# Your latest trade based on T/A



## gregcourageous (10 September 2007)

Hello... 

I've been doing a stack of research on Technical Analysis. I've got the concepts down, and now its time to start practicing on my demo account, and possibly small amounts of real $$$'s with nice tight stops.

I was wondering if any of you long time technical traders can share with me your last few trades, both successful and unsuccessful. 

I've been focusing on the ASX top 20, and have been watching telstra closely. IF the US markets stay stable tonight, i think telstra could be due to bounce. What do you think?


----------



## CFD (11 September 2007)

Hi GC, I do not qualify for comment as a "you long time technical traders" but in the absence of others replies thought I would offer this comment.

Tight money management is critical, but "nice tight stops" has cost me more that anything else so far, as it's surprising how you get a spike against you just before the move you wanted. You need to give it some room to move with wider stops at the expense of a small number of shares, thereby giving you the same dollar risk.

Edit: In relation to the chart, imho when using straight lines you have to let them fall where they land (if you know what I mean). If you draw such a line between 9/8 and 6/9 the top line should be horizontal at about the $4.44 mark. This would give you the makings of a nice ascending triangle, of which there is a lengthy thread on this forum.


----------



## greenfs (11 September 2007)

I doubt if there will be much of a bounce on 11/9 if you get my drift. More likely the market will head south.


----------



## stevo (12 September 2007)

gregcourageous
I have no advice to give on Telstra except to say that I haven't had a buy signal on the stock since last decade and that I avoid stocks in a long term downtrend or sideways movement. I have no idea what TLS might do over the next year. 

Some previous trades I have made are at;

http://drawdown.blogspot.com/2007/08/good-bad-and-ugly.html

best wishes

stevo


----------



## Nick Radge (12 September 2007)

Here is one I suggested 2 nights ago. It activated yesterday...








*BOTTOM LINE
10/9:*
EW Trend: Up (?)
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
*10/8:*
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS

10/9:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 40 secs)
Prices have drifted lower off the intermediate highs that followed the sell off. The last review suggested that we could see $25.75 and that's exactly what we got, to the cent. There is one very notable pattern on this chart that offers up some very specific information and that is the price and volume activity on that major low mid last month. You can clearly see that this was panic selling because quite frankly there is no other way prices could move that distance in such a brief time. However, the conclusion we need to take away here is that the panic selling was met by buyers equal and stronger than that selling. The close of that specific session was well off the lows and the volume was ultra high. We need to think result and effort. High volume means a lot of effort. A lot of transactions. The result was a high close. So if we have a lot of effort and a high close we must objectively consider that demand, that is buyers, overwhelmed the panicked sellers. This background information offers no ambiguity. Its clearly bullish information. An aggressive buyer looking for a low risk/high reward trade could buy on a breach of today's high of $28.31 and place a protective stop at $27.95. This is what I will suggest for the Elliott Wave portfolio. A more passive trader could look to buy on penetration of $29.30 to allow inertia carry their position higher. If this analysis is correct, we should expect to see $32.00 again as a minimum.
*10/8:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 13 secs)
Prices managed to push higher and funnily enough filled the gap before starting it course lower again. Patterns repeat time and again. Notice how the volume over the last week has been low? A low volume advance suggests "no demand" and today, with prices turning lower again, we have an increase in volume once again. There is now a good chance that we'll see prices start to move lower again now, but we must be careful of the background strength seen earlier this month. There was quite distinctive demand showing and we must assume it will reappear on another test. From a theoretical perspective we could continue to trade lower to $26.00 and if the broad global contagion persists especially with lending practices under close scrutiny we may well see it happen. An aggressive trader could look at short position on further weakness, but any signs of demand entering at those recent lows would be a signal to take defensive action.

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

10/9:*
The larger pattern unfolded in a 3-wave move and culminated in a clear blow-off low and thrust back just as quick. This is impulsive activity and seeing as its been followed by a smaller 3-wave decline would should expect that we've now witnessed a wave-ii or -b low. The minimum upside target is $32.06 with further gains possible if the broader market can shake off its blues. The wave equality of this most recent 3-wave move is almost exact in both time and price. Wave-c extended 3c further but both waves took 3-days apiece to complete. The depth of the retracement is a little shy of what is normally expected just missing out on tagging the 50.0% level. Today's weakness also partially filled a gap left on the way higher. A hit of the 50.0% retracement level would have closed that gap perfectly. Today saw prices gap lower, close on the highs and did so on respectable volume and against the broader market's weakness. I think the combination of this plus the wave equality and the background strength of the blow off low offers a good opportunity.
*10/8:*
A nice gap fill to terminate wave-iv. Also of note is that yesterdays rejection coincided with the lower side of the old consolidation. Another example of old support becoming new resistance. We should no start to trade lower into the wave-v. Normally I'd be tempted to go short but with the background strength and the possibility of bullish divergence developing in the broader market I am a little hesitant. That said, I guess if any sector is going to come under pressure from the current global woes it will be the banks. Less so the Big-4, but they'll still feel the heat. If the lows are breached and the wave-v extends fully the target is $25.75.



_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## juw177 (12 September 2007)

Took me a bit to work this out but Nick's chart is a chart of ANZ. Interesting analysis.


----------



## Nick Radge (13 September 2007)

Sorry. Yes, ANZ - a minor piece of information!

Stop moved to breakeven today.


----------



## Nick Radge (13 September 2007)

ANZ stopped at b/even. No harm done.

Here's one put to subscribers from last night in ASX Limited (ASX). Activated today:







*BOTTOM LINE 
12/9:*
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS 
12/9:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 48 secs)
Prices are showing some signs of faltering right here and it may well be that ASX starts to slip, at least in the short term, back toward the mid-August lows. This thinking places the stock in alignment with the expected trajectory of the broader market. Several volume and price considerations to consider here. The last week or so has seen prices rise but volume has been lacking. It appears that buyers aren't overly compelled at these higher levels. The fact that we're seeing volume dry up as we approach the all-time highs may mean the stock is not quite ready to go on with it. Today saw prices gap higher on the positive US lead but fail into the close. Volume was up in comparison to recent activity and with the low close we should conclude that today was dignified by sellers. From a trading perspective we do have a shorting opportunity should prices breach today's lows of $49.20. A protective stop could be placed above today's high to keep risk minimal although placement at the all-time highs would offer some wiggle room. If we're to see the expected decline, then the risk/reward being offered is well worth the trade.   

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 
12/9:*
Todays price action also terminated at the 78.6% retracement of the July/August decline. Whilst 78.6% is a well known Fibonacci retracement level its not one that I take a great deal of note of. However, the rejection and volume information are compelling. We also have a 3-wave advance off the significant lows although equality is yet to be reached. Comfort from this corrective bounce would come on a break of the wave-a high set at $48.09. Obviously waiting for a decline down through there severely deprives the trader of a high risk/reward opportunity. Maintaining a high risk/reward over and above accuracy is paramount to success even though we have been brought up through our schooling years to only accept high levels of accuracy (read grades). How far can this decline take us? The mid-August lows show very compelling demand which cannot be taken lightly. It is obvious that those buyers thought the stock a bargain back there and any retest should also be met by the same level of interest. In basic terms I would not be expecting prices to decline too far through $42.00 again.  


_This email may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (20 September 2007)

Thanks Nick for bringing this one to my attention. I usually steer away from the stocks of over $50.

I shorted this one this week and had success, closing at $48.46. I just took another short at $49.78. The buying side looks a bit patchy.....

Lets see where it goes...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 September 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Thanks Nick for bringing this one to my attention. I usually steer away from the stocks of over $50.
> 
> I shorted this one this week and had success, closing at $48.46. I just took another short at $49.78. The buying side looks a bit patchy.....
> 
> Lets see where it goes...



The trade still is open. It finished today at $49.80. As you can see I am losing. But it aint over yet! This will be my last trade I post on the forums.


----------



## wayneL (21 September 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> The trade still is open. It finished today at $49.80. As you can see I am losing. But it aint over yet! This will be my last trade I post on the forums.



Snake,

It's Murphy's Law
Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2) 

Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.


----------



## wavepicker (21 September 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> The trade still is open. It finished today at $49.80. As you can see I am losing. But it aint over yet! This will be my last trade I post on the forums.





Snake,

I reckon you just might see some fireworks after the first week of next month on the short side, this is somewhat of a struggling move up by ASX, but time is most important and ASX like quite a few other stoxx appears to be chewing up time at present, if you can afford the time be patient.


Just my 2 c

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 September 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Snake,
> 
> I reckon you just might see some fireworks after the first week of next month on the short side, this is somewhat of a struggling move up by ASX, but time is most important and ASX like quite a few other stoxx appears to be chewing up time at present, if you can afford the time be patient.
> 
> ...




Hi Wave,

I tend to agree and am prepared to wait for this one. The weekly shows a weakening advance. 

Wayne,

Hopefully Murphy's law doesnt strike me.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 September 2007)

Stopped out this morning at $50.48.


----------



## Nick Radge (24 September 2007)

fwiw, I exited on the 19th at $49.39


----------



## wavepicker (24 September 2007)

Last trade taken was Thursday 13th September on BNB.

A great example of a high probability EW setup with good RR.

BNB impulsed down in a clear 5 wave structure from July 16th. Since then has moved up in what appears a wave A(red wave A), and moved into a consolidation which appears to be a wave B contracting triangle(blue abcde). Trade was initiated as follows:-

-Vehicle: BNB $ 26 Oct call option @ $0.55
-Price of underlying @ $23.22(apex of contracting triangle wave e)
-Target price: $28+(measuredmove, based on height of triangle added to blue wave e)
-Exit Strategy:Take Partial profits @ $26+(assuming it get's there, leave 
remainder till primary target reached.
-Contingency Strategy: Close Position Fully if price action falls under blue wave c low of $22.95 at trade will be invalidated(only 27c risk) OR market fails to move in desired direction within 4 trading days


Time cycles indicate that red wave C has a probability of completing in the first week of October which is a significant period for broader market to complete a major cycle, at which point will look to heavily short the market.

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (25 September 2007)

My latest trade is with QOL which I took at $0.355 cents.
Today it has pushed on only to come back a bit but hold. I am expecting to hold for a while not a few days. 
Here is my delayed data chart as of yesterday's close:


----------



## buggalug (26 September 2007)

Yesterday I took a small position in NCM, just above $27, I'm hoping this is a new support level that we will see a bounce off. I'll be using a trailing stop as my exit.


----------



## Nick Radge (27 September 2007)

Here is one in CXP. Nice 3-wave counter trend dip showing wave equality as well as hitting the 61.8% retracement. Volume into these lows is very positive that shows sellers being overcome by buyers. Also have my blue trigger bars..







_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## buggalug (27 September 2007)

Nick Radge said:


> Here is one in CXP. Nice 3-wave counter trend dip showing wave equality as well as hitting the 61.8% retracement. Volume into these lows is very positive that shows sellers being overcome by buyers. Also have my blue trigger bars..
> 
> _This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._




Nick,

I really appreciate you posting these, it's good to see how the pro's approach things.

Cheers


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 September 2007)

Placed a trade today, long TTS. Looking for a bounce back soonish back to the first target of $4.60. Very nice Elliott Wave formation on the way down here for TTS. This is a typical A,B,C three wave corrective pattern, with Wave C showing the typical 5 wave movement. The two support lines I drew in, correspond to both previous resistance turned support, and the full 1.618x wave extension of Wave A to form Wave C.

The target is the 50% retracement level from the all time highs to recent lows which also corresponds to a strong level of resistance. Possibly entered the trade too soon, as may procrastinate for a while, however the high R/R Ratio (my stop is $3.82), suggested to me this is a valid trade.


----------



## Nick Radge (27 September 2007)

ahhh...very good Lachlan6.


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 September 2007)

Cheers Nick. Learning from the master :


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 September 2007)

Gday Nick. I am looking for a quick short trade with the market at these levels. A few have popped up and I will post two. Mind you, I don't expect a really deep retracement from the market when it does eventually come back, so these trades will probably be in and out very quickly. 

(BNB)- Weak close today amidst a strong market overall. Sellers may be coming in whilst that 50% level from June highs to August lows is quite close to recent price action. The five wave movement down rule stipulates a consequent three wave movement up, which _may_ have finished here for the time being. Again, would look to put my stop above the 50% level and exit at around $24.80.

(AWC)- I have not been too convinced by the rally up since mid August for AWC, and today was a weak close on big volume. Furthermore, it coinicided with the gap refill level of resistance and the 61.8% retracement level from July highs to August lows. _May_ be putting in large A,B,C corrective pattern at the moment, however I favour a short term downward bias, with a possible stop at $7.48.


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 September 2007)

Missed out on your Short recommendation on ALL last night. This was a prime example of a short in this current market. Hope you got on board. Cheers, Lachie.


----------



## Porper (27 September 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Placed a trade today, long TTS. Looking for a bounce back soonish back to the first target of $4.60. Very nice Elliott Wave formation on the way down here for TTS. This is a typical A,B,C three wave corrective pattern, with Wave C showing the typical 5 wave movement. The two support lines I drew in, correspond to both previous resistance turned support, and the full 1.618x wave extension of Wave A to form Wave C.
> 
> The target is the 50% retracement level from the all time highs to recent lows which also corresponds to a strong level of resistance. Possibly entered the trade too soon, as may procrastinate for a while, however the high R/R Ratio (my stop is $3.82), suggested to me this is a valid trade.





Yes, well done Lachlan, excellent looking chart &  count.
Just to add my 2c, there are 2 potential reversal set ups, 1 where you have drawn in, which seems highly probable given the stopping volume right on target.

If prices were to drift lower there is a high probability of support around 3.50, the next possible reversal set up zone.


----------



## Nick Radge (27 September 2007)

AWC is interesting. The squeeze higher and failure today has created what is termed a throwover. These appear on a breach of an ending diagonal or wedge pattern. The measured move is back t the start of the wedge at $6.59. Obviously if the next impulse take hold we could travel lower.








_
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 September 2007)

Nice posts Lachlan!
This could be a good thread if more had a crack at it.


----------



## glenn_r (28 September 2007)

I've been a bit of a lurker on this forum, but here is a possible triple bottom reversal with volume setup with a good R/R on JHX I found this morning doing one of my daily scans.


----------



## Lachlan6 (28 September 2007)

Yes, I also like what you have seen Glenn. I went long as a CFD trade on JHX yesterday at $7.12. Like the short term prospects here for a bounce. Movement down, three wave corrective pattern, with Wave C possibly conforming to the typical five wave movement. What I really like about the potential for a major bottom here though, is the big divergence in the MACD coupled with the triple bottom coinciding with this major level of support. In other words a very tight stop can be placed for a high R/R trade, with the first target at around $8.60, being the 50% level of the Feb highs to August lows. This level is also around a level of what should be strong resistance. 

I have also posted a weekly chart just to show the strong likelihood of a bounce, due to both the horizontal support and uptrending support lines converging at these levels.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 September 2007)

Yes, this seems like a nice try here. Small risk with heaps of reward potential.
I will take a trade at market.


----------



## MattB (28 September 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Last trade taken was Thursday 13th September on BNB.



Hey Wavepicker... I also picked up some BNB recently, but my train of thought was long term, whereas your TA seems to predict it will drop a fair bit soon?

The reasoning behind my entry was its long term (5/10yr) uptrend, evident in charts... and the fact that, considering it's uptrend, it is currently near the bottom of the channel and moving up again.
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=bnb

I'm completely ignorant to how EW works... and, as I'm working with BNB's chart history, I would have thought that we'd be seeing $30 in perhaps a month?  Still learning heaps, and keen to hear your input on this!  

Cheers,
Matt


----------



## Lachlan6 (28 September 2007)

Another one I entered today was (TAH), based on a few pieces of evidence. I really like the look of both the daily and weekly on this one, as it looks primed for a bounce. The weekly shows a *really* strong level of support at around $15 for the last three years! This cannot be ignored in my opinion, and the latest decline may be a case of panic overselling due to Equine Influenza. 

The daily has displayed a definite 5 wave decline, which was arrested with the bullish engulfing pattern late last month. Since the stock has effectively gone sideways and has possibly put in a small a,b,c correction (not shown). Very nice volume relationship, rising all week with huge volume today, so far. However the one thing to really stand out again was the very nice divergence in the MACD, with price. I put my stop at $14.81 for a very nice possible R/R trade.

Expect a possible three wave advance with the first target market at $17.20.


----------



## Lachlan6 (28 September 2007)

Apologies. The first three wave count on the daily TAH chart was meant to look like this.


----------



## glenn_r (28 September 2007)

I found a couple of flags to wave tomorrow when the Mighty Cats thump Port Power


----------



## Dutchy3 (28 September 2007)

AUN ... posted under the thread of the same name.

Does anyone have some inside knowledge as to why this jumped 10+% today?. Perhaps if anyone is kind enough to reply the response might be posted under the AUN thread rather later the flow in this one


----------



## wavepicker (28 September 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Last trade taken was Thursday 13th September on BNB.
> 
> A great example of a high probability EW setup with good RR.
> 
> ...




Target almost reached, positioned closed out today fully. Option price $2.32.

have taken a new long position in NWS today at $26.71. Almost idendital setup as BNB. NWS has completed a 5 wave decline from Feb 2007 High of $32.40. Has traced out what appears to be a green  wave A up and is now completing a wave B contracting triangle. If this works out the C wave that follows should push prices to a target of $28.50  no later than 18/10/07, but it could be as early as 5/10/07. A break below $26.26( green Wave B triangle blue wave c low) will invalidate this setup. (Only $0.45 risk).

Have an important trend change time window starting today through to end of next week for the market, so will be looking to go short the market late next week

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (28 September 2007)

MattB said:


> Hey Wavepicker... I also picked up some BNB recently, but my train of thought was long term, whereas your TA seems to predict it will drop a fair bit soon?
> 
> The reasoning behind my entry was its long term (5/10yr) uptrend, evident in charts... and the fact that, considering it's uptrend, it is currently near the bottom of the channel and moving up again.
> http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=bnb
> ...




Hello Matt,

My near term target has been reached. If the pattern plays out OK, I am expecting lower prices into mid November or at least a re test of the lows to set up nicely for a long term bullish position in BNB, which I hope to take up a position in.

Cheers


----------



## Lachlan6 (28 September 2007)

Gday Wavepicker. I went short some today at average price of $27.65. Notice the HUGE volume today, the biggest all month. I think this is primed for a small retracement, back to around $24. Notice the comparatively smaller volume on the way up since late Sep. Big resistance may (and probably already has) arise in this gap refill level, which also happens to coincide with the 61.8% retracement level (see earlier posted chart). I like the longer term prospects of BNB, but I feel it has run the course over the short term.


----------



## trishan9390 (28 September 2007)

Hi Guys,
Just getting into trading and learning as many chart patterns as possible. I was wondering if you could make a good suggestion for a book/website that I could read up on waver patterns etc. 

Thanks.


----------



## wavepicker (28 September 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Gday Wavepicker. I went short some today at average price of $27.65. Notice the HUGE volume today, the biggest all month. I think this is primed for a small retracement, back to around $24. Notice the comparatively smaller volume on the way up since late Sep. Big resistance may (and probably already has) arise in this gap refill level, which also happens to coincide with the 61.8% retracement level (see earlier posted chart). I like the longer term prospects of BNB, but I feel it has run the course over the short term.





hello lachlan,

Good luck with your trade, I think this must be getting close, not 100% sure it is there just yet but I do have a fib turn date today (28th Sep) plus or minus one day, so you might be in luck with this one!!. Hopefully the market is plays ball with our thoughts!!  Although I consider this a short, I didn't short this today as I am looking at both JBM and STO to short instead in preference, looking to position next week

PS I have attached my take on TAH, I know it differs somewhat from what you have posted, but just another perspective

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge (28 September 2007)

trishan9390,

Here are some freebies on the theory:

Elliott Wave Int

Elliott Wave Basics

I do it in real time without hindsight but it's not free.
www.thechartist.com.au

Plenty of good books as well. You can't go past Prechter for theory. Do a wikipedia search or go to www.elliottwave.com as I think they have some book bundle deals. Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading is a great book for practical application as is Fibonacci & Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer. Sounds hard, but is well worth the read.

Of course you have Wavepicker and Mags (where is the old boy?) here who are both very well versed in it and always offer a thought provoking view.

Enjoy your journey.


----------



## wavepicker (28 September 2007)

Nick Radge said:


> Mags (where is the old boy?)




Hello Nick,

Mag has relocated to the land of Uncle Sam.  It's been pretty hectic for him settling in, but I am sure we will hear from him in good time.

Cheers


----------



## soso (28 September 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Hello Nick,
> 
> Mag has relocated to the land of Uncle Sam.  It's been pretty hectic for him settling in, but I am sure we will hear from him in good time.
> 
> Cheers




I miss his musings, the only reason I'm in this forum. Hope to hear from him soon


----------



## trishan9390 (28 September 2007)

So if I understand this correctly, the chart I have attached shows signs of an impulse wave and if it is indeed an impulse wave, jumping on board now would be a wise thing with targets above $13.40?


----------



## wavepicker (28 September 2007)

trishan9390 said:


> So if I understand this correctly, the chart I have attached shows signs of an impulse wave and if it is indeed an impulse wave, jumping on board now would be a wise thing with targets above $13.40?




Trishan,

The Three Rules of Elliott(For five wave Impulse waves):-

- Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1
- Wave 3 is never the shortest wave
- Wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1

Follow these rules and you and you will be doing something that quite a few practioners are not doing correctly!


The Three Guidelines Of Elliott(For five wave impulse waves)

-The three-wave correction following an impulse usually terminates within the price territory of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree

-If wave 2 is sharp and steep, wave 4 is usually a sideways correction, and vice versa

-The wave most likely to extend is wave 3; the next most likely is wave 5.

Hope this helps


----------



## Nick Radge (28 September 2007)

> the only reason I'm in this forum. Hope to hear from him soon




Best you get a life then soso. Thats what we get with our first post...?..please.

Waves, I'll send you a PM.

Trishan,
No. Take a look at those pages. Take your time. There is no hurry. Opportunities are for ever available. Take the time to learn the craft. Listen to what waves says. Read. Read. Read. Cheap. Cheap. Cheap. Once you have read, start taking alook at the charts. Find the impulses. Find the corrections. Your goal is to recognize the shape of the corrections so you can trade the nest impulse. That is where the easy money is made.


----------



## BentRod (28 September 2007)

Nice trade Waves.

Thanks for posting.


----------



## buggalug (28 September 2007)

Hey Guys,

Can anyone let me know if I'm on the right track here with PBL?

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge (29 September 2007)

buggalug,
You have 7 waves off the highs. A 7-wave pattern is a sign of a double zigzag correction or an extended impulse. The fac that the move off the lows has surpassed old resistance levels points to the double zig zag scenario. Annotated as:

abc-x-abc

You will also see other clues. The absolute low is an island reversal and is accompanied with strong bullish volume. There is a high chance its a significant low. Looking for non-correlated evidence such as this helps the count. True theorists would dispel other data such as this, but I feel it really makes a big difference.


We're probably impulsing higher now but it would pay to look at the next highest degree pattern to be sure.


----------



## GreatPig (29 September 2007)

Here's a recent successful one (so far) of mine. Analysis has nothing to do with EW though.

Bought it on the combination of the island reversal and apparent forming of an inverted H&S pattern, although that wasn't complete at the time (purchase date shown by blue triangle at bottom). Also, the island gap was right around the 38.2% Fib level of the previous rise, which coincided with a significant support/resistance level from late 2005 & early 2006.

The first image has the details of the trade along the top (identity info removed). The gain figure allows for entry brokerage only. I usually buy more than $10K but that was all the funds I had left at the time.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## GreatPig (29 September 2007)

And just for some balance, one a while ago that wasn't so hot :

Bought on what looked like another move up from a small consolidation period as part of a longer uptrend. Little did I know it was to be the very peak day of the trend 

Looks kinda interesting again now though. A sort-of inverted H&S pattern with the shoulders on the 50% Fib level and the head down to the 61.8% level. Is currently around the neckline again (if you draw an approximate horizontal neckline) just above the 38.2% Fib level, so will be interesting to see if it will break up or not. Probably a bad H&S example, but interesting none-the-less.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## happytrader (29 September 2007)

Entered BSL on Thursday arvo because I thought it was cheap enough to take a punt on. The stock has been trading within a $10.00 - $12.00 range. Went exdividend on 24 September. Weekly pattern looks promising. I'm happy to exit at $11.00.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## wavepicker (29 September 2007)

Great trades GP, thanks for sharing your analysis.

It doesn't matter what form of TA you use, if one applies themselves and has a decent game plan, some excellent trades are possible.


Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 September 2007)

happytrader said:


> Entered BSL on Thursday arvo because I thought it was cheap enough to take a punt on. The stock has been trading within a $10.00 - $12.00 range. Went exdividend on 24 September. Weekly pattern looks promising. I'm happy to exit at $11.00.Cheers
> Happytrader




Interesting wording Happytrader 

GP, Wave, others, thanks for the posts.


----------



## GreatPig (29 September 2007)

Thanks Wavepicker.

Another I entered a few days ago based on the break above the recent downward trend line and also what looks like another inverted H&S pattern. Only up a little at the moment, and with the size moves this one can make in one day, anything could still happen.

Consolidating (I hope) above the recent support level, with the peak three days ago being around the H&S target price. Hoping of course that it can keep going to new highs, but keeping a close eye on it.

Probably should have entered a couple of days earlier, but didn't have any funds available then.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 September 2007)

GreatPig said:


> Thanks Wavepicker.
> 
> Another I entered a few days ago based on the break above the recent downward trend line and also what looks like another inverted H&S pattern. Only up a little at the moment, and with the size moves this one can make in one day, anything could still happen.
> 
> ...




GP,
Sorry, but what software are you using?


----------



## GreatPig (29 September 2007)

AmiBroker.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 September 2007)

GreatPig said:


> AmiBroker.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP



Thanks
Snake


----------



## buggalug (30 September 2007)

Nick Radge said:


> buggalug,
> You have 7 waves off the highs. A 7-wave pattern is a sign of a double zigzag correction or an extended impulse. The fac that the move off the lows has surpassed old resistance levels points to the double zig zag scenario. Annotated as:
> 
> abc-x-abc
> ...




Thanks Nick, I'll try and get my head around that  I've got a couple of q's before I sign up to your service, i'll pm them.

I'm curious on everyones take on AWB, fell alot during 2006, recovered to 50% of the high around July and is now sitting a what looks to be a strong support level.


----------



## nomore4s (1 October 2007)

Wavepicker/Nick/Anyone

Is this a valid 3 wave decline? Don't use EW in my trading currently but am always looking to learn.

Will post further analysis in the next post, with more charts.


----------



## nomore4s (1 October 2007)

As per post above, this is a trade I'm currently looking at, haven't entered as yet.

Looks to be very good support at the $13.15 level with both the horizontal support and the long term trendline (about 3 years) meeting at the latest low at $13.21 on 18/09. Support on the weekly chart is also very strong.

There are 2 ways I'm looking at playing this, 1 is a shorter term more aggressive trade with entry at a close above $13.90 and a stop at $13.50 but a better stop would probably be at below long term support at $13.15, just blows the risk reward out a bit, target for this trade would be to resistance at around $15.00 - $15.20.
The 2nd option would be a longer term trade off the weekly chart with entry with a break through $14.00 and the stop at $13.15, target would be around $16.50ish.


----------



## rnr (2 October 2007)

Help needed please!!

Would those members that adopt EW theory in the conduct of their Technical Analysis please spare a few minutes of their time to help me out?

One of the mechanical systems that I currently trade is a reversion system which has resulted in SLX (Silex Systems) coming up on my radar screen for a possible trade on Tuesday (2nd Oct).

Whilst I have been following the various posts made on ASF that cover this topic I must say that I am struggling to the max to come to grips with wave counts and the interpretation or effect of differing levels of volume.

Today the SP has retraced 61.8% from its August low – September high.

I would greatly appreciate your thoughts, opinions or analysis on the current wave count and etcetera for SLX and also acknowledge that anything posted is only an opinion and I will seek further advice as required.

Thanks in advance,
rnr


----------



## wavepicker (2 October 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Wavepicker/Nick/Anyone
> 
> Is this a valid 3 wave decline? Don't use EW in my trading currently but am always looking to learn.
> 
> Will post further analysis in the next post, with more charts.




Count looks good nomore4, but there is more than one way to count this as well. ie a continued more complex correction or a series of sundividing 1-2,1-2,1-2 wave structures. That is why confirmation using other methods is important. Volome in particular does not seem to be conforming a  solid upmove at present. Would be at least waiting for a higher low here as some type of confirmation before jumping in and also keeping tight stops at previous swing low in case it doesn't.


PS I like to trade EW setups where more than one type of count point to the same conclusion ie at least for the short to 
medium term


RNR

At a quick glance SLX looks like it might head lower, will post a chart later in the day. We had 5 waves down from July peak and now 3 waves up with a continuation of the trend down. Three waves always unfold against the one larger trend, in this case the one larger is down. The only exception to this would be that if it found support here and the upward rally becomes a more complex affair but will more than likely be fully retraced when finished.



Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge (2 October 2007)

rnr,
If you're trading a mechanical system, then leave the EW and discretionary element out of it.


----------



## rnr (2 October 2007)

Hi wavepicker,

Thanks for taking the time to respond to my request and your offer to post a chart later in the day would help make it a whole lot easier to visualise and understand your assessment.

Regards,
rnr


----------



## rnr (2 October 2007)

Hi Nick,

Thanks for your comments and although I understand that if I'm trading a mechanical system there can be no allowance for discretion and consequently EW should not be a consideration as it relies on interpretation.

Every now & then when a security appears on the radar I look back, using the MetaStock Expert  Function, to see how this share has performed previously using this system.

Whilst reviewing SLX I applied the Fibonacci Retracement to the chart and noticed that the SP was at a level of 61.8% which I believed, from reading the various posts on ASF, to be a significant result!
Hence the reason for my question and I am eagerly awaiting wavepickers chart post before I look at the SLX movement for the day.

Regards,
rnr


----------



## Boggo (2 October 2007)

Giday rnr

This is from MTPredictor, I haven't done any news/volume etc research on this, just posting the chart.
The stop is a long way from the entry, some R/R calcs required.


----------



## wavepicker (2 October 2007)

rnr said:


> Hi wavepicker,
> 
> Thanks for taking the time to respond to my request and your offer to post a chart later in the day would help make it a whole lot easier to visualise and understand your assessment.
> 
> ...





Hello rnr,

This this is a difficult pattern to make a clear cut EW count on. It's very corrective in nature and there are multiple wave counts implying different possibilities. I have labelled chart with the count and pattern which I think best describes the situation. Near term there appears slightly higher probabilty that prices may move higher due to a cycle point high due in late October to mid November. As such this may move higher before continuing bearishly or at least re testing the lows later on. This is a the problem with very complex corrective patterns

As there are quite a few possibilities with this I personally would consider trading it, I prefer to stick to the simple 5's and 3's but that is just me


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2007)

Hi Wave,

Would you say the volume level is high enough for EW practice? It is consistantly under 1 million SLX. Does the lighter volume reduce the efficacy to some extent?


----------



## wavepicker (2 October 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi Wave,
> 
> Would you say the volume level is high enough for EW practice? It is consistantly under 1 million SLX. Does the lighter volume reduce the efficacy to some extent?





Absolutely Snake.

I tend to use EW more so in Indices, Commodiities and Currencies where you have better chance of seeing textbook patterns.

Although on occasion I take trades based on EW with the more liquid stocks when the high probability patterns present themselves, generally I use other methods to help quantify the EW analysis when there appear to be ambiguities

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Absolutely Snake.
> 
> I tend to use EW more so in Indices, Commodiities and Currencies where you have better chance of seeing textbook patterns.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that Wave. 
Are those higher probability patterns statistically validated if at all able to be tested?


----------



## happytrader (3 October 2007)

Entered AWC this arvo because it looks like it has support at $7.00 and I like the weekly setup. Naturally I feel its cheap enough to take a punt on. I'm happy to exit at or close to $7.50

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## Nick Radge (3 October 2007)

Long a few MFS...


----------



## wavepicker (4 October 2007)

Decided to short the XJO last night.

Have placed a stop at 6744.

Reasoning behind trade: We had a 3 wave structure down from the 16th July to 17th August. We have had another 3 wave advance so far from the 17th August low. This may be an irregular flat correction in progress from the 16th of July that is incomplete. If this is the case then we need another impulse to at least re test the lows(17th August) perhaps go further. 

Sentiment at present in the market can be described as hyper bullish, so this is well worth a go IMO.

Current price action also coincides with an important cycle point high on the 5th October plus or minus one day(market is also 34 fibonacci trading days up from Aug 17 low), so this this could continue till Monday bullishly within our time window. The next important cycle point is 14/15th November.(Not sure whether this will mark a high or a low- hoping for a low!!)

Trade Contingencies: If the pattern of trend is showing a struggle down that appears corrective instead of impulse, this maybe simply a second degree countertrend(These usually last 11-14 days)  instead of a developing impulse.

As such if this is the case all bets are off! The market will most likely continue bullishly till the next major trend change window in mid to late Jan 2008 where there are much larger cycle points coming together. Perhaps start of something larger than last correction.

Cheers


----------



## trishan9390 (4 October 2007)

Boggo said:


> Giday rnr
> 
> This is from MTPredictor, I haven't done any news/volume etc research on this, just posting the chart.
> The stop is a long way from the entry, some R/R calcs required.




Up 11% at the time of writing this post. Nice one.


----------



## rub92me (4 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Decided to short the XJO last night.
> 
> Have placed a stop at 6744.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the post wavepicker, very informative. I did a similar thing (shorting SPI), with slightly wider stop on the upside once it looked it didn't want to storm past the 6700-6720 barrier.
How would you recognise a 'second degree countertrend' as opposed to an impulse move? I'm using 6470-6500 as the first target for the next 2 weeks. If it doesn't drop (significantly) below that, then I'll probably take it out and see what develops next. (If I don't get stopped out before that of course).


----------



## wavepicker (4 October 2007)

rub92me said:


> Thanks for the post wavepicker, very informative. I did a similar thing (shorting SPI), with slightly wider stop on the upside once it looked it didn't want to storm past the 6700-6720 barrier.
> How would you recognise a 'second degree countertrend' as opposed to an impulse move? I'm using 6470-6500 as the first target for the next 2 weeks. If it doesn't drop (significantly) below that, then I'll probably take it out and see what develops next. (If I don't get stopped out before that of course).





That is quite easy rub92me,

most corrections are struggling moves down and have corrective hallmarks, ie they don't resemble a normal trend or impulse as there are no spaces consolidations and previous support levels.  

Idon't have a chart handy, but look at the DJIA for example from 2000-2003. It is a struggling ,overlapping, corrective  move down and very messy. The subsequent move up from the 2003 low is a clean impluse and is more like a normal type of trend.

Hope this helps


----------



## Kauri (4 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Decided to short the XJO last night.
> 
> Have placed a stop at 6744.
> 
> ...



  Hi Waves,
               Miners time routines both show the next couple of days to be potentially important as well...  interesting times..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Lachlan6 (4 October 2007)

Went short some ASX today purely on the chart pattern. It has run hard recently and may need to let off some steam after the recent shooting star pattern. Scaled in at $54.98 then $54.68.


----------



## wavepicker (4 October 2007)

Kauri said:


> Hi Waves,
> Miners time routines both show the next couple of days to be potentially important as well...  interesting times..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Hi Kauri, They should, as what I am using iare probably similar, however I don't own Dynamic Trader yet, have it on my agenda to get it soon!!

Cheers


----------



## Boggo (4 October 2007)

Back to 6400 area over the next few days ??


----------



## Porper (4 October 2007)

Just playing around with some time projections and come up with the possible turning points as per the chart below.

A couple of days around the 10th October could be a possible turning point, after that the 15th November is showing strongly that another turning point could happen.

I see probably the same as everybody else, it could go either way but if I had to have a best guess I would say another few days higher before a pullback to around 6000, then impulse strongly higher again.

I can't find any meaningful projections implying the next couple of days is going to be critical, but I am by no means an expert on time projections yet.


----------



## tech/a (4 October 2007)

SLX went off the planet today.


----------



## wavepicker (4 October 2007)

tech/a said:


> SLX went off the planet today.




Looks my top wave count for SLX actually was the best one after all. Nevertheless, would have needed some nerve to take the trade IMO.


----------



## tech/a (4 October 2007)

Saw it spike back down to $9 today just after i had a look at a 15 min chart.
Didnt have the kahunas and watched it add another Buck 20.


----------



## Lachlan6 (4 October 2007)

Entered CPU long the other day. Possible bounce on the cards. May have or soon to be complete corrective wave down. I have counted a 5 wave downward move off the highs in June, valid as wave 4 does not encroach on wave 1. (Would you make this same count Nick?). If it does move, looking for a bounce to $10.60, coinciding with 61.8% level of highs in June to lows in August whilst also being an important resistance level. Market is looking a little toppy however at the moment, so will watch this carefully pan out.


----------



## rnr (4 October 2007)

Hello Boggo, wavepicker and Nick

Thank you for your various responses to my request for more info.

Boggo

Unfortunately I didn’t really know quite how to interpret the chart and labels until I looked at wavepicker’s chart and then it made more sense. I’m still not quite sure of the impact of the green horizontal bar underneath the “C” unless it is a buy signal with trade rules on the RHS?

Wavepicker

I don’t know the level of automation that exists in AdvanceGET but, given your comments, you’ve certainly provided a considerable amount of detail on the various wave counts which obviously involves your time and thus reduces the time you have available to deal with your own tasks.

Nick

Even though my request went against your grain I appreciate the broader perspective that is displayed in your post of the weekly chart. Would it be fair to say that, given hindsight, the intersection (point) noted on your chart could now be labeled as wave 4 or have I just missed the boat entirely?

To tech/a - thank you for sharing the great news re SLX before I was able to do the daily data download - what an overwhelming feeling to have an investment rise so rapidly in such a short period of time. Oh! By the way tech you surely recall a phone conversation a month or so ago when I said that the long system I traded had a requirement that the “Limit Buy” be lower than the LOW of the previous day (trigger day) so, guess what, I’m only a bystander in the action.

Cheers,
rnr


----------



## Boggo (4 October 2007)

rnr said:


> Boggo
> 
> Unfortunately I didn’t really know quite how to interpret the chart and labels until I looked at wavepicker’s chart and then it made more sense. I’m still not quite sure of the impact of the green horizontal bar underneath the “C” unless it is a buy signal with trade rules on the RHS?




The top orange bar is "Min wave C", middle majenta bar is "Typical wave C" and the bottom green bar is "Max wave C".

The labels on the right are the possible projections if the price follows the rules and turns up. They are then the reverse order going upward, ie. Min, Typical and Max, in the case of this chart it is attempting to predict Wave C and/or Wave 3 potential targets.

Today's action was more a function of news than wave I think, best of it was over when I got home this arvo.


----------



## Nick Radge (5 October 2007)

rnr,
My daily chart shows a clear 5-waves down to the termination of wave-C off that weekly chart. That weekly chart shows some blue signal bars which are an important element. The daily also shows some good strength as far as volume is concern. A perfect a-b-c correction to the 61.8% as well as perfect wave equality of wave-a and -c. Yesterdays rise with gap is certainly wave-3 impulse material.


----------



## Nick Radge (5 October 2007)

lachlan,
the wave count you have shown does not appear to be correct. Wave-4 is too deep and it overlaps the wave-2 lows which is not allowed. Secondly the wave-5 is a 3-wave pattern so its more likely to be part of a corrective move and not an impulse. With that in mind there are some very strong technical indicators showing. The descent of the second decline is much less than the first. There is huge background buying into the August lows and that is THE key to this chart. Yesterday was a tight bar on increased volume. What this means is that buyers are holding the sellers at bay. We know there is large background strength and we're now seeing those same buyers coming back in.






_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Lachlan6 (5 October 2007)

Cheers Nick. When I posted the chart it had a corrective feel to it. Just found it hard to find a place to put the a,b,c waves. I really like the short term volume set up on this. Will wait and see.


----------



## tcoates (5 October 2007)

No need to post a chart here. 

I had bought BBW based on a dip (RSI) on the daily chart and weekly moving average. If you look at the daily chart you will the price went down to about $1.68 in Aug (not looking at the chart presently). 

In the last 2 days - the price managed to get near my original stop. 

Yes, I am lucky. 

The point is that I was FINALLY able to pull the trigger on a stop loss. Any move the funds from the sale into a stock that has today gone up (making a small profit so far). 

Two points:

1. Rather that just watching other stocks go up and sticking with a loser (?) was able to do the 'right' thing.

2. It didn't bother me to sell at a small loss. (I dont have to worry now about 'what if' or 'I should have done this'

Tim


----------



## Boggo (5 October 2007)

Tim
I did similiar with WTF, sold out at an average of 5.372 this morning, lost $235 but got $400 in dividends last month. No room for will it/won't it stocks any more, perform or get out.

Mike


----------



## Sean K (6 October 2007)

WP and MW, just moved your posts to the 'Short term swing trade set ups' thread as they were off topic in here. Your comments and discussion seemed to be more related to that thread. Perhaps there needs to be a dedicated EW thread? I couldn't find one....Cheers.


----------



## Porper (8 October 2007)

AOE came up on my scan over the weekend.

This looks a reasonable set up to me.

Set up is a buy on the break of the minor degree wave 1 high at 2.59, and the initial stop at 2.36 for an agressive trade or 2.36 to leave a bit more room.

Oscilator crossover has occurred so downside should be limited.

Increase in volume at fib retracements as per chart also a positive,that is the projected wave C,larger degree wave 1 and smaller degree wave 1 termination points.


----------



## Nick Radge (8 October 2007)

We've been riding Beach Petroleum higher in this move. I'll be looking to exit longs and reverse into shorts targeting $1.35.







_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## wavepicker (9 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Decided to short the XJO last night.
> 
> Have placed a stop at 6744.
> 
> ...





Nothing changed with trade ATM except added to short position taken on the 3rd.
Market just shy of 6623pts target(actual high today 6695).

A lot of stocks exhausting into highs today, will see where this move takes us!!


----------



## wavepicker (10 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Nothing changed with trade ATM except added to short position taken on the 3rd.
> Market just shy of 6623pts target(actual high today 6695).
> 
> A lot of stocks exhausting into highs today, will see where this move takes us!!





Got squeezed of this one today with my stop at 6744pts. A lot of very bullish talk getting around the traps at present.

I am not a great believer in such hype, what I am a great believer in, is the Pattern of the Trend, Elliott Waves and Time Cycle counts. I had a perfect reversal set up for Friday/Monday. Usually when I get what appears to be perfect Cycle Point, I am rewarded much faster and much more plentiful, as was the case on July 16th and August 17th.

However the market seems to have other ideas ATM, and surpassed that time cycle point. I suspect the Columbus Holiday in the US Monday maybe a contributor as the as the US indices often rally into holidays. But also of importance is the fibonacci time clusters for this time cycle originated as far back as the year 2000, and as this is such long period the the resolution ends up being very large so that instead of plus or minus 1 day it may end up being plus or minus 3 or 4 days. 

As such I am gonna have another crack at this trade in the next few days or even early next week. If nothing happens by end of next week, then this is a dud trade and the bulls will probably end up having good Christams.

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (11 October 2007)

Here is one of my latest trades which I entered today at $11.38. the chart is as of yesterday's close.

One importatn factor is the director's buying level in the background. Over $40 million worth. For the link see my blog.


----------



## CanOz (11 October 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Here is one of my latest trades which I entered today at $11.38. the chart is as of yesterday's close.
> 
> One importatn factor is the director's buying level in the background. Over $40 million worth. For the link see my blog.




Love those volume bubbles Snake...do you use Amibroker to find them?

Cheers,


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (11 October 2007)

CanOz said:


> Love those volume bubbles Snake...do you use Amibroker to find them?
> 
> Cheers,




Hi,

No I just eyeball the charts and look into them a bit. In this case there is some available info on the director buying big. 

Actually I am still trading the hard way by manually going through charts one at a time and looking at them. 

Snake


----------



## CanOz (11 October 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi,
> 
> No I just eyeball the charts and look into them a bit. In this case there is some available info on the director buying big.
> 
> ...





One day when i have some time i want to write an exploration to look for volume bubbles...particularly useful during corrective phases.

Cheers,


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (12 October 2007)

CanOz said:


> One day when i have some time i want to write an exploration to look for volume bubbles...particularly useful during corrective phases.
> 
> Cheers,




Not a bad idea Can! I am hopeless with computers so it is definately beyond me. It helps to have a list of stocks that may be moving into such positions.


----------



## BentRod (12 October 2007)

Guys,
        If your using AB it couldn't get any easier.

Look for a plugin called "powerscan", very easy to use,volume and all sorts of other scans are very simple.

@snake... I'm also long TPI (from $10.46) after that first rise in volume. 
Not really happy with the trade so far as it's not getting on with it .... I'm @ breakeven. 
We have that gap @ $12.30, thats my first target, will we get there??


----------



## chops_a_must (12 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> As such I am gonna have another crack at this trade in the next few days or even early next week. If nothing happens by end of next week, then this is a dud trade and the bulls will probably end up having good Christams.
> 
> Cheers




Looks like that is going to turn out to be a pretty good trade there.

A tonne of short set ups as well out of squeezes by the looks.


----------



## Lachlan6 (12 October 2007)

Gday Snake. Yes looking spot on from both a long term and shorter term swing trade perspective. I have been watching this for a while as believe the fundamentals are great with TPI. Will get in on Monday probably.


----------



## wavepicker (12 October 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Looks like that is going to turn out to be a pretty good trade there.
> 
> A tonne of short set ups as well out of squeezes by the looks.




Have not gone short again on XJO, might wait till Tuesday afternoon as I think it maybe quiet on Monday. I am short the DJIA however and did so Wednesday night.

If this is significant, I was expecting it on Monday/Tuesday not yesterday with a target of 6723. So I am gonna have to do some more work in future to try and improve the timing a little. In contrast the last 2 pivots (16th July and 17th July) where bang on time.

It's actually quite strange, but last nights reversal came after a number of pundits were getting really excited about the futures being up so much, saying that there will be no stopping this market and we will make 7000 easily in the next few days, and have been reversing their comments this morning.

When you start reading stuff like that, the alarm bells start ringing immediately.


----------



## chops_a_must (12 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Have not gone short again on XJO, might wait till Tuesday afternoon as I think it maybe quiet on Monday. I am short the DJIA however and did so Wednesday night.
> 
> If this is significant, I was expecting it on Monday/Tuesday not yesterday with a target of 6723. So I am gonna have to do some more work in future to try and improve the timing a little. In contrast the last 2 pivots (16th July and 17th July) where bang on time.
> 
> ...




I wasn't able to watch it happen live, but on the chart it was a very odd intraday move. Looked like a currency jitter.

This vertical climb has come out of quite bad sentiment I reckon. That's why it has been so brutal a climb. But a test of the previous highs at 6350 would be healthy on the XJO IMO.

I'd also be prepared to take a long on GOLD at the moment, on that previous box play I charted in the gold price thread. Target between 93.50-97.50. That is if I wasn't in the process of having my holdings transferred to another broker.


----------



## wavepicker (12 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> have taken a new long position in NWS today at $26.71. Almost idendital setup as BNB. NWS has completed a 5 wave decline from Feb 2007 High of $32.40. Has traced out what appears to be a green  wave A up and is now completing a wave B contracting triangle. If this works out the C wave that follows should push prices to a target of $28.50  no later than 18/10/07, but it could be as early as 5/10/07. A break below $26.26( green Wave B triangle blue wave c low) will invalidate this setup. (Only $0.45 risk).
> 
> Have an important trend change time window starting today through to end of next week for the market, so will be looking to go short the market late next week
> 
> Cheers




Closed this long trade taken out on NWS back on the 28th Of September with the only a very marginal of gains, options nearing expiry in a few weeks and don't want to hold over weekend.  Prices did not move as far or fast as I had anticipated, and there is an cycle date early next week for a high, but don't want to risk it.

Cheers


----------



## Jadefox (12 October 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Closed this long trade taken out on NWS back on the 28th Of September with the only a very marginal of gains, options nearing expiry in a few weeks and don't want to hold over weekend.  Prices did not move as far or fast as I had anticipated, and there is an cycle date early next week for a high, but don't want to risk it.
> 
> Cheers




Aussie dollar movements frustrate NWS option trades I've found. Simply not enough movement in US shares to offset dollar fluctuations. If/when currencies become a bit more stable it should be easier - particularly a long trade if US$ turns back up.
Appreciate the posts all the same.


----------



## CanOz (12 October 2007)

BentRod said:


> Guys,
> If your using AB it couldn't get any easier.
> 
> Look for a plugin called "powerscan", very easy to use,volume and all sorts of other scans are very simple.




Thanks Bentrod....perfect.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri (12 October 2007)

If the U.S takes a dive tonight I'll be looking at shorting the XJO... by my count the 1or A..2 or B count is out the window now, so am going with this possibly being an intermediate W1 which is near due for a W2 correction... also Miners time routines ( which I don't really put much weight on) are both indicating that based on various past swings a change of trend is just past due...  not to mention my Budgies latest warning..   
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## wavepicker (12 October 2007)

Kauri said:


> If the U.S takes a dive tonight I'll be looking at shorting the XJO... by my count the 1or A..2 or B count is out the window now, so am going with this possibly being an intermediate W1 which is near due for a W2 correction... also Miners time routines ( which I don't really put much weight on) are both indicating that based on various past swings a change of trend is just past due...  not to mention my Budgies latest warning..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Totally agree Kauri, I have been backing this this wave count now for about 3 weeks and expected market finish the pattern off no later than Monday, but trend continued on for another 3/4 days.  

Looks like it the market is finally showing sings of churning at last. Not sure how far down it might go just yet if at all, as just weighing up the possibilites, but the next crucial dates appear 14/15th November which are key fib dates and 20th November. Not sure yet if these will represent a low or a high, but cycles say a low.

Cheers


----------



## nomore4s (15 October 2007)

Have gone short today on JHX after getting stopped out of a long trade on Friday just above break even.

Position taken @ $7.26 just below Fridays low with a GSL at Fridays just above high of $7.54. Have only taken a 1/2 position atm with other 1/2 to be taken if sp breaks through support @ $7.00. Looking for around $6.45 if $7 is broken. Will have a very tight trailing stop until $7 is broken with conviction, due to support at $7 and current bullmarket.

Have taken the position due to JHX being unable to break through the downward trend channel and with Fridays price action on high volume showing some weakness, it also failed to rally past the 1/2 way point of the last reaction. A lot will depend on support at $7.00 though imo, as it looks to be quite strong.

At work so chart is a bit makeshift, sorry


----------



## chops_a_must (16 October 2007)

Decided to get in on the ticker "GOLD" earlier today, on the weekly r1.5, after a box play seems to have set up.

Looks to be going the right way at the moment. Stop set below the previous low  of 81.5, at 81.

Target is above $97.50, but will look to exit if/ when it is above $96. Am also wary of volume spikes on this one...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2007)

BentRod said:


> @snake... I'm also long TPI (from $10.46) after that first rise in volume.
> Not really happy with the trade so far as it's not getting on with it .... I'm @ breakeven.
> We have that gap @ $12.30, thats my first target, will we get there??




BR and Lachlan,
Lets give it some time to work. Nice to know others are in on it.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Have gone short today on JHX after getting stopped out of a long trade on Friday just above break even.
> 
> Position taken @ $7.26 just below Fridays low with a GSL at Fridays just above high of $7.54. Have only taken a 1/2 position atm with other 1/2 to be taken if sp breaks through support @ $7.00. Looking for around $6.45 if $7 is broken. Will have a very tight trailing stop until $7 is broken with conviction, due to support at $7 and current bullmarket.
> 
> ...




Nomore,

I am surprised a short is worth taking. I am still long - watched my profit evaporate but I am not mivng stops until wiggle room is comfortable. 

Good luck with it.  I may need the same


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2007)

CanOz said:


> Love those volume bubbles Snake...do you use Amibroker to find them?
> 
> Cheers,




Can,

 Here is another one that some are trading in this thread. Nice bubble.


----------



## nomore4s (16 October 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Nomore,
> 
> I am surprised a short is worth taking. I am still long - watched my profit evaporate but I am not mivng stops until wiggle room is comfortable.
> 
> Good luck with it.  I may need the same




Snake, you may be right. Just thought it was worth the risk of a 1/2 position now, alot of the closes on the last rally have been quite weak and it has yet to break the shorter term downtrend, it may also depend on some of the data out of the USA this week but knowing my luck your long is probably very looking good lol.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 October 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Snake, you may be right. Just thought it was worth the risk of a 1/2 position now, alot of the closes on the last rally have been quite weak and it has yet to break the shorter term downtrend, it may also depend on some of the data out of the USA this week but knowing my luck your long is probably very looking good lol.




Did you cash in your short this morning after the spike?


----------



## nomore4s (18 October 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Did you cash in your short this morning after the spike?




No, have been busy with work this morning and missed the spike but will reaccess the position at the close today. Stop has already been moved to B/E.


----------



## nomore4s (18 October 2007)

nomore4s said:


> No, have been busy with work this morning and missed the spike but will reaccess the position at the close today. Stop has already been moved to B/E.




Have covered my short just before close due to the strength shown this arvo. May even look to go long tomorrow now.


----------



## GreatPig (18 October 2007)

Here's another one I entered back at the end of September. Naturally bought at the high of the highest day at that time , but nearly back to even now. Hoping this will break out to the top side of the triangle, where the target could be $4.50 to $4.80.

Also interesting where the Fib levels lie. During the fall from the highs of April, there was some sideways consolidation right on the 50% level, and the current triangle is forming on the 61.8% level.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## >Apocalypto< (18 October 2007)

I have taken 2 mini shorts on the igxjo,

making this trade off the 4 hour chart,

main trend has finished, time has eaten up trend now moving in a sideways position.

the last thrust was a impulse made in a few bars the trust failed to reach old highs making the first lower high. Watching the support point could find resistance there.

many counter arguments to this trade, 1. its a bull market 2. this could be a normal reaction to the new sharp rise. plus others........

stop is @ 6786, see how it goes.


----------



## BentRod (18 October 2007)

> BR and Lachlan,
> Lets give it some time to work. Nice to know others are in on it




Gday SP.

I've moved my stop up($10.79) after todays price action as  I'm pretty much a short term trader.

It will have to prove itself from now.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 October 2007)

nomore4s said:


> Have covered my short just before close due to the strength shown this arvo. May even look to go long tomorrow now.




The pattern is quite strong now I believe, but strange things happen. I held that spike and waited it out but the speed of it was comforting. I broke my rules but I do that sometimes, must be the artist in me. Intuitive application.


----------



## BentRod (18 October 2007)

Regardless, it is good risk/reward Snake.

You know you are wrong(short term) on a breach of $6.78.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 October 2007)

BentRod said:


> Regardless, it is good risk/reward Snake.
> 
> You know you are wrong(short term) on a breach of $6.78.



Hi BentRod,
I would say further sub $7 and the trade is wrong. It needs to say up now.
Cheers...


----------



## chops_a_must (22 October 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Decided to get in on the ticker "GOLD" earlier today, on the weekly r1.5, after a box play seems to have set up.
> 
> Looks to be going the right way at the moment. Stop set below the previous low  of 81.5, at 81.
> 
> Target is above $97.50, but will look to exit if/ when it is above $96. Am also wary of volume spikes on this one...



Stop will most likely be moved to break even on the open for this one. We could see a gap up close to $87, and a large break of the box. It is an opportunity to scale in if I get stopped out on a few other trades today...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (22 October 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hi BentRod,
> I would say further sub $7 and the trade is wrong. It needs to say up now.
> Cheers...




Stopped out on the open.


----------



## BentRod (22 October 2007)

I'm out of TPI now too.

Good luck with it.


----------



## Lachlan6 (23 October 2007)

(CTX) looks like it is embarking on a five wave decline in the larger Wave (C) of this flat corrective pattern. I am looking for its next support down at $21.35 and from there a weakish rally may occur before a final fall, possibly down to around the August lows. At those levels it most likely will produce a level whereby a long will be very tempting indeed and any reversal signs will be therefore jumped on.


----------



## Lachlan6 (24 October 2007)

I have just shorted AMP at $10.40, as I believe from the chart there is downside potential. The move up from August to October cannot be considered impulsive in nature and hence must be corrective, and when placed in perspective with the decline from July to August, I have counted this as a larger A,B,C corrective pattern. I have sold into strength today (as I believe AMP is looking weak, probably only the overall market strength keeping it up today), and have placed my stop at above the 61.8% typical wave ii retracement level at $10.63. Looking for a wave iii to pan out soon. This is a medium term trade.


----------



## Lachlan6 (25 October 2007)

Just went long ANZ at $30.25. I like the set up here as it has retraced today on its profit release to an important zone of potential support. This level coincides with the typical wave (4) 38.2% retracement level coupled with the wave equality for the expected wave c. My stop is at $29.78, because if this level is breached (the exact level is $29.84), the impulsive movement up is negated.


----------



## Lachlan6 (25 October 2007)

Exited my trade in ANZ for a small loss and entered a new short medum term trade in LLC. I see further downside here as it seems to be in a zig zag corrective pattern. Notice the wave (A) had 5 waves down and the wave (B), a corrective 3 waves up. Now I am getting ready for the next 5 wave pattern down to conform with the Elliott rules in the wave (C). Arguably not a zig zag pattern as prices will not probably push below the August lows, however still a very good R/R trade with a stop at $20.16. 

With the market looking a little toppy I was on the hunt for potential short plays. I entered today at $19.66. Furthermore, notice how the highs of the last two days were spot on the 61.8% typical retracement level ($19.8) of the minor wave ii within the wave (C).


----------



## Nick Radge (29 October 2007)

PBL popped up in our reviews last month because of the Head & Shoulders bottom coupled with the stopping volume in mid-August. That initial target has been met, but the recent coiling portends a wave-4 triangle and therefore a probable trend continuation and an attempt to the all-time highs. 








_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Lachlan6 (30 October 2007)

Have purchased some AOE as a long trade at $2.64. Looking for the $3.20 target to be met which coincides with the pattern target (triangle) and the all time highs. I have counted this coiling in three waves only, as the impulsive wave 1 actually forms part of the triangle. My stop is at $2.36.


----------



## chops_a_must (30 October 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Have purchased some AOE as a long trade at $2.64. Looking for the $3.20 target to be met which coincides with the pattern target (triangle) and the all time highs. I have counted this coiling in three waves only, as the impulsive wave 1 actually forms part of the triangle. My stop is at $2.36.




Trade thief. :


----------



## Lachlan6 (31 October 2007)

Just went long IBA at $1.14. I like the set up here, as it looks like it is in the strongly cemented wave (3) position. The typical target from here would be $1.43, with a high probablity target from the triangle breakout at $1.32. The Risk Reward here is very good as my stop is placed at $1.06, just below the top of the wave (1). We know that the wave (4) cannot breach this level, so a good place to put a stop.


----------



## prawn_86 (31 October 2007)

Dont have a chart but i went long on SGB at open today with a CFD @ 33.40. 

It was close to support at $33 and released their report, which i thought the market would like.

Stop has now been moved well above b/e 

finally i get a trade right


----------



## tech/a (31 October 2007)

Prawn.
Can you tell me how you did that?
Seeing it opened at $35.30


----------



## Andy_aus (31 October 2007)

There was a moment of confusion there as I looked back and forth at the SGB stock chart before i read tech/a's post lol


----------



## rowes (1 November 2007)

Bought at .26

based my decision on seeing the buyers stepping in at the .25 support level a couple of days previous soaking up all the sellers, then the volume dropping of over the next couple of days which indicated to me the big selling had stopped, this with the stochastics in the oversold area then a positive day on the monday with the buyers taking control, thought it looked worth a go.


----------



## prawn_86 (1 November 2007)

tech/a said:


> Prawn.
> Can you tell me how you did that?
> Seeing it opened at $35.30




Sorry it should have read 35.40. Got a head cold messing with me at the moment


----------



## tech/a (1 November 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> Sorry it should have read 35.40. Got a head cold messing with me at the moment





Thank goodness.
I was actually hoping you had a way of doing that!!!


----------



## prawn_86 (1 November 2007)

If i could do that i wouldnt have so many losing trades lol.


----------

