# ASX 200 stocks to short



## blablabla (9 January 2008)

The "ASX200 stocks to short" thread is for identifying stocks that are about to fall or that are already in a downward spiral.

Posters, the rules are simple:-
1.  The stock must be in the ASX200. Got to be able to short it without first owning it.
2.  You must state a reason for your shorting opinion. e.g. T/A, F/A, economic news, unfavourable announcement.


To kick off, I nominate STW (StreetTracks ASX200 index tracking fund).
Reason: the market is experiencing a correction which in my opinion may have some way to run yet. STW reflects the whole ASX200 which makes it a good broad brush for sustained trends.


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## Timmy (9 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

3bla - dont forget you can short many more stocks outside of the ASX200 by using CFDs (DMA of course...)


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## kingie_d (9 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

blablabla, 
currently short in the following:
AIO - smooth downtrend
ALS - major breakdown since Nov
API - broke the rally in Nov and continued downtrend
ARQ - same as API
AWC - downtrending band since Oct
JST - Head & shoulders (?) pattern then rally met resistance at the neck line
OST - same as AWC

They are all in either a sustained downtrend or have turned since the Nov high and been going south since. Shorted each just after failed rallies and keeping fairly tight stops.


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## treefrog (9 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



blablabla said:


> The "ASX200 stocks to short" thread is for identifying stocks that are about to fall or that are already in a downward spiral.
> 
> Posters, the rules are simple:-
> 1.  The stock must be in the ASX200. Got to be able to short it without first owning it.
> ...




baba

er, what language (timeframe) are we speaking here - presume day charts rather than intraday so that we all get time to review the situation


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## treefrog (9 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

I know its not in the ASX200 (too big) but can I have NWS?...can I, can I, huh?

has been in a reliable downchannel since it broke the supporting UTL late april

I am MT short looking for 2yr support at 19.60

and also trade within the channels ST both long and short


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## Rainmaker2000 (9 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Is this like the opposite of a ramp?hehe....anything with Macquarie in it deserves a short


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## Buffettology (10 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



Rainmaker2000 said:


> Is this like the opposite of a ramp?hehe....anything with Macquarie in it deserves a short




ha ha, I concur!


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## blablabla (10 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Thanks Kingie for your interesting list.

Treefrog, yes the timeframe would be daily, not intraday.

Yes Rainmaker, this thread is downramper city.

To clarify which stocks can be included in this thread, they should be ones that most CFD providers allow their clients to short because CFDs are probably the easiest and cheapest ways to short sell. In general this means sticking to the ASX200 but there may be some exceptions. Some CFD providers do allow shorting on many stocks outside the ASX200 but most are likely to be in the ASX300.

By the way, a few days ago on another thread I recommended PEM as a good stock to short, and it certainly continued to be so for the next few days. Well, PEM seems to have finally hit bedrock and has risen significantly today. PEM may have gotten very oversold recently and its fundamental value may now cause it to rebound strongly. Could be a good time to close out any open PEM shorts.

Yes, you can use this thread to recommend when to close out shorts as well as when to open them!


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## prawn_86 (10 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Just remember to include a bit of analysis for each stock guys.

Downramping will be moderated in the same way as ramping 

enjoy

Prawn


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## treefrog (10 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



blablabla said:


> Thanks Kingie for your interesting list.
> 
> Treefrog, yes the timeframe would be daily, not intraday.
> 
> ...




yes PEM close to bottom of downtrend channel support and also bounced off 2.12 S/R line
of course the fundamentalists will tell us that a couple of insto's have stopped bailing out (temp at least) now they are no longer substantial holders (AMP and HER from memory) - they can sell without having to notify
PEM vol not high though today so maybe some sideways - anyway agree - u talked me into exiting the short for now


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## blablabla (14 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

DJI was down nearly 2% on Friday, despite promises of substantial rate reductions in the offing. Today the XJO opened very weak and early sellers pushed it below its 3-year support line, which should normally indicate that the current correction is now over. True to form, the XJO has rebounded and at the time of writing is actually above Friday's close.

This is a strong signal to close out most shorts in ASX200 stocks, even in weak stocks, at least until a clearer picture emerges from Wall St tonight.


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## wildmanchris (14 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

I notice AIO was mentioned in this thread.  A guy that works for me (dont ask me why he did this) bought $29,000 in AIO at $9.00, and on retracements put another $10,000 into it progressively.  It has made a bit of a rally friday and today.

Is it the start of a new wave, or a run before another chance to short?

Any thoughts?


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## kingie_d (15 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Wildmanchris,

Regarding AIO, after it closed way below the lower bolinger band on wed and thurs I tightened my stop loss to 1 x ATR and got stopped out yesterday (Mon) at $6.50 for a quick 4R profit. It looks like today it is forming a doji which might mean it is the end of its rally. If it starts going south again tommorrow I will probably jump back on the shortselling train.
I tightened stops on a few of those shares mentioned earlier and came out with small profits (eg. JST & AWC). OST popped up and stopped me out then went back down. It was forming an ascending triangle and I was intending to be on the right side of the breakout. Still unsure whether to try again.
From the looks of the XAO and XJO charts I might hold off entering shorts until after its rebound. I think I have turned into a bear...


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## blablabla (16 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

From a T/A perspective the bull market that has been in operation for years may now be officially over. The 3-year support line failed to prop up the XJO and todays market action shows that the 3-year support line is well and truly broken. T/A is now in line with F/A. It looks like a bear market. 

While it might appear that it is now open slather for shorting ASX200 stocks, great care is required with stock selection and with the timing of trades. For example, many stocks gapped very low today at the open but quickly began to rise as bargain hunters pounced.

There are wide-ranging predictions as to the where this market will bottom and how long the bear will last. Some are even saying that it's a long and deep correction, not really a bear. There is even a possibility of a quick rally if Bernanke makes a surprise large interest rate cut before the cut which most expect at the end of January. For ASX200 stocks, much will depend on the reporting period just commencing. 

What are the best stocks to short in this bear market? Resources? Retailers? Banks? Opinions are welcome.


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## tronic72 (16 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Currently, I'd short any stock that has three letters in it's code. Some examples would be AMP, BHP or RIO. 

For those that are more conservative and want to cover their bases. Any stocks that start is the letters A-Z would be a safe bet.

Does anyone know a good ship builder? I need to build an Ark ASAP as the blood in the streets in nearly over my roof.


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## numbercruncher (16 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Some might suggest the Housing crash is due to spread here, would make Banks tasty targets eh ?


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## chops_a_must (17 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



blablabla said:


> While it might appear that it is now open slather for shorting ASX200 stocks, great care is required with stock selection and with the timing of trades. For example, many stocks gapped very low today at the open but quickly began to rise as bargain hunters pounced.
> 
> There are wide-ranging predictions as to the where this market will bottom and how long the bear will last. Some are even saying that it's a long and deep correction, not really a bear. There is even a possibility of a quick rally if Bernanke makes a surprise large interest rate cut before the cut which most expect at the end of January. For ASX200 stocks, much will depend on the reporting period just commencing.
> 
> What are the best stocks to short in this bear market? Resources? Retailers? Banks? Opinions are welcome.



IMO just from looking at it, it's been nearly impossible trading a lot of stocks intraday, because of the gapping... effectively gambling in my eyes, if you aren't interested in gap trading.

Historically it is transports that do the worst in times like this. However, all but QAN seem to be trying to rally, and all but QAN no longer have price targets left IMO.

I reckon goldies and oilers are the way to go in the very short term, just because they are coming of a very high base. Longer term I am looking at AMP and some retailers...


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## ithatheekret (17 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

That's easy Chops , we'll grab a carton beer and some darts , darts for selection , beer for courage ............   

The S&P is under demolition below 1380 currently 1378 and change only one thing to do with all that red ............


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## kingie_d (21 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Here is another stock that I think is ideal for shorting. BLD has been in a steady downtrend for about half a year. There are plenty of buying opportunities when it rallies above the 10 MA and not too much panic selling (it doesn't dip below the ATR bands too often).


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## kingie_d (21 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

After getting stopped out at the end of the other week (most recent long candle) I jumped back into shorting AIO at a better price after the Doji. Still undecided as to whether I should hold good shorts to avoid transaction fees of getting out then back in or if it is better to lock in profits because the market could make a rebound sometime soon. I want to trade in the direction of the XAO but it looks really oversold (outside the ATR bands) and liable to make a rally sometime soon - even if it is only a small one. If there is a rally then it continues down it should provide lots more entry points into downtrending stocks.


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## kingie_d (24 January 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

If this rally flops tommorrow or next mon then there will be plenty of good shorting opportunities coming up. Heaps of downtrending stocks that have come up over their 10 day MAs. I will be looking for down turns to get more tickets on the Bear Train.
Even if the market starts going sideways then the definate downtrenders should continue south.


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## chops_a_must (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

Have gone short AMP this morning. Looking for a continued drive down. Still a long way from support >10%. And the entire financial sector still looks stuffed.

Looking OK so far.


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## Buffettology (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



chops_a_must said:


> Have gone short AMP this morning. Looking for a continued drive down. Still a long way from support >10%. And the entire financial sector still looks stuffed.
> 
> Looking OK so far.




ha ha, so simple, but so effective!  

Good call I reckon!


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## chops_a_must (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



Buffettology said:


> Good call I reckon!




Too early to tell. Could be a double bottom, or it could a H&S forming. Either way, in this environment for the financials, it's probably an opportunity to lever in.


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## juw177 (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

I have shorted ERA after a gap up yesterday on open and a gap down on today's open, which is a reversal signal.


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## Buffettology (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



chops_a_must said:


> Too early to tell. Could be a double bottom, or it could a H&S forming. Either way, in this environment for the financials, it's probably an opportunity to lever in.




Isnt the time between troughs usually at least 4 weeks?  Whereas this is only a 3 week timeframe, making the chances of a double bottom unlikely.....


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## chops_a_must (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



Buffettology said:


> Isnt the time between troughs usually at least 4 weeks?  Whereas this is only a 3 week timeframe, making the chances of a double bottom unlikely.....




I'm looking at the bottom from yesterday. Looks more and more like a H&S here though.

It will depend if the big players are prepared to go lo into the weekend or not, as to where this ends up, and a lot of other stocks today. Especially the financials...


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## Buffettology (15 February 2008)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*



chops_a_must said:


> I'm looking at the bottom from yesterday. Looks more and more like a H&S here though.
> 
> It will depend if the big players are prepared to go lo into the weekend or not, as to where this ends up, and a lot of other stocks today. Especially the financials...




Yeh, isnt that only 15 trading days from the bottom on 22/01?  

Definately looking more like a H&S if anything, just need the right shoulder to form.

Though, I dont think its likely considering the way the financial sector has acted lately!  Its definately taking the brunt of this action!


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## bajabus (25 January 2010)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

hey all, any new news on stocks to short.  Will hopefully have some news of my own soon.


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## craigj (30 January 2010)

*Re: ASX200 stocks to short*

in the short term the big miners as dividend season approaches money will start flowing into the higher yield stocks eg banks


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