# NXL - Nuix Limited



## System (26 November 2020)

Nuix is a leading provider of investigative analytics and intelligence software, with the vision of “finding truth in a digital world”.

Nuix was first conceptualised in the early 2000s, with the development in Australia of an algorithm to make unstructured data searchable and was first commercialised for a specific use case with an Australian government agency. Since then, Nuix has grown to provide its software to over 1,000 customers across 78 countries. It remains headquartered in Australia today, despite over 80% of Nuix's Total Revenue in FY20 being generated from markets in North America and EMEA.

The Nuix platform is underpinned by over 15 years of research and development, with over A$200 million of total research and development costs incurred by Nuix since 2008 (including both capitalised and expensed research and development spend), resulting in the creation of one of the world’s leading technologies for processing data at scale. Over the last five years in particular, Nuix has made significant investments in talent, process improvement, sales and marketing, acquisition integration and technology, and improving customer experience, while continuing to enhance the functionality of its platform.

Nuix generates revenue through a number of different software licensing models, predominantly through the sale of subscription licences. In FY20, the Company achieved:

A$175.9 million Total Revenue, an increase of 25.9% on the previous financial year (FY19: A$139.6 million);
subscription revenue equivalent to 88.7% of Total Revenue, an increase from 87.4% in FY19 and 80.8% in FY18; and    
a gross profit margin of 88.2% (FY19: 88.8%) and an EBITDA margin of 31.5% (FY19: 20.8%), on a pro forma basis.
It is anticipated that NXL will list on the ASX during December 2020.









						Nuix: Finding Truth in a Digital World
					

Nuix creates innovative software that empowers organizations to simply and quickly find the truth from any data in a digital world.




					www.nuix.com


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## Dona Ferentes (26 November 2020)

As the NXL float is coming off the Macquarie production line, there is a bunch of market chatter associated with it.



> Nuix is slated to come to  market with a $1.8 billion market capitalisation. The  company, which has grown to be one of the largest private Australian  software companies *despite a cofounder being sent to prison* before being acquitted for tax fraud, has created software which helps organisations identify patterns and trends from different types and formats of data, including unstructured data, which is generated by things such as social media, text documents and PDF files.  This type of  data does not fit neatly into a database table and is more challenging  to interpret. These data insights are generally applied to fields such as cyber security, risk and compliance, and fraud investigations.



Nuix  is raising $975.3 million; of this, $875.3 million will go to existing investors selling down, while $100 million will be injected into Nuix. *Macquarie, which owns more than 66 per cent of the business, will reduce its stake by more than half to 30 per cent.*

In  the year to June 30, Nuix recorded $175.9 million in revenue, up 25.9 per cent on the previous year. For the 2021 financial year, the business  forecast $193.5 million of revenue, implying a growth rate of 10 per  cent. The company has also forecast $63.6 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, on a pro forma basis.

Of company revenue, 80 per cent is generated offshore from North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The  bulk (70 per cent) of its annual contract value is generated by customers which have been using Nuix since 2016, or earlier, and the  business has a churn rate of only 4.7 per cent.

In its prospectus the company pinpointed possible cyber security breaches  and any churn in its existing customers as its biggest risks.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 December 2020)

NXL is hitting the boards today at 12:30pm. IPO price of *$5.31* sees it as a $1.8billion  company. 

Existing shareholders of Nuix have sold down $875 million worth of stock at the IPO price, and the company has raised another $100 million of new capital for the business to invest in growing into new verticals.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 December 2020)

here's the joke:


> Nuix is well-priced at $5.31 say fund managers. They point to the long-term prospects of the investigative analytics and intelligence software company, but aren't willing to hazard a guess as to how the stock will run on day one or over the first few months of trading.



My sources say all the _argy bargy _is because the big end of town couldn't get enough in their allocations, so the 'negatives' were all a game to get access to more  . We'll soon find out, the pre-opens are consistently high, now $9ish. 

15 mins to find out.


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## kenny (4 December 2020)

Looks like your sources were right @Dona Ferentes as the IPO day price seems supported at quite a premium ($8 ish with 2.77M bid side vs 440K sell side). Nearly $81M in trading volume.

How to value this?


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## InsvestoBoy (4 December 2020)

AFR has the market cap on close at ~$3b and the projected revenue for next FY is ~$200m...

Price/Sales of 15.

The game of paying crazy multiples for tech stocks continues.

I'll just leave this old quote from Scott McNealy (CEO of Sun Microsystems) in 2002 here, after the dot com bubble had burst:






__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				





> ...two years ago we were selling at 10 times revenues when we were at $64. At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? *Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?*


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## Huskar (5 December 2020)

Love that quote InvestoBoy, thanks for sharing!

I saw this IPO advertised on ASX website yesterday and had a little look into it. It is a quality business with +30% EBITDA margins and subscription business with renewing customers - most of whom are the big end of town (big 4 and the like) in their eDiscovery business.

I don't like the incentives/alignment post-listing, with all management selling down almost all their stakes, and the possibility that the former CEO - with whom NXL is litigating - could be owed 6% of equity which significantly dilutes current holders (as disclosed in the small print in the prospectus)! Market clearly discounting this risk and instead excited to be part of a quality growth company with good-looking runway in the global exuberance that is SaaS businesses. Could be interesting to see how this looks after 1-2 years when some of the risks have played out.


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## Dona Ferentes (5 December 2020)

Huskar said:


> . It is a quality business with +30% EBITDA margins and subscription business with renewing customers - most of whom are the big end of town (big 4 and the like) in their eDiscovery business.











						Who We Are
					

Nuix creates innovative software that empowers organizations to simply and quickly find the truth from any data in a digital world.




					www.nuix.com
				



It has more than 1000 customers in industries such as financial services, oil and gas and government. The $100 million raised through the IPO ($875.3 million went to existing investors selling down) will help it push into new verticals, including into the regulatory space, from traditional regulators into civil agencies, attorney generals and the military side.



> with all management selling down almost all their stakes ...



 Macquarie Group's remaining 30 per cent stake swelled from a $508 million valuation to more than $762 million on Friday. Held 63%, banked $566million selling a bit over HALF

Ms Schwartz and her husband Alan's growth capital firm Armitage Associates stake jumped from about $48 million to more than $71 million. These gains are in addition to $48 million cheque pocketed from reducing their stakes in the IPO. i.e. sold HALF


> Could be interesting to see how this looks after 1-2 years when some of the risks have played out



. It's not pets.com.... In 20 years time, it would be far more lucrative having NXL at A$8 than buying Alphabet, Google's parent, at US$1823 a share.

"Nuix started with a very simple idea: to make emails searchable.  Conventional thinking at the time was encapsulated in _"__Isn't that what  Google does?_" That typified conventional wisdom. We are now well  beyond that ambition and can successfully claim that we can make any  digital data searchable and in near real time ...and at a speed and scale  that is unmatched by anyone on the planet." Nuix co-_founder Tony Castagna_

... people I have spoken to that actually use Nuix rhapsodise about its search capabilities .... "It gives me what I want, rather than what Google wants."

The other aspect of Nuix is that it came out of intelligence communities, early days in Canberra. Less talked about, the Nuix business model precludes the sale of its data analytics software to Chinese controlled companies and Chinese government agencies.  Some of the largest customers for Nuix software are Western intelligence agencies who spend much of their time thinking about China's latest strategic move.

Nuix software engine can allow _prosecutors from police organisations or intelligence officers from spook organisations to find the truth in the data_. Digital forensics teams in law enforcement and intelligence agencies use the Nuix software to collaborate and share intelligence as well as to prosecute the fight against criminals terrorists and other _bad actors._ It is believed the software has been used to collect, preserve, analyse and store evidence of crimes and atrocities by Islamic State. The software can ingest large quantities of structured and unstructured data at high speed and review it quickly

It is an industry-leading platform, which has six patents that don't expire until between 2031 and 2035.  The  Nuix algorithm to make unstructured data searchable was first patented  in 2013. The company has since registered a further six core patents in  the US as well as 100 other patents of its unique IP.  (again, similar to pets.com)


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## galumay (5 December 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I'll just leave this old quote from Scott McNealy...




Yep, its a great quote and is a simple reminder of the continuing absolute disconnect between price and value in the tech sector of the current bubble market. No one remotely capable of analysing the financials of a business would pay the price that NXL is trading at, its a great business and has ongoing potential for growth, but paying too high a price for even the best business in the world is not good investing.

Regardless its entirely possible NXL will be $20 by the end of December given the current state of equity markets and the tech sector! 

Coincidentally I just finished ready Tweedy Browne's Letter to Shareholders, if you dont mind a bit of serious reading its got some great content about the current state of large Tech prices around the world. https://www.tweedy.com/resources/li...l Report and Shareholder Letter Sept 2020.pdf


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## InsvestoBoy (6 December 2020)

galumay said:


> Regardless its entirely possible NXL will be $20 by the end of December given the current state of equity markets and the tech sector!




Yeah.

If valuations were any limit on price then we would never see overvaluation (or undervaluation!).

The way I like to think about it is, like VIX which is the markets implied volatility for the next 21 days, short-hand valuation ratios are a way to gauge "market implied growth" (in EPS or revenue per share).

Market implied growth for growth stocks (mostly tech, but the same phenomenon is there for other growthy sectors and names) is so high!

MacroCharts on Twitter recently posted this chart from Ned Davis Research


as a possible explanation for this premium implied growth. Scarcity of revenue growth.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 December 2020)

I suspect there might be a few punters watching rather nervously?

_Since IPO, 5 minute chart:_


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## kenny (10 December 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I suspect there might be a few punters watching rather nervously?




And others waiting to enter, I'm sure. It's a stock that allows exposure into a sector with few options.

How does one value it, I'm not so sure.

i found this comment amusing. Mostly since it's a "Reasons to buy Nuix" article composed by the Seller;

Macquarie's analysts, spearheaded by Mitchell Sonogan and keen to point out that they were not part of the Macquarie unit that owns about a 65 per cent stake in Nuix, presented a list of nine reasons to buy shares in the company.

The reasons included:

_#1 High quality software business with a track record of growth

#2 The Nuix Engine is a key competitive advantage

#3 Scalable business with high incremental margins

#4 Attractive unit economics and growth outlook

#5 Leveraged to large and growing addressable markets

#6 Multiple opportunities for business growth and expansion

#7 High quality customer base, diversified by customer and geography

#8 Strong customer value proposition_

_#9 Impact of Covid-19 and potential opportunities_


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## galumay (11 December 2020)

That certainly looks like a holder's list of reasons to buy! 

None of that matters if it's overpriced, none of that matters if its significantly underpriced!


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## kenny (11 December 2020)

Agree @galumay It would still be nice to have some numbers to justify those reasons and help form a thesis.


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## IrishPride (5 January 2021)

I chose NXL because they’ve got some big time customers and should continue to acquire new ones.. unique sector as cyber security related businesses are only getting more in demand


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## Dona Ferentes (21 January 2021)

once things have settled down, the buyers seem to taking up more.

(_was interested to see, among the LICs, only MIR took up some at IPO, while the bigger players AFI and MLT didn't_)


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## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2021)

doing so well, until the numbers come out.

*Financial Highlights *
• _Revenue (statutory and pro forma) at $85.3m, down 4% yoy and 44% of FY21 forecast
• ACV (12 months ended 31 December 2020) at $162m, up 3% yoy 
• Pro forma EBITDA at $31.6m, up 3% due to strong profit margins; EBITDA margin up at 37%  
• Pro forma NPAT at $9.5m and 48% of FY21 forecast
• Statutory net loss after tax of $16.6m, or $0.06 on an EPS basis _


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## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2021)

closed on its lows .... 6.06 ..... down 32%


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## dyna (28 February 2021)

It's just so hard to pick where a bottom in the SP would be for a stock like this.Even if it dropped back to the $5.31 listing price,would it still hold up , if  or when ,the next nazdac blow up comes? I'm not up to it, so I'll just keep watching.It's not even attracting the sharp traders on this forum,so that's  enough reason to be wary, I think.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 March 2021)

NXL now under its* $5.31* issue price


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## kenny (4 March 2021)

Watching closely. For once, I tend to agree with this Motley Fool post;

[Snippet]

Nuix is a cheap technology share​Tribeca Investment Partners’ Alpha Plus portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu still has faith in Nuix.

“Our view of the stock remains positive. We believe the share price has been severely punished on small changes in revenue composition.”

She told The Motley Fool the Nuix share price is expected to head back up as the full-year results are delivered in August.

“This business is one of the cheapest tech businesses listed on the ASX. It’s trading at half of the revenue multiple as many major tech businesses, [but] with higher growth.”

Prime Value portfolio manager Richard Ivers is also still a believer.

“Long term it’s still an attractive business,” he told The Motley Fool.

“We didn’t get a great allocation in the IPO and didn’t chase the stock when it listed. So [we] haven’t owned it the last few months – still watching.”

Reasons for Nuix’s poor half-yearly result​Ivers acknowledged the first-half result was “disappointing”.

“The issue we are working to understand is the earnings profile and therefore the valuation of the business.”

Liu said that two factors had contributed to the half-year results coming in poorer than the prospectus revenue forecast.

“Firstly, the Australian currency has strengthened against the US dollar — and a big part of Nuix’s revenue is in US dollars,” she said.

“Secondly, the US election in November last year has disrupted the timing of contract awards (many of those missed contracts have now been signed in January). If you adjust for these two factors, the revenue was largely in line with forecasts.”

Only a couple of days before the half-yearly results, Morgan Stanley had put an overweight rating and a share price target of $11.00 on Nuix shares.


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## dyna (6 March 2021)

Those volumes say, it's Instos bailing out.You can almost hear them thinking"Maquarie sold us a pup.Let's take five bucks while we can get it.If this stinker comes good next year,we can always catch it again on the upside"


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## Dona Ferentes (8 March 2021)

dyna said:


> Those volumes say, it's Instos bailing out.  .....Let's take five bucks while we can get it. If this stinker comes good next year, we can always catch it again on the upside



tricky spot, when it's all about future growth and metrics that fit the occasion, rather than make a case for solidity. (or credibility, trust and transparency)

Following the Half Yearlies, CEO Rod Vawdrey _reaffirmed its full-year guidance and blamed the half-year revenue hiccup on currency movements, a resurgence of COVID-19 in key geographies and delays in contract signing given a longer-than-expected transition among government clients following the US election_.
(Three strikes, if you are counting)
Statutory revenue fell 3.9 per cent to $85.3 million and its pro forma net profit was $9.5 million.

An insider said _"the feedback he is getting from existing and prospective investors is that Nuix could do a better job in terms of enunciating the key drivers of its business and prospects_."

Its revenue recognition policy is now under scrutiny and a number of shareholders are evaluating its status as a growth stock and where it goes from here. There are two ways to measure revenue: *statutory revenue*, required under its accounting standards, and *annual contract value*, a commonly used metric in the software industry to average annualised revenue per customer contract. The prospectus describes ACV as “removing fluctuations from multi‑year deals in Nuix’s total revenue which results from its revenue recognition policies”.

Under its statutory revenue measure, multi-year contracts can be recognised and booked upfront – as much as 80 per cent can be booked upfront – and the rest deferred over the life of the contract for support and maintenance. In a statement, Nuix said upfront multi-year deals made up 25 per cent of its 2020 revenues and 23 per cent of revenues in the first half of FY21. 


> “With a continued rise in software as a service deals which are recognised on a month-to-month basis, the percentage of MYDs is expected to decrease."




Some investors believe ACV is a better measure of the company’s revenue performance. In its prospectus, Nuix forecasts ACV growth of 18.6 per cent for the full year, a figure that attracted growth investors. In the December half, ACV was 4 per cent, which many investors believe will make it difficult to reach its full-year forecasts, something the company rejects.

- _apart from communications issues, even a 'back of the envelope' glance would throw up a challenge of making 18% annualised if the first half is 4%. 

Will probably pop today. DNH._


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## Dona Ferentes (11 April 2021)

strip away the 'growth story'. strip away the new paradigm, strip away the momentum .....

an imprecise science, but it looks like something close the $5.31 IPO price as shown by the last month (& strip away the wanna-be stags, when reality set in) is what the weighted action thinks NXL is worth?


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## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> strip away the 'growth story'. strip away the new paradigm, strip away the momentum ...



*and, down on a down day*?

NXL provides commentary on recent trading conditions following completion of an internal quarterly management review.  
_• Pro Forma Revenue of $180m-$185m (vs $193.5m forecast in the IPO Prospectus) 
• Annualised Contract Value of $168m-$177m (vs $199.6m) • Pro Forma EBITDA of $64.6m-$66.6m (vs $63.6m) 
• Acceleration in customer transition to consumption and software as a service (SaaS) licenses impacts the revenue profile but delivers significant longer-term business model benefits 
• Current operating climate has reduced near-term upsell opportunities, while revenue from renewals and new business remain in line with expectations 
• Strong underlying business performance with substantial increases in new customers won, and total and average order values, compared to the same period in FY20 

During April, a significant and larger than expected number of Nuix’s customers, including one of its largest, elected to *transition *from module-based subscription licenses to consumption and SaaS license models, resulting in a *shift *in both revenue and ACV profiles.  
Some of Nuix’s law firm, advisory and service provider customers have also recently informed Nuix of a *reduced *add-on (upsell) requirement for existing licenses. This is due to both their *unutilised *license capacity in the current climate, as well as the recovery in legal case backlog being *slower *than anticipated_.


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## bk1 (21 April 2021)

It should be remembered that this is a Software and Services company that actually makes a profit however, its down 16% today as we speak.
The upcoming Investor Day presentation in May will be interesting  ...


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## dyna (22 April 2021)

Volume 10 million.Oh boy,that's Instos again.Macquarie is sitting on a $100 mill loss....so far. This could become a screaming buy...but when? Best to wait,methinks.


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## dyna (24 April 2021)

Macquarie won't be concerned, even though it would not be a good look to realise the loss right now and write it off. Unlike the former (sacked?) NXL Ceo,they sure were not dudded in the float.
 They made $565.7 Million selling at the $5.31 issue price.That's a 376% capital gain on their initial $150 Million invested 9 years ago.


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## bsnews (24 April 2021)

dyna said:


> Macquarie won't be concerned, even though it would not be a good look to realise the loss right now and write it off. Unlike the former (sacked?) NXL Ceo,they sure were not dudded in the float.
> They made $565.7 Million selling at the $5.31 issue price.That's a 376% capital gain on their initial $150 Million invested 9 years ago.



I am into this stock for a fair amount. So on the day it got snapped before close I brought what I thought would be enough to cover my loss if it bounced back as I thought it would a punt really but I would like to think an educated one lol
I like the business and for a tech sector its not easy to find one.
Now do I hold or take the break even while I can.
Still undecided ATM.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 April 2021)

bk1 said:


> It should be remembered that this is a Software and Services company that actually makes a profit however, its down 16% today as we speak.
> The upcoming Investor Day presentation in May will be interesting  ...



Mayday or M'aidez

got below $4 during the day. Low of $3.95 and closed at $4.03, another 5% slump.


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## dyna (3 May 2021)

Very helpful write-up in today's AFR.
When the company signs up a client on a multi year contract,it books at least 80% of it,up-front.
Macquarie itself did this,paying its own $US 1/2 Million, 3 year contract, all in one go,3years ago.
These contracts can be up to 20% of its revenues.One Fundie cites low (sub 10%) revenue growth as a good reason for him, not to pile into nxl : a mature company with a low free cash flow and a whopping PE ratio at 55 times earnings.
Data analytics and Intell is a growth sector for sure,but this company's accounting is a bit on the aggressive side.Things may become clearer at Macquarie's  conference on 6th May and Nxl's investor day on 18th of May.
Meanwhile short positions(you can keep track,yourself, on "shortman.com.au") are still rising,2.2million shares so far, are now out on loan to the short-sellers.


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## Dona Ferentes (3 May 2021)

dyna said:


> Very helpful write-up in today's AFR.



Then there is the *capitalisation of research and development*, which is high compared to many ASX companies. Nuix capitalises, rather than expenses, about  84 per cent of R&D which it amortises over 10 years.


> This treatment may boost earnings but it manifests itself in the negligible free cash flow.  The  low free cash flow, according to one fund manager that ran the ruler  over Nuix, can be tolerated for a fast growing organic business that is  investing for growth. But for a mature company with sub 10 per cent  revenue growth, "it's a red flag".


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## Dona Ferentes (11 May 2021)

Are we there yet? (starting to look embarassing)


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## peter2 (11 May 2021)

*Three gaps down *and the exterminators (evil short sellers) are in for the clean up.


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## Miner (17 May 2021)

Nuix holders and punters
Please read today's AFR .
The newspaper has started an investigation on nuix.
Market will savagely react this morning.
Do not hold.
Good luck


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## galumay (17 May 2021)

The warning signs were there for a long time.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 May 2021)

Miner said:


> Nuix holders and punters ...  Please read today's AFR ....The newspaper has started an investigation on nuix.
> Market will savagely react this morning.



And indeed it did. Down 10% , got to as low as $3.06 mid day.

The article was very unflattering towards the way Nuix operated in its formative years. Personality conflicts, board ructions, a leading light doing time before acquital. To me, it was damning of mothership Macquarie and portrayed a rather cavalier attitude to incubating a so-called world beater. Snouts in the trough, cashing out oppies as soon as possible; all rather expected. But the hiding of relationships, inserting and deleting info about key players is deceptive.

Apart from the really high turnover/ churn of management and software engineers prior to listing, the other takeout is that, of all the risks documented in the prospectus, it turns out


> [n]one of the reasons given for the latest downgrade made the top 10 risks disclosed in the prospectus.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 May 2021)

There is rather a lot of RED on the chart.

Support Resistance at 12, 11,10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5 ,4, 3 ...






gg


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## bk1 (17 May 2021)

"The article was very unflattering towards the way Nuix operated in its formative years."

How better this would have resonated if you had included a source...but i'm not holding my breath.
Macquarie backed it from early on for a lot of money, they are entitled to take money off the table at IPO, which they did.
I'm more interested in the here and now of Nuix, not that it looks good currently.
I do not hold.


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## dyna (17 May 2021)

The anonymous source is only talking through a lawyer for now,but did notify ASIC  in the middle of the float of financial mismanagement, incorrect  accounting, wrong tax estimates and more. And what did the corporate cop do? With the mighty Macquarie involved, how could anything, not be above board? Anyway,it assigns the IPO monitoring to a....graduate and his boss. Good one ASIC!
A company associate resigns on the day of the float to cash in $3,000 worth of options for a cool $80 Million(sic).
AfterPay directors and insiders have been selling like crazy,these past couple of years,too,but at least the market has been informed every time.It's the freakin law.


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## kenny (17 May 2021)

AFR article was quite one sided given the lack of detail from the investigations at this stage. Whilst I don't hold, I'm interested enough to keep an eye on the Market Cap as it dips below $1B which may take it below 5x Revenue. Standen & Phillips are some of the sharpest operators in the Millionaires Factory and they remain involved.

I agree that early investors should rightly use the liquidity event of an IPO to realise some of their gains.


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## bk1 (18 May 2021)

Investor Day presentation has lifted the sp by 10% as i write, the market is obviously happy for now. I didn't see anything in it that was not known previously, i would be interested in the views of anybody that holds NXL...


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## dyna (18 May 2021)

Don't hold.(yet). This from today's AFR,quoting a former NXL senior executive "Like AMP,it can't innovate and the culture's so bad,it's hard to recruit".
The company's auditors delayed the 2019 full year audit due to squabbles over R&D tax claims of $ 42 Million.


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## Dona Ferentes (31 May 2021)

Nuix has downgraded its financial year 2021 revenue targets for the second time in two months, adding fresh pressure to its share price after a sharp drop over the past few weeks.

Nuix anticipates revenue for the year to June 30 of $173 million to $182 million, down from a forecast in April of $180 million to $185 million.

The company said the outlook for earnings before interest and tax would remain the same, but its annualised contract value would also fall, and is forecast to slip to $165 million to $172 million, down from prior guidance of $168 million to $177 million.

_.... Carelessness personified?_


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## dyna (31 May 2021)

Volume 20 million. What a day.There will be more days like this ,right up to June 30 , I guess.
Institutional investors are just giving up on this thing ,now.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 June 2021)

dyna said:


> There will be more days like this ,right up to June 30 , I guess.
> Institutional investors are just giving up on this thing ,now.



well guessed.



> Nuix chairman Jeffrey Bleich said Nuix is "_genuinely disturbed by the allegations_" concerning its former chief financial officer, Stephen Doyle, "_and will fully assist ASIC in getting to the bottom of that matter_" after ASIC commenced an investigation. This investigation also includes Ross and Ronald Doyle.






> Nuix has learned of a separate investigation into the affairs of Nuix related to its financial statements and prospectus, with which it plans to fully cooperate, it added.




Run for the hills?  Plumbed as low as $2.16 today, some 15% down. 

 And reputational damage to those involved, including Macquarie? Immeasurable.


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## peter2 (28 August 2021)

I'll admit that I'm tempted by this chart but not until after their next update which is Monday (30/8/21). 
I suspect there'll be lots watching this one.


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## dyna (28 August 2021)

A lot of insiders' and former executives' stock comes out of escrow , Monday, too. So that will make things interesting. Macquarie's $ 250+ mill ,as well, but they ,at least, won't be bailing.


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## bk1 (28 August 2021)

No, Macquarie wont be bailing. Institutions bought in a couple of months ago, me too.
Monday will tell the tale, hopefully i called the bottom.
It has revenue and profit, something you cant always find in the Software and Services sector.


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## dyna (28 August 2021)

Well done you. For the not so bold and brave of this wonderful forum...( me ) there's more:
LIC , Sandon Capital has a small holding in NXL, too.  Now that is somewhat interesting, considering the stunning success they've had with a well-timed investment in a beaten-up Boral and Iluka Resources and something else, that's slipped my mind.


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## galumay (29 August 2021)

Braver than me to risk capital here.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 August 2021)

galumay said:


> Braver than me to risk capital here.



stunning results... down 10%

_Nuix has swung to a $1.6 million statutory loss in financial 2021, versus a profit of $23.6 million in financial 2020. Revenue rose 0.1 per cent to $176 million.

On a pro forma or adjusted basis it said profit rose 33.2 per cent to $25 million, versus $18.8 million in the prior year. It said it won 100 new customers over the year at an average order value of $240,000. Customer churn finished at 3.7 per cent._


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## Miner (30 August 2021)

NXL shed lot of blood from investors and it is pay back time for the directors in terms of corporate due diligence complaints and getting out of the company.
Unfortunately MQG will as usual will get jail free card considering the loss of todays' has been well covered with the prices when NXL jacked up to more than $11.  The whole structure of the organization and promoters carry lots of baggage .









			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02414154-2A1319483?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02414150-2A1319481?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

With escrow open from tomorrow, trading on 31st August would be very interesting



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02406489-2A1315349?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

Disclaimer - DNH


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## kenny (31 August 2021)

It's tempting to bottom fish I must admit but it's unclear to me;

how strong is retention of current contracts (3.7% churn is blended and hides a lot) and recurring revenue given the change from module based pricing to subscription
how good is the sales pipeline and how well are the sales team able to convert the leads this quarter and the next
have they reduced their burn rate to compensate for the changes
what is Fair Value and how would I compare this with another ASX company?
Help?


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## aus_trader (31 August 2021)

kenny said:


> It's tempting to bottom fish I must admit but it's unclear to me;
> 
> how strong is retention of current contracts (3.7% churn is blended and hides a lot) and recurring revenue given the change from module based pricing to subscription
> how good is the sales pipeline and how well are the sales team able to convert the leads this quarter and the next
> ...



I don't think even the company management might be able to answer some of those questions.

One thing I noted that really impacted the bottom line was 'general & admin' expense:






Way higher than last year's and turned what could've been a +ve income to a -ve income i.e. Profit to a Loss. Don't know if this is one off due to compensating for Covid related issues that they had to spend or a recurring theme going forward...


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## kenny (31 August 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I don't think even the company management might be able to answer some of those questions.
> 
> One thing I noted that really impacted the bottom line was 'general & admin' expense:
> 
> ...




Interesting pickup @aus_trader and I would be at least partially attributing it to legal costs and provisions given the scandals NXL has been hit with.


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## aus_trader (31 August 2021)

kenny said:


> Interesting pickup @aus_trader and I would be at least partially attributing it to legal costs and provisions given the scandals NXL has been hit with.



Good point, it's very costly when it comes to anything legal.

So it's a good thing I am having a few shares of what I believe is the best dividend paying legal stock on the asx in the Speculative Stock Portfolio


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## Miner (1 September 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I don't think even the company management might be able to answer some of those questions.
> 
> One thing I noted that really impacted the bottom line was 'general & admin' expense:
> 
> ...



This is a company going to be a corporate case study for law students not too far distance.


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## dyna (1 September 2021)

To ignore warnings from your own auditors ( re : a dodgy $ 42 Mill R&D claim 2 years ago ) is just baffling.
Half of that government grant ( tax payers' money, here folks ) was supposed to be spent in THIS country , not 5%. The ATO is surely not gonna let this thing go. So, more legal fees will appear in next year's annual report.
Also, PWC is yet to sign off on this year's accounts that went down so well with the market on Monday.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 October 2021)

Nuix has had a better week or two, lifting from the $2.50 mark to be around $3.20 today.



> NXL is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr Jonathan Rubinsztein as Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, and Mr Chad Barton as permanent Chief Financial Officer after serving in that role on an interim basis.





> Mr Rubinsztein is a seasoned technology executive with a track record of leading dynamic organisations in international environments and driving strategic transformations to create shareholder value. He has recently announced he will be stepping down as the CEO of Infomedia, an ASX listed company providing SaaS solutions to the global automotive industry.


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## bk1 (22 October 2021)

I must confess i have not heard of either of these two names however, the market has taken to the news. 
Nuix now at a 3 month high, there's been consistent buying preceding this announcement, and now the retail investors appear to endorse it.


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## Miner (22 October 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Nuix has had a better week or two, lifting from the $2.50 mark to be around $3.20 today.



Good share and looked back now both NXL and IFM.
IFM shares dived down on 18th Oct hearing the news of CEO's resignation and NXL started creeping up (clearly insider news before becoming public).
NXL was pumped up Motley and hopefully the new CEO Jonathon would be able to turn back the stock.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> I must confess i have not heard of either of these two names however, the market has taken to the news.
> Nuix now at a 3 month high, there's been consistent buying preceding this announcement, and now the retail investors appear to endorse it.



and the new guy is not some glamour (OS) hotshot dropped in, but someone doing the hard path of running a listed company.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 November 2021)

> _Chairman and Group CEO addresses, Trading Update_




..... and down 11% to $2.20, about as low as it has got.  Won't even click and look.


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## Miner (4 December 2021)

Is NLX going to turn around? But its P/E is terrible



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02461556-2A1343226?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


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## peter2 (21 December 2021)

*NXL* popped up in my reversal scan today. Interesting as it's a low sized risk (0.15) for a potential rally back to old high (3.00). 

I'm interested as I continually read that the Nuix software does a good job and the present customers stick. The company has to fix management and keep the IT guys that created the tech. I'd offer them heaps of shares to hang around. 





	

		
			
		

		
	
 Traded NXL before for losses, let's see how this one turns out.


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## Mr Flibble (30 December 2021)

I've put this in the CY2022 Tipping Comp purely as a punt. Might need the full year to turn around, but surely the worst is behind it?


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## Dona Ferentes (21 January 2022)

Mr Flibble said:


> but surely the worst is behind it?



Nuix shares collapsed to an all-time low on Friday as the intelligence software provider warned legal bills and falling revenue would plague the company during the first half of the year. Down nearly 23%


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## Dona Ferentes (17 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Nuix shares collapsed to an all-time low on Friday as the intelligence software provider ....



at last, NXL broke $1.00..  At least for some of today's trades.

It's not getting any easier, is it?


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## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

now 64c; an All time Low reached of 55c soon after trading restarted.

An update with _Guidance Estimates_ announced, with a warning of slowing sales to new customers and mounting legal costs (already reached $14 million for the FY).

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are set to come in between $10 million and $12 million, compared to $30 million in the prior year.


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