# What's the chance AAR is going to find its elephant zn deposit?



## ta2693 (31 October 2007)

Can anyone offer me a possibility from targeting one elephant deposit to finding a elephant deposit. 
given Age dating indicates the rocks of the Victoria-Birrindudu Basin are the same age as all the Proterozoic basins that host Australia’s largest base metal resources. 
given Highly anomalous levels of lead (up to3300ppm Pb) and zinc (up to 1100ppm Zn) were returned from rock chips of dolomitic
sediments. Anomalous levels (up to 500ppm) of lead were also returned from wide-spaced soil traverses. These values are encouraging, as the deposit models guiding the exploration suggest lead anomalism may be the surface expression of an alteration halo of a base metal mineralised system at depth.
given Thegeochemical database for the project area has been reviewed by consultant Geocraft Pty Ltd and specific areas of robust copper-lead-zinc anomalism have been identified.


what is possibility of success under this circumstance?


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## ta2693 (1 November 2007)

*Re: what the chance AAR going to find its elephant zn deposit?*

the first option is actully <0.5%
who can help me make a change?


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## doctorj (1 November 2007)

*Re: what the chance AAR going to find its elephant zn deposit?*



ta2693 said:


> the first option is actully <0.5%
> who can help me make a change?



Will the outcome of this poll change the actual result?  Or are you just hoping that we'll help you feel more comfortable with the excessive risk you've taken?


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## ta2693 (1 November 2007)

I hope to estimate the possibility of success.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 November 2007)

*Re: what the chance AAR going to find its elephant zn deposit?*



doctorj said:


> Will the outcome of this poll change the actual result?  Or are you just hoping that we'll help you feel more comfortable with the excessive risk you've taken?




I'm curious as to why you state "excessive risk" Doc, have you looked at AAR?

At current price levels AAR is valued on 100% of Mandilla gold production + exploration potential and maybe just maybe 25% of Koongies value, IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM does the current share price or market cap have any I repeat any blue sky priced in for the possibility of finding this "elephant deposit" 

So really its free at these levels, as it should be given how specualtive a target it is, 

If you disagree please do state why, but be sure to read my posts on AAR re Mandilla gold and Koongie VMS, they are the two projects which underwrite my bullishness on AAR, this Zinc thing is pie in the sky that adds a spec appeal


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 November 2007)

Also Ta, the mkt and forums will know squat re probability of finding the deposit, the only way your gonna get a true indication is with the rotary lie detector


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## doctorj (1 November 2007)

*Re: what the chance AAR going to find its elephant zn deposit?*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I'm curious as to why you state "excessive risk" Doc, have you looked at AAR?



YT, generally when people start threads like this, they're hoping people will make them feel better.  Perhaps they're position is underwater or they've bought way too much - which ever it's keeping them awake at night.

Either way, people can't predict the future, so the results are largely useless.  This can be evidenced by the distribution of answers to date - if people were well informed, able to make an accurate judgement and cared about sharing an accurate judgement, you'd expect the responses to approximate some kind of bell curve.

So YT, I wasn't referring to the company's prospects, just the OP's motivation for starting what is really an entirely useless thread!


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## ta2693 (1 November 2007)

*Re: what the chance AAR going to find its elephant zn deposit?*



doctorj said:


> YT, generally when people start threads like this, they're hoping people will make them feel better.  Perhaps they're position is underwater or they've bought way too much - which ever it's keeping them awake at night.
> 
> Either way, people can't predict the future, so the results are largely useless.  This can be evidenced by the distribution of answers to date - if people were well informed, able to make an accurate judgement and cared about sharing an accurate judgement, you'd expect the responses to approximate some kind of bell curve.
> 
> So YT, I wasn't referring to the company's prospects, just the OP's motivation for starting what is really an entirely useless thread!




I disagree with you. I think people can predict future.
I believe  <the wisdom of crowd>
I wish I bought too much. then I can make $$$$$$ today. But It is against my 10% risk control principle. I will not hold any single share  more 10% of my portfolio.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (1 November 2007)

*Re: what the chance AAR going to find its elephant zn deposit?*

Ahhh I see Doc, yep agree with what you said

Ta, disagree, if people could predict the future then nobody would make money investing as companies would always be correctly priced


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