# Market Commentators Bullish (time to wait and see?)



## prawn_86 (19 October 2012)

So far every market commentator i have seen in the last 3 days has been extremely bullish. Various comments include:

Entering new phase of bull market
Aus market will finally catch up to US gains
IR reductions will increase stocks
Value finally being recognised
Very attractive dividend yeilds
etc

Are we entering another run up? Or is everyone here still a little cautious? I know when i hear blanket commentary from various 'experts' i am always cautious about deploying further funds into the market...


----------



## IFocus (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



prawn_86 said:


> So far every market commentator i have seen in the last 3 days has been extremely bullish. Various comments include:
> 
> Entering new phase of bull market
> Aus market will finally catch up to US gains
> ...




If you are talking about investing the time was during the last run down late last year (or early 2009 a generational opportunity) but given your age (I think your under 30) parking 10% of your wealth into the market every year will see you having massive returns by the time you are 50.

Run ups always gets people excited but not necessarily the best time to buy.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



IFocus said:


> Run ups always gets people excited but not necessarily the best time to buy.




Exactly, and when there is blanket optimism across the board/mainstream media it always makes me cautious that something unexpected is coming...

Personally we are doing OK, currently have about 40% in equities, 5% precious metals and the balance in cash


----------



## howmanyru (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*

Stock markets are very bullish ATM, but why? Is the global economy surging? I don't think so. Unemployment is rising, real wages are decreasing, so business must be hurting. Don't forget It's only a few mining companies and banks that make up the bulk of the ASX, how are they performing? The US stock market is approaching it's all time pre GFC high, why? Is America facing a new phase of expansion? I don't think so. My money is staying out of this market until at least some measure of reality returns.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



prawn_86 said:


> So far every market commentator i have seen in the last 3 days has been extremely bullish. Various comments include:
> 
> Entering new phase of bull market
> Aus market will finally catch up to US gains
> ...




I've noticed commentators simply look at the chart and backwards rationalize.  Had the chart been dropping, then they would have found a new set of reasons to explain the price action.  

imo, price action simply 'happens'.  Millions of participants with millions of methods, and the net result is some sort of movement, and sometimes it can be reasonably predictable.  The reason it's predictable is because people themselves are predictable - they get cautious at certain times and greedy at other times.. and so on.  Right now the mood is cruisy.  That's what I'm feeling.  But I'm also on the lookout for some sort of top. I bet everyone else is too.


----------



## Julia (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



howmanyru said:


> Stock markets are very bullish ATM, but why? Is the global economy surging? I don't think so. Unemployment is rising, real wages are decreasing, so business must be hurting. Don't forget It's only a few mining companies and banks that make up the bulk of the ASX, how are they performing? The US stock market is approaching it's all time pre GFC high, why? Is America facing a new phase of expansion? I don't think so. My money is staying out of this market until at least some measure of reality returns.



+1.  There's no rational basis that I can see for the rise.  Hardly as though all the problems in Europe and the US have suddenly magically been resolved.


----------



## McLovin (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



howmanyru said:


> Stock markets are very bullish ATM, but why?




Everything last year was priced as though the four blokes on horses were soon to be with us. Things aren't great but they aren't as bad as most were thinking last year.


----------



## CanOz (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*

The Bull Market everyone hates....

Must still be a ton of money on the sidelines.

CanOz


----------



## Porper (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



CanOz said:


> The Bull Market everyone hates....
> 
> Must still be a ton of money on the sidelines.
> 
> CanOz




Unfortunately many are sitting on the sidelines focussing on the world economy slowing...U.S election, China etc. 

It's a "hated" Bull market because a lot have missed out...frozen with fear just watching the strength thinking it can't continue. maybe it won't but fighting the trend or ignoring it is never a good ploy.

It's quite interesting that the same old names on here crop up advocating armageddon...which they've been doing for years and will no doubt continue to do as the leading economies improve.


----------



## notting (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



CanOz said:


> The Bull Market everyone hates....
> Must still be a ton of money on the sidelines.




Must be a ton of legs left in the charge!

Though you'd think some consolidation has to occur soon.


----------



## CanOz (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



Porper said:


> Unfortunately many are sitting on the sidelines focussing on the world economy slowing...U.S election, China etc.
> 
> It's a "hated" Bull market because a lot have missed out...frozen with fear just watching the strength thinking it can't continue. maybe it won't but fighting the trend or ignoring it is never a good ploy.
> 
> It's quite interesting that the same old names on here crop up advocating Armageddon...which they've been doing for years and will no doubt continue to do as the leading economies improve.




Yup, agree. I'm on the sidelines too...and hating myself for it. I just wasn't prepared with the capital to deploy. Flipper is in profit on the ASX as well as the US...

Oh well...next time...

CanOz


----------



## Porper (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*



CanOz said:


> Yup, agree. I'm on the sidelines too...and hating myself for it. I just wasn't prepared with the capital to deploy. Flipper is in profit on the ASX as well as the US...
> 
> Oh well...next time...
> 
> CanOz




If we are only in the early stages of a more substantial trend then there will be plenty of opportunites to jump on. Just need the patterns to provide a low risk entry.


----------



## Out Too Soon (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*

Been pessimists for so long it's easy to miss all the Bullish signs



Noises from both China & the US economies have been more positive lately. The greek problem in the EU will go on festering for a long time yet but that's not the end of Europe or the EU- in total is an optimistic bullish outlook so strange?
(I have been accused of being an optimist)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2012)

*Re: Market Commentaors Bullish (time to wait and see?)*

Apart from the one miss-step in Sept, there's been 7 higher highs and 6 higher lows on our index since mid July.  Can't get more plain than that.  It's just been zig-zagging along merrily.  Plenty of movers in the spec end of town too - always a sign.


----------



## MrBurns (19 October 2012)

Money goes to basically 3 places , cash, property, shares.

Cash is out of fashion, low rates.

Property is on the wane, now more than it was earlier in the year and the trend looks to continue so that leaves shares and that may have something to do with the inflow of cash to the market at present.


----------



## howmanyru (20 October 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Money goes to basically 3 places , cash, property, shares.
> 
> Cash is out of fashion, low rates.
> 
> Property is on the wane, now more than it was earlier in the year and the trend looks to continue so that leaves shares and that may have something to do with the inflow of cash to the market at present.




True, there are few options for the unsophisticated investor like myself. Maybe people think they have heard all the bad news and figured the economy hasn't collapsed, so maybe a new bull run is on the way??? Still too risky for me though, I would rather sit this out and wait for a better entry point.


----------



## MrBurns (20 October 2012)

howmanyru said:


> True, there are few options for the unsophisticated investor like myself. Maybe people think they have heard all the bad news and figured the economy hasn't collapsed, so maybe a new bull run is on the way??? Still too risky for me though, I would rather sit this out and wait for a better entry point.




Just looks like gambling to me, if I was sure the market would be higher in 6 months I'd go for it but no one, no expert, absolutely no one......actually knows.


----------



## white_goodman (20 October 2012)

my thoughts are largely bullish, which is hard as Im super bearish on the system/central bank financial meddling (Fed and ECB mainly) itself..

If you look at what they are doing in unconventional monetary policy and a clear desire to inflate our way out of debt problems, I can only foresee asset prices going up(not so much housing here as the desire to pay down debt is too strong), its not palatable to see another crash. In our own market a lot of retail are on the sidelines(wary of another crash - good indicator that we arent too toppy), with cash rate on a clear downward trend people will have to search for yield/return. Hence why ive loaded up on TLS, seems like a no brainer. 

Spain has stopped its slide on being downgraded, Euro yields coming in thanks to ESM, operation twist till atleast 2014, 'better' macro-prudential regulation/supervision, confidence coming back in..

Big concerns are US fiscal cliff, Citi CEO just resigned(maby a sinking ship?!)


----------



## white_goodman (20 October 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Just looks like gambling to me, if I was sure the market would be higher in 6 months I'd go for it but no one, no expert, absolutely no one......actually knows.




you want to be buying when everyones already got positions on? If you were to buy when everyones 'sure' its going up ud be in the poor house


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 October 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> So far every market commentator i have seen in the last 3 days has been extremely bullish.




sokay.......fixed!

bulls 

bears :fu:

temporary flu


----------



## MrBurns (20 October 2012)

white_goodman said:


> you want to be buying when everyones already got positions on? If you were to buy when everyones 'sure' its going up ud be in the poor house




My cash rolls out of a TD at the end of the month.......I can sit on the fence till then.........


----------



## prawn_86 (22 October 2012)

2 down days in a row after every commentator was extremely bullish. Perfect short term sentiment indicator


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 October 2012)

prawn, in the manage attachments window, I've got about 4 pages of old charts and I don't know how to delete them.  Any ideas?  Thanks.


----------



## willstor (23 October 2012)

Hardly surprising to see a pullback. The main thing is the index has left the 4000 to 4300 range behind. For me retailers are looking good*value with*rate cuts christmas and half decent employment figures.


----------

