# ATN - Ashburton Minerals



## Fancypants (19 March 2011)

I would expect the price of Ashburton Minerals to increase to 10 cents in the coming weeks as they are reporting results of the new mine. I bet the results will be very encouraging and if you can get in at these cheap levels, you may possibly make a fortune. Good luck to those wise investors getting in now....


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## beatle (1 April 2011)

Fancypants said:


> I would expect the price of Ashburton Minerals to increase to 10 cents in the coming weeks as they are reporting results of the new mine. I bet the results will be very encouraging and if you can get in at these cheap levels, you may possibly make a fortune. Good luck to those wise investors getting in now....




Hi Fancypants, I noticed your post above, when I was about to post on ATN myself, and wondered which "mine" you refer to? My assumption is that you refer to Obi Island (in Indonesia) and not Yea (in Victoria) although Yea has been drilled in the past few weeks. 

I understand that Obi is the subject of drilling in the coming weeks - a drill rig has arrived at Obi Island in the past few days and they have it set up at one of the target locations.


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## beatle (1 April 2011)

ATN’s Obi Island gold/silver project has the hallmarks of being a company maker for a number of reasons, and an investment at current levels in the company will provide an excellent entry point, even though it is speculative in nature. 

I can see ATN moving up sharply within the next month based on the technical characteristics of the Obi Project, which is summarized below based on ATN announcements, plus other aspects which should also be considered - I will post some of those aspects over the next week or so.

ATN’s project on Obi Island is targeting a large epithermal gold/silver/base metals system that has been the subject of extensive recent artisanal gold mining by around 1,000 miners – that area of artisanal mining is substantial:

The 7,700 Hectare licence area consists of NUMEROUS BRECCIA ZONES AND VEIN SETS, CHARACTERISTIC OF A LARGE EPITHERMAL GOLD/SILVER PROJECT (possibly similar to Gosowong - see *Note below), with OVER 1 KM OF STRIKE on current main artisanal workings – those artisanal workings include over 200 pits, shafts and adits scattered on the northern slopes of a hillside. Some of the larger veins appear to be continuous along strike for several hundred metres. At least 4 - 5 separate veins are noted across strike of the main zone, with individual veins occasionally worked to depths in excess of 50 m.

Random sampling of run-of-mine ore by Ashburton geologists, comprising 15 samples which were brought back to Perth for analysis, showed average grade to be 16 g/t, ranging from 4.3 g/t to 42.3 g/t.

Reconnaissance by Ashburton staff along the corridor extending southwards of the main artisanal workings confirmed scattered workings EXTEND FOR AT LEAST A FURTHER 3 KMS within the licence area. Numerous epithermal quartz vein boulders were noted in the river upstream from the artisanal workings indicating more mineralisation occurs to the south and southwest within the licence in areas yet to be investigated in detail.

* Note: Obi Island is situated to the south of the larger Halmahera Island which hosts the FIVE MILLION OUNCE GOSOWONG GOLD DEPOSIT with REGIONALLY SIMILAR GEOLOGY comprising a range of Late Eocene to Pliocene volcano-sedimentary sequences CHARACTERIZED BY EPITHERMAL MINERALISATION.


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## beatle (1 April 2011)

ATN has released a status report on various exploration activities occurring in March. The most significant of these relates to Obi Island and its gold/silver/base metals epithermal project, with the first of 3 containers of drilling equipment arriving at the Island, and another 2 containers due to arrive within the next 8 - 10 days. Upon arrival of the remaining containers drilling at the Obi project should soon be underway thereafter. That means there is a couple of weeks of opportunity to get ATN shares at a reasonable price before the expectation of excitement mounting for that drilling (and an expected reflection in a move upwards in share price!).

On the trading front, ATN closed at the days high of 5.1 cents, with continual good volume, of 2.26 million shares traded. I welcome someone to post a comment on the technical aspects of ATN - from my basic observations the chart looks good with a solid build up in share price, towards a test of the recent intra-day high of 5.5 cents (and a day high of 5.2 cents). If ATN breaks through those levels I could imagine traders will begin to get excited - but that's my imagination running away with an expectation of a big push up in the short term of course!!! Certainly though, there were quite a few solid bids close to the close of trading today with one buyer bidding 1 million shares at 5.0 cents (and getting 276,630 shares, left with 723,370 on the bid at the close).


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## beatle (2 April 2011)

Further to the comments about ATN and its Obi Island epithermal project:

Once drilling is underway on Obi Island, the share price is likely to be on the move IMO. And any possibility of obvious gold/silver mineralization could start “filtering back” into the market over the following weeks, therefore if you’re into “speculative punts” the current share price could be the last opportunity to secure a highly leveraged position in ATN. 

Since there is a General Meeting on 19 April to ensure that some of the directors are “set” in case the share price goes for a big run I suggest that the run up to that meeting is the best time to slowly buy up shares in ATN - its only human nature that certain people will want to keep a “lid” on the share price until that date, thus the company is likely to issue no further positive news prior to that meeting (or news of a neutral to negative tinge in them, ala like yesterdays announcement, lol) which otherwise could influence the share price upwards - thus no news flow should assist in capping the share price prior to that meeting (being the cynic that I am!). But it also represents the best time to buy shares, as after that date surely its in the best interests of all, esp the directors to let it "fly"!


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## beatle (3 April 2011)

Since my first reply to Fancypants comments I have been surprised that no one, including Fancypants, has posted on the ATN thread. 

Therefore I provide some statistics on ATN on this ASF website:

Fancypants' initial post on the ATN thread was on 19 March 2011. 
Until I replied to his post a total of 136 views had been made on this thread. Since my first post on ATN, made early on 1 April 2011, there has been a total of 222 views made (which of course includes a few of my own to be able to post as well!). Since I have made 4 posts (prior to this one) maybe those viewers are repeat viewers as each new post is made, Thus in the past three days there has been around 80 odd views made by others (which might be 20 odd repeat viewers) - but unfortunately no other posters to mine have been made.

Whilst at first glance the fact that I am the only active poster on this site is disappointing, it is clear that there are people sufficiently interested to open up and view the thread, and maybe some of those viewers are either considering an investment or already actively buying/trading ATN at the moment. I confirm that whilst I am posting I remain an active bidder/buyer of ATN shares, but already hold a sizeable parcel. Perhaps some of those viewers don't want to post until they have a larger holding in ATN, who knows.

Whilst an investment in ATN is speculative I have a very strong belief that ATN will move up after the next few weeks, particularly post the General Meeting (19 April) and especially when the drilling is underway on Obi Island. I don't think we will see another positive announcement by ATN until the General Meeting is over. It is not in the interests of certain ATN management to put out a positive announcement until the General Meeting is over and certain resolutions passed at that meeting. Post that meeting there is every reason to provide as much positive news as possible!


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

Some more thoughts about ATN with regard to its Obi Island epithermal gold/silver/base metals project:


1. ATN currently has a market capitalization of $37 million (share price of 5.1 cents), and has recently raised $4.5 million to fund ongoing exploration, principally at its Obi Island project.

2. The best “upside analogy” for ATN share price is with ROL and its large gold project centred on Romang Island, also located in Indonesia. Whilst the share structure is very different for ROL, with only 85 million shares on issue and a market cap of $160 million, compared to ATN having 726 million shares, if we remove the cash that ROL currently enjoys (ca. $60 million) and ATN holds (ca. $4.5 million), then bare bones “Enterprise Value” of ROL is $100 million, and ATN is $30.5 million). 

Thus upside potential for ATN on a “steady state” basis based on ROL is 100/32.5 = 3.07 x 5.1 cents = 15.5 cents!!! But in the immediate weeks after ROL’s first successful drill result being announced ROL share price was much higher (and also had negligible cash), thus the immediate upside to any positive drill result being announced is possibly FAR HIGHER:

IF we use the ROL analogy where ROL pre-drill price moved slowly from about 30 cents to 60 cents at the time of drilling and at the time of announcement it went from 60 cents to 240 cents!!! Thus ROL doubled from its pre-drill price, then went 8 times at the time of discovery from pre-drill price ie if ATN did a “RO:L” it could go from say 4 cents (pre-drill) up to 8.0 cents at time of drilling, then UP TO 32 cents if there is a discovery!!! (Although not certain of discovery this is NOT A WILDCAT drilling program, its a drilling of an ALREADY ESTABLISHED where considerable high grade gold samples have been taken by ATN geologists!!!).


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

NOTE: The Non-Executive Chairman of ATN is Ric Crabb, of Paladin fame - a company that rose in price from a few cents (and market cap of almost zilch!) to a price of several dollars (and a market cap of a couple BILLION!) when it acquired the uranium interests in Africa. I suggest that Ric has got a powerful investor base, many of whom would be ready to step into supporting ATN if there is any suggestion that ATN has got anything like a Gosowong or Romang Island at its Obi project!


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

I'm very surprised to see ATN trade down so far immediately after the open, even if the announcement would be interpreted to be slightly negative, ie a delay of 8 - 10 days in drilling commencement! 

Does it really mean anything significant though? I think not, it just provides an opportunity to buy shares at a cheaper price, and those dumping watching it go up beyond their selling price! Maybe they will have to rush to get those shares back later on (which can only add to buying pressure!). 

What I don't have any doubts on is that once drilling is underway you won't see that sort of opening on ATN, it should start to move higher, and not just by 0.1 cent intervals over a trading session! IMO of course, but I am confident knowing the fundamentals of the Obi Island project are not just sound, but VERY exciting!


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

I welcome any other poster interested in ATN, to broaden the focus of posts, beyond what I have posted. Its good to have an opinion but its not healthy if there is no cross-fertilisation of thoughts IMO.

I would particularly be happy to hear others thoughts re ATN share price from a chartists point of view. Whilst I have posted on a rudimentary basis on ATN share price, I am an amateur and there are some very good posters on ASF commenting on chart interpretation. 

ATN has now settled slightly below close of last weeks level, and I would say its been a good positive start to the week, knowing we have got to endure another 2 weeks before the General Meeting (Tues 19th April) which I personally tip as being the blast-off week!

In anticipation ....


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

Please correct me if I am missing something re technical charting re ATN today:

We have had quite a largish number of shares traded (with 1 hour still to go till close) - 6.2 million - almost as many as the recent biggest number of March 29 (8.7 million shares traded), in between that there has been mostly around 2 - 3 million shares traded. Since that largish number has been traded on a down day for ATN, it could be interpreted as a negative for the stock I presume. 

And yet we are now only about a week away from the drilling rig and all its parts are expected on Obi Island, in readiness for it to begin drilling! That MUST be a bullish activity, surely to be followed up soon thereafter with a confirmation of drilling commencing (presumably an announcement of such will be put out on or soon after 19 April! Thus why is it such a down day on such strong volume for ATN? Beats me, all I know its a great opportunity to buy more!


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## mgm1a (4 April 2011)

hi beatle, i had a look at this over weekend as i have been stalking your posts   I had a lick at this as an unsuccessful day trade on 18 NOv when they got into the project. 

The fact they obviously have gold is attractive but how does it work with the company eventually asking the artisanal miners to leave ? There is obviously quite a few. Seems to be a risk factor?


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## beatle (4 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, and FINALLY - and what a great person to be co-posting with!!! You've made my day Mgm1a. 

From a longer term point of view you raise a very important question and to be totally honest I don't know exactly how it works with these artisanal miners, and I haven't confirmed the exact relationship of the tenement holder (PT Eka Samudra) with the artisanal miners - but there does appear to be some relationship as the earlier announcements by ATN refers to the fact that the Small Scale Mining Area ("SSMA") of 300 Ha lies within the larger 7,000 Ha IUP that ATN has got access to (along with a share of profits from gravity processing of SSMA gold won based on a processing facility that ATN will provide to the artisanal miners - that suggests to me that there is a good relationship between ATN and the artisanal miners via PT Eka Samudra (of course that is conjecture by myself). 

I have not considered anything more from a longer term point of view as I think that its a much longer term issue that may or may not be resolved, but in the meantime we are surely going to see a considerable number of positive advancements for ATN that should be reflected in large jumps in ATN share price. Of course the fact that ATN has a jv with PT Eka Samudra Nusantara on a valid IUP suggests that at least there is a legal right to explore on the licence, while in a practical sense when in a development phase there might be some interesting discussions between the parties.

But gee I'm so happy to see your post Mgm1a! My aim is to follow the story as much as possible, and regularly post on ASF to keep the limelight on ATN for all over the following months etc, as things develop, I hope you remain posting as well, as there is strength in numbers. As i see it, there are few raw exploration plays around at the moment that have the same potential in a company with such a low share price and potential to run up. Its very exciting, and having watched on the sidelines to SFR, ROL rocket up I'm hoping this follows their lead!

In my estimates we have around 10 more trading sessions where it might be capped before it begins its move upwards, what is your view Mgm1a?


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## beatle (5 April 2011)

I wonder what the breakdown of trades in ATN is each day, from the point of view of daytraders and versus longer term holders. IMO there are a fair number of daytraders in ATN that don't take so much interest in what the company has got, and are happy to take a few points each trade. While that provides more trading liquidity for all, it also presents a wall of resistance at each new higher level (I guess also a floor of support at each level too!). 

WHEN ATN is about to move, based on actual activity on the ground on Obi Island, I wonder if that trader mentality will continue or if it will force a rush of buying to get back into the stock. I know that ATN has traded very strongly when it has run on two occasions over the past months, and it has got as high as 5.5 cents on one day, and that move up was only broken when ATN got a speeding ticket and reported nothing of note other than to confirm the Obi Island arrangement. I have no doubt that when ATN reports that the drilling on the ground is about to commence, thus no speeding ticket from the ASX to worry about, it will run strongly past that 5.5 cent mark. That time is likely to be at about the time of the Gen Meeting, its amazing how those sorts of occasions coincide with activity on the ground and the run on the share price! IF that is the case, then we only have to wait 10 more trading days (ie 2 weeks) before it is all clear for ATN to start revving its engines.

Knowing that, would short termers in ATN sell? Do they bother to think about a bigger picture than the last nano second of trading that makes them a few hundred dollars, lol (or am I being naive?). Posters with a different view are welcome to contribute their 2 bobs worth ....


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## beatle (5 April 2011)

Quite a big dump at 4.7 cents and all it does is make ATN looker even more attractive to BUY!!! Now less than 10 trading days to a rocket launch IMO!!!


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## beatle (5 April 2011)

Another down day for ATN on reasonable volume, seems the traders continue to rule the roost with it at the moment. Not sure what will turn it around in the next few days as surely the company is unlikely to put out anything of a positive note until the Gen Mtg on 19 April, so it might become even more attractive (ie cheaper) over that next 9 trading days! 
And yet by that same argument, as each day runs down towards that Gen Mtg it becomes more likely to run back up in anticipation of the drilling being 1 day closer. I have no doubt that around the day of the Gen Mtg there will be a positive announcement about the drill being ready to embark on the 3,000 - 4,000 metre diamond drilling program on Obi. And that should create a lot of positive momentum for ATN share price in anticipation. IMO of course.


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## mgm1a (5 April 2011)

beatle it was me excited to find you delving into something else .
Still early days for me - actually the graph looks pretty strong - definite trending since Nov. (should have held) with 30 day and 90 ema sloping upwards and SP hugging the top of bollinger bands, and a strong differnce to previous 4 years. Looks good enough to justify getting a small opening stake.

Still more research to do...i notice the last qltry didn't forecast the next $500k about to be paid to Eka, shoddy. 

I think they are up against getting more drilling before next wet season (sounds familiar) when the 12 month term finishes and they should have spent $1m and pay another $2m to Eka. The planned $0.4k drill program, now, means at least another $0.6k in drill and geo work. 

will mean cap raise fairly soon if they want to have enough time to raise a good lick of $5m + since they needs $2M and more drilling and working capital

I know zero about INdonesia but i do wonder about the 77km² they have - wonder what companies hold nearby and surrounding and if they also want to deal? Looks very prospective surely outside they tenement?

Actually just noticed the 25% profit share with upgraded facility! Wow! given what the artisans uncover this could be substantial?


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## beatle (6 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, and a great post - you certainly do your research which is great to see, that way there are 2 sets of eyes watching it and coming at it from different angles. 

I'm glad to hear your view that the chart is ok, as my amateurish approach on that front can't be relied on. I do tend to watch the momentum in the market from time to time just watching the shares trade, and I have got to say that last Friday's late announcement, which simply delays the anticipation of drilling by a little over a week, had the desired affect of dampening the traders enthusiasm and therefore the past 2 days have been on a downer. I can expect this negativity will continue a bit longer until it becomes clear that the time for the drilling is approaching and the Gen Mtg is almost on us. Its only 9 trading days before that Gen Mtg and I wouldn't mind betting that we get a positive announcement out regarding the drilling soon enough around that meeting time! 

As for the profit share on the SSMA profit that you refer to, what I read in that is as much about a good relationship between the artisanal miners and PT Eka Samudra Nusantara (ATN's JV partner in the 7,000 Ha licence area) which will be further enhanced by them assisting the artisanal miners with an improved gold processing facility, as the profit sharing arrangement - although that clearly will be considerable (IF they can properly control the gold won by artisanal miners and what are considered "profits").

I have been involved in various Indonesian investments in the past, and clearly there has been considerable successful mining operations by Australian companies working closely with local Indonesian groups (generally through the Contract of Work licence), but from what I understand of the new mining law the IUP licence provides for a more effective means of mineral ownership by the licencee than the old KP system which in contrast did not guarantee continuing rights after each 12 month anniversary date and didn't allow for a licence to be held by a foreign entity in their own right (in the case of ATN from what has been announced the ownship of the licence will most probably continue through PT Eka Samudra Nusantara, as the farm-in only provides for ultimately 85% equity to ATN unless there is a provision in the agreement for ATN to convert final equity of PT Eka Samudra Nusantara to a royalty but I am unaware of this).

As for exploration expenses and timing for a capital raise etc, I would refer you to ROL where it has had a lot of success with its Romang Island exploration (some ways south of Obi Island), and has raised a considerable amount of cash to continue drilling at an accelerated rate. IF ATN can similarly have the initial success that ROL has had then raising the cash should not be an issue! And as I have stated elsewhere, the Chairman of ATN is Ric Crabb, who not only is a very successful operator with other groups (as well as being a very experienced commercial lawyer particularly involved in mining ventures to boot), he is also the Chairman of Paladin, so I suggest he is well placed to raise as much money as is necessary to continue the momentum of the exploration activity if initial results are successful.


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## beatle (7 April 2011)

Trading in ATN yesterday was interesting for a few different reasons based on what I noticed sitting at a screen for most of the session (haven't I got something better to do, lol!):

1. Someone was playing games at the start, and expecting to induce traders to buy higher (or so I thought at first, but actually after the start I realised it was an initiative to tease sellers into selling slightly lower!). This worked as the sellers were frustrated not getting 4.7 cents at the open and finally pushed it lower to 4.6 cents.
2. Then for most of the session it was a stalemate, until buyers started to trade it back up to its original position of 4.7 cents.
3. Then at the close someone traded 5,000 shares at 4.6 cents.

I detected (just my feeling, nothing I can objectively point my finger on!) that the downward momentum was waning, and someone is now getting set for it to change upwards again!


Now this morning before the open, I notice that a seller (is it the same person playing games like yesterday morning at the open) is trying to persuade the market lower (with an Offer at 4.0 cents, lol!). I wonder if this is actually the flag that signals the start of upward momentum..... 

Its now only 8 trading days before the Gen Mtg, and 1 day closer to the drill rig and all the support equipment arriving on Obi Island in readiness for the drilling of its epithermal gold/silver/base metals targets!

General market sentiment must be positive with the Dow closing up slightly and gold in all time record US dollar territory, with silver only cents from a US$40/oz level. Timing for ATN couldn't be any better . . .


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## beatle (7 April 2011)

Wow, I did see the downward momentum coming to a slow stop, but I sure didn't see it turning around so quickly! The 4.8 cents offer was taken out in one foul swoop, and it looks like ATN now has turned the corner, but has to take out just over a million at 4.9 cents to confirm its move up! Looks like people realise that last weeks news is simply that, last weeks news! 
I would imagine that with the Gen Mtg coming closer day by day the expectations of the drill announcement is getting closer too, and this should those longer term holders who believe that Obi Island has the potential to be a real company maker!


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## beatle (7 April 2011)

Trading in ATN this morning makes no logical financial sense (to us with no ulterior motive other than to get the share price up higher!), as it has fluctuated wildly and the last slam down seeking to dump 1 million shares down from 4.7 cents to 4.6 cents seems crazy at first glance. (Of course I have glanced it much more times than once!). IMO there is a motive for that but in about 8 trading days time that motive will be gone, but then again its just IMO (lol)!


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## beatle (8 April 2011)

As I mentioned yesterday in my last post, the trading in ATN seemed illogical and a waste, as mid-session it appeared that some positive momentum was building up, then all of a sudden some lemmings wanted to slam it down as hard as possible. 

I believe that very short-term negative view will disappear immediately on the day of the Gen Mtg, only 7 trading days from now! 

Soon after the Gen Mtg there is likely to be a positive announcement confirming that the rig is ready to commence testing numerous vein sets all over the place but immediately adjacent to the artisanal mining areas. As anticipation develops in coming weeks there is likely to be a gradual building up of the share price, and from the information provided by the company to date, I can see the project developing into a major new epithermal discovery with tons of excitement to follow! That's what I have invested in, and expect to see develop into a major new story in the months to follow.

IF you dump more shares at price below what its now at, I will be one of the buyers!!! (Make my day, sunshine, lol).


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## beatle (8 April 2011)

Just a word of warning to those watching the screen before the start of trading shortly (Friday 8 April) - there is a bid at 5.0 cents, 200,000 shares. IF that gets pulled BEFORE trading starts, then its possibly an indication that someone intends to sell down! (I noticed the same start to trading about 2 days ago, when the Bid got pulled about 5 minutes before trading started then someone dropped a couple of hundred thousand shares at a lower price than the day before!). The games people play!!!


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## beatle (8 April 2011)

Just for the record, those were not dummy trades at the open, in fact a few other bids as well managed to take out the balance of that 1 million dump (which began at 4.6 cents mid-session yesterday), on the open this morning. That was a relief! 

So my view is that in the short term the trading seems fairly neutral at current share price of 4.6 cents, it has lost the downward momentum that was about over the past few days, and maybe it will start to test the upside soon. Knowing we are now only a week or so away from having the other rig equipment landed on Obi Island, and soon thereafter the Gen Mtg to announce such drilling to commence, I can't see much holding this share price down!


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## KurwaJegoMac (8 April 2011)

Beatle I always took you for a F/A - seems you're slowly slipping over to the dark side 

It's well and truly going sideways at the moment but I like a nice strong base (my particular trading style).

I hold ATN too (bought in the last couple of days). Got out of NMR at around 0.095 as I could see it still struggling to break 0.1. Might go back to it one day, it's on the radar for now.


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## beatle (8 April 2011)

Hi KurwaJegoMac, its great to get your post and know that you are into ATN as well.

As for the comment "Beatle I always took you for a F/A - seems you're slowly slipping over to the dark side" - lol. Just to reassure you, that I am very much into the fundamentals of the company and its project, but when I have nothing better to do (to coin a phrase of the missus!) I watch the share trading, and nothing irks me more than to watch games being played, and in this case as its got limited duration before its ready to "pop" I was more than just amused - I don't like to start posting on something for it to immediately start getting dumped on, it makes me feel embarrassed to have commenced my posting. I certainly don't try to pump something up so someone can take advantage of that short term situation!

Back to the fundamentals, I am very excited about ATN's Obi Island project as you might have realised in reading my earlier posts. If it shows the promise in early drilling that there is indeed mineralised vein sets similar to the artisanal SSMA I expect the share price won't be sitting around its current levels and moving by 0.1 cents every now and then!

Today the general trading sentiment in ATN though is quite positive and although I can't read a chart other than to say its up or down, the flow of trading seems to show that to me, amateur as I am.

Now its ATN's turn to show us the money!!!


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## beatle (8 April 2011)

The ATN share price was kicked down once again, similar to yesterday, this time taking out all of 4.8 cents on the bid and down to 4.7 cents on the offer in one trade - its a similar tactic to that used yesterday when 1 million shares were put on the market, this time only 314,291 were involved in the dump, then a few more were used up, including 8,000 shares, to get the price down to 4.6 cents, so I guess someone wants to hold the price down for a bit longer - I can imagine the brake will be released in about 6 trading days time!


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## beatle (9 April 2011)

ATN's share price fell back over the week, due to the slight delay in getting a drilling rig and all its components to Obi Island, and the fact that we are still 1 trading week (plus a day) away from the Gen Mtg (to allow certain directors to get set for the move up in share price once the action occurs on the ground with the drilling). Its an interesting time, I suggest you only have the certainty of another week of relatively low share price before things might take off, thus whilst its unlikely to move up a lot in the coming week ATN's share price now is probably the lowest it will be for the next couple of months (IMO of course!), thus is a good buying opportunity - especially while there seems to be a few cappers out there - they are effectively sacrificing their shares at the moment, again IMO!
Go ATN


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## beatle (10 April 2011)

Since I began posting on ATN 8 days ago the number of views on this website has gone from 136 up to 766 views as of today! Of course its probably the same people viewing it each time, maybe it has grown a bit since that time and of course that means there are mainly repeat viewers, but my point is that some people clearly are interested to read about ATN.

Whilst I have spent a lot of time posting on ATN re recent trading activity and the games that are played by people from time to time, I don't want people to lose sight of the facts about ATN re its Obi Island gold/silver/base metals project. In particular:
1. We are only 6 trading days away from a Gen Mtg of ATN for shareholders to approve some share/option arrangements for 2 directors. That allows them to be fully motivated to get the share price up thereafter! (BEfore that date there is not so much motivation, esp the pricing of the option package is the VWAP of ATN for the 5 days from Tuesday trading to the following Monday). I therefore suggest that ATN's share price will probably be under wraps until the date of the Gen Mtg (19 april).
2. A drill rig and all its ancillary equipment is being shipped to Obi Island to shortly after commence a 3,000 - 4,000 m diamond drilling program.
3. The fundamentals of this raw project are compelling, and just to re-iterate an earlier post on here, taken from ATN reports previously:

" Re: ATN - Ashburton Minerals 
ATN’s Obi Island gold/silver project has the hallmarks of being a company maker for a number of reasons, and an investment at current levels in the company will provide an excellent entry point, even though it is speculative in nature. 

ATN’s project on Obi Island is targeting a large epithermal gold/silver/base metals system that has been the subject of extensive recent artisanal gold mining by around 1,000 miners – that area of artisanal mining is substantial:

The 7,700 Hectare licence area consists of NUMEROUS BRECCIA ZONES AND VEIN SETS, CHARACTERISTIC OF A LARGE EPITHERMAL GOLD/SILVER PROJECT (possibly similar to Gosowong - see *Note below), with OVER 1 KM OF STRIKE on current main artisanal workings – those artisanal workings include over 200 pits, shafts and adits scattered on the northern slopes of a hillside. Some of the larger veins appear to be continuous along strike for several hundred metres. At least 4 - 5 separate veins are noted across strike of the main zone, with individual veins occasionally worked to depths in excess of 50 m.

Random sampling of run-of-mine ore by Ashburton geologists, comprising 15 samples which were brought back to Perth for analysis, showed average grade to be 16 g/t, ranging from 4.3 g/t to 42.3 g/t.

Reconnaissance by Ashburton staff along the corridor extending southwards of the main artisanal workings confirmed scattered workings EXTEND FOR AT LEAST A FURTHER 3 KMS within the licence area. Numerous epithermal quartz vein boulders were noted in the river upstream from the artisanal workings indicating more mineralisation occurs to the south and southwest within the licence in areas yet to be investigated in detail.

* Note: Obi Island is situated to the south of the larger Halmahera Island which hosts the FIVE MILLION OUNCE GOSOWONG GOLD DEPOSIT with REGIONALLY SIMILAR GEOLOGY comprising a range of Late Eocene to Pliocene volcano-sedimentary sequences CHARACTERIZED BY EPITHERMAL MINERALISATION. "


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## beatle (11 April 2011)

Very interesting, at the open: Some slightly stronger start to the bidding at 4.8 cents caused the capper (who was holding 1 million shares at 4.9 cents but it became 953,000shares when it was chomped on slightly the other day) to move his offer higher, at 5.3 cents. It seems he is worried he will lose his shares (or that he thinks its gonna move higher soon!).

I have a feeling that this weeks gonna be a good week .... (but I don't sing as well as the Black Eyed Peas, lol)


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## beatle (11 April 2011)

At the moment trading in ATN is a bit like "Custers last stand", with the "capper" of 953,000 shares now positioned at 5.0 cents from 5.3 cents and another 1 million sitting at 5.1 cents. If buyers take that wall down (ie about 2.76 million shares at 5/5.1 cents worth around $140,000 which is slightly above ATN's usual trading volume around 2 million shares) then there is likely to be a spike up in share price. 

Given that the company has no real motivation to put out a positive announcement UNTIL the VWAP period is over its going to be an interesting few days ahead. 

Still ATN's share price has moved up well today, and its probably the last chance to get shares at this price before the company joins in to start putting out positive statements about Obi Island drilling from the time of the Gen Mtg 19th april (following tues).


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## beatle (11 April 2011)

While its still 5 trading days plus a few hours to go before the Gen Mtg for ATN, the share price performed very well today, up 0.4 cents (or 8.5%) to 5.1 cents, with more than average volume of 3.9 million shares traded. I'm not surprised that the share price is moving up, knowing the activity soon to commence on Obi Island, targeting a large epithermal gold/silver/base metals system that has been the subject of small scale mining by artisanal miners that has the potential to send the ATN share price rocketing with positive results. 

I'd love for someone more competent to make comment on the technical chart of ATN, but from a simplistic point of view I'll make the point that ATN is now at the point of testing an area of resistance at 5.1/5.2 cents and an intra-day high of 5.5 cents. If ATN breaks through the 5.2 cents level at the close of trade in the coming week one should expect the price to keep moving up. That's from a technical perspective. Knowing the fundamentals of the Obi Island project there is a real reason for it to make that share price move upwards very soon!

At the moment I believe that the company is unlikely to put out a positive statement regarding the status of drill movement and activity until the Gen Mtg on the 19th April, and therefore there remains an opportunity to buy shares at the current level possibly for the last time before it makes new recent highs - and the current "cap" of around 1.15 million shares at 5.1 cents is possibly the last good opportunity to get set.

The next few days of trading will be very interesting to watch, and from 19th April will be more than interesting, more like VERY EXCITING IMO!!!


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## beatle (12 April 2011)

I have already acknowledged that ATN is a speculative explorer, with its focus of exploration on its recently acquired gold/silver/base metals project on Obi Island in Indonesia. 
It is due shortly to undertake the first round of diamond drilling on the project, targetting vein sets and other likely mineralisation indicators evident and contiguous with the adjacent small scale licence area that has been the subject of widespread mining by artisanal miners. The share price has recently moved higher (slightly) with anticipation of that drilling to come.
Therefore I re-post an earlier commentary regarding the upside potential of Obi Island, to give you an idea of the sort of return you could expect if the drilling delivers the goods as we hope for:

"1. ATN currently has a market capitalization of $37 million (share price of 5.1 cents), and has recently raised $4.5 million to fund ongoing exploration, principally at its Obi Island project.

2. The best “upside analogy” for ATN share price is with ROL and its large gold project centred on Romang Island, also located in Indonesia. Whilst the share structure is very different for ROL, with only 85 million shares on issue and a market cap of $160 million, compared to ATN having 726 million shares, if we remove the cash that ROL currently enjoys (ca. $60 million) and ATN holds (ca. $4.5 million), then bare bones “Enterprise Value” of ROL is $100 million, and ATN is $30.5 million). 

Thus upside potential for ATN on a “steady state” basis based on ROL is 100/30.5 = 3.27 x 5.1 cents = 16.5 cents!!! But in the immediate weeks after ROL’s first successful drill result being announced ROL share price was much higher (and also had negligible cash), thus the immediate upside to any positive drill result being announced is possibly FAR HIGHER:

IF we use the ROL analogy where ROL pre-drill price moved slowly from about 30 cents to 60 cents at the time of drilling and at the time of announcement it went from 60 cents to 240 cents!!! Thus ROL doubled from its pre-drill price, then went 8 times at the time of discovery from pre-drill price ie if ATN did a “RO:L” it could go from say 4 cents (pre-drill) up to 8.0 cents at time of drilling, then UP TO 32 cents if there is a discovery!!! (Although not certain of discovery this is NOT A WILDCAT drilling program, its a drilling of an ALREADY ESTABLISHED where considerable high grade gold samples have been taken by ATN geologists!!!). "

ATN is speculative, but the upside potential based on the above analogy makes it a most exciting play IMO - the next few days before the Gen Mtg might be the last chance to get set for that potential upside if I am reading the fundamentals and the market correctly. So far things seem to be following that course . . .


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## mgm1a (12 April 2011)

hi beatle, wrote a long reply last night and it got lost when i was doing stuff in background....
i read the annual reports 2003 to 2010, and last 18 months company ann.s ..they have had so many ASX queries! but they seem to have handled OK
I like the fact the directors and the MD have been with ATN for so long, the fact they reduced fees during GFC. But they have been around since 1994 and still haven't made a company yet! Their retained losses are up to $24.6M an annual rate of $1.4M p.a which is OK and not overly extravagant. 

But Obi seems to be the answer to their prayers...its got a lot going for it not least the fact the artisanal miners have proved the stuff is there.

I worry that its MC has flown high enough already but looking at a simple 6 month graph shows that the only way is up.

I got a small holding for the ride last week and to justify chewing the fat but i might not stay very long!


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## beatle (13 April 2011)

Mgm1a, you clearly do a lot of historic due diligence in your investments, I am impressed! I have followed ATN for a number of years and you are correct, the directors and the company has been around for a long while, esp the Chairman and MD. The Chairman you probably will be aware is Rick Crabb (brother of Phil, but these days it might be said that Phil is the brother of Rick due to Paladdin fame!).

The past exploration and projects really don't have any significance to ATN now, even though I realise you take notice of past exploration expenses etc (they are sunk costs on past projects), the Obi Island project is brand new and is the entire reason for my exuberance, despite it being it being a speculative play. What you have to consider is that its now got a history of artisanal gold production, and the fact that many of the shafts have gone as deep as 50 metres is proof that the project has got real potential to carry gold at depth as well along strike on the vein sets which have been traced at surface for kms within ATN's licence area.

I have no doubt that the project will produce some exciting drillhole intercepts, that will surely excite the market when announced, and my only question is whether they will get visible gold in the core, as the island is remote and it will be many weeks before we get results back from the drilling. But I have no doubt that the assay results will be positive as they plan to drill below existing mineralised vein sets, to depths of up to 200 metres. It will be more a question of how extensive the mineralisation and veins are at depth rather than IF they will get mineralisation! That should be sufficient to excite the market and push ATN's share price along IMO!

I believe we won't see any announcements out for another week regarding drilling commencement, until after the Gen Mtg is over.


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## beatle (13 April 2011)

Whilst it was a nervous seller in ATN at the open pushing it down to 4.9 cents, then some fairly big Bids on ATN soon after opening, and now the take out of the capper at 5.1 cents plus a bit at 5.2 cents. It seems the cheap shares I referred to in recent posts maybe have just gone!!! 

This sort of trading is a demonstation of the interest in ATN from investors with more than loose change in their pockets, and it certainly demonstrates the firepower ready to follow through in the stock as the activities on Obi Island begin to warm up. And its still 4 trading days plus a bit before the Gen Mtg . . .


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## KurwaJegoMac (13 April 2011)

Houston...


...we have lift-off!

:holysheep:


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## mgm1a (13 April 2011)

Hi beatle & KurwaJegoMac
Happy days. 13m volume but the depth is so thin - i am not able to pump more in during as I am away at work, darn it - the buyers obviously peeling off what ever the sellers were dishing up?? I thought there might be more resistance from unhappy holders from the peak in the graph of Oct09, obviously not.

The remoteness of the project is underlined by the infrequency of boat services..maybe a chance to top up if holders weaken in the meantime?

Beatle - i am a big fan of history when it comes to stocks - my fundamentals like to be flavoured by what they did, how well they did. Yes the page has been turned with Obi and that new page and the trading remind me of my (successful) foray into NRL. The ATN graph so seductively pointing north

The mention of shafts to 50m was something I missed - this is serious stuff that i hadn't seen in my research of my other area of interest in West Africa goldies. 

What do you both make of the description of the processing eequipment form China - big deal / small time ? 

I am pleased that this plant offers important local benefits to the environment and want directors to push this more. 

See this link on mercury dangers in Halmahera:
http://www.newcrest.com.au/upload/mercury_on_halmahera.pdf

I have emailed directors a couple of questions, see if i get a reply
GL


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## beatle (14 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a and KurwaJegoMac, what an amazing day for ATN and us holders! Gee its good to be watching it trade by trade as I did today, wondering if it would break 5.3 cents etc etc. The volume absolutely blew me away as I had no idea there was such a following, even though I am of the view that there are some very big investors sitting waiting to get in if there is a sniff of epithermal gold in those veins (and since we know the artisanal miners would not have been sinking such deep shafts without considerable success I honestly believe its a no-brainer - even if I have mentioned it being a raw speculative play!).

About your questions Mgm1a, esp re the China processing facilities. To be honest I don't know what to think of this, as I am unaware of the MD's processing capability (he is a geologist!), and I would have thought that the processing circuit would be more capably put together with the assistance and advice of a processing engineer/metallurgist, or maybe the principal of PT Eka Samudra Nusantara is a processing guru. What I did take some heart from is the comment that "During this trip Mr Dukovcic was introduced to a number of Chinese businessmen who appeared impressed by the Obi gold project and the Company’s plans and activities."
Maybe we can ponder whether it was this Chinese connection for pushing the price up today (lol). If it were the case then I would imagine ATN would get a great following all of a sudden.

I'm not sure how the market will react to the news that the equipment remains delayed for another couple of weeks, but certainly in my view its a great chance to get more shares on any weakness - at least you can be confident that a significant following in ATN is standing by, so there is every likelihood that once the drilling is underway ATN will be eagerly sought, and my post suggesting multiples of its current price is a real possibility!

I emphasise that ATN remains in the midst of the VWAP for determining the pricing of options likely to be granted to the MD, so its not surprise that the rig and ancillary equipment magically has been delayed further, and that announcement was put out today. I am wondering if ATN has also received a speeding ticket today for its rise in volume and price, even though I am sure you can easily explain it off with the expectation on the previous announcement that the rig is soon expected to commence testing mineralisation extent and tenor.

I would love someone to put out a much more detailed analysis of ATN's price/volume chart. From my amateur reading of it, I have not seen such a great build up to its price move, its not just a one day wonder rising out of oblivion, its been steadily rising now for a few months in anticipation of the Obi project being drill tested - I'm sure that means something in terms of how far the share price can rise to, even if we don't have much recent history other than a couple of spikes that almost tested 10 cents some time back.


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## beatle (14 April 2011)

ATN was surprisingly quite well bid at the open, and despite it falling away at the moment, its performed good on a day when it might have fallen back after yesterdays frantic trading, and a somewhat sombre announcement that the rig is delayed a couple of weeks. But the simple fact is that the project is very exciting, with an entire proved goldfield at ATN's feet, the possibility it could develop into a Gosowong-type epithermal project hanging in the minds of investors, and those investors/traders wanting to get on board before the real action takes place.

Since we are only a few trading days from the Gen Mtg, and likely positive announcements to follow once the directors are set, I still a believe we are looking at a cheap entry price for ATN, with the potential to move multiples of its current share price over the coming months!

AND still lingering in my mind from my several readings of yesterdays announcement that "During this trip Mr Dukovcic was introduced to a number of Chinese businessmen who appeared impressed by the Obi gold project and the Company’s plans and activities." Why did they put that throw away line in the announcement, its the sort of thing that would not be put into an annoucement if it wasn't something material (I would have thought that anyway!). 

With Easter almost upon us, that means the rig will be on Obi Island with only 7 trading days to get set, with the Gen Mtg to intervene and whatever announcements that might follow from that Gen Mtg. Things are looking good IMO . . .


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## beatle (14 April 2011)

Just to correct an inaccurate comment made in my last post re ATN and trading days till Easter:

From tomorrow there are only 5 more trading days before Good Friday, therefore only 5 more trading sessions to go before a likely announcement that the drilling rig has arrived Obi Island and ready to commence drilling below the established goldfield developed by artisanal miners, to a depth of 200 metres.

In addition there are a few more deadlines to consider:
1. The Gen Mtg is on Tues 19 April at 11.00am Perth time, ie only 2 more trading sessions plus 4 hours to go (ie 1 hr today and 3 hrs Tues).
2. The VWAP to consider shares/share options to 2 members of the ATN board is in its third day, ie only 2 more trading days (plus 1 hr today) to go, ending Mon 18 April. 

Both of these deadlines IMO suggest that there is only 2 days available to get shares before the "cat is let out of the bag" so to speak! After the VWAP I would expect that ATN announcements will be more positive in their spin! And with the knowledge that a few more trading days remain thereafter (from time of Gen Mtg until Easter), there is only a few more days to go before drilling annnouncements begin!

This suggests to me that ATN share price is likely to move higher from now on, after consolidating at its current level of around 5.9 - 6 cents.


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## beatle (15 April 2011)

ATN started strongly yesterday, but soon lost momentum and ended up down after is huge upward move the day earlier. But what has significantly changed in that extra day?

-  We know there is a slight delay for when the drilling rig commences testing the already established goldfield on Obi Island,

-   Its one day closer to when the Gen Mtg falls due next Tues (only 2 trading days to go) to enable the directors get set with share or option packages, thus clearing the way for expected positive announcements on ATN's activities, 

-   The closing of the VWAP for determining the exercise price of the option package (only 2 trading days to go). 

And oh yes, we just happen now to be at a historic price for gold with it moving up some US$20/oz overnight!

My view is that we are unlikely to be at this price for ATN within the next few days, as a combination of the company being more predisposed to positive announcements from Tuesday, and the anticipation of the drill rig arriving at Obi Island and commencing its drilling in the following week after we arrive back from our holiday bliss: 

Just remember that from Tuesday next week there is only 4 trading days (if we include Tues itself) to Easter Friday close (and traditionally Thursday before Easter will be a reduced trading session), thus by the time people arrive at work after Easter PLUS ANZAC Day, it will be Wednesday 27 April, the day of the drilling rig arrival on Obi Island, ready to commence drilling!

I don't believe that the huge trading volume on Wednesday (13 odd million shares) is a one day wonder, I think its indicative of pent up demand to be onboard ATN in readiness for when the action begins. And there is every likelihood we will have another day or 2 of that sort of action in the coming week as the date of rig arrival gets closer. 

From my own personal standpoint, I'm not in ATN to get a short rise in price on anticipation of the rig arriving on the Island, I'm in ATN knowing that the drilling is targetting an already established goldfield that has drawn a considerable number of artisanal miners to the area, producing considerable gold of high grade that is winnable by gravity means (and averaging 16 g/t based on sampling of run of mine ore delivered for processing by the small scale miners) - this style and grade of gold mineralisation is exactly what made Gosowong within the same geological environment (and not so far away from Obi Island) a bumper deposit, with resources beyond 5 million ozs of high grade gold - its the type of deposit that the big mining companies prefer to target in their exploration models due to low cost of production and high gold resource potential.


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## beatle (15 April 2011)

ATN is moving up nicely with a bid at 6.3 cents, seems to me people are reticent to let go of stock at current prices - even around last sale price of 6.3 cents its dried up! Looks like 6.4 cents will be the next test . . .

(But honestly, unless you are a nano second share trader why would you sell at the current price knowing what is ahead in the coming weeks!!!).


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## KurwaJegoMac (15 April 2011)

beatle said:


> (But honestly, unless you are a nano second share trader why would you sell at the current price knowing what is ahead in the coming weeks!!!).




MMs could be trying to catch triggers. It's had a pretty good run recently so i'm sure there are a few people going to be caught on the upside.


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## beatle (15 April 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> MMs could be trying to catch triggers. It's had a pretty good run recently so i'm sure there are a few people going to be caught on the upside.




Hi KurwaJegoMac, presumably you are out of the stock again? (Can you explain what you mean by "MMs could be trying to catch triggers.", I have no idea what that means (and what is an MMs?), but I assume your post is suggesting its going to fall in price from here?). I will of course disagree with you, for the various reasons I have put forward in the last few days. Above all, the fundamental reason that the project is one of the best raw gold projects, in an already proven gold province, with substantial following means that trading in and out of the stock might not be the best strategy!

And of course, I remain firmly invested in ATN and certainly have no reason to want to get out at this cheap level, I don't worry about the short term downs that might occur, I have patience, and I back my view based on fundamental judgement on the project. That's why I will hold it for a much longer run than technical traders who don't want to care about the fundamentals of the Obi project.


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## beatle (15 April 2011)

An interesting end to trading for ATN today - after slowly building its way up to 6.2 cents during the session, and testing 6.4 cents briefly, it was almost a stalemate in the last 20 minutes, until a bit of late buying took it towards 6.3 cents, then DUMP, 1.9 million shares were slammed from 6.2 cents all the way down to 5.9 cents, at 3.59 (plus 22 seconds) with less than a minute to go till matching up at the close! Not sure why someone would unload that many shares other than its probably one of those nanosecond traders (lol) who don't want (or can't afford?) to hold shares more than a split second. Anyways, its a way to get some more shares more cheaply at the open next Monday!

And remember, Monday coming is the LAST chance to get shares BEFORE the VWAP ends, and the following day is the Gen Mtg, which is likely to be the starting point for the company to become positive with its news announcements to follow on drilling of Obi Island! But since there were 7.1 million shares traded to day, at an average price of 6.1 cents I probably don't need to remind those in the market for ATN shares what is going on.

All I know is that I can't wait for the fireworks to begin, soon we will have ended the entre, and then starts the main course . . .

Have a good weekend all!


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## KurwaJegoMac (16 April 2011)

beatle said:


> Hi KurwaJegoMac, presumably you are out of the stock again? (Can you explain what you mean by "MMs could be trying to catch triggers.", I have no idea what that means (and what is an MMs?), but I assume your post is suggesting its going to fall in price from here?). I will of course disagree with you, for the various reasons I have put forward in the last few days. Above all, the fundamental reason that the project is one of the best raw gold projects, in an already proven gold province, with substantial following means that trading in and out of the stock might not be the best strategy!




Hi Beatle, no I am not out of the stock yet - still looks good from my T/A perspective. Besides, someone needs to keep you company on these forums ;P

Seriously though, I am still holding. What I was referring to was MMs = Market Makers. As you know, a lot of investors/traders use conditional stops - often based on volatility or areas of support or resistance. MMs can see an aggregated view of these orders and can therefore see if theres pent up demand/supply and can take advantage of it. 

So lets just say there are a lot of conditional buys at .60, .61, .62 and a little at .63 and .64. The MM can see strong demand at levels .60-.62 and weak demand at .63-.64. The MM puts in a few buys of their own and pushes the bid to .60 - this in turn begins executing the .60 buy orders. The MM buys a little more on the back of the conditional buys being executed and the price is pushed to .61 and triggers the next wave of orders. 

This starts a chain reaction with day traders and breakout traders jumping in due to the strong price action. The MM starts to sell off his holdings at .62 and makes sure he's out by .63/.64 as they are weak supply levels. Professional traders with a good eye on market depth do similar tactics - often termed as 'testing the market'


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## beatle (17 April 2011)

Thanks KurwaJegoMac, I’m most grateful for your explanation (and yes your company in here is very welcome, its an eerie thread at ATN, with lots of viewers – another 650 views this week - but rarely any other posting!). I’m also glad to know you're still in ATN - I remain firmly of the view that we're yet to see the main event with ATN play out, not just in the coming week but as the drilling activity progresses on Obi Island in the following weeks and once results are announced some months down the track.

Your explanation makes sense and seems like you were spot on with that dump of 1.9 million shares at the close, forcing the price down from 6.2 cents to 5.9 cents with less than 40 seconds before market close and matching began. Its hard to think of another reason why you'd sell ATN when clearly the demand is insatiable for the stock at present. 

While I have already outlined the reasons in other posts why timing at present is very relevant, that may well be magnified at the open on Monday, not only for ATN but the whole market, based on latest financial news overseas:

1. Gold/silver markets were up strongly in the US, with gold up 0.9% to US$1,486/oz and silver up to US$43/oz;

2. Dow was up 56 pts (+0.46%) and S&P up 5.1 pts (+0.39%), and Dow Futures up 75 pts (+0.61%) and S&P Futures up 8.5 pts (+0.65%);

3. US economic/financial news being positive and no other issues seeming to develop throughout the world of any significance to affect markets negatively (at this stage!).

I think this trading environment is perfect for ATN to perform very well in the coming week, with the added bonus that we only have 4 (really 3  ½) trading days left before we go on a 5 day break for Easter/Anzac Day, then get back to work as ATN announces the drill rig has arrived on Obi and about to commence drilling.


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## beatle (18 April 2011)

ATN has had a fairly ordinary start this week, although it looked promising at the open - and I keep this in a relative sense, as its in fact up 3.39% at the moment (but as you will note I consider that dump the last trade last week as being artificial anyways!).

Now that the VWAP is almost set for the MD's option package and less than a day from the Gen Mtg, its unlikely we will see anything negative come out today in terms of news from the company. Will anyone be attending the meeting tomorrow, and can post anything mentioned that is not reported formally through the usual announcement that follows? (I wonder for instance if they will actually give a presentation of the project, in which case they will put out such a release prior to the meeting, probably tomorrow morning although late this afternoon is a possibility).

Now its up to ATN to stir the market . . .


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## beatle (18 April 2011)

ATN's release to the market a short while ago surprised me, and surprised me very pleasantly! I did expect a positive statement about the road ahead with drilling etc, but certainly didn't expect this fantastic confirmation of the earlier drilling results by BHP/Aneka Tambang. And the quoted mineralised intercepts give me more confidence with that future drilling outcome, viz:-

"9.15 m @ 26.25 g/t, in hole AOD 09, from 38.0 m
13.70 m @ 6.13 g/t, in hole AOD 10, from 39.4 m
2.20 m @ 15.20 g/t, in hole AOD 07, from 78.6 m".

But what I really find exciting is the following comment, which suggests that the main artisanal workings are not the only potential zone for significant mineralisation:-

"The Company has been unable to accurately confirm the location of these holes, there being some discrepancies in hole coordinates and, more importantly, azimuth." ....
.... "Hole collars have been located in the field and it is evident that in a number of cases the holes are located away from the main focus of current artisanal diggings and on some occasions have been orientated away from the zone of main workings. PT Obi Minerals targeted its drilling on the basis of the results of its soil sampling and trenching programmes, and without the benefit of active artisanal workings."

Its going to be an exciting time with the drilling ahead - and that should be reflected in positive statements from ATN in the coming weeks, exciting the market and pushing the share price up IMO.


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## PT Cruiser (18 April 2011)

Not sure whether I would describe the Release as a particularly exciting or positive statement, however, am watching the stock with great interest!


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## beatle (18 April 2011)

PT Cruiser said:


> Not sure whether I would describe the Release as a particularly exciting or positive statement, however, am watching the stock with great interest!




Thanks for the post PT Cruiser, good to know you are watching ATN at the moment.

Whilst I'm not sure whether you follow the fundamental information so much, I do get excited when I read those sorts of intersections, particularly with the thought that they may well be away from where there are artisanal workings. If you don't find that release as being positive, maybe you can share your thoughts as to why not? And of course I respect your view, even if I don't share it, thats the good thing about having an open forum such as ASF to compare views and discuss commonality and differences as well.


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## PT Cruiser (19 April 2011)

I guess I was just hoping for some more definitive news. So long as ATN can sort out discrepancies in their findings and further tests in these new areas prove what the report is suggesting, then it would certainly be a positive. I am holding ATN, but not in large quantities at this stage.


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## beatle (19 April 2011)

Thanks PT Cruiser for your view, lets hope (my) positive stance to this latest announcement translates into a shared view as the drilling proceeds.

I notice that ATN has just replied to an ASX query, which is a most strange sort of general letter seeking to ask why the share price has risen on increased volume over the recent past - its almost like a "slow" speeding ticket, lol! I could think of so many other companies that sort of question could be directed to, but little ATN got the query - very unusual, but of course an opportunity for ATN to give a bit more publicity to its Obi Island project.

The other part of the query related to the comment about the Chinese investment interest, whilst the MD was in China recently. I must admit that I also found it an interesting throw-away line in that previous announcement, and whilst the company did state there was no direct investment discussions underway with Chinese investors at the moment, I'm sure that could be a possibility in the future - particularly as they progress their processing requirements for the artisanal area!

The increase in gold price overnight might not be enough to have the gold explorers/producers in the market stave off a pull back, but for sure its an opportunity to get cheap shares if there is a rout!


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## beatle (19 April 2011)

Did someone attend the ATN Gen Mtg today, and if so was there anything of note discussed, other than the formal proceedings? I assume that ATN would not have made a technical presentation at the meeting other than what may have been released to the market over the past couple of weeks, otherwise it would have been prepared as an ASX release for the market, but it is possible that some technical information was discussed. Any post on this would be appreciated please...

ATN has held up quite well today knowing the general carnage on the market today, and in fact I was getting ready to buy some more ATN in the event that it fell much lower than where it has gone to. I may well still get some more . . .


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## beatle (20 April 2011)

With the Easter holidays almost upon us we have only a couple of trading sessions before ATN will likely have its drilling rig arrive on Obi Island and soon thereafter commencing its drilling program - although markets are very volatile at the moment, its likely that ATN share price will move positively once that news is confirmed - especially if the company can provide an update of that drilling as it progresses. If on the other hand ATN weakens, then I will personally be topping up!


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## beatle (20 April 2011)

Some late fireworks to ATN's share price is encouraging, up 0.5 cents (+8.6%)! I find it encouraging as it clearly demonstrates that the demand for shares, with all information now on the table, remains strong!

Next will be the main course, with the drilling due to commence within the next week with all drilling equipment expected to arrive Obi Island on 27 April.


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## mgm1a (20 April 2011)

well theres no justice in the world..my _small_ holding here up 36% in 2 weeks and my other, bigger, gold holding that you know about beatle is up 26% over hugely longer time slot. 

The trading is beyond the apparent depth..the buy depth not being backfilled but buyers peeling away at the sellers.

Regarding the ASX query yesterday..fits with my observation that this company attracts so many queries! Their casual comment about the Chinese interest in what the company was doing would not have been as naive as a comment made by you or I .  . It was cleverly motivated at exciting market.

GL


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## beatle (21 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, its great to see you are still in ATN and enjoying the ride - I had assumed you were out after the last little flutter upwards, with no post recently!

As to your comment about the relativities of the returns Mgm1a, yes its hard to work it out, but it seems that is where the chartists have got it over us fundamentalists - in ATN's case its a never stoppable upward trend, therefore stick with the trend. (In the other case the trend is all over the shop, so its a much less predictable ride - BUT it WILL eventually take us higher).

As to the Chinese comment, yes I believe that where there is smoke, there is fire! I was particularly interested to note the urgent need for that buyer of 1 million shares to get his fill yesterday (its similar to the irrational bidding that I have seen with some other stocks that eventually got support from Chinese in some way!). He put the bid in place prior to the closing auction, and at (I think initially 6.2 cents - I'm getting so old now I am forgetting some details from time to time!), then he moved it to 6.3 cents once some of that on offer had been taken out (presumably by others), which took out some of his own bid then he moved it up to 6.4 cents at the auction, and some bigger offers matched his bid and he got his fill. I was surprised to see his urgent need to buy yesterday, clearly he didn't know what was going to happen to overseas and commodity markets, its as if he knew something was about to happen, so I am interested to see if some news comes out today, but surely thats unlikely.

BUT, I wonder if the reason for the MD's visit to china was twofold (or 3 fold!), for both looking at processing facilities for Obi, then to meet with some aggressive base metals company with regards to ATN's other asset at Mt Webb? (And at that meeting, if one occurred maybe they became aware of the Obi asset!). So thats just my wondering, nothing other than that, but since ATN is a speculator's paradise, surely we can speculate on such! It might be completely off the track, but its some fire added to the smoke we have observed.

As to investment in ATN for Obi, personally I believe its one of the most exciting RAW exploration plays around at the moment, as the potential uplift for the share price in the event of some huge hits in the upcoming drilling is massive, and the fact that such a large artisanal mining population has been supported by this goldfield suggests to me that the mineralised system is extensive, and that is also supported by the knowledge that the vein systems plus brecciation can be traced along structure for some kilometres! 

But it is also considerable speculation, so you can't do your homework on it so easily and thoroughly like you can with our other mutual investment, Mgm1a.


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## beatle (21 April 2011)

From an uninformed shareholder holding on for dear life - what the heck is going on with ATN today?

Its share price just skyrocketed from 6.4 cents to 7.0 cents in a few minutes, then went back to 6.5 cents, all offers and bids nervously pulled and re-cast at various prices in between those limits. 

Does someone know whats going on?


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## PT Cruiser (21 April 2011)

No idea but am fascinated by it, surely another ASX Query on the way!


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## beatle (21 April 2011)

Even if an ASX query is on the way its an opportunity to re-iterate what ATN has got that others only can wish they had:
1. A proven artisanal goldfield;
2. Confirmed drilling results by BHP of significant large intercepts of high grade gold;
3. Surface exposures confirming continuation of similar structures and lithologies extending way beyond the area mined to date;
4. A drill rig about to commence a diamond drilling program testing the artisanal area.

What have I left out? Oh, yeah - a screaming share price with a solid base formed already, but thats why the ASX would be asking the questions, if it indeed its going to.

Just imagine the sharetrading when the drilling begins, surely the rumours that might fly, whether true or false, could send this ballistic! (Ok I am excited again, but its possibly the beginning of company transformation for ATN).


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## beatle (21 April 2011)

What an amazing end of the week for ATN, with it today moving up 0.06 cents up 9.37%, to close at 7.0 cents after very briefly touching 7.1 cents. I feel vindicated in my watching closely over it the last couple of weeks, and I have no doubt that we are due to get more fireworks from it in the coming weeks, as the drilling proceeds.

What has impressed me is the level of demand for the stock by some (one, group?) that seems to be aggressively picking at it in a manner that does not suggest its just the normal daytrader activity - I would like to hear of anyone else's views on the subject. 

ATN has made my week, and I hope all the viewers to the ATN thread are also in the stock - I wish you all a good Easter.


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## spongebob (21 April 2011)

beatle said:


> What an amazing end of the week for ATN, with it today moving up 0.06 cents up 9.37%, to close at 7.0 cents after very briefly touching 7.1 cents. I feel vindicated in my watching closely over it the last couple of weeks, and I have no doubt that we are due to get more fireworks from it in the coming weeks, as the drilling proceeds.
> 
> What has impressed me is the level of demand for the stock by some (one, group?) that seems to be aggressively picking at it in a manner that does not suggest its just the normal daytrader activity - I would like to hear of anyone else's views on the subject.
> 
> ATN has made my week, and I hope all the viewers to the ATN thread are also in the stock - I wish you all a good Easter.




Thanks mate, and you too. I am holder of this stock and happy with the run thus far, however I was tempted today to sell, I may hold and see what happens


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## mgm1a (22 April 2011)

I was looking back over the 18/11 ann and looking at volumes prior to the ann to buy Obi. There doesn't seem to be any lift in volume, no leaks and no mention in the previosu qtrly (Sept) report. Good sign.

 I was wondering how long it would have taken them to get the samples to an assay lab and wait for results - they had them 18/11. How far back would they have got them and sent off to the lab??


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## beatle (22 April 2011)

Hi SpongeBob and great to get your post. I understand your dilemma with regard to an exit, and of course its always a very personal decision based on your own situation and motivation. Having been investing in spec shares for more than 40 years now I am not immune from the same decision, and often I make the wrong decision, but as long as you make it with the knowledge you are happy with the outcome then just don't look back. ATN has risen well in the past few months, and I take comfort from the ever-rising upward trend, and knowing that the best is probably still to come I certainly have no intention of exiting at this time - ATN is a situation stock, and its just entering its situation IMO, and with my confidence of the particular project fundamentals I believe its got very reason to increase with price. 
At the same time, I am surprised with the last couple of days performance, and I have wondered if there is an announcement, possibly even unrelated to Obi, that is being prepared. But thats just a speculation of mine to try to rationalise the trading activity, and since ATN is a pure spec we sure are allowed to speculate on what might be happening! 

Mgm1a, I agree with you that the timing of the Obi acquisition seems to have been watertight, regardless of when those samples were analysed, and if you look closely at it, the volume and price really only started its upward ascent the day after the announcement of Obi. And since then its been on an ever uphill run! A few chances for a breather, but certainly an impressive looking chart for an amateur like me. As to your direct question of the timing of samples, we can only speculate since the trip was not known about at the time, and since the trading followed the announcement, its all in order IMO.

I would add one other element to the tightness of the company, which I am sure you are probably well aware of - the Chairman, Rick Crabb, is certainly a man of high integrity, and a very well respected commercial lawyer and company director, and Chairman of the $2.85 billion Paladin!!! He has a reputation to protect and certainly would not be one to push trading leaks - in fact I have known Rick for many years and believe he is actually quite conservative but confident in his manner, so he certainly is someone I personally trust and have supreme confidence in - I wonder if his involvement is part of the reason that ATN has such a strong investor following at present - success breeds success, and that makes money!

One final thought, as recent as June 2010 ATN made it known in the Qtrly report: " ...The Company continues to investigate new opportunities in Australia and overseas, whether in its own right or in joint venture, targeting gold and copper mineralisation. Specifically, the Company is seeking a major gold project that meets its strategic criteria, namely, demonstrated gold mineralisation, under explored and of a large size.” ATN made that statement and it has delivered a gold project that could become a huge company maker, and I value a company that makes a statement then delivers within a reasonable timeframe!

We have many things going for us at ATN, the general market is buoyed, commodities are at or close to record levels (gold is at record levels, silver is close to an all-time high, copper also is up), the drill rig is almost ready to commence, and the share price has continued to trend higher ....


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## mgm1a (22 April 2011)

happy easter all. golden eggs all round..
beatle thanks for insight re Rick Crabb - checked him out - the directors have been supporting co. raisings last 3 years, not much buying outside those. The value of his ATN holding in order of $5M-ish, which is probably going to give his  $14m-ish a run.
He is director of PDN since 1994. As I may have said before I like businesses that have long termers to deliver on the vision.

Yes his credence and the stability of the SP will inevitably be great value with next big cap.raise, and will be major point for getting insto support. 
Still my concern is knowing if its run too far too fast......


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## beatle (23 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, and agree with your points about Rick Crabb and the directors long term involvement with ATN. I know that they are all committed to make this work, and the MD is actually very confident that the project will come up trumps, and I believe that the decision to set up the MD with a large option package is their belief that this project will really fly with resulting increase in the share price.

As for capital raisings, at the moment ATN has got $3.5 million cash in bank and they are budgetting for around $1 million in the coming months for exploration at Obi and clearly this exploration is a pre-cursor to lots more activities on the Island if the project has the goods. Assuming that potential is delivered then clearly the share price will be a lot higher than it is now, so dilution is unlikely to be huge, esp knowing that they have some very wealthy backers in the wings! Its a bit like ROL in that respect, it delivered with the first drilling on Romang Island and the huge elevation in share price enabled them to raise considerable funds without any significant dilution. I understand that ATN is not looking to raise cash at the moment anyways, it has sufficient to keep the activity up until the project is considerably more advanced.

As for how far ATN has moved, I agree that its acceleration in share price has increased in the past week, and I guess its only natural to expect it come back to earth in coming weeks from a general share trading point of view, all stocks do that, but knowing the fundamentals and the timing of what is happening at the moment with the drilling etc, I can see ATN continue in its upward trajectory for the next few weeks. 

I would love someone who has much more knowledge on the technical trading aspects post on ATN, but in the absence of that, I think the 2 key points are:
1. ATN is now at a key level, of 7.0 cents, which is a resistance level from recent past history, and therefore a break up from that will be seen as extremely bullish - how far above 7.0 cents it has to go to achieve that I'm not sure, but certainly if we hit 7.5 cents on continuing high volume surely it will be very positive.
2. ATN's chart over the past few months now since getting Obi has seen it break a number of key resistance levels, all on relatively good volume, and its upward trajectory is well-estabished, with a solid base developed before that move upwards. That upward trend is unlikely to be broken in coming weeks knowing what is ahead of the company, even if there is some pause to its movement.

I'm still a holder, and intend to hold shares in ATN for more than a short term, fundamentally I can see it having considerable success with the drilling, backed with the confidence of both the artisanal mining AND the historic BHP drilling, plus the geological evidence that the vein sets and brecciation that is characteristic of the gold mineralisation on Obi extends way beyond the artisanal mining area, for some kilometres! My hopes are that it will be testing around 16 cents in the next couple of weeks, and with large drilling intercepts achieved it could really excite the market and move upwards towards 25 - 30 cents if the general market conditions remain as strong as currently (ie general bullish share market environment, plus high to record gold/silver prices in US$). Of course, thats just IMO!!!


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## beatle (26 April 2011)

According to ATN's last update the drilling rig arrival on Obi Island is due tomorrow, 27th April, with drilling expected to commence shortly thereafter, targetting the vein sets within the artisanal mining area initially, and stepping out from that area. Based on that recent past mining and the historic BHP drilling we should expect to see some good intersections announced in due course, but of course the time lag between drilling and those announcements will be something to consider. IF visible gold is observed in the diamond drillcore you can bet there will be some interesting times ahead, but visible gold even in high grade deposits is hard to find with the drilling, you have to be very lucky or the gold has to be exceedingly high grade to see lots of it in core. Here's hoping...

On another front, since I began posting a few weeks ago there has been quite a few views made on this website on this thread (views has increased from 120 odd views to 2,460 odd views). To me that is heartening news, it means that people are interested to follow the story, its a shame there aren't more who want to post on the thread, but surely in time that will follow by posting as well.


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## mgm1a (26 April 2011)

Hey beatle..couple of things to ponder.

First, the ann. 18/4 re results from BHP/PT aneka Tambang days makes me wonder if they had these results when they negotiated the deal late last year. I would have expected them to have been passed down through owners since, then to PT Eka Samudra Nusantara...surely the locals would have bought tenement based on the value (i.e. results) ? In some respect if ATN truly established these recently with hard evidence it crystallises a teeny bit of the risk since Nov'10.

Second, BHP work based on soil and trenching work...how would you rate that in terms of other technologies that will be brought to bear. Is there a possibility that the results and artisanal activity, as good as they are, do not in any way extent of the project size that modern geopyshicy thingimies will display?

Third, i re-read Tom D's recent reply to ASX - classic in many ways and very much of the school that I like - using the occassion to do the PR.... e.g.

"The facts have not changed" ..lol .....there take that you silly oafs

"we expect to experience similar such support and demand for our securities as news of our activities continues to spread"...confident bordering cockiness ??

Nothing to talk about here, just the annoucements, so I guess that is why its specualtive!


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## beatle (27 April 2011)

Hi Mgm1a, hope you and all other readers had a good Easter/Anzac break, its been a long time since our last trading session!

As to your question regarding the timing/etc of the announcement and the actual time when ATN received the BHP report. I guess without any inside knowledge its easy to speculate but hard to know the facts on when management became aware of the report, but from my past personal experience its not unusual to slowly pick up pieces of the puzzle of past information as time goes by. IF the information had been available at the time of them signing up the deal I would have thought ATN would have been very happy to announce it earlier, but then that's just my own view. 

What I do wonder about is the exact location of the holes - from what I can make out, it appears the report didn't have the longitude and latitude of specific holes (which is possible, but it usually appears in either an appendix attached to the report or in another report), or was on a local grid, and it seems that ATN has scouted with the benefit of local knowledge to locate the individual holes in the field without knowing particular hole information. Or maybe ATN does have more information about relative location of holes and the assays for each of the outlying holes (assuming that some holes are far from the artisanal mining area) ....

As to your question about the geophysical methods and how they rate compared to geochem methods that BHP used earlier on, I must admit that I am not the expert on more recent geophysical technology and advances that clearly have progressed tons since I was a practising geologist (and most geologists still confer to geophysicists when it comes to determining a particular technology). I would make the general comment though that all geophysical methods rely on a particular property of the rocks and therefore it depends upon the certain mineralisation style as to whether geophysical methods will have any affect, thus it relies on things such as presence of magnetite, or massive sulphides or particular clay alteration products or radioactivity for them to work effectively, and this Obi style of gold mineralisation being possibly a vein/quartz association, possibly with some sulphides, might not provide an obvious geophysical response.

On the other hand geochem methods tend to have a better direct association with mineralisation, and are also easier/cheaper and faster to carry out (unless you have a scintillometer hand gun for radiation work etc). 

As to the PR side of things, I agree that ATN has a good turn of phrase in its announcements, and I have no doubt that it will be very opportunistic in its attempt to get the news out to all, especially if the ASX provide the opportunity via speeding tickets (lol!). I still wonder if the smoke with regard to the passing observation that the chinese were interested in the Obi Island property will finally turn into fire some time! (I am wondering if we will see a substantial shareholder notice come in from some group in due course - again another speculation of mine!).


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## beatle (27 April 2011)

I'm surprised that ATN has an announcement out first thing this morning about directors increased shareholding, instead I had expected an announcement confirming arrival of the drill rig on Obi Island. Therefore I assume it unlikely that the rig arrival announcement will come today - most companies prefer significant announcements to have a higher priority and to be released first. 

Of course it may have been that ATN don't expect to get news through about the status of the rig until later in the week - which means shares might continue to trade at this slightly lower level until we get the news later on in the week. But once we know that the rig is on the island and getting ready for drilling then the last of the uncertainty is removed about drilling.


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## Logique (27 April 2011)

Interesting story in the making here. 
Liking the prospect of the newly-acquired Obi Gold Project in  Indonesia, and the increased gold exposure from the option on fields at Yea in Vic. There is also the Mt Webb copper project in Western Australia. 
Thought it was worth a small entry today, it will be an interesting one to follow.


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## beatle (28 April 2011)

Hi Longique, great to get your post on ATN, and I thought it might be worthwhile giving my view of some of the things that you have noted:

Firstly, I believe that the ATN board has decided that Obi Island is likely to be the future for the company, with the potential for substantial gold resources and significant low cost gold production to follow, of course always subject to confirmation drilling just about to be embarked upon. The potential appears enormous.

Mt Webb, which is a huge project in itself, unfortunately appears to require a considerable amount of cash for ongoing exploration, despite it also having the potential to be a major project. And its in the right metal, copper, with forecast world supply/demand metrics suggesting a future bright outlook for copper price in coming years. From ATN's own admission in its quarterly activities report ("Mt Webb IOCG, WA
The Company has progressed negotiations with a potential joint venture partner to fund future exploration of this promising large project in far eastern Western Australia. A detailed announcement is expected to be made once an agreement is signed, which is expected to occur in the March quarter.") - it appears that it is close to completing a major farm-out of that project, and could potentially be the wildcard with respect to the chinese (speculation on my part only!), and it could also provide a reason for substantial corporate interest by a major as well! 

(Once again my speculation, but I'm sure that if Obi work had advanced further ATN would probably love to retain full ownership of Mt Webb as it has some fantastic exploration intercepts, such as :
"PKC024 - 246m@0.22%Cu, from 4m, incl 12m@1.1%Cu from 168m, and 2m @ 2.47%Cu from 36 m." and
"221 m @ 0.12% Cu, from 0 m to end of hole, in PKC021, incl 44 m @ 0.30% Cu from 66 m;
220 m @ 0.11% Cu, from 0 m to end of hole, in PKC022, incl 16 m @ 0.45% Cu from 188 m.
299 m @ 0.10% Cu, from 0 m to end of hole, in PKC017".

In due course as I believe it will play out, ATN is likely to have a large cashflow provider from Obi Island, and that would have been ideal to fund the ongoing exploration work at Mt Webb, but I think the different timelines will unfortunately cause the company to make a big decison with respect to Mt Webb.

Yea has now been drilled and based on ATN's comment recently it appears that the project has been downgraded and unlikely to continue within the portfolio.


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## Logique (28 April 2011)

Hi Beatle,
copper I agree has a strong future, with forecasted world shortages. Sounds like the announcement of a JV partner for Mt Webb can't be too far away, that will be a positive for the company. Too bad about the competing timeline with the development of Obi, but a nice problem to have I suppose, given the potential at Mt Webb.
Appreciating your research work on ATN.


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## KurwaJegoMac (28 April 2011)

Just thought i'd pop by and say hello - sorry Beatle I haven't been giving you much love lately. Took some time off over the Easter break - hope you and others had a good one.

Still sitting on ATN and liking the price action. Momentum is increasing in both the stock and the number of views (and posters!). Positive sentiment is always a wonderful thing


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## beatle (29 April 2011)

Hi KurwaJegoMac and Logique, really great to have a few others (including Mgm1a) also posting on ATN, even if its from time to time. It encourages me to keep posting too, but since I've been an ATN holder for a while now and intend to hold for a longer time when the extent of Obi becomes known to all, I guess I'm hooked anyway.

I'm a bit disappointed that we haven't already got that big piece of news out, but heartened that despite not getting it that the price has gone ok, and in fact if you're interested in seeing a more responsible chart I guess its healthy to have a slight pause, and it seems that yesterdays slight backward step will make the overall upward trend even more believable in the coming weeks. I have no doubt that it will go back up and re-test the 7.0 cents resistance in the next few trading sessions when the market becomes aware that the rig is ready to start drilling.

And whatever other news that ATN might surprise us with (positively!).

Go ATN, you know you can do it, in anticipation ...


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## mgm1a (3 May 2011)

Now why would they be doing an "investor" presentation if they weren't going to do a CR sometime. 
Note the calculation of the 1Moz Target 

I see the contractor invoved with Weda Bay - i found this 

French Mining and metallurgical group, Eramet, continues to study the bankable feasibility of Weda Bay Nickel, Halmahera with its partners Mitsubishi Corporation and state miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM). Meanwhile, Eramet posted â‚¬454 million of net profit for the 2010 fiscal year.

The company expects annual output of 65,000 tons, under a twostage framework, first phase corresponding to 35,000 tons of nickel produced per year. Mining resources were again revised significantly upwards.
....

PT Weda Bay Nickel, member of Eramet, is based in Canada which managed the Weda project. The project is expected to cost around US$4 billion.

Nice neighbours even if isn't gold


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## mr. jeff (3 May 2011)

mgm1a said:


> Now why would they be doing an "investor" presentation if they weren't going to do a CR sometime.
> Note the calculation of the 1Moz Target
> 
> I see the contractor invoved with Weda Bay - i found this
> ...




with you there on the CR its only waiting for the drilling to start to prop up the price then they'll slide it in. Do they have capital arrangements for the development of processing gear  which their timeline states will start now ?


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## beatle (4 May 2011)

Hi guys, good to see a couple of posts in the last days. 

Just a comment on some of your points Mgm1a - I'm not sure what you had in mind regarding Weda Bay Nickel etc? Can you elaborate when you refer to the contractor being involved please?

With the suggestion on the CR, I don't think that its that soon actually. I spoke a few weeks ago with Tom re ATN financial position, and confirmed the company had sufficient funds in hand to carry out exploration over the following months, certainly sufficient to cover for the next 12 months exploration unless they ramp up the activity if the results justify it (in which case the share price will likely fly anyway!). The capex involved with the gravity equipment is not seen as a big ticket item, as they are looking at relatively low cost items that will allow gravity concentration of the gold, I understand there is no intention to bring in any higher cost milling or crushing equipment unless the project flies at a seriously higher level for the artisanal area.
(Note that ATN has got $3.5 million cash at the moment).

I'm disappointed that the drill rig has been delayed till around 7 May, another week again (seems to be getting bit of a habit!), so we shall see if its a correct estimate or not. Its no point especting it to happen though until we get the word from the company. 

Fortunately Mgm1a, I understand that ATN is not held, at least in substantial holdings, by Matthews Capital nor Bank of America, so its probably not got the same reins holding it back like some other gold explorers we are aware of!


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## mgm1a (4 May 2011)

Thanks for the tid-bits beatle.
My reference to Weda bay was following the comment in p2 of recent Qtrly Activity about the driller - experienced, expat Aussie and obviously in big league with project on nearby Halmahera - it all helps - you never know who talks to who and then it leads to.....also shows the prospectivity of the region.

Why wouldn't have BP done anything with it? Hmm?


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## beatle (5 May 2011)

Thanks for the clarification Mgm1a re the contractor involved with the Ni laterite project in Halmahera. Obi Island does have considerable ni laterites, and on a neighbouring Island (not sure of its name but its a small island located about 0.5 kms off Obi) I recall seeing a landing site for mining (presumably) of nickel laterites, and the side of the hill having a haircut! (I assume the haircut represented a stripping of surface vegetation involved pre mining of the laterite).

I guess the big upside to this unrelated mining activity is that it means there is a significant mining culture to that part of the indonesia (of a significant level, with Aneka Tambang involved in that neighbouring Island to Obi) and therefore any new major project such as this possible gold project of ATN's would not be a foreign intervention in the region at all.

Lets hope the drill arrives in the couple of days time that its expected (7th May)


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## beatle (5 May 2011)

For those in ATN at the moment and being a bit concerned with the recent trading down to 5.2 cents through this morning, just be aware that a lot of the lower trades were crosses. Whilst it might just be coincidental and with unrelated parties buying to those selling, it could also be that the buyers are trying to temp panic sellers lower and to sell out - and note the timing is important, its possible that the drilling rig will be on Obi Island over the weekend, so that there will be an announcement to such effect early on next week.....
I'm sitting and watching, wondering whether I should buy some more at this level, it could be a bargain that never comes again! (but of course it might not be too, lol!).


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## Logique (5 May 2011)

No weak hands here beatle.

I have a buy order in, not a sell.  Not Robinson Crusoe looking at the depth.


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## mr. jeff (9 May 2011)

No news today still... but at one point up 10% which is interesting. Looks like some people are quietly confident in ATN still. I am in no way implying anything else, however I thought a drill rig would be pretty hard to lose track of, it can't get stuck in between cushions on the couch...
nevertheless, the ground is going to be good to open up. How much historical data are they intending to confirm or are they going to go straight in and plug the veins fro fresh info? It looks to me in the drill schedule that they are looking at following the fault line for extents and confirming the drill holes already known. 
I can see now in their latest update that they intend to remove all the villagers using hammers and replace them with some basic crushing machinery to get up to 20 kOz/annum which would be $7.5M/quarter before costs, after drilling is completed. low cost operation, but have to recover the drilling, and EL costs / heads of agreement payments as well (already budgeted for). why would they be planning on 20kOz/annum if the resource is going to be 1Moz + ? is this a side operation for the other miners or a small cash generator for the drilling ....??


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## beatle (10 May 2011)

Hi Mr Jeff, good questions you ask and comments made!

I too am surprised we haven't seen an announcement confirming arrival of the rig on Obi but assume its happening at present, and since it was previously announced that the MD was flying to site (via a slow boat, lol) to greet the rig I presume thats the reason for the delay in providing the news. Actually your observation about the share price still being supported seems to me is certainly some expectation of the rig either there or close to being there now! (Its also a leaky boat, lol, just imagine what will happen to the share price if visible gold in core is leaked out, of course subject to that happening!). 

About the artisanal mining area, from what has been announced so far ATN is working out a far more efficient processing route for them that also takes out the mercury, but since the artisanals are theoretically restricted to the top zone only, I think its the top 25 metres only (despite earlier diggings going down to 50 metres in places) then ATN are providing the procession for that initial phase of mining/processing within the artisanal area, of which ATN shares 25% of the profits. Thats how I read it.

The bigger 1 million oz resource of course is another story, for ATN to mine and develop in a proper and more cost effective manner with conventional mining/processing etc.


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## Logique (10 May 2011)

Logique said:


> ..I have a buy order in, not a sell.



Wanted it to go lower, but it wouldn't cooperate. Oh well, a bigger parcel, roll on the rig arrival.


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## beatle (11 May 2011)

Hi Logique, do you have any idea of what's happening on the ground now, and if the rig has arrived or still floating around somewhere?


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## Logique (12 May 2011)

Don't know Beatle,
I had a look at the website, nothing there either, so it's hurry up and wait I guess.


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## beatle (13 May 2011)

Thanks Logique. At least prices have started to bounce so thats a good sign.


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## mr. jeff (19 May 2011)

beatle said:


> Thanks Logique. At least prices have started to bounce so thats a good sign.




I see patience wilting.
I see opportunity for those with good sized .... risk tolerant accounts.
I don't see a drill rig anywhere with ATN, Obi written on it. I do not like this lack of information!
 I expect that barring any negative motions in the overall market, then this rig announcement will not see a wash out anymore, but probably a fresh round of buying, perhaps less strong than before this risk aversion period. Could be a good thing.


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## beatle (19 May 2011)

I couldn't agree more with you Mr Jeff. Its got me beat why there is no news from ATN at the moment, and can only assume that they left the key to the engine on the other island (lol!).

ONCE the rig is actually on Obi and operating it would be nice to be informed, and as you say Mr Jeff, seems like the market has already removed any premium on the expectation of drilling thus its unlikely it will be a "buy no the rumour and sell on the fact" (although if the news is not squeaky clean perhaps we will see bit of a run up on price before the rig arrival announcement). That is of course ASSUMING there is going to be a rig arriving on Obi!!!


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## KurwaJegoMac (19 May 2011)

Agreed Mr. Jeff.

I sold out - not liking the chart right now. Will keep it on the radar if it comes off these lows strongly.

But with a lack of news and demand waning, I'm struggling to see an upside.


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## PT Cruiser (23 May 2011)

Starting to really wonder what's going on with ATN, rig was due at Obi over 2 weeks ago... Since then not a peep.


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## PT Cruiser (23 May 2011)

A peep not two hours later, doesn't give much away but at least it's positive


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## mr. jeff (23 May 2011)

Are you kidding?! the rig finally arrived - I thought it had definitely fallen overboard during some rough weather and they were trying to find another one before anyone noticed...
Let the drilling being, we are going straight into the vein and reporting nuggets all round for the faithful!

Good luck to all holders, now we have something to look forward to.


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## mr. jeff (30 May 2011)

A mention in "Pure Speculation" this morning about the rig arriving at Obi.
Nothing more on that front. 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-harsher-reality/story-e6frg9ex-1226065155648

Should be hearing this week of a drill bit biting into their prospective ground.. Good luck all holders.


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## Logique (30 May 2011)

Given that the clear intent of the article was to dump on speculative under-performers, the admission that yes, Ashburton Min do have depth of experience on the board, and with the drill now arrived, ATN are upbeat about the future - this was was a backhanded complement, about as constructive as you might expect in the context.

That must have been an interesting exercise for the company, crating up the drill for delivery by landing ducks! No wonder the announcement came later than we thought.

It's all about the gold intersects now, if some good percentages are reported, then we are away.


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## beatle (30 May 2011)

Logique said:


> It's all about the gold intersects now, if some good percentages are reported, then we are away.




Ah Yes Logique, a percentage would be nice, but in fact I would even accept some multiples of grams, lol! The question now is when the first report of any drilling is made given that Obi is very isolated, away from labs - I would love for ATN to report some visible gold as they surely would have to report that even if it hadn't been to lab - all about continuous disclosure and if its not declared then it would be an important omission! AND given the past BHP intercepts plus artisanal mining to support it, its a real possibility that visible gold will be sighted in at least a narrow intercept in one of the holes.


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## mgm1a (30 May 2011)

i think its probably going to be quicker to put the drill intercepts through the artisanal miners processes to pour the gold than get it to a lab!


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## mr. jeff (31 May 2011)

mgm1a said:


> i think its probably going to be quicker to put the drill intercepts through the artisanal miners processes to pour the gold than get it to a lab!




Well lets all hope that they don't have to get another drill to replace the one they have in there now for any reason. Perhaps it is worth getting another one in there to drill anyway, the ground is proven to be prospective, they are talking about a long strike so might as well get serious about it and chase the length of it since ATN has the EL.

Re the cores, lets hope they have a plan for getting them to the testers without using mules or ducks etc. - would hate to see an overburdened mule in the next report, with that high tech processing plant already sapping enough man power. 
Still, a lot of those artisanal miners would be keen to get a good paying gig on a loader, drill or crusher, so there goes part of the development problem once ATN has confirmed the extents and grades.

Very excited about this drilling, it is not long before we will hear, and as there are historic grades already in ATN's hands, there is much less downside here than there would be in a "new" geological model. Look forward to hearing more from ATN as the info comes to hand.


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## mr. jeff (3 June 2011)

Beatle I'm starting to think that you were selling me your ATN shares! Now I'm the updater on the thread.

Well nevertheless, good news - drilling has commenced at Obi:

"3 June 2011
Company Announcements Office
Australian Securities Exchange Limited
20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
by electronic lodgement
Ashburton Minerals Ltd
(“Ashburton” or “the Company”)
Dear Sir/Madam
OBI UPDATE – DRILLING COMMENCES
Ashburton is pleased to announce that as of this morning diamond drilling has commenced at the Obi Gold Project in Indonesia.
The Company is intending to initially drill 12 – 14 drill holes, comprising between 3,000 m and 4,000 m of diamond core drilling, dominantly NQ size, into the Ambon artisanal gold workings located in the northern part of the project area. This initial programme will test a 200 m wide zone along approximately 700 m of strike of the most intensely worked area..."

FINALLY! good luck holders.


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## beatle (4 June 2011)

mr. jeff said:


> Beatle I'm starting to think that you were selling me your ATN shares! Now I'm the updater on the thread.
> 
> Well nevertheless, good news - drilling has commenced at Obi:
> 
> .




Haha Mr Jeff, believe me I'm so glad to have you be the chief poster on ATN, but I do confirm that I continue to hold ATN (my last purchase was at 5.3 cents, ughhh), so I haven't given you any of mine.
ATN is one of just two gold stocks I'm holding at present as I have been freeing up my cash in readiness to buy more of my most favoured stock (no guessing what that is, lol!). 
I believe that ATN is one of the most exciting gold specs currently but its hard to post on something that has limited information available beyond my earlier posts, and I must admit the delay of the rig getting going peed me off, although its now up and running.


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## mr. jeff (4 June 2011)

Great to hear!
Easy to feel put-off in these markets, but I like gold and ATN is going to have a very exciting month of drilling. I have increased holdings and am also behind (about -15%) but I am not concerned as this stock is reasonably well known and the drilling has begun. When you read the presentation the prospectivity is quite clear, so I do anticipate a run up for this month assuming no major US / Europe issues, even in the face of a choppy market.

Actually I would add that the price action for Thurs and Friday was favourable, a positive sign so far (albeit on skinny volume).

Not much more to say but good luck.


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## beatle (9 June 2011)

The price of ATN is looking very sick, although its obviously not the only one being affected by end of the financial year blues plus general negativity in the market. And yet ATN is currently drilling on a boomer of a project, with the likelihood of significant gold intersections being announced in due course being quite high! If you are wanting exposure to a gold speccy I believe this would have to be the perfect candidate and the timing now is absolutely right on. Its speculative, but the probability of successful gold intersections is very high, and the rewards could be enormous.


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## Halifax (9 June 2011)

Sorry beatle, that's my fault.

I bought in early may, and whatever I have bought over the last 2-3 months seems to turn to ash 

So maybe if I sell out, you guys can have a nice rally. On a positive note, this year has taught me an awful lot about the importance of timing the market, not just picking the right stock


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## beatle (9 June 2011)

I know the feeling Halifax, in fact we have something in common, lol.

But can I suggest you look at another way before you decide to get out on ATN (this rationale keeps me sane from time to time, but its not 100% guaranteed of course!). When I buy a stock at the wrong time (ie just as its ready to go down), I ask myself what would I do IF I weren't in the stock would I want to buy at this lower level - my usual answer is that I would want to buy at this lower level! So therefore I just sit there and wait for the market to realise how smart I am, lol! (As I say, it doesn't always work and sometimes I am holding a stock for a long time too). BUT in the case of my 2 remaining gold stocks, ATN and RED I will hold until the results are out - I'm confident that ATN, even though its a spec, will be far higher once the drilling results come out and we have confirmation of significant mineralisation!


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## Halifax (9 June 2011)

Not likely that I'll exit at my current loss 

I would have exited (and bought in lower) if I had more money in, but I only put 1.5k in because I lost a lot of confidence in speccies this year, so any loss on ATN isn't really going to break the bank, and commission would eat me alive.

And right you are, I think if I wasn't already in I'd see it as a nice discount at $0.043. Alas, I'm staying mostly cash until the market begins to recover a little.


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## Halifax (9 June 2011)

Also, forgot to add, ATN has seemed to lag a day or two behind the market since I've been in, so if that pattern holds, there should be some relief tomorrow... I think. Either that, or I will reveal my lack of predictive powers.


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## beatle (10 June 2011)

I was close to buying more when it looked like ATN was going to hit 4.2 cents, but someone put a bid in at 4.3 cents and that was the end of the drop!

I don't think its a bad idea to have cash Halifax, especially at times when the market is very negative. Its interesting that the negativity has coincided with the end of the financial year, when there is a lot of dumping of shares by certain investors who want to clear out financial positions from a tax point of view. I do understand that strategy, I have made similar decisions in past years, and it also provides an opportunity for those seeking to bottom fish for bargains. In this case there is no certainty that the drilling will come up trumps, but i remain very confident of it working out for ATN and us patient shareholders.


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## beatle (22 June 2011)

As with most goldies at the moment ATN seems to have suffered immensely in the past month or so. Now that it has commenced drilling on Obi Island I still believe it to be the best spec explorer around at the moment, with the likelihood of some big numbers coming out of the drilling results. I just find it hard to fathom how people just dump stocks indiscriminantly like this, hopefully us holders will reap the rewards in due course! 

Mind you, an update from the company wouldn't go astray -  (is that a subtle enough HINT?)


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## mr. jeff (22 June 2011)

beatle said:


> As with most goldies at the moment ATN seems to have suffered immensely in the past month or so. Now that it has commenced drilling on Obi Island I still believe it to be the best spec explorer around at the moment, with the likelihood of some big numbers coming out of the drilling results. I just find it hard to fathom how people just dump stocks indiscriminantly like this, hopefully us holders will reap the rewards in due course!
> 
> Mind you, an update from the company wouldn't go astray -  (is that a subtle enough HINT?)





Yeah I have been thinking about stepping aside and copping a loss on this one. I really dislike any company that does not provide information although I can understand that they are probably so busy they don't have chance, but with no information to guide decisions, you tend to have to draw your own conclusions, and usually when there is a drilling program underway with no announcements or updates it means they are not getting any decent results. 
Although in this drilling operation I would be very surprised if that is the case what with the history of the ground there.... 
perhaps a drill problem, maybe weather, maybe difficult terrain. Maybe some more information would help!
Hold steady and watch the intersections come to you.


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## mr. jeff (28 June 2011)

great news in the past 2 announcements with clear indication that drilling is going ahead. One hole completed and on to the second. No problems and looking good for results as they come to hand. 

"Samples from regional exploration and the diamond drilling will be dispatched on a batch basis by airfreight to Perth for analysis through ALS Laboratories. Initial results are not expected for at least 6 weeks." may be why SP being hammered at the moment, with all the short term hopefuls stepping aside. Also an indication that they may source a second rig and step up the drilling.

It seems ATN heard some calls for information and heeded it! Thank you to management. Awaiting drill results as they come to hand. 

Good luck to holders. And good luck to the people on the ground.


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## Logique (4 July 2011)

Been hurting on this one, but decided to hang in, not that I'm making a recommendation either way for other holders, it gets down to individual risk tolerance.

With a bounce in the US market last week, all boats lifted on the tide. ATN, along with everything else was technically oversold, but significantly has risen above it's daily 200 EMA, and the best offer as I type this morning is at .045, so for now it feels a bit better being an Ashburton Minerals holder. We need a confirmed break of the downtrend before getting too confident.


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## Logique (20 July 2011)

Thought I'd check it by candlestick theory. Some hope that it's put in a short term base at around 3.5c.  We have seen some solidity. The recent run in the gold price, breaking through $1600/oz, has helped, but realistically we need drilling announcements.


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## mr. jeff (9 August 2011)

Waiting for drilling announcements with ATN and thought I'd remind any holders that we only have 1 - 2 weeks until some results.

FINALLY!!

Was looking at the market depth and although Etrade Pro is giving no market data AT ALL, I see that there is a very skinny seller who has lots of about $200 each placed, so anyone feeling the pressure, just be aware of that.

Good luck holders, exciting times.


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## mr. jeff (8 September 2011)

After a worrying announcement a week or so ago regarding results delayed, 
ATN in a trading halt pending release of drilling results.
They have also announced that their second rig has arrived on site, I will take this as a sign that the drilling is worthwhile enough to justify this cost.

Lets see what the news brings...


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## mgm1a (9 September 2011)

late ann. folks - DOWNGRADED -disappointment, should have topped up on RED, so much for di-worse-ification.


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