# Nickel? Or are ppl too consumed with Uranium



## chennyleeeee (8 October 2006)

One just has to look at the price of nickel and the stock reserves at the LME to realise that nickel is going to be as precious as Platinum. I've gathered some quick information and I found some enlightening revelations which I think I'll share with the rest of the uranium consumed population. 


June 8 - LME Nickel Stocks -   17448 @ US$/tonne 21,595.00
August 8 - LME Nickel Stocks -  5958 @ US$/tonne 28,050.00
October 5 - LME Nickel Stocks -  4782 @ US$/tonne 30,695.00

Nickel stocks are dwindling. Unlike most of the other base metals in the market Nickel is seriously depleting, BHP is falling because Copper prices are falling and copper stocks are replensihing. And since BHP is the second biggest company in Australia, its also bringing other companies down with it. So its bargain hunting time. I heard somewhere on the radio that with the amount of Nickel we have now, and if production was to stop we would only have 2 days supply. But that doesnt really tell us much.

Neways, I just thought this peice of information that I think most of you already know would be of interest to some of you.

Well dont take this as any sort of recommendation or investment advice though.


CHENNY


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## Halba (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

who knows may be china will ramp up their nickel production, or lower their steel usage

but the decline rate % is slowing down, suggesting ppl don't want to pay ridiculous prices for nickel, which under a normal situation is around US$10,000 a tonne 2 yrs back


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## brerwallabi (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

This is supposed to be secret along with zinc.
Now you have gone and told everybody.
I wonder if you realise that you will be responsible for the price action tomorrow morning in companies like SMY,AUZ,MRE,IGO and MCR.


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## mlennox (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

haha its far from a secret! but it is definately worth holding some of the aboved mentioned companies, SMY has had a 20% price increase in the last 2 weeks and hasn't had the recognition of the likes of MRE imho!


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## Halba (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

smy is hedged and has low mine life


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## nizar (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

Not just uranium but ZINC at least for the next 3-6months, then just uranium. IMO


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## scsl (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> This is supposed to be secret along with zinc.
> Now you have gone and told everybody.
> I wonder if you realise that you will be responsible for the price action tomorrow morning in companies like SMY,AUZ,MRE,IGO and MCR.



lol! Sharing is caring right?   

I've been looking to buy a nickel stock but the extraordinary run some of them have had in the past few weeks makes me afraid that I will be getting in at the top (for the time being). Also, with all the conflicting views on the state of the nickel market and where prices are headed, I think it's best to keep out atm. In particular, I read that less demand will see prices head towards $20,000.


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## nioka (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> smy is hedged and has low mine life



Not all SMY production is hedged and not forever. Increased production will come from THX leases shortly. I suggest THX be added to the list of nickel miners, I have held some THX for some time and they are showing a nice green balance Just as good as my SMY at this stage.


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## michael_selway (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



			
				chennyleeeee said:
			
		

> One just has to look at the price of nickel and the stock reserves at the LME to realise that nickel is going to be as precious as Platinum. I've gathered some quick information and I found some enlightening revelations which I think I'll share with the rest of the uranium consumed population.
> 
> 
> June 8 - LME Nickel Stocks -   17448 @ US$/tonne 21,595.00
> ...




Nono Nickel has been "fake buying" imo, dude you have to keep an eye on "ins". Its too regular thus excess supply coming from outside. Basically imo Nickel has peaked + speculation now (which can lift LME prices higher, but itwil short lived).







Also see below, LME price is not proportionate to LME stocks anymore, eg look how low LME stocks were in Jul 04 and July 05 and LME prices were about $8?







> *Nickel shortage? Not according to France’s Eramet Metals Insider - 8 September 2006 *
> 
> Not everyone is convinced that the recent liquidity squeeze on the London Metal Exchange””a direct function of historically low stock levels””was a reflection of the global market’s supply-demand dynamics. French producer Eramet warned in its H1 results released yesterday that “the physical market should be close to equilibrium in 2006, which could mean a return by nickel prices to lower levels at any time.” It attributes the recent surge in prices over July and August to “strong speculation”. This is in fact a repeat of what the company has already said several times in the last couple of months and it’s worth emphasising that Eramet’s is something of a minority view among nickel market analysts and producers. Canadian producer Inco has said it expects the market to record a deficit of 30,000t this year, while the World Bureau of Metal Statistics has estimated it recorded a 38,000t deficit in the first six months alone, although this is right at the top end of assessments to the best of our knowledge.




Unlike zinc price which more proportionate to LME stocks, also rarely any "ins" at all


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## radio-active man (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

Check out ALB for exposure to both Nickle and Uranium. SP has come off a bit lately and will not stay this low.


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## brerwallabi (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> smy is hedged and has low mine life




Yes I won't dispute that statement, but deep drilling could give further extensions of mine life and you forget that. Plenty of cash to further other exploration, got that $20m at a $1.25cps remember.
I'll bank a $1.60 thank you, if it reaches that high again.


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## Sodapop (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

While on the subject - AUZ seems to have been given a re-rate recently... I think it has been grossly undervalued for a while now and it looks like the market is ascribing a more appropriate price given it's producing assets and upside potential...  A smaller play than SMY but going forward - unhedged, and still only a $20m cap. with plenty of potential (imho)...


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## hector (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

Time to have another look at FCN?


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## rederob (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



> Today 04:43 PM
> michael_selway
> Nono Nickel has been "fake buying" imo, dude you have to keep an eye on "ins". Its too regular thus excess supply coming from outside. Basically imo Nickel has peaked + speculation now (which can lift LME prices higher, but itwil short lived).



What a load of unmitigated, unproven hogwash.
About time you put up or shut up, as misleading readers with nonsense makes you look quite foolish imho.
The "ins" continue to be overwhelmed by the *outs*, to the extent that we are the odd thousand tonnes away from nickel's record cyclical LME inventory low. The last 3 years data suggest this is true.
Speculation is alive and well in all the markets and to suggest its driving nickel prices when consumers are battling to land metal is somewhat fanciful.
If you really want to look at speculation driving a metal price higher, have a squizz at uranium over the last 2 years.


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## chennyleeeee (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> This is supposed to be secret along with zinc.
> Now you have gone and told everybody.
> I wonder if you realise that you will be responsible for the price action tomorrow morning in companies like SMY,AUZ,MRE,IGO and MCR.




Well since its a secret you seem to already know, it wouldnt surprise me that you have a vested interest in those companies either. And well being responsible for monday's price action then should I be expected a share of the gains. LOL 

But chances of gains in this market are volatile and somewhat ridiculous, who would expect BHP to have fallen so far. =\


CHENNY


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## chennyleeeee (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*

I'am concerned that Eramet made those comments earlier in the year though. Being a nickel producer and miner, its concerning to see them heralding the end of the Nickel cycle, you would think that they would hype up the market instead. Maybe they are trying to bring back stability into the market or maybe they have alterior motives for saying what they said.

Source: http://www.commodities-now.com/content/market-news/market-news-2006080142044.php?PHPSESSID=34967b...
On July 17, LME three-month nickel peaked at an all-time high of $27,000 a metric ton.

Eramet said it has hedged around 60% of its production for the second half of 2006 at an average price of $15,000/ton.

--> Maybe they just feel stupid for hedging.

That is concerning.


CHENNY


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## michael_selway (8 October 2006)

*Re: Nickel ? Or Are Ppl Too Consumed with Uranium*



			
				chennyleeeee said:
			
		

> I'am concerned that Eramet made those comments earlier in the year though. Being a nickel producer and miner, its concerning to see them heralding the end of the Nickel cycle, you would think that they would hype up the market instead. Maybe they are trying to bring back stability into the market or maybe they have alterior motives for saying what they said.
> 
> Source: http://www.commodities-now.com/content/market-news/market-news-2006080142044.php?PHPSESSID=34967b...
> On July 17, LME three-month nickel peaked at an all-time high of $27,000 a metric ton.
> ...




Hm $15000/ton is kind of low one would think? They must think there is alot downside to Nickel Price

Around $25000/ton hedged is about right atm imo

thx

MS

*Forward Averages Oct 5 Oct 4 
Outright 2007 25299.5824814.58
Outright 2008 21004.5820709.58*



> Nickel Mkt In Balance To Small Surplus In 2H '06 - Eramet
> 
> London, Aug 01 2006
> 
> ...


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