# NAB - National Australia Bank



## JetDollars

All,

What's up with the NAB yesterday? After the CEO announement................

Where NAB go from here?

Your comments, please?


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*

Seems to be finding some support at $28.50 today.

I wonder how much lower it will go.


----------



## Baloo

*Re: NAB?*

They paid me a fully franked dividend that yielded 6% yesterday.

I'm not really concerned about the stocks price if they keep paying those sorts of dividends.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*

I suspect we're going to see NAB under $28 next week. The dive this week as been steep and on heavy volume so I can't see it bouncing back for a little while yet.

I think a lot of people are going to be looking for better returns elsewhere, although I think that NAB is good value at under $28. I think we're probably going to see NAB trade sideways for a while before it gets any real upward momentum.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

I just read the newspaper and there are several financial analysis believe that NAB will be heading south toward $26. But that's newspaper analysis view point.....Maybe a hold off from NAB for a while would be a good idea.

I sold NAB yesterday in my ASX Game....looking for opportunity else where.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*



> I just read the newspaper and there are several financial analysis believe that NAB will be heading south toward $26. But that's newspaper analysis view point.....Maybe a hold off from NAB for a while would be a good idea.
> 
> I sold NAB yesterday in my ASX Game....looking for opportunity else where.




NAB is continuing it's plunge this morning. It's 10 minutes after the open and NAB is off almost 1% at $28.08.

This one is definitely going much lower.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

In my view, NAB should go down a lot more from $28. Still holding it today, but I'm not very optimistic. Once this baby drops another $1, we may see some heavy buying activity. May be well worth a bit of a gamble but I thing it's just a bit too early at these levels. 

We shall see... Certainly a solid banking stock but it was a bit over priced and every bit of bad news will take it down further while it takes a lot of good news to move it back up into the very high 20s.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

yes I can see that NAB is heading down south again. If it close below $28.00 then my guess would be continue heading down south toward $27.00 or maybe lower.

It's quite interesting to watch this stock direction.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*



> yes I can see that NAB is heading down south again. If it close below $28.00 then my guess would be continue heading down south toward $27.00 or maybe lower.
> 
> It's quite interesting to watch this stock direction.




NAB is being pummelled again this morning. Down 1.5% to $27.58.

Where will it find support?

I'm predicting it will bounce back a bit before it hits $27, probably when instos with a long term view come in and snap up the stock.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

If the  market takes another dive tomorrow, NAB could finally drop to $27. I'd see it more in the 25-26 area before it finds a bottom, only based on the lack of good news and the fact that it was overpriced for a long time. Interesting to watch. It would appear that investors are scared that more bad news are burried under all this mess.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

NAB close at $27.48. Look like NAB keep going down until $27.00 and hopefully bounce back.


----------



## SuperTed

*Re: NAB?*

NAB has normally bounced off its yeild rate, with that support level around 28.50

The problem now is that yeild was suppossed to hold it up, because Stewart guarenteed the dividend.

The key to Stewart guarantee's is that he didnt stipulate it to carry passed the next dividend date (so the great yeild may not be there after Novembers payout).

I have based that NAB will fall around 15% based on Stewarts earnings comment (10-15% down). So around 26.50 should be bottom. 

The sale of Irish bank may cause a kick in share price (and NABS bottom line) but until the Aussie side is fixed then it has to stay down. Kinda similar to AMPs ecept NAB cant sell itself and move to Ireland  ;D ;D

At the end of the day its been a fundamental issue that has caused the fall so IMO using technical indicators is like most analysts guessing ;-)

Well that was a long one for my first post ;-)


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Well NAB has bounce back today, it's quite interesting to see where NAB will close today....keep watching.


----------



## GreatPig

*SMH News Article*

A relevant SMH article:

http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/21/1090089201421.html

"Investment houses shun bank stocks
July 21, 2004 - 1:39PM

Investment houses are putting the red pencil through banking stocks as the reverberations of last week's National Australia Bank profit downgrade continue to be felt."

GP


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Finally testing $27. That's going to be a very interesting day.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*



> Finally testing $27. That's going to be a very interesting day.




It really is flirting with that $27 level at the moment isn't it... will it finish above or below it I wonder?

I'm betting below.


----------



## profithunter

*Re: NAB?*

Me too

I'm hoping for a big friday arvo sell off.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*

In my view, if you can get NAB at $26.50 you are laughing if you have a long term outlook.

It hasn't been this price since October 2001 (fallout from Sept 11)... and before that October 2000.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Joe, I agree. It's coming to levels not seen for a long time and I'm sure we will see a big bounce soon enough. 26.5-26.7 is a bargain level at this stage and if I had the money to enter big time, I would do so. It could easily turn into a 3-4 dollar gain once we see it back on track.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

I agreed with you that NAB is a bargain, but the question is how low can NAB go before it bounce back.

I am planning the buy this stock, but since I am new to the game I am quite nervous because at this stage the stock does not provide any support line whatsoever.

I will sit tie and watch it where it will be heading next week.

The only support is at $23.87 (20/09/01), but I don't think NAB will go down that far.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Jet, 
Welcome to the game... ;-)
If only we all knew when a stock reaches its bottom. Now consider this:

- Do you plan to buy this stock for a quick profit or do you actually buy it because you belive that it is good value and will return to higher levels within the amount of time that you are planning to hold it?

If you are clear about what you want from a stock, then you don't have to know if it's going further down or up on Monday. You can make your decision based on your principles. 

EG: You are looking for a good investment to hold for a long term. Maybe you are looking for a stock to add to your permanent portfolio? In this case NAB is a buy. If it goes down another 50 cents on Monday is not really of your concern. You know that you bought it at a good price, below the market value. It will reward you with a nice gain. Not next week but on the long run. 

Looking for a quick money riser? NAB is not going to do it for you. It may bounce back next week,  maybe even $1 but that would hardly provide you with enough profit to make it worth while. 

Think about what you want from your investment before you try to buy something.

Not trying to teach you. Just thought I'd give you an idea.

Cheers

Stefan


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Replied in   blue


> rd=1;num=1089844635;start=15#23 date=07/23/04 at 20:06:05]Jet,
> Welcome to the game... ;-)
> Thank you for your welcome
> If only we all knew when a stock reaches its bottom.
> I agreed that no one will know when a stock reach it bottom and I am not trying to buy a stock at it bottom either.
> Now consider this:
> 
> - Do you plan to buy this stock for a quick profit or do you actually buy it because you belive that it is good value and will return to higher levels within the amount of time that you are planning to hold it?
> If I buy the stock then I will try to hold it for 2 to 3 months or maybe even shorter time frame depending how the stock react to the market. If the stock react badly in the market why would you want to hold it. If I buy the stock I will definately have my exit strategy in place.
> 
> If you are clear about what you want from a stock, then you don't have to know if it's going further down or up on Monday. You can make your decision based on your principles.
> At the moment the stock does not provide any indication whether it's going up or down, therefore I rather wait to see the indication from technical analysis point of view.
> 
> EG: You are looking for a good investment to hold for a long term. Maybe you are looking for a stock to add to your permanent portfolio? In this case NAB is a buy. If it goes down another 50 cents on Monday is not really of your concern.
> I believe it is my concern because if it does go down an other $0.50 which I am buying the stock $0.50 cheaper. isn't it what you want? to buy the stock cheaper.
> 
> You know that you bought it at a good price, below the market value. It will reward you with a nice gain. Not next week but on the long run.
> Yes you can say that I buy it at a good price, but if you buy it cheaper than you should you buy it at a much better price.
> 
> Looking for a quick money riser? NAB is not going to do it for you. It may bounce back next week,   maybe even $1 but that would hardly provide you with enough profit to make it worth while.
> If it bounce back $1 then it is a pure provide, eventhough it is not enough profit, but it's still a profit. The point is the entry signal is important to me, may be it's not important to you.
> 
> Think about what you want from your investment before you try to buy something.
> I know exactly what I want from my investment and that is to have a strategy in place in which to generate profit. Without provide there is no point of investing.
> 
> Not trying to teach you. Just thought I'd give you an idea.
> I thank you very much for your help and much appreciated. It's good to see other point of view. I don't know how much experience you got in share investing/trading, but your points has been taking into consideration.
> Cheers
> 
> Stefan


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

If I buy the stock then I will try to hold it for 2 to 3 months or maybe even shorter time frame depending how the stock react to the market. If the stock react badly in the market why would you want to hold it. If I buy the stock I will definately have my exit strategy in place. 

That's what I said. It depends on what your trading strategy is. If you plan to hold NAB for a year, there is no point in trying to gain another 50cents. The profit will be big enough in 12 months, regardless if you buy it at 26.80 or 26.30. 

At the moment the stock does not provide any indication whether it's going up or down, therefore I rather wait to see the indication from technical analysis point of view.  

If a stock is not following a normal trading pattern due to bad news, then there is no chart in the world that will tell you when it will go up or down. By the time your chart is telling you that it is going up, it has already done so and even a 10 year old can tell you then that it's now moving up. 

I believe it is my concern because if it does go down an other $0.50 which I am buying the stock $0.50 cheaper. isn't it what you want? to buy the stock cheaper.  

Not really. See my statement above. It all depends on what you want from your stock.

Yes you can say that I buy it at a good price, but if you buy it cheaper than you should you buy it at a much better price.  

No. Again, see my statement further up.

If it bounce back $1 then it is a pure provide, eventhough it is not enough profit, but it's still a profit. The point is the entry signal is important to me, may be it's not important to you. I know exactly what I want from my investment and that is to have a strategy in place in which to generate profit. Without provide there is no point of investing.  

I don't think you know what I'm talking about when I say trading strategy. It's not a strategy to generate a profit. That's actually more of a goal than a strategy. 

Lets look at what you just said. If it bounces back $1, then it is a profit. How can say that?

Assuming you buy 100 NAB at 26.30, right at its bottom, before it starts going up $1. This will set you back $2630 + $20 broker fee. (Maybe your fee is higher or slightly lower, but that's not going to change my point.)

Now you sell 100 NAB at 27.30. This will return you $2730 - $20 broker fee. Your initial profit BEFORE Tax is a staggering $60. Depending on your other income, your tax rate would most likely be at leat 30%. Your profit is now $42 after tax or 1.6% of your initial investment. 

If you spent more than 30 minutes on analysing and research for NAB, then your profit isn't worth it. 

There is a fine line between a real profit that will take you somewhere at the end of the year, or having done 100s of trades all returning small gains that finally don't add up.

Let's do one more thing:

I buy 100 NAB at 26:90. You wait because you think it goes down further. It just so happens that you're right. So you finally buy 100 NAB at 26.30. 

Now NAB starts going down further and because of your exit strategy, you sell at $26. You just made a loss:
you paid $2630, sold for 2600 plus fees = $70 loss.

I have done nothing with my shares because I believe it is undervalued and will be worth more in 12 months.

Now NAB starts going up again and you quickly enter it again to profit from its rise. So you buy 100 NAB at 26.05. After 3 months you decide to sell because you made a profit. You sell at 27.05, making $100 minus fees = $60. 

NAB goes down again and you decide to buy it once more. You buy 100 NAB at $26.50. It goes up and after 3 months you sell with another win of $1/share making $60 again. 

This time NAB is finally moving higher and you decide to buy it anyway, because it could go much higher now that bad news are long gone.

You buy 100 NAB at $28 and hold it until it reaches $30. You sell, happy to have made a nice profit.

Now lets look at the figures:

Over all you have made:
1 loss of $70
2 profits of $60
1 profit of $160
= profit of $210.

I have sold my 100 NAB at the same time as you for $30. 
My figures are a bit different:

1 profit of $320 - $40 fees = $280.

In other words, you have worked 4 times harder than me, watching the market, getting nervous every time NAB goes up or down while I have done nothing at all. I simply invested into a stock that I believed was undervalued and a good investment for the future.

You have invested in NAB for a quick profit which you managed to do 3 out of 4 times (pretty damn good) but nevertheless you still end up with less than what I have.

Would NAB have gone down the drain, then I would sit on a paper loss waiting for better times, but if I have done my homework, knowing the banking sector, checked the figures, evaluating if NAB is worth $30 or not, then my investment can't really go that wrong. Otherwise I would have made a terrible mistake somewhere down the line. 

I hope this gives you a bit of an idea. I'm off for the weekend and I promise I won't ever bother you again with a posting that big... 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

I think it's very easy to pick figures and scenarios that "prove" any point. I could just as easily show Jet making hundreds of dollars and you a loss.

In the end, no amount of research can ensure you "can't really go that wrong". Individual companies within a sector can perform badly, or even collapse, irrespective of the health of the sector as a whole and without warning. Companies will naturally hide as much bad news as they can for as long as they can. Once it is made public it's often too late.

So your research may lead you to believe that NAB is undervalued and a good investment, but that is not necessarily the case. For all anyone really knows, this could be the start of the end for NAB and their share price might never be the same again. NAB has been trending downwards for the last two years, and while this might be a somewhat bigger hiccup than usual, there's no saying a rally from it is going to reverse that trend.

And even if NAB prices do climb over the long term, unless the gain is better than say 5% pa compounded, you'd be better off just leaving your money in cash deposits. 

So I think there's no guarantees with anything, but personally I wouldn't be buying NAB shares for the long term any time soon unless it was obvious that a major trend reversal was underway.

GP


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,
Thank you for your details analysis...
I hope what we are discussing not lead into argument...

The problem with you scenario is that if NAB stay below $26.90 then you are holding your capital without any return from investment. Where as me I did make some profits and learn my lessons through trading....that's the different.

What happen when you buy NAB at $26.90 and it keep going down? and never recover? and for the next 2 to 3 years NAB trading between $20 and 26.90, what will you do, just holding to your NAB stock? Where as me I trade through those time and make profit, so what is the outcome?

Let continue with your example:
Recap:
You
Buy 100NAB at $26.90 = $2690

Me
Buy 100NAB at $26.30 = $2630, Sell $100NAB at $27.30 = $2730, Profit = $100
Buy 100NAB at $26.30 = $2630, Sell $100NAB at $26.00 = $2600, Loss = -$30
Buy 100NAB at $26.05 = $2605, Sell $100NAB at $27.05 = $2705, Profit = $100
Buy 100NAB at $26.50 = $2630, Sell $100NAB at $27.50 = $2750, Profit = $100
.
.
.
NOW NAB going down again.
Buy 100NAB at $26.00 = $2600, Sell $100NAB at $25.50 = $2550, Loss = -$50
Buy 100NAB at $25.00 = $2600, Sell $100NAB at $24.50 = $2450, Loss = -$50
Buy 100NAB at $24.00 = $2400, Sell $100NAB at $23.50 = $2350, Loss = -$50
Buy 100NAB at $22.00 = $2200, Sell $100NAB at $21.80 = $23500, Loss = -$20
.
.
.
NAB now trading at around $22.00 after 1 year.
After 1 year trading I make $100 - brokerage fees ($20x16=$320) = Loss -$220.

You bought the stock at $26.50 which meant you are lossing 100 x $4.50 = $450 + $20 = -$470 and if you sell then your total loss = -$490.

There are thousand of scenario out there and this is only two of them.....

Making money does not sound as easy as your analysis, if it is that easy then I will just get my 10 years old neighbour to buy the stock for me.

I am looking forward to your comments and new scenarios....

GreatPig,
Thank you for your input and support....

If you don't hear from me for the next two days then I must be at Steve McKnight Seminar at Melbourne....looking forward to it....take care.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Jet,
Don't worry. We're not having an argument.

You don't understand my point and neither does GreatPig. It's not about proving something. It's about showing some principles on how it all works. 

Of course I can come up with a scenario where NAB is a loss and I'll make no money at all. I mentioned that in my posting as well.

This is about knowing what you're buying. You obviously don't know anything about NAB other than it's share price and how it's been trading over the last few months. Fair enough. For your style of investment that may be all the information you need. 

My approach is different. If you understand the banking sector (I'm not saying that I do), then you have a background history of NAB that goes far deeper than just looking at charts. You will understand the true value of this company and you can come up with a decision as to wether you want to buy it at this level or not.

If you base your decision on a chart, then chances are that you are plain wrong. Charts do not take anything else into consideration than historic data. Times change and if NAB happens to be in trouble, then the price will continue to go down.

GreatPig is saying that this could be the start of the end of NAB. Yes it could. But if you've done your research then you know why the price is coming down and you know it's true value based on its financials. So his statement is just supporting my initial point. Do a proper research before you buy. If you don't feel comfortable, then by all means, don't buy. I'm not buying either. All I'm saying is invest more time in knowing your stock rather than looking at some charts.

Don't forget. This is not about buying or not buying NAB. It could as well be any other stock. 

My example was not to proof anything. It was only to show what can happen if you trade a lot of small gains.

Yes, if you don't get a decent return, then there is no point in buying. That's exactly what my example tried to show. 

What happen when you buy NAB at $26.90 and it keep going down? and never recover? and for the next 2 to 3 years NAB trading between $20 and 26.90, what will you do, just holding to your NAB stock? Where as me I trade through those time and make profit, so what is the outcome?

If I do what I'm trying to explain, then this won't happen. If NAB goes down over the long term, then my analysis based on solid financial figures, dividends and profit would have been wrong. Therefore my understanding of this company wasn't good enough. It can happen, but the risk is far smaller than when you base your decisions on charts. 

Anyway, for the sake of it let's assume it happens:
If NAB goes down, then your stop loss will kick in. You are then free to invest your money into another stock. I for my part would hold on to NAB and invest my other money into other shares just as you do. (Don't tell me you put 100% of your money into NAB... ) You still sold with a loss while I'm still holding a stock that according to my analysis has a long term value which is much higher than its current level. I might therefore even buy more.

See, you are having a different approach and that's fine. All I'm doing here is trying to show you another way. Nothing is gospel. After trading for 10 years, I've come to some conclusions. I've traded your way many years and I can't see anything wrong with that, other than that it will keep you very busy and nervous for many years to come. . The other way may not sound attractive to you but time is your friend when it comes to the stockmarket. 
And as you will find out, it is actually the only friend you will ever find. 

I wish you happy trading, lots of good gains, profits and a lot of experience. It's well worth it.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

I thank you for your help, especially with your experienced in the market. I look forward to hear from you again.

Thank you.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Jet,

Don't forget to invite me to your party when you make your first million! 

Now I better get going and start that BBQ. I'm feeling hungry. Have a nice weekend! May the new week bring us many good opportunities to trade!


----------



## profithunter

*Re: NAB?*

I am very surprised that nab has dropped this far.  I thought NAB was already trading at a discount compared to its peers due to its incompetent managment.  Now that it has a new CEO, revamped board and got rid of one of its chief currency traders who dosen't believe 'self' exists, I think nab has got to be a good buy.  But I have been wrong before, it could turn into another AMP.


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

Profithunter,



> it could turn into another AMP.



Or a Barings ;D

GP


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

A lot of millions flying through my way, now all I have to do is learn how to catch it and catch it fast.

Before you start the BBQ don't forget to buy the meats first.

My first million is edging closer everyday.


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

JetDollars,

Why are you posting at 3:45am ???

Haven't you heard of sleep? 

GP


----------



## profithunter

*Re: NAB?*



> JetDollars,
> 
> Why are you posting at 3:45am ???
> 
> GP




I find this disturbing too


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*



> JetDollars,
> 
> Why are you posting at 3:45am ???
> 
> Haven't you heard of sleep?
> 
> GP




I have to wake up at 3:30AM that morning to go to Steve McKnight property investing seminar at Melbourne.

While waiting for Still_In_School to pick me up I logon to check email and lead to forum....LOL.

ProfitHunter,
Why do you find it disturbing if you don't know the reason? 

Try to search for solution first because jump straight to conclusion...


----------



## profithunter

*Re: NAB?*



> ProfitHunter,
> Why do you find it disturbing if you don't know the reason?
> 
> Try to search for solution first because jump straight to conclusion...




Chill out Jet...I was joking, don't take things so seriously


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

ProfitHunter,

I finally got you back. I was just joking as well and I hope you feel that I was angry.....LOL

Got you!

Take care...mate


----------



## stockGURU

*Re: NAB?*

NAB dropping like a brick again this morning. Down to $26.60 at the moment and looking to go lower.

Looks to me like it might sink below $26.50 today.

Time will tell.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Look like NAB will be heading below $26.00 in the near future.

I am keeping a close watch on this share.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Will be interesting what happens on Monday after the damning report of their Irish business. Has the market already factored that into the current price?

http://theage.com.au/articles/2004/07/30/1091080444018.html

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## jkool

*Re: NAB?*

Just my 2cents worth to you prevous rather lengthy discussions here.

I would say that it comes down to what type of trader each of us here is. 

If somebody looks into fundamentals, knows the sector, company earnings etc. and sees in these something providing him/her with the right signal to buy/sell then he/she will probably do so regardless of the daily charting results. 
On the other hand a chartist will perhaps base his/her decision based on whatever the graph/price history is showing and goes from there. 

I personally would not buy NAB based on my charts (which I love) unless it shows me some strong reverse signal. I do see the big picture showing price being lowest since 2001 or so BUT I am not going to go against my own trading strategy. I just would not feel comfortable with my decision then. 

Just a thought.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

I would be very interested to see when any of the chart guys would consider NAB a buy. So please let me know. I'm very keen to see how NAB has to trade until a chart trader gets a buy signal. 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## jkool

*Re: NAB?*

Again I would say it depends on what you as a charter use to determine the signals.

I am trying to keep my decision process simple using linear regression line and MMA only. For me the NAB would become attractive when 
a) long MMA (21 wks) will run nicely in steady incline below the short MMA (13 wks) while short MMA had not  crossed it on downwards for substantial period of time (say 4-5 months) 
AND
b) price closes in buy/hold zone below linear regression line but above indicator created by linear regression line minus 5% 
AND
c) stock closed higher than last week
AND
d) volume increased
AND
e) quick readup on latest companys announcements and news not uncovering anything out of ordinary 

Then I will consider it a BUY for myself. 

Remark - as you can see my trading is based on a long term system where I only consider weekly price movements. May not be everybodys cup of tea

I hope its understandable - no rocket science but easier to see on chart than describe in writting.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

jkool,

much appreciated! I'm not going to judge your system. As you said, everybody has his own ideas. It's very interesting to read about them and I'm sure others are interested to hear about different ideas and strategies.

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

NAB trading strongly today, as is most of the banking sector.
Up over 1% since I bought on Thursday.

I thought the stock was very cheap at $26.50 (bound for a rally as is most of the banking sector, strong supports at that price level), but you guys don't seem to be too optimistic.

I'm only a newbie (been following the market for a long time, but this is my first trade), should I take the profit and run or hold? 
(At the moment my instinct is hold, but after some remarks by ppl Im not so sure)

HELP ???


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: NAB?*



> NAB trading strongly today, as is most of the banking sector.
> Up over 1% since I bought on Thursday.
> 
> I thought the stock was very cheap at $26.50 (bound for a rally as is most of the banking sector, strong supports at that price level), but you guys don't seem to be too optimistic.
> 
> I'm only a newbie (been following the market for a long time, but this is my first trade), should I take the profit and run or hold?
> (At the moment my instinct is hold, but after some remarks by ppl Im not so sure)
> 
> HELP ???




It's a tough call Neo... are you in NAB short term or for the long haul?

If you are in for the long haul then I think you got in at a good price. If you are a short term trader then take profits whenever you think. As long as you are in front you are okay! 

My personal view is that NAB has a little further south to go yet before it bottoms. But hey, I could be wrong!

Good luck!


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Joe,

I agreed with you that NAB may still heading south for a short period of time before bounce back.


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

Thanks Guys,

Appreciate your input...

I am in it for the short term at the moment, my strategy only involves support and resistance lines, been doing OK with paper trading tests of it.

Seemed like good value at the time, currently looking for a possible break above the 10 day moving average, should be able to tell if it was a good call or not by the end of the week.


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

By looking at my chart for NAB tonight, I would suggest NAB is a very close watch for a buy now (for a relatively short term buy at least).

The RSI is pulling up across the 30 line and crossing the 14 day MA as well. The 7 day price MA is turning up, and the last 3 days' lows have all been higher than the previous day's.

I think if I was really considering buying this stock I might be aggressive and buy now, or perhaps be a bit safer and wait and see for another day or so to see if it continues heading up.

However, this is just my inexpert observation - certainly not a recommendation or advice!

Cheers,
GP


----------



## profithunter

*Re: NAB?*

I was thinking about writing some $26.50 Nab puts...I would be happy to buy at that price, if I got exercised then I would get a nice discount.


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

Tanks for your Great insights GreatPig! (pun not intentional  ;D)

I think that is one of my problems so far.
I am still learning how to use the charting techniques and don't put enough emphasis on them.

Might have to hit the books again, and put some of the principles in practice. Which indicators do you, the more seasoned traders find most useful?


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

GreatPig,

If you see a "very short term buy" then what would you consider a target for NAB in the short term? You would have to make a $2 for a decent return, but I'm not too sure that you can get that on the "very short term". 

Sure, you can always get NAB for a 50 cent run but is it worthwhile?

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*



> Sure, you can always get NAB for a 50 cent run but is it worthwhile?



That depends on the time frame it takes to get it.

Let's look at some figures:

Current price according to Yahoo = $26.94
Price after $0.50 gain = $27.44

Say you purchased 1000 shares with 0.3% commission (as per the ASX game rules, although in reality you could get more like 0.1%):

Shares bought = $26,940
Buy commission = $80.82

Shares sold = $27,440
Sale commission = $82.32

Profit = $336.86 (before tax)

or 1.25% return on investment.

Converting that to annual returns based on some times to achieve that 50c gain gives:

1 day = 456.4% pa
1 week = 65.02% pa
1 month = 15% pa

So I think if a 50 cent gain could be achieved in less than a month, the ROI would be reasonable. Any less time would obviously be even better. More so again if margin lending were applied.

Now, I don't have the figure for this morning's opening price, but yesterday's close was $26.80 so it's risen by 14 cents today (in fact 15 cents now that I refresh the quote). I can see it possibly achieving a 50 cent gain in a week if this rise continues, even more so in a month.

Of course this could just be a small rally before the price starts falling again, but that is always a risk with any trade. I think the chances on this one are reasonable though.

So let's say there's a buy of 1000 shares at $26.94 and see how long it takes to reach $27.44, if it manages to at all. Of course I would then only sell at that point if the rise looked like conking out.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

GreatPig,

I must agreed with you because that's what I was thinking to do.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Well, if we assume that one can buy 1000 shares then yes. I was of course looking at a more reasonable amount of money to spend. I somehow don't think that most members here have $30K to spend.

While the % may be the same, the commission would eat away most of your gains.

Not to mention interest on any margin lending you might need to pay for 1000 NAB shares. As you mentioned correctly. 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

Point taken stefan,

I only ended up buying 280 shares for about at $26.50 per share. Today was 25c up to $27.05, 
so $154 profit - $40 for brokerage (buy and sell)
$114 net profit in 3 days, a 1.54% net profit in 3 days of trading, or 184% per annum if I keep going this way.

I'm quite satisfied so far as it is my very first trade, now I have to decide when to take profit.

If it drops bellow $27 I will sell (like a stop-loss).

Does anyone have a more concrete goal for the stock?

Also many of you say that there are better opportunities in the market, would you be able to suggest any, Im still learning so any help would be great.

Thanks for all your feedback everyone!


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

Neo,



> Does anyone have a more concrete goal for the stock?



Please be aware that no one here can offer you financial advice. All comments are just that - general comments.

Since you've actually bought this stock and are looking for ideas on when to sell, I think most people will be wary of offering anything too specific so that it can't be construed as being financial advice. You have to make your own decisions based on your own research and study.

In my example I am just talking hypothetically. I don't own the stock and don't plan to buy it at this point in time. I could very well be totally wrong and the price could take a dive again at any moment.

You've done well so far, so just keep a close eye on the price and sell when you think is best.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

Sorry GP,

Didn't mean to be taken like I was asking for financial advice (new to the forum not sure of what is appropriate).

Sorry everyone!


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Neo,

Generally you will (or should) find it difficult to get specific information regarding the movement of a stock or recommendations to buy/sell. This is a forum where we can talk, speculate and dream about shares and possible profits. 

Of course one can always ask for the opinion of others but you shouldn't expect to see something like: Buy NAB at 26.85 with a short term target of 27.90. Stop loss 26.70. Hold longer term for a target of 30+. 

You will find these kind of things in stock trading rooms where people try to profit from each other by recommending stocks they just bought. 

However, I can't see a problem discussing different views of a stock. So if ask me about NAB, I can give you my opinion. If however you ask for a better stock than NAB to buy, then I can't help you. If I knew it, then I'd be living a different life...   ;D

Well done with NAB! Congratulations on a $100+ profit. 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

NAB has been heading north for the last 2 days...I think it going up for a short period of time before trace back to $26.48 (new support line).


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Well, the market has just turned sour today. Everything going backwards. (Almost everything...)

This will be real test for NAB to find its bottom here.

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

Wow, did that fly down....

What goes up, must come down.


Down as low as 26.58,
Luckyly common sense prevailed and I sold out (26.88), still retaining a nice profit.

No more NAB for me...


----------



## jkool

*Re: NAB?*

Oh my God..time to panic....I think I will need to realize a loss here. My NAB shares were obtained for something around $29.1...........all 4 of them ;D 

I held about 140 NAB shares about two months during the dividends time and chose to take the DRP. In the meantime I got out of all my NAB holdings (only just broke even on them to be honest) and then I received my great dividends: 4 shares.  So now I am stuck with 4 NAB for average price around $29. Anybody with a business mind here?

I mean can I even sell only 4 shares?


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*



> I mean can I even sell only 4 shares?




Why not putting them aside for retirement?  

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*



> Why not putting them aside for retirement?
> 
> Happy trading
> 
> Stefan




That's what I was thinking Stefan...LOL


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

NAB on free fall over the last few minutes. No holding back on the seller side and close to no support on the buyer side... Interesting times indeed.


----------



## pxk

*Re: NAB?*

New to forum, been reading comments on NAB.

Month ago bought long on RIO &amp; BHP which have been making record profits and they're going side ways at the moment. 

NAB has been making losses all over the world. eg NIB (National Irish bank) reported a loss over $100m. Why would you go long. The $24 support is a long drop to take that chance. 

NAB went side ways for six days, to shake out the buyers or sellers (sellers won). It's not all gloom and doom with the NAB. Sell short or buy into a company that knows how to profit. Come on $24


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

So what you're saying is it might be a while before it gets to $27.44? ;D

GP


----------



## pxk

*Re: NAB?*

As I was writing the last tag the Nab fell near 20 cents. I think buyers are romancing with the NAB, because its been a top stock for so long, and buyers think the stock has bottomed out and buy, which they proberly
thought the same thing when the NAB bottomed at $29. 

Who knows when NAB will bottom but $24 looks good!


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*



> NAB has been making losses all over the world. eg NIB (National Irish bank) reported a loss over $100m. Why would you go long. The $24 support is a long drop to take that chance.  Sell short or buy into a company that knows how to profit. Come on $24




pxk,
I can't see your argument. You are talking like NAB would make a loss. Yes, they have made losses in some parts of their business but they are still a billion dollar profit company. And where do you take that $24 support from?

I'm not holding NAB but it's been an interesting stock to watch and discuss. 

Quote from traing update released 14/7:







> Cash earnings before significant items for the six months to September 30 are expected to be 10 to 15 per cent lower than the March 2004 half year result of $1.85 billion.




A drop of 15% is more than reflected in the current price level. I'm no friend of NAB but I'm keen to find value for money. Reading my other postings re NAB you'll find that I'm looking for a long term hold. Certainly it gets more and more interesting with each day. But $24? I'm keen to hear your reasons...

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*



> So what you're saying is it might be a while before it gets to $27.44?




GreatPig,
 ;D I'd say so... Anyway, I find NAB a very nice example to talk about strategies and analysis. Well worth a closer look. I'm still keen to get it for the long term and to read what other members have to say. If it wasn't for NAB, this board would be dead 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## pxk

*Re: NAB?*

We haven't had a large down turn in the economy for about 14 years, which history shows happens every 7-14 years. (proberly fifteen years this time round)

Pending rises in interest rates. 

Also there's pressure on banks to drop their fees and charges, which will reduce profits. 

NAB profits down comared to last year.

The Stock Market has got the jitters, even companies with record profits are slightly falling or going side ways

If you look at where NAB is on the chart (I would insert an image if I could get the bloody insert image tab to work) NABs been on a downward slide for the last 2 years. Next support level is at around $24 which NAB is almost there. Support and resistance levels are a very big part in trading (only if I could that &amp;^$@*^! insert image to work).

NABs saving grace will be if they sack 1000 workers
or so or start selling some overseas concerns. Results of improvement wont come out until November. I think that hitting $24 wont be that hard.

If you listen to brockers they will say buy buy buy! What else are the going say, they have to make a living.


----------



## Guest

*Re: NAB?*

I aggree with you Stefan, a long term outlook.
My question is, When will the dividend downgrade anouncment come, What will that do to the price and will that be the last of the bad news before a recovery?


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*



> NABs been on a downward slide for the last 2 years.



This what you want?

GP


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*



> If you listen to brockers they will say buy buy buy! What else are the going say, they have to make a living.



Never listen to brokers.

I agreed with Stefan that NAB is a long term buy, but when to buy, time will tell.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

NAB is currently trading at levels not seen for 3 years. Looks like it has found some support here. I still don't think it will go to $24 without more bad news. Now there's always a risk that more bad stuff is in the pipeline, but for now I'm comfortable that this is a good entry point for a long term hold. Now all I need is some 100K to buy enough shares to secure my retirement. 

 ;D

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## pxk

*Re: NAB?*

Attachment, thanks Great Pig

Stephan
If you look at that NAB chart over the last couple of years, It more likely to hit $24, bounce around at that level for couple of months go up to the $30 mark then down and a high probability would suggest that the NAB would fall below $24.

By the time the NAB recovers, the district health nurse will be slipping you pension cheques under you bedroom door.

So are you better off putting your money in property, thats out performed the market over the last 10 years.

Putting money on a company thats just past its all time price high (stalling for the last couple of days due too high oil prices) and suposably announcing record profits on 18 Aug.

Prepare and sell short the market when it drops due to economic down turn, because we have to have recession we had too have!(an old paul keating line)


----------



## pxk

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan sorry about the name misspelling thing!


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

pxk,

I fully agree with you regarding a possible market downturn. And I'm actually speculating to be well prepared for it. 

We will always have differences as far as NAB is concerned. You're looking at it from a different angle than I do. I do agree that NAB has been on a downward trend over the last 2 years. But it's a big bank nevertheless. It may currently suffer from bad news and losses in some of it's business but you have to look at the whole picture rather than a few dark spots. For me, NAB is becoming attractive to hold. Even if it tends to go down further. It was heavily overpriced in the 30s and so is the CBA. (Which I predict will be the next big slump in banking). We just had bad news for Westpac in NZ and I have no doub that this will hit the whole sector next week. 

From a chart point of view, I can see the $24 target, but keep in mind that NAB has come a long way since it traded at these levels. Check the profit figures and the overall fundamentals for NAB. 



> By the time the NAB recovers, the district health nurse will be slipping you pension cheques under you bedroom door.



That's exactly what I'm after.



> So are you better off putting your money in property, thats out performed the market over the last 10 years.




Which is exactly why I would never put my money in property right now.



> Putting money on a company thats just past its all time price high (stalling for the last couple of days due too high oil prices) and suposably announcing record profits on 18 Aug.




Putting money into BHP, a stock that's trading at new hights in a over heated market doesn't sound like a good idea to me. If they announce a new record profit, then the stock may move a bit higher. Expectations are high and so the price has moved up already. I'm not after these kind of stocks. And if you predict a downturn and another one of those recession we have to have, then I certainly won't invest in stocks that are trading at new heights if they depend on a strong economy. China alone won't keep BHP going. And if you think that high oil prices are a momentary thing then I don't agree. Keep in mind that this may well be enough to seriously hit BHP or RIO or all the other big players who depend so much on an economy that we are most likely going to miss for a long time.



> Prepare and sell short the market when it drops due to economic down turn, because we have to have recession we had too have!(an old paul keating line)



And why would I go out and buy a stock at record levels then? Some parts of your posting are clearly in conflict with other parts. 

I'm looking forward to your reply. Always great to discuss these things. 

Have a nice weekend

Stefan


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

I know NAB is a big bank, but there be another AMP?

I am pretty sure it's not, but by waiting for uptrend opportunity in the near future would be a good idea.

I know from fundamental analysis point of view NAB is a good buy at the moment. But if it does trending down further then it will be a better buy.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*



> I know from fundamental analysis point of view NAB is a good buy at the moment. But if it does trending down further then it will be a better buy.



Jet,
If you are a fundamental trader looking for an investment then you don't care much if there are a few more % to gain by waiting a little bit longer. As soon as the figures add up, you buy and hold. You buy because you come to the conclusion that a stock is trading below its value. There is no need to find a bottom before you enter. 

If NAB turns out to be another AMP then that's bad luck. You can't predict these things. Based on the figures and announcements we had on NAB, I consider it a buy for long term. You wouldn't buy because you're not after the same type of investment. You buy and sell for a quick profit and you base your decisions on charts and trends. Perfectly fine. I agree that right now, there is no clear indication where the price will go next with NAB. So you can't buy it. 

I can, because I don't care where the price goes within the next few days. I care where it will be in a year and beyond. And because I think that NAB will continue to make billion dollar profits and pay a nice dividend for the years to come, I have no problem with buying. 

Now to make it clear: I don't hold any NAB. I just use it as a good example to discuss different strategies. Wheter a stock is buy or not depends on your investment goals. 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

I agreed with you, NAB is a good buy for long term investment, but just because you are a long term investors does not mean you should buy stock at anytime as long as your fundamental analysis is correct.

Fundamental analysis is to look for stock that are undervalue, then you also timing your entry position to take full benefits.

As I mention somewhere in this topic above, waiting for opportunity before you entry your position.

I am picking on you here, but I would like to take the below situation as an example, if I could:
Early on you mention NAB was a good buy at $26.90 for long term, I agreed with you but not at this price and back then I was in believe that NAB does not provide any support line, therefore it might go down further and as you can see NAB went down as low as $26.33 (close on thursday. Which meant a gap of $0.57 that is quite an amount because as a long term investor then you would enter your position quite a large amount.

If you enter your position say at $70k then the different is $1500 which is quite a lot of money.

Take care and thank you for your analysis.


----------



## pxk

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan
History shows that properties in some city fringe areas in our major capital cities never go down they always move up in price, it might be low % but they still go up.



> And why would I go out and buy a stock at record levels then? Some parts of your posting are clearly in conflict with other parts.



When the Aussie market takes a dive(not over heated yet) you'll get companies like BHP fall due to panic, but then BHP would recover because of over 80% of their interests are overseas. 

Alot of NAB's overseas interests have made huge losses. eg  Homeside wholesale lending in the US, stuffed up in Britton, lost in Singapore. Telstra always make a huge profit but their shares go nowhere, "no overseas interests".

(Thursdays quote)


> NABs saving grace will be if they sack 1000 workers or so or start selling some overseas concerns.



On Friday the NAB make a short lived effort too boost their share price with an anouncement that they're going to get rid of their IT section, and the price rises 14 cents. (no social consience)
They still have to pay out their staff with a couple of years of wages, Employ contractors to run their IT departments. Whoever wins the IT contract will have them by the short and curlies. Each time they go out to tender(which they''ll have to do every 2-3 years) are they going to replace the contractors with another contracting company who don't know their systems, I dout it. Myer's CEO (ex banking guy) got rid of their Human Resource departments back in 85 or 86 which lifted their share value, got his bonus and then buggered off. Their training went out of the window, down the track sales dropped. 2 years ago they went back to a structure with a HR level to train and motivate the staff.

If we had Banking CEO's running the country we be all on the dole or we would be trying to get refugee statas in countries like the phillipines or even worse "New Zealand" just to get work.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Pxk,



> History shows that properties in some city fringe areas in our major capital cities never go down they always move up in price, it might be low % but they still go up.




That couldn't be further from the truth. It's just been a while since the last big pullback in the early 90s. Mind you that the Australian phenomenon of rising property prices has cast a spell on most Investors. They think property never loses in value. We shall see...



> When the Aussie market takes a dive(not over heated yet) you'll get companies like BHP fall due to panic, but then BHP would recover because of over 80% of their interests are overseas.




I don't agree. You see, the market will not only dive in Australia. It's pretty sad already all over the world and economies in all major corners of the planet aren't recovering at the speed most people would like. If Australia crashes, then having an overseas interest will not help if these economies are down as well. And that's exactly the way it currently is. 

Hey! I do agree with you regarding the IT outsourcing stuff you said.  Just the usual action. Send some people home, that will increase the companies share price. Doesn't pay off for long as you said yourself.



> ... we would be trying to get refugee statas in countries like the phillipines or even worse "New Zealand" just to get work.




I'm not going to comment on these remarks.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Come on guys,

What happened to the good old NAB thread?
No more postings? Have you all lost interest?

Let me try to kick start it again...

I consider NAB a buy for longer term, but I now also consider it a buy for short term. It has somehow found some support around these levels and I would expect a quick spike up to the $27+ range this week.

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

I'm wondering if it's about to bottom out into a head and shoulders formation.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Which means it would be trading along without any clear indication up or down?

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*

Stefan,

Which means if it forms a mirror image of the circled bit there then pushes up above about $27 or so, it could recover further.

GP


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

GP,

Thanks for the clarifiation! So your chart would support my idea then?  

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

I guess NAB found support around the $26 mark. Which mean it is a buy opportunity here. Stop Loss should be set just below $26 say $25.94.

The reason I set stop loss at $25.94 because people liket to trade at the exact number like $26.00, $25.95, $25.90 and so for.


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

After the CBA hammer today, I'd be careful before I'd buy any banking shares. Let's just see what happens next. I withdraw my short term buy for NAB (for a day or 2 anyway) but stick to the long term one. 

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## stefan

*threadRe: NAB?*

As mentioned in the CBA thread, they have gone ex dividend today so that explains the pullback. I therefore re initiate my short term buy for NAB.

Sorry for the confusion. Just goes to show what happens if you don't follow a stock...

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: NAB?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> I'm wondering if it's about to bottom out into a head and shoulders formation



And this is what it looks like now.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: NAB?*

Yer, its finally broken the resistance. I've got NAB stocks myself. I just bought into it a two weeks ago. What do you guys think?? Is this just a false alarm?? Or is NAB about to pull something off??


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

the whole market is picking up at the moment so NAB will do well in the near future


----------



## still_in_school

*Re: NAB?*

Hi Guys,

technically IMHO, i think NAB still has some fundamental issues, and over the last couple days it been trading around the $27.00 mark, the main problem i see is, that the stock seems to have risen in value, relatively to the low volume of trades, currently at the moment just purchased some NAB8o Oct $27.50 Puts at .735, option price jumped to .79cents back now trading around .75, but mainly on the T/A im seeing that the RSI is too high and that the stock price should come down in the next few days...

lets see what happens tonight in the US with analyst reportings, could be an interesting monday morning, depending on tonights reportings.

Cheers,
sis


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Does anybody know what happened to NAB today? Why is it down 1.2%?
I didn't follow it for a while.

Happy trading

Stefan


----------



## Bingo

*Re: NAB?*

Generally the banks turned down when Japan opened lower. CBA as well. There was a further downgrade of NAB yesterday.

Bibgo


----------



## stefan

*Re: NAB?*

Thanks Bingo! Much appreciated.


----------



## mime

*NAB*

Anyone know why it is not moving much. The other banks(cba) are volitile right now while nab is sitting pretty still.


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*



			
				Bingo said:
			
		

> Generally the banks turned down when Japan opened lower. CBA as well. There was a further downgrade of NAB yesterday.
> 
> Bibgo





Just wanna have a bit of fun because I just notice that you spell you name wrong.....LOL...LOL...LOL


----------



## JetDollars

*Re: NAB?*

NAB go ex-dividend today.

Will NAB drop in price as much as the dividend amount? if yes, why? if not, why not?

Your comment/s please!


----------



## DTM

Just interested whether anyone else thinks NAB is ready to go up.  I think its ready to go up and have bought in the money March call options and was wondering whether any one else may think the same or whether others may think it a bad call.  

I'm playing this one close to the line and may seem risky but I think that it will go up in the next two days.

 :goodnight


----------



## SuperTed

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Not me. 

NAB is a donkey only being held up by its dividend. Of late it has been dragged along by the sector as a whole.


----------



## SuperTed

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Not me. 

NAB is a donkey only being held up by its dividend. Of late it has been dragged along by the sector as a whole. 

But will the sector hold or has an April rate rise been factored in as well?


----------



## clowboy

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

I aggree with both of you.....

NAB is cheap if it has started it's turnaround, and that is a big if.

Long term NAB will recover and it is cheap now (IMHO) however if any more bad news where to come out of NAB then the market would overreact and the SP would fall.

That would be a good entry.

Bad news is the likes of a cut to dividend etc.


Just My opinion


----------



## markrmau

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Lenders in the housing market are starting to do (desperate?) things like offer petrol discounts with housing loans. Perhaps a bank with good exposure to the buisiness loans segment would be best (don't know what nab's exposure is).


----------



## ob1kenobi

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

The National Australia Bank (NAB) which has been going sideways of late, made a break for the $34 mark toward the end of last week. Could it be that the worst is now behind them? The chart is below but it appears to be on the verge of breaking out and moving up. Time will tell for the NAB. May be worth watching.


----------



## ob1kenobi

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

According to the NAB web site, last week they released an Australian Region Market Update, which is an outline of their Business Plan / Strategy from now through till 2008. They see 2006 - 2008 as being their growth times. It's a lengthy document (108 pages) and repetitive but interesting. The report is available as a PDF file at: http://www.nabgroup.com/vgnmedia/downld/Australian_Market_Update_sept_2005.pdf

For the record, I do not currently hold shares in NAB but have had them on my watchlist for awhile.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

If NAB is priced with the other 3 pillars it is $35.60 so its trading at a discount.


----------



## Julia

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> If NAB is priced with the other 3 pillars it is $35.60 so its trading at a discount.




There are six analyst recommendations I've seen in the last month which rate NAB as a Hold at best.  Good returns are not expected for some time to come.
All the analysts above suggested ANZ and St. George as being their preferred banking stocks.

I wouldn't touch it until it starts to demonstrate more recovery than it has done so far.  There are better buys out there.


Julia


----------



## doctorj

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Check out the report about ARB in issue 72 of the Australasian Investment Review for a great example of how good brokers are at predicting the past and ignoring the future.

T/A aside, NAB represents a great recovery story and I believe there are opportunties for investors with an appropriate timeframe.

Disclosure: I hold.


----------



## ob1kenobi

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Check out the report about ARB in issue 72 of the Australasian Investment Review for a great example of how good brokers are at predicting the past and ignoring the future.
> 
> T/A aside, NAB represents a great recovery story and I believe there are opportunties for investors with an appropriate timeframe.
> 
> Disclosure: I hold.




Doc, I agree with your last statement: "T/A aside, NAB represents a great recovery story and I believe there are opportunties for investors with an appropriate timeframe." It's getting the timeframe that is important. For those that intend to hold for a 12-24 month time frame, it may have potential. Personally I'm still on the sidelines.


----------



## doctorj

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Just thought I'd post this chart.  ANZ's profit figure in conjunction with recent market strength seems to be supporting this leg.

I hold.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Anyone been looking, holding, selling, buying NAB warrants? would like to hear nore.


----------



## Yippyio

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Anyone been looking, holding, selling, buying NAB warrants? would like to hear nore.




Getting hammered at the moment. Is this a buying op or has it got more to go ??? (the million dollar question I guess) please refer to crystal ball.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Anyone been looking, holding, selling, buying NAB warrants? would like to hear nore.




   May not get there but I am waiting down at the $32.00ish level...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> Getting hammered at the moment. Is this a buying op or has it got more to go ??? (the million dollar question I guess) please refer to crystal ball.




It depends on your investment time frame, at the moment the share price is below its fundamental price and if it is valued on its last posted net profit without the inclusion of one off asset sales and expenses and compared to the other banks it should be easilybetween $37 and $39 a share.


----------



## happytrader

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Nab does this every report time that I've looked at for years. If it did'nt I'd be shocked. It also gives pretty good call entry signs afterwards without having to guess as well. Just wait I reckon. Save yourself afew bucks.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## brisvegas

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

couple broker downgrades coming through for NAB 


SYDNEY (AFX) - Goldman Sachs JBWere said it has downgraded its long-term 
recommendation on National Australia Bank Ltd to "hold" from "buy" saying that valuations 
on Australia's largest bank are "stretched". 
    The downgrade follows NAB on Wednesday reporting a 4.4 pct fall in September year 
cash net profit to 3.31 bln aud and indicating costs had exceeded expectations as the 
bank seeks to rebuild its businesses following a damaging foreign exchange trading 
scandal in 2004. 
    NAB is approving loans at a faster rate than its rivals to increase market share.
    Goldman Sachs said given NAB's decision to trade nearer term cost leverage for longer 
term revenue growth, the company's returns profile has been pushed further out than it 
originally anticipated. 
    The firm said Goldman Sachs said it had previously viewed that share price upside 
existed through upside earnings surprise from restructuring benefits and capital 
reinvestment. 
    But this is no longer the case as NAB has indicated it will reinvest many of the 
nearer term cost benefits from restructuring back into its core franchise to improve the 
future growth prospects. 
    Goldman Sachs said this strategy will ultimately place NAB in a stronger position for 
sustainable longer term growth but it does have the effect of lowering near term earnings 
which makes near term valuations challenging. 
    Given that NAB is trading on a price to forecast fiscal 2006 earnings multiple of 
14.4 times, representing an 8.0 pct premium to its peers and has limited prospects for 
near term earning upside, Goldman Sachs said it struggles to justify buying the stock at 
current levels.


----------



## brisvegas

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

31.80 - 32.00 is probable first supp level . personally wouldnt get involved in NAB myself currently

........... pete


----------



## brisvegas

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

SYDNEY, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Citigroup Investment Research has 

downgraded its rating on National Australia Bank Ltd. <NAB.AX> to 

"sell" from "hold" and said the stock appeared overpriced and 

restructuring benefits would be slower than anticipated. 

    "While NAB's rate of revenue growth impressed, expense growth 

also looks likely to exceed our initial estimates," Citigroup 

analysts Craig Williams and Neil Murchie said in a report. 

    Citigroup, which kept a 12-month share price target of A$31, 

added: "Extracting costs will be more difficult and take time." 

    Shares in Australia's biggest bank, which is cutting jobs as 

part of a restructuring plan, were down 2.4 percent at A$32.38 by 

10:52 a.m. (2352 GMT) in a broader market 0.16 percent weaker. 

    Goldman Sachs JBWere also downgraded its long-term rating on 

NAB to "hold" from "buy" and cut its earnings forecasts, while 

Credit Suisse First Boston favours other banks. 

    "NAB have chosen to trade nearer term cost leverage for 

longer term revenue growth," Goldman Sachs analyst James Freeman 

said in a report. "While this decision may benefit the longer 

term trajectory, this has resulted in our returns profile being 

pushed out, thus leaving medium term valuations challenging." 

    NAB posted on Wednesday a better-than-expected 2.6 percent 

rise in second-half cash earnings per share, which is earnings 

before goodwill amortisation and one-off items, but said 

moderating economies would pose challenges to business growth. 

    "Overall, the result confirmed to us our theme of NAB being a 

fully priced restructuring story, with NAB's restructuring on 

track -- rather than ahead -- to deliver the turnaround story as 

expected, rather than something better," Credit Suisse First 

Boston analysts Nick Selvaratnam and James Ellis said. 

    CSFB said there were better risk/reward trade-offs in St 

George Bank Ltd. <SGB.AX>, Westpac Banking Corp. <WBC.AX> and 

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. <ANZ.AX>. 

    "The key risk to our NAB investment view is the possibility 

of a divestment of the UK franchises at any time," Selvaratnam 

and Ellis said. They retained a "neutral" rating on NAB. 

     Goldman Sachs lowered its 2006, 2007 and 2008 diluted cash 

earnings per share forecasts by 3.4 percent, 4.1 percent and 2.2 

percent, respectively. 

    UBS raised its 12-month share price target on NAB to A$31.80 

from A$30.84 and trimmed its 2006 forecast by 0.5 percent, saying 

the biggest caveat on the bank was its "stretched valuation." 

    "Turnaround appears to be underway, albeit slowly," UBS 

analysts Jeff Emmanuel, Jonathan Mott and Ross Curran said in a 

report. "Numerous pressure points are holding forecasts down." 

 ($1=A$1.35)


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

These type of analyst reports have came out a couple of times this year but none of them can get it right exactly even though they try. None of these analysts can be exact as they are only making assumptions on some of the information that they have before them. The low earnings growth of between 3 and 4 % between 2006 and 2008 has to be rembered that the analysts are discounting the growth to NPV net present value and the share price as well so they have compounded the inflation and deducted to reduce the increases; this they will not mention as the average person wont be able to work that out and they cannot be exactly accused of under rating the growth or share price. As for the share price they have also dicounted its value as well in other words if the share price in one year from now is going to be $36 they will say $32 as the value is discounted.

Something for us to think about when these analysts speak.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> 31.80 - 32.00 is probable first supp level . personally wouldnt get involved in NAB myself currently
> 
> ........... pete




Thats a really big gap appearing on the graph  today and with a stock like NAB it wont be long before it is filled. Sellers must have forgot to get their dividend, so the selling pressure should'nt last to long. ????


----------



## Yippyio

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

NAB is now on it's way back up after a low of 32.04. 

This would have made a very nice day trade for someone, today. Not me though I bought at 32.47 and sold at 32.28. :swear:


----------



## mit

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Well the corporates are getting back from their lunch and 31.40 is holding.

MIT


----------



## Kauri

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> NAB is now on it's way back up after a low of 32.04.
> 
> This would have made a very nice day trade for someone, today. Not me though I bought at 32.47 and sold at 32.28. :swear:




   And I am still sitting down there at $32.00... waiting..  :hammer:   :swear:


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> And I am still sitting down there at $32.00... waiting..  :hammer:   :swear:




Did you buy call warrants or the actual stock??


----------



## Kauri

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Did you buy call warrants or the actual stock??




  I was looking for DMA cfd's, and am still looking  (didn't quite reach me at my price of $32.00)  :swear:


----------



## brisvegas

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I was looking for DMA cfd's, and am still looking  (didn't quite reach me at my price of $32.00)  :swear:





you will get another chance . 32.00 is probably tad too low to get a fill being psychological level . 32.10 would have got you a fill . plenty of people will have same idea as you no doubt . have to be ahead of the crowd  , if it trades at 32.00 the worry will be if it runs the stops that no doubt would be right under that level fwiw



............. pete


----------



## Kauri

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				brisvegas said:
			
		

> you will get another chance . 32.00 is probably tad too low to get a fill being psychological level . 32.10 would have got you a fill . plenty of people will have same idea as you no doubt . have to be ahead of the crowd , if it trades at 32.00 the worry will be if it runs the stops that no doubt would be right under that level fwiw
> ............. pete




   I agree about the psychological barrier at 32.00. In hindsight I might have had my support/res. line a tad too low at 31.90. What I had planned was if she came down to that line and bounced I would get on at 32.00 and try to take as much out of the days bounce as possible. In the current market I have found a few where they fall rapidly to a major supp/res level that coincides with a good trendline and bounce quite strongly. I think I have missed this one..


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I agree about the psychological barrier at 32.00. In hindsight I might have had my support/res. line a tad too low at 31.90. What I had planned was if she came down to that line and bounced I would get on at 32.00 and try to take as much out of the days bounce as possible. In the current market I have found a few where they fall rapidly to a major supp/res level that coincides with a good trendline and bounce quite strongly. I think I have missed this one..




Hi Kauri

I bought call warrants the other day when i posted to you NABwmc NABWMA but now i reckon next week you will get your chance to get back in again at maybe $32 but i have gone short today on the Put warrants and plan to sit there and wait.

THis aint advice its my opinion.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hi Kauri
> 
> I bought call warrants the other day when i posted to you NABwmc NABWMA but now i reckon next week you will get your chance to get back in again at maybe $32 but i have gone short today on the Put warrants and plan to sit there and wait.
> 
> THis aint advice its my opinion.




   If she respects the T/A I'd say that you have called it right....again  :iagree:


----------



## doctorj

*Re: NAB - Ready to go up?*

Have been following NAB very closely for the last couple of months after it broke out of its trend.  Sitting in a tight range between the .5 and .618 fib retracement of the fall.  Volume has fallen away and each day's trading range has been much narrower than average.  Several bars can be seen with long tails showing strong rejection of lower prices, but does today's bar with a close near the bottom suggest sellers are starting to win the arm wrestle and a move back below the recent support is imminent? 

I guess we'll see in the coming days - anyone else following?


----------



## sam76

Wow it's been well over a year since anyone has spoken about NAB as a share!

Anyone know why it's going gangbusters today??


----------



## Gurgler

sam76 said:


> Anyone know why it's going gangbusters *today*??




It's not just today - check out the past two weeks!

I've been thinking the same. Doctor J, as the last one to post before today, do you follow this stock? Can you offer any perspective?

(holding, happily)


----------



## barnz2k

wow didnt notice. It was recovering kinda slowish from the slump and then since start of april shooting vertical haha. cool 
no big anouncements listed.


----------



## Gurgler

Is this recent drop related to the US sub-prime problem in some way? Todays SP is its lowest since early Dec 06. For one of the four pillars, this is some sick puppy! 

FN Arena reports that there is speculation about that policy:

*ABN Amro tips 2008 as the year that Australia’s official four pillars policy for the banking sector might come to an end. For what it’s worth: ANZ and National are seen as the most complimentary, but Westpac is believed to be interested in a tie-in with one of the other three as well.*
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current FNArena ranking, Buy/Hold/Sell ratios and average target price (between second brackets suggested share price upside):
#1 Westpac 6/4/0 ($28.58) (+7.97%)
#2 ANZ 4/6/0 ($31.76) (+8.95%)
#3 CommBank 4/4/2 ($55.88) (-1.10%)

*#4 National 4/5/1($42.83) (+7.07%)*
#5 St George 0/9/1 ($35.76) (+0.09%)

Source: The Banking Sector Wrap - Week To Wednesday July 25
FN Arena News - July 26 2007 
By Greg Peel and Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

*Any views/insights (positive or negative) on the future of this stock??*


----------



## Ken

If we take everything account.  

For the NAB to bum in the ass.... we would ask ourselves this question

Are house prices rising? 
Is the economy growing?
Are there jobs to find easily?


This is very simplistic but if you can answer yes to all questions, then the banks should do okay in the economic climate!

Corrections are corrections...


----------



## Ken

Chart wise signs were there to go short on the NAB when it broke under $39.00

The chart looks ugly. Very similar to PGL in its drop...

But you know if you're buying NAB at current prices, long term buying is good value.

Suck it in. If you want a big piece of the NAB you will get your opportunity over the next month... 

Buy along the time line, average your price out and you should do okay..


----------



## Sean K

NAB starting to look more interesting, but maybe it's just following the XAO...or is that the other way around.......

Maybe it's another sign of XAO as a potential breakout...

Jumping that 200d ma will be encouraging...


----------



## Ken

Why are all the banks pretty much unchanged but nab is down the most?

NAB - performs worst out of big 4 again.

Why?


----------



## greenfs

Ken said:


> Why are all the banks pretty much unchanged but nab is down the most?
> 
> NAB - performs worst out of big 4 again.
> 
> Why?




Whilst I do hold ANZ & WBC (as one must as part of a balanced portfoilio) it is my view that this sector is to say the least very mature. When you have got CBA indicating that they must rely on its Business Banking sector to compensate for the lack of future gains in the personal/housing sector it indicates to me a pretty much guaranteed lack of momentum in the share price going forward. 

Given CBA's share of total middle market business clients has (from memory) halved over the past 10-12 years, my view is that its share price must have at least peaked and may even start to drift southwards over coming months/years as it becomes difficult to sustain the current dividend stream. 

NAB's immediate share price performance may be due to it contemplating the acquisition of a non-performing UK financial institution as regularly reported in the press over the past week.

I know others may have alternative views and look forward to reading & digesting same with due respect.


----------



## happytrader

I bought into this one this arvo only because I thought it was cheap enough to hold into the next quarter. Chart wise there is more often than not an overlap in pricebars from one quarter to the next. 

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## Ken

I think there are some stocks you just dont sell, especially at the age of 22.

I am scared to think of what NAB shares are going to be worth in 30 or 40 years.

They might rip us off with charges and fees, so might as well be part of it.


----------



## 2020hindsight

just for the record 
here's NAB for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages 
Also NAB vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either 
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)


----------



## gazelle

Still have to do a bit more work to gauge possible price points , but looking for NAB to either low into the 18th January or setup a cntr trend reversal on this date . The 2002 correction ran out 1094 pts and thus far the current pullback has ran out 873 so I am just using that figure as a reference guide . current mkt position is trading below the 45 deg line which is normal within an accelerated downtrend but I think the timing componet might set something up with short and intermediate cycles moving into proportional alignment . it could very well turn out to be nothing but the traps are set and I will try and read the mkt as it moves into this date . 

Regards Gazelle


----------



## gazelle

Scenario 1 : might have a better possibility of playing out as indicated by outside reversal . still looking at the possibility of a low into the 18th but with the accelerated nature of trend pitch could well overun time . see what unfolds  picking bottoms in a high momentum mkt is a high risk low probability strategy ( AKA McLarenn )  it might be prudent to wait for a few higher lows to confirm a strengthening mkt structure . 

Regards Gazelle


----------



## Miner

gazelle said:


> Scenario 1 : might have a better possibility of playing out as indicated by outside reversal . still looking at the possibility of a low into the 18th but with the accelerated nature of trend pitch could well overun time . see what unfolds  picking bottoms in a high momentum mkt is a high risk low probability strategy ( AKA McLarenn )  it might be prudent to wait for a few higher lows to confirm a strengthening mkt structure .
> 
> Regards Gazelle




Today's special note from Huntleys NAB, WBC and ANZ are given as a buy.
Recently one of the directors has bought more than a million dollar worth shares from market.


----------



## gazelle

Nice low into  3453 . Scenario No 1 played out as expected . should at least stabilise around these lvs . 

CBA : Significant timing date 25th January . same method of approach .


----------



## AnDy62

Bizarre performance today, managed to fall from early highs to 30.34, then rally back to the 32s, but still down. Anyone know why, CBA etc were all fine and no announcements that I could see


----------



## treefrog

into solid downleg following classic DT formation - looking for next substantial support at $31o


(what?? too short?? - its as long as it needs to be and no more or less) - ignore this drivel


----------



## nikkothescorpio

AnDy62 said:


> Bizarre performance today, managed to fall from early highs to 30.34, then rally back to the 32s, but still down. Anyone know why, CBA etc were all fine and no announcements that I could see




Read my mind - I've no idea why it dropped to that level and then just as fast went back - someone hit the wrong keys on a sell?????

Anyone with any ideas?


----------



## Bill M

Another director John Thorn bought 1,000 shares yesterday. Whilst it's not a lot money wise it was none the less his own money and the shares were bought at market price. The other director bought $2.2 million worth, not a bad sign of confidence.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret

Bill M said:


> Another director John Thorn bought 1,000 shares yesterday. Whilst it's not a lot money wise it was none the less his own money and the shares were bought at market price. The other director bought $2.2 million worth, not a bad sign of confidence.




I just wonder if the directors sold out today,seems this share is reeling .
Sadly I picked a few ,before it nosedived to $28.59.....trust me to walk away from the screen to make a cuppa of tea ,and not clear my order!


----------



## treefrog

interesting level for NAB

the weekly shows it at its 4 year low with momentum still screaming south but a closer look for the last week's candle shows a Long-Legged Doji;

"Long-Legged Doji:  This candlestick has long upper and lower shadows with the Doji in the middle of the day's trading range, clearly reflecting the indecision of traders."

wouldn't argue with that - here's the chart - oh, and a zoom in on the Doji


----------



## AnDy62

NAB has held up very nicely today, bucking the trend for the other big banks. Happy to ride it out with a share like NAB, and accumulate those nice dividends, held this for around 3 years and still am up 21% even with this recent turmoil. Show me my investment in 10 years, that's what I think with NAB It's learnt from a few hard knocks and I think will improve as a company in the coming years


----------



## MRC & Co

Wrong thread


----------



## dhukka

AnDy62 said:


> NAB has held up very nicely today, bucking the trend for the other big banks. Happy to ride it out with a share like NAB, and accumulate those nice dividends, held this for around 3 years and still am up 21% even with this recent turmoil. Show me my investment in 10 years, that's what I think with NAB It's learnt from a few hard knocks and I think will improve as a company in the coming years




Sounds like someone is fishing for reassurance. Self reassurance (or delusion) is popular in times like these. NAB will be a good company in the coming years because they've learned from a few hard knocks, not exactly a sound basis for an investment decision. Good luck with that.


----------



## AnDy62

Thanks mate, my portfolio is still nicely up, must be due to all my self-delusions helping me  It's easy to criticize people, but a bit harder to do better yourself as you have probably found out the hard way...


----------



## AnDy62

Btw big shot, my argument re NAB and learning from mistakes was not founded by delusion but through many sources I've read- see 'Top 100 Stocks for 2008'- they talk about how NAB now focuses on sustainable, organic growth and has cut their cost profile - lessons learnt from past mistakes, particularly the UK. If you don't believe me do a little research on it. It is hardly a pathetic delusion but a well agreed upon fact, same story with how AMP is run. So, sorry to prove your little psychological quip incorrect buddy


----------



## dhukka

AnDy62 said:


> Btw big shot, my argument re NAB and learning from mistakes was not founded by delusion but through many sources I've read- see 'Top 100 Stocks for 2008'- they talk about how NAB now focuses on sustainable, organic growth and has cut their cost profile - lessons learnt from past mistakes, particularly the UK. If you don't believe me do a little research on it. It is hardly a pathetic delusion but a well agreed upon fact, same story with how AMP is run. So, sorry to prove your little psychological quip incorrect buddy




Now I know you're delusional if you think reading Top Stocks constitutes research. Wasn't NAB in Top Stocks 2007 edition? How did that pan out?


----------



## AnDy62

Did you see the phrase 'many sources'? I don't consider Top Stocks good research - I was just pointing out my original post about the hard knocks wasn't my own self-delusion. Anyway, kick the boot in again... I don't really care.


----------



## adamim1

NAB worth investing in after their big crash? It seems like they have plateaued, and maybe on the rise?


----------



## McNovice

what's our verdict on these guys? The telegraph business insider yesterday said sell. I still think they are at a good price today


----------



## AnDy62

^ I wouldn't pay too much attention to that, I've seen many other sources saying the opposite - it's subjective. Personally, I feel that there can't be too much more down side from here especially with that dividend. Also, NAB has the most exposure to agribusiness of the banks in Australia and might be well positioned in that regard. DYOR. 

Disclaimer- I don't hold NAB but will look to jump back on some time.


----------



## Grinder

*NAB*

Noticed there is no postings on this forum on NAB, so I will start one. After todays results and the price climb there seems to be quite alot of interest. I have been quite bearsih on the big banks shorting them of late, but am starting to think it's NAB could push up through $33. What do others think?


----------



## Grinder

aahh.. there it is. Don't quite know what happened, but there is a thread after all. Must be Fri arvo, nevermind.


----------



## oldblue

*Re: NAB*



Grinder said:


> Noticed there is no postings on this forum on NAB, so I will start one. After todays results and the price climb there seems to be quite alot of interest. I have been quite bearsih on the big banks shorting them of late, but am starting to think it's NAB could push up through $33. What do others think?




Hi Grinder
Do you have some T/A reasoning to support that or is $33 just a gut feel following a better than expected result?
I hold NBA but must confess I have no idea how the SP will go. I reckon the banks will be hostage to bigger, world-wide-type influences for a while yet and I can't guess how those will play out.


----------



## robots

hello,

great result for NAB, for many who follow the man, in this case Michael Chaney it is good news

thankyou

robots


----------



## dhukka

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> great result for NAB, for many who follow the man, in this case Michael Chaney it is good news
> 
> thankyou
> 
> robots




A great result? I'd call 8.7% increase in eps in the current environment reasonable but hardly great. Compared to 2H07 profit and eps were both down. Provisions for bad debts are up susbstantially and volumes are slowing. A tough environment for the banks going forward.


----------



## oldblue

I'd call it a solid result in a very tough environment.

Just not too confident of prospects going forward and after all, that's what the market is interested in.


----------



## Grinder

*Re: NAB*



oldblue said:


> Hi Grinder
> Do you have some T/A reasoning to support that or is $33 just a gut feel following a better than expected result?
> I hold NBA but must confess I have no idea how the SP will go. I reckon the banks will be hostage to bigger, world-wide-type influences for a while yet and I can't guess how those will play out.



 Nope, no T/A on the SP to suggest otherwise, just thinking aloud after yesterdays close and was interested to hear from someone else. Don't hold NAB but will be watching closely.


----------



## mapna

I guess this is just a day-to-day momemtum, the global financial crisis is still very bad, AIG just posted a big loss in the US, European financial markets are also effected heavily by this crisis.

_"AIG Tumbles 

AIG lost $3.87, or 8.8 percent, to $40.28, contributing the most to the declines in the S&P 500 and Dow. The world's largest insurer reported a first-quarter net loss of $7.81 billion, compared with earnings of $4.13 billion a year earlier. AIG wrote down contracts it had sold to protect investors by $9.11 billion in the quarter to comply with rules that require the company to estimate their present market value. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings cut the company's credit grades after the announcement. _"

based on the comments from number of analysts, they reckon financial crisis is still far from over yet. There are still more coming out after the bad results from AIG


IMO - DYOR


----------



## karundus

I am holding NAB i bought in at $32 ... 

What do you think the share price will get up to in the long term?


----------



## hoppielimp

It appears that between the Banks most of the Banks feel the write downs are almost complete for them.

They have said though that because of how the insurance companies categorise their sub-prime exposure as investments, that their reporting of these issue will start to surface this year...hence the bad news in theory, will come pretty much from insurance companies...not the retail/investment banks.


----------



## questionall_42

hoppielimp said:


> It appears that between the Banks most of the Banks feel the write downs are almost complete for them.
> 
> They have said though that because of how the insurance companies categorise their sub-prime exposure as investments, that their reporting of these issue will start to surface this year...hence the bad news in theory, will come pretty much from insurance companies...not the retail/investment banks.




Hoppielimp - can you elaborate on that. I would have thought that accounting standards were consistent between banks and insurance cos, so that there would not be in any discrepancy in how they report their losses or write-downs.

It is also arguable that the banks have completed all their write-downs; in theory, as the economy slows, more write-downs would surface.  Take Commander Communications (CDR) as an example, or even the ABSs or CNPs or AHGs - big losses waiting to be booked.


----------



## gazelle

On the weekly chart NAB has ran out 180  & 360 deg  into the 16th May which could indicate a change of trend is due . The initial drive into Nov high was approx 875pts in 90 days with price action exhausting into the top . The current rally has ran approx 875pts in 63 days so price has  balanced in a shorter period of time  indicating a strong  trend . NAB has a historical tendency to change trend on seasonal dates so I have looked at price in relation to the geometrical angles and points of resistance for additional confirmation . The uptrend is still in place with the largest pullback in the current drive being 453pts in approx 15 days or a little over two weeks . we can use this as a directional gauge  to reduce our current position in the anticipation of a pullback in either time or price back to the target level . 3530 level comes out on 1/2 & 1/4 retracement points so any further weakness below this point will indicate change of trend . Price is trading above the 45 deg angle from 4470 so if time turns trend it might only be for 1 - 2 weeks at most .  10th Oct is another significant date to watch .


----------



## Frank D

NAB goes ex-div last day of this month, so there is an expectation that price is going to gap down....


----------



## gazelle

Time has turned trend and  price is trading below 3530 mid point level and below the 63 3/4 deg angle from 4484 top ( 1x 2 ) which further indicates short term resistance . Downside target is around 3029 which will balance the previous counter in price . Previous counter ran down 15 days in time which will set the ( possibility )  of a an equal move down in time and price to 3029 towards the end of the month . There are other timing dates coming in so I will look at these in further detail but balancing counters asgainst each other can provide us with a directional gauge to expect trend to turn but the primary componet is time .


----------



## jwjw2121

Seems a bit of a drought on NAB related posts here... very cheap at the moment although I read an article with reference to David Hunts predictions (he correctly predicted that the market would downturn after october last year) - he reckons that the market will bottom out in mid-Oct/early Nov after the US hits its predicted bottom in early/mid Oct. so the question is to hold or sell and buy back at a lower price? Extremely cheap today at under $20 given that most analysts value it at $33-35.


----------



## YELNATS

jwjw2121 said:


> Seems a bit of a drought on NAB related posts here... very cheap at the moment although I read an article with reference to David Hunts predictions (he correctly predicted that the market would downturn after october last year) - he reckons that the market will bottom out in mid-Oct/early Nov after the US hits its predicted bottom in early/mid Oct. so the question is to hold or sell and buy back at a lower price? Extremely cheap today at under $20 given that most analysts value it at $33-35.




NAB has an amazingly good dividend yield of over 10% fully franked at the current price around $19.15, assuming they can hold or improve their dividend.


----------



## mit

Reminds me back in 2002 where the dividends were over 7% and higher than home loans. You could borrow to buy the banks and make money on the dividend.

However, it is different today, even if our Banks are not hiding many more nasties, the fact that they cannot get funds to loan to others could crimp their earnings quite a bit and if I wanted to buy a bank I wouldn't buy the worst performing bank.


----------



## xoa

If the Australian housing bubble starts to burst, our banks will find themselves in a very difficult position. That's what investors are afraid of. They're profitable for now, but so were Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers until late last year. NAB has been hammered the most, because it has a reputation for being the worst managed Australian bank.


----------



## robots

hello,

so today we had 7 bil sold and 7 bil bought, thats a lot in for the buy man

the funds are setting up there returns

thankyou
robots


----------



## mit

The funds could be ones selling. A third of the volume happened at the lowest price at the market open. sounds like dumping to me.

Of the 32 million shares exchanged 10 million sold at the lowest price.


----------



## oldblue

robots said:


> hello,
> 
> so today we had 7 bil sold and 7 bil bought, thats a lot in for the buy man
> 
> the funds are setting up there returns
> 
> thankyou
> robots




Hi robots.

Where does the 7b figure come from? My broker reckons it was a shade under 32m which admittedly sounds like a bit more than retail investors having a dabble.


----------



## oldblue

oldblue said:


> Hi robots.
> 
> Where does the 7b figure come from? My broker reckons it was a shade under 32m which admittedly sounds like a bit more than retail investors having a dabble.




The penny's finally dropped, robots.
I guess it's the ASX turnover figure for the day? The point is that funds may be buying but funds are also obviously selling.


----------



## mit

xoa said:


> If the Australian housing bubble starts to burst, our banks will find themselves in a very difficult position. That's what investors are afraid of. They're profitable for now, but so were Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers until late last year. NAB has been hammered the most, because it has a reputation for being the worst managed Australian bank.




Hasn't our Housing bubble already burst? I know it kept going for some markets but tt peaked in 2003 for Sydney/Melbourne which are the biggest markets.


----------



## xoa

mit said:


> Hasn't our Housing bubble already burst? I know it kept going for some markets but tt peaked in 2003 for Sydney/Melbourne which are the biggest markets.




Take a look at the median house price in Australia for the past decade. It's spiked like an exponential curve. Dorothy, we're not in Kansas any more.


----------



## Sunder

mit said:


> Hasn't our Housing bubble already burst? I know it kept going for some markets but tt peaked in 2003 for Sydney/Melbourne which are the biggest markets.






xoa said:


> Take a look at the median house price in Australia for the past decade. It's spiked like an exponential curve. Dorothy, we're not in Kansas any more.




Mit was talking Sydney/Melb

Syd:
RPData Index 
30/06/05    538.484
30/06/06	546.197
30/06/07	559.770
30/06/08	562.292


Melb
RPData Index 
30/06/05   353.468
30/06/06   368.093
30/06/07   402.817
30/06/08   444.414

In Sydney, you could have done better holding cash. 

I wouldn't call it the bubble bursting, but it's not exactly "exponential growth" either.


----------



## xoa

Sunder said:


> In Sydney, you could have done better holding cash.
> 
> I wouldn't call it the bubble bursting, but it's not exactly "exponential growth" either.




That's good then (maybe) for any banks which are only exposed to Sydney.

Nationally though, Australian house prices have inflated faster than anywhere else in the English speaking world, including the USA or UK. That in itself makes our banks very vulnerable.


----------



## oldblue

Meanwhile, a nice trade in the banks for those with the money and nerve to have bought yesterday, particularly NAB.
Where to now is the bigger question.


----------



## mit

xoa said:


> That's good then (maybe) for any banks which are only exposed to Sydney.
> 
> Nationally though, Australian house prices have inflated faster than anywhere else in the English speaking world, including the USA or UK. That in itself makes our banks very vulnerable.




I know that WA has still been going strong but I thought that the volume would have been less than the Melbourne/Sydney markets


----------



## mit

oldblue said:


> Meanwhile, a nice trade in the banks for those with the money and nerve to have bought yesterday, particularly NAB.
> Where to now is the bigger question.




I was thinking about it Dividend at 10% and the PE ratio of under 8, it was tempting but I didn't like the fact that it was falling so much faster than the other banks


----------



## Nashezz

I had bought the day before at $21.29 (at what I though was already pretty good value) on margin. So while I wasn't overly concerned at the big drop the next day I was spewing I had bought one day too early to get the fat prophets.... When I looked on Thursday during the day it was $18.80 and probably even lower at some stage!!!!


----------



## chatty

NAB will raise capital by $3 Billion.  Do you think this will have negative impact on its current share price? As this will certainly have dilution effect. In addtion, given the loss from some corporate loans, future dividends will have to be revised down as well imo.


----------



## Ruincity

Chatty i'm no expert but I believe the answer to your question is YES. 
This sort of money hungry BS is unfair to current shareholders.
Especially those holding at higher prices. 

Apparently there is going to be an offer to retail customers to buy at the same price.. 
This will probably be around the time that the price falls below the $20 offer which I predict it now will soon.

Anyway I look at it 2 ways:
1. Fkn greedy bastards you stink.
2. Get in now and make the money before everything goes bust (ie intelligent move because NAB is uncertain and scared).

Consider trying to raise funds for something like Iron Ore in the present times.....
Surprised there hasn't been more discussion regarding this..


----------



## sammy84

I think the opposite will happen, and I quite positive as a NAB shareholder. The capital raising was oversubscribed firstly, indicating the willingness of institutional investors to be part of NAB. Their tier 1 capital will be at 8% now. Also if you look at mirvacs share price today, I think they rose around 15% after a successful capital raising. Finally, but most importantly, they beat ANZ and Westpac to it. The amount that the other banks are going to be raise will have to be lower, or a bigger discount given 3b that NAB has now secured. This can only give NAB a competitive adv against the other banks for any acquisitions in future.


----------



## Ruincity

Fair points Sammy.

In my limited history I have seen few capital raising's that have had a beneficial result on SP. 
It is just an outright admittance of a cheaper value for the SP IMO. 
One thing must be kept in mind that the price is discounted!
And quite substantially I feel.

I am a holder.


----------



## alphaman

sammy84 said:


> most importantly, they beat ANZ and Westpac to it.



It's not that simple. With this placement NAB's tier 1 increases to 8%, but ANZ is already 8.1%. 

Anyway capital raisings rarely reverse price trends. Any price effect is just a reflection of the current state of the general market.


----------



## sammy84

alphaman said:


> It's not that simple. With this placement NAB's tier 1 increases to 8%, but ANZ is already 8.1%.
> 
> Anyway capital raisings rarely reverse price trends. Any price effect is just a reflection of the current state of the general market.




Agreed, this wont be good news for short term investors. However in the long run I think it will help strengthen the company. Does anyone out there think this might be NAB preparing to buy some of suncorp? I have no reason to think this besides the fact it is a very large amount raised.


----------



## dhukka

I nearly fell off my chair laughing when I saw the title of today's announcement by NAB. 

*



			NAB to strengthen further its capital position
		
Click to expand...


*The fact is NAB needs this capital to cushion the writeoffs coming down the pike. Assuming a 20$ issue price NAB will be issuing 150 million shares, a 9% dilution to existing shareholders, yeah that is something to happy about.


----------



## CanOz

dhukka said:


> I nearly fell off my chair laughing when I saw the title of today's announcement by NAB.
> 
> 
> The fact is NAB needs this capital to cushion the writeoffs coming down the pike. Assuming a 20$ issue price NAB will be issuing 150 million shares, a 9% dilution to existing shareholders, yeah that is something to happy about.




Quite surprised that they got what they were after here Dhukka, does that say anything at all? The worst US banks couldn't even raise capital when they needed it.....or is it a reflection of the availability if capital now as compared to a month ago?

Cheers,


COz


----------



## dhukka

CanOz said:


> Quite surprised that they got what they were after here Dhukka, does that say anything at all? The worst US banks couldn't even raise capital when they needed it.....or is it a reflection of the availability if capital now as compared to a month ago?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> COz




Agreed, the glass half full point of view would be that at least they could actually raise capital. Here is a quick quiz though, out of all of the capital injections to US financial institutions, how many of them are trading above the issue price?


----------



## CanOz

dhukka said:


> Agreed, the glass half full point of view would be that at least they could actually raise capital. Here is a quick quiz though, out of all of the capital injections to US financial institutions, how many of them are trading above the issue price?




This is just a guess, but a big zippo, nadda, nil, zilch, goose egg comes to mind?

The sad thing is some may not recover at all, and thats the tax payer who's now the long term investor.

COz


----------



## oldblue

Let's not forget that banks need to continually increase their capital if they are looking to increase their business ( assets).
In NAB's case they are effectively replacing the need to underwrite the next two DRP's which is what banks normally rely on for  their incremental capital increases.


----------



## magnets

hi,
i'm new to shares and need some advice/help
The announcement yesterday about issuing shares has me confused, as i understand it if a company has 100 shares to sell and i buy 10 of them. If they then they release another 100, shouldn't i be issued with a further 10 so that i maintain my % stake in the company?

If this is correct, (i'm with etrade) will my portfolio jump in number of shares held? or do i have to manually adjust it. (and how do ifind out what numbers need adjusting)

If i'm wrong, ugh, I don't want to think if i'm wrong, i bought when they were 25.10

Thanks for helping!


----------



## oldblue

It's big subject but briefly, a company is not obliged to make a pro-rata issue to all shareholders every time it issues new shares. There are rules to follow of course but it means that a shareholder doesn't always get to keep his or her proportion of the capital.
In NAB's present case, they are making a placement to institutional holders to be followed by an offer to retail shareholders of $10,000 worth of new shares, ie 500 shares each. Note that the offer is not proportional - every holder gets offered $10,000 worth.


----------



## nomore4s

magnets said:


> hi,
> i'm new to shares and need some advice/help
> The announcement yesterday about issuing shares has me confused, as i understand it if a company has 100 shares to sell and i buy 10 of them. If they then they release another 100, shouldn't i be issued with a further 10 so that i maintain my % stake in the company?
> 
> If this is correct, (i'm with etrade) will my portfolio jump in number of shares held? or do i have to manually adjust it. (and how do ifind out what numbers need adjusting)
> 
> If i'm wrong, ugh, I don't want to think if i'm wrong, i bought when they were 25.10
> 
> Thanks for helping!




Magnets got some bad news for you.

The reason they are issuing more shares is to raise capital so they will not be giving out shares to existing share holders for free.

You will get nothing from this round of capital raising unless you buy more shares in the capital raising. Your % holding has been diluted as stated by a few of the other posters.


----------



## dlcx

Another newbie here.. so in a case like this, where the SP of NAB has fallen around 8%, is there potential here to buy some for short term gain?
Is there much chance of NAB going up again (eg by 5% in coming weeks)

Or in such a situation, would it contiune to slide?


----------



## YELNATS

$20 a share was never going to be a very enticing offer to existing shareholders. 

With the price around $22-$23 over the past week, they should have been aware that this announcement would have at least a 10% deflationary effect on their share price, which is what has happened now.

A bit of a lose-lose situation. Lose if you don't take it up, lose if you do, or at best only break even.


----------



## Ashsaege

Didn't CBA do a share placement a few months ago? CBA's SP was smashed, but then quickly recovered. I think NAB will follow suit


----------



## skc

Ashsaege said:


> Didn't CBA do a share placement a few months ago? CBA's SP was smashed, but then quickly recovered. I think NAB will follow suit




CBA's placement was specific for the BankWest acquisition. NAB's placement is for general shoring up of capital... so can't really compare the two on even footing imho.


----------



## dhukka

dlcx said:


> Another newbie here.. so in a case like this, where the SP of NAB has fallen around 8%, is there potential here to buy some for short term gain?
> Is there much chance of NAB going up again (eg by 5% in coming weeks)
> 
> Or in such a situation, would it contiune to slide?




What is the chance of it raining on Saturday? This is essentially what you are asking. What do we know about the current environment? There is great volatility at the moment, moves of 5% a day in either direction are possible, so no doubt there will be rallies that you can trade.  

Other things to consider for longer term holders. The current capital raising dilutes existing shareholders by about 9%. Next years eps forecast for NAB was *-1%* (according to comsec). Given the capital raising, the current news on exposure to insolvent firms, NAB's exposure to CDO's and CLO's, and as we enter the really nasty end of the credit cycle, do you think NAB is more likely to be receiving earnings upgrades or downgrades in the next 6 -12 months?   Then, even if you do believe earnings downgrades are forthcoming is it already reflected in the stock price at current levels?


----------



## Ashsaege

skc said:


> CBA's placement was specific for the BankWest acquisition. NAB's placement is for general shoring up of capital... so can't really compare the two on even footing imho.




imho? Sorry I don't know that lingo.

Well yeh cant compare most things on an even footing, though outcomes can still be the same.


----------



## oldblue

Ashsaege said:


> imho? Sorry I don't know that lingo.
> 
> Well yeh cant compare most things on an even footing, though outcomes can still be the same.




I think it means " In my honest opinion".

Some of this shorthand does take a bit of working out but stangely enough, once learnt it seems to stick!


----------



## skc

Ashsaege said:


> imho? Sorry I don't know that lingo.






oldblue said:


> I think it means " In my honest opinion".




I used it as "In my humble opinion" - but the opinion was also honest 

A great function under google is the *define:* _{subject}_. Works for lots of acronyms, short hands and financial terms.


----------



## Ashsaege

skc said:


> I used it as "In my humble opinion" - but the opinion was also honest
> 
> A great function under google is the *define:* _{subject}_. Works for lots of acronyms, short hands and financial terms.




I kinda sound like an old fart who isn't up with today's lingo.. Though actually Im only 22 and I have clocked up many hours over the years chatting on the internet in short hand. IMHO is pretty much the only thing i haven't bothered to learn... i thought it was something similar to LOL


----------



## magnets

> IMHO is pretty much the only thing i haven't bothered to learn... i thought it was something similar to LOL




heh
i spent a year trying to work out why my dad would send me emails, sometimes with very serious news in them and end it with LOL

he thought it was Lots of Love.


----------



## nth brisbanite

I've just received my offer to purchase up to $10,000 worth of new NAB shares.  The most interesting thing for me is that the offer price will be the lesser of (a)$20 and (b)weighted average price during the 5 days before 12th December.  At least I won't be paying $20, and losing money, like the institutions did with NAB's recent $3 billion placement.  The current share price is $19.

I'll probably take up the maximum amount as I consider it to be a good buy.  What is everyone else on this forum doing?


----------



## oldblue

No real science in this but I'm unlikely to participate if the SP stays around current levels. Too many other (seemingly?) attractive stocks around at the moment, competing for my cash when the market turns.
But if the SP were to jump or crash in the last few days before 5 December I may reconsider.


----------



## rewesh04

Boys

The bank is not that dumb, watch the SP for NAB around the end time of the offer, Of course will raise over $20 , or else people will not buy any shares from the offer. Even if the share price stays below $20 mark , the bank itself will buy a huge amount to make the sp goes over $20 . Watch and see !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## oldblue

rewesh04 said:


> Boys
> 
> The bank is not that dumb, watch the SP for NAB around the end time of the offer, Of course will raise over $20 , or else people will not buy any shares from the offer. Even if the share price stays below $20 mark , the bank itself will buy a huge amount to make the sp goes over $20 . Watch and see !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




I'm not sure that NAB is all that concerned if the full $250m ( less than 8% of the total sought ) is not subscribed.They reserve the right to scale back if applications exceed that figure. After all, the institutional offer has already raised $3b and restored NAB's Tier 1 capital to above the magic 8%. 
The SPP should be interpreted as NAB " keeping faith" with its small shareholders, IMO.


----------



## nth brisbanite

rewesh04 said:


> The bank is not that dumb, watch the SP for NAB around the end time of the offer, Of course will raise over $20 , or else people will not buy any shares from the offer. Even if the share price stays below $20 mark , the bank itself will buy a huge amount to make the sp goes over $20 . Watch and see !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Is the above legal?  Isn't that manipulating the market?    I'm sure that ASIC would investigate NAB if they dared to buy huge amounts of shares to pump up the price.


----------



## robots

hello,

they should be sending us letters to sign for the sacking of 80% of the management team because the performance has been pathetic,

Chaney has a lot to answer, and I believe Ahmed Fahour should be stood down for offloading shares at $24 each a month prior to capital raising

thankyou
robots


----------



## ROE

rewesh04 said:


> Boys
> 
> The bank is not that dumb, watch the SP for NAB around the end time of the offer, Of course will raise over $20 , or else people will not buy any shares from the offer. Even if the share price stays below $20 mark , the bank itself will buy a huge amount to make the sp goes over $20 . Watch and see !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




huh? what the hell are you on about?
lot of company has raised equity recently and their share price tank way below the raising equity price.

WES - $30 tank to $19 bucks
CBA - $33-$34 bucks tanks to $29 recently
IPL - $2.50 tank to $2.25 recently recover...still way off $4 mark before
        the equity raising.

I tell you why people buy them at $20 ..most of them are place for institution and that the only time they get to buy a large chunk of shares at fixed price..any other time they have to buy it over weeks and months before they get the required number of shares
and when they do that it could drive the price up 10%-20% by the time they are done buying.

The market decide the price of the stock got nothing to do with they want to maintain a certain price level.. if NAB make more bad debt and the condition get worse you see it tanks below $20, not saying that it will but that how the market works.


----------



## oldblue

That's pretty much how it is.
And you can add SBM and CSR to the list of stocks trading below their recent issue price - although 'recent" might be stretching things a bit in SBM's case.


----------



## skyQuake

NAB making a break. 

Tiny volume on the break and follow-thru today prob means this is some kind of false break.


----------



## oldblue

There's been a bit of talk about the prospect of NAB needing to have another capital raising.
After the success of the ANZ "easy money" SPP it's possible that there's a bit of a rush to get set with a few NAB in case they follow suit.

The story is a few days old but here it is.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...t-capital-raising-TTDZQ?OpenDocument&src=srch


----------



## skyQuake

And here we have a nice island reversal coupled with a false brk. Might re-enter shorts at end of day.


----------



## dracula

skyQuake said:


> And here we have a nice island reversal coupled with a false brk. Might re-enter shorts at end of day.




The SPP offer is $21.50
I wonder if the market price will drop further on Mon, or we can hedge to lock in 80 cents profit...


----------



## skyQuake

dracula said:


> The SPP offer is $21.50
> I wonder if the market price will drop further on Mon, or we can hedge to lock in 80 cents profit...




I'm short NAB and playing it on the short side so take my bearishness with a grain of salt.

In _general_ the share price takes a dive on the day the instos trade their placed stocks. 
I'm loving the price action at the moment. Dow up 2%, NAB ends the day in the red; False brk, island reversal, laggin price leaders - all say loads about how NAB is gonna fare.


----------



## nomore4s

skyQuake said:


> I'm short NAB and playing it on the short side so take my bearishness with a grain of salt.
> 
> In _general_ the share price takes a dive on the day the instos trade their placed stocks.
> I'm loving the price action at the moment. Dow up 2%, NAB ends the day in the red; False brk, island reversal, laggin price leaders - all say loads about how NAB is gonna fare.




You don't think that gap might be filled though?

I've noticed on alot of the stocks that have had capital raisings gap down and then end up trading back at the price level before the raising not long afterwards. This probably has more to do with the strength in the market lately though.


----------



## skyQuake

nomore4s said:


> You don't think that gap might be filled though?
> 
> I've noticed on alot of the stocks that have had capital raisings gap down and then end up trading back at the price level before the raising not long afterwards. This probably has more to do with the strength in the market lately though.




Though there is that possibility, I consider that remote for now. Its still technically an island reversal, and I'm waiting for it to play out. In the meanwhile I would still be playing NAB to the short side, though I do expect a squeeze sooner or later.
-----------------
This is NAB's second raising in 12 months, and it was the bad debt provisions that drove it down, rather than the cap raising. Have a look at BBG, they raised, and never got back up again.

Cheers


----------



## Motogoon

Hey, i've never bought shares from a share purchase plan but have a opportunity to with NAB.

Is there a minimum amount of time i have to hold them after purchasing or can i just sell them as soon as i get them? 

Seems like an easy way to make a quick profit if you're allowed to do that & if the price stays where it is.


----------



## oldblue

Motogoon said:


> Hey, i've never bought shares from a share purchase plan but have a opportunity to with NAB.
> 
> Is there a minimum amount of time i have to hold them after purchasing or can i just sell them as soon as i get them?
> 
> Seems like an easy way to make a quick profit if you're allowed to do that & if the price stays where it is.




Offer closes 21 August.

Allotment date 31 August.

Holding statements/Confirmation Advice despatched 2 September.

No minimum time required to hold once you know you have them.


----------



## ajjack

Maximum application is only $15K, and even then it is likely
to be scaled back.

Not to worry, there's still a quick and easy profit to be made,
provided the markets stay strong for a few more weeks.


----------



## YELNATS

ajjack said:


> Maximum application is only $15K, and even then it is likely
> to be scaled back.
> 
> Not to worry, there's still a quick and easy profit to be made,
> provided the markets stay strong for a few more weeks.




I wonder how the scale back will be performed.

Will it be a set % scaleback for all amounts up to $15,000 or will the higher amounts be scaled back by a bigger % than the lower amounts?

The answer to this could determine how much I allocate to this SPP, as I don't want to tie up cash unnecessarily even for perhaps a couple of weeks, when it will only be refunded to me.


----------



## oldblue

YELNATS said:


> I wonder how the scale back will be performed.
> 
> Will it be a set % scaleback for all amounts up to $15,000 or will the higher amounts be scaled back by a bigger % than the lower amounts?
> 
> The answer to this could determine how much I allocate to this SPP, as I don't want to tie up cash unnecessarily even for perhaps a couple of weeks, when it will only be refunded to me.




With the paper profit at over 20% on current SP I won't be worrying about tying up a bit of cash for a couple of weeks!


----------



## hijk

I received two different applications for the NAB share offer for different holdings.

The application says any shareholder can only apply for a maximum of $15k. 

If allocations are scaled back as seems likely, and there is a minimum number of shares offered to each holding after a scale back, I might get a bigger allocation by splitting my application over the two separate holdings.

Does anyone more experienced know how scale backs are typically done ?


----------



## oldblue

I'm not sure that there's anything "typical".

I've seen situations where up to a minimum amount has been allocated, then a percentage. Sometimes it's a reducing percentage above a minimum, sometimes it's an absolute percentage. Personally, if I had the funds I wouldn't try to finesse the game but would apply for the max and hope for the best. The opportunity cost of tying up funds for a couple of weeks shouldn't be a consideration, IMO.


----------



## YELNATS

hijk said:


> I received two different applications for the NAB share offer for different holdings.
> 
> The application says any shareholder can only apply for a maximum of $15k.
> 
> If allocations are scaled back as seems likely, and there is a minimum number of shares offered to each holding after a scale back, I might get a bigger allocation by splitting my application over the two separate holdings.
> 
> Does anyone more experienced know how scale backs are typically done ?




I'm in the same position, with 2 different holdings, one inside a SMSF, the other outside.

My gut feel tells me to apply for the same amount for both holdings, that way to secure the most shares in total.


----------



## YELNATS

oldblue said:


> With the paper profit at over 20% on current SP I won't be worrying about tying up a bit of cash for a couple of weeks!




Point taken. It's just that I don't have unlimited funds and would also like to participate in BEN's SPP which is around the same time. 

At the moment BEN's market price of $8.65 is around 28% above their offer price of $6.75.

Need to make the most hay possible while the sun shines.


----------



## oldblue

YELNATS said:


> Point taken. It's just that I don't have unlimited funds and would also like to participate in BEN's SPP which is around the same time.
> 
> At the moment BEN's market price of $8.65 is around 28% above their offer price of $6.75.
> 
> Need to make the most hay possible while the sun shines.




I wouldn't normally do it but in that situation if I didn't have something else to sell I'd be tempted to try to raise a short term loan from my wife, my mother, my kids .............


----------



## skyQuake

Put it on the credit card even! Free money!

Preferably the BEN cc, so that way they make money, and might haev a surprise profit upgrade before you get your SPP shares


----------



## Taltan

Why not just sell the existing NAB or BEN shares that you must of had to have the SPP entitlement. Sell BEN at 8.65 and buy at 6.75. Even considering the scale back risk its a damm good deal


----------



## oldblue

Taltan said:


> Why not just sell the existing NAB or BEN shares that you must of had to have the SPP entitlement. Sell BEN at 8.65 and buy at 6.75. Even considering the scale back risk its a damm good deal




Precisely.

Unless of course you were only holding a handful of shares to qualify for any SPP's around.


----------



## SilverRanger

Anyone here knows how the scale back works for NAB?  The offer document didn't state this in detail.

And of course we would all hope that NAB would do what ANZ did to please its retail shareholders, but how likely would this be?


----------



## Rainmaker2000

Scale back will happen........I don't know the methodology........I only own 28 NAB shares......so whatever the scale back, it will be a substantial increase to holdings


----------



## oldblue

Yes. a scale back is almost certain given the tone of NAB's announcements and the rumoured adverse reaction of underwriters to ANZ's decision to accept all applications in full.

NAB reserve the right on this of course and also method of scaleback.


----------



## robots

hello,

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...etail-can-deny-you-profits-20090814-el9z.html

from what i can gather, you will get what you are eligible to purchase

so if no participation in 2008 raising get 15k if you want, if participated then get difference up to 15k if you want

750mil would be accounted for on worst case scenario (full participation to last $)

thankyou
robots


----------



## SilverRanger

http://business.smh.com.au/business/nab-sticks-to-750m-issue-cap-20090816-embu.html
That's probably one more sign of a heavy scale back....


----------



## oldblue

SilverRanger said:


> http://business.smh.com.au/business/nab-sticks-to-750m-issue-cap-20090816-embu.html
> That's probably one more sign of a heavy scale back....




I agree with that.

Without doing the sums on $750m/ # shareholders ( and we don't know how many will be restricted to less than $15k ) I would have thought that a scale back would be almost inevitable.


----------



## johenmo

QBE was about 20% of what you asked for.  So I have put in, expecting 20-40% (all will be fine).  The rest of this is to make 100 characters.


----------



## YELNATS

NAB just announced a massive scale back to their spp. 

$2.6 billion received when they only wanted $750 million. 

This means instead of getting about 697 shares if you applied with $15,000, you only get about 201 shares.

Disappointing for retail investors, but I guess we'll have to make do.


----------



## SilverRanger

Actually it's good that we know this early as that will make our hedging easier 
No complaints with $1100 in less than 2 weeks


----------



## liodj

yes...$1K is good enough...

however any one know when we will get the refund for the unallocated fund????


----------



## Motogoon

Bummer, i chickened out & only got the 5k package.

Looks like i'll be getting diddly squat.

If you're listening NAB i think you should reduce all the 10 & 15k packages down to 5k & leave the 5k as they are, ha! should work out about right.


----------



## johenmo

Motogoon said:


> Bummer, i chickened out & only got the 5k package.
> 
> Looks like i'll be getting diddly squat.
> 
> If you're listening NAB i think you should reduce all the 10 & 15k packages down to 5k & leave the 5k as they are, ha! should work out about right.




I went for 5K because 5K was all I wanted if I got the lot.  So I'm happy with that.  Still a few hundred bucks on todays price is ok.

But NAB should listen to you!!


----------



## YELNATS

liodj said:


> however any one know when we will get the refund for the unallocated fund????




According to NAB's 25 August announcement,

Quote
Accordingly, the offer price for each NAB Share under the
2009 SPP is A$21.50. The NAB shares are expected to be allotted on 31 August 2009. The difference between the value of applications and the value of final allocations will be promptly refunded by NAB following allotment of the shares.
Unquote

So I guess the refunds will start flowing from next Monday. I hope mine goes straight into my bank account since I need to use the money for BEN's spp which closes Friday Sept 4.


----------



## Taltan

Not happy. 1k nice but 3k would be better. Actually I wouldnt mind except that us retail holders get screwed by the instituitons. Surely its time ASIC/ASX heard of internet banking and got things in order.

I need my non-alloted money back by Sep 4th for the GMG offer, but I dont like my chances. If there's no word by Monday I'll have to raise the GMG funds elsewhere.


----------



## Amor_Fati

I know people have predicted around 200 shares for those who applied for the full amount. Just to confirm, I checked my Investor Centre service at www.computershare.com.au and I have 202 more NAB registered than I used to. 

They have not shown up in my Commsec account though so I don't think I can sell them yet. I don't need to sell them though as I sold some as soon as I sent my cheque off to reduce my exposure a bit. I sold 250 because I didn't want to end up with too many more than I started with


----------



## SilverRanger

Amor_Fati said:


> I know people have predicted around 200 shares for those who applied for the full amount. Just to confirm, I checked my Investor Centre service at www.computershare.com.au and I have 202 more NAB registered than I used to.
> 
> They have not shown up in my Commsec account though so I don't think I can sell them yet. I don't need to sell them though as I sold some as soon as I sent my cheque off to reduce my exposure a bit. I sold 250 because I didn't want to end up with too many more than I started with




Sold off the allocated 202 shares today. (I am with NAB as the broker, maybe that explains why I get to sell the shares quicker?  )


----------



## YELNATS

Received my 2 lots of 202 shares today and continuing to hold. The price has performed remarkably well today - up about 3% despite some inevitable sell-offs of the new allocations.


----------



## nalima

I am still waiting for my lots. I do not know where the shares will end up , it does not show in my Etrade account.


----------



## nomore4s

nalima said:


> I am still waiting for my lots. I do not know where the shares will end up , it does not show in my Etrade account.




They should end up in the account where the shares that qualified you for the spp are held.

They should show up in your etrade account tomorrow.

You can also check this link to see your holdings - this should be up to date.
http://www-au.computershare.com/Default.asp?bhjs=1&amp;fla=0&cc=AU&lang=EN

In the login in box at the top right bring up "Check a holding" and follow the process from there.


----------



## nulla nulla

I'm a bit cheesed off. I had to sell shares that were increasing in value to raise $15,000.00. Now I find out instead of getting 698 shares I will likely only receive 202 shares. 
They have had my $15,000.00 for weeks and will repay the difference on 2 September 2009. I think it sucks that NAB issued bulk shares to the institutions and shafted the long suffering retail holders, rather than looking to the retail shareholders first then going to institutional investors for any shortfall. 
Just another example of the Directors and Managers looking after their bonuses and exorbitant salary packages in cahoots with the institutional investors at the expence of shareholders. I mean, lets be honest about this, it was the institutional share holders that were lending out shares to hedge funds to short the shares that drove down the prices in the first place.


----------



## airpoe

nulla nulla said:


> I'm a bit cheesed off. I had to sell shares that were increasing in value to raise $15,000.00. Now I find out instead of getting 698 shares I will likely only receive 202 shares.
> They have had my $15,000.00 for weeks and will repay the difference on 2 September 2009. I think it sucks that NAB issued bulk shares to the institutions and shafted the long suffering retail holders, rather than looking to the retail shareholders first then going to institutional investors for any shortfall.
> Just another example of the Directors and Managers looking after their bonuses and exorbitant salary packages in cahoots with the institutional investors at the expence of shareholders. I mean, lets be honest about this, it was the institutional share holders that were lending out shares to hedge funds to short the shares that drove down the prices in the first place.



I am in the same boat as you!!

Had to sell all my 247 NAB shares to raise $15k.
They probably saw the price being so high that they don't want the little investors to make to much gain & gain more power (money)

And the slow refund as well, didn't they state they will refund when the shares are allocated?


----------



## nomore4s

No offence, but the terms of the spp were clearly set out with a maximum of $750 million to be raised, it is pretty standard to offer it to the institutional investors first and in a way retail investors are lucky to even get a crack at all imo.

The risk of scale back was well known before buying into the SPP. Selling your existing holdings was your choice and there was little doubt that the spp would be oversubscribed and therefore scaled back with the current sp so far above the issue price.

lol, nulla nulla it wasn't short selling that drove the share prices down it was a little thing called the GFC.


----------



## oldblue

Yes, that's the way it was.

We all went into this issue knowing that the odds on a heavy scale-back were pretty high, although perhaps also hoping for a better result a la ANZ's issue.
On the bright side, we got a few shares at a good price and the NAB SP continues to perform.

Glass half full.


----------



## doctorj

Word here is that NAB are running the numbers on UK based insurer Legal & General - FT have covered the story today.  It might make some sense, NAB has a bit of a war chest, can't buy much in Aus, the AUD is strong and L&G have been in play for some time.  They already sell L&G policies through their branch network here and L&G has a reputation as one of the most efficient players in the market (and therefore you could draw parallels with the takeover of MLC).  

It won't come cheap, but there is plenty of upside with EU rules potentially giving them greater access to Europe.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

NAB in a trading halt this morning after announcing a takeover offer for AXA APH which has been recommended by the independent directors of AXA to be accepted.

Link to the investor presentation released by NAB: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091217/pdf/31msn3k8sc1sln.pdf

NAB will pay A$4.61 billion, payable in cash or a combination of NAB shares and cash at the election of AXA shareholders.  NAB will undertake a pro-rata equity raising of A$1.5 billion to help pay for the acquisition.

Two trades were done this morning before NAB was halted.  It will be interesting to see how the market takes this given that all the public speculation was the AXA SA/AMP bid for AXA APH.

Disc - don't own NAB shares but almost bought them yesterday and I still remain interested in them at the moment.


----------



## The Owls

Good afternoon. Can someone please explain why NAB share  have been dropping over the past 4-6 weeks and in particular the reason for a 4-650% drop today.


----------



## skc

The Owls said:


> Good afternoon. Can someone please explain why NAB share  have been dropping over the past 4-6 weeks and in particular the reason for a 4-650% drop today.




Fall in past 4-6 weeks was much in line with the overall finance sector. All the banks have come a long way since the bottom. Some retracement is probably in line even if the fundamental are still there.

The fall today was due to the AXA takeover announcement. NAB is planning to do a rights issue to fund the bid. Probably over done given the rights not even been issued yet!


----------



## Bill M

skc said:


> The fall today was due to the AXA takeover announcement. NAB is planning to do a rights issue to fund the bid. Probably over done given the rights not even been issued yet!




I am in the process of cashing up in order to purchase any entitlements through the rights issue. The lower NAB shares go in the short term the cheaper we can pick up the rights issue. Details are a bit sketchy at the moment. Been waiting for an opportunity to buy in at lower prices.


----------



## oldblue

I don't see this being a big rights issue if NAB are looking to raise 'only' $1.5b, as indicated.

At say $25ps and with over 2b shares on issue it would only need about a 1 for 30 issue to do the job. Of course, NAB might take the opportunity to raise more than the $1.5b and they may discount the rights price below $25. But in any case, it shouldn't be a huge call on individual shareholders, assuming one doesn't hold stacks of the stuff!



Disc: Modest holder.


----------



## Kryzz

NAB looks interesting from a technical point of view too, with RE to EW, law of alternation in play, sitting in the retracement zone also, maybe poised for a gap fill trade too?


----------



## McCoy Pauley

NAB subsidiary Great Western cherry-picking distressed banking assets in the USA, this time picking off a farming-based bank in Iowa.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/nab-snaps-up-struggling-us-bank-assets-20100202-n9qq.html

Disc - I hold NAB shares.


----------



## The Owls

I am just wondering where are the financial analysts comments as to why NAB shares have dropped 17.30% since 10th Oct 2009. If other companies shares had dropped this amount the newspapers would be full of their opinions. Can anyone in simple talk explain this massive drop.


----------



## oldblue

It's probably got something to do with the NAB's substantial exposure to the UK market which the other big 3 don't have.


----------



## Taltan

I would put NAB drop down to:-
- CBA & WBC being more aggressive during the GFC in increasing their residntial loan books, taking away NAB's market share
- NAB's exposire to the UK
- The banks poor history in making money when going overseas, as NAB propose to further do in the UK
- The Obama proposal to tax US banks. Future regulatory risk

NAB is leader in business lending, and basically businesses have suffered much more than residential properties during the GFC. I'm a small NAB holder and am quite happy with the stock. Firtly, the current margins between business and residential are very high and going forward can only really work in NAB's favour. Secondly they may just be buying UK assets at once in a lifetime prices

My $0.02 worth


----------



## McCoy Pauley

NAB taking a beating this morning after releasing its quarterly trading update to the market before the ASX opened.  Down about 2.7%, whereas the other three "big four" banks are all enjoying rises so far today.

I thought the update seemed to be positive for NAB, with unaudited cash earnings over $1 billion, with a decline in charge for bad and doubtful debts by more than $200 million in the quarter.  About half the wholesale funding has been raised to date without the use of any government guarantees.  The capital position has improved.

Surely the fact that NAB couldn't announce anything concrete regarding the AXA APH takeover offer isn't weighing the market down that much.  I must be missing something???

Disc - I hold NAB shares.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

Positive announcement but not positive enough when compared to the other "big four" banks.

NAB always seems to surprise on the down-side recently.  I'm hoping that the ACCC blocks the takeover of AXA APH to stop the NAB from spending so much money on that acquisition.


----------



## oldblue

The NAB SP took a big jump a few days ago when WBC announced its quarterly update - something like 6.5% in a couple of days. Today's retracement is a case of fact not matching anticipation. ANZ is probably in for the same treatment next week if it doesn't perform to market expectations!


----------



## Fang42

I noticed yesterday that the NAB now has 5% of SUN am i missing something here or is there a possibility that NAB may make an offer for Sun or doe it just consider it a good buy Thoughts anyone??


----------



## McCoy Pauley

I seem to recall reading that the ACCC might release its findings on the NAB-AXA takeover today but nothing has emerged (not even a peep about when the ACCC might reschedule its release).

Anyone else able to shed any light on this?  I've been interstate and away from the internet for the last few days so I might have missed something.

Disc - I hold NAB.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

NAB has announced to the market after it closed that it has signed a binding agreement with AXA and AXA APH to purchase the Australian and New Zealand businesses of AXA APH for $4.6 billion as part of a proposal to acquire all shares in AXA APH.  AXA will purchase the Asian businesses for $9.4 billion, including $700 million to pay off AXA APH debt.

ASX announcement here.

Still subject to ACCC approval.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

AXA APH has issued a release to the market which summarises the key features of the deal.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100330/pdf/31pjylzbh6cgt2.pdf


----------



## robusta

AMP were offering to much for AXA, NAB will pay way over the odds if the ACCC lets them go ahead


----------



## oldblue

robusta said:


> AMP were offering to much for AXA, NAB will pay way over the odds if the ACCC lets them go ahead




I'm not sure how outsiders would value AXA from the point of view of AMP and NAB.

Both regard it as the last big chance to beef up their wealth management businesses and are prepared to pay a premium for that. So there is an element of strategy involved in the price. The difference between the two is that AMP couldn't afford to pay the premium without making an unpopular dilutive capital issue. NAB doesn't have that problem.


----------



## sptrawler

I can understand AMP making a play for AXA to increase critical mass. However why NAB would make a play until the findings of the review into superannuation commissions and fees is finalised is beyond me.


----------



## robusta

oldblue said:


> I'm not sure how outsiders would value AXA from the point of view of AMP and NAB.
> 
> Both regard it as the last big chance to beef up their wealth management businesses and are prepared to pay a premium for that. So there is an element of strategy involved in the price. The difference between the two is that AMP couldn't afford to pay the premium without making an unpopular dilutive capital issue. NAB doesn't have that problem.




I take your point that is how NAB will justify the aquisition but I think the price they are paying will take ages to pay back and it will dilute the returns for NAB shareholders for years to come. But hey I bet some executives get some nice bonuses. I am just glad I hold CBA instead.


----------



## JTLP

So what's with the NAB anyway? Is this recent AXA bid keeping them down?

They seem to be the bank out of the big 4 that lags the most...what gives? Don't know if you can see on the chart (yearly) but they are the bold, CBA is the thin black, ANZ is the red and WBC is the green.







Do they have the most nasties in the closet? Mmm


----------



## oldblue

JTLP said:


> So what's with the NAB anyway? Is this recent AXA bid keeping them down?
> 
> They seem to be the bank out of the big 4 that lags the most...what gives? Don't know if you can see on the chart (yearly) but they are the bold, CBA is the thin black, ANZ is the red and WBC is the green.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do they have the most nasties in the closet? Mmm




There's also the uncertainty around NAB's British business. They are shortlisted with others to buy RBS branch network. Not everyone agrees that would be a good move!


----------



## vincent191

robusta said:


> I take your point that is how NAB will justify the aquisition but I think the price they are paying will take ages to pay back and it will dilute the returns for NAB shareholders for years to come. But hey I bet some executives get some nice bonuses. I am just glad I hold CBA instead.




Whew....the  ACCC had saved NAB from themselves, now to see the sp catch up what it had losted since the t/o bid was announced. Honestly, I believe some of the NAB executives wouldn't find their own bottoms with both hands with the lights switched on.

NAB's performance is the worst of the big four and had not taken advantage of the GFC and picked up any bargains. Well, the pigeon had flown, forget it, just use the cash wisely like giving it back to the shareholders instead of trying to find ways to blow it.

I tried to be safe and have invested in all four, in my financial portfolio NAB holds the wooden spoon.


----------



## oldblue

In a race with four starters there's always going to be a wooden spooner. But havn't the other three run well lately!

However, we may not have seen the last of NAB's bid with talk today of "reconfiguring" a new one.


----------



## vincent191

oldblue said:


> In a race with four starters there's always going to be a wooden spooner. But havn't the other three run well lately!
> 
> However, we may not have seen the last of NAB's bid with talk today of "reconfiguring" a new one.




That is my biggest fear, NAB still want to ignore market and shareholders sentiments and press on with the t/o.  Well go on ahead then NAB management and if it turns out to be a dud hopefully you guys have the decency to fall on your swords.


----------



## drsmith

A comparison of NAB's and WBC's share prices from late 1992 (when WBC was on it's knees) and today does not reflect well on NAB's management.


----------



## The Owls

Quote from SMH today
"National Australia Bank's traditional strength in business banking has failed to offset a drop in the group's half-year statutory profits which have slid by a fifth to $2.1 billion due to the group's exposure to volatile financial trading factors.

While NAB's cash earnings – the banking industry's preferred measure of profit which excludes such volatility – rose by 21 per cent to $2.2 billion – the figure directly attributable to shareholders dropped by the same percentage because of the need to account for the trading swings. The cash result was in line with analysts' forecasts"

http://www.smh.com.au/business/nab-stingy-with-dividend-as-profit-drops-20100506-ub86.html

*Could someone please explain in very simple terms what this means*.


----------



## drsmith

The Owls said:


> Quote from SMH today
> ".......due to the group's exposure to volatile financial trading factors.
> 
> *Could someone please explain in very simple terms what this means*.



Generally something that cannot be explained simply or favourably or both.

You'll most likely have to dig into the accounts to find an explanation.


----------



## ROE

The Owls said:


> Quote from SMH today
> "National Australia Bank's traditional strength in business banking has failed to offset a drop in the group's half-year statutory profits which have slid by a fifth to $2.1 billion due to the group's exposure to volatile financial trading factors.
> 
> While NAB's cash earnings – the banking industry's preferred measure of profit which excludes such volatility – rose by 21 per cent to $2.2 billion – the figure directly attributable to shareholders dropped by the same percentage because of the need to account for the trading swings. The cash result was in line with analysts' forecasts"
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/nab-stingy-with-dividend-as-profit-drops-20100506-ub86.html
> 
> *Could someone please explain in very simple terms what this means*.




What they saying is NAB is involve in derivatives and risky financial instruments that has a drop in earning but they don't earn enough in business lending to offset the big drop 

I don't have NAB shares so I don't know for sure but that my interpretation of it ....  

check their books and financial statement to be sure..


----------



## robertgordon

NAB : 23rd August /+1 should turn out to be a very significant turning point for NAB . The most likely prospect is a   Seasonal Low into the 23rd if the current trend continues down . The 23rd August is Square or 90 degrees Anglo from the 21st May Low and 150 degrees in Longitude from March 21st which is 0 degrees on the Square , many important changes in trend culminate around these dates .


----------



## trainspotter

Have recently changed their website to make it more user friendly. LOL ... all they have done is made the FONT bigger and the icons LARGER to click on. WOW !!

A big concern for me is the amount of bad debt they are carrying (1.064 billion as at June 30th 2010) and their need to raise at least $2 billion via a fully underwritten institutional share placement to cover this debt. Possible 10% discount on current share value?  Looking at raising 2.75 billion in total. There will also be a retail offering to raise a further $750 million.

Hmmmmmmmmmm ... and I bank with this mighty finance institution.


----------



## kash

Thanks for those points. Actually looking at moment which would be the best bank to invest in for growth. NAB might be out??


----------



## oldblue

trainspotter said:


> Have recently changed their website to make it more user friendly. LOL ... all they have done is made the FONT bigger and the icons LARGER to click on. WOW !!
> 
> A big concern for me is the amount of bad debt they are carrying (1.064 billion as at June 30th 2010) and their need to raise at least $2 billion via a fully underwritten institutional share placement to cover this debt. Possible 10% discount on current share value?  Looking at raising 2.75 billion in total. There will also be a retail offering to raise a further $750 million.
> 
> Hmmmmmmmmmm ... and I bank with this mighty finance institution.




All banks make some bad loans, it's an unavoidable part of the business. It's important however to put these numbers in context.

NAB has total assets of around $650 *billion* including loans of $427b.

Equity at 31 March 2010 was $38b, earnings for the half year were over $2b.

Banks need to increase their capital regularly to enable them to maintain capital ratios to increase lending. I havn't seen a recent announcement though. What is the refernce for this?


----------



## robusta

May be worth another look at NAB now the ACCC have stopped them paying a massive premium to buy AXA. It should ring alarm bells to directors when the regulator knocks them back and the sp jumps 4%


----------



## trainspotter

oldblue said:


> All banks make some bad loans, it's an unavoidable part of the business. It's important however to put these numbers in context.
> 
> NAB has total assets of around $650 *billion* including loans of $427b.
> 
> Equity at 31 March 2010 was $38b, earnings for the half year were over $2b.
> 
> Banks need to increase their capital regularly to enable them to maintain capital ratios to increase lending. I havn't seen a recent announcement though. What is the refernce for this?




My complete apologies oldblue. I was quoting old figures. They are down to a "writeoff" of 514 million of bad debt with no script needed for funds. I do apologise for posting such bad erudition. I was having a bad hair day with my "upline" manager of NAB and wanted to be snarky.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

Finally senior management listen to the market and abandon the AXA takeover once and for all.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/nab-pulls-out-of-axa-bid-20100914-15as4.html


----------



## awg

I would be annoyed if I was a NAB holder, or customer

How ludicrous is this debacle with peoples money?

Very bad for sentiment

Sometime early this week I reckon the IT Manager will be 
needing to examine the "show cause" clause in their employment contract.


----------



## Greedy_Kev

awg said:


> I would be annoyed if I was a NAB holder, or customer
> 
> How ludicrous is this debacle with peoples money?
> 
> Very bad for sentiment
> 
> Sometime early this week I reckon the IT Manager will be
> needing to examine the "show cause" clause in their employment contract.




I'm a nab share holder and customer, and believe the media is over stating the crisis, it's bad but only for those who are living on the edge and so shouldn't be that bad for SP over a longer period.


----------



## prawn_86

Full year profits down 22% compared to last year on the back of restructuring their UK division and "ineffective hedging"


----------



## Bill M

It's hardly effected the share price, only down .03c at the moment. Dividend is maintained at .90c which is close to 7% fully franked for the year. I'll be hanging on to these a while longer.


----------



## Knobby22

Well I thought the results are pretty unimpressive.
Losing money in England + relying heavily on business loans that aren't happening at present due to lack of confidence.

If the world economy turns NAB is in a great place but under present conditions it deserves a lower rating than the other banks, especially CBA and ANZ.


----------



## Julia

Knobby22 said:


> Well I thought the results are pretty unimpressive.
> Losing money in England + relying heavily on business loans that aren't happening at present due to lack of confidence.
> 
> If the world economy turns NAB is in a great place but under present conditions it deserves a lower rating than the other banks, especially CBA and ANZ.



Agree.   Was Cameron Clyne CEO at the time of the forex scandal and the Homeside Lending debacle?


----------



## Klogg

Julia said:


> Agree.   Was Cameron Clyne CEO at the time of the forex scandal and the Homeside Lending debacle?




I believe the forex one was John Stewart, and the Homeside lending Ahmed Fahour.

Having worked under all three of these CEOs, Clyne is by far the best IMO.


----------



## Bill M

NAB has had it's problems over the last decade or so, everybody knows about it. It however has always still made profits and paid dividends. I've had NAB over 10 years off and on and this is what I think:

In 10 years the share price has grown an unimpressive 3% or so. During that whole time the dividends kept on rolling in. I have sold at higher prices and then bought back at lower prices so I have been gambling as well.

If I had just held the first parcel from 10 years ago then I would have annualised a 10% gross income (including growth, dividends and franking) in that period of time. For a so called dud that is still a good return for a self funded retiree! In fact I did better because I bought and sold.

I still hold a small batch at a profit, if it goes much lower I will be buying another batch before ex dividend date. There are current problems and write downs but I think NAB is a long off from being a basket case. They are doing very well with UBank and Australia in general. 

I also have shareholder benefits, like for example a free Qantas Platinum Card with free travel insurance each year. 

I am hoping and waiting for lower prices and with a big fat juicy dividend on the way I have no intention of selling my current stock.


----------



## skc

Bill M said:


> If I had just held the first parcel from 10 years ago then I would have annualised a 10% gross income (including growth, dividends and franking) in that period of time. For a so called dud that is still a good return for a self funded retiree! In fact I did better because I bought and sold.




You have to compared that with the other Big 3 though...


----------



## Bill M

skc said:


> You have to compared that with the other Big 3 though...




Correct, I hold those too and they did even better. CBA is by far the stand out for me.


----------



## burglar

Bill M said:


> Correct, I hold those too and they did even better. CBA is by far the stand out for me.




After 32 years of unhurried deliberation, 
I have decided to dip once more, into Blue Chips.
NAB is my choice because: 

a). I believe they are undervalued.
b). The shareprice appears volatile (to me).
c). Good yield.

Like you Bill M, I will endeavour to trade them!
Else, I might go medium term for the growth.
Otherwise, I just might hold them forever for the dividend.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

burglar said:


> After 32 years of unhurried deliberation,
> I have decided to dip once more, into Blue Chips.
> NAB is my choice because:
> 
> a). I believe they are undervalued.
> b). The shareprice appears volatile (to me).
> c). Good yield.
> 
> Like you Bill M, I will endeavour to trade them!
> Else, I might go medium term for the growth.
> Otherwise, I just might hold them forever for the dividend.




A very good punt, burglar, but beware, at this point and beyond.

I read in the AFR that some mob of brokers had upgraded NAB to a buy from outperform, " reluctantly " they said. I do love the English language, truths and lies hidden in nuances.

This often imo precedes a fall in price, as brokers generally distribute parlous stock from their strong holders to the weak, i.e. institutions to mums and dads. 

I won't post a chart. It has been in an uptrend since you bought, but in a long term trading range, about to touch the top.

I would buy if it went beyond $27-$28, or retreated to $17.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'd be watching for the next high volume bar, above 10m shares traded, and examining it carefully, for direction on this stock.







gg


----------



## burglar

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd be watching for the next high volume bar, above 10m shares traded, and examining it carefully, for direction on this stock.
> 
> gg




I squint at your chart, and I see that it is rising!

:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

burglar said:


> I squint at your chart, and I see that it is rising!
> 
> :




I too rise sometimes, a little, but subsequently don't perform.

I would be watching for a big sudden rise in volume. Over 10m.

Then watch the bar on that day and following, for direction.

The RSI is seriously overbought presently.

Compare it to the RSI in early November when it was oversold.

And remember, the brokers are saying " buy " , " reluctantly ", covering their pristine arses.

A sure sign the instos are selling to the punters.

gg


----------



## burglar

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I too rise sometimes, a little, but subsequently don't perform.
> 
> I would be watching for a big sudden rise in volume. Over 10m.
> 
> Then watch the bar on that day and following, for direction.
> 
> The RSI is seriously overbought presently.
> 
> Compare it to the RSI in early November when it was oversold.
> 
> And remember, the brokers are saying " buy " , " reluctantly ", covering their pristine arses.
> 
> A sure sign the instos are selling to the punters.
> 
> gg




I make it 115 trading days (give or take) to Divvie day!
I may hold in faith, while I squint at the chart.

Meanwhile, I will continuously review!


----------



## sydboy007

here's to no further scares from the UK and a nice rerating of the shares.  looking forward to the may dividend.

the share price has taken off since some fund managers have advised to rotate out of CBA since it's gotten quite expensive and move into NAB.


----------



## stevier95

sydboy007 said:


> here's to no further scares from the UK and a nice rerating of the shares.  looking forward to the may dividend.
> 
> the share price has taken off since some fund managers have advised to rotate out of CBA since it's gotten quite expensive and move into NAB.




About time! Been holding with crossed fingers since 2008, albeit picking up some nice divvies along the way.


----------



## stevier95

Santander mulls $3b bid for NAB's UK banks: report

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...anks-report-20130121-2d1vy.html#ixzz2IYufPMRt


----------



## burglar

stevier95 said:


> Santander mulls $3b bid for NAB's UK banks: report
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...anks-report-20130121-2d1vy.html#ixzz2IYufPMRt




A nice run todate:


----------



## burglar

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ...  above 10m shares traded, ...




Today: 9,948,259 traded.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

burglar said:


> Today: 9,948,259 traded.




It looks good but looking at the bars since Xmas, it has some of the features of a bull trap.

The big boys are back from holidays next week.

We will see.

You could be correct in your analysis. More volume and bullish bars and I'll be in.

Not yet though.

In retrospect that first bar in the chart below was the best entry point, high volume, desperate sellers, and opportunistic buyers.






gg


----------



## tinhat

yep yep. Put a buy order in over the weekend then cancelled it before I went to bed on Sunday night. Certainly the laggard of the big four in terms of price to dividend. I don't know if there are any others here like me that are just big time exposed to the banks right now. I'm waiting for the pull-back but if I buy I might just ride for a capital gain (even though I am 75% an income investor) - I'm incredibly exposed to bank shares.


----------



## stevier95

NAB shares fall after Santander denies interest

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/nab-...es-interest-20130122-2d3rd.html#ixzz2If8yrz84


----------



## burglar

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd be watching for the next high volume bar, above 10m shares traded, and examining it carefully, for direction on this stock. ...




Traded today: 10,282,484

Public Holiday on Monday, so let's see what Tuesday brings. 

Disclosure: Still holding, still squinting at the chart!!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

burglar said:


> Traded today: 10,282,484
> 
> Public Holiday on Monday, so let's see what Tuesday brings.
> 
> Disclosure: Still holding, still squinting at the chart!!




I must admit I choked on entering NAB above $27

I will watch this retracement, a very interesting stock technically.

I may hop on board if it bounces off previous resistance at $27.






gg


----------



## tinhat

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I choked on entering NAB above $27
> 
> I will watch this retracement, a very interesting stock technically.
> 
> I may hop on board if it bounces off previous resistance at $27.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg




I was chewing the fat with a mate about our respective SMSF portfolios this evening and checked to see that NAB is still yielding 6.6% before franking credits at today's close which is a good thing given that you could have bought it at today's price in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

tinhat said:


> I was chewing the fat with a mate about our respective SMSF portfolios this evening and checked to see that NAB is still yielding 6.6% before franking credits at today's close which is a good thing given that you could have bought it at today's price in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.




Excellent conversation tinhat, maybe Macquarie should get you and your mate on the payroll!

A long term chart of NAB over 10 years.

I've never had it in my SMSF, I stick to WBC and CBA, no good reason.

I did have NAB in a margin account in 2010-2011 and though it looks insignificant on this chart it was very profitable for me with divvies and capital gain.






I'd be very interested in your opinion on NAB from here on.

gg


----------



## tinhat

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Excellent conversation tinhat, maybe Macquarie should get you and your mate on the payroll!
> 
> A long term chart of NAB over 10 years.
> 
> I've never had it in my SMSF, I stick to WBC and CBA, no good reason.
> 
> I did have NAB in a margin account in 2010-2011 and though it looks insignificant on this chart it was very profitable for me with divvies and capital gain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'd be very interested in your opinion on NAB from here on.
> 
> gg




Are you really? I'm a pretty lousy tech analyst. It's on a run at the moment otherwise, as I said in another thread last week ANZ, TLS and NAB are all still buys if you are looking for dividends (before franking) of over 6%. As an income stock I think it is attractive. Given the flat earnings outlook for all the major banks in the medium term, I'm not sure how much further value is in the stock over the price it is at now. How high the price goes might be more a function of how much money flows into equities funds and how much money fund managers need to pour into market over the next few months and just how low a yield dividend seekers are willing to accept.

So in short - decent stock for income. Capital growth prospects not very exciting. Probably the most volatile share price of the big four. Could be good for short term tech trading. Fundamentals are sound but price appears to be at full value. Lowest PE of the big four but also lowest ROE. Dividend still a few months off - should go ex-div in June.

I ummed and ahhed about buying some NAB for yield when they were at $25. I sold my earlier holding of NAB at about $23 in 2010 and bought CBA and ANZ with the money about a year later.

For me, I'm interested in the banks for income but for trading I would find NAB to be a bit uninspiring.


----------



## tinhat

Correction. ANZ, CBA, TLS above should have been WBC, CBA, TLS.


----------



## burglar

tinhat said:


> ... but for trading I would find NAB to be a bit uninspiring ...




12% in six weeks, I was inspired to take it off the table!


----------



## tinhat

burglar said:


> 12% in six weeks, I was inspired to take it off the table!




Thanks for updating us - I know you went bullish on it a few weeks ago. So, will you keep it on your watch list and wait for another short term trading opportunity if it pulls back or do you think its had its main dash for now?


----------



## burglar

tinhat said:


> Thanks for updating us - I know you went bullish on it a few weeks ago. So, will you keep it on your watch list and wait for another short term trading opportunity if it pulls back or do you think its had its main dash for now?




Hi tinhat,

Short answer is I will keep them on my short list.

I remember why I bought them.

a.) To start a revenue (dividend) stream.

When I saw them climbing, climbing, (today especially) I thought it can't last. 
A Capital Gain of 12% after brokerage and after tax, in the hand, today!
That has got to be better than 3.6% in May/June.


b.) To counter my portfolio destroying habit .... gambling!

Oh well, back to square one.


----------



## burglar

tinhat said:


> ... do you think its had its main dash for now?




I don't have a clue if has or hasn't had its main dash!
Still awaiting outcome of UK Operations.
A turnaround or a sale could make all the difference.

I bet Mr. Market it wouldn't go through $28 today and I lost that bet, ... 

Somewhere, I read that the bull run will run out of steam.
Elsewhere, I read that it would take quite an effort to stop this bull run! 

So probably an error to sell so soon! 
Patience was never my strong suit.


----------



## stevier95

http://www.smh.com.au/business/earn...high-as-outlook-brightens-20130207-2dznu.html

Finally starting to look up.
At a 2 year high and fairly decent results.


----------



## ecnalb

To late to get on this one you guys think?

Its been on a watch list of mine for 3 weeks now and has risen 6% in that time.


----------



## skyQuake

Fair few rejections of the highs so far. Think this is the bank to sell if any.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

skyQuake said:


> Fair few rejections of the highs so far. Think this is the bank to sell if any.




My gut tells me you are correct, but the chart indicates little mood for selling atm.

It has gone up 17% in 1 month.

A small volume rejection of the high $29's on Friday leaves me wondering.







gg


----------



## stevier95

Broken the $30 barrier for the first time since late 2009.


----------



## ecnalb

Anyone going in with the CPS offer?


----------



## chops_a_must

In today.

It has been explained elsewhere that the financial index has been in a w4.

NAB and BEN have the best set ups from here. A break on good volume. Targeting 35 to 37, which lines up with resistance.

Cheers.


----------



## tinhat

chops_a_must said:


> In today.
> 
> It has been explained elsewhere that the financial index has been in a w4.




Where/when was this said and why wasn't I told about the meeting?



chops_a_must said:


> NAB and BEN have the best set ups from here. A break on good volume. Targeting 35 to 37, which lines up with resistance.




What resistance does 35 to 37 line up to on a chart?



chops_a_must said:


> Cheers.




A good evening to you Sir.


----------



## chops_a_must

tinhat said:


> Where/when was this said and why wasn't I told about the meeting?
> 
> 
> 
> What resistance does 35 to 37 line up to on a chart?
> 
> 
> 
> A good evening to you Sir.




1. I don't think I'm allowed to mention the name.

But: 
[video]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cBZEnLssgFw[/video]


2. You can see the resistance in that area from 06 through 08 in the below chart
	

		
			
		

		
	




3. And to you as well hep cat.


----------



## Poonam

NAB half yearly report out this week - Thursday.  The stock fell 20 cents or so today.  Any correlation at all?


----------



## tinhat

chops_a_must said:


> 1. I don't think I'm allowed to mention the name.
> 
> But:
> [video]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cBZEnLssgFw[/video]
> 
> 
> 2. You can see the resistance in that area from 06 through 08 in the below chart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 51913
> 
> 
> 3. And to you as well hep cat.




Not that I have any t/a expertise (quite the opposite) but I can't see any strong support/resistance at 37-38. It had a bit of a pause on the way up between 30-32 and I guess it will have to pause again at some stage.


----------



## Ann

tinhat said:


> Not that I have any t/a expertise (quite the opposite) but I can't see any strong support/resistance at 37-38. It had a bit of a pause on the way up between 30-32 and I guess it will have to pause again at some stage.




I can see it Tinhat but IMO it is a bit rubbery and am not surprised you found it hard to see. Let me show you with a bit of a close up of that time on the chart.


----------



## stevier95

NAB currently trading at a 52 week high.
Fair to say its leading the big 4 at the moment?


----------



## oldblue

stevier95 said:


> NAB currently trading at a 52 week high.
> Fair to say its leading the big 4 at the moment?




Indeed.

FWIW, Macquaries have it as their preferred bank exposure - at present!


----------



## stevier95

Interesting article in todays paper:



> Mr Healy said that in the past two to three years many businesses had lacked the confidence to invest because of the uncertain environment, and in the lead-up to the election many people had opted to sit on their hands.
> 
> Now, with a majority government in place, he said firms were revisiting expansion plans including merger and acquisition opportunities.




Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/b...-result-nab-20130924-2uc79.html#ixzz2fsh1vfAY


----------



## tinhat

oldblue said:


> Indeed.
> 
> FWIW, Macquaries have it as their preferred bank exposure - at present!




It is my preferred bank exposure too - it just seemed to have the most upside potential a few months ago. The SMSF sold out of CBA entirely and put it into NAB (much smaller exposure). Portfolio also has small holdings of ANZ and CBA as long term holdings.


----------



## Julia

tinhat said:


> It is my preferred bank exposure too - it just seemed to have the most upside potential a few months ago. The SMSF sold out of CBA entirely and put it into NAB (much smaller exposure).



I did similarly.  Also bought relatively small parcel of BOQ which is doing pretty well.


----------



## fleetz

Why did NAB stock get flogged today after such a positive final year report? Don't get it?


----------



## coolcup

fleetz said:


> Why did NAB stock get flogged today after such a positive final year report? Don't get it?




Result was weak underlying. Driven more by a reduction on doubtful debts. Net interest margin fell. UK not being sold quickly. Dividend not above expectations. Take your pick.


----------



## burglar

fleetz said:


> Why did NAB stock get flogged today after such a positive final year report? Don't get it?



You don't have to get it.
It is the net effect of a group of diverse people.
Some are rational, some not!
Some are emotional, some not!

Ask yourself what have you got riding on this.
Can you afford to be wrong?

"The trend is your friend until the bend at the end." anon.

Your mission should you choose to accept it:
Find out if this is truly the bend at the end or just a small kink in the middle?


----------



## burglar

coolcup said:


> ... Take your pick.





Hi coolcup,


Take your pick!


----------



## piggybank

burglar said:


> Hi coolcup,
> 
> 
> Take your pick!
> View attachment 55040




Hi Burglar,

Are you a gold prospector by any chance?


----------



## burglar

piggybank said:


> Hi Burglar,
> 
> Are you a gold prospector by any chance?




When I go to the barber, I look like a prospector!
But when I emerge I look like a million dollars!  :


----------



## tinhat

burglar said:


> Hi coolcup,
> 
> 
> Take your pick!
> View attachment 55040




This is a pick.




I bought my NAB shares in March and May this year. Pity I didn't wait until June. While capital growth would be nice, the grossed up yield of 8.5% on an av price of $30.50 is what I am after.


----------



## Whiskers

coolcup said:


> Result was weak underlying. Driven more by a reduction on doubtful debts. Net interest margin fell. UK not being sold quickly. Dividend not above expectations. Take your pick.




What does "reduction on doubtful debts" mean... tighter lending policy or has there been a heavy culling of doubtful debts?

I'm curious what the objective of their strategy of being the lowest variable rate mortgage for the last year is. Are they anticipating the market to rise and increase their variable rates faster... or not lower as much aside from the RBA as some expect in the next year or two, now that they have more mortgages locked in!


----------



## oldblue

> What does "reduction on doubtful debts" mean... tighter lending policy or has there been a heavy culling of doubtful debts?




Probably a combination of the above plus an improvement in the quality of the "book" - or at least a perception of improvement!


----------



## rimtas

Hi everyone, I am new to this forum but I have been trading about 8 years already in the European stock markets. As I relocated to AU recently my trading preferences also turned to a local market.  I using mostly a Wave Principle for analysis as I have a sound understanding how markets operate under it.  I apologize for my grammar in advance, thanks.

I already have NAB, BEN, SGP, WES, WOW, IEM, TLS, SUN in my portfolio and looking to buy some more blue chip  stocks that pay ~5% dividend and have an upward trending long term wave structure. 
Average size of position is no less than 10K aud.

NAB is already 10 months trending sideways and there is a strong probability that the correction bottom has been set a couple weeks ago at 32.24. Since then series of first and second waves is developing and I expect it to move strongly up in the coming week or so. 

If you take a look on the weekly chart it looks like the last sideways movement fits into paralel channells and there is one wave missing to complete a "five" from 19 Sept 2011 ortdox low of Intermediate Wave (B). The RSI under the graph is still into a correction mode and no Buy signal has been generated yet, but if an Impulse Wave 5 has started, a few more weekly bars up would generate one and price should start rising Impulsively towards 42-44 area in the comming months.




There is still a possibility that the larger size Triangle is developing, in this way RSI will stay under the line on weekly and stock will not rise above 35,50. But both ways short term trend is up and I personaly think it is worth bying at this stage. 
If you look at an hourly chart there apears to be a series of first and second waves developing, which means the stock is accelerating upwards and the "gap and go" move is ahead.


----------



## coolcup

Welcome rimtas and thank you for the detailed post and analysis. I am in agreement with you, I do believe NAB is well placed to outperform the other major banks in the medium term. It remains inexpensive on the valuation metrics I use whereas the other banks are what I would consider to be fair value to slightly expensive. Some discount to the other majors is justified due to the capital NAB has tied up in its underperforming UK division, but the current level of discount is too high, in my humble opinion. I too am long NAB.


----------



## Julia

coolcup said:


> I too am long NAB.



I, too.


----------



## rimtas

Recent Update...
Looks like NAB was unable to break upwards above $35,50  and the weekly RSI line tells that market is still in a Correction mode.  The Triangle scenario gains more probability at this stage unless NAB will break out of the Triangle brackets above $35,50. 

If the last wave down is developing, a $32,30 level should be a strong resistance and the weekly bar should not close below it.


----------



## rimtas

Still shy of 32.30 E Wave target, probably will climb a little and then drop  in a few weeks. I'll post a chart when/if a good entry scenario realizes.  
In a perfect world 32,30 is a buy with  a stop just below 32 where the entire Triangle would desintegrate and the bearish count would come into efect. 

Let's wait and see what more Wave E brings, it should subdivide into 3 waves, we have just 1 down from Wave D top so far... In a rear cases the Entire E Wave is  a Triangle, but NAB is already oversold on a weekly basis so this scenario has a low probability.


----------



## coolcup

The recent fall in bank stocks has in my view been driven primarily by offshore investment funds exiting large cap yield exposures as their performance gets hit by the falling Aussie dollar. NAB now appears good value based on my valuation and offers a grossed up forecast dividend yield in excess of 9%. There are more "easy" wins for NAB in the medium term when compared with the other banks - for example, exiting the UK and US are key milestones which may help drive a re-rate. In the meantime we can sit back and enjoy the yield.

Disclosure: I am long NAB.


----------



## Julia

Thanks, coolcup.  I see it similarly.   But I only have a relatively small amount invested at present.
If I were fully invested right now, I'd be out.
That is perhaps more a reflection of my conservative stance than any sort of prediction about what will happen from here.  Just rather too many disquieting factors at present.


----------



## Ian

Julia said:


> Thanks, coolcup.  I see it similarly.   But I only have a relatively small amount invested at present.
> If I were fully invested right now, I'd be out.
> That is perhaps more a reflection of my conservative stance than any sort of prediction about what will happen from here.  Just rather too many disquieting factors at present.




Julia, 
I tend to agree with Coolcup but I would be interested to hear where you feel investment would be more comfortably placed if you don't mind discussing it.
cheers


----------



## Julia

Ian, we'll have different views based on our circumstances.  My focus is on preservation of capital.  So if I'm at all fearful of eg GFC MK2 I will want to preserve most of my profits.  It worked well for me when the GFC occurred.

Some people  took the view "why sell?  you're still getting your dividends and franking credits."  OK, but if things get bad enough those dividends are not guaranteed either.  And if you needed that invested capital for anything, at the bottom you had 50% less of it than pre GFC.  I'm not up for that sort of risk.

A big difference between then and now is that the GFC was accompanied by a credit squeeze which forced the banks to offer pretty high interest rates eg 8%.

If one isn't paying tax then that's an acceptable enough place to park money while the market falls.
We're all very aware that now, about six years later, the market is still some distance from regaining its pre GFC level of about 6800.  Nonetheless, those who bought back in when an uptrend returned have done pretty well.

Interest rates now are unattractive, so there are fewer options.

I'm not sure if this answers your question.  Others will take a different view.





If you are not dependent on your capital generating an income to live on, then you're going to have a different focus from someone who has no other source of income than that generated from capital.


----------



## coolcup

Julia said:


> Just rather too many disquieting factors at present.




Hi Julia

Would you mind sharing some of these factors? Just to make sure I am not missing anything in my own thinking!!


----------



## VSntchr

Julia said:


> We're all very aware that now, about six years later, the market is still some distance from regaining its pre GFC level of about 6800.  Nonetheless, those who bought back in when an uptrend returned have done pretty well.




The chase for yield has caused many companies within the index to return large amounts of capital to shareholders through dividends and other means since the GFC...so I think that the Accumulation Index is a better projection of what has actually occurred since the plunge.




Agree with you that investors in different stages of their journey will have different preferences for the amount of equity market risk they are willing to accept. 

In my view it's my job to buy good businesses at less than I think they are worth. If I become unable to trust my ability in my attempts to analyse and value these businesses - then I allocate my equity exposure to a low cost index fund which will remain invested at all times. If I cannot value single businesses, I find it hard to believe that I can time the direction of the market in order to avoid the corrections and cash in on the big runs...

Funnily enough, I'd say that quite a few good businesses would have been qualifying for sells based on exceeding valuations in the period leading up to the GFC, where exuberance of other market participants caused you to take your risk off the table. So perhaps the outcome is largely the same, just the methodology is somewhat different.

Of course this is just my view...don't expect everyone to agree with me.


----------



## coolcup

VSntchr said:


> Funnily enough, I'd say that quite a few good businesses would have been qualifying for sells based on exceeding valuations in the period leading up to the GFC




I think probably a year or so before the GFC hit, share prices were well above sensible fundamental valuations. While an investor might have been disciplined and sold at that point, it takes a lot of discipline and self-confidence to continue to believe / trust in your own fundamental valuation after you have sold and when the market continues to run for a year or more. Your valuation says the market is getting even more over-priced but the herd is saying "look at the returns you are missing out on". It takes a lot of discipline and patience.


----------



## sasch

Julia said:


> Ian, we'll have different views based on our circumstances.  My focus is on preservation of capital.  So if I'm at all fearful of eg GFC MK2 I will want to preserve most of my profits.  It worked well for me when the GFC occurred.
> 
> Some people  took the view "why sell?  you're still getting your dividends and franking credits."  OK, but if things get bad enough those dividends are not guaranteed either.  And if you needed that invested capital for anything, at the bottom you had 50% less of it than pre GFC.  I'm not up for that sort of risk.
> 
> A big difference between then and now is that the GFC was accompanied by a credit squeeze which forced the banks to offer pretty high interest rates eg 8%.
> 
> If one isn't paying tax then that's an acceptable enough place to park money while the market falls....




Julia, 
Slightly off topic - While Australian banks came off relatively unscathed during the GFC, a possible 'GFC MK2' scenario could see a different outcome, considering their current high exposure to household debt. Would you weigh up the risk of a potential bank collapse versus parking your money in stocks?


----------



## herzy

coolcup said:


> I think probably a year or so before the GFC hit, share prices were well above sensible fundamental valuations. While an investor might have been disciplined and sold at that point, it takes a lot of discipline and self-confidence to continue to believe / trust in your own fundamental valuation after you have sold and when the market continues to run for a year or more. Your valuation says the market is getting even more over-priced but the herd is saying "look at the returns you are missing out on". It takes a lot of discipline and patience.




Excellent post. Selling is something I still struggle with. I have little confidence in my ability to sell in what I think is a bull market (like now... ). But then again, I guess the learning never stops...


----------



## Julia

sasch said:


> Julia,
> Slightly off topic - While Australian banks came off relatively unscathed during the GFC, a possible 'GFC MK2' scenario could see a different outcome, considering their current high exposure to household debt. Would you weigh up the risk of a potential bank collapse versus parking your money in stocks?



sasch, I agree that a different outcome could occur if we were to experience Mk2.  There is, however, a greater awareness of this possibility.   Under almost any circumstances, I wouldn't see the government allowing any major bank to fail.  The resulting chaos would have massive repercussions throughout the whole economy.



coolcup said:


> Hi Julia
> 
> Would you mind sharing some of these factors? Just to make sure I am not missing anything in my own thinking!!



Coolcup, we're rather getting off track from the NAB thread, and I'd prefer not to list what makes me concerned.
I might be quite wrong.   But just thinking about the global situation what do you see?  Is it positive?   
How will you interpret the eventual cessation of QE and rising interest rates in the US?   What effect will that have on Australia?  What will be the effect of diminishing commodity prices?  Of China's growth rate etc?  The falling $A dollar with consequent withdrawal of foreign investment?

Even at home we have a complex political landscape, minimal confidence in government and society in general, terror becoming a priority.  It's hardly a picture to build confidence.

Probably, however, I'm generally pessimistic so as to have always a plan for the worst that could happen.



VSntchr said:


> Agree with you that investors in different stages of their journey will have different preferences for the amount of equity market risk they are willing to accept.
> 
> In my view it's my job to buy good businesses at less than I think they are worth. If I become unable to trust my ability in my attempts to analyse and value these businesses - then I allocate my equity exposure to a low cost index fund which will remain invested at all times. If I cannot value single businesses, I find it hard to believe that I can time the direction of the market in order to avoid the corrections and cash in on the big runs...



OK, understood.   This is where we have a divergence.  I have no interest in "analysis and value" of any business.  I'm only interested in what price market sentiment places on a stock.  Just like property:   any stock/property is worth what someone is prepared to pay for it.

I acknowledge that this is anathema to fundamental/value investors.

But I'll continue to do what works for me as you will do what works for you.   

As said earlier, I have fairly small proportion of funds in the market, chosen for grossed up yield, top 100, bought when at call rates fell to their present point.
The intention when buying was to hold throughout any volatility, given essential bulk of capital is not threatened, but old habits die hard and I'm finding it quite difficult to continue to accept the rationale for such a p/f as the market falls. 



> Funnily enough, I'd say that quite a few good businesses would have been qualifying for sells based on exceeding valuations in the period leading up to the GFC, where exuberance of other market participants caused you to take your risk off the table. So perhaps the outcome is largely the same, just the methodology is somewhat different.



Sure.  I'm reminded of a great post many years ago by Bunyip where he described price action/trend following as simply seeing what all the value/fundamental investors have already put the analysis into.
You might find it interesting.  If you look up Bunyip's profile, it would be probably in the first ten of his posts following his joining the forum.



coolcup said:


> I think probably a year or so before the GFC hit, share prices were well above sensible fundamental valuations. While an investor might have been disciplined and sold at that point, it takes a lot of discipline and self-confidence to continue to believe / trust in your own fundamental valuation after you have sold and when the market continues to run for a year or more. Your valuation says the market is getting even more over-priced but the herd is saying "look at the returns you are missing out on". It takes a lot of discipline and patience.



Hence the preference by some of us to just work on price action/trend.


----------



## coolcup

Julia said:


> Coolcup, we're rather getting off track from the NAB thread, and I'd prefer not to list what makes me concerned.
> I might be quite wrong.   But just thinking about the global situation what do you see?  Is it positive?
> How will you interpret the eventual cessation of QE and rising interest rates in the US?   What effect will that have on Australia?  What will be the effect of diminishing commodity prices?  Of China's growth rate etc?  The falling $A dollar with consequent withdrawal of foreign investment?
> 
> Even at home we have a complex political landscape, minimal confidence in government and society in general, terror becoming a priority.  It's hardly a picture to build confidence.
> 
> Probably, however, I'm generally pessimistic so as to have always a plan for the worst that could happen.




Agree it is a bit off topic but thanks nonetheless! The points you raise are valid but the thing I have been wrestling with is that none of them (aside from perhaps the terrorist one) are new and have been around for several months if not a year or so:

(a) Cessation of QE and rising interest rates in the US has been flagged and spoken about at length. Markets have had plenty of time to consider and price this
(b) Diminishing commodity prices - again has been happening for a while now as supply outstrips demand
(c) Falling A$ - this was meant to be the godsend the RBA has been praying for. Again, has been spoken about for a while.

In my head I am trying to work out if anything are any truly new themes at play or if it is different takes on the same major issues the equity market has been grappling with for some time. 

Anyway, I understand where you are coming from. There is a lot of uncertainty...


----------



## herzy

Falling even further and with a chunky dividend coming up in 45 days it's looking more tempting.


----------



## pinkboy

herzy said:


> Falling even further and with a chunky dividend coming up in 45 days it's looking more tempting.




Yes, buying NAB along with ANZ and WBC at the moment should see around 3% yield for the single dividend alone in the coming couple months.

pinkboy


----------



## coolcup

herzy said:


> Falling even further and with a chunky dividend coming up in 45 days it's looking more tempting.




3 dividends in 14 months... very tempting


----------



## sptrawler

herzy said:


> Falling even further and with a chunky dividend coming up in 45 days it's looking more tempting.




I'm with you on this.


----------



## rimtas

Updating my thoughts about recent development in this stock.

I think This Is It. There is no better risk reward ratio that current situation. If NAB is in A Triangle formation, it is over at todays close at 32.13.

The E waves can briefly cross C wave's bottom in a pannic, but wave A low is formidable for this pattern to be in effect.  So basicaly a stop should be below 31.90, just a bit more than 20c risk.
 I'll be conservative here-minimum target is previous high of 37.4, so basicaly about ~$6 from here, but usually thrusts from a triangle produces much more.
 Tomorrow will tell, I am in, stop order is placed.


----------



## Porper

rimtas said:


> Updating my thoughts about recent development in this stock.
> 
> I think This Is It. There is no better risk reward ratio that current situation. If NAB is in A Triangle formation, it is over at todays close at 32.13.
> 
> The E waves can briefly cross C wave's bottom in a pannic, but wave A low is formidable for this pattern to be in effect.  So basicaly a stop should be below 31.90, just a bit more than 20c risk.
> I'll be conservative here-minimum target is previous high of 37.4, so basicaly about ~$6 from here, but usually thrusts from a triangle produces much more.
> Tomorrow will tell, I am in, stop order is placed.
> 
> View attachment 59601




At best it can morph into an descending triangle meaning $31.90 can't be breached. Wave E cannot break through wave C ever as far as I am concerned. Price must coil in a symmetrical triangle. Also, the final leg down doesn't look like a corrective pattern. In fact it looks impulsive which is a warning sign of further weakness to come...possibly following a bounce as it looks oversold short term. Just my personal thoughts.


----------



## herzy

I entered today at 32.17 - will be happy to hold for the medium term.


----------



## rimtas

Hi Porper, let me reply to your post.



Porper said:


> At best it can morph into an descending triangle meaning $31.90 can't be breached .




Yes, I agree with you, it is still a possibility that only Wave C has bottomed. Until Wave B highs are not breached this scenario ir highly probable.



Porper said:


> Wave E cannot break through wave C ever as far as I am concerned




Actually it can. As wave E is a fifth wave, it can be extended and in all sorts of triangular structures(as Leading , Ending Diagonals and all sorts of Triangles) extended waves creates a "throwover".  Wave Principle explains that this occurs more often than not, and  one must expect this to happen. 



Porper said:


> Price must coil in a symmetrical triangle.



 Not necessarily. Triangles can morph into so many shapes that you will not have so many fingers on your arms and legs to count them. 



Porper said:


> Also, the final leg down doesn't look like a corrective pattern



 As long as it consists of 3 waves, doesn't mater how it looks. Fifth waves in Triangles can be extremely volatile as they are ending waves-psychology in an ending wave can be extreme also, creating an "impulsive like " look.

Thank you for a constructive discussion. Cheers mate


----------



## Porper

rimtas said:


> Hi Porper, let me reply to your post.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, I agree with you, it is still a possibility that only Wave C has bottomed. Until Wave B highs are not breached this scenario ir highly probable.
> 
> 
> 
> Actually it can. As wave E is a fifth wave, it can be extended and in all sorts of triangular structures(as Leading , Ending Diagonals and all sorts of Triangles) extended waves creates a "throwover".  Wave Principle explains that this occurs more often than not, and  one must expect this to happen.
> 
> Not necessarily. Triangles can morph into so many shapes that you will not have so many fingers on your arms and legs to count them.
> 
> As long as it consists of 3 waves, doesn't mater how it looks. Fifth waves in Triangles can be extremely volatile as they are ending waves-psychology in an ending wave can be extreme also, creating an "impulsive like " look.
> 
> Thank you for a constructive discussion. Cheers mate




Think we'll have to disagree on some of those rules and guidelines. The problem to me is that if we bend the rules and ignore the guidelines then the Wave Theory is of little use. Almost any pattern, impulsive or corrective can be made to "Fit" almost anywhere. I suppose it boils down to who you follow. Elliott himself , Prechter or somebody like Miner who uses The Wave Principle in its most simple form.


----------



## rimtas

No, I am not trying to bend anything o disregard rules. Rules are rules, thats how markets move, ignore rules=ignore market behaviour. Elliot and Prechter did a good job in summarising guidelines, and I believe that more new discovered guidelines to be added in the future .
 But rules are just a few, we can't ignore them, because it directly lead to losses. Market observation is a key to understanding the Wave Principle.


----------



## rimtas

Hey Porper, do you agree with this ASX count? 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=842859&viewfull=1#post842859


----------



## rimtas

Let's see what is going on after the bottom was set up. This is the only stock that I am holding at the moment so I will be updating charts until I get stoped out or take profit.

NAB failed to form a clear 5 wave move up which could added more confidence, but instead it moved in threes and formed an expanding looking Leading Diagonal, which could also be a motive wave.

 Expanding Leading Diagonals after a sizeable correction usually leads to a sharp thrust higher in a third wave, but as they have no any Impulsive subdivisions, they can be labelled as a simple WXY correction if the bottom falls out.
To protect a capital stop is just after a bottom, which at this stage can not be moved higher, because wave (ii) can retrace up to 99% down.

Price is still in a  descending channel, but it should brake higher in the coming sessions if the larger size count is correct.


----------



## PennD

rimtas said:


> Let's see what is going on after the bottom was set up. This is the only stock that I am holding at the moment so I will be updating charts until I get stoped out or take profit.
> 
> NAB failed to form a clear 5 wave move up which could added more confidence, but instead it moved in threes and formed an expanding looking Leading Diagonal, which could also be a motive wave.
> 
> Expanding Leading Diagonals after a sizeable correction usually leads to a sharp thrust higher in a third wave, but as they have no any Impulsive subdivisions, they can be labelled as a simple WXY correction if the bottom falls out.
> To protect a capital stop is just after a bottom, which at this stage can not be moved higher, because wave (ii) can retrace up to 99% down.
> 
> Price is still in a  descending channel, but it should brake higher in the coming sessions if the larger size count is correct.
> 
> View attachment 59643




Hi Rimtas, 

Are you still expecting this stock to break higher? It seems to be going sideways.

Cheers

Penn


----------



## rimtas

Hi Penn, yes, I am looking for NAB to break higher later in the week. 

As it is already  have broken out of the bearish channel, it is considered to be bullish. In the very near term I expect it to touch that channel in a 32.5 range, where I am looking to increase my position.
Only if it _closes_ inside a channel again, it will immediately shift the odds towards a bearish case. Other big banks also have quite a strong structures for a rebound that could last weeks/months(maybe till Christmas).

My only concern is that a mining sector is poised for a further crash which could impact the broader indices to go down and this could drag the banks lower also. It is a risky call, but the pace of sliding down the hill is slowing and for the market to maintain a healthy downtrend it needs to breathe, which means a correction up is imminent very soon. When indices will catch up on a positive note, banks will shoot up strongly and better to be early than late. 
Cheers,


----------



## rimtas

Today NAB made an important new low which proved my thoughts about Intermediate size Triangle were wrong.
My stop  was still not triggered(at 31.80) and today I just moved it  bit higher to breakeven level at 32,17, so if it rises at open I leave as it is because other banks made no new lows and this is good especially for ANZ wave structure to stay bullish.

From there NAB could move either way but it already made me  to look for exit as my profit loss/ratio (at least 1:20) is off the table.  
One bullish  variant I present at a chart below, but with All Ords moving strongly towards 4500 target I added an Alternative very bearish case under blue line. 
On a Daily momentum is already showing signs of improvement, but as I do not have a clue how much it could rise and from where,I am not going to  participate in this trade anymore until the wave structure present me with another good entry setup offering very low risk and high reward ratio. 

Unfortunately that is how trading works and discipline is the key to success. I was hoping to Trade a  thrust from a Triangle, market proved that it is not what I think and I will exit this trade as soon as possible.

Keep your stops tight or otherwise market will rip you off naked one day, that is a proven fact.
Cheers


----------



## PennD

It was looking weak a few days ago to me and thats why i asked if your still in. 
Where is the wave 2 bounce in the asx i wonder? Maybe we had it already and 3 is about to come?
Cheers


----------



## Porper

Porper said:


> . Also, the final leg down doesn't look like a corrective pattern. In fact it looks impulsive which is a warning sign of further weakness to come




Banks in general have made impulsive movements down. To me this suggests further weakness but remember this could offer an excellent buying opportunity shortly. Great dividend for NAB will be even harder to resist if this retracement continues.


----------



## rimtas

Porper said:


> Banks in general have made impulsive movements down..



 Other banks -yes, but not NAB. 

NAB formed a top a year ago and the structure from that top is very debatable. It can be a correction, o just a series of first and second waves down at Intermediate degree.  It is not tradable at this stage on a long side-support is broken, and prices can collapse further. 

I am sceptical about dividends-to receive your principal back you must hold a stock for many years and if the market falls you loose everything. Dividends matter only if you intend not to sell a stock ever and hold it till you die. Then when to buy doesn't matter at all. You can buy now, you can buy tomorrow or a year latter-as long as it pays divs it's ok for this strategy. 
But trading is a different thing and whether company pays div or not it plays little role, only psychological.


----------



## rimtas

Following recent development and assuming that NAB is tracing out and Ending Diagonal as wave C, current subdivisions suggests that wave (iii) bottom is in and stock should go higher in wave (iv), which ideally could reach an area of 34 in order to maintain the converging  shape of the wave C pattern. 

The main prospect is that it should rise in three waves in order this count to be correct, otherwise the situation will get more bullish. 
The rise also should ideally take up to 6-8 weeks, anything much less than that will raise a question about the validity of the pattern.


----------



## rimtas

Good news for anyone who is holding NAB-the stock just sported five waves up from the bottom. Short term there should be a set back and then rally to new highs will follow. Enjoy.
I hold NAB, small position, until ALL Ords are in a positive wave, banks will rally. I expect ANZ, BOQ, NAB to reach new highs. Time is not a subject for forecast, I judge waves a s they unfold.\


----------



## rimtas

Can't get enough of this stock...

After toping , as expected, NAB trusted to new highs, but  sported a short C wave instead of anticipated Wave 3 which could have ended the year long correction.   After this development, five wave decline followed.  Because NAB is moving in threes on a Daily Chart, I expect it to decline even further before another good trading opportunity arises.






In my previous posts You can notice that I've been following a Flat correction on Daily  when Triangle scenario failed. 
 When correction starts, it has more than 10  scenarios what way it could develop, but after there are enough waves and pattern is near completion, alternate scenarios are disappearing one after another, leaving probabilities higher. 

I've been tracking Wave (C) as an Ending Diagonal, because market moves in threes. What changed recently is that the pattern appears to sport a form on an Expanding Diagonal instead of Contracting.

So after another wave down, I expect a good entry point somewhere  in $31 area, at the lower trend line of Wave C. If this year-long correction is retracing a previous five wave move, a fib 38,2% is at $31,2.
Red labels  on a chart present with top alternate scenario, which I will discus only if it materializes, for this  next week NAB will make a bottom and finally start a big rally. But this scenario does not adhere to guidelines well in shorter time frames, so probabilities are low.







I add ANZ chart for comparison how Expanding Diagonal C wave looks. In ANZ case the whole pattern was 5-3-5. and NAB  looks more a sideways movement  taking a form of 3-3-5.


----------



## rimtas

NAB fell short of lower pattern line, but wave v(circled) declined to new lows, confirming a validity of a pattern that I was tracking.  It also reached a 38,2% retracement that I discussed in above post, and reversed from there.
 Other banks did not declined to new lows(related to end of Sept) as they has different patterns, most of them in Triangle formation and CBA structure is unclear at this moment, but definitely bullish as well.


The price action in NAB with a complete wave structure at Intermediate degree suggests that new Impulsive advance to new highs is underway. The weekly chart with RSI confirms that the last wave down was weaker, creating a divergence, which is a classic sign that sideways correction is close to the end.

I am looking for market to rise above 35,20(Oct end top). The breakout above this level will eliminate most bearish scenarios left and will be a good time to add to position.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

yes be one to watch, i bought a few more just recently, but until the current boss really gets in and sorts out the UK issues its going to be a sketchy ride in my opinion, 

cameron clyne was going to be the saviour, now gone, next bloke getting into it and pretty sure a lot of shareholders would 'maybe' benefit from just getting the whole UK mess out of way quick smart, accept the damage and move on


----------



## sptrawler

Toyota Lexcen said:


> yes be one to watch, i bought a few more just recently, but until the current boss really gets in and sorts out the UK issues its going to be a sketchy ride in my opinion,
> 
> cameron clyne was going to be the saviour, now gone, next bloke getting into it and pretty sure a lot of shareholders would 'maybe' benefit from just getting the whole UK mess out of way quick smart, accept the damage and move on




I don't think the UK banks, are as big a problem, as the commentators make out.
U.K dynamics are completely different to ours, I'm happy holding and accumulating.
But I'm often wrong.


----------



## rimtas

NAB made an extremely clear five waves up from the bottom, which could indicate that the new uptrend has started.  Based on this now it should correct down with second wave, most likely to the previous iv wave area of ~33, but theoretically second waves can retrace all the way back to the bottom.
  I am looking to buy into the correction, as this could be the last chance to get in at those prices. 







What is more interesting, that if you check all major banks and for example RIO,  they all have similar structures. All Ords also advanced in five waves from the bottom, so I think after some sort of pullback  that could take week or two, a major rally is coming earlier next year.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit to be conflicted on NAB.

They may gain 50%. No worries.

Or they may tank to the low $20's

Let us wait and see.

They will definitely not go sideways.

gg


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Think it will trade sideways for quite a while unti UK mess sorted out, next run up would be a good time to exit

They wrote down 600 or 700mil i think on UK operations related to bad insurance or something, but have also declared that it is still an unknown situation! The new boss may get a honeymoon period for 12-18mths

Margins have been reduced also in home lending here in Aus to remain competitive, wait and see i guess


----------



## Bill M

rimtas said:


> Good news for anyone who is holding NAB-the stock just sported five waves up from the bottom. *Short term there should be a set back and then rally to new highs will follow*. Enjoy.
> 
> View attachment 59972




I thought about this call you made a few Months ago, seems like it's right.

Is that the recent high of $37 or the one at $44 just before the GFC you were talking about?

Either way, I'm a happy camper, been holding them for years with great dividends along the way too.


----------



## rimtas

When trying to predict where it can go one must look to the big picture, but from the data I have I can't draw a clear picture which could tell me NAB position in a long term trend. 
The only recognizable pattern ( in the chart below ) is a Triangle, because all waves within that structure are "threes", and only from the apex in June 2012 NAB started to climb Impulsively, so that low I will use as an Ortodox bottom for NAB, not 2009 low.  This count perfectly aligns itself with the overal All Ords trend(which is at the precipe of a multiyear advance to new ATH), and with other big4 as well.

So longer  term (maybe next 5+ years), NAB could double in price, but this count is highly speculative.






In a shorter time frames, NAB is gaining good momentum, already broke two previous highs and is in it's maximum momentum third wave.  Plenty of technical buy signals here in every degree of trend, even weekly. Expect it to reach new highs above 37 in the weeks to come, and next major correction should start closer to $40 mark, where $37 would be used as support from above and everybody will realize here that year long sideways  correction is over.


----------



## Tooth Faerie

As a newbie, I took an uneducated punt, with a small position at $32.40 because I was attracted to the dividend yield.

Very happy so far.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Quaterly update out today, 6% improvement from previous, could be a bit of buying with yield still around 5-5.1%, always on edge with NAB just dont trust them

Rimtas helping us on this one


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Good work rimtas on NAB, its going well


----------



## Tooth Faerie

So...capital raising, huh?

Share price will take a hit? What do you all think?

What was the consequences of previous capital raisings?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

http://www.theage.com.au/business/c...-finally-clear-the-decks-20150507-ggw61w.html

NAB may finally be out of the UK, from what i can understand is existing shareholders will get shares in the de-merger company?(could be wrong here)

but yes Nab is being diluted, it may find a price somewhere between offer and last market trade, if market sentiment is high on the day it may be okay

for many years this has been an issue and the recent run up to highs of $39.50ish was perhaps many believing the end was close with Thorburn really looking to fix it


----------



## oldblue

The profit result was good; the capital raising accelerates the long-awaited pullback from the UK. Encouraging, all things considered and  I wouldn't be surprised if the issue is well supported and the hit to the shareprice quite modest.


----------



## Klogg

oldblue said:


> The profit result was good; the capital raising accelerates the long-awaited pullback from the UK. Encouraging, all things considered and  I wouldn't be surprised if the issue is well supported and the hit to the shareprice quite modest.




I would think the capital raising is APRA working silently, getting the banks to raise capital. 
They've had an impact on the investor loan book growth, and it's likely they're working on more than one metric.


----------



## Muschu

oldblue said:


> The profit result was good; the capital raising accelerates the long-awaited pullback from the UK. Encouraging, all things considered and  I wouldn't be surprised if the issue is well supported and the hit to the shareprice quite modest.




SP seems OK at the moment....

As a semi-retiree I am wondering about the merits of taking up the entitlement offer and would welcome thoughts of others in retirement mode.

Regards

Rick


----------



## coolcup

Muschu said:


> SP seems OK at the moment....
> 
> As a semi-retiree I am wondering about the merits of taking up the entitlement offer and would welcome thoughts of others in retirement mode.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Rick




I'm not in retirement mode but would make the following points for consideration:

1. The fact the stock is trading above the TERP by 5% indicates the market likes the deal and thinks it is overall accretive to shareholder long term value

2. The issue is renounceable, so even if you don't participate, you will get some value for the rights (assuming the trading price stays well above the $28.50 issue price)

I personally will be participating as my fair value estimate for NAB is well above the issue price for the rights.

Good luck!


----------



## Muschu

coolcup said:


> I'm not in retirement mode but would make the following points for consideration:
> 
> 1. The fact the stock is trading above the TERP by 5% indicates the market likes the deal and thinks it is overall accretive to shareholder long term value
> 
> 2. The issue is renounceable, so even if you don't participate, you will get some value for the rights (assuming the trading price stays well above the $28.50 issue price)
> 
> I personally will be participating as my fair value estimate for NAB is well above the issue price for the rights.
> 
> Good luck!





Comment greatly appreciated.  Many thanks.  I can't see any good reason, especially in retirement mode, not to participate.

However alternate views are also welcome.


----------



## qldfrog

Muschu said:


> I can't see any good reason, especially in retirement mode, not to participate.
> 
> However alternate views are also welcome.



one would be that you are going to be exposed during that time: you buy the shares at a price, you can not sell them if they collapse until you take ownership.
it is a good reason risk management wise; an other would be:
why would you be exposed in any way to aussie banks (I do not touch them with a pole) but if you have NAB already, you made your choice on this one already ;-)


----------



## oldblue

It's a very modest number of shares for most private investors' portfolios - 2 for 25 held - so the additional exposure isn't great and downside can be protected by selling from the head shares, if necessary. I've held NAB since the shareprice was sub $10 so I'll be adding a few more. A different matter for traders, of course!


----------



## Muschu

oldblue said:


> It's a very modest number of shares for most private investors' portfolios - 2 for 25 held - so the additional exposure isn't great and downside can be protected by selling from the head shares, if necessary. I've held NAB since the shareprice was sub $10 so I'll be adding a few more. A different matter for traders, of course!




Yes I am not talking of a massive number.

As for not touching the banks:  I doubt people who have held them these past six years are regretful.

Thanks for the thoughts.


----------



## qldfrog

Muschu said:


> Yes I am not talking of a massive number.
> 
> As for not touching the banks:  I doubt people who have held them these past six years are regretful.
> 
> Thanks for the thoughts.



situation 6 y ago was not the same as in the last year/ year and a half in term of leverage and exposure to the inflated local real estate;
I even have a trading buy pending on a bank if I can get it at the price I want, but trading not investing


----------



## Muschu

qldfrog said:


> situation 6 y ago was not the same as in the last year/ year and a half in term of leverage and exposure to the inflated local real estate;
> I even have a trading buy pending on a bank if I can get it at the price I want, but trading not investing




I appreciate that situations change.

Your other earlier comment was:

_"why would you be exposed in any way to aussie banks (I do not touch them with a pole)"_

The _"in any way"_ seems contradictory to today's comment.

My point was [again] that if you'd bought a major bank in 2008-9 there is really no reason to be unhappy.


----------



## qldfrog

Muschu said:


> I appreciate that situations change.
> 
> My point was [again] that if you'd bought a major bank in 2008-9 there is really no reason to be unhappy.



Sure but past is not representative of present: would you play your current bank portfolio value on the casino tomorrow?
I doubt... so you must have some risk mitigation/control in place if the banks price collapses, and in that case whatever value you will get from the capital raising is at risk during a short period;
One mitigation is reducing the existing portfolio by whatever extra issues you will get; you lock your gains and at least do not increase your exposure in $ terms;
From past experience (with I admit much smaller companies), a good move and something which is now a strategy for me in that case.
Risk is low anyway, and in 2 months there is a very high probability you will be able to say" Told you so" ;


----------



## dyna

Looks like the insto's didn't muck around taking up their full entitlement in the bookbild.I guess that whopping discount to the MP swayed a few minds.Long-term bank stock holders are pretty nervous about ...well,just about everything,including the bond and fixed interest markets.Who really knows where all this..(risk) will lead us?
 I'll take up the offer and ..um ...just go on hoping for the best.


----------



## SmokeyGhost

Well, for me it is not much of an issue as my holdings in NAB are not in my SMSF.  So, I'll just take up the rights and let the capital do its work as intended.  Price will go up, it'll go down.  Dividends will go up, go down, remain steady.  Why worry about it?


----------



## rimtas

This is a specific forecast for NAB following the most recent development. Based on the Wave structure discussed earlier here 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1093&p=859000&viewfull=1#post859000
NAB has reached a bottom and is ready for a breathtaking advance to new highs surpasing not only April 2015 peak  of $39,  but 2007 highs of $44 as well. The move should be even more powerful than the recent decline, catching up everyone by a big surprise.  

I expect wave i (circled) should temporarily stop near 2007 highs producing a small few months lasting correction as wave ii (circled, not shown)and then the sky is the limit. 
Using Fibonacci relationships I can project Intermediate Wave (3) could end at ~$65, where it will be 1,618 times of Wave (1). To reach this target will probably take a couple of years, depending what size of smaller degree corrections will be underway.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rimtas said:


> This is a specific forecast for NAB following the most recent development. Based on the Wave structure discussed earlier here
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1093&p=859000&viewfull=1#post859000
> NAB has reached a bottom and is ready for a breathtaking advance to new highs surpasing not only April 2015 peak  of $39,  but 2007 highs of $44 as well. The move should be even more powerful than the recent decline, catching up everyone by a big surprise.
> 
> I expect wave i (circled) should temporarily stop near 2007 highs producing a small few months lasting correction as wave ii (circled, not shown)and then the sky is the limit.
> Using Fibonacci relationships I can project Intermediate Wave (3) could end at ~$65, where it will be 1,618 times of Wave (1). To reach this target will probably take a couple of years, depending what size of smaller degree corrections will be underway.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 62758




I would agree with your charting analysis. 

However, from a fundamental view, take yourself in to a Board Meeting as a Director.

They are flying by the seats of their pants. 

Muppets all of them.

NAB would be a good takeover target when the 4 Pillars is removed, and that I feel is what aligns with the charts. 

gg


----------



## Porper

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would agree with your charting analysis.
> 
> However, from a fundamental view, take yourself in to a Board Meeting as a Director.
> 
> They are flying by the seats of their pants.
> 
> Muppets all of them.
> 
> NAB would be a good takeover target when the 4 Pillars is removed, and that I feel is what aligns with the charts.
> 
> gg




We all have our own views but the a-b-c correction rimtas has in place isn't conventional Elliott Wave. Not sure what variant he is using as I can't see his posts. That is an impulsive movement down with the current rally being a bounce only. All the banks are in a position to trade sideways over the next few years within a larger degree wave-4 i.m.o.


----------



## Triathlete

Hi All,
         I will throw my 2 cents in as well. Looking at the *Monthly chart first *I come up with this conclusion.

ABC Pattern concluded 13/3/2009 @$15.63

Wave 1....  13/03/2009   @ $15.63   till   16/10/2009   @ $31.91

Wave 2....  16/10/2009   @ $31.91   till   12/08/2011   @ $19.36

Wave 3....   12/08/2011  @ $19.36   still in progress has reached $39.15 which is almost 125% of wave 1,not yet sure if this wave has completed waiting on further confirmation.

If it has not completed then the likely target is 161.8% @ $45.71  
and 261.8% @ $62.03 

need to keep on the look out for the confirmation and reversal that a wave 4 is starting as the possibility is there since we have already reached the 100% level of a wave 3 which is the minimum requirement for a wave 3.


Cheers all


----------



## rimtas

Hi Thriatlete,
I know what you mean. At first I thought that the rise of 2009 was also a first wave, because CBA and ANZ has a perfect "fives". But the feeling that I am forcing the three waave rise into five just based on other banks had never let me to relax. 
And the fact that NAB is the only bank below 2007 top (from big4), just adds more evidence that the entire sideways move from 2007 to 2012 looks best as Triangle-the shape, the internal subdivisions consisting of "threes", and the followed five wave rise advance from ortodox bottom in 2012... Labeling an advance from 2012 till now as a third wave just doesn't kick that feeling of a third wave, which is "a wonder to behold". It looks tired.

So I am sticking that it was a first wave, and the third is just begining. It is a simpliest way to apply EW by not forcing some three wave rises into five. I am starting to think about the same scenario in WBC but definately not CBA and ANZ. This doesn't mean they can't rise, just under different counts.

(Note that those first and second waves are fractals in NAB)







And if banks rally, All Ords should too. I am still working on XAO structure from 2009 which is real tough to guess at this stage. The only way to make conclusion on this is through the many different stocks and other Asian Indices by getting a big picture of what is going on. I will get there soon, such dedicated elliotician as me is hard to beat by hiding something from my Eyes.

I am new to Australian market, just moved here few years ago. Before my life was in US and European markets which I know very well.  New market for me means everything from zero, especially socionomic situation in Australia. Due to this reason I can not make comments about fundamental aspects of Australian economy which confirms or denies my EW counts, but one thing I noticed immediately when getting there is a prolonged bearishness not only among retail investors, but from the entire investment and social community including analysts, comentators, fund managers, politicians and so on-the flip side of the situation in US, where a historically record optimism levels are dominated in all aspects of markets and economy.

One most recent interesting public statement was made by Motley Fool Australia, which as per my understanding is a very popular widely readed newsletter services in Austarlia. When the banks crashed, they wrote "shares are expensive and we therefore are set to a share market crash". Though they are mostly bullish long term,( this is probably mostly due to the nature of how they earn money by issuing a buy recomendations), but the short term bearish sentiment which is an outcome of the most recent bank crash captures nicely that the negative sentiment is widespread, which is bullish. 
 I can be wrong, but The Picture suggests me that markets are climbing the Wall Of Worry. 
I'll get more later on this and other issues in "EW and XAO" thread.

 I hold NAB , bought in last Thursday.
Short term subdivisions are three wave rise which can be considered as a series of first and second waves or it just shoot higher from here advancing in a third wave.
The most  recent bottom of ~33 should be as a stone for my forecast to be in effect.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rimtas said:


> Hi Thriatlete,
> I know what you mean. At first I thought that the rise of 2009 was also a first wave, because CBA and ANZ has a perfect "fives". But the feeling that I am forcing the three waave rise into five just based on other banks had never let me to relax.
> And the fact that NAB is the only bank below 2007 top (from big4), just adds more evidence that the entire sideways move from 2007 to 2012 looks best as Triangle-the shape, the internal subdivisions consisting of "threes", and the followed five wave rise advance from ortodox bottom in 2012... Labeling an advance from 2012 till now as a third wave just doesn't kick that feeling of a third wave, which is "a wonder to behold". It looks tired.
> 
> So I am sticking that it was a first wave, and the third is just begining. It is a simpliest way to apply EW by not forcing some three wave rises into five. I am starting to think about the same scenario in WBC but definately not CBA and ANZ. This doesn't mean they can't rise, just under different counts.
> 
> (Note that those first and second waves are fractals in NAB)
> 
> 
> View attachment 62772
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And if banks rally, All Ords should too. I am still working on XAO structure from 2009 which is real tough to guess at this stage. The only way to make conclusion on this is through the many different stocks and other Asian Indices by getting a big picture of what is going on. I will get there soon, such dedicated elliotician as me is hard to beat by hiding something from my Eyes.
> 
> I am new to Australian market, just moved here few years ago. Before my life was in US and European markets which I know very well.  New market for me means everything from zero, especially socionomic situation in Australia. Due to this reason I can not make comments about fundamental aspects of Australian economy which confirms or denies my EW counts, but one thing I noticed immediately when getting there is a prolonged bearishness not only among retail investors, but from the entire investment and social community including analysts, comentators, fund managers, politicians and so on-the flip side of the situation in US, where a historically record optimism levels are dominated in all aspects of markets and economy.
> 
> One most recent interesting public statement was made by Motley Fool Australia, which as per my understanding is a very popular widely readed newsletter services in Austarlia. When the banks crashed, they wrote "shares are expensive and we therefore are set to a share market crash". Though they are mostly bullish long term,( this is probably mostly due to the nature of how they earn money by issuing a buy recomendations), but the short term bearish sentiment which is an outcome of the most recent bank crash captures nicely that the negative sentiment is widespread, which is bullish.
> I can be wrong, but The Picture suggests me that markets are climbing the Wall Of Worry.
> I'll get more later on this and other issues in "EW and XAO" thread.
> 
> I hold NAB , bought in last Thursday.
> Short term subdivisions are three wave rise which can be considered as a series of first and second waves or it just shoot higher from here advancing in a third wave.
> The most  recent bottom of ~33 should be as a stone for my forecast to be in effect.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 62773




We must have entered NAB at the same time !

I have a stop at $26.79 , and will possibly increase my NAB holdings next week.

Good analysis.

gg


----------



## rimtas

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have a stop at $26.79 ,



Wow, that's a far reaching stop, you really have an appetite for risk. I've set mine just below $33, as I do not expect it to move lower than that.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

rimtas said:


> Wow, that's a far reaching stop, you really have an appetite for risk. I've set mine just below $33, as I do not expect it to move lower than that.




We live in interesting times.

gg


----------



## rimtas

Garpal Gumnut said:


> We live in interesting times.
> 
> gg




Every generation tells that. All times are interesting since the man came out from the cave. Intelligent life forms are very curious and this drives the progression of species. Current time is as interesting to us as the time for romans back many centuries ago, Galileo times were also very exiting for those living then.

 But we can use the expression of sentiment as one more indicator to determine the position of social trends. When everyone starts thinking that "this time is different" and go public with that-it means trends is closer to the end, whatever it is-down or up. It can be noticed that in US this phrase now is quite common, which adds more evidence that the trend from 2009 is maturing here. Nothing to do with NAB though.


----------



## pinkboy

Stopped out today Rimtas? 

pinkboy


----------



## rimtas

After stoped out at $33,20, I am keen to initiate the position again, as the setup that is unfolding looks even more promising than the previous one.
From the Top of ~$39 NAB has declined in three waves, and has not breached the  Dec 2014 bottom of $30,90, which leaves the previous forecast for the big advance intact. 
Short term squiggles would look best if one more small wave below $31 finish the decline, but it is not required.  So setup is here and for the BUY we need a trigger-a small five wave advance intraday from the bottom. 

The DEC 2014 Bottom of $30.90 remains a Key Level, which if breached, derails the short term and longer term forecast made in the earlier post, so my absolute and last stop after entry(if made) would be at $30,85. 
With All Ords at key juncture, both scenarios have the equal probabilities at this stage.


----------



## rimtas

That triple bottom confused a bit making to think that one more wave down occurs, but the gap up today cleared the count leaving the bottom behind. As soon as I saw futures pointing of an upward gap, I initiated position right at the open. Not the best shot, but looking at the bigger picture it is still very low. 

Now I expect the stock to crawl  straight to the Key level of $34.41 and find some support above it in the weeks to come. This event would confirm that the Bottom is in.

If the Third wave is starting , it should produce a highly overbought condition in the initial stages of advance. The choppy and overlapping movement would suggest that this count is in trouble. WBC waves are better at this stage, so I will use both banks to determine an average count. If something goes wrong, I expect WBC to point first at it. 

CBA and ANZ waves are not so good as NAB and WBC, but this can change at any time. The cleanest structures occurs when the stock is left to the free market and no inside trading or forced trading is made, which distorts wave structures short term. Long term no any of those events has any influence as usually heavy traded stocks as blue chips waxe and wane with the market mood.


----------



## rimtas

First stage passed sucsessfully-NAB sported 5 waves up which confirms a bottom until the next Impulse wave develops  above today's top.

 Today's buyers should experience a little pain while the second wave develops, but the next impulsive advance should carry prices above wave ((b)) top of 34,42 in the weeks to come, which would add more weight on the count. 
WBC also has a very nice explosive structure which usually can be found at the bottom of steep declines. It also should make a couple percent down and then accelerate higher.

Looking to push a buy trigger on WBC, WES and TTS tomorrow, which has the clearest structures.


----------



## rimtas

Banks are streaming higher, getting more and more people on board, as a realization or the reversal kicks in.
But this post is more about sentiment. Few days ago I've read an extremely bearish article on TheBull.com written  by Bob Kohut about big4 witch attracted my attention  with a headline:

*Will the Big 4 Banks Rise Again?*

The original can be found here:
http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/54271-will-the-big-4-banks-rise-again.html


Aside of reasons why they can never rise again, the most important is _the timing_ of the article-basicaly it was the marker of the bottom.  You can also find that there is mentioned another date for one more "crash"-Dec 2014-also, right before the banks thrusted higher in double percentage digits. That time more than year long sideways movement made authors desperately bearish, this time a crash did the same job. 

When seeing the right wave structure, it is highly worth to scan the press for "very atractive fundamental explanations" why the trend should continue or why it should never reverse. 

One more stock that is approaching the important bottom  is WOW. I expect that along with the right wave structure we should see an increased media interest of saying how "WOW lost it's battle" or similar, involving a strong fundamental case explaining  that it could take decades to recover, or not recover at all.


----------



## rimtas

NAB hit the $34,41 level today, discussed in earlier post as a "Key level".  Short term subdivisions most  likely are just a series of 1's and 2's, and today was the Point of Recognition gap, where sentiment shifts from "will it rise" to "how much will it rise". A few more upward runaway gaps should confirm this short term count, or leave the structure as per Alternate, which is less likely due to other banks subdivisions, especially WBC. 

Basically it is a waiting time before the Impulsive structure emerges at  least on the Daily chart.  I expect that Prices will reach or slightly exceed the previous top of $39 before a sizeable multiweek correction occurs. But the bottom line is that market needs to create an overbought condition which can be considered a kick-off. Rising with Sideways movements or sizeable corrections won't achieve that, so what happens in the weeks to come can help to confirm or doubt the large picture.


----------



## rimtas

NAB is basically the only stock where I still keep a bullish count. Who knows, maybe All Ords will rise above 6000 ignoring the strong evidence that it Toped out.

Anyway,  three wave correction in NAB is almost over and the next leg of advance should begin within days, carrying prices above $35.
 I'll keep monitoring how the proposed wave (2) in All Ords develops and in accordance to that will adjust my expectations re NAB-either exit the position, or will keep on holding, unless market kicks me out at the breakeven level of $32,47 where I raised my protective stop. Smell trouble a bit.


----------



## rimtas

Nab made a new low on Friday declining to $30.79, a 11c below Dec 2014 low, wich was a basis for a bullish forecast.  This development indicates that NAB has no where to go from here but down, Leavig the structure from 2009 low as a double three, which is a correction. Some may label this as a simple ABC, but the result will be the same anyway.


----------



## fanger

Just picked some up Friday, I hope its not heading back to $15 like the last post suggests.
So does anyone have the latest technical on this stock.


----------



## Triathlete

fanger said:


> Just picked some up Friday, I hope its not heading back to $15 like the last post suggests.
> So does anyone have the latest technical on this stock.




Just had a quick look and $27.40 is important for NAB to hold here otherwise there is a very real chance of going all the way to the 2009 lows. 

Let us see what happens to the whole market over the next few months.


----------



## UMike

Trading Halt

Selling European Assets?????


----------



## Klogg

UMike said:


> Trading Halt
> 
> Selling European Assets?????




Nippon life Insurance according to the rumors:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...n-life-insurance/story-fn91wd6x-1227570036385


----------



## Tooth Faerie

UMike said:


> Trading Halt
> 
> Selling European Assets?????




Nippon Life according to this:
http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/nab-shares-halted-nippon-life-may-move-to-buy-80pc-of-life-insurance-business-20151026-gkj8xz

Seems positive to me. What would be the implications to if this were to happen?

EDIT: Late to the party.


----------



## kaerai

The sale is apparently 1.65 billion which will add more reserves to the pot. Also, that aspect of the business was offering poor returns on capital compared to other areas of the business so it looks like a positive.

The biggest thing to come out of here is the decisive actions of the CEO Thorburn. The guy is doing what he said he would do. He is severing all under-performing and international parts of the business and focussing on the bank's core strengths. It looks like NAB has finally found a strong and determined leader who has some business acumen.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

is Thorburn really doing anything of substance? 

analysis of yesterdays results don't paint a good picture, with the float pushed out to maybe February

Cameron Clyne was going to fix this stuff, now Thorburn, I think they just got to offload this stuff asap

even the CFO opened the results briefing my explaining this is all a bit messy!


----------



## Tooth Faerie

Going Ex-Div tomorrow yet down today. Wow sentiment is poor.


----------



## notting

Tooth Faerie said:


> Going Ex-Div tomorrow yet down today. Wow sentiment is poor.




I'd rather fraze that as - WOW opportunity is rife. 

Apparently the internationals have been shorting our banks ever since it started becoming undeniable that China is a basket case.
China, for the moment has managed to make their indices look boring enough to no longer be news.
US markets are back within a boulders throw of their all time highs and Ausi is still getting back to business after the far more important things like Grand Finals and The Melbourne Cup, should be a nice run into March.



> commodities
> 
> 4:00pm: Iron ore cargoes from Port Hedland to China fell last month to the lowest level since July amid signs that steel production and consumption in the largest buyer are contracting as the economy cools.
> 
> *Exports to China were 30.7 million* tonnes from 33.8 million tonnes the previous month and 31.7 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority. Overall iron ore shipments totalled 36.5 million tonnes, down from a record 39.4 million tonnes in September and *37.5 million tonnes a year ago.*




It's not just a supply glut!


----------



## Tooth Faerie

I tried to be independent and figure it out on my own but after reading it many times, I still don't understand the tax implications for the Clydesdale demerger.



> NAB is seeking a tax ruling from the ATO confirming the taxation treatment for NAB Shareholders who are Australian residents and who hold their NAB Shares on capital account.
> 
> On the basis of discussions with the ATO and after consultation with its advisers, NAB expects the Australian taxation treatment for NAB Shareholders who are Australian residents and who hold their NAB Shares on capital account should be as follows:
> 
> 
> The Capital Reduction Portions should not be treated as assessable dividends.
> For NAB Shareholders who acquired their NAB Shares after 19 September 1985, the receipt of CYBG Securities in satisfaction of the Capital Reduction Portion should result in a CGT event.
> Australian resident NAB Shareholders should make a capital gain if the Capital Reduction Portions exceed the cost base for their NAB Shares. If the Capital Reduction Portions do not exceed the cost base of their NAB Shares, there should be a reduction in the cost base (and reduced cost base) equal to the amount of the Capital Reduction Portions.
> The cost base of CYBG Securities received should be the amount of the Capital Reduction Portions referable to the CYBG Securities.
> The acquisition date of the CYBG Securities for all NAB Shareholders will be the Demerger Date, which is expected to be 8 February 2016, even if the NAB Shareholders acquired their NAB Shares before 20 September 1985.
> NAB Shareholders, including Selling Shareholders, who sell their CYBG Securities within the first 12 months after the Demerger Date will not receive the CGT discount.
> Dividends received on CYBG Securities should not carry imputation credits.
> The tax ruling is expected to be finalised after the Demerger. NAB will make an announcement to ASX when the tax ruling is issued by the ATO.
> 
> 
> Further information on the general Australian taxation implications of the Demerger is set out in Section 6 of the Scheme Booklet. You should seek your own specific taxation advice for your individual circumstances.




I'm a small shareholder and while I would rather receive Clydesdale CDIs or shares, my parcel would be umarketable (I think) so I'll probably have to make a sale election.

Can someone smarter than me explain the tax implications?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

so NAB has received go ahead to offload Clydesdale, around $3.50/share AUS, 1 for every 4 NAB you own

will be interesting to see how it goes from here


----------



## Knobby22

Toyota Lexcen said:


> so NAB has received go ahead to offload Clydesdale, around $3.50/share AUS, 1 for every 4 NAB you own
> 
> will be interesting to see how it goes from here




Should be lots of sellers. Might be interested -don't own NAB. Any thoughts as to the future of Clydesdale?


----------



## Bill M

I own NAB shares and I have what they call a small holding. I can elect to sell all (but not only some) of the CYBG Securities to which I am entitled to under the Demerger through the Sale Facility. 

I will be selling all of my CYBG Securities, I would rather have the money and use it for better investments, just not interested.


----------



## oldblue

Me, too, Bill. 

I don't need the hassle of a small holding in Clydesdale Bank so have already opted for the "Sell".


----------



## JTLP

When do you have to be on the books to have access to the offer?


----------



## Bill M

JTLP said:


> When do you have to be on the books to have access to the offer?




key dates here: http://www.clydesdaledemerger.com.au/offer/home/


----------



## tinhat

Has anyone else been buying NAB? I've been buying it all year. I received my CBY shares, sold them a couple of days ago and put the money into NAB. I've sold off other holdings and bought NAB. I've grabbed the cash lying around in my trading account and bought NAB. I picked some up this morning at $24.

It's way oversold IMHO. Factor in even a 10% reduction in the dividend going forward and it is still a compelling yield (over 10% grossed up). Yes the economic cycle suggests that the bad loan risk is rising but I think the drop in share price is way over done. As we have already seen, the banks will move to protect their margins if they need to. Will there need to be more capital raisings diluting shareholder value? Maybe, but maybe not.


----------



## Knobby22

Hi Tinhat
They do look like very good value but yhere will be more capital raisings and I think everyone is starting to think the world is going over the cliff due to Yellan talking about negative interest rates.
I am worried there is something we are not being told. Still at these yields the worst seems to be priced in.


----------



## oldblue

> Still at these yields the worst seems to be priced in.




I'm always a bit wary of these enticing yields which often turn into value traps. Until recently, the likes of RIO and BHP were viewed that way - as their shareprices gradually deflated. I'm not saying that's the case with NBA - I hold a (very) few - but I wouldn't bet much on them not having to trim their divvy at some stage.


----------



## tinhat

oldblue said:


> I'm always a bit wary of these enticing yields which often turn into value traps. Until recently, the likes of RIO and BHP were viewed that way - as their shareprices gradually deflated. I'm not saying that's the case with NBA - I hold a (very) few - but I wouldn't bet much on them not having to trim their divvy at some stage.




Yes - beware the dividend trap, yet we have been at these yields among the bank stocks several times post GFC. Remember also TLS which was abandoned by institutional investors (most notably the Future Fund) and was yielding around 12% grossed up when I bought in a few years ago. It is still grossing 8% including franking credits.

If it is true that overseas fund managers are dumping bank stocks globally, this could be a case of an opportunity for the retail investor. As always, time will tell!


----------



## shouldaindex

Whenever we get to the -20% Drawdown on the Benchmark Index, it then becomes a matter of Recession/Crisis or not.

1998, 2002, 2011 were fantastic times to buy because contagion didn't eventuate from the Asian Financial Crisis, Dot Com Bubble and Euro Debt.

1990 and 2007 were terrible times because the Global Macro lead to Global Recessions.

So basically if you take the variance in those two groups of outcomes, you're looking at up to further 40% swing or thereabouts (-20% vs +20% in the next 12 months) depending if you're right or wrong.

That doesn't take into account a potential Black Swan situation like a Deutsche Bank or CitiBank.


----------



## notting

tinhat said:


> Yes - beware the dividend trap, yet we have been at these yields among the bank stocks several times post GFC. Remember also TLS which was abandoned by institutional investors (most notably the Future Fund) and was yielding around 12% grossed up when I bought in a few years ago. It is still grossing 8% including franking credits.
> 
> If it is true that overseas fund managers are dumping bank stocks globally, this could be a case of an opportunity for the retail investor. As always, time will tell!




I'm wondering how many of those internationals that went short on our banks over the last 12 months have just fulfilled their own prophesy on fears regarding our possible exposure to China.  Our resources sector is obviously exposed but I don't think our banks are over exposed at all, even ANZ.
So whilst a trader would still be prudently chanting trend is a trend is a trend and that is your only friend.  Who cares if it's justified or not.  Until that ends sit tight.  

However, given our market is driven by international investment that's never got it right on our banks unless they were long long long, this sentiment that our banks are exposed to Chinea etc is all it took to take our banks to these great value levels at present and getting more valuable!  They are also making a mistake(if they can't get out in time) regarding new international laws and lending amounts leveraged to reserves and all that making it harder to turn a profit.  BS.  All our banks have to do is knock up the lending rates a few points and they are as profitable as ever. Easy.

So in short, when the trend is coming to an end, put the house, the holiday house,  the super, the ranch, the boat, the cars, and everything else on em.  Sit back for a few years sell and retire.

Maybe wait till after China is fully realized as having fallen over.


----------



## Knobby22

My order just tripped.
On board now.


----------



## fanger

Can someone please explain to me when I'm meant to receive the money from the demerger. I elected to take the money because I had less any 2000 shares and I wasn't interested in Clydesdale.


----------



## Bill M

fanger said:


> Can someone please explain to me when I'm meant to receive the money from the demerger. I elected to take the money because I had less any 2000 shares and I wasn't interested in Clydesdale.




4th April I believe.

===
http://www.clydesdaledemerger.com.au/offer/home/
===


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

still very much stuck in the doldrums NAB, was a high of $39 last year with ALL ORDS approaching 6000

the CYBG component is doing well but not making up the shortfall as only 1 per 4 NAB shares

still a lot of doubt lingers over the sector,


----------



## Quant

NAB at 24 bucks trading at 10 x 2016 EPS which is traditionally a screaming buy " normally " on top 4 banks , low at 24.16 today  .. Banks are on the nose lately no doubt but sometimes the best opportunties arise when no one else interested  , Buy when they are Crying .. Grossed up yield north of 10% , sure there is no growth forecast for next couple years but at some stage in this low yielding bond world this has to become attractive regardless of the risk , at 10% gross risk is priced in a lot  , certainly not without risk totally though but at 24 we have a tangible suppport 


Ignore bottom graphic , figures are wrong imo


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

almost at its capital raising price $28.50, who knows with this one where it goes


----------



## WRiley

Post-GFC, NAB still has room to climb. Last I saw two days ago, other big banking names have exceeded GFC prices and 'reached home'. There is another, but that one is not a big name compared to these.


----------



## mcgrath111

WRiley said:


> Post-GFC, NAB still has room to climb. Last I saw two days ago, other big banking names have exceeded GFC prices and 'reached home'. There is another, but that one is not a big name compared to these.



While IMO NAB is one of the better banks to out perform, I don't believe that comparing pre GFC prices to current is a good way of viewing a stocks prospects / valuation.


----------



## mcgrath111

*One of the banks to outperform. My grammar is terrible.


----------



## WRiley

mcgrath111 said:


> While IMO NAB is one of the better banks to out perform, I don't believe that comparing pre GFC prices to current is a good way of viewing a stocks prospects / valuation.




Tq McGrath,.. what opinions do you have of NAB then ?


----------



## WRiley

Seems to be 'turning round',... dropping ??


----------



## WRiley

Some investors preferred NAB over BOQ. Said that NAB has better qualities in its asset base compared to BOQ.... I hold both because of diversification : one is a major and BOQ being a regional bank. Then I too like both because these two currently offer the highest yield at current prices,...Anybody else doing the same ?


----------



## Knobby22

I hold Ben but I sold some earlier in the week.
Think the banks are getting pricey.


----------



## WRiley

Comparing bet NAB and BOQ, I noticed that NAB would drop with a higher rate than BOQ when a drop takes place. But when Financials are gaining, NAB would run-up faster than BOQ. What other bank counters have dropped by more than 6% since this sector weakness started sometime end of last wk ?


----------



## WRiley

NAB and BOQ keeps dropping below my Average Price,.. but the hesitation to buy more and average further down is there, in case the prices drop further. Perhaps for long term holds, the yield matters more, and the fear should be that the dps should not drop instead of the share price dropping.

How stable is the dps for each counter here ? Any ideas please ?


----------



## oldblue

WRiley said:


> NAB and BOQ keeps dropping below my Average Price,.. but the hesitation to buy more and average further down is there, in case the prices drop further. Perhaps for long term holds, the yield matters more, and the fear should be that the dps should not drop instead of the share price dropping.
> 
> How stable is the dps for each counter here ? Any ideas please ?




I'm tempted too, but I'll wait and see which way the trend - and especially the RSI - breaks before buying more.


----------



## WRiley

oldblue said:


> I'm tempted too, but I'll wait and see which way the trend - and especially the RSI - breaks before buying more.



Tq oldblue,... the slight risk with yr strategy is if the RSI breaks in an unfavourable manner, then the ctr would run-up real fast before we manage to buy-in. Of course, if it breaks downward, then this would give us opportunities to buy more.


----------



## tinhat

I've been long NAB for many years now and kept accumulating up to some point last year (can't remember when). Been enjoying a >10% grossed up average yield for many years now. There might be a time to sell, but for me it's not right now. Mind you I haven't looked at the chart this year.


----------



## Bill M

I've held NAB since around 1994, paid around $11 for them. Probably my most longest and heavily held stock. Usually I have at least 2 parcels of them. One parcel I sold out of at around $31.50 just recently. Looking to buy back in again at lower prices and will wait for as long as it takes for the price to come down a bit more. One of the best dividend payers I have ever had and the shares have paid for themselves probably 3 times over that long period of holding. It will be staying in my portfolio and I will be adding at lower prices.


----------



## Quant

*New Issue – NAB Subordinated Notes 2 (NABPE)*

·          Offer by National Australia Bank (“NAB”) of NAB Subordinated Notes 2 (“Notes”) –   is expected to be quoted on ASX under code “*NABPE”.*


§  *Bookbuild Margin Range:  2.20% -2.30%*

§        *Interest:* Floating rate, cumulative Interest payments to be based on a margin range of *2.20% -2.30%* per annum above the 90 day BBSW, to be set on 15 February 2017). First payment expected to be *3.97% – 4.07%* based on current 90 day BBSW rate of 1.77%.

§        *Term:* NAB Subordinated Notes 2 will mature on the Maturity date *20 September 2028* (11.6 years). NAB may, with the prior written approval of APRA, elect to redeem all or some of the NAB for the face value ($100) in cash on *20 September 2023* (6.6 years) and on any Interest Payment Date thereafter up to but excluding the Maturity Date.

*Key security features of the Offer and NAB Subordinated Notes 2: *
·          *Issuer* – *National Australia Bank Limited  *

·          *Offer size* - *$750 million, with the ability to raise more or less.*

*·         Type of Security – Subordinated Unsecured Note, directly issued by NAB which are not guaranteed by any person. NAB Subordinated Notes 2 are not deposit liabilities of NAB and are not Protected Accounts of the Banking Act or any other accounts with NAB.*
*·          Purpose and Regulatory Classification – NAB is issuing NAB Subordinated notes 2 to raise Tier 2 Capital for the purposes of the Regulatory Capital requirements that apply to NAB and APRA has confirmed that the NAB Subordinated Notes 2 will qualify as Tier 2 Capital.*
*·          Use of Proceeds – The net proceeds of the Offer will be used to refinance NSN and for general corporate purposes.*
*·         Face Value – A$100 per NAB Subordinated Unsecured Note 2.*
·          *Term* –  *NAB Subordinated Notes 2 will mature on the Maturity date 20 September 2028, unless previously redeemed or purchased by NAB or a related Entity and cancelled, or Converted or Written Off.*

·          *Interest* – *A NAB subordinated Note 2 entitles the holder to receive floating rate, cumulative Interest payable quarterly in arrears in cash until it is Redeemed Converted or Written off.*

o    *The Interest is equal to the sum of the bank Bill rate plus the Margin*

o    *The margin is expected to be determined under the Bookbuild expected to be in the range 2.20% to 2.30%. The Margin will not change for the term of the NAB Subordinated Notes 2.*

o    *The interest payment dates are each of 20 March, 20 June, 20 September and 20 December.*

o    *The first Interest Payment is Expected to be paid on 20 June 2017*

o    *Interest paid on NAB will not be franked.*

o    *Interest is not discretionary or deferrable. NAB must pay Interest to Holders unless the Solvency Condition is not satisfied. If the Solvency Condition is not satisfied on a particular payment date, Interest will not be paid on that date.*

·          *Optional Redemption – * *NAB may, with the prior written approval of APRA, elect to Redeem all or some of the NAB for the face value ($100) in cash on 20 September 2023 and on any Interest Payment Date thereafter up to but excluding the Maturity Date.*

o    *Holders should not expect that APRA’s approval will be given in these circumstances*

·          *Redemption in other Circumstances – NAB may with the prior written approval of APRA, elect to Redeem all or some of the NAB Subordinated Notes 2, following the occurrence of a Tax Event or Regulatory Event. Holders should not expect that APRA approval will be given in these circumstances.*

o    *On Redemption in these circumstances, a Holder will receive an amount equal to  *

§  *The Face Value of $100 plus*

§  *Any accrued but unpaid interest up to the Redemption date*

o    *Other conditions apply to any redemption in these circumstances.  *

·          *Solvency Condition* -   *NAB’s obligation to make payments in respect of the NAB Subordinated Notes 2 (including to pay Interest and repay the Face Value on maturity or when NAB are to be redeemed) is conditional on NAB being Solvent at the time of payment and immediately after making the payment*

o    *A failure by NAB to make a payment because of a failure to satisfy the Solvency Condition is not an Event of Default. However any unpaid amounts remain a debt payable to the Holder by NAB and will be payable on the first date on which the Solvency Condition is satisfied.*


----------



## boofhead

Seems to be a rather low margin even when correcting for franking differences say from ANZ's ANZPG offer.


----------



## Quant

NAB and all Aussie banks been inflated on this Trump Pump , bit of a blow off , upside limited first half 2017 IMO ...


----------



## kras96

boofhead said:


> Seems to be a rather low margin even when correcting for franking differences say from ANZ's ANZPG offer.




Correct and with thanks to Quant and NAB: 
NAB states that the proceeds (at least $750m) will be used to repay part of the $1.17m issue to NAB Subordinated Note I (ASX code: NABHB) holders, as well as for general purposes. NABHB mature in June 2017 and currently pay a margin of 2.75% which wasn't a bad margin back when the 90 day Bank Bill swap rate was 3.4933% (2012) as opposed to today's 1.5%. 
NABPE is targeted at these NABHA NSN holders and is priced accordingly. In todays market as Tier 2 capital under BASL III, NABPE is "rather low" at a predicted margin of 2.2-2.3% and is well below any other hybrid/note (ignoring perpetuals) in the market other than BENHB which has a margin of 1%, matures in 2054 and currently trades at $68.89. 
At an offered annual rate paid quarterly of 3.7-3.8% (margin of 2.2-2.3% plus 90 day BBSW of 1.5%) low is correct even with the potential for some cumulative interest.


----------



## WRiley

Trump Pump is fading,... US Financials dropped last night,... but Aussie Financials are still holding,...BOQ is due to report on the coming Thursday morning...any guesses on its performance in the last 6 months ?


----------



## sptrawler

WRiley said:


> Trump Pump is fading,... US Financials dropped last night,... but Aussie Financials are still holding,...BOQ is due to report on the coming Thursday morning...any guesses on its performance in the last 6 months ?



BOQ in W.A from my experience, isn't working well, I won't be using them again for a term deposit.


----------



## WRiley

sptrawler said:


> BOQ in W.A from my experience, isn't working well, I won't be using them again for a term deposit.



Sorry abt that,...


----------



## sptrawler

WRiley said:


> Sorry abt that,...




Hey, just my opinion, I tried BOQ, used them, wasn't happy with them.
It wasn't  personal, but if any one else had the same experience, I would think they would draw the same conclusion.
I went into the branch got a quote on the interest rate I would get, transferred a large sum of money over, when the info came through it was 2.8% rather than the quoted 3%.
I lived with it, but wouldn't recommend them.
I do find it interesting you're sorry about it, are you fishing.lol


----------



## Quant

WRiley said:


> Trump Pump is fading,... US Financials dropped last night,... but Aussie Financials are still holding,...BOQ is due to report on the coming Thursday morning...any guesses on its performance in the last 6 months ?



BOQ thread the place to ask that  imo


----------



## WRiley

sptrawler said:


> Hey, just my opinion, I tried BOQ, used them, wasn't happy with them.
> It wasn't  personal, but if any one else had the same experience, I would think they would draw the same conclusion.
> I went into the branch got a quote on the interest rate I would get, transferred a large sum of money over, when the info came through it was 2.8% rather than the quoted 3%.
> I lived with it, but wouldn't recommend them.
> I do find it interesting you're sorry about it, are you fishing.lol



I'd be furious too,.. no. I'm not,... just wanting to know how do you guys think abt the coming BOQ results,... sorry, wrong thread too,... I hold NAB too, hence posted into here accidentally,...


----------



## WRiley

Quant said:


> BOQ thread the place to ask that  imo



Right,.. moving this over to the BOQ house now,...


----------



## sptrawler

WRiley said:


> I'd be furious too,.. no. I'm not,... just wanting to know how do you guys think abt the coming BOQ results,... sorry, wrong thread too,... I hold NAB too, hence posted into here accidentally,...




I was wondering about that, thought you might have some knowledge, about a NAB interest in BOQ.
I guess I was too slack to check it out, but I wouldn't buy BOQ anyway, due to my experience.
Seemed like they would say anything, to get the deal, then it turns pear shaped.
But obviously wrong thread.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Another share which has done nothing for many many years, top20 company

Staggering what it has cost investors to be in shares


----------



## sptrawler

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Another share which has done nothing for many many years, top20 company
> 
> Staggering what it has cost investors to be in shares




It does depend on your circumstances, from a SMSF pensioners perspective, the dividend yield is excellent.
From a young, longer term investor with dividend re investment, the accumulated growth with a subdued share price is a plus.
For the trader after a capital gain, the outlook isn't so rosy.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

After close to 20yrs, no capital growth

That's not good outcome


----------



## WRiley

Yeah,...not a multi-bagger,.. we all know this,... but definitely not one where you can lose everything too. That's the reason we need to build a portfolio of counters, where different ctrs will go after different objectives !


----------



## Triathlete

sptrawler said:


> For the trader after a capital gain, the outlook isn't so rosy.





Toyota Lexcen said:


> After close to 20yrs, no capital growth




I am not sure what you are all talking about, there was plenty of capital growth for those that were willing to use some trend following trading rules to go with there buy and hold strategy...There is always a time to buy and a time to sell with any stock.....no use just holding for a dividend if we are losing out on the growth.

If the person had used just a monthly chart and bought in at April 1997 and held until the start of the GFC that was a 195% increase in growth about 19% each year excluding dividend. Once they realised that the GFC they could have sold out there positions.
The person could have then re entered the stock again in 2009 at the lows and held until April 2015 that was another 149% increase over 6 years about 24% a year without dividends and this is not active trading. So this is just 2 trades in one stock over 18 years.......plenty of growth to me but not if you are going to also hold through major downtrends......


----------



## Wysiwyg

Make of Fibonacci what you will but to me it is a self fullfilling technical analysis. That is when the price rebounds around a line, the TA works. 

Anyway, the GFC trough to 2015 peak has the 50% retracement line which current price tipped. What does that mean? Nothing!  I just wanted to show the weekly for a long long long entry at the best possible low low low price. Not there yet in my belief. Maybe 25, seems like an historical magnet.


----------



## PZ99

It probably will hit the 25's today going off the US + ASX futures. 

NAB reports in about 3 weeks as well - could touch 24's, then 23's after the divvy..

If we're lucky


----------



## Wysiwyg

$26 close on the button. A coincidental, random auction number. Must be worth at least an 80c bounce.


----------



## tinhat

Income stock. Planet dying. Grossed up yield.


----------



## sptrawler

Their AGM  will be interesting, I wonder how much provisioning they will do and what the dividend will be.
I still think, there is further to fall as PZ99 said, just another speed hump in life, that presents an opportunity. IMO
It causes a jolt, but doesn't cause the car to roll over.


----------



## notting

Who want's a 7.5% tax free return and at least one more lot of franking credits, and eventual  capital gain at the time of your choosing? All the analysts have been down on the banks for over a year-
Screaming buy @ 25.75 as is GS (Goldman)


----------



## tinhat

NAB is the second largest holding in the SMSF. It has the highest payout ratio of the big four though at 80% of earnings so is sailing closest to the wind. I might pick up some BOQ, currently yielding 10.4% grossed-up just to maintain diversification across a few banks.

I know that NAB has always been perceived to be more of a business lender than the others but is that actually still the case?


----------



## notting

Good points. Historically could be a better capital play.
BOQ tends to be a little more volatile and also a bit more bullish when the runs are on.
Yet also has greater % exposure to QLD property, so is certainly less diversified not just in business and SMSFs etc. NAB also has a bit more recognition from international traders who will want to get back on board when A$ stops tanking.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

I see NAB dropping another 20% and dropping their dividend at least 10%. 

Cameron Clyde was going to save the company, now Thorburn is going to do something. 

Blue chip stock/business? Not so sure.


----------



## tinhat

The price is coming into buy territory in my view albeit with the risks against upside already mentioned by others. 25 days out from ex-dividend.


----------



## Triathlete

Wysiwyg said:


> Make of Fibonacci what you will but to me it is a self fullfilling technical analysis. That is when the price rebounds around a line, the TA works.
> 
> Anyway, the GFC trough to 2015 peak has the 50% retracement line which current price tipped. What does that mean? Nothing!  I just wanted to show the weekly for a long long long entry at the best possible low low low price. Not there yet in my belief. Maybe 25, seems like an historical magnet.
> 
> View attachment 89680



Yes you are correct just having support and resistance lines based on Fibonnaci on a chart does not really mean too much.
For  someone who is an advanced technical trader these lines are just the start of their analysis.
They may also decide to use more advanced techniques such as Elliott wave or Cycles theory to name a few which will help decide if the odds in taking the trade or not is worth the risk and over what time frame they are trading.......using advanced techniques will increase your chances of being profitable and successfully above 90%........


----------



## tinhat

An interesting article which gives an estimate of the restitution costs arising out of the Royal Commision for each of the major banks: 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10...iour-rising-rapidly/10386678?section=business

The estimate is about 1.1 billion for NAB.

I couldn't resist and bought some more NAB yesterday making my SMSF portfolio very overweight NAB.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Looks like a set up prior to further lows. Some off come ex-dividend 8th Nov to consider.


----------



## Wysiwyg

24.53 the low? The gross div. yield must be a respectable percentage now?


----------



## PZ99

It's tempting but I'm waiting until after the results (1st Nov) before topping up.


----------



## sptrawler

Wysiwyg said:


> 24.53 the low? The gross div. yield must be a respectable percentage now?



The problem is, we don't know what the dividend will be, yet.


----------



## sptrawler

PZ99 said:


> It's tempting but I'm waiting until after the results (1st Nov) before topping up.



If Wall street keeps sliding, so will the ASX, add to that a poor AGM report = buying opportunity. IMO


----------



## PZ99

Net profit rose by 5.1% to 5.55 billion Australian dollars (US$3.95 billion) in the year through September from A$5.29 billion the prior year

Divvy remains at 99c


----------



## Klogg

PZ99 said:


> Net profit rose by 5.1% to 5.55 billion Australian dollars (US$3.95 billion) in the year through September from A$5.29 billion the prior year
> 
> Divvy remains at 99c




Banks' dividends are at risk.

Underlying earnings for NAB and ANZ both down, expenses up significantly, and their profit engine (home loans) are slowing. Who knows how long that goes, but it's hard to see the effects of the RC waning any time soon.

Add to that the AUDUSD yield spread, and you risk overseas funding becoming more expensive once more. 

All of this at a time when credit impairments are at all time lows.

This feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


----------



## PZ99

Agreed. Worth noting the NAB went through all this 5 years ago from compensating UK customers and other write offs. Next year they lose around 6000 jobs off their payroll. Hard to tell where to from here but even a 10% cut in the divvy is good value at this current price.

Project opening above $25.50 at 9.55am - a short term rebound could be on the cards 







https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-01/nab-full-year-results-2018/10453522


----------



## willy1111

Klogg said:


> ... and their profit engine (home loans) are slowing. Who knows how long that goes, but it's hard to see the effects of the RC waning any time soon.
> 
> Add to that the AUDUSD yield spread, and you risk overseas funding becoming more expensive once more.
> 
> All of this at a time when credit impairments are at all time lows.




If they maintain market share with home loans I fail to see how earnings there slow as they continue to make spread on existing customers?

Rising US funding costs would just be passed onto customers via interest rate rises.

Maybe delinquency rates will rise if rates rise, but 5 yr fixed rates are still very attractive by historical standards so maybe not as big a risk as expected? Those that are on the brink would be likely looking at fixed rates.

The risk is job losses or unexpected illness that lead to loss of income resulting in inability to repay loans...that has always been the major risk...maybe Australia goes into recession in the next few years and there are widespread job losses resulting in a spike in bad debts?


----------



## Klogg

willy1111 said:


> If they maintain market share with home loans I fail to see how earnings there slow as they continue to make spread on existing customers?
> 
> Rising US funding costs would just be passed onto customers via interest rate rises.
> 
> Maybe delinquency rates will rise if rates rise, but 5 yr fixed rates are still very attractive by historical standards so maybe not as big a risk as expected? Those that are on the brink would be likely looking at fixed rates.
> 
> The risk is job losses or unexpected illness that lead to loss of income resulting in inability to repay loans...that has always been the major risk...maybe Australia goes into recession in the next few years and there are widespread job losses resulting in a spike in bad debts?




Continually passing on costs to customers when they're already stretched isn't a great long term strategy. Default rates are low because funding costs and inflation are low.

If the AUD tanks, funding costs rise... at least until imported inflation shows up and rates are hiked. At which point the customer struggles to make payments. Defaults are low because rates are low... and prices are falling even with low default rates.
5 year fixed rates may look good, but that's all relative to the price of hedging for the bank. So it's the market setting the price, and we know the market is not always right (although it is a lot of the time).

Whether unemployment is the leading indicator or a result of a soft housing market shouldn't be assumed. One could argue that lower prices simultaneously cause defaults (developers can't make ends meet as easily) and unemployment (because dwelling construction slows).

It's worth mentioning that house prices are falling even when credit is growing at over 5% p.a. Imagine what happens if that flat-lines. Negative equity on some of the book is a starting point... with some other types of reinforcing feedback to follow.

These are very high level macro ideas, so they're not set in stone. But investing in banks just over the peak of the credit cycle is not where I want to be (although it can end well).


----------



## notting

Yeah but the housing unwind is very civilized and they've stopped and reigned in the interest rate only loans which means those that bought overpriced houses at the top are still slowly managing to chip away at the capital and hence there is a slow deleveraging taking place as well whilst the softening housing market occurs - very healthy!!
So the risks are pretty mild.
It seemed the whole universe was holding it's breath to see if NAB was going to keep it's dividend at the current rate to decide whether or not it was a screaming buy, and it has!
So for medium to longer term great tax free returns, what else would you buy given the size stability and the fact it is remaining very profitable over the course of having everything but the kitchen sink thrown at it?!!


----------



## PZ99

PZ99 said:


> It probably will hit the 25's today going off the US + ASX futures.
> 
> NAB reports in about 3 weeks as well - could touch 24's, then 23's after the divvy..
> 
> If we're lucky



Well I was a dollar out but topped up today anyway. You only live once


----------



## tinhat

NAB is now sitting just below the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of the post GFC run from 2009 to 2015 and has hit the double bottoms of March and June 2016. I bought some more today.


----------



## tinhat

Every time I log into commsec I end up buying more NAB. I bought again today. It's like going to the fish markets at Christmas and everyone is buying salmon and lobster and prawns and there is a dude in the corner with a whole crate of slimy mackerel and he can't even give it away.

It's going to be a slimy mackerel Christmas with just me and a crate of stinking NAB shares sitting in the corner! Enjoy your lobster!


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> Every time I log into commsec I end up buying more NAB. I bought again today. It's like going to the fish markets at Christmas and everyone is buying salmon and lobster and prawns and there is a dude in the corner with a whole crate of slimy mackerel and he can't even give it away.
> 
> It's going to be a slimy mackerel Christmas with just me and a crate of stinking NAB shares sitting in the corner! Enjoy your lobster!



My guess is, in the end you will be eating the salmon and lobster, most will be eating slimy mackerel.
Then they will point at you, because you are one of those lucky people, who woke up one morning well off.
People have choices they can buy shares, save and eat mackerel now, then hopefully eat salmon and lobster later.
Or they can eat salmon and lobster now and try to accumulate wealth later, which is a much harder proposition.


----------



## Ann

Here is a chart for NAB travelling in and failing an 11 year old equilateral triangle. It now sits on a support level of around $24. My guess is it will fall and test the $20 level, as its last high of $34 was lower than the previous high of $37. I have added a Fibbo for those who look at them.


----------



## coolcup

Ann said:


> Here is a chart for NAB travelling in and failing an 11 year old equilateral triangle. It now sits on a support level of around $24. My guess is it will fall and test the $20 level, as its last high of $34 was lower than the previous high of $37. I have added a Fibbo for those who look at them.
> 
> View attachment 90343




That is one scary long term view!!!


----------



## sptrawler

coolcup said:


> That is one scary long term view!!!



That is the problem with investing.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Ann said:


> Here is a chart for NAB travelling in and failing an 11 year old equilateral triangle. It now sits on a support level of around $24. My guess is it will fall and test the $20 level, as its last high of $34 was lower than the previous high of $37. I have added a Fibbo for those who look at them.



Around $20 is insane considering NAB are currently ($24.35) gross yielding +11% and forever have maintained or raised(discount GFC). Bring on $20 NAB ......


----------



## Wysiwyg

sptrawler said:


> The problem is, we don't know what the dividend will be, yet.



Check dividend history and tell me when the dividend has been cut beside the one in lifetime GFC?


----------



## PZ99

Forget $20. If they do cut the divvy it'll go straight to the teens.

Then again - each divvy is 99c taken off the share price anyway. 

Maybe they could put Malcolm Turnbull on as CEO - that would be funny after the RC


----------



## InsvestoBoy

This is stuck in my head:
https://www.afr.com/news/economy/employment/uncovering-the-big-aussie-short-20160223-gn130w


> "Australian banks require large scale wholesale funding. In the event of a banking crisis, it will be difficult to roll the wholesale funding without any public sector guarantees. The Reserve Bank of Australia will guarantee the banks and charge a fee, as it did in the 2008 financial crisis. We anticipate most bank shares will cut dividends entirely, raise capital and stock prices will likely decline 80 per cent." He also predicted the Australia dollar could trade to 40c against the United States dollar.




I think it's very hard to argue with the first sentence of that quote. And if you include a wholesale funding disruption in your list of "risks that might actually happen", then the rest of it follows fairly naturally.


----------



## sptrawler

InsvestoBoy said:


> This is stuck in my head:
> https://www.afr.com/news/economy/employment/uncovering-the-big-aussie-short-20160223-gn130w
> 
> 
> I think it's very hard to argue with the first sentence of that quote. And if you include a wholesale funding disruption in your list of "risks that might actually happen", then the rest of it follows fairly naturally.



I think there is more likelihood of the last sentence, coming to fruition, than the first.
Just my opinion.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

sptrawler said:


> I think there is more likelihood of the last sentence, coming to fruition, than the first.
> Just my opinion.




The first sentence is already here, a goodly chunk of Big 4 funding comes from wholesale overseas credit market. Maybe you think the Australian economy is super stable or whatever, but if Europe and Asia get a hiccup, they will either pay a lot to roll that funding or simply be unable to roll it at all.


----------



## sptrawler

InsvestoBoy said:


> The first sentence is already here, a goodly chunk of Big 4 funding comes from wholesale overseas credit market. Maybe you think the Australian economy is super stable or whatever, but if Europe and Asia get a hiccup, they will either pay a lot to roll that funding or simply be unable to roll it at all.




I don't see the overseas economies having a hiccup, I see our economy as being more fragile. Take out resources and what supports our lifestyle and welfare society?
Using a quote you made on another thread:
_We like to think we are a developed economy but our sector weights and index performance over the long term is much closer to an Emerging Markets index_.
As our population grows and our manufacturing reduces, we become more and more like an emerging economy. IMO
So I think there is a greater possibility of our dollar falling, as our productivity falls, than credit funding drying up.
Our economy looks a lot more like Brazil's than Germany's. IMO


----------



## InsvestoBoy

sptrawler said:


> Our economy looks a lot more like Brazil's than Germany's. IMO




Emerging economies, especially Brazil, are pretty much wholly reliant on that wholesale funding.

I recognise that to most it’s probably an inconceivable risk, but for me personally, it’s on my risk list.


----------



## tinhat

I scraped together a few more coins yesterday to buy some more NAB. If it gets a bounce I will most likely sell this parcel, otherwise I will be drinking cask wine this Christmas and holding for the long term.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> I scraped together a few more coins yesterday to buy some more NAB. If it gets a bounce I will most likely sell this parcel, otherwise I will be drinking cask wine this Christmas and holding for the long term.



These opportunities are what set you up for retirement. IMO


----------



## lusk

sptrawler said:


> These opportunities are what set you up for retirement. IMO




They are also the ones that mean you have to keep working. Nab is in a downtrend it might bounce of 24.
I call these a hope trade.


----------



## sptrawler

lusk said:


> They are also the ones that mean you have to keep working. Nab is in a downtrend it might bounce of 24.
> I call these a hope trade.



That is the good thing about shares, for every person that thinks a share is worth buying, there is someone who thinks they should be sold.
Hindsight is what shows who was right.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

sptrawler said:


> That is the good thing about shares, for every person that thinks a share is worth buying, there is someone who thinks they should be sold.
> Hindsight is what shows who was right.




But if you think it's a generational buy that'll set you up for retirement, why not wait for a higher low?


----------



## sptrawler

InsvestoBoy said:


> But if you think it's a generational buy that'll set you up for retirement, why not wait for a higher low?



That is where it comes back to the individual, a bell doesn't ring when a share hits the bottom, so to accumulate the share when it reaches your perceived good value makes sense. IMO
I am not talking about trading shares, more about building a backbone for a portfolio, that can supply an income in retirement. These sort of opportunities come along a few times in your life, I just added to the pool when they did.
It is the way I did it and I retired at 55, not saying it is right or wrong, just that it worked for me. What is the old saying, different strokes for different folks.


----------



## tinhat

I bought some more just after the open this morning. If they cart me off to the funny farm, point the shrink to this thread.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> I bought some more just after the open this morning. If they cart me off to the funny farm, point the shrink to this thread.



It sounds like it is going to be a grinch christmas for you, unless you start gifting NAB shares.


----------



## mcgrath111

Also thought today was a long term buying opportunity, in at $23.20. 

Thinking/hoping/wishing/praying that the banks are in a similar spot to every sector and one time or another and trend back. How long this will be is anyone's guess?!


----------



## jbocker

"Don't NAB the cash" was the ear-thump message given by shareholders yesterday for Adoption of the Remuneration Report for the year ended 30 September 2018. I believe it was approx. 88% NO vote and a First Strike.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

really NAB needs to be gobbled up. 

would not interfere with competition considering there are like 70 companies offering loans


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I believe the NAB Platinum Card to be be the most assertive and woke of all the Credit Cards available atm.


----------



## mcgrath111

Possible break through of $23 at open. 
I've bought too many already, so I'll try to ignore the price action for the time being. 
Wondering how long that $1 divvy can be sustained? Thoughts on if we will see it reduced for Half year? Will the RC be complete by then? (Haven't heard much of it, as of recent) 
Will the labor franking bill have that much impact (Will it be passed - me thinks no, even though a resounding labour victory is eminent. 

The more the price goes down, the more questions I will ask haha


----------



## Wysiwyg

Into the 22's now. This is the swing point in my opinion.


----------



## mcgrath111

Wysiwyg said:


> Into the 22's now. This is the swing point in my opinion.



What's a swing point?


----------



## Wysiwyg

A place where something changes direction and goes back from whence it came.


----------



## sptrawler

Wysiwyg said:


> A place where something changes direction and goes back from whence it came.



I'm thinking the banks will make a run, as soon as the RC outcome is announced. 
It will be something like, you have been very naughty boys and you must behave yourselves, now get back to work. LOL


----------



## Skate

mcgrath111 said:


> Possible break through of $23 at open.
> I've bought too many already, so I'll try to ignore the price action for the time being.
> Wondering how long that $1 divvy can be sustained? Thoughts on if we will see it reduced for Half year? Will the RC be complete by then? (Haven't heard much of it, as of recent)
> Will the labor franking bill have that much impact (Will it be passed - me thinks no, even though a resounding labour victory is eminent.
> 
> The more the price goes down, the more questions I will ask haha




@mcgrath111 If I could take the liberty to show you my chart of NAB. I'm not questioning why you initially purchased NAB & I'm not commenting whether further purchases are good or bad. I just want you to see it from my perspective.

*Yellow Ribbon*
Look at the little yellow ribbon at the bottom of the chart.

*What does that yellow ribbon mean*
That's a ROC indicator (ROC = Rate Of Change) a momentum indicator. Each time the yellow ribbon activates it means the momentum is dropping. It means the ROC of the last 10 weeks is lower than 0%. 

*In a nutshell* 
Other investors/traders don't share your view. (more sellers than buyers)

*Ribbon Length *
The length of the ribbon indicates the length of time the momentum continues to drop. The chart is a sea of yellow & this may indicate my caution - at least it will give you my take on NAB.

*Why is my ROC ribbon yellow*
If a traffic light turns yellow we prepare to stop. If I own the share my strategy turns on a searchlight to highlight the fact.

*I'm a wimp*
In my 'Dump it here thread' I've spoken about the virtues of being a wimp. I'm first to admit I'm a Wimp.







Skate.


----------



## mcgrath111

Skate said:


> @mcgrath111 If I could take the liberty to show you my chart of NAB. I'm not questioning why you initially purchased NAB & I'm not commenting whether further purchases are good or bad. I just want you to see it from my perspective.
> 
> *Yellow Ribbon*
> Look at the little yellow ribbon at the bottom of the chart.
> 
> *What does that yellow ribbon mean*
> That's a ROC indicator (ROC = Rate Of Change) a momentum indicator. Each time the yellow ribbon activates it means the momentum is dropping. It means the ROC of the last 10 weeks is lower than 0%.
> 
> *In a nutshell*
> Other investors/traders don't share your view. (more sellers than buyers)
> 
> *Ribbon Length *
> The length of the ribbon indicates the length of time the momentum continues to drop. The chart is a sea of yellow & this may indicate my caution - at least it will give you my take on NAB.
> 
> *Why is my ROC ribbon yellow*
> If a traffic light turns yellow we prepare to stop. If I own the share my strategy turns on a searchlight to highlight the fact.
> 
> *I'm a wimp*
> In my 'Dump it here thread' I've spoken about the virtues of being a wimp. I'm first to admit I'm a Wimp.
> 
> View attachment 90865
> 
> 
> Skate.



Interesting, i've never used anything like that myself. 

I'm largely going off:
1) Div (Likely to fall in short to mid term)
2) Negative sentiment around banks. I also feel that the RC is a charade. 
3) Bounce in short term, think that selling is a little over done. (Dow futures up as I speak)...but if it turns to ****, I'll just hold / ignore for the next 5 lol


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Skate said:


> *In a nutshell*
> Other investors/traders don't share your view. (more sellers than buyers)




Here's a chart of the returns of NAB (dividends included) if you only invest in NAB when other investors share your view (10w ROC > 0). 






Not all that great, compared to if you had just held onto NAB and reinvested the dividends...


----------



## Wysiwyg

So into no man's land for Mr. Fibonacci. One observance is last week having the highest weekly volume in over five years. Monday intraday low is a pickup for moi and no point in calling a low because smart ass Mr. Market (who is that guy anyway) likes to out muscle these ideas.


----------



## sptrawler

IMO calling the low point on NAB or any of the banks, can't be done untill the outcome of the RC is announced.
Then we will know if the low point has passed or is yet to come. IMO


----------



## PZ99

NAB didn't get the 11% run it should've got today 

Still, happy to tip it for a run next year - even after a short term drop...


----------



## tinhat

I almost bought some more on Friday. I wish I had now. I think the Chairman and CEO should resign in view of the scathing comments Hayne specifically made regarding Henry and Thorburn.


----------



## PZ99

I'm selling a few for $24.40 each - or two for $50


----------



## bigdog

Andrew in the news again

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ge_busnews_am&instance=2019-02-06--19-35--UTC

*Andrew Thorburn's former chief of staff allegedly rorted $500k for a holiday*
*By Nick McKenzie, Richard Baker and Sarah Danckert*
February 6, 2019 — 11.49pm

The former chief of staff of embattled National Australia Bank boss Andrew Thorburn allegedly rorted more than $500,000 from the NAB to fund an extravagant overseas family holiday that included first class travel and luxury resorts.

_The Age_ and the _Sydney Morning Herald_ have confirmed that police are investigating whether shoddy oversight inside Mr Thorburn's office enabled and emboldened his former chief of staff, Rosemary Rogers, and a corporate event contractor to pull off a suspected multi-million dollar fraud.

Ms Rogers' overseas jaunt, which included multiple destinations and six other close family members, is the most egregious transaction being probed by NSW detectives, according to NAB sources.

Two NAB insiders have said that they both had concerns about a culture of largesse and extravagant spending that became normalised inside Mr Thorburn’s office and which allegedly centred around Ms Rogers and contractor, the Human Group.

The insiders described several offsite strategy meetings for NAB executives at luxury resorts in the Wolgan Valley, where guests arrived via helicopter, and on Kangaroo Island in South Australia. One NAB insider alleged that Ms Rogers kept a “slush fund” from which she gave staff benefits, including expensive gifts.

The police suspect that Ms Rogers and the Human Group devised a system in which they allegedly issued inflated invoices to the NAB to collect kickbacks and cover certain private expenses, including Ms Rogers' $500,000 overseas holiday.

The revelations about Ms Rogers comes as the NAB chief fights to retain his job after strong criticism on Monday from former High Court justice Kenneth Hayne in his banking royal commission findings.

Commissioner Hayne also questioned whether NAB chairman Ken Henry and Mr Thorburn had really grasped the gravity of the bank's misconduct.

Both Mr Thorburn and Mr Henry have vowed to improve NAB's culture, despite expressing disappointment with Commissioner Hayne's personal criticism.

On Tuesday night, Mr Thorburn was blunt about his future, saying he could not guarantee he would still be in his job on Friday. An emergency board meeting was held on Tuesday to discuss his fate and further discussions are being held this week, according to bank sources.

_The Age_ and _Herald_ have confirmed that NAB is aware of the police interest in Ms Rogers' overseas trip. A NAB spokesman said on Wednesday that the bank continued to co-operate with police on an inquiry which was instigated by a whistleblower report.

"If the alleged fraud is proven, it represents a most serious breach of trust by a former employee," the spokesman said.

NAB sources said there is also concern inside the bank that Mr Thorburn will be called to give evidence in any trial involving Ms Rogers, which could lead to him being examined about the fraud scandal that has enveloped his former staffer.

While there is no evidence that Mr Thorburn knew that Ms Rogers was involved in the criminal conspiracy, two NAB insiders with direct knowledge of her activities say she exploited a major corporate governance failure inside Mr Thornburn’s office.

In December, _The Age_ revealed how Mr Thorburn took a luxury Fiji holiday and a Thermomix arranged by Ms Rogers and the Human Group.

While Mr Thorburn paid several thousands dollars towards the trip, the full cost of it and the Thermomix was ultimately passed on to NAB shareholders via inflated invoices issued by the Human Group.

Sources familiar with the case say the Human Group is suspected of issuing invoices to the NAB to make the bank cover the costs of Mr Thorburn's trip to a resort where the rooms cost between $6000 and $45,000 per night, and the Thermomix worth about $2000.

The contractor also allegedly issued inflated invoices to cover Ms Rogers $500,000 family holiday.

Dr Henry was also indirectly caught up in the scandal after NAB board documents tendered to the royal commission showed he had been quizzed at a board meeting over the first-class tickets he received that were booked by Ms Rogers. There was no allegation of wrongdoing against the former Treasury secretary.

NAB has previously disclosed a small number of "inadvertent" breaches of the company's policies by Mr Thorburn in relation to Ms Rogers activities. But it also said he had been cleared of wrongdoing by the bank's board, which according to October's board minutes is of the belief the mis-appropriation of funds had begun occurring years before Mr Thorburn's appointment as CEO.

The board cut Mr Thorburn's remuneration by 25 per cent last year in recognition of the lack of financial controls in his office and the bank's poor 2018 performance.

There is no suggestion that Mr Thorburn is involved in the alleged criminal conduct and in April he expressed anger and disappointment at the alleged corruption of his former chief of staff and the Human Group.

NAB's conflict of interest policy which was tendered to the royal commission says: "You must exercise care in the giving and receiving of business related benefits, gifts or entertainment to/from potential and existing customers and product providers and obtain approval from your people leader above specified threshold values."

The policy adds: "You are responsible for identifying personal or business circumstances that may give rise to potential, actual or perceived Conflicts of Interest and for recording those details in the relevant Conflicts of Interest Register."

The Human Group's NSW offices were raided by NSW detectives in April 2018 for allegedly paying secret commissions to Ms Rogers in return for her help directing it millions of dollars of contracts from NAB.

It was via these inquiries that fraud taskforce detectives have also uncovered the Human Group's role in arranging a Fiji trip to the private island resort of Laucala and the kitchen appliance for Mr Thorburn.

The police probe was triggered in late 2017, after NAB received a whistleblower complaint and notified authorities. Victoria Police declined to comment.

At the time of the police raids in April, it was also revealed that Ms Rogers, a long time NAB employee and chief-of-staff to Mr Thorburn since 2014, had left the bank and was being investigated.

When the raids occurred, Mr Thorburn told staff: “If these allegations are proved to be true it is a very serious breach of trust and banking is based on trust. And I, like you, are very proud of our company and what banking stands for and these sort of allegations really hurt our reputation.”

Ms Rogers held the position of chief-of-staff for nine years, including under former chief executive Cameron Clyne, before her resignation in December last year.

Police raided her Williamstown house in December. _The Age_ sought Ms Rogers for comment.


----------



## PZ99

They've just gone into trading halt. Resignation pending ?


----------



## sptrawler

There will be a few fall on their sword, they took the big bucks, they should wear it.
With big $, comes big risk.
I find Henry's fall from grace interesting, he was seen as a pillar of society and a man of principles, when he conducted the tax review.
Now, apparently, his character is called into question.
It all shows why politicians set up committee's, they aren't that stupid, or else their public servants give them a heads up.lol


----------



## bigdog

NAB  7/02/2019 3:35:08 PM  Trading Halt


----------



## Wysiwyg

Yes you don't see a Trading Halt on NAB very often. Blood has been spilled?


----------



## Buckfont

PZ99 said:


> They've just gone into trading halt. Resignation pending ?



Gaol/Jail pending?


----------



## Darc Knight

NAB CEO Andrew Thorburn has resigned and chairman Ken Henry will leave the bank, following damning criticism from the banking royal commission.

ABC


----------



## bigdog

7/02/2019 5:14:29 PM 3  CEO and Chairman to leave NAB


----------



## rogue1

Sell up on NAB shares, you reckon..?


----------



## PZ99

Don't think it'll make any difference other than save some beer money for the slush fund.


----------



## tinhat

rogue1 said:


> Sell up on NAB shares, you reckon..?




Do you own any?


----------



## rogue1

tinhat said:


> Do you own any?




I do, actually...


----------



## Darc Knight

PZ99 said:


> Don't think it'll make any difference other than save some beer money for the slush fund.




Bit like the Comm you reckon? They say it takes at least 3-5 years to change a culture. 
How's Ken Henry's fall from grace, geez!


----------



## sasch

Darc Knight said:


> How's Ken Henry's fall from grace, geez!




“It takes a lifetime to build a good reputation, but you can lose it in a minute.”


----------



## bigdog

Update on yesterdays report re ex chief of staff

https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/police-freeze-7-5m-in-assets-of-ex-chief-of-staff-to-nab-boss-20190207-p50wc4.html?promote_channel=edmail&mbnr=MzIxMDQyMQ&eid=email:nnn-13omn658-ret_newsl-membereng:nnn-04/11/2013-business_news_am-dom-business-nnn-age-u&campaign_code=13IBU020&et_bid=29163431&list_name=2033_age_busnews_am&instance=2019-02-07--20-09--UTC

*Police freeze $7.5m in assets of ex chief of staff to NAB boss*
By Sarah Danckert, Nick McKenzie and Richard Baker
February 8, 2019 — 12.00am

Police have frozen nearly $8 million in assets owned by the former chief of staff to outgoing National Australia Bank boss Andrew Thorburn including a $1 million NAB bank cheque as part of its investigation into an alleged fraud inside the bank.

The NSW and Victorian supreme courts slapped freezing orders over Rosemary Rogers' $6.2 million property portfolio, three of her bank accounts and the $1m cheque following a proceeds of crime application by the NSW Crime Commission last year.

The orders are part of an investigation by NSW police into allegations Ms Rogers and a corporate event contractor were involved in running a massive fraud against the bank. Ms Rogers has not been charged and the investigation is ongoing.

Ms Rogers is suspected of rorting more than $500,000 from NAB to fund an extravagant overseas family holiday that included first class travel and luxury resort.

Mr Thorburn and NAB chairman Ken Henry suddenly resigned on Thursday in the wake of criticism from the banking royal commission of both men.

On Wednesday, The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald revealed police are investigating whether shoddy oversight inside Mr Thorburn's office enabled and emboldened Ms Rogers and the event contractor to pull off a suspected multi-million dollar fraud.

In November, both papers revealed how Mr Thorburn took a luxury Fiji holiday and a Thermomix arranged by Ms Rogers and the Human Group.

While Mr Thorburn paid several thousands dollars towards the trip, the full cost of it and the Thermomix was ultimately passed on to NAB shareholders via inflated invoices issued by the Human Group.

NAB disclosed a small number of "inadvertent" breaches of the company's policies by Mr Thorburn in relation to Ms Rogers activities in its annual report but said he had been cleared of wrongdoing by the bank's board.

According to October's board minutes, NAB is of the belief the mis-appropriation of funds had begun occurring years before Mr Thorburn's appointment as chief executive.

Ms Rogers was the chief of staff of Mr Thorburn’s predecessor Cameron Clyne, who retired as the bank’s boss in August 2014. There is no suggestion Mr Thorburn is involved in the alleged criminal conduct.

Proceeds of crime restraining orders were slapped over Rosemary Rogers $6.7 million property portfolio amassed between 2013 and 2017, the $1 million cheque, two speedboats and Ms Roger’s 2015 Range Rover in December.

Under the orders, Ms Rogers’ husband Anthony must provide the police with a list of any property held in his name. Calls to their family home in Williamstown went unanswered on Thursday.

Four properties purchased by Ms Rogers are subject to the freezing orders.

This includes a sprawling property in Bellbrae, a desirable rural hamlet nestled between popular beachside towns Torquay and Anglesea. The Rogers’ purchased the property in 2013 for just under a $1m but it is expected to have increased in value.

The Rogers' elegant four-bedroom, heritage-fronted home in Williamstown, replete with an indoor pool is also frozen.

The couple purchased it December 6, 2017 - just weeks after the banking royal commission was called by the federal government.

Also frozen is a two bedroom $700,000 plus “executive” apartment in Williamstown with bayside views purchased in December 2017 as well as a large flat in the Dimmey’s apartment redevelopment in Cremorne just a few kilometres from NAB’s Docklands offices.

A 2016 Chaparral Sunesta motorboat and a Anglapro Sniper motorboats have also been frozen.

Ms Rogers' overseas jaunt is the most egregious transaction being probed by NSW detectives, according to NAB sources.

Two NAB insiders have said that they both had concerns about a culture of largesse and extravagant spending that became normalised inside Mr Thorburn’s office and which allegedly centred around Ms Rogers and contractor, the Human Group.

One NAB insider alleged that Ms Rogers kept a “slush fund” from which she gave staff benefits, including expensive gifts.

The police suspect Ms Rogers and the Human Group devised a system in which they allegedly issued inflated invoices to the NAB to collect kickbacks and cover certain private expenses, including Ms Rogers' $500,000 overseas holiday.

A NAB spokesman said the bank continued to co-operate with police on an inquiry which was instigated by a whistleblower report.

"If the alleged fraud is proven, it represents a most serious breach of trust by a former employee," the spokesman said.

Mr Thorburn told journalists on Thursday night that the bank had reported the situation to the police and it was co-operating with police inquiries.


----------



## PZ99

National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) today announced additional charges of $525 million after tax ($749 million before tax) in connection with increased provisions for its customer-related remediation program. This is expected to reduce 1H19 cash earnings by an estimated $325 million and earnings from discontinued operations by an estimated $200 million.

Nothing about the dividend... yet. They report on May 2


----------



## rnr

Hopefully prices will consolidate here and then move higher.


----------



## PZ99

I'm expecting downside after the reports (and RBA cash rate 7th May) hit the market this week.


----------



## PZ99

PZ99 said:


> I'm expecting downside after the reports (and RBA cash rate 7th May) hit the market this week.



Don't listen to anything I just said then, they're all loosing money and flying upwards.

Go Figure


----------



## PZ99

Crikey - they've cut the divvy !

83 cents.


----------



## PZ99

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-02/nab-half-year-results-2019/11064944


----------



## Toyota Lexcen

Another pathetic situation for shareholders. Oh but we have to have a  strong capital position as per regulation.

Another CEO we come in. For them to be taken seriously they should be sacking a quarter of there workforce.

Banks are shrinking yet they not making changes to staff.


----------



## So_Cynical

Banks have to fall, they just have to lose some of their value, you simply cannot have a housing market 
collapse combined with the RC provisioning and credit tightening and not see the SP fall and dividends cut.


----------



## tinhat

I'm happy with my load up of NAB. I sold out of most of my recent long position (late last year?) at a modest profit earlier this year and kept a few for accumulation for long term in the SMSF.

This stuff is rather simple. Things go in cycles, markets over-reach.  Dividend are money in your bank account.


----------



## Smurf1976

So_Cynical said:


> Banks have to fall, they just have to lose some of their value, you simply cannot have a housing market
> collapse combined with the RC provisioning and credit tightening and not see the SP fall and dividends cut.



I question though to what extent the market priced this in earlier?

This stock is down about a third since its post-GFC high in 2015 so to some extent the market may have priced in the housing situation?


----------



## kahuna1

Hmm ...

Banks, whilst well off their lows, most having bitten the bullet on the royal commission, we I suspect are likely already having seen the lows not so long ago.

Those lows I hope we visit again. NAB at say $1.66 dividend and lets ignore franking .... at $25.85 ish its a yield of close to 6.5%. 

RBA did not cut yesterday. I think yes maybe they do in the future, but not sure if its relevant when 1.5% cash in the bank v 6.5% yield one makes 5% more .... tax free ... every year. whilst I hope to see the shares lower and they WILL go lower when the dividend is paid next week or they go EX .... at $24- that's 7% roughly yield.

Do I think the housing market gets too much worse ? Maybe, but as time ticks on, and prices slip a  bit more, already having let out most of the steam, I suspect the main part of the pain is reduced. 

It is an I wish we see $24 and a bit lower, and I don't see too many issues longer term via the yield. Whist I don't see any dividend growth for some time, the opposing force is an alternative and I see interest rates down at 1.5% or maybe lower for some time. Eventually, a yield of 6.5% will be seen as a good deal and we head back towards $30-.

For now, stripping out the dividend ... we are about to get its trading at $25-  or 6.64% ... already having cut its dividend ratio and LESS expose to residential market than the other big banks. 

Not going to make anything out of this one expecting dividend growth as such, but ... for me, the value has been there and in 2012 the $20 and below was a steal .... trimmed holdings into extreme up moves and here, into she hates me market, happy to add.

Good luck


----------



## Bill M

Was just looking at the chart of NAB, it first hit this current price (Approx $24) around 20 years ago. So for 20 years no growth. But some good SPP's and dividends with franking credits have come through over the time.

I'm a holder, I think if nothing else the divies have been good over this time. Still happy to hold at current levels. (My original buy price)


----------



## kahuna1

Agreed ...

Ex Div and its squished. I agree with no growth ... its paid it out via dividends too high for a long time. As well as that increased capital needed to avoid any GFC event so more put as reserves.

Here, well ... I am still of the opinion that maybe we don't cut rates.  Not until needed. So at $1.66 Div a $24- share price is  6.9% and for me, its a good deal. Franking either way not an issue and tax free 6.9% verses 1.5% or maybe 2% with tax is not even a question. Sure we may head lower and with a lot going on via the USA with a lot of issues from China and trade to Iran and other war efforts, added to this Trump being chased for 20 odd reasons .... maybe we do get it lower.

Happy either way. At $22- and not thinking the dividend is under any threat unless the world ends ... at $22- its 7.55% and NAB is the least exposed to the housing side as well.

Conversely, if it were to rise over time its becomes not so great above $28.50 but that is a long way away.


----------



## kahuna1

Wow ....
All I can say ...
In a mere day, buying into what was extreme weakness and ignoring all on the election side late last week, and in a single day we leap tall buildings.

Not often one sees this, not without some dramatic profit announcement that the sentiment turns and its yet again she loves me.

Still some ways away from a level I hate the stock, for it being too high, or don't like it for the above reasons ... but the extreme slaughter they visited upon this NAB  and WBC ... in particular on Friday and up 9% ... since I must admit being so overweight banks that it even worried me I had missed something, its nice to be a bit lighter and yet again play the same game.

She loves me ... she hates me ...
Liberals and their lower taxing and more likely less to hit the banks yet again, suggests at some stage we see it even higher over time. Say another 5% close to the $28.50 v the $25.92 high today .

That said, I admit, reduced a bit today on this gift and making my portfolio look not like some banking advertisement. Ohhh and free dividends all around plus small profit even on them after the rally. Just switching the entry price so far down ... its amusing ...

Have fun


----------



## sptrawler

WOW, this is going to hurt NAB's bottom line, shonky financial advisers.
Just proves the old saying, yet again, "you can delegate responsibility, but not accountability".

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...ayments-software-changes-20191002-p52wun.html

From the article:
NAB said a key driver for the compensation payments was ongoing adviser service fees charged by self-employed NAB advisers. The bank said it was making allowance for more than a third of the ongoing service fees its advisers charged between 2008 and 2018.

I do hold.


----------



## sptrawler

Well Nab's results are in, a severe drop in earnings, as expected. It looks as though the result is already factored in to the price, as it held up today.
16% drop in dividend to $1.66, still about 6% at these prices.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/nab-full-year-profit-2019-down/11676694?section=business

I do hold.


----------



## Klogg

sptrawler said:


> Well Nab's results are in, a severe drop in earnings, as expected. It looks as though the result is already factored in to the price, as it held up today.
> 16% drop in dividend to $1.66, still about 6% at these prices.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/nab-full-year-profit-2019-down/11676694?section=business
> 
> I do hold.



What's interesting this time is house prices are on the up, but there's no mortgage growth. House prices are going up on small volumes... 
Not sure how the banks tackle this, other than to undo the tightened lending conditions introduced in the past 2 years. And if they do that again, you start to worry about the quality of the mortgage book...

I can't see much upside to this. Rates are basically at their effective lower bound (i.e. can't lower deposit rates), and the quality of the book will be compromised if they lend more freely. Hard to see how dividends hold up from here, even if there is a short term bounce in mortgages.


----------



## sptrawler

Good points Klogg. How they grow their loan books, will in reality, be in line with Australia's economic growth and that just ain't happening ATM.


----------



## tinhat

Klogg said:


> What's interesting this time is house prices are on the up, but there's no mortgage growth. House prices are going up on small volumes...
> Not sure how the banks tackle this, other than to undo the tightened lending conditions introduced in the past 2 years. And if they do that again, you start to worry about the quality of the mortgage book...
> 
> I can't see much upside to this. Rates are basically at their effective lower bound (i.e. can't lower deposit rates), and the quality of the book will be compromised if they lend more freely. Hard to see how dividends hold up from here, even if there is a short term bounce in mortgages.




True, true and with immigration rates coming down we should expect property price growth to be more moderate at least around the mean house price and lower. Not withstanding your points, despite your outlook of dividends falling further, there will continue to be demand for shares in the major banks. I predict their prices will recover somewhat from here and trend sideways for some time. Why? They are high yielding bond proxies for investors seeking tax effective income.


----------



## Sdajii

I chose NAB for the April contest. Pretty obvious reasons. Big crash, possibility of dead cat bounce or stimulus rally. Probably a long shot, but hey, crazy times and NAB is hardly going to go belly up (and if it does, so will we all!).


----------



## sptrawler

NAB dividend 90c, that will help some of the struggling self funded grafters.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200407/pdf/44gsplp2zbn8v4.pdf


----------



## sptrawler

sptrawler said:


> NAB dividend 90c, that will help some of the struggling self funded grafters.
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200407/pdf/44gsplp2zbn8v4.pdf



My mistake, it looks like it was on the capital notes, just my luck excitement overtook me.


----------



## PZ99

It appears they haven't mentioned anything about the divvy. It's a double edged sword this one.

It's all very well for the regulator to say "ditch the divvy" but what are all those self funded retirees going to live on without their divvy ? Selling shares at this level to buy food is a permanent drain on your future income and I don't seem to remember the Govt offering any assistance to low income self funded retirees and it's not as if they can just go back to work.

Loosing the franking refunds is one thing - loosing / deferring the divvy altogether is pretty drastic.


----------



## Belli

The regulator has not specifically stated banks or insurers are required to "ditch the divvy'.

Read the APRA letter which is available on its website.

As usual, people will contort it and apply their own interpretation which may or may not be correct or even the actual outcome.


----------



## PZ99

Belli said:


> The regulator has not specifically stated banks or insurers are *required* to "ditch the divvy'.



I never said they did.


----------



## Sharkman

no they didn't specifically state that they *have* to ditch it, but i took it to be a very strong hint that they are expecting the banks to do so, and won't be too impressed if the divs are not cut by at least half, if not more. it's definitely open to interpretation though.

i personally am not too worried about it from a shareholder's perspective, they would be *retaining* the divvy under such a scenario, it's not as though they are being asked to donate the divvy to relief efforts, or to pay it as a fine (WBC might have to later on however, but that's a separate story).

i get that it could have knock on effects for the broader economy though, if people relying on it for living expenses cut back their spending even further. but as for my own shareholdings - not terribly concerned.


----------



## Belli

The possible alternative canvassed in the APRA letter, after deep, deep discussions with APRA, is not to issue cash but maybe introduce a compulsory DRP and/or buy back the equivalent on market.  Obviously this is "request" is to apply not only to NAB but all ADI's and insurers.

I can see how my post was interpreted as referring to a specific poster but it wasn't meant in that light.  Sorry if it was read in that way.


----------



## sptrawler

PZ99 said:


> It appears they haven't mentioned anything about the divvy. It's a double edged sword this one.
> 
> It's all very well for the regulator to say "ditch the divvy" but what are all those self funded retirees going to live on without their divvy ? Selling shares at this level to buy food is a permanent drain on your future income and I don't seem to remember the Govt offering any assistance to low income self funded retirees and it's not as if they can just go back to work.
> 
> Loosing the franking refunds is one thing - loosing / deferring the divvy altogether is pretty drastic.



Loosing both, would have meant no income and no ability to get any Govt support.
But hey that's o.k, that's why you save instead of spending, all your working life.
It is quite funny when you talk to your ex workmates who are on Govt support and they are raving about the beano they are having. It does make you wonder what the saving was all about, the rows with the missus, accounting for every cent and always buying what you could afford, not what was best, carpeting the house when you sold it, not when you lived in it etc.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Sharkman said:


> nit's not as though they are being asked to donate the divvy to relief efforts




It kind of is that though.

Don't pay the dividend out, because you will need that capital to offer loans you otherwise wouldn't, take hits on mortgages where you normally wouldn't (so you don't have to mark them as impaired), etc.

I'm not for or against, but let's be real, the banks are being asked to retain that capital for the inevitable bonfire they will need to throw it onto.


----------



## PZ99

sptrawler said:


> Loosing both, would have meant no income and no ability to get any Govt support.
> But hey that's o.k, that's why you save instead of spending, all your working life.



The scary thing for many is as we transition to an automated economy where retrenchments put a lot of long term employees out of work they may be forced to invest in high yield stocks to pay their bills if they can't reskill into something else. 

If the divvies are cut then "doing for the greater good" can have many ambivalent meanings; none of which are good for the low income retiree. And as we know from the election - there are many such people.


----------



## sptrawler

PZ99 said:


> The scary thing for many is as we transition to an automated economy where retrenchments put a lot of long term employees out of work they may be forced to invest in high yield stocks to pay their bills if they can't reskill into something else.
> 
> If the divvies are cut then "doing for the greater good" can have many ambivalent meanings; none of which are good for the low income retiree. And as we know from the election - there are many such people.



Don't get me wrong, if I had my time over I still would have done it the same way, I would rather lop myself than live hand to mouth or queue up in centerlink to answer stupid questions and be treated like $^&t.
It is just annoying, when people make out that you don't deserve what you have worked and saved for and try to make out someone who spent all their money is more deserving and special.
I'm not a more deserving person if I go and spend all my money at the casino, to qualify for my franking credits, but apparently that would have been fine, I struggle with that ideology.
A Government hand out is a Government hand out, one person doesn't deserve it more or less than another, except for the rare circumstances that mean a person can't care for themselves as in incapable.
Just my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler

NAB to reduce dividend from 83c to 30c, Ouch, that's gonna hurt .


----------



## PZ99

sptrawler said:


> NAB to reduce dividend from 83c to 30c, Ouch, that's gonna hurt .



It also means their SP will go down by 30c instead of 83c on the day - maybe not all bad.

The Cap raising is the real killer - that's why I invested in banks that had already raised before the crash.


----------



## Sharkman

PZ99 said:


> It also means their SP will go down by 30c instead of 83c on the day - maybe not all bad.
> 
> The Cap raising is the real killer - that's why I invested in banks that had already raised before the crash.




the payout ratio was also significantly dropped to 61%. it just wasn't sustainable (in my view) previously when the divs were at 99c and even at 83c (it was over 100% in the half year prior to the one just reported). i think this cut makes sense, do a bit of a reset to get that ratio back down to sustainable levels, but also don't cut the div completely so those relying on it for income still have _something_. might help slowly build up their franking account for a potential tax friendly buyback once things have recovered (whenever that might be) as well.


----------



## how02

I purchased NAB shares on the 24th. I figure that even if they don't rise in the short term, over the long term they are surely going to go back up. I don't understand why NAB shares aren't trading today though because every other share seems to be trading.


----------



## PZ99

how02 said:


> I purchased NAB shares on the 24th. I figure that even if they don't rise in the short term, over the long term they are surely going to go back up. I don't understand why NAB shares aren't trading today though because every other share seems to be trading.



Shares will stay in trading halt to comply with the regulations...

"For the purposes of Listing Rule 17.1, NAB provides the following information:

1. The trading halt is necessary as NAB expects to make an announcement to the ASX in connection with a proposed equity capital raising comprising an institutional placement (Placement) and share purchase plan.

2. NAB requests that the trading halt continue until the earlier of NAB releasing an announcement in relation to completion of the Placement, or until the open of trading on *Wednesday, 29 April 2020*.

3. NAB expects that the trading halt will be ended by it making an announcement to the ASX in relation to completion of the Placement."


There is a 4th but it's fluff that all companies post _"not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted".  _Can't see the point of that at all._
_


----------



## Bill M

PZ99 said:


> It also means their SP will go down by 30c instead of 83c on the day - maybe not all bad.
> 
> The Cap raising is the real killer - that's why I invested in banks that had already raised before the crash.



These capital raisings happened during the GFC and this one isn't much different. I regard this as one of those rare opportunities to top up on a good company at a discounted rate. I did it during the GFC and I will be doing now. I'll take my full 30K allocation thank you very much. Here is a bit more info from the announcement made this morning, my bolds:
---
The Placement Shares are expected to settle on Thursday 30 April 2020, and be issued and commence trading on ASX on Friday 1 May 2020. Placement Shares will rank equally with existing NAB ordinary shares but will not be entitled to receive the 2020 interim dividend. *Details of the SPP Under the SPP, NAB will offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to apply for up to A$30,000 of new fully paid NAB ordinary shares (SPP Shares), without incurring brokerage, commissions or other transaction costs.* “Eligible shareholders” will be registered NAB shareholders, as at 7.00pm on Friday 24 April 2020 (Melbourne time), who have a registered address and are resident in Australia or New Zealand, and are not in the United States or acting for the account or benefit of any person in the United States or otherwise excluded from participating. The Issue Price of SPP Shares will be the lower of: - the Placement Price, being A$14.15; and - the VWAP5 of NAB ordinary shares traded on ASX during the five trading days up to, and including, the SPP closing date (expected to be Friday 22 May 2020) less a 2% discount, rounded down to the nearest cent.
---


----------



## how02

Bill M said:


> These capital raisings happened during the GFC and this one isn't much different. I regard this as one of those rare opportunities to top up on a good company at a discounted rate. I did it during the GFC and I will be doing now. I'll take my full 30K allocation thank you very much. Here is a bit more info from the announcement made this morning, my bolds:
> 
> ---




This was my thinking as well. The current stock price for NAB is the lowest it has ever been in history, even lower than the global financial crisis. Looking at 2008 it recovered very quickly, this time around won't be any different in my opinion.


----------



## Bill M

how02 said:


> This was my thinking as well. The current stock price for NAB is the lowest it has ever been in history, even lower than the global financial crisis. Looking at 2008 it recovered very quickly, this time around won't be any different in my opinion.



Let me just say this without detracting from the thread too much. Every single capital raising I took up during the GFC (about 6 of them) turned out to be profitable and they were not only the banks. I think the best at the time was CBA at $26. Not saying this will be the same but I will be taking up my allotment.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

PZ99 said:


> Shares will stay in trading halt to comply with the regulations...
> 
> "For the purposes of Listing Rule 17.1, NAB provides the following information:
> 
> There is a 4th but it's fluff that all companies post _"not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted".  _Can't see the point of that at all.



lawyers


----------



## PZ99

Bill M said:


> These capital raisings happened during the GFC and this one isn't much different. I regard this as one of those rare opportunities to top up on a good company at a discounted rate. I did it during the GFC and I will be doing now. I'll take my full 30K allocation thank you very much. Here is a bit more info from the announcement made this morning, my bolds:
> ---
> The Placement Shares are expected to settle on Thursday 30 April 2020, and be issued and commence trading on ASX on Friday 1 May 2020. Placement Shares will rank equally with existing NAB ordinary shares but will not be entitled to receive the 2020 interim dividend. *Details of the SPP Under the SPP, NAB will offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to apply for up to A$30,000 of new fully paid NAB ordinary shares (SPP Shares), without incurring brokerage, commissions or other transaction costs.* “Eligible shareholders” will be registered NAB shareholders, as at 7.00pm on Friday 24 April 2020 (Melbourne time), who have a registered address and are resident in Australia or New Zealand, and are not in the United States or acting for the account or benefit of any person in the United States or otherwise excluded from participating. The Issue Price of SPP Shares will be the lower of: - the Placement Price, being A$14.15; and - the VWAP5 of NAB ordinary shares traded on ASX during the five trading days up to, and including, the SPP closing date (expected to be Friday 22 May 2020) less a 2% discount, rounded down to the nearest cent.
> ---



No worries at all Bill. I frequently find with many companies I can just buy shares on market for less than the SPP so if NAB goes under $14 later on I'll stick a few pennies in


----------



## Sharkman

Bill M said:


> These capital raisings happened during the GFC and this one isn't much different. I regard this as one of those rare opportunities to top up on a good company at a discounted rate. I did it during the GFC and I will be doing now. I'll take my full 30K allocation thank you very much.




i'm leaning towards doing the same, just not willing to fully commit to it yet as it would go against my overall macro strategy of holding Aust based positions constant and only putting new funds into international equities. probably will just treat it as basically a free call option for now and see what happens over the next few weeks until "expiry".


----------



## Knobby22

Yea, Nah.


----------



## cutz

That dividend cut is going to be painful !!

I normally participate in capital raisings to avoid dilution but not this time, I'm with @Sharkman on this one.


----------



## Sharkman

cutz said:


> That dividend cut is going to be painful !!
> 
> I normally participate in capital raisings to avoid dilution but not this time, I'm with @Sharkman on this one.




you wouldn't be buying it for the upcoming div though (the SPP units aren't entitled to it anyway), or even the next couple of divs, you'd be buying it for a potential long term recovery, and if we do end up getting one, then this would turn out to be a knockdown price. but who knows when (or if) that'll happen at this point.

what i'm trying to figure out for myself is once things do turn around globally, will i get better returns from NAB or better returns from international equities? given my view that our economy is turning into more and more of a one trick pony (mining) with every passing year, whilst other developed nations are seemingly going in the opposite direction and ramping up their secondary and tertiary sectors, would i be better off staying true to my overall macro strategy and give this a miss, to keep the 30K available for investing in international index ETFs?

one approach i considered for the WBC raising a few months ago (and will consider again here) is to subscribe to the SPP, then after taking delivery immediately turn around and sell ATM covered calls over the SPP units until they get called away. obviously no trading in NAB today, but i generally find ANZ options to be the closest approximation for NAB, and the 1 month ATMs for those were trading at around 50 IV. at that sort of IV 1m ATM is ~5.5% of the stock price, not bad compensation for the risk of winding up being "stuck" with those SPP units for longer than one would like.


----------



## cutz

Sharkman said:


> you wouldn't be buying it for the upcoming div though (the SPP units aren't entitled to it anyway), or even the next couple of divs, you'd be buying it for a potential long term recovery, and if we do end up getting one, then this would turn out to be a knockdown price. but who knows when (or if) that'll happen at this point.




As much as I hate to admit I think any recovery is a long way away, especially for the banks, I really hope I'm wrong. Any spare cash I can scrape together I'll prob invest in the US using buy write or maybe not write strategies.


----------



## how02

cutz said:


> As much as I hate to admit I think any recovery is a long way away, especially for the banks, I really hope I'm wrong. Any spare cash I can scrape together I'll prob invest in the US using buy write or maybe not write strategies.




I agree, I'm not expecting short term gains either but if you choose to invest now and have patience then it will be very rewarding.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Sharkman said:


> what i'm trying to figure out for myself is once things do turn around globally, will i get better returns from NAB or better returns from international equities? given my view that our economy is turning into more and more of a one trick pony (mining) with every passing year, whilst other developed nations are seemingly going in the opposite direction and ramping up their secondary and tertiary sectors, would i be better off staying true to my overall macro strategy and give this a miss, to keep the 30K available for investing in international index ETFs?




Outside the US, international equities haven't really done that much differently from AU.

VAS and VEU were created on the same day, quite close to GFC lows and VAS annual total return is 6.83%pa while VEU is 6.81%pa, according to the most recent Vanguard factsheets.

Even in the US, I think you would find that the story is really about US large cap growth stocks, mostly big tech. The annual returns of US large cap value indices, which have a sector composition closer to our own have similar returns to VAS.

Underperformance of our index in the post GFC period has more to do with value performance than country performance IMHO and that is largely a function of sector composition. Value underperformance historically has been largely driven by flattening yield curves and declining growth/inflation expectations and that is what we have seen post GFC.

My advice would to be cognizant of potential for recency bias. US large cap growth stocks are at extreme spreads (both price and valuation wise) to value, and our index composition mirrors value much more closely than growth. If those spreads mean revert, you might find yourself on the wrong side of stuff. That doesn't necessarily mean value goes up but potentially that it goes down a lot less than growth.






If there's any return to inflation, you'd expect commodities (which are unloved and at cyclical lows mostly) would do well. If the global yield curve steepens, that is generally a beneficial environment for value and certainly financials who derive their NIM from the curve spread.

Not to mention AUD factors. As you said "once things do turn around globally", the AUD which is deeply cyclical could rally hard and crush unhedged global returns. AUD performance post GFC was so strong that US and EU indexes priced in AUD didn't bottom post GFC until 2011-2012. You can also see below that SPX in AUD performed quite poorly in the 2002-2007 commodities boom.

SPX priced in AUD:


----------



## Sharkman

InsvestoBoy said:


> If there's any return to inflation, you'd expect commodities (which are unloved and at cyclical lows mostly) would do well. If the global yield curve steepens, that is generally a beneficial environment for value and certainly financials who derive their NIM from the curve spread.
> 
> Not to mention AUD factors. As you said "once things do turn around globally", the AUD which is deeply cyclical could rally hard and crush unhedged global returns. AUD performance post GFC was so strong that US and EU indexes priced in AUD didn't bottom post GFC until 2011-2012. You can also see below that SPX in AUD performed quite poorly in the 2002-2007 commodities boom.




all good points. but as is the case with everything, there are some if's. and when it comes to ASX index investing, it seems to me that those if's tend to lead back to one thing - commodities. these days, commodities doing well is getting close to becoming a hard requirement for our broader economy and index to do well in my view. other developed nations, particularly the US (but with the possible exception of Canada and NZ) don't seem to have such a heavy reliance on one sector.

the SPX in AUD terms did perform poorly in the commodities boom - very valid point. but there it is again - commodities - our pony's one trick. i'm not going to say that was a once in a lifetime boom, i don't know that. it could happen again. but i'm a bit edgy with pinning the hopes of my portfolio on a scenario where a lot of things probably need to go right.

i'm not avoiding local investing completely. as you say, it's cyclical and a return to global growth should see it outperform. but who knows how long we might be waiting for the cycle to turn. in the meantime, am i comfortable with ~33% of my portfolio as Aust exposure? sure. 50%? getting a bit too high, but ok. 75-100%? no way Jose! that's an awful lot of eggs in that basket, too many for my liking. YMMV.


----------



## Klogg

Belli said:


> The possible alternative canvassed in the APRA letter, after deep, deep discussions with APRA, is not to issue cash but maybe introduce a compulsory DRP and/or buy back the equivalent on market.  Obviously this is "request" is to apply not only to NAB but all ADI's and insurers.
> 
> I can see how my post was interpreted as referring to a specific poster but it wasn't meant in that light.  Sorry if it was read in that way.



When the regulator 'requests' something, you either comply, or you're eventually forced to do it.

NAB divi down to 30c. They've had years of tailwinds, but will now face NIM pressures, in addition to increasing bad debts (rates can't really go lower).

As for assuming banks are the only place retirees can get a steady income - what about the other thousands of listed companies?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Sharkman said:


> all good points. but as is the case with everything, there are some if's. and when it comes to ASX index investing, it seems to me that those if's tend to lead back to one thing - commodities. these days, commodities doing well is getting close to becoming a hard requirement for our broader economy and index to do well in my view. other developed nations, particularly the US (but with the possible exception of Canada and NZ) don't seem to have such a heavy reliance on one sector.




I don't agree that commodities doing well is a hard requirement at all and I think you might be mixing up cause and effect there.

The index is heavily skewed towards cyclicals (Materials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials). Cyclicals do well when commodities do well, but it isn't the commodities that are driving that, it's just a beneficiary like the others. Mining after all is just 6% of our GDP.

That said, I do agree the economic complexity of Australia is very low (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-is-rich-dumb-and-getting-dumber-20191007-p52y8i). But at the same time, it doesn't seem to have mattered for performance vs index like VEU, for all the extra economic complexity of the economies exposed to VEU, performance was essentially identical to ours in the post GFC period. Hence my point: sector composition (which drives factor performance), not economies. And the sector composition you are getting, ex US, is pretty much the same.



> the SPX in AUD terms did perform poorly in the commodities boom - very valid point. but there it is again - commodities - our pony's one trick.




Nah, I am not talking about commodities, I am talking about AUD factors.


----------



## Bill M

I just took a look at the long term chart of NAB. It first hit these levels of around $15 a share back in 1997, some 23 years ago. It's been an amazing roller coaster ride in between.

Don't forget the SPP plan folks. Money has to be on by 22nd May 2020 if you are going to do it.


----------



## Knobby22

Bill M said:


> I just took a look at the long term chart of NAB. It first hit these levels of around $15 a share back in 1997, some 23 years ago. It's been an amazing roller coaster ride in between.
> 
> Don't forget the SPP plan folks. Money has to be on by 22nd May 2020 if you are going to do it.




There is support for all the banks at the present levels.
And the other good thing is that they are primarily in the Australian market, and luckily for NAB in particular, have no businesses such as in the UK for instance.
Still, I am a bit nonplussed. I am sensing an opportunity but am still struggling to be interested.


----------



## Bill M

The SPP closes tomorrow. NAB closed at $15.60 yesterday. Today it's looking like another up day so the NAB share price might rise as well.

This is what you need to consider, the SPP price per stock is $14.15. The current share price is $15.60. You are getting a great discount. Now things can melt down between now and the allocation date so it is not without it's risks but I am going to take my full allocation. Good luck with your choices.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

And, the uptake details are out


NAB closed the institutional raising and has expanded the retail component of the issue from $500m to $1.25bn.


> Indeed the bank said “the strong interest required a scaling back”, which means that those 155,000 shareholders who put down on average $18,500 each for the new shares will not get all they asked for.
> 
> There is a range of issues around the ultimate fairness of the wider capital raising plan launched by the bank and the irony of seeking new money while paying a dividend at the same time.





> In short, the bank made sure it got the money it needed first by going to institutional investors - even though 48 per cent of the register is “retail”.
> 
> There is also room to argue the bank did not get so much a strong response as a partial response from its vast shareholder base. It attracted a segment that was willing to speculate they might finally make some money from the raising which was priced at $14.15 - the stock is now $17.94


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

If you want to be in NAB you could do worse than NABHA which sits ahead of NAB when it eventually goes a-up. 

I've been buying them in the low $80's mid $70's for years now, holding them for 3-4 years more as a proxy for cash type security and then selling them when they get in to the mid $90's. I bought some again quite recently. They are $100 securities and pay 1.5% above the cash rate at $100 unfranked and so far have not missed a payment. Only problem is you have to have a big bet and hold until they move up again.             

gg


----------



## Bill M

Dona Ferentes said:


> And, the uptake details are out
> 
> 
> NAB closed the institutional raising and has expanded the retail component of the issue from $500m to $1.25bn.



This was a disappointing capital raising for us shareholders. I put in for 30K worth and all they allotted me was 279 shares with a value of $3,947.85. I wish they could have given us an opportunity just like the institutional investors.


----------



## qldfrog

Bill M said:


> This was a disappointing capital raising for us shareholders. I put in for 30K worth and all they allotted me was 279 shares with a value of $3,947.85. I wish they could have given us an opportunity just like the institutional investors.



Bill, you are far from the 0.001pc, you will have to do with the pittance as we do all;-)


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If you want to be in NAB you could do worse than NABHA which sits ahead of NAB when it eventually goes a-up.
> 
> I've been buying them in the low $80's mid $70's for years now, holding them for 3-4 years more as a proxy for cash type security and then selling them when they get in to the mid $90's. I bought some again quite recently. They are $100 securities and pay 1.5% above the cash rate at $100 unfranked



the fixed rate NABHA pays has been a winner as floating rates come down. Technically it's open ended but I thought it was soon to be paid back @ face value. And as a subordinated debt, it's higher than the new Capital Notes.


----------



## qldfrog

Nabha has indeed been good to me too.fully out


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Bill M said:


> This was a disappointing capital raising for us shareholders. I put in for 30K worth and all they allotted me was 279 shares with a value of $3,947.85. I wish they could have given us an opportunity just like the institutional investors.



It would be a nice arrangement if a formula could be arrived at, whereby new shares are allocated to reflect *Time Held *as well as *number of shares,* in any entitlement consideration. This would reweight allocation towards long term holders.


----------



## Bill M

Dona Ferentes said:


> Technically it's open ended but I thought it was soon to be paid back @ face value.



They have been saying that for years. Held them for quite a few years and rumours were going around that they would convert 5 years or more ago, never happened. I got fed up and in the end sold out at square. From memory they pay 1.25% + the 3 Month BBSR which at today's rate would equal about 1.35%. It isn't that flash an income even after the current 12% discount to face value. Buying at $56 during the GFC would have given you some nice returns but at $88 no thanks.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> It would be a nice arrangement if a formula could be arrived at, whereby new shares are allocated to reflect *Time Held *as well as *number of shares,* in any entitlement consideration. This would reweight allocation towards long term holders.



To be honest I find it hard to wrap my head around when these will be redeemed at face value. 

I guess when the volume and price goes up dramatically. (when the bloke at NAB who makes the decision let's his granny know.)

Then a few days later he will let everyone else know.

Why I follow chart. NABHA

gg


----------



## PZ99

Bill M said:


> This was a disappointing capital raising for us shareholders. I put in for 30K worth and all they allotted me was 279 shares with a value of $3,947.85. I wish they could have given us an opportunity just like the institutional investors.



I'm assuming the 279 shares is based on how many shares you hold ?

Bit unfair for them to restrict you to just a fraction otherwise.


----------



## Bill M

PZ99 said:


> Bit unfair for them to restrict you to just a fraction otherwise.



Yes it was because there was no real formula or guarantees but they put it out there for you to buy up to 30K worth. (I only had 1000 NAB shares). Oh well they are holding my 26k refund right now, earning interest for themselves, still haven't got it back.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

PZ99 said:


> I'm assuming the 279 shares is based on how many shares you hold ?
> 
> Bit unfair for them to restrict you to just a fraction otherwise.



from the NAB website,

_How was the scaleback calculated? _


> NAB received valid SPP applications for a total value of A$2.9 billion. Given the strong support, NAB decided to increase the SPP size by A$750 million above its original target of A$500 million, which required a scale back to A$1.25 billion. As anticipated in NAB’s announcement on 4 May 2020, the scale back was applied having regard to the pro rata shareholding of Eligible Shareholders who applied for SPP Shares (as at 7.00pm on Friday 24 April 2020), subject to a minimum allocation of 176 SPP Shares (being A$2,490.40 worth of SPP Shares). Eligible Shareholders who applied for A$2,500 or less of SPP Shares will not be subject to any scale back and will receive the amount they applied for, rounded down to reflect a whole number of SPP Shares.


----------



## sptrawler

Bill M said:


> Yes it was because there was no real formula or guarantees but they put it out there for you to buy up to 30K worth. (I only had 1000 NAB shares). Oh well they are holding my 26k refund right now, earning interest for themselves, still haven't got it back.



I didn't apply, as you say they hold onto you dough for quite a long time and usually a major capital raising is scaled back massively well every one I have applied for has.
The other thing that usually happens, but didn't this time, is the share price normally falls to the issue price or thereabouts.


----------



## Sharkman

Bill M said:


> This was a disappointing capital raising for us shareholders. I put in for 30K worth and all they allotted me was 279 shares with a value of $3,947.85. I wish they could have given us an opportunity just like the institutional investors.




apologies in advance for this post, you'll probably hate me now, but i was one of the lucky ones who got the full allocation (2,120 units).

wonder how many orders for 21 contracts we'll see on the call side tomorrow. i know there'll be at least one... mine


----------



## sptrawler

Sharkman said:


> apologies in advance for this post, you'll probably hate me now, but i was one of the lucky ones who got the full allocation (2,120 units).
> 
> wonder how many orders for 21 contracts we'll see on the call side tomorrow. i know there'll be at least one... mine



How did you manage that? Sophisticated investor?


----------



## Sharkman

sptrawler said:


> How did you manage that? Sophisticated investor?




hah no, i would be anything BUT sophisticated!

i have a decent sized holding, but i wouldn't have thought i have anywhere near enough to not suffer any scaleback at all. i suspect it's not so much the holding size but more to do with my units being held in a nominee account. so it's possible that the broker was permitted to obtain allocations based on the holdings of their entire client base, but after the pro rata scaleback was applied, if there were any customers who didn't accept the offer, they could allocate the units that would have gone to those customers towards the customers who did accept, up to $30K max per client account. perhaps i have cutz to thank in that case, as maybe part of his allocation went to me instead!

my parents have a larger holding than i do, but theirs is in a CHESS account rather than a nominee account. next time i call them i might check if they got the full allocation too (though i'm not sure if they actually went for the SPP or not). if they didn't get the full allocation, then that would support this theory.


----------



## Bill M

Sharkman said:


> apologies in advance for this post, you'll probably hate me now, but i was one of the lucky ones who got the full allocation (2,120 units).
> 
> wonder how many orders for 21 contracts we'll see on the call side tomorrow. i know there'll be at least one... mine



Nup, all good and very happy someone got some decent allocation. And what you are planning to do today was what I was hoping to do on a smaller scale as well. Good on ya!


----------



## Ferret

Sharkman said:


> orders for 21 contracts we'll see on the call side




Hi Sharkman and congratulations.  

I assume you are saying you plan to sell some, but can you please educate me and explain what the quoted phrase means?


----------



## Sharkman

Ferret said:


> Hi Sharkman and congratulations.
> 
> I assume you are saying you plan to sell some, but can you please educate me and explain what the quoted phrase means?




no problem. it's referring to those who wanted to participate in the SPP because they felt it was at a good price but don't want to increase their long term exposure to the stock (like me) looking to get rid of the extra units by having them called away instead of selling the units directly, ie. selling covered call options where the SPP units become the collateral.

1 contract is generally over 100 units of underlying (but not always eg. BHP Jun series is 104), so 21 contracts would basically cover the whole SPP allocation for those who were fully allocated (2,120 units as written above). i'm just curious as to how many other investors are looking to do the same thing so i'll be taking a bit of a peek down the option chains when the market opens to see how many sell orders for 21 call contracts i can spot (other than my own of course!)

the main benefit is you get to collect a fair amount of premium on top of what looks like (so far) decent cap gains on the SPP units, especially with volatilities at heightened levels pushing up the option prices. i estimated ~5.5% of the stock price for a 1 month expiry in an earlier post above, vols today aren't quite as high as the 50 or so that they were at the time due to the astonishing rally we've had (vols tend to drop when the market goes up), but at high 20s they are still well above historical norms, which for NAB tends to float in the 14-16 range.


----------



## Sharkman

very early in the session so far, MMs haven't even started posting their spreads yet but can see a couple of orders on deep ITM Jul calls for 8 and 10 contracts, wonder if those are SPP allocation units and they want the best chance they can get to ensure it gets called away. was planning to go ATM/slight ITM myself to collect more decay, but will see what happens when the MMs start showing spreads and the orders start flooding in.


----------



## Ferret

Thanks Sharkman.  Always good to learn something!


----------



## Sharkman

Ferret said:


> Thanks Sharkman.  Always good to learn something!




not at all. though if you are planning on doing something similar in the future, don't do what i just did - try to nip off too much of the spread when it's already at a price you're very happy with - they wouldn't fill me at the mid and i refused to budge.

i eventually did end up getting a good fill (MM even crossed to my side of the spread - 0.78 into a 0.70/0.83) but due to the post open pullback, had to go one strike lower as i wanted slight ITM, since i do kinda want these things called away.

and naturally, it's now rallying again. i mean it's all house money at this point given the cost base of those units is 14.15, but you still want the best outcome that you can get, and i flubbed that one rather badly because of my greed.


----------



## Bill M

Got my refund today.


----------



## Sharkman

Bill M said:


> Got my refund today.




looks like IB aren't going to give me my 2 bucks back (14.15 * 2,120 = 29,998) as i can't see an entry for it anywhere on my portfolio statement. can't be bothered chasing up $2, happy to donate it to the broker for getting me the full SPP allocation, and simply add it to the cost base of those SPP units.


----------



## Ferret

Sharkman said:


> looks like IB aren't going to give me my 2 bucks back (14.15 * 2,120 = 29,998) as i can't see an entry for it anywhere on my portfolio statement. can't be bothered chasing up $2, happy to donate it to the broker for getting me the full SPP allocation, and simply add it to the cost base of those SPP units.




I had this at the bottom of my allocation statement:


----------



## frugal.rock

Ferret said:


> I had this at the bottom of my allocation statement:
> View attachment 104549



Since when is it legal to not provide a tax invoice without first asking?
Isn't it a case of an invoice is required by law,  and permission needed to NOT provide one?
Aye carumba.


----------



## Sharkman

Ferret said:


> I had this at the bottom of my allocation statement:
> View attachment 104549




thanks, i didn't actually notice that, i just scanned the portfolio statement for some "miscellaneous charges" type entry for $2 and didn't find any. looks like i'll have to ask for that receipt then, if that's what IB is doing as well. not because i particularly care about the $2, but because i hold NAB in a corporate trust structure i have to account for each and every cashflow that goes in and out in the yearly reporting, i probably can't just tack it on to the cost base if that's the case.



frugal.rock said:


> Since when is it legal to not provide a tax invoice without first asking?
> Isn't it a case of an invoice is required by law,  and permission needed to NOT provide one?
> Aye carumba.




no, donor recipients are not required to:
https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/...n-claim/Other-deductions/Gifts-and-donations/


----------



## Kerway

At the time of the recent $3billion placement, my investment company owned 57 000 NAB shares, which I had paid more than a million dollars for, pre covid.

It seems grossly unfair that I was only allowed to purchase $30 000 worth of shares at the placement price of $14.15 whilst a mate who had a couple of hundred shares could buy just as many and institutions were allocated the lions share of the placement (basis undisclosed) and must have benefited to the tune of millions of dollars.

Surely a more equitable basis would be to treat all shareholders equally and allocate shares on a pro rata basis? Where is the loyalty? Where is the transparency? Are some of those involved in this issue scratching the backs of their friends as everyone knew the issue price was incredibly low?


----------



## Sharkman

Ferret said:


> I had this at the bottom of my allocation statement:
> View attachment 104549




could i ask if you got your allocation thru a CHESS holding, or thru IB?

i couldn't find any such statement on any of my IB reports. the way IB ran the applications was, we made our election, they deducted the cash and put x "NAB.SPP" units, each worth $1, onto our portfolio. then on the day the new units were issued, they cancelled out the "NAB.SPP" position and added the actual NAB units to our portfolios.

so for me all i see is a couple of entries under corporate actions on the broker statement:
-30,000 NAB.SPP
+2,120 NAB.AX

given that is all that's on my broker statements, i'm guessing it should be ok for tax purposes to declare that my 2,120 units have a cost base of $30K? as i really can't be bothered kicking up a fuss over $2 - but it wouldn't surprise me if the ATO did. anyone else get their SPP allocation thru IB?


----------



## Ferret

Sharkman said:


> could i ask if you got your allocation thru a CHESS holding, or thru IB?




I got mine through a CHESS holding.  Mine are in a trust too, but I'm not going to bother chasing the $2 receipt.


----------



## Sharkman

Ferret said:


> I got mine through a CHESS holding.  Mine are in a trust too, but I'm not going to bother chasing the $2 receipt.




yeah i don't want to bother chasing up $2 either, but i'm not sure i have a choice. how are you planning on handling it for tax purposes? as a trust, aren't you required to lodge a financial statement along with your tax return every year, ensuring that assets - liabilities and net equity balance out? so the $2 has to be accounted for somewhere?

i was just going to add it to my cost base and say the 2,120 units cost $30K exactly. would hope the ATO won't kick up a fuss over $2, but you just never know.


----------



## Ferret

Sharkman said:


> i was just going to add it to my cost base and say the 2,120 units cost $30K exactly.




That's what I was going to do.


----------



## rnr

Has NAB found a second level of support (ref. to green ellipse) and ready to make a move higher?
[I do not hold]


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> To be honest I find it hard to wrap my head around when these will be redeemed at face value.
> 
> I guess when the volume and price goes up dramatically. (when the bloke at NAB who makes the decision let's his granny know.)
> 
> Then a few days later he will let everyone else know.
> 
> Why I follow chart. NABHA
> 
> gg



Well I reckon the guy at NAB's granny has been trading up on NABHA. They will be redeemed hopefully once the old darl is clear tax wise, though she is probably unaware she holds them. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well I reckon the guy at NAB's granny has been trading up on NABHA. They will be redeemed hopefully once the old darl is clear tax wise, though she is probably unaware she holds them.
> 
> gg
> 
> View attachment 112811



Christopher Joye has a few words on NABHA and other hybrids, in the AFR

_"...expect NAB to announce a new hybrid in November to replace its $1.72 billion NABPB security, which matures in December....._
_
In wonderful news for holders of the mystery-wrapped-in-a-riddle that is the perpetual, $2 billion *NABHA *security, NAB has announced that it will go to its AGM seeking approval to repay it. The likely date will be in February 2021, helpfully providing an extra $2 billion of cash to holders that will be looking for a home at the same time Westpac and Macquarie will issue new hybrids to refinance existing securities.
_
_In October 2018 this column claimed that “the pressure to replace NABHA intensifies in 2021 when it will only contribute 31.1 per cent to first-loss capital, and much more in 2022 when NABHA's capital share evaporates entirely”. “NAB does have an incentive to replace NABHA with a new hybrid by the end of 2021, which is a year in which it notably has no maturities.” Yet since NAB is currently carrying a lot of excess capital after raising $4 billion of equity in May 2020, it does not now have to replace NABHA... "_


----------



## sptrawler

NAB half year report, including a 60c dividend, that will take a bit of stress off some. 👍 









						‘Very strong’: NAB chief says regions fuelling loan growth
					

As farmers benefit from an end to the drought and city dwellers opt for a tree change, NAB is seeing record growth in demand for business loans across regional Australia.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
The National Australia Bank will pay shareholders an interim dividend of 60¢ per share, after it reported cash earnings of $3.3 billion for the half, a 48.1 per cent jump on the previous period.

The big four bank’s revenue increased by 1 per cent over the six months to March 31 reflecting improved markets income, but its net interest margin – a key measure of profitability – declined by 4 basis points due to historically low interest rates.
NAB followed the other major banks in writing back its allowance for bad loans, reducing the credit provision by $128 million – compared to an increase of $1.2 billion in the corresponding period last year.

“Risks do remain,” Mr McEwan said. “The recovery is not even, and some customers such as those in international travel and hospitality, particularly in CBD areas, still face significant challenges.”

NAB also reported its expenses decreased by 18.6 per cent, as the bank pursues a strategy to cut costs and simplify operations.

In a breakdown of the bank’s key divisions, NAB reported cash earnings in its flagship business bank declined by 10.3 per cent to $1.2 billion over the past 12 months due to additional resources allocated to supporting customers through COVID-19.

In contrast, NAB’s personal banking arm saw cash earnings increase by 14.1 per cent to $859 million due to reduced credit impairment charges and low funding costs.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

sptrawler said:


> NAB half year report, including a 60c dividend, that will take a bit of stress off some. 👍
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘Very strong’: NAB chief says regions fuelling loan growth
> 
> 
> As farmers benefit from an end to the drought and city dwellers opt for a tree change, NAB is seeing record growth in demand for business loans across regional Australia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.smh.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> The National Australia Bank will pay shareholders an interim dividend of 60¢ per share, after it reported cash earnings of $3.3 billion for the half, a 48.1 per cent jump on the previous period.



and a bit like the ANZ result : _For the ANZ it looks like a case of ‘sell on the news’ and take profits after the shares dipped yesterday in the wake of a solid recovery in interim earnings and a higher dividend._


----------



## Dona Ferentes

.... in May 2020, NAB reduced its dividend and undertook a Share Purchase Plan* at $14.15 *to build up its capital:



> ".._... in light of the uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These actions are intended to provide NAB with sufficient capacity to continue supporting our customers through the challenging times ahead, as well as increasing NAB’s capital level to assist with managing through a range of possible scenarios, including a prolonged and severe economic downturn._




Now, with hindsight, it is easy to be critical and overlook that the outlook was bleak, and no doubt APRA was on the phone, but banking is so good now that NAB is contemplating a share buyback (with the *SP around $26*). This week , CEO Ross McEwan was showing a touch of remorse when he said this:


> _"At the time I said we wanted to be a very safe bank, that's the positioning I took. If I got it wrong, well I'm happy to be in a very strong position now going forward for customers and shareholders."_




And NAB increased the size of the SPP from its original target of $500 million to $1.25 billion during the offer period. Sell low, buy High!! 
Nice one for the little guys


----------



## sptrawler

Sounds like NAB are trying to avoid a fine like WBC copped for money laundering, best of luck IMO. Oh well there goes next years dividend probably.  😢








						NAB’s secretive ‘Project Apollo’ to fix financial crime loopholes
					

NAB has launched an internal program to overhaul its approach to monitoring suspicious customers after a series of internal audits were knocked back by AUSTRAC.




					www.theage.com.au
				



From the article:
Among other things, Apollo involves the examinination of hundreds of thousands of customer profiles that have been identified as problematic, with the aims of deleting duplicate accounts and debanking high-risk customers, according to multiple sources familiar with the project who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak about it publicly.

The Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) sent a letter to NAB last Friday to notify the bank of an escalation of its investigation into potential serious and ongoing non-compliance with anti-money laundering laws.

Sources familiar with Project Apollo described it as a “huge” remediation project. “The head count is massive, it takes up at least a third of the current financial crime workforce at the moment,” one source said.

Multiple sources have also said NAB’s core technology systems are over two decades old, meaning analysts often have to manually trawl through years worth of bank statements to identify suspicious transactions once a customer has been reclassified as high-risk.


----------



## sptrawler

NAB making a play for Citi Bank's credit card business. Sounds like it is a similar price to what it got for MLC, when it was sold to IOOF.
Obviously they think the BNPL model, isn't an issue.








						NAB buys Citi's Australian retail bank for $1.2 billion
					

National Australia Bank is looking expand its share of the credit card market by buying Citi’s Australian retail banking arm.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article.
National Australia Bank is looking to expand its share of the credit card market by buying Citi’s Australian retail banking arm for at least $1.2 billion.

In a deal that is set to attract scrutiny from the competition watchdog, NAB on Monday said it would become Australia’s second largest credit card lender through the acquisition of Citi’s retail business, which also includes mortgages and deposits.


----------



## sptrawler

NAB trading update.








						Loan repayments a struggle for some
					

National Australia Bank has delivered what has been described as a “solid” quarterly trading update, showing some customers are still struggling with loan repayments.




					www.news.com.au
				




The big four bank booked a $1.65bn unaudited statutory net profit for the June quarter, up from $1.5bn for the same period last year when the Covid-19 pandemic was taking hold and it was scrambling to accommodate loan deferrals.
This year, there were “significantly better credit impairment outcomes”, chief executive Ross McEwan said.
But he noted the health crisis and lockdowns were creating uncertainty and challenges for some customers.
While the ratio of loans more than 90 days overdue and gross impaired assets to gross loans and acceptances declined 10 basis points to 1.13 per cent, that’s up from 1.06 per cent for the same quarter in 2020.
NAB also reported a 2 per cent rise in housing lending during the quarter, while small-to-medium enterprise business lending rose 4.3 per cent.


----------



## sptrawler

NAB has big profit increase, doubles dividend 🥳. Still got a way to go, but the signs are good IDH.









						NAB boss defends flexible fossil fuel financing
					

The ‘big four’ bank says it won’t offer financing for new oil and gas projects, unless the government says the project is crucial to national energy security.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
National Australia Bank has doubled its final dividend after reporting soaring full-year cash earnings alongside the release of a new oil and gas policy that aims to phase out exposure to the sector over the next two decades.

Full-year cash earnings increased 76.8 per cent to $6.5 billion in the year to September 30, which chief executive Ross McEwan said showed the bank “navigated a challenging environment” during COVID-19 while delivering better services for customers.

NAB shareholders will receive a final dividend of 67 cents per share, up from 30 cents paid last year, taking the full-year dividend to $1.27 a share, the bank said in a statement on Tuesday morning.

While NAB’s revenue declined by 2.2 per cent over the past financial year, the bank reported 6 per cent overall growth in loans, with a 7 per cent rise in business lending and 4 per cent in mortgage growth in what Mr McEwan said cemented the bank’s leading position in business lending.
While overall cash earnings in NAB’s business bank was flat at 0.3 per cent across the year, it reported a 14.2 per cent uptick in agricultural business loans. Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia said it was pleasing to see NAB had retained its leading market share in this division.
NAB’s full-year results were largely in line with analyst expectations. Evans and Partners analyst Matt Wilson said it was a “very solid result”, praising NAB’s strong balance sheet and Mr McEwan’s “reasonably positive” outlook comments. “Things are under control at NAB.”

NAB said it had capped its oil and gas exposure at $US2.4 billion ($3.2 billion), and will reduce this stake over the next two decades. As part of the new policy, NAB said it will only consider directly financing gas extraction projects in Australia “where it plays a role in underpinning national energy security”.

Mr McEwan said NAB had already sought to reduce its exposure to Australia’s fossil fuel sector, with 71 per cent of NAB’s domestic lending now in renewables, compared to 29 per cent in oil, gas and coal.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

NAB shares have soared to their highest level in *three-and-a-half years** on Wednesday, rebounding from a small loss in the previous session.

The company’s shares were trading 4.6 per cent higher at $30.23, its highest price since March 2018.

The bank said it was lending more, after working out how to approve mortgage applications quickly and deepening relationships with key business customers.

It beat profit expectations and doubled its final dividend following a strong rebound in performance during the 2021 financial year.

On Wednesday, Macquarie, Morgans, JPMorgan and Citi all upgraded their price targets on the stock.

_*of course a bit of capital raise dilution on that raw number_


----------



## KevinBB

$0.73 fully franked dividend, payable on 5 July 2022. Up 21% on the dividend of the same time last year. Thank you Mr NAB.

2 down and 1 to go.

KH


----------



## CityIndex

KevinBB said:


> $0.73 fully franked dividend, payable on 5 July 2022. Up 21% on the dividend of the same time last year. Thank you Mr NAB.
> 
> 2 down and 1 to go.
> 
> KH



NAB also beat on 1H expectations and announced a share buy-back worth $2.5b commencing this month. 

All trading carries risk, but is there scope for the stock put in a new cycle high over the coming days and potentially break the longer-term resistance at $34?


----------



## sptrawler

KevinBB said:


> $0.73 fully franked dividend, payable on 5 July 2022. Up 21% on the dividend of the same time last year. Thank you Mr NAB.
> 
> 2 down and 1 to go.
> 
> KH



Great news, here is an article on the announcement.

National Australia Bank has reported rising cash earnings and hiked its interim dividend, after chief executive Ross McEwan said the major bank had seen the fastest growth in business lending since the global financial crisis.

NAB on Thursday reported cash earnings of $3.48 billion for the six months to March 31, an increase of 4.1 per cent on the prior period, and shareholders will receive an interim dividend of 73¢ per share, up from 60¢ the prior period.
NAB reported cash earnings had increased across its business bank by 17.5 per cent to $1.4 billion and institutional bank by 3.1 per cent to $806 million, while it had decreased by 8.3 per cent to $788 million in personal banking.
The big four bank increased its provision for bad loans by $2 million, as it braces for the potential impact of higher inflation and interest rates, following moves by the central bank to increase the official cash rate by 25 basis points this week.


----------



## mullokintyre

sptrawler said:


> The big four bank increased its provision for bad loans by $2 million, as it braces for the potential impact of higher inflation and interest rates, following moves by the central bank to increase the official cash rate by 25 basis points this week.



2 million?.. thats a rounding error for a bank!!
mick


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> 2 million?.. thats a rounding error for a bank!!
> mick



 must have  hired Bob Newhart  ( the Retirement Party  reference )


----------



## eskys

NAB, top of 32.66 today at open, low at 31.24, back to 32 at time of my typing.....banks were supported yesterday, today, they are pushing it down..........too hard to loan at higher rates?


----------



## divs4ever

will certainly  cause some potential borrowers pause and re-assess ( which i think is a good thing )

the RBA guidance of hoping for 2.5% rate by December ( so roughly double that for a mortgage )  will worry some ESPECIALLY since other costs , fees and charges are rising as well ( while wages/salaries tend to lag ) , in a difficult to predict manner 

 HOWEVER that may trigger different issues in say building construction ( less so in home improvements i would think )


----------



## eskys

This market is a bit like my laundry days. The sun was out this morning; looked like it was going to be a good day, so I didn't ask Siri which is what I do every morning.  I hung my washing out, it's wetter now than when it come out of the machine...........we don't know when it will pour


----------



## sptrawler

Had an interesting email from UBank so thought I would do some investigation, it looks like NAB has bought up a techbank platform.









						Staff exodus at 86 400 after NAB integration – report
					

More than 35% of the staff that joined NAB in the deal have left, with some citing culture clash




					www.mpamag.com
				



A large proportion of the staff at 86 400 has left since the digital bank’s $220 million takeover by National Australia Bank. About 50 people have left, with some citing a culture clash.

NAB’s acquisition of the digital bank was completed in May last year, but the staff exodus has continued into 2022, according to a report by_ The Australian. _Sources told the publication that many of the resignations were due to the differences in culture between start-up 86 400 and the large incumbent.

“It’s a very different culture at NAB,” one person, speaking anonymously, told_ The Australian._
Nearly 140 employees of 86 400 went across to NAB in the acquisition, meaning the departures represent more than 35% of that intake.

86 400 head Robert Bell, whose exit was flagged by NAB, left after the transfer of 86 400’s banking business onto NAB’s licence, _The Australian_ reported. Sources told the publication that 86 400 chief risk officer Guy Harding was also understood to be headed for the door. Head of lending Melissa Christy quit the bank last month to take a similar role at AMP. 

Travis Tyler, product and marketing chief at 86 400, left NAB to join ASX-listed Zip, while financial planning and analysis manager Harman Shankar quit to join MA Financial. Andrew Ritchie, engineering manager for 86 400, left NAB last month to join Basiq, an open banking platform.

NAB is integrating 86 400 into its digital arm, UBank, using the start-up’s technology but doing away with its brand,_ The Australian_ reported. UBank, which has been filling the gaps left by the 86 400 exodus and growing the combined team, plans to refresh its own brand in the first half of the year.


----------



## SyBoo

NAB is currently in bear territory.    Down 22% down from the high of $33.75.    The froth has been blown off.
_(I wonder if they'll do another capital raising at $14.15(ish) at some point in the future ?) _


----------



## qldfrog

As you must know,nab also bough Citibank au retail banking...
Citibank was good and provided exposure to the world, i have multi currency accounts with them used seamlessly in March across the US and Central America.i am not confident at all the similar oversea exposure will be provided.not happy and feeling more and more blocked


----------



## divs4ever

SyBoo said:


> NAB is currently in bear territory.    Down 22% down from the high of $33.75.    The froth has been blown off.
> _(I wonder if they'll do another capital raising at $14.15(ish) at some point in the future ?) _



 have never been a NAB fan  , although i did buy Clydesdale Bank ( now VUK ) after the spin-off for what looks now to be suicidal exposure to the UK economy 

 BUT if the price is right .. i will buy most stocks


----------



## sptrawler

SyBoo said:


> NAB is currently in bear territory.    Down 22% down from the high of $33.75.    The froth has been blown off.
> _(I wonder if they'll do another capital raising at $14.15(ish) at some point in the future ?) _



That would be nice


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> have never been a NAB fan  , although i did buy Clydesdale Bank ( now VUK ) after the spin-off for what looks now to be suicidal exposure to the UK economy
> 
> BUT if the price is right .. i will buy most stocks



Yes I bought VUK in the covid crash around the $1 mark, have since sold but never say never.
As you say, if the price is right.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

another oxymoron .... Work Culture



> NAB says its head of trading sometimes carries a “souvenir bat” when he walks around the trading room, but it was a “fidget toy” and was not carried “in a threatening manner”.


----------



## sptrawler

NAB reported a healthy increase in quarterly profit, the share price tanks, situation normal. 😂 









						NAB profits rise, ASX set to fall
					

NAB posts a rise in quarterly profits, while US stocks end mixed as chipmaker Nvidia warns of a fall in revenue.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
NAB said its unaudited cash profit rose 6 per cent over the third quarter from the same time a year ago, as it benefited from an increase in home and business loans, as well as higher interest rates. 

The big bank said revenue increased by 2 per cent, but the net interest margin was slightly lower overall because of a fall in income from its markets and treasury divisions. 

NAB said the benefit of higher interest rates for the bank in terms of higher income was partly offset by home-loan competition and higher funding costs. 

NAB and other big banks have passed on in full the Reserve Bank's 1.75 percentage point rise in interest rates since May to home loan borrowers. 

The purchase of Citigroup's Australian consumer business also boosted earnings. 

Chief executive Ross McEwan described the bank's quarterly performance as "pleasing". 

IDH


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon,
Been report via New Corp Media sources:

The Federal Court finds NAB engaged in unconscionable conduct by continuing to charge customers periodic payment fees even though NAB knew the overcharging was occurring, ASIC notes.

ASIC alleged that between February 2015 and February 2019 NAB was charging fees for some periodic payments even though customers were entitled to an exemption and, in some cases, NAB charged a higher fee than it should have.
NAB overcharged 4874 personal banking and 913 business banking customers a total of $365,454 in periodic payment fees.

"The continued charging of incorrect fees to customers when NAB knew it was occurring was concerning as it demonstrated that NAB was promoting its own interests over those of its customers," ASIC Deputy Chair Sarah Court said.
"Disappointingly, it took NAB over two years to switch off the periodic payment fees after becoming aware of the issue."
ASIC’s allegation that NAB falsely represented to customers that it could charge fees for certain periodic payments under the bank’s terms and conditions when it was not entitled to do so was not sustained by the court.

The matter will be listed for a hearing on the scope of any further relief, including penalty, on a date to be fixed.

Have a very nice day, what's left of it.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Reported widely today (09/11/22):

NAB has posted an 8 per cent lift in cash earnings for the full year, underpinned by strength in its business and institutional banking divisions.  Cash profit jumped to $7.1bn for the 12 months ended September 30, the bank said in an ASX statement on Thursday.

The result was in line with analyst expectations, apparently 

The lift in profit was underpinned by volume momentum, the rising interest rate environment and a balanced approach to cost discipline, NAB said.  An ongoing focus on strong balance sheet settings had been key to delivering sustainable growth, chief executive Ross McEwan noted.

“This (result) reflects continued execution of our strategy including targeted volume growth and a disciplined approach to managing costs while investing for growth,” Mr McEwan said.

“After 11 years of interest rate reductions, earnings have also benefitted in fiscal 2022 from the rising interest rate environment.”

NAB declared a final dividend of 78c per share, bringing the full-year payout to $1.51 per share, fully franked. That compares to 2021’s full-year dividend of $1.27 per share.

rcw1 is not holding at present.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------

