# XAO Banter Thread



## clayton4115 (2 October 2009)

ok, so here we can talk and freely express our opinions of the markets.

Ok my feeling is that it looks like we got a major correction on our hands, the FTSE is down 1% and the Dow is likely to open lower, most likely close lower as well.

We should see a correction down to 4550 initially maybe lower, but i think we could see a correction of 10 - 15%.

Bears may be back in town!


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## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

your a champ 

good thread , lets hope we can use it for good instead of evil 

will add to it when sober


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## ajjack (2 October 2009)

You could be right, but just because its October dont mean
a correction is automatic.

How do you figure the  AO at 4550?


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## Riddick (2 October 2009)

any one else watching history channel at the moment. they are showing the Bernie Madoff bio. the guy was a complete  A-Hole!

I wonder what the penalty would be in the Australian legal system for a guy that all out stole 65 billion.

kind of makes you not want to trust anyone with your $$$


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## Julia (2 October 2009)

Riddick said:


> kind of makes you not want to trust anyone with your $$$



I'd never trust anyone with my money anyway, regardless of Madoff's antics.


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## cutz (2 October 2009)

At long last, a bit of good old fashion  volatility returning to the markets, lets hope it's lasts unlike the other false start, anyway how does 4200 sound.


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## satanoperca (2 October 2009)

Don't think we will see a retracement just yet, those green shoots have not had enough weed killer yet, but the debt is growing daily. 

If there is and I do not have a crystal ball I see support around 4350 - 38% retracement and where there was a small amount of consolidation.

I sure if we all chant together for a retracement it might come true.

Either way I can only trade what is in front of me at the time.

Nun, the truth always come to the surface after alcohol. Give us your wisdom.


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## cutz (2 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> will add to it when sober




Don't wait till you're sober, i take it the banter thread is a free for all.


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## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

cutz said:


> Don't wait till you're sober, i take it the banter thread is a free for all.





lol .yeah and no i reckon 

i think chris has made this thread to actually talk shop but without the constraint of the normal rules in another thread 

all things affect the xao/xjo .theres a lot of components , so its good to have a spot to discuss them components without getting pinged for it ( no offense to the moderators). rules are rules after all 

it would be nice to get reasons for calls or charts or any other thoughts to do with the perceived directions ppl post .

just nice to have a thread where they may be a lot more leeway may be allowed when a discussion takes off on its own direction as they so often do on this forum


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## beerwm (2 October 2009)

I'd think we'd need some bad news to really push 10%-15% correction,

given a 10-15% correction would be a bigger move than a 10-15% correction a couple of months ago.

seems mostly like a breather/taking profits, given that the news wasnt all that bad last night considering the 3% fall.


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## Riddick (2 October 2009)

Julia said:


> I'd never trust anyone with my money anyway, regardless of Madoff's antics.




i'm referring to my parents... shady, real shady.

and of course i never trust anybody with anything, especially my money. maybe thats whay I live alone on a farm in the middle of nowhere....


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## Joe Blow (2 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> ok, so here we can talk and freely express our opinions of the markets.




If this thread is just going to be people making unsupported assertions and chatting at random about things unrelated to the thread topic then you might as well take it to the live chat room because that's where this sort of chatter belongs.


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## Julia (2 October 2009)

Joe, the thread title is XAO *Banter* thread.
Doesn't it serve the purpose of allowing a little light hearted comment stuck away on its own which can be easily avoided by those wanting only the serious commentary on the XAO in other threads?

If Solly can have a frivolous general chat thread, I can't quite see why this one doesn't fulfil a similar purpose.

I don't mean to be argumentative or difficult, but am just a bit puzzled on this.


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## Dark1975 (2 October 2009)

Has anyone thought to make a DOW/XAO Thread as they serve hand in hand. The dow is a  good indicator on where the xao is heading,People will argue we don't follow the dow,and we have decoupled from it,But ive traded for the past 6 years now and used the dow as a good guide on where we are heading.Hmm as the dow currently a 132 points down in the futures.Points to a change in momentum and the xao will follow,question is will 4525 hold up on the xao when trading resumes.


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## Joe Blow (2 October 2009)

Julia said:


> Joe, the thread title is XAO *Banter* thread.
> Doesn't it serve the purpose of allowing a little light hearted comment stuck away on its own which can be easily avoided by those wanting only the serious commentary on the XAO in other threads?
> 
> If Solly can have a frivolous general chat thread, I can't quite see why this one doesn't fulfil a similar purpose.
> ...




Julia,

I guess what I was saying is that I think the chat room is more suited to random "banter".  That's its purpose after all.

That said I will let it run and hope for the best.


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## satanoperca (2 October 2009)

Agreed


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## nunthewiser (2 October 2009)

thinks monday will be an intresting sort of day as it is being a public holiday in various parts of oz ...... will it be a little less volume out there? one would thinkso


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## Dark1975 (2 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> thinks monday will be an intresting sort of day as it is being a public holiday in various parts of oz ...... will it be a little less volume out there? one would thinkso




haha it will affect me here in n.s.w,as ill be still sobering up after the eels win the grand final gogo the banter..and eveyone in n.s.w will be on holidays after the eels win as the biggest underdogs..it will be moved as a national holiday.hmmm maybe not alot of mexicans south of the border vic)follow another game that has boys in tight shorts.
But back to your question low volume as far as n.s.w is concerned.


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## jono1887 (2 October 2009)

cutz said:


> At long last, a bit of good old fashion  volatility returning to the markets, lets hope it's lasts unlike the other false start, anyway how does 4200 sound.




I'm hoping more for a 4k..


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## nunthewiser (3 October 2009)

personally think it will take a lot more than bad jobless numbers to set this correction snowball into motion a proper yet.......

people out there still trying to buy the weakness

im finding it hard to read anything more than short term currently tho


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## Dark1975 (3 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> personally think it will take a lot more than bad jobless numbers to set this correction snowball into motion a proper yet.......
> 
> people out there still trying to buy the weakness
> 
> im finding it hard to read anything more than short term currently tho




I do see what you are saying,But i think personally it's a long awaited correction to take place for many traders like myself.Or you could be right just a pause or consolidation period.
But in saying that,We are in new uncharted territory,I mean we usally look on a technical view try to plot or predict the future either with ew/fab/gann or using announcements as e.g: lehmans collaspe as the catalyst for the start of the snowball.
But in saying this,the past crashes can't be compared due to the different economic enviroment.I mean the goverments of the world have come together with open cheque-books of optimism with stimulas packages(never seen done before).Altho maybe people think with so much money in play in play the bulls will ride for a while.
But this can't last forever,as we in australia don't see the harshness of the recession,Our country really should be the apple,Every other country should be watching us in terms of resilience(but this is far from the point).In short i spoke to my friends in the U.S,and it aint all green shoots,Altho people will say in the media it's all good.(it ain't).
In short no jobs/no consumer confidence...no more major announcements from reports for a month,So in hence this could set the tone for at the next month.


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## clayton4115 (3 October 2009)

yea, i feel this thread is to express opinions not backed up by any technical indicators, thats what the XAO Analysis thread is.

now back to my opinions on the market

given the market fell 55% from top to bottom, and now we went up 55% from bottom to top, i think we could fall given these to relationships!!!


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## jancha (3 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> Has anyone thought to make a DOW/XAO Thread as they serve hand in hand. The dow is a  good indicator on where the xao is heading,People will argue we don't follow the dow,and we have decoupled from it,But ive traded for the past 6 years now and used the dow as a good guide on where we are heading.Hmm as the dow currently a 132 points down in the futures.Points to a change in momentum and the xao will follow,question is will 4525 hold up on the xao when trading resumes.




I agree that in general we follow the DOW but for how much longer?


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## Joe Blow (3 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> yea, i feel this thread is to express opinions not backed up by any technical indicators, thats what the XAO Analysis thread is.




So I can't help but wonder what the basis for these opinions are? 

A hunch, tea leaves, taxi driver, crystal ball, ouija board?


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## clayton4115 (3 October 2009)

i'm giving you a reason for my opinions, if you care to read the full length of my post.


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## Joe Blow (3 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> i'm giving you a reason for my opinions, if you care to read the full length of my post.






clayton4115 said:


> given the market fell 55% from top to bottom, and now we went up 55% from bottom to top, i think we could fall given these to relationships!!!




Can you please explain these relationships in a little more detail and why you believe they mean the market is now going to fall?

I'm not quite sure what you are getting at.


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## drsmith (3 October 2009)

In October 1988 and October 1993 the XAO rose.


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## skc (3 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> thinks monday will be an intresting sort of day as it is being a public holiday in various parts of oz ...... will it be a little less volume out there? one would thinkso




I'd imagine the volume on Monday will be quite low... in fact quite close to zero.


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## nunthewiser (3 October 2009)

skc said:


> I'd imagine the volume on Monday will be quite low... in fact quite close to zero.





nope 

apparently a trading day but a non settlement day 

i could be wrong


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## clayton4115 (3 October 2009)

well i don't really have a full blown technical explanation per se, if i did i would share it in the XAO analysis thread, 

its just that we have had a full 2% fall, the market has gone up 55% in a very short space of time and now i feel we are going to retrace 10-15%.


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## nunthewiser (3 October 2009)

taken from ASX trading calender 


Labour Day  Monday 5 October NSW / SA / ACT OPEN No Settlement - ASTC Settlement - ACH 

http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2009.htm

lol as if i would be wrong


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## Timmy (3 October 2009)

skc said:


> I'd imagine the volume on Monday will be quite low... in fact quite close to zero.




Agree, with Sydney on holiday the volume will be bugger all.


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## nunthewiser (3 October 2009)

i might have got my wires crossed with skc 

i thought he was implying by zero volume that the markets were closed monday 

i already pointed out that i think the vols would be low on monday 

oh dear i need more sleep if this wasnt the case 

as you were


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## skc (3 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> i might have got my wires crossed with skc
> 
> i thought he was implying by zero volume that the markets were closed monday
> 
> ...




I was confused myself... I actually thought the market would be closed Monday. So you got my joke, nun. 

I guess the volume won't be zero then. I will make sure of that 

I don't really understand why the market is still open Monday. It is not even a business day when it comes to settlements. Traders deserve a long weekend!


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## Gordon Gekko (3 October 2009)

"The Bank, whose job it is to support low-income countries, has had to hand out so much cash in the wake of the financial crisis that its resources could run dry within 12 months. "



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-could-run-out-of-money-within-12-months.html

Hey maybe we could lend them the money? No recession or depression here, just over priced housing, sunshine and loly pops!

Best
G


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## clayton4115 (3 October 2009)

talk about overpriced housing!


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## Chris45 (4 October 2009)

Joe Blow said:


> That said I will let it run and hope for the best.



Joe, as was suggested elsewhere, this thread, free from the requirements to include detailed analysis, could be very useful in gauging market sentiment. Judging from the writing styles used, there seem to be many new young members joining the forum and I think they should be free to express their opinions. We can all learn from their views.


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## nunthewiser (4 October 2009)

i think this thread is a great idea as we can discuss what actually moves the markets ie , economy , various weighted stocks and other points to do with the XAO that are not deemed accetable for some posters in the other thread 

like it or not but the XAO does not run on charts alone , pretty sure the general economy and banking and phone companies etc etc etc etc affect it on a day to day basis 

at least here we can make a post of relevance to the xao without it being removed because we mentioned something to do with it 

only my 2 cents , no disrespect intended to whoever has removed posts because they dont fit in with there ideas on what is classed as analysis on what moves the xao

i do respect and understand the rules on the other thread so now glad we got somewhere to post the things that DONT fit in that thread


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## nunthewiser (4 October 2009)

speaking of which 

after hitting my previous pivot point i stated and bouncing off it and the strength of the comeback on the yanks friday night .i would be expecting a slightly green day on the XAO on monday .all be it on low volumes ........ 

i could also be wrong 

will have a closer look on where I think its going next when the vols return on tuesday

now that should be classed as analysis in my book only its stated in words not lines on a chart .... im not very good with drawing charts on screen


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## Chris45 (4 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

This “XAO Analysis” thread is now 3yrs old and is 383 pages long, which makes searching for the occasional quality analytical posts rather tedious because they tend to get lost amongst the general chatter. Since there is now an expectation that this thread be reserved for serious technical analysis, it might become a lot quieter as all of the chatter moves to the Banter thread.

ASF now has many different analysis threads, eg “XAO Analysis”, “Elliott Wave and the XAO”, “ASX 200 Analysis”, “The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread”, etc. so it would be good if all serious analysis of *whatever flavour* could in future be posted in the one thread without the chatter and petty personal biases being allowed to intrude.

I don’t know if I’m being unrealistic but here’s a suggestion to try and make the forum a bit easier for everyone. Perhaps this thread could be cut after, say, post #7621 and a new *sticky* thread titled *ASX Index Analysis* commenced and reserved for the serious analysis of both the XAO and the XJO, with all reasonable analysis techniques, eg S&R, EW, MA, Gann etc, being allowed and respected and not ridiculed. Readers can then more easily compare the different analysis techniques and form their opinions which they can then post in the Banter thread, with a reference to the post number, if they wish.

There should be a requirement that all new posts contain meaningful charts with analysis tools shown plus explanations (as in the first “XAO Analysis” post) or other significant data, and all unnecessary chatter should be immediately deleted or moved to the Banter thread. Comments on posts should be discouraged, unless serious questions are being asked, and any arguments that develop about the pros and cons of the different techniques should be either deleted or transferred to debate threads. Trivial “me too” comments should be deleted and trolls should be aggressively silenced and/or banned.


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## Timmy (4 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Chris, the place for Elliot Wave postings on the XAO is the thread dedicated to such, too many arguments to incorporate it into the XAO Analysis thread.


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## Timmy (4 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Chris45 said:


> Since there is now an expectation that this thread be reserved for serious technical analysis,




Fundamental analysis on index influences also has a place.





Chris45 said:


> ASF now has many different analysis threads, eg “XAO Analysis”, “Elliott Wave and the XAO”, “ASX 200 Analysis”, “The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread”, etc. so it would be good if all serious analysis of *whatever flavour* could in future be posted in the one thread without the chatter and petty personal biases being allowed to intrude.
> 
> I don’t know if I’m being unrealistic




Unfortunately you are.  It hasn't worked.  Separating Elliot from the XAO Analysis thread has been a great idea, for all concerned - the Elliot Wave thread has thrived, as has the XAO Analysis thread.

This banter thread is useful for other things, whatever they are - unsupported opinions, chatter, banter, whatever.


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## Chris45 (4 October 2009)

Timmy said:


> Unfortunately you are.  It hasn't worked.  Separating Elliott from the XAO Analysis thread has been a great idea, for all concerned - the Elliott Wave thread has thrived, as has the XAO Analysis thread.




Timmy, I'm not trying to be difficult but I noticed that nomore4s's charts included what looks to me like Elliott Waves and also mentioned "wave 5 decline" as well as showing a support level. Analyses can include a mixture of techniques which is why I suggested they be allowed in the same thread, with strict rules against trolling.


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## Timmy (4 October 2009)

There is a thread devoted to EW analysis of the XAO, this is where EW analysis of the XAO is to be posted.

The EW thread has thrived, as has the XAO thread.  The new direction has been explained very clearly and will be implemented.


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## Chris45 (4 October 2009)

Timmy said:


> There is a thread devoted to EW analysis of the XAO, this is where EW analysis of the XAO is to be posted.



So if someone wanted to post a chart similar to *this*, in which thread would it now belong?


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## prawn_86 (4 October 2009)

Chris45 said:


> So if someone wanted to post a chart similar to *this*, in which thread would it now belong?




If it is based soley on wave counts and no other analysis, then the elliot wave thread would be the best. If other analysis like support/res, fundamentals etc is also included then the Analysis thread, or even both, that way if the analysis thread went off topic again (ie arguing about EW) the posts would simply be moved.


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## Timmy (4 October 2009)

Thanks Prawn, and let me just add, Chris and anyone in any doubt:

If anyone tries to introduce EW into the XAO thread, like that chart you posted it will be deleted and poster infracted.  We are sick of the site being used to make petty points and will be pursuing the policy that the site is better off without people who cannot use good judgement.  So, if in any doubt, post your EW into the EW thread.


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## Joe Blow (4 October 2009)

My understanding of this thread is that its purpose it for those who want to be able to chat about the XAO without having to present any TA analysis of it. As long as thread participants are prepared to back up their assertions by also posting the reasoning that led them to their conclusion(s) then I have no problem with it. I do, however, have a problem with a post like "I think the XAO will drop 50 points today". Without explaining why, the post serves no purpose whatsoever.

If people simply wish to "banter" and this thread ends up becoming directionless and unfocussed with people chatting about what they had for breakfast then I really don't see the point when we have a live chat room that is devoted to directionless random chat.


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## nulla nulla (4 October 2009)

Joe Blow said:


> My understanding of this thread is that its purpose it for those who want to be able to chat about the XAO without having to present any TA analysis of it. As long as thread participants are prepared to back up their assertions by also posting the reasoning that led them to their conclusion(s) then I have no problem with it. I do, however, have a problem with a post like "I think the XAO will drop 50 points today". Without explaining why, the post serves no purpose whatsoever.
> 
> If people simply wish to "banter" and this thread ends up becoming directionless and unfocussed with people chatting about what they had for breakfast then I really don't see the point when we have a live chat room that is devoted to directionless random chat.




Steady on, sometimes we have lots of direction in the chat room. All over the place, everyone welcome. lol


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## Donga (4 October 2009)

Have to agree with Nulla nulla. Surely banter is just that, let it run. 

Of the last 9 posts on this thread, 6 have been regulators. Having just returned from holidays in a few European countries, was struck by their refreshing lack of rules & process, that are beginning to strangle english speaking societies. Manly Jazz Festival today, not one person with an alcoholic drink or a smoke, very sobering.     

Damn, I'm not even XAO bantering.


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## RayG (4 October 2009)

Timmy said:


> Thanks Prawn, and let me just add, Chris and anyone in any doubt:
> 
> If anyone tries to introduce EW into the XAO thread, like that chart you posted it will be deleted and poster infracted.  We are sick of the site being used to make petty points and will be pursuing the policy that the site is better off without people who cannot use good judgement.  So, if in any doubt, post your EW into the EW thread.




Ok, got it,  EW analysis has no place in XAO analysis...

Good judgment is getting harder to find.

Regards
Ray


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## nomore4s (4 October 2009)

Chris45 said:


> Timmy, I'm not trying to be difficult but I noticed that nomore4s's charts included what looks to me like Elliott Waves and also mentioned "wave 5 decline" as well as showing a support level. Analyses can include a mixture of techniques which is why I suggested they be allowed in the same thread, with strict rules against trolling.




Just to clarify, my analysis is in no way based around EW if anything it is actually more influenced by wyckoff. While it has "3 wave" & "5 wave" moves shown this is based around my research on how the market moves. I do not follow EW rules and I don't care about which wave is the longest or if this wave overlaps that wave.

The market tends to move in waves of buying & selling - hence trends develop and I'm just looking for certain patterns within these moves. I also use a channel system based around FrankD's system that I have adapted to suit my trading but I never show these channels on my posted charts because no one would understand them.


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## nunthewiser (4 October 2009)

and your analysis has been fairly spot on to date nomore4,s 

well done


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## Timmy (5 October 2009)

Donga said:


> Of the last 9 posts on this thread, 6 have been regulators.




All 6 have been answering questions.  Is that a problem?


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## Donga (5 October 2009)

Timmy said:


> All 6 have been answering questions.  Is that a problem?




Don't know about a problem, not overly fussed. Just my observations and note there were three in a row from moderators which seems a little top heavy. However I also appreciate the standards being maintained, just caution that it doesn't become too stifling.


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## clayton4115 (5 October 2009)

hi all

the market finished lower today, not a good sign, looks like the bears are slowly awakening from their slumber.


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## Gordon Gekko (5 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> hi all
> 
> the market finished lower today, not a good sign, looks like the bears are slowly awakening from their slumber.




I've been awake the whole time. Watching in disbelief as the market went higher based on alot of hope and hot air.

Nice work to those that followed the trend until it end's, I sold out a little to early and have been cool as a cucumber in anticipation of a pull back which I believe will be more of a crash to the March lows and beyond.

Earnings season should be interesting over the next few weeks in the US, as well as the possible interest rate increases here at home.

The world economies are up **** creek with out a paddle.

Yeah I'm a bear!


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## nomore4s (5 October 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Nice work to those that followed the trend until it end's,




What proof do you have that the trend has ended? This might just be another minor retracement in the uptrend, we haven't even made 1 lower high yet.

Every time there is a retracement since you sold out you come back and bleat the same rubbish but continually have little or no evidence to back your claims up besides the same generic bearish cr@p that is posted in a million places on the net.

While we may just be re-inflating the bubble without fully paying the price for the last one yet maybe it's time the bears admitted we have weathered the worst of the storm till the next bubble bursts. It would take something pretty bad to push us to new lows from here imo.


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## Donga (5 October 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I've been awake the whole time. Watching in disbelief as the market went higher based on alot of hope and hot air.
> 
> Nice work to those that followed the trend until it end's, I sold out a little to early and have been cool as a cucumber in anticipation of a pull back which I believe will be more of a crash to the March lows and beyond.
> 
> ...




And bears make the markets interesting and enable bulls to profit most of the time. However, hope you don't do too much dough on the upcoming US reporting season. The last one surprised everyone, especially the bears and I expect this one will also be largely positive. 

Why - cause the leading indicators are mostly +ve and pity about the unemployed who are aiding the profit recovery of the mercantile corporates. My US organisation would be an example of a very profitable large company who took advantage of GFC to lay off some middle management on the basis of a slight sales drop. Well, now those sales have picked up and guess they'll surprise the market. 

Three cheers for free enterprise  

GG - suggest you look for companies that have perhaps raced up too fast, but wouldn't bank on the overall markets to suffer overly once DJ 3rd qtr reporting season gets underway. I expect more direction will come from China and hope FIRB doesn't kill the golden goose. We're not the only country with the resources they need.


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## Nyden (5 October 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> I've been awake the whole time. Watching in disbelief as the market went higher based on alot of hope and hot air.
> 
> Nice work to those that followed the trend until it end's, I sold out a little to early and have been cool as a cucumber in anticipation of a pull back which I believe will be more of a crash to the March lows and beyond.
> 
> ...




Yeah. Hey, how did it work out selling 70% of everything in early May?

Here are just a few other little gems of yours, heck - you may as well open a psychic booth!



Gordon Gekko said:


> I just hope that when you all rush to the exit's you don't find that they are nailed shut!
> Hey, the window over there might be an option?





https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=479608#post479608



Gordon Gekko said:


> I can already hear the sucking sound starting!
> 
> I still can't believe that people are buying into this recovery based on " green shoots" Spun out by the media.
> Didn't this "recovery" started on a leaked rummor that a bank was going to make money. Then the toxic or "legacy assets" where able to be taken off the balance sheets by the mark to market changes.
> ...






Yeah. Based on your post alone, I'm expecting a gangbusters day tomorrow. Green alllll around


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## clayton4115 (5 October 2009)

lol, i am enjoying reading this thread, but hope it doesnt turn ugly, we should refrain from picking on individual persons in this forum.

well no one is perfect and noone can pick market tops or bottoms, 

im quite certain we should get a decent pullback to 4500 soon, ive gone short the SPI shorted at 4580, looking to exit at 4502. 

$390 return on 1 SPI contract with a margin outlay of $250.

Not a bad return if it works out.


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## Julia (5 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> im quite certain we should get a decent pullback to 4500 soon,



Why are you so certain?


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## nunthewiser (6 October 2009)

mmmmmmmmm

bit of strength out there so far tonight 

should be an intresting day tommorow with all them fresh vols busting to get back to work in the morning , especially coming off this pivot point on the xao ..... could be a nice lil bounce off it before armageddon raineth down 

i could be wrong , been known to happen 

what is your stopout point on them shorts clayton ?


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## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

nice 100 point rise on the DOW this morning, good opportunity to sell out my remaining long holdings!


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## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

my stops are at 4799 on the SPI.


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## nomore4s (6 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> im quite certain we should get a decent pullback to 4500 soon, ive gone short the SPI shorted at 4580, looking to exit at 4502.
> 
> $390 return on 1 SPI contract with a margin outlay of $250.
> 
> Not a bad return if it works out.






clayton4115 said:


> my stops are at 4799 on the SPI.




 Here we go again.

So let me get this right.

You've entered at 4580 with a target of 4502 - 78 points reward.
But your stop is at 4799 - 297 points risk.
Plus you've got you holding costs.

And you think - 


> $390 return on 1 SPI contract with a margin outlay of $250.
> *Not a bad return if it works out*.




I think it's a cr@p return if it works out.


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## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

my bad,

my stop is 4658 R/R 1:1

cheers.


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## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

nice healthy 1% rise on the market so far






NOT


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## nunthewiser (6 October 2009)

was there a point to that post ? if so i missed it ....please explain


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## skyQuake (6 October 2009)

Cause it came within 5pts of his stop then tanked 50pts~


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## White_Knight (6 October 2009)

I'm short 100 SPI contracts, stop 5000, target 3500.

Dare me to drive?


----------



## skyQuake (6 October 2009)

White_Knight said:


> I'm short 100 SPI contracts, stop 5000, target 3500.
> 
> Dare me to drive?




Well that depends where you shorted, 3500 or 5000


----------



## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> was there a point to that post ? if so i missed it ....please explain




this is the banter thread isn't it?


----------



## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

White_Knight said:


> I'm short 100 SPI contracts, stop 5000, target 3500.
> 
> Dare me to drive?





LOL go for it!


----------



## Dark1975 (6 October 2009)

rba lifting interest rates?...hmmm bit to confident i think,could this be the catalyst?The xao has shed 20points in 3mins after the press releasement at 2.31pm


----------



## Nyden (6 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> rba lifting interest rates?...hmmm bit to confident i think,could this be the catalyst?The xao has shed 20points in 3mins after the press releasement at 2.31pm




I thought the general consensus was that rates were in fact going up, so perhaps that was a bit of an overreaction.

AUD shot up like a little rocket though, off topic - but parity, here we come?


----------



## beerwm (6 October 2009)

continue stimulus....but...increase rates?

working against each other arent they?


----------



## Nyden (6 October 2009)

beerwm said:


> continue stimulus....but...increase rates?
> 
> working against each other arent they?




Yes, and I believe that's the point. I'm extremely happy about this, as it means that the RBA is actually doing its job - independently of Krudd.


----------



## nunthewiser (6 October 2009)

Nyden said:


> AUD shot up like a little rocket though, off topic - but parity, here we come?




 Might be time to buy that new customised Bobber harley straight from the good ole usa


----------



## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

interest rates are way to low anyways,

long term average is 5-6%


----------



## Dark1975 (6 October 2009)

Nyden said:


> I thought the general consensus was that rates were in fact going up, so perhaps that was a bit of an overreaction.
> 
> AUD shot up like a little rocket though, off topic - but parity, here we come?




Well I think the rba only moved rates up to try and defuse a bubbling property market,I mean i own a few business and with my loans with WBC with a current rate @ 6.69%,now make it 6.94%(I aint confident to borrow any more money due to the consumer confidence).
I mean my T/sales are still 20% down on q2/q3,so please forgive me if i don't share the same level of optimism :


----------



## Nyden (6 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> Well I think the rba only moved rates up to try and defuse a bubbling property market,I mean i own a few business and with my loans with WBC with a current rate @ 6.69%,now make it 6.94%(I aint confident to borrow any more money due to the consumer confidence).
> I mean my T/sales are still 20% down on q2/q3,so please forgive me if i don't share the same level of optimism :




Well, you'll forgive me if I don't entirely feel sorry for you. There are always 2 sides to interest rates - the people that suffer for them, and the people that need them. I'm sure there are many retirees popping a bottle of something or other at this news today  I know I am, as hopefully this will at least (as already mentioned) put a lid on house prices for the time being.


----------



## Dark1975 (6 October 2009)

Nyden said:


> Well, you'll forgive me if I don't entirely feel sorry for you. There are always 2 sides to interest rates - the people that suffer for them, and the people that need them. I'm sure there are many retirees popping a bottle of something or other at this news today  I know I am, as hopefully this will at least (as already mentioned) put a lid on house prices for the time being.




lol,!Rba lifted rates to due the property market(prevent market from bubbling).Mate i own 3 newsagencies,Let me assure you consumer confidence/Spending is down still 28% from 2008.Consumer spending drives the market,And from a business point of view...There's not much optimism for me to go out and borrow more money to invest in general market,when people are more cautious with there money in spending.
Goverment has failed with stimulas packages...Instead of spending stimulas of infrastructure to create more jobs,and focus on helping ease the stress with small cap business(which in turn are 55% of the market).
In short,*Growing unemployment figures,lack of consumer confidence/rising interest rates/a property market which may bubble*.Well say no more than a possible W forming down the track.


----------



## Nyden (6 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> lol,!Rba lifted rates to due the property market(prevent market from bubbling).Mate i own 3 newsagencies,Let me assure you consumer confidence/Spending is down still 28% from 2008.Consumer spending drives the market,And from a business point of view...There's not much optimism for me to go out and borrow more money to invest in general market,when people are more cautious with there money in spending.
> Goverment has failed with stimulas packages...Instead of spending stimulas of infrastructure to create more jobs,and focus on helping ease the stress with small cap business(which in turn are 55% of the market).
> In short,*Growing unemployment figures,lack of consumer confidence/rising interest rates/a property market which may bubble*.Well say no more than a possible W recovery down the track.




Your 3 news agencies are an indicator for the entire economy, are they? Please. Of course your news agencies sales are still down, do you sell even one item of necessity? Your entire store is focused on discretionary spending. Magazines, newspapers, gift cards - goods that are the last thing on many shopping lists. The sales of such items might not pick up for a very long time, as many people will have realized that much of the same content is freely available online.

Many consumer-confidence reports are indicating positive news, and many industries *are* picking up. To say that the entire economy is still in ruins, based purely on your own experiences - is just arrogance.


----------



## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

we need to see interest rates at 6-7% before we see a dent in house prices.


----------



## Jay70 (6 October 2009)

White_Knight said:


> I'm short 100 SPI contracts, stop 5000, target 3500.
> 
> Dare me to drive?




I'm with you, not quite as many contracts and a slightly tighter stop. Good risk reward trade if comes off. I'm asuming you're expecting some kind of large triangle bottom to form going by your target OR do you just use risk reward to determine entry / exits?


----------



## Dark1975 (6 October 2009)

Nyden said:


> Your 3 news agencies are an indicator for the entire economy, are they? Please. Of course your news agencies sales are still down, do you sell even one item of necessity? Your entire store is focused on discretionary spending. Magazines, newspapers, gift cards - goods that are the last thing on many shopping lists. The sales of such items might not pick up for a very long time, as many people will have realized that much of the same content is freely available online.
> 
> Many consumer-confidence reports are indicating positive news, and many industries *are* picking up. *To say that the entire economy is still in ruins, based purely on your own experiences - is just arrogance.*





Actually didn't state that?But anyways you obviously don't own a business?And Actually not reading my posts properly?Anyway ain't going to debate with you anymore,it's pointless.Anyway good luck with your future trading


----------



## clayton4115 (6 October 2009)

looks like the US market is going to open with a roar, i'm close to my SL.


----------



## surfziggy (7 October 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

How dya like them apples bears ;-)

I reckon it's another leg up from here. People have just used the last few days weakness as another buying opportunity.


----------



## clayton4115 (7 October 2009)

got stopped out!

this is crazy! market up 3% !!!!


----------



## skyQuake (7 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> got stopped out!
> 
> this is crazy! market up 3% !!!!




Should have taken your gift yesterday


----------



## Nyden (7 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> got stopped out!
> 
> this is crazy! market up 3% !!!!




Follow the trend, play what is happening - not what you want to happen. It's so freaking simple.


----------



## nomore4s (7 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> got stopped out!
> 
> this is crazy! market up 3% !!!!




lol, the market doesn't do what you want it to do so it's crazy.

What's crazy is people who trade with little or no understanding of how the markets they trade behave.

Prof Frink had a very good post in the XAO analysis thread that provided stats on where the market might go this week. There was also a very strong chance the gap on the XAO was going to be filled and we could see 4700 retested before a serious break to the downside.

Maybe if you guys spent more time researching the markets and developing a decent trading plan & system the market would make more sense to you.

The lesson here is if you look at the very good traders on this forum they all have a lot of stats and patterns that provide reliable setups to trade from, and if they are unsure or don't have a pattern to trade - they don't trade until one comes up. Going short because "im quite certain we should get a decent pullback to 4500 soon" just doesn't cut it, especially with a 1:1 R/R.


----------



## nomore4s (7 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Should have taken your gift yesterday






Nyden said:


> Follow the trend, play what is happening - not what you want to happen. It's so freaking simple.




Blinded by bias


----------



## Nyden (7 October 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Blinded by bias




... or stupidity?


----------



## Awesomandy (7 October 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Blinded by bias






Nyden said:


> ... or stupidity?




option c: all of the above. 

The fact is, if you haven't done your homework and/or don't understand what's happening, then you should just stay out of the market. Otherwise, you might as well just go to the casino and place it all on black.


----------



## Dark1975 (8 October 2009)

Well today is a great day to gauge the xao,I mean being the dow was just a touch down.But i guess it's good today to see how bullish the market really is?(from a neutral postion).If we are starting to decouple from the dow?And could we be forming a double top?
Well my view hasn't changed,We are still following the dow,And a possible consolidation period and move to form top 2.Forming a double top scenario before tanking.Then again if the xao breaks 4761 then we will see the final leg up.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

Today is the short term top in my uneducated view from MY chart 

expect some red tommorow .....positioning accordingly............ just bantering nothing more


----------



## RayG (8 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Today is the short term top in my uneducated view from MY chart
> 
> expect some red tommorow .....positioning accordingly............ just bantering nothing more




Just beat the intra-day high of Tuesday last week (4761)  so we have a new high..


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

RayG said:


> Just beat the intra-day high of Tuesday last week (4761)  so we have a new high..




thats great 

i dont know what it has to do with my post but i still think its great


----------



## Chris45 (8 October 2009)

RayG said:


> Just beat the intra-day high of Tuesday last week (4761)  so we have a new high..



APZ9 and XJO seem to be testing the trendline from the previous two highs. If so, XAO could be down tomorrow.


----------



## RayG (8 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> thats great
> 
> i dont know what it has to do with my post but i still think its great




Umm.. congratulations on calling a short term top?


My method is to try and gauge the mood (sentiment) of the market,  I read and ignore most of the extreme viewpoints,  ignore the doom and gloom whackos,  ignore the blatant pollyanna spin doctors,  sometimes they make sense, mostly it's just wild unsubstantiated assertions about recovery and future of the US economy.  

One thing that seems obvious at this point in time is that the Australian economy has suffered much less than other economies from the GFC, for that reason alone I feel that any correction on the XAO is likely to be less than the DOW, and medium term outlook (say next 6-12 months) is going to be bullish.

That said, we are *still* overdue for a correction..  which may or may not come anytime soon...

Summary,  smaller correction (if there is one) in XAO than the US markets.

Still more risk in being short than long in the medium term (6-12 months).


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Today is the short term top in my uneducated view from MY chart
> 
> expect some red tommorow .....positioning accordingly............ just bantering nothing more






RayG said:


> Umm.. congratulations on calling a short term top?
> 
> 
> ).





LOL i posted MY post TODAY ........... read my post again ........... unless you know that the market is going up tomorow i have not been proven to be wrong yet 

i could always be wrong on my call also but have positionned myself on what I can see happening ............ 


please read my posts properly in the future 

thankyou


----------



## RayG (8 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> please read my posts properly in the future
> 
> thankyou




Ok,  congratulations duly withdrawn....


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

RayG said:


> Ok,  congratulations duly withdrawn....




thats nice 

my point is that you tried to give me stick over a call i made but in your haste to give me stick, you was too quick to type rather than read my post and when it was posted . i merely pointed this out and you replied with yet another smartarse comment ............. 

i forgive you , no apology needed from you 

my reasons for calling what i think is the short term top TODAY is based on my view of a self percieved overshoot and bounce along a resistance line i have in front of me, i do not PERSONALLY think it will have the balls behind it to continue past it for now and will make a quick retreat to regroup itself ......like i said i could be wrong which in turn will lead to a low % loss stopout scenario for ME 

again......... unless you willing to make a live call yourself in public, dont be so quick to point and attempt to give grief at others that are happy to 

apology accepted


yours sincerely 

an on topic nun


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

I should also point out that i currently hold NUMEROUS longs and in no way going to change my trading plan based on my view at present . i will continue to run my trailing stops and stoplosses on ALL longs and cannot see any reason to change my strategy . 

i have entered 2 short positions on 2 of my favorite market darlings ( resource and financial )( which are both contributers to the XJO and XAO) and both have tight stops based on MY percieved correct stoploss points 

i am in no way trading through feelings of "oh no its gone up too fast " or " we need to correct 15 % " blah blah blah 

it is merely trading with the flow and what i perceieve to be shorter term moves , the rest can ride until they tell me the partys over 

i do hope that clears things up for anyone that thinks i am " biased " or delusional in my trading habits


 a.nun


----------



## Dark1975 (8 October 2009)

Well breaking through on 4761 can only conclude we are going to see a new leg up, Altho a given there was a bit of resistance at 4770-4780 it was also lower than usual volume.But given the bullish sediment,And with futures indicating a possible strong start on the dow,Would think if the dow finished up in the green,Then tomorrow we will see new highs on the xao.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> Well breaking through on 4761 can only conclude we are going to see a new leg up, Altho a given there was a bit of resistance at 4770-4780 it was also lower than usual volume.But given the bullish sediment,And with futures indicating a possible strong start on the dow,Would think if the dow finished up in the green,Then tomorrow we will see new highs on the xao.




thats cool 

but how will you have traded today if you needed to wait until the yanks have finished?  ...... 

i mean if you are waiting to see what the yanks will do , would you have gone long or short today for tomorows open ? 

or would you have not entered a position and waited to see how it opens ?


----------



## Dark1975 (8 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> thats cool
> 
> but how will you have traded today if you needed to wait until the yanks have finished?  ......
> 
> ...




I Have no postions overnight currently i was uncertain,because honestly i had formed a strategy plan on a double top formation,In short i was wrong and will now use only 30% of my porfolio to follow the possibility of the last leg up(just following trend at the current time).
In reguards to your question on todays trading? I had began with shorts on Anz & Cba this morning(had stop losses placed on 0.5%)was closed out early,took a little loss and then re-entered longs on the same stocks,Recovered my losses for the day but closed my postion,waiting on tonight's actions on the dow.I was hoping for negative day on the dow i guess..


----------



## nunthewiser (8 October 2009)

fair enough and thanks for the replies 

we are different traders looking at the same stuff but in different ways 

have a good evening


----------



## Dark1975 (8 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> fair enough and thanks for the replies
> 
> we are different traders looking at the same stuff but in different ways
> 
> have a good evening




No worries mate
Agreed we all have different views,with the same common goal.
Cheers,You also have a great night


----------



## nunthewiser (9 October 2009)

another wrong live call on xao top 

financial stopped out , still in resource 

will step aside now and leave the live calls to the experts


----------



## RayG (9 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> another wrong live call on xao top
> 
> financial stopped out , still in resource
> 
> will step aside now and leave the live calls to the experts




Well, at least you made the call, and had the reasons to back it up.  Can't do much more than that.


----------



## Awesomandy (10 October 2009)

RayG said:


> Well, at least you made the call, and had the reasons to back it up.  Can't do much more than that.




And had proper stops in place as well. 

Oh well, you can't win them all.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 October 2009)

bump...........


any thoughts ? 

we still busting out? or are we going for the duck dive ?


----------



## cutz (12 October 2009)

We're heading for a dive, 

According to my analysis i could see a dreadful double top pattern forming.


----------



## nunthewiser (12 October 2009)

cutz said:


> We're heading for a dive,
> 
> According to my analysis i could see a dreadful double top pattern forming.





yep thats the way im  leaning also . still have an open short on a resource darling ........ too tight a stop on my previous financial entry but, being related to murphy, if i hadnt stopped out it would have flown to the moon.


still holding numerous longs which will be dealt with individually IF they tell me its time to hit the magic button


----------



## cutz (12 October 2009)

Agree nun,

BHP is a good contender for a nice put backspread, actually so is the whole index. 

Go Bears.


 Disclaimer, none of the above constitutes any form of advice, in fact for a higher chance of success do the opposite


----------



## clayton4115 (12 October 2009)

wall street spi up 57 points, looks like another good night for the bulls.


----------



## Timmy (12 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> wall street spi up 57 points, looks like another good night for the bulls.




What's a "wall street spi"?


----------



## nunthewiser (12 October 2009)

Timmy said:


> What's a "wall street spi"?




one of them dudes in the dark glasses and a big ole raincoat


----------



## clayton4115 (12 October 2009)

lol

you know those guys with the dark sunnies and trenchcoats


----------



## nunthewiser (12 October 2009)

and i thought i was a slow typist


----------



## Timmy (12 October 2009)

OK, thanks Nun, got it.


----------



## Nyden (12 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> and i thought i was a slow typist


----------



## Timmy (12 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> and i thought i was a slow typist




Who said anything about typing?


----------



## Dark1975 (13 October 2009)

Shorted alot of the financials,Deja vu for me.With low volume,would suggest alot of people are uncertain,Possibly awaiting the up-coming third quarter results on wall street.Any way in short,Seems the market will pause or consolidate.Anyone placing shorts atm?Or feeling that this is a important junction point?


----------



## nomore4s (13 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> Shorted alot of the financials,Deja vu for me.With low volume,would suggest alot of people are uncertain,Possibly awaiting the up-coming third quarter results on wall street.Any way in short,Seems the market will pause or consolidate.Anyone placing shorts atm?Or feeling that this is a important junction point?




Still too much strength in the markets for me to enter any shorts with any confidence. Just managing my long positions atm.

The trend is still well and truly up and until I see some signs of weakness I will continue to trade with the trend. Todays price action after the last 2 days is pretty bullish imo. Also remember low volume can be bullish as it indicates no supply at these levels - I certainly don't see any selling into strength yet.


----------



## nunthewiser (13 October 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> .Anyone placing shorts atm? ?





i added to my short resource market darling today 

i hold 3 parcels, slightly larger trade than usual. if i am wrong i will get over it.  

37.86

38.16

38.20

all parcels will be stopped out at same time on my percieved stop point


elvis is on my side


still holding numerous longs which will be dealt with individually IF they tell me its time to hit the magic button


----------



## Dark1975 (13 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> i added to my short resource market darling today
> 
> i hold 3 parcels, slightly larger trade than usual. if i am wrong i will get over it.
> 
> ...




Actually i like those shorts on BHP,
I Actually shorted 2 parcels of CBA and one on ANZ

53.63

53.68

24.65

Have also placed stop losses of 0.85% on all three parcels if the dow bounces upward tonight.
Well cheers for your trade plans.Well bit early,but futures on the ftse 100 and dow are in negative territory.
Cheers nun for your reply


----------



## clayton4115 (14 October 2009)

good on you for taking those courageous shorts

however market seems to have pentrated the key 4800 level

5000 looks ever so close now.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 October 2009)

nothing wrong with my BHP trade so far ............. 

individual stocks , individual stops 

i am an individual


----------



## surfziggy (15 October 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> nothing wrong with my BHP trade so far .............
> 
> individual stocks , individual stops
> 
> i am an individual




You stopped out yet, nun?

BHP=38.92 just now

Doesn't look like rolling over yet. IMHO the trend is still up. Why fight it?


----------



## cutz (15 October 2009)

Nah,

Nice little head and shoulders pattern forming on BHP, the day of reckoning is near.


----------



## morcheeba (15 October 2009)

This market is driving me crazy....I sold most of my shares last week.   Haven't played the CFD game yet, checked it out yesterday but can't download the add on to etrade on a work computer.  Who else will work? IG Markets?


----------



## nunthewiser (15 October 2009)

39.45 will see me out

not fighting anything ....... was merely playing probabilities as I saw them at the time 

if i had the benefit of a hindsight indicator as many others have, my entrys would have been a lot better


----------



## alter1217 (2 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I really do hope we don't follow the dow down that much... china seems to be doing well atm. bottoming at 4300 sounds the most reasonable.


----------



## Donga (2 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



alter1217 said:


> I really do hope we don't follow the dow down that much... china seems to be doing well atm. bottoming at 4300 sounds the most reasonable.




After skim reading recent Reserve Bank update and taking a peek at the Dow futures, I'll venture 4400 as this correction bottom, i.e. 10%


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 November 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

On the contrary, I predict a veritable tsunami of strategically released "better than expected" data to be fed to the Oz media chooks over the coming week to counter any further negative sentiment.

XAO to beat 5000 by Xmas.

;o)


----------



## Donga (3 November 2009)

I'm with you Aussiejeff, calling a mild correction and 5000 by Christmas. 

Folk preoccupied by slow US recovery perhaps haven't got their arms around Chindia


----------



## Dark1975 (3 November 2009)

Still waiting on further price action,but at the moment 4488 is a key technical resistance line.I'm still of the opinion there's still more of a downturn to come,We still follow the dow,XAO hasn't decoupled on it's own yet.
Interesting to note consumer confidence reports/unemployment on wall street next month will be a true indicator on where we are heading.
Personally as a investor/day trader the risk to reward ratio must be looked at.
I mean short term top to 5000-5100 on the xao is a 10% gain.But the loss can be 10-50%(granted if the 3700 key resistant line holds).
So i see myself only using Cfd's on a daily basis.(In short 100% of my portfolio is in cash at the current time,Only trading day to day until i can see more solid evidence on which way we are heading.
So with the last few threads saying 5000 on the xao by xmas,I'll go the otherway and say 3700 before xmas,maybe by march we will see the previous march lows again(going on ew)
gogo my shorts


----------



## nunthewiser (10 November 2009)

FWIW

Today i have entered  shorts on 3 of my favorite market darlings . All 3 positions are of a smaller nature .

my reasonings are in the form of many "head and shoulder patterns and various previous resistance points .

my stoploss points are of a low % loss and based on todays highs.

basically a probability play based on bouncing off other "potential" shoulder with the Genourosity of the trades giving me a low risk/reward entry.

I still hold longs and will keep to my trailing stops and stoplosses.

i could be wrong and get a quick smack on the cheeks but hey ya gotta be in it to win it


----------



## cutz (10 November 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> my reasonings are in the form of many "head and shoulder patterns and various previous resistance points .




Luv your work nun,

Don't want to sound like a parrot but quite a decent head and shoulder pattern is also forming on the XJO, a triple top on your favorite and let the games begin.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 November 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> FWIW
> 
> Today i have entered  shorts on 3 of my favorite market darlings . All 3 positions are of a smaller nature .
> 
> my reasonings are in the form of many "head and shoulder patterns and variousprevious resistance points .



None the wiser, I do believe you tried this a month or two ago and it failed because the market rallied from then. Will be interesting to see if you picked it right this time if only to say you did.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 November 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> None the wiser, I do believe you tried this a month or two ago and it failed because the market rallied from then. Will be interesting to see if you picked it right this time if only to say you did.





Picked it wrong a few times of late actually. Anything posted here are merely MY movements and plans , I would think anyone would be highly foolish to even considser basing there trades or actions on ANYTHING i might post ...

I trade for me , no one else, my losses are exactly that MY losses ...... happy to take losses ,all part of the day .


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (12 November 2009)

Just curious, does anyone on here use Aussie Stock Report? I was thinking of joinng but not sure if they are worth the $...


----------



## nunthewiser (17 November 2009)

For Rockon 

A querie from chat why i entered BHP short today .... 

Everyone else pay no heed as im often wrong as shown in this thread already

thanks for the facility Joe


----------



## oztrades (17 November 2009)

Dow vs XAO


----------



## cutz (17 November 2009)

Is this how you read it nun, potentially a false break.

Interesting how 40 has been like a brick wall with increased volumes off it.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 November 2009)

cutz said:


> Is this how you read it nun, potentially a false break.
> 
> Interesting how 40 has been like a brick wall with increased volumes off it.





Just a  trade m8 ....... could be wrong...and it cost me a couple of sheckels ....sheet happens......... But yeah its what im looking at from MY chair at present.


----------



## oztrades (17 November 2009)

xao & xjo & s@p


----------



## oztrades (17 November 2009)

3 month of above chart


----------



## oztrades (17 November 2009)

above with dow


----------



## oztrades (17 November 2009)

dow & xao 5years


----------



## cutz (17 November 2009)

Thanks oztrades,

Now can we have some commentary ? 

This is a banter thread after all.


----------



## oztrades (17 November 2009)

sure cutz... np... basically dow still trending but xao broken trendline, giving rise for shorters to exclaim the end is nigh.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 November 2009)

The end is nigh


----------



## cutz (17 November 2009)

Geez,

If that wasn't a sell off dunno what is.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

amp, anz, cba, mqg, tls, wbc & wdc are all down. These are all market movers that would offset any contribution from any market gains of bhp & rio.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

IMO part of todays drop would have been ppl exiting banks to jump into resources. This pushed banks down and resources up. This was then compounded when ppl already in resources pushed resources down as they take their profits, particularly BHP and RIO.


----------



## cutz (17 November 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> particularly BHP and RIO.




I did notice heavy trading in the BHP puts, particularly the dec 36 strike.

Maybe a lot of MM delta hedging activity.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

Riddick said:


> any one else watching history channel at the moment. they are showing the Bernie Madoff bio. the guy was a complete  A-Hole!
> 
> I wonder what the penalty would be in the Australian legal system for a guy that all out stole 65 billion.
> 
> kind of makes you not want to trust anyone with your $$$




Well he would probably end up owning half of Australia and get a knighthood...or be made leader of a political party...or both ???


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

Joe Blow said:


> My understanding of this thread is that its purpose it for those who want to be able to chat about the XAO without having to present any TA analysis of it. As long as thread participants are prepared to back up their assertions by also posting the reasoning that led them to their conclusion(s) then I have no problem with it. I do, however, have a problem with a post like "I think the XAO will drop 50 points today". Without explaining why, the post serves no purpose whatsoever.
> 
> If people simply wish to "banter" and this thread ends up becoming directionless and unfocussed with people chatting about what they had for breakfast then I really don't see the point when we have a live chat room that is devoted to directionless random chat.




That Sir is an unfounded slur on the many good people that contribute daily to the high quality of stock analysis in the live chat room. "Directionless random chat" indeed. Pistols at dawn, my seconds will be in touch.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

beerwm said:


> continue stimulus....but...increase rates?
> 
> working against each other arent they?




Have to agree with this one. They stuffed up the interest rate rises before and now they seem to be in a hurry to stuff them up again.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> For Rockon
> 
> A querie from chat why i entered BHP short today ....
> 
> ...




$36.00 looks like a recurring level of support. I might take more interest in this one going forward.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

As a seperate issue, is there anyway of linking to the threads you have posted in so that they display on a seperate list when you log on?
This would make it easier to track any developments in threads you are interested in.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 November 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> As a seperate issue, is there anyway of linking to the threads you have posted in so that they display on a seperate list when you log on?
> This would make it easier to track any developments in threads you are interested in.





Dunno about that scenario but do know that you can set your user settings to recieve an email if anyone replys to a post of yours.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 November 2009)

Thanks Nun, I get too many emails as it is without adding further alerts to the viagra adds, nigerian widows pleas and the lottery wins I haven't bought tickets in.


----------



## nomore4s (17 November 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> As a seperate issue, is there anyway of linking to the threads you have posted in so that they display on a seperate list when you log on?
> This would make it easier to track any developments in threads you are interested in.






nunthewiser said:


> Dunno about that scenario but do know that you can set your user settings to recieve an email if anyone replys to a post of yours.




Nulla, if you click on the User CP button when you log in it will bring up all the threads you are subscribed to that have new posts.


----------



## nunthewiser (26 November 2009)

FWIW.

I have added to my BHP short position today ........ not much room left to prove im wrong ......... Well aware of a loss maybe imminent ........ MY trade .....Do not use my examples as ANY base for ones own tradinng .


----------



## nunthewiser (26 November 2009)

FWIW 

Entered ANZ short today also ......... stop at 2237..


Another trade where i am comfortable with my losses expected ......... 


Still holding other longs as posted in various threads around here just merely having a punt each way

Have a nice day


----------



## Wysiwyg (26 November 2009)

> nunthewiser said:
> 
> 
> > FWIW.
> ...




None the wiser, Just wondering if you use the Daily Gross Short Sales list as a guide. Do understand if you do not want to reveal any part of your strategy.

w.


----------



## nomore4s (27 November 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> FWIW.
> 
> I have added to my BHP short position today ........ not much room left to prove im wrong ......... Well aware of a loss maybe imminent ........ MY trade .....Do not use my examples as ANY base for ones own tradinng .




Might be a good play in the end nun.

Good chance of an island reversal tomorrow imo. Unfortunately I got shaken out of my short on BHP yesterday but may look to re-enter if an island reversal does play out. Thought about re-entering my short this arvo but it didn't close low enough in the bar for me to justify it.


----------



## nomore4s (27 November 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Might be a good play in the end nun.
> 
> Good chance of an island reversal tomorrow imo. Unfortunately I got shaken out of my short on BHP yesterday but may look to re-enter if an island reversal does play out. Thought about re-entering my short this arvo but it didn't close low enough in the bar for me to justify it.




Got the gap down, now we need to see it try to fill the gap and fail for that island reversal. Might post some analysis on the BHP thread later tonight.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 November 2009)

Wysiwyg said:


> None the wiser, Just wondering if you use the Daily Gross Short Sales list as a guide. Do understand if you do not want to reveal any part of your strategy.
> 
> w.




No , i merely use that list as a matter of intrest from time to time......

Got no problems saying why, how , who i trade, as what i do is for me and honestly do not think it would work the same way for any other trader that is not me.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 November 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> No , i merely use that list as a matter of intrest from time to time......
> 
> Got no problems saying why, how , who i trade, as what i do is for me and honestly do not think it would work the same way for any other trader that is not me.




G'day Mr Wiser

Are you still shorting BHP? You would have done well out of yesterdays action. Do you see it falling further?


----------



## nunthewiser (28 November 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> G'day Mr Wiser
> 
> Are you still shorting BHP? You would have done well out of yesterdays action. Do you see it falling further?




Gday mr nulla

Yep i have not closed any short positions


Will see what monday brings.


----------



## prawn_86 (28 November 2009)

Why isn't half of this thread in the BHP thread?


----------



## grace (28 November 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Why isn't half of this thread in the BHP thread?




Well, 87% of it.  Isn't BHP 13% of our market?

I guess it has a bit of relevance to the banter thread.


----------



## nunthewiser (29 November 2009)

Will use generic brand names in the future instead of naming individual market weighters.


----------



## Whiskers (14 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Sudden 30 odd point jump in last 25 or so min corresponded exactly with about 1/2 cent rise in AUDUSD and about 40 cents in BHP 

Does anyone have total XAO volume chart?


----------



## MRC & Co (14 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Whiskers said:


> Sudden 30 odd point jump in last 25 or so min corresponded exactly with about 1/2 cent rise in AUDUSD and about 40 cents in BHP
> 
> Does anyone have total XAO volume chart?




Positive funding news on Dubai.


----------



## nulla nulla (15 December 2009)

Interesting surge in the XAO during the closing auction yesterday. It appeared to gain a further 7 points, closing on 4668. On Friday it dropped 7 points in the closing Auction.

Also, this morning the DOW has closed above 10,500 and the Nasdaq above 2200. I wonder if the widening gap in the trend on the DOW versus the trend on the XAO is a reflection on any changes to foreign invesment in the XAO?


----------



## nunthewiser (24 December 2009)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

ONLY OPINION .........

We got maybe 40 -60- ZERO points left in this current rally. Before a healthy retractment to the 4500-4550 area.......... first stop.

Like i said opinion only and nothing i say should be used for trading strategys by any bright eyed bushy tailed traders.



didnt know whether to post this here or the banter thread ...........move it if not appropriate here


----------



## nunthewiser (5 January 2010)

FWIW .

I have entered 3 short positions involving a resource market darling, and a financial .

I still hold longs also on numerous other stocks so just a case of hedging my bets .

TIGHT stops and sizing accordingly .

CRASHNBURN ya suckers i say


----------



## nulla nulla (5 January 2010)

Time to close out all the long positions you reckon Mr Wiser?


----------



## DaveMac (5 January 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> FWIW .
> 
> I still hold longs also on numerous other stocks so just a case of hedging my bets .
> 
> ...




I am still riding longs, with tight stops also.  No one wants to be left behind in a new rally, but no one wants to be holding longs when the market tanks, either


----------



## nunthewiser (5 January 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Time to close out all the long positions you reckon Mr Wiser?





Hell no mr Nulla ......... ride em just dont get too attached when they start tanking around your previously set trailing stop level ..... Gotta keep them profits m8


----------



## nulla nulla (6 January 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Hell no mr Nulla ......... ride em just dont get too attached when they start tanking around your previously set trailing stop level ..... Gotta keep them profits m8




Got my list of keeper shares and my list of "shut them down and lock in the profits" shares. Watching and wary of any hint of another correction.


----------



## gazelle (7 January 2010)

*XAO*

Looking for a Top on The XAO 7th January at approx 4963 .


----------



## nulla nulla (7 January 2010)

*Re: XAO*



gazelle said:


> Looking for a Top on The XAO 7th January at approx 4963 .




Can you add some reasoning for your perspective, please?


----------



## glendaw101 (11 January 2010)

*Will the All Ords break 5000 today?*

The All Ordinaries Index (XAO) was up 0.65pct or 32.3points to 4974.5.

Will it close above 5000?


----------



## cutz (12 January 2010)

*Re: Will the All Ords break 5000 today?*

What a shame, so close yet so far.


----------



## thresher (12 January 2010)

*Re: XAO*



nulla nulla said:


> Can you add some reasoning for your perspective, please?




50% fib retracement level from the 07 high


----------



## sammy84 (12 January 2010)

*Re: Will the All Ords break 5000 today?*



cutz said:


> What a shame, so close yet so far.




She certainly didn't want to plough straight through 5000. Nevertheless a bit of consolidation around new highs under resistance can be very healthy.


----------



## nulla nulla (24 January 2010)

Might need to find some support levels for a bounce now that China is tightening up spending (curbing imports of Iron Ore, Coal etc) and Barak Obama has started a sell-off of financial shares. Otherwise we will be heading for 4500 and not 5000.


----------



## jancha (24 January 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Might need to find some support levels for a bounce now that China is tightening up spending (curbing imports of Iron Ore, Coal etc) and Barak Obama has started a sell-off of financial shares. Otherwise we will be heading for 4500 and not 5000.




Tomorrows trading should follow the dows 2% drop. 
The Australia public holiday on Tuesday couldn't have come at a worse time with the dow having two days of trading before the asx opens on Wednesday.
Could be in for a large fall.
Any takers?


----------



## Dark1975 (5 February 2010)

Can't wait to see Jan/feb job number's.Sure all economy's looked great on paper with the xmas spending period nov/dec. Now we are going to see how the market is really fairing,with up and coming job figures of Jan/feb.
If we look at past crashes,most gained 50% from there lows with in the year,but with all the past crashes,phase 2:take's place.As the markets look as if they were on there way to recovery(The false dawn).The past crashes evidently retract again 6-12mths later to there lows.
The question is,will we see another retraction back to the march lows?
My personal answer is yes,and looking at the upcoming data from wall street for january,it aint pretty.The next few months will be interesting,can't wait!
Been sitting on the side lines since november(now in 100% cash position.) and waiting for wave 2: The false dawn.
Will the teddy bears have there picnic? I hope so !


----------



## nulla nulla (5 February 2010)

Our fall of 29 on the xao was fallowed by huge falls arround the globe: 
DAX  -138.85 ;
FTSE -113.84 ;
Hang Seng -380.44 ;
Nikkei  -48.35;
DOW -268.37 (8:00am); and
NASDAQ -65.48 (8:00am).

The dow has given up 600 points in recent weeks and the xao has given up 300 points since October/November 2090. Are the US & European markets simply correcting their overheated recovery?

It is hard to convince oneself that this is only a correction and not the start of the second stage of the original reversal. This slump relates to the US and European economies and a growing concern over their levels of debt. If this turns into a groundswell like the prime mortgages did we are in for a quick downward run.


----------



## sammy84 (5 February 2010)

Is this a new leg down or another washout of dead wood in the system? 

The instos cant have given up their game for the year already! 

Will be very interesting to see the charts tonight and look for some form of stopping volume in indv stocks, bullish divergence etc. I find hard to believe we weren't going to have a few more unsuccessful cracks at 5000 this month. Then again, Feb tends to be a seasonally bad month.


----------



## Aussiest (5 February 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> If this turns into a groundswell like the prime mortgages did we are in for a quick downward run.




Let's hope for a quick run down as opposed to a slow grind. I will be watching for 4000, and then 3600, as 4500 is clearly going to be breached.

S'cuse the shabby chart.. I think it would take something drastic for us to reach double bottom, such as another financial institution going bankrupt, or... something new and unexpected? This bearishness seems to be more insidious this time due to false optimism.


----------



## Dark1975 (6 February 2010)

Well the dow is currently down -100 points under the magic 10,000 mark,well if the dow finshes today's trade down,it will be interesting on monday on the xao.I'd say we might be testing 4487 resistance line on the xao,and if it breaks we might see the next leg down to 4000 on the xao/or for the EW's theory forming a larger picture of wc 2.
In saying that,all depends on a lot of factors also,one being the dow,Well monday will be interesting either way,Either a great buying opp/or a larger picture forming for the next leg down,I'm betting the next leg down.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 February 2010)

It appears that all the key markets, Euyopean, Asian and American are now focused on the negative aspects of the Euro members overeaching themselves to join the union (and their populace being unwilling to accept curbs in spending and reduction of debt).
This appears to be seen as another "bubble" ready to pop with potential global finanial ramifications in the finance industry. This fear is not going to abate overnight, there is no oil rich brother to bail them out. I now expect to see a persistant sell down on the XAO particularly in the banking and investment sectors. This time I suspect the bargain hunters will be more cautious on their re-entry points.


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

To much doom and gloom for me to soon, it will arrive but I suspect a little bit later in the year.
The two gap down days 21 & 22 of Jan still need to be filled. The second gap down being significantly larger than the first. 

I see a rally in the next week or so to come up and fill these gaps 4900, maybe the well expected March rally before heading back down to the depths of 4200.

The US is just starting to wake up to the reality that they are drowning in debt and the only course of action to save the empire is to start deleveraging. This reality has not yet sunk in and proved by the reelection of Benake. It will take some time for them to accept that debt is the problem and not the answer, when they realise this,  panic and fear will return in full force.

Also, the XAO closed yesterday on %38.2 retracement from the March lows after intitally gaining back %50 and dropping back to the Fib level. 

Cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (6 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> To much doom and gloom for me to soon, it will arrive but I suspect a little bit later in the year.
> The two gap down days 21 & 22 of Jan still need to be filled. The second gap down being significantly larger than the first.
> 
> I see a rally in the next week or so to come up and fill these gaps 4900, maybe the well expected March rally before heading back down to the depths of 4200.
> ...




I think the U.S. realises that debt is the problem but they need to go further into debt to create the stimulus to create the income to reduce the debt. We see the market going sideways. also. I suspect a further retrace between 
now and the end of February followed by a bounce in March - April before another slump in May - June. I will be pleasantly surprised if the xao bounces as high as 4900 but i suspect it would peak arround 4800. I have no idea on the lows. They will be determined by the extent of panic, the tightening of fiscal policy in China impacting on our resource stocks and the impending implosion of the European economy.


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> I think the U.S. realises that debt is the problem but they need to go further into debt to create the stimulus to create the income to reduce the debt.




This is the reason for the problem in the first place. Debt does not create real jobs, it just buys time. When the US and the world finally wake up to this reality and the fact that their standard of living must change, watch out down below.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> The two gap down days 21 & 22 of Jan still need to be filled. The second gap down being significantly larger than the first.
> 
> I see a rally in the next week or so to come up and fill these gaps 4900, maybe the well expected March rally before heading back down to the depths of 4200.




You know satanoperca that just about every day is a gap day, only you will never see it looking at the data that the ASX provide.   

Those that trade index gaps don't look at XJO/XAO data from the ASX.


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

Hi T/H,

What data do they look at then?

My source of data is from premiumdata which I assume originates from the ASX but could be wrong.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Hi T/H,
> 
> What data do they look at then?
> 
> ...




The problem with the ASX indexes are two fold. Firstly because of the staggered open from 10:00 to 10:08 the opening tick of XJO/XAO is not the true value of "opening price" of all index constituents, this is unique to ASX. In fact the data from 10:00 to 10:08 is really twilight zone stuff.

Secondly and even more strange is sometimes the first tick that the ASX provides for indexes is magically exactly the same as yesterday close, to two decimal points?? Now that would only be possible if all 400 or so stocks, particularly the big caps, that open in the first round at 10:00 am (A to B) traded at their closing price. It doesn't happen! Where this comes from is that the opening auction is at 10:00 am *+/- 15 secs* BUT if its say 10:00: +12 seconds the ASX will still take the index quote from 10:00. even if nothing has traded yet!!!! That's why half the time yesterdays first tick for indexes is yesterdays close!! It Farking stupid!!

To get around this there are charts out there called something like ASX Index GAP Charts which take their opening price from the first of every constituents trade, although thats not perfect either because by the time the last opens the first has already move stacks.

The simplest way to get an idea of the gap is to just look at the SPI chart dailycash session. Here is one. Notice that there are gaps all over the place. This is what index traders use.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

Whoops this line should read like,

That's why half the time todays first tick for indexes is yesterdays close!! It Farking stupid!!


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

Thanks for the reply T/H, much appreciated but I'm still a little confused.

The two gap down days I mentioned in the XAO chart should not be considered in looking at the future direction of the index because of some twilight zone stuff that happens at the time of open making the data meaningless?

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Thanks for the reply T/H, much appreciated but I'm still a little confused.
> 
> The two gap down days I mentioned in the XAO chart should not be considered in looking at the future direction of the index because of some twilight zone stuff that happens at the time of open making the data meaningless?
> 
> Cheers




My point is why make those gaps anymore meaningful that all the other gaps? There is literally one every day though they rarely show up on an ASX XAO chart. Are you going to give more significance to the ones that you see because of a dodgy methodology?


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

The answer to your question is yes, will I take trades based solely on those gaps, no, the overall prevailing market conditions and other information will determine that. To discount them because there is gaps I cannot see in the charts seems strange. Will you prove to be right or wrong, only time will tell.

So you believe that no credence should be given to them?

I'm sorry I have to ask again, but some of your remarks/comments seem quite cryptic to me as I am of a simple mind.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

Never mind, carry on.


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

So you will provide no answer, full of wisdom but no answer.

Thanks


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Are you going to give more significance to the ones that you see because of a dodgy methodology?






satanoperca said:


> The answer to your question is yes,




No more needs to be said. You want to make them significant, although I don't think they are, thats fine we all trade own own biases.


----------



## Naked shorts (6 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Debt does not create real jobs, it just buys time. When the US and the world finally wake up to this reality and the fact that their standard of living must change, watch out down below.




Providing liquidity by going into debt boosts investor confidence which in turn causes them to put money into speculative assets again (like companies), which in turn creates jobs. 
How many people are currently saying the world is about to end compared to 1 year ago?


----------



## satanoperca (6 February 2010)

Mate, please read my reply. At no point did I say they were significant, just something that should be taken into consideration. But read into it what you will.

You finally answered the question, wasn't hard was it. You don't place much credence on them, that is all I was asking. No cryptic intentions or hidden messages at all.

Ah, you use the word bias, very interesting, the reason why I started a thread on the subject. The thread was started due to two individuals (who seem very capable traders with lots of knowledge) who seem to have extreme bias towards their own opinions and often clouded that there is more than one way to skin a cat. One of them replied immediately to the thread mentioning the other. Quite funny all in all.

Cheers and thank-you.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Mate, please read my reply. At no point did I say they were significant, just something that should be taken into consideration. But read into it what you will.
> 
> You finally answered the question, wasn't hard was it. You don't place much credence on them, that is all I was asking. No cryptic intentions or hidden messages at all.
> 
> ...





I do give "credence" to gaps I trade them day in day out. Just no "credence" to the ones shown on an XAO/XJO chart. That is my point   they are everywhere but you cannot find them on a XAO/XJO chart
Understand?

EDIT: I also am starting to understand that spending 20 min trying to explain something in an factual way, such as my attempted at post# 209 is a farking waste of time. And more than likely going to end up looking like a tosser. And end up with being labeled one, as per you last remark.


----------



## Timmy (6 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> EDIT: I also am starting to understand that spending 20 min trying to explain something in an factual way, such as my attempted at post# 209 is a farking waste of time. And more than likely going to end up looking like a tosser. And end up with being labeled one, as per you last remark.




I reckon there is a *sizeable *majority on ASF that, while they may not always fully understand everything you spend time explaining, very much appreciate getting quality information and views direct from a successful trader.


----------



## sammy84 (6 February 2010)

Sometimes people don't fully understand the tool their trading. THe psychology behind gap fills works well on individual stocks, I would say that it is inapplicable on an index with a staggered open. 

Gap fills work on the basis that market participants don't like leave price level untested.


----------



## marknz88 (8 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> I do give "credence" to gaps I trade them day in day out. Just no "credence" to the ones shown on an XAO/XJO chart. That is my point   they are everywhere but you cannot find them on a XAO/XJO chart
> Understand?
> 
> EDIT: I also am starting to understand that spending 20 min trying to explain something in an factual way, such as my attempted at post# 209 is a farking waste of time. And more than likely going to end up looking like a tosser. And end up with being labeled one, as per you last remark.




I appreciated the explanation. This was something that now pointed out is ever so obvious (re the staggered start -> first tick) that I would never have picked up on if it hadn't have been pointed out.

So thanks.


----------



## wayneL (8 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> I reckon there is a *sizeable *majority on ASF that, while they may not always fully understand everything you spend time explaining, very much appreciate getting quality information and views direct from a successful trader.



Seconded.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 February 2010)

marknz88 said:


> I appreciated the explanation. This was something that now pointed out is ever so obvious (re the staggered start -> first tick) that I would never have picked up on if it hadn't have been pointed out.
> 
> So thanks.




Just on the first tick problem. have a look at my blog. On further investigation seems the ASX have changed slightly their method around Feb 08. but it hasn't completely removed the problem.

Will follow it up and see where the change came from. 



wayneL said:


> Seconded.


----------



## finnsk (8 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> I reckon there is a *sizeable *majority on ASF that, while they may not always fully understand everything you spend time explaining, very much appreciate getting quality information and views direct from a successful trader.



Can only speak for my self, but I do appreciate the time and effort that traders like TH, and many others, use trying to teach useless traders like my self, to survive in this difficult game, that at most time make no sense to me, so thank you to everybody that use there time in this way, and I hope that one day I will be able to repay by helping others in some way.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 February 2010)

Been on the Turps for 2 days and likely to be for the next 2 days also ......... so my cash is not where my mouth is  so pay no heed to a drunken thought.........

Personally think we may be lucky and have a slight bounce here BUT my thoughts are that any bounce will be brief and we heading for a decent selloff to break this channel south .

Also my Poster ocillitituilator is at an all time high with calls of new highs and continuation of this semi bull charge......

I could be wrong and all the rest of you are right


----------



## satanoperca (8 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Been on the Turps for 2 days and likely to be for the next 2 days also ......... so my cash is not where my mouth is  so pay no heed to a drunken thought.........




Ah you have finally found your edge. As they say, once found just keep doing it, but do remember your liver might not bounce back as well as the market and god for bid, you are right and it is complete failure.

Cheers


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Well, well.

The DOW has plunged in late trading - looks like it will finish well BELOW the 10,000 mark.

Anyone like to suggest that is not significant and that the XAO will open UP?

Not this little Black Duck.


----------



## Broadway (9 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> Well, well.
> 
> The DOW has plunged in late trading - looks like it will finish well BELOW the 10,000 mark.
> 
> ...




Hey Aussie,
Ill take you up on that, I think the markets in general will treat last night's dip on close as a double bottom from friday night, and we will eventually make a small move up in the next 24-48 hours.
I know its a gutsy call..I know we're in a bear market, but we'll see.


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Hey Aussie,
> Ill take you up on that, I think the markets in general will treat last night's dip on close as a double bottom from friday night, and we will eventually make a small move up in the next 24-48 hours.
> I know its a gutsy call..I know we're in a bear market, but we'll see.




Yep just like yesterdays excitement faded out so to will todays drop (as my guess). interesting that the rest of Asia was red yesterday.

we always follow wall street


----------



## Aussiejeff (9 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Broadway said:


> Hey Aussie,
> Ill take you up on that, I think the markets in general will treat last night's dip on close as a double bottom from friday night, and we will eventually make a small move up in the next 24-48 hours.
> I know its a gutsy call..I know we're in a bear market, but we'll see.




Hard man! Ya better start buying then to support the AOX.... LOL *edit* - just noticed a lil' spike up after this morning's opening sell-off. That you?  

Still, 24hrs IS an eternity in the brave new world of Insta-eMarkets. Plenty of time for the big boys to make some plays and get their mates in high places to release some "unexpectedly good" news before the close.

Good luck...


aj


----------



## Out Too Soon (9 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The more things change the more things stay the same!
I expect doom & gloom for another month or so for whatever random reasons (Greece etc at the moment) & an insipid weak recovery later in the year. After that I wish I knew, wish I realised this earlier in the year too  I'd be investing now (or soon) instead of already fully in 
  Have fun, **** happens & we might as well grin & bear it (Patiently)


----------



## Dark1975 (9 February 2010)

Dark1975 said:


> Well the dow is currently down -100 points under the magic 10,000 mark,well if the dow finshes today's trade down,it will be interesting on monday on the xao.*I'd say we might be testing 4487 resistance line on the xao,and if it breaks we might see the next leg down to 4000 on the xao/or for the EW's theory forming a larger picture of wc 2.
> In saying that,all depends on a lot of factors also,one being the dow,Well monday will be interesting either way,Either a great buying opp/or a larger picture forming for the next leg down,I'm betting the next leg down.[/B]*



*

Does a bear **** in the woods ....tank /baby /tank i'm cashed and ready *


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

The Raging Bull is set to return to the Circus Maximus arena today.

*Rumour* has it a *possible* cure for the Big Fat Greek Hangover *might* be invented *sometime* in the future.

Well, that's gotta be something to rejoice, eh?

Pizza anyone??


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Aussiejeff said:


> The Raging Bull is set to return to the Circus Maximus arena today.
> 
> *Rumour* has it a *possible* cure for the Big Fat Greek Hangover *might* be invented *sometime* in the future.
> 
> ...




Had the pizza last night courtesy of a couple of small interday bounces in WOW. The greek bailout rumour swept into the US market and the speculators jumped in for a day trade pushing the dow up more than 200 points before the profit takers started locking in their profits. The close, DOW +150.25 (+1.52%) at 10,058.64 and the NASDAQ +24.82 (+1.17%) at 2,150.87 should bring the bargain hunters and day traders into operation in Australia today as well.

Whether this will see the xao start a rally back above 4750 (not in one day) or be merely a pause before sliding under 4500 remains to be seen. Personally I don't know where it is going but I enjoy reading all the opinions posted, subjective or objective.


----------



## tunrida (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wholly pathetic effort by bulls today given large positive lead by US.
If still long or at least not covered you need to quickly ask yourself why.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tunrida said:


> Wholly pathetic effort by bulls today given large positive lead by US.
> If still long or at least not covered you need to quickly ask yourself why.




Just as well today was forecast by rampantly bullish economic commentators Craig James etc to be the BIG UP day this week (BHP, CBA et all....)

Otherwise, XAO might have finished near 4400? 

PS - Looks like the herd of bulls were determined to get the last bite of the cherry in the post-close bidding war - UP 8pts.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I disagree. The banter thread was opened to allow Mr Nunthewiser and Oztrades from the chat site to exchange perspectives in respect of trading styles and interpretation of charts. Other chat site memebers subsequently joined in and then ASF members not given to popping into the chat site also joined in. This "banter" encouraged other ASF members to check out the chat site. (This was actualy before you became a regular in the chat site).

The second issue is your narrow definition of "annalysis". If we stick to hard line interpretaion per the historical definitions, comments, observations and interpretations will become stilted in their narrow interpretaions and the quality and diversity will suffer.

I recommend that the removed posts be restored to enable the continuity of the thread to be preserved and the Australian right of "freedom of Speech" be maintained.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 February 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> I disagree.
> I recommend that the removed posts be restored to enable the continuity of the thread to be preserved and the Australian right of "freedom of Speech" be maintained.




I disagree. The forum threads are best kept on subject and I have rarely seen an iron fist approach to posters that have gone off on a tangent. Within any dialogue there is usually a stray from subject and I think the forum  monitors do the right thing by moving "a collection" of off topic posts to the appropriate thread.

However,  sometimes there is no thread relative to the dialogue tangent and to start one for a brief exchange is not realistic.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> I disagree. The forum threads are best kept on subject and I have rarely seen an iron fist approach to posters that have gone off on a tangent. Within any dialogue there is usually a stray from subject and I think the forum  monitors do the right thing by moving "a collection" of off topic posts to the appropriate thread.
> 
> However,  sometimes there is no thread relative to the dialogue tangent and to start one for a brief exchange is not realistic.




I guess this is one of the reasons I support freedom of speech. Persons with differing view points can express themselves freely without fear of recrimination.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 February 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> I guess this is one of the reasons I support freedom of speeck. Persons with differing view points can express themselves freely without fear of recrimination.




Well in fact there is a limit to 'where' one can free speak. Ones own backyard is likely the best location but in public I think you will experience rejection of certain types of free speak. In an owned space such as a forum there are guidelines which are not at all restrictive but are designed to allow human minds to release their content in an organised and friendly manner.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 February 2010)

Bugga, I obviously missed all the good bits .


----------



## nomore4s (10 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> I disagree. The banter thread was opened to allow Mr Nunthewiser and Oztrades from the chat site to exchange perspectives in respect of trading styles and interpretation of charts. Other chat site memebers subsequently joined in and then ASF members not given to popping into the chat site also joined in. This "banter" encouraged other ASF members to check out the chat site. (This was actualy before you became a regular in the chat site).
> 
> The second issue is your narrow definition of "annalysis". If we stick to hard line interpretaion per the historical definitions, comments, observations and interpretations will become stilted in their narrow interpretaions and the quality and diversity will suffer.
> 
> I recommend that the removed posts be restored to enable the continuity of the thread to be preserved and the Australian right of "freedom of Speech" be maintained.




This has been discussed before.

The Analysis thread is for analysis, general discussion can go here to keep the analysis thread uncluttered and ordered.

I'm also not sure where the whole free speech thing is coming from, no posts have been deleted only moved. 
The free speech thing has also been discussed in various threads around the place and it is not a debate I'm going to get in to again - the forum rules are the forum rules and that's that.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> Well in fact there is a limit to 'where' one can free speak. Ones own backyard is likely the best location but in public I think you will experience rejection of certain types of free speak. In an owned space such as a forum there are guidelines which are not at all restrictive but are designed to allow human minds to release their content in an organised and friendly manner.




The concept of "owned spaces having guidelines that are designed to allow human minds to release their content in an organised and friendly manner" sounds like one of those American Religious orders where the elder gets to bonk all the under age females because he is the chosen one and he gets to set the "friendly guidelines".


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 February 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> The concept of "owned spaces having guidelines that are designed to allow human minds to release their content in an organised and friendly manner" sounds like one of those American Religious orders where the elder gets to bonk all the under age females because he is the chosen one and he gets to set the "friendly guidelines".




Lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil
For thine is the kingdom .... the power .... and the glory
Forever and ever

Amen.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 February 2010)

Nulla ...... This thread was setup because of ppl getting into trouble or not using the "analysis" that was intended for the other XAO thread ... I personally got a spank because of it but have noticed the spanker that spanked me ALSO posted non correct analysis recently.. I did find that a bit cheeky but i held my tounge. 

 This thread is for banter and related convvo,s , the XAO thread is not ........ 

ASF has rules and guidlines which we as users have to respect which is fair enough .......

We got a chatroom for anything indepth and out of context anyways mate ........ go with the flow bro and enjoy using the place but within how they want the place run...

only my 3 bucks worth as a repeat offender


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> Lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil
> For thine is the kingdom .... the power .... and the glory
> Forever and ever
> 
> Amen.




Fantastic, this has to be the best reponse to one of my irreverent posts  ever. I award you one ticket to paradise with the usual entitlements to a minimum of 7 virgins (valid for 14 days).


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Nulla ...... This thread was setup because of ppl getting into trouble or not using the "analysis" that was intended for the other XAO thread ... I personally got a spank because of it but have noticed the spanker that spanked me ALSO posted non correct analysis recently.. I did find that a bit cheeky but i held my tounge.
> 
> This thread is for banter and related convvo,s , the XAO thread is not ........
> 
> ...




Thanks m8, after posting my opinion as to the origin of this thread I read back and realised the error of my ways (in context of this threads origins only, any other errors are denied until proven otherwise). The chatroom is unreliable lately as we keep getting logged out for no reason. Going with the flow and rolling with the punches is what I do, but I reserve the right to slip one in from time to time.


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Low volume was because of Chinese New Year. China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where most hedgies are in Asia, all had public hols.

Oh and Bangladesh, I believe that is the new hot bed of world finance.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

As at 8:03am the US markets finished up, the DOW +169.67 (+1.68%) at 10,268.81; and the NASDAQ +30.66 (+1.40%) at 2,214.19. This is consistant with the DAX and the FTSE which finished up 1.47% - 1.48%. 
It would be good if the XAO could rally the same amount today,  60 - 70 points would be good but given our recent history, I suspect there will be an early rally and then a fade. Hopefully we will still finish in front.


----------



## Broadway (17 February 2010)

Looks like the xao/spi went up 200 since that blow off bottom in oil on the 6th feb. Dow 10,000 didnt seem like much of a barrier.

Now I think oil may have topped. We'll see I guess.


----------



## tunrida (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



nulla nulla said:


> As at 8:03am the US markets finished up, the DOW +169.67 (+1.68%) at 10,268.81; and the NASDAQ +30.66 (+1.40%) at 2,214.19. This is consistant with the DAX and the FTSE which finished up 1.47% - 1.48%.
> It would be good if the XAO could rally the same amount today,  60 - 70 points would be good but given our recent history, *I suspect there will be an early rally and then a fade.* Hopefully we will still finish in front.




sounds like great trading conditions but most will just watch


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Boy she is going to be a hot open. Hard to see it doing anything other than a roll over.


----------



## skyQuake (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Boy she is going to be a hot open. Hard to see it doing anything other than a roll over.




Aus has been selling the open for a week now, wouldnt be surprised to see some squeezing after the intial fade attempt.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Boy she is going to be a hot open. Hard to see it doing anything other than a roll over.




Why?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Wooooooooo! Pretty exciting so far


----------



## sammy84 (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



skyQuake said:


> Aus has been selling the open for a week now, wouldnt be surprised to see some squeezing after the intial fade attempt.




I was thinking the same. Too many fades recently and too many people will be looking to make a quick buck today. Short squeeze could be potent today


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis/Banter/Confusion/*



Trembling Hand said:


> Boy she is going to be a hot open. Hard to see it doing anything other than a roll over.






ThingyMajiggy said:


> Why?




Well I have some analysis but don't know what thread to put it in so will just keep it to myself


----------



## sammy84 (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis/Banter/Confusion/*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well I have some analysis but don't know what thread to put it in so will just keep it to myself




Post it in both the XAO threads and let the mods decide


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis/Banter/Confusion/*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well I have some analysis but don't know what thread to put it in so will just keep it to myself




Phew lucky, because its wrong so far :


----------



## Joe Blow (17 February 2010)

Gents, the XAO Analysis thread is for TA of the XAO and responses to people's TA.

This thread was created to fill a need to for more general discussion.

By keeping them seperate, it allows the discussion in each thread to remain focussed.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis/Banter/Confusion/ & point the bone?*



Trembling Hand said:


> Well I have some analysis but don't know what thread to put it in so will just keep it to myself




Well I'm lost as to where i should post comments in respect of XAO analysis. My last comment was removed and transferred to the banter thread. Are we only supposed to post technical analysis comments in respect of individual stocks in the xao analysis thread?

I posted what i thought was a relevent comment in respect of the influence of the movement on the djia, nasdaq, ftse and dax which may be reflected in todays movement in the xao. As it turned out the xao moved closer to 2% versus the other markets 1.47% to 1.5% however my post ended up here. 

Maybe T/H has got it right. Maybe I should just keep my views to myself. 

Maybe only the select few are allowed to post what they like where they like and the rest of us should just shut up or nod agreement with them rather than engage in a true exchange of opinions and information.


----------



## drsmith (17 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis/Banter/Confusion/ & point the bone?*

Whereever it goes it's not something that's worth loosing sleep over.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (17 February 2010)

What's so hard to understand? 

XAO *Analysis*



XAO *Banter*

Charts, trendlines, targets etc = XAO *Analysis*

Having a whinge about which thread to post in...oh and random comments on XAO = XAO *Banter* :


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis/Banter/Confusion/ & point the bone?*



drsmith said:


> Whereever it goes it's not something that's worth *loosing* sleep over.




So we can all sleep *tight* now.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread (not analysis)*

For the second consecutive day the US markets closed up. The DOW added 40.43 (+0.39%) to close on 10,309.24 and the NASDAQ added 12.10 (+0.55%) to close on 2,226.29. The FTSE added 19.69 and the DAX added 56.22 (+1.01%). 

Yesterday the XAO increased by 2% as the reporting season gets underway and the initial results have exceeded analyst expectations. If this patern continues we should see further moderate gains today, though I expect there could be an element of profit taking acting like a handbrake.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 February 2010)

FWIW.

Today is the end of the bounce in my PERSONAL view and i am positioning accordingly .

I still hold various longs which are still within trading plan but the time has come yet again for a bit of hedgeing on my behalf .....

i could always be wrong .


----------



## Atomic (18 February 2010)

i running with the bulls , but who's defected to the other team(be it eather bears or bulls). and why is the question?

think any positive uptrend is welcome at this time i think maybe i hope


----------



## sammy84 (18 February 2010)

Will be too hard to make any informed decisions regarding the direction of the trend from today. US was range bound last night, our market hasn't moved much more than 45 points and is pretty much an inside day. Until I can see the volumes accompanying today and each stocks individual moves/closes it is only gambling to make a predicition based of today.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 February 2010)

sammy84 said:


> Will be too hard to make any informed decisions regarding the direction of the trend from today. US was range bound last night, our market hasn't moved much more than 45 points and is pretty much an inside day. Until I can see the volumes accompanying today and each stocks individual moves/closes *it is only gambling to make a predicition based of today*.





Maybe for you . What my charts/my take on the action are a probability play in MY view..... 

Happy to be wrong and already know how much i will be wrong .....

Hardly a gamble to ME .


----------



## sammy84 (18 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Maybe for you . What my charts/my take on the action are a probability play in MY view.....
> 
> Happy to be wrong and already know how much i will be wrong .....
> 
> Hardly a gamble to ME .




What has happened today that has made you bearish? What has happened today that gives a higher probability or a top than a consolidation?

I am actually curious


----------



## brty (18 February 2010)

> Originally Posted by *nunthewiser*
> FWIW.
> 
> Today is the end of the bounce in my PERSONAL view and i am positioning accordingly .




:iagree:

The only change I could make to the above statement is by changing 'positioning' to positioned.



> i could always be wrong .




always better than....



> uptrend is welcome at this time i think maybe i hope




brty


----------



## satanoperca (18 February 2010)

Nothing really new today, small broad based sell off due to some profit taking.

Volume low, expecting another retracement tomorrow after the Dow goes red tonight. 

Overall the mood seems stable to optimistic. See a retracement in the following days of maybe 100 points before a march back up in 4800-4900 range.

The end is not neigh at the moment, but see further downside to occur in coming months and 4500 to be retested in March-April.

The pressing issue is the weight of not the PIGS or PIIGS indebtedness but rather the overwhelming debt of the wolf in sheep's clothing, the great and only IOU's of A. 

Once reality sets in that the US has no way of repaying this debt or even servicing it, the tide wave of debt defaults  will then ripple throughout the global economy like dominos taking any country out that is already on a knifes edge.

Cheers

Double my number of post and I will finally be home


----------



## nulla nulla (18 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> The pressing issue is the weight of the overwhelming debt of the wolf in sheep's clothing, the great and only IOU's of A (USA?).
> 
> Once reality sets in that the US has no way of repaying this debt or even servicing it, the tide wave of debt defaults  will then ripple throughout the global economy like dominos taking any country out that is already on a knifes edge.
> 
> Cheers




On that cheerful note i'll start taking anti-depressants and get the missus to lock up all the knives.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 February 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> On that cheerful note i'll start taking anti-depressants and get the missus to lock up all the knives.




LOL she,ll be right mate plenty of time for panic later 


have a top weekend


----------



## cutz (18 February 2010)

Noice rally while it lasted,

Interesting how the Feb index settlement has occurred where that nice cluster of index puts is situated.

Now awaiting the next round of panic.


----------



## satanoperca (18 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> LOL she,ll be right mate plenty of time for panic later
> 
> 
> have a top weekend




Or use the force and short the market.

Cheers


----------



## cutz (18 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Or use the force and short the market.
> 
> Cheers




May the force be with you.


----------



## nunthewiser (18 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> Or use the force and short the market.
> 
> Cheers





 Already pointed out in chat where my cash gone too for now .......in amongst the recipies, porno,s arguments and other related chat

The force is strong in me 

Enjoy ya weekend


----------



## nulla nulla (18 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Already pointed out in chat where my cash gone too for now .......in amongst the recipies, porno,s arguments and other related chat
> 
> The force is strong in me
> 
> Enjoy ya weekend




Nah M8, thats just the bourban and amphetamines kicking in. Speak to you tomorrow. This force thing is really gaining momentum. But if anyone trys to tell me they are my father, they are in trouble.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> The force is strong in me




Didn't know that Bernanke was also a jedi knight and you were both channeling the force for your trades. 

:vader:


----------



## nulla nulla (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*

What a cr.p day. Just when you think it is safe to go back into the water the profit takers and ppl taking their money out for the weekend send the market into a spiral. Can't workout whether today was a buy opportunity or a day I should have sat on the sidelines. 
Now we get to see what surprises the media has for us over the week-end and where ever the dow, ftse, dax, nikkai and HS finish up before their weekend closes. Bring on Monday, I can hardly wait.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



nulla nulla said:


> What a cr.p day. Just when you think it is safe to go back into the water the profit takers and ppl taking their money out for the weekend send the market into a spiral.






I think you are a bit off on the reason for the red toady. You may wanna look into it.


----------



## satanoperca (19 February 2010)

US Fed increases IR's from 0.25 -0.75 just after their sharemarket closed sending the futures market into a spin, pushing our market down.

Possibly? :

Cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



Trembling Hand said:


> I think you are a bit off on the reason for the red toady. You may wanna look into it.




Yeah you're right. My comment was a 6:00 o'clock irrational outburst. Satan is probably closer to the truth about the US Federal Reserve moving to increase the official US interest rate by half of one percent after the close of their markets. This, combined with the comments attributed to Glenn Stevens of our Reserve Bank that Interest rates would likely go up here next time also, probably had a negative influence that picked up momentum in the afternoon.
What ever the reason, in my opinion, it was still a crap finish to the day. 

Whats a red toady anyway?


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



nulla nulla said:


> Yeah you're right. My comment was a 6:00 o'clock irrational outburst. Satan is probably closer to the truth about the US Federal Reserve moving to increase the official US interest rate by half of one percent after the close of their markets. This, combined with the comments attributed to Glenn Stevens of our Reserve Bank that Interest rates would likely go up here next time also, probably had a negative influence that picked up momentum in the afternoon.
> What ever the reason, in my opinion, it was still a crap finish to the day.



You guys would do yourself a HUGE favour and get your head outta the p!ss ant penny dreadfuls XAO stocks and learn about some inter-market analysis.

Stevens had no effect. It was the US discount rate, which is not their interest rate - diff thing, that smoked us, all futs as well as currencies. Then it was Japans & Korea's positive lead up after their open. They gapped down then went Kermit, along with the EUR bottoming and kicking up. BUT then the HSI opened and got smoked right out of the gate at 12:45 to 1:00. Everything else followed.

Thats the day. Bucket loads to be made just being aware of stuff thats out their.



nulla nulla said:


> Whats a red toady anyway?



Its opposite to a green Kermit. Highly accurate leading indicator used by sophistimacateded hedge funds.


----------



## white_goodman (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



Trembling Hand said:


> You guys would do yourself a HUGE favour and get your head outta the p!ss ant penny dreadfuls XAO stocks and learn about some inter-market analysis.
> 
> Stevens had no effect. It was the US discount rate, which is not their interest rate - diff thing, that smoked us, all futs as well as currencies. Then it was Japans & Korea's positive lead up after their open. They gapped down then went Kermit, along with the EUR bottoming and kicking up. BUT then the HSI opened and got smoked right out of the gate at 12:45 to 1:00. Everything else followed.
> 
> Thats the day. Bucket loads to be made just being aware of stuff thats out their.




listen to the man 100% correct, very fun day for all, quite a bit of commotion on the HSI when a few big orders were squaring off against each other mid arvo aswell


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



white_goodman said:


> quite a bit of commotion on the HSI when a few big orders were squaring off against each other mid arvo aswell




Did ya see that  never seen anything like it on Honkers! Had to check I wasn't looking at the ES. friggin insane!!


----------



## white_goodman (19 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



Trembling Hand said:


> Did ya see that  never seen anything like it on Honkers! Had to check I wasn't looking at the ES. friggin insane!!




yeh everyone in the room was going beserk and rushing over to peoples comps who trade HSI.

Algos got tangled up in each others net or something, who knows...???


----------



## satanoperca (20 February 2010)

My apologies for the wrong terminology, the Fed raised rates just not interest rates but the Official Discount Rate as T/H has pointed out.

What Does Discount Rate Mean?
1. The interest rate that an eligible depository institution is charged to borrow short-term funds directly from a Federal Reserve Bank. 

2. The interest rate used in determining the present value of future cash flows. 

It seemed to have little effect on the Dow last night which ended up slightly green.

Cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (20 February 2010)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - "Banter" not "Analysis"*



Trembling Hand said:


> You guys would do yourself a HUGE favour and get your head outta the p!ss ant penny dreadfuls XAO stocks and learn about some inter-market analysis.
> 
> Stevens had no effect. It was the US discount rate, which is not their interest rate - diff thing, that smoked us, all futs as well as currencies. Then it was Japans & Korea's positive lead up after their open. They gapped down then went Kermit, along with the EUR bottoming and kicking up. BUT then the HSI opened and got smoked right out of the gate at 12:45 to 1:00. Everything else followed.
> 
> ...




And I still managed to get my correction wrong. The US increased the rate at which the federal reserve lends money to banks in emergency, from 0.5% to 0.75%, an increase of 0.25%. The Asian markets reacted negatively to the news and then our market followed suite. 
I still consider that there was an element of the Friday sell off in the xao as people took their money out for the week end. It happens regularly on a Friday and is more noticable when the markets are skittish. Volumes being traded at present are still low in my opinion also.
And yes there is money to be made in this climate. As I stated in the chat site after the close of the auction, I finished the day ahead. $74.00


----------



## nulla nulla (20 February 2010)

satanoperca said:


> My apologies for the wrong terminology, the Fed raised rates just not interest rates but the Official Discount Rate as T/H has pointed out.
> 
> What Does Discount Rate Mean?
> 1. The interest rate that an eligible depository institution is charged to borrow short-term funds directly from a Federal Reserve Bank.
> ...




Bold call with almost an hour to go, hoever a good one as it turns out. 
The DOW finished up +9.45 (+0.09%) at 10,402.35 points and the NASDAQ closed up +2.16 (+0.10%) at 2,243.87 points. This makes 4 days straight gains by the dow and it appears the recent drop was a correction and not the start of the doomsday bear run everyone is expecting (not just yet anyway). 
You would be forgiven for expecting a reasonable bounce on Monday in respect of some of the stocks that were sold down in the over-reaction yesterday.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 February 2010)

This is an extract from Colin Woods (Incrediblecharts) daily email of 22 February 2010:

"The correction appears over, with the Dow and other major markets recovering above recent highs. Long-term momentum, however, is slowing and we are unlikely to see a repeat of the heady gains from 2009. Short- and medium-term trading systems are likely to out-perform long term traders for the foreseeable future ”” until the global financial system returns to a sound footing, with no artificial support from central banks. It may be some time before we witness another bull market."

I am not sure whether he is referring to the correction of the global financial plunge which bottomed in March 2009 and now appears to have corrected, or whether he means the recent 10% correction is over.


----------



## nulla nulla (27 February 2010)

Australia ASX All Ords *+36.20 *+0.78% 4,651.10 2/26 12:00am 
 Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -3.40 -0.08% 4,138.70 2/26 12:00am 
 Hong Kong Hang Seng *+209.13 *+1.03% 20,608.70 2/26 12:00am 
 Japan Nikkei 225 *+24.07 *+0.24% 10,126.03 2/26 12:00am 

 Belgium Bel 20 +34.22 +1.38% 2,514.87 2/26 6:08pm 
 Europe DJ Stoxx +25.65 +1.05% 2,470.18 2/26 5:50pm 
 Europe Euronext 100 +10.28 +1.60% 651.97 2/26 6:08pm 
 Europe Euronext 150 +15.41 +1.13% 1,380.03 2/26 6:08pm 
 France CAC +68.03 +1.87% 3,708.80 2/26 6:13pm 
 France SBF 80 +70.63 +1.53% 4,685.83 2/26 6:07pm 
 France SBF 120 +48.71 +1.82% 2,721.50 2/26 6:08pm 
 Germany *DAX +66.13 *+1.20% 5,598.46 2/26 5:45pm 
 Germany MDAX +146.44 +2.02% 7,393.26 2/26 5:45pm 
 Germany TECDAX +10.51 +1.35% 788.13 2/26 5:45pm 
 Netherlands AEX +2.89 +0.92% 317.74 2/26 6:08pm 
 Norway OSE Industry +4.47 +0.27% 177.19 2/26 5:28pm 
 Sweden OMX -3.80 -0.40% 940.51 2/25 12:00am 
 Sweden OMSX All Share -1.76 -0.59% 297.37 2/25 12:00am 
 UK *FTSE 100 +76.30 *+1.45% 5,354.52 2/26 10:16pm 
 UK FTSE All Shares +38.19 +1.42% 2,736.80 2/26 10:16pm 
 UK FTSE Eurotop +21.97 +1.03% 2,146.66 2/26 10:16pm 
 UK FTSE Techmark +20.51 +1.17% 1,774.27 2/26 10:16pm 

*Canada TSE 300 -1.81 *-0.02% 11,629.63 2/26 4:30pm 
 Canada CDNX +13.25 +0.87% 1,531.19 2/26 4:30pm 
 Canada S&P/TSX 60 -1.01 -0.15% 680.76 2/26 4:30pm 

Monday should prove interesting. If we led the world down on Thursday, our partial recovery on Friday also appears to have led the world. It seems the world markets might consider that the Greek economy will not have the negative impact first feared. Perhaps on Monday we will move in accordance with the stengths and weaknesses of our own reporting season.


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## MRC & Co (1 March 2010)

Isn't the discount rate the same as official 'interest rate' decisions?

It's basically just the over-night money market rate used in REPOs to control liquidity in the system.  The rest of the rates are priced off the yield curve or by renegade banks.  

That's what I remember learning........may have to refresh my memory.


----------



## nunthewiser (8 March 2010)

Yawns...............

Time to hedge them longs with a few short entrys again in my not so humble opinion ...........

Game on again but at least a nice low % loss entry on stopout points .........

I could always be wrong i spose .


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 March 2010)

Interesting. If She rolls over here then we have a lower high. That's of course if it first doesn't push higher or doesn't just flop around for a week or two.

Personally think it could push higher here without much effort. In fact I think it needs to or it actually could start looking quite sick internally, in terms of diverging sectors, non participation, LH kinda way.


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## nunthewiser (8 March 2010)

Cheers TH.

I been known to be wrong by a few days on numerous occasions in here 

This is just the zone i am currently  intrested in from here to previous top .

I only have my money where my mouth is currently on one finance position still waiting on entrys on other vehicles as they present themselves.

Just bantering along really..........


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## Broadway (8 March 2010)

In early December '09 we got good US jobs data and December was an up month.
In early January '10 we got bad US jobs data and January was a down month.
In early February we got good US jobs data and February was an up month.

But last Friday's numbers were a little undecided to me. 9.7 was unchanged. Less jobs lost but nothing to really get excited about. Initially the market reacted up but I thought the pros shorted into that rally, and hence the spi and ES dropped a little today.

I guess I'll look at US etf ,stock and commodity volumes over the next few days to see if the pros set up for an up or down March. I thought I saw some 'top-like' volumes in currencies but we are getting close to rollover which screws up volumes.


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## Whiskers (8 March 2010)

I'm with you broadway, the news is getting better but nothing for most (the mob) to get too excited about just yet. 

But my sometimes dubious EW count says we won't go higher this time but reverse for a minor wave c to somewhere close to the last low. 

I'll be taking most of my free carried profits, maybe tomorrow... just in case I'm wrong and the bears are right and a major C is underway.

If I'm right I'll buy back at lower prices.


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## nunthewiser (8 March 2010)

Whiskers said:


> I'll be taking most of my free carried profits, maybe tomorrow... just in case I'm wrong and the bears are right and a major C is underway.
> 
> *If I'm right I'll buy back at lower prices*.




And if your wrong ? 

No trailing stops?

I may be looking at a bearish scenario shortly but im also a realist in the fact i could be wrong and not selling my in profit longs until they dictate to me to bail out via my trailing stops ( which may or may not be right , but they are MY levels of concern if hit).......

No hedging of positions? just a straight out sell it all ?


----------



## nunthewiser (9 March 2010)

Sorry whiskers if my post came accross as agressive .

Nothing wrong with taking the cash off the table at anytime one wants or thinks thats the time to do it ..

Your cash after all .

Just rather surprised that someone that uses tech analysis for there trading is going down that path when no actual major technical reasons are actually showing for a complete selloff of ones holdings as yet .

each to there own


----------



## Whiskers (9 March 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> And if your wrong ?
> 
> No trailing stops?
> 
> ...




I didn't take offence nun... just I am confident we will correct back further before we go higher and mainly use the opportunity to change the bias of my stratergy and portfolio if things pan out as I expect.

Not a big fan of hedging. I just watch closely and mostly sell on a combination of signals when I think they've about done their run... as in top picking or ocassionally didn't fire as I thought they would.

All I'm holding atm is some medium and small miners and explorers.

I've got a nice profit out of the particular sector and stocks and coming to an opinion that when this current wave of corrections including base metal prices is over, assuming it's only a minor correction another sector is undervalued and is poised showing signs of out performing the pack, like that famous EW expression, a good third wave impulse, 

So I may put some back into same stocks, spread portfolio into potential undervalued sector stocks or stay mostly cash if big wave C eventuates. I may short currency or gold as the case may be, but not likely to short larger stocks mainly because I haven't paid them much attention lately. I've been mainly focused on and got better returns on some of the medium and smaller ones that got a real hammering on the way down since I like bottom picking too.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 March 2010)

With thanks to Colin Twiggs of Incredible charts, the following chart puts the building "sovereign debt" situation in perspective. At the moment global markets are literaly stumbling from one crisis to another while trying to convince themselves everything is getting better. As Mr Twiggs states "You can't borrow your way out of a financial crisis".

The chart below compares projected 2010 deficits to net public debt, both expressed as a percentage of GDP. Nations below the diagonal line risk falling into financial distress. The diagonal represents two risk factors as a single measure: (1) the larger your public debt, the more precarious your position, and (2) the greater your current deficit (below zero) the faster your financial position will deteriorate. The US, for example, with net debt below 60 percent is in the same risk category as Italy, because it is running larger deficits. Greece and Japan are obviously in the worst position, but the UK and Ireland*, with deficits greater than 10 percent, risk joining them within the next five years. If you invest in bonds, as PIMCO does, countries above the diagonal line would offer the least risk of default or inflation. 
The further a country is below the diagonal, the closer it is to "junk bond" status.


----------



## nunthewiser (10 March 2010)

Intresting stuff Nulla ......... poor ole Norway sitting all safe annd sound on its lonesome 

FWIW i have entered another 3 short positions 1 more financial and 2 resources . ALL small positions , no sheep stations involved ..

I could be wrong , often am.

I still hold longs and have no reason to exit as yet.


----------



## gooner (10 March 2010)

nunthewiser said:


> Intresting stuff Nulla ......... poor ole Norway sitting all safe annd sound on its lonesome




The wonder of sitting on gigalitres of crude oil. Another resource economy that seems to be doing OK? Australia


----------



## chops_a_must (10 March 2010)

I think we'll head towards about 5200 and pulling back into the low 4000s, even high 3000s at the end of the year.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 March 2010)

I was surprised at how close Germany is to being on the wrong side of the indicator. They seem to trumpet how the other Euro members should be managing their economies and they are borderline themselves.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 March 2010)

Thanks for the links Satanoperca. I have loaded them up here so anyone else interested can get some perspective of how other traders are reviewing the live data/information that influences trading/entry/exit points.


----------



## Little_Luka14 (11 March 2010)

Does anyone have experience trading the Garltley 222 pattern. Seems like a good example at the moment with the XA downleg from the recent high and a good even ABCD pattern following up. Sorry my image is so sketchy....any tips?

Some of the resorce blue chips like BHP, WPL and RIO are matching up very strongly too....(although its nothing revolutionary for blue chips and index to mirror each other). Looks like a clear sell if this pattern carries out...unfortunately. 

I can also see a head and shoulders pattern about to complete, neckline at 4520, second shoulder about to complete matching up with our october high. Any thoughts......?

I dont usually like to try and pick tops/bottoms but these two patterns stood out to me.


----------



## Kryzz (11 March 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Thanks for the links Satanoperca. I have loaded them up here so anyone else interested can get some perspective of how other traders are reviewing the live data/information that influences trading/entry/exit points.




Is that webiress nulla? What broker too if u dont mind me askin?

Cheers


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## nulla nulla (11 March 2010)

Kryzz said:


> Is that webiress nulla? What broker too if u dont mind me askin?
> 
> Cheers




You would need to ask "satanoperca". It is "Iress" based but not sure if it is the comsecIress version or one of the other platforms. I was trying to determine how to set up an interday (1 minute) chart with the trade volumes and satanoperca kindly provided some samples. 
Unfortunately it looks like he uses a full screen on high resolution, where-as I combine my interday chart with a weekly chart, depth screen, trading analysis and watch list.


----------



## donkeykong (16 March 2010)

ASX slipped under the 4800 mark again today, hopefully this is the start of a clear movement rather than the narrow ranging which has been happening over the past week.


----------



## MRC & Co (18 March 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> With thanks to Colin Twiggs of Incredible charts, the following chart puts the building "sovereign debt" situation in perspective. At the moment global markets are literaly stumbling from one crisis to another while trying to convince themselves everything is getting better. As Mr Twiggs states "You can't borrow your way out of a financial crisis".
> 
> The chart below compares projected 2010 deficits to net public debt, both expressed as a percentage of GDP. Nations below the diagonal line risk falling into financial distress. The diagonal represents two risk factors as a single measure: (1) the larger your public debt, the more precarious your position, and (2) the greater your current deficit (below zero) the faster your financial position will deteriorate. The US, for example, with net debt below 60 percent is in the same risk category as Italy, because it is running larger deficits. Greece and Japan are obviously in the worst position, but the UK and Ireland*, with deficits greater than 10 percent, risk joining them within the next five years. If you invest in bonds, as PIMCO does, countries above the diagonal line would offer the least risk of default or inflation.
> The further a country is below the diagonal, the closer it is to "junk bond" status.




Interesting post Nulla Nulla.  Thx.

But what about private debt?  Japan for example, is in a much better situation than most other nations.


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## white_goodman (21 March 2010)

MRC & Co said:


> Interesting post Nulla Nulla.  Thx.
> 
> But what about private debt?  Japan for example, is in a much better situation than most other nations.




essentially borrowed the debt from themselves


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## Naked shorts (21 March 2010)

white_goodman said:


> essentially borrowed the debt from themselves




yaaa
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/08/167701/japans-brewing-fiasco/


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## MRC & Co (22 March 2010)

white_goodman said:


> essentially borrowed the debt from themselves




Exactly, which is where that chart does not provide a good example of 'soverign risk'.


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (22 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree, for a little while at least, then I think the next leg will be to 5000...


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## BNECBD_DayTrader (22 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

I agree, for a little while at least, then I think the next leg will be to 5000 ...

Will be interesting to see what the David Jones does tonite ...


----------



## nunthewiser (22 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Will be interesting to see what the David Jones does tonite ...





They having a sale ?


----------



## BNECBD_DayTrader (22 March 2010)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

or is that the Down Jones..?


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## sammy84 (24 March 2010)

Most US indices, FTSE are at 52 week highs. XAO are 100pts + away from that and have managed to put on a megre .5% gain today. Will we play catch up at some point? Seems to be very little conviction in the XAO at the moment.

The dividend run up has started already in the banks however. At least this sector seems to be going through an impulsive trend.


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## nulla nulla (27 March 2010)

The djia seems determined to crash through 11,000 points. The recent run up on moderate volumes has been unable to break through this resistance level but the market, at this stage, seems to be reluctant to fall away. 
It appears that as soon as there is a whisper of further slowing of unemployment, combined with news of increased consumer spending (confidence) and an increase in homebuying/building, the djia may get the lift in volumes to surge through the 11,000 mark. 

Whether it can sustain that level and go higher is another story.


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## nulla nulla (2 April 2010)

Another week gone and the DJIA closed at *10,927.07*, +0.65%, +70.44 for the day and the Nasdaq closed on *2,402.58*, +4.62 ,+0%. The djia appears determined to reach the 11,000 mark but whether it can break through and can keep going is yet to be seen.


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## BNECBD_DayTrader (6 April 2010)

The djia appears determined to reach the 11 said:
			
		

> Yes, that is correct.


----------



## cutz (6 April 2010)

BNECBD_DayTrader said:


> Yes, that is correct.




Considering it's had a pretty good run another flogging wouldn't be out of line.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 April 2010)

With commods like Oil,



And indexes in Asia like Korea,



And risk Currencies like AUDJPY,



All breaking out I wouldn't be to keen on shorting here. Especially if we can hold these levels this week. That will set up for a run higher through the rest of April or at least to push offside a good amount of those that have been fighting this rally.

The only thing that looks weak here is China. Which could put in another lower high on any rollover but the rest will likely offer a good long entry on a bit of consolidation.


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## Donga (6 April 2010)

cutz said:


> Considering it's had a pretty good run another flogging wouldn't be out of line.




Can't see it - too much good data out there. Expect many of those who have been hanging back will hop on board now. Bull run to reassert through to 5200-5300 by mid year before we pause again. Data to beat fears.


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## nulla nulla (6 April 2010)

Another 46.48 lift in the djia to 10973.55. Inching ever closer to 11,000. What awaits us tonight? (And the Nasdaq did well also).


----------



## robusta (6 April 2010)

Donga said:


> Can't see it - too much good data out there. Expect many of those who have been hanging back will hop on board now. Bull run to reassert through to 5200-5300 by mid year before we pause again. Data to beat fears.



Hope you are right. It seems like good news all over.
I think China is headed towards a bubble but will it pop next week or in the next 2 years?


----------



## nulla nulla (23 April 2010)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks turned higher Thursday as upbeat housing data led to a rally in the shares of home builders and with technology rebounding from earlier weakness ahead of results from online retailer Amazon.com Inc. and software giant Microsoft Corp. 

"It has paid to buy these pullbacks, since the market has done pretty well," Kevin Kruszenski, national director of equity trading at KeyBanc Capital Markets, said of the stock market performance, which as of Tuesday's close had the S&P 500 Index up more than 78% from its March 2009 low and ahead 8% so far this year. 

The market has climbed in a near-straight line up since early February, prompting even the most bullish of observers to say stocks had gotten ahead of themselves and a correction is in order. 

After falling more than 100 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 11,135, +9.68, +0.09%) finished up 9.37 points, or 0.1%, at 11,134.29. It was the fourth straight session of gains for the blue-chip average.

Cut and pasted (with thanks) from Wall Street Journal - Market Watch.


----------



## The Owls (29 April 2010)

*All Ordinaries and ASX*

As a watcher of the ALL ORDINARIES [XAO] I notice that just before 11.00 today it wasn't travelling too bad then something must have happened, an announcement or something else. Any clues.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (29 April 2010)

*Re: All Ordinaries and ASX*

From Yahoo Finance:

The top banks all fell after Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ.ax) warned of funding pressures and the risk of stress on banks from Europe's debt woes.

May relate to this ?? Nab took a big hit around that time. 

Agree there's a definite break in the graph, not sure of the cause though.


----------



## baby_swallow (29 April 2010)

*Re: All Ordinaries and ASX*



The Owls said:


> As a watcher of the ALL ORDINARIES [XAO] I notice that just before 11.00 today it wasn't travelling too bad then something must have happened, an announcement or something else. Any clues.




I think the banks decided to follow the miners when ANZ failed to impress the investors.
I suggest you also monitor XJO (more important than XAO imo), also the XFJ and XMM.


----------



## cutz (2 May 2010)

With this silly super tax that has been slapped on the miners as part of the tax re-election scheme combined with the euro crises, this week is looking pretty shaky, wouldn't suprise me to see 4600 by Friday.

Anyone else got the jitters ?


----------



## nulla nulla (3 May 2010)

The European Union and the IMF have handed Greece the bailout package and it is now up to Greece to make it work. This was completed over the wekend after the various markets closed down on fears the bailout package wasn't going to eventuate. Those markets will probably rebound, somewhat, when they open later tonight. 

Now they will need to liaise with Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain. Then when they get that lot on the road to recovery they might be able to look at Britian. lol

No doubt the xao will dip today, particularly recources. How far it goes will be interesting to see.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 May 2010)

An explanation of the downward spike on the djia on Thursday night from CNN Money.com. The fall on the djia and nasdaq continued last night and i suspect the xao will continue below the 4500 support levels on Monday. At what point does this become more than a correction?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After one of the most wild days on Wall Street, Nasdaq canceled trades of 296 stocks whose prices fluctuated the most.

At around 2:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, trades of a number of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange were slowed for about a minute due to excessive volatility. During that short time, those stocks were opened up to electronic markets like the Nasdaq.

That's when at least 296 stock prices saw enormous price changes. Nasdaq has said it will cancel all trades that were executed between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. ET, in which the stock price traded more than than 60% off of the stock's price at 2:40 p.m. (See the 296 stocks for a list of the stocks with canceled trades.)

Nasdaq coordinated the cancellations with other U.S. stock exchanges, and said the decision could not be appealed. 

Around the same time that many stocks began to trade at strange prices, nearly every stock on the market began to rapidly sell off. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been down about 400 points just before 2:45 p.m., plunged nearly 1,000 points in a matter of minutes.

It is still unknown who -- or what -- exactly triggered the massive sell-off and why a number of stocks that were trading at $40 or $50 a share fell momentarily to just a penny. 

Many believe that the glitch was triggered by a series of events that began when the NYSE slowed down trading of a number of stocks, including Procter & Gamble. 

Shares of P&G fell 10% at around 2:45 p.m. Thursday, at which point the stock hit what's known as a "circuit breaker." The stock stopped trading on the NYSE for 80 seconds, and trades opened up on a number of competitors' electronic exchanges.

But the circuit breaker mechanism that was designed to cool traders' heads had the opposite effect: The slowed trading occurred at a time that investors were growing increasingly worried about Greece's debt issues and other economic factors. The Dow, which was already down about 200 points at the time, quickly dropped about another 200 points in the 15 minutes between 2:30 p.m. and 2:45 p.m.

"The problem is that when [the NYSE] slowed down, it effectively took their traders out of the market at a time when everyone else wanted to sell," said James Angel, a professor of finance at Georgetown University. 

In other words, when the NYSE paused its trading, the off-exchange computers found no bids, or offers to buy. The computers, which were looking for the best bid, were tripped up to believe the best bid was $0. The high-speed trading computers are designed to add a penny to each trade to make a commission on every deal, so the computers placed bets at a penny higher, or 1 cent. 

"Sell orders became desperate and went straight to their competitors' exchanges, which weren't slowed down," said Angel. "Since there were no other buyers, some computers had entered orders at a penny, so some stocks traded all the way down."

Duncan Niederauer, chief executive of NYSE Euronext similarly told CNNMoney on Thursday that stocks are very thinly traded in such situations, which can lead to wild volatility. Even though many of the trades never actually went through, even an unclaimed buy or sell order could have brought the stocks' prices down to a penny.

Seeing stocks at such a low level triggered a momentary panic.

Accenture (ACN) fell from $40.13 at 2:45 p.m. all the way to just 1 cent before quickly rising back to $39.57.

Sam Adams maker Boston Beer Co. (SAM) also fell to a penny before recovering to $55.82.

Oxford Industries (OXM) tanked to $1.34 before soaring back to $19.51 a minute later.

But some other wild trades were not canceled by Nasdaq. For instance, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) traded down 22% to $199.25 before recovering, but those trades were upheld.

Most notably, Nasdaq did not cancel trades of Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) or 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), which momentarily fell 37% and 22%, respectively. 

Both are components of the Dow, and their combined drop in price at around 2:45 contributed a loss 315 points to the Dow index. The Dow fell nearly 1,000 points before storming back to finish the day down 348 points.


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## sammy84 (10 May 2010)

S&P futures up 4.25% currently. If that holds until the open we could see one really big short squeeze tonight. Volumes have been very large the last few days, there would be a lot of shorters to squeeze.


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## nulla nulla (10 May 2010)

XAO up 116, I think it is safe to say that today they got squeezed. If Europe and the USA rebound tonight it would be reasonable to expect that tomorrow they will pop.


----------



## skyQuake (10 May 2010)

Already a fair bit of squeezing today and Fri, imo new shorts gonna enter tomorrow. Gap up and fade probably. (assuming the US squeezes up tonite)


----------



## drsmith (11 May 2010)

After a frisky pussy yesterday and a 4% hike in the DJIA last night, there's not much "meow" in the cat today.

It kind of reminds me of what happened in the following two days after the week global markets crashed in October 2008.


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## skyQuake (11 May 2010)

drsmith said:


> After a frisky pussy yesterday and a 4% hike in the DJIA last night, there's not much "meow" in the cat today.
> 
> It kind of reminds me of what happened in the following two days after the week global markets crashed in October 2008.




We've had 2 solid days of intra-rallies. Everyone was just looking for any excuse to sell. Once the cpi figures came out it was quite vicious.
Could easily continue tomorrow if dow has a crap nite.


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## insanedragons (14 May 2010)

Goddamn the manga and anime for Case Closed are both ongoing. But the Berserk manga is even more ongoing for at least 19 years.... When are they both going to end?


----------



## nulla nulla (18 May 2010)

Straight from Colin Twiggs of Incredible Charts:

"Demand for commodities is so far unaffected, with the Baltic Dry Index breaking medium-term resistance at 3600 to signal a fresh advance. Rising demand for dry bulk shipping — primarily iron ore and coal — is likely to be short-lived considering the Chinese down-turn. Reversal below 2900 would warn of a primary down-trend (if confirmed by the Baltic Panamax Index) — and a bear market for resources stocks".


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## sammy84 (21 May 2010)

Todays price action should pretty much invalidate any bullish divergence which was present the last few days. Still the question needs to be asked; is anyone buying today? Are we still catching falling knives? 

I won't be buying the aussie session, but if we can show any signs of strength towards the close I might then start scanning for some US setups tonight. 

:bbat:


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 May 2010)

sammy84 said:


> Todays price action should pretty much invalidate any bullish divergence which was present the last few days.




Not for some it will probably confirm it by the time its over.

An example (without todays data),


----------



## sammy84 (21 May 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Not for some it will probably confirm it by the time its over.
> 
> An example (without todays data),




Agreed. I was being overly bearish and making that statement on the assumption that those morning levels would hold. 

Still not sure whether this is a buy, so much volatility(which can be good from here on a short term basis) in the market. The US staged a pretty good intraday comeback a few days ago, bullish divergence was present, and look how that ended. 

It will be interesting to see whether people are going to be wanting to hold over the weekend.

I take it you're short term bullish at these level TH?


----------



## nulla nulla (13 June 2010)

We seem to have turned bearish in the latter part of May and early part of June. The last two days of last week offered some hope that stability was returning. However it was reported in the news-papers over the weekend, that a lot of Australia's recovery in the sharemarket on Friday was due to the closure of short positions by large hedge funds, taking their money out for the long weekend. 
The hedge funds not willing to risk the effect that a rebound internationaly might have on the Australian market on Tuesday.


----------



## Logique (14 June 2010)

Link:  http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...stic-ahead-of-eu-imf-visit-20100614-y9c3.html

*Greece optimistic ahead of EU, IMF visit* DIDIER KUNZ 
*June 14, 2010* - 1:39PM

Greek politicians were optimistic ahead of a visit Monday by experts from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to check the government's progress implementing its tough austerity plan.

*Early signs suggested that the controversial measures, which have provoked violent street protests and a series of strikes, were bearing fruit*.

According to official figures, the overall government deficit in the January-to-May period came to* 8.973 billion euros (10.931 billion US dollars) compared to 14.655 billion euros over the same period in 2009.*

For Finance Minister Georges Papaconstantinou, these latest figures showed that the government's economic recovery plan was not just on the right track but *ahead of schedule*.
..............
*The efforts of the Athens administration have already been acknowledged abroad.

Handelsblatt, the respected German economic newspaper compared Greece's efforts favourably with the Germany's austerity plan, in an editorial last Wednesday.*

*"Europeans can now learn from Greece, rather than Germany, how to consolidate a budget," the paper said.*

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank also praised the Greek austerity programme in a speech in Vienna Thursday.

"It is based on prudent macroeconomic assumptions... It has the potential to correct long-standing flaws, because it entails a very comprehensive structural reform package," he said.

*"We consider that the Greek programme has the appropriate features to succeed," he added.*

At the same conference, Greek Prime Minister Georges Papandreou declared: *"Today is the first time when I can look to the future with optimism."*

"We have taken difficult decisions, tough but necessary decisions. And we are now witnessing the first signs that we are turning the corner," he added.
.......................


----------



## satanoperca (14 June 2010)

First chapter in the GFC - Lehman Brothers goes broke
Second Chapter - a country defaults on sovereign debt and all hell breaks loose in the world markets
or 
Black Swan events occurs. Eg BP well is imploded which causes the crude to flow out at 1,000,000 barrels a day causing the largest and most significant environmental disaster the world has ever seen. Or one of the Koreas gets jack of the current situation and nukes the other. 

Whichever the case, the current world economic system is running on a knife edge and sooner or later it will fall and lots of people will get sliced.

As for the XAO, a run up to 4650-4750 based on bullish optimism (got to love that what ever it is) or pull in the last suckers before it starts the next major leg down.

Cheers


----------



## Julia (14 June 2010)

Logique said:


> At the same conference, Greek Prime Minister Georges Papandreou declared: *"Today is the first time when I can look to the future with optimism."*
> 
> "We have taken difficult decisions, tough but necessary decisions.



Goodness, Mr Papandreou must have been listening to our very own Dear Leader who is constantly "taking difficult decisions, tough but necessary decisions".


----------



## wayneL (14 June 2010)

At last Australia is exporting her culture...

Ahhhh she'll be right mate, she'll be apples.


----------



## satanoperca (14 June 2010)

wayneL said:


> At last Australia is exporting her culture...
> 
> Ahhhh she'll be right mate, she'll be apples.




But I like apples.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 June 2010)

Colin Twiggs: "A number of major markets, including the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite, have indicated the start of a primary down-trend, but there are now signs of a widespread resurgence, with bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) warning of a bear trap".


----------



## satanoperca (15 June 2010)

> THE powerful Bank for International Settlements has judged that the European sovereign debt crisis is shaping up as a repeat of the US subprime mortgage debt meltdown.




Surely this will have an impact on our XAO just like the subprime did.

I'm amazed with all the knowledge and technology in this world that the world financial system is in such a weak and fragile state.

Also the so called discover of a $trillion minerals find in Afganistan is a development worth watching. Starting to make sense why the US are still there, not for the benefit of the people of the land but for their own greed.

Cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (21 July 2010)

Last nights action on the djia was consistantly positive throughout the trading day. I don't know what the volumes were like. Hopefully we can have another positive day on the xao in the abscence of any negative news from off-shore.


----------



## professor_frink (21 July 2010)

About average volume nulla nulla


----------



## nulla nulla (21 July 2010)

We need a break out above the current resistance levels or risk falling back to lower support levels.



In the abscence of increased confidence and increased volumes, in my opinion we are at risk of another correction.


----------



## nunthewiser (21 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> We need a break out above the current resistance levels or risk falling back to lower support levels.
> View attachment 38002
> 
> 
> In the abscence of increased confidence and increased volumes, in my opinion we are at risk of another correction.





Personally think we cactus from here for a lil while and currently positioned with that bias.

i could be wrong and belt my stops fairly quickly.

and gday Nulla


----------



## nulla nulla (21 July 2010)

G'day gero. 
Your abscence from chat is noticable. I hope your building project is going well. 
Like you I think we will see another correction. But it may be delayed while the market bounces through the reporting season. 
Once that is out of the way, it will be back to the reality of sovereign debt problems overhanging the market.


----------



## nunthewiser (21 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> G'day gero.
> Your abscence from chat is noticable. I hope your building project is going well.
> Like you I think we will see another correction. But it may be delayed while the market bounces through the reporting season.
> Once that is out of the way, it will be back to the reality of sovereign debt problems overhanging the market.





Hey Nulla,

will try and get back into the chatroom sometime soon as miss the banter with you guys whilst trading......... been flatout m8...  building dips and jumps and allsorts of thankless goodies for the young bloke 

My opinion is merely based on a technical opinion but yes theres many fundamental factors swinging its hips now .


----------



## nulla nulla (22 July 2010)

you would normally expect people in important government posts to be better prepared to answer questions on what actions their department is taking and what the objectives of that action is. Things were traveling fairly flat until Bernake opened his mouth.
View attachment djia 22-07-10.bmp

If Bernake can't run his department with a hands on and infomed style of management they should flick him for someone that can.


----------



## oztrades (23 August 2010)

First in a thread that looks at indices related to aussie market. Now compare this to other global indices and Im seeing the same patterns except for japan. The intersection wil come in beginning november approx in time for mid-term US Elections. However it will be thru the sept/oct period normally reserved for the bearish to take advantage based on all the good news has come out in profit reporting so lets percieve its NOT going to get better.


----------



## Moneybags (24 August 2010)

oztrades said:


> First in a thread that looks at indices related to aussie market. Now compare this to other global indices and Im seeing the same patterns except for japan. The intersection wil come in beginning november approx in time for mid-term US Elections. However it will be thru the sept/oct period normally reserved for the bearish to take advantage based on all the good news has come out in profit reporting so lets percieve its NOT going to get better.




That looks like a head & shoulders pattern on the end there.....I notice WBC has the same pattern as does the DJIA.

Cheers

MB


----------



## oztrades (24 August 2010)

Moneybags said:


> That looks like a head & shoulders pattern on the end there.....I notice WBC has the same pattern as does the DJIA.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> MB




Tazwegian head & shoulders? enough break in the pattern to confuse us mere mortals.
Cheers


----------



## oztrades (24 August 2010)

Moneybags said:


> That looks like a head & shoulders pattern on the end there.....I notice WBC has the same pattern as does the DJIA.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> MB




And yet FMG shows an ascending triangle... funny how WBC is the only bank showing the heads and shoulder. You know something we dont?


Cheers


----------



## nulla nulla (24 August 2010)

I see a downward channel with little likelihood of there being an upward breakout in the immediate future. I could be wrong, however I will be proceeding with caution.


----------



## oztrades (26 August 2010)

The dow isn't showing a heads a shoulders on my charts.



But do your own research... & remember the baby boomers.


----------



## nulla nulla (27 August 2010)

The djia broke below 10,000 overnight. This will probably have some negative impact today on the xao. Hopefully some of the positive reports comming through can help offset the negativity of the djia.


----------



## Synergy (27 August 2010)

Just for a full range of DJIA charting views...

I prefer to place trendlines where they fall.


----------



## oztrades (27 August 2010)

Baby Boomers been stopped out looking for creative market sentiment to get back into the market?
1. Reporting Season nearly finished.
2. Hysteria over Sept/Oct period.
3. Caretaker Government.


----------



## Logique (8 September 2010)

Not being partisan, just some fiscal background that all investors need to factor in to their decisions. My bolds.



> http://noir.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
> *Australia Minority Government a Risk to Equities, Says JPMorgan *
> By Shani Raja
> 
> ...


----------



## nulla nulla (8 September 2010)

Things change quickly in a matter of days. Today the brakes were on following the disappointing performance of the djia overnight and reversal on todays nikkei and hang seng. 
Mining and banks both dragged the market down. The sooner the government gives some structure on the proposed mining tax the better.


----------



## sammy84 (25 October 2010)

Love a good short squeeze.


----------



## starman45 (16 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

There's strong support @ 4860.
Have a nice weekend!


----------



## starman45 (17 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today the index is carried on the support that I highlighted in my previous post.
There was a small rebound.
We'll see....


----------



## starman45 (18 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today good green close above 4900, after the good work done by the support yesterday.


----------



## starman45 (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Today the index is much closer to the resistance 4949ish


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Down 45 tomorrow?


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Down 45 tomorrow?




Brilliant


----------



## satanoperca (19 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



Gringotts Bank said:


> Down 45 tomorrow?




Did you just a pick a number out of the air, can you provide some analysis as to why.

Cheers


----------



## tinhat (20 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

We are not going to have confirmation of the current move up until volume returns.


----------



## tech/a (20 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



tinhat said:


> We are not going to have confirmation of the current move up until volume returns.




Why?

A return of volume is likely to herald a return of supply going into the market.

Not good!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Hey santa, I use intuition. 

Whenever I mention anything to do with knowing stuff in a non-scientific way, I get attacked from all angles.  So I'm not going to explain how or why.

I've asked for a psych thread/forum to be opened but I get no answer.


----------



## sammy84 (20 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*

Bit of divergence is the US and sharp down move overnight. Russell 2000 got killed. Beginning of a correction?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 January 2011)

Brilliant is right.  Though this doesn't quite compare to my call on SDL (which you can find on the XAO analysis thread).  You're learning tech/a.


----------



## tech/a (20 January 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Brilliant is right.  Though this doesn't quite compare to my call on SDL (which you can find on the XAO analysis thread).  You're learning tech/a.




No I really did think it was brilliant.

Short to the point will be either right or wrong.

Brilliant.

You should trade your brilliance.
I trade mine!
Click to expand.




Perhaps Ive learnt??


----------



## sinner (20 January 2011)

*Re: XAO Analysis*



sammy84 said:


> Bit of divergence is the US and sharp down move overnight. Russell 2000 got killed. Beginning of a correction?




Fins and smallcaps led in the US on the way up, they should lead on the way down. Picture looks different here though. 

(in the second chart, black line is XAO)


----------



## starman45 (22 January 2011)

The price is still around to support 4860ish.
Have a nice weekend!


----------



## Logique (30 January 2011)

*US stocks fall most in almost 6 months * -January 29, 2011

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/us-stocks-fall-most-in-almost-6-months-20110129-1a8of.html

'...Developments in the Middle East could be a trigger for investors to sell at a time when many expected a correction after a market rally of about 18 per cent since September.

"I think the next two to three weeks, the crisis in Egypt and potentially across the Middle East, might be an excuse for a big selloff of 5 to 10 per cent," said Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, Ohio...'


----------



## Broadway (30 January 2011)

Logique said:


> *US stocks fall most in almost 6 months * -January 29, 2011
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/us-stocks-fall-most-in-almost-6-months-20110129-1a8of.html
> 
> ...




Alot of people want a 5-10% correction to make another long term entry.
Thats why it wont happen. 1-2% maybe but there will be too much buying for it to be very deep.


----------



## sammy84 (31 January 2011)

Broadway said:


> Alot of people want a 5-10% correction to make another long term entry.
> Thats why it wont happen. 1-2% maybe but there will be too much buying for it to be very deep.




There will also be people sitting with a lot of open profits who might get nervous. Can only trade what we see and for now it looks like the short side is preferred.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (4 February 2011)

Floods, Cat 5 Cyclones, major unrest in Egypt and the markets just keep grinding higher; albeit in a slow and ugly fashion.

Nothing seems to be spooking them.


----------



## tech/a (4 February 2011)

> Nothing seems to be spooking them.




Wont be long now then!


----------



## Broadway (4 February 2011)

tech/a said:


> Wont be long now then!




the short side is preferred - sammy

All up since Egypt..maybe things arent so bad.


----------



## sammy84 (4 February 2011)

tech/a said:


> Wont be long now then!




Suggesting this is the final leg higher?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (4 February 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Suggesting this is the final leg higher?




Time will tell. Perhaps everyone will jump on board the long side with recent highs breached and longer term highs only some 100-200 points away. 

Perhaps it is the final leg higher; but then people have been calling for a retracement for quite some time. If floods, cyclones and unrest in Egypt don't spook the market; what will it take? What will be the event to cause the long awaited correction?

Fun game this trading


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 February 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Perhaps it is the final leg higher; but then people have been calling for a retracement for quite some time. If floods, cyclones and unrest in Egypt don't spook the market; what will it take? What will be the event to cause the long awaited correction?
> 
> Fun game this trading




Wysiwyg makes mental note :- market defiant at anticipated tops and bottoms. Persistently push higher or lower.


----------



## Logique (6 February 2011)

Alan Kohler interviewed Gerard Minack on Inside Business this morning, 6 Feb. 

I thought here we go, noted bear. Not so this time. Oh yes, said Gerard, there are sovereign debt and inflation issues about, but..2013-2014 you know. We'll worry about it then. Gerard suppposed that the debt-inflation issues must come to a head sometime, but wasn't this being said about Japan 20 years ago. 

Gerard thinks there will be another leg up in equities markets, of 10% to 15%.  The arithmetic would be: XAO 4950 plus 10% = 5,445; or plus 15% = 5,692. 

I think Gerard is a bear , but I do respect his opinions.


----------



## Boggo (7 February 2011)

Just one of potentially many pictorial views of both the XAO and the DOW.

(click to expand)


----------



## sammy84 (9 February 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Wysiwyg makes mental note :- market defiant at anticipated tops and bottoms. Persistently push higher or lower.




Will be interesting to see what happens today with 5000 being hit.


----------



## Boggo (9 February 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Will be interesting to see what happens today with 5000 being hit.




Approaching an interesting area sammy, needs to break through to around 5100 imo.

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 February 2011)

A definite pause here.  Nothing has moved in the last hour.  

I feel a big sell off coming.  Back to 4800.


----------



## sammy84 (9 February 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A definite pause here.  Nothing has moved in the last hour.
> 
> I feel a big sell off coming.  Back to 4800.




Uneasy feeling indeed. Can go either way still. I'm sure there are preemptive shorts in the market now, which will be quickly squeezed if the market kicks higher. 

I'm waiting until 3 50pm to work out what if I'm closing out my longs.


----------



## Broadway (16 February 2011)

Broadway said:


> Alot of people want a 5-10% correction to make another long term entry.
> Thats why it wont happen. 1-2% maybe but there will be too much buying for it to be very deep.




Just have to point out how right I was 16 days ago after the egypt dip...all up since then.
Doesnt happen often enough though.

Well finally the ES hit 1332 just an hour ago.
It has now doubled the 666 low of the gfc.
Ofcourse the spi low was 3100, from memory.
So we should be at 6200....wouldn't that be sweeeet

Anyway, some reckon the devil controls the markets, so now hes appeased, he will let it go down.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 February 2011)

Reversal gathering momentum.  Just to state the obvious.  -10>-20>-30>-?40>....

Not a single stock to buy.  100% cash.


----------



## Broadway (22 February 2011)

Well I'm seeing some volume in Asia today.
Probably just some early support that's too early.
Have to see if any real volume comes in tonight.
Gold silver and oil finally topped off after their parabolic rallies.
Thats where the real fear money went on this occasion. Not the usd.
Interesting that gold and silver barely moved with egypt but flies up with Libya.
Fun times.


----------



## Boggo (23 February 2011)

Boggo said:


> Approaching an interesting area sammy, needs to break through to around 5100 imo.




Follow up to my previous post here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=610417&viewfull=1#post610417

Looks like it hit a brick wall right on cue.

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 March 2011)

I'm going with a low of 4870 today.

Still some stocks looking strong, but the numbers are thinning.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 March 2011)

The number of strong stocks really thinned out today.  

I'd guess it's going to get murky soon.  Not sharp drops, just continued slow-drip selling.


----------



## adobee (11 March 2011)

whats the expection for xao finnish today from chartists ??


----------



## sammy84 (11 March 2011)

adobee said:


> whats the expection for xao finnish today from chartists ??




Can't post a chart till I get home, but based on previous price action after US sell offs on a Thursday:

XAO has hit its low of the day on the open
Throughout the afternoon it should steadily increase back to near B/E
Slight sell off in the last 20min

And then it's anyones guess on Monday.


----------



## Boggo (11 March 2011)

The chart below is of IGO. Are there are similarities between what IGO has done and what the XAO could do.
The expected correction after a 5 wave sequence is a correction that is greater in time and price than any previous correction (see IGO chart - I am not predicting what IGO may do from here though).

This is just my amateur approach to this stuff but it is amazing just how many stocks/indices etc do seem follow the rules.

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A definite pause here.  Nothing has moved in the last hour.
> 
> I feel a big sell off coming.  Back to 4800.




Now that 4800 busted to the downside, next stop on my chart is approx. 4650.   I think the down trend will slow down it's pace and bottom in about 3-4 weeks time befoore any decent buying opportunities arise again.  

The 3-4 week time frame and the 4650 target is the juncture of two fairly major trendlines.  It would keep the long term uptrend intact if it bounces here IMO.


----------



## sammy84 (11 March 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Can't post a chart till I get home, but based on previous price action after US sell offs on a Thursday:
> 
> XAO has hit its low of the day on the open
> Throughout the afternoon it should steadily increase back to near B/E
> ...




Wrong


----------



## nulla nulla (13 March 2011)

Resources continued to retrace on the news out of China, dragging the rest of the market along for the ride. The AUD$ retraced against the US$ (as did most other currencies) as the Libya tribal wars continue to disrupt oil supplies. This "flight to the dollar" is almost laughable when you consider the impact of the U.S printing more dollars.

I would be interested to hear the predictions for next week from the "Elliot Wavers". Do we continue to head south from here or rebound?


----------



## tech/a (13 March 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Resources continued to retrace on the news out of China, dragging the rest of the market along for the ride. The AUD$ retraced against the US$ (as did most other currencies) as the Libya tribal wars continue to disrupt oil supplies. This "flight to the dollar" is almost laughable when you consider the impact of the U.S printing more dollars.
> 
> I would be interested to hear the predictions for next week from the "Elliot Wavers". Do we continue to head south from here or rebound?




My thoughts here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=432


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Now that 4800 busted to the downside, next stop on my chart is approx. 4650.   I think the down trend will slow down it's pace and bottom in about 3-4 weeks time befoore any decent buying opportunities arise again.
> 
> The 3-4 week time frame and the 4650 target is the juncture of two fairly major trendlines.  It would keep the long term uptrend intact if it bounces here IMO.




4650 hit in one day.  Only 3-4 weeks out.  

The rebound ...? tomorrow looks like it might be small.  No way I'd buy this market.


----------



## whitefang (14 March 2011)

While technically we seem to have reached a strong support band, I am wondering what other people think about the fact that US has not joined yet the big move down...I can see XJO getting to 4450-4500 area just by having SP500 testing their major 1275 support level, and if that gets broken, it may look really bad for XJO/XAO...


----------



## Synergy (14 March 2011)

I'm concerned about that too.

Given where we got to today and rebounding pretty strongly, I would be happy to call a bottom. But when comparing to the DJIA, I'm very worried.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 March 2011)

After the initial panic the market bounced. Mind you the chart looks a bit sick. DYOR (and good luck).




Maybe viagra would help?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2011)

Synergy said:


> I'm concerned about that too.
> 
> Given where we got to today and rebounding pretty strongly, I would be happy to call a bottom. But when comparing to the DJIA, I'm very worried.




If you think that is the bottom mate, good on you, I've seen better bottoms in Kings Cross at 7am.



nulla nulla said:


> After the initial panic the market bounced. Mind you the chart looks a bit sick. DYOR (and good luck).
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Understatement of the year nn

This is going to bring us back to 3500

gg


----------



## whitefang (14 March 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is going to bring us back to 3500
> 
> gg




Well, possible, but improbable, as it will imply a double-dip...no real signs here...so far.
I would rather go with a re-test of the Jun-Jul '10 lows, if SPX follow us down with a 8-10% correction


----------



## nunthewiser (14 March 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> After the initial panic the market bounced. Mind you the chart looks a bit sick. DYOR (and good luck).
> 
> View attachment 41866
> 
> ...





theres a bounce due here m8........personally think not much of one tho

a stop around the tails will provide a nice low % risk entry on SOME.....


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2011)

whitefang said:


> Well, possible, but improbable, as it will imply a double-dip...no real signs here...so far.
> I would rather go with a re-test of the Jun-Jul '10 lows, if SPX follow us down with a 8-10% correction




Possible mate, possible, but in reality, and I'm not a funnymentalist, things are pretty crook.

And the charts imho point to a return to a long term trend line, see my post on xao analysis.

gg


----------



## nunthewiser (15 March 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> theres a bounce due here m8........personally think not much of one tho
> 
> a stop around the tails will provide a nice low % risk entry on SOME.....




Sorry about that Nulla..

shorts still running and doing well but near on instant stopouts on quickie longs took part of the shine from them.

how you guys doing?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 March 2011)

I have 4664 as the day's high, which is about now.

Don't start buying now.  And if you did buy at open, well done, good time to sell.

IMO.


----------



## skyQuake (16 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I have 4664 as the day's high, which is about now.
> 
> Don't start buying now.  And if you did buy at open, well done, good time to sell.
> 
> IMO.




We've fallen 400pts in almost a fairly short period. The initial bounce got crushed by the japan quake, and everyone that went long prob got washed out yesterday.
Long bias should be good for the rest of the week imo.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 March 2011)

I mean for those trading intra-day.

I can't get any feel at all for the rest of the week, but your argument sounds good.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 March 2011)

Looks like it might finish strongly.  That inverse head an shoulders (just completed)  has 4675 as a target for close, but would need to run pretty hard in the last 30 mins.  If it gets close I'll grab some of the strongest running u-stcoks for tomorrow.


----------



## Logique (16 March 2011)

The jury is out, it's not just about how Japan recovers. 

There's Europe too.  And Mr Bernanke in the US, running the printing press. And oh yes, little old Australia with a Greens Senate balance of power after July, threatening this bizarre and crippling carbon tax.

So...I think 4350.  But don't discount the double-top retracement target of 4000.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 March 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> Sorry about that Nulla..
> 
> shorts still running and doing well but near on instant stopouts on quickie longs took part of the shine from them.
> 
> how you guys doing?




two quick in and outs on woolworths and gpt for pizza and two cartons of beer, missed todays entry on cpa at $0.815 but will watch cpa and map for dip/entry points for trade on a few cents gain. Other wise wary of the market retracing further (possibly much further).


----------



## grace (16 March 2011)

Okay, I am guilty of buying the falling knife perhaps.  I did some buying yesterday and today.  Looking for a small bounce and will offload.    Didn't touch uranium explorers or miners.  I think sentiment will be down for a long time there.  Just my 

Overall though still not heavily invested in the market.  Still plenty of bad fundamentals floating around the world.


----------



## Julia (16 March 2011)

grace said:


> Still plenty of bad fundamentals floating around the world.



Exactly.  There is too much papering over of the cracks which will not work in the longer term.  The foundations are not solid.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 March 2011)

Julia said:


> Exactly.  There is too much papering over of the cracks which will not work in the longer term.  The foundations are not solid.




Agree Julia, have a look at my long term chart on the asx analysis thread, I'll be buying from 3600 down, it may go as low as 3200, but I'll be fully invested in the asx at that stage.

gg


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 March 2011)

I reckon we might only reach 4770 today.  I'm going to sell then anyway.


----------



## Boggo (23 March 2011)

Just a bit of a follow up to these three posts...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=610417&viewfull=1#post610417
and
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=614162&viewfull=1#post614162
and
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=618105&viewfull=1#post618105

XAO has followed the IGO pattern and seems to have caught up.

Next step is $5.45 for IGO and sub 4500 for the XAO ??
Just my  again.

IGO and 2 x XAO charts below. (click to expand)


----------



## Logique (25 March 2011)

Logique said:


> The jury is out, it's not just about how Japan recovers.
> 
> There's Europe too.  And Mr Bernanke in the US, running the printing press. And oh yes, little old Australia with a Greens Senate balance of power after July, threatening this bizarre and crippling carbon tax.
> 
> So...I think 4350.  But don't discount the double-top retracement target of 4000.



Time to 'fess up. To this point in time, I got this wrong. 

Markets have shown more resilience than I thought post-earthquake/tsunami/nuclear plants, and are recovering by the day. The $AUD/$USD is above 1.02 this morning.


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## Gringotts Bank (25 March 2011)

I'm finding XAO a bit hard to read the last few days.  My gut feel says -25 Monday.  NRL just got sold into pretty heavily at close.  <<(edited).  Don't think it will run far on Monday.


----------



## sammy84 (25 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm finding XAO a bit hard to read the last few days.  My gut feel says -25 Monday.  NRL just got sold into pretty heavily at close.  <<(edited).  Don't think it will run far on Monday.




I'm in the same boat as you. The US has been very resiliant which is muking up a lot of my analysis. Currently have 1 long and 1 short on individual stocks. Am not planning on adding any positions until thingsbecome clearer.


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## nulla nulla (26 March 2011)

Hoo ray up she rises, hoo ray up she rises.....like a drunken sailer the xao continues to stagger about, falling down, getting back up and then falling down again.




Meanwhile the trend is my friend, but my bags are packed and i'm ready to jump ship as soon as we hit any more foul weather.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> -25 Monday.




Cancel that.  +25, taking it to a high of 4865.  Short term top and down leg starting Tues.


----------



## awg (28 March 2011)

Something very weird just occured.

Channel 10 Finance report at 5.30 Mon 28th, reported we had a very good day with the XAO up 47 points 

A great day for the miners with FMG up 

It really did just happen, there would be a podcast to backme up surely?

I did finish up for the day, but I just dunno were they plucked that from

must be some other days report


----------



## cutz (28 March 2011)

awg said:


> Channel 10 Finance report at 5.30 Mon 28th, reported we had a very good day with the XAO up 47 points




Yeah it was pretty weird, maybe it's tommorrow's report.


----------



## nunthewiser (28 March 2011)

short seems fair to me 

the time has come.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (29 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Cancel that.  +25, taking it to a high of 4865.  Short term top and down leg starting Tues.



You should have stuck to your guns! The low for the day was down 17 points. Your prediction of -25 was pretty close (I'm ignoring the close ). Interesting to see what happens today. Fairly low volumes traded on the DJ / FTSE over the past few days.


----------



## sinner (29 March 2011)

Interesting contributions on this thread. Thanks everyone for your thoughts!

FWIW I can see the same wave count posted by Boggo and tech, seems reasonable to me. The R:R is good so long as we don't intersect wave 1 down then it's ok to keep a short bias.

Chart is a little crowded, but all important info.



1. Fib retracement, we retraced nicely the wave 1-2-3 down impulse in wave 4 back to the 61.8%.
2. 55EMA acting as resistance for last high close.
3. Yesterdays action printed as an inside bar. Aggressive traders might be interested in using this as an entry point (in either direction I guess).
4. Raff/linear regression channel. Conservative players should be waiting for a close outside this proposed wave 4 channel before going short for wave 5.
5. Jan-March period is just about finished. March-June period is coming up, we will almost certainly not be anywhere near where we are now by the end of that. In this context a market neutral bet on volatility may be more appropriate than directional trade. 4800 June straddle?

All parameters nicely defined for now, make some hay while the sun shines.


----------



## Logique (29 March 2011)

sinner said:


> ..
> ..
> 5. Jan-March period is just about finished. March-June period is coming up, we will almost certainly not be anywhere near where we are now by the end of that. In this context a market neutral bet on volatility may be more appropriate than directional trade. 4800 June straddle?..



This is my thinking also Sinner. I've never made much money trading the second calendar quarter. Neutral is good for now. So it's a mix of shorts and longs, to me that's the percentage play atm.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 March 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> You should have stuck to your guns! The low for the day was down 17 points. Your prediction of -25 was pretty close (I'm ignoring the close ). Interesting to see what happens today. Fairly low volumes traded on the DJ / FTSE over the past few days.




I just plain got it wrong zzaaxx.   

I think the problem with our market right now is that for the past 2 weeks, everyone has been expecting the next corrective phase to hit.  When everyone expects the same thing, it either delays the move considerably, or it simply never happens.  I got sucked in to the 'group think' without even realizing.  A good reason to avoid these sorts of forums!

Once again today, very few DT opportunities.  I missed EMS, and the rest of the filed looks blahhh.


----------



## aarbee (30 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I just plain got it wrong zzaaxx.
> 
> I think the problem with our market right now is that for the past 2 weeks, everyone has been expecting the next corrective phase to hit.  When everyone expects the same thing, it either delays the move considerably, or it simply never happens.  I got sucked in to the 'group think' without even realizing.  A good reason to avoid these sorts of forums!
> 
> Once again today, very few DT opportunities.  I missed EMS, and the rest of the filed looks blahhh.




I had a similar experience. I was in five long positions and baled out on 8/3/11. As the market was falling, I was patting myself thinking how clever I am. I am a mechanical systems trader and generally don't look back on my trades,  but on 25th just as an exercise I worked out the hypothetical result if I stuck to my system and stayed in my trades.  The result was quite illuminating. (See Attached)
Moral of the story:  Just stay with your system.
Having said that, I am still very curious to explore the possible advantages of the Wave counting etc and the application of same in my discretionary system which I intend to insulate from my mechanical trading systems.

Cheers

View attachment Lost Profit.doc


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 March 2011)

ok I'll have another shot.  We just saw the short term top at 4927!  It's on a major trend line after all.

I agree that participation is quite important aarbee.  Being ready to trade each day, whether you get the signals or not.


----------



## sinner (30 March 2011)

Logique said:


> This is my thinking also Sinner. I've never made much money trading the second calendar quarter. Neutral is good for now. So it's a mix of shorts and longs, to me that's the percentage play atm.




Just for the record, since I posted the idea and thought others might be curious...

BHPZK8/BHPZJ8 $46 straddle June 23rd expiry, going for 1.94/1.795 = $3.735 premium - at market. So you would get paid dollar for dollar short or long below 42.265 or above 49.735, to see a 1:1 on the premium risk, would need to see $53.47 or $38.53 at settlement.


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## Logique (31 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> ok I'll have another shot.  We just saw the short term top at 4927!  It's on a major trend line after all...



Today I'm more amenable to that theory Gringotts. Although the two week uptrend is as yet unbroken, tonight is the last session of the first quarter in the US. What happens next will be telling.


----------



## nulla nulla (2 April 2011)

Moving closer to 5000 and possibly beyond. The 5050 - 5100 level looks like a major resistance point to me. 
As previously posted I am expecting another correction, probably triggered by further unrest in the middle east pushing the oil price higher or one of the European lot defaulting on sovereign debt or needing a bailout.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 April 2011)

I can't find a single stock that has moved in the last hour.  Just like when the tide is at its peak, it appears not to be moving.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 April 2011)

Not sure what brought that on (@ 2pm), but a close below yesterday's high would be quite significant, I feel. (ie. 4969).


----------



## kingcarmleo (4 April 2011)

World markets are looking up, reckon we might go higher tomorrow.


----------



## tech/a (4 April 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Not sure what brought that on (@ 2pm), but a close below yesterday's high would be quite significant, I feel. (ie. 4969).




Toppy SPI
FTSE and DAX currently.
US has a mind of its own so anything could happen tonight.
 Two consecutive closes off its highs by a fair amount--pretty nervy--will come off with a bang if/when it does.


----------



## Boggo (5 April 2011)

Its at an interesting point at the moment tech/a.

Below is a weekly chart, if this count is correct we need a break through 5130 for a new upward trend to be in place but this scenario is still leaning towards another leg down.

Is this what you see at the moment ?

(I am hoping that it keeps going up, the last month has been my best for 2011 while constantly expecting and predicting a downturn, weird game this eh ! )

The daily chart is in an 'in between' situation until something gives in either direction.

Weekly XAO chart, click to expand.


----------



## tech/a (5 April 2011)

Pretty well Boggo.

Your spot on in my view.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 April 2011)

Although the xao continues to creep higher, the two speed economy is becomming more and more evident. One share that I have previously used as a barometer of investor confidence is MQG. MQG is normally reflective of the degree of investor risk appetite. At the moment MQG is languising while the xao is reaching for new (recent) highs.

No doubt resources will continue to underpin our economy but the rest of the sectors are still sorting themselves out and haven't shaken off the fallout from the gfc, imo. 

One good thing is that money appears to be getting cheaper and a lot of companies are refinancing debt at better rates. At least there is one good thing happening in the non resource sectors atm.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2011)

Well, here we are... new territory.  I guess a correction will happen at some point but right now, we're newly into the highest point since the GFC.


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## Julia (11 April 2011)

Perhaps, but still a long way from the pre-GFC highs, something that should give everyone who was sucked in by advice to "just hold on, it will all be OK" food for thought.

More generally, on the GFC and moral hazard, this article is worth a read.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank-bailouts-mask-a-system-in-decay-20110410-1d9f0.html


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## Boggo (11 April 2011)

Julia said:


> Perhaps, but still a long way from the pre-GFC highs, something that should give everyone who was sucked in by advice to "just hold on, it will all be OK" food for thought.




Agree Julia, that is a single digit profit fund manager approach to locking in their annual fees.

The XAO is in an interesting area on the weekly chart, if it gets through 5130 it is definitely a positive sign.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## PinguPingu (19 April 2011)

Heavy negative signs from overseas markets tonight..


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## Gringotts Bank (19 April 2011)

No one has predicted a low turning point yet, which I suppose to mean we have a lot further to go, downwards.

I think maybe 4800 or 4630.


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## Gringotts Bank (28 April 2011)

20/21 April seemed weak, despite decent gains on Ords.

Today very subdued again.  Little participation in the smaller end of town.  Market desperate for good news.


----------



## sammy84 (28 April 2011)

Are we in a position now where when the AUD strengthen further this will have a negative effect on our market?


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## Gringotts Bank (29 April 2011)

Hopefully that's the low for the day (-59).


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## sammy84 (2 May 2011)

I like today's price action. Today's rejection of weakness at minor support coupled with a weakening of the AUD (hopefully the AUD is undergoing a slight retrace as we speak and RBA decision tomorrow could spead this up). Was stopped out of one position at the open. Will be scanning for long set-ups tonight.


----------



## sinner (3 May 2011)

Starting to see signs of small cap underperformance, this is the XSO weekly (XKO minus XTO = XSO), the oscillator down the bottom plots the relative strength of XSO vs XAO on a 52 week basis.




At least in the Aussie markets, it seems like smallcaps lead the moves.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 May 2011)

I agree. Small caps are all I trade and there has been very few opportunities in the last week or so.  Everything I buy gets rapidly sold off and it's time to stay out altogether I think.

The markets in general (world markets) have gone too long without positive news and it's starting to take its toll.  The Osama/Obama thing is irrelevant to economic performance, as the DOW showed last night.


----------



## sinner (3 May 2011)

So you don't short, Gringotts?

How do you make money when the market is going down? Just stay flat?

Small cap weakness, easy money on the short side if you can find a pig with too much lipstick on already.


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## Gringotts Bank (3 May 2011)

Well I can normally find enough long opportunities even in bear phases, but I am finding it tough going at the moment.  So no, I don't short.  Taking some advice from your signature and letting the mud settle.  I've decided to trade only if the futures indicate a green day.  Day trading only at the moment.


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## nulla nulla (4 May 2011)

Where to from here? If it doesn't find support here at 4800 will 4600 be next?


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## Gringotts Bank (8 May 2011)

Asian markets are driving the XAO much moreso than the US at the moment... obviously.  But if we can't manage a solid 40-50+ points tomorrow, we're  headed for approx. 4700 (trend line).


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## Gringotts Bank (8 May 2011)

I wouldn't say these trend lines are all that convincing. But they are the best i can find.  They indicate a small reversal upwards, with a high of approx. 4900 this week.  Or, a drop to 4700 if we don't put on decent gains tomorrow.  IMO.


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## Gringotts Bank (16 May 2011)

I can't see any reason for the market to turn back up with any strength.  Main reason is that sentiment sucks.  I think we'll get another pause, similar to what happened 4-8 days ago.  Sticking with the Heineken- Asahi chart.  Trendlines @ 4724 (today's close) and 4690 (minor) and 4650.


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## nunthewiser (16 May 2011)

personally think it sitting around a major pivot point and would expect a bounce around here.

i could be wrong

often am


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 May 2011)

If it holds above +60 for the day I'll have to re-enter before close.  But only for some gap action overnight for stocks with high $ turnover.  NEN is the only contender for that sort of trade at the moment.  edit: IDO too.  been gapping lately. 

I like to see runners.  For me, specs stocks that are running through multiple price steps and putting on 40%+ signify a healthy market sentiment.  Not seeing it yet.  Volumes still low too.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 May 2011)

I often read the posts on this thread and it's sister thread, just to see what different people think.

Is it just me, or are the majority of predictions made here wrong. I would expect at least a 50/50 mix. But most cases it seems when people come out with a prediction one way or another they are mostly prooven wrong quite quickly.


----------



## nunthewiser (19 May 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> personally think it sitting around a major pivot point and would expect a bounce around here.
> 
> i could be wrong
> 
> often am






Tysonboss1 said:


> I often read the posts on this thread and it's sister thread, just to see what different people think.
> 
> Is it just me, or are the majority of predictions made here wrong. I would expect at least a 50/50 mix. But most cases it seems when people come out with a prediction one way or another they are mostly prooven wrong quite quickly.




Not this one Bud 

guaranteed wrong next call tho....ya get that


----------



## nulla nulla (19 May 2011)

The rest of the world bounced so the xao went along for the ride. Hoewever, the real problem is that the USA has been running the money printing machine non stop and nothing has changed.

Their unemployment has not improved;
Housing construction is at an all time low..still;
Businesses are sitting on huge amounts of savings rather than create jobs and develop infrastructure; and
China has bought up all the bonds and can now call in the debts any time it feels inclined.

The USA needs to increase interest rates and taxes on business as well as the wealthy. Start tightening the belt and reducing their debt. But that is unpalatable as it doesn't win votes. So they keep digging the hole. They can't even go to war with Pakistan to stimulate their economy because they are already overstretched in Afghanistan and Iraq. Above 12000 the djia is a bubble waiting for an excuse to pop.

In Australia investments in the xao are low. Volumes have been decreasing since the dollar started rising as overseas investors cashed out. The punters know that the djia is a bubble waiting to pop and has climbed into the 12000 - 13000 bracket on misplaced euphoria. The punters are all pulling their funds when the xao claws it's way above 5000. There is a fairly clear pattern there for the traders. 

Anyone thinking we can sustain a climb above 5100 really needs to have a good long think about it. The USA is stuffed, China keeps putting the finance brakes on, slowing resource imports etc and the European Soveriegn debt has been managed by a bloke that chases hotel maids arround wanting to sodomise them.

Lets face it. At best we can go sideways for a long time until the world takes a reality check and decides to do something realistic about it.


----------



## nunthewiser (19 May 2011)

personally i think we reached close/if not the top of this current lil rally and we due to head south  again...

i could be wrong.....laws of averages dictate i should be.

ya get that


----------



## RazzaDazzla (19 May 2011)

Nulla Nulla,

I agree with you 100%. However the truth is, NOTHING is spooking the market at the moment. Look at all the crap that has been thrown at it and it shakes it off and keeps on moving. Wars, riots, revolts, sovereign debt, earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns.

Maybe this is your point though; there's a lot of crap that is just 'itching' to pull the market down; and once the money presses stop, the party's over?

Nun,

Just curious for your thinking re. this little rally is over and back to the down trend?


----------



## nunthewiser (19 May 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Nun,
> 
> Just curious for your thinking re. this little rally is over and back to the down trend?




Purely technical and my reading into what i can view from here.

i could be wrong


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 May 2011)

The market hasn't felt this weak in years, imo.  XAO is sort of meandering with no conviction.  I agree it has zero chance of getting above 5000 in the short to medium term.  Looks like it's deciding when it's going to die.  Geeez.  Depressing. 

Strong day from PIR.  That's about it.


----------



## Synergy (19 May 2011)

Europe looking quite strong tonight, and US is pointing up again.

Things always feel weak before strong up moves.

I still feel that the March low will really take some breaking. And there have been 5 clear waves down in this move.


----------



## nulla nulla (20 May 2011)

So after a bounce the xao suddenly turns constipated and can't make any further progress. Must have been a dead cat bounce and next week the xao will crap itself and fall like a brick. Lets hope it can hold 4650.


----------



## Boggo (23 May 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> So after a bounce the xao suddenly turns constipated and can't make any further progress. Must have been a dead cat bounce and next week the xao will crap itself and fall like a brick. Lets hope it can hold 4650.




Seems to be an area of attraction/support in the mid to low 4600's if the 16th May low gets taken out.

(click to expand)


----------



## tothemax6 (23 May 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I often read the posts on this thread and it's sister thread, just to see what different people think.
> Is it just me, or are the majority of predictions made here wrong. I would expect at least a 50/50 mix. But most cases it seems when people come out with a prediction one way or another they are mostly prooven wrong quite quickly.



Awesome, I shall use this thread as an inverse trading signal . 
To be fair though, what do you expect when people are relying so heavily in _line voodoo_, ahem, 'technical analysis'.

Indeed, (and forgive me nulla for being a c__t) let me provide a sample of the sort of insight into the markets which produces much of the random predictions:


> nulla nulla said:
> 
> 
> > So after a bounce the xao suddenly turns constipated and can't make any further progress. Must have been a dead cat bounce and next week the xao will crap itself and fall like a brick. Lets hope it can hold 4650.



Tysonboss, I don't know about you, but it is a great act of mental exertion on my part, to visualize a stock index 'getting constipated', 'bouncing like a dead cat', then 'crapping itself and falling like a brick'. To be honest, any attempt at such a visualization has me rolling round on the floor in tears of laughter. Who needs 'Me, Myself and Irene', when you can scroll through such a thread. 

Gentlemen, believing that the future price action of asset X can be determined primarily by its price history, is mathematically and logically speaking, impossible. It is a self reference error, you are attempting to deduce the output of a system who's output is determined by it's input - which is its output.
The future price action of asset X is determined by information external to X, else X must be random due to being coupled to nothing but itself.


----------



## woomp001 (23 May 2011)

> Gentlemen, believing that the future price action of asset X can be determined primarily by its price history, is mathematically and logically speaking, impossible. It is a self reference error, you are attempting to deduce the output of a system who's output is determined by it's input - which is its output.
> The future price action of asset X is determined by information external to X, else X must be random due to being coupled to nothing but itself.




My view is that if you are trying to accurately "predict future price action" then this is kinda correct... However, i feel that this position is to strident, and that historical price action has its place, particuarly when used as a guide, and particuarly when looking at support and resistance. I think we need to remember that herd mentality, as much as actual fundamentals drive prices, and herd mentality is often created by support/resistance (aka historical price action).....


----------



## skc (23 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Gentlemen, believing that the future price action of asset X can be determined primarily by its price history, is mathematically and logically speaking, impossible. It is a self reference error, you are attempting to deduce the output of a system who's output is determined by it's input - which is its output.
> 
> The future price action of asset X is determined by information external to X, else X must be random due to being coupled to nothing but itself.




Your logic is not necessarily correct. Yes, historical price is the input to technical analysis. But historical price is the output of external information (as you've pointed out). So you can say that technical analysis is actually using historical price as proxy to decode those external input variables. As such, using historical price in attempt to understand the future doesn't lead to the conclusion that a share price must be random. It also doesn't mean whether it works or not - but your conclusion isn't correct.

The root of certain schools of technical analysis actually has a lot more in common to fundamental analysis than meets the eye... although I am not saying that about things like wave theory etc (not saying people can't make it work, but I remain a sceptic).


----------



## nulla nulla (24 May 2011)

As we know the market is driven by sentiment. We also like to believe that F/A and T/A have some basis in determining a shares worth. Then we look for "market indicators" that give us some idea as to what everyone is thinking and how it will determine which way the share prices move. Charts are a very good way of showing market sentiment.

Charts show us interday, daily, weekly movement. Over time we refer to high points and low points as resistance levels and support levels. Then we make predictions (except elliot wavers) which we can get right or we can get wrong. If enough of the people following charts believe in the points of resistance and support and trade in line with their beliefs, the chart indicators will be self fullfilling.

At the moment (in my opinion) the djia is over-inflated and the world knows it is unsustainable. Accordingly (in my opinion) there is a lot of people that are skittish and ready to pull their money out. There are also the large hedgefunds that have pushed the djia up to false highs and they must be getting ready to short the crap out of the djia and any other market where they can get away with it. The bubble will burst.

The xao closed down yesterday and is likely to close lower today (continue crapping itself and falling like a brick, for now?). I believe this because volumes are generally lower, buyers are holding back, sellers are pushing the prices lower and shorters are encouraging prices to go lower still (a bit of the "stay away in May" theory). 

However, our economy is sound and the xao prices will rebound. Now is the time (in my opinion) to look for entry prices on the stocks you have researched and know so well, to take advantage of the rebound that will come, whether it is next week, next month or next quarter.  Good luck


----------



## tothemax6 (24 May 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> As we know the market is driven by sentiment.



OK sure, but market sentiment is driven by individuals processing information. No tech/a price pattern ever prevented a stock from shooting up or down on a news event. Tech/a is ultimately, processing second hand information. Others have made their decisions based on the information at hand, made purchases, which techies will then process second-hand at a substantial lag. Sure, there is most likely a small amount of information contained in the price action over time, and sure much of that will be techies teching each other, but this is a shout in a thunderstorm of economics. 

The question you should be asking, is what initiated the change in 'market sentiment' that led to the recent downturn. For instance, could a techie have known this change was coming? No, he would be subject to the random chance of a prior chart peak at a similar price (for 'support') telling him, or he would be waiting for the drop to become big enough to call it a trend (too late).
A good trader, on the other hand, knew what was going on in the Chinese construction industry, and saw a piece of news: 'copper piling up in LME'. He saw news about developers finally having to _drop_ prices. He also knew where all that Aussie coal and iron ore was going. He knew that the RBA was tightening the money supply, that no good economic news was going to come from the US, that the EU wasn't going to provide any form of good news because its an economic basket case, etc etc etc. 
When you know what the news is going to be before it happens, you know what 'market sentiment' is going to be, and in turn what the price action will be. By the time the techies receive the scraps, the correct trade has already been executed (and possibly closed) by those with the insight. 


skc said:


> Your logic is not necessarily correct. Yes, historical price is the input to technical analysis. But historical price is the output of external information (as you've pointed out). So you can say that technical analysis is actually using historical price as proxy to decode those external input variables. As such, using historical price in attempt to understand the future doesn't lead to the conclusion that a share price must be random. It also doesn't mean whether it works or not - but your conclusion isn't correct.



Thankyou for your rebuttal. If:
Out = f(Out), then:
Out = f(f(f(f(........infinity......Out)))))).....
So perhaps the word I was looking for, rather than 'random' is 'indeterminate'. Although of course, if something is random it is indeterminate, though I don't think the opposite is true (but my maths is a little rusty).


----------



## ginar (24 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> OK sure, but market sentiment is driven by individuals processing information. No tech/a price pattern ever prevented a stock from shooting up or down on a news event. Tech/a is ultimately, processing second hand information. Others have made their decisions based on the information at hand, made purchases, which techies will then process second-hand at a substantial lag. Sure, there is most likely a small amount of information contained in the price action over time, and sure much of that will be techies teching each other, but this is a shout in a thunderstorm of economics.
> 
> The question you should be asking, is what initiated the change in 'market sentiment' that led to the recent downturn. For instance, could a techie have known this change was coming? No, he would be subject to the random chance of a prior chart peak at a similar price (for 'support') telling him, or he would be waiting for the drop to become big enough to call it a trend (too late).
> A good trader, on the other hand, knew what was going on in the Chinese construction industry, and saw a piece of news: 'copper piling up in LME'. He saw news about developers finally having to _drop_ prices. He also knew where all that Aussie coal and iron ore was going. He knew that the RBA was tightening the money supply, that no good economic news was going to come from the US, that the EU wasn't going to provide any form of good news because its an economic basket case, etc etc etc.
> ...





what a load of bollocks , just because " YOU " cant do it means no-one can . i have nothing to gain proving to you can outperform the market using " voodoo " so i will continue to do what i always do and say nothing , please those with open minds continue to explore the simple effective ways price structure can be read and used to improve returns , dont let intellectual dribble put you of . swing highs /lows , ranges , cycles of time over price can all be used extremely successfully to outperform .


trading of news ........ by the time you hear it ....... its priced in


----------



## RazzaDazzla (24 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> A good trader, on the other hand, knew what was going on in the Chinese construction industry, and saw a piece of news: 'copper piling up in LME'. He saw news about developers finally having to _drop_ prices. He also knew where all that Aussie coal and iron ore was going. He knew that the RBA was tightening the money supply, that no good economic news was going to come from the US, that the EU wasn't going to provide any form of good news because its an economic basket case, etc etc etc.




A good trader (and blind freddy) knew that an earthquake and tsunami smashed Japan and that a Nuclear emergency was happening. They also know that USA and Euro debt is sky high! Yet look at the rally after the quake! FA did not say "this is a great time to buy!" My point is, everyone knows there are major issues in the world yet no one want's to be the first one to jump ship. If all these issues can't cause the markets to fall over; then what will it take? People are shouting from the rooftops that the sky is literally falling and the markets will collapse, yet they are not. I personally believe that TA can be used as a GUIDE to see into the mob mentality.

IMO from my limited humble experiences: whether you read tea leaves, flip a coin, use FA or TA; develop a system with a positive expectancy and stick to it.


----------



## LifeChoices (24 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> A good trader, on the other hand, knew what was going on in the Chinese construction industry, and saw a piece of news: 'copper piling up in LME'. He saw news about developers finally having to _drop_ prices. He also knew where all that Aussie coal and iron ore was going. He knew that the RBA was tightening the money supply, that no good economic news was going to come from the US, that the EU wasn't going to provide any form of good news because its an economic basket case, etc etc etc.
> When you know what the news is going to be before it happens, you know what 'market sentiment' is going to be, and in turn what the price action will be.




I'd just be happy to know on Thursday afternoon what Diggers and Drillers are going to publish on Friday.


----------



## Boggo (24 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Tech/a is ultimately, processing second hand information.



So is the meteorologist who provided the information on what the weather will be tomorrow or don't you believe that either.

Education = behaviour modified by experience.  



tothemax6 said:


> though I don't think the opposite is true (but *my maths is a little rusty*).




So is your logic


----------



## skc (24 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Thankyou for your rebuttal. If:
> Out = f(Out), then:
> Out = f(f(f(f(........infinity......Out)))))).....
> So perhaps the word I was looking for, rather than 'random' is 'indeterminate'. Although of course, if something is random it is indeterminate, though I don't think the opposite is true (but my maths is a little rusty).




Logic is still wrong.

Say I go to a fortune teller who reads tea leaves to find out what my future holds. It doesn't mean that I believe the tea leaves are input to my future. I am simply believing that the tea leaves for some reason can forecast / predict / describe with some probability my future. 

Same with technical analysis. You don't have to believe it, but you haven't disprove it with the logic you are offering.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 May 2011)

skc said:


> Logic is still wrong.
> 
> Say I go to a fortune teller who reads tea leaves to find out what my future holds. It doesn't mean that I believe the tea leaves are input to my future. I am simply believing that the tea leaves for some reason can forecast / predict / describe with some probability my future.
> 
> Same with technical analysis. You don't have to believe it, but you haven't disprove it with the logic you are offering.




Does it make any difference if the fortune teller uses "green tea leaves" or "black tea leaves"?


----------



## nulla nulla (25 May 2011)

ginar said:


> ......please those with open minds continue to explore the simple effective ways price structure can be read and used to improve returns , dont let intellectual dribble put you of . swing highs /lows , ranges , cycles of time over price can all be used extremely successfully to outperform .




Data used with risk assessment determines the merit of an entry point with an exit point already in mind. You either get it right and take a profitable trade or you get it wrong and close out at your stop loss point.




> trading of news ........ by the time you hear it ....... its priced in




Too true. How many times have you seen a price rise or drop quickly for no known reason only to see the news release hours or days after the movement. By then the news is well and truly factored in.


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## nunthewiser (25 May 2011)

LOL is all i gots to say 

sorry for low content post but some of these comments are laughable.....

it seems just because THEY cant do it ........means NO one can do it...

p.s great calls of late nun you are a true psychic


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## Gringotts Bank (25 May 2011)

It's all about the biotechs this last few weeks.  CDY VLA BNO PRR.  

Mining sector looks like it might never get its old strength back.  First time since the GFC that the oomph has gone.  Not sure where that leaves us as speculators.  Do we start buying up dud biotechs and hope that the tide carries them?


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## Gringotts Bank (25 May 2011)

4653 is a major trend line.  Currently 4671.

If there's a bounce it will be generated mainly by short covering IMO.  This may extend into a small run but feels unlikely right now.

If we don't bounce off 4653, then I think our market is going to become very very quiet!  Not a crash, just no buying, no volume.  That would make trading impossible!  So um...  let's hope it doesn't eventuate!


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## Synergy (25 May 2011)

I feel like we stretched lower today, almost reaching out to the trendline because it was in sight. We certainly under performed the rest of the world. No sign of the high volumes we saw for the March low yet though... certainly not a lot of positive mindsets around.


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## nulla nulla (25 May 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> LOL is all i gots to say
> 
> sorry for low content post but some of these comments are laughable.....
> 
> ...




Well it is a "Banter" thread and, if memory serves me correctly, you started the thread to better explain a perspective raised in the now defunct chat room. The good thing about this thread is that it hasn't been taken over by the hindsight "Elliot Wavers".


----------



## tothemax6 (25 May 2011)

nunthewiser said:


> LOL is all i gots to say
> sorry for low content post but some of these comments are laughable.....
> it seems just because THEY cant do it ........means NO one can do it...



That's fine, given a 50/50 chance there is always going to be some people who lie on the right of the distribution - and claim they can predict which way a coin will land. It's more valid to reach conclusions that are constructed from first-principles, than by selection bias.


skc said:


> Logic is still wrong.
> Say I go to a fortune teller who reads tea leaves to find out what my future holds. It doesn't mean that I believe the tea leaves are input to my future. I am simply believing that the tea leaves for some reason can forecast / predict / describe with some probability my future.
> Same with technical analysis. You don't have to believe it, but you haven't disprove it with the logic you are offering.



Well you can say I'm wrong till you are blue in the face, in every manner you choose. But a meaningless stream of text is very easy to ignore. Perhaps you could explain why my model is wrong, rather than briefly alluding to an analogy that barely fits. I'm happy to be wrong and corrected (from which I benefit), but being told I am wrong with no real reason has always indicated to me that I am probably right.


Boggo said:


> So is the meteorologist who provided the information on what the weather will be tomorrow or don't you believe that either.



Difference is, he won't have modified the weather by the time it gets to you. Perhaps think before you type.


RazzaDazzla said:


> A good trader (and blind freddy) knew that an earthquake and tsunami smashed Japan and that a Nuclear emergency was happening. They also know that USA and Euro debt is sky high! Yet look at the rally after the quake! FA did not say "this is a great time to buy!"



It did actually. Warren Buffet and Jim Rogers, the exact opposite of techies, both said 'buy, buy, buy' when the Nikkei went below 9000. Economics dictates that uncertainty increases the demand for money, and hence bidding down of prices. This is on top of any damage to the value of the equities. When the uncertainty clears, all else being equal, prices increase as the demand for money decreases. 


ginar said:


> trading of news ........ by the time you hear it ....... its priced in



And of course, those peaks and troughs of the news end up making patterns on a chart, which techies some days later then use - well after the information comes to hand. Like I said, news events occur after the economic reality has played out - indeed they are one of the biggest information lags of all. I did not say to trade on the news.


----------



## motorway (26 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> That's fine, given a 50/50 chance there is always going to be some people who lie on the right of the distribution - and claim they can predict which way a coin will land. It's more valid to reach conclusions that are constructed from first-principles, than by selection bias.




How often is the probability of a move UP equal to a move DOWN ?

And Why would it be necessary to have to predict ?

Maybe it is enough to just stay on the 







> right



 side 







> of the distribution




Motorway


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## skyQuake (26 May 2011)

motorway said:


> How often is the probability of a move UP equal to a move DOWN ?
> 
> And Why would it be necessary to have to predict ?
> 
> ...




Can you elaborate? Other than the cliched up the stairs and down the escalator part that we've all heard about, I think there is a fair bit of merit in studying the distributions.
I suppose it also differs from stock to stock


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## motorway (26 May 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Can you elaborate? Other than the cliched up the stairs and down the escalator part that we've all heard about, I think there is a fair bit of merit in studying the distributions.
> I suppose it also differs from stock to stock




check my last blog post
which is an introduction to what I think are some important aspects


esp with reference to this



> That ABOVE the Blue Line the Probability of a move UP is greater than a Move DOWN and that  UNDER The Red Line the Probability of a move DOWN is greater than a Move UP !




The Probability of moves up or down in any time frame are 50/50
But the Size of moves Up Or DOWN is not

TRENDS can persist and do persist
when defined in terms of MOVES with certain Durations
rather then Durations ( eg The Weekly Trend ) of certain moves

As I think is seen in the chart posted..

Motorway


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## cynic (26 May 2011)

tothemax6, I do enjoy reading your posts. 



tothemax6 said:


> Well you can say I'm wrong till you are blue in the face, in every manner you choose. But a meaningless stream of text is very easy to ignore. Perhaps you could explain why my model is wrong, rather than briefly alluding to an analogy that barely fits.




I've no intention of "busting a gut" doing somebody else's research for them. If fundamental analysis works for you that's great! Good for you! 

Having said that,  I would like to state that based primarily upon casual observation of market behaviour over several decades, I have come to the conclusion that technical analysis does bear some merit in predicting short and medium term market behaviours. 
It would appear that mankind is somewhat fascinated by the number zero. It seems that the price/index levels that have more trailing zeroes tend to be more likely to approximate resistance and support levels than any fundamental valuation that I've witnessed to date. 
This is evidenced by the distributions of closing levels of EOD ("End Of Day") data on popular share market indices. Anyone willing to perform an objective (and "open minded" for those of you whom fail to understand the meaning of "objective") analysis of these values will see what I mean.

At times in the past few years I have witnessed markets rising on positive interpretations of fundamentally bad events and falling on negative interpretations of fundamentally good events (and vice versa too of course!). The best theory that I can come up with to explain these phenomena is that cash resources for the majority of market participants is finite (the US might be an exception to this - they seem to be printing a lot of additional currency lately!) hence placing a limit to the extent of uptrends regardless of how many fundamentally positive events occur. For a technical analyst, upon recognising that almost everyone who wants to be in (the market) is invested, the only thing left to do is to wait for the signal to take the profits and get out! Technical analysis of volume combined with price action has often yielded clues that indicate exhaustion of the bulls versus the bears thereby presaging the advent of changes in market direction.

Of course the fundamentalists do eventually make their move and bring the market back into approximate alignment with perceived fundamentals over the longer term. That's fine for fundamentalist traders like Warren Buffet. Best of luck to anyone patient enough to follow his fine example!



> That's fine, given a 50/50 chance there is always going to be some people who lie on the right of the distribution - and claim they can predict which way a coin will land. It's more valid to reach conclusions that are constructed from first-principles, than by selection bias.




Given that the majority of market instruments by definition cannot penetrate zero and go into negative territory, one could conclude that there is a mathematical bias towards the "up" direction. This is evidenced be long, long term charts of the performance of major indices. Like humans, every listed company could be considered to have a finite lifespan and will eventually become insolvent or consumed in M&A (Merger & Acquisition) activity, suggesting that the "up" and "down" nett out. However, major indices will generally exhibit an overall positive bias over a longer timeframe, because new companies are introduced to replace those that fall by the wayside. 



> I'm happy to be wrong and corrected (from which I benefit), but being told I am wrong with no real reason has always indicated to me that I am probably right.




Are you really happy to be wrong? (My B. S. detector is registering at the top end of it's scale here! Maybe I need to invest in a new detector!)
No amount of intelligent rhetoric will ever convince me to doubt the evidence of my own eyes in relation to certain branches of technical analysis. Likewise, I'm sure that no amount of rhetoric will ever convince a fundamentalist to abandon his/her preferred style of trading.

Technical analysis has worked well enough for me and I would challenge anyone dismissive of it to take a closer look at price/volume action and market behavior in relation to the trailing zeroes!

Please no one insult my intelligence by asking me to present the proof that technical analysis can be seen to work (try proving that it doesn't!!). I'm already convinced, and much as I hate four letter acronyms DYOR!


----------



## mazzatelli (26 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Economics dictates that uncertainty increases the demand for money, and hence bidding down of prices. This is on top of any damage to the value of the equities.



 Aren't you playing for decreases in interest rates using govt bonds, where interest and yields priced into US Treasuries are near all time lows?

Or am I thinking of someone else (if so, my apologies)?


----------



## skc (26 May 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Well you can say I'm wrong till you are blue in the face, in every manner you choose. But a meaningless stream of text is very easy to ignore. Perhaps you could explain why my model is wrong, rather than briefly alluding to an analogy that barely fits.




Let me paraphrase your logic.

1. Chartists use historical prices to predict/guess future prices.
2. Chartists think that historical prices _determine _future prices.
3. If historical prices determine future prices, future prices are indeterminate (as output is the input).

Point 1 is a fact and is true. Point 3 is also true. Point 2 however is your assertion, and it is incorrect. As I said, chartists use historical prices as proxy to see fundamental information that affects future prices. It doesn't mean that they think future prices are determined by historical prices.

The analogy I gave used the same logic as you.

1. Fortune tellers use tealeaves to predict the future.
2. Fortune tellers think that tealeaves _determine _the future.
3. If the future is determined by tea leaves, we are in interesting times.

Now, should I point out how this is also wrong in terms of logic?!



tothemax6 said:


> ...being told I am wrong with no real reason has always indicated to me that I am probably right.


----------



## Russell (27 May 2011)

I am quite new to the stock market, so my comments will no doubt seem naive. 

Wouldn't it be better to use aspects of both FA and TA when choosing what stocks to buy? It would seem like you are missing out on a wealth of information if you just choose one or another.

Surely both Analysis techniques have a place in what we do? Like I said earlier, I am not educated enough (yet) to know. 

Apologies if this has been covered previously.


----------



## ginar (27 May 2011)

Russell said:


> I am quite new to the stock market, so my comments will no doubt seem naive.
> 
> Wouldn't it be better to use aspects of both FA and TA when choosing what stocks to buy? It would seem like you are missing out on a wealth of information if you just choose one or another.
> 
> ...




absolutely correct russell .


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 May 2011)

Regarding charting;  I believe past performance is an excellent predictor of future performance. Look at sport for eg.

Collingwood has won all but one game this year in the AFL and sits second on the ladder.  It would be a sound bet that it will win _at least one more game_ this year (such a sound bet that no one would offer you odds).  This is all based on _past performance_.  If their past performance this year to date had been abysmal and they sat at the bottom of the ladder, everyone knows that the odds change, and rightly so.  Sports clubs, like public companies tend to continue in the direction they are headed.  Shocks and upsets can happen, but momentum (which is calculated from past data) has actually been scientifically shown to be a good predictor of future returns on the stock market.  Google it!


----------



## Boggo (27 May 2011)

Russell said:


> Wouldn't it be better to use aspects of both FA and TA when choosing what stocks to buy? It would seem like you are missing out on a wealth of information if you just choose one or another.
> 
> Surely both Analysis techniques have a place in what we do?




Quite correct Russell.
Listening to our so called investment etc gurus is fraught with danger, they all have agendas be it personal or company orientated.
Currently TLS, TIM etc, past Onetel and many more around that period. If you read the stuff that is/was churned out by spin doctors then you will be mislead.

Applying a bit of technical analysis and pattern behaviour to most stocks will often validate the reports or highlight and flag the nonsense.

Below is one of many examples I have collected over time provides a good example where one of our major investment organisations should spend a bit more time on technical analysis and a little less on advertising.

The stock chart extract is ILU and the period is where they were selling (why would they buy some as well I wonder   ), now look at where that stock price is today, brilliant bit of work on behalf of their trusting clients eh.


----------



## tothemax6 (28 May 2011)

cynic said:


> The best theory that I can come up with to explain these phenomena is that cash resources for the majority of market participants is finite (the US might be an exception to this - they seem to be printing a lot of additional currency lately!) hence placing a limit to the extent of uptrends regardless of how many fundamentally positive events occur. For a technical analyst, upon recognising that almost everyone who wants to be in (the market) is invested, the only thing left to do is to wait for the signal to take the profits and get out! Technical analysis of volume combined with price action has often yielded clues that indicate exhaustion of the bulls versus the bears thereby presaging the advent of changes in market direction.



Interesting, thanks for that. I have finally received some explanation of technical analysis which ties in economic reality.


cynic said:


> Are you really happy to be wrong? (My B. S. detector is registering at the top end of it's scale here! Maybe I need to invest in a new detector!)



I am happier to be right, sure. But if one cannot enjoy being corrected, and learning from ones mistakes, what is the point in argument anyway?


----------



## Russell (31 May 2011)

I wonder if the XAO will end up opening higher this morning as predicted?


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## Gringotts Bank (1 June 2011)

Aus economic growth worst in 20 years I read today.

You can feel it.  The mother of all downturns on its way.  Oh well.  Best I leave the day trading and concentrate on work.  I can't see any opportunities appearing in the short or medium term.  Maybe a few bio's will do ok.


----------



## sammy84 (2 June 2011)

Anyone got any opinions on todays move?

I was expecting the bounce to go a little longer. Strength seemed to have return in the last few days prior with a pick in volume and good price action in many stocks. The US is showing the opposite though.


----------



## stacks (2 June 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Anyone got any opinions on todays move?
> 
> I was expecting the bounce to go a little longer. Strength seemed to have return in the last few days prior with a pick in volume and good price action in many stocks. The US is showing the opposite though.




Given good retail and reasonable trade surplus figures domestically, has been a fair roll down today. But given the data to come out of the US yesterday and their resulting slide, it seems Australias ties to the performance of the US market is still rock solid.


----------



## tinhat (3 June 2011)

I declared myself fully invested in the FGE stock thread yesterday. At the open today I put a sell order in for a parcel of WOW which went through at $27.15 So, I've got a bit of spare cash to go and hunt for better opportunities. Can someone please call the bottom of this current correction at the appropriate time? I've got a swag of stocks on my short list. I am and plan to remain short of my position in the market prior to when my trailing stop losses kicked in during the tsunami.


----------



## tothemax6 (3 June 2011)

tinhat said:


> Can someone please call the bottom of this current correction at the appropriate time?



People 'call the bottom all the time. Someone here said a few days ago 'time to throw in everything you've got', and then we took another hit.

I don't see what is there to give support to equities at the moment. Our chief economic driver so far has been commodity demand (mainly minerals) from the north, and China is looking like it is going to have a big correction when its construction bubble bursts. The US is a lame dog, the Euro is a basket case, and Japan is and has been for some time - very mediocre in its prospects.

What does that leave? At least with other countries, they are printing money like lunatics, adding support to asset prices, to hell with inflation targets. In Australia we are actually tightening the money supply to curtail inflation.

There are other assets than stocks, which asset class to be in should be decided first, and only then if stocks are decided upon - which stocks to buy should be decided.


----------



## Broadway (3 June 2011)

"Can someone please call the bottom of this current correction at the appropriate time?"



tothemax6 said:


> People 'call the bottom all the time. Someone here said a few days ago 'time to throw in everything you've got', and then we took another hit.
> 
> I don't see what is there to give support to equities at the moment. Our chief economic driver so far has been commodity demand (mainly minerals) from the north, and China is looking like it is going to have a big correction when its construction bubble bursts. The US is a lame dog, the Euro is a basket case, and Japan is and has been for some time - very mediocre in its prospects.
> 
> ...




Yea, but there are short term multiday swings in the market that have nothing to do with fundamentals. I like volume in u.s. metal, energy and material etfs as well as commodity currencies to tell me where swing bottoms are. One of my favs is SLX, a steel based us etf, but i look at alot of etfs. Bottoms arent easy, and sometimes take days to come good, and there will always be 1 more test down to shake out tight stops. And then some will say reversals are too hard, and best just to join a trend (like gold) because the odds are it will eventually keep going in that same direction. good luck.


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## Synergy (3 June 2011)

Back down onto support today. We bounced quite strongly up off this line last week. Lower from here and I'm concerned.


----------



## LifeChoices (3 June 2011)

Banter thread right?

Just thinking tonight, if only I did this.


----------



## ginar (3 June 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Banter thread right?
> 
> Just thinking tonight, if only I did this.
> 
> View attachment 43147




some actually did that . wasnt that hard


----------



## LifeChoices (3 June 2011)

ginar said:


> some actually did that . wasnt that hard




Pictures or it didn't happen


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## Muschu (3 June 2011)

ginar said:


> some actually did that . wasnt that hard




Like your expertise......  Anyone able to accurately predict this market is a guru ...

Want to tell us the future please? Six months will do.

Regards

Rick


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## Kryzz (3 June 2011)

Still looks like it's on the road to nowhere longer term (nb:XJO attached), Gold FTW.


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## cynic (4 June 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Interesting, thanks for that. I have finally received some explanation of technical analysis which ties in economic reality.




Yes, some areas of Technical Analysis do appear to have an underlying relationship to reality (fundamental, economic or behavioural). 



tothemax6 said:


> I am happier to be right, sure. But if one cannot enjoy being corrected, and learning from ones mistakes, what is the point in argument anyway?




Thanks for that. I've had my B.S. detector recalibrated and I am happy to report that it is now registering at the bottom end of the scale. This would indicate sincerity. Apologies for any inconvenience that previous reading may have caused.

I look forward to reading more of your posts.


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## nulla nulla (4 June 2011)

*Re: XAO Banter Thread - From the frying pan to the fire*

Finances dragging the xao down as the markets worry about the flow on costs of finance if Greece defaults or isn't bailed out. The U.S spin doctors are working overtime to justify lifting their debt ceiling and decide whether or not to go to Q3 and speed up the printing presses. 

The international rating agencies have finaly realised, after 20 years, that the Australian Mortgage market uses overseas funds and although the ratio has been reduced since the nadir of the gfc, the agencies think the practise risky. They have reduced the bank ratings. 

The Hedge funds think Australia has a "Ninja" mortgage exposure like the one that caused the U.S. property market bubble to burst. They don't see the fact that, unemployment in Australia is less than 5%, makes any difference. What do they care. They can make money pushing our market down then pushing it back up again.

The Australian economy has minimal links to the U.S and European economies but if overseas money see's a risk here, they pull their money and.....wait for it...buy U.S$. Talk about jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 June 2011)

Charlie is right.



> Don’t Try to Predict the Future
> 
> I used to think that there were experts and geniuses out there who knew what was going to happen in the markets. I thought that these traders and market gurus were successful because they had figured out how to predict the markets. Of course, the obvious question is that if they were such good traders, and if they knew where the market was going, why were they teaching trading techniques, selling strategies and indicators, and writing newsletters? Why weren’t they rich? Why weren’t they flying to the seminars on their Lear Jets?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 June 2011)

There's about 6 stocks that have gained 5+% for the day!  This is the worst out market has looked since the start of 2008.  

The sentiment is actually worse in a way.  Back in 2008 it was panic, now it's more like resignation/depression "here we go again".  Panic usually creates strong rebound, so at least you can try to pick the bottom and get on.  Resignation/depression is a much more damaging sentiment.  Right now it feels like a slow drawn out death that's going to last years and years!  Cold, dark years!  The tipping point was in May I guess, but signs were present in that March rally.

These are the sort of conditions discount brokers dread.  Their trade volumes will be way down.  

And now for the good news...


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## Boggo (6 June 2011)

Boggo said:


> Seems to be an area of attraction/support in the mid to low 4600's if the 16th May low gets taken out.




Predicted target met today, where to from here 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461&p=634866&viewfull=1#post634866


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## blue0810 (11 June 2011)

SPX/DJI/nasdaq all  in red last nigth.

XAO become  very ugly.  Next week if still falling I have to sell my index ETF
i haven't short the market , but looks like short   is game to ply in near the future
Good luck long term gurus.


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## sammy84 (14 June 2011)

Short covering on Financials?

Noticed last night that there was bullish divergence on the 10 day advance/decline. Today is quite a strong trending day. Short term bounce seems on.


----------



## Logique (14 June 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Short covering on Financials?
> Noticed last night that there was bullish divergence on the 10 day advance/decline. Today is quite a strong trending day. Short term bounce seems on.



The Futures say up tomorrow. As I write the UK FTSE100 is up 0.7%.


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## tothemax6 (15 June 2011)

Logique said:


> The Futures say up tomorrow. As I write the UK FTSE100 is up 0.7%.



Just for the record the futures lied


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## sammy84 (15 June 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Just for the record the futures lied




Futures market didn't lie. The XAO just didn't correspond.


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## cynic (15 June 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Futures market didn't lie. The XAO just didn't correspond.




They may not have lied, but my astrologer has been making more accurate predictions regarding the future lately!


----------



## Logique (16 June 2011)

https://encrypted.google.com/url?sa..._fSdAw&usg=AFQjCNEriXlJixskhg7_-MwdR0oxacRmvA  - _Money Week_


> How the death cross can tell you when to get out of the market - By Dominic Frisby Jun 30, 2010
> 
> ..What is a 'death cross'?  First, I'll explain what it a 'death cross' actually is.
> 
> ...


----------



## nulla nulla (16 June 2011)

Okay, so today clipped 88 off the xao and we broke through all pretence of support levels. 

"The Greeks shall inherit the Earth" seems to be being taken literaly by the Greeks and they think it should be free. The rest of the world seems to be having a problem explaining that it is "The Meek shall inherit the Earth" to the Greeks and they are not having a bar of it. Accordingly the world markets are in decline. If the Greeks aren't going to pay why should anyone else. Anarchy and chaos here we come.




If it doesn't bounce from here, the next support level is 4350 followed by 4250. After that it is anyones guess.


----------



## Country Lad (16 June 2011)

> ..What is a 'death cross'? First, I'll explain what it a 'death cross' actually is.
> 
> The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) shows the average price over the last two hundred days. The 50-day moving average (50 DMA) does the same but for the last 50 days.
> 
> When the 200-day moving average is sloping down and the 50-day moving average crosses down through it, you have your 'death cross'..




Sounds good and no doubt the inexperienced will grasp it without much research.  Looking at its past performance it is well named because you are just about dead by the time they cross.  Very much a lagging indicator.

No doubt many of us who have been trading for a long time have been trying to find the holy grail in our spare time to find the signals when we should go long or go short on the market.  

tech/a no doubt has some technical systems, others will have their own.  I have a very low tech one based on a number market stats and capturing what I consider a measure of sentiment. It gives me an indication when to be more vigilant.

So far I am reasonably happy with mine which took only 20 years to develop and tweak. This time it saw my risk management tighten up 12 April and exit a number of stocks as the stops were hit, plus shorting the index beginning of May as a hedge for the long term high dividend yielding investment shares.

My only comment after years of trying various systems is that the ones that don’t really work are the ones you hear about like the “death cross”.  Some of my trading buddies have their own system (each quite different) which, like mine, are all worthwhile as an indicator for a change and a signal to take more care.  That is probably the best you can ever expect – except maybe for a well functioning crystal ball.

The chart is the All Ords with my system's long and short points.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## skc (16 June 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Okay, so today clipped 88 off the xao and we broke through all pretence of support levels.
> 
> "The Greeks shall inherit the Earth" seems to be being taken literaly by the Greeks and they think it should be free. The rest of the world seems to be having a problem explaining that it is "The Meek shall inherit the Earth" to the Greeks and they are not having a bar of it. Accordingly the world markets are in decline. If the Greeks aren't going to pay why should anyone else. Anarchy and chaos here we come.




The day Greek defaults will be the day that markets bounce imo.

Until we start hearing rumbles of Ireland or Spain debt again.


----------



## LifeChoices (16 June 2011)

I just read the Buy with Open Arms thread again to cheer myself up.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19222

I don't know what it is, but over this past month I get out of bed in the morning and always drink from that same half empty glass again. I'm filling it up to the top tonight.


----------



## Julia (16 June 2011)

skc said:


> The day Greek defaults will be the day that markets bounce imo.
> 
> Until we start hearing rumbles of Ireland or Spain debt again.



Why do you think a Greek default will prompt markets to bounce?


----------



## skc (16 June 2011)

Julia said:


> Why do you think a Greek default will prompt markets to bounce?




Here's a slightly dated article (Apr 2010) on lessons from the Russian default.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18874.html




Note the 2-day rally on news of actual default announcement. However the bounce was short lived and other contagion crisis (for Russia it was Brazil then LTCM) quickly followed.

Greek default on its own shouldn't be a systemic collapse, but people will soon start to panic about the rest of the PIIGS - and market seems to be more interconnected and moves faster these days...

So history may or may not repeat itself.


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## Logique (17 June 2011)

> Looking at its past performance it is well named because you are just about dead by the time they cross. Very much a lagging indicator.



It saved punters a skip load of money in 2008! And the subsequent golden cross brought them back at a pretty good time. 
http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/how-to-invest/death-cross-stock-market-indicator-02609  - How the death cross can tell you when to get out of the market By Dominic Frisby - Jun 30, 2010


> ..It's not much use for day-traders, but it has proved a reliable indicator for those who look at the intermediate term. So-called 'trend-followers' particularly like it. It won't catch bottoms or tops, but it helps catch the major part of a move..


----------



## tothemax6 (18 June 2011)

Out of interest does anyone know why it is that the Greek debt problems are _now_ in the forefront? The debt has been impossible to repay for a while now. What is it that forces this particular issue into the media forefront _now_? 
I entirely expect that the news will drift off somewhere else after this, and then it will drift back to Europe etc etc. I get the feeling I should just turn off all news sources - it is probably a distorting effect on ones analysis.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 June 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Out of interest does anyone know why it is that the Greek debt problems are _now_ in the forefront? The debt has been impossible to repay for a while now. What is it that forces this particular issue into the media forefront _now_?



It's almost like an orchestrated squeeze on the financial markets to shake money free from investors/traders. Any excuse will do. The US stock market has kept grinding upwards since March 2009 while we are told there is high unemployment and massive debt. The whole system lives a lie.


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## cynic (18 June 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> The whole system lives a lie.




What's this I hear?  Lies? !!

Surely not! So many traders keep assuring me that the market is always right!

Having said this I cannot help but wonder, if the market is always right then why does it keep having corrections?


----------



## cynic (18 June 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Out of interest does anyone know why it is that the Greek debt problems are _now_ in the forefront? The debt has been impossible to repay for a while now. What is it that forces this particular issue into the media forefront _now_?
> I entirely expect that the news will drift off somewhere else after this, and then it will drift back to Europe etc etc.




Don't worry! 

There'll be a new global financial scapegoat elected very soon. 

The latest rumour is that Italy is shortly to be bestowed this honour!


----------



## mr. jeff (18 June 2011)

cynic said:


> What's this I hear?  Lies? !!
> 
> Surely not! So many traders keep assuring me that the market is always right!
> 
> Having said this I cannot help but wonder, if the market is always right then why does it keep having corrections?




The market is always right, but sometimes it is more right than other times.


----------



## Country Lad (18 June 2011)

Logique said:


> It saved punters a skip load of money in 2008! And the subsequent golden cross brought them back at a pretty good time.




I am not saying it is not useful for people without other ways to judge the market, but most experienced people would have been out long before as stops were hit.  The crosses  were at a point 20% below the high and 20% above the low which for me is a little late.  I assume most people will have their own system ringing the bell a lot earlier than 20%.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## whitefang (18 June 2011)

Country Lad said:


> I am not saying it is not useful for people without other ways to judge the market, but most experienced people would have been out long before as stops were hit.  The crosses  were at a point 20% below the high and 20% above the low which for me is a little late.  I assume most people will have their own system ringing the bell a lot earlier than 20%.
> 
> True, but there might be some others that take a (very) long view, have a buy-and-hold strategy, can take a 20% correction but don't want to see their portfolio being dragged in a crash of 50%. I suspect they may still be in a better position if they exit at 20% down and re-enter at 20% up...
> 
> cheers,


----------



## Country Lad (18 June 2011)

whitefang said:


> Country Lad said:
> 
> 
> > I am not saying it is not useful for people without other ways to judge the market, but most experienced people would have been out long before as stops were hit.  The crosses  were at a point 20% below the high and 20% above the low which for me is a little late.  I assume most people will have their own system ringing the bell a lot earlier than 20%.
> ...




Sorry, I don't see the logic in accepting an indicator which is at best lagging when a far better one can be developed, or even better ones are around.

I certainly can not see the logic where you have a very long view buy-and-hold strategy and then sell (and quite happy to wait for a 20% loss before selling). Doesn't make sense to me.

Lets have a look at the last 3 crosses of the so called golden cross with a more readable scale than Logique's chart. The first one triggers pretty well near the bottom, the second one a bit more than halfway through the upturn and the third one has even now not quite triggered the downturn.

By all means defend the "golden cross" and use it as you wish.  All I am saying is that I am not happy using something at this level of mediocrity compared to alternatives.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Logique (24 June 2011)

No problem with that. Use all tools at your disposal.  You don't have to wait until the lines cross.

The XAO is still holding in the down channel. It's starting to feel like 2008 to me, nowhere to earn a dollar, even gold and silver fell last night.  Interesting times indeed, could the dreaded double dip be around the corner.


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## Boggo (26 June 2011)

An interesting pattern playing out on the DOW since beginning of July 2010, similiar to the pattern between March 2009 and April 2010.
Next leg up not far off ?

(click to expand)


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## LifeChoices (30 July 2011)

Boggo said:


> An interesting pattern playing out on the DOW since beginning of July 2010, similiar to the pattern between March 2009 and April 2010.
> Next leg up not far off ?
> 
> (click to expand)




Very interesting - it always is, with hindsight,

So what low point is your crazy triangle pointing to in late August 2011.

I've got a *gut feeling* the bottom is 4000 - what are your triangles telling you about this one, Pythagoras?

No right or wrong answers here  - it's just the banter thread.


----------



## Ves (30 July 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> Very interesting - it always is, with hindsight,
> 
> So what low point is your crazy triangle pointing to in late August 2011.
> 
> ...



Isn't Elliot Wave more about scrapping as many of the thousands of "possibilites" and being aware of the most probable scenarios rather than picking a number (ie. predicting the future)?


----------



## sammy84 (3 August 2011)

I'm 70% in cash atm. I am struggling to read this market. Price action overnight and today would seem to indicate that a primary downtrend is in place. I'll post up charts later.

Would love to knows other's opinions though.


----------



## skc (3 August 2011)

sammy84 said:


> I'm 70% in cash atm. I am struggling to read this market. Price action overnight and today would seem to indicate that a primary downtrend is in place. I'll post up charts later.
> 
> Would love to knows other's opinions though.




The NFP on Friday in the US will be a key... Bloomberg showing a consensus figure of 75,000 for July. I find it difficult to believe that businesses were more confident in July than June when that figure was only 18,000.

I see a 2-3 day consolidation followed by capitulation on Friday if those NFP figures were bad...this should bring us to ~1200 which is support back in March 2010. We will probably see a long wick on the spike down (to 1180?) but a firmer close, concluding the immediate down swing (imo).




The scary thing for me is that the S&P is down only 9% from recent highs...

And to those who complains about how we follow the US like lemmings... well, we do!


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## nulla nulla (3 August 2011)

Nah, running a much tighter spread than the djia.  When the djia reached for 13,000 we stalled at 5100, twice, and have drifted down to the 4500 range while the djia has vasilated in the 12,000 - 12,500 range. If we were following the djia on the euphoric optimism we would have topped 6500.

With the djia correction yesterday of 240 we only dropped 100 to the 4400 area, most of which was knee jerk. Big mining and finance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dead cat bounce tonight/tomorrow followed by a leveling off. I expect to see more money shifting to those shares with ta/fa strength particularly the ones with franking credits.


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## nulla nulla (5 August 2011)

We continued our downslide yesterday even though the djia stopped it's fall. 

The djia dropped 512 last night as panic hit the world markets. 

One reporter, in a live cross to wall street, indicated that there was a belief that the computerised "robot" trading systems were exagerating the negative sentiment/trades.

We will drop like a brick off a cliff today. It will be interesting to see if there is any rebound in the U.S tonight or whether the fall continues.


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## drsmith (5 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> One reporter, in a live cross to wall street, indicated that there was a belief that the computerised "robot" trading systems were exagerating the negative sentiment/trades.



Not time to buy yet.


----------



## nulla nulla (5 August 2011)

Right now, 10:00pm Australian Eastern time, the FTSE is down 2.2% and the DAX is down 1.8% (per yahoo finance which might be delayed). 

This doesn't bode well for the djia when it opens and the xao for monday. Panic is like a virus, highly contagious and takes a bit of getting over.  I still think the XAO was oversold today but that won't stop it from being even more oversold on Monday.


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## skc (5 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Right now, 10:00pm Australian Eastern time, the FTSE is down 2.2% and the DAX is down 1.8% (per yahoo finance which might be delayed).
> 
> This doesn't bode well for the djia when it opens and the xao for monday. Panic is like a virus, highly contagious and takes a bit of getting over.  I still think the XAO was oversold today but that won't stop it from being even more oversold on Monday.




Things are just fluctuating 0.2 to 0.5% range at the moment, with everyone a little bit frozen waiting for the 10:30pm employment figures. The US futures actually not looking that bad. S&P futures at 1198 having touched a low of 1185 or so.

There will probably be a small rebound if the numbers are only as bad as consensus.


----------



## skyQuake (5 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Right now, 10:00pm Australian Eastern time, the FTSE is down 2.2% and the DAX is down 1.8% (per yahoo finance which might be delayed).
> 
> This doesn't bode well for the djia when it opens and the xao for monday. Panic is like a virus, highly contagious and takes a bit of getting over.  I still think the XAO was oversold today but that won't stop it from being even more oversold on Monday.




The eurozone is having its own bloodbath. Instead of 1 big day like the US and AU, they get to have it broken down into 2 days. 

Aussie futs only down -0.5% atm. A few things have rallied to green in UK. So not all is lost


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## drsmith (5 August 2011)

Markets like the US jobs data,

http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2120649.html

It will be interesting to see how long it lasts.


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## skc (6 August 2011)

drsmith said:


> Markets like the US jobs data,
> 
> http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2120649.html
> 
> It will be interesting to see how long it lasts.




Exactly 1 hour :crap:


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## nulla nulla (6 August 2011)

FTSE & DAX closed down 2.7%;
djia closed up 60.93; and 
Nasdaq down  23.98. 

I anticpate xao will be flat on Monday waiting for further lead from the international markets on Monday night.


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## Solitus (6 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> FTSE & DAX closed down 2.7%;
> djia closed up 60.93; and
> Nasdaq down  23.98.
> 
> I anticpate xao will be flat on Monday waiting for further lead from the international markets on Monday night.




Would that be "lead" like the thing you walk a dog with, or "lead" like the stuff bullets are made of?


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## skyQuake (6 August 2011)

It seemed like a decent open for AU... until the S&P downgraded US debt after mkt close.
To be fair it was partially expected so I don't think there will be much carnage.


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## skc (6 August 2011)

skyQuake said:


> It seemed like a decent open for AU... until the S&P downgraded US debt after mkt close.
> To be fair it was partially expected so I don't think there will be much carnage.




Normally with a 3% reversal day on the US I would bet the market going up on Monday. But I think the market wouldn't quite know what to think of the downgrade. 

While the downgrade is not unexpected no one quite sure what the consequences are.


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## nulla nulla (7 August 2011)

Solitus said:


> Would that be "lead" like the thing you walk a dog with, or "lead" like the stuff bullets are made of?




At the time i made the post i was using "lead" in the sense of guidance (lead the dog). However the downgrade came out afterwards and now i susped "lead" as in lead balloon is more appropriate. 

Biggest problem for our market will be in the finance sector where superannuant companies and banks were required to hold AAA rating investments. Their AAA rating invesments are now only AA+. 

Expect the worst and be happy if it isn't as bad as you expected.


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## grandia3 (9 August 2011)

seems like we will get slaughtered again tomorrow 
following the lead of ALL overseas markets?


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## Wysiwyg (16 August 2011)

Strong sell off of stocks this afternoon.


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## Wysiwyg (17 August 2011)

Looks to be at a decision point for bounce holders and long term holders at this level. Rose coloured glasses are in demand, thinking the worst is over. The swing from pessimism to optimism.


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## Wysiwyg (19 August 2011)

And now (well this morning on open anyway) further correction to manifest. I have some low and even lower again orders at technical boundaries but gee it's hard to think positive during the falls.


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## blue0810 (19 August 2011)

Ugly … Keep calm.  US market are tanking !!  .So far spx /dji/nasdaq   - 4%
They are  recovering from their lows.


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## tech/a (19 August 2011)

Price action is as expected.
Wave 4 correction stalled and there was a short period of consolidation.
I suspect this was distribution as those who are astute
Sold into those who are smart--- buying bargains!!!!

The problem that now occurs is that if stocks fall to the level of " bargain" buying level those who were smart may well be smarter and dump their holdings.

Personally I expect this to be the impulse move towards the low of wave 5 
But will take a while to get there,

I will be very surprised if we see the sort of strength after open that we have seen before.

Most weren't expecting this--- it WAS all over!

But with economics un changed there is a whole world of ostrich's trading.


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## nulla nulla (19 August 2011)

Volumes pushing the prices down are reputedly low. Volumes that pushed the prices up (other than tls) were not huge either. I suspect that a lot of people sold into the bounce (smart selling to the smart) and traded the bounce.

The djia was down 570 at some point during the night but pulled back 150 or so points to close down 420. Is anyone expecting another midday recovery or are we going to test the support levels around 3800 again?


----------



## sinner (19 August 2011)

That's a pretty tight range building into the second half of the day, XJO 3 min chart.




Any thoughts on whether this will continue into the close? Might bode pretty poorly for the Monday open if so.


----------



## tech/a (19 August 2011)

sinner said:


> That's a pretty tight range building into the second half of the day, XJO 3 min chart.
> 
> View attachment 44129
> 
> ...




Currently this indicates that most of those who wanted out got out at open.
Those that waited for the buying frenzy are taking what they can get everytime price advances hence the range.
I just noticed a spike in the SPI to 4123 which got sold off harder and faster than it developed.

Personally I think there are a lot of people trading or more so *INVESTING *on hope.
I think buyers in abundance will leave this and most markets for sometime.

So indexes arent going to look pretty.
Sell the corrections.


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## Wysiwyg (19 August 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Volumes pushing the prices down are reputedly low. Volumes that pushed the prices up (other than tls) were not huge either.



Yes on my watchlist the losses were small and a stock I had on order to buy dropped a measly 1.39%  on low volume. I was like way lower than that at 25% dump zone. Cheeky bugger hey. 

The sell off is continuing O.S. tonight so we might see some local holders stretched next week.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 August 2011)

Had trouble overcoming resistance today.  I reckon -30 tomorrow (4240).  Nothing much looking tasty at close.  Might get some VBA at open tomorrow if it opens at 26.5 or 27.


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## nulla nulla (25 August 2011)

Reporting season is upon us and the market inconcistancies that go with it. The market darlings jump on irrational exuberance and the unloved get sold off faster then last months fashions at discounted prices. 
Some good oportunities opening up in the period between performance reporting and going ex-div, for the stout hearted (or mad). The volatility certainly makes for some quick turnovers.


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## Wysiwyg (25 August 2011)

Damn hard to get a riser in this weather. Took the break even option twice, two small losses and one small winner (BBG bounce) since Monday. Definitely sellers jumping any rises.


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 August 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> My low cost averaging / buy and build experience was somewhat painful, and i feel that pain helped motivate me to maintain discipline and keep buying the lows....i entered the market in 2007 just before the first warning market dip in July/august at arguably the worst possible time.



You don't consider selling everything at the market tops and buying again at around the lows using the same strategy?


----------



## VSntchr (29 August 2011)

Very strong rise this morning...wonder how it will go this afternoon...
I was expecting falls this week...so far the opposite is true.


----------



## Logique (15 September 2011)

Yesterday on the XAO was one of the most disappointing days I can remember. When we could reasonably have expected a solid or slightly positive day, instead market participants turned tail and the XAO finished down -1.6%.

Now we see the S&P 500 up +1.35% overnight (third daily gain in a row) to 1188, or +3% on the week. Also the FTSE 100 again up overnight, and nearly +2% on the week.

Serves the kneejerk shorts, and the 'gloom and doom' crowd right. The above three indices as a group, if the shorts can read a weekly chart, they ought to be nervous.


----------



## nomore4s (15 September 2011)

Logique said:


> Yesterday on the XAO was one of the most disappointing days I can remember. When we could reasonably have expected a solid or slightly positive day, instead market participants turned tail and the XAO finished down -1.6%.
> 
> Now we see the S&P 500 up +1.35% overnight (third daily gain in a row) to 1188, or +3% on the week. Also the FTSE 100 again up overnight, and nearly +2% on the week.
> 
> Serves the kneejerk shorts, and the 'gloom and doom' crowd right. The above three indices as a group, if the shorts can read a weekly chart, they ought to be nervous.




Mate it wasn't a knee jerk reaction by anyone including doom & gloom crowd, shorts or whatever. All markets that were open during our market hours got smashed during that time - Oil, Asia, AUD.
As an example HSI lost around 680 points from open till around 4pm, but when our market closed it put on 500 points, so whatever caused the markets to rise in the US last night started filtering through at around 4-4:30pm.

It is just the way the markets work.

The real question is - do we play catch up today or do we fade again?


----------



## Logique (16 September 2011)

Cheers nomore4s,
I've calmed down now. Some follow through since, but conviction is a scarce commodity on markets atm.


----------



## Logique (21 September 2011)

Tell me the XAO isn't going to revisit 3500. Tell me LYC isn't going to test 1.00. Fans of big bank shares will be licking their lips too. When I think that at the start of 2009, somebody bought CBA shares for $25, then saw it run to $60 in 2010, plus the franked dividends along the way!

Such strong momentum, will require something momentous to turn it around.  Even with the newly crowned 'Worlds Best Treasurer' at the desk.


----------



## Logique (23 September 2011)

11:30am:
-XAO - down 60
-LYC - down .03
EU and the US were pretty ordinary overnight, so a brave opening this morning for the All Ords and Lynas, well off the early lows, so buyers haven't disappeared completely.


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 September 2011)

Positive to negative territory from 10.40 today. Taking out after small gains due to real or unreal fear? 
Risk .... lol.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (7 October 2011)

A brief rally before the established downtrend continues? Or sign of things starting to turn up?

It still amuses me on a daily (even hourly) basis of the markets reaction or lack of reaction to 'key' statements from leaders and other talking heads.


----------



## Logique (9 October 2011)

ABC 'Inside Business' this morning was the most optimistic, even bullish, for quite some time.

But never fear, the Radio National collective will be back in the morning, and _'..but for how long..'_ will be back in play.  Beastly capitalism.


----------



## Struzball (9 October 2011)

We must be due for some panic buying.


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 October 2011)

Logique said:


> ABC 'Inside Business' this morning was the most optimistic, even bullish, for quite some time.



Television advertising over last month in Queensland encouraging people to participate in Australia's mining boom. Sniff a market low???????



> Premier Anna Bligh is urging Queenslanders to find out about the jobs available in the resources boom and to plug into the training they need to get them.
> 
> A series of new advertisements, starting today, will urge Queenslanders to find out more information about the opportunities available to them and point them to courses and skills training to help them get jobs in the industry.
> 
> "The Work for Queensland - we need you here ads are specifically design to help Queenslanders grab a piece of the boom in the mining and gas industries," said the Premier.



 Oh wait ..... Asian resource demand is declining.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2011)

Long upper wick very suggestive of a short term top today.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2011)

So much for the long wick.  Still holding to see what overnight in the US brings.  Finger on the sell button.  What's eveyone else doin?


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2011)

Think its getting close to a pull back.
from there we will see if volatility stalls and we see sideways lack luster
price movement.
Im not buying "Bargains" if thats what your after!


----------



## sinner (10 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> So much for the long wick.  Still holding to see what overnight in the US brings.  Finger on the sell button.  What's eveyone else doin?




Looking at the Australian sovereign yield curve since June 12...scary.

AUD 3m LIBOR: 4.841%
Australian Govt Bonds Generic 10y: 4.298%

Spot the inversion ....oh wait, it's everywhere!


----------



## Struzball (10 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> Think its getting close to a pull back.
> from there we will see if volatility stalls and we see sideways lack luster
> price movement.
> Im not buying "Bargains" if thats what your after!




I think we're past the bargain buying, next step I believe will be panic buying, followed by panic selling, Either way, the upside gains won't be worth the downside risk.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2011)

Struzball said:


> I think we're past the bargain buying, next step I believe will be panic buying, followed by panic selling, Either way, the upside gains won't be worth the downside risk.




So you would you have suggested buying ----- when?


----------



## Struzball (10 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> So you would you have suggested buying ----- when?




A bit of a strange question.  I don't think I have suggested buying lately, unless you want to profit from the counter-tred rally's, and if you do I'd suggest buy the dips and sell the highs, but then that's a bit useless in retrospect.

I don't think that strategy will work too well from here on though.


----------



## tech/a (10 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> So you would you have suggested buying ----- when?




I'll re phrase the question
Your suggestion is we are" past the bargain buying"
Just wondering where that was if we are past It?


----------



## Struzball (11 October 2011)

tech/a said:


> I'll re phrase the question
> Your suggestion is we are" past the bargain buying"
> Just wondering where that was if we are past It?




Oh, the bargain buying stage is the falling knife stage.
i.e. whenever there is an up day in a solid down trend the media puts this down to "bargain hunters" buying up "bargains".

True bargains - value wise, IMO haven't presented yet.

edit: Some good panic buying in EU and US last night.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2011)

A little more upside on the cards yet.  Moderate sized bounce on Wall St tonight.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2011)

I'm guessing that's all there is to this run.  Trading specs at the moment is like trying to get blood out of a stone.  Hating it.


----------



## Logique (19 October 2011)

Yes blood from a stone, a good description for the whole market atm GB.
CDNX:SPX is closing in on 1.2, not much sign of turnaround on weekly.


----------



## howmanyru (19 October 2011)

Does anyone see the rally of the past few days as a major turning point for the XAO? I don't and am not buying into it. The fundamental reasons why the market is falling still exist & I see this as a blip on the way down - think we have a way to go yet before we see the bottom. It may get pumped up for a while on goobledook talk from the pollies & bankers, but that wont change the economic realities we live in today.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 October 2011)

Well done logique, I wasn't expecting this today.  If XAO can cross 4340, it's almost back to a bull market conditions.  Still bound within a down sloping channel at present.  Getting interesting.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 November 2011)

A lot of continuation type patterns in the spec end.

NST ABU BRU PIR VBA SXY AZH etc. are showing very tight convergence of multiple MA's.   That's bullish.


----------



## Logique (15 November 2011)

In that regard the $CDNX is looking more encouraging GB. The attached chart is on weekly data, look at that MACD cross. Would like the Bollie Bands to be narrower, but am seeing that in several individual Australian stocks with the whiff of accumulation about them. 

Early days, time will tell.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 November 2011)

Hope this rally off the lows can hang in there for this afternoon and continue for a few days. How's the volume look so far? I don't have the ability to see volume with IB on indices.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 November 2011)

I was just reading Twiggs' latest and his tone is very negative.  Like a big black cloud is about to descend!  

He has a pretty good record.


----------



## joea (22 November 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I was just reading Twiggs' latest and his tone is very negative.  Like a big black cloud is about to descend!
> 
> He has a pretty good record.




Yep.
Best no bull comments one can get.
joea


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 November 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I was just reading Twiggs' latest and his tone is very negative.  Like a big black cloud is about to descend!
> 
> He has a pretty good record.




Can you point me in the direction of it? It's not in this thread is it?


----------



## Ves (22 November 2011)

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

Fairly certain that this is the article in question.


----------



## sammy84 (28 November 2011)

Some huge moves in the banks so far. 

Historically, strong moves in the financials are normally a good short term indicator of a relief rally at the very least. 

If these gains hold out I'll be scanning a lot of charts tonight.


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## Wysiwyg (28 November 2011)

sammy84 said:


> Some huge moves in the banks so far.
> 
> Historically, strong moves in the financials are normally a good short term indicator of a relief rally at the very least.
> 
> If these gains hold out I'll be scanning a lot of charts tonight.



Daily volume on CBA relatively low at present but EOD will paint a better picture. Hard to believe "investors" (?) would be buying in the perceived gloom.


----------



## tinhat (29 November 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Daily volume on CBA relatively low at present but EOD will paint a better picture. Hard to believe "investors" (?) would be buying in the perceived gloom.




Mainstream media is talking about the high yields on offer. See:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/want-113-from-a-bank-20111128-1o2bf.html

I topped up on ANZ and WBC recently just before both went ex-dividend for the SMSF which has one member in pension mode. Three dividend cheques within fifty-three weeks, with franking credits works out to an effective yield of about 15% pa. I've also been topping up on CBA. Sure the price could fall further still, and if it does I'' buy more for the SMSF.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 November 2011)

tinhat said:


> Three dividend cheques within fifty-three weeks, with franking credits works out to an effective yield of about 15% pa. I've also been topping up on CBA. Sure the price could fall further still, and if it does I'' buy more for the SMSF.



Looks like you're on top of it. .  Have you looked at MOC as a dividend play? Currently 13c/share fully franked for the year which is 10% of current share price. 

Volume ended up supportive today and with markets up, up, up tonight, CBA will likely have an up day again tomorrow.  



> Historically, strong moves in the financials are normally a good short term indicator of a relief rally at the very least.



Good spotting.


----------



## tinhat (29 November 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Looks like you're on top of it. .  Have you looked at MOC as a dividend play? Currently 13c/share fully franked for the year which is 10% of current share price. .




Thanks - I'll look into MOC a bit more. The fundamentals look a bit shakey in terms of forecast EPS.


----------



## Julia (29 November 2011)

This person (bank manager/economist/management consultant/strategic planner) apparently accurately predicted the GFC and subsequent events.  His thoughts about the next few years are pretty dismal.
I found the interview interesting.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/...he-gfc.html?site=widebay&program=612_evenings


----------



## DocK (29 November 2011)

This is from Finance News Network - Gary Glover's outlook for 2012.  Apologies if it's already been posted.

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network19265.html


----------



## RazzaDazzla (29 November 2011)

DocK said:


> This is from Finance News Network - Gary Glover's outlook for 2012.  Apologies if it's already been posted.
> 
> http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network19265.html




Is that the same Gary Glover ex. ABN Amro Morgans, ex. Alert Trader? Anyone know the history of the Gary Glover on FNN?

I had a bad experience with a Gary Glover...


----------



## DocK (29 November 2011)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Is that the same Gary Glover ex. ABN Amro Morgans, ex. Alert Trader? Anyone know the history of the Gary Glover on FNN?
> 
> I had a bad experience with a Gary Glover...




He's with Novus Capital - don't know if that's the same one or not.  I just realised you may need to be a subscriber to view the link - but it's free to subscribe


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 November 2011)

Have Aussie market participants got diarrhea or something? Poopin their pants over the collective European psychosis.


----------



## Ves (6 December 2011)

Twiggs' latest blogs seem more optimistic than a 1-2 weeks ago. Interesting intersection in the market.


----------



## lenny (6 December 2011)

Whats peoples thoughts on the gaps left behind in most of the big caps, will they get filled on this leg down?

BHP,QBE,RIO,WES,WOR,WOW,ANZ,CBA,MQG,NAB,WBC ???????????


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 December 2011)

Very unusual last hour.  What happened?


----------



## peter2 (9 December 2011)

All markets are reacting to any news out of the Eurozone Brussell's meeting. 
One minute it's bad, sell, next it's good, buy.

Normal tug of war between supply and demand on the shorter time frames has been hijacked by the news.


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## sammy84 (12 December 2011)

I love when newspapers make forecasts like below:

'Investors are cheering the outcome of the EU summit, but the rally is not expected to last as the results may be too little and too late to solve the debt crisis.'

http://www.theage.com.au/business/w...relief-but-no-big-bazooka-20111212-1oqdq.html​
Time to put on the hat with bull horns.


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## Gringotts Bank (19 December 2011)

In a way it would be nice to have say 5 days of 300 point drops in a row to clear the cobwebs, because the slow draw down is harder to bear.  The market is like a cancer patient, doctors keeping it just healthy enough to live, but the inevitable is happening slowly, slowly.  Struggle all you like!  Won't make a shred of difference!


----------



## tinhat (20 December 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> In a way it would be nice to have say 5 days of 300 point drops in a row to clear the cobwebs, because the slow draw down is harder to bear.  The market is like a cancer patient, doctors keeping it just healthy enough to live, but the inevitable is happening slowly, slowly.  Struggle all you like!  Won't make a shred of difference!




Higher lows. The volatility alone is still shaking out small investors who can't stand the volatility any longer.


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## RazzaDazzla (20 December 2011)

tinhat said:


> Higher lows. The volatility alone is still shaking out small investors who can't stand the volatility any longer.




A service I subscribe to has put some emphasis on S&P500 holding the 1,200 level. After last night, it looks like it's hanging in there by the skin of its teeth. My wildest imagination can't comprehend what jack in the box surprise might surface to "explain" any rally from here.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2011)

tinhat said:


> Higher lows. The volatility alone is still shaking out small investors who can't stand the volatility any longer.




Very succinct.  I have to agree.


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## Gringotts Bank (20 December 2011)

4114 is sitting on the lower trendline of the big symmetrical triangle - easy to see. 

A drop past 4051 would of course mean lower lows and that's not far off.

So quite a critical day considering all this.


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## Wysiwyg (9 January 2012)

The DJIA is double the low of March 2009 which I would think, considering the resource/construction boom we are experiencing, would have the XAO up around 6000 points. Instead the XAO languishes in the low 4000's. Damn frustrating hey. Maybe on the other side of this is a steep rise for stocks?


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## sinner (9 January 2012)

Wysiwyg said:


> The DJIA is double the low of March 2009 which I would think, considering the resource/construction boom we are experiencing, would have the XAO up around 6000 points. Instead the XAO languishes in the low 4000's. Damn frustrating hey. Maybe on the other side of this is a steep rise for stocks?




Comparing DJIA to XAO is a little apples and oranges imho, but regardless it's plain the strong AUD against our trading partner currencies is causing stress for non-resource stocks. I've heard the turn of phrase "strong local currency isn't good for industrial stocks" more than once and it appears to be playing out here.

Just for fun, here is a 5y logscale weekly DJIA priced in AUD.


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 January 2012)

sinner said:


> Comparing DJIA to XAO is a little apples and oranges imho, but regardless it's plain the strong AUD against our trading partner currencies is causing stress for non-resource stocks. I've heard the turn of phrase "strong local currency isn't good for industrial stocks" more than once and it appears to be playing out here.



 Yes there was definitely divergence chart wise from about August 2010 and about September 2010 was when the AUD/USD broke out above 94 cents. (yellow line)


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## whitefang (9 January 2012)

I have one worry though. 
In the short term, if DJIA loses from this point 20% in value, I can see XAO/XJO doing more or less the same, and somehow irrespective of the ASD/USD (well, not true, we know there is a correlation, just I believe it is not direct proportional; and I am talking short term).

What is true is that if I live in Australia, I have to assess my returns in AUD (unless I pay everything in USD). Then it makes somehow no difference whether I invested in DJIA or XAO.

Bringing in concepts such as PPP ( Purchasing Power Parity) makes investing across different markets really funny...

cheers,




sinner said:


> Comparing DJIA to XAO is a little apples and oranges imho, but regardless it's plain the strong AUD against our trading partner currencies is causing stress for non-resource stocks. I've heard the turn of phrase "strong local currency isn't good for industrial stocks" more than once and it appears to be playing out here.
> 
> Just for fun, here is a 5y logscale weekly DJIA priced in AUD.
> 
> View attachment 45747


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 February 2012)

Good to see the push higher while not in the game.  
According to media, China set for +8% growth again this year. Our resource sector set to benefit. America building recovery momentum. Barack Obama serves a second term. Europe becomes an insignificant land mass in the northern hemisphere. Break open the champers, up, up and away.


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## sammy84 (20 February 2012)

Anyone know what that 25 point spike down after 3pm was? Error in data?


----------



## skc (20 February 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Anyone know what that 25 point spike down after 3pm was? Error in data?




Only showing on the XAO chart but not the XJO.

Looks like bad data.


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## RazzaDazzla (20 February 2012)

Evil Trading Robots!


----------



## whitefang (20 February 2012)

skc said:


> Only showing on the XAO chart but not the XJO.
> 
> Looks like bad data.




BTW, it showed on the XJO chart in Commsec's IRESS too.
I also noticed spikes all day on the 1min chart, which looked quite unusual.
Now I see S&P are probing ASX about the plunge...

Cheers,


----------



## RazzaDazzla (20 February 2012)

whitefang said:


> BTW, it showed on the XJO chart in Commsec's IRESS too.
> I also noticed spikes all day on the 1min chart, which looked quite unusual.
> Now I see S&P are probing ASX about the plunge...
> 
> Cheers,



Australia's own flash crash hey.

Was there many trading consequences? Did SPI futures dip too? What about XJO options? People with CFD positions get stopped out?


----------



## whitefang (21 February 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Australia's own flash crash hey.
> 
> Was there many trading consequences? Did SPI futures dip too? What about XJO options? People with CFD positions get stopped out?




Actually I was watching 2 XJO option issues, and while spikes or the 25-point plunge showed clearly on the chart, there was absolutely no movement at that time in the pricing offered by the market makers, which makes me think that they would either not see the spikes or deliberately chose not to react (as anyone realizes, market makers change prices in real-time, before a movement is seen on the chart that lags by a few seconds at least...)

cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 February 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Australia's own flash crash hey.
> 
> Was there many trading consequences? Did SPI futures dip too? What about XJO options? People with CFD positions get stopped out?






whitefang said:


> Actually I was watching 2 XJO option issues, and while spikes or the 25-point plunge showed clearly on the chart, there was absolutely no movement at that time in the pricing offered by the market makers, which makes me think that they would either not see the spikes or deliberately chose not to react (as anyone realizes, market makers change prices in real-time, before a movement is seen on the chart that lags by a few seconds at least...)




The SPI was steady it was just a data issue from the ASX. And as the ASX quotes the indexes only every 30 sec, they are not live dynamic but live snapshot, all the CFD, Oppies MM etc either use the SPI or run there own index algo off the actual share prices to track the XJO.

And the reason why the SPI didn't follow is the same, all the algo bots don't use the XJO/XAO they use the underling shares.


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## Trembling Hand (21 February 2012)

Interesting that the Aussie market has moved higher once opened the last two days while the rest of Asia hasn't thought China adding cash is a positive and gone south once open.


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## Trembling Hand (21 February 2012)

Boom........... deal done.


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## skc (21 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Boom........... deal done.




So buy or sell the fact?!


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## Trembling Hand (21 February 2012)

skc said:


> So buy or sell the fact?!




I wouldn't fight all this cash. 

BUT

The setup from here seems like we have a high on the open from yesterday and a low from 30 mins ago for the week for all markets Equity, Commods & FX. (Aussie & Euro equity reverse times for H L)

I would play the week ending as a breakout week if we can move and hold past the current set H/Ls by tomorrow. That is take out the lows soon, by Friday we will be much lower. Or reverse come Friday if we can push through the highs.

Now where is that fence?


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## notting (21 February 2012)

Quick! Start talking about facebook.


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## Trembling Hand (21 February 2012)

notting said:


> Quick! Start talking about facebook.




Huh?


----------



## skc (21 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't fight all this cash.
> 
> BUT
> 
> ...




I see. If it breaks up it'd be higher. If it breaks down it'd be lower...

Looks like everyone's rolling over now.


----------



## notting (21 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Huh?




Nasdac is at record levels since it's pop due to money going into the tech sector in anticipation that it will all benefit from the Facebook float.  
That float will also get a lot of tongues wagging about the market and bring in a generational interest into the markets - New money that the market has been lacking since the crash.
So what I'm saying a little cynically is - the media and anal_ists should now start reving it up if they want the SP500 to smash through to new highs since the crash - and make the market!


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## whitefang (21 February 2012)

notting said:


> So what I'm saying a little cynically is - the media and anal_ists should now start reving it up if they want the SP500 to smash through to new highs since the crash - and make the market!




I agree that we may see now another leg up, with Greece deal done and attention going back to USA/China. Just keep the momentum going for a little longer. We may see XJO in the 4400 area again. Though so far ASX seems to be the only market really excited about the Greek deal
It may take much more to break outside this range we have been in for a while...

cheers,


----------



## RazzaDazzla (21 February 2012)

Welcome back TH!

How was your break?


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## Gringotts Bank (22 February 2012)

Quite a few speccies showing resistance.  Nothing looks ripe for picking.  I'm betting lower next few days.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 February 2012)

Here we sit in Australia, one of the few economies in the world that did not go into recession when the gfc hit. While the rest of the world is drowning in sovereign debt we are relatively sovereign debt free.

So why is it that the DJIA is testing 13,000 and the Nasdaq is testing 3000 again while our fantastic market is still wallowing under 4400? Why isn't our market back up arround 6000?


----------



## Logique (25 February 2012)

I've noticed this relative under performance as well. I see one factor being a sense of creeping sovereign risk from a set of federal policies on the cusp of introduction. More than adequately canvassed on the political threads - with a variety of differing opinions therein.  Another factor is that our market index is heavily influenced by commodities and metals companies, which were hit hard last year.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 February 2012)

Logique said:


> I've noticed this relative under performance as well. I see one factor being a sense of creeping sovereign risk from a set of federal policies on the cusp of introduction. More than adequately canvassed on the political threads - with a variety of differing opinions therein.  Another factor is that our market index is heavily influenced by commodities and metals companies, which were hit hard last year.




I'm leaning more to the impact of the rising Aud$  discouraging foreign investment in our share market. Potential foreign investors would be apprehensive that a fall in our dollar would have the ability to undermine their investment far more than they would gain through share price gains, divs etc.


----------



## Logique (25 February 2012)

Yes a point well made, closing in on $1.08 US, and has been strengthening against the Euro and GBP as well. Plenty of opinion that a stronger AUD is here to stay, but that doesn't mean internationals aren't nervous.  Strong AUD impacts profitability of exporters as well.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 February 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> I'm leaning more to the impact of the rising Aud$  discouraging foreign investment in our share market. Potential foreign investors would be apprehensive that a fall in our dollar would have the ability to undermine their investment far more than they would gain through share price gains, divs etc.




A strong dollar in its self shouldn't hold back foreign money when there is a sea of liquidity looking for return. If you are a hedge fund with a spare $2 bil borrowed at close to nothing looking for return the ASX would only be a bad place if you thought the high dollar was not going to last. These dudes chase big trends.

If you invest in XJO @ AUD 1.06 is no real difference than AUD @ $0.80. Its what happens after you get in. If they think AUD is going to $1.12-$1.15 then XJO @ 4300 is a bargain. So far it would seem the double risk of currency at these levels and small liquidity equity markets is unattractive.


----------



## tinhat (25 February 2012)

Regarding the exchange rate. I thought Glen Stevens made a very interesting point in the senate estimates committee hearing the other day. He is surprised that the AUD has remained high despite that commodity prices have come off. Whereas the AUD has historically tightly tracked commodity prices and our terms of trade, at the moment there is a divergence. This fits the story of the AUD being somewhat of a sovereign risk safe haven of late.

Regarding the XAO under-performance of the SPC. I find this obsession with the New York stock exchange a little antiquated. For all this talk of Australia hitching its wagon to the China (and Asia) steam train, I wonder whether people's thinking has caught up with the zeitgeist yet.

The attached image shows the relative performance of the XAO (black) against the S&P500 (red) and the Shanghai A Index (blue). Just imagine, if the XAO tracked the S&P500 it would be at 6100 right now. Sorry time scale is missing from the bottom of these charts. First one is from the bottom of the crash around March 2009.




If we go back to the beginning of the current secular bear market for the S&P 500 (back to around 2001) we get a very interesting story from comparing the three. Time scale is from around start of 2001 after the dot com crash.




As far as I can tell from the S&P data I downloaded the S&P500 P/E is currently around or just above 14. I don't know what the PE of the S&P200 is - I would imagine it is lower more around 12?

Anyway, lets look at the Aussie market and some of its current attributes:
- high $
- high interest rates
- softening in commodity prices
- highly trade exposed & concentrated in minerals
- uncertainty around China's growth in the short/medium term.

They also say that the US stock market generally goes up in the year of a presidential election. As crazy as it might sound to us, I think those Americans actually believe all the bull**** their politicians come up with and actually get caught up in the false promise of the empty rhetoric of the simple minded nationalist, imperialist propaganda they excel at.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 February 2012)

Yep good point Tinhat. Everyone says we follow the dow? But we clearly haven't been. Our economy/market  has little to do with the outcome of Apple etc.

The China market and infact all the other Asian markets, Kospi, Taiwan, Japan, have also not been pulled up by the US. Why would ours?


----------



## tinhat (25 February 2012)

Correction to my last post. I believe the Aegis data as used on news.com.au/business states that the current PE for the Australian "market" (not sure if that is S&P 200?) is 13.8. Business Week reported yesterday that the S&P 500's P/E has fallen since April 2011 to now be at 14 (in other words, US company earnings are growing). Source.

So, The Aus S&P200 and US S&P500 are both currently at similar P/E ratios.


----------



## kid hustlr (26 February 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> A strong dollar in its self shouldn't hold back foreign money when there is a sea of liquidity looking for return. If you are a hedge fund with a spare $2 bil borrowed at close to nothing looking for return the ASX would only be a bad place if you thought the high dollar was not going to last. These dudes chase big trends.
> 
> If you invest in XJO @ AUD 1.06 is no real difference than AUD @ $0.80. Its what happens after you get in. If they think AUD is going to $1.12-$1.15 then XJO @ 4300 is a bargain. So far it would seem the double risk of currency at these levels and small liquidity equity markets is unattractive.




Great point.

Further, with such a large number of of the ASX200 companies having a reliance on offshore earnings, wouldn't the high AUD also be impacting profitability and therefore valuation?

I still don't think the world economy is in a 'risk on' mentality given the global uncertainty. As such if these big hedge funds/banks/whatever can borrow at next to nothing and take a decent clip on the carry trade why wouldn't they be taking advantage?


----------



## sammy84 (3 March 2012)

Can anyone out there give me the seasonal stats for the XAO?

I'm curious with the March dividend season what the typical March return is.

Thanks.


----------



## Trembling Hand (3 March 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Can anyone out there give me the seasonal stats for the XAO?
> 
> I'm curious with the March dividend season what the typical March return is.
> 
> Thanks.



Yep


----------



## patchau (3 March 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Can anyone out there give me the seasonal stats for the XAO?
> 
> I'm curious with the March dividend season what the typical March return is.
> 
> Thanks.




What start/end dates would most suite eg... mid March to late April?


----------



## sammy84 (4 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep
> 
> View attachment 46294




Tech

What's your opening price parameter? Is it 1 March?

Patchau, I am looking for 1 March to 31 March.

Cheers all.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 March 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Tech
> 
> What's your opening price parameter? Is it 1 March?
> 
> ...




Err who? :

Anyway ...open price = first trading day of month to close on last trading day of month.


----------



## patchau (4 March 2012)

sammy84, two charts should cover most dates.

Put the charts on Imgur as the stats window on the left of charts may be difficult to read.

http://imgur.com/uExus.png


http://imgur.com/fae5n.png


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 March 2012)

what software is that patch?


----------



## patchau (5 March 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> what software is that patch?




MetaStock using VSTpro plugin.


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 March 2012)

Here is a look at XAO returns per month (first trading day to last) from the start of 2004 to end of last year.

Don't think there is much there in terms of + or -.


----------



## sammy84 (5 March 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Err who? :
> 
> Anyway ...open price = first trading day of month to close on last trading day of month.




Sorry TH. I sometimes lump you and Tech together in my mind 

Thanks for the stats. I usually pay attention to seasonal analysis is the US but have tended to ignore Australia. I think your last post with the stats from 2004 would confirm that Australia doesn't have a seasonal bearing.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (7 March 2012)

OS markets go up, the Aussie battler stays flat. OS markets go down, the Aussie battler goes down too!

Sure is frustrating the heck out of me.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 March 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> OS markets go up, the Aussie battler stays flat. OS markets go down, the Aussie battler goes down too!
> 
> Sure is frustrating the heck out of me.




You're looking at the wrong markets. US & Euro markets went up. Japan went up.

China has been going nowhere to down.

Which one do you think we *now *follow?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (13 March 2012)

Anyone want to share thoughts about today's action? Overseas markets were pretty much flat overnight, and ours goes up by 1.3% to peak - not least on a day of bad home loan and business confidence data. Seems illogical.


 - Is the market just testing resistance at 4255?

 - Are the miners just rebounding off support?

 - Is the market frothing about an interest rate cut due to poor housing finance data this morning?

 - Are people covering shorts ahead of futures & options expiry day on Thursday? Wouldn't it make more sense to do it on Thursday than today unless the market truly believes we're headed straight back to 4300?


----------



## tinhat (13 March 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> OS markets go up, the Aussie battler stays flat. OS markets go down, the Aussie battler goes down too!
> 
> Sure is frustrating the heck out of me.




On what basis should the XAO/XJO be going up? Here is a list of the ASX 20.

AMP
ANZ
BHP
BXB
CBA
CSL
FGL
MQG
NAB
NCM
ORG
QBE
RIO
SUN
TLS
WBC
WDC
WES
WOW
WPL

 For each of these companies I encourage you to check out their EPS growth over the past two years and the EPS growth forecasts. Given that the ASX 200 is weighted towards four banks, a couple of miners, a telecom and a couple of retailers - all with very modest EPS growth outlooks, and given global macro-economic risk factors, I can't see much reason on a FA basis to get too bullish on the XAO. Sure it's 15% oversold on my estimates but that's the risk discount the market is demanding in the current macro environment.

Looking at individual companies such as an Ausdrill, Monodelphus, Mermaid Marine, Mineral Resources, Dominos Pizza - well that is another matter.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (14 March 2012)

Have a question for the more experienced.

Trading CFDs, I noticed the ASX200 market was closed for about 5 minutes at around 4:15pm today during which time it was up by about 25 points or so (then went straight back down to where it was once this "close" was over).

What's that all about?


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Trading CFDs, I noticed the ASX200 market was closed for about 5 minutes at around 4:15pm today during which time it was up by about 25 points or so (then went straight back down to where it was once this "close" was over).
> 
> What's that all about?



They are futures linked not ASX indexes such as ASX200. In this case the SPI. Open from 9:50 am to 4:30 pm. Then 5:15 pm to 7 am (I think thats the overnight close)


----------



## skc (14 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Have a question for the more experienced.
> 
> Trading CFDs, I noticed the ASX200 market was closed for about 5 minutes at around 4:15pm today during which time it was up by about 25 points or so (then went straight back down to where it was once this "close" was over).
> 
> What's that all about?




Which CFD provider? Are you sure it wasn't 4:30 like TH said? Can you still see it on the charts?


----------



## Starcraftmazter (14 March 2012)

skc said:


> Which CFD provider? Are you sure it wasn't 4:30 like TH said? Can you still see it on the charts?




IG markets, it was not a CFD on a futures contract, just the index. I am 100% positive it  was at 4:15ish - definitely before 4:20pm. I haven't seen anything like it previously, so that's why I'm very curious.


----------



## skc (15 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> IG markets, it was not a CFD on a futures contract, just the index. I am 100% positive it  was at 4:15ish - definitely before 4:20pm. I haven't seen anything like it previously, so that's why I'm very curious.




Can't see it on my IG chart.




Can't really see what you are describing on the SPI chart either.

BTW, ASX200 index is basically a CFD on a futures contract, with added quirks like dividends and interest charges.


----------



## skyQuake (15 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Have a question for the more experienced.
> 
> Trading CFDs, I noticed the ASX200 market was closed for about 5 minutes at around 4:15pm today during which time it was up by about 25 points or so (then went straight back down to where it was once this "close" was over).
> 
> What's that all about?




They might have closed it until closing match at 4:10. Since its linked to cash maybe there was some bid/asks trying to get done on the uncrossing. I used IG but have not seen it..


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 March 2012)

skyQuake said:


> They might have closed it until closing match at 4:10. Since its linked to cash maybe there was some bid/asks trying to get done on the uncrossing. I used IG but have not seen it..




Do you know what it was? The Futs roll over. They were swapping the link from 03-12 to 06-12.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (15 March 2012)

Ah that would make a lot of sense, thanks.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (19 March 2012)

Wow what a day, almost straight away the asx200 went for the 4300 mark, got to 4310.7 and got sold off just a bit. Wonder what it will finish at.


----------



## blue0810 (19 March 2012)

If  ( BHP & RIO & 4 Banks) >0
Then  XAO >0


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 March 2012)

Market looking amazing today.  There's about 20 speccies I'd happily buy.

I reckon a few days of slight weakness early next week, then it's on.  Breakout time.


----------



## blue0810 (23 March 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> .  There's about 20 speccies I'd happily buy.
> 
> .




So  you must have your own XTL (S&P/ASX 20)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 March 2012)

S&P have been in contact with me, that's true.  They want to use my trading habits as a contrarian indicator.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (27 March 2012)

Close at 4,297.20 - getting awfully close 

All rests on US consumer sentiment tonight and I predict it will be crap, and then down we go


----------



## skc (27 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Close at 4,297.20 - getting awfully close
> 
> All rests on US consumer sentiment tonight and I predict it will be crap, and then down we go




4301.3.

Breakout!!!

(Ignoring the last 7 failed attempts).


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 March 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> Close at 4,297.20 - getting awfully close
> 
> All rests on US consumer sentiment tonight and I predict it will be crap, and then down we go




Forgetting that crap is good = market higher = all good again


----------



## nulla nulla (27 March 2012)

XAO 4391 after testing 4397.9. Banks were good today and still have room for further gains.


----------



## notting (27 March 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> XAO 4391 after testing 4397.9. Banks were good today and still have room for further gains.



 Agree, the market goes no where without the banks and that has been the big lag 
and when the banks move the tide comes in, and historically March is good for our banks and the lower dollar is helping and we are above 200 day moving average which is a volume grabber to keep the ball rolling and the financial indicators are looking broken out and we've been rolling with the punches so long we find that hard to see.
Funny I don't remember any of the big 4 and 2 making a loss during the GFCs first act.  BOQ doesn't seem to have frightened too many off!  
IAG has followed QBE up on it's run :sheep:
That's funny. 
Of course last year was an *unusually *bad year for natural disasters!!
It's not like that's going to happen again. :taz:
Even the SUN is up. :silly:
Better put a pair of shorts on and go tend the chooks.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 March 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I reckon a few days of slight weakness early next week, then it's on.  Breakout time.




So it broke out, now there's no follow through.  I'm selling everything but a few stocks I have.


----------



## Logique (29 March 2012)

Looking at the European and US bourses, to me they look primed for a bearish leg.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 April 2012)

The five year chart (below) for the all ords shows we are due for an upward leg, particularly when you compare our index with the various overseas index's. 




The recent activity suggest our market is trying to break out above the resistance level of 4400 but there are a lot of factors making it hard: The two speed economy; the high value of the aud$ against other world currencies; the current Australian tendency to save money in banks rather than invest in the share market; the ongoing saga of sovereign debt among the Euro member nations; and the slowing of the chinese economic growth rate, just to name a few.

At this point we could just as easily fall back to 4200 as we could break through 4400 and test the next resistance level at 4600. Hard call, I reckon a small retrace is more likely with the market continuing to move side ways and upward. The range bandwidth moving from 4000-4400 to possiblly 4300-4600?  But then, what would I know.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (7 April 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> the high value of the aud$ against other world currencies;




I think the very recent downfall of the Aussie dollar has a lot to do with our stockmarket finally breaking above 4300/4400 (asx200/xao).

So I'm willing to bet that shall AUDUSD collapse to parity, our market will indeed launch even higher, and if it pulls back to 1.07/8 then we won't get far.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 April 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> The five year chart (below) for the all ords shows we are due for an upward leg, particularly when you compare our index with the various overseas index's.
> 
> View attachment 46663
> 
> ...




A good analysis nulla.

We wait and watch.

gg


----------



## joea (8 April 2012)

If I am correct COAG will be on the agenda this week.
There has been a bit of "shadow boxing", so it is time someone made contact.
Myself I am waiting for Wayne Swan's comments with baited breath.
I will have a small wager that the term "what is best for Australia" be used at least once by our fearless leader. 
When the air clears the XAO may move back a shade to complete the correction(Elliott) then proceed upwards.
joea


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> So it broke out, now there's no follow through.  I'm selling everything but a few stocks I have. [28th Mar ]




A lot of stocks have the top left shoulder and head in place.  If/when a right shoulder is to form, the Ords would need to be a bounce off either 4340 (nowish) or 4300.  The run up would be slight, maybe 50 points max.  Then looking for more direction.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 April 2012)

Looking ok, wouldn't you agree?

High of 28th Oct 2011 looks like it might get tested, hopefully into close, if not tomorrow.

Next major res == 4500.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2012)

4500 wasn't going to be broken in a hurry.

Down to 4450 tomorrow before an afternoon recovery.


----------



## Starcraftmazter (4 May 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 4500 wasn't going to be broken in a hurry.
> 
> Down to 4450 *tomorrow* before an afternoon recovery.




On Monday you mean


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2012)

Looks like today in fact - only 4 points to go.


----------



## sammy84 (15 May 2012)

Recent support and higher swing lows have both been taken out by this down move but I'm still not convinced this is going to last. Financials are holding up remarkably well. During the last few sustained down moves, financials were the first to head aggressively lower but have just meandered lower this time around. This alone doesn't make me bullish but I'm on my toes for long setups.


----------



## Joules MM1 (15 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> The five year chart (below) for the all ords shows we are due for an upward leg, particularly when you compare our index with the various overseas index's.
> 
> View attachment 46663
> 
> ...




are you also thinking every AUD tick below 1 mirrors its way onto several local sectors ?


----------



## CanOz (15 May 2012)

Bearish wedge on the XAO weekly....:behead:


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Bearish wedge on the XAO weekly....:behead:




Thanks CanOz

I have been pre-occupied with the daily, silly me, agree with you.

gg


----------



## nulla nulla (16 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Bearish wedge on the XAO weekly....:behead:




Good chart Canoz. Personaly I don't believe there has been as much irrational exuberance in our market since the bottom of the gfc and subsequently we have less likelihood of there being a substantial crash if the eurozone implodes. I'm not saying there won't be a drop. I think there will be but I don't see it dropping much below 4200 if that.

In recent weeks we have dropped away from the 4400 area on the comodity price falls impacting on the mining sector however the finance sector has held up very well reducing the fall. Most of the current prices in the non mining sector are fairly tight relative to earnings etc. 

With the current low price earnings levels there would have to be a significant destablisation of our economy to really justify a big fall. The big hedge funds had a field day shorting our markets down in 2008. But the market is a changed beast since then with the amount of borrowings and leverage that existed then almost non existant now. The hedge funds are relatively quiet now (except possibly the recent finger pointing at FMG). The reporting season so far has been fairly good. In most instances, even better than analyst expectations.

IMO the reality is there will be continued volitility as exuberance is undermined by panic then bubbles to the top again. Be prepared to trade the volitility. I reckon there will be plenty of opportunities. I see the wedge continuing for a little longer then possibly having a small break out upwards before it gets slapped back to the 4300 - 4500 range.


----------



## CanOz (16 May 2012)

It will be what it will be. Suffice it to say that the move is being affected by global macro sentiment and we are in a risk off environment for the moment. This will give downward pressure until that is fully priced into the market. We need a washout before we'll see higher prices again...


----------



## skc (16 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> It will be what it will be. Suffice it to say that the move is being affected by global macro sentiment and we are in a risk off environment for the moment. This will give downward pressure until that is fully priced into the market. We need a washout before we'll see higher prices again...




I smell fear today... I think it's coming from me 

90% cash at the moment so can't be that bad I suppose...


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 May 2012)

skc said:


> I smell fear today... I think it's coming from me




Lots of volume so far in the SPI today.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 May 2012)

Hmmmm, did I say 4200. Looks like a bit of flight to the US$. Property sector took a hit with some of the bigger ones down 2.5%+. Possibly international investors pulling more funds out before they get hit with the double whammy of falling share prices and the Aud$ dropping against the US$.


----------



## CanOz (16 May 2012)

Here is the weekly again after today's drop...and it closed on the low...you don't get much more bearish than this....Still i would expect a bounce soon, and that bounce would be a short opp as well. 

Quite often these patterns get retested right at the break, before carrying on again...lets see.corn:

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> lets see.corn:




is pillaging and plundering ok, too ?

:thankyou: ......been a good day so far......


----------



## CanOz (16 May 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> is pillaging and plundering ok, too ?
> 
> :thankyou: ......been a good day so far......




Ya gotta make hay while the sun shines!:bayer:

CanOz


----------



## Ves (16 May 2012)

CanOz, you mentioned a _wash_ was required (could have been in another thread, not sure) before we would see any major upward activity, what exactly does this constitute?


----------



## CanOz (16 May 2012)

Ves said:


> CanOz, you mentioned a _wash_ was required (could have been in another thread, not sure) before we would see any major upward activity, what exactly does this constitute?




A wash out is a huge down day in a with high volume but the market closes higher than the low. A situation where all the 'weak' hands are 'washed' out of the market. Also known as capitulation.

CanOz


----------



## Ves (16 May 2012)

So like the big one in early August last year? Gotcha.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 May 2012)

Only 2 weeks ago we were in solid uptrend.  While that trend looks to have been smashed, I don't think we're on the edge of a cliff yet.

Will take a few more gyrations before it decides to range or enter solid downtrend.  

Lots of job losses and business closure in Vic last 6 months.


----------



## satanoperca (17 May 2012)

Unemployment went down according to the April ABS figures, while there has been lots of retrenchments in the MSM, doesn't mean all is bad.

Unemployment still low and trending down.

Read the news, analyse the facts to get the real picture.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2012)

Ves said:


> So like the big one in early August last year? Gotcha.




Spot on Ves , you obviously can read a price chart quite well. I wish a few more would learn as well,might save them a few K.:shake:

Here's the washout and the lower high that MUST happen before an uptrend can be confirmed.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## newanimal (17 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> A wash out is a huge down day in a with high volume but the market closes higher than the low. A situation where all the 'weak' hands are 'washed' out of the market. Also known as capitulation.
> 
> CanOz



CanOz, do you mean to say, "but the market must close higher than the OPENING"? hence the white candlestick?
just wanna get it straight. nice tech tip. I enjoy this kind of info.


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2012)

newanimal said:


> CanOz, do you mean to say, "but the market must close higher than the OPENING"? hence the white candlestick?
> just wanna get it straight. nice tech tip. I enjoy this kind of info.




The market must close well off the LOW, as the price does a complete reversal. If it closes higher than the open then all the better, but its not needed. 

-Just think of what happens during that day...the market opens and falls dramatically with the selling being intense at times. 
-Then the market does a 180, and claws back all those losses and closes well above the low of the ay, even above the open. 

Thats a wash, where millions of shares change hands from the weak holders to the strong, who say 'thank you very much' and hold until the next top...where the reverse happens...

CanOz


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 May 2012)

I'm curious to hear others' thoughts on what the Greek problem will do to our and other markets.

Surely markets can't go on dropping until the next greek election? Will they bottom out somewhere and go into a holding pattern until Greece has a government?




satanoperca said:


> Unemployment still low and trending down.
> 
> Read the news, analyse the facts to get the real picture.




Well if you did that, you'd know that the economy is shedding full-time jobs everywhere, including in the latest employment data. Hardly a good thing.


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I'm curious to hear others' thoughts on what the Greek problem will do to our and other markets.
> 
> Surely markets can't go on dropping until the next greek election? Will they bottom out somewhere and go into a holding pattern until Greece has a government?
> 
> ...




Why don't you give us your technical view SCM...:bart:


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Why don't you give us your technical view SCM...:bart:




I don't have one buddy, care to share yours?


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2012)

Starcraftmazter said:


> I don't have one buddy, care to share yours?




Where did you learn to say 'buddy'?

Well there's plenty of posts that show my view at the moment...but in essence its a possible rally to retest the bearish wedge, then more of the same:whip...until the washout...:1zhelp:

CanOz


----------



## Starcraftmazter (17 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Where did you learn to say 'buddy'?
> 
> Well there's plenty of posts that show my view at the moment...but in essence its a possible rally to retest the bearish wedge, then more of the same:whip...until the washout...:1zhelp:
> 
> CanOz




Highschool, everyone was a buddy - happy times 

And thanks for your 2c.


----------



## Struzball (18 May 2012)

Is anybody else getting reeally sick of 'finance' updates in the news etc?

Market fell on fears of Greece...
Market rose on hopes of Greece...

Seriously, it's the only thing I've heard them attribute the movements to for a whole year!


----------



## newanimal (18 May 2012)

Struzball said:


> Is anybody else getting reeally sick of 'finance' updates in the news etc?
> 
> Market fell on fears of Greece...
> Market rose on hopes of Greece...
> ...




yep. always have been. if it isn't Greece, there's always one report to yank us one way one day...another contrary report to yank us the other way the next day. 
I'm sure it's all unintentional and no one benefits behind the scenes from pre-positioning:shake: before release of the written scripts. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/shake.gif


----------



## joea (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> A wash out is a huge down day in a with high volume but the market closes higher than the low. A situation where all the 'weak' hands are 'washed' out of the market. Also known as capitulation.
> 
> CanOz




today??
joea


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2012)

The question right now is will it get to 4100 today, tomorrow, or not at all.  Bounce definitely imminent.

Struz I'm sick of it too, but it's always the same, fear and hope (desire) drive the market.

edit:  I'm going to wait for everyone else to move first, with a good 20+ point re-trace off the day's low.


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

joea said:


> today??
> joea




Well it certainly washed my long out of the Kospi!!

No idea, look at the result at the end of the day. Why so anxious? Is everybody afraid of missing out on something? The market will still be here in a week. There will be opportunities every day.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2012)

10 points to go.  I don't feel like there's quite enough panic selling going on.  4100 is both a round number and the bottom trend line of a huge symmetrical triangle, so everyone sees it.

If it bounces, I'd want a very rapid return to 4120-30.  If it's too slow, it wouldn't feel right.

*RSI at 24.*


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Why so anxious? Is everybody afraid of missing out on something? The market will still be here in a week.




You sure about that


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

Good grief, don't tell me you're getting all 'doom and gloom'...

What this drop feel like compared to 2007/08 ?

Seems a little more orderly to me...maybe there are more unknowns that are knowns!

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr (18 May 2012)

If everyone's expecting this bounce it makes me feel like there's every chance it might go the other way


----------



## tech/a (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Good grief, don't tell me you're getting all 'doom and gloom'...
> 
> What this drop feel like compared to 2007/08 ?
> 
> ...




Yeh your probably right.
I know europia is stuffed!


----------



## wayneL (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Where did you learn to say 'buddy'?




More Americanization (or is that Americanisation ) of Aussie youth.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> What this drop feel like compared to 2007/08 ?
> 
> Seems a little more orderly to me...maybe there are more unknowns that are knowns!




Its like comparing a night out with a country girl first time off the farm and a night on the rack with a nasty Dominatrix. 

Both can be fun but totally different experiences.......

:whip


----------



## wayneL (18 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Its like comparing a night out with country girl first time off the farm and a night on the rack with a nasty Dominatrix.
> 
> Both can be fun but totally different experiences.......
> 
> :whip




I'd punt on the farmgirl. :casanova:


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

Yeah, i've had enough abuse from Miss Volatility :venus: lately....


----------



## skc (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Good grief, don't tell me you're getting all 'doom and gloom'...
> 
> What this drop feel like compared to 2007/08 ?
> 
> ...




Doesn't even feel worse than July 2011 yet.

Looking for a intraday reversal before withering out like all good Fridays do.

I am long a few laggard golds at the moment.


----------



## notting (18 May 2012)

skc said:


> Doesn't even feel worse than July 2011 yet.




Which is a little odd given many stocks have already fallen below the lows of not just 2011 but of the 2008 March lows!!

Another bemusing thing is that, so far, REITS are being treated like safe havens.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 May 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Its like comparing a night out with a country girl first time off the farm and a night on the rack with a nasty Dominatrix.
> 
> Both can be fun but totally different experiences.......
> 
> :whip




I'll take your word for it.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 May 2012)

notting said:


> Which is a little odd given many stocks have already fallen below the lows of not just 2011 but of the 2008 March lows!!
> 
> Another bemusing thing is that, so far, REITS are being treated like safe havens.




most of the reit's have reduced their borrowing significantly since the gfc. Most don't have to refinance major debt for another 12-18 months or so. 

The price falls make their yield and the p/e ratios even better.


----------



## skc (18 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> most of the reit's have reduced their borrowing significantly since the gfc. Most don't have to refinance major debt for another 12-18 months or so.
> 
> The price falls make their yield and the p/e ratios even better.




Also, they are heading into ex-dix in about a month's time so that may be of some help.


----------



## kid hustlr (18 May 2012)

With regards to the wash day, does this have to happen in the cash market or is there a chance this occurs overnight in the futures market?

If that's the case then is it possible it never shows up on a standard XJO chart, you would just see a big gap up?

Example:

ASX closes @ 4000 at 4.15pm.

SPI continues to trade down 100 points and gets to around 3900 through out the night then reverses hard and makes its way all the way back to close @ 4050

ASX opens the next day @ 4050 at 10.00am

Effectively the 'wash day' occurred but it wouldn't occur on the cash market charts, we would just see a gap up.


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> With regards to the wash day, does this have to happen in the cash market or is there a chance this occurs overnight in the futures market?
> 
> If that's the case then is it possible it never shows up on a standard XJO chart, you would just see a big gap up?
> 
> ...




Yeah, good point. you can go back and see that in 2008, not many gaps though, the SPI takes care of those quite effectively.

Many time you see the XAO close the day on the low, then open on that low (having gone much lower through the night) and recover much of the previous day. Obviously the overseas markets have had a wash.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

there's the low again...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2012)

4105 - Buy!  Seems rather late in the day for this.  Who feels like it will rally to close?


----------



## joea (18 May 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 4105 - Buy!  Seems rather late in the day for this.  Who feels like it will rally to close?




If it happens it will be in the last half-hour. Have been checking out patterns of this "spring", but then realised it was Friday. 
joea


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

The markets are really selling off now, the Kospi is down 4%...and yeah it is a Friday so i can't see a big rally into the close in Asia today...Big open in Europe today!

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2012)

Yeh not looking good.  Just blown the lower trendline of the big triangle.


----------



## kid hustlr (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, good point. you can go back and see that in 2008, not many gaps though, the SPI takes care of those quite effectively.
> 
> Many time you see the XAO close the day on the low, then open on that low (having gone much lower through the night) and recover much of the previous day. Obviously the overseas markets have had a wash.
> 
> CanOz




thx CanOz.

Clearly during times of high volatility just dont sleep.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2012)

Looks like 4047 to be tested Monday if DOW down again tonight.


----------



## skc (18 May 2012)

skc said:


> Doesn't even feel worse than July 2011 yet.
> 
> Looking for a intraday reversal before withering out like all good Fridays do.
> 
> I am long a few laggard golds at the moment.




Went pretty much according to script!

Those gold laggards didn't work out at all, unfortunately. All out at breakeven there.


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looks like 4047 to be tested Monday if DOW down again tonight.




4029 in the futs. 

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla (18 May 2012)

It has taken only 12 trading days for the xao to drop from the recent high of 4513 to the close today of 4098. 





The bad news is that the fall broke through the support line. If we don't bounce from here the next level of supports are 4057 of November 2011 then 3935 of September 2011. Both of which related to the prospects of a Greek default/exit from the Euro and tightening in the chinese economy. Sounds kind of familiar. you would think this has been factored in by now. Yet here we are again, testing the lows.


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

couldn't get more ugly...:007:


----------



## Sean K (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> couldn't get more ugly...:007:



That's pretty emphatic isn't it. Lots of fear there. Wonder how VIX is going.


----------



## Joules MM1 (18 May 2012)

kennas said:


> That's pretty emphatic isn't it. Lots of fear there. Wonder how VIX is going.




fast forward to 4.25 min into the video


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

kennas said:


> That's pretty emphatic isn't it. Lots of fear there. Wonder how VIX is going.




Up 7% to 26.2


----------



## joea (18 May 2012)

CanOz said:


> Up 7% to 26.2




CanOz.

If you run a trend line from 9/3/2009 to 8/8/2011 and extend to present day, do you think this will be a possibility to resist the price fall?
Another trend line on the top back to 29/102007 and you get a big triangle.
This one will not create as much fear.
Just a thought.
Sorry I cannot provide a chart with my software. I am setting up a Mac with parallels.
Maybe able to produce it by Sunday.
joea


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2012)

joea said:


> CanOz.
> 
> If you run a trend line from 9/3/2009 to 8/8/2011 and extend to present day, do you think this will be a possibility to resist the price fall?
> Another trend line on the top back to 29/102007 and you get a big triangle.
> ...




I gotcha there, but it does make a bigger descending triangle. The target would be so low you wouldn't believe it, probably too much data to be relevant. The constituents have changed by now. 

We should get a bounce here though, but it will only present another shorting opportunity. We'll need a bounce and another low before we can see higher prices again. Being the summer soon in N.America, i wouldn't expect another bull run until later fall. That doesn't mean we won't get a little rally, but for now, in my view this leg of this bull market is done.

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla (19 May 2012)

It will be interesting to see the outcome of the G8 meeting this weekend in the U.S.A. 

Will the world leaders turn the printing machines on again (or speed them up)?
Will the U.S Fed provide access to low interest rate funds to world banks again, like they did in 2009?
Or will they cut Greece and Spain loose? 

Our market has dropped near enough 10% in 12 trading days. Most other times it has taken a panic dip like this there has been a rebound recovering most of the losses, followed by a slow decline to the levels reached in the panic dip before gradually rebuilding again.

The markets are driven by irrational exuberance and fear & panic. At some stage those inclined to panic will be out of the picture.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 May 2012)

joea said:


> CanOz.
> 
> If you run a trend line from 9/3/2009 to 8/8/2011 and extend to present day, do you think this will be a possibility to resist the price fall?
> Another trend line on the top back to 29/102007 and you get a big triangle.
> ...




Is this the one?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 May 2012)

I don't like today's action at all.  A very steep fall over 2.5 weeks and it only just managed to scrape back to the 78.6% fib line.  No bounce in the cat.


----------



## joea (24 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Is this the one?
> 
> View attachment 47163




yes, sorry I did not get back sooner.

Now go to this link and see if you think its a 5 wave triangle correction in an uptrend!

http://stocata.org/ta_en/elliott.html
Somebody with Elliot understanding may comment for you.
joea


----------



## nulla nulla (24 May 2012)

joea said:


> yes, sorry I did not get back sooner.
> 
> Now go to this link and see if you think its a 5 wave triangle correction in an uptrend!
> 
> ...




I don't really believe in the Elliot Wave theory. It has always struck me as a hindsight record rather than a means of prediction. In my opinion there are plenty of other chart indicators that are more readily recognised and able to be factored into your personal risk assessment. No offence.


----------



## Gundini (24 May 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> No bounce in the cat.




Haha, true dat! But surely we are somewhere near the bottom: circa 3900 - 4100.... How much risk can there be? Sure we should be bouncing off 3100 with people jumping out of the city windows, Greece stuffed, Uk stuffed, US stuffed, China stuffed, Gold and Silver stuffed, Super Funds stuffed, Property stuffed, Paper money worth nothing, no Robots.... The end of the world is near, may as well go and top myself lol...


----------



## joea (25 May 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> I don't really believe in the Elliot Wave theory. It has always struck me as a hindsight record rather than a means of prediction. In my opinion there are plenty of other chart indicators that are more readily recognised and able to be factored into your personal risk assessment. No offence.




nulla nulla
No offence taken. each to his own.
joea


----------



## Joules MM1 (31 May 2012)

ok, fess up.....who planted the tree ?

green shoots anyone?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 May 2012)

Gundini said:


> Haha, true dat! But surely we are somewhere near the bottom: circa 3900 - 4100.... How much risk can there be? Sure we should be bouncing off 3100 with people jumping out of the city windows, Greece stuffed, Uk stuffed, US stuffed, China stuffed, Gold and Silver stuffed, Super Funds stuffed, Property stuffed, Paper money worth nothing, no Robots.... The end of the world is near, may as well go and top myself lol...




Hold off on that for the moment 

I reckon we might just hover around the 4100 mark until the outcome of the Greek elections.


----------



## sammy84 (31 May 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hold off on that for the moment
> 
> I reckon we might just hover around the 4100 mark until the outcome of the Greek elections.




By then the market will have already run.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 June 2012)

Yesterday's definitive break of the big triangle is screaming sell.  If you were to apply pattern height rules to the triangle, the target for XAO is just above 2000 (not that that is going to happen).

So I'm using today's hefty bounce to sell the one poultry stock I was holding.  And wait for a turnaround.


----------



## skc (5 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yesterday's definitive break of the big triangle is screaming sell.  If you were to apply pattern height rules to the triangle, the target for XAO is just above 2000 (not that that is going to happen).
> 
> So I'm using today's hefty bounce to sell the one poultry stock I was holding.  And wait for a turnaround.




I am unaware of any stock on the ASX that deal with demostic birds. What's the code?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 June 2012)

*paltry :thankyou:

Ingham  = public co.?


----------



## skc (5 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> *paltry :thankyou:
> 
> Ingham  = public co.?




Not... actually the only poultry stock is CKF (running KFCs).

BTA is probably a poultry stock in the sense the it only goes up when there's bird flu breakout.

There's also a stock called Falcon minerals... although I am unsure if Falcons, even when domesticated, can be considered poultry.

Back on topic...

Not much of a bounce in the market but at least my account is mean reverting a bit...


----------



## grace (5 June 2012)

Gosh, things have changed since I last posted.  We seem to have had some updates from Joe.  
Not much has changed in the market though.  All a bit sad.  I think it will take some time for sentiment to change in the overall market.  Poor old qantas today, who will be tomorrow?  I only have a couple of holdings left (so probably those ).  
It is good to be back in this forum.


----------



## drsmith (5 June 2012)

grace said:


> Poor old qantas today, who will be tomorrow?



Didn't a consortium led by Mac Bank offer something north of five bucks per Qantas share in the madness that preceeded the GFC ?

The board would like that day back.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 June 2012)

The offer was $5.60. I sold my small parcel at $5.30 in the price jump after the buy out approach was announced. I wasn't sure the buy out would get up so I took my money off the table while I could.


----------



## notting (6 June 2012)

There was this idiot grey headed hero Muppet representing the share holders, protecting them from big bad MQG . The media kept putting his stupid head on the box as he came out with cracker lines like, "Well, if it's such a good offer why do they wants to buy it so badly!" And "I don't want to pay the capital gains and want to keep my franked dividend." The idiot scuttled the deal and I hope he is still holding for doing such a good job representing the retail shareholders!


----------



## Junior (6 June 2012)

drsmith said:


> Didn't a consortium led by Mac Bank offer something north of five bucks per Qantas share in the madness that preceeded the GFC ?
> 
> The board would like that day back.




Correct me if I'm wrong.  AFG Allco Finance Group were part of that consortium, broke a year later.  What would have become of Qantas if that deal went through??  Could have resulted in a federal govn't bailout to save an 'aussie icon' a la GM in the states?


----------



## drsmith (6 June 2012)

Junior said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong.  AFG Allco Finance Group were part of that consortium, broke a year later.  What would have become of Qantas if that deal went through??  Could have resulted in a federal govn't bailout to save an 'aussie icon' a la GM in the states?



One can imagine that if it went ahead, the buyers would have attempted to sell if for a handsome profit, most likely bundled with lots of debt with the new shareholders and creditors left to carry the can once the GFC hit. 

Under that scenerio, it could nave been another ABC Learning at the very least.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 June 2012)

Why did the Dow go up 2.4%?

No good reason as far as I can see.  Normally such a jump would be bullish in the short to medium term.  Not this time.

In the media I think they take whatever the market has done and try to give it some reason when there is none, hence:

"Dow jumps on hopes of Greek bailout talks"
"Dow falls on fears of Greek bailout plans"
"Dow up on hopes of Spain bailout"
"Dow smashed on fears of Spain bailout"...   and so on for about 1 year's worth of headlines.

How about "The market was up last night, because there were more buyers than sellers"...?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How about "The market was up last night, because there were more buyers than sellers"...?




Nope. There was exactly the same amount of buyers to sellers...... as there always is.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Nope. There was exactly the same amount of buyers to sellers...... as there always is.




How about:

1.) new longs buying on perceived value
2.) old shorts taking profits
3.) new shorts running for the door

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2012)

CanOz said:


> How about:
> 
> 1.) new longs buying on perceived value
> 2.) old shorts taking profits
> ...




How about the buyers were forced to pay higher prices to get their fill.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> How about the buyers were forced to pay higher prices to get their fill.




Well that certainly covers all three doesn't it, but it doesn't really summarize the psychology, which is the interesting part....to me.

I had an audio book by Alex Elder and i just loved the way he narrated the market...you could understand what was happening with the emotions much clearer.

CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 June 2012)

CanOz said:


> Well that certainly covers all three doesn't it, but it doesn't really summarize the psychology, which is the interesting part....to me.
> 
> I had an audio book by Alex Elder and i just loved the way he narrated the market...you could understand what was happening with the emotions much clearer.
> 
> CanOz




that's all great but many of the buyers who are forced to push the offer, as selling is exhausted, are not emotional, they are simply constrained by where they are in their valuation models......you may read all the emotive stuff from a numpties point of view, however, institutional pov can be distinctively different at different stages of trend or rotation of price zones.......


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 June 2012)

i also stick by what i said a few days ago that there can be one buyer for several sellers, that is, one account is soaking the sells from many smaller accounts (at a low in trend) which is quite diff to the idea that there is one buyer for every one seller which implies a balance that doesnt exist even tho the transactions are in balance of one purchase equals one sale......figuring that out, when and where, is a tough task but one worth pursuing, imo


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2012)

Of course if there is 100 accounts selling dose not mean there is 100 on the other side. But it does mean the same amount of _volume _doing the exact opposite. As for if there was just 1 large dude doing most of the volume on one side I'd be more inclined to fade it.


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Of course if there is 100 accounts selling dose not mean there is 100 on the other side. But it does mean the same amount of _volume _doing the exact opposite. As for if there was just 1 large dude doing most of the volume on one side I'd be more inclined to fade it.




spot on...understanding when/where this occurs is the key......youve gone straight to the next step in the conversation, rather than ethereal meanings......


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 June 2012)

when volume lifts, price lifts _and_ there is one group of traders on the bid and a different group on the offer, what's the next question that needs to be answered?


----------



## kid hustlr (7 June 2012)

Which side will be exhausted first?


----------



## enigmatic (7 June 2012)

I think it is actually that there was more potential buying volume then potential selling volume.
offcourse if you sell one share there must be one share bought.
But if there is 100 shares being sold  but people want to buy 1000 then there is more on the buy side.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2012)

enigmatic said:


> I think it is actually that there was more potential buying volume then potential selling volume.
> offcourse if you sell one share there must be one share bought.
> But if there is 100 shares being sold  but people want to buy 1000 then there is more on the buy side.




:asdf:

:swear:


----------



## nulla nulla (9 June 2012)

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, 
Humpty Dumpty had a big fall, 
All the Kings horses and all the Kings men, 
couldn't put Humpty together again.

Frankly, this pretty much sums up where the XAO is at the moment. The figures released early in the week saw consolidation then a euphoric rise on Thursday. Then on Friday, the daydream burst and all of Thursdays gains were wiped out in a blink. Oddly enough the miners enjoyed a run up on Friday but it wasn't enough to offset the fall back by the financials.




(   ). Love the volitility but get tired of the erratic mood swings. We can expect this to continue long after the forthcoming Greek elections. The focus will then be Spain, Italy and France (Ireland probably won't rate a mention).


----------



## notting (9 June 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Oddly enough the miners enjoyed a run up on Friday .......Greek elections. The focus will then be Spain, Italy and France (Ireland probably won't rate a mention).




China cut rates - miners bounced then quickly retraced realising that China data to be released is likely to be less than the usual glowing lies. 
Greek elections could be as indecisive as last time. Paralysis and uncertainty everywhere.
Meanwhile focus is starting  to shift to congress with Big Ben pointing to them and saying 'It's now up to you.' Their deficit not to mention debt issues are the worst possible thing for sentiment and  S & P have just reiterated their negative watch - Republicans control the house in an election year and there is no surer way to flip a president than to have chaos in the markets.
You'd want to have defensive positions or no positions with that flock of dark quackers circling!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 June 2012)

+50 today possible?

I'm not feeling it, but if it happens, maybe time to start sniffing around for something to buy.


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> +50 today possible?
> 
> I'm not feeling it, but if it happens, maybe time to start sniffing around for something to buy.




is that your system?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 June 2012)

Yeh I buy whenever the Ords is up 50.  That's my system.


----------



## nulla nulla (13 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yeh I buy whenever the Ords is up 50.  That's my system.




I take you didn't buy today.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 June 2012)

correctomundo nulla.

A couple of my fav stocks are doing ok the last few days but I can't bring myself to back them without the broader market support.


----------



## skc (15 June 2012)

I suppose it's rebalance day at the close today... some stocks closed all over the shop.

SPN +9% after being flat all day.

AUT closed $3.23 but reached only $3.15 during the day.

SDM closed $1.62, while it was only $1.55 immediately before close.

These appear to be the work of people who get paid a lot of money to look after a lot of money... yet they just don't seem to care when they move prices by 2, 3, 5 or 8% because they wanted their fill straight away.

They could have got much better prices had they exercise more skill, care and not go out to lunch for so long on a Friday.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 June 2012)

It all looks like a bottom to me.

I could be wrong.

I've lost a lot of money on engaging bottoms in the past.

gg


----------



## tinhat (15 June 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It all looks like a bottom to me.
> 
> I could be wrong.
> 
> ...




gg what is making you think this? What are you seeing in the charts or in the news that is giving you hints about this? Interested to hear your thinking. I recall that in the downturn in the second half of last year you were quite pessimistic and saw the market crashing further. I'm more worried about this correction than the last one.

The S&P 500 has gone through three up waves since the GFC and could be due for another leg down after exhausting a dead cat bounce. A result in the Greek elections this week that is favoured by the markets could be that last push in the current relief rally before another leg down. Europe is not solving any of its problems. Finance markets need confidence. Without confidence they can't function and I can only see further downside risk everywhere I look in Europe and the USA. Unless a republican is elected president in the USA later this year there is no way that they are going to get their fiscal crisis sorted out (given that the lower house is republican controlled).

For the XAO I guess that China and to a lesser extent other developing countries (India) are the key. We have to hope that the worst of China's slow-down has just passed.

I find it interesting that the market nor the AUD have responded much to the 75 basis point cut to the cash rate over the past two months.


----------



## nulla nulla (16 June 2012)

The xao continues to dance up and down in a tight configuration like the greeks dancing the  Sirtaki.




Hopefully on Monday the Greek elections results will be pro Euro parties combining to form a government and we will get some upward breakout happening on the XAO (At least for a few days). Overnight on the International markets was fairly positive. I can't believe with all their problems the Dow Jones is creeping back up toward 13,000.


----------



## Logique (16 June 2012)

Looking across US and Euro bourses, needless to say they are heavily tech oversold, and a move seems on to swing upward. So eventually the XAO should follow. Also the USD index is falling on expectation of more QE, helping gold to consolidate above 1600.


----------



## blue0810 (16 June 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Hopefully on Monday the Greek elections results will be pro Euro parties combining to form a government and we will get some upward breakout happening on the XAO (At least for a few days). .




Will see.


----------



## tinhat (18 June 2012)

Looks like pro-euro coalition is the outcome of the Greek elections. I'm seeing a retracement back to around 4240 before the next leg down (triggered by Spain perhaps?). Let's see what comes out of Rio.


----------



## blue0810 (18 June 2012)

Good Morning:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/stocks-eyes-gains-after-greek-elections-20120618-20ipr.html


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 June 2012)

There's the 50+ points, bringing it to the top of the very tightly packed descending wedge which began on 21/5.

This wedge is the Greek election wedge.

I'll probably buy a few stocks at close so long as there is no retracement during the afternoon.

Looking solid.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> There's the 50+ points, bringing it to the top of the very tightly packed descending wedge which began on 21/5.
> 
> This wedge is the Greek election wedge.
> 
> ...




Why did you wait? 

The other thing is whats the edge on buying after a 2% rise? Very crappy would be my guess. I might run a test tonight when I have time but you must have a "system"?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Why did you wait?
> 
> The other thing is whats the edge on buying after a 2% rise? Very crappy would be my guess. I might run a test tonight when I have time but you must have a "system"?




I waited because of the wedge - it looked very indecisive and I'm sure it represents a holding pattern around the Greek elections.  Now that it's at the top side of that wedge and we're due for election results....it just augurs well, for the short term anyway.

I also waited because of some (undisclosed ) system rules.  

Whether any of this plays out, well that's the roulette wheel of the market.  Let it spin.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2012)

Yesterday a retest of support, fine.

Now this sh1tty candle with a huge wick, just when it should have been moving.  Can't stand the Aus market at the moment.  Sick as a dog.


----------



## young-gun (20 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yesterday a retest of support, fine.
> 
> Now this sh1tty candle with a huge wick, just when it should have been moving.  Can't stand the Aus market at the moment.  Sick as a dog.




may get worse tomorrow depending on what bernanke's got to say.:behead:


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> The other thing is whats the edge on buying after a 2% rise? Very crappy would be my guess. I might run a test tonight when I have time but you must have a "system"?




Ok, so I ran a query for gains 5 and 10 trading days after a 1.5% rise on the XAO. Basically no edge since Jan 2002!!

If anything 5 days later we are more likely to lose % than gain.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 June 2012)

Once again we are sitting just above the recent support area of 4080. Any good news in the Australian economy is eclipsed by the procrastination of Europe ("will we save Greece or won't we") and the political impasse of a Republican controlled Congress with a strangle hold on the Democratic Presidents testicle(s). Not to forget the hennie pennies running arround saying a slowing in the rate of growth in the chinese economy spells the end of the world and the hedge funds allegedly shorting everything "because they can".




If Greece was a sick dog down on the farm, it would have been put out of it's misery by now. I'm surprised the RSPCA hasn't taken the rest of the Euro members to task for cruelty to dumb animals.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 June 2012)

Swing low, sweet chariot?

I think so.

Buying some MAD at close.  Will sell them to you at $1.20 in a few days.

Hmm, someone's front running me!  :

I'm going to buy some DLS also.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 June 2012)

It's not going to go too far up.  The market has shown that it has absolutely no interest in going above 4200 in the short term.  So that leaves sideways or down.  I reckon sideways for a few days then down.  If it breaks 4050 to the downside, then there's a 300 point drop in store.... then a big buying opportunity at approx 3700.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> It's not going to go too far up.  The market has shown that it has absolutely no interest in going above 4200 in the short term.  So that leaves sideways or down.  I reckon sideways for a few days then down.  If it breaks 4050 to the downside, then there's a 300 point drop in store.... then a big buying opportunity at approx 3700.




Gee we are up for the week.... why so glum?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 June 2012)

A few reasons.  Spec market is dead.  I made a couple of $ on DLS and MAD today, and that's the first trades I've in about 10 days!!  XAO upper boundary looks set in stone at 4200, so I'm thinking there's more downside to come.

Glumness is bad for trading.  Luckily there is coffee.  Maybe I should look into coffee futures.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Glumness is bad for trading.  Luckily there is coffee.  Maybe I should look into coffee futures.




They will really make you glum,




Unless of course you are a consumer by the truck load


----------



## skc (28 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A few reasons.  Spec market is dead.  I made a couple of $ on DLS and MAD today, and that's the first trades I've in about 10 days!!  XAO upper boundary looks set in stone at 4200, so I'm thinking there's more downside to come.
> 
> Glumness is bad for trading.  Luckily there is coffee.  Maybe I should look into coffee futures.




I trust / hope you are not doing this on a full time basis?!

Frequenty of trade is the most important and direct factor for performance...


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 June 2012)

skc said:


> I trust / hope you are not doing this on a full time basis?!
> 
> Frequenty of trade is the most important and direct factor for performance...




I assume that GB has taken profit on these moves from yesterday because his saying he's made $ they are really crappy trades on an R:R basis.


----------



## skc (28 June 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I assume that GB has taken profit on these moves from yesterday because his saying he's made $ they are really crappy trades on an R:R basis.




I was referring to the comment about first trades in the last 10 days... I'd consider that quite infrequent for a full timer, although that's probably the right course of action for someone who only trades long.


----------



## drsmith (29 June 2012)

What's caused it to suddenly take off ?

Has China made a takeover offer for Australia ?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 June 2012)

wtf?????  +50?

Is this a fat finger moment?  That came out of nowhere.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 June 2012)

Monday morning will gap up so long as we stay 60+ for the day.

So, I'll buy stocks at close, sell Mon open (or Mon close if DJI very strong overnight).

For an overnight gap I strong gain with pivot break high.

RMP, GBG, CCV


----------



## prawn_86 (29 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> wtf?????  +50?
> 
> Is this a fat finger moment?  That came out of nowhere.




Euro leaders reach some sort of agreement as to bailout debt being non-preferential


----------



## Vader (29 June 2012)

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/local-stocks-leap-on-eu-deal-20120629-2162z.html



> Australian shares have leapt higher after Eurozone leaders struck a deal opening the door to allowing its rescue funds to help bring down borrowing costs of nations in trouble and directly recapitalise banks, the EU president said.



...


> CMC chief market strategist Michael McCarthy said the local market jumped on short-covering after the positive news from Europe. The sharp increase “seems like a potential overreaction,” he said.
> 
> "It’s interesting. When we saw the report from David Jones before the market opened, the spike in the consumer discretionary shares looked a lot like short covering, with the very sharp, quick moves,” he said.
> 
> ...


----------



## CanOz (29 June 2012)

Vader said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/local-stocks-leap-on-eu-deal-20120629-2162z.html
> 
> 
> ...




Pretty much sums up any impulsive intra-day move like that....shorts running for the exits    :run:  ...

It happened 3 or 4 times yesterday, both shorts and longs running.

CanOz


----------



## skc (29 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Monday morning will gap up so long as we stay 60+ for the day.
> 
> So, I'll buy stocks at close, sell Mon open (or Mon close if DJI very strong overnight).
> 
> ...




Can't help but think Europe will be a fizzer tonight... $100B is a drop in the ocean imho.


----------



## CanOz (29 June 2012)

skc said:


> Can't help but think Europe will be a fizzer tonight... $100B is a drop in the ocean imho.




Its got to be volatile again though...what with all the whispers that get out...They must have like a ...Financial Paparazzi   imp:   or something in Europe.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 June 2012)

skc said:


> Can't help but think Europe will be a fizzer tonight... $100B is a drop in the ocean imho.




There must be something in the news, otherwise we wouldn't still be sitting at +50, surely.  I'm thinking small to moderate gains overnight.

A few others that might be ok for a gap up:

QBE, COH, AFI, GUD


----------



## skc (29 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> There must be something in the news, otherwise we wouldn't still be sitting at +50, surely.  I'm thinking small to moderate gains overnight.
> 
> A few others that might be ok for a gap up:
> 
> QBE, COH, AFI, GUD




May be... they have a 2 day summit and you think / hope they are not firing all their bullets after the first day.

Anyway, shorting OST but will close at the closing auction.

MTS is a long candidate for me. The cap raising while unexpected was hardly a discount and is for debt repayment, not emergence purpose...

QBE already showing plenty of weakness for the day - it ran since Wednesday before the gun and I think it has tired itself out... COH and GUD have pretty poor correlation to the overall market from what I can see...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 June 2012)

skc said:


> May be... they have a 2 day summit and you think / hope they are not firing all their bullets after the first day.
> 
> Anyway, shorting OST but will close at the closing auction.
> 
> ...




Ords close enough to +60 for me.

Settled on RMP 36.5 and RNI 36.5.


----------



## Logique (30 June 2012)

Big bullish moves overnight. Germany, France and CRB index all well up +4%.  Crude up +9% is not so good for commuters.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 June 2012)

Crude up would suggest demand is increasing suggesting manufacturing is expect to increase. ???


----------



## nulla nulla (30 June 2012)

Bounced off the support levels and heading back to the resistance levels. The ftse was up 57 points last night, the dax 153 and the dow 257. Looks like "blue skies and lollipops" again....for a couple of days. 





I wonder if the dow can break above 13,000 again and the xao above 4200. lol


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 July 2012)

Sentiment out of Europe slightly better, but 4200 just seems like a bridge too far.

If we finish the day at +40, maybe a rest day tomorrow with say -30, then a decision will be needed by the market as to whether it wants to have another go at a breakout.  It wouldn't do it under its own steam - would require more good news from Europe.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2012)

The 'pause that refreshes' is in place.  Needing that news out of Europe.  Any expected ann's on that side of things?


----------



## CanOz (3 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The 'pause that refreshes' is in place.  Needing that news out of Europe.  Any expected ann's on that side of things?




Only EU PPI...reckon its gonna be another sleeper. I'll watch the open but i think the next two days are going to be quiet. Most traders would take this entire week off, summer holidays.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Only EU PPI...reckon its gonna be another sleeper. I'll watch the open but i think the next two days are going to be quiet. Most traders would take this entire week off, summer holidays.
> 
> CanOz




Thanks Can.  I also feel like it will be a non event.

How many days can our market stay at this level?  I'll guess two... bringing it to Thurs before it must decide.  

Anything that's trending strongly has a chance to continue until then.  So I want to pick up some strong runners today.  Thinking CAP, NEN, VRX


----------



## CanOz (3 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks Can.  I also feel like it will be a non event.
> 
> How many days can our market stay at this level?  I'll guess two... bringing it to Thurs before it must decide.
> 
> Anything that's trending strongly has a chance to continue until then.  So I want to pick up some strong runners today.  Thinking CAP, NEN, VRX




Thursday may be a bit slow too, by Friday we should get a little volume back...

I don't read much into the markets over this period, participation is at the lowest.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 July 2012)

VRX @54
NEN in line at 37


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 July 2012)

4200.

Ease of movement is everything when approaching resistance, and it seems ok right now.

Good day trading conditions.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 July 2012)

The V-shaped bounce stocks are doing the best.

Do they have longevity?  Is there run left in the likes of TGS BND IVR MGX etc.?  I think there is, even though they look overbought.

What's everyone thinking?

RMS @ 52.5c, wanting 55c.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Do they have longevity?  Is there run left in the likes of TGS BND IVR MGX etc.?  I think there is, even though they look overbought.
> 
> What's everyone thinking?




Not overbought by any stretch more like a sick market than an overbought one.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 July 2012)

SEA @ 62.5.  Not a lot of overhead there. 
CLR - sloppy looking market depth means no bots.  Trying to get in.


----------



## sinner (4 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> SEA @ 62.5.  Not a lot of overhead there.
> CLR - sloppy looking market depth means no bots.  Trying to get in.




Hmmm...do you really use that XAO chart there for signalling?




To me it looks like mean reversion is still good and I'd be looking for volatility to increase here. I'm a bit sad about the state of affairs 'cos I was a bull for 2012 (flat atm), but I'd be pretty cautious about entering longs at these highs.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 July 2012)

Some very strong performers and gapping amongst the specs.  No reason to think this swing has ended yet,  however, getting close - maybe another +10-20 points in it.  Only holding ARU, looking to sell for brokerage.  Not a day for intraday trading, but maybe some stocks for further overnight gaps.  Closing action will tell the story.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 July 2012)

sheeez, I got rid of RMS and ARU too early.  That hurts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 July 2012)

Most of the big movers were on low turnover.  Maybe that's it for this swing.  Didn't take any posi's at close.  Return to 4183 tomorrow.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 July 2012)

Looking for a drop to 4156 Monday, dotted line.


----------



## CanOz (7 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looking for a drop to 4156 Monday, dotted line.




Probably open there GB, i didn't check where the futures finished but they'll open down 1% or so.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2012)

Low of 4154 so far.  The bounce back up is encouraging.

I can't see it swinging back to major support at 4058.  Looking for an opportunity at 4137, if it lines up.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 July 2012)

One of those out-of-synch days.  There's anticipation of a decent rally; some jumped the gun and the remainder are waiting for a proper set up, meaning that the whole thing is messy.  

Hopefully by the end of day the impatient have realized their mistake and it will end up in the red.  If those waiting for the proper set up decide to join in the buying then it will be unsustainable and get sold off tomorrow.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 July 2012)

4137 target

So long as it stays around here I'll take some long posis at close.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 4137 target
> 
> So long as it stays around here I'll take some long posis at close.




GB do you take note of anything outside of the ASX? Expected OS news etc?


----------



## CanOz (10 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> GB do you take note of anything outside of the ASX? Expected OS news etc?




What that little tidd bit? Did that move the market today....

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> What that little tidd bit? Did that move the market today....
> 
> CanOz




yeah surprising hey? Who woulda thought china trade shrinking could possibly effect risk trades.....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 July 2012)

The ones that move the markets factor all the news into the charts, so I don't have to.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 July 2012)

Looking at 4188 now.
Bought ENV, WTF at close.


----------



## jancha (10 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Looking at 4188 now.
> Bought ENV, WTF at close.




WTF? Love that ASX code.... it has a dual purpose meaning if it suddenly drops.lol


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2012)

4188 obvious not on.
Looking at 4156 by tomorrow or they'll be sold.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2012)

Lower wick formed.  The market knows that if it rises even 70 points from here, there we are once again at resistance.  It's had so many shots at this recently.  It's either going to bust out big time with a couple of huge green candles, or it's going to fall through the floor.  There doesn't seem to be any hint of the latter, so I'm holding.


----------



## sinner (11 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Hmmm...do you really use that XAO chart there for signalling?
> 
> To me it looks like mean reversion is still good and I'd be looking for volatility to increase here. I'm a bit sad about the state of affairs 'cos I was a bull for 2012 (flat atm), but I'd be pretty cautious about entering longs at these highs.




Played out to the tee although vols still relatively quiet. I still don't understand the point of using the XAO chart.




Good to cover mean reversion shorts down here.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2012)

I read your previous post about using STW but couldn't work out any advantage.  XAO suits me ok.  Not so gappy, so it charts more easily.


----------



## Trembling Hand (11 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I read your previous post about using STW but couldn't work out any advantage.  XAO suits me ok.  Not so gappy, so it charts more easily.




XAO..... you might as well use a line chart.


----------



## sinner (11 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I read your previous post about using STW but couldn't work out any advantage.  XAO suits me ok.  Not so gappy, so it charts more easily.




GB, this shows a poor understanding of the market you are trading in.

The reason behind XAOs apparent lack of gappiness is something you need to research a lot more. I actually thought we had been over this conversation already in another thread.

There is a big difference between charting the traded prices of a contract over time, versus charting the output of an indexing equation.


----------



## sinner (11 July 2012)

Look what I found

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23470&p=659585&viewfull=1#post659585
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23470&p=659610&viewfull=1#post659610


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2012)

I think institutions use XAO and XJO for their charting.  I'm not trading the index, I'm using it as a signal, as they would.


----------



## CanOz (11 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think institutions use XAO and XJO for their charting.  I'm not trading the index, I'm using it as a signal, as they would.




I thought futures lead the equities, arb traders even up the index by buying and selling the constituents and then the index is a resulting indicator?

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (11 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The ones that move the markets factor all the news into the charts, so I don't have to.






Gringotts Bank said:


> I think institutions use XAO and XJO for their charting.  I'm not trading the index, I'm using it as a signal, as they would.




So......... its all in the charts yet your charts are not actual traded prices but* phantom numbers* made up by a decision at the ASX for simplicity?! 

No wonder TA doesn't work.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 July 2012)

Not sure canoz.

Encouraging close.  A glimmer of green would be nice.

SYR.  Also banks and telcos look solid.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

Will start in the green, just slightly by the looks, despite DJI falls overnight.

Another undecided day I reckon.  No action for me today unless yesterdays low of 4116 gets broken in a hurry.


----------



## CanOz (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Will start in the green, just slightly by the looks, despite DJI falls overnight.
> 
> Another undecided day I reckon.  No action for me today unless yesterdays low of 4116 gets broken in a hurry.




S&P finished even actually, expecting a normal day.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> S&P finished even actually, expecting a normal day.




I have DJI -48 overnight from two different sources.


----------



## blue0810 (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> ...... expecting a normal day.



For my broker .I suppose


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I have DJI -48 overnight from two different sources.




youre both right

......SML was slightly neg, OEX slight +, RUT slight -, NDX fugly.....they look good to chop up from here with some sucker news annocs to play with


----------



## Struzball (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Will start in the green, just slightly by the looks, despite DJI falls overnight.
> 
> Another undecided day I reckon.  No action for me today unless yesterdays low of 4116 gets broken in a hurry.




Looks broken in a hurry to me. Almost reached the trend line from 2007 peak.  I wonder if it will even bother testing it?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

Yes that was quick enough for me to enter 3 sell orders struz.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

1 sold.  Other two sells just hovering there at the top of the queue.

An upside break of either line needed for trend reversal.  Now counting 6 days of red, which is not very usual.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

For today, anything above 4109 represents a very weak attempt at turning up.
Above 4127 a return to upswing.
If my stocks get eaten where they're sitting, that's fine.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

4132.  Removing my sell orders now.  Assuming it's game on.  See how the close goes.


----------



## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 4132.  Removing my sell orders now.  Assuming it's game on.  See how the close goes.





Doesn't seem to be much interest either way right now, volume has dropped off...We're in the middle of past high volume areas where traders mostly agreed on price...in balance for now.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

Volumes are low, yeh.

Today's XAO would do well to stay within or above the triangle.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 July 2012)

Hard to believe that a little over a  year ago we were testing 5100 on the XAO. Here we are now struggling to hold 4220. 




The recent spate of concerns aver the US economy, the Eurozone Sovereign debt issues and the Chinese economy growth rate slowing, has seen the xao fall back again to the lower area of what appears to be a tight channel, currently between 4220 and 4080. This week the doom and gloom made it look like we might test the support area of 4080. However yesterday the news out of China stimulated our market (and the rest of the world). Growth for the last quarter was still 7.6% (down from 8.1% for the previous quarter) so China is now seen to be having a soft landing rather than a crash.

It will be interesting to see the impact of the reporting season coming up. Time to sell or time to buy?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 July 2012)

Monday will close at 4134 (low arrow) or 4154 (high arrow).


----------



## CanOz (15 July 2012)

GB, you ever had a look at Market Profile? 

Check it here: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_profile

I think you find this very appropriate for the analysis you do.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> GB, you ever had a look at Market Profile?
> 
> Check it here: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_profile
> 
> ...




Thanks Can,  Could be handy.  I like the idea of 'day types' and might add that in once I've understood it better.


----------



## sinner (15 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> GB, you ever had a look at Market Profile?
> 
> Check it here: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_profile
> 
> ...




Doesn't Market Profile require mapping volume against traded prices? How would that work on GBs XAO chart?


----------



## CanOz (15 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Doesn't Market Profile require mapping volume against traded prices? How would that work on GBs XAO chart?




It would not of course. You need bid ask data that only comes from the futures. My point  is that perhaps GB would be interested in exploring a method that would give him more insight into the support and resistance that exists from the auction market process instead of just the resulting index.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (15 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks Can,  Could be handy.  I like the idea of 'day types' and might add that in once I've understood it better.




After months of using the tape and the DOM to try and time entry I felt that I needed something to help identify these levels in the markets that seem to draw a response from market participants other than the locals. Once I started to look at market profile it was clear this is the tool to provide this insight. Obviously I still have not figured out how to apply this profitably in intraday trading, but none the less it is the point of study that I feel offers the most potential for understanding what many have learned to intuitively observe in the auction process.

Cheers,

 CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 July 2012)

4154, as advertised.  I like that it got there quickly, market only just finished opening. Bigger resistance looming 4171 today becomes 4164 tomorrow.  That will be interesting.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 July 2012)

Banks looking great.  NAB, BEN, BOQ etc.

SLX is a high tight flag, so I'm buying that.

I think we might have another big green candle tomorrow on the Ords, led by the financials.


----------



## Julia (16 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Banks looking great.  NAB, BEN, BOQ etc.
> 
> SLX is a high tight flag, so I'm buying that.
> 
> I think we might have another big green candle tomorrow on the Ords, led by the financials.



Do you have a preference for the smaller banks over the big four?  If so, can you say why?


----------



## Boggo (16 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Banks looking great.  NAB, BEN, BOQ etc.




You may be right GB but I am not seeing anything convincing yet on any of those, all of them need a few strong days to show any signs of a reversal imo.
So far today BEN got to within 2 cents of its recent high but then got hit (Fri chart below).

(click to expand)


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 July 2012)

Julia said:


> Do you have a preference for the smaller banks over the big four?  If so, can you say why?




Not really Julia.  Just that many of the banks' charts are showing nicely spaced higher lows (ANZ and BEN the best examples).  While they were on the brink of breaking out this morning, as Boggo says, many have pulled back this afternoon.  They still look ok but I'll just stick with SLX and see how that goes.


----------



## skc (16 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> They still look ok but I'll just stick with SLX and see how that goes.




Big news expected from SLX re US approving some uranium "laser". 



Smells like a good candidate to sell the news imho.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 July 2012)

Number Two: Why not use your knowledge of the future to play the stock markets? We could make trillions.
Dr. Evil: Why make a trillion when we could make... billions?
Scott: A trillion's more than a billion, numbnuts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 July 2012)

I'll go with 4130 today.  A pause for the cause.  We've been less reactive than the Dow for a while now, in both directions.

edit: upside limit would be 10 points today (4153).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 July 2012)

Financial index up +31
Metals and mining down -5.

If I can offload some stock I'll buy ANZ and BEN today.  Holding SLX for the moment but the breakout of the high flag is uninspiring at the moment.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Bigger resistance looming 4171 today becomes 4164 tomorrow.  That will be interesting.




Really pushing that resistance [4164] with a lot of confidence.   Best it's looked in 2 months.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 July 2012)

Banks still keeping things afloat.  Gold smashed, not good for my IAU.

4160 == a return to the resistance line, which is now support.

Nothing to expect today.


----------



## skc (19 July 2012)

ASX expiry day always brings out these funny pre-open prices that fluctuates between very high and very low for the biggests stocks. A glance at the market map you can see it flickers like a xmas tree from one minute to the next.

Can someone please describe in simple words what is actually happening and the rationale behind it?

Please don't say market maniupulation...


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 July 2012)

skc said:


> ASX expiry day always brings out these funny pre-open prices that fluctuates between very high and very low for the biggests stocks. A glance at the market map you can see it flickers like a xmas tree from one minute to the next.
> 
> Can someone please describe in simple words what is actually happening and the rationale behind it?
> 
> Please don't say market maniupulation...




All the arb trades (stocks & futs) and oppy trades (stocks & options) for the last month/quarter are being unwound. So you have a large volume of business wanting to be done on the open. Basically the bids and offers will be put out there with the hope they will get matched by someone wanting to unwind an opposite position or open an opposite position and take some easy volume. That will result in swings as hopeful bid/offers are matched or pulled as we get closer to open.

No manipulation. Just boys doing boring business, executing trades.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 July 2012)

Switch on your long systems.  Smooth seas ahead.


----------



## skc (19 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> All the arb trades (stocks & futs) and oppy trades (stocks & options) for the last month/quarter are being unwound. So you have a large volume of business wanting to be done on the open. Basically the bids and offers will be put out there with the hope they will get matched by someone wanting to unwind an opposite position or open an opposite position and take some easy volume. That will result in swings as hopeful bid/offers are matched or pulled as we get closer to open.
> 
> No manipulation. Just boys doing boring business, executing trades.




I thought that is what happens. It is somewhat "gentlemanly" for all the instos to do their trades on open, as opposed try to execute their way to better VWAP through the day. I guess volume matters more to them than price and risk...

But for a small retail guy like me I can buy/sell if the opening price happens to be unbalanced and steal a few pips. In fact, I think with a good scan and automated system you can make very good money over the 12 days per year when this happens.


----------



## sammy84 (20 July 2012)

Some very basing promising basing patterns in the financials. IFL, BOQ and SUN take my interest. CBA has already broken out (unfortunately I was stopped out of a CBA trade a few days ago). 

History shows that recently financials lead the way when a new up-trend develops. Materials follow after. Hopefully something is in the making.

Chart below has XAO on top, financials middle and materials at the bottom.


----------



## nulla nulla (20 July 2012)

It will be interesting today to see whether the xao can breakout above the recent channel or whether it will falter as profit takers cash out, expecting a retrace and a drop back toward 4100(ish).


----------



## tinhat (20 July 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> It will be interesting today to see whether the xao can breakout above the recent channel or whether it will falter as profit takers cash out, expecting a retrace and a drop back toward 4100(ish).
> 
> View attachment 47998




It's not very often that the XAO breaks out above the upper bollinger band (2 std, 20 days) without retracing. If there is not an immediate retracement there may be a week of exuberance before a correction back to the trend line.


----------



## nulla nulla (21 July 2012)

No break out yesterday. Looked possible early but not enough consolidation and flow on support, faded into the finish to give up a few points.




The overseas markets gave up a good chunk of the weeks gains all closing down. The european situation isn't going away anytime soon and the underpinning weakness of the U.S (employment, housing & debt) is unlikely to allow the DOW to keep rising like a loaf of bread with too much yeast. 
I suspect we will have a slide early next week on the xao and retest the 4150 levels and lower.

PS. I went to the "Trading & Investing Seminar's & Expo" in Sydney yesterday morning. Sat in on the Alan Hull season "Creating Wealth through timing the market" and Marcus Padley's "Ten things you need to know about the Stock Market". IMO Hull had his act together and gave a good overview about where the market is likely to go in the next few years. Padley was a little disorganised and ran out of time, skipping through much of his material. Both were promoting their new book sales. Some interesting stall set up as well. Etrade, IB, Lincoln & Metastock among others. IC Markets had a setup demonstrating currency trading.  All interesting but I got the general feeling they are aiming at a younger demographic then me.


----------



## sinner (23 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Switch on your long systems.  Smooth seas ahead.




Hmmm...funny...mean reversion still paying those of us using actual traded prices...







Still holding them IAUs?


----------



## skc (23 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Still holding them IAUs?




Be nice Sinner... that was not something GB or anyone could have foreseen. I am sure we've all hit these nasties in our trading career - and if you haven't you know it's just around the corner.


----------



## sinner (23 July 2012)

skc said:


> Be nice Sinner... that was not something GB or anyone could have foreseen. I am sure we've all hit these nasties in our trading career - and if you haven't you know it's just around the corner.




Serious concern there from me about the IAUs skc - today was pretty rough! As a past holder it's a stock of interest and opens are usually what I watch. I sold out when they sold Caposo to TRY. Apologies to GB if it sounded not nice. 

I've been there, picking bottoms in EURNZD 2009 and watching my stops slip hundreds of pips in crap liquidity!


----------



## nulla nulla (23 July 2012)

down to 4160 in one day. A bit earlier than I expected.




I hope it can hold above 4106 tomorrow. If not the next support level is 4085?


----------



## sinner (23 July 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> down to 4160 in one day. A bit earlier than I expected.
> 
> I hope it can hold above 4106 tomorrow. If not the next support level is 4085?




Strong AUD is just not letting up and starting to work it's way into the longer term decision making and competitiveness around exports/imports which seems to now be affecting Resources in the same way it has usually been affecting Industrials.

Meanwhile Financials are loving it, well up on the year.

Generally if this were a liquidation event would expecting to see higher correlations across sectors. For example Utilities have seemed to benefit from global momentum in the sector as well as local defensive demand, so they're up too.  

Investors aren't "panicking out of stocks and into liquidity" they are (for now) following single name/sector momentum and fundamentals. Prefer to cover shorts down here and wait for a breakout or range fade signal.


----------



## drsmith (23 July 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> I hope it can hold above 4106 tomorrow. If not the next support level is 4085?



The 10-year bond rate in Spain could be a drain.

Now over 7.5%, it's inflicting pain.


----------



## skc (23 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Serious concern there from me about the IAUs skc - today was pretty rough! As a past holder it's a stock of interest and opens are usually what I watch. I sold out when they sold Caposo to TRY. Apologies to GB if it sounded not nice.
> 
> I've been there, picking bottoms in EURNZD 2009 and watching my stops slip hundreds of pips in crap liquidity!





Apologies for mis-reading your tone. Hard thing to do over the internet. Rough day for anyone holding materials really.



sinner said:


> Strong AUD is just not letting up and starting to work it's way into the longer term decision making and competitiveness around exports/imports which seems to now be affecting Resources in the same way it has usually been affecting Industrials.
> 
> Meanwhile Financials are loving it, well up on the year.
> 
> ...




I agree and it's very interesting - last August the panic was indiscriminant and utilities and REITs were sold off all the same. This year you find stables (WOW / WES / CCL), high paper yielders (TTS / TAH / TLS), REITs, infrastructures all at yearly highs. I am not sure I share the same optimism on these sectors - they are of lower risks but probably not by much at their current price levels.


----------



## sinner (23 July 2012)

skc said:


> Apologies for mis-reading your tone. Hard thing to do over the internet. Rough day for anyone holding materials really.




I saw BLD didn't clean up too good either 



> I agree and it's very interesting - last August the panic was indiscriminant and utilities and REITs were sold off all the same. This year you find stables (WOW / WES / CCL), high paper yielders (TTS / TAH / TLS), REITs, infrastructures all at yearly highs. I am not sure I share the same optimism on these sectors - they are of lower risks but probably not by much at their current price levels.




It's all about global interest rates at the moment for these sectors.

Perspective A:
If you are a big pension fund manager who has defined benefits of N% and the current yield on a global sov bond portfolio is N/3% then you will buy yield wherever you can get it (upto your allocation allowance obviously). If global Utilities ETF is yielding N+0.5% then that is gold, right? Your mandate is to meet the benefit for a number of years, not turn a capital gain.

Perspective B:
If you are a big pension fund manager in a country like Spain or Italy where rates are going up then global Utilities can provide some de-correlated returns (equities vs bonds) with similar yield.

and then some momo monkeys hop on for the ride.

Not saying it's a good idea...only what I think the drivers are.


----------



## Ves (23 July 2012)

skc said:


> I agree and it's very interesting - last August the panic was indiscriminant and utilities and REITs were sold off all the same. This year you find stables (WOW / WES / CCL), high paper yielders (TTS / TAH / TLS), REITs, infrastructures all at yearly highs. I am not sure I share the same optimism on these sectors - they are of lower risks but probably not by much at their current price levels.



I'm finding it much harder to find entries  (I allocate an amount each month) into anything on my watchlist lately. Stocks that at least I consider quality are resilient at the moment.  Still looking for an opportunity this month, it could be the first time since I started (perhaps I'm getting less eager to just buy something) that I look like carrying an amount over to the next month. It's actually not a bad feeling, feels like my decision making is becoming clearer and less imbued with emotions. Plenty of stocks that might be ok for a short-term bounce have come up, but I try not to deal in those, because I don't trust my overall accuracy over that period.


----------



## nulla nulla (24 July 2012)

Ves said:


> I'm finding it much harder to find entries  (I allocate an amount each month) into anything on my watchlist lately. Stocks that at least I consider quality are resilient at the moment.  Still looking for an opportunity this month, it could be the first time since I started (perhaps I'm getting less eager to just buy something) that I look like carrying an amount over to the next month. It's actually not a bad feeling, feels like my decision making is becoming clearer and less imbued with emotions. Plenty of stocks that might be ok for a short-term bounce have come up, but I try not to deal in those, because I don't trust my overall accuracy over that period.




Apart from three smaller long term anchor parcels (2 wbc & 1 syd) we are completely cashed out as at close of trade Friday 13/7/12 (first time in three years). 
All our traders are holding recent highs and we are waiting for retraces to get back in. Given the resurgence of the european sovereign debt issues (Spain) we are not in a hurry and are happy to wait for better opportunities. 

Mind you, if I was a shorter, there are some opportunites in reit's, infrastructure and finance atm imo.


----------



## sinner (24 July 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Mind you, if I was a shorter, there are some opportunites in reit's, infrastructure and finance atm imo.




This opinion is based on your channel analysis, right?


----------



## nulla nulla (24 July 2012)

sinner said:


> This opinion is based on your channel analysis, right?




Channel analysis, news and opinion of irrational changes that have spiked some shares. syd retraced 7c today. would have been a good short, tighter now though.


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Switch on your long systems.  Smooth seas ahead.




looks like some sails can be retrimmed......4375 xjo looks good......

any particular level you think we can achieve from here?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> looks like some sails can be retrimmed......4375 xjo looks good......
> 
> any particular level you think we can achieve from here?




Hi.  Today's hammer and a close of 4152 would keep the breakout of 19-7-12 intact.  If it stays below that, I'd have to say the breakout might fail.  New overhead, at approx. 4225.  What's your view?


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi.  Today's hammer and a close of 4152 would keep the breakout of 19-7-12 intact.  If it stays below that, I'd have to say the breakout might fail.  New overhead, at approx. 4225.  What's your view?




on the XAO....gotchya......

there's inverted h&s's far as the eye can see including the xjo and spx, so that's a second reason to stick with the upside plan......that plus the sentiment is way too heavy......the exact levels are fudgeable and the xjo target ratio of 4375(ish) is a 100% of the left shoulder to head and other orthodox patterning appear to be playing out which keeps our risk levels fairly close at hand right now.......still in a very large distribution set-up as far i am reading the plays......should be some very good short to med term plays for fair value stocks


----------



## nulla nulla (25 July 2012)

The xao reacted badly to the International markets last night. With the dow down a further 120 in after market trading it was no surprise when the xao headed for 4100. Fortunately it found support at 4114 and the miners and finance sector staged a slow recovery. Once again investors bailed out of mining for safe havens in yield producing shares like the reit's, telstra and to some extent wow (and later in the day banking). As previously stated I think a few of these are now at a premium and I'm curious to see how long they can hold their recent highs.




It will be interesting to see where the International markets go tonight. Spain is grabbing the headlines but the Greece situation is sticking its' head up again in the background and a lot of investors are obviously panicking.


----------



## kid hustlr (27 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> on the XAO....gotchya......
> 
> there's inverted h&s's far as the eye can see including the xjo and spx, so that's a second reason to stick with the upside plan......that plus the sentiment is way too heavy......the exact levels are fudgeable and the xjo target ratio of 4375(ish) is a 100% of the left shoulder to head and other orthodox patterning appear to be playing out which keeps our risk levels fairly close at hand right now.......still in a very large distribution set-up as far i am reading the plays......should be some very good short to med term plays for fair value stocks




Are you still seeing this? I think I agree.

Big miners/energy are looking for support and the banks seem full steam ahead so perhaps there is a little bit of life in the short/medium term?? Also TLS which is like the anti trend had a decent range bar down today after having a go at getting to $4 so maybe some fundies are looking to cyclical out of defensives and into growth?

If we push to 4400ish on the XJO does your longer term distribution theory still hold or does it change things?


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 July 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Are you still seeing this? I think I agree.
> 
> Big miners/energy are looking for support and the banks seem full steam ahead so perhaps there is a little bit of life in the short/medium term?? Also TLS which is like the anti trend had a decent range bar down today after having a go at getting to $4 so maybe some fundies are looking to cyclical out of defensives and into growth?
> 
> If we push to 4400ish on the XJO does your longer term distribution theory still hold or does it change things?




we're in the usual lackadaisical day of upwards churn on the back of o/s momentum.....even without the euro shpiel last night i think we need to go up and at least retest the zone where selling enters most across the board.....we would need to break upside in an impulsive manner but even then, with recent patterning suggesting we're in large cyclic exiting, i think, we are likely to get another cupla head fakes before we can make a solid low....everytime these "other view" ideas come into shape they just fall apart and cement never seems to dry.......my best guess is to be on very small time scales with any plays unless there's a stock play at fair value with higher than historic yield on offer in which case the volatility is a negligible factor.....


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 July 2012)

.....i got long the xjo cfd at 4145 yesterday and closed 1/3 today at 4190.....i think we can get a lot higher in the index  but it's tenuous action and for mine not an endorsement to buy anything......


----------



## kid hustlr (27 July 2012)

Ya well said Joules.

TLS actually finished slightly in the green today but did see some resistance on higher volume fwiw.

Have a good weekend.


----------



## nulla nulla (27 July 2012)

Todays recovery/rebound is probably artifical based on irrational exuberance because some dork came out and said "we will not let the euro fail". 
With respect, they only have so much capital they can use to bail out the likes of Greece, Portugal & Spain from their soveriegn irresponsibility and from the sounds of it the capital is going to run out before they get arround to saving italy. Ooops!!




Next week will be interesting. Will the shorters come back and push down through the stop losses of the enthuisiastic overly exuberant buyers of today, causing a sell down? Or have they closed out their shorts and retreated leaving the xao to break out upwards?


----------



## sinner (27 July 2012)

More evidence of the AUD influence, here is MSCI World priced in AUD and NYSE in AUD. The chart's aren't normalised so it's more about correlation than magnitude of moves.






Interesting to note, the AORD is doing much better than either index shown since the start of June!

IIRC 2010s underperformance was due to the announcement of the MRRT. 2012 performance much more inline with international stocks.


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 July 2012)

sinner said:


> More evidence of the *AUD influence*, here is MSCI World priced in AUD and NYSE in AUD. The chart's aren't normalised so it's *more about correlation* than magnitude of moves.
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting to note, the AORD is doing much better than either index shown since the start of June!




poss to expand on that, sinner? 

what is the influence over or on?


----------



## sinner (27 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> poss to expand on that, sinner?
> 
> what is the influence over or on?




One page memory : see post #947


----------



## sinner (31 July 2012)

Important R breached yesterday which has the potential to indicate a regime change. 

i.e. cover active mean reversion shorts and wait for long setups, neutral/bullish bias above 39.5.

Preferable setup is a low volatility drift, I've highlighted some (far from ideal) examples on the ROC(1).

I guess it's also time to size up the momentum portfolio on Friday.




P.S: Anyone holding SLF? I've got some in my super since Feb, doing lovely.


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What's your view?




so far so good, GB

soon as the cash closed, in fact, soon as the 10 min post cash auction was complete the cfd went positive and neever looked back.......the pre-cash spx cfd also went pos well prior to the news annoc, implying by action, that the news was well written into price........buyers engaged albeit on lower volumes......there's a  bunch on technical ideas in the xjo that call for more upside......keeping a close eye on money flows


----------



## tinhat (4 August 2012)

On the monthly chart, the Coppock Indicator has turned positive. Although it has a long lag time, it seems to be discussed a lot by more conservative investors such as Alan Hull and Colin Nicholson.


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 August 2012)

tinhat said:


> On the monthly chart, the Coppock Indicator has turned positive. Although it has a long lag time, it seems to be discussed a lot by more conservative investors such as Alan Hull and Colin Nicholson.




Walter Murphy says of the 35 global indecies he tracks 28 are positive curve, too

edit:

ah...there we go:



> The MSCI All-Country Index fell 0.2% for its second straight decline. The Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 28 of the 35 non-US markets that we follow on a daily basis.



http://www.wminsights.com/Commentary/PublicBlog.aspx


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> so far so good, GB
> 
> soon as the cash closed, in fact, soon as the 10 min post cash auction was complete the cfd went positive and neever looked back.......the pre-cash spx cfd also went pos well prior to the news annoc, implying by action, that the news was well written into price........buyers engaged albeit on lower volumes......there's a  bunch on technical ideas in the xjo that call for more upside......keeping a close eye on money flows
> 
> View attachment 48391




Your target looks safe Joules.

My chart is slightly different.  Can't post it at the moment, but thinking 4330 looks about right as a short to medium term high.


----------



## Joules MM1 (6 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Your target looks safe Joules.
> 
> My chart is slightly different.  Can't post it at the moment, but thinking 4330 looks about right as a short to medium term high.




hows that chart coming along, GB 

xjo cfd hit symmetry resis 4306 precash early this morning and sold off most of the session inviting shorters and weak longs to let go .....i think we'll get through  that level overnight which use to be popular sports a few years ago so no reason we cant continue that tradition


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## Gringotts Bank (6 August 2012)

Joules, I'm liking these parallels because they seem to be getting a few touches.  Last circle is round about 4350... depending how long it takes to get there (since it's sloping).


----------



## nulla nulla (6 August 2012)

The recent highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. On the back of the recent euphoria about the "save the euro" and "U.S jobs" the international markets are spiking again and our xao is having an upward burst. Is it sustainable though?




Or will we do an about face when we reach 4500?


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## Gringotts Bank (9 August 2012)

High of 4347.  I'm thinking this leg might be finished soon.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 August 2012)

Not much of a pull back.  Long again tomorrow.


----------



## Logique (15 August 2012)

This is the chart that has me watching it closely, especially with the price of gold looking well supported at 1600.


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## Trembling Hand (15 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Not much of a pull back.  Long again tomorrow.




GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long *after *the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!! 

Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 August 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long *after *the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!!
> 
> Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!




The big miners and banks are overbought (12 day ROC).  But on occasion, overbought conditions can continue to run.  So I'm looking for another little spurt, because there are a lot of mid cap stocks with big gaps and long green candles and that doesn't tend to happen at a top.


----------



## Joules MM1 (15 August 2012)

Logique said:


> This is the chart that has me watching it closely, especially with the price of gold looking well supported at 1600.




a few challenges of intepretation with these charts......first, low volume can imply low participation not a clear bullish divergence, this looks more like an instrument going into winters rest, a final volume purge might be a signal to get long where......

second both indicia highlighted have a tendency to revert to zero, that is, they'll move back to neutral bias until price levels out, like a concussive effect a skimming stone on water, they are simply mimicing what youre already seeing in the price itself......the bb isnt really telling you anything other than what both highlighted indicia are saying: the evidence is in the price itself

youre trying to nail a bottom here on anecdotal ideas that are (of themselves) yet to be proven, afterall, gold can be said to be holding up at 1600 which is different to finding and testing a low and moving decisively away (up) plus gold was making it's (nominal) new altime highs in sept 11 distinctly not supporting this chart, cdnx

ideas to mull over

edit:

i should say that the indicia reacts in a wider sweep even tho the price swings are much smaller relative to the recent momo of the decline so when you see a divergent signal what youre actually seeing is a commensurate response by the indicia, afterall, the indicia is not linearly connected to length of price only the swing event, imho


----------



## sinner (15 August 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> GB as the great systems designer you are I would love to know what edge you have discovered that tells you to go long *after *the market has ran 200 points in 10 days. Especially considering the last 2 years!!
> 
> Surely if you're looking to get long the edge is an entry at the bottom of the range rather than the top?!




You *can* short-term swing trade the right stocks at the top of the index range:

e.g. http://engineering-returns.com/2010...-trending-stocks-within-an-overbougth-market/

In fact, I do like this sort of setup much more than swinging from the bottom of the range, returns are much better correlated to "bull markets" here which means less concern from me that I'm buying into the start of a trend change.


----------



## Joules MM1 (15 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Joules, I'm liking these parallels because they seem to be getting a few touches.  Last circle is round about 4350... depending how long it takes to get there (since it's sloping).




GB, thanks.......only just saw your chart now.......we're clearly in an upward corrective phase, imho.....thus, if i take orthodox regime such as the wave principal, the 50% level of the upwards channel suits very well as a rejection point (we're there right now) so we have some wood to chop before a bunch of money gets to buying and gives it another spirt upwards.....although i havent studied the xao like the xjo, i'll wager there's a few ratio'd resistances in this zone too as we hit into the vpoc and encounter more selling......

i like this view


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The big miners and banks are overbought (12 day ROC).  But on occasion, overbought conditions can continue to run.  So I'm looking for another little spurt, because there are a lot of mid cap stocks with big gaps and long green candles and that doesn't tend to happen at a top.




strength in today.....slow burn-ups tend to have follow-through.....the US seems to be in a correction within an uptrend and the HSI looks similar...... 

excepting the p!ss poor volumes


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> strength in today.....slow burn-ups tend to have follow-through.....the US seems to be in a correction within an uptrend and the HSI looks similar......
> 
> excepting the p!ss poor volumes




Yeh plenty of stocks moving up freely, but on small vol.  The big red candle on the Ords seems a distant memory.  Indian summer.


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## Joules MM1 (16 August 2012)

hoopla ! XXJ 80+


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 August 2012)

There's been times in the past where you'd buy every stock that rose 6% (at +6%) on high volume, sell at EOD, and make a killing.  It's happening again.  The ease of movement factor is as high as I've ever seen.


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> looks like some sails can be retrimmed......4375 xjo looks good......
> 
> any particular level you think we can achieve from here?




made it and small slap today, looks innocuous enough.....mebe a few sideways days  this week


----------



## tinhat (20 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> made it and small slap today, looks innocuous enough.....mebe a few sideways days  this week




Just looking at my portfolio - CBA and TLS both ex-div today so that is going to put a dampener on the indexes.


----------



## skc (20 August 2012)

tinhat said:


> Just looking at my portfolio - CBA and TLS both ex-div today so that is going to put a dampener on the indexes.




16.4pts on the XJO due to ex-div today. So we are actually up a bit.

Basically the premium between the XJO and SPI tells you there is roughly another 15-20pts in dividend is coming out of the index between now and the Sep expiry.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 August 2012)

I think like the top will be rounded and irregular, rather than sudden and clearly defined.  That means it's still low risk trading environment, IMO.


----------



## skc (22 August 2012)

This is one of the more interesting reporting season I've experienced. Share prices just don't move coherently, even for big caps.

BLD reported crap numbers but was a slight beat - today's range was first down 3% and went almost 1% up.

AMC reported yesterday which was ever so slightly disappointing. It fell 2% before fighting back to be in the green, but today it is sold off over 4% at one stage. Same thing happened to BXB, and looks like happening to AIO as well.

MND up 8% yesterday, down 5% today. ARI up 13% yesterday, down 8% today. QBE went for a 8% range in 3 days.

Suncorp went for large payout with a headline profit that's short of consensus - it first went down 1% but now printing new highs +3.5%. Judging by the track record, it should fall a few % tomorrow.

This all suggest to me that we are at some sort of cross-road. Analysts are adjusting their models and different camps are having pretty different views of the macro future and so are moving stocks accordingly - causing all sorts of funny ripples. But the overall tone still appear to be buy the dips.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 August 2012)

skc said:


> This all suggest to me that we are at some sort of cross-road. Analysts are adjusting their models and different camps are having pretty different views of the macro future and so are moving stocks accordingly - causing all sorts of funny ripples. But the overall tone still appear to be buy the dips.




Yes agree. A lot think we are going nowhere because people are not playing. I don't think thats the reason within Aus based funds, its just that they don't yet agree about which way to play.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 August 2012)

Resources Minister has declared the resources boom over after what happened with BHP.


----------



## CanOz (23 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Resources Minister has declared the resources boom over after what happened with BHP.




What happened to BHP?

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 August 2012)

CanOz said:


> What happened to BHP?
> 
> CanOz




This happened!  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-22/730-mining/4216292?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


----------



## CanOz (23 August 2012)

Oh that lol!


CanOz


----------



## Joules MM1 (23 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think like the top will be rounded and irregular, rather than sudden and clearly defined.




got shorts on xjo....small roll-on with US futes slumping and general sell on back of fed-speak......

edit; looking for 4355 first target, poss buys 4260 only if traffic gets heavy o/s, if xjo falls through there then hohum days for a few weeks


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> got shorts on xjo....small roll-on with US futes slumping and general sell on back of fed-speak......
> 
> edit; looking for 4355 first target, poss buys 4260 only if traffic gets heavy o/s, if xjo falls through there then hohum days for a few weeks




I have 4357 as support.  Not sure after that.  Can't get a feel for it.  Back to the 60's to find my trading mojo.... it's disappeared.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 August 2012)

Kloppers is giving foreign investors a bad impression - or maybe a true impression - but either way, this is poor form.  I think the **** is going to hit the fan.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/taxes-a-drag-on-coal-kloppers-warns-investors-20120823-24oyp.html


----------



## Joules MM1 (24 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Kloppers is giving foreign investors a bad impression - or maybe a true impression - but either way, this is poor form.  I think the **** is going to hit the fan.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/taxes-a-drag-on-coal-kloppers-warns-investors-20120823-24oyp.html




the recently amalgamted Alans-Billy Hydes music empires just went into receivership.......and i just bought a Cole Clarke Limited Ed with Solid Ceder top......might go fishing for some bargains...... 

and that's the state of the music industry, retail anyways




oh my.....

http://www.tonedeaf.com.au/news/loc...520c88d7-Tucker_Bag8_20_2012&utm_medium=email

*Allans & Billy Hyde Go Into Receivership, Vouchers & Deposits Won’t Be Honoured* Written by Al Newstead on 23 August 2012


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## Joules MM1 (24 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I have 4357 as support.  Not sure after that.  Can't get a feel for it.  Back to the 60's to find my trading mojo.... it's disappeared.




way...xjo, actual tradeable moves today .....finally!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> sideways days  ....




Sideways looks right.  Maybe oscillating around 4400 +/- 30.


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sideways looks right.  Maybe oscillating around 4400 +/- 30.




xjo looks more like your gentle roll over is en mode......will do if spx cash can't hold 1398 or the hsi leads lower.....


----------



## tinhat (28 August 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> xjo looks more like your gentle roll over is en mode......will do if spx cash can't hold 1398 or the hsi leads lower.....




This reporting season seems to be more about the individual winners and losers than the overall stock market. My prediction is that, on the XAO weekly chart, the standard MACD (26,12,9) will remain above the signal line through until the end of the calendar year. A good time to adjust portfolios. Caveat: let's see what comes out of the ECB (and to a lesser degree the fed) over the next week or so.


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## Gringotts Bank (30 August 2012)

Nice call Julian.

I'm thinking the yellow line will be the new trend line.  Fairly gentle gradient.


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm thinking the yellow line will be the new trend line.  Fairly gentle gradient.




i've written a long-winded technical reply....seems such ideas are prone to  or even   by anyone not that inclined......so.....a quick summary; a truck load of ratios on the xjo cluster at 4404-4422 ......i suspect we'll revisit the high of last week  while the US sorts itself out and managers here decide to pile in (finally) or sell for cheap(er) yields below the june 4 level


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## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2012)

Joules, ....


----------



## skc (31 August 2012)

No idea where that early morning burst came from 

Well gave me a relatively graceful exit on some so so trades...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2012)

skc said:


> No idea where that early morning burst came from
> 
> Well gave me a relatively graceful exit on some so so trades...




Yesterday XAO broke back down through a support trend line (old resistance) that goes all the way back to Apr 2011.  [the yellow line].  Today's high was just to re-test the legitimacy of that downside break.  Touched on it almost exactly.  To me that means the break isn't too drastic.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 August 2012)

skc said:


> No idea where that early morning burst came from
> 
> Well gave me a relatively graceful exit on some so so trades...




Standard futures trade for the locals come Friday morning. Have a look at all the futs in Asia, Korea, SPI, Tiawan, Honkers (Japas data messed them up). Easy money on a Friday of a down week - Buy the gap down and hold till the punters start pulling up charts to explain it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Standard futures trade for the locals come Friday morning. Have a look at all the futs in Asia, Korea, SPI, Tiawan, Honkers (Japas data messed them up). Easy money on a Friday of a down week - Buy the gap down and hold till the punters start pulling up charts to explain it.




Why don't you make some live calls on your 'easy money'?  Then when you get it wrong I can come along with a chart and show you where you F'd up!


----------



## tech/a (31 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Why don't you make some live calls on your 'easy money'?  Then when you get it wrong I can come along with a chart and show you where you F'd up!




It is a live call
He's fading the gap down on open.
He'd be in and gone before you analysed a chart.
Check your charts and youll see he was right!


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Why don't you make some live calls on your 'easy money'?  Then when you get it wrong I can come along with a chart and show you where you F'd up!




I did make a call in the Int. Banter thread if you would like to follow that up with a chart BUT I'm too busy taking money off retail. But you wouldn't have much to post...


----------



## skc (31 August 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Standard futures trade for the locals come Friday morning. Have a look at all the futs in Asia, Korea, SPI, Tiawan, Honkers (Japas data messed them up). Easy money on a Friday of a down week - Buy the gap down and hold till the punters start pulling up charts to explain it.




OK. I will be the punter every Friday and you fade the move when I post a chart... we share the profits. Deal?


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 August 2012)

skc said:


> OK. I will be the punter every Friday and you fade the move when I post a chart... we share the profits. Deal?




Its a pattern that makes some sense. Back in the good old days, 2005-07, Friday arvos used to be reverse action of the previous week on the SPI as strong swing traders closed out their week. Thats all but gone now but you still see action like this morning. You're short all week and you are presented with a nice down open, thanks to the US. What are you going to do? Close. Of cause the props will front run you....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2012)

Now here's something that can actually be used!

Dominant up-trending channel in black bold.  Lesser down-trending channel in white.  Old res/sup trend line in yellow.

Today's high touched the yellow line almost exactly, as explained in an earlier post today.  Today's low touched the lower part of the dominant channel exactly, and this can be anticipated because it is the parallel of the upper black line which has 3 touches.  So both these trend lines can be drawn the day before.  I expect the white channel will need to be broken before we try to retest old highs.  I think the white channel will continue into next week.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 August 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> So both these trend lines can be drawn the day before.




How?

you have only drawn them AFTER they have happened.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 August 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> How?
> 
> you have only drawn them AFTER they have happened.




The top black line gets 3 touches (from highs) on the 21/8/12.  That makes it fairly reliable.  So from _that _date you can look for a channel which will be any line parallel to that first line, but lower down the chart.  I took the low of 25/7/12 and just extended it to the right.  Any low pivot can work.

The yellow line has been sitting there for ages.

The white channel I am constantly re-drawing each day if necessary.  For channels to be useful as a signal, the gradient needs to be a bit steeper than what it is at present, and with more touches.  In other words, I think the black channel is still dominant.


----------



## nulla nulla (1 September 2012)

Is this a signal that the party is over or that someone decided now might be a good time to lock in some profits just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 September 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Is this a signal that the party is over or that someone decided now might be a good time to lock in some profits just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?




part i

essentially youve drawn some random lines on a chart.......you need to show relationships that might, at the least, give context and in this daily view you'll need to look further back to find evidence that friday saw a first move down, which i dont think is true, not yet........after reading your post i decided to do some cash hour ratios on the XJO.......the ratios i found show that the 4394 low was a 127.2 low extension from the 4403 high in a simple abc move down and this is a simple sign of an interruption in an unfinished move up.......i suspect the index still has another leg upto 4447-4455 zone where i find several resistances......

this looks like a simple pul back which is vulnerable to o/s influences given how evenly divided opinion is on managers buying and selling and the range we're in......to me, this makes sense, broadly speaking


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 September 2012)

part ii

to ratify the low last week i also looked at the relationship since the 3985 XJO low and find there are several ratios that all call for last weeks low to be a constructive building block for another leg higher daily basis......a closing 30 mintue bar below that level would tend to change that view


as you can see there a number of diff ratios (the math are not all specific to one author as practised by some traders as i dont think single mathemtaic structures ever tell the true picture as they attempt to single-file lock in a single view of price which cannot be done....at least i've never seen it done and i strongly doubt exists.....)

"4330-4267 170" means if you take the 4330 high to the 4267 low and ratio that to the 4403 high 4303 is 170%
"4176-4063 100" means if you take the high to low you get 100% to 4303 etc etc......

while the numbers arent to the pin, meaning they wont be definitive on a calculator, they are in the tight enough cluster to form a significant level of support into the 4303 zone for last week.......it merely allows me to define the impact of holding or breaking that level

and to see if your comment had any validity i looked even further back to the whole structure since the cash low of XJO 3766


there are at least 4 ratios that call for a halt to the upside at 4447-4455 zone and these stem from the 3766 low in 2011 ......
whether these are magnet ratios i have no idea, i am merely using them as a reference of interference in the current  up-phase and not as an aggressive idea to position to get short rather to plan for an exit if long at that point as it's also a there-abouts zone that a 6 year old could guess as a reversal point........

given that the COT report for the S&P500 is fairly balanced for major hedgers, that is, no large one-sided bets on the last report and given that the XJO can travel 2% on a hard night when the SPX has only achived a 1% i am inclined to think with the long weekend ahead (short weeks are historically a pos bias period) we'll hang up here for while......

the point is, there are numbers to refer to....these can change in a moment and require an action to agree with that......... while ratios can be boohood, theyre simply evidence......


----------



## nulla nulla (3 September 2012)

You are right. Its just a chart with lines on it. Six month chart, short term trend lines and channels. Here is the three year chart, same lines, longer term trends and channels.




In light of what is being splashed around the media, influencing sentiment, about what is going on in: Europe, U.S.A and China (just for the biggest influences on global markets) the question (in banter format) still stands.

Is this a signal (this weeks retrace) that the (recent rebound) party is over or that someone (more than one?) decided now might be a good time to lock in some profits, just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 September 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> Here is the three year chart, same lines, longer term trends and channels.
> 
> ....just in case all the doom sayers might be onto something?




thanks......the xjo has just tested that low of last week and the US futes have done the same on extremely low volume, a hook......

another drop through here today and we're headed much lower.....i think we're headed higher....at least this week


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## Gringotts Bank (3 September 2012)

decent swing into the green, nudging yesterday's high.  Both the upper and lower limits of the white channel on my last chart will be tested today, by the looks.  Interesting!


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Interesting!




 	 2:30pm 	AUD 	

Cash Rate


	2:30pm 	AUD 	

RBA Rate Statement

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2012)

The white channel is now clearly dominant.  Hasn't needed tweaking since it started.  The big black line is at 4274.  If that gets broken, exit all long positions!


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## Joules MM1 (5 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> edit; looking for 4355 first target, poss buys 4260 only if traffic gets heavy o/s, if xjo falls through there then hohum days for a few weeks




we got there...holding 4260 level xjo....do die or suck a very fat kumera......


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## Gringotts Bank (6 September 2012)

4340, is an upside break of the channel, but it won't last.  We'll finish the day back at 4333.  Can't buy this.


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## tech/a (6 September 2012)

Why not the AUD is weakening against the Euro.
Exports look better.


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## Gringotts Bank (6 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Why not the AUD is weakening against the Euro.
> Exports look better.




I'm open to any and all opinions.  What do you like?  What stocks?

All I can see is SBM which I already have.


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2012)

Nothing

Not trading stock YET.

Havent even set up a list of prospects.
Not wanting to park my money long term into anything just now.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm open to any and all opinions.  What do you like?  What stocks?
> 
> All I can see is SBM which I already have.




GB do you trade discretionary or systematically?


----------



## tech/a (6 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nothing
> 
> Not trading stock YET.
> 
> ...




Do have TGA but thats only a small parcel (10K)


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## Gringotts Bank (6 September 2012)

tech/a said:


> Nothing
> 
> Not trading stock YET.
> 
> ...




Righto.  

@TH, My best system doesn't give all that many signals, so mainly discretionary. Breakout around horizontal res, trend lines, sometimes patterns.  Basic stuff.


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## Joules MM1 (7 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> we got there...holding 4260 level xjo....do die or suck a very fat kumera......




and spx making an outside weekly up bar....o/n downside bets are all squished on xjo .... cfd holding 4348 as i type


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## Trembling Hand (7 September 2012)

Who turned on the opposite switch for the ASX today?




lol!


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## tinhat (7 September 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Who turned on the opposite switch for the ASX today?
> 
> View attachment 48874
> 
> ...




Yeah, XAO a real fizzer but check out FMG and MGX for example. Quite a relief rally going off.


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## Gringotts Bank (7 September 2012)

Today is a channel break so weak you'd almost call it a fail.   So I'm shifting my short term lines (white) to include today's upper wick.  Makes the gradient less again.  So it looks like a slow decline for the mo, imo, yo.


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## skc (7 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Today is a channel break so weak you'd almost call it a fail.   So I'm shifting my short term lines (white) to include today's upper wick.  Makes the gradient less again.  So it looks like a slow decline for the mo, imo, yo.




If you shift the line's gradient like that, how do you use the channel for trading?


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## Gringotts Bank (7 September 2012)

skc said:


> If you shift the line's gradient like that, how do you use the channel for trading?




I basically do what Bulkowski does and see how many *stock *charts look bullish.  If there's a lot, then the xao line break means buy.  If there's very few (like yesterday), then I'm expecting either false break, or a weak break or none at all.  Today I'd say is a weak/false break with that long wick.  SO I'm not expecting any continuation.  Therefore I move my lines to include the wick.  If today and yesterday were full of bullish stock charts, I'd keep the old lines the way they were and trade off that.


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## CanOz (7 September 2012)

tinhat said:


> ?... but check out FMG and MGX for example. Quite a relief rally going off.




Someones going to need some rebar soon!


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## notting (7 September 2012)

Jobs report in US pretty bad.  
Easing is almost a sure thing now for next week.
Sell on the day, I'd say, if we keep rallying into it.
Gold is kind of weak given the Euro rally vs US$.
Could get a bit of a lift out of this.


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## notting (10 September 2012)

I don't have a clue as to why the banks are dragging on the market at present?:dunno:
I guess that makes them all a buy unless someone has a better idea?


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## CanOz (10 September 2012)

notting said:


> I don't have a clue as to why the banks are dragging on the market at present?:dunno:
> I guess that makes them all a buy unless someone has a better idea?




Bad loans?


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## notting (10 September 2012)

Unless of course there is something most unsavoury melting in the pot. :bounce:
It would be funny if the German judges had all bet their fortunes in a secret trust as shorts against the market and decide to rule against ECB bond buying.


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## tinhat (11 September 2012)

notting said:


> I don't have a clue as to why the banks are dragging on the market at present?:dunno:
> I guess that makes them all a buy unless someone has a better idea?




IMHO the big four are all fully priced at the moment. I've got a lot of bank stocks in the SMSF - big proportion of the portfolio is in three of the four big banks (mainly CBA). I bought them with the assumption of no earnings growth in the short term, and in fact earnings growth is only likely to be at about inflation for the next couple of years anyway - how much cost cutting can you do? But then which of the blue chip defensives have earnings growth forecasts that are much above inflation at the moment? If you were purely a yield chaser then NAB is the only one that looks attractive at the moment - but there is no dividend due from them until the end of the year.

There are still worries in the market about BASEL requirements, the banks large reliance on off shore funding and the Australian residential property market. The outlook for further interest rate easing over the current cycle may be seen as a risk to banks margins? Overseas investors have probably gone a bit bearish on Australia of late too.


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## Reece1 (11 September 2012)

Hi all

I have traded the SP500 for over 18 months now.

I am looking to move into the asian markets ans trade the SPI 200

when trading the emini i used the OEX as a lead indicator aswell as SPX, MID 400, DJ30 for furtherconformation

Im interested in similar way to trade the SPI 200

I know XTL is the top 20 blue chips and this would be similar to the OEX and XJO would be similar to the SPX

is there any other indexes out there that have an influence over the SPI 200

such as the XMD mid cap 50, XAO all ordinaries

and obviously BHP CBA would have a big influence


Thanks for the help

looking forward to make the transition into the Asian markets


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## Trembling Hand (11 September 2012)

Reece1 said:


> is there any other indexes out there that have an influence over the SPI 200
> 
> looking forward to make the transition into the Asian markets




The other Asian indexes. HSI, Kospi, Nikkei, China.

I wouldn't bother looking at ASX sub indexes. Mostly they are laggers.

By the way SPI sux.


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## Reece1 (11 September 2012)

thanks mate 

I wouldnt say it sux intraday plenty of good moves most days.

XTL seems to have an influence over SPI at medium degree support and resistance

been trading it for the last 2 weeks with success so far

same patterns as the SP as far as I can see just a bit slow.


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## Trembling Hand (11 September 2012)

Reece1 said:


> I wouldnt say it sux intraday plenty of good moves most days.
> 
> just a bit slow.




Well maybe but wait till you get a week of daily ranges less than 20 ticks and see what that does to your equity curve.


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## Reece1 (11 September 2012)

well Ill have to deal with that when it comes

thanks for the insight tho


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## Reece1 (12 September 2012)

Interesting to see how the SPI opens this morning, it closed on support in overnight trade intraday (well broke it by 1 tick)

will they run it higher today in anticipation of the FOMC and the court decision on the ESM over the next 2 days

if they cant run it higher from the open I would expect another range bound morning 

but anything is possible


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## Gringotts Bank (12 September 2012)

The original channel (white) had 5 hits so should have stayed where it was.  

I re-drew it in my last post because most *stock *charts looked lacklustre.  Most charts _still do _look a little weak, and so I probably should be trading either SPI or the Aussie200 CFD with this approach, because these instruments are more technically predictable than individual stocks, and much more liquid.

So I'm re-drawing it as it was with the breakout on the 7-9-12.  A narrow channel, with a height of approx. 50 points, added to the breakout price of 4348 gives approx 4400 as a target (red line).

Opportunity missed. I'll get the next one.


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## Joules MM1 (12 September 2012)

using a generic cash chart to leave out the bogus overnight swings in the cfd, the h/s pattern i emailed continues to play out, an extension can be worked based on the left shoulder horizontal or diagonal levels to find an exhaustion point
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
......


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> using a generic cash chart to leave out the bogus overnight swings in the cfd, the h/s pattern i emailed continues to play out, an extension can be worked based on the left shoulder horizontal or diagonal levels to find an exhaustion point
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I can see the pattern you're talking about Joules (on your chart) but I can't replicate that on the daily weekly or monthly.  

You're bullish up to what sort of target price?


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I can see the pattern you're talking about Joules (on your chart) but I can't replicate that on the daily weekly or monthly.
> 
> You're bullish up to what sort of target price?




few days ago on here i said we'd re-attack the 4400 level.....even if its to simply distribute......we are just about due some rotations in markets .....interestingly, with things like copper making a sort-of tech break-out and what could be gold exhaustion in the next few days and bonds going into equities we could get drahged up higher still, but, i kinda like the shape the xjo has been making for us to go anther trip downsouth after a false break-out above here with assitance of the hsi.....on the euro news release the xjo was pathetic and today we look good pre-empting the bernank release which i think will be much ado about zip, little on qe......

the aussie market has the challenge of the dollar and if it gets stronger (i suspect so) is likely to keep a foot on the throat 

not keen to get big on any opinion......


----------



## tinhat (12 September 2012)

How many times have we hit 4400 on the XAO since the september 2011 bottom eh? And every time I say to myself "sell everything" but never do.


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 September 2012)

tinhat said:


> How many times have we hit 4400 on the XAO since the september 2011 bottom eh? And every time I say to myself "sell everything" but never do.




don't sell this time just because you didnt then.......


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## Joules MM1 (13 September 2012)

bah, flat day.....

RUT and SML both  look bullish and futes holding up, i'm watching those as they tend to be thin end of the eq risk wedge regardless of what transports are doing.....HSI holding up.....some positive backgrounds.....as long as the XJO cash stays above (doesnt daily close below) 4330 then the upper 4400 remains best next target......

wot we need is a bit of :22_yikes:


----------



## Joules MM1 (13 September 2012)

someone who believes the major indecies move in repetitive waves sent me this video....the concept is complete bubcus imo, ah, but a great video......if your partner is having a 'moment' get them to watch this......


----------



## skc (13 September 2012)

Did FMG just fall 10% in 5 minutes?!


----------



## Joules MM1 (13 September 2012)

skc said:


> Did FMG just fall 10% in 5 minutes?!




4pm

3.500 	2.500 	3.430 	2.950 	43,674,988 	9,533 	139,967,639 	3.390 	3.470

    Indicative Price ($): 3.000
    |
    Surplus Volume: -531,788

thin demand on high turnover......someone wants out .....for several days....


----------



## Ves (13 September 2012)

skc said:


> Did FMG just fall 10% in 5 minutes?!



Wonder if there will be a double bottom this time... or another leg down.   I don't care about the stock or anything much in its sector,  but I find price action in some of the big-cap miners like this interesting from a spectator's point of view...


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> .if your partner is having a 'moment' get them to watch this......




That rocks. I could look at that all day. 

Some would say doing that is more productive that what I do look at.


----------



## Julia (13 September 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> That rocks. I could look at that all day.



You could sell it as a meditation aid to millions of gullible people.  More mesmerising than closing your eyes and chanting UMMMMMM.


----------



## burglar (14 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> ... ......if your partner is having a 'moment' get them to watch this......  ...




Wow!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 September 2012)

Today's max will be 4415.  Finishing the day at 4400.

And now here's Jim with the weather...  Jim, how did we fare today?


----------



## Joules MM1 (14 September 2012)

> fa·ce·tious/fəˈsēSHəs/
> Adjective:
> Treating serious issues with deliberately inappropriate humor; flippant.




just wondering if anyone knows if  Alan(i-present-the-way-it-is-on-the-ABC)Kohler has rebought his portfolio?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 September 2012)

I reckon we're poised to hit major, major resistance (blue dotted line at approx 4455) and test that next week.


----------



## Joules MM1 (15 September 2012)

futures pushed the XJO cfd to 4429's (although the killer spread of 4 didnt allow the sell at that price) a good chance to  close up for the week   .......the futures for SPX were bought at the close of the week (post cash) which suggests to me shorts were an on-the-day and did not want to be surprised on monday, a sign of pos strength......looking into this week more buoyancy for aus market but not much upside.....hohum


----------



## Joules MM1 (17 September 2012)

11:30am 	AUD 	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


	12:30pm 	AUD 	RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

tomorrow


----------



## notting (17 September 2012)

Apparantly we are here.




Not that I feel inclined to stand in front of this particular train.


----------



## Joules MM1 (17 September 2012)

notting said:


> Apparantly we are here.
> 
> View attachment 49001
> 
> ...




which market are you referring to and how/what is the data input ......is it possible that the yield spread between junk and 'investment' grade debt is likely to get a lot closer to zero before an extreme in equities occurs?......

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL


----------



## tinhat (18 September 2012)

I was going to post a question to the S&P 500 discussion about how toppy the S&P 500 is looking. Actually, I'll do that now. Next question after that is how much longer is the Shanghai composite going to be in a bear market and how much lower is it going to go?

S&P 500



Shanghai Composite


----------



## Joules MM1 (18 September 2012)

tinhat said:


> I was going to post a question to the S&P 500 discussion about how toppy the S&P 500 is looking. Actually, I'll do that now. Next question after that is how much longer is the Shanghai composite going to be in a bear market and how much lower is it going to go?




is this having a baring on your decision to sell in this zone of the aus indecies, tinhat?


----------



## Joules MM1 (18 September 2012)

tinhat said:


> I was going to post a question to the S&P 500 discussion about how toppy the S&P 500 is looking. Actually, I'll do that now. Next question after that is how much longer is the Shanghai composite going to be in a bear market and how much lower is it going to go?
> 
> S&P 500




worth a quick view

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2012-09-10-markets.php


----------



## tinhat (18 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> is this having a baring on your decision to sell in this zone of the aus indecies, tinhat?




Joules, I'm just a mug. Mainly managing an income portfolio for the family SMSF scraping up dividends and franking credits. With regard to active investing I've been very quick to take profits early (too early) and cut losses lately. Got stung in the 2011 downturn. My guess is that we are going to rally into January. Its possible that minerals have seen the bottom for the time being. It all depends on China really. Are they going to come out of their funk quickly? The VIX is low but hasn't flattened out for any period yet. 

I'd be surprised if we didn't take out 4500 on the XAO on this current rally. I think a further 50 basis points of cuts to the official cash rate might get us up higher.


----------



## Joules MM1 (18 September 2012)

*RBA ready to cut rates - but not yet*

Date
    September 18, 2012 - 12:26PM 


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...but-not-yet-20120918-263q7.html#ixzz26ml81GMY


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 September 2012)

This is called a creep-me-up-athon. 

Creeping up on 4330, once again.   :walker:


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 September 2012)

tinhat said:


> How many times have we hit 4400 on the XAO since the september 2011 bottom eh? And every time I say to myself "sell everything" but never do.




th, did you get your fill of the Twiggs, today?

http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/09/18/australia-asx-200-rising/


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> This is called a creep-me-up-athon.
> 
> Creeping up on 4330, once again.   :walker:




Sorry, 4*4*30 was the high to beat on Aug 23.

Looking for 4457 tomorrow and this is huge resistance.  Watch closely!


----------



## kid hustlr (19 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> few days ago on here i said we'd re-attack the 4400 level.....even if its to simply distribute......*we are just about due some rotations in markets* .....interestingly, with things like copper making a sort-of tech break-out and what could be gold exhaustion in the next few days and bonds going into equities we could get drahged up higher still, but, i kinda like the shape the xjo has been making for us to go anther trip downsouth after a false break-out above here with assitance of the hsi.....on the euro news release the xjo was pathetic and today we look good pre-empting the bernank release which i think will be much ado about zip, little on qe......
> 
> the aussie market has the challenge of the dollar and if it gets stronger (i suspect so) is likely to keep a foot on the throat
> 
> not keen to get big on any opinion......




Joules, forgive me for back tracking and I'm really enjoying your analysis.

With respect to the bold, are you inferring to big fundies rotating out of some more defensive based stocks (REIT, banks, consumers) and into materials/energy?

XJO still looks like h/highs and h/lows to me on both the daily and 30 min charts but agree with all those who feel this current zone is important.


----------



## tinhat (19 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sorry, 4*4*30 was the high to beat on Aug 23.
> 
> Looking for 4457 tomorrow and this is huge resistance.  Watch closely!




XAO hit the upper Bollenger band today (XJO hit on Monday and today). The XAO usually either consolidates or corrects after hitting the upper Bollenger band (daily chart). On the weekly chart the XAO hasn't reached the upper Bollenger band yet. Over the past three years the XAO almost always retraces the following week/s after hitting the upper Bollenger band on the weekly chart. The last time the weekly XAO hit the upper band was 4/5/12.


----------



## skc (20 September 2012)

Share market is collapsing today!!!

(Or may be just SPI expiry)




(Or manipulation?)


----------



## nulla nulla (20 September 2012)

Must be the "3rd" Thursday, options expiry.


----------



## Klogg (20 September 2012)

skc said:


> Share market is collapsing today!!!
> 
> (Or may be just SPI expiry)
> 
> ...




This may be the newb in me coming out, but... SPI expiry?


----------



## CanOz (20 September 2012)

Klogg said:


> This may be the newb in me coming out, but... SPI expiry?




Share Price Index futures contract expires and rolls over to the new front month....December I think...been a while since I looked at the SPI.

CanOz


----------



## Klogg (20 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> Share Price Index futures contract expires and rolls over to the new front month....December I think...been a while since I looked at the SPI.
> 
> CanOz




Ahh yes. Between yourself and google, it makes sense to me now.

Thanks


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 September 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Joules, forgive me for back tracking and I'm really enjoying your analysis.
> 
> With respect to the bold, are you inferring to big fundies rotating out of some more defensive based stocks (REIT, banks, consumers) and into materials/energy?
> 
> XJO still looks like h/highs and h/lows to me on both the daily and 30 min charts but agree with all those who feel this current zone is important.






			
				 me said:
			
		

> we are just about due some rotations in markets .....interestingly, with things like copper making a sort-of tech break-out and what could be gold exhaustion in the next few days and bonds going into equities we could get drahged up higher still, but, i kinda like the shape the xjo has been making for us to go anther trip downsouth after a false break-out above here with assitance of the hsi.....on the euro news release the xjo was pathetic and today we look good pre-empting the bernank release which i think will be much ado about zip, little on qe......
> 
> the aussie market has the challenge of the dollar and if it gets stronger (i suspect so) is likely to keep a foot on the throat
> 
> not keen to get big on any opinion......




yes, i mispoke and am wrong.....when i said rotation, that's poor street talk for we should get a load of selling based on the level of where the index is, the zone it's in right now at 4400ish, as we've seen before (ah, but, on the right hand side of the chart we have......)......given the background evidence and your series of h/h's and h/l's we are likely to get a relatively shallow pullback rather than a revisit to the weekly lows.....if someone sneezes in honkers or germany we seem to catch 24 hour flu....it's like waiting for the water to break and baby to arrive.......the Operations of QE(ternal) or QEp(erpetual) or iQE(phone - the fed) was a real surprise in it's open ended stance and probably is more likely to fit the trend it's released in just as much as it is forcing the trend as so many talking heads are saying which suggests more of the same, if that's the case, locally, we'll stay floating with the tide, but as for investment grade, not so sure about that.....that's the crux ....i like the next 10 mins over the next 10 months...with all the new 52 weekly highs in the SPX like last thurs was 89/1 friday was 109/0 and even flat-yesterday was 32/2 ratio 52nwh's v nwl's and the background breadth (see HT's jpeg post in the SP500 thread) and the NYAD on new altime highs and the nasdaq at 11 years highs and the rut making new highs it's difficult to argue a substantive decline.....right  now.....even so, investment grade right now? maybe not.....tradeable grade, mos def


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 September 2012)

some burbble on the elephant in the boat

the xjo is likely to get a small swing down this week.....i am short on the cash close of friday on xjo....

any pull back appears to be shallow and i think the action on the spx (most indecies) is saying trading as normal with a tad more volatility rather than rapid trend in one  direction....even so, many pointers suggest more energy in the up direction

some US squibbs....
*Jill Malandrino:* all 10 sectors were on momentum last week, a rare thing
*Sentiment trader:* Active investment managers are showing more signs of group-think. The managers are carrying a median exposure to equities of 95% net long.... the highest in more than 18 months and close to the highest levels in six years
*Adv/Dec*: on the SPX yesterday saw 52 new weekly highs v 0 new weekly lows (Fed annoc day saw 109 NWH's and 0 NWL's) which is a very strong numbers  for what was pretty much a (in toto) doji day on the SPX/DJIND
*Bespoke Poll:* todays result shows 53% think index lower in month v 47% think higher (107 v 95)
*Commitment of Traders:* http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png shows a lot of small accounts got hit heavily as shown in the open interest, they were looking for sale of the century....a lift in the open interest reflects to me that large money got even more positive bias going into the Fed annoc opened more longs and closed more shorts, conversely small money withdrew open longs and added to open shorts against the (Fed) reaction......for several years this has been a hallmark of weak v strong money, or, price direction ......
*Bespoke:*  Dow Jones Industrial Average has now gone 61 trading days without a one-day decline of more than 1%.  Over this time period, the Dow has risen 8%.

clearly, we are due a few swings south, small ones, cataclysms will have to wait this week on the XJO and we need to break above the 4440 zone, maybe a single positive-close day where the internals show no large distribution and more belief is added to the buy-side, maybe not an a-ha moment, which would be good  to have a slow slog uphill.....conversely; also means more of the same government and more of the same from the RBA, no intervention into the AUD makes investment from o/s very difficult to attract.....

on the volume thing: there was heavy volume in the US, mostly due to Kraft and the triple witching did tend to fuzz the trade picture as mostly once the cash open was kicked in there clearly was an intent to sell most of the day, another reason to hold the XJO short overnight

i never dismiss correlation (yes it's not causation) ......it's timing!.....i have a short on gold after both gold and silver were heavily sold into on a third higher highs thru wedge tops on an hourly basis....even tho swaps dealers are heavy short compared to money managers it's not good to fight all that bullish bloating.....meaning small size with small targets before looking to re-enter longs

i like when markets signal at the same time a movement in liquidity that's rotating in  a ebb/flow thing, sell liquidity steps in while buy liquidity sits aside, quite different to cataclysm.....all markets must tread time is an old mantra and still sounds right to me....

so, the TRAN issue....hmmm.....smothering down weekly bar......hmmmmm......jury is still out for mine.....non-confirmations do not mean a to-the-minute sell signal as we saw in the jan to mar 2000 year non-com when the DJIND slumped against the SPX....that's three  months......the TRAN also made new altime highs not long ago yet no one went on pedestal rant about that event when equities were dragging behind......bias, nope, awareness, yep.....

expecting nice swings south this coming week

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/21/61-days-without-a-1-decline-whats-next.html
http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X3Q9MGJ0gI&feature=em-uploademail-new
http://poll.pollhost.com/YmVzcG9rZQkxMzQ4MjU4ODU1CUVFRUVFRQkwMDAwMDAJQXJpYW  wJQXNzb3J0ZWQ/

in the world of you-cant-make-money-looking-at-charts: i wont post any.......lulz


trading, i prefer next 10 min over the next 10 days

if you suffer bad trade habits and only you know you do, this is for you.....


----------



## Joules MM1 (24 September 2012)

voila, volatility!

from mister Twiggs http://goldstocksforex.com/2012/09/24/australia-asx-200-resistance/


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## kid hustlr (25 September 2012)

have hit the nail on the head this week at this stage Joules


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## Joules MM1 (26 September 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> have hit the nail on the head this week at this stage Joules




today looks like a buy day despite the hook down in US futures.....but it's all in  a larger cycle so some higher highs to come before a significant pull back.......same goes for HSI .......

i'm expecting to see signs of distribution now, lift in volatility in the US


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## notting (26 September 2012)

That rising trendline is being tested and is holding thus far.
Very important action at present.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 September 2012)

I concur with the bullish statements.

Test of 4443 soonish (1 week), then target May high 4513.


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## Joules MM1 (27 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> today looks like a buy day despite the hook down in US futures.....but it's all in  a larger cycle so some higher highs to come before a significant pull back.......same goes for HSI .......
> 
> i'm expecting to see signs of distribution now, lift in volatility in the US





crikey.....quick or the dead.....shorts on!


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## CanOz (27 September 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> crikey.....quick or the dead.....shorts on!




Yeah, interesting night...the Dax was the most unusual action I've seen for months....so thin yet getting sold at every opp.


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## Joules MM1 (27 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, interesting night...the Dax was the most unusual action I've seen for months....so thin yet getting sold at every opp.




yes, made for a reasonable heads up for the us open......i can't get that there is any buying going on......not buy yom kippur that's for sure.....


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 September 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, interesting night...the Dax was the most unusual action I've seen for months....so thin yet getting sold at every opp.




worth keeping close eye on what dax futes do when cash closes


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 September 2012)

xjo

spx closed on a fizzer, likely needs another leg down


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## kid hustlr (27 September 2012)

Bounced off of it pretty hard, will be interesting to see how the afternoon plays out.

Those tails are getting longer and longer!


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## Joules MM1 (27 September 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Bounced off of it pretty hard, will be interesting to see how the afternoon plays out.
> 
> Those tails are getting longer and longer!




mate.....get ya measuring tape out.....i find, mostly, when the index takes off while the other indecies are closed that's a good look for the next few days, especially if we get a close above yesterdays high......


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## nulla nulla (28 September 2012)

Interesting bounce these last two days. Managed to stay above the lower channel bar but the 4440 level is proving a challenge.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 October 2012)

See the blue dotted line.  That's from the peak of *2007*.  This is the reason for the cautious couple of weeks.  Needs a lot of confidence to break through.  It represents a return to a bull market, imo.  I'm thinking another +100 points easily from here.


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## Joules MM1 (2 October 2012)

tinhat said:


> I'd be surprised if we didn't take out 4500 on the XAO .......




gettin there.....



Market Pulse Archives

Oct. 2, 2012, 12:48 a.m. EDT
*Australia surprises with 0.25 point rate cut*

By V. Phani Kumar



> HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday surprised by lowering its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.25%, citing a weakening global economic outlook, uncertainty over Chinese growth and a "somewhat" softened domestic labor market. The rate cut, which takes effect Wednesday, is the RBA's third since April, with the total reduction in the benchmark cash rate target amounting to one percentage point since then. RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens said the central bank decided to make its monetary policy "a little more accommodative" as the growth outlook for next year was deemed to be a "little weaker" due to external factors. The Australian dollar AUDUSD -0.57% slumped after the decision, and was buying $1.0314, as compared with $1.0369 a minutes before the announcement. Stock benchmark S&P/ASX 200 AU:XJO +0.85% extended gains slightly, and was up 0.8% at 4,424.90.


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## Joules MM1 (3 October 2012)

the din of "sell the rallies" overnight hit what i think is a small peak, i am buying the dips and selling the highs-to-close as opposed to getting short way too early as that is the very thing that assists these (SPX) distribution periods where shorter are creating the uptrend......Bespoke.com noted that this mornings SPX close saw the first time in several consecutive closes where stocks bought exceeded sales offered......the daily close above 4440 on the XJO that i've been looking for appears on for today however the other big elephant in the boat that US futes pay close attention to is the DAX and that is very close to calling a sell signal in my opinion .....technically, on a 7 day 15 min  period there's a subtle inv h/s pattern on the DAX i've been running and a hold above 7270 with move above 7376 would be a very good sign of higher weekly highs.....

even tho Twiggs clearly shows money coming out of US indecies and the TRANS giving off smelly sell signals i think we have higher to go to complete cycles pre-election.....i think the EURO/USD and the TED are signalling higher prices too....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 October 2012)

Yesterday was very significant for the Aus market.  We broke out from a huge symmetrical triangle (the blue dotted line on the daily chart).  This is the weekly chart of same.


----------



## nulla nulla (3 October 2012)

This looks hopeful, finaly breaking above 4440.




Then again our major trading partner doesn't look too hot.




Fingers crossed we aren't rolling along on hollow euphoria.


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## Joules MM1 (4 October 2012)

a lower aud = a higher participation of o/seas equity buyers

-----------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, October 3, 2012
*Spike in Australian trade deficit points to AUD's vulnerability *

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/spike-in-australian-trade-deficit.html

excerpt



> > WSJ: - Data showing that Australia's trade deficit unexpectedly blew out in August sent the Australian dollar to a four-week low Wednesday, with further losses likely as traders ramp up bets on further interest rate cuts.
> >
> > A slump in prices paid for key commodities, such as iron ore and coal, meant Australia returned a A$2.03 billion deficit in August, its worst performance since March 2008 and much wider than the A$685 million that economists had expected.


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## Joules MM1 (5 October 2012)

nice relentless up-day....grind the shorts.....


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## kid hustlr (5 October 2012)

Agreed J it looks really strong.

Daily is still just a sequence of h/highs and h/lows. On the the 30 min the reversal bar from Sep 27 looks like a beacon and it has just run up from their.

Interested to get your thoughts on the week ahead when you get a chance. On a longer term basis that 4500 level has been a 'busy' zone and it wouldn't surprise me if we hung around here for a little bit or perhaps had a slight pull back.

Not sure what markets/indicators you keep an eye on in regards to helpful hints on how the XJO will play out but one interesting thing for me was the heavy action last Friday. 
	

		
			
		

		
	




Note the heavy volume on the major constituents and it rained true for all the major stocks in the index that day. Wouldn't surprise me if we did re-test that 4370-4390 level (on the XJO) at some point and then had the buyers come back in? 

Gotta dance until the music stops I guess so keep buying those dips??!!!


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 October 2012)

kid hustlr said:


> Gotta dance until the music stops I guess so keep buying those dips??!!!




enjoyed that post, mate.....i want to wait until non-farm is out of the way tonight to do a summary for next week.....traders almanac say dont sell any (spx) rally off the release and the xjo certainly looks like it'll churn higher, maybe a small node with some managers selling the nearest 4500 round number....the hsi lools like building a base is almost over and the dax is holding just above that 7265 although i'm raising the sell level to 7270 for a break of the h/s pattern otherwise expect the euro-zone leader to chop higher too.......sell treasuries seems to be en-song and prob resell dx whatever the peg is......gold/silver appear to be churning higher....appears to me liquidity is expanding into us elections....

have a great weekend


----------



## munster (5 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> enjoyed that post, mate.....i want to wait until non-farm is out of the way tonight to do a summary for next week.....traders almanac say dont sell any (spx) rally off the release and the xjo certainly looks like it'll churn higher, maybe a small node with some managers selling the nearest 4500 round number....the hsi lools like building a base is almost over and the dax is holding just above that 7265 although i'm raising the sell level to 7270 for a break of the h/s pattern otherwise expect the euro-zone leader to chop higher too.......sell treasuries seems to be en-song and prob resell dx whatever the peg is......gold/silver appear to be churning higher....appears to me liquidity is expanding into us elections....
> 
> have a great weekend




Great point of views guys, i wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of pull back next week. The quant guys at probabilitytrader have been bullish for a month now and forecast solid gains to year end, but there analysis does forecast a pullback is imminent. Even over at marketanthropolgy they are bullish but are predicting a a more savage pullback for the S&P, which could drag us lower than sentinent actually wants to go.

Any hits below 4300 looks to the excellent bullish indicators to ride out to year end...Just quitely I'm hoping for a bad read tonight in the payrolls to help drive a pullback to flush this rally out


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## notting (5 October 2012)

munster said:


> Just quitely I'm hoping for a bad read tonight in the payrolls to help drive a pullback to flush this rally out



Market may take that as positive because it would assist the Republican case.
Last nights bounce was probably allot to do with Romneys first debate performance.


----------



## munster (5 October 2012)

notting said:


> Market may take that as positive because it would assist the Republican case.
> Last nights bounce was probably allot to do with Romneys first debate performance.




That is very true, my thoughts are it seems that everyone is going into these numbers with to much euphoria and just quietly eroding away in the background for a few weeks now the macro numbers have been getting worse and the fundamentals of company's this quarter looks dminished at best. 

Could be the tipping point for a pullback because it seems the only thing driving this rally is soft tail wind.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 October 2012)

Stellar run up this week on the back of the RBA interest rate cut and the dip in the Aud$ versus the US$. The XAO manage to close above the most recent high of 2 May 2012 at 4513. 




I imagine there will likely be a period of consolidation but if the euphoria continues and refinancing of the Spannish armada doesn't sink the Eurozone, we could very well test 4600 in the not too distant future. 
After all..the dow is retesting the 14,000 highs of pre-gfc. China's economy could be a damper though?


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## Joules MM1 (10 October 2012)

http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html

Tuesday, October 9, 2012
*Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history *

def worth a read


----------



## tinhat (10 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html
> 
> Tuesday, October 9, 2012
> *Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history *
> ...




Melbourne Cup Day 2010 was the straw that broke the camel's back and the RBA was too stubborn to admit it's mistake until Melbourne Cup Day 2011. Let's see what is in store this Melbourne Cup Day.


----------



## kid hustlr (10 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html
> 
> Tuesday, October 9, 2012
> *Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history *
> ...




Good read

Markets have been pricing in some cuts for a while now though. I was always under the impression that the further out the yield curve you looked the less reliable it became. ie, the accuracy over the next 3 months is pretty good but the accuracy 3 years from now isn't great. I was told this was partly due to the longer time frame creating more uncertainty, but also because the 3 yr and up bonds are simply more volatile and act as a place for banks to 'park their money'. I never quite understood that last bit.

just follow Bill evans if you want to know where interest rates are going the guy doesn't seem to miss.


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## RazzaDazzla (10 October 2012)

Lower rates, more people and instos inclined to buy shares VS receiving nothing parking money in the bank. Much like what is happening in US markets, people are buying equities for the yields. 

So overall, continued bullish for XAO?


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## RazzaDazzla (11 October 2012)

Yesterday and so far today, it looks as though the dips are being bought.


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## grace (12 October 2012)

I wasn't really sure where to post this, but thought that a few members might look at this thread from time to time.

This is worth a listen - to the whole lot if you can spare the time.  Das starts after the introductions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP8AjMAdql4

*Satyajit Das - The end of ponzi prosperity *

Low or no growth for a long time and stagnation are his predictions.  There is also a prediction of 25% chance of total collapse or 75% stagnation.

"turning Japanese" - the lost decades is a theme.


----------



## basilio (12 October 2012)

grace said:


> I wasn't really sure where to post this, but thought that a few members might look at this thread from time to time.
> 
> This is worth a listen - to the whole lot if you can spare the time.  Das starts after the introductions.
> 
> ...




Satyajit Das has been expounding his views for years. I think logically he is quite right - we can't continue with exponential growth.

Unfortunately our economic system just can't accept that idea because it clashes with totally flawed continual growth movement. 

 ________________________________________________________________________

Welcome back to ASF Grace. Hope all is well.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2012)

I'm starting to look for the end to this run.  Can't find anything yet.  Anyone got any TA on the likely big top?  Other than say 5000 which is too far off.


----------



## tinhat (18 October 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm starting to look for the end to this run.  Can't find anything yet.  Anyone got any TA on the likely big top?  Other than say 5000 which is too far off.




Well assuming no unexpected events out of Europe or China or unpredictable natural events then, except for a pullback that pivots around about 4550-4600 area, I'm guessing its going to be a bull market until the fiscal cliff (or at least the US presidential election result).


----------



## havaiana (18 October 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> http://soberlook.com/2012/10/australian-overnight-rate-expected-to.html
> 
> Tuesday, October 9, 2012
> *Australian overnight rate expected to hit the lowest level in the RBA's history *
> ...




Interesting, the 87% chance of rate cut in the article applies fari value of about 1.15:1 odds. Can get odds of 1.50:1 right now. If the figure is correct that's a 30% return on investment, which is a huge return in terms of gambling


----------



## havaiana (18 October 2012)

havaiana said:


> Interesting, the 87% chance of rate cut in the article applies fari value of about 1.15:1 odds. Can get odds of 1.50:1 right now. If the figure is correct that's a 30% return on investment, which is a huge return in terms of gambling




bleh, just realised date of post/article, i'm sure the curve has changed by now


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2012)

tinhat said:


> Well assuming no unexpected events out of Europe or China or unpredictable natural events then, except for a pullback that pivots around about 4550-4600 area, I'm guessing its going to be a bull market until the fiscal cliff (or at least the US presidential election result).




Yeh it's looking that way.  I can't see or feel any overhead.


----------



## nulla nulla (18 October 2012)

Has Obama's success in the second debate had any input to todays run up of the ASX?


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## kid hustlr (19 October 2012)

Another strong week. Strong AUD or not it doesn't seem to matter right now.

I guess with interest rates at 3.25% (and likely coming down further) and the ASX200 yielding 4.73% + franking why wouldn't everyone want a piece. 

Thank big 4 banks are still yielding circa 6% + franking and have really enjoyed quite a boring, low volatility drive up since mid September. Surely this has to end soon and the last couple of days they have definitely taken a breather.

The big miners are actually trying to build a foundation as well and actual look kinda healthy for the first time in a long long time.

Market breadth also looks very good over the past few months.

One thing I do find interesting is the low volumes over the past few weeks. I'm not sure if there are seasonal reasons for this or whatever but turnover has been next to nothing. It's like everyone is waiting for something to happen and in the mean time everything keeps going up.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 October 2012)

So after almost 5 Years of sideways, down and clawing our way back, we have finally broken through the upper bar of the pennant. The next challenge is the high of 5070 of 11 April 2011.


----------



## Joules MM1 (21 October 2012)

be a few sore heads monday......tween traders ranting about 1987 week comparison, broken technicals and electioneering in the US and HSI final distribution churn (for which i was way too early selling on thurs!) fridays trade turned out to be a nice constant ride downhill and what was curious was the way the XJO futes ran ahead of the US cash market and alongside metals till just prior to the cash open ......i closed my screen early saturday morning and was satisfied that there was not bounce coming......cfd's continued to sell after the US cash closed

if there is a comparison to 87 it is only this one (imho): that the strength of holdings be inline with the thinking prior to a strong pullback and not reactive *to * the pullback......

the tech sector was already heavy on thurs and we should see an outside down week on the xjo/xao, so, technically, i think if we do not get that down bar on both indecies then look for a flood of buying to come in.....

my pos is to be short the US futures unless strong signals say otherwise.....this should be a short-lived affair.....

as Aus futes for xjo closed friday 4571's and likely to open between 4520's and 4530's, or if heavy selling hits from weak longs close to 4500 ........ideally, a long tail on a weekly bar for both indecies would trigger strong buying with ratios calling for 4450 XJO to hold and if we take that level out, with no reversal, then a strong portfolio thinning review is likely to kick in back to 4340 XJO .....I expect the HSI to print wide red numbers on monday too...... i think we're in a small Keating moment.... a larger pullback we have to have.....what is important is the strength of both indecies following the pullback and any divergences that occur at that time may be a good time to decide on stocks held especially given the extent of liquidity going into the Aus market .....

one comparison i do think is worth considering analogous to any period would be the 2004 churn in the SPX that saw several pundits call for a return of a bear trend and we all know what actually happened ....the XJO did not go thru the same churn (daily basis) relative to the SPX, in fact, the opposite, the XJO was extremely robust (not withstanding that the AUD allowed stocks to looks attractive to o/s buyers)...

i think a key level for the DAX is 7330 hourly which saw some buying (post cash and just prior to the US closing and did not sell-on with US futures) and 7220 daily basis.....

from a stock holders perspective, that weekly point of view maybe a better value than just the daily to come

ideas...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 October 2012)

Long term = Symmetrical triangle breakout, bullish (blue dotted line)
Medium term = Sitting above support, mildly bullish (thick black lines)
Short term = Bounced off support today (thin black line), bullish.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (23 October 2012)

I get the feeling the aussie battler is trying its darnedest for a long overdue catchup with the US markets.

US drops near 2%, we only dropped a little yesterday. US markets closed flat overnight, we're currently up 0.5%. I don't think anyone can deny the audacity of the aussie market lately.


----------



## Joules MM1 (24 October 2012)

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#closed




cpi q/q


----------



## stevier95 (24 October 2012)

*Where is the All Ords heading?*

Where does everything think the All Ords will go over the coming days/weeks?
Drop below 4500 or power on upwards?


----------



## burglar (24 October 2012)

*Re: Where is the All Ords heading?*



stevier95 said:


> Where does everything think the All Ords will go over the coming days/weeks?
> Drop below 4500 or power on upwards?




Today

ALL ORDINARIES (^AORD)-ASX 

4,530.60 -37.40 (-0.82%)


Yesterday (Overnight)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)-DJI 

13,102.53 -243.36 (-1.82%)

If we are "following a lead from Wall Street"
we are in **** street. IMO

I predict a test of resistance at 4,444


----------



## Joules MM1 (26 October 2012)

xjo printing weekly outside down bar despite very high money flows inwards and on the back of break fo crucial support levels on spx and frothy top on hsi

....weak bargains looking to get culled over next few sessions....good time for health check of non performers......


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2012)

There's 2 lines at *4484*, which should support.  Monday or Tues.


----------



## nulla nulla (26 October 2012)

The xao appears to have dropped from the upper channel bar to the lower channel bar in only 5 working days, what happened in Australia that warranted this? If the xao doesn't rebound from here the next support level looks like the previous resistance level of 4440 or worse the previous support level of 4403.


----------



## CanOz (26 October 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> The xao appears to have dropped from the upper channel bar to the lower channel bar in only 5 working days, what happened in Australia that warranted this?




Sellers being more aggressive than buyers! Love the volatility!

CanOz


----------



## notting (26 October 2012)

CanOz said:


> Sellers being more aggressive than buyers! Love the volatility!




Having done some navel gazing to figure out why that was, the head line that arose was  ld:-"new doubts about another interest rate cut due to higher than expected inflation has given some internationals reason to retreat a little from XAO!"


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 October 2012)

Experimenting with a new composite indicator (bottom pane).  Very basic.  Let's see how she goes.  Currently on 18 which is a very low value historically, meaning it's due for a run up.


----------



## starman45 (28 October 2012)

In the short term the sellers are more aggressive buyers and were able to move under the less support 4532ish.
However, sellers are against the immediate trend and the recovery of that support could resurrect the uptrend in the short term.


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> xjo printing weekly outside down bar despite very high money flows inwards and on the back of break fo crucial support levels on spx and frothy top on hsi
> 
> ....weak bargains looking to get culled over next few sessions....good time for health check of non performers......




quick follow-thru




The Chartist, a point of view:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=14048464&l=4375fb69da&id=79843145389


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## Gringotts Bank (1 November 2012)

I concur.  Expecting a 120 point drop from here to 4360, from the busted h&s top.


----------



## MrBurns (1 November 2012)

Sounds ominous 

Is there anywhere you can se the futures for tomorrows trading ?

I had a link to the US one somewhere but don't recall ever seeing one for the ASX.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (2 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Sounds ominous
> 
> Is there anywhere you can se the futures for tomorrows trading ?
> 
> I had a link to the US one somewhere but don't recall ever seeing one for the ASX.




From my 5 seconds of investigation, Commsec has live SPI prices on the banner that scrolls across the front of their homepage.

Otherwise SFE has 20 minute delayed SPI prices. There's plenty of other third party websites that give delayed SPI prices too.


----------



## MrBurns (2 November 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> From my 5 seconds of investigation, Commsec has live SPI prices on the banner that scrolls across the front of their homepage.
> 
> Otherwise SFE has 20 minute delayed SPI prices. There's plenty of other third party websites that give delayed SPI prices too.




Thanks i was thinking more of trades/orders placed after hours that give an indication of what the next day might be like........


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks i was thinking more of trades/orders placed after hours that give an indication of what the next day might be like........




Yeah, that's the SPI Burnsy...the contract closes sometime before the cash opens, giving you a heads up to where the cash will open...It just follows the S&Ps anyway.

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (2 November 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yeah, that's the SPI Burnsy...the contract closes sometime before the cash opens, giving you a heads up to where the cash will open...It just follows the S&Ps anyway.
> 
> CanOz




Ok thanks CanOz , that shows you how much I know........


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Ok thanks CanOz , that shows you how much I know........





  A lot of people don't realize that australia has a pretty good electronic after hours index future session...access to this data is to always on your basic bank broker sites...understandable.

CanOz


----------



## nulla nulla (3 November 2012)

This week the xao dropped a further 20 points. This compares favourably with the 100 point drop the previous week. The market reaction to the news out of China, that their domestic growth was regaining momentum, was almost over looked early in the week as our market continued to head down.

Fortunately the news seeped through and our resource sector started to regain some impetus on Thursday/Friday which helped offset the retraces of the financial & property sectors along with Woolworths and Telstra. NAB issued a shock report. Profit down on the exposure to the UK which is starting to look like a bottomless pit to everyone but the chairman of NAB. Telstra was up on the Defence contract then down on the SA acquisition.

The immediate future looks bleak. Europe keeps rearing its' head as a basket case (Spain & Greece in particular with their high unemployment and economic uncertainty). The U.S has been hit with a massive storm adding further disruption to their markets already effected by the U.S. presidential elections. I suspect we are going to have a correction until the U.S election outcome is resolved and some of the storm rebuilding stimulus takes effect. If we don't stailise and rebound from here our next support level appears to be arround 4380.


----------



## starman45 (4 November 2012)

This week, the sellers have tried to recover the support 4532, but were rejected down. Sellers still aggressive, but the trend up is not compromised.


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 November 2012)

sometimes in a short pos, the picture sez, this is fake......et volia...prior to local news we make a wrong-looking spike down and a buy buy buy bar  appears.....

hsi bully again

the xjo moves counter to gold and alongside hsi....again, the buy buy buy bar appears prior to hsi open....so far so good......

mebe it's a day of futures playing over genuine sellers.......certainly looks that way to me.....the end of day stats are likely to support that.....


----------



## Joules MM1 (6 November 2012)

Monday, November 5, 2012
*Some signs of weakness in Australia's labor markets *
http://soberlook.com/2012/11/some-signs-of-weakness-in-australias.html


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 November 2012)

dbl bottom day on XJO.....even tho it ended in the red, what was notable was the XSO was in the green for the bulk of the session and being it's the risky end of the wedge it tends to support the XJO's reach into support......the cfd i am holding overnight hit down to 4220 this morning on the drag n drop SPX selling (slightly oversold by the looks) i was hanging for it to hit 4210, oh well, got most of the move......gold is a nice green backdrop for XJO too

curious the VIX has been held within tight reign/range and can be easily read to mean one of two things, there isnt any real fear or that the real fear is still come for a capitulative low...so, not much help really.....lulz at reading all the opines on the subject tho :

the XJO cfd is being bought up after the 10 min auction has closed ....doesnt look like a sell set-up thus far

$$


----------



## notting (9 November 2012)

S&P500 finished on it's low just below 200 moving day average and Apple has moved into bear territory.
Not convinced of a major move down yet but, next few days should be telling in terms of providing a lead for XAO


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 November 2012)

notting said:


> S&P500 finished on it's low just below 200 moving day average and Apple has moved into bear territory.
> Not convinced of a major move down yet but, next few days should be telling in terms of providing a lead for XAO




i'd rather follow the DAX for a lead especially on the back of the recent sell down kicked off by them...often-times down to whom is following whom as an excuse for a swing.....the SPX has had a steller year compared to the XJO and the best we've done is a marginally positive year over year

3 years of XSO v SPX
depends on the time frame and the approach used, i guess


----------



## nulla nulla (9 November 2012)

While we are down for the third week running, the drop this week was almost non existant compared to the previous week and miniscule compared to the week before that. Never the less the upward euphoria appears to have hit a wall (a fiscal cliff edge do I hear?).




I can't see congress sending the economy into depression so I expect the debt ceiling will get lifted again (more of the same). Naturally there will be some argy bargy before the 11th hour decisions. I wouldn't be surprised to see our market drift down to the 4100-4200 area before settling into another sideways upwards trend back to the 4500-4600 levels.


----------



## notting (9 November 2012)

Yes, the German tern is possibly the major influence on the recent down glance rather than elections and fiscal boogy cliff for the undertaxed rich.
German weakness likely due to stronger Euro against the US$ after QE3.  
I had breakfast with an international fund board man this morning.  
Was telling me manufacturing in France is all but dead!
I'm wondering how unusual it is to have oil relativly weak against what was a topping out S&P, haven't been able to understand oil recently.  Maybe all the gas is having an effect?


----------



## skc (9 November 2012)

The banks going ex-div today accounted for 21 points on the XJO, so we actually finished the day flat (as indicated by the SPI). Germany economic news appears to be part of the headline, but I am suprised to see the pause of QE in UK receiving little attention.

The over market is going ok but really weak patches in miners, mining services and energy... 3 days ago I was sure that we are running up to a nice xmas rally.


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 November 2012)

skc said:


> 3 days ago I was sure that we are running up to a nice xmas rally.




and in 3 days time, mebe, things like look nice again.....plenty  in the time-tank till crissy


----------



## Joules MM1 (10 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> and in 3 days time, mebe, things like look nice again.....plenty  in the time-tank till crissy




erm, might need an extension on that idea, stopped out of longs.....german selling and no one wants to hold below longs; gargling barbed wire......futures in strong retreat


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 November 2012)

tinhat said:


> Well assuming no unexpected events out of Europe or China or unpredictable natural events then, except for a pullback that pivots around about 4550-4600 area, I'm guessing its going to be a bull market until the fiscal cliff (or at least the US presidential election result).




Ha!


----------



## notting (10 November 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> and in 3 days time, mebe, things like look nice again.....plenty  in the time-tank till crissy




I think odds are against the Christmas rally this time round.
We had no real Sept/Oct weakness, which usually creates plenty of space for Santa, in fact markets were unseasonably strong.
We have the focus on FC, which is going to dominate and will probably play out till January.
We also have the reinstated democrat king spouting reinvigerated socialist hakas,  and lots of dissalutioned republicans who have all the happy money not going anywhere.
There is also talk of loomng recessions in Euroland and even US.
Doesn't make for too much merry cheer.

However, underlying the current mood, we have QE3 and King Draghis' superpowers which should make markets consolidation rather strong.
The fact that oil has not risen with the markets bodes well for global stimulus so it's in pretty good shape really. Well, as far as a turd can have a nice shape I suppose.


----------



## Logique (11 November 2012)

I think it's going to roll over, following the DAX, and renewed sentiment about the US fiscal cliff.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 November 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I concur.  Expecting a 120 point drop from here to 4360, from the busted h&s top.




Another -60(?) from here and then a moderately strong reversion back to the mean.

A second possibility is a bounce tomorrow off the long term support at 4400.  Maybe this is more likely.  Looking oversold.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 November 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Another -60(?) from here and then a moderately strong reversion back to the mean.
> 
> A second possibility is a bounce tomorrow off the long term support at 4400.  Maybe this is more likely.  Looking oversold.




Looks like 4400 today.  Relief tomorrow then.  :iamwithst


----------



## Joules MM1 (15 November 2012)

Wednesday, November 14, 2012
*Australia's fundamentals continue to weaken; AUD should follow *

http://soberlook.com/2012/11/australias-fundamentals-continue-to.html




+ text




+ text




+ text




etc etc


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Another -60(?) from here and then a moderately strong reversion back to the mean.
> 
> A second possibility is a bounce tomorrow off the long term support at 4400.  Maybe this is more likely.  Looking oversold.




There was a pause at 4400, now 4360 should hold.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2012)

And if that doesn't hold.... there's always another line somewhere.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> And if that doesn't hold.... there's always another line somewhere.




Could I ask then if there is so many lines over a chart that one can pick and choose what is the point?

Or more to the point if they continually fail how can they be of any use?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Could I ask then if there is so many lines over a chart that one can pick and choose what is the point?
> 
> Or more to the point if they continually fail how can they be of any use?




A bit like big orders in the DOM.  Some get sold into, others hold.  All I'm doing is pointing out the most likely places for the XAO to pause or reverse.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 November 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A bit like big orders in the DOM.  Some get sold into, others hold.




Oh Ok so they are random.... cool!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 November 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh Ok so they are random.... cool!




Scoundrel.  :jerry


----------



## nulla nulla (20 November 2012)

A relative perspective from Mr Twiggs of Incredible Charts:

"The ASX 200 found short-term support at 4350. Expect a rally to test the declining trendline at 4450 but this does not indicate the end of the correction. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero reflects medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 4450 would signal another decline". 




Borrowed from the daily email from Mr Twiggs. Hopefully with the overnight rally on the International markets showing the way, our market can start the climb back above 4450.


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 November 2012)

https://twitter.com/joulesmm1/status/274077608537358336/photo/1






> It was a hot afternoon,
> Last day of Jooooon,
> And the sun was a demon,
> The clouds were afraid,
> ...



thanks, bobby


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 November 2012)

xjo cfd just cracked 4500 .....it's 11.13pm so it doesnt mean a lot.....yet......



> Joules MM1 ‏@joulesmm1
> 
> #XJO nice swing 11:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q actual 2.8% forecast 2.1% prev 3.4%


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 November 2012)

wot a nice slow burn-up day....even the small ords has joined the party.....

:aus:

(note to self, dont fiddle......)


----------



## tech/a (30 November 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Could I ask then if there is so many lines over a chart that one can pick and choose what is the point?
> 
> Or more to the point if they continually fail how can they be of any use?




Come up with as many ways to find a line or point and turn it into a course showing in hindsite where they hit perfectly.
1:10 or 20 will be ample.
Charge $15000 to learn and there you have it.

But wait.
Its already been done---damn---Gann.



> Oh Ok so they are random.... cool! .




Only if your trying to trade them.
Not if your teaching them.


----------



## brty (30 November 2012)

Just changing the conversation a touch, to something about what the XAO is doing, I sold some stock (BHP MND) today as it is looking tired, plus resistence 4530 etc etc. 11th day up without any multiple days down in there.
Time for a rest.


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 December 2012)

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://soberlook.com/2012/12/australias-economic-data-stays-weak-75.html

December 2, 2012
*Australia's economic data stays weak; 75% chance of rate cut *

excerpts








> AIG/PwC: - Manufacturing activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, with the seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI ®) recording a level of 43.6 (readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity with the distance from 50 indicative of the strength of the decrease). This was a drop of 1.6 points compared to the previous month.


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 December 2012)

i've opened to sell xjo at 4536's today even tho this'll make 11 straight trading sessions in a row where the index has failed to pass the previous sessions low....even better not falling after the open and breaking the opening cash low in most recent sessions.....

the Dow/SPX saw MOC of 3.2Billion to buy at the close on friday but is belied by the large percentage of puts that were bought on friday.....one twitter notes:



> Helene Meisler ‏@hmeisler
> 
> RE that high put/call ratio Friday, not typical but have seen before. i.e. 12/9/11 on a day $SPX up 20 handles was 120%. Next day SPX -18




looking for a small interruption downwards on the locals tomoz


----------



## white_goodman (3 December 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A bit like big orders in the DOM.  Some get sold into, others hold.  All I'm doing is pointing out the most likely places for the XAO to pause or reverse.





can i short that notion?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2012)

white_goodman said:


> can i short that notion?




Yes but you might end up losing money.


----------



## white_goodman (4 December 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes but you might end up losing money.




can i short that aswell?


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 December 2012)

travelling in tight range awaiting rba at 2.30....outside down day on spx.....moc for dow was 1.2billion to buy....


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 December 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> i've opened to sell xjo at 4536's
> 
> 
> 
> looking for a small interruption downwards on the locals tomoz




small was right! ....buy to exit at 4520...thought we'd go better than that....rba should have mister whippy play around at 2.30


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 December 2012)

down 1/4


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 December 2012)

Days between pivots are spacing out, with lower volatility.  That last pivot hasn't actually formed yet, but when it does, expect a prolonged 15+ days of slow decline.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (12 December 2012)

In overbought territory.  Double top potential.  If it goes further on this leg, I can't imagine it will go a lot further before a trend change.  

Smoothed RSI(4)


----------



## sammy84 (12 December 2012)

It's December....santas claus rally time. I'll ride this trend until the first sign of weakness then close my positions and enjoy xmas.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 December 2012)

There is a lot of money moving out of yield ("Safe") shares such as telstra and financials back into resources today. Looks like the market is shifting to an apetite for risk, which could be indicative that the all ords is expected to continue climbing...for now.


----------



## tinhat (12 December 2012)

I think there is some anticipation that the fed is going to announce QE4 (is that what we are up to now). Yay risk on! Psst... what to buy some iron ore? Copper is at a pivot point IMHO. Check out the pennant formation on either the weekly or monthly chart.

I don't think the medium-term uptrend is exhausted for all the defensive yield stocks either. CBA is still yielding 7.7% grossed up for franking credits.

Everyone is expecting a bad year for earnings outlooks globally next year. In terms of balancing probabilities, I think there is room to surprise to the upside.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 December 2012)

We broke through 4600 (interday) but failed to hold it. This achievement is supposed to represent the highest level of the xao for 16-17 months (?). The chart shows that every time we have hit the upper channel bar, since August 2011, we have experienced a correction and dropped 300 - 400 points. I can't see that much has improved in the world economy that would propel the xao up to 5000+ in the short term.




Personally I expect another correction loosely attributed to the failure of the U.S to address thier debt ceiling in a fiscaly responsible manner and some media blow up over the Spanish Economy. (Any excuse will do for the hedge funds to go short). Expect more sideways and down and trade the volitility. Good luck


----------



## willstor (14 December 2012)

Closed tse at 1.88 and fxj 0.51 today and yesterday...index failing to make higher highs...I'll wait for a correction before reinvesting


----------



## kid hustlr (19 December 2012)

Continued divergence on the ASX200 as less and less stocks participate in the rally. Chart above is the advance/decline updated.

Also note the XFJ failing to make higher highs. It's been the driver of this market so if that goes I guess we rollover?

Weird price action today looked as if a few blokes were happy to pull the pin on the rally and take the early Xmas break but then someone came in and said not yet! 

A strong finish today and we might get another small leg up.

Longer term still think there is some chaos to come


----------



## RazzaDazzla (19 December 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> From my 5 seconds of investigation, Commsec has live SPI prices on the banner that scrolls across the front of their homepage.
> 
> Otherwise SFE has 20 minute delayed SPI prices. There's plenty of other third party websites that give delayed SPI prices too.




Commsec must be tapping my interwebs! About a week after I posted this, Commsec removed the ticker off their front page that contained what I suspected to be a live SPI price.


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 December 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Commsec must be tapping my interwebs! About a week after I posted this, Commsec removed the ticker off their front page that contained what I suspected to be a live SPI price.




this ?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (20 December 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> this ?
> 
> View attachment 50027




That's the one, I haven't crossed referenced it with live data yet, but I had suspicions it was live SPI data.

To confirm, that table is only visible when logged into Commsec? They use to (2-3 weeks ago) have a ticker scroll across on their front page that amongst some world indices included the SPI.


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 December 2012)

RazzaDazzla said:


> That's the one, I haven't crossed referenced it with live data yet, but I had suspicions it was live SPI data.
> 
> To confirm, that table is only visible when logged into Commsec? They use to (2-3 weeks ago) have a ticker scroll across on their front page that amongst some world indices included the SPI.




there's usually a spi price on the logon page....my guess it's 1 min package and only if youre refreshing the page...that scrolling thing is too funny....

have a great holiday and safe driving, Razza


----------



## Joules MM1 (21 December 2012)

XUJ a 1.6% hit today..down 85ish.....anyone got a clue on that ?


----------



## skc (21 December 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> XUJ a 1.6% hit today..down 85ish.....anyone got a clue on that ?




Ex-div on APA and DUE.

Same with the REITs.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 December 2012)

skc said:


> Ex-div on APA and DUE.
> 
> Same with the REITs.




agree, REITS exdiv, Gold down, Pre Christmas.= ASX down

gg


----------



## Joules MM1 (21 December 2012)

skc said:


> Ex-div on APA and DUE.
> 
> Same with the REITs.




thanks, skc

xjo about to print a daily outside down bar.....we dont see a lot of these, topical news aside...

santa mistaken the chimney for a dunny


----------



## burglar (21 December 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> thanks, skc
> 
> xjo about to print a daily outside down bar.....we dont see a lot of these, topical news aside...
> 
> santa mistaken the chimney for a dunny




"I said the Schmitt house"


----------



## notting (7 January 2013)

Better go lie down
I think I feel a turn coming on.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 January 2013)

Upturn or downturn?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (8 January 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Upturn or downturn?




I'm speculating he was referring to a downturn.


----------



## tinhat (9 January 2013)

After seven weeks of higher closes for the XAO you would expect some sort of pull-back. Note that the week ending 28 December 2012 was the first time the XAO had not closed down for the week after having crossed above the upper bollinger band during the previous week. The previous occasion was 18 February 2011 right before the Japanese tsunami.

The XAO has moved above the upper bollinger band on the weekly chart during the course of trading during the last four weeks of trading. The last time that happened was the week ending 25 February 2011 which saw the beginning of the Japanese tsunami mini-crash. The previous occasion was the week ending 28 October 2009.

The Shanghai composite is showing signs of taking off on a good bull run at least in the medium term which might lose some momentum over the Chinese new year and then resume.

Me bull at least for the first quarter of this calendar year.


----------



## willstor (10 January 2013)

I would say analysts interpretations of results as they are announced will dictate direction from here.


----------



## CanOz (10 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> The Shanghai composite is showing signs of taking off on a good bull run at least in the medium term which might lose some momentum over the Chinese new year and then resume.




Actually it's in bull market terroritory now....as defined by a 20% increase....

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 January 2013)

willstor said:


> I would say analysts interpretations of results as they are announced will dictate direction from here.




Surely you are joking?


----------



## Logique (14 January 2013)

When I look at the daily XAO chart, I think gee this could run in 2013, but looking at the weekly, I'm not convinced. 

I found this article on the net, it's a good US context read for techies, one thing that did stand out is the historically high P/E of the US market (>22), but reversion to long term mean P/E could indicate a quite a large market fall in 2013.

*The inevitable stock market crash of 2013*
http://www.triwealth.com/the-inevitable-stock-market-crash-of-2013/


----------



## kid hustlr (15 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Surely you are joking?




lol'd

Anyone make anything out of the early intraday highs? 6 of the last 8 sessions we post a high in the morning then fade away for the rest of the day. Eyeballing the last 3 months it looks to happen pretty frequently on the SPI (even in an upward trend) but the occurrences have been even more severe the last couple of weeks.

Big boy distribution?


----------



## notting (15 January 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Big boy distribution?



Yep


----------



## kid hustlr (17 January 2013)

She liked those consumer expectations + job numbers


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 January 2013)

I sold everything today.  Top of channel.  I don't think the pullback will be strong, but that's what I'm waiting for.


----------



## MrBurns (17 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I sold everything today.  Top of channel.  I don't think the pullback will be strong, but that's what I'm waiting for.




Brave move


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 January 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Brave move




I think I'm a bit out, but hopefully not too far.


----------



## stevier95 (18 January 2013)

What are everyone's thoughts about the future movement of the XAO over say the next few weeks.
Sentiment seems to be picking up a bit.
ASX200 added 1.3% this week, the biggest weekly gain in around 7 weeks.


----------



## burglar (18 January 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> ... we post a high in the morning then fade away for the rest of the day. ...




I noticed this several times recently while watching both NAB and the XAO
Then it occurred to me that NAB might be a pretty big component of the XAO


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 January 2013)

If *4823 *doesn't mark the top today, I'll eat my hat.


----------



## skc (21 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> If *4823 *doesn't mark the top today, I'll eat my hat.




XAO's high today is 4803 so...

Enjoy that hat


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> If *4823 *doesn't mark the top today, I'll eat my hat.




Based on what? Outside the fins it looks neutral. My super duper "never fail RSI"  is saying that actually most stocks are in a basing pattern and could pop higher the next 5-10 days.

What sort of top are you talking?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 January 2013)

Here's my chart.  I need a new hat anyway.  Thinking back to 4720, something along those lines.


----------



## skc (21 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Here's my chart.  I need a new hat anyway.  Thinking back to 4720, something along those lines.




What are you useing for your XAO chart? The numbers look different to those on Iress


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 January 2013)

skc said:


> What are you useing for your XAO chart? The numbers look different to those on Iress




My cursor was sitting on that number (4844) when the screen shot was taken!  I have 4799 at the moment.


----------



## kid hustlr (21 January 2013)

I'm still leaning towards further movement to the longside. My limited experience tells me sell offs generally happen quickly and given the steady churn we've had over the last several weeks i think we go up from here.

Also is that 2 inside days in a row?


----------



## willstor (21 January 2013)

I'm looking across the asx 200 and see absolutely nothing of value...my recent deals in PRG at 1.91 and NCM 22.20 look good but no other opportunities. Waiting for something that pays a decent div to take a dive.


----------



## tinhat (21 January 2013)

willstor said:


> I'm looking across the asx 200 and see absolutely nothing of value...my recent deals in PRG at 1.91 and NCM 22.20 look good but no other opportunities. Waiting for something that pays a decent div to take a dive.




Come on - plenty of stuff. I'll sing you a song. I really mean it gang. I'm singing right now - won't you sing along? Got my accordion and my dog. You got to dig a bit deeper - lots of stuff I could sell ya.


----------



## Julia (22 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> Come on - plenty of stuff. I'll sing you a song. I really mean it gang. I'm singing right now - won't you sing along? Got my accordion and my dog. You got to dig a bit deeper - lots of stuff I could sell ya.



If you care to share, I for one would be interested.


----------



## burglar (22 January 2013)

willstor said:


> I'm looking across the asx 200 and see absolutely nothing of value...my recent deals in PRG at 1.91 and NCM 22.20 look good but no other opportunities. Waiting for something that pays a decent div to take a dive.




The index has just dropped 30 points, does that constitute a dive?


----------



## willstor (22 January 2013)

burglar said:


> The index has just dropped 30 points, does that constitute a dive?




No however I'll buy back the tse shares I sold at 1.91ish for 1.8ish!


----------



## white_goodman (22 January 2013)

willstor said:


> No however I'll buy back the tse shares I sold at 1.91ish for 1.8ish!




what a genius


----------



## willstor (22 January 2013)

Ouch


----------



## MrBurns (22 January 2013)

I'm about to dribble some more into the market............so let's see ...where's the dart board


----------



## notting (22 January 2013)

Obama's acceptance speach seemed to contain a little bit of a, 'I'm coming for you' toward the corporate worlds tax advantage over the middle class.
Wall Street may throw a little tanty over that.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2013)

Julia said:


> If you care to share, I for one would be interested.




Gee, I shouldn't be posting on internet forums after drinking red wine...

Well, it depends on what rate of return you require.

Off the top of my head I would say that as of close yesterday TLS, NAB and WBC are all still buys if you are looking for dividend yield of 6% or above (grossed up to around 9% with franking credits). I would be looking for a pullback given the run the market has had these past two weeks.

Here is a list of potential dividend stocks worth investigating generated from Lincoln Stock Doctor. One of these stocks are on my watch list. I own WBC. The columns are "code", "financial health", "EPS growth 1year %pa", Forecast EPS growth 1yr %pa", "Forecaset EPS growth second year %pa", "dividend yield %pa", "forecast dividend yield 1 year %pa".

```
CCode   Health   EPSG (1yr)  F EPS Gth 1yF EPS Gth 2y Yield      F Yield
AAD  Strong            2.24%       2.42%       2.33%   7.85%           8.05%
ALZ  Strong            5.36%       3.54%       4.86%   6.34%           6.19%
BWP  Strong            9.21%       3.55%       6.34%   6.05%           6.28%
BYL  Satisfacto     9433.33%      13.05%     938.16%   7.14%           7.79%
CAB  Strong           16.68%       7.18%      11.83%   7.66%           8.10%
CFX  Strong            3.15%       3.82%       3.48%   6.57%           7.02%
CMW  Strong           16.72%       8.54%      12.56%   8.33%           8.33%
CQR  Strong            3.04%       3.82%       3.43%   7.07%           7.32%
ENV  Satisfacto       53.48%      25.77%      38.94%   6.24%           6.45%
LCM  Strong          109.33%       3.18%      46.97%   6.83%           7.23%
NBL  Strong         1061.11%       6.46%     251.58%   6.90%           6.90%
RCG  Strong            3.56%       5.82%       4.68%   6.52%           6.52%
SKI  Strong           39.50%      40.45%      40.73%   5.95%           6.23%
WBC  Strong            4.47%       1.88%       3.17%   6.27%           6.57%
WLL  Strong            4.80%       0.57%       2.66%   5.98%           6.31%
```


----------



## Julia (23 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> Gee, I shouldn't be posting on internet forums after drinking red wine...







> Off the top of my head I would say that as of close yesterday TLS, NAB and WBC are all still buys if you are looking for dividend yield of 6% or above (grossed up to around 9% with franking credits). I would be looking for a pullback given the run the market has had these past two weeks.



Interesting, in that these three, plus MND, maybe WES, CRZ, COH, SKI, are what I'm waiting a decent pull back in.  It's not happening.  

Do you know what caused that large gap down late December in AAD?
Etrade is telling me there is no such code as COR.

Thanks for the list, Tinhat.


----------



## MrBurns (23 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> Gee, I shouldn't be posting on internet forums after drinking red wine...
> 
> ]




Oh yes you should


----------



## howmanyru (23 January 2013)

Well, when is that damn mythical pullback going to happen? Like many I missed out on this latest run and am waiting for the correction, but when, damn it, when? DJIA at its all time high, surely it must be soon? Looks like a yeild chase ATM, with the big ASX top yeilding stocks going up like crazy. Where is that going to lead to though? How high can stocks go just chasing yields? So many questions, so few answers.


----------



## DocK (23 January 2013)

Julia said:


> Interesting, in that these three, plus MND, maybe WES, CRZ, COH, SKI, are what I'm waiting a decent pull back in.  It's not happening.
> 
> Do you know what caused that large gap down late December in AAD?
> *Etrade is telling me there is no such code as COR.*
> Thanks for the list, Tinhat.




I believe that's CQR - Charter Hall Retail Unit.


----------



## Struzball (23 January 2013)

howmanyru said:


> Well, when is that damn mythical pullback going to happen? Like many I missed out on this latest run and am waiting for the correction, but when, damn it, when? DJIA at its all time high, surely it must be soon? Looks like a yeild chase ATM, with the big ASX top yeilding stocks going up like crazy. Where is that going to lead to though? How high can stocks go just chasing yields? So many questions, so few answers.




Is it time for panic buying yet?  Or will that come at the top (8000??)


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Outside the fins it looks neutral. My super duper "never fail RSI"  is saying that actually most stocks are in a basing pattern and could pop higher the next 5-10 days.




As _always _my super duper indicator spoke true..... again!




And infact I still don't think we are in extreme "over bought" area..... whatever that is?!


----------



## CanOz (25 January 2013)

Everything is new highs its seems. The ES at 1500 will be interesting...tonight housing data should provide some interesting action.

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr (27 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> As _always _my super duper indicator spoke true..... again!
> 
> View attachment 50599
> 
> ...




Agree we are nowhere near overbought. 

Do you make anything of the divergence which has occurred over the last month? 






kid hustlr said:


> I'm still leaning towards further movement to the longside. My limited experience tells me sell offs generally happen quickly and given the steady churn we've had over the last several weeks i think we go up from here.
> 
> Also is that 2 inside days in a row?




Still leaning with the wind at this stage and I think we will continue to move up although I do note XMJ may have posted a lower low.


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Agree we are nowhere near overbought.
> 
> Do you make anything of the divergence which has occurred over the last month?
> 
> ...




The divergence is an *early* warning sign.
Back in 2008 there were similar warnings.
One very strong one was the topping of MANY stocks in the ASX 100

Here is just 6 all are showing price* very near the top* OR showing
price having its last shot at the top.




Logically this *should then be reflected* in the XJO
and it is.




Overbought on a longer time frame is later /April to July.


----------



## Sean K (27 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> The divergence is an *early* warning sign.
> Back in 2008 there were similar warnings.
> One very strong one was the topping of MANY stocks in the ASX 100
> 
> ...



So, the W4 marking is going to be disproved?


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2013)

kennas said:


> So, the W4 marking is going to be disproved?





It wont be an invalid count unless
(1) Is taken out. Thats wave 1
A new count would then be valid
It may look like this --also a valid count.




*A new higher wave 4 would be marked.*


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 January 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Agree we are nowhere near overbought.
> 
> Do you make anything of the divergence which has occurred over the last month?
> 
> View attachment 50621




No, thats not divergence the way I read it. I would want to see another 1 cycle _at least. _


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 January 2013)

Longer term lines disrespected.  Shorter term lines holding.  Top of channel.


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Longer term lines disrespected.  Shorter term lines holding.  Top of channel.






Gringotts Bank said:


> And if that doesn't hold.... there's always another line somewhere.




Time for some new tools?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Time for some new tools?




Plenty of tools here on ASF


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Plenty of tools here on ASF




Indeed, I guess the danger is in the easily influenced or lost start picking up those said tools. Hard too tell whats broken and inadequate when your struggling- i'm sure you'll agree. :


----------



## CanOz (27 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Time for some new tools?




LOL...

The ADX is used as a trend strength tool. 

That is one lip smacking sweet looking trend!

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Plenty of tools here on ASF




Typical---always blaming the tools!


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 January 2013)

CanOz said:


> That is one lip smacking sweet looking trend!




Indeed Can it is. But we are not in isolation, as you know. We have been in a general bullish market for some time. Even the fiscal cliff nonsense only rolled 3.5% off the market for a few days. We just wanna go up. It is one of those times when trying to be smart makes you look silly.

it hasn't bent so....


----------



## CanOz (27 January 2013)

> But we are not in isolation




Oh i know, its been an amazing run...there is simply no alternative but equities at the moment. The DAX bracketed and then broke nicely too.

That big spike intraday on the NK Friday was Yen induced...fresh lows



> TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Nikkei soars on new lows in Yen - Source TradeTheNews.com




CanOz

EDIT...love the COT panel!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 January 2013)

Nice squiggles guys.  :

www.downloadfreesquiggles.com


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Nice squiggles guys.  :
> 
> www.downloadfreesquiggles.com




I'll get to that after i finish looking at,

www.anotherbrokenrandomline.com


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'll get to that after i finish looking at,
> 
> www.anotherbrokenrandomline.com




Your squiggles make money?


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Your squiggles make money?




Nah mate I just do this for hobby. One day I hope to be a pro, I'll then be able to quit my job packing shelves at night in the Frankston Coles. 

you know what I mean yeah?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 January 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah mate I just do this for hobby. One day I hope to be a pro, I'll then be able to quit my job packing shelves at night in the Frankston Coles.
> 
> you know what I mean yeah?




You'll get there.  Just keep at it.  Yahoo Finance is a great resource.  

I'm going to bed now.  Nighty night.


----------



## Trembling Hand (28 January 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> You'll get there.  Just keep at it.




Yeah I know. Just gotta get that one line to work.... forget the 100 random ones that failed before it.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 January 2013)

Personaly I find it hard to believe that our market (XAO) can sustain the current rate of recovery for too much longer. I suspect that there will be one of two (2) outcomes:

1. A retrace from the 5000 level, followed by a sideways pattern ranging between 4500 and 5000 for several months; or

2. A sharp retrace from the 5000 level of 200 - 300 points followed by an even sharper rise (exhuberant spike) followed by an even more savage correction of 500+ points.

The global money printing exercise is doing little more than defer all the problems underpinning international economies. Until the U.S actualy does something to reduce their debt, we are just watching another bubble form. Naturally the volatility will provide plenty of opportunities to trade the various markets including the XAO.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 January 2013)

Ticky told me a heck of a lot of money flowed into European managed funds over the past month.  They're no longer worried about countries collapsing due to their debt.  Not that anything has changed with the PIIGS countries, just that sentiment has changed.    When one influential group of investors decides they want to be positive (like a change of scenery), others will follow them like sheep.  So I'm still waiting for the sentiment to swing back again.

Are we there yet?? I sold the rip now want some dip.


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2013)

Crunch time.


----------



## robz7777 (31 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> Crunch time.
> 
> View attachment 50699




Should the wave 5s end in the coming week or so what would this signal to you?


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2013)

robz7777 said:


> Should the wave 5s end in the coming week or so what would this signal to you?




*Short term weakness---*unless we see a blow off top (nothing like it so far) OR an impulse sell off
(Also nothing so far).
That being the case a corrective patter could emerge with a continuation of a larger wave 5 pattern
finally culminating in a final top--where we should see both a blow off and an impulse move down.


----------



## robz7777 (31 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> *Short term weakness---*unless we see a blow off top (nothing like it so far) OR an impulse sell off
> (Also nothing so far).
> That being the case a corrective pattern could emerge with a continuation of a larger wave 5 pattern
> finally culminating in a final top--where we should see both a blow off and an impulse move down.




Thanks. If we see the corrective pattern extend the wave 5 to breach the 2011 high would you see this as a significant top? Or would we need to have the impulse move down rather than a slight correction which would more likely signal that the market has further to run?


----------



## brty (31 January 2013)

When I look at that chart, I cannot help but think the dynamic upward movement of the last nearly 600 points, would fit the criteria of a 3rd wave movement moreso than a 5th wave.

I would also expect that there would be some type of reaction/sideways movement during February. Perhaps there will be a fourth wave starting sometime soon, followed by the 5th wave into March/April. This would then follow a fairly typical type of stockmarket yearly pattern.

If there was a larger correction/sideways movement from April onwards, I would expect a certain event in September to resume the rally towards the end of the year.

Prediction is so much fun, as long as we don't allow it to interfere with actual trading decisions based on existing criteria.


brty


----------



## howmanyru (31 January 2013)

Well, if the idea of the stock market is a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, then this time is approaching. Mum and dad investors will realise they missed the recent bull run and want to dive in. Then a lot of bad news will mysteriously appear in the media causing mum and dad to panic and sell at a loss. Then, as if by magic, everything is OK again, and there is another bull run. (cynical, i know).


----------



## kid hustlr (31 January 2013)

Who knows tech you might just get that exhaustion top.

I had to check if it was some kind of expiry day after looking at the price action this morning, I was praying for some tin foil hat theories. no such luck.


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 January 2013)

howmanyru said:


> Well, if the idea of the stock market is a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, then this time is approaching.




Who said that is how it works?

I think it has more to do with skill and work vs stupidity and laziness than strictly the size of your wealth.


----------



## skc (1 February 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I sold everything today.  Top of channel.  I don't think the pullback will be strong, but that's what I'm waiting for.




Are you still waiting for a pull back or have you jumped back in?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 February 2013)

skc said:


> Are you still waiting for a pull back or have you jumped back in?




I'm not using my momentum strategy, but I am using my mean reversion strategy, which is shorter term.  I should have kept the momentum one going in retrospect!

How about your good self?


----------



## CanOz (1 February 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm not using my momentum strategy, but I am using my mean reversion strategy, which is shorter term.  I should have kept the momentum one going in retrospect!




Are you using each system on its own regime...for example the mom system on a bull regime and the MR system on a bear regime?

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 February 2013)

CanOz said:


> Are you using each system on its own regime...for example the mom system on a bull regime and the MR system on a bear regime?
> 
> CanOz




The momentum one hadn't been making anything for a few weeks even in the strong trending market, so I didn't want to use it until it looked like being useful again. The MR was going ok so I started that again this week.  XAO just looked too far gone for me to try getting in on any trends.


----------



## CanOz (1 February 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The momentum one hadn't been making anything for a few weeks even in the strong trending market, so I didn't want to use it until it looked like being useful again. The MR was going ok so I started that again this week.  XAO just looked too far gone for me to try getting in on any trends.




You might want to consider adding something so that you can test your judgement calls. Perhaps an equity switch or something. Otherwise you'll get stuck not following the profitable system eventually. That's the thing with systems, you either follow them to the 'T' or don't use them. If you can't test it thn you can never know for sure if your theory, intuition or whatever works.

CanOz


----------



## RazzaDazzla (1 February 2013)

CanOz said:


> You might want to consider adding something so that you can test your judgement calls.




Like an index filter? When the index is above a certain line such as a MA, use your trend system.


----------



## CanOz (1 February 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Like an index filter? When the index is above a certain line such as a MA, use your trend system.




Yeah, exactly. Bull regime (closing above the 50MA) then a momentum system...bear regime (closing below the 50 MA) then Mean Reversion. My gut feel is that the MR system would be better short than long in a bear regime, but I'm probably wrong.

CanOz


----------



## Country Lad (1 February 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The momentum one hadn't been making anything for a few weeks even in the strong trending market, ..............




Suggest you have a good look at your system, if it is not showing the momentum present in the market, then your system is broken.  Mine have been showing strength since early December.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## skc (2 February 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm not using my momentum strategy, but I am using my mean reversion strategy, which is shorter term.  I should have kept the momentum one going in retrospect!
> 
> How about your good self?




Going ok. The short term stuff was up 5.25% in Jan so barely beat the market.

Longer term holds up ~10.3% in Jan so slightly more respectable.

Both marked to market so includes open and closed positions.



Country Lad said:


> Suggest you have a good look at your system, if it is not showing the momentum present in the market, then your system is broken.  Mine have been showing strength since early December.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad






Any momentum system that predicts an end point is probably not doing itself a favour. Best just to let a trailing stop take you out. Letting open profit slip is inevitable, but it's better than cutting profit short. 

Different for mean-reverse system of course.


----------



## tech/a (4 February 2013)

* Strong Pivot point reversal.*




As a consequence (not because the XJO is a leading Indicator!!)
I have a long term SHORT FTSE Trade with a stop at 6346
Sold 3 at 6340.
Holding O/N.


----------



## CanOz (5 February 2013)

tech/a said:


> I have a long term SHORT FTSE Trade with a stop at *6346*
> Sold 3 at *6340*.
> Holding O/N.




You mean 6246 and 6240


----------



## CanOz (5 February 2013)

Tech, still can't figure out where you had your stop, unless you got stopped out?

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (5 February 2013)

No took the trade last night on open
Open profit is over 90 ticks.
Short 6340 3 contracts with the stop 
At 6346


----------



## CanOz (5 February 2013)

tech/a said:


> No took the trade last night on open
> Open profit is over 90 ticks.
> Short 6340 3 contracts with the stop
> At 6346





Ahh, your not talking about the futures contract (Z 03-13), you must be talking about the CFD? The futures contract opened at 6303 yesterday.

No wonder i couldn't find it on my chart.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (5 February 2013)

Treat it as a paper trade
FTSE 100.
I don't trade CFD'S 
I'd closed the z 
Was on I pad used the FTSE 100 

Should have been more thorough.
Well spotted though.


----------



## Joe Blow (6 February 2013)

For those posting up technical analysis of the XAO, please don't forget we have a thread solely for that purpose: XAO Technical Analysis.

This thread was originally intended for general XAO discussion and commentary.


----------



## Logique (6 February 2013)

I happened to see ABC The Business last night, there was no irrational exhuberance there when they asked an industry panel where the All Ords might finish the year. 

Most of them said less than where it is today. 4700 - 4800 seemed to be the general consensus, although one said as low as 4250.  Just one said higher than today, 5300.


----------



## tech/a (6 February 2013)

Logique said:


> I happened to see ABC The Business last night, there was no irrational exhuberance there when they asked an industry panel where the All Ords might finish the year.
> 
> Most of them said less than where it is today. 4700 - 4800 seemed to be the general consensus, although one said as low as 4250.  Just one said higher than today, 5300.




So we take out the two outliers
The high and the low and its Official.

Where it is now.
No wonder they are experts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 February 2013)

This is the *DOW*, however it does relate to the XAO.  What happens there still happens here to a large extent.  Taken form from http://www.e-wavecharts.com/

He calls it an ending diagonal.  I call it a bearish wedge.


----------



## Porper (6 February 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> This is the *DOW*, however it does relate to the XAO.  What happens there still happens here to a large extent.  Taken form from http://www.e-wavecharts.com/
> 
> He calls it an ending diagonal.  I call it a bearish wedge.




It is indeed an ending diagonal...but 2 points to consider.

1) Everybody and their dog in the U.S is aware of it due to the press which makes me suspicious that it is relevant. Remember usually the herd are wrong and the market will do exactly the opposite of what is generally expected.

2) A rising wedge or ending diagonal has to fit within the larger count. In other words it is an unreliable pattern (in my experience) unless it fits within the larger patterns.

 Anyway it's now make or break time so the answer will be known very shortly.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 February 2013)

Porper said:


> ...unless it fits within the larger patterns.




Does it?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 February 2013)

5000 looming.  It's like a creep-me-upathon.


----------



## tinhat (11 February 2013)

Five points to go.


----------



## tinhat (13 February 2013)

You would think that after the response to the CBA's results today that the run up in financials has to have peaked. A lot of stocks are going to start to go ex-dividend starting with TLS next Monday. I'm thinking that from here to keep the XAO heading higher materials are going to have to kick-in.


----------



## PinguPingu (13 February 2013)

Wonder if we'll get another classic afternoon fade...


----------



## willstor (14 February 2013)

white_goodman said:


> what a genius




And out of TSE at 2 bucks...genius.


----------



## white_goodman (14 February 2013)

willstor said:


> And out of TSE at 2 bucks...genius.




guru status


----------



## notting (14 February 2013)

It's starting to look like a short squeez on stilts.


----------



## willstor (14 February 2013)

white_goodman said:


> guru status




Haven't seen any of your picks on here. Clearly you're a genius however.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 February 2013)

Henri Le Conte would have something to say about today's close of 5057.  Something along the lines of "UNBELEIVABLE".


----------



## PinguPingu (14 February 2013)

Reminds me a bit of the dude from X-men, the guy with the helmet. Short squeeze and the 'oh god I thought it was going to correct, I've missed the boat and I better get in quick' crowd. Mind you, US markets are at very strong historical resistance.


----------



## white_goodman (14 February 2013)

willstor said:


> Haven't seen any of your picks on here. Clearly you're a genius however.




If i put every single winning trade in would that help the discussion, its not very illuminating... unless you are trying to gain some guru internet hero status

if your a big swinging D come join us here (http://rapacapintro.com/account/leaderboard) and post some scores up..


----------



## tinhat (18 February 2013)

Keep calm - don't panic. Just a reminder that both CBA and TLS go ex-dividend today. I'm waiting for at least one "OMG - what's happening?" post in the TLS thread.


----------



## MrBurns (18 February 2013)

tinhat said:


> Keep calm - don't panic. Just a reminder that both CBA and TLS go ex-dividend today. I'm waiting for at least one "OMG - what's happening?" post in the TLS thread.




You talkin' to me ?


----------



## tinhat (18 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> You talkin' to me ?




Dang - I thought you were a certainty :


----------



## sammy84 (21 February 2013)

Tomorrow will say a lot about the strength of this rally.

I've had one stop trigger today but I'll wait until tomorrow to exit. Given the background strength of the XAO to date I'm anticipating a strong move back up either Friday or Monday.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 February 2013)

sammy84 said:


> Tomorrow will say a lot about the strength of this rally.
> 
> I've had one stop trigger today but I'll wait until tomorrow to exit. Given the background strength of the XAO to date I'm anticipating a strong move back up either Friday or Monday.




Fund managers won't pour in this sort of cash without following up with further buying, so I'd say a continuation is a certainty unless something very unusual happens.

Further drops ahead, but when will she bounce... ?  I'll say *4850.*


----------



## tech/a (21 February 2013)

This is an impulse move 
I expect a corrective move before returning to
Test the highs.
Short on the indexes ----- again.
FTSE and DAX.


----------



## kid hustlr (21 February 2013)

tech/a said:


> This is an impulse move
> I expect a corrective move before returning to
> Test the highs.
> Short on the indexes ----- again.
> FTSE and DAX.




Also leaning this way.

For those considering buying the dips:




(Yahoo data)


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2013)

Inside day likely as many buy "Percieved" bargains.

I doubth the high for this move is in but as we know if Q/E continues so will the bull run.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 February 2013)

Impulsive down yesterday, impulsive up this morning. Which ones the correction?


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Impulsive down yesterday, impulsive up this morning. Which ones the correction?




The high of yesterday wont be taken out.
While this bar remains in control---that is the high isnt taken out--
then it is an impulse move to the downside.

If the *LOW* of yesterdays bar is eventually taken out then yesterdays
bar will be confirmed.


----------



## sammy84 (22 February 2013)

Provided today's gains hold I think the rebound today says a lot about the strength of this rally. Yesterdays bar was the first sign of weakness in this move. Yesterday will do down as one of those annoying days which stopped people out of positions. Those who were stopped out are probably frustrated and re-entering today to avoid missing out. I would be more confident of a correction if we have a another down trending bar from here.

I would actually prefer a correction though. It's hard to find tradable patterns at presents.


----------



## notting (22 February 2013)

tech/a said:


> The high of yesterday wont be taken out.
> While this bar remains in control---that is the high isnt taken out--
> then it is an impulse move to the downside.
> 
> ...




Very helpful, thank you.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (22 February 2013)

I'm short the XJO via the SPI. I managed to get short near today's high.

I agree with Tech et al. I don't believe we've hit a major high, but I do believe this is the start of a little breather. Yesterday's big down day can't be ignored.


----------



## kid hustlr (22 February 2013)

anyone think option expiry played a part y/d? never know what to make of the calendar events


----------



## tinhat (22 February 2013)

I took a fair bit of profit off the table today. Will be interesting to see which way things go from here over the next few weeks. US politics might start making news over their fiscal "sequestration" carry-on. The Italian election is on the weekend. That could stir up the horse meat in the lasagne.


----------



## chops_a_must (27 February 2013)

Surprised to see the iron ore plays doing relatively ok.

They're going to be majorly disrupted from this cyclone.


----------



## notting (27 February 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Surprised to see the iron ore plays doing relatively ok.
> 
> They're going to be majorly disrupted from this cyclone.




Priced in?
Most have come off their highs pretty substantially.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 March 2013)

Looks like another counter trend day on a Friday.

A lot of people are bearish, but all I see is some great breakout patterns forming in a lot of stocks.

Sideways movement in the short term I think is bullish.

But as always, trade it as you see it at the time.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 March 2013)

Trendlines are being respected.  Touched support and bounced twice this week.

(btw, these are trendlines, not a trading system).


----------



## tinhat (23 March 2013)

Thanks for the chart Gringotts.

March 27 is the date that the latest USA federal government continuing appropriations resolution expires. If the market is inclined to pull-back further this could be the catalyst.

Basically, the US congress has not actually passed a budget in years. Instead they pass "continuing resolutions" that enable the government to continue to raise taxes and spend. The latest one expires on 27 March. It will have to be renewed so that the government can continue to tax and spend otherwise it will lead to a government shut down.

As the debt ceiling has currently been suspended by the "No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013" of February, the congress may insist on putting the debt ceiling back into play as part of a deal to continue appropriations. This is purely my conjecture.

Anyway, March pull-back, April-May rebound to new high? Would be nice!


----------



## CanOz (23 March 2013)

Ya gotta wonder how the whole Cyprus thing gets priced in too, gap up, shorts run for cover...blah blah...

Could have the makings of a nice fluff off top.

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr (23 March 2013)

We are pretty oversold right now. Expecting some kind of push up shortly.


----------



## tech/a (23 March 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> View attachment 51450
> 
> 
> We are pretty oversold right now. Expecting some kind of push up shortly.




Dow + 90.
So do ya think?

Your little chart has little relevance to oversold.


----------



## kid hustlr (23 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> Dow + 90.
> So do ya think?
> 
> Your little chart has little relevance to oversold.




Wrong side of the bed this morning?

Just posting the chart to support my view of what I think may happen in the coming weeks.

It's done ok in recent times.


----------



## CanOz (23 March 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Wrong side of the bed this morning?
> 
> Just posting the chart to support my view of what I think may happen in the coming weeks.
> 
> ...




Hey Kid, breadth indicators as you know are the true pulse of the market. Eventually they make the market turn, un-disputable.

I think what Tech was so "tactfully" referring to to was the 90 point day on the DJIA. So the SPI has no doubt already priced that in. We could still see even a gap up again though as the Cyprus announcement came after the market closed in the US...to me this is a big chance to gauge sentiment. Does the GAP up (if it GAPS) find initiative buyers or responsive sellers?

I can't speak for Tech, but i don't think he was trying to be insulting or denigrating your post. Perhaps because he is usually posting from a mobile device some of the delivery gets lost in the interest of efficiency. At least i hope that's what it is. This is after all, a community.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## chops_a_must (24 March 2013)

Well...

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/senate-passes-budget-89244.html?hp=t2_3

Will still fade the open Monday, but not confident. I reckon we'll get a running gap.


----------



## sinner (28 March 2013)

I must say, I am surprised by the extent to which smallcaps are not participating in this rally! You can see the ASX20 are doing best.




considering how tightly coupled US Small Caps have been...


----------



## skc (28 March 2013)

sinner said:


> I must say, I am surprised by the extent to which smallcaps are not participating in this rally! You can see the ASX20 are doing best.
> 
> View attachment 51518
> 
> ...




Is this because the ASX small caps are donminated by miners / mining services? My anecdotal observation is that small cap industrial shares doesn't seem to be doing that badly.


----------



## McLovin (28 March 2013)

skc said:


> Is this because the ASX small caps are donminated by miners / mining services? My anecdotal observation is that small cap industrial shares doesn't seem to be doing that badly.




Yeah that's what I thought too. The mining services companies have been well doing it very tough. Everyone's favourite fundy (Roger) was on Lateline Business last night talking about how he rarely knows things for certain but he is certain mining services is going to get worse.


----------



## sinner (28 March 2013)

skc said:


> Is this because the ASX small caps are donminated by miners / mining services? My anecdotal observation is that small cap industrial shares doesn't seem to be doing that badly.




Good hypothesis guys, I checked a few things to confirm:

* Canada smallcaps have suffered a similar underperformance
* According to Y! Finance, the holdings of ASX:ISO are 28% "Basic Materials" and 7.94% "Energy"
* According to Y! Finance, the holdings of NYSE:EWCS are 25% "Basic Materials" and 31.42% "Energy".
* According to Y! Finannce, the holdings of NYSE:IWM are 5.6% "Basic Materials and 5% "Energy".


----------



## skc (28 March 2013)

sinner said:


> Good hypothesis guys, I checked a few things to confirm:
> 
> * Canada smallcaps have suffered a similar underperformance
> * According to Y! Finance, the holdings of ASX:ISO are 28% "Basic Materials" and 7.94% "Energy"
> ...




A decent portion of the 18.8% in industrials would be capital goods (i.e. mining services) as well.


----------



## skyQuake (28 March 2013)

I too am slightly puzzled.

ASX Small Ords 188.31B mkt cap, 33.91b is resources Which is 18%.

Looking at the ishares ETF sinner provided: 

*%Weight Distr*

22.05 - Consumer Disc
20.46 - Materials
20.21 - Indust
15.35 - Fin
8.53  - Energy
3.69  - Tele
3.53 - Health
2.49 - IT
1.69 - Consumer staples
1.34 - Utilities
0.61 - Cash


Compare this to say the XJO and the difference becomes apparent:
44.23% Fin
18.43% Materials
8.86% Con Stap
6.85% Indu
etc etc

The resource holding is the same, main difference being the lack of financials in the XSO.

TL;DR:

*Banks!*


----------



## notting (28 March 2013)

It's fairly simple to me.

It all started as soon as there was a sure bet that the RBA was going to lower the benchmark rate.
People no longer wanted to be in cash so they looked for better dividends, but were not prepaired to take on risk.
They simply rolled the cash into the most secure highest paying, largest cap stocks.

There has been no risk on trade in Australia.
Actually the risk has been steadily coming off, whilst the above has been going on.

The possible positive is that this kind of action is supposed to be consistent with new enduring bull markets.
Once the larger dividend paying stocks are seen as overpriced and the rest feel they have missed the boat, the money will then start to look for a home in the middle and small cap stocks.
Probably after the first consolidation which seems to be trying to happen now.


----------



## tinhat (28 March 2013)

I agree with notting that "the great churn" has seen people taking money from cash because of falling interest rates and seeking "low risk" dividend yielding stocks. The flight for yield has also spilled over into some of the higher yielding small caps too. Possibly because there is money coming back into managed funds as well. Look at stocks like CYG (which I wouldn't buy), BYL just to name a couple. High yield but more risky small caps that have seen their prices rise nicely in this bull run. Then also look at the lower yielding growth blue chips they have all shot up too - DMP, CSL, CCL, SUL etc. The stocks dragging on the indexes are the materials and mining services as already mentioned.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> I agree with notting that "the great churn" has seen people taking money from cash because of falling interest rates and seeking "low risk" dividend yielding stocks. The flight for yield has also spilled over into some of the higher yielding small caps too. Possibly because there is money coming back into managed funds as well. Look at stocks like CYG (which I wouldn't buy), BYL just to name a couple. High yield but more risky small caps that have seen their prices rise nicely in this bull run. Then also look at the lower yielding growth blue chips they have all shot up too - DMP, CSL, CCL, SUL etc. The stocks dragging on the indexes are the materials and mining services as already mentioned.




Muppet psychology rules.

Anyone who isn't buying resources/oilers on this weakness has rocks in their heads.

In ten years time which will be in shorter supply, banks and dvd sellers, or resources and oil.

gg


----------



## Whiskers (29 March 2013)

Hold off a bit there gg...

It seems the mining boom is slowing down. Some give it maybe another year or so before it settles down, ie lower. The rationale is that China will slow growth and demand for iron ore and copper etc. Their economy is going through a transitional change from unsustainable growth based on exports to more emphasis on maintaining stability with it's banking and debt issues. 

Aus is expected to maintain a high dollar until the mining boom bites hard when we will transition back to more manufactoring based industry. 

Also watch for our inflation rate lowering and more RBA cuts.


----------



## Country Lad (29 March 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Anyone who isn't buying resources/oilers on this weakness has rocks in their heads.




hhmmm, that's me, I don't buy anything that is falling, only into strengths.  Even make good money buying into those making all time highs.



Garpal Gumnut said:


> In ten years time which will be in shorter supply, banks and dvd sellers, or resources and oil.




I'd rather concentrate on the here and now, not what somebody's crystal ball says may or may not happen in 10 years because the world will be a different place then.  There is a lot of market action to occur in the intervening time.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## tinhat (7 May 2013)

The market has been resisting going above the 5170 area. The market is pensive again today (especially bank stocks). A rate cut could be the catalyst to see the XAO go above 5200 which would provide a minimum target for a leg up of 5400 as my guess.


----------



## drsmith (7 May 2013)

We have the rate cut and it may not be the last,



> The Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook would afford scope to ease further, should that be necessary to support demand. At today's meeting the Board decided to use some of that scope. It judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate to encourage sustainable growth in the economy, consistent with achieving the inflation target.




http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2013/mr-13-10.html


----------



## CanOz (7 May 2013)

drsmith said:


> We have the rate cut and it may not be the last,
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2013/mr-13-10.html




This move was for the currency...gotta be...We're happy anyway, just exchanging some CNY-AUD.

CanOz


----------



## RazzaDazzla (7 May 2013)

Market got a quick shot in the rm from the rate cut, but futures decided to not get on with it. Will be interesting to see if the rate cut was the catalyst for another move higher - but it's a bit of a soggy start.


----------



## tinhat (11 May 2013)

Bad news people.

I've just stumbled upon this blog article:
Australia to enter a very sad period

It's not good. According to the author the 2007 top completed a one hundred year Elliot upwave and we are now only just starting to slide into a corrective pattern that will see the All Ords "mean revert" down to 2,200.




Personally I find it hard to see the Elliot wave in that chart.

Hold onto your hats and don't say I didn't warn you.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> Bad news people.
> 
> I've just stumbled upon this blog article:
> Australia to enter a very sad period
> ...




Thanks tinhat,

I do like EW.

Can you elaborate on your post?

On the one hand you say you see nothing in a chart you posted advocating a downward direction for the XAO, and on the other you advocate holding on to a tiny tin hat, and post an ominous warning.

gg


----------



## white_goodman (12 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> Bad news people.
> 
> I've just stumbled upon this blog article:
> Australia to enter a very sad period
> ...





well this is scientific...


----------



## CanOz (12 May 2013)

Well, there is only one thing to do this time then tinhat...


Get your shorts on!


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (12 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> Bad news people.
> 
> Personally I find it hard to see the Elliot wave in that chart.
> 
> Hold onto your hats and don't say I didn't warn you.




Elliot wave guru's 

Can someone please do a study to collect all there top calls from these nutz.


----------



## CanOz (12 May 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Elliot wave guru's
> 
> Can someone please do a study to collect all there top calls from these nutz.




The AUD could use a good crash.....


----------



## Boggo (12 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> Personally I find it hard to see the Elliot wave in that chart.




Agree, that is really trying to force a count which is the first no no.
Looks to me like someone has just read EW for Dummies and believes they have got it nutted out.
Where is the start of W.1, what looks like an attempt to plot W.3 is flawed both in the primary and in the W.3 of W.5.

That's the sort of stuff that adds additional confusion to an initially complex but a simple once understood concept that usually only works 50% of the time on 50% of any group (what more do you need).


----------



## white_goodman (12 May 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Elliot wave guru's
> 
> Can someone please do a study to collect all there top calls from these nutz.




cue Prechter youtube videos..


----------



## tinhat (15 May 2013)

Honestly, how did any of us ignoranti manage before live blogging and tweeting?



> Why is the market down after this morning's session?
> ‘‘I think it’s because [investors] are absorbing the budget and getting down to the fine detail of those policy statements and spending,’’ RBS Morgans Ipswich manager Tony Russell said
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...e-asx-slump-20130515-2jlg3.html#ixzz2TKFmZOxg




Thank goodness for online broking. I don't know that I would be able to cope with having to talk to a broker in order to place a trade.

Tony has obviously been on the phone this morning gauging the sentiment at the top end of Ipswich.

If you need to know what is really going down talk to Tony:
http://www.rbsmorgans.com/Branches/QLD/ipswich/About-Us/Our-Team/Advisers/Tony-Russell.aspx



> ‘‘There’s also ongoing concern with what’s happening in China at the moment and with the Australian dollar.’’
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...e-asx-slump-20130515-2jlg3.html#ixzz2TKJ6c88E




Oh yeah - something about the AUD maybe and China.


----------



## tinhat (15 May 2013)

> 1:22pm: This says it all really:
> 
> Brooke Corte @brookecorte
> Australian market having a shocker today. Having opened +0.5%, currently -0.9% as commodities tumble #ASX #ausbiz
> 1:17 PM - 15 May 2013




No it doesn't. Why? We need to know why? Poppy seed glut? Fears of an unexpected twist on tonight's 'House Rules'?

I just can't tear myself away from the markets live blog today in case I miss some really important news.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-miners-drive-asx-slump-20130515-2jlg3.html


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> No it doesn't. Why? We need to know why? Poppy seed glut? Fears of an unexpected twist on tonight's 'House Rules'?
> 
> I just can't tear myself away from the markets live blog today in case I miss some really important news.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-miners-drive-asx-slump-20130515-2jlg3.html




General pessimism, the budget shows we are in the toilet and it will take pain to get us out, so sad face rules.


----------



## tinhat (15 May 2013)

OIC. Somebody set us up the bomb.




That dastardly duo is at it again. Oh Wayne, have you been playing with the treasury forecasts again? :grenade:


----------



## RazzaDazzla (21 May 2013)

"They" have said that one of the reasons the XJO/XAO hasn't reached historical highs like US is because of the high AUS dollar. There has been a significant decline in the AUD, yet no significant rise in the XJO/XAO. Why?


----------



## Tyler Durden (22 May 2013)

> The number of Australians directly owning shares fell to the lowest level in more than a decade as the global finance crisis has sapped investor confidence and crimped returns.
> 
> The latest Australian Share Ownership Study, run by the Australian Securities Exchange, shows the number of investors directly owning shares has fallen to 34 per cent, down from 39 per cent in the last survey in 2010.
> 
> Total share ownership, which includes exposure to the sharemarket through unlisted managed funds, has fallen to 38 per cent, down from 43 per cent in 2010.




http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/share-ownership-lowest-since-2000-20130521-2jy4y.html

Yet despite all this, the market has managed to crawl back up to decent levels in the last 12 months. Perhaps this is due to foreign investors?


----------



## sammy84 (24 May 2013)

The month of May can kill the best of trends.

I'm going to start using the Aztec calender from now on- at least it has no May. We're currently in the month Etzalcualiztli. Looking forward to a stronger trend developing in Tecuilhuitontli.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 June 2013)

A lot of stocks off their highs.

Banks stabilized but no way they will push up from here for a while, TLS same.

Big miners and other industrials lackluster, uninteresting charts.  

Small miners, some opportunities off very low lows.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> A lot of stocks off their highs.
> 
> Banks stabilized but no way they will push up from here for a while, TLS same.
> 
> ...




There's certainly a lull and I cant see the bulls coming back in a hurry, the downside hasn't finished yet,


----------



## kid hustlr (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

Another rough night on sycom, things are starting to look messy now.

Great call tech, hope you traded it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



kid hustlr said:


> Another rough night on sycom, things are starting to look messy now.
> 
> Great call tech, hope you traded it.




Followed it here in Germany.

If yer not out you will feel pain.

Gloom n Doom for XAO.

gg


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

Hardly surprising the market continues to fall - 

Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson calls for calm over WA recession fears = panic

Asbestos TLS - no big deal maybe..........= mild panic

Union raises fears that Telstra communication pits contain deadly banned pesticide dieldrin  - starting to look iffy there 

Money pouring out of Australia - 

and to top it off  -

ABC refutes claims of axe for Bananas In Pyjamas 

It will turn when all this subsides.


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Hardly surprising the market continues to fall -
> 
> Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson calls for calm over WA recession fears = panic
> 
> ...





That's right Mr.B, you can find lots of news to blame it on...that's what the journo's are good at...never mind that people just want to take profits/no one wants to buy anymore, we needed a technical correction. Its too hard to explain and doesn't sell adverts...

FWIW, i don't think this is the big one yet, maybe just a correction. Seems too easy for the big one...

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



CanOz said:


> That's right Mr.B, you can find lots of news to blame it on...that's what the journo's are good at...never mind that people just want to take profits/no one wants to buy anymore, we needed a technical correction. Its too hard to explain and doesn't sell adverts...
> 
> FWIW, i don't think this is the big one yet, maybe just a correction. Seems too easy for the big one...
> 
> CanOz




Yes could be a sign of worse to come, the US looks particularly soft.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> Hardly surprising the market continues to fall -
> 
> Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson calls for calm over WA recession fears = panic
> 
> ...




MrBurns,

It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> MrBurns,
> 
> It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately




So you don't think the current downturn has anything to do with what happening in the world ?

I know the media , don't worry about that but true or not they effect the market.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> So you don't think the current downturn has anything to do with what happening in the world ?
> 
> I know the media , don't worry about that but true or not they effect the market.




Not the domestic media. they haven't a friggin clue.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

The mood of the market is negative. Mainstream media try to play it down but the exodus of off-shore investor money trying to get out before the drop in the Aud$ erodes any capital gains on our shares is in full flight.


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

Last week the market was falling because the US economy was improving and QE might be ending. This week the market is falling because the US economy isn't improving as quickly as it was last week. 

I think they just have a rotating bag of headlines to explain every outcome.


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



Trembling Hand said:


> Not the domestic media. they haven't a friggin clue.




You can feel the negativity in the air, a few weeks ago it was different, cant explain it, it started when the money started flowing out of Oz, then the Telstra thing, now WA almost in recession, no big deal but it's all negative and all adds up.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



MrBurns said:


> So you don't think the current downturn has anything to do with what happening in the world ?




I think it has nothing to do with what the mainstream media reports. Do you honestly think big hedge fund traders etc get their news from The Age, or is it only the piddly retail traders who are down the bottom of the investment chain that take any notice of it?

There has been negativity in the air for the last 4 - 5 years, everyone is still hanging out for the boom days that aren't coming back


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> I think it has nothing to do with what the mainstream media reports. Do you honestly think big hedge fund traders etc get their news from The Age,




No the Age gets their news from them and follows their lead on these matters, plus if there's bad economic news it feeds through.
The mainstream news is just one source of information.


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

If you want to see how the sentiment is then watch what the market does on big news days and the day after. In a bull market nothing can stop that train...even bad news gets run over. Then all of the sudden, like you said, things change and even the relatively good economic numbers are taken totally differently. Then that catches the media off guard and they start wrapping stories around it so they can explain it...they don't understand the market structure so they need to use something that they do understand, and the moms and pops understand. Then all of the sudden, the big move in the market was because of blah blah....

Its amazing to see, once you are able to see it. You see when you are looking at the market through the structure of the market, you are able to tell when a move is likely....and that's usually the result of news a while back already or news that not even released yet, in some cases.

Interesting subject though. Can't help but laugh the way the Muppets wrap the stores around the price actions.

If you want to see news affect prices then you need to watch intra-day prices, the US esp.

CanOz


----------



## Sean K (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



CanOz said:


> If you want to see how the sentiment is then watch what the market does on big news days and the day after. In a bull market nothing can stop that train...even bad news gets run over. Then all of the sudden, like you said, things change and even the relatively good economic numbers are taken totally differently. Then that catches the media off guard and they start wrapping stories around it so they can explain it...they don't understand the market structure so they need to use something that they do understand, and the moms and pops understand. Then all of the sudden, the big move in the market was because of blah blah....
> 
> Its amazing to see, once you are able to see it. You see when you are looking at the market through the structure of the market, you are able to tell when a move is likely....and that's usually the result of news a while back already or news that not even released yet, in some cases.
> 
> ...



Unless the news is two planes flying into the WTC. Would have liked the days before newspaper for that one.


----------



## Zedd (6 June 2013)

RE: Media and Markets

I got this in a newsletter just before the recent movements:



> Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to US Congress tonight has the clear potential to be a market moving event for the simple reason very people believe he will say anything different.
> 
> That in itself is potentially a bit of a problem because any confirmation of “no new stimulus” is going to help the US Dollar and hinder those denominated in USD.
> 
> ...




Thought it was interesting to see someone commenting on something so inane, and yet called the outcome perfectly. Also interesting to see the media seemingly ahead of the money for once.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> MrBurns,
> 
> It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately




I suspect you may have missed the cynicism in his post, where-in the ABC's axing of Banana's in Pajama's is a significant economic influence.


----------



## nulla nulla (6 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



kennas said:


> Unless the news is two planes flying into the WTC. Would have liked the days before newspaper for that one.




Or the day afters newspaper before close of trade the day before.


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2013)

Zedd said:


> RE: Media and Markets
> 
> I got this in a newsletter just before the recent movements:
> 
> ...




Yup, that's pretty much what happened. Thats news that can move markets...but...the structure of the market was likely ready for that as well, in other words no new longer time frame players had initiate anymore longs, many have increased their short positions, months ago.


----------



## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

Still declining, I'll let you know what's happening after it's over.............like most "experts"


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Still declining, I'll let you know what's happening after it's over.............like most "experts"




Nah will get a run up from 2 pm today into the close. That will keep the up trend in stocks like TLS, CBA etc for next week to push higher.....


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah will get a run up from 2 pm today into the close. That will keep the up trend in stocks like TLS, CBA etc for next week to push higher.....




huh?


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> huh?




Just offering an _opinion_ before the event. The markets V.short here. Friday arvo counter move is the normal play.


----------



## Paul Woodward (7 June 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



prawn_86 said:


> MrBurns,
> 
> It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately




By the time the news hits the main media it's too late. Those in the know have already taken their positions and the main media is playing into their hands what they want.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Just offering an _opinion_ before the event. The markets V.short here. Friday arvo counter move is the normal play.





ahh k, yeah agree too short etc...By uptrend you mean the previous uptrend in those stocks...?


----------



## skc (7 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Just offering an _opinion_ before the event. The markets V.short here. Friday arvo counter move is the normal play.




What about the fact that we have a long weekend coupled with non-farm payroll tonight + plenty of Chinese data on Sunday. 

Takes a brave soul to hold anything over the weekend.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

skc said:


> What about the fact that we have a long weekend coupled with non-farm payroll tonight + plenty of Chinese data on Sunday.
> 
> Takes a brave soul to hold anything over the weekend.





But you might want to cover your shorts....hence the rally?


----------



## skc (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> But you might want to cover your shorts....hence the rally?




I think if we are ralling for any reason it'd be because TH called it


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

skc said:


> I think if we are ralling for any reason it'd be because TH called it




lol...

But yeah, I'm just trying to get my head around that and how the Asian markets will react to all this, as you and TH pointed out this day is quite significant....you won't want to be short or long going into NFP...so a liquidation of inventory, short or long will happen near each market close, if it hasn't happened already on some (NK)...

The ES is at a critical inflection point (again), the conundrum with the dollar/commodities/bonds needs to be shaken out....

Just thinking about how this could play out either way...

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

Dunno about all that but my shorts are on fire and I'm hoping for a soup handle to form over my candle so I can join the line for the non farm payroll.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Dunno about all that but my shorts are on fire and I'm hoping for a soup handle to form over my candle so I can join the line for the non farm payroll.




lol @ Burnsy...

You think its hard to understand? You should try to articulate what i see going on with Gold/Crude/Dollar/Bonds right now!

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> lol @ Burnsy...
> 
> You think its hard to understand? You should try to articulate what i see going on with Gold/Crude/Dollar/Bonds right now!
> 
> CanOz




Suppose I should get into it but I don't see how anyone can predict the market with charts, though I guess certain themes repeat themselves...........I prefer to look up at the sky fondling worry breads and wait for a sign.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Suppose I should get into it but I don't see how anyone can predict the market with charts, though I guess certain themes repeat themselves...........I prefer to look up at the sky fondling worry breads and wait for a sign.




Worry beads?

Charts are just a way to organize the information that the market gives you....this allow you to use the information to form ideas about the probabilities of x or y happening. Also, they give you places where a trade is possible, where the odds of you winning or losing maybe easily decided.

The futures markets drive the equities markets, if there is a reasonable inventory balance to the short side going into this weekend, these people will want to unload their position before the end of business, creating an imbalance, resulting an price rising into the close. Perhaps even in a frantic manner to get the best price. So that is the trade idea, now we just have to wait to see if it play out.

CanOz


----------



## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Worry beads?
> 
> Charts are just a way to organize the information that the market gives you....this allow you to use the information to form ideas about the probabilities of x or y happening. Also, they give you places where a trade is possible, where the odds of you winning or losing maybe easily decided.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the explanation there should be more of it in here, you taking the time is appreciated.

Worry beads, not me but I remember a developer wondering weather to buy a property from me years ago (I was an agent) he fiddled wit these beads and mumbled to himself for ages then decided against it.

The location took off and now it's the home of a very large Dick Smith outlet...................the sale of worry beads declined after that.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Ahh worry beads, like Rene Rivkin...


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Struth...long liquidation???


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Struth...long liquidation???



I sometimes play around with a demo account on Plus500 for trading indexes / forex.   Opened it up whilst I have a quiet few hours.  Long at 4,750, stop set at 4737.   Bet it gets stopped out.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> I sometimes play around with a demo account on Plus500 for trading indexes / forex.   Opened it up whilst I have a quiet few hours.  Long at 4,750, stop set at 4737.   Bet it gets stopped out.





hmmm, you might be alright, some nice green candles on the NK and the SPI now...maybe its started...!


----------



## VSntchr (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> I sometimes play around with a demo account on Plus500 for trading indexes / forex.   Opened it up whilst I have a quiet few hours.  Long at 4,750, stop set at 4737.   Bet it gets stopped out.




I won $500 on a scratchie the other week, so I put it in my IG account and was prepared to lose it. I pretty much treat it as a demo account and trade the index and forex.

I've been going mainly short AUD/USD and Short ASX200.

Its up to $1,200 now. Not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing tho...


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> hmmm, you might be alright, some nice green candles on the NK and the SPI now...maybe its started...!



So far so good.  Also long gold at 1412.91.  Stop 1402.80.   I usually only bring the fake money account out on a Friday night after a few beers for a giggle.    But hey, long weekend and if I go outside I might get sunburnt. 

edit: stop moved to 4,744.  If it goes below that from here the trade is dead.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> So far so good.  Also long gold at 1412.91.  Stop 1402.80.   I usually only bring the fake money account out on a Friday night after a few beers for a giggle.    But hey, long weekend and if I go outside I might get sunburnt.




You want to see the market go off tonight...have you ever sat up and watched Non Farm Payroll night?

Luckily its early here, like 8:30..

CanOz


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> You want to see the market go off tonight...have you ever sat up and watched Non Farm Payroll night?
> 
> Luckily its early here, like 8:30..
> 
> CanOz



I have a few times.   It's even better when Helicopter Ben or someone else opens their mouth.


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

Stop hit!


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Stop hit!





Just a tad too high... lol

Short covering had started yeah?

CanOz


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Just a tad too high... lol
> 
> Short covering had started yeah?
> 
> CanOz



Or just a slow, wavering afternoon.   Everyone probably went to the pub early.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Just offering an _opinion_ before the event. The markets V.short here. Friday arvo counter move is the normal play.




Well it tried but no Cigar :kiffer:


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

The last two 15 minute candles look pretty nasty.    Might be some fun a bit later tonight.  

Having another go long at 4731.  Stop at 4720 this time, which is about the low.   If it goes below that in a hurry look out below....


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Wow, tried and died...

The NK put in a nice little rally until 15 min before the close...


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Having another go long at 4731.  Stop at 4720 this time, which is about the low.   If it goes below that in a hurry look out below....



Dammit... I forgot to close it before the market closed.


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Dammit... I forgot to close it before the market closed.




It'll open again soon....


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> It'll open again soon....



Do you like the look of that hammer bar before the close?


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Do you like the look of that hammer bar before the close?




Didn't catch it...makes little difference i reckon, the DAX is acting like its too short...not moving much.


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> It'll open again soon....



Never re-opened on Plus 500 btw.  I'm not sure how that works, it mustn't be a futures trade.  Either way my trade is still open and up about 40-45 points currently.  Thought that bar looked good.  Shame I can't close it!  Probably be in the red by Monday. 

Lucky it's not real money - but pride is at stake!


----------



## CanOz (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Never re-opened on Plus 500 btw.  I'm not sure how that works, it mustn't be a futures trade.  Either way my trade is still open and up about 40-45 points currently.  Thought that bar looked good.  Shame I can't close it!  Probably be in the red by Monday.
> 
> Lucky it's not real money - but pride is at stake!





mmm...4800 here we come!


----------



## Ves (8 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> mmm...4800 here we come!



Would you believe I got stopped out on the Nikkei at 12,670 earlier too?    God dammit, it just felt like a reversal.  This is why I dont bother trading for real, you can pick the price action and still get it wrong with stop placement. Respect for anyone who does it profitably.


----------



## skyQuake (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Would you believe I got stopped out on the Nikkei at 12,670 earlier too?    God dammit, it just felt like a reversal.  This is why I dont bother trading for real, you can pick the price action and still get it wrong with stop placement. Respect for anyone who does it profitably.




Nikkei hit 12500 on the data :O

I got stopped out to the tick on audcad before it dropped a cent :bad:

Thats life D:


----------



## Ves (8 June 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Nikkei hit 12500 on the data :O
> 
> I got stopped out to the tick on audcad before it dropped a cent :bad:
> 
> Thats life D:



Yep,  that bar on the Nikkei was the one that wiped me out.   It went down and bounced pretty quickly at 10pm-ish from memory.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 June 2013)

Flat lifeless market means healthcare stocks are the only interest.  MSB, SRX, RHC, SIP, NEU.  They may have another few days in them.


----------



## MrBurns (18 June 2013)

Expecting a bounce after Sept 14 ? or will it already be factored in.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Expecting a bounce after Sept 14 ? or will it already be factored in.




Only if Labour win in a landslide.


----------



## PinguPingu (18 June 2013)

If interest rates are cut again, and the AUD keeps slipping against the USD,  yield trades keep unwinding and China remains sluggish to concerning...the trend really does seem one way.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 June 2013)

A good Liberal win baked in for last 6 months = no surprise  = no real reaction.

Liberals win in a unexpected tight one = Bit negative

Labour starts to go up in poles = Uncertainty and fear of another hung parliament = BAD

Labour wins in a landslide = massive surprise but certainty = massive surprise move ........ UP!


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (19 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Labour starts to go up in poles = Uncertainty and fear of another hung parliament = BAD



Using a pole during labour could certainly hurt the baby!  (Perhaps you meant "Labor" and "poll").


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 June 2013)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Using a pole during labour could certainly hurt the baby!  (Perhaps you meant "Labor" and "poll").




Ha yes. Dangers of posting while trading. You look silly and your trades go bad......


----------



## mr. jeff (19 June 2013)

TH what do you think the chances are of a reversal from the current level - 4860 ?
Seems to keep knocking on the door.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 June 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> TH what do you think the chances are of a reversal from the current level - 4860 ?
> Seems to keep knocking on the door.




I was surprised to see the market go bid yesterday after the RBA minutes saying basically they have lots of room for more cuts. That to me says the yield trade un-wind is over for the hot money. We will/should see more XJO/AUDUSD divergence.

New game coming up.

Why whats your read?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 June 2013)

What do you have jeff?

I think it's still long at the moment.


----------



## mr. jeff (19 June 2013)

I'm still seeing a strong rejection of 4860 developing in line with T/A's chart, though lower target of 4560.
I agree that the selling pressure has certainly receded this week although the continued news of earnings downgrades and manuf. industry reductions does support the ongoing theme of yield play reduction which in turn is evidenced by the AUD/USD down move. Haven't been in the AUD/USD for the week as it is disturbingly choppy.
The catalyst to determine the direction for the next leg will be FOMC it seems.
I hate trading before news.


----------



## MrBurns (19 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Only if Labour win in a landslide.




I'll just pencil that in as a quiet day


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

Im short FTSE and suggest that the XJO has seen the high of this corrective move.
I expect it will wallow around for a while between the high of this move and the recient low
before continuing lower.
Ill post chart analysis tonight.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Im short FTSE and suggest that the XJO has seen the high of this corrective move.
> I expect it will wallow around for a while between the high of this move and the recient low
> before continuing lower.
> Ill post chart analysis tonight.



lol.  Dow was down 1.5% overnight.  Are you sure?


----------



## CanOz (20 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> lol.  Dow was down 1.5% overnight.  Are you sure?




What % down did the XAO open this morning?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> What % down did the XAO open this morning?




Seven


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Im short FTSE and suggest that the XJO has seen the high of this corrective move.
> I expect it will wallow around for a while between the high of this move and the recient low
> before continuing lower.
> Ill post chart analysis tonight.




Err yeh??


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 June 2013)

You guys are all just panicking. Will be higher by tomorrow and higher still this time next week.




Now where is my stop?


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> You guys are all just panicking. Will be higher by tomorrow and higher still this time next week.
> 
> Now where is my stop?




Hmm what you think???


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Hmm what you think???
> 
> View attachment 52877




Hang on, here we go. 




Or maybe I have been effected by the chemtrails


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> You guys are all just panicking. Will be higher by tomorrow and higher still this time next week.




Worst call ever,


----------



## skc (20 June 2013)

Just waves and waves and waves of selling. I called the low of the day at 4730, then 4710, then 4690 as we speak...

Normally on a day like this there'd be dislocation everywhere... yet for some reason I haven't got many new trades to put on. Things are just being sold off in line with their sector peers. How boring!


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

skc said:


> Just waves and waves and waves of selling. I called the low of the day at 4730, then 4710, then 4690 as we speak...
> 
> Normally on a day like this there'd be dislocation everywhere... yet for some reason I haven't got many new trades to put on. Things are just being sold off in line with their sector peers. How boring!




How exciting!


----------



## CanOz (20 June 2013)

All red here....still


----------



## Trembling Hand (20 June 2013)

skc said:


> Just waves and waves and waves of selling. I called the low of the day at 4730, then 4710, then 4690 as we speak...
> 
> Normally on a day like this there'd be dislocation everywhere... yet for some reason I haven't got many new trades to put on. Things are just being sold off in line with their sector peers. How boring!




Seems to be somewhat futs related. None of the big caps are anywhere near the last lows yet the movement looks like the kind of stuff you get when stops are hit minute after minute all day long.

Asian Indexes getting hammered. Breaking new lows everywhere! HSI, Kospi, China, Taiwan!!

Great day to be flipping but boy what action.

Evil Marco funds?


----------



## sinner (20 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Seems to be somewhat futs related. None of the big caps are anywhere near the last lows yet the movement looks like the kind of stuff you get when stops are hit minute after minute all day long.




What I'm hearing is lots of instos are *very* unwilling to exit in the money cash longs and actively hedging their positions to flat in the futs and ETF markets.


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

tech/a said:


> Im short FTSE and suggest that the XJO has seen the high of this corrective move.
> I expect it will wallow around for a while between the high of this move and the recient low
> before continuing lower.
> Ill post chart analysis tonight.






tech/a said:


> How exciting!




Nice


----------



## Zedd (20 June 2013)

sinner said:


> What I'm hearing is lots of instos are *very* unwilling to exit in the money cash longs and actively hedging their positions to flat in the futs and ETF markets.




Could you decipher this for me Sinner?

Is it that institutional investors are happy with their valuations and portfolios so aren't shifting, but are hedging against any short-term corrections? 
Would I be correct in saying that's a vote of confidence in the market by the instos, looking towards end of year?


----------



## CanOz (20 June 2013)

Zedd said:


> Could you decipher this for me Sinner?
> 
> Is it that institutional investors are happy with their valuations and portfolios so aren't shifting, but are hedging against any short-term corrections?
> Would I be correct in saying that's a vote of confidence in the market by the instos, looking towards end of year?




Tomorrow is option exp., there are lots of longs or institutions that are long the cash index options. So instead of selling the positions, or unwinding them, they're hedging to flat, or taking the opposite position in the futures and ETFs. That means shorting the futures and ETFs.

How'd i Do?

I'm not sure i understand why they want to do this so close to Exp day though??So now i'm guessing i'm missing something.

CanOz


----------



## PinguPingu (20 June 2013)

Well, Chinese flash pmi falls again...not boding well

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/06/20/hsbc-flash-china-manufacturing-pmi-more/#more-296213

AUD is also getting bashed again


----------



## drsmith (20 June 2013)

I would have thought that it would have been a good thing long term for the US to be in a position to ease up on the quantitative easing. Bearing in mind the market gains since 2009 there, is there any real problem with a bit of froth coming off the top ?

Then there's China. :dunno:

We are so dependent on China.


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 June 2013)

SPI is showing some good strength. Lets see if it can get a leg up from China. Looks to be another gap down but I'd its just gotta bounce......... doesn't it?


----------



## mr. jeff (21 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> SPI is showing some good strength. Lets see if it can get a leg up from China. Looks to be another gap down but I'd its just gotta bounce......... doesn't it?




I expect the return to 4735. Then head back down. The next leg down may take a bit longer to form...Still have to see a break and close of 4690 before moving down properly again. There has been a surprising rejection of that level this morning.


----------



## MrBurns (26 June 2013)

I suspect.... ............when Gillard gets the boot today the market will rally, after Sept 14 the market will rally, when the US confirms it will not stop printing money the market will rally, when it becomes apparent that lowering interest rates has led to inflation the market will rally.

I suspect......


----------



## mr. jeff (26 June 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> I expect the return to 4735. Then head back down. The next leg down may take a bit longer to form...Still have to see a break and close of 4690 before moving down properly again. There has been a surprising rejection of that level this morning.




If only I traded it this way... Still watching.

Looking at the daily chart, downtrend is healthy but not convincing.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 June 2013)

I'm back in.  A few charts broke out today.


----------



## CanOz (27 June 2013)

This is really just looking like a bounce, my index filter is still bright red...


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm back in.  A few charts broke out today.




System trading or disc?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> System trading or disc?




disc

You long or short?


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> disc
> 
> You long or short?




Lol


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Lol




Silly me, I thought you'd grown up.

Still a little boy playing little boy games.


----------



## CanOz (27 June 2013)

GB...

You ask an intra-day directional trader if he's long or short????

Then you wonder why you get "lol"

I'm guessing he's been long most of the morning then short most of the arvo...You get it?

Can't imagine how many trades that must be though...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 June 2013)

Xactly Can........

I'm long a very nice bottle of red at the mo...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> GB...
> 
> You ask an intra-day directional trader if he's long or short????
> 
> ...




Geeez sorry canoz.  I don't have TH's resume sitting infront of me like you obviously do.  Some people trade multiple instruments over multiple time frames.  F-wit.


----------



## CanOz (27 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Geeez sorry canoz.  I don't have TH's resume sitting infront of me like you obviously do.  Some people trade multiple instruments over multiple time frames.  *F-wit*.




ROTF
lol...

Edit: My apologies GB, i should not have come across so sarcastic. 

My point is, almost everyone that is a technical or short term trader knows that TH is a Prop Trader, outright directional intra-day. So most also understand that it means he's flat at the end of the day, after having taken multiple trades in both directions through out the session. 

Most of us know because we've done it at some point or another....

Position traders though, might have a long or short position overnight for a few days....

Please forgive my terse behavior.

CanOz


----------



## mr. jeff (1 July 2013)

mr. jeff said:


> If only I traded it this way... Still watching.
> 
> Looking at the daily chart, downtrend is healthy but not convincing.




A resumption of the selling so far - as long as it stays below that line of resistance I am staying on the short side
looking for 4650 to start


----------



## frankcs (1 July 2013)

guess it will continue down to 4590


----------



## Country Lad (1 July 2013)

frankcs said:


> guess it will continue down to 4590




I'm looking for 4590 and if that fails, then around the 4500 mark.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 July 2013)

CanOz said:


> Please forgive my terse behavior.
> 
> CanOz




No worries Can.  It's a banter thread after all.  

:shoot:      :bigun2:


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 July 2013)

FMG, AGO decent breakouts on low volume.

Property stocks - many have breakouts over the last few days and holding.  Some weak, some stronger  Yield I guess.

DYE


----------



## mr. jeff (9 July 2013)

Banging into 4860 - will it hold below 4880 ?
if it can there may be a serious rejection coming
still intending to sell the down move
still see strength coming from US which may propel market up through resistance

- A few bad reporting sessions could kill it off but at this stage unknown still

thoughts ?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 July 2013)

What's bothering me is the patterns I'm seeing.  There's a heck of a lot of near breakouts over the past week, with prices sitting right on the trendline for days on end.  I don't like that.  The ones that did breakout have almost all been weak performers.


----------



## coolcup (9 July 2013)

The chart below shows the recent further downward pressure being exerted on the A$. It has broken resoundingly through support at $0.97 and $0.93 and the downward trend certainly looks like it has some way to play out. Primary support appears to sit at around $0.80.




The clear question is: how sustainable will the current rally in the ASX 200 be in the face of further pressure on the Australian dollar? From May 20 to June 25 the A$ fell about 5% against the US$. The local ASX 200 fell over 10% in the same period.


----------



## tinhat (10 July 2013)

coolcup said:


> The chart below shows the recent further downward pressure being exerted on the A$. It has broken resoundingly through support at $0.97 and $0.93 and the downward trend certainly looks like it has some way to play out. Primary support appears to sit at around $0.80.
> 
> View attachment 53247
> 
> ...




A year or two ago it was the high AUD that was the cause of stock price woes (especially in relation to the bullish S&P500). Now its because the AUD is falling. It's a tough game.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 July 2013)

For what it's worth I reckon the XAO has bottomed atm, most heavy stocks have consolidated at reasonable lows and my RSI's are showing a quite significant divergence on the stocks I buy and sell.

So I'm buying ++

gg


----------



## Muschu (11 July 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> For what it's worth I reckon the XAO has bottomed atm, most heavy stocks have consolidated at reasonable lows and my RSI's are showing a quite significant divergence on the stocks I buy and sell.
> 
> So I'm buying ++
> 
> gg




You may well be right GG.  Up today and, at this stage, looking like another positive day tomorrow... Or are we just going sideways - up a bit - down a bit -- Very hard to have any confidence in this market imo.  It seems we get quite significant reactions to any taste of good or poor news.  I gather volumes are still low?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 July 2013)

I'm starting to think it's topped out for the moment.  Maybe a pullback to say... 4847 or 4903 Fib retracement.


----------



## skc (17 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'm starting to think it's topped out for the moment.  Maybe a pullback to say... 4847 or 4903 Fib retracement.




Uncle Bens testimony tonight so anything goes.

Hands up anyone who's still awake watching the SPI... 5 pt range since lunch...


----------



## mr. jeff (18 July 2013)

Looking for a break of 4960 to confirm weakness and shorts down - to break the recent range of 4960 - 5015. If not, then still waiting for a break above for continuation. 
Either way there are signals coming...thoughts ? 
The US was a big battle overnight with nothing to show for it - perhaps worth noting in itself.


----------



## coolcup (21 July 2013)

Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed a similar pattern between the current price action on the ASX200 and the lead up to the GFC?

Lead up to GFC



Lead up to present


----------



## Country Lad (21 July 2013)

Interesting observation CC.  

What I have noticed in the scans over the past couple of weeks is that by far the majority look very "toppy".  Just an impression based on the charts and price movements, but similar to periods before many of the previous downturns.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## tech/a (21 July 2013)

Hmmm
I dont think so.




Seeing some similarities in the daily and weekly.
Looking for a small pull back 4900 ish then 5350 at least.
If that comes off 6000 a distinct possibility.


----------



## skc (21 July 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Interesting observation CC.
> 
> What I have noticed in the scans over the past couple of weeks is that by far the majority look very "toppy".  Just an impression based on the charts and price movements, but similar to periods before many of the previous downturns.
> 
> ...




Yes but only if you look at the stocks that's performed well in the last 12 months. Financials, REITs, stables and selected industrials are at multi-year highs and some of them do look toppy, esp with lofty EPS growth estimates that may be trimmed back in the upcoming reporting season.

The next phase of up move in the XAO however will have to come from the resources space imo. And plenty of them are forming potential bottoms. Many of these stocks are sold down to levels much ahead of actual EPS or commodity price declines. 

I don't know if a resource-led push up is terribly sustainable or how many points there are in it... but it's a pretty plausible scenario for the next quarter.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 July 2013)

coolcup said:


> Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed a similar pattern between the current price action on the ASX200 and the lead up to the GFC?
> 
> Lead up to GFC
> View attachment 53490
> ...




It appears that your first chart displays the market movement over a period of several years where-as your second chart displays the market movement over a period of 8 months or so. Not a true comparison.


----------



## coolcup (22 July 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> It appears that your first chart displays the market movement over a period of several years where-as your second chart displays the market movement over a period of 8 months or so. Not a true comparison.




Sure. I didn't intend for it to be predictive. I was just interested in the shape. I personally don't think the fact that the time scales are different really matters. Is a head and shoulders less reliable because it happens over 3 years vs 3 months?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 July 2013)

coolcup said:


> Sure. I didn't intend for it to be predictive. I was just interested in the shape. I personally don't think the fact that the time scales are different really matters. Is a head and shoulders less reliable because it happens over 3 years vs 3 months?




I'd say in general the longer the time frame, the more reliable.  But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered.  In other words it has to be obvious to all those who make the prices move - the institutions.


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2013)

coolcup said:


> Sure. I didn't intend for it to be predictive. I was just interested in the shape. I personally don't think the fact that the time scales are different really matters. Is a head and shoulders less reliable because it happens over 3 years vs 3 months?




Err you sure about that? Other than folklore you have any evidence that the statement that H&S patterns are reliable?


----------



## Trembling Hand (22 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered.




There may be one of your problems with the endless search for profitably. Looking for the holy grail in the perfect pattern. 

The edges are in the ugly patterns. Not some nice gentle "look everyone can see it" setups.


----------



## skyQuake (22 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'd say in general the longer the time frame, the more reliable.  But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered.  In other words it has to be obvious to all those who make the prices move - the institutions.




The more perfect the pattern, the more I rub my hands with glee and go in with size for the fls brk.
Moreso futures than equities.


----------



## coolcup (22 July 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Err you sure about that? Other than folklore you have any evidence that the statement that H&S patterns are reliable?




I am not trying to say that a H&S is reliable or unreliable. I don't really care either way. The point I am making is that the time frame it is measured over does not of itself affect the reliability of the pattern. So if you believe a H&S is reliable (am not saying it is) or any other pattern for that matter, it should be reliable over a short time period or a longer one. 

It was in response to nulla nulla who was saying my observation was false because it wasn't over the exact timeframe as the chart leading up to the GFC. I wasn't trying to show an exact match it was just a point of interest to me that the chart patterns looked similar.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 July 2013)

skyQuake said:


> The more perfect the pattern, the more I rub my hands with glee and go in with size for the fls brk.
> Moreso futures than equities.




That makes sense for a shorter time frame because it's likely that the price will revisit the breakout point.  When you're covering your short, I might be buying for a longer time frame.


----------



## tinhat (24 July 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I'd say in general the longer the time frame, the more reliable.  But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered.  In other words it has to be obvious to all those who make the prices move - the institutions.




My observation is that P&F charts display more symmetry than time based charts.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (31 July 2013)

5000 tomorrow.  :bananasmi


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 August 2013)

Distribution happening last 5 days, imo.  Any lower today and a trendline is broken.  Might see the banana dance yet!


----------



## sinner (1 August 2013)

coolcup said:


> The point I am making is that the time frame it is measured over does not of itself affect the reliability of the pattern. So if you believe a H&S is reliable (am not saying it is) or any other pattern for that matter, it should be reliable over a short time period or a longer one.




My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.

Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.


----------



## tech/a (1 August 2013)

sinner said:


> My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.
> 
> Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.




Agree with this.
Patterns have a life span.
You could hardly credit a 200 Tick move in the SPI 
to a rectangle breakout of a 10 tick range.

Patterns form in all time frames and some contradict others.
They are simply graphical representation of those involved in the trading of the instrument.


----------



## coolcup (1 August 2013)

sinner said:


> My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.
> 
> Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.




Far out dude. I am not interested in back validating anything. I just saw a similar pattern now to pre GFC which was amusing / interesting. If you don't believe in it, then that's fine. I am not advocating it either way, just thought it was interesting.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 August 2013)

I don't like the way the market is now.  Needs some fear in it.  Without fear there's no market, because fear is greed's flipside.

Maybe that's what Bernake is trying to do - remove fear from the market.  

- - - Updated - - -



sinner said:


> My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.
> 
> Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.




Sinner can I see your backtests on pattern reliability and time frame please?


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I don't like the way the market is now.




You never do. And seem to spew up at all the wrong times. Maybe you would be better just trading a system?


----------



## sinner (2 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Sinner can I see your backtests on pattern reliability and time frame please?




Sure, pick a quant pattern, and two timeframes, and I can show you 1000 bar results for both. 

If you're picking an intraday timeframe for comparison then I'll be testing FX, because that is the high quality intraday data I have.

I can do daily/weekly/monthly for everything else.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 August 2013)

sinner said:


> Sure, pick a quant pattern, and two timeframes, and I can show you 1000 bar results for both.




say descending wedge, upwards breakout, daily vs weekly and weekly versus monthly.

[edited]


----------



## sinner (2 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> say descending triangle, daily vs weekly vs monthly.




lol, please quantify what is a descending triangle, that is really not what I meant by quant pattern.

Maybe I should've given some examples: 20 day closing high, last bar in lowest 20% of N day range, Close above 20 day closing average price...hold for N days.


----------



## CanOz (2 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> say descending wedge, upwards breakout, daily vs weekly and weekly versus monthly.
> 
> [edited]




Not sure you'll find a ton of weekly monthly wedges...what about daily, 60m and 5m?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 August 2013)

sinner said:


> Maybe I should've given some examples: 20 day closing high, last bar in lowest 20% of N day range, Close above 20 day closing average price...hold for N days.




That example is fine thanks.


----------



## Zedd (2 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I don't like the way the market is now.  Needs some fear in it




Agree. I felt that in the last 12 months we'd finally moved out of the skittishness of the GFC, and massive swings between overly optimistic and overly pessimistic. It felt like global macro-economic news was being incorporated into movements - ie. good news = market up, bad news = market down. Since the "tapering" comment, where we had a brief pull back, optimism is clearly in charge again, and nothing seems to be tempering the move up. FOMO but quite concerned that there seems to be a lot of collective back-patting going on.


----------



## CanOz (2 August 2013)

Zedd said:


> Agree. I felt that in the last 12 months we'd finally moved out of the skittishness of the GFC, and massive swings between overly optimistic and overly pessimistic. It felt like global macro-economic news was being incorporated into movements - ie. good news = market up, bad news = market down. Since the "tapering" comment, where we had a brief pull back, optimism is clearly in charge again, and nothing seems to be tempering the move up. FOMO but quite concerned that there seems to be a lot of collective back-patting going on.




lol, now its like good news = market goes up because its good news! Bad news = market goes up because a possibility of a later taper!


----------



## sinner (2 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> That example is fine thanks.




Hehe, those were a list of examples? Sorry, I can show whichever you like, but please specify exactly which one  ...also with the caveat I prob don't have 1000 bars of monthly data for anything but the SP500 and US credit?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 August 2013)

sinner said:


> Hehe, those were a list of examples? Sorry, I can show whichever you like, but please specify exactly which one  ...also with the caveat I prob don't have 1000 bars of monthly data for anything but the SP500 and US credit?




I guess I'm more interested in the general theme, as opposed to specific patterns.  Did you find that the bigger the time frame, the more reliable?  It seems this way for the patterns I track.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 August 2013)

Chart shows regime change from mean-reverting (blue) to trending (yellow).


----------



## CanOz (5 August 2013)

Interesting GB, how can you use that for your trading?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 August 2013)

CanOz said:


> Interesting GB, how can you use that for your trading?




Not sure if I can yet.  

Trying to figure out a system for trading STW based on this.


----------



## CanOz (5 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Not sure if I can yet.
> 
> Trying to figure out a system for trading STW based on this.




I can think of a few, just thinking out loud, i'm sure sinner would give you a more acemdemic perspective.

1.) Strategy filter for an Index System - Switched between MR and TF

2.) Use as a simple Index filter to turn a TF system on and off, i.e. from cash to invested.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 August 2013)

CanOz said:


> I can think of a few, just thinking out loud, i'm sure sinner would give you a more acemdemic perspective.
> 
> 1.) Strategy filter for an Index System - Switched between MR and TF
> 
> 2.) Use as a simple Index filter to turn a TF system on and off, i.e. from cash to invested.




The signals aren't actually as good as they look in the chart I posted.

You can have a play around with it yourself:  http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/2013/02/TradersTips.html#item6


----------



## CanOz (5 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The signals aren't actually as good as they look in the chart I posted.
> 
> You can have a play around with it yourself:  http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/2013/02/TradersTips.html#item6




thanks, I've got enough to play with lol...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 August 2013)

78.6% retrace of the big drop is providing the resistance.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Distribution happening last 5 days, imo.  Any lower today and a trendline is broken.  Might see the banana dance yet!




 :bananasmi

Need to change my internal clock.  Always a week early.

Despite the drop, no good shorts out there.  So it can't be too bad.


----------



## sinner (8 August 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I guess I'm more interested in the general theme, as opposed to specific patterns.  Did you find that the bigger the time frame, the more reliable?  It seems this way for the patterns I track.




Generally, yes. But this is an artifact of using time based charts, because while you might find a 20 week closing high has better 5 bar returns than a 20 day closing highs 5 bar returns, obviously the test is not comparing equivalents, the second test could also be said "1 week closing high returns only on Fridays with 1 week holding period".


----------



## sinner (8 August 2013)

CanOz said:


> I can think of a few, just thinking out loud, i'm sure sinner would give you a more acemdemic perspective.
> 
> 1.) Strategy filter for an Index System - Switched between MR and TF
> 
> 2.) Use as a simple Index filter to turn a TF system on and off, i.e. from cash to invested.




Nope I agree with what you said.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 August 2013)

Not a strong day by the looks.  No follow through.


----------



## tinhat (20 August 2013)

The market could go sideways or keep drifting up for the rest of the year but I think the real story is going to be churn especially post this reporting season. Some sectors are trading at 30x P/E and others at 6x P/E. Forecasts will be adjusted and so too the P/Es.

I've gone long gold miners, oilers and retailers recently and also dabbling with a few mining services. Gone short banks. Also bought some listed property trusts (commercial and leisure) because I still want some income dribbling into the pension account.

Setting my stops and watching.


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 September 2013)

tinhat said:


> The market could go sideways or keep drifting up for the rest of the year but I think the real story is going to be churn especially post this reporting season. Some sectors are trading at 30x P/E and others at 6x P/E. Forecasts will be adjusted and so too the P/Es.





The Aussie stock holders held firm through the DJ 900 point pullback while today saw a break higher. I was looking for a bearish market but with low interest rates, are billions being poured into stocks???


----------



## notting (5 September 2013)

Greece needs another bail out.
US Debt ceiling is about to be debated again.
And tapering will probably start this month.
Knew comers to the crisis, India and Indonesia,  have fallen off a cliff.
Is China becoming the consumer economy? 
No.
The market rallied because manufacturing is picking up according to the BS peddled by it's leaders.

That kind of thing used to be known as a crisis.

Now?

Everythings looking pretty good and market PEs are pretty much sitting at long term average.


Yawn. Complacency for dinner again tonight.

(don't mention the war)


----------



## tinhat (11 September 2013)

Markets across all regions seem to be on a trot lately. Shanghai composite is on run - will it turn the corner?

I form some of my sentiment from listening to chartist Lance Lai. His most recent prognostications:
http://www.switzer.com.au/video/lai-20130910/

Does anyone know if Lance is regularly published elsewhere?

Another pull-back on the Aussie market some time in Sept-Oct might see the formation of a nice inverted head and shoulders on the weekly chart. Otherwise I would be happy for a leisurely trot up to 5400 by the end of the calendar year.

I'm keeping my eye on the copper chart. The chart could be seen as a falling wedge or a descending triangle (depending on how much weight you give to the oct 11 and june 13 lows). It looks set to break one way or another - the more likely direction seems up to me. It's been a while since it has crossed over the 200 day MA (Feb 2013).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 September 2013)

I reckon we could get to a high of 5264 today.  Fibo extension.


----------



## MrBurns (19 September 2013)

Market should soar today - 



> US Federal Reserve will not reduce $US85 billion-a-month stimulus program




http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-...2485-billion-a-month-stimulus-program/4966994


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 September 2013)

What caused that just then?


----------



## notting (23 September 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What caused that just then?




China's manufacturing data announcement release beat expectations.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (23 September 2013)

notting said:


> China's manufacturing data announcement release beat expectations.




Right you are, thanks.

Support line respected also.


----------



## 13ugs13unny (23 September 2013)

notting said:


> China's manufacturing data announcement release beat expectations.




Still got the big apple to play out the debt ceiling issue. Sides do not see eye to eye and have dug in.

my prediction is markets will bend a knee, how much though?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 September 2013)

I reckon that's it, we're either at or very close to a top.

Warmer weather.  Time to get the shorts on?


----------



## notting (27 September 2013)

It's all in the hands of the Fed who just fattened the cow for congress to have it's tea party.
Employment was good, so there's some more fuel for the hangover.
Just waiting for Mr. Murdoch to put is debt ticker all over the TVs again.
That should do wonders for confidence.

But hey cowboy we don't care any more, we got through the crises and can do anything -


----------



## 13ugs13unny (29 September 2013)

notting said:


> It's all in the hands of the Fed who just fattened the cow for congress to have it's tea party.
> Employment was good, so there's some more fuel for the hangover.
> Just waiting for Mr. Murdoch to put is debt ticker all over the TVs again.
> That should do wonders for confidence.
> ...



So who's a contrarian? time to buy? I particularly like your graph with Bollinger Bands with twice ballooning this year, I'm going for a hat trick that it will balloon again, its way over due anyway.

You know its all crap when congress countdown clocks are starting to show up on business sites to scare the be-jesus of the masses so the stocks can dip so the rich can buy in, how else does it go up 10% more than the last high?

Blustering over obamacare/medicare and debt ceilings (again)when USA gdp is on way to 20 trillion just doesn't seem to be that exciting. I think they will kick the can down road again.

Here's my own countdown clock for ASX to start as business as usual.

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130930T10&p0=240&msg=ASX+business+as+usual.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 October 2013)

5145 +/- 3 points is the next target for me.


----------



## CanOz (7 October 2013)

Yeah wow, WTF? Its dragging the NK down now...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 October 2013)

CanOz said:


> Yeah wow, WTF? Its dragging the NK down now...




Dunno, but I'm short and for the first time ever I have reasonable size on!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 October 2013)

I expected that to take a few days.  Covered at 5147.


----------



## skc (7 October 2013)

CanOz said:


> Yeah wow, WTF? Its dragging the NK down now...




Rare to see us leading the pack esp on a supposedly quiet day. I was ready to take a mid-morning snooze when we head south for 50 points in 30 minutes.



Gringotts Bank said:


> Dunno, but I'm short and for the first time ever I have reasonable size on!




Definitely a clean break of support at 5200. The question is how deep will any retracement be..


----------



## tech/a (7 October 2013)

What are you guys trading?
It's a public holiday!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 October 2013)

tech/a said:


> What are you guys trading?
> It's a public holiday!




Normal work day in Melb.


----------



## tech/a (7 October 2013)

Ic
Adelaides closed again.
I knew there are benefits in living here.


----------



## skc (7 October 2013)

tech/a said:


> What are you guys trading?
> It's a public holiday!




I am going on a 3 weeks holiday soon so need to earn some spending money


----------



## Country Lad (7 October 2013)

tech/a said:


> What are you guys trading?
> It's a public holiday!




Any thing you like - markets are open.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 October 2013)

At the current rate, XAO will finish in the green by 30 odd points.

Would have to break out of the descending wedge pattern first.  Got pushed back just then.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 October 2013)

It broke out but I think that's all it's got.  5153 high for the day?  Or will it get to 5167?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2013)

I reckon +20 tomorrow.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I reckon +20 tomorrow.




x4!

It's hard to imagine the Ords having another big day tomorrow.  It would have to be bearish from this point into tomorrow, wouldn't it?  Net sideways for next week?  Time to look at the biomeds and tech stocks perhaps.  MSB was active earlier.


----------



## skc (11 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> x4!
> 
> It's hard to imagine the Ords having another big day tomorrow.  It would have to be bearish from this point into tomorrow, wouldn't it?  Net sideways for next week?  Time to look at the biomeds and tech stocks perhaps.  MSB was active earlier.




I am willing to bet the ASX will not have a big day tomorrow.

Volume will be extremely light and the index will not move at all, regardless of what happens overnight.


----------



## qldfrog (11 October 2013)

skc said:


> I am willing to bet the ASX will not have a big day tomorrow.
> 
> Volume will be extremely light and the index will not move at all, regardless of what happens overnight.




+1


----------



## Country Lad (11 October 2013)

skc said:


> I am willing to bet the ASX will not have a big day tomorrow.




My prediction would be 5228.8 for the XAO tomorrow. 

Cheers 
Country Lad


----------



## cynic (11 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> x4!
> 
> It's hard to imagine the Ords having another big day tomorrow.  It would have to be bearish from this point into tomorrow, wouldn't it?  Net sideways for next week?  Time to look at the biomeds and tech stocks perhaps.  MSB was active earlier.






skc said:


> I am willing to bet the ASX will not have a big day tomorrow.
> 
> Volume will be extremely light and the index will not move at all, regardless of what happens overnight.






qldfrog said:


> +1






Country Lad said:


> My prediction would be 5228.8 for the XAO tomorrow.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




That's great to know folks! (Oh, what a difference a business day makes!)

Would anyone care to make a similar prediction for the XJO futures?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2013)

How do I bet that the market won't move much this week, (without using options or warrants)?


----------



## CanOz (14 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How do I bet that the market won't move much this week, (without using options or warrants)?




don't trade

Edit: let me elaborate..Don't trend trade....i agree that the market looks like it could bracket here, or range. So one way to trade it would be to trade the extremes of the range...mean reversion, fade the highs and lows.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2013)

CanOz said:


> don't trade
> 
> Edit: let me elaborate..Don't trend trade....i agree that the market looks like it could bracket here, or range. So one way to trade it would be to trade the extremes of the range...mean reversion, fade the highs and lows.




Come on Canoz, use those new eyeballs of yours and find me something!


----------



## CanOz (14 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Come on Canoz, use those new eyeballs of yours and find me something!




lol...eyeball...

don't be lazy, present some analysis.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2013)

I've got nothing visual but my breakout and breakdown scans are pretty much empty, so I think it looks like a sideways market.

I'll have a look for some obvious supp/res lines for the index, thanks.


----------



## CanOz (14 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've got nothing visual but my breakout and breakdown scans are pretty much empty, so I think it looks like a sideways market.
> 
> I'll have a look for some obvious supp/res lines for the index, thanks.




Post up your trend lines etc., and i'll show you where the volume is in that regards....after lunch and a haircut


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 October 2013)

CanOz said:


> Post up your trend lines etc., and i'll show you where the volume is in that regards....after lunch and a haircut




I'd use today's bar, (high, low and close) as S/R.


----------



## skc (14 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> How do I bet that the market *won't move much this week*, (without using options or warrants)?




Bet with me. I'd take the opposite side of your trade.

With debt ceiling coming up 17 Oct, a resolution will see the market surge while a lack of solution will see markets wane. So I hold the exact opposite view to what you are thinking. Although I don't really have an idea on which way it'd break.


----------



## CanOz (14 October 2013)

Yeah i sort of took that statement as he meant "won't move much this week" until the US resolves the impasse....


----------



## notting (14 October 2013)

Obama appears to be rejecting a temporary debt lift.
So the Republicans may respond by allowing a debt ceiling breach.
What is important to note is that an actual default will not happen until the end of this month which no one will allow to happen.
So there is more room for circus tricks than most pundits are proclaiming, this is just making the game of chicken a little more exiting.
It's making me feel bearish that there is more room for the farce to continue.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2013)

skc said:


> Bet with me. I'd take the opposite side of your trade.
> 
> With debt ceiling coming up 17 Oct, a resolution will see the market surge while a lack of solution will see markets wane. So I hold the exact opposite view to what you are thinking. Although I don't really have an idea on which way it'd break.




 

How 'bout them Yankees?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2013)

The chart is very hard to interpret right now.  I think the market must be exploring for support and resistance levels.   Other than the recent high, there's nothing to go by.  That's why I thought it would go sideways.

Some of the constituents have had breakouts, many sitting on resistance.


----------



## pavilion103 (17 October 2013)

Challenging to read right now!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2013)

I had a bad feeling about the DOW so I get up in the middle of the night to close my posi on the au200 and it's in profit!  Either I'm still asleep or....

ok I'm back off to bed.  Position closed.


----------



## qldfrog (18 October 2013)

hum dow up all day and trending up..not suree you should have woken up...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 October 2013)

qldfrog said:


> hum dow up all day and trending up..not suree you should have woken up...




At that time of morning the Dow was -64 I think and the au200 was up close to my next day target of 5300, so it worked out ok, though I could have done a fair bit better.

Still nervous on this market.

I was going by the old maxim "sell down to a sleeping level"!


----------



## MrBurns (28 October 2013)

Wanted to buy more TLS

Go to NAB Trade - tried to transfer funds - unexpected error 

Tried to place order by phone , after 10 minutes wait hung up 

TLS rose about 8c in that time and still going. 

Are the CBA any better ?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 October 2013)

I think 5467 might be a high turning point for a move back down to 5367.

Currently 5447.


----------



## tech/a (28 October 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think 5467 might be a high turning point for a move back down to 5367.
> 
> Currently 5447.




With the US printing more money until Jan
China with good growth figures.
I cant see why we wont maintain new highs.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 October 2013)

tech/a said:


> With the US printing more money until Jan
> China with good growth figures.
> I cant see why we wont maintain new highs.




My analysis gave me those numbers.  But my gut feel agrees with you.  Maybe I'll wait to see how it behaves when it reaches that number.  I seem to do better when the two are aligned, not giving opposite signals.


----------



## CanOz (28 October 2013)

Interesting in that the SPI makes a big move on many an occurance of an inside day....


----------



## Whiskers (7 November 2013)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

I'll bring this one over here, away from the political threads as it will likely bear on the market if not reversed.

The unemployment rate trend continues upwards despite a slight reprieve last month, but the full time employed has been flatish for some time with the latest number down to lows. While there is a rise in the part time/casual work, the loss of a 'full time' job must eventually weigh on peoples confidence to spend.

Retail sales are sluggish and while real estate has kicked in come areas it's hard to see it continuing let alone taking up the slack from a slowing mining industry.

What is holding the market up... just optimism, based on RBA forecasts of inflation?

I'd stick my neck out and suggest their monetary policy got the mix wrong and likely sending us back to or close to recession. The main drivers of inflation is imported inflationary pressures  that could have been lowered with harder monetary policy earlier, esp not increasing rates so quickly after the GFC but more importantly not lowering again quickly when it started to go wrong. They could have let the (artificially imported) inflation rate peak on the high side for a bit to allow the economy to adjust better long term.

On the cynical side... with the recent comments from the treasurer after his visit to the US, could it be that the RBA Big L Liberal philosophy deliberately favoured our big banks at the expense of our more critical export sector, in the expectation of generating a property and consumption led mini recovery for their own best interests, hence to justify their needs for strong profits to cover any downturn and bad/unrecoverable debts when their short sighted, even self-interests policy goes all pear shaped for the wider economy.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 November 2013)

Big open on the XJO tomorrow. SPI Dec contract closed at 5464, some 60+ points higher than XJO's Friday close.

I remember reading a post some time ago on Trembling Hands blog site; "The Bull is in the Gaps!".


----------



## RazzaDazzla (11 November 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> I remember reading a post some time ago on Trembling Hands blog site; "The Bull is in the Gaps!".




Perhaps the Bear is in the gap fill.


----------



## Struzball (13 November 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think 5467 might be a high turning point for a move back down to 5367.
> 
> Currently 5447.




Well it's moved to 5367 - then gone lower.. I believe from here it will run up to 5500 by the end of November before a long move down to 4500 by the end of 2014.  I don't have any fancy charts so would be good if others who do real analysis lined up with my outlook.

Either way, I'll change my mind when I change my mind.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 November 2013)

Struzball said:


> Well it's moved to 5367 - then gone lower.. I believe from here it will run up to 5500 by the end of November before a long move down to 4500 by the end of 2014.  I don't have any fancy charts so would be good if others who do real analysis lined up with my outlook.
> 
> Either way, I'll change my mind when I change my mind.




There's an extended flag pattern - that's all I'm seeing at the moment.  And it doesn't want to break to the upside yet.  

I'm off to see Jack Shwager speak tonight.  Hopefully some good info in that.  Anyone else going?


----------



## MrBurns (13 November 2013)

I think it's going down for a little while, just gut feel, perhaps it's the weather here in Melbourne


----------



## pavilion103 (13 November 2013)

Is there any specific reason why this has continued to fall sharply today and is down so much?

Any news or anything that I have missed? Or just selling because it was overextended!


----------



## skc (13 November 2013)

pavilion103 said:


> Is there any specific reason why this has continued to fall sharply today and is down so much?
> 
> Any news or anything that I have missed? Or just selling because it was overextended!




Tapering talk again. Some Fed member said something to the effect that it might start in Dec... for real this time.

Hence fall in $A, gold and emerging markets in general.

The last 2 days were pretty telling. Open high and finished very weak... well that's my hindsight observation for the day anyway.


----------



## kid hustlr (13 November 2013)

skc said:


> *Tapering talk again. Some Fed member said something to the effect that it might start in Dec... for real this time.*
> 
> Hence fall in $A, gold and emerging markets in general.
> 
> The last 2 days were pretty telling. Open high and finished very weak... well that's my hindsight observation for the day anyway.




Not so sure about the bolded, US treasuries (and our bonds for that matter) have been bid all day.

Pav you know why its fallen, more sellers than buyers.

XAO is pretty much just our banks anyway, they've been heavy this week.


----------



## skc (13 November 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> Not so sure about the bolded, US treasuries (and our bonds for that matter) have been bid all day.




From the AFR.



> The ASX dropped and the Australian dollar weakened to trade below US93 ¢ after the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president suggested the US central bank might consider a reduction of its $US85 billion a month bond buying program in December.
> 
> Mr Fisher, who will become a voting member of the Fed’s policy setting committee next year, reiterated his stance that the nation’s stimulus program could not last forever. Given the size of the stimulus program, the continuing debate over the timing of any tapering is creating increasing uncertainty for markets.




I take your point on what's happening in the debt markets so it may or may not be the driver.


----------



## all$andnocents (13 November 2013)

Struzball said:


> Well it's moved to 5367 - then gone lower.. I believe from here it will run up to 5500 by the end of November before a long move down to 4500 by the end of 2014.  I don't have any fancy charts so would be good if others who do real analysis lined up with my outlook.
> 
> Either way, I'll change my mind when I change my mind.




How did you arrive at 4500? i guess 61.8% fib retracement would end up somewhere in the vicinity.

Can anyone comment on the wave count? i'm thinking final leg 5 but i'm a noob to this!

I guess i change my mind when the herd changes their mind


----------



## qldfrog (13 November 2013)

funny, I see something similar with a big fall 1rst quarter next year  to 4300 or so then ramp up.
just based on gut feeling and curves historical analysis, no real science; so I sell now and will buy in second quarter,
So far a good strategy after days like today...


----------



## Struzball (14 November 2013)

all$andnocents said:


> How did you arrive at 4500? i guess 61.8% fib retracement would end up somewhere in the vicinity.




Just a return to the long term trend line basically, with an ABC corrective wave.  My mspaint chart is not worthy of posting.



all$andnocents said:


> Can anyone comment on the wave count? i'm thinking final leg 5 but i'm a noob to this!
> 
> I guess i change my mind when the herd changes their mind




I'm thinking we're part way through wave 5 (since June), but I'm using EW as more of a risk/reward/expectation tool rather than trying to predict the future.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 November 2013)

XAO has broken a long term trendline, but the SPI has yet to break the 'same' line.

I reckon it will bounce up soon.  5300 lows?


----------



## CanOz (20 November 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> XAO has broken a long term trendline, but the SPI has yet to break the 'same' line.
> 
> I reckon it will bounce up soon.  5300 lows?




Sure, i've got the channel support at 5300 as well....on the SPI

I guess that was a flag on the SPI.


----------



## MrBurns (25 November 2013)

The only thing driving the US market is quantitative easing, when that ends so will the run and here as well and will mean sharp and painful falls.

So I'm inclined to get out now.....but don't really want to, it's a gamble really.

The easing is not sustainable and may end abruptly at any time, they have no choice.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 December 2013)

5270 will be the day's low, imo.  Up tomorrow.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 December 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 5270 will be the day's low, imo.  Up tomorrow.




However, REITS and banks starting to look very weak.  5270 hasn't held either.  Re-think here.


----------



## Trembling Hand (2 December 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 5270 hasn't held either.  Re-think here.




Oh? That post marks the only thing that looks like an Index buy all day!


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 December 2013)

Gee! XAO doing a good impression of a sinking ship into the close.


----------



## burglar (5 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee! XAO doing a good impression of a sinking ship into the close.



Hey TH,

Don't know why but ...
Just thought about what you posted elsewhere, earlier.



> It finally turns up and there you go you nailed it.
> 
> Randomness squeezed into a 'pattern' for the punters.


----------



## skc (5 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee! XAO doing a good impression of a sinking ship into the close.




Pretty aggressive selling on all sectors except materials...  may be there's no Santa rally this time around. 

But we are only back to where we were 10 weeks ago and it's only a 5% correction. Last time in May with taper talk and $A falling, it fell 600 points in a lot of hurry. The market is still up a good 15% this calendar year so still plenty of back padding and self congratulations amongst the fund managers.

BTW, are you coming to the Xmas party afterall?


----------



## nulla nulla (5 December 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> However, REITS and banks starting to look very weak.  5270 hasn't held either.  Re-think here.




God knows I hope this is the capitulation stage and not the start of a huge bear run. Ouch. All the normal entry points didn't just get hit, they were sold through with a vengance. Personaly I can't see the basis for the slap down of the A-REIT's. This sector did not rally with the All Ords, has been sold down with the falling Aussie dollar already and doesn't have the overgeared exposure it did before the GFC. :1zhelp:


----------



## Struzball (6 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> God knows I hope this is the capitulation stage and not the start of a huge bear run. Ouch. All the normal entry points didn't just get hit, they were sold through with a vengance. Personaly I can't see the basis for the slap down of the A-REIT's. This sector did not rally with the All Ords, has been sold down with the falling Aussie dollar already and doesn't have the overgeared exposure it did before the GFC. :1zhelp:




IMO we're nowhere near capitulation... we'll see how 4900-5000 holds..


----------



## nulla nulla (6 December 2013)

Another 10 point drop today. Not bad for a Friday. Way better than yesterdays effort.


----------



## coolcup (6 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> God knows I hope this is the capitulation stage and not the start of a huge bear run. Ouch. All the normal entry points didn't just get hit, they were sold through with a vengance. Personaly I can't see the basis for the slap down of the A-REIT's. This sector did not rally with the All Ords, has been sold down with the falling Aussie dollar already and doesn't have the overgeared exposure it did before the GFC. :1zhelp:




Perhaps fear of tapering is hitting all interest rate sensitive asset classes?


----------



## nulla nulla (6 December 2013)

coolcup said:


> Perhaps fear of tapering is hitting all interest rate sensitive asset classes?




By "fear of tappering" I'm assuming you mean fear of the withdrawal of quantative easing by the U.S Treasury. Yes I believe that the fear of tappering impacts negatively on all interest rate sensative asset classes. However, I can't understand why the impact on A-REIT's appears to be so disproportionately negative?  Most of the A-REIT's have incredibly low gearing rates. We are constantly being updated as to how they are renegotiating the forward finance on even lower interest rates. Their yields are constantly arround or above 5%. This well and truly beats bank & bond interest rates, yet the sector appears to be under seige at the moment. The volitility is becomming increasingly hard to track. Previous entry levels are becomming exit levels? Personally I don't think it bodes well for the near term future. IMO any official confirmation of tappering, could send the market into a spiral.


----------



## qldfrog (7 December 2013)

Am I the only one to believe we are well inside the start of a severe correction?
We are on the ASF forum but there is hardly any reaction to the fact the christmas rally is turning into a christmas debacle?
To state the obvious, Australia's economy is not exactly great and now we have our own debt to service.
I expect never ending negative profit adjustment releases for companies in the coming months.
More worrying,the US market has gone higher and higher with billions injected to kick the can ahead, but every new day takes us nearer to the announcement of a slow down/end of QE.
Europe is still very sick and no real light of hope in China.
Materials are weak and this is bad for the ASX too.
The DOW has probably reached its top now for a little while.
I started divesting end october and so far so good, the XAO today ended at the same level as early september and actually lower than it was in mid may so the last 6 months went nowhere.
People can argue that we had the dividends and indeed the XAOA is lightly higher now than it was in May but not by much and we had inflation.
Anyone who could change my mind and give me some bullish point short term (3 months) for the ASX?
I am definitively bearish oz equity short term, bullish local RE (as people will all rush to put their money there) with another nice bubble forming.


----------



## coolcup (7 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> By "fear of tappering" I'm assuming you mean fear of the withdrawal of quantative easing by the U.S Treasury.




Yup, spot on. Sorry for not being clear.



nulla nulla said:


> Most of the A-REIT's have incredibly low gearing rates. We are constantly being updated as to how they are renegotiating the forward finance on even lower interest rates.




This is not really why they are being sold off in my opinion. It is more to do with AREIT pricing historically having a strong correlation to long bond yields. So if the view is that long bond yields are going up (because of tapering) then the yields required from REITs also increases which pushes down prices. This, coupled with the need for capital to fund the pipeline of IPOs and the tanking AUD has pushed the REIT sector down considerably of late.



nulla nulla said:


> Their yields are constantly arround or above 5%. This well and truly beats bank & bond interest rates, yet the sector appears to be under seige at the moment.




A yield of 5% without franking credits is really not that attractive in the market compared to industrials / banks with franking credits and better earnings growth prospects.

Overall, I think it is an easy sector for instos to sell. REITs are not going to surprise people on the upside in terms of their earnings so they are a typical funding source when instos go hunting for IPO stag profits!


----------



## nulla nulla (7 December 2013)

coolcup said:


> Yup, spot on. Sorry for not being clear.!



 First I had heard of it, but then when I read other articles the last few days it was a recurring term.



coolcup said:


> This is not really why they are being sold off in my opinion. It is more to do with AREIT pricing historically having a strong correlation to long bond yields. So if the view is that long bond yields are going up (because of tapering) then the yields required from REITs also increases which pushes down prices. This, coupled with the need for capital to fund the pipeline of IPOs and the tanking AUD has pushed the REIT sector down considerably of late.!




Agreed but i consider it is more likely a combination of factors of:

1. Further foreign investors selling off Aud$ A-REIT's to buy into the US markets;
2. Selling down of A-REIT's to buy longer term bonds including Aussie Bonds; and
3. Reweighting of portfolio's to free up cash for some of the IPO's.



coolcup said:


> A yield of 5% without franking credits is really not that attractive in the market compared to industrials / banks with franking credits and better earnings growth prospects.!




Yeah but even the banks and industrials got sold down last week. 



coolcup said:


> Overall, I think it is an easy sector for instos to sell. REITs are not going to surprise people on the upside in terms of their earnings so they are a typical funding source when instos go hunting for IPO stag profits!




Risky business in the present market to expect stag profits from IPO's. From memory Veda is the only one to outperform their issue price. Stuffed if I would buy Channel Nine.


----------



## So_Cynical (8 December 2013)

Watching a few videos tonight and joining the dots etc...i think a major correction is on the cards, actually thinking about a total liquidation of my holdings, the first time i have genuinely felt that way.

There is a genuine global equity's bubble fuelled by mostly the US stimulus and also other national stimulus's, its all artificial and bull**** and there's no where else for the markets to go when its eased...the start of the stimulus withdrawal cycle will lead to a major correction.

Just no other way to see it, fact is the stimulus will be eased at some point and fact is the markets will respond by falling as capital is withdrawn...looking for a longer term short.


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## qldfrog (8 December 2013)

Fully agree: see my post  of the 6th above.a correction is needed: sure,and it will happen a certainty too;
 The issue is when?
And I believe it will happen now 9ie start 2014
I have now a grand total of 4 stocks only, covered by put options and hyybrid I keep as I would a term deposit
But I am short via options on quite a few!!!!!
so fully divested and waiting for the fall
I had hundreds in different portfolios 6 months ago.
time will tell


----------



## nulla nulla (8 December 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Watching a few videos tonight and joining the dots etc...i think a major correction is on the cards, actually thinking about a total liquidation of my holdings, the first time i have genuinely felt that way.
> 
> There is a genuine global equity's bubble fuelled by mostly the US stimulus and also other national stimulus's, its all artificial and bull**** and there's no where else for the markets to go when its eased...the start of the stimulus withdrawal cycle will lead to a major correction.
> 
> Just no other way to see it, fact is the stimulus will be eased at some point and fact is the markets will respond by falling as capital is withdrawn...looking for a longer term short.




Late May 2013 was our peak. We reduced our holdings to two shares and have traded the sideways patterns since June. Unfortunately some of the trade shares have slipped below our entry points. These are due to go ex-div this month so there is a prospect of them rallying enough for us to exit square or slightly in front. The alternative is to hold for the div and ride it out for a recovery. Problem with that option is the ex-div price fall will likely be savage and the recovery to the entry points could be a very long time coming (particularly with the prospect of tapering of quantative easing).


----------



## TPI (9 December 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Watching a few videos tonight and joining the dots etc...i think a major correction is on the cards, actually thinking about a total liquidation of my holdings, the first time i have genuinely felt that way.
> 
> There is a genuine global equity's bubble fuelled by mostly the US stimulus and also other national stimulus's, its all artificial and bull**** and there's no where else for the markets to go when its eased...the start of the stimulus withdrawal cycle will lead to a major correction.
> 
> Just no other way to see it, fact is the stimulus will be eased at some point and fact is the markets will respond by falling as capital is withdrawn...looking for a longer term short.




If the stimulus is eased won't that be because the US economy is dong better?

So any market sell-off in the context of this is just due to short-term fears rather than long-term expectations?


----------



## tech/a (9 December 2013)

TPI said:


> If the stimulus is eased won't that be because the US economy is dong better?
> 
> So any market sell-off in the context of this is just due to short-term fears rather than long-term expectations?




Damned if they do 
Damned if they don't.
It's about servicing debt.
If they don't print money they can't service debt
If they don't service debt they default.

It's got to the point now where it's not good either way
It's become a realization that continued printing of money to pay debt
Cannot continue.

So slow bleeding or hemorrhaging.
Its not limited to the US either.
Eurozone and here in Aus have similar issues.


----------



## McLovin (9 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> Damned if they do
> Damned if they don't.
> It's about servicing debt.
> If they don't print money they can't service debt
> ...






 ¿Que?


----------



## qldfrog (9 December 2013)

TPI said:


> If the stimulus is eased won't that be because the US economy is dong better?
> 
> So any market sell-off in the context of this is just due to short-term fears rather than long-term expectations?



if talking aussie shares (my focus and I assume the focus on that thread) why would the US doing better affect us significantly:
when australia was going wellrelatively and the US bad, the US market kept soaring and reached its new tops we did not.
We could very well have our own slide down for a few months even with the US doing well.
My opinion only..


----------



## RazzaDazzla (9 December 2013)

I'm not a fundamentalist, but I just don't get it. Why is the Aussie so grossly under performing other indices, especially the US?

I understand that the US indices are majority fuelled by QE, the money has to go somewhere. But why is the Aussie languishing? If it's because we haven't stimulated as much as the US, then why isn't the Aussie doing better at least in USD terms?

USA et al are printing like crazy. Aus is being conservative on the printing but both the AUD and the Aus indices are struggling. I just don't get it.


----------



## qldfrog (9 December 2013)

my view is most expect the aussie dollar to fall so foreign investors are getting out now, no good time ahead for this country: decimated manufacturing, glut of minerals arriving on the market worldwide and no advantage left except a smaller debt than some...
gloomy future, complacent population heading the way europe went (tax, social welfare, red tape); add critical lack of infrastructure and booming population by uncontrolled immigration fuelling a RE boom.
If I had  to bet, I would go US even if US are bankrupt because of the size of the debt.
you can go bankrupt and resurface, that is not something we can do unless drastic changes no one will dare doing until it get far worse
a nice share crash and then it will be worthwhile to invest in the asx again, especially with a very low AUD.Give it 3 to 5 months.We will see if I am right


----------



## tinhat (10 December 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> I'm not a fundamentalist, but I just don't get it. Why is the Aussie so grossly under performing other indices, especially the US?
> 
> I understand that the US indices are majority fuelled by QE, the money has to go somewhere. But why is the Aussie languishing? If it's because we haven't stimulated as much as the US, then why isn't the Aussie doing better at least in USD terms?
> 
> USA et al are printing like crazy. Aus is being conservative on the printing but both the AUD and the Aus indices are struggling. I just don't get it.




Have you checked out the Shanghai composite recently - like the last few years? Debt and money printing are two sides of the same coin. Australia has been running a current account deficit for thirty years now. Anyway, why the sad face? The XAO is up about 67% since 2000 and the S&P500 is only up about half that amount. Investors had several years to lock in amazing dividend yields in solid companies with franking credits on top. There are still some good yield and growth stocks presenting value.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 December 2013)

If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.


----------



## tech/a (10 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.




Yep highly likely


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yep highly likely




What would be the "thinking" for a Rally if QE does get tapered? 

Previously, good news which increases the chance of a taper has had a negative impact on markets. So why now would announcing a taper cause a rally? What's cause the flip in mindset?


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 December 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> What would be the "thinking" for a Rally if QE does get tapered?
> 
> Previously, good news which increases the chance of a taper has had a negative impact on markets. So why now would announcing a taper cause a rally? What's cause the flip in mindset?




No surprise at all. Everyone knows its happening why would it move the market now?


----------



## RazzaDazzla (10 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> No surprise at all. Everyone knows its happening why would it move the market now?




Previously talk of tapering sent the market down. So why now would talk of tapering send the market up?


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 December 2013)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Previously talk of tapering sent the market down. So why now would talk of tapering send the market up?




Really? 

The market is forward looking mostly, what is known is priced in. If it wasn't it would be **** easy to trade. As soon as the realisation came that we would be facing the slowing of QE we took a hit. That was the market pricing it in. It may have been a warm up to the real selling but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Like I said its more than likely been priced in. Its one of the basics of markets.


----------



## qldfrog (10 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.




I would disagree with the "we rally"
That the US market goes full steam, yes but that the aussie follows I seriously doubt 
if I remember well, half of the stocks on the asx are owned by foreign entities, why as a foreigneer would you keep oz shares with a decreasing aud and doomy economic news
Look on friday: great news job wise in the USand the dow jump up with talks of QE easing but matched with optimistic news for the US economy,yet we(asx) crashed a big way;
And today : market tries to go up and fizzles lamely to end up negative after reaching a +0.8% early in the morning.
If this is not a clear sign???
remember we are in the xmas rally 
I took this morning opportunity to get rid of a third of my remaining stocks...(one code )
I obviously hope I will be right: I did put my $ with my thoughts with put options which gave me a nice 4 figures paper profit yesterday.
Wait and see


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## So_Cynical (10 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Really?
> 
> *The market is forward looking mostly, what is known is priced in.* If it wasn't it would be **** easy to trade. As soon as the realisation came that we would be facing the slowing of QE we took a hit. That was the market pricing it in. It may have been a warm up to the real selling but I wouldn't bet my house on it.* Like I said its more than likely been priced in. Its one of the basics of markets.*




So how is the US market pricing in 17.1 trillion in US debt and the impossibility of servicing it? 

just curious....because i can only see the market pricing in cheap money, i think that what we have is not a "basic" market as we knew/know it...this is a market driven by Bots and running on QE fuel.


----------



## Trembling Hand (10 December 2013)

qldfrog said:


> I would disagree with the "we rally"
> That the US market goes full steam, yes but that the aussie follows I seriously doubt
> if I remember well, half of the stocks on the asx are owned by foreign entities, why as a foreigneer would you keep oz shares with a decreasing aud and doomy economic news
> Look on friday: great news job wise in the USand the dow jump up with talks of QE easing but matched with optimistic news for the US economy,yet we(asx) crashed a big way;
> ...



Nah mate you got me wrong. I posted last week that we look to be playing a new game of falls when GB was getting all bullish. I see what we are doing. I also posted the week before the divergence in the broader market while the indexes hide stuff. But what I said is once it _actually _is announced EXACTLY what the fed is going to do where ever the market is I doubt by then we will fall off the cliff. 

My market feed is full of,


> Fed's Fisher backs taper at earl...





> Fed's Bullard: Probability of taper has increased





> Fed's Plosser: Time to 'gracefully exit' QE3



These are coming on the wires every few hours for the last month. They are flagging it.




So_Cynical said:


> So how is the US market pricing in 17.1 trillion in US debt and the impossibility of servicing it?
> 
> just curious....because i can only see the market pricing in cheap money, i think that what we have is not a "basic" market as we knew/know it...this is a market driven by Bots and running on QE fuel.




You do know that the so called "bots" are dying a fast death? Been in decline all this year.

I'm not talking a rally 2003 to 2007 style, I'm just saying a wrong footed rally to surprise the slow once we know what they are actually going to do.


----------



## qldfrog (10 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> ....
> I'm not talking a rally 2003 to 2007 style, I'm just saying a wrong footed rally to surprise the slow once we know what they are actually going to do.



I agree and I will get back full speed but I expect to see the market crashing between now and then ->let's say 1rst quarter 2014 when the QE end will have been announced and the news swallowed and of course when shares will have a bit more value than the extended figures we are at.
I would not buy anything before..and I do not


----------



## tech/a (10 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> Yep highly likely




*But then if we take a purely technical view* it is possible that the market
in all three indexes is testing highs as we can see in the three charts here.
Personally I think it will take a great deal of positive SUSTAINED sentiment to
push into a stronger bull market of any resilience.

While it is likely that we have a smallish bull move I think it more likely we will have more of the same with a longer term bearish bias.
technically there is little to look forward to on the long side.


----------



## PinguPingu (11 December 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> So how is the US market pricing in 17.1 trillion in US debt and the impossibility of servicing it?






The United States Military and the Petrodollar


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## Trembling Hand (19 December 2013)

Gee taper and more guidance on rates outlook announced and I see a lot of green on my screen. Who woulda thought!


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## nulla nulla (19 December 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> If you are worried about the easing of QE don't be surprised to find that we rally when it does happen. Especially if they just knock it back a little this month and say we are going "Slow and Steady". We will get a Rally-o-rama.




Good call. Announcement that quantative easing would be tapered from us$85 million per month to us$75million per month gave certainty to the market an the instant reaction was confidence.


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## tech/a (19 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Good call. Announcement that quantative easing would be tapered from us$85 million per month to us$75million per month gave certainty to the market an the instant reaction was confidence.




And don't be surprised if the market comes to it senses
And started selling off again.
Slower bleeding to death seems more palatable.


----------



## notting (19 December 2013)

Powder off the table in anticipation of tapering.(weakness in anticipation)
Event - Tapering hardly anything and remains 'data dependent.'
In other words, it could stay at 75B if we want it to (doubt it, market expects 10k per month) and we cover called that with extended low interest rates.
Quick, put the powder back in that's a no taper!

Now we watch the bond markets.
If the 10 year sells off to give around 3% US stocks are not attractive!


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## nulla nulla (19 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> And don't be surprised if the market comes to it senses
> And started selling off again.




Most re-actions are part knee jerk and over the top, so I would expect some innitial settling. Whether/when the Dow will come to its senses after running hard for four years on smoke and mirrors is impossible to predict. Better to trade the volitility than buy and hold, imo.



tech/a said:


> Slower bleeding to death seems more palatable.




A lot are probably already doing this in Australia since the all ords retraced from 5400. Holding and hoping and trying not to look at the spectre of the US trillion dollar debt hanging over global markets. Convincing themselves "Its just a temporary retrace, a minor correction.....right?"


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## nulla nulla (19 December 2013)

If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.


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## Trembling Hand (19 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.




why?


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## skc (19 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.




SPI expiry today... early match prices meant naught.


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## PinguPingu (19 December 2013)

Was expecting more of a fade, guess one of these days the poor XAO needs to hold on to some decent gainz.


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## nulla nulla (19 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.




Showing a 5% drop in a fair few shares around 9:00am, improved by 9:30am and pretty much at par with yesterdays close at opening time.



Trembling Hand said:


> why?




If the early indicative opening prices were reliable there would have been a sell down. Only reason I could think of for a sell down was big fund managers reallocating their funds out of the all ords. Has been going on for a while now relative to the aud$ v's the us$, particularly noticeable in the A-REIT sector.



skc said:


> SPI expiry today... early match prices meant naught.




True, particularly when there is a flurry of action in the opening bids immediately before open.


----------



## coolcup (19 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Good call. Announcement that quantative easing would be tapered from us$85 million per month to us$75million per month gave certainty to the market an the instant reaction was confidence.




Million or billion? *puts little finger towards mouth*



nulla nulla said:


> If the early indicative opening prices are anything to go by, there could be a bit of foreign investment money pulled out of Australian equities today.




Match prices at 9am are irrelevant.


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## nulla nulla (20 December 2013)

coolcup said:


> Million or billion? *puts little finger towards mouth*.





Sorry Austin, probably a senior moment, should read billion.




coolcup said:


> Match prices at 9am are irrelevant.




Worth looking at in conjunction with depth volume. Gives an idea of what is being dumped before the pro's close the gap. Taken some very quick day trades from time to time watching the lead up to open.


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## notting (20 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Gives an idea of what is being dumped before the pro's close the gap. Taken some very quick day trades from time to time watching the lead up to open.




Pros are still asleep at 9 am.  
They wake up at about 2pm when all the testosterone trading has well and truly finished, look back to the openings, see the corrective sanity balancing come back in from 11:30 till 2:30,  then assess and trade the close. 
Morning action is irrelevant until it's in the rear vision mirror.


----------



## skc (20 December 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> Worth looking at in conjunction with depth volume. Gives an idea of what is being dumped before the pro's close the gap. Taken some very quick day trades from time to time watching the lead up to open.




It was index option expiry yesterday! The match up price changes from all red to all gree back to all red with +/- 5-10% all the time.

It's not worth looking at what so ever.


----------



## skyQuake (20 December 2013)

skc said:


> It was index option expiry yesterday! The match up price changes from all red to all gree back to all red with +/- 5-10% all the time.
> 
> It's not worth looking at what so ever.




Except the once a decade or so event where someone stuffs up


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## nulla nulla (15 January 2014)

It looks like all the fund managers and brokers came back from holidays on Monday. At the 9:00am meeting the bosses must have delivered the "Its the 13th of the month and our revenue is zero" speech followed by the "Get on the phone and make it happen" speech. Yesterday they sold off the banks and mining, probably turned over enough buy/sells to kick start the client billings for the year. Nah, wouldn't happen would it....?


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## qldfrog (16 January 2014)

am I the only one seeing the situation as surreal???
as I see it, the situation now is as crappy as during the GST, nothing fixed...
But the US with the massive injection seems economically a bit better.So fair for them to have a share market booming:
after all, their earning might justify the values
But here, jobs are falling everywhere INCLUDING the ones never listed, the PM/BA and other consultancy workers
These positions never record in any statistics they will never join centerlink but the money they do not get will not be taxed nor spent and make the economy run.
Is it just because I am in QLD and see the effect of the mining crash in first place????
So how can the ASX with already strech valuation even pretend to follow a bit the US?
It sghould have done it earlier when the mining boom was a boom, but not now.
I know TD are not returning much but so far, you get your investment back; I would not put it in the share market now
Anyway, just a rant after a long day


----------



## beachlife (17 January 2014)

all true, but the compulsory super that the govt says is better managed by the funds has to be put somewhere while we wait for the next crash.


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## nulla nulla (17 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> all true, but the compulsory super that the govt says is better managed by the funds has to be put somewhere while we wait for the next crash.




....and it has to be turned over a few times to generate fees/income for the compulsory fund managers.


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## qldfrog (21 January 2014)

and now
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/weak-sunbeam-appliance-sales-hurt-gud-as-profit-falls-31-20140121-3168r.html
after the crash of SUP (I might miss the codeL supercheap auto etc)
is that the sign of an healthy econony or one trending up???
and today asx is up


----------



## tinhat (21 January 2014)

qldfrog said:


> and now
> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/weak-sunbeam-appliance-sales-hurt-gud-as-profit-falls-31-20140121-3168r.html
> after the crash of SUP (I might miss the codeL supercheap auto etc)
> is that the sign of an healthy econony or one trending up???
> and today asx is up




GUD is not a good bellwether of the state of the consumer economy. It does highlight some of the issues facing consumer goods makers and importers/distributors though. 

One being cheap Chinese generic goods are eroding brand value. Do you know what make of oil filter your mechanic uses in your car? Do you care? Supercheap Auto distribute Ryco filters almost exclusively by the way (Ryco is a GUD brand) but I imagine that retail sales make up a tiny proportion of the market.

Another being that the two big retailers are squeezing and eroding the margin and value of independent brands.

GUD has a poor portfolio of consumer brands. Look at the Oats brand. What major point of differentiation is there in an Oats branded broom or bucket as opposed to any other broom or bucket you might buy from Big W or Bunnings. When you shop at Bunnings do you even care or notice what the brand name is of the mop or broom you are buying. Their brands are of little value.

Same with Dexion. Any Chinese manufacturer can knock off and knock out pallet racking shelving. There is little value to the "Dexion" brand and in fact it has become a generic term for a type of pallet racking.

Sunbeam is the only consumer brand in the GUD stable that is probably worth anything as a brand yet GUD concede that they have dropped the ball in terms of product development and keeping current with consumer requirements. Look at the brands that are doing well in kitchen appliances. Kenwood mixers cost a fortune. Nespressos are converting instant coffee drinkers in droves, and private school mums are flocking to the Thermomix cult forking out $2,000 a pop for a German made blender. GUD tried to take over Breville but the ACCC stopped it. Thank goodness for Breville.

GUD has been a bit of a dud business with poor quality brands that has not been well managed. Retail and consumer goods has been with its challenges over the years but some other companies have done well (with some setbacks) over the past few years including SUL, RCG, BRV and even JBH has made a come-back.


----------



## qldfrog (21 January 2014)

tinhat said:


> ...
> 
> GUD has been a bit of a dud business with poor quality brands that has not been well managed. Retail and consumer goods has been with its challenges over the years but some other companies have done well (with some setbacks) over the past few years including SUL, RCG, BRV and even JBH has made a come-back.



so you believe your last mentioned codes [SUL being the one I wanted to mention initially and had disappointed result a few days ago], will meet earning expectation????
I seriously doubt it!!!
time will  say but I see that as a telltale sign
 the banks might make nice  profits as every dog and his cat  is taking   a loan for an IP, but what else???


----------



## tinhat (21 January 2014)

tinhat said:


> GUD is not a good bellwether of the state of the consumer economy. ...some other companies have done well (with some setbacks) over the past few years including SUL, RCG, BRV and even JBH has made a come-back.






qldfrog said:


> so you believe your last mentioned codes [SUL being the one I wanted to mention initially and had disappointed result a few days ago], will meet earning expectation????
> I seriously doubt it!!!
> time will  say but I see that as a telltale sign
> the banks might make nice  profits as every dog and his cat  is taking   a loan for an IP, but what else???




qldfrog, I don't know. I don't hold shares in any of the company's I mentioned. I do regret selling out of my RCG shares too early though and they went upwards and onwards. I had SUL on my watchlist a few years ago but I took my eye off it and it got away from me. I haven't analysed any of these businesses in detail and I don't have an opinion on whether SUL will meet earnings guidance. I did go to a Supercheap Auto store the other day to buy a Ryco fuel filter (ironically) and I did not that compared to say Repco the service was pretty non-existent.


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## qldfrog (21 January 2014)

one point I need to note, I am not a long term investor when mentioning this for me a 20% fall would ideally be a sell at top then buy at bottom.
I do not do buy and hold.
All this just to say that a pretty solid company might still be on my sell list if I expect the market to fall, and I am ready to buy some dud when I expect the market to rise;
I bought some NCM at 7ish when they fell but have no long term trust in their future.
I see an economy feeling sick here at least in qld with no sign of acknowledgement anywhere so my  when the asx goes up.


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## Valued (26 January 2014)

The news right now seems to be very bullish. The Motley Fools is still preaching about ASX6000 and that this is just a minor pause and the bull movement is still strong. 

The price action looks weak to me. It looks like the XAO is at the very least ranging (and it looks like if it is ranging it's reached the top of the range and swinging down). At worst it's signifying the end of a trend. The prior higher low has been taken out and it's fell short of a new high. If this were a stock you probably wouldn't be jumping on to go long here.

I am at least short term bearish (next week or two) on the XAO and I am trying to get out of the habit of shorting and going long stocks in the same index. I don't think this makes sense. I have only two long trades in the ASX right now and I am out if they don't open higher. I really don't want anything to do with long positions right now. Of course I am putting my money where my mouth is and taking out shorts. If I think going long is wrong, going short must be right. We get the advantage of seeing the US trade first though, yay for long weekends.


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## qldfrog (4 February 2014)

At least, two people should be happy today:
 after the last two sessions falls in the US,both Valued should be paper richer tonight on our shorts.
 I really see this as the start of the correction we need to have  and a 10% correction (not that severe) should bring the XAO to 4700 or so.
Let's see.


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## nulla nulla (6 February 2014)

The recent high is lower than the previous high, are we heading for a lower low?




Or will it taper into a pennant?


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## malagets (6 February 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> The recent high is lower than the previous high, are we heading for a lower low?
> 
> View attachment 56693
> 
> ...




We are headed for a lower low and we will test the GFC low 
again in the years ahead. Up move of the last 5 years has .been a correction of the larger trend which is down. 
Same thing happened in the Dow post the crash of 29, the Nasdaq crash of 2000, the Nikkei 225 crash of 1990, and the Shanghai Composite Index now. 

Cheersl


----------



## Logique (6 February 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> The recent high is lower than the previous high, are we heading for a lower low?
> View attachment 56693
> 
> Or will it taper into a pennant?



I'm wondering about this too. The medium term isn't flash technically, but I'm not as bearish as Malagets, it can still reverse in the near term.


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## db94 (6 February 2014)

if it does make a lower low itll be around 5000 (psychological and trend support). If it breaks this level the next support is around 4600, which is worrisome
also cant see it forming a pennant considering it broke through the short-medium term trend support. It would have needed to bounce at 5200 IMO


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## clayton4115 (8 February 2014)

what do you make of last nights rally on the US market, has rallied well over the past two sessions, just a mini rally before the continuation of a major decline or the uptrend still strongly intact?

I think we are looking at some sort of a correction coming up.


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## ThingyMajiggy (11 February 2014)

Did the market open late today?? Showing it opened an hour later than usual on my charts.


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## skc (11 February 2014)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Did the market open late today?? Showing it opened an hour later than usual on my charts.




No it opened on time as per usual. There's some problem with data on Iress this morning but I am not sure whether that's related to ASX or not.


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## ThingyMajiggy (11 February 2014)

skc said:


> No it opened on time as per usual. There's some problem with data on Iress this morning but I am not sure whether that's related to ASX or not.




Yeah something is up with my esignal data, maybe they were watching the olympics and forgot to boot up this morning.


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## Valued (11 February 2014)

@qldfrog

Just saw this now. I actually didn't short as much as I was going to on the ASX since I decided to short the US markets instead. In hindsight I could have shorted both but I am at work during the day so US markets can be easier if I don't want to sleep. Since I was using proper risk management it didn't exactly make me rich haha but I had a large and fast draw down at the start of the year and I gained it all back plus a bit extra in just a few days. I shorted the S&P before the biggest down day and then went long on the bottom and caught the up move. I also had some stock positions too.

It's good to be back in the black for this year.


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## skc (11 February 2014)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah something is up with my esignal data, maybe they were watching the olympics and forgot to boot up this morning.




The message on Iress is coming through to say it's an ASX issue. I am aware that Spark and eSignal are both affected... and probably others.


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## VSntchr (11 February 2014)

Yep, my yahoo feed was delayed an hour too.


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## skc (11 February 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Yep, my yahoo feed was delayed an hour too.




To the Pairs finder... but that happens a lot. It's like the guy who switch on the data likes to sleep in 3 times a month...


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## qldfrog (11 February 2014)

Valued said:


> @qldfrog
> 
> Just saw this now. I actually didn't short as much as I was going to on the ASX since I decided to short the US markets instead. In hindsight I could have shorted both but I am at work during the day so US markets can be easier if I don't want to sleep. Since I was using proper risk management it didn't exactly make me rich haha but I had a large and fast draw down at the start of the year and I gained it all back plus a bit extra in just a few days. I shorted the S&P before the biggest down day and then went long on the bottom and caught the up move. I also had some stock positions too.
> 
> It's good to be back in the black for this year.



sadly I went to black and now back to red after last week two great jumps (on horrendous data in the us but discounted as it was winter.....with asx following) but I have learnt not to try to make sense of the market movements: market is always right..so right now now I have lost..Still would not bet much on a real bull and still waiting for a nice drawback in the coming months
 will see


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## skc (11 February 2014)

skc said:


> The message on Iress is coming through to say it's an ASX issue. I am aware that Spark and eSignal are both affected... and probably others.




ASX introduces new afternoon tea break...

Actually it's a technical glitch. Oh well. I am getting a coffee anyway.


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## clayton4115 (11 February 2014)

i was wondering what was going on !


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## tinhat (11 February 2014)

This conversation has me thinking that to operate as an effective and efficient marketplace the ASX would only need to hold two auctions say twice a day; once in the morning and again in the afternoon. That's one auction too many per day already. Of course, less brokerage and fees but I can't think of any rational reason why one or two auctions per day wouldn't be just as effective at establishing price than anything else.


----------



## skyQuake (12 February 2014)

tinhat said:


> This conversation has me thinking that to operate as an effective and efficient marketplace the ASX would only need to hold two auctions say twice a day; once in the morning and again in the afternoon. That's one auction too many per day already. Of course, less brokerage and fees but I can't think of any rational reason why one or two auctions per day wouldn't be just as effective at establishing price than anything else.




There's already midday and 2pm Auctions:

https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...vices/documents/communications/asx_035733.pdf


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## cynic (12 February 2014)

skyQuake said:


> There's already midday and 2pm Auctions:
> 
> https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-...vices/documents/communications/asx_035733.pdf




That would seem to make sense. Would I be correct in surmising that the midday auction is the close of the morning session and that the 2PM is the open of the afternoon?


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## Trembling Hand (14 February 2014)

malagets said:


> We are headed for a lower low and we will test the GFC low
> again in the years ahead. Up move of the last 5 years has .been a correction of the larger trend which is down.
> Same thing happened in the Dow post the crash of 29, the Nasdaq crash of 2000, the Nikkei 225 crash of 1990, and the Shanghai Composite Index now.
> 
> Cheersl





Its like every time someone says we are going down to the GFC lows the market explodes higher. Face it bears your wet dream has come and gone and all you guys are left with is Shouldas, couldas and of course wet sheets...


----------



## clayton4115 (14 February 2014)

No reason to buy the dip 


http://www.morningstar.com.au/technicalanalysis.mvc/article/no-reason-to-buy-the-dip/6352/1


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## qldfrog (14 February 2014)

Hi Th, 
we will see again in 3 months (june)  if your gains since october 13 are so good, my cash returns a pitiful 4% at the banks, but very happy to have disengage late last year.
I might be wrong but I keep sleeping.
and I do not risk  much.
My short options might cost me a bit but I can write them off with no issue.
If I win, I will be really well off, and I still put some money on things like telstra, wpl while protecting them with put option,
There is no way I would go long any further in the current circumstances


----------



## Porper (14 February 2014)

qldfrog said:


> Hi Th,
> we will see again in 3 months (june)  if your gains since october 13 are so good, my cash returns a pitiful 4% at the banks, but very happy to have disengage late last year.




There are many traders and investors that agree with you qldfrog and think a massive downturn is imminent. But most have been Bearish for years and just wont accept that this market can keep tracking higher. It can...and it is. If the doom and gloom brigade are correct then having money in any bank will be extremely risky anyway so not too much protection there.

The old argument from the bears suggesting Gold can only go up during a stock market panic simply doesn't have any substance. Gold could very well follow the market higher from here as it has in the past.


----------



## clayton4115 (14 February 2014)

i think i have to agree with qldfrog, i too am quite bearish and the US market in particular is ripe for a massive correction. I have alot of short positions open at the moment, i am taking a bit of a hit but i have to ride it out i suppose.


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## Trembling Hand (15 February 2014)

qldfrog said:


> Hi Th,
> we will see again in 3 months (june)  if your gains since october 13 are so good,




They are not my gains, they are simply the way the market has been acting. Every next event has supposedly been the bears next big event where we will all we see sanity return to the world. I got dumped on saying that the tapper would cause a rally. How did that turn out for the bears again? 

I guess you guys still have the hope of a lower high here. :robot2:


----------



## qldfrog (15 February 2014)

Hi TH,
I just took a bit of an exception to the "Face it bears your wet dream has come and gone an.."
we both have been here for a while, I am a bear but not always have.
I believe being bear now especially in Australia is a perfectly sane attitude, even after this crazy( for me )week, we are still 200pts below the XAO highs of late last year, I have seen no results justifying the current valuations, real unemployment is scary and when I work in the city: offices are empty while suburban industrial areas are full of for sales/for lease.30% as a count of hand 
I am in Brisbane and that is maybe why I have such a doom/gloom view, it could be the situation is different in Melbourne /sydney;
I do know in Brisbane at least, this is the hardest it has been for a long while worse than during the GFC in my opinion...
so my feelings..
I wish for you  you are right but I am not alone to be gloomy :while shares are going up, gold and bonds are going up as well.
In my teaching book, it can /should not be so, so something will have to give...
No personal attack intented BTW
Cheers


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## clayton4115 (15 February 2014)

gold and silver going up, maybe a precursor of things to come?


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## Porper (16 February 2014)

clayton4115 said:


> gold and silver going up, maybe a precursor of things to come?




Not sure why people think Gold rallying means equity markets going down heavily. Maybe this chart will help. Draw your own conclusions.


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## Porper (16 February 2014)

Here is something for the Bears to keep their hopes up...courtesy of Marketwatch


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 February 2014)

Porper said:


> Here is something for the Bears to keep their hopes up...courtesy of Marketwatch




Thanks Porper. 

A good post, so good that I did a google search on "Absurd Charts" and the full article from which you took your graph was top.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/02/that-viral-chart-predicting-another-1929-stock-market-crash-its-absurd/283762/








> Exhibit A: The chart above that's been making the rounds again. It shows how the stock market today looks””dun, dun, dun””just like it did in 1929. Hurry up and invest with the geniuses who first identified this spooky pattern before it's too late!
> 
> Except don't. Please don't. Double y-axes have their time and place, but too often they're the first, last, and only refuge of charlatans and cranks. That's because you can use them to make almost anything look like a pattern.
> 
> ...




Enclosed is a chart corrected for those pointy headed things with which statisticians bore beautiful women.




gg


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## Valued (16 February 2014)

I indicated I was short term bearish and I was correct. Since then the market has bounced back. All indications seem to be that the market is bullish. Now it may be that the S&P 500 fails to make its new high or does make it but ends up coming down quickly and this in turn effects the XAO but I do not think it's the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario I think is that the S&P 500 makes its new high and continues to rise and the XAO/XJO follow. 

This seems silly. It seems like I have said "the market could go up or down, but up is more likely" which is pretty much what anyone says at any one time. However, the important part is that the turning point is very near. We get to see how the market reacts next week. We should either see it find resistance or go through to make a new high very soon. You would expect this to happen early next week. We get to see how the market acts and reacts when it does make the new high (we are looking for it to find support at old resistance). Since it's so near, I am going to stay out of the market until I see what it does. 

There are a few ways the market can go at this point. I expect we will see very bullish or very bearish with bullish more likely. If we see a small trading range I would say that's going to be weakness but it doesn't mean the market is ready to move down right away. 

Of course, do your own research as my opinions are my own. I have deliberately omitted technical reasons for my opinions (especially since I could be wrong!).


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## beachlife (16 February 2014)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks Porper.
> 
> A good post, so good that I did a google search on "Absurd Charts" and the full article from which you took your graph was top.
> 
> ...




True for the y axis but the x axis still quite accurately correlates the timing of highs and lows, and the duration of the moves.  Long move down on the way soon


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## nulla nulla (18 February 2014)

the recent highs were getting lower and the recent lows were getting lower also. However for the last week the recent trend has reversed and popped back above the upper downward channel bar. 




While the latest Unemployment figures hit 6% this appears to be within or slightly less than was expected. The new car sales figures out this week were also down on the xmas/new year period but there weren't as many sales and the malarkey about Holden and Toyota future production closures (adding to the Ford issues) doesn't help. However the market appears to be taking this in it's stride. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see the All Ords move above the recent high of 28 October 2013. Particularly now there is some certainty & confidence coming back into the global markets. Quantative Easing is definitely being scaled back, the European community is settling down and China hasn't collapsed. To me the two year chart suggest the All Ords should continue to track more upward and sideways.


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## pavilion103 (18 February 2014)

Doesn't look quite as bearish as before.
Interesting that I'm getting a few more setups appearing in Aussie stocks too.


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## Valued (18 February 2014)

My general outlook now has turned to very bullish The problem with the XAO is that the very big stocks I have been looking at that are leaders in their sectors (stocks like CBA, CPU, IRE, TLS, RHC, PPT etc) don't look ready to make big moves just yet. They may be in the future but they arn't looking at exceptionally bullish to the point of moving right now. The other big banks are not faring as well as CBA overall when you compare them to sector and market performance. They also don't look ready to move right now.

With the US markets very big US stocks look ready to move higher very soon. I suspect the XAO will lag behind them. If it's the start of a large uptrend into new highs for the S&P, the performance should roll over to the medium cap stocks and to overseas markets.


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2014)

I would place my  on a churn to nowhere. That would actually be the best thing here for the Bulls. Work off a little steam then a cracking breakout.


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## nulla nulla (19 February 2014)

The price action tomorrow with options settlements will be interesting.


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> The price action tomorrow with options settlements will be interesting.




Why is that?


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## cutz (19 February 2014)

It's just the XJOs expiring tomorrow, nothing interesting ever happens on the day, although it is interesting how the index has rallied to the call open interest over the past week and a bit, coincidental perhaps......


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## nulla nulla (22 February 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Why is that?




With the current euphoria pushing the all ords higher, I was looking for some equities price spikes driven by settlements (which has happened in the past) however it didn't happen. There were some price jumps on open (Thursday) but they may have been driven by the release of annual reports. Unfortunately most of them faded through the day.



cutz said:


> It's just the XJOs expiring tomorrow, nothing interesting ever happens on the day, although it is interesting how the index has rallied to the call open interest over the past week and a bit, coincidental perhaps......




Certainly not lately. I wonder if this isn't a reflection of the number of people trading options these days compared with the past?


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## Tyler Durden (5 March 2014)

Am I the only one who read the title "Shares close highest since June 2008" at SMH and felt a shiver run down my back?


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## satanoperca (6 March 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Am I the only one who read the title "Shares close highest since June 2008" at SMH and felt a shiver run down my back?




Like most things in the investment world, logic doesn't apply. 

If the share market is doing so well, why do we have historically low IR's?

Can we apply inflation to the XAO index ? So we need another 10% in real terms for it to reach s high above 2008? Maybe that answets my first question.

Cheers. Inflation in Shanghai seems to be flying with a beer costing me $12 Au.


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## nulla nulla (6 March 2014)

satanoperca said:


> ......Cheers. Inflation in Shanghai seems to be flying with a beer costing me $12 Au.




Nah, they just saw you coming. "foreign devil, charge him double".


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## Trembling Hand (6 March 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> felt a shiver run down my back?




Why? What is the concern?


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## CanOz (6 March 2014)

satanoperca said:


> Cheers. Inflation in Shanghai seems to be flying with a beer costing me $12 Au.




Where was that? What brand of beer?

At big bamboo a large pint size carlsberg should be about 40 rmb....


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## Wysiwyg (17 March 2014)

Anyone guessing below 5000 again?


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## Wysiwyg (11 April 2014)

Interesting to see if buyers are willing to risk the weekend hold leading to market close today.


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## nulla nulla (11 April 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Interesting to see if buyers are willing to risk the weekend hold leading to market close today.




When trading opened today we were holding two (2) parcels of shares in GPT. The first was sold in the open for $3.85 realising a capital gain of 1.13% and the second parcel sold when GPT hit $3.88 also realising a capital gain of 1.13%. 

We are out of the market now, at 100% cash. Mrs Nulla reckons there is going to be a major correction and has decreed we will sit it out for now or limit our trades to day trading small parcels. Might even go see a movie or two next week.


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## PinguPingu (23 April 2014)

Still of that view, Nulla Nulla? 

Right at some very stiff resistance. Dollar has come off a bit from its latest run up..solid US rebound...who knows maybe we can finally break out of 5500


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## Tyler Durden (23 April 2014)

I think the market is building up for a huge "sell in May, go away" drop. Happy to be proven wrong in a month's time.


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## nulla nulla (24 April 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> When trading opened today we were holding two (2) parcels of shares in GPT. The first was sold in the open for $3.85 realising a capital gain of 1.13% and the second parcel sold when GPT hit $3.88 also realising a capital gain of 1.13%.
> 
> We are out of the market now, at 100% cash. Mrs Nulla reckons there is going to be a major correction and has decreed we will sit it out for now or limit our trades to day trading small parcels. Might even go see a movie or two next week.




The executive committee (Mrs Nulla) has not changed her perspective. We are at cash but watching daily prices for any one day trade opportunities. 




PinguPingu said:


> Still of that view, Nulla Nulla?
> 
> Right at some very stiff resistance. Dollar has come off a bit from its latest run up..solid US rebound...who knows maybe we can finally break out of 5500




Yes 




Tyler Durden said:


> I think the market is building up for a huge "sell in May, go away" drop. Happy to be proven wrong in a month's time.




We agree, a possible run up (spike) in the next week or so, followed by a sell down in May as the sheep apply the "In May, stay away" principle. Looking for re-entry in June for possible capital gain & dividend opportunities.


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## skc (15 September 2014)

skc said:


> A high of *5680 *achieved in the first half, followed by a downdraft and finishing the year at 5180.




High = 5672, although timing on the call is a bit off.




There's a distinct weakness in the market, even though the index is only down ~3% and yet to breach the early Aug low. 

Yield stocks have driven the rally since mid 2012. With now $Aud falling and bond yields rising sharply it makes sense for the market yield to expand meaningfully. XPJ (property index) is down ~6.5% already, and the big 4s have also underperformed. With iron ore lingering at the bottom, it'd be a big ask for the big resources to lift the market. 

Let's see how close the 2nd half of my random prediction will be.


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## dlineinvestor (15 September 2014)

George Soros is short to the tune of 2.2 billion dollars notational value, bull runs have historically been around 66 months long and now we are in our 67th but we are breaking down in it.


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## Wysiwyg (17 September 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> George Soros is short to the tune of 2.2 billion dollars notational value, bull runs have historically been around 66 months long and now we are in our 67th but we are breaking down in it.



**** he must have got carved up with the market reversing up significantly? 

? To anyone. Any reasons for the decoupling of ASX with American market since start of September?


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## Trembling Hand (17 September 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> ? To anyone. Any reasons for the decoupling of ASX with American market since start of September?




In the golden days it was all just one big trade (7 to 2 years ago) - the risk on/risk off game. Just about the time the term became well known it started break down. Short term correlations are way out of whack when taking any snapshot.


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## Wysiwyg (18 September 2014)

Green lights popping up at the moment. The dump receding?





Trembling Hand said:


> the risk on/risk off game.



That American market appetite is insatiable.


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## Wysiwyg (7 October 2014)

Majority not interested in holding at this juncture?


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## Trembling Hand (7 October 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Majority not interested in holding at this juncture?




No love for the Financials.


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## Wysiwyg (7 October 2014)

Simon says, panic attack. Disappointing for me as I saw downtrend lines broken but it was only the goal posts being moved.


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## skc (7 October 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Simon says, panic attack. Disappointing for me as I saw downtrend lines broken but it was only the goal posts being moved.




Haven't seen action like that for some time. 100pts reversal out of nowhere really. I thought the RIO new would have provided some upside to the market. I thought we have found a short term base for the time, but instead we broken lower in quite a hurry. There's still a chance we'd hold last week's low on a daily close basis... but that was some selling velocity this morning.


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## Trembling Hand (7 October 2014)

skc said:


> Haven't seen action like that for some time. 100pts reversal out of nowhere really. I thought the RIO new would have provided some upside to the market. I thought we have found a short term base for the time, but instead we broken lower in quite a hurry. There's still a chance we'd hold last week's low on a daily close basis... but that was some selling velocity this morning.




Looks like good old fashion hot money fleeing off-shore. Like the good old days (07) when the Aussie $ cracked the sharemarket followed because the OS funds priced not in AUD were getting spanked on both ends. Which leads to more AUD falls and the need for more fund liquidation. Can get nasty.


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## skc (7 October 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks like good old fashion hot money fleeing off-shore. Like the good old days (07) when the Aussie $ cracked the sharemarket followed because the OS funds priced not in AUD were getting spanked on both ends. Which leads to more AUD falls and the need for more fund liquidation. Can get nasty.




Yes... then local bargain hunters step back in and pushes it back up 80 points from the low.

My day's P&L yo-yo'd like the market did even though I had no directional bias. 

I hope we will see more days like these.


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## nulla nulla (7 October 2014)

It occurred to me that the big players had yesterday off. Volumes were down and some prices managed to sneak up a few cents lifting the All-ords.

Today they are back on deck and it looks to me like they decided to start a sell down and flush out some of yesterdays retail buyers, selling quickly through the retail buyers trailing stops. Then when the prices were low enough the big players started accumulating, letting prices recover slowly as they controlled the volume weighted average prices. Quick money to catch up the day off.


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## PinguPingu (10 October 2014)

Ooof down almost 2% at one point this morning, bring on the pain train.


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## Trembling Hand (13 October 2014)

SFE exchange is broken. ASX might be lucky and go nowhere until its fixed.


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## skc (13 October 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> SFE exchange is broken. ASX might be lucky and go nowhere until its fixed.




Actually thought the ASX held up remarkably well this morning... we could be down another 2% easily.

I have a SPI feed and chart on my screen that I glance at regularly. Without it running it definitely feels wrong...


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## Wysiwyg (13 October 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> SFE exchange is broken. ASX might be lucky and go nowhere until its fixed.



If this gaps and people lose money due to no data feed and no execution capability, compensation should be awarded.


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## skc (13 October 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> If this gaps and people lose money due to no data feed and no execution capability, compensation should be awarded.




Only if you promise to give the profits back if it gaps in your favour


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## Wysiwyg (13 October 2014)

skc said:


> Only if you promise to give the profits back if it gaps in your favour




G'day. Do you recall what high to low figures you quoted? Was it 5080 low?


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## skc (13 October 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> G'day. Do you recall what high to low figures you quoted? Was it 5080 low?




You meant this guess?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=17461&page=57&p=840777&viewfull=1#post840777

Year end target is 5180 but that's not a prediction of the low. The low could well overshoot that number before a 200pt Santa rally. 

The SPI reopened at roughly the same level... everyone is happy I suppose...


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## Wysiwyg (13 October 2014)

Thank you

I'm getting SPI data but CFD broker not passing it on.


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## nekminit (13 October 2014)

Don't you hate it when you open a position on the asx 200 going short at 5594.83 leaving the trade at 5374.32 and checking out the price now, i think asx will drop below 5000 in the next 10 days.


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## PinguPingu (14 October 2014)

Relief rally before heading down further? (Iron ore and commodity bounce as well)


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## dlineinvestor (14 October 2014)

Hi Guys, 
Trading a long but sold WAY ...  too soon out at 5170 .... have I been the only one caught off guard with this surge ?
Hate leaving so much on the table. As far as what's accountable iron ore up 4% from yesterday. Funds piling into miners.
Anything I've missed  ? Good shorting opportunity now if it's the high. We are back in resistance areas
Cheers


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## dlineinvestor (14 October 2014)

nekminit said:


> Don't you hate it when you open a position on the asx 200 going short at 5594.83 leaving the trade at 5374.32 and checking out the price now, i think asx will drop below 5000 in the next 10 days.




That was 221 pt gain ! Staying in that trade for 2 weeks was a good trading.
I've heard "you can never do the right thing in trading : Either you sell too soon, sell too late, buy too small buy too big the list goes on ... but a think a "well done is deserved here .... 
Today's run up would be another nice opp if you think the market is to run down to 5000. I'm in at 5208 shrt


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## pavilion103 (14 October 2014)

Was tossing up 5190 at the end of the day. 

Pushed up to test the low of the little base formed in the past week. Not sure if we will see a re-test again.

Definitely the types of days to be looking to find a good short for a hold.


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## PinguPingu (15 October 2014)

Another decent up day with big yeilders rising, but looks like good resistance up at 5300-5350. I think if we remain below it this week, its down to 5100-5000 towards end of the month. But I know if I took the short it'll spike back up the other way, I didn't, so we'll go down. :


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## dlineinvestor (15 October 2014)

PinguPingu said:


> Another decent up day with big yeilders rising, but looks like good resistance up at 5300-5350. I think if we remain below it this week, its down to 5100-5000 towards end of the month. But I know if I took the short it'll spike back up the other way, I didn't, so we'll go down. :




Calling that the bottom is in would be foolish but price action is certainly trying to push into previous trading range.
I also see this on a one hour ..... anyone agree bearish wedge ?
Guess I'll be trading it's breakout either way.


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## skc (22 October 2014)

Very important juncture for the recent slide then rally. There's been very little hesitation shown today so perhaps we can leave the "almost correction" behind.

But the next 50 points or so might be hard grinding.


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## Wysiwyg (27 October 2014)

Indications point to a rally end in the next week. The big question is are we half way through a correction or is the low in. Can't help thinking the worst medium term with terrorism/conflict in the conscious and bull run exhaustion.


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## dlineinvestor (27 October 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Indications point to a rally end in the next week. The big question is are we half way through a correction or is the low in. Can't help thinking the worst medium term with terrorism/conflict in the conscious and bull run exhaustion.




Question is if you were long from the recent bottom would you close your long now ?
The best entry is always on a retest, last July was a classic. (made a motza on BHP). So with any luck we will have one of those soon in line with xmas rally (if that is to be), then things will be much more clear.
With all this macro - economic news some times the market completely ignores it.


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## piggybank (27 October 2014)

Went through the 50% fib (on the up) today.

​


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 October 2014)

It is all looking good for the ASX Longs atm 

Patience and persistence pays.

gg


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## db94 (27 October 2014)

Trading halt on ANZ with accidental leaked results http://www.businessinsider.com.au/o...s-annual-results-before-they-were-due-2014-10

perhaps guidance on xao movements in next week?


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## piggybank (19 November 2014)

I wonder if we are going to see this downward trend breaking thorough the most recent low of 5121 If so, will we be going into 2015 below the 5000 level?

​


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## rimtas (19 November 2014)

piggybank said:


> If so, will we be going into 2015 below the 5000 level?




There is an ascending long term trendline that goes back from 1974 and the market needs to colapse next few weeks  -only in this way it could reach this trendline  below 5000 which currently sits at 4880 area.   A slow decline won't make it below 5000. 
Market touched that line a numerous times  in the past and each time it provided a good support for an uptrend to stay intact.     I personally think that it won't get even close to it  and the rally to new highs will resume soon.


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## Wysiwyg (20 November 2014)

rimtas said:


> There is an ascending long term trendline that goes back from 1974 and the market needs to colapse next few weeks  -only in this way it could reach this trendline  below 5000 which currently sits at 4880 area.



Interestingly, trend lines are only trend lines until the next trend line marker is formed. Still, at least a reference point for chart analysis. This is a monthly showing the trend lines, low to low, before and after GFC. Start points with trend lines, as with all T/A, are subjective. Scaled logarithmic.


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## piggybank (20 November 2014)

Hi,

Interesting charts above so thanks to the members for sharing them and your thoughts with use. I don't see it going down as far as 4000 points and if I am wrong (as I often am) this wouldn't bode well for the country as a whole. 

However, I have noticed that the past couple of days of action has seen it break through the 38.2 Fib followed by today's break thorough and close below the 50% Fib which is a bit of a worry.

​


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## rimtas (20 November 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Start points with trend lines, as with all T/A, are subjective.




One must use a proper basis for analysis, then subjectivity will be gone...
 In most cases each Impulsive wave stays within the channel.
 I must stress that I do not draw the lines, market does. I just connect the points which market thinks are important, and miraculasly you have a line, right?

How about those charts, what do they tell you? Probably that market needs to return to the 1000 mark to touch the main trendline again. But when? Can it go much more upwards before it breaks down? Sure. It can go parabolic on the log scale in the second chart. And only then break.


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## Muschu (20 November 2014)

This is a real "banter" comment as my TA skills are more than deficient.

Market volatility seems at a very high level.  I'm too mature (aka "old") to be a trader.

Any thoughts on the extent to which the current downtrend is directly linked to the iron ore price and the implications of that for our economy?


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## rimtas (20 November 2014)

I doubt that iron ore decline has any implications on economy. 
New lows in iron ore, but near new highs in the markets.  And markets leads the economy, so iron ore is closer to the bottom than to the top.  if there was a direct connection between ore and economy, AUS would be in depression by now.


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## Muschu (21 November 2014)

rimtas said:


> I doubt that iron ore decline has any implications on economy.
> New lows in iron ore, but near new highs in the markets.  And markets leads the economy, so iron ore is closer to the bottom than to the top.  if there was a direct connection between ore and economy, AUS would be in depression by now.




I appreciate your expertise and the comments above Rimtas. I wonder then to what extent sentiment is the key driver and the connection of this to economic realities? 

I read your posts with interest and you may have provided this info before, or may choose not to do so: Wondering if you are a full-time professional analyst / trader or whether this is a part-time absorbing interest / involvement? 

You certainly are prepared to take the time to make regular and significant posts to ASF - thank you.

I remember you also said that you don't like losses... (who does?) and I imagine you are more skilled at not experiencing this than most posters on ASF... 

But is it fair to assume you have experienced losses occasionally? Only asking as a I assume becoming the perfect investor an unachievable aspiration for mere mortals like me.

If "put on the spot" where do you see the XAO at the end of the year?

Please continue with your fascinating posts.


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## nulla nulla (21 November 2014)

rimtas said:


> ....How about those charts, what do they tell you? .........
> 
> 
> View attachment 60355
> ...




Actually, while your horizontal time period increments in both charts are uniform (in the time between each other), the value of the increments in between the vertical reference values are not uniform. Accordingly the configuration of the charts (giving the appearance of lines moving across the page at an angle of approx 45 degrees) is false. 

If the vertical value increments in both charts were uniform in value, the line angles in both charts would appear to be much steeper and probably better show the significant swings during the history of bull and bear markets. 

Is it possible to show both charts again with uniform increments on the vertical axis?


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## qldfrog (21 November 2014)

log scale is a must if you think about performance as %
do you care  that in 1960 a shared increased by 2 $ (a sizable amount then) or more that it increased by 30%?
absolute values are meaningless after inflation in long time scale so the use of logs...and I assume the reason rimtas uses them?


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## Wysiwyg (22 November 2014)

Noticed our futures market has bounced off a low. Up more than 1% at the moment in line with a significant rise in the U.S. Tough to call a short term bottom on our market but a decent bounce up anyway. 
U.S. blow off top?


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## TheUnknown (16 December 2014)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*

Can we see 4800 before new year? I think so.


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## Porper (16 December 2014)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



TheUnknown said:


> Can we see 4800 before new year? I think so.




Why 4800? What's the analysis behind that call?


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## TheUnknown (16 December 2014)

*Re: XAO Technical Analysis*



Porper said:


> Why 4800? What's the analysis behind that call?





* Australian economy is cactus
* Most ASX companies are in big debt
* US is shaky
* China is shaky
* Europe is cactus

Biggest export for australia has died in the ****......nothing good happening with economy jobless rate gets higher by the month, budget blow out and collapse of oil.

once oil collapses share market usually follows next.

But what would i know...


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## CanOz (16 December 2014)

Perhaps Porper was wondering how you arrived at 4800, is it a technical level or you just pulled it out of thin air?

Seems pretty accurate for all the macro elements you pointed out...


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## TheUnknown (16 December 2014)

CanOz said:


> Perhaps Porper was wondering how you arrived at 4800, is it a technical level or you just pulled it out of thin air?
> 
> Seems pretty accurate for all the macro elements you pointed out...




I arrived at that number based on what is happening around the world + what is happening with the aus economy a  lot of things are happening behind the scenes which you and i don't know we are the small fish.

Oil collapsing is a BIG thing - yes it could be political to bankrupt russia but it could be  the fact that 0 to almost 0 growth around the world, look at all the commodity prices everything is almost down and when i say down we are talking big time decrease in prices. 

I don't try to be a smartar.se or try to know it all but 2015 will be a very hard year for the aus economy and the world, it's pretty simple if it wasn't all bad you wouldn't have 'record level low interest rates' with *NO* plan in the distant future of increasing them.

I'm probably wrong....................but its my opinion.

PS......whatever happens even if it jumps above 5400 it will soon go right down to about 4800 or lower.


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## notting (16 December 2014)

The Russian $ seemed to have just capitulated.
It should stabilize now.
All the Russian oil companies should cash in their internationally held $$$ and go hard on rubles and even leverage rubles against the US $.
That would pretty much reverse the outflow, solve everything and they'd make a killing. Be getting plenty of rubles for their oil right now too, maybe lock in future sales with a hedge at the current currency swap rate! That would be a killer.  They'd be looking at around 110US a barrel in ruble equivalent prices of a couple of months ago.


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## Muschu (17 December 2014)

TheUnknown said:


> I arrived at that number based on what is happening around the world + what is happening with the aus economy a  lot of things are happening behind the scenes which you and i don't know we are the small fish.
> 
> Oil collapsing is a BIG thing - yes it could be political to bankrupt russia but it could be  the fact that 0 to almost 0 growth around the world, look at all the commodity prices everything is almost down and when i say down we are talking big time decrease in prices.
> 
> ...




It's a night when I feel disinclined to tolerate vague and inconsistent posts.

So you are telling us you are "probably wrong"' and then add your definitive PS...  

I am not an informed or intelligent  investor although I'd like to be.  I also hope I don't pretend to be either.

I am not trying to put you down but there is no need, surely, to impress....


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## PinguPingu (17 December 2014)

Big fade and collapse into the close on todays relief rally, not looking great. FOMC minutes tonight will be key to whether it holds ~5121


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## pavilion103 (18 December 2014)

Hi Santa. How's it going? What you been up to this year? Good to see you again.

I wonder if this is the low now.


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## PinguPingu (18 December 2014)

Even with the biggest reach-around from Uncle Sam the ASX still feels little love with another looks to be fading day..:bricks1:


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## DeepState (18 December 2014)

PinguPingu said:


> Even with the biggest reach-around from Uncle Sam....





At least he had the common courtesy to give it.


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## McLovin (18 December 2014)

He stole my move.


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## Logique (19 December 2014)

Buckle up today..


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## PinguPingu (22 December 2014)

:chimney

He has arrived!


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## notting (24 December 2014)

US economy posted its strongest growth in more than a decade during the third quarter, supported by robust consumer spending.
Gee I wonder if they should raise rates?
I wonder what rates were the last time they had this kind of growth.
Yellen is behind the curve.


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## Logique (30 December 2014)

What do people think?  Different scales for a start.

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - By Mark Hulbert -11 Feb 2014
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11?link=kiosk


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## Logique (30 December 2014)

Another one for the Bears.

Why the Next Stock Market Crash Will Happen Any Day Now - by Christian Hill - 28 Dec 2014 
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Finance-Stocks/2013/03/01/id/492699/



> ..The evidence is in a group of charts released by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
> Individually, these charts may not mean much. But taken collectively, they are simply too much for any investor to ignore..


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## pavilion103 (30 December 2014)

Thanks for that. 

I am trying to get on a position trade short. Particularly at these levels. 

The past couple of weeks was such a sharp little push up. Probably a really good place to get in if this is going to fall from here. 

Interesting to see how this plays out.


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## Smurf1976 (30 December 2014)

Logique said:


> What do people think?  Different scales for a start.




Interesting but there's far less actual movement (note the scale difference) in % terms now than in 1929.

That doesn't necessarily make it invalid, no doubt we could all come up with explanations for the lower volatility, but there's a definite difference there.

Looks like we'll know the answer in a matter of weeks at most if it's correct.


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## rimtas (30 December 2014)

Logique said:


> What do people think?  Different scales for a start.
> 
> Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - By Mark Hulbert -11 Feb 2014
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11?link=kiosk






I am not sure why you posted this chart comparison now, besause it is one year old.


The situation resolved itself in the folowing way:








Everyone comparing history charts with current day charts must know the basics of a Fractal Formation, which tells that fractals self-replicate with high probability ratio only at one degree higher within the wave structure. The more backwards you go, the less probability it has to replicate itsefl. 

And the popular chart in mass media instantly kills even the remaining few % of chances to replicate further price action. This particular chart I even saw in one small European traders forum earlier this year, so it really was a widespread idea.


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## notting (30 December 2014)

Believe me!
you are not going to have any kind of financial crisis when oil has dropped over 50%.
We'll unless that's all you've got to sell.


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## Smurf1976 (30 December 2014)

notting said:


> Believe me!
> you are not going to have any kind of financial crisis when oil has dropped over 50%.
> We'll unless that's all you've got to sell.




Agreed that the oil price plunge will help many aspects of the economy. That said, oil is still expensive by historical standards even after the recent falls.

I'd argue that it's "less bad" now that it's down around USD55 or thereabouts rather than being genuinely "good" as such.


----------



## qldfrog (30 December 2014)

rimtas said:


> I am not sure why you posted this chart comparison now, besause it is one year old.
> 
> 
> The situation resolved itself in the folowing way:



Agreed, I rode that wave  and had great paper profit till december 2013 then it started diverging and lost all my paper gain + more
past is not representative of future
the comparison was so eerily in its matching I could hardly believe it so I added a lot of options..but they ended expiring worthless
on that peculiar idea, i went from +60k or so to -80k at the end of the year when all was counted in.
A good but expensive lesson!!!


----------



## Julia (30 December 2014)

notting said:


> Believe me!
> you are not going to have any kind of financial crisis when oil has dropped over 50%.
> We'll unless that's all you've got to sell.



It might not at all be as simple as that.
Have a look at this, from tonight's 7.30.  
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4155928.htm

Note in particular comments from SATYAJIT DAS, Financial Analyst whose discussion on the GFC both before it happened and later was prescient.


----------



## qldfrog (31 December 2014)

Thanks julia, was quite instructive.


----------



## notting (31 December 2014)

subprime oil? Bollox. 
There is no such thing on the enough scale nor the leverage on any global scale. 
The whole subprime thing was one of the casualties, it wasn't the cause of the GFC.  The cause was the high oil prices that was the trigger.  Everything was stopping in some countries. It just exposed the sub prime over extension.

Saying that lower oil prices may not stimulate is like saying rate cuts no longer stimulate.
The losers are the Arabs who have been ripping the world off for decades.
Consumer economies will benefit greatly and even China will benefit by it being easier to make the transition to a more consumer based economy.
Lower oil prices will even help Europe.  It's the solution to just about everything on scale.

I think the justifiable fear would be if it's more a demand issue.  Like the rest of commodities indicating a China collapse or general slow down in the majority of the globe that will out way US growth.


----------



## Logique (31 December 2014)

All in all, a confusing investment year ahead.

The US market is on a trend, ditto Japan and China, but have they run all too far? Look at the exponential Shanghai Composite, wow.  

Europe and Austr are looking uncertain.

I don't know, it's not going to be easy in 2015.


----------



## Logique (31 December 2014)

rimtas said:


> I am not sure why you posted this chart comparison now, besause it is one year old.
> The situation resolved itself in the following way..



Fair point thanks for that. Very interesting to see how the US index subsequently blasted through the bearish hypothesis in that article.


----------



## qldfrog (31 December 2014)

Logique said:


> Very interesting to see how the US index subsequently blasted through the bearish hypothesis in that article.



and very costly for me


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 January 2015)

Ann said:


> Looking at the chart, if there is a retrace it may well hold at 5000. After nearly five months the All Ords is still banging its head on the overhead trendline. It looks as though it is getting a bit tired and may do a retrace. (Licks lips with buying opportunities.)



That chart reminded me a 1000 point drop is always a possibility.  Conditions in Aust. would have to deteriorate a lot more for that I think. It's been a tough grind but optimism and low interest rates might spark a concerted break above 6000 points this year.


----------



## PinguPingu (29 January 2015)

Wow, what a fade and rally to shake off Wall Streets heavy fall. CBA and TLS leading like crazy in the hunt for yield. TBH, with the RBA likely to cut if not this month than next, and global bond yields getting crushed, I think its only going to continue...


----------



## notting (13 February 2015)

For an economy that is worse off than it was during the GFC the market is having a great day, so far!


----------



## PinguPingu (13 February 2015)

notting said:


> For an economy that is worse off than it was during the GFC the market is having a great day, so far!




Haha, you now how people often quip that Australia is usually 3-4 years behind the US in trends? Well, I guess its now our turn to have our markets surge on loose monetary policy and a falling dollar


----------



## qldfrog (13 February 2015)

and I expect the boom to carry on till asx at 6500/7000 while bankrupcy and unemployment will surge
I learnt that experience in the past, real economy is often disconnected from market
so let's enjoy the ride and be ready to jump off the train in time


----------



## Julia (13 February 2015)

notting said:


> For an economy that is worse off than it was during the GFC the market is having a great day, so far!



What's driving it today?  I haven't seen or heard anything especially exciting.


----------



## PinguPingu (13 February 2015)

Julia said:


> What's driving it today?  I haven't seen or heard anything especially exciting.





The bad jobs number has lifted the chance of another rate cut in March to 70%, according to bond markets. 

International investors see the ASX as relatively cheap now the currency has dropped near enough to Glenny's 75 US cents goal and the market provides large cap high yields, add to that local demand. 

A tech would say simply more buyers than sellers as we break above last weeks high.


----------



## skc (13 February 2015)

Julia said:


> What's driving it today?  I haven't seen or heard anything especially exciting.




Didn't you get the memo? We have joined the global cheap money ZIRP orgy last month. The RBA turned on the muic and everyone's invited to dance. We are in a place where bad news = good news and good news = good news.


----------



## Wysiwyg (13 February 2015)

notting said:


> For an economy that is worse off than it was during the GFC the market is having a great day, so far!



Well the Index rose a lot but the majority of stocks didn't. In the ASX 300 there were 19 stocks that closed more than 5% higher than yesterday and 69 stocks that closed more than 3% higher than yesterday. I had to check because my holdings and watchlist went backward, stayed neutral or rose 1 or 2%.


----------



## Julia (13 February 2015)

skc said:


> Didn't you get the memo? We have joined the global cheap money ZIRP orgy last month. The RBA turned on the music and everyone's invited to dance. We are in a place where bad news = good news and good news = good news.



Well, thank you, skc, for bringing me up to date.  Obviously I have a lot of rethinking to do in order to understand the new paradigm.


----------



## burglar (13 February 2015)

The ABC, in a rush to find an excuse after the fact, have stated the upcoming Ukrainian ceasefire and the softening Greek situation are leading factors.

(that's got to be bullsh!t, doesn't it?)


----------



## cynic (13 February 2015)

skc said:


> Didn't you get the memo? We have joined the global cheap money ZIRP orgy last month. The RBA turned on the muic and everyone's invited to dance. We are in a place where bad news = good news and good news = good news.




Huh!! 

ZIRP is sssoooo last decade!

Europe's already thoroughly engrossed in ZIRP's sequel - namely NIRP!!

As usual Australia takes a bit more time to catch up with the latest international fads.


----------



## skc (13 February 2015)

cynic said:


> Huh!!
> 
> ZIRP is sssoooo last decade!
> 
> ...




Yes... we are in a different time zone so we got to cross zero before we can hit negative. 

May be in 2025 we will go negative -5% official cash rate, while homeloans have a margin of 3%. Now, just imagine a world where you can take out a home loan at -2%. That'd be great. Someone's paying me to live in a $15m mansion. 



Julia said:


> Well, thank you, skc, for bringing me up to date.  Obviously I have a lot of rethinking to do in order to understand the new paradigm.




Yes... that's the sad truth. I just recently started looking after the finance of my parents since their retirement... and I share the same feeling as you. I roll my eyes at the "new paradigm", yet at the same time I have to go seek higher returns. 

It's a terrible situation. The music is playing, everyone can hear it and everyone is FORCED to dance, irrespective of whether they want to dance, can dance, or have a bad hip. When the music stops, many people will be left stranded. I just hope that I won't be one of them... but it also means that I would probably leave the dance floor several times before the music actually stops.


----------



## qldfrog (14 February 2015)

skc said:


> The music is playing, everyone can hear it and everyone is FORCED to dance, irrespective of whether they want to dance, can dance, or have a bad hip. When the music stops, many people will be left stranded. I just hope that I won't be one of them... but it also means that I would probably leave the dance floor several times before the music actually stops.



+1 same here not that comfortable but no choice


----------



## Julia (14 February 2015)

skc said:


> Yes... that's the sad truth. I just recently started looking after the finance of my parents since their retirement... and I share the same feeling as you. I roll my eyes at the "new paradigm", yet at the same time I have to go seek higher returns.



I heard a bit of Glenn Stevens' comments to parliament yesterday;  he was expressing caution about dropping rates further.  One of the reasons he offered was his concern about retirees experiencing such diminished returns, and the likelihood that this could drive them into more risky investments.

There is so much uncertainty globally and nationally, imo a prudent person won't be succumbing to the temptation to put everything into the market, despite days like yesterday.


----------



## McLovin (14 February 2015)

skc said:


> Didn't you get the memo? We have joined the global cheap money ZIRP orgy last month. The RBA turned on the muic and everyone's invited to dance. We are in a place where bad news = good news and good news = good news.




We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.


----------



## Ves (14 February 2015)

McLovin said:


> We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.



Isn't a bubble just when people see the market go up 10% and disagree?


----------



## Porper (14 February 2015)

Ves said:


> Isn't a bubble just when people see the market go up 10% and disagree?




No, a bubble is when the market keeps going up and everybody thinks it will continue going up. Nowhere near a bubble/crash i.m.o. In fact a lot of retail investors are still on the sidelines holding cash. The technical picture is also looking much more bullish with key levels penetrated recently.


----------



## nulla nulla (14 February 2015)

McLovin said:


> We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.




I think if you reduced your cross section of shares in your assessment to the yield and/or yield plus franking credits type shares, the price earnings ratio may be higher???? A lot of foreign investment poured in with the recent Euro money printing exercise and the retrace of the Aud$ linked to the interest rate fall.


----------



## notting (14 February 2015)

It's never a bubble until something pops.


----------



## cynic (14 February 2015)

notting said:


> It's never a bubble until something pops.




Wouldn't that make it an ex-bubble?


----------



## howmanyru (15 February 2015)

Probably not in a bubble yet, but it wont take long to get there IMO. Real estate is maxed out, low global interest rates, gold has lost it's shine, where are those billions going to go? I am placing a lot of cash in the market, but keep my finger on the sell button. You can't fight the trend, it's either have your cash burnt in the bank by no interest and inflation, or put it in the market. I think lots of hack investors like myself are thinking the same. We missed out on the rebound after 2008 and now want some of the action. Low rates are forcing us out of cash positions, i wont be the only one thinking like this. Lol, then when everyone is in, they will crash the market and transfer our wealth to the insiders again.


----------



## skc (15 February 2015)

McLovin said:


> We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.




No. I don't think we are in a bubble yet (nor did I say or imply that). I simply think that we have the conditions for inflating one.

And that's why I am putting money in the market (part forced, part incentivised, and part led by greed) ... and on some really boring stuff as well. Like Big 4 and REITs. I just need to make sure I leave before it pops. I am happy about the inflating part, but I am not happy about people's potential to get hurt in the pop.



Porper said:


> No, a *bubble is when the market keeps going up and everybody thinks it will continue going up. *Nowhere near a bubble/crash i.m.o. In fact a lot of retail investors are still on the sidelines holding cash. The technical picture is also looking much more bullish with key levels penetrated recently.




Yes. We are well within striking distance of the old all time high. 

P.S. Everyone seems to agree that we are not in a bubble here. Danger danger!

P.P.S. Oh the irony of the markets and the crowd!


----------



## PinguPingu (16 February 2015)

Haha wow, bad auto sales news means more chance of a rate cut and the market rallies from the low. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny7uGEPgoXk

:aliena:


----------



## McLovin (16 February 2015)

skc said:


> I simply think that we have the conditions for inflating one.




I agree on that. I'd love the market back at 4,000. That was money for jam.

It'll be interesting to see when/if XSO comes along for the ride this time.


----------



## pavilion103 (16 February 2015)

McLovin said:


> I agree on that. I'd love the market back at 4,000. That was money for jam.
> 
> It'll be interesting to see when/if XSO comes along for the ride this time.





Yep will be huge profits to me made.

The best part about the markets is you can ride it on the way down and then back up. Two enormous opportunities during a crash period.

I haven't experienced this yet in my time trading personally. But looking at 2008-2010ish gets me excited.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 March 2015)

Bit of the Coles advertisement at the moment. "Down, down, prices are down." Oil down, gold down, US Equities down. Suppose the XAO has no choice but to go down tomorrow.


----------



## qldfrog (9 March 2015)

yeap we saw it coming , still hurts


----------



## nulla nulla (9 March 2015)

The XAO fell in follow up to the Dow falling. The Dow fell because the US jobs report was better than expected. Because the jobs report was better than expected, the market made the leap that interest rates would rise. I suspect that the reality is more likely to be a scenario where the Fed takes the position that "What we are doing is working. Lets continue to do this a bit longer". 

In my humble opinion there is unlikely to be any change in the US official interest rates for another two (2) quarters if not longer. I suspect that the US market adjustment yesterday is more likely to reverse tomorrow or in the next few days, than it is to continue down. Our market will follow suite and today (in hindsight) will probably prove to have been an opportunity to buy. I could be wrong. I often am. Its' what makes the market challenging. good luck .


----------



## rimtas (9 March 2015)

nulla nulla said:


> I could be wrong. I often am.






Don't worry about that. As long as you have a yearly profit higher than cash rate, consider the year a win.
 You can be wrong 9 times out of 10, but the remaining 1 can bring you a jackpot.


----------



## qldfrog (9 March 2015)

hum I see a few more down days with xao at 5600/5500 before a rush up past the 6000
will see a few stop loss activated but not out of the market yet


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 March 2015)

Noticed additional supply suppressing any run ups on my watchlist today. Some players selling at a loss while others locking in profits. Fear????


----------



## nulla nulla (10 March 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Noticed additional supply suppressing any run ups on my watchlist today. Some players selling at a loss while others locking in profits. Fear????




Also possible accumulation. Some of the larger funds can and do hold prices down after a sell off, while they accumulate additional shares. When they reach their position size at the desired average cost, they take the brakes off and let the market move ahead.


----------



## VSntchr (10 March 2015)

nulla nulla said:


> Some of the larger funds can and do hold prices down after a sell off, while they accumulate additional shares. When they reach their position size at the desired average cost, they take the brakes off and let the market move ahead.




I hear about such a process quite often but I can't really understand how this is achieved. Is it done by a process of selling stock at opportune times i.e when the depth goes thinner or at places where stop runs can be achieved? 
And then buying back once the runs have occurred?


----------



## PinguPingu (13 March 2015)

Can anyone explain why we now seem to be negatively correlated with overseas market movement :blbl:


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 April 2015)

Triple top on the daily or break the invisible line? Found myself watching stocks put on large gains over the last few months. Somewhat dumbfounded about the economy and the market action.


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 April 2015)

Must be close to breaking up from this consolidation. This 6000 point game is becoming a boring orchestration but gotta stay focused on the long term goal.


----------



## Tyler Durden (5 May 2015)

Interest rates down to historical low today and market goes down.

Things are looking a bit shaky.


----------



## merlinnn (5 May 2015)

Why is that? The US gets a sniff of a possible hike and the sky is falling, we get a cut and its dark and stormy! WTF?

Can anyone shed some light on that for me?


----------



## tinhat (5 May 2015)

It's property that has been booming, not the stock market. Yield seeking has pushed share prices to very high levels based on PEs and earnings growth outlooks. The earnings outlooks don't justify the PE ratios of many companies IMHO. The fundamentals don't justify the high prices across the board at the moment. Better to pick stocks on a bottom up approach whether that be technical or based on fundamentals. There are always great businesses to be found.


----------



## skc (6 May 2015)

tinhat said:


> It's property that has been booming, not the stock market. Yield seeking has pushed share prices to very high levels based on PEs and earnings growth outlooks. The earnings outlooks don't justify the PE ratios of many companies IMHO. The fundamentals don't justify the high prices across the board at the moment. Better to pick stocks on a bottom up approach whether that be technical or based on fundamentals. There are always great businesses to be found.




Every stock valuation method involves using interest rate as input... banks are expensive on some measures (like price/book) while cheap on other measures (like yield / bond).

Buffet said it the other day...



> Mr Buffett responded that policymakers have "done a lot of things that weren't in my Economics 101 course", so the very low rates changed the usual calculations.
> 
> "Stocks are selling at high prices historically, but you need to look at them in the context of rates," Mr Buffett said.
> 
> ...




http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-m...tes-key-to-sharemarket-bubble-20150502-1myod1

It's confusing times that's for sure.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 May 2015)

merlinnn said:


> Why is that? The US gets a sniff of a possible hike and the sky is falling, we get a cut and its dark and stormy! WTF?
> 
> Can anyone shed some light on that for me?



Probably the down volatile phase after sideways but pick you're excuse why. A pessimistic look forward? The American markets have high P/E stocks too but their markets still remain elevated.     

Up volatile (11%) 

Up quiet (19%)     

Sideways volatile (20%) 

Sideways quiet (38%) 

Down volatile (10%) 

Down quiet (2%) 

(source - Van Tharp)


----------



## Logique (7 May 2015)

When CBA hits $95+ it's a Sell, and the market follows. The insto's knock each other over in the rush.

There'll be buyers soon for CBA, between $80-82, and then we'll consolidate.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 June 2015)

Logique said:


> When CBA hits $95+ it's a Sell, and the market follows. The insto's knock each other over in the rush.
> 
> There'll be buyers soon for CBA, between $80-82, and then we'll consolidate.



$79.19 low today. Looks like a sniff on the XAO of supply drying up or is there more selling before going up again? I am all in stocks due mainly to optimism and partially to company reports and outlook.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 June 2015)

Really gotta knock these sellers out of the market and leave them behind. Leave them way behind in an uptrend.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 June 2015)

Massive dumps at the closing auction? What the.


----------



## History Repeats (19 June 2015)

From weekly may be going to meet the lower trend channel line 5300. More probability going down to meet the lower trend channel line as its below the channel mean, the middle line. From middle downward trend the orange line 5460 would an area to watch out. From hourly break down of lower trend channel line. I think it could test the green line again if broken then all the way down to 5460. Another way looking at hourly chart shown in attachment.  So basically i think $xao could be going down a bit more.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 June 2015)

Today (Monday 29th) is looking more like a lead to a further selloff tomorrow. Really at the mercy of the large markets and not much can be done but wait I suppose. No use fighting the fear.


----------



## MrBurns (29 June 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Today (Monday 29th) is looking more like a lead to a further selloff tomorrow. Really at the mercy of the large markets and not much can be done but wait I suppose. No use fighting the fear.




Might be good buying opportunities ? 
Don't ask me I'm a contrarian investor, always the wrong way...


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 June 2015)

MrBurns said:


> Might be good buying opportunities ?
> Don't ask me I'm a contrarian investor, always the wrong way...



Wouldn't there be a lot of people annoyed if there is a bounce up tomorrow. Today was more than some disturbed day traders taking a hit.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 June 2015)

I haven't done any real analysis but I'm thinking that the falls would at least partly be due to tax loss driven selling given it's the end of financial year?


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 June 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> I haven't done any real analysis but I'm thinking that the falls would at least partly be due to tax loss driven selling given it's the end of financial year?



Volume was larger on Friday and less today so this is suspect. Blue chips especially lacked volume to match the gap down and range which is an anomaly. I think there are clingers still in the market with more downside to come.


----------



## Logique (30 June 2015)

Unfortunately the sentiment surrounding the Greek (probable) debt default will continue to be a massive headwind for global markets.  Even if Greece is only <2% of the Europe economy.

Looks Bearish for now.  The All Ords is likely to finish in the 5,300s today.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 July 2015)

Logique said:


> Unfortunately the sentiment surrounding the Greek (probable) debt default will continue to be a massive headwind for global markets.  Even if Greece is only <2% of the Europe economy.
> 
> Looks Bearish for now.



Good assessment. Have to fess up and admit the recent month I have erased all gains for the year and turned negative.   Another influence from elsewhere that stunts the ASX.


----------



## Trembling Hand (8 July 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Good assessment. Have to fess up and admit the recent month I have erased all gains for the year and turned negative.   Another influence from elsewhere that stunts the ASX.




I'm thinking the slap down and what is to come is far more focused on China than Greece.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 July 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm thinking the slap down and what is to come is far more focused on China than Greece.




Agree, China is a more important factor than Greece. 

gg


----------



## kid hustlr (20 August 2015)

Interesting few months here.

6% fully franked divies in the banks has got to be starting to looking appealing to some??


----------



## kid hustlr (20 August 2015)

In an attempt to be nostradamous:






Any thoughts out there??


----------



## Porper (20 August 2015)

kid hustlr said:


> In an attempt to be nostradamous:
> 
> 
> View attachment 63931
> ...




Spot on...plenty of support around 5000. Then the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone between 4558 - 4219 - if support is breached. Should take years, not months to hit that lower target though.


----------



## shouldaindex (21 August 2015)

XAO was 5121 in December last year, then made 830 points to April.

Seasonal history shows December to April returns are 4.5 times higher than June to October (6.7% to 1.5%) since 1985.

So in the absence of a major trigger (most likely China or U.S) wiping off 2016 earnings, my guess would be a similar pattern based on seasonal sentiment.


----------



## kid hustlr (21 August 2015)

-100 at lunch you'd dip your toe in here wouldn't you?


----------



## skyQuake (21 August 2015)

kid hustlr said:


> -100 at lunch you'd dip your toe in here wouldn't you?




Be careful not to lose the whole foot!


----------



## kid hustlr (21 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> Be careful not to lose the whole foot!




doesn't matter ill just turn it into a long term trade


----------



## notting (21 August 2015)

kid hustlr said:


> doesn't matter ill just turn it into a long term trade




"Actually waiter! Make it a carcass."

All depends on how many dims sims Mr.Cha-Ching(of the CCP) wants to stuff in after the official lunch.


----------



## shouldaindex (21 August 2015)

Biggest drawdowns (selecting a peak to trough) between April to November since 2009:

2010 - 800 points (16%)
2011 - 1050 points (20%)
2012 - 400 points (10%)
2013 - 500 points (10%)
2014 - 500 points (9%)
2015 - 750 points (12%) *current

It's nothing new.  

It's also been 4 years since a 15% drop, the maximum is 5 years (since 1960, as far as I researched).  So it is no surprise that either 2015 or 2016 is headed for the largest since 2011.


----------



## gartley (21 August 2015)

Post #9449 back in April saw it all coming.  Pattern, Price and Time all came together. Perfect Gartley pattern from 2007 high, Perfect ABC up from 2009 low.  89 Fibonacci Months from 2007 peak to 2015 Peak. Something significant had to be expected. CMA crossover attached give approximate targets before a rally starts


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=473&p=865416&viewfull=1#post865416


----------



## skyQuake (24 August 2015)

kid hustlr said:


> doesn't matter ill just turn it into a long term trade




Hows the toe/foot/leg/lower torso 

Think we should have a bounce here @ 5k on the SPI though. China off the lows


----------



## PinguPingu (24 August 2015)

Holy crap, I thought hmm we might break and stay below 5100 today, I did not see us approaching and possibly testing 5000 already!


----------



## kid hustlr (24 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> Hows the toe/foot/leg/lower torso
> 
> Think we should have a bounce here @ 5k on the SPI though. China off the lows




I didn't buy, I have moved some cash around in preparation but I don't think there's a rush to pull the trigger. If I was trading intra day I would have bought on open thinking that would have been the low for the day (wrong!)

My plan is too look at some long term LIC type stuff if this rout continues.


----------



## shouldaindex (24 August 2015)

House Prices, Bad Debts and Unemployment are highly correlated to peaks and troughs of the ASX over the past 25 years (8 cycles).

Right now, I'm still not seeing those affected in the real world, so think this negative sentiment in the market is more likely to be a rehearsal, that will see a retrace during the better seasonal period of the year.  

Taking the last 20% decline for example:

2010 April 5000 (peak)
2010 July 4200 (seasonal sentiment bottom)
2011 April 5000 (retrace during better seasonal returns in absence of trigger)
2011 September 3900 (major bear leg with actual business decline)


----------



## gartley (25 August 2015)

In post no #1831 we expected the market to reach an extreme between 4830 and 5030. This was reached this morning. The low on the exchange this morning was 4936 and the market has rebounded.

That attached updated weekly cycles projection was spot on. The projection for the AUS200 CFD data was 4858 on a closing price basis so you can see it was very close.

The weekly 3 cycle decompisitions 86 bar, 43 bar, and 22 bar have all reached extremes relative to earlier level lows and we should expect a countertrend move into September. The only way this can be wrong and the market continues to tank instead of first rallying is if there is even a larger cycle in force than that of the weekly within the larger timeframe such as monthly.


----------



## PennD (25 August 2015)

gartley said:


> In post no #1831 we expected the market to reach an extreme between 4830 and 5030. This was reached this morning. The low on the exchange this morning was 4936 and the market has rebounded.
> 
> That attached updated weekly cycles projection was spot on. The projection for the AUS200 CFD data was 4858 on a closing price basis so you can see it was very close.
> 
> The weekly 3 cycle decompisitions 86 bar, 43 bar, and 22 bar have all reached extremes relative to earlier level lows and we should expect a countertrend move into September. The only way this can be wrong and the market continues to tank instead of first rallying is if there is even a larger cycle in force than that of the weekly within the larger timeframe such as monthly.




Hi Gartley.. 
Maybe we get another bounce tomorrow for a wave 4 then a little fiver closer to your lower end target before rallying into september?? Thats what I've got an eye out for anyway.. 
I see the US retesting there lows later this week also before shooting off to god knows where? 
Volatility has entered the building. Some fantastic opportunities coming up... Thanks for sharing


----------



## gartley (25 August 2015)

PennD said:


> Hi Gartley..
> Maybe we get another bounce tomorrow for a wave 4 then a little fiver closer to your lower end target before rallying into september?? Thats what I've got an eye out for anyway..




Anything is possible. We are only dealing with probabilities!!!

But if I take the following updated 1hr and 8hr cycles analysis and price projections at face value they suggest rally maybe a fraction more tomorrow morning to finish wave A, then pullback for a few days to finish B and then rally to wave C at price projection of 5380-5400. A better projection can be made a little later, but the 8hr bar cycle charts as can be seen suggest further upside later on, but the best part of the rally came today.

The market broke below and closed below important market structure at 5400. I think it's gonna be hard to get anywhere significant back above at least in the near term and IF we get near that level THEN maybe another shorting opportunity.


----------



## gartley (27 August 2015)

Following on from post #1838.

Our initial target very early on in the rally was 5380-5400. Now that the cycle has developed further we are able to project more accurate targets. Those targets are 5494 with a possible extension to 5558.


----------



## shouldaindex (27 August 2015)

Does anyone think we'll hit new lows (4936) later this year?


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## Triathlete (28 August 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Does anyone think we'll hit new lows (4936) later this year?





I think that level is possible. Looking at my monthly chart I believe we are now in a Long term wave 4 which can retrace 38.2% to 61.8%. This is around 5150 and 4640 Level.

So I will be looking to see if we can stay above the 38.2% level or not at this stage.

 Below is the chart XAO monthly.


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## PennD (28 August 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I think that level is possible. Looking at my monthly chart I believe we are now in a Long term wave 4 which can retrace 38.2% to 61.8%. This is around 5150 and 4640 Level.
> 
> So I will be looking to see if we can stay above the 38.2% level or not at this stage.
> 
> ...




Thats a massive overlap of wave 1 there triathlete?


----------



## Triathlete (28 August 2015)

Sorry about that i was still asleep you are correct that would invalidate that particular wave count...my mistake disregard my previous chart...!!!!!!! I should take more care next time.


----------



## PennD (28 August 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Sorry about that i was still asleep you are correct that would invalidate that particular wave count...my mistake disregard my previous chart...!!!!!!! I should take more care next time.



If you continue your trendline from wave c to wave 2 right through you will see the market bounced of this earlier in the week. 
If you change your C to a A and your 5 to a B we have a very different picture... 
Cheers


----------



## PennD (28 August 2015)

gartley said:


> Anything is possible. We are only dealing with probabilities!!!
> 
> But if I take the following updated 1hr and 8hr cycles analysis and price projections at face value they suggest rally maybe a fraction more tomorrow morning to finish wave A, then pullback for a few days to finish B and then rally to wave C at price projection of 5380-5400. A better projection can be made a little later, but the 8hr bar cycle charts as can be seen suggest further upside later on, but the best part of the rally came today.
> 
> The market broke below and closed below important market structure at 5400. I think it's gonna be hard to get anywhere significant back above at least in the near term and IF we get near that level THEN maybe another shorting opportunity.




Hi Gartley.. would you be do kind to give me some insight on how to read your charts and where you are getting your projections from. I have never seen this method? Thank you ☺


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## Triathlete (28 August 2015)

PennD said:


> If you continue your trendline from wave c to wave 2 right through you will see the market bounced of this earlier in the week.If you change your C to a A and *your 5 to a B* we have a very different picture...
> Cheers





I will take another look at the chart....The reason for marking the wave 5 the way I had was the fact it was the top of the market...so to me that would be a five and then we went into a 3 wave abc corrective phase???


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## gartley (28 August 2015)

PennD said:


> Hi Gartley.. would you be do kind to give me some insight on how to read your charts and where you are getting your projections from. I have never seen this method? Thank you ☺




Hello PennD. It's cycles based and if you read through some of my earlier posts it's explained there. Yes you will never have seen this method because it's my own work and it's about 10 years in the making


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## PennD (28 August 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I will take another look at the chart....The reason for marking the wave 5 the way I had was the fact it was the top of the market...so to me that would be a five and then we went into a 3 wave abc corrective phase???





Sorry mate.. it appears i was half asleep also ☺
I'll try that again... abc down from the high is A, replace the 3 with a B and we have just entered C down to new lows??? Time will tell


----------



## Porper (28 August 2015)

PennD said:


> If you continue your trendline from wave c to wave 2 right through you will see the market bounced of this earlier in the week.
> If you change your C to a A and your 5 to a B we have a very different picture...
> Cheers




Yes, a very different picture then. 

The banks are making good patterns but same thing...as in wave-4 getting very close to hitting wave-1 high, thus invalidating the case for a longer term 5-wave movement if recent lows penetrated. On a knife edge!!


----------



## gartley (28 August 2015)

Porper said:


> Yes, a very different picture then.
> 
> The banks are making good patterns but same thing...as in wave-4 getting very close to hitting wave-1 high, thus invalidating the case for a longer term 5-wave movement if recent lows penetrated. On a knife edge!!




That's why it's so important to have the alternate counts when applying EW. The only other way is to use other means to quantify you prime count validity. Right now using a cycles based approach I can tell with high probability we will finish next month lower on a closing price basis than this month.


----------



## Porper (28 August 2015)

gartley said:


> That's why it's so important to have the alternate counts when applying EW. The only other way is to use other means to quantify you prime count validity. Right now using a cycles based approach I can tell with high probability we will finish next month lower on a closing price basis than this month.




Alternate counts are a must, I agree...but wave counts still have to be made correctly otherwise they mean nothing.

Time analysis also extremely important. I use Robert Miner's teachings. For example static time counts, trend vibration, time retracements etc. None work well as standalone methods i.m.o but when different techniques align (areas of confluence) a reaction at the projection usually follows.


----------



## PennD (28 August 2015)

gartley said:


> Hello PennD. It's cycles based and if you read through some of my earlier posts it's explained there. Yes you will never have seen this method because it's my own work and it's about 10 years in the making




Thank you... i will have a look through this weekend ☺


----------



## Logique (1 September 2015)

Looks like a lower high may be forming in the XAO today.  Futures not looking so hot, so far anyway. 

Tonight will be interesting in the US, the DJIA is threatening to fall below an important support level -16,500.


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## shouldaindex (1 September 2015)

It's interesting to see the Shanghai as the epicentre rather than the Dow.

ASX dropped 40 points on open, 30 points on Shanghai open, and 40 points after RBA.


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## PennD (2 September 2015)

Going to test last weeks lows before a multy week rally?


----------



## wayneL (2 September 2015)

PennD said:


> Going to test last weeks lows before a multy week rally?




Only if you hold the chart upside down.


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## Logique (2 September 2015)

Seasonal chart of US market months.  From Hulbert Financial Digest, reproduced in article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-is-the-cruelest-month-for-your-stocks-or-is-it-2015-09-01

The article actually seeks to debunk the idea of Sept as a regularly poor month. Certainly August wasn't the strongish month depicted in the chart.



> Opinion: September is the cruelest month for your stocks — or is it?
> By Mark Hulbert - Published: Sept 1, 2015
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-is-the-cruelest-month-for-your-stocks-or-is-it-2015-09-01
> ...


----------



## PennD (2 September 2015)

wayneL said:


> Only if you hold the chart upside down.




Whats that supposed to mean?
Are you calling down for sept?


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## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

GDP Growth for Q2 = 0.2%

All it takes is for that to go down -0.3% further for Q3 and Q4 and that's a recession.

Canada and Brazil already in theirs as other big exporters to China.


----------



## nulla nulla (2 September 2015)

I thought May was usually touted as the worst month. Hence, "In May, stay away".


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## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

May to October has made 1% on average since 1985.


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## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

Amazing watching the past 2 weeks, the XAO now moves with the Shanghai Index.  And so does the Hang Seng and Dow Jones, then it all starts at 11:30am the next day.

XAO and Hang Seng just made a sharp 1% rally in about 30 minutes on the back of Shanghai Index doing the same.


----------



## PinguPingu (2 September 2015)

So far looks like a near identical day to last Wednesday


----------



## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

I know a few TA and FA who have the 4600-4700 zone as a potential support for a further lows.

I've worked out based on similar gradient from April to August, we'd be looking at about mid-late October.


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## Logique (2 September 2015)

I hope this guy is wrong, 18 months to 3yrs, imagine it! My bolds under.



> David Dredge of global hedge fund Fortress:
> http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...-the-works-20150901-gjcoge.html#ixzz3kZT0YwMt
> 
> ...Singapore-based Dredge says the current volatility in financial markets *is in the early stage* as markets react to a *correction of global imbalances* that will last *from 18 months to three years*....
> ...


----------



## Porper (2 September 2015)

Logique said:


> I hope this guy is wrong, 18 months to 3yrs, imagine it! My bolds under.




It's interesting that more and more analyst's are getting very bearish all of a sudden. Just remember that major crashes almost always occur when everybody is extremely bullish and confident that all is well. We are nowhere near those extremes in my view. A decent correction for U.S indices would be healthy and set up the next major leg higher.


----------



## PennD (2 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Amazing watching the past 2 weeks, the XAO now moves with the Shanghai Index.  And so does the Hang Seng and Dow Jones, then it all starts at 11:30am the next day.
> 
> XAO and Hang Seng just made a sharp 1% rally in about 30 minutes on the back of Shanghai Index doing the same.




Good point. We are yet to see if that is a good thing or bad thing though. Maybe it will be China that drags the world down with it. Makes sense as we are all so interdependent.corn:…………………………...


"Just remember that major crashes almost always occur when everybody is extremely bullish and confident that all is well."

Like China a few months ago.


----------



## sinner (2 September 2015)

Porper said:


> It's interesting that more and more analyst's are getting very bearish all of a sudden. Just remember that major crashes almost always occur when everybody is extremely bullish and confident that all is well. We are nowhere near those extremes in my view.




Sentiment is important, you're correct there. Also spot on that overbullish sentiment is where trouble often lies.

But we were already there. Overvalued, overbought, overbullish. Last year, earlier this year. 

I don't really think the current sentiment counts as overbearish.

What you should be looking for is a meaningful shift in investor risk preferences (as proxied by breadth, credit spreads, industrial commodities, etc) towards positive. If that's coupled with a significantly overbearish sentiment, so much the better for you. Just as in the same way that investor risk preferences started shifting negative in mid 2014 while sentiment was significantly overbullish.

Right now, all the proxies for investor risk preferences that I track are signalling continuation of the current regime. What this means for the AU indices is not crystal clear, but if I had to make a forecast it would be: expect volatility.



> A decent correction for U.S indices would be healthy and set up the next major leg higher.




The problem for the US indices is that by every valuation measure which has had a good track record of predicting long term returns, there is significant overvaluation there, with mean reversion in these measures implying 50% declines just to get to "fair value". To get to the valuations that correspond with 10% per annum long term future returns we would have to go a lot lower than 50%!
Coupled with this, corporate profit margins are running near all time highs (nowhere to go but down) and forecasts for long term growth in the global economy do not look great. 

In that sense, I agree that a correction would be healthy to clear some of those syndromes up. But realistically, a new move higher unbacked by meaningful economic expansion is just going to return us to the same overvalued and overbought regime we were in not so long ago. 
My  is that short of hyperinflation (actually an outcome I assign a higher probability to than most), the price in 10y from now of the S&P500 will be pretty much the same as it is today, so new highs made in the short term are unlikely to be sustained.


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## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

I have seen those forecast returns based on Shiller PE, Market/GDP Ratio and a few others.  

They definately aren't pretty. 

Consider the possibility we're in a 15-20 year secular bear, it would only take for this leg to fall over.


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## PennD (2 September 2015)

:iagree: What he said


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## PennD (2 September 2015)

:iagree: What Sinner said


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## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

0.2% Quarterly GDP hasn't been priced into the ASX yet.  Gained about 80 points once it was announced even.


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## CanOz (2 September 2015)

My SPI zones....


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## shouldaindex (2 September 2015)

Shanghai Market doesn't open again until Monday, so there's some clear air for the ASX / Hang Seng (2 days) and Europe / Dow Jones (3 nights).

If you're bullish, you'd want to see 2% to 3% made over this period, because if not then, when?


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## PennD (3 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Shanghai Market doesn't open again until Monday, so there's some clear air for the ASX / Hang Seng (2 days) and Europe / Dow Jones (3 nights).
> 
> If you're bullish, you'd want to see 2% to 3% made over this period, because if not then, when?





Maybe markets will be a bit scared. Whats china gunna do? Whats china gunna do? Pull back the next couple of days then china opens up (green) on monday and we get a relief rally???


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## MrBurns (3 September 2015)

When the trade deficit sinks in we're in for it, and Hockey says "no recession" so it's already here.

Hope I'm wrong.


----------



## adam01 (3 September 2015)

MrBurns said:


> When the trade deficit sinks in we're in for it, and Hockey says "no recession" so it's already here.
> 
> Hope I'm wrong.




Post on AE


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## MrBurns (3 September 2015)

adam01 said:


> Post on AE





Hahaha imagine seeing you here....welcome


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## sinner (3 September 2015)

Intraday chart for the ASX looks pretty sickly, especially compared to timezone peers. Smells like trouble ahead.

EDIT:

oops sorry forgot the chart. I read it as markdown, followed by a consolidation, with the higher probability being towards continuation than reversal:


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## CanOz (3 September 2015)

Yeah, nice big rotation back...5000 gets tested before the close?


----------



## Porper (3 September 2015)

sinner said:


> Intraday chart for the ASX looks pretty sickly, especially compared to timezone peers. Smells like trouble ahead.
> 
> EDIT:
> 
> ...




It's the banks that are suffering. They are at critical junctures in regard to the larger degree patterns. If those larger bullish patterns break down then all is not going to be good...to say the least.


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## shouldaindex (3 September 2015)

2% lead from U.S, Shanghai/Hang Seng closed, and we had a 120 point intraday swing down.  If not now, when?

It seems the domestic figures of GDP and retail sales were the driving force today in the absence of other markets.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> 2% lead from U.S, Shanghai/Hang Seng closed, and we had a 120 point intraday swing down.  If not now, when?
> 
> It seems the domestic figures of GDP and retail sales were the driving force today in the absence of other markets.



Yes very disappointed today. Buy traders are getting chopped up sick like. Anyone still holding Index from the 24 - 25th last month lows?


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## PinguPingu (4 September 2015)

Feels like hanging by the fingertips on a cliff!


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## shouldaindex (4 September 2015)

5050 is key, it's 15% from peak.




Fed speech and jobs report Friday night and Shanghai back Monday morning, so looks to be the 3rd very interesting start of week next Monday.


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## tinhat (5 September 2015)

sinner said:


> Right now, all the proxies for investor risk preferences that I track are signalling continuation of the current regime. What this means for the AU indices is not crystal clear, but if I had to make a forecast it would be: expect volatility.




Can you describe the key indicators you use?


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## MrBurns (5 September 2015)

I've lost a bundle over the last 3 weeks but I see little point in selling, just leave them there even if it takes years to recover. 
VAS and BEN are the main culprits.


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## rimtas (5 September 2015)

MrBurns said:


> , just leave them there even if it takes years to recover.





If you knew where the bottom would be, and what is current location in banks, would you still consider keeping them until they recover?


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## MrBurns (5 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> If you knew where the bottom would be, and what is current location in banks, would you still consider keeping them until they recover?




BEN has specific problems of it's own I think, as I found out too late.

If the banks decline as you say, then VAS in in for more declines as well.

I'm not happy to write $30k off so I'll just sit tight.


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## gartley (6 September 2015)

Just some thoughts for the market on Monday. A move lower early on to 4900-4950 and then we have the possibility of a short term bullish Gartley setup and bounce, the ratios are almost textbook.  This is supported by short term cycles analysis and as such would offer a good R/R with a stop at the previous low of the capitulation we had a few weeks ago.

Cheers


----------



## PennD (6 September 2015)

gartley said:


> Just some thoughts for the market on Monday. A move lower early on to 4900-4950 and then we have the possibility of a short term bullish Gartley setup and bounce, the ratios are almost textbook.  This is supported by short term cycles analysis and as such would offer a good R/R with a stop at the previous low of the capitulation we had a few weeks ago.
> 
> Cheers




Yep... rally with china on their open. I'm looking to the 23rd before big plunge busting this multi year trendline (2009) from mars into nothing but thin air  a lot can happen in 3 weeks though...
http://screencast.com/t/RQ8Nb6s2HH

Ps..Still learning how to post charts/pictures, hence the link.


----------



## Porper (6 September 2015)

gartley said:


> Just some thoughts for the market on Monday. A move lower early on to 4900-4950 and then we have the possibility of a short term bullish Gartley setup and bounce, the ratios are almost textbook.  This is supported by short term cycles analysis and as such would offer a good R/R with a stop at the previous low of the capitulation we had a few weeks ago.
> 
> Cheers




Nice pick up although I don't personally trade the Gartley. I do trade the Butterfly though which is what I'll be looking out for. A similar pattern but it does mean recent lows will need to be breached by a small margin. Should this occur we may well have bullish divergence in place as well. Just a possibility at this stage but it would be interesting as a break down through the August lows will trigger bearish signals for 95% of traders. Most will then be looking to short. So will I unless the Butterfly coincides with divergence.


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## CanOz (6 September 2015)

Interesting to see a few bulls around, with my short term bullish view on the Xina50, it's got me wondering how correlated the SPI has been with the Xina50 on the daily.....however with the wife sick, me off the bench as no.1 parent, I can't see me getting any work done today


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## rimtas (6 September 2015)

The breach of 24th lows will put the end of the long term bull market. Even by the slightest margin. And most likely it confirms that Wave C is in the works. Wave c is the same as third wave, so to anticipate bullish days would be stupid. Most likely it then produces Primary degree Point of Recognition, with Daily market decline of around -10%(optimistically), and will never recovers to this level until the bottom is reached.
 Sharp rebound which was sported in the previous week most likely was the last second wave of the smaller degree.

If Gartley's scenario will work out, it would be no surprise, as a 3-3-5  flat correction  will develop, with the last five wave move up to complete last second wave. But it should start rising on Monday, as later and deeper subdivisions will not allow this scenario.  But why market would want to keep things still afloat for so long? Maybe one reason is that it wants to take on board as much people as possible before the Primary Degree Point of Recognition, because markets are doing what they are supposed to be doing: inflicting the most pain on the most number of people. 

One more thing to consider during Third waves is that all strategies, analysis, cycles, oscilators, gartleys, buterflys and everything else simply stops working. You can point finger to the cycle, gartley or any oscillator that shows bottom, and it will be smashed. The only way that works here is the  Wave Principle. And during those times it shows at it's best-subdivisions are the clearest in fast moving and emotional markets.
Which only proves that all other market analysis are just derivatives of the Wave Principle, not additions to it. I am looking forward to this point when people start to stop forecasting on their usuall methods that "worked" before, because they stop thrusting them after a few textbook setups which were busted by the market.


----------



## gartley (6 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> One more thing to consider during Third waves is that all strategies, analysis, cycles, oscilators, gartleys, buterflys and everything else simply stops working. You can point finger to the cycle, gartley or any oscillator that shows bottom, and it will be smashed. The only way that works here is the  Wave Principle. And during those times it shows at it's best-subdivisions are the clearest in fast moving and emotional markets.
> Which only proves that all other market analysis are just derivatives of the Wave Principle, not additions to it. I am looking forward to this point when people start to stop forecasting on their usuall methods that "worked" before, because they stop thrusting them after a few textbook setups which were busted by the market.




Ohhhh no..... Here we go again........


----------



## >Apocalypto< (7 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> The breach of 24th lows will put the end of the long term bull market. Even by the slightest margin. And most likely it confirms that Wave C is in the works. Wave c is the same as third wave, so to anticipate bullish days would be stupid. Most likely it then produces Primary degree Point of Recognition, with Daily market decline of around -10%(optimistically), and will never recovers to this level until the bottom is reached.
> Sharp rebound which was sported in the previous week most likely was the last second wave of the smaller degree.
> 
> If Gartley's scenario will work out, it would be no surprise, as a 3-3-5  flat correction  will develop, with the last five wave move up to complete last second wave. But it should start rising on Monday, as later and deeper subdivisions will not allow this scenario.  But why market would want to keep things still afloat for so long? Maybe one reason is that it wants to take on board as much people as possible before the Primary Degree Point of Recognition, because markets are doing what they are supposed to be doing: inflicting the most pain on the most number of people.
> ...




so that means your trading has made you multimillionaire by now... by the sounds of it nothing works apart from what you do. 

nothing is perfect inc wave


----------



## shouldaindex (7 September 2015)

Just had a read of the online news tonight, and the Recession narrative has begun, few big articles playing up it's chances.  Even heard family members bringing it up this weekend.  Sentiment is well and truely in the bear / fear phase now.  Amazing how it's all happened in about 3 weeks.


----------



## cynic (7 September 2015)

gartley said:


> Ohhhh no..... Here we go again........




Oohhh no. Woe betide those heathen pagans that dare to commit acts of blasphemy against the one and only prophet of the only truly prescient and infallible God of technical analysis - Elliot be his hallowed name!


----------



## Porper (7 September 2015)

cynic said:


> Oohhh no. Woe betide those heathen pagans that dare to commit acts of blasphemy against the one and only prophet of the only truly prescient and infallible God of technical analysis - Elliot be his hallowed name!




I am not sure why Elliott Wave attracts obsessive people but taking a look back at some old posts shows that there have been a few over the years. They tend to come and go and I suspect our latest disciple of the theory will do exactly the same when he realises that most on here are not going to be brainwashed.  Fanaticism comes to mind.

It is a shame as I am a great advocate of Elliott Wave but like most who use it, we also realise that it isn't the holy grail and is better used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools.


----------



## sinner (7 September 2015)

tinhat said:


> Can you describe the key indicators you use?




They are mentioned in the post you quoted.


----------



## shouldaindex (7 September 2015)

Interesting to see Shanghai, Hang Seng, Nikkei all up.   US, Europe Futures up.

XAO slightly down, does look like the recession narrative in the papers today is keeping a lid on things.

Wonder if there will be a late run.


----------



## rimtas (7 September 2015)

>Apocalypto< said:


> by the sounds of it nothing works apart from what you do.



 The discussion was about Third wave, where everything stops working. At the times where market is not in a Third wave(or C), there appears there are many other methods that looks like they are "working" . You can see gartley, you can see butterfly, you can see elephant or snake(depends on what you smoke), but everyone who has eyes can tell that market moves in waves. 

During a crash(up or down, doesn't matter) all butterflies are flying away, gartley disappear, snakes gets underwater and RSI (and the likes) are stabbing their heads in sand. But waves  are still present. Whether you understand them or not is the different question.

Elliot was looser, by the way. Like Porper, who is saying prayers every morning by looking at his photo.


----------



## gartley (7 September 2015)

Firstly let's look at a bit of history Rimtas.

HM Gartley was a floor trader and was in the business a good 20 years before Elliott started looking at the stock market. The pattern Gartley talks about on page 222 of his manual I personally like because it offers good risk/reward characteristics. 
The beauty of these patterns is that they are best used as set ups at the peak of counter trend moves within a larger trend. And if you are going to be any good at this business you need to position in the direction of the one larger trend  at the end of counter trend moves because it offers the best R/R.

*It doesn't  work ALL the time but then again nothing else does either.* 
There are many other variations of this pattern such as crab, butterfly, AB=CD, bat, cypher, 3 drives to a top, shark, 5-0 etc to name a few.

In so far as cycles analysis, Gartley patterns and other analysis being derivatives of EWT that is pure *nonsense.*
Example: What do Fast Fourier Transforms and cycle decompositions have to do with Elliott Wave???
A big fat ZERO!!!
They are derived from a price series.....  
So cycles don't work in a 3rd wave huh???   *Multiple cycles coming together ARE the 3rd wave! *

Elliott Waves Analysis is ambiguous. If you don't quantify your wave counts and know which is the highest probability wave count then most likely you are guessing and may as well toss a coin...

You may say that you will know by INVALIDATING a wave count because of violation of price structure. GREAT!! But that in itself is lag and you may as well use the same lagging technical indicators you are bagging))))


----------



## rimtas (7 September 2015)

gartley said:


> What do Fast Fourier Transforms and cycle decompositions have to do with Elliott Wave???





And the answer is....



gartley said:


> They are derived from a price series.....





Anything that is derived from price and time series basically is derived from Wave Principle, because constantly changing price moving in time creates waves.
 You can use those two parameters to create thousands, if not millions of indicators and trading methods, but the underlying principle remains the same. Why bother yourself with anything that is an "outsider", when you can work with main method directly? It is rhetorical, no need to answer.


----------



## gartley (7 September 2015)

Assuming you are correct Rimtas do you think you have any more of an edge than anybody else using Elliott Wave??

Because from what I have seen of Elliotticians even on this site that is not the case. And if the best Elliott gurus like Prechter have got wrong repeatedly for the last 25 years then what hope do you have?
Why bother with anthing else you say? The best traders at EWI Jim Martens and Jeffrey Kennedy swear by other indicators and analysis to compliment EWT


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## gartley (7 September 2015)

Some weeks ago the cycles projection suggested a rally in the indices that would carry into September. Since then the lows have not been breached in the XAO although have had a very strong re test the last few days.

I am looking at some other indices and in particular the DAX. Attached cycles analysis of 8hr bars suggest another leg up to new recovery highs. This also makes sense with a possible developing elliott wave zig zag pattern with contracting triangle wave b.
If so our index has a good chance of getting a boost for the rest of this week and next week.

*IF* this does develop, then it may set up nicely for another in some weeks especially if our index can get back above 5400


----------



## Porper (8 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Elliot was looser, by the way. Like Porper, who is saying prayers every morning by looking at his photo.




Rimtas is just playing around i.m.o. He has admitted some of his posts have been for "effect", i.e he is just trying to get a response. Although he tends to use this excuse when one of his many predictions goes wrong.

He claims to be an Elliottician and then posts above that Elliott was a loser...or as he put it "a looser". He doesn't post during the day so obviously has a job...or goes to school; point being he can't be that profitable as he doesn't trade for a living. My last post on the subject, let's just get back onto the XAO.


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## shouldaindex (8 September 2015)

XAO has liked it's 5050 and 5100 for the past week.

Had many reasons to close lower (Shanghai, Hang Seng, Dow Jones, Fed, China, GDP) but didn't.

Just wondering if we need a bit of a bull trap for a while.


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## gartley (8 September 2015)

Agree totally Porper.  

 I will not involve myself either with it.  Unless it’s something new and unique about the application of EW that helps build a case for high probability trading setups then it’s worth looking into it further. There is nothing new here,   same old, same old…….

Who cares if something is a derivative or not of EW.   The bottom line is how we can best use a method or various methods together to give us an edge and make some bucks…….


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## rimtas (8 September 2015)

gartley said:


> Assuming you are correct Rimtas do you think you have any more of an edge than anybody else using Elliott Wave??




No, I didn't said that. If one has been in markets for a long time, even without knowing what EW is they can develop a good sense about market behaviour. Because EW patterns and waves repeat and repeat, are always the same, one  develops an  instinct to grasp waves and their tendencies.  
In regards to your previous comment about gartley being discovered 20 y ahead of EW, I can reply just like this-things that are not yet discovered, still exists. Waves in markets (and overall) existed as long as history extends.

Also, my explanation about Elliott why he was a looser-because he saw things, but never attempted to use them in his own benefit. He died poor and alone. Thus he was a looser. 

And of course I can't say anything wrong about Prechter. He predicted sucsessfully many markets to this day(basically all of them-commodities, bonds, metals, curencies), except stock market.  But even in stock market he pointed out how extreme bearish underlying things are, that are far away from current market valuation, making this 2009-15 rally a bear wave. While the rest of the world just baited on a new bull, that will last for decades. You need to dig deep to understand relationships between all the groups. This would not be possible without knowledge of Wave Principle and the underlying socionomic factors.



And reply to Porper-I do not see anything wrong with having a full time job. You will live longer compared to the lifestyle if you spend 10h near the screen every day. There is a phase in life where you inevitably go living from your investments, but this can't be reached from a daytrading perspective.  First you need to aquire enough capital, and sure way to do this is not to day trade.  Everyone who thinks that he can live from daytrading is living in a dream.


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## gartley (8 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Everyone who thinks that he can live from daytrading is living in a dream.




Well myself and others here must be living a dream then........ and also proof that you are wrong.

Actually I  liked my job of 30 years in the auto industry until Mr Abbott hammered the final nails of it's coffin.
I have traded profitably every year since 2004. The only reason I trade full time now is because I am 50 and it's harder to find work.
Since starting this, I set a realistic goal with the funds at my disposal to replace my income which was done. 
In my opinion in order to make it work, perserverance and treating it like a business is imperative. Even if one is a break even trader for a long time, the best they can do is "keep going" because they are most likely nearly there with  some fine tuning of their strategies. 

On the plus side if one is able to derive an income from this business it does give you one important benefit and that is "freedom of time" compared to the average worker.


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## rimtas (8 September 2015)

Yea, sounds like a true story, grabing everyone to the heart... Sometimes what is not achievable in life can be achievable in a virtual reality, facebook, ASF-everyone is now up to the life that is imaginary, but when repeated for a long time and got aproved from other people, it sounds like real reality.  Everyone thinks that making money in markets is easy, and almost everyone is "trading for a living". Quit your job, take your savings to the market and the future is bright.

Well, my brother was a CEO of a big Scandinavian investment bank in Europe, so I got a chance to see clients trading statistics. There were none trading constantly profitable, no matter where markets were heading. And the broker who takes on the calls for orders described most of the traders like this: " Near the tops, they are all investors, Near the bottoms, they are all traders". 
Happy dreaming.


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## cynic (8 September 2015)

*Re: XAO Banter Threa*

FTSE I'm good. I am just so FTSEing good that anything anyone else can do, I can do FTSEing better! 

Whenever I find myself incapable, it simply means that the task must be impossible, because nobody could possibly do anything better than I, because I know that I am so FTSEing good!

Anybody claiming otherwise must be FTSEing dreaming!!


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## rimtas (8 September 2015)

I still remember one trader, who constantly was showing his statements over the 5 years, and he was profitable. He was posting his trades even during night time(he traded FX), and he said that the first thing when he gets up in the morning is not to go  to the toilet, but to the laptop to check quotes. He was overhauled my market. 

But one day there was  a massive movement against him and somehow he was caught, geting an MC. He tried to recover later from -90% drop, but admitted that his 5 year work was busted. Sleepless nights, family life, health, everything was ruined due to the confidence he developed and allowed himself to take bigger risks in his MM. Since then he disappeared from the forums. 
Overconfident day traders always ends up like this-one day will be crucial. You can go on for years, but just start to relax and market will kick your ass.


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## cynic (8 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> I still remember one trader, who constantly was showing his statements over the 5 years, and he was profitable. He was posting his trades even during night time(he traded FX), and he said that the first thing when he gets up in the morning is not to go  to the toilet, but to the laptop to check quotes. He was overhauled my market.
> 
> But one day there was  a massive movement against him and somehow he was caught, geting an MC. He tried to recover later from -90% drop, but admitted that his 5 year work was busted. Sleepless nights, family life, health, everything was ruined due to the confidence he developed and allowed himself to take bigger risks in his MM. Since then he disappeared from the forums.
> Overconfident day traders always ends up like this-one day will be crucial. You can go on for years, but just start to relax and market will kick your ass.




From what you're describing, the failure resulted from loss of discipline and was otherwise unrelated to the trader's choice of timeframe.


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## shouldaindex (8 September 2015)

Be interest to know if anyone thinks 5050 will support for the rest of year?


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## cynic (9 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Be interest to know if anyone thinks 5050 will support for the rest of year?




Maybe yes, maybe no. I'm fifty fifty on this one at the moment but would rather view it with twenty twenty hindsight.


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## Tightwad (9 September 2015)

5150.. OU812...1984..


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## Logique (9 September 2015)

Textbook setup for short term trading - in a Bull market you'd be loading up on the long side.

Interesting pattern development too, is it a flag, is it a down sloping wedge, or neither...

My hat's off to anyone with the bravura to to trade this, but plenty are, up above 5200 this morning.


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## PennD (9 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> I still remember one trader, who constantly was showing his statements over the 5 years, and he was profitable. He was posting his trades even during night time(he traded FX), and he said that the first thing when he gets up in the morning is not to go  to the toilet, but to the laptop to check quotes. He was overhauled my market.
> 
> But one day there was  a massive movement against him and somehow he was caught, geting an MC. He tried to recover later from -90% drop, but admitted that his 5 year work was busted. Sleepless nights, family life, health, everything was ruined due to the confidence he developed and allowed himself to take bigger risks in his MM. Since then he disappeared from the forums.
> Overconfident day traders always ends up like this-one day will be crucial. You can go on for years, but just start to relax and market will kick your ass.




Dood, that could be said for any profession. How many builders have i seen over the years going really well, over extend, then get caught out only to be left bankrupt?
Your fear mungering...


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## shouldaindex (9 September 2015)

Just a bit of a mischievous comparison to 2011:


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## shouldaindex (9 September 2015)

First day I've read bull sentiment on social media.

Just going through the phases now, playing out a bit of time. 

Result to me seems inevitable but could be wrong.


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## Wysiwyg (11 September 2015)

I reckon this volatility will be wearing traders and investors out. Disappointing to see shares rise sharply and fall back the next day on a regular basis. The consensus being market down.


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## shouldaindex (11 September 2015)

Trend lines suggest plenty of time before we hit support or resistance.  

I'd say by late October we'll either be testing 4700 (or less likely 5400) as they fit nicely from April.


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## Wysiwyg (15 September 2015)

So everyone ready to dump en masse after Planet America raises interest rates or is a slow release the Australian way?


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## gartley (15 September 2015)

In post #1906 September 7 we looked at the DAX as cycles suggested higher prices to come. We had a big rally on Wednesday and since the index has failed to make new lows and the pattern continues to build. 
Nothing has changed  (see cycles attached) and the 3 daily cycles have clearly bottomed and are pointed up. As such any further downside should be limited  as prices have already reached an extreme relative to the nominal trend. That is not to say that they can't go lower as cycles lows don't always coincide with price lows. However historically on the chart prices nearly always revert back to the nominal level and beyond after reaching an extreme, so it's a higher probability that prices will move to higher levels before the larger trend down starts again.
The same can be said for the SP500.  Although we had a big move down in the XAO today I suspect if we use the other indices as guide it should follow, nevertheless taking the cycles analysis at face value the cycles are pointed up.


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## rimtas (15 September 2015)

Your cycles are nothing more than Bolinger Bands. Or just standard deviations. 
They do not operate when market is in a third wave, you should know this. You said you are always missing third ones-that is the reason why, you smoke too much cycles..
 Try to fit you cycles into this one...


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## rimtas (15 September 2015)

Here is a chart with other type of so called "cycles", 
Bolinger Bands are neutral, but will shift in any direction depending on price action. 
10 period Standart Deviation is pointing for sharp upward move (meaning prices down). Can stay a few days on the line, but volatility is coming for sure from here, and all surprises are in a direction of a trend, not against it, like Prechter anticipated in 2010, and Gartley in 2015.


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## rimtas (15 September 2015)

Weekly STD suggest that the upcoming decline in prices will be so devastating, that STD will surpass 2009 high(in yellow). Just look how strong it is right now-market 3weeks is drifting sideways, but is unable to rally. Turnbull will change his name to Turnbear after this crash, I am pretty sure.


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## gartley (16 September 2015)

Special note re post #1926.

Trading Bands in upper panes of charts are *not* Bollinger Bands.  Bollinger bands have the following characteristics :
1: They are lagging  
2: Bands are price std deviations away from a moving average 
3. They appear more effective in sideways markets compared to strongly trending markets. In strongly trending markets price has a tendency to hug the envelope making it less effective. 
4. There is no cyclical information in Bollinger bands apart from the moving average line, the period of which represents the sum of all the cycles below the period length.

In comparison what I attached has:
1: No lag and is forward looking. Looking closely you will see pink nominal level is in phase with price.  As such it has *forward* looking capabilities especially when price reaches extremes of outer bands.
2. Trading Bands are *not* Std deviations of *price from a moving average. * but they are of something else.
3. There is cyclical information available from the 3  cycle decompositions in the panes below which greatly aid in making forward looking analysis available with high probability as has been the case previously ans given last nights moves in the indices looks like it might work out as expected.

With reference to the criticism of my picture by the earlier poster, it's totally irrelevant to the topic of this thread and I please ask the moderators to step in and put an end to this.


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## Porper (16 September 2015)

gartley said:


> With reference to the criticism of my picture by the earlier poster, it's totally irrelevant to the topic of this thread and I please ask the moderators to step in and put an end to this.




Agree, getting ridiculous now...not just on this thread either.


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## Joe Blow (16 September 2015)

Criticism is acceptable as long as it has some kind of reasonable basis and is intended to be constructive rather than malicious. I agree that in this case it had a more spiteful tone to it, which is unfortunate. 

I trust that from this point on any personal animosity can be put to one side for the sake of the discussion and we can move forward in a constructive way.


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## rimtas (16 September 2015)

gartley said:


> 2. Trading Bands are *not* Std deviations of *price from a moving average. * but they are of something else.




This is a key phrase. Just something else. 
What is that something else? How it is generated?


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## rimtas (16 September 2015)

Looks clear to me that Joe Blow is the captain of the crew which consists of Porper and the like. Attacks from numerous commentators to my front carry defence only from me alone, but attacks from my guns just shakes everyone.  They just fire their small pistols all the time and when the big bullet comes back  from me they just go to cry to dady. 
Looks like ASF has been in a dream state  for a while and I will shake it to the ground. Enough licking each others asses. If one said something the rest just goes like echoes. 

A message for mods and site owners:
I made a few other socionomic experiments on other forums like this in other countires.  In the end, they all ended up with increased attendance, which turned out to increased asvertisement, and thus for a bigger profits for a site. Just stop and think about this for a moment before judging me. 
Cheers.


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## Joe Blow (16 September 2015)

Rimtas, the same request was made of you that was made of everyone else: no insults, no personal attacks, engage in civil and constructive discussion and debate. It applies universally to all at ASF. Always has and always will.

I do not wish to sidetrack this thread any further, so if everyone could get back to discussing the topic at hand that would be appreciated.


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## Bill M (17 September 2015)

As this is the XAO Banter thread I will throw in my plan and  worth.

Last year when we had higher levels on the XAO I cashed in a lot of my stocks mostly because I was closing down one super fund and going into another. I also took good profits off the table and crystallised them and banked the cash. 

Then I established the new super fund and placed all my cash in there. The markets were quite toppy, I thought the DOW in particular was overvalued (over 18,000), low dividends and a lot of hoo ha about it climbing higher, I didn't buy it. The XAO was also up around 5,900 points after a good run. Nothing else but my own observations told me that was not the time to get set in stocks.

Now the XAO has corrected 15% and I have started buying. I buy high dividend ETF's that hold ASX stocks. All of these ETF's are going in my super fund. These ETF's go up and down with the XAO (approximately that is). I do not know when nor where bottom will be but right now at these low levels these ETF's are paying me 6 to 8% partly franked distributions. To me that is extremely good returns.

As I can not know where the market bottoms I have a strategy of straggling my buys. IE. I will buy 6 parcels of stocks over a period of time until I have exhausted the amount that I want to invest. I've bought 2 parcels  at 5,100 levels already.

It is important to note, I am buying my stocks for my super fund for the super long term period. Read that as never to sell. It will bought to provide me income for the rest of my life within my super fund.

There is a good chance that the XJO could slip to 4930 or even worse to 4860, or it could just bounce from here too. At 4930 I will buy another parcel, at 4860 I will buy a further parcel, the re-evaluate. If it races north to 6,000 again I will stand by again. I only buy when the value is there and right now it's coming up to distribution time as well so a further drop for me would be a good thing, cheers.


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## Triathlete (17 September 2015)

Bill M said:


> It is important to note, I am buying my stocks for my super fund for *the super long term period. Read that as never to sell.* It will bought to provide me income for the rest of my life within my super fund.




Hi Bill,
          Everyone has their own strategy and knowone really knows where the market is headed,but if we had another crash like the GFC would you really be comfortable with watching your capital being eroded 60-70%? and possibly dividends being cut in that situation and then waiting years to recover.It has been 8 years already and the market still below where it was before the GFC.

It would make more sense to me anyway to get out of the market while it is going down and preserve your capital and then get back in when the uptrend starts again.


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## Bill M (17 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Hi Bill,
> Everyone has their own strategy and knowone really knows where the market is headed,but if we had another crash like the GFC would you really be comfortable with watching your capital being eroded 60-70%? and possibly dividends being cut in that situation and then waiting years to recover.It has been 8 years already and the market still below where it was before the GFC.
> 
> It would make more sense to me anyway to get out of the market while it is going down and preserve your capital and then get back in when the uptrend starts again.




I've been through it all many times before, been investing in stocks for nearly 30 years. I am quite well cashed up and a 60 to 70% crash won't make any difference to my lifestyle. If that scenario unfolded I would unlock more cash and deploy it in the market just like I did in 2008 and 2009. There is a thread called something like "The good news thread", back in 2009 I clearly outlined 4 buys that I did when the markets crashed 55%, just one off the top of my head was buying CBA at $26. man that was good. Big crashes = big opportunities. Yes we are all different, as I said it is for my super, it is for ever, I do not need the capital, I need the long term returns.


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## notting (17 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> get back in when the uptrend starts again.




Like yesterday?


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## kid hustlr (17 September 2015)

A mix sounds pretty good to me.

A portion of your funds to buy dips looking for income generation

A portion of your funds for trend following

A portion in defensive assets

A portion of overseas exposure.

etc.


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## Triathlete (17 September 2015)

notting said:


> Like yesterday?




Not yet....probably just a bounce still in a downtrend to me...weekly and monthly swing are still down!!


----------



## Triathlete (17 September 2015)

Bill M said:


> I've been through it all many times before, been investing in stocks for nearly 30 years. I am quite well cashed up and *a 60 to 70% crash *won't make any difference to my lifestyle. If that scenario unfolded I would unlock more cash and deploy it in the market just like I did in 2008 and 2009. There is a thread called something like "The good news thread", back in 2009 I clearly outlined 4 buys that I did when the markets crashed 55%, just one off the top of my head was* buying CBA at $26. man that was good. Big crashes = big opportunities*. Yes we are all different, as I said it is for my super, it is for ever, I do not need the capital, I need the *long term returns*.




I see your point Bill....as you mentioned you are after long term returns and surely after making such great returns with your CBA purchase at $26 and growing dividends along the way you surely would not let them drop 60% to 70% if that scenario was to unfold before locking in the profits as you said before..... never to sell...?


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## rimtas (17 September 2015)

Today was the last day to sell, especialy banks. Black Friday follows tomorrow. Goodbye 5000, will see you in the next decade.


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## CanOz (17 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Today was the last day to sell, especialy banks. Black Friday follows tomorrow. Goodbye 5000, will see you in the next decade.






ooooohhhh, BIG CALL!!!

Got yer moola where your pie hole is?


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## shouldaindex (17 September 2015)

The problem with getting out during drawdowns, is that you are more likely to miss out on money than save it.

Let's say you get out when the market has dropped 20% and get back in 6 months later:

Market went up:
1990 +10%
1992 +23%
1994 +6%
1997 +24%
2003 +18%
2011 +7%

Market went down:
2008 -36%

So net result over a 25 year period, is staying in has been significantly better.

(Similar results after 3 / 6 / 12 month periods after a 20% decline, take into account this period was largely a secular bull)


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## Bill M (17 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I see your point Bill....as you mentioned you are after long term returns and surely after making such great returns with your CBA purchase at $26 and growing dividends along the way you surely would not let them drop 60% to 70% if that scenario was to unfold before locking in the profits as you said before..... never to sell...?




I mentioned before that when the DOW was above 18,000 and the XAO 5,900 I liquidated all but one small parcel of NAB. Everything else went to cash as I was restructuring my super fund. I sold CBA and the others a long time ago, some with good profits and others breaking even. Since then all I have been doing is waiting for a decent correction, and I think that correction is here now.

But is it? I don't know and neither does anyone else and you technical guys are way ahead of me and still have widely differing view points. That is why I like reading all your stuff and then the disagreements that follow. I hang off all the posts a good half a dozen of you make and they are very interesting. But with all the wide and different views, in the end no one really knows anything so I revert to doing what I have been doing all my life. That is buying as cheap as I can for the long term. 

To me the XAO is cheap right now, it may get cheaper or it may head north. I am trying to get the best prices I can buy staggering my buys. I am still largely in cash so a drop to 4930 or lower will produce even better prices/dividends. I am drip feeding small amounts in at a time.

People should not underestimate the power of the dividends. In 2 weeks 5 of my ETF's that I hold go ex dividend and they pay well. Those dividends then become another buy parcel for the future, again when I find the market good value. 

You mentioned dividends being chopped during a down turn. During the GFC the dividends were chopped across my portfolio by about 25%, I can handle that as it will still be twice as much as the cash rate.

Maybe I'm coming across as a silly old fool rambling, sorry if I am. I just reckon the XAO is very good value right now and I will continue to drip feed in. The lower it goes the better it is for me to get set.

I am not going to mention any names but during the GFC there were a couple of people who are much smarter than me on this forum who were calling the XAO dropping to 2100 and lower. THEY WERE ALL WRONG, it never happened then and I doubt it will happen now either.


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## Triathlete (17 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> The problem with getting out during drawdowns, is that you are more likely to miss out on money than save it.
> 
> Let's say you get out when the market has dropped 20% and get back in 6 months later:
> 
> ...




That may be correct if you are following the index.....but tell that to WOW shareholders or CBA at the moment who  knows when they recover to there highs again. 

For me it is all about the timing....always has been always will be....!!


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## CanOz (17 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> The problem with getting out during drawdowns, is that you are more likely to miss out on money than save it.
> 
> Let's say you get out when the market has dropped 20% and get back in 6 months later:
> 
> ...




This is flawed logic and sounds like survivor-ship bias. The index you are referring to is constantly reweighed. What do you mean by "stay in", stay in an index ETF?


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## Triathlete (17 September 2015)

Bill M said:


> I mentioned before that when the DOW was above 18,000 and the XAO 5,900 I liquidated all but one small parcel of NAB. Everything else went to cash as I was restructuring my super fund. I sold CBA and the others a long time ago, some with good profits and others breaking even. Since then all I have been doing is waiting for a decent correction, and I think that correction is here now.
> 
> But is it? I don't know and neither does anyone else and you technical guys are way ahead of me and still have widely differing view points. That is why I like reading all your stuff and then the disagreements that follow. I hang off all the posts a good half a dozen of you make and they are very interesting. But with all the wide and different views, in the end no one really knows anything so I revert to doing what I have been doing all my life. That is buying as cheap as I can for the long term.
> 
> ...




Hi Bill,
            If you are happy with your strategy and it is working for you then keep on going with it no one is criticizing you at all, it is all about what works for you the best. 

My point was more about how far do you let your stocks decrease in value before liquidating and keeping those gains of previous years. 

In my own situation I make it a rule to get out after a 15% drop in any stock I may own. I do this because obviously there must be something wrong with the way I have analysed the stock or there may be further concerns within the company that I am not aware of that has caused the drop in share price.

To me it is a red flag so better that I am out protect my capital and ready to fight another day...but that is just how I do it...everyone to there own.


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## Wysiwyg (22 September 2015)

Falling off a cliff again.   Idiots.


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## MrBurns (22 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Hi Bill,
> If you are happy with your strategy and it is working for you then keep on going with it no one is criticizing you at all, it is all about what works for you the best.
> 
> My point was more about how far do you let your stocks decrease in value before liquidating and keeping those gains of previous years.
> ...




I used to do that and it always resulted in losses as the stocks always bounced back so I'm not selling this time no matter how long it takes to recover though this looks bad and it might be years.


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## Trembling Hand (22 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Today was the last day to sell, especialy banks. Black Friday follows tomorrow. Goodbye 5000, will see you in the next decade.




Where is rimtas when there is blood in the streets?


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## shouldaindex (23 September 2015)

China PMI out 11.45AM tomorrow.  Probably swings the market 1-2% depending on result.

Interesting sign was one of the China futures markets lost 3% in 4 hours starting from an hour before close.  Wonder if they know something, or it was just taking risk off the table overnight.


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## Porper (23 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> Where is rimtas when there is blood in the streets?
> 
> View attachment 64408




If he could he'd be spouting from the rooftops I am sure. Not to say a crash is underway but a deeper correction for XJO looking more likely. Support under pressure now though...or it will be today.


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## Triathlete (23 September 2015)

MrBurns said:


> I used to do that and it always resulted in losses as the stocks always bounced back so I'm not selling this time no matter how long it takes to recover though this looks bad and it might be years.




I take your point,but I have managed to stay on the right side of the ledger for now...

The problem I have with holding on to stocks that say lose 20-30% of there value is we may wait as you mentioned many years to recover...which then means we also lose opportunity cost with that money that is still tied up waiting for the recover...but that is just my opinion.


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## MrBurns (23 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I take your point,but I have managed to stay on the right side of the ledger for now...
> 
> The problem I have with holding on to stocks that say lose 20-30% of there value is we may wait as you mentioned many years to recover...which then means we also lose opportunity cost with that money that is still tied up waiting for the recover...but that is just my opinion.




I've got plenty of cash but not keen to gamble much more on the ASX Casino just yet


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## notting (23 September 2015)

Pigging out.
It's a sweet spot.

No inflation, no interest on loans, no profits in cash, oil in the gutter, money everywhere.
Half wits are forking out $1400 for Iphones.
What more do you want!


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## Bill M (24 September 2015)

It seems to me that everytime we hit that 5,000 area on the XAO it just won't break down below and stay there. Like today it starts moving north again. I have not deployed my 4 remaining buy parcels yet, still waiting for lower numbers but they may never come.

I see Rimtas has not been online since the 17th. is he on a forced holiday? I'm missing the banter on the thread.


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## cynic (24 September 2015)

Bill M said:


> ...
> I see Rimtas has not been online since the 17th. is he on a forced holiday? I'm missing the banter on the thread.




I'd been wondering about this myself but wasn't game to ask as I feared I might inadvertently rub salt into wounds.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2015)

Weekly period XAO.


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## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2015)

Hey cynic!


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## cynic (24 September 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hey cynic!



Hey GB !

It's great to see you posting regularly again.

My past 12 months were my worst performance ever and my confidence has been reduced to an all time low, so it's great to have the confidence magician back on deck!

So do your thing GB! Work your magic!!


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## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2015)

cynic said:


> Hey GB !
> 
> It's great to see you posting regularly again.
> 
> ...




I hung out on HC for a while.  Something drew me back to look at speccies again, and HC is the place to be for that sort of thing.   I spent ages trying to create a system for trading the sub 20c companies and came up empty.  Actually, there was one system which looked ok, but it was hard to implement.  

Then I looked at trading sentiment on HC as a contrarian indicator.  I started scraping data and graphing it, but that was useless.  What I really needed to do was scrape key words (pos vs neg).  There's definitely some money to be made there, but sophisticated sentiment analysis  software costs big $$$$.  Mostly it's used by corporations.

In the end I came to the conclusion that the only way I could  profit in that end of the market is by using FA, spreading bets across a big range of stocks and holding long term.  Then you just need one huge winner.  Maybe there's another way, but that was my conclusion.  I didn't want to do that.

So I just went back to my old systems.  

Re: confidence, I wrote something on another thread which might be of interest, possibly.  It was a reply to the guy who seemed to be sabotaging himself.  I've done that myself.


----------



## shouldaindex (24 September 2015)

Hey Gringotts,

Give me a random day between 2 - 5 years ago, and I'll show you the first 50 of something.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Hey Gringotts,
> 
> Give me a random day between 2 - 5 years ago, and I'll show you the first 50 of something.




10-10-2013


----------



## shouldaindex (24 September 2015)

I just went through the search results for that day for the first 50 posts and there were 29 different stocks, these are their returns since:

19 stocks lower
1 stock same
9 stocks higher

16 stocks 40%+ lower
3 stocks 100%+ higher.

So as your own research suggested, from this data set you need at least a double bagger (11% chance) to cancel out the majority (55%) that lose over 40%.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> I just went through the search results for that day for the first 50 posts and there were 29 different stocks, these are their returns since:
> 
> 19 stocks lower
> 1 stock same
> ...




What about if you do the same for Fibo's stocks?


----------



## shouldaindex (24 September 2015)

In XAO observations:




You can see the bottoms marked with black dots.

The following day the XAO made 129 points, 82 points, 77 points, 69 points (today)

So not a surprise, even though no real reason to do so fundamentally. 

These rallies each lasted 3 or 4 days.

Trend is your friend I guess.  

I've been reading TA people say the triangle breakout is due soon though.


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> I just went through the search results for that day for the first 50 posts and there were 29 different stocks, these are their returns since:
> 
> 19 stocks lower
> 1 stock same
> ...




Nah you are thinking wrong. Sometime in the last bull phase I went through every Stock thread and ranked the amount of post to the prices in the next 3 and 6 months.

What I found was once the stock became known and popular, even loved, it was too late. The returns were negative from there. Unfortunately I cannot find the spreadsheet as it was a heap of manual work (which I despise) but the more post the worst the price got.

You need to trade stuff no one talks about and short stuff everyone knows about.


----------



## rimtas (24 September 2015)

Bill M said:


> I see Rimtas has not been online since the 17th. is he on a forced holiday?




Yep, Joe Blow did a blow job and blowed me out the crowd. His statement was, quote: " I do not want you to scare people, you are too pessimistic, people don't like you". God bless Joe.

 Looks like the Crash that is just around the corner will be promoted as "not posible scenario" untill it finaly ends. And brainwashing from permabulls will keep people in stocks untill they are broke. 

Everyone must now be shorting stocks to their eyeballs as the strongest part of the crash is on the horizon, which brings XAO down 30% in a matter of weeks. I like December for this...And as  Porper changed his count _again_ to bearish, I must add that short term a rebound is quite a possible scenario-last time to snap shorts at sky high prices. 
Che che


----------



## Joe Blow (24 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Yep, Joe Blow did a blow job and blowed me out the crowd. His statement was, quote: " I do not want you to scare people, you are too pessimistic, people don't like you". God bless Joe.




No, I told you to stop insulting others and attacking them personally. If you are going to quote me then at least be honest about it.


----------



## rimtas (24 September 2015)

Joe Blow said:


> No, I told you to stop insulting others and attacking them personally. If you are going to quote me then at least be honest about it.






No Joe, you must be honest and declare about the scheme how you sort out people who must be banned from social interaction. You must not be a moderator as you are one sided. I put my vote to blow you out from this role. Step aside, you are not doing your job you are paid for.

Insulting and attacking...you must be joking. If the world contained just these kind of "insults and attacks", it would be a paradise. I am sure that the "victims" will survive. If you can't just die or do not cry like babies.


----------



## Joe Blow (24 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> No Joe, you must be honest and declare about the scheme how you sort out people who must be banned from social interaction. You must not be a moderator as you are one sided. I put my vote to blow you out from this role. Step aside, you are not doing your job you are paid for.




I'm not going to sidetrack this thread any further. However, I will say this: I issue warnings or infractions solely on the basis of behaviour. This is why you received a temporary account suspension, and if you can't get past it and move on, and you persist in insulting and attacking others here at ASF then it will happen again. So, you decide.


----------



## Porper (24 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> No Joe. I put my vote to blow you out from this role. Step aside, you are not doing your job you are paid for.




Attacking moderators now. Actually you are quite a comedian Rimtas. That made me laugh. Best post you've made.


----------



## rimtas (24 September 2015)

Porper said:


> Attacking moderators now. Actually you are quite a comedian Rimtas. That made me laugh. Best post you've made.




I thought you were attacked and insulted. This just proves my point in re to Joe as he banned me just on this basis.


Joe, it is time to put post rating system in this forum. You know-plus/minus, thumbs up/down or whatever you can think of. It works quite well on other forums, leaving the author of the post knowing what posts community thinks are good and which one not. If I see no one likes me writing, I just disappear in shame.


----------



## skc (24 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> You need to trade stuff no one talks about and *short stuff everyone knows about.*




That's a no brainer. Too bad you can't always find borrow for them.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> You can see the bottoms marked with black dots.




I see that whilst the lows have all been similar, each high has been a bit lower than the previous high as shown on your chart.

As to the issues raised by others about moderation on ASF, I've been on this forum for quite a long time now, made plenty of posts and learned quite a bit from others. In all that time I haven't found Joe to be in any way problematic as either a moderator or owner of this forum.


----------



## shouldaindex (25 September 2015)

So, through whatever short term events I'm still keen on 4700s end of October.

What is interesting is that early November has a few key events.  3 of the Big Banks report yearly earnings in the first 9 days (with Q4 taking in all the China volatility) and some discussion of a Melbourne Cup day RBA move.  

Also the past few years have seen bottoms in December before a Santa Rally, this is a bit later than typically where October or November have been more common.


----------



## Wysiwyg (26 September 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> So, through whatever short term events I'm still keen on 4700s end of October.



There is also the pattern of an upside down pennant which is a continuation pattern. Good case for lower following the U.S.


----------



## kid hustlr (29 September 2015)

Still not breaking the lows. It might today or tonight but it's held up incredibly well around here.

Accumulation?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 September 2015)

Ohhh boy...It's happening again.  Breakout from the triangle could see a measured move.  Long term trendline with multiple touches in green also sitting there.  Overall, not good.


----------



## Trembling Hand (29 September 2015)

So we are down 2.5% today. For all the huff and puff of September we are still only down 4% more than half of that is today's move. Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%. Looks like the selling this month may have slowed down...........? :run:


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> So we are down 2.5% today. For all the huff and puff of September we are still only down 4% more than half of that is today's move. Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%. Looks like the selling this month may have slowed down...........? :run:




Yeh it's been choppy.  I feel like the market is keen to see what a close sub-5000 feels like at some point this week or next.  Even if it's just a taster.


----------



## sinner (29 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> So we are down 2.5% today. For all the huff and puff of September we are still only down 4% more than half of that is today's move. Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%. Looks like the selling this month may have slowed down...........? :run:




The chart is very weak on a relative basis to other currency adjusted (e.g. US) indices though.

We didn't really bounce and bear momentum is significantly stronger.


----------



## Porper (29 September 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yeh it's been choppy.  I feel like the market is keen to see what a close sub-5000 feels like at some point this week or next.  Even if it's just a taster.




I am not sure our market is capable of bucking the trend if the U.S indices continue to retrace. On past performance you'd have to say not anyway.

What will be the significant pattern here though? The triangle or the massive stopping volume seen at the 25th of August lows. We'll soon know. A break lower offers 4527 - 4188.


----------



## skc (29 September 2015)

An interesting article comparing the current state of play with 2011.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/greg_tolpigin.asp?a=AV&ai=36709

To me it doesn't necessarily mean that this guy is right... it just means one need to be open to all possibilities.


----------



## CanOz (29 September 2015)

skc said:


> An interesting article comparing the current state of play with 2011.
> 
> http://www.sharecafe.com.au/greg_tolpigin.asp?a=AV&ai=36709
> 
> To me it doesn't necessarily mean that this guy is right... it just means one need to be open to all possibilities.




I agree this looks like a good possibility, I've seen some thing very similar from twitter...

The SPI seems reluctant to fall impulsively and seems to want to grind lower. This seems to me to be a situation where the market is too short already...

I can't help but wonder if the SPI is being led more by China mainland, as the charts look more similar than any overseas charts or the HSI ... We all know that there has been massive intervention in the mainland markets, but how long can they put off the inevitable....


----------



## CanOz (29 September 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Ohhh boy...It's happening again.  Breakout from the triangle could see a measured move.  Long term trendline with multiple touches in green also sitting there.  Overall, not good.




FWIW, my target is 4700 based on the consolidation pattern and the low volume area.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 September 2015)

CanOz said:


> FWIW, my target is 4700 based on the consolidation pattern and the low volume area.




I'm at 4600 (using Bulkowski's measurement).

Sitting right on the line at the close - now 5 touches, so it seems to be on everyone's radar.  

Weekly period chart.


----------



## shouldaindex (29 September 2015)

I was expecting a quiet period, so today caught me off guard.

My main fundamental indicators suggest -20% from peak (4770) is a high probability and this trend line is on target for later October.   

The -20% to -25% range is a popular one when a recession or financial crisis isn't happening (yet) but a bear market has been reached. 

From there it's mainly about assessing data to play the probabilities of that occurring as the historical swing on that outcome can be huge (EG. GFC vs no GFC 12 months later -50% vs +20%)


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 September 2015)

Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.




Why would it matter? A dollar lost on your account is still a dollar lost no matter what anyone else has achieved. Why wouldn't you just concentrate on keeping/making your own money/gains?


----------



## Trembling Hand (30 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> Tomorrow, going on the past month we probably will be back up 2%.




Anyone want to toss the coin and see which way the 2% move will be tomorrow? :


----------



## DeepState (30 September 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.




Yes. I am long biased.  Equity positions have been a maximum of 75% of target exposure over the last year as valuations in the US looked rich.  Positions in Australia were cut by 2/3rds in July and by half in Europe/UK at about the same time.  Currency exposure to the USD buffered the pain, as have bond positions.  Still, there is pain.

Have recently rebuilt the international equity positions to full weight and remixed currency exposures (less USD and more EUR and JPY..thankfully).  Overall, this move has been pretty flat. Will be re-hedging extreme events tonight to ensure my buttocks aren't handed to me in the coming period.

All within tolerances.  I pursue heavily risk managed approaches so the losses can be absorbed.  

Risk assessment:
Hours of sleep lost: 2.  Blood lost: None. Cold sweat perspired: 1/4 tea spoon.  Tears shed: None.
Outcome: Within tolerances.

Where are the balls of steel buyers??? 15%+ Peak to trough.  Big statements when markets are up.  Silence now.


----------



## sinner (30 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone want to toss the coin and see which way the 2% move will be tomorrow? :




I'll put a dollar on panic selling from Asian accounts all day.


----------



## skc (30 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone want to toss the coin and see which way the 2% move will be tomorrow? :




How much of this was real bounce and how much was quarter end window dressing?

The mainstream media however has changed recently from "just a correction" to "worse to come". Lines up with the false break view pretty well.

Still holding very little directionally overnight.



shouldaindex said:


> I was expecting a quiet period




In Sept we have average daily change of 67 points on the XJO. Half the days have daily ranges >100 pts. It was one of the more volatile times in a while.

Hardly a time to expect a quiet period.


----------



## peter2 (30 September 2015)

If I tossed the coin it would land on it's edge. The market (XAO) is right on the edge now. Which way will it fall? Heck who cares, so long as it moves big when it does.

@wysi: For sure we're having "haircuts", but hair grows back (unless you've lost it all). The portfolio's of medium and longer term holders are down for sure, but that doesn't matter if they're keeping their downside exposure within their personal risk tolerances.  My medium term portfolio has been transferred to weekly charts. That means, my exit stops are now based on weekly charts not daily charts due to the increase in volatility.

Small traders (like us) recognise the trend is down and have done something about it. We've recognised the increase in the daily volatility and have done something about it. A haircut is much better than hair removal.


----------



## sinner (30 September 2015)

DeepState said:


> Where are the balls of steel buyers??? 15%+ Peak to trough.  Big statements when markets are up.  Silence now.




I buy a little, or take off puts as appropriate, to maintain desired exposure as prices decline. Not sure it qualifies me for balls of steel though 

Wasn't Bill M buying a few parcels too?


----------



## DeepState (30 September 2015)

Trembling Hand said:


> Why would it matter? A dollar lost on your account is still a dollar lost no matter what anyone else has achieved. Why wouldn't you just concentrate on keeping/making your own money/gains?




Because misery loves company.


----------



## DeepState (30 September 2015)

sinner said:


> I buy a little, or take off puts as appropriate, to maintain desired exposure as prices decline. Not sure it qualifies me for balls of steel though
> 
> Wasn't Bill M buying a few parcels too?




Strategic rebalancing.  Always suspected you had good discipline.

Bill M has not yet deployed from what has been disclosed.  Still, a good call to have exited some positions at better levels.  Not sure how he liquidates everything yet still has a bunch of ETFs going ex-div. Perhaps they are non-equity underlying like some of mine.


----------



## Porper (30 September 2015)

peter2 said:


> Small traders (like us) recognise the trend is down and have done something about it. We've recognised the increase in the daily volatility and have done something about it. A haircut is much better than hair removal.




Exactly right. Reducing risk is key at times like these. 

In fact finding ways of reducing risk is of paramount importance at all times as far as I am concerned.


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 September 2015)

DeepState said:


> Risk assessment:
> Hours of sleep lost: 2.  Blood lost: None. Cold sweat perspired: 1/4 tea spoon.  Tears shed: None.
> Outcome: Within tolerances.
> 
> Where are the balls of steel buyers??? 15%+ Peak to trough.  Big statements when markets are up.  Silence now.



Thank you for sharing this. Not miserable myself but trading solo I have no contact with other market participants and no one ever mentions their drawdown on forums. The ASX has been tumultuous since August and   buying stocks too soon has increased my drawdown. Remaining optimistic.


----------



## Wysiwyg (30 September 2015)

peter2 said:


> Small traders (like us) recognise the trend is down and have done something about it. We've recognised the increase in the daily volatility and have done something about it. A haircut is much better than hair removal.



Yes you are right there. Read your breakout thread daily and am astounded the portfolio has remained positive through all this. Top stuff.


----------



## craft (30 September 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Thank you for sharing this. Not miserable myself but trading solo I have no contact with other market participants and no one ever mentions their drawdown on forums. The ASX has been tumultuous since August and   buying stocks too soon has increased my drawdown. Remaining optimistic.




If its drawdown’s you want to see then no need to go further than a long term stock picker – I specialise in drawdown – spend ~90% of my life in drawdown.

In draw down since 1st June, Max to date in this drawdown has been 13.4% currently down 8.3%  





Business as usual as far as I’m concerned.


----------



## Bill M (1 October 2015)

sinner said:


> Wasn't Bill M buying a few parcels too?




Yes I did, I bought 2 parcels at the 5.100 level, I have 4 more to buy. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were travel days so I did not do anything. The lower levels (sub 5,000) have not come yet, so still waiting. I pick up a nice distribution for the first 2 parcels in a couple of weeks too.


----------



## Bill M (1 October 2015)

DeepState said:


> Strategic rebalancing.  Always suspected you had good discipline.
> 
> Bill M has not yet deployed from what has been disclosed.  Still, a good call to have exited some positions at better levels.  Not sure how he liquidates everything yet still has a bunch of ETFs going ex-div. Perhaps they are non-equity underlying like some of mine.




2 of my ETF's are bond funds. 

There are 2 other ETF's that I bought at the end of last year, they are showing losses and I will continue to hold them.

The ETF I am buying now is the one where I intend to buy 4 more parcels of, I just have that feeling that those lower prices are not going to happen.

The ETF's are all ex distribution today, even though we might have an up day today, they will show losses which is expected.


----------



## CanOz (1 October 2015)

craft said:


> If its drawdown’s you want to see then no need to go further than a long term stock picker – I specialise in drawdown – spend ~90% of my life in drawdown.
> 
> In draw down since 1st June, Max to date in this drawdown has been 13.4% currently down 8.3%
> 
> ...




Hi craft, Curious as to your pain threshold? I've been through over 30% but not keen to repeat....


----------



## CanOz (1 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> FWIW, my target is 4700 based on the consolidation pattern and the low volume area.




I think we're headed to 5100 ish...that's the problem with pattern analysis, they change.


----------



## CanOz (1 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> I think we're headed to 5100 ish...that's the problem with pattern analysis, they change.




Talk about a well bid market....the SPI

If the SPI can get through this resistance here between 5080 and 5100, we might see 5225 tested.


----------



## craft (1 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Hi craft, Curious as to your pain threshold? I've been through over 30% but not keen to repeat....




I don’t know for sure. I think I could handle anything that the ASX history has thrown up but it’s also likely my tolerance is not as high as I think it is.

I’m more likely to feel pain if my perception of the performance and cash flows of the companies I’m holding accompanies the market downturn; however that would also be my trigger to risk manage.

To date, care factor on this pull back has been nil and I had to pull up my equity chart in response to WYSIWG post to see where exactly I was at.  Much prefer to read the company releases on how they are going than count my money each day.     

What drives my investment return is the_* buy price*_, a series of *cash flows *over maybe(hopefully) a long period of time and _*‘perhaps’ *_an eventual sale price who’s  present value is probably not that material to the eventual rate achieved. Intermediate mark to market pull backs tend to induce excitement about opportunities to re-invest the dividend stream as seeds for increased future returns rather than induce pain.  But I could be deluded – most think I am..


----------



## shouldaindex (1 October 2015)

My strategy of the past 2 years relies on the premise:

- That cycles end within 5 years and with a -20% drawdown (minimum).  This has happened 15 times in a row since 1960 with no exception.

I didn't see the XAO getting to 6800 so that at best the drawdown starting from 2016 (at latest) would end up at 5400.  Given the range of the XAO had been 5100-6000 in that time, there wasn't much upside in putting in significant amounts of cash.

So right now, 6 months after peak is still early in a bear phase, the average lasts for about 12 months.

We'll see how it plays out, in the end the magnitude of cycle ending drawdowns is primarily decided by real life economics more than just stock market perceptions, so days that swing a lot aren't really too important, it's the big economic data days that matter in bear markets.


----------



## CanOz (1 October 2015)

craft said:


> I don’t know for sure. I think I could handle anything that the ASX history has thrown up but it’s also likely my tolerance is not as high as I think it is.
> 
> I’m more likely to feel pain if my perception of the performance and cash flows of the companies I’m holding accompanies the market downturn; however that would also be my trigger to risk manage.
> 
> ...




Thanks Craft...Appreciate your POV.



> But I could be deluded – most think I am..




I certainly don't!


----------



## Porper (1 October 2015)

craft said:


> I don’t know for sure. I think I could handle anything that the ASX history has thrown up but it’s also likely my tolerance is not as high as I think it is.




I always remember what my mentor said to me years ago...Whatever number you come up with regarding drawdown tolerance, halve it. I have always thought this to be about spot on for beginners ( I know you aren't in that category Craft). If somebody believes they can cope with 40%, they'll likely get twitchy at 20%.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 October 2015)

Guys, remember craft is worth mega-$$$$$$.  This will remove certain stresses and pressures for performance and regularity of profits.


----------



## sinner (1 October 2015)

Just got in front of a computer after a long day of moving house. No panic selling andalmost 2% up, guess I owe ya a dollar TH 



Porper said:


> I always remember what my mentor said to me years ago...Whatever number you come up with regarding drawdown tolerance, halve it. I have always thought this to be about spot on for beginners ( I know you aren't in that category Craft). If somebody believes they can cope with 40%, they'll likely get twitchy at 20%.




Severe drawdowns have a serious negative impact on long term geometric returns. You only need a little bit more than 20% returns to make up a 20% drawdown but you need 100% returns to make up a 50% drawdown. Very important consideration in the context of your investments duration, if you're going to need to spend that money on retirement or whatever then making sure risk tolerance is aligned correctly with duration is paramount.


----------



## Craton (1 October 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Are others taking losses in this market? I am a small trader so surely there are some big haircuts being taken but no one openly admits it. Always the winner. B.S.




While I'm not a trader per se and I'd be called a minnow by any stretch, I'm having a short back and sides currently but that's the nature of the beast. Being a mostly buy and hold contrarian survivor of the dot com bust, 9/11 and the GFC, and seeing what transpired, I just continue to pick up parcels at depressed prices, average down and continue to smile when the div's come in.

I do note that there are stocks that are not hammered so hard and any uptick in the XAO takes those SP's to new highs.

I'd also hazard a guess that this volatility is just what a day trader craves for and they'd be making money hand over fist. 

FWIW, currently am 38% in cash.


----------



## CanOz (1 October 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Guys, remember craft is worth mega-$$$$$$.  This will remove certain stresses and pressures for performance and regularity of profits.




How do you know this?

Perhaps some of the guys here that do a fair bit of fundamental research, i mean real solid research, can handle more of a draw down because they know companies they hold so well it gives them extra confidence. Also there is the dividend stream, nice.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> How do you know this?
> 
> Perhaps some of the guys here that do a fair bit of fundamental research, i mean real solid research, can handle more of a draw down because they know companies they hold so well it gives them extra confidence. Also there is the dividend stream, nice.




He let it slip once.  Not that it matters to me, since I don't understand any of his posts ayway.


----------



## Newt (1 October 2015)

craft said:


> If its drawdown’s you want to see then no need to go further than a long term stock picker – I specialise in drawdown – spend ~90% of my life in drawdown.
> 
> In draw down since 1st June, Max to date in this drawdown has been 13.4% currently down 8.3%
> 
> ...





Woo hoo.  Glad you're posting again craft.  :bier:  

I was just wondering the other day about you mindset during these periods, and from your PVFCFs thread expecting you'd be maintaining the long term view.  Surprised your portfolio is in drawdown that often, but long term returns damned impressive for sure.


----------



## shouldaindex (2 October 2015)

Light Green = In Drawdown
Blue = Gains

I'd say it's probably 70/30 and that's just on a monthly basis.  

I might do a clearer one if it's a quiet day.


----------



## shouldaindex (2 October 2015)

Permanent Gains for the past 30 years.  I'd estimate they took about 8 years all up, so around 75% of the time we're in drawdowns on a monthly basis.


----------



## shouldaindex (2 October 2015)

You can see anytime the XAO or Dow Jones has seperated in the past month it's gotten back together within a few days.  Might be just the half day delay effect, but either way the correlation is very strong.


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 October 2015)

Comparing the declines now with historicals, this one is tame. With the Syrian war entering a new phase of conflicting interest, optimism could easily turn down.


----------



## Logique (2 October 2015)

The XAO is intently searching for the bottom, like a swimmer just out of their depth at the beach.

I can see the adventurous deploying a little risk capital at this point.  

The more cautious will wait to see if the 5,000 level holds, or we break down to the 4100-4500 range.


----------



## skc (2 October 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> You can see anytime the XAO or Dow Jones has seperated in the past month it's gotten back together within a few days.  Might be just the half day delay effect, but either way the correlation is very strong.
> 
> View attachment 64562




What is this chart actually plotting? The close price for both indices? 

Remember that there are time differences between the close of the two indices,  so you can't really make too much out of it using this chart alone.


----------



## craft (2 October 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Guys, remember craft is worth mega-$$$$$$.  This will remove certain stresses and pressures for performance and regularity of profits.



 Mmmm wonder how that happened?  Hasn't always been the case.

I was just answering a question about my threshold for draw down – I wasn’t implying the same should go for anybody else. I have no bones if for financial or psychological reasons you want a smoother equity curve – if you do the shorter the time frame the better, all that matters on short time frame is price ...  and  of course like any time frame, being good at what you do.



Gringotts Bank said:


> Not that it matters to me, since I don't understand any of his posts ayway.




So buying shares for the cash flow they will generate is beyond your comprehension?

Always astounds me how some can’t comprehend an alternative to what the do whilst others 



CanOz said:


> Perhaps some of the guys here that do a fair bit of fundamental research, i mean real solid research, can handle more of a draw down because they know companies they hold so well it gives them extra confidence. Also there is the dividend stream, nice.




Seem to comprehend it perfectly.


----------



## craft (2 October 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Light Green = In Drawdown
> Blue = Gains
> 
> I'd say it's probably 70/30 and that's just on a monthly basis.
> ...




Interesting analysis 
90% was my guess  - what ever the exact figure, It certainly seems consolidation or retreat is more the normal existence than advance.  Not very sexy in an instant gratification culture.

It would be interesting to see if there is any difference on an accumulation index.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 October 2015)

craft said:


> Mmmm wonder how that happened?  Hasn't always been the case.
> 
> I was just answering a question about my threshold for draw down – I wasn’t implying the same should go for anybody else. I have no bones if for financial or psychological reasons you want a smoother equity curve – if you do the shorter the time frame the better, all that matters on short time frame is price ...  and  of course like any time frame, being good at what you do.
> 
> ...




I'm referring to your usual posts on economic ratios and such....OBVIOUSLY


----------



## Logique (6 October 2015)

The nerve of the shorts will be tested today. A squeeze will be on.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 October 2015)

Logique said:


> The nerve of the shorts will be tested today. A squeeze will be on.



The whole scene has relaxed considerably as if the low is in.


----------



## CanOz (8 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Talk about a well bid market....the SPI
> 
> If the SPI can get through this resistance here between 5080 and 5100, we might see 5225 tested.




Done and dusted....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 October 2015)

Is it just me or is the Ords about to drop fairly hard?  Seems like some distributuon going on.


----------



## shouldaindex (17 October 2015)

Looking at 2017 futures, it's about 200 points less than current XAO.

I'm not sure, but would think that is unusual.


----------



## CanOz (18 October 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Looking at 2017 futures, it's about 200 points less than current XAO.
> 
> I'm not sure, but would think that is unusual.




Easy trade then, short the current contract and go long the 2017


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 October 2015)

craft said:


> If its drawdown’s you want to see then no need to go further than a long term stock picker – I specialise in drawdown – spend ~90% of my life in drawdown.
> 
> In draw down since 1st June, Max to date in this drawdown has been 13.4% currently down 8.3%
> 
> Business as usual as far as I’m concerned.



Yes I am nearing surface after the recent market enema with my longer term holds. I suppose you will be too. Not looking at them helped but I gotta get some balance between long holds and trading the Index moves considering cumulatively at various stages I held over 100 $1 long contracts below 5000 points and ended up with a smaller stack.


----------



## Bill M (24 October 2015)

Triathlete said:


> It would make more sense to me anyway to get out of the market while it is going down and preserve your capital and then get back in when the uptrend starts again.




XAO closed at 5201 on that day 17 Sept 2015



notting said:


> Like yesterday?






Triathlete said:


> Not yet....probably just a bounce still in a downtrend to me...weekly and monthly swing are still down!!




You wrote both those comments on the 17th. of September. Since then we saw the XAO close at 4958 which was the lowest point. Then it crept up to 5000, 5100, 5200, 5300 and now 5388.

Seeing that the XJO has busted through the 5300 resistance line, have you bought yet? If not, then at what point would you be buying?


----------



## Triathlete (24 October 2015)

Bill M said:


> XAO closed at 5201 on that day 17 Sept 2015
> 
> 
> 
> ...





To answer your question as best as I can and since I am a student of price ,pattern and time analysis it may be best that you take a look on my blog post regarding this topic and way of trading. 

In simple terms I look for stocks that are trading on either a wave 3 or wave 5 typically if trading long and use time and price to compliment my decision.

There are presently a few stocks I am looking to trade currently when those rules are met.


----------



## craft (24 October 2015)

The accumulation index looks like a healthy consolidation above previous all time highs to me.


----------



## craft (24 October 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes I am nearing surface after the recent market enema with my longer term holds. I suppose you will be too. Not looking at them helped but I gotta get some balance between long holds and trading the Index moves considering cumulatively at various stages I held over 100 $1 long contracts below 5000 points and ended up with a smaller stack.




Having the right head space for investing on a value basis and trading on a price basis is beyond me - My wife would say its because I'm a mere male and can only focus on one thing at a time - she's probably right.


----------



## sinner (26 October 2015)

Where is the return on XAO (and XJO) coming from?

Definitely not the small end of town.

S&P ASX100 (green) and S&P ASX Small Ordinaries (black)


----------



## Valued (27 October 2015)

It's an odd move up considering world indices are down or steady. Usually I would expect more caution ahead of the rates decision in the US. I don't trust Australians on Mondays though. Actually, I don't like our market in general - where the hell is our huge steep bull market, everyone else got one ASX 10,000 or go home.


----------



## kid hustlr (2 November 2015)

XJO vs XSO divergence since the august shakeout low is incredible.

The winds are changing.


----------



## tinhat (2 November 2015)

kid hustlr said:


> XJO vs XSO divergence since the august shakeout low is incredible.
> 
> The winds are changing.




TLS down. Banks down. BHP & RIO down. WOW & WES down.

As the ad says "Down, down, prices are down".


----------



## skc (9 November 2015)

tinhat said:


> TLS down. Banks down. BHP & RIO down. WOW & WES down.
> 
> As the ad says "Down, down, prices are down".




Do you trade in the land DownUnder?

Where prices go Down and performance is under.

They all buy shares for their Super.

The hedge funds' short, there's no need to cover.



No... it's not awesome, but describes pretty well the XAO's status as the world's short trade proxy (as a fellow trader called it today).


----------



## PinguPingu (10 November 2015)

Poor little ASX... but yields on the big 4, WOW, WES and TLS must be great now! :


----------



## shouldaindex (10 November 2015)

As long as you know why the world is wrong and you are right (when you are the highest bidder for stock).


----------



## shouldaindex (10 November 2015)

Also looking at the XAO from the 2011 Low.

It has made big gains in the December to April period in each of the 4 years of the bull run.  This is a seasonally strong period in bull phases historically and has turned out to be shown once again here.

I would say if there is a weak December to April coming up, it'll be a worry.  Fed Rates are likely to go up in the US to end nearly a decade at record lows.  Just like Banks which dipped 30% post April, it's hard to tell when one phase ends and another begins, so getting an indicator against strong trend could be a signal.


----------



## Valued (10 November 2015)

We are a commodity market with a commodity currency. If we have a bull market id expect to see commodity prices rising, the AUD getting stronger, and China increasing imports. Without that, we may be in a difficult position.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 November 2015)

A couple of guys I like to read online are saying to prepare for a pretty strong bull run on the DJIA.

So I'm hopeful we'll follow upwards.


Also...

*CNNMoney (London) November 11, 2015: 5:03 AM ET *

There's a positive mood in global markets Wednesday.

China's annual shopping bonanza is setting the tone and the beer industry is also grabbing headlines.

Here are the five things you need to know before the opening bell rings in New York:

1. Shop 'til you drop: China's biggest shopping day of the year is smashing records again, with total transactions already surpassing $10 billion.

The annual online shopping festival is China's version of "Cyber Monday."

Within the first eight minutes, customers had spent $1 billion on Alibaba's (BABA, Tech30) popular shopping platforms, Taobao and Tmall.

The results are boosting shares premarket in Alibaba, JD.com (JD), and Yahoo (YHOO, Tech30), which owns a large stake in Alibaba.

2. Big beer deal done: The world's two biggest beer brewers have formally agreed to combine their businesses in a deal worth roughly £71 billion ($107 billion).

Anheuser-Busch InBev (AHBIF) is offering £44 in cash for each SABMiller (SBMRY) share, but there's an option for some investors to receive shares instead of cash.

Related: Fear & Greed Index

3. Carlsberg sacks thousands: Shares in competing brewer Carlsberg (CABGY) are rising by about 8% in Europe after the company announced it was cutting 15% of its workforce as it struggles with weak business in Russia and China.

4. Market overview: U.S. stock futures are rising alongside key European markets. This follows two days of lackluster moves.

Asian markets ended with mixed results, but the key Chinese index closed with modest gains.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 each rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.2%.

Commodities are looking soft Wednesday as oil prices dip by about 1% to trade around $43.80 per barrel. Prices for aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc are also falling.

5. Earnings: An earnings update from Macy's (M) is due ahead of the open.

This afternoon, quarterly reports will come through from Popeyes (PLKI) and Flowers Foods (FLO), which is the company behind Nature's Own and Wonder bread.


----------



## shouldaindex (13 November 2015)

Not so much, but we already know predicting short term movements are random basically.

Interesting stat I found though that might help:

"During the period of 30th November to 30th April, the ASX has only lost 3 times out of past 30 years"

Wowee.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Not so much, but we already know predicting short term movements are random basically.
> 
> Interesting stat I found though that might help:
> 
> ...




I think it's similar with the DOW.  That's part of what made them say that.


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 November 2015)

We don't like to follow the American market up too closely but we sure dive when the American market falls.


----------



## sinner (15 November 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> We don't like to follow the American market up too closely but we sure dive when the American market falls.




Unless you're tracking the USD priced AU index or AUD priced US index, you are not interpreting the signals correctly. Depending on what is driving the market, returns can be completely subsumed by the move in AUDUSD.

For example, when you plot the S&P500 cash priced in AUDUSD cash, you can see the index milled around the 2009 lows until 2012 even though you probably thought it was going up.



(h/t barchart.com)

You'll also note during that period the Aussie market was actually rising but the US market priced in AUD was not...

The NYSE listed EWA is a good way to see the Aussie market priced in USD (benchmarked to the MSCI Australia which is approx equiv to S&P ASX100). Alternatively I believe there are now ASX listed US index ETFs, ASX:SPY and ASX:VTS which allow you to see those indices priced in AUD.


----------



## shouldaindex (16 November 2015)

Great content Sinner.

What is worrying though is the Dow is only 6% off it's peak.  It has a long way to go if something hits and the XAO starting point is 5000, not 6000 like previous, and when there's contagion it might not matter as it'll be sold off regardless.


----------



## qldfrog (16 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Great content Sinner.
> 
> What is worrying though is the Dow is only 6% off it's peak.  It has a long way to go if something hits and the XAO starting point is 5000, not 6000 like previous, and when there's contagion it might not matter as it'll be sold off regardless.




to mitigate this, the peak was 8 years ago or so, inflation at 2% a year just for the ease of computation (and I do not even count the actual printing of money) so in real term, the down is still down a good 25% from its peak..., and in actual "value" probably even far less.
values are not static, the dynamic view helps


----------



## skyQuake (16 November 2015)

sinner said:


> Unless you're tracking the USD priced AU index or AUD priced US index, you are not interpreting the signals correctly. Depending on what is driving the market, returns can be completely subsumed by the move in AUDUSD.
> 
> For example, when you plot the S&P500 cash priced in AUDUSD cash, you can see the index milled around the 2009 lows until 2012 even though you probably thought it was going up.
> 
> ...




Thats funny, I had those charts priced the other way, S&P priced in USD and and the AU indices in USD too. Would argue that a US centric view would be more relevant.





qldfrog said:


> to mitigate this, the peak was 8 years ago or so, inflation at 2% a year just for the ease of computation (and I do not even count the actual printing of money) so in real term, the down is still down a good 25% from its peak..., and in actual "value" probably even far less.
> values are not static, the dynamic view helps



If you add in inflation, you'd better also look at asx accumulation indices to compensate for the divs too


----------



## qldfrog (16 November 2015)

skyQuake said:


> If you add in inflation, you'd better also look at asx accumulation indices to compensate for the divs too



True but we were discussing US indice with quite low dividends 9as opposed to Australia) so i believe the overall idea is still we are far in real money from the peak of 2007


----------



## shouldaindex (18 November 2015)

Last 3 years ASX has ended up in the same area late in the year.

Probably setting up for a strong seasonal run again barring a negative global catalyst.


----------



## Logique (19 November 2015)

XAO +2% today, is one hell of a squeeze.

Shouldaindex, looking at your chart, I see one set of red dots in a LT uptrend, meeting another in a downtrend, or is this too glass half empty of me..given the strong seasonality at this time of the year.


----------



## skyQuake (19 November 2015)

Time for that strong Christmas rally?

Everyone that took the div runup trade in the banks has puked out so banks should rally.

BHP et al are bouncing despite the very nasty commodities moves.

Now if those pesky commodities can bounce, our index should go nuts


----------



## PennD (21 November 2015)

Purely Speculation...




A little learning is a dangerous thing;
drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
and drinking largely sobers us again.


----------



## shouldaindex (21 November 2015)

I notice ASX and S&P500 futures are down to September next year. 

Is that an unusual implied forecast?


----------



## Valued (22 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> I notice ASX and S&P500 futures are down to September next year.
> 
> Is that an unusual implied forecast?




That is to be expected since the futures markets are pricing in a chance of a US federal reserve rate hike.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 November 2015)

Last time we had these tiny candles, it was followed by a big sell off.

Lots of corporate failures.  And lots of mean reverting stocks failing to revert.  My MR systems have been flat for about 3 weeks.

I think the market is slowly heading into a *big *hole.


----------



## kid hustlr (27 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> I notice ASX and S&P500 futures are down to September next year.
> 
> Is that an unusual implied forecast?






Valued said:


> That is to be expected since the futures markets are pricing in a chance of a US federal reserve rate hike.




Valued I'm not sure if you are serious ??

S&P Futures go out for many months and their value can almost 100% be based on the cost of carry calculation for the underlying commodity - in this case the index. (Think interest rates - dividends). Whilst market expectations of interest rate hikes will influence the cost of carry calc, claiming future contracts are down because of an expected rate hike isn't really accurate.


----------



## shouldaindex (1 December 2015)

- House Price decline.
- China PMI contraction.
- Interest Rates likely on hold.

ASX up 100 points?


----------



## CanOz (1 December 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> - House Price decline.
> - China PMI contraction.
> *- Interest Rates likely on hold.*
> 
> ASX up 100 points?




Anticipation?


----------



## MrBurns (1 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> Anticipation?





Could be anticipation of a fall............


----------



## Porper (1 December 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> - House Price decline.
> - China PMI contraction.
> - Interest Rates likely on hold.
> 
> ASX up 100 points?




Don't forget the market is forward looking...it likes to prove the 95% wrong. Pessimism is at extreme levels. Question now is whether it's extreme enough.


----------



## MrBurns (1 December 2015)

MrBurns said:


> Could be anticipation of a fall............





Nope , on hold....again.


----------



## cynic (1 December 2015)

CanOz said:


> Anticipation?



Yep! Santa's coming this month!!


----------



## CanOz (1 December 2015)

cynic said:


> Yep! Santa's coming this month!!




Seems he's planning a stop in China too


----------



## notting (2 December 2015)

It seems that the internationals are back into our market still looking for yield on the back of strong building numbers and Au$ looking to have stabilized and possibly even going to go up a bit.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2015)

health sector getting hit.  Why's that?


----------



## VSntchr (3 December 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> health sector getting hit.  Why's that?




Rumour has it that Elon Musk has a cure for all that ails the ill. 

Jokes aside, it could be a bit of rebalancing given the dollar has recovered a bit. A lot of the big health names are foreign earners... RMD, COH, CSL come to mind...

Haven't noticed anything substantial myself yet tho..


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2015)

VSntchr said:


> Rumour has it that Elon Musk has a cure for all that ails the ill.
> 
> Jokes aside, it could be a bit of rebalancing given the dollar has recovered a bit. A lot of the big health names are foreign earners... RMD, COH, CSL come to mind...
> 
> Haven't noticed anything substantial myself yet tho..




Cheers.

Might put a few low ball offers in for tomorrow.


----------



## skc (3 December 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> health sector getting hit.  Why's that?




HSO and RHC downgraded by Credit Suisse today. Plus HSO is a private equity float that seen the last of the escrow shares sold last week.

PRY is in the dog house for some time with 2 profit downgrades already. Plus there was a piece written by Macquarie today that it may not end there.

The other moves were not huge and were probably sympathetic falls.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2015)

skc said:


> HSO and RHC downgraded by Credit Suisse today. Plus HSO is a private equity float that seen the last of the escrow shares sold last week.
> 
> PRY is in the dog house for some time with 2 profit downgrades already. Plus there was a piece written by Macquarie today that it may not end there.
> 
> The other moves were not huge and were probably sympathetic falls.




Thanks for that.  I'll leave PRY alone then.  Have heard bad things about GXL too.  
HSO and RHC I'll look at if the price gets low enough.


----------



## skc (4 December 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Thanks for that.  I'll leave PRY alone then.  Have heard bad things about GXL too.
> HSO and RHC I'll look at if the price gets low enough.




GXL is not a healthcare stock. It's in the pets business so it's more of a retail stock. Yes it has vet surgeries but it's not a health stock.


----------



## Logique (4 December 2015)

A little ray of sunshine is Bill Gross..



> Bill Gross says it's time for investors to 'de-risk' their portfolios - December 4, 2015
> SMH:  http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...portfolios-20151203-glf4yw.html#ixzz3tJ0rCBkV
> 
> *Bill Gross says investors should move to protect their money in 2016* rather than reach for higher returns as central bank efforts to stimulate the global economy set the stage for markets to ultimately fall.
> ...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 December 2015)

Pretty flat market at the moment, been 6months of falls and now floats around 4900-5300

a tough call for long term investors, easy for a fund manager to do things with new money or take losses on other people's money


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 December 2015)

skc said:


> GXL is not a healthcare stock. It's in the pets business so it's more of a retail stock. Yes it has vet surgeries but it's not a health stock.




I had it in the wrong group.

Deutche Bank 'sector downgrade' according to someone on HC.


----------



## shouldaindex (4 December 2015)

XAO has been in the 5100s in each of the past 3 Decembers (2013, 2014, 2015).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 December 2015)

Healthcare stocks continue to get sold off hard.  I can't remember that happening before.  I wonder the reason.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 December 2015)

Something else I've noticed.  These web/app companies with one or two clients and no revenue and no hope of revenue.  They are forming big inverted V-shaped charts.  The run up can even happen over months with low volatility.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 December 2015)

Turnbull's "Ideas Boom" idea hasn't helped the small app-based start ups.

I don't even use apps on my phone... for anything.  Can't be bothered with Google Play.  Just find the whole thing annoying and tedious.

Nowadays you can list a company if you have an app that measures how much water your pot plant needs.  lol, I bet there's already something like that out there.


----------



## onthesword (8 December 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Turnbull's "Ideas Boom" idea hasn't helped the small app-based start ups.
> 
> I don't even use apps on my phone... for anything.  Can't be bothered with Google Play.  Just find the whole thing annoying and tedious.
> 
> Nowadays you can list a company if you have an app that measures how much water your pot plant needs.  lol, I bet there's already something like that out there.




yep, it's called plantlink


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 December 2015)

Another ordinary week coming for ASX by looks of it

Just amazing the impact APRA and RBA are having on equities


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 December 2015)

Thought the over count on job numbers would have spurred some sort of appreciation but not so. Went crazy down instead.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 December 2015)

Just amazing, people would have to seriously consider cash as the best place to invest if they have less than 20yr
 time frame


----------



## PinguPingu (10 December 2015)

Effectively nowhere for 4 years! 

Oh well, at least you'd have ~4.5% in dividends each year.


----------



## shouldaindex (10 December 2015)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=29925&page=2&p=883129&viewfull=1#post883129

ASX has gone nowhere for 57 years since 1900.


----------



## Ves (10 December 2015)

PinguPingu said:


> Effectively nowhere for 4 years!
> 
> Oh well, at least you'd have ~4.5% in dividends each year.



Not quite.

Dec 9th 2011 to Dec 10th 2015

XJO^Accum Index return 42.6%
XJO return 18.9% (doesn't include dividends).


----------



## shouldaindex (10 December 2015)

Even if the ASX goes nowhere from 2007 to 2027 you'll make about 8% P.A for the next 12 years.


----------



## PinguPingu (10 December 2015)

Ves said:


> Not quite.
> 
> Dec 9th 2011 to Dec 10th 2015
> 
> ...





XJo Should be 5 years sorry.. minus inflation  But yes, including dividends isn't too bad.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 December 2015)

Cash wouldn't be that far off if you go back to 2007, think about 3yrs ago you could of got around 8% for 5yr term deposits, capital preserved, be interesting to see the 20yr data on cash

Without having to deal with turmoil, 

Not saying cash ideal, but people would have to seriously consider holding more in portfolio or have 20yr time frame with equities


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 December 2015)

Obsessed with the down again. Makes ya want to give this business the flick. Too hard.


----------



## MrBurns (11 December 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Obsessed with the down again. Makes ya want to give this business the flick. Too hard.




It's gambling to a degree, let's face it and manipulated to a high degree.


----------



## Bill M (11 December 2015)

PinguPingu said:


> Effectively nowhere for 4 years!
> 
> Oh well, at least you'd have ~4.5% in dividends each year.




Actually, in numbers terms only, the XAO first hit current levels in March 2006. So that index has gone nowhere for 9 years and 9 Months. What a shocker.

At current prices I have been buying parcels for my super fund, all high dividend ETF's (RDV, VHY and SYI). Gross distributions 7 to 8%, not too bad. I am reducing cash holdings.



Wysiwyg said:


> Obsessed with the down again. Makes ya want to give this business the flick. Too hard.




It sure does, once I have enough to live off interest with money in the bank then I will but with current term deposits of around 3% I am a long way off that point.


----------



## shouldaindex (11 December 2015)

FTSE has gone nowhere since 1998.

Both the Nikkei and Dow went nowhere for a 30 year period.

ASX longest flat period was 16 years between 1967 to 1983. 

ASX is majority made up of Commodities and Financials - CBA, WBC, ANZ, NAB, BHP, RIO, WPL, IAG, SCG, WFD are 10 of the biggest 14 companies, none of which are forecast to grow above single digits for the next few years.

Australia / USA has had a Recession or Financial crisis every decade post WW2.

The median USA recession post first FED hike is less than 3 years.

This is good to me as it suggests we're going to take up many more years retracing and the biggest gains come after the longest flat periods.  

Think of it as the current having it's returns put into the future (EG 2008-2018 being put into 2019-) as opposed to the past stealing future returns (2003-2007 stealing from 200.


----------



## CanOz (11 December 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> *FTSE has gone nowhere since 1998.
> 
> Both the Nikkei and Dow went nowhere for a 30 year period.
> *




A range between 2500 and 7000 is nowhere?


----------



## shouldaindex (11 December 2015)

In 1998 FTSE was 6000.

In 2015 FTSE is 6000.

I'm assuming people know stuff happens in between.


----------



## poverty (11 December 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> In 1998 FTSE was 6000.
> 
> In 2015 FTSE is 6000.
> 
> I'm assuming people know stuff happens in between.




This is the beauty of regular investing, even tho it's gone nowhere, if you've bought $X amount at X intervals you are automatically buying more shares when prices are low and less when prices are high, the index has gone nowhere and you're making money, dividends are being paid out and you're making more money, but the volatility is what makes money.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 December 2015)

Thats okay if you have $ to continually invest and thats very good technique,

For many people the capital has gone nowhere, and some would be down some up depending on stock selection if they managing things thenselves

At the moment it appears the world financial markets are very much up and down, very jumpy, Aus equities have been in a rout for over 6 months, 

You would have to call it a bear market, all data coming out of this region is poor, the Government keeps reducing growth, estimates for world growth continue to be reduced


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 December 2015)

Something I've had in my mind for a very long time, it was one of the first concepts I learned about when becoming seriously interested in investment, is that of long term secular bears and bulls measured in terms of P/E.

The basic concept is that historically, the market goes from high valuation (measured as P/E) to low valuation and back again. High P/E = 21 or above. Low P/E = around 7. 

Historically at least, this does seem to have been the case with major markets (Eg USA) over an extended period with the only real questions being (1) how it gets there especially in the bear phase and (2) the extent of shorter term bulls and bears within the secular trend.

The "how" bit has more than one possible answer. In the bear phase, if profits are rising then the market could simply go sideways, or even slowly up, and in due course P/E comes down. In the bull phase then if we assume at least some growth in earnings in nominal terms then the market must go up in order to raise the P/E from low to high.

The ASX reached a high P/E circa year 2000 and hasn't yet reached a low value. What happened with the GFC didn't get us to a properly low value it seems. Same with many others overseas markets. Some useful charts are here, in particular the Trailing P/E Ratios chart. http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/share-markets.html

Assuming the long term secular bull / bear trend remains valid, we are thus going to get to a properly low P/E (somewhere around 7) at some point before we see another secular bull.

I'm no guru on this stuff, I only know what I've read and listened to (but that's rather a lot on this subject) so I'll leave it to everyone to do their own research. That said, it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that the ASX has gone nowhere for a decade or so, we're in a secular bear that needs to see a low P/E in order to be over with the only question being the detail (growth in earnings and a sideways market versus an actual market decline, or some combination of the two).

Note that in the context of all this it is actual (trailing) P/E that is used for the measurement and any forecasts have no relevance.

Edit: The "Major Economies' Share Price Indices" chart on the RBA site linked is also very telling in what it shows.


----------



## skyQuake (12 December 2015)

Those FTSE divvies add up though!

2435 in 1998 vs 4662 as of last night's vomiting.

Around 4% compounded, not too bad


----------



## shouldaindex (12 December 2015)

ASX ended up back at previous levels due to 30%+ crashes in these periods:

1922 to 1930 - 8 Years
1933 to 1942 - 9 Years
1947 to 1953 - 6 Years
1959 to 1974 - 15 Years
1978 to 1982 - 4 Years
1976 to 1980 - 4 Years
2000 to 2009 - 9 Years

Total of 55 years @ 0%. 

The other 45 years @ 13% (ASX 18 to 5050 from 1915 to 2015)


----------



## shouldaindex (12 December 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I've had in my mind for a very long time, it was one of the first concepts I learned about when becoming seriously interested in investment, is that of long term secular bears and bulls measured in terms of P/E.




Hi Smurf1976 - very interesting thoughts.

Keep in mind the U.S CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE) has only been higher 3% of the time in history.

It's about 33% above average, so following your thoughts, if CAPE mean reverts (as it will one day) the U.S Market will need to increase earnings by 50% just to keep their market where it is today.

Australia is about 5% above average now, and has done most of it's mean revert (was previously about 20% above average) in the past 6 months.

Pretty interesting to know what you're paying for.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 December 2015)

The potential for nasty arises when the aus. market has dropped significantly then the u.s. market tanks. I thought I was being patient before buying.   and  :frown:


----------



## shouldaindex (13 December 2015)

Having a look at some of the records that have been set during this bull phase:

- Record Low Interest Rates
- Record Low Bad Debts for Banks
- Record House Price Growth and Household Income and Debt Ratios 
- Record U.S CAPE Valuations
- Record U.S Profit Margins and ROE
- Record U.S Buy Backs

None of those happen without Record Low Interest Rates.  

As Warren Buffett says "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." 

And the tide starts to go out on Wednesday (even though it's likely a 2-3 year process).


----------



## kid hustlr (13 December 2015)

Back at the critical level after a brutal week.


----------



## kid hustlr (13 December 2015)

I also wonder if there's been a dynamics shift since that late August low. Smalls out performing bigs for the first time in a LONG time.




appears to be 2 options for the foreseeable future:

- we bounce around in the range as the big boys (apparently) rotate out of big caps and look for bargains a little 'further out'
- risk appetite reduces and the market gets re-rated, index falls and heads lower (4500?)


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (13 December 2015)

Good post

I think its more about countries doing things, positioning themselves, or going it alone creating this instability across the global markets

One thing for sure though is the commodities crisis is going to go down in history as a major financial event, its like the world needs the next event to be bigger than the last

Its setting up for a very ordinary week, 4500 would be on the cards


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 December 2015)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> One thing for sure though is the commodities crisis is going to go down in history as a major financial event, its like the world needs the next event to be bigger than the last




There's plenty of reports that suggest the US shale oil companies are losing money in a big way.

Most of the cost was up front for development, it doesn't cost much to simply keep pumping, so they can't simply shut down and avoid the situation indeed they're better off continuing to produce.

I expect that a lot of commodities would be much the same. Huge upfront cost to get a mine etc into production and at current prices they're not profitable, or at least nowhere near as profitable as they were expected to be a few years ago. But so long as the day to day cost of operating is lower than the selling price of the commodity, they'll rationally continue to operate even if the operation as a whole is a loss.

The trouble with this, of course, is that even though continuing to operate might make sense, if you've got debts to repay and are running at an overall loss then at some point you run out of money.

Anecdotally at least, there's plenty of reports suggesting that the US shale oil companies are slowly but surely heading this way. Keep pumping because that slows the rate of cash burn, but they're still burning cash and at some point they hit the wall. Given the size of the industry and amount of capital deployed, that could well turn into a rather significant financial event especially if it turns out that one or more financial companies are heavily exposed to these shale oil companies (that bit being pure speculation on my part but it's not impossible that this is the case).


----------



## Quant (14 December 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Anecdotally at least, there's plenty of reports suggesting that the US shale oil companies are slowly but surely heading this way. Keep pumping because that slows the rate of cash burn, but they're still burning cash and at some point they hit the wall. Given the size of the industry and amount of capital deployed, that could well turn into a rather significant financial event especially if it turns out that one or more financial companies are heavily exposed to these shale oil companies (that bit being pure speculation on my part but it's not impossible that this is the case).




Not heavily promoted in MSM but there is plenty of evidence out there that doubtful debt in the energy sector is as large or larger than subprime saga of GFC . I am led to believe that a large portion of this debt rolls over in 2016  . The numbers i've seen would suggest that if we don't see a significant rise in oil prices there will be bankruptcies . GFC 2 is a possibility  .

Ive been researching this for a few months and the incidences of news on this is on the rise  , interest rate talk by Fed will not be helping this situation . Company bonds in energy sector are giving signs of the quickly rising risk levels .   """  By the end of December, about one-third of exploration and production (E&P) high yield bonds trade at distressed levels (at spreads of more than 10% over Treasuries). ""

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/high-yield-bond-spreads-by-sector-2015-10

http://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-sectors-junk-bond-pain-spreads-1449657000

The size of the doubtful debt is an extremely worrying phenomenon with a google search finding what amounts to some frightening numbers  

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1503f.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ressed-debt-traders-see-worst-losses-since-08

http://www.reuters.com/article/morocco-refinery-debts-idUSL8N13F28320151125#w5e6m4ovVk2M1I0k.97

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busin...r-98-of-russian-corporate-profits/535337.html

http://dailyreckoning.com/oil-sector-debt/

Finding the correct numbers and an accurate debt and bond expiry schedule is a difficult task but I would suggest that being heavy on financials in 2016 is a very risky proposition along with the obvious energy sector . Interesting times ahead ...

This is probably not the correct place XAO for such a discussion as it has ramifications world wide

addition here that's a real sign of the times piece of news 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanv...ng-to-fuel-its-100-billion-oil-war-with-debt/


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 December 2015)

down 110points so far this week, won't be good if US goes negative again at close in the morning

if this is all based around the Fed raising then they just have to get on with now, imagine if they don't raise the cash rate


----------



## PinguPingu (16 December 2015)

Someone's buying! Zone of support ~4900-5000 holds again by the thinnest of margins. Now where do we bounce to eh?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 December 2015)

solid day, see if can hold onto gains and move forward


----------



## shouldaindex (17 December 2015)

Here's some interesting stats from the U.S Markets (that could also drive the XAO direction).

- Made gains 24 of the last 27 years between December 15 and December 31.

- PE has contracted 13 out of the last 13 times 3 months after the first FED hike.


----------



## Junior (17 December 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Here's some interesting stats from the U.S Markets (that could also drive the XAO direction).
> 
> - Made gains 24 of the last 27 years between December 15 and December 31.
> 
> - PE has contracted 13 out of the last 13 times 3 months after the first FED hike.




Thanks Index.

I guess the difference this time...is that the Fed spent at least a year priming markets for this one, small hike.  Has this ever occurred before?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 December 2015)

good couple of days but looks like back to same issues

the one thing to come out of the Fed notes is this desire or schedule to lift rates 4 times in 2016!


----------



## Logique (18 December 2015)

The Little Aussie Battler $AUD will be doing the Limbo!


----------



## Logique (4 January 2016)

For what it's worth. So much of this across the net. 



> Milton Black - psychic and astrologer
> http://www.miltonblack.com.au/thismonth.htm#monthly
> 
> January 2016 Astrological Forecast
> ...







> World Psychic – LaMont Hamilton
> Complete World Psychic Predictions for 2015-2016
> http://worldpsychic.org/world-predictions/predictions-2016-part-i/
> 
> ...


----------



## CanOz (4 January 2016)

I am struggling desperately too avoid being to bearish, but to be honest there is not allot technically to be bullish about...Fundamentally things are not that good either. Seems Europe and Japan have shown their QE hands and the market has pretty much digested that. China seems tool blocked to do much more and yet we're still seeing contraction and now the sellers have returned to their equity market...The Yen and Vix look set to trade higher, never a bullish scenario. 

Anyway, I'm glad I'm not long only


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 January 2016)

here we go again, 4 days of losses so far this year

global instability at the moment in financial markets, all looks set to continue


----------



## shouldaindex (6 January 2016)

We've been in the 5000-5500 range now for most of 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 (Roughly 80% of the time).

In recent cycles, the permanent gains have been made within the first 12-24 months of the start of a bull market, so the intial bull run got us from 3900 to 5000 in about 15 months, and we've been in that 2nd stage of retracing any further gains for a while now.


----------



## howmanyru (6 January 2016)

The XAO is trying to stay above 5000, that's the bottom of the trend line since the GFC lows. Don't know that it will hold above that though, not this year.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (7 January 2016)

five ordinary days so far for 2016

cant see this turning until there is some sort of catastrophe in the financial markets otherwise its going to be a long painful period of 4-5years I feel


----------



## howmanyru (7 January 2016)

Here we go, US pre market is horrid.


----------



## shouldaindex (9 January 2016)

Looks like we could be in for another one of those 'Friday afternoon - Monday morning' headline days we've had recently.

ASX Futures currently down -80 points, on the back of a sharp turnaround (down) in Europe and U.S in the past few hours, but still half the day left in the U.S.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 January 2016)

Starting to get that sickly feeling.

Today (or last Fri) was meant to be a relief day, according to my questionable modelling.  When the expected relief day is met with selling, there's a fair bit more pain ahead.  

Due to the falls over the last 5 days, I'm thinking the chart will want to form a small tight flag (reduced volatility and volumes) before continuing down.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 January 2016)

with whats happening with financial stocks its understandable where the ASX is

you have close to 60% of the index down significantly, 30-50% falls


----------



## shouldaindex (11 January 2016)

Here's the ranking of sectors since the 5950 level peak in April:

Outperformed:
1. Utilities
2. Industrials
3. Healthcare
4. Info Tech
5. Staples
6. Telecom

-----
XAO
-----

Underperformed:
7. Financial
8. Materials
9. Energy
10. Discretionaries

BHP was $39 (currrently $15) less than 18 months ago.

Just a guess but I think the 18 months since April 2015 (so til this November) could be a similar period where you think how much could really happen that quickly, and you look back and realise a lot.  Not many bear markets last more than 18 months, and you don't want them.


----------



## satanoperca (11 January 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> Not many bear markets last more than 18 months, and you don't want them.




Maybe this bear is a little more pissed off.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 January 2016)

That was a spiteful pullback after a promising rally this morning. Different to the previous 5000 support/pivot area price action.


----------



## Bill M (13 January 2016)

I am the first to admit that I don't know much about technical analysis so that's why I am posting here rather than ruin a good thread with the experts.

We first hit these levels we are currently at almost 10 years ago. 5,000 on the XAO is an extremely strong support line. Everytime we hit it (or just below it) the market jumps. People start buying and I have too. We have hit this level or just near it around 8 times in the last 6 Months. (give or take 100 points)

Putting everything into context, I maintain my position, this is a very good entry point to get set with your long term portfolios, (just my opinion of course). I have pumped both mine and my wife's super up, just a bit, not massive amounts, just in case we get better opportunities later.

I believe the world is not coming to an end. I do not believe the China story is over, they will be consuming for a long time yet, all be it at a slower pace. I also believe Australia is not a basket case, we do have some edges that not many places can match. 

In summary, the value is there right now (distributions a gross 8%, without capital gains) for long term investors. Can it go lower? It could, your choice, sit on the sidelines and wait if you like but the market just might go the other way. And before anyone says it, yes the value might get even better but what if it doesn't and heads well north? Good luck with your investments.


----------



## Newt (13 January 2016)

Bill M said:


> I am the first to admit that I don't know much about technical analysis so that's why I am posting here rather than ruin a good thread with the experts.
> 
> We first hit these levels we are currently at almost 10 years ago. 5,000 on the XAO is an extremely strong support line. Everytime we hit it (or just below it) the market jumps. People start buying and I have too. We have hit this level or just near it around 8 times in the last 6 Months. (give or take 100 points)
> 
> ...






Great post Bill.
I don't invest a lot of energy in (trying to) predict market direction, but trend and support areas (and general price volatility) since April 2015 on the weekly XAO fit well with 2011.  That is, quite a lot of eratic price movement, possibly sketching out new support for positive moves in many months time.  Difficult to see a reason for the world coming to an end right now - cautious buying at lows for long term portfolios seems a wise contrarian investment.


----------



## Logique (14 January 2016)

The midday news, and on cue, it's Craig James of CommSec.

It opened down, but it's coming back, says 'Pollyanna' Craig, surprising everybody  

Sigh.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 January 2016)

sometimes the market opens up in the morning down

and quite frequently it close down for the day up


----------



## CanOz (14 January 2016)

> We first hit these levels we are currently at almost 10 years ago. 5,000 on the XAO is an extremely strong support line. Everytime we hit it (or just below it) the market jumps. People start buying and I have too. We have hit this level or just near it around 8 times in the last 6 Months. (give or take 100 points)




The key here, is how the market reacts to the retest of that level

Buyers, or sellers?


----------



## CanOz (14 January 2016)

Dona Ferentes said:


> sometimes the market opens up in the morning down
> 
> and quite frequently it close down for the day up




This is a bit confusing but yeah, quite often the market gaps down on the open and then closes up for the session. This is due to the overnight action in the futures that trade correlated to the overseas markets. It could be profit taking on shorts, or new long positions.


----------



## shouldaindex (14 January 2016)

The 2 times 5000 didn't hold, was in bear markets in 2008 and 2011.

So it's a redundent situation, 5000 will hold except in bear markets (obviously by definition).


----------



## shouldaindex (14 January 2016)

Also just noticed the XAO has outperformed the DJI by 7% since December 16.

That's a good piece of news for the XAO as the DJI CAPE is overvalued by 30% from median.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 January 2016)

Logique said:


> The midday news, and on cue, it's Craig James of CommSec.
> 
> It opened down, but it's coming back, says 'Pollyanna' Craig, surprising everybody
> 
> Sigh.



You're not taking a dislike toward little Craig are you? 

 = Majority of market commentators are none the wiser than you or I. If they are privy to market moving information they aren't gonna tell anyway. More people on the wrong side of the move is great for business.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 January 2016)

All up from here?  Bought the 200 at 4800 so go go go.


----------



## PennD (18 January 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> All up from here?  Bought the 200 at 4800 so go go go.




I reckon... bear trap and off to the races


----------



## Junior (18 January 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> You're not taking a dislike toward little Craig are you?




Hey, be careful what you say about Craig James, he's a unit!!


----------



## tinhat (18 January 2016)

Men's Health Magazine is making its annual search for the ultimate everyday "Man" and it seems CommSec chief economist Craig James, a regular contributor on Nine, Seven, Ten and Sky News, is an unlikely favourite after this snap.

James, a 49-year-old married father of three, was urged by his family to enter the contest and says he was happy to show off the result of many hard hours in the gym given that not long ago he was 15 kilos heavier.

"I'm 70 kilos now but I used to be 85 and which doesn't seem like a lot but I'm only a small guy (157cm)," James told Confidential.

The winner will be announced at a red carpet event in Sydney in June.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/en...aig-james-effort/story-e6frewz0-1226022049971


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (20 January 2016)

doesn't seem to be any end to this selling 

it appears the world financial markets are just hanging on


----------



## shouldaindex (20 January 2016)

I'm following the gradient from April 2015.


----------



## PennD (21 January 2016)




----------



## shouldaindex (22 January 2016)

Do parallel trend channels work better than other methods?

I know last year the most commonly used was the bottom trend line to support 5000, so seems outcomes can vary.


----------



## PennD (22 January 2016)

What other methods?  I dont know much but it seams to me if the "other" trend line was so important we should have fallen further by now?  So i looked for a reason snd found this. Time will tell


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (27 January 2016)

the commodities crunch gets a lot of the press, but the bear market in the big4 banks is certainly hitting the market

Nab and Anz would be down close to 30%, CBA and WBC probably 20% from the high of last year


----------



## notting (29 January 2016)

> The Aussie sharemarket cops a lot of flak as a (perceived) perennial underperformer, but in a month of global turmoil it actually outperformed many regional markets and most major bourses.
> 
> The ASX200 lost 5.5 per cent in its worst start to the year since 2010, but Japan's Nikkei is down 8.8 per cent - despite more easing by its central bank - the Hang Seng in Hong Kong has lost nearly 11 per cent, Singapore's main index is down 10 per cent and the Shanghai Composite has slumped 23 per cent.
> 
> ...




It has felt so much worse than a 5.5% decline even though that is quite a bit for a single month!


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 February 2016)

All Ords managed to eke out less than 1% gain today. Bunch of soft (beep)s. :frown:


----------



## shouldaindex (2 February 2016)

Man I'm so bored.  

We're been at 5100 about 12 times in the past 4 calendar years.

There's no Recession imminent and it's a low growth environment for the ASX Large Caps, so could keep going that way.


----------



## satanoperca (2 February 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> Man I'm so bored.
> 
> We're been at 5100 about 12 times in the past 4 calendar years.
> 
> There's no Recession imminent and it's a low growth environment for the ASX Large Caps, so could keep going that way.




Low growth or no growth, with IR's lowest in history not even working, world deflation has arrived and I expect in the next year or so we will be in a recession.

The property market is the only thing that is keeping us going, but property doesn't create long term growth unless we keep on selling everything to foreigners until there is nothing left.

To make things worse, the govnuts are talking about tax reform, just hike the GST, hardly reform.


----------



## shouldaindex (2 February 2016)

Interesting macro outlook from some Superfund managers:

http://www.afr.com/personal-finance...ep-pace-over-next-seven-years-20160129-gmgous

I have a back of the envelope calculation that suggests you'll still be able to get the XAO in the 5000s in the 2020s decade, just my opinion.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 February 2016)

Ordinary couple of days, pretty tough for long term investors going through this turmoil

Results are going to be watched very closely,


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 February 2016)

satanoperca said:


> Low growth or no growth, with IR's lowest in history not even working, world deflation has arrived and I expect in the next year or so we will be in a recession.



For once I agree there is some truth in your eternal pessimism. Company outlooks tending to drift worse.


----------



## satanoperca (4 February 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> For once I agree there is some truth in your eternal pessimism. Company outlooks tending to drift worse.




There is a difference between pessimism and realism. I work on the later, plus always had more success being a short seller, but for the last few years have focused on business development instead.


----------



## notting (4 February 2016)

Simply an amazing rally consider, first a slow down in US manufacturing, then a disappointing services number pointing to less global growth.  Then a massive resource rally simply on the back of a weakening US $ :screwy:

Really if the fed doesn't hike so hard, it's simply not going to make that much difference and with the US$ slightly weaker against the OZ is not good for our export margins, terms of trade!!! Remember?.  :nuts:

Short squeeze.


----------



## skc (4 February 2016)

notting said:


> Simply an amazing rally consider, first a slow down in US manufacturing, then a disappointing services number pointing to less global growth.  Then a massive resource rally simply on the back of a weakening US $ :screwy:
> 
> Really if the fed doesn't hike so hard, it's simply not going to make that much difference and with the US$ slightly weaker against the OZ is not good for our export margins, terms of trade!!! Remember?.  :nuts:
> 
> Short squeeze.




Haven't seen a day like these for some time. The materials sector was quite depressed, but still, almost every major resource company was up 8-14%. Just stunning.

I wonder if there'd be some hangover tomorrow.


----------



## CanOz (4 February 2016)

skc said:


> I wonder if there'd be some hangover tomorrow.




There will be if this retests the 99 level again....


----------



## PinguPingu (5 February 2016)

Relief rally for the likes of BHP, RIO/short squeeze?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 February 2016)

more trouble for the XAO today, looks like its going to stay under 5000 for a long time

most sectors would be in bear market at the moment, just amazing


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 February 2016)

Now that was a decent forced sell off. 4800 test in the near future? Selling the most at the low is surely near.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 February 2016)

always enjoy the IG update every morning from Evan, couldnt agree with him more, there has to be some sort of catastrophe in the markets for all this fear to end, 

also enjoy Cramer's view at CNBC regarding the global situation, just no clarity at the moment 

another tough day, feel for the long term shareholders out there


----------



## Muschu (10 February 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> always enjoy the IG update every morning from Evan, couldnt agree with him more, there has to be some sort of catastrophe in the markets for all this fear to end,
> 
> also enjoy Cramer's view at CNBC regarding the global situation, just no clarity at the moment
> 
> another tough day, feel for the long term shareholders out there




Well I'm pretty much retired and generally a long term holder, although fortunately 30% in cash.  When I saw the market was down 120+ points earlier today I decided to go to beach.  
When I got home the decline was 60 points.
Seems easiest way to got the market back on track is to go to the beach more often....


----------



## Bill M (10 February 2016)

Muschu said:


> Well I'm pretty much retired and generally a long term holder, although fortunately 30% in cash.  When I saw the market was down 120+ points earlier today I decided to go to beach.
> When I got home the decline was 60 points.
> Seems easiest way to got the market back on track is to go to the beach more often....




I saw the overnight closes around the world and thought? Are we there yet? So went for a long walk, cut the grass, had lunch and I'm back online now after watching a movie.

My bond ETF's all positive. My share ETF's negative.

My NAB down, my CBA up. The biggest question is, what to top up on? Not selling anything (not even my gold Uncle Festivus) 

Can somebody ring the bell when we hit bottom? I want to buy more stocks at very cheap prices.


----------



## Muschu (10 February 2016)

Bill M said:


> I saw the overnight closes around the world and thought? Are we there yet? So went for a long walk, cut the grass, had lunch and I'm back online now after watching a movie.
> 
> My bond ETF's all positive. My share ETF's negative.
> 
> ...




I did end up selling a few WBC at $28.49 and buying the same value in AFI at $5.34... Mainly because I am too top heavy in banks.

Just give some stability..


----------



## Bill M (10 February 2016)

Muschu said:


> I did end up selling a few WBC at $28.49 and buying the same value in AFI at $5.34... Mainly because I am too top heavy in banks.
> 
> Just give some stability..




I just did a quick check on NAB.

NAB first hit these prices in Feb 1999, so for 17 years NAB went nowhere, unbelievable.

I bought, sold, rebought and held throughout that whole time, it has been a steady provider even at it's current lows.

So much negativity around. LIC's and ETF's are good for us retired persons, nothing wrong with balancing it out a bit.


----------



## Bill M (10 February 2016)

Watch this video, I agree with him.

If you are not a member, join, it is for free and they do not spam.

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network122449.html

Cheers.


----------



## luutzu (10 February 2016)

Bill M said:


> I just did a quick check on NAB.
> 
> NAB first hit these prices in Feb 1999, so for 17 years NAB went nowhere, unbelievable.
> 
> ...




the same adjusted for new shares issued?

I missed out on the banks big time.  Was lucky to have gotten out before the GFC, then thought to get back into them soon after but worried that the whole GFC hasn't gone through the system yet... then just missed it completely.


----------



## PennD (10 February 2016)

Bill M said:


> Can somebody ring the bell when we hit bottom? I want to buy more stocks at very cheap prices.







My Ding Dong guess


----------



## Bill M (10 February 2016)

PennD said:


> View attachment 65845
> 
> 
> My Ding Dong guess




Thanks my friend.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 February 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> also enjoy Cramer's view at CNBC regarding the global situation, just no clarity at the moment




That bloke is as close to a fruit loop as I have ever seen and therefore switch channels rather than listen to his raving. Talks (rather nonsensical bursts of words) up more downside when the markets turn down and is all praises when the markets go up. One for the Nevilles.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 February 2016)

Cramer has a list which has grown out to about 14 or so items as to why the bottom has not yet been found for stocks, its probably a very good summary of the turmoil/negativity which is bracing the global financial markets

BillM, as you indicate NAB has gone nowhere for 15-16 yrs, it would be interesting to see the dividend growth over that time as well


----------



## Bill M (11 February 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> BillM, as you indicate NAB has gone nowhere for 15-16 yrs, it would be interesting to see the dividend growth over that time as well




In 1999 the NAB dividend for the whole calendar year was 58c + 54c = Total $1.12
For the 2015 calendar year the dividends were 99c + 99c = Total $1.98

So even though the price went nowhere for 16 years, the dividend jumped 79% over that period of time. That's probably why I still hold the stock and I might buy a bit more soon.

Source for dividends: http://www.nab.com.au/about-us/shareholder-centre/dividend-information/nab-s-dividend-paymenthistory


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 February 2016)

thanks Bill M

not looking good tomorrow either for the XAO, banking stocks in Europe getting hammered, just massive fear, no trust in anything

this is Cramer's take on things:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/08/cramer-were-nowhere-close-to-stocks-bottoming.html


----------



## fraa (11 February 2016)

not sure Cramer is the best person to listen to...



Toyota Lexcen said:


> thanks Bill M
> 
> not looking good tomorrow either for the XAO, banking stocks in Europe getting hammered, just massive fear, no trust in anything
> 
> ...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 February 2016)

whats your view on the list?

i thinks its a good summary of the factors that are influencing global markets, like Evan Lucas from IG markets i feel there needs to be some sort of capitulation/catastrophe or clarity in the markets to get out of this situation global markets are presently in

from Aug15-Jan16 we traded  around 4800-5300, XAO now made a decisive move down and looks like continuing the downside


----------



## shouldaindex (11 February 2016)

The worry for me is that the upside scenario for the rest of the decade is barely anything compared to the downside.

Let's say we bottom out at around 4500 (further 200 points), which will be at or around our long term average PE and CAPE.

Do we see EPS really growing 40% in the next 5 years, until the next Bear Market? 

(Bear Markets have occurred within 5 years of the last for the past 50 years)  

So even if we say yes to a high growth phase of 40% EPS Growth, with CAPE & PE maintaining at long term averages, and the best possible Bear Market of only -20% in 5 years time, that leaves us at 5100 in 2021 (4500 to 6300 to 5100).  

Also if this picture looks bad, the S&P500 in the U.S will need to gain 30-50% in EPS just to stay where it is now, if / when their CAPE and PE reverts back to their long term averages.


----------



## fraa (11 February 2016)

I too am noob at this but presidental candidates ? really ? And north Korea ? Even zero hedge has better issue selection if you can keep your perma bear eye filters on.

I personally read some macro blogs I have followed for years and trust (ymmv) and also follow some people on twitter I find to have a high s/n ratio.

FT alphaville for example is great they usually have in-depth explainers on big issues driving the market. Michael Pettis is the go to blog for whats going wrong in China (he predicted the whole mess, and no he didnt get lucky like Roubini, he has an entire framework on why China is going kaput years back before it was trendy to be a China bear). 



Toyota Lexcen said:


> whats your view on the list?
> 
> i thinks its a good summary of the factors that are influencing global markets, like Evan Lucas from IG markets i feel there needs to be some sort of capitulation/catastrophe or clarity in the markets to get out of this situation global markets are presently in
> 
> from Aug15-Jan16 we traded  around 4800-5300, XAO now made a decisive move down and looks like continuing the downside


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 February 2016)

yes its all very concerning


----------



## shouldaindex (11 February 2016)

I read that 2 out of 3 Bear Markets regain all their losses within 12 months.

Those are scenarios where there is no Recession / Financial Crisis type outcome.

Whenever the Market hits -20% there are always going to be multiple fears around (1990 Recession, 1994 Bond Crisis, 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, 2002 Tech Bubble, 2008 GFC, 2011 Euro Debt etc) and their eventual outcome has dictated an average 35% swing (So very roughly that would project to an XAO 4000 vs 5500 from here on an average good v bad outcome).

For example the XAO lost about another -30% after Lehman Brothers, so consider if that hadn't have happened, (like how 1998 and 2011 didn't lead to a Recession or GFC and gained an average of 10% in the following 12 months) the type of swing involved in a Yes / No outcome.


----------



## sinner (11 February 2016)

shouldaindex said:


> Do we see EPS really growing 40% in the next 5 years




That's only 7% per annum nominal...not too outrageous.


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 February 2016)

Come on American money. I want you to really give the markets a shake and drop big time. I'm ready.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 February 2016)

very much stuck between the 4800-5000 mark now


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 February 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> very much stuck between the 4800-5000 mark now



4850 maybe for a reverse head and shoulders pattern?


----------



## shouldaindex (24 February 2016)

This year has been driven by Oil price movements. 

Oil: $36 to $26 to $33 to $31

XAO: 5300 to 4800 to 5050 to 4950

Roughly on the same dates.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (26 February 2016)

Yes oil and the imaginary impact it is going to have on the big4,

Like Evan from IG wrote this morning, until people get back into bank stocks its got no hope of getting into the 5000-5400 range and holding if

Whoever tipped XAO to be around 5000  will take out the comp this year


----------



## notting (15 March 2016)

Aus $ takes a hit on RBA minutes and internationals start piling out of our banks.
Meanwhile gold has had some surprisingly bad days since Draghi fired his bazooka which included buying corporate bonds, the last bastion of yield.  Which should be making stocks more attractive given they are all that's left.  So buying banks when they are looking to get over the Ausi $ fall.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 March 2016)

Looks like heading down again, no one trusts the banks world wide and this having major impact on the global financial space

Probably the realisation about growth, I don't trade but for traders these 400points swings look like a given for the next 12-24 mths


----------



## MrBurns (24 March 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Looks like heading down again, no one trusts the banks world wide and this having major impact on the global financial space
> 
> Probably the realisation about growth, I don't trade but for traders these 400points swings look like a given for the next 12-24 mths




Indeed - 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-...provisions-amid-commodity-price-crash/7273046


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 April 2016)

just a very flat market, if the US starts to fall again we headed down to 4700-4800 easy

what will turn the market around in 2016?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2016)

Speccies - huge day across the board.

Used to be that Aus spec market would ebb and flow.  But nowadays there's always soemthing moving.


----------



## CanOz (11 April 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Speccies - huge day across the board.
> 
> Used to be that Aus spec market would ebb and flow.  But nowadays there's always soemthing moving.




The SPI appeared to be accumulated all morning, until finally squeezing some shorts out just before lunch...some interesting games going on today.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 April 2016)

the XAO well and truly in a bear market, it does nothing with positive news/data and gets walloped with anything negative


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 April 2016)

Looks like the sellers are sitting back for a higher price. Who gonna buy now?


----------



## CanOz (14 April 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Looks like the sellers are sitting back for a higher price. Who gonna buy now?




Expecting rotational trading until the jobs report comes out...


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 April 2016)

Oh I didn't think of that. One hour to go for the release of information at 11.30 a.m.


----------



## CanOz (14 April 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Oh I didn't think of that. One hour to go for the release of information at 11.30 a.m.




This is handy to look at before the market opens, even the day before...

Economic Calandar


----------



## Wysiwyg (14 April 2016)

CanOz said:


> This is handy to look at before the market opens, even the day before...
> 
> Economic Calandar



Thanks for that. I also use FX Factory when I am short term trading.


----------



## CanOz (14 April 2016)

Spi selling off, no more kool aid


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 April 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Breakout



Time to sell then at least for a rally pullback.


----------



## notting (20 April 2016)

Yeah I'm thinking good time to step aside and look for what is going to happen next.


----------



## notting (20 April 2016)

> Macquarie's equity strategy desk has told clients to have a very serious think about this rally in materials stocks urging investors to maintain an underweight exposure.
> 
> Basically, the sector is expensive. You might be surprised to hear it has never been more expensive trading at 24 times forecast earnings.
> 
> If history is any guide, buying materials at a time when they are expensive points to an annual loss of around 10 per cent.




The brains trust appears in agreement.

The Doha 'Dho' which was always just a kind of propaganda mission has been softened by the Kuwait strike. But even if oil does go all the way to 50, which seems pretty good at this point.  It isn't!  Most are still stuffed around there especially Ausi oilers and gas producers.


----------



## Wysiwyg (20 April 2016)

notting said:


> Yeah I'm thinking good time to step aside and look for what is going to happen next.



On the S&P 500, the low in August last year and the lower low in Feb this year has me doubting a further sustained rally for U.S. markets (and resultantly Aust.). I fear the obligatory bear market is nearing.


----------



## CanOz (20 April 2016)

Oil and China today....this was going pair shaped during the Kuroda speech i think...had Waza here so wasn't sure what caused it all...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 April 2016)

I've been offloading like crazy this morning, biting my tongue on some.  Looking weak across the board.


----------



## CanOz (27 April 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've been offloading like crazy this morning, biting my tongue on some.  Looking weak across the board.




We're at an interesting juncture. I'm bullish above 5200....but if that get taken out....there would have to be some laggard longs in pain...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 April 2016)

CanOz said:


> We're at an interesting juncture. I'm bullish above 5200....but if that get taken out....there would have to be some laggard longs in pain...




I feel a bit like the dog in the front seat this morning.


----------



## CanOz (27 April 2016)

lol....

The Heng Seng looks like its rolled over, or putting in a new bracket, perhaps the SPI will fold if that test 21000 today...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (27 April 2016)

Tomorrow will be one of those **** days where there's no opportunities anywhere.  Friday also.  Might as well turn the comp off.


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 April 2016)

James Foster ‏@JFosterFM 16m16 minutes ago

AU Q1 CPI: Core (trimmed mean) +0.2%q/q (exp +0.5%, prior +0.6%) & +1.7%y/y (exp +2.0%, prior +2.1%). #ausbiz


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 April 2016)

Joules MM1
2016-Apr-27 12:02:37
	claw on that one, bears !
Joules MM1
2016-Apr-27 12:02:16
	Joules MM1


> 2016-Mar-10 14:03:33
> right or wrong i've just re-committed super funds to aussie only stocks



Joules MM1
2016-Apr-27 12:01:33
	(phew) i recently renewed all super cash into aggressive aussie funds too.....

tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
bwark.... puck puck puck.......


----------



## notting (27 April 2016)

All the heads are sayen the central banks have lost their mojo.
Yet we get soft reports from The States and the markets still treat the bad as good.
Be treading carefully at this point...


----------



## notting (27 April 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I feel a bit like the dog in the front seat this morning.





Just don't be the dumber dog that just says, 'f^ck it,' and starts driving!


----------



## notting (27 April 2016)

Usually when the AU$ takes a hit the internationals start selling our shares too.
Gotta bit of time before they wake up! :car:


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 April 2016)

There was a great rush to the previous highs and now all those buyers that haven't exited are caught in bad positions. Got me too when I exited from a 5 day short for break even. Those moves are hard to know what is going to happen, either break higher or pull back like it has today.


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 April 2016)

Financials commentator language was bearish too but it should be known they are intentionally misleading. The planned moves are not general knowledge.


----------



## CanOz (27 April 2016)

Iron ore hit limit down today, i'm sure thats put the book on offer.....


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 April 2016)

weak longs flushed


----------



## CanOz (27 April 2016)

Joules MM1 said:


> weak longs flushed




Rumours of intervention to flush out the evil speculators


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 April 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Tomorrow will be one of those **** days where there's no opportunities anywhere.  Friday also.  Might as well turn the comp off.




And next week starts the sell off, imo.

Buy side is non-existent today.


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 May 2016)

wot thay sed
rate cut


----------



## kid hustlr (3 May 2016)

wow can't beleive they cut.

paranoid about deflation it seems.


----------



## CanOz (3 May 2016)

the SPI did 3 x its average daily range today


----------



## kid hustlr (3 May 2016)

skyquake said something yesterday about just how much short interest there was in our markets which really hit home with me.

looked like a lot of guys bailing in the first hour or 2 today. then you get the perfect storm of a slightly unexpected cut and the shorts just run for cover everywhere.

might be more to this, perhaps the last 6-8 months were a significant bottom and now we are due for a run.


----------



## CanOz (3 May 2016)

kid hustlr said:


> skyquake said something yesterday about just how much short interest there was in our markets which really hit home with me.
> 
> looked like a lot of guys bailing in the first hour or 2 today. then you get the perfect storm of a slightly unexpected cut and the shorts just run for cover everywhere.
> 
> might be more to this, perhaps the last 6-8 months were a significant bottom and now we are due for a run.




Yeah that drop lower in the first 15 minutes looked like a minwa special....trap a few more shorts and grind the rest out all day long...


I agree, i think we could get some persistence here. we're above some key levels now, 5300 and so on...5500 would be a bit of an ask i reckon...talking SPI here


----------



## notting (3 May 2016)

Yeah, but it was a fundamentally bad day with the ANZ result and the RBA rate cut was a very good decision. Mr Stevens is a legend.  Stopped talking and just pulled the trigger when the time was right.  That will keep the long Ausi enthusiasts away for a while.
Trust me we needed it!
Japan almost looks like it's falling apart and the rest of the world is following in their footsteps.
Don't get too long for too long.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 May 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Financials commentator language was bearish too but it should be known they are intentionally misleading. The planned moves are not general knowledge.



Well there's the move. See how the financial market players try to manipulate the process. Next will be language that is true so it keeps the listeners in two minds. Listen but form your own judgement.



I shot the shepherd, but I did not shoot the deputy

Shepherd John Brown always hated me
For what I don't know
Every time that I plant a seed
He said, "Kill it before it grows"
He said, "Kill it before it grows", I say


----------



## skc (3 May 2016)

kid hustlr said:


> wow can't beleive they cut.
> 
> paranoid about deflation it seems.




It was quite unbelievable... not just the cut but the market's reaction to the cut.

I really thought that we will get a sugar hit for 30 minutes and go weak into the close. Yet the banks and REITs partied on like it was 1999. We are seeing top tier REITs and infrastructure now yielding <<4%, and your plain vanilla rent collector REIT yielding <5%.


----------



## notting (3 May 2016)

skc said:


> It was quite unbelievable... not just the cut but the market's reaction to the cut........
> I really thought that we will get a sugar hit for 30 minutes and go weak into the close.




We are small enough for a  day fake out.
See what tomorrow brings!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2016)

skc said:


> It was quite unbelievable... not just the cut but the market's reaction to the cut.
> 
> I really thought that we will get a sugar hit for 30 minutes and go weak into the close. Yet the banks and REITs partied on like it was 1999. We are seeing top tier REITs and infrastructure now yielding <<4%, and your plain vanilla rent collector REIT yielding <5%.




In times of uncertainty....time to bring back the chick.


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 May 2016)

CommSec Verified account ‏@CommSec

CBA @commbank has pencilled in another 0.25% cut to the cash rate in August #ausbiz #RBA

............................
	

		
			
		

		
	




Pete Wargent ‏@PeteWargent

Breaking: Cost of living falls; still beats alternative #ausbiz 



............................

Callam Pickering ‏@CallamPickering

Building approvals receive a second wind http://www.cpeconomics.com/#!Building-approvals-continue-recovery/c1tye/572805410cf2265cabe659f3 … #ausbiz #property



............................

Callam Pickering ‏@CallamPickering

RBA interest rates aren't as low as you think http://www.cpeconomics.com/#!Intere...dful-inflation/c1tye/57282f540cf274df4ab3e256 … #ausbiz


----------



## CanOz (4 May 2016)

Thanks for the cost of living decrease Australia!

Thanks for the Charts Joules!


----------



## notting (4 May 2016)

CanOz said:


> Thanks for the cost of living decrease Australia!




LOL.  Capitalism is working for Australia, what is everyone complaining about.?
We haven't even started printing yet. 
The worm has turned. Watch the US$
Goldies are a mystery, baby with the bathwater? Still the US$.


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 May 2016)

was yesterdays move a little fake-out for aus indexes, maybe a little blow offish ?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 May 2016)

tomorrow will be average as well with NAB reporting, but it maybe a good thing that all 4 will have now reported, it can only be the financials to drive the index

but with ANZ still to cut final dividend this doubt is going to linger with the XAO

up and down 4800-5400 bound


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 May 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> .....it can only be the financials to drive the index
> 
> but with ANZ still to cut final dividend this doubt is going to linger with the XAO
> 
> ...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2016)

I don't remember markets being this chaotic for a long time.  All over the bloody shop the last 3 days.

If it ranges without too much whipsawing, that would be good.  Up tomorrow?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 May 2016)

3 months of the XAO doing well over the XXJ (feb-april), be interesting to see where it goes from here

whats going to take it over 5300-5400?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I don't remember markets being this chaotic for a long time.  All over the bloody shop the last 3 days.
> 
> If it ranges without too much whipsawing, that would be good.  Up tomorrow?




yes its very frustrating GB, XAO has gone nowhere for 8-9yrs? people who survived the GFC would now be scratching their heads wondering what is going on


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 May 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> 3 months of the XAO doing well over the XXJ (feb-april), be interesting to see where it goes from here
> 
> whats going to take it over 5300-5400?




maybe follow the small ords ($XSO) , when the day is red or indecisive look to see if the small ords is leading the way.......even for allowing the current hit-up by $XGD and cupla components within the small ords the flying 20 within is suggesting speculative money is well at work in aus market typical of a bullish period

the comps within the xso are not within the xao ....in that respect it is worth watching the conv/divergence 

#ideas


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2016)

I know it sounds extreme, but we're about to have a massive bull run or severe correction.  Starting tomorrow.  4/5/16.  All my indicators are going wild.  Anyone else?


----------



## CanOz (4 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I know it sounds extreme, but we're about to have a massive bull run or severe correction.  Starting tomorrow.  4/5/16.  All my indicators are going wild.  Anyone else?




LOL...we're at a critical juncture....and today was a low volume retracement...like to see a rotational day in the US tonight


----------



## skc (4 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> In times of uncertainty....time to bring back the chick.








Toyota Lexcen said:


> tomorrow will be average as well with NAB reporting, but it maybe a good thing that all 4 will have now reported, it can only be the financials to drive the index
> 
> but with ANZ still to cut final dividend this doubt is going to linger with the XAO
> 
> up and down 4800-5400 bound




Today's carnage is all in the resources (and Woolies). And to put things in perspective, this is the XMJ chart for 2016.

We went up from 6000 to ~8500 (+>40%) in the space of 3 months. Today's whack was about 1/5 of the move... so not insignificant but it only took us back to the level of about a week ago.

I'd be worried if the sell off continues tomorrow AND the financials get dragged into it. The NAB reporting will definitely be interesting. What's the bet that they are working overtime on their dividend payout policy?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 May 2016)

skc said:


>




The avatar.


----------



## kid hustlr (5 May 2016)

skc said:


> Today's carnage is all in the resources (and Woolies). And to put things in perspective, this is the XMJ chart for 2016.
> 
> We went up from 6000 to ~8500 (+>40%) in the space of 3 months. Today's whack was about 1/5 of the move... so not insignificant but it only took us back to the level of about a week ago.
> 
> I'd be worried if the sell off continues tomorrow AND the financials get dragged into it. The NAB reporting will definitely be interesting. What's the bet that they are working overtime on their dividend payout policy?




Good points. Yesterday does kind of look like a blow off on the index but the underlying stocks held up pretty well in the main. If we get a broad based sell off today I think it adds weight to this being an interim top.


----------



## notting (6 May 2016)

notting said:


> LOL.  Capitalism is working for Australia, what is everyone complaining about.?




America


----------



## CanOz (9 May 2016)

Got a nice tail on the SPI, can we push higher from here today? I'd like to see 5271 taken out with some volume. Fridays volume, according to the End of Day report, was 48624 contracts, almost as high as the day of the rate announcement....and we've got the tail. Should be bullish.


----------



## CanOz (9 May 2016)

Didn't even get to fill the gap....these guys wouldn't have a bar of it....


----------



## CanOz (9 May 2016)

HK is a drag....despite the divergence in the two markets, when HK is open, its still the boss.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 May 2016)

Wow .... stocks ... new yearly highs, breakouts, near breakouts, new up trends evolving, uptrend continuations .... what a (blue sky) day.


----------



## Logique (11 May 2016)

Had a long hard look, trying to be bullish, but just can't get convinced. Oil price off the lows, big deal.

"Sell in May and go away" goes the old saying. Although we don't invest on basis of sayings. 

Remaining defensive.


----------



## CanOz (11 May 2016)

My biggest issue with this rally is the lack of participation by Asia. It seems the HK Markets might finally see some good short covering today, that would help. The NK had a good day yesterday and the weaker Yen is helping.  Shanghai is on the nose but no one seems to care at the moment. Korea might get a lift here too. Some more participation by the rest of Asia would give me more confidence in the rally.

The US is looking good, the Vix is dropping hard...but getting close again to support. 

Maybe sell in June and go away


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 May 2016)

Profit taking as one could almost expect today. Have never been able to  buy high, sell higher confidently because of the professional money sell offs although I know it works over the longer term.


----------



## CanOz (11 May 2016)

The HHI gapped high on the open, just at a point that one could start to expect some shorts to cover, but none did...just more longs getting out. Every day has been the same thing, sell rallies. Every time this happens the SPI sells off. On one occasion the HHI was very offered, yet the SPI stayed in a flat range with dips being bought. As soon as the HHI went to lunch the SPI rallied 20 points (one for the playbook). If somehow the HHI could rally and take out todays HOD i would expect to see some shorts run, the SPI should rally hard.


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 May 2016)

CanOz said:


> The HHI gapped high on the open, just at a point that one could start to expect some shorts to cover, but none did...just more longs getting out. Every day has been the same thing, sell rallies. Every time this happens the SPI sells off. On one occasion the HHI was very offered, yet the SPI stayed in a flat range with dips being bought. As soon as the HHI went to lunch the SPI rallied 20 points (one for the playbook). If somehow the HHI could rally and take out todays HOD i would expect to see some shorts run, the SPI should rally hard.




yep, bidding the low....liquidity guys romping around with honkers....bid side still the impulsive side


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 May 2016)

Joules MM1 said:


> yep, bidding the low....liquidity guys romping around with honkers....bid side still the impulsive side




Hi, 3 statements and I have no idea what they mean.  Care to explain?

[edit] first one is ok.  ... [edit] and the 3rd now... still haven't figured out the 2nd


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi, 3 statements and I have no idea what they mean.  Care to explain?
> 
> [edit] first one is ok.  ... [edit] and the 3rd now... still haven't figured out the 2nd




lol, we don't understand each other......it happens, you'll be fine


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi, 3 statements and I have no idea what they mean.  Care to explain?
> 
> [edit] first one is ok.  ... [edit] and the 3rd now... still haven't figured out the 2nd






> Joules MM1
> 2016-May-11 12:49:44
> bought some honkers at 20020's




hows that for clarity ?
(front month contract via  a cfd)

.......altho not much in it.....like busking....

https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 May 2016)

Joules MM1 said:


> hows that for clarity ?
> (front month contract via  a cfd)
> 
> .......altho not much in it.....like busking....
> ...




Alright, if that's how we're going to play...

"If all the animals along the equator were capable of flattery, then Thanksgiving and Hallowe'en... would fall... on the same day".

Your turn.


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 May 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Alright, if that's how we're going to play...
> 
> "If all the animals along the equator were capable of flattery, then Thanksgiving and Hallowe'en... would fall... on the same day".
> 
> Your turn.





that's the way.....youre getting the banter part of the thread.....altho, ya kinda gotta inc something something trading ....mkay 


> Joules MM1
> 2016-May-11 13:53:27
> honkers no bid out at 70



like that


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 May 2016)

Kit Lowe
‏@kit_lowe


> Australia sells  $7B of May  2028 bond at 2.525% $AUD


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 May 2016)

That's the top.  Down from here.  Turn off MR systems imo.


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 May 2016)

trending 




will look for this action to complete when the $XGD has completed its pullback....some ways to go, probably


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 May 2016)

looks like just treading water, gets stuck at 5300-5400

the fear of the FEd raising rates starts to hit global markets again, frustrating times for investors


----------



## History Repeats (24 May 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> looks like just treading water, gets stuck at 5300-5400
> 
> the fear of the FEd raising rates starts to hit global markets again, frustrating times for investors




no chance of rate raise in June, imo. With Brexit a week after the fed, too much risk.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 May 2016)

The Dow Jones Index jumped 200+points last night on speculation that there will be a interest rate rise in June. Last year the speculation of an interest rate rise would have sent the Dow plunging. Go figure eh? Our dollar fell against the US dollar, today will be interesting to see whether the banks continue to slide.


----------



## CanOz (25 May 2016)

nulla nulla said:


> The Dow Jones Index jumped 200+points last night on speculation that there will be a interest rate rise in June. Last year the speculation of an interest rate rise would have sent the Dow plunging. Go figure eh? Our dollar fell against the US dollar, today will be interesting to see whether the banks continue to slide.




I saw something about the banks the other day on TTN, something about how hedge funds had massive short positions against them....i'll try and find it.


----------



## Logique (25 May 2016)

I can make some sense of Europe and Asia market indices atm.  But the US and Australia, completely bipolar.

Possible Brexit the next thing to watch I suppose.  Anyone following this, what are the odds?  Would the UK really take such a drastic step? 

Google is my friend I guess.


----------



## CanOz (25 May 2016)

Logique said:


> I can make some sense of Europe and Asia market indices atm.  But the US and Australia, completely bipolar.
> 
> Possible Brexit the next thing to watch I suppose.  Anyone following this, what are the odds?  Would the UK really take such a drastic step?
> 
> Google is my friend I guess.




Odds are still for the UK staying in, but a new poll should be out tomorrow i think...

A great source of info is twitter, find someone to follow (like me) who has a bunch of cool news feeds and then setup Tweet deck...its the best free news feed going.


----------



## McLovin (25 May 2016)

CanOz said:


> Odds are still for the UK staying in, but a new poll should be out tomorrow i think...




Unlikely they'll leave, but it's hard to know with non-compulsory voting where the Yes/No campaign are split along age lines.

I'm British (And Australian), I'm eligible to vote, but won't be. If I was going to vote, I honestly don't know which way I would go. I'm leaning more toward remain, but many aspect of the EU really grind my gears.

Sorry, probably doesn't belong in the banter thread!


----------



## CanOz (25 May 2016)

McLovin said:


> Unlikely they'll leave, but it's hard to know with non-compulsory voting where the Yes/No campaign are split along age lines.
> 
> I'm British (And Australian), I'm eligible to vote, but won't be. If I was going to vote, I honestly don't know which way I would go. I'm leaning more toward remain, but many aspect of the EU really grind my gears.
> 
> Sorry, probably doesn't belong in the banter thread!




I think its great banter!


----------



## CanOz (25 May 2016)

You can see some of the divergences at play when you compare the strength of the trends in the Global Equity Indices....explains some of the strange patterns/failures.

Red - Bearish
Blue - Neutral
Green - Bullish


----------



## VSntchr (25 May 2016)

McLovin said:


> *I'm British (And Australian)*



I always pictured you as a teenage American who liked to drink and go to parties with cops. 



McLovin said:


> Sorry, probably doesn't belong in the banter thread!



 maybe not XJO banter...but BANTER for sure!


----------



## McLovin (25 May 2016)

VSntchr said:


> I always pictured you as a teenage American who liked to drink and go to parties with cops.




Boom Boom!


----------



## Joules MM1 (31 May 2016)

interesting numbers by this chap

http://www.cpeconomics.com/#!A-shocking-trade-result-in-a-good-way/c1tye/574cf6c20cf2cfb4b4a39bec

for example




Callam Pickering


----------



## rvm (31 May 2016)

Anybody looking at options market - everyday call volumes are higher than puts

5500 call on the left, 5300 put on the right (from today)




This is from Thursday last week - 5500 calls




Here's 5625 call from Friday - Tape looks like a robot separating orders




Also have some activity on 5350 calls earlier.

Looks to me that someone is betting on a rally after June 6 Yellen meeting and betting that she won't raise rates. This is consistent with FTs opinion.

PS - I don't have deep knowledge of options market, only cursory understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.... Opinions from more knowledgeable people would be most welcome.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 June 2016)

Share holders clinging on. Quite different to the past year. The down trend was obviously broken in March/April so maybe no returns lower.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 June 2016)

Need a shock down to suck the resistance out of the 5500 area.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 June 2016)

Still not breaking out higher

The bank sector still a huge Barrier, how. Is it going to get over 5500 and head to 6000


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 June 2016)

Haven't seen Cramer put up a list for a while, from CNBC's blog today:

Jose Linares, Head of Corporate Banking EMEA, J.P. Morgan talks about the big issues in the market today:

"The most pressing issue is we are at the crossroads of politics. If you look at the agenda of what's coming - whether it is the U.S. Presidential elections, Brexit, the referendum for reforms in Italy, the Spanish elections, you just look at all around the globe and the whole host of issues that are unresolved today are creating an issue in terms of confidence in the markets."

put Australia in as well


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 June 2016)

Those blokes are paid to write stories about reasons why. Their excuse books are well worn.


----------



## Logique (12 June 2016)

The Remain case is not a done deal.  Brexit could still happen.



> > EU Referendum: *Massive swing to Brexit* – with just 12 days to go
> > Exclusive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that *55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU* in the 23 June referendum
> > Andrew Grice @IndyPolitics 23 hours  ago
> > http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...oris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html
> > ...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 June 2016)

a few more polls will be interesting in the lead up, 

Most APRA regulated super funds are returning roughly 3% over 7yrs now

 XAO looks likely to get hit again early this week,  maybe Fed settle it down


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 June 2016)

Logique said:


> The Remain case is not a done deal.  Brexit could still happen.



Great Britain has experienced many upheavals yet is still a major part of the free world being both intuitive and critical thinkers for the good of mankind.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 June 2016)

i reckon be close 2% down at the end of the day, 

7 yr return on ApRA regulated super funds at 3%, 7 yr cash return would probably be better


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 June 2016)

Now the market going to get impacted by UK leaving, in 2006 the XAO at 5200 now 2016

Now wonder people keep putting money into their PPOR, cash over 10yrs would be no worse than XAO


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> That's the top.  Down from here.
> 
> View attachment 66727




These trendlines look strange, but they work well.  Expecting another down day before a reasonable pop up to the line.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 June 2016)

Maybe another down day to go.  Support bounce intraday (5250) got sold off.  Now 5200 more likely.  Also got the channel (dotted).


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2016)

Bounced off channel precisely.

Tomorrow's range- *5313* (low).  Maybe a high of *5347*.


----------



## Logique (22 June 2016)

Travel agencies might be swamped _if_ there's a Brexit.  Great time to book that UK holiday at a nice exchange rate.



> Brexit: George Soros warns of 'Black Friday' if Britain exits EU
> - June 22, 2016 - Jane Onyanga-Omara
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...n-exits-eu-20160621-gpoqyy.html#ixzz4CGCQh7Vu
> 
> Billionaire currency trader George Soros believes a British vote to leave the European Union could severely damage living standards and trigger a *plunge in the British pound* bigger than on Black Wednesday nearly 24 years ago....


----------



## noirua (22 June 2016)

Logique said:


> Travel agencies might be swamped _if_ there's a Brexit.  Great time to book that UK holiday at a nice exchange rate.




Would you believe it, John Howard, yes, former PM, appeared on UK TV to support Brexit about half an hour ago - not sure if he's still power walking as he must be about 100 years old by now. Anyway, he says that a country cant control immigration unless they have all their own powers to limit numbers.


----------



## Wysiwyg (22 June 2016)

noirua said:


> Would you believe it, John Howard, yes, former PM, appeared on UK TV to support



That is interesting. I wonder what the market reaction will be if the vote is exit? Mild to severe. :dunno:


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (22 June 2016)

I think if vote to leave we will get 3-4% drop, uncalled for but the markets are still very fragile where anything negative hits the markets at the moment

Ftse, dax etc probably 6-8% fall


----------



## CanOz (22 June 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> I think if vote to leave we will get 3-4% drop, uncalled for but the markets are still very fragile where anything negative hits the markets at the moment
> 
> Ftse, dax etc probably 6-8% fall




Big call, 6-8%...when was the last time we saw that?


----------



## skc (22 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> Big call, 6-8%...when was the last time we saw that?




The market has pretty much assumed a remain win. An exit outcome would most definitely be unexpected and I don't think a fall of 6-8% is out of the question. 

FTSE down 6% is only -360pts... which is similar to where it was last week. 

UK's overall economic impact on the rest of the world is not massive... but if UK can leave, it's not as hard to imagine Greece or Italy having a referendum down the track. A destablised EU is a big deal and the market will be rocked by that.


----------



## CanOz (22 June 2016)

skc said:


> The market has pretty much assumed a remain win. An exit outcome would most definitely be unexpected and I don't think a fall of 6-8% is out of the question.
> 
> _FTSE down 6% is only -360pts... which is similar to where it was last week.
> _
> UK's overall economic impact on the rest of the world is not massive... but if UK can leave, it's not as hard to imagine Greece or Italy having a referendum down the track. A destablised EU is a big deal and the market will be rocked by that.





Good points, plus there is a good chance this will be a gap open as the vote should be counted by the EU open. So any hope of any kind of circuit breaker (not that i know of any in Europe) kicking in might be too late.


----------



## McLovin (22 June 2016)

skc said:


> The market has pretty much assumed a remain win. An exit outcome would most definitely be unexpected and I don't think a fall of 6-8% is out of the question.
> 
> FTSE down 6% is only -360pts... which is similar to where it was last week.
> 
> UK's overall economic impact on the rest of the world is not massive... but if UK can leave, it's not as hard to imagine Greece or Italy having a referendum down the track. A destablised EU is a big deal and the market will be rocked by that.




A fall of that magnitude is definitely a possibility. It's more what it says about the state of the world than Britain or the EU in particular. Britain leaving the EU, Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee with his bellicose populism that seems to belong in 1930s Europe, China trying to flex its muscle in the western Pacific, Russia on the rise and the ongoing issue with terrorism. The high water mark for global stability was 1999, imo. Anytime markets are reminded of the world we now live in they sell off.

I don't really think the chances of Eurozone countries leaving is realistic. They are much more tightly bound because of the currency than the UK which is really just part of a free trade bloc. Getting people to inflict on themselves the sort of economic hardship that leaving the euro would is a much, much harder task than selling a no more gypsies referendum.


----------



## Wysiwyg (22 June 2016)

McLovin said:


> Britain leaving the EU, Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee with his bellicose populism that seems to belong in 1930s Europe, China trying to flex its muscle in the western Pacific, Russia on the rise and the ongoing issue with terrorism.



And the continued threat of living next door to dictator kim jong un launching missiles. Seems to be bitchin' for a fight.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (22 June 2016)

the dax, cac and ftse went up around 3-4% the other day so with the hysteria of Britexit could easily dip it 6-8%

on the other hand if they remain, then it could provide some stability and with the reduced prospect of US Fed not raising IR's the XAO may move forward to 5800


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2016)

The tension is rising worldwide.  So ****ing unecessary.  

Multiculturalism is a nice idea which simply doesn't work on *any *level.  Open borders policy is a well-intentioned idea which doesn't work too well either.  The degree of upheaval, unrest, division and angst in Europe, US and Aus is higher than I've ever seen.


----------



## CanOz (22 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> The tension is rising worldwide.  So ****ing unecessary.
> 
> Multiculturalism is a nice idea which simply doesn't work on *any *level.  Open borders policy is a well-intentioned idea which doesn't work too well either.  The degree of upheaval, unrest, division and angst in Europe, US and Aus is higher than I've ever seen.




Nah, it works fine until religion is dragged into everything...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2016)

CanOz said:


> Nah, it works fine until religion is dragged into everything...




Religion sure, and the unequal distribution of wealth.  Some people have the means to aquire wealth, and others do not, but mixing such populations is courting disaster.  It's not the skin colour as such.  Gangs of white Eastern European pickpockets are like rats in London.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Religion sure, and the unequal distribution of wealth.  Some people have the means to aquire wealth, and others do not, but mixing such populations is courting disaster.  It's not the skin colour as such.  Gangs of white Eastern European pickpockets are like rats in London.




We're past a tipping point where anyone who is non-white knows they have the advantage of being a 'disenfranchised minority', and that with numbers, they can topple the whole system.  [talking about African, ME, South American and Eastern Euro background mainly].  Rio olympics will show just how easy this is, unfortunately.  If I was an athlete I wouldn't even consider going.  It will be a gangster's paradise.


----------



## McLovin (22 June 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Religion sure, and the unequal distribution of wealth.  Some people have the means to aquire wealth, and others do not, but mixing such populations is courting disaster.  It's not the skin colour as such.  Gangs of white Eastern European pickpockets are like rats in London.






I lived in London for 7 years, I wasn't pickpocketed once, and I don't know anyone who was. How long did you live there for?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2016)

McLovin said:


> I lived in London for 7 years, I wasn't pickpocketed once, and I don't know anyone who was. How long did you live there for?




They have an anti-pickpocketing (Dip Squad) unit full time on the streets.  Most of the offenders are Romanian and Bulgarian.  They target tourists in and around shops/parks/the undergreound.

https://www.corporatetravelsafety.com/safety-tips/secrets-of-former-pickpocket/

I've been targeted once myself by a gang of 3, but it was in France at an ATM.  Luckily they were smaller than me and I could strong arm them a bit and move on.

Getting a bit off topic though - my point was that open border policies invite people from countries where cultural norms are *very *different.  Resentment, lack of opportunity, lack of trust and divisions become *more *entrenched, not less.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 June 2016)

here we go, think we at best get a flat day or down quite a bit if if britexit wins


----------



## rb250660 (24 June 2016)

How was that volatility. Fantastic!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 June 2016)

on rolls the aussie bear market

not sure if the remain campaign can make it back now


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 June 2016)

The people of Britain have probably taken the 7yr APRA regulated super fund return to 2.7% down from 2.9%, cash over 7yrs better

XAO at 2006 levels


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 July 2016)

most regional markets have recovered well from Brexit, ASX still struggling

until the banks get out of the bear market not much that will get the XAO up over 5500


----------



## MrBurns (4 July 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> most regional markets have recovered well from Brexit, ASX still struggling
> 
> until the banks get out of the bear market not much that will get the XAO up over 5500




Forget Brexit, the election result will do more damage to us than that....


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (5 July 2016)

Not much joy for long term shareholders again 

I reckon we looking at minimum 5yrs for XAO to even get close to 6000 again and for people to have confidence to buy shares


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 July 2016)

Could be in for some downwards action again.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 July 2016)

Buying into the close? If money is full tilt in bonds, is it time for equities to rally? I'm confused.


----------



## CanOz (6 July 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Buying into the close? If money is full tilt in bonds, is it time for equities to rally? I'm confused.




Should be, but there's fear

look at gold.


----------



## notting (6 July 2016)

CanOz said:


> Should be, but there's fear
> 
> look at gold.




Not to mention institutions paying to keep their money in the banks.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 July 2016)

its one big bear market, political issues around the globe are having a big impact on our market

US elections coming up soon

Over the past 12mths our market has sunk day after day, who is going to buy into it at the moment?

At the moment this is bigger than the GFC the financial losses across the globe


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 July 2016)

CanOz said:


> Should be, but there's fear
> 
> look at gold.



The money in safe havens would take some convincing to switch asset classes now I suppose. They probably don't take a 'missed the boat' line.


----------



## Triathlete (13 July 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Over the past 12mths our market has sunk day after day, *who is going to buy into it at the moment?*




I would say the* "The Traders".*


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2016)

I think we'll need a run up to break into new highs.  Horiz line at 5490.

Healthy = touch the line tomorrow, small retrace and breakthrough.  

Unhealthy = retreat before it's even touched.


----------



## Wysiwyg (13 July 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think we'll need a run up to break into new highs.  Horiz line at 5490.



Confession season and the chance of a rate cut might break this incessant rangebound action. Would like to hold longer than the next resistance level. And there is U.S.A.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 July 2016)

One of those topping out days when stocks get belted and the Ords rises.

Gold stocks oversold+.  Buy up.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 July 2016)

I think we'll fall gently back to the horizontal.

This is when speccies go wild - at the end of a long bullish stretch.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 July 2016)

Are we there yet (the top)?

Waiting for the big red bar to initiate the down leg.

Brexit turned out to be extremely bullish for Western markets.  Or was it the US job figures?


----------



## notting (29 July 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Are we there yet (the top)?
> 
> Waiting for the big red bar to initiate the down leg.
> 
> Brexit turned out to be extremely bullish for Western markets.  Or was it the US job figures?




I think it was the fact that they delayed it if they are going at all in real terms.
Make money and get bail on all the retailers in the mean time.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 August 2016)

What caused that sudden spike after 2pm?

RBA 1.5%


----------



## Gringotts Bank (2 August 2016)




----------



## Wysiwyg (2 August 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> What caused that sudden spike after 2pm?
> 
> RBA 1.5%



Give us this day our daily short cover.


----------



## Bill M (2 August 2016)

I would have thought the markets would jump with the interest rate drop. When I got home I was surprised to see it sunk 48 points. 2% for money in the bank now, not looking good.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (2 August 2016)

i thought it might of tanked a lot more today, with the banks being hit again, maybe tomorrow

the banks have only cut by 0.10 - 0.14%, think this will be replicated on any other cuts by RBA to send APRA a clear message


----------



## Gringotts Bank (4 August 2016)

Haven't seen the markets this bearish in many months.


----------



## gartley (12 August 2016)

Some interesting patterns developing on the chart of the XAO.  All suggesting that one more leg up to perhaps just over 5700 and then a significant correction to follow. Looking for the peak between 15-29th Aug if the patterns hold. Other world indices, for example DAX suggesting likewise.

http://invst.ly/289wu

http://invst.ly/289wy


http://invst.ly/289x4


----------



## Boggo (12 August 2016)

I expected a bit of hesitation around the Min Wave C back here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=29142&page=5&p=914367&viewfull=1#post914367

It still not out of this area and the next target is Typical Wave C if it continues up.
These areas act as resistance and then usually become support after a breakout and consolidation.

The major target area is the Decision Point.

(Weekly chart - click to expand)


----------



## Triathlete (12 August 2016)

Boggo said:


> I expected a bit of hesitation around the Min Wave C back here...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=29142&page=5&p=914367&viewfull=1#post914367
> 
> It still not out of this area and the next target is Typical Wave C if it continues up.
> ...




Nice looking inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. If the pattern holds we can extend price 100% of the range between the head and the neckline which brings us towards 6120 that would be nice....Time will tell..!!


----------



## Boggo (12 August 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Nice looking inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. If the pattern holds we can extend price 100% of the range between the head and the neckline which brings us towards 6120 that would be nice....Time will tell..!!




Would be nice if it does, time then for a holiday while it corrects again  :bowser:


----------



## gartley (13 August 2016)

Boggo said:


> Would be nice if it does, time then for a holiday while it corrects again  :bowser:




Would be even nicer if it corrected back under 5300 first to reload the truck before extending upward!!


----------



## Wysiwyg (13 August 2016)

gartley said:


> Would be even nicer if it corrected back under 5300 first to reload the truck before extending upward!!



Oh that would be taking advantage of the desperate SMSF and sole traders selling exhaustion.


----------



## Triathlete (13 August 2016)

gartley said:


> Would be even nicer if it corrected back under 5300 first to reload the truck before extending upward!!




Not expecting 5300 at this stage but is a possibility and a load up of the truck would be on the cards for sure ....

Attached is my chart with current view.....should be an interesting next couple of months.


----------



## gartley (13 August 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Not expecting 5300 at this stage but is a possibility and a load up of the truck would be on the cards for sure ....
> 
> 
> View attachment 67723





Thanks for your thoughts triathlete.  Sometimes H & S patterns backtest below the neckline before moving to their expected targets. Other times they fail to deliver completel but hopefully this one won't to the eventual Target.

Given that the SP500 has been up for 7 straight weeks now, I think a correction makes a good chance. Also the cycles I posted have been highly effective in finding turns, but of of course we are only dealing in probabilities. ))


----------



## tinhat (14 August 2016)

Coppock indicator has turned up.


----------



## gartley (14 August 2016)

tinhat said:


> Coppock indicator has turned up.
> View attachment 67738




Using lagging indicators is like chasing shadows against a wall.....


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 August 2016)

The Index is looking confident since the Jan/Feb turn up. Over 6000 early to mid 2017 is my guess. A break upward now with increased volume from a two week range bound period just like the books say. Looks too good to be true.


----------



## qldfrog (25 August 2016)

the US market this night is not on a positive move..


----------



## cynic (25 August 2016)

qldfrog said:


> the US market this night is not on a positive move..




Nervy ahead of Yellen Yelling about interest rates this coming friday perhaps?!


----------



## qldfrog (25 August 2016)

cynic said:


> Nervy ahead of Yellen Yelling about interest rates this coming friday perhaps?!



I assume.sooner or later  the US will have to raise rates


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 August 2016)

A strong run up followed by low volatility sideways action is usually bullish.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (2 September 2016)

down we head again, cant see anything on the horizon to lift it out of the bear market


----------



## gartley (2 September 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> down we head again, cant see anything on the horizon to lift it out of the bear market




Taking this chart at face value probably headed down until at least early Nov


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 September 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> down we head again, cant see anything on the horizon to lift it out of the bear market



I was buying into trend pullbacks but the pullbacks have now turned into end-of-trends.  Had a hunch it was too good to be true.


----------



## Logique (3 September 2016)

Suggest re-assess after next Mondays trading session, looking at the Futs. 

An interest rate rise in the US may be delayed now.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 September 2016)

Another disappointing week for long term investors, XAO gone nowhere for 8 years 

The next 5yrs not looking promising for any capital growth,


----------



## qldfrog (10 September 2016)

a look at the US and it does not sounds promising for the XAO on Monday, at least the AUD is significantly down.


----------



## gartley (10 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> a look at the US and it does not sounds promising for the XAO on Monday, at least the AUD is significantly down.




Its been expected for weeks, besides we are entering the seasonal doldrums


----------



## MrBurns (10 September 2016)

Just when I dump 6 figures into Australian Super yesterday.


----------



## notting (10 September 2016)

MrBurns said:


> Just when I dump 6 figures into Australian Super yesterday.




Strange thing to do after Draghi all but laid down the red carpet for the Fed to raise in September.
'we see no reason for more stimulus.'
Euro gains on US$ making a qtr point hike in real terms, 'as we were gentlemen.'

Now the concerns should be the bond markets and debt levels.
The US stock market is completely insane in real value terms, but always has been
Now and then it gets real.
Why we follow down? I don't know we are never so 'stupid high.' 
But I do know it makes for awesome opportunities.


----------



## MrBurns (10 September 2016)

notting said:


> Strange thing to do after Draghi all but laid down the red carpet for the Fed to raise in September.
> 'we see no reason for more stimulus.'




They're always saying something and nothing ever happens. the money is better off there than in the general market anyway.


----------



## qldfrog (10 September 2016)

MrBurns said:


> They're always saying something and nothing ever happens. the money is better off *there *than in the general market anyway.



what is your meaning for *there* Mr Burn, do you mean your super, the asx?
Just want to understand your point.


----------



## MrBurns (10 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> what is your meaning for *there* Mr Burn, do you mean your super, the asx?
> Just want to understand your point.




Yes qldfrog, I meant the money is better off in Australian Super than with me picking shares, at least they move the money around to best advantage whereas I just go by articles I read and gut feel....that doesnt work at all.
It's in the balanced fund so while it will dip it will eventually come back.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 September 2016)

notting said:


> Now the concerns should be the bond markets and debt levels.




Jim Puplava (US financial commentator - does some free podcasts at www.financialsense.com) has been saying this for quite some time now. The stock market will do whatever but the real trouble, whenever it starts, is going to be in the bond markets and it's a question of when not if. 

Time will tell if he's right or not.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 September 2016)

its a whole new world on the share market, stocks go up and down but there is enormous risk i feel at the moment that you will get no capital growth over the next 5-10years and you will be forced to become a trader (frequent buyer/seller) to lock in the profits

when you look at last year the market was almost at 6000, now its in a bear market with numerous sectors hit by 20-30% falls and cant get over 5500


----------



## tech/a (11 September 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> its a whole new world on the share market, stocks go up and down but there is enormous risk i feel at the moment that you will get no capital growth over the next 5-10years and you will be forced to become a trader (frequent buyer/seller) to lock in the profits
> 
> when you look at last year the market was almost at 6000, now its in a bear market with numerous sectors hit by 20-30% falls and cant get over 5500




Been like this for a few years.
I think a blend of hold and trade is workable


----------



## Logique (11 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> Been like this for a few years. I think a blend of hold and trade is workable



A percentage drop on a Friday, this is not my favourite thing. But on balance, I'd rather be in this market than out. It still conforms to my technical criteria.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 September 2016)

yes I think you right Tech, got a few stocks which i think will sell if they head back up to a reasonable level

someone wrote in this thread a while back with their concerns about how the XAO is going to be able to get moving in a solid uptrend again


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 September 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> when you look at last year the market was almost at 6000, now its in a bear market with numerous sectors hit by 20-30% falls and cant get over 5500




An alternative view would be that we reached a top 9 years ago and have been in a secular bear ever since, upward moves being just a rally within that (albeit a rather long one).

There's plenty of historical precedents for such things internationally and they tend to last more than a decade from the top to the point at which substantial ongoing growth gets going again. I recall seeing some study which said the average length was 17 years although they were looking at major international markets not the ASX specifically. .


----------



## Triathlete (13 September 2016)

gartley said:


> Taking this chart at face value probably headed down until at least early Nov
> 
> View attachment 67975





Well you predicted this one Gartley......


----------



## gartley (13 September 2016)

Thanks Triathlete)).

Two or three times a year opportunities like this appear where everything lines up and we get a good move. I think what happens in the next 4 weeks will tell us a lot about the prospects of World markets thereafter.
Will the FED levitation of US markets continue until after election and thereafter the whole deck of cards collapse or has it already started?


----------



## peter2 (13 September 2016)

The ASX is a wimp, giving back all of it's overnight gains today.


----------



## notting (13 September 2016)

I hope the market does tomorrow what it should have done today.
Because I did this afternoon what I never, in my wildest fantasy, thought I would be able to do at about 8am.
It works sometimes.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 September 2016)

Well this is a fun thread.

I guess compared to squabbling over the right way to bet on market fluctuations, it's too boring to just buy stocks for the really long term (5-30 years) as an investment vehicle from savings. But that is what I do every pay day after putting aside what I need to live for the month (I also keep a cash buffer worth 1 year of living expenses).

So, anyone else buying some boring stocks today? I bought some AFI...not exactly the XAO but close enough 

Those businesses will keep chugglng along generating earnings and dividends while the price goes up and down from the gamblers...


----------



## peter2 (14 September 2016)

Ok, let's please get back to the *XAO*. 

It's shown us another corrective pull-back and the rising channel is very corrective in nature with each pull-back going below the second last high. Are we going to see a rally soon or has this pull-back got further to go? 

I'm on the fence on that question because I don't want to have any real convictions. I prefer to trade what I see. Currently it's down and I'm waiting for it to stop and turn up. When it turns up I'll get lots of pull-back setups.


----------



## Joe Blow (14 September 2016)

Hi folks, I have decided to move the posts relating to Kelly's losing CFD trade to a new thread. 

Those who wish to continue that discussion can find it here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31405


----------



## qldfrog (15 September 2016)

I do not know when this will hit the mainstream media/flavour of the day 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/those-big-income-gains-theyve-stalled-this-year-160228661.html
but you have all the numbers ready to justify the next US fall, and then our XAO bear market.
In short, the US economy is better but hardly


----------



## notting (15 September 2016)

Anyway..........
What are these market darlings - yielding, safe, infrastructure stocks, in very different industries, suddenly telling us about rotation and interest rate forplay!?

*TLS*


*TCL*


*MQA*


*SYD*


*APA*



PS As a bunch you may see safish  short on MQA as it's yet to fall through its 200 day and by the looks of the others it's bound to!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 September 2016)

Just reinforcing the terrible conditions for investors, the top50 are the most unloved stocks around

Yet a small cap making 5million will be up 20-30%


----------



## notting (15 September 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Just reinforcing the terrible conditions for investors, the top50 are the most unloved stocks around
> Yet a small cap making 5million will be up 20-30%




I would have called that risk on! (gold off as well)
Rolling out of fat dogs into growth, inflation and boooom..... (usually after a correction)


----------



## Logique (15 September 2016)

MrBurns said:


> Just when I dump 6 figures into Australian Super yesterday.



Don't jump out the window just yet Burnsie (not that you would anyway):  
http://thecharttechnician.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/xaocycleschematic.png 
Just one person's opinion of course, but thanks go to them for making available online.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 September 2016)

notting said:


> I would have called that risk on! (gold off as well)
> Rolling out of fat dogs into growth, inflation and boooom..... (usually after a correction)




i think 2017 might see a better period and the XAO trend more in the range of 5600-6000, 

still too many factors like the US election, europe elections, US interest rises, bank capital raising's/APRA, commodity crunch to go away


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 September 2016)

will be an interesting day to see if buyers come into the market

XAO is really under the control of the FED i feel, the outcome on whether they raise rates or keep them unchanged are negative for XAO,


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (5 October 2016)

looks like status quo with the fear of fed raising rates impacting market again

want to take it from 0.25->0.50, maybe same next year, going to be a long time for our market to get thru this


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 October 2016)

down today


----------



## Gringotts Bank (17 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> down today




This  ^^


----------



## MrBurns (17 October 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> This  ^^





I put a fair bundle into Australian Super a couple of weeks ago, going backwards.


----------



## Wysiwyg (17 October 2016)

Couple of weeks? Gawd, you gotta look further ahead than  a coupla weeks for a retirement fund investment. If you mean timing then I understand. My timing is terrible too.


----------



## MrBurns (18 October 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Couple of weeks? Gawd, you gotta look further ahead than  a coupla weeks for a retirement fund investment. If you mean timing then I understand. My timing is terrible too.




Yes the timing, I never fail. ( or should it be always fail)


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (26 October 2016)

can only struggle for next few weeks with 3 banks reporting, US election, hysteria over Oil & Commodities, Britexit still to be resolved, Duetsche Bank

only 2 months to go for 2016 so be interesting to see who wins the comp


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (27 October 2016)

Down to 5 week low


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (28 October 2016)

No wonder fund managers, future fund are sitting on cash


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> No wonder fund managers, future fund are sitting on cash




Yeah, these are crazy times.


----------



## gartley (29 October 2016)

Corrective period that started 12th Aug (see: #2339)  most likely close to completing. Developing triangle in XAO in my opinion will break upward to around 5800-5850 and most likely will be led by a a commodity price rise.  

Could be the last push up before the larger bear that started with GFC resumes


----------



## Quant (29 October 2016)

gartley said:


> Corrective period that started 12th Aug (see: #2339)  most likely close to completing. Developing triangle in XAO in my opinion will break upward to around 5800-5850 and most likely will be led by a a commodity price rise.
> 
> Could be the last push up before the larger bear that started with GFC resumes




Only way we see 5850 is if banks participate and thats looking unlikely medium term given earnings growth metric and the chances of another capital raise to shore up capital adequacy , definitely aint happening this year


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 October 2016)

Quant said:


> Only way we see 5850 is if banks participate and thats looking unlikely medium term given earnings growth metric and the chances of another capital raise to shore up capital adequacy , definitely aint happening this year




yes I agree Quant, 

a couple of discussions in the press recently regarding capital adequacy will make it an interesting next 6 months, some banks and analysts feel that capital raising/adequacy may stop

and with the drive for growth and inflation around the world regulators (BASEL) are going to have think about it


----------



## gartley (31 October 2016)

Quant said:


> Only way we see 5850 is if banks participate and thats looking unlikely medium term given earnings growth metric and the chances of another capital raise to shore up capital adequacy , definitely aint happening this year




Taking the following weekly chart at face value (ASX200), the uptrend that started in February remains intact. As can be seen the buy and sell analysis has been very good for the last 300 weeks.  Until  another spike is generated to suggest the trend is at risk,  then I am staying with it. If we do get another leg up to approx 5758 (or approx 5800+ for All Ords), it will most certainly be the last before the larger downtrend takes hold again and continues.

Having said that the longer term (monthly) has an active sell spike


----------



## kid hustlr (31 October 2016)

Gartley,

Can you provide some detail on why you think we'll get another major downtrend?


----------



## gartley (31 October 2016)

kid hustlr said:


> Gartley,
> 
> Can you provide some detail on why you think we'll get another major downtrend?





CONFLUENCE of pattern, price and time


1/  I posted this last in April of last year, a textbook Gartley pattern from 2007 peak until peak in April last year.

2/  89 Fibonacci Months from 2009 peak till April peak last year

3/ GFC Elliott Impulse Wave down and nice ABC up

4/ Monthly Sell spike still active as shown on earlier post chart.

On top of this the SP500 has almost completed a 5 of 5 wave structure from 2009 low.

http://invst.ly/2nxnj


http://invst.ly/2nxto


Any of these on their own  is really a coin toss.  Combining them adds a little more weight and suggests that last years high was significant and it's still intact. The old saying, a top is a process not an event holds true in this case.
For now this market is doing a good job of driving most of us nuts which is why I am sticking to the analysis I have shown until the market dictates otherwise.


----------



## CanOz (31 October 2016)

The only things that will stop the decline is the RBA....more rate cuts would force funds into dividends again.....they might cut rates if the banks cut the discounts to loans...basel lll is here.


----------



## Lone Wolf (31 October 2016)

CanOz said:


> The only things that will stop the decline is the RBA....more rate cuts would force funds into dividends again.....they might cut rates if the banks cut the discounts to loans...basel lll is here.





I'm no economist so it's all over my head, but I can't help but think these low interest rates are setting us up with some significant problems in the future.

Self-funded retirees who were relying on the safe and steady income of bank interest are being driven towards riskier investments, if the bottom falls out of the market they may not have time to wait for it to come back. At the same time, younger people are using the record low interest rates to borrow to the point where the inevitable future rate rise will put extreme strain on their ability to repay the loan.

People with money are at a higher risk of losing it and people without money increase personal debt to dangerous levels. In both cases it would seem spending would reduce as people have less cash to spare. But isn't lowering interest rates supposed to increase spending? What happens to the economy when everyone is already broke or in debt and lowering interest rates loses its effectiveness?

I don't mean to sound like I think the sky is falling, but I do wonder where we're heading.


----------



## Logique (1 November 2016)

SMH article



> Brighter November tipped for ASX after October's yield sell-off - 31 October 2016
> 
> Vanessa Desloires, SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...r-octobers-yield-selloff-20161030-gsecq3.html
> 
> ...


----------



## kid hustlr (1 November 2016)

gartley said:


> CONFLUENCE of pattern, price and time
> 
> 
> 1/  I posted this last in April of last year, a textbook Gartley pattern from 2007 peak until peak in April last year.
> ...




Do you really see the asx at sub 3000 tho? Not saying it won't happen just seems a long way off at this stage.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 November 2016)

down it goes again, usual suspects of US election, US interest rates, bond yields etc etc

cash is beating the ASX over past 10yrs,


----------



## CanOz (1 November 2016)

No Live data still....

Look out below if that 5243 level goes offer


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (2 November 2016)

on rolls the bear market


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (2 November 2016)

a week or so of turmoil with US election approaching, then the XAO will get slaughtered with 4 weeks of turmoil leading up to the US Fed interest rate decision taking rates from 0.25 to 0.50


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2016)

5243 was taken out during the US session, looking to short a retest of this level today....


----------



## skc (2 November 2016)

CanOz said:


> 5243 was taken out during the US session, looking to short a retest of this level today....




Today is "whack a mid-cap darling" day on the ASX. Here's for the watchlist tomorrow.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 November 2016)

i imagine investors around Australia be starting the day with another session of losing money on the XAO


----------



## Klogg (3 November 2016)

skc said:


> Today is "whack a mid-cap darling" day on the ASX. Here's for the watchlist tomorrow.
> 
> View attachment 68675




Check out DTL for some nice whacking.

On another note, RCG is a very interesting case. Their ability to generate shareholder returns are huge, albeit untested with such large acquisitions. The recent SP drop has me looking at it again (I sold my holding just after the Accent Group acquisition...)

Back to the XAO - I suppose this should have been expected, given the out-performance of the small/mid cap space relative to the ASX 200.


----------



## MrBurns (3 November 2016)

I put 6 figures into Australian Super balanced fund on Sept 9th how's that for timing.


----------



## Klogg (3 November 2016)

MrBurns said:


> I put 6 figures into Australian Super balanced fund on Sept 9th how's that for timing.




Yeah, whenever I've tried timing anything in the past, I've failed miserably. It seems just leaving it in the same spot (an index fund in your case) seems to be ideal for me.
The need to do something usually tries to take over, but I know it just hurts my results...

(FWIW - I don't hold any index funds anymore, but the desire to time things still pops its head up from time to time).


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> i imagine investors around Australia be starting the day with another session of losing money on the XAO



There are some looking for a pivot today but I don't trust the same near term support level of  September.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 November 2016)

Jan 2006 the market at 5200

Nowhere for 10yrs, and dividends probably making up capital losses


----------



## CanOz (4 November 2016)

Happy my super is in cash, all set to 'roll' into my SMSF.


----------



## CanOz (4 November 2016)

SPI looking to extend the range down now....


----------



## Lone Wolf (4 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Jan 2006 the market at 5200
> 
> Nowhere for 10yrs, and dividends probably making up capital losses




10 years of S&P/ASX 200 Franking Credit Adjusted Annual Total Return Index (Superannuation). I'd have thought that beats cash. You said in an earlier email that cash is outperforming over 10 years, do you have a figure?





Someone who started 5 years ago would be quite happy. Different timing, different perspective.


----------



## Quant (4 November 2016)

Lone Wolf said:


> 10 years of S&P/ASX 200 Franking Credit Adjusted Annual Total Return Index (Superannuation). I'd have thought that beats cash. You said in an earlier email that cash is outperforming over 10 years, do you have a figure?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




running 10 year return on ASX200 accumulation index is 49% , hardly nothing to sneeze at considering GFC in middle


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 November 2016)

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/

thats the cash rate, so probably add about 1.5-2% margin onto that, but approx. 5years ago you could of got a 5yr TD for 7.5% PA


----------



## Quant (5 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/
> 
> thats the cash rate, so probably add about 1.5-2% margin onto that, but approx. 5years ago you could of got a 5yr TD for 7.5% PA





Yeah and all that TD is taxable , not sure what your point is tbh . 5 years ago the accumulation index 1 year rolling return was 12.1% predominantly tax paid if we going apples for apples ,   4 years ago the accumulation index 1 year rolling return was 26.8% ... circles here


----------



## MrBurns (8 November 2016)

DOW up 371

ASX up   24


----------



## Porper (8 November 2016)

MrBurns said:


> DOW up 371
> 
> ASX up   24




Been the same for years now. XJO in a bear market bounce, DOW in a bull market. Not going to change any time soon i.m.o.


----------



## MrBurns (8 November 2016)

Porper said:


> Been the same for years now. XJO in a bear market bounce, DOW in a bull market. Not going to change any time soon i.m.o.





We seem to go down with them but not the other way round.


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 November 2016)

MrBurns said:


> We seem to go down with them but not the other way round.



Makes one appreciate the few bull markets in an average financial lifetime.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (8 November 2016)

MrBurns said:


> DOW up 371
> 
> ASX up   24




Actually if you look at the US market overnight the DIA (Dow 30 ETF) was up 2.09% on close while the EWA (MSCI Australia ETF) was up 2.91%.

People always forget to account for the currency differential.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (8 November 2016)

Quant said:


> running 10 year return on ASX200 accumulation index is 49% , hardly nothing to sneeze at considering GFC in middle
> 
> View attachment 68715




That's only 4% per annum CAGR though, isn't it? Not much better than cash, especially if comparing volatility?


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 November 2016)

Big reversal with the Frump camp gaining the lead.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 November 2016)

yep just ridiculous, 

is this investing?


----------



## MrBurns (9 November 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Big reversal with the Frump camp gaining the lead.




I think people expect Clinton to win in the end.


----------



## Tightwad (9 November 2016)

got to remember middle america is mostly red, a lot of blue states on the west coast that haven't started yet.  still would like to see florida blue


----------



## Klogg (9 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> yep just ridiculous,
> 
> is this investing?




Those that are truly investing see this as noise, or even opportunity.


Buffett's analogy is the best on this:



> It should be an enormous advantage for investors in stocks to have those wildly fluctuating valuations placed on their holdings — and for some investors, it is. After all, if a moody fellow with a farm bordering my property yelled out a price every day to me at which he would either buy my farm or sell me his — and those prices varied widely over short periods of time depending on his mental state — how in the world could I be other than benefited by his erratic behavior? If his daily shout-out was ridiculously low, and I had some spare cash, I would buy his farm. If the number he yelled was absurdly high, I could either sell to him or just go on farming.







> I think people expect Clinton to win in the end.




I wouldn't be so sure. Sportsbet odds have come in for Trump for $9 to win to $2


----------



## smallwolf (9 November 2016)

MrBurns said:


> I think people expect Clinton to win in the end.




watching 9 live ... someone respectable (?) over there has Trump at 64% likely..... watch out below!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 November 2016)

Not sure got 50yrs to sit on farm, XAO back at 2005 levels


----------



## notting (9 November 2016)

This is about the first time I have ever been happy that we are open during the US night.
Totally playing the panic as it unfolds.  We normally lose so much opportunity on the gaps.  
Awesome


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 November 2016)

Will be down another 2-2.5% tommorow with either trump or Clinton

Everything is negative for stocks in Aus at moment, then the Fed in Dec, there every chance your capital will be your capital in 5-10yrs time


----------



## MrBurns (9 November 2016)

This should be accurate - 

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 November 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Read the thread!  All my calls have been spot on lately.



Wooly flock is on the way.


----------



## qldfrog (9 November 2016)

notting said:


> This is about the first time I have ever been happy that we are open during the US night.
> Totally playing the panic as it unfolds.  We normally lose so much opportunity on the gaps.
> Awesome



yeap at early morning gold stock were falling (I had weight in massively  lately) I thought damned was i wrong got to us sites, yeap it is trump or messy by the time I could log again to play a day buy sell on gold stock it was already up and minimised my day trading profit.
Maybe the clique at the top is faillable after all, will give some ideas to the peons here.


----------



## notting (9 November 2016)

shorted Gold stocks on the close whilst crapping my pants.
and everyone else was doing this -
Auuugh
[video]https://twitter.com/MsFlynn_/status/796222926496337920/photo/1[/video]


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 November 2016)

Share= risk asset? Amazing


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 November 2016)

notting said:


> shorted Gold stocks on the close whilst crapping my pants.
> and *everyone* else was doing this -



Nah, pretty chill now bro.


----------



## skc (9 November 2016)

notting said:


> This is about the first time I have ever been happy that we are open during the US night.
> Totally playing the panic as it unfolds.  We normally lose so much opportunity on the gaps.
> Awesome




Absolute gift today. Trump was in the lead in Florida so early and the market is totally asleep on it. Then the SPI still mucking around when the ES was plunging. Then Gold stocks took their sweet time to rise. 

I just can't believe how:
- The market is so complacent so soon after getting caught pants down by Brexit.
- That there are 2 of these opportunities in 6 month.

Beat my Bexit P&L by 50%. Could have made a lot more but had connection problems by the afternoon...

More elections please!!


----------



## qldfrog (9 November 2016)

skc said:


> Could have made a lot more but had connection problems by the afternoon...



same could not enter my buy gold order lunchtime...


----------



## kid hustlr (9 November 2016)

skc said:


> Absolute gift today. Trump was in the lead in Florida so early and the market is totally asleep on it. Then the SPI still mucking around when the ES was plunging. Then Gold stocks took their sweet time to rise.
> 
> I just can't believe how:
> - The market is so complacent so soon after getting caught pants down by Brexit.
> ...




I thought the same thing - I wasn't trading but blind Freddy could see Florida was on the line and the market was so lax about it. ASX -200 seemed a pretty good spot to have a go on the long side also.

Could make the argument holding gold stocks from the start was an ok gamble - plenty of upside exposure and if Clinton won I'm not sure they would have got sold off anyway.


----------



## MrChow (9 November 2016)

On Brexit FTSE lost -8% in 2 days, then gained 24% in the next 5 months.

On 9/11 Dow Jones lost -18% in 2 days, then gained 26% in the next 6 months.


----------



## Porper (9 November 2016)

MrChow said:


> On Brexit FTSE lost -8% in 2 days, then gained 24% in the next 5 months.
> 
> On 9/11 Dow Jones lost -18% in 2 days, then gained 26% in the next 6 months.




I wouldn't hold your breath on a repeat performance. Different beast altogether.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 November 2016)

What did XAO gain after britexit?

We get smashed from everything and recover zero


----------



## skc (9 November 2016)

Porper said:


> I wouldn't hold your breath on a repeat performance. Different beast altogether.




SPI up 80pts since close.

DJIA some 500pts off the lows.

Wouldn't surprise me if Europe goes green before US opens.

Crazy market.


----------



## smallwolf (9 November 2016)

skc said:


> SPI up 80pts since close.
> 
> DJIA some 500pts off the lows.
> 
> ...




react first and then think.....:screwy:


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 November 2016)

Be feeling crappy if you shorted the 200 and were looking for a further plunge. :frown:


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 November 2016)

Let's see if XAO can hang on to what the spi is showing 

Probably hang on to 1.5%


----------



## Porper (10 November 2016)

skc said:


> SPI up 80pts since close.
> 
> DJIA some 500pts off the lows.
> 
> ...




Odd reaction to the Trump win overnight but nothing should surprise really.

Just goes to show how important it is to stick to your plan...technical analysis in my case. Let the patterns show the way forward. Trying to second guess reactions like this is almost impossible.


----------



## peter2 (10 November 2016)

What a rush. We're back baby! Who knew that yesterday was a great day to buy.


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 November 2016)

Most stocks up from yesterday but will many close lower than their open price. Just saying it could be misleading comparative to yesterday.


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 November 2016)

Generally no demand this morning.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 November 2016)

could be good day to take money out of ANZ and WBC with them going ex-div on monday, who knows though, with Trump elected the bank regulation (Basel) could be thrown out the window and these stocks may keep rising after ex-div and help push XAO to 5600>


----------



## notting (11 November 2016)

It's all about the perception that Trump is going to let it rip.
This is a great presidential jump.
Bond markets are being sold off!!! (Biggest bubble in the history of everything)

There are going to be a lot and I mean a lot of people, some very powerful, trying to take this guy down.
It's hard to imagine how at least one will not succeed given his history and character.
Even if that does not happen, the gaffs that are going to come out of his mouth will be cataclysmic and awesome for trading!
When everything is feeling this good, it's time to get fearful.
Remember the kind of horse this guy rode in on!




We are now firmly living in interesting times! (Chinese curse)


----------



## Knobby22 (11 November 2016)

We shall see.

I'm up today but its all financials and mining. Every other company is down. I don't really understand why Mortgage Choice , Credit Corp and Bendigo Bank deserve to be re-rated because Trump won.
I can understand my Fortescue shares going up due to the iron price but how long will that last?

He becomes President on the 20 January. the next few days from this could be quite precarious. I think it will be worth holding till Christmas if the prices keep rising but I plan to be mostly out well before the inauguration date.


----------



## MrBurns (11 November 2016)

Knobby22 said:


> We shall see.
> 
> I'm up today but its all financials and mining. Every other company is down. I don't really understand why Mortgage Choice , Credit Corp and Bendigo Bank deserve to be re-rated because Trump won.
> I can understand my Fortescue shares going up due to the iron price but how long will that last?
> ...




I think I'll be out long before that....he's trouble not that I liked Hillary but this guy President ?


----------



## notting (11 November 2016)

I should also add that Donald's Tweet today confirmed that his ability to morph into something presidential has certainly not happened yet, that alone should rattle markets.  It wasn't just a sell to get there.  It's him through and through and he is not in control of it!!!




> In his first tweet after his minders gave him back the thus far deemed 'lethal weapon too powerful for him to be trusted with (a phone) was -
> *"Just had a very open and successful presidential election. Now professional protesters, incited by the media, are protesting. Very unfair!"*
> 
> Um "The system is rigged." So how could it be fair?
> ...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 November 2016)

we were down 2% on the vote counting day, then up 3.4% next day

not much changed last week really, the bear market continues on


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 November 2016)

looks like heading back down for a while, 

dividends will make up for capital losses for a lot of investors


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 November 2016)

How the hell are people making money on the ASX. I don't believe CFD Short Selling is keeping the market down. No bulls in Oz while the U.S. puts in new all time highs. :frown:


----------



## satanoperca (15 November 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> How the hell are people making money on the ASX. I don't believe CFD Short Selling is keeping the market down. No bulls in Oz while the U.S. puts in new all time highs. :frown:




Just guessing but surely these two figures might be some indication to it.

Private Debt to GPD Australia 125%

Private Debt to GPD USA 78%

But hey, don't mention it to loudly, might spook the sheepie.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/households-debt-to-gdp#

I personally like these figures Private Debt 2.6T = 0.85T Business Debt + 1.75T Household Debt (1.6T Housing Debt)

Go MT, innovation all the way to drive our economy as long as it is in bricks and mortar.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> we were down 2% on the vote counting day, then up 3.4% next day
> 
> not much changed last week really, the bear market continues on




Market fell heavily when it became apparent that Trump would likely win the election.

Market shot up the next day when it was confirmed that Trump had won the election.

Pretty much blows the "efficient market theory" straight out of the water and dispels any notion that markets price things in, are rational and so on. How does one explain such a move other than as an irrational knee jerk reaction?


----------



## qldfrog (15 November 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> Market fell heavily when it became apparent that Trump would likely win the election.
> 
> Market shot up the next day when it was confirmed that Trump had won the election.
> 
> Pretty much blows the "efficient market theory" straight out of the water and dispels any notion that markets price things in, are rational and so on. How does one explain such a move other than as an irrational knee jerk reaction?



funny how the market after failing lamely to plan for brexit and Trump , now assume in Oz that it knows that Trump will not keep his promises;
just if he was to do half of these where do you think our mining would go, and our debt credit rating and RE???
While I would be confortable as an American with Trump in power, in Oz, we are really kidding ourselves in thinking it will be business as usual, my opinion only,,,


----------



## peter2 (17 November 2016)

Does anyone else feel like we're flogging a dead bourse?   :horse:


----------



## rb250660 (18 November 2016)

peter2 said:


> Does anyone else feel like we're flogging a dead bourse?   :horse:




Definitely, the last 10 weeks has been treading water until this week. I made a few coins this week by being a bit discretionary with my trading. Selling on the open has been a nightmare, I'm finding there are no buyers at the time but plenty at the close. I'm using profit targets and dumping at the close lately and having a lot more success.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (21 November 2016)

bit over 4 weeks of trading left for the year, cant see too much changing with US Fed rates hanging over OUR head

feel there is more risk of DOW coming off 500-1000 points and taking XAO down to 5000 or so


----------



## Logique (23 November 2016)

Close 5549. Good day, up +1.26% and back to early October levels, on good technicals


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 November 2016)

Yes good couple of days, hopefully this XAO can turn the corner and push up over 6000

provide some reward for the risk you take when investing in shares,


----------



## notting (30 November 2016)

Mining and Brexit stocks really taken a pounding over the last few days.
We are seeing some kind of turn or perhaps just fear of Italy.


----------



## skc (30 November 2016)

notting said:


> Mining and Brexit stocks really taken a pounding over the last few days.
> We are seeing some kind of turn or perhaps just fear of Italy.




Surely the market can't go all gun-ho into Italy like it did the first 2 times with Brexit and Trump... paring back some longs is definitely prudent.

Resource is a whole other story... the run's been so vertical even a 3 day breather can see spot prices back down 10-15%.


----------



## notting (2 December 2016)

skc said:


> Surely the market can't go all gun-ho into Italy like it did the first 2 times with Brexit and Trump... paring back some longs is definitely prudent.
> 
> Resource is a whole other story... the run's been so vertical even a 3 day breather can see spot prices back down 10-15%.




Good points as usual.

Remembering Greece today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Iron ore +8.7% to $US78.36 a tonne FMG BHP RIO come out of the blocks like Hesin Bolt then flip negative with great intensity.

Bellamy's just dropped off its perch.

And then, of course, there's this -



> Trump Opens his mouth
> Since being elected president on November 8, *Trump had refrained from repeating his campaign rhetoric to ignite a "trade war"* by slapping tariffs of up to 45 percent on imports from China and Mexico.
> James Pethokoukis, a free-market scholar at conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute, said Trump's heavy-handed speech instilling "fear" in American executives was "absolutely chilling".
> *"I think this was the worst economic speech by an American politician since 1984* when Walter Mondale promised to reverse Reaganomics."




Oh Captain my captain.

A little prudence not unwarranted!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (8 December 2016)

maybe pick up 20 - 30pts for the day, about 3 weeks left for the year, hope santa can ramp it up a bit so can buy some prawns for xmas day and get the economy moving


----------



## Logique (8 December 2016)

Outstanding overnight in US & Europe.  We should push towards 5600 today


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 December 2016)

looks certain the Fed will raise rates this week, maybe the financial markets have finally accepted this and the shock will be minor across the globe

the XAO still very much a poor performer (bear market) and maybe the FED will shock our market and drop 150-250 over next week


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 December 2016)

Over 9 years since the XAO topped out. 6873 still a long way away points wise.



notting said:


> Iron ore +8.7% to $US78.36 a tonne FMG BHP RIO come out of the blocks like *Hesin Bolt*



Usain Bolt's younger brother?


----------



## Logique (21 December 2016)

The Santa Claus rally is well underway, most indices around the world, incl XAO


----------



## MrBurns (21 December 2016)

Logique said:


> The Santa Claus rally is well underway, most indices around the world, incl XAO




I just sold out of almost everything while the going is good.


----------



## Logique (21 December 2016)

Going to make it tricky picking stocks for the 2017 comp!


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 December 2016)

MrBurns said:


> I just sold out of almost everything while the going is good.



That's a hard thing to do when the going has been tough and some profits have started emerging.


----------



## MrBurns (21 December 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> That's a hard thing to do when the going has been tough and some profits have started emerging.




Interest rates are on the way up....


----------



## notting (23 December 2016)

Time to sell the fact after buying the Trump news.
A trade war is not out of the question.


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 December 2016)

notting said:


> Time to sell the fact after buying the Trump news.
> A trade war is not out of the question.



Tony A. said Australia is open for business.


----------



## pixel (23 December 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Tony A. said Australia is open for business.



Tenders invited for the farm to be flogged.
... and the Ports
and airports
and power infrastructure
and coal mines ...

But don't anyone dare and put up an ugly wind farm


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 December 2016)

reasonable run for the XAO since Trump elected

maybe around 5750 at end of tomorrow, the banks have joined in to get to where it is


----------



## Bill M (3 January 2017)

MrBurns said:


> Interest rates are on the way up....



Are you sure about that? According to this article there is a strong possibility of us going below the USA cash rate. If that happens not only will you get less interest but the AUD will crash too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-30/rba-fed-cash-rate-aud/8154142?section=business


----------



## gartley (5 January 2017)

You can forget about AUD crashing, in fact it's a great long term long trade IMO. If the recent moves in the bond market are any indication you can also forget about the lowest rates in 5000 years going lower. God help those that are highly leveraged in debt.....


----------



## MrBurns (5 January 2017)

Bill M said:


> Are you sure about that? According to this article there is a strong possibility of us going below the USA cash rate. If that happens not only will you get less interest but the AUD will crash too.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-30/rba-fed-cash-rate-aud/8154142?section=business




I'm not sure about anything just thinking rates have been too low for too long and something has to give.


----------



## kid hustlr (5 January 2017)

gartley said:


> You can forget about AUD crashing, in fact it's a great long term long trade IMO. If the recent moves in the bond market are any indication you can also forget about the lowest rates in 5000 years going lower. God help those that are highly leveraged in debt.....




Why you say that Gartley? I agree on rates but I think the AUD is headed lower


----------



## Bill M (6 January 2017)

MrBurns said:


> I'm not sure about anything just thinking rates have been too low for too long and something has to give.



It's always a hard juggling act. In the last few days ING Living Super dropped their 1 year term deposit rates from 3.1% to 2.9%.

I too have offloaded just a little of my stocks but it's really hard doing that going from a 7% grossed up dividend down to 2.9% for cash. As for the AUD, I've seen it at .48c to the USD and $1.10 to USD, it has certainly had some wild rides.

---
NAB analysts say 2017 may be the year the Reserve Bank cash rate falls below US interest rates, and the last time this occurred the Australian dollar slumped as low as 48 US cents.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-30/rba-fed-cash-rate-aud/8154142?section=business
---


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 January 2017)

could be on the way to 6,873, our index is lagging a lot of others


----------



## gartley (12 January 2017)

kid hustlr said:


> Why you say that Gartley? I agree on rates but I think the AUD is headed lower





There are quite a few technical reasons but here I will only show one.  I saw this developing in mid 2015. From the October low of 2009 till the peak of July 2011 almost 34 months passed. The market fell for close to 55 months from the July 2011 peak till January 2016.  So what??? you may ask...

Well 34 and 55 are fibonacci numbers, that in itself is no big deal. But the fact that they occur adjacent to each other in the sequence suggests that this could either be an area of substantial support in time or a major turn. 34/55=0.618 phi.  This has turned out to be the case exactly, so don't expect the AUD to fall through the last low any time in the near future, but for the rally to persist in the months ahead.  Fibonacci time counts can be very important. Look what happened in AUS200 back in April 2015 and the subsequent downturn ( 89 months peak to peak).  It was flagged back then suggesting down turn was imminent but not many listened)))))

https://invst.ly/31you

https://invst.ly/31yoo


----------



## kid hustlr (12 January 2017)

Hard to argue with the recent moves


----------



## Quant (16 January 2017)

Banks toppy , just got the lighten memo from my bank man , i say tops in for a month , sell the pops is my MO from here  , nice bearish reversal   at channel extreme , just where i like em


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 January 2017)

not much hope with XAO breaking out and holding onto anything,

just about every fund manager believes fully valued!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 February 2017)

Going nowhere


----------



## UMike (23 February 2017)

Quant said:


> View attachment 69587
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 I'm with you ... Sold a lot the last few days.... Thinking of selling the rest.
While I am enjoying the recent run I don't quite understand it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 February 2017)




----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2017)

Looking at recent charts it seems a wedge has formed. Lower highs and higher lows with now not much room to move without breaking out of it. I'm no T/A guru but that's how I see it.

Volume seems to have peaked at the end of February and has been declining thus far in March.

Looking at other markets it could be broadly said that things have been incredibly stable and predictable of late. Only exception would be oil which went sideways for a long time before suddenly falling last week. Most markets seem to have been pretty unexciting with not a lot happening. For that matter, even the local weather has been predictable with no real extremes.

Surely something's got to give before too much longer? Either we're going up or we're going down, right? Anyone have thoughts as to which way?

My own thought is that down is more likely than up and that the drop in commodities producers and some commodities themselves is plausibly a warning. I could be wrong of course....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 March 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Surely something's got to give before too much longer? Either we're going up or we're going down, right? Anyone have thoughts as to which way?




I'm thinking the same.  Expecting a bit of red-green-red for a few more days.
5742 soon, imo.


----------



## skc (14 March 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Surely something's got to give before too much longer? Either we're going up or we're going down, right? Anyone have thoughts as to which way?
> 
> My own thought is that down is more likely than up and that the drop in commodities producers and some commodities themselves is plausibly a warning. I could be wrong of course....




Yes by definition it will break soon.. the range is just too narrow. The indications to me is to breakup. US markets at all time highs and the current coiling pattern is the result of a strong run since Nov/Trump. Thursday night might be a good trigger date given the expected US rate increase. The market should take that in stride. 

Frankly I am not a market bull at these levels, but the market trend is up which means either those buying are right, or there are more people who are wrong than I expect.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 March 2017)

feel its going to stay in this range, 

the big shocks have pretty much gone, but not a lot to drive it higher now 

the XAO cant get over pre-GFC levels, who knows why


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 March 2017)

Tomorrow I think XAO will pop up to 5870, then that might be it.  Can't see it going further in the short term.


----------



## MrChow (16 March 2017)

Market looks good to me for another 12 months at least.

The trajectory of U.S jobless claims is still positive and should continue for the next 12 months with government policy on tax, jobs and infrastructure.  A severe downturn usually only happens 6+ months after U.S jobless claims hit a bottom, so all that would mean 18-30 months of clear air yet.

My speculative guesses would be a peak of around 24000 Dow and 6500 XAO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2017)

MrChow said:


> The trajectory of U.S jobless claims is still positive and should continue for the next 12 months with government policy on tax, jobs and infrastructure.  A severe downturn usually only happens 6+ months after U.S jobless claims hit a bottom



US jobless claims - now there's a measure I hadn't thought of looking at.

This 50 year chart does suggest though that whilst it's still clearly going in the right direction we're near a point where a reversal could be expected before too much longer.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims


----------



## UMike (21 March 2017)

UMike said:


> I'm with you ... Sold a lot the last few days.... Thinking of selling the rest.
> While I am enjoying the recent run I don't quite understand it.



Well almost a month gone and I'm Out of One of the banks completely Just a median parcel left of another.

Waiting for a down turn I guess.


----------



## Porper (21 March 2017)

UMike said:


> Well almost a month gone and I'm Out of One of the banks completely Just a median parcel left of another.
> 
> Waiting for a down turn I guess.




Bearish divergence on all the banks except CBA...on daily and weekly timeframes. Bit of caution required I reckon.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 March 2017)

Prediction: 5600


----------



## Gringotts Bank (28 March 2017)

5880 looks a cert for the Ords tomorrow or day after.   If so, then that chart I posted above would be obsolete pretty quickly, and the possibility of a ascending triangle breakout or triple top.


----------



## CanOz (28 March 2017)

The vix put in what appears to be the biggest single session reversal in its history last night....


----------



## Quant (28 March 2017)

CanOz said:


> The vix put in what appears to be the biggest single session reversal in its history last night....



Cant say i'm a huge fan of VIX for anything  . A derivative of a derivative of a derivative , too far from reality for me tbh


----------



## Quant (28 March 2017)

Seeing a lot of parallels with 2015 atm , i really cant see any bargains in top 20 stocks much same as early 2015 and certainly not looking for a bullish swing trade 5700 and above , if we had pulled back to 5600 in recent times i would have taken a bullish swing but i just cant see a lot of meat to upside , Daytrading my MO for now  ... Multiples over 17 arent where value is found


----------



## notting (28 March 2017)

How is all that infrastructure spending going to happen with unprecedented debt levels?
Now not even a bonus from any savings from Obamacare it's only going to get more expensive.
Republicans could not achieve that much they are far more reluctant to put money to work in infrastructure.  That's more like what the Democrats like to do.
But tax cuts, ooh yeah, they'll get into that.
Even though the debt ceiling needs to be raised, AGAIN!!
Then what? Bankruptcy!?


----------



## CanOz (29 March 2017)

Quant said:


> Cant say i'm a huge fan of VIX for anything  . A derivative of a derivative of a derivative , too far from reality for me tbh




We'll it indicated a volatility crush which was followed by massive short covering rally....


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 March 2017)

CanOz said:


> The vix put in what appears to be the biggest single session reversal in its history last night....




What defines "single session reversal"?
Surely there have been bigger moves...like this one less than six months ago...


----------



## Quant (29 March 2017)

CanOz said:


> We'll it indicated a volatility crush which was followed by massive short covering rally....



what leads what


----------



## CanOz (29 March 2017)

InsvestoBoy said:


> What defines "single session reversal"?
> Surely there have been bigger moves...like this one less than six months ago...
> 
> View attachment 70541




Volatility Index gaps up 14% and finishes down 3.6% today, one of the largest intraday reversals in history. $VIX


----------



## Quant (29 March 2017)

CanOz said:


> We'll it indicated a volatility crush which was followed by massive short covering rally....



After the biggest gap down open in a long time a squeeze wasnt exactly a low probability event  and with all due respect i still fail to see an edge in VIX at all . Are you suggesting VIX was a leading indicator here and if so how , I am interested .


----------



## CanOz (29 March 2017)

Ummm, no I'm not suggesting anything other than it was certainly a case for bears to lighten up.


----------



## Quant (29 March 2017)

Headwinds mid 5900's


----------



## peter2 (29 March 2017)

Let's close the door on the negative committee and look at some classic technical analysis using the ascending triangle pattern projected target. 

This bit of TA is courtesy of the positive committee.


----------



## Porper (29 March 2017)

This my take on the weekly chart.

XJO heading higher within a bear market bounce...unlike U.S indices which are still enjoying bull market conditions.

Up toward 6000 before a significant leg down. Best case is to head up to the 1.382 projection of wave-A just shy of 6500 before heading down.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 March 2017)

Triangle breakout target 6025.


----------



## gartley (30 March 2017)

I doubt All ords will reach more than 6100 on this leg up. Thrust out of the triangle is at it's later stages. Daily and 8Hrs bars cycles analysis suggest between 5935-5989 if we are lucky.  Either it finishes today or no later than Wednesday next week.
More importantly. a triangle whether part of an impulse or corrective in nature is the penultimate pattern to the last wave in a sequence. As such the current  thrust out of the triangle will quickly be retraced back to the base of the triangle  and most likely much further down. Price and cycles have reached an extreme.


----------



## gartley (30 March 2017)

Will be interesting to see if we get a continuation in the SP500 from here. Taking the following analysis at face value, this leg up is close to being complete and a correction imminent.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2017)

Been reading and listening to rather a lot of macro economics / market stuff lately and it's all leading me to much the same conclusion. Noting a US focus here:

1. Now in the late stage of what has been a very long business cycle.

2. Fed is raising rates and that normally is followed by the economy, market or both falling in a heap.

3. Third most expensive US stock market in the past century.

4. Bond market seems to have peaked. Stocks tend to peak sometime after that historically.

5. Three stages in a bull market and we're now in the third stage.

6. The recent surge in the market isn't matched by what's happening in the real world on practically any measure. There's some growth but not to the extent that the market seems to be expecting. Then there's things like the price of copper which remains well below the peak.

7. Political risk is high.

8. Overdue for a substantial correction based on what's happened historically. That would be true even if there was no other reason for concern.

So my personal thoughts are increasingly that we're going to see some serious trouble ahead in the markets. I won't try and get the details right but I'm thinking in terms of the sort of decline that sees people postpone retirement plans and which literally everyone knows about regardless of their normal interest (or lack of it) in financial matters. So not just a 10 or 20% decline but something major.

That said, I still wouldn't be surprised if the markets continue higher in the short term. I just don't see how it adds up once the Trump euphoria wears off, whatever crisis arrives and there's a rush for the exits.

Have I lost the plot here and become way too bearish? Or are others having similar concerns?


----------



## qldfrog (10 April 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Have I lost the plot here and become way too bearish? Or are others having similar concerns?



This is just common sense Smurf and I share your thoughts.Obviously, the can could still be pushed a couiple of years: more negative interest, debt debt debt debt, and it can not end well;the trouble is that it is hard to resist but you have to think it that way: is the risk worthwhile for a 5% or so gain a year for maybe what 2-3 y at most and then lose most of your saving/assets with a 60/70% fall which would be match by economic/RE crisis?I believe we are too far ahead and got out from the stockmarket in the last month, from what was conservative to a hurricane shelter position;
But what is safe: I am a taker on any suggestion there: only so much USD/Gold and land can offer.A bit of bonds and some hybrids monitored daily for some income in the meantime. Gold and bonds can collapse too...
And I believe that when the **** hits the fan, whoever would have avoided the crash will be sucked dry by the governments in place (gold/cash/account ->seizure/confiscation/lock)
so any lateral idea is welcome


----------



## Logique (10 April 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Triangle breakout target 6025.
> View attachment 70551



This. In the near term, I think we move up next.  Still looks a a momentum play to me. 
But watching Gold very closely.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (11 April 2017)

If we can close above 5974 (Ords), the 6025 might happen tomorrow.  Then sell, I reckon.


----------



## Quant (14 April 2017)

Looks like the damage is done 6k XJO going to be a tough nut to crack medium term


----------



## MRC & Co (16 April 2017)

Looks like a market ready for a reset to me!


----------



## notting (19 April 2017)

Real News about Fake newsers -
_The US *Securities and Exchange Commission *announced Monday last week
Hundreds of articles published on top financial news websites were written by individuals *paid to promote certain biotech stocks*, it was scandal for consumers and upsetting for a segment of the news industry whose credibility is at stake._

_The SEC announced enforcement actions against 27 individuals and entities, including public companies, stock promotion and communications firms, executives and writers behind alleged schemes that gave investors the "impression they were reading independent, unbiased analyses on investing websites, while writers were being *secretly compensated for touting company stocks*." Of those charged, 17 have agreed to settlements ranging from $2,200 to nearly $3 million._

_The SEC complaints says the articles appeared on Benzinga,* Forbes*, Investor Village, Minyanville, *Seeking Alpha*, Small Cap Network, *The Motley Fool*, TheStreet and *Yahoo Finance*.

Doing it in a more subtle way - 


_


----------



## MrChow (28 April 2017)

I'm hoping Trump succeeds over the next 18 months with his fiscal policies as I want interest / bond yields run up as high as possible before the various asset bubbles keel over.  Stocks would continue their gains but would ultimately be built upon the greater fool theory.


----------



## CanOz (29 April 2017)

MRC & Co said:


> Looks like a market ready for a reset to me!




Struth, look what the cat dragged in!

Where ya been ole boy?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 April 2017)

MrChow said:


> I'm hoping Trump succeeds over the next 18 months with his fiscal policies as I want interest / bond yields run up as high as possible before the various asset bubbles keel over.  Stocks would continue their gains but would ultimately be built upon the greater fool theory.




Some of the things Trump is saying are worrying.  In particular his desire to return to his previous life and how hard the Presidential job is.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (29 April 2017)

Two men clearly want war, and the media is salivating.  Ridiculous.


----------



## notting (1 May 2017)

Trump was never set up mentally to be able to meet the demands of Presidency.  He may just become less bellious and allow everyone else to do the jobs and just make announcements.

The US and it's market is delusional at best.  Trump is the first fully fledged political and economic Evangelist.  The US is nuts, truth is dead it's all hype and bullsh!t - at least one person is making sense -

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/davi...ead-on-arrival-and-wall-st-is-delusional.html


----------



## Gringotts Bank (1 May 2017)

My charts today gave a breakout signal with a target of 6112.


----------



## Quant (3 May 2017)

Quant said:


> Headwinds mid 5900's
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Pretty confident we seen highs for a couple months now


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 May 2017)

Can't see XAO getting into the 6000-7000 range in the next 5yrs, it's got no hope


----------



## Quant (5 May 2017)

Possibly a short term bounce here but this will fail soon enough


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 May 2017)

Anything in the budget to move XAO? continue on its sick way


----------



## skc (9 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Anything in the budget to move XAO? continue on its sick way




Actually the market hasn't performed too badly. Normally when you see big 4 banks down 3-4% that's carnage situation across the market. But today, the damage is very much confined to the banks alone. Non-bank financials performed quite well and telecom and materials also held ground. The fact that the market is only down 0.5% overall shows that it is not an overall retreat from the equity market - but more a switch out of banks. 

Sell the rumour buy the fact... now that the transaction tax has been announced, it wouldn't surprise me if banks are flat or even green tomorrow. The tax is in essence an invitation for the banks to raise their interest rate for borrowers independent of the RBA. So that's why we are seeing the $AUD falling (as prospect of RBA raising rates is diminished). You'd also expect the regional banks might gain some market share as a result. So there are some of the thesis to build trades around tomorrow.


----------



## Quant (9 May 2017)

*Australia’s big banks hit by $6.2bn levy in budget cash grab*


https://www.theguardian.com/austral...al-budget-2017-banks-business-foreign-workers


----------



## Logique (10 May 2017)

Big 4 at 4-month lows, bargain hunters will come sniffing around soon enough.

The banks will pass along costs to customers and carry on their merry way. Where else are the customers going to go.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 May 2017)

The opening prices and sell down were a joke. Any additional taxes levied against the banks will simply be passed on to their customers by way of fees. They will be doing their utmost to maintain or improve their profits. After all, their bonus's are at stake.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 May 2017)

skc said:


> Actually the market hasn't performed too badly. Normally when you see big 4 banks down 3-4% that's carnage situation across the market. But today, the damage is very much confined to the banks alone. Non-bank financials performed quite well and telecom and materials also held ground. The fact that the market is only down 0.5% overall shows that it is not an overall retreat from the equity market - but more a switch out of banks.
> 
> Sell the rumour buy the fact... now that the transaction tax has been announced, it wouldn't surprise me if banks are flat or even green tomorrow. The tax is in essence an invitation for the banks to raise their interest rate for borrowers independent of the RBA. So that's why we are seeing the $AUD falling (as prospect of RBA raising rates is diminished). You'd also expect the regional banks might gain some market share as a result. So there are some of the thesis to build trades around tomorrow.[/QU




Good call, opening sell off followed by keen buying. Majors came off their lows fairly quickly and volume weighted averages higher than the opening price. It wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow saw the major banks tick higher.


----------



## Quant (14 May 2017)

2017 going to be an interesting and likely pivotal year . key points

1. Housing market only needs a RBA rate rise to prick that bubble
2. Low debt impairment at aussie banks will become under pressure if 1 eventuates , only one way to go
3. Many top 50 companies trading on high multiples ( 20 plus) that are normally attached to high growth , which isn't the case
4. Auto manu shutting down which is going to put pressure on UE rate and wage growth . 40,000 workers looking for jobs is the number ive seen floating around .
5. Price of commodities with Australia a dirt economy , IO recently come of significantly
6. The huge private debt to GDP . one of the largest worldwide.

I'm sure there are more points but these the main ones I see currently , pretty hard to get bullish equity markets in the medium term in my eyes . I just scanned the top50 and its difficult to find any compelling value , most of what I see is getting expensive . Equity wise US in much same shape  , I definitely see the risk to downside but as a trader I will trade what the charts give me but I'm happy to crush any pops for now in coming months  . I look at them as gifts


----------



## Quant (14 May 2017)

Quant said:


> 6. The huge private debt to GDP . one of the largest worldwide.



I was actually thinking of household debt to GDP in this instance  , my mistake although private debt aint that great either


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Some of the things Trump is saying are worrying.  In particular his desire to return to his previous life and how hard the Presidential job is.




I don't know how or why he bothers
The American people wanted change and got it and haven't stopped complaining since.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 May 2017)

The rba has no hope of lifting interest rates in the next five years, inflation is at low point of range, wage growth is still in downward trend

Everybody going to get tax increase with Medicare levy and most likely banks lifting rates slightly independent of RBA with bank levy

I feel we have to look at reducing the number of people coming to the country taking up unskilled employment/labour

Very tricky situation, I am very concerned that my capital(shares) is going to go nowhere in the next 5-10years


----------



## Quant (15 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> The rba has no hope of lifting interest rates in the next five years, inflation is at low point of range, wage growth is still in downward trend



My thoughts are if FOMC rate hikes continue eventually the RBA has no choice but to raise although I'm not convinced US FED keeps raising but it is the rhetotic atm  and a raise at next fed meet is priced


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2017)

The RBA may not but the banks will. 
Curbing immigration ?....I agree but it's too late and there's no hope of that happening, the Govt is useless when it comes to anything but stuffing things up and lining the pockets of the rorting politicians.
It's hard to find an Australian face among the crowd anymore, easy picking in dopy old Australia.


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2017)

Has anyone got an opinion on this mob -


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 May 2017)

Another night of records on international markets, probably be flat or down for Aussie share owners


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 May 2017)

+13.80 points, long way off high


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 May 2017)

One sick country, bear market rolls on


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 May 2017)

Don't go up with Dow, but go down with it all the time

Sick asset class, just a lotto


----------



## MrBurns (18 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Don't go up with Dow, but go down with it all the time
> 
> Sick asset class, just a lotto




I think many stocks are just the plaything of day traders. The movement in them screams "in early for the rise and out before the afternoon decline" if that makes any sense
I've got some BEN and that's what I see every day.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 May 2017)

40billion gone in 2 days, people's savings , retirement money, top budget from libs


----------



## CanOz (18 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> 40billion gone in 2 days, people's savings , retirement money, top budget from libs




This is half seasonal half macro.....not sure it's got anything to do with the budget.


----------



## notting (18 May 2017)

Let's just assume the market was baking in a company tax break from 25 to 15% in the listed companies in the US.
Then let's just assume that the punters were waiting before they sold because they thought they were going to get a similar tax break on the profits.
Then consider that the VIX was so flat cause it was too expensive to buy but no one was selling cause they were waiting.
So what might happen if Trumps promise is undeliverable even if the lunatic remains in charge....
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/29/davi...ead-on-arrival-and-wall-st-is-delusional.html

What a ya think may happen next?


----------



## Quant (18 May 2017)

CanOz said:


> This is half seasonal half macro.....not sure it's got anything to do with the budget.



we don't need to know why ,  in reality , we just need to know it " IS "   ... why is for economists


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (19 May 2017)

Off again today, why no one buying Aussie shares


----------



## kid hustlr (19 May 2017)

TL you are either way over exposed in shares for your comfort level or do not have a plan. Either way you need to educate yourself and/or understand what you are trying to achieve.

Coming onto a forum each day complaining the market is down does not achieve anything


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (19 May 2017)

Surely can comment about the performance of Aussie shares


----------



## Kryzz (19 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Off again today, why no one buying Aussie shares




Shouldn't be too suprised to see some downside at this juncture. Plenty of previous swing highs around this point and some slight divergence. I believe May returns approx -2% on avg over the last 20 years of data.


----------



## Bill M (19 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Surely can comment about the performance of Aussie shares



Of course you can, the thing is you have said it over and over on a couple of threads. Everyone can see what the markets are doing, it's what the markets do.

On a 12 Months basis the markets are up 6.43%, even after today. So it's not that bad and if you factor in about 5% worth of dividends + franking credits you are looking at around 12% returns, not so shabby is it?

I find that during weeks like this one gone by, it just throws up better opportunities to buy at lower prices, but it's only marginally lower and it's not super bargain basement if you know what I mean. I bought a couple of REITS this week with a average 7% yield, nothing fantastic but it will pay my pension payments with my super.

I am not fully invested now. A few pages back I was buying a lot of stocks when the markets were at 5100, it was a bargain then. Since then I sold a few parcels near the 5,900 mark. From my point of view any correction means buying good stocks at lower prices with higher dividends, something that takes a lot of patience to hang around for. Anyhow here's a chart for the last 12 Months.
http://www.marketindex.com.au/all-ordinaries


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 May 2017)

Will stay between these lines, imo.

Interesting article. * 
https://80000hours.org/blog/*


----------



## Logique (28 May 2017)

With the XJO at 5,751 in late May, it's safe to say these industry firms are watching closely! Their year end predictions in Jan 2017 were:


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 May 2017)

those industry firms wont have to much to worry about, not going to get over 6000

this day in 2015 the index was a touch higher, gone nowhere, its no wonder fund managers don't invest in Aus and people keep pushing there money into direct real estate


----------



## Klogg (29 May 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> this day in 2015 the index was a touch higher, gone nowhere




So dividends mean nothing?


----------



## Quant (6 June 2017)

Australian GDP announced tomorrow with a some banks calling a miss on the 0.3% consensus number . Australian and Chinese Balance of Trade following day  . Pivotal week data wise locally . Morgan Stanley has put a 12 month target of 5250 on XJO  . No mention of the " R " word but after tomorrow depending on #s we might start hearing it .  Pretty satisfied ive been a bear since May 1 .

""  Morgan Stanley cut Aus 2017 GDP forecast to 1.2% (from 2.1%) & half of the RBA's forecast of 2.5%. Also lower Q4 18 AUD/USD forecast to 64c ""

"We revise our ASX 200 target down to 5,250 (from 5,450 and now -9% price downside)".


----------



## Logique (8 June 2017)

This article is out there today. It is specific to the US, but would inevitably impact on local investor sentiment. The ASX has been soft for a month.







> *Sharemarket risk at highest level since before GFC, says Bill Gross*
> John Gittelsohn and Erik Schatzker:  http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...fore-gfc-says-bill-gross-20170607-gwmtz6.html
> 
> US markets are at their highest risk levels since before the 2008 financial crisis because investors are paying a high price for the chances they're taking, according to Bill Gross, manager of the $US2 billion ($2.7 billion) Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund.
> ...


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 June 2017)

Today's breakout gives a great big target of 5890.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2017)

I noticed something today which I've seen only a few times before.  *4* of my stocks had a last price above the offer.  Last time I saw this the market tanked.  fwiw.


----------



## skc (22 June 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I noticed something today which I've seen only a few times before.  *4* of my stocks had a last price above the offer.  Last time I saw this the market tanked.  fwiw.




This isn't that unusual for illiquid names...  it is highly unlikely that the temporary stock price behaviour of 4 illiquid names should predict the overall market direction?!

FWIW, there are 8 names currently within the XAO (491 stocks) that has Last > Offer.

CII FSA HUO MTO QMS RBL RKN TBR

So you have a pretty good hit rate getting 4 of them.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (22 June 2017)

skc said:


> This isn't that unusual for illiquid names...  it is highly unlikely that the temporary stock price behaviour of 4 illiquid names should predict the overall market direction?!
> 
> FWIW, there are 8 names currently within the XAO (491 stocks) that has Last > Offer.
> 
> ...




Mine were fairly liquid though.  I should buy a Tatts ticket, or maybe just short the Ords.


----------



## rb250660 (22 June 2017)

I see this all the time with the more illiquid crap I dabble with. I only ever trade in the ASX500 too.


----------



## traderxxx (22 June 2017)

yes gb, i agree short the all ords/spi and with a little luck
buy back at 5428.


----------



## peter2 (5 July 2017)

Crank up your market scans. There are signs that investors are happy to buy higher risk assets. The Emerging Market sector (market cap #350 - 600) or the bottom half of the XAO has started to move higher.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2017)

going to 5800.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2017)

If XAO closes today above 5768, it will go to 5825.


----------



## tech/a (13 July 2017)

traderxxx said:


> yes gb, i agree short the all ords/spi and with a little luck
> buy back at 5428.






Gringotts Bank said:


> going to 5800.






Gringotts Bank said:


> If XAO closes today above 5768, it will go to 5825.




Are you sure now?


----------



## notting (14 July 2017)

So Yellen has said market is looking toppy and follow it up with dovish rate tone and sais 3% GDP growth for the States is optimistic!!.  At this point you might start to wonder about the 20% Trumped up premium in the US stock markets should start to look a little poppy.


----------



## Quant (14 July 2017)

notting said:


> So Yellen has said market is looking toppy and follow it up with dovish rate tone and sais 3% GDP growth for the States is optimistic!!.  At this point you might start to wonder about the 20% Trumped up premium in the US stock markets should start to look a little poppy.



Well she isn't wrong but it still needs a catalyst to tip it over . Multiple of close enough to 26 starts to make risk free bonds look semi appealing even in this low rate world  .


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 July 2017)

the DOW will tip over 5-10%, will the XAO follow?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 July 2017)

asian markets hitting new highs,


----------



## Quant (17 July 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> the DOW will tip over 5-10%, will the XAO follow?





Toyota Lexcen said:


> asian markets hitting new highs,



Chinese GDP beat


----------



## MRC & Co (17 July 2017)

CanOz said:


> Struth, look what the cat dragged in!
> 
> Where ya been ole boy?




haha, I've been busy, focus elsewhere, but back now.

I thought we would go lower much quicker than we have, but I wouldn't bet on it now.....

Aus markets are severally limited in comparison to the gains in the US though!

Hope you have been well CanOz!


----------



## Quant (17 July 2017)

I would be reasonably surprised if we do not go lower before we go higher , I think May high may hold for rest of year  . XJO earn growth low at best .


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 July 2017)

What no outrage today?   Anyone.....?


----------



## rb250660 (18 July 2017)

Bit of a down tick hey.


----------



## Trembling Hand (18 July 2017)

rb250660 said:


> Bit of a down tick hey.



A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden. The banks are beaten within an inch of a breakdown. The reversal on BHP etc will look ugly if tomorrow isn't spritely.


----------



## Quant (18 July 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> What no outrage today?   Anyone.....?



I am the opposite of outraged


----------



## Quant (18 July 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden. The banks are beaten within an inch of a breakdown. The reversal on BHP etc will look ugly if tomorrow isn't spritely.



I sense that some out there know APRA is coming down on banks in forseeable future ala budget bank levy . news is in the price


----------



## Quant (18 July 2017)

Just an idea but given the AUD id suggest lots of foreign selling XJO on the AUD breakout  , not the price action of retail today  , proggy selling today


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 July 2017)

the sooner the APRA stuff is released the better, will be a breath of fresh air


----------



## rb250660 (18 July 2017)

Tell me about it TH. I was on a hot streak for 3 months, couldn't lose. Now I'm handing a decent portion of it back. Oh well, that's how it goes.


----------



## skc (18 July 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden. The banks are beaten within an inch of a breakdown. The reversal on BHP etc will look ugly if tomorrow isn't spritely.




Still broadly within this 150pt channel. It's false broken a few times so chances are the next break will be real, just to catch any smartar$e trying to fade the break. May be....


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 July 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> A lot of really ugly charts have appeared all of a sudden.




Look outside the big caps and there's no shortage of "ugly" charts to be found. 

Start bringing up random stock charts for a quick look. Use a 10 year chart and after a while you'll get bored with seeing the same pattern over and over. A huge plunge in 2008 with the GFC followed by a major rally which topped out long ago. Some stocks have been going up recently yes, but there's rather a lot that sure haven't.

My own opinion is that we'll see a "proper" correction before we see any major move up. By "proper" correction I mean the sort of decline that ordinary people with no particular interest in the market know about because it's big enough to be mainstream news. I could of course be wrong but that's my thought at the present time. A proper drop not just 5 or 10%.


----------



## notting (19 July 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Look outside the big caps and there's no shortage of "ugly" charts to be found.
> 
> Start bringing up random stock charts for a quick look. Use a 10 year chart and after a while you'll get bored with seeing the same pattern over and over. A huge plunge in 2008 with the GFC followed by a major rally which topped out long ago. Some stocks have been going up recently yes, but there's rather a lot that sure haven't.
> 
> My own opinion is that we'll see a "proper" correction before we see any major move up. By "proper" correction I mean the sort of decline that ordinary people with no particular interest in the market know about because it's big enough to be mainstream news. I could of course be wrong but that's my thought at the present time. A proper drop not just 5 or 10%.



Washington is still stagnating even with the Republican majorities that came with Trump. That was what the big Trump relief rally was all about. Looks like the smart money is all trying to exit before the 'muppets' get wind of it.

During the GFC they were all saying 'cash is king.'
No it wasn't the stock market was 'the king maker.'
Now they are all desperate to find something to do with cash. Cah is king when no one wants it!!!!!!
.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 July 2017)

skc said:


> Still broadly within this 150pt channel. It's false broken a few times so chances are the next break will be real, just to catch any smartar$e trying to fade the break. May be....
> 
> View attachment 71907



Exactly what I was thinking.  And given the size of the blob, the move will be big.


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 July 2017)

notting said:


> Washington is still stagnating even with the Republican majorities that came with Trump. That was what the big Trump relief rally was all about. Looks like the smart money is all trying to exit before the 'muppets' get wind of it.



Reckon you may have the wrong reason for the rally. Trump may have been the catalyst but not the reason. US consumer and large Cap companies are doing pretty good. Trumps inability to do anything doesn't mean the US consumer is going to cave in here. Their confidence about the economy is quite high even though their confidence in their President is at historical levels.


----------



## notting (19 July 2017)

Yeah but if Trump can't do anything and they start concentrating on the debt and deficit then realise the US confidence in Trump is misplaced, just as it was in Greenspan.
Trump is quite the American hog that US culture tend to like, the lack of confidence in Trump is more a global thing.   I think the citizens quietly love him.





 
 Home builder sentiment at eight-month low  12 Hours Ago | 01:23 

U.S. homebuilders should be feeling pretty good about their business, given the nation's severe shortage of homes for sale, *but a sharp spike in the cost of lumber is weighing heavy on their bottom lines.*

A monthly index of homebuilder confidence in the single-family market fell 2 points in July to 64 from a * downwardly revised *June reading. Economists had expected a reading of 68. Anything above 50 is considered positive, but this is *the lowest reading* on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index *since November — before the presidential election.*

"Our members are telling us *they are growing increasingly concerned over rising material prices*, particularly lumber," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a homebuilder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. "This is hurting housing affordability even as consumer interest in the new-home market remains strong."

*Builders were initially euphoric following the November election of President Donald Trump*, hoping the new administration would lift some of the heavy regulations that now account for about a quarter of the cost of putting up a new home. Builder confidence jumped 6 points from November to December (63 to 69) and then jumped again to 71 in March, following the administration's repeal of certain environmental regulations specifically involving water.

*Now, new tariffs on Canadian lumber of up to 24 percent announced by the Trump administration* in May, as well as the expectation of additional tariffs on other homebuilding materials imported from overseas, are *overtaking the benefits of deregulation.* The cost of framing lumber has spiked in recent months and continues to rise today, which only exacerbates already rising prices for land and skilled labor.

It should be noted that the 'strength' in the US property market, as in ours, is underlined by Chinese buying.  They are using their fake overvalued currency to effectively steal land world wide.  A lot of misplaced confidence comes from seeing your house prices rocketing up on highly dubious activity.


----------



## CanOz (19 July 2017)

lumber....Daily and monthly


----------



## Quant (19 July 2017)

Well the APRA wait is over and the bank relief rally is on ( short squeeze )

http://www.apra.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/17_23.aspx


----------



## Quant (19 July 2017)

Early days but looking to me only the weak shorts been squeezed today  , this APRA assessment will create earnings revisions due to the actions required to meet capital adequacy . Its still a sell/short the pops market for me in medium term  . My US indice volatility model has the market risk heavily skewed to downside for remainder of year  which just adds to my conviction  .

Edit . I liken todays squeeze as a similar kneejerk squeeze of late retail shorts much like the Govt Levy a couple months back , long term its not a positive for banks and will likely take a while to balance out   .


----------



## Trembling Hand (19 July 2017)

Was that APRA announcement scheduled for today? The action in the Bank stocks yesterday right from the first tick would suggest that someone was moving some volume and didn't care much if it was lower and lower prices. If it was scheduled then they seem to have got it very wrong, if it wasn't scheduled than F me they really stuffed up their insider info!!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 July 2017)

Speccies have plenty of juice.  I reckon long also.

If up tomorrow then short term target of 5844 (ords).

If anyone is interested in the benefits of meditation for trading, the new version of the Soundself beta is pretty good.  Only 30$.


----------



## skc (19 July 2017)

Quant said:


> Well the APRA wait is over and the bank relief rally is on ( short squeeze )
> 
> http://www.apra.gov.au/MediaReleases/Pages/17_23.aspx




APRA hasn't mentioned increase in the risk weighting of the mortgages.... the 10.5% CET1 on it's own is somewhat meaningless. May be APRA didn't want to rock the boat too much in a single day. The adjusted weighting is slated to come out later in the year according to APRA.

If the market decides to to catch onto this then the bank rally may not last much past lunchtime tomorrow.



Trembling Hand said:


> Was that APRA announcement scheduled for today? The action in the Bank stocks yesterday right from the first tick would suggest that someone was moving some volume and didn't care much if it was lower and lower prices. If it was scheduled then they seem to have got it very wrong, if it wasn't scheduled than F me they really stuffed up their insider info!!




Until late yesterday I've only known APRA announcement was due soon, but not today preciously. Either way if the shorters didn't get out on close yesterday they definitely stuffed up.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (19 July 2017)

its all in the Governments hands now and cant see APRA doing much more

getting to close to the election

still a lot of negativity around in AUS and the XAO may run up to 5900-5950 but if DOW tips over it will all vanish


----------



## Quant (19 July 2017)

skc said:


> If the market decides to to catch onto this then the bank rally may not last much past lunchtime tomorrow.



Totally agree


----------



## gartley (20 July 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> its all in the Governments hands now and cant see APRA doing much more
> 
> getting to close to the election
> 
> still a lot of negativity around in AUS and the XAO may run up to 5900-5950 but if DOW tips over it will all vanish



Pattern of trend in the US indices is scary. They are in major blow off moves, and looking at the DJI components (many have gone vertical in topping terminal phases) I would not be surprised to see this index climax in the next few days or at the very latest the next few weeks.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 July 2017)

Symmetrical triangle might be a better representation.  All commentary is bearish here.  Top of triangle tomorrow maybe before a turn back down.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (20 July 2017)

Or diamond/gann 45 deg style


----------



## notting (20 July 2017)

I short a lot of stuff.  But I have never shorted the big 4 or even the small 3 and not even the big Mac.
Have shorted SUN and AMP
Believe it or not I actually made money going long on the big four as they were plumeting during the GFC! with quick ins and outs.  NAB was the first.
How could you short them now when there is still this dividend hunger and they are fully franked at around 6?
This however has me slightly nervous for the first time in about 30 years of owning Ausi bank stocks -
http://www.theage.com.au/business/b...rmer-barclays-chief-says-20170719-gxes3l.html


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 July 2017)

Today a close below 5780 would be very bearish, imo.  Would represent a failed breakout.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 July 2017)

Now a perfect circle.  Unusual.


----------



## notting (21 July 2017)

It's mooning you


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 July 2017)

notting said:


> It's mooning you



http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...a/news-story/6b66be762552401472955c0c46692134


----------



## Quant (21 July 2017)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Now a perfect circle.  Unusual.
> 
> View attachment 71951



Pretty                                                                                                                                                                                            useless


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 July 2017)

The negative committee is in session.

Bulkowski might be interested.  The Gringott's Full Moon.


----------



## smallwolf (21 July 2017)

Quant said:


> Pretty                                                                                                                                                                                            useless




squish it from the top and bottom and it becomes an oval shape!


----------



## gartley (23 July 2017)

Taking the following fixed cycles analysis chart at face value, it suggests downturn will persist until approx October.  Note: cycle points no's only reflect points in time and their position to Y axis should be ignored.

https://invst.ly/4iy8w


----------



## gartley (23 July 2017)

The following chart analysis suggests a sell off and breakaway from the triangle pattern Monday or Tuesday.


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 July 2017)

gartley said:


> The following chart analysis suggests a sell off and breakaway from the triangle pattern Monday or Tuesday.



I can't see any indication on those charts of a change bar the potential of an uptrend in the Primary VIX and maybe some slight convergence of price and VIX. Can you point out the difference you see please?


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 July 2017)

Hoping this past few months absorption of selling holds. Think it will be long term holds that benefit from this near term depression. Buy the selloffs I say.


----------



## gartley (24 July 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> I can't see any indication on those charts of a change bar the potential of an uptrend in the Primary VIX and maybe some slight convergence of price and VIX. Can you point out the difference you see please?





Gladly.  First l will say that the market has done today exactly what the analysis suggested.
The modified VIX Fix is not the same as the VIX that you are familiar with. Firstly I have added a cyclical component to it. In the VIX FIX primary when the two centered moving averages converge and touch (and eventually cross) it suggests the trend is slowing.

If the trend is deemed to be slowing then I turn my focus the VIX Fix secondary. This I use for trying to time entries and exits. What I look for here is the brown CMA (centered moving average) to meet the the zero line and at the same time about to be penetrated by the green line (Vix Fix). That's my trigger.

There is a fair amount of discretion involved, but I should add that I use both of these with the PP (price projection) tool which I developed. The PP is the key because it provides an approximate LEVEL for a trend change and these two indicators work around this. At the moment the PP level ( which I have not shown here) is much lower then what the market is trading at. But if you read post # 2529 I have given an example of how the PP tool is helpful for forecasting changes in trend.

Cheers


----------



## gartley (24 July 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Hoping this past few months absorption of selling holds. Think it will be long term holds that benefit from this near term depression. Buy the selloffs I say.




I don't think the pattern of trend ( lower double top below 2007 high) will do the bullish case any good. That's my bias anyway!! Compare this long term chart with this example of the AUDJPY long term chart and the end result.  Time will tell......

https://invst.ly/4jcvq

https://invst.ly/4jcyj


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 July 2017)

Thank you Gartley. I notice the sentiment at TradingView is Strong Sell. Great to see the different perspectives.


----------



## gartley (24 July 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Thank you Gartley. I notice the sentiment at TradingView is Strong Sell. Great to see the different perspectives.




To be honest I take no real notice of the sentiment at that site as it's not a scientific study. 
Proper sentiment studies ( like Investors Intelligence)  cover a much bigger population. 

Even so I have not come across a proper sentiment index or study for the ASX???



I suppose


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 July 2017)

gartley said:


> Even so I have not come across a proper sentiment index or study for the ASX???



If there was some way to collate large market participants sentiment on a daily basis. Would rely heavily on honesty and I am sure if large positions were going to buy/sell they would not reveal so they don't spook the market. Still have to use price action I suppose.


----------



## gartley (24 July 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> If there was some way to collate large market participants sentiment on a daily basis. Would rely heavily on honesty and I am sure if large positions were going to buy/sell they would not reveal so they don't spook the market. Still have to use price action I suppose.





Maybe this one might be worth looking into. I have heard about it before although never used.

http://www.trade-futures.com/dailyindex.php


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 July 2017)

gartley said:


> Maybe this one might be worth looking into. I have heard about it before although never used.



Ha. The old least bullish at the low and most bullish at the high trick. Probably due to least bullish waiting for long moving averages or other long term bullish indicators before joining in. Once the most risk averse have joined it is all over. Opposite end is the all cosuming fear cycle.


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 July 2017)

Most of my XAO watchlist were in the red today but less than one percent on low volume. Hmmm.


----------



## craft (25 July 2017)

Trembling Hand said:


> The last time there was anything approaching momentum in this market it was late 2016. It has been stuck since. If you look at the underlying breadth there seems to be no standout pattern. It doesn't look like distribution or accumulation, more like disinterest!!
> 
> View attachment 71988
> 
> ...




What.


Just a single box. Only 2 colours! What sort of analysis is that.


This plainly won’t do. You are short at least 5 colours, 30 vertical lines, 10, horizontal and a bunch of diagonals.  Where are the letters? And the ratios to 16 decimal places. What about the averages even a simple one would do. What about indicators?- There’s thirty thousand you could have used and your too lazy to even give us one. Drawing tools – you know we have drawing tools – just one flag or H&S would that be too much to ask?


Ohh wait – A bored baby picture!!! Distinction!!!!


If only you used a bored cat it could have been the best chart on the internet ever.


----------



## craft (25 July 2017)

tech/a said:


> BORING and *very difficult for those with
> longer time horizons to turn a quid*.




I thought the bantar thread was for trolling - so I'll bite the bait here.

Actually, no I won’t.

Those that get it – already get it. Those that don’t – futile.

Needing instant gratification either psychologically or economically must be so constraining that it makes some paths unimaginable to some people.


----------



## notting (26 July 2017)

*Dr Copper,* the grand macro physician, is telling us, *'all is actually very well!'*
OZ, BHP and SFR doing very nicely.
The world is jumping in -
6000 on the way!?


----------



## notting (27 July 2017)

strong AU$ and mining stocks going strong.
Spells infrastructure spending in China.


----------



## greggles (28 July 2017)

Looks like we're in for another boring day on the ASX. 

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/68586-australian-shares-are-set-to-open-flat.html


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 July 2017)

Money exiting at range bound resistance again. Element of fear in the ASX for some reason.


----------



## notting (29 July 2017)

You had a reversal in the rise of the AUD which would have got internationals cashing in.
You have earnings season starting which is bringing more short lived volatility than ever these days so people getting out in front of that to set up for opportunities.
And of course Amazon the big deal these days disappointing a bit last night making many call the end to the Trump bump.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 July 2017)

Yes although for ASX200 around 5800 points is a pschological zone where > 8 times in the last 7 months it has turned down from. Hard to believe this area is the top 200 index fundamentally over valued.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 August 2017)

surely there is something wrong with the australian securities market when you see companies like TRansurban report numbers and the market forces it down

increase profit, increase dividend

Then you get IOOF rising with its results, CBA will be eagerly watched today and I am confident it will deliver a solid result but will it go up or down


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 August 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> surely there is something wrong with the australian securities market



Stil short term profit taking domination and longer term absorption going on.


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 August 2017)

Traders still jumping like fleas from a camel's back and buyers stepping up to accept but that is how platforms are formed. Not concerned about general price action.


----------



## Logique (9 August 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> surely there is something wrong with the australian securities market when you see companies like TRansurban report numbers and the market forces it down
> increase profit, increase dividend
> Then you get IOOF rising with its results, CBA will be eagerly watched today and I am confident it will deliver a solid result but will it go up or down



Indeed Toyota Lexcen and Wysiwyg.

Not sure I can remember a more perplexing XAO. Volatility, traders love, but this..what is this..


----------



## MrChow (9 August 2017)

Isn't identifying undervalued stocks a good thing?


----------



## Wysiwyg (17 August 2017)

Invitation to break out of range this coming trading day. Be nice to see the bears get run over and left behind.


----------



## notting (17 August 2017)

This is a weekly chart of a major US retail etf (note it has no Amazon) -






Seems somewhat contrarian to the talking heads and press


----------



## skc (18 August 2017)

notting said:


> This is a weekly chart of a major US retail etf (note it has no Amazon) -
> 
> Seems somewhat contrarian to the talking heads and press




This is consumer stables... the talking heads and press are talking about discretionary retailers and malls. They are pretty different.


----------



## dutchie (19 August 2017)

The XAO will crash, like other world markets, when the US markets crash.

This will eventually happen and Trump will be blamed. Not because he had any thing to do with it (the seeds have already been sown well before he became President) but because of other reasons that the general punter does not understand.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 August 2017)

dutchie said:


> The XAO will crash, like other world markets, when the US markets crash.
> 
> This will eventually happen and Trump will be blamed. Not because he had any thing to do with it (the seeds have already been sown well before he became President) but because of other reasons that the general punter does not understand.



Strongly agreed hence why I tend to pay more attention to the US market indices than local ones.

Three up stages in a bull market and the US is now in the third stage pretty clearly.

Easy money fueled the boom but the Fed is now tightening not just through higher interest rates but through upcoming balance sheet reduction as well.

Pick a measure, any measure you like or even invent one, and compared to the past century you'll find that the US markets are in the top 2 or 3 valuations in that period exceeded only by 2000 and/or 1929 depending on which measures you pick. 

And so on. There's trouble ahead in my view with the only question being the detail of what form it takes.


----------



## MrChow (19 August 2017)

Wasn't a similar thing said though when QE3 finished back in 2014 I think?


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 August 2017)

Here's an article with some less commonly used valuation criteria:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4054390-3-charts-show-stock-market-valuations-totally-unprecedented

But you could pick any measure you choose from good ole p/e through to something truly obscure and every single one I've looked at tells the same story.


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 August 2017)

Very rare to see such a long period of tight range. Trample the bears, trample the bears, trample the bears.


----------



## Quant (23 August 2017)

No-one is getting trampled  , only traders making money this last 3 months   . Top 50 trading on around 16 forward multiple with average sub 5% growth , no compelling value . I still favour down before up although I'm mega surprised it hasn't happened before now  .


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 August 2017)

As they say, the "wall of worry" is where we are at.


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 August 2017)

They also say we are at support area again. "Sell in May and go away" was perfect this year.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 September 2017)

will go Down more than the Dow and SandP500 today

Cant see it go over 6000 in next 5yrs, and most people will continue to get slaughtered by other asset classes

Opportunity cost?


----------



## notting (6 September 2017)

North Korea, hurricanes, not a lot of growth or inflating out of debt going on and this ` 


> "The size of the *financial economy *-- stocks and bonds globally -- is more than three times the underlying economy. It's quite possible that something happens there, which has a knock-on effect to the economy, rather than the other way around."




It's all good.


----------



## MrChow (6 September 2017)

XAO will go where the banks go, wonder if rate rises will help their margins in the next couple of years.


----------



## Porper (6 September 2017)

Banks will hold the XJO back but XSO (Small Ordinaries) has just broken higher out of the long consolidation pattern. A change of guard? Time cycles all significant using Fibs. Next one due in 2 days.


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 September 2017)

U.S. stock markets making all time highs routinely and the ASX can't string together two up days. A big  from me.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 September 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> U.S. stock markets making all time highs routinely and the ASX can't string together two up days. A big  from me.




You changed your signature.


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 September 2017)

I change them now and then as reminders to myself and maybe some encouragement for others.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (21 September 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> They are reminders to myself and maybe some encouragement for others.




I know what you mean.  When you really look deeply, the family structure is just a mechanism to ensure safety.  Structures that are formed to ensure safety will be motivated by fear (even if that fear is slight or imperceptible).  That's where aspects of control and manipulation creep in.  Not saying all families are like that, but many are.


----------



## traderxxx (21 September 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> U.S. stock markets making all time highs routinely and the ASX can't string together two up days. A big  from me.





hopefully the market, spi, can come off some more yet,   5602 ish.

mmm,  gb,,      when did this latest downrun start approx,    ah thats right
the 18th, a few days ago,


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (27 September 2017)

Still going nowhere, property destroying it


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 September 2017)

I would think the range trade would be well practiced by now. Isn't that when the range trade ends, when everyone is on it?


----------



## notting (27 September 2017)

Surely selling the fact should be on the cards tonight even if the tax plan is cracker for corporates in the US  tonight.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 October 2017)

be interesting to see where market finishes today

exchanges around the world push even further forward, not so for XAO


----------



## notting (3 October 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> be interesting to see where market finishes today
> exchanges around the world push even further forward, not so for XAO




ASX is doing pretty much exactly what it should in terms of REALITY.

But hey, where all heading for self driving cars and living on Mars.  Who knows where it will end!


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 October 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> exchanges around the world push even further forward, not so for XAO



I wonder what will happen to the XAO when the inevitable correction arrives internationally.

Australia holds up better than the US etc because we haven't had the big surge?

Or we're already weak relative to others and get absolutely smashed when markets fall globally?


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 October 2017)

In comparison to other markets our companies are being viewed as doing terrible and with no fiuture upgrade. Other markets (even severely in debt) hitting new highs. How bizarre.


----------



## PinguPingu (3 October 2017)

Yes, it seems nobody loves our ASX  

I like saving these articles and seeing where the currency/asset/market in question is in the next year or so. If you want to be the ultimate contrarian, go overweight ASX!

http://www.afr.com/personal-finance...ressed-with-australian-shares-20170929-gyrizf


http://www.afr.com/markets/the-asx-is-the-most-hated-market-in-asia-20170927-gypkbm


----------



## notting (4 October 2017)

The US market is not being sold because they are all waiting to see if they can get a tax break on their  profits!!
That's the difference.
Hmmm better watch out if tax reform happens!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 October 2017)

all major markets moved higher again

even regional property is outperforming XAO


----------



## notting (4 October 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> all major markets moved higher again
> even regional property is outperforming XAO




Haven't you noticed they follow like blind dogs.
Oh then of course, 'we're bring all that doe back to the good ol usa with a one time tax break.'
Can't imagine what that might do to internationals.  Just prepen


----------



## PinguPingu (4 October 2017)

Another AFR article (I do like how it skims over dividends, which if reinvested means you would be well past the '07 peak) 

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/shares-have-gone-nowhere-for-10-years-20171004-gyu0fj


----------



## lenny (5 October 2017)

XJO holding onto support by it's finger nails.

Looking very weak indeed.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (5 October 2017)

good link PP,

in the meantime property for most has seen CAPITAL double in value and would still be the main driver of wealth for aussie families (and thats excluding any reinvestment of rent)

the issue is the next 5yrs, 10yrs, how is it going to get up into 6000-7000 range, could very well be another 10yrs of zip


----------



## gartley (5 October 2017)

If the banks are in a bear market (which they look to be in, albeit early stages) then the ASX200 is not going to fare to well in the years ahead. Looking not good here at all, and just about to breakdown from the 5 month stalling pattern which largely has been influenced by the US Indices continued Wall St crooked rise.
US stocks topping out now and will be an interesting next couple of months.


----------



## History Repeats (5 October 2017)

Might be similar article from the AFR above, worth the read none the less. From my experience Australian market definitely lack excitement in terms of new listing compare to US or China for example.    
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-australia-behind-in-land-of-shrinking-equity


----------



## notting (6 October 2017)

gartley said:


> If the banks are in a bear market (which they look to be in, albeit early stages)



Pretty astounding given the lack of performance amidst the greatest property boom we have ever seen.
If it's forward looking then property might be in for a bit of a reality check.


----------



## gartley (7 October 2017)

notting said:


> Pretty astounding given the lack of performance amidst the greatest property boom we have ever seen.
> If it's forward looking then property might be in for a bit of a reality check.



Actually it's been a credit boom))
Will be interesting years ahead indeed!


----------



## notting (9 October 2017)

gartley said:


> Actually it's been a credit boom))
> Will be interesting years ahead indeed!




It's been a what?


----------



## satanoperca (9 October 2017)

Please Notting, you of all people know better.

Show us a graph of private debt vs gpd.

For f---ks such, do you really think property has boomed on the back of productivity or rather increased indebtness?


----------



## notting (9 October 2017)

I took the implication that it was being related to housing, if this is not a housing boom then I've never seen one.
Any way here's your chart on GDP



Double top?


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 October 2017)

N


notting said:


> Double top?




That was my thought looking at the chart before I saw your comment. Looks plausible.

I'm no perms-bear but I do think there's trouble ahead.

Debt can't really grow much more relative to GDP and incomes. At least it can't in a sensible manner without some huge risks and creative accounting.

Resource industry volume expansion is winding down leaving price as the only driver of any potential gains there.

US stock market in particular is extremely extended in terms of both valuation and duration of the current cycle.

Australian economy is heavily imbalanced and reliant on the housing boom and commodity prices. Value adding has been pretty much gutted.

Governments are in debt so not much ability to stimulate activity. Only exception might be at the local level - at least some councils are probably in good shape financially but the states and federal government sure aren't.

We've lost focus. Those old enough will recall the almost constant focus on being internationally competitive back in the 1990's. That term was in the mainstream news practically every day. Can't remember the last time I heard anyone who matters even mention it now though.

So I'm bearish in the medium term. That said, there's always the possibility that we're rescued again if commodity prices boom or China finds $ billions more to be moved out of the country ASAP.


----------



## pixel (10 October 2017)

For several months now, the All Ords chart has displayed trend channels in Price and MACD that run in opposite directions. Usually, an enduring divergence like this sees the price chart follow the direction of MACD, and only a strong MACD breakout convinces me otherwise.
I noticed similar divergence across global indices in late 2007.

Seems to get close to "It's time" again. And as you may have noticed, I'm mainly playing the speccie end of the spectrum for "quickies". For now, I'm largely in cash.


----------



## notting (10 October 2017)

People just can't bear to be  in cash when there are no returns.
It's been like this for some time and especially the last 2.5 years when it became apparent that this is an very strong market trend.
When no one wants to be in cash.  Cash is the place to be


----------



## Wysiwyg (10 October 2017)

See there is a concerted effort to turn the market down from 5800 yet again. Are big stacks gaming the XAO?


----------



## peter2 (11 October 2017)

Surely you're getting excited that the XAO is close to breaking-out of this channel. 
_Yes, of course but don't call me Shirley. _
The XAO is about to be Flying High.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 October 2017)

I hope so Peter,


----------



## Modest (11 October 2017)

Me three, Peter - please bid her up


----------



## notting (12 October 2017)

peter2 said:


> The XAO is about to be Flying High.




Tend to belligerently agree.  Never short a dull market.
This market is so dull I was betting on the Grand Final for my entertainment.


----------



## peter2 (12 October 2017)

Dull! This market is so dull that even @wayneL couldn't make it shine. 

OK what are the chances of another day up? I've changed my daily trend to up and another day up might change the weekly as well.


----------



## PinguPingu (12 October 2017)

So at peak negative media, the XAO is threatening to break out. Is the long, dark night almost over? The XSO is looking good to me...


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 October 2017)

Next break above target Feb highs of 5880.


----------



## History Repeats (12 October 2017)

Aud need to drop more for equity to break current range.


----------



## PinguPingu (17 October 2017)

ASX breaking out of the range October, 2017 (Colourised):


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2017)

Do you mean it wasn't a fantasy?


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 October 2017)

After stringing 8 days of rises together the XAO has closed lower. Lets make 5970 - 5980 an epic resistance zone. Yeah that should unsettle and frustrate.


----------



## Modest (19 October 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> After stringing 8 days of rises together the XAO has closed lower. Lets make 5970 - 5980 an epic resistance zone. Yeah that should unsettle and frustrate.




G'day although we don't see eye to eye trading, I think she will go lower before higher. What can I say, just my gut instinct - not supported by any spreadsheet formulas or Quantum algorithm processing node complex attribute master cost controller or HBF inverter.


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 October 2017)

Modest said:


> not supported by any spreadsheet formulas or Quantum algorithm processing node complex attribute master cost controller or HBF inverter.




so try the retro-encabulator with phase shifted sperzel and ambi-facient multi-sinosoidal updates


----------



## Modest (19 October 2017)

Joules MM1 said:


> so try the retro-encabulator with phase shifted sperzel and ambi-facient multi-sinosoidal updates


----------



## Modest (19 October 2017)

Modest said:


> G'day although we don't see eye to eye trading, I think she will go lower before higher. What can I say, just my gut instinct - not supported by any spreadsheet formulas or Quantum algorithm processing node complex attribute master cost controller or HBF inverter.










But but, AFR posted an article yesterday saying this rally was going to keep on going and going?! Some experts!


----------



## PinguPingu (19 October 2017)

reee fairfax ruining my ****, although I'll take a 50 pint dip if we keep going to 6200.


----------



## notting (21 October 2017)

"At Credit Suisse Group AG’s prime brokerage desk in midtown Manhattan, the phone hardly seems to ring anymore. Its hedge fund clients don’t call about Donald Trump’s tweetstorms and the stock market or ask what to do when terrorists attack. And there was barely a whiff of panic when North Korea erupted in August. “Two rockets flew over the land mass of Japan and nothing happened,” says Mark Connors, Credit Suisse’s global head of risk advisory. “There were no calls. That’s absolutely crazy.”

Crazy maybe, but it’s become the norm on Wall Street. Whether it’s the threat of nuclear war, hurricanes, or Russian meddling, it seems nothing can unnerve investors bent on pushing the U.S. stock market higher and higher. Even Richard Thaler, who won a Nobel Prize last week for explaining how irrationality drives financial markets, said on Bloomberg Television he couldn’t understand why stocks keep going up now."


Let me explain - they are waiting for the tax cut so that when they sell they will get taxed alot less.


----------



## cynic (21 October 2017)

notting said:


> "...Even Richard Thaler, who won a Nobel Prize last week for explaining how irrationality drives financial markets, said on Bloomberg Television he couldn’t understand why stocks keep going up now."
> 
> 
> Let me explain - they are waiting for the tax cut so that when they sell they will get taxed alot less.
> ...



So one grandaddy of all grandaddies of sell downs, could be on the cards once that tax cut comes into effect?


----------



## notting (21 October 2017)

You bet, probably along with some 'event,' that will take the headlines.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 October 2017)

I've definitely noticed that things which would have sent the market down in the past have no effect now.

All news is good news it seems. The market goes up or briefly sideways but it doesn't go down.

The tax cuts is an interesting one that I hadn't thought of as a possible explanation.


----------



## Value Collector (22 October 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've definitely noticed that things which would have sent the market down in the past have no effect now.
> 
> All news is good news it seems. The market goes up or briefly sideways but it doesn't go down.
> 
> The tax cuts is an interesting one that I hadn't thought of as a possible explanation.



Those "things that would have sent the market down" are they actually things that should send a rational market down?

I mean are they the types of things that have a negative effect on the profitability of companies to an extent that the companies valuation should change and owners should sell for less?


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 October 2017)

I'm referring to the reality that in the past the mere hint of political instability sent markets down.

In 2017 not even missiles actually being fired over Japan is seen as a negative by markets.

It just seems that all news is seen as good news be it financial, political or anything else. The market now goes up on account of events that in the past would have sparked a sell off.

I don't have any hard stats to back this but it's how it looks to me.


----------



## Logique (22 October 2017)

Agree. Teflon-coated US market in particular.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (22 October 2017)

I can't remember where I read this but some investor once said:

The best way to tell if you're in a bull market: the market goes up on good news, the market goes up on bad news.

The best way to tell if you're in a bear market: the market goes down on bad news, the market goes down on good news.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (22 October 2017)

Maybe it was Stock Market Wizards?



> When markets are trending up strongly, and there is bad news, the bad news counts for nothing. But if there is a break that reminds people what it is like to lose money in equities, then suddenly the buying is not mindless anymore. People start looking at the fundamentals, and in this case I knew the fundamentals were very ugly indeed.






> Now that you have switched from net long to net short, what would get you long again? – Buying. If all of a sudden stocks stopped going down on bad news that would be a positive sign.


----------



## notting (23 October 2017)

Value Collector said:


> I mean are they the types of things that have a negative effect on the profitability of companies to an extent that the companies valuation should change and owners should sell for less?




Well not necessarily a rational market, but the stock market, historically does react to potential world wars, Europe falling apart and lunatic presidents chosen by Russians. Well yeah it's unusual for sure.

But probably not so much when, companies are going to get the best of the tax cuts so will be more profitable after tax, which makes them more attractive for shareholders, who will also make more after tax profit by not selling yet.  On top of that the companies are all pretty much buying back their own stock with borrowed cheap money to add to the bonanza because after the tax cuts that would prove to have been a value added investment.

Is this a sign of the first crack appearing in the tax bill? -




Sounds like a caveat for big bill failure, 'we did get something through look at all this -.'


----------



## Value Collector (23 October 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm referring to the reality that in the past the mere hint of political instability sent markets down.
> 
> In 2017 not even missiles actually being fired over Japan is seen as a negative by markets.





Maybe the market has been rocked by so many things in the last 17 years, its slowly been realised that the economy is pretty resilient, e.g Terror attacks, wars, nuclear meltdowns, hurricanes, earthquakes, Donald trump, North Koreans etc etc don't tend to reduce the profit of the Coca Cola company.

So people don't want to panic sell their shares as easily, they are desensitised.

A giant earth quake is a human tragedy, and people will feel bad, but they will still go to the movies and buy a coke with lunch tomorrow, and the world will keep turning.


----------



## notting (23 October 2017)

Value Collector said:


> Maybe the market has been rocked by so many things in the last 17 years, its slowly been realised that the economy is pretty resilient, e.g Terror attacks, wars, nuclear meltdowns, hurricanes, earthquakes, Donald trump, North Koreans etc etc don't tend to reduce the profit of the Coca Cola company.
> 
> So people don't want to panic sell their shares as easily, they are desensitized.
> 
> A giant earth quake is a human tragedy, and people will feel bad, but they will still go to the movies and buy a coke with lunch tomorrow, and the world will keep turning.




As a long term investor that is a view one can bank on, providing the population is still expanding on earth!

Historically, markets are driven by human nature and when ever you think the paradigm has changed beyond that, somehow, you get into some medium and short term turmoil like 50% draw downs and so on.

However, the new emergence of all kinds of ETFs being preferred by  investors on the whole as a way of managing risk and their ability to cope psychologically with being hung over a cliff, in the wake of the GFC does seem to have curtailed volatility as has all the machine based, technical trading which could be moving the dial on that historical human nature factor.

But then there will be the machine or ETF based black swan that no one saw coming and the crash will be like nothing you have ever seen before!


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 October 2017)

notting said:


> But then there will be the machine or ETF based black swan that no one saw coming



Something I learned long ago about forecasting, modelling etc is that there's always some combination of events that nobody foresaw or which was so unlikely it wasn't considered credible. That's the one that gets you when it happens.

Real world things like engineering provide plenty of examples like that.

Circa year 2000 I was involved with finding the cause of an electronic control system which had been in constant (24/7/365) operation since 1977 and has suddenly failed for no apparent reason.

Long story short - after a lot of investigation it was found that nothing had broken as was first assumed but that a specific combination of inputs occurring in the right order and timing would immediately cause it to fail. It had taken more than two decades to occur but the vulnerability was there right from the start just waiting for the required trigger to make it fail. Once that was known it could be made to fail consistently by triggering the problematic input sequence.

It's very likely that the large scale automated trading systems will have vulnerabilities of that nature. Some combination of otherwise harmless events which nobody thought of and which causes an undesirable outcome. It's not certain but it's very plausible and we'll only know for sure if it actually happens.


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2017)

notting said:


> But then there will be the machine or ETF based black swan that no one saw coming and the crash will be like nothing you have ever seen before!




I tend to agree with what Charlie says here.


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's very likely that the large scale automated trading systems will have vulnerabilities of that nature. Some combination of otherwise harmless events which nobody thought of and which causes an undesirable outcome. It's not certain but it's very plausible and we'll only know for sure if it actually happens.




That wouldn't affect true "rational Investors", in would be something for them to take advantage of.


----------



## qldfrog (27 October 2017)

is it just me or is today's trade graph a bit scary


----------



## rb250660 (27 October 2017)

Bloody Barnaby and his foreign mates did that.


----------



## qldfrog (27 October 2017)

rb250660 said:


> Bloody Barnaby and his foreign mates did that.



yeap, forgot about that, this explains..some more wasted time ahead for Australia.
As if we can afford any more of this stagnation and political vacuum.


----------



## Logique (28 October 2017)

qldfrog said:


> yeap, forgot about that, this explains..some more wasted time ahead for Australia.
> As if we can afford any more of this stagnation and political vacuum.



As rb said above, it had much to do with the Federal politics of the day, and the fear that it may bring us closer to a royal commission into the banks.  But on the overnight O/s lead and Futs, it looks like a better day on Monday


----------



## gartley (28 October 2017)

All Ords at or approaching significant time point here. SPX monthly cycles at extreme level relative to earlier major tops. 86 month cycle pointed down already and all it needs is either of the 42 or 22 month cycle to point down and join it and see ya later


----------



## Triathlete (28 October 2017)

gartley said:


> All Ords at or approaching significant time point here. SPX monthly cycles at extreme level relative to earlier major tops. 86 month cycle pointed down already and all it needs is either of the 42 or 22 month cycle to point down and join it and see ya later



Maybe it was a last push to break and stay above 6000??? Nervous times...Any comments on the XAO monthly chart attached...??
 Does anyone else have an opinion in regards to EW with their own chart.???


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 October 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Maybe it was a last push to break and stay above 6000??? Nervous times...Any comments on the XAO monthly chart attached...??
> Does anyone else have an opinion in regards to EW with their own chart.???
> 
> View attachment 73187




for a probability conversation to begin the chart needs to be correctly labeled

see 1 and 2 (squared)


----------



## gartley (28 October 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Maybe it was a last push to break and stay above 6000??? Nervous times...Any comments on the XAO monthly chart attached...??
> Does anyone else have an opinion in regards to EW with their own chart.???
> 
> View attachment 73187




Largely depends how far Wall Street crooks and Fed fraudsters continue to pump up US markets))


----------



## Triathlete (28 October 2017)

Joules MM1 said:


> for a probability conversation to begin the chart needs to be correctly labeled
> 
> see 1 and 2 (squared)



Yeh I see what you mean


----------



## Triathlete (28 October 2017)

Joules MM1 said:


> for a probability conversation to begin the chart needs to be correctly labeled
> 
> see 1 and 2 (squared)


----------



## notting (28 October 2017)

As much as I hate it ......


----------



## $20shoes (28 October 2017)

I haven't posted here for AGES  but i lurk a bit 

I see the daily as putting in a Wave B top now/soonish. 
On the weekly I think there's some evidence to suggest we commence a 5 wave decline to C.


----------



## Triathlete (29 October 2017)

notting said:


> As much as I hate it ......




That is an interesting pattern. I guess we will need to wait and see if we can break through 6000 points solidly or not...Patience required.


----------



## gartley (20 November 2017)

Just heading off the XAO tangent a little here, the following charts: monthly bars cycles for DJIA and Quarterly bars cycles for SP500 I think might be interesting. Whilst they are not precision timing in anyway they have proven to be an invaluable guide pre and after GFC for me.  The Quarterly bars spreadsheet of the SP500 shows what the chart looked like in 2010 and and what it suggested and then I have the same plot of what it looks like now. The DJIA monthly shows what the cycles analysis for the DOW looked like across various timeframes as of a few weeks ago.  Suffice to say it looks like prices have certainly reached an extreme here.


----------



## Wysiwyg (28 November 2017)

Possible to get bullish into December for the mythological Christmas rally?  Still way below GFC highs while other countries have moved on.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 November 2017)

Disaster for most share investors the past 10yrs

Just stuck, capital going nowhere, 

5yrs maybe to get out of this pattern


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 December 2017)

Clear 'lower highs' throughout the specs, but at the same time, they are reaching support.  imo, there will be a turn up next week and a chance to exit, but sellers will be all over it.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 December 2017)

Ords - 5982 looks like it will be revisited.  Then what?  Probably a small, quick bounce and then the bears come in.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (8 December 2017)

Reversion stocks had an enormous pay day with the first drop-and-pop (mid Nov).  Now they're getting blown out pretty badly.  A lot of the small stocks look like they're going to grind along for a while on low volumes, because whilst many of them are at support, the juice has gone.


----------



## Wysiwyg (13 January 2018)

Super funds invested in the share market should do well again this FY after a lengthy trendless period and a break higher. Obviously international shares would have been the place to be for the buck bang.

About 10 months of sideways on the stock market works well for Super Funds.


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 January 2018)

xao/xjo share same trend qualities, ftse is on 144 week cycle this week, maybe dax too without new high

some demarcations exist







100 ema around 5940 xjo
next larger same size swing south would give a target mid to low 5800's

are we due a decent swing to reset uptrends ?
retail cfd's are currently 73% long front month contract - buying the dip

cookin in Melbourne


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 January 2018)

xao displays same symmetry construct to xjo, attempts to hold todays low for (spi bids likely to get spanked overnight)


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 January 2018)

essentially, both xao & xjo can be said to be trending in the small downchannel
price held at last weeks low but bids failed to come...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (22 January 2018)

Yeah another pathetic performance for the Xao

The top50 stock component is just doing nothing for many years

These are the type of stocks in peoples SMSF and just being left behind. People will have to make a decision to sell and get out for a loss and get into international equities or ETF.

Can’t see myself buying anything but a ETF in the future


----------



## Country Lad (22 January 2018)

I posted this chart elsewhere a little while ago.  Here is an update in case someone is interested.


----------



## Logique (24 January 2018)

Nice work with these charts Joules and Country Lad.

The XAO had a good second half, no doubt. Whether this next upward leg can crack 6250 will be instructive


----------



## notting (24 January 2018)

XAO is just fine.  The way the US trades is insane and has been for ever.


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 January 2018)

144 week cycles are holding uptrends back in the euro zone and appears xjo/xao are back on sells .......at least that's my lean-to

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...ets-traders-banter.24462/page-221#post-971975


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 January 2018)

Surely the Australian authorities would have to create a bond buying program to improve our country


----------



## Joules MM1 (31 January 2018)

nice U-turn !


----------



## kid hustlr (31 January 2018)

Our whole market is just a churn fest I've decided.

J, looks as though it's the defensive stocks and the yield plays getting short covered on the back of CPI. Noting that the price action is very bullish on the index short term low in place?


----------



## Modest (31 January 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> nice U-turn !




Shake and bake! 

ASX200 to 6125 in no time


----------



## Logique (31 January 2018)

It's almost as if Wall Street wanted to gatecrash President Trump's first State of the Union address.

The XAO, although not as technically extended as the Dow and NASDAQ, nonetheless shrugged it off.

The US market indices, technically - unprecedented in recent history, unless you go back to the days of dotcom boom. It's a wall of worry now.  But on the other hand - right now, where else are you going to make a dollar?

Marcus Padley in the Aust papers today - mate you didn't re-enter late last year, when so many _did_ take the punt. Deal with it.


----------



## Joules MM1 (31 January 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Our whole market is just a churn fest I've decided.
> 
> J, looks as though it's the defensive stocks and the yield plays getting short covered on the back of CPI. Noting that the price action is very bullish on the index short term low in place?




xjo/xao still prone to getting smashed as the zone is pretty wide and the bids can dry up pdq without effecting the larger trend ...nothing set.....and note at the low this morning the cfd asx200 were sbu 50% longs, a good set for at least a short term rotation


----------



## kid hustlr (31 January 2018)

Yes J I'm seeing it the same - internal rotation apart of conceptually a larger term meh bull trend. Can't see the animal spirits in our market.


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 February 2018)

front month cfd contract shorts just shot up 12% to 71% sells 'all clients' (29% longs)
 .....retail....only insurance hedging, huh!


----------



## Modest (2 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Shake and bake!
> 
> ASX200 to 6125 in no time







Markets are random! Markets are Rigged! RHEEEEEEE!


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Markets are random! Markets are Rigged! RHEEEEEEE!




that's the way ....put your back into it!


----------



## Modest (2 February 2018)




----------



## Modest (2 February 2018)

Modest said:


>




Dump she did


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Dump she did




DAX/CAC/FTUH all took the ASX200 and SPX down with them....after hours...
comfort know you cannot said yoda trader


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Dump she did




nice trade, extra pepe $'s!!

i'm collecting sterling und euros


----------



## Modest (3 February 2018)

What if I told you I knew it was going to dump the day I targeted 6125 (2 days ago)?


What if it is all predetermined?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 February 2018)

Modest said:


> What if I told you I knew it was going to dump the day I targeted 6125 (2 days ago)?
> 
> 
> What if it is all predetermined?




If you did tell me that I'd ask you to stop being cryptic and speak plainly.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 February 2018)

be 11 years of going nowhere

shares vs property


----------



## greggles (5 February 2018)

A sea of red after the open this morning. XAO down around 90 points.

Any bright (green) spots out there?


----------



## Country Lad (5 February 2018)

greggles said:


> A sea of red after the open this morning. XAO down around 90 points.
> 
> Any bright (green) spots out there?




Here's a few midcps


----------



## greggles (5 February 2018)

Is everyone watching the Superbowl instead of the plunging market today?


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 February 2018)

greggles said:


> Is everyone watching the Superbowl instead of the plunging market today?




mate, the pm _*IS*_ the sb !!  .......   ....


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 February 2018)

froth got knocked out of the local codes today .....take a gander at the competition board
21 out of 33 red https://www.aussiestockforums.com/competition/


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 February 2018)

that's a fairly well constructed and  impulsive leg down xao/xjo ......we're a few days away from when stock discounts become stock bargains


----------



## greggles (5 February 2018)

XAO down 111 points so far today. I think the local market is anticipating further falls on the US market this evening and expect that XAO will end up further down by the close.


----------



## Modest (5 February 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> If you did tell me that I'd ask you to stop being cryptic and speak plainly.




The market is not random


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 February 2018)

Looks like property will remain the only way for Aussie's to create wealth


----------



## Cam019 (6 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Looks like property will remain the only way for Aussie's to create wealth



Don't think so. Try here, here and here for starters.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 February 2018)

How much they make?


----------



## gartley (6 February 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> froth got knocked out of the local codes today .....take a gander at the competition board
> 21 out of 33 red https://www.aussiestockforums.com/competition/



Yeah.  Doesn't look like it will be over soon either.
Best place to be is on the sidelines, short, GOLD or if taking a punt maybe Gold miners me thinks


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 February 2018)

60 billion lost

Terrible event for people trying to make there way in life

Still to get over pre gfc levels, 11yrs ago


----------



## Value Collector (6 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> 60 billion lost
> 
> Terrible event for people trying to make there way in life




Except nothing is really lost, 

people that didn't sell still own all the same assets they owned before.






> Still to get over pre gfc levels, 11yrs ago




But the market has more than doubled if you count the dividends.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 February 2018)

1000 11yrs ago is 1000 today plus dividends

Of course it's lost


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 February 2018)

Trend lines going back 5 and 10 years on the weekly and monthly XAO indicate the next buying opportunity is at 5250.

I dare not predict the future. Careful stops on stocks at 5250 of the XAO may protect you from a wipeout as the next buying opportunity is at 4250.

And don't anyone say it couldn't happen and I won't say it could.

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 February 2018)

Well I beat the market today but still lost money. Damn.....

As for the overall situation, my thinking is that this marks the visible start of a topping process which will take quite some time. The sky will fall but not yet and we’ll see prices higher than they are now before there’s anything serious to worry about. That’s referring to the US market which I pay most attention to but we’ll follow no doubt.


----------



## notting (6 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> 1000 11yrs ago is 1000 today plus dividends
> Of course it's lost




10.x years ago was not a great time to buy! You needed to wait a few months!


----------



## systematic (6 February 2018)

Someone buying at the absolute peak (last quarter of 2007) has made a positive return ~3.30% pa to date.
That beat inflation (albeit barely!) - which averaged 2.4% over the same period.  
Real (after inflation) wealth grew ~9.60% total, over the period.
You'd have done as well (or a bit better) in cash, without the volatility - but who'd have known?

Doesn't seem like a great result until you realise that markets can do _worse _than that over 10 year periods.

The thing is - there really isn't a promise that a market's trajectory will be up; at the very least not over the periods we usually consider.


----------



## kid hustlr (6 February 2018)

Well said.

This is why we are encouraged to purchase consistently over a long period of time - this way you can't be the person was all in at the top.


----------



## Country Lad (6 February 2018)

One advantage with this drop.  Went through tonight's scans quite quickly.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 February 2018)

Who was in at the top?


----------



## Value Collector (6 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> 1000 11yrs ago is 1000 today plus dividends
> 
> Of course it's lost




Do you understand how compounding works?

Even if you bought 11 years ago, right at the top, by compounding your dividends back into the index for 11 years you would have more than doubled your money over that time, so where is the loss?

If you bought 10 or 12 years ago, 1 year either side if the peak, you would have maybe tripled your money.


----------



## Country Lad (6 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Who was in at the top?




EOS.  Unfortunately, it is not one for buying for me - I already own it.  Bought it 10 Jan at 281 when bar chart pattern broke, broke from P&F pattern and broke Darvas. 

Had no choice in holding on to it the last couple of days because it was suspended.


----------



## notting (6 February 2018)

Playing with fully franked dives is  good too. Take them and buy back in at lower levels rather than let the company do it for you. This way you avoid some of the capital gains tax.
If you can't get back at a lower level than the ex date of the stock which happens, then buy one of the others after it drops or that is down, but still some dog you want to own.


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 February 2018)

soah......good day to be hunting those cheapy etf's, huh


----------



## systematic (7 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Who was in at the top?




Well, if you weren't in at the top - you'd have performed better.  I was providing a worst-case.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 February 2018)

notting said:


> Playing with fully franked dives is  good too. Take them and buy back in at lower levels rather than let the company do it for you.



It can also make the accounting simpler by avoiding lots of small purchases of the same stock all at different times and prices.


----------



## notting (7 February 2018)

*Morgan Stanley's* strategists find that Australia's historically "defensive" role in a Asia-wide correction is complicated by *"a subdued earnings pulse and building domestic risks in consumer and housing". *(Historically one may assume they got that wrong for about 200 years.......so far!)

"*For much of 2017 we watched the market trade well above our base case index targets* and embrace bull case multiples," they write. "*The ASX 200 was out of sync with the earnings recovery seen in regional and global markets *but participated in the global trend towards paying up for earnings."

But at 6000 points, the Australian market demanded better earnings growth to justify the multiples.

*Morgan Stanley's ASX 200 target is 5800 points. 
*
Amazone PE 225
Netflix  PE 203

Now go find four of the worlds safest and best banks paying around 6% div per ann for ever, Morgan!


----------



## greggles (9 February 2018)

Here we go again. Big down day ahead of us on the ASX. I suspect there may be a little more pain today than on Tuesday for two reasons.

Firstly, I suspect that there will be a little more fear that last night's plunge on US markets might be the start of a larger correction or perhaps even a bear market.

Secondly, it's Friday. Everyone wants to sleep well on the weekend. I think that a lot of open positions will be closed today with people waiting to see what tonight and early next week brings.

Brace yourselves for another sea of red today.


----------



## CanOz (9 February 2018)

How to tell a bear market from a bull market : bear markets close lower on Friday as investors shed risk (fear) ahead of the weekend. Bulls markets close higher on Fridays as investors experience fomo. 

This used to be statistically sound before the rise of the machines....let's see how Friday finishes.


----------



## notting (9 February 2018)

S & P sold off late Wednesday, which would have been another ETF repatriation hour!
It had been up all day. But last night was far more systemic and bearish.  Everything just went down all day and finished on the bottom.
I went to bed (unusual, I know) after watching Twitter come of age thinking damn the fun is over, now they will get all excited over tech and on we go.
So was surprised this morning.  So happy to see Amazon tank 4% I hate that stock soooooo much.
Did anyone notice the export numbers out of China yesterday? They usually overshoot consensus by a bucket load.  However -
China's trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 20.34 billion in January 2018 from USD 50.21 billion in the same month a year earlier and way below market consensus of USD 54.1.

I should add that there has also been quite a strong correlation with stock markets and the oil prices of late.
*the 10-year note yield touched 2.88 per cent on the day* - was a key driver of the day's shakeout on American bourses.
Investors hopefully have finally stoped being *in a state of denial *about the Treasuries supply ramifications of a ballooning US federal budget deficit. If China really wants to fuc$ with the US now would be the time to ease up on treasury purchases!! This could be quite devastating for yield control.
US federal deficit could push through *5 per cent of GDP by 2019*.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (9 February 2018)

As long as get dividend it's cool


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 February 2018)

today looks a good buying day, $spx hit a strong ratio low, over hyped jibba jabba has mixed in the socmedia idiotsphere


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 February 2018)

if in doubt seek a decent yield (index) etf for locals ......that's my new drum i'm banging

haha ......caveats ...and don't hurt yaself, k!


----------



## greggles (9 February 2018)

Reaction on the ASX has been fairly subdued this morning with the XAO down a relatively modest 77 points or 1.3%. The market action this afternoon should be interesting. I predict that we will see a late afternoon selloff in the last couple of hours. As tech/a mentioned, the odds of a further decline on the US market tonight are good and many will be looking to exit positions today with a view to re-entering after the dust has settled.

My guess is the XAO will finish the day around 2.5% down.


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 February 2018)

hello shorters and gurus


----------



## Modest (9 February 2018)

ES higher please


----------



## notting (9 February 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> hello shorters and gurus
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Especially on a Friday, when the markets tend to reverse a bit of what it does during the week after the S&P finished like this the night before  -




A good time to take money off the table and wait for a bit of consolidation at the very least, I reckon.
Ausi $ coming off, a further sign of risk aversion and reason for internationals to avoid ASX.
Around a Trillion Treasuries to be auctioned this year. How is that 10 year yeild gonna cope with that!


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 February 2018)

seen better legs on a donkey

suits the sell side


----------



## greggles (9 February 2018)

greggles said:


> My guess is the XAO will finish the day around 2.5% down.




Ooops! Bad call. I suppose the US markets were far more overbought than the ASX, so any large correction will probably hit the US harder. Either that or there are plenty of punters betting that the US markets are in for a rebound tonight. Will be an interesting evening.


----------



## greggles (13 February 2018)

US Market bounces back overnight with DJIA up 410 points. Should restore some confidence in the local market. XAO should see some good gains today.


----------



## PZ99 (13 February 2018)

Futures point to a good start. Where it goes after that will probably depend on the Business survey due at 11:30


----------



## Modest (14 February 2018)

Looking for a drop on the ASX200 tonight, targeting for 5,740. I am positioned appropriately with a tight leash on this bad girl.

Let’s see if she pukes


----------



## CanOz (14 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Looking for a drop on the ASX200 tonight, targeting for 5,740. I am positioned appropriately with a tight leash on this bad girl.
> 
> Let’s see if she pukes




I reckon if it takes out 5768 then 5710 is a good possibility...however, 5811 invalidates that and makes me think longs....but i won't be trading it.


----------



## Modest (15 February 2018)

Zzz only a measly 50 pt drop


----------



## PZ99 (15 February 2018)

I hope you guys didn't bet the house on that


----------



## PinguPingu (15 February 2018)

Inb4 afternoon fade, don't like the look if it can't get above 6100.


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 February 2018)

ugly price action xao/xjo, held easily at symmetry resistance......still holding sells on cac/dax and likely we need to see a retest of the swing lows for locals


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 February 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> ugly price action xao/xjo, held easily at symmetry resistance......still holding sells on cac/dax and likely we need to see a retest of the swing lows for locals




aaaand still holding them, added ftse 

.....suggest the local indexes have far more bid pressure than action suggests, 
commend against "price action" trading sp200....suggest if the o/s indexes in euro zone were on boosters we'd be flying uphill and as i type theyre in sell mode yet we tread water, US appears to be done with re-setting it's ongoing uptrend
....retail is clearly biased to sell xjo cfd, maybe not so much the deep pockets who'er on the global hunt for stock bargains against probability of inflation-driven rate rises ......hoonoze.. i dont know how to make a horse i just ride em!

giddyup


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 February 2018)

the XSO, as a high beta, is up again today, a leading edge for locals

cfd retail:


----------



## Joules MM1 (20 February 2018)

as price gets higher on a longtail day cash close more and more retailers are "opening the bargain short"

yup


----------



## Modest (20 February 2018)

ASX200 - Pump it! 6,000 show me the money


----------



## Modest (20 February 2018)

Alright let's see if she can do it. ASX200 must hold above 5,900 for 6,000 to be valid target.

sweating.gif


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (21 February 2018)

6828 Nov2007

What an  asset class, nowhere for over 10yrs


----------



## Modest (21 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Alright let's see if she can do it. ASX200 must hold above 5,900 for 6,000 to be valid target.
> 
> sweating.gif




Come to Pepe!




Better tighten the leash some more just in case


----------



## InsvestoBoy (21 February 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> 6828 Nov2007
> 
> What an  asset class, nowhere for over 10yrs




Why do you keep harping on about this? Valuations dictate returns in the long term, in Nov 2007 the market was very overvalued. So the long term return is low.

Other markets, especially US, have outperformed only by going from overvalued in 2007 to hypervalued today.

What was the return of the US market from 1999 to 2009? What was the return of the Japanese market from 1990 to 2000?

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."


----------



## Modest (22 February 2018)

Modest said:


> Come to Pepe!


----------



## Modest (22 February 2018)

The *random* walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock *market* prices evolve according to a *random* walk (so price changes are *random*) and thus cannot be predicted. It is consistent with the efficient-*market* hypothesis.
*Random walk hypothesis - Wikipedia*



Modest said:


> Tuesday at 1:36 PM
> ASX200 - Pump it! *6,000* show me the money


----------



## Joules MM1 (23 February 2018)

6k xjo has probably lost resistance, it's been run around so many times as to have little meaning other than a cheap supply zone, bid is constructive, trendy is as trendy does


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 March 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Why do you keep harping on about this? Valuations dictate returns in the long term, in Nov 2007 the market was very overvalued. So the long term return is low.
> 
> Other markets, especially US, have outperformed only by going from overvalued in 2007 to hypervalued today.
> 
> ...



Why not? That's how the market has performed, poorly


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 March 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Why not? That's how the market has performed, poorly




the market has performed exactly how the aussie cycle has permitted and in no other way can it perform, thus, the common diatribe of poor performance lays with the editor of that idea and i suggest highlights a limited series of avenues that that person has at hand, in other words, if youre a limited trader/investor, limited in your knowledge, then the market is limited to you, providing you with more risk and less opportunity......the poor performance is never with the market, markets cannot perform poorly, only you as a participant ....


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (1 March 2018)

Does it take another 5, 10, 15yrs to move to new highs


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 March 2018)

the money that matters looks like theyre in bid mode


----------



## Logique (3 March 2018)

Bluescope Steel share price went ..up? 

I don't follow it, but expected the prospect of a US tariff wall would have the opposite effect!


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 March 2018)

Bit of a mixed start to the week. Some up some down. Feely feely, up is the only way to go.


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 March 2018)

is todays swing south the last day in this up-phase to get an etf bargain ?
today we can call a (Gary) Cohn job, he quit the protectionist shtick...despite that the markets want to head north


----------



## notting (7 March 2018)

Cohen leaving is a big deal because he is seen as the guy holding the financials of the US together!!
These people resigning are hardly patriotic.  If Trump is nuts they should stay and try to hold it together as much as they can.
The only reason they should resign is if Trump is about to be taken down and they don't want to be seen as part of the mess in their resume!


----------



## Joules MM1 (7 March 2018)

i guess on a strong downer like today it's easy to see i'm over keen longside spesh since eurozone indexes and US indexes appear to be in distribution mode, but, if commods kick off we should too regardless of those markets and thus far plenty of signals that commods have been in bid mode for a few weeks

2c guess


----------



## SuperGlue (7 March 2018)

Dow futures down 300 points currently.

Hoping it doesn't rub onto XAO.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 March 2018)

SuperGlue said:


> Dow futures down 300 points currently.
> 
> Hoping it doesn't rub onto XAO.



I hope it all goes to crap. I'm mostly in Cash.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (7 March 2018)

Bull market for equities isn't it?

No wonder people pile  into other assets


----------



## PinguPingu (7 March 2018)

With Cohen gone we are on the way to a great big yuuge trade war. That is not great for equities.


----------



## Joules MM1 (8 March 2018)

done Cohnsolidating ? (thankyou for the cheap pun and the cheap supply!)


----------



## notting (8 March 2018)

It amazes me that people don't think we've been in a trade war for about 50 years with China doing all the attacking.  What more could they have done?


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 March 2018)

notting said:


> It amazes me that people don't think we've been in a trade war for about 50 years with China doing all the attacking.  What more could they have done?



Australia running a trade surplus most of the time so trade wars, probably not.


----------



## notting (8 March 2018)

Australia is almost irrelevant and given we are the provider of raw materials and uncontaminated food to a country that has very little of those two essential products, it's completely the wrong thing you should be looking at.
Crown Casino would be a better example!


----------



## Wysiwyg (8 March 2018)

notting said:


> Crown Casino would be a better example!



I will be there in June this year and we will be blowing thousands. Helping to fund the saboteurs infiltrating Australian society.


----------



## notting (8 March 2018)

Amazing.
I'm talking about this - Crown's share of Melco's annual net profit plummeted by two-thirds in 2016 to $43 million following a corruption crackdown by Chinese authorities.
Where half the staff were arrested, locked and tormented in Jails until Packer offloaded his share to a Chinese c(nt for half the value it was trading at 6 months before.
Going there?


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 March 2018)

"persistent rise" time ?

dont sell just cos its easy to sell, just sayin!


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 March 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Australia running a trade surplus most of the time so trade wars, probably not.



It's not so much about trade with China but about China competing, often unfairly, in other overseas markets and our domestic market.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (9 March 2018)

Amazingly positive news out of NK - halt to nuclear testing.  Good win for the Trump camp if he completes a successful meeting.


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 March 2018)

persistently rising 

..honkers back on the bid, US indexes still appear in distribution mode to me with new altime highs to complete a rotation
.....sp200 cfd overnight very bullish opening 6033's cash high 6026's after prev cash close 5963's


----------



## greggles (13 March 2018)

12 month XAO review just before market open. Set for another down day after a fall on US markets overnight. Probably won't slip too far today though.


----------



## Joules MM1 (13 March 2018)

greggles said:


> 12 month XAO review just before market open. Set for another down day after a fall on US markets overnight. Probably won't slip too far today though.
> 
> View attachment 86576



with the offer today
sp200 cfd opened at 62% retail longs and after the post-cash sell last night pretty clear that psycho swing meant i was going to be wrong side of the liquidity game today ....right now, retails are 71% long 

looks like we're on our way to retest daily lows 5922-5800's

the dax/cac/uk 144 cycles have held those indexes down after impulsive sells and despite the bully moves in the $spx, since the big 11%+ swing south, they've not followed thru upside so that suggests they need to explore lower too


----------



## Joules MM1 (14 March 2018)

accumulators stepped in and bids holding up the sell play at 5922's xjo, a rotation back north would be a pretty bullish play

$dax on the sell overnight with $cac/uk100 ......


----------



## Joules MM1 (14 March 2018)

a late late rally xao/xjo ?

......giddyyup


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 March 2018)

Probably back to 1000 pts off 2007 high

Growth assets!


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 March 2018)

sp200 cfd front month connie just went 67% retail longs at HOD

http://www.cboe.com/trading-resources/cboe-expiration-holiday-calendars
ops exp today too .....

tic toc


----------



## cynic (16 March 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> sp200 cfd front month connie just went 67% retail longs at HOD
> 
> http://www.cboe.com/trading-resources/cboe-expiration-holiday-calendars
> ops exp today too .....
> ...





"By the pricking of my thumbs something...."


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 March 2018)

bully rotation xao/xjo ....rare swing if retakes HOD before the 10m single price closes


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 March 2018)

cynic said:


> "By the pricking of my thumbs something...."





ruh ?


----------



## Modest (16 March 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> sp200 cfd front month connie just went 67% retail longs at HOD
> 
> http://www.cboe.com/trading-resources/cboe-expiration-holiday-calendars
> ops exp today too .....
> ...


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 March 2018)

XAO knocked down after a promising open.


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 March 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> XAO knocked down after a promising open.




a nice squeez at the low, no generic indicia for that one !

#stillgiddyup


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 March 2018)

a close above todays HOD after a swing thru the LOD will set up a confirmation signal if a H/H close prints tomorrow (both indexes) ...anyways, i see more bid liquidity than sell-side, bidders chasing supply


----------



## Modest (19 March 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> a nice squeez at the low, no generic indicia for that one !
> 
> #stillgiddyup



 

#today


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 March 2018)

does he take everything on the chin cos it looks pretty swollen


----------



## Joules MM1 (19 March 2018)

we were looking pretty good for a confirmation day, but nah, Doctors Bob sez fridays high remains unchallenged


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (22 March 2018)

Almost thru the first quarter of year, still struggling , 900 points of gfc high


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 March 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Almost thru the first quarter of year, still struggling , 900 points of gfc high




timing


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 March 2018)

Oops off down again

Traders would of positioned themselves yesterday

Growth assets?


----------



## Joules MM1 (23 March 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Oops off down again
> 
> Traders would of positioned themselves yesterday
> 
> Growth assets?




investors position, traders bet


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 March 2018)

cool


----------



## Joules MM1 (23 March 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> cool




in the meantime, test your skills (timing, sizing, positioning)
https://game.asx.com.au/game/play/public/2018-1/portfolio

some of those players have access to great live data and some dont can you tell which ones do and which dont? neither can i!

get into it


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (24 March 2018)

oh boy, 100point drop yesterday

monday not shaping up well


----------



## notting (24 March 2018)

You had a lunatic president who could do and say anything because he was giving a great big tax cut to everyone. 
Parties over. 
You now just have a lunatic doing crazies all over the world with a room full of nut jobs that are just as nuts or  compliant.
And whilst high on that Cool Aid, everyone with a phone gave their personal info to a guy who was asked, in good faith, to help with programing for a 'start up' this guy goes uses the access given to him to steal the fricken company and hands your data to Vladimir. 
Worlds in great shape!


----------



## kid hustlr (25 March 2018)

The divergence between the small caps and big caps has been a consistent theme for many months (after years of it going the other way).

I'm not sure what to make of it.

If it were on the back of a huge run up I would be worried, but it appears to be more just rotation out of the bigs and into the smalls. On any other days I'd say that's positive.

Technically XSO doesn't look that bad!


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 March 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> The divergence between the small caps and big caps has been a consistent theme for many months (after years of it going the other way).
> 
> I'm not sure what to make of it.
> 
> ...




agree, tends to back the idea we're on a last-gasp shake-out, $xso has been very positive
honkers looks very bullish too


----------



## Joules MM1 (26 March 2018)

relatively quiet A-vix https://au.investing.com/indices/s-p-asx-200-vix


----------



## Joules MM1 (27 March 2018)

$es/$spx looks like it will compress in a range to get the next leg up, $xjo today saw retail cfd at 72% long, now printing 68% long ...off a messy low ....we should revisit the low while the index builds a base ...2c guess


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 March 2018)

Saw significant selling into todays bounce and notably so at 4.10.


----------



## MrChow (27 March 2018)

Still think the bull market is on.

If you look at bear markets they occur when the U.S Fed Rate exceeds 10 year bond yields (inverted curve) and on current projections that doesn't look like happening for another 18 months plus.


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 March 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Saw significant selling into todays bounce and notably so at 4.10.



xjo -45 and retail cfd longs still printing 62%


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 March 2018)

as per @Modest


----------



## Modest (28 March 2018)

ASX 200 - From a quick eyeball of the chart, 5,500 looks like a decent target - thoughts?


----------



## Joules MM1 (28 March 2018)

Modest said:


> ASX 200 - From a quick eyeball of the chart, 5,500 looks like a decent target - thoughts?



put a tenna on 5590


----------



## Modest (28 March 2018)

Haha you’re on


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 March 2018)

Modest said:


> ASX 200 - From a quick eyeball of the chart, 5,500 looks like a decent target - thoughts?




toot toot
as the train was leaving the station Harry and his pals bought the dip


----------



## Modest (29 March 2018)




----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 March 2018)

Worst March since GFC, 

Growth assets,


----------



## Wysiwyg (29 March 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Worst March since GFC,
> 
> Growth assets,



New support levels to be established then?


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 March 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Worst March since GFC,
> 
> Growth assets,




does that equal greater bargains ?

is the glass half technically full or empty?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 March 2018)

who knows, gone nowhere for over 10 years


----------



## willy1111 (1 April 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> who knows, gone nowhere for over 10 years



It is also a fact that it is up 80% (+ divies) in 9 years


----------



## PinguPingu (1 April 2018)

Modest said:


>





Lmao, we need a Sminem for the ASX.


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 April 2018)

retail longs go from 72% long at open to 55% when xjo cash retakes the open HOD

psycho swing in action


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 April 2018)

..almost ....#boxes #xjo #symmetry #cash


a simple ABC completed ...where A=C ?


----------



## Joules MM1 (3 April 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Trend lines going back 5 and 10 years on the weekly and monthly XAO indicate the next buying opportunity is at 5250.
> 
> I dare not predict the future. Careful stops on stocks at 5250 of the XAO may protect you from a wipeout as the next buying opportunity is at 4250.
> 
> ...




so long as youre not glued to those levels ....afterall with or without a channel or trendline theyre nothing more than  levels of permission and risk


----------



## Modest (3 April 2018)

Modest said:


> ...5,500 looks like a decent target....


----------



## Modest (4 April 2018)

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 April 2018)

waiter, i'd like another plate of that "inexorable rise" please


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 April 2018)

two lower lows got bought in the front month sp200 contract 
honkers had a solid rotation and spx/dax appear to have printed lows, $spx appears to be in distribution mode (to a new high?)


----------



## MrChow (5 April 2018)

There will always be scare factors that appear from time to time (in this case trade wars) but the only thing that stops a bull market is a bear market and that requires near-term earnings declines.  That typically doesn't happen until interest rates reach a significantly higher level than we are now.


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 April 2018)

MrChow said:


> There will always be scare factors that appear from time to time (in this case trade wars) but the only thing that stops a bull market is a bear market and that requires near-term earnings declines.  That typically doesn't happen until interest rates reach a significantly higher level than we are now.




even then, how high is "significantly" ?
can a bull rage for many years on lifting rates?
does the rate force trend or does the trend force the rate?
what is the function that causes rates to lift and and trends to change, as they maybe (i say) the same driver and if they are (inverse correlation is not necessarily causation) they are mirrors of the same manic buy mode or same manic sell mode but not a mechanical function, rather, a representation of growing extremes where the growth itself (and contraction) are a function of value?
to inspect that function  for trade how can it be done in foresight?


----------



## Modest (5 April 2018)

I'm smacking it short again at 5,815 - 20s

EDIT: If it holds 5,750s on return I will be a happy buyer targeting 5,900


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 April 2018)

....."oh, reaaaalllyyyyyy"


----------



## Modest (5 April 2018)

Smacked it 5,815ish


----------



## Modest (5 April 2018)




----------



## Joules MM1 (5 April 2018)

not much liquidity whipping until tomoz NFP's baddaboom ?

10:30pm CAD
Employment Change
18.8K 15.4K
CAD
Unemployment Rate
5.8% 5.8%
USD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.3% 0.1%
USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
190K 313K
USD
Unemployment Rate
4.0% 4.1%


----------



## Modest (6 April 2018)

Damn nice gap down from 5815 - 20. Taken half off at open at gap, let’s see if it can touch 750


----------



## Joules MM1 (6 April 2018)

when ya feel a little rip, go n buy the dip ......have no feah ....something something something


----------



## MrChow (6 April 2018)

Just my opinion but I believe there is very little chance any of these tariffs get implemented as the US will eventually agree to go to the WTO as China is asking to settle the intellectual property issues.

Once that happens it'll be back to the fundamentals of the current economic trend of improving growth for the next 18 months or so.

As far as how much leeway there is to rise interest rates my model requires about a further 1.5% (for a yield inversion which has signified every turning point in the economy for the past 50 years) so 6 hikes from the US Fed which would take us to late 2019 or early 2020.


----------



## Modest (6 April 2018)

Modest said:


> Damn nice gap down from 5815 - 20. Taken half off at open at gap, let’s see if it can touch 750



Still holding half for lower prices (green line) going into the big US News


----------



## Joules MM1 (6 April 2018)

bids are in


----------



## Modest (6 April 2018)

Homo bidders shuuu


----------



## Modest (7 April 2018)

Modest said:


>







Homo bidders gettin rolled


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 April 2018)

MrChow said:


> the only thing that stops a bull market is a bear market and that requires near-term earnings declines.




That's demonstrably wrong.

In 1973-1974 the S&P 500 lost ~50% while EPS grew by >50%.

In October 1987 many global markets were completely eviscerated with no earnings decline.


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 April 2018)

Shot a wee bit past the gap closure just to cough up any stops above the gap. Anyone else for second guessing the market?


----------



## tinhat (8 April 2018)

This discussion is becoming a tad immature IMHO. I don't think adding homophobic stereotypes adds anything to the discussion.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (8 April 2018)

if you had $10,000.00 in XAO still be worth $10,000.00 today

such a poor performance,


----------



## willy1111 (8 April 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> if you had $10,000.00 in XAO still be worth $10,000.00 today
> 
> such a poor performance,



Not if you put it in 1st March 2009, be worth $18k + dividends.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (8 April 2018)

you do that willy?


----------



## tinhat (8 April 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> if you had $10,000.00 in XAO still be worth $10,000.00 today
> 
> such a poor performance,




What is the argument you are wanting to make here?

I earn income from residential property and that income is pitiful. I help support my entire family (two generations) from investments in the stock market. We are not young.

I am happy to pay tax. 

Most of my family are refugees.

This land belongs to the Aboriginal people from which we stole it.

I earn enough money from the stock market to fill my gob with food.

Look at the yield ad the pay out ratio of the majors.

Do your own research.

Live long then die.


----------



## greggles (9 April 2018)

Facing another down day today. Are we heading back to 5700 this week?


----------



## Joules MM1 (9 April 2018)

greggles said:


> Facing another down day today. Are we heading back to 5700 this week?
> 
> View attachment 86905




...bids are in


----------



## Modest (9 April 2018)

750 held - targeting 5,900 now

Bring on the homosapian bidders!


----------



## Modest (10 April 2018)

Modest said:


> 750 held - targeting 5,900 now


----------



## notting (10 April 2018)

Xi insults Trump.
Gives a big, long awaited, Dim Sim Davos speach, doesn't even mention the 'trade war,' or even 'tarrifs'.  In other words, 'America, your irrelevant.' We will just continue to do whatever we want.
ASX goes Booooooom

Perhaps we are following China, not the DOW these days.


----------



## notting (10 April 2018)

Modest said:


> Homo bidders gettin rolled





Really? Looks more like they got made.


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 April 2018)

#PPPi


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 April 2018)

and


----------



## greggles (11 April 2018)

DJIA up 428 points, XAO down 14 points. What's going on here?


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 April 2018)

greggles said:


> DJIA up 428 points, XAO down 14 points. What's going on here?




xao/xjo breathing while the overnight futes are off ....$spx cash closed 55's currently printing 42's (cash implied equiv)


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 April 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> ...bids are in




still

true story


----------



## Joules MM1 (11 April 2018)

greggles said:


> DJIA up 428 points, XAO down 14 points. What's going on here?


----------



## notting (11 April 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> View attachment 86940




I think we're turning Chinese
I think we're turning Chinese
I really think so.......


----------



## InsvestoBoy (12 April 2018)

greggles said:


> DJIA up 428 points, XAO down 14 points. What's going on here?






Joules MM1 said:


> xao/xjo breathing while the overnight futes are off ....$spx cash closed 55's currently printing 42's (cash implied equiv)




Huh?

Isn't the correct answer a lot simpler?

Firstly, DJIA is a very concentrated, price weighted index 30 of the largest companies in the world. XAO is a much broader, market cap weighted index of 500 ASX listed companies that even the largest of are comparatively tiny.

So what moves one is not necessarily going to move the other.

Secondly, you're comparing a USD priced index vs AUD one, using points instead of %. Of course the relative performance will seem skewed through that lens.

So in reality, the DJIA was up 1.79% close on close and EWA (the NYSE listed iShares Australia ETF which tracks MSCI Australia index), was up an *unsurprising* 1.81% in the same session.


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 April 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Huh?
> 
> Isn't the correct answer a lot simpler?
> 
> ...




lol, the second post in reply is only to show leadership and not about % as an absolute, % are taken from a single focal point and do not allow for fx n such

you quite correct ....in isolation..

all indexes either lead or lag simply because there is more than one, indexes are an expression of expansion or contraction


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 April 2018)

raided the low, bids are in ....bots couldnt kill the jo5800?


----------



## Joules MM1 (12 April 2018)

news that fits a trend: $5BB AUD to fit railway for Melbourne - Tullermarine

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...n-for-melbourne-airport-rail-link?CMP=soc_568


----------



## notting (14 April 2018)

10B as the state has agreed to match it after  winning an election saying they would can it.


----------



## MrChow (20 April 2018)

Research the US market since 1900 - there's a 35% chance you didn't beat inflation (even including dividends) if you invested for any given 10 year period.

With a flat XAO since 2008 - the market still beat inflation due to dividends.

If the US Market mirrors the XAO that means there's a 1 in 3 chance the next decade will be worse.


----------



## greggles (23 April 2018)

The XAO has been on a nice uptrend for the last few weeks. Will it continue this week or are we headed back down? 6000 seems elusive.


----------



## MrChow (29 April 2018)

I'm very bullish for the next 12-18 months as the end of cycles tend to increase in velocity if anything.


----------



## gartley (3 May 2018)

MrChow said:


> I'm very bullish for the next 12-18 months as the end of cycles tend to increase in velocity if anything.




Not sure about ASX for next 12 months but other world indices look like they ready to break down quite heavily from here. We should know by next week if SP500 and DJIA break up or down from current triangle patterns. My 2c worth: down as long term cycles pointed very hard down.

In the short to medium term ASX200 has more than a number of very important Fibonacci and Lucas timing points coming together today. This may only be a "stall" to the good uptrend we have had for the last number of weeks, but it also might be something more significant. ASX200 has diverged from other world indices last 2 weeks. Either it will turn down and join them or they will join the ASX  to the upside sooner or later.

Either way, it's gonna be a very crucial juncture the next few weeks.

https://invst.ly/7cec7


----------



## InsvestoBoy (10 May 2018)

I sold *a lot* of my stock holdings today. Now sitting on less than $5000 in equities.

Will consider buying back when more attractive long term valuations present themselves.


----------



## Modest (11 May 2018)

Just entered Shorted ASX200 at 6122 Target 6020ish into US Open. Tight leash on this one


----------



## Modest (11 May 2018)

The hoop is the target


----------



## Modest (15 May 2018)

Just do it already!


----------



## Modest (16 May 2018)

She's slowly tipping over, getting bit heavy. Here is the line that needs to hold (red)- if it can hold should be the final kick in the bidders guts before a puke to my 6020ish target


----------



## greggles (17 May 2018)

Nice run up from 5,840 to 6,250 over the last six weeks but it's starting to look like a double top formation to me. We're heading down today so it looks like the XAO might have run out of juice for now.


----------



## CanOz (17 May 2018)

Unemployment rate due out today....


----------



## greggles (17 May 2018)

CanOz said:


> Unemployment rate due out today....



Unemployment rate steady at 5.5% and labour force participation at its highest since 1978. XAO not showing much of a reaction to the news.

https://au.investing.com/news/econo...-labour-force-participation-continues-1135179


----------



## Modest (18 May 2018)

Modest said:


> She's slowly tipping over, getting bit heavy. Here is the line that needs to hold (red)- if it can hold should be the final kick in the bidders guts before a puke to my 6020ish target




Held like an absolute rock:


----------



## Modest (18 May 2018)




----------



## CanOz (19 May 2018)

What a grind modest, what's this? Day five? Well done. At least the spi trades almost 22 hours a day?


----------



## Modest (19 May 2018)

CanOz said:


> What a grind modest, what's this? Day five? Well done. At least the spi trades almost 22 hours a day?




Swinger lifestyle mate patience is the key! Sometimes it happens right away other times it just takes longer and you just keep on reloading short 

So far we're still in very good shape for my TP


----------



## Sharkman (19 May 2018)

Modest said:


> Just entered Shorted ASX200 at 6122 Target 6020ish into US Open. Tight leash on this one




i thought the same thing. looks like it bumped up against the previous Jan peak of 6135 on the 14th, and that level got rejected with an ugly bearish candle on the 15th. i went for some Jun 6100-6200 bear call spreads on the XJO near the close on the 15th and bought the same number of Jun 5900 puts, taking in ~$200/contract. if it gets to 6000 i'll definitely think about closing out at least the bear call spread, may let the puts run a bit longer.

i haven't been trading index options for very long so i don't quite know the nuances of it vs stock options, but on the surface there appears to be some pretty nasty delta skew, the 6100 calls (ATM at the time of the trade) were trading at a 9 IV but the 5900 puts (about 20 delta) were at a ~12.5 IV. not sure if that sort of hefty risk reversal is par for the course when it comes to XJO options or not, but it would seem to indicate that the market is expecting some sort of a fall and bidding up the price of OTM puts.


----------



## Modest (22 May 2018)

Modest said:


> The hoop is the target




Who says you can’t pick tops and bottoms?


----------



## PinguPingu (22 May 2018)

Bloody noice m8. Although I do hope for my long term momo's this is the extent of the pullback.


----------



## greggles (23 May 2018)

XAO YTD 2018 candlestick chart.

XAO can't crack 6250 and is turning down again. First try was in early January and second failure was mid-May. Dow futures turning red. Trump-Kim meeting looking doubtful. Market seems to be taking another bearish turn.

Are we headed back to 5,800?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 May 2018)

share market gone nowhere for 11yrs, house prices going down, credit getting harder to get

not a good outlook for aussie investors locally


----------



## greggles (23 May 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> share market gone nowhere for 11yrs




Here's a monthly chart from 1 January 2005. We need another 2005-2007 again. 2008 blew a lot of punters out of the market. Hasn't quite been the same since then. Property has stolen the limelight.


----------



## CanOz (23 May 2018)

Looks like a bull trend to me....


----------



## greggles (23 May 2018)

CanOz said:


> Looks like a bull trend to me....



Agree. I expressed myself a little poorly in that last post.

When I said:


greggles said:


> 2008 blew a lot of punters out of the market. Hasn't quite been the same since then. Property has stolen the limelight.




I meant the way Australians invest. The GFC gave the average punter a fear of financial markets. Then real estate really started to take off and people put their investment dollars into residential property. Interest in the stock market waned. Markets have gone up in the last ten years but there are a lot less retail punters involved, at least directly. Everyone's mortgaged to the hilt. We need another 2005 to 2007 to re-ignite an interest in financial markets again and get the younger generations interested in it.


----------



## Craton (23 May 2018)

Totally agree greggles. The GFC is still tasting sore and adding more fuel to the dislike of anything financial is what's come to light thanks to the Big 4, AMP, etc.

I also agree that financial education of the younger set is vital for the future prosperity of not only Australians but Australia. Living on the such high levels of debt will never end well. Especially with no fall back if the older set, like me, are learning to S.K.I. (Spending the Kids Inheritance). 

Seriously though, from the feedback I get the younger ones think that the stock market is all about SP and other nefarious financial instruments. They also don't realize that investing can also create an additional source of income (and any associated tax input credit) via dividends. 
That raises a few eyebrows and one can see the cogs turning.

Thinking about this a little more I'd suggest too that with compulsory super included in most pay packets, the mindset is that the super fund is investing into the stock market, albeit indirectly for them anyways.


----------



## Sharkman (24 May 2018)

still maintaining 6100-6200 bear call spread + long 5900 puts. i'm no expert technician, but being in the traditionally weak may-june period as we are, and with the banks under the cosh (CBA testing and potentially breaking key support at $70) IMHO it's entirely possible the XJO drops to 5900 in the next few weeks (200 day EMA, midpoint of the last upward move from the start of apr to mid-may, more or less).

if the market gives me an opening to close out the bear call spread for around $200/contract i'll probably take it (the spread was around $270 today so another moderate fall plus a bit of decay should do it), which will leave the long 5900 puts on my books effectively for free.

main reason i did this 3 legged structure is that i've found mentally it's much easier to let long options run for a bit more once they're essentially on the books for free (the "playing with house money" school of thought), whereas if i've paid net premium i tend to get freaked out by theta as it nears the final week or two til expiry, and all too often i've found myself closing out long gamma positions right before the underlying makes its big move just to "stop paying this crazy decay".


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (25 May 2018)

most economists pushing out interest rate rise to 2020 now, no hope with that

petrol up to 1.55lt/91 ULP probably 1.70lt/98 ULP so cant see much to raise company profits


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 May 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> most economists pushing out interest rate rise to 2020 now, no hope with that
> 
> petrol up to 1.55lt/91 ULP probably 1.70lt/98 ULP so cant see much to raise company profits




always look forward to your posts .......try the bus


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 May 2018)

https://www.stockspot.com.au/what-are-etfs/etfs-compared/#spots-evaluation

for the best dressed woulda coulda shoulda crowd


----------



## Sharkman (30 May 2018)

closed out the 6100-6200 bear call spread for $110/contract on today's moderate fall

still think that the downward move has a bit further to go, the apr-may rally has been well and truly rejected at the 6135 level of the prior peak, but don't see much point in keeping the bear call spread on when it can be bought back for about a quarter of the original premium collected ($450 taken in on the bear call spread, $240 paid for the 5900 puts so about $200 for the original structure incl brokerage)

starting to think about switching out the long 5900 puts for a 6000-5900 bear put spread, which could've actually been done for a small credit when i checked the market today (buy 6000 puts @ 700, sell 2x 5900 puts @ 360 each), as the 5900 level is really what i'm targeting (200 day EMA, rough midpoint of last rally) so as Jun expiry creeps closer, probably that's the level where the short strike needs to be


----------



## InsvestoBoy (5 June 2018)

What’s going on with VAP today? Down nearly 6.5% while SLF is only down 1.3%?


----------



## greggles (6 July 2018)

US markets up overnight in spite of the looming international trade war. Should be an interesting day on the ASX.


----------



## tinhat (11 July 2018)

Dr Copper is pulling back on its outlook for the world economy. Copper price has broken down to below the 50 week moving average. Is this ending the bull run which began at the beginning of 2016?T

The risk for the US S&P500 and the Aussie market has to be weighted towards the downside tight now.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 July 2018)

At an interesting point for the market, commodities rallied well over past 12mths, 

Banks climbing a bit with the RC over for banks, APRA says no more action, property down down down

Maybe stocks going to have a run up to 6600-6800, funds are believing the economy is going take off


----------



## greggles (23 July 2018)

XAO still looking bullish. Double top at 6,390 or break above 6,400? Interesting times.


----------



## CanOz (23 July 2018)

Spike and channel with 3 drives to the high.....getting too long


----------



## notting (23 July 2018)

It's time people


----------



## greggles (7 September 2018)

XAO pulling back from its high of 6,481 over the last week or so. Currently at 6,236. Where will it find support?


----------



## kid hustlr (7 September 2018)

I would think Long SPI 6100 for a bounce is pretty damn tempting here.


----------



## CanOz (7 September 2018)

Nice call, hope you got on it!


----------



## greggles (7 September 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> I would think Long SPI 6100 for a bounce is pretty damn tempting here.


----------



## kid hustlr (7 September 2018)

CanOz said:


> Nice call, hope you got on it!




- Not my game to trade that - just happened to see it there and figured it looked OK
- Think I would have been stopped out at B/E anyway as it took a long time to go


----------



## peter2 (7 September 2018)

Nice, classic reversal near the low of day. Both initial intra-day targets hit. 
Friday evening drinks courtesy of the kid. 


_Note: No I didn't trade it.   It's a great pattern._


----------



## kid hustlr (7 September 2018)

peter2 said:


> Nice, classic reversal near the low of day. Both initial intra-day targets hit.
> Friday evening drinks courtesy of the kid.
> View attachment 89210
> 
> _Note: No I didn't trade it.   It's a great pattern._




The spike new low that reversed was the entry I was initially talking about. No drinks tonight I'll need to explain to the wife that Awesome August is long gone!


----------



## MrChow (1 October 2018)

While the Yield Curve is still positive the percentage play is to stay invested.

But the setup for the 2020s is ugly based on historical valuation metrics.  I would personally accept a -40% hit to stocks (would only be a 700 point XAO drop from 2016 low) as a good result as there is downside for worse if banks get in trouble.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (22 October 2018)

back at just over 6000. country that cant move on

by all accounts business conditions are improving,


----------



## Logique (24 October 2018)

Be careful.







> Markets U.S. & Canada  By: Shawn Langlois
> The [US] *stock market faces ‘unlimited downside risk,’ warns veteran trader*
> Published: Oct 23, 2018
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...downside-risk-warns-veteran-trader-2018-10-23
> ..“There is unlimited downside risk in the market right now and I don’t think it’s being respected,” he wrote. “It’s not until afterwards that they ask, ‘what happened?’”..


----------



## notting (24 October 2018)

Kind of agree, buying this open


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (25 October 2018)

Doesn't go up with global exchanges but heads down easy as

Very poor performance for shares over past 10-11yrs. Back under 6000, still long way off high


----------



## notting (25 October 2018)




----------



## MrChow (26 October 2018)

Nothing scary on the horizon looks pretty safe for another 12 months, especially if Trump adds more stimulus through individual tax cuts.


----------



## notting (27 October 2018)

Yeah unless the market is wising up to the fact that the 4% GDP growth did not even dent the tax income losses for government and debt is going through the roof, in fact it the deficit expanded by 9%. More tax cuts will have them heading for bankruptcy.

This is like an indebted person who's low wage cannot cover his living expenses as it is, who convinced a predatory bank exec to give him a $100,000 credit card which he is now using on a round the world trip, living it up and thinking he's rich cause he's having a great time!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (13 November 2018)

be interesting to see the predictions for the XAO from posters, month and half to go in 2018

sure the xao will climb a bit, very average time for investors with the big whinge thats happening in the community


----------



## PZ99 (13 November 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> be interesting to see the predictions for the XAO from posters, month and half to go in 2018
> 
> sure the xao will climb a bit, very average time for investors with the big whinge thats happening in the community




I predicted 6100 fwiw... probably need a santa rally to get there 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/969384/


----------



## PZ99 (21 November 2018)

This was uploaded last year when the markets were higher than today 

Interesting stuff about the ETF's at the end of the video.


----------



## Logique (21 November 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> be interesting to see the *predictions for the XAO from posters*, month and half to go in 2018
> sure the xao will climb a bit, very average time for investors with the big whinge thats happening in the community



Visit: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/all-ords-went-nowhere-for-7-years.24058/page-15


----------



## notting (23 November 2018)

Unbelievable how much more appropriately our market behaves when the Yanks are stuffing their faces with turkey instead of screwing with it!!!


----------



## notting (27 November 2018)

Now they seem to by trying to catch up!
Good day for the Ausi battlers!


----------



## MrChow (29 November 2018)

Personally liking the chances of a big Santa Rally from mid-December and through to Feb back to previous highs.

Not seeing any deterioration in jobs figures in the short term.


----------



## MrChow (30 November 2018)

Here's a metric that give me confidence - the history of inversion of the 10 year bond yield - 3 month bond yield in the US and when the US market reaches it's cycle peak.

When the 10 year - 3 month yield becomes negative the US peak occurs (since 1960):

1 Quarter Before - 2 times
Same Quarter - 3 times
1 Quarter After - 1 time
4 Quarters After - 2 times

So basically there is a +60 point spread between the 10 year and 3 month at the moment and it is not anticipated that the Fed will hike more than 60 points (to create a negative spread) until 2019 Q2 or Q3.

This means for this cycle peak to have come and gone in October it would have had to occur 2 or 3 Quarters before the inversion which has never happened in over 60 years.  So even if a peak occurs at the earliest point of this sample of 1 Quarter before inversion it'd mean the cycle peaking in 2019 Q1 or Q2.

Plus seasonality stats are very strong for rallies between December-April.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 December 2018)

Just a bit of useless banter, but is it only me who has noticed over the last 5 or 6 trading sessions that every time the XJO gets above 5730 then some determined selling seems to come back in?

This is an hourly chart of the 24h CFD market for XJO...



Kind of seems like a line in the sand which price will need to conclusively win for bulls to succeed.


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 December 2018)

There has been determined selling in general for a naggingly persistent time. On the positive side it's times like these we get to test our skills at locating gems that have been discarded. ASX is a dividend investors smorgasbord.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 December 2018)

Average situation for investors still  

Probably thousand points off pre-gfc high

Are aus businesses that much of a basket case? Or do share investors need a 50yr time frame?


----------



## willy1111 (4 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Average situation for investors still
> 
> Probably thousand points off pre-gfc high
> 
> Are aus businesses that much of a basket case? Or do share investors need a 50yr time frame?




Shares do pay dividends though - so when we look at a chart of the All Ords Accumulation Index - it is 40 odd percent higher than the GFC highs.


----------



## willy1111 (4 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> Shares do pay dividends though - so when we look at a chart of the All Ords Accumulation Index - it is 40 odd percent higher than the GFC highs.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Interesting @Toyota Lexcen to zoom in on the All Ords Accumulation chart above from 1986 to 1996 - From the 1987 chart peak of around 6,500 after roughly 10 years to 1996 it was a similar 40 odd per cent higher as from 2007 GFC Peak to nowish.  And then from 1996 to now, an increase of roughly 900 odd percent, including the run up to the GFC and subsequent 50% fall.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (5 December 2018)

That is dividend reinvestment?

Only decent if dividends reinvested.


----------



## MrChow (7 December 2018)

Off the top of my head:

Stocks lose to Bonds about 25% of the time over a 10 year period.

Stocks lose to Bonds about 3% of the time over a 20 year period.


----------



## Logique (7 December 2018)

XAO 5760,up 29 in a brave performance this morning. Seems sticky at these levels

_O, how shall summer's honey breath hold out
Against the wreckful siege of battering days,
When rocks impregnable are not so stout,
Nor gates of steel so strong, but Time decays?_
William Shakespeare


----------



## notting (7 December 2018)

Lot of mayhem in the US market last night and huge reversal.
Looked like a classic capitulation and blow off low.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 December 2018)

notting said:


> Lot of mayhem in the US market last night and huge reversal.
> Looked like a classic capitulation and blow off low.



Didn't last long sadly.

Down another 1.5% now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 December 2018)

Today's announcement at Whyalla with the steelworks expansion has a lot of relevance to the ASX generally.

How many times have we seen things like that run down and eventually close? Around Australia there would be too many instances to list.

One man from overseas has by turning Whyalla around shown that rather a lot of Australian corporate management is sadly lacking in vision and ability. At just one site he's shown countless business leaders and politicians to be lacking at best, incompetent at worst.

So it's not just broader economics or government, I think the quality of management we have in Australia and the lack of vision at least partly explains the performance of our stock market over the past decade compared to overseas markets. Too many want to go sideways or shrink, there aren't many with vision and the ability to make it happen.


----------



## sptrawler (10 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> Shares do pay dividends though - so when we look at a chart of the All Ords Accumulation Index - it is 40 odd percent higher than the GFC highs.




The problem with that is, only some pay dividends and only some companies last, a lot of charts presume you only have winners.
Imagine if your protfolio accumulated 10 years ago, included Telstra, Ten, IFL, Pan or a group of other under performing shares.


----------



## IFocus (10 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think the quality of management we have in Australia and the lack of vision at least partly explains the performance of our stock market over the past decade




Completely agree Smurf seen it 1st hand


----------



## mcgrath111 (10 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> be interesting to see the predictions for the XAO from posters, month and half to go in 2018
> 
> sure the xao will climb a bit, very average time for investors with the big whinge thats happening in the community



What big whinge?


----------



## willy1111 (10 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> The problem with that is, only some pay dividends and only some companies last, a lot of charts presume you only have winners.
> Imagine if your protfolio accumulated 10 years ago, included Telstra, Ten, IFL, Pan or a group of other under performing shares.




The chart I present is the the All Ords Index of the Australian Market adjusted for dividends.  One can very easily gain exposure to the ASX200 index via STW and exposure to the ASX300 index via VAS. The index is a mechanical trading system based on Market Cap traded quarterly - by default as a company's share prices falls, market cap falls and they go out of the index (although some go broke whilst still in the index but normally the index is so well diversified one going broke has little effect on it).  It is a classic example of the saying let your winners run and cut your losers.  The strong survive.

If one wishes to pick their own shares, then that is a real risk - picking shares that underperform the market (index) or other shares - there is also the opportunity to pick shares that outperform the market, of which there are many eg CSL, COH, ALL, REA, MFG, CTD to name a few.

The shares you mention look to have been strong dividend yield payers at one point or another.  Maybe that was the reason one may have accumulated them????  Surely you had others that went on to make many multiples of the buy price?


----------



## sptrawler (10 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> The shares you mention look to have been strong dividend yield payers at one point or another.  Maybe that was the reason one may have accumulated them????  Surely you had others that went on to make many multiples of the buy price?



That is all true, but take for example the Banks,at the moment they are on the nose.
They have been great dividend payers, but in reality, your capital could well end up back at what it was 10 years ago.
Most investors that wish to make an income from dividends, tend to hang on to ones that pay good dividends and sell ones that don't.
I guess that may be one of the reasons, LIC's and ETF's, are becoming more popular.


----------



## tinhat (10 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Today's announcement at Whyalla with the steelworks expansion has a lot of relevance to the ASX generally.
> 
> How many times have we seen things like that run down and eventually close? Around Australia there would be too many instances to list.
> 
> ...




This is a fair bit off topic, and I am just showing my ignorance here... I do wonder where the money is coming from? If this is all being financed with debt and interest rates go up and if steel prices fall (after all this business is tied to the market for an underlying commodity) things could all turn south. I just wonder about the quality of the funds being used. Is there any transparency around the financing of Gupta's business empire?


----------



## MrChow (11 December 2018)

I find the timing of this market downturn perplexing as none of the key leading indicators that predict a recession within 12 months (typically) have ticked over yet so to me this is mistimed based on news narrative.

I'm probably just repeating myself but I'm high conviction that the market will be positive for the next 6 months and would be surprised if these losses (whatever they amount to) weren't fully recovered by mid year.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 December 2018)

I must stop looking at the overseas markets.

I see red.

She goes down.

Down down deeper and down.

Unfortunately the obvious musical reference missing is the one that I want - Money for nothin'


----------



## PZ99 (11 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> I must stop looking at the overseas markets.
> 
> I see red.
> 
> ...



Multiple musical references so I guess the bands you had in mind were
Split Enz did (I see red)
Motley Crue (She goes down)
Status Quo (Down down)
and the most apt one being... Dire Straits.

10cc Wall Street Shuffle has good lyrics too


----------



## InsvestoBoy (11 December 2018)

MrChow said:


> I find the timing of this market downturn perplexing as none of the key leading indicators that predict a recession within 12 months (typically) have ticked over yet so to me this is mistimed based on news narrative.




Are you operating under the assumption that the market can only fall as it discounts a recession?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 December 2018)

Future down a far bit. Another very poor year most investors

Tax revenue up, clearly something wrong with our sharemarket


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 December 2018)

Joules MM1 you still here?


----------



## MrChow (19 December 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Are you operating under the assumption that the market can only fall as it discounts a recession?




Generally, as the most extreme example of the 1987 crash fully recovered the discounting by 1989 as there was no real world follow through.


----------



## greggles (19 December 2018)

Things aren't looking good. Last time the XAO was at these levels was exactly two years ago but it was travelling north instead of south. Support at 5,700 has been breached. With US markets looking very shaky I think we'll see 5,500 before the end of the year.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (20 December 2018)

another 70 points today.

best place in the world?


----------



## MrChow (25 December 2018)

As of this minute the US is 0.9% off a bear market.

You'd think it's in alot of people's interest to get it done with, possibly as soon as tonight, if not by end of year.

I'm super bullish on a comeback to previous highs in 2019 before we run into the real deal.


----------



## gartley (25 December 2018)

MrChow said:


> As of this minute the US is 0.9% off a bear market.
> 
> You'd think it's in alot of people's interest to get it done with, possibly as soon as tonight, if not by end of year.
> 
> I'm super bullish on a comeback to previous highs in 2019 before we run into the real deal.



Interesting on what % fall is qualified as a bear market.  At this current juncture most people's portfolios have  ripped to shreds..

Given the current fear and persistent selling, can't see a long lasting rally starting any time soon.  Downtrend will persist till Feb/March before any meaningul rally gets underway.
This is gonna be a long bear me thinks  and an excursion back to GFC lows eventually.


----------



## kid hustlr (25 December 2018)

It’s entirely possible this is the start of a bear market but I’d be interested in how one justifies the s&p back to 675?


----------



## gartley (25 December 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> It’s entirely possible this is the start of a bear market but I’d be interested in how one justifies the s&p back to 675?



This is the XAO banter thread, who said anything about SPX? As for the XAO, given the corrective looking advance off the March 2009 low that didn't make new high,  then it would be surprising to see a re test of 3050 again before the bear that started in 2007 is finally finished


----------



## MrChow (25 December 2018)

My philosophy is the timing of this pullback is not yet supported by fundamental deterioration so I think we'll see a significant recovery that will mirror whatever the magnitude is IE. a +20% type bounce.

Yield inversion is possible in H1 2019 but that typically is around a 12 month leading indicator suggesting no recession until 2020.


----------



## kid hustlr (25 December 2018)

gartley said:


> This is the XAO banter thread, who said anything about SPX? As for the XAO, given the corrective looking advance off the March 2009 low that didn't make new high,  then it would be surprising to see a re test of 3050 again before the bear that started in 2007 is finally finished




Apologies I saw the reference to the S&P above and assumed.

I agree no new highs in the index is a concern however I wonder if the accumulation index is more appropriate given how heavy dividend paying out stocks are


----------



## cynic (25 December 2018)




----------



## gartley (25 December 2018)

I think timing the markets based on fundamentals is generally very hard.
There are not many economists with a consistent track record of timing markets or for that matter recessions until they have already started.
In fact fundamentals are quite often very good at market peaks and absolutely terrible at markets bottoms.
The market itself is the best barometer which is a reflection of mass social mood.  Fundamentals can quite often lag the market by up to 6 months but I am sure even  for the astute fundamentalists there is some writing on the wall even early on.


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 December 2018)

gartley said:


> The market itself is the best barometer which is a reflection of mass social mood.



Oh I think not. Only the people that follow the market are aware of what is even happening and they would likely act but as for the social mood, people are none the wiser and thus not a reflection. The big money pros move the market.


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 December 2018)

XAO sure to crash Thursday following U.S. markets going stupid again this morning. The desperation to exit before the public holidays was awesome. Long positions were systematically terminated. They really know how to go to extremes of buying and selling. Best be on the right side or die a thousand times.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (25 December 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Oh I think not. Only the people that follow the market are aware of what is even happening and they would likely act but as for the social mood, people are none the wiser and thus not a reflection. The big money pros move the market.




In the US, the Consumer Confidence Index - which tracks a much broader gauge of sentiment than "big money pros" or even "people that follow the market" - has a pretty strong correlation with deviations from long term fair value measures...


----------



## MrChow (25 December 2018)

Still another session overseas before the ASX opens on Thursday so a -100 point opening isn't gauranteed yet.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 December 2018)

gartley said:


> In fact fundamentals are quite often very good at market peaks and absolutely terrible at markets bottoms.



It partly depends on what you define as "fundamentals" and whether we're looking at the overall "big picture" or whether we're looking at individual shares.

I tend to focus on the US market mostly in this regard but to my thinking all the warning signs of an impending top were in place by January 2018:

Shares at a high valuation.

Fed raising interest rates.

Bond market looked to have peaked (using 10 year Treasuries as the reference)

Oil prices rising.

From a fundamental perspective that all looks like a warning sign to me. It won't tell you the precise timing of the top, and *it's possible we haven't actually seen the top yet *(though it's looking plausible that we have but it's not a certainty), but it does tell you to be very alert looking for the top and that reducing exposure to the market would be wise if you're trading a long term view.


----------



## Wysiwyg (25 December 2018)

InsvestoBoy said:


> In the US, the Consumer Confidence Index - which tracks a much broader gauge of sentiment than "big money pros" or even "people that follow the market" - has a pretty strong correlation with deviations from long term fair value measures...



So it has been a depressing week for the American society?  I know what comes first.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (25 December 2018)

Can’t see any of the turmoil clearing until there is clarification on Britexit, trade war, the Fed, world banking bear market, EU issues.

The XAO will slowly get the 20-30% back over maybe 3-4 years at best.

Sentiment towards equities is very very poor.

People around the world want catastrophe and the stock market is a very easy place for it to happen.


----------



## qldfrog (25 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Can’t see any of the turmoil clearing until there is clarification on Britexit, trade war, the Fed, world banking bear market, EU issues.
> 
> The XAO will slowly get the 20-30% back over maybe 3-4 years at best.
> 
> ...



With tokyo at -5% last time i checked.we might see 5200 on the asx200 very soon
Even the optimistic forever Australiab investors may start to notice


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 December 2018)

qldfrog said:


> With tokyo at -5% last time i checked.we might see 5200 on the asx200 very soon



Stating the obvious I suppose but 1% daily declines have become 2% have become 3% and as you mention now 5% in some overseas markets. 

Either there's a bottom and a halt to the declines in the very near future or we're in real trouble.


----------



## qldfrog (26 December 2018)

Kicking the debt can since 2008 is never going to end well, there is no "it is different now".
So whether the crash is here now or will be delayed, in my opinion, it is not worth the risk 
so have been in USD,Gold,cash some short bonds ond bear eft fully for the last 6 months.
every day in the last two has been full of good $ news.just wondering if gold will stand.
It is also not that funny to be successful $ wise each time we head toward bad time.
people will suffer .are loosing their jobs houses and will not be happy with people like me if i profit then.yet i was just a doomy bearish guy a year ago when stating the obvious..
Being a contrarian is not easy


----------



## lenny (26 December 2018)

The market is certainly in a very precarious position atm with a break of the long term trendline off the GFC low and the illiquid Christmas holiday season. We could see 5000 (XJO) quickly.


----------



## $20shoes (26 December 2018)

MrChow said:


> My philosophy is the timing of this pullback is not yet supported by fundamental deterioration so I think we'll see a significant recovery that will mirror whatever the magnitude is IE. a +20% type bounce.
> 
> Yield inversion is possible in H1 2019 but that typically is around a 12 month leading indicator suggesting no recession until 2020.




Im a bit conflicted. I can count another impulse wave up still to come on the S&P500 but like Porpers wave count for our markets which suggests we're probably in a higher degree Wave C lower.

If you look at a possible wave count in the Super Cycle degree of the S&P500, Wave 1 completed in 1929, Wave 2 in completed in 1933  as a zig zag lasting four years.
Wave 3 completed in 2000.
Wave 4 completed in a little over 8 years with the GFC low.

 “Elliot Wave Principle” 10th Edition, on page 148 elaborates on Fibo Time progresssions

1929+3 = 1932 Bear Market
1929+5 = 1934 Correction Bottom
1929+8 = 1937 bull market top
1929+13 = 1942 bear market bottom
1928+21 = 1949 bear market bottom
1928+34 = 1962 crash bottom
1928+55 = 1983 probable Supercycle peak
_____________________________________

Frost and Prechter on page 149 then note a time deviation of plus or minus two units away from the exact Fib ratio for numbers 55 and 89.

So next in sequence would be

1929+89 = 2018 or S&P500 possible top range 2016-2020
OR
1928+89 = 2017 or S&P500 possible top range 2015-2019

I can do a count where we have one more impulse up on the S&P500 but that would complete Grand Super Cycle Wave 1 for the S&P500 which began many generations ago.


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## MrChow (26 December 2018)

ASX returns including dividends has never been negative over a 10 year period.

ASX returns including dividends have beaten bonds 85% of the time over a 10 year period.

https://www.asx.com.au/images/resources/201208-does-long-term-share-investing-still-work-image2.gif


----------



## gartley (26 December 2018)

qldfrog said:


> Kicking the debt can since 2008 is never going to end well, there is no "it is different now".
> So whether the crash is here now or will be delayed, in my opinion, it is not worth the risk
> so have been in USD,Gold,cash some short bonds ond bear eft fully for the last 6 months.
> every day in the last two has been full of good $ news.just wondering if gold will stand.
> ...



Likewise with Gold, Silver in AUD, USD)) .
Did likewise during the GFC.
Only other addition to this decline, have loaded up on SQQQ ( 3xBEAR NASDAQ ETF) because of the over inflated FAANGS.
Your right, being a contrarian is very hard in the face of extreme optimism and flak copped by the majority.  But if you are going to be successful as a contrarian it can't be any other way can it?


----------



## gartley (26 December 2018)

$20shoes said:


> Im a bit conflicted. I can count another impulse wave up still to come on the S&P500 but like Porpers wave count for our markets which suggests we're probably in a higher degree Wave C lower.
> 
> If you look at a possible wave count in the Super Cycle degree of the S&P500, Wave 1 completed in 1929, Wave 2 in completed in 1933  as a zig zag lasting four years.
> Wave 3 completed in 2000.
> ...




Having used EW in my trading for over 20 years, I would say don't even bother using EW for longer term projections. It's hard enough getting it right in the short to medium term))
Simply looking at the current pattern of trend in the US markets, it's pretty easy to see this is a 3rd wave of sorts here, and that the selling will continue. That's the beauty of clear impulse waves unfolding in a bear market given the shear panic and emotion involved.
Expecting a bounce starting this week but overall trend to continue down until next long/medium term time point in approx March/April @ 4800-5000 obvious support level

https://invst.ly/9m6q1


----------



## gartley (26 December 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> Oh I think not. Only the people that follow the market are aware of what is even happening and they would likely act but as for the social mood, people are none the wiser and thus not a reflection. The big money pros move the market.



And the big market pros who move the markets including the hedge funds are PEOPLE. Hope, fear and greed are thus the primary driver. *Always has been and always will be*. In this case it's mass fear and if you think I am wrong then why has the residential property market been tanking for the last 12 months, because of the market pro's? Don't think so


----------



## $20shoes (26 December 2018)

gartley said:


> And the big market pros who move the markets including the hedge funds are PEOPLE. Hope, fear and greed are thus the primary driver. *Always has been and always will be*. In this case it's mass fear and if you think I am wrong then why has the residential property market been tanking for the last 12 months, because of the market pro's? Don't think so




In my humble experience, the aggregate of herding instinct is the best explanation of the forces driving market moves. Everything else fits inside this as constructs that help perpetuate the mood or characteristics of the market structure at that point in time. I don't think big money works exclusive to this. I think they work within the same herding patterns.


----------



## MrChow (27 December 2018)

As of 2am futures indicate around -90 points for the XAO today.


----------



## sptrawler (27 December 2018)

So is this the biggest 'dead cat bounce' in a 100 years, or a return to the bull market?
I'm for the former. 
When does the RC findings get published?


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> So is this the biggest 'dead cat bounce' in a 100 years, or a return to the bull market?
> I'm for the former.



One sign you're in a bear market is extremely powerful rallies.

The Dow going up 5% in a single session is thus not necessarily a good sign from a long term perspective. If your thinking is that we're in a bear market then a move like that is another symptom.


----------



## qldfrog (28 December 2018)

And the up sidedid not go far in wall street...taking a bashing again


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (28 December 2018)

XAO be -0.20% today


----------



## qldfrog (28 December 2018)

Good time to get out in my opinion


----------



## Wysiwyg (31 December 2018)

gartley said:


> In this case it's mass fear and if you think I am wrong then why has the residential property market been tanking for the last 12 months, because of the market pro's? Don't think so



It's not the 'mass' that are in fear. It is only those directly invested in the market. The 'masses' hand responsibility to the so called 'pros'.


----------



## MrChow (31 December 2018)

XAO down -11% from the August peak.


----------



## Logique (16 January 2019)

Jan 2019 - a big bounce, if not quite a slam dunk entry for long term, but promising for the near term


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2019)

I tipped 6800 by years' end with fingers crossed. 

A chartists' view would be nice


----------



## mcgrath111 (16 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I tipped 6800 by years' end with fingers crossed.
> 
> A chartists' view would be nice


----------



## Logique (16 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I tipped 6800 by years' end with fingers crossed.
> A *chartists' view* would be nice



There's some outstanding work going on, by many posters, in the _XAO Technical Analysis_ thread. It's a really good insight into current market action, see at: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/xao-technical-analysis.4888/page-489


----------



## MrChow (9 February 2019)

So markets have recovered the majority of the bear market in absence of follow through on a 2019 recession.  Forecasts are still for 5% ish EPS growth for 2019 with figures in from the US December period offsetting recent weakness in narratives (with the ASX to report this month).

The fear of fear was similar in 2000 and 2007 when there was a full recovery of 15% type drawdowns as premature interpretations of leading indicators.

The issue is that around mid-year there could be problems as those leading indicators do actually tick over (bad trends in US jobless / unemployment and more inverted yield curve combos) which then tracks for a 2020 recession time frame and an anticipitory decline in market in 2H 2019 similar to 2H 2018 but this time based on actual figures not the fear of them.

Without going into exact calculations yet, I would be confident to say the next recession will result in a 30%+ drawdown for the XAO.


----------



## Logique (10 February 2019)

-Will the US Fed resume monetary tightening, or pause,
- what will happen with Brexit, 
- with US-China trade talks/tariffs. 

It's all coming to a head, and soon. Going to be a white knuckle ride for investors.  Quite honestly I don't know what's going to happen, but investors would be wise to monitor events closely


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 May 2019)

Has there ever been a stronger time for spec stocks on the ASX?


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 May 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Has there ever been a stronger time for spec stocks on the ASX?



2003 - 2007


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 June 2019)

Speccies doing a worn-out cat bounce after a 3-4 day sell off.  I don't know if the cats are dead, but a resumption of uptrend would be hard from here.

Should have known, given my previous post #3073.  Volumes are very low early.


----------



## notting (13 June 2019)

Let's just say I'm very, very concerned....
US budget deficit widened by $206b to $738.6b (A$1.066 trillion) in first 8 months. White House claims tax cuts will pay for themselves by creating more revenue through faster and sustainable economic growth. White House is barking mad -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...its-739-billion-with-four-months-left-in-year


----------



## gaius (13 June 2019)

Rate cut and QE solve all the world's economic problem. There is nothing to worry.

If the economy is doing well, the market will go up. If the economy is not doing well, the market will go up. Either way the market will go up. Nothing bad can happen to the market because the government wouldn't allow it.


----------



## notting (14 June 2019)

gaius said:


> Rate cut and QE solve all the world's economic problem. There is nothing to worry.
> 
> If the economy is doing well, the market will go up. If the economy is not doing well, the market will go up. Either way the market will go up. Nothing bad can happen to the market because the government wouldn't allow it.




Well, you seem to miss one slight detail.
The value of the US$.
QE is a good idea if the $ is overvalued as it was and still is.  Without that it's not really even possible.
As soon as you have debts which you cannot manage, let alone pay back. Very bad things tend to happen to that value very, very quickly and well, you get hyper inflation, bond market collapse and finally economic collapse and I'm not sure what happens after that given everyone looks to the US to see what to think and do next.  
Accept for China that is.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2019)

Some of the biggest runners in the last 6 months are being hit hard.  NET, 5GN, NXS.


----------



## willoneau (26 July 2019)

Hi Gringotts Banks, are you in any of them?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2019)

willoneau said:


> Hi Gringotts Banks, are you in any of them?




No, I'm not much good at catching knives.


----------



## willoneau (26 July 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> No, I'm not much good at catching knives.



Sorry Gringotts Banks, I meant before the pull backs.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2019)

willoneau said:


> Sorry Gringotts Banks, I meant before the pull backs.



yep, in and out at different times.


----------



## willoneau (26 July 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> yep, in and out at different times.



Discretionary or systematic?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2019)

willoneau said:


> Discretionary or systematic?



Combined.  System throws up signals, then I read HC and apply discretion.


----------



## willoneau (26 July 2019)

You read HC , what is that?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (26 July 2019)

willoneau said:


> You read HC , what is that?



Hot copper.


----------



## willoneau (26 July 2019)

your assistant stock picker?


----------



## Logique (3 August 2019)

I seem to remember this market.  It's 2005 again isn't it?

Reits, gold, market indices ..


----------



## qldfrog (4 August 2019)

Logique said:


> I seem to remember this market.  It's 2005 again isn't it?
> 
> Reits, gold, market indices ..



So we have 2 more years to make hay?while a forever negative guy, that would not surprise me


----------



## willoneau (4 August 2019)

I do like the way it is sloping up at the same rate.
I also think it will break through the high and continue for awhile, but only crystal ball stuff. I also read somewhere 2022 would be high.


----------



## PZ99 (6 August 2019)

Back to 6500 today ?


----------



## gartley (6 August 2019)

If multi year broadening pattern is complete in SPX, then this looks very ominous.....


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 August 2019)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...properties-and-keeping-cash-ready-51565017699

I doubt it's going to bounce.  Too much negativity world wide.  Trump will resist backing down, and China will never back down.  That means china 'wins' the trade war, but wars take a while to play out.  Thinking 5800.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 August 2019)

[edit]

MR system only generating 3 potential trades today, (all gold stocks).  I'll probably take 1 of them.  Gold has a good feel about it still, but opportunities to go long are scarce.


----------



## greggles (15 August 2019)

Looks like it's going to be a bloodbath at the open this morning... the few stocks I have checked look like they will be opening much lower.

Hold on to your hats folks! Things are going to get ugly.


----------



## HelloU (15 August 2019)

agree - but note 3thursday, so options day - that will initially distort the place.


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

HelloU said:


> agree - but note 3thursday, so options day - that will initially distort the place.




For equity index options. 

https://www.asx.com.au/documents/products/OptionsExpcalendar_2019.pdf


----------



## gartley (15 August 2019)

greggles said:


> Looks like it's going to be a bloodbath at the open this morning... the few stocks I have checked look like they will be opening much lower.
> 
> Hold on to your hats folks! Things are going to get ugly.



Post election rally is evaporiting..........Market is only 77pts higher than the same day last year. Thankful my portfolio is looking much better)))


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

gartley said:


> Post election rally is evaporiting..........Market is only 77pts higher than the same day last year. Thankful my portfolio is looking much better)))




Noting the market trend for timing is one thing, but buying quality is another. I don't buy the market, I am learning to buy the company and learning to use the market to time purchase decisions.


----------



## rnr (15 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> Noting the market trend for timing is one thing, but buying quality is another. I don't buy the market, *I am learning to buy the company* and learning to use the market to time purchase decisions.




@tinhat
Are you talking fundamental analysis?


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

rnr said:


> @tinhat
> Are you talking fundamental analysis?




Yes. I'm a subscriber to Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor.


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

rnr said:


> @tinhat
> Are you talking fundamental analysis?




But I'm also talking technical analysis. Be fundamentally right while the market spends the next ten years being wrong. How has copper worked out over the last ten years?

My most genuine suggestion to anyone is to give support to art and culture and training all boys and girls in the fact that Australia is leading the world into environmental destruction.


----------



## qldfrog (16 August 2019)

Seriously?
At least we are leader somewhere...


----------



## qldfrog (16 August 2019)

"Be fundamentally right while the market spends the next ten years being wrong."
@tinhat 
The market is always right
It can be dum, dummer but it is never wrong
If i may give you one advice:
This is the first hard lesson to know when investing or trading
It costs me dearly as well: always too early for trends in my case
 but it would pay for you to really get out of this thinking.


----------



## gartley (16 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> Noting the market trend for timing is one thing, but buying quality is another. I don't buy the market, I am learning to buy the company and learning to use the market to time purchase decisions.



As long as it works for you that's all that matters. Personally I am not interested in quality, only "movement" up or down. I seldom keep positions for any longer then 2 or 3 days))


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 September 2019)

Speccies very weak today.  Usually a sign.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 September 2019)

October only days away.  Has a reputation, so I'm lightening up a fair bit.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 September 2019)

Measured move plus ascending wedge breakdown.  Ords daily.


----------



## Logique (25 September 2019)

Compared to July, this rollover is a lower high, always disconcerting.


----------



## rnr (25 September 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> October only days away.  Has a reputation, *so I'm lightening up a fair bit.*




Hi GB,

I thought you traded a short term (Long) Mean Reversion system?
Your comment (in blue above) appears somewhat discretionary in nature or am I on the wrong track?

Cheers,
Rob


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 September 2019)

rnr said:


> Hi GB,
> 
> I thought you traded a short term (Long) Mean Reversion system?
> Your comment (in blue above) appears somewhat discretionary in nature or am I on the wrong track?
> ...



Hi Rob, I do but there's a few discretionary elements, one of which is position size.  Sometimes the All Ords is looking bearish enough that my position size goes to zero.  I have tried using an index filter but you miss too many good opportunities that way. 

I think our market might go back to 6600 and test that support.  Not a big drop.


----------



## rnr (25 September 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Hi Rob, I do but there's a few discretionary elements, one of which is position size.  Sometimes the All Ords is looking bearish enough that my position size goes to zero.  I have tried using an index filter but you miss too many good opportunities that way.
> 
> I think our market might go back to 6600 and test that support.  Not a big drop.




Thanks for your response GB. Have you attempted to develop a short mean reversion strategy at all?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 September 2019)

rnr said:


> Thanks for your response GB. Have you attempted to develop a short mean reversion strategy at all?



Yes I tried just recently.  Best I could do was a flat equity curve - there seems to be little follow through when stocks get pummelled.  The 'up via the stairs, down via the elevator' quality of markets means that short opportunities need to be anticipated in advance, and even then you might find yourself having to wait, or get stopped out.  It's not a good idea to move into a short position when it's well underway.  I think shorting is hard and probably best done with a fundamental approach.  Maybe have a look at Modest's thread - he seemed to be able to trade in both directions without any trouble.


----------



## rnr (25 September 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes I tried just recently.  Best I could do was a flat equity curve - there seems to be little follow through when stocks get pummelled.  The 'up via the stairs, down via the elevator' quality of markets means that short opportunities need to be anticipated in advance, and even then you might find yourself having to wait, or get stopped out.  *It's not a good idea to move into a short position when it's well underway.*  I think shorting is hard and probably best done with a fundamental approach.  Maybe have a look at Modest's thread - he seemed to be able to trade in both directions without any trouble.




Thanks again for your thoughts GB. The problem with a short MR system is you need to make an entry (sell) when the down move is well underway otherwise you end up with that flat equity curve to which you refer.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 September 2019)

rnr said:


> Thanks again for your thoughts GB. The problem with a short MR system is you need to make an entry (sell) when the down move is well underway otherwise you end up with that flat equity curve to which you refer.



I actually got a flat equity curve when the trend was underway.  The systems I was experimenting with would short stocks like ISX during the dead cat bounce.  So that's why I think shorts need to be anticipated, but correct me if you've found otherwise. The biggest limiter I think is that you can't easily short small stocks without crossing a huge spread.


----------



## rnr (25 September 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I actually got a flat equity curve when the trend was underway.  The systems I was experimenting with would short stocks like ISX during the dead cat bounce.  So that's why I think shorts need to be anticipated, but correct me if you've found otherwise. The biggest limiter I think is that you can't easily short small stocks without crossing a huge spread.




It's a while ago now since I did any short mean reversion system testing. From memory, the universe of stocks I used for back-testing was the F.P. Markets list of stocks that could be used to short the market using CFD's which was almost identical to the ASX200 constituents. The universe may be much larger now.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 October 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I think our market might go back to *6600 *and test that support.  Not a big drop.



6600.  Now, bounce or plummet?  I'll say bounce.


----------



## tinhat (3 October 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> 6600.  Now, bounce or plummet?  I'll say bounce.




I'm hoping for a bit more of a correction.  A bit of volatility over the next few days, however, would be helpful for me to exit a couple of short-term low conviction trades.

Looking at the weekly chart, we just put in a lower high with the week ending 20/09/19 being lower than the high reached during the week ending 02/08/19. 

Eyeballing the weekly XAO chart, the last time the XAO put in a higher low from which it subsequently rebounded was the lower high of the week ending ending 07/11/14. Previous to that a lower high in the week ending 03/01/14 also saw the market rebound to higher highs.

Those are the only two instances I can see of lower highs not signalling further correction since the GFC.

If we break below the 6500 range then maybe it's down to around 6,050. This would not surprise me when I look at many stocks on my watch list that have jumped up in recent weeks with gaps that, if closed, would make for excellent buys.

In other words, when I look at many individual stocks, across many sectors, rather than just the XAO, I feel that stock prices have got ahead of themselves. There has been some exuberance that could be easily subjected to campaigns of shaking out weak holders. Look at COL for goodness sake yielding 1.6% before franking credits. You would be better off personally hording coffee beans than buy those shares surely?


----------



## Logique (4 October 2019)

The thing is:
_"The cash *rate* of *0.75*% is a *new record low* and marks the first time the Australian cash rate has ever been below 1%.."
_
Not a great incentive to put your money in a bank, and watch inflation and fees eat it up.

Props up equities and property..to some extent at least?


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 October 2019)

Logique said:


> Props up equities and property..to some extent at least?



Agreed as a concept but I wonder to what extent it has already occurred?

Interest at 10% versus 1% sure that will make a difference to a lot of things.

1% versus 0.75% though, well I’m thinking that if someone has cash sitting around at 1% and wasn’t interested in investing or couldn’t find anything which stacked up then will 0.75% really change that?

That’s a question more than a firm view since I really don’t know.


----------



## sptrawler (4 October 2019)

tinhat said:


> If we break below the 6500 range then maybe it's down to around 6,050. This would not surprise me when I look at many stocks on my watch list that have jumped up in recent weeks with gaps that, if closed, would make for excellent buys.
> 
> In other words, when I look at many individual stocks, across many sectors, rather than just the XAO, I feel that stock prices have got ahead of themselves. There has been some exuberance that could be easily subjected to campaigns of shaking out weak holders. Look at COL for goodness sake yielding 1.6% before franking credits. You would be better off personally hording coffee beans than buy those shares surely?




Agree with you 100%, I put in a speculative 54c buy on MCR yesterday, expecting a reaction, it bloody went up. Go figure.
I will leave it in market for the month.
I certainly hope this correction does head down toward the 6000 mark, that would be brilliant. IMO


----------



## sptrawler (4 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed as a concept but I wonder to what extent it has already occurred?
> 
> Interest at 10% versus 1% sure that will make a difference to a lot of things.
> 
> ...




I think the interest rate drop, is more about telling people you keep it in the bank and we will drop the earnings on it, spend it or invest it don't leave it sitting there.
The other issue of course is the Australian currency hasn't fallen, because it is one of the only currencies paying any interest, so dropping interest rates into synch with overseas rates stops propping up the dollar.
Having said that, a mate who has a Thai partner, says he is getting better interest on his money in Thailand than here, also the Thai Baht is strengthening against the Aussi dollar.
So obviously this starts to put pressure on these Countries, which is what the underlying issue  is, if all manufacturing goes to these Countries, we end up with a complete role reversal.
The only one not playing the game is China, they control the value of their currency, so just devalue it to make their product more competitive.
Time to head off to happy hour.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 October 2019)

I see quite a few downside targets (green) and one upside (red) which is a fair way away.  I think something along the lines of the purple line might play out.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 October 2019)

Looks like 7000-7100 will happen before any testing of supports.


----------



## qldfrog (21 October 2019)

doesn t that look very suspicious to you? is the RBA buying shares or eft??


----------



## Gringotts Bank (14 November 2019)

I sense a disturbance in the Force.  Anyone else?

I think it's heading down to 6534 in a hurry.


----------



## barney (14 November 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I sense a disturbance in the Force.  Anyone else?
> 
> I think it's heading down to 6534 in a hurry.




Not sure Gringo …. yesterday's push down (Late Longs punished) and today's push up (Early Shorts being taken to the cleaners) is often a prelude for more Volatility

Given the DOW is still breaking higher, I think there will be a bit more pushing and shoving before we get the "express train to Strathfield"

Given I have now said that … It will be a bloodbath tomorrow lol ..


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 December 2019)

Markets are in the worst shape in a long time, but I think there's one more upwards move left.

ES has clear targets around *3210*.  Then there will be a big drop imo.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (12 December 2019)

This is the 1 hour chart of the AU200AUD CFD on Oanda. I like to keep this open just because it reflects the SPI futs/24 hour trading rather than the index chart which misses the overnight price action.

Anyway, I noticed that the price just keeps rejecting at the 50% retracement of the most recent "trade wars are bad and hard to win" swing down, including again this morning after the open. Also happens to coincide roughly with last weeks close.

Probably worth watching as it looks like that level is the line in the sand for current consolidation and a break in either direction.

The trend remains bullish so I guess bias is to break up but it sure does look like someone has plenty to sell at that level.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (12 December 2019)

and just after I posted this, another hefty rejection.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 December 2019)

This 50% line is so mesmerising, both the market and me are apparently obsessed with it.

Yesterdays rejection of the line led to a 1% decline before a narrative flip back to "trade wars are good and easy to win" drove us all the way back up there again and looks like yet another rejection is under way after the last hourly close a few minutes ago.

Here's the 5 min chart highlighting onwards from where I posted yesterday with a bit more granularity.



I guess it is a bit worrying that the index can't break up from here on a bullish narrative day. 

I'm as long of stocks as I always am (25%) and don't trade off intraday movement, this is just a fun observation for me. If we break up into uptrend resumption I will need to sell a little to stay within my allocation and if we break down then I get to start buying dips.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 December 2019)

One small additional observation, given the relatively bearish short term action in both gold priced in AUD and very-long-term Australian Government Bonds, the latter of which I bought the dip on this morning, I would really expect the market to be able to break up on this level.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 December 2019)

Well, shortly after my post on Friday the index started to break up above the 50% retracement and treat prior resistance as new support.

The NY session saw it test and then consolidate above there, with a power move up today!

The current price is pretty much exactly resting at the November monthly close price so it will be interesting to see whether December turns into an outside bar or not.

Hourly:


Monthly:


----------



## gartley (19 December 2019)

Whilst there are no certainties in these market, this monthly chart of the ASX200 really jumps out at me. The amount of Fibonacci/Lucas time cycles  that converge to the ATH of last month is amazing. This may not necessarily lead to a major turning point, then again it might! Nevertheless its interesting)) Also SPX long term cycles due for a major peak according to time cycles.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 January 2020)

Looks like I get the honour of first post of 2020 in this thread!

Quite the turnaround since Dec '19, where a breakdown with no new high makes that same swing down still the controlling range and essentially all the price action since then is just a consolidation within that range!

Here's the 4-hour chart showing all the action from late Nov 2018 with the same Fib retracement from above. Looks like someone wanted to sell a bunch into low year end liquidity and paid the price!




By my technical measures, the last weekly close of the year was bearish enough to constitute the beginning of a downtrend and expectation that the highest probability move is one to test/break the December lows.

Here's the whole of 2019 in monthly bars. The December bar certainly looks different from how it looked the last time I posted it, having been unable to break the prior monthly high or even hold onto levels around the prior monthly close.




Dec/Jan is the end/start of the new financial year for US investors, so you can usually expect some movement at the start of the year as international investors try to do some tax optimisation.

Here's the whole of 2019 as a weekly chart for US listed EWA ETF, tracking MSCI Australia Index which you can think of as somewhere between the ASX50 and ASX100 constituent wise but priced in USD.




FWIW, there's some minor bullish action in gold priced in AUD recently but very-long-term Australian Government Bonds got hit pretty hard at the end of the year (giving a nice dip to rebalance into) too so the ancillary signs from other important markets aren't exactly clear.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 January 2020)

Consolidations are fun!

We are still trapped within the previously mentioned swing range and are now trading up in the even tighter range that developed from mid-late Dec, back up to the try against the November monthly close area again.

This action is whipsawing the weekly technicals I check for trend, so while I "technically" signal bearish if the week did close up around here it'd be back to bullish.



If you do look at the weekly chart really all the action since early August 2018 has been a choppy consolidation, but one with an upward bias to the bottom end of the chop.

I'd be curious to hear from @peter2 or other momentum traders about how their positions fared in that kind of market condition.




The recent action in AUD priced gold and very-long-term Australian Government Bonds has been quite strong recently so I was a little surprised when I saw todays action was so strongly bullish.


----------



## tinhat (22 January 2020)

I ended last year already bullish the australian stock market for 2020. I'm bullish precious metals and base metals. I'm expecting a recovery in global trade because although they are the two biggest economies, direct US-China trade is only a fraction of total global trade. I'm seeing significant structural changes to the energy and transportation industries globally. Major industries are retooling globally and IT continues to radically change industry and market structure and behaviour across the entire economy globally too.

Recently I've become more bullish gold because it is clear that the USA is making itself less internationally economically relevant and powerful and technology (bit-chain) will see the demise of the USD as the global currency of trade and finance which will see the day of economic reckoning for the USA probably in my lifetime.

So a couple of themes as we enter into the last year of the decade and look forward to the coming one. The USD will fall, gold will rise and the XAO (total returns) will outperform the S&P500 (total returns) over the coming decade. Outward looking Aussie listed companies prepared to take on the world will thrive in IT, biotech and life sciences as well as the materials sector and precious metals.

Anyway, none of the above is what I came here to post about. I hopped into the car yesterday arvo and the radio came on. I'm not sure which ABC radio station I was listening to (Sydney, News Radio or Radio National) but I caught the end of a conversation and I wasn't really listening to it until it caught my attention. There was a bloke being interviewed, and as I said this was just the tail end of the piece, and he appeared to be suggesting that potential first home buyers look into putting their savings into geared ETF funds as a means to getting better return on savings as they strive to save up for a home deposit. I was gobsmacked. Did anyone else hear this story? Do you remember which program it was on so I can try and find it online?

I know that interest rates are so low now that some retirees are looking to mortgage against their property to invest in ETFs which yield a margin of 4 or 5 percent above the borrowing interest. I looked into mortgage rates for the first time in years myself the other day and sure enough you can get a ubank home owner mortgage for around 2.86% and even a five year fixed interest only investor loan (80% valuation) for just 3.33%. But by golly, suggesting to young people to gear into ETFs as a means of saving for a house. wow. Given that there is a very good chance of another interest rate cut, if this is the thinking that is going on out in the general public well, hold on! Bull market on the ASX here we come.


----------



## tinhat (6 February 2020)

I exited all the stocks I held no conviction over today and I took profit on others. Good luck to all!


----------



## Knobby22 (7 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> I exited all the stocks I held no conviction over today and I took profit on others. Good luck to all!



Why? Do you think the bull market has run it's course?


----------



## tinhat (7 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Why? Do you think the bull market has run it's course?




I've got a concrete cutter on hire that I have to get back to the shop and I'm taking some nature conservation friends on a walk and talk tomorrow. A lot of the talk will be about Aboriginal heritage and the recent impacts.

Today seemed like a good day to get some cash stached. I'm a perma bull. But cash is king right?


----------



## tinhat (7 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> I've got a concrete cutter on hire that I have to get back to the shop and I'm taking some nature conservation friends on a walk and talk tomorrow. A lot of the talk will be about Aboriginal heritage and the recent impacts.
> 
> Today seemed like a good day to get some cash stached. I'm a perma bull. But cash is king right?


----------



## MrChow (22 February 2020)

I follow the Initial Jobless in the US.

Markets including the XAO create or hover around their highs in a bull market until Initial Jobless rise (roughly) +15% from trough and sustain it, that would be 230k and we're still at about 205k.


----------



## gartley (26 February 2020)

Hurst Daily Price projection for ASX200 before a bounce or rally: 6605-6638. Once and IF that range is reached wait for confirmation by at least 2 cycle FT's turning up and signal FT to cross above zero.


----------



## UMike (27 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> I've got a concrete cutter on hire that I have to get back to the shop and I'm taking some nature conservation friends on a walk and talk tomorrow. A lot of the talk will be about Aboriginal heritage and the recent impacts.
> 
> Today seemed like a good day to get some cash stached. I'm a perma bull. But cash is king right?



 Not quite all cashed up but close.

Just waiting for the tide to turn and get back in. Might be a while yet though.


----------



## tinhat (27 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Why? Do you think the bull market has run it's course?



Hey Knob, It's been discussed before but I'm quite cranky these days so I apologise if my response to your post appeared to be personal because it certainly wasn't targeted at you but targeted at my inner dialogue.

I cannot overstate how angry I am these days. Maybe it is the male menopause. I don't think so. I think it is because we have never lived through such times of government incompetence and corruption. It's on purpose too. Murdoch and the big accounting firms now run this government and it's not good for the little people. I now understand why people vote for One Nation and for the Nats all while the Nats sell off the farm (and perhaps more importantly the water) to the selective harvesters.

I've been personally involved with the Morrison electorate office of Cook and that office is dodgy. No doubt. 100%. I will swear in court.

Buy the company but play the market. I played rugby as a kid. It taught me a lot.


----------



## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

I understand and didn't take it that way, Tinhat.

I used to be more angry due to my nature and work pressure but am coming out the other side becoming calmer. I think my wife has been a good influence.

Frankly, at present my big emotion is fear, scared of the future, short term with the virus and its effect especially for the extended family, long term with everything else. Too many people seem to have a ring through their nose and will do whatever their master will tell them.

Being all too human,  I will probably lash out at some stage due to this.

You were right about the bull market.


----------



## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

Another strong fall in the us so more blood for the asx.the us market is also scare as the Sanders is the preferred candidate for the democrats and him and his nuts team has a fair chance if the economy collapses with the virus.
Who would have thought we would see last century communism offered as a serious option in the united state.even after the virus, China is definitely the next suoerpower


----------



## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Another strong fall in the us so more blood for the asx.the us market is also scare as the Sanders is the preferred candidate for the democrats and him and his nuts team has a fair chance if the economy collapses with the virus.
> Who would have thought we would see last century communism offered as a serious option in the united state.even after the virus, China is definitely the next suoerpower




Yes, generally acting as if you are in a government for the people rather than the wealthy. It will obviously be an absolute disaster.

All further comments should be in another thread (this thread is really drifting), maybe start a *Bernie Sanders will destroy America *thread.


----------



## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, generally acting as if you are in a government for the people rather than the wealthy. It will obviously be an absolute disaster.
> 
> All further comments should be in another thread (this thread is really drifting), maybe start a *Bernie Sanders will destroy America *thread.



As a political/economic refugee from one of Europe socialist Eden, you will allow me to disagree.This is nevertheless another reason the US market is going down whether you like it or not, so this has a place here as your super and many others will be impacted.


----------



## wayneL (28 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, generally acting as if you are in a government for the people rather than the wealthy. It will obviously be an absolute disaster.



Just like the Bolsheviks bro. 20,000,000 political murders coming right up.


----------



## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

Hey, start a thread.


----------



## UMike (28 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> Hey Knob, It's been discussed before but I'm quite cranky these days so I apologise if my response to your post appeared to be personal because it certainly wasn't targeted at you but targeted at my inner dialogue.
> 
> I cannot overstate how angry I am these days. Maybe it is the male menopause. I don't think so. I think it is because we have never lived through such times of government incompetence and corruption. It's on purpose too. Murdoch and the big accounting firms now run this government and it's not good for the little people. I now understand why people vote for One Nation and for the Nats all while the Nats sell off the farm (and perhaps more importantly the water) to the selective harvesters.
> 
> ...



Try Owning a restaurant. It'd add another dimension or 3 to the anger levels.

Always thought the market was a bit toppy. The virus aside. Might be a while till it is right to get back in.


----------



## wayneL (28 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Hey, start a thread.



I feel no need to state what is obvious to anyone with more than 3 brain cells


----------



## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

wayneL said:


> I feel no need to state what is obvious to anyone with more than 3 brain cells



 Doesn't worry me, opinion without facts is just that.


----------



## wayneL (28 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Doesn't worry me, opinion without facts is just that.



20,000,000 murders is fact, not opinion, bro.


----------



## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

Start a thread you tosser.


----------



## wayneL (28 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Start a thread you tosser.



Ah, so we are going to start trading ad hominem insults, fantastic.

I'm quite prepared to start a new thread if you could suggest a title which is at odds with what we are discussing here. Incidentally a topic introduced by yourself.

I prefer to keep it at a level here in the thread but if you would like to trade insults, pm me, we could really go to town, if you like.


----------



## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

And you have to remove your pink glasses 
part of the US market fall is the emergence of Bernie as a potential candidate and even president should the virus crisis develop.
Double whammy on the American economy..and so the world one too


----------



## greggles (9 March 2020)

XAO currently down 377 points or 6.1%. 

What was the largest one day drop for the XAO? I can't recall.


----------



## qldfrog (9 March 2020)

greggles said:


> XAO currently down 377 points or 6.1%.
> 
> What was the largest one day drop for the XAO? I can't recall.



I can not recall anything like today but maybe was not focussed enough at the time


----------



## InsvestoBoy (9 March 2020)

greggles said:


> XAO currently down 377 points or 6.1%.
> 
> What was the largest one day drop for the XAO? I can't recall.




XJO did -8.98% during Sep '08 ...still nothing compared to '87...


----------



## PZ99 (9 March 2020)

10/10/08 -8.34%
*9/3/20 -7.33% *today
22/1/08 -7.05%
16/10/08 -6.66%
13/11/08 -5.86%
17/4/00 -5.40%
8/10/08 -4.99%
17/9/01 -4.69%
23/10/08 -4.37%
6/11/08 -4.31%


----------



## BlindSquirrel (9 March 2020)

Oof!


(You can see where I've been bag-holding! Luckily this is only my play-money account)


----------



## greggles (9 March 2020)

PZ99 said:


> 10/10/08 -8.34%
> *9/3/20 -7.33% *today
> 22/1/08 -7.05%
> 16/10/08 -6.66%
> ...




20 October 1987 was supposed to be a 515.5 point (25%) fall.


----------



## PZ99 (9 March 2020)

greggles said:


> 20 October 1987 was supposed to be a 515.5 point (25%) fall.



I made an error there - that was the AX-200 which launched in Y2K 

Might find more info here > https://www.marketindex.com.au/all-...oSN_f0TsnM1ysB0D2N2f_Tv_LtsMXL2fPqL5ZQ3MCc0wo

For XAO - About halfway down is a "Full History" of Monthly data 1979 - 2018 in Excel format

PS, check this out for volatility..


----------



## InsvestoBoy (10 March 2020)

Here is some banter.

Todays 11% low->high move constitutes an *inside bar* (given, the 24h session is not yet closed).

An 11% move, still didn't touch the edges of yesterday.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (12 March 2020)

If anyone's after a silver lining: If a stock has dropped 5% for each of two days in a row, the dollar difference isn't as high as yesterday!


----------



## wayneL (12 March 2020)

greggles said:


> 20 October 1987 was supposed to be a 515.5 point (25%) fall.



That was after a truly monumental run up and non digital markets.

I think this route is a bit more worrying for the long-term.


----------



## wayneL (12 March 2020)

BlindSquirrel said:


> If anyone's after a silver lining: If a stock has dropped 5% for each of two days in a row, the dollar difference isn't as high as yesterday!



At 1500 it will be even less


----------



## peter2 (13 March 2020)

*Friday the 13th*:  Lucky for some. 
Is lil ol' Australia doing the heavy lifting?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 March 2020)

peter2 said:


> *Friday the 13th*:  Lucky for some.
> Is lil ol' Australia doing the heavy lifting?




I think it's lil ol' AUD that's doing the heavy lifting! 0.62c to the USD, that is a massive shock absorber for our economy.


----------



## rederob (13 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I can not recall anything like today but maybe was not focussed enough at the time



I have not checked thoroughly but today may have been the largest intraday movement for a very long time at 650 points, and I think we are hard pressed to find a 32% range within 3 weeks of trading.


----------



## hja (14 March 2020)

rederob said:


> I have not checked thoroughly but today may have been the largest intraday movement for a very long time at 650 points, and I think we are hard pressed to find a 32% range within 3 weeks of trading.



It looks like trading will stay inside this range for at least the next few days, given all the buying we saw in it,  until we see a big move down or up away from it.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (16 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I think it's lil ol' AUD that's doing the heavy lifting! 0.62c to the USD, that is a massive shock absorber for our economy.




I've got a small holding in QCOM that is down $80 USD but up $40 AUD


----------



## qldfrog (17 March 2020)

Not sure little Aussie will be able to help much today after the 12pc fall in the USA..


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Not sure little Aussie will be able to help much today after the 12pc fall in the USA..




Look at the S&P 500 VIX: 82
Look at S&P ASX 200 VIX: 42


----------



## Logique (17 March 2020)

XAO now hugely tech oversold on ridiculously inflated volatility. And hitting a zone of previous resistance/new support at 4900-5000. So it either holds here, or runs down to next support 4000 (which would be a long way from here).

No wonder there's green ink this morning. It's starting to look interesting.


----------



## dyna (17 March 2020)

Be interested to see what the serious money is doing,just after 4 pm this arvo,when the talkers and gawkers have packed it in for the day.My buy orders are not gonna make it......come back,big,bad virus.


----------



## kid hustlr (17 March 2020)

I'm interested in @InsvestoBoy thoughts on the gold miners (miners in general) getting bought up today?

Is the longer them theory cyclical stocks are the play if we get inflation?


----------



## Logique (17 March 2020)

dyna said:


> Be interested to see what *the serious money* is doing,just after 4 pm this arvo,when the talkers and gawkers have packed it in for the day.My buy orders are not gonna make it......come back,big,bad virus.



They're looking ..if the US & Euro futs are any guide today. Mind you a near double-digit down yesterday, a reactive move is no surprise


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> I'm interested in @InsvestoBoy thoughts on the gold miners (miners in general) getting bought up today?
> 
> Is the longer them theory cyclical stocks are the play if we get inflation?




I've always been open that I'm not a huge fan of gold mining stocks.

I hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of.

Miners in general are front-line beneficiaries of inflation mostly through beta to oil.

Look at inflation breakevens, see how they basically track the oil price to a tee.


Oil up >> inflation up. Most commodities are oil beta, just like stocks are growth beta different commodities move differently like sectors move differently while they all still track growth.

BHP (ASX) against cash WTI/AUDUSD


----------



## Country Lad (17 March 2020)

We are at about the same value now as where this chart finishes in 2016


----------



## kid hustlr (18 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I've always been open that I'm not a huge fan of gold mining stocks.
> 
> I hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of.
> 
> ...




Can you elaborate on the "i hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of".

I'm really interested in the "one should always hold gold" thesis in general - any links you can provide?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Can you elaborate on the "i hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of".




Physical gold has no counterparty risk. Shares in gold miners have counterparty risk.

Physical gold has -at different times- beta to real interest rates, energy prices, USD, emerging market currencies, etc. It's a magical portfolio diversifier. Shares in gold miners have only beta to the price of gold and management competence (or lack thereof). See the price of gold from 2011-2016 vs the price of gold miners during the same period.

ASX XGD index vs XAUAUD



Physical gold is a diversifier against the financial system itself, held as the base of every Central Banks reserve pyramid. Shares in gold miners are held as a reserve asset by no Central Bank.

If there is a currency collapse/hyperinflation type event, physical gold hedges that perfectly. If I hold gold miners during such an event all I end up with is more collapsed currency.




> I'm really interested in the "one should always hold gold" thesis in general - any links you can provide?




I'm a long time follower of FOFOA http://fofoa.blogspot.com/ but it's not really a mainstream view. Most fund managers hold it as a real interest rate play alongside duration.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (24 March 2020)

A bit of banter:

XJO after market session just made exceeded the previous days high! 

First time in ?7? trading sessions (14% higher) and before that last time we exceeded a daily high was 5th March (24% higher), both events seem like an eternity ago.

We are now also trading above last weeks close, an event that last occurred on the 3rd of March.




wild.


----------



## kid hustlr (24 March 2020)

Mum and Dad super funds deciding to liquidate over the weekend selling the low on Monday morning?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (24 March 2020)

Who knows...maybe the announcements out of Europe that they are going to do fiscal stimulus plus whatever the Fed is doing is starting to hold the line?

If, and it's a *big* if, 4420 is the swing low then there are fib retracements at 5077 ~5% higher, 5483 ~14% higher, 5811 ~20% higher, 6139 ~28% higher...


----------



## kid hustlr (24 March 2020)

Agree it's a big if!


----------



## InsvestoBoy (25 March 2020)

kid hustlr said:


> Agree it's a big if!




If you pop over to the "How Far Will The Market Fall" thread, it was a biiiig if to make this post
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-2#post-1060468

But then the 0.618 fib extension there got dinged for a closing price and then bounce:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-7#post-1061227

and now looks like again off the 0.786:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-18#post-1063748

This market is all about the big ifs it seems...


----------



## InsvestoBoy (25 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> If, and it's a *big* if, 4420 is the swing low then there are fib retracements at 5077 ~5% higher, 5483 ~14% higher, 5811 ~20% higher, 6139 ~28% higher...




5077 dinged just after the open...


----------



## IFocus (25 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> 5077 dinged just after the open...





Don't know if its still the case but fib always prefered ASX200


----------



## Logique (25 March 2020)

Todays XAO action was a clear break-out from the recent daily downtrend.

Combined with some amenable looking momentum indicators, it is the best market news in weeks. The $AUD is up above 0.60 again, and that's good news too, except for exporters, and at the bowser.


----------



## satanoperca (25 March 2020)

Logique said:


> Todays XAO action was a clear break-out from the recent daily downtrend.
> 
> Combined with some amenable looking momentum indicators, it is the best market news in weeks. The $AUD is up above 0.60 again, and that's good news too, except for exporters, and at the bowser.



Have you missed something, there is no good news. Exporters, wow they have gone from 85 to 60, things have improved.

ASX below 3000 within weeks


----------



## mcgrath111 (25 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Have you missed something, there is no good news. Exporters, wow they have gone from 85 to 60, things have improved.
> 
> ASX below 3000 within weeks



Below 3000 is a big and scary call. I'm not sure we will go that low, but agree that things are going to get worse.
The U.S is in bad shape; stimulus will see small upswings but how that trickles down to the average Joe who has lost his job is a real unknown.
Every bear market has positive days and may well continue to for the next few weeks. Yet, I can't see how we rally from here (In the short term).

EDIT: Although 2 trillion in stimulus isn't chump change, it will be interesting to see how it gets distributed.


----------



## hja (25 March 2020)

Logique said:


> Todays XAO action was a clear break-out from the recent daily downtrend.
> 
> Combined with some amenable looking momentum indicators, it is the best market news in weeks. The $AUD is up above 0.60 again, and that's good news too, except for exporters, and at the bowser.



Oh really - Fake market news?


----------



## satanoperca (25 March 2020)

mcgrath111 said:


> EDIT: Although 2 trillion in stimulus isn't chump change, it will be interesting to see how it gets distributed.



2T, why not 3 or 4T, just numbers unless you have to pay the rent on your shelter of 0.0000000000000000000001T per month.


----------



## Logique (25 March 2020)

".._below_ _3,000 within weeks_" ..Satanop and presumably Hja?

Don't play politics. Greta thinks she has Corona btw


----------



## hja (25 March 2020)

Logique said:


> ".._below_ _3,000 within weeks_" ..Satanop and presumably Hja?
> 
> Don't play politics. Greta thinks she has Corona btw



haha I don't about 3000 but do you really think that breakout is convincing? 
Greta expresses a lot of her thoughts... let's just say she's not always/often right...


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

hja said:


> Oh really - Fake market news?



What's wrong with Logique's assessment of what has occurred?

They haven't said there's any guarantee as to the future but the comment seems pretty spot on in terms of what's happened thus far. It's a more convincing bounce that anything else since the decline got underway - no guarantees what happens next of course.


----------



## hja (26 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> What's wrong with Logique's assessment of what has occurred?
> 
> They haven't said there's any guarantee as to the future but the comment seems pretty spot on in terms of what's happened thus far. It's a more convincing bounce that anything else since the decline got underway - no guarantees what happens next of course.



Yeah, hope it works out but those last 2 days are a bit mingy compared to the long takedown bars.


----------



## Logique (27 March 2020)

I can't imagine what it must be like to stand out on the street all day, just to get inside of a Centrelink office, especially if it was someone's the first time ever. There's some real suffering out there in the community.

I just think we need to be careful with our messaging. Factual, but upbeat wherever possible.

Massive stimulus from US & Aust governments has led to a few better days, but we need trend follow through now. Nobody said a V-shape recovery was likely


----------



## hja (27 March 2020)

Well I hope that Centrelink management will soon make a V-shape recovery in realising that each person can be texted a queue number and place in the queue, instead of spilling out on to the street like alphabet soup!


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

hja said:


> Well I hope that Centrelink management will soon make a V-shape recovery in realising that each person can be texted a queue number and place in the queue, instead of spilling out on to the street like alphabet soup!



That mean common sense and freedom for the employees to act..
If a local employee does that, it will be against so many rules he she would get sacked, then social media will be full of angry warroers because a pregnant or Aborigines..you name it person will not have been prioritises properly
In time of war and crisis only do we see exposed the worst of people and systems .
All these fake jobs, and Kafkaesque rules


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 March 2020)

Here's a thought for the weekend now that the market is closed.

This move has been so fast! So let's remove time from the charts.

Here's the range bar chart (each bar is 100 XJO points), with some vertical lines at the end of Dec 2019, end of Jan 2020, end of Feb 2020:




wowsers! Quite a show.

Now let's do the range bar chart for STW (each bar is $1), just to see the diff with no overnight action:


----------



## InsvestoBoy (31 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Who knows...maybe the announcements out of Europe that they are going to do fiscal stimulus plus whatever the Fed is doing is starting to hold the line?
> 
> If, and it's a *big* if, 4420 is the swing low then there are fib retracements at 5077 ~5% higher, 5483 ~14% higher, 5811 ~20% higher, 6139 ~28% higher...
> 
> View attachment 101661




Well, it was a big if @kid hustlr , but 4420 turned out to be the swing low.

5077 we dinged, didn't make it to 5483 yet though. Who knows if we will.

Fib retracement from 4420 to the current minor swing high around 5400 had 5028 as the 0.382 retracement, which along with the confluence of a trendline I pulled out of my arse was where the price bounced this afternoon as the market closed:




enough to get us to 5483 and maybe even 5811?

dunno, but fun to watch.


----------



## kid hustlr (31 March 2020)

Well said.

Also the fun to watch comment, I'm due for a purchase next week but apart from that it's just making good tv for me


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 April 2020)

Just an 80 point move on the open, how boring


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 April 2020)

Oh there we go!




to be honest looks like either a massive short is covering or getting squeezed


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 April 2020)

What a wiiild day!




Bids came in before/on the close again...


----------



## barney (1 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> What a wiiild day! Bids came in before/on the close again...




FTSE and DAX pre open getting pushed hard to the down side … could also be a wild night!


----------



## fiftyeight (1 April 2020)

Is what getting "covid under control vs reacting slow to covid" looks like?

XJO vs ES


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 April 2020)

Activity above the trendline starting to look distribution-y




Think there needs to be a bullish US session to keep it alive.


----------



## fiftyeight (2 April 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> Is what getting "covid under control vs reacting slow to covid" looks like?
> 
> XJO vs ES
> 
> View attachment 101883




I used this to add to my BEAR.ASX position yesterday, I am now at 'close my eyes and cross my fingers' size.

Woke up to ES down 4.5%, down 1%ish RTH after a fun close? At least I 'shouldn't' blow my account this morning which would be nice


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Activity above the trendline starting to look distribution-y
> 
> View attachment 101887
> 
> ...




Well, there was no bullish US session.

Where the market closed overnight is riiiiiight right on top of the 0.236 Fib retracement from the Feb highs => March lows, but it doesn't look healthy:

1H chart



Trendline I posted last night got broken and rejected on test, last chance trend line coming right up below that, with a confluence of the 0.382 retracement from the current 4400 swing low => 5400 swing high:

15M chart:



a break down could see us back at 4623, but maybe we will hold?

with bonds getting bid again and gold holding the line, I'll likely be buying equity dips on fresh cashflow again...


----------



## moXJO (2 April 2020)

So I noticed bbus was going up into close yesterday. Day before I think it was down. Is it any good as a prediction tool on the dow? 
I basically have app charting capabilities at the moment. So hard to investigate.

It seemed to diverge a bit from our market yesterday. Which seemed to indicate a lot more then the futures were at the time.
I suppose it's only useful if xao follows the dow.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 April 2020)

Another wild day.




5204 is the closing price I have for March. We are above the last two weekly closes, regaining and testing the monthly close as support instead of resistance would be nice.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Is it any good as a prediction tool on the dow?
> I basically have app charting capabilities at the moment. So hard to investigate.




It's not a predictor. It just holds short SPX futures...


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 April 2020)

Sellers after close today


----------



## Knobby22 (2 April 2020)

I don't feel there is a proper floor/base to the recent rise.
Not a chartist but I feel we will get roughly a 10% fall then a 5% rise Then a big 25% fall over the next two weeks.
The existing mood is completely unrealistic, hopelessness will be the next mood.


----------



## willoneau (2 April 2020)

What if you used the ATR of pre crash as a signal to when possible bottom has been established?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 April 2020)

Double inside day




I would say this is a critical juncture. My experience is that if inside day breakout to the upside and then fail all the way down to form an outside day, that is very often a baaad sign. So if we breach yesterdays high, it really needs to stick.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 April 2020)

Just realised this trendline is still rejecting even as the price went up overnight,




doesn't look super healthy.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 April 2020)

Well, we breached yesterdays low (orange) and rejected a bunch at the March closing price (yellow). Last weeks close (green) could be possible...

Trend lines didn't hold.




From a fib perspective yesterdays low nearly perfectly matched the 0.236 retracement of 4400 => 5400. Otherwise potential upcoming supports at 5028 (0.382 retrace), 4912 (0.5 retrace), 4796 (0.618 retrace).




The retrace for 7200 => 4400 does look like the price was rejected well before it cold gain the 0.382 and breaking down below the 0.236




I think there's still a chance for the bulls, just as I said this morning if breaches to yesterdays upside fails to the downside, if the overnight session can breach the upside now to form a bullish outside day I would view that as quite bullish. But for now, breakout of the double inside bar consolidation is bearish, and was unable to gain the monthly close.

Just after 4PM now, see if the bulls return for the close or not.


----------



## fiftyeight (3 April 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> I used this to add to my BEAR.ASX position yesterday, I am now at 'close my eyes and cross my fingers' size.
> 
> Woke up to ES down 4.5%, down 1%ish RTH after a fun close? At least I 'shouldn't' blow my account this morning which would be nice
> 
> View attachment 101891




Looks like I will be waiting in the, 'cross everything zone' for the weekend. Not ideal but much better than the 'bury my head in the sand' zone.

Now to see what the rest of the world and Trump do


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 April 2020)

Weekend check-in, starting from the big timezones and zooming in.

Monthly, we just started the month, I won't post the chart but we are trading below last months close.

Weekly, we had another *UP* week! It does look like this weeks high tested the lows of the Christmas 2018 panic as resistance and rejected. Last weeks highs also got tested and rejected:



Daily, well the double inside bar broke down but actually closed back within the range of the pattern. Not exactly an explosive move outside a consolidation pattern. FWIW, based on 5 bar swing pattern (--^--, --v--), it does look like we just made a higher low and a (very weak) higher high. That sort of defines how the the next move might play out, breaches of ~4800 would be a lower low, breaches of ~5400 would be a higher high:



4 hourly to show the Fib retrace from ~7200 => ~4420, we managed to close the week juuuuust a bit above the 0.236 retrace. To me the pattern forming in that yellow area between 0.236 and 0.382 retrace looks like distribution that wants to resolve lower, but who knows how it will play out. 



Last one, the 15 minute, might as well calls this chart "rejection city" because all we got this week was nonstop trendline rejection. I actually can't fit enough arrows on the chart to show them all, suggest you open this up and zoom in on the right hand side to see how much the intraday action really got sold off these lines.

That said, we didn't break down a lot from those rejections, in a lot of cases immediately went higher to re-test the line again. Make of that what you will!


----------



## qldfrog (4 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Weekend check-in, starting from the big timezones and zooming in.
> 
> Monthly, we just started the month, I won't post the chart but we are trading below last months close.
> 
> ...



Maybe many people offloading their batgains from a few weeks ago for a small profit
Did that with api,qbe,anz this week


----------



## InsvestoBoy (6 April 2020)

Promising early action this week from the bulls. 


Two bullish trendlines regained
New bearish trendline broken
Broke above the high of the double inside bar pattern
Intraday test of March close as support
What has two thumbs and feels like a dingdong for buying OTM June puts at 5180 last week?


----------



## fiftyeight (6 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Promising early action this week from the bulls.
> 
> 
> Two bullish trendlines regained
> ...




Is he mates with guy who BEAR.ASX hunting?

After watching the news over the weekend becoming more and more positive in Oz, today was a bit less painful than expected.

But it is hard to believe this is the bottom. Banks putting mortgages on pause for 6 months, countless capex projects suspended, retail spending crashing, the US still unfolding, Singapore starting lock downs..... we know the list.

Anecdotally, the number of people considering cashing out super is higher than I expected and we are supposedly cashed up FIFO workers. Has anyone found any numbers on this yet?


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 April 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> But it is hard to believe this is the bottom.



I'm thinking that a dramatic plunge, and it was most certainly that, will be followed by a similarly spectacular dead cat bounce.

I doubt it's the bottom but I doubt we've seen the end of the bounce either.


----------



## qldfrog (6 April 2020)

A put on 5100 in June if at a decent price: i buy
I would expect to sell it at the next fall before june


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## InsvestoBoy (7 April 2020)

I'd be surprised if we don't ding the 0.382 retrace of the fall at 5482 this morning.


----------



## Country Lad (7 April 2020)

Oh dear, that didn't last long.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I'd be surprised if we don't ding the 0.382 retrace of the fall at 5482 this morning.




Ok, I'm surprised!

I thought we might reject, but I thought we'd touch higher first.

Hourly:


----------



## IFocus (7 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Oh dear, that didn't last long.
> 
> View attachment 102050




I wonder if that was the big boys pump and dump as people rush to cash in superannuation funds?


----------



## fiftyeight (7 April 2020)

This BEAR wont finish me off or let me go, just keeps playing with his food


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 April 2020)

IFocus said:


> I wonder if that was the big boys pump and dump as people rush to cash in superannuation funds?




This is purely speculation but I don't think "big boys" are pumping and dumping.

To me, watching the price action all day, the last 5-10 trading sessions have all had the feeling of big boys buying and trigger squeezes, a tactic that probably works in normal markets, but then there are just huuuuge sellers waiting for any opportunity to offload parcels. I dunno if it's super funds generating liquidity or what, but someone has plenty to sell.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> regaining and testing the monthly close as support instead of resistance would be nice.




looks like we got it?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (8 April 2020)

Well we got a shakeout below the March close price this morning at the open, but up since then again.

Above chart is hourly, below is 15 min



a lot of effort to end up back where we were yesterday...


----------



## InsvestoBoy (8 April 2020)

heh, dinged the trendline and straight sell into the close huh...ok...


----------



## InsvestoBoy (12 April 2020)

Couldn't post any intraday charts on Thursday as TradingView kept stuffing up.

Anyway, time for the weekly check-in while the markets are closed:

On the monthly chart, we are above the March close. How high might we go? Nobody knows for sure, but the most recent completed monthly ATR was 494 XJO points and the H/L range for this month so far is 434, we could push a bit more in either direction and still be "average".

Weekly, another up week, bringing the number of consecutive up weeks to 3! We did clear the 2018 low and even hold it on a weekly basis, that's nice, but the more consecutive up weeks the higher the likelihood of a down week eventuating. The weekly close from the second week of March looks like it might be a point of interest to test this coming week so I included that on the chart:





On the daily, it was a pretty choppy week. That said, we did get a higher high *and *higher low based on 5 bar swing pattern. It also looks like there is a bear flag/ascending triangle type pattern unfolding. I just put some rough lines to highlight it, that would be a downward continuation pattern.




4 hourly to show the fib retrace from high => low. Even though I was bearish on the action on this chart last weekend, we held the 0.236 retrace and got to within a whisker of the 0.382 retrace at 5483. If you're bearish then 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618 retraces are all potential resistance to scale in into some shorts or offload longs into rallies.




Lastly the hourly, with trendlines that I've been drawing on the chart connecting swing highs/lows as they appear. These have been amazing at containing price action on touches, so I keep watching them.




Oh...as a bonus comment, I won't post the chart but the SPX has made it to 0.5 retrace of the crash. So that's a little relative strength indicator, we only made it to 0.382 in the same swing, much weaker.


----------



## IFocus (12 April 2020)

IB that rising triangle looks gearish


----------



## hja (13 April 2020)

IFocus said:


> IB that rising triangle looks gearish



The XJO, XAO, TPM, BHP, CIM... have that look to them. What is the chart above (3rd from the bottom)) with the bearish triangle?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (13 April 2020)

hja said:


> The XJO, XAO, TPM, BHP, CIM... have that look to them. What is the chart above (3rd from the bottom)) with the bearish triangle?




It's a CFD tracking the SPI futures.



IFocus said:


> IB that rising triangle looks gearish




That's why I labelled it as a downward continuation pattern


----------



## IFocus (13 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> It's a CFD tracking the SPI futures.
> 
> 
> 
> That's why I labelled it as a downward continuation pattern




Good point didn't read the print I will try harder in future


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 April 2020)

Finally made it to the 0.382 retrace at 5483 on my chart.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (15 April 2020)

Still going up, but still going up on the wrong side of these trend-lines...

Hourly chart, the three arrows indicate the overnight action where we rejected.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (15 April 2020)

1 min chart, rejected the trendline again this morning after the open, breaking down here


----------



## Logique (16 April 2020)

Good stuff IB. It's climbing that 'Wall of Worry' isn't it, an engrossing battle of the Bulls and Bears atm


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 April 2020)

Quick 1min chart before the open,




after I posted the breakdown chart above, we didn't push strongly until the US session opened.

Now trading below last weeks close and opening the possibility of a down week.

We could be down on our way to test the March close again?


----------



## PZ99 (16 April 2020)

Over the next 3 hours, we'll get to see how much of last nights' dinner hits the blades


----------



## lindsayf (16 April 2020)

Looking like it might be time to squeeze a few bulls.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 April 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Over the next 3 hours, we'll get to see how much of last nights' dinner hits the blades
> 
> View attachment 102321




It'll only be bad if the numbers are worse than the market has expected.

My past experience has been that those numbers tend to affect the AUD rate much more than the equity markets...maybe the XJO participants are better forecasters and less subject to shocks? What do you think?


----------



## PZ99 (16 April 2020)

When I see the expected participation rate in March at 65.9% from a previous 66% I feel a stocktake on toilet paper is imminent


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 April 2020)

PZ99 said:


> When I see the expected participation rate in March at 65.9% from a previous 66% I feel a stocktake on toilet paper is imminent




Nah I don't mean, whatever crappy expectations that Bloomberg reports as analyst consensus before the numbers come out.

I mean, what does the market pricing imply in terms of expectations from participants. Analyst expectations have no money behind them.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 April 2020)

PZ99 said:


> When I see the expected participation rate in March at 65.9% from a previous 66% I feel a stocktake on toilet paper is imminent




Let me rephrase.

If the market is pricing 50% participation, and it comes out as 55%, then the natural reaction will be price up, not down, even though that is a terrible number...


----------



## PZ99 (16 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Let me rephrase.
> 
> If the market is pricing 50% participation, and it comes out as 55%, then the natural reaction will be price up, not down, even though that is a terrible number...



Agreed. However I just find it hard to believe the rate would go down by just 0.1% in March but as you say, the expectations are crappy at best and unpredictable at worst.


----------



## PZ99 (16 April 2020)

XAO



66% and 5.2% unemployment. Oh well, reel in the lifeboat


----------



## qldfrog (16 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Let me rephrase.
> 
> If the market is pricing 50% participation, and it comes out as 55%, then the natural reaction will be price up, not down, even though that is a terrible number...



Yes was confusing initially..But yes it is sadly mostly a psychological game
You are dying tomorrow: down, but your ex wife lover dies tonight Up 
There were some market gains due to comparative impact of the virus...Psychology is amazing


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 April 2020)

Well, we spent the whole day since open retracing (fast at first, then slowly once the unemployment numbers came out) back up to the breakdown I posted last night (green line on below chart).

No sellers into the closing auction or anything too bearish. Relatively quiet day and the ASX VIX is only trading ~32, fairly chill compared to recent history and realised vol, volatility targeting funds using ASX VIX as their input may be ~50% long here (assuming a target vol of 15).

This new trendline created off the two magnifying glass lows seems like it might be holding on the 15 min chart


----------



## lindsayf (16 April 2020)

lindsayf said:


> Looking like it might be time to squeeze a few bulls.
> 
> View attachment 102322



Bulls not really being squeezed, again.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 April 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Agreed. However I just find it hard to believe the rate would go down by just 0.1% in March but as you say, the expectations are crappy at best and unpredictable at worst.




This one is for @PZ99 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...loyment-rate-barely-rose-coronavirus/12154954


----------



## PZ99 (17 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> This one is for @PZ99
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...loyment-rate-barely-rose-coronavirus/12154954



Thanks, saw that earlier: first two weeks of March.

Curiously, the Citi economist says the unemployment rate might peak at 8.4%


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 April 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Thanks, saw that earlier: first two weeks of March.
> 
> Curiously, the Citi economist says the unemployment rate might peak at 8.4%




I get the feeling that the 8.4% ballpark is what the market is currently pricing in, I think any signs it will be going higher than that could elicit quite a painful reaction.


----------



## PZ99 (17 April 2020)

So I guess the Govt might set a date for unwinding restrictions somewhere near the next report to offset such a reaction?


----------



## Logique (17 April 2020)

There's a squeeze on, no doubt. If you go searching for it, there's any amount of opinion for a V-shaped recovery, as occurred post SARS in 2003.

So just what is the "smart money" up to? They're doing a good job of keeping ordinary punters on the sideline.  But somebody is buying, the market indices show it, the XAO up 2.5% this morning.

i) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/bar...et-is-going-to-come-ripping-back-quickly.html
_*The stock market is going to come ripping back quickly, says global investor Barry Sternlicht*_
MAR 13 2020 _..He added that he sees a “V-shaped” bounce for the market, meaning a quick down and a quick back up.._

ii) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...overy-virus-hit-chinese-economy/#.XpkGB8hMTro
_*IMF chief expects China to bounce back with quick, V-shaped recovery*
..IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement that the “most likely scenario we now view is a V-shaped impact,” as factories in China gear up to make up for lost time and warehouses are re-supplied.._


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 April 2020)

Messy 15 min chart




Seems that last night there was some news out of the US about Gileads drug remdesivir is "working", plus random words from Trump == big pump. New highs for this retracement.


----------



## Logique (17 April 2020)

Apropos of which, as you mention IB:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
_*Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug *[Remdesivir]* suggests patients are responding to treatment  *_APRIL 16, 2020 - By ADAM FEUERSTEIN @adamfeuerstein and MATTHEW HERPER @matthewherper

Remdesivir is a nucleotide (adenosine) analogue, which inserts into viral RNA chains


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 April 2020)

Was just drawing random lines on the hourly chart and noticed this




breakout? or retrace to bottom?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 April 2020)

ok, ok, I know this chart is starting to develop a lot of lines but nonetheless. Extending the line from the breakdown pattern I posted in post #3248, looks like it was still in play. I made it thick/red to stand out from the other lines.

Additionally, the post 4PM close has ended as a rejection of the trend line, again.

We continue the pattern of going up on the wrong side of the trend lines.


----------



## Cam019 (17 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Was just drawing random lines on the hourly chart and noticed this
> 
> View attachment 102361
> 
> ...



The latter, for a start.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (20 April 2020)

Forgot to do the weekly check-in on the weekends, do a quickie now before the market opens:

Monthly chart not a lot to report, aside from per last weekend update, the last completed monthly ATR was 494 points, the range for this month is now exceeding that at 550 points.

Weekly, last week was another up week, but on much lower range. We still closed the week above the December 2018 lows. Bulls couldn't muster the strength to test the weekly close from the 2nd week of March and as you can see we ended not far from where we started.




Daily, still making higher highs on five bar swing pattern, no higher low last week. That downward continuation pattern seems to becoming more pronounced and less like a bullish consolidation.




4 hourly, as you can see no meaningful move in intraday action for last week, just chopping around the 0.382.


----------



## lindsayf (20 April 2020)

Looking like a classic rising wedge now...daily ASX200 CFD


----------



## InsvestoBoy (20 April 2020)

A couple of different hourly chart views




The channel from post #3269


InsvestoBoy said:


> Was just drawing random lines on the hourly chart and noticed this
> 
> View attachment 102361
> 
> ...


----------



## InsvestoBoy (21 April 2020)

Well, I had been watching this trendline that I posted last night since early April, wondering if it was a silly line that was too wide off two swing lows that were too close together.

Updated hourly with that line re-formatted to highlight in red/thick:




was pretty much exactly where the market bounced in the overnight session.

Looks like the market is still deciding whether April will be an up month, going to be an interesting session today.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (21 April 2020)

Boring. 

I thought today was going to be fun.

Hourly chart, you can see we broke down a bit from where we were this morning...



Maybe the overnight session will make up for it.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (22 April 2020)

Well that was certainly a fun looking overnight session




back below the March close now.


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 April 2020)

beautiful rotation in the front month cfd for Sp200 (XJO)

a few false positives in the indicators ...yaget that !


----------



## Joules MM1 (22 April 2020)

in the play book of "how to spot intent"


----------



## InsvestoBoy (23 April 2020)

Chart snapshot before the open




Back above the March close,  below last weeks close.


----------



## lindsayf (23 April 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> beautiful rotation in the front month cfd for Sp200 (XJO)
> 
> a few false positives in the indicators ...yaget that !



Please elaborate


----------



## InsvestoBoy (23 April 2020)

Kind of a critical juncture here on the hourly chart.


----------



## fiftyeight (23 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Kind of a critical juncture here on the hourly chart.
> 
> View attachment 102577




Not sure it is high on Trump's list though?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (24 April 2020)

anyone looking at this chart and thinking to themselves *this is super bullish* ??


----------



## InsvestoBoy (24 April 2020)

Just noticed there is a double inside bar on the daily...

not that the last one was so powerful or anything.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> anyone looking at this chart and thinking to themselves *this is super bullish* ??
> 
> View attachment 102591




well, shows how much I know, we chopped our way up from this post, then smashed into todays open back to the same spot and dip buyers anonymous have been buying all day




double inside bar broke out to the upside on Friday night and so far the pattern is holding, could result in an explosive (relative to the recent low vol chop) up move shortly.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 April 2020)

The trendline below (see magnifying glass icons) was drawn connecting the April 22 lows with April 23 lows and has been the "going up on the wrong side of the trendline" line since then.

Seems like there was a morning ramp and that someone was waiting at the line to sell quite a big chunk, below is 15 min chart




dip buyers anonymous, where are you


----------



## MrChow (29 April 2020)

It's near impossible for me to see how the markets won't end up lower during the May-October period.   Just about everything would have to go right to even make a small gain given this historically quick rally has priced in a near perfect recovery in the real world when there are so many risk factors still in play.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 April 2020)

MrChow said:


> It's near impossible for me to see how the markets won't end up lower during the May-October period.



I'm thinking much the same. If you're going to buy an index fund etc well then there's probably going to be a better time to buy than now.

Individual stocks could still produce a profit however if they've got a strong business etc.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 April 2020)

Dip buyers did come in not too long after I posted and slowly dragged the price up higher than the ASX open but looks like it sold off from there in the US session.

New trendline connecting 27th and 28th Apr lows caught it


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 April 2020)

Funny how perceptions work...watching this move and I'm thinking hoo boy this is a big buy 



then I'm thinking hang on, this isn't even a hundred points!


----------



## InsvestoBoy (30 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> anyone looking at this chart and thinking to themselves *this is super bullish* ??
> 
> View attachment 102591




shows how much I know


----------



## InsvestoBoy (30 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Well, I had been watching this trendline that I posted last night since early April, wondering if it was a silly line that was too wide off two swing lows that were too close together.
> 
> Updated hourly with that line re-formatted to highlight in red/thick:
> 
> ...




Looks like this line will be back in play this morning:



probably a good spot for the market to react to the ANZ profit numbers...


----------



## qldfrog (30 April 2020)

With ANZ postponing dividend announcements, would be a cheeky move to go bull today


----------



## PZ99 (30 April 2020)

What a bad day for that announcement considering the overnight gains.

Could've reached the stars instead of nursing the scars.


----------



## qldfrog (30 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> With ANZ postponing dividend announcements, would be a cheeky move to go bull today



up it goes anyway, now reaching the level of oct 2017(2.5y ago);
Capital raising and div cuts everywhere: there is looking forward and there is dreaming....


----------



## flightcrank (30 April 2020)

Hey guys the impact of the corona virus is way worse than the GFC. profits are tumbling down everywhere. LETS RALLY UP!


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 May 2020)

looks like the longs got cleared out last night, every single time the market gets on the "right" side of a bull line, it rejects, usually quite hard


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 May 2020)

Bottom of this channel


----------



## peter2 (1 May 2020)

I love the smell of fear in the morning as I see the days activity on the ASX. Yes, I'm happy. I'm pleased to see a dose of reality finally hit the market. There should be more of it in the coming days/weeks. This will make our index bumble along the bottom and this bumbling will make a great base pattern from which our market can rally strongly.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 May 2020)

peter2 said:


> I love the smell of fear in the morning
> 
> ... it will make a great base pattern from which our market can rally strongly.



Robert Duvall

& after a few days, will it "smell like victory"?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 May 2020)

1 min chart showing the days action with gold priced in AUD overlaid




you can see gold was doing it's job going in the opposite direction of the market until about 15:00.

Those highly correlated liquidations of uncorrelated asset classes are what we saw all over March.

Someone is dumping liquid assets, de-risking their entire portfolio, irregardless of price. A rush for the exits, via whatever liquidity is in the book.

I hold GSBE47 which seemed to remain bid at least.


----------



## MrChow (1 May 2020)

Big boys taking a lot off the table today, ASX200 -5%.

- May to October historically loses 4 out of 10 years on average
- Historically Paced Rally in the lead up priced for a smooth recovery
- Trump Tariff Threat on China
- Friday Risk Off
- Capital Loss Selling sneaking in before June EOFY.


----------



## Modest (1 May 2020)

Downside target 4900


----------



## flightcrank (2 May 2020)

lets hope were at the top of a dead cat bounce. and the market crashes and burns from here. There a few sharks in the water ready to strike !


----------



## fiftyeight (2 May 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> This BEAR wont finish me off or let me go, just keeps playing with his food
> 
> View attachment 102054




Nibble nibble nibble, this BEAR still wont let me go.

Yesterdays action was entertaining, but all it has done is take things back the middle of the Keltner Channel.

If I am keeping the hopium alive, it is a 5% move, closed below 5300, lower 1/4 of the channel and as @InsvestoBoy pointed out gold joined the party later in the day.


----------



## bohn (2 May 2020)

flightcrank said:


> and the market crashes and burns from here




Sorry to hear you missed out on the buying opportunities in late March.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (2 May 2020)

just an update of that 1 min chart with gold in AUD overlaid


----------



## fiftyeight (2 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> just an update of that 1 min chart with gold in AUD overlaid
> 
> View attachment 103174




After hours dont count


----------



## flightcrank (3 May 2020)

bohn said:


> Sorry to hear you missed out on the buying opportunities in late March.



 i did buy. but in a volatile market its a good idea to keep some in reserve for further falls. sounds like you lost some money and are bitter about it. thats the game bud.


----------



## bohn (3 May 2020)

flightcrank said:


> and the market crashes and burns from here




What are you seeing to cause the markets to crash and burn from here, other than getting back some missed profits?


----------



## flightcrank (3 May 2020)

bohn said:


> What are you seeing to cause the markets to crash and burn from here, other than getting back some missed profits?



probably a once in a century global pandemic, the likes of which the modern world economy has never seen.

whether they drop further or slowly rise. You can only be a winner in this market over the long term. Missed profits ? I think not.


----------



## bohn (3 May 2020)

flightcrank said:


> probably a once in a century global pandemic, the likes of which the modern world economy has never seen.




The market knows about this. Trump's tweet re tariffs on Friday caused some uncertainty - that was new news. The virus isn't new news, and what's more, we will be re-opening things soon. Other countries are talking of re-opening as well. That is good for the markets, not a 'crash and burn' response.


----------



## flightcrank (3 May 2020)

bohn said:


> That is good for the markets, not a 'crash and burn' response.




its hard to 'price in' something that has never really happened before. But like i said, whether its crashes further or slowly recovers. You can only win over the long term in this market. I hope it crashes and burns. There are allot of sharks that can see the market thrashing about the surface waiting to strike. 

Its not about missing the march lows in one lump sum. Open your eyes, there still low mate. Ive just been averaging in the whole time. but at the first sign of a further crash. You have to be ready to take some bigger bites !


----------



## Logique (3 May 2020)

It won't be a bottom until the big boys have gotten on (fundies incl. berkshire). They can read read a chart and so can I.  Telling tales out of school, sorry Warren


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 May 2020)

bohn said:


> The market knows about this. Trump's tweet re tariffs on Friday caused some uncertainty - that was new news. The virus isn't new news, and what's more, we will be re-opening things soon. Other countries are talking of re-opening as well.



In the case of the US it would be a brave call to say that they really will be re-opening anytime soon. Trying to yes, actually doing it is another matter entirely given they haven't even contained the virus yet.

Problem for Australia being that regardless of how well our re-opening, economic or stock market goes, we're going to be dragged down if others sink and in the context of the market the US in particular is a major influence. 

I'm not predicting a fall there, but I'm not predicting good news either - my point is that nothing's really certain at the moment and the usual approach taken by most of extrapolating the recent past doesn't work under current circumstances.


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not predicting a fall there, but I'm not predicting good news either - my point is that nothing's really certain at the moment and the usual approach taken by most of extrapolating the recent past doesn't work under current circumstances.



I think that is the whole point at the moment, with shares I personally am only buying those that aren't influenced by overseas income, I'm not saying they wont be affected, but over the long term Australia is on an upward trajectory most other Countries aren't.
To expand on that Australia is a growing Country, most other Countries are near full capacity, that is why most migration is inward not outward.
As we 'fill up', our lifestyle will move toward the norm, unfortunately the media is cheering it on and the rest are too busy sucking on it to care.
So as our population increases, so will our rubbish and our banking, so in for a penny in for a pound.


----------



## Roller_1 (13 May 2020)

What is everyone's short term view on the asx200? (CMC CFD)

I think if we get back below 5340 here soon, we could visit 5210ish pretty quick


----------



## PZ99 (13 May 2020)

Expectations for tomorrow... 8.3% unemployment. This popcorn consumer expects (probably incorrectly like last time) a wild swing one way or another


----------



## PZ99 (14 May 2020)

Unemployment 6.2% - that's good yes ?


----------



## qldfrog (14 May 2020)

if ASX goes down it means it is a good news, nowadays, market goes up on bad news as the key factor has become government stimulus, not economic factors


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Unemployment 6.2% - that's good yes ?




I really hate the way the ABS and other countries report "unemployment".

If you just completely give up on looking for a job and "exit" the workforce, then you aren't counted as unemployed.

How dumb is that?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-14/unemployment-jobs-abs-april-recession/12247154



> Callam Pickering, the Asia-Pacific economist at jobs website Indeed, said if there were jobs for people to look for, encouraging participation, unemployment would be closer to the Reserve Bank and Treasury forecast of 10 per cent.
> 
> "Had the size of the labour force held steady, with everyone losing employment shifting to unemployment, then the unemployment rate would have spiked to 9.6 per cent," he said.






> Underemployment — those with a job who wanted more hours of work — surged by more than 600,000 to 1.8 million people, taking the rate to a record high of 13.7 per cent, up nearly 5 per cent in just a month.
> 
> Underutilisation, which adds unemployment and underemployment together, also jumped to a record high of 19.9 per cent.




If you calculate unemployment as 9.6%, which it should be because those people are *not employed* regardless of whether they are "in the labour force" or not and add underemployment, that is *underutilisation of 23.3%*.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> if ASX goes down it means it is a good news, nowadays, market goes up on bad news as the key factor has become government stimulus, not economic factors




Any actual evidence for this?

The ASX isn't really going up or down a lot these days, but I don't see it going up on bad news and going down on bad news.

As I have mentioned before, it's about surprises relative to participants pricing models, be they implicit or explicit. If there is bad news, but it isn't as bad as participants had priced, then that is marginally good news and you should expect prices to rise.

*Nothing to do with Government "stimulus".*


----------



## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

On today's unemployment number ... the job  keeper numbers are masking what is the actual number.

Obviously we hope, we get past this virus via being in a great place infection wise. How many on job keeper are sent to job seeker and unemployed remains to be seen. 

Market expected 8.2% but the number, was 6.2%.

What is of note is the participation rate fell 2.5% to 63.5% from 66% and as its a fraction it also understated the actual unemployment number by around 3.8% ....  

USA version of this even worse. Market cant make its mind if it was, good or bad.  

We do have a glimmer of hope if we can get zero for a few weeks and then the numbers and impacts will become interesting. USA, well it and the UK need to start again. The rapid test seems not to work and give 33-48% false negatives ... which is just scary. You get tested, your told your safe and instead your an infected person.

Its going to be a long 2020 and 2021.


----------



## Country Lad (14 May 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Unemployment 6.2% - that's good yes ?



The number is meaningless actually. It measures the participation rate so all those who are not actively looking for work are not counted.  Let's face it, in this climate what is the point in looking for work?
Actual unemployed number is way higher.


----------



## PZ99 (14 May 2020)

It was measured that way last time and the time before. If this number was 10% people would be saying the "real" number was 20% or whatever. No point in changing the factors if you want to compare apples with apples.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> On today's unemployment number ... the job keeper numbers are masking what is the actual number.



I think the number's so far from expectations and "real" reality that it won't be seen as credible by many.

If someone's doing no actual work and their "wages" are being paid by the government then that looks like unemployment to me. That someone decided to call it Job Keeper might change it in a statistical sense but not in the real world. They're not working.

The use of such technicalities erodes public confidence in government and the information it releases when it's to the point that the distortion is blatantly obvious.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

PZ99 said:


> No point in changing the factors if you want to compare apples with apples.




The point is that if you don't adjust for participation, it *isn't *apples to apples.

If you followed the US unemployment figures since the GFC, it seemed to be getting better and better. But each month, the BLS was kicking people out of the "workforce", i.e. participation was going down. 

I don't care about what some statistician wants to model as "pure" numbers for their charts and reports. I care about reality on the ground. To me it doesn't matter if someone is looking for work or not. If they are not working, they are unemployed.


----------



## PZ99 (14 May 2020)

I disagree with that last paragraph. If people don't NEED to work they shouldn't be considered as unemployed. It says zip about the state of the economy and is therefore a pointless indicator.

I find it very hard to believe the ABS would survey 50,000 people every month about their employment for the sake of spurious reporting.

If people want to change how it's measured, go right ahead. If their alternative modelling is better than the current one then presumably the ABS would adopt it. Why wouldn't they ?

But they haven't changed it for more than 20 years. Maybe they know something about labour force surveys that we don't ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> If they are not working, they are unemployed.



I think a distinction needs to be made as to the detail there.

If someone is not working then they are unemployed in a literal sense that is true.

Suppose though that someone has a few $ million in liquid assets and earns an above average income through their investments in shares, property etc plus a bit of active trading.

Would you seriously count them as unemployed? That they aren't working is because they've no need to not because nobody wants to employ them - odds are they could get a job pretty easily if the money's self-made (as distinct from inherited or won the lottery etc) since they must have some ability at something to have become wealthy by their own means.

On the other hand, well government handing employers money to pay people to not only be unproductive but to not even turn up to work, at all, is probably the most obvious distortion of the statistics ever. That's not to say it's necessarily a bad idea, but if someone's sitting at home and has done zero work for their employer for the past few weeks, and hasn't been paid a cent at their employer's expense but is instead being paid by government, then it's clutching at technicalities to say that isn't unemployment.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

PZ99 said:


> I disagree with that last paragraph. If people don't NEED to work they shouldn't be considered as unemployed. It says zip about the state of the economy and is therefore a pointless indicator.




huhhhh?

You think participation going down is from a bunch of people not needing to work?

The vast majority of participation going down is from people who *have given up* on finding work. The ABS very usefully calls this "hidden unemployment".

To me, employment is a simple measure: how many people are working.
Unemployment is therefore just as simply the inverse, how many people are not.

Regardless of how many people the ABS feels deserve to be in the "work force".



> I find it very hard to believe the ABS would survey 50,000 people every month about their employment for the sake of spurious reporting.




Gee you're right, there is no way the Government would want to paint a rosy picture of the economy...



> If people want to change how it's measured, go right ahead. If their alternative modelling is better than the current one then presumably the ABS would adopt it. Why wouldn't they ?
> 
> But they haven't changed it for more than 20 years. Maybe they know something about labour force surveys that we don't ?




They follow the international standard, which as I said, I hate and think is dumb.

Participation matters. That's why as recently as Feb you simultaneously have the Prime Minister goofball and his Treasurer goofball on TV saying how great the economy is while wage growth continues to stink.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think a distinction needs to be made as to the detail there.
> 
> If someone is not working then they are unemployed in a literal sense that is true.
> 
> ...




heh is this a serious post?

489,800 people left the labour force in Q1 2020 and are thus not counted as unemployed. Half a million people.

How many of those am I worried about seriously counting as unemployed because they might be all people who suddenly became millionaires with property portfolios and quit their jobs?

Come on dude.


----------



## PZ99 (14 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> huhhhh?
> 
> You think participation going down is from a bunch of people not needing to work?



Why are you asking me this question when I didn't make that statement?



InsvestoBoy said:


> The vast majority of participation going down is from people who *have given up* on finding work. *The ABS very usefully calls this "hidden unemployment"*.



Yep, just like last time.




InsvestoBoy said:


> To me, employment is a simple measure: how many people are working.
> Unemployment is therefore just as simply the inverse, how many people are not.
> Regardless of how many people the ABS feels deserve to be in the "work force".



Sounds good to me.

Please explain why the ABS might reject this superior modelling when you submit it 



InsvestoBoy said:


> Gee you're right, there is no way the Government would want to paint a rosy picture of the economy...



Would you rather they said the economy was going down the toilet instead ?

Because that's pretty much how the Treasurer described it in parliament. 



InsvestoBoy said:


> They follow the international standard, which as I said, I hate and think is dumb.
> 
> Participation matters. That's why as recently as Feb you simultaneously have the Prime Minister goofball and his Treasurer goofball on TV saying how great the economy is while wage growth continues to stink.



Wage growth stinks because this country has been slipping further to the right on workers' rights for the last decade or more. When you have someone like Sussan Ley telling workers to hand back their last payrise before scabbing off the public purse you know you have a Govt that doesn't support wage growth - so it doesn't happen.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> How many of those am I worried about seriously counting as unemployed because they might be all people who suddenly became millionaires with property portfolios and quit their jobs?
> 
> Come on dude.




Nowhere did I state that I was referring to Q1 2020 or indeed any specific time.

The discussion was on the question of how to measure unemployment and I'm simply pointing out that there are many reasons why someone is not employed.

Having wealth is one reason why someone may choose to not work. It could be argued that they are unemployed, given that they are not employed, but it's not due to inability to find work.

Having wealth doesn't have to be $ millions. It could be as simple as having a husband / wife with a stable job and deciding to stay home and play with the kids or whatever. Not employed but not looking for work at least until the COVID-19 issue is over.

Anyone over 50 with modest assets may have simply concluded that searching for work is a waste of time and money since the odds of success are, depending on their skills and industry, likely to be minimal under current circumstances. So they get by on $25K a year from their investments (etc) and just live happily.

Running a business is another such reason. If you're a sole trader then you don't have an employer, at least not in a legal sense, so does that make you technically unemployed? There's a lot of people in that situation, they are not employed but nobody would seriously count them as unemployed if their business activities are generating an income.

Now what if that business has slumped? Are they now unemployed on account of the fact that the business no longer generates an income at least equal to the minimum wage?

And so on. The basic issue is that the government's definition is essentially a 1950's one that relied on the notion that virtually all jobs were full time and involved working for an employer in a fairly rigid manner. Either you had a job or you didn't, black and white, and having any job meant you could live reasonably. That world is long gone.

In practice I know 4 people currently out of work and not one of them is counted in official statistics so far as I'm aware.

One runs a business but work has almost completely dried up to the point they're effectively shut.

Two have a preference to work but no pressing need to do so. One's looking after their kids and the other's pursuing other things until they perceive it's time to go and look for another job.

One only very recently became unemployed.

None of them are on welfare so presumably wouldn't be included in any official statistics.

Now that's just one person (me) who knows 4 others who are out of work but not in the official statistics for various reasons. They won't be the only 4 that's for sure, the real number's a lot larger than 6.2%


----------



## qldfrog (14 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Any actual evidence for this?
> 
> The ASX isn't really going up or down a lot these days, but I don't see it going up on bad news and going down on bad news.
> 
> ...



"The ASX isn't really going up or down a lot these days" yesterday 1.8% variation in a day?: today similar.....
What can I say @InsvestoBoy,  post GFC generation no doubt..
This is NOT normality by any standard, unemployment rising means stock market boost in the US..why if not because this  means more gov money..under a form or another used to prop the market


----------



## InsvestoBoy (15 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> "The ASX isn't really going up or down a lot these days" yesterday 1.8% variation in a day?: today similar.....
> What can I say @InsvestoBoy,  post GFC generation no doubt..




What I mean is we have been stuck in a >10% range since April started. If you just watch the close price every day then yeah it looks like 1.8%, if you are watching the overnight move and then from the open you can see the market is not doing a whole lot during trading hours.



> This is NOT normality by any standard, unemployment rising means stock market boost in the US..why if not because this  means more gov money..under a form or another used to prop the market




No. It just means that the unemployment number was not as bad as the market participants who care about unemployment had priced.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 May 2020)

At an international level I see markets now as being in a situation much like they were three months ago just before the big fall.

The US has a million active COVID-19 cases and rising, and now they're going to open things up. We're about to witness an historic event there - it's either going to be another shutdown or realistically the US is looking at a million deaths very likely, indeed there's already 86,000 dead in that country from the virus which makes it bigger than most wars etc.

Meanwhile there are increasing reports from real world businesses, for example airlines, which talk in terms of it being many years before there's a real recovery. One I spotted suggested 2023 could be back to 2019 levels if everything goes well. That is, of course, the best case.

Meanwhile we've got a stock market rally which is driven by relatively few stocks.

The term which comes to mind here in describing the action of the market is "denial".


----------



## Country Lad (11 June 2020)

Oops down 3%


----------



## gartley (30 July 2020)

This thing ran out of steam mid June and has really struggled up since. I think it will truncate here with a 5th wave failure to finally roll over to end the ABC upward rally from the March low. (At least for some weeks anyway)


----------



## moXJO (11 August 2020)

Been a bit quiet here. I feel like a lot of big news the next couple of months will shake things up.


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

It's an absolute bloodbath. Worst day since march. Expect political/fed/ppt/an act of god action if it continues.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

over9k said:


> It's an absolute bloodbath. Worst day since march. Expect political/fed/ppt/an act of god action if it continues.




Are you suggesting that God watches (and intervenes in) the stock market?


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> Are you suggesting that God watches (and intervenes in) the stock market?



Yes, he waits for me to buy or sell and then makes the market do the complete opposite of whatever I was expecting it to do.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Yes, he waits for me to buy or sell and then makes the market do the complete opposite of whatever I was expecting it to do.




I hate to disappoint you but I have it on good authority that God is a left-handed woman. I think I bought a pastry from her once at the local art show. She didn't seem too interested in anything to be honest.


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

Jokes aside, when not even gold is spared, then the politicians' portfolios are going to be effected. This is the kind of thing that spooks them into action. It's pure self interest on their behalf obviously, but at least the rest of us get saved as well.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

I'm not joking. Do you think God cares about your portfolio, of those of politicians?

You invoked your God. Did you do so in Jest?


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

I can't tell if I'm being messed with or not.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> Do you think God cares about your portfolio, of those of politicians?



Depends whether or not God shorted the index first..... 

Seriously, well I'm just following my system which is purely number crunching based and FWIW I bought BBOZ on Monday but I also hold a long S&P500 ETF. Taking leverage of BBOZ into account they're of equal value. 

Still holding some direct ASX listed shares but a lot of sells in the past few days has diminished the portfolio considerably.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Depends whether or not God shorted the index first.....
> 
> Seriously, well I'm just following my system which is purely number crunching based and FWIW I bought BBOZ on Monday but I also hold a long S&P500 ETF. Taking leverage of BBOZ into account they're of equal value.
> 
> Still holding some direct ASX listed shares but a lot of sells in the past few days has diminished the portfolio considerably.




I find it hard to read BBOZ as a turn around from the chart. Did you have a trigger to buy? Perhaps you have discussed this elsewhere.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

over9k said:


> I can't tell if I'm being messed with or not.




I know I'm being messed with every day I wake up.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

Above 6100 for the XAO is within the current channel.


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

The current channel has, at least this week, had between 1.5% & 3% swings per DAY though.

C'mon, this is not normal.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 September 2020)

I'm down about 4%.
There is so much money sloshing around, I can't see it falling too far or for too long.


----------



## tinhat (4 September 2020)

over9k said:


> The current channel has, at least this week, had between 1.5% & 3% swings per DAY though.
> 
> C'mon, this is not normal.



I very crudely added the lines onto the chart below a few days ago. Tradingview.com saves any drawings you make on your charts until you delete them. The XAO data is delayed by about 30 mins I believe. Given where resistance is sitting (orange line) a nice little shake out is not unexpected.




I sold down some of my portfolio yesterday. I wish I sold more now. I am down 4% today. Even if we don't see a proper correction before then, I think we will at least continue to see volatility leading up to the November USA presidential election.

Tradingview allows you to save one chart template for a free account. Following on from this morning's discussion you will be pleased to note the title I have saved my template as "quis ut deus".


----------



## Joules MM1 (4 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> I very crudely added the lines onto the chart below a few days ago. Tradingview.com saves any drawings you make on your charts until you delete them. The XAO data is delayed by about 30 mins I believe. Given where resistance is sitting (orange line) a nice little shake out is not unexpected.
> 
> View attachment 108666
> 
> ...





that's commitment for ya


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I'm down about 4%.
> There is so much money sloshing around, I can't see it falling too far or for too long.



Yeah I'm the same (4.01%).

KGN's dropped over 10% though. Last time it did this, it rebounded 11% literally the next day. Food for thought.


----------



## peter2 (4 September 2020)

Afternoon scan show lots of bullish bars today. Even though there were lots of low open prices, many have been in demand at the lower prices and have ended up on the day.


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## Smurf1976 (5 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> I find it hard to read BBOZ as a turn around from the chart. Did you have a trigger to buy? Perhaps you have discussed this elsewhere.



In short we have our own indicators.

As agreed with two others who were involved developing the system I can't disclose exact details of how it functions but as a series of dot points:

*Intended to work with stocks only. That said, a major index could be deemed to comply given that it is comprised of stocks the majority but not all of which would pass the fundamental criteria.

*Calculated after the close each day.

*The entire market is potentially included subject to each stock passing the filters.

*First filter is fundamentals - approximately 180 stocks on the ASX meet the criteria. In short they must have an actual business up and running and it needs to meet certain criteria.

*Second step is an analysis of recent trading. This generates a Buy / Hold / Sell signal. This is a number crunching exercise and generates a single figure as the output.

*Any Buy signal must pass a liquidity test in order to be actioned. This test looks at 12 months' of data.

Friday 14 August was the last trading day which was "normal" post-March 2020. After that a deterioration was observed centered on those mid-cap stocks which pass the fundamentals test. Buy signals dried up, and sell signals have now triggered for most of the mid cap stocks held.

Friday 28, analysed after the close, produced a clear Sell signal for the index. This was the trigger to buy BBOZ with position size taking into account its leverage. It is noted that there might be better ways to implement a short position - the focus has been on the system to generate the signals, BBOZ being simply a convenient way to action it noting that shorting the index is a very minor part of the overall approach which centers around directly held stocks.

A reduction in the number of large and small cap stocks held was triggered early this week. That is, Sell signals were triggered.

As of now:

13 stocks are held in addition to an S&P 500 ETF and BBOZ.

6 of the stocks held are large cap, 2 are mid cap, 5 are small cap.

2 stocks triggered a Sell signal today. This will be actioned on Monday. One is a large cap materials company, the other is a small cap IT company. Both of these trades were unsuccessful and the exit price should be close to the buy price with a minor profit or loss.

8 stocks triggered a buy signal today. 4 of these are already held so no action will be taken for those, 2 fail the liquidity test so no action, the other 2 will be bought on Monday.

*For information only and my comments are in no way a recommendation to buy or sell anything. There is no guarantee that my trades will be profitable. 
*


----------



## Knobby22 (7 September 2020)

To me the market has become boring and is in a waiting mode.
I can't see it doing much except tread water till early next year.

Once the US election and some real vaccine success occurs then maybe we'll see a bit of a move up but there is going to be a long slow deadening effect caused by the creation of  multiple zombie companies due to coronavirus.

It will be a stock pickers paradise for those able to read balance sheets.


----------



## peter2 (7 September 2020)

@Smurf1976  Thanks for sharing a bit more info re your investing strategy. I loved that post.

@Knobby22  I agree with you that the market will remain in this "zombie" state for quite a while. However I see it as a very tricky time for both tech traders and value investors.

Tech/chart traders may find that we have to start many more trades just to earn a profit. Letting a loss get bigger may erase those profits quickly.

Value investors, I just can't see them thinking that there's any value with stock prices as high as they are. If they didn't buy at the COVID lows in March then I can't see them buying anything now.


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## Smurf1976 (12 September 2020)

peter2 said:


> @Smurf1976 Thanks for sharing a bit more info re your investing strategy. I loved that post.



No worries, I'll post some more...... 

Currently holding shares in 12 companies (trading ASX listed shares only). 3 are large caps, 3 are mid cap, 6 are small cap.

At present levels 4 of those 12 are a Buy, two of them having an extremely strong signal there, 7 are a Hold and 1 triggered a Sell signal on Friday which will be actioned on Monday.

Still long the S&P 500 and short the ASX via ETF's.

As a bit more analysis, comparing the market leading up to August 14 versus the market over the past 4 weeks:

Prior to 14 August:

*Around 25 directly held shares with some minor fluctuation around that number. This was around 12 large cap, 8 mid cap, 5 small cap with some minor variance over time.

*Long the S&P 500 via an ETF

*Long the ASX via a fund

Since 14 August:

*Mid caps were exited first. Buy signals dried up and Sells triggered.

*ASX fund sold next and short position taken.

*Large caps then exited. Buy signals had already dried up, now Sells triggered.

*Nothing has changed regarding small caps and the S&P 500 ETF in terms of Buy / Sell triggers.

My point isn't so much about my trading as the underlying market. A change occurred mid-August that was quite noticeable and thus far it's still present.

In terms of my own trading though, well total account balance is presently down 1.27% from the all time high. Not ideal but could be worse.


----------



## peter2 (15 September 2020)

@Smurf1976  Thanks again. I'm curious and would like to know what did you see at Aug 14th that indicated a change in the market? 

The prior two weeks in the XAO were both up, XAO near new high (just below 6300). US hitting record highs.


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## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

peter2 said:


> @Smurf1976 Thanks again. I'm curious and would like to know what did you see at Aug 14th that indicated a change in the market?



Simply that an existing system started identifying fewer opportunities. That's the simplest way to put it really. 

Looking at individual stocks, and there's roughly 180 - 190 of them give or take a few which pass the fundamental screen, then simply the SELL triggers outnumbered the BUY triggers and roughly halved the number of stocks held. The mid-caps went first then the large.

Without detailing exactly how the numbers are being crunched, ultimately all of us have the same data and that's the actual trades occurring in the market. That's stating the obvious I suppose but perhaps worth pointing out - no matter what indicator or other technical approach anyone comes up with, ultimately they're just another way of analysing the same data. 

At the moment nothing's really changed, still bumbling along with ~12 stocks. The odd one being sold and the odd one being bought but overall nothing too exciting.


----------



## barney (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> the SELL triggers outnumbered the BUY triggers and roughly halved the number of stocks held. The mid-caps went first then the large.




Similar here Smurph ..... i only eye-ball price action with no scans but have had to let a few go for the same reason  .... Specs, not Mid-Caps etc for me but similar scenario.  Baked beans again this week


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 September 2020)

As an update to previous comments, things are looking slightly better.

Presently hold 15 stocks two of which were bought on Monday 28th.

Today, Tuesday 29th, buying two more due to BUY triggers based on Monday's trading. That brings it to 17 stocks held spread across large, mid and small caps. So the number of stocks held seems to be increasing again after having flat lined at 12 - 13 for a several weeks.

Given it's a strictly rules based number crunching system with zero tolerance and discretion, that means more stocks now meet the criteria although I'll sound a word of caution that the index itself, the XJO, has not given a buy signal only some individual stocks have. So the index short is still held despite owning an increasing number of individual stocks. That could be seen as "interesting" in some ways.......

My comments aren't a recommendation to buy or sell anything and are just my observations.


----------



## qldfrog (29 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As an update to previous comments, things are looking slightly better.
> 
> Presently hold 15 stocks two of which were bought on Monday 28th.
> 
> ...



For what it is worth,similar here with slow reentering in a bull mode for daily.been hit hard in the last 2 weeks


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 October 2020)

A new post-crash high for both the All Ords and ASX200 today.

What happens tomorrow, whether we stay above the previous highs or come back down, could be rather telling as to where it's heading longer term.


----------



## over9k (13 October 2020)

JNJ trial's failed - futures have flipped from green to red immediately. Tomorrow/tonight will be a red day.


----------



## bohn (13 October 2020)

over9k said:


> JNJ trial's failed



? 
The trial was paused from what I read (not 'failed'), and and this is incredibly common (especially in large trials). Sometimes they are only paused for a few days, sometimes longer. We will have to wait and see.


----------



## over9k (13 October 2020)

Either way, futures have flipped, so today's going to be bad.


----------



## peter2 (23 October 2020)

While Dr FF-Fly and I are shorting the QQQ and making out like bandits, I thought I'd look through the ASX top 50. I've been trading in the gutter for the past few months and I'm a bit out of touch with the top end of town.

Well, I need not have bothered. Our top 50 look terrible.  I could find only 8 that looked healthy.
*ALL, COH, FMG, GMG, JHX, MQG, SHL, WES.*
How is our index going up?

_Edit_:  Different story with the MIdCap 50. Lots of good up trends here.


----------



## peter2 (1 February 2021)

Oh, come on. I wanted a bigger dip than this!  
I've got a stack of stocks I'd be happy to buy if the price was a little lower. The RR has to be better than this.


----------



## over9k (1 February 2021)

U.S futures are looking good, that's why - the market obviously reckons this gamestop etc stuff is in the rear view mirror. But it thought that last thursday and then friday was a massacre.

If it doesn't happen tonight, expect armageddon tomorrow. I bought AMC & GME simply as hedges on account of the whole rest of the market getting smashed because of them.


----------



## peter2 (1 February 2021)

Thanks, I keep the charts close.  
The price of $GME remains surprisingly high. I'm short XRT waiting for the $GME bubble to burst. This week should be interesting.


----------



## gartley (1 February 2021)

over9k said:


> U.S futures are looking good
> 
> 
> over9k said:
> ...






Close to setting up a projection of 3566


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2021)

Anyone knows if the rba is purchasing stocks, the XAO makes no sense today except if the RBA was involved.
One would have to be deranged to gamble on a local market rise before this night's action in the US imho


----------



## over9k (1 February 2021)

peter2 said:


> Thanks, I keep the charts close.
> The price of $GME remains surprisingly high. I'm short XRT waiting for the $GME bubble to burst. This week should be interesting.
> 
> View attachment 119409



Either way, here's my personal pot of madness:


----------



## Knobby22 (1 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Anyone knows if the rba is purchasing stocks, the XAO makes no sense today except if the RBA was involved.
> One would have to be deranged to gamble on a local market rise before this night's action in the US imho



No , it's just that the Australian economy has bounced back (unlike many other economies which are covid ravaged) and there is a lot of interest in our economy internationally as a safe place, hence the rising currency.

Also it is risk on for Super investors who will be switching out of cash.
Also it is a Monday, the ASX often rises Monday.

There is a lot of money about, hence inflation risk. Once we bring back the students and immigration the economy is going to be running hot.
Look at the latest sharp rises in the property sector for evidence.


----------



## over9k (1 February 2021)

Rubbish. AU has paralleled U.S almost constantly, including and especially the last week. The only days where it doesn't follow what USA did the night before is when there was no night before. You know, mondays.

On those days, traders look to U.S futures instead:





Here's your correlation:




And here's the u.s dollar vs everything, it's tanked against absolutely everything except the GBP last i checked:




AU doing relatively well has vanishingly little to do with AUD purchasing power at the moment. EVERYTHING is running against the USD. Or to be more specific, the USD is tanking. If it were just about AU, only the AUD would be up, and that's not what we see. Ergo, the cause can be found in the U.S.


If anything we should be tanking today on account of the security guard testing positive and the associated lockdowns in W.A as the mining industry being kicked in the nuts = armageddon for this country.

Instead, we see the opposite. 

If america sneezes, the world catches a cold. C'mon man, this is econ101 level stuff.


----------



## Knobby22 (1 February 2021)

Fair comment however:
1. The ASX isn't always lockstep with the USA.
2. Heaps of volume on the NASDAQ. Also lots of margin loans.


----------



## Joules MM1 (1 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Anyone knows if the rba is purchasing stocks, the XAO makes no sense today except if the RBA was involved.
> One would have to be deranged to gamble on a local market rise before this night's action in the US imho



mutual funds monday, first of the month
managers mixed tape ........

rba ? ......wut ?


----------



## gartley (1 February 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> No , it's just that the Australian economy has bounced back (unlike many other economies which are covid ravaged) and there is a lot of interest in our economy internationally as a safe place, hence the rising currency.
> 
> Also it is risk on for Super investors who will be switching out of cash.
> Also it is a Monday, the ASX often rises Monday.
> ...



The AUDUSD is just following the SPX (sometimes feels like It's all the same market)  and also rising on the back of USD weakness not because our economy is so great.....  
The markets just do their own thing and we just gotta stay in tune with them.


----------



## over9k (1 February 2021)

Yeah, the exchange rate run has really slaughtered my returns


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> mutual funds monday, first of the month
> managers mixed tape ........
> 
> rba ? ......wut ?



In that case, this should have happened last friday in oz, us market was not good friday, if it falls tonight asx is down tomorrow.
And no real neews that matter so if you are a gambler, gamble last friday, not today
Obviously us can jump back tonight and people say, told you so.but in term of odds, buying higher today on the asx than friday made no sense.anyway why do i want for it to make sense 
Very seriously, has the reserve bank of Australia started buying stocks?
BOJ, US  Feds are doing it and maybe EU reserve bank.not sure on the later.


----------



## Joules MM1 (2 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> In that case, this should have happened last friday in oz, us market was not good friday, if it falls tonight asx is down tomorrow.
> And no real neews that matter so if you are a gambler, gamble last friday, not today
> Obviously us can jump back tonight and people say, told you so.but in term of odds, buying higher today on the asx than friday made no sense.anyway why do i want for it to make sense
> Very seriously, has the reserve bank of Australia started buying stocks?
> BOJ, US  Feds are doing it and maybe EU reserve bank.not sure on the later.




always a challenge when your "reasoning" doesnt match what's transacting in the auction(s)


----------



## qldfrog (2 February 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> always a challenge when your "reasoning" doesnt match what's transacting in the auction(s)



Not really , the people who bought yesterday lost 2pc vs buying last friday
If you change your mind in 3 days without any fact change, that's not reasoning but gambling.
Anyone can gamble.
And statistically you will get screwed if you behave that way in the long term 😊


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 May 2021)

XAO is down today quite a bit, last time I looked 1.9%. My SMSF ASX portfolio did better, should say didn't lose significantly as much. 

It's the only reason I look at the XAO, for a comparo.

gg


----------



## peter2 (2 November 2021)

I'm having a tough time identifying good risk/reward opportunities in the XAO at the moment.  If you don't already have a stack of lithium stocks then you're too late now. Otherwise, pickings are slim.

This is normally a bullish time for stocks leading into Christmas. I'm bullish but there's not many setting up for me. I'm not going to gamble on third rate stocks and risk the good start I've made in the current FY.

Hells, bells, looks like I might have to do some gardening and get some sunshine.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> I'm having a tough time identifying good risk/reward opportunities in the XAO at the moment.  If you don't already have a stack of lithium stocks then you're too late now. Otherwise, pickings are slim.
> 
> This is normally a bullish time for stocks leading into Christmas. I'm bullish but there's not many setting up for me. I'm not going to gamble on third rate stocks and risk the good start I've made in the current FY.
> 
> Hells, bells, looks like I might have to do some gardening and get some sunshine.



Thanks @peter2 . 

Today as I was following the markets, I was thinking as you were back in November 2021. 

The XAO may continue to climb. I am set in it, and will continue to review. I will not be a buyer though as I see no value nor profit at present prices. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2022)

Just a quick squizz at my SMSF portfolio.

It looks as if it will be in the immortal words taught on the first day at the Police Academy.

"Nothing to see here ladies and gents, move on."

Oilers and Gold up. 

Others flat or down.

It looks as if it will be a 12.30am alarm wakeup for me tomorrow am to follow New Yawk.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Oilers and Gold up.
> 
> Others flat or down.
> 
> gg





You will know that global food prices are soaring.
You will also know that we have shortages of everything.

In fact veteran Goldman Sachs commodities analyst, Jeff Currie, made this statement this week.


> *“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this. This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if its oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminium, you name it we’re out of it.”*


----------



## Sean K (14 February 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> You will know that global food prices are soaring.
> You will also know that we have shortages of everything.
> 
> In fact veteran Goldman Sachs commodities analyst, Jeff Currie, made this statement this week.




Commodities super cycle may have just begun.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2022)

I am always suspicious when I see a sea of green in the XAO. 

Who am I to argue though.

gg


----------



## peter2 (4 May 2022)

What's going on in this crazy market. All my favourite trading stocks are going down. I tried buying a couple of dips but have swallowed losses.  There's nothing much on my radar at the moment. The XAO would be much weaker but the banks are holding it up.

It seems patience is required now. Prices will eventually get to a level that will induce more demand. Waiting is hard.

_Edit:_ Prices in our fav commodities are falling, gold, silver, copper, zinc, nickel has settled. Even the huge prices paid for the recent *PLS* lithium auction didn't illicit any demand.


----------



## eskys (4 May 2022)

Only one night to wait and we will know the decision on interest rates tomorrow morning, Peter. Appears that everyone is waiting for this ......... lost my way few weeks ago, finding it difficult to trade, so did nothing. Two that seems to be holding on my watchlist are BXB and GNC, hold neither. Sold the latter yesterday, a quick pickup and dump, got away with some peanuts........trading is difficult these days, thought I'm the only one........I need patience now


----------



## peter2 (4 May 2022)

Today's arvo scan only had one result. One! I've never seen so few. The one was *OML*, and *SSM* again but triggered yesterday.

Looking through the lower value scan (EMA (Value traded , 10day) <1.5M:  Only six results.
*MTC*: Bonanza gold intersection
*AR1* (mthly comp selection from @Dona Ferentes ), *HCD*, *ICT,* *NET* (too late now), *VTG* (interesting)

_Edit_: Micro volume scan (EMA (value traded  10d)  25K - 100K :  No results, none! 

The market has gone deathly quiet.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> Today's arvo scan only had one result. One! I've never seen so few. The one was *OML*, and *SSM* again but triggered yesterday.
> 
> Looking through the lower value scan (EMA (Value traded , 10day) <1.5M:  Only six results.
> *MTC*: Bonanza gold intersection
> *AR1* (mthly comp selection from @Dona Ferentes ), *HCD*, *ICT,* *NET* (too late now), *VTG* (interesting)



*OMG *is featuring frequently, in the current market!


----------



## eskys (4 May 2022)

Omg is when I shait my pants, haha


----------



## over9k (4 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> What's going on in this crazy market. All my favourite trading stocks are going down. I tried buying a couple of dips but have swallowed losses.  There's nothing much on my radar at the moment. The XAO would be much weaker but the banks are holding it up.
> 
> It seems patience is required now. Prices will eventually get to a level that will induce more demand. Waiting is hard.
> 
> _Edit:_ Prices in our fav commodities are falling, gold, silver, copper, zinc, nickel has settled. Even the huge prices paid for the recent *PLS* lithium auction didn't illicit any demand.



Coal miners that supply china are a good play for when their lockdowns lift. I have WHC, BHP, YAL on the watchlist.


----------



## peter2 (4 May 2022)

Even *OMG* on the LSE has lost 33% recently. Times are tough. 
Watching Aussie Gold Hunters and Opal Hunters shows me that we're so lucky to be traders. We don't have to go digging underground or prospect in 40 degree heat while finding nothing.


----------



## over9k (4 May 2022)

Yeah, we can lose our money in air conditioned comfort.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 May 2022)

peter2 said:


> The XAO would be much weaker but the banks are holding it up.



Indeed - start looking at charts of stocks individually, one at a time just going through the top 200 or 300 or whatever and taking a brief look at each, and there's plenty of weakness out there.


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2022)

I had a bloody week so far, yesterday portfolio of systems shares down 2.5% on a supposedly flat day. WTF?
Then looked at small caps index...


Well that explains...
If you want crazy stuff look at AUD vs USD following US jumping rate by twice the Aussie version...
I give up trying to find any sense...


----------



## Tropico (6 May 2022)

qldfrog said:


> I had a bloody week so far, yesterday portfolio of systems shares down 2.5% on a supposedly flat day. WTF?
> Then looked at small caps index...
> View attachment 141258
> 
> ...



The small ords recovered most of the lost ground yesterday (Edit: against XAO), hope you faired well.
Looks like today might be a blood bath though.


----------



## over9k (6 May 2022)

XEJ is my play in aus. I'd like a leveraged etf for it like GEAR but I don't think one exists. Unless someone else knows of one?


----------



## qldfrog (6 May 2022)

Tropico said:


> The small ords recovered most of the lost ground yesterday (Edit: against XAO), hope you faired well.
> Looks like today might be a blood bath though.



Yes did very well yesterday but will be snashed again ...and more today......


----------



## peter2 (30 May 2022)

XAO +300 points of low. I'm not a believer that we've seen the bottom. This bounce is more impulsive in the US while the XAO seems to be going higher reluctantly. I'm thinking bear market rally, beware. I'm taking short term profits in the US. It's welcome seeing the open trades in the ASX sneaking higher but I don't want to lose very much if/when the market falls again. Keeping exits tight but not too tight.


----------



## eskys (30 May 2022)

US not trading tonight because of Memorial Day. No direction is perhaps a good thing for us? Hard to know, lots of people are wondering if this is a bounce or a turn around........


----------



## peter2 (1 June 2022)

Now I know what the boards of AGL and ORG are feeling. 
I don't know what's going to happen next and I'm unable to provide any guidance.  Today's lithium selloff, ouch.


----------



## qldfrog (1 June 2022)

peter2 said:


> Now I know what the boards of AGL and ORG are feeling.
> I don't know what's going to happen next and I'm unable to provide any guidance.  Today's lithium selloff, ouch.



portfolio falling by 2% today, yet ASS flat..and talk about manipulation of index closing price:
look at this:


+17 points in a few minutes after close
 or +0.4%..wonder if there are bonuses or similar requiring a positive index today


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 August 2022)

Well, my SMSF is winning back some of its losses coming up to the last 40 minutes of the XAO today.

I'll be happy if it ends even Steven. 

gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy (11 August 2022)

Observation:

Some of you may know I dumped all my VAS holdings into AUI due to annoyance at junk bull**** like SQ2 and BRN being included in the index.

During the course of market trading over 24 hours, I keep tabs on the volume adjusted bid price for all my holdings to track where my entire portfolio could be liquidated into the market.

One thing I've noticed since becoming an AUI holder is that the strength of bids in the order book seems to be a very interesting leading indicator.

AUI is not very liquid and is quite thinly traded. 

I first noticed this with some frustation as my beta to the XJO was going down (where I generally want beta of 1). But it turned out to only matter to the downside/to my benefit. i.e. when the XJO is rallying, the willingness (or lack of) of market participants to enter bids for AUI seems to have some information value.

Anyway, the XJO rally since late Jun was largely confirmed by participants willingly upping their AUI bids in the order book, but I can see today that it's died off, similar to the behavior between mid May and early June when XJO attempted a rally and AUI bids were not lifted in the book.

I am probably jinxing this by noting it publicly, but thought it would be interesting for others.


----------



## peter2 (12 August 2022)

Worth noting both @InsvestoBoy's observation and my observation that today's price action seemed like the early signs of exhaustion in the market. Of course I hope the market rally continues unabated next week. 

Right now I'm feeling good, really g-o-o-d. There are three reasons for that. Firstly I'm in good physical condition. I pulled up a bit sore this morning after nine sets of tennis yesterday. After an afternoon walk all the soreness is gone and I'm in good shape. 

Secondly I just finished a very satisfying meal. It started with a good garlic bread, a great red wine that went down smoothly. Then to top it off I got a perfect pizza. It's not often this happens, but tonight the toppings were plentiful and tasty. What made this pizza perfect was the base, not crispy not doughy but just right. A tasty gelato at the end had me in raptures. 

Thirdly, aren't we enjoying this market rally. I'm having my best start of any FY. I know it's not me. I haven't turned into a trading god yet. The market rally started at the same time as the new FY. Serendipity. I'm remember something that @frugal.rock mentioned. Whenever we hit a new equity high we should liquidate. Me and the market aren't at a new high yet but the idea to be careful when things seem to be going perfectly well is valid. 

What is happening and what's the likely forward outcome? 

We know that seven companies dominate our index. It's the banks that have underpinned this rally. BHP, RIO and TLS haven't contributed much at all. However it's the underlying bullish breadth of the market that has this rally moving smoothly. The small ords, midcaps and all battery mineral resources have contributed substantially to this rally. 

Going forward, the banks will continue to do well in this rising interest rate environment.  They'll be able to increase their margins. Bad debts won't be a problem until the interest rates get much higher as a significant percentage of customers are ahead in their mortgage payments. The outlook for BHP, RIO depends on the iron ore price, China must eventually restart their economy. They do have problems with their Covid policy (lockdowns) and Evergrande.  Their current focus on Taiwan and Aust are distractions from their internal problems. I can't see BHP and RIO going down significantly although they may not increase for a while. I'm bullish the rest of our market. We do have a problem with the lack of skilled labour. Companies will adapt and I think the outlook is promising because the growth will be slow and steady rather than fast and frothy. 

I'm bullish XAO as I see the index rising in a slow and steady manner. The only problem that would hamper our market is the US. They will get into a harder recession than Aust and currently their political system is imploding. This has the potential to fuel violent civil unrest. 

Relative Strength to the XAO (21d) :  Mid caps > Small caps > Large caps


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## qldfrog (12 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> Worth noting both @InsvestoBoy's observation and my observation that today's price action seemed like the early signs of exhaustion in the market. Of course I hope the market rally continues unabated next week.
> 
> Right now I'm feeling good, really g-o-o-d. There are three reasons for that. Firstly I'm in good physical condition. I pulled up a bit sore this morning after nine sets of tennis yesterday. After an afternoon walk all the soreness is gone and I'm in good shape.
> 
> ...



And this is what I should take as a baseline: 
5 systems: since FY start:
1 roughly flat, 2 winning, 2 losing => I should really interpret that as I need to drop the 2 losers


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> 5 systems: since FY start:
> 1 roughly flat, 2 winning, 2 losing => I should really interpret that as I need to drop the 2 losers



Ah yes but under different market conditions how do those two losers perform?

They might actually be profitable over the long term?


----------



## qldfrog (13 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Ah yes but under different market conditions how do those two losers perform?
> 
> They might actually be profitable over the long term?



They obviously should be 😁as they were developed using backtests,shaken by adding random input but conceptually, i do not understand how they should deviate from the overall market conditions.
until i do, there is an issue.
I tend to sort this dilemma by reducing exposure aka slash parcel value by 2 until i can understand how the money is lost..but that trouble shoting is a priority.
The xnt has gained back its January 22 level, and a system not matching this performance in the last 8 months has an issue IMHO.so i act.
To get back into this thread, i consider the XNT a better baseline for traders than the XAO as we need to ensure that our buy sell sagas is worth the missed dividends of the banks BHP etc etc


----------



## Cam019 (13 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> They obviously should be 😁as they were developed using backtests,shaken by adding random input but conceptually, i do not understand how they should deviate from the overall market conditions.
> until i do, there is an issue.
> I tend to sort this dilemma by reducing exposure aka slash parcel value by 2 until i can understand how the money is lost..but that trouble shoting is a priority.
> The xnt has gained back its January 22 level, and a system not matching this performance in the last 8 months has an issue IMHO.so i act.
> To get back into this thread, i consider the XNT a better baseline for traders than the XAO as we need to ensure that our buy sell sagas is worth the missed dividends of the banks BHP etc etc



Frog, what style is the the system and what part of the ASX does it trade?


----------



## qldfrog (13 August 2022)

Cam019 said:


> Frog, what style is the the system and what part of the ASX does it trade?



The two losers are break out attempts, with purposedly quick in out play, low latency to get in out, realm from memory on the whole xao.
With lithium plays etc, plenty of good candidates conceptually in the last months so should have made a killing since july.
They did not..and yes they match BT... both real and BT showing a fall since january...
I do not want to detract from the XAO thread but these 2  are cause for concern.and i will investigate when i find time, probably reducing amount engaged on Monday .
Have all a great week end


----------



## frugal.rock (13 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> Serendipity.






peter2 said:


> Whenever we hit a new equity high we should liquidate. Me and the market aren't at a new high yet but the idea to be careful when things seem to be going perfectly well is valid.



That sounds like illogical, contrarian, irrational and chaos based reasoning.  

There's no room for that with mechanical trading unless perhaps with a truly accepting dogmatic coder...
😬


----------



## Telamelo (14 August 2022)




----------



## InsvestoBoy (23 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Anyway, the XJO rally since late Jun was largely confirmed by participants willingly upping their AUI bids in the order book, but I can see today that it's died off, similar to the behavior between mid May and early June when XJO attempted a rally and AUI bids were not lifted in the book.



😬😬😬


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 September 2022)

I can't remember where you said it @peter2 so I am just going to put it here.

On 14th June gap down day after the Friday/Monday US market massacre, you said something like "might be interesting to buy some stocks which close well above their open".

I happened to be topping up my WES stake on the open that day as the downmove had put me moderately underweight equities and noticed it did indeed close well off the lows and above the open, making me feel significantly smarter than my previous WES purchase at ~$55 in Dec.




Interesting to note how well WES has held up relative to say, ASX which formed a similar pattern on that day but has retraced a lot more in the recent selloff




CSL has held up 



as has, e.g. TLS, BXB

whereas COL hasn't


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 September 2022)

🤮🤮🤮🤮


----------



## peter2 (7 September 2022)

That's surprising. The current sentiment doesn't seem as bad as what we experienced through the Covid selloff (early 2020). There's room to get worse though and I'm prepared in case it does.


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## Smurf1976 (7 September 2022)

peter2 said:


> The current sentiment doesn't seem as bad as what we experienced through the Covid selloff (early 2020).



Just my reading of the masses but it seems nowhere even remotely as bad.

2020 was basically a mass panic about entering uncharted territory. Entire industries ceased to exist almost literally overnight with nobody sure what the future held. The market was seeing major falls day after day.

2022 hasn’t even caught the attention of mainstream media outside the financial pages.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 September 2022)

peter2 said:


> That's surprising. The current sentiment doesn't seem as bad as what we experienced through the Covid selloff (early 2020). There's room to get worse though and I'm prepared in case it does.





Smurf1976 said:


> Just my reading of the masses but it seems nowhere even remotely as bad.
> 
> 2020 was basically a mass panic about entering uncharted territory. Entire industries ceased to exist almost literally overnight with nobody sure what the future held. The market was seeing major falls day after day.
> 
> 2022 hasn’t even caught the attention of mainstream media outside the financial pages.




I'm going to make a rather large call here, on "the vibe".


Interest rates in Australia will not rise much more, probably 2-4 x 0.25% over the next 12 mo. 
The Housing Market will fall a little 5-10% and then stabilise.
The XAO will be bumpy until November, no large falls,  but then take off and be 20-40% higher his time next year. 

Just on my sense of what is happening worldwide and in Australia, The Lucky Country. 

gg


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## peter2 (7 September 2022)

Underlying bullishness in the ASX seems to be the consensus here amongst the market watchers but we have to wait for a better R:R opportunity. It'll come.


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## InsvestoBoy (14 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Anyway, the XJO rally since late Jun was largely confirmed by participants willingly upping their AUI bids in the order book, but I can see today that it's died off, similar to the behavior between mid May and early June when XJO attempted a rally and AUI bids were not lifted in the book.




It's quite funny on a personal basis to watch my FOMO levels rising when the XJO is pumping hard and AUI is just chilling with no real bids in the book and the bids not moving up at all.

Then you wake up to notice the SPI futures overnight have caught down the entire pump in one go, which is why I posted this in the first place. 

Whatever entities like to bid on AUI seem to have a much better/leading view on the market, at least since I have been holding it.


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## KevinBB (14 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> It's quite funny on a personal basis to watch my FOMO levels rising when the XJO is pumping hard



Its a very good sell signal. GOAAC
KH


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## monkton (14 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> It's quite funny on a personal basis to watch my FOMO levels rising when the XJO is pumping hard and AUI is just chilling with no real bids in the book and the bids not moving up at all.
> 
> Then you wake up to notice the SPI futures overnight have caught down the entire pump in one go, which is why I posted this in the first place.
> 
> Whatever entities like to bid on AUI seem to have a much better/leading view on the market, at least since I have been holding it.



Guess those 'entities' are comfortably sitting on their dividends paid last Friday & gathering the pennies for the SPP, keeping their stress levels low.


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## peter2 (21 September 2022)

Up >1% one day, down >1% the next. High volatility seems the current norm. The down bars are bigger than the up ones and the market looks likely to test the June22 low. 

There's been lots of dips to buy, only to be disappointed when there's another one. I've weaned myself from the temptation to buy falling prices in "good" companies. A company may have a promising outlook but falling stock prices doesn't help my P&L.

Our market is trading in a range outlined by the April22 high and June22 low. If the market doesn't make a new low I wonder how long it's going to stay in this range? There are lots of problems to resolve and it may take a year or two. I think we have to be patient. 

I'll nibble in the weekly dips but not the daily dips. I prefer to avoid looking at intra-day charts on the ASX. It's too much work for little reward.


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## InsvestoBoy (23 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> View attachment 146472
> 
> 
> 🤮🤮🤮🤮




The last NYMO puke was oversold enough to cause a nice little rally.

I just noticed this about 15 mins before the NYSE open...futures pretty weak pre-open but if we get some strength during NYSE this divergence will be maintained...





...but it's probably puke time.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 September 2022)

I've started doing Lotto again. 

gg


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## divs4ever (24 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've started doing Lotto again.
> 
> gg



awesome !

 those nice folks at TAH  loaded me up with some TLC 

 but that could be a symptom of what is to come


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## InsvestoBoy (24 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> The last NYMO puke was oversold enough to cause a nice little rally.
> 
> I just noticed this about 15 mins before the NYSE open...futures pretty weak pre-open but if we get some strength during NYSE this divergence will be maintained...
> 
> ...



🤮


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## InsvestoBoy (26 September 2022)

What a dispersion day!

All the long duration growth assets bid hard and short duration cyclicals chopped.

CSL, XRO, RMD, COH, WES ..... lol even ATEC which has so much junk in it was up.

I think someone had a big long cyclical/short growth spread on and was rapidly exiting today.


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## peter2 (6 October 2022)

Noticed lots of medical stocks in recent bullish scan results. 

*RMD* making new highs, *PAR, AVR, PNV, NEU *spiking higher. 
Others, rallying with the market, NAN, CSL, COH, MVF, VHT, SHL, HLS,


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## divs4ever (6 October 2022)

i was hoping HLS might slide some more ( so i could add extra cheaper ) 

 maybe next week


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## farmerge (6 November 2022)

With most markets finishing in strong plus territory at the week's end of trading, will we be seeing the ASX being able to follow suit on Monday. Fire those booster rockets up !!!!!!


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## Sean K (6 November 2022)

farmerge said:


> With most markets finishing in strong plus territory at the week's end of trading, will we be seeing the ASX being able to follow suit on Monday. Fire those booster rockets up !!!!!!




I think there’s an XAO banter thread for this.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 November 2022)

Švejk and I are headed for Garbutt Field, unfortunately now called Townsville Airport. 

The ADF have provided me with a suitable aircraft and crew with which to practise his parachuting, ( I will watch with a few snorters from the back seat of the Arnage ) to celebrate what appears to be the beginning of the end of all the depressive talk about the XAO in particular Materials, Gas and Oil. 



gg


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## peter2 (9 November 2022)

A couple of bullish days in the commodity sector and there's a renewed optimism in the forum. The big bounce in copper, lithium remaining strong and now gold rallying over $1700 USD/oz. It all good for the XAO. 

I've even listened to The Lark Ascending to get my spirit soaring. 

Have we seen the bottom?  I think the result of the US elections will determine that.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 November 2022)

futures looking very nice - up 190 pts

and has been rising ever since US inflation numbers .


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## Dona Ferentes (11 November 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> gg




and another version


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## Logique2 (1 December 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Švejk and I are headed for Garbutt Field, unfortunately now called Townsville Airport.
> 
> The ADF have provided me with a suitable aircraft and crew with which to practise his parachuting, ( I will watch with a few snorters from the back seat of the Arnage ) to celebrate what appears to be the beginning of the end of all the depressive talk about the XAO in particular Materials, Gas and Oil.
> 
> ...




Nice..I think Santa Claus might be stirring


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## peter2 (Friday at 3:03 PM)

Is it just me who thinks the ASX is looking very bullish currently ?  Gold producers are charging higher, retail stocks going up and now I see lithium stocks catching a bid today and sneaking higher. Even rare earths stocks are looking up.  Copper is bullish.


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## divs4ever (Friday at 3:12 PM)

we will see  but it looks like the market is dreaming of a big pivot ( to me )


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## frugal.rock (Friday at 4:07 PM)

peter2 said:


> Is it just me who thinks the ASX is looking very bullish currently ?  Gold producers are charging higher, retail stocks going up and now I see lithium stocks catching a bid today and sneaking higher. Even rare earths stocks are looking up.  Copper is bullish.



The book cover does look quite attractive.
I had expected inflows to AUD and some decoupling, not sure where that's at, but it looks a good start.
Nickel looks to be repositioning, 12% corrected, up to another 12% internally forecast by me days ago... (forecast correction range was 15 ~ 25% )
A big call so I kept it privvy...🤐


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## peter2 (Friday at 4:10 PM)

See your nickel call and I raise you *MCR* that I bought today.


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## Sean K (Friday at 4:11 PM)

peter2 said:


> Is it just me who thinks the ASX is looking very bullish currently ?  Gold producers are charging higher, retail stocks going up and now I see lithium stocks catching a bid today and sneaking higher. Even rare earths stocks are looking up.  Copper is bullish.




Yes, looks very bullish today. Maybe everyone got a $50 note from Nana for Xmas and they're putting it into the market.


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## frugal.rock (Friday at 4:25 PM)

peter2 said:


> See your nickel call and I raise you *MCR* that I bought today.



I see your MCR and raise you an R... the problem, that C in the middle should be an R, and you shoulda bought yesty... 🤨🤪


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## UMike (Friday at 4:49 PM)

The XAO outperformed me by 1.6% this week. (After beating FY22 by 15%)
CSL, TYR and the oilers let me down. Only Outstanding stock was PNV.

Every stock I follow has a 1-2 Buyer/Seller ratio.
Really don't think it is bullish at all atm but have an open mind. Plenty I want to buy and sell. Just nothing is in range.

Think I'll go fo a big Motorbike ride next week. Been a waste of time watching it atm.


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## frugal.rock (Friday at 4:53 PM)

UMike said:


> Think I'll go fo a big Motorbike ride next week. Been a waste of time watching it atm.



When you say "big Motorbike", how big are we talking? 😅


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## UMike (Friday at 7:08 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> When you say "big Motorbike", how big are we talking? 😅



Really meant "big ride." Was gonna do Tassie again but think I'll wing it up all the National Parks to Sydney.

MT09. Only 850 but massive amount of punch.


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