence to support your and agents claim was one very very basic trendline and reswistance line on a chart.

So please by all accounts present realistic alternative viewpoints, but just like mine, be prepared to have them questioned.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

Nun as previously held in very high esteem and promoted by Agent, Hartleys report and Eroz reports and valuations are the best information we have to date.

They have end of 2010 targets / valuations of 1.23 and 1.32 = average 1.28

Presume they are being optimistic as you think and discount it by 20% = 1.02

now they have told us hilcorp plans to drill 10 - 13 wells for the remainder of 2010 and up to 50 wells in 2011, which AUT will have involvement in 75% = 37.  Now lets take a dim view and assume they only drill 10 more in 2010 and only achieve 30 in 2011.  

That pans out to $1.02*48/18 = $2.73

Thats still heaps of upside from 82.5c today

Now lets bee even more pesimistic an assume oil falls by 20%, lets round it off and presume that lowers well economics by 25% and hence the Hartleys end of 2011 valuation by 25%

Working = $2.73 * 75% = $2.04

Now surely thats pesimistic enough for you to stomach. Even thats a whopping 248% estimated return on todays price for 18 months. or 165% annualised return.

If you want we could discount it further, but im sure most can see the potential.

I used these exact same calculation methods 7 months ago to justify my investment in AUT at 25-27c and its proved incredibly accurate. Id projected 90c by end of FY09/10 well it got to 88c, i was pretty dam close. 

Not saying any of this will come true, but DYOR and sums and work it out for yourselves.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

On the flip side if Hartleys are being conservative and we can expect plenty of upgrades as stated in thier report, consider this.

Current average valuation by Hartleys and Euroz = $1.28

If they have been 20% too conservative and oil remains constant. 

Working 
$1.28 * 120% = $1.54 predicted end of 2010 valuation
Assume they drill 13 more for a total of 20 wells in 2010
Then dril projected 37 more in 2011
=57/20*$1.54 = $4.39

So it works both ways.

Im not trying to ramp this, i just truly believe this, which is why i happily put my calculations out there for scrutiny. I actually believe this is too optimistic, but i dont believe its not possible.

Id be more inclined to do my workings on the pesimistic viewpoint as what i want, but what i believe is the original one at $3.91 minus any SPP or CR or debt effect in H2 2011. 

This does not take anyones individual circumstances into account, nor is it implied or guaraunteed in anyway by me or ASF that it is true or accurate or will eventuate. Do your own research and seek expert advice.

Go right back to the AUT investor presentations of Oct Nov 2009. I posted the chart in this thread which shows even AUT where predicting possible growth rates in the hundreds of % once they started to add wells. As we have all witnessed , so far the results and drilling have been better and faster then was ever anticipated, and importantly the oil price is higher, then those original projections.

This growth was no secret - check out the 3rd and 4th last page of the broker presentation from Oct 2009   http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2009/AUT20091006_2.pdf

Then look at the most recent presentation from June 2010 on page 20 at the declines in drilling times. That adds significantly to the economics of each well, and the low break even prices on page 21.
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2010/AUT20100609_1.pdf

Then when you  want to start comparing relative company values and acerage values, look at the results of our wells on page 11, compared to our neighbours.


----------



## Slipperz (20 July 2010)

You're the early bird today Condog!

Ran en eye over who was reporting today in the US and saw Haliburton was up so naturally I thought it would be a bit of a bellweather for the drillers in the US.

Just quietly I thought given the frac crews and drill rigs in the eagleford and elsewhere are probably working around the clock now they would bring home the bacon and that is indeed the case.

"Halliburton's ($28.87, +$1.36, +4.94%) second-quarter earnings rose 83% as the oilfield-services company reported stronger revenue and sequential growth across all its markets. Results rebounded from a weak prior-year period and beat analysts' expectations. Rival services companies were also getting pumped up by the report, including Sclumberger Ltd. (SLB, $58.89, +$2.21, +3.90%), Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI, $47.48, +$1.48, +3.22%) and Smith International Inc. (SII, $40.69, +$1.54, +3.93%)."

Happy with that result! Actually it's closing strongly http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:HAL

Price of oil and gas holding steady, dow ticking up 0.5% on company results. IMHO there is a lot of fear in the US markets that is driven by sentiment and this index or that. At the end of the day it's all about who's making money and that's exactly the sort of concrete news the market is receiving atm.

I think the fundamentals are still looking okay for AUT atm.


Oh here's a calendar for US reporting season. Looks like tech day tomorrow with Apple and Yahoo reporting, but Apple reports after market. 

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20100720.html


----------



## nunthewiser (20 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> But hey .......... it could always bust up all  those stars allighning and run for the moon .........in which case i will trade it and go with  the flow in a not so DANGEROUS area..
> 
> I am not currently holding , unbiased and happy to trade it.
> 
> ...






nunthewiser said:


> Yep as indicated on my chart and analysis posted last night , the sellers are definately in control of this one at present.
> 
> Yet another bounce off the major resistance line and south she heads .
> 
> ...






> condog said:
> 
> 
> > Its just you and Agent have put no valid technical analysis forward that justifies such dramatic price calls of 40c and now 72c.   .[/QUOT
> ...


----------



## nioka (20 July 2010)

Good news just out. Increased production rate and still on restricted choke for Turnbull. Evidently room for more improvement. This should help preventing the SP fall to 75c as predicted by the "gloomers". My calculated comparisons with EKA are now 5 to 1. With EKA holding at 20c then the value I place on AUT must be $1. 

Fundamentals reign supreme for prospectors.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

*LONGHORN AMI PRODUCTION UPDATE*
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on production at the Longhorn Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
*Production Update*
The following well has now been on full production for a period of 30 days:-
Fractured Horizontal Length (ft)                  3980
Total Gas Production (mmscf)                          37
Total Condensate Production (bbls)              21,000
*Average Daily Equivalent Oil Rate (boe/d)*     853*
Turnbull #1H

* The equivalent oil rate for this well has been calculated to reflect value by uplifting the gas by 25% due to the high calorific value and then using a 12:1 conversion ratio. This is consistent with previous calculations of gas equivalent rates made in earlier announcements.
The equivalent rate for this well has been calculated on a barrels equivalent basis recognizing the likelihood that it sits within the oil leg of the Eagle Ford Shale. It is planned to carry out down hole sampling in the future to confirm the hydrocarbon phase under reservoir conditions. This well continues to be operated on a restricted choke as part of the ongoing efforts to optimize recovery and the economics of the wells in the Sugarkane Field.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

Nun, i feel you probably wont believe me , but i firmly 100% honestly believe what i am saying. I would not ramp as i feel its totally unethical and risky behaviour. If i didnt believe and couldnt back it up with analysis, what im saying i wouldnt state it. 

I have topped up 10 times on AUT and sold out twice, yet you wouldnt know, becasue i have always remained positive and dont change my posting style to take advantage of others selling who might be influenced.

The AUT story has been a long time transpiring and several have severely hassled me via posts and PM's for my alleged "over exhuberance". Should i appologise for bringing a stock to the attention of other investors and allowing them to share in a 300%+ gain in 6 months. I feel not. But just incase anyone is annoyed with me for bringing this to your attention, i do firmly appologise, and i feel Nokia should for starting this thread.

I am personally (and im not advocating for others) just expressing my opinion : more confident and feel there is less risk in the next 300% on this stock. I do not think it will be as fast, however i am confident of its attainment. In saying that the 3 big risks are failed wells, oil prices and global growth, particularly china and the USA.

I feel i have always expressed my honest opinion and i feel i have justified this opinion with supporting evidence and facts. I feel from time to time people enter this thread with alterior motives or to play devils advocate and make seriously defamatory statements and proposterous allegations about prices with absolutely no justification or justification that does not stand up to any scrutiny.

So if you have information to the contrary to that posted please feel free to post your reasons for proposing your revised target of 72c so we can scrutinise it and discuss it. 

*I have given detailed reasons why i feel AUT is worth what it is :*
Hartleys valuation $1.23
Euroz Valuation $1.32
Pattersons outdated valuation 93c
Reliance purchase of 45% interest in Pioneer
KKR purchase
Forward cashflow projections
Charts

On the flip side you have stated 72c and given one very basic chart. 

By all means people are entitled to completely different views, but they should at least attempt to back up a contrarian view with some level of detail that can withstand scutiny or be discussed.

As Joe has continually reminded us, all prices must have justification.


----------



## estseon (20 July 2010)

A fuller version of the Hartleys comment was posted on HC.

Oil field classification for Longhorn is now estimated at 35% (previously 50%). So drilling requirements to secure leases are reduced. They say that there will be 'back-to-back drilling (though they don't say on which acreage - Sugarloaf will be for the rest of 2010 if they are to drill the target number of wells). They also say that AUT is fully funded for the drilling.

The poster on HC suggested a scale back of 1/3rd in the SPP.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

Gas IP mmcf/d Oil IP bopd Gas 30 day mmcf/d Oil 30 day bopd
Kennedy 4.39 1,132 3.05 661
Weston 5.68 414 5.49 388
Morgan 5.16 2,046 3.65 1,283
Easley 6.81 780 4.20 407
Rancho Grande 3.19 1,170 2.83 1,040
Turnbull 1 1.53 893 1.23 700
Turnbull 2 1.12 526 
Avg 3.98 994 3.41 747

Turnbull 2 is expected to be higher as it has been restricted and spent several days shut in due to H2S

Excellent results and confirms the quality of the extremely important Longhorn acerage that makes up 65% of AUT's play at 25% net interest.

Its early days but results also seem to indicate the restricted chokes may be helping as planned for lower declines and better well longevity.



> Aurora is well funded to meet its share of drilling costs moving forward so this is not an issue for the Company.
> 
> We also expect significant newsflow over the coming weeks and months with back to back drilling planned into the foreseeable future.
> 
> ...




Them is some nice apples Esteon, MIR, Nokia, Slipperz you got to love that.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

Ive update my spreadsheet using the 30 day averages supplied. and discounted them slightly to give an estimate of the end of 2010 valuation in my opinion at 40% tax and royalties, $70 boc and $3.80 gas. 

Ive applied the average accross all wells as its far easier to update. So whilst each well is not truly indicative, the sum total is correct as per the information supplied by AUT.

Please do not rely or make decisions on this. It is an opinion, it could be right or wrong.

I came out with a valuation of $2.03 for end of 2010 based on a forward cash flow model and 5% of 2011 well values applied for future revenue premium.

Always DYOR and seek expert advice.




*Realistically imo it will be lower due to the market taking time to understand the play and each well not having full 12 months revenue. Id actually for my own purposes now discount that by 25% to get around $1.54 or so.*

This is not an implied eventuality or guarauntee of future price. Its merely my opinion and calculations for discussion.

Using 600bocpd and 2500mmcfgpd it comes out at 1.75 - 25% = approx $1.29


----------



## nioka (20 July 2010)

condog said:


> Them is some nice apples Esteon, MIR, Nokia, Slipperz you got to love that.




Grand apples indeed. However the grand apples have already been achieved and in the process of being devoured. I started in this play and invested the grand sum of $5000 as the apple seed. Had the germination and growth been fast I may have had a ten bagger at best, $50,000. Because there were droughts,floods and pestilence that slowed the growth I have ended up with over $500,000 from that initial outlay. It was all done by trading the regular changes in the relative value of the three. Now that the play has been proven it is impossible to make a trade a week and those trades yield very little improvement. My strategy now is to sit and wait. I hold a reasonable number of AUT and EKA and will hold until I calculate that there is little more to be gained by holding. I suggest that point is a long way off but the best apples have been harvested from this tree. However there is now less risk as AUT becomes a producer not a wildcat prospector.

I believe that a point of peak oil is here and new oil fields will be harder to find and costlier to develop. The cost of finding this one has been paid and the field has been "found". Oil prices will not fall below the cost of production at worst and best prices are probably yet to be seen. Drilling times have been substantially reduced along with the cost of drilling. I'm not going to suggest a future SP but I do feel that the current SP is far below true value.


----------



## rcm617 (20 July 2010)

You're being very optimistic with decline rates there condog. When you average production for 30 to 60 day production from the four wells we have those figures for, I get an average production of 456 bopd and 3.5mmcf of gas per day. That includes morgan which is an exceptional well and not indicative of the other wells since.I'm sure production will be well below the second months figures by the end of the year.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

rcm617 said:


> You're being very optimistic with decline rates there condog. When you average production for 30 to 60 day production from the four wells we have those figures for, I get an average production of 456 bopd and 3.5mmcf of gas per day. That includes morgan which is an exceptional well and not indicative of the other wells since.I'm sure production will be well below the second months figures by the end of the year.




RCM can you post some more working on how your calculating that. And are you taking into account todays numbers out.  Ta. Point taken and i agree mostly, which is why i discounted to 600 and 2500. Probably could go further, but waiting on new declines for restircted chokes.

The 456 might be a bit low for 60 day averages as those new 30 day flows are significantly reduced declines on the restricted chokes. Although 450 might be a more realistic 12 month average. 

The 30 day decline is averaging 24.8% by the figures above. So the 30 - 60 day decline should theoretically be substantially below that.

Using 450 bocpd and 2000mmcfgpd it comes out at $1.29 in line with Hartley and Euroz average valuation.

Using 450 and 2000 for 2011 - I get $2.20 for end of 2011 based on $70 $3.80 40% tax+Royl and 30 wells in 2011


----------



## rcm617 (20 July 2010)

I just subtracted the 30 day production totals from the 60 day production totals for the 4 wells and averaged them to give me the second months production figures.


----------



## tonudiki (20 July 2010)

A very interesting snippet from the latest Hartleys report on AUT was their expectation that an upcoming reserves report by Netherland Sewell and Associates (NSAI) might improve the recovery estimate for AUT's acreage from 7% (per their Sept 09 report) up to as much as 22%. i.e  a tripling of the potential gas/condensate recoveries.

 The Sept 09 initial "mid-case" resource estimate by NSAI was 391 bcf of gas and 72 million brls of condensate attributable to AUT from their Austin Chalks and Eagle Ford pre-farmout net acreage.   Scaling this up from a 7% recovery to 22% recovery and then halving for post-farmout working interest, we would have  a net 614 bcf of gas and 113m brls of concentrate for AUT. (I have ignored the recent  increase in AUT's  acreage ).

 Anyone got a reasonable suggestion as to an "in the ground"  fair value to put on revised volumes such as these? Only a portion would be P2  with the majority probably being P3 reserves???  

 Toying with the figures myself,  I used a value of US $0.40 per mcf of gas and US$7 per brl of concentrate which gave an in the ground value of  (691m  X  0.40) + (113m x 7) = US$1067.4 million for AUT. 

Converting the FX ( 1.15 A$ = 1 US$) = A$1227.5m.  Dividing by ~279 million shares = *A$4-40  per share*.

 An "interesting" potential value per share, but I doubt that my numbers are very soundly based, as I have assumed the full tripling of recoveries and also used an average for P2 and P3 reserves without knowing the respective split between them or individual values to place on them. Hopefully, however,  someone can improve on my rough calculations?


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

Tnaduki i posted mine before seeing yours so have editied it at the end of this post.

From the Hartleys update today

EV / 2C Resouce ($/mmboe) $2.71 

When ADI was bought it was valued at approx $3.26 per mmboe

At $3.60 AUT would be 68.7mmboe * 3.26 = $224M mcap

If Hartleys are in the ballpark and the reserves are upgraded 300%, thats $224*300%= 672M mcap / 248M shares = $2.71

If they are wrong an its upgraded by 100% to 138mmboe thats roughly $448M = approx $1.81 sp

Just another way and another method in my opinion confirming the value on offer.

Tanduki - the $4-40 imo is probably too optimistic in the very short term, but does highlight the potential upside.

The best thing ive found to relate it to is the ADI sale. 

However we could dig for Pioneers figures in the reliance deal and use those as well to get an average.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

Tonoduki


> AWE’s offer for Adelphi Energy implies a value of ~$30.7K per acre ofEagle Ford Shale Formation (EFS). Applying this dollar value per equityacre of EFS to Texon’s acreage of Edwards and EFS in McMullen CountyTexas, produces a look-through value of ~$138 million or ~$0.90 pershare (diluted) for Texon’s EFS project only. Strachan Corporate esti-mates that the value for long term development of Texon’s EFS project is3 times this bid related metric




From: http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...607.pdf+adi+awe+/boe&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

at $30.7 for AUT = 9690*30700= $297M mcap = approx $1.17 now with to premium built in. But also take into account We have more developed wells then ADI has and had at time of take over. Which probably just removes TO premium. Giving imo  $1.16 value now using this method and a TO value of significantly above that. Note this does not imply any TO, its just using another methodology to apply a value.


----------



## condog (20 July 2010)

From the Price Waterhouse Coopers report on the ADI takeover on how to value a company.



> There are a number of different methodologies generally used for valuing oil and
> gas assets, including the following:
> ● income based approach, including discounted cash flow (“DCF”) and expected
> monetary value analysis;
> ...



ADI valuation from that report below in case you want to work it out.


----------



## tonudiki (20 July 2010)

condog

 Thanks for the info.

  I think that the AWE offer for ADI quoted by Strachan at $30.7k per acre was calculated from the final offer price of 42 cps rather than the "fair value" of 61 cps per ADI's target's statement. Also, the basis of even that supposed "fair value" calculation was IMHO flawed due to unmerited aggresive discounting,  assumptions re future dry wells and the pace of the development by Hilcorp of the Sugarloaf field.  And finally (!), the condensate:gas ratio on AUT's Longhorn acreage looks (so far) to be much better than that of the Sugarloaf AMI acreage which will add a higher value.

 Anyway, whichever valuation is used, all roads seem currently to point to a prosperous future with AUT shares (providing the external factors don't interfere too much).

 Interesting to note that Strachan also put a value to Texon of A$55million on 3 million brls of P2 reserves i.e. $18.33 per brl.   Something to look forward to when we grow our P2 figures lol


----------



## mir (20 July 2010)

i still like this old one nice & simple
$16.5m US x 130  net wells  = a lot more than 83.5c per share ,this NPV was based on the first 2 wells which were only 2000' in length so the NPV will now be a lot higher
http://i922.photobucket.com/albums/ad68/mir911/ScannedDoc_0001-1.jpg?t=1279628411


----------



## mir (21 July 2010)

just trying to work out how to post images ,no idea but here we go.




i still like this old one nice & simple
US$16.5m  NPV per well x 130 net wells = a lot more than 83.5c per share ,this NPV was based on the first 2 wells which were only 2000' to 3000' in length so the NPV will now be a lot higher.


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

mir said:


> just trying to work out how to post images ,no idea but here we go.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Got to say in its rawest form its a good guide of future worth

130 * 16.5 M = over $2B

Divided by shares outstanding and oppies = over $8 per share

As i said and you said its raw as hell, but its a guide of what they have in the ground and will attempt to recover. My gut feeling on this method is NVP's will climb above 16.5M due to decreasing drill and frac times, and better economics, but by the same token that $8 is unlocked overnight.

Forward cash modelling also shows this figure is attainable with certain parameters.

I dont think you and i will get to see it as my guess is by then one of the big 4 will own it.


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

tonudiki said:


> condog
> 
> Thanks for the info.
> 
> ...




Yes agree very much. I maded this point a few months ago. That no matter what method is used AUT looked extremely cheap. Right now its obviously not as cheap as it was, but it still looks good value imho and its growth prospects are amazing.


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

Extrapolation from the Reliance Pioneer mmboe figures for a 45% interest from
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/...sources-idr-at-bb-outlook-stable-1022551.html




Note this is just another opinion and valuation method put forward for opinion or discussion. No implied value or guarauntee of future price is made. Always DYOR and seek expert advice. May contain errors, miscalculations or misjudgmnets.

imo watch AUT closely for the next few weeks for the reserves upgrade as a rough guide to value. 

*Note: correction of my above in post 748 it says is unlocked over night - it should say is not unlocked overnight.*


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

Interesting Read

extract of interest FROM
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/3592...illing-gom.htm

*according to Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry*. Porter, who built his reputation on finding safe-value investments poised to give his followers years of exceptional returns, also has a reputation as an independent thinker with a penchant for "out-of-consensus" viewpoints. He shares some of his contrarian opinions in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report.

TER: Meanwhile, *in the wake of this spill, many people are talking more about alternative ways of getting oil.* For instance, I've seen oil shale discussions on morning TV. How realistic is it to expect more production out of tar sands, etc.?

PS: Well, *the Eagle Ford shale has a lot of condensate in it, which isn't necessarily oil, but actually in some cases is more valuable than oil *because it's easier to crack it into gasoline. There's already a lot of natural gas liquid production today in various shales across the country, and I expect big increases in that.

I have an out-of-consensus view here, but my sources-all practicing oilmen in Texas who own land in the Eagle Ford and have drilled wells there themselves-tell me that they *believe the Eagle Ford will be the largest single oilfield in the history of the United States*. And they said oil, not natural gas. They're talking about natural gas liquids, which are just as good as oil-or as I indicated, even better in a lot of cases.

TER: That sounds like good news.

PS: Depending on your outlook, I'm afraid it means that *natural gas prices will stay depressed for a very long time*, but it's definitely going to be a big game-changer for domestic, onshore production. Just last month, Reliance Industries Ltd. (BSE:RIL), the biggest conglomerate in India, paid around $1.3 billion for 40% of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.'s (NYSEXD) Eagle Ford property. China hasn't bought anything in the Eagle Ford, but they will. I personally think they're likely to buy Petrohawk Energy Corporation (NYSE:HK). I have no evidence of that, just an instinct. Petrohawk has some of the best properties, but China is probably the only one willing to pay the very high price they're demanding. So that's the next deal I expect. *You're definitely going to see a lot more deals*.

TER: What stands out about Petrohawk?

PS: I think its first year's drilling campaign was in 2009, and *they drilled something like 28 different holes without a single dry one. When you have no dry holes, the return on your capital from your drilling program is vastly higher. It's a whole new ballgame. It's just vastly more efficient and therefore the eventual profit margins from production will be even higher than they already are.*

In my mind, horizontal drilling and the existence of liquids in these shales is the game-changer for the energy business, and *I really don't think people appreciate how big a change it's going to be *or how large the production from these fields is going to be. 

..... about fraccing environmental concerns.....blah blah

PS.......about investing in infrastucture and equipment companies or exploration companies.........blah blah

PS.  *I think it makes more sense just to buy the companies with the best acreage in the field, and sooner or later you're going to make a lot of money.* Even if it takes a long time to get all the holes drilled, the resource is there.

*I don't think most investors appreciate that there aren't any dry holes in these fields because they use seismic technology to look before they drill*. They know the exact depth of the shale and once they know they're in it, they just drill sideways.


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

*Oil gains on forecasts inventories will decline July 21, 2010 - 7:02AM*

Agent on June 30th you wanted evidence hurricanes lead to increase oil prices. Well today as predicted it helped oil tick up 90c. Oil price  futures when i first mentioned this where just over $70, today they are approaching $78. 



condog said:


> Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).






Agentm said:


> i have no idea what you talking about here condog?  can you present some facts on this that back up what you saying
> 
> re energy future prices up?? can you confirm that is correct please.. imho if you research *oil futures which i think are the relevant ones to look at,* you will find its been down for 5 days straight!!
> 
> ...




From Todays sydney Morning Herald


> .Crude oil rose to a three-week high as a tropical wave formed in the Caribbean, potentially threatening production in the Gulf of Mexico, and on predictions of a decline in inventories.
> 
> *Oil climbed after the National Hurricane Center said that a weather system over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has a 60 per cent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone*. An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show that US stockpiles of crude oil dropped last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
> 
> ...


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

Nuns diagram the other day - I added the two blue lines and white vertical line to show the flag formation.


A typical bull sign flag


A chartis bull flag


Typical breakout flag


----------



## condog (21 July 2010)

Are we forming a 2nd consolidation bull flag now ready to break out on next weeks possible reserve upgrade ???


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Im not speculating any TO is on offer , but with the levels of M&A in the Eagleford its something every investor needs to consider and keep tucked away in thier mind.

The last thing most newer holder want right now is a TO which can wipe out up to 45% of your gains with CGT payable if not discounted.

But one reasurring thing with all this M & A activity is the premiums built in.

When AWE launched its bid for ADI, ADI was at 23c 

The eventual TO price was 42c

On that basis it was an 82% TO premium from the last price.

Extrapolate that to AUT right now and we are looking at offers north or 42/23*84c = approx $1.54

This is far too cheap . But on the back of next weeks upgrade we may well see a possible price surge. If we do in coming weeks that TO premium may push nrth of $2, which would be more comforting to most holders.

Based on the reliance deal with next weeks predicted upgrades, that figure based on an mmboe price may be up to $2.71 . See post 20th jul 7.47pm

However based on the ADI deal we also know some of these are predators and will leap when these companies are trading cheaply. ADI was valued by Price Waqterhouse Coopers at 61c but was eventually consumed at 42c.


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Possible timelines - can you think of anything needs adding? / changing?

*Last week of July*-  reserves upgrade, up to 300%?? suggested by Hartleys
- small chance of Kowalick drill finish, but most likely the following week
- possible T2 flow again
- possibility of T3 flow announcment
- SPUD may unit or patinio
- look on TRRC for next well applications
*
1st Week of August*- reserves upgrade overdue
- Kowalick ready to frac
- T2 should be flowing again
- T3 IP's out
- Spud announced
- look on TRRC for next well applications

*Last Week of August*- T1 T2 and T3 30 day flows
- Ready to frac may unit or pation and the other to spud
- new wells should be up on TRRC
- Be looking for Hartleys and Euroz broker updates on the back of flows updates and reserves upgrade.

August to September - repetition of drilling fraccing cycles

1st week of october
- News of cash revenues flowing post Hilcorp payback.

1st Week January
Approx 17-21 wells flowing to sales.
Hilcorp expecting 3rd rig on site and full time frac crew.

H2 2011
Impending need for modest capital, via debt facility, SPP or CR

End 2011
Approx 37 wells for 2011 flowing and 17-21 from 2010


----------



## Slipperz (22 July 2010)

The next quarterly will make for interesting reading.

Whether it provides the spark to get the shareprice moving again remains to be seen. 

I'm a bit disappointed with the momentum at the moment and can't afford to have my capital languish  

I need my cash working hard for me every day of the week.





Moved across to LNC for the time being...

But I'll be back!


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Its actually just had 60 days of consolidation and is well below its correctly placed trendline, the bollenegers are tight and there is the potentially massive price catalyst of the reserves upgrade.

On the MACD it looks good and its slow and fast moving stochastics look good for a rise.

On another note 

July 21, 2010 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published Oil and Gas Production and Distribution Report 

http://www.twst.com/yagoo/weisss.html

Philip H. Weiss is a Senior Analyst covering the energy sector at Argus Research Co. Prior to Argus, he worked as a Senior Institutional Writer for T. Rowe Price, where he wrote commentary for several of the firm's investment strategies and white papers on investment-related topics. Mr. Weiss also worked as a Writer/Analyst/Co-Portfolio Manager for The Motley Fool's Cash King/Rule Maker Portfolio. 

TWST: With high oil prices, the companies must be generating pretty good cash flow. Where is it going? Is it going into E And P?

Mr. Weiss: I think a lot of it is cap ex. The bulk of cap ex spending by the integrateds is certainly going into E And P activity. Cap ex on the refining side is down pretty dramatic because the downstream environment is so weak. Most companies are more or less limiting downstream cap ex to maintenance levels. On average, 75% to 80% of cap ex for integrateds is allocated to upstream activities. *Another thing companies have done where they can is - the big push right now is towards more liquids production. It's the wet-gas plays, like the Eagle Ford and the Granite Wash, and places like that, where you are not just getting dry gas.*


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

*UPDATE 1-TPG invests $300 million in Copano Energy
Wed Jul 21, 2010 9:12pm GMT  *

* Copano issues $300 mln convertible preferred to TPG
* To be used to fund Eagle Ford Shale expansion

By Megan Davies and Matt Daily

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - Private equity firm TPG Capital [TPG.UL] is investing $300 million in natural gas company Copano Energy (CPNO.O: Quote), which it will use to fund shale gas production developments, Copano said on Wednesday.

.....

Eagle Ford, like other shale gas fields such as the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, New York and other states, and the Haynesville in Louisiana, have attracted billions of dollars in investments in recent months.


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Might be out by a few days, but its looking good.

60 days of consolidation

Long term trendline on the bottoms is innacurate due to trend since April when Hilcorp took over and set a cracking pace of establinghing highly successful wells. 

Certainly imo its sitting either below its newly established trendline or low in the trading band. Which is to be expected on the back of a CR and SPP.

Firmly entrenched new resistance established after extended trading just above 80c

MACD crossing


Stochastics low and ready to turn


bumping on the 20day average

Underpinned by value when compared to the ADI sale price, the Pioneer deal.

Reserves upgrade due

Continual news  flow of new wells with extremely encouraging flows, and high liquid ratios

Might track side ways a few more days imo slipperz but that would be about the extent of it before we see these short sighted or short term sellers drying up fast.  

Too much news coming and too much value being added for it not to head north imo.


----------



## Kremmen (22 July 2010)

AUT has confirmed oversubscription of the SPP and expects pro-rata scale-back by about 1/3. What I don't get is why they'd be stupid enough to punish shareholders this way?

When capital is wanted and, generally, hard to get, they could have allowed for over-subscriptions. Instead, they just hold the money, get interest on it, and will probably then send us damned refunds by cheque, costing us more money and effort to bank the stupid things. Lose-lose scenario.


----------



## estseon (22 July 2010)

Well, Kremmen, if you reside in Australia or NZ, you might pick up some of the shares provisionally allocated to me as I am not. I filed my application electronically through my broker before I was aware of that restriction. Computers being what they are, I got debited with the full AUD15k so I just have to wait until next Tuesday to see what happens. The bit of information that I do have, I got directly from Ms Foster by e-mail. I can't get any sense out of the humanoids paid as brokers. It's going to be a bit costly anyway because of FX charges. But, If they don't twig that I'm a foreigner (eligible to buy on the market but not to participate in corporate actions), I might get a 2/3rds allocation. Nothing for it but to wait and see.

As to the offer itself, the number of shares is probably capped because the issue has to be specifically approved by company resolution. It is also underwritten, I believe. Both make a flexible issue (meeting demand from shareholders) a bit problematic, I would have thought.

As I've bought the AUD anyway, I might use them to buy some in the market if I don't get an allocation.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 July 2010)

Who knows what the future may bring. Maybe you will be greatful, in time to come, that there was a scale back and you received some of your hard earned money back?


----------



## nulla nulla (22 July 2010)

Lower highs and lower lows...
where she stops, no-one knows....







Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Kremmen said:


> AUT has confirmed oversubscription of the SPP and expects pro-rata scale-back by about 1/3. What I don't get is why they'd be stupid enough to punish shareholders this way?
> 
> When capital is wanted and, generally, hard to get, they could have allowed for over-subscriptions. Instead, they just hold the money, get interest on it, and will probably then send us damned refunds by cheque, costing us more money and effort to bank the stupid things. Lose-lose scenario.




I thought some people where pretty silly not to buy at 74c -76c at the time the announcment was made and the following weeks. Why bother with the paper work and chance of scale back when you can get them on market at that price.

In terms of the scale back i actually like the fact. They showed discipline and have not diluted us more the necesary. If they where operator they could have done what you said, but they now have enough capital to get through to H2 2011 so an extra few mil on the balance sheets looks like lazy money , ie diluted extra % for no productive reason.  But i understand your frustration, unfortunately for you its par for the course with most CR's these days.


----------



## estseon (22 July 2010)

nulla nulla

It is a point. On a far far larger scale, I wasn't sure whether to be grateful to AWE that it forced me out of ADI or to be resentful.

So, in a way I've already been through that thought process. Had I been convinced that I wanted that much money to remain invested, I'd have ploughed it all back into AUT and EKA.

The bid gave me the opportunity to reconsider whether I wanted that level of exposure. The answer was in the negative - so I took some cash out. Quite a bit. Not for want of confidence in the company (AUT) but for want of comfort with the general economic situation.

It's not the strategy to optimise profits but it is a better strategy in uncertain times to survive and make some profit. Besides which, when you have dependants, it is difficult to budget ahead precisely.


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Lower highs and lower lows...
> where she stops, no-one knows....
> 
> 
> ...




yep

One should keep an eye on the intrday action also . lots more volume being sold down into the market that comes in off screen .shows in course of sales and even better when you watching it live.

I have mentioned the dodgy volume games before on this thread.

No reason to change my .72 target as yet as shown on previous analysis chart.

volumes telling a different story to the weak volume pump ups during the day and at close.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 July 2010)

estseon said:


> nulla nulla
> 
> It is a point. On a far far larger scale, I wasn't sure whether to be grateful to AWE that it forced me out of ADI or to be resentful.
> 
> ...




Yeah I tend to agree. I find it hard to pour in funds in the present unreliable environment then hold through the falls and (hopefully) rises. Much better to lock in profits and re-enter on subsequent retraces, where there is enough stability in the share to have confidence that it will recover.


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Lower highs and lower lows...
> where she stops, no-one knows....
> 
> Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.




Nulla its one stock that can hardly be associated with hot air. They have consistently added value with underlying assets that will soon be producing monumentally helpful cash flows.

Cast an eye off your charts and have a read and take a look at the fundamentals, it might help you to know what your graphs are showing.

The flat patch at present is normal after CR and SPP, sellers will evaporate and the price will play catch up to the significant value added during the consolidation of the last 60 days imo. 

Reserves upgrade next week or the following will certainly massively imporve underlying value. No guarauntees that will immediately be reflected in the sp, but it will certainly help with broker upgrades or anyone casting a fundamental ruler over AUT.


----------



## Sean K (22 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Lower highs and lower lows...
> where she stops, no-one knows....
> 
> Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.



Looks like a more bullish hammer to me with a dodgy cup and handle forming up (more like a martini glass and handle). Those tails are always a positive sign imo. Between 65 and 75c looks like very good short term support. No idea where it's going  on the way up, bubbles bubble.


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> One should keep an eye on the intrday action also . lots more volume being sold down into the market that comes in off screen .shows in course of sales and even better when you watching it live.




??? Not sure what you mean here, can you please explain.



nunthewiser said:


> I have mentioned the dodgy volume games before on this thread.
> 
> volumes telling a different story to the weak volume pump ups during the day and at close.




I was under the illusion that for every trade there was both a buyer and a seller who agreed to trade the share for money. Are you saying the buyers are being ripped off, not paying or what???

Could you possibly point out what you mean by these alleged dodgy volume games.

I have pasted all of todays trades below so you can kindly explain this and prove such what seem like wild accusations.


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

My posts are self explanatory.

might help if people actually followed the trades as they happen.

I am not here to teach anyone how to read volumes whilst trading.

There are plenty of Volume threads on ASF if you need any education.


read into my posts how you wish, they are relevant, acurate and non biased.

lol and so far both times ive called a ST top on here for AUT i have been correct 

gotta love that.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (22 July 2010)

Now I can see the exact time I bought 10,000 of them today. How can you have dodgy volume? People putting in fake bids / offers????


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Lower highs and lower lows...
> where she stops, no-one knows....
> 
> 
> ...




Nulla do you know whats been driving the price during the period you refer to over the past 60 days. The first was a mass sell off on the entire market with fears of a US recession, double dip that is. The second was speculation which turned out true of a CR, the third was the discounted SPP, which all allowed buyers to buy below market level both private and institutional. 

Right now we are seeing slightly increased volumes of sellers. But despite all the doom and gloom by a few that have so far shown little understanding of the stock, buyers are still cuing up to over subscribe the SPP by 33% and to allow the SP to be maintained via sufficeint buyers seeing the value and wanting in.

Yes your graph shows lower lows and lower highs, but this is exactly why its so dangerous to make assumptions based only on graphs. Charts or graphs are part of the equation, they can help show patterns that in some instances can help indicate trends about to unfold. 

However far more important is knowing why the chart is showing that pattern so that you can rationalise and make safe informed decisions on what your charts are "predicting".

Right now the chart is showing some selling pressure, which is totally understandable given its on the back of a CR and SPP. 

However its also telling you we have had 60+ days of trading held back for legitimate reasons with good volumes going through establishing a massive bunch of new buyers and traders with purchase prices around and just over 80c. We also have 48Million buyers came in at 75c. 

All the while during that 60 days, hilcorp have kept drilling and fraccing and flowing new wells to sales, putting in applications and securing capital to sure up continuous accelerated forward drilling programs. 

Merger and acquisitions have continued at a frantic pace with record new prices being paid, and the Eagleford continues to make international headlines worldwide.

Like wise Netherland Sewell Associates in Houston have been busily working away on the eagerly anticipated reserves upgrade calculations due out next week or the following week.

So right now i dont see too many concerns other then a bot of noise. Oil price is good and US situation while concerning is relatively stable imo.


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Now I can see the exact time I bought 10,000 of them today. How can you have dodgy volume? People putting in fake bids / offers????




Fake bids and orders are a daily occurunce on this stock ..... 1 minute their there propping things up then POW the price gets close and they dissapear..... same with a lot of lower volume plays...... just a puff up on depths to try and "influemnce" other punters

dodgy volume = i mean the games played as in the actual buy ups to sell downs and at the price levels the major vols go through.

the other day a prime example , all day it traded around its lows to mid areas .YET on close  minor volumes was used to push the close price up to finish on its highs ..i mentioned this a few posts back but it was ignored

happens all over the asx not just AUT , is used too the reverse also.

There is more in depth chat about it around these forums but my suggestions is IF you have the time to atually sit in front of the screen to watch what occurs in the pump up and sooth down on intraday action . Not on every stock but sure is noticeable when you keep an eye out for it.

but hey just because i use different methods to trade , dont mean anyone else should.

lol i could be wrong also .


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> My posts are self explanatory.
> 
> might help if people actually followed the trades as they happen.
> 
> ...




Didnt think youd be able to justify those wild accusations, but i thought id be polite and ask nicely.

Yep and your right - your not her to educate, a quick flick through your post history quickly highlights that you appear to be here to antagonise.


By the way nun any alleged dodgy volume games on close certainly did not occur today. There where more trades in volume to prove demand on close in the last 12 minutes then in the previous hour. So it was hardly the low volume price spike or dip , you refer to. 

Nuns right that that can happen, but as he say it happens on lots of stocks and in the end it all seems to even out. Yet another reason relying solely on charts to heavily can prove very dangerous if they are being manipulated to show false patterns. 

Whats to say nullas chart above hasnt been manipulated 6 days in a row by someone wanting to scare the market.

It all evens out eventually stocks chase fair value, rather then smoke and mirrors.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (22 July 2010)

Oh ok, I thought the Volume was only a total of all stock traded not in the queue. Moving towards a dollar would be nice in a few months


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Oh ok, I thought the Volume was only a total of all stock traded not in the queue.





the overall volume tally for the day is the overall stock traded.

Breaking this volume tally down with observation is what often tells a story .

Please take the time to have a squiz around the volume threads , there is some intresting reading.

cheers and good luck with your hold


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

condog said:


> Didnt think youd be able to justify those wild accusations, but i thought id be polite and ask nicely.
> 
> Yep and your right - your not her to educate, a quick flick through your post history quickly highlights that you appear to be here to antagonise.




I have not addressed you and have been told not to bother replying to you but i do not appreciate yet another personal attack . why do you persist ?when its obvious i have nothing to share with YOU and merely posting my comments/thoughts to others here .


----------



## J&M (22 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Fake bids and orders are a daily occurunce on this stock ..... 1 minute their there propping things up then POW the price gets close and they dissapear..... same with a lot of lower volume plays...... just a puff up on depths to try and "influemnce" other punters
> 
> dodgy volume = i mean the games played as in the actual buy ups to sell downs and at the price levels the major vols go through.
> 
> ...




So what you mean is the stock can trade all day at say  98c or a $1 
Then someone buys at $1.30 to set the stock at false higher rate 
The punter sees he stock going up so more jump in a buy the stock pushing the stock up to day $1.40
when the stock is higher the punter who placed the higher bid of  $1.30   then sells for a profit 
am i reading this correct ???


----------



## Slipperz (22 July 2010)

VWAP came in at 82.18  on meagre volumes.

I think the closing price is a bit flattering. 

Bit of a dull retail shoppers day.


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

J&M said:


> So what you mean is the stock can trade all day at say  98c or a $1
> Then someone buys at $1.30 to set the stock at false higher rate
> The punter sees he stock going up so more jump in a buy the stock
> when the stock is higher the punter who placed the higher bid then sells for a profit
> am i reading this correct ???





Dependant on the supply volume in the sell depths.

Often a stock will be "propped" up using fake bids to attract buyers to the listed depth.... off screen sellers will sell into these punters and the dummy bids will be removed if other sellers start getting nr them.They will continue to do this at various levels and it is a daily occurence to create a buyer stack to sell into.

Dependant on the stock re pushing for a higher close it all depends on the screen sell side depth .if theres bugger all there its easy to push it up a few notches on a small% of the volume traded for that day.

may not make sense but there is a method in my madness im trying to explain


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> *VWAP came in at 82.18  on meagre volumes.
> 
> I think the closing price is a bit flattering. *
> 
> : :




Ahha 

cheers slipperz, may pay you to check over the last week or so also dude.. thanks for taking the time to looki  at the other side also


----------



## Agentm (22 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> I have not addressed you and have been told not to bother replying to you but i do not appreciate yet another personal attack . why do you persist ?when its obvious i have nothing to share with YOU and merely posting my comments/thoughts to others here .




nice post nun

been following your thoughts closely..  and hats off to your correct perceptions 

for me its been enlightening

anyone watching bph?


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> VWAP came in at 82.18  on meagre volumes.
> 
> I think the closing price is a bit flattering.
> 
> Bit of a dull retail shoppers day.




Normally a VWAP so far below the close might ring alarm bells but if you look at the trades they ticked up nicley over a few hours to the close, so certainly today nothing dodgey appears to have happened.


----------



## Slipperz (22 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Ahha
> 
> cheers slipperz, may pay you to check over the last week or so also dude.. thanks for taking the time to looki  at the other side also




nunthewiser I track AUT like a hawk.

I thought it was off and gone to the dollar and beyond a ways back  but it hit resistance and has retraced and seems a bit lacking in momentum of recent.

For now I'm tracking AUT while  the wheeling and dealing at SSN and LNC is being done.

Oh and as an aside tonight on ABC news Alan Kohler reported that for the first time in history China has replaced the USA as the worlds largest consumer of oil.

By volume not per capita of course. If it were per capita we'd all be riding bikes!


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

> Originally Posted by nunthewiser
> I have not addressed you and have been told not to bother replying to you but i do not appreciate yet another personal attack . why do you persist ?when its obvious i have nothing to share with YOU and merely posting my comments/thoughts to others here .




Nun you dont hold this stock but persist to come and make wild accusations. I simply provided todays trades and asked you politely to justify those accusations by showing us what you meant.

You did actually relply to me.


----------



## J&M (22 July 2010)

condog said:


> Nun you dont hold this stock but persist to come and make wild accusations. I simply provided todays trades and asked you politely to justify those accusations by showing us what you meant.
> 
> You did actually relply to me.




I thought that Nun was looking to buy at a certain price 
I think his comments are very informative ( as are condogs)
but hey what would I know you are all way smarter the me in the share market


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

condog said:


> Nun you dont hold this stock but persist to come and make wild accusations.  .




Mmmmm yet another personal attack..... i have provided nothing but analysis all evening tonight and resent my posts being misrepresented as " wild acusations" when they are unbiased knowledgeable volume analysis.

why do you persist in these personal attacks?


----------



## nunthewiser (22 July 2010)

J&M said:


> I thought that Nun was looking to buy at a certain price
> I think his comments are very informative ( as are condogs)
> but hey what would I know you are all way smarter the me in the share market





im looking at various pivot points .....im happy to enter at any moment my signals tell me too , be it 93 cents or 66 cents all depends on the action at time and my interpretation of the action at time ....

I couldnt care less if this goes up, down , sideways, my entry criterias are based on various chart and volume signals.

just been posting targets i think it will hit first

could be wrong

I dont think im any smarter than anyone here .... i trade my own way .its my cash so why would i let anyone else influence me on how to spend it....nothing to do with anyone being smarter than anyone .its all personal choice on how you spend ya cash ... i just voicing mine


----------



## condog (22 July 2010)

Fortunately Bias once recognised is a bias eliminated. Surely our readers can dig deep enough and establish whos credible and whos bias for themselves.

A wise man once said -  bias investors tend to develop a bias for a preferred quality. Given my track record i am biased towards quality stocks and high returns. 

Funnily enough today Macquarie issued a BUY consensus on AUT.

Euroz and Hartleys have valued it at $1.23 and $1.32 which also indicates a strong buy.


----------



## Sdajii (23 July 2010)

The blatant bias in this thread, and enthusiasm with which it is being dished out, is amazing. The misrepresentation of events from people who are obviously smart and experienced enough to that what is going on is not what they are claiming (and who should know how obvious that is) is remarkable!

Some funky chart interpretation!  I think I'll draw my own conclusions at the moment!

Good luck to all holders/sellers/buyers


----------



## condog (23 July 2010)

Found by Esteon ta.

*This is Bloomberg comment today....*

"Crude oil rose the most in almost two months as equities rallied after EBay Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. earnings beat estimates and growth accelerated in European manufacturing and services.

Oil climbed as much as 3.7 percent, the most since May 27, after the European industries unexpectedly grew at a greater rate last month, signaling fuel demand in the region will increase. Prices also gained as the dollar dropped against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities.

Everyone is focused on the same things, and that is changes in the economic growth outlook, said David Greely, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.

Crude oil for September delivery rose $2.73, or 3.6 percent, to $79.29 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached a 30-day high of $79.42 and is up 21 percent from a year ago....

We expect to see a breakout above $80 in the next couple of months, Greely said. Oil will probably trade in the $85- to-$95 range during the second half of the year. "



and from
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD9H49OP00

*Oil prices rise on stormy forecast for Gulf
By SANDY SHORE (AP) – 1 hour ago*

Oil prices advanced Thursday as energy producers kept an eye on a developing tropical storm that could move into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

At the gas pump, prices were unchanged at a national average of $2.718 for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. The price is nearly 2 cents less than it was a month ago and about 25 cents higher than a year ago.

Benchmark crude surged $2.74, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $79.30 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

and

*US crude oil jumps more than $1 on data, weather 
Reuters Africa - Robert Gibbons - ‎7 hours ago‎*NEW YORK July 22 (Reuters) - US crude oil futures rose more than $1 on Thursday as positive euro zone economic data and increased possibility of a tropical ... 

A few days ago apparently there is no evidence to support my suggestion Hurricane season generally help the oil price rise.  hmmm hmmm looky hear whats happened, as predicted, and as it does almost every year.

On the flip side i think global concerns wont hold it here for two long, but its very nice that AUT is repaying thise early wells, and going through the early cash starved growth phases with oil prices at these levels. Certainly will accellerate break even points  and temporary NPV somewhat.

The situation in Korea may also help tick energy prices a little higher for a few weeks. With Sth Korea and the USA playing war games near the border after Ntrh executed officials and sank a South Korean warship.


----------



## condog (23 July 2010)

> Originally Posted by condog
> Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).






Agentm said:


> i have no idea what you talking about here condog?  can you present some facts on this that back up what you saying
> ....
> so i had to research it and make sure it was correct.. i cant confirm most of the things your saying when i check it and examine it, can you confirm that what your stating is accurate for me please?




*Gulf of Mexico storm threat stokes oil price
By Javier Blas in London *

Published: July 22 2010 18:50 | Last updated: July 22 2010 22:20

Commodities prices recovered on Thursday to their highest level in one month, up 7.5 per cent from the low hit last month, as oil prices rallied on the back of fears about a tropical storm forming in the US Gulf of Mexico, a key oil and natural gas production area. 
......
*Hurricanes can have a big impact on commodities.* Katrina and Rita in 2005 forced widespread shutdowns of natural gas, oil production and refinery activity along the US Gulf of Mexico coast, pushing prices sharply higher.


Also as was highly predictable

Costs will rise due to new legislative requirements.

*4 Oil Firms Commit $1 Billion for Gulf Rapid-Response Plan  
New York Times - Derick E. Hingle - ‎17 hours ago‎*The emergency response plan is part of the oil industry's effort to show it can improve its safety procedures and shape the inevitable rules of conduct that ... 
  Video: Storm Nears, Ships May Evacuate Gulf Cleanup The Associated Press 
Oil giants commit $1 billion to spill response system Houston Chronicle 
Gulf oil spill: Oil companies to form emergency response system for future ... Los Angeles Times (blog) 
TopNews Singapore (press release) - Scripps News 
*all 3,962 news articles  »Email this story*


----------



## condog (23 July 2010)

Nulla 

are we seeing another bull flag . Its not a perfect flac pole, but then they dont have to be either. But the flag formation is showing a lot of resistance to falling. In a justified over supply position.

Today oil up sharply, DJIA up 202

Could be a break out day ???


----------



## condog (23 July 2010)

*Goldman: Oil Over $100 in 2011; Gold to $1,335*
56 comments  |  by: The Pragmatic Capitalist July 21, 2010 

I dont buy it, but given my neutral position i feel i should report it.



From:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/215...-2011-gold-to-1-335?source=article_sb_popular

I think the money supply could make it possible, but the second round of possible  US mortgage defaults , and global growth concerns imo wont allow this. 

But hey Goldman are smarter then I, and as Agent said recently the funds control the oil prices. So your guess is as good as mine.


----------



## condog (23 July 2010)

From the same site 

*Is Crude Oil Headed Back to $57?*
 by: Wayne A. Corbitt July 22, 2010 

With all of the hoopla surrounding the recent rally in crude oil prices, such as the excitement and bullish implications of spot crude hitting its highest price in three weeks, it is time for a bit of a reality check. With the US economy in continuing decline as evidenced by moribund housing and employment numbers, there is little reason to be a perma bull based on US demand. Those that insist on taking the bullish slant look to China as the godfather of consumption, but cracks are beginning to show in China's economic situation. Besides - does the Shanghai Composite (down 22% for the year) have the look of a world economic leader? Weakness in the Shanghai Composite has been evident since its August 2009 top:



As i said your guess is as good as mine, but for now $70+ looks fine for the short term, which is crucial for us at AUT repaying hilcorp and trying to get established with high NVP early wells.

Its certainly well below its long term average and looks more inclined to go up then down


----------



## jancha (23 July 2010)

Condog.
 I paid by bpay for the max amount of AUT shares offered.
As it's being over subscribed. One third of the amount is to be given at the discretion of the directors?
What is that supposed to mean.
Do we still recieve the third and how long does it take before you get back the balance so it can at least earn interest?
I thought today i'd see some extra AUT shares in my account this morning but zilch.


----------



## condog (23 July 2010)

jancha said:


> Condog.
> I paid by bpay for the max amount of AUT shares offered.
> As it's being over subscribed. One third of the amount is to be given at the discretion of the directors?
> What is that supposed to mean.
> ...




I didnt apply, but i think they said 

Aurora envisages that the allotment of shares under the SPP will now occur on or around Tuesday 27 July 2010.

Id expect refund cheques being posted around the same date. So expect the money cleared in your account a week later from the 27th i my guess. They tend not to drag heels on this , as its bad PR if they hold your money longer then required.


----------



## jancha (23 July 2010)

condog said:


> I didnt apply, but i think they said
> 
> Aurora envisages that the allotment of shares under the SPP will now occur on or around Tuesday 27 July 2010.
> 
> Id expect refund cheques being posted around the same date. So expect the money cleared in your account a week later from the 27th i my guess. They tend not to drag heels on this , as its bad PR if they hold your money longer then required.




Cheers Condog
Be interesting to see how many i recieve & if there's any sell down on the 27th with profit takers. 
I was half expecting that today.


----------



## mir (23 July 2010)

jancha
 "Be interesting to see how many i recieve & if there's any sell down on the 27th with profit takers. 
I was half expecting that today."

i would think most shareholders that applied for the SPP that were going to take profit would have sold by now.


----------



## 5haretrader (24 July 2010)

Late night boredom got the better of me so I had a go at charting AUT. Very much a rookie at this but I'm very bullish on this one after having drawn lines all over the place .

Heres a few points:


strong support at 66.5
June 30 candle was bullish reversal hammer (support at 74)
green pennant (higher lows, same highs) -> could breakout
blue bull flag shows converging of trading range
very dominant upwards trend
Bollinger bands are tightening in upwards movement(sorry didn't include in chart)


----------



## nulla nulla (24 July 2010)

condog said:


> View attachment 38021
> 
> 
> Nulla
> ...




Are we seeing another bull flag? No I don't see it. If anything the resistance level appears to be getting lower. I have attached two chart with this post. The first is a chart at close of business 23-07-2010:




and the second is  a three year chart (is this from their start?).




The turnover of volumes in this share has only increased in recent months. In my opinion, the timing of the capital raising appears opportunistic with volume weighted averages to determine the issue price based on recent prices. 
I am surprised that the takeup of rights was oversubscribed and I would not be surprised to see profit taking in the next few weeks/months.

I don't see the FA/TA in *aut* that would explain the price rise. In my opinion, the abscence of dividends, profit forecasts (and no basis for a price earning multiple to set a target price) make it hard to justify any long term investment. Given the current cost of money and the present global uncertainty, *aut* is not a share I would invest long term in. 

From a trading point of view, *aut* appears to be encountering strong resistance at the current level and (in  my opinion) it would be a high risk to enter at this point for a trade. Based on the historical information I would not plan an entry above the Capital Raising price of $0.75. I would be more inclined to wait and see if it did not drop back to the low $0.60's (or lower, $0.40?).


----------



## condog (24 July 2010)

5haretrader i tend to agree with your analysis. 

Nulla - they have drilled simultaneous wells since Feb 2010 and have fantastic flows to sales which are currently repaying hilcopr. Each Well is around $16-$18M NPV been added. Which fully explains the rise in sp since early 2010.

What i cant understand is why anyone paid the prices they did for AUT back in 2007 2008. Right now its worth every cent, as explained in detail by both Hartlleys and euroz reports valuing it at 1.23 and 1.32.


----------



## 5haretrader (24 July 2010)

Nulla, AUT certainly has the fundamentals to wave good bye to any share price under a dollar by years end.

The technical target to stay bullish with this would be for the share price to be at the upper green line once the shares get placed so any sell off stays within that pennant. If this stays true then I reckon we will breakout into the 90cent range.

If a selloff kicks the shareprice out of the green pennant then that blue flag I drew could turn out to be a reversal trend because the short term highs are decreasing. I think we would then be looking at hitting the 74cent support once the candles get to the pointy end of that blue flag. We don't want that do we?

So either we kick on out of this pennant into the 90s (I'm confident this is what will happen, hence my bullishness) or we retrace back down to retest 74.


----------



## 5haretrader (24 July 2010)

Note that a retrace to 74 would test the bottom line of the trend channel that I drew, so hopefully it holds or we could be looking at new trends. Hmm...


----------



## WRONG'UN (24 July 2010)

I agree with Condog and Sharetrader.
I like the "flag", particularly as it's on declining volume.
Can I add that the current setup is similar to the last pause (Mar - April) - Bollinger Band "squeeze", touch of the bottom band, resumption above the mid range line.
The jury is still out on the MACD, but we could be at a cyclical low in that indicator - there is a rough timing symmetry.

Another way of looking at this is to look at the "expectancy". If we were to buy at the current sp of 0.84, with a profit target of 1.20, a stop loss level of say 0.73, and 50/50 odds, the expectancy of the trade would be  
(1.2/0.84) x 0.5 + (0.73/0.84) x 0.5 = 1.15, which is quite OK.
What are the actual odds? - I don't know, they could well be higher - I'm sure Condog would say they are!

The following link may be of interest - the general environment may have contributed to the quiet performance of AUT recently.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton072510.html


----------



## Slipperz (24 July 2010)

Next week is going to see a big volume kick up in AUT inho.

A few profit takers from the SPP will be offloading to bargain buyers.

Overall sentiment in the US on the back of reporting season is bullish to date.

Oil and gas prices on the rise.

Once the dust from the SPP has settled I think a breakout towards the dollar is likely.

Looking forward to another weeks trading with interest.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp


----------



## nioka (24 July 2010)

Forget the charts. The fundamentals rule. The fundamentals say:

 1.A new program, fully funded for multiple drilling.
 2.Production will soon make a financial contribution as Hillcorp recover costs and surplus will be distributed to the partners.
 3.Continuous flow of results expected from current wells with results of new drilling released on a regular basis.
 4. Further upgrades from investment institutions expected on a regular basis.

 The chartists that are predicting a rise will say "I told you so". Those predicting a fall will say that one is still coming.


----------



## condog (24 July 2010)

nioka said:


> Forget the charts. The fundamentals rule. The fundamentals say:
> 
> 1.A new program, fully funded for multiple drilling.
> 2.Production will soon make a financial contribution as Hillcorp recover costs and surplus will be distributed to the partners.
> ...




I wholeheartedly agree on this, theres enough fundamentals to throw the TA out the window altogether. However, some TA folks need charts as they for some wierd reason dont use FA as well and even the TA imo says BULLISH. I was using it to prove my point.

Fundamentals on thsi baby imo will drive sp for some time to come , assuming oil price holds and global outlook remains relatively similar.


----------



## mir (24 July 2010)

nioka
& 5. reserves upgrade, should be next week.
I'm with you 100% these chartists are doing my head in especially the negative ones lol. 

Slipperz
"A few profit takers from the SPP will be offloading to bargain buyers."
why would they wait till next  week to take profit?


----------



## Slipperz (24 July 2010)

mir said:


> nioka
> & 5. reserves upgrade, should be next week.
> I'm with you 100% these chartists are doing my head in especially the negative ones lol.
> 
> ...




Uncertaintity?

Once the allocations are made and showup in the portfolio then people will make their trading decisions. Some may have a need for a quick 15% profit.

Those sophisticated types will have big holdings and there is going to be extra liquidity coming on market.

A few hundred thousand into the market will have an effect given recent volumes.


----------



## mir (24 July 2010)

Slipperz
the point I'm trying to make is, if there is a need for a  quick 15% profit  they would of sold their existing holding & have it replaced with the SPP.
"Those sophisticated types will have big holdings " so the $10000 or so they will get will be insignificant but I'm not sure if that is what you were referring too.


----------



## condog (24 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> kkr?  can you confirm where your getting all that info on its "big profits in short spaces of time" aspect please?




KKR deal with hilcorp give a sniff of what the equity funds think of the Eaglefords ability to generate huge profits.

Last year KKR paid about $350 million for a minority stake of East Resources, earning a quick profit of more than $1 billion when Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) bought most of the company's assets 11 months later. In June, KKR signed a deal with Hilcorp Energy, a closely held exploration and production company based in Houston, to develop the Eagle Ford formation southeast of San Antonio.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_29/b4187046879234.htm


----------



## Sean K (24 July 2010)

condog said:


> KKR deal with hilcorp give a sniff of what the equity funds think of the Eaglefords ability to generate huge profits.
> 
> Last year KKR paid about $350 million for a minority stake of East Resources, earning a quick profit of more than $1 billion when Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) bought most of the company's assets 11 months later.



Interesting article. Nice work from KKR, they've made some good moves over time. Obviously..

Also part of the article:



> Environmentalists have raised concerns about the impact of drilling for shale gas. And KKR's move into the field is an unconventional bet for a private equity firm that traditionally targets mature businesses with steady cash flows to use to finance takeovers. "Only time will tell whether these deals are good values," says Ellen K. Hannan, an analyst at brokerage Weeden & Co. "It is impossible to know until the fields are developed and the price of natural gas rises. If it doesn't, the companies better drill a lot of wells."


----------



## condog (25 July 2010)

Forward Cash Flow Model based on 21 wells by end of 2010

Note DYOR and seek advice as calculations may contain errors and do not guarauntee or imply future share price. They are merely my calculations. 

I feel the 150 day projections are more realistic. Note oil price and gas price are lower then actual prices to allow for cash costs and production costs.

Also 21 wells should be achieved by end of 2010 but revenue for those will lag slightly. However having said that no future value is built in for untapped wells or reserves. 

I personally would discount the 150 day sp by 25% which gives a valuation in my amatuer opinion of around $1.45 ish. Based solely on forward cash flow projections.
	

		
			
		

		
	




Click on image then maximise new window to make readable.

Allow discounts for tax and royalties etc


----------



## condog (25 July 2010)

Updated to allow for tax n royalties

plus 10% of following years cash flow revenues 

happy to make mods, its just a ballpark projection.




Using the same methodology end of 2011 comes out at $3.87 minus say 10% dilutionary effect of CR, SPP or debt = $3.48 imo  That needs discounting somewhaqt as 150 day flows wont be sustained. Allow 25% = approx which may be too harsh as ive applied it to the entire valuation and comes out at $2.61.   Imo valuation will be above this figure by end of 2011. But thats only my opinion.

Always do your own research and seek expert advice. These may contain errors and are not to be relied upon in any way.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (25 July 2010)

Those charts are all very nice and pretty but when a company posts good results don't the charts mean JACK? Surely only charts work when there are so many technical traders out there to make an impact?


----------



## condog (25 July 2010)

Condog was right and guess what hes thinking again?




Right now after good consolidation, a successfull CR and SPP, both massively over subscribed at 75c. 60+ days of consolidation establishing a massive round of new buyers entering betweeen 78c and 84c.

All the while hilcorp have continued to drill and frac some of the best acerage and wells in the entire Eagleford. All around us our neighbours and even our partners have attracted M & A attention on a truly global scale.

Oil prices have risen over 10% during this 60days, and oil futures look good at present. Hilcorp have announced an accellerated program with a 3rd rig due to arrive in 2011 and a full time frac crew.

Hartleys have valued it at $1.23
Euroz have valued it at $1.32

We have a reserve upgrade due out late this week or early the following week, which Hartleys mentioned might be upto the order or 300% upgrade.

Once again I think its a red hot buy. But DYOR and seek expert advice as I have been wrong before.

to me this is not just some garbage stock being pumped and dumped, its value increase has been supported by significant and real creation of underlying asset growth, through the drilling and fraccing of wells at $16.5M NPV per well. Like wise the discount applied to future reserves and futre wells is still painint a picture of very high risk and very low success. Clearly anyone thats watched the story unfold, knows theres risk, but also knows they now have the technology and procedures pretty well adapted to minimise that risk.  

To me and Hartleys there seems to be far too much risk still built into the sp and valuations.


----------



## condog (25 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> lol kennas, somehow i think its slipping by the keeper here..
> 
> nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?
> 
> ...




Perhaps anyone questioning the legitimate development by pipeline developers might be well advised to do some research.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/en...tion-projects-2010-06-29?reflink=MW_news_stmp



> *From Article*
> In addition, the partnership recently completed several key, previously announced projects, including the initial 34-mile segment of the east-west rich gas Eagle Ford mainline and the final leg of the 62-mile White Kitchen Lateral. As a result, Enterprise soon will be able to fill the existing 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity at its seven South Texas natural gas processing facilities.
> 
> 
> ...




The above article states current Eagleford gas production is at approx 250MMcfgpd with current pipeline capacity about to be at 1.5Billion cfgpd.

Not sure where your getting your figures from Agent, but a 5min research reveals a very different factual story to that your purporting of late.


----------



## condog (25 July 2010)

and

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ki...-109-per-unit-2010-07-21?reflink=MW_news_stmp


> -- Eagle Ford Gathering LLC, the KMP-Copano Energy joint venture that provides gathering, transportation and processing services to natural gas producers in the Eagle Ford Shale resource play in South Texas, recently entered into a long-term gas services agreement with SM Energy Company. SM Energy will commit up to 200,000 MMBtu per day of Eagle Ford Shale natural gas production over a 10-year term, and Eagle Ford Gathering will construct approximately 85 miles of 24- and 30-inch pipeline that is expected to begin service during the summer of 2011. KMP and Copano will invest approximately $137 million in phase one of the project and have committed 375,000 MMBtu per day of capacity to Eagle Ford Gathering for transportation on Kinder Morgan's intrastate pipeline and for processing at Copano's Houston Central plant.


----------



## Kremmen (26 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Often a stock will be "propped" up using fake bids to attract buyers to the listed depth.... off screen sellers will sell into these punters and the dummy bids will be removed if other sellers start getting nr them.They will continue to do this at various levels and it is a daily occurence to create a buyer stack to sell into.




Also, this may appear to be the case even when it's not. I had a buy order in on EKA recently and prices started dropping, so I moved my bid down. I ended up moving it down 3 times and bought on the lowest price of the day. Not a dummy bid ... I just see no reason to pay more than I have to.



condog said:


> Id expect refund cheques being posted around the same date.




I hope they'll just use direct deposit to our bank accounts (if entered into the registry), rather than waste a huge amount of time and money on the archaic process of sending out physical cheques and making us take them to the friggin' bank. (I emailed AUT to enquire about this, but they haven't replied.)


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

Kremmen said:


> I hope they'll just use direct deposit to our bank accounts (if entered into the registry), rather than waste a huge amount of time and money on the archaic process of sending out physical cheques and making us take them to the friggin' bank. (I emailed AUT to enquire about this, but they haven't replied.)




I emailed them and asked them to post cheques to get all you computer nerdfs off your chairs and get some exercise. lol


----------



## Agentm (26 July 2010)

condog said:


> Perhaps anyone questioning the legitimate development by pipeline developers might be well advised to do some research.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/en...tion-projects-2010-06-29?reflink=MW_news_stmp
> 
> ...




it says it will have about 600 mmcfpd capacity upon completion in 2012..  and i certainly doesnt say karnes county has got the capacity of "250MMcfgpd with current pipeline capacity about to be at 1.5Billion cfgpd" that you quoted above..  

Included in the planned construction, is an expansion of Enterprise's east-west rich gas mainline that will involve adding three additional pipeline segments totaling 168 miles. *The first phase will involve the installation of 26 miles of 24-inch diameter pipeline extending the mainline to the far western reaches of the Eagle Ford Shale.* The remaining 142 miles, to be built in two segments, will be comprised of 30-inch and 36-inch diameter pipelines that will serve the eastern portion of the Eagle Ford Shale. *Upon completion, the Eagle Ford Shale rich gas mainline system and associated laterals will consist of approximately 300 miles of pipelines representing gathering and transportation capacity of more than 600 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). *



where does it say it will service hilcorp, and when has the jvp ever announced it will use that pipeline service? nor have they ever advised to what capacity they have had access to.. 

i certainly was asked not to gloss too much on that point.. but lets look at it anyway..

i am aware of eog and conoco having a deal going with a pipeline company which has set up office in karnes county..

you mention the oil pipeline, which is at capacity, will allow a few to have access to it.. so the for the likes of eog, with a big need to get the oil out into a  pipeline, if they indeed have got access then that is a relief

i see absolute no evidence that hilcorp has any ability to connect to anything they develop.. but the article does say this

"*The east end of Eagle Ford mainline will terminate at a new natural gas complex Enterprise plans to build that will feature multiple processing trains designed for deep ethane recovery and production of mixed NGLs in excess of 60,000 barrels per day (BPD)*. *Following completion of these projects, which is expected in early 2012,* Enterprise's Texas assets will have the capability to gather, transport and process almost 2.5 Bcf/d of natural gas and produce more than 150,000 BPD of NGLs." 


so in 2012 there will be a lot more service available for gas transportation to those clients they will service..  whom ever they are..


----------



## Joe Blow (26 July 2010)

It looks like I need to remind everyone participating in this thread again: If you disagree with someone's analysis then *attack the analysis, not them personally*.


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

You have misinterpreted me as expected.

Current production is 250mmcfgpd

Enterprise have just completed pipelines with capacity at 1.5B cfgpd.

I cant keep up agent, One minute your spruking Hartlesy reports up as overley conservative and you yourself said ADI was worth $1 plus, then next you are telling us Hartleys are overvaluing AUT and spruking to unsuspecting clients.  Which way is it Agent. I cant follow or keep up with your logic.

One minute your telling us the Eagleford and the JVP is the best thing since sliced bread, the next your telling us hilcorp have no access to pipelines. 

Im just trying to follow your logic.


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

Enterprise announced an expansion of its network of crude oil and natural gas assets in South Texas as part of a letter of intent (LOI) signed with a major Eagle Ford Shale producer. According to the LOI, Enterprise would construct a 140-mile crude oil pipeline originating in *Karnes County*, Texas and connecting to the partnership's existing crude oil system in Austin County, Texas supported by a long-term transportation agreement. Enterprise is in discussions with a number of other producers to provide crude oil transportation services through additional connections to the pipeline. When completed, Enterprise's crude oil pipeline system will provide access to the refining markets in the Houston area, as well as the major storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma through the Enterprise-operated Seaway pipeline.

The capacity of the new crude oil pipeline will be sized to serve multiple producers as output in the Eagle Ford Shale region continues to increase. In addition to the pipeline infrastructure, the partnership is also constructing central delivery points in three locations along the new pipeline to receive crude oil from gathering lines and trucks. Two of the delivery points will be located in *Karnes County*, Texas, while the third will be built in Gonzales County, Texas. This crude oil pipeline expansion project is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2011.


----------



## lemontree (26 July 2010)

condog said:


> You have misinterpreted me as expected.
> 
> Current production is 250mmcfgpd
> 
> ...




Refute agentm's analysis as much as you want on the forums, but i think its time you take your little bicker with him to private messages. Joe just issued a second warning just before your post!


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

April 2007 - 


Agentm said:


> they have already told the market they have commenced negotiations on the pipeline access, so you cant get any more bullish than that.




May 2010 - 


Agentm said:


> i agree rambling on your point on pipeline companies
> 
> we know there is a pipeline company that recently set up offices in karnes county, and local talk is that they are not there for the cheap rent..
> 
> ...






			
				Agentm said:
			
		

> his is the new kennedy pipeline being put in as of yesterday, i am sure it already had one before..
> 
> in line with expectations (mine) the kennedy well continues to produce to sales.
> 
> ...





Then Todays post, i cant follow your logic agent, cant find where your getting this information, can you please confirm what your saying is true and provide some reference material?


----------



## nunthewiser (26 July 2010)

condog said:


> You have misinterpreted me as expected.
> 
> I cant keep up agent, One minute your spruking Hartlesy reports up as overley conservative and you yourself said ADI was worth $1 plus, then next you are telling us Hartleys are overvaluing AUT and spruking to unsuspecting clients.  Which way is it Agent. I cant follow or keep up with your logic.
> 
> .






lemontree said:


> Refute agentm's analysis as much as you want on the forums, but i think its time you take your little bicker with him to private messages. Joe just issued a second warning just before your post!




TOTALLY AGREE!
these personal attacks are getting pathetic.

Agent M,s posts are highly informative and give a much needed view on various aspects on AUT that tend to be ignored or berated by others .

Mind you this whole thread been like that .. post an alternative viewpoint and suffer the wrath of personal attacks or mockery of your analysis.

I for one prefer to hear both sides to a story without all the niggling and mockery in between.

speaking of which ...... still no intrest in AUT on any volumes of note .... currently looks like a game of pass the parcel to my uninformed eye 

Nulla ... see that 3 year chart you posted.... see the formation formed? sure looks like a bewt top formed but i could be looking at it wrong.


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

AUT announcment out re meeting 

All three motions passed. 

Looking forward to T3, Kowalick and Reserves upgrade announcments.

Value being added is the most important thing.


----------



## nulla nulla (26 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Nulla ... see that 3 year chart you posted.... see the formation formed? sure looks like a bewt top formed but i could be looking at it wrong.




Yup, a bubble forming even, and on an up day like today AUT finished on....$0.84. I'll wait just a little bit longer. 
Still struggling to break above the resistance levels and the posts are starting to pre-empt the impact of (hopefully) further positive press releases. 
At some stage the market is going to want to see financial reports that reflect actual production volumes, sales and profits.


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> At some stage the market is going to want to see financial reports that reflect actual production volumes, sales and profits.




Nulla nulla nulla, see this is why too much TA is dangerous. If you and nun did thier research you would know exactly when and which finacial statement to expect to see income flowing from which wells.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 July 2010)

condog said:


> Nulla nulla nulla, see this is why too much TA is dangerous. If *you and nun *did thier research you would know exactly when and which finacial statement to expect to see income flowing from which wells.




 I have not mentioned fundamentals here NOR do i care about them .

Since my posting here on this thread i have posted TECHNICAL and VOLUME analysis only .

please get your facts right if you want to imply that i have not researched AUT, i actually feel that it was another personal attack directed at me but i will let it slide this time

thankyou.


----------



## le donk (26 July 2010)

Wish i knew how to work this room Gero, got me beat so far, Anyways.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,


----------



## nioka (26 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> i actually feel that it was another personal attack directed at me but i will let it slide this time
> .




Personal attack???? I'm getting annoyed when there is someone getting their methods and posts queried that they take it as a personal attack. I attack the NOTION that anyone could have faith in buying and selling AUT based on the technicals when the fundamentals have made drastic changes, regardless of WHO said what.
 Cant we have an active debate on the difference of opinion, a debate on how we see the stock, a debate on whether or not we see a price fall or a price hike, a debate on whether or not there is or is not a pipeline for delivery of the gas and oil, or ask someone to justify a post or whether or not the sky is about to fall in without it being taken as PERSONAL.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 July 2010)

nioka said:


> Personal attack???? I'm getting annoyed when there is someone getting their methods and posts queried that they take it as a personal attack. I attack the NOTION that anyone could have faith in buying and selling AUT based on the technicals when the fundamentals have made drastic changes, regardless of WHO said what.
> Cant we have an active debate on the difference of opinion, a debate on how we see the stock, a debate on whether or not we see a price fall or a price hike, a debate on whether or not there is or is not a pipeline for delivery of the gas and oil, or ask someone to justify a post or whether or not the sky is about to fall in without it being taken as PERSONAL.




Um excuse me nioka but others here have been more than happy to report posts due to every letter of the law yet CONSTANTLY attack posters on a PERSONAL basis rather than the actual argument .... I have not mentioned fundamentals here yet was attacked for not researching??? whats the go with that .my name needent have entered the equation but because he obviously has a PERSONAL problem with me it did.

anyhow my tech analysis still stands so  far and PERSONALLY couldnt give a hoot if everyone here is against TECH anlaysis when it comes to their holds BUT my opinion wthout being attacked is still valid 

thankyou


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

Nun to set the record straight

Yes i reported 1, yes 1 of Nuns posts, where he claimed to have got advice from a broker called - his previous username. 

Why because it was misleading and unethical. 

So nun lets move on as nokia suggests

Nun it was not a personal attack, im questioning your methodology of using purely technical analysis on a stock that to this point in time has had limited traders, limited technical trends and has been fundamentally news driven.

Im questioning how you and nulla can possibly predict prices based on little to no understanding of the fundmentals of what is clearly a fundamental news driven stock.

When you make predicitions of 72c during a period of massivelyu over subscribed CR and then SPP at 75c, it just to me isnt logical. Why would it make sense for the price to drop to 72c when clearly mega people want it at 75c, when mega people bought at 78c to 84c over the last 60 days, when mega value has been added and continues to be added to the company, when oil prices have risne over 10% since Agent was claiming the where falling. 

Nullas niavity on this stock was highlighted by his lack of understanding about cash flow in his post above. If he knew about the farmin arrangments he would clearly know their is a repayment period for hilcopr which is fast approaching a csh flow positive position. This period was always stated as Q4 2010.

Despite all the predictions the sky hasnt fallen in, AUT is still a fantastic stock with 2 rigs continmually drilling, fraccing occuring, soon to be cash flow positive, no debt, plenty of cash for its forward drilling program, two analystis with valuations almost 50% above current sp.

All looks great i must say myself.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 July 2010)

condog said:


> *Nun to set the record straight
> 
> Yes i reported 1, yes 1 of Nuns posts, where he claimed to have got advice from a broker called - his previous username.
> 
> ...




To set the record properly straight . at NO point did i mention a broker .... i take offence to this constant lie that i did.

i am happy to move on if you stop these personal attacks on various posters here that disagree with your " sure thing " postings.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and i have pointed out technical targets, support , resistance , fibonacci, trendlines, VOLUMES. it IS a valid method of analysis and used by many ppl around the world.

if you guys dont understand it thats fine , but please stop slagging off the opinions of those that do .

Moved on now and happy to post my TECHNICAL viewpoints on this stock as it arises.

Thankyou


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

Nun i apologise if you did not use the word broker, but you impliesd it was some sort of expert freind, which was clearly dishonest and misleading as when i researched the name you gave it was your old username.

Yes technical analysis is widely known and used, no one at all is disputing that whatsoever.

But you took offence when you gave technical analysis we regarded as not having sufficient reason or explanation to make a big price call. 

By all means post technical analysis, but be prepared to have it judged without thinking we are personally attacking you.

I post relentless volumes of calculations that are questioned by many on here and i dont resort to name calling to resolve it.

Go back you will see many have stated this is overly optimistic or pesimistic and we have had amicable discussions about the stock.

So please ddo continue posting, but if making huge price calls expect significant cross examination the same as i do when im apparently being optimistic.

Despite all the predictions AUT is still a fantastic stock with 2 rigs continmually drilling, fraccing occuring, soon to be cash flow positive, no debt, plenty of cash for its forward drilling program, two analystis with valuations almost 50% above current sp.

All looks great i must say myself.


----------



## subasurf (26 July 2010)

So what are we discussing here, AUT or a petty playground dispute between a couple of "adults"?

It's amazing when you look back at the pages for this thread and see just how littered it is with absolutely blatant personal attacks and petty little jabs. 

I feel like I'm at a nail salon not a web forum for traders. For the love of God, please take your little petty issues to PM. The actual posts regarding AUT have been great, from everyone and has been a enjoyable and informative read. It's fantastic to see multiple conflicting views on a stock...just keep them professional.


----------



## condog (26 July 2010)

subasurf said:


> So what are we discussing here, AUT or a petty playground dispute between a couple of "adults"?
> 
> It's amazing when you look back at the pages for this thread and see just how littered it is with absolutely blatant personal attacks and petty little jabs.
> 
> I feel like I'm at a nail salon not a web forum for traders. For the love of God, please take your little petty issues to PM. The actual posts regarding AUT have been great, from everyone and has been a enjoyable and informative read. It's fantastic to see multiple conflicting views on a stock...just keep them professional.




If you read through the rubbish you will also see theres some of the most comprehensive fundamental analysis on the entire forum in here as well. I suggest you focus on that while having the hair and nails done.


----------



## Agentm (26 July 2010)

pioneer has their partner in place.. 

NEW DELHI, Jun 26, 2010 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) --

India's Reliance Industries
(BSE:500325) on Thursday said it will pay US$1.3 billion to acquire 45 per cent stake in Pioneer Natural Resources' shale gas assets south of Texas -- its second purchase in the US in three months.

RIL will pay US$1.315 billion to Pioneer and its partner Newpek LLC to get 45 per cent of about 263,000 net acres of Eagle Ford Shale, the company said in a statement.

The acreage in south of Texas has 10 trillion cubic feet of resource potential, according to Pioneer, which will continue to be operator at the property.

Shale gas is natural gas stored in organic-rich sedimentary rocks. It is considered an unconventional source as the gas may be attached to or "absorbed" onto organic matter.

The Eagle Ford Shale currently produces 28 million cubic feet per day of gas from five wells and Pioneer believes the acreage can support drilling of over 1,750 wells.

RIL said it will pay US$263 million up front and fund US$1.1 billion of Pioneer and Newpek LLC's future drilling costs.

The deferred payment will be made over four years.


lol subasurf.. nice post..  despite the best efforts of joe, they aint listening..

imho the thread will probably be closed down.. what choice has he been given?


----------



## Agentm (26 July 2010)

Submitted 07/02/2010 Approved 07/05/2010  	 698511   	 255-31698   	 HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY (386310)   	 MAY UNIT   	 1H    	 02   	 KARNES   	 Horizontal   	 New Drill   	 -   	 13500   	 Approved 

Submitted 07/09/2010 Approved 07/12/2010 	698753  	255-31702  	HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY (386310)  	PATINO UNIT 	1H   	02  	KARNES  	Horizontal  	New Drill  	-  	13500  	Approved 

Submitted 07/21/2010 	699372  	255-31709  	HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY (386310)  	LUNA UNIT 	1H   	02  	KARNES  	Horizontal  	New Drill  	-  	13500  	Mapping 

not much discussion on the three new permits, but i am sure they will be discussed if a second rig arrives on the scene

plenty of news to come for aut, the reserves upgrade.. and that will be the right moment to unload the 46 mill shares waiting for a new home..

whether the brokers can push it hard enough and get the volumes through and how far the sp will migrate up or down as a result is all unknown unknowns.. the likes of hartleys has been touting big numbers for the market to get excited about, so the opportunity for aut to fly is absolute, you can throw your charts out when it gets down to reserves upgrades..

imho it doesnt matter what fanciful upside you see, it will all be driven by how many buyers can be attracted to the share when you start feeding the market with upgrades.. and the opportunity for the sophisticated investors to unload will not be missed. thats what they invested for. so they will be all over each other when the next news is released..  the real question is, can the news generate turnover more than the cap raising,  then your likely to be trending into positive territory..  this year aut turned over 84 million share, this month 13 mill  shares...  so its possible that 46 mill can be turned over on some thumping news stops.. but it better be brilliant..

as with all posts here.. this is all imho, and dyor,, and please show all forum users respect and courtesy.. posting this does not mean one person is right or wrong, unfortunately this forum has degraded  to a point where one sole member makes its not possible to have an opinion..  so let this post just be post, an opinion, and respect shown to asf  members..   imho the faster that is learned the less likely joe will actually shut this thread down, which imho he should have done some time ago..

good luck to the buyers and best of luck to the sophisticated investors about to exit..


----------



## 5haretrader (26 July 2010)

condog said:


> _If you read through the rubbish..._




To be honest its a bit unfortunate that for such a great time in this stock's history, everyone has jammed up the AUT thread with rubbish that has to be _read through_.

The _EGO_empire oil and gas forum is somewhere else, lets keep the talk to AUT and not 'told-ya-so' tales


----------



## Sdajii (27 July 2010)

subasurf said:


> So what are we discussing here, AUT or a petty playground dispute between a couple of "adults"?
> 
> It's amazing when you look back at the pages for this thread and see just how littered it is with absolutely blatant personal attacks and petty little jabs.




I see very few actual personal attacks, but a lot of sooking from people who claim to have been "attacked" when someone has quite appropriately questioned what they said. It's a personal attack to say "You're an idiot" but not to say "I think you are wrong" or "I believe your argument is flawed/irrelevant"

I don't particularly care if there are personal attacks (not that there have been many at all) or whinging (which is good, because there has been a heap of it), as long as the goodies are still in the thread to pick through.

It seems quite silly to be looking at charts at the moment without considering the events. AUT is at such a significant point in its development, it is going to move according to where the company is going, which is going to be reasonably independent of the market trends, and very independent of what charting predicts. If you're a charter/trend follower, ignore AUT and go to BHP or a bank or something.

Condog: I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but can't understand why you are so desperate to convince people of it. Being right is enough, you've said your piece, people can either take it or leave it. You won't convince the charters, and the people who are lying won't stop lying, and even if you actually could make them acknowledge that you're right, it wouldn't make you any more right. Then again, if you're wrong, better not to be so loud about it. No point jumping up and down too much when you've already said what you have to say, just say it and let people accept or reject it.


----------



## nulla nulla (27 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Yup, a bubble forming even, and on an up day like today AUT finished on....$0.84. I'll wait just a little bit longer.
> Still struggling to break above the resistance levels and the posts are starting to pre-empt the impact of (hopefully) further positive press releases.
> At some stage the market is going to want to see financial reports that reflect *actual* production volumes, sales and profits.






condog said:


> Nulla nulla nulla, see this is why too much TA is dangerous. If you and nun did thier research you would know exactly when and which finacial statement to expect to see income flowing from which wells.




You missed the point. At some stage the market will want to see *actual* financial reports of production volumes, sales and profits. Not statements of "expected" production volumes, sales and profits.


----------



## condog (27 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> You missed the point. At some stage the market will want to see *actual* financial reports of production volumes, sales and profits. Not statements of "expected" production volumes, sales and profits.




Nulla true. But you cant drill wells faster then you can drill them. They take time and its the nature of the business in this stage. All investors understand that. Anyone who has invested surely knows Q4 is the dat and exactly why.

Accurate well flows are available on both the TRRC and ASX, both of which have heavy penalties for publishing false information. 

Q4 financials will include cash flows post repayment of hilcorps drilling costs, as per the farmin agreement. If anything due to the fantastic pace of hilcorp, the successful CR and SPP, the accellerated program and the results of Morgan, Ranch and the Turnbulls, repayment would be ahead of schedule.


----------



## condog (27 July 2010)

*RIL on the lookout for two more US Shale Acquisitions*

Extract from long article
http://www.ensec.org/index.php?opti...ty&catid=108:energysecuritycontent&Itemid=365

India's unconventional gas play 

Apart from the discoveries of conventional gas, Indian companies are also excited about developments in unconventional (shale) gas.  In April 2010, RIL entered into a joint venture with the US-based Atlas Energy, Inc. under which RIL acquired a 40 percent interest in Atlas’ core Marcellus Shale acreage position in Pennsylvania, US.  Recently there are reports that the company has acquired a 45 percent stake in the Eagle Ford shale gas field in Texas, which is owned by Pioneer Natural Resources Co. *The company is looking for two more shale gas acquisitions in the US. *


----------



## condog (27 July 2010)

> *Lucas Energy Announces Completion of Gescheidle No.1 Well *
> HOUSTON, Jul 26, 2010 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Lucas Energy, Inc. /quotes/comstock/14*!lei/quotes/nls/lei (LEI 2.20, -0.04, -1.75%) an independent oil and gas company (the "Company") based in Houston, Texas, today announced that the Company has completed Gescheidle No.1 well on May 11, 2010. The well is a plug back of a lateral in the Austin Chalk formation, and a new straight hole completion in the Buda formation. The well tested 254 BOPD and 130 BWPD flowing. The water is load water from the stimulation treatment.
> 
> William A. Sawyer, President and CEO of Lucas Energy, said, "The Gescheidle No.1 well is one of our best recompletion producers to date. Further, this well shows good potential in the Eagle Ford formation on the well logs run during the recompletion." For more information on this and other activities of the Company, see the Lucas Energy web site www.lucasenergy.com.




Lucas must be crying tears of blood when they read about AUT's results if they think that is newsworthy. Admitedly its in the chalks not the shale. And does show the futre value of the chalks to get a second run from each of these wells.


----------



## condog (27 July 2010)

With full respect for the deceased and thier families the following is relevant to AUT and onshore players. As it highlights what i was trying to say several weeks ago. The regulatory machine will respond by wrapping offshore drilling in the gulf in additional expenses and red tape, making onshore economics far better. This in turn as well as the emergency response units and extra safety costs will drive up off shore costs.  

*2ND US House Leaders Propose Lifting Liability Limits On Oil Cos
First Published Tuesday, 27 July 2010 02:40 am -  © 2010 Dow Jones *
(Updates to include additional details on bill proposals.) 
By Tennille Tracy and Siobhan Hughes 
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. House Democrats unveiled a bill Monday that would eliminate the cap on damage claims that BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) and other oil companies would have to pay for spills such as the one in the Gulf of Mexico, setting the stage for a vote Friday on the first chamber-wide response to the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history. 
Under the bill, introduced by Rep. Nick Rahall, a West Virginia Democrat who chairs the U.S. House Committee on Natural Resources, offshore companies will be responsible for 100% of damages and cleanup costs caused by spills for which they are responsible. 
The bill also prohibits the federal government from granting new drilling permits to companies that have violated safety or environmental laws within the last seven years, or suffered more than 10 fatalities at one of its production or development facilities. 
There were 11 people who died when the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April.


----------



## condog (27 July 2010)

*China gas study finds need to boost imports*

http://www.ogj.com/index/article-di...cs-markets/2010/07/china-gas_study_finds.html
Jul 26, 2010 
Marilyn Radler 
OGJ Senior Editor-Economics 

HOUSTON, July 26 -- China’s unconventional gas production will climb sharply to 2030 to help meet the country’s growing demand for gas, but China will have to boost its imports over the next decade, says a study by Wood Mackenzie. 

Although conventional gas supply in China will continue to grow, it cannot keep pace with future demand during this decade, and China will need to secure additional volumes of imported gas in the form of both LNG and piped gas through 2020, the study says. 

WoodMac forecasts that China’s demand for LNG in 2020 will be 46 million tonnes/year, up from its previous forecast of 31 million tpy.

and 
*China's LNG Demand Forecast for 2020 Raised by 48%, Wood Mackenzie Says*
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...or-2020-raised-by-48-wood-mackenzie-says.html

Also worth a read

*Gas demand rises even as India loses out on cheap LNG*
http://www.business-standard.com/in...ises-even-as-india-loses-outcheap-lng/402615/

*Oil Supplies Falling to Four-Month Low in Survey on Storm: Energy Markets*
U.S. crude oil inventories probably fell to a four-month low last week as imports declined and Tropical Storm Bonnie disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico, a Bloomberg News survey showed. 

Stockpiles fell 1.75 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, in the seven days ended July 23 from 353.5 million the week earlier, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow. The last time supplies were so low was March 19, when prices averaged $81.46 a barrel. 

Producers evacuated 15 rigs and 106 production platforms in anticipation of Bonnie, idling 52 percent of U.S. Gulf oil output, according to according to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement. The storm dissipated over the Gulf on July 24 without making landfall in the oil-producing region. About 27 percent of production remained shut-in yesterday. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...th-low-in-survey-on-storm-energy-markets.html

*Oil Trades Near 11-Week High; Goldman Says Crude Too Cheap*
By Grant Smith - Jul 27, 2010 8:21 PM GMT+1000 Tue Jul 27 10:21:06 UTC 2010

Crude oil traded near an 11-week high in New York as equity markets recovered and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said prices are too cheap. 

Oil traded at about $79 a barrel before a government report due tomorrow, which analysts forecast will show that fuel supplies increased last week in the U.S. Goldman Sachs said futures prices are “significantly” below the level warranted by fundamentals, offering hedging opportunities for this year and next. 

“We expect an average of $92 next year, so on a longer- term horizon prices are too cheap, but not far too cheap,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG in Vienna. “Crude faces some resistance around $80 as although fundamentals are slowly improving they’re not yet strong enough.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-as-equity-gains-compete-with-stockpiles.html


----------



## Slipperz (27 July 2010)

Any predictions for AUT shareprice tomorrow Condog or shall we leave it to beaver?


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Any predictions for AUT shareprice tomorrow Condog or shall we leave it to beaver?



condog is a longer term fundamentalist, does it matter?

I'm always curious about funamental valuists commentating on every movement of a stock intraday. Or, around abouts.

It doesn't add up.

Is that you condog?

A funadmentalist who disregards short term price action?

Or a what?


----------



## condog (28 July 2010)

I do both. On AUT im absolute fundamentalist, couldnt care less what tommorrow brings as i see the value underpinning it and driving price for some time.

But i also do my fair share of trading and short term analysis on other stocks. Funnily though i tend to trade and do TA on stocks that have good FA. But not on AUt, its imo a poor stock to trade, too tightly held, low volatility and to me a better buy and hold.

I think we are still seeing some selling pressure meeting the new buyers. That cant last forever, and when it dispates, imo we are likely to see a temporary sharper rise to a new level then we would have seen without the SPP or CR.

Interestingly it looks like the reduced selling pressure might almost correspond with the reserves upgrade?? The consolidation we have been and are seeing imo is cause imo by that trickle of sellers meeting demand.

Honestly the reserves upgrade is a huge unknown. If they come out with a 300% upgrade as Hartelys suggests, it will be interesting to see, just how much and how suddenly that affects share price. Certainly both broker reports will have to be re-calculated significantly as that massively affects the underlying assets on the balance sheet for anyone using reserves to value the stock.

Likewise any funds or big players that dont like speculating or predicting future values on projected cash flows, will have a sudden rise in value. So it could bring in a whole host of new buyers at a much higher platform. Its a bit of an unknown as its taking AUT into a new phase if it is a very significant upgrade.

these days with brokers and institutional traders / investors being "allegedly more accountable" in some of the firms thay have to justify each purchase and having a large addition to the balance sheet can be a very strong buy trigger if they are watching AUT closely.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

This combined with what looks like a bullish outlook on oil from my post above, and RIL looking for two more acquisitions, things are looking bright at present imo.


----------



## condog (28 July 2010)

*North American Shales - the "hot" new E&P Play*
July 27, 2010

http://www.glgroup.com/News/North-American-Shales---the--hot--new-EP-Play-49718.html

*Oil Service Pricing On The Move *
Posted: Jul 27, 2010 
......This activity was led by continued good economics in many basins, or drilling by many operators to hold acreage before leases expire. This absorption of capacity has led to price increases that vary by product line and by basin, with liquids rich plays seeing the most cost pressure.........
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stoc...cing-On-The-Move-COG-NFX-HAL-WFT-SLB0727.aspx

*EOG Resources: Hedge the Negative, Invest in the Positive*
 by: Kurt Wulff July 27, 2010 

*Believing that a powerful stock market trend may be developing for independent natural gas and oil production companies in 2011-2012, *we raise estimated Net Present Value (NPV) for buy-recommended EOG Resources (EOG) to $120 a share from $92. An impressive resource position in an oil prone zone of the Eagle Ford Shale of Texas helps justify a $7 billion increase in NPV split $5 billion in oil and $2 billion in natural gas. *An active trend in large companies acquiring or joint-venturing with smaller producers alerts us to hidden value in unproven acreage*. We saw similar signs exactly 32 years ago when we completed an analysis that placed acquisition values at 100% of future revenue, not discounted cash flow, from proven reserves. That surprising finding caught the early stages of a renewed cycle of resource appreciation. *Those signs occurred in a backdrop of relatively gloomy economic and political expectations, similar to today.*

Article continues - worth a read
Also mentions temporary dip in oil price.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216418-eog-resources-hedge-the-negative-invest-in-the-positive


----------



## condog (28 July 2010)

Recently Agent you speculated on here about AUT/hilcorp not having the ability to get rid of dry gas and pipeline capacities.


Agentm said:


> for me, i see oil pipeline companies not really driving hard into the region for a long time, so where is all the gas going to go?
> 
> pipelines are at capacity in the region.. and you cant just flare the gas off



Well i questioned Jon Stewart cEO of AUT

here is the part of his response that related to that question word for word.



> With regard to your question, in short the speculation is nonsense. Field gas production continues to be exported directly to sales via pipelines that cross our acreage. Our Operator is advanced in plans and arrangements for field development including processing and transport of significantly increasing gas and liquids production. We will detail development activities as and when we consider it appropriate under our obligations to shareholders and our partners.


----------



## condog (28 July 2010)

Energy Report - 22 July 2010 -  
RSS Feeds RELATED ARTICLES

Free Preview

Why China is buying into North American shale gas
North America's shale-gas companies have two things China wants: expertise and LNG

CHINA wants more gas. North America has plenty of it. Chinese firms have cash. Drillers in North America need it. Those fundamentals, similar to the ones that have taken Chinese firms across the world in search of oil supplies, could transform the North American energy landscape.

The unconventional-oil sector offers a template for how this will happen. Rebuffed in 2005, when the US government blocked China National Offshore Oil Corporation's offer to buy Unocal (Chevron stepped in with a smaller, but more politically acceptable offer to buy the company), China's state-owned companies have since then steadily built up a position in the oil sands, soon to be the US' most important source of oil.

There, wariness of Chinese investors has switched to enthusiasm. Chinese investment has buoyed the oil sands, helping developers emerge from the global recession – and an oil-price collapse in 2008 ...

http://www.petroleum-economist.com/default.asp?Page=14&PUB=46&SID=726450&ISS=25655


----------



## fflintoff (28 July 2010)

condog said:


> Recently Agent you speculated on here about AUT/hilcorp not having the ability to get rid of dry gas and pipeline capacities.
> 
> Well i questioned Jon Stewart cEO of AUT
> 
> here is the part of his response that related to that question word for word.




Quote:
With regard to your question, in short the speculation is nonsense. Field gas production continues to be exported directly to sales via pipelines that cross our acreage. Our Operator is advanced in plans and arrangements for field development including processing and transport of significantly increasing gas and liquids production. We will detail development activities as and when we consider it appropriate under our obligations to shareholders and our partners.

Condog,
Thank you for your post which is very reassuring & squashes these unfounded rumours. As Tom Kelly of EME has mentioned several times never believe any of these type of posts on bulletin boards & always rely on company statements.


----------



## nioka (28 July 2010)

fflintoff said:


> . As Tom Kelly of EME has mentioned several times never believe any of these type of posts on bulletin boards & always rely on company statements.




The problem with that proposition is the lack of information released by companies to shareholders. It leaves us to second guess. A lot of forums do come up with the news ahead of company announcements. It becomes a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff.


----------



## adobee (28 July 2010)

nioka said:


> The problem with that proposition is the lack of information released by companies to shareholders. It leaves us to second guess. A lot of forums do come up with the news ahead of company announcements. It becomes a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff.




I think this is especially the case the in Eagleford and with Hillcorp ADI & AUT etc...  They seem to have a motto loose lips sink ships.. 60% of the info in the market place seems to be from locals rather than the company ..


----------



## condog (28 July 2010)

adobee said:


> I think this is especially the case the in Eagleford and with Hillcorp ADI & AUT etc...  They seem to have a motto loose lips sink ships.. 60% of the info in the market place seems to be from locals rather than the company ..




I think that certainly used to be the case under TCEI.... but I wouldnt agree its still the case....obviously wede all like to know every intricate detail as it all happens, but that aint gunna happen. 

I think its been pretty damn good of late

Drill frac ips then 30 and 60 dayers, thats all we really need imo.


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

Checked the numbers traded yesterday

 21,597,296 	May
 18,417,802 	June
 13,557,165 	July   so far with 2 days left at say 3-400K each.

So no sell offs as suggested, just trading narrowly rather then the usual seller drought of previous months.  Nice  tight bollingers ready to break uwards on news.

From now to end of next week look for news on T3, spud news and the biggy, reserves upgrade.


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

Kowalick being done as we speak, T3 being fracced? awaiting results

May Unit, Patino Unit and Luna Unit approved and waiting to go.


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

From AZZ quarterly

4. Average Oil Price Received Up 5%.
5. Average Gas Price Received Up 21%.

Encouraging, given they are serving the same area. Especially the gas price up nicely.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 July 2010)

Will try and post a chart later explaining what im seeing but its not rocket science to place a chart and map this sideways moves volumes. Intresting the sell day vols to the rest of the range, intresting to map the vwap over this period also.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (29 July 2010)

AUT down $0.02 so far today.  More sellers today than buyers.
"31 buyers for 533,021 units	35 sellers for 717,549 units"


----------



## subasurf (29 July 2010)

Yeah my patience is wearing very thin. I almost sold last week to top up my CVN shares. Now I'm really wishing I had.

At the moment AUT is just dead money. Still, I'll hold out for the possible break.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 July 2010)

subasurf said:


> Yeah my patience is wearing very thin. I almost sold last week to top up my CVN shares. Now I'm really wishing I had.
> 
> At the moment AUT is just dead money. Still, I'll hold out for the possible break.




To be fair.

There is no sell signals currently as YET either . the stock rremains in a tight channel with no break either side ....... IF already a holder there is no rule broken yet ..... IF a buyer there is no entry signal yet.....

Limbo  land until a direction is given.

MY previous targets given are still  current but as a trader i would be more than happy to enter on a break north.

Volumes and tech analysis as posted a while back indictae to ME that i think a break south is the more probable to ME but it does not mean that if one was holding they should sell or  be concerned until the rules of the channel are actually broken.


----------



## subasurf (29 July 2010)

Very well put 
I couldn't agree more. Even though I think AUT is a solid investment in the long term, I can now only see it going down before it heads up in any way significant. Unless of course they get a positive announcement out soon.

Limbo land is losing me money in the fact that I could be making money off the capital elsewhere...or lose it, I suppose. My target sell price for AUT is $1 which I don't think will arrive any time soon.

I'll be thinking it over heavily on the weekend. Most likely I'll dump it. ALL my other stocks are moving up except AUT. Although I did buy in at a bad time (86 cents).


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

Nun well put 

except the break south bit,  we dont know that and fundamentally its far more likely to break north afte 60+ days in limbo land consolidating, all the while with value being added.

There is potentially very significant news any day now with the reserve upgrade, and the effect of that is ???? 

If anything the ADI sale held AUT back, it rocketed early but then got caught up for a while on its well established ratio and effectively didnt put on the price gains for T1, T2 .  It so far still hasnt and also hasnt put on the tiny gains for the others lodgment or the accellerated drilling program on a fundamental basis. 

similarly it hasnt put on the 20% gas price gains or 5% oil gains, which all help the repayment of hilcorp even faster.

So yeh its frustrating for all, but remember stocks have a good habit of chasing value. Thats how and why AUT EKA and ADI gained so much thos year. And has the drilling fraccing and good results stopped? No.

In fact its only got better, with stronger results and an accelerated fully funded program.

Its your money do as you will, play smart, make good decisions, but sometimes you gotta ignore the noise. 

Right now as nun says its sitting in a tight channel. Ready for a break out, the bollengers are tighter and every day it stays here it looks cheaper to its recent growth trendlines since hilcorp took over.

On the fundamental side of the coin all is better then good imo.


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

My trendline, takes into account significnat circumstance change when hilcorp took over in late march early april start of new drilling times and competent operator.

Lots of touches indicates appropriately placed trendline.

Tight bollingers indicates likely breakout. imo upwards on the back of good news. but thats opinion.

I still think its driven by news and fundamentals, but given some are technial focused this is my technical take on it as of today.

Red line is the simple moving average.  Relative strength index is just under 50. MACD are tight and low which is an up indicator. Stochastics are low tight and crissy crossy another good sign for an up trend to start. Momentum is at 50, not indicating either. Money flow index is about 40 showing marginally over sold.

But to mee the best indicators are very tight bollingers and excellent underlying fundamentals after a long and somewhat frustrating consolidation and below its trendline with lots of touches.

Understandable why its there on the back of CR and SPP, but none the less, sooner or later it should catch value again imo.


Looking forward to the reserve upgrade next week.


----------



## mir (29 July 2010)

this is my fundamental take on things,the IP rates are no longer that important we know what flows we can get without restricting the choke,  morgan 2046 b/d & 5.16 mmcf/d ,it's all about ultimate recovery  rancho turnbull 1,2&3  all restricted  choke.it will be interesting to see when production at rancho will be greater than morgan ,my guess is 90 days.AUT is now in field development  so the more wells drilled the better(about 650 wells to be drilled) & that's happening with hilcorp with little risk.the thing I'm still waiting for is the reserves upgrade as this should re-rate AUT , this is what the institutions need to see, it's taking longer than first thought but hopefully not far away.


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

MIR its very close i communicated with AUT a few days ago and they had a meeting with the reporters today. They wouldnt say when, but its virtually complete..


----------



## 5haretrader (29 July 2010)

Condog, you seem to know a fair old deal about the AUT fundamentals so I am interested in how you think the share price will fare once the reserves upgrade is released. I anticipate it to be a fairly positive announcement so hopefully it kicks the share price above those resistance levels.

Also, today's selling might have been a few who took part in the capital raising selling off their allocated shares for 'easy money'.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 July 2010)

condog said:


> MIR its very close i communicated with AUT a few days ago and they had a meeting with the reporters today. They wouldnt say when, but its virtually complete..






5haretrader said:


> Also, today's selling might have been a few who took part in the capital raising selling off their allocated shares for 'easy money'.




Seeing as everyones speculating and posting unverifiable statements......... Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?


----------



## condog (29 July 2010)

On a fundamental if the upgrade is in the ballpark of what Hartleys suggest which is a possilbe 22% recovery from its current 1P at 7%, thats a 300% upgrade. That wont affect cash flow valuations unless people are projecting beyond about 5-7 years. 

But for those using 1p reserves its a 300% increase in recovery, thus a massive rerating. My guess is it will initially bounce as those, but will take a few days or weeks to ripple through the news and valuation channels. 

Even the big instos have varying analysts, traders, strategists working within then that invest / trade companies on variable parameters. But the fact is the fundamental investors, using valuation based models based on auditable accounting standards will tend to use a valuation model heavily influenced by 1p reserves. 

So i wouldnt at all be surprised to see or hear of several bigger transations if / when it occurs. Euroz and Hartleys will review thier valuations.
If its far enough below valaution it might spark a few new brokers / analysts to report it to thier clients.

Also one needs to consider we have just recently bumped AZZ from its index position and from its top 20 oil and gas position on a fundamental basis that adds another small group of fund buyers.


----------



## nioka (29 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Seeing as everyones speculating and posting unverifiable statements......... Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?




Heaven forbid. Those pesky insiders. I've applied for membership of the club (or at least I would if I knew where to apply).

But then, Are the posts speculative or fact? Flow figures are available. The price of oil and gas is available.The field appears proven. The operator has shown they are competent. The SPP was scaled back so the money is there. The future drilling program is happening and becomes the current program.

I bought a few more today in a swap trade for EKA. The more this stutters the more I like it. Guess I am one of those speculating.


----------



## 5haretrader (29 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?




Insiders would have bailed and left an obvious trace of volume in their wake. Thing is, if it doesn't break 87cents in the next week or two after the reserves upgrade, what will?


----------



## nunthewiser (29 July 2010)

condog said:


> MIR its very close i communicated with AUT a few days ago and they had a meeting with the reporters today. They wouldnt say when, but its virtually complete..






5haretrader said:


> . I anticipate it to be a fairly positive announcement so hopefully it kicks the share price above those resistance levels.
> 
> Also, today's selling might have been a few who took part in the capital raising selling off their allocated shares for 'easy money'.






nioka said:


> *But then, Are the posts speculative or fact? *
> I bought a few more today in a swap trade for EKA. The more this stutters the more I like it. Guess I am one of those speculating.




Yes Definately speculative ....... no verifiable  facts there whatsoever......

good luck with your purchase .


----------



## 5haretrader (29 July 2010)

Well at the moment we don't have the news to give us facts to discuss really....all one can do is make a well-judged speculation and hope it comes to fruition.


----------



## mir (29 July 2010)

nunthewiser
"Seeing as everyones speculating and posting unverifiable statements......... Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ? "
here is another unverifiable statement ,i hear a fair bit & its all good lol.


----------



## nioka (29 July 2010)

Then there is the old saying we must speculate to accumulate. These formums do give us plenty of information some verifyable some not. After awhile it becomes easy to make an informed judgement as to the probability of that speculation being of assistance with making a move ahead of the pack and indeed ahead of the news. (Agent had a reputation of beating the news with ADI by a day or two.)
An educated nod or a wink has helped me in the past and will again in the future. There are also times that the nod has led me down the garden path. Then it becomes a case of "Shame on the one that gave me a bum steer". If however it happens that I accept a bum steer a second time from the same source then it is a case of "Shame on me".

Investing is speculating. Investing in a company has less speculation once they become producers. AUT has become a producer of oil and gas.


----------



## nioka (29 July 2010)

nioka said:


> There doesn't appear to be a thread specefic to AUT. It gets plenty of mention associated with ADI through "Sugarloaf" but it does have other interests so I think it needs an identity of it's own.
> The company has the same percentage share in sugarloaf as ADI with the sp usually at a discount and I have done OK switching back and forth between the two.
> AUT is currently subject to a trading halt pending an announcement not associated with current activities. This could mean raising funds needed for the development of sugarloaf. This could mean a discounted rights issue or it may be a placement , discounted, to a financial institution.One could raise the price the other could lower it?
> Which ever way it goes the long term future of AUT is tied to sugarloaf to a degree but they have another well Nth Bellridge getting close to it's target.




The above was the first post on AUT December 2006. Almost 4 years of speculation that finally paid off....................................


----------



## Lachlan6 (29 July 2010)

I came across AUT tonight and am very glad I did. Super chart, suggesting higher prices are on the horizon. These sideways accumulation patterns are very positive after a strong run higher. Buy order in at $0.85.


----------



## mir (30 July 2010)

condog
from Hartley's "A significant portion of the field has been proven  by wells (see Fig. 2), which should contribute towards a decent 2P number, although we expect that most reserves will be categorised as 3P until more wells are drilled and there is more production history."

currently we are only 2c so it should make a huge difference ,this is how i see it.


Reserves 1P , 2P , 3P
 Discovered, recoverable, commercial,
remaining
 Proved, Probable, Possible
 1P , 2P , 3P
 (now formalized)

Contingent Resources 1C , 2C , 3C
 Discovered, potentially recoverable,
not yet commercial, remaining
 1C, 2C, 3C (new terms)
 Equivalent to Low, Best and High
Estimates


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

Cheers MIR,

Check out this article out today

Bullish or what??

http://www.dailywealth.com/1428/How-to-Double-Your-Money-in-the-Next-Great-Texas-Oil-Field

How to Double Your Money in the Next Great Texas Oil Field 
By Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource Report 
Thursday, July 29, 2010 


"When this is all over, I think I'll buy myself an airplane..."

Last month, I spent several days driving along the coastal plains of south Texas... much of it with one of the most successful independent oilmen in the country.

Like most Texans, my guide on the trip was a natural risk-taker... and an eternal optimist. And while a lifetime of hard work and drilling success has brought him considerable wealth, it's this region of south Texas that has him contemplating "personal airplane" levels of wealth.

I spent about two weeks in the area... inspecting drill sites, looking at wells, and reviewing data from drill logs. My other tour guides were a bunch of genuine Texas wildcatters. Collectively, these guys probably have 100 years of experience scouring the Texas plains for oil and pumping out what they find. They've gone through plenty of booms and busts. It takes a lot to turn their heads.

And in this region – the Eagle Ford shale field – they all think they've found the greatest payday they'll ever hit.

As you've probably read in these pages, the Eagle Ford is a huge shale formation that begins near the Mexican border and sweeps 400 miles northeast almost to Houston. It's best known as Texas' "oil kitchen." Buried more than 12,000 feet underground, oil from the Eagle Ford leached out over the centuries into the more porous limestone above it, creating some of the most prolific oil reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico basin.

Drilling shale formations like the Eagle Ford for the natural gas trapped inside has been the most important trend in the U.S. energy sector over the last decade. Developing the tools to extract shale gas is singularly responsible for an explosion of U.S. natural gas reserves. Now, oil and gas explorers are applying those tools to the biggest shale formation in Texas.

This play is new enough that it's difficult to offer a reliable estimate on how much oil and gas it holds. But consider independent explorer Petrohawk, which kicked off the discovery. It had no production here in 2008. Today, it's producing more than 63 million cubic feet of natural gas and 1,000 barrels of liquids (like butane and gasoline) per day.

Also... two of the early drillers in the region, Pioneer National Resources and EOG Resources, believe their assets hold 1.2 billion and 1 billion barrels, respectively. If Pioneer and EOG are correct in their assessments, this field could produce 5 billion to 10 billion barrels through its lifetime. That would make Eagle Ford the third-largest oil field in the U.S. today.

At one point during my visit, an oncoming semi was so big it forced us up on the side of the dirt road. We had to drive into the sunflowers to avoid a collision. The truck was moving a huge new drill rig, one of the many flooding into southeast Texas.

In March, 43 rigs drilled wells in Eagle Ford. That's up to 61 drilling there today. Nearly the entire fleet (91%) is in use. There just isn't any spare capacity. More rigs need to come into the region, and they will. In the Haynesville shale up in Louisiana, one in four rigs sits idle. In the Barnett, just up the highway in Fort Worth, one in five rigs is out of work. I expect some of those rigs to make the trip to south Texas over the next few months.

The land rush is on. Men and equipment are flooding into the area. Big operators have hundreds of thousands of leased acres. India-based Reliance Energy just spent $1.3 billion (roughly $10,000 per acre) to partner with Pioneer National. Giant oil companies like Shell and ConocoPhillips are working side by side with big independents like Petrohawk and EOG. Nearly all own hundreds of thousands of acres here.

My favorite way to invest in this idea is through companies with lots of unexplored, undeveloped acreages under ownership or lease. Petrohawk, EOG, and Pioneer all own or lease substantial portions of the Eagle Ford. I also recently told my S&A Resource Report subscribers about two companies that throw off huge dividends, yet could skyrocket in price because of their Eagle Ford land positions.

I told my readers to get in soon. One of the oilmen I rode with said the Eagle Ford will easily be the biggest discovery of his more than 30-year career... and maybe the largest in the history of the U.S. oil industry.

Good investing,

Matt Badiali


Certainly rings true for me after trippling mine so far.


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

Nioka something tells me in 4 more years we will be referring to that post above and saying the exact same thing. ITs hard to go bad when your in the middle of the hottest hot spot in the world for unconventional gas and your liquids ratio is so high. You dont have to be einstien to unravvel this story.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 July 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Well at the moment we don't have the news to give us facts to discuss really....all one can do is make a well-judged speculation and hope it comes to fruition.




lol.. Thats a bit like saying we are swimming in the dark, don't know where we are going and should take a punt and hope for the best. 
Mind you, it would be reasonable to say most investment/trading decissions are made on the same basis.."a well judged speculation".


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

No speculation here

heres a snippet of the screen dump from my gmail inbox showing the reply from phoebee,


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

Recieved 22nd July in response to question about when can we expect to see reserves upgrade. As you can see AUT always provide timely, proffessional and ASIC proof responses without breaching disclosure rules. Quality managment at its best imo.

Once again 100% accurate and authentic as reported by me. One thing you will see when you know me long enough is honesty and integrity is core to my being. Which is why i get so narky when i suspect others of not being so.


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

Check ASX announcements as predicted funds starting to get interested

JP MOrgan Chase just bought 20,000,000 AUT shares. Likely in anticipation of either uptrend, takeover, high calculated growth or reserves upgrade.

KKR and RIL just bought into our neighbours, now the USbranch of JP Morgan just bought 20M of us. hmmm anyone else smell a profit coming ???


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 July 2010)

Hey Condog,

Gotta be a bit ****ty you missed out on that gyro copter. They are pretty sweet.


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hey Condog,
> 
> Gotta be a bit ****ty you missed out on that gyro copter. They are pretty sweet.




Na i used my AUT profits and outbid to win another so all is sweet the kids happy.   Bit nervous the last thing we want is a TO before we hold for 12 months, no one wants to pay 45% of our profits to Julia.


----------



## tonudiki (30 July 2010)

condog said:


> Check ASX announcements as predicted funds starting to get interested
> 
> JP MOrgan Chase just bought 20,000,000 AUT shares. Likely in anticipation of either uptrend, takeover, high calculated growth or reserves upgrade.
> 
> KKR and RIL just bought into our neighbours, now the USbranch of JP Morgan just bought 20M of us. hmmm anyone else smell a profit coming ???




Yes, nice to see the instis coming in for a slice of AUT. I thought the announcement of this on the ASX might have been worth an "!" alongside it, but no matter, it is still bullish news I reckon.

 I'm looking forward to the revised reserves report which is due anytime now, per Hartleys. I thought AUT/NSAI might have waited for at least one drill result from the Ipanema acreage but, as that net acreage is only about 13% of AUT's total, perhaps NSAI  are happy to report "blind" on that patch?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 July 2010)

How did JPMorgan Chase buy half of those shares at a SP of .75c 2 days ago tho?

In light of this news, while positive when will be the next breakout? Reporting time?


----------



## Sdajii (30 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Seeing as everyones speculating and posting unverifiable statements......... Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?




Yeah, definitely. Nothing to do with the fact that millions of dollars worth of new shares just got issued, which were purchased at 75c, which people could sell at a profit at anything above 75c. No, that wouldn't have anything to do with a drop of a couple of cents in the direction of 75c, would it? No, I've never heard of profit taking either.

If the sun came out from behind the clouds and you suddenly felt a little warmer, would you speculate that the heat was coming from nuclear fallout or a nearby volcano?


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> How did JPMorgan Chase buy half of those shares at a SP of .75c 2 days ago tho?
> 
> In light of this news, while positive when will be the next breakout? Reporting time?




Becasue some dope probably put a sell at market order on, and they where sitting there quietly scooping them up off screen is my guess.


----------



## mir (30 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow"
How did JPMorgan Chase buy half of those shares at a SP of .75c 2 days ago tho?"
placement 10000000 & 10000000 2 part


----------



## Kremmen (30 July 2010)

condog said:


> Recieved 22nd July in response to question about when can we expect to see reserves upgrade. As you can see AUT always provide timely, proffessional and ASIC proof responses without breaching disclosure rules. Quality managment at its best imo.



I guess you're special and/or have more shares than I do. The only time I emailed a query to AUT, I received no reply.



condog said:


> JP MOrgan Chase just bought 20,000,000 AUT shares. Likely in anticipation of either uptrend, takeover, high calculated growth or reserves upgrade.



Oh, yeah, selling 20M shares to JP Morgan at a discount while scaling back the ordinary shareholders is just peachy!


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

Kremmen, i get what your saying, but this is always a forseeable proposition in SPP's imo in the ones ive been involved with.

Thats why i said just after the SPP when it was hovering at 74-76c, why bother with filling out the forms when you can buy it on market + or - a cent and not risk scale back.

My guess is the non believers waited to see a margin and the believers bought up.


----------



## buysellmestuffed (30 July 2010)

volume 786,564      $641,936  125 trades 

for such a hot stock why is the $$$$ so low , i would have thought that it would sell so quick .


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

As weve tried to say for 3 weeks straight its relatively tightly held and responds to news rather then traders graphs.

Clearly on the back of a CR and SPP plus with recent gains its loosened up slightly, but weve also had a little dry spell of news about to be broken, by Kowalick, T3, Patino spud and reserves upgrade.


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

MIR

From report approx 20 weels by endo fo 2010

20 * 16M NPV = 320M ,    320M / 253.6M  = $1.26  ring any bells

Endo of 2011 30 more = 30 * 16 = 480M   480M / 253M  = $1.89 extra
Alternatively 6.3 c per well using crude averages

1.89 + 1.26 = $3.15 Target end of 2011

50 in 2012 = 800M ,  800M / 253M = 3.15  ,   3.15+ 3.15  = 6.30 Target minus a bit for declines, inneficiencies etc, but clearly the potential is there.

Alternatively  current mcap = .82 * 253.6M = $208M
Projected NPV mcap end of 2010 at 20 * 16M = 320M
Additional value to be added in 5 months is $92M

92M/ 253.6 = 36c per share by end of 2011

Cross check against Euroz and Hartleys valuations
320M / 253.6 = $1.26  pretty damn close imo

Then look forward to 2011 using this method 1.89 / 12 months = roughly 15.75c per calendar month . 

Any which way you calculate it fundamentally on the facts we have available it looks fantastic imo.


----------



## mir (30 July 2010)

condog
the other thing I'm waiting for in the reserves upgrade, is the  updated NPV per well , this should also increase as the old NPV was based on wells 2000' to 3000' in length & half the flow of the more recent wells. so you might have to update your calc's.


----------



## Slipperz (30 July 2010)

Back in again team!

In fact I scored pole position on open this morning with my lil baggie of 50K. 

I was kinda hoping the quarterly would light a fire under the SP to brighten up my weekend but it turns out not to be the case.

Anyhoo it's gotta break out of this sideways channel sometime and imho it's gonna break up not down so rather in than out.

Will probably top up again once we break resistance.

Have a nice weekend all I'm off on the cans....GO THE ROOSTERS... Condog game on!


----------



## nunthewiser (30 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Back in again team!
> 
> In fact I scored pole position on open this morning with my lil baggie of 50K.
> 
> !




You got a stoploss point in mind mate or you just going to hold regardless of direction even if it breaks south ?


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Anyhoo it's gotta break out of this sideways channel sometime and imho it's gonna break up not down so rather in than out.
> 
> Will probably top up again once we break resistance.
> 
> Have a nice weekend all I'm off on the cans....GO THE ROOSTERS... Condog game on!




Got to agree on AUT breaking up, nice bull flag forming, fundamentals well and truly in place. 

But not the ROOSTERS bit, go the Hayne plane / train.


----------



## justiceotp (30 July 2010)

Hey I have a quick question. I added to my holding of AUT today and and was sold a heap of small parcels of stock in lots between 50 and 80 shares, why would someone be dripping stock onto the sell side like this?


----------



## Huitzii (30 July 2010)

justiceotp said:


> Hey I have a quick question. I added to my holding of AUT today and and was sold a heap of small parcels of stock in lots between 50 and 80 shares, why would someone be dripping stock onto the sell side like this?



I was watching this happen aswell and I thought it may have been someone trying to open a stop loss in a slow cunning manner as the trades that I saw were .005 under current market
Next week if we get the reserves upgrade it could be a good week....I hope 
I hold AUT
DYOR


----------



## condog (30 July 2010)

A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up.  Report them - bots are the evil enemy.


----------



## nunthewiser (30 July 2010)

condog said:


> A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up.  Report them - bots are the evil enemy.






Oh dear.......

these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it.

On a low volume stock like AUT sometimes it pays to use this method  so you dont scare the buyers off with larger sell orders

anyone can do it IB provides this service.

there are numerous threads on ASF in regards to this practise.

nothin "evil" or conspiratory about it .

on a side note todays main VOLUME action was around the lows of the day and the pumps along the way were immediatly sold into . Check Vwap and course of sales.

My target of 66-72/73 and analysis still stands at present but happy to jump on as a trade if proven wrong.


----------



## 5haretrader (30 July 2010)

Nun if AUT breaks out in a bearish pattern I agree that this one will be heading south to 66cents. But AUT shareholders like the Eagleford story and fundamentally there isn't a reason for the market cap to decline in value, if anything it has alot of cacthing up to do I feel.

Should be trading in the 90s by the end of August. 20 trading days to make up 15% is reasonable to expect with the reserves upgrade, spud announcement to come etc...


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Should be trading in the 90s by the end of August. 20 trading days to make up 15% is reasonable to expect with the reserves upgrade, spud announcement to come etc...




Yep 36-40c to reach both broker consensi forecast and conservative fundamental valuation based on NPV or cash flow models provide on page 44-45 with very little future value built in. 

36/82 = 43% imo in 5 months is my target.  Looking forward to around 6-8c on average per month, obviously its more likely to come in hills and troughs.

 This is only my opinion. Make no gaurauntees or implied accuracey. Do your own reseach and seek expert independent advice always.


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Oh dear.......



Provocative and unnecesary.
Bots give one trader an advantage over another, which is in breach of ASIC rules and regs. 
Your theroy about not scaring the seller or buyer off does not make sense. If they have a large order on and you wnat to buy or sell thier parcel its easily done in one hit. Only computer programs can act with such timing to remove such an order in time and thats my point. Similarly an ordinary person cannot place orders in such small parcels economically, hence another breach. Mark my words, IMF or Slater and Gordon will sieze on this in a few years time and go after purpetrators with a big class action like the banks are currently facing. If they are smart they will wait till the amounts are significant. But i dont feel its appropriate to harp on about this in this thread. Best in my opinion to operate on the ethical and safe side of the rule.As you say there are plenty of discussions specific to this action elsewhere.


nunthewiser said:


> on a side note todays main VOLUME action was around the lows of the day and the pumps along the way were immediatly sold into . Check Vwap and course of sales.




I checked this and dont agree. 



nunthewiser said:


> My target of 66-72/73 and analysis still stands at present but happy to jump on as a trade if proven wrong.




What analysis? All price targets are meant to be accompanied by rational. Please provide analysis you refer to for discussion. Otherwise we have no choice but to totally disregard such targets.


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

Agent remember a few weeks ago i said Offshore would struggle and onshore would attract the investment dollars. You questioned this and said there was no evidence etc and wonder what else i was wrong on. 

More evidence for you Agent
http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet...m/exploration/2010/07/drilling-rig_count.html

*Drilling rig count climbs onshore -- offshore is a different story*


July 30, 2010 
By Phaedra Friend Troy 

According to the weekly drilling rig report provided by Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), the number of drilling rigs working onshore and offshore North America has increased. 

While the number of land rigs contracted for work in the US only rose one this week, the number is up 638 rigs year over year, bringing the number of US land rigs currently contracted to 1,586. 

Most likely, the increase has been spurred by Shale drilling, with spikes being seen in the number of rigs working in shale areas. Year over year, the number of land rigs working in Texas, which contains Haynesville, Barnett and Eagle Ford Shale plays increased by 94.5 percent. In Pennsylvania, which contains the massive Marcellus Shale play, the number of rigs working increased by 91 percent year over year. With the biggest increase, the number of rigs working in North Dakota, which contains the Bakken Shale play, increased year over year by 212 percent. 

Additionally, the number of Canadian land rigs contracted this week increased by 14 to 363 drilling rigs. This is an increase of 163 land rigs year over year for Canada. 

Offshore the US, the number of rigs contracted for work is currently 16; which while up two from last week, is down 20 offshore rigs year over year, representing a 55.56 percent decrease in the number of drilling rigs working in the US Gulf of Mexico.


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

*Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020* - July 30th

*and at least $150 oil by 2015*

For decades, the theory of peak oil—or the idea that the world either has or will soon exhaust its ability to produce more oil—was derided as a doomsday scenario too unbelievable to ever come to pass. But $147 oil and one commodity crash later, and suddenly peak oil doesn't sound so strange after all.
In fact, mounting scientific evidence suggests that peak oil will not only be a reality, but may soon be upon us, says Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co.

With over 50 years' experience in the oil industry, Maxwell is a renowned expert in the energy markets; Institutional Investor has ranked him as the market's No. 1 oil analyst nine different years.

.....but it wouldn't surprise me if the financial side of the oil business began to tighten in 2012 anyway, in anticipation of what could be seen in 2013 and 2014.
......

Particularly, we could begin to have interest in the companies with very large reserves or smaller capitalizations, where you're buying a lot of barrels per hundred dollars of market capitalization.

Arrrrrrr hello AUT ring any bells.


Article continues at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217608-why-we-ll-see-300-oil-by-2020

Imagine the economics of these wells on that basis. OMG???


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

condog said:


> A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up.  Report them - bots are the evil enemy.






nunthewiser said:


> Oh dear.......
> 
> these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it.
> 
> ...






condog said:


> Provocative and unnecesary.
> .




? 
Why? because i provided facts ?

This thread is unbelievable! provide facts with no abuse and  name calling??? WTF??... oh i know why ....lol its because it  exposed some of the made up rubbish that gets posted in threads at times.

DEAR ASF READERS PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH WHEN LISTENING TO POSTERS IN THESE THREADS.

thankyou.


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

Nun , with respect where are the facts. You keep saying over and over your analysis says, but you will not provide your analysis for us to discuss.

Once some time ago you provided a graph with a resistance line and a trendline. Some time ago. Yet you profess to be a short term trader. That being the case that analysis is surely outdated by now. 

Please provide analysis.

All my calculations are out there for all to see and discuss. So please if your going to provide price targets , please provide the analysis.


----------



## nioka (31 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Oh dear.......
> 
> these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it..





 I don't say bots are evil but I do say there is always a reason for them to be active. I like to know they are active in any stock I am interested in and I particularly like to know whether they are buying or selling.  My actions in buying or selling are influenced by bot action. I also believe that in order to have a level playing field that brokers should have their orders placed without being hidden in any way, the same as my orders are there for everyone to see.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

condog said:


> A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up.  Report them - bots are the evil enemy.






nunthewiser said:


> Oh dear.......
> 
> these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it.
> 
> ...






condog said:


> Provocative and unnecesary.
> . Similarly an ordinary person cannot place orders in such small parcels economically, hence another breach. Mark my words, IMF or Slater and Gordon will sieze on this in a few years time and go after purpetrators with a big class action like the banks are currently facing.
> 
> .






nunthewiser said:


> ?
> Why? because i provided facts ?
> 
> This thread is unbelievable! provide facts with no abuse and  name calling??? WTF??... oh i know why ....lol its because it  exposed some of the made up rubbish that gets posted in threads at times.
> ...






condog said:


> Nun , with respect where are the facts.  .




http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=orderTypes

Dear condog my posts are not an attack on you as a person merelyy providing facts for the garbage you are passing off as "bro " talk which is unerifiable and in breach of ASF rules in regards to rumours . please refrain from doing so as asked by Joe earlier

thankyou


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

nioka said:


> I don't say bots are evil but I do say there is always a reason for them to be active. I like to know they are active in any stock I am interested in and I particularly like to know whether they are buying or selling.  My actions in buying or selling are influenced by bot action. I also believe that in order to have a level playing field that brokers should have their orders placed without being hidden in any way, the same as my orders are there for everyone to see.




Gday Nokia .

m8 its no different from a few years back when "U" orders were rife U=undisclosed....... used to be on the majority of blue chips on orders that wanted to keep there size private.back then however it was limited to 250k(could be wrong) before you could use it.

re orders being hidden .... what about market orders?.....on some stocks MOST volumes traded actually come off screen and take out the listed(in depth) punters.

ppl may not agree with this algo trading ( bots as ppl like to call them ) but its a fact of life and one merely has to see it for what it is ...... another type of order.


----------



## nioka (31 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> ppl may not agree with this algo trading ( bots as ppl like to call them ) but its a fact of life and one merely has to see it for what it is ...... another type of order.




Agree with you on that score but my point remains. "I like to know when they are active. I like to know if they are buying or selling."


----------



## mir (31 July 2010)

condog
i must admit i get a laugh from NUN's posts , low on content & high on humour, please keep it up otherwise it gets a bit boring.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

mir said:


> condog
> i must admit i get a laugh from NUN's posts , low on content & high on humour, please keep it up otherwise it gets a bit boring.




low on content?

i have provied DETAILED volume analysis here

I have provided a FACTUAL answer for this myyth on "bot " trading 

is it because i provide the other side to the stuff here that my comments are regarded as "low content" ?


----------



## nulla nulla (31 July 2010)

Actualy the u=undisclosed buy/sell bids have been popping up with increasing frequency in the last two or three weeks. ITO is a perfect example. Sometimes you can get a rough estimate of their size in the opening and closing auctions. 
I note that another week has ended and AUT closed on $0.82. Those resistance levels are certainly proving a stumbling block. That and the sell down volumes. I guess people are still cashing out their share take up for the quick profits.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Actualy the u=undisclosed buy/sell bids have been popping up with increasing frequency in the last two or three weeks. ITO is a perfect example. Sometimes you can get a rough estimate of their size in the opening and closing auctions.
> I note that another week has ended and AUT closed on $0.82. Those resistance levels are certainly proving a stumbling block. That and the sell down volumes. I guess people are still cashing out their share take up for the quick profits.




marked as a "U" in the depths nulla?

if so thats news to me mate as i thought that was wiped out a while back , if you correct i apologise for my earlier post in regards to " U " orders


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (31 July 2010)

Really good guys, keep fighting. I keep coming back to find news posted by condog so then I can read more about his news findings and today I see a few of of you and one in particular quoting posts with nothing in regards to AUT. Guys comon.

Nun.. comon dude, why do you keep posting here and putting wood into the fire?

Condog.. you post a lot of content, why worry about someone else's opinions?

*shake hands please*


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

> condog
> ReachForTheSkies
> 
> 
> ...





nunthewiser said:


> http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=orderTypes
> 
> Dear condog my posts are not an attack on you as a person merelyy providing facts for the garbage you are passing off as "bro " talk which is unerifiable and in breach of ASF rules in regards to rumours . please refrain from doing so as asked by Joe earlier
> 
> thankyou






BrightGreenGlow said:


> Nun.. comon dude, why do you keep posting here and putting wood into the fire?
> 
> *




That is why. Other people read these threads also and may be swayed by unfactual rumours and other stuff posted here 

I have no problem with any of the FACTUAL analysis provided in this thread whatsoever

and as far as my posts being AUT unrelated i disagree , my posts and copies of posts are in DIRECT discussion about fridays trades

Just keeping it real


----------



## happytown (31 July 2010)

condog said:


> extract of interest FROM
> http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/359...s-liquids-ngls-coal-offshore-drilling-gom.htm
> 
> _according to Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry. Porter, who built his reputation on finding safe-value investments poised to give his followers years of exceptional returns, also has a reputation as an independent thinker with a penchant for "out-of-consensus" viewpoints. He shares some of his contrarian opinions in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report._
> ...




this post above, #677, warns of a potential tripling of the cost of drilling wells, and bearing in mind the EPA is currently in the early stages of a study into hydraulic fracturing and its effects on groundwater, including in Texas, it is somewhat surprising that those presenting forward financial projections for aut, don't contemplate this possibility

should an objective analysis at least include both possibilities - current drilling costs approx being the norm going forward, and drilling costs potentially as much as tripling?


----------



## J&M (31 July 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> That is why. Other people read these threads also and may be swayed by unfactual rumours and other stuff posted here
> 
> I have no problem with any of the FACTUAL analysis provided in this thread whatsoever
> 
> ...




There lots of points of view to buy or sell a Stock 
as a newbie I look at both points I like to read condogs posts about the reasons to hold this share and the upside which in his calculations are all positive. The nun seems to look at the stock from a different aspect 
and looks at maybe downside just to keep it real 
He has a wicked sense of humor I don't find this a put-down of another member. I laugh at some of his comments 
Keep posting to you all
I have nothing more to say 
James


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

Ok let me rephrase this terrible non factual two line statement that has cause the sky to fall in. 

bro=Nokia

fixed = now verifiable, we can all move on with our lives

Wow two lines out of 1070 post unverifieabla and youd swear the god damn sky was gunna fallin. But i just looked outside and it didnt. Funny thing is AUt hasnt plunged either.  hmmmm what to think???

i checked my glass and what do you know it was half full. 

Still waiting to see some semblance of this mythical analisys the nun speaks of so frequently. All i ever saw was a poorly placed trendline with two touches and a resistance line, which could be innefectual as it was on a poorly placed trendline imo.

Nun i dont know why you bother, its all negati ve, you dont hold and its a crap stock to trade. If its just to keep us bastards honest then attack our analysis, with counter analysis, but my god why bother, surely chasing better investments yourself is time better spent.

Looking forward to the reserves upgrade are we all. xoxo

Go the Eels. 5.30 gunna smash the roosters. by the way this is only opinion. please do not rely on this predition as gospel or truth. Ok.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

> Still waiting to see some semblance of this mythical analisys the nun speaks of so frequently.
> , .




As requested here is my analysis in this thread INCLUDING tech charts .. VOLUME analysis and also a bewty on unfactual analysis right at the bottom .

My targets as posted in them links still stand .

I trade AUT and hence my intrest in this thread. I have no bias towards it , i could not care if the price is 60 or 90, i trade technicals on it ONLY

Just keeping it real

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567201#post567201

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567202#post567202

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567298#post567298

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567531#post567531

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567693#post567693

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567746#post567746

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=567877#post567877

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=568898#post568898

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=568916#post568916

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=568920#post568920

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=568926#post568926

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=568928#post568928

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=568949#post568949


Oh and forgive me for pointing out that when i posted that original chart the price was around 85-87 or something and current price is 82 with dips below that intraday on VOLUMES.


thankyou.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

oops sorry i missed the last three links ....... apologies for any confusion but i think my point is clear now


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=570429#post570429

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=570446#post570446

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=570854#post570854


----------



## sam76 (31 July 2010)

Where are the mods because this thread is another fine example of just how far downhill this site has gone.


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

sam76 said:


> Where are the mods because this thread is another fine example of just how far downhill this site has gone.




??

How so sam ?

we are providing analysis

we are providing answers and counter arguments to them answers

 a lot of indepth analysis here

yes there has been a lot of niggling but now the arguments are at the analysis and not on a personal basis.

should it be like hot flopper and only one side of the story told?

Personally think that this thread is one of the most indepth ( as far as analysis goes ) threads on the whole of ASF at present.

Why the negativity ?


----------



## Slipperz (31 July 2010)

Nunthewiser I have my stop in at 0.75. 






I doubt it's going to get hit but if we have a duster or the POO collapses then anythings possible.

I still consider 0.82 cents to be a minor support level and was happy to buy off it even if intraday trades offered a cent or two discount.

My reason for buying in on friday was threefold.

As I mentioned earlier I thought the quarterly would make for good reading, 82 cents is a support level and also the volume has been ticking up all week and I thought Firday might have been our next kick off point for the next leg up.






I guess the overall bearish tone to Fridays trading kept  a lid on things.

Dow was pretty flat to finish the week so it's a level playing field on monday.

Oilprice is starting to give 90 dollars a nudge and looking pretty bullish and that is one key driver going forward


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Nunthewiser I have my stop in at 0.75.
> 
> 
> I still consider 0.82 cents to be a minor support level and was happy to buy off it even if intraday trades offered a cent or two discount.




Cheers, good luck with your hold.

I will not ask why .75 as stop as each and everyone of us has a varing reason for placing the stops where we place them  ( be it tech support/fund support or whatever )

i agree on 82 minor suppport and next few days should be intresting.

Intraday vols on friday were intresting around the lows and i dare say you would have already looked at vwap/c.o.s etc 

Currently in too risky a spot for me to warrant an entry but not gunna knock yours either......... 

I will be in with Bells on if it breaks resistance

will be standing back watching for the selloff/ panic if it breaks supports...and waiting with Bells on for a overshoot.

Excuse my chart, I trade them not draw them


----------



## mir (31 July 2010)

happytime
"this post above, #677, warns of a potential tripling of the cost of drilling wells"

fair point but here is a bit from hartleys report

"Texas Crude – Insights into Quality of AUT Acreage
We spent time with one of the geologists credited with the discovery of the Eagle Ford, who works for Texas Crude, one of AUT’s partners. The quality of the acreage was confirmed by comparative well data showing best initial production in the play and best 30 day flow rates for both oil and gas equivalent, all of which occurred within the area in which AUT has an interest."

here is a bit from an AUT report

"Preliminary Results Indicate Robust Economics
Industry analysis shows the Eagle
Ford to be one of the best shale
plays in North America"

so AUT is in "one of the best shale plays" & have the best acres in that play ,the economics of acreage is second to none, so if drilling cost triple most other operators will struggle a whole lot more.


----------



## Agentm (31 July 2010)

Slipperz said:


> I doubt it's going to get hit but if we have a duster or the POO collapses then anythings possible.
> 
> 
> Oilprice is starting to give 90 dollars a nudge and looking pretty bullish and that is one key driver going forward




JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered by 5.5 percent its forecast for New York oil prices this year on speculation a slowdown in global economies will limit crude’s potential to rise.

The bank cut to $77.25 a barrel its estimate for the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the rest of 2010, from a forecast of $81.75 a barrel made last month, according to a monthly report e-mailed today. It lowered its forecast for 2011’s average price to $79.25 a barrel from $90.

“We see both lower prices and a tighter range ahead -- but with increased risks,” Lawrence Eagles, an analyst for the U.S. bank, wrote in the report. “Weaker economic growth, energy efficiency and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries intransigence provide downside risks.”

*Crude may fall next week amid increases in U.S. supplies *and OPEC production, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude oil has declined by 0.5 percent this year to $78.95 a barrel in New York, after rising 78 percent last year.

“There’s an increased drive towards energy efficiency and renewable energy in China,” said Henry Wang, managing director, of Beijing-based energy consultant Gate International Ltd. “This could create downward pressure on oil demand.”

Pressure on China’s oil demand, the world’s biggest energy user, affects global consumption, which may impact prices, Wang, who formerly worked for Royal Dutch Shell Plc. in China, said by phone from Beijing today.

Production Cuts

*Oil prices may fall more than expected on lower demand and a risk OPEC member nations won’t adhere to production cuts, the bank said.*

*“If demand drops, the Gulf Trio, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are likely to demand cuts from ‘leaky’ members to rebalance the market, but any delay in response risks a fall in prices as low as $50 a barrel,” Eagles said.*

The demand outlook in the projection has been moderated in recent months because of shifts in the bank’s economic forecasts, according to the report.

“This month sees further changes, which take down 2010 demand growth to 1.8 million barrels a day and 2011 to a ‘trend’ 1.5 million barrels a day,” Eagles said. “The net sum of our supply and demand changes reduces the call on OPEC by 1.2 million barrels a day at the end of 2011.” 

now where did i see this before??  oh,, now i remember, those groundhog days..

i dont really see anywhere where the consensus on oil @ $90,  but your entitled to think it but can you explain what the basis is for the estimate slipperz

its important to back up how you think oil is going to reach $90.  the very mild downgrading of oil with a very stark warning of what may happen if the usual suspects dont conform.. ie $50 oil...  its pretty easy to get there.. and hedge funds thrive on these type of conditions..

imho the trend is down... thats one thing i keep a close watch on..

as for the s&p 500 miracle 10% run on vapour, and with equity funds withdrawing week in week out, 11.5 billion in july alone, i am sure this bizzare us market will sort it self out.. and keep an eye on the ecri..

imho the discussion of the downside, which will send the smallcaps to cash value in a heartbeat is something anyone risking an entry needs to consider..

we have seen how little unity there was a few years back when it hit the fan and oil went to $30.. be cautious on the oil prices and imho try and back up claims of $90 oil with at least some evidence..


----------



## condog (31 July 2010)

Sam 76 -  i reject that notion, some of the anlysis on here is the best on the entire forum, its just the random jibba jabba and negative garbage being proported as fact thats degenrative to this theread. Till the thread got hijacked a few weeks ago it was one of the best threads on this forum.


Nun thanks for all those links but i just looked through all of them and ther are only two actual pieces of analysis, both with extremly simplistic trendlines that are in my opinion arguably incorrectly placed and that you infact even appologised for the simplistic nature of.. Why because of the number of touches and the lack of recent touches, hence arguably incorrectly placed. Number of touches is a key indicator with trendlines, and imo two touches in 7 months with no touches in 3 months, due to specific fundamental changes to the stock is an incorrectly placed trendline. 

Agent interesting that from seeking Alpha which was one of the sites you used to prolifically quote till just recently and they say the following today, and its from arguably the worlds leading authority on oil forcasts.

*Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020 - July 30th*

*and at least $150 oil by 2015*

For decades, the theory of peak oil—or the idea that the world either has or will soon exhaust its ability to produce more oil—was derided as a doomsday scenario too unbelievable to ever come to pass. But $147 oil and one commodity crash later, and suddenly peak oil doesn't sound so strange after all.
In fact, mounting scientific evidence suggests that peak oil will not only be a reality, but may soon be upon us, says Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co.

With over 50 years' experience in the oil industry, Maxwell is a renowned expert in the energy markets; Institutional Investor has ranked him as the market's No. 1 oil analyst nine different years.

.....but it wouldn't surprise me if the financial side of the oil business began to tighten in 2012 anyway, in anticipation of what could be seen in 2013 and 2014.
......

Particularly, we could begin to have interest in the companies with very large reserves or smaller capitalizations, where you're buying a lot of barrels per hundred dollars of market capitalization.




Article continues at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2176...00-oil-by-2020

Imagine the economics of these wells on that basis. OMG???


----------



## nunthewiser (31 July 2010)

condog said:


> A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up.  Report them - bots are the evil enemy.






condog said:


> Sam 76 -  i reject that notion, some of the anlysis on here is the best on the entire forum, its just the random jibba jabba *and negative garbage being proported as fact thats degenrative to this theread.  *
> 
> 
> Nun thanks for all those links  ???




Totally agree condog . about time we agreed on something ....... no room for "negative garbage being proported as fact" at all on here.



Hey no worries , its great to have all sorts of varying opinions here bud.


----------



## Slipperz (31 July 2010)

Agentm said:


> JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered by 5.5 percent its forecast for New York oil prices this year on speculation a slowdown in global economies will limit crude’s potential to rise.
> 
> The bank cut to $77.25 a barrel its estimate for the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the rest of 2010, from a forecast of $81.75 a barrel made last month, according to a monthly report e-mailed today. It lowered its forecast for 2011’s average price to $79.25 a barrel from $90.
> 
> ...




My bad Agentm I meant to say 80 dollars a barrel.

Oil price is still looking pretty bullish though.


----------



## condog (1 August 2010)

> Originally Posted by Agent
> 
> .............. oil at $30




This is crazy wild speculation

Wow how things change.

Firstly cant find a realistic source that says thats gunna happen and as in the very credibile article posted here from Seeking alpha from the worlds leading expert on oil prices, its more likely to go significantly higher, due to money supply issues and impending long term demand / supply capacity issues, known as peak oil.

Secondly , when you got caugght long in ADI during GFC, this was a significnatly different company. Virtually no flows, no propper drilling and fraccing program, and certainly absolutely no resemblance to the continual value being added right now via the current drilling program.

Sure if oil goes to $30 and stays there well economics become a huge issue. But where on earth are you getting credible news saying thats likely. Please post links, because this is just not the consensus forcasts im reading. 

Without a doubt right now everything i read says we have very temporary strong inventories, which would usually correspond with drops in oil price.

However theres three never before seen forces keeping oil high and likely to in the medium to long term drive it higher.
1. The incredible money supply driven by stimulus packages world wide, the money has to be poarked somewhere and with equity markets and banks presenting unforseen risks , commodities are the prefferred option, in Gold first, oil second.
2. Un seen imminent global demand upon a US recovery when combined with the new demands from China and India
3. Peak oil concerns becoming a likely reality in the psychie of futures traders from 2012 onwards.



> In fact, mounting scientific evidence suggests that peak oil will not only be a reality, but may soon be upon us, says Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co.
> 
> With over 50 years' experience in the oil industry, Maxwell is a renowned expert in the energy markets; Institutional Investor has ranked him as the market's No. 1 oil analyst nine different years.




You should recognise this name AGent
You definitely know this site http://seekingalpha.com/article/2176...00-oil-by-2020 as prior to selling ADI you used to quote it regularly in the ADI thread.
And whilst even im not bullish anywhere near Maxwell is, he has some extremely valid points and an incredible following for good reason. He knows the game better then most ever will.


----------



## condog (1 August 2010)

Agentm said:


> perhaps read this from murphy they  talk about their gaszone well in mcmullen, and then how they view the karnes county oil zone and their new well and also the play itself
> 
> many questions on the eagleford in the Q&A section
> 
> ...




Awesome find agent this one is and was. Well worth a read for all. Yep and your comments ring totally true.

Only difference is back when you where saying this , brilliant oil flows for ADI and AUT where a hope or dream, now they are an absolute reality. The best reported to date in the entire Eagle Ford Shale.


----------



## Slipperz (1 August 2010)

Sheesh condog you are relentless

BTW the hayne train just got derailed by the roosters
:

My theme song for AUT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxvpctgU_s8&a=GxdCwVVULXfmMn68Q8aPLPb8T-QWworr


----------



## condog (1 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Sheesh condog you are relentless
> 
> BTW the hayne train just got derailed by the roosters
> :
> ...




yep looks like the eels will have to be happy with one premiership in the last two years.:

nice extract from chinese fn

Whether Beijing's formula of mixed capitalism and state control of key enterprises will prove to be durable over the long run has yet to be seen. What we do know, however, is that a few more years of surging energy consumption will soon be playing havoc with energy prices around the world. Even with GDP growth down to 8 or 10 percent each year, China seems to be on course to import at least an additional 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) on top of the 5.4 million b/d imported in June. Beijing's oil imports have doubled in the last five years. Given that other Asian states are increasing imports and the Gulf oil exporters are consuming increasing amounts of oil, something has got to give. That of course will be prices.


----------



## condog (1 August 2010)

*U.S. military warns of oil production shortage by 2015*

The U.S. military thinks we're one step closer to peak oil, the point at which oil demand will forever outstrip oil supply, and therefore we're one step closer to fighting over the last rusting cans of gasoline like so many scraps of meat. On the plus side, we're also one step closer to finally equipping our cars with superchargers and massive gas tanks rigged with explosives a la Mad Max and his archetypal peak-oil sled, "the last of the V-8 Interceptors." 

The U.S. Joint Forces command has issued a Joint Operating Environment report that states that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and that there could be serious shortages by 2015. From the report: 
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day, While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.

from:
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/04/15/u-s-military-warns-of-oil-production-shortage-by-2015/

*2/01/2008 11:17 AM    Peak Oil - 2015*

Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, has predicted the peak oil crises will hit in 2015, when global demand outstrips supply and cheap, easily accessible oil runs out.
http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=68151

*Richard Branson Predicts Peak Oil In 2015*
Posted by majestic	 on February 15, 2010

As the owner of a major airline, Virgin’s Richard Branson must think about the prospect of peak oil more than most of us. Apparently he’s a believer, as reported in the Christian Science Monitor:
http://www.disinfo.com/2010/02/richard-branson-predicts-peak-oil-in-2015/

*Oil crunch by 2012, say military experts*  April 16 2010
http://www.news.com.au/business/oil-crunch-by-2012-say-military-experts/story-e6frfm1i-1225854353413

US military predicts "energy crunch"
Shortage of refining capacity, engineers
Demand could outstrip supply by 2012

RISING oil prices pose a grave threat to global economic recovery, according to some economists.
Thus it was sobering this week to read that the US military has warned the world faces a "severe energy crunch" and looming oil shortages.
According to a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, "a severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity".
The report says the central problem for the coming decade "will not be a lack of petroleum reserves, but rather a shortage of drilling platforms, engineers and refining capacity".
And it warns: "Even were a concerted effort begun today to repair that shortage, it would be 10 years before production could catch up with expected demand."

More ominously, the military predicts a "Peak Oil" scenario - where demand outstrips the world's supply capacity - as soon as 2012.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels a day.

*Plenty of guys out there with a lot more info and high paid analysts painting a very similar picture.*

In my humble opinion its a simple problem, the GFC fixed the demand side of the equation and did absolutely nothing to help the supply side, with trained people, equipment, investment, infrastructure etc. So as soon as growth recovers to pre-GFC levels we are in for price jolts unseen imo.

Which country will be first to say we cant afford oil any more. Cant see us or the US, or China or India accepting that, so what choice will we have but to pay rediculously higher oil prices. 

There will be only one winner if this occurs. Oil companies. Worth taking a hedge against imo. And i cant find any better then WPL as a large cap and AUT  as a small cap.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 August 2010)

condog said:


> yep looks like the eels will have to be happy with one premiership in the last two years.:




Pretty sure they don't have the rings or the trophy to support them winning.....  lol Hmm I've been waiting to get in WPL as well. Do you hold them Condog?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 August 2010)

Here's their quarterly summary. Dunno if you guys posted it before... What do you make of it condog?

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100730/pdf/31rmkd0nr2mljx.pdf


----------



## condog (1 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Here's their quarterly summary. Dunno if you guys posted it before... What do you make of it condog?
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100730/pdf/31rmkd0nr2mljx.pdf




Well as a bro, cant remember if it was esteon or mir or nokia posted elsewhere, the very comforting thing was there where no surprises at all. We knew everything in it. Well flow dat consitent with what had been announced, reserve upgrade comments consistent with what i had said here and cash flow statements in line with previous asx announcements. 

All good imo.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 August 2010)

It had a market sensitive mark on it. While it was released Friday. What can we expect on Monday? No breakout? Still flat?


----------



## Slipperz (1 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Here's their quarterly summary. Dunno if you guys posted it before... What do you make of it condog?
> 
> http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100730/pdf/31rmkd0nr2mljx.pdf




Nothing really new in there although I was hoping for the reserves report.

Just a reiteration of the fact AUT has prime acreages is cashed up and is going to drill like all get out with a superb operator (Hillcorp) to extract oil revenue from the eagleford.

All good IMHO.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (1 August 2010)

I always find it interesting that AUT makes such a big play in its exploration reports about the heavy hitters in the oil and gas industry with acreages abutting AUT's acreage.  I can't help but wonder whether it serves a two-fold purpose; first, to reassure current investors that AUT is mixing it with the big boys in the right part of the world; secondly, to attract the interest of one of the big boys to buy AUT lock, stock and barrel.


----------



## nioka (1 August 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I always find it interesting that AUT makes such a big play in its exploration reports about the heavy hitters in the oil and gas industry with acreages abutting AUT's acreage.  I can't help but wonder whether it serves a two-fold purpose; first, to reassure current investors that AUT is mixing it with the big boys in the right part of the world; secondly, to attract the interest of one of the big boys to buy AUT lock, stock and barrel.




I'd like to think that they want the true value of AUT to be reflected in the SP so that they are not a cheap takeover target as was ADI.


----------



## Slipperz (1 August 2010)

Here's an intriging little article on the power plays in the middle east.

Reads more like a spy novel than real life though!  



A Coup in Saudi Avoided or Iranian Disinformation?

Did King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia narrowly avoid being overthrown by a close member of his own royal family?  That seems to be a rumor circulating around some political and intelligence circles in Washington as well as in the Middle East.  A Saudi official however denied the allegations saying it was most likely Iranian disinformation.

Indeed, there have been reports  ¬- all unconfirmed - ¬ that Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdel Aziz, a nephew of the king and former Saudi ambassador to Washington had attempted a coup and has since been under house arrest.  Other sources said Bandar was detained in a Saudi prison. A Saudi official however told this reporter that the whole story was part of an Iranian disinformation campaign.

"Utter nonsense" was how the official described the whole affair, adding that this was an ongoing struggle by Iran to discredit the Saudis and perturb efforts to reconcile Saudi Arabia and Syria, a move that would undoubtedly be to the detriment of the Iranian-Syrian love affair.

Of course no one will go on the record to confirm or deny any of the allegations brought forward in this new Middle East muddle. Yet a number of tidbits are beginning to emerge allowing one to piece together a large jigsaw puzzle with many pieces still missing.

One of the main components is the whereabouts of Prince Bandar. The former ambassador and head of the Saudi National Security Council has not been seen in public for many months. According to a Saudi official, however, Bandar is spending time on his ranch in Colorado.

Yet what makes this story interesting are a number of strangely timed coincidences.  In the dark world of espionage and intelligence gathering there is no such thing as a coincidence. Things usually happen for a good reason.

The first item that deserves special attention is the sudden rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria. Why is that unusual?  Because the two countries are as far apart as one can possibly imagine from every aspect of the political and social-economic field; and not too long ago it looked as though they were about to come to blows.

This past week King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia made an official visit to Lebanon. This could have never happened had there not been a thawing between Syria and Saudi.  Prior to his visit to Beirut the Saudi king was in Morocco where he conferred with the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Last year the mood changed between Damascus and Riyadh quite suddenly.  The
Lebanese press dubbed this change in Syrian-Saudi relations as the "Seen-Seen" agreement for the way the letter "S" is pronounced in Arabic.

What followed was a summit meeting between King Abdullah and President Bashar Assad of Syria. Sources in Beirut say the move came at the initiative of the Saudis who wanted better relations with the Syrians and wanted to defuse some of the tension that persisted in the region.

The Syrian and the Lebanese press were filled with reports of all the positive steps the two Arab leaders had agreed to take but neither the Syrian nor the Saudi press alluded to the real deal that was reached by the two leaders at this meeting, according to reliable sources in Lebanon.  In essence that was Syria's "soft return to Lebanon" as one Lebanese official put it.  A direct outcome of the Syrian-Saudi deal was the visit to Damascus by Saad Hariri, Lebanon's prime minister and son of the assassinated leader.

Acting in the spirit of this rapprochement Syria passed on to Saudi Arabia information that a member of the royal family was planning a coup d'Ã©tat. The intelligence, it seems according to Middle East intelligence sources, came from Russian intelligence.  And now, as they say, the plot thickens.

In his new role as head of the National Security Council Prince Bandar had made a number of visits to Moscow to negotiate arms deals for Riyadh. Is that the Russian connection, if there is indeed one? 

Furthermore, as a sign of goodwill Syria told the Saudis that they would intervene in Yemen with the Houthi rebels fighting along the Saudi border. In return Syria asked the Saudis who have great influence with Hariri to use this influence to convince the Lebanese prime minister that it was in his interest to recognize the importance of Damascus.  In return Syria needed to distance itself from accusations that it was responsible for the killing of Rafik Hariri.

Before that could happen, another suspect had to be found:  Enter Israel onto the scene.

As was reported July 26, some 70 people in Lebanon were arrested for spying for Israel in recent months, including three officials of Alpha, a state-owned cellular phone company.  Cellular communications transmitted through Alpha played a vital role in the investigation of Hariri's murder. The three men admitted to have spied for Israel.

In short, Saudi-Syrian relations are amended; Beirut is made to understand that there can be no circumventing Damascus; Syria is absolved of any implications in the killing of the former Lebanese prime minster with the blame now resting on the traditional enemy, Israel.

Very convenient, but is that the truth? We may never know.

Yet in this great muddle of spies, lies and broken alliances there may be a glitter of hope if the Seen-Seen deal (the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement) gives way to distancing Tehran from Damascus and lays the groundwork to allow Syria to move closer to the West. 

Could this be the reason why Iran might be trying to discredit the Saudis?  This is one more unanswered question in the parallel war of disinformation.

By. Claude Salhani

Claude Salhani is a political analyst specializing in the Middle East and terrorism.


----------



## condog (1 August 2010)

Good by all leaving asf for the other forum for good, sick to death of nuns rubbish and mods taking his side


----------



## noie (1 August 2010)

I am always in favor of people stating their opinions (here is one of mine)
what people do with it is up to them.
If they state a fact, only a fool will take it as one, unless the person is family then you definitely check it 

Pro and Con, is needed in every decision, 
i like it , i don't like it, is also nice, when dealing with binary choices.

The benefit and value of this forum to me is all your collective differences, and they ability for me to treat your opinions like stocks themselves and go back in time and see how you have performed.

i hope with time i can add my own value.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 August 2010)

condog said:


> Good by all leaving asf for the other forum for good, sick to death of nuns rubbish and mods taking his side




cya.

Rubbish = alternative viewpoint?

shame you feel that way, it has been  good having two sides to the story in this thread and has led to some intresting discussion at times.

I previously today asked for a post to be removed as i had made a mistake which could have led to ppl having a negative viewpoint on this stock and would have led to a slanging match. The MODS  removed the posts   for the overall good of the thread ..NOT because you were attacking me personally..but for the quality of the thread and the rules by which we must abide here.

The mods here are fair and believe you me i have copped my fair share of infractions from this thread also .


anyhoo toodlepip and good luck with whatever you end up  doing 

or  you could always just discuss analysis instead of getting so personal in these matters.


----------



## estseon (1 August 2010)

McCoy

"I always find it interesting that AUT makes such a big play in its exploration reports about the heavy hitters in the oil and gas industry with acreages abutting AUT's acreage."

Another possibility is that AUT is pointing out that the trend is being proven all around its acreage. The chances of a duster must be minimal. That is: exploration risk is near zero despite the inclusion of potential non-productive wells in the ADI Target Statement valuation report. This also suggests that NPV discount rates inflated to accommodate risk may be reduced in future reserves appraisals. That was suggested in one of the previous broker reports - can't remember whether it was ADI or AUT but think it was AUT around March time.

This, of course, is speculation.

However, the level of investment and successful drilling in the surrounding acreage must provide some comfort and will justify significant investment in infrastructure by the pipeline companies.

There is a further point:

Before Hilcorp, I just couldn't believe Petrohawk's claim to be able to drill a well for c$5.5m in less than a month....The JVPs made repeated reference to Petrohawk figures encouraging shareholders to use them as some form of benchmark. It would seem that they were justified in so doing.

The Board cannot speculate on what it will be able to do on the AUT acreage. It can point to what is being done all around, and what has been achieved, and it can infer that we can look at what is being done by other operators in neighbouring acreage as a guide to what may be achieved on our acreage.

There's absolutely no reason for them to tout for buyers over the next 12-18 months, IMO. They are cashed up for the drilling and the infill acquisitions.


----------



## Joe Blow (1 August 2010)

I would just like to clarify a couple of things here.

Firstly, I do not consider whether or not someone holds a stock to be relevant to their input into the various stock threads here at ASF. In fact, motivation is largely irrelevant as long as there is genuine analysis (of any kind) or pertinent information being posted. It's up to those reading the thread to decide whose analysis they agree with more.

Secondly, it takes many views to make a market. There is nothing wrong with being bullish or bearish on a stock as long as you can back up your assertions or present analysis to support your point of view. Personally, I think that threads where multiple points of view are presented tend to be the most useful as they provide different perpectives and a variety of avenues for further investigation.

I would also like to point out that the role of myself and the moderators in stock threads is not to decide whose analysis is correct and interfere in the thread on that basis. Our role is to enforce the site rules and make sure everyone behaves themselves. If you can demonstrate that someone is deliberately posting false or misleading content then by all means let us know about it. Otherwise, it is our job to stay on the sidelines. We do not take sides in disputes and everyone is judged by the same set of rules.


----------



## Kremmen (1 August 2010)

condog said:


> Kremmen, i get what your saying, but this is always a forseeable proposition in SPP's imo in the ones ive been involved with.




This depends on the structure, though. EKA's rights offers have all been able to be subscribed to 100% by all holders. I've been involved in other capital raisings in the past which were structured more similarly to AUT's, but didn't cap the amount or allowed over-subscriptions.


----------



## 5haretrader (1 August 2010)

condog said:


> Good by all....






Sad story if he's serious. Given that condog sparked up alot of the discussion on this forum before AUT really took off it's a shame that he has become so inclined to leave this interesting discussion because I feel the best of AUT is yet to come.


----------



## mir (1 August 2010)

nioka
The AUT management are well aware of the value of our acreages and I'm as sure as i can be that what happened to ADI won't be happening to AUT.


----------



## tonudiki (1 August 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Sad story if he's serious. Given that condog sparked up alot of the discussion on this forum before AUT really took off it's a shame that he has become so inclined to leave this interesting discussion because I feel the best of AUT is yet to come.




Hey Condog, I hope you will change your mind and keep on posting here. Your posts have been very encouraging and informative for a holder of AUT like myself and you have provided very good responses to what IMHO have usually been unduly pessimistic views from some other posters. 

 I am sure that the majority of the actual HOLDERS of AUT shares who read this board would like you to stay, otherwise the pessimistic view could prevail.


----------



## Kremmen (1 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> lis it because i provide the other side to the stuff here that my comments are regarded as "low content" ?




No, it's because you just say the same thing over and over and over again without providing anything new. You've made a few interesting posts and then said the same thing umpteen times. It's just plain tedious. Plus, it encourages others to either re-state their position (likewise, tedious -- likewise, reducing content!) or to leave.

Such behaviour is annoying and destructive.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> No, it's because you just say the same thing over and over and over again without providing anything new. You've made a few interesting posts and then said the same thing umpteen times. It's just plain tedious. Plus, it encourages others to either re-state their position (likewise, tedious -- likewise, reducing content!) or to leave.
> 
> Such behaviour is annoying and destructive.




sorry , i was just trying to provide a balanced view in this thread 

I was asked to provide the analaysis i have been referring to, i provided it as it was said i had provided none during this thread.

yes it was tedious looking it back up and reposting it but it was in direct reference to the matter on which the poster was implying i had made none.

i have posted an up to date chart accompanied by my basic analysis on that chart a couple of posts ago.

it is currently in a trading range so there is no need to update every single bar , but   once it breaks out (either way) i will be happy to provide analysis as it happens then.

Hopefully there will be no more of this round in circles rubbish and everyone can just move on forward presenting both sides of analysis ( for and against)

my apologies and i will only post here if the thread becomes unbalanced again.

two sides to every analysis and i was just posting the other side of the coin.


----------



## nulla nulla (1 August 2010)

condog said:


> Good by all leaving asf for the other forum for good, sick to death of nuns rubbish and mods taking his side




Somehow I don't think this will be the last we hear from you Condog. Your enthuisiasm, devotion and seemingly blinkered ability to see the upside of any and all information available in respect of this share, makes it hard to believe you will abandon it now.
The cautious posts of nunthewiser and one or two others in contrast to the enthuisiatic posts of yourself and one or two others hardly seems a valid basis for packing your bags and running away. 
Personaly I would prefer to see you stay as for each cautious post that has been made you have made several more posts, many of them loaded with direct and indirect information that impacts on the present and potential future value of this share.
The proof of the pudding of course as to whether now was/is the correct time for boldness or caution will be the test of time .


----------



## nioka (2 August 2010)

By AAP | 02.08.2010 07:16 AM 

NYMEX

World oil prices climbed on Friday as investors shrugged off concerns that the US economic recovery could stall following a slower economic growth rate in the second quarter.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, rose 59 cents to $US78.95 per barrel.

London's Brent North Sea crude for September also gained 59 cents to $US78.18 per barrel.

Prices fell below the $US77 level after the US government announced early on Friday that growth slowed dramatically to 2.4 per cent in the second quarter of this year, but the oil market recovered in line with Wall Street stocks.

The market performed generally well for the week given the big US inventory build and disappointing economic data, traders said.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 August 2010)

AUT had been 3c up today and now back towards 1.5c up which is good.  I take it that was from the quarterly report. Hopefully there will be a few more up days!.


----------



## Sdajii (2 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> AUT had been 3c up today and now back towards 1.5c up which is good.  I take it that was from the quarterly report. Hopefully there will be a few more up days!.




I hope so! I doubled up at 82c last week. I was hoping to get in a bit lower, but it seemed clear it wasn't going to happen, and as it turns out my orders of 78 and 77c were too optimistic! (looks like you were right, Nioka, anyone hoping to jump in around the mid 70s is going to be disappointed by now!). The most aggressive part of the profit taking after the SPP should be over now (it wasn't aggressive enough for my liking! Hehe), so hopefully with that out of the way we can move up


----------



## nunthewiser (2 August 2010)

Lachlan6 said:


> I came across AUT tonight and am very glad I did. Super chart, suggesting higher prices are on the horizon. These sideways accumulation patterns are very positive after a strong run higher. Buy order in at $0.85.






I take it you entered today?



As expected (as indicated on chart a couple of posts back) there was a bounce today. 

Volumes markedly lower today from last few sessions on this bounce 

From here is where it can get fruity .. will be expecting a sharp move either way from here sooner rather than later.

I will be waiting either side of this breakout ( up or down ) for my entry.

Previous targets given  still stand, but no actual bias on which way i prefer.

Any of you fellas take the quick skim today or you in for  the long haul
regardless?


----------



## Slipperz (2 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> I take it you entered today?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




LOL

Okay I'll fess up to a quick few grand and yet another exit.

Swung over to AZZ for the week to see what happens with their acreage deal.

It's the big players snapping up the acreages in the eagleford now cos they have the serious cash.

Probably a few of them casting an eye over AUT's results as well.

Interesting times!


----------



## Huitzii (2 August 2010)

I think that AUT has a much higher probability of breaking higher than breaking lower.
As you know the sellers have been controlling this for quite some time and we have held on quite well to stay above the 81.5 cent resistance.
Any day now we will see the reserves upgrade announcement and that will determine where this stock is going short term.
Hopefully now the dust has settled and we can see some good gains again.
I hold AUT and the next few weeks will determine if I will hold this one or just bail out for some quick bucks,I have no doubt in my mind that we will see some rises, it is yet to be seen how substantial they will be.
Always DOYR


----------



## nioka (2 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> LOL
> 
> Okay I'll fess up to a quick few grand and yet another exit.!




Not my choice of timing to be out of this stock. In my view there is more risk associated with being out than with being in. Capital gains tax will keep me holding most of mine for a few months yet anyway so it is an easy decision.


----------



## cmxd (2 August 2010)

condog said:


> Good by all leaving asf for the other forum for good, sick to death of nuns rubbish and mods taking his side




Condog worked very hard to contribute for this thread, it doesn't matter it is mid night or early morning, he always keep posting to help others. I believe most of people in this thread will miss him if he left. When I first time entry this thread, I know nothing about *AUT *. I read every post that was from condog. I like his post with detailed information and analysis. It's really helpful. Condog, please go for a break and come back!


----------



## J&M (3 August 2010)

cmxd said:


> Condog worked very hard to contribute for this thread, it doesn't matter it is mid night or early morning, he always keep posting to help others. I believe most of people in this thread will miss him if he left. When I first time entry this thread, I know nothing about *AUT *. I read every post that was from condog. I like his post with detailed information and analysis. It's really helpful. Condog, please go for a break and come back!





I agree I would have know nothing about Aut or Adi and Aaz without  his posting 
the constant company details 
if your gone Gondog. Thanks for the in-depth details 
I do hope you come back after taking a break 
James


----------



## nioka (3 August 2010)

Extract from "the Bull" today,

"Oil stocks have to be one of the most unloved sectors in the markets today. The recent general-stock-market and oil corrections combined with the incredibly-negative psychology spawned by the BP oil spill have driven oil stocks down to deeply-oversold levels. This swoon has also left this sector very undervalued, a barren wasteland strewn with great bargains for investors."


----------



## Sdajii (3 August 2010)

Still no sign of that downward movement  Still happily holding 



nioka said:


> Extract from "the Bull" today,
> 
> "Oil stocks have to be one of the most unloved sectors in the markets today. The recent general-stock-market and oil corrections combined with the incredibly-negative psychology spawned by the BP oil spill have driven oil stocks down to deeply-oversold levels. This swoon has also left this sector very undervalued, a barren wasteland strewn with great bargains for investors."




Why does that make you bang your head?


----------



## nioka (3 August 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Why does that make you bang your head?




In frustration that investors dont see the whole picture, value oil higher and realise that peak oil is here or if not here then very close. The dearer it is then the longer it lasts and the faster the alternatives, including gas, will be developed.


----------



## Sdajii (3 August 2010)

nioka said:


> In frustration that investors dont see the whole picture, value oil higher and realise that peak oil is here or if not here then very close. The dearer it is then the longer it lasts and the faster the alternatives, including gas, will be developed.




Oh, I see. From an investment point of view it seems like a good thing to me (more time to stock up while it's undervalued - perhaps I am just patient), but I see your point about low prices resulting in hideous overconsumption. Every day I see a world filled with the insanity and it really bothers me. When oil runs out (well, probably a bit before then) most of us will die. Wasting the resource which is keeping us alive is madness, literal suicide, and I feel like banging my head too. I suppose I just wasn't keeping an eye open for that sort of train of thought in an investment thread.


----------



## estseon (3 August 2010)

"...but I see your point about low prices resulting in hideous overconsumption..."

I'm not so sure about that. The developing nations such as India and China have a lot of catching up to do and all of that catching up has energy demand implications.

Demand in the 'west', that is, the developed nations, might even reduce through greater efficiencies, alternate sources and the transfer of manufacturing to the developing nations.

The oil futures market seems to be watching the US economy (according to what Bloomberg has been saying) - at the moment.

My view is that the longer term trend towards excess of demand over supply cannot be disturbed by the current uncertainty and turbulence. But that does not mean that there are not dangers out there for investors in the meantime. Whenever you see reference to hedge fund buying in a delicate market such as we seem to have at the moment, don your flak jackets.

And watch out for this kind of thing:

"Nexus Energy Ltd. rose the most since October 2008 in Sydney after the Australian newspaper said some shareholders were approached about a possible takeover bid. The company said it isn’t in talks and hasn’t received any offers"

There has been a certain amount of speculation in the London market also and some opportunist bids in various sectors.

AUT has issued a substantial number of new shares and so far there is no evidence of dumping to take a quick 10%. Let's hope that the Board has placed the shares with strong investors. AWE demonstrated how easy it is to gain control from a 34% launchpad. So, hang on to your shares and keep the prowlers at bay.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (3 August 2010)

Anyone received their cheques yet?

I'd like to apply the funds to other investments ASAP.  Bit frustrating that I haven't received my cheque for the unused portion of my SPP application yet.


----------



## nioka (3 August 2010)

Reproduced from another forum. With permission. 

"Investing is all about risk versus reward. The greater the risk usually the greater the reward. I believe that AUT breaks all the old rules. Lets look at the risks.

1. Are they still wildcat prospecting.
2. Do they have to fund further drilling.
3. Do they have to find a credible operator.
4. Are they operating in a hostile unstable country
5. Is the management inexperienced.
6. Do the directors just raise cash to fund an extravant lifestyle.

I have asked these questions regarding another stock featured on XX and the answers were YES to all questions and the stock still has followers, remarkable isnt it. Yet here with AUT all the answers are no. Ask questions for AUT like; 
1. Are they producers.... Yes
2. Have they sufficient funds for further development...Yes
3. Do they have a credible operator.... Yes
4. Are they operating in a safe stable country.... Yes.
5. Is the managemant experienced.... Yes
6. Are the directors using your money wisely... Yes

So whats the problem. I dont have a problem having my money in their hands."

Seems to me the rewards could be great and the riskiness was in the past


----------



## cmxd (4 August 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Anyone received their cheques yet?




Hi McCoy,

Please check, I have received cheque.

Thanks,


----------



## McCoy Pauley (4 August 2010)

Got my refund cheque today, so that'll go straight into the bank tomorrow.

Looking forward to seeing the report on reserves which should be due soon.


----------



## justiceotp (5 August 2010)

OK this things off and running a bit this morning and we have no Condog to keep everyone informed of this mornings release and to enjoy what he has said would happen. They have said in the release the reserves would be announced mid August.


----------



## AngusSmart (5 August 2010)

justiceotp said:


> OK this things off and running a bit this morning and we have no Condog to keep everyone informed of this mornings release and to enjoy what he has said would happen. They have said in the release the reserves would be announced mid August.




Perfect, just enough time for me to get my top up in..

wishing i could have done it earlier this week @ around .81 tho


Come back CONDOG!!!


----------



## jancha (5 August 2010)

justiceotp said:


> OK this things off and running a bit this morning and we have no Condog to keep everyone informed of this mornings release and to enjoy what he has said would happen. They have said in the release the reserves would be announced mid August.




Yes i tend to agree.
Seems like Nuns lost interest also since Condog exited which makes you wonder if in fact it was more about stirring the pot. lol


----------



## nioka (5 August 2010)

News releases are available from the ASX website. Todays news shows good results, 57,000 BOC ion 60 days from  Rancho Grande. Plus gas. The well is paying its way now. Kowlick making good progress and remember it was the one that initially gave the sound of elephants. It could be a big one. Then there are the latest drilling results for Turnbull still to come. Plenty to watch for here. The SP today reflects the news.


----------



## nunthewiser (5 August 2010)

jancha said:


> Yes i tend to agree.
> Seems like Nuns lost interest also since Condog exited which makes you wonder if in fact it was more about stirring the pot. lol




Nope.

My input into this thread has been to keep an even balance. I presented analysis on the flip side of the " sure Thing" rantings that were happening here on an hourly basis.

I couldnt care less about condog.

watching AUT like a hawk at present will post further analysis IF this channel is broken and a clear continuation of long term uptrend stays intact.


----------



## professor_frink (5 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Nope.
> 
> My input into this thread has been to keep an even balance. I presented analysis on the flip side of the " sure Thing" rantings that were happening here on an hourly basis.
> 
> ...




Nun, are you referring to the channel on the chart I've attached below? Just trying to get an idea of what you are looking at

Considering the time it's taken in the highlighted range, and without knowing too much about the company, a close on today's highs that's also above the recent resistance could be a half decent entry for a short term trade


----------



## nunthewiser (5 August 2010)

professor_frink said:


> Nun, are you referring to the channel on the chart I've attached below? Just trying to get an idea of what you are looking at
> 
> Considering the time it's taken in the highlighted range, and without knowing too much about the company, a close on today's highs that's also above the recent resistance could be a half decent entry for a short term trade




Yep . a clear bust out north of that channel would see me take an entry . NOT on todays action as yet tho... big chance of it returning to base of channel on todays action so far ... watching like a hawk ..... 

scroll back a bit mate i have posted chart and MY  unique form of analysis on the thoughts on this current channel


----------



## professor_frink (5 August 2010)

ok sweet as nun thanks for clearing that up. Good luck to the rest of the holders, looks like it's been a decent day for you all so far


----------



## AngusSmart (5 August 2010)

Finished half a cent from the high, and didnt go below opening..

good day for AUT.

What are others predictions for reserves upgrades where will the share price be heading once this is announced.

very happy to be holding at the moment!


----------



## nulla nulla (5 August 2010)

Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and volumes are nothing to get excited about. For the time being my money is staying in my wallet.


----------



## Huitzii (5 August 2010)

IMO today sent a message out to those waiting for a low entry.
The trend has now changed into a northerly direction, tomorrow is another day and could see some consolidation but it could also just as easily continue its current trendline (bright green)
If AUT sees some good volume tomorrow it has great potential ,soaring to new highs.
just wait and see I suppose.
This chart and trendlines are only my opinion and you may see it totally different so please don't treat this as a buy signal as it is my thoughts only.
DYOR


----------



## condog (5 August 2010)

Nice to be missed by those who count. Got several emails, the posts and plenty of PM's which somewhat tempered my frustration and anger. 

Ive added to my ignore list in the hope of being able to have an intelectual discussion. 

And lovely to see above a chart that imo reflects reality.

MACD's have crossed, buy sell imbalance has *partially* returned to pre consolidation levels. If we get a nice night on the DJIA and strong oil support we hopefully will see the true breakout occur tommorow. Thats just opinion not factual.

Pretty obvious in my opinion by now those 40c bounces and 72c support levels are out of the equation barring a catastrophe. As shown above theres a strong resistance/ support level been established around 82c. 

Mid August for the reserves upgrade is 10 days away which is lovely timing, as all the traders that jumped in today, and possibly tommorow will surely be providing a little exit pressure in a week to 2 weeks time when Kowalick, T3 the reserves upgrade and possibly a new spud or two have or are bing announced.

Those flows today for Rancho are simply staggering. To see so little decline and have two wells producing +or- 1000boepd is simply awesome from a well economics point of view.  Rancho has provided $5M in revenue already as would have Morgan. Both should be completely paid off and massively contributing toward hilcorp repayment of other wells by the time we have our 90 day flows.

The other beautiful thing for those that follow the story closely enough is , it appears the reserve upgrade will be classsified 2P or 3P rather then the current 2C imo. That being the case we have bought in at a substantial discount to what 2P reserves would be priced at. With 9 from 9, it would appear that its possible we may end up eventually, perhaps next July or August with a pretty substantial 1P or 2P number. Again speculation and opinion.

Kowalick going to 6500 ft will  likely imo produce some great results. From memory it was extremely liquid rich with 900+boe the first time round on a much much shorter lateral. So im speculating / guessing we might see IP's int he order of 1500+, but depends if they go the highly restricted choke option again. In which case the trade off will be lower IP's and better declines.

Theres also new well application been lodged since we spoke last called Luna and an alteration to the Kowalick well, im guessing for the lenght modification.

Cheers to all, see how it goes.


----------



## condog (5 August 2010)

From PEtrohawk

"
However, I will point out that we now have four wells with over 360 days of production, 13 wells with over 180 days of production and 22 wells with over 120 days of production. Based on the extent of this database, *we now believe that restricted rate practices support a change in the average first year decline from approximately 80% to 85% to a first year decline approximating 45% to 55%, with some wells displaying declines that could be as low as 25% and 30%.*   "

Perhaps our restricted rate flows on Turnbull where done with this information at hand.  Will be very nice if we can get declines as low as 25-55%


----------



## Huitzii (5 August 2010)

Welcome back Condog I've missed your informative posts, and regular updates on all the fundamentals of this stock.


----------



## estseon (5 August 2010)

condog

I don't think that Hilcorp need any teaching. Their specialisation is re-completions - you can see that from the TRRC web site. What will be interesting is to see if they get proportionately higher flow from Kowalik 1R's 6,500ft - although we won't know if they are choking back to the same extent as Rancho, for instance.

I don't know anything about charts (except that they represent historical behaviour of investors) but it could be that finalisation of the capital raising may allow investors to re-focus on fundamentals. There has been no wall of placing shares hitting the market - that might have been a concern.

It will be interesting to see what type of condensate ratio Ipanema delivers.


----------



## martyfar (5 August 2010)

I think the last couple of days represent the cusp of northly trend and hopefully a cherio to recent groundhog days,  lots of  news due in the next coupla weeks that may provide the springboard to a serious upward trend 

Welcome back Condog  !!!... missed ya posts mate   twas once stated by a wise ol gentleman   " better to be a wrong optimist,  than a right pessimist"

Good luck to all


----------



## tonudiki (5 August 2010)

estseon said:


> condog
> 
> I don't think that Hilcorp need any teaching. Their specialisation is re-completions - you can see that from the TRRC web site. What will be interesting is to see if they get proportionately higher flow from Kowalik 1R's 6,500ft - although we won't know if they are choking back to the same extent as Rancho, for instance.
> 
> ...




I can't recall ever seeing anything like a precise map of just where the Ipanema acreage actually is, so a bit hard to tell if it is in the "condensate rich" section of the Eagle Ford? From the very very vague outline maps I have seen it is more towards the "dry gas" region, but whether it sits in it remains to be seen? 

 Welcome back Condog. Good to see you posting on here again.


----------



## rockhound308 (5 August 2010)

I wouldn't call the attached image precise but it gives some indication of where the wells and leases are located. The outlines mostly came from old AUT reports and are now out of date and probably never where  to accurate.

 It shows Impanema in orange with the Patino unit well to be drilled next, I wouldn't be surprised if it produced similar condensate ratios as Easley etc as its pretty much on the same trend. 

Anyway (hopefully) the next three wells Patino, Lunar, May will go a long way towards de-risking the rest of the acreage.

The image is NOT accurate so DYOR


----------



## cmxd (5 August 2010)

It is really good timing. Condog came back. We can read the lovely posting again. Tomorrow, the market should be an interesting day.

Good luck for everyone!!!


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

Rockhound thats a beautiful image. The best ive seen to date. From what ive seen Ipenema is more toward the dry cas region, but crtainly most of it appears to be well within the condensate belt. Time will tell. One would think 9 from 9 has already derisked the play, but it certainly will help ahving the far reaches of the play confirmed as economic. Given our neighbours results in every direction its hard to see anything but a confirmation arising.

Esteon yeh they sure know what they are doing, but it would seem it still a case for everyone that the information sharing is helping signiificantly. Looks like the restricted chokes are working with the declines from what Petrohawk are saying and from what we have seen on our own so far. Hopefull those turnbulls will confirm that opinion when there flows come out.

If they are as highly restricted as suggested we can hopefully look forward to some lovely 30/60/90s etc, and one presumes lower maintanance to boot.

The other big positive fromt he petrohawk report was they have been trialing hybrid fracs with no harmful chemicals and having good results. So from an environmental perspective and cost perspective its looking good. Lower frac costs and less pump time was thier conclusion so far.

Right now its still early on the NYMEX with hours till we open, but so far the crude and its futures are looking fantastic from $82ish to $91 out to 2015. Be interesting to see if these oilers are speculating or have leading indicators of a US recovery for oil demand we are yet to hear of. DJIA is down 20 but hoviring most the day so far between -6 and -30, could go either way. Hopefully a positive finish or even neutral will see AUT establish new highs today.  Our buy seel sread is 1034000 to 269000 which is by far the best differential since the CR several moons ago. So all looks primed for a new breakout.

My guess and its only a guess is each well is worth roughly 6.5 to 7.5c imo.  We are owed Turnbull 1, 2 and 3 so around 21c from 88c looking at it on a fundamental basis, plus a small premium for sureing up longhorn. Wouldnt at all be surprised to see us tapping or pushing thru the dollar mark in the next few days. Followed by some profit takers and a pulback consolidation of 5-8c. This is only an opinion. Dont base anything on it and definitely do your own research and seek expert advice always.

Back to bed , its cold.


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

Been an ammendment put in to TRRC today for Turnbul 2. Damn this low word limit is annoying. /even that wasnt long enough. It appears to be just confirming its final coordinates.


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

*Reliance joins Carrizo in Marcellus shale venture*


By OGJ editors 
HOUSTON, Aug. 5 – Reliance Industries Ltd., Mumbai, has taken another step into US unconventional resource plays by entering a venture that envisions the drilling of 1,000 wells in the Marcellus shale fairway. 

A subsidary, Reliance Marcellus II LLC, entered a joint venture with Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc., Houston, through which it will acquire a 60% interest in Marcellus shale acreage now held in a 50-50 joint venture of Carrizo and ACP II Marcellus LLC, an affiliate of Avista Capital Partners. 

Paying a total of $392 million, Reliance will acquire 100% of Avista’s interest and 20% of Carrizo’s interest in the joint venture. New interests thus will be Reliance 60% and Carrizo 40%. 

Of the total consideration, $340 million will be cash, and $52 million will be drilling carry obligations. The latter obligations will provide for 75% of Carrizo’s share of development costs over an expected 2-year development program. 

The joint venture holds 104,400 net acres of undeveloped leases in the core area of the Marcellus shale in central and northeastern Pennsylvania. 

End quote - from Penn Energy dot com
This is RIL's 3rd shale deal already in just a few months.
Equates to just $3754 per net acre. An attractive price indeed.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 August 2010)

Still trying to break through the upper resistance levels but definitely looking more hopeful.
The MACD also gives a good picture, although the gap is narrowing.


The RSI indicates the share entering into the overbought areas.



Although volumes were better yesterday, making the share more liquid and viable for a trade, the consistancy of volumes being bought/sold is still on the low side overall. Proceed with caution.


----------



## AngusSmart (6 August 2010)

I have been trying to get Your money Your call to do an analyst on this stock for weeks!! but have not been able to get through!!

last nite was so busy and would have been prime as the guy from Fat prophets was on there. Needs more promo!


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Although volumes were better yesterday, making the share more liquid and viable for a trade, the consistancy of volumes being bought/sold is still on the low side overall. Proceed with caution.




Volumes where brilliant for this stock, well over a million on an 88c stock. just look at the volume chart, its stand out like dogs billiards. Signalled a massive shift in sentement and a possible drying up of sellers.

The MACD's have crossed exceptionally sharp and its completley broken out from its channell. 

The stochastics look good and the fundamentals and buy sell imbalance supports the strong surge weve seen.

Still its a garbage stock for trading imo, plenty mor with higher volatility and higher vloumes. Not sure why traders are chasing this one. Its fundamentals which is what really counts are in place imo to underpin our next price surge and we are finally seing sellers exercising some desire for more then the post CR 10c.

Oil finished the NY day well and the DJIA only down 5. So everything imo from both a technical and fundamental view point is well and truly in place. Doesnt mean it will happen, but it certainly looks good. Just remmebr there are a few traders that will jump when they see a plateau and there are the nervous CR / SPP holders who know not much about the stock who might look to bail on nerves rather then fundamentals if we have a run. 

To all LT holders sit back and enjoy the ride - if it happens.


----------



## cmxd (6 August 2010)

very good start this morning, just 15 minutes, the price is up to $.91 at typing and volume is 635,227. hopefully it will keep going.


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

cmxd said:


> very good start this morning, just 15 minutes, the price is up to $.91 at typing and volume is 635,227. hopefully it will keep going.




Just as encouraging is the massive buy pressure. Hopefull people now fully appreciate this stock for what it is and what its going to be. Remeber two brokers with targets at 1.23 and 1.32. 

Both those targets where produced when oil was over 10% lower then it is now and prior to the amazing 60 day flows released on Rancho yesterday.

Oils comfrotably holding $79+ lately which should mean an upgrade on the oil price , irrespective of the reserves upgrade. 

Another positive is that this oil price is during our critical phase of paying for our first cash producing assets, which is just brilliant and couldnt have been timed more perfectly.  Compare this to if we where trying to go through this stage last year at oil prices of <$50. $32 more profit per boe going towards repaying those frac and drilling cost. On Rancho thats $1m every 33 days extra towards cost recovery then cash flows.  Got to love those well economics at such a critical stage. I know i do.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (6 August 2010)

condog said:


> Just as encouraging is the massive buy pressure. Hopefull people now fully appreciate this stock for what it is and what its going to be. Remeber two brokers with targets at 1.23 and 1.32.
> 
> Both those targets where produced when oil was over 10% lower then it is now and prior to the amazing 60 day flows released on Rancho yesterday.
> 
> ...




Massive buy pressure vs sell condog.

"51 buyers for 1,234,774 units	19 sellers for 253,514 units"


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

Fantastic buy volumes, on new high on huge volumes relative to this stocks norms and recent volumes.


----------



## AngusSmart (6 August 2010)

Closing on the high of the day again!

loves it! i really wanted to get in another order at 80-95c but looks like its going to have to go elsewhere and i will just have to sit on what i got till all eternity! 

LYC, LNC or into EKA is going to be the the next gamble!


Happy days for all!


----------



## justiceotp (6 August 2010)

check out the sell list on Commsec it has at the 10th price someone selling 615 shares @ $100 i reckon they mean $1


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

yep closed on the high, im watching the fundamentals closer, but this will keep the techies happy.

Check this out.  Every sale after 4pm by the big boys was at 92c. 

and volumes support the rise with 92c as predicted the last few weeks. About time hey.


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

Its a good thing that reserve upgrade has been held back as it may just provide the next leg up when this ones over in a week or two. Certainly looking like buy sell spreads are back to more normal levels.

Id be happy to see  88c Plus 6c for T1, 6c for T2, 4c for T3, 6c on Kowalick, Afew cents for brilliant Rancho declines, and a few cents towards anticipated upgrade, giving us a new platform somewhere around $1.10 to $1.20 late next week.

For sure Hartleys aqnd Euroz will have to upgrade based just on the oil price soon . Those economics at $82 are rediculous compared to $70 and gas is doing just fine as well. I noted in the AZZ report they achieved $5.99 for thier gas last quarter. Thats a brilliant result. Far above the figures ive been using and the broker reports used.


----------



## cmxd (6 August 2010)

What a beautiful day, what a surprised day, but it shouldn't surprise for AUT lover. It is lucky I topped up again yesterday. I need to thank Condog again, it is your effort to keep me be interested in AUT for long time.

Good luck for everyone!!!


----------



## Slipperz (6 August 2010)

Nice to see AUT has finally broken out of it's consolidation.

Back onboard the AUT train.

Next stop the dollar!

Just  looking at the depth at todays close that might be Mondays stop


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

cmxd said:


> What a beautiful day, what a surprised day, but it shouldn't surprise for AUT lover. It is lucky I topped up again yesterday. I need to thank Condog again, it is your effort to keep me be interested in AUT for long time.
> 
> Good luck for everyone!!!




Cheers, appreciated, but dont blame me if it ever heads the opposite way. Lol.

Seriously make sure you do actually do your own research and seek advice. What suits my circumstances may be completely innapropriate for others. I just say it as i see it. 

Seriously though today ive been thinking, i wonder what newbies whove just stumbled accross this stock think, when they way up is it too late, has it all ready run , is thier further gains in it etc.

My answer to myself on this same question and its not necesarily appropriate for you is that certainly the stock carries a lot less risk now then it did when i first invested in it around xmas 2009.

The biggest risks i see is a US recovery hicup causeing a drop in the oil price. Right now that seems under control, but things change quickly and if oil god for bid went back to $30 it would be a tough gig.

The other big risk is having a take over and having to cough up non discounted CGT on your gains.

Then theres the obvious danger risks, operational risks and dry well risks associated with the business. 

Having said all that, price wise right now its fair value ot good value imo. With imo plenty more gains left in it. We have stagnated for 70 odd days post the CR and SPP and failed to put on sp gains on the backk of T1, T2, T3 and the Ranch decline news till today. Add to that the oil price has gone up well over 10% in the same time period since we originally hit 88c. 

In addition we proved the Longhorn acerage is fantastic quality, weve drilled Kowalick to 6500ft, the M&A elsewhere is hot as hot can be. 

So yeh i see lots of value and lots of gains potentially still on offer hopefully over a long period of time. Particularly encouraging is the strong oil prices are so important right now when realistically our company is in a massive transitional phase from explorer to producer. Right now the high oil prices allow us to plough through this most difficult of times with realtive ease. Bringing forward our cash flows and massively increasing our ability to be proactive in our future direction, rather then dictated by questionable economics.

I havent updated my spreadsheets and they may contain errors, but they are posted here on page 17 and i have AUT valed at $1.30 ish as does Hartley and Euroz at the conclusion of 2010.  However mine just like thers need updating to consider the much higher oil and gas prices on offer. I have $3.15 as my target for Dec 31 2011. Just changing the oil price alone to $77 and Gas to $5.25 i get $1.50 and $3.49.

Again please please do not rely or act on these opinions or figures, they may contain errors and they are only my opinion which in no way considers your situation. But i hope they help. 

The reserves upgrade might or might not make these figures completely irrellevant . As if its big and they go to 2P then it may blow these figures out of the water. Its a bit of an unknown quantity and reaction, but certainly a positive for holders who are in sub 90c imo. 

I been wrong before and i will be wrong again so DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Nice to see AUT has finally broken out of it's consolidation.
> 
> Back onboard the AUT train.
> 
> ...




Its encouraging, but rest assured sellers will be enticed and it will be harder to get there then what it seems tonight.


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

*EOG Resources Reports Second Quarter 2010 Results*

blah blah blah.....

In the Eagle Ford horizontal crude oil shale play in South Texas, EOG also reported consistent production results. The Darlene #2H, in which EOG has 50 percent working interest, commenced production at 1,033 Bopd with 423 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcfd) of natural gas. Recently, EOG completed its first two wells in Wilson County. The Borgfeld #1H and #2H began production at 707 and 836 Bopd, respectively. EOG has 100 percent working interest in the wells. As previously reported, EOG is operating a modest five-rig drilling program while gathering and interpreting additional 3D seismic data. To date, EOG has drilled and completed 31 wells and has 25 wells awaiting completion across its 505,000 net acre position in the Eagle Ford trend's mature crude oil window. Toward year-end, EOG plans to ramp up drilling activity to a 12-rig program and operate an average of 14 rigs during 2011. 

*Also Worth a Read - On Pioneer our neighbours*
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pi...-2010-results-2010-07-28?reflink=MW_news_stmp

*Swift Energy Eagle Ford momentum slows in 2Q10*
Published: Aug 5, 2010 
The oil and gas independent noted that, in the Eagle Ford shale, two new wells were drilled, and are currently producing in McMullen County. Four operated and one non-operated Eagle Ford shale wells have been drilled and completed well with average initial production tests of 1,152 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) or 6.9 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (MMcfe/d) with approximately 40% of initial production volumes being oil. 


*Marcellus Shale firms flock to more oil-rich plays.Thursday, August 5, 2010, 3:59pm EDT*


Earnings galore this week (and last) showed some firms operating in the Marcellus Shale backing away from the natural gas rush in favor of more liquid-rich plays.
...

Pittsburgh-area Chesapeake exec Dave Spigelmyer said the move is not a pull back but a “diversification” of assets.

The company is increasing its activity in the Eagle Ford Shale, a Texas liquid-rich gas field that’s been stealing some of the sexy away from the Marcellus in recent months.

Cabot Oil & Gas and EOG Resources, both Marcellus players, recently signed a joint venture agreement for 18,000 acres in “the mature oil window of the Eagle Ford shale.”


*This Deepwater Company Won't Be Dismantled
By Toby Shute | More Articles 
August 5, 2010*


Houston rapper Bun B isn't the only one giving a shout-out to the Appalachians these days. On its second-quarter conference call, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) tossed out an estimate of "well over one billion barrels of oil equivalent" in risked resource potential across its acreage in the Marcellus shale. That's net to the company, and accounts for the portion vended to joint venture partner Mitsui (Nasdaq: MITSY).

The Marcellus is just one of a handful of resource plays that Anadarko is really starting to ramp up. The shale plays -- the Marcellus, Haynesville, and Eagle Ford -- collectively brought production growth of 75% compared with the first quarter. The Haynesville is clearly the lowest priority right now, with only one non-operated rig running at the end of the quarter. The Eagle Ford, on the other hand, is a major new focus. Anadarko likes the joint venture model so much that it's looking to cut a similar deal down in Texas.


*Eagle Ford Shale
Comstock Resources *is hedging a little on its reliance on the Haynesville Shale for future growth and has initiated a position in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. The company has 18,000 net acres under lease and like every other exploration and production company is focusing on its properties here that are in the oil window of the play. 

Comstock Resources is targeting the acquisition of another 10,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford Shale, and will transfer one of its contracted rigs from the Haynesville Shale to start up development in the third quarter of 2010. 

Comstock Resources will move slowly in the Eagle Ford Shale, with only 3 wells planned in 2010 at a total cost of $13.7 million. A total of $104 million will be used in 2010 to acquire leasehold here.


*AUGUST 4, 2010, 10:30 A.M. ET.Anadarko: To Announce New Shale Joint Venture By Year-End*
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) said Wednesday it's planning to announce a joint venture in the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas by year end


----------



## condog (6 August 2010)

have a read of this and plug some numbers on AUT. Calculate it for the end of next week or so when Kowalick and Turnbull will be flowing and give them some conservative figures. 

USing this method sure makes AUT seem a steal.

http://www.financialsensearchive.com/fsu/editorials/2010/0111.html

Using super conservative figures of 70000 per boe with 3000 boepd and applying 180 wells at just 10% of future value gives AUT a current value of $1.82

Worth a read and think about imo.


----------



## condog (7 August 2010)

condog said:


> Using super conservative figures of 70000 per boe with 3000 boepd and applying 180 wells at just 10% of future value gives AUT a current value of $1.82




Note : error in above calculation

Using 70000, 15% interest in 3400 boepd at 70000 per boe and 180 wells at 14m, current valuation at 10% of future NPV comes out at $1.13 based on 180 wells across acerage.

Using 4000 boepd, @15% , 70000 boepd, 180 wells , 14M NPV, 20%, gives a current valuation of $2.15 using this method.

Using 4000, 15% 70000, 250 wells , 25%, 16M NPV gives a current valuation of $4.10. With 10% NPV for acerage it gives $1.74

These are beginning to be in line with ADI figures. ADI got 42c/23c=1.82 x its price as its TO price.

1.82 x 92c for AUT works out at around $1.67, confirming the above $1.74 is in line with correct valuation based on applying a value to future wells and acerage.


----------



## condog (7 August 2010)

A December 24th report by Peters & Co., a Calgary-based securities firm that is an oil and gas boutique, showed that the average purchase/sale price for oil weighted production in Q4 2009 was $100,000 per flowing barrel. 

This is up more than 50% from the Q3 valuation of just over $60,000. (Oil and gas equivalent is the way the industry puts the two commodities into one valuation, usually at 6:1 ratio of gas-to-oil).

The report showed that valuations for natural gas weighted purchases also jumped up more than 50% in Q4, from $35,000 per flowing boe to $54,700

.....

To recap, besides the increasing oil price, the market is seeing these significantly higher valuations because the NPV of these wells has been increasing, especially as improvement in technology – specifically multi-stage fracking – has greatly improved economics.  Plus the high IP rates in the new tight oil and gas plays heavily increase NPV. 

And as I’ve mentioned in several stories, the industry is still finding ways to increase recoveries, cash flows and NPVs.  It’s an exciting time to be investing in the energy sector.

Another reason for high valuations is that these unconventional plays are geologically quite consistent, so the seller is wanting – and getting – more of that near-certain future cash flow.  The probability of the buyer producing the maximum theoretical potential of that land is very high.  With consistent geology and 3D seismic, buyers have nowhere near the risk they did in deals done a decade ago. 

That’s why I’m seeing transactions done as high as *$175,000 and $200,000 per flowing boe*.  And it’s having an immediate, positive, impact on junior and intermediate oil stocks in Canada. 


From: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16413.html

Using $100,000 per boepd from AUT and 25% valuation of its acerage with 180 wells to spud I get a TO  valuation of $2.69. Assuming thats a 50% TO premium, then its valuation to a holder right now using this method is $1.79......   just throwing them out there for inteligent discussion. Pls cross check, as may contain errors.


----------



## condog (7 August 2010)

*AUT Gets Coverage in the Australian on 19th July with $1.64 Valuation*

Wall is also very bullish about Aurora Oil & Gas (AUT) and its onshore Texas operation; he has put a $1.64 a share valuation on the stock (against Friday's close of 85.5c).

So, because investors are obviously now listening to the US story, we felt we should tell you what else Wall has reported from his recent visit to various Australian operations in the home of the brave.

Well worth a read, covers a number of other junior oilers including SSN, ETE, SEA which i really like but dont hold, AMU, STX, EKA, KTA  and a heap of other minows from resources like IMA DRX and a few more Haselhurst stocks.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...us-drill-stories/story-e6frg9ex-1225893643800


----------



## condog (7 August 2010)

DJIA down 21 overnight after being tripple digits on unemployment numbers early in the session. There are clearly jobless issues with only the manufacturing sector adding numbers. Finance and construction are still shedding jobs. The overall % hasnt fallen, but thats partially due to people leaving the workforce, due to retirment etc.

Oil fell sharply by $1.30 to hold over $80.70 which is fine.

This comsec screen dump similar to that posted above by Slipperz paints a pretty picture for monday if the weekend holds up. 1.4M v 137.9K imbalance

93.5 offer, but realistically 94c, looks nice again, havent seen that for a while, it used to be the story we saw most mornings. Welcome back i say. 

Remember the pre CR days, hey if you want AUT, pay up casue now one wants to sell. Be nice if they are back wont it.


----------



## Slipperz (7 August 2010)

That depth reminds me of six months ago!

I think we are cleared for liftoff now.

Resistance has been smashed on increasing volume.



If the buyers keep coming on Monday there is surely going to be another price spike.

The way i'm seeing that chart (and I'm just speculating here) the last little selldown I highlighted on increasing volumes might have been the final washout from the SPP?

Might have spooked a few on the sidelines an kept a lid on the action for a few days?

All done with that now , time for the next leg up!


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (7 August 2010)

Personally, I'll think about selling out/profit taking around the $1.02 stage. Will net around $2,000 however will get hit %43 CGT.  See how it goes. Screen dump does look good for Monday condog.


----------



## condog (7 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Personally, I'll think about selling out/profit taking around the $1.02 stage. Will net around $2,000 however will get hit %43 CGT.  See how it goes. Screen dump does look good for Monday condog.




John why exit at $1.02, have you something better to invest in, do you think thats its limt, why???

Without quoting actual holdings take this philosophy. Trader A buys invests $5000 in to 10000 AUt at 50c and sells 10000 AUT at $1 6 months later. She pays 43% CGT on the $5000 profit leaving a net profit of approx $2850.

The sp drops to 95c and Trader A rebuys AUT with his original $5000 and the $2850 profit. Trader A now holds 8263 AUT shares. Due to prematurely selling and being taxed.  

Even if trader A chooses to reinvest in a different company say SEA for example. Trader A can buy 26166 at $30c, but only has the leverage of $7850 worth of stock working for her.

This is fine if SEA has been identified as having significnatly higher growth prospects then AUT. But ti must be more then the lost leverage of the $2150 worth of leverage given up in premature tax paymnet to warrant making the shift. ???


----------



## condog (7 August 2010)

Some might find this free little spreadsheet for valuing oil and gas investments handy. I havent used it just it looked ok. Uses excel. Note please virus check as I and ASF take no responsibility for it. 

If you work out the units bit post it on here please.

http://www.topshareware.com/Oil-Gas-Investment-Calculator-download-43768.htm


----------



## Slipperz (7 August 2010)

Nice find condog.

Currently enjoying a few beers and doing some charting.

AUT is looking the goods now!




This new chart reflects one quarters trading and leaves behind the pre hillcorp era and instead focuses on the  results from the drilling campaign since then.

The upper trend channel is bordered by the morgan result on June 4th.

Only took the directors five days to decide to cap raise after that result!

Any further production successes will put us back in the upper trend channel pretty quickly imho.

Resistance now 88 cents and a fair point for a stop loss.


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

Hey slipperz yeh its certainly looking brilliant on both a fundamental and technical basis, with plenty of news to drive its sp as well. Kowalick and T3 are due, as is the reserves upgrade possibly the following week. 



I see this as its channel. Since hilcorp took over the majority of its time is in that channel. With the exception of the artificially low consolidation of late caussed by oversupply of sellers post Cap Raising and SPP. 

Hence i see it making its way back into that channel pretty quickly now that supply has returned to normal levels. I honestly think we will be breaking through the dollar this week, and if not on the news the following week. I could be wrong. But it certainly looks overdue imo.

I been wrong before, so do your own research and seek expert advice.


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

Even using the 3 month channel which is largely shaped by the consolidation from the Cap raising and SPP, its most likely imo to return to the top reaches of that channel.




A clear breakout signalled late last week witht he change in volumes, and confirmed this week.


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

Look at the 5 day breakout. Combine that with the buy sell imbalance and its looking like establishing itself in the 95-98c range on monday. This is only a guestimate so dont rely on it.


----------



## Slipperz (8 August 2010)

condog said:


> Look at the 5 day breakout. Combine that with the buy sell imbalance and its looking like establishing itself in the 95-98c range on monday. This is only a guestimate so dont rely on it.
> 
> View attachment 38297




I won't be at all surprised to see us back in the "morgan channel" soon.

It's really the effects of the CR that kept a lid on prices these past six weeks.

Ultimately though in one quarter AUT has gone from 65 to 92 cents.

Without the CR I daresay we'd be at 1.20 right now.

As you pointed out T3 and kowalik flow rates due soon which should propel us to the 1.20-130 mark then the reserves report which should drive us up towards the 1.60 mark as per the analyst reports.


----------



## martyfar (8 August 2010)

given that AUT seems poised to trend upwards in the near future,  pending news  related to  T3,  the Kow,  and reserve upgrades.   Other than announcements re. Kow frac / flow rates the other news relates specifically to AUT. 

In previous times the   "accepted" ratio between AUT and EKA has (to the best of my understanding)  been  4 to 1.      Taking into account recent SPP by both AUT and EKA  and any other factors that may impact on the ratio  between the two ......... an thoughts on an updated ratio ???    

I was / am  considering the possibility of AUT making a bid for EKA via a "share swap" arrangement 

without puttin you on the spot Condog I thought you might be just the person ta add up  a few fundamentals and offer an opinion  ...TIA    

Cheers

disclaimer :  LTH  both AUT and EKA


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

I think Nokia and MIR and Slipperz are well tuned to answer this as well.

My opinion and its only an opinion, is that EKA is a prime take over target for someone, as will AUT. But i think a big player will TO AUT much later. Where as EKA is an easy acquisition for virtually anyone.

The 1:4 ratio no longer exists in my opinion, why, cause AUT acerages is now sured up, derisked and funded for drilling, hence AUT imo has a value exceeding about 6:1 at a rediculous minimum. 

Nokia will have something sure to say and it would pay to listen , hes the expert on the swaps. 

But part of my rational is that EKA lacks the acerage, the funding and the wells to be drilled in 2011. But it does have a more likely , sooner TO premium slightly built in imo.

Nokia MIR Slipperz .... over to you...


----------



## WRONG'UN (8 August 2010)

AUT / EKA ratio for the last 365 trading days. It's been in a tight range around 4.0 for a while, currently 3.83.


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

Cheers Wrogun, and thanks for that.

While it shows 4:1 its not a viable ratio on value since Longhorn began development and was sured up with the 3 Turnbulls, Ipenema soon, then basically most of 2011 wells dedicated to wells EKA has no interest in. 

I seriously think on a fundamental basis its 6:1, clearly at this stage the market doesnt agree, but thats partially due to our post CR , SPP hangover and partially due to the speculation about EKA being an imminent take over target imo.


----------



## estseon (8 August 2010)

"My opinion and its only an opinion, is that EKA is a prime take over target for someone, as will AUT. But i think a big player will TO AUT much later. Where as EKA is an easy acquisition for virtually anyone."

Everyone is entitled to an opinion but, I would suggest, only a reasoned opinion is of any value to others.

So, starting with the predator, what are the benefits and what are the costs?

AWE/ADI was a special situation. AWE had a large investment in an associate on its balance sheet but could not consolidate the O&G reserves (which seem to be going from good to better with every successful drilling). 
As was proved, the Australian takeover rules are lax and fail to provide proper protection for private investors in a bid situation where the predator is starting from a platform of a significant holding (in that case, about 34%). 

The double-edged threat in the offer statement was to de-list and change the Board for its own stooges once it had bare control. For that, it needed only 25% acceptance of the offer (measured against the shares not under its control at the time of the offer). That is democracy shafted by any measure. 25% accept and the remaining 75% are elbowed off their investment at a price 2/3rds the PWC conservative valuation.

I challenged the ASX on those threats inserted in the offer statement and after some time (after 8 days) they finally replied  "not our problem, you need to refer it to ASIC" - I have the letters - Thanks, mate, so you don't exercise control over how your market is used? What a jobsworth! Why take 8 days to come to that conclusion and why not refer it yourself? [the UK rule for de-listing requires 75% not 50% - I haven't tracked change of directors]

But AUT is different. There is no disclosed large shareholding of that kind of order or anywhere close. A predator would still have to persuade investors once he has taken out the traders. The predator would most probably have to pay a bidder's control premium.

And, so, how does a predator justify the exercise to gain a series of minority stakes?

What is the corporate logic? 

Sorry for the rant but give us something to chew over.

As to ratios - they clearly need to be re-appraised for share issues and acreage acquisitions. We'll have to wait on the reserves report to see relative values of the different acreages. So far, we "know" that Longhorn is partially in the oil zone but we don't have a clear idea of the boundaries of that assembly of leases.


----------



## nioka (8 August 2010)

I do have an opinion but not as an expert. (An expert is a drip out of control as in X,spurt). I have always worked on the theory that the relative price varies but usually returns to around the ratio that I use. I vary the ratio as the inputs into the calculation change.

It is important to use market cap as well as SP. Then it is important to give EKA credit for having 6.25% interest in the joint area compared to AUT's 10%. (Often I have seen 2 to 1 Quoted.)

AUT gets credit for its other areas. As they get proven they are worth more but they are not yet shown to have the results that are shown in the joint area.

Important also is the fact that in the capital raising EKA have given their existing holders first bite of the cherry... twice.The current one could be said to be a small dividend as one can buy and sell for a 25 to 30% profit.. AUT gave funds the first bite and scaled back the applications of shareholders. EKA gets some credit for this.

Next comes the takeover risk. EKA is in more danger of a takeover than AUT in the immediate future. Depending on the capital gains taxation liabilities at that time it may be a good or a bad thing. I dont want one to happen yet. Capital gains liability also comes into the swap trades situation. 

I have recently sold a few EKA and bought some AUT at a ratio of around 4 to 1. At 5 to 1 I will consider selling AUT and buying EKA. That may change if the results with the wells in AUT only areas prove up. It is a constant review of the fundamentals that determines my relative values.

DYOR though these are only my opinions.

Remember that there is also a daily variation in both stocks and not always do the go the same way at the same time. To take advantage you must buy well on the day and sell well also. Not always easy to do.


----------



## barney (8 August 2010)

condog said:


> While it shows 4:1 its not a viable ratio on value since Longhorn began development and was sured up with the 3 Turnbulls, Ipenema soon, then basically most of 2011 wells dedicated to wells EKA has no interest in.
> 
> I seriously think on a fundamental basis its 6:1, clearly at this stage the market doesnt agree, but thats partially due to our post CR , SPP hangover and partially due to the speculation about EKA being an imminent take over target imo.




Hi Condog,  I certainly agree that AUT are a very highly rated prospect, and I think all AUT holders will do very well into the future (dare I say "going forward"  ...... but I think we all shouldn't forget that EKA in comparison

a) has approx 25-30% less shares on issue atm
b) will earn  65% of the same future revenue that AUT will earn from the original JV acreage ......... and to be honest, the original acreage (at this point in time), seems to be in a pretty "hot" area relative to the surrounding acreages

That means that the bulk of the "ratio" in favour of AUT over EKA is based on the additional acreage which AUT is involved in ...... 

I agree, its looking very promising, and I'm definitely not trying to down ramp AUT in the slightest ..... but on the other side of the coin, I think if the original acreage keeps producing results like it has so far, then EKA may well be the undervalued player in the *short term*, and I think thats why the SP of EKA has held its ground even under the pressure of the current CR

If AUT/Hilcorp hit a "Morgan" etc on their separate leases, then I agree that AUT could "go crazy" , but until that happens I think the 4:1 ratio is a fair and reasonable ball park figure.   

The other thing to consider is that AUT now requires a 9 cent (10%) increase in SP to equal a 2.4 cent increase in SP by EKA ..... and as  AUT approaches that psycho barrier of a dollar, that percentage increase may be harder to break.

No particular point to my ramblings other than both AUT and EKA look the goods, but perhaps EKA should not be discounted too far without further production results from AUT's extended leases

Cheers, and good luck with your investment


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

Hey Barney I see no problems with a lot of what you say. EKA is also fantastic from the perspective its smaller, hence each well NPV adds more relative value compared to the mcap, hence more rapid growth.

However I still say the ultimate driver of value is the large acerage position AUT have and the quality of that acerage. Longhorn on highly restriced chokes with low declines, is lookig possibly every bit as good as the AMI. We dont really know for sure till they unchoke it or till we have a few more to compare. I guess another way to look at it is EKA have achieved a farmin deal on one small protion  of the Eagleford, while AUT has achieved a farmin with twice the interest in the same acerage, plus a massive farmin in Longhorn and a massive farmin deal on Ipenema as well. And all that acerage , as its becoming derisked, with a world class operator is worth mega bucks imo.

What we do know is that on highly restricted chokes the flows where brilliant, and the declines fantastic. Both great stocks imo.

I personally favour AUT for its acerage value and Longhorn exposure, especially since hilcorp confirmed most of 2011 will focus on Longhorn drilling. Thats gunna hurt AWE and EKA at some point in late 2010 to late 2011 imo.


I totally agree with Esteons view and  Nokia on the above ratios. While i truly believe 6:1 is fair the market is not yet convinced and the points Barney raises are both valid and the reason EKA is pegging well at 4:1. To me the problem with retaining 4:1 and even a risk of 5:1, is at some point perhaps after the resrve upgrade a future value to AUT acerage will be applied and when it does, i think any ratio we have at present will be completely broken.

What esteon says is extremely valuable to any holders not looking to trade as it makes the TO much harder, and hopefully any premium significantly more.


----------



## 5haretrader (8 August 2010)

*CHART TIME*. I have my eyes on $1.09 in 10 trading days time and this should come through the goods if the reserves upgrades get released to the market.


----------



## condog (8 August 2010)

5haretrader said:


> *CHART TIME*. I have my eyes on $1.09 in 10 trading days time and this should come through the goods if the reserves upgrades get released to the market.




Hope your right, certainly looks possible on your chart. LAst three runs averaged 40%. If thats the case this time 140% of 82c is $114.8


----------



## 5haretrader (8 August 2010)

condog said:


> Hope your right, certainly looks possible on your chart. LAst three runs averaged 40%. If thats the case this time 140% of 82c is *$114.8*





You never know condog 

We are well and truelly set for another run up and with alot of fundamental positives for the share price to catch up with, I think over a dollar is fair value even before the reserve upgrades get released. Here's hoping!!


----------



## Huitzii (8 August 2010)

Hmmm are you sure that you got them calcs correct on 140%....I get $1.96.

Just as  matter of interest I think AUT will peak at $1.03 in 2 days   just see what happens.
Those 3 last run ups were approximately 20 to 21 cents so 21 cents plus 81.5 cents = $1.02.5 cents.....just my guess


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

Huitzii said:


> Hmmm are you sure that you got them calcs correct on 140%....I get $1.96.




Yep im sure. Try changing the batteries in your calculator.

im talking about a 40% gain, thus for ease of calculation 140%*.82=$1.148

Alternatively 40% * .82 = .328
82c + 32.8c = $1.148


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

*EQT Corporation makes good shale gas money at $4/million btu*
August 8, 2010

.........The Marcellus, the Haynesville and more recently the Eagle Ford, are proving to be low cost sources of shale gas and are thus better able to stand the prices vagaries than the Barnett and the Woodford. Look for all three plays to continue strong through 2010.


http://www.glgroup.com/News/EQT-Corporation-makes-good-shale-gas-money-at-$4-million-btu-49918.html 

Also Worth A Read
*Column : Why not go for shale gas*
..........
Companies entering the shale gas business at this stage will also get first mover advantage in technology and cost economics. This is what will give them a competitive edge when exploration begins there. Projections are that the share of shale gas in the US energy basket will rise steadily in the coming decades. This has encouraged the US power sector to plan a shift toward natural gas and cut emissions. Encouraged by the US’ success, India is also planning to explore and exploit its shale gas reserves. The country remains dependent on coal to meet its primary energy requirements. If India can find a big shale gas reserve, that would dramatically transform its energy landscape. 

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Column---Why-not-go-for-shale-gas/657683/


----------



## Huitzii (9 August 2010)

"Quote:
Originally Posted by condog View Post
Hope your right, certainly looks possible on your chart. LAst three runs averaged 40%. If thats the case this time 140% of 82c is $114.8"

140 %  * 82 = $1.968
thus:
10% of 82 = 8.2 cents
8.2 * 14 (140%) = $1.148
Plus your original 82 cents
= $1.968   
go figure


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

Possibly a couple of tree shakers, or just want to make sure they get them. But whats important is the volumes are fantastic.  10:1

And theres virtually no volume for sale below 99c making it hard for anyone to get a decent sized parcel.


----------



## mattyhammer (9 August 2010)

Huitzii said:


> "Quote:
> Originally Posted by condog View Post
> Hope your right, certainly looks possible on your chart. LAst three runs averaged 40%. If thats the case this time 140% of 82c is $114.8"
> 
> ...




Huitzii. A 40% gain on top of 82c is $1.148 which is what Condog is talking about. Not many shares make a gain of 140% in this sort of time (let me know if you know of any!!). ;-)

I'm happy if it makes is comfortably above $1. As mentioned earlier, this is always a psychological breakthrough and will take time to consolidate over this mark. Nice little jump today although this stock doesn't like unfilled gaps so expect that to be filled over the coming week or so before moving over $1.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 August 2010)

AUT up 6c today so far (6.52%). I'm so glad I listened to you condog, did my own lil bit of research and bought it rather than listened to the detractors.  Might be time for a 90c stop-loss you think?


----------



## Kremmen (9 August 2010)

condog said:


> I seriously think on a fundamental basis its 6:1, clearly at this stage the market doesnt agree




23.5% of AUT's net acreage is in Sugarloaf. All being equal (which we don't know yet), 23.5% of AUT's value is in Sugarloaf. On a per-share basis, EKA gets about 5% less return than AUT, so that would put the ratio at 4.5:1. That would be the absolute maximum, unless you are somehow certain that Ipanema and Longhorn will both out-perform Sugarloaf.

Ipanema hasn't produced anything yet. Removing it from calculations as an unknown for now, 27% of AUT's remaining net acreage is in Sugarloaf. That makes the ratio 3.7:1.

Looks to me that a rational current-day ratio might therefore be 3.7:1, given the earlier start on Sugarloaf. Maybe, if Ipanema and Longhorn perform as hoped, it might rise one day to 4.5:1. Of course, if Ipanema and Longhorn don't perform as well as Sugarloaf, it could be way down on that.

Given the other aspects, such as being a possible takeover target and the head start Sugarloaf has over the rest, lowering the ratio to 3:1 would be reasonable at this stage.

As far as I can see, your 6:1 ratio is firmly in fantasy land.


----------



## Kremmen (9 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> AUT up 6c today so far (6.52%).




Meanwhile, EKA is up 3.5c (14.58%) ... as it should be if it's to get to the 3:1 ratio it deserves.


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

WOW what a day 99.5c high so far. Some silly silly people selling imo, but then again each has thier own strategy.

Somehow i think the detractors may now know they where totally and utterly wrong. You only have to do some calculations to see what this stock is heading whilever oil is high.

John happy to help and glad you DYOR.

Kremman on the Ratio. imo Longhorn has been proven, those flows and high liquids ratios are fantastic, given restricted chokes and Longhorn makes up 65% of the play for AUT. Anyway as I said clearly the market doesnt agree with me yet. With the majority of 2011 drilling in Longhorn i think they will change there tune in coming months. 


And just cracked the dollar after 4 attempts nipped out by tiny sellers.


----------



## Sdajii (9 August 2010)

Well, there we have it! We hit the dollar! Very happy to be holding (EKA as well  ) today! It has been difficult to put my attention on work today!


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

And right on the close some tree shaking dodgey brother puts 1000 on offer at 90c to try and un nerve everyone so he/she can buy in tommorrow. 

Beware of tall poppy syndrome now.


----------



## 5haretrader (9 August 2010)

tall poppy syndrome? how so 

All of us bullish on AUT have got this one spot on, and I don't think there is any way the pessimists can put the mockers on us for that!!


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

Just thought id put it up in lights for all to see. Cause it looks so pretty. Id like to run a tote on when we will hit $2, but then we might get accused of ramping. Id say if oil stays higher then $65 we will be there before end of July 2011.


----------



## AngusSmart (9 August 2010)

Happy to be holding today! had the day off away from the computer  driving around to come home and notice we're at the $1 mark.

was thinking of jumping into eka soon also but **** thats shot up!

perhaps tomorrow! cant wait for this reserves upgrade now!


----------



## Sean K (9 August 2010)

condog, be careful about gloating too much off one out calls.

2 Dec 09 - AAM sp about 35-40c



condog said:


> Looking rediculously good value to me....
> 
> Disc - may or may not own this stock at various times.




6 Dec 09 - AAM over 35c



condog said:


> For a very small company this is like finding Gold .....




Current sp 15c.


----------



## martyfar (9 August 2010)

Great day had by all today,  many thanks to the various posters who contributed their views regarding the  SP ratio that exists (or possibly should exist) between AUT and its little brothere EKA.

I agree that EKA is vulnerable to a TO bid (however not a "done deal"  as was in the case with ADI),  still smarting somewhat with regard to ADI directors decision to offer the entire credit raising  to sophisticated investors and AWE ...akin to sharpening the knife then  handing it to the opportunist  "enemy" on a platter,   call me a sceptic if ya will ,   but a decision almost completely devoid of common sense and commercial governance..... (in my opinion)

EKA seems to have taken a far more sensible approach in their CR (offered the whole amount to existing shareholders)  not only does this reward  the loyal investors, but it also has a secondary effect of offerig a level of protection with regard to an opportunistic take over bid.

If a take over of EKA does in fact eventuate I would hope it comes from AUT in some sort of a share swap arrangement.   Any thoughts ???  views on the liklihood of this occuring ??

cheers  marty


----------



## estseon (9 August 2010)

kremmen,

the Longhorn acreage is comparable in area to Sugarloaf but Ipanema is much smaller. Turnbull is much, much oilier than Rancho and a significant part of Longhorn might prove to be more valuable than an equivalent acreage in Sugarloaf.

Ipanema is a bit of an unknown at the moment.

Because of the variation in condensate ratio even over a few kilometres in Sugarloaf (compare Easley to Rancho & Morgan) it is difficult to guess relative values. We don't even know precisely the boundaries of Longhorn and so can't relate it to the geological trend maps.

It should be a lot clearer after the reserves evaluation is published.

Condog

I love your $114.8.....seriously, though, your target in cents is starting to look attainable in the near future provided that there are no shocks to the market. But it would be unusual not to have retraces on the way up.


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

Kennas i dont own and clearly warned of impending problems.



condog said:


> its a blue skier if they pull it off, but right now they have ruined the trust of most, from the poor communication and questionable press releases of the last 6 months.
> 
> happy to be sitting on the sideline watching with interest. ready to pounce once the figures match the story.
> 
> it seems like its getting better, but if it was as good as they say they wouldn need this cash or the last one in my opinion.




AAM had potential, still does, it has a lot of JORC gold and found a lot more since. Problem is they breached my trust by continually failing to meet deadlines, so i bailed early and let others know.


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

estseon said:


> Condog
> 
> I love your $114.8.....seriously, though, your target in cents is starting to look attainable in the near future provided that there are no shocks to the market. But it would be unusual not to have retraces on the way up.




I too expect a bumpy ride up with constant traders and profit takers. There was plenty of intraday bumps happening today, but the overwhelming bullishness on this stock, once the post CR selling dried up was unstoppable.

We will have our usual pullbacks , consolidations, bearish days, but thankfully the big stagnation from the CR and SPP on the back of 3 weeks of hammered market sentiment is gone. Normality has returned and we willhopefully see responses to each peice of news again once weve caught up to where it should be. Imo round the $1.10 ish.


----------



## AngusSmart (9 August 2010)

condog said:


> Kennas i dont own and clearly warned of impending problems.
> 
> 
> 
> AAM had potential, still does, it has a lot of JORC gold and found a lot more since. Problem is they breached my trust by continually failing to meet deadlines, so i bailed early and let others know.






Might be good again Condog,, John williams is gone! but yes its been a ****ty ride but i needed some diversity of risky stocks in my young portfolio.


----------



## condog (9 August 2010)

Marty I think we at AUT will be ok. We should be able to dictate terms a little more . We have Anne Stewart and ANZ as our big holders. Recently JP Morgan got hold of 20Million which is about 7.26% or so if they havent yet offloaded some??

They havent issued a change in substantial holding notice so i assume its still 7.26%




From Euroz report on AUT website page 18


----------



## estseon (10 August 2010)

condog

the nominee companies are probably holding private investors' dematerialised shares.

I looked at JP Morgan on the web (it was the UK company in the group) and it's an investment management group. There's a good chance that the shares have ended up in one or more of their collective investment funds.

I'm a bit mystified how Fiske came to be listed twice.

It might be an idea to keep an eye on this fund:

http://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/Factsheet.aspx?fundCode=SPCOM&univ=U


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

The DJIA is up, oil is up, oil futures are up, gas dropped 13c, we closed on a new record high yesterday. Buyer demand is still incredibly strong and sellers are in short supply.

Certainly looks good for today. Time will tell.  See how long the bulls can hold out the profit takers.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 August 2010)

A significant breakout through the resistance levels. It would support the idea that it will trade upward from here. Watch for the retraces in the channels and don't be scared to lock in profits.


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

Also be smart

Many here have accidentally had trading parcels become holding parcels due to CGT implications, due to the quality of the stock and theres no shame in that. 

Sometimes on stocks like this traders make wages while holders build wealth. Each to there own, but so far i have not seen any retraces large enough to go anywhere near paying the CGT. 

And while you need to look at the opportunity cost of having stagnent capital, you only have to look at AUT 52 week range from 11c to 1.00 which is some 980% or so profit for the year, to be reminded of the quality of holding here.

And it still sits below analyst targets, valuations and is waiting on a potential huge reserves upgrade. 

This is all opinioon, so DYOR.


----------



## nioka (10 August 2010)

condog said:


> Also be smart
> 
> Many here have accidentally had trading parcels become holding parcels due to CGT implications, due to the quality of the stock and theres no shame in that.
> 
> ...




Tax implications are complicated. To a trader a profit is a profit regardless of the time held. The tax office can declare you a trader if thet say you are a trader. That is why I trade in one account and invest in a totally seperate account. One account gets no capital gains tax advantages the other does.

Worth looking into this aspect for anyone inclined to trade some of the time and also invest long term.

Remember with ADI there was little choice to sell and be forced to take the profit. It will happen again.


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

Our little brother EKA has bought another patch of dirt. 760 acres north east 90 miles NE of thier current acerage. Increases thier overall acerage by 50%. They have a 75%NR interest.


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

nioka said:


> Tax implications are complicated. To a trader a profit is a profit regardless of the time held. The tax office can declare you a trader if thet say you are a trader. That is why I trade in one account and invest in a totally seperate account. One account gets no capital gains tax advantages the other does.
> 
> Worth looking into this aspect for anyone inclined to trade some of the time and also invest long term.
> 
> Remember with ADI there was little choice to sell and be forced to take the profit. It will happen again.




Agreed Nokia, my point is play it smart, sometime holding is the way to go, sometimes trading is the way to go. Each and everyone has thier own circumstances, and they may differ as to which is the best. As you state it may even depend on what name or structure you have as to the best strategy. For some it will be to hold, others to trade. 

My comment was sort of aimed at Nulla comment to lock in a profit. Whilst thats Nullas strategy and it works for him and anyone on a similar strategy, its not necesarily right for everyone.


----------



## martyfar (10 August 2010)

condog said:


> Our little brother EKA has bought another patch of dirt. 760 acres north east 90 miles NE of thier current acerage. Increases thier overall acerage by 50%. They have a 75%NR interest.




thanks for that info Condog,   any more titbits you are able to share ???  eg
cost per acre,  name of operator (hilcorp??) ,  who has the other 25% interest,  any info re obligations to drill wells  ??

TIA    marty


----------



## Agentm (10 August 2010)

source


Re: KKR & Co. L.P. Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-166687)

Ladies and Gentlemen:

Reference is made to the Registration Statement on Form S-1 initially filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“Commission”) by KKR & Co. L.P. (the “Registrant”) on May 10, 2010 and an amendment thereto subsequently filed by the Registrant on June 16, 2010 (File No. 333-166687) (together with all amendments, the “Registration Statement”).  Pursuant to Rule 477 promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933 (“Securities Act”), the Registrant hereby applies for the withdrawal of the Registration Statement together with all exhibits thereto, effective as of the date of this application or as soon as practicable thereafter.

At this time, the Registrant has elected not to proceed with the public offering contemplated by the Registration Statement due to unfavorable market conditions. The Registration Statement has not been declared effective by the Commission and the Registrant confirms that it has not sold any securities pursuant to the Registration Statement.

The Registrant requests that, in accordance with Rule 457(p) promulgated under the Securities Act, all fees paid to the Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with the filing of the Registration Statement be credited for future use.

Upon the granting of the Commission’s consent, please forward copies of the order withdrawing the Registration Statement to the undersigned at KKR & Co. L.P., 9 West 57th Street, Suite 4200, New York, New York 10019 and to the Registrant’s counsel, Joseph H. Kaufman at Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, 425 Lexington Avenue, New York, New York 10017.

If you have questions or require additional information, please do not hesitate to contact Joseph H. Kaufman at (212) 455-2948.


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

USD 821,500 in cash and 900,000 new EKA shares

761 Acres @75% NRI. = 570.5 Net Acres

900,000 shares at say 27c = 243,000

821500+243000=$1064500

1064500/570.5 = $1865 per net acre. 

At $15M NPV per well say 50 acre spacing it can provide 11 wells $165M

Using a 20% value on future NPV , they just added something like from $16 to$32M to the value of a TO of EKA, for a little over $1M dollars. = 10c - 20c per share for a TO.

Wonder who leaked it to the market yesterday?

Smart move imo.


----------



## martyfar (10 August 2010)

condog said:


> USD 821,500 in cash and 900,000 new EKA shares
> 
> 761 Acres @75% NRI. = 570.5 Net Acres
> 
> ...




Arrrrrgh   don't ya luv it,  nice ta see the little guy gettin a well placed punch in now and agin ...thanks for the info Condog


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

New AUT presentation out, it must be being presented to someone by someone??

No biggies, other then they keep mentioning imminent reserve maiden report due. Also they finally talk about closer well spacing.

The other newby is the flow data which looks fantastic. They show T1 on a restricted choke and T2 on a highly restricted choke. That being the case those flows are excellent if in fact they sure up much lower declines, which seems to be the case so far and elsewhere in the Eagleford.


----------



## prgudula (10 August 2010)

Aurora is positioned for an active and successful 2010 and beyond.
Quality Asset / Significant Size
Positioned in one of the premier North American shale plays
Initial 2C net resource of 38mmboe (post farmout and after royalties but before 2010 well results) –maiden Reserves Report imminent
Strong Economics
Strong technical merit, high liquids ratio, good flow rates, low reliance on gas prices
Fast well payback timeframes and majority of development paid out of cashflow
De-risked by Quality Farm Out
Large, competent US Operator experienced with large onshore assets
10 well carry de-risked project
Low Company Valuation Relative to Peer Group and Asset Value
Largest Sugarkane participation of listed juniors with lowest value per acre and per barrel
Pure investment opportunity in to sweet spot within the Eagle Ford
Sound Balance Sheet
No debt, US$40m cash, no debt
Huge Growth Potential
Project maturity through continuous drilling to deliver production and profit growth for many years
25


----------



## rockhound308 (10 August 2010)

Hillcorp have a new well well/lease application on the TRRC. At 1.8 km NE of  Morgan the "Direct access Unit" should be a goodie.


----------



## condog (10 August 2010)

> Aurora is positioned for an active and successful 2010 and beyond.
>  Quality Asset / Significant Size
>  Positioned in one of the premier North American shale plays
>  Initial 2C net resource of 38mmboe (post farmout and after royalties but before 2010 well
> ...



Yes its a good way to finish a preso and that last dot point certainly puts investors nerves at ease.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (10 August 2010)

condog said:


> New AUT presentation out, it must be being presented to someone by someone??
> 
> No biggies, other then they keep mentioning imminent reserve maiden report due. Also they finally talk about closer well spacing.
> 
> The other newby is the flow data which looks fantastic. They show T1 on a restricted choke and T2 on a highly restricted choke. That being the case those flows are excellent if in fact they sure up much lower declines, which seems to be the case so far and elsewhere in the Eagleford.




Interesting to see the covering letter to the ASX from the AUT company secretary advising that the slides were from a presentation being made in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Worth keeping an eye on the share registry in the next few weeks.  AUT could be looking at attracting some interest from south-east Asia and China into the registry.

This post comprises speculation only, so DYOR.


----------



## condog (11 August 2010)

These charts below are from the 6th Oct 09 Broker Presentation from the AUT website. http://www.auroraoag.com.au/media_pres.asp

Thought now where getting away down the track and have our maiden reserve report about to be unleashed they might provide some insight to the way the company and brokers think.

Hartleys are tipping a 300% upgrade from 7% ultimate recovery to 22% ultimate recovery.








Note: I have doctored the last image to show current market capitalisation.


This is the original Resource estimate. Note this is pre farm in so AUT has half these figures Net. 


Form Hartleys most recent report
We are expecting ~50 million barrels of oil equivalent in total reserves (1P, 2P, 3P combined).


> Maiden Reserve Report July 2010
> Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc (“NSAI”) undertook an independent resource estimate over Aurora’s acreage in September 2009, as depicted in the figure below. At this time, no multi stage fracture stimulated horizontal wells had been drilled and a conservative recovery factor for the Eagle Ford Shale of *7% (Best Estimate) was used*. Given well performance on the acreage and recovery factors achieved in other shale plays it is *possible that an ultimate recovery factor of 22% may be more appropriate*. Our time with the Texas Crude geologist also highlighted large potential upside in the development of the shale, as it may be possible to produce from multiple horizons over the interval and also decrease well spacing significantly. This all depends on assumptions around whether the current fracture stimulations are resulting in drainage of a small percentage over a large area, or a large percentage over a small area.
> *Whilst it is hard to predict what assumptions NSAI will use for the maiden reserve report, we believe that there is potential for an upside surprise for the market. A significant portion of the field has been proven by wells (see Fig. 2), which should contribute towards a decent 2P number, although we expect that most reserves will be categorised as 3P until more wells are drilled and there is more production history*.




*Conclusion – Expect Further Upwards Revisions*
Aurora is well funded to participate in up to 40 wells over the next 18 months, with a further 450+ wells possible over the following years. We have only included 330 wells in our current model and have also risked the projects by 20-35% until more wells are drilled and there is more production history. Recent well results suggest that our assumptions are conservative on flow rate, GORs and also drilling costs.
We expect that, as further results are known, adjustments to our assumptions and relaxing of discounts associated with risk will result in upwards revisions to our valuation and price target.
We continue to rate AUT as a Buy and have increased our price target from 102cps to 123cps.

*And Euroz comments*

Our $1.18/sh price target refl ects the valuation metrics applied to Sugarloaf in ADI’s
target statement.
Strong results from the forward programme (particularly Longhorn) will give cause to
reduce our 30% discount factor. Coupled with model economics benefi tting from lower
drilling costs (Euroz assumes US$8m/well vs. current <US$7m) and lower decline rates
(as witnessed by Petrohawk) *this would directionally move our valuation towards $2/
sh.*Corporate machinations are evident from heightening acquisition activity in the play –
Shell, Talisman and Reliance have all recently entered the liquids-prone part of the Eagle
Ford play.
 Investment Case:
AUT is now fully funded to participate in an accelerated drilling programme that has
been driven by IP and production data that are some of the best reported in the Eagle
Ford trend to date. We remain attracted by the leverage to the oil price that is offered
via investment in AUT as well as the low risk and scalable growth to production and
earnings in the medium term. Buy.


----------



## jancha (11 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Yep . a clear bust out north of that channel would see me take an entry . NOT on todays action as yet tho... big chance of it returning to base of channel on todays action so far ... watching like a hawk .....
> 
> scroll back a bit mate i have posted chart and MY  unique form of analysis on the thoughts on this current channel




Watching like Hawk hey Nun?
Just wondering if you took entry in Aut or were stirring the pot just a little as you haven't posted anything much on here since Aut headed up in reasonable volume to $1.
Be interesting to know your thoughts now or have you taken flight?


----------



## sam76 (11 August 2010)

jancha said:


> Watching like Hawk hey Nun?
> Just wondering if you took entry in Aut or were stirring the pot just a little as you haven't posted anything much on here since Aut headed up in reasonable volume to $1.
> Be interesting to know your thoughts now or have you taken flight?




Good post.. I think a lot of people who have been following this thread have been wondering the same...


----------



## nunthewiser (11 August 2010)

jancha said:


> Watching like Hawk hey Nun?
> Just wondering if you took entry in Aut or were stirring the pot just a little as you haven't posted anything much on here since Aut headed up in reasonable volume to $1.
> Be interesting to know your thoughts now or have you taken flight?




Traded it from 90 - 96

and as stated before NO i was not here to stir merely to  keep an even balance to the "sure thing " stuff happening every hour.

currently not in and merely view AUT as a trading stock which i will drift in and out of as i see fit as mentioned other times in this thread.

Now are you merely stirring or are you actually intrested in my trading moves?


----------



## nulla nulla (11 August 2010)

sam76 said:


> Good post.. I think a lot of people who have been following this thread have been wondering the same...




Play the ball, not the man. We are better than this........aren't we? 

I didn't trade it. I was more of the opinion it would retrace. I see it has dropped back from the $1.00 mark and volumes not that hot. 
I hope people locked in some profits. I Will continue to watch for the time being.


----------



## mir (11 August 2010)

" not that hot."
then have a read of this. 


Price Target: $1.50



Reason For Update: Site Visit & Operations Updates



What We Know:           

We have just returned from site, after undertaking a comprehensive review of all operations within AUT's acreage, as well as meeting the Operator, Hilcorp.

Total gross production for the Jun Q from the 6 wells operating over the period totalled 172kbbls and 1.0Bcf (vs. 48kbbls and 404mmscf as at Mar 31).

AUT released the 60 day production results from Rancho Grande-1H - 57kbbls and 163mmscf were produced

First revenues are likely to be received via Kowalik-1H production early in the Dec Q, with first revenues expected from the farm-in wells expected late in the year post the cost recovery (by AMI).

We expect a maiden reserve announcement for AUT within the week.

The Kowalik re-drill was completed to 18,500ft in 20 days.

We understand that Turnbull-3H (Longhorn – AUT 25%) has completed the first of a multi-phased fracture stimulation and clean-up process, designed to harness max. production from all frac-stages.

Turnbull-1H 60 day production data is expected shortly.

The first of the Ipanema (AUT - 30%) wells is due to spud within the week, as is the next Sugarloaf (AUT - 10%) well - Luna-1H.

Petrohawk's (US listed) recent Jun Q'ly identified its Blackhawk acreage - neighbouring the Longhorn AMI to the nth-east - as the most prospective in its portfolio and the main area of focus going forward.



What We Think:

We cannot help be impressed by the Operator: Hilcorp remains committed to minimising costs but ensuring that best practise is incorporated to maximise well performance.

The technical and commercial strengths of the Operator are clearly complementing the favourable physcial characteristics of the Sugarkane acreage as witnessed by the Jun Q'ly and recently reported well production data:

PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS - The uniquely overpressured, liquids rich Sugarkane Field has underpinned:

High Initial Production - The best-in-play Morgan-1H IP of 30mmscfe/day

High Rates of Recovery - Morgan-1H is expected to pay back the ~US$6.5m tied-in well capex within 4mnths

Early Stabilised Production - Weston and Kennedy-1H already displaying 'plateau' rates of decline (ie <10% month-on-month) within 6months of initial production

Sustained Liquids Production - stable CGRs, noting the Conoco’s 'discovery' Kunde-1 vertical well (producing for +3yrs)

TECHNICAL EXPERTISE - Hilcorp has achieved:

Faster Drilling Times - Kowalik-1H re-drill - the longest well undertaken in AUT's acreage to date - was drilled in 20 days

Improving Production Volumes - Rancho Grande-1H is still producing at +800bopd and +2mmscf/d on restricted choke

Lower Rates of Decline - Month-on-month decline rates (based upon gross month production) at Rancho Grande-1H have been <20%; well below our forecasts (40% month 1 and 25% month 2) and the declines of up to 60% reported elsewhere in the Eagle Ford

COMMERCIAL STRENGTH - Hilcorp provides:

Access to Essential Services - 2 drill and 1 frac crews currently working within AUT's acreage; 3 drill crews expected to be in operation by January

Industry Leading Technology - Flex rigs providing for faster mob/de-mob. and drilling times

Vertical Integration - Hilcorp provides access to existing and proposed (completing a new gas pipeline and working towards FID for an additional oil pipeline through the field) pipeline infrastructure, trucking, marketing and sales

The results to date should underpin an impressive maiden reserve for AUT.

We believe that upside to the forthcoming reserve statement will be a function of horizontal and vertical drilling density as well as improvements to recoverability achieved via Hilcorp's on-going refinement of frac'ing techniques.

We view that Hilcorp's utilization of science will result in significant improvements to initial and total monthly production volumes - forthcoming results fromTurnbull-3H should be the first opportunity to witness these latest improvements.

Hilcorp’s low drilling and operating costs can reasonably be expected to reduce further with increasing economies of scale and optimisation of field development scheduling.

Directionally, we can foresee the JV consistently achieving US$6m drill-complete-and-tie-in and US$10k/well/mnth operating costs - well within our current US$8m and US$15K/well/mnth forecasts.

A keener understanding of commercial agreements has prompted us to reduce our discount to our oil price assumptions and increase our average NRI to 75% (from 71%).

We have retained our 25% discount factor as we await results from the next suit of drilling results and fracture stimulation modifications at Turnbull-3H - continued strong results will prompt us to reduce our risking.

Our valuation has improved to $1.50/sh.

We can achieve well in excess of $2/sh on an unrisked basis.



Investment Case:

On-going drilling and production results and a maiden reserve present obvious catalysts for AUT in the short-term. The latest production results serve to further embellish the credentials of the Sugarkane Field as well as the Operator, Hilcorp.  We remain attracted by the leverage to the oil price that is offered via investment in AUT as well as the low risk and scalable growth to production and earnings in the medium term. Buy with a valuation and price target of $1.50/sh


----------



## condog (11 August 2010)

There still drilling and fraccing every day adding value.

The reserves upgrade is imminent.

Euroz update to $1.50 Target - Courtesy of MIR

Price Target: $1.50 


We can achieve well in excess of $2/sh on an unrisked basis.


----------



## estseon (11 August 2010)

The broker is clearly completely bowled over by Hilcorp's operations.

TCEI drilled Kowalik 1 in 2008 using underweight mud to complete with slotted liner and managed a lateral of 4,600ft after 111 days.

Hilcorp managed to redrill with a 6,500 ft lateral completed with cement liner in 20 days.

The TCEI well flowed strongly initially but blocked up pretty quickly.

Hilcorp is managing decline rates downwards but Weston and the wells that it has drilled are all continuing to flow strongly.

Hilcorp is just streets ahead and it's not as though TCEI were lumbering much behind ConocoPhilips in Live Oak, just a few kilometres away (EME has an interest in 5 of those wells and reported the operations, such as they were).


----------



## jancha (12 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Traded it from 90 - 96
> 
> and as stated before NO i was not here to stir merely to  keep an even balance to the "sure thing " stuff happening every hour.
> 
> ...




Im glad you clarified that nun.
Was only pointing out that you had dropped off posting when Aut jumped up in volume & missed your response to it.
And yes even tho i see Aut as a fundermentally driven stock i still like see your perspective in where you think Aut heading from here.
Good see you made a profit while you were in.
P.S. Anyone who trades knows there's no such thing as a "sure thing".


----------



## nunthewiser (12 August 2010)

jancha said:


> And yes even tho i see Aut as a fundermentally driven stock i still like see your perspective in where you think Aut heading from here.
> P.S. Anyone who trades knows there's no such thing as a "sure thing".




Personally think it will retest the previous 87/88 resistance which SHOULD now provide support , hence my trailing stopout at 96 earlier . IF 88 area dont hold its back to the channel game , if that breaks lookout, IF it bounces off it north again i will re-enter.
MAY  bounce off this point also(96 ish) without a retest as the tail of today closed a previous gap, if thats the case a break of 102ish(on vols) would see me back in.

any entrys taken use stoplosses.
any trades taken and in profit use trailing stops


----------



## condog (12 August 2010)

This market is like a moody beast. One day it wants to rip you off and charge a fortune for shares in a great company. The next day its screaming blue murder and wants to throw them back at you. 

Enjoy and take advantage of the moods. Funny thing is the underlying assett that your buying and selling hasnt really changed.


----------



## nioka (12 August 2010)

condog said:


> This market is like a moody beast. One day it wants to rip you off and charge a fortune for shares in a great company. The next day its screaming blue murder and wants to throw them back at you.
> 
> Enjoy and take advantage of the moods. Funny thing is the underlying assett that your buying and selling hasnt really changed.




Its nothing at all to do with charts, gaps and crystal balls etc. Its all to do with the market fall in the USA and the fall in the price of oil. Remember the stock market and the futures market need volatility to survive and for one trader to make money another must lose some. Give it a day of two and the news will be reversed with oil stocks falling and consumption rising, the dow getting a spurt on and back to increasing prices. Manipulation is the name of the game. 

Regardless of the day to day price I'd hate to be out of this stock at any time now as the SP is dependant on news and there is news aplenty due to hit the screen. If it does get to the 80s I'll buy more but I'm not holding my breath.


----------



## condog (12 August 2010)

nioka said:


> Its nothing at all to do with charts, gaps and crystal balls etc. Its all to do with the market fall in the USA and the fall in the price of oil. Remember the stock market and the futures market need volatility to survive and for one trader to make money another must lose some. Give it a day of two and the news will be reversed with oil stocks falling and consumption rising, the dow getting a spurt on and back to increasing prices. Manipulation is the name of the game.
> 
> Regardless of the day to day price I'd hate to be out of this stock at any time now as the SP is dependant on news and there is news aplenty due to hit the screen. If it does get to the 80s I'll buy more but I'm not holding my breath.




Thats what im getting at, this brilliant little coy is still a brilliant little coy adding value 24/7, even if the market and its participants are in a somewhat unlikable mood. Spells opportunity to me


----------



## condog (12 August 2010)

*Oil Stocks With Appealing Gas Assets*
by: The Energy Report August 11, 2010

http://seekingalpha.com/article/219984-oil-stocks-with-appealing-gas-assets

Blue Phoenix Inc.'s Chief Commodity Strategist John Licata says BP's Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico has already resulted in oily names acquiring gas names. It will soon result in more joint ventures as companies try to mitigate the risk of deepwater drilling. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, John tells us why he's bullish on natural gas and why he sees more M&A activity ahead. He also offers some E&P and services names that could ultimately benefit from the rapidly morphing oil and gas landscape.

*The Energy Report:* Just before our interview you were talking about how the BP spill had fundamentally changed the energy sector. Could you talk about some of those changes?


*TER:* Do you have any specific companies in mind when you talk about takeover targets?

*JL:* I think SM, a company I mentioned earlier, is a very interesting name. *They're in the Eagle Ford Shale, which is very attractive*, and they have a partnership with Anadarko, which could be increased. *The natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the Eagle Ford are very attractive*. I have spoken with management, and it seems like they're more willing to beef up their presence in the region. I think that makes them a little more of a target for a larger player, especially given their exposure to the Granite Wash Shale.


*TER:* You said the changing landscape was creating opportunities. Can you point to some specific ones?

*JL:* As you know, for the* last two years natural gas prices have been very suppressed, and I think that has caused a lot of opportunities* because many natural gas companies had to delay projects. That has caused the price of futures to be contained, but to the point where I think we're seeing some of that overcapacity start to reverse. Because natural gas has been cheap for a while, many of the coal-powered generation plants are looking to switch from coal to cheaper natural gas. *The industry as a whole, which has been out of favor, is starting to get a little more attention.* There's still a fear factor with natural gas, and that fear factor has been amplified by increased storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Even today, we were talking about another tropical storm that could possibly hit the region. *So, natural gas, in my opinion, is a phenomenal play.*
*Many of the oil companies are going to look at these gas names and try to get involved in M&A.* Some of the market caps of these natural gas companies have been hit hard over the last 18–24 months, and there are opportunities out there. *It's cheaper to buy capacity than to create capacity. *

*TER:* Are there some other names you like in the Eagle Ford and Granite Wash—plays other than SM?

*JL:* Forest Oil Corporation (NYSE:FST) is an interesting name. That's one I've followed for a long time. The company's based in Denver, but they are very big in the Granite Wash area, especially the northern Texas Panhandle. The company has really been trying to focus on organic growth, and it's a company that I think is a takeover target. *Their location is now a sexier area that is gaining enthusiasm. When you look at that Granite Wash or even Eagle Ford Shale, those two areas are becoming much more of a hot commodity because they tend to have more NGLs on a percentage basis that can be sold back into the market.* *People are going to take advantage of those economics.* Whether you're looking at the Eagle Ford or the Granite Wash, I think you can't have a natural gas portfolio that's not exposed to either.

*TER:* Do you have some price projections for gas through 2011?

*JL:* *I haven't yet released my forecast for 2011, but I have an aggressive target of about $5.50 on natural gas for the end of this year*. It's actually starting to get more into my range if you look at the back months trading on the NYMEX. I think that's very credible. As for next year, I think that's going to be very dependent on—and this relates to oil, too—the recovery of the employment picture not only in the United States but also abroad. I would like to better assess the landscape here at the end of the year before I start making definitive calls for 2011.



*TER*: Alright, what about oil?

*JL:* Yes, it's the same for oil. In January, I wrote a report that said oil was going to hit $87. Well, we hit $87, and we have come off since. Unless we get a really positive turn in the employment picture in this country or we have a storm that knocks out production, I think we've seen the highs in crude oil for this year.

*don't think oil prices can be sustained above $90 this year. It doesn't seem credible, but for 2011, I would not be surprised if we see triple digits in crude oil again.*

*TER:* Any final thoughts on the oil and gas sector?

*JL:* The companies involved in the cleaner side of the energy landscape are going to do very well moving forward. *Natural gas historically trades at a discount to oil of between of 10–12 times; right now we're about 19 times below*. That gap is going to narrow with natural gas prices moving higher. I think that prices could be comfortably higher a year from now.

And *most people are not focusing on the congressional elections in November, but it's my belief that many of those races will be determined on stances related to cleaner energy. *


----------



## sam76 (12 August 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Play the ball, not the man. We are better than this........aren't we?
> 
> I didn't trade it. I was more of the opinion it would retrace. I see it has dropped back from the $1.00 mark and volumes not that hot.
> I hope people locked in some profits. I Will continue to watch for the time being.




It was a legitimate question. There was a sudden drop off in chatter once resistance was broken. It seemed odd and clarification was asked for. We just had the balls to write what others were thinking, lol  

No harm intended


----------



## nunthewiser (12 August 2010)

sam76 said:


> It was a legitimate question. There was a sudden drop off in chatter once resistance was broken. It seemed odd and clarification was asked for. *We just had the balls to write what others were thinking, lol  *
> No harm intended




But when in the past i posted these things you asked for the moderators?..funny that... almost........one could say...hypocritical

anyhoo glad we could clear up any concerns you may have had for our intentions in this thread

AUT has held well today by the way and holders should be happy with its performance today


----------



## sam76 (12 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> But when in the past i posted these things you asked for the moderators?..funny that... almost........one could say...hypocritical
> 
> anyhoo glad we could clear up any concerns you may have had for our intentions in this thread
> 
> AUT has held well today by the way and holders should be happy with its performance today




There was no need for that last little dig nun, was there?  My beef wasn't with you, it was the fact you two kept bitching and moaning about who was right and who had the moral high ground and how it was detracting from thread.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 August 2010)

sam76 said:


> . We just had the balls to write what others were thinking, lol
> 
> No harm intended






sam76 said:


> There was no need for that last little dig nun, was there?  My beef wasn't with you, it was the fact you two kept bitching and moaning about who was right and who had the moral high ground and how it was detracting from thread.




Ahem.

yes your posts here certainly have added value i see.

any analysis? 

Anyhoo .over it....... watching AUT like a hawk once more for a break of 102 or a retest of the 87/88 line ... has performed well today and a previous gap has been closed........ some may want entryhere but me personally prefer the lower risk entry points with lower % loss on defined stop points ... no reason for longer term holders to be concerned and good luck to ya,s


----------



## condog (12 August 2010)

Its nice to see AUT only one of two greens on my entire watchlist. 

Anyway as i said:


condog said:


> *Oil Stocks With Appealing Gas Assets*
> by: The Energy Report August 11, 2010
> 
> http://seekingalpha.com/article/219984-oil-stocks-with-appealing-gas-assets
> ...


----------



## Assasin (12 August 2010)

Sam, please lighten up and have a coffee break. Your tone is not warranted.
As a relative newbie to shares, I have found this thread most informative and very educational. I appreciate the input of everyone from all sides share trading.
  There is merit in all opinions and let's keep it that way.
  Please Nun, Condog and Agent, keep the info and opinions coming, there are many like me that really appreciate them.


----------



## 5424577 (12 August 2010)

Hi folks, new investor here, been doing some research + watching all your valued posts, im in as of today - first buy of stock under $20! time to lose sleep me thinks?


----------



## condog (12 August 2010)

5424577 said:


> Hi folks, new investor here, been doing some research + watching all your valued posts, im in as of today - first buy of stock under $20! time to lose sleep me thinks?




I dont think you need to be losign much sleep. This is far outperforming most stocks above $20 and on a fundamental basis it looks set to continue. Id be losing sleep on plenty of top 50 stocks before this one. 

Welcome aboard, hope its a very profitable ride for you.

Jumping in on a horrible day, just ahead of a reserve upgrade.... could be good timing, depending on the overall market?? time will tell.


----------



## Joe Blow (12 August 2010)

I have cleaned up this thread a little.

From this point forward any post that is intended to provoke others or disrupt this thread will be removed and an infraction issued. AUT discussion only please. Lets keep personalities out of it and get this thread back on track.


----------



## estseon (12 August 2010)

nioka

"Remember the stock market and the futures market need volatility to survive and for one trader to make money another must lose some. Give it a day of two and the news will be reversed with oil stocks falling and consumption rising, the dow getting a spurt on and back to increasing prices. Manipulation is the name of the game."

I've been following the Bloomberg energy news for the last few weeks and there has been mention of hedge fund buying of futures. They can change stance at a drop of a hat and I expect quite a bit of volatility in prices until physical demand takes command. Hopefully, that volatility will be contained within a band and hopefully the equity markets will start to detach from those prices and start to focus beyond the end of this year.

E&D budgets were trimmed down significantly during the last oil price crunch. I was watching fairly closely because EME is invested in Block A (ConocoPhilips' Live Oak acreage) and keeping tabs on investment there. That temporary reduction will have enduring consequences to the balance of supply and demand unless it is countered by levels of investment higher than trend. I don't think that we've seen that yet.

If you look at AWE's last qtly report, you will see that their production is 30% down on 12 months ago (hence the incentive to buy ADI possibly).

That is good news for the price of oil going forward so it's possibly best to disregard the current volatility. AUT is likely to be ramping up production into rising prices for the product. But maybe we will have to wait until 2011 to see it take off. But maybe not: the presentations in Hong Kong and Singapore might attract investors who look a little further ahead and they will have their own views on economic activity growth in the East over the next few years.

I bought a few more at 92c.

One final point: early in the BP spill crisis there was a lot of US baloney about blocking further offshore drilling...it's gone a little muted since. Perhaps the US administration no longer sees it as 'unnecessary risk'. Governor Terminator acted quickly on his patch out west but maybe he will focus a little on his budget deficit and reconsider his own knee-jerk reaction.


----------



## So_Cynical (12 August 2010)

5424577 said:


> Hi folks, new investor here, been doing some research + watching all your valued posts, im in as of today - first buy of stock under $20! time to lose sleep me thinks?




ok so i removed it myself in light of below..



Joe Blow said:


> I have cleaned up this thread a little.
> 
> From this point forward any post that is intended to provoke others or disrupt this thread will be removed and an infraction issued. AUT discussion only please. Lets keep personalities out of it and get this thread back on track.


----------



## condog (13 August 2010)

> RADNOR, Pa., Aug 12, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Penn Virginia Corporation /quotes/comstock/13*!pva/quotes/nls/pva (PVA 15.28, -0.57, -3.60%) today announced that it has acquired approximately 6,800 net Eagle Ford Shale acres located primarily in Gonzales County, Texas for $31.1 million. The acquisition was funded with cash on hand.
> 
> The acreage is highly contiguous and is estimated to contain over 40 horizontal well locations, with our working interest averaging approximately 73 percent (net revenue interest averaging approximately 55 percent). We will operate and expect reserves from wells on the acreage to be predominantly oil.




This equates to 5100 net acres at $6098 per net acre. 
Using these metrics and our wells this gives AUT a value of $225M + our $40M cash + the value of having a joint venture with arguably the best operator in the entire eagleford. Given we gave up 50% of our net acerage to get hilcorp , you could say that deal is worth $61M using the above deal as a per acre cost. 

$225 + $40 + $61 = 326M   = sp $1.18


----------



## rockhound308 (13 August 2010)

Here't the latest well locations from the TRRC.

Must be due for an announcement or two soon


----------



## Sharejon (13 August 2010)

AUT has a real kicker run at the end of the day. $1.06 and with a reserves upgrade due soon things are looking very, very, good.


----------



## adobee (13 August 2010)

Great finish today.. I think the market likes it, a whole lot of ADI investors looking for somewhere to dump there money, Eagleford looking productive as EKA takes up more acerage (obviously for a reason), reserve upgrade due soon..  There is a seller at $100 ..  In my opinion EKA still looks to be the takeover target with small market cap.. Happy days for holders if US Markets rebound tonight..


----------



## 5haretrader (13 August 2010)

What is incredible is that the market still has not factored in an expected 300% upgrade in reserves. Extraordinary stuff here! 

I can't believe there was doubt lingering in my mind a few weeks ago about where AUT could pull a SP catalyst from. Well here it is everyone, and things are only just warming up!


----------



## fflintoff (13 August 2010)

Luna spudded on 7 Aug as reported today by Empyrean in dear ole blighty:-

Sugarloaf Project Block B Update



TIDMEME 

RNS Number : 0357R 
Empyrean Energy PLC 
13 August 2010 

? 
13th August 2010 
                              Empyrean Energy PLC 
                  ("Empyrean" or the "Company"; Ticker: (EME)) 
              Sugarloaf Project, ("Sugarloaf"), Block B, Texas USA 


Empyrean is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the 
Sugarloaf Project within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas. 
Luna-1H 
Empyrean has been advised by the Operator that the Luna-1H well was spudded on 
7th August 2010 and the well has been drilled to a depth of 5,780 ft having run 
and set surface casing. 
The Luna-1H well is the second Sugarloaf well where Empyrean will contribute to 
costs and derive revenue on a post farmout basis. 
Empyrean has a post farm-out working interest of 3% in this well. 

The information contained in this announcement was completed and reviewed by the 
Technical Director of Empyrean Energy Plc, Mr Frank Brophy BSc (Hons) who has 
over 40 years experience as a petroleum geologist. 


For further information 
Empyrean Energy plc 
Tom Kelly 
Tel: +618 9321 6988 
Astaire Securities  Plc 
Shane Gallwey / Toby Gibbs 
Tel: +44 (0)207 492 4750 

This information is provided by RNS 
:scratch:


----------



## Huitzii (13 August 2010)

I traded out of AUT yesterday @ .96 cents and got back in today after my quick profits with LYC and got back into AUT at .96 cents today to enjoy the ride......lucky timing  I guess


----------



## condog (13 August 2010)

As I keep saying

Plenty more in my opinion where this came from.

Ive been researching other junior oilers and peers of AUT all week looking for something else to invest in.

Cant find anything close with the growth prospects and fundamentals of AUT.

There are some with great fundamentals but rubbish growth prospect, others with good growth, but huge risk. But i absolutely cannot find anything close to AUT.

In my opinion and i been right so far since 25c, but it is only an opinion, AUT rise will continue while ever:

* The oil price stays above $70
* They keep drilling and fraccing successfuly
* Managment keeps looking after the company balance sheet and cash flow as they have been.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (13 August 2010)

5haretrader said:


> What is incredible is that the market still has not factored in an expected 300% upgrade in reserves. Extraordinary stuff here!
> 
> I can't believe there was doubt lingering in my mind a few weeks ago about where AUT could pull a SP catalyst from. Well here it is everyone, and things are only just warming up!




I think a lot of the buyers late in the day are figuring on a release of the reserves report on Monday.  AUT has talked about the release being pushed back to mid-August.  Well, 16 August is the closest you can get to the middle of the month.


----------



## condog (13 August 2010)

yep agree at 3pm i posted on another forum i thought we might see a rush this arvo for the same reason. I was thinking maybee bumping around the $1 mark. But 1.06 even surprised me. I had some price sms alerts set and was pleasantly surprised at about 4.12 when they started beeping. 

Certainly a good platform to be sitting at in anticipation of the upgrade. 

Got to say if it is around 300% and a good portion of it 1P and 2P id be thinking we have to see some strong growth on a fundamentals basis. 

Cant wait to see Hartleys and Euroz updates after the upgrade, id be thinking theyd have to go $2 plus or minus if the upgrade is in the order of Hartleys projections. Right now that saounds rediculous, but 1P and 2P is what the big end of town wants to see.


----------



## estseon (14 August 2010)

It certainly picked up after a weakish start. So did EKA.

My feeling is that Hilcorp is demonstrating what might be recovered with reduction of rates of decline being an important factor.

The broker is certainly bubbling with admiration for Hilcorp's operation.

The big changes might be recoverable rates and reduction of risk. The HC mix might be considered more favourable.

But there's still a lot of volatility in the oil futures market and that can be unsettling. Let's hope that the Company's presentations in HK and Singapore have attracted professional investor interest.


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

From buy sell signal dot com

For all you tech heads even though i think this is a fundamental and news driven stock. 

Just the huicy bits. My comments in italics.

Heading - *AUT hits high for 8th time in 3 months*
_Get used to it if oil stays high as its a growth stock_

*Long-Term Rating (Fundamentals): 3 out of 5*
_Strange it was 2 a few weeks ago when it presented even beter relative value_
Aurora Oil & Gas is Australia's 35th largest energy company with a market capitalization of $292.8 million. Among energy companies it has the 72nd highest total assets and 68th highest revenues.
_Ordinarily this might scream overbought - but given growth phase and evidence os strong underlying asset growth imo its fine._

*Short-Term Rating (Technical): 4 out of 5*
Its price change has been positive in the short-term over 5 days, medium-term over 3 months and over the period of 1 year. Its short term rises have been combined with strong volume resulting in strong momentum rises over 1 day. Significantly its price of $1.06 is at a premium of 99% to its 200-day moving average price of 53.0c. Its 52-week range has been $1.06 to 11.0c; it is trading at a discount of 0 % to its 52-week high and a premium of 863.6 % to its 52 -week low. $1,000 invested exactly one year ago is now worth $7,852 of which $6,852 is a capital gain.
*Recommended stop loss: 98.05c*
_Its 52 week low was rediculously underpriced and prior to suring up the funding, operator and program for growth it is now successfully implementing. It has successfully managed to raise the funding, secure potentially the best acerage in the entire Eagleford, secure a brilliant operator, prove the acerage and successfully drive down drilling times from 111days to under 22 days._

*RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS*
*Bearish Signals:​*Price/Sales of 76.14 versus sector average of 2.4 and market average of 1.5.
The Price to Book of 9.4 higher than average of 2.6 for the Energy sector and 2.4 for the Total Australian Market.
_Garbage - this is computer generate rubbish. Of course its sales are relatively low, they are on a cost recovery and not reflected in the price. Ignore this dribble imo._

*RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS*
*Bullish Signals:​*The price advanced 6.0% in the last week and soared 27.7% in the last month.
This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.9 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.99 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.8% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 25.9% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,251 stocks and 36 units traded today, the stock has a 6- month relative strength of 98 which means it is beating 98% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 80.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 84.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 53.0c.
The 200-day MAP has increased to 53.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eight times, pointing to a significant uptrend.
_No surprises, its been undervalued for some time and strong fundamentals, broker analysis and forward news program expected to underpin this growth imo._

*PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS*
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 94.0c and a high of $1.06, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 12.8% was 3.6 times its average volatility of 3.5%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.
_One of the reasons i think its a poor day trading stock._
Volume and turnover period 
There were 1,059,318 shares worth $1.1 million traded. The volume was 2.4 times average trading of 435,837 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 39.8% (or a turnover period of 2 years 6 months).
_up strongly on strong volume is a bullish signal imo_

*Volume weighted price (VWP)*
The price is at a premium of 19.6% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 89.0c.
Given that this premium has been under 19.6% one hundred thirty-eight times and over 19.6% forty times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 138:40 or 3.4:1.
_Normally that imo would signal overbought, but given the impending reserve upgrade its entirely understandable and likely justified imo. May even turn out to be still underbought, depending on size of reserve upgrade._

*SHAREHOLDER RETURNS*
Trailing one week The stock fell twice (40% of the time), rose twice (40% of the time) and was unchanged once (20% of the time). The volume was 2.9 times average trading of 2,179,185 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a week ago is $1,205 [vs $977 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital
gain of $205(or rise of 20.5%).
Trailing one month
The stock rose twelve times (52% of the time), fell six times (26% of the time) and was unchanged five times (22% of the time). The volume was 1.99 times average trading of 9,588,414 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a month ago is $1,277 [vs $1,018 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $277(or rise of 27.7%).
Trailing five years
A three-bagger in the past five years, the value of $1,000 invested five years ago is $3,380, for a capital gain of $2,380.
_The value of $1000 invested in jan when i started identifying this one is a four + bagger._

*TECHNICAL ANALYSIS*
*Significant Uptrend*

*Price volume trend*
The price advanced 6.0% in the last week and soared 27.7% in the last month. This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.9 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.99 times average for the month.
*Relativities*
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.8% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 25.9% for the month. Today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 95. In the Australian market of 1,251 stocks and 36 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 98 which means it is outperforming 98% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close]
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.99, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.99 40 times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 84.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 53.0c, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to 53.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
*Breakout*
The bulls are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close exceeding yesterday's levels.
*Support*
The support price is hovering at the 80.50c level. Volume traded at the support price zone was 1.9 times average during the six occasions when the support price was breached. In the last one month the first low was at 80.50c on Jul 30, the second at 81.0c on Jul 29. The third decline halted at 81.50c on Jul 22, the 4th at 81.50c on Aug 02, the 5th at 82.0c on Jul 14 and
the 6th at 82.0c on Jul 21
_Supports what ive been saying but i thought support was at 81-82c._
*Rises to Falls*
In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 32:22 or 1.5:1.


_No surprises to long term holders we been predicting this for some time, all underpined and de-risked by 

Excellent Eagle Ford Acres

The most brilliant operators

Prudent managment

Strong Flows and Rapidly Improving Declines

Strong M & A activity

Decent Energy Prices_

The key risks imo are oil prices and the US economy.


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

On the charts it has a pretty clearly defined trading band imo. Looking like its at the top of its band. However the reserves upgrade may begin a new trend at a different level??

Also looking at this trend with two rigs and no full time frac crew, one has to wonder what the trend will be with 3 rigs and a full time frac crew in early 2011, "If oil prices remain strong?"

It turns out that period under the trading range was a red hot buying opportunity.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2010)

condog said:


> From buy sell signal dot com



condog, do you have a link to that report. It would be good to see, thanks. kennas


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

http://www.buysellsignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_227.pdf

Sorry .net

Hows ya hoarding tinned food going, i got some spam if you want it.


----------



## Assasin (14 August 2010)

condog, the chart you've used this morning is tapering, is that normal? Sorry if it's a silly question, still learning to get my head around all this.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2010)

Assasin said:


> condog, the chart you've used this morning is tapering, is that normal? Sorry if it's a silly question, still learning to get my head around all this.



Charts will look different dependant on time frames, scales and if they're semi-log or not. The one condog posted would look much flatter on a semi-log.


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

Assassin i wouldnt worry too much im not making any prediction whatsoever for traders, they need to make thier own judgments and live and die by thier own swords. A few cents here and there, and short timelines are not suited imo to this stock. 

I place that as it supports our bullish outlook on a fundamental basis. 

I personally think there are a lot better stocks out there to be trading with significantly more volatility within wider and more predictable bands. 

Funny thing is though if you look back through this thread since about page 4 or 5 you will find a few of us have been bullish in the face of some criticism since 25c in January 2010. Nothings changed much. Its still below its target , its still relentlessly drilling and fraccing to add value, in most cases faster then purchasers are willing to accept the story.

Periods of consolidation and mild pullbacks will be a certainty, but "AS LONG AS OIL STAYS UP - WHICH IS RELIANT ON US ECONOMIC RECOVERY IMO" this things going to continue to have a sharp incline in price in my opinion.

You got two brokers with targets well above the current sp, and probably about to be revised upwards significantly. You got many many different ways to value this explored on this thread. 

You got the reserves upgrade about to be issued. 

Results coming for T3 and Kowalick soon, others drilling and others ready to be drilled. A forward drilling program with a world class operator. 

7 touches on the top line of that band and 7 on the bottom or more, showing a pretty convincing trading band. The dip below was simply a result of increased selling on the back of a CR and SPP. Not too many reasons to be worried about any palteua imo, but DYOR.


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

Some encouraging signs for the overall market after a pretty glum week that saw oil futures fall $5. They finished the week on a small, but important positive. No need for concerns these are still very very profitable prices imo.


> NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--*U.S. stocks rose Friday as improving retail sales and consumer sentiment provided a welcome deviation from this week's disappointing data, but continued worries about the global economy kept the gains small. *
> 
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 5 points to 10325, as investors adjusted their positions following a three-day drop that took the measure 3.5% lower and sent it into negative territory for the year. The slump came as weak economic data suggested the global economy was slowing and reignited fear of a double-dip recession.
> 
> ...



http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100813-707888.html


----------



## Slipperz (14 August 2010)

Nice strong close to the week.

Very happy with progress. 

Can't add much else other than I'm inclined to drop a market to limit order in for 200K on Monday and see what eventuates LOL

:bananasmi


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

Is anyone using options to cover. If so who through and what prices are currently being quoted for Dec 2011


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2010)

condog said:


> Is anyone using options to cover.



Do you own anything but AUT?

You seem to be only posting in the one thread.

Surely you own more than one stock.

Sorry if I've missed anything other that TON and AAM posts.

Do you have a blog that covers all buys and sells or something?

Interested to see your performance over time.


----------



## condog (14 August 2010)

That question of mine should actually say has anyone bought put options to protect thier profits.

Kennas i dont like to divulge too much info in these forums. Lets just say im heavy in AUT and not much else at present. Sorry not interested in a blog.

Not much else happening of interest at present other then AUT, too much fear  and no other companies worth putting my money in other then possible EKA or SEA. Thats not a reccomendation. I got one eye on TRF and ROL and IFE with Wilchery hill and Romang Island.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2010)

condog said:


> Kennas i dont like to divulge too much info in these forums.



Yes, understand. Not too many people are willing to put everything out to dry. No need really. This cyber world is a difficult thing to navigate..


----------



## condog (15 August 2010)

*Oil Breaks 50- and 200-Day Moving Average in the Same Day*
13th August 2010 http://seekingalpha.com/article/220435-oil-breaks-50-and-200-day-moving-average-in-the-same-day


First it was the Nasdaq on Wednesday, and now Thursday it was oil's turn to break below its 50 and 200 day moving averages on the same day. *Since 1990, this is the 20th time oil has broken below both moving averages on the same day, *so occurrences have been more frequent than with the Nasdaq.

*Looking ahead at oil's performance* following these occurrences, however, shows that as was the case with the Nasdaq,* a break of both moving averages isn't the signal of impending doom *that some technicians suggest it is. *In the nineteen prior periods, oil has averaged a gain of 1.36% over the next week and a decline of 0.25% over the next month. Over each time frame, the commodity has seen gains 58% of the time.*


----------



## estseon (15 August 2010)

Excerpts from Bloomberg report on Friday (13 Aug)

"“We were getting a little inflated, and now we’re oversold,” said James Cordier, portfolio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida. “The speculators will lick their wounds over the weekend, and next week we’re going to get a dollar or two back.”

Oil supplies were 8.1 percent above the five-year average last week, according to the Energy Department.

Oil rigs operating in the U.S. jumped the most in nine months this week, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc. Rigs exploring for and producing oil climbed by 25 to 636, the highest level since January 1991."

I'm not sure that there is a lot of logic in that market. Bloomberg has previously mentioned hedge fund buying (and selling) of oil futures.

1.  Last week's balance of supply and demand (how many rigs and production installations were previously shut down for maintenance?) doesn't really seem a logical basis for extrapolating future supply/demand

2  I find the comparison with January 1991 somewhat unconvincing. Supply is not determined by number of rigs. If only our wells could produce at the rate of the now capped BP well in the GoM.

3. China, India and the far east used substantially less oil in those days anyway and, apart from dismissing somewhere around one half of the planet's human population from consideration, the actual population and usage of oil have both increased dramatically.

Rubbish stats and rubbish analysis.

Whilst the barrow boys retain control of the market, we can expect volatility. The fact of the matter is that oil and gas well production declines as the oil and gas are extracted. 

Renewed demand will obviously result in upward pressure on oil and gas prices but what few appear to be focussed on is the need to bring on stream new sources of supply just to counter the natural production declines. Some of this decline will be countered by "new science", the type of advanced engineering that Hilcorp are applying to our wells that TCEI couldn't crack. But, I would guess, not all and the oil rice crunch had the effect of reducing capital budgets for at least a year.

For this reason, I wouldn't care to base anything other than very short-term strategy on the charts. The traders are in command and the chart predictions will be self-fulfilling - instead of being an analysis tool they will be the script. Taking an 18 month view (currently the period covered by the AUT drilling proposals and the new infrastructure construction), the oil & gas price will harden. Could be wrong and often am but that's my non-expert analysis. I don't get paid $multi-millions for doing it either (I'm not suggesting anybody on thsi board is - just referring to the 'experts' providing us with an insight into their breakfast thoughts.)


----------



## condog (16 August 2010)

The open looks to be stacking up nicely for a new high. One tree shaker for each side but the buys look genuine to 1.12 and the sells up from 1.06

Indicative open 1.10 

My guess is if the upgrades coming this morning they tend to be about 9.45

Esteon im not sure what you can see from your side of the world, but it looks like a strong day in store for AUT. Our market futures are down overall 50 points, so where looking good against the tide.


----------



## condog (16 August 2010)

announcment out, 


Luna spudded on 7th August currently at 5780 ft

Surely its not coming this morning or it would have been first cab of the rank imo. Look for later in the day or tommorrow.


----------



## basilio (16 August 2010)

> The open looks to be stacking up nicely for a new high. One tree shaker for each side but the buys look genuine to 1.12 and the sells up from 1.06
> 
> Indicative open 1.10... Coondog




You don't want to stake your life on preopening bids do you?  I think we have all been burned in these markets . Amazing how quickly bids  can be retracted or changed in very short time. AUT now 1.02.

__________________________________________

It does look like a great buy though ..


----------



## condog (16 August 2010)

basilio said:


> You don't want to stake your life on preopening bids do you?  I think we have all been burned in these markets . Amazing how quickly bids  can be retracted or changed in very short time. AUT now 1.02.
> 
> __________________________________________
> 
> It does look like a great buy though ..




I think i have enough profit in this one since 25c to be a looooooong way of being burned on pre-open tree shakers.


----------



## condog (16 August 2010)

I cant be certain, but there appears to be a lot of algorithmic or bot trading happening, looking through the course of sales, there are so many small trades happening in between the real trades. They are in patterns of numbers. Right now they are around 84 - 86 shares and earlier they where round 90-96 shares.

I cant tell from my screens whether they are chippping away to sustain or lower the price yet. But just have a heads up if your looking to buy or sell or if you have orders placed.


----------



## condog (16 August 2010)

Interesting article about the gulf oil companies looking to change strategy and head for areas like the Eagle Ford Shale.



> Anadarko CEO Jim Hackett said his firm plans this year to announce a joint venture in the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas. It previously signed Mitsui E&P USA LLC as a partner in a $1.4 billion Marcellus Shale deal.
> 
> The shift for some has been helped by a 20 percent rise in the price of natural gas , abundant in the rocks of Haynesville and Marcellus, since the BP disaster in April.
> 
> The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. hit an 18-month high of 992 this week, according to oil services firm Baker Hughes.





*US onshore drilling rig count soars, Texas and North Dakota see biggest increases*

Likely boosted by ramped up drilling in the various shale plays across the country, the number of drilling rigs contracted for work in the US spiked this week. 

Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) reported today that the number of drilling rigs contracted onshore the US jumped by 35 this week to 1,640 rigs working on US soil. A substantial increase over last year, there were only 968 drilling rigs working at the same time in 2009. 

Of the land rigs working in the US, there are nearly 640 drilling for oil and nearly 1,000 drilling for natural gas. More than 220 of the rigs are drilling directionally, while nearly 900 are drilling horizontal wells. 


http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet.../exploration/2010/08/us-onshore_drilling.html


----------



## Slipperz (16 August 2010)

basilio said:


> You don't want to stake your life on preopening bids do you?  I think we have all been burned in these markets . Amazing how quickly bids  can be retracted or changed in very short time. AUT now 1.02.
> 
> __________________________________________
> 
> It does look like a great buy though ..





LOL I was looking for a top up this morning and threw a couple of juicy bids in to lure a few sellers out of the woodwork then pulled em just before open.

:


----------



## nunthewiser (16 August 2010)

I suggest you ask the mods to remove your last post and this post as INTENTIONAL market manipulation is illegal mate........

Yes it does happen but its not the thing you want to admit to on a public forum ... i find your posts fair and ok hence my message..... others here i couldnt care less if they leave em selfs open to trouble.

might wanna look it up m8.

i did post a link on it on another thread once but buggered if i can find it or have the time to look it up again.


----------



## Slipperz (16 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> I suggest you ask the mods to remove your last post and this post as INTENTIONAL market manipulation is illegal mate........
> 
> Yes it does happen but its not the thing you want to admit to on a public forum ... i find your posts fair and ok hence my message..... others here i couldnt care less if they leave em selfs open to trouble.
> 
> ...




Market manipulation my ass :

I still brought on the open just at a lower price

ASIC can look all they like nothing illegal in the trades IMHO

I change my mind all the time on pre open bids as to how keen I am for a chase, sometimes I'll go higher sometimes lower and sometimes I'll pull it.


----------



## nunthewiser (16 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Market manipulation my ass :
> 
> I still brought on the open just at a lower price
> 
> ...




no worries. gotta watch ya wording mate..... no laws against changing your mind but there is in deliberately placing bids/sells to influence the depths for personal purposes....

anyways your a grown up, just pointing out your previous wording may cause strife.

not to worry 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...4973&highlight=market+manipulation#post544973


----------



## Slipperz (16 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> no worries. gotta watch ya wording mate..... no laws against changing your mind but there is in deliberately placing bids/sells to influence the depths for personal purposes....
> 
> anyways your a grown up, just pointing out your previous wording may cause strife.
> 
> ...




Cheers anyway for the heads up.

Wasn't exactly the trade of the year TBH sitting on a loss as we speak.


----------



## condog (16 August 2010)

Crudes up slightly and the futures look fine at present, might be a good start if we get the report tomoz.


----------



## condog (17 August 2010)

*Mixed Results On Restricted Wells*
Aug 16, 2010 10:21 AM by Eric Fox 

Exploration and production companies reported mixed success during the second quarter of 2010, with the practice of restricting production on wells in an effort to maximize productivity of the well over the long term in effect. 


Although the practice leads to lower initial production rates, the companies believe that it will reduce decline rates for wells in unconventional resource basins and thus increase the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for these wells. 

Petrohawk Energy hasn't yet put out any official updated estimates on EURs for wells in the Haynesville Shale. The company reported during the second-quarter earnings conference call that first-year decline rates on wells would be reduced from approximately 80-85% to 45-55%, with some wells having first-year decline rates as low as 25%.

Not all exploration and production companies have reported success with restricted production. SM Energy 

*The Bottom Line*
Exploration and production companies are experimenting with innovative production techniques and completion designs to boost productivity in unconventional resource basins





http://stocks.investopedia.com/stoc...ts-On-Restricted-Wells-HK-CRK-EOG-SM0816.aspx


----------



## condog (17 August 2010)

turnbull 3 IP = 629 boc and 1645mmcfgpd with only 1/3rd of the frac stimulated. A new design is doing it in 3 stages. And this is on a restricted choke.

So this looks like being a biggy on par with Morgan and Rancho

Pationio on Ipenema has spudded with 30% NRI

Turnbull 1 60 day flows = 710boepd which is excellent given its on a highly restricted choke.

All fantastic news imo.


----------



## condog (17 August 2010)

New high $1.085, just goes to show what a little gem this baby realy is. And imo theres plenty plenty more in this thing over the next year or two. Key risk = US recovery and hence oil price.

It appears the doomsayers on this stock where incredibly wrong once again.

As i said back at 78c ish, in a month or two you wont care whether you bought at 78c or 85c, as long as oil stays up and they keep fraccing and drilling, this baby will keep generally  rising with its inevitable small corrections in my opinion. And its only an opinion, but its been right since 25c.


----------



## lemontree (17 August 2010)

Looking at the depth and course of sales, there are some bizzare trades going on, there are the ones at about 60 shares per trade then there are trades going at the same number each time for eg.
12:51:59 PM	1.060	6,875	7,287.50	 
12:51:53 PM	1.060	13,125	13,912.50	 
12:51:48 PM	1.060	6,875	7,287.50	 
12:51:39 PM	1.060	13,125	13,912.50	 

Anyone have any ideas whats up with this?


----------



## 5min (17 August 2010)

lemontree said:


> Looking at the depth and course of sales, there are some bizzare trades going on, there are the ones at about 60 shares per trade then there are trades going at the same number each time for eg.
> 12:51:59 PM	1.060	6,875	7,287.50
> 12:51:53 PM	1.060	13,125	13,912.50
> 12:51:48 PM	1.060	6,875	7,287.50
> ...




bulked trades sliced down to avoid much attention. Most insto software does this or broker can do it for them.


----------



## condog (17 August 2010)

Sensational new update on AUT put out by Euroz today.

Below are some snippets to avoid copyright.



> Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT $1.08) Buy
> 
> Price Target: $1.50
> 
> ...




no big surprises, other then 2-2.5x T3 flow is likely to make T3 as good as Rancho.


> What We Think:
> 
> The Turnbull-3H results are highly encouraging ..... represented some of the best results in the Eagle Ford to date.
> 
> ...




They are obviously very bullich on the reserve report impact. New well economics and flows above everyones expectations seem imo to have made AUT superbly more valuable then anyone first thought.


----------



## condog (17 August 2010)

Well well well,  pardon the pun 

AUT rocketing to a new high and closing there in after trade on decent volume. Still lots of buying pressure on this baby. 

Euroz report came out today, plus great update on Longhorn and Ipenema , and any moment we can anticipate release of the reserve report. 

The ride wont last forever, but its bound to keep upward pressure while ever they are drilling and fraccing new wells that are on par with the best int he entire region.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (17 August 2010)

Awseome news again guys. Finished at a nice $1.115. Big rally towards the end of trade so we are setup for another good day. Heaps of buyers and minimal sellers.


----------



## condog (18 August 2010)

Lets hope like hell we get that reserve upgrade this morning. Strong buying still stacked up, DJIA up strongly so far up 143pts, crude up $1.50+ accross the futures board, if it stays this way till open we could be in for another cracker of a day.


----------



## condog (18 August 2010)

Yep futures stayed up nicely. DJIA up nicely 104. Spain and Ireland helped confidence rolling thier debt options over. Anticipation of the reserve upgrade. We closed on the high with good volume. 

Buyer volumes up around a million and sellers down around 195K, so nice buying pressure. 

So things look nice imo.


----------



## condog (18 August 2010)

*Strong Investment Vehicles in Uncertain Economic Times*

Credit Suisse Analyst Yves Siegel

In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Yves talks about the "Big Kahuna" and a handful of other well-managed MLP names with impressive yields and sector-leading growth prospects.


*
TER:* You mentioned that one of the things making these shale plays viable is the NGLs, which require little processing. But, in your research, you also say that the NGL prices will be somewhat lower for the next while.

*YS:* You have to be careful because not all shale plays are alike. Some have more NGL content than others. I think it's sort of good news and bad news. The good news is that there's a lot of natural gas around. The bad news is that, from a pricing perspective, it's still supply and demand. If there's a lot of supply and not that much demand, it does put some pressure on prices.

As we come out of this recession, we're still building demand. Consequently, natural gas prices are somewhat depressed. We know that crude oil prices are fairly attractive in the $75–$80 range. When natural gas is produced, typically it comes out of the ground wet and has to be processed. The more NGLs produced as a byproduct, the more value that accrues to the producer.

*TER: *A premium.

*YS:* *Yes. NGL prices tend to track crude because they compete with crude in the petrochemical market.* In an environment where natural gas prices are depressed and crude oil prices are strong, NGLs add a really nice premium. Consequently, producers are going to drill in areas that have the liquids-rich natural gas. That's what we're seeing, and that's why the Eagle Ford is such an attractive proposition for producers today.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220947-mlps-strong-investment-vehicles-in-uncertain-economic-times


----------



## condog (18 August 2010)

*Big Fracking Deals: Investing in Shale Gas Production*
17th August 2010

In the July 11, 2010, issue of The Energy Letter, The Future of Shale Gas Is International, I examined the growing interest of the world’s biggest integrated oil companies in gaining exposure to and operational experience in North America’s unconventional gas reserves.

At first blush, the recent spate of acquisitions is a bit counterintuitive; natural gas prices in the region remain relatively depressed. But ExxonMobil Corp’s (NYSE: XOM) acquisition of shale-gas producer XTO Energy in a transaction worth $41 million--the energy’ giant’s biggest takeover in a decade--underscores the near-term and long-term opportunity in this segment.

*In the near term, many of the nation’s hottest shale plays remain economic to produce even with depressed natural-gas prices.*

*For example, producers have ramped up drilling activity in the Eagle Ford Shale and other basins that contain ample amounts of natural gas liquids *(NGL) and condensates, higher-priced commodities that boost margins. And the northern reaches of the shale deposit primarily produce oil.

At the same time, oil- and liquid-rich shale plays aren’t the only economic options in a weak market; parts of the Haynesville Shale, which extends from Louisiana into East Texas, are so prolific that production costs are among the lowest in North America. Even in a weak pricing environment, producers in the Haynesville still generate solid returns. 

ExxonMobil’s management acknowledged these trends in the company’s second-quarter conference call, noting that the firm’s near-term focus would be on ramping up gas production in the most economically attractive shale plays.

http://www.investingdaily.com/tes/17664/big-fracking-deals-investing-in-shale-gas-production.html


----------



## prgudula (18 August 2010)

18/08/2010  	 Independent Sugarkane Reserves Certification 


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100818/pdf/31ryngr9434899.pdf


----------



## AngusSmart (18 August 2010)

prgudula said:


> 18/08/2010  	 Independent Sugarkane Reserves Certification
> 
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100818/pdf/31ryngr9434899.pdf




Finally! Eka are also into a trading halt over this.. a bit strange that Aut didnt also go into one... since its a fairly similar report.


----------



## nioka (18 August 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Finally! Eka are also into a trading halt over this.. a bit strange that Aut didnt also go into one... since its a fairly similar report.




AUT did go into a trading halt for a period to allow for the release of the report. It was in preopen for around 20 minutes. Gave me time to adjust my orders.


----------



## lemontree (18 August 2010)

Market either hasnt responded too well to the reserve upgrades or don't know what to make of it. Unless the sp has already creeped up to it's worth over the past few days in anticipation of the reserve upgrades.


----------



## AngusSmart (18 August 2010)

nioka said:


> AUT did go into a trading halt for a period to allow for the release of the report. It was in preopen for around 20 minutes. Gave me time to adjust my orders.




Ah i thought they were just one of them lazy stocks that open a little later than 10am..

The market hasnt reacted much at all.. i'd say the past few days/month the reaction has been factored in.. time will tell however.

i want the 1.60 now!! hopefully we can get the upgrade from hartleys, euroz shortly on what their take is on the report.


----------



## WRONG'UN (18 August 2010)

Can anyone see what oil price (price curve?) is assumed in the figures?
I seem to recall a figure of about $US60 in other presentations by AUT.


----------



## WRONG'UN (18 August 2010)

The AUT presentation material of 10/8/2010 had oil at $US70, gas at $US4 (p24)


----------



## adobee (18 August 2010)

This is rather bizarre that AUT is trading but EKA in a halt till Friday at the earliest .. Is this report the same ?   hopefully something extra to come for EKA will be good for EKA & AUT holders either way ..


----------



## nioka (18 August 2010)

adobee said:


> This is rather bizarre that AUT is trading but EKA in a halt till Friday at the earliest .. Is this report the same ?   hopefully something extra to come for EKA will be good for EKA & AUT holders either way ..




Not bizarre at all. the reasons are different. AUT released a market sensitive announcement and when this happens the ASX puts the company in preopen for a short time to allow the market time to adjust to that announcement.

On the other hand we see EKA needs time to "fix" something before they make an announcement to the market of some major event. If they are not in a position to make that announcement within two days then the ASX will suspend trading in the stock until the announcement is made.


----------



## adobee (18 August 2010)

nioka said:


> Not bizarre at all. the reasons are different. AUT released a market sensitive announcement and when this happens the ASX puts the company in preopen for a short time to allow the market time to adjust to that announcement.
> 
> On the other hand we see EKA needs time to "fix" something before they make an announcement to the market of some major event. If they are not in a position to make that announcement within two days then the ASX will suspend trading in the stock until the announcement is made.




I thought they were releasing the same information with different letter heads ?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (18 August 2010)

Hmm new high of $1.165 at the close. Very impressive I thought! What were you guys thinking the price would be at?


----------



## MACCA350 (18 August 2010)

Nice to see this one continue to tick up

Just had a letter from some broker(can't recall who, binned it) mentioning their target for AUT is $1.50


BTW I've been in since 49.5 

Cheers


----------



## AngusSmart (18 August 2010)

MACCA350 said:


> Nice to see this one continue to tick up
> 
> Just had a letter from some broker(can't recall who, binned it) mentioning their target for AUT is $1.50
> 
> ...





Got a letter from Euroz also today.. i am guessing you got the same one. should email him to receive their updates as they are covering the stock pretty well. thats what the letter was about..

i been on the ride for a similar time!


----------



## MACCA350 (18 August 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Got a letter from Euroz also today.. i am guessing you got the same one. should email him to receive their updates as they are covering the stock pretty well. thats what the letter was about..
> 
> i been on the ride for a similar time!



Yep, that's the one. 
Just skimmed it and thought they were fishing for clients.

Cheers


----------



## condog (18 August 2010)

Exceptionally good news imo

Firstly we qualified for Proven and Possible reserves thats a feat in its own. One that i might say lots and lots of junior oilers never make.

Secondly the numbers look good. imo NSAI has used some pretty conservative modelling here, but it is early days and they dont want egg on thier face. 

Im focusing on the 3P number being the 1P number in about 12 months.

My thoughts are we will massively exceed this as they prove up the entire acerage, as they continue to improve technichues, knowledge and geloogical issues. They will then reduce well spacing and imo the NVP per well are also extremely low.

All in all given they are 1, 2 and 3P this willl bring a whole bunch of new suitors into play. exciting times ahead for AUT.

The company themselves said they think they can sure most those 3P up during the next 12-18 months, imagine the multiples in price if they do.

Its a shame we cant extrapolate those numbers onto the old 2C, but lets just say they all aim to be 1,2,3 P's not C. So it s a great big step forward and the price reflects that.

I think the mesaage everyine needs to get is , we have a hell of a lot of unlocked value to be sured up yet, and if we fall victim to any stupidly low offers like ADI copped people need to keep that in mind and fight with venom, to get fair value.


----------



## condog (18 August 2010)

Looking pretty goood in its channel. Its at the top, but thats to be expected on the back of a reserve upgrade that significantly de-risks our acerage.

I personally cant wait till 2011 when we have 3 rigs and a full time frac crew adding value 24/7


----------



## condog (19 August 2010)

A small snippet of the juicy bits from the  Euroz report to avoid copyright.



> *What we think:*
> Given the negligible geological risk and homogeneity inherent in resource plays such as shale, the 3P reserves are a guide to potential field reserves.
> As we have noted previously, *movement through the reserves classifi cations is more a function of time (with respect to development of the field) rather than risk.*
> 
> ...




Nothing new, but makes for a compelling investment decision imo. Personally i will be dissapointed if it only doubles in the next 12-18 months, as i have it valued at $3.15 at end of 2011. Significant reserve upgrades would push my figure higher. 

Always DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## Speculator (19 August 2010)

AgentM

It is largely to your credit that i have been able to experience the joy of AUT and ADI like I have.

Always appreciating your input and seeing as u havent been around in the AUT thread for a while I was hoping for your current view on the SP of AUT, given the economic situation, the fundamentals, TA and recent valuations.

Thankyou

Regards Spec


----------



## kyrondgm (19 August 2010)

anyone know why AUT is copping a pounding this morning? i thought all was good, then this report comes out and everyone jumps off the bandwagon. Are the results in the report lower than first anticipated? EKA is also getting dumped and these two babies have been nothing but good news for the last few months!!!


----------



## Assasin (19 August 2010)

This hesitation in the market might be a great chance for you to top up your holding at a discount. It would be nice if it just kept sliding up a few cents everyday but unrealistic. To me, these pullbacks present opportunities to accrue.
 Still seaching for other stocks with the goodies AUT has but struggling.


----------



## Kremmen (19 August 2010)

kyrondgm said:


> anyone know why AUT is copping a pounding this morning?




Hardly a "pounding". It's not even back to where it was 2 days ago. It can't rise 5%/day every day, you know.

EKA's situation is special, as the 1:6 allotment just arrived. You'd expect some profit-takers from that.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> Hardly a "pounding". It's not even back to where it was 2 days ago. It can't rise 5%/day every day, you know.
> 
> EKA's situation is special, as the 1:6 allotment just arrived. You'd expect some profit-takers from that.




No need to reassure them, I've been enjoying the bargains! 

I think EKA's drop (understandable as you point out, and predictable enough for me to have been hovering, waiting to buy, which I did) has spooked AUT's holders a bit, causing a drop there too, which is easy to understand given their incredible rally lately - there must be a lot of holders sitting around just dying to lock some profit in, and I've enjoyed helping them do that today


----------



## condog (19 August 2010)

Are they still a brilliant stock - yes
Did they sure up and de-risk much of thier acerage by converting some to reserves categorization rather then contingent resource - yes
Are they still drilling 24/7 adding value -yes
Are they still fraccing - yes
Are they funded to proceed - yes

Then what scared the sheep
The speculators where in looking for a quick shoot up to $1.50

My take on it is as soon as the speculators sell out we will see new growth. 

This little pullback and consolidation is healthy imo.

You got to remember this is not about adding 50 wells over night, this stock is about continuously adding value via drilling and fraccing. 

The reserves report will sink in. Its a good thing, it shows we have whats regarded as a fairly safe play. They will sure more of that up, with time. Until then theres a risk, and guess who gets rewarded for taking that risk ???

Yep thats right.


----------



## Agentm (20 August 2010)

Speculator said:


> AgentM
> 
> It is largely to your credit that i have been able to experience the joy of AUT and ADI like I have.
> 
> ...




hey speculator

both adi and aut have done very well post the gfc..

i did real well with adi and also rode aut pre the last cap raising.

nice to see aut reach the equivalent price of the awe purchase of adi, i know plenty of holders whom would be pretty chuffed with these prices.

my view on the situation is pretty simple, at these prices the long term holders and the last cap raising holders would be pretty keen to take profit, and then run free carried from here.  the valuations must look attractive to the next generation of investors, and the last batch have a great opportunity to exit with the volumes on the boards right now.. question is, will it stay or will it go? and if it goes, where will it go?

my broader view on the economic climate prevents me from investing with any real depth, my views on the sovereign debt crisis and  on the hindenburg omen, and the lack of fundamentals on the oil prices in the US leads me to be fairly conservative and very bearish. watching kyle bass the other day and von greyerz last night really keeps reinforcing what i think is inevitable

if fundamentals in oil really came home to roost, and the 1.13 billion barrels of excess oil had its true effect on the oil price, then i would not be long in any oil stock in the usa. but while the hedge funds and others keep their influence on the oil price to where it is, its really on a knifes edge in my view.

all oil projects, be it offshore, onshore, shale chalks or whatever, they all have modelling that works in their own regions, and when you think of eagleford, it no longer is the cheap entry into shale it once was, i hear of staggering lease prices for the region now. so you need enormous capital, first rate operations, and the fundamentals of oil prices to be in the right zone, once they fall off the model goes to pieces.. and its time for mothballing once again.  every investment has its upside and downside, and we saw what $250 - $350 an acre and less than $60 oil did for the jvp post the gfc.. imaging what  $2500 an acre and a diminishing oil price does for the current modelling.. scary stuff..   if the oil was in the $90 region i would be pretty relaxed myself..

right now aut is not on my radar, nor eka, which i think must be due for some sort of restructure or takeover surely.. but there is a real thirst for aut atm, with great reporting, and plenty of buyers keen to get their fill.. good luck to them all i say

sitting back and researching other oilers and a few gold and copper companies right now.. 

cheers from the cautious bear.... and best of luck with aut...


----------



## condog (20 August 2010)

An interesting read Agent and your totaly entitled to your view.

I share some of your concerns about a debt situation on a global scale.

I too believe there are cheaper shale opportunities elsewhere that will evolve into the next hot sposts. I see opportunities , particularly in the Bakken where amaerican oil just pulled of a 36 stage frac with IP of 3100boepd. Also in Niobrara, Barnett and Alapchae. All these are imo producing sensational early results on much lower acerage prices then the Eagleford. But from an investment point of view for some of them its too early as the infrastructure is not in situ.

But right now AUT has a long long way to run imo just in devloping the fantrastic asset it has acquired. 

Yes the key risk is oil prices and a double dip would force many to go to mothballs, if they are unhedged. However right now oil futures are telling a different story to what we are reading in the media. 

The supply demand situation is teatering on a knife edge of unsustainable demand if we have even a sluggish US recovery. With oil prices set to skyrocket by next year if this develops.

I see some short sighted, nervous profit takers, but not too many Lt holders pulling stumps and its probably good that we have some more consolidation and form a new resistance around the 1.10 mark or so. 

LT holders id imagine would be exploring covering profits with buying 12mth Put options or similar. 

I think right now we are seeing some traders exiting, before we go again on the back of our next set of well results. 

Its true we are running on very high oil inventories and traditionally, with inventories at levels they are currently at we would see $45 oil. However, it appears the consensus that the paradigm has shifted and the pschie of the future traders recognises an unprecedented global oil  shortage in less then 2 years "if" the US recovery begins.

Form my perspective I ask people this question - "if"?

If this situation arrises as many many of the most senior analysts and organisations seem to agree it is likely to occur and we have $150 oil in 2011/2012 and $300 oil in 2015, can you afford not to have exposure to energy stocks??

I also ask you hypothetically, show me a stock right now that has more growth potential and is as de-risked as AUT right now.  Believe me ive spent the last few months looking, turning almost every stone and have come up with nothing that comes close.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (20 August 2010)

Is the run of AUT over for another little while? After being down a few cents all day it crawled back to even under a negative ASX200 day. The buyers are still outweighing the sellers and if the DOW climbs tonight we might see another surge on Monday for AUT?


----------



## condog (20 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Is the run of AUT over for another little while? After being down a few cents all day it crawled back to even under a negative ASX200 day. The buyers are still outweighing the sellers and if the DOW climbs tonight we might see another surge on Monday for AUT?




No it aint over, theres massive amounts of value to be added via continuous fraccing and drilling. 

Its a mere pullback, becuase weve had a good run and for all sorts of reasons selling pressure has mounted. It will disipate in the near term imo. 

Its a good thing , id much rather be in a stock thats growing underpinned by underlying asset growth and regular pullbacks then an overnight sensation that drops faster then you can get out.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (20 August 2010)

The flow of good news has probably dried up for a little bit, even though AUT (through Hilcorp) will be drilling and fraccing the wells anyway.

With a couple of negative days on the ASX, more of the nervous nelly holders will have sold out to realise a quick profit.

Thought it did quite well today to hold steady in the face of a market that dropped 1.5% overall.


----------



## Sdajii (20 August 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> The flow of good news has probably dried up for a little bit, even though AUT (through Hilcorp) will be drilling and fraccing the wells anyway.
> 
> With a couple of negative days on the ASX, more of the nervous nelly holders will have sold out to realise a quick profit.
> 
> Thought it did quite well today to hold steady in the face of a market that dropped 1.5% overall.




It certainly was impressive! I was watching and considering buying some, but the newly-issued shares for EKA came at a good time, during the bad market movement, causing a sharp drop. Good buying opportunity in my eyes, I picked up a heap  I'm sure there was some movement from AUT to EKA today and yesterday, and EKA's drop probably spooked some AUT holders into selling. I look forward to next week!


----------



## condog (20 August 2010)

Id say we are comfortably towards  the top of our trading band and due for a minor consolidation. 

We are at the top of our bnd for good reason. We know we have an immense amount of LNG's, we know we can get them to surface and we know our operator is world class. This week the reserves upgrade converted some of that massive contingent resource to reserves, significantly de-risking a portion.

Those of us with knowledge of the play understand that as more wells are drilled and fracced elsewher on the acerage these reserve figures will rise. If hilcorp decided to run two wells close together and prove a lower well spacing at say 40 acres, it has the potential to double the reserves very quickly. Likewise a 20 acre spacing could easily quadrupple the reserves.

Ultimately though the value being added right now is more a result of two simple items. Welll flow data and the time taken between each new well result. I forseee us trading in this band till either the 3rd rig arrives or till anticipation of the third rig arrives.  

From that point ie, early 2011, i forsee a new growth curve. All other factors being roughly equal.

Again - key risk is the oil price. Dont forget the US dollar alters that for us.





Given the current rate of growth with two wells since hilcorp took over, id estimate in my opinion $1.40 by Jan, all other factors being equal. And there aint many stocks at present that look like achieving this possible growth this comfortably. DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## estseon (20 August 2010)

The split in views between the different factions of economists seems to be worse than usual. The market will dither whilst they make up their minds, in my view.

If the consequence of an oil price crash is to force competitors to mothball development, the reverse swing as things recover will be more aggressive and will work to AUT's advantage. The JVPs are committed to the development and have cash for some time to come. Hilcorp's technology and performance seems to be ever improving.

So, whilst there is no short-term certainty, the longer-term looks reasonably secure. I'd be less comfortable with expensive off-shore development or developments having political risk.

Some of the holders have seen some pretty dire times in the past. The prospects now are hugely better. To me, the worst scenario appears to me to be potentially (if there is a crash) a missed buying opportunity. 

Only hindsight will reveal the best strategy. Sure there is an ongoing sovereign debt issue but it looks deferred now for a year or so to the next crunch time, from what I have read. By then, things may be picking up and the fallout of a default by a relatively small country like Greece may be quite muted. The banks have a breathing space to provide. France seems to have significant exposures but it has a reasonably strong economy.

With the economies of China and India continuing to grow, and those of the far east doing similarly, the demand for energy is bound to increase. It takes time to bring on major new fields (this one is now referred to as "world class" by AUT) as we've seen with S/L.

So, fundamentally AUT seems sound but external events could easily cause dislocation of share price progression.

The top-slicers and other profit-takers are possibly reducing their risk and carry value. That also provides a reserve of investment money to exploit any buying opportunity. On balance, that looks to be a good thing to me. The troughs (if any) will be less severe.

Good luck and look after AUT while I'm away on holiday.


----------



## AngusSmart (20 August 2010)

I am sure you've noticed it. but could this Also be the start of a new trend happening?


----------



## condog (21 August 2010)

*A big positive for the LT industry*

*Global Shale Gas Initiative*

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/08/146161.htm

Office of the Spokesman
Washington, DC

August 20, 2010


The U.S. Department of State’s Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, David L. Goldwyn, will host the first multilateral event under the Global Shale Gas Initiative (GSGI) on August 23 and 24. *Seventeen different countries will send representatives to attend the GSGI Conference to discuss the importance of shale gas as a lower-carbon fuel option that can help reduce CO2 emissions while ensuring energy security and economic development in the 21st century.* Mr. Goldwyn will brief the press on-camera, on-the-record on the GSGI conference at 12:45 p.m. on Tuesday, August 24 in the Carl T. Rowan Press Briefing Room (Room 2209) of the Department of State.

The GSGI uses government to government policy engagement to bring federal and state governments’ technical expertise, regulatory experience in ensuring the safety of water supplies and air quality, and diplomatic capabilities to bear in helping selected countries understand their shale gas potential and the responsibilities of governments.



Economic, Energy and Business Affairs Public Diplomacy Office
U.S. Department of State


----------



## condog (21 August 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> I am sure you've noticed it. but could this Also be the start of a new trend happening?




Angus i hope im wrong, but i think not. I think that St trend youve identified is a correction in response to the post CR and SPP sp hangover, where due to increased selling the sp remained stagnet for too long. I think weve merely caught that up, plus ridden the wave of the Reserve report (which many dont seem to understand the significance of).

Ultimately the value of the company now is primarily detrermined by :

The pace of new wells and thier flows
The oil price and how that effects NVP and repayment of each well based on flows 
M&A activity driving per acre valuations and per boe valuations.

But imo without a doubt if the oil price is relatively stable its the pace of our drilling and fraccing driving vlaue. We have two rigs, so it should be roughly around this channel.

When the third rig arrives =  then there should imo be a notable change in trend.


----------



## AngusSmart (21 August 2010)

Yeah for sure, it would be nice if it was starting a new trend after the report's good news! i thought perhaps it could have changed pace with the report since the news was quiet good. tho the trend has pretty much started at the beginning of august.

I hope that oil keeps trending upwards ever so slightly after the big drop in May.


----------



## Slipperz (21 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> I won't be at all surprised to see us back in the "morgan channel" soon.
> 
> It's really the effects of the CR that kept a lid on prices these past six weeks.
> 
> ...




I'm going to quote myself here cos the charts are pointing to this very result. The "morgan channel" has been broken out of and it's back to the long term trend chart.




We're sitting pretty whack bang in the centre.

I see 1.00 as our new support level ( that's where my stop loss is anyways) we did hit it briefly on Monday after a few profit takers swooped in after Fridays late charge but I'm thinking it's fair to say the momentum is to the upside from here.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 August 2010)

Hey condog, where do you get all this AUT and oil news? Do u just search it on Google mate?


----------



## condog (21 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hey condog, where do you get all this AUT and oil news? Do u just search it on Google mate?




I have a number of paid and free subscriptions and i do use various news channels to search for developments each day, primarily so i know whats going on. When i see something i think is relevatn to AUT holders i do a quick post. Hope it helps.

Theres plenty out there just using the free services (90% or more is available free) through google news if you simply search "eagle ford" or "eagle Ford Shale" "US gas" "Us Gas and oil" "Oil price" "oil prices" "oil futures" 

Seeking Alpha has a lot, as does Wall street Journal and Oil and Gas Journal.


Ive updated the progress chart for AUT


----------



## condog (21 August 2010)

Just another little juicy tid bit for you to chew over on the weekend.

In 2010 we have two rigs with a planned 20 wells
In 2011 we have 3 rigs with 30 wells planned
In 2011 I presume they plan for 5 rigs with 50 wells planned.

On that basis consider the growth curves in 2011 and 2012. Clearly its operating from a bigger mcap each year. So the growth to mcap ratio is lower ie, the % growth.

But in terms of mcap the additional mcap in 2011 should roughly be 1.5 times the mcap growth of 2010. And the 2012 growth with all other factors equal should be roughly 2.5 times the 2010 mcap growth.  

Well worth considering.


----------



## condog (22 August 2010)

In relation to the above. The yellow indicates growth from 25c to 1.30 Hartleys old projection. Both scenarios allow for CR or SPP in H2 2011.
This is a mere extrapolation of gross mcap growth. It does not imply it will eventuate. It relys on all other factors remaining equal which is unlikely. Please do your own research and seek expert advice.

The left column is number of shares, the midle is sp, the right is mcap. The % is percentage growth in mcap in that 12 mth period, or extrapolated projected mcap growth in that 12 month period.




The second scenario, the yellow uses the 1.32 target and then the 1.50 target.



As you can see it pays to be into these early, however, the longer term results are not to be sneezed at either, especially given your capital base has expanded many times , CGT implications of selling , and the de-risking and knowledge of the stock you hold, by year 2 or 3.


----------



## rcm617 (22 August 2010)

Condog, 
In your update on the T1 well, you used boe/d instead of b/d for the 30 and 60 day production averages. The figures should be 700 and 599 for the 30 and 60 day production respectively.


----------



## condog (23 August 2010)

rcm617 said:


> Condog,
> In your update on the T1 well, you used boe/d instead of b/d for the 30 and 60 day production averages. The figures should be 700 and 599 for the 30 and 60 day production respectively.




Ta good pick up.

Heres my projected cash flows based on $70 boc net. Havent taken gas into account so that will allow for tax and royalties on condensate. Just as a guide. Assuming all remaining wells for 2010 after Direct Acess are 10% NRI, and all wells in 2011 are 20%NRI @ 500 bocpd.




With boc at $50 its the same shaped curve but peaks at $200,000 pmonth. @ $85 it peaks at $350,000 pmonth, @ $100 it peaks at $403,000 per month.


----------



## Sdajii (23 August 2010)

condog said:


> Ta good pick up.
> 
> Heres my projected cash flows based on $70 boc net. Havent taken gas into account so that will allow for tax and royalties on condensate. Just as a guide. Assuming all remaining wells for 2010 after Direct Acess are 10% NRI, and all wells in 2011 are 20%NRI @ 500 bocpd.
> 
> ...




I am clearly missing something or making a completely stupid mistake, but when I crunch those numbers I get something in the vague ballpark of $3,000,000 revenue per year, divided by a ball park of 300,000,000 shares gives 1c of revenue per share per year, which would make the current share price an order of magnitude too high. I'm obviously making a stupid misunderstanding somewhere, can you see what it is?

Also, I take it your figures are gross income rather than profit (since at double the price you get double the figure - no factoring in of production costs). This would make the above problem even more extreme.

I'm not at all saying I disagree with your figures, just that I can't see what you're saying.


----------



## condog (23 August 2010)

Sdajii said:


> I am clearly missing something or making a completely stupid mistake, but when I crunch those numbers I get something in the vague ballpark of $3,000,000 revenue per year, divided by a ball park of 300,000,000 shares gives 1c of revenue per share per year, which would make the current share price an order of magnitude too high. I'm obviously making a stupid misunderstanding somewhere, can you see what it is?
> 
> Also, I take it your figures are gross income rather than profit (since at double the price you get double the figure - no factoring in of production costs). This would make the above problem even more extreme.
> 
> I'm not at all saying I disagree with your figures, just that I can't see what you're saying.





I havent had time to cross check, but those figures in the bar chart are monthly figure. They are gross, but on a conservative boc price, and i havent included the dry gas, its just as a rough estimate. So we have some idea of revenue streams for cash flow purposes. Its impossible to work out net figures as we dont know thier tax credit structures etc, so its not worth the effort.


----------



## Sdajii (23 August 2010)

Okay, that makes me even more puzzled. $300,000 per month (ish) or $3,000,000 per year (ish) is only around 1c of gross revenue per share per year. Wouldn't that make the current share price worth around 3c? (given the risks, etc, and with a positive outcome of profit of around half a cent per share per year).

Clearly there is a massive error somewhere, and I assume it's something I have made, I'm just trying to find it. Are you talking about average income per well rather than in total? The potential of a future 1c income per year per share can't give a current share price of over $1. Where have I gone wrong?


----------



## condog (24 August 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Okay, that makes me even more puzzled. $300,000 per month (ish) or $3,000,000 per year (ish) is only around 1c of gross revenue per share per year. Wouldn't that make the current share price worth around 3c? (given the risks, etc, and with a positive outcome of profit of around half a cent per share per year).
> 
> Clearly there is a massive error somewhere, and I assume it's something I have made, I'm just trying to find it. Are you talking about average income per well rather than in total? The potential of a future 1c income per year per share can't give a current share price of over $1. Where have I gone wrong?




Yep my mistake Sdaji, thanks for following it up. A few too many pain killers yesterday morning i think.

Attached is corrected graph. pls cross check it too as i still have some pain meds on board this morning as well.



Please cross check, crunch your own numbers. Info for discussion purposes only.


----------



## condog (24 August 2010)

Is this our nice healthy pull back prior to our next run, if so its a good opportunity to top up. Problem is im not s fortune teller. Id say its dependent on the US recovery, which this week is looking grim, but in amongst a lot of ordinary news there are also glimmers of brightness.

Im seriously thnking right now the big players are in my opinion playing some possible game of lets talk everything up one week, down the next. Punters often suggest this conspiracey theory, but right now there seems to be a pretty obvious pattern emerging. Is it deliberate or coincidental?

The cahrts arent giving too much away this morning as to which direction, it imo seems down for a bit longer, but thats only a guess.



Ingnore the buy sell labels they are merely theoretical points of interest, for mapping.


----------



## Sharejon (24 August 2010)

I cannot understand how EKA has been dropping so signicantly. I am happy with the amount of EKA i'm holding, but at these prices I'm starting to look at shares which I can sell to top up with EKA. AUT has handled it's retrace much better than Eureka has.

(n.b. im a holder of both)


----------



## AngusSmart (24 August 2010)

I'm also considering topping up on Eka at these prices.. i thought the 29 i got the other week was gold..

Perhaps its got something to do with this new acreage? has anyone run the numbers on that yet? or is it still way too early to tell whats going on..

also the operator whos to drill on these new acreages? will it be hillcorp or someone else, considering EKA said its 100% owned?


----------



## Sdajii (24 August 2010)

I'm no expert, but a lot of the activity I have seen with AUT lately looks very botty.

I assume the big drop with EKA is due to all the new 17c shares freshly in peoples' hands, some just want to take profit, and some are probably getting scared - if you're sitting on a very quick, easy, big profit of over 50%, it's easy to be spooked into selling by a market in the red. Obviously I wish I'd waited for 23-24c rather than topping up at 28 and 26.5c, but I'm still glad to have topped up. If I'd been watching over the last few hours I'd have bought more, and still might later today. I really can't see anything other than a whole heap of 17c shares causing today's dramatic action, and people are probably selling out of AUT to buy EKA, bringing AUT down a little too.


----------



## Agentm (24 August 2010)

Sdajii said:


> I'm no expert, but a lot of the activity I have seen with AUT lately looks very botty.
> 
> I assume the big drop with EKA is due to all the new 17c shares freshly in peoples' hands, some just want to take profit, and some are probably getting scared - if you're sitting on a very quick, easy, big profit of over 50%, it's easy to be spooked into selling by a market in the red. Obviously I wish I'd waited for 23-24c rather than topping up at 28 and 26.5c, but I'm still glad to have topped up. If I'd been watching over the last few hours I'd have bought more, and still might later today. I really can't see anything other than a whole heap of 17c shares causing today's dramatic action, and people are probably selling out of AUT to buy EKA, bringing AUT down a little too.




the bots been doing its magic for some time now, a joy to watch..

doubt it will be turned off any time soon.. not at these prices..


----------



## Assasin (24 August 2010)

So, who's going to explain "bot" to an "L" plater.
Sorry to have to ask the question but it seems to keep on coming up.
Regards


----------



## condog (24 August 2010)

Yeh i been pulling a few trades on EKA as well. I honestly think it is over priced, simply due to it having signif less acerage and most of 2011 program  will be in the longhorn acerage. 

Having said that i think all holders and traders are saying it will be a to target.


----------



## condog (24 August 2010)

Assasin said:


> So, who's going to explain "bot" to an "L" plater.
> Sorry to have to ask the question but it seems to keep on coming up.
> Regards




Broker software selling or buying small chunks repeatedly. Sometimes its legitimate, just buying or selling for a client rather then placing a huge order the software buys repeatedly or sells repeatedly with small parcels when ever they become available. 

However imo sometimes its more sinister and its algorithmic trading software designed to buy or sell in small chunks to try and alter the price structure of the stock, so they can then achieve a positon. There position may involve the stock, may involve options on the stock or any combination. 

Some argue they are ok some argue they are not. My take is they are not, becasue the market is meant to be an even playing field and the bots give bot traders and advantage. They argue everyone has access to bots. Which imo  is not the case.

Thats the basic nutshell version.


----------



## Sharejon (24 August 2010)

at 24c you think it's overpriced, or at 32c?

At 32, that is probably the case.

At 24, I think that is really quite harsh.


----------



## condog (24 August 2010)

Sharejon said:


> at 24c you think it's overpriced, or at 32c?
> 
> At 32, that is probably the case.
> 
> At 24, I think that is really quite harsh.




Na at 32c imo it was very high to over priced relative to AUT.

I think from 24c ish you might get a few easy trades away.


----------



## 5haretrader (24 August 2010)

The other thing to remember is there is that apparent parity between EKA and AUT of 1:4. Perhaps this has plagued investors minds in the recent trading of the two stocks. 

IMO, it is hard to justify if a stock is overvalued or undervalued unless you do your own research. For example, you can get a ballpark figure of, say, 25-30c as fair value of a stock, but unless you put in the hard yards and crunch out the numbers, you are really only speculating on the issue. 

Condog is a real inspiration for us all in regards to research. Maybe everyone else should give it a go if you have some spare time. We are all investors, and should be prepared to put in a similar effort in our research of companies. Having just done it with a much smaller O&G company in GGE, you'll be surprised what you'll find with some stocks imo.


----------



## condog (24 August 2010)

Thanks 5haretrader - I agree - if your not prepared to crunch the numbers, put the money in a term deposit. Especially in the current climate.

Posting them in here is one way if you have thick skin. People will soon tell you its right or wrong. Like Sdaji picking up my error, which i appreciate. Marvelous how them pain killer meds make everything seem fine. Go run the numbers on SEA its an iteresting comparison (dis- i dont hold)

Market attention tonight is focused on U.S. July home sales data, due at 10 a.m. EDT and then weekly U.S. oil inventory data by the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Right now oil is down 70 odd cents to a 7 week low. Its a bit of a turning point where the punters need to decide whether to go long, hoping for a rise and face possible margin calls, or look to buy lower. Inventories are high and the US recovery is showing nervous to inconsistent signs. 

Interesting weeks ahead for crude. We will have a better picture when we wake. Till then sleep tight omegos.


----------



## barney (25 August 2010)

A quick point on crunching the numbers of AUT and EKA ....

It might be worth considering the relative value of these two based on their comparitive market caps ....  AUT is currently trading at around 6X the value of EKA.

6X looks ok at the moment, but considering EKA's newly aquired lease is basically not factored into their SP imo, any half reasonable results from that in the future could be prove to be a nice trump card.

Either way, based on proven and probable reserves alone, both of them look pretty solid medium term.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

All true Barney.

I been saying for some time i think they deserve a rerating and ive thought AUT to EKA should be about 1: 5 or 1:6, but the market hasnt agreed with me. Im not sure it can happen and stay like that so suddenly. Bur eventually as we head towards 2011 when most of the action will be in Longhorn, AUt has to outperform, as growth prospects for EKA in 2011 compared to AUT are limited. 

Someone has to get left holding that bunny, so 4:1 cant last imo. Having said that TO speculation is rife with EKA which gives it a false premium.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

The US housing data is out and was lower then expected, triggering some knee jerk reactions to currencies, which affect the oil prices. There was a rush to the YEN as a safe haven triggering a slide in the US on fears of FED stimulus action deflating the worth od the greenback.

A fall in the USD makes oil cheaper to other nations around the world and slows any decline in oil prices that would have otherwise occured. Which is a slight positive for AUT. The US house price data is very ordinary though.

US inventory report from the Department of Energy due 10:30 am EDT Wednesday, analysts imo are tipping a modest fall of up to 400,000 BO.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

condog said:


> Market attention tonight is focused on U.S. July home sales data, due at 10 a.m. EDT and then weekly U.S. oil inventory data by the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. EDT.




*Partial Quote from wall Street Journal*
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, released similar data Tuesday evening that said U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels last week. Gasoline inventories rose by 692,000 barrels..... Refinery runs fell 0.5 percentage point to 85% of capacity. 

Analysts said inventory reports will need to show significant changes in stockpiles to influence the pessimistic outlook.
End Quote

Interestingly the futures dropped, but still  have a positive 12 month outlook, imo thinking the FED will respond decicively. At these prices below and thats the absolute best possible forcast we have imo, AUt would still have incredibly growth prospects and be very profitable imo.

DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

Barring external influences one would have to think the drop in sp is approaching its bottom very soon.


----------



## Sdajii (25 August 2010)

Condog, thank you for your continual updates, they are greatly appreciated. I find myself checking this thread several times each day.

I'm glad you appreciated my pointing out your error rather than taking it as an attack (people seem to get touchy all too often on forums!). I have a pretty good critical eye and a lot of experience with number crunching, Excel, etc etc and a reasonable amount of AUT and EKA. If you would like to team up and work together on some number crunching (I'm happy to do all the crunching and making the data look presentable etc - they've trained me hard at all that! I'd just need some gaps filled in, which with your understanding of and knowledge of the situation would be easy) I would be keen for it. Some of your figures are really good, but I often just get a bit frustrated, thinking if I had the spread sheets and a few extra pieces of data I could make them more meaningful.

You can email me at sdaji@sdaji.com if you're interested.

Cheers


----------



## Kremmen (25 August 2010)

condog said:


> I been saying for some time i think they deserve a rerating and ive thought AUT to EKA should be about 1: 5 or 1:6




What's frustrating is that you keep saying it, but with no justification. You talk of crunching numbers and, on this one, it appears to just be a vague opinion which you hope will come true if you say it enough.


----------



## Sean K (25 August 2010)

condog said:


> Barring external influences one would have to think the drop in sp is approaching its bottom very soon.
> 
> View attachment 38591



That chart looks something like mine. I have support around 90c. Both are not semi log which would make a difference, but it's close.

I would be very happy if those lines didn't break, very nervous if they did.


----------



## kash (25 August 2010)

No share can keep going up. Profit takers will come in and with falling markets those that want to lock in profits. Plus there will be lack of news for a little while. This is a healthy fall because their is alot of good prospects for the coming months.


----------



## Sharejon (25 August 2010)

Condog I don't think enough information is known by us shareholders, to compare AUT's future operations (including longhorn) with EKA's, as EKA's land purchase could turn out to be an absolute terrific buy, or it could be the opposite.

So I think it's fair to say only time (and results) will tell.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> What's frustrating is that you keep saying it, but with no justification. You talk of crunching numbers and, on this one, it appears to just be a vague opinion which you hope will come true if you say it enough.




Kremman I cant justify it with numbers as i havent crunched all the numbers on EKA. But let me put it this way.

IF AUT and EKA where locked into the AMI  and only the AMI, the continual 1:4 ratio would obviously be much more palatable. 

But my rational is this. 

History tells us 1:4 is definitely the ratio of days gone by up till now. However the game is changing rapidly. AUT has all that extra acerage which is fast fast fast approaching being developed. Not only that but pretty much all of next year hilcorp has said the focus will be on developing longhorn. So what are the growth prospects for EKA from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011, possibly pretty stagnant. 

Now sritics will say , but wait EKA just acquired all that other acerage. Yes they did, but intil they have a funded development plan with a competent partner its realy only an asset to sell. Its actually a liability, till they either sell it or get a funded development pland and competent partner.

Hence my suggestion 1:5 or 1:6

When i look at the growth for 2011 with all other factors being equal, i project AUT to rise from roughly 1.30 to 1.50 up wards to about the $2.70 to $3.15 range on either forward cashflow projections or NPV calculations.

If you then extrapolate that upon EKA it in my opinion would be grossly over priced if it held 1:4 against AUT in its current status to close to the end of 2010.

I could be wrong its just my opinion.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

Sharejon said:


> Condog I don't think enough information is known by us shareholders, to compare AUT's future operations (including longhorn) with EKA's, as EKA's land purchase could turn out to be an absolute terrific buy, or it could be the opposite.
> 
> So I think it's fair to say only time (and results) will tell.




Maybe your right, maybe i am. 

What i think is important to recognise is its an asset if they sell that extra acerage or develop it. But until they have a funded development plan and cometent proven partner, its a liability. 

Note: imo if a TO transpired that would count as a sale and hence would be an asset. but if it doesnt i see EKA having a much lower growth curve during 2011 then AUT. At some point that gets factored into the price. 

We know from the broker US tour what hilsorp intends to do , that should soon be reflected in prices.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

kennas said:


> That chart looks something like mine. I have support around 90c. Both are not semi log which would make a difference, but it's close.
> 
> I would be very happy if those lines didn't break, very nervous if they did.




Im not too concerned. AUT imo can now be trusted to keep adding value rapidly. What we need to watch is the US recovery and how that might affect oil prices. 

Prgudula (sorry if wrong) found a cracker of an article on NBC, that basically points out my viewpoint on what might be transpiring with oil at present.   http://www.cnbc.com/id/38831892

We are seeing nervousness due to concerns on the US recoveries and Western inventories. In doing so we are focusing nera term , very near term. 

The real picture is the premiums that will need to be paid very shortly on the back of China and Indias insatiable demand that will not be able to be met by OPEC or current producers growth curves *"IF"* oil demand continues to rise. Thats the real picture. 

Just rememebr , everyone tried to put the fear of god into us in June about a CR, then the SPP, the July pull back on US double dip fears. Weve been here done that. Right now at $1 AUT is good to fair value in my opinion and rising rapidly . By Dec all other factos being equal we have two brokers with good research arms telling us $1.30-$1.50

imo watch the us situation carefully and the oil price futures. The oil price futures imo tell the real story. Right now they are still saying oil will increase to $78 within 12 months.

All opinion so do your own research and seek expert advice


----------



## WRONG'UN (25 August 2010)

Recent historical relationship between AUT and EKA, plotted on Pair Trade Finder (separate thread on ASF). I've no idea where it's going next, but the momentum seems to be with AUT at the moment.


----------



## condog (25 August 2010)

Thanks Wrongun thats a cracker, it would be awesome if you could give us that once or twice a week. Then we will really get to know it. 

Id be surpirsed to see EKA holding anything below 1:4 for long. AUT has the momentum now becasue EKA got a bit hot last week.

I pulled off several intra day trades on EKA, then stupidly got caught in with a small parcel i bought at 30c. I managed to dump 3 parcels around 30c and just got tooo greedy. Not to worried, just dont like having my trading money locked up.

Just on EKA, i noted a pretty big parcel in that change in substantial holding notice today. Someone obviously thinks its terrific value at present. And i dont think hes a trader, given he already had 8% holding we would have seen all his other notices if he was.

funny how the rich buy when everyone else panics.


----------



## Kremmen (25 August 2010)

condog said:


> Kremman I cant justify it with numbers as i havent crunched all the numbers on EKA. But let me put it this way.
> 
> IF AUT and EKA where locked into the AMI  and only the AMI, the continual 1:4 ratio would obviously be much more palatable.




IF AUT and EKA were locked into the AMI and only the AMI, the 1:4 ratio would be totally laughable and nobody with a single functioning neuron would invest in AUT. EKA receives 95% of the income (per share) of AUT from the AMI, which would justify a 1:1.05 ratio. (modified by an adjustment for AUT's cash in the bank)

The 3-4x price of AUT has always been based on AUT's other prospects. Now, you're saying the extra area is worth 4x-5x-6x the AMI. Without some solid evidence, that seems like a multiple you've just pulled out of thin air.


----------



## mir (26 August 2010)

Kremmen
i think what condog is saying ,if AUT had 6 times the net acres of EKA in AMI only, it would be 4 to 1 ratio..


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

mir said:


> Kremmen
> i think what condog is saying ,if AUT had 6 times the net acres of EKA in AMI only, it would be 4 to 1 ratio..




Yep thats what im sayong. All other factors being equal. ie development pace, operator etc etc , AUT has 4 x the acerage hence 4:1 ratio. 

But once you then consider the differing development stages etc etc explained above, AUt deserves a premium and a significnat one as 2011 approaches imo.


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

Crudes up nicely pretty much accross the board in the ST, indicating imo the US market has now factored in the reaction to those horrible housing numbers.


----------



## nioka (26 August 2010)

condog said:


> Yep thats what im sayong. All other factors being equal. ie development pace, operator etc etc , AUT has 4 x the acerage hence 4:1 ratio.
> 
> But once you then consider the differing development stages etc etc explained above, AUt deserves a premium and a significnat one as 2011 approaches imo.




It is also important to factor in market cap and the ability to finance any development with funds on hand until the companies are cash flow positive. The earlier wells on the joint venture will be cash flow positive before the later turnbull ones. Remember ther eis also a big difference in 4 to 1 and 5 to 1. there are 10 decimal points there and the value is probably somewhere in between.

My guess is about 4.2 to 1 with that possibly changing in favour of EKA when the value of their new lease areas are clearer.


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

*Deals of the day -- mergers and acquisitions*Friday August 27, 2010 

India's Reliance Industries Ltd is a likely partner for Chesapeake Energy Corp's Eagle Ford shale acreage, a U.S. brokerage firm said on Wednesday

http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Deals-of-the-day-mergers-and-acquisitions-2010-08-25T200058Z


*Capstone Turbine Corporation Receives Order for 18 C65s for Prominent Oil & Gas Developer in Eagle Ford Shale Play*

The 18 low-emission C65 microturbines will provide prime power to central processing facilities and metering stations at remote well sites in the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas. 

Posted on 08/25/10
http://www.benzinga.com/pressreleas...n-receives-order-for-18-c65s-for-prominent-oi


*Eagleford Energy Inc. (EFRDF) Signs Agreement to Purchase Private Oil and Gas Company*


Eagleford Energy Inc. announced that the company has signed an agreement to purchase a private oil and gas company that owns properties that are prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. 

Eagleford Energy Inc. is purchasing Dyami Energy LLC for total consideration of $4.1 million. 
........
The leases total approximately 5,300 gross acres in the Maverick Basin of Texas, and are prospective for the Eagle Ford Shale.

*AWE Limited Reserve Statement*

No reserves were attributed from the recently acquired Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") shale gas assets in the prospective Eagle Ford trend. The net share of the previously reported Adelphi reserves equate to approximately 6.3 million BOE. These incremental reserves are expected to be added to the AWE portfolio in the 2011 financial year. 
*
A REVIEW OF SHALE GAS PLAYS IN NORTH AMERICA*

A really nice article, particularly if your looking for other investments.

Eagle Ford Shale
The Eagle Ford shale formation is situated in South Texas runs from Laredo to Houston Texas. It is located directly below the Austin Chalk.  The Eagle Ford produces both natural gas and oil, but it is the oil-producing and gas condensate areas that is active at this time. Average thickness is about 500 feet. The more active part of the region is mainly in McMullen, Maverick, Dimmit, La Salle, Karnes, Live Oak, and Atascosa counties. Apache Corp. and EOG Resources are two of the largest lease-holders. Other major players include Petrohawk, Swift Energy, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Murphy Oil, Chesapeake, Cabot Oil & Gas, and Pioneer Natural Resources.

http://www.glgroup.com/News/A-REVIEW-OF-SHALE-GAS-PLAYS-IN-NORTH-AMERICA-50172.html

*Eagle Ford Oil & Gas Corp. Announces Acquisition of a Farm-in in Live Oak County*

.....acquisition of a farm-in of a 1% working interest in 2,400 acres and the drilling of two wells in the Eagle Ford Shale formation located in Live Oak County in South Texas.  The Dena Forehand #2H and the Kellam #2H have been drilled but not completed.  The fracturing of these two wells has been scheduled to occur during the next 20 days.  Eagle Ford Oil & Gas will continue to participate in the drilling of additional wells in this lease and anticipates a total of 14 wells will be drilled over the next 48 months.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...f-a-farm-in-in-live-oak-county-101415839.html


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

*Oil up after 5-day loss, eyes equities, heating oil*

*(Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures on Wednesday rebounded from an 11-week low and five days of losses as the market shrugged off government data showing across-the-board rises in crude oil and product inventories last week.*

Oil prices found their footing after five straight days of losses racked up amid worries that the economic recovery was stalling and with it keep oil demand sluggish.

U.S. crude for October delivery was up 64 cents at $72.28 a barrel at 1:58 p.m. EDT (1758 GMT), after earlier falling as low as $70.76, the lowest price since early June.

......
*"Crude futures also appear short-term oversold and may be poised for a rebound," Ilczyszyn added.......*

Analysts emphasized that, with the summer driving season winding down, the energy markets were looking to shift focus on heating oil futures ahead of the winter.

*"It's that time of the year when traders begin selling gasoline and buying heating oil," said Ilcyszyn.*

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories rose 4.11 million barrels in the week to August 20, dwarfing a forecast for a build of 200,000 barrels.

However, crude oil inventories at the key Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell 779,000 barrels to 36.3 million barrels, about *the only bullish feature *in the weekly report.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67M3KQ20100825




*OIL FUTURES: Crude Ends Higher Despite Weak Inventory Data*

Market watchers said the rebound appeared to be a technical bounce after the steep fall from above $82 a barrel since early August. Seventy dollars has been a rough level of support for prices over the past several months, and the inventory report offered traders betting prices would fall a chance to lock in profits. 

...."It's one of those things where we've been down for numerous days in a row, the market is oversold," said Tom Bentz, a broker and analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. ......

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100825-711697.html


*China's Crude-Oil Demand Growth May Slow in Third Quarter as Economy Cools*

China’s apparent crude demand growth may slow “noticeably” in the third quarter as the world’s fastest-growing major economy cools, said the China Petroleum & Chemical Industry Association. 

The nation’s oil demand, including domestic output and net imports and excluding inventories, may rise 5.8 percent to 108 million metric tons, or 8.6 million barrels a day, the association said in its monthly report posted on its website today. That compares with the 15 percent gain in the second quarter and the 22 percent increase in the first, according to government data. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-growth-may-slow-to-5-8-association-says.html

*India overtakes Japan in demand for oil*

India overtook Japan in demand for oil among Asian nations in the second quarter of 2010, reflecting its rapid economic growth, according to Platts, a provider of information on energy and metals.

The country’s demand for oil in April-June stood at 3.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), marginally higher than Japan’s 3 mbpd. China, with a demand thrice the size of India’s, registered the highest demand for oil in Asia. 

“The growth in India’s oil demand is an indication of an economy doing well,” said Vandana Hari, editorial director, Asia, Platts. “The Indian economy was not as badly hit by the slowdown in 2008 as it is not as dependent on exports as China or Japan, and staged a faster recovery than its Asian counterparts.” 


http://www.livemint.com/2010/08/25210224/India-overtakes-Japan-in-deman.html?atype=tp

*BP chief economist sees oil at $70-$75/b until mid-2011*

 The crude oil price is likely to remain largely in a $70-$75/barrel
corridor until at least mid-2011, BP group chief economist Christof Ruhl said
at the ONS 2010 conference in Stavanger, Norway Wednesday.

     But around that time something would have to give, he said, as inventory
levels started to return to normal.

     He said either OPEC would then have to move to increase production at
that point, or else prices would then rise.


........ The greatest area of uncertainty over the energy mix for the next 20
years was the interaction of gas and coal, especially in power generation, and
how big a market share they would take, Ruhl said.

     Gas had climate change benefits, and if more countries had access to
local shale supplies in the future, might be as acceptable on security of
supply terms as local coal.

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews.aspx?xmlpath=RSSFeed/HeadlineNews/Oil/8909059.xml


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

nioka said:


> It is also important to factor in market cap and the ability to finance any development with funds on hand until the companies are cash flow positive. The earlier wells on the joint venture will be cash flow positive before the later turnbull ones. Remember ther eis also a big difference in 4 to 1 and 5 to 1. there are 10 decimal points there and the value is probably somewhere in between.
> 
> My guess is about 4.2 to 1 with that possibly changing in favour of EKA when the value of their new lease areas are clearer.




Well Nokia so far youve been the undisputed king of trading the splits on these, so people would be very wise to listen to you on this one. 

But im in slight disagreement, not with your rational, just your final figure. imo theres been too much Longhorn development, development planning, they have a partner and a brilliant partner secured and its all funded. We know the acerage is high liquids and economic. 

A lot of that was up in the air 6 months ago when 4:1 was the ratio. So i guess its a question of , when will punters jump to AUT for the 2011 growth and security it offers over EKA in 2011 and what price will they pay to make the switch???

Its been a long and successful split ratio so it might take a while to snap, but imo im certain it has to. For me personally id rather take what imo is a much safer and fairly high return with AUT. But im sure others will go for the low mcap growth EKA offers.


----------



## Kremmen (26 August 2010)

condog said:


> Yep thats what im sayong. All other factors being equal. ie development pace, operator etc etc , AUT has 4 x the acerage hence 4:1 ratio.
> 
> But once you then consider the differing development stages etc etc explained above, AUt deserves a premium and a significnat one as 2011 approaches imo.




AUT has 4x the acreage, so it would be fair to use a starting point for market cap ratio of AUT:EKA as about 4:1.

However, AUT also has more than 1.5x the shares on issue. Therefore, the starting point for value per share is about 2.7:1.


----------



## Kremmen (26 August 2010)

condog said:


> For me personally id rather take what imo is a much safer and fairly high return with AUT.




This makes no sense to me. EKA looks to be the safer stock. It can just collect returns from the AMI, which has been producing for some time. For its premium over EKA, AUT is depending upon additional areas which haven't been drilled yet. They will probably, eventually, lead to greater returns, but that's longer term.


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> This makes no sense to me. EKA looks to be the safer stock. It can just collect returns from the AMI, which has been producing for some time. For its premium over EKA, AUT is depending upon additional areas which haven't been drilled yet. They will probably, eventually, lead to greater returns, but that's longer term.




Kremmen i dont agree. Idont invest in companies that sit back, i regard them as poor investments. They have similar proportions of AMI income to AUT. Then AUt will be rapidly growing if oil price stays up on the back of its fraccing and drilling in Longhorn 2010. 

I think you need to explain your perspective on where EKA income and growth is coming from thats comparably better in your opinion, becasue i think we have crossed wires. I cant see EKA having anything like the growth of AUT unless they sure up a deal on thier new acerage. If hilcorp manage to drill extra AMI acerage, AUT and EKA will benefit. So at present i can see no scenario where EKA offer remotely similar growth or relative safety (taking into account opportunity cost).  Im puzzled where your coming from  - As Pauline would say, please explain.

MCaps are $42M v $285M

Acerage is 4:1

So i sort of see where your coming from in that way. But take my point. With a long established ratio of 4:1, how do you propose EKA can sustain a relative value during 2011, when the vast majority of a 30 well program is proposed to be in Longhorn.  

I take your point that 2010 offers EKA good prospects, but not 2011. Where now almost Sept, so at what point will that be reflected in the price.


----------



## Kremmen (26 August 2010)

condog said:


> If hilcorp manage to drill extra AMI acerage, AUT and EKA will benefit.



Yes. On an almost 1:1 basis per share. If EKA derives Xc/share in revenue from the AMI and AUT derives 1.05*Xc/share in revenue, who is better off? If X is anything vaguely worthwhile, the answer would appear to be EKA, unless the Longhorn and Ipanema results average better than Sugarloaf. (And, preferably, also time-travel back a year or so to make up for the advantage Sugarloaf already has.)



> Im puzzled where your coming from  - As Pauline would say, please explain.



I explained my calculations several pages ago. You are the one who refuses to back up your statements. Ironic to quote Pauline, as you seem like a preacher, just telling us to have faith because you have seen the light.

Your assumptions appear to be based on AUT racing ahead with Longhorn and Ipanema, while Sugarloaf, which already has a head start, is somehow left to do nothing. Do you suppose AWE really bought ADI to just do nothing with it? Is there any real reason to assume that Sugarloaf will suddenly be ignored, when all the JVPs have incentive to continue?


----------



## mir (26 August 2010)

Kremmen
1 who is going to be operator for the new acres?
2 how good are the new acres, they are 90 miles NE of AMI which is already in the NE part of the play?
3 where is the cash coming from to drill at $7 to $8m per well , better not be a duster?
4 old management knew exactly what was going on through AUT which have the association with hilcorp, does the new management have the same association ? 
i still think EKA is good value but IMO AUT is better, i was a  holder of EKA but now all in AUT.

condog AUT has about 7 times the net acres without EKA new acres (761acres).


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> I explained my calculations several pages ago. You are the one who refuses to back up your statements. Ironic to quote Pauline, as you seem like a preacher, just telling us to have faith because you have seen the light.




wooooo back sunshine im not getting inot this garbage. Thats way out of left field , i was having a nice friendly discussion with you.


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> Your assumptions appear to be based on AUT racing ahead with Longhorn and Ipanema, while Sugarloaf, which already has a head start, is somehow left to do nothing. Do you suppose AWE really bought ADI to just do nothing with it? Is there any real reason to assume that Sugarloaf will suddenly be ignored, when all the JVPs have incentive to continue?




According to both brokers who attended the US tour this is going to be the case. 2010 is going to focus on AMI and then the primary focus of 2011 is to be Longhorn. With from memory 2 Ipenema wells?


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

*From page 16 of the 9th June Presentation.*

New drilling now focussed
on Aurora’s Longhorn
acreage then Ipanema
until completion of
farmin commitments.
 Additional drilling
planned in Sugarloaf and
Ipanema areas in 2010.
*
From Euroz Update - 18th June 2010*
Similarly, the programme for CY11 has increased from 15 to 25 wells and will *focus ostensibly upon the Longhorn* AMI (AUT – 25%) *with 17 wells planned, whilst 4 are to be drilled at Ipanema and Sugarloaf.*
From June AUT Quarterly

The forward plan for the *remaining calendar year is up to 8 wells within the Sugarloaf *AMI, 3 wells within the Ipanema AMI in addition to the fracture stimulation of the third well at Longhorn.

and 

In 2011, the expectation is that Hilcorp will be operating three rigs and a frac crew full time within the Sugarkane field. Although the final program is subject to operator variation, this translates to an expectation of *approximately 30 wells within Aurora’s acreage *during 2011, *the majority of which are scheduled to be within the Longhorn AMI.*

The current and scheduled drilling program has been determined based on a decision to ensure that all of the acreage in which Aurora participates is “held by production” within the period of existing leases. This plan obviates the need to competitively re-lease existing positions in the future.


----------



## Agentm (26 August 2010)

eka schedule for the next 3 quarters

Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Reports

ASX RELEASE
23 July 2010
QUARTERLY REPORT
Eureka Energy Limited (ASX:EKA, “Company” or “Eureka”)
QUARTER ENDING
30 June 2010


*Hilcorp have advised that up to eight new wells, including the Kowalik-1R well, are currently planned to be drilled in the ensuing 3 quarters.* The Sugarloaf Joint Venturers will contribute to costs and derive revenue on a post farm out basis i.e. for Eureka 6.25%. The well locations will be selected to optimise the amount of leasehold land held by production which is a key objective of the Sugarloaf AMI participants given the increased competition for land in the Eagleford trend.


----------



## Kremmen (26 August 2010)

mir said:


> i still think EKA is good value but IMO AUT is better, i was a  holder of EKA but now all in AUT.
> 
> condog AUT has about 7 times the net acres without EKA new acres (761acres).




I still think AUT is good value too. I'm a holder of both EKA and AUT. I also held ADI until the takeover.

How about being consistent and either excluding or including new, undrilled areas in both cases? AUT has about 5.6x the net acres if you exclude both AUT and EKA's new areas (Ipanema and Fayette county, respectively) and 5.7x the net acres if you include both.

That gives a AUT:EKA ratio per share of around 3.7:1 in either case.


----------



## mir (26 August 2010)

Kremmen
so you are comparing Ipanema to Fayette which is 90 miles away, interesting .in Fayette have the majors drilled all around it like ipanema? Ipanema is on the border of AMI , i'm pretty sure they know what their going to get, can you say the same about Fayette?


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

Kremmen said:


> That gives a AUT:EKA ratio per share of around 3.7:1 in either case.




Yep so we pretty much accurately back to where we started. 4:!, but when and how much will 2011 be factored in.

In 2011 AUT will participate in a likely 30 wells

EKA will participate in a likely 8 wells minus Kowalick, minus any in 2010. So a likely 2-3 wells in 2011, as the remainder of 2010 focuses on the AMI.

Hence using todays figures 

EKA will put on say 3 wells at 5% * $16M to an mcap of $42 m = 2.4M = 5.7%

AUT will put on 30 wells at average of 22% ish * $16M NPV = 105M = 37%

Taking that a step further if this was roughly right just using the NPV formula which is too conservative imo. But they are relative and its the easiest calculation. AUt would finish with a 37% increase on $1.50 Euroz target. EKa would finish 2011 with a 5.7% increase on 25% of. $1.50 = 37.5c

AUT finish 2011 on $2.05
EKA finish 2011 on approx $39.6c

Get my drift. Thats a 5:1 eventually, hence when will the ratio change from 4:1.

And imo its even better if you calculate it out using the forwad cash flow methods.

At what point will the swappers start factoring that growth diffence in.


----------



## nioka (26 August 2010)

condog said:


> Yep so we pretty much accurately back to where we started. 4:!, but when and how much will 2011 be factored in.
> 
> In 2011 AUT will participate in a likely 30 wells
> 
> ...




EKA is often quoted as having 5% nett but it actually has 6.25% nett. That point alone is worth ".2" on the ratio. Probably more. I have always given AUT some leeway for its extra area even before there was any interest in it. EKA deserves at least the value paid for the leases as an asset too. So I am sticking to my 4.2 to 1 ratio at this stage. The other factor is the likelyhood of a takeover. I'm not sure if that is a plus or a minus at this stage. Any offer for EKA would need to be at a premium and that could mean it could be for a short period run ahead of AUT.

Just my thoughts but anyone doing calculations must take percentage interest, market cap, cash on hand, directors history in looking after its shareholders, untested areas, takeover appeal and taxation into account.


----------



## condog (26 August 2010)

Very early in the session, but crude futures up nicely at this stage.





*Oil Rebounds Over $73 on Dollar, Equities*
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose for a second day on Thursday as investors bought back into the market after it hit 11-week lows, but analysts said the fundamental outlook was still bearish with ample stocks to cover any rebound in demand.

The rally was supported by a 0.5 percent fall in the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies and some technical signs that the market was oversold.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11485180


----------



## Kremmen (26 August 2010)

condog said:


> Get my drift. Thats a 5:1 eventually, hence when will the ratio change from 4:1.




Eventually is the big point. To get to the result you're going on, EKA has to do almost nothing. A few wells. If one fails, try another. EKA is pretty close to guaranteed to have at least the value you put on it.

However, to get to your 5:1 ratio, AUT has to do 30 more wells without much more than a single failure or delay. There's no way you can honestly say that that's likely at this point, except by blind faith. Believe me, I'll be more than happy if it happens. But there's a lot of risk in there and nobody knows how it'll go.

At what point will the market start factoring in the difference? I reckon once we've seen a whole lot more holes in the ground. Longhorn is over 1/2 AUT's net acreage, so it's really the key ... another half dozen or so wells there will give us some idea what the future is like. Great wells in Longhorn could justify 6:1 over EKA. Some lousy ones could make it more like 2:1.


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

Crudes looking like finishing up 90c, with most the futures up well over a $.

Take a look at the chart below, theres a pretty strong resistance point at $70 been formed. Partially i beleive because those Canadian tar sands are uneconomic below $70 imo, combined with the threat of OPEC cuts, seems to be enough to keep it hovering.


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

*Barclays Cuts 2011, 2010 Oil Price Forecasts *

Barclays Capital, one of the most bullish banks on the oil market outlook in recent years, has cut its oil price forecasts for 2011 and this year, citing concern about the economy. 

*The bank cut its 2010 price forecast for benchmark U.S. crude by $4 a barrel to $78 and reduced its 2011 forecast by $7 to $85, it said in a report on Thursday.* 

"*There is enough fundamental strength to support prices above the $70 which is increasingly looking like a minimum for the basic health of the industry*, but there is also enough macroeconomic disquiet to make any breakout of prices to the upside difficult to sustain," the report said. 

.......The bank said prices could prove to be firmer than expected should sentiment about the economy become more optimistic or if political tension over Iran and in Iraq—both major oil exporters—worsened. 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38868114

*Oil settles above $73*

Oil prices rose for a second day following six straight days of declines, as the dollar fell and the government reported that new requests for unemployment benefits fell sharply. Here's how energy prices traded.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange:

Crude rose 84 cents to settle at $71.36 per barrel.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38869650

*OIL FUTURES: Crude Prices Tick Higher After Recent Drops *

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures ended higher Thursday, rebounding from recent lows after the Labor Department reported a surprisingly large drop in new jobless claims. 

Light, sweet crude for October delivery settled up 84 cents, or 1.2%, at $73.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled $1.54, or 2.1%, higher at $75.02 a barrel. 

Oil prices gained for the whole session, falling just short of $74 a barrel, as analysts said futures remained stuck between prices that made the commodity seem too cheap for investors to resist buying and data pointing to a rocky recovery in oil demand. 

Thursday's gains began with the U.S. Labor Department's report of a 31,000 drop in initial jobless claims to 473,000 in the week ended Aug. 21. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted filings would decline by 10,000. 
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100826-712185.html

*MARKET WATCH: Crude oil price rebounds above $72/bbl*

Analysts at Standard New York Securities Inc., part of the Standard Bank Group Ltd., reported crude *prices “benefited” from bargain-hunting and the weaker dollar. “However, prices are likely to pull back on mounting evidence of a stalling global economic recovery,” they said. *http://www.ogj.com/index/article-di...ics-markets/2010/08/market-watch__crude9.html


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

*Natural Gas: The Realistic Choice*


Tiny snippets from a huge and interesting article.


Natural gas prices have been depressed for more than a year, and stocks levered to the fuel have turned in a mixed performance. This weakness has lead many investors to the unfortunate conclusion that natural gas isn’t an interesting investment story.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Gas is an abundant and environmentally friendly fuel that’s already revolutionizing key global energy industries such as petrochemicals. And natural gas is a far more viable alternative to oil in the transportation sector than any of the widely hyped alternative energy technologies

*Natural Gas: The 21st Century Fuel*

The two main sources of demand for natural gas are electric power generation and industrial applications. .........

In markets where natural gas competes with oil, gas’s main advantages are that it’s more readily available and cheaper........


...... starting around 2006 the close correlation completely broke down””oil has consistently traded at a much larger premium ....... Global oil supplies are likely to remain constrained 

Supply bottlenecks in the global gas market are far less onerous. ......

The greater availability and reliability of supply mean natural gas prices will remain relatively cheap compared to oil....

None of this means natural gas will completely replace oil in industrial markets. However, it is likely to gain market share, particularly in markets with plentiful supply.......

Toward the end of 2009 and into early 2010, US petrochemical companies were retooling their facilities to allow them to produce more ethylene from gas-derived ethane and propane rather than oil derived naphtha. .....

Transport is a huge potential growth market for natural gas....

The first markets to be penetrated significantly are fleet vehicles such as buses, taxis, and garbage trucks. Refueling such vehicles requires building only one or a handful of centralized refueling stations ......

The true game-changing market for natural gas vehicles isn’t personal passenger cars or fleet vehicles but freight trucks......

http://www.investingdaily.com/tes/17689/natural-gas-the-realistic-choice.html


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

*Is Now the Time to Buy Natural Gas Stocks?*

For years, natural gas was in many respects the forgotten fossil fuel as coal was the dominant fuel for power plants and major manufacturers like steel producers, while oil powered vehicles. In the debate over alternative power supplies, solar and wind zoomed to the top of the hot list, but they are still years away from being major sources of power generation despite the hype. Over the past couple of years, natural gas has gotten more attention as a potential “bridge fuel” to greater energy independence for the U.S., but nonetheless, prices for the fuel continue to hover near lows, as do the stocks of natural gas producers.

More recently in June, researchers at the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology issued a report that also urged policymakers to make use of the nation’s ample natural gas supplies as a substitute for coal-fired power plants.

“The substantially lower carbon footprint of natural gas relative to other fossil fuels, combined with the development of North American unconventional natural gas supply and the high cost and slow pace of lower carbon alternatives, has focused attention on natural gas as a ‘bridge’ to a low-carbon future,” the researchers said
http://www.tickerspy.com/newswire/?p=3038


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

Despite the DOW faltering on close the futures are still up for the 2nd session running accross the board. 





Good to see the longer term NG prices rising as well.



When you look at these figures someone is telling porky pies. Either the journos are spinning a load of hog wash on how bad they think the US economy is, or the futures trades are standing to lose a lot of money. It doesnt add up. Thing is is trust the futures traders more then the journalists.


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

*Tricks and traps in share price targets *By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
August 10, 2010

A small snippet from a very good article from the Eureka Report


> Over the years I have developed a great affection for consensus price targets .......
> 
> The simple reason I tend to look at consensus targets instead of targets set by individual stockbrokers is that they work much, much, much better.
> 
> ...




On this basis, currently both brokers have a buy - indicating a buy

Both brokers have targets above the current sp and above the current 52wk high, indicating upward pressure.

Brokers have targets of 1.23 and 1.50, indicating a consenus price of about 1.31 at present.


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

*The Best Peak Oil Investments*

http://seekingalpha.com/article/222381-the-best-peak-oil-investments

extract from a brilliant article - i highly suggest a read. 
*Is it Speculation?*

Many have been quick to point the finger at speculation as the cause of increasing volatility in the oil price. Multiple studies have looked for but have not found any link between oil speculation and oil price volatility [pdf].

In addition to the lack of evidence that speculation increases price volatility, blaming speculation for increased volatility demonstrates a naivete about how speculators make money. As anyone who has ever traded anything from baseball cards to exotic derivatives knows, in order to make money, a speculator needs to buy low and sell high. When speculators buy oil, they are acting to increase demand (the aggregate desire to buy), and so are increasing the oil price. When speculators sell oil, they are acting to increase supply (the aggregate desire to sell), and so are decreasing the oil price. 

In order to increase price volatility, a trader would need to buy when prices are high (raising prices further) and sell when prices are low (causing them to drop further.) Any speculator who consistently buys high and sells low will also consistently lose money, and will soon stop speculating because of lack of funds. In contrast, a speculator who buys low and sells high will not only make money, but will reduce overall volatility. Selling when prices are high will moderate price spikes, while buying when prices are low will moderate price falls: both have the effect of reducing price volatility. 

In other words, speculators who increase volatility will soon run out of money and stop speculating, while speculators who reduce volatility will make money and likely continue speculating unless laws are changed to prevent them from doing so. Attempts to ban or limit oil speculation are likely to have the perverse effect of increasing, rather than reducing future oil price volatility.

..........I conclude that the most likely source for increased oil price volatility is a reduction in the ability of oil supply to adjust to changes in price. This agrees with another formulation of the Peak Oil thesis: Peak Oil is not the end of oil, but the end of "easy" oil. 

*Implications of the End of Easy Oil*

As world oil demand continues to rise, and extracting oil becomes increasingly expensive and more dangerous, several trends are likely to continue.

1.Oil prices will rise
2.Oil companies less able to quickly adjust supplies to changes in the oil price, 
3.Increased drilling risks 4.Increased oil prices will lead to adjustments in our oil use that decrease demand.
4.Increased oil prices

This link has the index for all articles http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2010/05/peakoil.html

*also of interest*
What Peak Oil Means for the Economy and Stock Market: The Methadone Economy
http://www.altenergystocks.com/arch...estments_part_ix_the_methadone_economy_1.html

extract from the article
...........
*Conclusion*

I see three major investment themes in the Methadone Economy.

First, there is the knowledge that long-term solutions will be implemented, although not completely and at insufficient scale.  Investors in contractors who specialize in mass transit and high-speed rail should do well, as should the longer-term alternative fuel solutions discussed in earlier articles of this series.  Vehicle efficiency improvements will find rapidly growing markets as fuel becomes more expensive.

Second, band-aid solutions will thrive.  Bike lanes, electric scooters, buses, and any other transportation solution which can be implemented with only small changes to existing infrastructure.  Road pricing schemes and the software technology to help people coordinate ride sharing.  The clever use of a few resources will always win over grand schemes when there are few resources to spare.

Finally, the Methadone Economy is an economy where we cannot expect long term growth.  More likely, we will see periods of anemic (and occasionally robust) growth punctuated by periodic crisis-driven declines.  This will be mirrored in the stock market, and so investors in the above two solutions should do well to hedge their overall exposure to the market.


----------



## condog (27 August 2010)

Our other leading indicator of the outcomes for AUT imo is the health of the US economy and its flow on effects into the oil prices.

*IMF's Lipsky does not see double-dip recession*

A top International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday strong corporate profits and moderate income growth should prevent the U.S. economy from slipping into a new recession.

......"We certainly don't expect some sudden surge in employment growth, but surely if the expansion continues, as we expect that it will, it will produce job growth," Lipksy said.

Lets hope hes right, he certainly has more idea then us, but is he just talking it up, or is he genuine.
Certainly the oil futures tend to agree with him.



*Goldman Sachs has increased its odds of a double-dip recession to 25 percent*. Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com sees a 1-in-3 chance, vs. 1-in-5 just a few weeks ago.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ht...012730247_the_double-dip_recession_no_lo.html

*Ford Exec: Double Dip Unlikely *

The head of Ford Motor Co.'s U.S. operations said Wednesday he doesn't foresee a double-dip in the economy but is keeping a close eye on how the recent spate of bad economic news is affecting consumer confidence.

*Buy On Dip Fears*
Ken Fisher, 08.26.10, 05:40 PM EDT 
Forbes Magazine dated September 13, 2010 

The second quarter of 2010 should be the third in a row when earnings growth exceeds 30%. The last time that happened was 1983.

The post-April stock market correction has been the most textbook perfect I've seen since the one in 1998. That one fed on the Asian contagion, the Russian ruble crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund freak-out.

Like that one, this year's minicrash had been pushed along by several scary stories that turned out to be nonsense but were nonetheless impossible to dispel. The biggest was the PIIGS hysteria--the idea that Greece was going to go bust and take down Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain with it. But all five have effectively completed their 2010 financings without incident. Only Greece took any bailout money at all.

.......... article continues

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0...-buy-on-dip-fears.html?boxes=Homepagechannels


----------



## AngusSmart (27 August 2010)

thought i'd extend the chart on comsec this afternoon since we're in a bit of a down trend.

we should be dew for some news soon usually about every 15days or so


----------



## McCoy Pauley (27 August 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> thought i'd extend the chart on comsec this afternoon since we're in a bit of a down trend.
> 
> we should be due for some news soon usually about every 15days or so




Condensing the last few reports from AUT, we should be getting news shortly.

From the announcement on 17 August, AUT told the market that the first well in Ipanema, Patino #1H spudded. Presumably we'll get some flow rates in the not-too-distant future.

This announcement also set out the 7-day flow rates for Turnbull #3H on a restricted choke. I'd expect to see the 60-day flow rates in the near future.

AUT also advised the market that production tubing had been installed on Turnbull #2H and it would be brought back online "shortly". AUT was going to update the market when "stabilised rates" were achieved.

From the announcement on 16 August, AUT advised the market that Luna #1H well had spudded on 7 August. I would expect to see some flow rates from that well fairly shortly.

From the announcement on 5 August, AUT advised the market that the drilling operations on Kowalik #1R had been completed, production tubing installed and the well was to be fracced. Haven't seen flow numbers on this either yet.

From the quarterly report announced on 30 July, AUT advised the market that the forward plan involved "up to eight wells" in the Sugarloaf AMI, three wells in Ipanema API and the fracture stimulation of the third well at Longhorn.

I don't think we'll see any more announcements this month (just a feeling) but there's still a lot of news in the pipeline (no pun intended).


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

McCoy Pauley

I suspect theres some hold ups on the frac crew, theres extreme labour shortages at present, and somewhere in there they said, thier crew was going off site, i think it was to the Hilcorp KKR JV to do 2 fracs then returning, that was a few weeks ago now, so i suspect if they arent already back on site fraccing ours they would be now. 

They are currently trialing that fraccing in three stages, so i suspect they will come back and rotate accross ours in three stage, or intertwined with the KKR acerage in the three stages revoulving through the 5 wells or so??

Wonder how there going securing the third rig and Full time frac crew for 2011, primarily on Longhorn. It will be back to back news flowing once thats happening. Virtually a news flow per week with the 7 days or so between frac, 3 rigs drilling as fast as they can frac and then 30 and 60 day flows revolving along beyind them. Wont be many quiet weeks in 2011 thats for sure. 

Right now i think they are dragging thier heeels just a little bit, becasue they are a bit under crewwed (frac team ) but know they can easily achieve the 2010 well obligations.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> thought i'd extend the chart on comsec this afternoon since we're in a bit of a down trend.




Easy to see how 1.20 and 1.30 will be achieved on the back of some good news or sentiment looking at that chart. It was certainly a pullback we needed to have looking at the chart.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

Old graph and new graph. At 1.16 it was looking a little bit over bought, its now looking well and truly over sold anytime below about 99c imo. Could turn out to be a good buying or top up point for late entrants ??? Thats not advice, its just an observation.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

Thats a strong rebound from Crude, over $2 on most time frames on the Back of Benankes comments. If the market judges his response as fair dinkum, and his ability to do so with the tools available, I think we just got our life line on oil prices imo, and possibly the stimulant for the start of the next bull run on oil prices. 


Oil futures are the best guide we have to profitability and repayment times on wells, this surge is fantastic, and imo that news from Benanke is even better then fantastic. It imo clearly implies he thinks the US recovery is not at major risk, and he thinks he has the tools to fix it if it did falter. Perhaps as I suggested last week the market commentry is being manipulated, up one week, down the next or up one month down the next. Certainly seems to be the case.

Taking a step back though these are nervous times, coming off low lows with high debt problems , volatility and nervousness where always going to be a part of any recovery for some time. 



http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100827-710312.html
*OIL FUTURES: Crude Settles Up As Bernanke Speech Lifts Markets *

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures ended the week with a three-day rally, as comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday gave investors renewed confidence that the central bank would step in if the U.S. economic recovery is in jeopardy. 

Light, sweet *crude for October delivery settled up $1.81, or 2.5%, at $75.17 *a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was recently up $1.63, or 2.2%, at $76.65 a barrel. 

For crude, it was the *first time closing above $75 a barrel since Aug. 18*, as three straight days of gains made up for a steep drop that took prices to a two-month low of $70.76 a barrel midday Wednesday. 

*Futures rose Friday after Bernanke told an audience in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that the Fed is committed to supporting the economy and has the tools to do so.* While Bernanke stopped short of announcing new action, gains across many markets indicated that investors were convinced of the central bank's willingness to step in. 

The Dow Jones Industrial average was recently up 151 points, or 1.5%, at 10137. 

"*He basically said 'We will bring out the heavy artillery'*" said Matt Zeman, chief market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. "That should drive the dollar lower and give commodities a bounce."


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

*New well application in by Hilcorp.* The names just keep getting harder to pronounce and spell, "Urrutia"


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (28 August 2010)

Hey condog, what is the relationship between hilcorp and AUT? Besides they are both in oil n gas and from Texas area?


----------



## J&M (28 August 2010)

Hey NUN 

Do you see an entry point now the stock price is slowly dropping 
or do your charts show a further drop in the share price 

If so could you post a chart and a comment 



James


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hey condog, what is the relationship between hilcorp and AUT? Besides they are both in oil n gas and from Texas area?




John hilcorp are the opreators, they are the ones doing the drilling and fraccing, planning, which wells get done next and how to do them. 

In return for this , plus the fact they funded the first 10 wells on a cost recovery basis, they will earn upt to 50% in some of AUT's acerage.


J&M - please lets not start this all over.   Given the jump in oil and the comments of Benanke, im doubting your going to see it here for much longer. But thats only opinion.  Anywhere close to the bottom green line is a bargain in my opinion. But do your own research and seek advice.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 August 2010)

J&M said:


> Hey NUN
> 
> Do you see an entry point now the stock price is slowly dropping
> or do your charts show a further drop in the share price
> ...




Gday James.

Personally think the area marked as "area of intrest"(95-90) provides a nice low % loss on stopout point ... i would first like to see it bounce off 91/ 92/93 on VOLS but that may not happen due to the rallys on fri night so MAYBE worth a punt at any point around previious close if you can get it ( if it gaps on monday just be patient there SHOULD be a better entry than the auction/first hour exhuberence)

IF it Breaks the 90 area .all bets are off and that would see ME out to come back to later.( please ignore my line on chart as in wrong spot)

merely opinion Bud and i am only TRADING it , nothing more.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 August 2010)

condog said:


> J&M - please lets not start this all over.    .




Excuse me.

J&M asked for MY opinion obviously for a reason.He has a right to ask and i have a right to respond.

I have deliberatly not been posting in this thread as cant be bothered with the sniping on different views when they are presented.


This is a public forum and it is not your place to decide who and what  gets posted here.

Please do not reply as it will only lead to me having to respond to your posts on a daily basis again and frankly its too much like hard work for me and every other bugga thats gotta read the soapie it turns into.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

*Lloyd’s peak oil report, supply crunch, $200 oil in 2013?*

The Lloyd’s insurance market and the highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House, says Britain needs to be ready for “peak oil” and disrupted energy supplies at a time of soaring fuel demand in China and India, constraints on production caused by the BP oil spill and political moves to cut CO2 to halt global warming.

http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/oil/...oil-report-supply-crunch-200-oil-in-2013.html


----------



## Slipperz (28 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Gday James.
> 
> Personally think the area marked as "area of intrest"(95-90) provides a nice low % loss on stopout point ... i would first like to see it bounce off 91/ 92/93 on VOLS but that may not happen due to the rallys on fri night so MAYBE worth a punt at any point around previious close if you can get it ( if it gaps on monday just be patient there SHOULD be a better entry than the auction/first hour exhuberence)
> 
> ...




Price of gas at the henry hub is one of the factors at play here at the moment.

Down from 4.70ish to 3.70ish. http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php?lang=en#natural_gas_large

You can talk  fundamentals till you're blue in the face but if the product you're selling is declining in value by 20% in a month look out below.

I'm back on the sidelines with a nice profit in the bank on the run up and looking to reenter again sooner or later.


----------



## Huitzii (28 August 2010)

J&M said:


> Hey NUN
> 
> Do you see an entry point now the stock price is slowly dropping
> or do your charts show a further drop in the share price
> ...




Hi James, I will give you my take on AUT.
Firstly its a great stock and ive made my fair share on it in short trades.
AUT responds very well to good news ,and soon there will be more good news, that's almost a certainty.
68 and 90 day averages are pointing in a northerly direction and the 10 day average has taken a turn, but this is to be expected
In recent times its seen some consolidation and with a close of .098 IMO its a good buy at that price, but in saying that I think it has more movement in it to its support level of .095.
It could even go down as far as .092.
But if it drops below .092 I will be on the sideline
But as always the market decides and this is only my opinion.
Hi Nun Its good to see you post here again
As Condog says : Do your own research and seek advice.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Price of gas at the henry hub is one of the factors at play here at the moment.
> 
> Down from 4.70ish to 3.70ish. http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php?lang=en#natural_gas_large
> 
> ...




Slipperz our products are exttremely liquids rich the vast majority of our products we sell in dollar terms are Barrels of condensate, sometimes nick named NGL's etc. Our product actually attracts a premium in most areas over oil, becasue its easier to split its components for production.

Hence this is the reason why most dry gas producers are limiting or holding further investment till prices are more economic and we are ploughing ahead.

You got to watch the oil futures not the dry gas prices, as the best indicator of our profitability.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

Plenty of news soon on frac results, updates on flows, spuds, then the huge one will be when cash flow starts rolling in Q4 which is rapidly approaching.

MACD havent crossed, but they can cross in one big day, without warning, so the buy signals not there yet for the traders. Having said that the stochastics look fantastic for tommorrow, as do the oil futures and rebound from Big Bens speech.

I honestly think the majority of the sell off lately was on the back of oil prices, and whilst in the short term there are still very high Western inventories, which will see the crude prices level off, possibly fall slightly again, the news from Big Ben imo will hold the medium term futures up nicely and may even start to retrigger $90 oil for next year.







Right now its in bargain territory, cant see it staying here long imo.


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

Slipperz 

From the AUT website 80% of revenue relates to condensate prices. Obviously an improvement in dry gas would be fantastic, but imo its unlikely in the short term and not necesary for AUT to be incredibly profitable.



> The Sugarkane field has produced condensate at a ratio of between 75 to 300 bbl per mmscf of gas for the wells drilled in the field to date. In other words, on an energy basis, approximately *30% to 65% of the hydrocarbons produced is condensate (or light oil). On a revenue basis at current pricing, approximately 80% relates to condensate sales.*




Of significance is the fact OPEC wants $70+ oil and Canada has difficulty producing it from thier prolific sands below $70.

So for a while at least it appears $70 is the support level.


----------



## nioka (28 August 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> merely opinion Bud and i am only TRADING it , nothing more.




Interesting statement. Only trading it ?. Why pick AUT? There are dozens of stocks that are better trading propositions than AUT. I note from your posts that you have not mentioned any other stock so far this month.

I have not found AUT a good stock to trade lately. Stocks like VPG show better variation with more liquidity and dependability.

 Reference Type Detail Debit ($) Credit ($) Balance ($) 
27/08/2010  C12891525  Contract  B 100000 VPG @ 0.082000  8,229.95    
26/08/2010  C12886653  Contract  S 100000 VPG @ 0.090000   8,970.05  -  
26/08/2010  C12884407  Contract  B 100000 VPG @ 0.085000  8,529.95   

or NTU
C12854326  Contract  B 100000 NTU @ 0.120000  12,029.95  ( now 21c)

Which leads me to wonder,,,are you trading AUT or just stirring the pot. Not that I want you to stop as it does give another view but you may be encouraging others to trade it when it may not be such a good idea.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 August 2010)

J&M said:


> Hey NUN
> 
> Do you see an entry point now the stock price is slowly dropping
> or do your charts show a further drop in the share price
> ...






nunthewiser said:


> Gday James.
> 
> Personally think the area marked as "area of intrest"(95-90) provides a nice low % loss on stopout point ... i would first like to see it bounce off 91/ 92/93 on VOLS but that may not happen due to the rallys on fri night so MAYBE worth a punt at any point around previious close if you can get it ( if it gaps on monday just be patient there SHOULD be a better entry than the auction/first hour exhuberence)
> 
> ...






nioka said:


> . I note from your posts that you have not mentioned any other stock so far this month.
> 
> 
> Which leads me to wonder,,,are you trading AUT or just stirring the pot.  :




I was asked a question.
I gave an answer.
Yes i trade AUT
No i am not stirring the pot.
Finding arguing with every goose that doesent like my opinion rather tiresome of late so only opening ASF and other forums when i get bored.
I used to use Forums/stockchat as a way of bouncing ideas around on my trades and potential trades, i have now  taken up knitting and counterlunches instead. I am fine with that and it seems to work well.
Happy to try and help some here along the way when asked to . i was asked.i answered.

back to knitting.

as you were


----------



## condog (28 August 2010)

I too am intrigued as to why anyone would choose AUT as a stock to trade, and thats not a shot at anyone. But it seriously lacks liquidity and volatility, imo the two best aspects of trading stocks.

Having said that I would prefer to trade a stock i have a good fundamental understanding of, so the when the tide goes out im swimming with pants on. 

So sometimes i trade EKA as iknow its play and its volatility is better then AUT, but from a liquidity point of vieew its pretty pathetic for trading. AUT i personally would find it very hard to trade, due to the liquidity, but then again that may be a reflection of parcel sizes. 

Im left to assume if anyone is trading it, they are doing so with pretty small parcels or over longer time periods then a trader would normally prefer.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 August 2010)

nothin wrong with up to 50k parcels on this stock(move in and out freely  even on gap days with a bit of gameplaying in the depths) , in fact some decent % swings to be had intraday and longer (weeks/months) look at the vols, breath the vols, they can tell you where your cash gunna mingle

different rules/position sizes/risk areas to each stock.

i have had a long term relationship with this 3 letter code  on and off even before the namechange many moons ago ( first discovered by "nail" from commsec early 2000,s)

i couldnt care less what you longer term pundits have to say on its future/prospects/share price............ to me it is a another trading stock that provides a regular game if positioned correctly.

trade it / dont trade it..... if your looking for justification for not doing it, well its  on the board and can be traded regurly.just may not suit the " gigazillionaires" that seem to hang out at this joint

back to counterlunches and seedy ladies

amen.


----------



## condog (29 August 2010)

*Weekly Oil.com Article*
United States Oil Consumption and Reserves: A matter of exponential growth and finite resources
It is a well known fact that the United States has been importing Oil since the 1970's because the home oil production cannot meet the rising demand. *According to 2009 yearly average, the U.S. Crude Oil consumption is around 21 million barrels a day and home production is only around 5 million. Why are things escalating so fast? Why are resources running out at such speed? *We will try to answer these questions on this article. There is no simple answer but it is all pretty much related to one single concept: exponential growth.

Within the last two centuries, advances in human technology has made the civilization completely Oil, Gas & Coal dependant, which are mainly used as fuel for diverse purposes. What makes Oil different is the immense variety of products that can be derived from it. A "brief" list of some of these products: Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel oil, Propane, Ethane, Kerosene, Liquid petroleum gas, Lubricants , other alkanes, Heating oil, asphalt, bitumen, Plastic, bags, toys, candles (paraffin), clothing (polyester, nylon), cosmetics, petroleum jelly, perfume, dish-washing liquids, ink, bubble gums, car tires, etc, etc etc.
So it is obvious that the modern industry is completely dependant on Oil.

However, the amount and size of Oil Reserves on the U.S. is - or was- enormous. It is in fact the third producing country after Saudi Arabia and Russia. So once again, why it is running out so fast? *Answer is exponential growth in both population and oil-dependant technologies.*


http://www.countercurrents.org/wild280810.htm
*Plotting The Coming Oil Shock*

By Matthew Wild 

28 August, 2010
Peak Generation 

A study based on the Hubbert model of peak oil suggests a coming global oil shock may begin as early as 2014 – which ties in with the timeline suggested in a variety of other reports and statements.

.........I recently considered three major energy reports published so far in 2010 which take a number of different views on the issue:

......Three independent reports, one consistent prediction – the world will be entering into a period of oil supply turmoil sometime between the beginning of 2011 or 2013.

......The Forecasting World Crude Oil Production prediction model" for global peak oil in 2014 is presented here (left). As stated above, the model suggests world conventional crude production will peak in 2014 at 79 million barrels per day, and promptly enter decline.




......
*But what interests me is the culmulative picture that's emerging. Many different groups and agencies are talking about a coming oil supply crisis – whether they use the term peak oil or not. These disparate groups, spread across the globe, have considered various possibilities and probabilities – but are still talking about very similar possible outcomes. According to the various reports, we likely face an oil crisis as early as 2011, or as late as 2014*.


----------



## condog (29 August 2010)

*Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks*

Behind government dismissals of 'alarmist' fears there is growing concern over critical future energy supplies

Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak oil".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change


----------



## Slipperz (29 August 2010)

condog said:


> Slipperz our products are exttremely liquids rich the vast majority of our products we sell in dollar terms are Barrels of condensate, sometimes nick named NGL's etc. Our product actually attracts a premium in most areas over oil, becasue its easier to split its components for production.
> 
> Hence this is the reason why most dry gas producers are limiting or holding further investment till prices are more economic and we are ploughing ahead.
> 
> You got to watch the oil futures not the dry gas prices, as the best indicator of our profitability.




Sure but there is that dry gas quotient of production as well.

Given the fragile nature of the markets at the moment any sort of negative indicator is going to have an impact on the sentiment of any given stock.

Most of the small cap oil and gas companies are treading water in my portfolio and getting hammered on any sort of bad news. AUT is no exception ( sadly). 

Anyhoo hopefully we'll get a good start to the week and if there isn't any more drastically bad indicators coming out of the US we might get to claw back some losses that I'm sure most have been taking in the past few weeks.


----------



## condog (29 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> You can talk  fundamentals till you're blue in the face but if the product you're selling is declining in value by 20% in a month look out below.




Yeh but slipz this was a pullback that seemed inevitable after a very strong run. Our product which is 80% based on the crude price has pulled back 14% in 5 weeks and now rebounded 3% in a day. We are still extremely profitable based on these figures. 

And my main point is forget about the henry Hub, our profitability will go through the roof if the Henry hub prices rices significantly, but its been low dry gas prices for a long time now and hence AUT and all its smarte peers have switched focus to condensate only development. They are getting and selling dry gas as a by-product, but they arent targeting the dry gas generally at these prices. 

SEA did a Enercon conference on Friday and stated they have all thier dry gas wells on hold till prices recover. If anything this dry gas glut gives us a competitive advantage as we are clearly extremely liquids rich, allowing us to profitably continue development at a faster pace then most if not all of our peers.


----------



## Slipperz (29 August 2010)

condog said:


> Yeh but slipz this was a pullback that seemed inevitable after a very strong run. Our product which is 80% based on the crude price has pulled back 14% in 5 weeks and now rebounded 3% in a day. We are still extremely profitable based on these figures.
> 
> And my main point is forget about the henry Hub, our profitability will go through the roof if the Henry hub prices rices significantly, but its been low dry gas prices for a long time now and hence AUT and all its smarte peers have switched focus to condensate only development. They are getting and selling dry gas as a by-product, but they arent targeting the dry gas generally at these prices.
> 
> SEA did a Enercon conference on Friday and stated they have all thier dry gas wells on hold till prices recover. If anything this dry gas glut gives us a competitive advantage as we are clearly extremely liquids rich, allowing us to profitably continue development at a faster pace then most if not all of our peers.





All well and good. Until the price of WTI drops $3.32 a barrel in a week like it did this past week.

As a commodity producer AUT is not immune from the general economic malaise in the US. If the demand weakens so does the price and the SP only has one way to go.

That's the point I'm trying to make here.

And realistically the picture in the US is pretty grim.

Unemployment is still way too high, the federal deficits are astronomical, house sales are stalling. 

That's the reality of the market AUT is trading in.


----------



## condog (29 August 2010)

All true. The oil price takes all thise factors into consideration and if anything it may have bottomed, temporarily or permanently. 

A bounce on thursday and a jump on friday with all futures up very very strongly. Seems at least for now to have possibly changed trend, too early to call but im thinking by about Wed we will know. There are some Fed employment numbers out on the 3rd sep so we will get a good reading then when the oil futres respond to that.

The best indicator of price and economic strength is the oil futures, those players have teams of analsts pouring over data, coming up with consensus forcasts taking into accoutn all factors. 

And when it comes back to basics it the crude price that dictates our profitability, if AUT keeps progressing the way it does.


----------



## Slipperz (29 August 2010)

condog said:


> All true. The oil price takes all thise factors into consideration and if anything it may have bottomed, temporarily or permanently.
> 
> A bounce on thursday and a jump on friday with all futures up very very strongly. Seems at least for now to have possibly changed trend, too early to call but im thinking by about Wed we will know. There are some Fed employment numbers out on the 3rd sep so we will get a good reading then when the oil futres respond to that.
> 
> ...




Lets hope those employment numbers show some improvement or you know where we're going


----------



## condog (29 August 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Lets hope those employment numbers show some improvement or you know where we're going




I dont think anyones expecting them to be fantastic, as long as they dont dissapoint the analysts. Big Ben already announced he thought unemployment was too high, so the market wont be expecting brilliant numbers. However he also seemed to affirm currently he does not believe they are heading for a double dip.

You got to either sit back and say well he knows a lot more then i do and has every tool in the kit ti assess the real situation. Or i dont trust him and im going to buy bottled water, seeds, manure and a generator.

Im inclined to believe him and disbelieve the spin doctors selling papers for the moment. I think Ben would have too much egg on his face after last weeks upbeat comments if it was far worse then expected.

Right now, i know it sounds like a broken record, but the consensus was they believed him. With oil and the S&P up strongly.


----------



## WRONG'UN (31 August 2010)

Current AUT EKA comparative charts.
..............................................................................................


----------



## J&M (31 August 2010)

Huitzii said:


> Hi James, I will give you my take on AUT.
> Firstly its a great stock and ive made my fair share on it in short trades.
> AUT responds very well to good news ,and soon there will be more good news, that's almost a certainty.
> 68 and 90 day averages are pointing in a northerly direction and the 10 day average has taken a turn, but this is to be expected
> ...




Hello Huitzii & Nun thanks for your replys 

Seems to be holding at 96c 97c the Volumes are 345,000 
that seems to as not a large volume or is this classed a as large Vol ?although some are small amounts of around 300 to 400 

Looking at the chart it peaked at about $1.10 and the drop to 95c  it would have been a good time to sell at $1.10 as its now been settled down to 95c 96c 
I do understand the resistance level shown on the chart at 95 to 96 

At this time I don't see a drop to 90 or 92 as Nun suggested 
but how would I know ???

thanks for your help 

To condog I asked Nun for a comment as all of yours are positive and as a learner I wanted his point of view no harm intended at all 

James 






'


----------



## condog (31 August 2010)

J&M said:


> all of yours are positive and as a learner I wanted his point of view no harm intended at all
> 
> James




Thats cool but as a learner its probablu intuitive to recognise that when a stock goes up from 11c to $1.16 in under 8 months and analysts are still saying its target is significantly higher, one would have to be crackers not to be positive on it 95% of the time.

There are things that furstrate me like the time taking to frac , now , the Kowalick stuff up in Dec/Jan and the fact they havent hedged, despite me writing to them weeks ago when oil was over $80 and the futures went south. 

But honestly lifes got too many bloody hassles to focus on the negatives on a stock thats arguably the best on the entire asx at present.

Personally anyone arguing against this stock, has been terribly wrong so far. Thats not aimed at the market timers that fluctuate, but why go searching for negativity on a brilliant stock.


Right now if your after a balnaced point of view, this thing was imo overbought as i suggested on my graph a few days before it dived, it broke north of its long term trading channel. 

Right now its out the bottom of its channle and over sold. The blackline as of today actually touches the bottom of the channel.


----------



## AngusSmart (31 August 2010)

condog said:


> Right now its out the bottom of its channle and over sold. The blackline as of today actually touches the bottom of the channel.
> 
> View attachment 38680





Close.. should get to the bottom tomorrow perhaps? tho your trend line is a little higher and would touch on the chart i've done.. where are trend lines ment to really be anyway? they are just a rough guide correct?


someone call up your money your call and get them to cover it on tv


----------



## condog (31 August 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> someone call up your money your call and get them to cover it on tv




Some of them blokes know less about stocks then my 6 month old pup. Others are great, you got to be careful who you listen too on that show.


----------



## AngusSmart (31 August 2010)

condog said:


> Some of them blokes know less about stocks then my 6 month old pup. Others are great, you got to be careful who you listen too on that show.




yeah this is true, i dont think tonite was the one to go. there is an asian guy from fat prophets that likes oilers he could be the go.


----------



## condog (1 September 2010)

Oil got slammed overnight , the futures down as well. But key point is even after a strong fall they are still amazingly economic prices for AUT.


Other note: Re: May Unit 1
Permit #698511 has a similar name to this permit. When that well is completed, the lease name will change to May Unit 2, Well No. 1H.  08/30/2010 08:37:52 AM


----------



## condog (1 September 2010)

> From Wall Street Journal
> http://online.wsj.com/community/groups/world-forum-748/topics/economic-growth-china-india-help
> *OIL FUTURES: Crude Falls Below $72 As Oversupply Concerns Grow *
> 
> Light, sweet crude oil for October delivery settled $2.78, or 3.7%, lower, at $71.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded down $1.99, or 2.6%, at $74.61 a barrel




Sounds bad on face value , and yes inventories are high in western nations, but looking at the prices and futures, they are still massively profitable prices going forward for AUT.





Looking more like in my opinion a pullback in short term futures and prices to clear inventories with still lots of 2011 and  long term upward pressure

Undoubtably the US is still a major concern and sovrign debt will be for some time. But you also have to factor in that the headings "double dip" " GFC2" "Soveriegn debt" "PIGS" sell papers. Modest headlines saying we a simply bumping along in no mans land while debt is wound back with some good news and some bad news, and no one really knows which way we are heading doesnt really do much for media revenue.

Fact is all the big analysts have the US at less then 40% chance of a double dip. Technically that means its unlikely to happen.  Hmmm so what big newspaper headlines will we have tommorrow.

Im not for a moment saying its not a concern, it is. But seems the media is grossly exagerating fears some months and confidence others at present. The Jury is still well and truly out.

Todays news is - well ??? positive



> Economic growth in China and India will help U.S economy
> Tropoje, Albania: Albanian Minerals President & CEO Mr Mujaj said that "Economic growth in China and India will help U.S economy
> Global economy is set to recover and the global consumption of gold, oil, natural gas, food and metals will increase. With 2.5 billion people China and India will be a huge market for US companies".
> "Demand and prices will grow for wheat, oil, natural gas, steel, cooper, aluminum, gold, silver, iron ore, uranium, chrome ore, row materials and other metals".
> ...


----------



## condog (1 September 2010)

Plenty of upbeat news out today especailly for the Aussie economy, which is on fire.

sweet crude recovered 1/2 a percent from its walloping last night with longer term futures up 10th of a percent accross the board.

Good GDP fiures out. Our dollar jumped against the yen.

Good Chinese manufacturing figure out, up for 18th consecutive month.

US President Barack Obama has told Americans that restoring the US economy “must be our central mission as a people and my central responsibility as President”.

Nervous about jobs and an unraveling economy, shoppers spent ”” at best ”” only slightly more this August than last, according to data released Wednesday by MasterCard's SpendingPulse.

They are reporting this constrained retail spending as bad. Im actually stoked with it, as long as its edging up and not declining its good imo. The last thing we want is short term memory loss from americans and a GFC3 on a newer monumntally bigger scale. If americans are unwinding debt, yet still keeping there economy improving slightly across the board, then yi ha.


----------



## condog (1 September 2010)

Its a pretty picture you dont see that too often lately, green across the board. 




One things for sure at present the Aussie economy is ripping along.




The market timer predicted a rally on the ASX so we will see what happens

elsewhere

The Australian economy grew at its fastest pace in three years in the second quarter of the year.

*The growth was fuelled by demand for the country's iron ore and other commodities, mainly from China.*

elsewhere

Commodity prices posted their 13th consecutive monthly rise in August, driven by price increases in iron ore and coal. The prices of wheat and barley also rose sharply.

and elsewhere

THE Australian economy grew at its fastest pace in three years in the second quarter, fuelled by a surprise jump in household spending. 
The much better than expected 1.2 per cent rise in gross domestic product in the June quarter was quicker than the latest 0.7 per cent average of OECD members.

In a joint statement, Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Treasurer Wayne Swan said the economy continued to perform better than most other advanced economies.

“Today's data provides further evidence that a broad-based self-sustaining private sector recovery is gathering momentum as fiscal and monetary stimulus is withdrawn,” Mr Swan said.

and elsewhere 

The Australian debt market closed weaker as better than expected Chinese manufacturing and domestic economic growth results pushed yields higher.


We might be in for some more invester confidence on the asx after all.

But we really ned the US economy to show continued signs of slight recovery, visible through those 2011 oil futures.

elswhere

*Secret German military study warns of dramatic oil crisis*
Submitted by admin4 on 1 September 2010 - 12:17pm.
International
By IRNA,

Berlin : A confidential German army study warned of a looming oil crisis which could have dramatic political and economic consequences for the world, the Hamburg-based weekly news magazine Der Spiegel said Tuesday.

According to the report, a think-tank of the German army has for the first time ever analyzed the security policy dimensions of the peak oil problem.


----------



## condog (1 September 2010)

*Abraxas and Blue Stone Jointly Announce $100 Million Eagle Ford Shale Joint Venture*

Abraxas will contribute 8,333 net acres in the Eagle Ford Shale play to Blue Eagle Energy, LLC (the "JV") and receive a $25 million equity interest in the JV and Blue Stone will initially contribute $25 million in cash to the JV for a $25 million equity interest in the JV. In addition, Blue Stone has committed an additional $50 million in cash to the JV, which combined with the initial $25 million, will be used to acquire additional acreage and 3-D seismic data, and to drill and complete wells targeting the Eagle Ford Shale formation. Upon full funding, Abraxas will own a 25% equity interest in the JV and Blue Stone will own a 75% equity interest in the JV. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ab...joint-venture-2010-08-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp


----------



## Huitzii (1 September 2010)

condog said:


> *Secret German military study warns of dramatic oil crisis*
> Submitted by admin4 on 1 September 2010 - 12:17pm.
> International
> By IRNA,
> ...





I thought this was quite funny being a German military secret?
Not much of a secret anymore ,thanks to number 1 spy Condog lolz


----------



## condog (1 September 2010)

Huitzii said:


> I thought this was quite funny being a German military secret?
> Not much of a secret anymore ,thanks to number 1 spy Condog lolz




I have my spys, if you go outside tonight have a goood lok around.

Information is a commodity just like oil, it has a price, if you pay it you get it.

Mind you i had an AK47 pointed at my head the whole time. I thoiught Nun was inthere somewhere . just kiddin dude.


----------



## condog (2 September 2010)

This mornings news headlines are exactlye what us AUT holder want to see.  With the US confidence up, oil up, oil futuers up strongly and gold down.

*US Stocks Up;Data Soothe Fears Of 'Double Dip';DJIA Up 238*

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investors bid up riskier assets on Wednesday as the latest manufacturing data helped soothe fears over an economic "double dip." 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 238 points, or 2.4%, to 10252 in recent trading, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 2.8% to 1078 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.7% to 2171. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, seen as a leading indicator, gained 3.5%.


----------



## condog (2 September 2010)

More good news



> *NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Energy stocks kicked off the month of September with a powerful rally, unleashed by positive economic data from the U.S., China and Australia on Wednesday. *
> 
> Energy stocks picked up steam after a report showed an unexpected rise in the U.S. ISM manufacturing index for August. A positive read on Chinese manufacturing activity and better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth in Australia also underpinned bullish sentiment in energy stocks.
> 
> ...




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-stocks-snap-recent-losing-streak-2010-09-01

imo looks like energy might have found a temporary bottom. It will depend how many back to back days we can get with good news headlines like todays??

elsewhere

*US Stocks Jump Into September With Fifth-Biggest Gain Of Year*

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, with Bank of America, Caterpillar and J.P. Morgan Chase leading broad gains in a strong start to September after manufacturing data topped expectations. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 254.75 points, or 2.54%, to 10269.47, marking its biggest one-day gain since July 7 and its fifth-largest one-day gain this year. All 30 of the measure's components rose, led by Bank of America, which jumped 76 cents, or 6.1%, to 13.21. Caterpillar was also strong, up 3, or 4.6%, to 68.16, and J.P. Morgan added 1.38, or 3.8%, to 37.74. 

The Nasdaq Composite gained 62.81, or 2.97%, to 2176.84. The Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 30.96, or 2.95%, to 1080.29, with all of its sectors ending the session higher. The industrial and financial sectors posted the biggest percentage increases. 

.....................

"Investors were looking for optimism, and they found it," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "They shrugged off ADP, but like it or not, investors are going to come face to face with jobs data at the end of the week. I think that's going to have a much bigger impact on the future direction of the market than what we're trifling with today." 

From
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...er-with-fifth-biggest-gain-of-year-2010-09-01


----------



## condog (3 September 2010)

*Crude-Oil Futures Rise After Blast on Mariner Energy Platform in U.S. Gulf*

Crude oil rose for a second day after a platform owned by Mariner Energy Inc. in the Gulf of Mexico was struck by an explosion, bolstering concern that regulations will reduce output in the region. 

......
“We’re rallying because of the explosion on the oil platform,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks and Opinions LLC in Houston. *“It’s clear that the government now has the ammunition to move ahead with a drilling moratorium. There will be higher costs and a slowdown in production from the Gulf.” *

End Quote - From Bllomberg

Looks like the green movement will have the ammunition it needs to force a serious offshore morortorium on drilling. At the very least its going to add more red tape and safety costs to offshore, making onshore an even better investment fo the majors.

I wouldnt be surprised if this causes a rash of M & A in the shales, as off shore drillers look to invest onshore.


----------



## condog (3 September 2010)

*U.S. military warns about massive oil shortage by 2015*
Thursday, September 02, 2010 by: David Gutierrez, staff writer

The world will run out of oil surpluses by 2012, with severe shortages following as little as three years later, a U.S. military report has warned.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," reads the report from the U.S. Joint forces command.

elsewhere

in The Australian

The latest government data added to an optimistic report in the previous session from the Institute for Supply Management on US manufacturing activity.

The US Labour Department said new claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly, by 6000 to 472,000. US pending home sales rose 5.2 per cent in July after falling for two months in a row, beating expectations. July factory orders rose slightly, with much of the gains attributed to commercial airplanes and other transportation products, markets that are heavy users of oil and fuel.

Also in the australian

*Oil rises above $US75 on economic data *

*OIL rose above $US75 a barrel, rebounding from earlier losses after data hinted that the US recovery continues despite its slower pace.* 
Light, sweet crude for October delivery settled $US1.11 higher at $US75.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded US56 cents higher at $US76.91 a barrel.


----------



## AngusSmart (3 September 2010)

And the good news as of today..

Hopefully we can move up to the 200 a bit quicker than some that were added to the 300 also, like AZZ i think we're much better than them


----------



## condog (3 September 2010)

Addition to the ASX300 Index should create some buying pressure from ASX300 index funds.

Its a nice addtion. And its come on what looked like being an up day anyhow. Should also attract some more broker and media coverage.


----------



## condog (3 September 2010)

Looking like a strong finish to the week with buy sell imbalance re-appearing. Addition tot he ASX 300 wont have hurt buyer demand imo. Likewise oil bounce is a big positive for our end to the week.

This is on good volume as well, over 1.2M already. Thats a big turnaround from the last week.

Will we hit a new high, on the back of index fund demand and sheep following the market mood??

Theres a bot chipping away on the sell side constantly offering 9 and 10 shares at .05 below sell side.

Our little ombors over at EKA dont lok so fortunate, they are in the red, and have very few buyers stacking up. Nokia, is this the start of the divergence ive been calling for a while?? Its gotta come soon imo.


----------



## prgudula (3 September 2010)

Current Market Depth for AUT

    * Buyers                            * Sellers

    * 677,590                          * 470,195

    * bid $1.055                      * ask $1.060


----------



## nioka (3 September 2010)

condog said:


> Nokia, is this the start of the divergence ive been calling for a while?? Its gotta come soon imo.




No. Just a good opportunity for me to trade a few more AUT for EKA at a good rate. It is part of the regular long time change in relative prices. Buying close to 4.5 EKA for 1 AUT. Not long ago I was only selling 3.5 EKA to get 1 AUT. Builds up the EKA numbers ready for the mythical take over offer. Traditionally EKA is slow out of the blocks but it does follow big brother to the event. This tactic has been working for me now for three years and I cant see a reason to stop yet. ( I wonder if agent has his buy at 75c still going)


----------



## condog (3 September 2010)

Tonights news will be ganag busters for AUT come monday if its good. Mark my words. If those numbers out tonight are better then expected, lookout next week. As to me at least that will indicate the hype about US double dip will have been just that, hype. 

Lets wait and see, but im hoping for good numbers inthe US tonight.


----------



## condog (4 September 2010)

54000 job losses and 67000 private sector jobs created. These numbers where far better then expected, especially the 67000 private sector jobs created. Dow up, oil down slightly on inventory clearance issues.Hurricane Earl trajectory.

Imo you dont create 67000 jobs in a month, and beat analyst expectations by double with jobs growth and half with job losses, when your economy is going into a double dip. 

These figures out in the US this week indicate to me the US is looking far more like a soft laanguishing  rather then a double dip at this stage.  A view i think next weeks papers might start to spruke??


----------



## condog (4 September 2010)

A very small snippet fromthe Eureka report to avoid copyright:



> Here's a rundown of all the PMIs for August that came out this week, with the previous month in brackets:
> 
> Global, 53.8 (54.3)
> US, 56.3 (55.5)
> ...



PMI = Purchasing Managers Index, above 50 = expanding, ie = good for that economy.  Every Major economy including Global, except Tiawan is expanding. Most importantly, The US and Europe are well above 50. A really positive sign.

It doesnt mean we are racing ahead, it just means where growing and not heading into recession imo.

Peak Oil here we come in 2011, is my guess, im picking it now and i know i will get bagged by sceptics. But im saying $100+ oil by mid 2011. 

Im also saying right now i reckon the chances of a US double dip are out of mind for the next few weeks. These figures and the employment figures released today paint a better picture then the one weve been sold for the last two weeks. 

Whils short term oil might suffer till inventory clears, the futures from mid 2011 will start to rise imo. Ans AUt will go with it imo 

The other thing is all those cashed up balance sheets courtesy of the greatest shift of debt in history from enterprise to governements might just now start to fuel the biggest round of M&A activity we have ever seen, particularly in agriculture and energy. Just my  

More news from AUT this week on spuds and fracs imo.


----------



## Slipperz (4 September 2010)

condog said:


> A very small snippet fromthe Eureka report to avoid copyright:
> 
> 
> PMI = Purchasing Managers Index, above 50 = expanding, ie = good for that economy.  Every Major economy including Global, except Tiawan is expanding. Most importantly, The US and Europe are well above 50. A really positive sign.
> ...




Oil is critically  important to the global economy.

It is also finite as peak  oil proponents glady point out and at some point in the near future it will revalue as a commodity.

I would expect to see many small to medium cap oilers getting rerated as this eventuates in the near future.


----------



## condog (4 September 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Oil is critically  important to the global economy.
> 
> It is also finite as peak  oil proponents glady point out and at some point in the near future it will revalue as a commodity.
> 
> I would expect to see many small to medium cap oilers getting rerated as this eventuates in the near future.




Yep the key thing is this. If peak oil is a sham, then these companies will probably turn out to be great investments anyway. If its true, which it appears to be imo, and many more of the consensus view, then who can afford not to have oil stocks as a hedge.

One things for sure if peak oil evolves, as the pentagon, US military, UK military, german military and many others have said could evolve as early as late 2011, then i will still be driving my car, and in fact i might upgrade to a ferrari. ....  these stocks imo are not only the best investments i can find, but they are a rediculously cheap insurance policy against peak oil.


----------



## condog (4 September 2010)

*Eagle Ford Shale Exceeds Expectations*
September 3, 2010

While many shale gas plays suffer under oversupply of shale gas and resulting low NG prices, the Eagle Ford shale play has *exceeded expectations due to growing crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas production*

Then blah blah blah not worht reading......

http://www.glgroup.com/News/Eagle-Ford-Shale-Exceeds-Expectations-50363.html
*

Permian Basin, Eagle Ford Shale are hot drilling centers in Texas*


With natural gas prices dropping below $4 per 1,000 cubic feet, the Eagle Ford has become an increasingly appealing area because substantial portions of it also offer opportunities to recover higher-priced oil, condensate and natural gas liquids such as ethane and butane. 

Energy companies from large to small are taking stakes in the Eagle Ford, where approximately 90 rigs were running in mid-August, a level of activity roughly on par with North Texas' Barnett Shale, the largest gas-producing area in the U.S. 

The Eagle Ford has become "a very active marketplace for transactions" and "large-acreage positions are garnering premiums," said Chris Simon, a managing director and energy investment banker for Raymond James & Associates. 

"There are still 13 to 14 deals out there on the market," he said. "It's going to be a very active area for deals for the rest of this year," he added.


Read more: http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/09/02/2442683/permian-basin-eagle-ford-shale.html#ixzz0yYdkHWqN
*
Natural-Gas Futures Rise After Jobs Report Signals Increase in Fuel Demand*

Natural gas futures rose the most in seven weeks after companies added more jobs than forecast in August, raising speculation that fuel demand will rebound as the U.S. recovers from the deepest recession since the 1930s. 

The fuel gained as private payrolls climbed 67,000, after a revised 107,000 gain in July, Labor Department figures showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a gain of 40,000. Traders project that natural- gas demand will rise because it’s cheaper than coal, said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. 

“The natural gas market is reacting to improving fundamentals,” Larry said. “Natural gas has been so undervalued against coal that demand and prices are bound to increase.” 
........

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...s-report-signals-increase-in-fuel-demand.html

*Chinese oil demand 'still strong'*

Chinese oil consumption could be set to increase further over the next few months as the country's economic performance gets back on track, driving prices up and adding to the worries of struggling motorists across the world.

http://www.thefuelcardpeople.co.uk/... fuel card/Fuel card news: Chinese oil demand


*Peak Oil Worth A Read*
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22419.html

The sooner the public wakes up to this situation the better, not only for AUt, but for alternative energy funding and economic sustainability.

Rememebr we where at $120 per bo prior to GFC, the GFC has only harmed supply not helped it.

not sure i agree with the graph, i believe the price will help alieviate some demand, stopping transition to poverty.


----------



## condog (5 September 2010)

*Crude oil price forecast next week, oil to trade lower?*
Oil prices could be in for another roller coaster ride next week and end the week trading lower as US refineries perform the annual 2010 maintenance, reducing oil demand.


----------



## condog (5 September 2010)

*Macroeconomic indicators - Chinese manufacturing figures ease fears of slowdown*

China Daily quoted analyst said manufacturing in China rebounded in August easing fears of a steep correction to the economy.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said the Purchasing Managers Index a major indicator of economic activity rose to 51.7% in August up by 0.5 percentage points from the July figure and reversed a three-month fall in the growth rate. The index considers 50 to be a benchmark figure and the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction. Anything above 50 indicates expansion.

http://www.steelguru.com/chinese_ne...ng_figures_ease_fears_of_slowdown/163556.html


----------



## condog (6 September 2010)

T3 2nd frac phase flows out at a staggering 819boc pd. 

Patinio drilling ahead with the horizontal section, is at 15,000 ft plus.

One more Ipenema well before endo of 2010.


----------



## Sharejon (6 September 2010)

Yes, when they up their drilling schedule- that should bring some good times.


----------



## condog (7 September 2010)

A Small Snippet From Laetst Euroz Update - Thanks to PRGudula

Movement through the reserves classifi cations is more a function of time taken for fi eld development, rather than risk.
Current levels of activity should result in a majority of 3P res’v converting to 1P and 2P category in the next *12-18mnths.*
Upside to reserves will (in time) be a function of closer well spacing; multi-lateral subsurface development; and enhanced ultimate
recoveries and decline rates as a function of improving development techniques.
Recent Turnbull-3H results imply potential for a *2 to 2.5x improvement to early stage production *following application of a new
completion design.
Consequently, production results from Kowalik-1R, Luna-1H (Sugarloaf – AUT 10%) and Petina-1H (Ipanema – AUT 30%) should benefi t
from the new completion process, results are expected through Sept.

......
Netherland and Sewell’s NPV10 of US$986m on the current fi eld development plan compares favourably to our risked (25% of gross
production) NPV10 of A$435m.

.......

*Consequently, this suggests on a post tax basis, AUT has the potential to double over next 12-18 months.*

.....

Our $1.50/sh valuation remains heavily risked: on-going strong drilling results will directionally underpin a valuation well in
excess of $2/sh. BUY


----------



## condog (7 September 2010)

Its news headlines like these we want to see as AUT investors


> *World markets rise as double-dip fears ease*
> 
> LONDON ”” World stock markets advanced modestly Monday as investors rode momentum from Friday, when an upbeat U.S. jobs report eased fears that the global economy could slip back into recession.
> 
> ...



http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h3kgMAkbLwyfxBdjzw8Pc4KZ7DhQD9I2EVU00

Elsewhere it looks like there short term pressure on crude till inventories clear, with medium term confidence. The US was closed for the holiday so the real picture will appear tmoz.


----------



## condog (7 September 2010)

> *Why the US is buying AustraliaRobert Gottliebsen*
> 
> Published 8:05 AM, 3 Sep 2010 Last update 9:59 AM, 3 Sep 2010
> We have seen retailers like Costco, Zara and Gap plus Lowe’s (via the Woolworths joint venture) come to Australia in recent times, but the pace will accelerate.
> ...



They now have thier prowing eyes on our companies, and you can bet your bottom dollar high performing small cap companies like AUT will be right on thier radar. If not snapped up first by the chinese or indian predators.

Elsewhere on business spectator


> Credit Agricole oil analyst Christophe Barret said he expected oil prices to stay close to $US75 for some time:
> 
> "Right now the level around $US75 is pretty reasonable," he said. "I think that until we get some big oversupply or a big rebound in demand, we will not move from the range of $US75-$US80."




It appears the funds are beginning to short oil once over $75 and on mass by $80 , while longing below $74 and on mass at $71ish from what im reading.  So i myself see it floating in the range $72 to $76 or so until something big changes. Those levels are extremely profitable imo for AUT.


----------



## condog (7 September 2010)

All great news headlines as far as AUT is concerned. Just hold the TO offers for a few years please.

*Economy's looking up for now as double-dip fears ease 
Updated 7h 28m ago  *

A steady flow of not-entirely-terrible economic news has eased worries of renewed recession and shifted the political spotlight from the Federal Reserve to the White House.

"The August data we've been getting has been encouraging. ... It's very likely that the economy continues to move forward in the coming months," said economist Bruce Kasman of J.P. Morgan.

The economic news increasingly has a bipolar cast to it. One day, a downward revision to the second-quarter growth rate makes a double-dip recession look like a real threat. The next, a drop in first-time jobless claims suggests that the wounded U.S. economy may muddle through after all.

"The economy is having a slow and halting recovery, because that's the nature of recessions triggered by financial crises," says Rob Shapiro, chairman of consulting firm Sonecon in Washington, D.C.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2010-09-07-econoutlook07_ST_N.htm

6 Sep, 2010, 02.23PM IST,REUTERS 
*Reliance not finished with US shale buys*

MUMBAI/NEW YORK: Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, which has struck three shale gas joint ventures with US firms this year, may make a full buyout next as the cash-rich firm builds the knowledge it needs to run such operations. 

Reliance has received about 20 to 25 pitches from investment bankers for shale assets, Reliance Chief Financial Officer Alok Agarwal said recently. Bankers say potential targets include Fort Worth, Texas-headquartered Quicksilver Resources Inc, Denver, Colorado-based Enduring Resources and companies with assets in the Horn River shale formation in Canada. 

Another firm on Reliance's radar may be Houston, Texas-based EOG Resources, which said in early August it plans to sell about 180,000 acres in U.S. shale plays -- underground rock formations that hold reserves of oil and natural gas. Shale gas accounts for between 15 percent and 20 percent of U.S. gas production, but is expected to quadruple in coming years, touching off a scramble among producers large and small for access to resources. 

He could face competition from other firms, including Royal Dutch Shell, Total and Mitsui, which have done shale gas deals previously, and those that have not bought a shale asset yet such as Chevron and Encana. Reliance is expected to generate free cash flow of $18 billion between this year and the fiscal year that ends in March 2014, giving it plenty of firepower for investment. 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ed-with-US-shale-buys/articleshow/6505633.cms 

*Peak Oil Scares Germany*
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=7460.6038.0.0


----------



## Sharejon (7 September 2010)

Cheers for keeping us updated Condog.

You sure are passionate about this stock!


----------



## prgudula (8 September 2010)

SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Luna #1H Operations Update
The drilling operations on the Luna #1H well are now complete. The well was drilled to a depth of 17,370 ft, providing approximately 5,000 ft of horizontal section within the reservoir. The production casing string has now been run and cemented in place and the rig has demobilized from this location. The well will be fracture stimulated, in a similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Ford Shale trend, in due course. This is the second post-farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI in which Aurora has participated.
May #1H
The drilling rig will now mobilize to the next drilling location which is also within the Sugarloaf AMI and is expected to spud the May #1H well shortly.
ASX participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Aurora (ASX:AUT) – 10% (post farmout)
Adelphi (ASX:ADI) – 10% (post farmout)
Eureka (ASX:EKA) – 6.25% (post farmout)
Aurora also participates as a 50% WI holder in a larger area made up of an additional ~ 27,000 acres within the Sugarkane Field adjacent to Sugarloaf. Aurora is the only listed participant in these areas which are also subject to farmout to Hilcorp for the drilling, stimulation and tie in of a further 4 new wells (please refer to earlier releases).


----------



## Sdajii (8 September 2010)

The bots are quite blatant this morning, as is often the case lately. I can only guess as to why they are trying to push the price down, but presumably it's an attempt to lower the price in order to allow the bots' owners to buy more, or maybe make a takeover more possible. Thoughts?

I'm surprised that such obvious bot activity isn't followed up.

If the price is being pushed down artificially, I suppose at least we know someone else thinks it's a stock worth trying hard to get your hands on.

Or, am I totally misunderstanding things? (wouldn't be the first time!)


----------



## condog (8 September 2010)

prgudula said:


> SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS UPDATE
> Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
> Luna #1H Operations Update
> The drilling operations on the Luna #1H well are now complete. The well was drilled to a depth of 17,370 ft, providing approximately 5,000 ft of horizontal section within the reservoir. The production casing string has now been run and cemented in place and the rig has demobilized from this location. The well will be fracture stimulated, in a similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Ford Shale trend, in due course. This is the second post-farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI in which Aurora has participated.
> ...




Yep continuation of drilling and fraccing adding emmense value to our underlying assets. All the while cashflow is getting closer and closer and from the recent results of the 2nd portion of T3, our NVP and recoverable resource will be increasing as well.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (8 September 2010)

Sdajii said:


> The bots are quite blatant this morning, as is often the case lately. I can only guess as to why they are trying to push the price down, but presumably it's an attempt to lower the price in order to allow the bots' owners to buy more, or maybe make a takeover more possible. Thoughts?
> 
> I'm surprised that such obvious bot activity isn't followed up.
> 
> ...





You gotta be kidding right? People will only sell if they want to so I don't see how this is the case mate.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (8 September 2010)

Hey condog,

When do you anticipate the next bit of (good) news (reporting) to come from AUT. Im looking to buy again shortly but a bit of a timeframe to get in to either ride or fall off the gains or loses from another report would be handy. 

Obviously I'll check out my options again but a few dates would be great mate. I can't find anything. :S


----------



## AngusSmart (8 September 2010)

John, i am no expert but...

I might be able to give you some insight just by looking at the chart. and its trending pattern thats on going..

We're about at the middle of the trend on an upside move with news flowing constant and positive as always again now that the drilling crews are back on our acreage.. however we are trading a little sideways at the moment..

Condog, did you have a table made out with what wells had what done and what wells needed fracturing etc?


----------



## condog (8 September 2010)

Hey John the thing is there is no major big news imo, its more a consistent flow of news on spuds, fracs, drill completions, 30 day flows, 60 day flows, quarterlies. 

The only bigger news i forsee is when the cashflow begins in Q4. 

On a timing note, this isnt advice, but i was gunna post it anyway. Its just a simple graph with 25 day moving average. It would seem that the 25 day moving average is a pretty good guide. Other then the long period of consolidation post CR and SPP, everytime its hit the 25MA, it seems to indicate the beginning of the next rise. ?? Its recently hit it and i think judging by the buy sell imbalance today we might be on the next leg up right now. Id personally expect it to be a short one given the short term weakness of crude fundamentals. perhaps hitting 1.22 - 1.27 before pulling back again??




Im estimating 8-10c growth per month on average with the 2 rig progress. and 12.15c once the 3rd rig turns up in january.  But thats my guestimate and it is based on crude remaining in the $68 -$76 range.

Please do not rely or make decisions on this. At the end of the day im a mug punter like the rest of you. Do your own research always. Live and die by your own decisions. And seek expert advice.

Angus i havent updated it yet in light of yesterdays and todays news. Theres a pretty good one just missing todaqs rlease int eh investor presentation released yesterday. I will post it below.


----------



## condog (8 September 2010)

Two slides from the preso yesterday show progress as requested Angus. Then my old one which i will update flows soon.


----------



## condog (9 September 2010)

Hilcorp are still in the Acqusition business....

Sep 1 2010 

Hilcorp Energy I, L.P. has acquired 85% working interests in an additional 1,814 gross acres controlled by the Company in the Eagle Ford trend in Gonzales County, Texas. Lucas received $1.3 million in this third closing. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lu...p-energy-i-lp-2010-09-01?reflink=MW_news_stmp


Abraxas will contribute 8,333 net acres in the Eagle Ford Shale play to Blue Eagle Energy, LLC (the "JV") and receive a $25 million equity interest in the JV and Blue Stone will initially contribute $25 million in cash to the JV for a $25 million equity interest in the JV. In addition, Blue Stone has committed an additional $50 million in cash to the JV, which combined with the initial $25 million, will be used to acquire additional acreage and 3-D seismic data, and to drill and complete wells targeting the Eagle Ford Shale formation. Upon full funding, Abraxas will own a 25% equity interest in the JV and Blue Stone will own a 75% equity interest in the JV. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ab...joint-venture-2010-08-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp


----------



## condog (9 September 2010)

It seems the buy sell imbalance is currently set for a great day for AUT. 
821 to 381, havent seen that for over a week. Finished onthe high yesterday. The bollengers piched a few days ago.


----------



## condog (9 September 2010)

AUT graph with my growth channel. 
Using Euroz 1.50 targets indicated in grey for 1st of each month it looks like being 1.22 1.32 1.42 1.50 roughly speaking.

Using current growth rates it looks like achieving 1.35 for 1st Jan
1st of each month being 1.18 1.25 1.30 1.35
However current growth curve does not allow for possible significant rerating upon cash flow in Q4. Also does not allow for possible anticipation of possible up to 50% increase in growth rate upon 3rd rig arriving in Jan.




It will wiggle about on the way, but that in my opinion is roughly what im expecting if all other factors remain roughly equal.


----------



## condog (10 September 2010)

For the tech heads, courtesy of PRGudula.

Nice find PR. Gives a very quick guide to the resistance levels.

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis


----------



## prgudula (10 September 2010)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39089306

US Crude Jumps on Canada-US Pipeline Shutdown

U.S. crude for October jumped to near $75 on Friday after a leak forced Enbridge to shut down the biggest pipeline supplying Canadian oil to refineries in the Midwest and to a key storage hub in Oklahoma.


----------



## condog (10 September 2010)

Short termers up on risk of pipeline, but mid termers doan on inventory levels.

Still plenty of mixed signals, but no concerns for AUT at these prices imo.


----------



## condog (10 September 2010)

Very Importantly imo

*Fears of a second recession ease, at least for now*
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and JEANNINE AVERSA (AP) – 16 hours ago


The last time the nation suffered something like a double-dip recession was in 1980 and 1981. That period met a generally accepted definition of a double-dip: The economy shrinks, starts growing again, then shrinks again for at least six months.

The second recession back then, from July 1981 to November 1982, was a severe one. But it ushered in a period of explosive growth starting in 1983.

This time, few economists foresee a similar bust-boom-bust cycle. Rather, they expect a continuation of the steady but low-grade rebound from the recession, which began in December 2007 and is thought to have ended last year.

Thursday's data added to confidence that the economy will keep growing slowly and eventually lead to more job creation.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsBX19lGwD9I4JPP05

*U.S. just going through a Canadian-style recovery*


Amid all the fear and loathing about the never-ending, jobless, U.S. recovery it’s worth bearing in mind that this path has been well-trodden before — by Canada. That should give those who believe the U.S. is sliding into a Japanese-style deflation, a 1930s-style Depression or never-ending stagnation, some comfort.
As Doug Porter,  at BMO Capital Markets, points out in a research note on Thursday, Canada has already regained nearly all its job losses since this recession. But this is swift by traditional Canadian standards. It took four years for Canada to accomplish that feat in the early 1980s cycle and nearly five years in the 1990s cycle.
Like the United States, a monumental housing bust was a major feature of Canada’s early 1990s cycle, exacerbated by the kind of government cutbacks the U.S. is now likely facing.
U.S. payrolls are still 5.5% below pre-recession peaks, Mr. Porter points out, a hole it could easily take another three to four years more to dig out of it.
But the United States is likely to pull through, just like Canada did.

Read more: http://business.financialpost.com/2...ough-a-canadian-style-recovery/#ixzz0z81m6vCF

*China's imports leapt in August, boding well for a strengthening of domestic demand in an economy that has become a major driver of global growth.*

http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...s-shrinks-as-imports-leap-20100910-1544m.html


----------



## condog (11 September 2010)

Both headlines we need for AUT - US economy improving and Oil Up

*Wall Street Gains as Economic Outlook Brightens*

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 were on track on Friday to close the week with a seventh gain in the last eight sessions, a period that has seen investors worst fears about the economy start to dissipate.

The S&P 500 has rallied nearly six percent since the end of August, a month when stocks skidded as investors worried that the economy was headed for a double-dip recession. The gradual improvement in the data continued on Friday as U.S. wholesale inventories surged by the largest amount in two years in July.

"That's going to support the probability that the third-quarter GDP is at least going to be a positive number," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co in Nashville.* "All of a sudden the numbers started to turn just enough to say that we're not going to have a double dip, and that forced a lot of money back into the market."*


Energy companies gained as *crude oil futures jumped 3 percent to $76.46 per barrel *after the forced shutdown of the biggest pipeline supplying Canadian oil to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and to a key storage hub in Oklahoma.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11600480

*Oil climbs after revision of global demand estimates*

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Crude oil futures climbed more than 2% on Friday, buoyed in part by an upward revision to global oil demand for this year. 

.....on Friday morning the International Energy Agency said that it had increased its forecast for global oil demand this year by 50,000 barrels a day. The IEA now forecasts demand of 86.6 million barrels a day for 2010. It held its forecast for 2011 at 87.9 million barrels a day. 

......Also boosting prices, the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 3 fell by 1.9 million barrels, far less than a trade group estimated late Wednesday. 

Hopes for oil demand were also lifted in Asia on Friday after Japan raised its second-quarter growth estimate and after China said its imports of crude rose in July. 

*"You'll see the knee-jerk reaction," to China-related data as the country's financial well-being and economic status has an effect on commodity markets, said Newsom.* 

"*But longer-term, we have to go back to underlying fundamentals.* Growth in demand is a huge question mark. We're going to see short-term [price] spikes as money moves from one market to the next. Until we see something substantial change in the fundamentals, it's more than likely these types of moves aren't going to hold." 

Newsom said the market appears "well overvalued" and that charts indicate prices could reach the low $50-a-barrel price range this winter. ??????


Not sure i agree with $50. Normally on inventory levels this high yes. But imo oil is a speculative commoditty and any speculation of peak oil being imminent will force contracts for supply and hence higher futures, or atleast underpin a reasoanble price going forward.


----------



## condog (11 September 2010)

Updated Chart for tech heads courtesy of 5haretrader.
Loooks promising for a new high based on this chart. Lets wait see.


----------



## condog (11 September 2010)

*US sharemarket hits 4-week high as energy stocks gain *
Donna Kardos Yesalavich From: Dow Jones Newswires September 11, 2010 

US stocks rose to extend a winning run for the second consecutive week today, as energy companies lit up on oil demand forecasts.

.......Today’s climb across the rest of the market came as data showed bigger than expected Chinese imports and a larger than forecast increase in inventories at US wholesalers. The reports followed other economic releases over the past two weeks that have beat expectations.

“The recent economic reports are confirming that, while the rate of recovery in our economy has slowed, it's still on a positive trajectory,”....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ergy-stocks-gain/story-e6frg91o-1225918192307

The article was accompanied by this pic. When the media start using pics of bulls the mood tends to change imo. Right now im seeing the possible start of and Elliot Wave 3, which is the longest uptrned in the 5 wave cycle. Time will tell, but i think if tis right which we should know in another week , we might be in for some very interesting times and some significant rises in oil prices.


----------



## Sean K (11 September 2010)

condog said:


> *US sharemarket hits 4-week high as energy stocks gain *



Shouldn't this be in just a general "oil" or "energy" thread? 

I suppose any energy company would be interested, just seems like bumping this particular thread really. 

I come here to read AUT news.


----------



## condog (11 September 2010)

kennas said:


> Shouldn't this be in just a general "oil" or "energy" thread?
> 
> I suppose any energy company would be interested, just seems like bumping this particular thread really.
> 
> I come here to read AUT news.




Its extremely relevant to AUT growth prospects, the primary macro driver is oil price, driven by the two macro's of the US recovery and China. 

Knowing the prospects of those two allows AUT investores two know our forward profitability. We now know AUT and Hilcorp can do thier bit to an exceptional standard, what we really need to monitor is the oil price via its drivers.

Come monday AUT investors are wondering whats in store, well in the absence of news, this is the drivers for mondasy sp.


----------



## tomcat (11 September 2010)

kennas said:


> Shouldn't this be in just a general "oil" or "energy" thread?
> 
> I suppose any energy company would be interested, just seems like bumping this particular thread really.
> 
> I come here to read AUT news.




Info from a few posters on HC about AUT for you Kennas (Im sure they dont mind):

*MIR911*
1. management getting the big end of town interested from presentation with a good story to tell.
2.hilcorp drilling about 50 wells by the end of 2011 & improving on drilling & frac techniques as demonstrated with T3.
3. getting into the asx 300 & probably not to far away from the asx 200.
4. if well spacings are reduced to 40 acres per well forget $2+.
5. plenty more but can't remember OGG can help lol. 
*Oil Gold Gas*
6. cash flow about to begin in Q4
7. Memebr of S&P ASX300 now so plenty of funds will need to acquire.
8. When third rig turns up in Jan, if frac crews can keep up then growth should improve by approx 50%
9 I have forward cash flow projection targets of 1.59 for Dec 31 2010 and $3.47 for Dec 2011. My opinion only.
10. Two brokers saying approx Dec 2010 1.32 and 1.50, so consensus = approx 1.41
11. Canadian Oil pipeline leak triggered shock supply issiues ??? unknown effect
12. Latest news on US seems definitely to be pointing at slow recovery rather then double dip
13. Latest China manufacturing figures are fantastic.

I believe OGG is Condog


----------



## condog (11 September 2010)

*Next year looks just as grim for natural gas producers
Posted Friday, Sep. 10, 2010*


The problem is "too much supply, pure and simple," 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/09/10/2459162/next-year-looks-just-as-grim-for.html#ixzz0zDhz5mDx

At first glance this sounds alarming for AUT, but given our high liquids ratios, this could actually be a blessing in disguise, stalling many of our competitors and allowing us to either clean up thier assets once gas prices are highly economic, or give us the growth and profit , to take on plays in newly developed shales elsewhere while amny of our smaller peers struggle on dry gas prices.  ??   something to ponder.


----------



## condog (12 September 2010)

Paints a rosy picture for monday, with the US double dip fears receeding, China growth figures indicated a well constructed soft landing imo, and Peak Oil on everyones concern list. This canadian pipe leak may just highlight how extremely vulnerable any interuption to supplies makes us.

Peak Oil clearly hasnt arrived, but with demand and supply so close to balance, it highlights we dont need much of a supply side problem, or even anticipated growth in demand to cause a bit of panic. 

Mon, ??? should be a nice day for AUT.


----------



## condog (13 September 2010)

New Investor presentation out in the ASX announcments for AUT

Well  worth a read , has some excellent pictures of well locations.

Also explains the NSAI valuations, and hopes to convert 3P to 1P in 12-18 months.

Peak negative cash flow in 2011 which we knew, $38M in cash stil avail. 

Has great explanation of drilling plans to 2017 and beyond. With cumulative cash flow projected beyond $2B in 2024, faster if they reduce well spacing to <80 acres.

Still very liquids rich at 80% of Rev.

Well worth a read, theres a clear funded plan for growth and it inspires a lot of confidence in these guys.


----------



## Assasin (13 September 2010)

Thanks Condog,

          Thats a great presentation that clearly shows what we're invested in.
       Just keep the US economy in check and a 1 and a 1/2 cent rise each week on average is very realistic for the next 12 months in my opinion.


----------



## AngusSmart (13 September 2010)

Hit a new high today and some decent volume starting to come in, nice presentation too, looks like it might be some good bribing material to keep the wife off my back to sell. i think i need to hang onto this for some time now!

heres the updated trend


----------



## condog (13 September 2010)

Assasin said:


> Thanks Condog,
> 
> Thats a great presentation that clearly shows what we're invested in.
> Just keep the US economy in check and a 1 and a 1/2 cent rise each week on average is very realistic for the next 12 months in my opinion.




Yeh approx 8-10c per month for 2010 imo then approx 12 - 15c per month in 2011, when the third rig turns up, based on, current growth and projected growth to mmet consensus forcasts. 

Hey Angus, could be the most expensive shopping trip  your wife ever makes if she makes you sell ???


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (13 September 2010)

I see it breifly hit $1.18 and $1.17 for a bit. Now currently around the $1.155. On good volume too.

Here is the current buy/sell depth totals.:

52 buyers for 1,063,504 units
26 sellers for 462,250 units

Nice 2:1 ratio there.  Now I wish I topped up when they were $0.97 a week ago


----------



## condog (13 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Nice 2:1 ratio there.  Now I wish I topped up when they were $0.97 a week ago




Famous last words....

Im guessing it might pull back at some stage to 1.05 or 1.08 from 11.8 or 1.20, and the following week or two many will think the same thoughts.  

For my two cents, buy or top up when its low in its channel and sell or grin when its high in its channel.

Theres certainly some renewed buy pressure in the small caps accross the board, not just AUT.

That buy side just keeps filling though. No trades in last 10 min or so, but buy side up 150,000... nice to see such acqusition. Could be the managed funds from the ASX300, buy high and sell low, where the returns go , nobody knows.


----------



## adobee (13 September 2010)

didnt sell out of AUT today but cant help thinking should be moving out at this high and back in to EKA till AUT drops back a bit again..


----------



## prgudula (13 September 2010)

latest update from au.stoxline
http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis


----------



## condog (13 September 2010)

adobee said:


> didnt sell out of AUT today but cant help thinking should be moving out at this high and back in to EKA till AUT drops back a bit again..




There will be plenty more new highs, and swaps, i wouldnt worry too much. Interesting im guessing your trading for petty cash or minimal wages, as on this one the cap gains tax is a killer for anyone whos stayed in and now the 12 months is the primary target.


----------



## condog (13 September 2010)

This wont hurt AUT's week either

*Hedge Fund Oil Bulls Return on Recovery Signs: Energy Markets*
September 13, 2010, 3:46 AM EDT

Open interest in crude futures, the total number of contracts that have not been closed, liquidated or delivered, rose to 1.35 million on Sept. 3, the highest number since June. More than 1 million contracts changed hands on Sept. 10, the first time since May that volume topped 1 million.

“The open interest is much higher this week, which implies that the rally probably has legs,” Khan said.

Traders may not be as bullish on oil prices as the net position indicates, said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

“The money managers were net buyers but they did it by covering shorts,” Evans said. Hedge funds may have been buying back wagers that prices would fall before the three-day weekend and the Sept. 6 U.S. Labor Day holiday, he said.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-return-on-recovery-signs-energy-markets.html

*China's Economy Shows Uptick *

BEIJING—China's major economic indicators picked up in August after slowing for several months, data issued over the weekend show, an unexpected rebound that could help prospects for global growth.

Industrial production, a major gauge of overall activity in China's manufacturing-driven economy, was up 13.9% from a year earlier in August, accelerating from 13.4% growth in July. The figure was well above market expectations, and reversed—at least for the moment—recent months' gradual slowdown from the 20.7% pace of the beginning of the year.

The positive news from China contrasts with the loss of momentum in other major economies.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (13 September 2010)

condog said:


> There will be plenty more new highs, and swaps, i wouldnt worry too much. Interesting im guessing your trading for petty cash or minimal wages, as on this one the cap gains tax is a killer for anyone whos stayed in and now the 12 months is the primary target.





Yes, I'd imagine most of us have an income of over 80k so if you sell out now you lose a heap. You're better off selling after a year even if the SP drops to around $1.10 < .


----------



## trader8888 (13 September 2010)

HAHA 80k a year, not for me im a 4th year frigie apprentice lucky to get about 30k a year. but im only 19 so i guess thats alright. Agree though im sticking out the year to save on the capital gains tax. 

Chart looks good MACD just crossed over - sign of a buy, could break the upper bollinger band tomorrow, and break out again. Oil up, US futures up as well, all pointing to a very good day tomorrow.


----------



## jancha (13 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Yes, I'd imagine most of us have an income of over 80k so if you sell out now you lose a heap. You're better off selling after a year even if the SP drops to around $1.10 < .




Depends on weather you day trade otherwise it doesn't matter how long you hold it you still pay the capital gains.


----------



## trader8888 (13 September 2010)

After 1 year of holding the stock you pay cap gains on 50% of your profit, thats what ive been told anyway.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 September 2010)

see your accountants.

some of us bogan swing traders are classed as "traders" for tax purposes and do not care about  waiting a year to qualify to still pay more tax than we do as "traders"


----------



## nioka (13 September 2010)

trader8888 said:


> After 1 year of holding the stock you pay cap gains on 50% of your profit, thats what ive been told anyway.




Wrong. Suggest a call to the tax office to get the right tax percentages. Then it depends on whether or not you are a trader or an investor. Tax is not a simple item.


----------



## Kremmen (14 September 2010)

nioka said:


> Wrong. Suggest a call to the tax office to get the right tax percentages. Then it depends on whether or not you are a trader or an investor. Tax is not a simple item.




"Wrong" is a rather harsh and not very useful response. He's right for standard non-traders. (And most traders probably know who they are and know how their tax works.)


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

On a much better note, futures up strongly again. 

DJIA up 94

But not so good unless your traveling or spending lots, the Aussie battler is 94c, which reduces AUT's profit margins when converted back into AUD.

Oils up, China sounds good, the US is looking more like a recovery then double dip (in the news headlines at least), the Aussie economy is powering towards full employment. The buy sell depths look great and we closed near our new high.


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

Something to ponder. What will be the effect of the impending cash flow position, when it starts flowing, and what will be the effect of the third rig and full time frac crew arriving in Jan. Couple that with this sudden change in sentiment, and what looks like the 3rd wave of an elliot wave ???

My opinion is cash flow should see us trading more towards the upper of our band, if not, possibly a new trend. Then the third rig should imo change trend again to a steeper growth curve. all other factors roughly equal of course. So DYOR.


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

Look at the preopen shennanigans on the sell side as someones trying imo to lower the price, for a buy. Could be wrong, but it looks like manipulation.


----------



## jancha (14 September 2010)

condog said:


> Look at the preopen shennanigans on the sell side as someones trying imo to lower the price, for a buy. Could be wrong, but it looks like manipulation.
> 
> View attachment 38850




You cant be serious about an opening sell at $1.10 with a volume of 14,000 as manipulation.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (14 September 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> see your accountants.
> 
> some of us bogan swing traders are classed as "traders" for tax purposes and do not care about  waiting a year to qualify to still pay more tax than we do as "traders"




When does one qualify as a trader rather than an investor??? Seems to me if I worked for more than 50% of my income im still an investor not a trader?


----------



## adobee (14 September 2010)

would this just be someone who wants to be at the top of the que ?
I dont think 15k is enough to manipulate the price..


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

jancha said:


> You cant be serious about an opening sell at $1.10 with a volume of 14,000 as manipulation.




jancha you cant be serious that you thought i meant the 14,000 surely - kidding around

i didnt think it needed spelling out

796
349
700


Im not saying it was a successful attempt, but imo looked like an attempt. its no big deal really. Just found it interesting to see on what looks like a descent support and trend someone seemed to be trying to fill the gaps in an attempt to lower the price on open. ??

Personally i think the material in the two posts above it is far more worthy of discussion....


----------



## jancha (14 September 2010)

condog said:


> jancha you cant be serious that you thought i meant the 14,000 surely - kidding around
> 
> i didnt think it needed spelling out
> 
> ...




Lol One of the two above posts is about your uninteresting observation in this mornings opening.
Most of your information on AUT is worthy of reading so keep it real.


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

jancha said:


> Lol One of the two above posts is about your uninteresting observation in this mornings opening.
> Most of your information on AUT is worthy of reading so keep it real.




Janch youd be more then welcome to try and contribute rather then look for misgivings...if my dribble is uninteresting


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

Heres another uninteresting observation. Well i thought its worthy anyway lol... im just ribbing you janch so ignore it. 

Big Volume today, but what worries me is some of the trades going through. Im hoping they are merely ASX300 funds grabbing thier chunks.


5 Trades over 50,000, with one at 298,000 and one at 114,500. 

Add to this list another 50,000 and a 34,000 a 13, and 11 and 2 lots of 15 in the after trade.

got to say i watch these course of trades reasoanbly regularly and this is uncharacteristicly big chunks. Like i said , i hope its simply some funds buying up.

We start to see too many big chunks going through like that i think we would have to be watching for a significant shareholder declaration. Hope thats all it is, the last thing we want is predators, when theres so much value yet to be unlocked.


----------



## condog (14 September 2010)

Well worth a read for anyone wondering why they are, or why they should retain part or all of thier AUT holdings. 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/224847-4-reasons-to-be-long-oil-and-nothing-else


----------



## nunthewiser (14 September 2010)

FWIW

i have left AUT trade today.

I will re-enter later.

intresting chat about volumes and spooky manipulation in here 

John Kendall , Go see your accountant.....I am not qualified to give you advice on what status one should class themselves in the ATO,s eyes , your situation is different to mine.......   rather intresting what can be learned if one takes the time to research for themselves.

have a lovely day


----------



## nioka (14 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> When does one qualify as a trader rather than an investor??? Seems to me if I worked for more than 50% of my income im still an investor not a trader?




It's not as simple as that. Get a ruling from the tax office before they make a decision for you that you may not have allowed for. This is a very complicated area that I have found not to be completely understood by some accountants.


----------



## radioham6 (14 September 2010)

Just interested in comments here. 
We all know what happened to ADI and the take over.... 
any chance of AUT going down the same path?


----------



## condog (15 September 2010)

In the US this week there are 3 important news items re the recovery. 

In the morning we wake to their Retail Sales figures, tomorrow their industrial production figures are released and friday their CPI numbers come out. All important data that will give us a good picture of what  their next employment figures might look like and whether they are in early low growth or trouble. 

This is critical data for AUt as imo AUT future is definitely pegged to the state of the US economy.

They also have jobless claims and consumer confidence numbers on thu and friday.


----------



## condog (15 September 2010)

Just did a search to see if Retail figures are out yet.


Retail Sales
Released on 9/14/2010 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2010
Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change	0.3 %	0.1 % to 0.5 %	0.4 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change	0.4 %	0.2 % to 0.6 %	0.6 %
Highlights
Retail sales topped expectations for August with components more positive than not. Overall retail sales in August continued to improve, gaining 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent rebound in July. The latest number topped the median forecast for a 0.3 percent advance. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.6 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in July. Analysts had projected a 0.4 percent rise for the ex-auto number. Sales excluding autos and gasoline jumped 0.5 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in July. Today's report shows that consumers are still spending. The August numbers are a little better than expected but still a moderate pace. For those wondering if the boost was related to back to school spending, the numbers are seasonally adjusted and largely take that factor into account.

The rebound in July was led by a 1.9 percent gain in gasoline station sales with food & beverages up 1.3 percent and clothing up 1.2 percent. Also showing increases were health & personal care, sporting goods & hobby stores, general merchandise, nonstore retailers, and food services & drinking places.

Weakness was led by a 1.1 percent fall in electronics & appliances and a 0.9 percent decline in miscellaneous stores. Motor vehicle & parts dealers decreased 0.7 percent while furniture & home furnishings slipped 0.5 percent. Building materials and garden equipment sales were flat.

Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in August slowed to 3.6 percent from 5.4 percent the month before. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate slipped to 4.8 percent from 5.0 percent in July. 

Today's report adds ammunition to the argument that there will be no double dip. A consumer sector that is posting moderate gains in spending will likely support continued modest growth in the recovery. It's certainly not gangbusters, but the news is welcome relief for those worried about the economy becoming too sluggish or turning negative again.


----------



## condog (15 September 2010)

Hilcorp have lodged a new Well application called  "Franke Unit" been lodged on TRRC.


----------



## condog (15 September 2010)

Looks like could be set for a new high this afternoon. 1.17 at present. See what transpires, a bit of risk apetite developing again amongst the troops. Not that id call it risky, right now id probably say Wesfarmers or Woolworths is more risk. Why due to the iminent invasion of US retailers. Costco, Aldi here already, when will Walmart arrive.


----------



## subasurf (15 September 2010)

Well I hoped out of AUT today at $1.16
If it keeps going then fine, but if it drops down like it did recently I'll be hoping back in. 

Was a fun ride while it lasted though.


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

*US Retail Sales Data*
Sales at U.S. retailers rose in August for a second consecutive month, easing concern the world’s biggest economy will stumble in the second half of the year. Sales gained 0.4 percent last month, more than the 0.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. from Bloomberg.com

*US Manufacturing  Data*
Industrial output rose 0.2 percent after a 0.6 percent gain in July that was smaller than previously estimated, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today.  from Bloomberg.com


*US Jobless Claims  Data*
Out tommorrow.

Albiet dissapointing results in my opinion, they still show growth, rather then recession characteristics. Probably strong enough to see some more slight gains and week enough to see lots of profit taking on any rallies. Certainly not enough to drive the price of oil imo. Oil slipped about $1.40 on the news.


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

The open looks good and the buy sell balance looks worse then it is, theres a lot of buys and sells on there that are no where near the money. 

Sitting nicely in its channel, certainly no the top, but near its resistance  area, my guess is a new high this morning and settling back down later in the day. Yesterday looks a little double topish.



On the closer view



Fundamentally imo at value to slightly under value. Hartleys Target 1.32, Euroz 1.53




The moving averages are indicating quiet a lot of strenght.


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

New High and i got a feeling it aint the last 
:dance::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::dance:


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

Theres some pretty serious buying happening of late in some big parcels. AUT up pumping out new highs on fantastic volume. These are just the 10K plus parcels. including a $183K parcel.

Time	Price	Volume	Value
11:22:45 AM	1.22	150000	183000
11:10:25 AM	1.2	48323	57987.6
11:11:03 AM	1.2	48177	57812.4
10:43:23 AM	1.185	47382	56147.67
10:03:11 AM	1.18	40000	47200
10:21:27 AM	1.18	25000	29500
10:29:16 AM	1.18	21909	25852.62
10:21:43 AM	1.18	20755	24490.9
10:07:28 AM	1.185	20000	23700
10:43:14 AM	1.18	20000	23600
10:42:26 AM	1.175	20000	23500
11:10:16 AM	1.195	18000	21510
10:00:04 AM	1.18	18000	21240
11:10:16 AM	1.195	15950	19060.25
11:10:25 AM	1.2	15000	18000
10:28:28 AM	1.18	15245	17989.1
10:22:08 AM	1.18	15000	17700
10:00:04 AM	1.18	15000	17700
11:10:16 AM	1.2	14343	17211.6
10:00:04 AM	1.18	13670	16130.6
10:28:28 AM	1.18	13450	15871
10:36:17 AM	1.17	12834	15015.78
10:09:20 AM	1.185	11937	14145.35
10:42:53 AM	1.18	10359	12223.62
11:26:09 AM	1.215	10000	12150
11:26:09 AM	1.215	10000	12150
10:18:15 AM	1.185	10000	11850
10:14:28 AM	1.185	10000	11850
10:42:47 AM	1.175	10000	11750


----------



## Slipperz (16 September 2010)

lol a banana day hey condog!

AUT has been showing some good momentum of recent well done!

I'm on the sidelines a bit green with envy at all the AUT green whilst getting smashed over at SSN.


----------



## AngusSmart (16 September 2010)

Whats SSN like? surely my portfolio could do with less ****ty gold and moar OIL..

jump back in Aut when we get back down near $1.15.. should get another leg up..


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 September 2010)

On a personal note. Just sold my AUT for the profit.

10,000 parcel. Bought at $0.82 and sold all at $1.22.

Awesome $4,000 profit. Will be waiting around in the mid teens to hopefully buy back in! 

Gotta thank condog for getting me interested in the stock and for all the updates mate. Thanks again!


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> On a personal note. Just sold my AUT for the profit.
> 
> 10,000 parcel. Bought at $0.82 and sold all at $1.22.
> 
> ...




Well done guys, lots of people making lots of money on this one and on SEA. SSN should go, its undervalued in my opinion. That Goshen sale was worth at least 4c. 

Big smiles on everyones faces today.


----------



## AngusSmart (16 September 2010)

condog said:


> Well done guys, lots of people making lots of money on this one and on SEA. SSN should go, its undervalued in my opinion. That Goshen sale was worth at least 4c.
> 
> Big smiles on everyones faces today.




Yes thanks to you also! if this thread and mainly the ADI thread wasnt constantly bumped up the top i would have never paid attention and kept my ****ty go no where stocks from the industry i used to work in.

i've gone well over 100% now and have a large holding too looking to get closer to 50,000 shortly on it. perhaps when it backs back down to the teen's again also.

Thanks again! holding and loving it!


----------



## prgudula (16 September 2010)

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis


----------



## noie (16 September 2010)

yes indeed, Bolly bands point to another surge

re getting back in at 1.115, i'm not sure it will get that low in the short near future.


(I do not hold AUT, i chose GGE GGP )


----------



## subasurf (16 September 2010)

Well, don't I feel like a numpty, selling off yesterday at $1.16 

Ohwell, was on a good profit so I took it. For my sakes, I hope there is a little drop and consolidation so I can hop back in in a while. I'll be out in the desert in a few weeks for a few weeks and I don't want to be worrying about my shares


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

noie said:


> yes indeed, Bolly bands point to another surge
> 
> re getting back in at 1.115, i'm not sure it will get that low in the short near future.
> 
> ...




To those whove sold out and are kicking themselves, this is not advice, but its my honest opinion. Dont fret all stocks run and pullback. The AUT has mega time and growth left in it in my opinion. Imo it really doesnt matter what price you last sold or bought etc, a stock can be overbought or oversold at anywhere on its continuum. When you next see it consolidate or pull back, bang , theres an opportunity. 

So dont fret, just watch for the opportunities.


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

noie said:


> yes indeed, Bolly bands point to another surge
> 
> re getting back in at 1.115, i'm not sure it will get that low in the short near future.
> 
> ...




Im familiar with both those and have held and traded GGP, i know why your banging your head, and i feel , your foreheads gunna get real sore if you keep watching AUT compared to them.


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

I have a freind who has a $500,000+ portfolio

He has approx 22 stocks. 

He is up $48900 on AUT with a balance of approx $82000

In total his portfolio is up $75,000 for the 12 months. 

Now its funny when assessing risk. Some people would say holding big parcels of stocks like AUT is way to risky. 

But imo that person could have made way more then his entire profit with simply buying $60,000 AUT and placing the other $400,000+ in term deposit at 7%. Earning a further $28,000 in a term deposit.  Surely thats less risk then holding 22 stock and having $500,000 + invested in the current market.???

One to ponder imo ???


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (16 September 2010)

RE: Condog, wouldn't he have made more money with less risk by just chucking the lot on AUT? ;D

Obviously in hindsight the other shares have overall underperformed, relative to the risk free bank rate and his major performer AUT. However at the time the other shares had potential, which may have not been realized as of yet. What if instead of putting 60k in AUT and the rest in the bank, he put 60k say, in TLS (lol) and the rest in the bank.

You can only make large risk free gains in the sharemarket with hindsight.


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> RE: Condog, wouldn't he have made more money with less risk by just chucking the lot on AUT? ;D
> 
> Obviously in hindsight the other shares have overall underperformed, relative to the risk free bank rate and his major performer AUT. However at the time the other shares had potential, which may have not been realized as of yet. What if instead of putting 60k in AUT and the rest in the bank, he put 60k say, in TLS (lol) and the rest in the bank.
> 
> You can only make large risk free gains in the sharemarket with hindsight.




Yeh he would have.

I definitely do not agree with your last statement. Its easy to make money on the share market 90% of the time. People just put to much effort in to being slaves to wages and consumable crap, instead of spending some real quality time on thier own finances.

My opinion was double his AUt holding, sell everything else and put it into term deposit. We will make approx $28000 of Td, $40+K on AUT original parcel, $20-$40K on new AUt parcel p.a. imo.  And hes got a hell of a lot less risk imo, as he only has $80 oddK exposed to the market.


----------



## nioka (16 September 2010)

condog said:


> I have a freind who has a $500,000+ portfolio
> 
> He has approx 22 stocks.
> 
> ...




That is not a question to answer unless you identify the other stocks. I hold well over 22 stocks and some are much better performers than AUT. eg.LYC and NTU are well past AUT for performance at this stage. EKA matches AUT for me. My best performer overall is CER.  I also have a few poor performers that I would not think of selling because of the potential for future gains. BUL, TAS and EDE for example.

I'm a fan of AUT and will hold it for a long time but it is not the only kid on the block.


----------



## WRONG'UN (16 September 2010)

I agree with you Condog - that's the way I trade, and it works for me.
I accept that in a continuing bull market, being 100% invested will/should be  profitable, but we haven't been in that situation for quite a while - and there always seems to be a train wreck at some stage!


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

Slipperz said:


> lol a banana day hey condog!
> 
> AUT has been showing some good momentum of recent well done!
> 
> I'm on the sidelines a bit green with envy at all the AUT green whilst getting smashed over at SSN.




Slipperz yee of little faith, shame on you.....

You should have known better AUT , best stock on the ASX imo. SSN definitely not picked up the value for the Goshen sale, which is wierd.

I await your rejoining of the exclusive AUT club , lol .....


----------



## condog (16 September 2010)

nioka said:


> That is not a question to answer unless you identify the other stocks. I hold well over 22 stocks and some are much better performers than AUT. eg.LYC and NTU are well past AUT for performance at this stage. EKA matches AUT for me. My best performer overall is CER.  I also have a few poor performers that I would not think of selling because of the potential for future gains. BUL, TAS and EDE for example.
> 
> I'm a fan of AUT and will hold it for a long time but it is not the only kid on the block.




Yep no doubt, but i dont know those stocks, so my opinion was really restricted to AUT and SEA. I will be investigating those mentioned by you nokia as i have a LOT of respect for what your doing.


----------



## Kremmen (17 September 2010)

nioka said:


> That is not a question to answer unless you identify the other stocks. I hold well over 22 stocks and some are much better performers than AUT. eg.LYC and NTU are well past AUT for performance at this stage. EKA matches AUT for me. My best performer overall is CER.




It's interesting to see which stocks you mention there. I hold all of those good ones except NTU. While LYC is up for me even more than AUT, I think it's higher risk and I invested less in it. LYC was pretty certain to rise sometime, but China's reduction in rare earth exports recently put a rocket under it way sooner than I'd have expected. AUT is way more advanced in its project, so I considered it a much lower risk.

Just my opinion here: Too much diversity is tedious and too much work. Almost 1/3 of my portfolio is EKA and AUT.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

Kremmen said:


> It's interesting to see which stocks you mention there. I hold all of those good ones except NTU. While LYC is up for me even more than AUT, I think it's higher risk and I invested less in it. LYC was pretty certain to rise sometime, but China's reduction in rare earth exports recently put a rocket under it way sooner than I'd have expected. AUT is way more advanced in its project, so I considered it a much lower risk.
> 
> Just my opinion here: Too much diversity is tedious and too much work. Almost 1/3 of my portfolio is EKA and AUT.




Well done guys on LYC, although $2.2B for pre development, few???? NTU wow what a graph, awesome. LYC near impossible to put a value on, looks like correcting???? . NTU looks like its temp peaked. Both from a completely niave point of view.

Tend do agree, a lot of people worsify thier holdings in the name of diversification. Risk is somewhat mitigated a lot when you know a stock and how it behave intimately.  But i totally understand and agree with why novices are told to diversify. It takes time to get the skill and knowledge to know what makes stocks tick.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

That nasty little bot is at work again. Its filling the sell side imo to make it look bigger and more spaced. You call it what you want , but for my money its market manipulation and all traders should be calling for bans on algorithmic trading platforms.

Been doing it for two days now.




27 decent trades so far looking like great volume again, 800K by 10.30 am.. These are the ones above 10K, two biggies at $100K plus so far. There appears to be some pretty serious acquisition. I wonder if Ann Stewart is finished selling yet to remodel her bathroom and kitchen?? 
Time	Price	Volume	Value
10:03:06 AM	1.265	99131	125400.72
10:33:49 AM	1.255	96350	120919.25
10:33:49 AM	1.26	27636	34821.36
10:14:01 AM	1.27	20000	25400
10:33:59 AM	1.25	16498	20622.5
10:34:09 AM	1.24	16569	20545.56
10:28:52 AM	1.26	16000	20160
10:03:06 AM	1.26	15000	18900
9:59:54 AM	1.23	14310	17601.3
10:25:11 AM	1.26	13391	16872.66
9:59:54 AM	1.23	13450	16543.5
10:00:07 AM	1.24	13000	16120
10:12:07 AM	1.28	12021	15386.88
10:34:09 AM	1.24	10450	12958
10:10:27 AM	1.28	10046	12858.88
10:10:27 AM	1.28	10000	12800
10:29:14 AM	1.26	10150	12789
10:10:27 AM	1.28	9954	12741.12
10:31:28 AM	1.265	10000	12650
10:31:05 AM	1.27	9912	12588.24
10:17:38 AM	1.255	10000	12550
9:59:54 AM	1.23	10000	12300
9:59:54 AM	1.23	9448	11621.04
10:06:18 AM	1.27	9054	11498.58
9:59:54 AM	1.23	8868	10907.64
10:33:49 AM	1.255	8537	10713.94
10:33:49 AM	1.26	8147	10265.22

Sitting at top of its channel, but imo sooner or later we are due for a rerating as risk receeds and 2011 growth gets phased into price.


----------



## noie (17 September 2010)

I though ASX has a market maker scheme does it not?, so a firm is responsible for generating liquidity and populating the bid-offer spread, in return they get minor discounts on trade cost?

Its perfectly normal, except when it is one sided.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

noie said:


> I though ASX has a market maker scheme does it not?, so a firm is responsible for generating liquidity and populating the bid-offer spread, in return they get minor discounts on trade cost?
> 
> Its perfectly normal, except when it is one sided.




Are you able to populate the buy or sell side in a fraction of a second and pull it off prior to it getting bought or sold. I think not. So is that a level playing field. Not imo, but i could be wrong. We can argue till the cows come home on this one, its not worth it. too much head space, i just hate anything that disadvantages the average punter.


----------



## nioka (17 September 2010)

Bots or no bots, something spooked AUT this morning. However regardless of the bot trading the market will sort out the price eventually. The main thing is to work out your own buy or sell price and wait for an opportunity. Dont get spooked along with the general run of price fluctuations.


----------



## Slipperz (17 September 2010)

I'm tempted to have a chomp on that order at 1.25....:

Might just wait and see how the day plays out....


----------



## Assasin (17 September 2010)

Just to throw a curve ball in the debate re diversification of portfolios. What does one do when their caught with 95% Aut 5% others. I'm still very confident in the growth Aut should realise over the next 12 months so my gut feel is to hold every one of them. Brought a good parcel at 30c and then topped up at the Cap-Raising and now just enjoying the ride. Understand that it's in-appropriate to seek advice regarding this on this thread allthough I sure am appreciative of all the information given over the past months.
My dilema is a problem I always wanted to have. Its like the cap-gains tax issue. I can't wait to have a tax problem.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

I think theres some games being played. 

Little sell volumes at critical times driving the price down then boom, as soon as good sell volumes come on low. Bang .  check out this one a minute ago at 1.25  And look at the volumes already.

Theres some major acquisition happening in my opinion.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

Assasin i sent you a PM.
But this is a dilemma lots will have if they put a fair chunk into AUT.

This is not advice, its a personal opinion. 

A financial adviser who you can sue if the advice is bad would definitely tell you to sell and take profit and diversify your portfolio, and thats definitely a good safe option that means you are unlikely to lose money and hence sue him.

I personally am in a similar position. I am not selling for a number of reasons. 

1, ive researched and watched this thing to death, and in my opinion it has plenty of growth (with risk attached to China, US, Euro defualts , terorism, drilling accidents, environmetal concerns etc) its not without risk

2. In the areas and stocks i have knowledge of i cant find anywhere better to put the money. 

3. Id lover to buy some put options but so far have not found anyone selling them

4. I have a tax problem if i sell before holding 12 months, that would cost me a lot of my profits. So thats a huge risk to my profits, that would be realised immediately upon selling.

Thats my 2c.

ITs important to understand everyone is in a different boat her, with differing personal, financial circumstances and risk tolerances. Definitely do your own research and seek expert, not just paid, but expert advice. Find a rich adviser someone who plays the same game we play and ask them what to do. The best way is to find one by word of mouth, or ring half a dozen and before committing to a consultation, ask them do they trade, how much do they have , what types of stocks etc. If they wont answer, thats ok you dont want them.  imo you want someone who knows the game and thinks like a winner, not a 2 bob textbook.


----------



## prgudula (17 September 2010)

stoxline upgraded the 6 months and 1 year targets

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

PRGudula
Screenshot below from above link. 
New targets 6month = 1.50 and 12 month 1.75
Whilst I always love targets above current sp I will be dissapointed if those targets are not surpassed well and truly.

On another note what a day for AUT, its time to bring out the :dance::dance::bananasmi::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::bananasmi:


----------



## kyrondgm (17 September 2010)

did anyone notice how much volume was traded in the last 15 minutes of the day? is this normal? at about 3.55 EST there was around 2.6m shares traded for the day, and by close 15 minutes later there was 4.8m shares traded with some massive volumes going through...what is going on? my basic knowledge of the sharemarket is that some orders are settled between 4pm-4.10pm EST but to trade so much volume in 15 minutes is truly staggering.


----------



## Sdajii (17 September 2010)

I'm only speculating, but my guess is that AUT is attracting an increasing amount of attention due to the spectacular results over the last year or so, and since its recent addition to ASX300, lots of people are taking a first look at it, seeing the last year, analysing the current situation, saying "Wow" and wanting to jump in. I think that's the explanation for the recent rally, and today being the end of the week, a large number of people who were hoping for a pull back decided to jump in at their last chance for the week, fearing the possibility of interest growing over the weekend and AUT opening higher on Monday.

Great day today! I watched the depth off and on through the day, twice I started posting here saying something along the lines of "Wow, check out the depth! Looks like we might be in for a run to $1.2x" and before I'd had a chance to post we hit it! A lot of the time there was so little on offer between the current price and $1.30, so it's no surprised we made it to $1.295 and held on to the end 

Dancing bananas indeed!  :jump: :bananasmi :bananasmi



kyrondgm said:


> did anyone notice how much volume was traded in the last 15 minutes of the day? is this normal? at about 3.55 EST there was around 2.6m shares traded for the day, and by close 15 minutes later there was 4.8m shares traded with some massive volumes going through...what is going on? my basic knowledge of the sharemarket is that some orders are settled between 4pm-4.10pm EST but to trade so much volume in 15 minutes is truly staggering.


----------



## Kremmen (17 September 2010)

Assasin said:


> What does one do when their caught with 95% Aut 5% others.




Have a big party for all your friends!! 

Seriously, here's my take on the general case: The market almost always over-reacts, in both directions. The only way you'll ever know where the top is is to hold until you reach it and sell once it starts to fall.

We are all inclined to reduce risk by taking profits, but it more often than not deprives us of more profits. (One exception: Very illiquid stocks which can fall 50% in a day.)

e.g. Some years ago I bought EWC for 4c/share. I reckoned they were worth 20-40c/share and gradually sold them in late 2006 at 20-60c. The damned things went past $1! Guess what? They are now trading at 40c. Momentum took them way past what they were "worth" and I failed to take advantage of it.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

Kremmen said:


> Have a big party for all your friends!!
> 
> Seriously, here's my take on the general case: The market almost always over-reacts, in both directions. The only way you'll ever know where the top is is to hold until you reach it and sell once it starts to fall.
> 
> We are all inclined to reduce risk by taking profits, but it more often than not deprives us of more profits. (One exception: Very illiquid stocks which can fall 50% in a day.)




Kremmen wise words indeed. I would add, make sure you take into account your CGT position before selling. For example if you bought in with $20,000 at 30c, you would now have approx 86000 made up of $20000 capital and $66000 capital gain. If your in the 30% and not a trader you would pay 30% CGT on the sale of $66000 assuming you sold the lot. This equates to $19800 CGTax. 

Hence the sp would have to fall to 99.3 c for you to rebuy and be ahead. 

Sometimes profits disappear, but paying tax is sometimes a way to gaurauntee money dissapears.


----------



## Slipperz (17 September 2010)

Something is definitely up.

I'm thinking a takeover might be brewing.

Crosstrade went through afterhours at 6.13pm for 1.3 million


Actually more like 1.6 million


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

Slipperz said:


> Something is definitely up.
> 
> I'm thinking a takeover might be brewing.
> 
> ...




My god i hope your wrong, theres way too much growth left in this to let some predator , take a cheap swipe at it. . 1.3 million imo is more like a fund. But coupled with the huge volume of the last week is big volume. Certainly not enough for a take over. 

Theres definitely some stiff buying pressure. who ever they have been doing preso's to its working. It was a great presentation, there best yet, imo instilling huge confidence in what they are up to. 

What a fantastic result today was for all the AUT loyal holders. To the rest, sucked in, lol, only kidding.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (17 September 2010)

Awww why the heck did I sell out at 1.22  Sorry guys but fingers crossed there is some profit taking next week so a certain someone can jump back in!


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (17 September 2010)

Fingers crossed it goes down to your purchase price John, then soars all the way back to where it is now, and continues normally. :


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Awww why the heck did I sell out at 1.22  Sorry guys but fingers crossed there is some profit taking next week so a certain someone can jump back in!




John this is not advice, merely opinion. But if i was in your situation i wouldnt focus on what price i sold at. Id simply look for a pull back that presented as value and jump in. You do your own thing and seek advice, but its silly to focus on price imo.

Normally id say hey this is way overbought but me thiks we have possibly some new found demand and some new found resiliance to selling by holders and traders.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

*MUMBAI (Commodity Online): India’s largest private sector energy firm, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) (BOM:500325), has started talks for expanding its presence in the US shale gas fields. *

The company is reported to be advanced with Chesapeake Energy Corp to take stake in Eagle Ford shale gas field in Texas. 

Reliance has already invested $3.44 billion (Rs.15,900 crore) in the past five months to purchase three shale gas fields that have the potential to release 25.4 trillion cu. ft (tcf) of natural gas trapped in rock. 

According to the media reports, the financial terms of the deal have not yet been finalised and Reliance may form a joint venture with Chesapeake to develop the asset. 

On successful closing of the deal, this will be Reliance’s fourth shale field buy. 

http://www.commodityonline.com/comm...ale-gas-acquisition-2010-09-17-31829-3-1.html

*Murphy Oil Enters Pact with Kainaiwa Resources for N. American Resource Acreage*

Murphy Oil Corp. announced that its subsidiary, Murphy Oil Company, has entered into an agreement with Kainaiwa Resources, Inc., a corporation owned by the Blood Tribe First Nation to acquire 202 sections (129,280 acres) of prospective oil and gas properties located within the Blood Tribe Reserve in southern Alberta. 

In a release on Sept. 9, Murphy Oil said the lease agreement will give it drilling rights on the property for five years with a minimum of 16 wells to be drilled during this time. 

David Wood, Murphy Oil Corp. President and Chief Executive Officer, said: "We are very pleased to add a fourth resource play in North America to complement our existing acreage in Seal Lake, Montney and Eagle Ford." 

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/...-for-n-american-resource-acreage-1175011.html

*Insurance Sales Post First Gain Since 2007 on Higher Rates, U.S. Recovery
By Kelly Bit - Sep 17, 2010*
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-since-2007-on-higher-rates-u-s-recovery.html
*
Banks Are Impeding U.S. Recovery
Oxford Analytica, 09.17.10, 06:00 AM EDT *

http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/16/re...-oxford-analytica.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop

*Peak oil and climate must be tackled in tandem  
Sydney Morning Herald - ‎21 hours ago‎*
Acting on the looming oil crisis could give politicians the political cover they need to move on global warming. PEAK oil and climate change are on parallel ... Respected Oil Analyst Forecasts Peak Oil by 2017  
OilPrice.com - Robert Rapier - ‎Sep 15, 2010‎
His prediction is not so remarkable, as is where he made his prediction. The prediction was in Forbes, which has often scoffed at the notion of a near-term ...  


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Respected-Oil-Analyst-Forecasts-Peak-Oil-by-2017.html

*Goldman’s Cohen Says Double Dip Recession ‘Extremely Unlikely’
September 16, 2010, 5:59 PM EDT*
 More From Businessweek
Wall Street Trading Is Still a Black Box 
Leighton Shortlists Two to Succeed CEO King, Australian Says 
U.S. Economy: Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Decline 
MPAA, Film Workers Ask U.S. to Bar Box-Office Futures (Update1) 
AWB, BHP, Graincorp, Hastings, Santos: Australian Stock Preview 
Story Tools
e-mail this story print this story add to Business Exchange By Inyoung Hwang

*Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said today that the U.S. economy will experience a period of slow growth, not another recession.*

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...double-dip-recession-extremely-unlikely-.html


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

Sdajii said:


> I'm only speculating, but my guess is that AUT is attracting an increasing amount of attention due to the spectacular results over the last year or so, and since its recent addition to ASX300, lots of people are taking a first look at it, seeing the last year, analysing the current situation, saying "Wow" and wanting to jump in. I think that's the explanation for the recent rally, and today being the end of the week, a large number of people who were hoping for a pull back decided to jump in at their last chance for the week, fearing the possibility of interest growing over the weekend and AUT opening higher on Monday.
> 
> Great day today! I watched the depth off and on through the day, twice I started posting here saying something along the lines of "Wow, check out the depth! Looks like we might be in for a run to $1.2x" and before I'd had a chance to post we hit it! A lot of the time there was so little on offer between the current price and $1.30, so it's no surprised we made it to $1.295 and held on to the end
> 
> Dancing bananas indeed!  :jump: :bananasmi :bananasmi




Damn right Sadjii, it was demand demand demand, and other then a few peanuts selling for whatever reason, there was incredible discipline from all holders. Im sure we will have our inevitable pullbacks, but if all else stays roughly equal this thing has many more legs imo.  Definitely a day for dancing banannas


----------



## 5haretrader (17 September 2010)

What an interesting day. On the back of this week's impressive gains, I was planning to take some profits this afternoon. Just minutes after my order went through at $1.29, things went absolute bananas with AUT. I smell something is up here. On HotCopper i thought it could be a sub holder moving shares around, but on second thoughts there could be a sneaky ADI-like lowball offer on the cards here. I hope not for holders sake because this stock is a gem.

Monday will be interesting, to say the least!!


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> What an interesting day. On the back of this week's impressive gains, I was planning to take some profits this afternoon. Just minutes after my order went through at $1.29, things went absolute bananas with AUT. I smell something is up here. On HotCopper i thought it could be a sub holder moving shares around, but on second thoughts there could be a sneaky ADI-like lowball offer on the cards here. I hope not for holders sake because this stock is a gem.
> 
> Monday will be interesting, to say the least!!




I hope not. I personally think 1.3 million is big enought to be a fund, but even combined with the volumes of all this week its not enough for a TO, thank god. A significna tholder announcment would have had to ahave been issued and it hasnt. 

I realistically think its a combination of ASX300 funds and renewed intrest from whoever they have been presenting to this week. 

Combine that with the gradual exit of traders post CR and post SPP and we now are back to limmited slleres and heards of buyers like the good old days of pre CR.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

What will the next few months bring ???

We know the target is between 1.32 and 1.53, right now its looking like exceeding that. I have it pegged at 1.59. 

What will the future bring. Critics have bagged it since 50 odd cents. Its proved them wrong. 1.50 is looking closer and closer and easier every single week imo.

We have to be getting very close to a Hartleys upgrade, and a Euroz upgrade can only be a matter of a week or two away imo. Theres been a lot happened in terms of de risking and improving technology since they bought those targets out several months ago.

*Incidentily todays volume was over 5 million a new record by double i think. *

Look at the buy sell imbalance for monday. Certainly a tight holding again by the looks of it.





Futures up in early trade.


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

*German Military Not Sticking Its Head in the Sand*

To start off, for those of you unfamiliar with the term, here is a concise explanation of peak oil from Investopedia:

Because oil is a non-replenishing resource, there is a limit to how much the world can extract and refine. Peak oil is the day that oil production reaches a maximum and will subsequently begin to decline until full depletion is ultimately reached.

Why is Peak Oil a Big Deal?

The reason peak oil is such a big deal, of course, is that society as it is built today relies on oil for many of its basic needs, as well as a great number of its non-essentials. Even though 71% of oil use is for transportation in the US, oil is also used in the production of fertilizers, shoes, some medicines, carpets and rugs, paint, detergent, canned food, makeup, nail polish, candles, lipstick, plastic, and more.

Oil is actually used, either directly or indirectly, in 95% of our industrial goods.

Governments generally avoid bringing this term up, probably because of the great threats we face from peak oil and the potential public backlash to curtailing our use of oil. This makes the simple existence of this German military think tank’s new report a bit shocking, even before you read the dramatic potential future the report paints.

The think tank that conducted the report is the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, “a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military,” according to SPIEGEL ONLINE.

The military report doesn’t try to sugar-coat the scale of the issues, and is actually quite dramatic in discussing them. As Stefan Schultz of SPIEGEL ONLINE writes:

The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets” and of serious political and economic crises.

The report has been confirmed as authentic, but, apparently, it isn’t finished or approved for public sharing yet, and it is doubtful that the German military or German government will release it without cutting and editing some of the dramatic statements and predictions.

The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies.

The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil.

Peak oil concern is sneaking out of the back rooms of other world-leading governments as well. The UK Energy Minister held a “Peak Oil Summit” earlier this year, for example. But this report may contain the most forthcoming statements of any major government on the topic and risks of peak oil.

Main Findings of Leaked Peak Oil Report

*The report concluded that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010* and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.” This fits the predictions of other scientists’ studying peak oil, many of whom say that peak oil has already passed or will do so within year.

Some of the problems expected to result from peak oil include:

•Oil-rich countries, some of which are quite unstable and unfriendly to the United States, will gain more and more international power (for a relatively short time);
•Market failures are expected to occur and economies could even collapse;
•Due to the highly interlinked nature of the global economy and global society today, these crises wherever they occur would create a strong ripple effect around the world — it is unlikely that any nation would be unaffected by such crises.
•The German report even brings up the possibility that democracy itself will collapse.
With “Peak Coal” also perhaps happening as early as 2025, these concerns only get amplified if we don’t make a quick transformation to a clean energy economy.

For more information from the report and further discussion on this topic, check out SPIEGEL ONLINE story, “‘Peak Oil’ and the German Government: Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis.”

Peak oil” is a term that has hardly reached into the mainstream media. *Yet, a new leaked report by a German military think tank says world-changing peak oil may be this year.*



http://cleantechnica.com/2010/09/17/peak-oil-this-year-leaked-german-military-report-says/2/


----------



## condog (17 September 2010)

*Friday, September 17, 2010 - 06:58 *

*OECD Guerria:Economy Slowed More Than Expected, No Double Dip*

VIENNA (MNI) - The economic recovery slowed more than expected at the start of the second half but a double-dip recession remains unlikely, OECD secretary general Angel Gurria said on Friday. 

http://imarketnews.com/node/19421


----------



## 5haretrader (17 September 2010)

Despite the fact that I have lightened my holding in AUT I'll still follow the stock very closely. I like the company's future prospects and would not rule out buying back in if this one retraced back a bit.

I have absolutely no clue what was going on in the last 15 minutes of trading today, but it sure as hell wasn't normal. You can be boring about it and say that for everyone that bought, there was also a seller. But if you dwell deeper into it though, AUT has not had 6million shares traded before today, EVER! In the lead up to the ADI takeover bid, the average volume was around 400-500k shares per day. Then, about a week before the on market takeover offer, the average volume spiked heavily into 1.5M share per day mark. AUT has seen a similar thing happen today where the day's volume was so far out of the norm it isn't funny. Something is up...

On the other hand, if this is all just a sub holding switchover, then it will probably just be business as usual on Monday. That said, if things return to normal next week, the stock is quite overbought on the stochastics and I suspect a retrace may be on the cards. Going by AUTs form this tear, it should put in a higher low and continue to rally after that. I see $1.50 by year's end, easily.


----------



## WRONG'UN (18 September 2010)

Ratio with EKA - update
.........................................................................................


----------



## condog (18 September 2010)

Nice graph courtesy of Tilly dog from elsewhere. Friday had extremely big volumes, a great sign for AUT.


----------



## condog (18 September 2010)

Recieved this. Its not AUT specific but its highly related to the interest of all us AUT punters. Its from the "Oil and Gas Investment Bulletin - by Keith Schaeffer"
*
10x Bigger than the Bakken*
The Paris Basin shale oil play in France has the potential to be ten times the size of the Bakken play in North America, and some high profile exploration is beginning soon.
Estimates range from just a few to many tens of billions of barrels of oil in the Paris Basin.  Much like the North American shale plays, these formations have been drilled through many times – there are over 1000 wells drilled into the Basin – so exploration risk is low.  It’s completion risk – how to best unlock the oil from the rock – that is the main risk.
So there is a lot of data, which makes exploration much less risky.  It also means that local residents are used to having oil wells drilled in the region – unlike New York State .

Activity by explorers in this part of France has been growing, and is now hitting a fever pitch.  A huge land race is underway, with applications for more than 1.6 million acres pending approval for several companies, including Toreador Resources (TRGL-NASD) in the US, Vermillion Energy (VET.UN-TSX) and Realm Energy (RLM-TSXv) in Canada.
Exploration – real drilling - in the Paris Basin will ramp up this fall.  Toreador Resources Corporation is the purest play. In May they announced an exploration deal with Hess Corporation (HES-NYSE) that could be worth as much as $265 million for 50% of Toreador’s 600,000 acres in the play.  They spud their first well into the play in Q4 2010. It will be one of the most watched wells in the world.
Canada’s Vermilion Energy has also acquired acreage in the play and begun exploration activities.  Vermilion is already recognized as France’s largest oil producer.
Craig Steinke, Executive Chairman for Realm Energy, says “The Paris Basin is arguably the most exciting shale play in Europe right now.  We expect to acquire a good-sized position in this play.”
As I wrote about earlier, many of the European shale gas plays are being bought up by the majors, there are intermediate and junior producers in the game, which should keep news flow on the play steady for retail investors.
When this happened in North America, there was huge wealth creation as the juniors and intermediates were small enough that their stocks could benefit from a productive land position.
Like the big North American shale oil plays that enriched investors, the Paris Basin has big reserve potential, good existing well data, and a local population that’s familiar with drilling.
Hopefully, history will repeat itself.
*Keith Schaefer owns  Toreador

Disc i condog, hold none of thes and have no interest or relationship other then a reader of this article.


----------



## mir (18 September 2010)

what a week for AUT this talk of T/O won't have much chance of flying at these prices with management holding 10%, one firm in control of about 35%. one guy who holds 8m+ shares ,you would have more chance pulling his teeth out than selling a share & that goes for many of us. 
lets hope for more of the same.


----------



## condog (18 September 2010)

Looking at those buy sell spreads with $1M+ buys and 158K sells and very spread out sells you got to be thinking next week is looking amazing.


*Thats almost a 7:1 Ratio*

 The traders seem to have been depleted partially at least and we are back imo to the tightly held days similar to early 2010. 

Honestly why would you sell???

This is looking like our possible re rating when the big guys decided enough risk has been abated to grab some??

Definitiely a big change in the wind looking at the numbers.
:dance::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::dance::dance::bananasmi::dance:


----------



## Kremmen (19 September 2010)

I have to wonder what the story is with the stupid $100 sell order on there. Most brokers wouldn't let you place an order that's that far out of market.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (19 September 2010)

Hey Kremmen, perhaps we'll see a "Fat finger" error and a buy order for 10 million and the market price for AUT at 100 dollars. Would be interesting to see the bots reactions to it and the speed ticket the ASX has to issue. 9000% up in a day. 

(Obviously not expecting this to happen, but just imagine if it did...)


----------



## condog (19 September 2010)

Kremmen said:


> I have to wonder what the story is with the stupid $100 sell order on there. Most brokers wouldn't let you place an order that's that far out of market.




I agree, however, how brilliant if some buyer simply presses by x quantity on market.  He will be laughing at us fools.


----------



## condog (19 September 2010)

Im asking everyone a favour here, can you put out the feelers and see if you can find a broker who si selling put options on AUT.


----------



## condog (19 September 2010)

They say a pictures worth a thousand words.
In this case i think its worth a million.

These rediculous headlines about $40 oil due to high inventories. 

Well take a look at this. In fact i dont even think i will spell it ou other then to say China India, and peak oil fears, do you really think a 10% rise in inventories is unwarranted.  


from:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/225381-oil-inventories-decline-but-still-well-above-average

Then take a read of this. http://www.countercurrents.org/auzanneau180910.htm 
No imo its unlikely to occur this year due to limited US growth, but imo it holds some serious credence. And even the fear and speculation of peak oil is likely to drive energy prices in the forseable future, till transportation alternatives are derived.


----------



## jancha (19 September 2010)

condog said:


> Janch youd be more then welcome to try and contribute rather then look for misgivings...if my dribble is uninteresting




Didn't say it was dibble condog more speculative on those volumes.
As i said keep it real otherwise it's just ramping.
As it has turned out Aut has jumped in leaps and bounds.
Happy for all holders with that as i was one until recently. bought in at .49c Sold at $1.23 Gone into EKA now as i think better value in the short term for now.
As far as contributing to the AUT thread?
Well anyone can paste information from webs sites or charts ect. but you're doing such a GREAT job i dont need to. Just an observer buddy and keeping it real.
Good luck to all asf members that have followed ADi AUT EKA TXN. 
All looking positive.


----------



## condog (20 September 2010)

We dont have much of a lead from wall street for this morning, crude was down slightly. 

ASX has been in an cleaned up the volume , got rid of the $100 offer as well. 
Volumes a bit more subdued with 5:1, still representing bullishness. Some traders imo will flood when they see weakness, but imo they are being largely dwindled out by this renewed buying pressure, which lapped up a lot of shares last week.


----------



## condog (20 September 2010)

9.00 still looking fantastic imo. Buy sell ratio still roughly 5:1, no onslaught of profit takers and still plenty of demand. The run has to end sooner or later, but seems good this morning n face value".  I wouldnt be running in to buy just now, but it seems plenty are.


----------



## martyfar (20 September 2010)

Just general question for anyone with any info (or inkling)  ....  have they commenced the frac on the KOW  ??? and or Luna ??? 

if the fracs have commenced .... any timeframe on the results ???   if I recall correctly the Kow was at TD 5/8/10    hmmmmm    thats more than 6 weeks ago 

cheers


----------



## condog (20 September 2010)

martyfar said:


> Just general question for anyone with any info (or inkling)  ....  have they commenced the frac on the KOW  ??? and or Luna ???
> 
> if the fracs have commenced .... any timeframe on the results ???   if I recall correctly the Kow was at TD 5/8/10    hmmmmm    thats more than 6 weeks ago
> 
> cheers




Not sure exactly, we should get an update this week. Expecting Kowalick mid to late sept completion, and Luna in early to mid oct. Got to rememebr frac completions are a bit slower and hence the news flow a lot slower since they are trialing the 3 stage fraccing.

Well what a day. I didnt get to see a minute, but a 3c pull back off a new high is staggering level of confidence, given the mini bull run and strong acqusition we have just had. 

The buy sell ratios are still good and indicating plenty of underlying demand, relative to hacing such a great run up.


----------



## condog (20 September 2010)

as an investor in oil, this is an extremely comforting read from Bloomberg.com today


> Four months after a European Union- led bailout, Germany’s biggest bond dealers say the worst is over for the region’s most-indebted nations.
> 
> Yields on government bonds of Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal will fall to within 2.2 percentage points of benchmark German bunds on average in the next two years from 4.61 percentage points last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 15 banks that trade directly with Germany’s debt agency. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank by market value, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA advise buying securities sold by Greece.




Now it means we primarliy need to keep an eye on US growth and China which last week looked good.


----------



## prgudula (21 September 2010)

stoxline updated details....as on 21-Sep-2010

 Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

AUT.AX has closed below upper band by 7.4%. Bollinger Bands are 99.9% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to AUT.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 3 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

Still lloks ok with approx 5:1 ratio after removing the tree shaker .

Best sign is the sell side while rising slightly, hasnt filled. Irrespective of what happens price wise, its really imo looking like the old days where we where rediculously tightly held. Bad side is it reduces liquidity, good side is anyone who wants it has to compete like an auction.



Its high in its band, its just snapped back through the top bollinger, normally id say, hey small correction time, but the sell side is singing a different tune. And i think after last weeks gain everyone is more scared of being out of AUT then in it. Im still expecting a minor consolidation.


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

Well with AUT looking on value at $351mcap and drilling and fraccing progressing far faster then anticipated in late 2009. One has to look back at the following two slides and say, even us optimistic amatuers under estimated the abilty of AUT managment to achieve these targets.

But they are looking more and more like they may one day be far too conservative???

Personally and these are only my personal targets for me. Not advice. But i have it pegged at $1.59 for Jan 1 2011 and $3.87 for Jan 2012, based on $75 oil prices then and 3.75 gas.

Just out of interest sake if we did get a US recovery and China India demand and popped $100 oil again then wed be looking at $6.97 in 2012. Please note thats an optimistic target, please dont base any foolish decisions on it. But its not impossible. Ive only used averages of 500boepd and 2mmcfg.


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

Got an email from an ASF poster wanting to know what my spreadsheet projected for $50 oil and $3 gas if things turned bad. Well this is only my opinion so dont rely on it whatever you do. But i have it at $1.08 for jan 1 2011 and $2.07 for Jan 2012


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

Pretty rosy headlines, hoepfully we will wake to more after the Fed comments more. Im not so sure, but i do hope so.


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

See what the morning brings but if these headlines are correct combined with official US recovery, i think we will be extremely happy AUT investors in the near future.


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

Its almost like a good news week today for the fundamentals that drive AUT prices. 




From: http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/oil/...-trades-over-79-as-the-us-dollar-weakens.html


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

*Reliance Reportedly Eyeing Fourth Shale Deal  *
Oil and Gas Insight (registration) - ‎4 hours ago‎
According to that report, the company was recently in China seeking investors for a 20% stake in its Eagle Ford shale play and indicated it thought the sale ... 

hopefully not AUT

*Texon Petroleum Prepares To Spud Its First Eagle Ford Shale On The Leighton Field * 
oilbarrel.com - ‎Sep 20, 2010‎
... Corporate said the recent acquisition of Adelphi Energy by AWE, priced at a 43 per cent premium, implied a value of around A$30700 per acre of EFS. ...


----------



## condog (21 September 2010)

AS you sleep tonight cross your fingers and toes for a postive Fed announcment on its monetary policy. Even if its not fantastic, cross everything that its taken positve. 

I have a feeling tonight on the DJIA and Oil price will be huge one way or the other.


----------



## condog (22 September 2010)

Been doing some work on the spreads between EKA / AUT

The blue line represents the monthly average ratio of AUT to EKA sp.
The red line represents the cumulative monthly average. EG sep 09, is ave of sep 09 only. Oct 09 is average od sep and oct 09 etc etc
The green line represents the 3 month moving average. 

You can actually compare the monthly moving average with the 3 month moving average to get a very crude moving averages indicator. The moving averages are a bit too long term to be tradable at this point. I will work on a better set this morning. 

You can also see that AUt is currently surging ahead, which means its time to jump to EKA in some peoples opinion, or imo it may indicate 2011 AUT growth beginning to be factored in to AUT price only time will tell.


----------



## condog (22 September 2010)

Below is my version of my 5 / 20 day moving average of the AUT, EKA ratio. Open for comments, so go for it. Dont know about you but nokias trading opportunities are pretty obvious.

IMO the blue racing up ahead of the 20 MA indicates the AUT buy and the racing down after it crosses indicates the switch to EKA.


----------



## condog (22 September 2010)

AUT still pumping out new highs with a 1.375

This is definitely a rerating or some serious acqusition, by ??


----------



## condog (22 September 2010)

Well what a day for AUT holders, smashing out another new high of $1.375, 7.5c up on its previous high of the last couple of days. 

Threres definately some stiff acquisition happening. Volume up strongly. Its definitely not TO , type acquisition, imo, its more like some funds grabbign thier share and some ASX 300 watchers / viewers of the AUT presos of last week. 

1.59 not looking silly at all, and my 1.31 target that i got smashed for back earlier in this thread has  been and gone.


----------



## Sharejon (22 September 2010)

Fantastic info Condog.

Like a fair number of people you're coverage of this stock originally alerted me about AUT, and now i'm sitting on healthy 140% gain.

Not to mention i bought EKA at 15c because I knew of AUT's existence! (and the relationship between the 2 companies). So a big thank you to you!

So far, so good, happy holding indeed.

I'm sure the same can be said about the what the future brings as well.

The various overseas (and oil) futures look good at the present time, here's hoping tomorrow can be yet another strong day for the company. Like you said, I'm loving the new highs being smashed out each week.


----------



## condog (22 September 2010)

Sharejon said:


> Fantastic info Condog.
> 
> Like a fair number of people you're coverage of this stock originally alerted me about AUT, and now i'm sitting on healthy 140% gain.
> 
> ...




Yep and the buy sell depth looks reasonable as well , still plenty of gaps o the sell side and a 3:1 ratio. A pullback of somesort will be invevitable, buit having weeded some of the traders out the supply side is very thin on the ground. Bring on 12 months for discount CGT i say, even then, im not sure i want to sell any.


----------



## tonudiki (22 September 2010)

Mmmm...another nice rise in Auroras SP for me to wake up to this morning (I live in the U.K.). 

 I estimate that the SP has now gone up by ~25% since the last *Operational* news update from the company on the 8/9/10. Whilst this increase in SP value is pleasing, it's also a bit worrying.....as an ex Adelphi shareholder I don't want to be robbed by a Takeover of the much higher future value in AUT, as I was with ADI.

 Perhaps the recent rise in the SP has been helped by the Company's issues of "presentation material",  some buying re the entry of AUT into the Oz300 index, a bit more confidence returning in the U.S. economy (albeit is still fragile)  and POO remaining around the $75 mark?

 Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see , but I will certainly feel more relaxed with some further excellent Operational updates and an SP at the very least up in the $1-80's before a bidder declares his hand at a large premium price. 

 At best, I really hope we get left alone until the SP is $3+ but I'm not banking on it!


----------



## condog (22 September 2010)

tonudiki said:


> Mmmm...another nice rise in Auroras SP for me to wake up to this morning (I live in the U.K.).
> 
> I estimate that the SP has now gone up by ~25% since the last *Operational* news update from the company on the 8/9/10. Whilst this increase in SP value is pleasing, it's also a bit worrying.....as an ex Adelphi shareholder I don't want to be robbed by a Takeover of the much higher future value in AUT, as I was with ADI.
> 
> ...




Right now unless they give one hell of a premium i cant see us beeing taken over. No one has a strong starting base other then the stewarts, who wouldnt want to take it over.

Also nearly all share holders in AUs are in the same boat, they dont a=want to pay 45% of CGT hence they wil all want to hold into Q2 next year imo. 

We are a well educated and tightly holding bunch. imo a lot more disciplined then the traders who grabbed control and sold ADI %.


----------



## tonudiki (22 September 2010)

condog said:


> Right now unless they give one hell of a premium i cant see us beeing taken over. No one has a strong starting base other then the stewarts, who wouldnt want to take it over.
> 
> Also nearly all share holders in AUs are in the same boat, they dont a=want to pay 45% of CGT hence they wil all want to hold into Q2 next year imo.
> 
> We are a well educated and tightly holding bunch. imo a lot more disciplined then the traders who grabbed control and sold ADI %.




 Thanks for your thoughts condog.  I had read somewhere on here that you Oz guys get your CGT reduced by 50% after you have held for a year. What I didn't know was that you started paying at *45%* though...hell, that's some rate for "short-term" holders & traders!! Anyway, as you say, that's a big incentive not to sell out of AUT until next year.


----------



## nunthewiser (23 September 2010)

tonudiki said:


> What I didn't know was that you started paying at *45%* though...hell, that's some rate for "short-term" holders & traders!!  .






if pain persists please see a different accountant.

different people have different circumstances,sometimes they may be different to yours.


end of valuable input.


----------



## condog (23 September 2010)

Tonudiki

You had better familiarise yourself with our CGT rules as OS investors are also liable for CGT. Although im not sure whether UK and Aus have a reciprocal tax collection agreement, like As and NZ have.

ITs pretty simple really.

CGT payable at your nominal rate of income tax if share owned for less then 12 months,. If owned more then 12 motnhs a 50% discount applies.

Our tax rates are:

Tax rates 2009–10

Taxable income
 Tax on this income

0 – $6,000
 Nil

$6,001 – $35,000
 15c for each $1 over $6,000

$35,001 – $80,000
 $4,350 plus 30c for each $1 over $35,000

$80,001 – $180,000
 $17,850 plus 38c for each $1 over $80,000

$180,001 and over
 $55,850 plus 45c for each $1 over $180,000
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.asp?doc=/content/12333.htm

Capital Gains Tax 
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/pathway.asp?pc=001/001/038

How capital gains tax affects shares and units 
For CGT purposes, shares in a company or units in a unit trust are treated in the same way as any other CGT assets. 

As a general rule, if you acquire any shares or units on or after 20 September 1985, you may have to pay tax on any capital gain you make when a CGT event happens to them. This would usually be when you sell or otherwise dispose of them. It also includes where you redeem units in a managed fund by switching them from one fund to another. In this case, CGT event A1 happens (see What is a capital gains tax event?).

Profits on the sale of shares held in carrying on a business of share trading are included as ordinary income rather than as capital gains. For more information, read Carrying on a business of share trading.

A CGT event might happen to shares even if a change in their ownership is involuntary – for example, if the company in which you hold shares is taken over or merges with another company. This may result in a capital gain or capital loss. 

Calculating your capital gain or loss
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/c...htm&pc=001/001/038/002/001&mnu=&mfp=&st=&cy=1

The above rates do not include the Medicare levy of 1.5%. This levy would probably not be payable for you, but is payable for AUssies.

Ususally CGT is not a huge problem for most investors, however when you buy a sizable parcel in a stock that performs like AUT has, it can be enough to easily take you into the top bracket, as your Cap gain gets added to your income, to determine your tax bracket , if you make a big gain.

But as Nun said, always see an accountant.


----------



## condog (23 September 2010)

Still lloks good with almost a 3:1 ratio, that ratio is gradually dropping. 

There is still very limited supply on the sell side and its riddled with decent gaps, which imo is still a bullish sign, showing even short term traders are getting greedy with offloading this.


----------



## condog (23 September 2010)

Sugarloaf update

WOW 23 stages on Kowalik which was brilliant even when TCIE muffed it. 6500 feet should have good flows and lower declines  Uruttia spudded already, and im guessing Frank Unit will be spudded before mid Oct.



> 23rd September 2010
> Company Announcements Platform
> Australian Stock Exchange
> Level 4
> ...


----------



## prgudula (23 September 2010)

Bollinger Bands

AUT.AX has closed below upper band by 4.8%. Bollinger Bands are 106.5% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to AUT.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 5 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.


----------



## nioka (23 September 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> if pain persists please see a different accountant.
> 
> different people have different circumstances,.




And there is a difference in the way tax is calculated for traders and for investors. If you make a mistake the pain persists for longer.


----------



## nunthewiser (23 September 2010)

nioka said:


> And there is a difference in the way tax is calculated for traders and for investors. If you make a mistake the pain persists for longer.




bingo.

hence my accountant comments through out these last few pages.

different people, different circumstances, different rulings, different tax structures, different kettles of fish.


----------



## condog (23 September 2010)

AUT smashing out another new high on the close at 1.385

Whats nice is there are still plenty of gaps on the sell side.


----------



## frankblack (23 September 2010)

condog said:


> AUT smashing out another new high on the close at 1.385
> 
> Whats nice is there are still plenty of gaps on the sell side.




Dude, I love your enthusiasm! I like your combination of dyed in the wool believer, and in depth researcher. Obviously this one has done well for you, and hopefully will continue to do so. I look forward to your continued posting.
Cheers for all the info you have shared so far.


----------



## tonudiki (23 September 2010)

Condog,
            Thank you for your info on the Aussie tax regime for CGT. 

  I will definitely be taxed under the U.K. rules,  but it was interesting for me to do a calculation of what CGT I would be likely to pay in the U.K. compared to Australia. 

 At my current AUT profits level, I would pay much more CGT in Australia if I hadn't/didn't hold for a year but, after that, under the Aussie rules, I would likely have a lower CGT cost than in the U.K.

 As Nun and Nioka have also pointed out though, it very much depends on an individuals circumstances and choices.

  p.s.  Onwards and upwards for AUT!!


----------



## condog (23 September 2010)

frankblack said:


> Dude, I love your enthusiasm! I like your combination of dyed in the wool believer, and in depth researcher. Obviously this one has done well for you, and hopefully will continue to do so. I look forward to your continued posting.
> Cheers for all the info you have shared so far.




Yep its been an amazing run and an amazing profit.

Have to say though its not one bit luck, it was due to proper research and taking appropriate risks

On the down side my biggest regret is there is apparently no one selling options to insure profits. Similarly liquidity is insufficient to take a profit. 


Tonudiki. Yes our greedy govt sucks wit the best of them. A bunch of fat cats in suits robbing the average joe, while 2/3rds of our population pay no tax. Building 43Billion $ broadbaqnd networks we dont even know if we need or not at a cost of $2000 per man women and child. ie $6000 per houshold, one would think we could get time machines installed in every house for that much. And today we find out the promise she made on the eve of the election is to be breached. What a dog act.ps to all you aussies, i dont care who governs , they are all as bad as each other, we have a great country being wrecked by bad govt at every level. Time for all independents and conscious votes on every issue.:topic Sorry
When will they realise tax minimisation and efficient govt creates wealth.At present its about big govt, bigger consultants and no action. Strangle small business in red tape, make 30% of Aussies pay all the tax and lets see what happens. The beautiful julia has no idea, malcolm would be good, if onluy he shut his mouth. Likewise Joe or Ken 07 if he actually did something. But his plastic elbows and innaction tripped him over.


----------



## condog (24 September 2010)

Reasons why imo we are seeing AUt perform so strongly
1. A double dip was priced in  to the market and to stocks and now it appears we are not having one
2. Oil sentiment and oil stock sentiment revolves around China and India growing demand and US demand, which the US now is apparently in a slow recovery, and China looks like having a soft landing imo
3. Risk appetite of investors is returning 
4. AUT inclusion in the ASX300
5. Investor presentations carried out last week, are working
6. We had an abnormal amount of traders and new investors that didnt particularly know the stock and its true potential post CR and SPP, they have been gradually weeded out by taking profits and imo replaced by investors wanting longer term profits.
7. Many funds and individuals have too limited exposure to the stock market and are re-entering as sentiment turns more positive.
8. AUT has a clear funded program for growth, its acerage and operator are imo low risk
9. AUT is priced on low chances of success and is proving that to be wrong
10. Exposure to oil stocks is becoming imo significantly more important as each step of the recovery happens. To prepare for an era of possibly much much higher oil prices.


----------



## condog (25 September 2010)

DJIA up strongly at 175 at present and oil up really strongly which will bode well monday. It still seems like a total rerating as expected imo. 

Eventually imo the derisked growth prospects needed to be taken into account. Still some significant volumes going through, which is very very encouraging.


----------



## condog (26 September 2010)

Well with the DJIA up almost 200 and oil up nearly 2%, monday is shaping up ok. Bit of risk apetite developing, but how long will it last??

My earlier 1.39 target which caused problems on this thread has come and gone in the blink of an eye. And my new Jan 2011 target of 1.59, seems closer then ever. This imo is looking more and more like a rerating based on derisking. As such ive placed new trendlines on my charts, as shown below.
Note these are only my personal opinions. Do your own research and seek your own advice.


And for the tech heads from Stoxline. The prolonged width of the bollingers is also indicative of perhaps a new trend establishing itself.


----------



## 5haretrader (26 September 2010)

I haven't been good at all of picking AUT's price movements recently. I thought I saw tops at 1.17 and 1.295 but it just keeps on going up. Nevertheless I'll still post this chart because something interesting has developed. Check out this pitchfork.


----------



## estseon (26 September 2010)

Ton,

Non-residents are only subject to Oz CGT on specified categories of asset

http://www.ato.gov.au/businesses/content.asp?doc=/content/82166.htm&page=3&H3

The current rise in AUT SP might be seen as catching up with the now dated PWC fair value calculation of ADI's SP (at 61 cents). A number of investors applied a 2.5x price multiple to ADI to estimate a fair value of AUT. However, in view of the richness of the principal asset, Longhorn, a higher multiple might be warranted. So anything up to A$1.60 - A$1.80 might be just catch-up with the ADI FV based on previous reserves estimates, decline curves, optimal drilling spacings, drilling programmes, condensate ratios, POO all of which are looking up and, of course, risk, which is reducing.

The dilution effects of the share issues (ADI 15% and AUT 22%) make little difference to the approximation multiple used previously.

Once the market starts to acknowledge the energy demand consequences of the continuing growth of China & India (37% of world population) instead of focussing only on the US (4.5%) and UK/Germany/France/Italy/Spain (about the same), then we should see hardening of POO projections. Then AUT (and EME) should start to re-rate properly.


----------



## Sharejon (26 September 2010)

5haretrader, personally I don't see AUT venturing back into those trendlines. It could adhere to the same gradient eventually, but in the next week I see it continuing with the last 2 weeks movement. Then it might retrace or continue along the previous gradient, at an elevated price though obviously (due to to this recent accelerated movement). If a retracement were to occur, I see it as being smaller to the previous ones.


----------



## condog (26 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> I haven't been good at all of picking AUT's price movements recently. I thought I saw tops at 1.17 and 1.295 but it just keeps on going up. Nevertheless I'll still post this chart because something interesting has developed. Check out this pitchfork.




5hareholder, thats exactly what ive noticed, except i label it as a chnage in trend rather then a pitch fork. Either way its a good signe for AUT. 

Esteon agree with all. Once again your analysis is brilliant imo.

Sharejon, i agree, theres is definitley imo a very significant change occuring and imo rightly so. This acerage andthis operator have proved to be world class. This week ive jumped back into SEA on a small scale, as its news was brillinat, but other then the Bakken through SEA and tghis through AUt and EKA, these are definitely the best opportunities available imo.


----------



## 5haretrader (26 September 2010)

Sure, it has the fundamentals to keep on going up to 1.50, 1.60, whatever but eventually there is going to be a point where there will be some profit taking. If you have a look at the RSI and stochastics something is telling me that time could be soon. 


Anyways, enough of the charts. I think alot of oil stocks will do well tomorrow. AUT and EKA, as well as two up and comers SEA and SSN should react well to the nice rally in Oil price on Friday.


----------



## condog (26 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Sure, it has the fundamentals to keep on going up to 1.50, 1.60, whatever but eventually there is going to be a point where there will be some profit taking. If you have a look at the RSI and stochastics something is telling me that time could be soon.
> 
> 
> Anyways, enough of the charts. I think alot of oil stocks will do well tomorrow. AUT and EKA, as well as two up and comers SEA and SSN should react well to the nice rally in Oil price on Friday.




SSN is still a punt, has upside, based on sale, but its wells are still questionable. SEA has legs and should go imo. EKA looks good on the splits. 

Of course AUT will pull back, but when and for how long, there have been people tipping pullbacks since 30 cents that have been very wrong. they where very wrong at 72c, and they will be wrong again. Sure small corrections, but this thing deserves a serious set of legs and it a ppears to be happening.


----------



## 5haretrader (26 September 2010)

condog said:


> SSN is still a punt, has upside, based on sale, but its wells are still questionable. SEA has legs and should go imo. EKA looks good on the splits.
> 
> Of course AUT will pull back, but when and for how long, there have been people tipping pullbacks since 30 cents that have been very wrong. they where very wrong at 72c, and they will be wrong again. Sure small corrections, but this thing deserves a serious set of legs and it a ppears to be happening.




Agreed Condog. When I suggest a pullback, I am only talking about those 10-15% retraces that AUT has seen after all its 25%+ rallies this year. I believe it's fair to say, that, short of equity market apocalypse, AUT won't be seeing sub $1 prices ever again. I would even go as far to say that if this one pulls back this week or next, it would only venture back into the 1.20s before another run.

Sound fair??


----------



## condog (27 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> I would even go as far to say that if this one pulls back this week or next, it would only venture back into the 1.20s before another run.




Yep no doubt a small pullback at some pont. 20c, though seems a lot given the traders have thinned out substantially and been replaced by "holders" imo. 

DJIA up nearly 200, oil upo nearly 2%, SPI up 57, 2:1 buy sell ratio, still plenty of gaps on the sell side. Things look fine. The bollengers are still widely spread, indicating possible new trend. Pitch fork identified, or as i call it a new trend line.


----------



## AQR (27 September 2010)

Wow big jump start for the day up to 1.475 at one stage, currently at 1.465-up 5.4%


----------



## condog (27 September 2010)

AQR said:


> Wow big jump start for the day up to 1.475 at one stage, currently at 1.465-up 5.4%




Yep and in my mind confirmation of the rerating and changing of the guard. The traders are gone in bulk and the holders / instos/funds have taken hold of the most recent batch.

this is why you let your winners run, so many have sold out along the way and must be kicking themselves so hard.


----------



## Sharejon (27 September 2010)

I wouldn't go as far as saying they'd be kicking themselves hard. I mean if they've invested into AUT recently (without a day-trading mentality), then I don't see how you could have made a loss with the stock. Regardless of how much it's gone up since they've sold, they still will have made healthy profits i'm sure.

Personally I lightened my holding last week, as I was looking to free up some funds and I had some doubts over the US economy, but I definitely still retain the majority of my original holdings and am not even considering selling these beasts anytime soon.

AUT and EKA have been part of the backbone to my portfolio since I opened it at the start of the year, and long may it continue.


----------



## condog (27 September 2010)

Twas a nice new high and i know its sounding a bit like a broke record, but those buy sell ratios and spacing still look very encouraging. Since the traders have been thinned out immensley , sellers are consistently in short supply .  Got to say i much prefer it this way with investors in control.

That 1.59 target is getting closer and closer. Euroz and H's will have to put out revised targets soon on the basis of 3 months of thier 6 month target now lying in the window of three rigs and a FT frac crew.

Im seriously tipping SEA as the next one to rerate. Its got all the same writing on the wall imo that AUT had 6 motnhs ago. Its sured up its acerage, its funding and its operator. Both its operators are currently looking at accellerating its program. Sound similar. DYOR definitely.


----------



## 5haretrader (27 September 2010)

condog said:


> this is why you let your winners run, so many have sold out along the way and must be kicking themselves so hard.




Well mate, I don't know about others, but kicking myself is the furthest thing on my mind at the moment. AUT has been a real success story for me this year and I'm also happy for holders that this one is making new highs everyday. Amidst the uncertainty in the world's markets this one keeps on busting out these unstoppable rallies. 

Having sold my AUT holdings, I'm now keeping a close eye on SEA which I believe is underappreciated by the market at this point. Other companies on the radar for me are SSN and my roughie is GGE.


----------



## condog (27 September 2010)

Well i just read tonights installment of the eureka report and ive got to say if those guys are right, which they seem to be more often then they are not, theres several article painting a very rosy picture indeed. 

*Indicators that make me bullish *
By Andrew Switajewski
September 27, 2010



Instead of focusing on popular indicators that “lag”, he concentrates on measures that might be considered by some market commentators to be off the beaten track. 

His favoured indicator is the US Federal Reserve survey of credit officers.

To date, he says the media has focused on tightening of balance sheets for banks,  however the facts show tightening credit standards moved negative this quarter which in the past creates employment and economic activity.

Another indicator that routinely gets a lot of air time is the Baltic Dry Index. which traditionally is an indicator of the Aussie market, and its up..

Another is the S&P 500 Index &  S&P 500 dividend yield – US 10 year Treasury yield  This is usually a good contrarian signal to buy the US market. And right now it says buy.


Then we have alan Kohler saying 
*Australia in a sweet spot *


We’re in for a few years of strong GDP growth, shares are looking cheap and there’s barely a cloud to spoil the outlook. 


The overnight interest rate swap (OIS) market has now put a 52% chance on a rate hike next month. 

Paul Bloxham, had 12 years in the bowels of the Reserve Bank reckons rates will go up 1.25% by the end of next year.

The transition from public to private spending in Australia has been incredibly smooth, 

*I’m feeling as positive about the Australian economy and sharemarket as I ever have.*

The one negative is that the currency

mining companies expect to increase their capital investment by 48% in the year ahead. In a speech last week, Glenn Stevens called this the greatest minerals and energy boom in Australia since the late 19th century.

Paul Bloxham also believes construction, has also bottomed as a share of the economy and will pass previous peak levels in mid-2012, which will make it about 17% of GDP.



He predicts  Australian GDP  to exceed 6% for at least three years and that as a result Australian shares are very cheap.


Citigroup’s analysts have “bottom up” sales and profit forecasts for the ASX 200 of 8% and 24% respectively for 2010-11 (these are an addition of the individual forecasts for each company from the specialist analysts).

But that’s dominated by mining; for industrials the forecasts are a more subdued 5.5% and 7.5% growth. And that’s where the operating leverage from stronger economic growth can come in.

Stronger-than-expected GDP growth will result in higher sales growth, which will go straight to the bottom line. Yes, costs will also grow but nowhere near as much as sales and, more importantly, the benefits the big cost-cutting programs of the past two years are still flowing through.

In other words Australian companies are entering a sweet spot of rising sales and margin expansion.

It means that Australian shares currently look genuinely cheap

That’s not to say there are no risks;


End quotes

Whats this got to do with AUt, well it may have some bearing on the rerating we are seeing right now.

On the flip side Tom Lovel had an article saying this feels like Jan when we had a 3% rise followed by a 10% fall.


----------



## condog (27 September 2010)

Interesting article pointing out the reason reliance which is a state owned Indian enterprise is so active accumulating energy worldwide.

Looming crisis
September 27, 2010   5:52:37 PM

The Pioneer Edit Desk

India must secure energy needs

The Oil & Natural Gas Corporation has taken a welcome step in foraying into shale gas exploration. The public-sector energy major has spudded its first well, the RNSG-1, at Ichapur village near Kolkata to assess the potential of a 700-metre thick shale of Permian age. The ONGC plans to drill three more shale gas wells in the Damodar basin in West Bengal and Bihar. However, the programme does not discount the fact that the Government has failed to pursue a sound energy security policy. When neighbouring China was matching steps with developed countries like the US, France, the Netherlands and Canada to explore tomorrow’s most important source of fossil fuel energy, it was yet to catch the imagination of our authorities. By the time we woke up to the reality, finished our deliberations on the potential of such a programme and exchanging notes on formulating a comprehensive shale gas pilot programme, China had moved far ahead. Today, it is producing more shale gas than the US. Even Reliance Industry’s recent interest to buy a stake in Eagle Ford shale gas project, owned by the US-based Chesapeake Energy, should not be viewed just as an effort to expand its businesses beyond petrochemicals, refining, oil and natural gas exploration. The decision highlights the company’s conscious decision to stay competitive in the energy sector because its last natural gas find, the Krishna-Godavari Basin D6, happened some seven years ago. 

Even as India is poised for a healthy 8.5 per cent growth, the stark reality of rapidly increasing demand for energy is staring us in the face. And the problem is compounded by the fact that we lack in hydrocarbon resources. What is surprising is that India has failed to exploit its proximity with countries which are treasure troves of hydrocarbons. Qatar, for instance, has the largest availability of natural gas in the world. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia are also repositories of hydrocarbons. Burma, with whom we share borders and good diplomatic relations, is supplying gas to Thailand. But we have made no arrangements to pipe this gas to our country. In April 2006, China signed a framework agreement with Turkmenistan on constructining a pipeline for long-term gas supply. The inflow of Turkmen gas will significantly help China in meeting its energy demands and stabilising its overall consumption structure. India woke up to such a possibility only last Monday when it signed an initial agreement for laying a pipeline to bring gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan. The World Energy Outlook, published by the International Energy Agency, projects that India’s dependence on oil imports will grow to 91.6 per cent by 2020. If we fail to put our act together, we will be left stranded in a seller’s market.


----------



## condog (28 September 2010)

Well there we have it our almost first real bid at 1.51 and its not even me. Obviously someone wants in onthe open or they are just a tree shaker. No big deal, just a milestone for AUT die hards.

Still plenty of gaps on the sell side and a good 2:1 ratio. No obvious signs of any slowdoan yet. 





For the tech heads 




Those bolly bands do look mighty wide and they have been there for a while, so perhaps a lot more of this to come ???

You got to remmebr these oilers have been out of favour since 2008, so we have sought of become used to thier relatively low prices, which im guessing have now become noticed by the market, seeking a bit more risk and return. If thats the case we can possibly expect a very significant rerating, based not only on the rerating we thought AUT had to have based on its derisking, but then on top of that possibly a market rerating of oilers in general.


----------



## condog (28 September 2010)

What a brilliant article highlighting the investment case for companies liek AUT imo 

*History and Mathematics Make Higher Oil Prices Inevitable* 

Every week the financial media make a big deal out of reporting the weekly crude oil inventories in the US. Traders will then bid the price of oil up or down based on these reports. The reporting is done with much fanfare from a correspondent who is strategically positioned on floor of the NYMEX to give the whole affair a sense of authority and importance. In fact the whole spectacle is Kabuki Theater unless you are a trader. There is never any discussion or analysis of long term secular demand trends in the emerging markets or what will have to be done on the supply side to accommodate this increased demand. My view is that commodities, and energy in particular, are going to become significantly more expensive and that this represents a huge long term investment theme.

Everybody already knows the story about growth in the emerging markets. We are constantly bombarded with stories about the spending habits of the new Chinese consumer or how many cars were sold in India last quarter. However, what does this really mean with respect to something like oil demand and pricing? Below I show a chart of per capita oil demand use in the United States.





This chart is very illustrative of how oil use progresses as an economy industrializes and transitions from a rural agrarian economy to an urban industrial economy. Oil use leveled out below twenty five barrels per person per year. As a comparison I have next included a graph of Chinese per capita oil use.




It can be plainly seen that per capita Chinese oil demand growth is following the historical example of the US. I am not suggesting that Chinese per capita oil demand will rise to the twenty barrel level of the US. However, the argument can be made that per capita oil demand in China could grow to the level of Japan or South Korea. Japan's per capita consumption of oil is approximately fourteen barrels per person per year and South Korean per capita consumption is sixteen barrels. For the purpose of illustration let us assume that Chinese demand will increase to fifteen barrels per day which would put it in between Japan and South Korea. China's population is a little over 1.3 billion people, so doing the math 1.3 billion times 15 barrels per person per year divided by 365 days, means Chinese oil consumption would grow from the current 7.8 million barrels per day to 53 million barrels per day over the next couple of decades. Let’s now take a look at India and its 1.1. billion people. Current oil consumption per capita in India is .9 barrels per person per day or almost three million barrels per day. Doing the math using the same assumptions that were used in China’s case we arrive at 45 million barrels of oil consumption.





full article at 
http://seekingalpha.com/article/227181-history-and-mathematics-make-higher-oil-prices-inevitable

Imagine if chinese demand rises to just 5 barrells let alone 10 or 15 per capita.




Even at 3.5 boppyr thats an extra 1.75 billion barrells of oil required per annum. and if india then grow to 2 bopppyr then thats an additional 1.25 billion barrels p.a.  Using crude calcs. those are pretty conservative numbers and they would still have a massive impact on the oil supply demand imbalance imo.


----------



## Assasin (28 September 2010)

Really injoying the info coming through at the moment, let alone the sp.
Has anyone got a handle on what was going on yesterday with hundreds of trades at such small amounts. Seemed to be just nuisance value.


----------



## AngusSmart (28 September 2010)

Thats a damn heck of a lot in the oil department. one can see why india is so hungry for resources.. i am not sure of the math above in that example but it seems a bit confusing, maybe its just too early but they dont seem to compare properly with the barrels per day per person, and per year?

Condog, i have been looking into Sea & Ssn for some time, but most research going into Ssn (something for 7c got my attention and also their bank balance after the recent sale.).. i am a bit scared to jump into Ssn dew to them not quiet meeting the mark when drilling holes and having problems with the frac. if they could get Chesapeake on board for their jv partner things would be probably alot better.

I've not quiet looked so much into Sea, but how would they compare to Aut and Eka??


----------



## basilio (28 September 2010)

> What a brilliant article highlighting the investment case for companies liek AUT imo
> 
> History and Mathematics Make Higher Oil Prices Inevitable




Yes  very cogent story Coondog.  Just totally terrifying in terms of the implications for the rest of our civilization.

The story highlights our current dependence on fossil fuels and the explosion of demand that India and China will add to the mix.  On the supply side  there is the certainty *that current oil supplies will deplete* and probably very rapidly.   

And what will replace these supplies and attempt to meet the projected Chindia demand ? Lille ol AUT ?  Give it a break.. 

Certainly the price of oil could go up with the demand/supply conflict. But another likely result is simply a large breakdown of our whole industrial society as this unresolvable problem becomes clearer.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

My "hope" is that LNC and similar companies get UCG/GTL processes in place very quickly and that we also find non fossil fuel based energy sources to replace our dependence on what can only be a short term solution. 

But of course the spectacular success of AUT is still worth celebrating - particularly if one can enjoy the rewards.


----------



## Assasin (28 September 2010)

basilio said:


> Yes  very cogent story Coondog.  Just totally terrifying in terms of the implications for the rest of our civilization.
> 
> The story highlights our current dependence on fossil fuels and the explosion of demand that India and China will add to the mix.  On the supply side  there is the certainty *that current oil supplies will deplete* and probably very rapidly.
> 
> ...




Basilio, lets hope not too many fossil fuels are used in the search to get your UCG/GTL processes in place. I wonder how much oil is consumed to create 1 windfarm.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (28 September 2010)

I do think that this thread is getting a bit off topic with the last few comments, lets try to keep this thread on discussing the events of AUT. If you want to discuss global warming/resource depletion with people of this forum, start a thread under General, thanks.


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (28 September 2010)

basilio said:


> On the supply side  there is the certainty *that current oil supplies will deplete* and probably very rapidly.
> 
> 
> ---------------------------------------




Which theory is that? Because Peak Oil theory suggest that we have 200 years worth after we the supply/demand curve changes any day now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (28 September 2010)

I'm of the view that alternate sources of oil will be enough to tide humanity over until we find renewable energy sufficient. There still is those massive deposits of oil in Canada the oil shales? Also as we develop more technology it won't really matter about oil in the long run. As soon as it's financially feasible to have solar/wind/geothermal/wave power, either through an increase in efficiency of the technologies themselves, or an increase in the oil price which makes them viable, we'll switch over to these sources of power. The world tends to have a bad habit of never really ending.


----------



## Assasin (28 September 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> I do think that this thread is getting a bit off topic with the last few comments, lets try to keep this thread on discussing the events of AUT. If you want to discuss global warming/resource depletion with people of this forum, start a thread under General, thanks.






ParleVouFrancois said:


> I'm of the view that alternate sources of oil will be enough to tide humanity over until we find renewable energy sufficient. There still is those massive deposits of oil in Canada the oil shales? Also as we develop more technology it won't really matter about oil in the long run. As soon as it's financially feasible to have solar/wind/geothermal/wave power, either through an increase in efficiency of the technologies themselves, or an increase in the oil price which makes them viable, we'll switch over to these sources of power. The world tends to have a bad habit of never really ending.




Hey frenchy didn't you want to keep this thread on track? No harm done.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (28 September 2010)

Haha well I initially said that, but as they continued I thought I may as well weigh in with an economics based point of view, instead of the "oh my god we are going to run out of oil in 10 years!!!" that usually occurs.

Anyways, no more responses to anything off topic in this thread from me, s'all about AUT AUT AUT.


----------



## condog (28 September 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Which theory is that? Because Peak Oil theory suggest that we have 200 years worth after we the supply/demand curve changes any day now.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil




I suggest some more reading, thats a niave viewpoint given the content of this thread and th econtent of the media on peak, oil, With germany, Australi and the Us military all reporting imminent peak oil concerns.


----------



## condog (28 September 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> I've not quiet looked so much into Sea, but how would they compare to Aut and Eka??




I rode SEA the last few days for $5300 gross profit, and unfortuantely had to sell, to protect a tax bill liability. Its got legs imo, hasnt even broken out of its trend channel yet imo. 

Time will tell. But DYOR. Pitty you didnt buy it yesterday, i tried to hint without being slapped for cross promotion.

this is where in my opinion it pays to watch a few stocks closely rather then many poorly. I saw the imbalance occuring yesterday it was standing out like you know whatsies.


----------



## condog (28 September 2010)

*U.S. Onshore Bodes Well*
By Zacks Investment Research|Sep 27, 2010, 1:32 PM|Author's Website  

Though the U.S. land rig counts fell slightly last week, we continue to believe that onshore market will outperform offshore in the near term. The weekly (09.24.2010) release on rig counts from Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) showed that the U.S. land rig counts were down by 5 to 1635 from the previous week (09.17.2010).

*The onshore-weighted companies will likely continue to enjoy the same favorable situation as they experienced in the second quarter driven by the deepwater moratorium through the end of November.*

We believe that the companies with maximum exposure* in shale plays such as Bakken and Eagle Ford will benefit more due to oil-centric drilling activity*. Liquid drilling activity has been gaining momentum as is indicated by the increasing trend in rig counts. Last week, oil rig count increased by 3 to 673 in the U.S.


http://wallstreetpit.com/45950-u-s-onshore-bodes-well

*
Also worth a read, but extrapolate the meaning onto AUT imo. *
http://www.streetauthority.com/a/how-profit-north-americas-new-oil-boom-456595


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (28 September 2010)

Haha condog so it was you who made me research SEA, I remember reading about it somewhere so I did my research and swapped out AUT for SEA this morning, with great results. Thanks for your "hint" . I might swap back into AUT at some point as both are undervalued, but AUT is definitely not worth 4.5 times SEA (the ratio of their market caps). So either AUT is too high (I doubt it, still undervalued) or SEA is an even better buy!! Anyway soz for OT (seems to be alot of that by me on this thread). Just wanted to say thanks condog.


----------



## condog (29 September 2010)

*A Breakthrough Invention in the O&G Market?*
An oil and gas entrepreneur in the US has devised an inexpensive way to capture oil and natural gas vapors around a well site  - and sell them to make money.
These vapors are often flared (burned), or vented into the atmosphere – and trust me, if people really knew how much oil and gas was flared around the world every day – even in first world countries – the media outcry would make the "water-fracking" issue look like a kindergarten party.  In fact satellite images show intense flaring occurring - principally in third world countries.  Shell has just committed $2 billion to reduce flaring from its operations in Nigeria.
“Air pollution requirements related to oil and gas production from the states are becoming increasingly restrictive,” says co- inventor Dr. Paul Trost. And Trost's solution can be profitable.
He adds that a study near Denver in the hydrocarbon rich Denver Basin containing almost 8000 oil and gas wells showed the  “fugitive” hydrocarbons – gases emanating from production tanks-can be captured and sold at a profit rather than burned in a flare.
Just like water evaporates in a dish, oil and gas evaporates from the production tank at a well site, and escapes into the atmosphere or alternately is burned (flared).  The problem becomes bigger when a combination of gas and oil are produced with the gas being injected into a pipeline having pressure.  The oil then is also pressurized and the pressurized gases (like gas in a pop can) then “flash” or boil off like a shaken beer can.  In certain areas these gases are captured and directed to a flare for burning rather than being allowed to vent to the atmosphere.



Trost’s invention, called the V3RU (Variable Volume Vapor Recovery Unit), is different than other vapor recovery systems in that it uses a flexible accumulator (bag) to capture the vapors.  “It swells up like it is taking a deep breath,” says Trost.  “The bag thus captures both the flash gas and also any contained liquids.  We exhale it slowly into compressor for injection and sale to a pipeline.  It’s a variable volume bag and it’s safety rated.  The alternative energy industry already uses it around breweries located in or adjacent to cities.”
Without a bag, Trost says oxygen can get at the vapour and then it won’t meet pipeline specifications.  The gas is then useless and must be flared.  Using a bag allows some back pressure to be used, so it won’t let air in, and the gas retains its purity and suitability for pipeline sale.
Trost says the payout for the V3RU increases as the oil content of the natural gas increases, and also  as the oil gets lighter (has a higher API rating) and contains more condensate.   Typically the V3RU will range in cost from $8,000-$30,000.
He gives a real life example of a gas/condensate well in Colorado that was producing about 30 BOPD and 400 mcfd, but high pipeline pressures were causing a large amount of “flash” gas - containing both recoverable oil and gas - was being lost.
Application of the V3RU will allow the operator was able to capture an additional 8-10 boe/d, resulting in roughly a 2 year payout.
The product has been used almost exclusively in the Denver Basin, Trost says, but it is now starting to be used in other areas.  Trost is a board member of Nextraction Energy (NEX-TSXv), which will be using the V3RU vapor recovery system to meet air quality regulations at Nextraction’s newly discovered gas-condensate well located at the  Pinedale Anticline play in Wyoming.
MV LLC, the owner of the technology, is a subsidiary of Strategic Environmental and Energy Resources, symbol SENR on the pink sheets.  I hold no interest or position in either Nextraction or SENR.

From Oil and Gas Journal email


----------



## condog (29 September 2010)

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures rose in Asian trading Wednesday, as key snapshots of business sentiment in Japan and manufacturing activity in China suggested Asia's top economies are in better health than many thought. 

The data helped the oil market to build on early price gains after the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported overnight Tuesday a larger-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories in the U.S. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $76.45 a barrel at 0613 GMT, up $0.27 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.36 to $79.07 a barrel.

From WSJ


----------



## condog (29 September 2010)

*The Eagle Ford play is now believed to have the best natural gas economics in North America because of the liquids window*, beating even the Marcellus. Natural gas production from this new but strategically important area is expected, by industry participants, to exceed 1 billion cubic feet per day(Bcfd) and 35,000 barrels per day (Bpd) of oil by end 2012, inducing new infrastructure investments as well. Already, 50 companies are active in the Eagle Ford (compared with around 60 in the much older Barnett), which is viewed as a corporate resume enhancer for even large companies. Several of the bigger players who accumulated skills and experience in the Barnett are also now prominent in the Eagle Ford.

Full article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/227539-natural-gas-the-hybrid-model-is-expanding




*US energy companies rush into shale oil projects * 
Financial Times - Sheila McNulty - ‎12 hours ago‎
Other fields, such as the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas and the Niobrara Shale are now being targeted. “We'll see a doubling of the rig count in the next two ... 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f2cc0ce-cb1b-11df-95c0-00144feab49a.html

Aslo read a funny article not worth posting, but it was titeld something like "peak oil a load of rubbish" but ti then discredited peak oil, only to say we have a wose scenario, all the new oil fields are located in enemy territory or worse deep under the sea. The conclusion was get americans to buy small cars and buy houses close to public transport, as either way prices of oil look set to skyrocket.


----------



## condog (30 September 2010)

Oil up strongly overnight. Im now almost convinced we are in wave 3 of an elliot wave, the longest in the 5 wave cycle. Obviously the global debt issues are a concern, as is terrorism etc, but in isolation the aussie stocks are starting to look like taking on higher prices for a while imo. Could be wrong so DYOR.


----------



## 5haretrader (30 September 2010)

Hmmm this thing has had a few goes at breaking the $1.50 mark recently without much success. Market depth has swung around now...could be retrace time. The RSI and Stochastics were quite overbought so I guess today's movement makes sense from a charting perspective.

Its unfortunate because the price of oil was up last night but all the small cap oilers are either flat or down a bit today.


----------



## condog (30 September 2010)

5haretrader said:


> Hmmm this thing has had a few goes at breaking the $1.50 mark recently without much success. Market depth has swung around now...could be retrace time. The RSI and Stochastics were quite overbought so I guess today's movement makes sense from a charting perspective.
> 
> Its unfortunate because the price of oil was up last night but all the small cap oilers are either flat or down a bit today.




Yeh weve had a good run, and invetiably it neads to take a breather. I just hoe we have very light volume to keep the traders out a bit, i like that tightly held feeling where when the buyer line up she goes like a bullet.


----------



## rockhound308 (30 September 2010)

Good to see Hilcorp keeping buisy with two new drilling permit applications on the TRRC web site, Turnbull 4h and Guilly Unit 1h


----------



## condog (30 September 2010)

Nice to see another Turnbull so soon, i honestly thought they would sure up sugarloaf first, but with higher interest this suits AUT holders just fine.

Perhaps they are so impressed with the liquids at Longhorn, they have gone for another earlier then previously indicated. I cant wait to see those unrestricted or fully fracced longhorn flows. They may not be as high as Rancho and Morgan, but they will certainly be very very economic imo.


----------



## condog (30 September 2010)

*House passes shale gas production tax*
GOP-controlled Senate will likely amend the bill
Thursday, September 30, 2010
By Tom Barnes, Post-Gazette Harrisburg Bureau
HARRISBURG -- Democrats and environmentalists praised it, while Republicans and gas industry officials pilloried it. But in the end, a bill to create Pennsylvania's first Marcellus Shale gas severance tax took a step forward Wednesday.

Senate Bill 1155, after being totally rewritten by House Democrats, would slap a hefty levy of 39 cents per thousand cubic feet (MCF) of gas extracted from underground shale throughout Pennsylvania.



Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10273/1091447-454.stm#ixzz110eKQzed


----------



## rockhound308 (30 September 2010)

That Turnbull lease looks to be about 3800 acres, thats another 3  wells drilled to hold it fully as I understand.  I guess theres plenty of infrastructure set up around Turnbull already if thats becoming a bottle neck, maybe something to watch.


----------



## condog (1 October 2010)

Oil up very nicely on upbeat economic news. Can it be sustained. This will once again accellerate well payback times and cash flow which now must be imminent.




NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures climbed to seven-week highs Thursday, helped by improving economic data and continued support from last week's declines in U.S. oil and fuel inventories. 

Light, sweet crude for November delivery settled up $2.11, or 2.7%, at $79.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price since Aug. 10. The contract briefly broke above the $80 a barrel mark late in floor trading. 

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange recently traded $1.59 higher at $82.36 a barrel. 

"Investors are a little more bullish" on oil, said Chris Barber, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. Thursday's better-than-expected economic data lifted U.S. energy demand expectations slightly, he said. 

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the U.S. economy was a little stronger in the second quarter than earlier believed. In a separate report, the Labor Department said weekly initial unemployment claims fell in the week ended Sept. 25. 

The data offer a precursor to an important report on manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management Friday morning. Strengthening in the industrial sector, a major oil consumer, would bolster the view that oil demand is steadily improving. 

"If we see decent manufacturing data ... we could get a bump up," said Matt Smith, an analyst with Summit Energy. 
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100930-712831.html


----------



## AngusSmart (1 October 2010)

A new board member...

Non Executive Board Appointment
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to announce the appointment of Fiona Harris as a non-executive director effective 1 October 2010.
A professional non-executive director for the past 15 years Fiona has held board positions for over 25 companies. She is a member of the national board of the Australian Institute of Company Directors and was formerly Western Australian State President.

Director of ASX listed companies Altona Mining Limited, Territory Resources Ltd and *Sundance Resources Ltd*, and Director of private company Perron Group Limited.

More on the asx announcement..

Sundance spreading the love around!


----------



## nioka (1 October 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> A new board member...
> 
> Non Executive Board Appointment
> Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to announce the appointment of Fiona Harris as a non-executive director effective 1 October 2010.
> ...




Interesting choice of a director. I believe her speciality is in capital raising and financial management. Is it an indication of things to come. Why did they need her? there must be a specific reason.


----------



## AngusSmart (1 October 2010)

nioka said:


> Interesting choice of a director. I believe her speciality is in capital raising and financial management. Is it an indication of things to come. Why did they need her? there must be a specific reason.




Interesting indeed!!


Fiona Harris’s Summary

BACKGROUND

Fiona Harris has been a professional non-executive director for the past 15 years. In addition, for a 5 year period until December 1999 she was an executive director of Barrington Consulting Group Pty Ltd, a company providing consulting services in the areas of strategic and business planning. She currently acts as non-executive Chairman of that company.

Fiona began her career with chartered accountants KPMG and was a partner in their Sydney office when she left that organisation in December 1994.
During her 14 years with KPMG, Fiona worked in Perth, San Francisco and Sydney specialising in financial services and superannuation. She was also involved in capital raisings, due diligence, flotations, capital structuring of transactions and litigation support.


http://au.linkedin.com/pub/fiona-harris/8/b1a/874

Surely they dont need any more capital... but if they do whats the plan..??..


----------



## martyfar (1 October 2010)

nioka said:


> Interesting choice of a director. I believe her speciality is in capital raising and financial management. Is it an indication of things to come. Why did they need her? there must be a specific reason.





hmmmm ..... it would make good sense for AUT  ta merge with,  or acquire EKA .........  a possibility ???  whatya think nioka


----------



## nioka (1 October 2010)

martyfar said:


> hmmmm ..... it would make good sense for AUT  ta merge with,  or acquire EKA .........  a possibility ???  whatya think nioka




It has always made sense that AUT take over EKA in my mind. If they dont then I suggest that AWE will. However AUT need not raise capital to do that job. Just pick the right time for a share swap. I don't really care of the ratio. I hold both so what I lose on one i would gain on the other. todays value would be about right.


----------



## condog (1 October 2010)

They have a planned cap raising in H2 2011 irrespective of other shenanigans. 

EKA not a target imo, obvious synergies, but why not chase the raw acerage without the premium. They have the contacts and know how.


----------



## condog (2 October 2010)

Oil up very nicely over night again, now at $81.60, very nice indeed for AUT and all oilers / condensators.


----------



## condog (2 October 2010)

I updated my valuations spreadsheet this morning in light of the 6%+ rise in oil prices and the return to risk placing higher PE on energy stocks.

I used $77Condensate , $3.25Gas, PE12 and get

Current Valuation imo $1.47
End of 2010              $1.70
Endo od 2011            $4.60

Note this is only opinion , and is based on all other factors reamaining equal which they innevitabley wont. Always DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## Sharejon (2 October 2010)

I would love for EKA and AUT to merge (holder of both), as it would really expand AUT's holdings and even further solidify it's place as a true big name oil/gas producer.

They're also so close to home with each other, so nothing drastic would need to be changed.

Takeover or not, both companies (especially AUT) have a very prosperous future.


----------



## condog (2 October 2010)

Oil up strongly accross the board makes for an interesting week ahead. 





Intersting it hardly strays below its 10 day moving average, and its 10 day moving average rarely turns negative. Similarly but obviously hardly any negative with its 15 day moving average. And its 20 day average has no down turns in the last 12 months. Not abad guide for buying points, and so far a good guid of support levels. 
Its 20 day MA is currently at about $1.20
Its 15 Day MA is currently at about $1.27
Its 10 day MA is currently at about $1.38

To me and its only opinion but imo unlikely to pull back far or for long, and if trends continue we are likely to be well past 1.48 in 20 days time.


----------



## condog (3 October 2010)

Analysis
The above is an extract from the Oil & Gas Journal Newsletter of October 4 (on line). How could it be otherwise? Except for the interdicted Gulf of Mexico, U.S. activity is quickly being restricted to first class shale plays such as the Eagle Ford and Bakken plus limited redevelopment in the Permian basin and the San Joaquin Valley. Prospects for large crude oil discoveries in the U.S. are slim but that is not true in Africa and Asia. Already discovered giant fields in Iraq alone are enough to attract vast sums of capital. Eastern Siberia is only now getting required infrastructure to support development of big oil and gas fields. Mexico, Libya and even Algeria are far down the mature  trail but much inexpensive oil can be produced from the Orinoco Tar Belt. That one will not go away. Activity in the Magdalena Valley of Colombia is robust. Petrobras, flush with over $25 billion of newly raised cash will be continuing Brazil's ambitious Santos basin developments and the Campos basin is still highly prospective. The reality is that the international decline rate for existing oil fields exceeds 6%/year  which translates into a loss of 4 million bbl/day/year. Saudi Aramco recently announced a 5 year capital and exploratory budget focused on natural gas plus downstream spending. The situation in Saudi Arabia is that only one large field remains to be redeveloped - Manifa. That is the last of the Mohicans. Without further giant and supergiant oil fields to develop, Saudi Aramco now faces an era of substantial high decline rates. They will soon match those of the U.K. North Sea, Mexico and the U.S. The sharp capital and exploratory cutbacks of late 2008 and much of 2009 are now beginning to lower estimates of new production coming on line next year and in 2012. Once OECD inventories level off and even begin to decline again, crude oil prices will get back on the track of first half 2008. Oil company and service company CEOs can see this. Schlumberger's Andrew Gould, who occupies the catbird seat when it comes to acute observation of global activity can clearly see what is happening and his most recent remarks at the Barclay's Conference reflect this.

From
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Last-we...prices-a-sign-of-shortages-or-not--50813.html


----------



## basilio (5 October 2010)

*



The reality is that the international decline rate for existing oil fields exceeds 6%/year which translates into a loss of 4 million bbl/day/year. Saudi Aramco recently announced a 5 year capital and exploratory budget focused on natural gas plus downstream spending. The situation in Saudi Arabia is that only one large field remains to be redeveloped - Manifa. That is the last of the Mohicans. Without further giant and supergiant oil fields to develop, Saudi Aramco now faces an era of substantial high decline rates. They will soon match those of the U.K. North Sea, Mexico and the U.S.
		
Click to expand...


*
Worth reading that extract again slowly and carefully. The projected 6% annual decline in current oil supplies is troubling beyond measure. Attempting to keep a highly energy based civilization operational with such an ongoing reduction in energy resources  just seem possible. In the vernacular (as well as the actual) it ain't gonna fly.


----------



## Assasin (5 October 2010)

Is this a case of no news is good news? Very flat day all round. Carn't see an Aussie interest rake hike affecting AUT to much. The current pullback of around 8% from peak is about the same as past pullbacks. Possibly a good chance to top up for the long term believers.


----------



## condog (5 October 2010)

basilio said:


> Worth reading that extract again slowly and carefully. The projected 6% annual decline in current oil supplies is troubling beyond measure. Attempting to keep a highly energy based civilization operational with such an ongoing reduction in energy resources  just seem possible. In the vernacular (as well as the actual) it ain't gonna fly.




I agree - with the real or unreal threats of peak oil, its clear thes cos offer cheap insurance.


----------



## Sharejon (6 October 2010)

I was very pleased to see AUT up just over 3% today. It's a good way to hopefully get the ball rolling again. Volume was reasonable as well.

Much better than the news that one of my O&G stocks went down 25% today (CTP), although it is a make or break stock, so this is to be expected on occasions.

You win some and you lose some, as they say. And I'm thrilled to say I've easily won AUT so far , and I'm fairly keen to keep on winning!


----------



## condog (6 October 2010)

Yep theres plenty of underlying support and few willing to sell there shares , which is a nice way to be.

Was having a moment of contemplation this arvo, about where the oil price was heading. And ive got to say im comforted that with all the dire headlines around and us barely recovering from the biggest global economic shock and recession in most our lives, look where oil is. Its $82 on the back of a global rout so to speak. 

I came to the conclusion if this is where oil is with Europe in the poop tank, the US with one hand and a foot out of the poop tank then im pretty sure the situation for global oil prices has already changed for ever. 

India and China is what im putting it down to , that they are now demanding so much more energy, with both bumping just under double digit growth and having half the worlds population, its game on for oil already imo, barring a huge global shock or GFC 2. 

Think about it for a moment, with everything as subdued economically as it is and oil at $80 its either a scary sign of things to come, or its simply a case of every one exiting dollars to hold commodities and other assets. 

Either way it makes little old oiolers like AUT look imensely profitable going forward if the trend continues.

Im also wondering like many others whether some of the OPEC countries are fudging , guessing or worse about there reserve figures. There seem to be some very static figures beeing supplied




Given the massive decline in world discoveries, i find it hard to beleive the OPEC (already highly explored areas) have manged to find new reserves as fast as they are depeleting them. And judging by the oil price im not alone with this viewpoint.


----------



## Agentm (7 October 2010)

Plains E&P announced a significant acquisition in the Eagle Ford oil shale trend and provided an operational update.

PXP, Plains E&P, has agreed to acquire interests in approximately 60,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford oil and gas condensate windows in South Texas for $578 million in cash. Of the 60,000 net acres, approximately 20,400 net acres are located in a joint operating area between PXP and EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG - News). The Eagle Ford properties are located primarily in Karnes County of South Texas and have net resource potential of approximately 140 to 175 million BOE, projected net production capability of approximately 2,000 BOE per day and a year-end 2011 production target exit rate of approximately 5,000 BOE per day net to PXP.

James C. Flores, Chairman, President and CEO of PXP commented, "We are pleased to announce this significant acquisition which enables us to aggressively expand our large, high-margin onshore oil business. The Eagle Ford transaction adds a high-quality oil asset with substantial reserve and oil production growth opportunities to PXP's existing domestic oil resource position. As part of our focused oil growth strategy, PXP will operate substantially all of its oil assets, maintain total company liquids volumes between 50% and 60% of total production, and continue to deploy a hedge strategy to protect our cash flows."

The Eagle Ford oil shale acquisition is expected to close during the fourth-quarter 2010, subject to customary closing conditions and adjustments, with an effective date of September 1, 2010. J.P. Morgan provided financial advisory services related to the acquisition. As previously announced, the data room process for the planned Gulf of Mexico deepwater divestment is underway with final bids expected in late-October to mid-November. PXP expects the divestment to close by year-end 2010. Barclays Capital and Jefferies & Company are assisting PXP in the Gulf of Mexico deepwater divestment.


10K ish an acre

disclosure:  not a holder of aut


----------



## Assasin (7 October 2010)

Agentm said:


> Plains E&P announced a significant acquisition in the Eagle Ford oil shale trend and provided an operational update.
> 
> PXP, Plains E&P, has agreed to acquire interests in approximately 60,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford oil and gas condensate windows in South Texas for $578 million in cash. Of the 60,000 net acres, approximately 20,400 net acres are located in a joint operating area between PXP and EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG - News). The Eagle Ford properties are located primarily in Karnes County of South Texas and have net resource potential of approximately 140 to 175 million BOE, projected net production capability of approximately 2,000 BOE per day and a year-end 2011 production target exit rate of approximately 5,000 BOE per day net to PXP.
> 
> ...




Thanks for this agent. Any chance we could get your view on what this means for AUT or other surrounding companies?


----------



## condog (7 October 2010)

*RIL fails to expand acreage in Texas Eagle Ford Shale field news* 

*06 October 2010 * 

*Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), the $45-billion Indian hydrocarbon giant, has failed to expand its acreage in Eagle Ford Shale field after talks collapsed with Chesapeake Energy Inc, the largest player in the Eagle Ford gas field in South Texas.*



> continued:
> Citing sources Reuters today reported that RIL has ended talks for a stake in the Eagle Ford shale liquid play in south Texas with Oklahoma-based Chesapeake.
> 
> Chesapeake, the second-largest producer of natural gas in the US, holds around 400,000 acres in the Eagle Ford shale, making it to be the largest holder of shale acreage in the area.
> ...




Loooks like RIL are back in the market for another big acquisition and with plenty of dough.


----------



## condog (7 October 2010)

In relation to the plains deal it shows the move to onshore due to tighter and more expensive regulations which ive been predicting since the first week of the BP spill.



> The oil and gas explorer had said in August it would shift away from offshore properties to onshore fields because of the new wave of regulations expected following the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.






> "We continue to have positive feelings about that and it just reflects the quality assets and also the strength of the oil curve that is driving that process," Plains executives said on a conference call.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Sharejon (7 October 2010)

IMO, I'd very much like to see some more news from AUT/EKA.

Whatever happened to the days when news was fortnightly (or even more frequent) reports on wells were released?

Fantastic research their Condog.


----------



## condog (8 October 2010)

Sharejon said:


> IMO, I'd very much like to see some more news from AUT/EKA.
> 
> Whatever happened to the days when news was fortnightly (or even more frequent) reports on wells were released?
> 
> Fantastic research their Condog.




Theres frac crew delays all over the eagle ford at present, and combine that with the slow downs provided by the 3 phase fracs which plenty are doing, compounds the issue. The important thing is in my projections they are still on track. They where so far ahead 2 months ago that they will still meet there Dec 2010 target of 20 wells imo.

*Hows this for a fire cracker, hot off the press 1 minute ago. This will spark even more investment pressure to come onshore in a very big way imo. And it may well spark another strong run for oil futures.*



> EU energy chief plans deepwater drilling banPublished 11:29 PM, 7 Oct 2010 Last update 11:29 PM, 7 Oct 2010
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ...




*More costs, more delays, more uncertainty, more risk for offshore drillers = money redirected to onshore plays.*

Makes it sweet for AUT to be sitting in the sweet spot of the sweetest sweetspot in US onshore shale.

elsewhere on the US offshore drilling ban


> New offshore drilling rules coming Thursday
> The Associated Press
> 
> Thursday, Oct. 7, 2010 | 12:15 a.m.
> ...




from the Calgary Herald

But stringent rules around offshore drilling are affecting supply by wiping out some prospects, while making remaining offshore projects more expensive. 

"Supply is definitely tighter because we had our opportunity set dwindle down," Rodberg said. 

"Can Saudi Arabia turn on the taps to offset all the delayed offshore drilling? I doubt it. Nor would they necessarily want to get out of this pricing structure." 

Barring a dramatic reduction in global economic growth, Rodberg sees strong oil prices as sustainable in the near term as countries put in place more moratoriums on drilling, affecting supply.


He sees equity markets opening, leading to more risk-taking on the belief of more money flowing into the investment space. But King also cautioned that as quickly as oil rallied, it can drop again, forecasting it will trade in a fairly broad range between $70 and $85 US per barrel.

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Crude+rise+expected+steam/3636708/story.html#ixzz11g8hekmE


----------



## estseon (8 October 2010)

Our friend Gunther has a few things to reconcile:

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressRelease...format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

30 September 2010

"The unpredictability of energy security, the volatility in energy prices and the delays in new technology and infrastructure investments call for decisive action"

"-    Despite recent serious external supply crisis that acted as a wake up call as to Europe's vulnerability, there is still no common foreign approach towards partner supplier or transit countries" He's referring to the spats between Russia and its eastern block customers who are adverse to paying.

"I want to bring the consumer onto our side. We need to improve the implementation of the internal energy market and make sure that consumers get a good deal.    We also need to reassure individuals that our energy systems are safe. Safety of oil and gas production and transport must be guaranteed. We must never have an accident like Deepwater Horizon here. "

He's not talking about banning off-shore. Besides, the UK would not tolerate it, Norway is beyond his reach and Italy never does what it is told to do anyway.

Besides which, he'll be blamed if the EU has shortages and it's not going to have a particularly significant effect on Texas. 

On the other hand, China's projected energy demands will. Look at EVE's July 2010 presentation (it's into uranium) slide 7 - China will double consumption by 2015 and be at levels of consumption projected for the US 15 years later. If a small change in US demand is thought to have significant effects on global oil prices, what effect might China's energy demand have. They can't fill it all with coal (or uranium).

I read somewhere that BP rather slyly honoured its pledge to fund the $20bn fund by assigning its GoM revenues to that purpose - if Obama blocks BP's activities, he'll screw the compensation fund. Nice


----------



## Sdajii (8 October 2010)

Sharejon said:


> IMO, I'd very much like to see some more news from AUT/EKA.
> 
> Whatever happened to the days when news was fortnightly (or even more frequent) reports on wells were released?
> 
> Fantastic research their Condog.




Nothing seems to have changed there, we have been getting updates about every week or two, it rarely goes much longer than that. It has been 15 days since the last update, so I'm guessing we'll get something today or early next week. It was more exciting when the first few wells were telling us lots of new information, but each new report gets more and more predictable and has less and less impact. Still, I'm hanging out for the next one, as it seems you are.


----------



## condog (9 October 2010)

*Eagle Ford gas producers face shortage of fracking crews  *
Platts - ‎1 hour ago‎
Service companies cannot keep up with the boom in natural gas drilling in the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas, leading to a shortage of crews that perform ... 


Mind you hilcorp so far have done a brilliant job of securing them in a timely manner. 

Hopefully they will also do a brilliant job of securing thier full time crew for 2011 as promissed.


----------



## condog (11 October 2010)

Cnooc Ltd. will pay $1.08 billion for a one-third stake in Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s Eagle Ford shale project in Texas, in the biggest acquisition of a U.S. oil and gas asset by a Chinese company.


----------



## philly (11 October 2010)

condog said:


> *RIL fails to expand acreage in Texas Eagle Ford Shale field news*
> *06 October 2010 *
> *Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), the $45-billion Indian hydrocarbon giant, has failed to expand its acreage in Eagle Ford Shale field after talks collapsed with Chesapeake Energy Inc, the largest player in the Eagle Ford gas field in South Texas.*
> 
> Loooks like RIL are back in the market for another big acquisition and with plenty of dough.




In the meantime on October 11 2010 Chesapeake sells Texas assets to China's CNOOC.
US gas company Chesapeake Energy said it had reached a deal with China's CNOOC to sell about a third of its interest in the Eagle Ford Shale project in South Texas for 1.08 billion US dollars.
CNOOC has agreed to fund 75 percent of Chesapeake's share of drilling and completion costs until an additional 1.08 billion US dollars has been paid, company officials said on Sunday. The deal is expected to be finalised by the end of the year.

Chesapeake is expected to continue managing the project, conducting all leasing, drilling, operation and marketing activities.

Chesapeake is currently operating 10 rigs in its Eagle Ford leasehold, but with the additional capital from CNOOC Limited, it anticipates increasing its drilling activity to approximately 12 operated rigs by year-end 2010 and approximately and approximately 40 rigs by the end of 2012.

"This transaction will provide the capital necessary to accelerate drilling of this large domestic oil and natural gas resource, resulting in a reduction of our country's oil imports over time, the creation of thousands of high-paying jobs in the US and in the payment of very significant local, state and federal taxes," said Chesapeake chief executive officer Aubrey McClendon.

So with all this international interest and activity in the Eagle Ford where does this leave AUT and EKA? I'm still smarting from the AWE takeover of ADI and would hate for a big international to gobble these 2 up for less than a fair value. Does anyone else share my concerns?


----------



## condog (11 October 2010)

philly said:


> So with all this international interest and activity in the Eagle Ford where does this leave AUT and EKA? I'm still smarting from the AWE takeover of ADI and would hate for a big international to gobble these 2 up for less than a fair value. Does anyone else share my concerns?




I definitely share your concern, as most should. 

We have a company with fantastic growth propects, funded program, world class acerage and world class operator. 

Why would you want to offload that for a quick 50% highly taxed premium at the expense of imo fantastic growth for the forseeable future. 

Wont be selling mine in a hurry i can tell ya.


----------



## philly (11 October 2010)

condog said:


> I definitely share your concern, as most should.
> 
> We have a company with fantastic growth propects, funded program, world class acerage and world class operator.
> 
> ...




Hey condog, I agree.
I didn't want to sell ADI for the same reasons but in the end I had no choice.
I'm just worried that the same scenario could happen with AUT although I would hope that the AUT board would be more aligned with the share holders and not give in to any predator as easily.
My aim ATM is to hold AUT for another 12 months and enjoy the ride.
I guess that after the ADI takeover I'm a bit gun shy but I'll just have to wait and see what happens. Cheers


----------



## estseon (12 October 2010)

philly,

I got pushed out of my ADI investment also but I don't accept that the Board was at fault. AWE had a platform of 34% before it sounded the war trumpets. It only needed 25% of the shares in public hands to gain control and it stated from the outset that it would sack the Board (and install its own stooges) and terminate the listing. It was the AUS company law and take-over rules that allowed them to threaten that, so kick the government/parliament, not the Board. Had the rules required 75% or acquisition of 50% of the shares not held at the time of making the offer, it would have been very different. As it was, AWE was permitted by the rules to spit in the eye of democracy and the Board had no alternative but to advise investors to sell once AWE was confident that it could pick up the 25% that it needed.

AUT is a different kettle of fish.There is (so far as I am aware) no holder or potential concert party holding anything approaching that level of interest in the Company and the large placements are with fund managers (of collective investment vehicles) not arbitrageurs.

The interests of shareholders are almost certainly best served by allowing AUT (or, rather, Hilcorp) to develop those assets and de-risk the reserves. A predator might be forced to pay a premium to current share price but that predator must be able to justify so doing by seeing considerable value to be generated. AWE didn't take out the public interest in ADI as a favour to them.

As regards valuation: a few investors used a rule-of-thumb comparative valuation of AUT:ADI of about 2.5x based on acreage and the assumption that, on average, Longhorn and Ipanema are at least as good as Sugarloaf. PWC (Target defence statement) put a value on ADI of 61c (I have little doubt that you remember that!). So, AUT is still below the value projected on that basis despite the recent reserves certificate and improved drilling and fraccing techniques that promise to reduce the assumed decline rates and increase flows.

The 100c/share figure takes us back, using that rule of thumb measure, to what AWE begrudgingly paid months ago and a lot has happened since, particularly the spectacular results from phases 1 & 2 of Turnbull 3. 

Finally: AWE did not have the cash (last set of accounts) to buy AUT. It could only use shares or a placement. It seems to have been languishing - look at the comparatives for production and reserves (pre-ADI). I don't see it (T/O by AWE) personally - would you accept and hold AWE shares?


----------



## toocool (12 October 2010)

On another note... i had to adjust the stop i have on aut from $1.30 yesterday because i am not sure it will stay above that in the near term and im not too keen to sell ATM.


----------



## condog (12 October 2010)

esteon, thats about the most accurate post i have ever read on this forum. a big thumbs up to you for that detailed and in my opinion highly accurate post. 

Plenty of fools will panic and persih, thats what makes the market a market.


----------



## mir (13 October 2010)

latest valuation from euroz

Price Target: $2.20



Reason For Update: Eagle Ford Shale Valuations



What We Know:           

Talisman and StatOil have purchased Enduring Resources Eagle Ford Shale assets, comprising 90K acres, for US$1.33Bn.

CNOOC has announced a US$2.16Bn to participate in 33.3% of Chesapeake’s 600K Eagle Ford acreage.

The deals are understood to be underpinned by an acreage transaction value of ~US$11K/acre.

AUT is currently trading at US$33K/acre on its current market capitalization.

We have incorporated the full field development plan, comprising 680 wells @ 80acre (previously 480 wells @ 120acre) spacing, (applied by Netherland and Sewell in AUT’s reserves’ report) into our model.

Our valuation increases to $2.20/sh.

What We Think:

The Eagle Ford remains an area of high corporate activity.

However, these latest transactions further highlight the misleading nature of looking at $/acre metrics in isolation and applying them to value other players in the trend.

We believe that AUT has earned a relative premium based upon:

·         its focused, contiguous acreage; 

·         favourable physical characteristics of the Sugarkane Field; 

·         the production data to date; 

·         fully funded to both hold its acreage under production as well as to generate positive cash flow;

·         and a quality, vertically integrated, Operator in Hilcorp.

With production history building upon strong initial results, market valuations for shale producers will increasingly incorporate EV:Res’v and DCF methodologies.

Comparatively, these two deals encompass:

·         large, unfocussed acreage positions; 

·         do not provide comprehensive production data; 

·         and do not articulate corporate drivers underpinning the deals ie funding constraint.


----------



## condog (13 October 2010)

Also from the Euroz report

CONCLUSION
As field economics continue to be proven with more and more production data (and with funding in place on this basis) AUT does not face the need for forced divestment.   Consequently, we believe that $/acre valuation metrics have become increasingly irrelevant in valuing more advanced Eagle Ford players such as AUT.   

Investment Case:Corporate activity in the Eagle Ford highlights the need to move away from $/acre valuation metrics.  The ‘smear’ effect masks differentiation of acreage quality that is evidenced by on-going production data and oil-to-gas ratios (in terms of revenue streams).
We believe that AUT’s results to date under-pins the premium value applied to its acreage and that further increases to share price will follow forthcoming production data and increases to 1P&2P reserves.Noting that AUT is fully funded to develop a premium asset, we expect that the implied $/acre should continue to rise.  BUY with a valuation and price target of $2.20/sh.
Euroz Securities declares that it has acted as underwriter to and/or arranged an equity issue in and/or provided corporate advice to Aurora Oil&Gas Ltd during the last year.Euroz Securities has received a fee for these services.


----------



## condog (14 October 2010)

This is why AUT deserves a premium. Look at the sugarkane IP's compared to elsewhere. And since its still under TCEI im assuming it probably doesnt yet include Morgan, Rancho etc.



http://di-esp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/DI-Eagle-Ford-Presentation-ADAM.pdf


----------



## condog (14 October 2010)

14th October 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement
SUGARKANE FIELD OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the
Sugarloaf, Longhorn and Ipamena Areas of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas &
Condensate Field, Texas. Across Aurora’s three AMIs within Sugarkane there are now 8 wells on
production, one well drilled and fracced awaiting production, one well being fracced, three wells
drilled and awaiting frac and one well currently drilling for a total of 14 wells.
Sugarloaf AMI (AUT 10% Working Interest)
Luna #1H
As reported previously, this well was drilled to a depth of 17,370 ft, providing approximately 5,000 ft
of horizontal section within the reservoir. The well will be fracture stimulated in due course, in a
similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Ford Shale trend. This is the second post
farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI in which Aurora has participated.
May #1H
This well has now been drilled and cemented at a final depth of 17,550 ft, providing approximately
5,000 ft of horizontal section within the reservoir. The well will be fracture stimulated in due course,
in a similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Ford Shale trend. This is the third post
farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI in which Aurora has participated.
Urrutia #1H
The fourth post farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI, Urrutia #1H, has now been drilled to a final
depth of 17,411 ft. Preparations are presently underway to run and cement casing which will
secure approximately 5,000 ft of horizontal section within the reservoir. Again this well will be
fracture stimulated in a similar fashion to the other Aurora wells within the Eagle Ford Shale trend.
Direct Assets #1H
The fifth post farmout well within the Sugarloaf AMI, Direct Assets #1H, was spudded on the 30th
September 2010 and is presently starting to drill the horizontal section of the well.
Kowalik #1R
The fracture stimulation of the Kowalik #1R well was suspended having completed 14 fracture
stimulation stages following difficulties in gaining access into the well at a depth of approximately
7,500 ft. Further investigation has revealed damage to the casing although pressure integrity has
been maintained. A remedial repair is planned for the damaged casing and then the well will be
produced to sales from the existing 14 stages. Aurora will provide the market with an update when
the well has cleaned up.
Ipanema AMI (AUT 30% Working Interest)
Patino #1H
Fracture stimulation activities have commenced on the Patino #1H well within the Ipanema AMI.
This is the last farmin operation that is funded by Hilcorp Energy under the terms of our farmout
agreement as outlined in earlier announcements. Aurora will provide the market with an update
when the well has cleaned up.
Longhorn AMI (AUT 25% Working Interest)
The Turnbull #2 and Turnbull #3 wells are both now producing to sales together with Turnbull #1.
Aurora anticipates releasing 30 day production totals for both wells in the coming weeks.
In its forthcoming quarterly report, Aurora will provide quarterly production details for each
producing well.
ASX participants in the Sugarloaf AMI are:
Aurora (ASX:AUT) – 10% (post farmout)
AWE (ASX:AWE) – 10% (post farmout)
Eureka (ASX:EKA) – 6.25% (post farmout)
Aurora is the sole ASX participant in the Longhorn AMI (25% post farmout) and the Ipanema AMI
(30% post farmout).
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman.


----------



## condog (14 October 2010)

HOUSTON, Oct 13, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- 
By Ryan Dezember

   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Chesapeake Energy Corp.'s ( CHK | PowerRating) Chief Executive Aubrey McClendon said Wednesday that most significant natural gas and oil shale fields in the U.S. have already been found, and that investors shouldn't hold their breath for major new discoveries. 
"If you decided, I'm going to pass on the Barnett, pass on the Haynesville, pass on the Marcellus, and you were going to wait for the next four or five--there won't be any," McClendon said Wednesday during the company's annual meeting with analysts, referring to tight, hydrocarbons-rich rock formations in Texas, Louisiana and the U.S. Northeast, respectively. "By the end of 2011 it will be over. There won't be any basins that have escaped investigation."


----------



## kyrondgm (14 October 2010)

Buyers have dried up something hectic, and sellers are all putting up some resistance all the way up to $1.40...funny how everything has flipped on its head and everyone is jumping off the bandwagon, even given the positive valuation Euroz has put on AUT


----------



## condog (14 October 2010)

kyrondgm said:


> Buyers have dried up something hectic, and sellers are all putting up some resistance all the way up to $1.40...funny how everything has flipped on its head and everyone is jumping off the bandwagon, even given the positive valuation Euroz has put on AUT




I wouldnt fear look at the after trade today. Very strong indeed. Almost as much volume from 4pm to 4.10 as the entire day. Its a game of poker and the buyers are just playing it cool, cause they can at present. Profit takers falling into thier hands, and thats the way they want it. AUT had a greeat run and imo its definitely not its last, but unfortunately some of the profit takers have not recognized the game has changed. AUT now operates on a premium for a bloody good reason. And i cant see that premium drying up without some significant catalyst.

You find me another oiler or any company where you have proven technolgy already applied to extract value, the deal already done, the acerage already proven and the funding in place with such a simple and straight forward growth plan.
In my mind the onlyone that even comes close is SEA, but its growth platform is a little more complicated.


----------



## condog (15 October 2010)

buy sell numbers are just starting to show early signs of another "possible" run. watch with interest.


----------



## AngusSmart (15 October 2010)

I had to jump out today with a silly silly mistake at a day trade to get some quick cash 

will be looking at getting back in when i have my losses made up, and perhaps i will gain a bigger holding in aut in the mean time...

i liked the euroz report and their slander towards azz, hopefully it doesnt run untill i am back!

good luck to all


----------



## condog (15 October 2010)

Ah well looks like ya made two silly mistakes now. Hopefully you will be back in soon. I was surprised with the close, it looked like volumes where shifitng to favour a nice close..


----------



## condog (16 October 2010)

Elsewhere from Euroz - makes 1.40 seem cheap imo

ASSET VALUATION         A$m     A$/sh
Sugarkane - Sugarloaf    133      0.46
Sugarkane - Longhorn     384     1.33
Sugarkane - Ipanema      92       0.32
Exploration                     1       0.00
Corporate                     (13)      (0.04)
Unpaid Capital                2         0.01
Debt - -
Cash                             37       0.13
Total @ 10% nom          638       2.20

Interestingly too, they have cash balance not going below $20M and thats without a H211 CR


----------



## condog (18 October 2010)

Very nice, from the quarterly, things going to plan, accellerate program to 40 wells for 2011 and looking at acerage acquisitions. EKA?

● The forward plan for the remainder of the calendar year is to drill a further 4 wells across
within the Sugarloaf, Longhorn and Ipanema AMIs.
● The forward program for 2011 has now been provisionally increased to 40 wells with over
75% scheduled for the Longhorn AMI.
● Through negotiation with mineral rights holders Aurora‟s gross acreage position
increased to 55,500 acres and the net position to 10,530 acres.
● Aurora has identified potential acquisition opportunities within its area of interest in the
Eagle Ford shale and is considering a number of small, value accretive acquisitions,
focused upon increasing and consolidating acreage in proximity to its existing Sugarkane
Field interests.


----------



## philly (18 October 2010)

AUT in trading halt pending announcement re capital raising.
[this 75 character rule is nonsense] so I repeat AUT in trading halt pending announcement re capital raising.


----------



## AngusSmart (18 October 2010)

Well thats good news for me and my re entry i guess.. this may explain why that woman jumped onboard before??

time for me to pray my other move gets a rocket in its ass so i can jump ship and move back info aut

good luck to all! i hope its good news!


----------



## tonudiki (18 October 2010)

philly said:


> AUT in trading halt pending announcement re capital raising.
> [this 75 character rule is nonsense] so I repeat AUT in trading halt pending announcement re capital raising.




Sorry Philly, but I don't see anything about a capital raising in the official announcement..... RU scaremongering lol?


----------



## adobee (18 October 2010)

tonudiki said:


> Sorry Philly, but I don't see anything about a capital raising in the official announcement..... RU scaremongering lol?




go to the second page and you will see the information for which you are looking for..


----------



## AngusSmart (18 October 2010)

tonudiki said:


> Sorry Philly, but I don't see anything about a capital raising in the official announcement..... RU scaremongering lol?




Is no jokes! and now i have to post so many characters to just post up this photo..


----------



## kyrondgm (18 October 2010)

Yeah I was looking for that line too – was hoping the announcement wasn’t in relation to a cap raising, especially considering as they just finished their latest one a couple months ago!! Bit surprising really...


----------



## Sdajii (18 October 2010)

kyrondgm said:


> Yeah I was looking for that line too – was hoping the announcement wasn’t in relation to a cap raising, especially considering as they just finished their latest one a couple months ago!! Bit surprising really...




As long as we get a decent bite of the pie, I don't mind a capital raising. I was more than happy to take my full quota of the last one at 75c, and if I can top up again at $1.20 or whatever they set it at, and it helps to drill more wells more quickly, pushing my whole lot up to $2-3 more quickly, I'm all for it  After what happened with ADI I'm fairly sure they'll be keen to give us little guys the option of buying in, so I'm quietly confident it will serve us well.


----------



## condog (18 October 2010)

In the quarterly it says:

*Aurora has identified potential acquisition opportunities within its area of interest in the  Eagle Ford shale and is considering a number of small, value accretive acquisitions, focused upon increasing and consolidating acreage in proximity to its existing Sugarkane Field interests.*

This could mean close to or it could actually mean in sugarkane: ie EKA, either way i grabbed a chunk of EKA, just in case. NOte i will trade out if EKA runs on speculation.


----------



## Sdajii (18 October 2010)

condog said:


> In the quarterly it says:
> 
> *Aurora has identified potential acquisition opportunities within its area of interest in the  Eagle Ford shale and is considering a number of small, value accretive acquisitions, focused upon increasing and consolidating acreage in proximity to its existing Sugarkane Field interests.*
> 
> This could mean close to or it could actually mean in sugarkane: ie EKA, either way i grabbed a chunk of EKA, just in case. NOte i will trade out if EKA runs on speculation.




Ah, that's why I've just seen EKA jump up! I didn't think of that, you might be right. Things are looking interesting!


----------



## mir (18 October 2010)

EKA would be in a trading halt. it's more likely a land acquisition & fast tracking the drilling program


----------



## condog (18 October 2010)

mir said:


> EKA would be in a trading halt. it's more likely a land acquisition & fast tracking the drilling program




They havent made an offer. They would have to secure the capital prior to announcing an offer. It could be either, but id imagine EKA is a goner real soon anyway, even if AUT pass it up.


----------



## AngusSmart (18 October 2010)

lol, Dont say that i had to trade out of them too!!

needs to jump back in asap!! hopefully aut stays sideways for a little bit while this cap raising is on... i doubt it however if the capital is going to be used for some of the things mentioned above.


----------



## tonudiki (18 October 2010)

philly/Angus smart

 My apologies....I didn't realise there was a page 2 to this mornings announcement which spelled out that the trading suspension was re a capital raising....

  (I have rapped my knuckles with a metal ruler)


----------



## condog (18 October 2010)

just remember weve been here done all this before, and what has happened since, weve more then doubled in price. 

Nothing to worry about, managment have proven themselves to be extremely on the ball so far.

40 wells in 2011, is fantastic news, as it not only accellerates our growth and cash flows faster imo then the dilutional effect of the CR, but it also helps us secure our acerage, and most likely helps us and hilcorp stay in favour with the drill and frac crews on a full time basis operating for us with few if any delays.


----------



## Sharejon (18 October 2010)

condog said:


> They havent made an offer. They would have to secure the capital prior to announcing an offer. It could be either, but id imagine EKA is a goner real soon anyway, even if AUT pass it up.




It's a real sign of company strength, when you start labeling a take-over as a bad thing haha!!!!   (I'm aware of your thoughts regarding an AUT takeover though)

I agree though, I'm sure EKA is on alot of company's target list- yet obviously nobody has officially made an approach yet. I'd be surprised if EKA was still EKA by the mid/end of next year.


----------



## estseon (18 October 2010)

If it was EKA, I'd expect a share offer. Many common shareholders and some who'd wish to defer CGT. Why issue shares for cash at a discount and pay a takeover premium?

Also, AUT has stated that Longhorn (25% WI) is their focus, so why buy an additional 6.25% of S/L?

EKA doesn't make sense and nor does buying EME's 3% WI in S/L.

If the money is for the acceleration to the Longhorn campaign (looks like 3 rigs but they seem to have been talking about at least 2 for some time), why now? 

They've got A$38million. What's that? 20 wells at 25%WI? But the revenues from the farm-out wells will be flowing in by the end of the year and the revenues from the post-farm-out wells will flow within a month of first flow to sales. Even if they drill 3 wells a month, they'll have revenues from the January wells flowing before April and revenues from January and February by May, and 9 post farm-out wells by June. That's in addition to the Turnbull x3 wells and Ipanema (it looks like a long lateral) - leaving the S/L wells to look after the ongoing development there.

Could be wrong. But could be something new.


----------



## Sharejon (18 October 2010)

Obviously I've got no accurate Idea on what AUT plans to use the cash on, but in the last 8 months i've held them for, they've given me absolutely no reason for me to doubt them. So I definitely trust and expect that the cap raising is in the best interest of the company. I look forward to hearing the particular details.


----------



## condog (18 October 2010)

esteon i think they made it pretty clear int he quarterly that they have an accruive acqusition planned. That make EME and EKA the prime targets, or simply surrounding acerage. 

One things for sure EKA would be acruive as its a straight tuck in with huge synergies and at a good price. Its basically a per acre price which is rediculous given its derisking and development so far.

Definitely and acqusition at worst of surrounding acerage, at best, 51% of EKA or a controlling stake.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (19 October 2010)

Trading Halt? Whats this for condog?...........................///////...................


----------



## condog (19 October 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Trading Halt? Whats this for condog?...........................///////...................




in the quarterly released yesterday they have some acruive acquisistions and they are drilling 40 wells in 2011 rather then 30 as previously planned. The original 30 well plan was going to require a CR or debt facility in H@ according to AUT previous guidance. But the Euroz guidance put out last week seems to indicate they would have made it through with 20M minimum cash balance. 

We will know this arvo or tommorrow morning for sure, but several people who obviously have trade contacts are suggesting they have gone for approx $50M at 1.25 with approx 30m for acquisitions and 20m for drilling program advance.  which is fine by me. 

We may see a few weeks post CR consolidation, but when the supply side dries up off we go again is my bet.

All opinion so DYOR.


----------



## Assasin (19 October 2010)

Excuse my memory but did AUT go into a TH prior to last CP at 75c?. 
If we could get a similar outcome where we get to top up into a great company at a discount and then the SP nearly doubles over the next 4 months again then bring it on.
Condog, are your targets affected by this CR?
Cheers.


----------



## AngusSmart (19 October 2010)

condog said:


> in the quarterly released yesterday they have some acruive acquisistions and they are drilling 40 wells in 2011 rather then 30 as previously planned. The original 30 well plan was going to require a CR or debt facility in H@ according to AUT previous guidance. But the Euroz guidance put out last week seems to indicate they would have made it through with 20M minimum cash balance.
> 
> We will know this arvo or tommorrow morning for sure, but several people who obviously have trade contacts are suggesting they have gone for approx $50M at 1.25 with approx 30m for acquisitions and 20m for drilling program advance.  which is fine by me.
> 
> ...





Maybe not such a bad move done by me then.. hopefully i can get back in around 1.25 when its consolidating.. 

good luck to all, this news is great its only going to mean more $$$ later on!


----------



## nioka (19 October 2010)

Assasin said:


> Excuse my memory but did AUT go into a TH prior to last CP at 75c?.




In short, Yes. Maybe the same will happen again. It should because the shareholders supported the SPP in the main even though there were undertones that the SP would end up below the issue price. With the history of the last capital raising in mind then there is no reason for the board to do other than offer us the same again.


----------



## condog (19 October 2010)

not sure we will retrace to anything like 1.25, remmebr last time the issue price was 75c and we where trading in the 80-84c band while they unloaded with the smallest times dipping to 78c.   They dont buy at 1.25 to sell at 1.25, they will be looking to either hold or make 5-20% in most instances.


----------



## condog (19 October 2010)

Theres some suggestions by esteon and MIR elsewhere that the CR was extremely well taken up and that possible acqusition could be the surrounding pockets of land around the edges of Ipenema and Longhorn, those little rough squares and triangles of land that our leases stop others using. 

If thats the case we will obviously have strong bargaining power as its useless to anyone else. Esteon is suggesting possible values as low as $3000 which would effectively double our acerage, we then would need to farmin an operator. so it would probably increas our net acerage by 50% or more. to around 15000net acres. 

Its just a hypothesis, but my calcs on that effectively could give us 100+ net wells to AUT on a post farmin basis even if we paid $5000 per acre and got 30 acre well spacing. This with NVP of $15M per well and cost of say $7M max gives us $800M to be tucked into our bottom line over time of course. 

Could be a very very smart move by Jon. Looking forward to the post CR strategy release. Perhaps far smarter then a tuckin of EKA.


----------



## Sharejon (20 October 2010)

After reading Esteon's post earlier, if this were to be the case, then I see it as being tremendous news for AUT, and would definitely be participating in the CR (last time I didn't).


----------



## estseon (20 October 2010)

Hi Condog,

I was thinking that AUT, TCEI and Hilcorp would be buying up the infill acreage together and that AUT needed the cash to service its WI obligations rather than AUT going it alone (but I might have misunderstood). Its partners are private companies so there wouldn't necessarily be public information on their intentions. It has spoken previously about 'net acreage' infill additions. Hilcorp has been very acquisitive in the area, so it could well be leading the charge.

As you and sharejon say, this could be very good for AUT and could increase reserves value per share. They also might have a number of acquisitions lined up. With A$38m in the bank it's difficult to see the urgency otherwise. Perhaps it is just opportunistic and means that plans and strategy can be settled and commitments given to TCEI and Hilcorp.

In the excitement, nobody seems to have commented on the revealed length of Patino 1H, just 114 feet shorter than Kowalik 1R.


----------



## Sharejon (20 October 2010)

estseon said:


> As you and sharejon say, this could be very good for AUT and could increase reserves value per share.
> 
> In the excitement, nobody seems to have commented on the revealed length of Patino 1H, just 114 feet shorter than Kowalik 1R.




So really, in other words this cap raising could be PERFECTLY timed!!!!

(Keyword: could, as obviously the acquisitions have not been made public, nor are the flow-rates on Patino 1H known.)

Let's hope so.


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

If its infill acerage buying there will be delays as negotiations with each party and searches at the crowded title office will mean it wont happen over night but it will happen. The seem to have indicated in the report that they have already began several negotiations. For them to know they will be accreditive, they must also have spoken or identified roughly acceptable price points.

At $70M its straight cash onto the balance sheet and doesnt alter our EV. However they got an 8% discount on that $70M raised , ie by my clacs its only diluted us temporarily till its deployed by approx 8% of $70M approx 5.6M = approx 1.4% = approx 2c per share.


----------



## Sdajii (20 October 2010)

The announcement is out...

Did I read it correctly? Are we not getting a chance to buy any? 

Not happy, Jan


----------



## AngusSmart (20 October 2010)

Confirmed 70mil to institutional and sophisticated investors..

in two tranches, second one on share holder approval..

thats a bit sad.. perhaps the second 20 mil placement is to the share holders.

could be good to get my re-entry cracking now...


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

Its out its $70m total, $50mil now, $20m in Nov subjet to approval of shareholders. 

To fund 
accellerated drilling, acerage and working capital


----------



## AngusSmart (20 October 2010)

Well does anyone want a piece of the cap raising price now?

Jump in today! where's the bottom however...


----------



## nioka (20 October 2010)

Sdajii said:


> The announcement is out...
> 
> Did I read it correctly? Are we not getting a chance to buy any?
> 
> Not happy, Jan




I'm surprised that the directors have not seen fit to offer the cap raising to their loyal shareholders but rather they offered a cash bonus to the usual leech sophisticated #*^#* (censored). 

They are about to get an ear full from me. I suggest that others do the same. I'll be voting against the second tranche unless it is offered to shareholders that held prior to the trading halt.too.


----------



## Sdajii (20 October 2010)

nioka said:


> I'm surprised that the directors have not seen fit to offer the cap raising to their loyal shareholders but rather they offered a cash bonus to the usual leech sophisticated #*^#* (censored).
> 
> They are about to get an ear full from me. I suggest that others do the same. I'll be voting against the second tranche unless it is offered to shareholders that held prior to the trading halt.too.




You're the third person I know of who will be doing that, and hopefully many others will be doing the same.

They've given us no incentive to hold other than avoiding CGT if we bought in the last 12 months - if we don't need to be holding to take part in a SPP lots of people are going to jump out at anything much over $1.25 and just buy back in when the profit takers decide to sell. This was a guarantee to crash to price to $1.25 or close to it. Lots of loyal shareholders will be out due to a combination of practicality and principle. Surely it makes sense to keep the shareholders happy! Well, you'd think so anyway! Ugh!


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

I understand your frustrations, but i also understand exactly why they did it the way they have. Organising prospectus and SPP offers and giving time for return then processing all that costs valuable time and money and it distracts the entire organisation from its primary task of adding value. 

Im not at all upset about it and whilst i fully understand why you are i dont think a linching squad is needed or warranted. AUT mgmt have done a bloody brilliant job and if they can now turn that cash onto more reserves and additional fast tracked development, then we will be laughing all the way to the bank. 

For the sake of 3c just buy on market and try to understand why mgmt has to do it this way. It takes 48hrs and then they are on with the job of building value, instead of two months to raise the capital. They obviously have some deals ready to go and an SPP would not have been possible. 

Point taken the 20m could have been spp, but we may be able to talk them into that just nicely anyway. Tranch 2 may already be an SPP an they just havent committed themselves yet, it may be a 20m underwritting thats been organised???


----------



## martyfar (20 October 2010)

Yeah I well understand your dis-satisfaction Sdajii and Nioka and must admit to similar feelings of discontent related to the proposed SSP which disregards the investment intrests of   "US"  the loyal (and in real terms)  the "owners" of this company

I invested in this company for one reason... and one reason only,  and that was to increase the value of the capital I was prepared to put at "RISK",   it seems that now that that risk is more quantifiable ... markedly reduced in fact, my investment risk taking behaviour reaps no reward or recognition by the board of directors ,  and instead the benefits are to be directed to  opportunist sophisticated investors who have shared little in the initial risk but will be the sole benificiary's of this SSP, and all at the exclusion of long term holders of AUT stock

This decision does not rest comfortably with me


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

Also dont forget we can rave on as if the majority of the share registry is owned by mums and dads, its not, directors and CA stewart own 20%, other big instos and funds likely own about another 50-60% between them, then thers some sophisticated investors who would have had access. So your talking about doing an SPP for about 20% of the registry at a huge cost. 

PS im not a sophisticated, so have no vested interest, i just understand why managment have gone this way. And i think some deep breaths and cool heads are needed here.


----------



## Sdajii (20 October 2010)

You make some fair points. If opportunities come up and the funds are required quickly, it is in our best interests to have the directors do whatever they need to in order to strike while the iron is hot rather than miss out. If the 20M is up for grabs by folks like myself I will be happy.

And yes, I agree, anyone who wants to jump in can do so at not much more than $1.25 anyway. I topped up at $1.275 shortly after open (got that out of the way before I had my rant  ).


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

Got this email, although i didnt send him one, but i have previously corresponded with them.

Dear Sir

Thank you for your correspondence.

I can assure you that the Board of Aurora take very seriously our obligations to act in the best interests of all shareholders. 

There are a few comments I would make in response to your email.

1.       SPP –ASX Listing Rules dictate SPP (Securities Purchase Plan) is only available once in any 12 month period and accordingly is not available to Aurora at this time.

2.       Rights Issue – ASX Listing Rules prescribe the timetable for a pro-rata offer (ie Rights Issue) to take 23 business days from lodgment of a prospectus. The preparation of a  prospectus takes at a minimum several weeks to prepare. As a consequence, there is not only considerable uncertainty as to take up, but timing implications that may not meet the specific business imperatives of the Company. If underwriting is able to be secured it adds considerably to the cost of funding.

In our present circumstances the biggest issue is timing to meet our corporate objectives.  The market risk of a protracted fund raising has been clearly demonstrated by the market in the past 24 hours. 

As one of the largest shareholders in Aurora, and unable to participate in this issue, I can assure you that I consider our actions to very much be in the best interests of all shareholders.

Yours faithfully

Jon StewartExecutive Chairman


----------



## Assasin (20 October 2010)

Thanks for sharing that Condog. Sort of takes the wind out of all the uncertainty that is around today. Still like to know how this effects your targets.
As said before, I'm way overbalanced with AUT shares, just wish I had the cash to buy more.


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

Assasin said:


> Thanks for sharing that Condog. Sort of takes the wind out of all the uncertainty that is around today. Still like to know how this effects your targets.
> As said before, I'm way overbalanced with AUT shares, just wish I had the cash to buy more.




I will await some more information. But in general , it delays positive cash flow, but possibly, depending on what acquisitions are made may boos the EV of the stock. 

Remember we currently have $108M effective cash, giving an actual EV mcap of only approx $316M, not the $424 some knockers are quoting when they are saying we are over valued. 

I will say this i think there are some foolish comments made around the traps in the last few weeks about AUT being overpriced. Clearly they have little idea why we have attracted such a premium. 

Im still targeting about $1.59 - $1.70ish for end of 2010 and $3.29 +ish for end of 2011. Although i will update that once i see what the acqusition is. 

But remmebr im a mug punter and this is only an opinion. 
Euroz have quoted a current valuation and target  of $2.20 and i believe we will see new targets from in the next week or two. 

Its certainly in my opinion not a bad thing for AUT and im guessing we will see 3-5 weeks with a little too much supply, before we become tightly held again.  In the mean time sit back and watch as the traders make lunch money.


----------



## Agentm (20 October 2010)

Sdajii said:


> The announcement is out...
> 
> Did I read it correctly? Are we not getting a chance to buy any?
> 
> Not happy, Jan






nioka said:


> I'm surprised that the directors have not seen fit to offer the cap raising to their loyal shareholders but rather they offered a cash bonus to the usual leech sophisticated #*^#* (censored).
> 
> They are about to get an ear full from me. I suggest that others do the same. I'll be voting against the second tranche unless it is offered to shareholders that held prior to the trading halt.too.




hey,, did the sophisticated only get a shot at it yet again??!!!

how many times have you guys been watching this type of activity in the past?

come on guys.. you know the drill.. 

one thing you dont get is loyalty from these type of shareholders, they have different objectives, so once the objective thresholds are reached you will get real strong plateaus..  

imho, regardless of the respect the present directors thoroughly deserve, disallowing the LTH (whom are not in the soph category) from the cap raising will generate a different type of sp pressure in the very near future..


----------



## condog (20 October 2010)

Agent im confused whther your bagging or congratualating managment. Im certainly congratulating them given its gone from 78c when you where adament it was going down, to 1.48 in only a few months. I like most AUt holders are supremely happy with our investment.

Im guessing however you must be dissapointed with your exit and entry points on AUT, you called it bad at 78c and missed out on 70c growth. Personally id rather stay in and suffer whatever CR brings with it and take the growth.


----------



## estseon (21 October 2010)

I just do not understand why investors moan about not being offered shares at 125c subject to scale down when they can buy in the market at 128c (as I did) and be certain of their exposure and cash commitment immediately. That is apart from the fact that the company would be forced to squander some of the money raised in providing that opportunity.

That is apart from the technical situation explained in that email posted by condog.

This project is moving faster and faster and management cannot be expected to plan ahead in an orderly manner when a company like Hilcorp is setting the pace. If AUT wants to maintain its WI, it has to commit to the spend.

And as to a flood of profit-takers: we waited last time, in June, and nothing materialised. The Board isn't going along to the nearest share shop, it is spending time and effort finding big wallets that are there for a period of time: that's what happened last time, anyway.

Reserve judgment until we see the after-market. If you see a flood of dumping, you're right. If you don't, give them a break.


----------



## Agentm (21 October 2010)

do you recall the antics of the psychotic fish in times past estseon?

whenever a cap raising happened, which is an essential part of a small caps growth.. the bagging and criticism was melodramatic and on overdrive.. 

totally agree with you estseon.. essentially cap raisings are coming in many guises..  

this one was totally predictable, like the last, but very much unforeseen by the many following the share and investing in it..

capital requirements and what type of capital, be it sourced institutionally or gained from the share base always has its pro's and cons..

look at adi's last one, the cap raising followed on with the sophisticated unloading to the hedge fund, which gave the weight of numbers to them being in control of the awe bid.. the hostile takeover ended the moment the turnover happened, game over..

unforeseen the future events were and if history was repeated, adi would have chosen a different path obviously in that last cap raising..

sometimes a cap raising can change the course of history, and create amazing wealth for the likes of AUT which took strategic decisions that were so well timed that you have to tip your hat to the management of aut..

estseon, imho the likes of nioka, whom i respect very much, can make a shed load more upside from his trading style than anyone can from being part of a cap raising, which as you have pointed out, drives the sp down (in most cases) and you can easily get access to similar prices in any case..

each investor has an entry and exit strategy, i follow my rules and strategies, style of investing, and associated risk factors the way i chose to, and abide by the rules of insider trading, and no one (except for one bitter twisted screwball) has ever had the audacity to constantly chide, criticise and berate me and stalk me constantly for a decision i had to make due to personal reasons and reasons associated with employment on my wife.. and that connection to aut..

"bad"

what a screwed up piece of garbage that is....

lol


----------



## condog (21 October 2010)

Nice to see some green on the board this morning. Esteon, i think you make a good point about the type of investors they have been presenting too.


----------



## condog (21 October 2010)

Thats a highly offensive and untrue post agent. and i cant believe it hasnt been removed. 

On a nicer note AUt appears to be holding up nicely 1.345, definitely some more interested holders in yesterdays CR parties by the looks of it.


----------



## estseon (21 October 2010)

condog,

Don't think that any of that post is either untrue or exaggerated. Former ADI investors may recall.

It looks like a more normalised market was restored last night/today. Nothing much to be concluded from turnover. I can only see this capital raising in a positive light. If it was purely to accelerate development, that might be dilutive. But because the greater part of the cash is earmarked to acquire land that will not only add to the potential reserves but also enhance some of the acreage currently held, It is easy to see how it could be value enhancing.

When a company goes out to raise A$50m and is offered A$70m in a market such as at the present time, there must be confidence somewhere in what the Board is claiming. Boards normally seemed pleased to be able to report over-subscriptions.


----------



## nioka (21 October 2010)

estseon said:


> When a company goes out to raise A$50m and is offered A$70m in a market such as at the present time, there must be confidence somewhere in what the Board is claiming. Boards normally seemed pleased to be able to report over-subscriptions.




What that shows to me is the fact that they put the price too low and diluted more than was necessary. Another black mark, definitely not a credit to the board members.


----------



## condog (21 October 2010)

48 hours after a decent size CR , you got to be happy with the price so far. 
Also sellers, so far are holding tight, with more buyers then sellers already. Will it last?? , but its a good sign for now, that the new investors, possibly appreciate, not only the discount they got, but the quality of the stock.


----------



## AngusSmart (21 October 2010)

I want my damn re-entry!! i would also like to top up from what i had before... 

the market rejected that low pretty quickly and i think i may have missed the boat! on more than one share today..

aut's @ the bottom of the trend. will it trade sideways.... i hope so!!


----------



## condog (22 October 2010)

Its been confirmed by directors that they actually are intending to acquire surrounding acerages. These acerages are generally to small or too affected by our leases to be usefull to other drillers . As an example someone might have a parcel of land adjoining ours that is 1-3 miles long by 1-3 miles wide. Which is uneconomic to place a latteral for anyone else other then us. 

As a result these landowners are sitting ducks, about to be surrounded by wells, but getting no lease fees and no royalties. Most will be keen to join the action and as a result its a buyers market for AUT with these leases, as the landowners have little bargaining power. 

Our Longhorn and Ipenema external boundaries are approx 36 miles by my very rough calcs. They may infact be longer due to boundaries being much more disjointed then the maps show. In which case i estimate approx 23000 gross acres may be up for graps in immediately adjoining locations. In reality this figure might vary by a lot + or - 50% or more, but thats my estimate using 640 acres per sq mile. And assuming 3 mile lots. It just imo gives us a guide of the value on offer.

I think there are some that may need to lease as low as $500 per acre and others that may be highly valuable, lets assume up to $5000.

acres  10000    15000   20000   25000   30000
$1000  $10M      $15M    $20M    $25M    $30M
$3000  $30M      $45M    $60M    $75M    $90m

I think looking at the above we can see that its likely they are hoping to achieve somewhere around the $1000- $2000 average per acre with somewhere approx 20,000 acres. If they can pull that off thats a massive coup.

Even if we then farmin to hilcopr and retain 40%NRI  thats 8000net acres, it almost doubles our reserves. 80% extra reserves. And as Euroz keep saying we are likely to sure up those 3P in the next 12 months. With estimates ranging from $600M to $1B for current reserves 3P. So add another 80% to that, its a pretty exciting prospect if they pull this off.

Please note the above includes calculations which may contain errors, estimates which are very rough and opinion which is often wrong. So Do your own research, your own calculations and seek advice.


----------



## nioka (22 October 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> I want my damn re-entry!! i would also like to top up from what i had before...
> 
> the market rejected that low pretty quickly and i think i may have missed the boat! on more than one share today..
> 
> aut's @ the bottom of the trend. will it trade sideways.... i hope so!!




Proves what I have been saying. Current holders should have been given a piece of the pie and the price was too low for the sophisticated highwaymen.

At least EKA is still a good buy with the interest focussing on AUT.


----------



## condog (22 October 2010)

They couldnt give us access to this one as it was within 12 months of the last SPP.

Im sure John and the board have one in mind next time when we are eleigible.


----------



## nioka (22 October 2010)

condog said:


> They couldnt give us access to this one as it was within 12 months of the last SPP.
> 
> Im sure John and the board have one in mind next time when we are eleigible.




Sure they couldn't do it as an SPP immediately. They have to get permission to make the full issue anyway. They could then make the second portion available to shareholders. They didn't need all the cash immediately. My tip is that the directors that made the decision couldn't afford to take it up themselves so the didn't give a stuff about the rest of us. There are no excuses, it stinks.


----------



## Sdajii (22 October 2010)

I've changed my mind after taking everything into account. The option to enhance our position and they took it in the best way possible. A SPP was not an option, regardless of them wanting it or not, but they probably had in mind that people like you and me would have the opportunity to top up below $1.30 if we wished (and I for one did so). We couldn't formally take part, but we were able to effectively and more simply and conveniently get the same effect for our portfolios anyway, and even if we don't top up it looks like we're going to see our existing shares worth more than they would have been within a short time anyway. If the board had sat on their hands and done none of this we would have reason to be angry about a lack of competence and aggression.

How would you suppose they could have done a better job?

Also, the larger we are and the sooner, the more unlikely that we'll get bought out (though I'd say that's already of low concern at this stage... hopefully)


----------



## condog (22 October 2010)

I can see both sides, but the proof will be in the pudding in coming weeks. If they manage to secure plenty of acerage at low prices and massively imporve our acres/reserves in the process, im sure all will be forgiven. If they yake 8 months to spend the money, it might be questionable why they needed it all now via CR. 
Like last time lets just wait see, a 100% increase in sp generally helps a lot of forgiveness, for strategic concerns.


----------



## condog (23 October 2010)

2 new wells approved on TRCC  - kennedy 2h and some other wierd name look at image. 


Nice to see them continually adding value.


----------



## condog (24 October 2010)

A must watch video for anyone investing in oil, gas, energy industry. 




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjOFCegjoik&feature=player_embedded

From:
http://cleantechnica.com/2010/10/21...acing-oil-false-solutions-real-opportunities/


----------



## condog (25 October 2010)

For the tech heads and anyone who wants a read on some of the technicals of ther stock. Put out Fri 22nd Oct

http://www.buysellsignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_227.pdf


----------



## martyfar (25 October 2010)

regarding the rmedial work on Kowalik, there doesn't seem to be any indication in the available announcements regarding how much of the frac work was actually completed,  my understanding is  that 14 stages were completed and that they were going to make repairs then flow the well ta sales.  Does annyone have have any info re. 

Question :  ...how many frac stages were originally planned? 
                ....are the outstanding stages (if any) going to be completed ?
                .....is the flowing of the well going to be done in stages 
                     (similar to the Turnbull's) ? 
                .....when is production / flow sceduled to occur ? 

info, guesse, or predictions welcome  )


----------



## condog (26 October 2010)

According to esteon from Annual report. Points of interest well worth a look.



> Page 3 - reserves potential CONSIDERABLY higher
> Page 9 - current drilling plan (to mid 2012) comfortably secures all of the leases and these wells are expected to produce for 20 years.
> Page 10 - NSAI valuation methodology - automatic re-categorisation of reserves as drilling proceeds.
> Page 10 - 6 monthly certification of reserves.
> Page 16 - seen it before - 3p reserves over $3/share before infilling.




Also note the restricted chokes appear to be working, in particulat T#1 which did not decline from 30 -60 day flows.

Add to that the acerage acquisitions about to transpire and we should be seeing some nice growth.


----------



## estseon (27 October 2010)

martyfar

23 stages were originally planned for the 6,500ft lateral. They start at the bottom (end of lateral).

Don't think that they can do anything until they have repaired the casing.

I thought that multi-phase fraccing was the order of the day since Turnbull - can't see any difference between Longhorn and S/L in that respect. The release of 5th August merely said that it would be stimulated in the same way as all other AUT wells. The release of 17 Aug reported that the 1st phase of Turnbull had be flowing for 7 days. The release of 23 September reported that the frac of Kowalik was 'presently underway' (sic). So it is possible, looking at the dates, that the new system was applied to Kowalik.

If so, as each phase of Turnbull was about 5 stages, it could be that they have flowed the first 10 stages or so already.

My crystal ball then fades a bit.

They might not be able to complete the fraccing of the upper part of the well - they might not be able to get past the damaged zone in the vertical with whatever they need to do the necessary. But, the well is of greater diameter there, so who can tell?

Obviously, production flows can't commence until they have repaired the casing and drilled out the temporary plugs used for fraccing.


----------



## martyfar (27 October 2010)

estseon said:


> martyfar
> 
> 23 stages were originally planned for the 6,500ft lateral. They start at the bottom (end of lateral).
> 
> ...





 Cheers Estseon thanks for that information,  I hope they get things sorted out without any further problems ... it would be great ta see Kowalik up an runnin an pumpin a few greenbacks inta the company's balance sheets


----------



## Kremmen (28 October 2010)

Audio of Executive Chairman, Jon Stewart talking about the company:
http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/Display.aspx?Site=FNN55

(Gotta say it's pathetic that companies are putting out announcements in PDF format which are set up to disallow copy/paste and with instruction to "please copy this link into your browser". Yeah, typing some huge long string is so much easier than just clicking, right?!!)


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 November 2010)

AUT seems to be trending downwards... any thoughts on when there might be a bit of an upward trend? Also, when is the next report?


----------



## Sdajii (1 November 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> AUT seems to be trending downwards... any thoughts on when there might be a bit of an upward trend? Also, when is the next report?




It is bouncing around in the vicinity of the $1.25 capital raising figure. It probably won't hit it, so I'd say it's unlikely to go lower than where it is currently.

The upwards trend will start a few hours or maybe a day or two before you say "Oh! I should have been buying!" or perhaps even "I was watching them and I KNEW I should have bought some/more!"

The updates usually come every week or two, so probably a week or two after the most recent one.


----------



## Assasin (1 November 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> AUT seems to be trending downwards... any thoughts on when there might be a bit of an upward trend? Also, when is the next report?




My take on this is that there's still some fun and games happening due to the CP. In the June/July CP the SP stagnated in between 75c-85c for 6 weeks before jumping. We are still only 2 weeks since the last trading halt.

However, if you take into account what we've learnt about what the management have in mind and the value that has been added to AUT as has been well reported on this thread by others, then positive results on the SP shouldn't be far away.
My opinion only.
Would love to here from the more experienced also.


----------



## nioka (1 November 2010)

Assasin said:


> My take on this is that there's still some fun and games happening due to the CP. In the June/July CP the SP stagnated in between 75c-85c for 6 weeks before jumping. We are still only 2 weeks since the last trading halt.
> 
> However, if you take into account what we've learnt about what the management have in mind and the value that has been added to AUT as has been well reported on this thread by others, then positive results on the SP shouldn't be far away.
> My opinion only.
> Would love to here from the more experienced also.




When a company issues a large number of shares to the "sophisticated" at a discount then those shares will be sold on again to the "faithfull" ( Faithfull being the loyal shareholders thatshould have had the opportunity to buy them in the fisrt place). They made commission to take up the offer so they do not have to sell on at too much of a premium to make great profits. When these share are absorbed bu real investors then the climb back to realistic value will begin.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (1 November 2010)

Big overhang clearing today and probably for the rest of the week as the freshly issued shares find there way from "sophisticated" short term traders to longer termer holders.

Imo it'll take about 2 weeks before we see any sort of upside from here, but I'd be willing to wait. With the conclusion of this capital raising, AUT's management mentioned that this is the final capital raising for funding their share of costs in their Eagle Ford Shale tenements. This means if all goes to plan there will be no further dilution in order to get there many hundreds of planned wells online. Although it's decreased the price in the short term, and it looks bad (I should know, bought in at 1.34 a few days ago), the longer term picture is very positive.


----------



## condog (1 November 2010)

Simply put its a good buying / top up opportunity in my opinion.

Has anything fundamentally changed for the worse?  No imo.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 November 2010)

condog said:


> Has anything fundamentally changed for the worse?  No imo.




Yes,

stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.

Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.


----------



## J&M (1 November 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Yes,
> 
> stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.
> 
> Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.




You raise a good point Nun 
I sold a few of these for a good profit
nice to have another point of view 

Cheers
James


----------



## condog (1 November 2010)

Weve been down this path before when many falsly claimed the dilution at 75c was a killer. Within about 6 weeks its was al forgotten and we where up 40$. Why? Because managment where smart and deployed the cash into an advanced drilling program which actually added value to the coy.


Dilution only occurs when the capital is spent with a lesser value added to the balance sheet. It didnt happen last time and it wont happen this time imo. These guys are switched on in how to add value, they have proven it over the past 12 months against all sorts of bickering on this thread.

They are mopping up cheap acerage / reserves and accellerating drilling, both of which will imo have good upside pressure as soon as the usuall post CR selling wheres thin.

At max thier is a 9% dilution/ Thats only if they totally failed to deploy the capital in an acquisitive manner. Which they have proven last time they know exaclty how ot. And with cheap surrounding acerage ripe for the picking, this time it will imo be even better.

anyone with any doubts it might pay to go back and have a read of around pages 31-40 of this thread.


----------



## Assasin (1 November 2010)

J&M said:


> You raise a good point Nun
> I sold a few of these for a good profit
> nice to have another point of view
> 
> ...




Just curious James, just what did you think was a good point?

I believe all successful small cap stocks need to go through what Nun was mentioning. Like building pyramids, the broader the base, the higher the peaks. IMO

Keep posting.


----------



## AngusSmart (1 November 2010)

Well i got out at 1.40 and am looking for a re-entry..

My buys currently in low.. but am waiting on another share to kick up a little so i can double my original holding..

cant wait to be back in on Aut. i see i have about 2-4 weeks at these prices..


----------



## J&M (1 November 2010)

Assasin said:


> Just curious James, just what did you think was a good point?
> 
> I believe all successful small cap stocks need to go through what Nun was mentioning. Like building pyramids, the broader the base, the higher the peaks. IMO
> 
> Keep posting.




You have already made the point yourself 
Nun made the point that the shares have now gone down due to the cap raising . It may take a while for the price to recover or they may drop further before a recovery. But I think that you already know this  
As noted by other posters we the small shareholders get Zero from the Cap raising 
So I have sold a few to put an order in another stock at low price 


James


----------



## Sdajii (1 November 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Yes,
> 
> stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.
> 
> Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.




Of course, you're only pointing out the negative facts. The other side is that the money has been used to purchase extra land, which means we'll be able to drill more wells and get more oil. It's not just like we've been diluted with no benefit. If we get good value for the money we're spending which has just been raised, our situation has improved due to the capital raising, which means each share is now worth more than it was rather than less. You seem to love putting negative bias on AUT. Sure, positive bias is just as bad, but why are you so biased? Have a go at being objective with AUT.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 November 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Of course, you're only pointing out the negative facts. The other side is that the money has been used to purchase extra land, which means we'll be able to drill more wells and get more oil. It's not just like we've been diluted with no benefit. If we get good value for the money we're spending which has just been raised, our situation has improved due to the capital raising, which means each share is now worth more than it was rather than less. You seem to love putting negative bias on AUT. Sure, positive bias is just as bad, but why are you so biased? Have a go at being objective with AUT.






> Yes,
> 
> stock is further diluted Plus a large increase in actual market cap because of placement once released.
> 
> Not getting into a discussion on fair value on this stock merely pointing out some facts.



Geezus i just supplied facts.
i couldnt care less about  AUT other than its  a  regular trading stock.

Grow up i merely pointed out the bleeding obvious

LOL you guys are funny when someone puts an unbiased FACTUAL statement on here thats not drooling over this midcap plaything that seems to have turned into a love affair for some here


----------



## Assasin (1 November 2010)

J&M said:


> You have already made the point yourself
> Nun made the point that the shares have now gone down due to the cap raising . It may take a while for the price to recover or they may drop further before a recovery. But I think that you already know this
> As noted by other posters we the small shareholders get Zero from the Cap raising
> So I have sold a few to put an order in another stock at low price
> ...




See what you mean James,
Hope you bought back in today when the sp hit the cr price. So really the small shareholders didn't miss out on anything but rather had an opportunity to do exactly what you did and pick up a few dollars. Wish I did. Next time.
Oh I wish I had more money.
As I've posted before, just need to stick these in a drawer for a while and let management do their stuff.
Keep posting.


----------



## nioka (1 November 2010)

The difference between the last capital raising and this one is that the first one was offered to shareholders that, in the main, bought and held. This time it went to the "sophisticated" that buy at a discount to the issue price (commission?) then sell for profit, this floods the market. They have no interest in whether or not the money will be used to drill wells or buy new territory. They are not thinking long term. Their thinking "small short term profit equals large annual percentage profit".


----------



## Sdajii (1 November 2010)

nioka said:


> The difference between the last capital raising and this one is that the first one was offered to shareholders that, in the main, bought and held. This time it went to the "sophisticated" that buy at a discount to the issue price (commission?) then sell for profit, this floods the market. They have no interest in whether or not the money will be used to drill wells or buy new territory. They are not thinking long term. Their thinking "small short term profit equals large annual percentage profit".




I agree, but hopefully a fair few of them will be purchased by people like me. I bought in at $1.275 soon after the announcement (and might top up further if I can scrounge up enough money in time), and mine will be firmly held.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 November 2010)

nioka said:


> The difference between the last capital raising and this one is that the first one was offered to shareholders that, in the main, bought and held. This time it went to the "sophisticated" that buy at a discount to the issue price (commission?) then sell for profit, this floods the market. They have no interest in whether or not the money will be used to drill wells or buy new territory. They are not thinking long term. Their thinking "small short term profit equals large annual percentage profit".




Fair post Nioka

I doubt you will get a tirade of emotionally charged angry posts at you tho


----------



## condog (1 November 2010)

Lets grow up the fact is its a bllody good stock, with bloody good managment, that has made a lot of people in here a lot of bloody money. And theres nothing substantially that has changed to think it wont continue at present.

We saw all this **** last time there was a CR and it proved the dommsayers incredibly wrong. If they want to make fools of themselves twice let them.

One only has to llok at the early commentry on this stock and the sp growth of this and SEA and the proof is in the pudding. If you think thats overly positive then more fool you.

Has anything changed fundamentally that makes the stock worse then last week or the week before???


Perhaps they prefer no advanced drillinjg program, no opportunistic acerage acquisition at discount rates. ????  I truly wonder about the motives and intellect of some people??? 
No , some may argue dilution, but that shows no understanding of the strategic direction or stratecig history of the stock.

Those that stood firm and held last time during the post CR avolanche of crap on this thread where duly rewarded.

You want fact thos thing has gone from 22c to 1.48 inside 12 months for bloody good reason. On the back of a well funded, solid growth plan with world classs acerage and a world class operator. And its just done a Cr to ensure solid growth for the next 12 months ...

Thats the facts, anything else is pure noise.....


----------



## Joe Blow (1 November 2010)

I'm not in the mood for this rubbish tonight. 

Any personal attacks, insults or attempts to provoke other thread participants will have serious consequences.

Back on topic please.


----------



## nunthewiser (1 November 2010)

This was my last chart posted here at around last my last analysis here.

im outta here.............

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story


----------



## condog (1 November 2010)

Looking forward we still have the following facts
1. World Class Acerage
2. A World Class Operator
3. World Class Liquids Ratios
4. A successfully 100% increase in the 2010 drilling program almost completed
5. A 25% increase in the 2011 funded and planned
6. Funding to acquire more world class acerage at opportunistic prices
7. Funding to see the 2011 program through 
8. Cash flow projections to see minimal capital raising requirments going forward
9. Relatively high oil prices
10. Fantastic well flows 
11. A fantastic reserves report
12. Brokers with Price targets significantly above the current SP
13. A follow on strategic plan to ensure growth for 2011 to 2017 
14. A plan to ensure acerage leases are held and reserves are upgraded
15. A rapidly growing company that has secured its place in the ASX300 and is attracting serious broker attention.
16. Established AUT as the premium exposure to On-Shore unconventional oil and gas plays in the US
17. Developed and negotiated infrastructure to deliver prodcut to sales
18. Board have refrained from robbing equity for overly expensive remuneration and bonus plans
19. Grown shareholder value immensly as is thier goal
20, Managed to use organic growth to deliver high ROE for shareholders

Plus a new well application called Kennedy Jones Unit just lodged.


----------



## condog (2 November 2010)

*Oil up* on US growth figures, China manufacturing growth figures and Saudi comments. A nice combination for AUT


> Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up $1.52, or 1.9%, at $82.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a two-week intraday high of $83.86. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange recently increased $1.20, or 1.4%, to $84.35 a barrel.
> 
> Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi suggested at a conference in Singapore that he was comfortable with a price range of $70 to $90 a barrel for crude. The comments appeared to broaden a previous range of $70 to $80 a barrel that he had said would balance the needs of oil consumers and producers. Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil exporter.
> 
> "When you've got the most important person as far as the global oil trade is concerned changing his tune ... the market will latch onto that



http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101101-712830.html

*Ernst & Young quarterly report reveals an industry in flux*

With gas prices depressed, investors are looking for gas plays with high liquid content, such as the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Granite Wash. ...............

http://www.ogfj.com/index/article-d...esearch_analysis/ernst-__young_quarterly.html

*ConocoPhillips ramps up Eagle Ford position*

It appears Conoco, know where the money is...


> HOUSTON, Nov. 1 -- ConocoPhillips plans to sharply hike capital spending in the Southeast Texas Eagle Ford shale play in 2011.
> 
> The investment level, although not yet approved, likely will be $1-1.5 billion in 2011 compared with $300 million in 2010, management said last week. The 2011 amount is for drilling and completions, not to add acreage.
> 
> The company holds more than 240,000 net acres southeast of San Antonio in Live Oak, Bee, Karnes, DeWitt, and Gonzales counties and expects to be running 10 rigs by the end of 2010.


----------



## condog (3 November 2010)

Still drilling away, still fraccing away, still lodging applications and adding value every day. Still under priced and still good value imo.


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

Crude-oil futures settled nearly 1% higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion bond purchasing  program which painted a good outlook for the U.S. economy. Oil for December rose to $84.69 a barrel on the NYMEX.

LONDON - World stocks recovered some ground Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy growing at a steady but slow rate of 2% up from 1.7% last quarter.

*Heed Australia and brace for global acceleration*
The world looks very different from down under. While the U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to conjure up growth and inflation, Australia is worrying about an excess of both. The Reserve Bank of Australia sees "faster than trend" global growth and "very high" prices for Australia's commodity exports. That is why the central bank made its first interest-rate increase in six months yesterday. Investors should beware. The West's cheap money is pumping up global growth and inflation, starting with Australia and the East, but likely to turn up soon closer to home. 


In U.S. manufacturing, output has now expanded for 17 months and employment has been growing for 11 months. ...


Does the world need more money sloshing around? No is probably the answer. But it's almost certain to come 

The world, unquestionably, is split. Australia is on its faster side. 

Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/Heed+A...acceleration/3767699/story.html#ixzz14G2hRmfp


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Leading Edge      
By Tom Whipple     
Wednesday, November 03 2010 01:01:22 PM  
*Do you remember the furor over drilling for oil in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge a few years back?* The whole country was up in arms. At various times some 50 to 60 percent of Americans favored drilling in the area as they were told this would result in lower gas prices.

Last week the USGS lowered its estimate of the amount of oil that could be extracted from the region all the way from 10 billion barrels down to less than one billion, making drilling in the area uneconomical. By the way, the amount of crude being pumped down the Alaskan pipeline now has fallen from 2 million barrels a day (b/d) when the pipeline first opened back in the 1970's to about 600,000 b/d in recent weeks. The trouble is that when the flow of oil falls below a quantity estimated to be 200-300,000 b/d (some say 500,000) the line will have to be closed as there will simply not be enough hot oil being sent down the pipeline to keep it from freezing in winter.


Now combine that with this story.

BP not rushing back into Gulf after rising spill costs take shine off return to profit
By Jane Wardell (CP) – 1 day ago

LONDON — Oil company BP PLC shied away from spearheading any industry rush back into the Gulf of Mexico as it revealed Tuesday that the cost of its devastating oil spill has jumped to $40 billion — taking the shine off a return to profit in the third quarter.

But he said the company would "step back" and look at its equipment and rigs in those waters before attempting to jump back in, suggesting it may turn to its ventures elsewhere in the world to provide growth for a while.

And combine that with this....

OPEC Members Seek $100 Oil to Counter Dollar Weakness
October 15, 2010, 9:35 AM EDT
 More From Businessweek
Creating the OPEC of Fertilizer 
China Non-Manufacturing PMI Falls to 60.5 in October 
Blinder Says Fed Policy Makers ‘Making It Up as They Go Along’ 
Hedge Funds Cut Gasoline Bets Most Since 2006: Energy Markets 
Clinton Says She Told Congress U.S. to Restore Aid to Honduras 
Story Tools
e-mail this story print this story 1diggdiggadd to Business Exchange By Grant Smith and Fred Pals

(Updates with comment from Bernanke in 11th paragraph.)

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel.

And combine that with this....

01 November, 2010

The Peak Oil Debate Is Over 
By Dr. James Schlesinger 

If something cannot be sustained, it will eventually not be sustained… ultimately it will shrink.

Secondly, you cannot produce oil unless you first discover it (a contribution by Colin Campbell). 

Third, a resource that is finite cannot continually have its production increased.

What is the evidence?

First, we remain heavily dependent on super-giant and giant oilfields discovered in the 50s and 60s of the last century… I might add, of the last millennium. Only rarely in recent decades have discoveries equaled production. Mostly, it’s been one barrel discovered for every three barrels produced.

Second, old super-giants like Burgan in Kuwait and [Cantarell] in Mexico have gone into decline earlier than had been anticipated… and going into decline have been Alaska, the North Sea, western Siberia and the like.

Third, while it is not yet “Twilight in the Desert” (as you may have read) still we are well into the afternoon, even in Saudi Arabia. Even the Ghawar oilfield is increasingly hard to sustain. 

Fourth, in 2004 we experienced our first demand-driven price spike, as opposed to the previous price spikes driven by supply interruptions. We still operate at about the level of production capacity of 2004.

Next, given projected decline curves running from 4 to 6 percent, and the projected increase in demand during the next quarter century, we shall require the new capacity equivalence of five Saudi Arabias.

Even the International Energy Agency, which previously had been sanguine, now suggests that we can no longer increase production of conventional oil in the course of this decade.

Combine that with the political instablity between Isreal and Palestine / Gaza tensions / Iran

Then combine that witht he recent news of 2% Growth in the USA, China soft landing and Indias rapid growth, raising interest rates and ......

Then add the devaluation of the USD from the printing press, causing all commodities to be relatively more expensive to the dollar.....

You then combine that with the security costs of producing oil in Iraq, and the greenhouse / environmental and financial costs of the Canadian Tar Sands which are uneconomical below $70 something dollars, North Korea, Sino Japanese teritorial disputes and you have a nice hedge to hold oil prices high. .


The fact is the days of drilling a vertical well in texas and pumping it to sales at $10 a barrell are long gone.  We are now forced to go deeper, use more complicated well technology, more human experience and go into politically unstable and dangerous areas with geographical distance issues , environmental sensitivity and the days of cheap oil are over as we know it.


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

Nice pick up this morning, buyer numbers look a bit healthier now. This will test what the sellers are up to, whether they are out for a small quick profit, or whether they are in for the big ones.


----------



## noie (4 November 2010)

condog said:


> Nice pick up this morning, buyer numbers look a bit healthier now. This will test what the sellers are up to, whether they are out for a small quick profit, or whether they are in for the big ones.




Awesome updates once again Condog , i and others appreciate it immensely. 


(still holding AUT + EKA)


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

noie said:


> Awesome updates once again Condog , i and others appreciate it immensely.
> 
> 
> (still holding AUT + EKA)




Glad to help out. 

A nice finish to i must say, some good volume and it appears those pesky instos and alleged sophisti-cats have chosen to hold for more. With the close on the high, buy and seller spreads looking healthy. 

Looks to me like early signs that new highs for AUT are not too far away. Especiually if that oil price continues to rise.


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

Three really good headlines out for AUT in the last 24 hrs

1. World bank upgrades China GDP growth forcast to 10%+

2. US economy confirmed as growing (too slow for Bananke and Obama's liking) but faster then last quarter. 

3. India raised interest rates due to inflation concerns

This is huge positive news for energy demand the two biggest nations in the world and the worlds biggest economy and second biggest energy user confirmed in growth phases. 

Looks like we can expect decent oil prices in the forseeable future - all other factors being equal.


----------



## AngusSmart (4 November 2010)

condog said:


> Glad to help out.
> 
> A nice finish to i must say, some good volume and it appears those pesky instos and alleged sophisti-cats have chosen to hold for more. With the close on the high, buy and seller spreads looking healthy.
> 
> Looks to me like early signs that new highs for AUT are not too far away. Especiually if that oil price continues to rise.




Nooo! please dont say this! i am almost back to parity on my trade and want back in within the next few weeks! 

It was a nice day for Aut however! looking forward to my entry again soon!


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Nooo! please dont say this! i am almost back to parity on my trade and want back in within the next few weeks!
> 
> It was a nice day for Aut however! looking forward to my entry again soon!




Gus  hope im wrong for your sake but today had a certain similarity about it to times gone by. Plenty of buyers and sellers beginning to show a desire for higher prices, it doesnt seem to take long for AUT to rocket when those trends appear. 

There will be other opportunities on pull backs. Just remember it has nothing to do with price its about value. 

ie it can sometimes be better imo to buy at 1.75 then 1.5 depending on time frames of course and what your doing with your cash during the opportunity period. ie if at 1.5 it only has 17 wells, yet reaches a pullback of 1.75 with 28 wells on line, all other factors being equal, 1.75 is a better buy.

but Gus do share, what the hell are you in that has been better value then AUT at 1.26


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (4 November 2010)

Yes even though it's frowned upon to cross promote, I'm interested too, if you don't want to risk it send me and ol' ConDog a PM. Are you talking about SEA by any chance?

If not, no idea what you're on about Angus.


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Yes even though it's frowned upon to cross promote, I'm interested too, if you don't want to risk it send me and ol' ConDog a PM. Are you talking about SEA by any chance?
> 
> If not, no idea what you're on about Angus.




With out a doubt SEA is an absolute cracker. Id be all over it if CGT wasnt such a dog of a double tax that has me unable to make decisions i would otherwise make.


----------



## rez_erection (4 November 2010)

Few bits of news should be coming out in the next few weeks
Patino #1H - fracced, being cleaned up and flowed as per last weeks announcement, should get initial flow rates
May #1H - frac started 21/10
Direct Assets #1H - drilled, cased and cemented waiting on frac
Couple of wells that have been drilled/spudding. Should be good before end of years with hopefully 3 new wells flowing.

Also thanks to all that have posted, being only new and learning about the market/industries this has been a lot of help and great profit!


----------



## condog (4 November 2010)

rez_erection said:


> Few bits of news should be coming out in the next few weeks
> Patino #1H - fracced, being cleaned up and flowed as per last weeks announcement, should get initial flow rates
> May #1H - frac started 21/10
> Direct Assets #1H - drilled, cased and cemented waiting on frac
> ...




Yeh i think with two frac crews on the job and the post 3 phase frac delays over we should now basically have an announcment at least every roughly every two weeks of some combination of IP's flow updates and spuds. There should also be a well application imo roughly every two to three weeks. The last was Kennedy Jones Unit ealry this week. 

IMO watch for an early warning sign of faster growth when the well apps speed up, imo that may be a sign the third rig is about to turn up.

The other huge impending news will be the cash flow once hilcorp costs have been recouped, which im guessing will be within the next 4 weeks. That imo will be a catalyst for a rerating for those that use cashflow and forward cashlow valuations.

dont forget to grab some peanuts popcorn and coke when shopping next. Peanuts for the monkeys, popcorn and coke to watch AUT make the transition to cash flow positive producer.


----------



## condog (5 November 2010)

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil prices finished higher Thursday after the Federal Reserve's decision to pump $600 billion into the financial markets pushed the dollar to new lows. 

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up $1.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a fresh six-month high of $86.68 in intraday trading. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange recently gained $1.61, or 1.9%, at $88.18. 

The dollar has been in a steady downturn since late August, when the Fed first raised the prospect of a second round of quantitative easing. On Thursday, it hit its lowest level in 10 months against the euro following the Fed's announcement a day earlier that it would buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds over the next eight months in a bid to kick-start the economy. 

Quantitative easing weakens the dollar because the Fed must print money to purchase Treasurys from banks, increasing the money supply. A weaker dollar, in turn, boosts oil prices by making crude cheaper in other currencies.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101104-722311.html


----------



## condog (5 November 2010)

If they are not tree shakers with   those early buys online, then i think theres a good chance we might hit a new high today. 

That lead from the US is very strong, on the back of renewed confidence, really good china stories, great india news and rediculously upbeat RBA comments about a "coming expantionary shock" in Feb Mar 2011.

AUT has a habit  of setting new highs on Friday, and with that indicative opening of 1.42, its not got far to go. AUT trend of mon morning updates tends to allow some to park the weekend in AUT or so it seems imo.  6c could be a big ask, but yesterday surprised me with the buyer strenght and seller discipline so soon after the CR, so im thinking anything is possible.


----------



## AngusSmart (5 November 2010)

condog said:


> Gus  hope im wrong for your sake but today had a certain similarity about it to times gone by. Plenty of buyers and sellers beginning to show a desire for higher prices, it doesnt seem to take long for AUT to rocket when those trends appear.
> 
> There will be other opportunities on pull backs. Just remember it has nothing to do with price its about value.
> 
> ...





Ha! i'd hardly say its better thank Aut.. Alk is the stock in question.. i'm close back to my buy in on that so looking to get out and back in but this time split with sea and aut.. however i have found my way back into Aut at the current time, the tax man was very kind to me and i have somewhat a good entry with some cfd leverage...

I've set up a guaranteed stop below 1.20 to reduce my risk (hardly see it heading back that way.. hopefully i will have that in today or monday.


----------



## condog (5 November 2010)

Wow 1.45 indicative open and good volumes.

The buy sell spreads just jumped from just over 1.2 : 1 to over 2:1 in the last half hour. 

I think we can expect some serious action today.

On a seperate note i emailed MIR and Nokia yesterday saying i had read the EKA quarterly and from looking at the cash flow and bank balance i thought a CR was imminent. Well today they have announced a CR. Strange how gut feelings come right. Im charging $25 if youd like your palm read. lol/


----------



## condog (5 November 2010)

over 1M in the first 6 minutes, I think some one wants in....  be watching for the late move this arvo imo. As they look to fill thier position.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (5 November 2010)

Yep, looking good! Adding to my position too  

It' slooking like it could break its' 52 week high


----------



## Sdajii (5 November 2010)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Yep, looking good! Adding to my position too
> 
> It' slooking like it could break its' 52 week high




If they open at $1.47 with good volume this soon after a capital raising at $1.25 I'd be surprised if it takes long to top $1.485. Maybe today, if not probably next week.

EKA in a trading half for capital raising now! Goodness, it's all happening!


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (5 November 2010)

Now if only we got a placement in EKA at a big discount to current share price, as a sophisticated investor/big brother investor.

Maybe I'm just dreaming?


----------



## Dukey (5 November 2010)

Well - after being in ADI yonks ago and waiting waiting - and then more recently watching AUT & EKA - I finally got back in at $1.275  the other day. Thankful i did and probably the best timing I've pulled off for a long time!! 

These prospects always had great potential - but finally things are really  starting to ramp up for the remaining players and should be in for an interesting year with the accelerated development plans.
.... bring it on... AUT. 
take me where ADI promised me!
-d


----------



## nioka (5 November 2010)

Dukey said:


> Well - after being in ADI yonks ago and waiting waiting - and then more recently watching AUT & EKA - I finally got back in at $1.275  the other day. Thankful i did and probably the best timing I've pulled off for a long time!!
> 
> These prospects always had great potential - but finally things are really  starting to ramp up for the remaining players and should be in for an interesting year with the accelerated development plans.
> .... bring it on... AUT.
> ...




Long time no see. Good to see that the oldest poster on the Sugarloaf story never lost interest. ADI did promise a lot but failed us in the end when we needed their support which was disappointing when you consider the support the true believers gave them. Hopefully we will still hear the sound of that elephant stampede.


----------



## condog (5 November 2010)

Welcome to AUt Dukey

yeh id be bitterly dissapointed if AUT managment dumped and ran like ADI did, just as the real value was about to be untapped. 

A good day for all small oilers except EKA and AZZ nokia. SEA up nicely, SSN rebounding , AUT up 5% on very good volume. Setting up for a nice week.  AZZ in trading halt till 11th Nov, EKA in trading halt for CR.

My tip there will be an opportunity for cheap EKA shares next week.


----------



## prgudula (5 November 2010)

Stoxline AUT update

AUT.AX   As of: 16:10

Last  1.43   Change  0.07 (5.15% ) Volume  2,792,938 Day's Range 1.38 - 1.47

Prev Close 1.36  52wk Range  0.24 - 1.49 Open  1.47


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (5 November 2010)

Hey PR what's that site you got the image from, I keep seeing that site being used for technical analysis (my major weakness in investing), if you'd post a URL or send it to my PM box I'd be thankful .


----------



## prgudula (5 November 2010)

hey ParleVouFrancois, here you go

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis
yes, gives me snapshot whats happening


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (5 November 2010)

Ahh looks quite detailed for a mechanical version of technicals, obviously each indicator doens't always mean the same thing for different shares (this much I've gathered from basic technical knowledge), but at least I know what I'm supposed to be looking at (moving averages etc), thanks pr.


----------



## chiasm (5 November 2010)

Hi everyone, 

I've been following the posts and they have been very helpful. I'm new to the game and bought in earlier this week @ $1.29 because things sounded good. I'm still learning so am finding all this interesting. Hopefully I'll be able to contribute a bit more eventually...
Thanks
T


----------



## Mister Mark (5 November 2010)

Firstly thank you to all for your thoughts, education and advice an this and other threads.

Am i correct in saying that not so long ago AUT was a 4 star buy, not a strong buy on stoxline as it is now?

Once again thank you to all Condog in particiluar and a good future for all holders.


----------



## condog (5 November 2010)

Mister Mark said:


> Firstly thank you to all for your thoughts, education and advice an this and other threads.
> 
> Am i correct in saying that not so long ago AUT was a 4 star buy, not a strong buy on stoxline as it is now?
> 
> Once again thank you to all Condog in particiluar and a good future for all holders.




cheers

yeh it fluctuates, obviously depending on a number of factors, ive seen it two stars in the last few weeks, but the key thing is its adding value every day. Really depends on your time lines, if your trading it you want to look for the pullbacks and monitor the techs and graphs, but its so far for many of us proven to be a good buy and hold as well. 

SEA is the other cracker at present - i dont hold, but wish i did. 

EKA will have buy all over it on its lows int he next week or two after its CR aswell, alll other things being equal.


----------



## Dukey (5 November 2010)

nioka said:


> Long time no see. Good to see that the oldest poster on the Sugarloaf story never lost interest. ADI did promise a lot but failed us in the end when we needed their support which was disappointing when you consider the support the true believers gave them. Hopefully we will still hear the sound of that elephant stampede.






condog said:


> Welcome to AUt Dukey
> 
> yeh id be bitterly dissapointed if AUT managment dumped and ran like ADI did, just as the real value was about to be untapped.
> 
> ...




Thanks fellas.  Glad to be back in - esp. with the way things are heading. Pretty flat out with work these days so I may not be around much. 
But echoing mister mark - thanks to all the regular posters who've made the various sugarloaf and related threads so educational. I've certainly learnt heaps over the years of occasionally dropping in to see whats happening, and I'll be somewhere around.. lurking  ... here and there till AUT and EKA suck their prospects dry i guess! 
g'luck all -d


----------



## Assasin (6 November 2010)

chiasm said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> I've been following the posts and they have been very helpful. I'm new to the game and bought in earlier this week @ $1.29 because things sounded good. I'm still learning so am finding all this interesting. Hopefully I'll be able to contribute a bit more eventually...
> Thanks
> T




Chiasm,
          Well done, your timing is good. I think you hit the nail on the head, that you've been following these posts. I did the same.
           I was lucky enough to get in at 30c and then again at the cap-raising but what got me was that I learnt more about AUT on this thread than any researcher or adviser could tell me. I'm still not experienced enough to contribute anything worthwhile, however I think the good guys on this thread respect where everyone is at and are awesome educators.
          If I was doing this myself, I would have been out a long time ago. Instead, I'm in for a long time yet.
    Good luck


----------



## condog (6 November 2010)

Assasin said:


> Chiasm,
> I learnt more about AUT on this thread than any researcher or adviser could tell me. I'm still not experienced enough to contribute anything worthwhile, however I think the good guys on this thread respect where everyone is at and are awesome educators.
> If I was doing this myself, I would have been out a long time ago. Instead, I'm in for a long time yet.
> Good luck




Glad to have helped, but please do rememebr I, Nokia, Agent, Esteon, PRGudula, MIR and the other long term contributors are not advisors and not qualified to give advice. 

Having said that i have always learnt more from reading, trying, making mistakes and discussing it with other investors, then any broker has ever taught me. But just like all walks of life when there are commissioned sales people 80% are poorly skilled money hungry salespeople and 20% are great brokers and advisers.

Guys dont feel because your got less experience you shouldnt post or cant contribute. Its a discussion and if you post what your thinking people will sure tell you when thye think your wrong. If your willing to post and be complimented and told when someone disagrees, if your willing to hang it all out their in the name of learning, you will certainly learn much faster. 

So please feel free ta add your opinion whether youve been investing for a day, a month a decade or a lifetime.

Theres nothing wrong with debate and differences of opinion either, thats healthy for intelligent decisions. The problem arises when people play the player instead of arguing with the opinion.

So please if you want to accellerate your learning put your opinions forward for all to discuss and analyse on all threads not just this one. And don think your wrong just cause someone else disagrees, but use that discusssiont to enhance your understanding.


----------



## Sdajii (9 November 2010)

Sdajii said:


> If they open at $1.47 with good volume this soon after a capital raising at $1.25 I'd be surprised if it takes long to top $1.485. Maybe today, if not probably next week.




Sometimes I just love being right about stuff! 

I was expecting to break our high of $1.485 this week and quietly confident about $1.50, but wasn't expecting $1.55 by Tuesday morning!

Congratulations to all holders! :bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:jump:


----------



## Assasin (9 November 2010)

Great day for AUT.
New high on great volumes so soon after a CR.
Sellers drying up.
All good news ahead. Watch out for the dancing banana's.


----------



## AngusSmart (9 November 2010)

Crazy afternoon on Aut,

i got back in on a small 10,000 shares around lunch.. and its shot up to 1.58 already  happy days!

hopefully i can get in again in a few weeks and get back to my original holding. perhaps it may fall a little with the next lot of c/r shares after the meeting..

good times ahead!


----------



## chiasm (9 November 2010)

AUT seemed to have a good day today, hopefully more to come in the next few weeks...


----------



## condog (9 November 2010)

Nice high 1.59 and 1.58 close , congrats to the faithful. Theres plenty mor in this baby yet in due course. Great news on Ipenema with 30% interest and 553 on the smallest choke.... got to love that at todays oil prices.


----------



## Mister Mark (9 November 2010)

And would i be corect in saying the 3rd biggest volume ever in one day? now thats got to be good, congratulations to all, i for one am CHEERING:dance::dance::dance:


----------



## condog (9 November 2010)

Id imagine that todays announcment on Ipenema triggered some brokers and analysts, watchers of AUT to think or upgrade AUT's EUR by a lot, given Ipenema wasnt exactly factored into a lot of analysts numbers.


----------



## Sdajii (9 November 2010)

Tomorrow will be an interesting day. There will be profit takers for sure, but today's activity and announcement will bring AUT up on some new radars too. You'd think the majority of profit taking from the "sophisticated" investors would have been done by now. The rest of the week is going to be great to watch!

I'm very glad to be holding, and glad to have topped up with every spare dollar I had just a couple of weeks ago at under $1.30 

Would it be crazy to suggest that we probably won't need any further capital raising now? With oil prices as they are we must be paying off Hillcorp awfully quickly, and money will be flowing in, but will it be enough to pay for enough drilling, or will we need a bit more capital to drill as quickly as we'd like?


----------



## condog (9 November 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Tomorrow will be an interesting day. There will be profit takers for sure, but today's activity and announcement will bring AUT up on some new radars too. You'd think the majority of profit taking from the "sophisticated" investors would have been done by now. The rest of the week is going to be great to watch!
> 
> I'm very glad to be holding, and glad to have topped up with every spare dollar I had just a couple of weeks ago at under $1.30
> 
> Would it be crazy to suggest that we probably won't need any further capital raising now? With oil prices as they are we must be paying off Hillcorp awfully quickly, and money will be flowing in, but will it be enough to pay for enough drilling, or will we need a bit more capital to drill as quickly as we'd like?




I think we are pretty well funded now for the forseable future. The recent CR was done to fund advanced drilling with the intent of makeing sure we could hold all leases. 

Cash flow will imo be flowing within 21-40 days or so and will imo then nullify the need for any further CR, (with the exception of and acquisition of EKA or similar. 

Others will disagree and thats fin, but thats my


----------



## estseon (9 November 2010)

"Tomorrow will be an interesting day. There will be profit takers for sure, but today's activity and announcement will bring AUT up on some new radars too. You'd think the majority of profit taking from the "sophisticated" investors would have been done by now. The rest of the week is going to be great to watch"

Could be right but this result represents a first step on the path to de-risking Ipanema representing about 13% of the net acreage. The company deserves a mild re-rating just because of that.

Some of the shares appear to have been placed with professional fund managers. They will be required to top-slice as the share re-rates because of in-house or regulatory rules on proportionate exposures of the fund managed to individual securities. That is very different from dumping or profit-taking.

But that is not necessarily a negative for the share. It will provide liquidity in the market and will make the share more attractive to buyers as well.

The progressive de-risking of the company's assets is changing it from a 'blue-sky' speculative stock into (hopefully) a high-growth producer. We might be prepared to sweat it out for multiple returns but many ordinary investors buying into collective investment schemes are looking for respectable and sustained growth. Returns and risk go hand in hand. Those who shy away from the kind of brutal risk that we have had to stomach will earn more moderate returns but there is a big market out there for the kind of returns that AUT can still deliver.

So, don't worry about selling by institutions. It is bound to happen as the share re-rates and will have little or nothing to do with perceived prospects. It will be portfolio management by professional fund managers.


----------



## condog (9 November 2010)

Great points esteon and to continue on that trend. The instos will each unload portions as they see fit, and as they reach there own targets the good thing is the higher the sp goes the further the insots who might have been considering selling, raise there expectations. 

Looking at the buy sell spreads its pretty evident now that many holders are not prepared to sell at any price in the ofreseeable future. 

I for one have dates rather then prices constraining me and im certain many Australian private investors would be in the same boat due to CGT rules. 

One of the dilemas with stocks that go ballistic and show signs of continuation of that growth is that the CGT becomes abhorant once the stock has grown significantly until the magic 12 months has ticked over.

Personally i think AUT rpoved up a good percentage of its reserves and acerage today as a first step. Obviously a point not ignored by many.


----------



## AngusSmart (9 November 2010)

Euroz seem pretty happy with the latest bunch of results.

just a small extract..



> Today’s result is highly encouraging noting the implied oil:gas ratio (OGR) of 140bbls/mmscf and anecdotal evidence of THP and reservoir performance there-in.
> We had anticipated – noting Ipanema’s proximity to the ‘dry-gas window’ – that the OGR would likely be in the order of 50-80bbls/mmscf noting off-set wells to the south-east.
> At up to twice this expectation, we view the economic potential of Ipanema to be even more viable.




Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??


----------



## condog (9 November 2010)

AngusSmart said:


> Euroz seem pretty happy with the latest bunch of results.
> 
> just a small extract..
> 
> ...




They have either been on the TRRC site or they have priveledged information which the market does not recieve. Its common practice as thier broker.


----------



## mir (9 November 2010)

AngusSmart
"Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??" 
553 bbls/d div 4.08 mmscf/d = 136 bbls/mmscf


----------



## AngusSmart (9 November 2010)

"553 bbls/d div 4.08 mmscf/d = 136 bbls/mmscf"

Yer i got that number too.. on one of my trials of all the numbers available


----------



## condog (10 November 2010)

mir said:


> AngusSmart
> "Can someone tell me how they come up with the 140bbls/mmscf??"
> 553 bbls/d div 4.08 mmscf/d = 136 bbls/mmscf




Rounding, im assuming.

Euroz and im guessing a number of other analysts had factored in Ipenema to be more in the dry gas window. Euroz had estimates of 50-80 bbls/mmcfg and have since upgraded thier EUR's and valuation to $2.12

Other brokers would have done similar, and fund managers that are on the ball would also have either calculated upgrades or recieved upgrades from thier teams.

The Euroz update also mentions the value acruive acqusitions they are presently chasing, so they say expect further upgrades as they come through. All other factors being equal that is.


----------



## AngusSmart (10 November 2010)

condog said:


> Rounding, im assuming.
> 
> Euroz and im guessing a number of other analysts had factored in Ipenema to be more in the dry gas window. Euroz had estimates of 50-80 bbls/mmcfg and have since upgraded thier EUR's and valuation to $2.12
> 
> ...




The last euroz report dated 28/10/10 still has the target of 2.12 but was a buy at 1.34...

good times ahead. cant wait to clear up some more funds and plonk them in.


----------



## condog (10 November 2010)

Indicative opening 1.60, but more importantly the sell side is nice and tight with only 231K for sale. 

Could creat some nice sustained upward pressure .


----------



## condog (11 November 2010)

From WSJ.com

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Oil futures hit a fresh* two-year high *Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Energy reported oil and fuel stockpiles declined last week, continuing a nearly two-month slide from 27-year highs. 

Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery was recently up $1.14, or 1.3%, at $87.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. *The contract hit an intraday high of $88.02, the highest level since October 2008. *
Brent crude oil on the ICE futures exchange added 83 cents, or 0.9%, to $89.16 a barrel. 

Oil inventories fell 3.4 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 5, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. *It was the biggest week-to-week drop in crude-oil stocks since July 9. *Stocks were seen rising by 800,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. 

From Google News
*Oil is going to US$300 a barrel, peak oil coming soon  *National Post (registration) - ‎Nov 5, 2010‎
Charles Maxwell, a former energy exec who is now an analyst at Weeden & Co., says "peak oil" will drive oil prices to $300 a barrel over the next decade. ....

*Trade Deficit in US Shrinks as Exports Climb to Two-Year High  *Bloomberg - Timothy R. Homan - ‎4 hours ago‎
A shipping container is off-loaded onto a truck at the Port of Houston Barbours Cut Terminal in Houston, ... 

All good news for AUT


----------



## condog (11 November 2010)

Two new well apps approved on TRRC today for hilcorp in Karnes

Georg (EF)
Foster Unit

two simultaneosu well apps, are they time managing better or is this the first sign of an accelleration in the program, ramping up for early 2011

Note on the performance options for those staffers. I tend to think performance rights should require performance, those benchmarks are pretty conservative imo.


Also from euroz report

"Additionally, successful pursuit of strategic, value accretive acquisitions in a strong Buyers’
Market will add to share price momentum. Our analysis suggests that $/acre valuations
and EV:reserve metrics should support an Enterprise Value of at least $650-1000m (vs
$410m currently) at current commodity prices and development assumptions.
BUY with a valuation and price target of $2.12/sh."


----------



## Agentm (11 November 2010)

for those of the nicer long term posters and holders here that are not hostile towards the likes of me, this article is worth looking at imho

KKR Invests $400 Million in Hilcorp Energy Property 

best of luck


----------



## J&M (11 November 2010)

Agentm said:


> for those of the nicer long term posters and holders here that are not hostile towards the likes of me, this article is worth looking at imho
> 
> KKR Invests $400 Million in Hilcorp Energy Property
> 
> best of luck




Your comments are always welcome on any Share 
I am a long term holder but took some profit 
Thanks for the post 
James


----------



## Agentm (11 November 2010)

J&M said:


> Your comments are always welcome on any Share
> I am a long term holder but took some profit
> Thanks for the post
> James




lol

unfortunately, thats not the case.. as you are all aware..

lots of great news comes my way from texas, but there is little desire to pass it on with the way things are..

glad to hear you appreciated the research over the many years..

plenty more shares in the making coming through..(keep an eye on txn in the future  lots going on in the background)

cheers


----------



## AngusSmart (11 November 2010)

Thats a pretty old article Mr agent  no dig at you or anything!

i am sure this went thru in june or august..


----------



## rockhound308 (11 November 2010)

condog said:


> Two new well apps approved on TRRC today for hilcorp in Karnes
> 
> Georg (EF)
> Foster Unit
> ...




Looks like Foster Unit is a new Ipanema well (east of Franke) but George(EF) is in the top corner of Karnes, probably  not part of AUT's interest.


----------



## condog (11 November 2010)

Agentm said:


> lol
> 
> unfortunately, thats not the case.. as you are all aware..
> 
> lots of great news comes my way from texas, but there is little desire to pass it on with the way things are..






Agentm said:


> for those of the nicer long term posters and holders here that are not hostile towards the likes of me,






Agent we all appreciated your news

Our fallout started at post #570, where you tried to make me look silly, which if you now read you will see i was very right.

What we didnt appreciate was the huge and sudden change in sentiment for no apparent reason, that has subsequently proven to be very wrong.

I simply posted what most in here thought at the time, judging by thier supportive PM;s at the rime.  So how bout dropping the snide comments quoted above, and post about the stock instead.


----------



## condog (12 November 2010)

There was a possibility that Ipenema may have had oil characteristics. Hence more expensive processing / lifitn / transportation and potentially lower flows.

I think the fact its flowing high pressure gas & condensate with excellent liquids was a very good thing and one which derisked that acerage somewhat.


----------



## condog (12 November 2010)

I think right now we are in a very very strong position. We have Euroz placing a $2.12 Valuation on AUT 2 days ago, we have a sp of $1.60 is with and EV  of around 400M, we have $108 million cash, with not only our accellerated drilling program, but now to compound that we have an acredditive acqusition plan going to drive growth. 

In the horrible event we attracted a TO offer it would be a minimum of 30%, being approx 40c per share minimum, taking us beyond the $2 mark. 

We have hilcorp doing an amazing job, not only drilling and fraccing, but also in securing frac crews and rigs when many others are posting constant delays in getting equipment and personell on sight. 

Oil prices are high and likely imo to stay there. 

Plus we are literally days or weeks from being a CASH FLOW POSITIVE producer.

Theres a hell of a lot of positives on this stock and its imo just starting to rerate from high risk explorer to a moderate risk producer. 

as such i have upped my PE to 16  in my projected cash flow models giving new valuations of:
End of 2010   $1.81    End of 2011    $4.56
Rational CVN has a long term PE of 16. AUT has significantly higher growth and projected higher growth, hence 16 should be an acceptable figure.

Disclaimer : Note these are only personal projections for discussion. do not rely on them or expcet them to come true. In the past i have been fairly accurate with them, but that in no way indicates they will be accurate in the future. Seek good expert advice and do your own research.


----------



## condog (12 November 2010)

My $4.56 valuation is entirely based on all factors being equal a $77 net oil price, $3.75 gas price, 40% tax and royalties. 

This is simply my forward cash flow projection using the 2010 wells ati thier costs and flows, then the 40 2011 wells extrapolating the 2010 average flows. Ive used an average flow of 450bocpd and 1.5mmcfg
could be wrong but ive been spot on about 6 times now. Time will tell.

As you say though if oil price tanks, which imo is unlikely at this stage, terrorist strikes, US tanks etc all bets are off. Its only a guide if things proceed to plan and in line with the current environment.

Got to say i copped a lot of flack in some circles for predicting 75c when i did, then 1.59. I felt as if many thought i was mad, but ive done this long enought to have a reasonable idea how to do it. 

I think a PE of 16 is reeasonable.

The $4.56 target sounds obscenely high, but when you factor in for most of this year we had a part time frac crew, delays, experimentation, 1-2 rigs at best and next year we are starting with 3 a full time frac crew then going to two frac crews and 4 rigs its feasable that we can have twice the growth of 2010. This year we went from 11c to 1.67 so far, with 6.5 weeeks to go for the year. I think its completely feasable we can expect all other factors being equal to more then double our sp when we go from 20 - 60 wells. Technically it should almost tripple, but declines will inhibit a true trippling. However reserves upgrades, acerage acquation and derisking could easily mean we significantly more then tripple. A double is around $3.30 a tripple is around $4.90

Even if you said AUT is now over valued which i dont agree. But lets assume it was and should be about $1.30. When we go from 20-60 wells for reasons outlined abouve we technically should approx tripple or more. Thats $3.90 in just over 12 months. 

Using my cash flow model I have to reduce the PE to 13 to get a roughly 3.90 forecast. So its on the cards imo.


This is only opinion, could be very wrong. A lot of variables can and will change. DO NOT make investment decisions on this it is for discussion purposes only.


----------



## justiceotp (12 November 2010)

Hey Condog using your valuations for end of 2010 and 2011 what do you have it valued at for end of FY 10/11 (end of June 2011)

For the record I am a happy long term holder of AUT and also am a holder of EKA, SEA and SSN (Also had ADI)


----------



## condog (12 November 2010)

justiceotp said:


> Hey Condog using your valuations for end of 2010 and 2011 what do you have it valued at for end of FY 10/11 (end of June 2011)
> 
> For the record I am a happy long term holder of AUT and also am a holder of EKA, SEA and SSN (Also had ADI)




Sorry , as AUt is setting its programs for calandar years i too have set up my cash flow projections to model clandar years. 

However you could very roughly extrapolate that half the growth would be added by june 30 give or take about 20c imo.


----------



## condog (13 November 2010)

In response to a question about projected growth back in september:







condog said:


> Yeh approx 8-10c per month for 2010 imo then approx 12 - 15c per month in 2011, when the third rig turns up, based on, current growth and projected growth to mmet consensus forcasts.




I now think the remainder of 2010 8-12c month on average. 

2011 10-20c per month with 3 rigs and 1 frac crew, and up to about 25c per month with a 4th rig and 2nd frac crew. The acerage acqusitions announcments and the reserves upgrade also has the potential to be price catlysts imo. Could be wrong so DYOR.

Note this is only a personal projection. Its based on opinion , not facts. It assumes all other factrs remain equal and they wont. Its for discussion purposes only, DO NOT ACT on this opinion. SEEK expert advice and DO YOUR OWN calculations and research.


----------



## condog (13 November 2010)

http://blogs.forbes.com/christopher...il-companies-to-invest-380-billion-this-year/
*Report: Oil Companies To Invest $380 Billion This Year*
Oil and gas companies will spend $380 billion finding and developing fields this year, according to a new report from analysts at Wood Mackenzie. This amount is $19 billion higher than in 2009 but still 10% lower than the historical high of 2008. The consultancy thinks spending levels could recover to 2008 levels by 2012 or 2013.

Leading growth areas in the U.S. are the Marcellus, Haynesville and *Eagle Ford shale plays*. The Marcellus will likely see capex triple to $11 billion a year. Worldwide, Australia is already enjoying record spending levels and should see capex triple by 2013. Iraq will be another area of massive growth in investment. The laggards include Canada and Russia.





http://fuelfix.com/energywatch/2010...ility-to-help-bring-eagle-ford-oil-to-market/

*Enterprise Products Partners has purchased a 150-acre site in Southeast Houston to build a crude oil storage and shipping hub to feed oil from the Eagle Ford shale to Houston area refineries.*
The terminal is being constructed to provide refiners in the Houston area with access to growing production from the Eagle Ford  play in South Texas. It will be on a parcel of land near the Southeast corner of the intersection of Beltway 8 and SH 3…

Wait, isn’t the Eagle Ford supposed to be a natural gas play? Sort of.

There’s actually a fair amount of oil in those formations as well, so with natural gas prices low, companies are eager to pump up the oil output.

Crude will reach the terminal via Enterprise’s Rancho Pipeline, located approximately three miles northwest of the new terminal, and two, 24-inch diameter pipelines Enterprise plans to build. The terminal would then reach major refiners in Texas City, Pasadena/Deer Park, Baytown and the Houston Ship Channel via the Seaway Pipeline.


http://fuelfix.com/energywatch/2010...le-ford-pipeline-in-agreement-with-sm-energy/
*Kinder Morgan is expanding its Eagle Ford Shale shipping pipeline in a 10-year deal with producer SM Energy Co.*In May, Kinder Morgan and Houston-based Copano Energy announced that they were entering into a 50/50 joint venture to provide gathering, transportation and processing services to natural gas producers in the Eagle Ford Shale play.


http://fuelfix.com/energywatch/2010/07/02/enterprise-expanding-eagle-ford-pipeline/
*Enterprise Product Partners said earlier this week that it’s expanding its natural gas and natural gas liquids pipeline system in South Texas and Mont Belvieu, Texas.*The company will install 350 miles of pipeline, build a natural gas processing facility and add an NGL fractionator at its Mont Belvieu complex, Oil & Gas Journal said.
The work will be done by early 2012.


http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2...tural-gas-potential-us-government-is-missing/
*China and India see what the US doesn’t - the potential of natural gas*
This has been a busy week for US natural gas. It started off with the US signing an agreement to help India exploit its shale gas resources during President Barack Obama’s visit to that country. The agreement mirrored one the US had signed with China some time back to also help that country make the most of its shale.

These are both striking agreements because they demonstrate that other countries see tremendous potential in natural gas. And yet the US government has failed to appreciate the expertise and experience that launched the global shale gas scramble is in its own backyard. The US gas boom has generated so much capacity in America that prices have collapsed.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/7287329.html
*Chevron joining shale spree*
evron Corp.'s $4.3 billion deal Tuesday to acquire Atlas Energy finds yet another major oil company betting big that huge deposits of natural gas found in U.S. shale rock formations will be a key part of the global energy mix in coming years.

.......

In recent months, BP, Shell and other Western oil companies have acquired smaller companies or formed joint ventures to gain entry into U.S. shale plays including the Barnett and Eagle Ford Shales in Texas, the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana and the Marcellus.


----------



## condog (13 November 2010)

*OCTOBER 26, 2010, 7:26 P.M. ET.
KKR Looking Across The 'Big Six' Of Shale .*
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. announced another shale-gas investment, this time bringing a pair of advisers the firm has worked with on some of its successes in the space. 

The firm is teaming up with a pair of former Jefferies Randall & Dewey bankers on a joint venture to pursue exploration and production companies in large unconventional-resource plays in North America. 

Claire Scobee Farley and David Rockecharlie are the bankers behind RPM Energy LLC, KKR's partner in RPM Energy Partners LP. Farley was co-president of Jefferies Randall until August 2008; Rockecharlie was co-head of the firm until June 2010. Farley and Rockecharlie officially launched RPM--named after the abbreviation for "revolutions per minute"--in September, after working since early summer with KKR. 

"We told them of our observation that the capital markets--public and private--would have a hard time funding all of the drilling that would be necessary; that it would be a great opportunity to get invested in a number of projects," Farley said. 

Besides the large acreage opportunities--where being ahead of strategics is the name of the game--KKR and RPM believe there is value to be offered to small-to-medium sized drillers, according to Marc Lipschultz, global head of KKR's energy and infrastructure business. 

"We think we can be a special partner to them in terms of capital, plus the skill and knowledge of Claire and David, plus the capabilities of KKR in building businesses," Lipschultz said. 

KKR has already scored big in 2010 on shale, selling its stake in Marcellus Shale natural gas explorer East Resources Inc. as part of a $4.7 billion acquisition by Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Jefferies advised East Resources on that deal as well as KKR on its $400 million investment this year in a joint venture with Hilcorp Energy Co. to develop the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. Earlier this year, the firm also invested in E&P company Premier Natural Resources LLC. 

RPM Energy Partners will look to invest in the "Big Six" of shale plays: the Barnett, Marcellus, Haynesville, Woodford, Fayetteville and Eagle Ford shales. In addition the company will look at the Bakken Shale and other unconventional resource plays, assets that may involve horizontal or fracture drilling. 

"We're looking for assets that have some liquids, or pure dry gas plays where we can do drilling at a more moderate pace so we don't put loads of capital to work at low [natural gas] prices," Farley said. Rockecharlie added the company was looking for good geology that would be likely to result in declining costs and increasing recoveries per well over time. 

RPM Energy Partners would like to be in three to five resource plays a year from now, worth anywhere from $100 million to $200 million and higher. 



http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101026-721788.html


----------



## Assasin (13 November 2010)

Thanks for these Condog,

 Re: AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://blogs.forbes.com/christopherh...ion-this-year/
Report: Oil Companies To Invest $380 Billion This Year
Oil and gas companies will spend $380 billion finding and developing fields this year, according to a new report from analysts at Wood Mackenzie. This amount is $19 billion higher than in 2009 but still 10% lower than the historical high of 2008. The consultancy thinks spending levels could recover to 2008 levels by 2012 or 2013.

Leading growth areas in the U.S. are the Marcellus, Haynesville and Eagle Ford shale plays. The Marcellus will likely see capex triple to $11 billion a year. Worldwide, Australia is already enjoying record spending levels and should see capex triple by 2013. Iraq will be another area of massive growth in investment. The laggards include Canada and Russia.


http://fuelfix.com/energywatch/2010/...ith-sm-energy/
Kinder Morgan is expanding its Eagle Ford Shale shipping pipeline in a 10-year deal with producer SM Energy Co.In May, Kinder Morgan and Houston-based Copano Energy announced that they were entering into a 50/50 joint venture to provide gathering, transportation and processing services to natural gas 

  I've been trying to get my head around all of the development that's going on around this area and the time frames we are talking about (10years) , then considering the market caps of all the players in the region like AUT, EKA, TXN, SEA etc how easy would it be for a oil major to come along and sweep the floor with a takeover.
  Putting all the valuations together of the minor players, plus a premium, it would be chicken feed to a major.
  I would certainly not like to see that happen especially in the next 12 months but what can anyone do about it?
  This is just a concern I have, all opinion only.
  Cheers,

  Good to see your still purring along Noika.


----------



## condog (14 November 2010)

AUT looking good on the charts as well. A 125% trend line for the 12 months. This trend shoul steepen upon arrival of a 3rd and 4th rig imo. A steeper trend for the last 4 months. Right now its snapped back up through its previous resistance and the bollengers will tighen while its holding its current level, Which could?? trigger a move sharp higher late in the week to early next week imo.  

From a fundamental perspective we are awaiting IP, 30day results, new spuds and most importantly CASH FLOW news. Theres also the news on acerage acquisition which will hopefully begin to flow sooner rather then later.


----------



## condog (15 November 2010)

New well app - Yosko Unit

Thats 3 well apps on 11/11/10
Definitely seems like a new trend, previously 2 wells approved close together which was recently Kennedy 2H and Sienkiewics Unit, but never 3. 

If the well apps are indicative of the anticipated drilling pace, then we are about to see an accelleration imo.


----------



## condog (15 November 2010)

*Mainstream Media and Investing Public Just Awakening to Enormous Value of Unconventional Oil Assets*

I had a discussion a couple of weeks ago with a gentleman who was evaluating a company that I consider to be an excellent investment opportunity. The company has spent the last 3 years locking up large acreage positions in unconventional oil plays. This fellow when valuing the company only considered the current booked reserves of the company, despite the fact that this company has only booked reserves on about 15% of its acreage. In other words no value was assigned to almost 500,000 acres that have no booked reserves, but acreage that could be sold today for $5,000 to $10,000 per acre.

That doesn’t make any sense to me, as the success rate by the company in question in drilling out their acreage over the past 3 years has been 99%. These are large resource plays, with virtually no geological risk.

I believe that the investing public today is just starting to awaken to the fact that there is a lot production that is going to be coming from unconventional oil plays in the next 10 years and that the companies that have locked up these resource plays have a large amount of value hidden in currently undeveloped landholdings.

There is no company that gets less respect for its highly valuable undeveloped acres than Chesapeake Energy. Both in unconventional oil and gas plays. In the past 3 years Chesapeake has entered into the following joint venture transactions:

Sold a 20% interest in their Haynesville undeveloped leases for $3.16 billion.

Sold a 25% interest in their Fayetteville undeveloped leases for $1.90 billion.

Sold a 32% interest in their Marcellus undeveloped leases for $3.37 billion

Sold a 25% interest in their Barnett undeveloped leases for $2.25 billion

Sold a 33% interest in their Eagle Ford undeveloped leases for $2.16 billion

Add those up and they received proceeds of $12.84 billion. If you calculate the implied value of the portion that CHK has retained the total is $36.6 billion.

CHK has a $31 billion enterprise value. The value of just the undeveloped acreage is more than this. CHK is the largest natural gas producer in the United States, so the obviously have sizable developed reserves as well. .........


.....Karnes County lies at the heart of the Eagle Ford Shale, a thick layer of dense, oil-and-gas-bearing rock that sits between 5,000 and 11,500 feet beneath the surface. The formation stretches across more than nine counties, but Karnes, population 15,000, has the most rigs drilling for oil: 13 in October, according to RigData, a company that publishes land rig counts. 

.....

Read the rest at:
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=114043

*
Energy Sector Outlook Positive for Investors *

*Trends in the energy sector remain positive. We think current conditions and trends have created one of the best investment environments for us in years:*
Last month the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2010 global oil demand forecast upward, to 86.9 million barrels per day from 86.6 million barrels per day. This will be an increase of 2.0 million barrels per day over year earlier levels.

......Analyst Forecasts - The Financial Times had an article last week that noted Goldman Sachs does not think $100 a barrel oil is “as unlikely as it sounds.” Goldman predicts oil will break into triple digits by the end of 2011. The forecast is based on higher than expected global demand, inventory declines, and a reduction in global spare productive capacity.......






http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24272.html


----------



## mir (15 November 2010)

from Patersons

we continue to highlight the ongoing growth and value in the Eagle Ford shale with lower risk exposure to AUT likely to yield ~50% upside over the coming 12-months


----------



## condog (15 November 2010)

mir said:


> from Patersons
> 
> we continue to highlight the ongoing growth and value in the Eagle Ford shale with lower risk exposure to AUT likely to yield ~50% upside over the coming 12-months




Hi MIR

Thats very very conservative. I for one would sell if thats all we could get. Going from 20-60 wells, turning our 3P into 1 and 2P and securing additional acerage will surely yeald much better growth then 50%. 

Not shooting the messenger MIr, i appreciate you posting every bit of info, but not sure i agree with Pattersons on this one.


----------



## mir (15 November 2010)

condog
i agree, we all know Patersons are not up to speed with AUT but  thought I'd post it anyway.


----------



## condog (15 November 2010)

mir said:


> condog
> i agree, we all know Patersons are not up to speed with AUT but  thought I'd post it anyway.




yeh it just does not add up. 
If your derisking a company and acerage, converting 3P to 1 and 2P, acquiring acerage at a discount and going from 20-60wells in 12 months, a 50% increase would be pathetic. Too much risk and capex for too little a return. Pattersons have lost the plot it seems.


----------



## condog (17 November 2010)

The International Energy Agency has released its World Energy Outlook for 2010, forecasting for the first time that the global crude oil production peak that so many have long feared, has in fact already been reached””more than four years ago. International demand has since fallen slightly thanks to a recent global economic downturn, but once economies around the world have recovered, the IEA says daily crude production alone will no longer be sufficient to meet their needs.

http://www.hybridcars.com/news/international-energy-agency-says-peak-oil-began-2006-28912.html


----------



## condog (18 November 2010)

Im using a purely cash flow projection model. I understand your concerns about PE, but at the end of the day using a PE multiple gives you an answer similar to an NPV valuation with a 10th of the work. 

Any valuation model has human error elements and whilst your concern is the use of PE, if i was using NPV model then the RR and ROE would be the issues for concern and they could make it even less accurate. They are subjective also. 

I have taken into account tax and royalties totalling 40% in my calcs. Ive used 450 bocpd and 1.5mmcfg as my average applied to each well for 12 months and a 30% decline on that figure for year 2. I used to put in the exact flow of each well but found it easier going forward to use an estimated average, so whilst 450 is generous for Kennedy or Weston, its super conservative for Rancho and Morgan. 450 is close to the average.

PE can vary significantly and yes it is subjective, hence why i often mention multiple PE targets. My projected yr 2010 cash flow equivelents for 20 wells are
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$3,606,656
$3,606,656
$3,606,656
$4,327,988
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$1,442,663
$4,327,988
$4,327,988
$4,327,988

The numbers vary due to the working interest of each lease. 1.44M are the Sugarloaf wells Longhorn at 25% and Ipenema at 30%. Then when i totaled them i take of 40% tax and royalties to give a total projectedcash flow of $28,131,919 multiply that by your PE, then divide it by your number of shares to get a projected sp. 

Then i also do a second valuation where i add in 10% of the cash flow of the wells for the following year. To get a second higher valuation. I fully tax it then i get its valuation. 

The valuation i quote in here is the average of the two. Oil price used is $77 and gas at $3.25. I havent used an exchange rate as i have assumed all earnings are in USD and 100% reinvestment of capital, plus parity for cash held. 

Right now using some peoples analogy because of the heavy number of drilling in Sugarloaf, the actual weighting is an average of 16% NRI. If you assume they have 20 wells at 16% interest then thats 3.2 net wells at end of 2010. Each well on average produces $14.4M annually totals 3.2 * $14.4 = 46M. Tax that at 40% gives 27.6M after tax and royalties. Use a PE of 13 = 13 * 27.6 = $358,000,000. But since we are holding $108M cash you need to add that to this giving an estimated mcap of $466,000,000.

No share issued = average approx 320000000
466000000/320000000= $1.50 

Which is damn close to my valuations current sp and you have to remmeber this method places no value at all on reserves, JV deals, derisking, reserves, reserve upgrades, acerage accreditive acqusitions etc. How much you discount the cash flow and how much you build in for those other items is subjective. 

On a stock that is as young as this in its new life growth phase is always going to have subjective items included in its valuation. However i would rather enter with a valuation , then with blind faith. Many would argue that you cannot even value a stock like this as its earnings are un proven. Whilst literally that is true, in reality those people miss these opportunities as thier principals stop them being able to apply a value.

If you went and bought WOW or JBH today you would buy it paying more then its worth, because people are prepared to pay a premium for those shares, almost all of the time. Rarely can you buy those shares at discounts to thier intrinsic value unless there is a real concern in the market place. 

Yet here is AUT trading imo at less then its current cash flow valuation. 
so using that analogy and applying some of next years expected income to it, if i add $7M to its earnings for 2010 which imo is 10% of the 70 odd million i expect it to earn in 2011, then i get a valuation for 31 Dec 2010 of $2.25.
If i say well thats rediculously cheap they are going to easily safely surpass that figure, so apply 20% which is $14M, i get a Dec 31 valuation of $2.69. 

Interestingly my old man ran through the valuations using the intrinsic valuation method and none of my figures and came up with a Dec 31st 2010 valuation of $2.37 and a Dec 2011 valuation of $3.70 to $4.90 depending on RR. 

Im not saying either of these are right or will occur, but they show the potential growth on offer. 

PLEASE Do Your Own Research AND SEEK EXPERT ADVICE AS WE COULD BOTH BE HORRIBLY WRONG.


----------



## condog (19 November 2010)

True 5 new well apps is definitely a sign imo of an impending accelleration is imminent. euroz seem to think they have secured thier second frac crew.

The combination of all these well apps which is unprecedented and Euroz saying they have the second frac crew as you say is definitiely a price catalyst, especially once IP and 30d flows start gathering pace.

New well apps approved include 
Georg  11/11
Yosko 11/11
Foster 11/11 
As previosly reported here, but then 
Carter Unit 16/11
PMT Unit 17/11
and Barboza Unit 17/11

If thats anything to go by with the new pace then we can begin to expect new highs very soon imo. Likewise on the back of the 170DJIA rise and the fading of the storm inthe teacup Irish situation things look very bright for the near future imo. 

esteon in regard to your points
"
2. We await news of land acquisitions, which mean increased reserves

3. We were promised a new certification of reserves in January 2011."

Yes the land acquisition news needs to start flowing asap, not to drive price, but to prove mgmt did the right thing by going a CR rather then an SPP at a later date.

Id dearly love the new reserve cert to be on the back of our new acerage. I think it would be a waste of money to get a reserves cert followed by acerage announcments. 

In regard to TO offers i cant see anything realistic approaching and i certainly hope if one does arrise we can ferociously defend it. I cant see Jon rolling over like a dog for the sake of 40c or so.


----------



## fflintoff (20 November 2010)

condog said:


> True 5 new well apps is definitely a sign imo of an impending accelleration is imminent. euroz seem to think they have secured thier second frac crew.
> 
> The combination of all these well apps which is unprecedented and Euroz saying they have the second frac crew as you say is definitiely a price catalyst, especially once IP and 30d flows start gathering pace.
> 
> ...




You appear to be replying to a post that doesn ´t exist! Probably too much copy & paste. Cheers Hic!


----------



## condog (20 November 2010)

fflintoff said:


> You appear to be replying to a post that doesn ´t exist! Probably too much copy & paste. Cheers Hic!




Yep true i was replying to a person from here in another media area, and hence thought the reply may have been relevant to folks reading in here as well.


----------



## condog (22 November 2010)

Not much discussion in here of late, but fact is they are still fraccing, drilling, putting in applications and hopefully making some accreditive acqusitions of surrounding acerage.

New well apps approved include 
Georg 11/11
Yosko 11/11
Foster 11/11 
As previosly reported here, but then 
Carter Unit 16/11
PMT Unit 17/11
and Barboza Unit 17/11

Those well apps show imo an impending accelleration fo the program, which will only add value faster. Must be news soon on flows and ip's plus a new spud or two. 

I have written to Jon and asked whats happening re acerage, im not expecting a reply as it would breach ASIC, but hopefully it remind him we want to know. I mentioned its important that the acerage be purchased soon, otherwise a CR could have been suplimented by and SPP. Lets wait see.


----------



## condog (23 November 2010)

A lot of very very good news for AUT holders to consume this morning.

T3 Fantastic with 864 bpd and 2.46 mmscf/d on a restricted choke over the 60 day period

T4 The drilling final depth being reached in 13.5 days. If this is replicated going forward it should dramatically improve NPV of wells.

Sienkiewicz #1 - Operations are underway at the Gilley #1H well which is within the Longhorn AMI.

The Franke #1H 3,000 ft of horizontal section. Ready for frac. Short due to directional probs. 

The Turnbull #2 well is severely choked back whilst H2S readings are monitored and thiscontributes to the production figures of 440 boepd equivelent

May#1 835 boepd equivelent

Luna #1H well is complete and this well commenced cleaning up to
sales on the 18th November 2010.

Direct Assets #1H (10% WI) The fracture stimulation of this well has commenced

Kowalik #1R (11.65% WI) The remedial operations on this well have been successfully carried out

Operations are underway at the Gilley #1H

Recent Aurora wells have successfully utilized a restricted choke setting to improve the production profile decline curve.


Then we have apps in and approved for 9 others :

Urrutia Unit
Kennedy 2h
Kennedy Jones Unit
Georg 
Foster Unit
Yosko Unit
Carter Unit
PMT Unit
Barboza Unit


----------



## condog (26 November 2010)

*Even the International Energy Agency expects peak oil now 
Jeff Rubin
Globe and Mail Update *Posted on Wednesday, November 24, 2010 6:18AM EST



The optimism typically found in the International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Outlook report is strangely missing this year. Instead, the IEA is taking a far more sober perspective on the world’s oil-consuming future due to our ever-greater reliance on costly unconventional oil sources. 


Output from currently producing fields is projected to fall precipitously, looking ironically like the steeply declining trajectory of peak oil’s Hubbert curve. (I say ironically because the IEA has historically denied the existence of peak oil.) According to the report, by 2035 three-quarters of currently operating oil fields won’t be producing anymore. In fact, current fields are only expected to account for less than one-fifth of that year’s production. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...y-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/


----------



## kyrondgm (26 November 2010)

some big trades just gone through, i have no idea what they mean though, exercise of options?!


----------



## AngusSmart (26 November 2010)

kyrondgm said:


> some big trades just gone through, i have no idea what they mean though, exercise of options?!




Somebody moving their holding from on portfolio to another i think. they should move it to mine.. i wouldnt argue!


----------



## condog (29 November 2010)

Excellent excelllent news on two fronts, hilcorp are developing a new pipline and processing facility and Luna doing 884boepd on a highly restricted choke. 

Great news for AUT


----------



## fflintoff (1 December 2010)

Inference by agentm on HC that Hilcorp has endangered its wells by applying faster drilling techniques. The remark may have been prompted by well known sour grapes as it doesn ´t appear to be borne out by results?


“Hilcorp had a problem in more than one well, they have also used sub standard pipe and connectors and had plenty of problems in losing wells, and bad frac operations and also busted pipe issues, like many who use that cheap chinese steel.

txn have opted for superior steel and connectors.. 

wait for a result before comparing txn to other operators. you always encounter bad crews, or problems during a drill, but your really have to question why there is the need to use sub standard steel in wells and taking high risks like losing a well for the want of speedy completions”


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (1 December 2010)

I was under the impression that Hilcorp was one of the more professional outfits doing fraccing jobs North America? Maybe he's just spreading disinfomation, but if one was to check, what would the result of "substandard chinese steel" (I loled at the Chinese reference) be exactly? A stopping of production? Surely AUT would have announced any production halts at it's wells, and surely "substandard chinese steel" has no impact on completion time and instead just impacts on the costs? I'm quite confused.


----------



## condog (1 December 2010)

Its at this stage completely  unverified rumours and should be treated as such.

Some people have proven to have very questionable motives and you should use your best judgement to try and look beyond the words on the page. 

Raises more questions about the need to defame AUT and thier motivations then it does about Hilcorp. 

TXN has been pumped and cross promoted across several threads in several forums, and now its pulling back as its been ridden hard and so far nothings changed for the better. Perhaps that may be some fodder that should be considered in any such evaluation of sources.

Its another classic case of some people putting too many hopes on something that still has high risks and little certainty.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (1 December 2010)

Just was in the AZZ chatroom, there's someone over there slagging AUT and how it's "unlikely to ever return 500 million to shareholders". Probably just sour grapes but he makes reference to it in almost every post (sushi if you're interested in setting him straight with some facts ConDog). Haters gonna hate I guess.


----------



## WRONG'UN (1 December 2010)

Well I've read most of the 1700 odd posts on this thread, along with all the significant company announcements, and I bought some yesterday at $1.50.
I'm more interested in what AUT are doing, and how successful they are, than in heresay and innuendo. I'm also watching the oil price, and the AUD/USD rate - this information is factual.


----------



## condog (1 December 2010)

yeh poor old AZZ holders have had a tough 9 months going backwards, looking in dire straights, then they got thrown a massive life raft and all the shareholders kept leaping from the decks. They would feel pretty angry at present and yes some or a lot of that anger and blame will get misdirected as jealousy.  Let them be, they will live and learn. 

Sushi loves to have an argument.


----------



## lemontree (2 December 2010)

WRONG'UN said:


> Well I've read most of the 1700 odd posts on this thread, along with all the significant company announcements, and I bought some yesterday at $1.50.
> I'm more interested in what AUT are doing, and how successful they are, than in heresay and innuendo. I'm also watching the oil price, and the AUD/USD rate - this information is factual.




And to add to the impressive company announcements, we've got a 30 D average production rate of 822 boed from Patino #1


----------



## Assasin (2 December 2010)

WRONG'UN said:


> Well I've read most of the 1700 odd posts on this thread, along with all the significant company announcements, and I bought some yesterday at $1.50.
> I'm more interested in what AUT are doing, and how successful they are, than in heresay and innuendo. I'm also watching the oil price, and the AUD/USD rate - this information is factual.




Gee your timing is good. Check out todays announcements.
Agree with what you've done, the last 8 months of post are golden for anyone wanting the lowdown on AUT even if it is done by amateurs.
Goog luck.


----------



## condog (2 December 2010)

That Ipenema result is better then i expected,  especially in terms of liquids content. Its certainly wont harm our reserves ugrade in 2011. 

Great result for all parties.


----------



## Mister Mark (2 December 2010)

Hi Condog and thank you for your info as always i know i learn from it as im sure many others do. Couple of questions you may be able to help me with, some good anouncements fro my understanding with little or no SP movement, is this as an anouncement on acerage acquisitions is awaited by may, and when will we be cash flow positive, must be soon?
Thanks again


----------



## condog (2 December 2010)

Hopefully both are soon. I cant answer that .

Q4 was always going to be the cash flow quarter, but having said that, that was prior to both the 3 phase fracs, the highly restricted chokes and the delays in getting frac crews that are ever present now. 

So hopefully both soon.

In relation to sp, Euroz apparently put out an update today. I havent seen it yet, but apparently it values AUt at 2.80 due to continued great results.


----------



## Mister Mark (3 December 2010)

condog said:


> Hopefully both are soon. I cant answer that .
> 
> Q4 was always going to be the cash flow quarter, but having said that, that was prior to both the 3 phase fracs, the highly restricted chokes and the delays in getting frac crews that are ever present now.
> 
> ...




Thank you as all ways, good times ahead for all holders, see where we can get to by years end


----------



## condog (3 December 2010)

From the latest Euroz report , gives a good estimate of where well repayments are up to. 
	

		
			
		

		
	





Key point is they believe we have repaid 73% off well costs with an average of 4.6 months production. Which equates to an average repayment time by my clacs of 6.1 months. This is staggeringly impresssive.


----------



## Assasin (3 December 2010)

Wow,  nice rally. 
A great combination of news brings us a new high.

Stand-by for bananas.


----------



## Mister Mark (3 December 2010)

condog said:


> Hopefully both are soon. I cant answer that .
> 
> Q4 was always going to be the cash flow quarter, but having said that, that was prior to both the 3 phase fracs, the highly restricted chokes and the delays in getting frac crews that are ever present now.
> 
> ...




Hey you good condog, i ask you a question and look what happens, maybee i should ask about this weeks winning lotto numbers!


----------



## rez_erection (3 December 2010)

How does it generally work for this type of repayment strategy for O&G companies. On the table it shows some are over 100% paid back, should we be getting an income stream from them? With a big well program next year to be added, will this affect the repayment time?

Is it something to wait for the quarterly for or will they announce that AUT is now receiving cash?


----------



## condog (3 December 2010)

Its a pretty significant milestone, so it would warrant an announcment. It may run slightly late, due to frac crew delays and pipeline capacity issues, but it wont be much out. 

It makes sense that it would be on a total basis rather then a per well. But to my knowledge there  has not been an official announcment on that issue.


----------



## Kremmen (3 December 2010)

condog said:


> Key point is they believe we have repaid 73% off well costs with an average of 4.6 months production. Which equates to an average repayment time by my clacs of 6.1 months. This is staggeringly impresssive.




It's great. The thing that surprises me is that EKA has stalled, given that 5/8 of those are shared with EKA+AWE. EKA's profit/share on the Sugarloaf ones is about the same per share as AUT.


----------



## nioka (3 December 2010)

condog said:


> Its a pretty significant milestone, so it would warrant an announcment. It may run slightly late, due to frac crew delays and pipeline capacity issues, but it wont be much out.
> 
> It makes sense that it would be on a total basis rather then a per well. But to my knowledge there  has not been an official announcment on that issue.




I think you would find in the original farmin announcement that it was the total cost of the original agreed wells that Hillcorp could recoup. That is why there is over 100% on some. Remember that there is still the problem elephant well that will have costs that are yet to be covered, Kowlik. However that should be covered now by the ones that have more than payed their way. We can expect a notice to that effect any time.That's how I see it.


----------



## tonudiki (3 December 2010)

condog said:


> From the latest Euroz report , gives a good estimate of where well repayments are up to.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Agreed that the payback rate is impressive. Just a few points and queries on the Euroz table:-

 a) The number of months of production and the volumes/revenue  shown are only up to the end of September, as far as I can tell. This means that we already have a further 2 months of production & revenue to add on.

 Even allowing for a 30% decline on the first 4.6 months average production figures, I reckon Hilcorp may by now have got their total costs back for the 8 farmout wells, assuming Euroz's estimate of costs and revenues is accurate.

  Hilcorp have got quicker and quicker (and therefore cheaper) at drilling the wells, but then recently got slower and slower at fraccing them!! Presumably these 2 roughly balance out and the Euroz estimate of US$8m per well is o.k.

 b) Not sure what Euroz's "running total -boe" represents in their table. Is this concentrate + gas  to give a "barrels of oil equivalent"? If it includes the gas, what uplift (25%?) and conversion of gas to boe's did Euroz use? They have used a "spot" price per boe of US$82, which seems pretty high compared to average oil & gas prices in the last few months.

 c) The table excludes the Kowalik well. Whilst I believe the partners are paying their respective share for the more recent attempt at Kowalik, I don't know who picked up the bill for the first attempt? If that was Hilcorp, then I guess they want those costs recovered too. 

 Anyway, it's all looking very good for AUT at the moment and I think we will continue to see very good progress in the SP. There is every chance of $1-90 + per share before the end of 2010.....


----------



## condog (4 December 2010)

tonudiki said:


> Agreed that the payback rate is impressive. Just a few points and queries on the Euroz table:-
> 
> a) The number of months of production and the volumes/revenue  shown are only up to the end of September, as far as I can tell. This means that we already have a further 2 months of production & revenue to add on.



Agree




tonudiki said:


> Even allowing for a 30% decline on the first 4.6 months average production figures, I reckon Hilcorp may by now have got their total costs back for the 8 farmout wells, assuming Euroz's estimate of costs and revenues is accurate.



Agree





tonudiki said:


> Hilcorp have got quicker and quicker (and therefore cheaper) at drilling the wells, but then recently got slower and slower at fraccing them!! Presumably these 2 roughly balance out and the Euroz estimate of US$8m per well is o.k.



Agree and shortage of frac crews would undoubtably be driving costs up abit + 3 phase fracs





tonudiki said:


> b) Not sure what Euroz's "running total -boe" represents in their table. Is this concentrate + gas  to give a "barrels of oil equivalent"? If it includes the gas, what uplift (25%?) and conversion of gas to boe's did Euroz use? They have used a "spot" price per boe of US$82, which seems pretty high compared to average oil & gas prices in the last few months.



 They generally quote it on the document and its nearly always 12:1 or 6:1





tonudiki said:


> c) The table excludes the Kowalik well. Whilst I believe the partners are paying their respective share for the more recent attempt at Kowalik, I don't know who picked up the bill for the first attempt? If that was Hilcorp, then I guess they want those costs recovered too.



 Undoubtably all partners picked up the bill. Duster and successes are shared amongst the partners. Only negligence and a settlement would alter that.





tonudiki said:


> Anyway, it's all looking very good for AUT at the moment and I think we will continue to see very good progress in the SP. There is every chance of $1-90 + per share before the end of 2010.....



 True, those insto sellers will imo be replaced by fund purchasers now we are in the ASX 200. Lots of positve news over the past month has not been priced in imo. Right now imo we should be bouncing around $1.70 - $1.80.


----------



## condog (4 December 2010)

nioka said:


> I think you would find in the original farmin announcement that it was the total cost of the original agreed wells that Hillcorp could recoup.



 Thats my understanding , but i cant find it in print. 




nioka said:


> That is why there is over 100% on some. Remember that there is still the problem elephant well that will have costs that are yet to be covered, Kowlik. However that should be covered now by the ones that have more than payed their way. We can expect a notice to that effect any time.That's how I see it.



Agree and sure hope so, and whilst its a significant announcment that should be made on the day it happens, my bet is the temptation to deliver a nice quarterly report will see it in the Q activities report.


----------



## condog (4 December 2010)

Kremmen said:


> It's great. The thing that surprises me is that EKA has stalled, given that 5/8 of those are shared with EKA+AWE. EKA's profit/share on the Sugarloaf ones is about the same per share as AUT.




EKA does look very cheap imo, but also having said that, they so far have not locked in a next stage growth plan, and thats worth money. 

That extra acerage they purchased should have a growth plan locked in by now imo .

I watch EKA, but not incredibly closely, so i could be wrong on that. Nioka willl correct me if im wrong on that hopefully.


----------



## condog (6 December 2010)

Originally stated by MIR


> that's the way i like to work things out nice & simple
> NPV10 $15m x 130 net wells (10500 net acres at 80 acre spacings) = $1.95b
> 
> the well spacing in time will probably come down to 40 acre spacings
> ...




I tend to think these need discounting, due to the fact some wells will have had significant declines, by the time the later wells come online. 

But the point is as MIR stated "it shows the potential. Even with a 40% discount using his last scenario AUt has a potential value of $10 per share. Note this does not imply or infer that figure will come true. DYOR and seek expert advice.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (6 December 2010)

Back into AUT today at 1.635, thought the asx200 news is massive for AUT. Kinda happy it made it to 1.70 finish. So big gain on day one... if only I didn't sell them at 1.24  haha. Glad to be back coming up to Christmas too.


----------



## rez_erection (6 December 2010)

Did some searching and found the farm out announcement, free carrier on 7 wells and 3 fracs, 10 wells total on production, 6 sugarloaf, 1 ipamema, 3 longhorn. So 8 mill on 7 wells + 3 fracs (no idea how much, 4 mill?) Total to pay 68mill. Total paid back (according to the table above) 46.4mill. Another few wells flowing to sales though now missing from the table. Another 2-3 months before cash flow? + reserves due reserve quarter (reading another forum). 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090921/pdf/31ktkyl130qc7w.pdf

Love to be corrected if I am missing something, only new so very rough understanding, hoping to learn more! Thanks to all the posters on this thread!


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (6 December 2010)

RE: Rez, From memory it's about 8 million per well, but we pay differing percentages (as well as receiving the relative percentages from revenue) for each well depending on if it is located in the Sugarkane (10%) Ipanema (30%) or Longhorn (25%) tenements.

As each new well comes online (as you said a few more have come online) the other wells which have paid back their costs will contribute to the newer wells costs, enabling even quicker payback of these (short than 6-12 months). So imo due to the ongoing nature of capital costs of new wells being drilled, I'd think we'd be cashflow positive sometime Q1 2011, as this is the point at which the fully paid off completed wells will contribute sufficient revenue to pay off the newer wells as they are completed.

As condog has said before, cashflow positive is going to be massive news, but I think it's going to a bit longer than some people think due to the continued construction of new wells (brilliant in the long term, but "bad" in the short term regarding the cashflow positive moment).


----------



## Sdajii (6 December 2010)

rez_erection said:


> Did some searching and found the farm out announcement, free carrier on 7 wells and 3 fracs, 10 wells total on production, 6 sugarloaf, 1 ipamema, 3 longhorn. So 8 mill on 7 wells + 3 fracs (no idea how much, 4 mill?) Total to pay 68mill. Total paid back (according to the table above) 46.4mill. Another few wells flowing to sales though now missing from the table. Another 2-3 months before cash flow? + reserves due reserve quarter (reading another forum).
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090921/pdf/31ktkyl130qc7w.pdf
> 
> *Love to be corrected if I am missing something*, only new so very rough understanding, hoping to learn more! Thanks to all the posters on this thread!




Check the date on that announcement, it's months old and oil has been flowing since then


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (6 December 2010)

So... does that mean they will be cashflow positive very very soon? Mid February close?


----------



## Lert (6 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Back into AUT today at 1.635, thought the asx200 news is massive for AUT. Kinda happy it made it to 1.70 finish. So big gain on day one... if only I didn't sell them at 1.24  haha. Glad to be back coming up to Christmas too.




Congrats on getting back in.. Different story from me.. I had a forgotten sell order in at $1.73. I went out for a while and found they were sold when I got home. Been in since 50c so not out of pocket and CGT is not a problem. Hope to get back in a bit lower later on.


----------



## nioka (6 December 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> RE:
> 
> As condog has said before, cashflow positive is going to be massive news, but I think it's going to a bit longer than some people think due to the continued construction of new wells (brilliant in the long term, but "bad" in the short term regarding the cashflow positive moment).




You are right. there is a difference in being cash flow positive and having an income producing project. Hillcorp has to recoup the cost of the wells subject to the farmin agreement then the partners will recieve income from those wells. The cash flow positive point is reached when income exceeds expenditure.


----------



## condog (6 December 2010)

In my opinion there are 2 different definitions of cash flow +ve we can come up with. 

The first one we will achieve is when we reach the point that the original hilcorp farmin wells are repayed and cash begins flowing to the balance sheet. That imo will be a monumental moment for AUT. We will be in a magnificant position, but by no means covering expenditure. If we stopped development  we would be. Dont underestimate this point. When a company can halt further development and cover all its expenses, it suddenly attracts all the fundamental investors. This one is imminent. 

Based on the repayment table in the Euroz preso which seems about 4 weeks old, we repayed 73% of wells on average in 4.6 months average. Hence approx 15% per month. If the table is 4 weeks old, then righ now its probably aroun d 88% repayed. Which means we should be cash flow positive on the farmin portion by very early Jan.

There have been delays, with the frac crews, the frac 3 phase issues and the restricted chokes, and it appears there are also pipeline capacity issues. 

The second major one will be when we pass our net negative cash flow point. This ones not so simple. As it depends on changess in development pace. If we rapidly expend on wells then this point keeps getting pushed forward, whilever the pace of development is expanding. This one at present is estimated for about Q3 2011.

But if in late 2011 they accellerate and get an extra rig or 2 that point may get pushed out even further. 

The key point is though, we have rediculously low repayment times. Ones that everyone else in the entire eagleford are praying and only dreaming of achieving.

sorry but im incredibly tired and thats about the limit for tonight.


----------



## condog (7 December 2010)

Its hot as hell, we had an Ok day for AUT holders, wink nudge. 

Theres a lot worse shares to be in then this one. Beer o clock is screaming its head off.


----------



## Assasin (7 December 2010)

Surely it's time for some of these!

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


Great time for AUT and still a lot more to come.


----------



## easylikesunday (7 December 2010)

Good to see my beginner portfolio starting to make some money!

My first trade was MDV. Brought at .007 and sold at .010 (beginners luck??)
I told my Dad about AUT and he got in at .86c but sold at $1.00

I decided to take the plunge and get in at $1.50
Seems like a good time to ride the wave!


----------



## condog (7 December 2010)

The only thing better then these
:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi

is this 





Which some thought we would never see pink elephants with AUT. oH how wrong they where!

And Joe if your reading this ####, please have a sense of humour.


----------



## condog (7 December 2010)

easylikesunday said:


> Good to see my beginner portfolio starting to make some money!
> 
> My first trade was MDV. Brought at .007 and sold at .010 (beginners luck??)
> I told my Dad about AUT and he got in at .86c but sold at $1.00
> ...




Unless you have some fabulous CGT losses to write off, this has proven to be far better as a buy and hold then a tradeable stock imo.

Anyone whose hld for 12 months is up over 400% and only has to pay half CGT, when and if they are forced or stupid enough to sell. lol


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (8 December 2010)

I may regret selling before but I don't regret the profits, they helped out outweigh my TLS losses. So all good, I wouldn't go as far to say stupid but people... maybe cautious people.


----------



## condog (8 December 2010)

This will pull back inevitably. I dont mean to be rude when i say stupid, its more a bad choice of words. 

But in reality just a glimpse at AUT's graph will show anyone, that its got a pretty consistent growth curve with pretty predictable periods of consoliddation, followed by growth. 

IMO theres a hell of a lot left in the tanks of this baby. You wait till they unleash that acqusition news, plus some cash flow and when we get 4 rigs on site in mid to late 2011. 

$4 wont be much of a challenge imo.


----------



## condog (8 December 2010)

December 7, 2010, 9:48 PM ET.
*KKR Tops Off Another Oil And Gas Deal*

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. is putting $625 million to work in the midstream oil and gas space alongside El Paso Corp., the latest natural gas partnership formed by the New York buyout shop. 

KKR is acquiring a 50% interest in El Paso’s gathering and processing assets in Altamont, Utah, for $125 million. Additionally, KKR and El Paso have each committed up to $500 million to support midstream projects in other areas, including the Marcellus Shale and Eagle Ford Shale. The deal is expected to close by year-end.

http://blogs.wsj.com/privateequity/2010/12/07/kkr-tops-off-another-oil-and-gas-deal/


.*US recovery to pick up pace: ISM survey *

US recovery to pick up pace: ISM survey Kathleen Madigan From: Dow Jones Newswires December 08, 2010 6:41AM Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizePrintEmail Share 
Add to DiggAdd to del.icio.usAdd to FacebookAdd to KwoffAdd to MyspaceAdd to NewsvineWhat are these?THE US recovery will pick up steam next year, although hiring will lag, according to the semi-annual ISM forecast. 
The ISM surveyed purchasing managers in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing to gauge sentiment for 2011. The overall forecast projects optimism about the US economy for 2011, with manufacturers more upbeat than non-manufacturers.

The ISM report echoes the forecasts of many private economists who expect the recovery to firm next year. But the ISM outlook for employment looks a tad more cautious than other forecasts.

Among manufacturers, revenues are expected to grow 5.6 per cent, following a 7.9 per cent increase reported for 2010. Profit margins are also expected to improve next year.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-pace-ism-survey/story-e6frg90o-1225967359073

All good news imo for AUT

*Economy to expand by 10 percent in 2011 * 
People's Daily Online - ‎8 hours ago‎
China's economy will expand by 10 percent in 2011, and inflation will remain moderate with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 3.3 percent, ...

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/7224231.html


*2011-2012 Outlook: Global economies to avoid double dip * 
Vancouver Sun (blog) - Jenny Lee - ‎16 hours ago‎
“Global economic activity has decelerated in recent months, with next year's growth in North America, ... 

http://communities.canada.com/vanco...nomies-to-avoid-double-dip-scotia-report.aspx


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (8 December 2010)

condog said:


> This will pull back inevitably. I dont mean to be rude when i say stupid, its more a bad choice of words.
> 
> But in reality just a glimpse at AUT's graph will show anyone, that its got a pretty consistent growth curve with pretty predictable periods of consoliddation, followed by growth.
> 
> ...




I agree looking at the charts. Was just watching the Business Channel... someone said they expect AUT over the next 2 - 3 weeks to continue an upward movement towards *$2.20 - $2.30*. This will be great if it's true.

On a personal note condog, when did you last buy AUT, are you buying all the time or holding if you don't mind saying. Thanks mate


----------



## nioka (8 December 2010)

Posted this link on another stock.( borrowed from another forum). Worth a read.
http://www.hyperionfinancial.com/tei/tei-intro.htm:)


----------



## condog (8 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> On a personal note condog, when did you last buy AUT, are you buying all the time or holding if you don't mind saying. Thanks mate




I dont like to get into specifics much, but my last big purchase was in the 50's. I did by a few small parcels up to just over a $ . On a different note im gob smacked with the poor investing of some of our peers in AZZ. They have been in there ramping and disolusioned for months. Had they sold and bought AUT at any given point they would be miles ahead. And imo right now if they still sold and bought AUt they will be miles ahead of those who hold and flounder. Makes you wonder. Some i guess have to learn thier lessons the hard way. But it makes me wonder how hard something has to hit you before you notice it.


----------



## condog (9 December 2010)

*US independents to buy into shale oil boom
By Sheila McNulty in Houston *

Published: December 7 2010 19:49 | Last updated: December 7 2010 19:49

Plunging US natural gas prices are pushing independents that have long focused on gas to buy into the shale oil boom.

.....

“Almost everyone went too heavily into gas, thinking it was nirvana,” says Mr LeBlanc. “Everybody is trying to make a shift now. But like the Three Stooges all trying to go through a door, they can’t all fit.”


Full Article at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ff5c24e-0227-11e0-aa40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz17YYSZkle



*Is Another Oil Spike Upon Us?*8/12/2010 1:15:02 PM

Once again Goldman Sachs has lifted its oil price forecast into triple digits. GS is not forecasting oil to reach US$100 in 2011, it is forecasting oil to average US$100 in 2011. To put that into context, oil is currently around US$90 but the 2010 average to date is only US$79. In other words, oil may yet spike in a similar fashion as it did in 2008.
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8178541


----------



## condog (9 December 2010)

Its a nice looking pre-open. 

If holders are disciplined and hold tight like they used to then it might be a case of you want in you pay the price plus a big premium.


----------



## Sdajii (9 December 2010)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but AUT has now hit new all time highs every day for five trading days in a row! What a run! Actually, looking at more than a year of their history now just looks like one big run! I only wish I'd got in sooner 

Thanks for the posts several members have put up, perhaps most notably Condog, and even more so, my friend who put me on to ADI/EKA/AUT in the first place. I read and watch with excitement pretty much every day. I was sad to have still been unable to afford to buy a house at 30 years of age. A few months ago it looked like AUT might help me get a house deposit together... it has done that and then some. I'm now wondering if it might even end up covering most of a mortgage if necessary, although I expect to be wanting to find another way to pay so I can hold on for longer!

I think I posted bananas at about $1.30.... probably due for more!

:bananasmi :bananasmi :bananasmi:bananasmi :bananasmi :bananasmi:bananasmi :bananasmi

More bananas some time after $2


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 December 2010)

A question: With AUT coming into the ASX200 this month will this lead to AUT rising once it's actually in the 200 list? Or is this already 100% factored in?


----------



## condog (9 December 2010)

imo its already beeen factored in. A lot of the recent buying imo is ASX200 related. 

Id like to hear MIR's opinion on this.


----------



## mir (9 December 2010)

"Id like to hear MIR's opinion on this."

condog & BrightGreenGlow i believe it's the Canadians buying at the moment.
with the asx 200 there could be some more upside when they get in .


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 December 2010)

The date of the change up is the end of business 17th December... so maybe Monday 20th will have a few cents rise?  Hopefully I think its a safe bet it will rise even if it is factored in.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (9 December 2010)

IIRC, you can subscribe to the institutions/indexs version of ASX index rebalances for some ridiculously big figure, it gives you the names of the companies that are being exchanged out a week or so before it's released into the public domain. Not too sure about this as it's dredged up from my memory, I'll have to double check, but from this I'd expect the index re balances to be mostly done by now, if the public knows, the institutes probably knew yesterday .


----------



## condog (10 December 2010)

Nice news release this morning.

SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS AND PRODUCTION UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations and
production at the Sugarloaf Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Sugarkane Gas &
Condensate Field, Texas.
Sugarloaf AMI (AUT 10% Working Interest)

May #1H (10% WI)
The May #1H well has been on production for a period of 30 days and Aurora is pleased to provide
the market with an update on the produced volumes during that period:   760  boep/d

• The equivalent rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a
25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.

This well continues to be produced on a small choke setting with limited tubing head pressure
pressure and production declines being observed.

Kowalik #1R (11.65% WI)
The remedial operations have been successfully completed on this well and it will now be unloaded
to sales. Aurora will provide an update to the market when stabilised flow has been achieved.

Urrutia #1H (10% WI)
The fracture stimulation operations on this well are complete with 19 stages having been pumped
over approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section. Isolation plugs are now being removed and
Aurora will advise the market when stabilised flow has been achieved.

Direct Assets #1H (10% WI)
The fracture stimulation of this well is underway, Aurora will provide an update to the market when
these operations are complete and the well is producing to sales.

Gilley #1H (10% WI)
Drilling operations in the horizontal section are presently underway with the well at a depth of
15,500 ft, Aurora will advise the market when they are complete.


----------



## AngusSmart (10 December 2010)

50% reserves upgrade.. and Moar. check the announcement 


Holy Shi.....


and here i was thinking the pull back today was nice for my reentry back into  proper shares..


----------



## condog (10 December 2010)

I agree this is spectaculor, makes me wonder if someone knew this week???

There was huge action and imo this is why.

*EAGLE FORD SHALE ACQUISITION AND CAPITAL RAISING*Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX: AUT) (“Aurora”) is pleased to advise that is has agreed to
acquire additional working interests across the three Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI’s) in
which it currently participates (Longhorn, Ipanema and Sugarloaf) and a fourth adjacent
area known as Excelsior (Acquisition) for US$120 million cash. All four AMI’s are located
within the Sugarkane field, onshore United States, in the liquids rich area of the Eagle Ford
shale trend.
The Acquisition is highly accretive on a reserves and net present value basis, with Aurora’s
net 3P reserves increasing 50% to 84 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Euroz Securities Limited, TD Securities Inc., and GMP Securities LP have been appointed
by Aurora to assist with funding the Acquisition.
Key aspects of the transaction are as follows:
● Acquisition of 3/16ths of an existing joint venture partner’s working interest in three
Sugarkane field AMIs which Aurora already participates in, plus exposure to an
additional AMI, being Excelsior
● *Aurora acquires an additional 5,100 net acres, increasing its total Sugarkane field
net acreage by approximately 50% to over 15,600 acres*● Aurora acquires estimated additional net 3P reserves of 28 mmboe, increasing
Aurora’s net 3P reserves by 50% to 84 mmboe
● *The acreage to be acquired is all located within the “sweet spot” of the Eagle Ford
Shale trend*
● *All additional acreage operated by Hilcorp Energy Inc*● The acquisition involves additional acreage within the Company’s existing area of
focus and represents a *low risk acquisition *of acres under development
● The enlarged reserves position offers significant growth potential with the same
potential reserves upside identified by Aurora in its existing interests
● *Aurora will now participate in approximately 60 new wells during calendar year 2011
for a total of approximately 80 wells across the 4 AMI’s by the end of 2011*● Settlement of the acquisition is scheduled to occur before year end

The *Acquisition has an effective date of 1 December 2010*, with the vendor retaining rights
to post effective date production from its interest in 22 existing producing wells. The
Acquisition is scheduled to close before the end of this calendar year. The Acquisition is
unconditional as to the purchase of 2/16ths of the vendors interest. Aurora has the option
to acquire the remaining 1/16th interest and intends to exercise this option and settle on the
whole transaction before year end.
The Acquisition and future development drilling costs are expected to be funded from
existing cash reserves and an equity placement of new ordinary shares and special
warrants. *Following the completion of the offering, the Company intends to file a
prospectus in Canada qualifying the distribution of the ordinary shares issuable upon the
exercise of the special warrants.*Further details of the Acquisition and associated equity funding will be provided upon
finalization of the private placement arrangements.


This is massive




A mere $120M for a 50% increase in reserves, right in the sweet spot.  Its 24000 per acre but imo worth it.


----------



## condog (10 December 2010)

975M to $1.5B / (340000000+$120M at Cr Price of say $1.60)

= $1.5B / 340750000
= approx $2.86 to  $4.40 valuation imo. Note could be wrong so DYOR and seek advice


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (10 December 2010)

Brilliant stuff by management on this acquisition, I give a more detailed post of my thoughts on my blog (wrote it up and was going to chuck a delicious link on here, but you beat me too it Condog!). Brilliant that management are sticking to the AMI's and projects that they know and love, instead of diworsifying into other ones.

URL to the individual post about this AUT announcement is below:

http://parlevoufrancoistrades.blogspot.com/2010/12/after-hours-news-aut-with-aquisition.html

I'm hoping for a $1.60-$1.70 priced CR Con, but I'm thinking that realistically we'll get $1.40 to $1.50 in the CR (but as always, happy to be proven wrong aye.)

A question though, has your valuation per share gone up or down from this transaction Condog? .

PVF.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 December 2010)

When are we likely to find out about the CR? I bought back in on the 6th Dec... do you think I'll be able to participate??


----------



## condog (10 December 2010)

Ahhh yes but who have the bought out. Have they bought a combination from Hilcorp, TCIE, EKA, AWE or what. I need to get on TRRC and see who owns Excelsior.

Anyway its all good for AUt.

If we retain relative valuations for acerage / and or reserves we can hopefully expect some considerable gains in the near future imo.

Longhorn 1200 odd acres

Ipanema 175 odd acres

Sugarloaf 925 odd acres

Excelsior 2,750 odd acres

To my knowledge we already had money raised for acerage, approx $50M hence we need another $70M

70M at $1.60 = 43.75M shares

43.75 / 340M = 13% dilution

50% gain - 13% dilution = net gain of approx 37%

37% * 1.80 = $2.46 approx  immediate relative value imo



Using my forward cash flow model unrisked i get $6.32 for end of 2011
Applying a 15% risk i get $5.37


----------



## condog (10 December 2010)

Excelsior lies to the NW of sugarkane and Longhorn

see: http://www.bourseinvestor.com/bi4/pdfnews/default.asp?d=01005935&f=20091030


I think Hilcorp and TCIE own the excelsior section. Which makes me think AUt have purchased part of hilcorps interest on the other 3 leases.

From AUT web site
Note the Sugarkane and Excelsior AMIs are also within the Sugarkane Field however Aurora does not have an interest in these project areas.


http://www.epicuregroup.com.au/proj_sugarkane.asp


----------



## Mister Mark (10 December 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, but AUT has now hit new all time highs every day for five trading days in a row! What a run! Actually, looking at more than a year of their history now just looks like one big run! I only wish I'd got in sooner
> 
> Thanks for the posts several members have put up, perhaps most notably Condog, and even more so, my friend who put me on to ADI/EKA/AUT in the first place. I read and watch with excitement pretty much every day. I was sad to have still been unable to afford to buy a house at 30 years of age. A few months ago it looked like AUT might help me get a house deposit together... it has done that and then some. I'm now wondering if it might even end up covering most of a mortgage if necessary, although I expect to be wanting to find another way to pay so I can hold on for longer!
> 
> ...




Great result, so happy for you and congratulations, love a good news story, you like me must be jumping through hoops just now


----------



## Sdajii (10 December 2010)

Mister Mark said:


> Great result, so happy for you and congratulations, love a good news story, you like me must be jumping through hoops just now




Haha, jumping through hoops trying to get some money together to take advantage of the capital raising? I actually expected that we'd have positive cash flow and no more capital raisings, and my holding in AUT is fairly large (huge by my standards) so I was content not to buy more from here. Perhaps I'll sell something to take part.

But overall, yeah, I'm very excited about it all  I saw someone else with a similar story to mine thanks to AUT. It's nice to see people doing well out of it  I expect it will be an interesting series of developments over the next few weeks and months with this news, and it'll be interesting to see how the projections are changed. I am pretty bullish on oil, so I expect (rightly or wrongly) that in the long term this will turn out to be an excellent move.


----------



## Mister Mark (10 December 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Haha, jumping through hoops trying to get some money together to take advantage of the capital raising? I actually expected that we'd have positive cash flow and no more capital raisings, and my holding in AUT is fairly large (huge by my standards) so I was content not to buy more from here. Perhaps I'll sell something to take part.
> 
> But overall, yeah, I'm very excited about it all  I saw someone else with a similar story to mine thanks to AUT. It's nice to see people doing well out of it  I expect it will be an interesting series of developments over the next few weeks and months with this news, and it'll be interesting to see how the projections are changed. I am pretty bullish on oil, so I expect (rightly or wrongly) that in the long term this will turn out to be an excellent move.




Do we know if we will be part of the cap raising, there has been one in the last 12 months so without a vote we cannot is my understanding.

To CONDOG, your regular posts and input has been unbelievable, we that hold large or small parcells have done our own research, but without your help many of us would not be where we are, so i say thank you:xmaswave:xmaswave


----------



## Sdajii (10 December 2010)

Mister Mark said:


> Do we know if we will be part of the cap raising, there has been one in the last 12 months so without a vote we cannot is my understanding.
> 
> To CONDOG, your regular posts and input has been unbelievable, we that hold large or small parcells have done our own research, but without your help many of us would not be where we are, so i say thank you:xmaswave:xmaswave




Well, they're raising capital one way or another. Either we get to buy them after a vote, or the sophies get them and we get to buy at the same price or close to it due to profit taking etc.


----------



## Mister Mark (10 December 2010)

Sdajii said:


> Well, they're raising capital one way or another. Either we get to buy them after a vote, or the sophies get them and we get to buy at the same price or close to it due to profit taking etc.




Old saying but its WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN must meet the minium so WIN WIN WIN WIN


----------



## pierrebfg (10 December 2010)

Hi Guys, 

I'm fairly new to shares and I have a small parcel in AUT, with the CR do I get the chance to buy more before it goes to the market? 
When does all this happen and how do I do this if I want to?
This is the first time I have had shares where they are doing CR so I don't fully understand the whole process.
Thanks in advance for you help. 
I'd also like to say thanks to all the people who post in this Thread, a very informative one.

Cheers Wes


----------



## condog (11 December 2010)

If its a CR no its only offered to instos and sophisticated investors. They mention warrants in Canada, which again would not be generally offered to shareholders. 

The effective date was pretty soon again indicating its not going to be an SPP to current shareholders.


----------



## pierrebfg (11 December 2010)

Thanks for that condog. 
Certainly looks very positive for the future. Bring on 2011


----------



## Assasin (11 December 2010)

This thread has always been amazing.

 I get on the phone to ring my brokers/advisers and while waiting, I log on here and learn more and get kept far more up to date.
I reckon some advisers are using these threads for information.
Thanks to everyone, whish I could contribute something of substance.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (12 December 2010)

If CAP raising goes to the institutions or whatever at say.. $1.60 should we expect the SP to drop around that level? yes or no and why? I guess the normal a month of stagnant and lower SP levels and then a surge.. what do you guys think?


----------



## condog (12 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> If CAP raising goes to the institutions or whatever at say.. $1.60 should we expect the SP to drop around that level? yes or no and why? I guess the normal a month of stagnant and lower SP levels and then a surge.. what do you guys think?




the gravity of this announcment is huge. It equates to a 37% increase in the net worth of the company using either an acerage or reserves estimate, and using cash flow models a 25% increase by end of 2011. So it is a massive price catalyst.

Is there dilution, well yes and no. 

Its dilutive in the sense there are more shares and yes they will get a discount. But in reality without offering the CR the additional value would not have happened. 

So imo there is a 13% dilution for an approx  37% net gain in value. 

I certainly hope the offer price i s a lot higher then $1.60, as last time we where massively over subscribed and on the back of this announcement imo even at 175 i think we would be 50% oversubscribed.

I for one would be enormously angry if its too cheap. And have written to Jon stewart expressing such an opinion. 

I cant see it being able to pull back much or for long, with the massive value that just got unlocked.


----------



## Assasin (12 December 2010)

I've been in AUT since early and the past CR's has seen a retrace nearly back to the CR price before moving on strongly.

 A couple of things have happened since, that could change it this time.
* We are now a Top 200 stock which opens us up to a wider and stronger clientele. I bet some of those big Insto's would have loved AUT's Friday news.
* Aut has gone from explorer to a rather good producer with a strong balance sheet and business program. Very derisked IMO.

 These things just might have a bearing on how this CR travels in the market.IMO

Personally, I am so over balanced with aut but are currently organising myself to top up pre- Christmas. 

Currently holding AUT, SEA, EKA, MHM, XAM


----------



## condog (12 December 2010)

Assasin said:


> Personally, I am so over balanced with aut but are currently organising myself to top up pre- Christmas.




Hi i think anyone who has done thier research and realised that selling winners is bad will be well over weight in AUt...

Also for anyone craving infoo the other place...hc.... has a lot of discussion on this at present.


----------



## philly (13 December 2010)

AUT is in a trading halt this morning pending an announcement regarding the CR that it foreshadowed last Friday. This will give the market some time to digest the impact its proposed acquisitions in the Sugarkane will have on the future. I am a very very happy holder


----------



## AngusSmart (13 December 2010)

Nice new euroz evaluation update

4   Price Target: $3.38/sh

loveess it.


needs another new entry point.. dont think it will drop much lower with this new raising.. or it will be pretty premature and quick upwards..


The deal expands AUT’s existing WI in the Sugarkane Field, Texas:

4   Sugarloaf AMI to 15.7% (prev. 10%);
4   Longhorn AMI to 31.9% (prev. 25%);
4   Ipanema AMI to 36.4% (prev. 30%).

       The acquisition will also result in a 9.1% participating interest in the adjacent Excelsior AMI.


----------



## Magic Man (13 December 2010)

This all sounds spectacular. What can we excpect from the share price in the next 6 months?


----------



## condog (13 December 2010)

Well Auroz are saying $2.97 to $3.38 in 6 months imo.

My forward cash flow projections, that gave me a Dec 2010 value of $1.59, give me a $4+ valuation for Dec 2010 prior to the extra NRI and 20 wells.


----------



## HEA815 (14 December 2010)

Condog - question of fact.  Is that sp valuation for Dec 2011?  I'd love it if it was Dec 2010.


----------



## Sdajii (14 December 2010)

I noticed that too. I assume it's a typo for 2011. $4 in the next two weeks would be lovely, but I don't have my hopes up. $4 in one year seems fairly realistic.


----------



## condog (14 December 2010)

HEA815 said:


> Condog - question of fact.  Is that sp valuation for Dec 2011?  I'd love it if it was Dec 2010.




Yeh sorry 2011 

Amazing valuation put out by Euroz, should really kick things along after the inevitable profit takers.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (14 December 2010)

Where can I find euroz website guys and other raters like bakers etc.......


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (14 December 2010)

A quick google search of "Euroz" gives me this as the first result.

http://www.euroz.com.au/

I loled, and obviously just google Baker Steel for their site, I've been to it but they don't reveal too much on it. Secretive lot those lads, but I know they are very *very* long on gold/gold producers.

PVF.


----------



## skyQuake (14 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Where can I find euroz website guys and other raters like bakers etc.......




Looking for confirmation bias?

I'm bullish AUT but not because of Euroz or any other broker targets


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (14 December 2010)

Nah just like to get a lot of ideas then pick one that seems to most thought out and logical.... obviously I value condogs thoughts as he has been pretty much spot on so far.... Comsec has an indicative price of $1.865 at the moment if that helps anyone... and as for google... I tried that and it didn't come up at all. weird.... thanks anyways!


----------



## Magic Man (15 December 2010)

Hey Condog,

Your evaluations for AUT sound very well researched. Just wondered if you had the time to give us an evaluation on Sundance Energy? 

Thanks ;-)


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 December 2010)

I hold SEA too... maybe better to private message condog to get him to post over there....

Well no news yet on the CR news from AUT and market is now suspended. Will we get an announcement today or after trading hours??


----------



## Joe Blow (15 December 2010)

Magic Man: To private message an ASF member click on their name and select the "Send a private message to (user name)" option.

A reminder to all that all padded out posts will be removed. If you can't think of 75 characters of meaningful content to contribute to the thread then please refrain from posting until you can.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 December 2010)

CR raising is at $1.60 ... mmm if only it was higher... this is the announcement..




> AURORA TO RAISE A$120 MILLION TO FUND EAGLE FORD SHALE ACQUISITION
> ● Underwritten placement to raise approximately A$120 million
> ● US$120 million Eagle Ford Shale Acquisition fully funded
> ● Acquisition provides increased working interest in ‘liquids rich’ Sugarkane Field
> ...


----------



## AngusSmart (15 December 2010)

from the new presentation material pdf.. so we know longhorn, ipanema, sugarloaf, and now excelsior.. but the orange area below excelsior?? is this part of hilcorps area? who owns them acerages and will they be on the cards in future?  reason i am asking, is around sugarloaf longhorn etc there is no colour.. but now a mysterious one in orange..

good news on the c/r tho it was pointed out a few days ago so no surprise!

cant wait to be back trading to see where this goes.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 December 2010)

SP is now up 14 odd cents. great news, people are liking this  Heavy buying and very limited selling, hopefully we don't see many profit takers... holding up so far


----------



## ob1kinobi (15 December 2010)

Hi Ya'll,

Please excuse my laziness in not reading the anns v.carefully.

Are ordinary holders are able to take part in the CR too?

I skimmed it but still unsure.

Thanks

Ob1


----------



## AngusSmart (15 December 2010)

Such a good stock to watch trade this arvo. some big orders going thru above the $2 mark.. and around it.

was tempted to sell and buy again soon but maybe time to hold a little longer and see how high its going to go before the 75mil @ 1.60 profit takers come in.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 December 2010)

Woooohooo, what a great day for AUT, up 25c on the back of the announcement and hopefully built up pressure for another 2 good days u finish the week maybe over $2.10?


----------



## kyrondgm (15 December 2010)

ob1kinobi said:


> Hi Ya'll,
> 
> Please excuse my laziness in not reading the anns v.carefully.
> 
> ...




Hey mate - I think it is only available to sophisticated and institutional investors. At first I thought the 1st Tranche is existing shareholders and the 2nd is for the sophisticated & institutional, but I can't read anything that suggests normal shareholders will be able to participate. Hell I would love to participate though. I feel like I'm in a threesome, and while the two birds go at it I just have to sit in the corner and watch!


----------



## nioka (15 December 2010)

ob1kinobi said:


> Hi Ya'll,
> 
> Please excuse my laziness in not reading the anns v.carefully.
> 
> ...




Your laziness is not excused. If you are that lazy that you cant research then you will have nothing to offer the forum in return. Your post shows that you probably will add nothing  and i suggest a change of attitude is required.


----------



## chiasm (15 December 2010)

Good action today, stupidly took some profits a little too early though...doh! I'm still learning though so it all adds to the experience. Let's see what tomorrow brings with lots of buyers around...


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 December 2010)

A lot of buyers is an understatement though. I've never seen a market depth quite like this one....


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (15 December 2010)

Brilliant day today, exactly what I expected after the TH, a company that buys more than a dollar value with every dollar it raises, and then for that more than a dollar of value, it earns a very *very* high rate of return, on the order of 50%-200% depending on the "quality" of the well, the "bad" ones earning only 50%.

With my noob technical analysis I'd like to think that it settles above $2 somehow, either by floating water tomorrow, or wooshing upwards again.

PVF.


----------



## rez_erection (15 December 2010)

Just had a quick flick through the presentation, all looks good from what I understand, couple nice points:
- Page 10 - 3 wells under excelsior on production, getting cashflow from this (once we have paid back)?
- Page 11 - 21 wells drilled, 17 on production by end of 31/12/10, another 5 wells coming online in the next 15 days.

Was good watching the hour of trading, reminded me of playing hungry hungry hippos! Everything getting eaten very quickly


----------



## buffalo66 (15 December 2010)

..it's still within 12 months of june/july SPP, imo this won't be available to personal holders

condog, i recall you posted about the potential for acquiring adjacent acerage back in september...you were well on the money & thankyou for that & all your contributions. Am interested in cost per acerage vs that post & your thoughts on the cr...& nioka I agree it seems unneccesarily low, especially given today's action 

so..until we learn more, am ever so crudely estimating based on nothing more than the acerage upside of a $2.05 - $2.29 range of the sp - 22% dilution subtracted off a 50% upside gives a 28% increase between the cr sp $1.60 & the pre-cr sp of $1.79. 

am a lt holder of AUT & avid reader of this informative & occasional soap-opera thread..


----------



## condog (15 December 2010)

Buffalo - yeh they paid a lot more then i thought they where going to , but at $120M for 5000 acres of 3P reserves they still got an absolute bargain as is reflected in the SP.

All surrounding sugarkane acerage is now tightly held and the only way to acquire more now is like AUT have just done.

Re: SEA - they have a LOT of amazingly high quality acerage (well over 100,000 net acres) and they do a lot of incredible deals where they sell of 5-20% of acerage parcels and get their entire purchase price , plus royalties back. Very very smart management imo. I havent run the sums, but i confidently say SEA 80c target by Euroz now needs updating again. Disc, this is only an opinion. I dont hold. 

Some happy AUT holders this afternoon.


----------



## justiceotp (15 December 2010)

Great day today for AUT and well worth waiting for, cant wait to see the action tomorrow will be hard to concentrate on work.

Im holding AUT EKA and SEA and all had a good day today, just wanted to share a positive news article on oil pricing and news like this is what would also be contributing to the rises in price of some O&G stocks

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/12/11/opec-keeps-output-target-steady-amid-oil-heat/

And lastly thanks to Condog I have held this stock and a lot of it for quite some time and id have to say your research has been a great help and when I take some profit (still planning on holding for a quite some time) I will be sending you a nice bottle for you to enjoy.


----------



## condog (15 December 2010)

Cheers justice happy to help. 

Your portfolio must have looked nice and green today. I imagine you might have reason to pop a few corks.


----------



## Magic Man (15 December 2010)

Hey Condog. Thanks for that information. Because they did the capital raising for AUT at $1.60, on hostory will the share price head towards that figure or will the gains keep comming?. In your opinion is it a smart play to take profits now and get back in at a later date, or hold and enjoy the ride?


----------



## AngusSmart (15 December 2010)

Magic man,

Look what happened last time, 20/10 was the Cr announcement

price was 1.25.

closest it got was around 1.27.. then onwards and to where we are now


----------



## condog (15 December 2010)

Magic Man said:


> Hey Condog. Thanks for that information. Because they did the capital raising for AUT at $1.60, on hostory will the share price head towards that figure or will the gains keep comming?. In your opinion is it a smart play to take profits now and get back in at a later date, or hold and enjoy the ride?




In the past its fallen back to near CR levels. The issue date i think was 21st Dec for Tranche 1 , in which case thats when some renewed selling volume may or may not eventuate.

These instos though get offered these CR discounts everyday so inevitably some will want to offload, and surely they will  have enough volume to cause a pullback. The danger is ho far is it going to run between now and then. 

I feel the market voted with confidence today that they love the reserves upgrade achieved and they can see the value. So lets just hope our newly found instos can also see the value and look to profit rather then churn.

As for your strategy i cant comment other then to say buy and hold has served me well with this stock. but each person has thier own stratefy and tax concerns.


----------



## justiceotp (15 December 2010)

Magic man that's a funny question to ask Condog when he has always clearly been someone to buy and hold this stock and has previously stated this many times, and so your also asking him to give advice that differs to his normal trading strategy in this stock. No one can really answer that question for you, but what you need to look at is in its previous CR it did fall back but it wasn't on the back of news as large as what we have just had. Also it is important to take a look at where the day finished today with about 2.5 million shares on the buy side vs 12,000 shares on the sell side so we could see a lot of upward pressure tomorrow morning, but it wont take long to see how that pans out.
How lucky are those buyers getting to buy shares at $1.60 after they have read the news, i bet they are still pinching themselves to check they are not dreaming.


----------



## condog (16 December 2010)

Interesting days ahead. If AUT takes out 2.35 this morning it will officially be a 10 bagger within 12 months. The staggering thing is the growth potential still on offer imo.


----------



## adobee (16 December 2010)

condog said:


> Interesting days ahead. If AUT takes out 2.35 this morning it will officially be a 10 bagger within 12 months. The staggering thing is the growth potential still on offer imo.
> View attachment 40057




this has been a really great performer.. hope you had alot of $ in it early on and are now a millionaire !!


----------



## ob1kinobi (16 December 2010)

nioka said:


> Your laziness is not excused. If you are that lazy that you cant research then you will have nothing to offer the forum in return. Your post shows that you probably will add nothing  and i suggest a change of attitude is required.




Ouch! ... how do I respond to that ... maybe I won't offer anything, but then again maybe I might. I'd certainly like to think so.

Thanks Condog for the excellent research and also to the two guys who did answer my question.

Cheers


----------



## Magic Man (16 December 2010)

Hello Condog. 

Just wondered if your familiar with a stock called PANAX GEOTHERMAL LTD??
What are your thoughts on geothermal energy? 

I am sure everyone is looking forward to your next top stock pick!

Choice...


----------



## Joe Blow (16 December 2010)

Magic Man said:


> Hello Condog.
> 
> Just wondered if your familiar with a stock called PANAX GEOTHERMAL LTD??
> What are your thoughts on geothermal energy?
> ...




Magic Man: This is the AUT thread. If you wish to ask questions about Panax Geothermal please do so in the PAX thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19641

Please keep stock threads on topic.


----------



## easylikesunday (16 December 2010)

No offence Magic Man but good work Joe.

Thats why this is such a great forum, because we have hardworking admins!!

Keep it up, I love this site!

To keep this post AUT related.. 

I hold. Haha


----------



## WRONG'UN (16 December 2010)

Recent relationship between AUT and EKA, (via PairTrade Finder)

Draw your own conclusions as to whether the relationship will "revert towards the mean", or whether it's history. The correlation is still plunging.

Sorry I haven't posted this chart for a while - my main pc has been out of action.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 December 2010)

easylikesunday said:


> No offence Magic Man but good work Joe.
> 
> Thats why this is such a great forum, because we have hardworking admins!!
> 
> ...




No offense Sunday but this post above is about as useful as Magic's. Anyways..... Old mate Roger was just on the business channel and he commented that we are sleep walking into an Oil crisis... which is only gonna be good for AUT. Once again today a good result 10c up. No pull back in sight and good numbers for tomorrow's open. I wouldn't imagine AUT dropping past 1.80 now, bit of support there and it seems too high now to drop down towards 1.60. Also today massive volume again.... Monday AUT will be listed in the ASX200 too so looks all good I think.


----------



## condog (16 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> No offense Sunday but this post above is about as useful as Magic's. Anyways..... Old mate Roger was just on the business channel and he commented that we are sleep walking into an Oil crisis... which is only gonna be good for AUT. Once again today a good result 10c up. No pull back in sight and good numbers for tomorrow's open. I wouldn't imagine AUT dropping past 1.80 now, bit of support there and it seems too high now to drop down towards 1.60. Also today massive volume again.... Monday AUT will be listed in the ASX200 too so looks all good I think.




Thats why i tend to post a lot of peak oil related links. It seems most are unaware just how close we are to a major oil crisis. Stocks like AUt etc provide imo a nice hedge to any such event. My next pick is SEA, i dont hold, but wish i did. 

I think as investors its better to be in stocks that have solid achievable growth plans rather then pie in the sky early technology plays that may or may  not eventuate. To me thats gambling. 

If you take a look at AUT and SEA compared to most these other stocks that keep getting mentioned, AUT has a technology thats proven, on acerage thats proven and they have managment that is effectively accellerating the growth of the company. Likewise for SEA. A lot of these others like TXN, SSN, EKA imo do not have all of the above. One of the links in the chain to success is missing. 

All opinion so do your own research.

Nice day for AUT

By the way imo AUT is a stronger buy right now with the recent news then it was 3 weeks ago at $1.60. Why because effectively its secured a rapid growth plan and a 50 percent increase inn reserves. to me right now its worth a minimum of $2.40 and more likely $2.80 - $3.00

Again only opinion so dyor and seek advice.


----------



## easylikesunday (17 December 2010)

Anyone wanna watch a good show?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:AUT

Price is going crazy!!


----------



## cmxd (17 December 2010)

What happened here? A huge single amount trading at 10:45:19am. What does this mean?


----------



## cmxd (17 December 2010)

Before 4m, the AUT was up to $2.31, which was another highest price in 52 weeks, however after 4:01PM until 4:10PM, the finale price was $2.20. There were huge amounts trading. This was the part of the Course of sales between 4M and 4:10PM.


----------



## mr. jeff (17 December 2010)

That is scary. is this people heading for the door or insto buying ahead of Monday rebalance? that volume spike is quite large, says captain obvious.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (17 December 2010)

Too bad it pulled back to only be 4c up... hmm. A lot more sellers now though. Howevere half of the total sellers want to sell at 2.22 and 2.25 which isnt so bad. Gee this baby keeps on going doesn't it?


----------



## prgudula (17 December 2010)

what is just happened?
still AUT in adjust 
last transaction was at 5:08

05:08:43 PM	2.200	1,940,016
05:08:43 PM	2.200	1,755,164
04:59:02 PM	2.200	233,815
04:36:48 PM	2.200	238,350
04:33:57 PM	2.200	100,000
04:24:20 PM	2.200	700,000
04:15:17 PM	2.200	-815,259
04:10:13 PM	2.200	6,893
04:10:13 PM	2.200	187,048
04:10:13 PM	2.200	32,134


----------



## skyQuake (17 December 2010)

S&P index rebal.
Funds sloshing money around into it.

Also today is the last day for a lot of funds, so they'd square up the books ahead of their break.


----------



## HEA815 (20 December 2010)

Not too much of a retrace today (so far).  Any thoughts on if the sp will come down further or will this be the limit of insto churn?


----------



## Magic Man (20 December 2010)

I just bough another 20,000 units today so restock up so let's hope it doesn't retrace more. Seems ok today.


----------



## skyQuake (20 December 2010)

Would expect it to fade more, its just one down down after how large a run?


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (20 December 2010)

I'd be very surprised if AUT doesn't at least make an attempt of retracing to the CR levels. It would show amazing strength if that doesn't happen and depth of buyers looking to get in to AUT. I'd give it about a fortnight before the newly issued shares find their way into more stable longer term holders.

PVF.


----------



## condog (21 December 2010)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> I'd be very surprised if AUT doesn't at least make an attempt of retracing to the CR levels. It would show amazing strength if that doesn't happen and depth of buyers looking to get in to AUT. I'd give it about a fortnight before the newly issued shares find their way into more stable longer term holders.
> 
> PVF.




If it did retrace that far, which i personally doubt , it wont be there for long. LT holders would see amazing value and bid it up from those levels. CR level is <50% of Euroz valuation, so personalluy i cant see it staying much below $2 long at all. 

I think now we are on the ASX200 radar, there will be enough people watching to launch on any cheap discards and lap them up.


----------



## Magic Man (21 December 2010)

condog said:


> If it did retrace that far, which i personally doubt , it wont be there for long. LT holders would see amazing value and bid it up from those levels. CR level is <50% of Euroz valuation, so personalluy i cant see it staying much below $2 long at all.
> 
> I think now we are on the ASX200 radar, there will be enough people watching to launch on any cheap discards and lap them up.




Condog i think your spot on. Holders of this stock should be quite happy its retracing, we can now by more strock at a cheaper price. I also noticed SEA is retracing a little. Maybe another good buy under 70C. 

Plenty to look forward to?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 December 2010)

AUT was meant to be in the ASX200 after the re-balance... just checking the asx200 now and cannot find AUT... what happened? did I miss something?


----------



## philly (21 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> AUT was meant to be in the ASX200 after the re-balance... just checking the asx200 now and cannot find AUT... what happened? did I miss something?




I just googled the ASX 200 and the most recent list of companies  I found was for November 2010. It needs to be urgently updated to reflect the December re-balance.


----------



## brendoz (21 December 2010)

i have been with AUT since 16c, topping up at 24c, thean again at 75c, and again today at $2.10. i have not sold any off yet, and based on direction, i plan to hold for a while still. not looking forward to CGT!

what a fantastic forum, and thanks to the constant posts from many investors which reflect a STRONG understanding of the company, and continuously show sound opinions (for and against at times), based on solid research and good argument.

big thumbs up on the AUT thread and the site in general.


----------



## WRONG'UN (21 December 2010)

Well, how far AUT will or won't retrace is anyone's guess, but right now, judging by the spread of the Guppy multi moving averages, it's as extended as much as at any time in the last year - semi-log chart attached. ( Because of the huge gains made by AUT, I suggest that a semi-log scale is more appropriate than linear for viewing the chart) 
With the benefit of hindsight, the best times to have bought during the last year were when the short term (red) group bounced into the long term (white). Conversely, buying when they were extended, like now, would have resulted in a period of going sideways.
In the absence of an unforeseen event, such as a collapse in the oil price, the fundamentals point to a continuation of the pattern, so we can anticipate a period of consolidation to give the red and white mma groups a chance to converge again. At what price this will occur at is a guess, but $1.90 wouldn't surprise me.
By the way, that looks like an "evening star doji" reversal pattern with the latest three candlesticks.
(The green line is the 200 day sma)


----------



## AngusSmart (21 December 2010)

i think it gets updated this month..

i am waiting for my super fund to update also. they say its not in the asx 200 yet or something.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 December 2010)

In the announcement it said the re-balance would be at the end of business 17th December... last Friday.. mmm should be all good. If AUT ever gets near $2 again im gonna jump on it like a spider-monkey!


----------



## Magic Man (21 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> In the announcement it said the re-balance would be at the end of business 17th December... last Friday.. mmm should be all good. If AUT ever gets near $2 again im gonna jump on it like a spider-monkey!




spider monkey...
n.
Any of several tropical American monkeys of the genus Ateles, having long legs and a long prehensile tail and lacking a thumb. 

Has anyone got any thoughts on the production announcement made yesterday??


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 December 2010)

AUT was just on the Business Channel and was listed up a the #1 gainer for 2010 so far in the ASX200.  Awesome stuff was pleased to note they are actually in the top200 now.


----------



## AngusSmart (21 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> AUT was just on the Business Channel and was listed up a the #1 gainer for 2010 so far in the ASX200.  Awesome stuff was pleased to note they are actually in the top200 now.





did you see the percentage? over %600 i recall seeing.. not bad for a year.


----------



## Sharejon (22 December 2010)

That's fantastic news John, regarding AUT as the biggest gainer in 2010 in the asx200.

As for the production figures, I think they were very good. It's good to see Kowalik up and flowing. 2011 should be a cracker. I'll hold my breath but I wouldn't be surprised seeing the share reach $5. (depends on any further dilution after this CR).


----------



## cmxd (22 December 2010)

Good news. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates increased holding.


----------



## nioka (22 December 2010)

cmxd said:


> Good news. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates increased holding.




Not necessarily good news. They have been manipulating the SP by selling down and rebuying on the lows. I doubt they have finished this action. Probably some young gun will have a new Porsche for Xmas out of this. They are no asset to the short term position for LYC. Their pump and dump actions should be outlawed.

The only good thing they bring to the share is that their dumping does provide an opportunity for long termers to enter at a good price.

I'm holding long term on this one but do the odd trade to gain a few more freebies.


----------



## philly (22 December 2010)

nioka said:


> Not necessarily good news. They have been manipulating the SP by selling down and rebuying on the lows. I doubt they have finished this action. Probably some young gun will have a new Porsche for Xmas out of this. They are no asset to the short term position for LYC. Their pump and dump actions should be outlawed.
> 
> The only good thing they bring to the share is that their dumping does provide an opportunity for long termers to enter at a good price.
> 
> I'm holding long term on this one but do the odd trade to gain a few more freebies.




I've had a closer look at the Form 604 and note the following:
the notice covers the period 29/7/10 to 17/12/10
during that time 4 subsidiaries of JP Morgan have purchsed over 7.29m shares
for us Aussie holders the most significant purchase was JP Morgan Securities Australia Limited who on 17/12/10 purchased 2,210,346 shares at $A2.18.

I assume that this purchase was made in response to AUT entering the ASX 200.
I would expect more Form 604s to be lodged soon as all fund managers take a position in relation to AUT
Whether this proves to be good or bad only time will tell. IMHO fund managers who invest across the ASX 200 on behalf of clients are pretty conservative and are unlikely to pump and dump shares. Their stratergy is more likely is to hold and wait which probably suits given that as well as AUT they will be holding the big banks, the big miners and the big retailers.
I am a holder and enjoying the ride


----------



## Kremmen (22 December 2010)

nioka said:


> Not necessarily good news. They have been manipulating the SP by selling down and rebuying on the lows.




I agree in general, but they haven't just been doing that. They bought 2.2M recently at $2.18, so they are not going to want to sell those in a hurry.


----------



## nioka (22 December 2010)

Kremmen said:


> I agree in general, but they haven't just been doing that. They bought 2.2M recently at $2.18, so they are not going to want to sell those in a hurry.




I guess I am biased against them after seeing what they have done with other stocks. Someone is selling down AUT these last days and bots are active, which means that it is not just the small investors profit taking for funding Xmas.


----------



## skyQuake (22 December 2010)

Kremmen said:


> I agree in general, but they haven't just been doing that. They bought 2.2M recently at $2.18, so they are not going to want to sell those in a hurry.




Looks like JPM was buying on behalf if index funds which *had* to buy them as they became part of ASX 200


----------



## nioka (22 December 2010)

skyQuake said:


> Looks like JPM was buying on behalf if index funds which *had* to buy them as they became part of ASX 200




Have a close look at the list of their purchases. Not all were bought on market and some were the result of the "bonus" issue to "sophisticateds". What you have to watch for now is who sold down these last few days. Was it them profit taking to make the results for this quarter good. It still smells like a pump and dump with establishing good financials and minimising tax the true objective.


----------



## Assasin (22 December 2010)

nioka said:


> Have a close look at the list of their purchases. Not all were bought on market and some were the result of the "bonus" issue to "sophisticateds". What you have to watch for now is who sold down these last few days. Was it them profit taking to make the results for this quarter good. It still smells like a pump and dump with establishing good financials and minimising tax the true objective.




Absolutely agree that funds like JPM could have been selling down to make their 1/2 yearly's look good and then buy again.
But to me, that would be pretty smart with AUT considering the position AUT is in for growth next year.
To me, the current retrace was inevitable and considering the confidence in next year, a great chance to get more. I'm not experienced enough to calculate projected SP's but according to other respected posters we are far above where we were considering being at end of 2010 and I can't see it going bACK TO $1.59.
Thanks for everyones input, Merry Christmas.:xmaswave


----------



## cmxd (23 December 2010)

From Commsec "US crude *oil prices rose to two-year highs *on Wednesday. A sharp 5.3 million barrel slide in US crude oil inventories supported prices. US crude stockpiles have fallen by 19 million barrels in the past three weeks. The Nymex crude oil contract rose by US66 cents or 0.7pct to US$90.48 a barrel. "


----------



## condog (23 December 2010)

I suspect its the instos selling off. They can sell off prior to tranche if they have existing holdings to dispose off and then they retain the new ones they just got at a substantial discount. 

As far as JP Morgan, i dont think they have been churning too much or we would have seen a lot more variation in substantial holdings notices. 

As far as all the technical analysis. For my mind the best buying point was not the dips it was the 12 month low. AUT has been a strong buy and a strong buy and hold stock for the last 12 months. Anyone that couldnt see that has some serious learning to do. Right now its a red hot buy imo. Price $2 off its high, with valuation of $3.38. And serious growth plans for the coming 12 months. The only stock i see presently with even similar gains possible is SEA. 

right now i will probably get bagged for this but i still see big big  gains for the coming 12-36 months assuming a mild US, and global recovery continues. 

QE2 is ending and QE3 will need discussing seriously by april. But right now the outlook is somewhat ok for the US, and the PIGS are in serious trouble but presently stable. 

The bigger issue will be what action the US takes re continueing employment growth without dramatically increasing govt debt.


----------



## estseon (24 December 2010)

Sharejon said:


> That's fantastic news John, regarding AUT as the biggest gainer in 2010 in the asx200.
> 
> As for the production figures, I think they were very good. It's good to see Kowalik up and flowing. 2011 should be a cracker. I'll hold my breath but I wouldn't be surprised seeing the share reach $5. (depends on any further dilution after this CR).




Hi sharejon,

don't think that it will (depend upon level of CRs) if they continue to make 'accretive' acquisitions. The key is NAV per share. This is undoubtedly the best time for them to buy additional land as they can look forward to the re-categorisation of 3p reserves. Note that they were mindful to stress 'more of the same' - upping the % of what they have, addition of nearby (oilier? land) and same operator. Nice and easy to value.


----------



## estseon (24 December 2010)

philly said:


> I've had a closer look at the Form 604 and note the following:
> the notice covers the period 29/7/10 to 17/12/10
> during that time 4 subsidiaries of JP Morgan have purchsed over 7.29m shares
> for us Aussie holders the most significant purchase was JP Morgan Securities Australia Limited who on 17/12/10 purchased 2,210,346 shares at $A2.18.
> ...




Funds not invested might be nervous buying so close to the end of the year in case of falls in value in relatively thin trading. There might be renewed interest in January. On the other hand, the opposite might happen. The funds already invested might try to pump up the price with some buying on new year's eve. Impossible to predict. Holding seems to be the best strategy.https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif


----------



## condog (24 December 2010)

estseon said:


> Hi sharejon,
> 
> don't think that it will (depend upon level of CRs) if they continue to make 'accretive' acquisitions. The key is NAV per share. This is undoubtedly the best time for them to buy additional land as they can look forward to the re-categorisation of 3p reserves. Note that they were mindful to stress 'more of the same' - upping the % of what they have, addition of nearby (oilier? land) and same operator. Nice and easy to value.




Esteon as per usual you seem to make an absolutely brilliaant point here about opportunistic accreditive acquisitions. Right now whilst $24-$25K per acre isnt exactly cheap it is accreditive and it is rediculously cheap compared to if #P are converted to 2P or 1P . Also if NSAI do apply a 60, 50, or 40 acre well spacing the value of both AUT's NAV and the price per acre for any further acqusitions will go through the roof.

The unfortunate thing for us holders is all this future value has not yet been unlocked and thus any TO offer on AUT in the interum will also be opportunistic upon us. 

I think we can safely assume $338 as the valuation for any TO and a 25-40% premium upon that would be the TO price. and whilst that may sound very attractive to some. Imo its rediculously cheap for what AUT will imo unlock int he coming 12-24 months. 

Hence my opinion why as soon as this latest round of post CR selling dries up, we will imo see some very serious price rises in AUt towards the $3 mark.


----------



## shanti (24 December 2010)

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to All holders and warmest thank you to All who contributed to this thread especially Condog, it's been priceless. I'm a holder since 37c.
Shanti


----------



## estseon (25 December 2010)

condog said:


> Esteon as per usual you seem to make an absolutely brilliaant point here about opportunistic accreditive acquisitions. Right now whilst $24-$25K per acre isnt exactly cheap it is accreditive and it is rediculously cheap compared to if #P are converted to 2P or 1P . Also if NSAI do apply a 60, 50, or 40 acre well spacing the value of both AUT's NAV and the price per acre for any further acqusitions will go through the roof.
> 
> The unfortunate thing for us holders is all this future value has not yet been unlocked and thus any TO offer on AUT in the interum will also be opportunistic upon us.
> 
> ...




Hi Condog,

The volume doesn't appear to have been particularly high and fund managers such as JPM have been accumulating some. I think that we are safe for the moment. In the meantime, the Board has been working hard to improve the valuation by readying it for a TSX listing. It would not stop a determined bidder but we are still holding only minority interests in the acreages. That might rule out the really big wallets.

There is, of course, tranche 2 of the placing still to come - that cannot happen before 24 January 2011. That will take us close (hopefully) to the second listing and a reserves report. Then a revised broker's note and an upward adjustment on the target price. A predator might have to pay somewhere in excess of $1.5bn for the increased share capital, which will trim down the list of potential candidates.

I think that we may be left in peace for the while to accumulate value. The partners will be busy drilling to secure the leases for at least a year (mid 2012 was suggested in AUT's 15 December presentation) and I can't see them looking to sell on before then. Once they have, though, they will have something rather valuable, which they might not be able to enhance further. By then the 3p reserves should have been recategorised as 2p and they will have a far better idea and pool of data from which to base estimates of decline rates and commercial life of the wells. They might even experiment with some re-working as COP did on its first vertical in Live Oak.

Plenty to muse about over the Christmas beers.

Have a good one and good luck for 2011


----------



## condog (25 December 2010)

estseon said:


> there is, of course, tranche 2 of the placing still to come - that cannot happen before 24 January 2011.




 My magical CGT date is 20th January, so thats lovely imo.



estseon said:


> Once they have, though, they will have something rather valuable, which they might not be able to enhance further.




Yes as we approach that milestone, managment will be actively looking for an acquisition or acerage to unlock new value and a CR would definitely be on the cards again. EKA at some point would be an obvious acquisition. 

It does seem on past recent history most acquisitions by COONOC etc have been just over the billion mark. The billion mark is an obvious point as any company that  makes it past that point is clearly on a winner, as such finance and CR's apply a bit of a derisked weighting once over the $1B mark. Ive heard it said that its far easier to borrow $1.2B then 800M for this exact reason.



estseon said:


> By then the 3p reserves should have been recategorised as 2p and they will have a far better idea and pool of data from which to base estimates of decline rates and commercial life of the wells. They might even experiment with some re-working as COP did on its first vertical in Live Oak.




Hopefully they will then make a shift to prove 40 acre well spacing accross all four leases which would be a huge increase in EUR and NAV. Virtually a doubling if successful. There are still plenty of trump cards and anyone thinking (not aimed at you esteon, or anyone in particular)AUT is approaching slow growth may be very wrong. 

Accellerated drill programs can also untap huge val;ue as they bring forward cash flows and they reduce the administrative costs : ROE  ratio to make the company a far better performer. For example a company with $5M annual admin and remuneration costs with $25M annual revenue is worth significantly less then the same company with $40M or $50 M Revenue


----------



## condog (25 December 2010)

From Bloomberg.com

Aurora Oil to Seek Further Texas Shale Gas Acquisitions, May Raise Debt
By James Paton - Dec 24, 2010 2:55 PM GMT+1100 


Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd., the best performer in Australia’s 200-member benchmark index this year, plans to raise as much as $100 million in debt next year as it hunts for further Texas shale acquisitions. 

The company, which has $95 million in cash, intends to participate in drilling about 60 new wells in 2011, Jon Stewart, chairman of the Perth-based explorer, said by phone. Aurora is weighing more Eagle Ford Shale transactions after the completion today of a $120 million cash purchase of interests in the Sugarkane field. 

“We have an ambitious outlook,” he said. “We think there are further opportunities for us and want to stay fairly close to home. We’re very interested in staying in the Eagle Ford Shale and in the part we understand and have experience in.”




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...drilling-debt-in-ambitious-2011-update1-.html


----------



## condog (25 December 2010)

From
Sydney Morning Herald 

Mining minnows triumph Adam Courtenay 
December 21, 2010

.......blah blah blah then

The top three are Aurora Oil & Gas, up 563 per cent; Intrepid Mines, up 548 per cent and Coalspur Mines up 415 per cent. 

Then ignorant crap about how it cant continue......


----------



## Mister Mark (25 December 2010)

Merry christmas to all, have a happy healthy and wealthy new year, thank yo to all who post, the education and profit are of equal importance.

If we can get to $5 by next christmas we should all party together and put some faces to the typo.

Thank you all again


----------



## easylikesunday (26 December 2010)

If you look at the 12 month chart, everytime AUT hits a new high it re-traces 10-20c and then takes off again. Pretty consistant. Happened 7-8 times this year.

After a high of $2.24 (at close) we dropped back to $1.98 and we now we sit on $2.10 gaining slowly. I was going to top up if it dropped below $1.95 but I think I have missed the boat on that one. 

Hope we all had a good Xmas and enjoy the day today. Boxing day would be the most relaxing day of the year I reckon..


----------



## condog (26 December 2010)

easylikesunday said:


> If you look at the 12 month chart, everytime AUT hits a new high it re-traces 10-20c and then takes off again. Pretty consistant. Happened 7-8 times this year.
> 
> After a high of $2.24 (at close) we dropped back to $1.98 and we now we sit on $2.10 gaining slowly. I was going to top up if it dropped below $1.95 but I think I have missed the boat on that one.
> 
> Hope we all had a good Xmas and enjoy the day today. Boxing day would be the most relaxing day of the year I reckon..




Theres a very good reason for that. Every time we have run hard managment have done a CR and pulled of some deal to either accelerate drilling or add NAV or EUR somehow. 

Its a tighly held stock other then the smucks who get it heavily discounted every CR, but hey **** happens, so bad luck. 

We are approaching tightly held territory again imo and will once again run hard. 

Those articles above on Bloomberg seem to indicat after our next run Jon will once again do a CR and buy some opportunistic acerage or coy. 

As you say its not rocket science, here we go again.


----------



## condog (26 December 2010)

On a totally different note.

Oils $90 

Yet we have:
 PIGS
US economic constipation
Soveriegn debt issues
China raising interest ratees

Now if i was a smart punter i would be asking myself. Why is oil so expensive when all this other worrying garbage is around. ??

hmmm it aint rocket science. Brace yourselves imo. And owning a few oil stock may just be a good strategy.


----------



## philly (26 December 2010)

condog said:


> From Bloomberg.com
> 
> Aurora Oil to Seek Further Texas Shale Gas Acquisitions, May Raise Debt
> By James Paton - Dec 24, 2010 2:55 PM GMT+1100
> ...


----------



## estseon (26 December 2010)

condog said:


> From Bloomberg.com
> 
> Aurora Oil to Seek Further Texas Shale Gas Acquisitions, May Raise Debt
> By James Paton - Dec 24, 2010 2:55 PM GMT+1100
> ...




Good spot, condog.

I like Jon Stewart's focus "the part we understand and have experience in".

I don't know about EKA (corporate) but EKA's 6.25% and EME's 3% could be easily mopped up within that budget leaving quite a bit of cash for other things. That depends on price (AUT will not buy unless the deal results in immediate increased NAV/share assuming only the re-categorisation of 3p reserves into 2p - that's the message from the last deal). It also depends upon AUT's appetite for the S/L acreage as compared to further acquisitions in the oilier corridor.

Both EKA and EME have other projects to develop and the cash proceeds would facilitate that.

Pure speculation, of course. But another lesson from the deal just done is AUT's desire to stay with Hilcorp as operator of its acreages for the time being.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (27 December 2010)

condog said:


> On a totally different note.
> 
> Oils $90
> 
> ...





Oil would be high partly due to the big freeze in Russia etc...


----------



## condog (27 December 2010)

estseon said:


> Good spot, condog.
> 
> I like Jon Stewart's focus "the part we understand and have experience in".
> 
> ...




Yes i wrote to Jon Stewart suggesting such an acqusition a few months ago. I deliberately asked him not to reply as it may breach ASX rules. 

In particular i see EKA as an immediately accreditive acqusition , up to about 40c ish.

EME, i havent done the sums on.


----------



## condog (27 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Oil would be high partly due to the big freeze in Russia etc...




The big freeze has probably added $2-$3 max imo. But think about it. If oils $90 right now with all the peripheral growth/debt worries that exist. Imagine what it will be if the US recovers significantly, or china and india cant curb thier growth. 

$90 oil right now is rediculous. Imo the primary reason is the $USD has been devalued by the relentless printing press, hence the world is awash with USD, making all scarce commodities far more expensive. 

Secondly the world is just starting imo to factor in scarity of oil. We have high inventories, yet oil is high. thats un recdedented imo. Its also unprecendented to have such high oil prices when economically the world is only just ticking along after the GFC. 

The reason is the smart players know that oil demand is with in a pufteenth  of exceeding supply , and once it does someone is going to miss out on the oil they want, creating significantly higher oil as the bid it higher to attain what they need. 

If the US continues to add jobs, EU manages to bailout the PIGS, and China manges to curb inflation without derailing its economic growth super cycle too much, then imo we are heading toward $150+ oil within 6-12 months. This is an opinion only so do not make decisions based on this opinion.


----------



## condog (27 December 2010)

Courtesy of Luvsfootie in the SSN thread
the entire post from this point on is  quote


December 26, 2010 at 7:45 am

Several OPEC ministers said they believe $100 a barrel oil prices would represent a proper balance between supply and demand.

OPEC will do nothing to increase production before mid-year 2011, and it may not act then. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated Friday that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries doesn?t need to meet again before June, Dow Jones reports

The global economy can withstand an oil price of $100 a barrel, Kuwait?s oil minister said on Saturday, as other exporters indicated OPEC may decide against increasing output through 2011 as the market was well supplied, Reuters writes

Except for a brief period last week, crude oil prices have been rising steadily from around $88.50/barrel to nearly $91/barrel on the NYMEX. That?s a rise of more than 2.8% in less than a week. The rise appears to be based on an expectation that demand for crude is picking up.


If that is accurate, then a report from the US Energy Information Administration should continue to push crude prices up. The EIA reports that crude imports rose an average of 1.1 million barrels/day last week and commercial inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels from the previous week. The DOE data showed a draw to crude stockpiles.


Gasoline inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels last week, and total petroleum products supplied averaged 19.7 million barrels/day, up 4.1% from the same period a year ago. Demand for gasoline averaged 9.2 million barrels/day, up 1.8% from a year ago.


Platts reported recently that analysts were expecting a drawdown of 2.4 million barrels in crude oil stocks, less than half the actual number.


Better expectations for the US economy combined with colder temperatures are the likeliest candidates for the drawdown in crude stocks and rising prices prices for crude in the US.


Chinese officials have raised the price of refined products there by 4%. Platts estimates that Chinese demand in November averaged 9.3 million barrels/day. Demand is expected to continue growing in China, and the government is raising prices now in an effort to curb the growth in demand.



If most of these factors come together with any unexpected reduction in supply, crude could be at $100 before the end of January which would be a huge threat to the global economic recovery.

http://247wallst.com/2010/12/26/opec-oil-ministers-bless-100-oil/


----------



## condog (27 December 2010)

Imo it doesnt post a threat to global recovery to about $140-$150 per boe. 

And from an AUT investor perspective, if you have enough oil stocks you will be so far ahead you wont care about a global recovery.

Theres also the theory that its a self correcting prophecy and oil will retreat the moment global demand is affected in the slightest.


----------



## shanti (29 December 2010)

I just received  Aut General Meeting paperwork with Proxy Form. I'm only a newbie so forgive my ignorance but I can not understand why managment decided on such excessively discounted price ($1.60) when the price at the time this was decided was already close to $2.20.
Why would shareholders vote further in support of such excessive discount to parties that will make unreasonable profits by immediately dumping without having shouldered any risk whatsoever.
I for one do not feel inclined to support this.
If shareholders don't support would managment come up with more appropriate pricing?
Any thoughts?


----------



## condog (30 December 2010)

shanti said:


> If shareholders don't support would managment come up with more appropriate pricing?
> Any thoughts?




The VWAP at the time was only just over $1.60, as it raced up to $2.20 on light volume immediately after the Halt, compared to the previous few days, according to Jon Stewart. It as trading at around $1.60 - $1.70 just prior to the halt. 

You make a very valid point, and yes shareholders should consider voting no. It wont get up, but it will send a clear message that we want more appropriately priced CR's.

Managment needs to take into account sp growth after the announcment .


----------



## Dukey (30 December 2010)

condog said:


> The VWAP at the time was only just over $1.60, as it raced up to $2.20 on light volume immediately after the Halt, compared to the previous few days, according to Jon Stewart. It as trading at around $1.60 - $1.70 just prior to the halt.
> 
> You make a very valid point, and yes shareholders should consider voting no. It wont get up, but it will send a clear message that we want more appropriately priced CR's.
> 
> Managment needs to take into account sp growth after the announcment .




sp is certainly holding up very strongly and higher than i thought it would following the cap raising. I kind of figured about $2 might be the support mark... but then the purchase is effectively increasing reserves by 50% isn't it? ...  so maybe thats what is being taken into account.

... waiting for a slight pullback to buy more... waiting...
 -D


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 December 2010)

A little bragging new article for you AUT holders out there and a double for the SEA holders too... 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...d-losers-of-2010/story-e6frg9lo-1225978663161

Nothing we didn't already know, but the more we see AUT (and SEA  ) in the news the better for us.... especially when they are getting good wraps.


----------



## estseon (31 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> A little bragging new article for you AUT holders out there and a double for the SEA holders too...
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...d-losers-of-2010/story-e6frg9lo-1225978663161
> 
> Nothing we didn't already know, but the more we see AUT (and SEA  ) in the news the better for us.... especially when they are getting good wraps.




The Board has worked hard to achieve that extraordinary growth in SP and Mkt Cap. Good for them and lucky for us.

Note that you are in Queensland - hope that things are OK in your area - the pictures are horrendous. There's some pretty weird weather around - we've had (S.E. England) the coldest December for over 100 years.


----------



## estseon (31 December 2010)

shanti said:


> I just received  Aut General Meeting paperwork with Proxy Form. I'm only a newbie so forgive my ignorance but I can not understand why managment decided on such excessively discounted price ($1.60) when the price at the time this was decided was already close to $2.20.
> Why would shareholders vote further in support of such excessive discount to parties that will make unreasonable profits by immediately dumping without having shouldered any risk whatsoever.
> I for one do not feel inclined to support this.
> If shareholders don't support would managment come up with more appropriate pricing?
> Any thoughts?



 The 2 tranche raising was announced on 15 December and AUT had been flat-lining at about 180c since the announcement of the land acquisition on 10 December. The institutions will have committed before the 10 December although the price might have been fixed later by formula. The max discount was about 20c: that is, 12.5%. We've seen it move that far over the xmas period. The instis are on risk until 25 Jan. They committed 6 - 7 weeks before they would have the shares to trade. Consider - would you commit your cash on that basis before seeing the market reaction to the deal that period of time before you would have the shares to trade for less than a 12.5% discount? How would you feel if you were pushed into a lower discount and the shares were trading at less than your subscription price before you had a chance to sell? Would you support any future raising if that is the case?


----------



## Magic Man (31 December 2010)

Hey there.
Just a quick question for everyone. I have heard that sea is about 12 to 16 months behind aut. Realistically is it possible for sea to be in the same position as aut in 12 months time. What does sea have to do to be in the same position and is it realistically possible??


----------



## condog (31 December 2010)

magic man its already put on 760% in 12 months so tecnically its already an AUt in terms of growth.

On most metrics SEA is very cheap.

It has 150,000 approx acres and most of it is very high quality. If it can sure up these reserves SEA will be very valuable imo. 

SEA also has an uncanny ability to pull of amazing deals in on selling early stage acerage. If it can continue this trend its growth could be staggering.


----------



## condog (1 January 2011)

Not sure if anyone mentioned

Three new well apps by Hilcorp on the 14th, 16th and 17th Dec

Jordan Unit

Turnbull 5H

Hollman Unit


----------



## condog (3 January 2011)

PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby From: The Australian January 03, 2011.

(continued)

Analysts did pretty well too, and it's probably worth listening to Dave Wall at Hartleys in 2011. In July, Pure Speculation had him recommending Aurora Oil & Gas (AUT). Wall put a valuation of $1.64 a share on the US shale play. It closed on Friday at $2.24, the year's best-performing stock.

Credit also to the reader who bombarded us with emails about AUT. He was right: we should have paid more attention to that story, but investors had been burned so many times by US oil and gas stories from our juniors.

continued)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/


Hahahahha gues who that was that gave him all the emails 

He would have doen his readers well if he published more then one mention of AUT....
Kind a makes me chuckle  A LOT.


----------



## Magic Man (3 January 2011)

Haha Nice one Condog. Id like to know his new valuation now..


----------



## trader8888 (3 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Haha Nice one Condog. Id like to know his new valuation now..




When AUT reached his target he downgraded AUT from "HOLD" to "REDUCE" now we are $2.24 about a 60c premium to when he said to start selling. Really shows you how much he knows. For me i think the real ones to listen to is EUROZ they seem to be very tight with Jon, and have a very good understanding on the EFS.


----------



## Magic Man (3 January 2011)

what was the Euroz valuation again?


----------



## trader8888 (3 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> what was the Euroz valuation again?




From memory it was around $3.40


----------



## philly (3 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> what was the Euroz valuation again?






trader8888 said:


> From memory it was around $3.40




Do they put a time frame on when they think this target will be achieved? 
It closed at $2.24 on 31-12-10 so $3.40 is a jump of a bit over 50%.
Given that AUT has recently acquired extra acreage and that drilling in to step up in 2011 is it realistic to expect the target to be achieved by end of the 1st Q of 2011?

And well done Condog on outsmarting the smarties. Your knowledge of the EFS is greatly appreciated


----------



## prgudula (4 January 2011)

Why Oil Stocks Are Better Investment Than Crude Futures

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40893215


----------



## brendoz (4 January 2011)

i have to agree, Euroz reports have been fantastic, there is plenty of info there, and they have an ability to dumb it down and summarise it for people like myself 
im pretty sure their last report was a target between $2.97 and $3.38. 

i was also told by a friend that AUT could now be geared at 40%- im not so sure though, my commsec account certainly doesnt allow any margin lending on AUT just yet.. does anyone else know anything about this?

forgive me for my ignorance, but can anyone here give me a quick run down on rules regarding participation in capital raising- my understanding is if you have participated within a 12 month period on that particular stock, then you cannot participate within that timeframe, is this correct? i also think i read somewhere in this thread that this rule can be overturned by a board vote? im not sure, but if someone could shed some light it would be great!


----------



## condog (4 January 2011)

hahhah  yeh out smarting the smarties. Some times the smarties arent as smart as you think.

Theres been plenty of so called smart people have made very bad calls on AUT. Fact is it proved them all wrong, and its set to do it all over again, for those saying get out now.


----------



## mir (5 January 2011)

brendoz
 was also told by a friend that AUT could now be geared at 40%- I'm not so sure though, my commsec account certainly doesn't allow any margin lending on AUT just yet.. does anyone else know anything about this?

leverage equities, anz & now nab


----------



## nioka (5 January 2011)

condog said:


> hahhah  yeh out smarting the smarties. Some times the smarties arent as smart as you think.
> 
> Theres been plenty of so called smart people have made very bad calls on AUT. Fact is it proved them all wrong, and its set to do it all over again, for those saying get out now.




Depends on what you/they did with the money. The few I have sold to date were exchanged mainly for LYC, the "new oil". Lyc has performed better for me than AUT over that period and I expect that it will continue to do that over time. It also spreads the risk by not having too many of your eggs in one basket. AUT has performed well but it is not the only pebble on the beach with a few more outshining it. While the gap with EKA has widened I do expect it to narrow again and I will exchange more AUT for EKA.


----------



## brendoz (5 January 2011)

MIR- I'm pretty sure their account allowing the gearing is through macquarie. Just recently, I have also seen there are CFD's available on aurora.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (5 January 2011)

I would guess today's drop in share price was due to Oil prices below 90c and a bit of profit taking. Was disappointed to see it drop over 10c today though, especially with limited sellers it seemed.


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

AUT still looks great to me. Euroz have had that $3.38 Target out for a while now and to me its worth every cent of that. Extra rig should be on site sooon and hopefully full time frac crew is very soon as well. 

Id expect an operational update very soon that should also help.


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

nioka said:


> The few I have sold to date were exchanged mainly for LYC, the "new oil". Lyc has performed better for me than AUT over that period and I expect that it will continue to do that over time.




Why you little cross promotor you....lol

LYC has performed well but its only outperformed AUT in the last month or so, and it really looks like its gone to hard and is pulling back. 

AUT on the other hand has been held back by a bungy chord called the Capital Raising, and when the bungy cord of sellers disipates, imo, once more just like all the previous we will take off like the bungy chord broke. 

I know which one id rather be in, AUT is a much lower risk play imo and more underpriced as well. But hey thats just a very biased opinion of mine.


----------



## philly (6 January 2011)

The Chineses are interested in the Eagle Ford.
Source: upstreamonline. 5/1/11

China thirst drives market boom
China’s newfound appetite for oil and gas projects in the Americas drove exploration and production acquisitions in the fourth quarter, according to a new report. 

*An industry-wide move towards shale plays containing liquids also characterised one of the strongest quarters in recent years for acquisitions in the sector. *

Fourth-quarter deals worth a combined $73 billion brought last year’s total value of acquisitions to $238 billion, UK analyst Evaluate Energy said in its quarterly review published this week. 

The annual figure compared to a 2009 total of $151 billion. 

China’s shift in focus from Africa to South America and Canada accounted for some of the quarter’s – and the year’s – biggest deals, including Sinopec’s $7.1-billion purchase of a 40% stake in Spanish player Repsol. 

That deal capped a flurry of fourth-quarter activity by Chinese companies in Latin America. It followed Sinopec’s $2.5-billion purchase of Occidental’s Argentinean exploration and production portfolio and Bridas Corporation’s $7-billion acquisition of BP’s 60% stake in Argentine producer Pan American Energy. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) owns half of Bridas. 

The Pan American deal was the most significant in the $21 billion worth of divestitures BP conducted since the Macondo blowout in April. 

“Although the year was again dominated by Chinese companies acquiring assets, this actually suited many IOCs (international oil companies) who were looking to divest or reshape their asset portfolios,” said Eoin Coyne, Evaluate Energy’s mergers and acquisitions expert. 

China’s government also entered into a number of loans-for-oil agreements worldwide last year in an effort to supply its booming economy while deflecting any potential hostility at another perceived Chinese asset grab, Evaluate Energy said. 

Shale continued to invigorate the exploration and production sector last year, but the fourth quarter saw more of a shift towards shale oil as a driver of acquisition deals, the analysts said. 

*The Eagle Ford shale play in southern Texas drew particular attention during the quarter, with 10 deals totalling $4.5 billion involving the play’s liquids-rich portion. *

A $1 billion farm-in deal between South African integrated company Sasol and Talisman Energy in the Canadian company’s Montney shale play was further evidence of shale oil driving acquisitions, the analysts said. 

“The key reason why Sasol was taken on as a partner is due to the company being amongst the global leaders in gas-to-liquids technology,” they said, adding that the prominence of shale oil is due to the large difference between US oil and natural gas prices. 

Overall, shale gas still accounted for the majority of the $7.4 billion worth of shale-focused deals in the fourth quarter. Chevron’s $4.3 billion acquisition of Atlas Energy provided a considerable chunk of that total. 

Published: 05 January 2011 20:55 GMT


----------



## nioka (6 January 2011)

condog said:


> Why you little cross promotor you....lol




Guilty as suggested and something I am not usually associated with but in this case it was necessary to prove the point. You are right it was only in the last month or so but that is also the point. It is only in the last month or so that I made the switch. 

I used to trade between AUT, ADI and EKA as a trio but AWE spoilt that game. EKA is dragging the chain a little and hasn't the volume necessary for easy trading so I introduced the "new oil" into the equation. Although I have bought a few EKA today. 

If I find a better investment than anything I hold, including AUT then I will change. (As for cross promoting, check out EDE.)

I never have a love affair with stocks, you know the saying "never fall in love with a prostitute".


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

Yes hilly i think we are going to see new highs for chinese resource acquisitions. One reason why imo is that China no longer want to hold as many US dollars. And given theres no other legitimate global reserve currency as yet, and the worrysome Euro is wobbling as well, Chinas best bet is to buy the one thing that goes up when currencies go down, resources. 

So i guess im saying anyone who thinks chinas acqusitions where big last year aint seen nothing yet. 

And the more the US fed prints the more we will see China rushing to resources rather then holding US dollars.


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

Nioka , still plenty of growth left in this thing yet. The 50% reserve upgrade has hardly been factored in, let alone the reduction of well spacing or the much higher indicitive oil prices for 2010. 

If those oil markets catch on about the Iran supply issues we will see $100+ in a flash imo. Right now they are not factoring it in. But if Iran cant sell its oil we have a major supply constraint. Watch this space carefully. 


Euroz put $3.38 on it some time ago now so lets just wait see.


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

Euroz have updated valuation to $3.60 based on the higher oil prices of late, plus what they forsee going forward.


----------



## easylikesunday (6 January 2011)

Very good news for AUT holders!

Been playing with the charts and if the current trend can continue and the sellers start dying off, I think by mid-March we could see a price around $2.80 - $3.00 with support at around $2.40

Obviously thats my opinion, and a beginners one at that!


----------



## philly (6 January 2011)

condog said:


> Euroz have updated valuation to $3.60 based on the higher oil prices of late, plus what they forsee going forward.




Hi Condog,
when analysts value a share do they put a time frame on when they think this target will be achieved? 
It closed at $2.24 on 31-12-10 so $3.60 is a jump of a bit over 60%.
Given that AUT has recently acquired extra acreage, drilling is to step up in 2011 and the price of oil is also on the up is it realistic to expect the target to be achieved by end of the 1st Q of 2011 or by mid year?


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

Generally they either quote it as a target or a valuation. If its a valuation it means now. If its a target, they generally mnetion the time frame, and in Euroz terms its generally a 6 month target. 

Euroz have this as a valuation and target meaning imo ots $3.60 sometime between now and 6 months. 

Hope that helps , its just my opinion, others may not agree.


----------



## condog (6 January 2011)

philly said:


> Hi Condog,
> when analysts value a share do they put a time frame on when they think this target will be achieved?
> It closed at $2.24 on 31-12-10 so $3.60 is a jump of a bit over 60%.
> Given that AUT has recently acquired extra acreage, drilling is to step up in 2011 and the price of oil is also on the up is it realistic to expect the target to be achieved by end of the 1st Q of 2011 or by mid year?




Yes once the post Cr selling os gone id be surprised not to see it banging on The $2.80 to $3.20 mark,.


----------



## philly (6 January 2011)

condog said:


> Generally they either quote it as a target or a valuation. If its a valuation it means now. If its a target, they generally mnetion the time frame, and in Euroz terms its generally a 6 month target.
> 
> Euroz have this as a valuation and target meaning imo ots $3.60 sometime between now and 6 months.
> 
> Hope that helps , its just my opinion, others may not agree.




Thanks, Condog. As always greatly appreciated. I'm in no hurry to sell - my CGT date is not until 19-4-11 - and even by then I would anticipate plenty of gas left in AUT.
No I think I'll ride this one for as long as I am able. Cheers


----------



## Magic Man (7 January 2011)

Hey Condog.

Could you please explain the announcement AUT made today and what it means for the future. thanks.


----------



## philly (7 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Hey Condog.
> 
> Could you please explain the announcement AUT made today and what it means for the future. thanks.




Hey Magic Man I'm no Condog [and I am also interested in his views] but IMHO this is fantastic news for AUT.
In Longhorn Turnbull #4 is producing 1260 boepd, another well is being fracture stimulated and another well is being drilled.
In Ipanema Franke #1H is produicing 796 boepd, Patino #1H is producing 856 boepd and another well is being drilled.

All that is very very good but wait there is more...
In the next 6 weeks they will have 4 rigs available and *each* is scheduled to drill a new well *each *month ie 4 *new *wells per month.

With such news it would not surprise if a re rating is emminent. It makes the $3.60 target set by Euroz very achievable by mid year. Well done management. A very happy holder


----------



## Sdajii (7 January 2011)

Very exciting announcement! The flow rates are great, even on restricted chokes we're getting flow rates which would be good by the standards elsewhere without the restriction, and it will mean lower decline rates! That's brilliant...



philly said:


> All that is very very good but wait there is more...
> In the next 6 weeks they will have 4 rigs available and *each* is scheduled to drill a new well *each *month ie 4 *new *wells per month.




...but this is the bit which really had me excited when I read it. Four new wells every month, starting in six weeks! Having that confirmed is awesome.

I'm a very happy holder


----------



## philly (7 January 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Very exciting announcement! The flow rates are great, even on restricted chokes we're getting flow rates which would be good by the standards elsewhere without the restriction, and it will mean lower decline rates! That's brilliant...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Fair to say that the market was excited by todays announcement as well. The SP closed at $2.31 [up 15 cents or 6.94% for the day ] on volumes over 1.6m shares. The next 6 weeks will fly by and we'll have to get used to 4 new wells being drilled every month.: 2011 looks like a bonza year for AUT. A very very happy holder


----------



## condog (7 January 2011)

Courtesy of the ever reliable MIR

latests update from euroz

Price Target: $3.60/sh



Reason For Update: Ipanema & Longhorn Operations Update



What We Know: 

AUT has released IP and 60-day production data from the Longhorn and Ipanama AMIs.

Patino-1H (Ipanema - 30% WI) production to 60-days totalled 25.8kbbls and 245mmscf on highly restricted choke.

Average production of 9.92mmscfe/d (431bopd and 4.08mmscf/d) vs. av. Of the first 30days of production of 9.86mmscfe/d (3.7mmscf/d gas and 438bopd oil).

Franke-1H (Ipanema - 30% WI) av. production of 584bopd and 2.03mmscf/d on a highly restricted choke setting for first 10 days.

Turnbull-4H (Longhorn - 25% WI) av. production of 1058bopd and 1.94mmscf/d for the first 10 days production on a highly restricted choke setting.

Sienkiewicz-1H (Longhorn - 25% WI) is undergoing fracture stimulation.

Yosko-1H (Longhorn - 31.9% WI) is drilling ahead.

Two new rigs have commenced in the field (4 total); we expect addition of at least a further two over the next few months.

What We Think:

AUT?s latest results were ahead of our forecast.

The Patino well showed negligible decline in terms of average oil production(438bopd to 431bopd), and increasing av. gas production (3.7mmscf/d to 4.08mmscf/d) from 30 to 60 days.

Similarly, the Turnbull-4H is performing ahead of expectation given the performance of the neighbouring Turnbull-1,2 and 3H wells.

The decline rates clearly benefit from the premium reservoir characteristics of AUT Sugarkane Field interests, noting that tubing head pressures remain exceptionally high.

Gross revenues from Patino-1H (at current spot prices) total US$3.3m for the first 60 days (vs. US$8m well AFE).

This continues to strengthen expectations of circa 6mnth pay-back at current commodity prices.

We estimate field production is now in excess of 10,000kboe/d.

This augers well for AUT to achieve net share production of +2.5kboe/d by mid-CY?11 and exit the CY at 5kboe/d.

We have recently revised our long-term price assumption to US$100/bbl from CY?12. 

Our AUT valuation increases to $3.60/sh.

We highlight the leverage AUT offers to rising oil prices; applying US$120/bbl long-term underpins a $4.40/sh valuation.

The strength of the production data bodes well for the revised reserves statement in the Mar Q.

With around 2.5x more wells on production at Dec 31 (vs Jun 30 for the July statement), we anticipate a similar factor will be reflected in the increases to 1P and 2P inventories.

Additionally, the 60 well programme in CY?11 should result in most of the 84mmboe of 3P reserves converting to 2P over the next 12mnths.

Furthermore, tighter development well spacing (vertically and horizontally), continued out-performance vs. the Netherland&Sewell type-curve, and higher EURs encourages us to see significant upside to 3P reserves can be realized over the next few years.

Investment Case:

The latest operational results continue to build on the quality argument for AUT?s Sugarkane Field interests: Results continue to track ahead of our forecasts. The results build upon a highly accretive acquisition that will result in a 50% increase to AUT?s current acreage position in the field. 

Forthcoming reserves statements in the Mar Q will consolidate the value potential on an EV:2P reserve basis. Beyond which growing production - +5000boep/d end CY?11 increasing to a peak of +20kboe/d by CY?17 ? makes for a compelling investment proposition. Buy with a valuation of $3.60/sh.


----------



## condog (7 January 2011)

Hi Guys welcome back for the new year.

To me Turnbull 4 was excellent, some of the others where acceptable by AUT standards, whilst being exceptional by most others standards.

Good to see two rigs working hard, the frac crew on the job and 2 more rigs coming..

For me the biggest thing in todays announcment was the fact within around 6 weeks we will have 4 rigs drilling away, which will basically mean a well a week on average which is incredible in terms of growth. 

Do the sums , those are some pretty amazing boepd to be adding at a well a week .

Right now imo AUT is priced perfectly for its current value, but has absolutely ZERO growth factored into its sp .
And blind freddy can tell you this thing should carry a heavy growth premium.


----------



## condog (10 January 2011)

The pre-open volumes look good with 700k buyers, 159k sellers and 2.40 indicative. Hopefully the sell side stays tight for a while so we can be rewarded for the increase in acerage and reserves, that so far hasnt been fully factored in.


----------



## Magic Man (10 January 2011)

I think its looking good condog.. when the price first spiked over $2, the sellers offloaded alot of stock.. since then the price has been increasing and the sellers side has stayed steady, so good signs.


----------



## WRONG'UN (10 January 2011)

Update of the AUT EKA relationship - also posted on the EKA thread.
............................................................................................


----------



## condog (10 January 2011)

This may draw some chriticism, but ive now put a personal target of $5.50 to $6.39 for Dec 31st 2011 on AUT.

Please note, do not rely on this, this is simply my personal amatuer opinion. Done in my spreadsheets i been using all along, with a discounted cash flow method as previously explained. Based on 350boe pd for 2010 wells, 500 for 2011 wells $80 oil and $3.75 gas @ 1500gas/day

Note using sam model that predicts $2.22 right now. Does not use reserves at all.

With 4 new wells a month its pretty easy to see where the value will be added from.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 January 2011)

condog said:


> This may draw some chriticism, but ive now put a personal target of $5.50 to $6.39 for Dec 31st 2011 on AUT.
> 
> Please note, do not rely on this, this is simply my personal amatuer opinion. Done in my spreadsheets i been using all along, with a discounted cash flow method as previously explained. Based on 350boe pd for 2010 wells, 500 for 2011 wells $80 oil and $3.75 gas @ 1500gas/day
> 
> ...




Stunning Condog.. I can believe that though. $80 Oil is very modest when taking into consideration a lower US unemployment rate and the US recovery continuing!!


----------



## Sdajii (10 January 2011)

I agree, John, but on the other side of the coin there is more growth ahead of us now than there will be in 12 months and the market is taking that into account to some extent. It's very difficult to predict something like this a year in advance, but all in all my guesswork (I won't glorify it by calling it calculations or reliable predictions  ) gives me a similar figure to Condog's. I'm 'guessing' about $4-5. Of course, I'm hoping Condog is closer to the money, and if either of us is in the ball park we'll both be smiling in a year.


----------



## condog (10 January 2011)

Yeh ive deliberately used conservative flows and prices. If im wrong id much rather be wrong on the low side then on the high side. The reality is though there seems to be plenty more left in this one.


----------



## condog (10 January 2011)

Sdajii said:


> I agree, John, but on the other side of the coin there is more growth ahead of us now than there will be in 12 months and the market is taking that into account to some extent. It's very difficult to predict something like this a year in advance, but all in all my guesswork (I won't glorify it by calling it calculations or reliable predictions  ) gives me a similar figure to Condog's. I'm 'guessing' about $4-5. Of course, I'm hoping Condog is closer to the money, and if either of us is in the ball park we'll both be smiling in a year.




Sdajii if the eagleford was hit and mis, it would be difficult, but its proven to be a reliable hit. Its just the flows that vary. And those flows have proven to be reasonably predictable. 

So estimating it is not too difficult. But hence why ive used conservative figures, as id rather be under then over.


----------



## condog (11 January 2011)

A good start for AUT pumping out a new high.

However, Personally im unsure why right now anyone at all would be selling, when clearly the value of our acqusition is still not built in to the sp. 

The Euroz valuation of $3.38 is imo on the conservative side for the post acqusition sp , and hence i would envisage that anyone selling right now is NOT imo getting value. 

Id suggest thats why the buying is so strong, as anyone casting the ruler over AUT right now sees a very derisked bargain imo. I mean theres almost $1 profit to be made per share just to reach Euroz valuation, and track record suggest Euroz valuations have been pretty easy for AUT to attain.


----------



## Sdajii (11 January 2011)

condog said:


> Sdajii if the eagleford was hit and mis, it would be difficult, but its proven to be a reliable hit. Its just the flows that vary. And those flows have proven to be reasonably predictable.
> 
> So estimating it is not too difficult. But hence why ive used conservative figures, as id rather be under then over.




I agree it's a pretty sure thing, it has been well proven, which is why I'm a very happy little holder.

What I meant was that predicting the share price of something like this 12 months down the track is difficult. More difficult than predicting how many wells we'll have, how much oil we'll be producing, etc (not that I think it's incredibly easy to pinpoint, but we have a fair idea of that ballpark now, and I agree with you, it's looking very rosey).

The market isn't always rational though. If it was we'd be closer to $4 right now. I suspect that the market might be taking future growth into account now rather than basing the current valuation on what we're currently producing, and I think in 12 months it will still be lagging in giving it a proper valuation, and seeing less development ahead (although there will still be heaps, naturally). I might be entirely wrong, and things like currency conversions and the price of oil will have a strong influence, which honestly I don't think anyone can be absolutely certain of, but I do think you're at the conservative end of the ball park at $80. Not everyone would agree, of course. Nothing between $3.50 and $7 would surprise me at the end of the year.

In terms of your predictions and calculations based on flow rates etc, I think you're right on the money and I am one of the many grateful members who reads every one of your posts with high interest. I've thanked you before, I thank you again now, and I'll probably thank you again!

Last year I hoped AUT might help me get a deposit together for a home loan. I'm now wondering if it might end up covering half the mortgage.


----------



## condog (11 January 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Last year I hoped AUT might help me get a deposit together for a home loan. I'm now wondering if it might end up covering half the mortgage.




And whilst anyone would be reckless, to get you to bet your house on any stock, one wonders whether it might end up buying you a house outright. Please do not act on that, but its the obvious question that springs to mind in response to your quote. 

Sadjii i enjoy your posts very much also, you seem to have a very wise head when it comes to investing.  Congrats on your gains so far.


----------



## AngusSmart (11 January 2011)

I'm Chasing  another 10k put in today.. just back above my original holding now..

wish i didnt get out before i'd be in a similar boat to sdajii, i think i recall him mentioning this a while back! congrats to everyone!


----------



## condog (11 January 2011)

Hi Angus welcome back. Yep have to say so far all ive seen of those who got out is regrets. And have to say in my opinion i think there will be many more who fall into that trap of selling out far too soon. It takes guts and risk to let your winners run and honestly many people just cannot stomach it. 

But when your on a winner like this that is adding value like they are, with good broker valuations well above sp, and about to accellerate thier value adding program, it seriously has to be worth riding much further in my opinion. 

Obviously we cant control the floods or the global issues, but the oil price will be an early indicator to any problems out thier and right now its comfortable with proceedings. So imo this is one winner its probably more risky to dump then keep riding. 

But hey im a mug punter just like the next guy so seek good advice and DYOR.


----------



## condog (12 January 2011)

2 new well apps by hilcorp
Buehring Unit and Salge Unit

Oils up strongly over $2 this morning letting us know the markets have considered all the PIGS issues and are happy they think its all under control. 

Its also on the back of the Alaskin pieline issues (leaks) which any disruption causes pretty much immediate supply problems for the west coast refineries. 

Elsewhere:
Talisman Energy expects to spend $4 billion this year in the Eagleford

Kinder Morgan/Copano Joint Venture To Provide Additional Gathering, Processing ...  
Oil and Gas Online - ‎10 hours ago‎
Eagle Ford Gathering will provide more than 200000 MMBtu per day of incremental gathering and processing capacity to producers in the Eagle Ford Shale ...


----------



## easylikesunday (12 January 2011)

Hit $2.66 early this morning, settled at $2.50 for now.. which is exactly $1.00 over my purchase price! 

That was less than 2 months ago! Wish I had the money back when I wanted to buy in at the .85c mark 

My *amateur* chart thinks we may be around $2.85 by 20th Jan if we can stay above $2.50


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (12 January 2011)

easylikesunday said:


> My *amateur* chart thinks we may be around $2.85 by 20th Jan if we can stay above $2.50



A little optimistic I think. Looking at the peaks since Nov could return a figure of around $2.68 by the 20th Jan. $2.85 might be closer to the end of the month...


----------



## Magic Man (12 January 2011)

Loving the ideas.. is anyone topping up at these levels??


----------



## easylikesunday (12 January 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> A little optimistic I think. Looking at the peaks since Nov could return a figure of around $2.68 by the 20th Jan. $2.85 might be closer to the end of the month...




Opimistic, yes. Thats why I highlighted the amateur bit  Im still a learner.

IMO, I think a new trend line has formed and if we can stay above $2.50 as support then I dont think $2.85 is out of the question by the 20th.


----------



## condog (12 January 2011)

AUT has a present valuation by euroz of $3.60.

There have been many who have made predictions about what AUT can and cant do , and basically AUT has proved most very wrong indeed, to the upside. 

The two very very significant price catalysts approaching are the arrival of 2 new drilling rigs and the NSAI reserves upgrade. Both these have the potential to see Euroz upgrade that $3.60 target.

Im personally using my own amatuer target of $5.50 to $6.39 for Dec 31st 2011.  I could be wrong and im unqualified , so seek good advice, do your own research and do not make decisions based on these numbers.


----------



## condog (13 January 2011)

ITs got a pretty predictable and reliable growth channell. Every now and then a CR or something holds us back for a bit, but we innevitably regain and reenter the predictable channell imo. 




$2.50 and $3.00 support look pretty close in Feb and Mar. Im pretty confident Mar may see a rerating with the 4th rig arrival and the reserves report. I"d say Euroz will issue a re-rating.

25th Jan Tranch 2 will be issued at $1.60 so some increased selling may arise int he short term and slightly delay this scenario.

All opinioon so DYOR and seek good advice.


----------



## condog (13 January 2011)

Dont forget that graph above also includes a 50% increase in reserves, which imo increased most valuations by approx 50%. That clearly imo wasnt and hasnt been factored in to the sharte price even yet.

Also rememebr the Euroz valuation is still a whole $1 above current sp. Theres a lot of impending rises it would appear. 

And oil up near $92 wont hurt things either.

Theres a lot of things putting pressure on an sp increase right now imo.


----------



## easylikesunday (13 January 2011)

While the above chart looks the goods, I dont think I agree with the 6 - 12 month targets or the supports. I think the 6 month target would be around the Euroz valuation ($3.60) and support at $2.35 and $2.00


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (13 January 2011)

Easylikesunday, if I'm not mistaken that's just taken from the Stoxline Australia site, and it's completely computer generated so obviously there will be mistakes in some of the indicators etc.


----------



## easylikesunday (13 January 2011)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Easylikesunday, if I'm not mistaken that's just taken from the Stoxline Australia site, and it's completely computer generated so obviously there will be mistakes in some of the indicators etc.




Yeah the site is http://au.stoxline.com/ for anyone interested.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (13 January 2011)

I can't believe this run. Last 3 days AUT had a big run then came back at the end.... this time it just kept going! I agree strong oil prices and that oil pipe problem is helping and also the fundamentals are great with the wells and rigs but this bad boy just keeps gaining and with from buyers, people are holding on well. Hopefully we won't see a big pull back once the cap raising is done.

I would say the market would know about the $1.60 cap and the fact that the SP keeps going up may mean we may not see it drop much on it's run towards the high $2 and into the $3c. Would you guys agree?


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (13 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hopefully we won't see a big pull back once the cap raising is done.



If it does, then I'll be topping up. I'll just have to sell the wife and kids first.


----------



## condog (13 January 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> If it does, then I'll be topping up. I'll just have to sell the wife and kids first.




I think there may be a small army of buyers if it does pull back that will join you, hopefully making any pullback brief and meaningless.


----------



## condog (13 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I can't believe this run. Last 3 days AUT had a big run then came back at the end.... this time it just kept going! I agree strong oil prices and that oil pipe problem is helping and also the fundamentals are great with the wells and rigs but this bad boy just keeps gaining and with from buyers, people are holding on well. Hopefully we won't see a big pull back once the cap raising is done.
> 
> I would say the market would know about the $1.60 cap and the fact that the SP keeps going up may mean we may not see it drop much on it's run towards the high $2 and into the $3c. Would you guys agree?




Theres too many strong reasons for the gains right now. The bulls are running, oils strong, the PIGS debts got auctioned off easily. Bernanke and the beige book are saying the US will swing into proper recovery in Q2. Our flows are great, our valuation is $1 above current sp, we have a reserve report soon, and we have 2 extra rigs arriving in the next 5 weeks.


----------



## MACCA350 (13 January 2011)

I've been waiting for a pull back since Dec 9, sold a bunch of other stock and waited for the SP to continue pulling back from that $1.89 high. I missed it as it only dropped to $1.79 before skyrocketing to $2.09 on the 15th. 
Finally decided to get rid of another poor performer and dump a bunch in to AUT at $2.51 yesterday to increase my holding.

Now to sit back and watch. If there is a pull back on cap I'll pick up some more. I agree with Condog though, AUT is in a bull run, and with good reason given the strong fundamentals and recent inclusion to the top 200 etc, waiting for a pull back on this will likely loose you possible gains.

Happy camping
cheers


----------



## condog (13 January 2011)

MACCA350 said:


> 've been waiting for a pull back since Dec 9, sold a bunch of other stock and waited for the SP to continue pulling back from that $1.89 high. I missed it as it only dropped to $1.79 before skyrocketing to $2.09 on the 15th.
> Finally decided to get rid of another poor performer and dump a bunch in to AUT at $2.51 yesterday to increase my holding.




I been saying it all along like a broken record its a buy and hold , its growth is tooo strong to get out, as its growth made exiting higher risk then staying in.


----------



## MACCA350 (13 January 2011)

condog said:


> I been saying it all along like a broken record its a buy and hold , its growth is tooo strong to get out, as its growth made exiting higher risk then staying in.



Yep, been in and accumulation since 49.5c...............give me a time machine and I'd dump the lot in back at 35c when I stuck AUT on my watch list
I tried trading a pullback with a parcel of my shares around one of the previous cap raisings......didn't go all too well, so I went back to my buy and hold strategy, for now at least 

cheers


----------



## condog (13 January 2011)

MIR and i put this together a few minutes ago elsewhere and i thought worth while to chuck in here for anyone new to aut

1. Jon & management know what they are doing & Jon holds about 17m shares.
2. hilcorp know what they are doing , more than us.
3.they have the support of major institutions all over the world that love the story.
4. they are in the best part of the best shale plays in the US.
5.some analysts have said it's got $4 to $5 written all over it.
6. reserves report to come & well spacings to be reduced.
I'm sure I've forgotten a few things but OGG will help out. 

7. Its a whole dollar under Euroz valuation price
8. ITs got an NSAI reserves report in the next 6 weeks
9. ITs got its 3rd and 4th rig turning up in the next 5 weeks and we have all seen what drilling results do to the sp
10. We have oil at incredibly profitable prices
11. We have a 60 day flow average of over 650 boepd and that includes the early wells that had much bigger declines then the restricted chokes

and there just the points that roll off the tongue...


----------



## Magic Man (14 January 2011)

Condog.. Where do you recieve your Euroz valautions from?


----------



## condog (14 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Condog.. Where do you recieve your Euroz valautions from?





I recieve mine of a few nice fellow posters on this forum and hc. if you drop your email in text form eg blah at bla dot com    to avoid bots finding your email im sure someone will oblige. do it when they or we start talking about the next one.


----------



## donteatme (15 January 2011)

When is the cap raising supposed to happen?


----------



## condog (15 January 2011)

donteatme said:


> When is the cap raising supposed to happen?




Tranch 1 has been and gone.

Theres a general meeting soon for Tranch 2 and they get released 25th Jan if approved (which they will be)


----------



## Magic Man (15 January 2011)

What can we see from the share price come January 25th and the near term afterwards?


----------



## condog (16 January 2011)

BEIJING ”” Chen Weidong, an influential policy guru at government-controlled China National Offshore Oil Corp., has a blunt message for oil sands companies and investors: get out. 

The future, he says, is natural gas trapped in shale rocks.

From http://www.financialpost.com/news/e...icture+sands/4111522/story.html#ixzz1B8gUgUal


----------



## AngusSmart (16 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> What can we see from the share price come January 25th and the near term afterwards?




Yeah wouldnt mind a chartists view on what they think may happen around the time the next lot of shares come out to them investors.. and or other views?

23,311,080 shares and 2,848,920 Special Warrants.. for the tranche 2 to come out on the 24th

On the 15th (when the announcement was made) open was 1.85 close was 2.04 just below the days high.. and since then there hasnt really been a retrace to reflect.. since then theres been lower lows and higher highs..


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 January 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Yeah wouldnt mind a chartists view on what they think may happen around the time the next lot of shares come out to them investors.. and or other views?
> 
> 23,311,080 shares and 2,848,920 Special Warrants.. for the tranche 2 to come out on the 24th
> 
> On the 15th (when the announcement was made) open was 1.85 close was 2.04 just below the days high.. and since then there hasnt really been a retrace to reflect.. since then theres been lower lows and higher highs..




With the volume that has come through  at $2.10+ since the first tranche and the announcement I doubt there will be much of a pullback really.. Condog.. would you agree? I doubt people will be willing to sell at this point even for a quick profit and thats funds aswell. They know what we know.


----------



## condog (16 January 2011)

imo wit out a doubt its going to either hold us flat for a bit or pull back a little bit for a while once the get released. After all its supply and demand in its most raw form. 

But seeing whats just happened, it wont imo be pulling back far or for long. 

Obviously everyones tax situations are different, but for most longer to medium term holders i doubt it will pull back far or long enough to warrant paying CGT. I really doubt their will be profitable trading for those whove owned them a while,


What i would say is i think it will provide a nice entry / top up point for those looking to get in or get more. 


As youve seen with Tranch 1, it did hold the sp back slightly but it wasnt long. Each level cleared the sellers out progressively. Once those excess sellers are cleared, it rises rapidly and there appears imo to be no going back.

I honestly believe right now a chartists point of view is not going to be anything remotely close. ITs previous histrory of this stock and experience with it that continually prove to be more accurate. Weve had chartists in here before and theyve basically cost people money, because theyve been wrong.


----------



## AngusSmart (16 January 2011)

Yeah no sweat, i been topping up alot lately just thru Ig markets. i put in a few stops that i doubt will get hit but just needed to be sure.

i do agree however, with such a slight pullback after tranche 1, tranche 2 (which is fewer shares) hardly see much at all..

when do we go live on the Tsx?? i expect to pick up another 10,000-20,000 by months end.. my other long positions are allowing me to top up alot on Aut..


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 January 2011)

condog said:


> imo wit out a doubt its going to either hold us flat for a bit or pull back a little bit for a while once the get released. After all its supply and demand in its most raw form.
> 
> But seeing whats just happened, it wont imo be pulling back far or for long.
> 
> ...




This is true, the fundamentals are far to strong for any kind of reasonable chart to predict a pullback. Not are the fundamentals very easy to read (due to condogs insight and research providing) they are very strong.


----------



## donteatme (16 January 2011)

Do you guys recommend waiting till after Tranch 2 to buy in? Or just go in now?


----------



## Sdajii (16 January 2011)

donteatme said:


> Do you guys recommend waiting till after Tranch 2 to buy in? Or just go in now?




Generally I'd be waiting, but in this case it's difficult to say. The share price just tends to go up lately. I was expecting a nice top up point when the last tranche went through, and all that happened was a massive jump up! This one will probably either hold us flat or pull as back a little, but it might only slow down the increase. Between tomorrow and the 25th there might be enough of an increase that any decrease (and there might not even be one) doesn't drop the share price down to where we are tomorrow anyway. Anyone who claims to know for sure is deluded or lying. One thing I'd be fairly confident about is that if you bought tomorrow you'd be paying less than if you could sell for within 2-4 months, and probably a lot less. Then again, I'd probably repeat the exact same sentence on the 25th or any day between.

*disclaimer - I'm an essentially anonymous person on the internet who for all you know has no clue what he is doing or is biased or generally up to no good and you shouldn't rely on anything I say, don't take my words as advice, don't cry to me if I'm wrong, etc etc etc.


----------



## shanti (16 January 2011)

Nothing new but I enjoyed reading this extract (borrowed from another forum thread):
"" Peak Oil
Peak oil is the point at which the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This has already happened in the US, Alaska and the North Sea. In the next few years Mexico will become an importer of oil and the US will lose its third largest supplier. Our fragile, highly indebted economy relies on this land based cheap oil to continue and it cannot withstand the shock of transitioning to more expensive alternatives. In September of 2010 a

German military think tank reported that the German government is taking the threat of peak oil seriously and preparing accordingly. Numerous studies around the world have concluded that we are very close to peak oil production, which will be accelerated due to gulf drilling bans.

This will lead to higher price inflation for most goods. This will be another blow to the fragile US economy, which currently pays less for oil and gas than any of the first world countries. When added to the effects of the waning strength of the petrodollar the results will be devastating. 

May I remind you that if China, which currently has one tenth the number of cars per capita as Americans, was to reach par with the US, we would need, by one estimate, seven more Saudi Arabias to meet their needs.
These three mega trends will continue to lower the GDP, lower the tax revenue, create higher trade deficits, create higher unemployment, resulting in the need for further currency creation. This will cause inflation to rise as currencies depreciate in value and create higher universal debt. All of this means the gold price will continue to rise. ""

as quoted from:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25507.html


----------



## condog (17 January 2011)

donteatme - we cant make a reccomendation we are not qualified (hahhahhahah what a joke) and its against asx and asf rules.

As Sadjii says its so hard to tell. Normally in any other stock for sure it would be cheaper after issue of tranch 2. And ive no doubt some sort of slow down or minor pullback will occur post tranch 2 issue. But as for whether that will be cheaper then today, your guess is as good as anyones.

What i do expect though is that in 6 to 12 months you wont really care whether you wnet in today or in 2 weeks time. Thats just an opinion. 


you got to remmebr right now we are approximately a whole $1 below its valuation, there arent too many stocks with a growth track record and projected growth like AUt hta you can buy $1 below its valuation.


----------



## condog (17 January 2011)

Shanti - yeh i posted that in here a month or two ago when it came out, but it doesnt hurt to remind people, as it unfolds it will be initially very good for EFS stocks.

Right now theres a plan emerging in the US to develop shale oil and gas with the help of govt somehow, either through subsidies, tax help or other. ITs apparently so the US can become unrelient on crazy countries dfor its energy needs and slash its defence budgets.

Its being pushed by Pickens the oil guru. apparently when he talks oil, congress usually acts. And right now hes singing from the roof tops about how the EFS and other shales can unlock US energy future.


----------



## condog (17 January 2011)

Shanti
Pretty easy to see the repetative post CR levels when you look at last weeks graph.

As each level of price the sellers dry up a new level is revealed , until eventually the bungy chord holding the stock back breaks. 

The sellers dry up at a price, then the price increases, the sellers dry up at the new level and again up we go.


----------



## condog (18 January 2011)

AUT belts out another new high 3 days in a row. $3 is looking closer and with a min bull run again just prior to Tranch 2 release we may see $3 if theres similar buying all week??


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (18 January 2011)

Great result todya so far given that there was no US lead and crude fell half a cent. I'll be very happy with any gain today. So 3c + so far is great. Constant SP moving upwards is a message in itself that people aren't gonna wait for the 2nd offering to the funds. They see better value getting in now which I feel will constitute very minimal falls in SP next week.


----------



## condog (18 January 2011)

Big vote of confidence by JP Morgtan upping thier holding significantly from 8.5% to almost 10%

I guess they see the same growth and value that im looking for.


----------



## Kremmen (18 January 2011)

condog said:


> Big vote of confidence by JP Morgtan upping thier holding significantly from 8.5% to almost 10%




I wonder where they're going with that? They're not necessarily the most benevolent group to have owning a large proportion of the company.


----------



## Mister Mark (18 January 2011)

Kremmen said:


> I wonder where they're going with that? They're not necessarily the most benevolent group to have owning a large proportion of the company.




SP has been going forward i think at a faster rate than announcements, which is great, Morgans increasing their holding i just hope a TO is not in the wings, to much future i believe.


----------



## philly (18 January 2011)

condog said:


> Big vote of confidence by JP Morgtan upping thier holding significantly from 8.5% to almost 10%
> 
> I guess they see the same growth and value that im looking for.






Kremmen said:


> I wonder where they're going with that? They're not necessarily the most benevolent group to have owning a large proportion of the company.




I have had a closer look at the notice and make the following observations - JP Morgan purchased 8.22m additional shares in the period 20 December 2010 - 14 January 2011. Almost half of these, 3.8m,  were acquired for $1.60 via a placement the remaining shares were acquired on market for prices between $2.03 and $2.61.

On todays close  JPM is sitting on a substantial profit achieved in less than one month. 
Whilst I agree with Condog that JPM,  like all holders, can see growth and value in AUT I also share Kremmen's concern that JPM is not necessarily a holder that I want on the AUT books.

With nearly 10% of the shares in AUT one can only guess whether JPM is likely to be a holder or a trader. Which ever way it chooses to go will have an impact on the SP. If it is a holder then there will be 10% less shares on the market and if demand remains the SP goes up. If it is a trader then it can through its volume put downward pressure on the SP. Either way we need to be alert. All IMHO and DYOR


----------



## philly (19 January 2011)

Mister Mark said:


> SP has been going forward i think at a faster rate than announcements, which is great, Morgans increasing their holding i just hope a TO is not in the wings, to much future i believe.




Published on www.upstreamonline.com on 18 January 2011 06:37 GMT

*Gail on the hunt for US shale*
State-run Gail India is scouting for shale gas assets in the US and is willing to invest up to $500 million. 
*Gail is likely to look at an asset that was already in production and would be open to either investing in an asset or picking up equity in specific companies*, the Mint newspaper reported, citing two unnamed people familiar with the development. 

The report added that the company was open to partner another state-run oil and gas company for the planned venture. 

*The paper said Gail had issued a request for proposals last month from merchant bankers who can help it identify potential targets and eventually close a deal. *

Gail officials could not be immediately reached for a comment. 

I guess that any time that "US SHALE" is mentioned then EFS must come into the discussion and by implication ALL the companies that have acreage there.
I also guess that any time "merchant bankers" is mentioned then maybe JP MORGAN comes into the discussion. Or maybe if not JP MORGAN bankers like to gossip.

I don't know anything but IMO the timing is very interesting .

Personally, I don't want a TO in the short term as IMHO I don't believe holders would get fair compensation given the increased activity that AUT has  planned for the next 12 months.


----------



## condog (19 January 2011)

Gail must be a bunch of suckers, there gunna pay a merchant banker probably $100M to close the deal for them . When if they just popped in here theyd quickly know that EKA would be a fantastic target.


----------



## donteatme (19 January 2011)

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Strong sell recommended by Stoxline.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (19 January 2011)

donteatme said:


> http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis
> 
> Strong sell recommended by Stoxline.



Good - time to buy a few more shares after it drops.


----------



## donteatme (19 January 2011)

Exactly what I was thinking. I've got the money ready to go, just waiting for the right time to enter


----------



## donteatme (19 January 2011)

Who is the Tranch 2 getting sold to? Is it to existing shareholders?

Sorry about the noob question. Bit new to all this and I can't find any info on it.


----------



## condog (20 January 2011)

donteatme said:


> Who is the Tranch 2 getting sold to? Is it to existing shareholders?
> 
> Sorry about the noob question. Bit new to all this and I can't find any info on it.




ITs already allocated to institutional investors through the $120M CR done recently. The shares if approved (which they will be) get issued around the 25th Jan.


----------



## condog (20 January 2011)

donteatme said:


> http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis
> 
> Strong sell recommended by Stoxline.





> Price and moving averages
> 
> Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.
> 
> ...





Still got bullish indicators and fantastic fundamentals. Clearly the expectations about a post Tranch2 issue are weighing things down a little. Time will tell though as most long term holders are locked in from CGT. So the sell off may be lighter and faster then expected.


----------



## condog (20 January 2011)

Those update flows this morning are excellent with very very small declines. Good news for all.

May #1H     745
Luna #1H     866


----------



## donteatme (20 January 2011)

Increase today. I've come this far, and will hold out buying until next week.


----------



## fflintoff (20 January 2011)

”ž..a real good friend of mine is about to get a well on his ranch, its very close to the kowalik wells and turnbulls, which are in karnes county.. but the type of well he will get will be totally revolutionary, the operator (a different one to the kowalik operator) is looking at a totally new well design to anything i have seen and heard anywhere in the efs. i am really curious myself how his well will go, he also tells me as landowner, that he has no choice on what type of well they put in, but as its experimental, like most of the wells the operator has in place, he feels apprehensive in case it turns out a complete disaster like kowalik 1 and 2. his neighbours are obviously bitterly disappointed with K1 and K2.. but looking at it from the operators side, they foot the bill for disasters, and he doesnt.. its just he cant buy the same luxury car as some others can in the county.”

Very strange statement from agentm on the TXN thread on HC that Kowalik 2 is regarded as a complete disaster. I doubt if Hilcorp & AUT share that sentment in the slightest.
:


----------



## condog (20 January 2011)

fflintoff said:


> „..
> Very strange statement from agentm on the TXN thread on HC that Kowalik 2 is regarded as a complete disaster. I doubt if Hilcorp & AUT share that sentment in the slightest.
> :






yes very very strange given when one looks at in in context Kowalick wasnt able to be fully fracced, yet it's 30 day production from half a well is 710 boe/d (with lower decline also) more than txn total well of 655 boe/d  which he is promoting a lot, I dont understand how that can possibly be regarded as a complete disaster?


----------



## bennywizard (21 January 2011)

Its days like this when I see so much red in my watchlist but green with AUT that I remind myself why I don't trade this stock! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 January 2011)

There is some heavy numbers selling at the $2.75 level so hopefully we can eat into these guys before the 25th comes around.... not long to go now.. who has some cash ready for the top up?


----------



## easylikesunday (21 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> There is some heavy numbers selling at the $2.75 level so hopefully we can eat into these guys before the 25th comes around.... not long to go now.. who has some cash ready for the top up?




John if you dont mind me asking, where do you get the BUY/SELL info during the day?

Im with eTrade, is it feature the broker has, or a different program all together?

Thanks.
Matt


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (21 January 2011)

easylikesunday said:


> John if you dont mind me asking, where do you get the BUY/SELL info during the day?
> 
> Im with eTrade, is it feature the broker has, or a different program all together?
> 
> ...




This is a broker feature. ETrade lets you do this too ->after selecting a stock click on 'market depth' and that will show you the top ten bids and offers together with corresponding volume.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 January 2011)

That's right. AUT was once again #1 performer in the ASX200 and hit another 52week high. On the back of no news and a down oil price. Good news coming into Monday's meeting.


----------



## Assasin (21 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> That's right. AUT was once again #1 performer in the ASX200 and hit another 52week high. On the back of no news and a down oil price. Good news coming into Monday's meeting.




Sorry to correct you John but I think yesterdays announcements was hardly rated as no news.
Fantastic oil flow updates.
Enjoy your posts.
Cheers.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 January 2011)

Assasin said:


> Sorry to correct you John but I think yesterdays announcements was hardly rated as no news.
> Fantastic oil flow updates.
> Enjoy your posts.
> Cheers.




That was yesterday's news and it showed continued flows but I meant today, not normally do you see AUT fly high on no announcements today and oil looking down.


----------



## condog (21 January 2011)

yes some nice action today. Huge volume and basically huge acqusition most the day. 

Very good leading into Tranche 2 release and nice to see given the relative weakness at other times during the week.

Im sure we will see some extra selling late next week, but if they are smart enough to be classified as intsitutional investors, then im sure they wont be throwing these highly saught after shares away lightly. They must by now know the pattern of tightening supply following CR's on this stock and with no MFund reporting dates around their necks they can afford to hold for a bit before they begin selling.

Interseting 3 weeks ahead. 

My bet is by end of Feb we will be $3+, dont make decisions on it, but feel free to call me a fool if we arent.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (24 January 2011)

What's with the "Pre-Open" at 10:46? Is there an announcement pending? I guess I'll have to wait to find out.


----------



## prgudula (24 January 2011)

24th January 2011
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Securities Exchange
Level 4
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
By e-Lodgement
AURORA FILES PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS IN CANADA
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (ASX: AUT) (the “Company” or “Aurora”) is pleased to announce that a
preliminary long-form prospectus to qualify the distribution of up to 6,178,000 ordinary shares
issuable for no additional consideration upon the automatic conversion of 6,178,000 special
warrants (the “Special Warrants”) pursuant to the underwritten private placement (the “Offering”)
announced on 15 December 2010 has been filed in certain provinces of Canada. The preliminary
prospectus is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
As previously announced 3,417,480 Special Warrants were issued on 21 December 2010
(Canadian EST) at an issue price of C$1.60 per warrant to raise gross proceeds of C$5,467,968. It
is anticipated that up to a further 2,760,520 Special Warrants will be issued at C$1.60 on 24
January 2011 (Canadian EST), subject to the approval of Shareholders at a General Meeting, to
raise additional gross proceeds of C$4,416,832.
The Offering was led by TD Securities Inc. and GMP Securities L.P (as Co-Lead Underwriters)
together with FirstEnergy Capital Corp.
The preliminary long-form prospectus relating to the Offering has been filed with securities
commissions or similar authorities in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. The
preliminary prospectus is subject to completion or amendment. There will not be any qualification of
the underlying shares of the Special Warrants until a receipt for the final prospectus has been
issued.
This news release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the
United States nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation
or sale would be unlawful. The securities offered have not been, and will not be, registered under the United
States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Securities Act), or any state securities laws and may not be
offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S under The Securities Act
except in compliance with the registration requirements or an applicable exemption from the registration
requirements of The Securities Act and applicable state securities laws.
Yours faithfully
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman


----------



## condog (24 January 2011)

I personlly hate dual listings, but i will concede in this case it should add impetous to the current sp.

Cant wait to see what the post Tranche 2 brings, its looking good and im expecting a shirter and shallower sell off then in days gone by.


----------



## rcm617 (24 January 2011)

Cant really see the point of this one, the shareprice is going along pretty well, if they wanted more money, I'm sure they'd have plenty of takers in Oz for $1.60. 
It's only going to increase admin costs for the listing and in subsequent years.


----------



## condog (25 January 2011)

In a previous email from John replying to some of my questions he replied


The TSX does not allow candidates for listing to promote their intentions. 


Then in reference to a similar question

You may have noticed however, that three leading Canadian brokerage firms were named in our latest release.


Clear as mud it seems, but yes id put money on a TSX listing in coming months, not that i have any clue how long these things take to transpire.


----------



## philly (25 January 2011)

condog said:


> In a previous email from John replying to some of my questions he replied
> 
> 
> The TSX does not allow candidates for listing to promote their intentions.
> ...




Hey Condog, 
its a slow day at work lol
FYI there are 4 steps involved in getting an international public company dually listed on the TMX
Step 1 - Set-up Advisory Meeting
Step 2 - Submit TSX or TSXV Listing Documents
Step 3 - Receive Conditional Approval
Step 4 - Listing and Trading Commences

No mention of how long the process takes. It is mainly filing forms but could probably take several months.
Source: www.tmx.com


----------



## condog (25 January 2011)

Cheers phily

Ive since found out they expect it to be operating by end of feb. 

Im guessing we will get more detail in the 31st jan quarterly update. 

Ive certainly emailed John saying i think its all about as clear as mud and needs explaining. 

So lets wait for quarterly and see what it says.


----------



## condog (25 January 2011)

I contacted Jon several times this afternoon re this ambiguity and a few other issues. 

LEts say we dont see eye to eye on a few issues.

But credit where credits due. The legalities of the canadian listing dictate what can and cant be said and in what words it has to be said. 

Yes the prospectus is a lawyers dream and everyone elses nightmare. But apparently thats the way it is and live with it. 

I stressed the ambiguity and confusion that exists and Jon casted an eye over HC to see what i was referrring to , so hes well aware of your concerns.

Theres an announcement due out as a quarterly or some other form on 31st jan which is only a few days away, so id suggest we all cool down and wait, see whats in that, and then if we are still in the dark or confused then we make contact asking for clarity.

Lets just wait see what comes out.

In reference to the tsx lisitng i posted earlier everything ive ben able to extract from everyone im in contact with, so go up the page and read. It appears end of feb is the target date, but its largely out of AUT control from what i can gather. 

I expressed the concern that a lot of the info in relation to the Canadian listing is burried in copious detail and v ery inclear and i suggested STRONGLY the need for a specific release clarrifying the issue to share holders. 

Jon whilst bristeling and giving me a rather short answer was as always proffessional in his responses and careful not to breach asx rules of disclosure.

He expressed a desire that sometimes holders just need to trust managment and allow them to go about thier job, which is a fair enough request, but i guess it works both ways , as a holder i also expect to be kept fully informed, and i personally think it takes jack shiv effort to put out an update. 

I also expressed my concern about the issue price for the CR which lets say we 100% disagree on. 

Looking forward to jan 31st announcment.


----------



## condog (26 January 2011)

For instance, one customer plans to increase the length of its laterals in the south Texas Eagle Ford play to 10,000 ft compared with 6,000-ft laterals that it is currently drilling, Lesar said. 
From http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet...companies/20100/01/halliburton_s-profits.html

About Haliburton


Interesting wonderwho?
Nothing implied, but it will be interesting to see who and how thier flows and declines go. 

In some areas its warranted in others its uneconomic.


----------



## Magic Man (27 January 2011)

This thing is a beast.. up 13 cents.. Shoudnt it be going downnnnnnnn??


----------



## condog (27 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> This thing is a beast.. up 13 cents.. Shoudnt it be going downnnnnnnn??




Perhaps Jon was right on friday when he tried to convince me the quality of holders hed sold to would be interested in holding ( not i those words) but i think thats what he meant. I didnt agree, but i guess if this keeps happening , i will be happy to have egg all over my face.


----------



## condog (27 January 2011)

Absolutely huge volumesw going through this morning. 203,000 oredr just got placed at 2.83.  Nice to see

Buy Sell at 900,000 v 300,000 which also looks good .


----------



## easylikesunday (27 January 2011)

I was close to my _guess_ with AUT sitting on $2.85 on the 25th which gives me confidence in my very amateur charting abilities. 

Good work too Condog on the updates!


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (27 January 2011)

We were all wrong, but in a good way though! Unbelievable, I would imagine a pull back now will be very very minimal and with price targets so high I may flood more money in asap.


----------



## Assasin (27 January 2011)

What a great day for AUT.
Just keeps rewarding holders.
Stand-by for bananas.


----------



## easylikesunday (27 January 2011)

AUT has finally broken through the upper trend channel its been stuck inside for about 3 months. My chart says it has hit it and retraced 5 times and today it broke through it quite strongly.

Hard to know whats going to happen with this stock! But it sure is exciting to have in the portfolio!!

95% return in 3 months isnt a bad result.


----------



## Magic Man (27 January 2011)

what an awesome day for AUT, something none of us really expected. The question is where to now for this stock. The Euroz valuation is getting ever so closer and with no retracement looking likely now what is everyone predicting? is there a chance the Euroz valuation may spike and when is the next piece of information comming forward from the company that will inflate the share price even more?


----------



## AngusSmart (27 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> what an awesome day for AUT, something none of us really expected. The question is where to now for this stock. The Euroz valuation is getting ever so closer and with no retracement looking likely now what is everyone predicting? is there a chance the Euroz valuation may spike and when is the next piece of information comming forward from the company that will inflate the share price even more?





The arrival of new rigs might be the next bit of news, otherwise Canadian listing, and drilling/flow results.. am sure euroz will be putting out a new report in the coming weeks.


----------



## trader8888 (27 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> what an awesome day for AUT, something none of us really expected. The question is where to now for this stock. The Euroz valuation is getting ever so closer and with no retracement looking likely now what is everyone predicting? is there a chance the Euroz valuation may spike and when is the next piece of information comming forward from the company that will inflate the share price even more?




Im predicting reserves upgrade to be the next big re-rate. Those declines are much better than they predicted in the last report and also a possibilty of reducing well spacings which will be massive. Im thinking reserves could go up %40-50 just on the better than expected declines alone, if you ad in the reduced well spacing, you just do the math!! As someone else mentioned the ramp up in drill and fraccing crews is a massive bonus as well.


----------



## condog (27 January 2011)

Lots of surprises.

This thing shocked everyone, especially those who had held off expecting a sell of this week, or worse still those who sold out hoping to rebuy. I think they added to the huge buying around today. When the sell off failed to eventuate, those who where cashed up went scrambling trying not to miss the boat.

Ive always said and i still think it, trading this thing is a dangerous game, its beeen a far better buy and hold.

My prediction going forward is , theres a lot of positive news, i see a new valuation after the reserves upgrade from Euroz to around the $4 - $4.50 mark.  

I reckon we will be $3.60 in 1-3 months. Good luck to all

DYOR and seek good advice, which is hard to get. Find new advice if its crap like most.


----------



## condog (27 January 2011)

trader8888 said:


> possibilty of reducing well spacings which will be massive.




Thats possibly the most overlooked item in the future growth oF AUT. ITs basically a 50-100% increase in reserves, sitting there for the taking, and when you look at the numbers in that recent Canadian prospectus we are talking numbers between 4 and 6 Billion. 

Mental note: dont forget the possibility to double reserves and EUR.


----------



## trader8888 (27 January 2011)

condog said:


> Thats possibly the most overlooked item in the future growth oF AUT. ITs basically a 50-100% increase in reserves, sitting there for the taking, and when you look at the numbers in that recent Canadian prospectus we are talking numbers between 4 and 6 Billion.
> 
> Mental note: dont forget the possibility to double reserves and EUR.




Thats it condog. The canadian prospectes states on a reserves basis, a NPV of $3Billion with 0 risk. Reduce those wells spaces to 40acres NPV goes to $6Billion, combined with the better than expected declines and we could be up to a NPV of $9Billion on 0 risk. Factor in NPV with %50 risk gives you $4.5 Billion. 

AUT currently at $2.95 = MC of $1.045Billion - Bassically $4.5Billion is 4 times the price now, giving you $2.95x4 = $11.80 a share on a conservative %50 risk.


----------



## trader8888 (27 January 2011)

Condog can i ask - what are your thoughts on BCC's EFS potential? they have some pretty decent IP's to date


----------



## Miner (28 January 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Condog can i ask - what are your thoughts on BCC's EFS potential? they have some pretty decent IP's to date




Trader 8888

Sorry to gate crash but why not visit BCC threadt and put the question there ? I am sure Condog will appreciate your question there too..

Cheers


----------



## bennywizard (28 January 2011)

I might be crazy for thinking this but in addition to the other things people have mentioned about re rating reserves and the possibility of reducing well spacings....plus the paying off off the original wells which I don't think has been noted by the company yet I feel another capital raising might come sooner than expected. Why? because management have stated that they intend to peruse an aggressive approach to further land acquisitions in 2011. This last one has been exceptional and I for one would welcome more at the right price of course.  If they wait this time until we reach say $3.50 that would be awesome, interested to hear others thoughts on this.


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

bennywizard said:


> I might be crazy for thinking this but in addition to the other things people have mentioned about re rating reserves and the possibility of reducing well spacings....plus the paying off off the original wells which I don't think has been noted by the company yet I feel another capital raising might come sooner than expected. Why? because management have stated that they intend to peruse an aggressive approach to further land acquisitions in 2011. This last one has been exceptional and I for one would welcome more at the right price of course.  If they wait this time until we reach say $3.50 that would be awesome, interested to hear others thoughts on this.




Hia benny
Yes the last acqusition proved very fruitful, and i too believe new acqusitions will also prove very fruitful "at the right price" and "with a more realistic issue price for the Cr". 

With an acqusition thats going to increase reserves by 50%, theyd have to be hopeless not to be able to issue 10-20% abive vWAP


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

When you go back to page 17 and 18 of this thread and look at my spread sheet estimates we have well and truly exceeded all and at the time they looked incredibly optimistic to most. Plenty of tongue in cheek comments and a few attacks over the times over these numbers.

But the bit i want to draw your attention to is we have already surpassed my end of 2011 figures for most those projections. LArgely due to increased oil prices, acquisitions and accellerated drilling programs.
Based on the same numbers i had end of 2012 targets ranging from around $5 - $7.79. 

Right now the updated model im using which if anything is more conservative, but also more accurate, as its costings and flow data is a lot more accurate, i have projections of $5.42 to $6.69 for end of 2011.

End of 2012 i currently have $7.29 - $8.74

If managment make acqusitions or again increase dilling pace that number should increase. Likewise if hilcorp reduce well spacing that number could increase significantly.

There are also downside risks involving flow data, declines, accidents and oil price.

These figures are for discussion purposes only, DO NOT base decisions on them or rely on them for any purpose other then discussion.


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

IPANEMA AND LONGHORN AMI PRODUCTION & OPERATIONS UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations and production at the Ipanema and Longhorn Areas of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the Eagle Ford Shale Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Longhorn AMI (AUT 31.9% Working Interest)
Turnbull #4H (25% WI+)
The Turnbull #4H well has now been producing for 30 days and the following production rates have been achieved.
Total Gas Production (mmscf)
Total Condensate Production (bbls)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate (mmscfe/d)*
Average Daily Equivalent Oil Rate (boe/d)*
Turnbull #4H
69
30,168
14.93
1,244
*The equivalent rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.
This well continues to be produced with a limited choke setting. Aurora will provide the market with a further update once data from the first 60 days of production is available.
Sienkiewicz #1H (25% WI+)
The fracture stimulation of the Sienkiewicz #1H is complete with 19 stages having been pumped and this well is presently cleaning up to sales.
Yosko #1H (31.9% WI)
The Yosko #1H well drilled and cased with a total depth of 17,366 ft. This well will be fracture stimulated in due course.
Barboza #1H (32.9% WI)
The Barboza #1H well has spudded and this well is presently at a depth of 4,057ft having run and cemented surface casing. This well straddles the Longhorn and Ipanema AMIs and as a result Aurora holds a blended working interest of 32.9%, this figure is subject to final confirmation by the Operator.
Ipanema AMI (AUT 36.4% Working Interest)
Franke #1H (30% WI+)
The Franke #1H well has now been on production for 30 days and the following production rates have been achieved in that time. This well has a relatively short horizontal section with a total depth of only 15,184ft. The well is being produced with a minimal choke setting and the data below is the average production over the first 30 days.
Total Gas Production (mmscf)
Total Condensate Production (bbls)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate (mmscfe/d)*
Average Daily Equivalent Oil Rate (boe/d)*
Franke #1H
54
14,879
8.20
683
*The equivalent rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.
Aurora will provide the market with a further update once data from the first 60 days of production is available.
Foster Unit (WI – 36.4%)
The Foster #1H well, situated in the Ipanema AMI, is presently at a depth of 15,432 ft and is drilling horizontally within the Eagle Ford shale.


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

Just digging back through some earlier reports and those declines for Franke and T4 are very impressive. 

To my knowledge we didnt get a true raw IP, but our earliest IP reported was 1260 and 690. With tiny declines to 1244 and 683.

Those declines are staggeringly good. Be interesting to see what the 60 and 90 days are, but thats impressive.

Unfortunately this sort of news though makes AUT a massive TO Target. Why? Because who else can you buy out whos getting such rediculously good flow rates and declines time after time, with soooo much growth potential still available and not priced in and with an operator in place achieving such a fantastic success rate.


----------



## Magic Man (28 January 2011)

Condog i take it that this announcment is a great resuly for AUT?


----------



## Sirbill (28 January 2011)

Well it did hit $3 at one point this morning!


----------



## cmxd (28 January 2011)

GMP Securities AUT 12-month target price $3.85, reported on 25/01/2011

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1469&EID=32398156&PageName=GMP Securities


----------



## AngusSmart (28 January 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Condog i take it that this announcment is a great resuly for AUT?




One great flow, and one ok flow. so all in all a good announcement and many more to come!

new euroz out today also but same price $3.60, see you there in about 3-5 weeks 

4 rigs now also with a further 2 dew apparently in the coming few months.


----------



## Sirbill (28 January 2011)

Closed today at $3


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

Courtesy of a friend on here GMP have started issueing a BUY on AUT with a target of $3.85

Initiating Coverage: Significant Upside In Low
Risk Eagle Ford Development

We are initiating coverage this morning on Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd with a BUY
recommendation and $3.85 target price. We are providing an overview of our
investment thesis with this comment and are also publishing a more detailed report
later today.

High leverage to oil prices with 80% of the firm?s projected revenues
being generated by oil, condensate and NGL?s.

Well positioned financially with ~$90 million in cash to fund an active
2011 capital program.

Expected to list on the Toronto Stock Exchange in February 2011

Low risk development with significant upside potential. AUT currently
has production and is developing a known field.

AUT is the only ?pure play? smaller cap producer in the ?sweet spot?,
giving investors significant leverage to the upside potential.

We estimate that the Company has the inventory to grow its net share
of production to 29,000 boe/d by 2017.

Very good upside potential beyond the current reserve report bookings.

We are initiating coverage of AUT Oil and Gas Ltd (ASX-AUT) with a
BUY recommendation and a 12-month target price of A$3.85 which
implies a potential return of 40% from the recent share price.



BUY recommendation and A$3.85 target price

We are initiating coverage of Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT-ASX) with a BUY recommendation and a 12-
month target price of A$3.85 which implies a potential return of 40% from the recent share price. AUT
recently completed a US$120 million acquisition to increase its working interest in three AMI?s plus the
addition of interest in a fourth AMI in the Sugarkane Field in the heart of the what we believe is the
?over pressured? sweet spot within the Eagle Ford shale play in southeast Texas. Post the acquisition
AUT now has exposure to ~900 (192 net) low risk, high netback, locations within the condensate and oil
windows of the Eagle Ford play based on 80 acre spacing. Recent well results are proving to be better
than the type curves which supports our positive outlook on the field development plans over the next
few years and the subsequent upside we see in the valuation. On the basis of the Independent
Reserves Report by Netherland Sewell & Associates, AUT now has the inventory to grow its net share
of production to 29,000 boe/d by 2017. AUT is the only smaller cap ?pure play? producer in the ?sweet
spot?, giving investors significant leverage to the upside potential.


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

Then from another friend , issued by Euroz today.

Price Target: $3.60/sh
 Reason For Update: Operations Update

What We Know:          AUT has released updated production data from the Longhorn and Ipanama AMIs.
Turnbull-4H (Longhorn - 25% WI) production to 30-days totalled 30.1kbbls and 69mmscf on highly restricted choke.
The well has exhibited negligible decline from the reported initial 10-day average: 1260boe/d (10 day av.) to 1244boe/d (30 day av.)
Franke-1H (Ipanema - 30% WI) produced 14.9kbbls and 54mmscf over 30 days.
Decline rate from the 10day (683boepd) to 30 day (796boepd) average was 14%.
These results follow recent Sugarloaf AMI 30 day results from Urrutia-1H (19.4kbbls & 53mmscf) and Kowalik-1R (16.1kbbls & 50mmscf).
Urrutia and Kowalik exhibited 13% and 4% declines from the first 10 to 30 day averages.
Similarly, 60 day production results from Luna-1H (39.5kbbls & 120mmscf) and May-1H (32.7kbbls & 115mmscf) showed arrested declines from the 30 to 60 day averages.
Luna’s 60 (866boepd) to 30 day av. (931boepd) implied a 7% decline, whilst Kowalik (745boepd vs. 760boepd) showed a 2% decline.
Sienkiewicz-1H (Longhorn - 25% WI) and Direct Assets-1H (Sugarloaf – 10% WI) are cleaning up to sales.
Yosko-1H (Longhorn - 31.9% WI), Barboza-1H (32.9%), Foster Unit (Ipanema – 36.4%) and Gilley-1H (Sugarloaf – 10%) are undergoing drilling and completions.
Two new rigs have commenced in the field (4 total); we expect addition of at least a further two over the next few months.
60 wells are planned for the CY: ~30x Longhorn (AUT – 31.9%); ~20x Excelsior (9.1%); ~7x Sugarloaf (15.7%) and ~3x Ipanema (36.4%).
AUT will list on the TSX in Feb.
What We Think:AUT’s latest results continue to track ahead of our 15% risked Sugarkane Field ‘type-curve’: Continued strong results will warrant removal of our risk factor.
The low to negligible decline rates clearly benefit from the premium reservoir characteristics of AUT Sugarkane Field interests, noting that tubing head pressures remain exceptionally high.
Implied revenues at current spot prices continues to strengthen expectations of circa 6mnth pay-back at current commodity prices.
Additionally, strength of the production data bodes well for the revised reserves statement in the Mar Q.
With around 2.5x more wells on production at Dec 31 (vs Jun 30 for the July statement), we anticipate a 2P to be in the range of 25-35mmboe.
With the CY’11 drilling programme designed to hold a majority of AUT’s participating acreage, we foresee a majority of current 3P 84mmboe reserves shifting to 2P category in a year’s time.
Furthermore, tighter development well spacing (vertically and horizontally), continued out-performance vs. the Netherland&Sewell type-curve, and higher EURs encourages us to see significant upside to 3P reserves can be realized over the next few years.
Importantly, with over 70 wells on production by Dec 31, 1P reserves could exceed 40mmboe cum-Feb’12 reserves release.
This augers well for AUT to achieve net share production of +2.5kboe/d by mid-CY’11 and exit the CY at 5kboe/d.
A US$100/bbl oil price long-term from CY’12 provides for a $3.60/sh.
We highlight the leverage AUT offers to rising oil prices; applying US$120/bbl long-term underpins a $4.40/sh valuation.
Additionally, with commissioning of the new wet-gas pipeline, revenue streams will be boosted by LPG revenues.
Investment Case:
The latest operational results continue to build on the quality argument for AUT’s Sugarkane Field interests: Results continue to track ahead of our forecasts.  The results build upon a highly accretive acquisition that will result in a 50% increase to AUT’s current acreage position in the field. 
Forthcoming reserves statements in the Mar Q will consolidate the value potential on an EV:2P reserve basis.  Beyond which growing production - +5000boep/d end CY’11 increasing to a peak of +20kboe/d by CY’17 – makes for a compelling investment proposition. 
Buy with a valuation of $3.60/sh, noting significant upside that can crystallize from oil price momentum, incorporation of LPG revenues and continued production out-performance.


----------



## Assasin (28 January 2011)

I can't stand it, surely $3.00 is worth some of these.

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


Normally Condog leads the charge but he's obviously been busy.
Enjoy everyone.


----------



## ibows1 (28 January 2011)

sorry guys all new to this...this euroz valuation where can it be found? do u have to be a member with euroz to access?

TIA


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

ibows1 said:


> sorry guys all new to this...this euroz valuation where can it be found? do u have to be a member with euroz to access?
> 
> TIA




Ring emmmm is best. 

They wont give you free reports unless you gunna spend money with them some where though. Most of it winds up in here in a nice timely manner so i wouldnt stress.


----------



## condog (28 January 2011)

Assasin said:


> I can't stand it, surely $3.00 is worth some of these.
> 
> :bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi
> 
> ...




Yep its probably a bannanas day for sure. Glad to see you unveiling them.

Plenty to be excited about. When you consider the phenominal PE some other energy players are currently operating on its worth doing some sums on bigger PE's to see the potential.


----------



## trader8888 (28 January 2011)

condog said:


> Yep its probably a bannanas day for sure. Glad to see you unveiling them.
> 
> Plenty to be excited about. When you consider the phenominal PE some other energy players are currently operating on its worth doing some sums on bigger PE's to see the potential.




Condog, im doing some valuations and i just wanted to ask what PE ratio are you using and how did you work out the EPS, as we have'nt had any cash flow to work out an EPS as yet.


----------



## easylikesunday (29 January 2011)

Stochastic 3 day SMA is sitting at around 90%, Twiggs Money Flow is strong, Volume rising, whats next?

I see a very small retrace to around $2.95 then another run to $3.25 by mid Feb. Or maybe we wont see a retrace at all??

Thats just what my amateur eyes see anyway 

Looking forward to the next big ANN.

P.S. That $3.85 valuation seems pretty conservative..  I think we will be around that figure late July.


----------



## condog (29 January 2011)

Trader i use a spread sheet where i have the flows and projected flows for each well. I multiply it out using the oil price *70%, i use 40% tax and royalties and then multiply it by a WI for each well. On the projected future wells i use an average flow and average working interest.

I use a 14PE. The sector average is 26. 

See page 17 and 18 of this AUT thread for examples of my much earlier spreadsheets. Ive refined them a lot since then and imo i have them a lot more accurate now. When i look back no they look pretty rough to me.


----------



## trader8888 (29 January 2011)

condog said:


> Trader i use a spread sheet where i have the flows and projected flows for each well. I multiply it out using the oil price *70%, i use 40% tax and royalties and then multiply it by a WI for each well. On the projected future wells i use an average flow and average working interest.
> 
> I use a 14PE. The sector average is 26.
> 
> See page 17 and 18 of this AUT thread for examples of my much earlier spreadsheets. Ive refined them a lot since then and imo i have them a lot more accurate now. When i look back no they look pretty rough to me.




Cheers condog.


----------



## condog (30 January 2011)

New Well application lodged. Turnbull 6H

If there's four rigs on site the pace of drilling is going to catch up with thise approved wells pretty quickly. Should start seeing more apps being lodged in the next two weeks.


----------



## condog (30 January 2011)

Quarterly announcment out tommorrow. Should make for good reading.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 January 2011)

Where do you find information about the applications condog?


----------



## trader8888 (30 January 2011)

Hey condog. Good to see your still posting over hear, after what those low lifes did to you over at HC. I share the same view as you, that a %50 decline rate in 30 days is not acceptable and sold out for a decent profit to wait and see the 60 day flow rates and the IP of the next well. 

love your posts, keep up the good work!!


----------



## condog (31 January 2011)

Cheers Trader 

BRIGHTGREENGLO

In reference to well apps 

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/

then you use thier online database

search for W1's    new oil and gas wells

in Karnes county

operator = hilcorp


----------



## condog (31 January 2011)

Quarterly out now 

Some amazing predictions re reserves statemtn due out end of Feb. Read last few paragraphs on page 8 and start of page 9, where they are talking about potential EUR of 465Million boe per well over the life of the well. Those figures would be staggering.



> EOG has for example has recently increased the Expected Ultimate Recovery (“EUR”) per well in their Eastern Area adjacent to the North of Sugarkane by 20% from 385 mboe net (481 mboe gross) to 460 mboe net (575 mboe gross) per well.4
> To put this in perspective, the Reserves Report prepared by NSAI for Aurora provides for a gross EUR of 465 mboe per well within the volatile oil zone that is adjacent to EOG’s
> Eastern Acreage.




On the not so good side, still repaying hilcorp and flows imo slightly lower then anticipated accross the entire acerage, but still very ver economical imo.

NSAI placed a huge value on the new acquisition  







> The
> NPV(10) of Proved plus Probable plus Possible reserves is estimated to be approximately
> US$431 million.



. If thats the case then the extrapolation for mcap of AUT is approx 3x that which is around $1.3B imo.

All good, current mcap =$1.2B

I think john needs to be a bit more specific about the cash flow situation and exactly how close we are , given its delay again.


----------



## Sdajii (31 January 2011)

condog said:


> Quarterly out now
> 
> Some amazing predictions re reserves statemtn due out end of Feb. Read last few paragraphs on page 8 and start of page 9, where they are talking about potential EUR of 465Million boe per well over the life of the well. Those figures would be staggering.




465 million barrels of oil equivalent per well? Staggering to say the least! You're talking something like four billion dollars per well? I assume that's a typo? Am I missing something? Knock a couple of zeroes off the end and it would sound more realistic, and still awesome... unless I'm missing something, which is possible.


----------



## rcm617 (31 January 2011)

Thats 465 thousand boe per well (465mboe). Nomenclature for million is mmboe.


----------



## AngusSmart (31 January 2011)

Hilcorp have a few wells out on excelsior, and connoco have a whole bunch just below it.. if only we could get connocos well data. that would be great.. i am sure the new acreage is spot on however.. cant wait for that to be developed.. along with the rest, pretty happy with the report. however thought we would be getting a more income from oil..

Nice hard close today.. wish my buy at 2.96 got hit today.. missed out by a weeee bit..


----------



## Sdajii (31 January 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Thats 465 thousand boe per well (465mboe). Nomenclature for million is mmboe.




I looked at the report, yes, it was 465mboe. Something like 40 million dollars in oil per well. Still sounds pretty awesome! New 52 week high today, and a new all time high closing price.

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## condog (31 January 2011)

Apollogies for any confucion

mboe is thousand

mmboe is million

I read it as approx $46M per well minus tax royalties and opex. Thats a fantastic ROI per well. And remember by end of 2011 we will have around 80 wells that cost approx $560M, and assets with cash generation capacity of 80*$45M or so  = $3.6B gross, cash genration.  Lets say $1.8B after tax royalties and opex over about 7 years , equates to approx $260M p.a. income. net 
give that a PE of 10-16 and you can see some basis to current and future valuations between $1.5B - $3B or so.


----------



## Agentm (31 January 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Hilcorp have a few wells out on excelsior, and connoco have a whole bunch just below it.. if only we could get connocos well data. that would be great.. i am sure the new acreage is spot on however.. cant wait for that to be developed.. along with the rest, pretty happy with the report. however thought we would be getting a more income from oil..
> 
> Nice hard close today.. wish my buy at 2.96 got hit today.. missed out by a weeee bit..




which well data do you need angussmart?

i can get you any well data for any well you like. i had no idea conoco were in the oil aspect of the play as yet.

excelsior acreages are in the oil region i believe, eog has had some amazing results in the region they have spent a lot of capital on well exploration development and design. 

i have posted up the eog reports a while back and its impressive, their eur's are real impressive, no one is doubting their data thus far i see. (also similar to swifts) also not doubted interestingly!! 

eog have nice theory on the oil aspect of the efs, the studies they have done are very clever, its clear there are good argument for the efs being a great play, and the oil window has been a long arduous road for eog with very impressive planning and development 

i have see some stunning results in the oil window, and its obvious there are some real good regions. i am keeping a track of many of the new plays and players in the oil window..




sdajii


the efs is really kicking goals..  its been good for many operators that are developing the shale.. the anti efs antagonists are looking weaker and weaker as more and more operators come in and make great inroads into the very lucrative oil play..


----------



## Sdajii (31 January 2011)

Agentm said:


> sdajii
> 
> 
> the efs is really kicking goals..  its been good for many operators that are developing the shale.. the anti efs antagonists are looking weaker and weaker as more and more operators come in and make great inroads into the very lucrative oil play..




   I agree, the Eagleford shale is pretty yummy 

I'm a very happy holder of EKA, AUT and TXN  Started with ADI almost a year ago, haven't looked back, and am doing extremely well from it!


----------



## trader8888 (31 January 2011)

condog said:


> Quarterly out now
> 
> Some amazing predictions re reserves statemtn due out end of Feb. Read last few paragraphs on page 8 and start of page 9, where they are talking about potential EUR of 465Million boe per well over the life of the well. Those figures would be staggering.
> 
> ...





Condog, i think some of AUT's recent wells will surpass the EUR of 465,000boe per well - with 
Rancho Grande doing - 134,115bbls in 197 days
Morgan Doing - 141,231bbls in 217 days


This is not including the gas


----------



## trader8888 (31 January 2011)

Doing some calcs and i get an EPS 0.41C per share. This is on 5000boepd, $90 oil 365days. This is going by the Euroz's report.

PE Ratio - $3.05 Divide 0.41 = 7.4

Currently trading at a PE of 7.

So condog im guessing your PE of 14 is of the expection of geetting around 10,000boepd by the end off 2011. 

Please correct me if i have done something wrong.


----------



## AngusSmart (1 February 2011)

How can i refuse 

got a few wasnt sure what to grab but they are all somewhat in the direction of the new acreages..

i believe they are from a company connoco bought out a few years back, hopefully they are fairly new holes..??


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Doing some calcs and i get an EPS 0.41C per share. This is on 5000boepd, $90 oil 365days. This is going by the Euroz's report.
> 
> PE Ratio - $3.05 Divide 0.41 = 7.4
> 
> ...




I havent cross checked. But commenting on the 7.4 PE. Yeh youd expect a PE that low from an old technology limited growth stock, not a company thats set to rapidly grow. PE conservatively would be 10-12 for a growth stock and realisticly imo 14-16.  Sure they can be way higher, but ???? value for money.


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

Huntleys put out a $2.53 target on AUT with a take profit. LMFAO  fools. Obviously got no idea whats going to be driving the price in coming months.


----------



## WRONG'UN (1 February 2011)

Update on AUT/EKA relationship.
...............................................................................


----------



## Magic Man (1 February 2011)

Is anyone in this AUT thread familiar with the The Amazon prospect. Good consolidation day for AUT while SEA did the hard yards


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

Hey i wonder if Joe will let me bitch and moan about the Mods at HC. What a bunch of absolute dogs. They suspended me for 14 days for using the very same "f" word our little KRudd used when he was PM. By the way they gave me 2 days for saying KRudd.


Then when i wrote to them and asked them why they have now suspended me for 14 days, and asked them to remove two threads i regarded as slightly defamatory, they told me i was threatenming them and they permanetly suspended me. 

So wont be on that forum anymore. So let me say HotCopper mods are dogs. Low life demi god dogs.  

On tiopic, nice finish to a bad start for the day.


----------



## trader8888 (1 February 2011)

gee the mods at HC dont sound like very nice people. 

On another note, what where Huntlys reasons for taking profit at the moment?? Their are two other brokers with valations of $3.60 and $3.85 at the moment. Lol i remember a broker saying (may have been hartleys) to reduce shares in AUT at $1.65 look where we are now LOL 

Just shows you how good their research is, take them with a pinch of salt.


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> gee the mods at HC dont sound like very nice people.
> 
> On another note, what where Huntlys reasons for taking profit at the moment?? Their are two other brokers with valations of $3.60 and $3.85 at the moment. Lol i remember a broker saying (may have been hartleys) to reduce shares in AUT at $1.65 look where we are now LOL
> 
> Just shows you how good their research is, take them with a pinch of salt.




I personally wouldnt put pattersons in the same league as Euroz and most others. 
No doubt some consolidation will have to happen before we go too far, but that reserves report could be amazing. Just think back to what the extra 5000 acres did. Theres got to be at least 50c to $1 in a reserves upgrade like we are expecting. 

Hilcorp was careful imo to make sure they drilled in possible and probable sites to make them proven, so im expecting a significant upgrade.


----------



## AngusSmart (1 February 2011)

condog said:


> Huntleys put out a $2.53 target on AUT with a take profit. LMFAO  fools. Obviously got no idea whats going to be driving the price in coming months.





looks like my stops are getting hit.. uh oh! better sell now!!

someone want some cheap shares?? i'll be offloading soon..


----------



## AngusSmart (1 February 2011)

condog said:


> On tiopic, nice finish to a bad start for the day.




P.s it was a great start.. and a bad day.. but an ok finish... i decided to top up some..

and if anyone knows someone at ig markets.. please tell them to look at sea.. they keep telling me its too volatile....... now isnt that what they make money off??


----------



## philly (1 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Is anyone in this AUT thread familiar with the The Amazon prospect. Good consolidation day for AUT while SEA did the hard yards




Hey Magic Man, re Amazon prospect I provide the following info:
There are 3 ASX companies that have an interest in the Amazon - QPN, TNP & TSV
They are currently drilling a well.

The Amazon and Thames prospects are part of a regional exploration project in south Louisiana. Approximately 1,000 square miles of proprietary reprocessed Seitel 3D data has been completed by the Operator with integrated key well and production data obtained.

The Amazon prospect is a large scale, hanging wall fold with nearly 2,000 acres in fault dependent closure including a 400 acre faulted four‐way closure. The prospective reservoir interval is Oligocene sands which appear seismically very thick. Amazon has good AVO and Fluid Factor support. A 16,000 ft exploration test of this multi‐segment prospect is expected to spud in mid January, 2011. The test well will drill through the Oligocene target sands between 14,000 ft and 16,000 ft where it is expected to encounter abnormal reservoir pressure in the order of 11,000 psi.

The Thames Prospect is currently proposed to drill a 16,000ft exploration test well of this multi‐segment prospect on the flank of a vertical salt weld. The Thames prospect has stacked objectives in a fault bound block with one larger, deeper objective target interval providing large volume upside. The prospective reservoir interval is Oligocene ponded basin floor fan. The prospect has good AVO support. The Thames well is expected to spud in 2011 following the drilling and testing of the Amazon target reservoirs.

Partners are:Tango Petroleum Ltd (ASX:TNP) 17.50%, Quest Petroleum NL (ASX:QPN)
15%, Transerv Energy Ltd (ASX:TSV) 5% and Other Partners 62.50%


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

The SEA debate rages on they are both two great companies imo. Im in AUt and not in SEa, but thats not by choice, its due to CGT problems. 

AUT no probs, plenty more in it, in fact, just about to accellerate greatly. So long suckers who believe otherwise, just watch the next 3 months.

Angus you must be kidding, or you have totally mis interpreted whats about to happen imo. 

Ps Hot copper mods suck. sorry couldnt resist, they are arseholes'
Hot copper is basically a ramp athon on 98% of threads anyway. ASF is so much a better forum.


----------



## Magic Man (1 February 2011)

I just noticed the sellers for AUT are well well up on the buyers.. Could this bring a pull back technically??


----------



## condog (1 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I just noticed the sellers for AUT are well well up on the buyers.. Could this bring a pull back technically??




Doubt it. bound to be short periods of consolidation , followed by periods of growth imo. Too many tailwinds at present. Reserves report. 4th rig. well spacing? (thats the biggy.)

Magic yesterday i offloaded some, which bashed the sp most the arvo. No becuase i think its not going higher, i just had to for a tax reason and for a risk reduction reason. I dumped every time a big buyer appeared, which hammered it for a while. Still lots left in it and lots to come imo.


----------



## Magic Man (1 February 2011)

Thanks for that information Condog. i can understand u taking some profit when u have been in this one for so long. i jumped in around 1.60 and keen to stay in for atleast a year.


----------



## trader8888 (1 February 2011)

condog said:


> Doubt it. bound to be short periods of consolidation , followed by periods of growth imo. Too many tailwinds at present. Reserves report. 4th rig. well spacing? (thats the biggy.)
> 
> Magic yesterday i offloaded some, which bashed the sp most the arvo. No becuase i think its not going higher, i just had to for a tax reason and for a risk reduction reason. I dumped every time a big buyer appeared, which hammered it for a while. Still lots left in it and lots to come imo.





Condog, if you dont mind me asking what % of your AUT holding did you sell, im coming up to my 12mt holding in April and was planning of selling %30 of my holding. 

Hopefully SEA have'nt gone up to much by then, as i am holding very minimal stock in SEA ATM and will look to add once i sell AUT.


----------



## condog (2 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Condog, if you dont mind me asking what % of your AUT holding did you sell, im coming up to my 12mt holding in April and was planning of selling %30 of my holding.
> 
> Hopefully SEA have'nt gone up to much by then, as i am holding very minimal stock in SEA ATM and will look to add once i sell AUT.




I was 100% in AUT. I sold 18% of my holding. I personally think its going higher, but with 100% in AUt, it was time to reduce my exposure. I would have stupidly done it ages ago except for the rediculous CGT rules in AUstralia. 

Got more then my original purchase back so now the rest is on the market so to speak. No intentions of selling much more any time soon.


----------



## condog (2 February 2011)

In regard to the SEA / AUT debate. YEs both brilliant so far. SEA certainly got more room for growth based on mcap. 

But realistically AUt next 3 months so far look better imo. Beyond that, we dont know yet.

Keep an eye on SSN and TXN as well. Right now TXN arguably imo is way way over priced and over bought, based on horendous ramping on AFs and HC. If however tXN can get its declines sorted and drill a second well with good flows and declines, and continue with productive olmos wells it may be worth a punt. But certainly not yet as imo its been way way over pumped. Thats not a popular belief, but its my opinion. SSN however is plodding along nicely and may have a lot of upside. DYOR and seek advice.

Values can change rapidly with development, so TXN, if they get it right could quickly go from imo way overpriced to underpriced with just a couple of good announcments.


----------



## AngusSmart (2 February 2011)

condog said:


> The SEA debate rages on they are both two great companies imo. Im in AUt and not in SEa, but thats not by choice, its due to CGT problems.
> 
> AUT no probs, plenty more in it, in fact, just about to accellerate greatly. So long suckers who believe otherwise, just watch the next 3 months.
> 
> ...




I guess you mean about my selling?? was sarcasm  theres no way i am letting go again! infact i bought more today..


----------



## Magic Man (2 February 2011)

To all my fellow AUT holders. Anyone who is in the vicinity of Cyclone Yasi id like to say good luck and stay safe. Myself and BrightGreen are from Townsville and are patiently waiting to see what the cyclone is going to do next. The yard has been completely cleared and all rollerdoors and windows have been boarded and blocked as best we can. If anyone else here is in the danger zone we hope you stay safe and everything is okay.

Thanks, and thanks for the great information everyone has provided on this stock.
Cheers.


----------



## poverty (2 February 2011)

AUT now approved for commsec margin lending with a 35% single stock LVR


----------



## condog (2 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> To all my fellow AUT holders. Anyone who is in the vicinity of Cyclone Yasi id like to say good luck and stay safe. Myself and BrightGreen are from Townsville and are patiently waiting to see what the cyclone is going to do next. The yard has been completely cleared and all rollerdoors and windows have been boarded and blocked as best we can. If anyone else here is in the danger zone we hope you stay safe and everything is okay.
> 
> Thanks, and thanks for the great information everyone has provided on this stock.
> Cheers.




I second that. All the best guys, have a safe one, be smart,. dont take any risks and see you on the other side, hopefully with minimal damage and loss.


----------



## bennywizard (2 February 2011)

poverty said:


> AUT now approved for commsec margin lending with a 35% single stock LVR




Where did you hear this? I cant see it listed as having an LVR


----------



## poverty (2 February 2011)

bennywizard said:


> Where did you hear this? I cant see it listed as having an LVR




When I log into comsec and view my margin account it lists the latest changes.

_"Please note that Biota Holdings Ltd (BTA) has been capped with no further lending permitted.

Please note that Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT) has been approved for Margin Lending - Standard LVR of 35%

The LVRs of the following securities have been reduced - Clarius Group Ltd (CND) PLVR now 40% standard 35% and single stock portfolio 35%. IAG Finance NZ Notes (IANG) PLVR 75% Standard 70% & single stock portfolio 65%."_

However when I plug a purchase into the what-if calculator it doesn't calculate with an LVR, puts me straight into margin call  lol.


----------



## bennywizard (2 February 2011)

bennywizard said:


> Where did you hear this? I cant see it listed as having an LVR




Just off the phone to comsec, I can confirm that as of today AUT has an LVR as a Single stock of 30%, standard 35% ,  Bonus LVR 40% (It wont show for up to 30 days, but it is active as of today)


----------



## condog (2 February 2011)

Cheers Newry. 

On the consolidation i agree, the last couple of days is soaking up a lot of the sales volume at or above $3, creating a whole new support level, which is very healthy indeed. Nothing wrong with taking breathers along the way and concolidating, it inspires more confidence then a rapid rise or spike.


----------



## estseon (3 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Doing some calcs and i get an EPS 0.41C per share. This is on 5000boepd, $90 oil 365days. This is going by the Euroz's report.
> 
> PE Ratio - $3.05 Divide 0.41 = 7.4
> 
> ...




There has been discussion before on whether a resource company should be valued by reference to reserves or to P/E. The view was the former. At peak production, a resource company valued on the basis of P/E could be valued at more than the NPV of reserves, which would not make a lot of sense. The oil giants that have a long record of maintaining reserves through additions at least matching production might be valued on P/E or dividend yield. But AUT is focussed and is currently de-risking and proving up the acreage. I'd have thought that valuation by reference to reserves would be the more likely at this stage.

But, if the earnings per share reach 41c and it is valued at P/E of 14, you would be looking at a share price of $5.74. If it is valued at, say, 10% discount to NPV10 reserves, you'd need 2P reserves of about $2.7bn (about 2x value in the presentation).

There are lots of factors that could increase the valuation - the company has said that some of the acreage (10 - 15% from memory) was not taken into account last time. The oil price is obviously higher. There's more experience with declines. The company has hinted about 60 acre spacings. The average liquids ratio may have increased. A lower discount rate may be applied to reflect reduced risk (doubtful). The rate of development has increased (which will improve NPV). But we might find it hard to get to $2.7bn. But, you never know... All of these factors compound up. I certainly intend to remain fully invested until the valuation is published.


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

Ive valued this thing over and over using both reserves and discounted cash flow projections and they arent too dis-similar. 

Personally i believe your best to use a consensus valuation, ie get as many as you can and use the average of all of them, as they all can arguably be right or wrong. 

*Your better to be roughly right then precisely wrong. *

Right now ive just punched in my new numbers using the info from the latest preso. 

I will list a few scenarios here:
1. Oil $90net, Gas $4.50 net , ave well 450boepd and 2mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $7
2 Oil $80net, Gas $4.00 net , ave well 450boepd and 2mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $5.60
3. Oil $90net, Gas $4.50 net , ave well 400boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $5.30
4. Oil $80net, Gas $4.00 net , ave well 400boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $4.20
5. Oil $75 net, Gas $3.50 net , ave well 450boepd and 2mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $4.80
6. Oil $75 net, Gas $3.50 net , ave well 400boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $3.50
7. Oil $80 net, Gas $4.00net , ave well 375boepd and 1.5mmcfgpd
End of 2011 imo around $3.70

*In the above cases, thats my opinion on value, it does not necesarily mean the market will agree.*

The above is using a discount cash flow method, takes into account tax and royalties to 40%. Does not take into account currency 

*Note the above is only  an opinion and for discussion. It may contain errors.  DO NOT base decisions on it ever. Always Do Your Own Research and seek GOOD proffessional advice. *


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

Theres been a significant buyer from 21st jan to yesterday who has accumulated 5% of the company. Thats possibly a goof thing, as it gives JP Morgan, The Stewarts, This Mob and "us combined"  a good controling stake in the event of any low ball predatory take over offers.

The new mob is called "harbour advisors" from Canada, clearly theres some interest in Canada, which bodes well for the upcoming TSX listing. My opinion is they either really want in, or they really want a portion, because they think they can off load them after the TSX listing for a decent profit. In either case its a good thing for AUT.

*I updated my valuations today back on bottom of page 106*


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

Euroz update out on AUT stil $3.60 share with significant possible upside flagged.


AUT is tracking well ahead of Euroz 15% risked curve, which thier valuation is based on.









> Buy with a valuation of $3.60/sh, noting signiﬁcant upside that can crystallize from
> oil price momentum, incorporation of LPG revenues, continued production out-
> performance and further growth via acquisition.


----------



## Sharejon (3 February 2011)

The investor presentation has provided the following information on where the 60 (or there abouts) wells will be drilled in this 2011 program. I've decided to do a few calculations on where I see the production being at come the end of December 2011.

Sugarloaf 15.7% (9.5 wells, let's say 9)
Longhorn 31.9% (30 wells)
Ipanema 36.4% (0.5 wells, let's say 0)
Excelsior 9.1% (20 wells)

In order (net wells): 1.413 + 9.57 + 0 + 1.82 = 12.8 Gross producing wells.

Let's say a 10% decline rate per 30 day period, starting from the initial production rate. The most recent well, Franke-1H declined about 12% in it's first 30 days and Turnbull-4H actually had a higher 30 day average than it's initial production, most likely due to Hilcorp gradually 'loosening' the choke setting. Overall, personally I feel 10% would be an accurate estimation considering how well AUT's declines have been performing, especially in recent times.

Please remember that in our recent wells, Hilcorp have been using highly restricted choke settings, and gradually loosening the choke over the first few days I believe, hence just like Turnbull-4H, the actual initial production could well be less than the 10 day production average. So for those who think 10% declines are optimistic, then I urge you to consider the above statement.

Using the latest investor presentation, the IP average from the 17 wells we have information from (9 Sugarloaf, 4 Longhorn, 2 Ipanema), the presentation states the average oil production is 827 barrels per day + the average gas production is 3.01 mmcf/d.

6:1 Ratio = 1329 boep/d
12:1 Ratio = 1078 boep/d 

I'll personally use the 12:1 ratio, as it's more accurate for the actual condensate/gas equivalent. We've learnt in the last few days that 6:1 is now used as a North American Industry benchmark, however I don't think it's realistic just yet. If I used the 6:1 ratio figure's stated below would have been higher.

Since some wells drilled this year will experience up to 12 months of declines and some wells will experience 0 months of declines along with the fact that wells are constantly being drilled every week or there abouts, on average each well would experience 6 months worth of declines.

1078 (average IP) *0.9 (less 10% decline)^6 (0.9 to the power of 6 because the 10% declines will be experienced, on average, for 6 x 30 day periods).

That comes out as 572.9 boep/d (12:1) for the average production per gross well drilled in the 2011 program, at December 31 2011.

572.9 * 12.8 = 7333 boep/d

Add on the wells from this year (which are currently producing a total of 1400 boep/d at 12:1) and let's say they'll decline to 700 boep/d total by the end of 2011.

That's 8,000 boep/d, and that's what I'll be looking for come December 31, 2011.

Make of them what you will, that's just how I see things


----------



## philly (3 February 2011)

condog said:


> Theres been a significant buyer from 21st jan to yesterday who has accumulated 5% of the company. Thats possibly a goof thing, as it gives JP Morgan, The Stewarts, This Mob and "us combined"  a good controling stake in the event of any low ball predatory take over offers.
> 
> The new mob is called "harbour advisors" from Canada, clearly theres some interest in Canada, which bodes well for the upcoming TSX listing. My opinion is they either really want in, or they really want a portion, because they think they can off load them after the TSX listing for a decent profit. In either case its a good thing for AUT.
> 
> *I updated my valuations today back on bottom of page 106*




Hey Condog, 
I guess that now AUT is in the ASX 200 and will soon be listed on the TSX that more institutional investors and fund managers will be attracted to it. Depending on thier strategies - hold or sell - the SP will vary accordingly. My only problem is the more they hold the less shares are available for the ordinary holder. Glad to be part of "us combined" I wonder what % we would hold


----------



## Sharejon (3 February 2011)

Sorry, the third paragraph down should read  "In order (gross wells)" (I accidentally typed net wells)


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

Sharejon said:


> That comes out as 572.9 boep/d (12:1) for the average production per gross well drilled in the 2011 program, at December 31 2011.
> 
> 572.9 * 12.8 = 7333 boep/d
> 
> ...




I like your thinking sharejohn

Euroz estimate 5000, I think youve been a lot more detailed and possibly more accurate, but given my way of thinking im happy to take the consensue and go with  just over 6000 boepd.

Even at 5000, do thhe maths. 5000boepd * 350 days p.a. per well @ $90 odd = approx $157.5M gross p.a. with PE of 10 = over $1.5B. 

Realistically apply a PE of 14-16 and your getting mcap of approx $2.2B to $2.5B

This supports my other valuations back on page 106. 

Now for a moment imagine if they drill 80+ wells in 2012 what the mcap will be. Those who think AUt growth is finished are gidding themselves, sure i dont think we will see it going 700%+ p.a, but theres still plenty of upside in it, and its been very much derisked.


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

philly said:


> My only problem is the more they hold the less shares are available for the ordinary holder. Glad




I dont see that as a problem, i see it as a huge bonus. Tighly held companies are usually easy to sell at a premium, when your ready to sell. Thats only a problem for non holders.

Rememebr JP Morgan hold 9.68% + 8.54% = 18.22%

Jon and Carrolyn Stewart own somewhere around 6%

Yesterdays announcment puts Harbour Advisors at around 5%. 

Between us here and HC we would own another 5-10% id geuss???

Thats a nice controlling stake tos stop TO by predators, but still easily liquid enough to have a good buying and selling market happening.


----------



## Sdajii (3 February 2011)

Condog and others: Thanks for all the posts, this thread is excellent reading.

Condog: If you have the time, how do your current calculations and share price predictions come out if you substitute $50, $70 and $100 oil in?


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

Our thoughts and prayers are with you QLD and the regular posters from QLD.


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Condog and others: Thanks for all the posts, this thread is excellent reading.
> 
> Condog: If you have the time, how do your current calculations and share price predictions come out if you substitute $50, $70 and $100 oil in?




$100 & $4.5 at 400 and 1.5mm   = approx $6.35
$70 & $3.75 at 400 and 1.5mm  =  approx $3.17

$100 & $4.5 at 450 and 2mm   = approx $8.10
$70 & $3.75 at 450 and 2mm  =  approx $4.47
*
Again dont make decisions on this its for discusion purposes only.*


----------



## trader8888 (3 February 2011)

Reading the investor presentation it stated that the last reserves report did not include 10-15 percent of their land holding. 

So IMO worst case scenario is the our reserves will increase by 10-15 percent and i don't think its unreasonable and to see a 40-50 percent increase in reserves. On the back of better than expected declines, increased EUR, hight liquids ratio, and possibly 60acre well spacings.

Also hints of new land acquisition's.

I think with the increased drilling, AUT should be bringing out bi-monthly drilling reports. 

Next couple of months will be great IMO.


----------



## trader8888 (3 February 2011)

Wells shut for production in the EFS due to oil freezing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/storm-naturalgas-texas-idUSN0223178720110202


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

From Euroz they estimate end of 2011 with 5000 boepd

And peak boepd in 2017 of 20,000 boepd




Gives a pretty easy mcap estimate and hence extrapolated sp indication.


----------



## trader8888 (3 February 2011)

condog said:


> From Euroz they estimate end of 2011 with 5000 boepd
> 
> And peak boepd in 2017 of 20,000 boepd
> 
> ...




Hey condog, do tou have the link to that chart, i want to post it up on another forum.

Cheers.


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

just refer them to here. I dont want to support HotCopper in any way shape or form.


----------



## trader8888 (3 February 2011)

Nah was'nt for HC it was for Top Stocks. Got it any way, came up as an attachment in the quote lol.


----------



## condog (3 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Nah was'nt for HC it was for Top Stocks. Got it any way, came up as an attachment in the quote lol.




Thats not from Euroz, i used the data in the Euroz report to make the graph in excel.


----------



## trader8888 (3 February 2011)

No worries condog, edited the post. 

Going by sharejons production estimate for the end of 2011 - 8000BOEPD.

That would put us in the 3.3billion MC - SP around = $8.25. 

Do you think this is possible??


----------



## Japes (3 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> which well data do you need angussmart?
> 
> i can get you any well data for any well you like. i had no idea conoco were in the oil aspect of the play as yet.
> 
> ...





Any of you KIND FOLKS want to indulge an old man's curiousity ? My 1st post here. I came looking for the guns. Sorry if its A about.
Whats the Sugarkane history starting with Lucas selling/leasing to Hilcorp.
Then Texas Crude Energy get in the act,
then Empyrean,
then EKA & Adelphi(becomes AWE)
then AUT are in. Sugarkane seems broken up for deals but I'm not sure by who, into : Sugarloaf with AUT,AWE,EKA & unknown US players with Hilcorp as chief cook & bottle washers.
Longhorn with AUT, Hilcorp & US others unknown?
Ipanema with AUT, Hilcorp & unknown others.
Hilcorp must be indebted to some original land/leaseholder ? Maybe Lucas ?
I've been trying to DMOR, until now i'm my own granma.
Seems in all likelihood the ASX companies that we invest in have already made a sqillion just by putting up some cash. Hilcorp the gun operator is private & I wonder who else is maybe listed  on the US market.
I also put up some vague comments about comparing EUR's & M/caps on TXN on HC, because I've run out of betting money & nothing else to do. Regards Japes


----------



## Sharejon (3 February 2011)

Condog, 
First of all, thanks. Secondly, are the boep/d figures you use based on the production at the end of 2011/2012/2013 etc or are they production averages for the year?

And with the wells, you seem to mentioned a figure like 400 boep/d and 2 mmcf/d. Is the 2 mmcf/d included in the 400 boep/d in your mentioned figures?

Cheers, sharejon.


----------



## condog (4 February 2011)

Japes your doing alright thier, pretty close tot he mark. AUT own 9560 acres net, after hilcorp meet thier farmin obligation accross sugarloaf, ipenema and longhorn. Then they just recently purchased another 5000 acres called excellsior. TCEI was the original operator, but then Hilcorp excersized thier right to take over as operator. 



Sharejon said:


> Condog,
> First of all, thanks. Secondly, are the boep/d figures you use based on the production at the end of 2011/2012/2013 etc or are they production averages for the year?
> 
> And with the wells, you seem to mentioned a figure like 400 boep/d and 2 mmcf/d. Is the 2 mmcf/d included in the 400 boep/d in your mentioned figures?
> ...




400boepd of condensate + 2mmcfgpd as two seperate production figures. I should actually be calling it 400bocpd and 2mmcfgpd.

Im using them as production averages per well.


----------



## condog (4 February 2011)

Another very basic way to value it is peer comparison. 3p reserves currently at 82mmboe. Mcap approx $1.2B. = approx $14per boe in ground. 

TXN = 2.25mmboe  with mcap 137M   =  approx $60 per boe 

EKA = 5mmboe with 90M mcap = $$18 per boe in ground


----------



## condog (4 February 2011)

Hmm very very interesting to say the least. What is the new shaded are on the map ??

On page 9 of the presentation, which is page 10 of the pdf file. 





Pretty sizable too. If that eventuates into an acqusition, i think we can say hello $4.50 pretty quickly. 

There have certainly been enough hints about further acqusitions.

Then foloowed by this


They certainly imo seem to be pointing toward a negotiated acqusition of those red dots in the shaded area above. Otherwise why else would you define that shaded area above. hmmm????

It would appear that shaded area covers those red dots and the two greens to the South west in Live Oak. It ticks all the boxes , id nearly put money on it we are in for an announcment on this very soon .

Burlington, Pioneeer, Cinco and a few with lighter activity including Talisam, RoyalProd Co, MCCombs and a few others have had wells in late 2010 and early 2011 in Live Oak. I havent pinpointed who the acerage belongs to yet.


----------



## AngusSmart (4 February 2011)

condog said:


> Hmm very very interesting to say the least. What is the new shaded are on the map ??
> 
> On page 9 of the presentation, which is page 10 of the pdf file.
> 
> ...





https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5370&p=598189&viewfull=1#post598189

Back on page 92 

i looked into this a bit on trrc and found its all connoco's from what i could tell anyway.. unsure of the exact orientation


----------



## poverty (4 February 2011)

Gonna try and get some of this today for ~2.95, if I can manage to sell another holding.  Planning to hold until ~June, good prospects for SP growth in that time-frame I'm hoping.


----------



## poverty (4 February 2011)

In @ $2.94


----------



## Sirbill (4 February 2011)

Topped up at $2.90  

Condog, any ideas whats with the massive drop today?


----------



## rockhound308 (4 February 2011)

The following link is worth a look if you haven't already seen it.  Maybe TCE or Hilcorp will offload a bit more acreage to AUT

Cant vouch for the accuracy so DYOR


http://info.drillinginfo.com/urb/ea...rridor-producing-the-best-wells-in-the-trend/


----------



## trader8888 (4 February 2011)

Not sure if anyone had mentioned these before, but we have a few new well permits approved-

SALGE UNIT - 1H
BUEHRING UNIT - 1H
HOLLMAN UNIT - 1H
TURNBULL - 5H 
TURNBULL - 6H


----------



## condog (4 February 2011)

Rockhound, nice find. That TX Crude Energy area indicated with the blue almost fits the shape of the shaded area indicated on the AUT presentation. 




I noticed a lot of similarities when i cropped it. 

Good luck finding info on TCEI, very difficult, but would be great if someone can find more info on them.


----------



## rockhound308 (4 February 2011)

condog said:


> Good luck finding info on TCEI, very difficult, but would be great if someone can find more info on them.




I'm hearing you, have tried as well but these private US oilers keep their cards close.

I don't believe there is too much to be read into AUT including the Sugarkane AMI in their graphics, its all ways been there just the graphics are a bit nicer now. Would love to be proven wrong though.

 Supprised to see some large gaps in the leaseing especially below Turnbull, now that would be nice to have!

http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/3143/liveoakpermits.jpg


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (5 February 2011)

Sirbill said:


> Topped up at $2.90
> 
> Condog, any ideas whats with the massive drop today?



DYOR. I'm expecting it to drop even further. Still slightly overbought, but travelling nicely.


----------



## AngusSmart (5 February 2011)

I got a little bored but wanted to highlight where that map was really pointing to.. them maps they add to their presentations are not to scale obviously..

i've labeled most of the wells that Hilcorp/aurora etc participate in.. The thick brown lines are the countys borders....

and on the other side into Live oak county where BURLINGTON RESOURCES O & G CO LP aka conoco have all their wells. which i'd dare say is all that orange questionable area on the map


----------



## condog (5 February 2011)

Hi Angus, so you reckon they are burlington. On initially looking i thought the same , but after looking at the link above, im convinced the area is TCEInc. Thos blue areas if cropped properly have a scary resemblance to that shaded area. And given Jon Stewart knows TCEI mgmt extremely well, hed certainly be in a good position to negotiate something with TCEinc. 

Its all speculation sofar, but hey why the hell would you shade that orange area if it was meaningless.


----------



## condog (5 February 2011)

I note sharejon and esteon have been talking about infill acerage. LAst time i raised that with Jon he said pretty much a blanket no on that front, they are more targeting parcels of surrounding acerage, where the owner/operator are struggling or wont meet thier drilling obligations.


----------



## AngusSmart (5 February 2011)

condog said:


> Hi Angus, so you reckon they are burlington. On initially looking i thought the same , but after looking at the link above, im convinced the area is TCEInc. Thos blue areas if cropped properly have a scary resemblance to that shaded area. And given Jon Stewart knows TCEI mgmt extremely well, hed certainly be in a good position to negotiate something with TCEinc.
> 
> Its all speculation sofar, but hey why the hell would you shade that orange area if it was meaningless.




Thats the exact same question i was asking myself and posted here a 20 pages back.. lets hope they will become part of Auroras acreage anyway hey. its smack bang in the pressure oil zone.. 

Every well i click where i have written burlington comes up as burlington and they have smashed the area with so many wells.. and the further left i go into liveoak. the more burlington wells i come across.

So tx crude energy is tcei??


----------



## AngusSmart (5 February 2011)

Oh and does anyone know what guy is charging for that software? or access to the info from drilling info.com??


----------



## donteatme (5 February 2011)

I finally bought in at $2.92, wish that I did so earlier, but still glad to be sitting on this beast.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (5 February 2011)

Guys, how does dually-listed companies work in regards to SP affecting the other?

Are new shares issued for the new listing?
Surely open markets would track the company at roughly the same value?

Sorry if this is a really n00b question but this is in relation to AUT and any info would be great and I'm sure others would appreciate an answer from the experienced guys here.

Thanks in advance.


----------



## HEA815 (6 February 2011)

Got a nice little write up in the Eureka Report yesterday
_
In the world of exploration – where the hyperbole comes thick and fast – Aurora (AUT) is the real deal. The $1.2 billion company that you’ve never heard of is a genuine 10-bagger riding the coattails of drilling success and a spike in the oil price._

I wonder who exactly hasn't heard of it, seems to me to have got quite a bit of a following...


----------



## condog (6 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Guys, how does dually-listed companies work in regards to SP affecting the other?
> 
> Are new shares issued for the new listing?
> Surely open markets would track the company at roughly the same value?
> ...




Generally they are free to operate independently, but this is not always the case. Currency fluctuations and sp fluctuations will attract buyers and sellers to sort out any disparity. 

In regards to the Eureka report, i sent Alan many emails last year about AUT, he failed to listen, so they are a bit behind the 8 ball mentioning it now.


----------



## tothemax6 (6 February 2011)

Guys, as I understand it from the financials, all AUT does is loose money. What is the theory behind the buying, given that the share price has rocketed nontheless?


----------



## trader8888 (6 February 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Guys, as I understand it from the financials, all AUT does is loose money. What is the theory behind the buying, given that the share price has rocketed nontheless?




Read an investor presentation and a EUROZ report, that will open your eyes.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (6 February 2011)

Yo to the max, fundamentally AUT has some of the best acerage in the eagle ford shale in America, it's just starting to ramp up production as previously there was no cashflow in the company, this is changing rapidly as each well is drilled. If you only invest on past cashflow/profits, you'll never understand the growth stocks, and should stick to the "blue chips".

I used to hold but the implied growth was a bit much, probably lots of upside left in it but I won't be one taking the risks on.


----------



## poverty (6 February 2011)

The best thing about buying a company that always loses money, but is about to make money, is that you make a lot of money?


----------



## trader8888 (6 February 2011)

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Yo to the max, fundamentally AUT has some of the best acerage in the eagle ford shale in America, it's just starting to ramp up production as previously there was no cashflow in the company, this is changing rapidly as each well is drilled. If you only invest on past cashflow/profits, you'll never understand the growth stocks, and should stick to the "blue chips".
> 
> I used to hold but the implied growth was a bit much, probably lots of upside left in it but I won't be one taking the risks on.




I think that you will find most of the risk has been taken out, and now their is very little risk. AUT is turning into a bluechip, if it is'nt already one (its in the ASX 200)

Only risks i can see are  - PIGS, OIL falling which is highly unlikely, American econemy (which is related to the price of OIL) , Enviromental.

Most of those risks their will effect every single stock.

All IMO, DYOR


----------



## condog (7 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> I think that you will find most of the risk has been taken out, and now their is very little risk. AUT is turning into a bluechip, if it is'nt already one (its in the ASX 200)
> 
> Only risks i can see are  - PIGS, OIL falling which is highly unlikely, American econemy (which is related to the price of OIL) , Enviromental.
> 
> ...




Well said.

Been very much derisked. Cash flow not appearing on balance sheet as it has a well repayment agreement with hilcorp. That doesnt mean money isnt being made. It means hilcorp lent us the money up front and we are currently repaying it, When the cash starts flowing most will be shocked how suddenly it begins flowing. 

To the max, probably pay for you to spend some time researching it. Start by reading the Euroz reports posted in here around page 104-107 somewhere.


----------



## shanti (7 February 2011)

Max6     if you want positive cash flow above growth prospects go with RCO. The only time RCO share significantly increased was before dividend, they pass on profits to shareholders via very generous dividends. I'd rather stay with AUT


----------



## Assasin (7 February 2011)

Just read this, from Carey Smith from Alto Capital regarding share recomendations on The Bull. I wonder if Mr Smith ever had AUT as a buy?

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

Aurora Oil & Gas (AUT)

The US oil and gas shale sector has proved to be a company maker for AUT. The share price has skyrocketed in the past 18 months as market capitalisation approaches $1.3 billion. Today’s share price implies that ongoing development of its oil and gas fields will progress perfectly – that is there’s no unforeseen issues. For this reason, we suggest investors take profits.


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

Assasin said:


> Just read this, from Carey Smith from Alto Capital regarding share recomendations on The Bull. I wonder if Mr Smith ever had AUT as a buy?
> 
> SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
> 
> ...




Shes obviously not the sharpest tool in the shed then. 

Is their numbers that she has supporting these comments?? That comment is so vauge and not really worth acknowledging IMO if that is all she can come up with.

Ive done the numbers, as well as many people here and we can all see this is only going one way. Providing the econemy can stay as it is, if it faulters then where all doomed.

Just sounds like an un-subatansiated down ramp by a punter lol

All IMO DYOR


----------



## Buckfont (7 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Shes obviously not the sharpest tool in the shed then.
> 
> Is their numbers that she has supporting these comments?? That comment is so vauge and not really worth acknowledging IMO if that is all she can come up with.
> 
> ...




All IMO DYOR 

Trader8888, Carey Smith from Alto Capital, is actually a bloke!!!


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

Ok no worries lol, Does it matter


----------



## Buckfont (7 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Ok no worries lol, Does it matter




Nope just setting the record straight


----------



## Assasin (7 February 2011)

Here's the link, his buy recomendations are doozies also. 
Hey Trader, have a look at the pic, wouldn't like to kiss her.


http://thebull.com.au/articles/a/17439-18-share-tips---7-february-2011.html


----------



## donteatme (7 February 2011)

He's probably just looking at the Stoxline analysis of a strong sell.

Yet, it's gone up today and the last time there was a strong sell recommendation on Stoxline, it was at around 2.55 if I recall correctly, just before it boomed.


----------



## adobee (7 February 2011)

If he has a SELL recommendation on it now for those reasons its not that unreasonable it would be very dependent on what price he had this AUT & LYC as a BUY ..  ??


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

adobee said:


> If he has a SELL recommendation on it now for those reasons its not that unreasonable it would be very dependent on what price he had this AUT & LYC as a BUY ..  ??




I think if you decided to sell on that kind of recommendation  you have to be someone how does'nt know the stock very well, or someone who cant think for themself.

Condog has mentioned that he has bombarded news papers and anylysts about AUT when it was much lower than this, and just now we are seeing them mention AUT when most of the gains have been made. I think people cant believe AUT has gone up so much, and now they see it at 1.2 billion MC and they think it must be overvalued. But when you do the sums it opens your eyes to why AUT has a MC of 1.2 billion and why canadian firms are buying at this price and putting high valuation's on AUT.

He quotes "The share price has skyrocketed in the past 18 months as market capitalisation approaches $1.3 billion. Today’s share price implies that ongoing development of its oil and gas fields will progress perfectly – that is there’s no unforeseen issues. For this reason, we suggest investors take profits. "

Firstly i dont think AUT has been priced to progress perfectly with its development, with a low PE ratio of 14 and $14 per BOE in the ground. These figures are very low compared to AUT's peers. On that note AUT is actually beating the reserve report estimates for declines and condensate ratio. Not to mention the reserves report that will be out this month and TSX listing.

Any new comers take a look at condogs valuations and thoughts, best ive seen on a forum and for that matter smashes most brokers as well.

IMO, DYOR. I guess im not the uni graduate though lol


----------



## condog (7 February 2011)

One must watch who they listne to, and always try to analyse how many cans short of a six pack they are. 

Im not implying she is 7 cans short, but certainly that comment, from a supposed educated broker / advisor, says to me , run a mile, put your fingers in your ears and go buy 7 cans to make your 6 pack.


----------



## adobee (7 February 2011)

adobee said:


> If he has a SELL recommendation on it now for those reasons its not that unreasonable it would be very dependent on what price he had this AUT & LYC as a BUY ..  ??




Im not saying its a buy or sell .. I am asking what price he had it as a Buy if he now has it as a sell ???????


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

adobee said:


> Im not saying its a buy or sell .. I am asking what price he had it as a Buy if he now has it as a sell ???????




Not sure, never heard of him or seen him put valuations on AUT.


----------



## buffalo66 (7 February 2011)

Assasin said:


> Just read this, from Carey Smith from Alto Capital regarding share recomendations on The Bull. I wonder if Mr Smith ever had AUT as a buy?
> 
> SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
> 
> ...





Last 4 Sell recommendations by Mr Smith on the bull, & sp +/-% change up to today:

29th November 2010 
BBG:  -4%
RIV:  +18%

9th August 2010 
EQN: +29%
ILU:  +76%

That's pretty impressive...am an even happier holder of AUT now that Mr Smith has given his (lack of) endorsement...

 

DYOR


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

buffalo66 said:


> Last 4 Sell recommendations by Mr Smith on the bull, & sp +/-% change up to today:
> 
> 29th November 2010
> BBG:  -4%
> ...




HAHA i had better figures than those in my first year of trading and i was 16 at the time lol. These guys call them selves advisors. 

The big difference is we trade for a living (so we put everything into our research) they just do it as a job - big difference when its ur own money not someone elses.


----------



## condog (7 February 2011)

Thebloke has a hold on QBE, that says enough for me to know his credentials. 1. Insurance and airlines are about the riskiest companies you can get. 

Its had a long term declining ROE and current ROE of approximately 15%. Why on earth would you hold something that risky, with a potential return on equity of 15%. 

Some fools just dont get it. A supposed bluechip with only 20% franking. 

Yeh smart analyst this fella is.

Id prefer advice from my communist grandmother.

Trader your spot on and thats why to cover my ass, i always say seek advice from a "good " adviser. Im yet to find one, but im sure theres a couple out there somewhere. Euroz have been pretty spot on so far.


----------



## Assasin (7 February 2011)

Still like to see Trader plant a big one on her.:remybussi

Back on topic, Aut had a great day defying the nay sayers. Thought there might have been an oportunity coming for a bit of a top up but no, everytime you try and outsmart AUT it comes back and smacks you.
Anyone taking up the margin loans on offer for AUT?
Cheers.


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

Assasin said:


> Still like to see Trader plant a big one on her.:remybussi
> 
> Back on topic, Aut had a great day defying the nay sayers. Thought there might have been an oportunity coming for a bit of a top up but no, everytime you try and outsmart AUT it comes back and smacks you.
> Anyone taking up the margin loans on offer for AUT?
> Cheers.




HAHA thats gross

Ive been thinking about. Dont really know much about margin lending though. A question for people with more knowledge on this subject - Say i bought BHP with the money borrowed against AUT, or i bought SEA with the money borrowed against AUT. Would the invest in SEA command a higher interest rate because it is considered more risky??

Can margin calls come up, if the stock you used as security goes down - or the stock you invested the borrowed money with goes down - or both. 

The way i interperate it is, a margin call can can only happen if one or more of the securities you had bought, decreased in value past a certain point??


----------



## donteatme (7 February 2011)

buffalo66 said:


> Last 4 Sell recommendations by Mr Smith on the bull, & sp +/-% change up to today:
> 
> 29th November 2010
> BBG:  -4%
> ...




Hahahahha, this is gold!


----------



## Agentm (7 February 2011)

production from hilcorp for dec 2010

various wells in the sugarkane and a few wildcats


----------



## rockhound308 (7 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> production from hilcorp for dec 2010
> 
> various wells in the sugarkane and a few wildcats




Agent,
 Would you happen to know who are the participants in the Sugarkane AMI (if it still exists)?

 I know Burlington is the listed operator and assume TCE is still in there but  i see hilcorp??? gets a mention here and there as well

any thoughts?


----------



## Agentm (7 February 2011)

rockhound308 said:


> Agent,
> Would you happen to know who are the participants in the Sugarkane AMI (if it still exists)?
> 
> I know Burlington is the listed operator and assume TCE is still in there but  i see hilcorp??? gets a mention here and there as well
> ...




your testing me a little

sorts of things that come to mind, if your talking the original AMI is ADI - (now AWE) eka aut TCEI hilcorp.  then you have to add lucas energy in a jvp with hilcorp

outside of the initial AMI you have larger suagrkane acreages under hilcorp and lucas, hilcorp solo, conocophillips (you know them as burlington), petrohawk, pioneer, murphy.. then you have to consider many other operators.. 

its changing all the time..

not sure if it helps


----------



## bennywizard (7 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> HAHA thats gross
> 
> Ive been thinking about. Dont really know much about margin lending though. A question for people with more knowledge on this subject - Say i bought BHP with the money borrowed against AUT, or i bought SEA with the money borrowed against AUT. Would the invest in SEA command a higher interest rate because it is considered more risky??
> 
> ...






Assasin, yes I've taken it up 

Tradder, you can borrow money with a margin loan to buy any share and the interest rate is the same, currently 9.6% with Comsec.
If the share you use as security goes down then your borrowing capacity also goes down and if you have borrowed the maximum amount then you would have a margin call. It gets a little more complex as if you borrow to buy a share with a LVR on it then that share gets added to your asset pool. (adding to your borrowing capacity) Also if you have more than one share in your portfolio with a LVR then the LVR goes up. With AUT for example if you also hold 4 other stocks with an LVR then comsec upgrades it to 40% (so you could borrow $40,000 if you have $100,000 of AUT and four other eligible stocks. More if you bought more AUT for example.
It's never a good idea to borrow the full amount unless you have additional funds that could cover you in the case of a margin call.
Margin loans really leverage your position and can make or lose you a lot depending on what happens to the market. Be careful not to leverage yourself too highly!


----------



## trader8888 (7 February 2011)

bennywizard said:


> Assasin, yes I've taken it up
> 
> Tradder, you can borrow money with a margin loan to buy any share and the interest rate is the same, currently 9.6% with Comsec.
> If the share you use as security goes down then your borrowing capacity also goes down and if you have borrowed the maximum amount then you would have a margin call. It gets a little more complex as if you borrow to buy a share with a LVR on it then that share gets added to your asset pool. (adding to your borrowing capacity) Also if you have more than one share in your portfolio with a LVR then the LVR goes up. With AUT for example if you also hold 4 other stocks with an LVR then comsec upgrades it to 40% (so you could borrow $40,000 if you have $100,000 of AUT and four other eligible stocks. More if you bought more AUT for example.
> ...




Ok Cheers

So if i only own one stock with LVR - AUT and the stock was worth $100,000 then the max i can borrow is $35,000. Do other stocks without LVR count? SEA for example. 

Say for example i bought LYC with the borrowed funds at $2.00 and LYC fell to $1 how much would the margin call be?

Pretty risky business this, you have double exposure for the chance of having to come up with funds. Plus you get slugged %9.6 each month. Not to mention if the company you invested the borrowed money in plumeted they would take your AUT shares.

Big risk, big money to be made though.


----------



## poverty (8 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Ok Cheers
> 
> So if i only own one stock with LVR - AUT and the stock was worth $100,000 then the max i can borrow is $35,000. Do other stocks without LVR count? SEA for example.




You can use your borrowings to buy any stock you want, but one without an LVR won't count as security.



> Say for example i bought LYC with the borrowed funds at $2.00 and LYC fell to $1 how much would the margin call be?




If you had 100K of AUT and 35K of LYC and LYC dropped to $1 you wouldn't even be in buffer let alone risking a margin call.  This is because LYC itself is worth a further 35% LVR allowing you to borrow even more, but you only borrowed 35% against AUT, so weren't fully geared up 



> Pretty risky business this, you have double exposure for the chance of having to come up with funds. Plus you get slugged %9.6 each month. Not to mention if the company you invested the borrowed money in plumeted they would take your AUT shares.




Bear in mind that you do get to claim the 9.6% interest as a tax deduction.  Also if you buy a company with no LVR it doesn't matter if that share goes up or down, as its not counting as security anyway.


----------



## condog (8 February 2011)

Its generally far safer to do it with an equity loan against your house. That way you dont get margin calls. The interest rate is comparrable, and repayments occur at times of your choice. If you leave say $10,000 balance in the loan you will always have roughly 12 months worth of interest payments as a buffer. 

When the bank asks the purpose of the loan dont say its for shares or investment, as they may slug extra interest, and they make you sign a commercial loan application which has far less safety measures for you. Id tell them its for a pool, new car and holiday, and just for life style purposes and convienience. 

If you dont have enough equity in the house then this option is not available.  

Id caution people using margin loans, unless your a very experienced investor and are utilising stop losses. Its not for the faint hearted when the market moves suddenly. 

as someone said high risk = high reward / loss. 

AUt finished off nicely yesterday, there was plenty of buyer support with over 4Million which is a big day for AUT. Wouldnt supprise me if in a week or two we get another significant buyer disclosure.


----------



## condog (8 February 2011)

Well what do you know Harbour advisors the Canadian mob where buying yesterday and raised thier stake to 6.2%, purchasing 5million shares, since thier last purchase. 

Thats a huge vote of confidence and imo sign of things to come when we hit the TSX.


----------



## prgudula (8 February 2011)

Condog,

spot on. 

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?rpc=66&symbol=AUT.AX&timestamp=20110202214700

Key Developments: Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd (AUT.AX)

Research a stock:
Latest Key Developments
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited Announces Holding Interest Of Harbour Advisors
Wednesday, 2 Feb 2011 04:47pm EST 

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited announced that Harbour Advisors has an interest of 403,437,000 ordinary shares, which represents 5.1% of voting power in the Company.


----------



## AngusSmart (8 February 2011)

Assasin said:


> Still like to see Trader plant a big one on her.:remybussi
> 
> Back on topic, Aut had a great day defying the nay sayers. Thought there might have been an oportunity coming for a bit of a top up but no, everytime you try and outsmart AUT it comes back and smacks you.
> Anyone taking up the margin loans on offer for AUT?
> Cheers.




haha story of my life, i sold out ages ago  and my only chance now is thru cfd's or i guess margin loans same deal yeah..

i sold out at $3 the other day.. and was hoping for a pull back and a bit of a topup.. but that canadian buyer may be the cause of pushing things up again..


----------



## AngusSmart (8 February 2011)

prgudula said:


> Condog,
> 
> spot on.
> 
> ...




that 400,437,000 isnt the correct number. go back thru their announcements..

4.2 mil is around 1.1% in aut.. they now hold 6.2%..  harbour advisors are closer to 25,000,000 sorry for the rough figures but i made the mistake the other day thinking 403,437,000 was 5.1% which it would be 100%


----------



## donteatme (8 February 2011)

The man must feel like an idiot. Reached a new 52 week high after his sell recommendation. Good work


----------



## geelongfan (8 February 2011)

ugh.. i've been watching this stock as a newbie investor for a few weeks now. my commsec account finally opened up today but it seems like a bad idea to buy at a 52 week high.. bad timing i guess


----------



## Magic Man (8 February 2011)

Well well well.. Aut is back baby. after a slight pull back i took the oppurtunity to top up again and lucky i did. Note the buyers are definately back in to this one. Great work guys.


----------



## condog (8 February 2011)

geelongfan, i think you might regret those words, just like everyone whos sold along the way hoping to buy on pullbacks, that rarely eventuate in sufficient longevity or depth to make money on. 

There are a lot of tailwinds for this stock about to unfold.

Todays trade was again very high, id suggest we will get another significant notice tommorrow or in the next few days, particularly late afternoon.

Im now hoping its no longer Harbour advisors, as i think they are beginning to hold a parcel we need to begin to worry about. To easy to launch TO action once your up around 10%. Touch wood the stewarts and JP own enough to control any TO action.

The buy sell volumes have once again tipped in favour of sellers. 3:1, hopefully we will now see our next level of resistance established in the teens or 20's.


----------



## bennywizard (8 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> ugh.. i've been watching this stock as a newbie investor for a few weeks now. my commsec account finally opened up today but it seems like a bad idea to buy at a 52 week high.. bad timing i guess




With a good stock it doesn't work like that IMO. A good stock will keep going up so today's 52 week high could look like a bargain in a few weeks or months time. Sometimes you just need to jump in, maybe not with all your spare cash. If they do drop a little then you have another buying opportunity, if they go up quickly then at least you're in at some level. As condog and others have said, a lot of people have been left behind waiting for a pull back on this stock only to find it reach new highs before they bought.
It appears that there are at least 2 large companies now accumulating this stock so any time the price dips a little they will no doubt be topping up as well.


----------



## poverty (8 February 2011)

I agree with the last 2 posters.  Happy I got in at 2.94, no point worrying now about how I should've got in earlier at whatever other price.


----------



## geelongfan (8 February 2011)

ok guys.. thanks for the comments..

anyway, remember i'm a complete noob (but i'm learning)

what is making the share price of AUT go so crazy lately? is it because it has been riding on the back of record profits (i haven't been able to find anything backing this)? or is it simply its potential to get a crazy amount of oil from current or future wells thanks to sound management and adept employees? if it is to do with a potential takeover, why would that be a bad thing? 

my bad for noobing it up in here


----------



## Sharejon (8 February 2011)

Geelongfan,

I highly urge you to read AUT's latest investor presentations/quarterly report located on the asx.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=aut&timeframe=D&period=M

AUT isn't currently making profits, but is doing a tremendous job which will see AUT receiving profit's soon. The company plans on listing on the Canadian stock exchange in the next few months and I believe is expecting a new oil and gas reserves report by the end of this month.

Additionally, between mid-December and the present times, alot of the price movement has been due to the acquisition of higher working interests in producing acreages in their focus area of the Eagleford Shale.
Really, alot of the vital information is contained in the two documents I mentioned in my first sentence.


----------



## easylikesunday (8 February 2011)

Amazing to think the investors lucky enough to grab shares in the CR recently are about to double their money!

In what, 2 months? 

I haven't even held for 3 months and Im sitting on 108% 

Still got a long ride until my CGT date arrives...


----------



## condog (8 February 2011)

The story in brief for all noobs

AUT has most of the best well results in the entire EFS so far. 
ITs been experimenting with different techniques and has dramatically improve declines
It owes hilcorp money for wells hilcorp paid up front for and we pay on a cost recovery basis
As such on the most recent quarterly cash flow is not shown as its being repayed to hilcorp. 
Euroz project 5000boepd by end of 2011 and they value it at $3.60
In late feb it will be listed on the Toronto SX, which should increase sp
In late feb a new reserves report is due.
Theres then the possibility (some would say likelihood) that well spacing can be reduced from 80acres to perhaps as low as 40, in effect possibly doubling EUR's
They recently increased acerage by 50% which has had a terrific effect on sp, due to it effectively raising reserves by 50%, and they are looking for similar acqusitions going forward. 
The accellerated the original 2010 drilling from 10 to 20 wells 
They now accellerated the 2011 program to 60 wells and will have 4 wells on site about nowish, with a further 1-2 wells in coming weeks or months, which will drmatically accellerate results. Also bringing cash flow forward. 
Hence theres a lot of expectation amongst this forum that late feb early march will see significant price action.


----------



## Assasin (8 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> ok guys.. thanks for the comments..
> 
> anyway, remember i'm a complete noob (but i'm learning)
> 
> ...




From one Geelong fan to another, can I advise that you alocate a few hours and go back to about page 30 of this thread and you will learn more about AUT than anything else. The company presentations are great but sometimes over the heads of the less experienced and this thread makes things easier to understand. Also, don't under-estimate the experience of the posters on this thread, they are right at the top of the game.
 Good luck.

Hey Trader, have you kissed and made up with Mr Smith yet. He'd probably be feeling a little down in the dumps tonight.:


----------



## trader8888 (8 February 2011)

Assasin said:


> From one Geelong fan to another, can I advise that you alocate a few hours and go back to about page 30 of this thread and you will learn more about AUT than anything else. The company presentations are great but sometimes over the heads of the less experienced and this thread makes things easier to understand. Also, don't under-estimate the experience of the posters on this thread, they are right at the top of the game.
> Good luck.
> 
> Hey Trader, have you kissed and made up with Mr Smith yet. He'd probably be feeling a little down in the dumps tonight.:




HAHA no way. but i am liking his dis-approval of AUT, its seems to be working wonders since he posted his view. 

Lol he had a SELL on ILU on AUG 9 2010 they are now up %76 since then. AUT might have crack at that record lol. Possible in 6 months, especially if we get another aquistion. 

We might have to help the poor bloke out and send him a few tips. Another doozy was his hold recommendation on QBE 

On another note OIL getting hammered ATM, due to egypt tension falling, and investories bulging. API is reporting tonight on their estimate for weekly oil inventories, then the official EIA report out wednesday night.


----------



## Kremmen (8 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> The man must feel like an idiot. Reached a new 52 week high after his sell recommendation. Good work




At least one Euroz advisor has been suggesting very recently that clients take profits. ... Talk about playing both sides!



geelongfan said:


> what is making the share price of AUT go so crazy lately?




In addition to what others have said, you might like to have a look at the ADI thread to see where things have come from. Take yourself back to the good old days of this time last year, when ADI was 20c and AUT was 38c. Much has changed, and not just stock prices.


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

Pioneer added 12% to its reserves in 2010, El Paso added 22%. We are expecting i believe around 15% minimum and up to 25% im estimating. Euroz are estimating a hell of a lot higher then this.  It could go higher if they factor in better then expected declines. We know from the last Euroz report that its certainly tracking well ahead of Euroz expectations.

$3.60 * 1.15 = $4.14

$3.60 * 1.25 = $4.50

On a purely % increase basis. It will be interesting to see what Euroz new valuation will be in early march. I think anyone that knows the play will be anticipating a decent figure.

Then later, perhaps in 6-12 months as they reduce well spacing they will possibly add another 25% if they go to 60 acre spacing, more if they go toward 50 or 40 acre well spacing. The turnbulls communicating with each other reminds us 40 acres would be risky, but 60 acres youd think is achievable. 

Ad another 25% to $4.14 and $4.50 


4.14 * 1.25 = $5.18
4.50 * 1.25 = $5.60

Then theres potential for oil and gas price increases as well. Say a 10% increase and we could be  looking at potentially $6 plus in the next 12-18 months as a valuation

And that would be still carrying the 15% risk factor, that euroz has applied that we are well ahead of. If they chose to 1/2 that risk factor we could be talking a valuation of $6.40 plus. 

This is all speculation, but it highlights to me why Canadians and other new players who have done thier research still see incredible value in AUT.

They dont see a 10 bagger, but they see imo some very derisked % growth.


----------



## Timpoo (9 February 2011)

Doesn't look like the drop in oil price has had much of a dampener effect on AUT's SP at open...


----------



## Sdajii (9 February 2011)

Timpoo said:


> Doesn't look like the drop in oil price has had much of a dampener effect on AUT's SP at open...




It wasn't long ago that anything over $80 would have been thought of as high, and everyone knew that the recent prices just over $90 were only due to the fun and games in Egypt, and that it was probably fairly baseless and temporary. Oil is still over $85 per barrel, which is still bloody high (just walk down the street in your area and ask the first few people you see what they think of petrol prices!  ).

The figures Euroz, AUT themselves, etc etc use for their predictions put oil at conservative levels, lower than the $85-92 range we've seen recently. If oil does sit there for a prolonged period of time and it becomes the new norm we might start seeing it more heavily reflected in valuations and the share price. 

In the short term, the spikes in oil prices over $85-90 give us an opportunity to rapidly pay off Hillcorp etc, or put a bit of quick cash in the bank, but I don't think it's generally seen as a likely ongoing benefit to the company. I'm sure many investors are quietly hoping for $90-$120 oil to be the new norm though. If that happened, companies like AUT would get a healthy rerating.


On a different note, how cool is it to see AUT's price yesterday and today, smashing out two new 52 week highs immediately after the bearish calls from Euroz and Mr Kissy Smith! I chuckled when I saw the results of his last few sell calls, and it seems even funnier now!   

Time for bananas?


----------



## shanti (9 February 2011)

I noticed large gains this morning before open, must be the Canadian co. Still their order has to go through (ASX ?) so why massive price change before 10am?


----------



## geelongfan (9 February 2011)

so after reading through a few reports from AUT and a good slog of this forum topic the noob investor (me) purchased some AUT stocks for $3.22 this morning (my first shares!). I put in only what I can afford to lose. But here's hoping that doesn't happen. I'm going to re-assess the situation after announcements come late feb and early march. Now I shall get back to reading 'the intelligent investor'!

Also, looks like todays trade will again be quite high..


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

Yeh guys todays volume is very significant. ITs really p ing me off actually, cause if its still Harbour Advisors buying im starting to get very concerned about thier motives. 

Should definitely be an announcment this arvo or in the morning, that volume is rediculously large. 

Whats more no they are buying so obviously, im wondering why anyone in thier right mind would sell. If sellers hold tight, they are gunna see a price spike on this demand.


----------



## geelongfan (9 February 2011)

condog said:


> Yeh guys todays volume is very significant. ITs really p ing me off actually, cause if its still Harbour Advisors buying im starting to get very concerned about thier motives.
> 
> Should definitely be an announcment this arvo or in the morning, that volume is rediculously large.
> 
> Whats more no they are buying so obviously, im wondering why anyone in thier right mind would sell. If sellers hold tight, they are gunna see a price spike on this demand.




If it is harbour advisors, why is it a bad thing? Why are potential take-over bids a horrible thing to see?


----------



## Magic Man (9 February 2011)

Condog.. if AUT was taklen over by another company and say they offered $5.00 a share,... would that be a really bad thing?? Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??


----------



## Mister Mark (9 February 2011)

I for one would hate to see a sucessful takeover, i want to see this go much higher and reach its full potential


----------



## geelongfan (9 February 2011)

Mister Mark said:


> I for one would hate to see a sucessful takeover, i want to see this go much higher and reach its full potential




if a takeover occurred though what's to say the stock wont meet its full potential (surely that's what the takeover company would envision)?


----------



## philly (9 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> If it is harbour advisors, why is it a bad thing? Why are potential take-over bids a horrible thing to see?






Magic Man said:


> Condog.. if AUT was taklen over by another company and say they offered $5.00 a share,... would that be a really bad thing?? Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??




A T/O can be either  a good or bad thing depending on what you assess is the true value of the share.
If I thought that by the end of the year AUT will be valued at $6 why would I accept a bid of $5 now? I would only give up that potential $1 if I could invest it elsewhere and achieve a greater return.  Don't worry anyone making a T/O is going to have  a good idea about the true value of the share and then offer you as little as possible to get it.

I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today 

I hold and I will decide when and at what price I will sell, not that that is something I'm currently thinking about 

Especially since this little beauty is achieving daily highs


----------



## stevensaul (9 February 2011)

142 buyers for 976,001 units  56 sellers for 228,915 units   


Looking very healthy!


----------



## geelongfan (9 February 2011)

huge volume going just before close today...


----------



## Kremmen (9 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??




Absolutely. I'd love it. (But I am biased: today is the anniversary of my first AUT investment.)



philly said:


> If I thought that by the end of the year AUT will be valued at $6 why would I accept a bid of $5 now? I would only give up that potential $1 if I could invest it elsewhere and achieve a greater return.




Which should certainly be possible, given the number of other shale oil opportunities.



> I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today




But didn't you invest that money in AUT, or at least EKA?


----------



## jancha (9 February 2011)

I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today 

Philly if ADI was taken over by AWE why hasn't it jumped in value like AUT?


----------



## buffalo66 (9 February 2011)

The canadian listing, imo, has mostly pluses than minuses. +, as canadian funds buy into the stock which (as proven today) prices will get driven up & up. -, with big stakes comes more large short term action & ramp/dump. Agree a takeover would be tough to swallow after ADI...but on the plus I reckon would start a bidding war..

Bit more banter on Mr _kissy_ Smith...
Our kissable rogue had a BUY reccomendation on HC for the stock DOW 29th November. After that the stock slid by more than 20%...not, I admit, the biggest crime but...wait for it..he then puts _another_ buy recc on DOW for the 7th Feb with the simple reccomendation it was over sold the first time! This time he gets it right with a rebound...so if you bought in on the 29th Nov you'd only be 14% down! The guy is a pure gambling maniac genius. He (and others like him) should clearly have their own name & shame thread eh.

I'm a loving it very happy long term holder of both AUT & SEA ....sdajii -might well be time for some _mighty expensive_ bananas after today! 



DYOR


----------



## trader8888 (9 February 2011)

This vloume is really worrying me. Would hate a T/O at the moment. I think having listing on TSX might make it a little harder to T/O AUT though, anyone agree??

I just gave AUT a ring and asked to talk to Jon or anyone else from managment, but they were all in texes at the moment, must be the reserves report.


----------



## trader8888 (9 February 2011)

Got this off someone over at SSN

Only means one thing for AUT 

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

Share510 John Vidal, environment editor guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 February 2011 22.00 GMT Article history 
Saudi oil refinery. WikiLeaks cables suggest the amount of oil that can be retrieved has been overestimated. Photograph: George Steinmetz/Corbis

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels nearly 40%.

The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.


----------



## bennywizard (9 February 2011)

..."The turnbulls communicating with each other reminds us 40 acres would be risky, but 60 acres youd think is achievable"

Hey Condog,  Are you saying there is information available that shows a production or pressure relationship between the wells at 80 acres? Do you know if any operators in the region have drilled closer than 80 acres successfully?

Go AUT! Can't wait for the end of this month's announcements


----------



## bennywizard (9 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> This vloume is really worrying me. Would hate a T/O at the moment. I think having listing on TSX might make it a little harder to T/O AUT though, anyone agree??
> 
> I just gave AUT a ring and asked to talk to Jon or anyone else from managment, but they were all in texes at the moment, must be the reserves report.




I hope they are negotiating a new acquisition


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Condog.. if AUT was taklen over by another company and say they offered $5.00 a share,... would that be a really bad thing?? Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??




Well im guessing those who paid 30%, 38% or 45% of thier capital gain would be spewwing. 

Id be spewing cause they offer us a 51% premium which is $5.00 and they get our company in a matter of weeks, when realistically its likely to give us 100% in 12 months. Weve done the resesarch , weve taken the risk, weve backed the company thru its most difficult time and these pr###s get it for a tiny premium in an instant. 

Just ask the ADI ex holders ho happy they are about being bought out. Most where or are livid.


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Got this off someone over at SSN
> 
> Only means one thing for AUT
> 
> ...




Yes most would know im a firm advocate of peak oil. This is the exact reason im a believer, overstated reserves and in some instances reserves that have not changed for over 10 years, yet no new significant finds. Many imo are fudging the books, because it allows them a greater share of the export pie in the OPEC equations.


----------



## philly (9 February 2011)

Kremmen said:


> But didn't you invest that money in AUT, or at least EKA?




Hey Kremmen, yes I topped up on AUT and took my wife on a short holiday to the Sunshine Coast. So everyone was . I don't have any regrets its just that I didn't like being bullied into selling



jancha said:


> Philly if ADI was taken over by AWE why hasn't it jumped in value like AUT?




Jancha, both ADI & AUT were entirely focused on the EFS whereas AWE has fingers in many pies so its SP is balanced out over good and bad investments / results.
Also AUT'S interest in the EFS is much larger than ADI / AWE.
If ADI was still around today I would guess that its SP would be closer to EKA than AUT

I think that in AUT we have a very savvy board with a clear direction as to where they want to go and now that more wells are being drilled every month  and the EFS is pretty much de-risked they have a licence to print money for all of us. Indeed the AUT story thus far is quite unbelievable a year ago you could have picked up shares for about 40cents. Others may know of other shares that have performed this well but for me this is one that in retirement I can tell my grandchildren all about


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

bennywizard said:


> ..."The turnbulls communicating with each other reminds us 40 acres would be risky, but 60 acres youd think is achievable"
> 
> Hey Condog,  Are you saying there is information available that shows a production or pressure relationship between the wells at 80 acres? Do you know if any operators in the region have drilled closer than 80 acres successfully?
> 
> Go AUT! Can't wait for the end of this month's announcements




Two of the turnbulls communicated, not sure of the exact spacing, but obviously too close. Currently i think 80 acres is the NSAI norm adopted and used. Eventually hilcorp willl drill a few closer ones and if successfull then the NSAI may increase the reserves in proportion to the spacing. 

Right now its speculative, but i think most people generally accept 60 acres is achivable and 50 acres is possible. 40 acres imo is possible, but also may have issues. If i where a betting man id take the odds on 60 acres easy and 50 acres realistically. Thats imo still a very significant increase in reserves.


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

philly said:


> I think that in AUT we have a very savvy board with a clear direction as to where they want to go and now that more wells are being drilled every month  and the EFS is pretty much de-risked they have a licence to print money for all of us. Indeed the AUT story thus far is quite unbelievable a year ago you could have picked up shares for about 40cents. Others may know of other shares that have performed this well but for me this is one that in retirement I can tell my grandchildren all about




SEA has been a similar performer, 10c a year ago and $1 today. Very similar story up in the Bakken and Niorabira shales. Very high quality mgt. I dont hold.

TXN scares me at present, but watch it closely, it could be the next one. In the next few weeks it will have 60 day declines and that will be very significant. If the 30 to 60 decline is good lots imo will buy. If its poor, look out.

Following that it will develop its second EFS horizontal and that will be watched closely as to whether its acerage is on early signs, crap or fantastic. Either way will have a huge effect imo on sp.


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

jancha said:


> I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today
> 
> Philly if ADI was taken over by AWE why hasn't it jumped in value like AUT?




Because AWE is diluted by much poorer quality acerage and its ADI component is only one part of the company.


----------



## condog (9 February 2011)

Somebody let Proga know that if a TO does eventuate its something holders need to be mentally prepared for if they have any chance of holding it at bay. It takes a colaborative effort from all shareholders to not sell, possibly buy and hold tight against the tide of very short sighted sellers.


----------



## easylikesunday (9 February 2011)

condog said:


> Well im guessing those who paid 30%, 38% or 45% of thier capital gain would be spewwing.
> 
> Id be spewing cause they offer us a 51% premium which is $5.00 and they get our company in a matter of weeks, when realistically its likely to give us 100% in 12 months. Weve done the resesarch , weve taken the risk, weve backed the company thru its most difficult time and these pr###s get it for a tiny premium in an instant.
> 
> Just ask the ADI ex holders ho happy they are about being bought out. Most where or are livid.




Im in the same boat as the rest of the AUT holders Condog but at the end of the day isn't this just a business deal? 

Obviously this company is going places, so why wouldn't the big fish try and grab it for a tiny premium? They are after the profits too.

I think a few here would buy AUT too if they had a couple of billion in the bank account :

Its all about the cash at the end of the day. Thats what we are invested in AUT for.


----------



## shanti (9 February 2011)

(But I am biased: today is the anniversary of my first AUT investment.)

Hi Kremmen, I checked after reading your post and realised today is the anniversary of my first AUT investment as well - only bought 1K that day - it was my very first 
stock market investment ever, followed by 1K in EKA, luckilly later I took part in SPP and topped up. It all went like a dream from there. Being such a newbie I still can't believe my luck


----------



## majorca (10 February 2011)

condog said:


> Two of the turnbulls communicated, not sure of the exact spacing, but obviously too close. Currently i think 80 acres is the NSAI norm adopted and used. Eventually hilcorp willl drill a few closer ones and if successfull then the NSAI may increase the reserves in proportion to the spacing.
> 
> Right now its speculative, but i think most people generally accept 60 acres is achivable and 50 acres is possible. 40 acres imo is possible, but also may have issues. If i where a betting man id take the odds on 60 acres easy and 50 acres realistically. Thats imo still a very significant increase in reserves.



Condog,
(If you know the answer to clarify for me please) Just a question regarding the "communication" does that actually mean that the frac fluids reach the other wells or?


----------



## geelongfan (10 February 2011)

AUT took a swift kick in the gonads today (5.7% drop).. most jr explorers and some mid tiers took a hit also today


----------



## donteatme (10 February 2011)

Yesterday was a spectacular day for AUT, I can't find anything that would warrant such an increase. The close today is still a little bit higher than the close on Tuesday, so I still see it as progress


----------



## geelongfan (10 February 2011)

indeed. i guess we will all know where we sit after the announcements in a few weeks


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> Yesterday was a spectacular day for AUT, I can't find anything that would warrant such an increase. The close today is still a little bit higher than the close on Tuesday, so I still see it as progress




Greedy buyer will always attract nervous sellers. I see it from a week by week development. Today was expected... if it didn't happen it would have been very unusual.


----------



## Sdajii (10 February 2011)

Condog (or anyone else): I'd also like to know exactly what is meant by the close well 'communicating'. Does this mean the wells were noticeably affected in some practical way, or is it just some subsonic testing equipment or something which shows a reading? Or something totally different?

I really hope we get a finer well spacing, it would really increase our reserves dramatically. 80 to 60 acres would be the equivalent of increasing our total acreage by 33%, wouldn't it? With no extra land expenses? 40 acre spacing would increase our effective land by 100%? Unlikely, I know.

Maybe we got a kick in the nuts today, but that's okay, we earned a cup yesterday. Today's kick knocked the cup off though, so if we get kicked in the nuts again tomorrow it's actually going to hurt! :

I we get a nice reserves upgrade and finer well spacing, gee, it's going to be nice to holding! Not that it isn't already!


----------



## majorca (10 February 2011)

Sdajii,
       I was undertsanding it as cross contamination ie either the fracturing ? from fluids? or it affects the pressure? I dont really know so that was why I was asking the heir apparent or possibly the horses head in this instance? some of us don't know as much so generally are busy reading and following links posted. Being an ex Adi investor though and the only thing I have ever got right in that respect was topping up on them at 4.8c you would think something would have worn off but no it appear pure fluke. I would be interested in a slow answer I am going to take a while to absorb it!


----------



## condog (10 February 2011)

Communication between wells means the fracs, create spaces in the geology that allow the pressures in one well to affect the pressures in anither well. 

IF you can imageine it like two bottles of coke shaken up. ideally you take the cap of one and get it to flow oil/condensate for years. You take the lid of the other and get it to do the same.

But when communication occurs its like having a hose running between the two bottles. So when you cap the second one youve already lost pressure as when you fracced the pressure was lost to the other well.

It can effecteively reduce the EUR( estimated ultimate recovery) per well. Especially int he case of wells containing fluids, as we rely on high pressures to lift the fluids to the surface.

hope that helps


----------



## mir (10 February 2011)

this may help with the well spacing debate & well 'communicating' issue, for what it's worth i was told yesterday (by people that know) they believe the well spacing will end up much tighter than 40 acres per well (possibly 20 to 30 acres) & are talking multiples of our reserves, also due to the reduced declines. so i don't see the 'communicating' being a problem .


----------



## condog (10 February 2011)

mir said:


> this may help with the well spacing debate & well 'communicating' issue, for what it's worth i was told yesterday (by people that know) they believe the well spacing will end up much tighter than 40 acres per well (possibly 20 to 30 acres) & are talking multiples of our reserves, also due to the reduced declines. so i don't see the 'communicating' being a problem .




There is no doubt thats possible, but till they try it, imo we really dont know. The geology of every single well will be different and whilst some areas might allow 20 acre spacing others might be 40 or 50. They really wont know imo till they trial it. I think most think 40 acres is possible, but imo in some areas that will be fine in others it could be an issue. Its unlikely 50-60 will cause any problems imo. But thats speculation.


----------



## WRONG'UN (10 February 2011)

Let's try to get another handle on this.
The horizontal legs of these wells are about 1 mile long, that's 1760 yards.
There are 4840 square yards in an acre.
So, for wells at 80 acre spacings, the distance between the horizontal legs must be 80 x 4840 / 1760 = 220 yards.
This means that for adjacent wells to "communicate", the influence zones of the fracking will have to extend 110 yards out from each well. And at 40 acre spacings, the zones would have to extend 55 yards out. Is this likely? Well, as already stated, we won't know until somebody tries it, and every well is different anyway. At about $7m per well, I'd say they won't be trying it until they are raking in the money from the 80 acre wells.


----------



## Sdajii (10 February 2011)

Condog: I was sure that was the principle behind well spacing, but I wondered exactly what the 'communication' was. Was there a measurable drop in pressure/flow rats in the first well attributable to the second?


----------



## condog (11 February 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Condog: I was sure that was the principle behind well spacing, but I wondered exactly what the 'communication' was. Was there a measurable drop in pressure/flow rats in the first well attributable to the second?




When they tapped that turnbull, they would have noted an immediate change in pressure and flows on the other well. Not ideal, as it not onlly reduces EUR's it makes it immensly harder to control well head pressure and thus also condensate to gas ratios. 

Changing the choke on one effect the other, and the traditional choke change may have limited effect. Thye will learn how to manage it when its only on two wells, but you certainly dont want it happening accross the acerage. 

Your calculations above on width of the fracs is helpful in the understanding, and by calculating frac fluids we can attain an average frac width, but that doesnt mean they wont communicate, as some frace will go out in multiple directions and be relatively narrow, while others may create long fissures in the surrounding rock. ie the Turnbull situation. 

IMO we can probably presume well spacing of 50-60 will be easy, but 30 - 40 acre spacing may work in some areas and not others. 

Two things are for sure, they wont want wells communicating, and they will want minimum well spacing. So we can imo reasonably hope for a  50% increase in reserves from well spacing and wish for a 100% increase. *IMO it wont be effectual in this reserves statement, it will imo be in 12-36 months time. Right now thier focus will be on securing acerage, not reducing well spacing.*

They cannot afford to do it now, as they need to use all available capital and time to secure the acerages we have.


*So right now in our immediate short term we can look forward to:
1. A significant reserves upgrade
2. 4th Rig operating and accellerated news flow from new wells
3. TSX listing, and weve already seen how hungry some canadians will be for AUT*

*Then in medium term look forward to more acquisitions and thus upgrades in reserves of 10-30 odd %

In long term look forward to reduced well spacing and thus upgrades of 50% or more. *


----------



## Sdajii (11 February 2011)

Thank you, Condog, that answers my question and then some.

Your wealth of knowledge and willingness to share it are appreciated, as always.

What are your thoughts on Wednesday's big buying? I haven't seen a change in substantial holding notification, could it have been a new or smaller player? I hope so!


----------



## philly (11 February 2011)

I was reading that TXS might be merging with LSE [London Stock Exchange]. if this goes through is AUT then likely to list on the LSE as well as TSX? If so this would give AUT a lot more exposure and would potentially be good for the SP. Any thoughts?


----------



## Magic Man (11 February 2011)

Well another deflating day after a promising start to the week.. Any one know any reasons why we took such a hit. The sellers seem to be holding firm and buyers are up.. if she goes below 2.80 might get a bit nervous.


----------



## kyrondgm (11 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Well another deflating day after a promising start to the week.. Any one know any reasons why we took such a hit. The sellers seem to be holding firm and buyers are up.. if she goes below 2.80 might get a bit nervous.




reckon some investors might be thinking the run is over and taking profits...i even saw a stockbrokers report (cant remember who, hartleys?!) where they recommended to reduce AUT holdings. unfortunately after such a strong run, a couple bad days will get most people nervous! no way i am selling though, if this ship goes down then i am going with it!!! :


----------



## donteatme (11 February 2011)

My autosell got me out at $3.15 with a nice profit. Will be reentering again soon.


----------



## condog (11 February 2011)

Nothing to worry about lads, storm in a tea cup, its super healthy to have these pull backs, establishing resistance and ridding ourselves of nervous sellers as we go. 

Sadji
Time before LAst time Harbour advisors bought big, they went about 6 days before showingf thier cards. Admitedly, the first five they probably where not classified as significant. So ??, i really dont know, but it was huge volume. 

Plenty left in this thing lads so dont go fretting, and i wouldnt be out of it too long. Seen plenty of folks thinking they are ultra tricky trading a few cents here and there on this one. Most have been very regretful, they didnt just hold.


----------



## Mister Mark (11 February 2011)

Iv got lots already but took a punt and topped up on some today, see how it goes.


----------



## donteatme (11 February 2011)

My autosell triggered unintentionally, hope it can stay low for me to get back in. Wasn't really expecting a pullback, was hoping the buying would keep going.


----------



## WRONG'UN (11 February 2011)

Weekly Heikin Ashi candlestick chart - looks like an ideal "buy and hold" stock, if there is such a thing.







Getting back to the subject of well spacings, I presume the original 80 acre spacing was based on an assumed length for the horizontal portion. Whatever spacings are eventually adopted, the longer horizontal portions that Hilcorp are now achieving will mean fewer setups will be required to cover the total acreage. This of course improves the cost side of the operation. It is the "well cost per barrel of oil produced", rather than the absolute well cost (reported as about $7m, plus extra for longer horizontals), that is the really important number.


----------



## condog (11 February 2011)

WRONG'UN said:


> Weekly Heikin Ashi candlestick chart - looks like an ideal "buy and hold" stock, if there is such a thing.
> 
> 
> View attachment 41308
> ...




I hate complicating things, but to complicate it, there is a huge trade off at play. Yes while longer horizontals, may improve the actual EUr per well and per barrell cost, it actually detracts from the capital spend vs acerage securitisation. What i mean byy that is even a vertical well secures ccertain acerages, and right now its a race against time to secure acerages with a certain capital spend. We can go longer laterals, and get higher yeilds per well, but ultimately that will mean we need more capital and more time to secure our acerages. And while our acerages are so incredibly valuable its imo more likely they will stick to laterals around the 4500-5000ft range.

There are wells up in the Bakken Shale over 10000ft with 32 stages being done successfully, but imo the huge difference is that the acerages are not so tightly leased and hence the pressure to secure leases is not so high.  They can experiment a little more freely, without having thier acerages taken from them.


----------



## WRONG'UN (11 February 2011)

Hi Condog, yes, that does complicate it - thanks for the explanation.
..................................................................


----------



## philly (12 February 2011)

philly said:


> I was reading that TXS might be merging with LSE [London Stock Exchange]. if this goes through is AUT then likely to list on the LSE as well as TSX? If so this would give AUT a lot more exposure and would potentially be good for the SP. Any thoughts?




And this from today's Australian newspaper...

PREPARE for the stampede to Toronto. 
And, for those Australian companies already dual-listed there, the news of the proposed London Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange merger should be great news. They are where all the resources action is going to be. The TSX is already the world’s biggest resources trading floor, while close to a third of stocks on the LSE have some relation to mining or energy. Indeed, it seems that the Toronto exchange is keen on the deal particularly because London has been attracting a good deal of resources business away from Canada.

So why not solve the problem by merging? As the Montreal Gazette put it: “(The merged entity) will be the world's most important spot for allocating capital among mining, resource and energy companies.” However, the deal is yet to get approval by the Canadian government.

An idea of the weight of resources stocks in Toronto can be shown by Wednesday’s most active stocks: of the eight most active, four were mining companies. And, unlike the volatility in Australian resource stocks, the big moves are not among the penny ones but substantial companies. On Wednesday, the four biggest resource movers were Osisko Mining (closed at $C13.86), Teck Resources (closed at $C57.95), Eastern Platinum ($C1,65) and Ecanto Potash (C55c).

By contrast, the proposed ASX merger with the Singapore bourse will have no impact on the resources sector, other than to make it easier for Singapore investors to trade Australian mining and oil stocks. But if you want the majors, you can buy and sell them in London now; if you want the mid-tiers and some of the better emerging producers, they are already dual-listed in Toronto.

And, if you accept that the commodities bandwagon will keep on rolling, then the mining (and oil, to some extent) stocks will be the most sought-after. And this merger will see that action dominated by the northern hemisphere exchanges.

Moreover, there are signs that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is also looming as a resources stocks competitor for Australia (and Toronto, too). Rusal and Vale are now listed there.

On the regulatory front, both the federal and some provincial governments in Canada will have to approve the deal which will see the LSE owning 55 per cent of the new entity. But the big question is whether, after the political intervention that saved the bacon of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan from the predatory moves from BHP Billiton, will the Canadians dare turn it down - and risk further damage in terms of the country’s investment profile?

brombyr@theaustralian.com.au


----------



## Sharejon (12 February 2011)

Monday could represent a good buying opportunity after a short cool-off. I'm anxiously waiting for an update on the delays of Gilley/Direct Assets or our other 2 wells currently being drilled, more-so due to EKA than AUT however.


----------



## newry (12 February 2011)

Greetings Comrades.

G'day Condog (OGG) and others.

Terchnically the chart action does suggest some likely sideways action but nothing more yet imo. Key with aut chart at the moment is the elephant in the corner. By that I mean the huge consistant volume. Blowoff stocks suddenly lose volume and die, but not aut. There are pleny of buyers at $3.  

Am I right in expecting reserves upgrade and tsx listing in next 2 weeks and in that order? Any day or Feb 28th?


----------



## condog (12 February 2011)

newry said:


> Greetings Comrades.
> 
> G'day Condog (OGG) and others.
> 
> ...




Hey newry welcome

No firm dates yet that im aware of. Just the indicated dates of late feb. The LSE and TSX merger is an exciting proposition for AUT as well, which may give it another leg up once the UK investors have access.


----------



## donteatme (14 February 2011)

Looks like the shareprice was being pumped up by the Canadians. Lucky I got out when I did, just waiting on it to drop some more before reentering.


----------



## geelongfan (14 February 2011)

indeed. i purchased at 3.22 last week and have held until now. it was my first share and i didn't put in much, but it's looking to be a really bad decision. oh well, you live and you learn i guess. with that being said, i'll keep holding it and only sell unless it goes down to $2.00 or something. it's not that big a deal right now. i'm also holding some TXN shares too, so lets hope my horribly diversified portfolio does something one day haha


----------



## donteatme (14 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> indeed. i purchased at 3.22 last week and have held until now. it was my first share and i didn't put in much, but it's looking to be a really bad decision. oh well, you live and you learn i guess. with that being said, i'll keep holding it and only sell unless it goes down to $2.00 or something. it's not that big a deal right now. i'm also holding some TXN shares too, so lets hope my horribly diversified portfolio does something one day haha




Yeah, that's pretty poorly diversified lol. Should anything happen in Texas/US, you'd be badly hurt. 

I'm sure AUT will rebound.


----------



## geelongfan (14 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> Yeah, that's pretty poorly diversified lol. Should anything happen in Texas/US, you'd be badly hurt.
> 
> I'm sure AUT will rebound.




haha yeh. but when you only start with a small amount like i did, it's difficult to diversify through a bunch of companies as brokerage fees take too big a chunk out of any profits.


----------



## donteatme (14 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> haha yeh. but when you only start with a small amount like i did, it's difficult to diversify through a bunch of companies as brokerage fees take too big a chunk out of any profits.




Could've invested in two different industries, or at least that have their primary operations in a different area.

There's more risk, but potentially higher returns in doing what you have.


----------



## geelongfan (14 February 2011)

that's true. something i'll definitely take into account in the future.


----------



## AngusSmart (14 February 2011)

give it a month and i am sure you will be happy with your investment. you did buy up top however after a big run..


----------



## geelongfan (14 February 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> give it a month and i am sure you will be happy with your investment. you did buy up top however after a big run..




i did. and in the meantime i decided to read up on charting to learn a little about that. which is all good. i'm in with any shares i pick for the long term. my ideal profit would be 15% after a year. time will tell. either way i'm learning


----------



## condog (14 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> i did. and in the meantime i decided to read up on charting to learn a little about that. which is all good. i'm in with any shares i pick for the long term. my ideal profit would be 15% after a year. time will tell. either way i'm learning




Seriously, if you find a share and its only looking like returning 15% run for the hills, its a dud. IMO why take the risk that companies take if its only going to yeild a bit better then cash. Stuff that. 
Ideally you want to be in shares that look like improving 50% 100% 500%. Just like sEA and AUT have this year. So whos the next cab off the rank. Well it could be TXN. Not yet, but keep watching it closely for developments.. Could be EKA if they pull off a deal or two. 

In terms of your yeilders, go read Roger Montgomeries blog and if it has an ROE of less then 30% dont buy it. Preferably go the ones with ROE of over 45 or 50%. 
http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/category/a1/


----------



## Magic Man (14 February 2011)

Whay about ssn condog?


----------



## howmanyru (14 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> i did. and in the meantime i decided to read up on charting to learn a little about that. which is all good. i'm in with any shares i pick for the long term. my ideal profit would be 15% after a year. time will tell. either way i'm learning




I have to agree with condog, if you are hoping for 15% PA leave your money in the bank. I reckon there is too much risk in the stock market to settle for that amount. I also bought AUT a bit high, @ $2.95, was going to sell at $3.32 last Wed, but in my greed thought it may strike around $3.45 before falling back, oh well, looks like a holder now


----------



## condog (14 February 2011)

howmanyru said:


> I have to agree with condog, if you are hoping for 15% PA leave your money in the bank. I reckon there is too much risk in the stock market to settle for that amount. I also bought AUT a bit high, @ $2.95, was going to sell at $3.32 last Wed, but in my greed thought it may strike around $3.45 before falling back, oh well, looks like a holder now




howmanyru

i would fear, im sure in a few weeks you wont be looking to bad. 

Re: SSN, yep also one to watch, very much so.


----------



## shanti (14 February 2011)

Geelongfan, AUT was also my very first stock, I bought a year ago and only didn't sell for small profit thanks to posters like Condog and others tho I became faint hearted many a time on pull backs. Good luck to you and All Holders.
PS Check your mail box


----------



## HEA815 (14 February 2011)

This may seem like an open ended question but what has actually triggered and maintained the pullback and what needs to occur for a solid support level to be established (or was today it)?

Profit taking from some investors and possibly an increased trading agenda by others may impact on the sp, but why a fairly significant drop?  

The situation in N Africa (Egypt) is positive for the region (short term instability, long term gain), there's been no dramatic change in the price of oil, there's definitely been no negative news released by the company, so why has this been occurring?

Market dynamics is the easy throw away line but I'm interested to know if anyone has a more solid or well informed opinion.

Cheers


----------



## Sharejon (14 February 2011)

Two main reasons imo,

1. Profit taking
2. Production update (preferably one with first time released flow-rates, i.e. Gilley/Direct Assets and the 25% well starting with the S.... I forget the name!)

A production update should be released very soon i reckon. If i had spare cash in my bank I'd very much be looking to top up at these levels, especially with an updated reserves report coming up at the end of the month.


----------



## donteatme (15 February 2011)

Also, I think the increased buying from the newly announced substantial holder could've been pushing the price up.

I just had a flick through of the latest Euroz. The price target of $3.60, when is that supposed to be achieved by? Get a bit confused with the price targets with no date.


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

Fom the Guardian.uk


> Obama tests bond markets with mega-deficits
> US President Barack Obama faces a stiff battle with Republican foes in Congress after unveiling plans for $7.2 trillion (£4.5 trillion) of deficit spending over the next decade, and making little attempt to control the spiralling costs of social security and medical entitlements.




I cant see scare commodities like oil, gold and copper going backwards with that sort of money supply in the system. One would have to say its a deliberate ploy by the US to have a lower currency and boost exports and jobs. The flip side is its going to imo cause inflation for food, oil, gold, copper and all the other limited and scarce resources.


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

And from the atlantic dot com

More good news on the economic fronts - this should flow into oil prices if its sustained. 

"It was only six months ago that U.S. government and private sector data made a 2011 recovery uncertain. Economists may still refuse to give enough consideration to unemployment and the damaged housing market, which would make their optimism misplaced. Presumably, the WSJ economist panel took those things into consideration but believes that the American consumer is tired of austerity and business believes that the earnings improvement of the last two quarters can be maintained.

The U.S. economy was supposed to be what kept global GDP growth modest this year and next. It turns out that may not be the case. American demand for goods and services should help the Chinese economy. Germany's growth rate has improved rapidly as its exports have surged. Its effects on worldwide growth are small but proof that GDP recovery among large nations has quickened, when Japan is backed out.

The recession shattered every economy to some extent. The pieces may be coming back together again faster than expected. Global GDP now runs on two large engines, as the U.S. recovery takes an unexpectedly positive turn.
"


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

Nice to see some renewed buying and some better support, after yesterdays rubbish. A few too many woory worts and nervous holders me thinks and the quicker we clear the decks of them the better. 

Bought into TXN this morning after thier 60 day flows. Still risky, but the 60 day flow derisked enough for me to buy a holding.


----------



## Sharejon (15 February 2011)

Good to see AUT bouncing this morning.


----------



## kyrondgm (15 February 2011)

announcement must be imminent...either that or the smarter investors realise that the drop the last couple days was largely unfounded and are getting in for relatively cheap prices!!


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

I note in the latest EKA announcment they have recieved money from hilcopr for a couple of wells and expect to see more money flowing in Feb from another couple. 



> Hilcorp made its first revenue distribution to Eureka in January for an amount of approximately* US$95k*, representing the Company’s share of sales of part-month production from the Luna-1H and May-1H wells in November.
> 
> It is anticipated that a second distribution of approximately *US$235k *will be received in February relating to December sales of production from those wells as well as part-month production from Urrutia-1H.




One would presume we where paid on the same dates in our proportion. Unless our excess cash flow is earmarked to repay other wells not in the sugarloaf AMI. But the good news is wells are now starting to be repayed. So im guessing now we will continue to see a well a month or more come online cash flow wise, before accellerating to two wells a month later in the year etc.


----------



## geelongfan (15 February 2011)

can someone explain this stock quote screenshot i got for AUT today?





now, from what i gather. the BID is at $3.29 (Which is the highest someone is willing to pay) and the offer is $3.02 (which is the lowest that someone wants to sell at).. why are they so far apart?

so anyway, looking at market depth.. what's stopping someone buying 18,911 @ $3.02 and then selling them all to the guy who wants 39,496 @ $3.16??? seems very strange and an easy way to make some $$$$?? something tells me i've got it all wrong


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> can someone explain this stock quote screenshot i got for AUT today?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Simple at 4.00pm when the market closes the buy sell spreads and sides often get stuffed up. Ignore it , its crap and it happens. For a while there it was fixxed, but seems to be occuring again.


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

kyrondgm said:


> announcement must be imminent...either that or the smarter investors realise that the drop the last couple days was largely unfounded and are getting in for relatively cheap prices!!




It was a normal post run consolidation. Weve seen it 20 times and we will see it again, when it runs hard, it pulls back and then works its way up before going again. No surprises.


----------



## link128 (15 February 2011)

condog said:


> It was a normal post run consolidation. Weve seen it 20 times and we will see it again, when it runs hard, it pulls back and then works its way up before going again. No surprises.




A good time to do some trading if that happens again then (I have some free brokerage with CommSec atm). Would factors on charts like the RSI and MACD be good indicators of that, they tend to look okay judging by historical data?

I was in earlier at 2.92, then topped up a bit late at 3.17 (I topped up the wrong way, but thought I didn't want to miss the constant upward slope). As others have said this is the first stock in my portfolio too.

It's a good learning experience anyway


----------



## AngusSmart (15 February 2011)

link128 said:


> A good time to do some trading if that happens again then (I have some free brokerage with CommSec atm). Would factors on charts like the RSI and MACD be good indicators of that, they tend to look okay judging by historical data?
> 
> I was in earlier at 2.92, then topped up a bit late at 3.17 (I topped up the wrong way, but thought I didn't want to miss the constant upward slope). As others have said this is the first stock in my portfolio too.
> 
> It's a good learning experience anyway





Do not try and trade aut. it will bite you back, just when you think you have sold at the right moment it shoots up..


----------



## estseon (15 February 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Do not try and trade aut. it will bite you back, just when you think you have sold at the right moment it shoots up..




It's getting too close now to the publication of the reserves valuation and commencement of trading on the TSX. External events seem to be positive for oil - Shell projects an increase in energy demand over the next 40 years by an additional 200% (must be a bit of a finger in the wind) and increased supply by 50% and oil production plateauing. I would suggest that those who are bullish of the reserves revaluation and want to be invested when it is published might be best advised to hold. There was significant price movement in the last session but fairly muted volume.


----------



## condog (16 February 2011)

Yep given we just been through our post $3.32 rise consolidation and holding $3.15 with reserves statement , TSX listing and accellerate drilling starting as we speak, its a dangerous game being out of the stock in coming days and weeks. 

The reserves certification on its own has the potential to trigger some rediculous buying. Weve already seen the Canadians interest and we are not even listed over there yet. 

Also probably not the next two announcment, but the next few updates after that  have the potential to excite as they should be littered with new info when they occur with 4 rigs drilling away. 

We should see some new well apps in the coming wekk or so as well imo.


----------



## ob1kinobi (16 February 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Do not try and trade aut. it will bite you back, just when you think you have sold at the right moment it shoots up..




_touche_ well it has in the past anyway ...


----------



## Bubbasmith2 (16 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> can someone explain this stock quote screenshot i got for AUT today?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Those bids, after the close, are all 'bodgy bids' set to confuse 'novices' selling in panic and other ' novices' to buy in case they 'miss the boat'. It happens each day after the close and before the open the next day.


----------



## majorca (16 February 2011)

I have always looked at the pre trade bids and thought that if you have the highest or lowest bid you would possibly be first to trade ( at least I thought that was the logic others were using), ie the average intersection of price will be what you pay or receive irrelevent of the price shown. So I would not call them bodgie bids in that respect but yet another cunning plan that seems brilliant in someone elses head?


----------



## condog (16 February 2011)

This is why i was saying in here TXN was too early since about 4 months ago. I also had similar view for the last 12 months that AUT would significantly outperform EKA. 





Right now i think things are changing. As a result of yesterdays 60 day flow TXN will now grow. Whilst i think AUT still has very good growth, particularly in the next month or two, i also think if TXN now plays its cards right they will no experience significant growth, on the back of thier second horizontal and the verticle, lifting its boepd and its reserves. 

For me the make or break whehther i will continue to hold will be the second horizontal well 60 day results.


----------



## condog (16 February 2011)

This is why i was saying in here TXN was too early since about 4 months ago. I also had similar view for the last 12 months that AUT would significantly outperform EKA. 





As a result of yesterdays 60 day flow TXN will now grow. now i think things are changing. . Whilst i think AUT still has very good growth, particularly in the next month or two, i also think if TXN now plays its cards right they will no experience significant growth, on the back of thier second horizontal and the verticle, lifting its boepd and its reserves. 

For me the make or break whehther i will continue to hold will be the second horizontal well 60 day results.


----------



## link128 (16 February 2011)

condog, which charting application is that? Is that web based?


----------



## prgudula (16 February 2011)

link128 said:


> condog, which charting application is that? Is that web based?




it is from google finance

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...XN;ASX:AZZ&cmptdms=0;0;0;0&q=ASX:AUT&&fct=big


----------



## kennyhunter (16 February 2011)

majorca said:


> I have always looked at the pre trade bids and thought that if you have the highest or lowest bid you would possibly be first to trade ( at least I thought that was the logic others were using), ie the average intersection of price will be what you pay or receive irrelevent of the price shown. So I would not call them bodgie bids in that respect but yet another cunning plan that seems brilliant in someone elses head?




For those really interested ASX provide some formulae for determining the pre and post trade price.   Link.  

Apparently there is method to the seeming madness.  I must admit it confused me for a looong time - I always thought it a glitch until someone pointed this out to me.

Hope that helps someone.


----------



## condog (16 February 2011)

link128 said:


> condog, which charting application is that? Is that web based?




Its just comsec

And you compare


----------



## gsnz1 (16 February 2011)

Hi Condog/OGG
Do you think that AUT will follow their acquisition path entirely within Hilcorp operated acreage? I understand they have a good relationship with Hilcorp and so far it has been an extremely succesful partnership so I can see the benefits of sticking to a winning formula in a proven area. I ask this as the following article reports about Gonzalez County well results and I believe Hilcorp have earned 85% of Lucas acreage. Would the results so far warrant AUT taking a stake in this acreage?  

A horizontal well targeting the Eagle Ford formation and operated by Hilcorp Energy Company is flowing oil. 

Upstream staff  11 February 2011 22:57 GMT 

The Hagen EF No.1H well in Gonzalez County, Texas, has tested as much as 350 barrels per day of light sweet crude during the flow-back period, said US independent Lucas Energy, a 15% stakeholder in the well. 

The well has produced more than 2600 barrels of crude oil to date, Lucas said. 

It is still flowing back load water with the oil and will be put on artificial lift soon, the company said.


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article244732.ece

Cheers


----------



## condog (17 February 2011)

gsnz1 said:


> Hi Condog/OGG
> Do you think that AUT will follow their acquisition path entirely within Hilcorp operated acreage? I understand they have a good relationship with Hilcorp and so far it has been an extremely succesful partnership so I can see the benefits of sticking to a winning formula in a proven area. I ask this as the following article reports about Gonzalez County well results and I believe Hilcorp have earned 85% of Lucas acreage. Would the results so far warrant AUT taking a stake in this acreage?
> 
> Cheers




I think certainly they have a preference for hilcorp, but it wont limit them imo to buying acerages where hilcorp is operator. I think theyed have a clear preference to lease ascerage where there is no operator then farm in hilcorp. 

Given the "relative weakness" of EKA to some acerage prices it must be looking like a possible purchase. I ran the numbers about two months ago and it was a tad too expensive, but given time and rising aquisition costs elsewhere it really would have to be a consideration. They could to a scrip deal and it wouldnt cost us much at all. .


----------



## Assasin (17 February 2011)

For those wanting to do a bit more research.

http://eaglefordinfo.blogspot.com/2010/10/collection-of-eagle-ford-maps-from.html

Apologies if been posted before.

Its a great read put together by a unhappy land owner in the DeWitt county alerting landowners of the operating tactics of the oil companies but offers a great insight into the entire region and the best maps i've seen.
Cheers

Holding: AUT, SEA, EKA, TXN, MHM, XAM, WHN


----------



## prgudula (17 February 2011)

A new article has been posted on our website. To view the full article, please click on the link below.


Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Research


http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1483&EID=45577481


----------



## Magic Man (17 February 2011)

Not a bad day for AUT, however the sellers are up and the buying is down.. I think we need an anouncemnt shortly to reignite some interest. What a dog of a day for SEA and TXN.. The market showing niether much love.


----------



## condog (17 February 2011)

imo there is a cyclic buy on the banks happening , which should last a few wekks, before energy stocks come back into favour. We have plenty of news due in coming weeks , i wouldnt fret.


----------



## condog (17 February 2011)

prgudula said:


> A new article has been posted on our website. To view the full article, please click on the link below.
> 
> 
> Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Research
> ...




Great find Pramond,  cheers .   $3.45 target


----------



## condog (17 February 2011)

A very interesting slide as part of the Combank preso.  

Upside with bullish scenario , valuation of $4.75




Got to be thinking after feb reserves review, C bank and Euroz will be upgrading valuations significantly.





Plenty of reserves to be converted to 2P when you look at it this way. The Longhorn and Ipenema wells should surely increase these a lot in feb , then Excellsior later this year.

If the NPAT projections by CBA are to believed imagine the mcap on reasonbale PE ratios. 
A PE of just 8 would give us a $4.8B mcap in 2017 . That could approximate to an sp of approx, $12. 





Also the cash flow modeling shows some rediculously strong growth from say late 2011 onwards as the cashflow really begins to kick in and bring fundamental investors into the fold.


----------



## Magic Man (17 February 2011)

Hey condog very good information there. Was just reading a post on the hawkleys forum. Check it out and give us your thoughts on wronguns post.. Is hawkleys similiar to aut and could it be a 10 baggggger??


----------



## condog (19 February 2011)

Entire following Post by esteon: 

reserves valuation is published and that should be next week, or the Monday following at the latest.

AUT volume has been pretty small for days even though the price has danced around a bit. Some bought at over 10c more than the closing price. If there was anything negative it might well have leaked out a bit by now. NSAI is probably printing off about 150 incomprehensible spreadsheets as last time - and that's just for AUT.

It's possible that the brokers will be given an early view so that they can get their revised notes and targets out reasonably soon after.

Not long to wait, now. A waste of time and energy trying to speculate on amended assumptions. There are a number of changes that would compound up to produce something quite eye-watering but we can't guess what they will take on board for this valuation. Could see NPV10 for 3p of $2bn (including new land) but who knows? That would take us past the CBA target in a flash. Probably take us through the GMP Securities target of $3.85 also.

What did Euroz say?

"Additionally, strength of the production data bodes well for the revised reserves statement in the Mar Q." 

They may be talking about reduced declines.

"Furthermore, tighter development well spacing (vertically and horizontally), continued out-performance vs. the Netherland&Sewell type-curve, and higher EURs encourages
us to see significant upside to 3P reserves can be realized over the next few years." 

They are trying hard to suggest reduced declines assumptions and denser drilling. 60 acre spacing would be a 33% increase right away and AUT has mentioned the '60' figure.(page 17 of the 2 Feb 2011 presentation)

"We highlight the leverage AUT offers to rising oil prices; applying US$120/bbl long-term underpins a $4.40/sh valuation"

Can't see NSAI using a $120/bbl assumption but they are trying hard to flag $4+ target and to find an excuse to do so.

AUT also flagged that 10 - 15% of the net acreage might not have been valued in the first report (page 17 of the 2 Feb 2011 presentation).

AUT also flagged on that magic page 17 that the producing wells have a higher condensate ratio than assumed. 


All in all it would be a great disappointment if little or nothing of these bullish hints came to be reflected in the reserves report. AUT was presenting that material at a time when NSAI was doing its sums and the management must have had a feel for what NSAI might take into account for its amended assumptions. There must have been discussions between the management and NSAI and the management will have asked what might be reasonably said in the presentation.

You could easily see 120% (oil price), 130% (spacing), 110% (uncounted acreage), 125% (?reduced declines?), 125% (?increased condensate ratio?).

Put that lot together (compound) and you get a breath-taking 268%. Apply that to the figure on page 11 of the presentation for NPV10, $1.374bn, and you get $3.68bn, or $8.85 per share (USD).

I doubt very much that they will publish such a massive figure this time around - spacing might have to wait and declines & condensate ratio might be reduced. But, run with 115% (oil price), 110% (uncounted), 115% (declines) & 115% (condensate ratio) and you get 167%: $2.3bn: $5.53/share.

I can't speculate on what they have run with but they don't need to upgrade the assumptions by all that much to result in a significant upward valuation.

.


----------



## condog (19 February 2011)

New well app called Davenport Unit


----------



## Agentm (19 February 2011)

condog said:


> New well app called Davenport Unit




its a well using the same site as the jordan pad, not 100% certain but doesnt look like a dual lateral but more like 2 wells off one pad.

those cinco wells are going in one after the other.. making my good friends in texas nice and rich..


----------



## rockhound308 (19 February 2011)

Results from Turnbull 5 and 6 will be interesting to watch.
Drilled ~parallel from the same pad with around 700' separation and 5000' lateral would give 80 acres.  Communication between the wells or lack of it will be quite telling.
I guess that info is unlikely to be released but some hints might come in the form completion difficulties and or the good-old tight choke


----------



## condog (19 February 2011)

rockhound308 said:


> Results from Turnbull 5 and 6 will be interesting to watch.
> Drilled ~parallel from the same pad with around 700' separation and 5000' lateral would give 80 acres.  Communication between the wells or lack of it will be quite telling.
> I guess that info is unlikely to be released but some hints might come in the form completion difficulties and or the good-old tight choke




They will let us know, if thier is communication as that would be significant news. And your right it will be very interesting. Possibly to late to take into account for this reserves statement, but if they pull it off it may begin to sure up an increased EUR and tighter spacing for the reserves statement in late 2011. 

Obviously we dont want them doing too many too close right, now, as the key aim right now is to drill and meet leasing obligations. But eventually when they have both enough time and capital, it will be very important to begin to experiment with closer well spacing, multiple wells on single pads etc. Can they get2,  3, 4 off the one pad, possibly 5??  




Answer: who knows thats what has to be tried. But im sure we have som drilling to secure acerages first.
If they can get multiple wells off the one pad that will help with drill times and NPV of wells, immensley

I dont think theres any doubt they can get two off the one pad, but i wouldnt at all be surprised to see 3 or 4 attempted. Makes for easy and cheaper scaling if they can.


----------



## condog (19 February 2011)

Pretty easy to see that all the unconventional US oilers have suffered some share price pressure in recent weeks that corresponds with the oil price weakness. Oil seems to be steadily rising again now. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see significant strength again soon.


----------



## rockhound308 (19 February 2011)

condog said:


> I dont think theres any doubt they can get two off the one pad, but i wouldnt at all be surprised to see 3 or 4 attempted. Makes for easy and cheaper scaling if they can.




In an ideal world six wells from one pad would probably be the most efficient, something like this.




Drilling shouldn't be an issue with the steerable gear and they are already cutting the curve at the start of the lateral anyway. I wouldn't be surprised to see savings if 15% or so off the well costs if it can be made to work, but as you say securing acreage is the priority at the moment.  At least Turnbull 5 and 6 will give the reservoir engineers something to run the numbers on.


----------



## condog (20 February 2011)

Chesapeak are apparently planning 4-8 per pad with Stratoil in the Marcellus. 
http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2008/Downloads/Presentation 111108.pdf 
And from another forum, not HC, 







> Touching on wells per pad, Chesapeake is setting up their locations extra large to allow for 8 locations per pad in Eagle Ford - four toe up, four toe down.




From Williams Energy 







> 2-6 wells per pad on conventional rigs and up to 10 to 22 wells/pad on new HP/SSD rigs, all are directional.



Not sure on thier geology, but all are directional wells. Sounds pie in the sky, but they do have it in all thier presentations. 
http://cogcc.state.co.us/Library/Presentations/NWForum20080904/WilNWForum608.ppt

Consol Energy in the Marcellus plans to have 6 per pad, as does Cabot also in the Marcellus. 

Shell are in fact making a huge deal about multi well pads, for environmental reasons, by having a significantly smaller "footprint". In some locations they have 32 wells per pad planned on thier Pindale site. How on earth they manage that is anyones guess. But it goes to show whats possible.







> Maximum of 4 pads every square mile with ability
> to 16–32 wells per pad




I honestly think the most we will see during this phase where we need to secure acerage is two per pad. Unless later in the year they do 3 or four from one pad just prior to the reserves report.


----------



## Agentm (20 February 2011)

condog said:


> They will let us know, if thier is communication as that would be significant news. And your right it will be very interesting. Possibly to late to take into account for this reserves statement, but if they pull it off it may begin to sure up an increased EUR and tighter spacing for the reserves statement in late 2011.
> 
> Obviously we dont want them doing too many too close right, now, as the key aim right now is to drill and meet leasing obligations. But eventually when they have both enough time and capital, it will be very important to begin to experiment with closer well spacing, multiple wells on single pads etc. Can they get2,  3, 4 off the one pad, possibly 5??
> 
> ...




chesapeake have a few permits near by to texons acreages in mcmullen with some multiple wells off one pad.. up to six of each side by side..  starting to look like barnett shale in fort worth imho..

there are dual laterals being done in all counties and often  triple laterals

a little to the north of the turnbulls and hilcorp cluster the use of dual laterals in the same direction are common now with plains and dan hughes

conoco have been discussing new well designs in karnes county close to the turnbulls, multiple laterals from what i am told. look forward to the permits in a few months


----------



## condog (20 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> chesapeake have a few permits near by to texons acreages in mcmullen with some multiple wells off one pad.. up to six of each side by side..  starting to look like barnett shale in fort worth imho..
> 
> there are dual laterals being done in all counties and often  triple laterals
> 
> ...




Cheers for that, looks awfully crowded.


----------



## condog (21 February 2011)

3 weeks since the quarterly and last update. Id almost bet we will get an update early this week. With 4 rigs on site theres too much happening to only get an update once a month.

Awaiting 
Direct Access flow to sales news
Giley unit remedial work completion and flow to sales
Updated flow data on Turnbull #4H well and the Sienkiewicz #1H and Yosko

From Ipanema
Awaiting flow data on Patino #1H well,Franke #1H , Foster #1H .

Awaiting
Netherland, Sewell & Associates Inc (“NSAI”) reserves upgrade end of feb

Awaiting TSX listing late FEb

Plus other wells that have spudded in the last 3 weeks.


----------



## condog (21 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Hey condog very good information there. Was just reading a post on the hawkleys forum. Check it out and give us your thoughts on wronguns post.. Is hawkleys similiar to aut and could it be a 10 baggggger??




I will reply in  the HOG thread.


----------



## Magic Man (21 February 2011)

Thanks Cpondog. I see the Canadian prospectus announcement has just been released, hopefully it props up the share price a little.


----------



## donteatme (21 February 2011)

In fact, it looks like it's doing quite the opposite


----------



## estseon (21 February 2011)

Warrants convert on Thursday. Outstanding docs to be sent to TSX over next few days. They might be lining up the ducks for a broadside on Friday (including the reserves valuation). They're certainly streaming compliance with procedures to meet the Monday deadline. Bet they're pleased to see the back of that prospectus.


----------



## estseon (21 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> In fact, it looks like it's doing quite the opposite




I only have ASX information but I don't think that I'll lose any sleep over volume of 200k out of a float of over 400 million.


----------



## kyrondgm (21 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> In fact, it looks like it's doing quite the opposite




Would any of this be a reaction to the relatively cheap price that AUT is floating for over in Canadia? I have no idea when it comes to pricing for overseas floats but its almost half what AUT is listed for over here and the AUD is basically at parity with the CAD. 

I am guessing there are a lot of factors involved and perhaps AUT are trying to say to the potential investors on the TSX that they are getting a bargain so get in quick???


----------



## geelongfan (21 February 2011)

Also think its quite strange. Also, how does the tsx get a certain number of shares to play with (looks like only 6 mill or so), is it some investor just dumping his shares from the asx to the tsx (prob people from the board of the company)? I'm not so sure listing on the tsx is a good idea for the company right now. May be biting off more than they can chew as its now playin in the big leagues. That being said, they may kno a bunch of canadians that want in and by giving them a bargain may be the perfect way to get them in the game. I trust aut has a plan. With the entire thing hinging off the reserves report it would be a bad move to enter the tsx on the back of bad news. Maybe that's why they made the price low?


----------



## trader8888 (21 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> Also think its quite strange. Also, how does the tsx get a certain number of shares to play with (looks like only 6 mill or so), is it some investor just dumping his shares from the asx to the tsx (prob people from the board of the company)? I'm not so sure listing on the tsx is a good idea for the company right now. May be biting off more than they can chew as its now playin in the big leagues. That being said, they may kno a bunch of canadians that want in and by giving them a bargain may be the perfect way to get them in the game. I trust aut has a plan. With the entire thing hinging off the reserves report it would be a bad move to enter the tsx on the back of bad news. Maybe that's why they made the price low?




AUT is in the big leagues now with a MC over $1billion. AUT is doing a lot of promoting in Canada and their is a lot of interest from Canadian investment firms ie harbour advisors and GMP Securities. The entire thing is'nt hanging of the reserves report, this report will just catapault AUT to new highs.

(Holding - AUT, AVI, CVE)


----------



## katygal (22 February 2011)

I have a few pictures from Karnes County, Texas that I think you all would love to see. I assume I have to load the pics to a public server or website??  Any help would be appreciated.


----------



## geelongfan (22 February 2011)

katygal said:


> I have a few pictures from Karnes County, Texas that I think you all would love to see. I assume I have to load the pics to a public server or website??  Any help would be appreciated.




use this website and post the links for forums that they allow you to copy and paste

http://imageshack.us/


----------



## katygal (22 February 2011)

Here are a few pics of the PMT Unit as of yesterday:





[/URL][/IMG]






[/URL][/IMG]






[/URL][/IMG]


----------



## condog (22 February 2011)

Thanks katygal, do you live in the area, or have contacts??

You can directly upload them to ASF, but you would need to reduce the file sizes, which can be done in paint, just reduce the size of the image to about 6*4


----------



## condog (22 February 2011)

Very Strong oil price rises, due to tensions in middle east. Bodes well for AUT, TXN, SEA, HOG, EKA etc.


----------



## katygal (22 February 2011)

Please bear with me.  I don't mean to get off subject but did want to test uploading a few smaller pics.  Here are a few more of the PMT Unit:








I live in South Texas and I was curious as to what was happening at this well site so I took a little trip and took a few pics for you all. The activity in Karnes County is quite amazing.


----------



## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

Sorry PMT unit? Is this Aurora in action?


----------



## condog (22 February 2011)

katygal said:


> Please bear with me.  I don't mean to get off subject but did want to test uploading a few smaller pics.  Here are a few more of the PMT Unit:
> 
> I live in South Texas and I was curious as to what was happening at this well site so I took a little trip and took a few pics for you all. The activity in Karnes County is quite amazing.




Great Job KatyGirl, really appreciate your input. A pictures worth a 1000 words.


----------



## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

I just noted that BHP is buying a substantial share in a well known Shale in America for 4.3 billion dollars.. Eagleford??


----------



## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

Further reading its the Fayetville shale... If someone like BHP is interested in buying Shales there must be a heap of interest out there,


----------



## condog (22 February 2011)

One would begin to think the TSX listing is going to happen then closely followed by a reserves upgrade and operational update. Given they seem to be keeping us hungry for an update, and a cashflow update, id bet they are saving some juicy bits till after the TSX listing.


----------



## AngusSmart (22 February 2011)

Magic man.


Wrong fayetteville. that one is in Arkansas which is N,E from Texas.. EKA has interests in a county in Texas called fayette...


----------



## Sdajii (22 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Sorry PMT unit? Is this Aurora in action?




The PMT unit is used to deal with women who are behaving even more poorly than usual. AUT has done really well so we've branched out into providing this community service.

...I actually have no idea what a PMT unit is, just a crap sense of humour.

Interesting pictures, Katy! Thank you for posting them 

It's funny (at least to me) to see AUT's price movements, the repeated cycle of hitting a new high, going through consolidation, smashing out a new high, and so on. Looking at the chart and the fundamentals, right now looks like a brilliant time to buy in/top up. I don't really understand why AUT doesn't move up faster, why it stays in the channel it is in. Given that it stays in that channel I don't understand why people sell on the lows or buy on the highs (buying on the highs would perhaps be on speculation of it breaking into a new channel/breaking out?). I also puzzle over how the lows can stay so low on the channel for so long with something with AUT's fundamentals. Not that it bothers me to be puzzled 

OGG/Condog: Are you sure the current spike in oil price is a good thing for us? Like all of us evil, greedy-oil-baron-monsters, I love it when we can sell our oil at a good price, but if the spike is due to a temporary scare, surely the high price will mean more imports, less local usage, an increase in inventories, then a drop in price right when people are adapting to lower consumption, thus overall we may end up selling less oil at a lower price in the longer term. An obvious macrocosm of this was 2008 when oil prices surged, the economy couldn't handle it, the result being a collapse in price and consumption. Oil above $90 or so, to me, seems concerning. Not that I'm the smartest person in the world or the one who best understands the situation, of course.

Your take on this?


----------



## bbker (22 February 2011)

Sdajii said:


> The PMT unit is used to deal with women who are behaving even more poorly than usual. AUT has done really well so we've branched out into providing this community service.
> 
> ...I actually have no idea what a PMT unit is, just a crap sense of humour.




Lulz (i did laugh) it's one of our wells!


----------



## gsnz1 (23 February 2011)

posted by Nexus on HC....



> Posted by Safiande in the EME thread (UK).
> 
> Petrohawk 4th qtr results 22 Feb
> 
> ...


----------



## condog (23 February 2011)

from WSJ dot com - the weakness of the oilers over the past 2-3 weeks on the back of declining oil prices, should be halted. These numbers are very much more profitable for AUT's condensate component.


> NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Escalating violence in Libya pushed oil prices sharply higher Tuesday, as the unrest sweeping the greater Middle East shows no signs of abating.
> 
> The North African nation, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, holds the largest reserves in Africa and accounts for about 1.7% of world crude output. The unrest in Libya has caused about 50,000 barrels a day of oil output to be shut down, an official at the International Energy Agency said Monday.
> 
> ...




Sadji, short term volatility, shouldnt cause any economic slowdown, other then possibly a profit hit to airlines and transport co's that have not hedged against oil fluctuations. Most half intelligent co's that are so reliant on oil price hedge with forward contracts for supply. 

If the high oil price hangs around 6-12 months then it will cause some ripples in some sectors. Aus should do well as our strong AUD partially offsets any rise, but it wont help the US and EU with pressure on both those currencies, compounded with higher energy costs, they cop a double whammy.


----------



## condog (24 February 2011)

TXS listing occurs today Canada time, so excpect announcment today, with price effected tommorrow.

NSAI update any day. 

A very big week ahead for AUT and holders.


----------



## Magic Man (24 February 2011)

Another fantastic day on the markets at the moment.. wondering whether to top up again on AUT or just let what i already have ride just incase we see it drop further. Hard to believe that with Nymex Crude almost 100 dollars a barrell overnight that all these promising oil stock shave been halted in there tracks (SEA, HOG) for example. The only one i want to tank is tXN and its holding a little where it opened.. Very frustating. 

Ive heard some analysts say that they expect the ASX to hit 4400 again this year, with all the troubles in the middle east and the strong run we have had do you think this is a possibility, or is it just a healthy pullback? 

Cheers guys.


----------



## breaker (24 February 2011)

Although off topic XJO bounced off 4800


----------



## condog (24 February 2011)

These stocks tend to follow value as much as they follow the market. 

4400, thats a rediculously huge call by someone. Not sure they will see that, but in realty who knows. The one thing we do know is you want to be in stocks that are rapidly developing reserves and flows. 

Is aut, HOG, txn, eka, sea doing that - Yes

Thats about as good as it gets.


----------



## Magic Man (24 February 2011)

Yeah pretty spot on Condog


----------



## mir (25 February 2011)

update from GMP


SUBJECT: Aurora Oil & Gas Limited ? New Frac Technology Upside 

IMPACT: Positive ? Could improve EUR?s per well by at least 25%.

? We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora?s reserves based on higher EUR?s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford. 

? Aurora is expected to start trading tomorrow on the TSX under the new symbol ?AEF?.


----------



## golfmos123 (25 February 2011)

very nice day for AUT thus far, up to 3.18 on decent volume very quickly.  presumably this is driven by Toronto listing, upgrades to kick it on further we hope.

Good luck to all holders......


----------



## geelongfan (25 February 2011)

golfmos123 said:


> very nice day for AUT thus far, up to 3.18 on decent volume very quickly.  presumably this is driven by Toronto listing, upgrades to kick it on further we hope.
> 
> Good luck to all holders......




definitely not the time to sell IMHO.. schlumbergers new frac method could see vast improvements in production increases for wells in the eagleford region without anything else taken into account..

given the tension in the middle east and raising oil prices.. i see the proven eagleford region to benefit if the companies are run and operated by competent people..

the tsx listing has pumped a breath of fresh air in the stock. the reserves report could see it go to new highs.. all imho tho


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

Looks like a big friday and even bigger start to next week for AUT. Sellers are drying up , and the combination of NSAI reserves upgrade and TSX listing will be like a shot of heroin in the arm for the sp in my opinion. 

Looking good.


----------



## Dukey (25 February 2011)

condog said:


> Looks like a big friday and even bigger start to next week for AUT. Sellers are drying up , and the combination of NSAI reserves upgrade and TSX listing will be like a shot of heroin in the arm for the sp in my opinion.
> 
> Looking good.




Yes - looking very nice.
sadly i'll be in a car and remote for most of next week so i'll miss the fun - but hopefully in for a nice surprise next friday .

also seems to have taken any attention from EKa which hasn't traded at all today - but no trading halt that i can find ?!... but thats fine - every dog has his day.


----------



## newry (25 February 2011)

Dukey said:


> Yes - looking very nice.
> sadly i'll be in a car and remote for most of next week so i'll miss the fun - but hopefully in for a nice surprise next friday .
> 
> also seems to have taken any attention from EKa which hasn't traded at all today - but no trading halt that i can find ?!... but thats fine - every dog has his day.






It looks very much like a bullish engulfing candle on the charts today. I would suggest this is going to $3.60 bear minimum short term. Looking forward to the coming news.


Cheers


----------



## prgudula (25 February 2011)

newry said:


> It looks very much like a bullish engulfing candle on the charts today. I would suggest this is going to $3.60 bear minimum short term. Looking forward to the coming news.
> 
> 
> Cheers




http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

AUT.AX has closed below upper band by 20.2%. Bollinger Bands are 10% narrower than normal. The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices.


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

B race yourselves for next week if you think today was good. 

If those morons at the ASX can resist giving us speeding fines we are in for a huge week or two. 

If they knew the first thing about the stock, perhaps they wouldnt need to issue speeding tickets. 

Pisses you off when momentum is killed by some 16 year old lacky making a name for himself by issueing these things. grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.


----------



## Mister Mark (25 February 2011)

Yes Condog i agree, but must say happy for another on Monday, then Tuesday etc.

Do we list for sure tonight on TSX? Thought there would have been an anouncement to say it was a certain.

Thank you again for your help and education


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

Courtesy of Pramond



> SUBJECT:  Aurora Oil & Gas Limited – New Frac Technology Upside
> IMPACT: Positive – Could improve EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
> SUMMARY:  Petrohawk Energy announced early success with a new frac technique within the Eagle Ford play.  Schlumberger has developed a new stimulation technique called “HiWay” Flow-Channel Hydraulic Fracturing that fundamentally changes the way proppant fractures generate conductivity, allowing bigger flow channels and subsequently higher EUR’s per well in theory.
> DETAILS:
> ...




This is huge for all the oilers, not just AUT. To get this news on top of the NSAI upgrade and the TSX listing is massive. 

Makes me want to buy buy buy.  Not just AUT, but also SEA, HOG and TXN. 

25% upgrades in EUR's is massive from a technological advancement.


----------



## PinguPingu (25 February 2011)

Damn, should have bought all AUT instead of splitting it half-half with EKA (Thinking it has catching up to do). AUT's gone up 25% for me, whilst EKA down 6%. :bonk:


----------



## prgudula (25 February 2011)

Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (AEF)
Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=aef&locale=EN


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

prgudula said:


> Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (AEF)
> Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange
> 
> http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=aef&locale=EN




Right now at 8.30 pm friday night its 4.30 am in Toronto. So unless your a real night owl, we will awake to a hopefully nice stock price.


----------



## estseon (25 February 2011)

prgudula said:


> Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (AEF)
> Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange
> 
> http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=aef&locale=EN




They don't commence trading until 01.30 Saturday for you guys.

That note posted by condog is supposed to be sourced from GMP securities, the TSX market-maker for AUT - source Mir.

It'll be interesting to see what happens on the TSX today.

Don't really understand why the TSX thinks that AUT will be traded today but AUT is unsure that the TSX will grant listing. One would hope that the market-maker knows, and it thinks that it will be trading the stock.

If you go to the Schlumberger site you'll see that they have achieved better than 25%. And it would seem that they can use pretty much the same equipment.


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

*We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford. *

esteon that last paragraph is a pretty amazing read. Even if they are only half right, thats one hell of a big statement, that means a lot for AUT holders. 

If they are apply a technological 25% increase late in that paragraph, ie after the chalks, the spacing, the sured up reserves, which is the way i would think it works. That makes that 25% technological improvement in EUR's one hell of an increase over what we currently have. Its more like a 125-250% increase imo  in what we currently have based on the technology alone, if you apply it to all the increases in EUR's from the above. . 

*If their half right its a 125% increase base case. If they are correct in seeing a 10 fold increase then its a 250% increase just from the technology imo.*
Judging by the comments and complete lack there of, i dont think many people realise how significant this is for all the shale oilers. But in particular for AUT.


----------



## condog (25 February 2011)

*My appologies to both PRGudula and MIR, for confusion. MIR brought this knowledge to bear. *


----------



## estseon (25 February 2011)

condog said:


> *We already see up to a 10 fold increase in Aurora’s reserves based on higher EUR’s, potential down spacing and from the uphole Austin Chalk, but if this new technology works we see further upside in this asset base. Petrohawk stressed that one of the benefits of the HiWay frac is that it is even a little cheaper per stage than a conventional hybrid frac as they use a little less sand. This will further improve the NPV per well for Aurora if this proves to be the route of choice for future development in the Eagle Ford. *
> 
> esteon that last paragraph is a pretty amazing read. Even if they are only half right, thats one hell of a big statement, that means a lot for AUT holders.
> 
> ...




Condog, all the benefits compound up.

To me, the sticking point on "10 fold increase" is that TXN has said in its business plan that the standard expectation is 5% recovery of O&G in place. A "10 fold increase" would imply 50% recovery. I'm not saying that they can't do that (huge pressure in the rock itself so why not?) but it's not in my dreams yet.

But, a 2.5 x of NPV10 (taking into account oil price and reduced costs) does not require extreme assumptions on technology, especially for AUT. To assist, we have the factor highlighted by AUT that the maiden valuation was based on 85 - 90% of the acreage (boundaries and missing leases). AUT is expecting an improvement there. We have the money factors (20% increase in oil price?), we have the better than expected condensate ratio (they've mentioned this somewhere), we have a significantly ramped-up drilling schedule (reduces the discount for NPV calculations) and we have the skewing of AUT's reserves more towards oil through Excelsior. That's before looking at greater recovery through reduced production decline (using choked flow), reduced well spacing and the benefits that HiWay technology can provide.

GMP would look real idiots talking about "10 fold increases" just days before the release of the NCAI report if none of this was reflected in the valuation. GMP is the market-maker for AUT's stock trading on TSX: they're not any old firm trying to ramp up the stock. 

So, will the Canadians try to jump on board before ASX open on Monday? There's no guarantee that there will be a release of that report (as promised) but they'll miss the early action if they wait to trade through the TSX on Monday. GMP's comments should have gingered them up a bit.

Tally Ho!


----------



## mir (26 February 2011)

this is the bit i find interesting "and from the uphole Austin Chalk" .so are they only producing from the eagle ford at the moment?


----------



## Kremmen (26 February 2011)

condog said:


> Right now at 8.30 pm friday night its 4.30 am in Toronto. So unless your a real night owl, we will awake to a hopefully nice stock price.




I'm a night owl.

AEF opened C$3.50, traded as low as $3.45. Now at its high so far of $3.60. (as of 10:28 AM EST)


----------



## estseon (26 February 2011)

Kremmen said:


> I'm a night owl.
> 
> AEF opened C$3.50, traded as low as $3.45. Now at its high so far of $3.60. (as of 10:28 AM EST)




It'll be interesting to see the close. GMP securities will have to go into the ASX market on Monday and close its position and the price movement suggests net buying. The C$ and the A$ are almost par with the C$ just a cent stronger.


----------



## MACCA350 (26 February 2011)

Am I reading this right?
The new Canadian shares(AEF) were subscribed at C$1.60 
The new Canadian shares(AEF) are currently trading at C$3.60

Am I missing something or did the new shareholders just more than double their investment?

Cheers


----------



## condog (26 February 2011)

macca thats spot on.

$3.60 is a wonderful start for a foriegn unfamiliar stock..  Imagine what they woll pay when they truly understand and trust it.


----------



## condog (26 February 2011)

estseon said:


> Condog, all the benefits compound up.
> 
> To me, the sticking point on "10 fold increase" is that TXN has said in its business plan that the standard expectation is 5% recovery of O&G in place. A "10 fold increase" would imply 50% recovery. I'm not saying that they can't do that (huge pressure in the rock itself so why not?) but it's not in my dreams yet.
> 
> But, a 2.5 x of NPV10 (taking into account oil price and reduced costs) does not require extreme assumptions on technology, especially for AUT.




That first reserves report was extremely conservative. Simply including acerage they didnt even count in the last statement would give a 100% increase.  Then reducing well spacing gives another compound 100%, which now equates to a 400% increase. To then allow for the higher condensate ratios gives another say 25% comound increase, which is 25% of 400%. So we are now sitting on a 500% increase from the 2010 reserve.

Add to this 25% for the new fraccing technique and we are approaching 625% from the base case.

Chuck 25% compound on for reduced declines and we are around 750%. 

Throw in an upgrade that counts the chalks and its not hard to see why they envisage a 10 fold increase.

Clearly it aint gunna happen over night, but just as certain imo, is it will happen over time that we easily surpass a 500% increase from our maiden reserves statement. And infact id put money imo on it reaching 750%+


----------



## estseon (26 February 2011)

Condog,

makes me a bit dizzy to think about it.

A very good start would be NPV10 $2.5bn for 3p.

Monday ASX open should be around $3.50. Otherwise, GMP will just soak up cheap shares to sell on the TSX later in the day.

Incredibly good day for all holders.


----------



## gsnz1 (26 February 2011)

estseon said:


> Condog,
> 
> makes me a bit dizzy to think about it.
> 
> ...




Just trying to get my head round all these numbers . Mind boggling stuff. 

How does the TSX listing work? GMP buy shares on ASX and sell them into TSX at a price deemed fair by the market in Australia thus creating more upward pressure on the stock price? Is this correct?


----------



## geelongfan (26 February 2011)

hey guys,

have another question

could someone explain how trading on the weekend works?
for instance, can i put a buy order in @ 3.26 now at AUT to top up?
how would i know if it has been successful since the market is closed?
i'm assuming you can't buy shares at all during the weekend but you can still put in orders? kinda confusedd.

thanks


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (26 February 2011)

You'll be in the queue come Monday morning mate.


----------



## condog (26 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> hey guys,
> 
> have another question
> 
> ...




The market shuts 4pm for us mortals on Friday and re-opens monday 10am. We cannot trade ordinary stocks in between those times.


----------



## geelongfan (26 February 2011)

ah ok thanks.. another question.. with the listing on the TSX. how does that work exactly? does the ASX have 50% of shares and the TSX have 50% of shares? or are they 100% liquid between the two markets?

i'm sure all the nooblets appreciate my questions


----------



## philly (26 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> ah ok thanks.. another question.. with the listing on the TSX. how does that work exactly? does the ASX have 50% of shares and the TSX have 50% of shares? or are they 100% liquid between the two markets?
> 
> i'm sure all the nooblets appreciate my questions





Hi Geelongfan, I'll have a go at explaining how I think it works:-
AUT has its aussie shares listed on the ASX. 
It then issued *additional *shares @ $C1.60 and listed them on the TSX for our canadian investors.

A company is able to issue new shares whenever it needs to raise capital [ie capital raising or a SPP]
In effect what AUT has done is engaged in a capital raising for Canadian investors.

The 2 lots of shares on the ASX and TSX are mutually exclusive. We have ours and the Canadians have theirs. Our number of shares will not increase or decrease by what happens  on the TXS and vice versa.
If a candian whats to buy AUT on the ASX he can but the shares stay here and if he wants to sell then he does so on the ASX. He cannot buy here and sell on TXS
I hope this helps.
All IMHO & DYOR and if anyone has a different view please post.
And finally, GO CATTERS


----------



## condog (26 February 2011)

philly said:


> Hi Geelongfan, I'll have a go at explaining how I think it works:-
> AUT has its aussie shares listed on the ASX.
> It then issued *additional *shares @ $C1.60 and listed them on the TSX for our canadian investors.
> 
> ...




Good explanation. 

However the bigger players who have transaction accounts on both the ASX and tSX, cna purchase shares here, then sell them in Canada and vice versa, as will the TSX listing promotor. 

Whilst the price on the TSX will not always mimic the price on the ASX, they will be very close, as once they step out of sync enough to make a profit, the big players will move the shares from one registry to the other.

Even AUT itself will imo most likely dabble in cross border transactions when they see money sitting on the table. 

A lot like what happns with BHP and RIO.


----------



## philly (26 February 2011)

condog said:


> Good explanation.
> 
> However the bigger players who have transaction accounts on both the ASX and tSX, cna purchase shares here, then sell them in Canada and vice versa, as will the TSX listing promotor.
> 
> ...




Hi Condog, thanks again.
I'm a bit troubled now .
What is stopping the bigger players who have transaction accounts on both the ASX and TSX  and the TSX listing promotor from raiding the ASX and moving a substantial quantity of AUT shares off shore to the TSX?

You see, before you told me about this cross market trading, I saw the listing on the TSX as a good thing because it gives AUT greater exposure and greater access to funds. However now I'm wondering whether AUT is vulnerable to a T/O led by the Canadians? And also if the number of AUT shares on the ASX decreases substantially because the Canadians are buying up how will that impact on the price and liquidity of AUT on the ASX?
Your comments welcome. Thanks in anticipation


----------



## estseon (26 February 2011)

I'm guessing too, but I don't think that there are compartments for AUT shares.

GMP securities is the TSX market-maker. It will buy up shares offered by Canadian investors and will sell AUT shares to Canadian investors that wish to buy. It will end up the TSX session with a net long or short position.

It might carry that position until the next session or it might stand in the ASX market and square it off before the next TSX session. If it is short and has to deliver stock, it might 'borrow' stock from an institution. 

But that is how the ASX market-makers will work.

If there is more than 1 market-maker for a stock they will square positions between them. In this case, the time zone difference will make things a bit more complicated especially when price sensitive news is released. There is no overlap when both markets are open.

Investors with two accounts, one through TSX and one through ASX, will/may have compartmentalised holdings because there will be different custodians holding the shares. I invest from the UK but the UK broker simply funnels the orders through an Australian firm and the shares are held by an Australian custodian. The UK broker doesn't have the shares. I don't have any direct dealings with the Australian firms.


----------



## condog (26 February 2011)

philly said:


> Hi Condog, thanks again.
> I'm a bit troubled now .
> What is stopping the bigger players who have transaction accounts on both the ASX and TSX  and the TSX listing promotor from raiding the ASX and moving a substantial quantity of AUT shares off shore to the TSX?
> 
> ...




Every company is vulnerable to a take over every day. This really doesnt make us any more or less vulnerable imo. If you own shares you can sell them on the ASX via your broker or you can sell them off market and just submit the paperwork. They are your shares, you can sell them anywhere you want, they just have to have the regestery notiified before the new owner can also onsell to who ever they want where ever they want in what ever currency they want. 

So theoretically yes there might be a raid of shares sold on the TSX. But hey for us holders thats an awesome thing as it limits the supply, but exposes the shares to two markets worth of demand. 

The key thing in any dual listing is "will it create sufficient demand to warrant the extra admin costs and time commitments" So far yes.  Time will tell? 

Some companies its awesome, others regret it or find it useless and they delist and go back to one market.

So far the cashed up resource rich and super annuation rich Canadians have loved our little baby.


----------



## condog (26 February 2011)

A pictures worth a 1000 words - ni night
Something for you all to dream about.


----------



## condog (27 February 2011)

Have a drink tonight and toast AUT's week ahead. Some massive price catalysts to drive AUT in coming weeks. 

The TXS has already shown its hand with a $3.60 high and a $3.50 close. Somehow i think thats just the begginning.

The Reserves report will light a flame of interest for the big players looking to secure forward earnings. 

The news on frac techniques is just massive and the broker reports will all be upgraded as a result of the reserves. 

Should be a huge week imo, not one to spend on the sidelines. 

I also reccomend you cast the net over TXN if your not already in and HOG, which is an intriguing play to say the least. SEA will battle on continuing to add value and imo EKA will continue to climb slowly unitl it either announces significant cash flow, or an accellerated plan or acqusition.


----------



## trader8888 (27 February 2011)

condog said:


> Have a drink tonight and toast AUT's week ahead. Some massive price catalysts to drive AUT in coming weeks.
> 
> The TXS has already shown its hand with a $3.60 high and a $3.50 close. Somehow i think thats just the begginning.
> 
> ...




We should see an operations and production report from sugarloaf, excelsior, ipenema and longhorn, it has been more than 1 month from the last reports. 

I think AUT has done this on purpose, waiting untill we listed on the TSX so all the prospective investores can see our flow rates and rate of development.

Should be a massive week for AUT


----------



## estseon (28 February 2011)

"Should be a massive week for AUT  "

I think that it started on Friday last.

GMP Securities will have egg on its face if the new NPV 10 is not some multiple of the 2010 figure. TEN just cannot be at this stage. Two/Three might be possible depending upon what they are prepared to factor in.

Keep your shields and body armour handy - it could get quite violent out there.


----------



## condog (28 February 2011)

estseon said:


> "
> GMP Securities will have egg on its face if the new NPV 10 is not some multiple of the 2010 figure. TEN just cannot be at this stage. Two/Three might be possible depending upon what they are prepared to factor in.




True - but i think GMP are meaning they forsee a multiple of 10 in due course. As certainly the Austin Chalks will be 4+ years away on the earliest wells. 

So i agree a multiple of 2-4 is possible now. Wells spacing multiples cant occur yet as there has been no proving of this by the operator. The chalks have not been targeted yet. Theres the new frac technique to try. etc etc

So realistically this reserves report will simply show better flows accross the acerage and inclusion of all the aceerage, with a lower risk factor. 

Im sure Jon stewart knows how he can improve reserves on current acerage, and hilcopr as well. They will be embarking on it in a systematic approach using each 6 month period to build flows and reserves. But issues like securing leases will always take precedent over immediately building reserves. Having said that, they know thier charter is to build shareholder value, and they know building reserves is the quickest way to do so, so when spare capital / time is available they will take steps to book some more reserves.

Brace yourselves folks for an exciting week or two.


----------



## Agentm (28 February 2011)

the only regional austin chalk wells i know that went horizontal is the butler well

by regional well i mean within a few miles..

drilled in 1991

the guys i know are related to the landowner, their recollection of that well is that it produced water. it was shut in

there are a few other a bit further away, north and east.. around falls, blackbrush calls it falls austin chalks.. fairly nice production there..


----------



## Magic Man (28 February 2011)

AUT still in pRe Open.. Anouncement time!


----------



## prgudula (28 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> AUT still in pRe Open.. Anouncement time!




http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1495&EID=19627845


----------



## prgudula (28 February 2011)

prgudula said:


> http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1495&EID=19627845





Eagle Ford - Sugarloaf Operations and Production Update


http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1496&EID=83776192


----------



## geelongfan (28 February 2011)

that report was pretty useless. i think they only put it out because so many people were expecting the reserves report this week.

reserves report is another few weeks away and only updated till dec 31st 2011.. lammeeeeee

EDIT : I take that back about the report being useless. It did provide good information on the status of the wells (although the flows were a little low?). I just wanted that reserves report.


----------



## estseon (28 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> the only regional austin chalk wells i know that went horizontal is the butler well
> 
> by regional well i mean within a few miles..
> 
> ...




Agent, isn't Weston in the chalk?

Disappointing that the reserves report isn't out.


----------



## Flipper (28 February 2011)

estseon said:


> Agent, isn't Weston in the chalk?
> 
> Disappointing that the reserves report isn't out.




G'day guys, relatively new to this caper (ASF not AUT  ).
Was just wondering whether the delay in the release of the reserves report
is likely to adversely affect the sp considering investors were expecting it this week?


----------



## Sharejon (28 February 2011)

I thought the Production Update today was great, and here is why.

1. Very good declines for Kowalik and Urrutia
2. Good to see Direct Assets finally flowing, even if the flow-rate might seem disappointing. This was expected though really, considering how long it took for the repairs to be finalised.
3. It is good to see Hollman being fracced now and advancements to the drilling of Jordan as well.
4. We have received the information about the up and coming PMT and Buehring wells

The reserves upgrade will come, just be patient.

It was interesting to see that Gilley-1H was left out of the announcent. Maybe it was just because no progress has been made yet?

I think we should receive another sugarloaf update in 2 or so weeks time, with progress on Hollman, Jordan, PMT and Buehring so I expect we'll see something there about Gilley.


----------



## Magic Man (28 February 2011)

I was just watching the market and all stocks are showing inquiry. Did the Market close early today anyone?


----------



## geelongfan (28 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I was just watching the market and all stocks are showing inquiry. Did the Market close early today anyone?




the asx is down.. i just called commsec cause i was trying to execute a buy on another stock and it didn't go through..


----------



## philly (28 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> the asx is down.. i just called commsec cause i was trying to execute a buy on another stock and it didn't go through..




Trading glitch stalls ASX February 28, 2011 - 4:18PM

Australia's sharemarket halted trading more than an hour early today because of a technical glitch involving its new trading system.

The market effectively froze at about 2.48pm, east coast summer time, when confirmation of some trades failed to be sent as normal, prompting authorities to close the market, said ASX spokesman Matthew Gibbs.

"We are working to rectify the problem," Mr Gibbs said, adding that the market may be reopened later today if time permits.


----------



## Magic Man (28 February 2011)

Hey guys.

Pretty unusual day today wth the asx closing early due to a technical glitch. I was looking forward to seeing AUT maybe run up a little towards the close after having a good opening and then stabalising for alot of the day. I think the market may have expected a little more with the news, but as someone has already said it was  pretty good result. Looking frwd to the next announcement. As for the rest SEA started well but there must ahve been some serious profit taking for it to drop 4Cents, looking frwd to an update from them soon and HOG had a pretty good day, hopefully will break out in the near term, but looking for a little pullback to jump in again. TXN still suffering from the CR maybe. Thoughts? Hopefully a good day tomorrow!


----------



## estseon (28 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> the only regional austin chalk wells i know that went horizontal is the butler well
> 
> by regional well i mean within a few miles..
> 
> ...




Extract from Empyrean 2010 Report and Accounts (page 9) re Weston:

"The operation involved fraccing the entire 3,000 ft of horizontal section in the “Upper” Austin Chalk. It was carried out in 13 separate stages with an isolation plug set between each stage interval.

During the first 5 days the average production rate measured 5.68 mmcfgpd and 414
bcpd equating to 12.1 mmcfgepd.

The initial 60 day average production rate was 11.4 mmcfgepd."

The 30 day average was 11.5 mmcfgepd (EME RNS 25 March 2010)

Decline from 30 day to 60 day: 1%

Decline from IP to 60 day average: 6%

Nice well!


----------



## condog (28 February 2011)

Good update today, extremely good declines imo. Very happy with AUT. Not happy with ASX, clsoing early and on the back of a speeding ticket. ##It happens, oh well.


----------



## trader8888 (28 February 2011)

condog said:


> Good update today, extremely good declines imo. Very happy with AUT. Not happy with ASX, clsoing early and on the back of a speeding ticket. ##It happens, oh well.




Yeah its been a bit of a momentum killer, very good report out today noticed their using the 6:1 ratio now, which would have helped the declines figures.

Longhorn, Ipenema and excelsior production and operations update should be out soon as well. Im not to phased about waiting a few more weeks for the reserves upgrade. 

Might be a tough day tomorrow though, europe getting hammered again, US futures down and OIL up.


----------



## condog (1 March 2011)

DJIA and Europe finished ok .

Looking at the volumes to me it looks like we cleared the early $3 mark of seller and weve hit the new resistance in the 20's which will soon dry up imo before we run again. 
Clearly the reserve report will be a huge catalyst, but i reckon the sellers will dry up before the reserves report and we will be in the 40's or 50s in a week or two time. 

I wouldnt put my house on it, but weve seen this repetitive post CR resistance several times ...


----------



## newry (1 March 2011)

condog said:


> DJIA and Europe finished ok .
> 
> Looking at the volumes to me it looks like we cleared the early $3 mark of seller and weve hit the new resistance in the 20's which will soon dry up imo before we run again.
> Clearly the reserve report will be a huge catalyst, but i reckon the sellers will dry up before the reserves report and we will be in the 40's or 50s in a week or two time.
> ...




Nothing negative about this chart Condog and I concur completely.


----------



## geelongfan (1 March 2011)

my take is that the SP will drop down to around 3.10 over the next couple of weeks before ramping up again before the reserves.. could be a good time to top up if it dips anywhere from 3.00-3.10.. just my opinion i.e. guess


----------



## basilio (1 March 2011)

Have we ever wondered on the insights of industry share analysts and their strike rate.?

I was  having a look at Huntleys take on HOG recently. All very good and positive.  At the end of the report Huntley noted their position on many other oil and gas explorers. as well as mineral and industrial stock. Almost all were Buy, Hold or Speculative Buy.

*The only one with a REDUCE tag was, yes, AUT.  The report was dated Jan 11 2011 and AUT was $2.41 at that stage.*

http://www.hawkleyoilandgas.com//me...s-research-note-104/Hawkley-research-note.pdf


----------



## tradefill (1 March 2011)

I have been following ASF threads for a while now and finally decided to create an account. I want to thank all the posters for their valuable input. Condog especially- your posts are very insightful. I was around for adi and hold aut, sea, hog, eka. 
Hopefully the aut reserves report comes soon and we get another run!


----------



## trader8888 (1 March 2011)

basilio said:


> Have we ever wondered on the insights of industry share analysts and their strike rate.?
> 
> I was  having a look at Huntleys take on HOG recently. All very good and positive.  At the end of the report Huntley noted their position on many other oil and gas explorers. as well as mineral and industrial stock. Almost all were Buy, Hold or Speculative Buy.
> 
> ...




They are the only one with a reduce tag on AUT.

We have 3 other analysts covering AUT all with a buy recommendation-
EUROZ - $3.60 Valuation
GMP - $3.85 Valuation
COMMONWEALTH - $3.45 Valuation

Hartleys also had reduce on AUT at around $1.60 lol, Im glad i can think for myself.


----------



## estseon (1 March 2011)

EKA produced a decent presentation. We've got used to AUT saying that 3p reserves will be recategorised by the end of the year but the figures in EKA's presentation suggest that the 3p reserves for the Sugarloaf ami may be recategorised as 2p by the end of the month. Also, the Sugarloaf leases should be 70% held by production by the end of September.


----------



## condog (1 March 2011)

basilio said:


> *The only one with a REDUCE tag was, yes, AUT.  The report was dated Jan 11 2011 and AUT was $2.41 at that stage.*




Just goes to show you got to be careful following brokers blindly trusting them, thats a big opportunity cost to its customers a 50% increase when they are suggesting reduce. Poor form at best.  

Its also a very good reason why its often best to use broker consensus or broker average. 3 recomending buys with valuations from $3.45 to $3.85, and one stating a reduce . That to me says its a buy with an average of $3.32

Then do your own valuations to confirm and bob's your uncle.


----------



## Sharejon (2 March 2011)

On page 11 it says "Likely that 3P reserves will be converted to 2P by years end" and "2P reserves anticipated to substantially increase in next reserves report".

A fantastic EKA presentation though, easily my favourite presentation from the company.


----------



## condog (2 March 2011)

*International Energy Agency confirms peak oil was in 2006  * - 3 hours ago

The Energy Watch Group (EWG) has reiterated its warning that the highpoint of conventional worldwide oil exploitation had been reached in 2006 and said that with its "World Energy Outlook 2010", the International Energy Agency (IEA) expressly endorsed this conclusion for the very first time, corroborating that the production of crude oil *will never again achieve the 2006 level.* 
The agency, made up of 28 OECD countries, represents the governmental interests of the largest "Western" energy consuming nations.

In a comprehensive 2007 study, the Energy Watch Group's scientists explained why "after attaining this maximum production, there is a very high probability that in the coming twenty years – *by 2030 – annual output of crude oil will halve."* 
From
http://www.tandlnews.com.au/2011/03...confirms-peak-oil-was-in-2006/IQBSBIVVOT.html

Looks to me as govts worldwide snooze on the implementation of renewable energy implementation, thers going to be one hell of an oil price spike at some point. Heavy users are going to have to continually purchase forward contracts, for decades into the future to ensure supply.


----------



## trader8888 (2 March 2011)

condog said:


> *International Energy Agency confirms peak oil was in 2006  * - 3 hours ago
> 
> The Energy Watch Group (EWG) has reiterated its warning that the highpoint of conventional worldwide oil exploitation had been reached in 2006 and said that with its "World Energy Outlook 2010", the International Energy Agency (IEA) expressly endorsed this conclusion for the very first time, corroborating that the production of crude oil *will never again achieve the 2006 level.*
> The agency, made up of 28 OECD countries, represents the governmental interests of the largest "Western" energy consuming nations.
> ...




Yeah condog, their is no doubt that the price of oil and any form of energy for that matter are only heading one way. But the question is can the world survive on ever increasing energy prices, its getting very tough for families and businesses ATM. 

Is something big going to happen that will kurb the growth of oil consumtion?? pretty worrying stuff


----------



## geelongfan (2 March 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Is something big going to happen that will kurb the growth of oil consumtion?? pretty worrying stuff




not with energy demands expected to double by 2050.. that being said.. the increased consumption every year cannot solely keep up with more oil imo.. that's a big reason why so many companies (shell, exxon etc) have pumped billions into renewable resources.


----------



## condog (2 March 2011)

Imagine being a shipping, trucking or airline company, and having to secure oil futures to ensure you can continue your business. Someones going to miss out on oil, who will it bee and how much are they willing to pay. cause thats the baseline for future oil prices.

I know i will be willing to buy petrol at any price, but obviously i will have to cut back use to the level i can afford. Likewise many millions of people. It wont be us who misses out , it will be poorer countries that will be wiped form the face of the earth, with no fuel to produce food, transport food etc etc. 

Its a sickening thought really. Ideal for oil stocks, but horrible for humanity.

If i was a western govt , like Australia,  i think i would be investing heavily in renewable and non black carbon fuels to ensure the viability of the nation going forward rather then applying an ill concieved tax for the redistribution of wealth from middle income earners to bludgers.

Every house would have solar and every bus would be on natural gas. Id be building bus lanes and two way rail lines for mass transport on green energy rather then new freways for single and double passenger vehicles, that only add to congestion and produce high per passenger black carbon pollution. .

Well worth a read


http://www.smh.com.au/environment/c...tants-would-halve-warming-20110224-1b77n.html


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> not with energy demands expected to double by 2050.. that being said.. the increased consumption every year cannot solely keep up with more oil imo.. that's a big reason why so many companies (shell, exxon etc) have pumped billions into renewable resources.




nothing to worry about, these companies already know how to sustain ourselves on renewable energy, they have bought out every idea and once oil does run low they will still remain the global players. I wouldn't be to concerned condog. I would be concerned in another 15 odd years changing from your oil shares to renewable energy stock. The people who control the majority of the wealth/power in the world already have this all mapped out so that they retain wealth/power.


----------



## shanti (2 March 2011)

"Every house would have solar and every bus would be on natural gas. Id be building bus lanes and two way rail lines for mass transport on green energy rather then new freways for single and double passenger vehicles, that only add to congestion and produce high per passenger black carbon pollution. .

Well worth a read


http://www.smh.com.au/environment/c...tants-would-halve-warming-20110224-1b77n.html[/QUOTE]"

Great post Condog, 
if only the wisdom and courage to act were there and less dinosaurs amongst politicians 
great things could be achieved. Aut well positioned to draw on its gas reserves when transition to cleaner energy begins.


----------



## sparkie (2 March 2011)

most likely they will just start releasing this guys inventions!




great thread btw!!! wish I picked up AUT sooner!!


----------



## AngusSmart (2 March 2011)

Nikola Tesla.. the true genius!! he did so much yet was so unknown!



I've just put one of my cars onto E85.. 90 more hp, more timing, double the boost, no more detonation worries, still get 300-450 out of a 55l tank (right foot dependent)

whod have known you could run your car on 85% sugar..

now i am really hedging my bets with oil


----------



## poverty (3 March 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> whod have known you could run your car on 85% sugar..




It's a great solution, the poor starve so we can keep driving and we get peak food AND peak oil


----------



## condog (3 March 2011)

Update out
60 day flows for Turnbull 4 and incredible 1278boepd
Franke 60 day flow 759

Sienkewiecks 30 day flows at  796 boepd

first well on Excelsior spudded which will be very interresting.

All great news for AUT.


----------



## estseon (4 March 2011)

poverty said:


> It's a great solution, the poor starve so we can keep driving and we get peak food AND peak oil




And the remaining forests will be cut down to replace the productive acreage being used inefficiently to grow biofuels. Sounds like a solution that is sufficiently daft to be attractive to politicians and the media.

So, the poor starve anyway because they can't afford the prices, and the developed economies + China soak up all of the resources whilst the planet becomes covered with agriculture and cities.

Better not to dwell on the future. Whilst global population is allowed to escalate there is a disaster waiting in the scenes to happen.

On the home front, the dribbling away of the AUT price is a bit dispiriting but there's not much volume. The TSX price at the time of posting is up at $3.23 but volume is only 221k. I suspect that there may have been some top-slicing to invest in other stocks.

Despite the cold water poured by AUT on the possibility of higher EURs, its December quarterly report contains a comment on the disparity between EURs used by EOG and those used last July for wells in the oil window. EOG is using a figure about 23% greater.

CMG also pointed to the 'uphole Austin Chalks' potential, implying that the valuation does not currently reflect the reservoir that TCEI said at first that it was targeting. And, there must be some uplift in the assumed price of oil. Well worth holding firm until the publication, in my view.


----------



## shanti (4 March 2011)

poverty said:


> It's a great solution, the poor starve so we can keep driving and we get peak food AND peak oil




I thought ethanol was a biproduct of sugar production (not taking anything from the hungry). Might be wrong, please correct me. 
In any case petrol stations not selling blends in Melbourne. To be precise I suspect there's got to be some selling somewhere but I haven't seen it in years (Southern Metro). Not like other States.


----------



## AngusSmart (4 March 2011)

Corn, sugar, potatoes and more others.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (4 March 2011)

shanti said:


> I thought ethanol was a biproduct of sugar production (not taking anything from the hungry). Might be wrong, please correct me.
> In any case petrol stations not selling blends in Melbourne. To be precise I suspect there's got to be some selling somewhere but I haven't seen it in years (Southern Metro). Not like other States.




United Petroleum servos sell unleaded petrol-ethanol blends in Melbourne.  I regularly fill up my car with blended petrol at a United servo primarily because they're consistently cheaper than most other petrol servos.


----------



## golfmos123 (4 March 2011)

shanti said:


> I thought ethanol was a biproduct of sugar production (not taking anything from the hungry). Might be wrong, please correct me.
> In any case petrol stations not selling blends in Melbourne. To be precise I suspect there's got to be some selling somewhere but I haven't seen it in years (Southern Metro). Not like other States.




Ethanol in Australia is either made by CSR (Sucrogen if you prefer) from molasses (a byproduct of the sugar manufacturing process which does not impact on food vs fuel debates) or by Manildra from wheat starch which you could argue takes something out of the food bowl.

Either way, future ethanol production is going to be based on plant sources which are not foods, so it will be a dead argument eventually IMHO.


----------



## bennywizard (4 March 2011)

Either way, future ethanol production is going to be based on plant sources which are not foods, so it will be a dead argument eventually IMHO.[/QUOTE]

However the land that that is used to grow anything inedible or or for fuel is land that COULD have been used to grow edible crops, so unless you can use otherwise unusable land that does not require irrigation it does not seem to be such a great plan.

Re AUT share price, its looking to be an excellent top up opportunity, so close to the major reserves announcement that should see us crack $3.50 by the end of march
Just an opinion of course but I'll be surprised if it does not happen. Interesting to see EKA up today, presumably in anticipation of the same reserves report.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (4 March 2011)

bennywizard said:


> Either way, future ethanol production is going to be based on plant sources which are not foods, so it will be a dead argument eventually IMHO.




However the land that that is used to grow anything inedible or or for fuel is land that COULD have been used to grow edible crops, so unless you can use otherwise unusable land that does not require irrigation it does not seem to be such a great plan.

Re AUT share price, its looking to be an excellent top up opportunity, so close to the major reserves announcement that should see us crack $3.50 by the end of march
Just an opinion of course but I'll be surprised if it does not happen. Interesting to see EKA up today, presumably in anticipation of the same reserves report.[/QUOTE]

Very true... everything AUT comes close to $3 again to surges back to $3.30+ to make a new high... just check the charts.. I see this as a top up too and if I had a spare few grand I would chuck it in the mix again. Still like condog has said.. lots of good news coming


----------



## dashwood (4 March 2011)

Hope we aren't seeing a spate of buy on the ASX and sell on TSX .Seems to be a fair disparity between the prices and with one stand out seller on TSX by look of it. Not sure why EKA should see the benefit of a pre-empting of report when AUT doesn't!
Holding for now but the excitement is waning. Aut price looking like a cyclic roller-coaster this month if with a slight up trend.


----------



## condog (5 March 2011)

Consolidation is very healthy, the reserves report will trigger a spate of buying imo to a new high. yesterdays update which was brilliant was ignored, the TSX listing so far hasnt been a price trigger, but it has fomred a good resistance for canadian buyers above the $3.12 mark.


----------



## Sharejon (5 March 2011)

I think EKA was just making up for lost ground, due too it lagging considerably over the last few months.

Also if it was due to the up and coming reserves report, the talk about AUT's reserves report has been going on for a long time now, and only in the recent presentation has EKA eluded to this.

Maybe some less knowledgable investors were not aware of the reserves report affecting EKA.

Hopefully the reserves report can be released late by friday this week or early the week after. It should certainly give AUT/EKA a move along from the current prices.


----------



## condog (5 March 2011)

Sharejon said:


> I think EKA was just making up for lost ground, due too it lagging considerably over the last few months.
> 
> Also if it was due to the up and coming reserves report, the talk about AUT's reserves report has been going on for a long time now, and only in the recent presentation has EKA eluded to this.
> 
> ...




Yeh it should certainly provoke some action on the big end of town, to whoom reserves mean everything. A companies reserves are its lifeline to the future.....


----------



## estseon (5 March 2011)

There seems to be a correlation between volume and share price surges. The Step ups in price are driven by buying whereas the drifting down is on the back of volume of less than 50% of that driving the surges. It suggests that a proportion of the buying is by investors who are happy to hold until the real value starts to become reflected in the price.

There were Canadians buying at C$3.60 on the first day of trading on TSX.


----------



## condog (7 March 2011)

Tw new well apps in 

Best Huth Unit

Best Fenner Unit


----------



## condog (7 March 2011)

Very profitable wells at these prices, also drmatically reduces well repayment times and NPV per well. 

Also the last few 60 day flows have been significantly higher then the average. I had my model based on 450 average flow. Bumping that up to 500 and the condensate price up to $100 per boc, i get valuations north of $8 for end of 2011. Could be wrong , time will tell.

DYOR and seek good advice , if you can find it.


----------



## geelongfan (7 March 2011)

aut is running out of steam.. i think we will see it down at around 2.90 this week


----------



## Mister Mark (7 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> aut is running out of steam.. i think we will see it down at around 2.90 this week




I have thought a few times in the past that it is running out of steam and each time it has come back bigger and better with a great anouncement.


----------



## ob1kinobi (7 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> aut is running out of steam.. i think we will see it down at around 2.90 this week




Hi GLF, 

I think we need a bit of context. 

Yes, 2.90 has been the support on five occasions so yes that is the logical level of support.

I also agree the SP is showing weakness. 

However I also know that this is your first ever share purchase, and if your orginal purchase was at 3.22 then that you are currently sitting on a loss.

Please feel free to correct me and the forum if I happen to be wrong.

OB1


----------



## trader8888 (7 March 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> Hi GLF,
> 
> I think we need a bit of context.
> 
> ...





Just look at the market, this combined with a bit of disappopitment with the late reserves report and you get a mix of impatient and nervous sellers, IMO thats all we are seeing here. Once the updated reserves report is realeased all off this will be forgoton IMO.

For anyone that did'nt know, last reserves report have no 1P resrerves for Ipanema and very very small 2P and 3P reserves, so on that factor alone we should see a very nice rise in reserves.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (7 March 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Just look at the market, this combined with a bit of disappopitment with the late reserves report and you get a mix of impatient and nervous sellers, IMO thats all we are seeing here. Once the updated reserves report is realeased all off this will be forgoton IMO.
> 
> For anyone that did'nt know, last reserves report have no 1P resrerves for Ipanema and very very small 2P and 3P reserves, so on that factor alone we should see a very nice rise in reserves.




Expecting another surge back to the $3.30 mark again very soon. If it doesn't happy this week I will be topping up again.. if it does I'll hold and wait for the next chance.


----------



## geelongfan (7 March 2011)

i fail to see your point? is it that people who are currently at a loss on a stock can't post on the forum?
yes i purchased at 3.22. i'm holding and intend to until after the next reserves report. i have purchased a few other stocks also since then, should i PM you on how they have gone as well? lol

if you want context go back and read what i said..

which was simply aut is showing signs of a downtrend over the coming week.. if you want even more context read my post a few days ago where i said that it may go down to 3.00 and that would make it a prime opportunity to top up.. 






ob1kinobi said:


> Hi GLF,
> 
> I think we need a bit of context.
> 
> ...


----------



## ob1kinobi (7 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> i fail to see your point? is it that people who are currently at a loss on a stock can't post on the forum?
> yes i purchased at 3.22. i'm holding and intend to until after the next reserves report. i have purchased a few other stocks also since then, should i PM you on how they have gone as well? lol
> 
> if you want context go back and read what i said..
> ...




My point is that as you are a self confessed 'noob' others readers need to bear this in mind.

Nothing more nothing less. Just context for others readers of the thread. 

To avoid confusion perhaps in future you could provide your analysis as above, rather than posting commments such as 'running out of steam.' 

I think your TA analysis above is more helpful than said comment.


----------



## Tuckertime (7 March 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> My point is that as you are a self confessed 'noob' others readers need to bear this in mind.
> 
> Nothing more nothing less. Just context for others readers of the thread.
> 
> ...





While I agree that baseless "ZOMG DUMP YOUR INVESTMENT WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF STEAM" comments have no place in this forum I think the fact that he is a "self confessed noob" means we should be a tad less hostile  haha

That said given the data on the reserves I don't think this fall in SP is such a concern, rather an opportunity to top up ^_^ I know I will especially if it falls below 3.


----------



## Magic Man (7 March 2011)

How about a hug... we are an AUT family!


----------



## Mister Mark (7 March 2011)

Magic Man said:


> How about a hug... we are an AUT family!




Very good Magic Man, was trying to add to your comment but you have said it all, very funny but to the point, lol


----------



## geelongfan (7 March 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> To avoid confusion perhaps in future you could provide your analysis as above, rather than posting commments such as 'running out of steam.'





that's all you had to say


----------



## condog (7 March 2011)

Its a period of consolidation. Do the sums on $100+ boc and better then expected 60 day flows which weve seen lately and $3 looks very very cheap either that or towards end of 2011, we are going to have a very very steep sp climb. 

All opinion so DYOR. Ive got it valued at $7+ end of 2011, if oil stays up and results continue as we have seen lately. If you then add new Hi Tech frac method we can add a whole bunch more.


----------



## estseon (7 March 2011)

Things are bound to be twitchy with such potentially significant news just waiting to be released. The Board will have to get some control over NCAI or find a valuer that can deliver on time. AUT has said that future reports will be included in results announcements so they'll need to instil a bit of discipline into those guys.

The problem is that the current price is probably looking beyond the last valuation anyway. The market is aware of some of the variables and aware of some of the potential upgrade to NPV10 of 3P. What the market doesn't know is how much can be built into the valuation at this time.

And we have had mixed signals. On the one hand, EOG has been booking EURs for its wells near Longhorn about 20% higher than NCAI's 2010 figure but on the other AUT has warned not to expect significant upgrades at this time. Possibly, AUT was responding to the HiWay excitement.

The Board should have had a few choice words with CMG Securities as well - talking about the potential of 10 fold increase in reserves is a good way of ensuring a interesting start to trading on the TSX but seems to be a bit reckless at a time when they may have inside information and there is a valuation in progress.

One thing that they did say or suggest is that nothing may have been taken in for the overlying Austin Chalk reservoir. Only Weston is in the chalk. Kowalik 1 was but they re-drilled that. Kowalik 1 had good IPs but TCEI drilled it under-pressured, finished with slotted liner and failed to clean it up afterwards. So, there could be a lot to add at a later date with Hilcorp on the job but their main drilling at the moment seems to be aimed at securing the leases.


----------



## shanti (7 March 2011)

In regards to share price anyone seriously concerned about further turmoil in the Middle East? I haven't taken any profits along the way, (bought first little parcel @37c and topped up at SPP) I have full confidance in AUT but all this political unrest gives me the spooks (a little).
Would love to hear your opinions. Thank you in advance


----------



## geelongfan (7 March 2011)

estseon said:


> And we have had mixed signals. On the one hand, EOG has been booking EURs for its wells near Longhorn about 20% higher than NCAI's 2010 figure but on the other AUT has warned not to expect significant upgrades at this time. Possibly, AUT was responding to the HiWay excitement.




great post..

i definitely don't think we will see anything in the reserves to do with the HiWay technology. the reserves report is only covering information till Dec 2010.


----------



## prgudula (8 March 2011)

Eagle Ford Shale - Sugarkane Field Reserves Update

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1502&EID=61814551


----------



## Magic Man (8 March 2011)

Condog and others cant wait to here your thoughts on the reserves report just announced
A further 60 wells planned during 2011, management anticipate the majority of the 
possible reserves will be transferred into the 2P category by year end. 

60 wells.. Sounds very impressive.


----------



## Magic Man (8 March 2011)

Oh Condog. How does something like this rate to bigger players such as Oil Search?


----------



## prgudula (8 March 2011)

Investor presentation

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1503&EID=27408623


----------



## condog (8 March 2011)

Fantastic reserves upgrade imo. 

Cant wait to see what the brokers put on it now. 

Big end of town will love that.


----------



## basilio (8 March 2011)

Great reserves announcement  -- and AUT is down 8c on the day (so far) !!  Seems like buy the rumour and sell the fact.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (8 March 2011)

basilio said:


> Great reserves announcement  -- and AUT is down 8c on the day (so far) !!  Seems like buy the rumour and sell the fact.



Down 11c (so far) and just topped up @ $2.92.


----------



## majorca (8 March 2011)

Must agree just picked up 15000 at 2.92 myself, knowing my judgement someone will declare war somewhere else that supplies .00001 % of the worlds oil supply that will set off another round of speculation and we will stick all our money under the mattress again based on .......................... I am not giving them back.


----------



## condog (9 March 2011)

Reserves & Value Upside
* Internal estimates other than for Aurora where NSAI estimates per
August 2010 report used
Acreage not included in reserve calculation
 The NSAI reserve report is based on a diagrammatical 80 acre development plan. Where 80 acre
units cannot be drawn, eg close to the edge of acreage, that acreage is not included in the
calculation. 10-15% of Aurora’s acreage is not drilled by the assumed NSAI program. In practice
this is overcome via land trades and shared wells via unitisation with neighbours
Transition of Reserves
 The 60 well program this year will shift the majority of the possible reserves into the proven and
probable category by year end.
Higher liquids cut
 Initial wells are proving to have higher liquids
cuts which may increase the NPV’s per well.
Outperformance of Type Curves
 IP rates are strong and the choking back of
the more recent wells, with the objective of
flattening decline reserves, could lead to
improved EURs and per well valuations.
Spacing
 The current reserve report and drilling
inventory is based on 80 acre spacing and
competitors in the area are now looking at
development on 60 acre spacing. In other
more developed shale plays 40 acre spaces
are being used or tested.

Indicating Plenty More Upside IMO.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 March 2011)

condog said:


> Reserves & Value Upside
> * Internal estimates other than for Aurora where NSAI estimates per
> August 2010 report used
> Acreage not included in reserve calculation
> ...




When will we see another evaluation by Euroz condog?


----------



## dashwood (9 March 2011)

mmmh at current sp asx (3.50pm) to tsx (close) trading likely to bring in 5% ! hope this listing is the big plus everyone predicted value wise. Need a good bit of publicity singing the potential tune about now.


----------



## AngusSmart (9 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> When will we see another evaluation by Euroz condog?




probably tomorrow or friday..


----------



## bbker (9 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> When will we see another evaluation by Euroz condog?




Today. It has a target price of $4.50 a share.

And of course the recommendation is to buy.


----------



## condog (9 March 2011)

I expected it today, but they must be busy. Looks like tommorrow. It should be a significant read.


----------



## bbker (9 March 2011)

condog said:


> I expected it today, but they must be busy. Looks like tommorrow. It should be a significant read.




Oh so that target price in today's weekly was just taken from the last quarterly.


----------



## AngusSmart (9 March 2011)

Check your mails Condog..


----------



## Simon29 (9 March 2011)

bbker said:


> Today. It has a target price of $4.50 a share.
> 
> And of course the recommendation is to buy.




So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated 

simo644 at hotmail dot com

Thanks in advance!


----------



## mir (9 March 2011)

"So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated" 

no, it was by GMP


----------



## kennyhunter (9 March 2011)

Simon29 said:


> So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated
> 
> simo644 at hotmail dot com
> 
> Thanks in advance!




Can I have a copy mailed to me as well?

pberregi dot iext at gmail dot com

Thanks


----------



## Simon29 (9 March 2011)

mir said:


> "So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated"
> 
> no, it was by GMP




Thanks, mir


----------



## mir (9 March 2011)

"So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated" 

"no, it was by GMP"

both EUROZ & GMP have put $4.50 on AUT


----------



## trader8888 (9 March 2011)

mir said:


> "So was this an updated target by Euroz put out today then? If anyone has the report would they be able to email it to me? It would be greatly appreciated"
> 
> "no, it was by GMP"
> 
> both EUROZ & GMP have put $4.50 on AUT




Mir could you please foward me a copy as well, cheers.


----------



## mir (9 March 2011)

trader8888
"Mir could you please foward me a copy as well, cheers." 
where to


----------



## estseon (10 March 2011)

I reckon that AUT must rank as the most unexciting way of making 5x (or more) over the next 2 years.

Cashed up, zero exploration risk, zero political risk, local market, huge potential upside, $1bn company, 2 listings, a Board very active in marketing and a transparent business.

And now we have its brokers giving a +50% target price - I've lost count of the number of price targets that the company has crashed through.


----------



## condog (10 March 2011)

> From Euroz
> 
> Comments Price Target: $4.50/sh
> We view the key drivers to AUT’s relative outperformance in the oil and gas sector a function of consistency of results as well as a demonstration of
> ...




WOW a 50% upgrade on target over the current sp. If this doenst trigger some buying and new highs i will be amazed.


----------



## trader8888 (10 March 2011)

mir said:


> trader8888
> "Mir could you please foward me a copy as well, cheers."
> where to




Whoops, ausgolfballs@bigpond.com

Cheers


----------



## Magic Man (10 March 2011)

Hmmm I was always comfortable holding this with a support level of 2.90 which has been tested 3 times. Today thats been broken all the way to 2.81 and the volume is disgraceful to say the least, Im still hugely keen on the stock but if it closes below 2.90 are the technical s getting the better of it??

Dont gte me wrong still like the stock just confused as to why the down trend.


----------



## estseon (10 March 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Hmmm I was always comfortable holding this with a support level of 2.90 which has been tested 3 times. Today thats been broken all the way to 2.81 and the volume is disgraceful to say the least, Im still hugely keen on the stock but if it closes below 2.90 are the technical s getting the better of it??
> 
> Dont gte me wrong still like the stock just confused as to why the down trend.




Could be that some investors were waiting for the reserves report to topslice and re-invest: the share has had a thundering rise in quite a short time. The NCAI report is disappointing in that it seems to be stuck in a regulated and possibly outdated valuation basis - the 80 acre spacing, for instance. When the general consensus of the oil companies in the area is that denser drilling is a more appropriate assumption, the valuation departs from reality.

TXN suggested that the assumptions made result in about 5% recovery. In other shale fields they are looking at a much higher figure (in one article posted on HC a figure of 40%, or 8x the figure assumed, was being suggested). This is the result of technology but the regulation bashers have yet to catch up.

So, nothing has happened apart from a delay before the true value of the reserves can be officially recognised. Whilst there is argument for standardised valuation criteria for valuations for comparisons, it merely means that all relevant companies are undervalued to the same extent. 

Both brokers increased their target prices. They're close to the company and Euroz, I believe, has made a site visit and were pretty impressed with the Hilcorp operation.

I'd guess that it's rebalancing of portfolios delayed until after the reserves valuation. In Canada, it might be speculators closing out after being stampeded in by CMG's initial story of a 10-fold increase in reserves in time. But how much time? Not before NCAI can tick the relevant boxes. Hilcorp is drilling to secure leases not to tick boxes. Securing the leases must take priority.


----------



## Sdajii (10 March 2011)

Wow! Spectacular buying opportunity if I ever saw one!  Looks to me like a lot of people were waiting for the reserves upgrade (which was great) before selling. The upgrade came out, the traders sold, the market overall is looking poor over the last couple of days so people are spooked, and the price is low.

Price target of $4.50 and a share price under $2.90! On some stocks that may not be too meaningful, but on this one it's awesome! People selling out under $3 will be kicking themselves for not waiting a few weeks to get $3.20+, maybe $3.50, or $3.50-$4 if they wanted to wait a few months.

Unfortunately I don't have a lot of spare money at the moment but I've topped up this morning with what I could afford. Not much, but oh well!

Good luck to all buyers/holders


----------



## jetblack (10 March 2011)

Not wishing to cause a stir but just going by T/A there is a good chance AUT will test around the $2.50 level, comming off that double top, the support was around that $2.90 level , maybe today confirms this. Only my opinion.


----------



## Assasin (10 March 2011)

Magic Man,
        I think you may have to put these in a drawer for 2 months while things settle down, Libya, oil price, etc.
       The thing I'm looking at today is what else would you put money into that is safer than AUT. With recent upgrading of reserves, huge derisking, higher valuations and with so many wells to begin.
       Very difficult to diversify when there's so much action in the EFS.
        Good Luck

  Holding: AUT, SEA, EKA, TXN, HOG, MHM


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (10 March 2011)

Hmmm plenty of sellers at the moment. Perhaps Thursday is the new Friday - with a public holiday on Monday, are people thinking of taking a long-long-weekend and taking profits today?

Might just have to buy another small parcel.


----------



## shanti (10 March 2011)

Activating many a stop loss triggers on the way must be compounding the situation


----------



## Sdajii (10 March 2011)

shanti said:


> Activating many a stop loss triggers on the way must be compounding the situation




Absolutely! I think that's a fair chunk of the explanation  Look at the chart, look what happens every time AUT has a dip, look at the fundamentals, including the recent news, opening in Canada, etc etc. Awesome stuff!


----------



## AngusSmart (10 March 2011)

shanti said:


> Activating many a stop loss triggers on the way must be compounding the situation




one of my small holdings got hit..


----------



## dashwood (10 March 2011)

this isn't about aut only have to construct a 'watchlist' to see all non-aussi based oil is fairing badly. I imagine this couldn't have been a worse time to try and get good news releases across!


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 March 2011)

dashwood said:


> this isn't about aut only have to construct a 'watchlist' to see all non-aussi based oil is fairing badly. I imagine this couldn't have been a worse time to try and get good news releases across!




Now down to $2.77....amazing hey... there must be another story we aren't hearing?? Oil is going great and AUT is going great fundamentally... why people rushing off? 6 times more volume of sellers. :S Really weird. When should we plunge more money in?


----------



## WRONG'UN (10 March 2011)

Forget the good fundamentals, today the sp is in the hands of the stop losses below the multi-touch support level of 2.90. It's such an obvious place to put a stop loss, I wouldn't be surprised if the sp rebounds when enough people have been booted out of their holding - a failed breakdown. We shall see!


----------



## Magic Man (10 March 2011)

Does anyone foresee the general market falling to 4500? we are in a big down trend at the moment? This may effect the stock?

Condog do you still have you $7+ price target come christmas?


----------



## bbker (10 March 2011)

WRONG'UN said:


> Forget the good fundamentals, today the sp is in the hands of the stop losses below the multi-touch support level of 2.90. It's such an obvious place to put a stop loss, I wouldn't be surprised if the sp rebounds when enough people have been booted out of their holding - a failed breakdown. We shall see!




Would it be reasonable to set a buy at $2.50 or is that ridiculous? (no dickheadery intended)

Yes I think the stop-loss triggers which also contributes to panic selling, which in turn restarts the whole downward spiral


----------



## nioka (10 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Now down to $2.77....amazing hey... there must be another story we aren't hearing?? Oil is going great and AUT is going great fundamentally... why people rushing off? 6 times more volume of sellers. :S Really weird. When should we plunge more money in?




AUT, along with the stockmarket in general, is caught up in the overall grand plan that is designed to transfer wealth from the general savings of the average "joe" to a few who insist that they alone have the right to wealth. Part of that plan is to encourage you to borrow from them for investment purposes then use your stop loss, which you are told is necessary to protect your savings, to buy from you at a discounted price and sell back to you again when they decide to pump the stock market again.

How to avoid the trap; 

1. Dont borrow to invest.
2. Dont set a stop loss.
3. Don't think you can outsmart the system without resolve.
4. If the fundamentals are sound. Hold.
5. Lemming rushes are there from time to time and usually are buying opportunities but only when used in conjunction with 1 to 4.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (10 March 2011)

nioka said:


> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> 1. Dont borrow to invest.
> 2. Dont set a stop loss.
> ...



1. Check.
2. Check.
3. Check.
4. Check. And bought more at $2.70
5. Check.

Good advice nioka.


----------



## skyQuake (10 March 2011)

nioka said:


> 1. Dont borrow to invest.
> 2. Dont set a stop loss.
> 3. Don't think you can outsmart the system without resolve.
> 4. If the fundamentals are sound. Hold.
> 5. Lemming rushes are there from time to time and usually are buying opportunities but only when used in conjunction with 1 to 4.




Or set up a nice stop at say $2.90, don't cancel it, and buy back in later after a washout?


----------



## onthesword (10 March 2011)

...........ok but you will have to do your own research on this; i believe aut has been caught up in an african country where the govt wants to nationalise the miners. many workers have been left short with unpaid wages etc and the aut site is in limbo for the time being. as mentioned dyor on this as i'm not completely sure of the details.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 March 2011)

onthesword said:


> ...........ok but you will have to do your own research on this; i believe aut has been caught up in an african country where the govt wants to nationalise the miners. many workers have been left short with unpaid wages etc and the aut site is in limbo for the time being. as mentioned dyor on this as i'm not completely sure of the details.




Since when has AUT been involved anywhere but the EFS?


----------



## trader8888 (10 March 2011)

onthesword said:


> ...........ok but you will have to do your own research on this; i believe aut has been caught up in an african country where the govt wants to nationalise the miners. many workers have been left short with unpaid wages etc and the aut site is in limbo for the time being. as mentioned dyor on this as i'm not completely sure of the details.




Seems odd as AUT have no dealings in any african country's.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (10 March 2011)

onthesword said:


> ...........ok but you will have to do your own research on this; i believe aut has been caught up in an african country where the govt wants to nationalise the miners. many workers have been left short with unpaid wages etc and the aut site is in limbo for the time being. as mentioned dyor on this as i'm not completely sure of the details.



It is NOT Aurora Oil and Gas (as per ASX listed). You are confused with *Aurora Empowerment Systems*.

This has been going on since early last year. http://www.azomining.com/Details.asp?newsID=1413
_"...In what will be a historical case South African union mining workers have decided to sue the mine owning relative of President Jacob Zuma. A nephew of the South African president owns that Aurora Empowerment Systems firm. The firm is a black affirmative action investment company which has limited mining exposure..."_


----------



## buffalo66 (10 March 2011)

nioka said:


> AUT, along with the stockmarket in general, is caught up in the overall grand plan that is designed to transfer wealth from the general savings of the average "joe" to a few who insist that they alone have the right to wealth. Part of that plan is to encourage you to borrow from them for investment purposes then use your stop loss, which you are told is necessary to protect your savings, to buy from you at a discounted price and sell back to you again when they decide to pump the stock market again.
> 
> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> ...




Nioka - that has to be some of the clearest comment I have read today. & what a day..lost a lot of paper profit. Am holding my positions but christ, resources have been savaged on the asx - is this solely the middle east? Anyone a clear idea as to what's going on??


----------



## poverty (10 March 2011)

Margin Call!  Awesome! :/


----------



## condog (10 March 2011)

You can never tell what fools will do and they are fools selling right now on the back of an upgrade and do the maths. $8+ by end of 2011 on my values

These are buying opportunities, hopeffully it will go lower.

The market is like a moody monster, when its angry it presents buying opportunities , when its all happy and smiles, could be selling or hold. Just work with the mood. 

Right now I  look for buying opps.


----------



## traderclaude (10 March 2011)

AUT did cope a hammering today but they were not alone, look at FMG. 

1.5% overall down for the market. Miners and Airlines were hit the worst, unrest in the world and oil prices will effect airlines.  

But also a few suprises like GNS that may be one of those buy opportunities.

One of those bad days, can only get better, just money moving around the sectors, it comes and goes.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 March 2011)

traderclaude said:


> AUT did cope a hammering today but they were not alone, look at FMG.
> 
> 1.5% overall down for the market. Miners and Airlines were hit the worst, unrest in the world and oil prices will effect airlines.
> 
> ...




I understand higher oil prices will effect everyone right down to lil timmy getting a good present this year... due to gasoline prices timmy's mum is paying for however... this begs the question wouldn't the likes of AUT etc.. by profiting from this? Paying off the bills quickly etc... sure demand may slow but this is made up from the extra barrel price? right??? :S

I see when gold rises the gold stocks rise too... why isnt this the case for the OaG companies?


----------



## MACCA350 (10 March 2011)

Accumulated some more today thanks to the tank see you all at $8

Cheers


----------



## condog (10 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I understand higher oil prices will effect everyone right down to lil timmy getting a good present this year... due to gasoline prices timmy's mum is paying for however... this begs the question wouldn't the likes of AUT etc.. by profiting from this? Paying off the bills quickly etc... sure demand may slow but this is made up from the extra barrel price? right??? :S
> 
> I see when gold rises the gold stocks rise too... why isnt this the case for the OaG companies?




Egg Zactly commonsense takes a jump out the window. To a certain extent yes high oil will mean good news for AUT and others whose energy sale prices are linked or related to the NYMEX price. 

If however oil goes too high ( which it shouldnt, as its a bit of a self correcting proffecy- albeit with exagerations and volatility) it can cause an economic slowdown as transport costs kick in to profit margins. 

Right now imo this is great for AUT as they are highly profitable prices, but not so high as to cause an overall slowdown. Airlines and transport companies that have not hedged will be hurt or have to pass it on to consumers. 



So yes generally higher oil is good for AUT etc, but if it goes too high it can cause wider concerns of a slowdown, which would eventually lead to low oil prices.


----------



## bbker (10 March 2011)

Oh well so much for 99c AUT shares that I forgot to pick up last year! hah not really. Even reality has to catch up with those shaken at some point. But I'm allowed to dream.:

It's a bit reminiscent of the Iraq war though there was a lot more at stake and there was international intervention... at least at this stage there doesn't seem to be or be as weighty globally. But the Saudis and OPEC tell us they're in control, not that you can trust the cartel either.

Maybe someone from that time can remember what happened to oil prices and the market.


----------



## shinobi346 (10 March 2011)

Entered this love today at 2.75. I love the financials and its prospects. I finally have some exposure in a pureplay oil corp too.


EDIT: I forgot that I had SEA too. Second pureplay oil I guess


----------



## Sdajii (10 March 2011)

nioka said:


> AUT, along with the stockmarket in general, is caught up in the overall grand plan that is designed to transfer wealth from the general savings of the average "joe" to a few who insist that they alone have the right to wealth. Part of that plan is to encourage you to borrow from them for investment purposes then use your stop loss, which you are told is necessary to protect your savings, to buy from you at a discounted price and sell back to you again when they decide to pump the stock market again.
> 
> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> ...





Brilliant post, nioka.


The market is spooked, the stop losses snowballed (finished today? continuing tomorrow?), but the fundamentals are still great, and even though the technicals can dominate the short-term movements, sooner or later the fundamentals dominate the bigger picture, even if it takes a few months. I utterly hate getting into debt, but if the bots/stop losses/big fish manage to get the market down much lower I'll actually borrow to invest. At around $2.7x this one could well be a 2-3 bagger, maybe even four or more by the end of the year.

Easy to imagine being back up to $2.9x tomorrow, but hey, if the bears are right it'll be a great time to buy  Well, the $4.50 price target makes anything under about $3.50 sound awesome, and they've been worth listening to so far.

Disclaimer: I'm just an essentially anonymous guy on an internet forum; none of this is advice, just my own ramblings etc etc.


----------



## prgudula (10 March 2011)

any idea why do we have transaction with higher price after market close
Last trades

Last trades

    * Time/Date     * Price     * Volume

    * 5:44:46PM     * 2.910     * 8900
    * 5:31:22PM     * 2.910     * 8900
    * 5:30:24PM     * 2.910     * 8900
    * 5:17:51PM     * 2.910     * 10609
    * 5:07:29PM     * 2.910     * 4450
    * 5:05:16PM     * 2.910     * 4450
    * 5:01:51PM     * 2.910     * 8900
    * 5:00:02PM     * 2.910     * 8900
    * 4:56:36PM     * 2.910     * 17801
    * 4:54:36PM     * 2.910     * 55182


----------



## Tekwrek (10 March 2011)

nioka said:


> AUT, along with the stockmarket in general, is caught up in the overall grand plan that is designed to transfer wealth from the general savings of the average "joe" to a few who insist that they alone have the right to wealth. Part of that plan is to encourage you to borrow from them for investment purposes then use your stop loss, which you are told is necessary to protect your savings, to buy from you at a discounted price and sell back to you again when they decide to pump the stock market again.
> 
> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> ...




Nioka you are 200% correct, the big boys in town, always control market movements.
If 6 big fund managers sat down toinight over a $5,000 dinner at some top notch eatery, and all agreed to start dumping stock, what would happen, then after the smoke clears and the same dinner took place at a later stage and the all agree to purchase, we will have a run, and those over weight fund managers got in scream buy, buy, buy. 
This is how reality works.
That is why forums like this are priceless.


----------



## bbker (10 March 2011)

I'm curious to know what kind of people would have stop loss triggers on such a stock. I suppose day traders? I remember from the EKA thread how someone mentioned getting triggered out of an EKA position on a small dip at low volume a few weeks ago.

Also interested in prgudula's post about the after market trades.


----------



## shinobi346 (10 March 2011)

nioka said:


> AUT, along with the stockmarket in general, is caught up in the overall grand plan that is designed to transfer wealth from the general savings of the average "joe" to a few who insist that they alone have the right to wealth. Part of that plan is to encourage you to borrow from them for investment purposes then use your stop loss, which you are told is necessary to protect your savings, to buy from you at a discounted price and sell back to you again when they decide to pump the stock market again.
> 
> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> ...





yep while stop losses can minimize your losses they will definitely make you realize them. I don't use them either. I sell when I want to sell, determined on the fundamentals of hte company and if I want to divert the money elsewhere. I don't sell just because it has hit a magic number.


----------



## martyfar (11 March 2011)

nioka said:


> AUT, along with the stockmarket in general, is caught up in the overall grand plan that is designed to transfer wealth from the general savings of the average "joe" to a few who insist that they alone have the right to wealth. Part of that plan is to encourage you to borrow from them for investment purposes then use your stop loss, which you are told is necessary to protect your savings, to buy from you at a discounted price and sell back to you again when they decide to pump the stock market again.
> 
> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> ...




Hiya Nioka...sounds like good advice to me,  but what does the 1-4 relate to ??


----------



## ob1kinobi (11 March 2011)

Hi BBker

Stop losses are part of risk management.

You _*limit risk *_with stop losses to avoid taking larger losses that you can't recover from easily.

A 8% loss is easier to realise than a 20% loss for example.

Active fund managers would use them I presume, so its not just day traders.

Everyone here seems to have a very short memory. Wasn't anyone here holding throughout the GFC of 07-08?

Some good, honest, hardworking peoples portfolios took some massive hits by sticking to the buy and hold philosophy. Serious coin that will take years to recover. 

Furthermore some companies never recover to the highs of yesteryear so you can be left 'not realising' your loss for years and never breakeven.

So it cuts both ways.

Discl: I'm still holding. So well see what good it does me.


----------



## majorca (11 March 2011)

So ther US looks like it is down about 1.5% the question now is do we wait and see if we are near the bottom of this or ? Do we flip a coin now that we have established that the market is open to manipulation by the big boys is anything else actually relevant or does it come down to who has the best perception of the game that is played? I topped up on Aut at 2.92 close to the bottom two days ago, if I can get in somewhere around 2.70 this morning I would be close again but it would be a cycle of averaging down that can be a bit self destructive. With Adi in 07 - 08 I got caught, held and waited I eventually thought bugger it and bought 300k at 4.8 cts and another parcel on the way at 6cts in the end it averaged my portfolio down so from a very big loss I actually made a handsome profit. I am not even close to being as knowledgable as the people on these threads and consider it luck more than anything that turned things around. But then again I would probably flip you for most things that I have. That doesn't mean I don't care , more so that I believe you can't be objective if you are attached?  I think it was heads both times when I flipped the coin then? Everyone is right and wrong but picking the balance when it matters? That is a different thing again.


----------



## MACCA350 (11 March 2011)

Anyone else watching the pre open?
93k buy
1.1M sell
$2.58 match price

185k in 8 lots already traded at $2.74-$2.80 between 8:30-8:45AM
137k in 10 lots traded yesterday at $2.91 between 4:55-5:45PM
That's 322k(~$900k) in transfers that's not affecting the market move. 
What are they and why are they showing in the market trades if they're not on market. If they were a buy they would have pushed the sp up over $3 given the current sell depth. Suppose they are off market transfers being plugged through the system.

Cheers


----------



## MACCA350 (11 March 2011)

You can add another 47k at 9:10AM to those off market trades.......

Cheers


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (11 March 2011)

MACCA350 said:


> 185k in 8 lots already traded at $2.74-$2.80 between 8:30-8:45AM



They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.


----------



## $20shoes (11 March 2011)

nioka said:


> How to avoid the trap;
> 
> 1. Dont borrow to invest.
> 2. Dont set a stop loss.
> ...




Wow, that's the worst advice I've seen for ages. 

1. Borrow to invest if your system produces positive expectancy. Using other people's money makes you money if you know you absolutely cannot lose in the long run - why wouldn't you borrow?

 2. You don't have a system without risk management. Stop losses of some sort are a component that prevents you getting pillaged. Who gives two hoots if you're stopped out of a position? It's of such little consequence. Surely, being stopped out suggests that you mistimed your entry? There's only a probability that price action will move in the direction I was expecting - I'm admitting to being wrong at least a couple of times a day. 

More importantly stops are AN INCREDIBLE SOURCE of "opportunity" for making  money. Without them my money is tied up and i'm not moving on to another opportunity. STOPS ABSOLUTELY MAKE ME MONEY.

I can already see in the responses to your post that people are justifying their positions. It's the first reaction when they're caught on the wrong side of a move. 

3. Resolve? What about being on the right side of a move rather than watch your equity swing wildly with each position you take and seeing where it takes you? 

4. Until what point? What good would holding on to AED or ROC or a myriad of other stocks have done for me over the past two years? Why wouldn't you have preferred to have been stopped out and making money on trending stocks?


5. When supply is overcome or evaporates you will see prices rise with little effort - true


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.




thanks for the explanation, it was confusing me how trades can be done after and before hours!!

Judging by the buy/sell market depth you would think that there will be a price crash on opening...but im very new to this and only just learning how to read the market.. would make sense tho..


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

might be guna see AUT fall through some stop losses this morning. 

Some will panic and sell, others will sit and watch and some will snap up shares to hold while the lemmings jump from the windows. ???? what to do??

We saw this sort of pullback in both AUT and the general market in june july last year. When they all got over it a few weeks later, onwards and upwards we went.

One things for sure the first half hour will be interesting.corn:corn:corn:


----------



## MACCA350 (11 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.



Sounds like a rort, over $1M in shares traded without affecting the share price

Cheers


----------



## brendoz (11 March 2011)

im with sdajii and condog here- all this does to me is spell out opportunity. fundamentals are great, so im scratching my head to see countless investors offloading socks well below $3.00 when just days ago there is an evaluation upgrade to $4.50



im closely following the depth with excitement over such volatility.


----------



## nioka (11 March 2011)

$20shoes said:


> Wow, that's the worst advice I've seen for ages.




Worked OK for me, still works OK for me. Based on advice I recieved many many years ago from people that had it work for them. You cant beat something that is proven to work. There are a lot of geared up losses being made at the moment. Gearing works both ways, it mutplies the losses as it does the gains.


----------



## bbker (11 March 2011)

It's gonna be a long couple 'a months. 

Opportunists and defeatists shuffling about queued positions looking at other stocks.

I'm enjoying the popcorn too


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (11 March 2011)

We're in Green territory again. Here we go... here we go... here we go...


----------



## $20shoes (11 March 2011)

nioka said:


> Worked OK for me, still works OK for me. Based on advice I recieved many many years ago from people that had it work for them. You cant beat something that is proven to work. There are a lot of geared up losses being made at the moment. Gearing works both ways, it mutplies the losses as it does the gains.




nioka, i know you've been around the block a few times and have enjoyed success. And I enjoy your posts. 
I'm just concerned with how your message may come across to those with less experience. My intention was to present a counter argument to get others thinking


----------



## Sdajii (11 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> We're in Green territory again. Here we go... here we go... here we go...




Amazing, isn't it? In an ocean of red AUT is sitting there like a solitary green lamp  The fundamentals are too strong for AUT


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

$20shoes said:


> nioka, i know you've been around the block a few times and have enjoyed success. And I enjoy your posts.
> I'm just concerned with how your message may come across to those with less experience. My intention was to present a counter argument to get others thinking




he one thing thats clear to me, is there are so many strategies to succeed, and we all tend to sway to the one that suits us best. 

I think theres a lot of wise heads in this thread, and while i dont agree with it all, i think theres a lot of wisdom contained that should at least be pondered about as to why its said. Whils i dont agree that gearing is the answer or should be avoided, both cases have a strong argument for and against , and i think at least being aware of those reasons is the key. You will ultimately determine your own risk tolerance and what suits one person will not necesarily suit the others or work for them. 

Good health discussion guys. Me personally i use an equity loan thats about 10% of my portfolio, it used to be 50% ,so its not subject to margin calls. There are times when i like to be geared eg: when your buying at the bottom of a GFC, and when things have been going up for a while and are due for pullbacks, i like to avoid gearing. But me personally, i would never ever have a margin loan.

What i detest about margin loans is that your getting hammered with a call and forced to sell, virtually exactly when you should be trying to buy. If i hold a stock and its fundamentals are good. If it drops 35% for no reason other then market sentiment, i want to be buying not selling.

Its a bit like your house, if someone comes up to you and says hey mate house prices have dropped 30%, are you going to rush out and sell your house???  not likely, so why would you do it with sound investments if youve already suffered the loss. Its got to be closer to a buy then a sell. 

Sure sell at the top and buy at the bottom if you can time it , but once you ve incurred the loss and its bottoming, why sell, if its still a sound stock thats well under value. ???

A lot to ponder.

So far AUT this morning is a great example, i bet those who sold at 2.62 feel pretty regretful at present with the sp green at 2.78 ....... well i guess they can officially call themselves lemmings. We wont know whether they are the lemmings or us for a few days or weeks. But right now its odds on them.


----------



## skyQuake (11 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> They're all XT (Cross-Trades) meaning that (say) CommSec has a buyer and a seller wanting the same stock (and covering amounts), they don't need to trade them on the market. CommSec opens at 8am so I assume, in practise they're able to start trading internally at this time.




Actually they're overseas trades. AUT trades a little bit in Canada (after the cap raising there). Those trades are LTXT which = late crossing or OSXT = overseas crossings.
A normal commsec crossing would just be XT, and can only be done inside mkt hours;

SPXT and stuff are portfolio crossings between fundies and can be done before or after mkt hrs.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

Dammit, missed the boat.

Was taking a guy on tour of the worksite. arghhhhh


----------



## nioka (11 March 2011)

$20shoes said:


> . I'm just concerned with how your message may come across to those with less experience.




It is those with less experience that the message was aimed at. To invest with borrowed funds is definitely not recommended for those with "less experience". 

Hands up those that were stopped out in the last day or two and now see AUT back in green ink, where is should have been all the time, and are now having to buy back in.


----------



## basilio (11 March 2011)

> What i detest about margin loans is that your getting hammered with a call and forced to sell, virtually exactly when you should be trying to buy. If i hold a stock and its fundamentals are good. If it drops 35% for no reason other then market sentiment, i want to be buying not selling.
> 
> Its a bit like your house, if someone comes up to you and says hey mate house prices have dropped 30%, are you going to rush out and sell your house??? not likely, so why would you do it with sound investments if youve already suffered the loss. Its got to be closer to a buy then a sell.
> 
> Sure sell at the top and buy at the bottom if you can time it , *but once you ve incurred the loss and its bottoming, why sell, if its still a sound stock thats well under value. ???*



  Coondog


> It is those with less experience that the message was aimed at. To invest with borrowed funds is definitely not recommended for those with "less experience".
> 
> *Hands up those that were stopped out in the last day or two and now see AUT back in green ink, where is should have been all the time, and are now having to buy back in. *



 Noika


Hear, hear.. Worth repeating and worth remembering.


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Amazing, isn't it? In an ocean of red AUT is sitting there like a solitary green lamp  The fundamentals are too strong for AUT




Thats imo indicating its a red bot buy. Right now it has a 50%= gain to reach valuation, and we all know later this year the next reserves report will bu up up again, and then theres still the new well spacing to almost double it again. 

Red hot buy imo .


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

Im confused...

It says it opened at 2.62 and that its now at 2.78, yet only a $0.06 price increase listed?

Anyone else seeing this?

Chance of it dropping back down today?


----------



## Magic Man (11 March 2011)

It closed at 2.72 yesterday, 2.78 now means its up 6cents.


----------



## Sdajii (11 March 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Im confused...
> 
> It says it opened at 2.62 and that its now at 2.78, yet only a $0.06 price increase listed?
> 
> ...




The difference is calculated based on the previous day's closing price, not the current day's opening price.

Some great posts about different strategies being best for different people, and I agree, borrowing to invest is not for the beginner!


----------



## skyQuake (11 March 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Im confused...
> 
> It says it opened at 2.62 and that its now at 2.78, yet only a $0.06 price increase listed?
> 
> ...




Closed at 2.72 yesterday.

Should see some steady tickle of buying after the past 2 weeks of steady trickle of selling imo


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

ah crap- im an idiot. Sorry for the stupid question guys!!

Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65 

Not sure i understand why the price jumped so much when there were 93k buyers and 1.1m sellers?

Shouldnt that make it drop?


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

ITs a bit hard to see but in june last year the market overall had about a 5% dip over a few weeks, and on the back of a CR, AUT got hammered and people paniced for about 3 weeks. Problem was back then, just as now, those rigs kept drilling and the crews kept fraccing. It was only one rig and one crew, and good old aut added value so fast it soon went up to find value. 

Whats your thoughts right now , with 4 rigs drilling , and a full time frac crew. My thoughts are its adding value at around or just below 4 times the pace it was last year. Admittedly its a much bigger company right now, in fact its around 5 times as large. 

I know what my guess is, and its in line with Euroz more so then the crap thats happeining today or tommorrow. Dont get me wrong the overall market is due for a pullback, and if i was holding a stock like woolworth or virgin or quantas, harvey norman etc, id be worried as the oil price will affect them, but im not too worried about my oilers, as right now those margins are rediculously good. But AUT is adding relative value at a rediculous rate comparred to those companies. 

You may have noted in the last presentation the prices they have been selling at, which where fantastic and are now far better. Im quietly confident.


----------



## skyQuake (11 March 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> ah crap- im an idiot. Sorry for the stupid question guys!!
> 
> Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65
> 
> ...




Buyers and sellers in the depth generally mean very little.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Buyers and sellers in the depth generally mean very little.




Good to know. Another lesson learnt!

So essentially theres no way to predict whats going to happen on opening?


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> ah crap- im an idiot. Sorry for the stupid question guys!!
> 
> Now im just sitting waiting wishing for it to come back down to 2.65
> 
> ...




When your watching the volumes you need to remember that as the price goes up sells are disapearing and new higher buys are getting added to the list which increases the buy volumes and reduces the sell volumes. 

When the price is dropping the exact opposite happens, the seller volumes grow and the buyer volumes reduce. But eventually you reach a point where sellers are prepard to not sell any cheaper and buyers start seeing value. At that point which you described above, the volumes indicate selling pressure , but theres actually equilibrium or if anything upward pressure beginning to happen.


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Buyers and sellers in the depth generally mean very little.




I dont agree at all. they often indicate the momentum , and when you watch a stock close enough they nearly always give you warning of whats about to happen.

After each CR and pullback with AUT, we have seen the seller volumes mount, as soon as they get about half of the buyers the price has begun to rise and wehn they get to about a third we nearly always punch out a new high that day or the next. 

When your watching 10 stock you probably cant notice it, but when your watching one, it can be a reasonably reliable guide. The point where its least accurate though is clearly when its reaching equilibrium and either just turned or about to turn . Where tiny changes can alter the direction.

And when you consider the stocks are controlled by herds of bulls and bears, it often indicates the direction of the herd. Each stock deevelops its own patterns of volumes, and the volumes that change one stock will be entirely different to the next. Its only something you will notice when you focus closely on a stock.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

condog said:


> I dont agree at all. they often indicate the momentum , and when you watch a stock close enough they nearly always give you warning of whats about to happen.
> 
> After each CR and pullback with AUT, we have seen the seller volumes mount, as soon as they get about half of the buyers the price has begun to rise and wehn they get to about a third we nearly always punch out a new high that day or the next.
> 
> When your watching 10 stock you probably cant notice it, but when your watching one, it can be a reasonably reliable guide. The point where its least accurate though is clearly when its reaching equilibrium and either just turned or about to turn . Where tiny changes can alter the direction.




Ok so thats during the trading day. But what of trying to figure out opening momentum?


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Ok so thats during the trading day. But what of trying to figure out opening momentum?




The first 15min to half hour is crazy and anything can happen. After the first half hour you will generally begin to see the true momentum for the day. Things however sometimes turn around at lunch time as bigger players return from lunch and begin to get a feel for asian trading for the day. 

The momentum on the open is always shown in the pre-open quote. Thats not necesarily acurate to the cent, but you can generally see which way its heading, and the size of the move to an extent. Especially if you wrote the values for the close down. You will see a big surge in buyers or sellers which is a good indicator. 

Right now we have a million sellers and 500k buyers. I can tell you from experience with aut i think its roughly bottomed for the day and theres no huge up pressure for the rest of the day. Buyers are takeing a wait and see approach  imo.

Sometimes however when a fund or institution starts buying or selling they come from off screen and they move the stock a lot with absolutely no notice or warning in the numbers.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

condog said:


> The first 15min to half hour is crazy and anything can happen. After the first half hour you will generally begin to see the true momentum for the day. Things however sometimes turn around at lunch time as bigger players return from lunch and begin to get a feel for asian trading for the day.
> 
> The momentum on the open is always shown in the pre-open quote. Thats not necesarily acurate to the cent, but you can generally see which way its heading, and the size of the move to an extent. Especially if you wrote the values for the close down. You will see a big surge in buyers or sellers which is a good indicator.
> 
> ...




I think ill hold my price at 2.65 till lunchtime and then ill reconvene haha.

Just for my own curiosity and learnings, what was the pre-open quote for AUT today.. i cant seem to find it listed anywhere?


----------



## breaker (11 March 2011)

2.58 me thinks


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

breaker said:


> 2.58 me thinks




ok cool, so not far off the 2.62

Learning lots these past few days haha.


----------



## breaker (11 March 2011)

Yeah scary stuff eh


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

breaker said:


> Yeah scary stuff eh




sure is- very hard to know when to buy. i thought i was getting in good on wed and then yesterday happened. The two trades i made on wed were my first solo trades (been using a broker for the past 5-6 years)... Hopefully they come back good.

Somehow i dont like my chances at getting AUT for 2.65, but i keep second guessing my bids and amending them only to find that i could have got it if i waited.. catch 22 sometimes!

but i guess whats 5-10c if they are going to hit 8 bucks by christmas (supposidly)


----------



## breaker (11 March 2011)

alex you must have a plan when to get in when to get out and stick to it there are plenty more shares


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

breaker said:


> alex you must have a plan when to get in when to get out and stick to it there are plenty more shares




yep- working on that. removing all emotion from share buying is best. I'm learning to do it. 

Although, sometimes i just cbf and ill buy if i know its going to do well (like AUT for example), still waiting for them to come down... they are slowly dropping but i doubt they will get low enough for my buy to kick in. I presume on monday they will rocket off and not be seen at these lows again.


----------



## mir (11 March 2011)

i went to an AUT presentation yesterday & a few of us had a chat after the presentation, it's a bigger no brain-er than ever.

key points
1. AUT is currently trading at $10 to $11 boe (pre royalties on 3p)the average on the TSX is $25 to $30 on 2p,AUT will be 2p by the end of the year.

2. gmp commented about the possibility of the reserves being 10 times larger . 20 acre spacings with one well in the chalks & one in the eagleford gives you about 8 times & then you increase the EUR by 30% to 40% & there you go but must be tested first.
i would be more than happy with half that,the point is AUT reserves should increase dramatically in the future.
estseon "the only issue is connectivity between the wells"
if you get connectivity you may lose some EUR but 2 x 600 mboe is better than 750 mboe.

3.AUT should go into field development by mid next year which means multiple wells from one pad as opposed to drilling to retain acreage.cost of wells will come down & tighter well spacings.

4. aut acreage is in the sweet spot of the eagleford as shown on page 12 of the presentation plenty of red dots.

5. drilling & frac crews under control with hilcorp.

i will try to remember more.


----------



## Assasin (11 March 2011)

breaker said:


> alex you must have a plan when to get in when to get out and stick to it there are plenty more shares




Breaker,    be carefull having a definate plan on when to get out. I bought my first parcel of AUT at 30c and if you told me that they may have doubled then I would have planned to sell then- 60c. 
     Due to learning, reading, asking and harassing smarter people I discovered that they may go higher, heck they may reach a $1. Continued learning and watched to my amazement Aut reach the levels that they are.
    And even if you just read what has been reported in the past 2 weeks, you would be pretty confident of a stellar year ahead.
    Could you imagine if i'd stuck to the plan of selling at 60c.
    I know everyone's financials and trading strategies are different but I think it's un-wise to put definates on sells.

   Mir, that was a great post.
  Cheers


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Breaker,    be carefull having a definate plan on when to get out. I bought my first parcel of AUT at 30c and if you told me that they may have doubled then I would have planned to sell then- 60c.
> Due to learning, reading, asking and harassing smarter people I discovered that they may go higher, heck they may reach a $1. Continued learning and watched to my amazement Aut reach the levels that they are.
> And even if you just read what has been reported in the past 2 weeks, you would be pretty confident of a stellar year ahead.
> Could you imagine if i'd stuck to the plan of selling at 60c.
> ...




= pretty much sums up my conflict. Even though i set my price at 2.65 today, im tempted to jump in at 2.78 just because they are such a good buy and are almost certain to rocket up in the near future! In a months time when they are $3 + i would shoot myself for being tight over a measly 2-3%


----------



## Kremmen (11 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Buyers and sellers in the depth generally mean very little.




It varies depending on the stock. Generalisations like this remind me of a charting seminar I went to long ago. The presenter said that stocks will generally fall if they hit an RSI of 80 and rise if they hit an RSI of 20. I've watched that measure for years, and some stocks I've followed can sit above 80 for weeks, while others you can pretty much guarantee will fall the next day if they touch 80.



breaker said:


> alex you must have a plan when to get in when to get out and stick to it there are plenty more shares




This is possibly the worst advice ever. The market exaggerates. Think flock of sheep. If you plan to exit at a particular level, that is almost the guaranteed way to minimise your profits. It may either take too long to get to your target and you money could have been doing better elsewhere, or you'll sell way too soon.


----------



## breaker (11 March 2011)

Assasin,I have found that with a target, the share does retrace and you can buy back in. I dont go much on fundamentals I have a plan to buy ,sell although I do get tempted  like AUT all my stops have been hit 10% paper loss but im still in


----------



## Assasin (11 March 2011)

breaker said:


> Assasin,I have found that with a target, the share does retrace and you can buy back in. I dont go much on fundamentals I have a plan to buy ,sell although I do get tempted  like AUT all my stops have been hit 10% paper loss but im still in




Breaker,
          these small cap oilers would be difficult stocks to be in if your not interested in fundamentals.
        However, your strategy obviously works for you. Good luck.


----------



## alexc2005 (11 March 2011)

man jumped up to 2.82. ****!

The only question is- What will monday bring?


----------



## tradefill (11 March 2011)

just wish i had more money to top up. Can't believe how low aut has fallen recently, especially on the back of good news (reserves, oil price high, broker valuations at $4.50 etc etc). In my opinion its a great buying opportunity!


----------



## breaker (11 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Breaker,
> these small cap oilers would be difficult stocks to be in if your not interested in fundamentals.
> However, your strategy obviously works for you. Good luck.




Yeah Assassin they are whole different ball game


----------



## bbker (11 March 2011)

I've paid more than today's prices for some parcels. I'm glad I did because if I kept looking at the lows I would've always been too scared to buy.

All I can say is, you just have to suck it up and take what you can get if you know you really want to buy in, in the big scheme of things.



alexc2005 said:


> yep- working on that. removing all emotion from share buying is best. I'm learning to do it.
> 
> Although, sometimes i just cbf and ill buy if i know its going to do well (like AUT for example), still waiting for them to come down... they are slowly dropping but i doubt they will get low enough for my buy to kick in. I presume on monday they will rocket off and not be seen at these lows again.


----------



## poverty (11 March 2011)

Survived my first margin call and I'm still in!


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

poverty said:


> Survived my first margin call and I'm still in!




ewwww makes me feel sick for you. Theres a lesson in that, big time.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (11 March 2011)

condog said:


> ewwww makes me feel sick for you. Theres a lesson in that, big time.




Agree Dog.

I would just like to say never margin up on a small cap stock such as AUT or any other and always invest don't gamble what you can't afford to lose.


----------



## poverty (11 March 2011)

It's ok, just forced me to repay a bit of the loan which means my LVR won't jump around as much now.  My fault for topping up at 3.30


----------



## skyQuake (11 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Buyers and sellers in the depth generally mean very little.




To clarify, you cant just sit in front of the bigger bids or asks, you gotta see which side is 'refreshing' their bids or asks when it gets taken out, and watching time & sales.

As condog said earlier, instos/funds will not show their hand in the depth, they will nearly ALWAYS hit mkt.


----------



## Sean K (11 March 2011)

poverty said:


> It's ok, just forced me to repay a bit of the loan which means my LVR won't jump around as much now.  My fault for topping up at 3.30



You got a Margin Call on a spec stock that has run from 25c to $3.25 in 12 months? 

Impossible.


----------



## poverty (11 March 2011)

kennas said:


> You got a Margin Call on a spec stock that has run from 25c to $3.25 in 12 months?




OK i'll call them and tell them I want my payment back


----------



## PinguPingu (11 March 2011)

Bought more at $2.8 on top of my initial holding at $2.6 - really liking this company.

Although my other small cap oil stock is getting a bit of a beating, glad I don't have a marginal loan with this one:


EKA	EUREKA FPO [EKA]  0.415 0.370  -10.8%


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

kennas said:


> You got a Margin Call on a spec stock that has run from 25c to $3.25 in 12 months?
> 
> Impossible.




ITs hardly a spec anymore Kennas, its fundamentals are better then most the asx200.

Its adding value quicker then almost all the asx200 stocks.


----------



## condog (11 March 2011)

Any one holding in by the seat of thier pants against margin calls, sorry to say it , but realistically you need to get burned to teach you a lesson. Margin loans are dangerous and imo, if you get burned by them, bad luck you deserve it. Its not like the dangers where never explained. 

Margin loans are dangerous and welcome to the real world.


----------



## Sean K (11 March 2011)

condog said:


> ITs hardly a spec anymore Kennas, its fundamentals are better then most the asx200..



It's doing amazingly well. What's the p/e?


----------



## poverty (11 March 2011)

condog said:


> Any one holding in by the seat of thier pants against margin calls, sorry to say it , but realistically you need to get burned to teach you a lesson. Margin loans are dangerous and imo, if you get burned by them, bad luck you deserve it. Its not like the dangers where never explained.
> 
> Margin loans are dangerous and welcome to the real world.




Thanks for the concern, I'm not too worried as the loan amount is now quite small, the company I believe is fundamentally sound, as it turns out loading up big time at $3.30 was a mistake in the short term but in the very long-term it will probably be one of my finest moments, just doesn't feel like that right now!


----------



## skc (11 March 2011)

mir said:


> i went to an AUT presentation yesterday & a few of us had a chat after the presentation, it's a bigger no brain-er than ever.
> 
> key points
> 1. AUT is currently trading at $10 to $11 boe (pre royalties on 3p)the average on the TSX is $25 to $30 on 2p,AUT will be 2p by the end of the year.
> ...




I really like to know more about AUT and do some research on these guys, but statements and sentiments like these in a forum really turn me off.

The only no-brainers out there are if a stock has $1 in cash but trading at 20c. When a company needs to drill, prove up resources and sell in a market as a price taker, there is always some risk.

It may be a wonderful risk adjusted return, but it's rarely a no-brainer.


----------



## Sean K (11 March 2011)

skc said:


> I really like to know more about AUT and do some research on these guys, but statements and sentiments like these in a forum really turn me off.
> 
> The only no-brainers out there are if a stock has $1 in cash but trading at 20c. When a company needs to drill, prove up resources and sell in a market as a price taker, there is always some risk.
> 
> It may be a wonderful risk adjusted return, but it's rarely a no-brainer.



Nice post skc.

Even 'Blue Chips' have risk. 

Take a carbon tax being introduced.

Peace in the Middle East.

Water converted to power. 

No finance due to world implosion.


----------



## skc (11 March 2011)

kennas said:


> Nice post skc.
> 
> Even 'Blue Chips' have risk.
> 
> ...




Lol. I looked at the 4 things and thought 'water converted to power' would be quite impossible. Then I realised 'peace in the Middle East' may be even more remote...

Back to AUT.


----------



## mir (12 March 2011)

skc
"I really like to know more about AUT and do some research on these guys, but statements and sentiments like these in a forum really turn me off."
sorry skc i should of put "imo"lol
i have been in this one from day one & know the story pretty well. lets see what you can add.


----------



## WRONG'UN (12 March 2011)

Ah, that's better!
......................................................................................................


----------



## tradefill (12 March 2011)

yeh very positive on the tsx overnight, aut reaching 2.99, closing 2.95. Hopefully we'll see a similar result on monday


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (12 March 2011)

Do you guys think either the version of AUT follows the other like the ASX sometimes has a good lead off the DOW?

IE: AEF rising last night is that maybe on the back of AUT rising yesterday?


----------



## tradefill (12 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Do you guys think either the version of AUT follows the other like the ASX sometimes has a good lead off the DOW?
> 
> IE: AEF rising last night is that maybe on the back of AUT rising yesterday?




IMO I think the aef tends to follow aut. They are the same company however so usually there won't be much difference in the share price. Maybe some people saw the rise on friday as the bottom of the fall and bought in as they feel its going to go up from here. I certainly think it is dirt cheap! Aef did rise more than aut so we'll see on Monday if aut follows it up near the $3 mark. Anyone else got an opinion on this?


----------



## condog (12 March 2011)

skc said:


> I really like to know more about AUT and do some research on these guys, but statements and sentiments like these in a forum really turn me off.
> 
> The only no-brainers out there are if a stock has $1 in cash but trading at 20c. When a company needs to drill, prove up resources and sell in a market as a price taker, there is always some risk.
> 
> It may be a wonderful risk adjusted return, but it's rarely a no-brainer.




Got to say MIR knows this thing inside out and back to front and is an invester with a lot of intelligence, experience and very good judgment. 

For you to come in here and as your first post on the stock make a statement like this and attack one of the core posters in this thread, one that has an incredibley deep knowledge of the play, imo is extremely tactless and poor.

The fact MIR went to the preso is a big posistive for him and us, and MIR via the forum and via emails we have sent to each other is one very switched on character that knows this stock incredibly well. 

Cheers MIR keep up the posts like that, i love it and i really appreciate what you bring to the table. I know exactly what your getting at and i have every confidence in your ability to extract detail from Jon and others.

SKC when you demonstrate you know the first thing about this stock,  I will begin to listen to you when you make claims about whether its a no brainer or not. Right now im far more inclined to trust MIR judgment and my own. And we both agree for many good reasons think this is a "no-brainer". Perhaps if you bothered to do the research you might know why.

In reference to $1 cash and 20c stock. I?f you knew how to research stocks like these you would find that they often have $4.50 plus worth of value to be relatively safely and easily unlocked when they are in fact trading at 20c. Which is when MIR invested in this thing as did I. And using the same analysis and knowledge that told us it was going to be worth $2plus back then, we now see that in our opinion its going to be well worth the $4.50 plus Euroz has on them and possibly up over $8 by end of 2011 if things go according to plan. Personally to me that risk is a "no brainer" and imo one that has no question about whether its a risk i should take or not.


----------



## jetblack (12 March 2011)

Condog, no man is a mesiah, what is mir the only one to hold AUT from day one???

You need a reality check , there was nothing wrong in SKC post. 

lol, at your put downs.


----------



## Magic Man (12 March 2011)

Great piece Condog.. I agree you and MIR are great. Love your posts and plenty of faith in your knowledge! Fantastic!


----------



## bennywizard (12 March 2011)

Big thanks to MIR for not only taking the time and paying to go to the conference but also sharing some of your enthusiasm and what you gleaned there, this is much appreciated! If you have anything else to share please post here or pm me 
Big thanks to Condog for clarifying things and supporting this thread so consistently which adds to a lot of value here. Thanks to the many others who share their knowledge and insights as well!
I welcome all opinions including negative sentiments or concerns as we need more than just the positive side of things to have a more complete understanding, however negative personal comments are not constructive and negative comments about the stock itself are best when based on facts or or at least expressed in a humble fashion, esp if one is not well versed in the fundamentals of the stock and even more so if relatively new to a thread. I've been in this stock since 51c, I read all posts and all company announcements and more and still have a LOT to learn.
It can get scary when the market is so moody and world events cause dips such as we have seen. The combined knowledge and ideas expressed here is amazing to me as is the willingness to share and welcome new comers. It all adds to my confidence in the stock and sector in general. I look forward to more learning and higher AUT prices


----------



## condog (12 March 2011)

jetblack said:


> Condog, no man is a mesiah, what is mir the only one to hold AUT from day one???
> 
> You need a reality check , there was nothing wrong in SKC post.
> 
> lol, at your put downs.




Thanks for the input...


----------



## condog (12 March 2011)

Focusing on the stock, i agree MIR thats its more a no brainer right now then ever.

The growth of asset values is steeper then ever with 4 rigs onsite. 

 As you say AUT is currently trading at $10 to $11 boe (pre royalties on 3p)the average on the TSX is $25 to $30 on 2p,AUT will be 2p by the end of the year.

Theres the well spacin issue of possibly down to 20 acre spacing with two targets - the shale and the chalks. Imo they at a minimum will go down to 40 acre spacing which will double EUR's. If you then factor in most wells can then later target the chalks then its possibly a 4 to 8 fold increase in EURS.

Then factor in the HiTech frac technique and add 25% to those new figures which are 4 to 8 times current EUR's and you begin to see the possibilities here. 
As you say MIR we will likely see strategic targets rather then leasing obligations as early as 2012. Which is incredibly impressive given we started with a 10 well program. 

Aut acreage is in the sweetest sweet spot of the eagleford which is proving to be the sweetest shale in the entire USA. Cant get much better then achieving all those red dots in the best shale in the world right now. 

The way hilcorp is achieving constant fdrilling and fraccing in good time with virtually no delays unlike many others that are getting held up months on every well. 

Then thers also now the price of oil and gas which is proving now to be extremely profitabel for AUT with much shorter payback times then many competitors and ultimately driving up the NPV of each well and the value of AUT.

Not hard to see it easily surpassing Euroz new target of $4.50 in not much time at all. 
With 60 odd wells about to evolve do the maths, its not going to be at these prices much longer. 

Definitely agree MIR its a no brainer more now then ever.


----------



## suhm (13 March 2011)

skc said:


> I really like to know more about AUT and do some research on these guys, but statements and sentiments like these in a forum really turn me off.
> 
> The only no-brainers out there are if a stock has $1 in cash but trading at 20c. When a company needs to drill, prove up resources and sell in a market as a price taker, there is always some risk.
> 
> It may be a wonderful risk adjusted return, but it's rarely a no-brainer.




Cigarette butt investing for net net stocks isn't always a no brainer either as there are usually reasons for them comapnies being priced at a discount.

Anyway to AUT, I was interested in how to calculate reserve increases from smaller well spacings as in a traditional resevour extra holes are to increase flow rates and to target stranded accumulations.

Is all the oil in the shale a case of stranded reserves i.e. as they need fraccing to flow at adequate rates and that decreasing the spacing wouldn't cannabilise oil that would have been  pumped up by another well at a later date. I.e. that it does indeed increase reserves not just flow rates.

If indeed this is the case why aren't they already using the smaller field intervals and 20 acres just seems like a small area given the amount of money they need to spend to drill and frac a hole.

I also have issues using relative valuations vs the TSX as reason why AUT is undervalued as I had a rule of thumb of $10 per 2p boe as fair value as that seemed to be closer to the going rate on the ASX and for some of the companies at times their 2p reseves had negative value.


----------



## condog (13 March 2011)

suhm said:


> Cigarette butt investing for net net stocks isn't always a no brainer either as there are usually reasons for them comapnies being priced at a discount.
> 
> Anyway to AUT, I was interested in how to calculate reserve increases from smaller well spacings as in a traditional resevour extra holes are to increase flow rates and to target stranded accumulations.
> 
> ...




At 80 acre spacing there are huge gaps between wells not being utilised.

Right now they are drilling to secure leases. If you have leases and fail to put in a well per 320 or 640 acres you lose your rights to that lease once the time period expires.

The other thing worth noting is you only retain rights above the depth you do the well to. Hence the continual targeting of the EF shale rather then putting a few tes wells into the Austin Chalks above. 

Once we secure all leases sometime in 2012, then they will be free to drill wells whereever they wish and at what ever depth they desire. 

Right now though the priority is to put a well down every 320 acres and secure the leases.

As far as well spacing goes the optimum is to get them as close as possible without the fractures running into each other, known as "well communication".

In the event they do communicate, its far from optimal, but its not the end of the world either. They simply lose pressure in the higher of the two wells and they have difficulties setting the correct choke sizes, as a change of choke on one well effects the other as well. They also lose some EUR's. 

As someone above said though having EURS's of 2*50mboe is better then having say 1*65mmboe per well. And having flows of 2*600boepd is better then having 1*750boepd.

So yes you will definitely imo see much tighter well spacing in 2012, once our leasing obligations are completed. But right now all capital and time is critiacal to meeting lease obligations.

When they do have time and capital spare to play around with well spacing and possible dual horizontal  wells etc we may potentially imo see a doubling of reserves give or take 50%. If they can get down to 20 acre spacing which will be a big ask they may just quadrupple reserves. Similarly if they get wells operating from both the EFS and Austin Chalk at the same time we could potentially, but unlikely see an 8x reserve increase compared to now.  

Whilst i think 8x just from well spacing  is possible, but imo unlikely 4-6 seems imo easily achievable. Then technology like pulsating fracs etc can also add significantly eg 25% using the latest methods. These % if they are done on enough wells are compound, in that the 25% better EURs gets applied after all the well spacing etc has been taken into account. 

GMP reckon they forsee a 10 fold increase in reserves for AUT. Given the relatively conservative reserves reports so far, yes its easy to see, how the GMP forecast of 10 times increase in reserves is possible.


----------



## AlexG1 (13 March 2011)

condog said:


> Said lots of good stuff




Hi condog,
             I was just wondering what information you have used to build your understanding of the way these operations work and the metrics that are important to them.  I'm pretty new to this and have followed your posts with great interest and read the company reports referring to wikipedia and such to decipher unfamiliar acronyms.

To my noob eyes your analyses of the company data seems really good, and I'm certainly bullish on long term oil prices.  Enough so that I've taken out a small interest in AUT.  However I'd still like to understand it all a bit better (and maybe top up a bit more if I don't miss the boat) so was hoping you could point me in the direction of some educating material on the general industry rather than AUT itself 

Thanks, 
          Alex.


----------



## tothemax6 (13 March 2011)

AlexG1 said:


> Hi condog,
> I was just wondering what information you have used to build your understanding of the way these operations work and the metrics that are important to them.  I'm pretty new to this and have followed your posts with great interest and read the company reports referring to wikipedia and such to decipher unfamiliar acronyms.
> 
> To my noob eyes your analyses of the company data seems really good, and I'm certainly bullish on long term oil prices.  Enough so that I've taken out a small interest in AUT.  However I'd still like to understand it all a bit better (and maybe top up a bit more if I don't miss the boat) so was hoping you could point me in the direction of some educating material on the general industry rather than AUT itself
> ...



'Oil 101' from amazon is pretty good.


----------



## kanniki (13 March 2011)

For those like me trying to understand a bit more about these wells and terminology used I found this a good start 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73mv-Wl5cgg&feature=related


This is an excellent explanation of how horizontal drilling and fraccing works.


----------



## condog (13 March 2011)

I wish i could point you to resources, but realistically everyones depth of knowledge is different. I suggest you google terms you really dont understand. Read and re-read the broker reports. They emphaisize what they know, whats in doubt and i think Euroz CBA, GMP and Hartleys do a good job of explaining thier valuations. 

Go to the AUT website and read the broker reports and the company presentations. I also suggest you do some reading on valueing oil and gas companies. Theres a forward cash flow model, a reserves model and a balance sheet model for valueing them. However if you want to be an early entrant you need to learn how to project whats going to happen. 

As an example of that GMP, myself and MIR , Euroz and CBA are projecting AUT will have a rise in both cash flows and Reserves and weve done a pretty good job in here of explaining why and how. 

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/content/report_analyst.html

Important to note though that projections dont always come true. So far however AUT and most the EFS are proving to ve very reliable producers. NOT all though see AZZ as an example of an EFS player thats "stagnated at best imo".

Go back to around page 17 to see early cash flow projections of mine using my spreadsheets which i have refined significantly since then. The brokers use bot a reserves and balance sheet model. ITs best imo to use a consensus of all the targets.



> From Euroz
> Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd. (AEF-T, AUT-ASX); BUY, $4.50
> 
> AEF releases 2010 Reserve Report
> ...





Also worth a read
Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Research 
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1483&EID=45577481&PageName=Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Research


But as said above imo the key is being able to foward project valuations yourself to have advanced notice of buys and sells.


----------



## estseon (13 March 2011)

I'd suggest going to the AUT website and looking at page 7 of the 8 March presentation. That will provide the details of the other O&G companies drilling in the region and there will be a wealth of information on their websites.

Mir also posted on HC:

"here's a bit more i just remembered & may help explain why GMP think the reserves will increase.

they are drilling the bottom of the eagleford because you only hold the rights through production to the leases above the well. the frac's are going out more in a horizontal fashion than vertical as the shale has sections in it (see the core sample on page 31 of the presentation).the oil being recovered is probably coming from the lower E/F only.

in time they could start twinning the wells, one in the chalks & one in the E/F directly in line just at different depths. another company is already staggering the depths of the wells to get closer spacings."

But he didn't get his head bitten off on that board.

Anybody who has followed this project, whether through AUT, EKA, the demised ADI or UK AIM listed EME, will know that the Austin Chalk overlays the Eagle Ford Shale in the AMI and that there is a transition zone between them. They would also know that Weston was drilled by TCEI in the Chalk, as was Kowalik 1, which was completed with slotted liner to tap the natural fractures.

Anybody who has followed EME, which had a participation in CoP's Live Oak project, will know that Marlene Olsen was drilled vertically and test fractured in both the chalk and the shale to see how they flowed together from the same well. Information may have been available to Hilcorp at the time that it was assessing the farm in in 2009.


----------



## trader8888 (13 March 2011)

Decided to do a quick PE ratio calc on AUT.

These are the parameters used in the calc
- 5000 BOEPD (NET TO AUT)
- $95 Oil
- 350 days of production a year
- %40 tax and royalties

EPS - 

$99,750,000 (NET PROFIT AFTER ALL DEDUCTIONS) divide by 403,000,000 (SOI)

= EPS 0.20c

PE RATIO - 

$2.80 divide by 0.20c

= a PE RATIO of 14

IMO the 5000 boepd is very conservative but this is what the brokers are using. It has been mentioned before that the sector average PE ratio is 25 so you can see their is alot of room for SP movement.

Please correct me if anything is wrong.


----------



## Tekwrek (13 March 2011)

kennas said:


> You got a Margin Call on a spec stock that has run from 25c to $3.25 in 12 months?
> 
> Impossible.




He is most probably dealing with African Bankers.


----------



## AlexG1 (13 March 2011)

Thanks a lot for that detailed reply condog - will be digging into some additional reading material - I've already done quite a bit of reading through the early postings.

Also thanks tothemax - will have a look into that book as well.   Wish they had a Kindle version :-(

Very much appreciate the helpful nature of these forums and hope I'll be able to give back in the future.

Alex.


----------



## skc (14 March 2011)

condog said:


> Got to say MIR knows this thing inside out and back to front and is an invester with a lot of intelligence, experience and very good judgment.
> 
> For you to come in here and as your first post on the stock make a statement like this and attack one of the core posters in this thread, one that has an incredibley deep knowledge of the play, imo is extremely tactless and poor.
> 
> SKC when you demonstrate you know the first thing about this stock,  I will begin to listen to you when you make claims about whether its a no brainer or not. Right now im far more inclined to trust MIR judgment and my own. And we both agree for many good reasons think this is a "no-brainer". Perhaps if you bothered to do the research you might know why.




Take it easy Tiger. I was merely pointing out that I have a different definition of what 'no brainer' means, and describing my personal behavial response to reading such posts. Read my post again without a defensive mindset and you might find that I was not dissing the stock, or attacking anyone.

The fact that so much research has been done/shown here means that it is not a no brainer to me (as brain is definitely required to do research). But feel free to have a different definition for yourself.


----------



## alexc2005 (14 March 2011)

Is anyone familiar with westpac online investing?

I cant seem to find the pre-open price listed anywhere...

there is a 2.88 figure down the bottom left with no heading but not sure if thats it?


----------



## Sweenz (14 March 2011)

With Westpac, 

If you go into market depth it will show the indicative price near the bottom right hand corner..

Sweenz


----------



## poverty (14 March 2011)

A few simple questions, what effect does changes in the price of oil have for companies like AUT?  If the price spikes up suddenly, like with this Libya crisis are AUT instantly making more money, or does it take a long, sustained period of high oil prices before it starts filtering down to AUT's bank account?


----------



## condog (14 March 2011)

The sale prices of product by AUT is affected by global prices. The dry gas price is much more local oriented, but the condensate is more in direct competition with oil and as such its price is much closer linked to the crude prices. 

So yes when oil  prices are high companies like AUT make more profit, mainly from its condensate. Periods of materially higher prices will be very noticable in AUT's bank account and or in its well repayment times. 

At current prices companies like AUT are likely to be significantly more profitable then when oil is down around $70-$80, as the profit margin is almost double for every barrel of condensate.   Hope this helps.


----------



## poverty (14 March 2011)

Thanks condog


----------



## dashwood (15 March 2011)

if you are looking for signposts AEF hit 2.74 briefly on tsx


----------



## brendoz (15 March 2011)

wow, what a close to the day.

$2.57, down 29c. i didnt expect that...


----------



## skyQuake (15 March 2011)

brendoz said:


> wow, what a close to the day.
> 
> $2.57, down 29c. i didnt expect that...




Quite a squeeze today, all those that went long after that white bar prob stopped out.


----------



## Magic Man (15 March 2011)

Yeah tell me about it. Although we all love to top up on good stocks with good fundamentals we believe in, sometimes its not a nice feeling to see everything slump and all your capital go down the toilet. 

Tomorrows another day but starting to wonder were this market is going in the short term and longer term.


----------



## sparkie (15 March 2011)

ok go easy on me as I am a newbie.....

But as good as the fundamentals are ,for awhile there has been alot more sellers than buyers 

and just looking at things like a MASCD of 3mths....since feb 11th its been on a steady decline...

Is everyone holding strong just on the fundamentals alone?!?!


----------



## traderclaude (15 March 2011)

Fundamentals seem to go out the window sometimes, and stocks that shouldn't go down do. More an overall market trend I think.

ASX has gone down more than other markets after the earthquake so a quick rebound is possible. 

I would have thought oil and gas producing companies not effected by Japan and the Arab regions would see there shares going up at this stage.

People see gas, oil, energy and put it in the same basket without even looking at a company seems to be a trend.


----------



## easylikesunday (15 March 2011)

I dont think it matters what sector it is, its going to feel it.

We have big ties with Japan in exports etc and I wouldn't be surprised if alot of the movement in our markets is Japanese investors pulling out.

Also you have to take into consideration the sheep effect.. Panic sets in and people sell!

Im selling up tommorrow all my holdings for a profit of around 18-20% (previously 70% a week before the earthquake) My big 4 stocks AUT, PEN, HOG and CCC have been hammered but Im still ahead so I cant complain!

Im getting to a stage where I cant afford to lose much more capital as Im currently renovating my house. Ill look to get back into my fundamentally sound stocks once this all blows over. Fundamentals go out the window in times like these.

Thoughts are with the people of Japan. Its only money Im losing, not my house or family.

God speed!


----------



## Tekwrek (15 March 2011)

brendoz said:


> wow, what a close to the day.
> 
> $2.57, down 29c. i didnt expect that...




Don't be suprised that it might drop another 29c tommorrow as all of the stop losses kick in.


----------



## HEA815 (15 March 2011)

Ouch - what a day for AUT (mind you just as bad as a bunch of the others, HOG escaped but PEN was brutalised).

No obvious reason for the fall IMO, apart from the combined threat of Earthquake, Tsunami, Volcano and Nuclear Meltdown to scare investors (thank goodness Godzilla hasn't come along yet - poor taste I know but black humour is still humour).  

In all seriousness this is ridiculous, there's no correlation between the AUT and the EFS and Japan (or Libya to a lesser albeit minuscule extent).  What the F is going on!!!


----------



## Tekwrek (15 March 2011)

HEA815 said:


> Ouch - what a day for AUT (mind you just as bad as a bunch of the others, HOG escaped but PEN was brutalised).
> 
> No obvious reason for the fall IMO, apart from the combined threat of Earthquake, Tsunami, Volcano and Nuclear Meltdown to scare investors (thank goodness Godzilla hasn't come along yet - poor taste I know but black humour is still humour).
> 
> In all seriousness this is ridiculous, there's no correlation between the AUT and the EFS and Japan (or Libya to a lesser albeit minuscule extent).  What the F is going on!!!




A Fn crash thats what.


----------



## condog (16 March 2011)

HEA815 said:


> In all seriousness this is ridiculous, there's no correlation between the AUT and the EFS and Japan (or Libya to a lesser albeit minuscule extent).  What the F is going on!!!




I agree - risk aversion accounts for some selloff, but traders and stop loss triggers makes the sell down an over reaction.

To me it spells "opportunity"


----------



## Tuckertime (16 March 2011)

anyone got any preopen details? I'm having some problems with commsec and my internet


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 March 2011)

Tuckertime said:


> anyone got any preopen details? I'm having some problems with commsec and my internet




When there's blood in the streets.... condog is right you want to buy before the trend is to buy if you believe the SP is a bargain...

Really sucks the SP has dropped due to external factors but hey we don't live in Japan... things could be a lot worse... pick you're mark and buy in again if you are confident in the AUT and oil story. Im inclined to wait a lil bit longer though... however you gotta look in the distance...


----------



## estseon (16 March 2011)

UK evening papers are showing radioactive fallout likely to be carried over the US by the Jet stream. Probably harmless and low level but it could spook the US already distrustful of fission generation after three mile island. This will turn public sentiment against new reactors and the obvious replacement for retired reactors will be generation using shale gas possibly combined with carbon capture. This share could fly imo.


----------



## trader8888 (16 March 2011)

I would just like to say that the knowledge of a few of the posters on this forum is really top class and they should be congratulated - especially, estseon, mir and condog.

Today i had the opportunity of sitting down with analysts from a fund managment firm and also brokers from merril lynch, and i can say first hand that the calculations and market knowledge of some of the posters here is on par if not better than the so called professionals. 

Was very surprised that no one had heard about AUT, and most of them were bearish on commodities including oil. They were also trying to tell me that shale gas production was to costly and would not be profitable with $50 oil. Really shows how much these guys know. From my experience today i can see their are a lot of opinions and very big ego's.


----------



## condog (16 March 2011)

Got to say, just like the BP spill caused a rash of offshore investment to be cancelled and delayed, with a rush to onshore drilling, im thinking this nuclear problem is really going to spur some investment in gas, coal seam gas, coal and other forms.

If your an enery company in the US or any democratic nation trying to get thru any new power stations, somehow i think your going to be struggling to get any nuclear stations over the line. Where as when we talk about new mains load stations, gas and coal are the two main viable options. 

Given the plentiful gas in the US, and previous govt statements with a desire to get some Gas plants off the ground, they may just now be fast tracked a little. This would cerrtainly help our shale drillers. TXN AUT HOG, SEA etc.


----------



## traderclaude (16 March 2011)

That is spot on I believe.

Oil, gas, and coal should rocket in the the months ahead, uranium has really been wiped out, maybe of the map for a long time. 

I know uranium did have it's benifits as it can be a clean and efficient producer of energy, not really when you build the plants around earthquake areas. When they go they cause a lot of problems, a lot more than an oil leak like in the US gulf. 

This is why buying into uranium never crossed my mind for a second.


----------



## mr. jeff (16 March 2011)

condog said:


> Got to say, just like the BP spill caused a rash of offshore investment to be cancelled and delayed, with a rush to onshore drilling, im thinking this nuclear problem is really going to spur some investment in gas, coal seam gas, coal and other forms.
> 
> If your an enery company in the US or any democratic nation trying to get thru any new power stations, somehow i think your going to be struggling to get any nuclear stations over the line. Where as when we talk about new mains load stations, gas and coal are the two main viable options.
> 
> Given the plentiful gas in the US, and previous govt statements with a desire to get some Gas plants off the ground, they may just now be fast tracked a little. This would cerrtainly help our shale drillers. TXN AUT HOG, SEA etc.




I don't agree that further nuclear power station plans will be affected. Is there now no more drilling in the sea for oil after BP ? They will improve and modify their standards and progress. Make it, try it, change it, try it...potentially Japan will move away from nuclear in these regions permanently but that is all. 

Where will we get our plutonium for one?! and no way China is going to just can a massive segment of their power infrastructure. This is and will be a very sobering and educational experience, nothing more. 

In the short and medium term, gas exports and coal will be bumped up for Japan, agree there. I see Germany is suspending some reactors for inspections, so there will be change in the industry coming up, but in the long run this will probably stimulate the nuclear market.


----------



## condog (16 March 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> I don't agree that further nuclear power station plans will be affected. Is there now no more drilling in the sea for oil after BP ? They will improve and modify their standards and progress. Make it, try it, change it, try it...potentially Japan will move away from nuclear in these regions permanently but that is all.
> 
> Where will we get our plutonium for one?! and no way China is going to just can a massive segment of their power infrastructure. This is and will be a very sobering and educational experience, nothing more.
> 
> In the short and medium term, gas exports and coal will be bumped up for Japan, agree there. I see Germany is suspending some reactors for inspections, so there will be change in the industry coming up, but in the long run this will probably stimulate the nuclear market.




Thats why i said democratic countries. Germany, has suspended, UK is running scenarios on thier 19. Theres too much to change over night, like they did with the BP spill. And yes the BP spill massively affected deep sea drilling. The US has only just allowed new wells to proceed and many companies shelved billions worth of deep sea drilling projects. 

I think your underestimating it if you think the world will ignore this disaster. Japan has the highest technology reactors and safety procedures in the world. Admittedly this is one of thier older reactors, but if this can happen in japan it can happen anywhere. Your probably right they will sit up and take not and increase safety. But make no mistake, oil, gas and coal demand will surge imo on the back of this. 

Countries like Australia that have lobby groups trying to get nuclear power stations up and running have basically lost the ability to convince the population its safe for the next 30 years. In countries with autocratic govt like China it wont affect it imo. 

The US UK and most of democratic Europe will imo develop a not in my back yard approach to new reactors and the obvious short term solution is coal and gas. Clean technologies will take decades to implement.

Dont believe me , just ask yourself this. Would you be comfortable with a nuclear reactor within contamination distance of your house. The answer is no, and democratic countries will for a long time not allow it in thier back yard.


----------



## Assasin (16 March 2011)

Please remember gents that so far, no-one in Japan has been killed at the Nuke plants despite all the dramas, and yet over 20 people have been killed from the explosion and fire at their oil refinery.
Agree with Condog that in the next year or 2 other fuels will be popular but imo modern nuke plants will definately be the future in decades to come.
For AUT's sake, the focus on the nuke plants is taking away the dramas at the oil refinery's.
Ask yourself this, would you want to live next to a refinery?
Just adding to the discussion.


----------



## mr. jeff (16 March 2011)

Good points both Condog and Assasin; I agree that the oil and gas and coal will be a goer, I will wait for the moment to scale further in.

Off topic, can I add that Japan is a very different beast to Australia geologically, as our closest dangerous fault is where our plate pushes against Indonesia. So Australia has a much, much lower risk of high scale earthquakes (we design high rise for max level 7 currently), whereas Japan is just about the highest risk country on the planet. 
Why build so close to the coast and to people? probably for transmission savings and emergency cooling ability from the sea? I know little about this. 

Sorry I am getting way off the mark, thoughts with the Japanese people right now too.

Back to AUT, I am impressed AUT didn't pull back a bit more during this period, perhaps this is an indication of the type of holders in this stock now; but then I wonder whether that means the frantic buying that has pushed AUT along before will temper, and attention will shift to smaller players. (this is no suggestion that AUT has lost anything physically, more the market sentiment) - I remain very keen.

Cheers!


----------



## Sdajii (16 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Please remember gents that so far, no-one in Japan has been killed at the Nuke plants despite all the dramas, and yet over 20 people have been killed from the explosion and fire at their oil refinery.
> Agree with Condog that in the next year or 2 other fuels will be popular but imo modern nuke plants will definately be the future in decades to come.
> For AUT's sake, the focus on the nuke plants is taking away the dramas at the oil refinery's.
> Ask yourself this, would you want to live next to a refinery?
> Just adding to the discussion.




An explosion at an oil refinery may kill people, and sure, that's nasty, but the cleanup is relatively quick and straightforward.

On the other hand, nuclear disasters may not kill people in the initial explosion (but then again, they may do that too). Sure, but, the radioactivity may screw the area up effectively permanently, and do damage to people/crops/environment thousands of kilometers away.

Even ignoring the facts (which from an economics or decision-making point of view are rarely all that important anyway, especially in democratic countries), this is going to give the antinuclear hippies a lot of ammunition, and voters are going to be swayed. NIMBY is going to hinder the nuclear industry in the developed world. If radioactive material is blown over other countries, it won't be pleasant. Even if the levels weren't particularly harmful, I know I'd be pretty damned pissed off if some other country's (or my own!) nuclear reactor dumped radioactive crap on me or my loved ones, or areas I source my food from, etc.


----------



## traderclaude (16 March 2011)

For a bit of perspective put one in the middle of the desert of Australia, low risk.

Don't forget that the USA has somewhere like 500 nuclear submarines sitting off San Diego on the California coast when I last checked and that was a few years ago. 

More a case of assessing the situation and looking at better practices in the future but that will take time. 

I think it can be clean one day with low risk. 

For now lets get on the oil and gas and watch these shares rocket.


----------



## link128 (17 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Please remember gents that so far, no-one in Japan has been killed at the Nuke plants despite all the dramas, and yet over 20 people have been killed from the explosion and fire at their oil refinery.
> Agree with Condog that in the next year or 2 other fuels will be popular but imo modern nuke plants will definately be the future in decades to come.
> For AUT's sake, the focus on the nuke plants is taking away the dramas at the oil refinery's.
> Ask yourself this, would you want to live next to a refinery?
> Just adding to the discussion.




Just to be clear, there have already been confirmed deaths and missing people at the Nuclear power plants. 
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?hp

Thoughts are with these people's families and the workers toughing it out to try and contain the issue.


----------



## poverty (17 March 2011)

US markets smashed overnight, not going to be a pretty day.


----------



## isplicer (17 March 2011)

poverty said:


> US markets smashed overnight, not going to be a pretty day.




For people looking to get on this stock, might not be all that bad =D

But thoughts are genuinely with the Japanese.


----------



## Assasin (17 March 2011)

link128 said:


> Just to be clear, there have already been confirmed deaths and missing people at the Nuclear power plants.
> Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?hp
> 
> Thoughts are with these people's families and the workers toughing it out to try and contain the issue.




Cheers Link128,

  I stand corrected.


----------



## nioka (17 March 2011)

traderclaude said:


> For a bit of perspective put one in the middle of the desert of Australia, low risk..




Not so. Central Australia was used for atom bomb trials. At that time I was a trainee industrial chemist and we were working on trials extracting rare earths from Monazite. Monazite also contains thorium. We discovered radioactivity in local milk, supposedly from fall out, when testing the process for radioactivity. Fallout was detected all over NSW.

Dust storms regularly send inland dust over Melbourne and Sydney. Sometimes as far as New Zealand.Sparsely settled east coast areas are the only possible choice but even those have their NIMBYs. 

Maybe thorium based generation with its low radioactivity and safer characteristics is worth investigating.


----------



## AlexG1 (17 March 2011)

traderclaude said:


> For a bit of perspective put one in the middle of the desert of Australia, low risk.




Sure - it's lower risk, but to do that you need to spend a sh*tload on supporting infrastructure.  There's no high voltage transmission lines,and because it's in the middle of nowhere you have to build a very long transmission line to get it anywhere near where anybody can use it.  That means you have all the power loss over distance things to worry about.  Additionally there's not adequate transport infrastructure to build the thing in the first place.  Is the cost/benefit equation going to stack up?  Probably not.

There's a lot of other promising technologies which have low risk.



Alex.


----------



## condog (17 March 2011)

Claude - they cant go in the desert, they need to be within close proximity to the baseload area. They also need copeous quantities of water. Hence why japan runs them on the coast. 
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2006-07/07rn12.pdf

Back on to AUT, done my buying for the week, time to watch tv as the lemmings watch thier stocks and panic. Enjoy the show. Dont just be a lemming, make your own judgments.  corn:


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (17 March 2011)

condog said:


> Claude - they cant go in the desert, they need to be within close proximity to the baseload area. They also need copeous quantities of water. Hence why japan runs them on the coast.
> http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2006-07/07rn12.pdf
> 
> Back on to AUT, done my buying for the week, time to watch tv as the lemmings watch thier stocks and panic. Enjoy the show. Dont just be a lemming, make your own judgments.  corn:




Agreed. They need water to create the steam and to cool the whole show down. Without the sea water the reactors would be far worse off now. Not to mention employees access to this desert site. Thermal steam is the way to go!

anyways I see AUT dip then come back up. Thats a big plus.. hopefully we wont dip too much over the coming weeks and get some more reports of drilling and production... condog, when's the next date for this? thanks.


----------



## shanti (17 March 2011)

nioka said:


> Not so. Central Australia was used for atom bomb trials. At that time I was a trainee industrial chemist and we were working on trials extracting rare earths from Monazite. Monazite also contains thorium. We discovered radioactivity in local milk, supposedly from fall out, when testing the process for radioactivity. Fallout was detected all over NSW.
> 
> Dust storms regularly send inland dust over Melbourne and Sydney. Sometimes as far as New Zealand.Sparsely settled east coast areas are the only possible choice but even those have their NIMBYs.
> 
> Maybe thorium based generation with its low radioactivity and safer characteristics is worth investigating.




Thank you for this valuable post Nioka. 
Just the fact that dangerous radioactive waste takes (millions of years?) to break down should prompt inteligent people to investigate safe alternatives first. Green energy is expensive and inadequate because it hasn't been properly investigated/ invested into and is only in it's very initial stages of serious research. Look at the power of the ocean, each wave or high tide UNBELIEVABLE energy constantly repeated (without a need to build damms). Surely this unlimited clean energy could be harnessed but who will lobby? Not the powerfull coal lobby hugely propped up by subsidies etc. Why shouldn't we desire and invest in a cleaner, safer planet for our kids and grandkids and for all the beautiful creatures we share the planet with?
Back to AUT- it would make sense to utilise undervalued gas reserves during transition to cleaner energy for the benefit of ALL.
Good luck


----------



## Tuckertime (18 March 2011)

Nice movement overnight on the TSX for AEF and also DOW was positive.  Road to recovery for the market, hopefully closing nicely before the weekend. Yay


----------



## cmxd (18 March 2011)

Last night AEF in TSX closed at $2.880	 
Change: 0.270 (10.34%)Volume: 1,092,387

This morning company announcement: Harbour Advisors (Canada) increased holding from 25,000,000 to 30,495,632, voting power at 7.6%.

Most markets were positive last night, Today's AUT should have a good run.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (18 March 2011)

cmxd said:


> Last night AEF in TSX closed at $2.880
> Change: 0.270 (10.34%)Volume: 1,092,387
> 
> This morning company announcement: Harbour Advisors (Canada) increased holding from 25,000,000 to 30,495,632, voting power at 7.6%.
> ...




Harbor just bought another 1.2% of AUT, nice takeup. Announcement is out today about the change.


----------



## dashwood (18 March 2011)

Not sure why 7.6% ownership by Canadian company and therefore concentration on tsx stock (somewhat inaccessible to minnows) is a good thing but ready to be enlightened!


----------



## condog (18 March 2011)

dashwood said:


> Not sure why 7.6% ownership by Canadian company and therefore concentration on tsx stock (somewhat inaccessible to minnows) is a good thing but ready to be enlightened!




Anything that tightens supply of sellers and thus helps sustain higher prices is a good thing. Its only worrying if they start to acquire too much and thus threaten to take over, robbing us of our future growth. 

Riight now i reckon lots of private holders would sell at $4.50 hostile take over. They wouldnt factor in that they should be seeing sp up around $7-$9 at end of 2011 imo if things go to plan. And higher in 2012. 

I like it that JPMORGAN and Harbour both have a reasonable position, then theres the Stewarts holdings, all making a hostile TO, just that bit harder.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (18 March 2011)

More stocks held be a holder such as Harbour advisors means less selling pressure, seems a gimmie really. I'd love someone to purchase another 1% of any stock I own. Espeically if they are a proven holder.


----------



## dashwood (18 March 2011)

yes let's hope the three big players remain and that no deals are struck so that minnow 'hold'ers don't miss out on full potential


----------



## TabJockey (18 March 2011)

I was looking at some valuation ratios of AUT compared to its contemporaries yesterday and it looks to me like the SP run we had before the carnage of the last week or two was pretty much contingent on a)the number of big brokers pushing the stock and b) the very positive internet forum sentiment.

As a business there are much better buys out there in O&G but they dont have the sentiment push AUT has had. Stock may continue to climb quickly after this current mess is sorted out but I would expect to see some sharp peaks with this one.


----------



## condog (18 March 2011)

TabJockey said:


> I was looking at some valuation ratios of AUT compared to its contemporaries yesterday and it looks to me like the SP run we had before the carnage of the last week or two was pretty much contingent on a)the number of big brokers pushing the stock and b) the very positive internet forum sentiment.
> 
> As a business there are much better buys out there in O&G but they dont have the sentiment push AUT has had. Stock may continue to climb quickly after this current mess is sorted out but I would expect to see some sharp peaks with this one.




What are you basing this on. Yes if you base it on a EV/BOE of course AUT will be low, its got massive massive reserves upside that hasnt really come through in its reserves upgrades yet. It doesnt fit in the box - so to speak. 

If you do the maths and project what thier program will be earning by end of 2011, i think you will regret posting this.
AUT operates with a few premiums, because its upside is monumental compared to some peers and its risk imo is minimal. And end of 2012 is mind blowing.


----------



## Assasin (18 March 2011)

TabJockey said:


> I was looking at some valuation ratios of AUT compared to its contemporaries yesterday and it looks to me like the SP run we had before the carnage of the last week or two was pretty much contingent on a)the number of big brokers pushing the stock and b) the very positive internet forum sentiment.
> 
> As a business there are much better buys out there in O&G but they dont have the sentiment push AUT has had. Stock may continue to climb quickly after this current mess is sorted out but I would expect to see some sharp peaks with this one.




Nice try Jabjockey,
             really informative post. You sure added to the thread. 
No one here has ever said AUT was the be all and end all allthough last years gold medal was worth hanging your hat on.
Come up with something worthwhile.


----------



## kitehigh (18 March 2011)

A great close today up over 11%, glad I took the dip to double my holding's in this stock.


----------



## tradefill (18 March 2011)

kitehigh said:


> A great close today up over 11%, glad I took the dip to double my holding's in this stock.




yeh you did well, i would have done the same if i had money. Opportunities like that are hard to find. Everyone panicking provided that opportunity. Very nice/ needed jump today, hopefully we will soon be back at previous highs and then more...imo aut has been very oversold lately


----------



## cmxd (18 March 2011)

How good AUT is today


----------



## prgudula (18 March 2011)

tradefill said:


> yeh you did well, i would have done the same if i had money. Opportunities like that are hard to find. Everyone panicking provided that opportunity. Very nice/ needed jump today, hopefully we will soon be back at previous highs and then more...imo aut has been very oversold lately




more good update from stoxline


----------



## PinguPingu (18 March 2011)

prgudula said:


> more good update from stoxline





I've only been aware of this site since a few months ago (being a super noob), generally, how accurate do their targets seem to be?


----------



## isplicer (18 March 2011)

I'm really keen to make an entry into this stock at around the $2.85 mark (Why didn't I just buy it yesterday??? ). Any chance of a small blip downward toward the mid-low 2.80 mark sometime next week, or is the general consensus just blue sky from now on?


----------



## tradefill (18 March 2011)

market depth is looking healthier aswell


----------



## tradefill (18 March 2011)

isplicer said:


> I'm really keen to make an entry into this stock at around the $2.85 mark (Why didn't I just buy it yesterday??? ). Any chance of a small blip downward toward the mid-low 2.80 mark sometime next week, or is the general consensus just blue sky from now on?




i've done that a few times, trying to save a few extra cents. These days if the fundamentals are good and the share price is low, such as aut has been recently, i just buy at market so i don't miss out. But I wouldn't worry too much, even at current prices it is still well undervalued imo. Imo blue sky all the way, just not sure about short term movements, the market imo over reacts about anything


----------



## kitehigh (19 March 2011)

tradefill said:


> yeh you did well, i would have done the same if i had money. Opportunities like that are hard to find. Everyone panicking provided that opportunity. Very nice/ needed jump today, hopefully we will soon be back at previous highs and then more...imo aut has been very oversold lately




Thanks.  I first entered this stock after selling out of every thing else and got in a couple of months ago at 2.58.  I than took the opportunity to chase it down in the last couple of days with a purchase at 2.70 and than 2.57 so now my average buy in is at 2.62.
Luckily I sold my house at the end of last year so sitting on plenty of cash that needs to be put to work.


----------



## Tuckertime (19 March 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> I've only been aware of this site since a few months ago (being a super noob), generally, how accurate do their targets seem to be?




This is not a stock advice forum as much as it is a discussion forum, everything you read should be taken as an opinion and you should always DYOR (do your own research).

That said props to condog as he seems to be right on with his findings RE: AUT.


----------



## condog (19 March 2011)

Go back and have a look at the numbers i presented on page 17 of this thread.

You will see that those numbers which seemed overly optimistic to most where in fact exceeded easily by AUT. Right now using a more refined (imo accurate) method now predicts end of 2011 numbers at around $8-$9.60 or so. 

The real biggy is 2012 and 2013 , as the cash flow really begins rolling. 

Note: these are just my numbers. They are an opinion. Whilst they where correct in the past, there are too many extraneous factors to conclude they may be accurate in the future. 

Seek personal advice and Do Your Own Research (DYOR).


----------



## kitehigh (19 March 2011)

condog said:


> Go back and have a look at the numbers i presented on page 17 of this thread.
> 
> You will see that those numbers which seemed overly optimistic to most where in fact exceeded easily by AUT. Right now using a more refined (imo accurate) method now predicts end of 2011 numbers at around $8-$9.60 or so.
> 
> ...




Thanks for your valued research Condog, you obviously put in a lot of time with your research and I wish you all the best with your trading.


----------



## trader8888 (20 March 2011)

Condog.

Im in the process of putting together my own spreadsheet, and was wondering what figures you use in yours.

- What operating costs per barrel do you use? ie 1 barrel costs $30 to extract 
- For CAPEX will you just use how many NET wells AUT will drill that ending CY and x by $8million?  By my calcs i have 15.8 NET AUT wells by end CY 2011 (this is taking into account the wells that have the smaller % interest)
- What sort of OPEX do you use?
- What % of risk do you build into your end valuation?
- to get your foward SP valuations, what sort of valuation methods do you use, (PE ratio PEG ratio)?

Cheers.


----------



## Katie Pie (20 March 2011)

Condog you mentioned an awesome 2012, any hints what your numbers indicate say 30 June and the end of December next year?


----------



## PinguPingu (21 March 2011)

Tuckertime said:


> This is not a stock advice forum as much as it is a discussion forum, everything you read should be taken as an opinion and you should always DYOR (do your own research).
> 
> That said props to condog as he seems to be right on with his findings RE: AUT.




My fault, think I wasn't really clear, not asking about the accuracy of targets on THIS site, but the STOXLINE site that was quoted. Who estimates those targets and how do they get those numbers?


----------



## ob1kinobi (21 March 2011)

I don't actually know, but I'd  guess its a mathematical algorithm of some sort ie a computer program.

As to its accuracy, well there again, I don't know.

I wouldn't be placing my trading decisions in the hands of some computer program  found on the web, but then again perhaps others do...

My suggestion is DYO thinking and analysis and go from there.


----------



## isplicer (21 March 2011)

Entered at 2.95. Wish me luck guys!


----------



## cmxd (21 March 2011)

isplicer said:


> Entered at 2.95. Wish me luck guys!




From a long term view, I believe that is a very good price.

Good luck !!!!


----------



## mytoniix (21 March 2011)

I would think most people would find AUT a mid term product would they not?


----------



## isplicer (21 March 2011)

mytoniix said:


> I would think most people would find AUT a mid term product would they not?




From the research I've done, isn't 2012 onwards the time of (potential) rewards? Of course you may consider this a 'mid term' investment depending on your definition of such (which is arbitrary and thus different for everyone!)


----------



## estseon (21 March 2011)

The two brokers are not talking mid-term and they have targets of £4.50. AUT has an unbroken track record of smashing through brokers' targets. It opened trading on the TSX at $3.60. The price should move as the reserves become recognised by the market and TSX buyers may force an adjustment - example Harbour Advisors, who have bought 5.5m shares since the placing. There should be drilling and production updates soon - there'll be the March quarterly by the end of next month.


----------



## prgudula (23 March 2011)

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1505&EID=27062928

Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd
(AUT $3.10) Buy 

Price Target: $4.50/sh


----------



## skyQuake (23 March 2011)

prgudula said:


> http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1505&EID=27062928
> 
> Aurora Oil & Gas Ltd
> (AUT $3.10) Buy
> ...




Take broker targets with a grain of salt. Esp those that helped facilitate the cap raising for said company.

This report was released 4th March on the way down too.


----------



## condog (23 March 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Take broker targets with a grain of salt. Esp those that helped facilitate the cap raising for said company.
> 
> This report was released 4th March on the way down too.




Not so sky quake, in this case if anything they are far too conservative. Do the numbers yourself and you will see.


----------



## skyQuake (23 March 2011)

condog said:


> Not so sky quake, in this case if anything they are far too conservative. Do the numbers yourself and you will see.




Mid-long term agree with the numbers but who knows what price oil will be in 3 years let alone 3 days; though Euroz neglects to include about 15% of Mkt cap which is overseas..

imo short/mid term there's a few too many people that have hopped on. Just look at thread sentiment here or across the pond.

If you look closely, theres been a fair bit of buying overseas, which has helped prop up the price.

Technically feels like distribution, irrespective of the f/a picture.


----------



## tonudiki (24 March 2011)

condog said:


> Not so sky quake, in this case if anything they are far too conservative. Do the numbers yourself and you will see.




I reckon AUT are VERY vulnerable to a bid at around $4-50 at the moment.

 There must be a few big players running their ruler over AUT right now. 
They know that AUT are going to benefit from:-

1)possibly moving to eventual 40 acre well spacing (or even 20 acre!!),
2) exploiting the Austin chalks
3) expected improved UER's 
4) A higher condensate ratio
5) lower production decline rates
6) approx 15% of acreage not included in reserves figures 
7) etc. etc.

 These should provide multiples of the current SP in the next year or two.

 However, a ~50% premium bid right now at $4-50 might still look tempting to many PI's given that 2 Brokers reports put this figure as a target price. If it was a cash bid, it would also be a real tempter for the Instis in these uncertain (Middle East etc.) times too. 

 Is anyone else having these dark thoughts LOL?


----------



## estseon (24 March 2011)

ton,

I think that you may find that a significant proportion of the shares are held by professional investors and fund managers with longer time horizons. They will also know that the reserves valuation is done on a basis that seems to be questioned by other, larger, O&G companies. That's what Euroz said. Normally, there's a lot of risk to balance against potential but Hilcorp has a pretty good track record. So, I think not and I hope not.


----------



## nioka (24 March 2011)

tonudiki said:


> I reckon AUT are VERY vulnerable to a bid at around $4-50 at the moment.




Bear in mind that a lot of ADI money went into AUT during July last year. The capital gains tax conditions mean that a lot of it will be held until July this year. So look for some sizeable sales around that time. I'll be selling a lot from july onwards regardless of whether or not it has reached $4.50. Maybe not "the" lot but certainly a six figure amount.


----------



## dashwood (24 March 2011)

$2M parcel just bought...reckon a whole lot of manouvring going on


----------



## Assasin (24 March 2011)

Good to see you posting Noika,
     are you still doing a bit of swapping with EKA?


----------



## nioka (24 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> are you still doing a bit of swapping with EKA?




NO. The capital gains tax makes it a poor proposition. If itwasnt for CGT I would trade some for TXN but I am over loaded with EKA.However I do believe that EKA is trailing the pack and could well improve from here at a faster rate than AUT. I have too large a percentage of my funds tied up in AUT,EKA and TXN. Never put all your eggs in one basket.


----------



## Assasin (24 March 2011)

nioka said:


> NO. The capital gains tax makes it a poor proposition. If itwasnt for CGT I would trade some for TXN but I am over loaded with EKA.However I do believe that EKA is trailing the pack and could well improve from here at a faster rate than AUT. I have too large a percentage of my funds tied up in AUT,EKA and TXN. Never put all your eggs in one basket.




I agree, but I believe there would be many out there with overbalanced baskets of AUT but how do you fix it? Not a real fan of selling down in the next few months with whats ahead.
It's a good problem to have though.
Cheers.


----------



## nioka (24 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> I agree, but I believe there would be many out there with overbalanced baskets of AUT but how do you fix it? Not a real fan of selling down in the next few months with whats ahead.
> It's a good problem to have though.
> Cheers.




The only way to fix the tax problem is to let time reduce the tax. It has to be taken into consideration when changing investments. AUT is not the only fiosh in the ocean. I am making larger gains in some other stocks at this stage than I am with holding AUT. Others have more potential than AUT in my estimation allbeit they can carry more risk. Compare the 3 month chart for AUT and EDE.


----------



## Magic Man (24 March 2011)

Not sure whats going on but the buying side for this stock is the highest ive seen it in probably 6 weeks.

108 buyers for 1,219,513 units..

Whats the deal?


----------



## Assasin (24 March 2011)

nioka said:


> The only way to fix the tax problem is to let time reduce the tax. It has to be taken into consideration when changing investments. AUT is not the only fiosh in the ocean. I am making larger gains in some other stocks at this stage than I am with holding AUT. Others have more potential than AUT in my estimation allbeit they can carry more risk. Compare the 3 month chart for AUT and EDE.




Cheers Noika,
             God I wish I could pay to get a few of the posters here around a table and get up to speed on a few things.
Could you imagine having Mir, Condog, Agentm, Estseon, Sharejon, Noika and others in the same room for a couple of hours?:alcohol:


----------



## basilio (24 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Cheers Noika,
> God I wish I could pay to get a few of the posters here around a table and get up to speed on a few things.
> Could you imagine having Mir, Condog, Agentm, Estseon, Sharejon, Noika and others in the same room for a couple of hours?:alcohol:




Probably could do it with a video conference call if you looked at it. Interesting idea. Probably want to have some clarity of purpose behind it rather than just a long rave.


----------



## estseon (24 March 2011)

nioka said:


> Bear in mind that a lot of ADI money went into AUT during July last year. The capital gains tax conditions mean that a lot of it will be held until July this year. So look for some sizeable sales around that time. I'll be selling a lot from july onwards regardless of whether or not it has reached $4.50. Maybe not "the" lot but certainly a six figure amount.




I've just looked at the ASX 12 month chart for AUT and it confirms my memory of that time: there was no particular price or volume spike around then. Doubtless some ADI money was re-invested, some of mine was (but I'm subject to UK CGT so I am indifferent to the 1 year rule) but there was no wall of investment.

As you say, Nioka, there could be more profit to be made elsewhere by acceptance of more risk. But that will always be the case. Each person will have their own investment strategy and appetite for risk. Not everyone will be trying to work all of their capital as hard as possible.

In my view, AUT has reached the stage where it can be left alone to generate value as an investment. No real need to worry about it relatively speaking. But that does not mean to say that the upside is limited or will take a long time to realise. In terms of time, considering that it has taken from 2006 to get thus far with Sugarloaf and the other acreages, a time horizon of 2 - 3 years for further multiples is not all that great.

In any case, you will doubtless conduct a re-appraisal in July, once your holding qualifies for the lower CGT rate.


----------



## butasha (25 March 2011)

tonudiki said:


> I reckon AUT are VERY vulnerable to a bid at around $4-50 at the moment.
> 
> There must be a few big players running their ruler over AUT right now.
> They know that AUT are going to benefit from:-
> ...




I keep hearing rumors of well spacing limitations being lowered but no actual proof the the Railroad commission of Texas has approved this option. My feeble attempts at searching the the Railroad Commission website doesnt show any meetings or documents discussing this option. Any information that you would care to share with me in regars to this topic would be appreciated.


----------



## cmxd (25 March 2011)

nioka said:


> Bear in mind that a lot of ADI money went into AUT during July last year. The capital gains tax conditions mean that a lot of it will be held until July this year. So look for some sizeable sales around that time. I'll be selling a lot from july onwards regardless of whether or not it has reached $4.50. Maybe not "the" lot but certainly a six figure amount.




Thanks, Nioka.

I checked AUT nearly one year chart, didn't find much volume of trading around July 2010. The capital gain tax benefit is based on how long people hold the stock rather than financial year,  if holding more than 12 month, will only pay 50% of the gain for the tax when people sell the stock in that Financial year. My one year large holding amount will be due on August, but I still like to hold it by then.

Good luck to all AUT holders especially long term holders.


----------



## trader8888 (25 March 2011)

article on shale declines.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/

would love to hear feedback on it.


----------



## Assasin (26 March 2011)

trader8888 said:


> article on shale declines.
> 
> http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
> 
> would love to hear feedback on it.




Yeah, thats a good read Trader,
      certainly raises a few issues on declines, time will tell. May also have a bearing on well spacings, if the wells get to close, does that increase declines. I guess we need to ask why 80 acre separation in the first place. Who came up with it and why?
    The article also raises some dodgy practices going on regarding auditing.
    Cheers.


----------



## condog (26 March 2011)

butasha said:


> I keep hearing rumors of well spacing limitations being lowered but no actual proof the the Railroad commission of Texas has approved this option. My feeble attempts at searching the the Railroad Commission website doesnt show any meetings or documents discussing this option. Any information that you would care to share with me in regars to this topic would be appreciated.




This has nothing to do with the Rail Road Com. Its a choice of each particular company. Irrespective of what spacing they decide to drill the TRRC has requirment of one well per 320 acres or per 640 acres to maintain the leases.

So what you are seeing first is that they need to punch one well per 640 or 320, depending on the TRRC requirement. Once they have met that requirement, then you may see them choosing to reduce well psacing. But whilever time and capital are required to meet lease obligations they wont be reducing well spacing. The main reduction in well spacing imo will occur in 2013 -2017. They may begin to try a few in late 2011 or 2012 but it wont be on any large scale imo. 

Surely though they will choose to drop a couple to learn and prepare for future development plans. As going forward you reaqlly need to know where your future growth is coming from. At some point Hilcorp will have to try and see just how tight they are going to be able to drill this acerage. As if its only going to be feasable to do 60 or 80 acre spacing they will be needing to sure up more acerage. If however they can drill down to say 30 acre spacing, then they will have several extra years worth of development on this acerage.


----------



## estseon (26 March 2011)

I think (but do not know) that the 80 acre nonsense is an assumption made in the reserves valuation rules.

As to closer spacing affecting declines, you have to visualise what is happening. 

This is my guess - I'm not a petrogeologist:

The rock is impermeable - the O&G won't flow - it might seep but it's not like sandstone. That is why it needs to be artificially fractured or flowed off natural fractures (such as what was done with Kowalik 1 in the overlying chalk).  The gas & oil escapes from the rock from the surfaces created by inducing the fissures in the rock. The fast initial decline arises as the gas and oil on and just under the newly created surface escapes.

The drainage area is basically defined by the lateral propagation of the induced fissures. However, though the fissures travel further laterally than they do vertically because of the layered structure of the rock (sediment laid down over millions of years crushed under its own weight and then deposits overlaid), the fraccing crew have to ensure that the fissures do not penetrate the geological seals above and below the formation as, otherwise, as happened with Sugarloaf 1, there could be water ingress from a lower strata or escape of the hydrocarbons into upper strata (not a problem for the shale because the upper strata is the Austin chalk reservoir).

That suggests that the induced fissures are designed to fan out from the periodic penetrations of the casing a distance roughly equal to half the thickness of the shale horizon or somewhere around 75 ft.

That then gives you a basis for calculating the drainage footprint: 2 x 75 x 5,000 sq ft. That is about 17 acres. 

A rather long story to get to "20 acre spacings".

The pretty picture will be spoilt by natural fracturing and weaknesses in the rock, which could lead to 'connectivity' between wells drilled closely. AUT had that with a couple of the Turnbull wells - don't think that it gives rise to problems that cannot be solved.

The short length of propagation of the fissures also explains the >20 fracs done on a well. If 75 ft is the right figure, the fissures fanning out from the penetrations will join for fracs at 150ft intervals. They have mentioned 23 fracs in the case of one well, which would be about 200ft intervals.

I don't see how they can frac in zones that have natural fracturing - I would have thought that they would get screen outs.

So that could be the story.


----------



## mir (27 March 2011)

estseon
Kowalik 1 had natural fractures , I'm pretty sure they fraced 3 out of 4 sections with no problems of screen outs  & on the 4 section the liner split on a joint, at the time it was pretty disappointing as kowalik 1 could of been a reasonable result give it was a slotted liner .


----------



## isplicer (28 March 2011)

Condog, what are your views regarding the following article on shale decline that was posted somewhere above? I've had a read through it and I wasn't able to draw any conclusions from it relating to the impact (if any at all) on AUT.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/


----------



## condog (29 March 2011)

AUT  should be releasing an operational update very soon, its been a while.


----------



## Magic Man (29 March 2011)

condog said:


> AUT  should be releasing an operational update very soon, its been a while.




Hope so.. We need something to get the SP going in the right direction again.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 March 2011)

Hey guys by the way aurora has a new look website and in fact it's far better than before. Bit if generic info on it.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (30 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hey guys by the way aurora has a new look website and in fact it's far better than before. Bit if generic info on it.



When do you think it changed (if it did)? It looks like the same website I've seen before, and the individual webpage information, indicates they were last modified on the 1st March, 2011... am I missing something?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> When do you think it changed (if it did)? It looks like the same website I've seen before, and the individual webpage information, indicates they were last modified on the 1st March, 2011... am I missing something?




I haven't seen it in a few months. New to me anyways. Good share traction today. Hopefully we can gain on the next round of production results. $105 oil is looking good.


----------



## prgudula (31 March 2011)

2011 Financial Report

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1507&EID=74158658

Annual Information Form

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1508&EID=20549813


----------



## dashwood (31 March 2011)

let's hope we get a revival otherwise headed for another sign of what management refers to in quotes as the "company’s share ownership  has become increasingly 
international".  Seems a euphormism for ...cheap buys by those trading  on tsx!


----------



## traderclaude (31 March 2011)

I  thought there would be a kick along today with Obama announcing the US will focus on domestic gas more closely.

They sell to the US right?

Pretty tempting to throw some money at it.


----------



## dashwood (1 April 2011)

Remembering the 28th Feb saw the tsx listing take the time to look at the share price graph! Perhaps a sound lesson in the perils of dual listing. We live and learn roll on end of the financial. Wonder what the ownership stats are looking like now.


----------



## skyQuake (1 April 2011)

dashwood said:


> Remembering the 28th Feb saw the tsx listing take the time to look at the share price graph! Perhaps a sound lesson in the perils of dual listing. We live and learn roll on end of the financial. Wonder what the ownership stats are looking like now.




About 10~15% is owned in Canada, its also been Canadian BUYING that has helped support the price after the listing.


----------



## dashwood (1 April 2011)

We must be talking about different stocks it previously needed no 'support'


----------



## Magic Man (1 April 2011)

People seem to be getting a bit toey about AUT.. Condog can you remind us of you own valuation for this stock in the next 12 months. Production report should be due out next week!


----------



## condog (1 April 2011)

Id prefer to just say they are drilling and fraccing away with 4 rigs on site. With a target of 60 wells in 2011, thats 5 wells per month in the best part of the entire eagleford at approx 25% NRI. 

On a net basis its more then one net well per month, with a cash flow of approx $8-12 net p.a. per net well. Thats an increased cash flow of $96M to $144M in this 12 months. On a PE of 10 thats an mcap increase of 900M to 1.4B. 

These figures may or may not eventuate, do your own research and calculations. 

I have a hard time seeing it under $8 in Dec 2011 if targets are met and exceeded like last year. But i could be entirely wrong. LAst year they exceeded my expectations.


----------



## Magic Man (1 April 2011)

condog said:


> Id prefer to just say they are drilling and fraccing away with 4 rigs on site. With a target of 60 wells in 2011, thats 5 wells per month in the best part of the entire eagleford at approx 25% NRI.
> 
> On a net basis its more then one net well per month, with a cash flow of approx $8-12 net p.a. per net well. Thats an increased cash flow of $96M to $144M in this 12 months. On a PE of 10 thats an mcap increase of 900M to 1.4B.
> 
> ...





I find it interesting how the oil price has effectively gone up 25 percent the past 6 weeks and AUT has gone nowhere and interest has been declining.. I believe the true boost for the share price will be when companies like AUT and TXN release there next round of profits and guidance. Its very interesting to see company SPs like Oil search and Santos go upward and yet AUT is almost showing more downside then up.. Great couple of days for TXN, comment in the TXN forum but do you see the stock holding these levels?


----------



## skyQuake (1 April 2011)

dashwood said:


> We must be talking about different stocks it previously needed no 'support'




meant listing as in listing in Canada, it had a bit of a run then fell over with japan. All the while au was selling it down, but there was good buying in Canada

Would like to see a proper break from this $3 range


----------



## bbker (1 April 2011)

Gotta laugh at the bot manipulation with the single digit trades going on followed by the 5 figure ones. 

I watch a fair few small cap stocks and I've only noticed it here and with SEA.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (1 April 2011)

bbker said:


> Gotta laugh at the bot manipulation with the single digit trades going on followed by the 5 figure ones.
> 
> I watch a fair few small cap stocks and I've only noticed it here and with SEA.




I posted an image in the SEA forum bbker... I was thinking the same thing.. can you look at my image and confirm? These trades should be outlawed.. surely no one would buy less than 10 shares of such a small cap without a reason.. ie: manipulation. However, good chance to buy in I guess..


----------



## trader8888 (1 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I posted an image in the SEA forum bbker... I was thinking the same thing.. can you look at my image and confirm? These trades should be outlawed.. surely no one would buy less than 10 shares of such a small cap without a reason.. ie: manipulation. However, good chance to buy in I guess..




BGG

Its called "Algorithmic trading" and is totaly legel (at the moment anyway)

Link for anyone who is interested - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading

On to AUT - Lets an operations update already!! looks as though money moving out and into TXN lol i no some off mine will at the end of this month.


----------



## bbker (1 April 2011)

Hey BGG,
I couldn't find your image but I have been monitoring the 2 oilers for the last couple of months each day and that's the obvious conclusion.



BrightGreenGlow said:


> I posted an image in the SEA forum bbker... I was thinking the same thing.. can you look at my image and confirm? These trades should be outlawed.. surely no one would buy less than 10 shares of such a small cap without a reason.. ie: manipulation. However, good chance to buy in I guess..


----------



## TabJockey (1 April 2011)

Bloody hell the AUT people get restless when new highs are not being made every week!


----------



## Sdajii (2 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I find it interesting how the oil price has effectively gone up 25 percent the past 6 weeks and AUT has gone nowhere and interest has been declining.. I believe the true boost for the share price will be when companies like AUT and TXN release there next round of profits and guidance. Its very interesting to see company SPs like Oil search and Santos go upward and yet AUT is almost showing more downside then up.. Great couple of days for TXN, comment in the TXN forum but do you see the stock holding these levels?




I find this puzzling too, it's amazing over the last couple of weeks, hearing people talking about oil going "*down* to near $100 per barrel"    Very recently, $100 per barrel seemed like something from a distant hypothetic future. But I think TabJockey hit the nail on the head. We're so used to AUT smashing out new highs every week or two that when it doesn't for a while (when it acts like most companies do most of the time) we think something is strange. I'm not in a hurry to sell, I see value being added, I think we'll have a good run at some stage over the next month or two or three unless we get some massive global disaster or economic collapse happening, and the only reason this period of stability bothers me is that I don't have enough money to top up at the moment. If I manage to get some funds together before it moves again I'll be glad it sat still for a while.


----------



## estseon (2 April 2011)

Remember that it's about 12 months (the magic CGT 12 months) since Hilcorp started to get things together. There could be many investors who bought around 40c as a punt on Hilcorp succeeding and they may be top slicing. The brokers last put up targets of $4.50 and AUT has previously smashed through every target fairly quickly.


----------



## condog (4 April 2011)

estseon said:


> Remember that it's about 12 months (the magic CGT 12 months) since Hilcorp started to get things together. There could be many investors who bought around 40c as a punt on Hilcorp succeeding and they may be top slicing. The brokers last put up targets of $4.50 and AUT has previously smashed through every target fairly quickly.




The sales going through that are holding the sp down are pretty small volumes, and there has been a long absence of operational updates. Im not concerned at all. 

60 wells in 2011 will drive value. I do however want to see some cash entering the balance sheet from those earlier wells.


----------



## trader8888 (4 April 2011)

condog said:


> The sales going through that are holding the sp down are pretty small volumes, and there has been a long absence of operational updates. Im not concerned at all.
> 
> 60 wells in 2011 will drive value. I do however want to see some cash entering the balance sheet from those earlier wells.




Condog, check the 2011 financial report, results for the six months ended 31 December 2010

- Revenue for the Period was US$1.2 million, including revenue from production net of royalties from post farm out wells that began production during the months of November and December 2010.


----------



## condog (4 April 2011)

I noticed our little cousin EKA made a nice little acqusition , substantially increasing thier net acres in the EFS.

The thing that makes me more comfortable with AUT, is that even though its priced with a premium built in, its managed to acquire its acerage right in the known and tested sweet spot. 

This location that EKA have just acquired, whilst it may or may not be in the condensate window its much higher risk then Excellsior, simply due to its locationwhich hasnt been as extensively drilled as that surrounding excellsior.  Mind you they got it at a bargain basement price.


----------



## Sharejon (4 April 2011)

I hold more AUT than EKA, but in terms of value at the moment EKA takes the cake.

I agree that AUT is fantastic for the sheer safety of it, although if you consider these facts, eka looks great: 

EKA's market cap is currently 80 million, with 1500 sugarloaf acres

AUT's market cap is 1.15 billion, with 15,600 sugarloaf/longhorn/ipanema/excelsior acres.

Even when you don't include the Fayette County or the newly acquired 3,975 acre land holding, it is easy to see the value in EKA, even when compared to AUT.

With things in the Fayette kicking along in the next couple of months + any new information of wells in the Burleson and Washington Counties................. put it this way, there is alot of money which could be made in Eureka, alot!

EKA's new acreage might have EUR's of 250,000 boep/d per well, compared to 500,000 in the sweeter regions, but it could still be an unbelievably economically beneficial opportunity, none-the-less.


----------



## Sharejon (5 April 2011)

As a heads up I'm not for one moment implying 250,000 EUR's could be achieved on eka's new acreage, but if it did that'd be a very good scenario.

Back to AUT, this up and coming production update seems to be well and truly overdue. The sugarloaf production update is overdue, let alone the update on what's happening in the other AMI's!

I'm expecting it to be jam-packed with production figures, it should be great (mind you it's taken a while).


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (5 April 2011)

With the updates not coming through as usual what would be the reasoning? Waiting for a development? Bad results maybe?


----------



## estseon (5 April 2011)

Sharejon said:


> I hold more AUT than EKA, but in terms of value at the moment EKA takes the cake.
> 
> I agree that AUT is fantastic for the sheer safety of it, although if you consider these facts, eka looks great:
> 
> ...




What is so attractive about AUT is its transparency. We know what we have and we now have a feel for the operator's ability. It might be more boring but, if they continue to pile on the value, I'm all for a bit of stress-free appreciation of my capital.

EKA might do very well out of its other acquisitions and so the upside in terms of multiples might be greater. But it will take some time to convince the market.  There's certainly a case for investing in something a bit more exciting but I don't feel that the two can be compared because the new acquisitions may prove to be a drag on the price until success starts to be reported. That is happening in the UK with Empyrean, which is currently traded at a little more than 1/3rd of NPV10/share for the 3p Sugarloaf reserves. Success in at least one of its other projects might release some of the damper on the Sugarloaf reserves value.

EKA may overtake AUT but I don't think that it will mark time with it until it de-risks its other projects.


----------



## AngusSmart (5 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> With the updates not coming through as usual what would be the reasoning? Waiting for a development? Bad results maybe?






Wasnt it in one of the latest reports about not having as frequent updates?? or was i dreaming?


----------



## TabJockey (5 April 2011)

No offence to fundamental holders but AUT looks like a fantastic technical short trade candidate ATM.


----------



## trader8888 (5 April 2011)

TabJockey said:


> No offence to fundamental holders but AUT looks like a fantastic technical short trade candidate ATM.




Could'nt agree more, and untill they release the operations update it will keep on drifting down IMO.


----------



## Magic Man (5 April 2011)

Its going down because the volume is pathetic.. lets buy 1 stock of AUT or hang on lets buy 9 stock of AUT...TERRIBLE. JUST MY OPINION


----------



## trader8888 (5 April 2011)

new well application - DEWBRE-JOHNSON UNIT


----------



## skyQuake (5 April 2011)

more bids hitting mkt than asks but asks continuously being refreshed today. Prob someone with a lot of stock to move


----------



## estseon (5 April 2011)

TabJockey said:


> No offence to fundamental holders but AUT looks like a fantastic technical short trade candidate ATM.




They should be reporting the 1st qtr within the next 3 weeks or so and that will have detail of the first real cash to flow in from production. It is possible that the directors might give an indication of progress in converting 3p reserves to 2p by new drilling and production since 31/12.

For my part, I'd be quite happy for there to be a substantial short position out there in the market when that report is released.


----------



## youngone (6 April 2011)

Anyone else holding AUT? Why all the noise but SP is heading down?


----------



## sparkie (6 April 2011)

yeah ...one has to wonder 

there hasnt been much going on in weeks


----------



## trader8888 (6 April 2011)

youngone said:


> Anyone else holding AUT? Why all the noise but SP is heading down?




Ive been holding since 40c youngone and am still holding. Its been more than a month since the last production update and i suspect a few are selling because its not exciting enough for them and the 12mt CGT tax break will be up for a lot of people so they may be selling a % of their portfolio. This should change come the operation updates and quarterly activity report.


----------



## Magic Man (6 April 2011)

Is anyone buying AUT today??


----------



## trader8888 (6 April 2011)

Another 2 well applications -
- HOLLAND-BROWN UNIT 
- HOLLAND-OPIELA UNIT


----------



## dashwood (6 April 2011)

looks like the mounties got their men up....let's hope they get things movin on both markets!


----------



## Sharejon (6 April 2011)

Here is what I posted on the EKA forum regarding the Sugarloaf, I'll change the values to suit AUT's interest.

We own 3700 acres net, out of the 24000 gross sugarloaf acres. 

3700 acres / 80 acre spacings = a total of 46.25 wells for AUT over the duraction of the Sugarloaf. I'll use 80 acre spacings for these calcs but in the future 60 acre spacings will probably come into play, with the possibility of slightly even tighter spacings eventually.

Expenses first: This data comes from NSAI's assumptions for the December 2010 reserves report (located in AUT's investor presentation from March 8)

18.75 net wells * $6.75 million per well = $126.6 million we have to pay for capital expenses over the duration of the Sugarloaf.

We also pay $20,000 per well/month. Let's assume the well flows for 15 years (EOG investor reports show a possible flow of 20 years)

That's $3.6 million per well over this 15 year period.

In other words roughly $10.35 million per well, capital and operating expenses.

Revenue:

If we assume a possible 500K EUR, that's equivalent to $54 million (p.o. $108/barrel) revenue from this well.

54-10.35 = roughly $44 million per well of profit (before tax and royalties)

After royalties of 25%, this = $33 million

after corporate tax of 35%, this = $21.45 million

$21.45 million * 46.25 = $992 million


N.B. These rough calculations are using 80 acre wells spacings. The potential of 60 and possibly 40 acres could very well (60 acre well spacings probably will) come into play in the future. If 60 acre spacings eventuate, that $990 million could possible turn into something like $1.5 billion.

So although the growth would be steady over 10 years or so, share price growth of 5 times purely from the Sugarloaf is very much achievable, and this is using the current assumptions. An AUT broker report has said that AUT's reserves could increase by as much as 10 times with tighter well spacings and new fraccing technology.


----------



## prgudula (7 April 2011)

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1514&EID=68408270

SUGARKANE FIELD OPERATIONS AND PRODUCTION UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations and
production at the Longhorn, Ipanema and Excelsior Areas of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the
Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Across Aurora’s gross acreage position of 73,000 acres there are presently 4 drilling rigs and 2
fracture stimulation crews operating. With drilling times averaging 26 days for each well, activity
remains on target to complete approximately 60 wells within that area during the 2011 calendar
year.
Production Data
The Sienkiewicz well has now been on production for a period of 60 days with pleasing results as
outlined below:-
AMI Working
Interest
Total Gas
Production
(mmscf)
Total
Condensate
Production
(bbls)
Average Daily
Equivalent Oil
Rate (boe/d)*
Sienkiewicz #1H Longhorn 25% 120.6 39,352 957


----------



## kitehigh (7 April 2011)

The market is not to impressed by the production update, seems like a lot of people are now selling out this morning.  I thought the update was positive?


----------



## Assasin (7 April 2011)

You may have to wait a bit for the report to be digested.
There are huge upswings in that report from time taken to drill, being on target for the year and the amount of oil and gas going to sales.
Very exciting.:


----------



## kitehigh (7 April 2011)

Assasin said:


> You may have to wait a bit for the report to be digested.
> There are huge upswings in that report from time taken to drill, being on target for the year and the amount of oil and gas going to sales.
> Very exciting.:




Exactly what I thought, yet it's getting sold off big time this morning.  Must be a lot out there who think other wise and are getting out.  Maybe they are long time holders who brought in at way cheaper prices and have decided to take their profits now and look for something a bit more exciting.  I hope that is the reason anyway.


----------



## adobee (7 April 2011)

first time i have seen AUT start to slip a bit... whilst it maybe for aut holders its not uncommon that stocks do go backwards sometimes...   Interesting to see if their is a change in substanial holding out soon and it is someone existing or fund existing their position... Keeping my eye on an entry point ..


----------



## Joe Blow (7 April 2011)

I don't want to see any more posts in ALL CAPS in this thread please. 

There's absolutely no need for it.


----------



## TabJockey (7 April 2011)

Good fundamental news...heavy selling. Not a good sign. Probably wont see the end of this slide untill next week.


----------



## Assasin (7 April 2011)

kitehigh said:


> Exactly what I thought, yet it's getting sold off big time this morning.  Must be a lot out there who think other wise and are getting out.  Maybe they are long time holders who brought in at way cheaper prices and have decided to take their profits now and look for something a bit more exciting.  I hope that is the reason anyway.




I've held this stock for well over 12 months and I can't speak for other LT holders, but I wouldn't sell at these levels. What else would you put your money into.
Condog has always blown me away with the acuracy of his targets, but even if you take a conservative view, $5 is my target for end of year.

Magic, I'm now out of money but would love to take on another parcel.

Holding, AUT, EKA, TXN, HOG, MHM.


----------



## kitehigh (7 April 2011)

Assasin said:


> I've held this stock for well over 12 months and I can't speak for other LT holders, but I wouldn't sell at these levels. What else would you put your money into.
> Condog has always blown me away with the acuracy of his targets, but even if you take a conservative view, $5 is my target for end of year.
> 
> Magic, I'm now out of money but would love to take on another parcel.
> ...




Yes exactly.  I have been buying up Gold/Silver stocks as well as I believe they will do well in the future.  I will watch it closely and maybe even look to add to my position if it falls much further.


----------



## Noskcid (7 April 2011)

Yeah, Im thinking about topping up on a bit with this one. See how it goes in the next week or so.


----------



## kitehigh (7 April 2011)

Noskcid said:


> Yeah, Im thinking about topping up on a bit with this one. See how it goes in the next week or so.




It bounced off 2.68 quite quickly and now back to 2.72.  I was lining up an entry and than I saw the bounce so I will just see how it goes as well.


----------



## Assasin (7 April 2011)

Noskcid said:


> Yeah, Im thinking about topping up on a bit with this one. See how it goes in the next week or so.




Just be carefull waiting on AUT. It's had a habit of bouncing very quickly to new levels.

But seriously, have a good look at where it has come from, where it is now, and where it is going. Todays report is a taste ot things to come. A good 1st quarter report due out later this month will also set the tone financially. IMO.
Good luck.


----------



## kyrondgm (7 April 2011)

Any chance some big players are shorting the stock in anticipation of a big rise in the near future? Otherwise this drop defies all logic. Giving some people a good chance to top up regardless. AKA me.


----------



## Mister Mark (7 April 2011)

A lot of very small trades as well, for what reason one would wonder?


----------



## skyQuake (7 April 2011)

kyrondgm said:


> Any chance some big players are shorting the stock in anticipation of a big *fall* in the near future? Otherwise this drop defies all logic. Giving some people a good chance to top up regardless. AKA me.




fix'd that for u

Gap fill at 2.68 bounce yesterday; Now back to there to crack stops imo


----------



## isplicer (7 April 2011)

Dowwwn it goes! 2.67 - anyone topping up?


----------



## kyrondgm (7 April 2011)

skyQuake said:


> fix'd that for u
> 
> Gap fill at 2.68 bounce yesterday; Now back to there to crack stops imo




haha thanks mate, that was just plain silly of me


----------



## Flipper (7 April 2011)

isplicer said:


> Dowwwn it goes! 2.67 - anyone topping up?




Topped up at 2.69 just before close. Hopefully things turn around a bit tomorrow.


----------



## condog (7 April 2011)

Looks like damn good value to me.  Look at all those wells waiting and about to be untapped at a rate of one per week and a bit. They are drilling at a phenominal pace now, all the time adding value.

Flow rates have been fantastic and declines rediculously good. 

Top up opportunity 

Thats rediculous to fall on that news. Its been light volume taking us down, so watch the rebound as it drys up.

I think many where hoping for flow flow flow and got wait wait wait. thier loss in time. 

I guess you could say weve had the pull back and consolidation that we needed and time has allowed value to catch back up. Shouldnt be too long imo and we will be notching up some new highs. As these energy prices are fantastic for our repayment times.  They are basically 25% higher then we where working on a few months ago. This translates to imo about 40% faster well repayments. As the profit margin is factorial in the way it increases with oil price.

Eg if our costs all up for opex and capex, tax royalties and lease payments  of each well is say $35boe, (this is a hypothetical number)then if we sell at $70 we get $35boe profit, where as if we sell at $105 we get $70boe profit. Or repay well costs at twice the pace.

Id like to see Jon hedging his prices at $100+ as it safely puts the company in a fantastic position going forward.


----------



## estseon (7 April 2011)

With the wells seeming to flow at around the 900 boepd level and current prices, they should be paying for themselves over 3-4 months. The Excelsior wells must be cheaper to drill so, if they flow at similar rates, they'll pay back even faster. Looking forward to the quarterly report to see how the older wells' production is averaging out. There should be some broker reaction to this release and the brokers have a better view on how the Board is viewing the performance because of their contact. Fraccing is still causing a bit of a log jam.


----------



## condog (7 April 2011)

Esteon, thats the way i was thinking when i read it 900boepd is an amazing result and look at all thos wells successfully drilled, with no problems, in good time. As they begin fraccing and results start rolling in at 900boepd etc with good declines and these high prices, i think its going to reignite the share price.


----------



## Sharejon (7 April 2011)

Estseon you are too right when you say fraccing is becoming jammed up.  New wells are being drilled at incredibly rapid times, and the fraccing is falling well behind.

It's not surprising though, the fraccing crews and equipment seem to be in far less supply than drilling crews/equipment.


----------



## condog (7 April 2011)

Sharejon said:


> Estseon you are too right when you say fraccing is becoming jammed up.  New wells are being drilled at incredibly rapid times, and the fraccing is falling well behind.
> 
> It's not surprising though, the fraccing crews and equipment seem to be in far less supply than drilling crews/equipment.




Incredibly more complicated and skilled is the issue. They just cant ramp the number of crews up, because the cost of failure is too high. I cant see more then a few frac crews each year being added, so think hilcorp so far has done an amazing job with the progress of fracs so far. With 4 rigs now they are going to need to secure a second full time crew. Especially given, im lead to believe Hilcorp still use our ft crew occasionally on thier KKR JV EFS acerage. 

Its a bit quicker now with the three phase fraccing has been canned. Im interested to see if we will hear an announcment with the pulsated fraccing, being used successfully.

Jon is off to the US again this weekend. Hopefully to acquire some more prime acerage. Will we see a new acquisition in the pipeline. lets hope so.


----------



## condog (7 April 2011)

Go and do a Google news search on "US Debt Limit"

You will find the US is bumping on its 74 times altered debt limit , sitting presently at $14.92Trillion of an allowed $15 Trillion in debt. Most articles are suggesting $2Trillion will be required for Obama to see out this term.

They have 3 choices as i see it.
1. Increase the limit
2. Default on debt payments - and cause a global economic tsunami
3. Cease all govt spending, raise taxes immediately until such time as they have cash flow to resume govt operations. 

Guess which one they will choose. Yep if i where betting on this ide choose number 1. Why not - let your successors do the tough yards as every other of the 74 previous increases have done since 1917.

So whats it mean for us as AUT investors. Well if no 2 or 3 is chosen all our investments and Barrack Obama will be up in smoke. So given im betting they will simply increase the limit possibly by either $2Trillion or several times by many hundreds of billions, im seeing an inflationary boom.

Oil up, food up, all commodities up. Couple this added money supply with China India Vietnam etc etc Brazil etc emerging economies increasing thier demand and yep brace yourself for dearer everything. Good news for AUT and other oilers if im right. Bad if im wrong. Either way keep your eye on the US congresses decision.

The only thing that will be getting cheaper will be trips to the US as theyre currency gets pummeled some more.

The US has around 140M individual tax payers, its corporations basically pay little tax , as they pay the govt election campaigns (br_b_), sounds like tribe..... divide that debt by 140M and then consider the consequences of the baby boomers about to retire if they can, and the picture for future american taxpayers looks very bleak.

But at least we will be able to sell them cheap gas.


----------



## mir (7 April 2011)

this was also in the euroz report about frac crews

A second frac crew in the field area should facilitate bringing on-line the 10 or so wells currently awaiting frac over the next 2 months: this will have a huge impact on revenue generation in the Jun and Sep Qs.

This should be favourably augmented by the new wet-gas pipeline currently being commissioned in the field, enabling more relaxed choke settings for greater early-stage production.


----------



## Sharejon (8 April 2011)

Thanks for those quotes Mir, they're short but very important. I was just thinking earlier on about this issue. The September Quarter in particular should be a huge one. Whilst the June quarter will definitely experience flow-rates from alot these 10 wells, alot of them would only be flowing for half the june quarter.

What should be a huge kick-along in the June Quarterly will be the production rate at the end of the quarter.

I also read somewhere that AUT is planning to have 5,000 boep/d after royalties by the end of the year, and for the 2011 Calender year to have an average production rate of 3,400 boep/d after royalties.

We all knew of these 5,000 or 5,500 boep/d figures, but I'm not sure if the company mentioned that they were 'post royalty' targets. It makes that 5,500 figure make more sense now, however it still could be conservative (as a post royalty production figure)

I forget whether 'post royalty rates' were mentioned when we discussed how conservative the 5,500 boep/d figure in company presentations seemed to be a few months ago.


----------



## Sharejon (8 April 2011)

Additionally Mir,

Did the Euroz report mention anything in regards to Sugarloaf proceedings?

There are quite a numbers of wells drilled and awaiting fraccing there as well.

Cheers.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (8 April 2011)

I might have misread but they talked about the Foster we in Ipanema having a record flow pressure. Waiting for the 30 day production means a month from now I guess once recorded. This might be of some interest? Also generally speaking how long does the average well take to frac if successful? Seems to be the weak link in the process to production. With 4 rings drilling a well a month. You'd hope fracing would only take a week but that obviously isnt the case?


----------



## condog (8 April 2011)

Price Target: $4.50/sh
 Reason For Update: Operations Update

What We Know:           60-day production results from the Sienkiewicz-1H well (AUT 25%) saw gross cumulative production of 120.6mmscf and 39,352bbls.
This equates to an average of 957boepd over the 60 days; the wells remain on highly restricted choke settings.
Drilling continues to point to a trend of increasing formation pressure towards the east extents of AUT’s acreage.
A bank of wells are awaiting fracture stimulation across AUT’s acreage.
Combining the Q’ly results with the recently released and most up to date 30 and 60 day numbers we present total gross production in the table below:





What We Think:AUT’s latest results continue to demonstrate consistency, particularly since application of restricted choke settings on new wells post the Morgan well.
From the data compiled above, we can see average production rates over 60 days are consistently around the 800-1000boepd – the latest Sienkiewicz data is no exception.
And it is this consistency in terms of production – with respect to both average rate (ie 900boe/d over the first 120 days) as well as rates of decline (negligible over the corresponding period) – that underpins the project economics.
What is glaringly apparent from the data compiled above, is how the return on capital is strongly leveraged to commodity price strength.  
Revenue generation is strong from the first 2mnths of production with av. 40% of the US$8.5m tied-in well costs being recovered from Net Revenue Interest production in that period.
On this basis, an average payback of 6mnths, with average production rates still well above 500boepd on payback makes for attractive economics.
A second frac crew in the field area should facilitate bringing on-line the 10 or so wells currently awaiting frac over the next 2 months: this will have a huge impact on revenue generation in the Jun and Sep Qs.
This should be favourably augmented by the new wet-gas pipeline currently being commissioned in the field, enabling more relaxed choke settings for greater early-stage production.
We view that demonstration of revenue generation is the next important milestone for the Company.
This will encourage valuations based cash flow and IRR rather than the somewhat limited $/acre peer metrics currently deemed relevant in the shale space.
We expect circa US$5m to have been generated in the Mar Q for AUT’s interest and that this should grow 8-fold over the remainder of CY’11.
This augers well for AUT to achieve net share production of +2.5kboe/d by mid-CY’11 and exit the CY at 5kboe/d.

Investment Case:
On-going operational results continue to build on the quality argument for AUT’s Sugarkane Field interests. Sub-10% month-on-month decline rates are exceptional and deliverability from these wells is underpinning best-in-play pay-backs. Consistency in results gives us a high degree of confidence for the economics of full-field development as well as growth to all reserves categories.  *We set a price target of $4.50/sh as we believe our assumptions remain conservative given the out-performance of AUT’s wells to date.* 
Furthermore, we expect as AUT’s acreage demonstrates profitability within the next 18mnths, AUT will earn a premium noting that its growth to reserves, production and cash flow is not compromised by geological risk and that field production decline is some 10yrs away.


----------



## condog (8 April 2011)

Aother update out
Direct access with great flows and low declines - 60 day flow at 666boepd
Hollman at 884 boepd for its 30 day flow. 

All good news, these flows continue to be very impressive, incredibly economic imo and will continue to impprove valuations going forward. 

With Sienck  yester day in the high 900's this should sustain AUT valuations.

note the sell numbers taking us down are tiny, looks more like manipulation then genuine selling.


----------



## youngone (8 April 2011)

condog said:


> Aother update out
> Direct access with great flows and low declines - 60 day flow at 666boepd
> Hollman at 884 boepd for its 30 day flow.
> 
> ...




Thanks Condog.

I hope so, been a holder of AUT for over 3 months, bought in at 3.2, todays price is 2.7.
Lets hope to hear some good news soon, AUT is decreasing my portfolio value. Im on the verge of selling. 

Keep us inform. thanks


----------



## estseon (8 April 2011)

The interesting well is Weston. It's 2/3rds the length of Morgan (4,400ft) or Rancho (5,000ft) but almost as productive at the 7 month point. Furthermore, it's in the Austin Chalk, not the shale - see AUT news release 18 Feb 2009. The reported reserves include NOTHING for the chalk.


----------



## kitehigh (8 April 2011)

Well I decided to make another purchase at 2.77 today to give me an average buy in of 2.66, I am only seeing positives for this one and unless as Condog mentioned SHTF, than in 12 months time we should see a tidy profit on this one.


----------



## Noskcid (8 April 2011)

Assasin said:


> Just be carefull waiting on AUT. It's had a habit of bouncing very quickly to new levels.
> 
> But seriously, have a good look at where it has come from, where it is now, and where it is going. Todays report is a taste ot things to come. A good 1st quarter report due out later this month will also set the tone financially. IMO.
> Good luck.




Yeah I been looking at the graphs from the last 6-12 months.


----------



## condog (9 April 2011)

The XAO  bounced as predicted, which provided good buying as usual when all the lemmings over react.




So far AUT has not bounced back. Yet you only have to look at those updates to see the value thats been added, and whats more, about to be added. 

When those frac results start rolling in at a rate of faster then 1 per fortnight, the value of AUT will be hard to ignore.

Im led to believe Jon is on his way to the US today. Hopefully to acquire some more prime acerage.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 April 2011)

All thing going right Condog, how long does the HC frac crew normally take to frac an average well?


----------



## condog (9 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> All thing going right Condog, how long does the HC frac crew normally take to frac an average well?




A week per frac, plus set up and pack up makes it about two weeks per frac. 

What do you know the US congress approved more debt, well enough to get them thru to October anyway. Within two hours of govt shutdown. Its something to keep a careful eye on as October approaches. 

Comodities should now rally, and the AUD should rally against the USD. One wonders if the devaluation of the USD is deliberate. Either way it doesnt help us from our earnings, but it does help us with our CAPEX and OPEX.


----------



## estseon (10 April 2011)

condog said:


> A week per frac, plus set up and pack up makes it about two weeks per frac.
> 
> What do you know the US congress approved more debt, well enough to get them thru to October anyway. Within two hours of govt shutdown. Its something to keep a careful eye on as October approaches.
> 
> Comodities should now rally, and the AUD should rally against the USD. One wonders if the devaluation of the USD is deliberate. Either way it doesnt help us from our earnings, but it does help us with our CAPEX and OPEX.




The translated results might be a bit depressed but whilst the cash is being recycled back into drilling and land acquisition, it's not going to make a difference to the operations.


----------



## bennywizard (10 April 2011)

estseon said:


> The translated results might be a bit depressed but whilst the cash is being recycled back into drilling and land acquisition, it's not going to make a difference to the operations.




Very good point! Cheaper USD is not a bad thing when we are paying HC in USD plus potentially buying land in a devalued currency.
By the time we are selling sizeable amounts of oil it may not be in USD anyway.


----------



## Sharejon (11 April 2011)

very good point in regards to capex/opex and land acquisitions. 

I've no doubt AUT will continue to be very selective with their land holding, and they have no reason to change.

AUT is already an ASX leading oil and gas company, and value accretive acquisitions like the most recent investment in Hilcorp's acreage is the way to go IMO, and most of you would agree.

Paying $24,000 per acre like the last acquisition is a great deal for this company, provided the working interests (Sugarloaf/Ipanema/Longhorn/Excelsior) are in Hilcorp's current plans, which they very much are.

EKA has tried to fast-track several years by buying extremely cheap land (1/10th of the cost) in the outer regions of the eagleford, which may or may not be successful. Further well results will give us indications along the way. There are definite risks involved.

I hold EKA and i'm happy with the direction they took, but that company is in a different scenario (it's up and coming), AUT is very much already an industry leading company on our stock exchange and there business plan does not need to be changed one bit, just further developed. I'm sure I'm just pointing out what most people here are thinking.

Good to see the buying back today!


----------



## cmxd (11 April 2011)

Noskcid said:


> Yeah I been looking at the graphs from the last 6-12 months.




From the technical view, AUT should go north by 18th of April.


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

cmxd said:


> From the technical view, AUT should go north by 18th of April.




An obvious 3 months of consolidation. The good thing is AUT hasnt stopped adding value, and with the 4 rigs on site the value adding has actually accellerated. I believe that when a company like this consolidates for as long as it just has, its building value the whole time, and the longer the time frame that value keeps getting added , the more pent up value on offer. 3 months of consolidation with 4 rigs drilling away = good value to me.

Shares can improve in value by dropping in price, or tracking sideways over time as value is added. AUT has done both its pulled back 10-15% and its tracked sideways for 3 months, which presents imo a new buying opportunity, which punters are starting to recognize again now. 

The real value will be realized im in the comming two months as those fraccing results start rolling in.


----------



## redMax (12 April 2011)

Could anyone tell me what LT XT stands for in relation to the what is shown on comsec trades for the day.

This is what is showing this morning

08:08:24 AM	2.890	20,000	57,800.00	LT XT
07:25:29 AM	2.897	20,000	57,940.00	LT XT
07:25:17 AM	2.888	20,000	57,760.00	LT XT


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

From march 8th Preso

5000 boepd  post royalties by end of 2011.

$20K maintainance per well. Average interest of AUT approx 24% or so.

5000*340=1.7M boe * $100perboe $170M 

80wells at $20K * 12 * 24% = $4.6M

Post royalty rev approx $165M

PE of 10 = $1.65 Billion
PE of 15 = $2.47 Billion
PE of 20 = $3.30 Billion
PE of 25 = $4.1 Billion

current mcap approx 380,000,000 * 2.90 = $1.1B

Sector average PE  is genrally north of 20, its presently 24. 

$4.1B over 380M = $10.79 per share.   

Note this does not mean it will come true but its easy to see the potential on offer. 

Im using $8+ as my projection. Which again doesnt mena it will be met, but thats my basic valuation using several methods.


----------



## Wombus (12 April 2011)

condog said:


> From march 8th Preso
> 
> 5000 boepd  post royalties by end of 2011.
> 
> ...




With regards to your above calcs, you seem to be working off revenue (less maintenance costs) for your price earnings valuation, don't you need to work from NPAT?

I certainly understand you're trying trying to demonstrate how undervalued AUT is but I think this valuation would be inherently inflated by working from revenue figures alone?

I certainly agree with your end of year valuation towards $8, I don't personally value it that high, closer to $6-7 and as a consequence I entered the stock today. But I'm new to this and you're... we'll you're not .


----------



## estseon (12 April 2011)

I reckon that the big boost to value will start in the latter part of 2012 once they have finished drilling to secure leases and can then focus on drilling to prove up the chalk reserves and smaller spacings. Perhaps multi-sets of twin laterals (1 in the EFS and 1 above in the Austin Chalk) from the same pad, reducing well cost.

Weston is in the Austin chalk and it was only 3,000ft. It was drilled by TCEI before Hilcorp and was one of the Hilcorp farm out completions.


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

Wombus said:


> With regards to your above calcs, you seem to be working off revenue (less maintenance costs) for your price earnings valuation, don't you need to work from NPAT?
> 
> I certainly understand you're trying trying to demonstrate how undervalued AUT is but I think this valuation would be inherently inflated by working from revenue figures alone?
> 
> I certainly agree with your end of year valuation towards $8, I don't personally value it that high, closer to $6-7 and as a consequence I entered the stock today. But I'm new to this and you're... we'll you're not .




Yes your right, but the difference between dead set accurate valuations which take time to explain and show numbers, and these rough nut calcs is not that big. 

Its sometimes best to just give rough calcs for estimates. $8 approx.

Esteon it will be extremely interesting when they choose to first run a lateral in the chalks from a previously EFS well, to see the numbers and cost, how they stack up. Weston certainly indicates some possible good economics, but its a while off for now. Hopefully frac costs will come down between now and then which would really help the NPV per well.  Certainly my opinion on the back of weston is it will be very economic, but i guess we will have to wait see.


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

3 new wells approved.   


 DEWBRE-JOHNSON UNIT  1H   
   HOLLAND-BROWN UNIT  1H    
  HOLLAND-OPIELA UNIT  1H


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (12 April 2011)

condog said:


> 3 new wells approved.
> 
> 
> DEWBRE-JOHNSON UNIT  1H
> ...




Where'd you find this information out dog?


----------



## trader8888 (12 April 2011)

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/

Search - Drilling Permit (Form W-1) Application Query


----------



## condog (13 April 2011)

Try this link
http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/c...dwGGgpl14K8TP1n7sZ0!-653203620?pager.offset=0

then when it comes up, press refresh and it will let you in.

Then in County enter Karnes

Under Operator enter Hilcorp

Then press submit

You should get two pages of results, with the most recent at the bottom of the second page. Very soon it will go to 3 pages.

You can search this database for al sorts of data. Lots of what agent produces comes from this database. It takes a while to learn your way round as thier is lots of precise info needed to find the information your after.


----------



## condog (13 April 2011)

Hey switchmullet, i find it funny that people like impact321 at HC get all high and mighty about exactly how a valuation has to be done. Makes me laugh, as theres infinite ways to value a company. The thing is many come out with similar values.  And its best imo to use several different methods and use the consensus estimate of several methods. 

Id much rather be roughly right then precisely wrong. thats why i use several methods and just go with the estimate thats average accross all the methods used.

And i know many hardcore fundamentalists argue you cant use PE. But imo they just dont know how to use it. Its used as a guide and its a cross between projected cash flow and PE model. Especially in the case of AUT, where most earnings are hidden in well repayments. So you have to extrapolate your earnings from your well flow data and your condensate and gas sales prices.


----------



## chand (13 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Where'd you find this information out dog?




Try this site

http://www.aplforum.com/wellmaps/?co=EME

This gives you all wells and current status -  for field use Sugarcane block b


----------



## trader8888 (13 April 2011)

chand said:


> Try this site
> 
> http://www.aplforum.com/wellmaps/?co=EME
> 
> This gives you all wells and current status -  for field use Sugarcane block b




Nice map chand.

Looks like DAVENPORT and JORDAN are of the same drilling pad??


----------



## chand (14 April 2011)

trader8888 said:


> Nice map chand.
> 
> Looks like DAVENPORT and JORDAN are of the same drilling pad??




You know you can get the production history by  clicking on the well name - very handy


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (14 April 2011)

Sorry for more simple questions, but, does Hilcorp drill for anyone else in the area of just for AUT? And do they frac the wells too or does AUT have someone else do that? Cheers guys. Another bigish drop today too


----------



## Magic Man (14 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Sorry for more simple questions, but, does Hilcorp drill for anyone else in the area of just for AUT? And do they frac the wells too or does AUT have someone else do that? Cheers guys. Another bigish drop today too





Great question Bright Green. Quite simply its dropping because there is currently no interest among buyers. Its no longer the flavour of the month... It doesn't mine rare earths and they don't have a potash deposit... 

Im still a believer but we need something big to turn this around, we definitely see the value but do others outside this forum see it???

One for you CONDOG. IS TXN the next AUT in terms of SP run?


----------



## isplicer (15 April 2011)

Had a rather decent day on the TSX, up about 2.76% with a single trade of 1,000,000 shares going through. Hopefully a run is in order!


----------



## condog (15 April 2011)

TXN is beginning to look like the next AUT on today sannouncment, but we will have to wait see the 30 day declines on teal.

AUT will go hard again imo once the frac results start rolling in.

What NSAI has failed to take into account is a 4 fold increase from halving the spacing and doubling the EUR, due to hitting the original target, the Austin Chalks at some point. 

Dont you worry theres still imo multiples ahead. Right now i think AUT has been way way over sold.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 April 2011)

TD Securities has a 12 month target of$3.50 for AUT/AEF. This was announced today.


----------



## prgudula (15 April 2011)

here is the link to report

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1517&EID=85270798


----------



## condog (15 April 2011)

prgudula said:


> here is the link to report
> 
> http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1517&EID=85270798




What a joke these fools have so under estimated AUT imo that its not worth reading.

Thats no shot at you Pramond, i appreciate the link, but its utter crap, the guys imo  have no idea.


----------



## trader8888 (15 April 2011)

condog said:


> What a joke these fools have so under estimated AUT imo that its not worth reading.
> 
> Thats no shot at you Pramond, i appreciate the link, but its utter crap, the guys imo  have no idea.




Yeah agreed condog, lol they have AUT as a SPECULATIVE buy.


----------



## shanti (16 April 2011)

prgudula said:


> here is the link to report
> 
> http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1517&EID=85270798




Thanks Prgudula, I also got shocked by "speculative buy" rating, then found the reading quite educational as in filling me in with details, history of Eagle Ford & Aut, other companies involved etc -  all easy to understand. As Condog says it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. These guys' valuations are possibly in the precisely wrong cathegory. I assume it's still positive coverage tho(?)


----------



## prgudula (16 April 2011)

all,
I got the link from AUT website which was posted yesterday. I was surprised to see the report as well. but I just wonder!
AEF closed at 3.05 last night.


----------



## condog (18 April 2011)

Looks like Harbour Advisors see the value on offer. Theyve purchased another $5M shares. I think witht he price stagnation weve had for effectively a few months now, the value has surpassed the sp once again imo.


----------



## estseon (18 April 2011)

condog said:


> Looks like Harbour Advisors see the value on offer. Theyve purchased another $5M shares. I think witht he price stagnation weve had for effectively a few months now, the value has surpassed the sp once again imo.




I expect that they're running a medium term position and topping up a trading position.  The selling might be private investors re-investing some of their profit elsewhere and evening up their portfolios having passed the magic 12 month post.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (19 April 2011)

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1519&EID=99276641

Euroz evaluation: $4.50

Not sure if this is old news but just came up in my emails from AUT website.


----------



## Sdajii (19 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1519&EID=99276641
> 
> Euroz evaluation: $4.50
> 
> Not sure if this is old news but just came up in my emails from AUT website.




It's not new, but it looks like a fair few people have either not seen it or have been ignoring it since it was new 

If my predictions are worth anything (which may or may not be the case), AUT looks set for a nice run in the very near future. The fundamentals and technicals look great to me... but yes, I'm a biased (AUT-holding) nobody on an online chat forum, so pay no great attention to me.


----------



## dashwood (21 April 2011)

The 3-4% differential in favour of AEF seems to persist irrespective of  a surge on the ASX and the ensuing benefit for AUT. Imo More fuel for those who doubt the benefits of dual listing. The 'support'ive nature of tsx listing is hard to see. Especially as clever software continued to generate those ridiculously small trades manipulating the sp on the asx yesterday.
However. I hope i am proved wrong and we get a jump to parity with AEF today irrespective of the ASX. We basically need some PR!


----------



## skyQuake (21 April 2011)

dashwood said:


> The 3-4% differential in favour of AEF seems to persist irrespective of  a surge on the ASX and the ensuing benefit for AUT. Imo More fuel for those who doubt the benefits of dual listing. _*The 'support'ive nature of tsx listing is hard to see. *_Especially as clever software continued to generate those ridiculously small trades manipulating the sp on the asx yesterday.
> However. I hope i am proved wrong and we get a jump to parity with AEF today irrespective of the ASX. We basically need some PR!




What do you mean? You just said that the tsx listing trades higher than aus.


----------



## dashwood (21 April 2011)

skyQuake said:


> What do you mean? You just said that the tsx listing trades higher than aus.




Just sour grapes on my part I have to 'hold'on this stock. Knowing it's current value and potential I wish I could join this trade across markets that's going on. If you can make 3-4% every other day who wouldn't? Guess a lot of money being made hey! That's all this dual listing seems to be  providing at the moment. Apparently other forums are debating the fact that SEA is about to be going the same way and oh dear what a mess that stock is in!


----------



## rockhound308 (22 April 2011)

It looks like the TRRC has pass-worded the drilling permit application query   at http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/drilling/index.php. Any one know another way in????


----------



## trader8888 (22 April 2011)

Will be interesting to see what TSX.AEF does with no influence from ASX.AUT in the next three trading days.

rockhound -
It would'nt let me in yesterday but just tried again and it let me in.
Two new wells approved for excelsior -
- ESSE-SMITH UNIT A
- ESSE-SMITH RANCH UNIT B


----------



## trader8888 (22 April 2011)

My bad its only two trading days.


----------



## rockhound308 (22 April 2011)

Thanks trader, its working for me again and good point I keep forgetting to check on activity in Excelcior.


----------



## estseon (23 April 2011)

dashwood said:


> The 3-4% differential in favour of AEF seems to persist irrespective of  a surge on the ASX and the ensuing benefit for AUT. Imo More fuel for those who doubt the benefits of dual listing. The 'support'ive nature of tsx listing is hard to see. Especially as clever software continued to generate those ridiculously small trades manipulating the sp on the asx yesterday.
> However. I hope i am proved wrong and we get a jump to parity with AEF today irrespective of the ASX. We basically need some PR!




Dashwood,

If there's net buying on the TSX, the net balance will have to be bought on the ASX - I don't really see how CMG Securities (MM) can balance its books, otherwise. So I'd have thought that the buying on TSX will lift prices on the ASX eventually.

But it could be exciting if AUT surges on news with the TSX possibly picking up where the ASX left off and then the ASX being hit with CMG squaring its books pre-open.


----------



## Assasin (26 April 2011)

If you havn't already, I'd recommend reading Agents latest posts on the TXN thread.


----------



## condog (26 April 2011)

Assasin said:


> If you havn't already, I'd recommend reading Agents latest posts on the TXN thread.




Personally i found it very difficult to read, to me  its reads like its a possiblea criptic riddle, about how he thinks TXN is so much better then AUT. Im not quite sure, but thats the interpretation i got. 

 I personally dont believe Hilcorp are using inexperienced crews, as they have a very good trac record to say otherwise. 

Interesting that hes over there, but i think some of the conclusions hes coming too may be a fair stretch of the imagination, or part of the local rumour mill over there. Rather then factual information from direct interviews with actual firms from ASX.


----------



## fflintoff (26 April 2011)

condog said:


> Personally i found it very difficult to read, to me  its reads like its a possiblea criptic riddle, about how he thinks TXN is so much better then AUT. Im not quite sure, but thats the interpretation i got.
> 
> I personally dont believe Hilcorp are using inexperienced crews, as they have a very good trac record to say otherwise.
> 
> Interesting that hes over there, but i think some of the conclusions hes coming too may be a fair stretch of the imagination, or part of the local rumour mill over there. Rather then factual information from direct interviews with actual firms from ASX.




It is sour grapes I ´m afraid following the debacle at ADI & then the meteoric rise at AUT where he failed to invest.


----------



## trader8888 (26 April 2011)

With the speed in which hilcorp are drilling and fully completing these wells in, i would highly doubt the workers would have 6 hours experience up their sleeves.


----------



## estseon (26 April 2011)

fflintoff said:


> It is sour grapes I ´m afraid following the debacle at ADI & then the meteoric rise at AUT where he failed to invest.




I made a lot of money on ADI and he must have made a multiple of that - if that is a debacle, then what is a success? In saying that he 'failed to invest' in AUT, you are presuming that he was free to invest in that company. As to his flagging up the benefits of being operator - there must be benefit in having control over the business. I have holdings in both companies. The AUT Board has done a magnificent job of keeping pace with Hilcorp but it is Hilcorp that is calling the shots. TXN is free to determine its own development programme.

And what he says about the pace of development in the area driven by the need to secure leases is totally credible. Just read what the big boys operating in the area are saying. There must be a strain on the infrastructure. It will sort itself out. But AUT is reporting that they are choking down production from completed wells. That could be management of the well to optimise total recovery or it could be to limit production because of restricted capacity to handle the product (or both).


----------



## condog (27 April 2011)

estseon said:


> I made a lot of money on ADI and he must have made a multiple of that - if that is a debacle, then what is a success? In saying that he 'failed to invest' in AUT, you are presuming that he was free to invest in that company. As to his flagging up the benefits of being operator - there must be benefit in having control over the business. I have holdings in both companies. The AUT Board has done a magnificent job of keeping pace with Hilcorp but it is Hilcorp that is calling the shots. TXN is free to determine its own development programme.




I dont buy that argument at all. You go to an accountant when you need expert tax advice. You go to a lawyer for expert legal advice. You go to an orthopedic suregeon when you need orthpedic advice or work done.

In my opinion i would much rather have Hilcorp doing our drilling and fraccing then AUT employees. Why because they are experts. 

I own both TXN and AUT. And i reckon this constant dribble that TXN is better cause its master of its own domain is not all its trumped up to be. Id much rather have Hilcorps guys doing it then TXN's own or AUT's own guys, anyday.

Id put money on it, that Hilcorp would have access to better qualified and more skilled operators then TXN could ever get thier hands on. Think about it for a minute. If your a highly skilled driller or frac crew, would you prefer to work for a constant operator like Hilcorp where they schedule one job after the other to keep you busy and more importantly paid, or would you rather be freelancing for TXN one fortnight, then someone else the next, someone lese the next, and have all sorts of administrative, operrational and payment issues. 

Also in addition to that Hilcorp has an excellent HR mob that aim to skill up its owrkforcde and reward them for excellence and loyalty. Do a bit of research on that topic and you will see that Hilcorp has all sorts of remuneration and award programs in place to retain and train its employees to the highest level. The same cant be said of the operators TXN has got thier hands on. You can start here http://www.hilcorp.com/Succeeding.aspx
http://www.hilcorp.com/Thoughts.aspx
http://www.hilcorp.com/BestPlacesToWork.aspx
http://www.hilcorp.com/Benefits.aspx


> Benefits and Incentive Compensation
> 
> Health Care Benefits:
> •Medical and Dental Coverage
> ...





Right oh, now go check out the same for the TXN drill crew and frac crew. Oh thats right they dont have a recognised crew, no website for them, no health benefits and employee incentive programs 
Now seriously which organisation is likely to have the highly skilled crews.

Like i said i hold TXN , a lot of them, and i want them to succeed just like anyone else, but all this garbage about TXN having better crews, just because they are operator imo is utter garbage.


----------



## condog (27 April 2011)

Got to say the discussion about AUT and its valuations on the Roger Montgomery Blog and on HC, has been completely laughable.

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/who-asked-for-easter-holiday-homework/

I have a lot of respect for Roger and his valuation methods and i think they are fantastic with your traditional stocks.

However anyone trying to apply them to AUT where the NSAI reserves statements have significant lag built in and to the cashflows which are deferrred due to the repayments to hilcorp is kidding them selves if they think they can apply a traditional Roger Montgomery valuation method to AUT.

Classic case of people making huge assumptions with little knowledge of the stock and its development. Using innacurate numbers and figures and then multiplying them to end up with catastrophic errors of judgment and valuation. 

Its crystal clear Lloyd tried to do his research, but equally as clear is that he has littl knowledge of the way NSAI have applied thier reserve estimates, of the way the play can be massively improved via reduced well spacing and targeting the Austin Chalks.  He also seems to not understand the deferral of cash flow onto the balance sheet, and the significant improvements achieved in declines. 

Sorry Roger, but Lloyd has it completely wrong and your acknowledgement of his numbers makes a fool of your methods. You cant be right all the time, but its a concern when you claim to be and have it so obviously wrong, by so much.

Using a reserves method is clearly innapropriate given the complexities of those reserve numbers and the multiples with which they can easily be increased by up to 4 to 8 times. Perhaps get Lloyd to apply his genious using a forward cashflow projection model and he might be in the ball park.


----------



## dashwood (28 April 2011)

6% differential tsx sp to asx sp with insufficient volumes on tsx to give any support...grrhh we better be waiting for some decent news!


----------



## Sdajii (28 April 2011)

dashwood said:


> 6% differential tsx sp to asx sp with insufficient volumes on tsx to give any support...grrhh we better be waiting for some decent news!




With the price of oil so high, wells being paid off so quickly, progress screaming along nicely, the situation looking so much better than when Euroz stuck a $4.50 price target on us, it's weird to see the price drop from well over $3 to under $2.80. The fundamentals will have to catch up sooner or later though, and assuming things keep going nicely and we're getting over $100 per barrel for oil, a long stay at these prices will just bring a more dramatic run later. The Australian dollar is very strong at the moment which doesn't work in our favour, but as someone else pointed out, the most important thing at this stage is getting the wells drilled and paid off, which is all done in US dollars anyway, so we're getting the full benefit of expensive oil.

We should get an operations update within a week or two, probably on the 8th of May if they're consistent. That probably won't bring all that much impact, but it will be good to see.

When is the quarterly due? That should give us a good boost, I'm guessing. All that oil we've been selling at $100-110+ must be helping!


----------



## nioka (28 April 2011)

Sdajii said:


> With the price of oil so high, wells being paid off so quickly, progress screaming along nicely, the situation looking so much better than when Euroz stuck a $4.50 price target on us, it's weird to see the price drop from well over $3 to under $2.80. The fundamentals will have to catch up sooner or later though, and assuming things keep going nicely and we're getting over $100 per barrel for oil, a long stay at these prices will just bring a more dramatic run later. The Australian dollar is very strong at the moment which doesn't work in our favour, but as someone else pointed out, the most important thing at this stage is getting the wells drilled and paid off, which is all done in US dollars anyway, so we're getting the full benefit of expensive oil.
> 
> We should get an operations update within a week or two, probably on the 8th of May if they're consistent. That probably won't bring all that much impact, but it will be good to see.
> 
> When is the quarterly due? That should give us a good boost, I'm guessing. All that oil we've been selling at $100-110+ must be helping!




The answer as I see it is the falling value of the $US. The SP (and the oil price) you mention at $3(AUD) is probably still the same value in $USD as the $2.80(AUD) is today. AUT is earning USD. If they don't get their act together that problem could get worse.


----------



## Sdajii (28 April 2011)

Absolutely, the high Australian dollar/weak US dollar isn't doing us any favours, but the price of oil is so high now, and all our expenses are in US dollars, so a % increase in the value of the Australian dollar shouldn't be giving the same % decrease in share price, even with a stable oil price. The weak US dollar doesn't entirely work against us; it decreases our costs, so increases our profits (in terms of US dollars), and of course, the high oil price does that too. Even with the strong Australian dollar, oil is still over $100 (AU) per barrel.


----------



## jancha (28 April 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Absolutely, the high Australian dollar/weak US dollar isn't doing us any favours, but the price of oil is so high now, and all our expenses are in US dollars, so a % increase in the value of the Australian dollar shouldn't be giving the same % decrease in share price, even with a stable oil price. The weak US dollar doesn't entirely work against us; it decreases our costs, so increases our profits (in terms of US dollars), and of course, the high oil price does that too. Even with the strong Australian dollar, oil is still over $100 (AU) per barrel.




Sdajii i would have thought the same. If anything the % difference between US Dollar & the price of oil should well & truely be a plus. Oil was around $80 a barrel not so long ago & the US dollar hasn't weaken that much in comparison. Just wondering about the price per barrel. When do they set a price it. Is at the beginning on ever month?


----------



## estseon (28 April 2011)

Condog post 2823

You quoted my post but responded to agentm's from what I see.

Whilst I agree 100% on Hilcorp I doubt very much that TXN is using its own employees.

TXN is contracting in rigs and fraccing teams. Delays reported in spudding and fraccing evidence that. Being operator does not mean necessarily hands-on control of the equipment. BP proved that to the world.


----------



## Sdajii (28 April 2011)

jancha said:


> Sdajii i would have thought the same. If anything the % difference between US Dollar & the price of oil should well & truely be a plus. Oil was around $80 a barrel not so long ago & the US dollar hasn't weaken that much in comparison. Just wondering about the price per barrel. When do they set a price it. Is at the beginning on ever month?




Exactly. During the recent surge in the Australian dollar relative to the American dollar, the oil price has surged far more. Even if the price of oil was only just catching up it would be going in our favour because our costs would be coming down, so our profits in Australian dollars would be greater. As it happens, things are even better than that, yet the share price has fallen a lot.

We don't need to raise capital any time soon (probably not at all unless there's another big land acquisition), so the share price won't affect the fundamentals in the near term, so, unless something bad actually happens in the real world (as opposed to speculation and technical analysis issues), we'll be in for a brilliant run any time between now and some point in the not too distant future.

I'm sure one of the gurus can answer the oil sales/price question. I have no idea.

When is the quarterly due?


----------



## frankblack (28 April 2011)

Sdajii said:


> When is the quarterly due?




I can tell you the quarterly is over due as of today. Maybe has to do with Easter or something. So I expect it tomorrow, but it doesn't look like it will help the share price along much, there seems to be other things at play. I certainly hope I am wrong though.


----------



## Sdajii (28 April 2011)

I thought it was today or tomorrow. I expect it to be pretty good. I think you're right about 'other things going on' at the moment, but I hope you're wrong and the report provides enough oomph to do counter that. We'll see soon 

Looking further than short term, in the next 6-36 months, I'm still pretty confident we'll be seeing a lot of positive movement.


----------



## Sirbill (28 April 2011)

Sdajii said:


> I thought it was today or tomorrow. I expect it to be pretty good. I think you're right about 'other things going on' at the moment, but I hope you're wrong and the report provides enough oomph to do counter that. We'll see soon
> 
> Looking further than short term, in the next 6-36 months, I'm still pretty confident we'll be seeing a lot of positive movement.





The report is out already guys/girls

link : http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1540-59225770/AnnualReporttoshareholders


----------



## Magic Man (28 April 2011)

Sirbill said:


> The report is out already guys/girls
> 
> link : http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1540-59225770/AnnualReporttoshareholders




Very interested to here condogs thoughts on this. in the process of reading it now.. You mention outside influences.. What are these outside influences?


----------



## Magic Man (29 April 2011)

What is going on with this market. The US has been strong all week yet we are down in the doldrums. AUT getting hammered.. Getting slightly nervous to see my profit get wiltered away.


----------



## Sdajii (29 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> What is going on with this market. The US has been strong all week yet we are down in the doldrums. AUT getting hammered.. Getting slightly nervous to see my profit get wiltered away.




Just the market being irrational, in my opinion. I just wish I had spare money to buy some more at the moment. People are easily spooked and they react faster to bad new than to good news. I'm guessing they're probably reacting to the strong Australian dollar faster and more extremely than to the great progress and the strong oil price, but in the end things balance up. Brilliant buying opportunity at the moment in my opinion. Not being in a hurry to sell it's not bothering me.


----------



## condog (29 April 2011)

WOW

Announcment out

Aurora’s net production and sales income have started to increase rapidly as a result of
its busy 2011 drilling schedule. Average production for the quarter increased to 787
boepd and *sales increased to approximately US$5 million. These results will continue to
grow rapidly during the year *as the well count grows and farmin wells drilled by the
Hilcorp Energy (the “Operator”) in 2010 and burdened with initial infrastructure costs, pay
out.
*Aurora’s net production on 28 April had increased to approximately 1,660 boepd after
royalties.*• The number of rigs operating across Aurora’s acreage increased from 2 to 4 during the
month of January. Drilling

*A second fracture stimulation crew were contracted and commenced in the Sugarkane
Field at the end of the reporting period. A third crew *is scheduled to work in the area for
short periods during Q2 2011.

*This is the rapid re-rateing we have been waiting for......* The results of the accellerated program are now coming through in cash flow.


----------



## prgudula (29 April 2011)

Quarterly Update and Appendix 5B

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Com...Fs/1550-50390366/QuarterlyUpdateandAppendix5B


----------



## Sdajii (29 April 2011)

condog said:


> WOW
> 
> *Aurora’s net production on 28 April had increased to approximately 1,660 boepd after
> royalties.*




So the income from that oil is something like 1,660 x $110 = $182,600 *per day*

= $182,600 x 30 = $5,878,000 *per month*

Minus costs of course, but to be at that stage now is awesome.

...and the rate of drilling, thus production increase, is huge, and the rate of drilling is still increasing! Each month that figure will be much higher. By the end of the year... oooh, nice. By the end of next year...

Do you have an estimate of production per day by the end of 2011 and 2012, condog?


----------



## condog (29 April 2011)

I do, but i think the simplest formula is 

Right now we have 1660 BOEPD post royalties off 18 wells of which many of the 18 are from the lowest NRI AMI.

AUT has repeatedly stated they are on track for 60 more wells at end of 2011, and that the majority of the wells will be from non sugarloaf AMI's.

Hence lets assume 60 more wells with 50% more NRI then Sugarloaf.

Equates to 1660/18= 92.2BOEPD for current production

1.5*92.2 = 138 BOEPD post royalties * 60 wells =  8300 new BOEPD + 1660 = 9960 BOEPD at end of 2011. As a really rough guide. Please cross check, as may contain errors. 

9960BOEPD @ $110 per boe = almost $1.1M per day =  approx $33.3M per month gross post royalty revenue. Well opex costs at approx .2 * $20000 * 78 = $300K per month

$33M * 12 = approx $396M p.a.  
At PE of 10 = almost $4B
Even if we halve  income to $200M net p.a. and give it a conservative PE of 10 we have a very rough $2B valuation


----------



## trader8888 (29 April 2011)

These are my valuations - for 2011 CY end

-----------------------------------------------------------
Wells and performance - 

NET wells to AUT > 15.8
Average BOEPD per well > 600
15.8 x 600 = 9480 BOEPD 

-----------------------------------------------------------
EBITDA - 

Production > 336 days a year
$95 Oil

9480 x $95 = $900,600 a day

336 x $900,600 = $302,601,600 (for the year)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Costs -
Maintanence - 20,000 x 15.8 = $316,000 p.a
Opex - 2 million p.a
Capex - 6.7 million (costs to drill well) x 15.8 = 105,900,000

Total expenditure = $108,216,000

-----------------------------------------------------------
EBIT - 

$302,602,600(EBITDA) - $108,216,000(total expenditure) = $194,386,600

-----------------------------------------------------------
NET proit - 

$194,386,600 - %40 (tax & royalties) = $116,631,960

Net Profit = $116,631,960

-----------------------------------------------------------

On this net profit figure we are currently trading at a PE of 9.6

EPS = 116,631,960 * 410,000,000 (SOI) = EPS .30c

PE Ratio = $2.88 * .30 = PE Ratio of 9.6


These are the figures taking into acount a higher PE ratio

PE of 15 = MC of 1.75 Billion, SP $4.50
PE of 20 = MC of 2.33 Billion, SP $6.00 
PE of 25 = MC of 2.91 Billion, SP $7.50

Notice that at a PE ratio of 15 is right in line with EUROZ and GMP with their valuations, just something i noticed.

At the end of the day this is just a guide and it does'nt take into account upside that can be added by the likes of - higher EUR's, tighter well spacing, higher condensate ratio's, NGL's, new frac technology, higher oil price, reduction in well costs and so on. But is does give a benchmark price that you can go of to see if you are still in a growth stock or the stock your in is reaching its peak. Its pretty clear to me AUT still has a lot of growth left in it and the factors that could expotentially increase the value of AUT are numerous.

This is'nt investment advice.


----------



## condog (29 April 2011)

Cheers trader for taking the time to do it accurately.

Those figures your presenting are in line with my spreadsheets of a few months ago, with end of 2011 at $6-$8 imo. Doesnt mean it will be reflected in the share price, however, value will ultimately attract price.

Got to say i found this report he best ever for AUT. The figures look like they are really going to start talling up now with 4 rigs, soon to be 5, 2 ful time frac crews and a 3rd secured. So many wells about to flow and so many more to be drilled this year. I think the price of AUT today on the back of that news is rediculous. I sold down TXN with an intent of buying more AUT on the back of these 2 quarterlies.


----------



## trader8888 (29 April 2011)

Cheers Condog.

Yeah i agree one of the best reports ive seen in a while from AUT.

These are some of the key points i picked out the report today. 

- Petrohawk have increased the gross EUR for wells in their over pressured condensate rich gas acreage adjacent to Sugarkane (known as the Blackhawk area) from 500-750 mboe per well to *1,200 mboe per well*.

- Up until late February there have been some production capacity constraints due to gas handling restrictions with in the Field. An interim solution was engineered by the Operator and since Commissioning of a new wet gas line to the Field several wells have increased production as Chokes are opened.

- Within Sugarloaf, the majority of the leases with expiry dates during 2011 have now been held by Production (�HBP�)

- The drilling schedule for 2011 is approximately 60 wells based upon the existing fleet of 4 rigs being supplemented by a 5th rig around mid year. Each rig is presently averaging 27.4 days On each location and this average is falling. The rig count and well duration indicates that the Operator is on target to achieve the planned 60 well program by the end of 2011. The schedule for 2012 has not yet been set, but Aurora anticipates a higher well count to this year.

- With the arrival of the second long term contracted stimulation crew and a third crew secured for approximately a month, the current inventory of wells awaiting stimulation will be dealt with by the end of May. With an additional 12 wells expected to be drilled during Q2 2012 we expect a total well count of 40 by mid year with approximately 35 wells on production.

- The Operator has been optimizing well recovery through reservoir management techniques. Early production has been restricted in order to maintain reservoir pressure and well performance. This approach has proven to be very successful in other shale plays such as the Haynesville and early indications from wells that have been �choked back� are that decline rates have been significantly reduced and ultimate recovery projections are expected to rise.

- Ultimately the testing of tighter well spacing will determine the potential for significant upside to recoverable reserves. The installation of full field processing facilities and during 2012 the move to drilling multiple wells from pads

- With a further 60 wells planned during 2011, Aurora management anticipates that the majority of the possible reserves will be transferred into the 2P category by year end.

- There are currently a further 5 wells that have been fracced and are on production before the end of April 2011. The current inventory of drilled and cased wells is expected to be addressed by the end of May giving a significantly increased total of approximately 35 wells on production by that time. 

- At the time of writing this report Aurora�s net production (after Royalty and cost recovery) had increased to 1,660 boepd.

With these new production figures it makes my CY end Exit valuation of 9480BOEPD look pretty achievialbe. 5000BEOPD (Post Royalty) is way to conservative IMO. We may be close to that figure by the end of this Quater, taking into account this statement by the company "end of May giving a significantly increased total of approximately 35 wells on production by that time" considering this quater was only 18 wells on production and many of those wells would have been the lower working interests. 

The statement by petrohawk regarding EUR's is very interesting as well.

A few new wells approved for Excelsior AMI as well.
- ESSE-SMITH UNIT A 
- ESSE-SMITH RANCH UNIT B 
- KELLNER-MCMAHON UNIT 
- KELLNER-JONAS UNIT


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (29 April 2011)

With all the new wells and crew coming on board when does one suppose we will become cashflow positive?


----------



## trader8888 (29 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> With all the new wells and crew coming on board when does one suppose we will become cashflow positive?




Assume 9500BOEPD CY end 2011 and next year a 80 well drilling program.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9500 x $95 (oil) = $902,500 a day

336 production days a year

902,500 x 336 = $303,240,000 Gross profit a year

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

80 Wells = 20 NET wells to AUT (calculated on a %25 NRI basis)

CAPEX = 20 x 6.7 (well costs) = $134 Million

Maintanence =  36 (Net wells) x 20000 = $720,000 a month or $8,640,000 a year

Admin - $6 million, a year

Total Out goings = $148,640,000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Going on these figures

Gross profit $303,240,000 - Total Out goings $148,640,000

Gives you an EBIT of = $154,600,000

So by my calcs we should be cashflow + early next year sometime.


This is'nt investment advice.


----------



## condog (30 April 2011)

AUT have always said peak negative cashflow is in early 2011. If you go back to the last few presentations, yhey have a column grapgh showing thier anticipated cash flow.





This is due to well repayments having a lag on well costs. Id suggest imo Q3 2011 will be easily cash flow positive. Could be wrong, but thats my opinion.

Thing is just like the well results now are flowing thick and fast, when the cash starts flowing, its going to , imo, grow rapidly.

IMO once it starts flowing , it will grow by 4 to 5 wells at 20odd% NRI, per month.

If your willing to hold 5 years or so, what share price do you think AUT will be worth based on the above graph??


----------



## condog (30 April 2011)

From
http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/di...its-eagle-ford-shale-wells-reveal-th/771.html



> April 28, 2011
> 
> Early Mover Advantage Starts To Pay Off For Aurora Oil & Gas As Its Eagle Ford Shale Wells Reveal The Quality Of Its Acreage Position
> 
> ...




We picked it. Perhaps they just dont keep thier eye on the ball. We picked SEA as well which they also missed.


----------



## redMax (30 April 2011)

Condog

Roger Montgomery has replied on his blog to your comments

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/who-asked-for-easter-holiday-homework/#comments


----------



## condog (30 April 2011)

redMax said:


> Condog
> 
> Roger Montgomery has replied on his blog to your comments
> 
> http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/who-asked-for-easter-holiday-homework/#comments




Yeh saw that ta.

I have a close associate who knows Rogers/Climes/Stockval methods inside out and back to front.
He using comsec numbers, but correcting the number of shares outstanding comes out with:

End of:
2011 $5.34 
2012 $12.45 
and 2013 $13.23  (this one i dont agree with, I think its more likely to be higher)

Im not saying thats right or wrong, but i trust his valuations more then Rogers in most cases. Rogers a smart cookie, but where he does fall short imo is in his projections for companies whos earnings are rapidly evolving from basically nothing to a projected highly profitable company.. IMO hes the master of valuing traditional companies, but his methods dont suit a company like AUT, unless you project numbers forward.

The AUT valuations on his Blog are done by Lloyd, not Roger. But imo they where endorsed by Roger in his inital reply to Lloyd. He seems now to be backing away from that stance. Perhaps hes realised they are valuing something they really didnt understand the ins and outs. Imo Lloyd made some fundamental errors, becuase he drew to many assumptions on items he really didnt understand how they work. Most notably the well repayment method to Hilcorp. Additionally the improving declines, which he clearly hasnt monitored close enough to draw the conclusions he drew.


----------



## alexc2005 (30 April 2011)

I for one am looking at topping up next week.

Bought my initial parcel at $2.82, they look to be great value at the moment at $2.65, thats a tuesday morning job for me.


----------



## estseon (30 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> With all the new wells and crew coming on board when does one suppose we will become cashflow positive?




Current production is funding the equivalent of about 2 Longhorn wells each month. Management projections for about 'mid year' would possibly fund the ongoing drilling programme. AUT has said that profits tax is not an issue this year because of brought forward losses and ongoing CapEx.

However cash settlement of production always lags by a couple of months or so. In cash terms, much of Q1 production will be reported in Q2.

Unless they ramp up drilling or infrastructure expenditure, I would have thought that cash flows will be pretty balanced by Q4

Major third party gas pipeline infrastructure is under construction an was due to come into service early in 2012. That'll broaden the user market for the production, which could be beneficial for prices as well as releasing constraints on production.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 April 2011)

Thanks guys. I would have thought the higher nymex oil would have given a better result for the quarterly...

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/di...its-eagle-ford-shale-wells-reveal-th/771.html

Just a small read..


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

estseon said:


> Current production is funding the equivalent of about 2 Longhorn wells each month. Management projections for about 'mid year' would possibly fund the ongoing drilling programme. AUT has said that profits tax is not an issue this year because of brought forward losses and ongoing CapEx.
> 
> However cash settlement of production always lags by a couple of months or so. In cash terms, much of Q1 production will be reported in Q2.
> 
> ...




Too me its like any other business. Growth is constrained by cash at bank and cash flow. Any time there is an accelleration in growth it requires extra capital. 

This is the reason EKA will be cash flow positive way before AUT. Every time AUT announces expansion, increased or accelerated development it pushes back the point of positve cash flow. Many fret and regard this as a failure by the business that it has now income or no cash flow.

I say they dont understand the business. Any accelleration it can afford without massively diluting us , or sending us broke is great. If it pushes the breakeven point back, who cares, as we ultimately will be more cash flow positive and have more cash flow growth once it finally occurs. 

Sure its confidence inspiring to see more revenue then expenses in the quarterlies, but ultimately we are in this thing for the growth, not the pretty balance sheet that some fundamentalists go chasing.

right now Jon Stewart is driving a phenominal pace of growth and managing to do it with cash at bank and cash flow to sustain it. The way hes spoken about furhter acquisitions and development, it wouldnt surprise me if every time we are about to become cash flow positive, he announces an accelleration of development or an acquisition. 

Whilst that will push back breakeven point, its ultimately tax effective and if done well will have far more benefit to the value of the company then holding cash or paying dividends.

You got to remeber this is how growth is driven. ABC learning got it all wrong they used debt to grow rapidly. What Jon is doing is funding it from cash flow and occasionally from Capital Raisings. No problem with the CR's if they are done well and immediately accruive. So far the market has voted in favour of his strategy. 

If he pushes the breakeven point out another 6 moths or 2 years it just means when the point is realised the cash flow growth will be phenominal.


----------



## isplicer (1 May 2011)

condog said:


> AUT have always said peak negative cashflow is in early 2011. If you go back to the last few presentations, yhey have a column grapgh showing thier anticipated cash flow.
> 
> View attachment 42647




Wow, that's a very engaging graphic right there. Where was it sourced condog? Was it the company report?


----------



## nioka (1 May 2011)

condog said:


> This is the reason EKA will be cash flow positive way before AUT. Every time AUT announces expansion, increased or accelerated development it pushes back the point of positve cash flow. Many fret and regard this as a failure by the business that it has now income or no cash flow.
> 
> I say they dont understand the business. Any accelleration it can afford without massively diluting us , or sending us broke is great. If it pushes the breakeven point back, who cares, as we ultimately will be more cash flow positive and have more cash flow growth once it finally occurs.




This is a good theory but in practice many oilers get "oil" fever. They spend all their income chasing the next bonanza and after a few dusters suddenly the funds dry up, nothing left for dividends and the SP drops. The run has been good for the directors and executives as they had their performance payments in the good times but if the shareholders didn't get good divvies or sell and profit take then they are left to ponder the what ifs. Investors can get this gold/oil fever too, you see it reflected in the posts. Make sure you dont catch the infection. Take a little profit along the way as insurance. DYOR.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

nioka said:


> This is a good theory but in practice many oilers get "oil" fever. They spend all their income chasing the next bonanza and after a few dusters suddenly the funds dry up, nothing left for dividends and the SP drops. The run has been good for the directors and executives as they had their performance payments in the good times but if the shareholders didn't get good divvies or sell and profit take then they are left to ponder the what ifs. Investors can get this gold/oil fever too, you see it reflected in the posts. Make sure you dont catch the infection. Take a little profit along the way as insurance. DYOR.




yep seen that plenty of times. Right now whilever money is being spent on good things that grow the future cash flows im as happy as a pig in mud. If mgmt start wasting money or diversifying into areas im unhappy about, taking chances on dusters, then yep, time to sell.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

Spent most the last day and a bit crunching the sums on a few oilers, but AUT in particular. I wanted to cross check my figures against a few doomsayers.

One thing obvious i noted is that the well figures used by Euroz are extremely cautios. They are doing thier sums on 39 wells in 2011, 55 in 2012, 64 in 2013 and 71 in 2014. Not only are these number wrong, but they are way out on the low side. 

I make it we started this quarter with 15 wells and 18 now on tap. they have 60 planned and the latest presentation, plus my calcs confirm that by end of 2011 we will have between 75 and 78 wells flowing to sales. 

So i have re done my figures . My figures are for discussion purposes only. Whilst i think they are right they may not be. 

Please note my figures do not take in the 12 months earnings from 2011. They are 12 x the earnings for what i believe they will be in late Dec 2011. Hence i believe these will be right at that point in time. Prior to that we are worth less, after obviously more.

I have been conservative. AUT says average well flows are 787boepd post royalties.. Ive used 500 for 31 dec 2011. AUT should have plenty of tax credits, but ive included tax and royalties at 30% for the moment and $5.2M admin costs annually. 

Ive used $16K per month opex per well as its currently $20K in the NSAI report, but about to go down to 12K per well per month due to multi well pads.

Feel free to offer alternatives or suggestions / corrections. 



And for the formula junkies


Some fundamentalists will argue that you have not added in CAPEX. My  view on that is you dont, when your spending $6.8M on wells that will payback in 6 months and will continue to return significant free cash flow beyond . Some call that risk. Possibly true, but imo thats why we managed to buy AUT at 20 odd cents. Because we developed a method of applying cash flow valuations prior to things unfolding. And thats why where sitting here now thinking AUT is still great value.


----------



## trader8888 (1 May 2011)

condog it looks pretty good, similar to mine actually.

I was going to say you have'nt added the CAPEX in to drill the wells, but you updated your post. Personally id prefer using them in my calcs, but each to their own.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

isplicer said:


> Wow, that's a very engaging graphic right there. Where was it sourced condog? Was it the company report?




Its from 34 page company preso released to ASX on 8/3/2011


----------



## suhm (1 May 2011)

Hey condog, you are saying that you are being conservative by decreasing the boepd expected per well but you don't seem to be factoring any declines in production for your calculations.
Even though declines are decreasing due to smaller choke size used, even conventional oil and gas fields have declines although less than these tight gas/condensate play.
Not saying that it might not be possibly undervalued, just not sure yet.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

suhm said:


> Hey condog, you are saying that you are being conservative by decreasing the boepd expected per well but you don't seem to be factoring any declines in production for your calculations.
> Even though declines are decreasing due to smaller choke size used, even conventional oil and gas fields have declines although less than these tight gas/condensate play.
> Not saying that it might not be possibly undervalued, just not sure yet.




Each invvestor needs to decide for themselves whats conservative and whats not. To me with a current average post royalty flow of 787 BOEPD, i regard 500 as very conservative. Rememebr we are only talking about a single point in time being 31 Dec 2010. And with recent results i cant see that average getting down to 500..

Theres basically 60 more wlls to be fracced and flowed to sales between now and Dec 31, which imo will keep this average up. I agree with you as we go forward declines need to be built in, but not yet. The average reported flow less then a wekk ago is 787, so thats the best information we have available, and while these 18 wells already flowing may decline, thats included in that average. 

Additionally they have quoted 787 as post royalty. My 500boepd is pre royalty.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

trader8888 said:


> condog it looks pretty good, similar to mine actually.
> 
> I was going to say you have'nt added the CAPEX in to drill the wells, but you updated your post. Personally id prefer using them in my calcs, but each to their own.




When wells are being repaid in months rather then years, if you add Capex then youd also have to add in 6 months production. Its complicated and not necesary. Being roughly right without adding the CAPEX is fine imo.

Remember im valueing a point in time not a whole year. I personally dont believe its right to value this using annual figures, as its changing too rapidly.


----------



## rcm617 (1 May 2011)

I think somewhere along the line you do have to allow for capex, whether its upfront or via depreciation, after all the wells do eat up all the cashflow for the first few years. 
I also cant agree that payback is within 6 months. The cashflow of only $640,000 in the quarterly suggests to me that the first five wells still arent paid off, even after more than a year for the first.
I think when working out boe pricing, a more conservative figure than $95 might be appropriate, as at a 6 to 1 figure you're only getting about $40 for the gas portion.
I'd agree with your 500boepd for the first year, however after this there will be the proportion of older wells producing substantially less, and this proportion will be increasing every year. From the rrc figures after nine months the average production for the first five wells is 257 boe per day (worked out on a 12/1 basis), so I would think the average for the second year from the older wells, would be struggling to be over 200 boepd even with improved techniques.
These figures are all pre royalties. I agree that techniques are improving, however at the moment the quantum of longterm increases in production from these are purely speculative.


----------



## estseon (1 May 2011)

Re production of 1,660 boepd at end of April. That is from the 18 at the end of March PLUS:

"There are currently a further 5 wells that have been fracced and are on production before the end of April 2011"

So, 23 wells in production at end of April.

The information is there in the Quarterly report (page 2 2nd full bullet point) but it is a bit of a job to piece it together.

Then it becomes confusing because the tables summarising activity show, in total, 15 wells including the 3 wells brought into production. The statement: "At the end of the reporting period there were 18 wells on production, 11 ready for stimulation, 4 wells being drilled and 2 wells being stimulated" includes some double counting - I cannot easily reconcile it with the activity reports.

In total 12 wells, including Gilley, which required a workover, remained to be put on production. Carter Salge was cased in April. The other 10 were all drilled and cased.

Yosko and Foster were being fracced at the end of March and are presumably within the extra 5 brought into production in April.

There is a further statement that the Company expects there to be 35 wells in production by the end of May.

I suggest that the statement  "At the end of the reporting period there were 18 wells on production, 11 ready for stimulation, 4 wells being drilled and 2 wells being stimulated" is actually a mix of reporting the position at the end of March and that at the end of April (28th) because the total is, indeed, the 35 referred to in the projection for the end of May.

My guess is that:

18 in production at 31 March
5 brought into production by 28 April
7 remaining wells drilled by 31 March awaiting fraccing at 28 April
1 well spudded in April awaiting fraccing at 28 April
4 wells spudded in April still drilling.

It also suggests confidence in sorting out Gilley which would seem to be in the total unless they are referring to a new well due to spud after 28 April and to be brought into production before the end of May, which would be unlikely.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I think somewhere along the line you do have to allow for capex, whether its upfront or via depreciation, after all the wells do eat up all the cashflow for the first few years.
> I also cant agree that payback is within 6 months. The cashflow of only $640,000 in the quarterly suggests to me that the first five wells still arent paid off, even after more than a year for the first.



Not so imo. If they are indeed producing an average of 787boepd as announced in the quarterly on a post royalty basis, do the maths, thats a less then 6 month payback per well on average.

If they are infact being repaid on an average faster then 6 months then youd be adding a CAPEX expense of 22% (22% is an average NRI htat i use, its not exact for each well, but works out ok) of $6.8M and then youd add 22% $6.8M to the Earnings. They effectively cancel each other out. Hence why i havent included it. If however well repayments where 3 months or 9 months, on average, i agree youd have to include the CAPEX.



rcm617 said:


> I think when working out boe pricing, a more conservative figure than $95 might be appropriate, as at a 6 to 1 figure you're only getting about $40 for the gas portion.



Possibly true i had been working on 90 most the day and changed it to 95 to be in line with Euroz, who are quoting 95 as the figure achieved. Point taken on the 6:1 issue.



rcm617 said:


> I'd agree with your 500boepd for the first year, however after this there will be the proportion of older wells producing substantially less, and this proportion will be increasing every year.




Totally agree this figure is currently 787 so using 500 is very conservative for now given there will be around 39 wells by june 30th, so essentially around 41 wells in H2 2011. 600 is likely to be more acurate for this year, however, unless new wells coming on line have and sustain significantly higher flows this average figure will decline each and evry year unless a huge amount of new wells are drilled in any year. Essentialy likely to decline each year. 



rcm617 said:


> From the rrc figures after nine months the average production for the first five wells is 257 boe per day (worked out on a 12/1 basis), so I would think the average for the second year from the older wells, would be struggling to be over 200 boepd even with improved techniques.



The quarterly states 787 as the average, thats the best information we have, so even though those older wells have declined, as they where gushing full bore, it appears, by the average of 787 they have learned and applied a lot. No point factoring in 257, when its already been done by the AUT in averaging 787.



rcm617 said:


> These figures are all pre royalties. I agree that techniques are improving, however at the moment the quantum of longterm increases in production from these are purely speculative.



You have to remember, basically two years ago they where having huge problems doing multistage fraccing, with hopeless economics and almost as many technical failures as successes. To think that they have reached optimal flows and techniques already, is in my mind unthinkable. Having seen the improvements they have made already its astounding and yet they still havent even tried longer fracs with 30 plus sections, they havent tried the pulsating frac technique thats yielded others 25% increases in flows, they havent installed production tubing in many wells. Theres a hell of a lot of room left for improvement imo. And the information sharing arrangment will ensure these technical improvments are maximised.


----------



## rcm617 (1 May 2011)

I think you will find the 787 boepd is the total for net production of all of AUT's wells over last quarter. 
Another way of looking at it might be the net production quoted for AUT on 28th of April of 1660 boepd.
With 18 wells producing, at an average of 22% to AUT, ie 3.96 wells, average production would be 419 boepd per well. That would include a fair percentage of the newer wells.


----------



## condog (1 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I think you will find the 787 boepd is the total for net production of all of AUT's wells over last quarter.
> Another way of looking at it might be the net production quoted for AUT on 28th of April of 1660 boepd.
> With 18 wells producing, at an average of 22% to AUT, ie 3.96 wells, average production would be 419 boepd per well. That would include a fair percentage of the newer wells.




Heres the exact words in the report


> The Aurora cumulative share of production from post farmout wells during the quarter was 148 mmscf and 46,174 bbls after royalties at an average of 787 boepd.
> 
> It should be noted that there were *11 wells awaiting *or being fracced at the end of March. As outlined above the additional fraccing capacity that was contracted from the beginning of Q2 will remove this inventory of wells awaiting stimulation. *At the time of writing this report Aurora’s net production (after Royalty and cost recovery) had increased to 1,660 boepd.*




Earlier in the report it states:


> Aurora’s net production and sales income have started to increase rapidly as a result of its busy 2011 drilling schedule. Average production for the quarter increased to 787
> boepd and sales increased to approximately US$5 million.
> 
> and
> ...




I make that as 18 + 5 = 23  But as for the NRI the bulk of these are on sugarloaf and where pre Dec2010 at 10% NRI. So even though i believe average NRI will be 22% at end of 2011, at present we are probalby more like 12 or 13%. If we go with 12% then 1660/(23*12%)= 601 boepd per well after royalties. 787-601=186     186/787=23.6% Royalties.  This is feasable. Maybe not dead accurate but we are definitely in the bal park.





The annualised net rev is a 350 days  x  that point in time. Not calulated annually.


----------



## trader8888 (1 May 2011)

program just about to start on SBS called "gasland" about drilling for oil and gas in the US. Apperently SEA is on it


----------



## Silhouetteau (1 May 2011)

Hey All,

Just came across this news release from Lucas Energy who are drilling into the Austin Chalk. Just something to keep an eye on during the year. They're drilling in Gonzales.

"Lucas Energy announced today that it has entered into a joint venture agreement with Seidler Oil & Gas, LP.  Lucas will be the operator under the joint venture relationship, and expects to drill approximately eight (8) new Austin Chalk wells, or new laterals in existing wells, during the 2011 calendar year"

http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?ref=rss&d=219934


----------



## prgudula (2 May 2011)

Investor Presentation out

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1552&EID=93965843


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

My Valuations


I believe these are optimistic and a PE of 10 to 15 is achievable. Figures do not include CAPEX. So they will be on the low side of these imo. As time goes on i presume the ratio of CAPEX to Revenue will decline, meaning imo the later valuations may be more accurate then the 2011 valuations. 
Roger Montgomery's method - the most conservative valuation in the world. Based on comsec figures which i believe are incorrect. 




Trader888 - yeh i watched it , its a bit biased from that tree hugging hippy. But it does raise a ver legitimate question. What is AUT/Hilcorp/TXN and the others doing to mitigate this risk of contamination of water, and or any side effects of chemicals on animals, people and flora.

Sillouhoute - Yes will be good to see whoat thier numbers are. Our well "weston " in the chalks was one of the early ones. And you could say comparable to other early wells its been a good producer, especially givin its relatively short horizontal section.. It will be interesting to see when we put our next Chalks well in, what the flows and declines will be. Id suggest that will be mid 2012, when lease obligations are met.

Pramond, nice to see they are still on the presentation trail. At 2.64 they may verywell attract the new heard of buyers needed.


----------



## adobee (2 May 2011)

trader8888 said:


> program just about to start on SBS called "gasland" about drilling for oil and gas in the US. Apperently SEA is on it




been wanting to watch it for a while and got to last night.. very interesting.. biggest fact is that Chaney is the biggest crook of them all..


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

nyone elese getting the feeling that this cold market is the result of fear from what the communist Labour budget will deliver. And that in 10 days time we will see a bounce post budget. Thats the feeling im getting.

The market hates uncertainty, and this govt has proven itself to be untrustworthy and poor judgment with even poorer strategic delivery. Im thinking the market doesnt trust the govt, and in around 9 to 10 days the fear will dicipate.


----------



## prawn_86 (2 May 2011)

Peronally i think the flat market is due to the crazy highs of the AUD. A hell of a lot of ASX stocks have earnings in USD, so each movement up means lower bottom lines, depending on how much they have hedged.


----------



## nioka (2 May 2011)

condog said:


> nyone elese getting the feeling that this cold market is the result of fear from what the communist Labour budget will deliver. And that in 10 days time we will see a bounce post budget. Thats the feeling im getting.
> 
> The market hates uncertainty, and this govt has proven itself to be untrustworthy and poor judgment with even poorer strategic delivery. Im thinking the market doesnt trust the govt, and in around 9 to 10 days the fear will dicipate.




AUT operates in the USA so the political climate in Australia can't have much to do with the SP of AUT. The strong AUD and the weak USD plus the availability of OIL will be the governing factors regardless of which party is in power in Australia. Can't blame Julia for everything.


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

nioka said:


> AUT operates in the USA so the political climate in Australia can't have much to do with the SP of AUT. The strong AUD and the weak USD plus the availability of OIL will be the governing factors regardless of which party is in power in Australia. Can't blame Julia for everything.




All the small oilers are getting hammered, imo , the mood in australia whilst it should be irrelevant to AUT, overrides everyones sentiment and they all behave like lemmings as they over-react to a bit of uncertainty. This govt has made its self the most uncertain govt Aust has had in this generation, hell even Bob Hawke was calm and predictable comparred to this crazy bunch. 

On another more positve note RCM617

Right on cue as I was typing last night they havent yet any where near maximised technological improvements that will lead to better flows and lower declines. Then bang oh, this mornings presentation says they will be trying the "HiWay" pulsating frac technique that yeilded Petrohawk 25% increased flows and lower declines.

I think they did that to try and make me look like i know what im talking about. lol.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 May 2011)

Yes I read that too, realistically when will we see production figures on the hiway frac tech? PS: AUT's SP is floated up and down today... really weird..


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

Not sure when we will see it, but it will be worth looking for.

Little old AUT, almost a 20c swing today. Seems the shorties had it shorted thismorning and now someones seen the value and fighting back. I was hoping for it to go a little lower and was going to grab a few, but was on the phone and missed the lows.


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

I suggest anyone worrying about the sell offs lately. Simply grab a cuppa or a beer and spend half an hour browsing through todays presentation to see what our little microcapo oiler has become, and more importantly what its about to become. Certainly makes for good reading. 

Another absolute cracker from todays presentation. I thought we wouldnt see this till mid 2012. But it looks like its an imminent priority. This has the potential to massively increase reserves.



Current data is inssuficient to tell what spacing may work. The Barnett shale is currently testing 20 acre spacing.

Updated cash flow projections.



Plus they are trialling the Highway Fraccing method which delivered 25% higher flows elsewhere in the EFS.


----------



## thesnowyforest (2 May 2011)

Condog,

Your work on AUT is unbelieveable. 

Im about to purchase some with my super this week. SUPER CHARING my super! haha

U been watching SSN? Keeping an eye on the Niobrara play which is about to ramp up. Would be interested on your throughts over on the other thread.

Not cross promoting, just keen on your throughts.


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

thesnowyforest said:


> Condog,
> 
> Your work on AUT is unbelieveable.
> 
> ...




Ive definitely got one eye on SSN, but i didnt like the number of shares on offer. Should have bought it when i first researched it at 1.5c


----------



## rcm617 (2 May 2011)

Hi condog,

In the presentation AUT gives their estimation of production for 2011 at an average of 3500 boepd, so on 365 days gives a total  for 2011 of 1,241,000 boe.
In your spreadsheet you have preroyalty totals as 2,887,500 using 500 boepd per well. If we deduct the 30% royalty you are using that will give a total for the year of 2,021,250. So using AUT figures they are working on 500*(1241000/2021250) per well, ie 307 boe per well post royalties for 2011.
Sorry to keep labouring the point, but I think you're a bit optimistic with your figures per well, especially once we enter the second year and start getting a higher percentage of older wells.
I agree that with new techniques they will probably push up this figures up, and that AUT is a buy at these  levels, however I always think its best to work with conservative figures.


----------



## trader8888 (2 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Hi condog,
> 
> In the presentation AUT gives their estimation of production for 2011 at an average of 3500 boepd, so on 365 days gives a total  for 2011 of 1,241,000 boe.
> In your spreadsheet you have preroyalty totals as 2,887,500 using 500 boepd per well. If we deduct the 30% royalty you are using that will give a total for the year of 2,021,250. So using AUT figures they are working on 500*(1241000/2021250) per well, ie 307 boe per well post royalties for 2011.
> ...




This is condogs valuation for that one point in time the 31/12/11, thats the way i read it and thats how ive got my valuations as well.


----------



## rcm617 (2 May 2011)

I just see people talking about long term averages as high as 600 boepd for wells, which I think is not being realistic as the  AUT presentation shows.


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I just see people talking about long term averages as high as 600 boepd for wells, which I think is not being realistic as the  AUT presentation shows.




Ive had a few drinks in celebration of our lost souless soul...from saudi/afghan, so i might regret what i post.

I am quoting a point in time as at 31 Dec 2011. Of course the average for 2011 will be monumentally lower then the high point for the year. But serioously if your making an investment today do you want to know what the average for they year is, or do you want to know how much money your investment might be worth at the end of the year. 

I respect your respectful manner, but id also say its incredibly easy to pick aparts someone elses numbers that they put forward. I believe mine are in the ball park, if you have an alternative valuation for 31 Dec 2011 or any other point in time then please show us what it is and why, preferably with its working. To me putting foraward averages for a year is a joke, because it means the first part of the year its rediculously ambitious and the last part of the year its rediculously under valued. So whats the point. Pick a point in time and justify your reasons i say.

I understand what your saying, but i dont agree. So please put your alternative forward and hopefully the troops will have two good alternatives to discuss or to reach a consensus from. Thats not a bad post considering i think im a bit over 0.05


----------



## condog (2 May 2011)

A great post by esteon elsewhere



> The 29 April report shows quite a few companies short sold at about 30% of turnover. AUT is an ASX 200 company and it is possible that some of the action reflects selling of the index.
> 
> The price rose today.
> 
> ...




I say theres always some morons who are going to get their shorts wrong. Some will short when they see the index going. 30% is disapointing, but i think we all saw thisafternoon that the value is there. The low was 2.53 for the day but it rocketed down and up on light volume. When all these frac results come through by end of may the value proposition will be fantastic if curent sp is similar.

Just ask yourself this. If punters thought this thing was worth 3.00 at start of 2011, what the hell is this thing going to be worth at end of 2011 with 78-80 wells on tap.

Imo shorting at $3.30 in early 2011 is feasable. Shorting in May at $2.65 with the current reports and impending results imo is moronic. Sure do it on down days with strong US leads, but any other day, i believe there will be more losers then winners.


----------



## rcm617 (2 May 2011)

I appreciate your posting your spreadsheets on here, and as you say it is easy to pick apart somebody elses numbers, but you did invite people to do so. 
Like I said, you mentioned averages of 787 boepd and trader is working on averages of 600 per well, which in my opinion is unrealistic, so I gave my reason for this, verified by todays presentation. Fair enough if you dont agree with it thats up to you.
As to my valuation, I'm accumulating at these levels  but will start looking at taking profits once it goes over $3.00. This may change depending on market and additional information.


----------



## trader8888 (2 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I appreciate your posting your spreadsheets on here, and as you say it is easy to pick apart somebody elses numbers, but you did invite people to do so.
> Like I said, you mentioned averages of 787 boepd and trader is working on averages of 600 per well, which in my opinion is unrealistic, so I gave my reason for this, verified by todays presentation. Fair enough if you dont agree with it thats up to you.
> As to my valuation, I'm accumulating at these levels  but will start looking at taking profits once it goes over $3.00. This may change depending on market and additional information.




RCM, you have to remember that the amount of wells coming on each month is going to keep the average up, even after about 5 months wells are still producing at around 600BOEPD according to AUT's presso today. 

Now combine this with the new hi-way frac technology and some of the outstanding wells that have come on line recently which have actually inreased from 30 - 60 day flow rates and you can see how i am using an average of 600BOEPD for my calcs. 

It looks as though the campaign is stepping up a notch next year with 80 wells planned (subject to change)


----------



## condog (3 May 2011)

I read Agents post on HC about AUT. What a complete load of garbage. Im not sure why hes trying to get AUT investors to sell and buy TXN, but his ranting is rediculous and so unfounded its not funny. 

Good job Sharejon and esteon.


----------



## skyQuake (3 May 2011)

Magic Man said:


> The volume on the open today is tragic..




but it hasnt opened yet!


----------



## sammy84 (3 May 2011)

skyQuake said:


> but it hasnt opened yet!




Hence why it's tragic so far :


----------



## 5haretrader (3 May 2011)

Looking to get back into an oiler with the recent slide on the market.

I like AUT because of it's relative safety, and it's capacity to make over $200 earnings in 2012.

I like SEA because it is like AUT's little brother. Different acreage, and different styles of exploration, but in 2-3 years time it should be producing a similar amount of oil equivalent as AUT will be by the end of the year.

I like TXN because it is an operator, which while has some disadvantages, lets them have a bit more control over proceedings. It also has some decent EFS land to tap into in the next few years. The only thing holding me back is they aren't exactly going at this acreage with a full head of steam.

Used to really like SSN, but I just reckon SEA has a bit more valued tied down where it really matters, and it is a slightly cheaper stock after all. 

So the question is, which one?

I reckon AUT will break $4 by the end of the year based on forward projected revenue. But for the other two (TXN and SEA), I'm not quite sure what to expect out of them...

In order of preference, I have it down as SEA > AUT > TXN.

Anyone have any thoughts on this one?

Also, can someone please confirm that if AUT has a 22% average working interest across it's acreage, does it pay 22% of the 20k per month operating costs, or the full 20k? Also, does it pay 22% of the $7M well cost, or the full $7M?

Cheers.


----------



## nioka (3 May 2011)

5haretrader said:


> Looking to get back into an oiler with the recent slide on the market.
> 
> I like AUT because of it's relative safety, and it's capacity to make over $200 earnings in 2012.
> 
> ...




I've spread the risk by having AUT TXN and EKA switching between those three as the value ratios change. You havent included EKA I notice.!

Note the contribution to the well cost varies. There are some percentages free carried as part of the lease conditions with land owners. It is more complicated that straight percentage relative to percentage return.


----------



## condog (3 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I appreciate your posting your spreadsheets on here, and as you say it is easy to pick apart somebody elses numbers, but you did invite people to do so.
> Like I said, you mentioned averages of 787 boepd and trader is working on averages of 600 per well, which in my opinion is unrealistic, so I gave my reason for this, verified by todays presentation. Fair enough if you dont agree with it thats up to you.
> As to my valuation, I'm accumulating at these levels  but will start looking at taking profits once it goes over $3.00. This may change depending on market and additional information.




Yeh thats fine, just you seem to have a pretty concrete view, it might be worth you bashing up a few spreadsheets to show that view. Youve obviously though long and hard about it which is great. No problems with varying viewpoints. Good healthy discussion is great, and it stops a lot of the up and down ramping, which can creep in from time to time. 

Cheers.


----------



## estseon (4 May 2011)

A problem with valuing on the basis of production/well at this stage is that the differences in levels of working interest will result in very different figures depending not only on the mix of wells drilled but also on the order in which they are drilled. Certainly, they have indicated the planned mix but, without knowing the order in which they are drilled, it's all a bit hopeless. Each Longhorn well is the equivalent of 3 1/2 Excelsior wells. There are relatively few Sugarloaf wells left to be drilled this year and similarly Ipanema so most will be either Longhorn or Excelsior. Also, there will be 10 wells drilled but not producing at the end of the year and it's anybody's guess which ones they will be. The only reasonable certainty, because of disclosures by EKA, is that those 10 wells will not include any Sugarloaf wells.


----------



## condog (4 May 2011)

My valuations for one single point in time. 31Dec 2011 and then 31 Dec 2012. Calculated on a non-discounted projected cash flow (however the $90 oil price is conservative compared to current condensate sale price). 

May contain errors and be incorrect. For discussion purposes only, always seek expert advice and do your own research.

I have 4 scenarios with varying average flow rates from 700boepd down to 300 boepd. Current quoted average boepd is 787boepd, but that includes a lot of very fresh wells. 

Note i have issued 50,000,000 shares in 2012. Unlikely to be that many, but if we get land acqusitions or want to accellerate drilling it could happen, so ive built it in. I guess, the two middle scenarios are likely to be most accurate, but thats only an opinion. And in my opinion a PE of 15


----------



## rcm617 (4 May 2011)

Sorry condog, I dont actually keep any spreadsheets on the valuations, to many variables down the line, I just keep records of production and work out likely future flows from that.
I still think that you may have misread the quarterlies, the average of 787 was the daily average for the total of all the wells. 
They mentioned sales in the quarter net to AUT of about $5m, which gives you some idea of what price they averaged during the quarter 787*90*70= 4,958,100 so about $70 per boe which of course would increase a bit this quarter with the increase in price of oil, tempered somewhat by the low price of gas.
In the presentation they mentioned net production had increased to 1660 by the end of April, and they expected production by year end to net 5000boe post royalties or 6800 pre royalties.
From that I would assume that the bottom one of your spreadsheets would be the most likely scenario.
Like I said thanks again for supplying your spreadsheets, these are just my calculations and probably also contain mistakes which I would be quite happy for anyone to point out.


----------



## condog (4 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I still think that you may have misread the quarterlies, the average of 787 was the daily average for the total of all the wells.




RCM why is it that thier quoted average is so unreliable. If its the quoted average of all wells, its not bad, because at the end of march due to the hold ups with frac crews we actually had, had a long period with few new wells coming on.

I understand that a quoted average at end of may when the on tap wells suddenly jumps to 35 would be an average above a sustaianable level. And yes even 787 is above any sort of sustainable level. But to think they are going to decline from an overall average of 787 now to an average of 400, is imo way too conservative, especially withthe significantly improved flows and declines of late and the fact they are trialing "highway Fraccing" which yeilded PEtrohawk 25% increase in flows and better declines. 

Each to thier own but i think we need to agree to disagree. My opinion is you are being way to cautious. Just speaking mathematically the chances of reducing an average from 787 (minus the 20% revenue that comes from dry gas) to an average of 400, when at the time of 787boepd, there was 25 wells on tap, including around 8 or so that are more then 6-8 months old. To manage to bring that average down when there will be roughly 55 new wells all helping take the average up, i just dont think your in the ballpark at all. Its almost a mathematic impossibility if future results are even equal to past resuslts, let alone if they come out better. 

That average, also already includes weston, kennedy and easly which are some of the older wells with the highest declines. So its been taken into account when they produce the average of 787boepd. 

Your calculation yeilding average boe of $70 could be correct. But given they said $5M net to aut. ITs hard to know what they have taken out prior to net. Are they talking royalties, royalties and tax, royalties, tax and hilcorp cost recovery. Who really knows, it would however be safe to say they acheved $70 or better per boe for the quarter. 

One month of this quarter has passed and i think its safe to say they should so far be achieving figures at least $20 higher then last quarter. 

The 6800boepd pre royalty and 5000 post royaltie is also very very conservative imo, and an outdated figure. What it does do though is allow us to calculate the approximate royalty. 1800/6800= 26.4% royalty.


----------



## rcm617 (4 May 2011)

The 787 is not the average for each well last quarter, its the daily average of AUT's share of all the wells over the quarter ie, as quoted by AUT, average production for the quarter.
 If it was the average production for each well, net sales to AUT would be well over the $5 million mark.


----------



## condog (4 May 2011)

RCM, i see what your saying. Yes my error , i stand corrected. 

This table holds the key though to projecting a more accurate average, then the Q1 of approx 364 per well. 
	

		
			
		

		
	





You will note that many of the later wells already have equivelent or greater total production numbers then those earlier wells (Weston, Easely and Kennedy).

Take turnbull 3 for example which has more production already then Weston and Easely combined. Turnbull 4 has more total production then Kennedy.
Patinio already has more then Easily,  and Sienkeiwicz or Franke already have almost as much as Easely. So i think we need to largely take Easley, Weston and Kennedy influence out of any average we come up with . 

Im going out to lunch so have to go


----------



## prgudula (4 May 2011)

New announcement on Prospectus out

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1555&EID=66331154


----------



## trader8888 (4 May 2011)

I have worked out that average production is 445BOEPD per well.

They say end of April production was at 1,660 BOEPD (after royalties) on 23 wells, pre royalties = 2250 BOEPD at %25 royalty.

So

2250 / 23 = 98 BOEPD (Net to AUT)

(NRI) 22% of 445 = 98

Total field production is at 10,235 BOEPD. This is figure is hampered a little from the poor first few wells drilled a year ago and the lower NRI's of some of the wells.


----------



## skc (4 May 2011)

trader8888 said:


> I have worked out that average production is 445BOEPD per well.
> 
> They say end of April production was at 1,660 BOEPD (after royalties) on 23 wells, pre royalties = 2250 BOEPD at %25 royalty.
> 
> ...




Couldn't help but stick my head in here... some really good analysis being done here.

Clearly average daily production is an important variable and it has a direct linear relationship to the value of AUT.

However, another very high impact variable is in fact the PE multiple. Can I ask how do you (or anyone) choose the PE value? Is it correct to use PE of 10 or 15 if the wells only produce economically for a defined period of time?


----------



## trader8888 (4 May 2011)

skc said:


> Couldn't help but stick my head in here... some really good analysis being done here.
> 
> Clearly average daily production is an important variable and it has a direct linear relationship to the value of AUT.
> 
> However, another very high impact variable is in fact the PE multiple. Can I ask how do you (or anyone) choose the PE value? Is it correct to use PE of 10 or 15 if the wells only produce economically for a defined period of time?




The PE value is not chosen it is worked out, first you find the earnings per share or EPS then from this figure you work out what PE ratio your company is trading at. Say your company is currently trading at a PE of 10 you can then use higer PE's to work out how much growth can be made. The Energy sector average at the moment is a PE of 24.

I would'nt be giving AUT a discounted PE at the moment as the full field development is'nt planned till 2019 thus the field or production won't decline till after that year.

These are the equations if you are interested - 

EPS- Net income – Dividends on stock / Average outstanding shares

PE Ratio - Market value per Share / Earnings per Share (EPS) 

I found this site very educational - 

http://www.investopedia.com/


----------



## suhm (4 May 2011)

I'm just wondering where you got that table from condog, I don't remember seeing it in a presentation, very useful information though.


----------



## rcm617 (4 May 2011)

Now we're starting to get a bit closer to actual production averages per well. 
I've worked out end of 2011 EBIT using predictions from AUT's presentation of 5000boe post royalties (5000*90*365) to equal $163.9m, so just a bit more than your fourth spreadsheet. If it was me I'd also put in depreciation of 10% for the wells, or about $12m in 2011. And I think $90 might be a bit generous for the present price of oil, but down the track the oil price will probably run past this. 
Like I said, a lot of assumptions, but I would imagine AUT wouldn't be to far out with their predictions for year end in their latest presentation.
Suhm, that table was from the quarterly.


----------



## skc (4 May 2011)

trader8888 said:


> The PE value is not chosen it is worked out, first you find the earnings per share or EPS then from this figure you work out what PE ratio your company is trading at. Say your company is currently trading at a PE of 10 you can then use higer PE's to work out how much growth can be made. The Energy sector average at the moment is a PE of 24.
> 
> I would'nt be giving AUT a discounted PE at the moment as the full field development is'nt planned till 2019 thus the field or production won't decline till after that year.




Thanks but you may have mis-interpreted where I was coming from. The PE in the valuation model shared by condog is an input variable - it is not worked out. The model tried to work out the EBIT at end of 2011 and 2012, then multiple that by the PE variable (where he used 10, 15, 20 and sector average of 23). 

My question is which PE is the right number to use in this instance - as you can see it has as big an impact as oil production per day.


----------



## trader8888 (4 May 2011)

skc said:


> Thanks but you may have mis-interpreted where I was coming from. The PE in the valuation model shared by condog is an input variable - it is not worked out. The model tried to work out the EBIT at end of 2011 and 2012, then multiple that by the PE variable (where he used 10, 15, 20 and sector average of 23).
> 
> My question is which PE is the right number to use in this instance - as you can see it has as big an impact as oil production per day.




Well IMO for a company like AUT with the potential for massive reserves and production growth ahead of it, the sector average would be the benchmark PE ratio to work of.


----------



## condog (5 May 2011)

OK heres my latest correction after taking into account what RCM identified as an error in my previous calculations. Note that if you take out Kennedy, Weston, Easely and T1 the average flow for overall production is up around 500. Its probably appropriate imo to take out the first 3 but not T1. Why? due to the future wells imo will be more accurately repreresented by the later wells in terms of flows and declines.

Make sure you do your own research and seek advice. Do not act on these numbers, they are for discussion purposes only and may contain errors.




Note this is a cashflow only projection. Valuations could be higher or lower, depending on reserves importance to individual investors.


----------



## RaymondJ (5 May 2011)

Your figures seem reasonable to me Condog I think most people can manipulate those figures with there own opinions on PE and flow rates. People can easily use different PE values to get an average if they want. Im thinking that $90 p/boe will probably be a bit cheap for 2012. The U.S Dept of Energy gives an average price for WTI next year as $113 U.S. not including spot prices.

Just 1 quest Are your figures in U.S. currency or Au currency? I think AUT sells at U.S. dollars but I could be wrong.

Tks


----------



## condog (5 May 2011)

All in USD at this stage, but whilever they are reinvesting profits into development, possibly best not to convert currencies.


----------



## rcm617 (5 May 2011)

Might be interesting to compare two comparable sized Australian producers. 
BPT has a MC of $996m, with $160m cash, and revenue of $513.3m for the last four quarterlies.
AWE has a MC of $775, with $75m cash, and revenue of $299m in the last four quarterlies. 
Most of their revenue is from conventional oil and gas, with minor involvement in US shales, but both have early extensive shale acreage in Australia.
Although not exactly comparable, I would suggest that some of AUT's growth potential is already built into the price when you compare revenue from these established producers.


----------



## basilio (5 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Might be interesting to compare two comparable sized Australian producers.
> BPT has a MC of $996m, with $160m cash, and revenue of $513.3m for the last four quarterlies.
> AWE has a MC of $775, with $75m cash, and revenue of $299m in the last four quarterlies.
> Most of their revenue is from conventional oil and gas, with minor involvement in US shales, but both have early extensive shale acreage in Australia.
> Although not exactly comparable, I would suggest that some of AUT's growth potential is already built into the price when you compare revenue from these established producers.




Pretty sobering information. These are all established energy producers and explorers.  In that sense they don't have the "rush" of speculative energy that surrounds potential new players in the market. Perhaps the market doesn't value energy stocks as strongly as we would like to think  when they simply become boring energy producers ?


----------



## condog (5 May 2011)

Dont forget though, the EFS shale is virtually a 100% success rate, is close to market in the 2nd biggest energy market in the world. Its in a low tax environment.

If we are talking revenue and AUT has 17.6 net wells at end of 2011, 17.6 wells x $90 x 400barrels x 365 days = Revenue of $231M on an annualised basis. By end of 2012 its more like 35 wells x $95 x 380 x 365 = revenue of $460M

End of 2013, 52 wells for $683Revenue.  Neither BPT or AWE have programs in place for such growth. 

And imo its this growing revenue, and the certainity of it,  thats the reason for higher AUT valuations then cash flow alone.


----------



## nioka (5 May 2011)

basilio said:


> Pretty sobering information. These are all established energy producers and explorers.  In that sense they don't have the "rush" of speculative energy that surrounds potential new players in the market. Perhaps the market doesn't value energy stocks as strongly as we would like to think  when they simply become boring energy producers ?




Interesting to look at the AWE chart over the years. A good example of an oiler. A good example of OIL FEVER. All oilers have the risk that eventually they will contract the disease. Going back years when the first Australian oil was discovered at Moonie I had a friend that had a few shares in them. They got to 50 pounds a share and he was worth a small fortune. He decided to wait until they got to 100 pounds, worked out that was an easy target. He retired poor and broke.

I'm not saying there is no more to come but my sentiment is long term sell. Maybe I'll sell too soon but that will be better than holding too long. Oil, even for a producer, is a spec stock, remains a spec stock and that makes some of the PE ratios quoted here as very optomistic.


----------



## skc (5 May 2011)

nioka said:


> Oil, even for a producer, is a spec stock, remains a spec stock and that makes some of the PE ratios quoted here as very optomistic.




That's what I wanted to point out. When you multiply a cashflow by a PE of 10, you are assuming that cash flow will last FOREVER with a discount rate of 10%. If that cash flow lasts only 10 year, the 'equivalent' PE is only 6.1. 

When valuing an oiler, make sure you don't apply a high PE to their peak cashflow/earnings. If you do that you are guaranteed a high valuation, but in fact you are paying for oil that hasn't even been found yet.

For AUT their cashflow/earning ramps up quite substantially over the next few years before tapering off (according to their presentation), so applying a PE (of any number) is somewhat incorrect due to that cashflow profile. Best to just do a NPV on the projected cash flow, and add in a conservative estimate of terminal value (the value of the company beyond the cash flow projection period), and pick a discount rate that will still give you appropriate risk adjusted return.


----------



## Magic Man (5 May 2011)

Good news... the volume is heading upwards


----------



## trader8888 (5 May 2011)

Condog ive done the figures on the NET wells and it is closer to 15.8 for AUT, The average is bought down by the lower WI's in the first wells drilled. The average NRI for AUT this year is %20.


----------



## trader8888 (5 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Might be interesting to compare two comparable sized Australian producers.
> BPT has a MC of $996m, with $160m cash, and revenue of $513.3m for the last four quarterlies.
> AWE has a MC of $775, with $75m cash, and revenue of $299m in the last four quarterlies.
> Most of their revenue is from conventional oil and gas, with minor involvement in US shales, but both have early extensive shale acreage in Australia.
> Although not exactly comparable, I would suggest that some of AUT's growth potential is already built into the price when you compare revenue from these established producers.




I have'nt done the figures on BPT but my ETRADE account has them at a PE of 55 AND AWE a PE of 75. They have AUT at a PE of 25. 

Their CAPEX must be massive which errodes their cashflow. I would think they have alot of wildcat wells that turn up nothing as well. IMO AUT still has alot of growth left in it.


----------



## estseon (5 May 2011)

"For AUT their cashflow/earning ramps up quite substantially over the next few years before tapering off (according to their presentation), so applying a PE (of any number) is somewhat incorrect due to that cashflow profile. Best to just do a NPV on the projected cash flow, and add in a conservative estimate of terminal value (the value of the company beyond the cash flow projection period), and pick a discount rate that will still give you appropriate risk adjusted return. "

skc - agree 100%. At the present, AUT is an incorporated project and project analysis appears to be appropriate. That implies NPV valuation.

However, with multiple increases in NPV possible using closer spacings, achieving higher EURs, counting the Austin chalk reservoir (which is producing through Weston), infill purchases to reduce the 'boundaries discount' of 10-15%, the added value from NLG stripping and the reduced capital cost of drilling likely, that should prove to be a very profitable basis for valuation of the company. And it could add value in advance of increased earnings.

When the company starts generating cash significantly in excess of that needed for investment in its current project, it could then look at other potential projects to maintain growth. But growth is assured over the next few years from just this project and they could have other reserves on the acreage that they have yet to explore.


----------



## Magic Man (5 May 2011)

Latest from Euroz.. $4.10 Valuation.. 



What We Think:

As a result of the commissioning of the new wet-gas pipeline in the field at the start of April, Netherland and Sewell will recognise an additional 14mmbbls of LPGs in AUT's reserves. 

Allowing for associated compression to gas volumes, we estimate AUT's current total reserve position to be circa 90mmbboe (comprising 53mmbbls oil, 14mmbbls LPGs and 23mmboe gas). 

This will be reflected in the subsequent reserves statement in the Mar Q, 2012 (ie as at Dec 31 2011). 

Production data from AUT's circa 25 wells now flowing includes at least 15 wells with more than 3 months to beyond 12mnths of production data. 

Out-performance of AUT's average well to Netherland & Sewell's type-curve is currently circa +15%. 

We would expect Netherland and Sewell to recognise this to a reasonable degree (if not in its entirety) cum the next statement. 

This would push 2P reserves towards 100 mmboe on this basis. 

Furthermore, some 10-15% of AUT's acreage is not currently assigned any reserves by N&S (as can't fit an 80 acre graticule). This will be rationalised over the next couple of years by lease swaps and unitisation. 

We believe upside to reserves would be linear ie. 15% inc. on this basis.

We see that the potential quantum of step-wise changes to reserves to be +2x our estimates of reserves cum the next statement (circa 100 mmboe). 

This can start to be realised with the JV experimenting with downsizing to well spacing to 60acres (currently full field development assumed at 80acres by N&S) from this Q. 

Effective drainage will also involve shallower wells to target the top of the Eagle Ford sequence. This can improve reservoir recovery factors from 5-10% currently to over 20% through increased "harvestibility". 

Additionally, by beginning to test well spacing, the Operator will be well placed to understand full field development requirements in terms of optimisation of well and infrastructure design, logistics and services requirements and development sequencing/scheduling well ahead of full field development commencing in earnest from mid-CY'12. 

Our current A$3.64/sh valuation will require reassessment in light of the increased reserves potential well performance.

Our price target will remain ahead of valuation in light of the low geological and commercial risks associated with AUT's onshore Texan oil assets.

Investment Case:

AUT remains a stand-out emerging oil producer, offering enviable low risk growth to production and earnings over the next 7+ yrs. AUT remains unique in that it offers pure exposure to arguably (and demonstrably) the best part of the Eagle Ford shale oil trend.

Significant short and medium term upside can be realised for AUT's reserves via continued outperformance of wells and ultimate well spacing: AUT has capacity to boast at least 90 mmboe 2P by year end and more than double these reserves with increased drilling density. 

We retain our Buy recommendation and $4.10/sh price target. We flag upside risk to our valuation and price targets upon considering the considerable change to the scope of the project on account of the tangible reserve growth potential and improving well economics.


----------



## condog (6 May 2011)

Latest spreadsheet in light of Euroz report. Note number of shares has changed. Flows a lot more conservative. Increased NRI in 2012, due to increasing NRI of sugarkane post Dec 2010, and majority of 2011 wells not in sugarkane.





Do your own research and seek expert advice, specific to your needs. Do not act on this, it is for discussion purposes only, may contain errors. Its a price target for Dec 31st 2011 and Dec 31st 2012

In my opinion a PE of 10 is too conservative. Im working on 15 to 20 PE.


----------



## condog (9 May 2011)

Hiway frac data from petrohawk - agent dug it up on HC. Thats a substantial result, 32% at 90 days.


----------



## Assasin (9 May 2011)

To me, the trialling and ultimate success of Highway frac will be as good as an acreage aquisition in any sweetspot but without the need for any CR or associated dilution issues. 
This just adds so much value to a company. Aint technology a wonderful thing.


----------



## condog (9 May 2011)

Assasin said:


> To me, the trialling and ultimate success of Highway frac will be as good as an acreage aquisition in any sweetspot but without the need for any CR or associated dilution issues.
> This just adds so much value to a company. Aint technology a wonderful thing.




Go to say i totally agree. Whatsw important to recognise is its not like drilling 32% more wells. Its like having 32% more wells drilled and fracced virtually for free. Got to love that. 

Petrohawk have basically done enough wells to know that in our highly pressurised zone there will be susbstantial benefits. The 43% increase in pressure on the AUT acerage is insane. Imagine Morgan flowing at 32% more and  43% more pressure. 

Wonder if any of our 10 May fracs will be Highway, i certainly hope so, but it might be a bit soon to get it all organised.


----------



## condog (9 May 2011)

On the Petrohawk website they have an entire 8 page presentation devoted to "Hiway Fraccing"

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9NDE0Nzg4fENoaWxkSUQ9NDI2NTA4fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1


It appears to me the NGL's have the same declines as non-HiWay fracs, but have higher flows at IP, 30 day, 60 day and 90 days. Whether this will just improve NPV's or EUR's will take a long time to be known imo.

The dry gas  imo has both better flows and better declines. Although the data is limited and volatile.

Makes for interesting reading.


----------



## estseon (10 May 2011)

This is what Petrohawk said in the release on 22 Feb 2011 - 4th quarter results etc

=====================================================
Company Employs Breakthrough Schlumberger Frac Technology Successfully in the Eagle Ford Shale

Petrohawk implemented Schlumberger's MP7 (HiWAY) flow-channel fracturing technique since October 2010 on a select number of wells as a trial to determine the impact of this novel methodology on horizontal multistage production in the Eagle Ford Shale. The initial tests were located in various areas of Hawkville Field. The HiWAY fracturing technique combines fit-for-purpose fracture modeling, fracturing fluids and high-frequency proppant pulsations. The HiWAY method effectively creates flow channels within the fracture network and increases the overall stimulated reservoir volume and permeability.

Initial production results from this limited set of wells reflect average production increases of approximately 37% in the areas with gas and natural gas liquids and an average of approximately 32% in the high condensate yield areas. Additionally, EUR increases from the limited trial, based on internal estimates, ranged from 25% to 90% higher as compared to offsetting wells completed with conventional fracturing techniques. Petrohawk has converted 100% of frac services provided by Schlumberger in the Eagle Ford to HiWAY. Currently, Petrohawk is utilizing all available capacity of this technology.

Any changes to expectations for the Company's Eagle Ford Shale productivity and EURs as a result of the use of HiWAY will be made after additional data is gathered. 
======================================================

So, they are saying higher levels of production and higher EURs. NPV10 will benefit from the increased level of early production and also from the increased recovery. NPV10 will be reduced for the increased cost but, from what I have seen on the Schlumberger site, the increased cost might be their increased profit mark up because they say that they use the same machinery etc.

This might be the first of the innovative developments. It'll be interesting to see what Hilcorp do.


----------



## condog (11 May 2011)

Buyers beginning to stack up again as sellers drying up a bit. Looking good, especially given 10 well completions to be announced in next 20 days, then 6-9 wells per month for remainder of the year.


----------



## Magic Man (11 May 2011)

condog said:


> Buyers beginning to stack up again as sellers drying up a bit. Looking good, especially given 10 well completions to be announced in next 20 days, then 6-9 wells per month for remainder of the year.




Good isnt it Condog.. Feeling confident.. What are your current thoughts on HOG and TXN, Is there enough news flow comming from these companies to push the share price up? Are you buying HOG?

Thanks.


----------



## condog (12 May 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Good isnt it Condog.. Feeling confident.. What are your current thoughts on HOG and TXN, Is there enough news flow comming from these companies to push the share price up? Are you buying HOG?
> 
> Thanks.




TXN has a few well results soon, which imo will either put a rocket under it or smash it. (I hold). HOG, is very cheap imo, given its free cash flow. Its Chets well is around 5 months till results are known and if its good, HOG should really pick up. (I Hold). Both very early in development, thus huge risk compared to AUT, however, more upside potential.


----------



## condog (12 May 2011)

Announcment out , plenty happening.

Across Aurora‟s gross acreage position of 74,800 acres there are presently 4 drilling rigs and 2 full time fracture stimulation crews operating, with a temporary 3rd stimulation crew carrying out ”ž*HiWay‟ stimulations on 4 wells*. *The operator is ahead of target to complete the planned 60 well drilling program in 2011.*

Forster 30 day average 758boepd

Multiple wells been placed on production with no flow data out yet. Multiple drilled and waiting on fracs. 

All looks to be progressing at a frantic pace. Making $2.78 seem obscenely cheap imo.


----------



## isplicer (12 May 2011)

Dagnab it! The resistance at the mid-2.90's level is rock strong. Hopefully we have better luck next time


----------



## dashwood (13 May 2011)

looks like someone miscounted on the barrels oil price back up again! Looking for an upward adjustment on AUT but oh dear what are the SEA woes?


----------



## condog (13 May 2011)

New update -  Holman only got 4% decline from 30 - 60 days with 850 flow. Amazing result.


----------



## estseon (13 May 2011)

condog said:


> New update -  Holman only got 4% decline from 30 - 60 days with 850 flow. Amazing result.




They're managing production from the recent wells by choking down.

Beuhring flows might be less than the 'norm' but look at the condensate ratio: 797 bbls/1mmcfg. That compares with Foster at 243 (Ipanama, so expected) and Hollman at 270.

From AUT quarterly: Turnbull 4 was 440, Morgan 294 and Kowalik 324 just for comparison. Beuhring is in a different league.


----------



## rcm617 (18 May 2011)

trader8888 said:


> I have'nt done the figures on BPT but my ETRADE account has them at a PE of 55 AND AWE a PE of 75. They have AUT at a PE of 25.
> 
> Their CAPEX must be massive which errodes their cashflow. I would think they have alot of wildcat wells that turn up nothing as well. IMO AUT still has alot of growth left in it.




I wouldnt rely on those figures too much, AUT's revenue over the last six quarterlies is less than $1 million, so cant see where they get the PE of 25 from. 
Certainly AWE have had a lot of dud wells lately, but BPT's strike rate is pretty consistant in the Cooper Basin, and of course the wells are a lot cheaper.
Both are in the early stages of developing their shale assets, and have the cashflow to do so without having to rely on capital raisings, as well as having enough acreage to farm out to majors.
Probably not directly comparable, just raised them to show that some of the future multiples used may be a bit optimistic.


----------



## bennywizard (18 May 2011)

AUDIO BROADCAST
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) provides the opportunity to listen to an audio broadcast 
with Mr. Jonathan Stewart, Executive Chairman and CEO of Aurora. 

Mr Stewart provides an update on Aurora’s expanded acreage in the Eagle Ford shale, 
drilling plans for 2011, discusses Aurora’s listing on the TSX and movements in its share 
register. 
The broadcast can be found on Aurora’s website at:  
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/ManagementInterviews

Nothing really new but good to have confirmation from the Executive Chairman that things are on track...and we will be self funding by mid 2012, focus is only the  over pressured oil rich area which is good to hear. As John says in this broadcast the elephant in the room is the well spacing...he doesn't mention when they will be doing this though, I guess after they have completed the 60 wells they need to drill for this year.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (18 May 2011)

I would like to quote from trader888's post on HC. I agree and remember Jon saying this type of stuff. The pipeline sounds very good and he seemed very confident when talking about the future. 



> These are some key notes i took from the interview with jon.
> 
> - 27 days from rig up to rig down, and they see that number coming down.
> 
> ...


----------



## trader8888 (18 May 2011)

rcm617 said:


> I wouldnt rely on those figures too much, AUT's revenue over the last six quarterlies is less than $1 million, so cant see where they get the PE of 25 from.
> Certainly AWE have had a lot of dud wells lately, but BPT's strike rate is pretty consistant in the Cooper Basin, and of course the wells are a lot cheaper.
> Both are in the early stages of developing their shale assets, and have the cashflow to do so without having to rely on capital raisings, as well as having enough acreage to farm out to majors.
> Probably not directly comparable, just raised them to show that some of the future multiples used may be a bit optimistic.




Yeah fair enough, i think they calulate on a estimated 1 year foward EPS though.


----------



## estseon (18 May 2011)

benny

"As John says in this broadcast the elephant in the room is the well spacing...he doesn't mention when they will be doing this though, I guess after they have completed the 60 wells they need to drill for this year."

AUT has produced so much material over the last month that it's difficult to see the wood for the trees.

However, if you look at slide 18 of the presentation released 2 May 2011, you will see reference to the tighter spacing and the statement that "Testing to commence to determine efficient drainage / spacing and impact of zipper fracs (simultaneous stimulation of adjacent wells)"

I read that as saying NOW - they are experimenting both with HiWay fraccing and with closer spacing now in preparation for full field development post HBP (drilling to Hold By Production).

That is possibly why they have made such a song and dance about saying that they are ahead of schedule for drilling to HBP. They have some slack to start the planning to optimise field development and resource recovery.

Whether or not NSAI can be persuaded to book or reflect the results of this experimentation in their reserves report later in the year, we should get some feedback through brokers' notes and company presentations. Furthermore, the schematic pictures of possible arrangements for drilling and fracture stimulation suggests that they will be tapping the overlying Austin Chalk (which must be within the 350ft of pay zone shown), and those reserves have not been counted yet.

So, I will certainly be holding on tight to the shares that I have because the next 12 months or so could see a further step re-rating.


----------



## bennywizard (19 May 2011)

...."if you look at slide 18 of the presentation released 2 May 2011, you will see reference to the tighter spacing and the statement that "Testing to commence to determine efficient drainage / spacing and impact of zipper fracs (simultaneous stimulation of adjacent wells)

I read that as saying NOW - they are experimenting both with HiWay fraccing and with closer spacing now in preparation for full field development post HBP (drilling to Hold By Production).

That is possibly why they have made such a song and dance about saying that they are ahead of schedule for drilling to HBP. They have some slack to start the planning to optimise field development and resource recovery"



Hey Estseon,
Good point, I've written to management asking clarification about this, certainly it would make sense as they are ahead of schedule for dilling to hold production.

On another note it was good to see oil stocks up today


----------



## bennywizard (20 May 2011)

AUT replied quickly, this is the reply I just received:

Thank you for your enquiry relating to well spacing and the ongoing refinement of the stimulation operations of our Sugarkane Wells.

At present, based on publically released information, I can advise the following:-

·         The Operator is planning to stimulate a total of 4 wells utilising the Schlumberger ‘HiWay’ fracture stimulation technique before the end of June. 
·         The Operator will investigate the effects of decreasing the horizontal separation of wells over the coming months at a number of locations across the acreage, this activity is compatible with the ongoing general focus of holding land by production and will not interfere with that process.

Aurora will provide an update on the results of the above programs once the analysis and comparison to offset wells provides definitive results.  From our recent presentation you will understand that we are averaging something under 90 days between well spud and first production at this time and it will require several months of production data to be able to draw sensible conclusions.  As a result of these approximate durations we would anticipate  being able to advise on the results of the Schlumberger HiWay fracs around the end of Q3 2011 and on the tighter spacing towards the end of the calendar year.


----------



## estseon (20 May 2011)

Brilliant, benny (now I understand why you call yourself benny WIZARD).

As they are proposing to blend the drilling experiment in with drilling to HBP, it suggests that they will drill a number of clusters of wells across the oil and oil/gas windows to see how the performance varies with changing condensate ratio and formation pressure.

They appear to be targeting to get results by the end of the calendar year - that might be relevant to the NSAI valuation, which will be based on producing wells at that time.

It sounds as though they may have allocated a rig to do this? "A number" sounds to me like 4 or more. 2 would be "a couple". 3 would be "a few". Perhaps that is too technical.

They have 7 months - that would be, say, 8 standard wells for a rig but the multi-wells will obviously take longer.

Should be some interesting news towards the end of the year.


----------



## condog (25 May 2011)

Macquarie C$3.75 target
Euroz $4.50 target
TD securities $3.50
Credit Sussie $3.85 Target
Comm Bank $3.45

Average Consensus forecast = $3.81

Current sp = $2.85  = 25.2% under consensus forecast. Most analysts say significant upside as well


----------



## MACCA350 (26 May 2011)

Nice push through $3 this morning taking out very large orders. Market depth is strengthening on the buy side and weakening on the sell side. Might be a turning point after the last 4 months of sideways movement.

Cheers


----------



## MACCA350 (26 May 2011)

And another push up, now at $3.08 up 7% 

Cheers


----------



## Magic Man (26 May 2011)

MACCA350 said:


> And another push up, now at $3.08 up 7%
> 
> Cheers




Loving this stock today.. The sellers are getting eaten alive!!


----------



## Joe Blow (26 May 2011)

MACCA350 said:


> And another push up, now at $3.08 up 7%
> 
> Cheers






Magic Man said:


> Loving this stock today.. The sellers are getting eaten alive!!




How about a little more content gentlemen? This is pretty low content stuff.

What do you think is behind today's gains? Is the volume low, average or high? Any resistance levels been breached? Got a chart to offer the readers of this thread?


----------



## explod (26 May 2011)

No brainer really, its in the news, particularly from Goldman Sachs (see Financial Times)that oil is going to $130 a barrell soon.

On the chart, there was a lot of overhead resistance at $3.00, this was broken decisively today, next level to breach is around $3.25 and there will be smiles.  

However volume has spiked with the rise so could retrace quickly to the $2.90 area.

Not a stock I hold, just my


----------



## estseon (26 May 2011)

explod said:


> No brainer really, its in the news, particularly from Goldman Sachs (see Financial Times)that oil is going to $130 a barrell soon.
> 
> On the chart, there was a lot of overhead resistance at $3.00, this was broken decisively today, next level to breach is around $3.25 and there will be smiles.
> 
> ...




It's a bit of a puzzle - that change of stance by GS (possibly reflecting their proprietary position) has been public for a couple of days (reported 24/5/11 in London). Credit Suisse has taken up the baton with a 30 page report (HC post by jwfc) but that was a couple of days ago as well. The TSX was very quiet yesterday - price firmed to C$3 but on negligible volume (c82k). Trading volume for EKA was also about 3 x monthly average but resulted in little price movement. Mir on HC posted that it was institutional buying. It seems too early for results from the fracture stimulation and closer spacings to be a driver. 

The ASX short positions report might be worth looking at when it is published and TSX trading later today (my time) might indicate whether there is 'something going round the market' or whether it is just the ASX catching up with the robust brokers' reports.
**********************************************************************

Just posted on HC by Katiepie - Credit Suisse revised target $5.45. This will need some investigation. That's up from $3.85 reported by jwfc just a couple of days ago. Need to find out their reason for the upgrade if it's true.


----------



## Sharejon (27 May 2011)

Estseon,

I'm not sure about the Credit Suisse target, but maybe It's similar to how Macquarie graded AUT.

They placed a 'buy with a $3.75 target' on AUT, but included realistic upside reference towards $6.50 or so.

Maybe Credit Suisse have their 'upsize target' (pending successful hiway frac/well spacing adjustments) as $5.45?

Anyway that is just me guessing. A production update should be coming anyday now. And it's on our Longhorn acreage as well. Longhorn has been an incredibly producer for us recently.


----------



## poverty (27 May 2011)

The canadian listing finished at $3.32 up over 10% so here's hoping we're set for another big day today.  Finally AUT gathering some momentum again.


----------



## skyQuake (27 May 2011)

poverty said:


> The canadian listing finished at $3.32 up over 10% so here's hoping we're set for another big day today.  Finally AUT gathering some momentum again.




Following us up, its $3.20 AUD equivalent


----------



## Whistler (27 May 2011)

Sharejon said:


> Estseon,
> 
> I'm not sure about the Credit Suisse target, but maybe It's similar to how Macquarie graded AUT.
> 
> ...





I would sincerely appreciate someone posting the links to the Macquarie and Credit Suisse research reports, I have not been able to source them yet. Thanks in advance.


----------



## condog (28 May 2011)

Whistler said:


> I would sincerely appreciate someone posting the links to the Macquarie and Credit Suisse research reports, I have not been able to source them yet. Thanks in advance.




Credit Sussie
http://doc.research-and-analytics.c...=KOIArST+EBICre+I12yx6YKsd956PkpU6/pJ+pW7OCk=

Macquarie
http://image.remail.macquarie.com/l..._051811Aurora___Initiating_Coveragee81226.pdf


----------



## Whistler (28 May 2011)

Thanks condog for your assistance there. Very much appreciated.

Credit Suisse's unrisked valuation is A$5.39 per share. 

The Macquarie research says "Based on 12 wells per section and our high case type curve (200bbl per mmcf gas liquids yield), this increases to $6.69/share". Their base case is stated at 8 wells per section so 12 wells is a 1.5 times loading.

A$6.69 per share x 417m shares is $2.8billion. 192 wells (8 wells per section) x 1.5 (to 12 wells per section) results in 288 wells. 288 wells (net to AUT) at an average NPV per well of $9.7m equals $2.8billion.

From what I can understand this average NPV valuation (across all ground types) of $9.7m per well is based on an NPV (post tax and at a discount rate of 10%).

Am I correct in my reading of this i.e. an average of $9.7m after tax and at a 10% discount rate?


----------



## estseon (29 May 2011)

whistler

you didn't read the Credit Suisse report through.

The answer is on page 5


----------



## prgudula (30 May 2011)

COMPANY PRESENTATION MATERIAL

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1589&EID=64416051


----------



## condog (30 May 2011)

From page 10   

IRR of each well = 150%

PAge 14

Cash flow graph

Annual cash flow to be almost a billion by 2013, 1.5 bilion in 2014, 2 billion in 2016 and 2017.

40 wells been drilled, 40 more in 2011
30 wells on production
currently 4 rigs, 2 frac crews and 1 schlumberger crew doing the Hiway fracs

Drilling obligations to secure leases are well ahead of schedule and will be completed by mid 2012

They have commenced testing of tighter well spacing.

Average production is now over 1000 boepd

Declines are better then NSAI estimates , but not hugely. 14% above NSAI estimates. this figure does not account for NGL stripping.

Average declines after 10 months is sitting at 58%. 

Production to be over 10,000 mboe/d by 2012 and over 20,000 by 2014, peaking in 2019 at 29000 mboe/d


----------



## Miner (30 May 2011)

Joe Blow said:


> How about a little more content *gentlemen*? "
> This is pretty low content stuff." - Mi[/COLOR][/I]ner
> 
> What do you think is behind today's gains? Is the volume low, average or high? Any resistance levels been breached? Got a chart to offer the readers of this thread?




Hi Joe 

At the outset Sorry for being off the topic this time. Please take it as tongue and cheek. laughter is a good medicine as they say.

But people with nicknames could be male or female. Unless they want to tell themselves. So the only people technically know about the posters genders could be themselves and the Administrator. Did you give away their identity as a bunch of blokes?? 

Ha Ha. Please do not get Pxxx off  and start using the stick to flog me under the  "no content on AUT" .
To ensure I do contribute something before gets hit with salvos  - please see the attached investor presentation published today in ASX to unfold the reasons for AUT movement and prospects.
DYOR - DNH


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (30 May 2011)

First thing I noticed was that Aurora has go a new logo  Well first time I've seen it. Interesting to see it drop a small bit today so far after a confirmatory nudge in AEF on Friday... and since then nothing has changed... I'm off to go start a curry and to read this presentation.

Cheers.


----------



## condog (30 May 2011)

condog said:


> From page 10
> 
> IRR of each well = 150%
> 
> ...




ignore cash flow , i got it wrong, appologies, will correct when i get time ta


----------



## dashwood (30 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> First thing I noticed was that Aurora has go a new logo  Well first time I've seen it. Interesting to see it drop a small bit today so far after a confirmatory nudge in AEF on Friday... and since then nothing has changed... I'm off to go start a curry and to read this presentation.
> 
> Cheers.




Yeah everytime AUT nudges or pulls,  AEF traders get a sneak preview of action to come on TSX. Anyone know of an original TSX stock now dual-listing on ASX I want that advantage me thinks.


----------



## Sdajii (30 May 2011)

Any idea when we'll have some meaningful results from the tighter well spacings? I'm sure I'm not the only one eagerly waiting for that one.

I was a little surprised about the price drop today, but figure it's probably just profit taking (of course I'm just guessing). What's the term for the opposite of a dead cat bounce? Probably a bit of that, and people who spent the last couple of months regretting not taking profit at $3.30 back in February deciding to do it today with Friday's high and Canada's strong lead. Let's hope the near future tells them they moved too soon 

I'm no technical analyst and accordingly this is almost meaningless, but my guess is we'll see resistance at $3.30 and test it shortly.


----------



## estseon (30 May 2011)

"Any idea when we'll have some meaningful results from the tighter well spacings? I'm sure I'm not the only one eagerly waiting for that one"

In a previous document (there have been quite a few research docs and presentations) the end of this calendar year, or Q4 2011 was mentioned. They are proposing, I believe, to run the experimental wells adjacent to wells completed in the current "orthodox" manner to get a proper comparison. Note that Hilcorp has selected the oilier acreage of Excelsior for 2 HiWay fracs, the condensate rich acreage of Longhorn for a further test and one in the S/L for the fourth. If that S/L test is adjacent to Morgan/Rancho/Kowalik it will be in the more condensate rich part of the S/L.

Separately, AUT has mentioned differential recoveries of oil and gas in place for the oilier reserves (about 5%) and the gassier reserves (up to 10%). So developed fraccing techniques may have a greater affect on recoveries from the oilier reserves.

Tighter well spacings could result in lower per/well costs if they use the same pad, vertical and production facilities. That, in itself, will increase the NPV of each well.


----------



## condog (30 May 2011)

esteon AUT have a well recompletion application approved on TRRC for Turnbul 2. This is relevant to your moderated post on recompletions. Hopefully we will get some meaningful data in due course from it on the economics of doing recompletions on poorer wells.


----------



## Sdajii (30 May 2011)

I remember Q4 being spoken about, but I thought we may have moved the schedule closer if they're already drilling wells with tighter spacing. They should be flowing well withing Q3, but I don't know how long they'll have to flow for to give meaningful data.


----------



## skyQuake (31 May 2011)

$$$ flow today. Should see a VERY decent close on VERY decent volume.


----------



## poverty (31 May 2011)

skyQuake said:


> $$$ flow today. Should see a VERY decent close on VERY decent volume.




Looks set to fly


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (31 May 2011)

Hmmmm who is betting we will see another 52w high today??? I see nearly 100,000 shares on offer at $3.35 mark... hopefully they realize what they are selling and cancel their bids.


EDIT: Im looking at the depth now 40k at 3.34 got MOBBED in about 10 mins... There was 80k at 3.35 about 5 mins again and now only 60k.. if this continues I would suggest AUT will be atleast at 3.40 by the end of the day... massive result if so.. congrats to the guys who held and congrats to the buyers too. You gotta have faith in a stock with awesome fundamentals and one that keeps giving us great results.

EDITv2: Yep... as I said the just hit another 52w high... here come the profit takers though.


----------



## poverty (31 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hmmmm who is betting we will see another 52w high today??? I see nearly 100,000 shares on offer at $3.35 mark... hopefully they realize what they are selling and cancel their bids.




If it gets to 3.40 is there any resistance left?


----------



## skyQuake (31 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hmmmm who is betting we will see another 52w high today??? I see nearly 100,000 shares on offer at $3.35 mark... hopefully they realize what they are selling and cancel their bids.
> 
> 
> EDIT: Im looking at the depth now 40k at 3.34 got MOBBED in about 10 mins... There was 80k at 3.35 about 5 mins again and now only 60k.. if this continues I would suggest AUT will be atleast at 3.40 by the end of the day... massive result if so.. congrats to the guys who held and congrats to the buyers too. You gotta have faith in a stock with awesome fundamentals and one that keeps giving us great results.
> ...




Highs will be at the close imo


----------



## alexc2005 (31 May 2011)

wow 3.42

full steam ahead?

Hard to know whether to stay for the long haul or take profits.

Could have made a fortune riding the ups and downs of this share.

I myself am in it for the long run, bring on $10.

EDIT 3.43


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (31 May 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Highs will be at the close imo




Im tending to agree... looking at the depth though a finish of around $3.42 would be impressive and I would love to see it finish there in one day... especially on no news apart from the already known stuff. AUT deserves a roll on realistically and aren't we due for another report this week?


----------



## yma (31 May 2011)

People with big capital gain this FY will likely to hold after 30th of June, good report with good target price and also the market is just getting better, in terms of resistance and support, if it get over the 52 high today then i think good day is comming. I am holing.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (31 May 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> wow 3.42
> 
> full steam ahead?
> 
> ...




I dont know how long you've been in this stock Alex, I haven't been in as long as many but enough to know if you buy at 80c you don't sell at $1.24. Ill give you the tip!! haha. Since getting massively back in at $1.60 I've learnt if your patient with this baby it will reward you all the way to the bank.  Obviously do what you gotta do but man, seriously hit the SELL button with much caution!!

If you need money desperately.... this would be the only way I'd sell.  Cheers. PS: Ill never get back that 36c of gains I missed out on .


----------



## alexc2005 (31 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I dont know how long you've been in this stock Alex, I haven't been in as long as many but enough to know if you buy at 80c you don't sell at $1.24. Ill give you the tip!! haha. Since getting massively back in at $1.60 I've learnt if your patient with this baby it will reward you all the way to the bank.  Obviously do what you gotta do but man, seriously hit the SELL button with much caution!!
> 
> If you need money desperately.... this would be the only way I'd sell.  Cheers. PS: Ill never get back that 36c of gains I missed out on .




I'm only new to this stock and sharetrading in generall (well, on my own anyway)

My average price of my parcel is 2.69, so i was a bit late to the game.

But, better late than never!

Definitely holding for the long term, AUT is going places, its pretty easy to see that


----------



## Flipper (31 May 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> I'm only new to this stock and sharetrading in generall (well, on my own anyway)
> 
> My average price of my parcel is 2.69, so i was a bit late to the game.
> 
> ...




Patience is definitely a virtue. Been holding this baby since May of last year. Initially bought in at about 74 cents and topped up a bit along the way. My CGT date was a few days ago so locking in some profits for now but definitely looking for a re-entry price for the long term. Thank you to Condog, Assassin, Esteon, Stajii and everyone else for all the information you guys posted here about AUT. It has been an extremely interesting (and profitable) learning curve.


----------



## estseon (31 May 2011)

Flipper said:


> Patience is definitely a virtue. Been holding this baby since May of last year. Initially bought in at about 74 cents and topped up a bit along the way. My CGT date was a few days ago so locking in some profits for now but definitely looking for a re-entry price for the long term. Thank you to Condog, Assassin, Esteon, Stajii and everyone else for all the information you guys posted here about AUT. It has been an extremely interesting (and profitable) learning curve.




Never be shy to take a profit and never mourn the extra profit that you could have made. Always deal within your comfort zone. Well done flipper. There'll always be another opportunity. 

My original holding (about 60%) cost me 42c and the rest, bought out of ADI proceeds, about 83c. I intend to continue to hold because I see AUT as relatively low risk but having the potential to multiply still even at this level. AUT SP is certainly capable of back-pedalling, we've seen that over the last month or so, but when the tide turns it can move at a significant pace. For a company with over 400m shares in issue, volume has been relatively small for such a significant hike in price. That suggests that a lot of the shares are tightly held, for the time being at least. Good luck all whatever you decide.


----------



## Simon29 (2 June 2011)

Just received this via email.

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Com...athonAcquireHilcorpEagleFordAcreageAUTComment


----------



## kamujian (2 June 2011)

well that news has definately had an impact

aurora is up 43 cents overnight on the toronto exchange.


----------



## martyfar (2 June 2011)

Hilcorp announces that Marathon Oil has accquired its stake in the Sugarloaf ....Aurora up 43 cents (12.2%) to $3.95.......... this on the back of the TSX down 2% and the DOW down 2,2%.... makes one wonder what the increase in share price may have been if the DOW and the TSX had not had such a hard night....


----------



## condog (2 June 2011)

AUT on the TSX has been up to and closed at $3.95 overnight

the preopens trades on AUT this morning look great

08:15:40 AM 3.763 25,100 94,451.30 OS XT 
08:10:27 AM 3.737 10,000 37,370.00 LT XT 
08:10:05 AM 3.577 20,000 71,540.00 LT XT 
08:09:51 AM 3.510 20,000 70,200.00 LT XT 
08:09:07 AM 3.461 110,000 380,710.00 LT XT 

Could be in for a huge day


----------



## skc (2 June 2011)

martyfar said:


> Hilcorp announces that Marathon Oil has accquired its stake in the Sugarloaf ....Aurora up 43 cents (12.2%) to $3.95.......... this on the back of the TSX down 2% and the DOW down 2,2%.... makes one wonder what the increase in share price may have been if the DOW and the TSX had not had such a hard night....




Can someone help me understand the lastest announcement? Marathon spent $3.5B to buy 141,000 net acres which is ~$25K per acre.

AUT has net acreage of 15,760. So at $25K/acre that's ~$400m. Compare that with AUT market cap of $1.35B. I understand that quality of acres matter but the flowrates in the announcement didn't really sound like a 3.5x mark up.

Why such big discrepency? Have I missed something completely?


----------



## McCoy Pauley (2 June 2011)

A beacon of green in a sea of red this morning.  Well done to all holders.  Unfortunately, I am no longer a holder.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 June 2011)

Refer to the comment I made before about AUT being a great play for over a year... this type of stock will keep bouncing back due to the fundamentals and the odd bit of luck that comes with prime acreage.


----------



## suhm (2 June 2011)

I don't really get it either, it uses p90 whereas everyone else i see uses p50 for recoveries and uses 3p instead of 2p reserves as valuation base.

Reserves may be understated due to new tech and different shale zones as condog alludes to but p90 means there is a 90% chance that the reserve that will be recovered will be lower than stated.

I was considering doing a swing trade on this in the morning but it got bid up in the last few secs pre open so pulled the order.


----------



## Magic Man (2 June 2011)

Hey nice Morning today. is it possible Marathon Energy could be lining up an aggressive full takeover of AUT and EKA?? 

Could this happen before November 1?


----------



## poverty (2 June 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Hey nice Morning today. is it possible Marathon Energy could be lining up an aggressive full takeover of AUT and EKA??
> 
> Could this happen before November 1?




What would you guys consider a fair price for your AUT shares?  I was planning to hold these for years and recieve many multiples on my investment.   LOL i haven't even held long enough to get a CGT discount :/


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 June 2011)

$6.50 atleast and I still wouldn't wanna sell.

I have been watching 602 business channel and they have not said more than 3 words about this and nothing on the announcement... they have no idea... I even rang them up and sent out emails. This proves the value of the acreages 100%.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 June 2011)

Guys watch 602 business channel they I rang them up again and they said they will try to contact Aurora and have a story about this awesome announcement today.


----------



## poverty (2 June 2011)

Great work BGG!


----------



## condog (2 June 2011)

its more to do with take over speculation then the marathon deal i suspect


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 June 2011)

condog said:


> its more to do with take over speculation then the marathon deal i suspect




Condog in your opinion is this takeover speculation warranted?

Business channel just had a small section on AUT, waiting for any other information.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (2 June 2011)

> Hi John,
> 
> I'm on my way out of the newsroom, we've been trying to get Aurora on for an interview - but needless to say, they're quite busy.
> 
> ...




Hopefully we get something


----------



## Assasin (2 June 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hopefully we get something




Nice work BGG.

Congratulations to all those who bought in just last week at under $3, your timing is brilliant.


----------



## Assasin (2 June 2011)

Can't believe Condog hasn't come up with a few of these??


:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## Sdajii (2 June 2011)

Haha! You beat me to it, Assassin!

I was very busy today, but had trouble staying focused, forever sneaking peaks at my phone to check AUT (and EKA and TXN... nice to be holding all of the things I knew of which were gaining today!  ). I quickly checked this forum in the afternoon and misread a post, thinking that our land had been purchased and we'd just gained because we'd sold out of a lot of acreage for a wad of money. I was suddenly less happy, but it was a relief to read the announcement properly!

It's great to see the portfolio surge ahead strongly on a bloodbath day like today! Let's hope tomorrow is a good day for the market, and AUT shines again 

I actually considered taking some profit on AUT not too long ago... very glad I didn't! (although I would have used the money to buy stuff which has gone up pretty strongly since then anyway... not as strongly as AUT).

I tend to agree with Condog about today's movement being due to takeover speculation rather than Marathon. I can't see Marathon taking over Hillcorp's job being all that Earth-changing for us. Perhaps it was just a catalyst for a run which was overdue.

We seem to trade for more in Canada than in Australia, even taking the currency differences into account. I don't know much at all about dual listings, but it looks like you could consistently make a profit buying in Australia, selling in Canada, and so on. What am I missing? (or should I get myself set up and just keep buying here and selling there?  ).

Congratulations to all holders


----------



## estseon (2 June 2011)

We're still within broker SP targets.

Jon Stewart's comment attributes a more than proportionate part of the purchase price to the more developed AUT acreage. Furthermore, he made soothing noises about AUT's ability to continue to fund the drilling programme, which, in any case, won't change much before 2012 even if Marathon hits the ground running.

By the end of calendar year 2011 we will have first results from the HiWay fracking experiment, from the closer, perhaps vertically offset (tapping into the Austin Chalk), drilling and from the re-work of Turnbull 2. Also, much of the 3p reserves will have been re-categorised to 2p and AUT will be on the final leg of drilling to secure leases by production.

I may be pinning too much significance on that re-work but I feel that it has implications for EURs. They are fracking in stages and the penetrations into the formation are at 200-300ft intervals. 

The acreage could well have a totally different value by then and all that AUT has to do is sit tight and do what it was going to do anyway.

What this deal does tell us is that we're likely to have a partner with very deep pockets which will buy out our interest at any time if a price can be agreed. Its a partner that's investing in the region for the long term. I don't imagine that Marathon is buying in to prove up, sell and move on.


----------



## skyQuake (2 June 2011)

estseon said:


> We're still within broker SP targets.




fyi - Euroz raised target, retained buy.
Pattersons retained hold.
Macquarie cut to hold.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (3 June 2011)

Tim Boreham has written about AUT in today's Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...its-over-the-top/story-e6frg9lo-1226068254728

A bit of a misleading headline given to the article by the subbie, IMO.


----------



## Magic Man (3 June 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Tim Boreham has written about AUT in today's Australian.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...its-over-the-top/story-e6frg9lo-1226068254728
> 
> A bit of a misleading headline given to the article by the subbie, IMO.




Sh*T article by some Skirt who would know nothing about the company


----------



## suhm (3 June 2011)

seems a fairish assesment to me as to price of acreage, the market is valuing aut acreage higher than for hilcorp, aut paid 23529USD per net acre in last transaciton vs 24822USD for marathon.

The people at Hilcorp are the operators of all AUT fields so should have a fair idea of what the value of the acreage is and the prices paid are consistent.


----------



## skc (3 June 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Sh*T article by some Skirt who would know nothing about the company




Can you offer any comments to the point he raised?



> This is where things get tricky: the Marathon deal values each acre acquired at around $US24,000 an acre. Aurora holds 15,760 net acres, which in crude terms means the market is ascribing a value of close to $100,000 an acre. Sure, the quality of Aurora's shared acreage is superior to that of the total ground acquired by Marathon. But at face value Aurora has either overshot the platform, or we have a rare case of private equity selling far too cheaply.


----------



## bennywizard (3 June 2011)

Regarding the newspaper article....
"the quality of Aurora's shared acreage is superior to that of the total ground acquired by Marathon. But at face value Aurora has either overshot the platform, or we have a rare case of private equity selling far too cheaply"

The important thing that needs to be emphasized is that Marathon acquired a lot of land of varying degrees of quality, on average of course they paid less than the prime land that AUT holds.  Its crazy to average it all out and then value AUT accordingly, when AUT clearly has prime land.  I do think Marathon have pulled off a great deal though and wish AUT could have had a slice of some of it. On the other hand we distinguish ourselves by the fact that we are in the sweet spot and therefore enjoy the benefits of lower risk and I doubt we could have purchased only the best land, it would have been a package deal.
AUT have said they are hungry for a suitable acquisitions but I wonder if there is much land left that AUT can purchase in the sweet spot?


----------



## suhm (3 June 2011)

5100 of the 15600 net acres was recently purchased at similair rates to the marathon transactionaction for 120m USD unless the other 10500 net acres is instead worth substantially more i.e. the 1bn+ ausd in extra market cap, unlikely given they are in the same area something is missing here.

Hillcorp is also the operator so should have a larger margin than aut, if the mistake is that AUT's acreage is that much better it should raise capital again and pre-empt the marathon bid.


----------



## skc (3 June 2011)

bennywizard said:


> Regarding the newspaper article....
> "the quality of Aurora's shared acreage is superior to that of the total ground acquired by Marathon. But at face value Aurora has either overshot the platform, or we have a rare case of private equity selling far too cheaply"
> 
> The important thing that needs to be emphasized is that Marathon acquired a lot of land of varying degrees of quality, on average of course they paid less than the prime land that AUT holds.  Its crazy to average it all out and then value AUT accordingly, when AUT clearly has prime land.  I do think Marathon have pulled off a great deal though and wish AUT could have had a slice of some of it. On the other hand we distinguish ourselves by the fact that we are in the sweet spot and therefore enjoy the benefits of lower risk and I doubt we could have purchased only the best land, it would have been a package deal.
> AUT have said they are hungry for a suitable acquisitions but I wonder if there is much land left that AUT can purchase in the sweet spot?




OK I think I now understand...

Marathon bought essentailly 7000 boepd at $3.5B. AUT has 2000 boepd. If you take that ratio than AUT is valued at ~$1B based on the deal.

Now AUT is at market cap of $1.4B which is only ~40% premium - and one can quite easily explain that based on them being in the sweet spot etc. Makes a lot more sense than being 3 or 4x over on a per acre basis.

The chart is looking like a good gap close. Will square my short then... :


----------



## trader8888 (4 June 2011)

skc said:


> OK I think I now understand...
> 
> Marathon bought essentailly 7000 boepd at $3.5B. AUT has 2000 boepd. If you take that ratio than AUT is valued at ~$1B based on the deal.
> 
> ...




A few key points from the GMP report - This should clear things up SKC

- AEF trading at discount to the Marathon metrics on a proven reserve basis:-

Given that there has been over 40 wells drilled into the Sugarkane Field with consistent results that are ahead of expectations we believe that the best way to value this is based on reserves. Aurora is currently trading at just under $28.00/boe for potential proven reserves at the end of 2011, which is cheaper than what Marathon is paying for in this deal.

This is also very relevent to the above statement - 

The deal metrics work out to approximately $25,000/acre for the land, $500,000/boe/dfor current production $43,750/boe/d based on the 2016 estimated production and$35.00/boe for the potential proven booked reserves at the end of this year.

-----------------------------------------------------------

- Marathon's EUR assumptions significantly higher than AEF bookings:-

In Marathon's presentation highlighting the deal today they stated potential EUR's on the condensate wells at 965,000 boe, which is 29% higher than the 748,000 boe that Netherland gave AEF in last years reserve report. Also in the volatile oil window Marathon is looking for EUR's of 645,000 boe versus AEF bookings of between 268,000 boe and 467,000 boe. Marathon is forecasting IRR's of at least 50% on the volatile oil wells and north of 100% on the condensate wells and as a result are talking very highly about the new acreage position in Karnes County, which is the heart of the AEF acreage position.

-----------------------------------------------------------

- Other Catalysts for AEF:-

They have now completed 3 of the 4 HiWAY fracs and we expect initial results on these wells within the next few months. Again if these prove successful we could see a material increase in the potential EUR's from the Sugarkane acreage.

-----------------------------------------------------------

In its conference call Marathon was talking about having between 20 - 24 rigs operating in the Eagle Ford trend by the end of 2012, focused primarily on the new acreage. Hilcorp currently have only 6 drilling rigs and 2 frac crews under contract, so this will be a significant ramp-up in activity. Marathon is projecting to spend about US$750 million next year and then roughly US$1 billion per year on the play through to 2016 at which time they forecast from the new Hilcorp assets to reach 80,000 boe/d.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Valuation:-

Based on the NSAI type curves and using the GMP price deck, we estimate the NPVs per well range in value from $1.2 million to $13.4 million based on the various type curves. With an inventory of ~900 (190 net) locations this
generates total value of $1.9 billion or $4.59 per share.


----------



## estseon (4 June 2011)

skc said:


> Can you offer any comments to the point he raised?




test this theory:

A company that owns acreage but does not have the wherewithal to produce the HCs likely to be in formations at depth in that acreage will be valued on the realisable value of the undeveloped acreage.

A company that owns acreage but does have the wherewithal to produce the HCs and turn them into cash, whether through contractual relationships or though using its own resources, will be valued on the basis of recoverable reserves.

As AUT is in the process of monetising the value of the reserves, it is valued by the market by reference to that valuation. 

Two years ago, before the company had provided any evidence that it could monetise the reserves, it was valued at a fraction of the current amount even though it had then a higher net acreage.


----------



## skc (4 June 2011)

trader8888 said:


> - AEF trading at discount to the Marathon metrics on a proven reserve basis:-
> - Marathon's EUR assumptions significantly higher than AEF bookings:-
> - Other Catalysts for AEF:-
> 
> ...






estseon said:


> Two years ago, before the company had provided any evidence that it could monetise the reserves, it was valued at a fraction of the current amount even though it had then a higher net acreage.




Thank you to you both. Good logical arguments grounded in facts and numbers.


----------



## estseon (5 June 2011)

skc said:


> Thank you to you both. Good logical arguments grounded in facts and numbers.




skc

There is another point and that is that the leases are depreciating assets and need to be held by production. AUT is on course to do just that but Hilcorp had a lot of other acreage scattered around and it is possible that it did not itself have the wherewithal to drill in those other acreages, familiarise itself with the different formation characteristics and successfully hold those other leases by production.

Agentm has been recently mentioning that a number of O&G companies are struggling to drill to hold their acreage.

I didn't invest in AUT pre-Hilcorp for precisely that reason - I couldn't see how the company could secure and monetise its significant acreage. It was only once Hilcorp had proved that it could fracc and produce from the TCEI drilled wells that I bought in - February 2010.


----------



## Magic Man (6 June 2011)

What is going on with this today, Started well then big drops in price, recovers a little and then another big drop in price, The Marker depth has again turned around to the poor side since the recent run. Consolidation or is the shine wearing off?


----------



## poverty (6 June 2011)

Magic Man said:


> What is going on with this today, Started well then big drops in price, recovers a little and then another big drop in price, The Marker depth has again turned around to the poor side since the recent run. Consolidation or is the shine wearing off?




If some buyers showed up it could easily take off again here, not many sellers on my screen they must all be above 3.55..


----------



## Sdajii (6 June 2011)

If you could see an hour into the future you'd have done pretty well on AUT today!

In my amateurish opinion, it seems pretty easy to see AUT quickly moving in either direction in the immediate future. Medium to long term I think the fundamentals will push us up, but it seems like there is trouble finding a comfortable price to sit at for now.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (6 June 2011)

http://money.msn.com/money-video/default.aspx?vid=ea1fb203-c7a3-42a1-b25e-5262d63a2bbd


----------



## Sdajii (6 June 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> http://money.msn.com/money-video/default.aspx?vid=ea1fb203-c7a3-42a1-b25e-5262d63a2bbd




I'll admit there happens to be some decent information in all that hype, but I can't help but be disturbed to see the format in which people are increasingly wanting their information delivered in. I can't help but be reminded of the film "Idiocracy". Nothing solid to back the claims up... but he is using fierce body language and vocal tone, so I suppose it's all reliable information and advice.

I hope enough people keep a sufficient demand for calm, rational, thoughtful, logical discussion based on demonstrable facts and methodology.


----------



## poverty (7 June 2011)

Falling price of oil starting putting a downer on the sp this week perhaps?


----------



## Billyb (7 June 2011)

poverty said:


> Falling price of oil starting putting a downer on the sp this week perhaps?




Spooked market I'd day.


----------



## estseon (10 June 2011)

Euroz speculative allocation of the MRO $3.5bn:

"...we assess that a large portion (circa 100k acres) of the Hilcorp acres lie within the ‘dead-oil’ zone (ie requiring artificial lift and corresponding high rates of decline and low EURs) or dry gas window (as per map above)...We highlight recent the CNOOC-Chesapeake and Reliance deals for similar areas, where-by prices paid were in the order of US$10k/acre blended average. Highlighting Marathon’s comments from the conference call regarding acreage quality, we assess that US$5k/acre was likely applied to the aforementioned 100k acres. Thus US$400-500m would apply to this portion, leaving US$3Bn applied to the residual.

This would underpin circa US$75k/acre for the net 40k acres. This would constitute an EV of US$1.2Bn for AUT’s 15.7k acres on this basis."


----------



## dashwood (15 June 2011)

Looks like the software is driving the market - crazy trades at the moment. Any thoughts? PS where did $#.##5 come from?


----------



## alexc2005 (16 June 2011)

This is exactly why i was thinking of bailing.

Hard to know that it was going to crash so hard though, i guess the rapid growth was unsustainable.

Would have been good to take profits at 3.70 and buy back in now.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.


----------



## Sdajii (16 June 2011)

It's not just AUT though, all the oilers are getting knocked around lately, and if you look at where we were immediately before that brief jump up to $3.71, where we are now doesn't look that bad. Obviously the big picture is still brilliant; we're 50% higher than we were six months ago and more than 400% higher than a year ago. Even in recent history we're looking good; our share price is currently around 20% higher than it was a month ago. That isn't too tragic.

I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we went back to $2.50-2.60 from here, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we topped $4 in the near future and much more in the next six months. It's hard to weigh all the negative sentiment lately against the possibility of tighter well spacing, improved fracs, and the inevitable increase in production. As long as the price of oil doesn't severely crash we're fundamentally looking great, even if the market gets the spooks for a while.

Having said that, I took AUT profit for the first time today - $3.17 this morning. Not much, only about 15% of my holding. AUT has done so well for me it's the bulk of my portfolio and it seemed silly to have about three quarters of my eggs in a single basket.


----------



## Assasin (16 June 2011)

We all need to remember that every day we endure this ordinary market conditions, AUT continues to de-risk and add value.
Regrettably, I too sold a small portion of my holding after 4 years of holding so I free carry a nice parcel but remain absolutely impressed with how management continue to progress what was a small explorer to a very reasonable producer with a great future.
Not many of the other small cap oilers ( which I also hold ) can say that.
Cheers.


----------



## bbker (16 June 2011)

Sdaji,
I doubt it will go to $2.50 or 2.60. (you never know!)   There's too much value for buyers to let it drop that far. And with its future looking secure and schedule on track it's hard not to see the SP go up with the value.

The only thing as you mentioned is the rate at which the SP went up in such a small time. But still...


----------



## bbker (16 June 2011)

So much for that but what a hell of a day. 

I might have to eat my words. Hope not!


----------



## trader8888 (16 June 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> This is exactly why i was thinking of bailing.
> 
> Hard to know that it was going to crash so hard though, i guess the rapid growth was unsustainable.
> 
> ...




The whole market is crashing, AUT however is positive for the last month, just shows you how strong this stock is.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 June 2011)

Unfortunately AUT relies on a strong US market and thus a big drop in the dow and we fall.... Same as the other oilers. Hopefully we gain some momentum soon, however, the US is a sick dog waiting to get the final bullet. I hope to get out before the gun is fired.


----------



## estseon (18 June 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Unfortunately AUT relies on a strong US market and thus a big drop in the dow and we fall.... Same as the other oilers. Hopefully we gain some momentum soon, however, the US is a sick dog waiting to get the final bullet. I hope to get out before the gun is fired.




Demand for many forms of goods and services can collapse but energy has quite a high base demand. Besides which, 80% of the revenues come from liquids that can be sold on other markets and Marathon is obviously quite bullish.


----------



## dashwood (18 June 2011)

Just hope the woes of Cushing don't impinge on Aut price progression

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+decline+hits+Alberta+crude/4968982/story.html


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (22 June 2011)

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=108179

Found this general information article about the EFS on HC forums. A nice read for those that aren't too familiar.


----------



## martyfar (24 June 2011)

AUT up to $3.63 on the TSX last evening,  so far today it hit a high on the ASX of $3.51 no news relased to the market to account for the increase in share price.  The other Australian small cap oilers EKA, SEA,TXN not showing any upward movement. When AUT reached a high of $3.71 a couple of weeks ago when Marathon aquired Hilcorp's share of the Eagleford it was suggested that the increase in AUT's SP was due to "takeover speculation",   perehaps the spike today (6.2%) represents  normal market trading fluctuations  ??  or perhaps it represents a "seepage" of information that the general market is not aware of at this point .....


----------



## Sdajii (24 June 2011)

I'm no brilliant technical analyst, but to me it looks like we're seeing a return to the recent highs. There was the marathon announcement, we shot up to $3.71, then had a retrace back to where we were shortly before then, and now that has settled out we're going back up to closer to where the peak was (and hey, maybe we'll even break beyond $3.70 and go higher again... fingers crossed). We're still a fair way short of our recent peak, so I don't think this is caused by any leaked news of tightened well spacings or anything, we're just sorting out the fluctuations caused by the announcement a few weeks ago.

If there has been some leaked news about something pleasant, well, that's wonderful, 'cause I'm holding lots  I don't think it's that good... yet  Shame I took a bit of profit recently, but fortunately I didn't sell much, and I bought some back after we broke $3.20 (just hours after selling at $3.17... oops!), expecting something like this to happen, and fortunately for me it did.

I'm surprised to see today's movement after the strategic reserves release. I'm also a bit surprised at the lack of discussion about Obama's move to release oil (unless there's a thread on it that I've missed). This release might mean some good buying opportunities over the next couple of months - he can't keep on using up strategic reserves forever, but in the mean time there should be a drop in oil price. You know global supply is tight if the reserves are being utilised, and once that supply is stopped the POO should increase.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (24 June 2011)

He didn't release much oil at all, very tiny amount vs what is actually being produced... I see the nymex oil bounced back...


----------



## chand (24 June 2011)

Hi,

The recent jump in price may be due to success of Hi way frac which they were planning on four wells! As this can result in 25% extra oil produced, it will be a big boost to overall economics of the wells.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (24 June 2011)

I was also extremely surprised to see the stock jump so much today given the release of the SPR. Oil is expected to fall further in the coming days for at least a month, so I was literally  looking at the price.

Very good of course, but the question is, where is it going from here?


----------



## Kremmen (30 June 2011)

Who lit a fire under AUT today? Opened at $3.32, now trading $3.56, having hit $3.57.

Maybe some index funds need to rebalance before EOFY?


----------



## alexc2005 (30 June 2011)

Not sure what the deal is but im not complaining.

Strong close at 3.50, now lets see what tomorrow holds!


----------



## martyfar (30 June 2011)

Yeah great day... plenty more ta run in this litle gem IMO, missin Condog's informative posts ...anyone know whats happened to his esteemed self ???


----------



## tradefill (3 July 2011)

martyfar said:


> Yeah great day... plenty more ta run in this litle gem IMO, missin Condog's informative posts ...anyone know whats happened to his esteemed self ???




from what i can see his last post was over a month ago, the forums definitely missing his insights.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (3 July 2011)

As you guys probably know. Euroz has a new target of $5.29 after their latest field trip to the year... some people have quoted a $8 AUT stock price if oil stays and the US doesn't dive... cheers.


Read here:
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1647-28161248/EurozSecuritiesLimited


----------



## Sharejon (3 July 2011)

As an attempt to get an estimation of 6 month average flow rates, I used the production averages of Turnbull 3 (200 days), Patino (155 days) and May (144 days) wells.

I chose these 3 because they were the closest functioning wells which had roughly been onto production for 6 months (N.B. I used daily flow rates to average it out).

I used a 12:1 gas to condensate ratio as it more accurately scales the price of gas with the price of oil (6:1 exaggerates the sales potential of gas).

These figures came out to a 6 month average of 630 boep/d (I didn't use Rancho Grande, Morgon or Turnbull 4 because they were at the upper end of the production averages, nor did I use Kowalik or Turnbull 2 because they were on the lower end due to experienced drilling/fraccing problems).

If a constant-rate drilling program is assumed then the average age of the 2012 wells come December 2012, will be 6 months.

(information from the March Quarterly production sheet)

With Marathon estimated to be drilling 120 new wells next year, at an average working interest of 21% (15760 net acres divided by 78400 gross acres), this becomes 25.2 net wells to AUT.

25.2 (net wells) * 365 (days) * 630 (daily production) * 0.75 (royalties) * $90 (oil price) 

= $391 million revenue from 2012 wells

25.2 * $7.5 million (capital cost for next year is probably just under 7.5 million, operating cost $20,000 per month)

= $189 million expenses (mainly capital) from 2012 wells.

That's already $202 million profit before tax from ONLY the 2012 wells, and almost the entire expenses column (95%) are one-off capital payments for the well.

Add in roughly $120 million revenue from the 2011 wells (in which the capital expenses were paid in this calendar year) and you'll see that AUT's cashflow will start to become incredible come 2012 and onwards.

These are just my figures I thought I'd share with you, happy to answer any questions.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (15 July 2011)

While not AUT specific but this is very interesting.... BHP has bought Petrohawk..

http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/bhp-buys-petrohawk-energy/story-e6frfkur-1226095082145


----------



## Sdajii (18 July 2011)

Progress report finally out! Looks brilliant.

Check out the 30 day results for the HiWay wells compared to the old frac method. Early days, but it's a massive improvement, not to mention using half the water and additives.

373 and 450 for the old style wells
531 and 558 for the HiWay wells side by side with the above...

...that's a 32% improvement in production! Early days, but it looks fantastic!


----------



## dashwood (18 July 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Progress report finally out! Looks brilliant.
> 
> Check out the 30 day results for the HiWay wells compared to the old frac method. Early days, but it's a massive improvement, not to mention using half the water and additives.
> 
> ...




A very professional report and agreed looks very encouraging..still holding but thread very quiet!


----------



## Sdajii (21 July 2011)

Could we be seeing a triangle forming? What do people think?


----------



## tech/a (21 July 2011)

Technically triangles should have distinct swings.
Personally I like volume to be seen around the swings.
This un fortunatley is in my view a poor example.
The chart at this point gives no hint of coming out of consolidation.


----------



## Sdajii (21 July 2011)

Thank you


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 July 2011)

Don't personally believe in technical stuff and past share prices all too much. I see AUT possibly trending upwards once the debt ceiling has been lifted etc... it is holding a lot of things back unfortunately.


----------



## Sharejon (28 July 2011)

The quarterly is out.

I'm only on page 2 so far, but this has made it a very very very price sensitive report.

The production is one thing (and expected considering how the amount of wells brought onto production), but what really caught my eye is this

"The company now holds a net position of 16,230 acres..... within four AMI's"

Before this announcement the following acreage distribution for AUT was:

Total Net: 15760 acres.

Longhorn - 8600
Sugarloaf - 3700
Ipanema - 1700
Excelsior - 1760

After this announcement there is now 16320 acres.

Longhorn - 9020
Sugarloaf - 3700
Ipanema - 1670
Excelsior - 1840

The best news of all is that Longhorn has experienced the largest increase. I rate this the best AMI. (The Sugarloaf would be next, however the Sugarloaf has a mixture of beastly wells e.g. Morgan, Rancho Grande and not so good wells e.g. May, Luna).

Turnbull 4H has produced at a rate of 938 boep/d for this quarter, despite being (now) 6 months old.

The well has paid off the costs of drilling + a whole lot more profit already, just 6 months after being brought onto production.

When you extrapolate that 2500 boep/d before royalties was reported to be 1850 boep/d after royalties, the July 20 production rate of 2767 boep/d is calculated to be roughly 2050 boep/d.

On a non-cross promoting note, I'm interested to see if EKA state what AUT have about the consolidation/acquisition of land within the 4 AMI's. I know the Sugarloaf area didn't 'gain' any land for AUT, however the Ipanema, Excelsior and Longhorn area's were affected (very positively for AUT).

With what I said before about Longhorn being 'the best AMI in my opinion', that was purely based on production figures so far. 

There are too many unknowns (with each particular well) to conclude if one area is better than the other (although Sugarloaf/Longhorn look to be the best so far).

It'll be very interesting to see if any more 'acreage trades' occur. The more acreage (across the 4 AMI's) attributable to AUT the better.


----------



## jancha (2 August 2011)

Surprising to see there's no comments from Agentm or Condog of late on any threads of AUT TXN EKA ect. Any ideas as to why?


----------



## Assasin (2 August 2011)

jancha said:


> Surprising to see there's no comments from Agentm or Condog of late on any threads of AUT TXN EKA ect. Any ideas as to why?




Far for me to speak on behalf of them, but they have spent a bit of time on those threads over at HC. Perhaps it's holiday time, Condog has been away.
With the way the market has been over the past 3 months, I think everyone has been a bit quite. Sure different to this time last year. I wonder if it's because AUT is now so de-risked everyone is just happy holding and are concentrating on finding the next AUT. Any tips?


----------



## Sdajii (2 August 2011)

I think you're right, Assassin, although there are probably also a lot of people who have been sitting around waiting to take profit, and now selling out to lock them in since the massive upwards trend has ended for now. Like you say a lot of them will be off looking for the next ten bagger, which AUT probably won't be, at least in the same timeframe it was last time. I think there is still probably a fair bit more upside than a lot of people give it credit for with the chalks, decreased spacings, etc. Gone are the times when the results of a single well would cause big price fluctuations. AUT is not what it was a year or two ago, and so it appeals to a different demographic.

I think at the moment we're probably seeing a a transition. The big risk takers moving out and the longer term investors wanting something safer moving in. Once that is more complete and AUT is more tightly held we'll probably see the price move higher. People generally don't like risk and when AUT is held by a different demographic it will probably be a good thing. At the moment there are still heaps of people sitting on big profits waiting for their 12 months to pass by, but there will be fewer and fewer of those left over the next few months. I think right now is probably a great time to buy AUT if you're the kind of person wanting a long term investment, and it's probably worth waiting a while if you want to take profit (because you're competing with so many with the same idea at the moment), unless you're just dying to grab another 10 bagger and you're pretty sure about something else.


----------



## Assasin (2 August 2011)

Yeah, that's a good post Sdajii,
It's also difficult to get used to being a top 200 stock and having to put up with there swings and slides like today. I was expecting a nice bounce today but saw even the big boys (BHP etc) were down.
I agree with what you say, I too have taken out 2 times my initial outlay and freecarry my holding and very happy to hold for another 12 months, where I hope to be rewarded again.
AUT sure has been a game changer for me.

Holding, AUT, EKA, TXN, HOG, GGP, MHM, FAR.


----------



## Billyb (7 August 2011)

Assasin said:


> Yeah, that's a good post Sdajii,
> It's also difficult to get used to being a top 200 stock and having to put up with there swings and slides like today. I was expecting a nice bounce today but saw even the big boys (BHP etc) were down.
> I agree with what you say, I too have taken out 2 times my initial outlay and freecarry my holding and very happy to hold for another 12 months, where I hope to be rewarded again.
> AUT sure has been a game changer for me.
> ...




With the upcoming probable recession in the US, it's likely oil prices will fall - right? Anyone have any theories on how this should affect AUT and other oil stocks?


----------



## nioka (7 August 2011)

Billyb said:


> With the upcoming probable recession in the US, it's likely oil prices will fall - right? Anyone have any theories on how this should affect AUT and other oil stocks?




Oil stocks are a big question mark. Particularly AUT. I have done well with AUT having invested in them during the last crash. At that time they were an explorer having run short of funds and also not having good drilling results.

This time it is different. AUT is now a producer with income and with sufficient cash to get through this period.

The big question is going to be the price of oil. Included in that is also the peak oil situation. Have we reached "peak oil". I suggest we are about to finds out. On a world wide basis are we going to cut back on oil usage?. I suggest probably not. With oil being priced on a supply and demand basis then I can see little change. Certainly not a crash in oil prices. India and China will probably still increase their oil consumption.

Once we pass the lemming rush point and margin borrowers get over the margin call point then we should see what we are in for.


----------



## poverty (7 August 2011)

nioka said:


> With oil being priced on a supply and demand basis then I can see little change. Certainly not a crash in oil prices.




From memory it only took a relatively small loss of oil demand in the GFC for oil price to plumet from $150 to under $40?


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2011)

poverty said:


> From memory it only took a relatively small loss of oil demand in the GFC for oil price to plumet from $150 to under $40?




Yep, and it makes a lot of sense. If you suddenly have just a tiny bit more supply that the total demand and enough sellers are going to sell regardless of price, prices crash, whatever the product or service. With oil though, when it becomes cheap a lot of people switch to it from other energy sources, and some proders (well, OPEC mainly will cut back supply to prevent a massive crash.

Oil is still over $80 per barrel. That's still pretty expensive even by the last few years' standards. I doubt it will fall as much as it did in 2008 even if things get similarly ugly, which is very possible in my opinion. I see oil getting extremely volatile but counting higher, and the economy overall getting really nasty. Scarey times ahead, but when the smoke clears I think a company like AUT will be standing pretty. Or maybe we'll get lucky and see a  slow, stable recovery... harder too see!


----------



## PinguPingu (14 August 2011)

I bought a little more AUT around $2.75 last week, although I was hesitant as AUT is now just under 30% of my entire portfolio, however I think global demand for oil will stay strong and these guys seem to be great at getting it out of the ground.

CBA has a buy rating for AUT in it's latest Research Insights
 (12month price target of $3.70)

In case anyone is interested in what they're saying:


----------



## alexc2005 (15 August 2011)

Probably a smart thing to top up.

I was watching it hit $2.54 on tuesday and biting my tounge trying to decide whether to top up.

But alas, i pussied out because i was pretty afraid of losing it all.

Results come out today i think- Lets see this baby skyrocket!!


----------



## Assasin (15 August 2011)

Well then you will love this morning's announcement, 22% increase in production since last month.
Difficult to find a reason to sell this one at this stage.


----------



## HEA815 (6 September 2011)

Not alot being posted on this thread anymore. Obviously the world and AUT have gone sour over the past weeks. I've got little news or analysis to add but am interested if anyone is still following, or if Condog has surfaced?


----------



## PinguPingu (6 September 2011)

I think Aurora is still chugging along as usual but the global economic situation, especially  a weaker oil price seems to be hitting Aurora and other energy stocks.


----------



## Assasin (6 September 2011)

Hi guys, 
Please read company announcements of recent times and I'm sure you will be impressed. AUT has been value adding in a huge way in the past few months and has a huge next 6 months in front of it. Marathon plan to even expand the drilling program and this years drilling target is well on schedule.
IMO, at current levels, AUT represents great value for the next 12 months providing the world economy doesn't fall over.
To keep up day to day, unfortunately for ASF members, HC has the bulk of the experience posting. Wish we could get it back here.
Cheers


----------



## estseon (20 September 2011)

I posted this on HC:

********************************************************************
MRO is pulling in additional rigs and Hilcorp is currently ahead of schedule (for drilling to hold by production). We've seen the HiWay fracc experiment and it is questionable whether the pairings held more acreage than single wells. So, it is quite possible that some experimentation will take place.

There is also the mystery of Esse Smith B, which is clearly in Excelsior (see AUT (good oil conference) presentation slide 17) but is producing at Sugarloaf rates. It is very close to Esse Smith A (we've not seen figures for that). We can't rule out that it is an experimental well in a shallower part of the pay interval. This is just speculation. What is not speculation is the 30 day result reported or that it is an Excelsior well.

Chapman Schroeder, which must extend into other Hilcorp acreage, is comparable to Esse Smith B and Sugarloaf wells also. Between them are the two Henke wells, which were totally unexceptional.

So have Esse Smith B and Chapman Schroeder been drilled in a shallower part of the interval? If they have, and the results can be replicated over the whole Excelsior acreage, we could see an upgrade in the valuation of that acreage.

Re holding of shallower parts of the pay interval by drilling the lower part of the interval: MRO has made reference to the Buda and to the Edwards (Aug 30, slide 18) - upside potential, other stacked pay zones. Just as the Austin chalk overlays the EFS, so the Buda underlays it and the Edwards is deeper. Any thoughts?
**********************************************************************

There has been conjecture that MRO will be less communicative than was/is Hilcorp. That does not make logical sense as MRO is a listed company embarking on a venture that it has paid a lot of money for and which seems to have been related to its recent hiving off of downstream business. It has trumpeted the value of the investment in the "sweet spot" and it will be under pressure to deliver. Hilcorp is a private company.

The main risk at the moment seems to be the Eurozone. The solution would appear to be for the Eurozone states to form a fiscal unity (1 step closer to forming a federation) but nobody seems to have questioned whether or not the national governments have the powers to do that. It would be a significant ceding of sovereignty and many of the national governments may have to go to their electorates to obtain the powers to do that. Even supposing  that they are granted the powers, it will take months.

So, I think that we are in for a turbulent time and the general market concerns will cloud the progress being achieved in Texas.


----------



## alexc2005 (3 October 2011)

Poor AUT, has definitely copped a hiding over the past few weeks.

AUT used to be the share that was keeping my portfolio alive with all this market downturn, now its down there with the rest.

Announcement out today with an impressive drilling schedule for the next 12months.

Hopefully see a turn in the price to follow suit.

Got to be a bargain at the $2.20 price it's trading at today.


----------



## mattyhammer (6 October 2011)

Good day today! Up 11%.


----------



## bennywizard (10 October 2011)

*Lots of positives for AUT*
Oil price stabilizing
AUD under parity
Continued good drilling results and flows
Reserves upgrade
Ramp up of drilling planned for next year
Euroz valuation upped to $5.22
Funding in place for drilling for entire 2012
Reduced risk of dilution as we should not need to raise capital, unless there is a grate acquisition opportunity

All this should provide some resilience against potential world disasters or failing economies, even if oil drops to uneconomic levels, it will bounce back and AUT has the 
the ability to weather storms in 2012 if needed.


----------



## alexc2005 (20 October 2011)

Managed to sell out of this on monday @ 2.95.

Having only put in a sell for 2.90 i was very happy with this (although, seems a shame when i could have sold at 3.60 ).

Anyway, i plan to re-enter when there is a clear indication of direction in the stock. 

Had to lock in some profits for myself.

First ever closed trade  yay.


----------



## Sdajii (26 October 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Managed to sell out of this on monday @ 2.95.
> 
> Having only put in a sell for 2.90 i was very happy with this (although, seems a shame when i could have sold at 3.60 ).
> 
> ...




Well done 

I sold almost half of mine at $2.79 when the big jitters started recently, expecting things to get a lot worse, planning to then buy and ride it back up. I watched the market tumble and AUT specifically went down to $2.15 or so, I felt pretty clever. I watched in surprise as AUT climbed back up to $2.65, missed the buying opportunity, figured it would drop back down, sold about half of what I had left, then watched it flirt with $3. Oops! Other than buying back in when it got low the plan worked really well!

At least I've made a good profit along the way. I think my average buy is around 80c. I have less optimism about Europe than the majority of the market seems to, so I'm not entirely uncomfortable sitting with a fair bit of cash at the moment. Great time to sell AUT (and most things) in my opinion. The rally of optimism seems to have run its course, and even if the news in Europe is as good as we can realistically expect, it seems to have mostly been factored in already, so the upside isn't that great. If the painful reality hits, which I see as more likely, the downside is far more extreme. Doesn't seem like a good situation of risk vs. reward to me at the moment.


----------



## trader8888 (28 October 2011)

Sdajii said:


> Well done
> 
> I sold almost half of mine at $2.79 when the big jitters started recently, expecting things to get a lot worse, planning to then buy and ride it back up. I watched the market tumble and AUT specifically went down to $2.15 or so, I felt pretty clever. I watched in surprise as AUT climbed back up to $2.65, missed the buying opportunity, figured it would drop back down, sold about half of what I had left, then watched it flirt with $3. Oops! Other than buying back in when it got low the plan worked really well!
> 
> At least I've made a good profit along the way. I think my average buy is around 80c. I have less optimism about Europe than the majority of the market seems to, so I'm not entirely uncomfortable sitting with a fair bit of cash at the moment. Great time to sell AUT (and most things) in my opinion. The rally of optimism seems to have run its course, and even if the news in Europe is as good as we can realistically expect, it seems to have mostly been factored in already, so the upside isn't that great. If the painful reality hits, which I see as more likely, the downside is far more extreme. Doesn't seem like a good situation of risk vs. reward to me at the moment.





sdaji

"Great time to sell AUT (and most things) in my opinion" i am exactly the opposite of you, ive been buying up big recently especially TXN and AUT and made a motza in the last few weeks, as some of the data i could see coming out of the US about a month ago did'nt at all point to a recession and then just yesterday we see US GDP come in at 2.5% which is still pretty slow but no where near a recssion, and china GDP at %9 odd a couple of weeks back. While major economies are still growing and going gangbusters in china's case, oil supply will be tight and prices will likely remain high. I work in an industry that gives you a good indication on how the economy is (in AUS), and we are flat out at the moment and have been for 6 months now. 3 tanks of diesel a week  good thing im not buying.

AUT is the fastest growing stock listed on the XEJ with regards to Q on Q revenue and production growth.


----------



## Sdajii (31 October 2011)

I don't claim to be any sort of expert and I could be entirely wrong, but what I see is a situation where everyone was panicking about Greece/Euroland, then suddenly everyone believing all is fine (?? ??? ??) and a rally ensuing. Sure, that may continue for a short while. Sure, some things might look great, and I think AUT's fundamental situation would have it looking super pretty in a happy economic background, and in the short term things might seem great, but the attempts to keep Europe collapsing really seem pretty feeble, and in the medium term I can't see anything but big trouble. It looks to me like the band aid solutions are just going to delay the inevitable (and this is hardly a view I hold alone, in fact, the above probably sounds pretty heavily cliche).

You may be right, I may be wrong, and I'm not confident enough to have completely sold out - I've hedged my bets and still hold a bit, including a fair chunk (at least by my standards) of AUT.

If the Euroland house of cards does collapse (and surely no one could possibly say that is guaranteed not to happen), it won't be pretty, and assuming the whole world doesn't collapse into absolute chaos, that will be a great time to buy back in. I hope you're right and Europe either manages to pull it off or that any flow on trouble is minimal. I think that's a bit optimistic, but would be glad to be proven wrong


----------



## PinguPingu (8 November 2011)

Anyone know why AUT's surged past $3.00 in the last week or two? Frustrated now I sold out at there ($3) but you can never tell what's going to happen macro especially. It seriously still feels like there's something looming just around the corner but so far we're holding steady..


----------



## trader8888 (8 November 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> Anyone know why AUT's surged past $3.00 in the last week or two? Frustrated now I sold out at there ($3) but you can never tell what's going to happen macro especially. It seriously still feels like there's something looming just around the corner but so far we're holding steady..




I think the biggest factor is AUT catching up to fair value, its been so cheap and still is. Also strength in WTI is helping alot. Impressive drilling sceduale next year.


----------



## trader8888 (8 November 2011)

I have gone through the recent quarterly and have taken the production data from wells with the longest time of production and have calculated the total BOE the well has produced, i have also calculated the total revenue earnt from that given well. I have excluded excelsior as the data is very early. One thing i should add, is that AUT are very transparent with their production numbers, alot of energy companys could learn from this.

Key Parameters - 
Gas conversion ratio - 6:1
Oil Price - $85 a bbl

(Days) - Total number of days the well has produced

(%) - represents the percentage paid off on a well cost of $7.5 million.

AMI - 

Sugarloaf -

WELL........TOTAL (BOE).....DAYS.....REVENUE($M's)....(%)

Weston......311,844.........581......$26.5............353
Kennedy.....170,190.........587......$14.45...........192
Easley......183,030.........496......$15.55...........207
Morgan......315,549.........452......$26.82...........357
Rancho......316,330.........440......$26.88...........358
May.........164,507.........315......$13.98...........186
Luna........179,988.........314......$15.29...........203
Kowalik.....166,825.........291......$14.18...........189
Urruita.....171,411.........279......$14.56...........194
Direct A....115,140.........239......$9.78............130
Hollman.....131,511.........205......$11.17...........148
Beauring....82,843..........172......$7.04............94
Jordan......62,896..........92.......$5.34............71

Average days on production - 343
Average % well payout - 206 %

Average well brakes even in 206 days or 6.7 months

Longhorn - 

WELL........TOTAL (BOE).....DAYS.....REVENUE($M's)....(%)

T/bull 1H...149,463.........471......$12.70...........169
T/bull 2H...112,401.........299......$9.55............127
T/bull 3H...235,826.........380......$20.04...........267
T/bull 4H...252,616.........277......$21.47...........286
Sienkiewscz.205,440.........245......$17.46...........232
Yosko.......116,414.........159......$9.89............131
Barboza.....130,839.........164......$11.12...........148
Carter S....120,631.........149......$10.25...........136

Average days on production - 268
Average % well payout - 187 %

Average well brakes even in 187 days or 6.14 months

Ipenma - 

WELL........TOTAL (BOE).....DAYS.....REVENUE($M's)....(%)

Patino......194,740.........333......$16.55...........220
Franke......117,790.........281......$10.01...........133
Foster......88,279..........180......$7.50............100

Average days on production - 264
Average % well payout - 151 %

Average well pays out in 151 days or 4.9 months.


These economics look very good to me, with well payback's very low. Its no wonder companys all over the world are scambling to get themsleves some prime EFS acerage and at any cost, so it would seem.

Also some very good points have come out of the conference call -

- Marathon looking to exploit all drilling techniques including HI-Way fracs.

- More horizontals to be drilled in the chalk to maximise drainage, a view also held by marathon.

- Shallower drilling in the EFS to take place after HBP drilling is complete.

- Pilot programmes to be started once HBP drilling is finished testing either 40,50 or 60 acre spaccings. This activity has already started on the trend, Rosetta Resources is just one company currently trialing.



This should'nt be taken as investment advice.


----------



## poverty (8 November 2011)

As you'd know Trader there are also people claiming AUT are selling their oil at a premium price as LLS.  If true it would be a massive re-evaluation of their revenues.


----------



## bennywizard (8 November 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> Anyone know why AUT's surged past $3.00 in the last week or two? Frustrated now I sold out at there ($3) but you can never tell what's going to happen macro especially. It seriously still feels like there's something looming just around the corner but so far we're holding steady..




I agree with trader, but also add the price of oil which has recovered nicely currently $95 Barrel and the AUD being back to just over parity.
If oil stays at these levels or climbs and the AUD doesn't climb too high I am confident of $4 by end 2010. I could be very wrong but that's my feeling.
Macro factors are the only thing that I see getting in the way, and unfortunately its too hard to predict those.


----------



## alexc2005 (8 November 2011)

I had intended to get back in at 2.76 after selling out at 2.95 but missed my chance because I was preoccupied.

Hopefully it drops back down again soon, if so I will jump aboard and ride the wave!

If not, there are plenty of stocks ready to surge


----------



## Starcraftmazter (8 November 2011)

bennywizard said:


> If oil stays at these levels or climbs and the AUD doesn't climb too high I am confident of $4 by end 2010. I could be very wrong but that's my feeling.




I presume you meant 2011? That is quite a big call to make, given the current situation in Europe.


----------



## Assasin (8 November 2011)

bennywizard said:


> I agree with trader, but also add the price of oil which has recovered nicely currently $95 Barrel and the AUD being back to just over parity.
> If oil stays at these levels or climbs and the AUD doesn't climb too high I am confident of $4 by end 2010. I could be very wrong but that's my feeling.
> Macro factors are the only thing that I see getting in the way, and unfortunately its too hard to predict those.




Yes you would be very wrong there Benny as I think you mean 2011.

As I said on HC, that is huge input Trader, thanks. I see you are only running with the 2 stocks now, is that right?


----------



## trader8888 (8 November 2011)

Poverty, yes i have heard that AUT is selling on the LLS, LLS usually trades around a $15 premium to WTI so the potential increase in NPV's and revenues are massive.

Assasin or is it slick?? LOL. thanks for the wraps, My two biggest holdings are AUT and TXN at the moment also have a small amount in STX and EKA. 

But agree with alot of people here that the european and US debt crisis is very worrying and could easily send the world into a prolonged recession in the coming year if things are not sorted out. With the recent market and oil recovery i am looking to sell risky assets and go into cash and gold. However i wont sell anyomre AUT as there are so many factors that could multiply their reserves and revenue, i also think they are currently trading at a very large discount to NPV.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (9 November 2011)

trader8888 said:


> I also think they are currently trading at a very large discount to NPV.




I see this in just about every stock thread; all this is for a reason, and it won't change overnight "just because".


----------



## alexc2005 (9 November 2011)

AEF up 4%, going to be a good day for AUT. I'm pissed i got out, but nothing wrong with taking a profit in these times.


----------



## trader8888 (9 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I see this in just about every stock thread; all this is for a reason, and it won't change overnight "just because".




I haven't seen you around the AUT thread before, The thing you have to understand is that with AUT the factors that can expotentially increase their NPV through reserves are numerous and unlike most other companies, AUT has the Funding and JV to capitalise on this. Most other companies will have a resource and NPV but the market discounts it because of funding uncertainties, unlikely that they will ever see production or it's just figures on paper and no hard data. What you see is what you get with AUT.


----------



## rcm617 (9 November 2011)

Trader, I cant see in your calculation where you have accounted for royalties. Also I believe $85 for BOE might be a bit high when you use a conversion factor of 6 to 1.


----------



## trader8888 (9 November 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Trader, I cant see in your calculation where you have accounted for royalties. Also I believe $85 for BOE might be a bit high when you use a conversion factor of 6 to 1.




Rcm I have limited time and this graph I made up was in response to someone on HC, just to show the Amount of revenue that these wells produce and how economical they are, not really AUT specific. 

Also IMO $85 per boe is fair, I'm not accounting for NGL stripping, also WTI currently at $97 a bbl and rumors That AUT is selling on the LLS market which trades a $15 premium to WTI, I think $85 is very fair. 

I've noticed that you love to nit pick other people's posts rcm which is very easy, but I am yet to see anything of substance from you??


----------



## rcm617 (9 November 2011)

Sorry if my reply offends, I appreciate the time and effort you and condog put into this stock, but I thought this forum was all about discussing a stock, not just the positives.
Anybody new to this stock might not know that there is a 25% royalty to pay to the landowners and thus invest on the basis of your figures on the payback period.
I'll concede you might be right with the price received, I always like to be conservative with figures when I dont know the full facts.


----------



## bennywizard (9 November 2011)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I presume you meant 2011? That is quite a big call to make, given the current situation in Europe.




Sorry, yes of course 2011  Must be living in the past....
Oil up again today to $97 Barrel and AUT shows a nice rise. With Oil at these levels AUT should be $4+ and I think it will be soon, (that's only a 17% rise from here) Easy for AUT with the end of year reserves that will be 5000, unless of course oil drops which AUT has no control over and then who knows?
The technical analysis of the stock shows its in great shape, for me its not the big issue, its OIL and currency!!! ...and the good thing is that long term at least, Oil seems to be on an upward trend.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (10 November 2011)

trader8888 said:


> I haven't seen you around the AUT thread before




I was in AUT earlier this year, I've been watching it for around half a year, still paying close attention. Since AUT seems to have developed an uptrend over the last month, I am becoming again interested.

I understand your reasoning and I do not disagree - but what I suggest is that there are implicit major assumptions about the price of oil here. I am not speculating much on the price of oil though, so you may well be correct, I simply state that there are significant risks, as I can see the price of oil diving before the end of the year under various circumstances, or perhaps early next year.

To long AUT is to make a big call about the global economy and the near term resolutions of the EMU problems.


----------



## bennywizard (12 November 2011)

Oil up to $99 Barrel, if it stays at around this price $4 should be a piece of cake. fingers crossed


----------



## estseon (20 November 2011)

The (financial) EMU is long dead. The Euro is the endangered species. The 17 nations had perfectly viable economies (ok, perhaps not Greece) when they created the Euro and there is no reason to believe that they will not survive a retreat from the currency back into their own, former currencies.

The European banks are already starting to provide against Greek debt and they're not collapsing.

I don't see a collapse in global demand for oil. Economic activity certainly raises demand but don't forget China, India and other rising economies, which are still expanding and providing increased demand. The Saudis, who previously provided the production adjustment to stabilise prices, are using increasing amounts themselves for power generation - power for desalination plants and power for their infant mining industry.

Marathon has just demerged itself and has bet a significant slice of its future on this sweet spot in the EFS and BHP Billiton has invested heavily - 3x as much. The story convinced the banks that recently granted AUT is $300million facility.

There could well be price volatility but the price of oil has tried to tank several times over the last 12 months and it continues to rebound.

On the plus side, AUT's production will escalate. They are drilling Longhorn, which is more productive than Excelsior, and AUT has a WI more than 3x that is has in Excelsior.

Certainly there are significant risks and there is no telling what the buffoons in continental Europe will do next. But it is coming under control. Italy now has some leadership and the market has already absorbed the bad news relating to Greece. Portugal needs help and Ireland is receiving it (from the UK). There's nothing wrong with Ireland's economy. Nor is there much wrong with Spain's.

That's my view, any way.



Starcraftmazter said:


> I was in AUT earlier this year, I've been watching it for around half a year, still paying close attention. Since AUT seems to have developed an uptrend over the last month, I am becoming again interested.
> 
> I understand your reasoning and I do not disagree - but what I suggest is that there are implicit major assumptions about the price of oil here. I am not speculating much on the price of oil though, so you may well be correct, I simply state that there are significant risks, as I can see the price of oil diving before the end of the year under various circumstances, or perhaps early next year.
> 
> To long AUT is to make a big call about the global economy and the near term resolutions of the EMU problems.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (21 November 2011)

estseon said:


> Certainly there are significant risks and there is no telling what the buffoons in continental Europe will do next. *But it is coming under control.*




The contagion is spreading quickly, and bond yields are spiraling out of control. Italy is basically insolvent now. Perhaps most importantly, nothing at all has actually been fixed or even addressed. I cannot understand how you or anyone can possibly proclaim it is "coming under control".

The price of oil as always is driven by speculators and derivatives. Sure it is fairly good and stable now, but that can literally change overnight.


Like always there is risk.


----------



## estseon (27 November 2011)

Italy is far from insolvent. Its main problems derive from an inability to form a government. It now has one of sorts. Even apart from its substantial economy, it has enormous gas & oil reserves that have been barely tapped. Further, though the state has a high level of debt the private sector does not. But unless they do something about their lack of growth, tax evasion and the inability of its government to enforce even minor changes in policy, there is no confidence that the debt will ever be paid back.  There is a lot of debt to be rolled over in the next 12 months and the market has no appetite for it.

I posted before the market stuck two fingers up at Germany's auction. The market has clearly had enough. It cannot evaluate the risk attaching to any of the Eurozone sovereign debt and so it won't buy. It was only one, small auction but the Eurozone states might be facing an investors' strike. That will force action.

I would agree that the volatility of the price of oil is driven by the futures market but to maintain levels of production, new fields need to be constantly developed. The balance of supply and demand on some projections is not looking too comfortable especially with China and India still expanding their economies.

We are not going to see the full benefits of the Longhorn development in terms of escalating cash flow and production until the Q1 2012 report is out so we have time for this mess to be sorted out.



Starcraftmazter said:


> The contagion is spreading quickly, and bond yields are spiraling out of control. Italy is basically insolvent now. Perhaps most importantly, nothing at all has actually been fixed or even addressed. I cannot understand how you or anyone can possibly proclaim it is "coming under control".
> 
> The price of oil as always is driven by speculators and derivatives. Sure it is fairly good and stable now, but that can literally change overnight.
> 
> ...


----------



## kyrondgm (24 February 2012)

Curious as to why discussion re Aurora has gone so quiet? Once one of the most discussed stocks on the market and 3 months without a new post!

There's been a fair bit of volatility recently, however no announcements to suggest why.

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (24 February 2012)

kyrondgm said:


> Curious as to why discussion re Aurora has gone so quiet? Once one of the most discussed stocks on the market and 3 months without a new post!




Probably because it's gone nowhere in the last 3 month.



kyrondgm said:


> There's been a fair bit of volatility recently, however no announcements to suggest why.




Oil price has broken out of it's range.


----------



## mr. jeff (24 February 2012)

Bueller's sick. 





It's self explanatory, but 3.50 is the magic number, and for me I don't like the amount of capital they are committed to this year. The price of gas hasn't exactly set the world on fire, and to add to that, it seems that the latest and greatest is shale over in Australia with stocks such as ICN, BPT, DLS, SXY, NSE, NWE etc. 

I know little about all above mentioned stocks btw, but watch most fairly closely...


----------



## Assasin (9 March 2012)

Well Mr Jeff, it's jumped straight through 3.50.
Very impressive presentation just out to confirm how and why AUT dominates small/medium-cap oilers.

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Com...s/1904-80010641/InvestorPresentationMarch2012 

Enjoy, it's a great read.


----------



## notting (9 March 2012)

Assasin said:


> Very impressive presentation just out to confirm how and why AUT dominates small/medium-cap oilers.







The dominator!!!


----------



## mr. jeff (11 March 2012)

Assasin said:


> Well Mr Jeff, it's jumped straight through 3.50.
> Very impressive presentation just out to confirm how and why AUT dominates small/medium-cap oilers.
> 
> http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Com...s/1904-80010641/InvestorPresentationMarch2012
> ...




OK I will. 




Massive effort to break that level. If I were looking to trade it, I would be concerned that it couldn't follow through. On the chart you can see that this has happened before. 

AUT has exciting prospects still, yes, but it must confirm that this resistance is properly cleared. At this stage and on the back of a company presentation, I would comfortably say that it has not proved it yet, however I will watch closely as this may offer an entry to the next leg up shortly, so thanks for highlighting the break - I had not seen it!!


----------



## trader8888 (11 March 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> OK I will.
> 
> View attachment 46391
> 
> ...





You may also want to note that Aurora trades on the TSX which closed at $3.87 last trading session, which = AUT ~$3.70. AUT's all time high is $3.71, if general market allows i can see AUT smashing out a new all time high in the next week if not tomorrow.

Cheers


----------



## trader8888 (11 March 2012)

notting said:


> View attachment 46381
> 
> 
> The dominator!!!




You should post a graph showing the growth over the last 3 years to give a better representation of how AUT has dominated, compared to peers.


----------



## poverty (12 March 2012)

Breaking out into uncharted territory this morning


----------



## trader8888 (12 March 2012)

trader8888 said:


> You may also want to note that Aurora trades on the TSX which closed at $3.87 last trading session, which = AUT ~$3.70. AUT's all time high is $3.71, if general market allows i can see AUT smashing out a new all time high in the next week if not tomorrow.
> 
> Cheers




Nice   The dominator, no spec here.


----------



## notting (12 March 2012)

trader8888 said:


> You should post a graph showing the growth over the last 3 years to give a better representation of how AUT has dominated, compared to peers.



It's done well on that time frame but not nearly as well as DLS so still doesn't deserve the tag The Dominator in my book.



trader8888 said:


> You may also want to note that Aurora trades on the TSX which closed at $3.87 last trading session, which = AUT ~$3.70. AUT's all time high is $3.71, if general market allows i can see AUT smashing out a new all time high in the next week if not tomorrow.
> 
> Cheers



Great you'll be real happy if it hits $9.48 (Jan 1994 it traded at 9.47.)

But all that aside.  
 You have made a great call, it's out and running so all credit to :bowdown:you.


----------



## trader8888 (12 March 2012)

notting said:


> It's done well on that time frame but not nearly as well as DLS so still doesn't deserve the tag The Dominator in my book.
> 
> 
> Great you'll be real happy if it hits $9.48 (Jan 1994 it traded at 9.47.)
> ...




When taking into account DLS's share consolidation AUT has actually out performed it by a long way.

DLS gain from 3 years ago ~1000%
AUT gain from 3 years ago ~3000%

Aurora oil and gas started trading on the ASX in April 2005


----------



## notting (12 March 2012)

trader8888 said:


> When taking into account DLS's share consolidation AUT has actually out performed it by a long way.
> 
> DLS gain from 3 years ago ~1000%
> AUT gain from 3 years ago ~3000%
> ...



That's funny Iress even has it paying a dividend in 1987!!
Perhaps I'm asleep and having a dream.


----------



## trader8888 (12 March 2012)

notting said:


> That's funny Iress even has it paying a dividend in 1987!!
> Perhaps I'm asleep and having a dream.




View this link for the history of Aurora oil and gas -  

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/content/about_history.html


----------



## Assasin (12 March 2012)

Pretty sure Condog started this trend when an all time high was hit.

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi

Enjoy.


----------



## jbbr78118 (13 March 2012)

Many in the US don't realize that that Aurora Oil and Gas can be bought on the US exchange under  AAGLF.PK    Your options are not limited to the ASX or TSX.


----------



## Assasin (13 March 2012)

jbbr78118 said:


> Many in the US don't realize that that Aurora Oil and Gas can be bought on the US exchange under  AAGLF.PK    Your options are not limited to the ASX or TSX.




Nice plug


----------



## Assasin (20 March 2012)

Reserves announcement out.
Incredible increase in 1P and 2P that must re-rate this company. Will we be seeing the SP north of $4 shortly??:bananasmi


----------



## mr. jeff (20 March 2012)

Assasin said:


> Reserves announcement out.
> Incredible increase in 1P and 2P that must re-rate this company. Will we be seeing the SP north of $4 shortly??:bananasmi








Wow. I was considering getting out of my holding at this stage due to a lack of action. 
Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
What is your interpretation Assasin - apart from bananas ? Was it expected ?


----------



## Assasin (21 March 2012)

Mr Jeff, my tecnicals experience isn't that great but yes this huge increase was expected. From reading everything I can find, AUT is at the beginning of a new era. I'm way over balanced with AUT (always have been), but I find it so hard to sell down.
I hope Trader posts an analysis he has put together, it's great stuff.


----------



## link128 (20 April 2012)

We've reached $4.00! People gearing up for the reports coming out in the next month.


----------



## RNI (21 April 2012)

Congratulations to all on AUT reaching the magic $4. Terrific, especially to those who have held for several years.

On an aside, does anyone know what has happened to Condog? He is not on the other forum either. I miss learning from his great knowledge which he gave freely, and miss his terrific posts. Hope he comes back. Anyone got any ideas why/ where he's gone etc?


----------



## Assasin (22 April 2012)

Year it's a good question RNI,
I did ask the same on the other thread.
Condog was also terrific at PM's where we would give imformation freely from his experience. I certainly owe him a lot as I would have sold out at a dollar if it wasn't for the imformation that came from Condog and others.


----------



## RNI (23 April 2012)

Hi Assasin

Pardon my ignorance but what are PM's, and you'll be pleased to hear Condog turned up on the other thread today, so great to see him around again. Certainly hope he stays.

Yea I have a lot to thank him for also. Gained a hec of a lot of knowledge from his posts but still learning.


----------



## Assasin (23 April 2012)

RNI said:


> Hi Assasin
> 
> Pardon my ignorance but what are PM's, and you'll be pleased to hear Condog turned up on the other thread today, so great to see him around again. Certainly hope he stays.
> 
> Yea I have a lot to thank him for also. Gained a hec of a lot of knowledge from his posts but still learning.




Hi RNI,
Yeah saw that, should we ask him for a please explain??

PM's are Personal messages that Aussie Stock Forum offers. I'll send you one as an examlpe. Look at the Notifications at thr top of your ASF homepage when you log on and you will see 1 there.
Cheers.


----------



## mr. jeff (30 April 2012)

AUT unconditional bid for EKA at 45c!!


----------



## Sdajii (30 April 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> AUT unconditional bid for EKA at 45c!!




I can only hope you AUT scumbags don't get your grubby hands on my EKA shares! :

I sold out of AUT recently but still hold all my EKA. I am *so* pissed off with AUT right now! Hopefully the EKA shareholders will sit tight.


----------



## Kremmen (30 April 2012)

Sdajii said:


> I can only hope you AUT scumbags don't get your grubby hands on my EKA shares! :



AUT is welcome to my EKA shares, if they pay what they're worth ... which is way more than what they are currently asking. Some big trades are happening well above the 45c level, so obviously the market expects this not to be the final offer.


----------



## Sdajii (30 April 2012)

I didn't expect this to be the final offer either, and sure, if they wanted to pay what they were worth it would be fine, but what are they worth? I had a target of something around a dollar. I'd probably sell out now for 70-80c, maybe a bit less, but for less than that I'd prefer to see what EKA can do over the year or two.

It's particularly frustrating to see this offer come when Brioche hasn't been touched yet, and no value is being factored into the share price. AUT probably wouldn't even want it, they'd just sell it off.

I was hoping to see what we're seeing today. AUT's order at 45c hasn't been touched. So far it looks like AUT will at least have to up their offer to something a little bit less ridiculous. I haven't been holding EKA for years to take 45c now.


----------



## poverty (30 April 2012)

Good day to be an AUT holder.  They're going to pick up EKA cheap, they'll have to pay a bit more than 45c, but not much more IMO.


----------



## Assasin (30 April 2012)

AUT "scumbags"???? Wow.   Thats not like you!

I think we all need to raise a toast to AUT for finally breathing some life into the EKA sp.
Sdajji, why aren't you as critical against EKA management for failing to at least maintain an sp at least close to where the all time high was let alone let it drop by more than 60%. Lets face it, EKA has been struggling to gain traction and positive sentiment in what is a tough market.
Agree the offer is a bit low but another 10-20% and it will be gone and we all do very nicely.

I have to declare I am a 5 year AUT happy holder.


----------



## Assasin (1 May 2012)

This could become very interesting in the next week. 
If the SP sneaks into the early 50's over the next few days, will we see a few large holders begin selling off assuming AUT may only need to up their offer 20% (54-55c)?
Not that all holders will be happy with that (I'm ecstatic) but who hasn't started to consider where their huge gains will be re-invested?
Or does everyone hold out and risk AUT walking away? What does that do to the SP in the short term?
Now we've all had time for this to soak in, lets hope something can be sorted out, I guess, as many here do, the advantages of holding both.
Can't say I won't miss those silly comparisons and ratios that were meaningless between both AUT and EKA. I've held both for a long time with AUT being a 12-bagger and EKA a 2-bagger on current prices. The only ratio worth worrying about.
Be great to hear from the more experienced.

By the way, we've all missed the point that AUT has continued to smash out new highs.
Got to be worth a few of these. :bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


----------



## philly (3 May 2012)

poverty said:


> Good day to be an AUT holder.  They're going to pick up EKA cheap, they'll have to pay a bit more than 45c, but not much more IMO.




EKA has rejected the AUT offer of 45 cents as below value.
It says SUGARLOAF is valued at 56 cents per share minimum. Also the current offer does not take into account EKA'S other interests namely Pan de Azucar [675 acres], Black Jack Springs [916 acres] and the Brioche Project [4460 acres] or cash reserves [$5.2 m as at 16/3/12]. It is difficult to factor in any value for its other acreage as at the moment we are dealing with potential. The cash reserves would be woth 2 cents per share. All in all it would seem that AUT will need to bid higher if it wants EKA. IMO it looks like 58 cents would be a starting point.


----------



## Assasin (3 May 2012)

My concern Philly, is what happens when AUT simly walks away which could be on the cards.
I wonder how far the SP will retrace, i guess that's why some are selling now.
Cheers.


----------



## philly (3 May 2012)

Assasin said:


> My concern Philly, is what happens when AUT simly walks away which could be on the cards.
> I wonder how far the SP will retrace, i guess that's why some are selling now.
> Cheers.




If AUT walks away then I would expect the SP to fall back to the low -mid 30 cent range.
The only hope would be that AUT'S takeover bid has exposed EKA to the market and there is some interest in it. The current management is certainly not very good at promoting itself. In fact today's release contained some passsion for once.


----------



## basilio (11 May 2012)

I just noticed there seems to be large financial scandal brewing around the operations of Chesapeake as a parent company to the many shale oil operators.

I havn't quite understand what has happened but does anyone in AUT  have any better information and does/could it impact on their operations and profitability ? 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/18/us-chesapeake-mcclendon-loans-idUSBRE83H0GA20120418


----------



## Kremmen (24 May 2012)

Fun to see the war of words between AUT and EKA. There were a few EKA sell-outs at 45c yesterday, but now we're back to 47/47.5c.

Those of us who've been investing in the Sugarloaf companies will remember the takeover of ADI about this time in 2010 by AWE. The initial offer then was increased by a few cents and everyone caved. Back when AUT made their EKA offer, I'd have said they'd need to increase it a lot (60c+), but the general market gloom has probably brought the required level down a bit. They could probably offer 55c and be successful, and it'd still be a good bargain for them.

If AUT holds firm on the 45c offer and don't get control, it's a huge wasted opportunity. Assuming that Sugarloaf performs well, as it has in the past, EKA's value will shoot up this year. (... and proportionately far more than AUT's, with so many rubbish wells outside Sugarloaf.)

[I hold both EKA and AUT]


----------



## trader8888 (30 May 2012)

Just found this very interesting piece of information on the TRRC submitted by marathon -

Now they state that estimated recoverable GAS reserves from Sienkiewicz 2h, 3h & 6h are 2.7BCF per well which works out to be 450,000 boe, now take into account they are only talking about the gas, so using the gas to condensate ratio for this part of the play which is 274bbls/mmscf we get - 

274 bbls x 2,700 mmscf = 739,000 bbls 

So adding the Gas and oil we get a per well EUR of -

1,189,800 boe 

Which is a long way from our current projected 748,000 EUR for this part of the play.

Also notice the %20 recovery factor, where as AUT's reserves are calculated on a recovery factor of ~7%, adding up the numbers they are assuming these figures on well spacing's of 72 acres so more upside to come with down spacing, which today AUT announced -

"Independent reservoir modelling being carried out – initial results supportive of down spacing from 80 acres."

Also notice how the hilcorp well only has an EUR of 1.6BCF or a total well EUR of -

1.6 * 6 = 266,000 boe

274 x 1600 = 438,000 bbls

Total EUR - 704,400 boe this is close to our current estimated EUR, and this just demonstrates just how committed marathon is to optimising drilling, completion and production processes.

At closer inspection the estimated EUR marathon are reporting for the condensate window 965,000 boe is basically the median figure of the implied EUR from marathon and AUT's estimated EUR

1,189,800 - 748,000 = 441,800

441,800 * 2 = 220,900

748,000 + 220,900 = 968,900

Could be a case of marathon not wanting to sound to bullish, or waiting until they have finished leasing before releasing what they really think.

Either way the EUR of 748,000 used for calculating AUT's reserves is way out of the ball park. Compound this with pilot drilling, Austin chalk production and pad drilling to come and the reserves figures start to multiply.


----------



## golfmos123 (13 June 2012)

Not much action on the thread of late despite the significant negative price action at the moment with the uncertainty of the EKA takeover.  Seems like AUT has been belted for it....

Would like to think it has bottomed out around $3 or so, but wary about getting back in just yet.....


----------



## Flipper (14 June 2012)

Does anyone know what happened to condog? I've been missing his insights around these forums lately.


----------



## howmanyru (14 June 2012)

Flipper said:


> Does anyone know what happened to condog? I've been missing his insights around these forums lately.




I would imagine he made his millions on AUT and split.


----------



## springhill (11 July 2012)

AUT has released their latest company presentation.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120710/pdf/427bjyknxnxkr0.pdf


----------



## RNI (21 July 2012)

springhill said:


> AUT has released their latest company presentation.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120710/pdf/427bjyknxnxkr0.pdf




Flipper

Condog has turned up on HC a bit lately which was great as many, like you and lots of others and myself have missed his fabulous input. He was a BIG personality and yes, very missed. Pity. Still hope he comes back.


----------



## Flipper (19 October 2012)

RNI said:


> Flipper
> 
> Condog has turned up on HC a bit lately which was great as many, like you and lots of others and myself have missed his fabulous input. He was a BIG personality and yes, very missed. Pity. Still hope he comes back.




RNI I've been away for a few months & am just seeing this now. Hotcopper you say? Does he still post under the same name? I'd love to buy that bloke afew beers! Heck i probably owe him a few slabs!


----------



## berbouy (19 October 2012)

gday flipper-condog was posting a while ao as oilgoldgas on the other site- say one thing about condog, he was always happy to share his knowledge of the industry, and especially the world of aut-hope he did make his millions!he was always worth reading, and knew aut inside out,should have listened to him, instead of locking in to samson- thems the breaks as they say.
have a good weekend.
howis aut travelling these days, havent followed for a while, any broker targets noted/being met?


----------



## So_Cynical (31 December 2012)

I probably shouldn't be saying this on this thread (fanbois and all) but with all the US gas independence talk and production costs close to break even across the US industry.

Is AUT now a mid to long term short??

Thoughts?


----------



## Assasin (19 February 2013)

Just curious  So_Cynical,

How did you fair with your position?


----------



## notting (28 March 2013)

Smashed WTF?





Report seemed all good to me.:dunno:


----------



## Sdajii (31 March 2013)

Looked good to me too. People selling the fact maybe? Selling before May and staying away?

I sold out quite a while ago after holding long term from about 65c  to $3.42 and trading along the way. It seemed to have completed most of its run when I sold (though I suppose it has topped $4 since then). Anyway, I was puzzled by Thursday's drop too and decided to buy back in. Not the size of holding I had before, but a few. 

GLTAH


----------



## howmanyru (18 April 2013)

Anyone know why this is tanking so hard? Bought in at $3.30 thinking I had a bargain - DOH.


----------



## bman84 (18 April 2013)

The fundamentals are still strong. Buying more today. I cannot see them going any lower, at this price I'm treating them as a bargain!

Been holding since 16c, and topping up along the way with these drops. Yet to sell any.


----------



## thirstcrusher (10 September 2013)

Anyone holding Aurora? I am. Any chance it will hit $4?


----------



## infamous (13 December 2013)

From todays ASX announcement:



> Aurora is in final discussions with Marathon and concluding its analysis regarding specific plans for 2014 on their jointly- owned Sugarkane Field assets. The results of this analysis will have a materially positive impact on Aurora’s own
> guidance for 2014. Aurora will issue 2014 guidance by early January 2014.






> Initial implications for Aurora
> Marathon’s accelerated development program and move to tighter development spacing is expected to have a materially
> positive impact on Aurora’s production and reserves growth. More wells are expected to be developed in 2014 at lower
> capital costs resulting in a material increase in production.
> Aurora is preparing guidance for 2014 and will update the market in early January 2014.




Seems to be a very solid (fundamentally) stock that doesn't seem to be getting any love from the market, hopefully come reporting time it gets the attention it deserves


----------



## WRONG'UN (13 December 2013)

This may be so, but the trouble with AUT is that all the big gains in the stock took place in 2009 and 2010 - a 15x gain, before its potential production was a reality. Since then, although it has a lot more wells, the sp has churned sideways. Right or wrong, that's how the market sees it.


----------



## cmxd (7 February 2014)

WRONG'UN said:


> This may be so, but the trouble with AUT is that all the big gains in the stock took place in 2009 and 2010 - a 15x gain, before its potential production was a reality. Since then, although it has a lot more wells, the sp has churned sideways. Right or wrong, that's how the market sees it.




Aut will be sold at $4.10

http://aut2.live.irmau.com/IRM/Comp...465390/ProposedAcquisitionbyBaytexEnergyat410


----------



## infamous (7 February 2014)

Well that brought a smile to my daily login


----------



## skc (7 February 2014)

cmxd said:


> Aut will be sold at $4.10
> 
> http://aut2.live.irmau.com/IRM/Comp...465390/ProposedAcquisitionbyBaytexEnergyat410




That's a very hefty premium and very aggressive bid. $4.10 is almost all time high for AUT. 

Will there be any more offers out of the woodwork? 

It dragged every other ASX oiler along as well.


----------



## cmxd (7 February 2014)

skc said:


> That's a very hefty premium and very aggressive bid. $4.10 is almost all time high for AUT.
> 
> Will there be any more offers out of the woodwork?
> 
> It dragged every other ASX oiler along as well.




That's right, today so far, SEA increased 10.36% at $1.065


----------



## cmxd (7 February 2014)

need help. 

who has the experience regarding the proposed acquisition, as a AUT shareholder, what should we do at moment or just wait for the process of transaction.

http://aut2.live.irmau.com/IRM/Comp...465390/ProposedAcquisitionbyBaytexEnergyat410

Thanks.


----------



## notting (7 February 2014)

I sold on the opening bounce!
It's a great offer, it will most likely go through.
There was some talk at the open of an alternate bidder which is why it was so strong even for a take over.
I'm not going to hang around for a second bidder.
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
I'd expect it to drift off a bit then to go through at the offer price.

I am also whatching the sector to initiate shorts.
It's a stupid thing that they all jump because one gets snapped up and is usually a great shorting opportunity.
Note the price action on AUT was very negative before today and it is, in my mind, one of the best, if not the best of the madcaps. That price action, prior to today, is where the sentiment is *really* at on the global scale and I expect it to return to our little island fairly quickly!!
AUT board have done a brilliant job with the acceptance and no leaks!


----------



## skc (7 February 2014)

cmxd said:


> need help.
> 
> who has the experience regarding the proposed acquisition, as a AUT shareholder, what should we do at moment or just wait for the process of transaction.
> 
> ...




It's entirely up to you. You can either wait for the transaction to take place, hold in anticipation of another potential bidder, or sell on market now.


----------



## VSntchr (7 February 2014)

I had a long on this about 2 weeks ago :|


----------



## cmxd (7 February 2014)

skc said:


> It's entirely up to you. You can either wait for the transaction to take place, hold in anticipation of another potential bidder, or sell on market now.




Thanks for your reply. if everything goes through smoothly, the whole process will be finished mid of May. I might sell  mine on market as well.


----------



## infamous (7 February 2014)

Decided (like notting) not to look a gift horse in the mouth, sold out for a healthy 30% profit.
Pretty happy considering I only held the stock for 2 months.

Managed to get the $4.10 now, obviously some are anticipating some competition to push the price further, otherwise I cannot see the justification for paying that price.

Will be interested to see if there is any further positive movement


----------



## Sdajii (7 February 2014)

VSntchr said:


> I had a long on this about 2 weeks ago :|




I got stopped out yesterday afternoon! 

Haha, oh well


----------



## thirstcrusher (7 February 2014)

yummy..$4.09


----------



## thirstcrusher (10 February 2014)

anyone still holding?


----------



## cmxd (11 February 2014)

thirstcrusher said:


> anyone still holding?




sold some for $4.12 yesterday, still hold big amount. not sure why some people would like to pay higher than $4.10 to get it. there might be penitential bidders.


----------



## raimop (31 March 2014)

Can anyone please explain to me why fund managers are buying large volumes at around $4.10? Do they think there is going to be another bidder albeit the current bid was made on 7/2/14 and in 7 weeks there have been no further bids


----------



## raimop (11 April 2014)

Another condition precedent satisfied today and still no further bidders.
Doesn't look like there will be a bidding war for this one
May be time to sell and re-invest
Any other views out there???

I hold for now!!


----------



## System (16 June 2014)

On June 12th, 2014, Aurora Oil and Gas Limited (AUT) was removed from the ASX's official list following the implementation of a scheme of arrangement whereby Baytex Energy Australia Pty Ltd acquired all of the shares in the company.


----------

