# Trading big figures



## darkhorse70 (7 February 2016)

Does any one here trade big figure releases like the NFP (using the DOM/Market Flow) seconds after the figures are released.

I got smashed on Friday night, timing was off but im wondering what the consistently profitable traders on here do. I know it can be really volatile and hard to manage a situation when the markets are flying around bid, then offered.

I think I should have waited a few more mintues before jumping in but yeah wondering on any ones thoughts on that? Is it usually a suicidal move as big traders might be loading and unloading positions and pretty much just chaos?

Im planning on trading it again as there looks to be heaps of easy opportunities but it takes xp like every thing else.


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## captain black (7 February 2016)

darkhorse70 said:


> Does any one here trade big figure releases like the NFP (using the DOM/Market Flow) seconds after the figures are released.
> 
> I got smashed on Friday night, timing was off but im wondering what the consistently profitable traders on here do. I know it can be really volatile and hard to manage a situation when the markets are flying around bid, then offered.
> 
> ...




I tend to be flat going into any market moving announcements with a set release time. I'll certainly look for opportunities once the figures are released. Often get a wide ranging bar on the release, what happens after that can often be a high probability set up.


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## darkhorse70 (7 February 2016)

hmmm CB. Jumping on board as soon as possible after the release can mean the difference between a great entry price and a risky one. But theres also the possibility of going offside in a big way. I guess next time it will be trade 1 lot and possibly 2 by averaging in.


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## captain black (7 February 2016)

darkhorse70 said:


> Jumping on board as soon as possible after the release can mean the difference between a great entry price and a risky one. But theres also the possibility of going offside in a big way.




Yeh, it needs to be a high probability setup before I'll pull the trigger. If it doesn't scream out one way or the other and have somewhere I can manage it with a tight stop then I'll sit back and wait. I'm sure there are traders who thrive on trading the news events, but I see too much downside risk that can be avoided.

It's a quiet week next week for the Asian session with Chinese New Year but if I spot something around a news event I'll post a chart that might explain my thinking better.


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## darkhorse70 (8 February 2016)

Sounds good CB.

Yeah will be looking forward to one of your setups.

Hate holidays, makes everything boring lol.


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## captain black (8 February 2016)

I thought I'd post something from the Japanese negative rates announcement from the 29th Jan as we both got washed around in the early leak. The chart is a 2-minute on the Kospi.




This is a cleaned up version of the charts I use to trade with, don't want to give too much away 

The white coloured bars are high volume, the yellow bars are extreme volume. I use HLC bars, I've got no interest in where the bars open so I don't display it.

The high volume bars at 13:50 - 13:54 are where rumours of the negative rates were leaked. I got washed out on the 13:52 bar.

The actual announcement at 14:08 is followed by one of my signals of a blowoff top. I look to see what pattern sets up after that signal. 1st bar is down, another sign of weakness. Following 3 bars test 231.60 and fail. The next 2 bars at 14:20 and 14:22 trigger my short, with my stop above the high volume bar at 231.65.

This is a high probability set up, I'll let it ride until I get a signal like the high volume reversal at 14:48 and 14:50. I flip on the 14:50 bar and add another couple at the 15:10 bar where I get another signal of strength.


I closed the trade at the 15:46 bar which is another high volume reversal.


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## captain black (8 February 2016)

I should add that I'm in SA so all times are in SA time zone (Half hour behind NSW, Vic).


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## darkhorse70 (8 February 2016)

Nice CB. I like those candlesticks with the volume element. Also liked the fact you flipped after a profit and went the opposite way. 

At the current moment, I dont even use volume bars or any matter of volume for that matter. I should start paying more attention to it.

Are you trading at the moment as your sole source of income if you dont mind me asking?


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## captain black (8 February 2016)

darkhorse70 said:


> Are you trading at the moment as your sole source of income if you dont mind me asking?




Yeah, been trading full time for a few years. The MF Global bankruptcy in 2011 made me go back to work part-time for a few months as it was f**king with my head, but soon got over it and back into trading 

Before trading I spent about 20 years doing seasonal work full time. Anyone that complains about how hard their job is needs to go out and spend a summer picking fruit! 

Trading started as a part-time interest after I read one of Daryl Guppy's books in the 90's and gradually turned into a full time pursuit today.

I still go out occasionally and help with the citrus harvest, it's a great ego leveller and a reminder of what I'll be back doing if I don't manage risk properly!


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## captain black (8 February 2016)

darkhorse70 said:


> Also liked the fact you flipped after a profit and went the opposite way.




If the set up is there to flip a trade I'll take it, but more often than not I'll just close out a position and wait for another set up. Doing a lot of testing at the moment on adding to a position like I did on the 15:10 bar. My backup laptop has Amibroker explorations and analysis running 24x7 at the moment


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## darkhorse70 (8 February 2016)

captain black said:


> Yeah, been trading full time for a few years. The MF Global bankruptcy in 2011 made me go back to work part-time for a few months as it was f**king with my head, but soon got over it and back into trading
> 
> Before trading I spent about 20 years doing seasonal work full time. Anyone that complains about how hard their job is needs to go out and spend a summer picking fruit!
> 
> ...




haha, well I think working at a job which is slightly physical is good therapy, atleast mentally. However I'd only view at as some time off from sitting behind the computer. Ive never worked more than a year at a job and the rest have been part time here and there. 

I have a license for Amibroker but as I mentioned some where before, programming is a venture of its own and I dont have many ideas yet to program. The mind is flexible that im not sure any rigid systematic trading strategy can beat it. The only upside i see to systematizing a strategy would be to save time to trade other more complex systems. I think its a great tool to help give perspective though. I just need to figure out and devote time to it. Maybe one day when I start making some money from trading so I dont have to constantly worry about the prospect of my future.


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## ThingyMajiggy (8 February 2016)

captain black said:


> Before trading I spent about 20 years doing seasonal work full time. Anyone that complains about how hard their job is needs to go out and spend a summer picking fruit!




Haha amen to that cb! Hard work! Plenty to do in these Adelaide Hills too  

Yeah I also trade after big figures, plenty of opportunity there, plus you get those times where certain instruments will just be massively out of whack relative to others.


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## captain black (8 February 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Plenty to do in these Adelaide Hills too




Adelaide Hills are a nice part of the world 

I'm in the Riverland, I worked on a strawberry farm in Queensland for a couple of years and had planned to do a season or 2 on a strawberry farm in the Adelaide Hills but always had too much work here so never quite got there.


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## darkhorse70 (8 February 2016)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha amen to that cb! Hard work! Plenty to do in these Adelaide Hills too
> 
> Yeah I also trade after big figures, plenty of opportunity there, plus you get those times where certain instruments will just be massively out of whack relative to others.




Well I learnt a lesson from that one. I should have been cautious. It was at a high so longs might have been covering. Free experience is the best experience haha.


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## ThingyMajiggy (9 February 2016)

darkhorse70 said:


> Well I learnt a lesson from that one. I should have been cautious. It was at a high so longs might have been covering. Free experience is the best experience haha.




Huh? Did you have a trade like I mentioned? If so I had no idea, wasn't referring to your trades or anything, just going from my experience


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## minwa (10 February 2016)

NFP releases are really spiky and to me is usually just destroying stops both sides. I view intra day trading into it is gambling unless you have already have a established position far from current price.


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