# Sydney Property Price History Charts



## michael_selway (17 September 2006)

Hi just wondering if anyone knows any sites for property prices in sydney through the years, 1980 till now?

By suburb and house type maybe? other states also?

Similar for basemetals we know about the below etc

http://www.kitcometals.com
http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx



> http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...-in-debt-crisis/2006/08/20/1156012414995.html
> 
> A THREE-BEDROOM brick-veneer house in St Clair sold for just $260,000 at the weekend - down about 42 per cent from its last sale at $450,000 in 2003 in a further sign of the depressed state of the Sydney property market.
> 
> ...




http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument







thx

MS


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## clowboy (17 September 2006)

www.reiwa.com.au

WA suburb profiles and history


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## michael_selway (14 October 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> www.reiwa.com.au
> 
> WA suburb profiles and history




Thats pretty good buts its only WA only and it dosnt have charts or graphs

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/safe-as-houses/2006/10/13/1160246326065.html

thx

MS


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## michael_selway (28 October 2006)

Hi guys, i think i found what i was looking for

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/Home Price Guide Media Release 010806.pdf
http://www.smh.com.au/news/property/more-for-your-money/2006/10/06/1159641498926.html











Looks like Sydney corrected a bit

thx

MS


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## YChromozome (29 October 2006)

Excellent find Michael.

I was going to comment on how sustainable the Perth market looked in those graphs and my knowledge of physics, but then reading your top link posts, I found this which sums it up perfectly :

However, Perth has real worries of its own. Price rises in the double digits in just one quarter is not sustainable and my fear is the harder that market rises, the harder it will fall when the cycle changes.

“It has been well documented that the reason why the Perth market is doing so well relates directly back to the global commodity market boom. May I also suggest a second theory, being that the market is a particularly shallow one, in that there is not much tradable stock, meaning that any shifts in demand can cause a dramatic move for prices. However, this can also work in the opposite direction. For when demand eventually falls, Perth housing prices will likely retreat quite sharply.


Speaking of which, had anyone see the figures out from the US on Thursday night? "US House prices plunging at fastest rate in 36 years." It came with some nice graphs, which I could swear looked almost the inverse of the Perth graph . .


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## nizar (29 October 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> Speaking of which, had anyone see the figures out from the US on Thursday night? "US House prices plunging at fastest rate in 36 years." It came with some nice graphs, which I could swear looked almost the inverse of the Perth graph . .




yeh i did hear that... was it 10.4% in one quarter?
Ouch!
couple that with the fact that it was only 3 years ago when houses peaked out and interest rates at 1% in the States, doesnt paint a good picture and i reckon heaps of people got caught buying at the top with a massive mortgage and falling house prices and now severely in debt


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## Smurf1976 (29 October 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> Speaking of which, had anyone see the figures out from the US on Thursday night? "US House prices plunging at fastest rate in 36 years." It came with some nice graphs, which I could swear looked almost the inverse of the Perth graph . .



"You can't lose with real estate" : 

Words that will haunt many for years to come.


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## Realist (29 October 2006)

safe as houses...


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## zed327 (29 October 2006)

If you are anything like me and have backed the comodities boom to continue it's bull run for at least a few more years to come, then can you imagine what WA real estate prices will be like when gold surges over $1000 plus an ounce and every two bit gold mine that ever dug up a nugget will start up again. The 1890's gold boom is about to happen again.Property prices and rents in gold mining towns like Kalgoorlie-Coolgardie_Southern Cross will match the rents in Karratha $600-$1000 a week. WA is extremely short of workers which will keep pushing wages as companies compete for workers and that in turn keeps pushing house prices here. Every boom has it's bust and ours is coming but i suspect it is not for a fair while yet. I keep an eye on the Sydney market and would like to invest there in the future but not untill the interest rates show signs of going down not up like next month. The best property chart to look at is the housing affordabilty index. If corilate that to Sydney property prices you will never have to guess your entry into property again. I hope this has been of some help to you.


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## juddy (29 October 2006)

zed327 said:
			
		

> every two bit gold mine that ever dug up a nugget will start up again. .




They already have.


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## Rafa (30 October 2006)

whilst i agree that the property market is going to come off the boil, i am struggling to work out how much it will fall by...

given that it costs close to 250K to put up a decent house nowadays, not to mention council costs in connect up facilities, etc, (this is pretty much throughout australia)... if the median price drops significantly, you are talking about land value approaching close to zero!!!!

I fail to see how this can happen...

In Australia atleast, i don't beleive there is this massive oversupply of land... (suitable for developement that is) or indeed houses....  sure lot of investors may decide to exit the market, but there are lot of people how still don't own a home...

All up, its hard to see a fall of more than 20%... (famous last words     ) especially with most people earning 50K a year on avg...


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## djones (30 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> safe as houses...


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## Rafa (30 October 2006)

hmm...
article on rents about to skyrocket and housing shortages...

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/10/30/1162056875194.html


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## YChromozome (6 November 2006)

Interesting series of reports on the ABC's world today about the state of the Sydney market and things to come :
http://abc.net.au/worldtoday/

 - Mortgagee sales rising
 - Dreams shattered as mortgagees forced to sell homes
 - Estate agents say housing repossession never worse
 - Perth housing market will follow Sydney, Melbourne slump: analyst
 - Property problems raise questions about lending practices
 - Fed MPs debate solution to housing woes of their constituents
 - Foreigners hoping to steal Melbourne Cup

Speaking on Perth :

MICHAEL EDWARDS: And you're saying at this stage the problem is affecting Sydney and Melbourne primarily, but is it likely to spread to other parts?

NEIL JENMAN: Oh, very much so. I look at what's happening in Perth today, and I think that the headlines are saying, well Perth is likely to overtake Sydney as the most expensive city in Australia.

What a lot of people don't realise is that Perth, on a household income to prices ratio, is already the most expensive city in Australia, and in actual fact it's the fifth most expensive city in the world.

Now, as beautiful as Perth may be, that just doesn't make sense. And I can assure you that one of the next headlines we'll be seeing in the months and years ahead will be ahead of the Perth property collapse.

MICHAEL EDWARDS: So they're headed for a fall?

NEIL JENMAN: Oh, a huge fall. No doubt about it whatsoever.

Look, wherever you get a great big boom, you get people saying that this boom is different this time, but you also get a great big bust afterwards.


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## Smurf1976 (6 November 2006)

> Perth, on a household income to prices ratio, is already the most expensive city in Australia, and in actual fact it's the fifth most expensive city in the world.
> 
> Now, as beautiful as Perth may be, that just doesn't make sense



Exactly. And it doesn't make sense for Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Hobart to be amongst the most expensive cities in the WORLD either. Sydney perhaps, but not Hobart or Adelaide. There's nothing "wrong" with them but when you find either of them listed along with London or New York in terms of affordability then you know something ain't right and it's not likely to last. Most people outside of Australia and perhaps NZ wouldn't even know they exist.



> Look, wherever you get a great big boom, you get people saying that this boom is different this time, but you also get a great big bust afterwards.




Anyone had the experience of foreseeing a young driver smashing up their car? I have and I even told them exactly what would happen. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened but there is no way I could ever have convinced them _before_ the crash that they were heading for disaster. I tried, so did others, but it took the actual smash to get the message through to an otherwise quite smart individual.

Same with bubbles and lots of other things. It all looks fine when you're on the inside whilst for those outside the impending disaster is readily apparent. Only after the event will those on the inside understand why others saw it coming.


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## Julia (6 November 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> Interesting series of reports on the ABC's world today about the state of the Sydney market and things to come :
> http://abc.net.au/worldtoday/
> 
> - Mortgagee sales rising
> ...




I heard the World Today programme also.  It included the fact that many of those involved in having their homes repossessed had obtained loans from nodoc lenders with minimal or no deposits.  Some of these lenders have even permitted loans to people on Centrelink benefits.  Obviously they can't hope to keep up the repayments.

So, before everyone gets too hysterical about media reports of incredible levels of mortgagee sales, let's document exactly the basis on which houses are in fact being repossessed.

If borrowers are silly enough to borrow to their absolute maximum capacity of repayment, and not allow anything for rate rises (or any unforeseen expenses in their personal lives), then I haven't a whole lot of sympathy for them.

Julia


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## wayneL (7 November 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> If borrowers are silly enough to borrow to their absolute maximum capacity of repayment, and not allow anything for rate rises (or any unforeseen expenses in their personal lives), then I haven't a whole lot of sympathy for them.
> 
> Julia



Many people now have no choice if they want to own. Even houses in Hell (located precisely in Rageway, Geraldton) are now more than 200k.... well beyond the capacity of most of the poor unfortunates consigned to live there.


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## michael_selway (12 November 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> Excellent find Michael.
> 
> I was going to comment on how sustainable the Perth market looked in those graphs and my knowledge of physics, but then reading your top link posts, I found this which sums it up perfectly :
> 
> ...




do you have a link to the "nice graphs"?

thx

MS


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## YChromozome (12 November 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> do you have a link to the "nice graphs"?




Can't find exactly what I was after sorry - Many news outlets ran the numbers and a search on news.google.com.au finds many.

I've attached the one for the price of NEW US housing. It was down 9.7%, the fastest fall in 36 years (depending who dramatises it)

Existing US housing fell 2.5% which some claim is "the largest decline in records going back nearly four decades." 




I've also thrown in "Investors Flee Housing" which I find more interesting being closer to home. It was a graph Alan Kohler ran on the ABC showing Loan Growth to buy existing Investment Properties in Australia. It would appear investors made a sharp 'u' turn and one might assume there is not as much demand for housing at the present moment? (Unless Investors are now paying cash for their Investment Properties . . . )


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## tech/a (12 November 2006)

> Exactly. And it doesn't make sense for Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Hobart to be amongst the most expensive cities in the WORLD either. Sydney perhaps, but not Hobart or Adelaide. There's nothing "wrong" with them but when you find either of them listed along with London or New York in terms of affordability then you know something ain't right and it's not likely to last. Most people outside of Australia and perhaps NZ wouldn't even know they exist.




Smurf you dont travel much do you?

80% of the worlds population would fall over themselves to have even 50% of the lifestyle those in Hobart and Adelaide Enjoy.

Just dont tell them.


What is this fixation with property and investors/interest rates.
*Serious investors * have sold or are selling property and gearing to more sensible levels.Sell one house and positively gear 2.

Theres more to property investment than buy and hold.
Personally I feel there is a poor understanding of wise property investment Just as there is in wise share trading.

*This fixation is clearly limited to those who lament missing out!!
All singing in chorus that they WILL buy when prices crash.*

Would one of these wise people just let me know when I should rush out and buy!


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## swingstar (12 November 2006)

tech, are there any books on property development that you recommend?


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## Smurf1976 (12 November 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> What is this fixation with property and investors/interest rates.
> *Serious investors * have sold or are selling property and gearing to more sensible levels.Sell one house and positively gear 2.
> 
> Theres more to property investment than buy and hold.
> Personally I feel there is a poor understanding of wise property investment Just as there is in wise share trading.



In other words, the smart money is reducing exposure to real estate. I wonder why that is...



> *This fixation is clearly limited to those who lament missing out!!
> All singing in chorus that they WILL buy when prices crash.*
> 
> Would one of these wise people just let me know when I should rush out and buy



The same could be said of anyone who suggests that ANY stock is likely to stop soaring in price EVER. It's not lamenting anything, it's just using some commonsense and coming to a conclusion as to what is most likely to happen next. That's ultimately the whole point of analysing stock fundamentals, technical analysis etc. An attempt to determine what happens next and use that for financial gain.

Whether or not I or anyone else thinks house prices "should" do this or that is irrelevant. It's what's likely to actually happen that matters. Now, with house _valuations_ at historic highs by practically every measure, it seems rather likely that at some point those valuation levels will fall. 

Even a brief look at the actual market, at least in Sydney, Melbourne or Hobart, reveals that the number of forced sales is on the rise. Call it good, bad or whatever. That's not the point. The point is that most of the available evidence points towards a fall in valuation. Indeed that is already very much happening in some markets.

Nothing personal here, I'm NOT having a go at tech/a, but it never ceases to amaze me that many people become so emotional when discussing real estate as an investment, usually refusing to even consider the possibility of price falls, whilst those same people can readily accept the possibility of shares or commodities falling in value. The way I see it, that emotional attachment and outright denial of what is certainly a possible event is in itself the ultimate symptom of bubble psychology at work. As I said, that's just a general observation and not a comment directed at tech/a.


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## Knobby22 (12 November 2006)

I have changed my view.

I have not seen in my area (within 7k of the City, N/W Melbourne) and fed well by public transport, any evidence of a fall in housing, prices just keep rising with the tax cuts. I hate to say this but the fall mainly affects the city fringe of most Cities where rising petrol prices and less well paid people live. 

The fall will only come if we have a recession and people start losing jobs.
We have high employment and the average homeowner will fight extremely hard to keep their home no matter what deprivations they may have to handle. A rise of a little over 1% is not enough to shake them. 

Once the middle class lose their jobs with their car loans and highly geared investment property then we shall see some misery. We are a long way from that -  in fact if interest rates plateau, as it looks like happening, house prices will continue to rise,though not as strongly.

It is a bubble but in my view (but it is a bubble that mainly occurred in Sydney), it is not overly inflated one. Sorry Kris.


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## Mofra (12 November 2006)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Even a brief look at the actual market, at least in Sydney, Melbourne or Hobart, reveals that the number of forced sales is on the rise.



On a side note, we received word that last weekend 31-33% of houses cleared at auction in Sydney were Mortgagee sales. I cannot vouch for their accuracy as I am unsure of the exact method of vetting, but these are figures major lenders & mortgage insurers use to determine how strict they will interpret their current lending policy.


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## tech/a (12 November 2006)

Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> In other words, the smart money is reducing exposure to real estate. I wonder why that is...




Well the smart money in R/E from those I'm involved with is simply changing direction from Buy and hold established property to--- 
(1) Commercial
(2) Cut and shut larger properties particularly on corners.
(3) Demolishion and Community title developement.




> The same could be said of anyone who suggests that ANY stock is likely to stop soaring in price EVER. It's not lamenting anything, it's just using some commonsense and coming to a conclusion as to what is most likely to happen next. That's ultimately the whole point of analysing stock fundamentals, technical analysis etc. An attempt to determine what happens next and use that for financial gain.




Again personally----in the markets I and others simply search out those performers regardless of what the market is doing now or is likely to do.



> Whether or not I or anyone else thinks house prices "should" do this or that is irrelevant. It's what's likely to actually happen that matters. Now, with house _valuations_ at historic highs by practically every measure, it seems rather likely that at some point those valuation levels will fall.




Likely and Should seem to be identical. 



> Even a brief look at the actual market, at least in Sydney, Melbourne or Hobart, reveals that the number of forced sales is on the rise. Call it good, bad or whatever. That's not the point. The point is that most of the available evidence points towards a fall in valuation. Indeed that is already very much happening in some markets.




Yes that is true.But I open the Sunday mail today to a headline

*"1000 of homes lost in 2006 to rate rises"*

1000s!!!!!! I read on.---- " 40 homes a month over the last year have been forced mortgagee sales" it goes on to say.---well I make that max 480 in a year NOT 1000s!!!


Ok prices are coming off---.



> Nothing personal here, I'm NOT having a go at tech/a, but it never ceases to amaze me that many people become so emotional when discussing real estate as an investment, usually refusing to even consider the possibility of price falls, whilst those same people can readily accept the possibility of shares or commodities falling in value. The way I see it, that emotional attachment and outright denial of what is certainly a possible event is in itself the ultimate symptom of bubble psychology at work. As I said, that's just a general observation and not a comment directed at tech/a.




Come on Smurfy I can take it!! I become emotional because most who comment and even jurno's have no EXPERIENCE in R/E but all of a sudden everyone is an expert. Same happens in Trading!


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## michael_selway (23 December 2006)

Mofra said:
			
		

> On a side note, we received word that last weekend 31-33% of houses cleared at auction in Sydney were Mortgagee sales. I cannot vouch for their accuracy as I am unsure of the exact method of vetting, but these are figures major lenders & mortgage insurers use to determine how strict they will interpret their current lending policy.




Interesting, also below video about US Housing Market Prices in 2007, debate between bulls and bears

http://www.europac.net/media/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.wmv







thx

MS


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## YChromozome (23 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Interesting, also below video about US Housing Market Prices in 2007, debate between bulls and bears
> 
> http://www.europac.net/media/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.wmv




I have to laugh after watching that. No one was given any time to properly explain their scenarios. 

I'm also one that doesn't buy this historically low 'absolute' interest rates is what will save the housing market. Sure, cheap and easy money is what started it, but housing affordability is made up of two things - interest rates and the upfront capital cost to purchase the house. Interest rates might be historically low, but house prices even factoring in inflation has gone out of control and is at historical highs canceling out any net gains by low interest rates. After all the housing affordability index is lower today than it was in the late '80s when rates were at all time highs, but houses were cheap.

One interviewee indicated the only thing that will derail housing is higher unemployment. Sure this will impact borrowers ability to service their debt, but I believe there has to be some equilibrium point somewhere too where one can no longer service a level of debt due to unsustainable increases in house prices. House prices are rising faster than wage growth. If interest rates rise, and prices also rise as predicted, then you have both components going against you in terms of housing affordability helping you to hit this equilibrium point faster.

I thought it was interesting how one of the guys shrugged off interest rate rises, saying because they are historically low people wouldn't have a problem if they went up 1.5 percentage points. However I believe because we have taken on so much extra debt now, smaller changes in rates will have a much bigger impact than historically.

Looking at our markets, there was this article published Today :
Bubble Watching - The Australian - December 23, 2006

It examines views from Ian Mcfairlane and Glen Stevens on interest rates, debt levels and inflation.


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## theasxgorilla (23 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Interesting, also below video about US Housing Market Prices in 2007, debate between bulls and bears
> 
> http://www.europac.net/media/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.wmv
> MS




When watching that footage I like to keep in mind a friend of mine who is forever trying to go short.  After watching a a big move up that he's missed again due to being in the toilet (or whatever) he starts trying to predict the top and the inevitable fall.  A common phrase I hear is , "It's too far away from it's moving average!  It's gotta fall!".

And boy-oh-boy when it pulls back is he gonna cash-in and all those silly bastards that bought over-valued shares are gonna be hurting!


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## michael_selway (23 December 2006)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> When watching that footage I like to keep in mind a friend of mine who is forever trying to go short.  After watching a a big move up that he's missed again due to being in the toilet (or whatever) he starts trying to predict the top and the inevitable fall.  A common phrase I hear is , "It's too far away from it's moving average!  It's gotta fall!".
> 
> And boy-oh-boy when it pulls back is he gonna cash-in and all those silly bastards that bought over-valued shares are gonna be hurting!




Yeah thats true

http://www.1stmillionat33.com/2006/09/charts-on-housing-markets-us-economy/




thx

MS


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## YChromozome (23 December 2006)

The OECD released a paper titled Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals a couple of months ago which I found was a good read.

It has charts such as 

Real house prices
Price-to-income
price-to-rent ratios
OECD Real house prices and the business cycle

of many of the OECD countries, so you can compare the US to Australia etc. If you thought the US was over-inflated have a look at Australia and Spain. Also looks like you get good rent returns in Ireland . .  

Housing is also a different investment to that of shares. With shares, the price can just keep going up and up. At some stage the PE ratio may be junk but if you have the money and the want, you can keep buying and lifting the price - supply and demand.

Residential Housing is dominated by owner-occupiers. Sure the wealthy can continue to drive up the top end of the market and pay what they want, but at some stage the middle and lower classes will be priced out of the market.  I can remember a Money show on TV presented by Paul Clitherow not long ago. One couple in Sydney was putting 100% of their wages into the mortgage, and using government assistance etc to live off, pay bills etc. At some stage it will become unsustainable.


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## theasxgorilla (24 December 2006)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> When watching that footage I like to keep in mind a friend of mine who is forever trying to go short.  After watching a a big move up that he's missed again due to being in the toilet (or whatever) he starts trying to predict the top and the inevitable fall.  A common phrase I hear is , "It's too far away from it's moving average!  It's gotta fall!".
> 
> And boy-oh-boy when it pulls back is he gonna cash-in and all those silly bastards that bought over-valued shares are gonna be hurting!




It probably didn't come across but I was trying to be facetious.  Just because something has soared up to a historically extreme level and defies economic logic is not reason enough for it to suddenly come crashing down.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s690761.htm

Where is the burst property bubble we were promised?


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## Smurf1976 (24 December 2006)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> It probably didn't come across but I was trying to be facetious.  Just because something has soared up to a historically extreme level and defies economic logic is not reason enough for it to suddenly come crashing down.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s690761.htm
> 
> Where is the burst property bubble we were promised?



Depends on what you define as a burst bubble. 

If it's simply a decline in nominal house prices for the SAME house (since an "average" house is of gradually improving quality due to renovations etc in recent times) then parts of Sydney and Hobart have a burst bubble.

Put it in "real" terms and it's a substantial fall over 20% in many Hobart suburbs (middle income, not too far from the CBD, public transport in the area, schools and the largest shopping centre in the state not far away) indeed they're approaching that for the SAME house in nominal terms if you're happy with a modest 3 bed house. Much the same in Sydney.

But if you're looking for an outright crash in nominal terms then it hasn't happened yet, at least not in an Australian capital city although reports indicate some parts of the US are getting close for certain types of property.


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## clowboy (24 December 2006)

So housing prices went up during the great depression?

How does that work?


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## Jay-684 (24 December 2006)

Anyone still not believe there is a housing bubble in Perth? $85 million for a house in Perth?

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,20957634-2761,00.html


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## krisbarry (24 December 2006)

This is just crazy....how many young people have been forced out of the housing market to accomodate this kind of filthy greed.

How many low cost houses could be built....hundreds.  

Now ya see why so many young people just give up!.  The gap just keeps getting bigger and bigger!

There is nothing funny about this its sad and sick that we allow such things to happen


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## YChromozome (24 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Now ya see why so many young people just give up!.  The gap just keeps getting bigger and bigger!




. . not that this is a bad thing. As housing is no longer reachable for this demographic and they no longer need to put money away for the Mortgage, there is so much more disposal income to help keep the economy going, to underpin company profits, keep unemployment low, help China along etc. Just pray it doesn't blow up anytime soon.


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## theasxgorilla (24 December 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> . . not that this is a bad thing. As housing is no longer reachable for this demographic and they no longer need to put money away for the Mortgage, there is so much more disposal income to help keep the economy going, to underpin company profits, keep unemployment low, help China along etc. Just pray it doesn't blow up anytime soon.




...and to reciprocate into higher share prices which those of us who are comfortable trading from our over-priced homes get to enjoy.


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## YChromozome (24 December 2006)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> there is so much more disposal income to help keep the economy going, to underpin company profits, keep unemployment low, help China along etc. Just pray it doesn't blow up anytime soon.




There is also the wealth effect. When houses are going up, people will spend more.

I guess neither helped today. Something derailed despite personal loans up to buy Christmas presents. Initial consumer spending looks down. All hopes are now set on Boxing day.

Following Michael Selway's links on Peter Schiff here is more :
US pessimists say house price crash is inevitable 



> The housing market is a crucial component of consumer spending, which, in turn, is a crucial driver of the economy. When consumers are confident that the value of their house is rising, they are happy to take out loans against their properties to spend on goods and services.




I guess today's consumer spending reflects stagnate house price growth this year.



> Leading the pessimists is Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, a broker based in Connecticut. He argues that house prices will experience an unprecedented collapse, falling by as much as 70 per cent in some areas.
> 
> If a house has risen in value several times over in recent years, then it is ludicrous to think that it cannot fall by that amount, he says, drawing a comparison with the dot-com boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
> 
> Two reports out yesterday appear to bolster Mr Schiff’s argument. The first, from George Wimpey, gave warning that the housebuilder faced “very poor” conditions in the US, where cancellation rates averaged 50 per cent in the second half and the forward order book was worth 68 per cent less than a year ago. In the second, it emerged that US mortgage applications slumped by 10.2 per cent last week compared with the previous week.




Probably the only thing stopping the housing market falling is a trigger? Recession ?


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## michael_selway (18 February 2007)

New House prices out for Dec 06 quarter

http://www.homepriceguide.com/media_release/Home Price Guide Media Release 020207.pdf






12 month change is still +ve except sydney unti prices!

thx

MS


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## michael_selway (21 February 2007)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...o-surge-in-2007/2007/02/21/1171733841270.html

he appears bullish...

thx

MS


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