# Futures trading journal - GB



## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Documenting as I paper trade ES, CL, GC, etc.  Add your helpful suggestions as they occur to you.

It's a simple method.

Find higher TF bias.  Once established, trade on a smaller TF in line with this bias.

1.  Mark out FVGs of daily, weekly and monthly, both above and below the current price.
2.  Find the most recent pivot on the daily.
3.  Did this daily pivot:

(make a Vic2B pattern, ie. take out high/low-side liquidity and return above/below the previous pivot, *or*
hit a large-ish daily/weekly/monthly FVG, and bounce off it), *and*
have one or more taregt FVGs within reasonable distance?  Here, I'm looking for an imbalance (FVG) to magnetize the price towards it.
5.  If yes, this pvot forms the bias for trades on a smaller TF.  The high TF bias remains true until

the pivot in question is busted in the opposite direction, or
a new Vic2B forms in the opposite direction.
be wary of taking new trades in the direction of the bias when a major pivor or FVG is met on this higher TF.
6.  The trade set up is similar, but done on a smaller TF.  It buys within 'discount' zone and sells as the imbalances are rebalanced.


CL daily.  Current bias is long until 98.31 or one of the other conditions occurs.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

CL trade, just recently.  1 min chart.  Many of these are 1:1, which is not ideal, but I'm lookng at target placement.

The 'discount' zone is below the 50% fib retrace after a 'decent' break in market structure.

3 contracts with 3 scale out points.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

GC daily.  Bias is still long.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Same deal.  GC 1 min.  I don't have live data for gold, but not a problem for paper trading.


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## peter2 (10 October 2022)

I'm pleased that you've started your own thread. Your market structure is sound and will provide plenty of opportunities.  All the best.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

peter2 said:


> I'm pleased that you've started your own thread. Your market structure is sound and will provide plenty of opportunities.  All the best.



Thanks Peter.

The 3rd target is a fair way off.   Anyone looking at timestamps can say this trade already happened.  Well, yes, but not for me.  Delayed data, as mentioned.  And I'm paper trading, also mentioned.

1st target was the high pivot that formed the set up.  2nd target at the second FVG.  3rd at the 3rd FVG.

In the case where there's not 3 targets within reasonably close range, I may just trade 1 contract.  Not sure yet.


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## Captain_Chaza (10 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Documenting as I paper trade ES, CL, GC, etc.  Add your helpful suggestions as they occur to you.
> 
> It's a simple method.
> 
> ...



As in all Professional Sports 
90% of any success is based on above the shoulders in real time
Paper trading albeit necessary  is only  worth 10% to me

Congratulations  to you in starting  off   on your trials on
" The Greatest Sport of Them All"

I wish you all the Best


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

HSI is feeling out old lows, back to 2016, and may turn bullish.  Let's see if it can make a decent close > 18127

HSI daily.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

FESX has met short target (and FVG) and bounced.  So I'd call this a long bias now, on the daily TF.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

1 min FESX


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

A neat one.  Wonder if it holds above the daily imbalance level.  Could signal a green day for ES?


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks Peter.
> 
> The 3rd target is a fair way off.   Anyone looking at timestamps can say this trade already happened.  Well, yes, but not for me.  Delayed data, as mentioned.  And I'm paper trading, also mentioned.
> 
> ...



2 contracts met targets, 3rd contract was stopped out below 1692.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> As in all Professional Sports
> 90% of any success is based on above the shoulders in real time
> Paper trading albeit necessary  is only  worth 10% to me
> 
> ...



I agree, without skin in the game, this is in no way representative of what will happen with real money.  Emotions are commonly cited as a cause of failure since they can make us override our rules, but I think it goes a lot deeper than that.  I won't get into any new agey stuff on here though.  Maybe later!


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Next trade, CL.  In real trading I'd hesitate to take this one, but I don't know why.  Just intuition I guess.  However it meets the rules for a long trade.

Cl 1min


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Next trade, CL.  In real trading I'd hesitate to take this one, but I don't know why.  Just intuition I guess.  However it meets the rules for a long trade.
> 
> Cl 1min
> 
> View attachment 147904



Still in it, just missed my stop.  It's back at my entry.  I still don't like it though and in real trading I'd get out at break-even.  I might add this as a rule.  If after entry the price goes against me and falls to the initial pivot (without stopping me out), I will attempt to exit at break-even.

FESX is now long daily bias.  Looking for long trades on the smaller TF.

FESX daily.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2022)

Gold has broken down through FVB on daily, so now short bias.

Short trade as shown.  Only 1 target, so 1 contract.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

CL ended up hitting all 3 targets, but I think I might stick with that new rule mentioned earlier.  Not sure.






And gold hit target.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

Biggest problem, as always, is implementation which involves screen time+++.  

I've manually plotted out a heap of these trades on the 1 min.  Looks ok.  If a system is solid, it should work equally on 1/5/10/15m TFs.  Could change to trade just one instrument, or follow 5 or 6 different contracts on 5 min.  I don't think it would work on 1hr or higher TF.

Any suggestions welcome.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

*Long TF Biases.*

CL none
GC short
HSI short
FESX none
ES short
FDAX none.

*Potential trade entries* (using 5 min charts)

GC short from 1676
HSI short from 17087
ES short from 3618.5


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

GC 1m short x1.  tgt shown.

GC 5 min


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

Found another ES short.  Could have gone for a higher entry, since there were 3, but rules are rules.  RR isn't great.  1:1.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

ES at target.





GC at target, at the same time.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

CL bias now short.

[edited: that chart I just took down was 1 min TF.  So, daily bias is short, and the 5 min TF is the one I'm trading.  No trade on the 5 min]


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## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2022)

Rules needs some clarification.  Specifically, what max/min distance (number of ticks) between the entry and exit is acceptable?  It's going to depend upon the instrument obviously.  These don't need to be hard rules - just a vague range is ok.

These measurements represent the acceptable distance from the initial Vic2b pivot to the maximum excursion following market structure break.

ES:  30-70 ticks
FESX: 10-20 ticks
GC: 20-40 ticks
CL: 50-80 ticks

The other possibility would be to take all trades, regardless of distance, and use position sizing to equalize the risk.  That would require trading micros.  My understanding is that micros trade differently to the minis, is that correct?


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

Testing some new position sizing scripts.  The ones avalable on TV aren't much chop.

ES 5 min.  Short 2.  2 targets.  I think this trade might take out the monthly imbalance at 3572.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Testing some new position sizing scripts.  The ones avalable on TV aren't much chop.
> 
> ES 5 min.  Short 2.  2 targets.  I think this trade might take out the monthly imbalance at 3572.
> 
> View attachment 147939



Stopped out.  First losing trade.


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## Roller_1 (12 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> ES: 30-70 ticks




Is this the distance between your stoploss and entry point? 70 ticks is pretty wide isn't it. Okay if you have a large account I guess in % terms


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## divs4ever (12 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I agree, without skin in the game, this is in no way representative of what will happen with real money.  Emotions are commonly cited as a cause of failure since they can make us override our rules, but I think it goes a lot deeper than that.  I won't get into any new agey stuff on here though.  Maybe later!



 i disagree , in my experience , paper trading  in very good at highlighting flawed strategies  ,  for sure  finding solid strategies  via paper trading is much harder ( and with mixed success ) 

 but reducing bad strategies is something i find helpful ( and i enjoy less damage to the cash reserves  as well )

 good luck , and keep up the good work


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## Roller_1 (12 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i disagree , in my experience , paper trading  in very good at highlighting flawed strategies  ,  for sure  finding solid strategies  via paper trading is much harder ( and with mixed success )
> 
> but reducing bad strategies is something i find helpful ( and i enjoy less damage to the cash reserves  as well )
> 
> good luck , and keep up the good work




As I am currently paper trading I agree. 

I look at it as though you cannot call yourself a profitable paper trader but there is no point in going live if you cannot make money paper trading. If you are paper trading and losing money then it is silly to start trading live and think for some reason you are going to become profitable. But if you are a consistently profitable paper trader then you still need to be dubious until you can get the same track record with live trades. I have no intention of going live until I can get some consistently on the Sim. If I can't get there then at least I've tried without losing money


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Is this the distance between your stoploss and entry point? 70 ticks is pretty wide isn't it. Okay if you have a large account I guess in % terms



I was thinking it was on the small side?  No, not a big account.

The distance marked by yellow arrow.  In this case, it's 290 ticks, on the 5 min ES chart.  (not an actual trade).


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## Roller_1 (12 October 2022)

ES $12.5 a tick. $875 risk. need a good win %!

Or are you trading micros


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> ES $12.5 a tick. $875 risk. need a good win %!



Why would win rate % need to be high?  Is there some relationship between the amount risked and the WR that I'm unaware of?


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## divs4ever (12 October 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> As I am currently paper trading I agree.
> 
> I look at it as though you cannot call yourself a profitable paper trader but there is no point in going live if you cannot make money paper trading. If you are paper trading and losing money then it is silly to start trading live and think for some reason you are going to become profitable. But if you are a consistently profitable paper trader then you still need to be dubious until you can get the same track record with live trades. I have no intention of going live until I can get some consistently on the Sim. If I can't get there then at least I've tried without losing money



 given that i used to punt on the race-tracks ( not completely different from trading , in it's approach )

 you can do well on the percentage  approach  win big  occasionally  to offset several small losses ( between pay-days ) of course that takes  patience and discernment  , not every horse is a winner  no matter how promising it looks on the record books 

 all investing ( and gambling ) is about risk v. reward   ( and i have seen fortunes lost  on those that double-down  on 'unlucky bets ' , and other fortunes lost by those that confuse luck with skill ) ( i quit gambling when luck was saving me  from the effects of poor judgment )

 cheers


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## divs4ever (12 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Why would win rate % need to be high?  Is there some relationship between the amount risked and the WR that I'm unaware of?



 profit ( after costs and taxes )  is what counts ( to most ) ( and that is a trap paper trading  can hide from you )

 now obviously you can have one nice win and quit ( forever ) but the usual tendency  is to try and win again and again  despite a string of poor outcomes 

 now of course  you could trade  you preferred market  OR buy shares  in a trading house/platform  ( OFX for example ) and run a smaller but possibly reliable return that way 

 ( i gave up the racecourses  and bought TAH and got some TLC from the demerger  as an example )


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

High TF bias.

GC short
HSI short
CL short

others, no bias.

GC short.  5 min chart.



GC


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

I'm always on the lookout for a better way, a short cut, higher efficiency, greater returns for less work.  In my view, the aim of trading is to do the least amount of work for the highest return.

Getting the higher TF bias right is the key.  After all, if you can do this, even an 'MA crossover' system is going to do well.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

Apparently 80% of traders lose over the long term.  Of the 20%, I don't know what the break down is.  I'd guess 5-10% make enough to live off.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 October 2022)

Big green candle to stop out the gold trade.


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## Roller_1 (12 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Why would win rate % need to be high?  Is there some relationship between the amount risked and the WR that I'm unaware of?




No but obviously the more you risk percentagewise you are going to need a decent R:R to skew the results in your favour. If you have that it is good and carry on. I guess when you get more stats will know how you are going. 

Just would not take much to dig a decent hole was my concern


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

Indices sitting on FVGs, no real direction.  It's going to last a bit longer by the feel of it.

GC short bias, but not interested.

ES: if it breaks down through the monthly imbalance, will go to 3543.5 in a hurry.


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## Roller_1 (13 October 2022)

A heads up CPI numbers out tonight.. calm before the storm no doubt.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Big green candle to stop out the gold trade.
> 
> View attachment 147958



Why the gold short trade lost?  There was a huge imbalance above it that was begging to be taken out.  Possibly the reason.  

Why the ES trade lost?  Can't see any reason.  Set up looks quite reasonable.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> A heads up CPI numbers out tonight.. calm before the storm no doubt.



Thanks, I need a good news source.  Do you use the Forex Factory news calendar app?


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

It's a pretty bad bear market.  Have a look at the thickness of the bearish imbalances (pink) on the daily compared to covid 2020 bear market. Where will it end?  3060?  Wherever it ends, it will be a long way lower than where we are now, imo.  3434 a key level.  That's the line marking the beginning of the covid 2020 dump.

ES, daily.


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## Roller_1 (13 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks, I need a good news source.  Do you use the Forex Factory news calendar app?











						Live Forex Economic Calendar | Forexlive
					

Your free realtime economic events calendar for forex traders from forexlive. Use our forex economic calendar and view events for today or this week.




					www.forexlive.com
				




it locks up a bit but has a basic calender


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

How will Mr Market (or Composite Man) manage to move the market in such a way that 80% of retail traders will lose?  Because that's what he's going to do.  Every single time, and on every TF.

We all know he's going to take out 3572 (the monthly imbalance), but how will he move it to that level so that 80% of traders lose in the process?


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## Captain_Chaza (13 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How will Mr Market (or Composite Man) manage to move the market in such a way that 80% of retail traders will lose?  Because that's what he's going to do.  Every single time, and on every TF.
> 
> We all know he's going to take out 3572 (the monthly imbalance), but how will he move it to that level so that 80% of traders lose in the process?



Mr Composite man does not have to move the Markets
The Simple fact is that smart
*"BULLS make MONEY!"
"BEARS make MONEY!"*
However Intra-day Greedy
*"PIGS get SLAUGHTERED!"*

I still wish you all the Best on what I call
"The Impossible Challenge"

 Salute and Gods' Speed


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

Sentiment analysis might be a good way to determine daily market bias.  Marketwatch usually have a provocative picture accompanying their lead story.  This is tonights.  Does that mean they want to move it up?


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## Gringotts Bank (13 October 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Mr Composite man does not have to move the Markets
> The Simple fact is that smart
> *"BULLS make MONEY!"
> "BEARS make MONEY!"*
> ...



How do you define greed?  Is it different from desire?


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## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2022)

SLAM.

Long from 3532 if it gets back there.  I think it will.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> SLAM.
> 
> Long from 3532 if it gets back there.  I think it will.



Missed my long entry by a few ticks.

It fell off a cliff alright, then scrambled straight back up, like a rat up a drainpipe.

The weekly and monthly imbalances were rebalanced in one fell swoop.  I knew it was going to happen. * Everyone* knew it was going to happen.  I suppose when it's that obvious, Mr Composite is not going to retrace at all.  If I'm entering on a retrace, it means I'm not going to be able to trade these big moves.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2022)

The high TF biases are not easy to determine right now.  

ES looks very strong, like it will grind up without offering an opportunity to buy the retrace at 3688.25.  That's where my buy is.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2022)

CL long from 89.08

CL 5m.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2022)

Target met.

So far, I'd say I have no confidence in my system, even though I'm doing pretty well.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The high TF biases are not easy to determine right now.
> 
> ES looks very strong, like it will grind up without offering an opportunity to buy the retrace at 3688.25.  That's where my buy is.



This ^^ recent ES trade was stopped out.

New long, ES.


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## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2022)

Can I kick it?  Yes, I can.


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## peter2 (15 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> So far, I'd say I have no confidence in my system, even though I'm doing pretty well.



Do what you need to do to become confident.

(i) Consider reducing the size of your initial SL. You'll get stopped out a little more but you'll earn a lot more in the winnings trades.

(ii) Those Vic2b's seem to be working out OK. Perhaps they can be another setup for you.


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## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2022)

Good advice, thanks Peter.  I think I would have been stopped out on most trades if I'd reduced my stop distance, but I'll see what I can do.

Other:

I'm finding I _do_ actually need the 1 min chart to catch big moves.  If a big move is coming, there will be an opportunity to get in on a retrace. It's right at the start, it's usually generous, and then it takes off, never dropping back under a 50% retrace until the move is finished.

If you can see a big move coming (say there's massive volatility like the other night), you won't get a chance to trade this Vic2b set up on the 5 min TF.  Composite Man doesn't want traders getting in on the retrace if there's a big move in play, because then too many retail traders would win.

Notice how the market waited for the news to move ES below monthly and weekly imbalance zones.  They used the bad numbers to pick up liquidity  then move it higher.  It's all rigged.  Composite Man will kill you if you're not in tune with him.  And he'll give you more money than you know what to do with if you are in tune.

Composite Man will always move the market in such a way that 80% of traders lose.


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## barney (15 October 2022)

Appreciate the time put into the Thread Gringo .....   I love Futs trading but have never been particularly good at it (low discipline threshold lol).  Good luck and I hope you do well with it.


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## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2022)

Basically I'm trading a type of ABC, with 'A' as the Vic2b pattern.

For longs, the price zigs up, it zags down (retrace), which is where I want to enter, then offload it back at the top of the first zig (or stop out if it goes below the starting point of the first zig up).  I enter at an FVG, so long as the FVG is in the lower half of the upswing, ensuring an RR>1.

Something I'm going to add - a new rule.  This is for long trades, vice-versa for shorts. 

*When the prices retarces to my buy point, the cumulative volume of the downswing must be significantly lower than the initial up swing.*

Makes sense doesn't it?  It would be ridiculous to enter a long trade if the volume in the swing down to my buy level was (say) equal to the initial upswing.  This is where I need a swing-based cumulative delta volume indicator (a true delta, not the crap that you get on TV and most charting packages).  SierraChart has excellent studies for this, but I'm going to compromise for now.  NT8 has them, but I don't like NT - gone right off that platform.  Their support desk is completely unreliable.


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## barney (15 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *When the prices retraces to my buy point, the cumulative volume of the downswing must be significantly lower than the initial up swing.*




Absolutely (in my own humble and un-tested opinion)

I remember you and @Trembling Hand used to have some 'Robust' conversations (back in the dark ages, lol), regarding many Futs/general trading situations.

If TH is potentially still lurking, I for one (and I assume you would be of the same opinion @Gringotts Bank ), would really appreciate his input in these difficult times


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## Captain_Chaza (15 October 2022)

Do you have any Open Contracts ? ATM
In $ real time or on paper $'s
ie : What's in your logbook  ATM  approaching MONDAY?

Let's see how she goes


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## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2022)

barney said:


> Absolutely (in my own humble and un-tested opinion)
> 
> I remember you and @Trembling Hand used to have some 'Robust' conversations (back in the dark ages, lol), regarding many Futs/general trading situations.
> 
> If TH is potentially still lurking, I for one (and I assume you would be of the same opinion @Gringotts Bank ), would really appreciate his input in these difficult times



I think he's quite a successful futs trader.  I'm not.  Our arguments were around issues that he thought were tangential to trading, namely the psychological aspect.

Regarding the lower volume in the downswing, it only applies when the downswing moves below the 50% retrace (which is what this system looks for).  A high volume retrace that is shallow would of course represent re-accumulation, and be bullish.


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## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Do you have any Open Contracts ? ATM
> In $ real time or on paper $'s
> ie : What's in your logbook  ATM  approaching MONDAY?
> 
> ...



  No.
Paper.
Buy ES at current price (unless it gaps up Mon), with a tight stop, and target at the daily imbalance.  Shown.

5 min.


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## barney (16 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Our arguments were around issues that he thought were tangential to trading, namely the psychological aspect.



Yeah I recall there were regular disagreements, but always interesting


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## Gringotts Bank (16 October 2022)

Not much point tracking several index futs, since they're so closely correlated.  Will limit it to ES, CL and GC.

high TF bias.

ES long.
CL none.
GC short.

Whilst I'm comfortable with the trade set up, I'm not really happy with the method for finding the higher TF bias.  Any suggestions out there please?  When to focus solely on finding long vs short trades.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2022)

CL long bias.
ES long bias
GC short bias

CL long with tighter stop. from 86.13, right on the 50% retrace.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2022)

A nice quick one.  24 ticks.  In real trading, it's unlikely my buy order would have been filled, but anyway.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2022)

GC short.  Reduced stop distance.


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## peter2 (17 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Whilst I'm comfortable with the trade set up, I'm not really happy with the method for finding the higher TF bias. Any suggestions out there please? When to focus solely on finding long vs short trades.



That is a good question.  Any indicators that you choose will be both useful and useless. I've looked at moving averages mostly and a peek at MACD. Both on higher timeframes than what I'm using to frame a trade. As you know these impulsive/corrective swings appear in all timeframes and this makes things difficult. I haven't found an indicator reliable enough yet. 

I look at the nature of the swings to judge if they're impulsive (clean, fast) or corrective (slow, sloppy and not in main sessions). If I notice an impulsive move making a new swing high then I'll assume the next trade opp will be a long and wait for price to correct back in the range.   When I'm undecided looking at my trading timeframe I look at a larger timeframes (4hr, Dly). Again, less than ideal but it pays to follow the larger trends until there's an impulsive move that changes the trend. 

IMHO, CL was a short as the last swing down looked impulsive. However, price didn't correct enough and get into my sell zone (50 - 62%).



	

		
			
		

		
	
 . 
	

		
			
		

		
	




XAUUSD is worth a short (now) based on the impulsive move down in the prior US session. I'd check this against the USDXY to confirm.

Then we get charts like the SP500 (ES) index. Do I use Thursday's impulsive swing up or Friday's swing down as the basis for my trade. 



	

		
			
		

		
	
 ???

My aim is to keep trading in a consistent manner and let the stats indicate if my initial assessment is correct enough times to make a profit. Getting it right and hitting an extended target is a thing of beauty. Getting it wrong is part of trading.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2022)

peter2 said:


> That is a good question.  Any indicators that you choose will be both useful and useless. I've looked at moving averages mostly and a peek at MACD. Both on higher timeframes than what I'm using to frame a trade. As you know these impulsive/corrective swings appear in all timeframes and this makes things difficult. I haven't found an indicator reliable enough yet.
> 
> I look at the nature of the swings to judge if they're impulsive (clean, fast) or corrective (slow, sloppy and not in main sessions). If I notice an impulsive move making a new swing high then I'll assume the next trade opp will be a long and wait for price to correct back in the range.   When I'm undecided looking at my trading timeframe I look at a larger timeframes (4hr, Dly). Again, less than ideal but it pays to follow the larger trends until there's an impulsive move that changes the trend.
> 
> ...



Clean swings, I like that idea thanks.  I used to look for 'smiley' versus 'sad' swings - similar to your idea.  Smiley is bullish (more curved lower pivots, more pointy high pivots), sad is bearish (more curved upper pivots, more pointy lower pivots).  Sometimes there's a bit of both happening, needing interpretation but when CL smiles, it smiles big!

I'll try to remember to integrate both.

So a few new rules since starting.


Volume lower in the retrace swing.
Clean impulsive and smiley (long) or frowny (short) swings
If the price goes near the stop and retraces to the entry point, get out at break even
Shorten the stop distance, where possible


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## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2022)

CL smiles and frowns.


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## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> GC short.  Reduced stop distance.
> 
> View attachment 148130



GC stopped out.  Too smiley for short in retrospect.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> No.
> Paper.
> Buy ES at current price (unless it gaps up Mon), with a tight stop, and target at the daily imbalance.  Shown.
> 
> ...



The perfect trade.


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## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2022)

GC short bias, only just.
CL none
ES none


----------



## Roller_1 (18 October 2022)

ES Looking ripe for a nice short imo

edit: if it gets back below 3751


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2022)

WR is about 70% so far.

Average R:R is about 1:1.5

I used to have a calulator for this.  Anyone know what the expectancy is?  The $profit/loss will be the same on each trade, because I plan to trade micros to get position sizing right.  I don't pay too much attention to maths, but so long as I'm on the right track, that's the main thing.

I've changed a few minor rules here and there.  The aim is to keep tweaking if needed, and stabilize over time.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2022)

The way I'm determining the higher TF is too far removed from the 5m TF where I'm making my trades.

So from now, higher TF bias will be worked out as follows:  

Mark out D/W/M FVGs above and below current price.  Be mindful of which of these is drawing the price.
on 5 min (regular market hrs), assess over several days whether the volume is in the up or down moves
Then for the trade set up:

are the most recent swings smiley or frowny and 'clean'?
Vic 2b
market structure shift with strong displacement
retracement has lower volume
buy is discount zone
target is previous high pvot, and stop placed to give a minimum of 1:2RR


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Just entered a CL long with a tight stop.  Taken out immediately, so that's a loser.  Looking to get back in on the next set up, because I still think it's going higher.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

New CL long.  About 1:3.

Stopped out immediately once again.  Small losses.  Volumes still favouring the downswings.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

whoah nelly -   Heavy dump.  I certainly had this one wrong.  I'd say it's the volume analysis.  Wasn't nearly enough in my favour to take those last two trades.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

That last leg turned out to be climactic selling volume, but I had to go to beddy byes.  CL had a ripper trade there at about 3:30am.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Didn't take this one because the volume is in the downswings.  That big 25 volume dominating the picture.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

GC long.  Late to enter, but price is the same as the entry.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> GC long.  Late to enter, but price is the same as the entry.
> 
> 
> View attachment 148220



Stopped out.  Why?  Well it's clear (in retrospect) that the FVG imbalance at 1622 is drawing the price.  What I've learned here is to priotritize the imbalance zones over swing volumes.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Let's hope I break the losing streak with this long ES.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Let's hope I break the losing streak with this long ES.
> 
> View attachment 148223


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Stopped out again.  Geez.  Time for a break.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (19 October 2022)

*It  Gets Better
The First Ten (10)  Years are the Worst

after that 
It can sometimes be Plain Sailing*


----------



## Modest (19 October 2022)

3670 on ES tonight hopefully


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2022)

Modest said:


> 3670 on ES tonight hopefully



Related to this?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 October 2022)

I'm going against the master's advice.

Long ES


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 October 2022)

Modest said:


> 3670 on ES tonight hopefully



Just like he said.  It went lower and I got stopped out.

Would love a bit of guidance please @Modest.


----------



## Modest (20 October 2022)

You probably don’t want my guidance because I’d tell you to remove everything from your chart except for the candles


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 October 2022)

Modest said:


> You probably don’t want my guidance because I’d tell you to remove everything from your chart except for the candles



Easily done.  Was it a serious offer to help?


----------



## Modest (20 October 2022)

Now zoom out and tell me what the current  trend is on 60 min TF


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 October 2022)

Modest said:


> Now zoom out and tell me what the current  trend is on 60 min TF



Clearly lower.


----------



## Modest (20 October 2022)

Now explain to me why you are trying to go long 

Go with the flow.


Find patterns that repeat that change trend. Once you get very good you can start picking tops and bottoms. Hint these will be found on HTFs


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 October 2022)

Modest said:


> Now explain to me why you are trying to go long
> 
> Go with the flow



ok, so base higher TF on the hourly.  Ready for the next lesson.

Regarding the entry rules I've been using - are any of them good?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 October 2022)

Modest said:


> Now explain to me why you are trying to go long
> 
> Go with the flow.
> 
> ...



"Find patterns that repeat that change trend".

I thought I was doing that with the Vic2B reversal.  Maybe daily is too high.  Will try hourly.


----------



## Modest (20 October 2022)

No no I am not dismissing any of that strategy… I haven’t had a chance to review it mate! Daily is stronger then hourly, weekly stronger then daily etc in terms of structure


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 October 2022)

ES long.

Hourly chart has higher lows. 

ES 60m.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 October 2022)

Target met.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 October 2022)

Long ES 

60m chart.  Will probably take days to play out.


----------



## Roller_1 (21 October 2022)

is that Weis wave volume? the numbers?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 October 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> is that Weis wave volume? the numbers?



Yes, the volume is scaled down x200 to make it easier to read.  I just use it to get a very rough idea of where the volume is.

I used to think think Weis' stuff was the holy grail, had a code made up and did all sorts of configurations of waves in backtests.  Never found anything profitable.

3x shrinking wave volume in the downswings is not a bad signal, but needs a lot of confirmation.  Here you can see  6173 -> 119 -> 61.  It doesn't look forward if you make your zigzag 0.00001.  Equivalent to ROC(C,1).


----------



## Roller_1 (21 October 2022)

yeh ok, fair enough hopefully you find value in it


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 October 2022)

What a ripper.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 October 2022)

Note to self:

Plan without believing in your plans.  Do the prep work, but don't take the prep work seriously.

Success - when it comes - seems more like a kind of providence than 'working and achieving'.  Hard to describe, but I reckon trading is all about mindset.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 October 2022)

Finally - *Long HSI.*  I think this can be ridden all the way up to 17059 - that's my target, believe it or not.  Stop is at 14532.


----------



## Modest (25 October 2022)

ES 3845ish might be a good short there


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 October 2022)

Missed my entry.  Short ES if it gets back up to 3807.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 October 2022)

Still in it it... just.  Not looking great.  Target is way down at 3775.

The big 57 down volume (asterix) dominates the picture, so I might be lucky.

If not, will set up for another short, and try to reach 3775.

[edit] Got stopped out whilst posting.  A stop above 3820 would have made more sense.  Around 3825 maybe.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 October 2022)

How's that, it took out my stop to the point.

Back in short.  Target 3775.  This time, stop is at 3825.

ES 5m


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2022)

ES.  Huge move, unexpected.  Stopped out.

HSI trade sitting flat.  Will exit if it doesn't make its move today.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2022)

We know that most traders lose over the long term (80-90+%).  This means that the market will _always_ move in such a way as to cause maximum pain to as many market participants as possible.  So if a scenario looks highly likely - like last night's shorts - maybe these are good trades to avoid.  The market won't permit a lot of people winning.  It will only permit about 10% of 'chosen ones' to win.  Getting to know the beast.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2022)

Will try to short ES off 3850, but it's gotta get back up there.  At the moment, it looks like it's just going to continue to grind down.  There's been no short entry position this morning that I could see.

HSI opens lower!  The stinker keeps on stinkin'.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2022)

I can't code this system exactly, but I've been able to get pretty close over the last few days.  It's been worth doing.  One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to get a profitable short system backtest!  So much so that I'm considering making this long-only.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2022)

There's 3850 (ES), but I'm not taking shorts until I can figure out how to do it and make money.

HSI finally started to pump.  Biggest up day in ages, so will hold.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 October 2022)

Long ES


----------



## Captain_Chaza (27 October 2022)

Have you got any Money Left? To do this Trade?
My reckonings show that you have been stopped out too many times!
These are not FREE
How Many Losses do you have  to have  Before you go down with the ship?

Unless you start to do " Paper Trading"  You will never know where you stand

From my experience
This usually takes about 3 years
However
If you take the Fundamentalist's approach
They say ,You can do it in 3 days

All you need is
Great  Preparation  and  Lots of Luck


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 October 2022)

Price went close to stop, then back to entry price = break even on this trade.



Gringotts Bank said:


> Long ES
> 
> View attachment 148518


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 October 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Have you got any Money Left? To do this Trade?
> My reckonings show that you have been stopped out too many times!
> These are not FREE
> How Many Losses do you have  to have  Before you go down with the ship?
> ...



Why are you trying to pull people down?  I don't even know you, and you don't know me.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 October 2022)

Been backtesting this using AB and Tradingview.  Quite a task for me as a non-programmer.

Finding out a few things not obvious to eyeball testing, especially the importance of the higher TF as Mod said.  And I think in real trading I will make far fewer trades.

TV's backtester is accurate but not as good at AB, and Pinescript seems verbose compared to AFL.  You can't enter/exit at a specified buy or sellprice, only on the open of the next bar.  The equity curve only updates with straight lines, not per bar.

Will be nice if this one holds up in forward testing.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 October 2022)

Long Gold.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (31 October 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Long Gold.
> 
> View attachment 148673



*LONG at What price?
I LOVE to Watch!

*


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 October 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> *LONG at What price?
> I LOVE to Watch!
> View attachment 148676
> *



Yes, you seem like the sort of guy who likes to watch.  What drives that?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 November 2022)

Gold trade went 3/4 towards its target then reversed.  Break even.

The coded system I'm backtesting for gold was ok, but that's a different thing more in line with what I might do with real trading.  Much wider stops.  Backtesting of HSI makes me wonder how you'd ever trade such a contract.  It doesn't mean revert at all.  Oil similar, but at least it reverts a bit.  ES is still the best MR contract.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 November 2022)

Only ES and GC have proven profitable in backtesting (for me, with this approach), so will trade those contracts' signals from now on. Slightly different rules from the beginning of the thread.  Things were bound to change a bit.

Trade shown missed target by a few ticks, then reversed.  Another break even.

Watching *3736* level on ES to see how it behaves around there.  Weekly fair val gap.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 November 2022)

This level (3736) would be on a lot of traders' charts.  There's no stopping volume coming in yet.  So, it's looking quite bearish.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 November 2022)

ES long at 3744.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 November 2022)

ES still in play.  The system uses a very wide stop.

Long Gold.  T and S shown.  Gold system uses narrower stop.

Both systems have targets other than the profit level which are based on the FVGs overhead (purple lines).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 November 2022)

Win on GC trade.  That was quick.  The system tends to have much closer stops from the purple lines as the price rises.  One appeared, it was crossed from below, and I'm out.  19 ticks only.


----------



## rnr (4 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Win on GC trade.  That was quick.  The system tends to have much closer stops from the purple lines as the price rises.  One appeared, it was crossed from below, and I'm out.  19 ticks only.
> 
> View attachment 148827



And now on the way north again?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 November 2022)

rnr said:


> And now on the way north again?



Hopefully.

Just recently I've changed to trade the backtested system which is a bit different to the initial rules.  Only ES and gold.

With the system described in the first post of this thread, I think I was ahead by a small margin when I stopped.  Backtesting helped uncover some issues and I'm now trading an improved version.

I'm still not settled on something I'd trade live yet.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> ES long at 3744.
> 
> 
> View attachment 148809



ES trade closed for a win.  Wide stops helped here.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2022)

There were two other quick trades in gold.  One small loser, one win.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 November 2022)

Another two profitable gold trades whilst asleep.

Raises the question - how the heck am I going to trade any of these systems?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 November 2022)

Long ES


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2022)

W


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2022)

54 ticks of *pure market manipulation* seconds before the news is released. Try to explain that 54 tick dump some other way - it can't be done.  It's cheating,... on a big scale.

The people who run the world, also run the markets.  They know everything ahead of time, because they actually plan it.  "Run it down and grab that liquidity".  They use the news, wars and politics to give "justification" to the moves that play out.  The whole thing is rigged.  Luckliy for us, they leave footprints in the charts. 

This is not an exception - it happens all the time.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2022)

What about the news itself?  I tend to think it's all rigged.

Take the CPI figures.  Can you check them yourself?  Nope.  Can you put in a FOI request to see the raw data?  I doubt it.  If you even got hold of the raw data, would you know what to do with it?  I wouldn't know where to start!  And who checks on the people who hand down the final figure?  Anyone?  We'll never know the answer to that question.  Essentially, they are free to make up whatever number they like in order to move the market towards their next pre-determined level.  And I believe this is exactly what happens.  Wherever large sums of money are flowing, there will be big boys with their snouts in the trough, manipulating the game.

Reminds me of the recent flood relief package the govt organized.  This one _was_ eventually checked, but only because the amount of money that was flowing out of govt coffers was many, many times above what was expected.  Turns out some crooks were submitting blank application forms and getting approved for govt payments.  Yep - blank forms.

So whenever I hear the news, I take it with several grains of salt.  Big players have used the media for their own ends since.... probably about the 1930's (?) or so.  A long time, anyway.  It works so well because most people believe what they see and hear on the news.

Unemployment is down 2%!  Really?  Just before an election?  Petrol prices set to rise due to supply chain concerns.  Really?

Always ask:*  Cui bono?*


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 November 2022)

Gold entering overbought, and there's a huge amount of buying imbalance in the last week, on all TFs (thick blue lines).  That will need rebalancing.

I don't know what drives metals prices.  But technically, I think the max upside for this swing would be 1800.  Probably will retreat b4 that.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 November 2022)

Just realized all this talk of manipulation doesn't serve me.  I must stop that - it's a bad habit.

Some potential paths for ES.  No trades at present.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2022)

Long ES.  The system has a dynamic target and a fixed target of 0.75%.  Fixed target is visible as the green horiz line.  Finally got that plotted (thanks for the reminder ).  The stop is just under 3900.

Hope I can trade this for real one day soon.  Would be nice to get off my L-plates after so many failed attempts to trade indices.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2022)

W  120 ticks


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2022)

Gold looking bearish right now.  Big volume spikes failing to make new highs.  Will drop to 1732 from here, I think.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (16 November 2022)

I Don't think!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> I Don't think!
> View attachment 149326
> 
> View attachment 149327



Yes I'm watching and re-assessing.

Maybe the 3 big imbalances signal the start of a huge move.  Never seen them before.


----------



## Roller_1 (16 November 2022)

dump on the cards i think. I'm short from 4011 (ES)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 November 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> dump on the cards i think. I'm short from 4011 (ES)



That's exactly where I would have entered short.  I still haven't figured out a good backtest for shorts yet, so I'm sitting them out.


----------



## Roller_1 (16 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> That's exactly where I would have entered short.  I still haven't figured out a good backtest for shorts yet, so I'm sitting them out.



4010 needs to hold the line here!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 November 2022)

1 & 4 hr chart to establish HTF trend.
Cumulative volume swings on the 5 min - check if this alings with the HTF trend.
Volume profile to find *low* value areas.  POC/value zones are not useful as far as I can tell.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 November 2022)

ES has been behaving for this style of system.

High *volume* swing - bulls in control.  Low *value* area indicates imbalance which will be revisited, but defended, providing long entry opportunity.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 November 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> 4010 needs to hold the line here!



that was a very nice entry.  Are you targeting 3500?


----------



## Modest (18 November 2022)

ES


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 November 2022)

Modest said:


> ES
> 
> View attachment 149402



Please show your working for full marks.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 54 ticks of *pure market manipulation* seconds before the news is released. Try to explain that 54 tick dump some other way - it can't be done.  It's cheating,... on a big scale.
> 
> The people who run the world, also run the markets.  They know everything ahead of time, because they actually plan it.  "Run it down and grab that liquidity".  They use the news, wars and politics to give "justification" to the moves that play out.  The whole thing is rigged.  Luckliy for us, they leave footprints in the charts.
> 
> ...




Get your head out of the chart.

Before big news, participants withdraw liquidity, retail market orders stupid enough to trade in those moments gets weird fills. Some win, some lose.

It's not manipulation.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 November 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> dump on the cards i think. I'm short from 4011 (ES)




🤔

what if 4200 tho?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 November 2022)

Some backtests.

ES, 5 min, 1 contract, brokerage $5, no slippage.

Top pic:  Approx 4 months, in sample.
Bottom pic: 1 month, out-of-sample.

The metrics of the OOS are roughly lining up with the IS.  Similar shape, similar WR and max DD.  I wouldn't want too many losing trades in a row however.  Feels like it could blow up if that happened.


----------



## Roller_1 (20 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> that was a very nice entry.  Are you targeting 3500?



My entry was at the red line but I got stopped out of breakeven. I had to leave the office so I put my stop there but it got hit unfortunately. Green lines were the targets. 

I have been trying a few different things on ES as I'm not actively trading it, mainly just in the evenings and afternoons if i see something i like. But if I get my first target then I have been setting a auto stop to trail behind price a certain # of ticks. Trying to capture some outsized gains.

3500 is a long way off? just shorter swings for me


----------



## Modest (21 November 2022)

Dow at a crucial level of resistance if they dump it in todays session it will bring ES down with it. I am watching to get short... Patience pays


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Gold looking bearish right now.  Big volume spikes failing to make new highs.  Will drop to 1732 from here, I think.
> 
> View attachment 149323



Are you allowed to quote yourself when you make a good call?  Modest, I am not.

"Will drop to 1732 from here, I think".

I know, I know... put your money where your mouth is, or shuddup.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just realized all this talk of manipulation doesn't serve me.  I must stop that - it's a bad habit.
> 
> Some potential paths for ES.  No trades at present.
> 
> View attachment 149260



Following one of those lines, almost exactly.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2022)

ES had a huge burst of selling right near yesterday's close.  Wouldn't be surprised if it dumps tonight.


----------



## Modest (23 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> ES had a huge burst of selling right near yesterday's close.  Wouldn't be surprised if it dumps tonight.



Let’s hope so sir!

Russell and NQ looking weak. Dow at resistance if it’s going to dump it’s going to be here


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 November 2022)

4018 looking like a good spot to short, if it gets there.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (23 November 2022)

So nobody looking for 4200?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 November 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> So nobody looking for 4200?



Shorting is hard!  4018 was a nice entry, but it won't be something I do in real trading.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 November 2022)

Down 41 ticks immediately prior to the news, then it rips 177 ticks.   1pm NY time.  

YM 1 min.


----------



## Modest (24 November 2022)

I’ve entered short today on the edges so nice tight stop.

Are you trading live GB?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (24 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Down 41 ticks immediately prior to the news, then it rips 177 ticks.   1pm NY time.
> 
> YM 1 min.
> 
> ...




Again, you are bound to see this kind of price action around news events, but don't read into it. Participants withdraw liquidity, prices can get thrown very around easily on a few dumb market orders. It'd be a mistake to read into it, IMHO.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 November 2022)

Modest said:


> I’ve entered short today on the edges so nice tight stop.
> 
> Are you trading live GB?



nope.  Got a few steps to complete, including some more time paper trading.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 November 2022)

I've decided I want to trade ES, YM and FESX.

At this early stage of development, a guaranteed stop loss seems pretty important, and I can only get that by trading index CFDs.  I think CMC will be ok.  The CMC platform is very basic, but intuitive and easy to use.  Anyone who has used CMC for CFDs -  what did you think?

The systems I've developed really need to be automated.  This is my biggest sticking point.  With TV you can't automate index systems, only FX and crypto.  I've had a look at SierraChart and it's amazing for automation, but then no guaranteed stop losses.  Right now it seems my only option is to set alerts, but the thought of being woken up in the night to place a trade is very unappealing.  Initially I thought it would be ok to trade 6pm-1am Sydney time, but I'm not getting the juicy trades.

Stumped.  Any suggestions welcome.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've decided I want to trade ES, YM and FESX.
> 
> At this early stage of development, a guaranteed stop loss seems pretty important, and I can only get that by trading index CFDs.  I think CMC will be ok.  The CMC platform is very basic, but intuitive and easy to use.  Anyone who has used CMC for CFDs -  what did you think?




From memory, IG also offers GSLs.

That said, I doubt you can be profitable using them.



Gringotts Bank said:


> The systems I've developed really need to be automated.  This is my biggest sticking point.  With TV you can't automate index systems, only FX and crypto.  I've had a look at SierraChart and it's amazing for automation, but then no guaranteed stop losses.  Right now it seems my only option is to set alerts, but the thought of being woken up in the night to place a trade is very unappealing.  Initially I thought it would be ok to trade 6pm-1am Sydney time, but I'm not getting the juicy trades.
> 
> Stumped.  Any suggestions welcome.




Why do you thinkTradingView can't automate index vs FX/crypto?

Anyway, don't brokers like Pepperstone offer MT4/MT5 and all the usual CFDs?

On the matter of CFDs at all...you do you...but to me it seems insane to trade CFDS intraday or swing. OANDA is what, 0.4 point spread on the SPX500USD CFD.

That's 0.8 points per round trip. After a hundred trades you will be -80 points.

That is a lot of drag on expectancy.

To me, the only sane thing to do if you think you can profit from intraday or swing moves consistently is to have a futures account with a broker like Interactive Brokers and use limit orders to minimise your drag.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 November 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> From memory, IG also offers GSLs.
> 
> That said, I doubt you can be profitable using them.
> 
> ...



I'm concerned about major world events causing a sudden 5% drop on indices.  If there's some sort of problem with your broker, internet, platform, or maybe even the exchange, it might blast through your stop then what?  That's why I want guaranteed SL.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm concerned about major world events causing a sudden 5% drop on indices.  If there's some sort of problem with your broker, internet, platform, or maybe even the exchange, it might blast through your stop then what?  That's why I want guaranteed SL.




You are over leveraged if a 5% drop is that big of a problem.


----------



## DaveTrade (26 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm concerned about major world events causing a sudden 5% drop on indices.  If there's some sort of problem with your broker, internet, platform, or maybe even the exchange, it might blast through your stop then what?  That's why I want guaranteed SL.



@Gringotts Bank have you thought about trading options, it's the only thing that gives you a hard stop-loss. The other reason why I went to options is the leverage that you get more than compensates for any exchange rate loss.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 November 2022)

Good point @DaveTrade at least for ES and YM there are now 0DTE options that have quickly become quite liquid.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 November 2022)

DaveTrade said:


> @Gringotts Bank have you thought about trading options, it's the only thing that gives you a hard stop-loss. The other reason why I went to options is the leverage that you get more than compensates for any exchange rate loss.



Options on futures isn't something I've ever looked at.  Thanks for the suggestion.  I'm a bit hesitatnt to change everything at this point, but maybe it's needed. 

[edit] - Just had a read.  The way they do it doesn't fit with my current system.  Worth a look but prob not going to be an option for me.


----------



## Modest (28 November 2022)

CMC CFD is fine I’ve had an account with them for ages. Not sure if it would be good if you’re scalping. You may be better off Futures but trading the Micro contracts instead Micro ES MES is $1.25 per tick…

Still waiting for the big dump.
This morning has been promising though


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## Gringotts Bank (28 November 2022)

Modest said:


> CMC CFD is fine I’ve had an account with them for ages. Not sure if it would be good if you’re scalping. You may be better off Futures but trading the Micro contracts instead Micro ES MES is $1.25 per tick…
> 
> Still waiting for the big dump.
> This morning has been promising though



Thanks.  I suppose 40 ticks scalping.

CL looking like it's on support.


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## Gringotts Bank (29 November 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks.  I suppose 40 ticks scalping.
> 
> CL looking like it's on support.



CL *was* on support!

My paper trading account (a proper one) is up 10% since beginning 2 weeks ago.  However the markets have been extremely bullish.  I need to see how it goes when the dump happens.  Will it hold up?


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## Gringotts Bank (1 December 2022)

TOP!  That's the top on ES, imo.  Look at the volume at 8am our time - huge effort, no reward.  I reckon it could get down to 3648 in the long term.


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## InsvestoBoy (1 December 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> So nobody looking for 4200?




So nobody looking for 4200?


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## Gringotts Bank (1 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Down 41 ticks immediately prior to the news, then it rips 177 ticks.   1pm NY time.
> 
> YM 1 min.
> 
> ...



Happened again ...

30 ticks this time.  News regarding options hedging apparently.

Investoboy, if it's that liquidity dries up, why doesn't it ever gap up?  Always push down then up.


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## Gringotts Bank (2 December 2022)

Wyckoffian.


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## Gringotts Bank (2 December 2022)

Assessing the health of ES.


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## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2022)

A good chunk of Monopoly money made on this trade.  Picked the top within a few ticks.



Gringotts Bank said:


> TOP!  That's the top on ES, imo.  Look at the volume at 8am our time - huge effort, no reward.  I reckon it could get down to 3648 in the long term.




If it continues down and my system holds up I might consider trading real money.  I don't feel ready though.

Long FESX - target 3976


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## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2022)

FESX win


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## DaveTrade (3 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A good chunk of Monopoly money made on this trade.  Picked the top within a few ticks.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



@Gringotts Bank, if you don't feel ready now then when you are in a trade with real money this feeling will be much stronger. If you trade with real money while focusing on keeping  your risk light then this feeling (which is normal) will be greatly reduced and allow you to manage your trade well. Toe in the water while you get used the temperature.


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## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2022)

DaveTrade said:


> @Gringotts Bank, if you don't feel ready now then when you are in a trade with real money this feeling will be much stronger. If you trade with real money while focusing on keeping  your risk light then this feeling (which is normal) will be greatly reduced and allow you to manage your trade well. Toe in the water while you get used the temperature.



I'm quite comfortable with paper trading, but I don't feel ready to go live.

I'm doing a lot of work on the psychology side of things, having blown a few accounts up in the past.  So I'm familiar with the feeling!  I meditate every day and do other exercises around belief restructuring.  Most of my time is on that, actually.  
So yeh I have traded before.  Stocks, fututres.


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## Gringotts Bank (4 December 2022)

Knowing how to fully feel your emotions as you trade is critical. 

At each stage:

Watching the chart
Seeing the signal come up
clicking "buy"
immediately after buying -  this is a very important time to tune in to emotions, I think.
in-trade

Having a system that generates signals automatically is not going to remove emotions.  They will be influencing the mind at each stage and therefore influencing profits.  They have to be dealt with skillfully.

I believe we create profit and loss with the mind, not a system.  The Turtles experiment proved this, but I've seen it plenty of times in other situations. Psychology is the single most important factor in trading  - perhaps the only factor at play.  The advantage of having a system is that is reduces fear.  I like my system, I've put a lot of work into it, but I know its limits.

Real-time, in-trade meditation is the main tool.  Belief restructuring tends to happen automatically as a result of meditation.  If you know of a highly successful trader who doesn't meditate, all that means is that he's already meditating without knowing it.  You could call it "having good awareness".


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## Gringotts Bank (6 December 2022)

Slow decline now.  Could keep dropping slowly all week.  Once established, moves are much more prolonged they ever used to be, in both directions.


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Slow decline now.  Could keep dropping slowly all week.  Once established, moves are much more prolonged they ever used to be, in both directions.



Only with data from the past. 



> It is possible to live happily in the here and the now. So many conditions of happiness are available - more than enough for you to be happy right now. You don't have to run into the future in order to get more.
> 
> Thich Nhat Hanh




Although I'm a contrarian.

gg


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## Gringotts Bank (6 December 2022)

A bearish phase in the market needs a volatility contraction to start it off.  We're just starting to see that now, imo.


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## Modest (6 December 2022)

Time to crash Santa's sled


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## Gringotts Bank (7 December 2022)

On the way up, key levels are hit and respected.  On the way down, the price tends to avoid these same levels, both above and below.  It's the avoidance that causes the contraction in volatility... I think.

So ES may need to go up a bit and grab some liquidity tonight, but if it does it will try to avoid 4000.  Might get to say 3995 then start back down.

I used to get into shorts when momentum slowed and you could see the high volume absorption by sellers, but there's normally much lower risk entries 2 or 3 days later, after the initial sharp drop.


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## Modest (7 December 2022)

Yes ES is one of those instruments that doesn’t like leaving levels untested


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## Roller_1 (8 December 2022)

Modest said:


> Yes ES is one of those instruments that doesn’t like leaving levels untested




Unlike the Nikkei where a level has to be crossed 17 times before it chooses a direction lol


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## Roller_1 (8 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> after the initial sharp drop.



I've noticed the same, it's easy to get chopped up when it keeps peaking into new highs. really need too see the intent that it wants to drop then be patien enough to wait for a pull back


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## Modest (8 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Unlike the Nikkei where a level has to be crossed 17 times before it chooses a direction lol



Depends on TF

a weekly wicking down looks like one test on the weekly but on a 4hr or daily it’s wicked multiple times


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## Roller_1 (8 December 2022)

Yes, good point. See the forest through the trees or whatever the saying is. 

Long ES boys taking a punt to 3950ish


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## Gringotts Bank (8 December 2022)

Hey it's coming up to Christmas.  So the oil companies will want to take advatntage of the period where people are driving more.  CL to surge! What news story will they use to mask their intent?  Something to do with Ukraine no doubt.


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## Gringotts Bank (8 December 2022)

Santa is buying oil right now, by the looks of things.  Look at him go.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2022)

Oh wait.  Oil pumping... because of easing concerns about Chinese economy!  Hahah!

Straight lined it up to the daily FVG.


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## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> On the way up, key levels are hit and respected.  On the way down, the price tends to avoid these same levels, both above and below.  It's the avoidance that causes the contraction in volatility... I think.
> 
> So ES may need to go up a bit and grab some liquidity tonight, *but if it does it will try to avoid 4000. * Might get to say 3995 then start back down.
> 
> I used to get into shorts when momentum slowed and you could see the high volume absorption by sellers, but there's normally much lower risk entries 2 or 3 days later, after the initial sharp drop.



Back at 4000, which for me means the short position is potentially finished.


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## Roller_1 (9 December 2022)

Current contract not there yet, rollover isn't until 16th?


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## Roller_1 (9 December 2022)

are you looking at trading view continuous contract? i see that has changed/gapped


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## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> are you looking at trading view continuous contract? i see that has changed/gapped



Yes I am.  I'm a bit confused by it all.  How can they be so different?


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## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes I am.  I'm a bit confused by it all.  How can they be so different?



Right now I can buy a CFD at *3971* on CMC.  So....

sratching my head.  I thought the rollover date was today?

[edit - it's Dec 16]....hmm


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## Roller_1 (9 December 2022)

IB sym info below. idk honestly i get confused every 3 months


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## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> IB sym info below. idk honestly i get confused every 3 months
> 
> View attachment 150278



I wonder why TV has done that before the rollover date?

@Modest do you know how it works?

ESZ2022 is at  3974
ESH2023 is at  4005


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## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2022)

Have pretty much finished tweaking the algo.

A good book for the psychology aspect of trading below.  This is my main resource and daily practice at the moment.  Aiming to be more advanced in this aspect before going live.  Got some other refs if anyone interested. 

The Untethered Soul - The Journey Beyond Yourself.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> On the way up, key levels are hit and respected.  On the way down, the price tends to avoid these same levels, both above and below.  It's the avoidance that causes the contraction in volatility... I think.
> 
> So ES may need to go up a bit and grab some liquidity tonight, *but if it does it will try to avoid 4000.  Might get to say 3995 then start back down.*
> 
> I used to get into shorts when momentum slowed and you could see the high volume absorption by sellers, but there's normally much lower risk entries 2 or 3 days later, after the initial sharp drop.



So I actually had that right.  Got confused by the roll over business.

Got to 3990, avoided the important 4000 level.  Actually still bearish.


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## Gringotts Bank (11 December 2022)

Looking at options for automation.  I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but it doesn't hurt to start doing some investigating.  It's the end goal, after all.

Seems like you can use buy/sell alerts from your TV code to create 'webhooks' that send orders to MT5.  So I'd need a futs broker that offers MT5. There are other options for automation, but this seems the most easy to set up.  Has anyone hee done this?  What's your experience?


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## Gringotts Bank (13 December 2022)

+11.6% at the 3 week mark.  I can't plot the equity curve bc I can't download my trades on demo.  But it's a smooth line - that's the main thing.

I've broken the rules only a small number of times, and in a slight way.  For me, that's good - actually a huge improvement.  I put it down to the meditation.  Just got to keep at it.  There will be a point when I know I'm ready, but I can't estimate when that will be.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 December 2022)

ES appears strong, but unless it breaks 4000 (specifically, 4003!), I think a big red day is coming.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 December 2022)

CPI tonight, is that right?  I'm thinking they might use that to move it down to 3913.


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## Gringotts Bank (13 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> ES appears strong, but unless it breaks 4000 (specifically, 4003!), I think a big red day is coming.



Kablamo!  It took out 4003.  So with my system (which may be wrong), going through 4003 means the bear phase is finished.  So if the price drops with the CPI, I'll use it to buy.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 December 2022)

Bear phase finished!
How was that little pump a few mins before the news release?


If we're back in a bull market, they may use FOMC tomorrow to grab some more liquidity.  If they don't, it may be difficult to get a position.


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## Roller_1 (14 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Bear phase finished!
> How was that little pump a few mins before the news release?
> 
> 
> If we're back in a bull market, they may use FOMC tomorrow to grab some more liquidity.  If they don't, it may be difficult to get a position.




I'm not sold, eyeing off 4082 for big short


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## DaveTrade (14 December 2022)

For your interest, I don't day trade.



Take a Look at This Fed-Based Trade - Trade of the Day


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## InsvestoBoy (14 December 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> So nobody looking for 4200?




4180, close enough...


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## Gringotts Bank (14 December 2022)

DaveTrade said:


> For your interest, I don't day trade.
> View attachment 150452
> 
> 
> Take a Look at This Fed-Based Trade - Trade of the Day



Thanks.  If he'd done that same trade set up with the CPI he would have lost a bundle!


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## Gringotts Bank (14 December 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> 4180, close enough...



You've been on that number for a while.  What method are you using?


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## Roller_1 (15 December 2022)

Nice leg down at moment


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## Gringotts Bank (15 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Nice leg down at moment
> 
> View attachment 150514



It's looking very weak across all indices.  Narrow channel.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 December 2022)

I didn't notice at the time, but there was a *huge* volume swing downwards around midday (our time) on ES.  Looking quite ugly now.  3912 looking likely.


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## eskys (16 December 2022)

So, it wasn't just me who missed that information. I only found out after market closed yesterday. Didn't look at the graph in detail but had a feeling things were going a bit off colour after lunch.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 December 2022)

eskys said:


> So, it wasn't just me who missed that information. I only found out after market closed yesterday. Didn't look at the graph in detail but had a feeling things were going a bit off colour after lunch.



Your subconscious can pick up tons of information in a split second.  That's where the feeling comes from (and why trading psychology is so important, IMO). 

There was the typical directionless but 'tight' price action.
Several areas of high consecutive red bar count.
Several areas of high volume in downswings _without recovery_.

Aside from the red bar count, the other two I haven't been able to code.  But I can see them.


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## Roller_1 (16 December 2022)

Trading psychology is an interesting topic. But in the end it comes down to edge, you can have the best psychology in the world but you can't make a losing strategy a winner. You could have a strategy with massive edge but executed with terrible psychology and still have a winning formula

But then the next step gets messy. How can you accurately test a discretionary trading strategy to know that it has positive edge if you have bad psychology? With a systematic strategy it is relatively straightforward, do the testing accurately and without bias and then apply it as it should be. Not that that is easy but you should have the edge part figured out.
But with a discretionary strategy, you have to test your theory accurately to know if it has edge. But to do this you have to have good discipline and psychology.


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## eskys (16 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Your subconscious can pick up tons of information in a split second.  That's where the feeling comes from (and why trading psychology is so important, IMO).
> 
> There was the typical directionless but 'tight' price action.
> Several areas of high consecutive red bar count.
> ...



 If we follow the market closely, we feel the under currents.

By the way, I found out this morning that the dip yesterday was because of China's economic data. Was on Commsec's closing report yesterday by Steven Daglain..........Commsec has pre market and closing report each day. Find it informative and certainly helpful. News also on investing.com


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## Gringotts Bank (16 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Trading psychology is an interesting topic. But in the end it comes down to edge, you can have the best psychology in the world but you can't make a losing strategy a winner. You could have a strategy with massive edge but executed with terrible psychology and still have a winning formula
> 
> But then the next step gets messy. How can you accurately test a discretionary trading strategy to know that it has positive edge if you have bad psychology? With a systematic strategy it is relatively straightforward, do the testing accurately and without bias and then apply it as it should be. Not that that is easy but you should have the edge part figured out.
> But with a discretionary strategy, you have to test your theory accurately to know if it has edge. But to do this you have to have good discipline and psychology.



I think our subconscious beliefs will determine the outcome no matter what approach we use, even if it's 100% systematic.

Trading with 100% discretion is just about feeling out the market and responding.  Your edge is your ability to be in tune with what you feel.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 December 2022)

*ES.*  8:01am our time, big volume swing once again.  100x usual.  Was it bid or ask?  Without being able to see inside the 1 min bars, I have no idea.  This is the big advantage of platforms like SierraChart.  Their tick volume studies are the best in the business.


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## Roller_1 (16 December 2022)

I have never traded ES during its regular market hours but the speed at which moves and the amount of points it covers even during our afternoon/evening is so much more than the Nikkei. There is a lot lot of money to be both made and lost in a short amount of time. I was hoping it was going to push up to that level identified a couple of days ago during our afternoon so I could get a position on in my live account, get the stop to break even and just let it go. Unfortunately it did it overnight our time… oh well

I've been sitting in a short on the Nikkei all day but I made more money on the ES in a couple of hours. Obviously it is pretty volatile at the moment but with a similar amount of risk you can get a lot more bang for your buck.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 December 2022)

That should be the bottom at *3850*, though no buy signals yet.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 December 2022)

Long FESX 3792.


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## eskys (17 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *ES.*  8:01am our time, big volume swing once again.  100x usual.  Was it bid or ask?  Without being able to see inside the 1 min bars, I have no idea.  This is the big advantage of platforms like SierraChart.  Their tick volume studies are the best in the business.
> 
> View attachment 150551



I thought this had something to do with the option expiry date, GB. Could be wrong there.


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## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2022)

TV would be a great platform if it stored historical tick, bid-ask data.  As it is, you have to use clunky workarounds.  Very difficult to see whether the instos are buying or selling.

Aside from SierraChart, are there any decent platforms which cater to order flow analysis?


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## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2022)

I dreamt the market was going to crash last night.  Not a coincidence - happens to lots of people.  This is the power of the subconscious.  It knows infinitely more than the conscious mind, and therfore knows how it's all going to play out.  Accessing that subconscious information is another matter entirely, but a trader who can access and trade from this subconscious knowing is far better placed than the best systems trader.  Soros could do it.  

Aside from the occasional dream, I can't do it, but that's the aim.  Sticking with my system for now.  Anyone dreamt of market movements that proved correct?


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## eskys (20 December 2022)

GB, it wasn't obvious but the undercurrents were there........did a trade on SHV this morning, sold some cap notes, both gone backwards now.....too scared to buy in..........I've lost my nerve......what a shame


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## Roller_1 (20 December 2022)

What are your thoughts on ES? I'm looking for potential support to come in around the shaded area and a bounce. But there is a lot of momentum heading down and so definitely not convinced. Need to see some chop come in on the way down or a flush into it


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## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> What are your thoughts on ES? I'm looking for potential support to come in around the shaded area and a bounce. But there is a lot of momentum heading down and so definitely not convinced. Need to see some chop come in on the way down or a flush into it
> 
> View attachment 150699




Looks bad.  5 red days and narrowing volatility.


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## Roller_1 (20 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looks bad.  5 red days and narrowing volatility.



narrowing vol? you seen the last hourly bar?


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## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> narrowing vol? you seen the last hourly bar?



I meant on the daily.


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## Roller_1 (20 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> What are your thoughts on ES? I'm looking for potential support to come in around the shaded area and a bounce. But there is a lot of momentum heading down and so definitely not convinced. Need to see some chop come in on the way down or a flush into it
> 
> View attachment 150699



Momentum slowed coming into it and a nice bounce. Was hoping for a retest to enter but none. 

A few more levels marked up. probably won't be trading them though


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## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2022)

My best system - FDAX - is holding up ok in the downswing (blue line is buy-and-hold).  But obviously potential for wipeout if there were too many more big losers like recently.

Profit (green) vs max in-trade drawdown (purple) was looking very healthy until recently.  I suppose it's ok for it to look like this when the markets get wrecked (??).


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## Roller_1 (21 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> Momentum slowed coming into it and a nice bounce. Was hoping for a retest to enter but none.
> 
> A few more levels marked up. probably won't be trading them though
> 
> View attachment 150713




Would've played out nicely


----------



## Roller_1 (21 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> My best system - FDAX - is holding up ok in the downswing (blue line is buy-and-hold).  But obviously potential for wipeout if there were too many more big losers like recently.
> 
> Profit (green) vs max in-trade drawdown (purple) was looking very healthy until recently.  I suppose it's ok for it to look like this when the markets get wrecked (??).
> 
> View attachment 150718



what period did you test over? and over various market conditions?


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## Gringotts Bank (21 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> what period did you test over? and over various market conditions?



49 trades over about 1 month.  The bulk of it is out-of-sample.  On a small TF, they only give you so much data.


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## Roller_1 (21 December 2022)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 49 trades over about 1 month.  The bulk of it is out-of-sample.  On a small TF, they only give you so much data.



imo you need 100s of trades over lots of market conditions. After watching the nikkei yesterday i could never trade systematically on futures


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## Gringotts Bank (23 December 2022)

Interesting how FESX bottomed last night.

Equivolume bars and swing volumes shown.  There were 4 successive falls in downswing volume:  257, 103, 34, 17.  Followed by a steep angle of attack of the upswing highlighted just before 6am.

Also check the upswing of 4690 contracts just after 3am.  Huge volume did not achieve a higher high.  Big effort, no reward, so it continues lower.


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## Modest (23 December 2022)

The next stop for Santa’s billowing black smoke , bullet  ridden sled is 3750ish on ES


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## Roller_1 (23 December 2022)

Modest said:


> The next stop for Santa’s billowing black smoke , bullet  ridden sled is 3750ish on ES



Did you hold over this bounce going for a swing Mod or take some off of the retest of 3795ish area last night?


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## Modest (23 December 2022)

I covered the short once this morning bounce price got above 20th Dec low. 

ES here now at 3855 R could dump from here to test that low


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## Roller_1 (23 December 2022)

Modest said:


> I covered the short once this morning bounce price got above 20th Dec low.
> 
> ES here now at 3855 R could dump from here to test that low



if it breaks here 3871 for a test?


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## Modest (23 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> if it breaks here 3871 for a test?



Yes!


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## Roller_1 (27 December 2022)

Roller_1 said:


> if it breaks here 3871 for a test?




Anyone get a short off 3871? a nice 50 point drop off the initial touch!


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## Gringotts Bank (3 January 2023)

Using ChatGPT to code a trading system.  He calls it a "robust, profitable system" - clearly it's neither of these, but that's beside the point really.

What happens when ChatGPT is in its 100th iteration and it's mega-smart?  Probably you'll pay a small fee to use it, but what happens when millions of people can ask it to create a highly profitable trading system from scratch?  Because that's what we're looking at down the track.

"ChatGPT, write me a code for a trading system that has a 30%pa average return (in walk forward mode) over the last 5 yrs".  It will return something like what Jim Simons spent decades creating.  And it will do it in seconds.

"ChatGPT, send me an alert when the market has changed regime, and automatically switch to the corresponding trading system".

"ChatGPT, tell me when Soros is going to short the dollar, based upon everything you know about him and his method of speculation".

2023-24 will see some incredible breakthroughs in AI that will take us all by surprise.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 January 2023)

Not trading related, but interesting nonetheless.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 January 2023)

Been looking over some recent and not so recent posts I've made about market manipulation and the big players (banks, instos).  Also looking at others' responses.  My opinion hasn't changed - it definitely occurs.  Where I've changed is that I no longer believe it's an excuse. The only barriers to fortune are internal / psychological.  No external barriers exist.


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## Roller_1 (3 January 2023)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Been looking over some recent and not so recent posts I've made about market manipulation and the big players (banks, instos).  Also looking at others' responses.  My opinion hasn't changed - it definitely occurs.  Where I've changed is that I no longer believe it's an excuse. The only barriers to fortune are internal / psychological.  No external barriers exist.




I agree, there is nothing you can do about it if it does or doesn't exist that is not important. The important thing is finding edge and repeating it over and over. That is the hard part!

Or you just get hold of a few outsize winners on ES and let it ride!

Looking for a rip out of this accumulation area. Overall target is 3933 area but I will tighten stop if it gets up to 3915 to lock in some more profit


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 January 2023)

Roller_1 said:


> I agree, there is nothing you can do about it if it does or doesn't exist that is not important. The important thing is finding edge and repeating it over and over. That is the hard part!
> 
> Or you just get hold of a few outsize winners on ES and let it ride!
> 
> ...




"Let it ride".

Reminds me of Greg Riba!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (Saturday at 12:33 AM)

Performance during a bearish period and rebound on FESX.  System (green) versus index (blue line).   29 Nov til present.  2 contracts.  42 trades.

Max in-trade drawdown (purple) is double the net profit.  Not sure about that.


----------

