# MGX - Mount Gibson Iron



## The Barbarian Investor

Dont you wish you had a crystal ball, i was going to buy-into MGX on the 5th December at around 23c..

Have a look at it now!

Do you have any stocks that you were tracking or contemplating buying over the last few months, that you thought..'if only' ??


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## chicken

*Re: MGX*

SEE, what the steel price is out of BRAZIL..its doubled in price to NIPPON...this company share price will rise how far..I DO NOT KNOW..STEEL could rise up to 100%..this year..what a boon to the industry..CHINA will set the benchmark..and all I know its a lot higher than last year..


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## Jay-684

*Re: MGX*

was gonna buy portman at around $1.80, now its over $3.80 from memory 

oh yeah, and was gonna get in on the BNB float at $5.00, its now around $11.00


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## Mistermoon

*Re: MGX*

Put on another 12% today to close at a high of $0.91.

Brokers set a six month target of $1.20 last week... based on the number of buyers and sheer volume going through (hasn't dipped below 5million for weeks)... this could be realised much sooner!

C'mon BHP... pull in a bigger price rise for the good ol' Iron Ore!


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## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MGX*

Chicken i heard Brazil put up prices to Japan 97% , we've put up prices around 100% and China will take anyhthing japan doesnt want.

It used to be that the companies had a hard time increasing prices to Japan...not any more.


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Can someone tell me why this company has had such a significant increase in price over the last 2-3 months? Its jumped over 300%, But i cant see any announcements which would sugest this kind of thing.


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

In addition to my last question, why did MGX lose such a huge ammount of value in the years between Jan 94 and Jan 01?


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## Sea Dog

*Re: MGX*

The reason for MGX going up, up and away is mainly because they have since April 2004 actually started shipping out their product ( iron ore ) from Geraldton WA - about 3 ships a month on an average each carrying between 50000 ~ 60000 metric tonnes to China.

In addition to this, MGX has an agreement with a 'dedicated' consignee to buy their high quality pelletised ore for a number of years - The ore mined by MGX is of a quality which costs less to be processed into steel products.

Also MGX and Asia Iron Holdings - a mainland China outfit have locked into a joint venture which appears to be a win-win situation for both parties.

NinjO I hope this is of some use to you!


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Interesting information there Sea Dog, much appreciated. If that is the case, and there mines are going to be performing better in the future, is it not a certaintly that MGX will increase their value substantially?, except of course if some kind of disaster happend(by this i mean the unexpected).


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## Sea Dog

*Re: MGX*

Hi elninjO - MGX total output is not significant enough ( they are hoping
for 3 million tonnes annually by the end of 2006 ) to warrant much of
any further sharp rise

MGX has been up, up and away in the last 6 weeks or so - hopefully
it will continue to go up altho' mu opinion is that it may be slow and steady
( if it goes up any further )


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## mime

*Re: MGX*

I was going to buy Caltex @ around $8 a share. It's still probably a good buy at $15 around share though.


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## blake

*Re: MGX*

is it worth buying this one now or too late?


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				Sea Dog said:
			
		

> Hi elninjO - MGX total output is not significant enough ( they are hoping
> for 3 million tonnes annually by the end of 2006 ) to warrant much of
> any further sharp rise
> 
> MGX has been up, up and away in the last 6 weeks or so - hopefully
> it will continue to go up altho' mu opinion is that it may be slow and steady
> ( if it goes up any further )




Sea Dog, what if the price of iron ore goes up again?, which I find it very doubtful that it wont go up, in the situation with china, its going to keep booming for quite some time.


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Anyone have some ideas as to why the price of MGX dropped by around 10% today?


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## kpgduras

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Anyone have some ideas as to why the price of MGX dropped by around 10% today?




Maybe it's something to do with the placement on 01/04/05 at 85c - have a look at http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliNewsViewsPage.asp?PageID={EFCB1F77-D731-448F-8426-66AF88A54B0A}

kpgduras


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				kpgduras said:
			
		

> Maybe it's something to do with the placement on 01/04/05 at 85c - have a look at http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliNewsViewsPage.asp?PageID={EFCB1F77-D731-448F-8426-66AF88A54B0A}
> 
> kpgduras




That url doesn't work. got one that does?


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## kpgduras

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> That url doesn't work. got one that does?




Strange - works for me.    

Try http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au/egoli/egoliHome.asp
click on News and Views (in left margin) and click next page at the bottom.  The 3rd and 4th article are about MGX - the 4th is the one I mentioned.

Regards
kpgduras


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Barbarian, your going to wish you bought in yesterday.


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## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MGX*

Hi el-Ninjo

bought in at 0.73c..hopefully it proves to be a good move


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> Hi el-Ninjo
> 
> bought in at 0.73c..hopefully it proves to be a good move




Good move, wish I had the patience to wait as you did. Impatience doesn't get ya too far in the market. Hasn't for me yet anyway,


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Anyone got any thoughts on what happend this week for MGX? It appears to have another rise on its hands, but how much of one Im not sure. Anyone else's opinions would be helpful.


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*

el_ninj0, 

I have MGX consolidating at the low 70c levels whilst the wider market softens, which is a good thing for MT & LT holders - given their guidance of an expected $50m net profit for the 2006 financial year (figure from annoncements) the current lull in volitility will shake a few traders out and the market will soon begin again valuing the stock on fundamentals.


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## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MGX*

MGX has dropped below my entry price, however i'm still *Bullish* on this stock and may top up my holdings and average out my price..


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*

Well,

I can admit getting it wrong (re my last post) - although the move down seemed to be on the back of BHP's iron ore backdown and in sympathy with the rest of the market. Given that two others I have reduced my position size in (PNA & LAF) released positive announcements this week but still retraced, it seems some ST ugliness will still be present however my earlier MT entries are still intact (given I don't believe the fall is fundamentally based).

Remember the 5cps profit forecast when MGX was 18c didn't move the price for months, and the doom & gloom at present is remiescent of the discussions during the mid 2004 retrace


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## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MGX*

Sitting at 0.61c now..  


Time to sitback and watch the fun over the upcoming weeks?


_NEWSLETTER
By Noel Whittaker

18th April 2005

The share market is on the front page of the paper again because there 
has been a fall in the price of shares all over the world. Naturally 
the press has a field day because scary headlines are great for selling 
papers. If the market jumps, the papers take little notice, but all it 
takes is a bit of a correction for us to  get the full doom and gloom 
treatment. 

Anybody who has been investing in shares for a long time knows that it 
is in the nature of a share market to have periodic jumps and falls. 
This is why I have always recommended that anybody who invests in shares 
have at least a ten year time frame in mind. This provides sufficient 
time for the investor to cope with the normal market volatility. 

So don't be concerned about the current turbulence; hang in there and 
think of adding to your portfolio if you’ve got any spare cash. Don't 
forget that there is now over $600 billion in superannuation and 
employers are contributing 9% of payroll all the time. Most of this money will 
find its way into the share market and this will provide tremendous 
buying pressure year in year out._


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Sit back and watch what??

Have you noticed that this is one seriously volatile stock?
It jumps up and down so much more than any other stock ive seen.
How high in value do you think MGX will go in the next few weeks?


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## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Sit back and watch what???




The Market in General   

Mount Gibson Mining has always been a speculative buy, but a worthwhile stock IMO .

They are confident of achieving profits of around $15M per year, i believe they intend(or have done so) to exchange their 54% interest in Mt Gibson Magnetite deposits for a 30% share in Asia iron Holdings Ltd. (just had a quick look at Commsec news- their joint venture with Asia iron in Nanjing begins operation at the end of April also)

BHP didnt get the rise in price they wanted; however i expect the resource boom still has some steam left in it...

I'm happy to hold


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## DTM

*Re: MGX*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> Sitting at 0.61c now..
> 
> 
> Time to sitback and watch the fun over the upcoming weeks?
> 
> 
> _NEWSLETTER
> By Noel Whittaker
> 
> 18th April 2005
> 
> The share market is on the front page of the paper again because there
> has been a fall in the price of shares all over the world. Naturally
> the press has a field day because scary headlines are great for selling
> papers. If the market jumps, the papers take little notice, but all it
> takes is a bit of a correction for us to  get the full doom and gloom
> treatment.
> 
> Anybody who has been investing in shares for a long time knows that it
> is in the nature of a share market to have periodic jumps and falls.
> This is why I have always recommended that anybody who invests in shares
> have at least a ten year time frame in mind. This provides sufficient
> time for the investor to cope with the normal market volatility.
> 
> So don't be concerned about the current turbulence; hang in there and
> think of adding to your portfolio if you’ve got any spare cash. Don't
> forget that there is now over $600 billion in superannuation and
> employers are contributing 9% of payroll all the time. Most of this money will
> find its way into the share market and this will provide tremendous
> buying pressure year in year out._




Does anyone else think that Noel Whittaker's article flawed?  Down right dangerous even?  Would you put your Super into the share market if it was going backwards, no matter how much money you had in it?  If the US, Japan, Australia and Europe's economy are slowing, wouldn't that mean less returns for companies therefore would you invest in something that doesn't justify the returns?

It would actually be good to hear from longer term investor's views how they perceive the market and how they would trade it.


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Anyone else notice that this one gets hit extremely hard in accordance with how the All Ords are going? Percentage wise im talking about.


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> They are confident of achieving profits of around $15M per year




MGX upgraded thier profit forecast due to increased revenues in the second half - $21m for the FY I believe

Yesterday's ann didn't seem to move the market much, but $25 pt on 3 MTPA does provide a very solid base for revenue and profitablity. 

Happy to hold, at current levels it seems a little undervalued at 2005 profit figures (just over 5cps profit, if you include the Oct05 22c options in the market cap)


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> MGX upgraded thier profit forecast due to increased revenues in the second half - $21m for the FY I believe
> 
> Yesterday's ann didn't seem to move the market much, but $25 pt on 3 MTPA does provide a very solid base for revenue and profitablity.
> 
> Happy to hold, at current levels it seems a little undervalued at 2005 profit figures (just over 5cps profit, if you include the Oct05 22c options in the market cap)




I agree mofra, definetely solid revenue. Already shipped 510,000 tones. I am suprised however that there was no reaction to this in the share price. Mabey a delayed reaction?


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*

That's a little better,

Exploration ann seems to have help price Thurs & Fri - I have the ST DT from 31/03 broken now, although on my weekly chart MGX looks like its trending sideways and 66c resistance is still intact.

Interesting to note one of the areas covered is near FMG's stake - hopefully the same problems FMG had with the increase in costs to get project to production are not going to be replicated.

Notice there is a large sell at 68c (1m shares) - would anyone like to guess if this is legit or just a stacker?  (for accumulation). Volume higher on last to days leads me to speculate


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looks like there is strong buying support for MGX today, much better interest than the previous weeks. I think we may be seeing some kind of comeback for this one.


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*

el ninj0,

Perhaps the decision to build the slurry pipeline has attracted a little more interest, as it will reduce LT overheads as well as avoid problems earlier this year of rail carriage availability (not to mention leveraging against any upgrade in resource estimate or quality). Not far off fair value at the moment methinks on 2005 earnings figures, taking into account they didn't set profitablity figures fr last FY so they still have to prove to the market that they can meet their targets (which I believe they will). Would hope that after the 2005 full year figures are released the price moves up as it starts to trade on 2006 multiples.

Cheers


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

It amazes me how terribly stupid the people that sell at current prices in MGX are. This is a company well on track to becoming a huge success, yet the people that hold this stock continue to sell it at lower and lower prices. Even though it had an up today, its irrelivent as it will go down tommorow again.

I'd like to know people opinions, mabey some technical charting, on when this stock will start to pickup again. When is the next report on progress due?

Thanks.


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## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> It amazes me how terribly stupid the people that sell at current prices in MGX are. This is a company well on track to becoming a huge success, yet the people that hold this stock continue to sell it at lower and lower prices. Even though it had an up today, its irrelivent as it will go down tommorow again.
> 
> I'd like to know people opinions, mabey some technical charting, on when this stock will start to pickup again. When is the next report on progress due?
> 
> Thanks.



Ninjo, I can't work it out either!!  Brian Johnson is a really switched on MD and has built this company into something that is clearly trading cheaply!! When you consider that the All Ords has regained all of it's losses, but yet MGX is trading only really a handful of cents off it's low thru out the downturn of the past 3 months!!
As to when this stock will pick up again, I have no explanation.Next report I guess will be the final quarter report. Possibly we will recieve some good news, Re: the new drilling area?


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Nice movement in the price today, up 4 cents to 70cps. Its almost on a breakout, but not quite just yet, another few cents and its gonna go for a run again. Hopefully....., 

Go MGX, GO!


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Does anyone know of some reason(s) that MGX might have had this increased popularity again?, Im sure its still undervalued currently, but I cant figure out why it didn't go higher earlier? Doctorj, Richkid?


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Well, I guess my questions have been somewhat answered. MGX has an announcement pending, to be released on the 23rd, Thursday, June.



> The securities of Mountain Gibson Iron Limited (the "Company") will be placed in pre-open at the request of the Company, pending the release of an annoucement by the Company. Unless the ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Thursday, 23 June 2005 or when the announcement is released to the market.




Any ideas on what the announcement might be in reference to?, obviously some people were predicting this would happen yesterday so they bought up.


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## doctorj

*Re: MGX*

Chances are many already know what the announcement is, others just bought because everyone else was.

MGX was hit by the market correction but unlike others is yet to come back.  It wouldn't suprise me if the news results in strong trading and high volumes as a result, despite the selling pressure that usually comes when a stock is bought up strongly before an announcement.

The price action would indicate that its unlikely that the announcement will be a raising.  I'd also discount any takeover of RMI at this stage as they're not in a halt, which leaves it likely to be an announcement on their magnetite project.


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*

Well the after market ann settles it,

Further funding of Argyle Iron Ore project via RMIs placement, glad to know it isn't an MGX placement, suspected there was a chance for the slurry pipeline but they will have some capital injection when the October options are exercised (MGXO).


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> Well the after market ann settles it,
> 
> Further funding of Argyle Iron Ore project via RMIs placement, glad to know it isn't an MGX placement, suspected there was a chance for the slurry pipeline but they will have some capital injection when the October options are exercised (MGXO).




In english please?


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

As todays announcement was released to the market. The balance was clearly in the sellers hands, however when the market opened for trading, alot of overselling was seen in the low 70's, which led to buyer backdowns. In other words, the sellers saw it as a fast buck and have oversold beyond the value of the shares.

My prediction for this is that it will cause the buyers from today to mark up value on their stock and lead to a sharp increase in the sp of this security.

The announcement of a Shougang partnership puts MGX in an extremely strong position in china, with massive potential to increase the value of MGX as a whole.


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## profithunter

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> As todays announcement was released to the market. The balance was clearly in the sellers hands, however when the market opened for trading, alot of overselling was seen in the low 70's, which led to buyer backdowns. In other words, the sellers saw it as a fast buck and have oversold beyond the value of the shares.
> 
> My prediction for this is that it will cause the buyers from today to mark up value on their stock and lead to a sharp increase in the sp of this security.
> 
> The announcement of a Shougang partnership puts MGX in an extremely strong position in china, with massive potential to increase the value of MGX as a whole.





Do you own this stock?


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				profithunter said:
			
		

> Do you own this stock?




Indeed I do. I dont think i'd follow a stock this closely unless I owned it or was thinking about buying it.


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## profithunter

*Re: MGX*

Yeah I thought so, the way you are talking the stock up


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				profithunter said:
			
		

> Yeah I thought so, the way you are talking the stock up




It was not the intention to talk up the stock. Im looking for other peoples opinions on this also, feel free to give me your opinion or correct in any way you like, im open to other peoples views on this subject.


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## profithunter

*Re: MGX*

I've placed a bid at .61, it seems to have support at that level...of course I'm looking at it purely as a technical trade but the announcement certainly adds to the long term positives for mt gibson


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## chicken

*Re: MGX*

reading this morning in the paper....the chinese have taken a 50% equity share in this company...so its all go will rise in value here I will now invest as this is an all go company...maybe they will get some chinese miners as well...the chinese are taking a seat on the board...watch this stock


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## Mofra

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> reading this morning in the paper....the chinese have taken a 50% equity share in this company...



Is this what you were talking about?

Date:	24/6/2005
Author:	Robin Bromby
Source:	The Australian --- Page: 25

Australian mining company, Mount Gibson Iron, has found a Chinese partner. Shougang Group, the fourth-largest steel maker in China, will pay $A135 million for a stake in Mount Gibson's magnetite pellet iron ore project. Shougang will gain ownership of 50 per cent of the magnetite deposit in Western Australia and *13 per cent of the company*, giving it a seat on the board. The magnetite will be mined and processed and sent as a slurry by pipeline to Geraldton. A pellet plant will be build in China.

MGX has done very well in the past 12-18 months forming joint ventures with Chinese companies (eg The Extension Hill transaction which gave it 54% of Aisa Iron Holdings, now 61%) to ensure delivery partners in China are assured for all ore mined. IMO this latest development continues the trend on mutually beneficial agreements with interested parties, to me it displays management savvy.


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## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> Is this what you were talking about?
> 
> Date:	24/6/2005
> Author:	Robin Bromby
> Source:	The Australian --- Page: 25
> 
> Australian mining company, Mount Gibson Iron, has found a Chinese partner. Shougang Group, the fourth-largest steel maker in China, will pay $A135 million for a stake in Mount Gibson's magnetite pellet iron ore project. Shougang will gain ownership of 50 per cent of the magnetite deposit in Western Australia and *13 per cent of the company*, giving it a seat on the board. The magnetite will be mined and processed and sent as a slurry by pipeline to Geraldton. A pellet plant will be build in China.
> 
> MGX has done very well in the past 12-18 months forming joint ventures with Chinese companies (eg The Extension Hill transaction which gave it 54% of Aisa Iron Holdings, now 61%) to ensure delivery partners in China are assured for all ore mined. IMO this latest development continues the trend on mutually beneficial agreements with interested parties, to me it displays management savvy.



That is right....looks like this share will go higher


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## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> That is right....looks like this share will go higher




In agreeance with you Chicken Man/Lady.  It also gives us a peace of mind that a big company coming out of China, is aware of their own country's needs, hence no slow down to the amount of Iron Ore required for the country's infrastructure!! You ask is I would, why would they "shagging Co.China" invest hundreds of millions of dollars into something like MGX if they thought themselves that their needs are cooling off!!! The Chows are not at all silly  people!! Yes I have held this stock for some time, however at todays trading levels i do consider a good buy!Does'nt appear to be any down side. Magnetite BFS due August.

Just my thought for the day!!


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looking good at todays close. It didn't close on the high of the day, so im unsure of tommorows outcome, however, a 7% gain in a single day without some kind of news is a little unusual.

Anyone elses thoughts?


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## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Looking good at todays close. It didn't close on the high of the day, so im unsure of tommorows outcome, however, a 7% gain in a single day without some kind of news is a little unusual.
> 
> Anyone elses thoughts?




Good day of trading indeed!!! I would expect a good day on the asx tomorrow with the end of the fin year drawing near. I really think El Ninjo, that it's taken a week for the latest submission of reports from Mr.Johnson's switched on Company, for poss. the Institutions and traders to digest the positive impact that China's 4th largest Steel producer has jumped on board the train to Mount Gibson!! I am in no doubt that we are about to see a fair bit of movement on this stock!!


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## profithunter

*Re: MGX*

I've jumped on the MGX rollercoaster...I'm in profit already after todays gains.


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## RichKid

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> The Chows are not at all silly people.




Johnno261 and anyone reading, 
Be aware that language of the type used above is unnaceptable on these forums, it is considered derogatory and offensive and is not appropriate. Please familiarise yourself with the forum code of conduct. Using names like that is unnecessary. I am surprised that you use that word when you have acknowledged a simple truth in that very sentence. No race or culture should be treated in that off-hand manner purely because of the fact that they are not from our own. We need to maintain a basic standard of decency here- there are other forums for those who prefer lower standards.


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## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Johnno261 and anyone reading,
> Be aware that language of the type used above is unnaceptable on these forums, it is considered derogatory and offensive and is not appropriate. Please familiarise yourself with the forum code of conduct. Using names like that is unnecessary. I am surprised that you use that word when you have acknowledged a simple truth in that very sentence. No race or culture should be treated in that off-hand manner purely because of the fact that they are not from our own. We need to maintain a basic standard of decency here- there are other forums for those who prefer lower standards.




I'll second that, well said.


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## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

It takes a man to say sorry, as I do apoligize now. No bad intentions wer'e meant. I acknowledge that this may have been offensive, but more than anything I was making a claim of respect, That the Chineese are not silly people!(My wording should have been different) I travel the world every year and I always stop thru that part of the world because of my love for their culture,people,food, etc etc. 
 Have a nice day Richkid !!!!!!


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## RichKid

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> It takes a man to say sorry, as I do apoligize now. No bad intentions wer'e meant. I acknowledge that this may have been offensive, but more than anything I was making a claim of respect, That the Chineese are not silly people!(My wording should have been different) I travel the world every year and I always stop thru that part of the world because of my love for their culture,people,food, etc etc.
> Have a nice day Richkid !!!!!!




Hi  Johnno,
Apology accepted! I'm glad you didn't mean to be offensive. Anyone else reading, please be careful about the terms you use. This applies to everyone equally so please report any posts of that nature.


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## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Rich Kid....the Chinese are way ahead of the eight ball believe it...had a lot to do with them in NZ....they are more clever in business and work, than any European I have known, they work>>>>12 hours a day,and their only downfall is gambling....they love it more than anyone I have known...As with the stockmarket they just love it...they are loyal to their workplace and if they make a friend with you its for life...got a lot of time for them as we Europeans became LAZY...most of us rather go fishing or looking at sport...a lot of us have forgotten how to work ..whereby the Chinese have just discovered the sweet success of having $$$$ whereby most young people here expect everything on a plate....thats the difference between the Chinese....when the farmers need labour here they cant get them...they should bring them here as there is plenty of work...but no one wants it...as far as GMX they are good for the company...yes the share will go higher as work and money are 2 items the chinese value and they will make it happen..I will buy more shares at present prices


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## RichKid

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Rich Kid....the Chinese are way ahead of the eight ball believe it...had a lot to do with them in NZ....they are more clever in business and work, than any European I have known, they work>>>>12 hours a day,and their only downfall is gambling....they love it more than anyone I have known...As with the stockmarket they just love it...they are loyal to their workplace and if they make a friend with you its for life...got a lot of time for them as we Europeans became LAZY...most of us rather go fishing or looking at sport...a lot of us have forgotten how to work ..whereby the Chinese have just discovered the sweet success of having $$$$ whereby most young people here expect everything on a plate....thats the difference between the Chinese....when the farmers need labour here they cant get them...they should bring them here as there is plenty of work...but no one wants it...as far as GMX they are good for the company...yes the share will go higher as work and money are 2 items the chinese value and they will make it happen..I will buy more shares at present prices




Yes, I agree, that was my point, when you use certain words it suggests people are something substandard (it creates a stereotype- like saying all Chinese drivers are bad drivers (eg saying 'bloody Asians' when they cut across you at the lights or that European born Australian's aren't as good as maths as Chinese born Australians- generalisations often show a lack of knowledge or understanding), sometimes we get into bad habits with our descriptions. A country like China couldn't be the centre of global economic interest without having the brains to make it so, there is also the rich cultural tradition and history which most individual countries cannot rival. They are not perfect but that doesn't mean they are the opposite either. 

Some people say the Chinese just work harder (that is a virtue in itself- being assiduous) but they also have to have brains to go the distance, as does any human being. It doesn't help to stereotype something when we can't understand its complexity.

Okay, will end this little tangent, back to the stock. Johnno, this post is no criticism of you.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Yes, I agree, that was my point, when you use certain words it suggests people are something substandard (it creates a stereotype- like saying all Chinese drivers are bad drivers (eg saying 'bloody Asians' when they cut across you at the lights or that European born Australian's aren't as good as maths as Chinese born Australians- generalisations often show a lack of knowledge or understanding), sometimes we get into bad habits with our descriptions. A country like China couldn't be the centre of global economic interest without having the brains to make it so, there is also the rich cultural tradition and history which most individual countries cannot rival. They are not perfect but that doesn't mean they are the opposite either.
> 
> Some people say the Chinese just work harder (that is a virtue in itself- being assiduous) but they also have to have brains to go the distance, as does any human being. It doesn't help to stereotype something when we can't understand its complexity.
> 
> Okay, will end this little tangent, back to the stock. Johnno, this post is no criticism of you.




I don't see this post as a critisicm of me, but of a correction of your poss. lack of knowledge towards the Chineese,RichKid.As mentioned, these Chineese are no silly people!!!!


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Anyone else seeing some unusual info from comsec this morning on this stock?
By unusual I mean, currently the BID and OFFER prices are clearly 63 and 63.5 respectively, however, Comsec is only showing them as 61.5 and 62.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Anyone else seeing some unusual info from comsec this morning on this stock?
> By unusual I mean, currently the BID and OFFER prices are clearly 63 and 63.5 respectively, however, Comsec is only showing them as 61.5 and 62.




What I did see that was unusual today with MGX was that it went up!!!!! Hoorah Hoorah. El ninjo, hopefully Sinom have offloaded all that they wish to dispose and now we can expect strong buying from Shougang and traders in anticipation to what will be an outstanding quarterly,then followed up with a huge profit increase of maybe 700% which would equate to roughly 25 million profit as opposed to last year full financial profit of 3.5mill.
Wednesday is looking like going to be a great day!!!!
Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Wednesday is looking like going to be a great day!!!!
> Cheers




Wednesday hey?, Can you direct me to the announcement which refers to this date please?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Wednesday hey?, Can you direct me to the announcement which refers to this date please?




The last 1/4 reports with MGX have normally come out in the last few days of July. Common knowledge of MGX, no announcement to refer from.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Good finish on todays price, closed at a high of the day on 66.5cps.
Lets see what tommorow has to offer.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Good finish on todays price, closed at a high of the day on 66.5cps.
> Lets see what tommorow has to offer.




Yes MGX looked really good today and finished strong with obvious knowledge of a good quarterly near and from that quarterly we will be able to ascertain possibly of how good the full year will be. This is my assumption, but I think the full year profit for MGX will be up possibly 700% to maybe 22 - 25million dollars as compared to MGX's last years profits of 3.5million!! 2006's full year profits will be a different story again,hence the full year of 71.5%rise as opposed to 3 months of this year at the new price!!
We are in for some really good times ahead with this company.I am excited!!


----------



## profithunter

*Re: MGX*

MGX is behaving very well, it has bounced off its resistance levels at .60 but needs to bust through .70 before there is any major upside.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Not such a great behaviour today on the news of the report. Any ideas why? I thoguht 23.2 Million dollars profit after tax was a good result, but hey, i could be wrong?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Not such a great behaviour today on the news of the report. Any ideas why? I thoguht 23.2 Million dollars profit after tax was a good result, but hey, i could be wrong?




My humble opinion is that dummy sells are retaining the price down for accumulation reasons!! Just my thought. Without sounding like i am blowing my own trumpet, but how true i was in stating such a great profit reportto follow, but this is only what's to come and when the true market can get their stupid heads around the income this company will be earning in years to come, you and I will be saying instead of buying only half a million units of this, I should have purchased 1 million units!That's my honest belief!!
Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Wish I had the money to buy half a million, 
I'll stick with what i have for now. But i agree johno, its definetely going to be worth alot more in the short future to come.


----------



## chriswillz

*Re: MGX*

Hi
I'm a holder of MGX. Answer me this.....

Why would a company say its Quarterly report is comming out and not post it?

This is not a good sign


Chris


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

Was released 4.33pm 29/7/05.

ASX website seems to be down. Hope you don't mind me posting it here Joe - only 43k though. Maybe it can be deleted next week.

I don't hold, but I think there could be an over reaction on Monday. I will look to buy in at some stage over next few weeks.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Wish I had the money to buy half a million,
> I'll stick with what i have for now. But i agree johno, its definetely going to be worth alot more in the short future to come.




El Ninjo, I am kickin' back around the other side of the world reading my emails, and happily recieved an attachment from a good reliable mate of my that sometimes posts on this site. Shaw's Brokers did indicate in their morning notes during the past few days,that MGX is valued @ $1.72p/s. I try not to get too carried away with these Brokering recommendations, but it just re confirms why we are so Bullish on this stock!! Fundamentals. I know frustrating @ present, but i can say frustration won't linger for long.This stock will be a life changing stock for me no doubt and good luck to those that hold,as you will be rewarded!!
Cheers 
Johnno


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

Hi Johno
Are you aware that Shaw holds something like 60mill of these? From what I can see Quaterly report looks slightly under the anticipated standards. However target of $1.20-$1.50 is still a chance.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Personally Im going for the long hawl on these guys, they have just made their first profit, and a good one at that. Although as prophet said, slightly under exepectation. However, since they have just made there first profit, they are well on track to further profits. It will only increase from here on, unless of course the unexpected happens.

In 5-10 years, they will be another big player in the field, much like bhp of today. They are in a good position now to gain some short term rise per share, how fast it happens is what we dont know.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheProphet said:
			
		

> Hi Johno
> Are you aware that Shaw holds something like 60mill of these? From what I can see Quaterly report looks slightly under the anticipated standards. However target of $1.20-$1.50 is still a chance.




Fully aware that Shaw's hold a big parcel, hence my recent comments to El Ninjo, "I don't get too carried away with these Broker recommendation", hence Conflict of Interests!! Correct. What does excite me is this Company meeting time frames which then carries thru to forecast profits being made which in turn meets profit expectations, cause as we know, the market magnifies negative news more than probably should.
Cheers
Johnno


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

You are right. This isnt a short term trade. Just wondering what annoucements will spark some enthusiam? One would have assumed the recent Chinese developments would have got the ball rolling.


Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheProphet said:
			
		

> You are right. This isnt a short term trade. Just wondering what annoucements will spark some enthusiam? One would have assumed the recent Chinese developments would have got the ball rolling.




Thats funny you mention that Prophet, the chinese developments as you say should have done something for this, on the day those annoucements were made, the immediate price of the share was 75cps on open, after a close of 68cps the previous trading day. Yet by the end of the day, the price per share had dropped -2 cps on the previous days trading value. Which only leads me to beleive there are some people out there that are somehow disgruntled with MGX and are overselling it.

Also, just as a footnote, that seller at the 68cps mark with 1,000,000 shares is back on the board. I wonder why he/she didn't sell at the high that day of the announcement?


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Both the sellers at at 68 and 69 cps, are gone from the board now. Maybe they realised they'll get more for their shares sooner rather than later. It seems to be travelling very well so far today.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Sea Dog said:
			
		

> Hi elninjO - MGX total output is not significant enough ( they are hoping
> for 3 million tonnes annually by the end of 2006 ) to warrant much of
> any further sharp rise
> 
> MGX has been up, up and away in the last 6 weeks or so - hopefully
> it will continue to go up altho' mu opinion is that it may be slow and steady
> ( if it goes up any further )



The CEO of SWG is joning the MGX board????


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Encouraging results today again, closed only .5 cents below the high of the day. That 70 cents per share mark is looking very close now.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looks like 69cents per share is the one to pass, its having a bit of trouble getting past there. Seems to be alot of increased interest in this share though, which is a nice positive.


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

El Niño,
I feel that someone is accumulating MGX at the moment. Have patience, I'd give it another 2-3weeks before it cracks the 70 barrier. But once this has occured we will be looking at new highs shortly thereafter. You seem to be a keen fan of MGX do you hold?

I did, but sold to find better value elsewhere. Though would be more than happy to jump back on board once it cracks the pivotal 70

Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

I do hold Prophet, im just curious to here other people thoughts on the state of this one, thats why there is so many posts from me .

Thanks for yours.


----------



## chriswillz

*Re: MGX*

El Niño
Cracked the 70 today. One would think this is surely a good time to jump in. I know I did!!


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				chriswillz said:
			
		

> El Niño
> Cracked the 70 today. One would think this is surely a good time to jump in. I know I did!!




Ive been watching it all morning chris, I had a feeling it would break the 70c mark today, but wasn't sure. Good luck with your buy. There seems to be alot of interest in this one now.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Nice finish today, cant wait for next week. New directory appointed, exciting stuff people, im excited!, . Finished on 71.5cps with a high of 72cps. This new directory information must have leaked a bit earlier i'd think, hence the increased buying over the previous 3 days. It looks like he's got quite a nice history, and some good contacts to help MGX get a few deals in, lets hope so atleast.

Selling seems very scatered currently, far more buyers than sellers in the market depth. Someone else's view would be nice if you care to share...?


----------



## profithunter

*Re: MGX*

It was nice to see mgx close above .70c today...next stop $1.00!!!!


----------



## chriswillz

*Re: MGX*

Finally what we have all been waiting for... @74cps as we speak

Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				chriswillz said:
			
		

> Finally what we have all been waiting for... @74cps as we speak
> 
> Cheers




Also watching closely chris. Its looking promising. Depending on the outcome today, we could be on a breakout.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looks like its holding off for a while. Having trouble keeping above that 70cps mark.

Any other thoughts?


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

MGX will probably hit as low as 65-66 before returning up over the 70mark. It just seems to have lost some momentum. I suppose buyers are getting frustrated with the slowness of the uptrend.

Cheers


----------



## ramjet

*Re: MGX*

prophet, you maybe right, it wants to go, it has the fundamentals behind it, we just need news flow, also i expect some punters want to see the shougang deal first before they buy in.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheProphet said:
			
		

> MGX will probably hit as low as 65-66 before returning up over the 70mark. It just seems to have lost some momentum. I suppose buyers are getting frustrated with the slowness of the uptrend.




Sorry if this seems like a stupid question, but how can buyers be frustrated with the slowness of the uptrend?, They are the ones responsible for it. For quite a few days, there were some small ammounts of sellers wanting to go for sells, lots of maximum 50,000. Yet the buyers were hesitant and didn't even go above 71cps. It seems to me like there hasn't been enough exposure of what is happening to make people more interested in it.


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

Sorry El Niño - could have been a little crisper on the wording. Meant that those "holding" mgx could have expected a steaper uptrend. Which obviously has not occured yet.

Cheers
P.S. Look 4 MUL tomorrow morning - set for some action


----------



## pokerset

*Re: MGX*

could just be a delayed reaction.. the movement is there


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

Certainly, looks like a great long term trade - however I am more in the short term market.

In that respect better value elsewhere

Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Big buyer in this arfternoon. 3,000,000 at 71cps
Something big may be about to happen.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX  ASX300*

Today it was great to see this stock recieve some recognition and was allocated a position in the S & P ASX300.  Most probably the start of Institutional buying. In my humble opinion, just the start of the big picture!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Col Capitol Fund Managers, another Chinese institution are accumulating MGX as per yesterday's report.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Col Capitol Fund Managers, another Chinese institution are accumulating MGX as per yesterday's report.




Wonder when it will run, its right on its breaking line at the moment.
Who knows though....
Any one have any news from analysts about it?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Picture unfolding. See todays ASX ann.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Picture unfolding. See todays ASX ann.




All as to be expected in the report johnno. Looks like a steady progression from here on to me.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> All as to be expected in the report johnno. Looks like a steady progression from here on to me.




So much for steady, nice jump today. up 4 cents from yesterday. Lets hope it continues. Got upto 77.5cents at one stage.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> So much for steady, nice jump today. up 4 cents from yesterday. Lets hope it continues. Got upto 77.5cents at one stage.




El ninjo has struck.Heating up in the kitchen!!! How great was the announcement late in the day!!!


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Just thought this is worth a mention in this thread:

"Iron ore prices will jump again: brokers"
http://www.thewest.com.au/20050917/business/tw-business-home-sto132266.html

"China will have to wait at least another two years before extracting its threatened revenge for February's unprecedented 71.5 per cent price increase for iron ore, with most analysts now predicting another big rise next year.

Investment bank UBS led the charge yesterday, staging an amazing about face to predict iron ore prices would rise 10 per cent next year and "rollover" in 2007. Previously one of the sector's more pessimistic observers, UBS had been forecasting prices would fall 20 per cent in both years.

UBS attributed its change of heart to its revised forecasts for Chinese steel production, which it now expected to grow by another 8 per cent in both 2006 and 2007.

Previously, most analysts had believed Chinese government efforts to slow domestic growth and inflation, including cutting the number of iron ore import licences and curbing construction of new small-scale steel mills, to have a greater impact on steel output.

But Chinese growth continues to run rampant and while Beijing's decision to allow limited appreciation of the yuan has also marginally increased the buying power of Chinese industry.

"We expect strong steel production growth to keep the iron ore market tight for the next 12 months, allowing iron ore miners to push through another price increase," UBS analysts Daniel Brebner and Glyn Lawcock said in a client note yesterday.

Fellow investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston has also flagged the possibility of another 10 per cent increase in 2006, from the previous consensus forecast of rollover, while UK merchant bank Investec upgraded its forecast from a 10 per cent fall to rollover next year.

Dallas Horodam, from metals forecaster AME Mineral Economics, said the market was finally catching on to what had been obvious for some time.

"We've been forecasting an increase for most of the year in the range of 5 to 10 per cent," he said "And if you look at the gap between spot prices and contract prices, it could be higher."

Spot prices in China are typically $US20-$US30 a tonne higher than the $US50 per tonne paid for contracted lump ore from the Pilbara. Australian ore also costs Asian buyers about $20 a tonne less than ore from Brazil because of the greater shipping distances from South America.

Earlier this year, BHP Billiton almost sparked all-out war with China when it demanded an extra $US10 per tonne to recoup some of the so-called freight differential, on top of the 71.5 per cent increase already agreed with other suppliers.

BHP Billiton's demand inflamed an already tense situation, coming after Chinese industry chiefs and government officials repeatedly warned that gouging customers while supplies were tight could irreparably damage Australian miners relationships with Chinese buyers.

But Mr Horodam said China's threats to exact revenge were unlikely to find much traction for the next few years, especially as only the world's big three miners were set to increase output substantially before the end of the decade.

Big ticket expansions are set to lift BHP Billiton's output from 104 million tonnes this year to 118 million tonnes in 2006, while Rio Tinto's Pilbara mines will produce about 170 million tonnes, up from 140 million tonnes in calendar 2005."

Very interesting, mabey very profitable too.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Great reading El Ninjo. Thank You.
MGX looking very good. BFS which is due Mid December, was confirmed to us to be very viable, hence the uptake in interest from Shougang Co.  They are already aware of things months ahead, and they would'nt go throwing money into a Co.  willy nilly !! Great news about them allocating $175million for the slurry pipe project. Good news for shareholders. Keeps dilution down!!
Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

I think it'll probably go down to around 81cps today, but tommorow it will go up again. One of those mid level resistance stages its at right now. $1.15 is my target for the short term.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

ElNinjo, your short term target is conservative and very reachable in my opinion pre Christmas. Just my opinion.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Just perused over some valuation on MGX should the iron ore sector recieve a 10% price increase as it appears maybe a strong possibility.

It will add $18,000,000 p/a , 16cps and put MGX on a P/E of 7.

Outlook is very bullish. Traded very strong near close and closed on its high for the day of 84cents. Poss. may gap up Monday.
Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

I agree johno, it did trade very strongly in the afternoon. I expect it to go up significantly on monday, atleast 4 cents. Mabey even reach 90cps. I expect it to reach my short term pre christmas. Possibly early november. MGX is on a breakout right now as far as I can see, so im getting in while its hot.

Good luck everyone.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Well, , that didn't exactly go as predicted. Mabey its still building support. What do I know, my guess is as good as the next persons. Help me out here someone.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

The hardest thing is to let the winners run. Every slightest retracement makes you want to jump out to protect your winnings. You must fight your instincts and invest like a rat (I'll explain in another thread).


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

For those whom are interested, an interesting article published in The Sydney Morning Herald on September 20th in relation to a large Ohio based company that is perusing for aquisitions amongst the junior iron ore players in Australia that are in a BFS stage. MGX & MMX are both at this point in their developments that I am aware of.AZR?

Go to Google News,type in Mount Gibson Iron and then sort by date and this link should be the most recent news on MGX.

Interesting reading
Cheers
Johnno


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> For those whom are interested, an interesting article published in The Sydney Morning Herald on September 20th in relation to a large Ohio based company that is perusing for aquisitions amongst the junior iron ore players in Australia that are in a BFS stage. MGX & MMX are both at this point in their developments that I am aware of.AZR?
> 
> Go to Google News,type in Mount Gibson Iron and then sort by date and this link should be the most recent news on MGX.
> 
> Interesting reading
> Cheers
> Johnno




You are correct johnno. AZR has had alot of increased volume in the past couple of trading days aswell, and a steady price increase. Above 20cps now. Would be good to see either MGX or AZR the target in a bidding war. They are both a sure bet in my opinion. MGX in the later stages compared to AZR of course.

Will be interesting to see what happens.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Great news out today re the Asian Iron magnetite project given the correct approvals from the Chinese government. Things seem to be falling into place nicely. 

Shaws also had an update on MGX today which of course was positive, given the fact that they hold a large parcel.
Article in the fin review today was also very encouraging on MGX and the Iron Ore sector.

Cheers
Johnno


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Great news out today re the Asian Iron magnetite project given the correct approvals from the Chinese government. Things seem to be falling into place nicely.
> 
> Shaws also had an update on MGX today which of course was positive, given the fact that they hold a large parcel.
> Article in the fin review today was also very encouraging on MGX and the Iron Ore sector.
> 
> Cheers
> Johnno




Hey johnno, can you post the link for the financial review article? I had a look, but couldn't find it. Thanks.

I agree, its looking very very good. I dont like to ramp it up. So i think ive said enough.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Yes I agree. I have made many posts on MGX myself, but people may find a fine line between spruiking and sincere excitement. Cheers El Ninjo, I will cool off a bit too. Good luck


----------



## Yippyio

*Re: MGX*

MGX - Looking Good !!!

FYI


Mount Gibson pellet plant approvals won

Jesse Riseborough


Wednesday, September 28, 2005
EMERGING iron ore play Mount Gibson Iron says its 76% subsidiary Asia Iron Holding has received all the necessary development approvals for construction of a 2.5 million tonne per annum pellet plant at the port of Longtan in China.

Beijing Shougang Design Institute has completed the engineering design of the plant and is also expected to be awarded the turnkey contract for construction of the plant, which is expected to commence in April 2006.

Mount Gibson said the Longtan Port Authority would be constructing a 400,000t covered storage facility for the company's magnetite concentrate to be exported from the Extension Hill magnetite project in Western Australia. The plant will be built on land adjacent to the wharf and will be leased for 25 years. 

Asia Iron said it was also currently assessing possible locations for construction of a second 2.5tpa plant to be utilised following the scheduled doubling of production in 2008-09.

Earlier this month Mount Gibson said it had commenced a feasibility study into the production of metallised iron using the Midrex rotary hearth furnace technology. The study is expected to take two years to complete and will be based on the proposed construction of four 500,000tpa production modules, which the company said could each generate sales of around $200 million per year.

Mount Gibson holds both magnetite and coal deposits in WA's Mid West region, which it said were both technically suitable for the process that produces metallised iron in nugget form. The company is considering a plant located between Dongara and Mingenew.

Shares in Mount Gibson closed up 0.5c [0.6%] at 82.5c.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looking very good guys. There is a bit of a build up of sellers at 90cents, around 20 sellers looking to get rid of around 500,000 shares. So its not that meaningful in my opinion. Hopefully it can break that barrier today and get on with it.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

The word around the trap is that BHP & RIO are going for a 20-40% Iron Ore Increase. Geez would'nt that be fantastic for MGX!! I go with the opinion that even if we get a 5% rise, well bonus!!!!!!
Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looks like its going to get hit heavy today. There is alot of sellers selling well under yesterdays close in the pre-open market at the moment.


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

Looks like that correction is possibly here. BHP Open Est. is 2080 down 3.0% as we speak. 


Cheers


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Would be good buying at 78cps today in my opinion, as we should see some kind of correction in the afternoon or tommorow.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Just looking for opinions on this stock as we could possibly be coming into some kind of down turn in the market. Any thoughts on it are appreciated. My opinion is that is will do fine at the bulk of the Iron Ore they get is exported to china and will continue to be exported even through a recession, and if Iron Ore prices are still set to go up, we are looking for greater profits that last years by far. Anything im overlooking?

Thanks.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

I am hanging on to this one. Worst case downside I can imagine would be 75c but I think it would bounce strongly there. Action happening with this nanjing pellet thing towards end of year. Still a bull run in iron ore.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Strong last hour of trading from MGX. Some big parcels went thru and managed to close on it's high for the day. Profit upgrade of $75 Million 05/06 and trading at 79.5. I think very cheap!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Strong last hour of trading from MGX. Some big parcels went thru and managed to close on it's high for the day. Profit upgrade of $75 Million 05/06 and trading at 79.5. I think very cheap!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Sorry, did i miss something?, $75 million profit upgrade? I dont see any announcement stating this. Could you please provide the source for that information johnno. Thanks.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Sorry, did i miss something?, $75 million profit upgrade? I dont see any announcement stating this. Could you please provide the source for that information johnno. Thanks.



El Ninjo, re the upgrade which is old news, just making people take note of the outlook. To be honest I don't need to ramp this stock as it will do it itself, but I do like to share the fun ride with fellow punters, because after all we are all aiming for the same thing at the end of it>PROFITS!!!!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

UBS & Barclays upgraded forecasts for base metal companys due to demand being much higher than expected from China.Growth from China in this last 1/4 have been greater than expected. Really not new news, but more of a confirmation  that we are in for a good chance for higher Iron Ore Prices once negotiations commence later this month!!!!!! Woohoo MGX


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

AA get those Pump & Dumps into ya @ 80cents. Watch out below for more of these to follow!! Me Thinks!!!!


----------



## ramjet

*Re: MGX*

You need only ask two questions to answer the fortunes of MGX ( I hold);

1. How much new iron ore supply has come on the mkt in the last year?

2. Has global/chinese steel production declined materially in the last year?

If you answer no to both, my belief is that MGX will be well over $1 once iron ore negotiations are settled. People seem obseesed with further increases, so long as they do not deviate materially lower, that is 20% or more prices are well above mid cycle.

Secondly RMI (I hold) is another to watch our for, MGX has a large stake in this puppy.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				ramjet said:
			
		

> You need only ask two questions to answer the fortunes of MGX ( I hold);
> 
> 1. How much new iron ore supply has come on the mkt in the last year?
> 
> 2. Has global/chinese steel production declined materially in the last year?
> 
> If you answer no to both, my belief is that MGX will be well over $1 once iron ore negotiations are settled. People seem obseesed with further increases, so long as they do not deviate materially lower, that is 20% or more prices are well above mid cycle.
> 
> Secondly RMI (I hold) is another to watch our for, MGX has a large stake in this puppy.



I like this stock, WHY? It has production,IT MAKES $$$ and yes the stock is being sold up and down by a trader....after all MGX has got a new Managing director who started today see the announcements.....and I hold over 200k shares and not selling at present price...read what their report said


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

read a very interesting article this evening on cnn.com and article written by a top analyst from Credit suisse Boston, Chris Potter and he basically said Iron Ore prices are a definate increase for the next year period and prices of coal will fall. Go to Google News type in Iron Ore then click on sort by date at top right then scroll down and you will see the link!!! mmm interesting perusing indeed!!!!
Cheers


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Hi guys, i've spent the last hour or so reading all your posts and doing a bit of research on MGX. Seems like you guys are in for a nice ride. I wouldn't mind joining in. What do you think is a good entry price at the moment? The charts suggest a cooling-down period to come. Should i wait based on the technicals? Or should i get in now based on the fundamentals? 

THanks, Kevin


----------



## hano53

*Re: MGX*

Ifffffff my grandmother had b*lls I would had two grandpops LOL :


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hi guys, i've spent the last hour or so reading all your posts and doing a bit of research on MGX. Seems like you guys are in for a nice ride. I wouldn't mind joining in. What do you think is a good entry price at the moment? The charts suggest a cooling-down period to come. Should i wait based on the technicals? Or should i get in now based on the fundamentals?
> 
> THanks, Kevin




Lucstar, I have been myself accumulating more of MGX everytime it dips under 80cents so me being a "Bull" would say I think no down side at around 80 cents and now plenty of support at these levels going by chart.
Upside potential is BIG.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Technically speaking, does anyone else see a cool-down period about to come in place or is it just me? 

Hey johnno, forgive my ignorance, but i didn't quite fully understand your post. Are you saying 80cents is a good entry point?


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MGX*

LT holder here -  eps of 7.2c with production set to increase, management fees from Chinese owned mines and their own mines to production.

Feel there is a bit of sideways movement ST though due mostly to the chart wedge pattern on the EOD and general market uncertainty (displayed by higher volitilities in the previous couple of weeks in terms of higher than normal index daily ranges)


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Technically speaking, does anyone else see a cool-down period about to come in place or is it just me?
> 
> Hey johnno, forgive my ignorance, but i didn't quite fully understand your post. Are you saying 80cents is a good entry point?




Obviuosly Lucstar.Knowing the fundementals of this company I cant see trading at these levels again as I said when it was in the low 60's.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hi guys, i've spent the last hour or so reading all your posts and doing a bit of research on MGX. Seems like you guys are in for a nice ride. I wouldn't mind joining in. What do you think is a good entry price at the moment? The charts suggest a cooling-down period to come. Should i wait based on the technicals? Or should i get in now based on the fundamentals?
> 
> THanks, Kevin




   Unfortunately I don't know about future entry points     but I have used bounces off my percieved trend line to enter twice in late Aug. and early Sept. and will continue to do so as long as the line holds. Only you can answer what constitutes a good entry point according to your personal trading plan. Do you use trendlines, support/resistance, patterns, vindicators, fundementals, or a combination of the above?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> El Ninjo, re the upgrade which is old news, just making people take note of the outlook. To be honest I don't need to ramp this stock as it will do it itself, but I do like to share the fun ride with fellow punters, because after all we are all aiming for the same thing at the end of it>PROFITS!!!!!



You just said it it all comes down to profit....and the way I see it...here is good production with GOOD profits....the SP is bound to rise as everything is falling into place..and good partners with DEEP pockets.....my target by year end is $1.25


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Hey Kauri, 
Thanks for posting the that chart.
Im reasonably unfamiliar with technical analysis, with only a very slight clue. So bare with me
What i would like to know is, where the price will go as it reaches the end of the triangle (in others, when the support line crosses over with the resistance line)?
Thanks, 
BTW, excuse my poor wording.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hey Kauri,
> Thanks for posting the that chart.
> Im reasonably unfamiliar with technical analysis, with only a very slight clue. So bare with me
> What i would like to know is, where the price will go as it reaches the end of the triangle (in others, when the support line crosses over with the resistance line)?
> Thanks,
> BTW, excuse my poor wording.



Re support...80 cents at present where will the SP head ?..thats easy with a forecast of $78 million profit and the Chinese partner paying 80 cents for their shares in this group...its $1 plus you are looking at....65 cents I would mortgage my house.....its pretty cast iron.....except if the whole world went into a depression..not very likely...so my forecasts are, and I have proven that I have been correct...are $1 plus.......as they are really getting into the swing I own 200k shares


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Wow chicken, u've got 200k shares in this guy. Quite a big stake. Wish you and anyone else who holds all the best of luck. This company does seem pretty solid to me as well. Too bad im onli young and only have $2000 to spend on this guy. My other funds locked up in NGF (norton gold fields). Anyone else interested in NGF?


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

200,000 shares chicken?, thats some investment there. I wish i had that to invest. Unfortunately i am still a student(not for much longer), so i dont exactly have alot of money lying around.

The line in the previous posted chart seems to be holding quite well, unlike many other support lines in recent weeks. The coming weeks should be interesting for this one. I'll be holding onto this one for a while, it has great potential in my opinion. Im not going to be as ambitious as chicken though, im think it will reach around $1 before the new year.

Good luck to all who hold this, not that we need it, luck has nothing to do with it. 

 :goodnight


----------



## Mofra

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Re support...80 cents at present where will the SP head ?..thats easy with a forecast of $78 million profit and the Chinese partner paying 80 cents for their shares in this group...



Chicken, someone is reading your posts - u/boat in at the 80c buy level for most of yesterday


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				Mofra said:
			
		

> Chicken, someone is reading your posts - u/boat in at the 80c buy level for most of yesterday




Its a pitty then, because chickens support line has now extended to 81cents.
I dont think it'll go that low again.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*



> Its a pitty then, because chickens support line has now extended to 81cents.




MGX closed at 0.8 today. Does this mean the support has been broken?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> MGX closed at 0.8 today. Does this mean the support has been broken?




  Still holding for mine..personally I would have short term support at 80c...    
 Probably too close to the pointy end of the blue triangle now for it to be relevant, but am hoping for a bounce off black trend line,


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

MGX chart has formed a "FLAG" so lets hope that it holds this 80cent.Personally i think it will bounce of it as it has before on a few occassions.Decision making time for MGX according to the chart!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> MGX chart has formed a "FLAG" so lets hope that it holds this 80cent.Personally i think it will bounce of it as it has before on a few occassions.Decision making time for MGX according to the chart!!



Yes decision time...saying their profits will be around $74 million...and Rio Tinto are negotiating new contracts for iron ore...forecasts are for another increase of price by 5-10 % some others say up to 20% quite frankly I can see only a 10% increase last year it rose by 74% so the Chinese are buying heavy from Brazille.....so If we have even a 5% increase it will reflect on this share price...I feel we will see a $1 by Xmas as the company is now very profitable and with the Chinese involved....they will get their metal from MGX looking after their supplies....this share is being worked hard as someone is taking a position in this stock.....Accumilation taking place at 80-81 cents


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

There is big buying support at 80cents 3 large parcels of shares went through but finished at 80.5 cents....as soon as the price of iron ore has been negotiated by Rio we will see the price rise as a small% increase is being thought....Kauri I feel it will bounce of trendline.....very soon


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> There is big buying support at 80cents 3 large parcels of shares went through but finished at 80.5 cents....as soon as the price of iron ore has been negotiated by Rio we will see the price rise as a small% increase is being thought....Kauri I feel it will bounce of trendline.....very soon




Wow, thats the most volume MGX has had for a while i think. Someone big is accumulating at 80c. Also means someone is selling big. I'd like to know some more information on who they are, but unfortunatley i dont think we'll get that.

I agree, it will bounce back. That solid 80c for a few days had me a little worried, but i think in general its pretty safe, if it wasn't i would have my dosh in there. On the 6 month chart on comsec, its hugging the support line at the moment. So we'll see what happens, it has to close at 81c or higher tommorow.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*



> it has to close at 81c or higher tommorow.




You're rite, would be a good sign is MGX closes at 81c or higher tommorrow
But i wouldn't be too worried if it doesn't. 
Firstly, i usually give myself a 3 percent buffer above or below the trend line in order to determine actual breakouts. 
Also, MGX is quite solid in terms of fundamental analysis (long term).


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> You're rite, would be a good sign is MGX closes at 81c or higher tommorrow
> But i wouldn't be too worried if it doesn't.
> Firstly, i usually give myself a 3 percent buffer above or below the trend line in order to determine actual breakouts.
> Also, MGX is quite solid in terms of fundamental analysis (long term).




Well the undisclosed @ 80cents has got very big pockets as 1million units wer'e accumulated this afternoon. Institution it has to be for sure.This is fantastic!!!! The U Buyer was still there at close of trade.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Wow, thats the most volume MGX has had for a while i think. Someone big is accumulating at 80c. Also means someone is selling big. I'd like to know some more information on who they are, but unfortunatley i dont think we'll get that.
> 
> I agree, it will bounce back. That solid 80c for a few days had me a little worried, but i think in general its pretty safe, if it wasn't i would have my dosh in there. On the 6 month chart on comsec, its hugging the support line at the moment. So we'll see what happens, it has to close at 81c or higher tommorow.




Possibly OPTION holders floggin shares at a 400% profit?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*

Or Sum Hung Hai out of Hong Kong raising their stake.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Or Sum Hung Hai out of Hong Kong raising their stake.



Nah oneg hung low


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Just out of curiousity,
On comsec's market depth for MGX, it shows the U bid as "26,475/u"
What does the 26,475 represent?


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Just out of curiousity,
> On comsec's market depth for MGX, it shows the U bid as "26,475/u"
> What does the 26,475 represent?




The 26,475 represents the ammount that is specified at 80cents per share, that isn't in the undisclosed(/u) ammount.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Oh so for example, if i was to put a buy order at 80cents. Then my quantity would join the 26,475 quantity rite? The U bid is kept separate? Is that what it is?


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Oh so for example, if i was to put a buy order at 80cents. Then my quantity would join the 26,475 quantity rite? The U bid is kept separate? Is that what it is?




Correct.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Hmm...the U bid has been pulled. 
What does this mean?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*

Maybe it's been filled.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Maybe it's been filled.



Looks as if someone is buying..sp fell but back to 80 cents...all in small parcels...its being worked by someone hard


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Looks as if someone is buying..sp fell but back to 80 cents...all in small parcels...its being worked by someone hard



we are having pure manipulation here someone does not want the stock to rise......MGX is a company which is now making a good profit and they have a 1 billion tones of Iron ore...this one read what MGX say about their forecasts etc.....some one is trying to buy shares as cheap as possible....taking a position...watch the SP in DECEMBER.......MGX is the 4th largest supplier of Iron Ore from Australia


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> we are having pure manipulation here someone does not want the stock to rise......MGX is a company which is now making a good profit and they have a 1 billion tones of Iron ore...this one read what MGX say about their forecasts etc.....some one is trying to buy shares as cheap as possible....taking a position...watch the SP in DECEMBER.......MGX is the 4th largest supplier of Iron Ore from Australia



Airview just had a article saying 2006 Steel market likely better than 2005 MERRIL says...the one manipulating..is doing it in stages...few sellers.....been going on for the last 6 weeks....very clever the way it is done ....


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> we are having pure manipulation here someone does not want the stock to rise......MGX is a company which is now making a good profit and they have a 1 billion tones of Iron ore...this one read what MGX say about their forecasts etc.....some one is trying to buy shares as cheap as possible....taking a position...watch the SP in DECEMBER.......MGX is the 4th largest supplier of Iron Ore from Australia





   Chicken....Ypu can put me down as one in on the manipulation conspiracy.         Have sold out at .79c as for whatever reason there is no longer the momentum I need to remain in. I will be watching her though for a possible re-entry if conditions change..  Best of luck with yours.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Chicken....Ypu can put me down as one in on the manipulation conspiracy.         Have sold out at .79c as for whatever reason there is no longer the momentum I need to remain in. I will be watching her though for a possible re-entry if conditions change..  Best of luck with yours.



Whatever you say...there is one buyer who is snapping away any shares at your price...same thing happened in ZFX....I hold as I am NOT a day trader....and my research says that the company is more than sound and so why sell as this company has some great announcements in the pipeline for December....its now the 4th largest Iron Ore producer...with over 1 billion tones of ore to export ..very profitable with great cash flow and their partner is Chinas 4th largest Iron producer...at this price its a definit hold.....So..some one can see what I can see.....a great profitable iron ore minig company.......with a cheap entry.....


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*

Chicken...I agree with you..  if I held MGX in my long term portfolio ( which I dont ) then I would still be in, but in my short and medium term holdings I need movement, either up or down, to justify staying in, otherwise I am tying up my trading capital when it could be better used on stocks with current momentum.     Just the way I trade.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Chicken...I agree with you..  if I held MGX in my long term portfolio ( which I dont ) then I would still be in, but in my short and medium term holdings I need movement, either up or down, to justify staying in, otherwise I am tying up my trading capital when it could be better used on stocks with current momentum.     Just the way I trade.




You will be sorry Kauri.I am a short term trader and movement will occur once this manipulation ceases! You will be sorry for selling.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> You will be sorry Kauri.I am a short term trader and movement will occur once this manipulation ceases! You will be sorry for selling.




    Yes johno    I probably will be...I have looked back at some of my exits with the benefit of hindsight more than once and been sorry  :swear: ...... however after the current conslidation (manipulation or whatever ) , if the momentum returns then so shall I. Until then I will be following what I identify as moving stocks. Its just the way I trade.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Yes johno    I probably will be...I have looked back at some of my exits with the benefit of hindsight more than once and been sorry  :swear: ...... however after the current conslidation (manipulation or whatever ) , if the momentum returns then so shall I. Until then I will be following what I identify as moving stocks. Its just the way I trade.




By no means did I mean to rub it in, but i have experience of a fair bit of a trading behind me, and I know that when a company has such sound fundementals behind it such as MGX, you dont sell.It is my humble opinion and I do speak from experience as I have done the same as you before!!!!All a learning process!!!!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> You will be sorry Kauri.I am a short term trader and movement will occur once this manipulation ceases! You will be sorry for selling.




 johno.... I hope you dont mind my asking but as a short term trader what was your entry signal on MGX and where do you have your stop set?  Thanks


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> johno.... I hope you dont mind my asking but as a short term trader what was your entry signal on MGX and where do you have your stop set?  Thanks




I will be honest with you. Purchased 330,000 @ 61cents June/July,then purchased 370,000 June/July@ 67cents then purchased 300,000 @ 79.8average mid October everytime it dipped under 80cents!!
My stop loss is at 72cents!!!! Because I have such a big parcel I have allowed an extra 2 cents above my average.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Holy Sh*t Johnno,
Excuse my language, but thats one hell of a stake in a company. I look at your stake and then take a look at mine ($2000 worth) and i just cant help but wish i was you. Lol. I sure hope all goes well for us.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Holy Sh*t Johnno,
> Excuse my language, but thats one hell of a stake in a company. I look at your stake and then take a look at mine ($2000 worth) and i just cant help but wish i was you. Lol. I sure hope all goes well for us.




It is a big holding, however half of it is basically profit money that came from a large parcel of HDR's which I purchased mid year at $1.70 and sold at $2.25 and the  other part came from a 30,000 parcel of BHP's at 17.90 and sold recently for exactly $3 profit per share @ $21.90.


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

In my experiance, as soon as i sell a stock that i know will go up for what ever reason, it has always gone up and i have missed out on quite a few dollars. Im not going to make that mistake with this one as i know its got excellent prospects ahead.

If i had more hard earned, i'd be buying in right now aswell. Even though support is temporarily broken, it will come back soon in my opinion.

As per usual for mining, late november/december has alot coming in the way of announcments which should fuel a bit of movement in it. 
I dont plan on selling out until atleast $1.10 and i think even then i would be cutting my feet short in the long run.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> In my experiance, as soon as i sell a stock that i know will go up for what ever reason, it has always gone up and i have missed out on quite a few dollars. Im not going to make that mistake with this one as i know its got excellent prospects ahead.
> 
> If i had more hard earned, i'd be buying in right now aswell. Even though support is temporarily broken, it will come back soon in my opinion.
> 
> As per usual for mining, late november/december has alot coming in the way of announcments which should fuel a bit of movement in it.
> I dont plan on selling out until atleast $1.10 and i think even then i would be cutting my feet short in the long run.



Well said....it opened at 80.5 cents....yesterday was a buy NOT a sell...there is someone trying to buy as many as cheap as possible....good announcements coming for December...I am holding as this up and down means B all to me...the brokers have a target of $1.25 on this stock and the valuations will bear it out...selling at 79 cents...as it has not really broke the trend line if it went below by 5% then yes it has but yesterday was a pure manipulation...sell some stock Cheaper and wait for the mugs to jump on....the profits this company will generate will be excelent.....have a look at Portman which is being taken over and you talking $5 plus at present...MGX at present prices are cheap...just my opinion....do your research and find out.....


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I will be honest with you. Purchased 330,000 @ 61cents June/July,then purchased 370,000 June/July@ 67cents then purchased 300,000 @ 79.8average mid October everytime it dipped under 80cents!!
> My stop loss is at 72cents!!!! Because I have such a big parcel I have allowed an extra 2 cents above my average.



Johnno, I own 200k shares and thought that is good but yours yes this one will do well for us..I think its the wait which sometimes gets you but MGX will be worth the wait..also I see the Goverments future fund of $170 billion  will be invested in the local market so we are in for a ride..reading the BRW there is an article about the Chinese wanting to invest more heavy in the Australian market...and it looks as if a wall of money will hit the local market...so hold tight and enjoy the ride...its starting to get intresting........watch December....also on the technical side yesterday was just a sell down by a few shares hoping MUGS will jump on...did not quite work..they just picked up a few not many.......yhe trendline is still holding see todays opening price


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Johnno, I own 200k shares and thought that is good but yours yes this one will do well for us..I think its the wait which sometimes gets you but MGX will be worth the wait..also I see the Goverments future fund of $170 billion will be invested in the local market so we are in for a ride..reading the BRW there is an article about the Chinese wanting to invest more heavy in the Australian market...and it looks as if a wall of money will hit the local market...so hold tight and enjoy the ride...its starting to get intresting........watch December....also on the technical side yesterday was just a sell down by a few shares hoping MUGS will jump on...did not quite work..they just picked up a few not many.......yhe trendline is still holding see todays opening price




  170 billion....are you sure...I thought it was around 16 billion over the next couple of years, going to about 140 billion by 2020.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> 170 billion....are you sure...I thought it was around 16 billion over the next couple of years, going to about 140 billion by 2020.



I got those figures from BRW November issue...all I know its a lot of money.... and see it was a buy yesterday...one can easly think the market goes down but as I said...you sold they are happy and the market goes up...I sold 20k shares in ZFX...made a profit but low and behold it just went up,,,,up and bl.up....but I was happy with my $$$ I made


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I got those figures from BRW November issue...all I know its a lot of money.... and see it was a buy yesterday...one can easly think the market goes down but as I said...you sold they are happy and the market goes up...I sold 20k shares in ZFX...made a profit but low and behold it just went up,,,,up and bl.up....but I was happy with my $$$ I made




   Chicken...for me it was a sell...what was a buy was CSM, per my post in the CSM thread yesterday. CSM via cfd's @ $3.20 yesterday...out @3.33 today... around 35% return .2 trading days...MGX would have to have gone to $1.00 plus for me to get that return.  Its not whether it goes up or down with me, its the momentum.   _Its just the way I trade.   :bier: _


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Chicken...for me it was a sell...what was a buy was CSM, per my post in the CSM thread yesterday. CSM via cfd's @ $3.20 yesterday...out @3.33 today... around 35% return .2 trading days...MGX would have to have gone to $1.00 plus for me to get that return.  Its not whether it goes up or down with me, its the momentum.   _Its just the way I trade.   :bier: _




Correct me if I'm wrong Kauri, but $3.20 to $3.33 is roughly only 4% not 35%


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Correct me if I'm wrong Kauri, but $3.20 to $3.33 is roughly only 4% not 35%




  johno...sorry if it was not clear...with cfd,s you put down a % of the trades worth, similar to margin trading.... so 31,000 CSM @ $3.2 would cost $99200. CSM is available at 10% so you put up $9920 plus commission. Selling  31,000 @ $3.33 gives you $103230 ....so 103230-99200 gives you a $4030 return on your $9920... and so after commission and interest for the 2 days held............:drink:   My shout


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> 170 billion....are you sure...I thought it was around 16 billion over the next couple of years, going to about 140 billion by 2020.



I checked where I got the information...it is written in tuesdays Brisbane Courier Mail in the business section..Costello being interviewed and thats where these figures came from.....as I said before there is a mighty lot of money will be seeking a home....just that you know by the way Kauri look at MAP and you get this small % movement all the time....


----------



## el_ninj0

*Iron Ore Price Rises*

Could be some interesting stuff going on this month if the banks are right.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bank flags 30pc iron ore rise

JOHN PHACEAS

Chinese sabre rattling over unacceptably high iron ore prices looks certain to fall on deaf ears when annual price talks resume this month, with fresh industry research indicating prices could rise another 30 per cent in 2006.

In two separate client notes, US investment bank Merrill Lynch said iron ore suppliers were still unable to keep pace with China-fuelled demand growth despite committing billions to upgrade the capacity of mines in the Pilbara and Brazil.

"China's ramp-up in crude steel capacity to an estimated 430 million tonnes by 2005 from 127 million tonnes in 2000 has put increasing pressure on Chinese and global iron ore supply, leading to a substantial increase in imports," the bank said.

It believed forecasts that Chinese ore imports would double from 208 million tonnes in 2004 to 420 million tonnes in 2010 were "way too conservative".

It did not change its base-case expectation that iron ore prices will rise 10 per cent in 2006 and remain flat in 2007, but said it now believed there was a strong chance prices could rise even more.

"Our forecast remains for a plus-10 per cent outcome, however the very tight market and large deficit we forecast is pointing to a potential 20-30 per cent settlement," Merrill Lynch said.

Merrill Lynch is the most bullish of the big investment banks on iron ore prices, but most are now predicting prices will rise 10-15 per cent next year ahead of a rollover in 2007.

That puts miners on a collision course with Chinese steelmakers, who are hoping prices will fall 5-10 per cent next year in the wake of February's massive 71.5 per cent jump.

But BHP Billiton has already flagged it could again seek an extra premium to recoup the so-called freight differential with supplies from Brazil. Australian ore already costs Chinese buyers about $US20 ($26) a tonne less to import than Brazilian ore because of the shorter shipping distance.

Still, freight rates have plunged in recent months and Merrill Lynch said a 10 per cent price rise could be claimed as a victory by both sides.

"Landed iron ore (prices) in China may prove to be at levels similar to those in 2005," it said.

But to boost their negotiating power and lock in future supplies, Chinese steelmakers have been aggressively investing in new iron ore mines, especially in Australia.

Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group, which is planning a $2.4 billion iron ore development in the Pilbara, and emerging WA miners Midwest Corporation, Murchison Metals and Mount Gibson Iron have all drawn substantial interest from Asian steel mills.

At Fortescue's annual meeting yesterday, Mr Forrest said he remained confident of securing financing for the 45 million tonnes a year project within four months.

"We believe that putting together the finance package is only a matter of time, and we have made very good progress, I think, on a number of fronts with that," Mr Forrest said.

"Unfortunately, because of the delicate nature of those discussions I can't be specific."

Fortescue's preferred option was to sell equity in its Chichester Range project to a major joint venture partner, and it was open to "all options", including potential partnerships with Chinese steel mills, he said.

Iron ore shares rose across the board yesterday. Rio rose $1.62 to $59.80, BHP climbed 26 ¢ to $21.35, Fortescue added 8 ¢ to $4.85 and Mt Gibson rose 2.5 ¢ to 81.5 ¢.

from: http://www.thewest.com.au/20051109/business/tw-business-home-sto132677.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking very interesting.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Once Rio,BHP negotiated the Iron ore price MGX will start moving again...at present one broker is playing this stock like a fiddle up and down.....its forecast that the price could rise as much as 20%....there was an anouncement by Rio that at present we have a slight shortage...so it will be intresting to see what happends in the next 2 weeks...MGX share price may knock up as high as $1....


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

Hi guys my first post please treat with care   

When will MGX pay a dividend! does the market expert it or is it up to the directors appreciate any help

cheers laurie


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Once Rio,BHP negotiated the Iron ore price MGX will start moving again...at present one broker is playing this stock like a fiddle up and down.....its forecast that the price could rise as much as 20%....there was an anouncement by Rio that at present we have a slight shortage...so it will be intresting to see what happends in the next 2 weeks...MGX share price may knock up as high as $1....




So obvious someone is manipulating this stock at present to Buy in.Never before has there been a heavy sell side on MGX as it is now, and why would you even consider selling now. Like giving up in a marathon with the finish line in sight and I should know, thats one thing a strong determined mind does not do!!!! 

MGX is about to move!!


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

I realise that MGX is being manipulated
But i dont quite understand how
How one of yous explain to me how you can manipulate MGX's share price in order to BUY IN
Could you give an example scenario so i can understand
Also, how can u tell its being manipulated or is it just market forces?

Much appreciated,


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> I realise that MGX is being manipulated
> But i dont quite understand how
> How one of yous explain to me how you can manipulate MGX's share price in order to BUY IN
> Could you give an example scenario so i can understand
> Also, how can u tell its being manipulated or is it just market forces?
> 
> Much appreciated,



How can you tell....1 buyer 1 seller....same broker...he can sell it down or up...and this is what is happening...this manipulation has been going on fo 6 weeks...as soon as new prices are known for iron ore we will see some action here someone is buying in and taking a position..thats why the broker or trader is keeping it around 80 cents but not for much longer as the new iron ore price will be known..and the forecast is up to 20% increase in price....for iron ore...the company has 1 billion tones in the ground...should be moving soon....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> How can you tell....1 buyer 1 seller....same broker...he can sell it down or up...and this is what is happening...this manipulation has been going on fo 6 weeks...as soon as new prices are known for iron ore we will see some action here someone is buying in and taking a position..thats why the broker or trader is keeping it around 80 cents but not for much longer as the new iron ore price will be known..and the forecast is up to 20% increase in price....for iron ore...the company has 1 billion tones in the ground...should be moving soon....




Don't expect a definate figure on Iron Ore pricing  for 06/07 til 1st Quarter 06. Forecast realistically is around 10%. I much prefer to under estimate, because as we know, the market magnifies bad news at times. Any % increase should really be   looked at as a BONUS!!


----------



## TheProphet

*Re: MGX*

guys MGX has had price manipulation since MAY! Well in my opinion at least.

Pls note they are being offered as cfd's in the next couple of weeks. So we should see some serious action!!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheProphet said:
			
		

> guys MGX has had price manipulation since MAY! Well in my opinion at least.
> 
> 
> 
> Pls note they are being offered as cfd's in the next couple of weeks. So we should see some serious action!!!




E-Trade has MGX CFD's on the go!! Agree manipulation has been going since May. This will fly shortly. Resouce upgrades, Iron Ore Increases, BFS all go, forecast profits are huge, big Chinese backing. What a ride we are about to partake in!!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> How can you tell....1 buyer 1 seller....same broker...he can sell it down or up...and this is what is happening...this manipulation has been going on fo 6 weeks...as soon as new prices are known for iron ore we will see some action here someone is buying in and taking a position..thats why the broker or trader is keeping it around 80 cents but not for much longer as the new iron ore price will be known..and the forecast is up to 20% increase in price....for iron ore...the company has 1 billion tones in the ground...should be moving soon....




Chicken, I have just been reading that China intends to spend 62billion dollars  over the next 5 years on 6,000new trains and 1,500 kilometres of train lines.When i read this type of material, excitement about MGX overwhelms me!!! Strap yourself in for lift off!!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken, I have just been reading that China intends to spend 62billion dollars  over the next 5 years on 6,000new trains and 1,500 kilometres of train lines.When i read this type of material, excitement about MGX overwhelms me!!! Strap yourself in for lift off!!!



I think this share will start showing some life..soon, as some serious money will come this way...CDFs...and iron ore price rise will fire up this one.....they are making good $$$$$....should flow through soon.....


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I think this share will start showing some life..soon, as some serious money will come this way...CDFs...and iron ore price rise will fire up this one.....they are making good $$$$$....should flow through soon.....




I dont think this will move until the iron ore prices are released now. It had its chance, but didn't do anything. So until december/january we wont see alot of movement IMO.

Can anyone tell me how the brokerage firms decide to cfd on companies?
Any why is mgx getting added to cfd's now and hasn't been before?

Thanks.


----------



## keepitreal

*Re: MGX*

Chicken, 

how can you tell if the buyer an seller are the same broker.. i use power etrade do i have the ability to see this?


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

I would also like to know that keepitreal? I use Commsec it's market depth just has numbers against buy/sell!

cheers laurie


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken, I have just been reading that China intends to spend 62billion dollars over the next 5 years on 6,000new trains and 1,500 kilometres of train lines.When i read this type of material, excitement about MGX overwhelms me!!! Strap yourself in for lift off!!!




   Why....  
    I would be looking for the company that can get $62,000,000,000 for 1500 km of track and 6000 trains and putting everything I had on it.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> I dont think this will move until the iron ore prices are released now. It had its chance, but didn't do anything. So until december/january we wont see alot of movement IMO.
> 
> Can anyone tell me how the brokerage firms decide to cfd on companies?
> Any why is mgx getting added to cfd's now and hasn't been before?
> 
> Thanks.




El ninjo, you will see alot of S/P movement before the finalised Iron Ore Price agreements are agreed upon. Can't say any more!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> El ninjo, you will see alot of S/P movement before the finalised Iron Ore Price agreements are agreed upon. Can't say any more!!



Johnno261...what you are saying is what I can see...its sticking out like a thumb print...this SP will move suddenly very much...some one is buying like mad to get them at 80 cents....must be a broker who sees what I can...and as soon as it moves higher the buyer relieases shares on to the market....to keep the price at around 80 cents...and after studying the chart since May someone is been playing this game and buying like mad....see those bigger parcels a week back.....so it will get very intresting soon.......


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				keepitreal said:
			
		

> Chicken,
> 
> how can you tell if the buyer an seller are the same broker.. i use power etrade do i have the ability to see this?



Some one is buying as many shares as possible at 80 cents....what the broker or trader does if price rises...puts some shares back into the market at say 79.5 cents to keep the market at that price....but for how long this is been going on since MAY.....maybe, wanting a takeover at a certain price....the big Brazillian is scouting the iron companies..they are starting coal mining in Queensland..and THEY HAVE DEEP<DEEP pockets.....look at BRW november 10th..December 7 2005 issue page 24...the big Brazilian...CVRD....and it would suit them to buy this company as they also supply Iron ore...after all they are the largest in the world...this is a thought on the subject,,,,after all Tim Treadgold wrote the article


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Some one is buying as many shares as possible at 80 cents....what the broker or trader does if price rises...puts some shares back into the market at say 79.5 cents to keep the market at that price....but for how long this is been going on since MAY.....maybe, wanting a takeover at a certain price....the big Brazillian is scouting the iron companies..they are starting coal mining in Queensland..and THEY HAVE DEEP<DEEP pockets.....look at BRW november 10th..December 7 2005 issue page 24...the big Brazilian...CVRD....and it would suit them to buy this company as they also supply Iron ore...after all they are the largest in the world...this is a thought on the subject,,,,after all Tim Treadgold wrote the article



Look at Tradingroom the sales and the last sale was for 10000 shares at 80 cents...all the rest look how many shares were sold a lot of parcels at 51 shares 162 shares...just blatant manipulation by a broker...check it out...unbelievable...there you can see its a broker who is playing or taking a strong position...or wanting to take the company over this is been happening since MARCH.....how much stock has the broker aquired at 80 cents? as it seems to be happening everyday so far....check it out at tradingroom...depth of sales......and a couple parcels of 100k shares all bought quickly


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Just had news from Google re MGX...looks as if BHP,RIO,CRVS...are negotiating for an increase of 15.5% ....MGX said if they missed a shipment it usually is taken from them within a few hours the market is tight....MGX as they are smaller than the 3 large companies sells at prices negotiated by the 3....if thats the case we will soon see a movement in the SP..I am holding


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Just had news from Google re MGX...looks as if BHP,RIO,CRVS...are negotiating for an increase of 15.5% ....MGX said if they missed a shipment it usually is taken from them within a few hours the market is tight....MGX as they are smaller than the 3 large companies sells at prices negotiated by the 3....if thats the case we will soon see a movement in the SP..I am holding




Chicken, can you post the link to that article please?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Chicken, can you post the link to that article please?



go to Google search..type in mt gibsonironore....and you will get all the Mt gibson articles on the subject...you can go on their alert email and they send it to you as soon as news are out..looks as if iron ore will rise further in price...good for MGX


----------



## Yippyio

*Re: MGX*

Recent changes in directors interests;

Craig redhead - Sold 100 000 ordinary shares
Luke Tonkin - Issued 5 000 000 options
Alan Rule - Issued 2 000 000 options


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> Recent changes in directors interests;
> 
> Craig redhead - Sold 100 000 ordinary shares
> Luke Tonkin - Issued 5 000 000 options
> Alan Rule - Issued 2 000 000 options



what you forgot to post Craig Redhead still owns nearly 1000000 shares so he sold some to get some cash....not a big deal


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Some one is buying as many shares as possible at 80 cents....what the broker or trader does if price rises...puts some shares back into the market at say 79.5 cents to keep the market at that price....but for how long this is been going on since MAY.....maybe, wanting a takeover at a certain price....the big Brazillian is scouting the iron companies..they are starting coal mining in Queensland..and THEY HAVE DEEP........




_If the big Brazilian wants in they had better hurry up..... _ 


15 September 2005 

The Manager
Company Announcements
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Level 10, 20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000​​*MOUNT GIBSON IRON REVISES TERMS OF PROPOSED JOINT VENTURE WITH SHOUGANG GROUP
*​*
*

Mr Brian Johnson, Managing Director of Mount Gibson Iron Limited (ASX Code “MGX”) advises that negotiations with the Shougang Group to jointly develop the Extension Hill Magnetite Project at Mt Gibson are progressing satisfactorily. The Participation Agreement with Shougang has been revised to incorporate the following:​• agreement by Shougang that it intends to take up a 50% shareholding in the slurry pipeline to be constructed between Mt Gibson and Geraldton in addition to a 50% interest in the mine development. The revised equity contributions including that for the pipeline are as follows:

Shougang Group: A$174 million
MGI Group: A$74 million plus past costs, BFS, and mining leases
• agreement by Shougang that it is basically satisfied in relation to its technical due diligence review of the project;
• extension of time for completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study (“BFS”) to 15 December 2005 to allow China Metallurgical Construction Corporation (“MCC”) to submit an offer for the turnkey construction of the crushing plant and concentrator for the project;
• joint reviews of the BFS to be conducted in mid October and mid November 2005 before its finalisation in December 2005;
• elimination of any specific financial or technical outcomes in the BFS as a prerequisite to Shougang’s investment;
• repricing of Shougang’s (or its nominee) option to subscribe for up to 15% of MGX’s issued shares (approximately 60 million shares) at a fixed price of 75 cents per share (conditional upon Shougang taking up a 50% interest in the project); and
• Shougang having the right to complete the contemplated transactions at any time up to 31 January 2006.
Mr Johnson said that the two month delay to completion of the BFS should not impact on the development schedule for the Project as engineering design was being progressed on most longlead items and mine prestripping at Extension Hill was still scheduled to commence in the second quarter of 2006. He also said that he was confident Shougang would give final notice of their unconditional commitment to participate in the project, earlier rather than later. Joint negotiations with project financiers will commence next month. Shougang should be an ideal partner for Mount Gibson Iron as they have extensive experience in mining and concentrating magnetite ores at their major mines in China and Peru, and are providing constructive input to the BFS.
Yours sincerely,
MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED
*Angela Dent*
*Company Secretary*
Enquiries: Mr Brian Johnson or Mr Alan Rule
Managing Director Finance Director
Telephone: 61 8 9426-7500
Email: admin@mtgibsoniron.com.au
​


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> chicken said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some one is buying as many shares as possible at 80 cents....what the broker or trader does if price rises...puts some shares back into the market at say 79.5 cents to keep the market at that price....but for how long this is been going on since MAY.....maybe, wanting a takeover at a certain price....the big Brazillian is scouting the iron companies..they are starting coal mining in Queensland..and THEY HAVE DEEP........
> 
> _If the big Brazilian wants in they had better hurry up..... _
> 
> 
> 15 September 2005
> 
> The Manager
> Company Announcements
> Australian Stock Exchange Limited
> Level 10, 20 Bond Street
> SYDNEY NSW 2000​​*MOUNT GIBSON IRON REVISES TERMS OF PROPOSED JOINT VENTURE WITH SHOUGANG GROUP
> *​*
> *
> 
> Mr Brian Johnson, Managing Director of Mount Gibson Iron Limited (ASX Code “MGX”) advises that negotiations with the Shougang Group to jointly develop the Extension Hill Magnetite Project at Mt Gibson are progressing satisfactorily. The Participation Agreement with Shougang has been revised to incorporate the following:​• agreement by Shougang that it intends to take up a 50% shareholding in the slurry pipeline to be constructed between Mt Gibson and Geraldton in addition to a 50% interest in the mine development. The revised equity contributions including that for the pipeline are as follows:
> 
> Shougang Group: A$174 million
> MGI Group: A$74 million plus past costs, BFS, and mining leases
> • agreement by Shougang that it is basically satisfied in relation to its technical due diligence review of the project;
> • extension of time for completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study (“BFS”) to 15 December 2005 to allow China Metallurgical Construction Corporation (“MCC”) to submit an offer for the turnkey construction of the crushing plant and concentrator for the project;
> • joint reviews of the BFS to be conducted in mid October and mid November 2005 before its finalisation in December 2005;
> • elimination of any specific financial or technical outcomes in the BFS as a prerequisite to Shougang’s investment;
> • repricing of Shougang’s (or its nominee) option to subscribe for up to 15% of MGX’s issued shares (approximately 60 million shares) at a fixed price of 75 cents per share (conditional upon Shougang taking up a 50% interest in the project); and
> • Shougang having the right to complete the contemplated transactions at any time up to 31 January 2006.
> Mr Johnson said that the two month delay to completion of the BFS should not impact on the development schedule for the Project as engineering design was being progressed on most longlead items and mine prestripping at Extension Hill was still scheduled to commence in the second quarter of 2006. He also said that he was confident Shougang would give final notice of their unconditional commitment to participate in the project, earlier rather than later. Joint negotiations with project financiers will commence next month. Shougang should be an ideal partner for Mount Gibson Iron as they have extensive experience in mining and concentrating magnetite ores at their major mines in China and Peru, and are providing constructive input to the BFS.
> Yours sincerely,
> MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED
> *Angela Dent*
> *Company Secretary*
> Enquiries: Mr Brian Johnson or Mr Alan Rule
> Managing Director Finance Director
> Telephone: 61 8 9426-7500
> Email: admin@mtgibsoniron.com.au
> ​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks as if I have eggs on my face..the Chinese must be the buyers or a broker...some one is buying as many as they can get...price should move soon...just my thoughts
Click to expand...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Talk about selling a share down....seller at 78 cents only 123 shares.. 1 seller. also 1 seller at 78.5 cents 25000 shares...that broker or trader would have a buy order in at 77.5 cents.....so if you want more shares at lower prices you just walk them up or down....as soon as we get a better update from mgx the sooner the Sp will react.....this is a sound company with a hugh upside....the Chinese have to take up their half of the business by January 2006...so watch this space......


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Talk about selling a share down....seller at 78 cents only 123 shares.. 1 seller. also 1 seller at 78.5 cents 25000 shares...that broker or trader would have a buy order in at 77.5 cents.....so if you want more shares at lower prices you just walk them up or down....as soon as we get a better update from mgx the sooner the Sp will react.....this is a sound company with a hugh upside....the Chinese have to take up their half of the business by January 2006...so watch this space......




Hi Chicken

Are there expected and reliable projections of increased ore sales? If so how much percentage have they placed on volume to increse by for the next 5-6 yrs?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

AGM today !!! Hopefully our "Buy" side can look a little stronger Today, but it is to be expected I guess with Shougang taking up there % of MGX.Manipulation still going on. Would'nt it be great to see that window of opp. for Shougang's Broker dissappear with some really good news that will shoot the S/P up and they can pay more for it, which will benefit the existing shareholders and the PTY LTD!!!!!!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Just been reading an actual excerpt from some big name analysts and Brokers regarding the Iron Ore Price Negotiations for 06/07 and quite simply they said prices will increase. 
LINK:
Go to HotCopper and the posting was by andrewa under the mgx heading posted in the last couple of days! Interesting reading!!!!!!!!!
A very tight supply of iron ore is the industry standard at present!!!! GOOD!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hi Chicken
> 
> Are there expected and reliable projections of increased ore sales? If so how much percentage have they placed on volume to increse by for the next 5-6 yrs?



It is well known..and read what the company said that they are stepping up production to 5 million tons read their news....and as Johnno posted that the AGM meeting takes place today some intresting news will come out..someone is keeping this sp to abot 75cto 80cents one does not have to be a rocket scintist it sticks out...as soon as the sp rises a seller comes in something is up we will see today.....also one seller at 68 cents just to keep the price down check it yourself....hoping someone will jump in to sell


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Just been reading an actual excerpt from some big name analysts and Brokers regarding the Iron Ore Price Negotiations for 06/07 and quite simply they said prices will increase.
> LINK:
> Go to HotCopper and the posting was by andrewa under the mgx heading posted in the last couple of days! Interesting reading!!!!!!!!!
> A very tight supply of iron ore is the industry standard at present!!!! GOOD!!




Good little article there on HotCopper johno. I wonder if they will mention the iron ore price rises in the AGM today. Is anyone going? Will be interesting to see the result of the AGM.

Looks like there is increased buying out there already at the moment. MGX is up 2cps currently.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

AGM presentation out after market.Everything look good. 3m tonnes next year at higher prices and all the ongoings make this stock look cheap at present. Talk about Brazils CRVD wanting to take aquisitions in the Iron Ore Sector in Australia. A poss. T/O target?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> AGM presentation out after market.Everything look good. 3m tonnes next year at higher prices and all the ongoings make this stock look cheap at present. Talk about Brazils CRVD wanting to take aquisitions in the Iron Ore Sector in Australia. A poss. T/O target?



Well what do you know read what I said in post 207.....I sometimes see things which by looks of it was right on the button....great news...the buyers will start looking now.....goodunyou Johnno


----------



## wags

*Re: MGX*

These stories always make me laugh.  Since we dont have crystal balls etc, the only thing we have to go off are the facts of today. 

I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of man, Sir Isaac Newton wrote in 1721.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: MGX*



			
				wags said:
			
		

> These stories always make me laugh.  Since we dont have crystal balls etc, the only thing we have to go off are the facts of today.
> 
> I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of man, Sir Isaac Newton wrote in 1721.




Don't worry wags, it's just our resident jnr resources punters getting excited with *Mr 'make your own research' Chicken* leading the pack! (was it fleeta that coined that term for chicken?).

Incidentally, that quote from Newton, which I love, is a result of the South Sea Bubble (lots of good books on it), found this on the web, thanks for posting it, a timely warning in times of euphoria: 

"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
Isaac Newton, after losing his savings in the South Sea Bubble of 1720.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				wags said:
			
		

> These stories always make me laugh.  Since we dont have crystal balls etc, the only thing we have to go off are the facts of today.
> 
> I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of man, Sir Isaac Newton wrote in 1721.



Whatever..I just pointed out that The Big Brazilian is looking at MGX....which it is....now what do you know......as a partner they would turn this company on its head...unlimited money there for whatever... I might be wrong...but the Chinese connection once its all sorted should spurn this share a lot higher.....as well...so its a win...win situation whatever happens.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Whatever..I just pointed out that The Big Brazilian is looking at MGX....which it is....now what do you know......as a partner they would turn this company on its head...unlimited money there for whatever... I might be wrong...but the Chinese connection once its all sorted should spurn this share a lot higher.....as well...so its a win...win situation whatever happens.




I ask the question,"Would CRVD take over BHP?" Doubt it
                         "Would CRVD take over RIO?" Doubt it
       3rd in line would be Portman, na US mob Cleveland now in ownership!!
       4th largest current producer earning serious profits MGX?
       AZR they are strugglin to even start an operation.(Not in production)
       FMG a possibility(Not in production for a few years,30months or so)
       MMX another possibility(Not in production for sometime)
Who knows!!!! What I do know is that S/P movement is not far off and the Chinese interest is what excites me, with big capital behind them!!!!


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

Is anyone here bold enough to suggest what price it can reach in the short term!!

cheers laurie


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> Is anyone here bold enough to suggest what price it can reach in the short term!!
> 
> cheers laurie




Would be silly for any of us to start predicting.We are in the hands of the brokers at present with the manipulation and accumulation scenarios being played out!!!!


----------



## RichKid

*Re: MGX*

Here's some scribbling on charts for those who like technical views. Next week will be pivotal as it's near the end of the triangle. The charts are of the top of a formation which culminated after a very strong move from very low prices, so penny stocks do get on with it from time to time, and in a big hurry as this one shows.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Here's some scribbling on charts for those who like technical views. Next week will be pivotal as it's near the end of the triangle. The charts are of the top of a formation which culminated after a very strong move from very low prices, so penny stocks do get on with it from time to time, and in a big hurry as this one shows.




Thanks RichKid for your charts.Always good to peruse at everybodys parts of the jigsaw puzzle!!!! Thanks Regards Johnno


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Here's some scribbling on charts for those who like technical views. Next week will be pivotal as it's near the end of the triangle. The charts are of the top of a formation which culminated after a very strong move from very low prices, so penny stocks do get on with it from time to time, and in a big hurry as this one shows.



Rich kid thanks for the charts...why I say its going up...well the Chinese are now taking a positive position..and whoever is been taking a position since March..all will be revealed as they have a positive cashflow...and are now gearing up to deliver 5 million tones p/y in iron ore to China all I can see it is positive for MT gibson iron ore....so as far as I can make out its positive for the company also see their latest announcements its looking good


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Fairly low volume today and not alot of change, down 1c at close at 79.5cps.
Not much to comment on, AGM went fine, with one slight hickup(3mpta set back to mid 06 instead of early 06), but all seemed according to plan. Cant see why it hasn't really moved yet, disapointing really....


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

Don't worry, Nanjing pellet thingy coming up. Should bump trading range up to 88-95 cps. I think there still be good demand for iron ore next year. Everyone is over producing steel.... The Chineese are trying to talk prices down, but if they don't like futures prices, tell them to buy on the spot market LOL.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Fairly low volume today and not alot of change, down 1c at close at 79.5cps.
> Not much to comment on, AGM went fine, with one slight hickup(3mpta set back to mid 06 instead of early 06), but all seemed according to plan. Cant see why it hasn't really moved yet, disapointing really....



El ninjo...somone has set a bear trap as soon as the Chinese on board which looks all set to go SP should move for us in the right direction...like gold which if you look at Kitcometals is going higher today....this is a bear trap....I am holding and when it moves it will rise quickly.....


----------



## powwww

*Re: MGX*

I've read some conflicting reports. Proponents to shares like MGX are stating that iron ore prices will definitely increase. Whereas the opponents seem more sceptical to this notion and argue that iron ore is overpriced.. Chicken, or others could you point me to a recent assesment which states iron ore prices are due to peak in the future..

Regards


----------



## RichKid

*Re: MGX*



			
				powwww said:
			
		

> Chicken, or others could you point me to a recent assesment which states iron ore prices are due to peak in the future..
> Regards




There is a thread I started on ASF in General Chat on the Commodities Super Cycle, one of the analysts I refer to  (A commodities bull who manages a listed commodities funds: read that as 'biased') in that thread says most analysts understimate iron ore price rises.

My issue is not with whether or not the iron ore prices will rise but what the sp will do (it may have factored it in already), remember, charting wise as Dow said, the charts discount everything (or something to that effect). Still, it's in an uptrend and hasn't broken support.

Glad you liked the charts johnno/chicken, still no long signal for me. BTW, if anyone has fibonacci tools might be helpful to post a chart with the levels shown.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				powwww said:
			
		

> I've read some conflicting reports. Proponents to shares like MGX are stating that iron ore prices will definitely increase. Whereas the opponents seem more sceptical to this notion and argue that iron ore is overpriced.. Chicken, or others could you point me to a recent assesment which states iron ore prices are due to peak in the future..
> 
> Regards




Powwww, clearly everybody has underestimated Iron Ore Prices, and secondly a big underestimation of China's Growth!!!
As for Iron Ore being overpriced, the demand for the material will dictate that!!! The fact that there are only 3 Big Time Company's -RIO,CVRD,BHP, that supply a big slice of the worlds Iron Ore, they in essence have a monopoly on the market! Supply is in their hands!!!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Watch MGX Boys/Girls in the next few trading days!!!


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*



> Watch MGX Boys/Girls in the next few trading days!!!




What makes you say that johnno?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*

*China, miners headed for price showdown*


November 23, 2005 - 9:11PM


Iron ore miners and Chinese steel mills are headed for a showdown over annual price negotiations with China tipped to demand lower iron ore prices.
Many Chinese steel mills are struggling to hold their heads above water after this year's 71.5 per cent increase in the benchmark price of iron ore, according to China's biggest steel maker Baosteel.

The big three iron ore miners, Australia's BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and Brazil's CVRD, negotiate annually with Chinese and Japanese steel mills to secure benchmark prices, which will be settled early in 2006.

Japan traditionally sets its benchmark prices first and AME Mineral Economics associate director Dallas Horadam is tipping Japanese mills will agree on a higher price for iron ore supply.

"AME forecasts a 20 per cent price rise for fines (iron ore) in Japanese financial year 2006," Mr Horadam said.

"It depends on how negotiations go but there are a lot of potential different outcomes."

However industry consultancy Caiani & Co director Carlo Caiani believed China, which has now overtaken Japan as the world's largest importer of iron ore, would not agree to higher prices and was instead pushing for a price reduction.

He said as China grew its own domestic iron ore production it had more bargaining power with the big three miners.

"We firmly believe that they are gearing up for one of the hottest, contested, iron ore price negotiations we have seen in a long while," Mr Caiani said at the Asia Pacific Iron Ore Conference.

"They will increase their own production because at crazy prices like we have today it is actually cheaper for them to produce their own."

Major Chinese steel mills were still angry at BHP Billiton which tried to secure an additional 10 per cent increase on top of the 71.5 per cent hike earlier this year, he said.

BHP Billiton pushed for higher prices to bring it into line with the price of other countries' iron ore, which included higher freight costs.

Mr Caiani said he expected BHP Billiton would again push for the freight differential rate, but thought they would not get it.

"We are predicting a 20 per cent reduction in iron ore prices this year," he said.

Instead he tipped China would import more ore from Brazil, India and Russia, reducing its intake from Australia.

AME's Mr Horadam said the Chinese market was over-supplied currently but overall the market remained tight.

Ding Shouhu, the deputy general manager of the raw materials department at China's largest steel mill Baosteel, said steel output had now overtaken demand in China.

Mr Ding expected a lower growth rate in consumption in 2006 but the fast growing real estate and construction sectors would continue to increase steel use.

 © 2005 AAP


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

In my honest humble opinion, I do think that the Chinese are playing funny buggers at present, however having said that, BHP,RIO & CVRD are on the ball, so i am sure they are going to push for the best outcome regardless!!!

After reading that article, I  have confused thoughts which I'm sure the rest of you have too!!

MGX fundamentals I guess will not change regardless of price rise or not!!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> In my honest humble opinion, I do think that the Chinese are playing funny buggers at present, however having said that, BHP,RIO & CVRD are on the ball, so i am sure they are going to push for the best outcome regardless!!!
> 
> After reading that article, I  have confused thoughts which I'm sure the rest of you have too!!
> 
> MGX fundamentals I guess will not change regardless of price rise or not!!!



You said it...MGX fundamentals will not change...as they are now in positive CASHFLOW....and NO DEBTS.....as they further develop so will their SP reflect Value.....brokers have a $1.25 value on this stock....see www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  and all been valued by a broker...so we can expect a price increase of 50%..someone is working this sp as the Chinese will be paying 75cents for 60 million shares....I can see upside here to at least 50%...as for the information I have got


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> You said it...MGX fundamentals will not change...as they are now in positive CASHFLOW....and NO DEBTS.....as they further develop so will their SP reflect Value.....brokers have a $1.25 value on this stock....see www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  and all been valued by a broker...so we can expect a price increase of 50%..someone is working this sp as the Chinese will be paying 75cents for 60 million shares....I can see upside here to at least 50%...as for the information I have got



I am just reading XSTRATA looking to buy into IRON ORE miners just wondering if they have been playing the two step with MGX...would not be surprised....they are on a lookout....quite frankly I dont like them to have on the register....they cut you to pieces...my shares are not for sale at present prices.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I am just reading XSTRATA looking to buy into IRON ORE miners just wondering if they have been playing the two step with MGX...would not be surprised....they are on a lookout....quite frankly I dont like them to have on the register....they cut you to pieces...my shares are not for sale at present prices.




Chicken, can you please show me the link to the XSTRATA stuff re IRON ORE aquisitions. Cheers


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken, can you please show me the link to the XSTRATA stuff re IRON ORE aquisitions. Cheers



I read it in mining news.net dated the 25th Nov 2005 their website www.aspermont.com  and they give you a free trial...anyway its on their website......I only get a page now everyday of their latest development...check it out


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I read it in mining news.net dated the 25th Nov 2005 their website www.aspermont.com  and they give you a free trial...anyway its on their website......I only get a page now everyday of their latest development...check it out




Thanks Chicken. I actually found some stuff on XSTRATA's interest in aquiring Iron Ore P/L's. via GOOGLE NEWS page!!!!! Cheers Again


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Hmmm...not a bad day of trading today. Haven't seen this sorta movement in a while. Perhaps we're about to take off. Or will the manipulator kick back into action? Will be interested to see what happens tommorrow


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hmmm...not a bad day of trading today. Haven't seen this sorta movement in a while. Perhaps we're about to take off. Or will the manipulator kick back into action? Will be interested to see what happens tommorrow




Indeed, tomorrow will be an interesting day. It will confirm a breakout status. Hopefully it won't get sold  back down to 79/80 as has been the case for the past 8 weeks whilst this accumulation stage has been taking place.
Ready for take off!!!!


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Fingers crossed.
Enjoy the ride guys....if there is a ride


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Looking good so far guys...looks like it ain't going to be sold back down to $0.8. Hopefully i haven't too soon and we go all the way today. Get ready and strap yourselves in guys.


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Guys this is fantastic. 
MGX is up to 0.835 (2.45%up) now. How come you all r so quiet? Anyone else sharing the excitement? I mean i know it isnt much of a big increase. But at least it seems that the manipulation has ended...for now.

Interested to hear other's comments


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

Up to .85c is this the start of the breakout?

cheers laurie


----------



## tarnor

*Re: MGX*

yeah this one looked fantastic heading towards close yesterday,., CAZ, ECH, IOH  AQD all look for some good trades..  any other ironore plays?  I just want to catch the ride then move onto the next big thing


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Hmmm...it seems like the manipulation is still active. Check out the the sell order at 0.855 for 1 share! However, i think the manipulator is struggling to fight the market force and that this share will not be sold back down today even though the manipulator still wants to .

Just my thoughts.
Happy to hear other's comments


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hmmm...it seems like the manipulation is still active. Check out the the sell order at 0.855 for 1 share! However, i think the manipulator is struggling to fight the market force and that this share will not be sold back down today even though the manipulator still wants to
> 
> Just my thoughts.
> Happy to hear other's comments




  When 1 share appears in the order line it signifies a broker cross trade, nothing sinister...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hmmm...it seems like the manipulation is still active. Check out the the sell order at 0.855 for 1 share! However, i think the manipulator is struggling to fight the market force and that this share will not be sold back down today even though the manipulator still wants to
> 
> Just my thoughts.
> Happy to hear other's comments



I think  yes a broker/trader is still trying but the market dictates...see the 20K shares sold at 84.5c....he is trying but this stock will get red hot in December....Chinese are buying their shares and the Iron ore price may be available....Iron ore will be hot in December.....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I think  yes a broker/trader is still trying but the market dictates...see the 20K shares sold at 84.5c....he is trying but this stock will get red hot in December....Chinese are buying their shares and the Iron ore price may be available....Iron ore will be hot in December.....




Do agree Chicken, December is going to be a hot to trot month for sure!!
MGX S/P moved well again today with a high of 86.5 and then Mr. Broker stepped in and ruined the party!!! Market will over power him, when the big volume days appear and they are not far off in my opinion. Today we had nearly 6million units go thru. Heating up @ Mt.Gibson!!!


----------



## doctorj

*Re: MGX*

Just saw a regular poster at another forum make the following comment on MGX.  I can't comment on the legitimacy or the importance of it, but apparently it means that the sides of their quarry are unstable.


> they are having problems with the foot wall at Tailering Peak due to friable nature of the rock



Good looking candles the past couple of days.  Best of luck to those that hold and go chicken!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Just saw a regular poster at another forum make the following comment on MGX.  I can't comment on the legitimacy or the importance of it, but apparently it means that the sides of their quarry are unstable.
> 
> Good looking candles the past couple of days.  Best of luck to those that hold and go chicken!




Very old news DoctorJ. Market has been aware of this "Slippage"situation since mid year announcement.This is not a major concern, as the S/P has factored this in!!!!!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

there seems to be more interest in this stock....as I said DECMBER this stock will move....Chinese will buy their shares all 60 million of it and iron ore price maybe known....the broker who seems to spoil the party still very active must be accumulating as it started in March 2005.....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> there seems to be more intrest in this stock....as I said DECMBER this stock will move....Chinese will buy their shares all 60 million of it and iron ore price maybe known....the broker who seems to spoil the party still very active must be accumilating as it started in March 2005.....




Volume down a 3rd today compared with yesterday.Yesterday was the first day brokers could not see each others codes on the trading platform!! Wonder if some reason that caused increased volumes?
Good to see MGX closing on daily high of 86.5.
Cheers
Johnno


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Volume down a 3rd today compared with yesterday.Yesterday was the first day brokers could not see each others codes on the trading platform!! Wonder if some reason that caused increased volumes?
> Good to see MGX closing on daily high of 86.5.
> Cheers
> Johnno



Johnno, a sale went through 2.5 million shares for 86.32 cents....I wonder??? MGX will come alive...broker is still trying to keep it down...wait the December announcements...will be exceptional....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Johnno, a sale went through 2.5 million shares for 86.32 cents....I wonder??? MGX will come alive...broker is still trying to keep it down...wait the December announcements...will be exceptional....




Chicken please fill me in  on todays movements with MGX. Been flat out with my business today!!! What was the 2.5 million?Cheers mate!


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Looking very good guys, slight drop back today, but that can be expected due to our friend the manipulator.
Chart looks like a breakout. Hopefully it continues for a while, im still waiting on that $1.10 mark, i'd say it should reach it very soon, but again thats only speculation.
Increased volume is a good sign, but really it should have started increasing in volume some time ago.
In my opinion MGX is yet to show its potential to the market, people are still holding back until december announcements.
That 2.5m trade is interesting.....


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

Who has the best mine Cazaly Resources or MGX!!

cheers laurie


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Looking very good guys, slight drop back today, but that can be expected due to our friend the manipulator.
> Chart looks like a breakout. Hopefully it continues for a while, im still waiting on that $1.10 mark, i'd say it should reach it very soon, but again thats only speculation.
> Increased volume is a good sign, but really it should have started increasing in volume some time ago.
> In my opinion MGX is yet to show its potential to the market, people are still holding back until december announcements.
> That 2.5m trade is interesting.....




El_ninjo, What normally comes hand in hand with a BFS? Answer:  Dilution!!! People are concerned about dilution, but they have to remember it's a catch 22 scenario. For a company to progress, extra funds are required to help develop it!!Simple as that!!!!!
Having said that, from a tax point of view, its good for a company to have some debt as silly as that may sound.
Chart looks great and I do agree, a breakout is imminent!! $1.10 you will get easily short term. A positive is the increased volume too.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> Who has the best mine Cazaly Resources or MGX!!
> 
> cheers laurie




Laurie I wouldn't even compare CAZ & MGX. CAZ is not an investment at present. It's a gamble, no doubt about it!!! Relying on a single decision. It could tumble as fast as it's risen!


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Laurie I wouldn't even compare CAZ & MGX. CAZ is not an investment at present. It's a gamble, no doubt about it!!! Relying on a single decision. It could tumble as fast as it's risen!




Really they [MGX] should have a price of what CAZ are now!! I feel like selling MGX but resist the temptation to do so

cheers laurie


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> Really they [MGX] should have a price of what CAZ are now!! I feel like selling MGX but resist the temptation to do so




I have had the same feeling laurie, but have also resisted for quite some time. I bought in too early and have been restless with the slow growth ever since, but i knew the day would come when it would be at the stage it is now.
I only wish it had come sooner...
Although im a fair way in the green, i just wish it had come faster(dont we all).


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> I have had the same feeling laurie, but have also resisted for quite some time. I bought in too early and have been restless with the slow growth ever since, but i knew the day would come when it would be at the stage it is now.
> I only wish it had come sooner...
> Although im a fair way in the green, i just wish it had come faster(dont we all).




MGX is being hit with a 2.5million dollar writ from The Crushing Crontractor stating that the dirt being crushed was too abrasive!!!!Mr. Luke Tonkins was very agressive in saying that they will fight this hard.Not big dollarsbeing sought after, however under the contract,wrong!!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> MGX is being hit with a 2.5million dollar writ from The Crushing Crontractor stating that the dirt being crushed was too abrasive!!!!Mr. Luke Tonkins was very agressive in saying that they will fight this hard.Not big dollarsbeing sought after, however under the contract,wrong!!




I have been aware of this dispute between MGX and The Crushing Contractor, for some time now, so it's actually good that it is coming to a finalization point in the short term!!!!
MGX said in these exact words,"We will fight this tooth and Nail,there's no doubt about it"!!!!


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> MGX said in these exact words,"We will fight this tooth and Nail,there's no doubt about it"!!!!




I know who my money's on winning    

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> I know who my money's on winning
> 
> cheers laurie



Its come to hand that brokers are identifying themself with purchases last 3 numbers of shares bought eg 1991.4991,6991  check it out what do they think of next  just thought I share this with the board...I am sure that is the way they are doing it now....as it coincidental the no are repeating themself....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Its come to hand that brokers are identifying themself with purchases last 3 numbers of shares bought eg 1991.4991,6991  check it out what do they think of next  just thought I share this with the board...I am sure that is the way they are doing it now....as it coincidental the no are repeating themself....




Chicken's been perusing H/C


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken's been perusing H/C




China is playing funny buggers and saying that Iron Ore imports are going to drop from 260miliion tonnes to 35 million tonnes next year!! Go to Google News and type in Iron Ore!! Cheers


----------



## Lucstar

*Re: MGX*

Hmmm....this stock has been pretty quiet in the past couple of weeks. What do you guys reckon? Are our hopes still running high? What's the outlook looking like?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> Hmmm....this stock has been pretty quiet in the past couple of weeks. What do you guys reckon? Are our hopes still running high? What's the outlook looking like?




Fundamentals have not changed, hence our minds have not changed. Patience Lucstar will no doubt be rewarded!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Fundamentals have not changed, hence our minds have not changed. Patience Lucstar will no doubt be rewarded!



reading AIR TODAY SAYING OR RUMOUR IS AN INCREASE OF 11% for iron ore price..stick with it we are just about there  this one will pop....I am holding


----------



## el_ninj0

*Re: MGX*

Not too happy with this at the moment. This stock has excellent fundamentals, but something unknown to me (mabey manipulation) is holding it back.
I'll be holding for a long while yet...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Not too happy with this at the moment. This stock has excellent fundamentals, but something unknown to me (mabey manipulation) is holding it back.
> I'll be holding for a long while yet...



El nino as I said before...this started in March...the broker buying and selling....Manipulation...yes....and I feel Xstrata playing....but they will have to offer a lot more than present prices.... at least $1.25 plus....we should know soon who has been buying as they will have to declare their hand...20-06the Sp should be showing what the share price is worth..I own a fistful of these and at present price its pure manipulation..by a stake holder I wonder who he is......could also be someone in Hong Kong


----------



## georgee

*Re: MGX*

Dropped to close .76 today.......has not been this level since sept 15 when it was on a run. Also broke below previous support line .78 -.79.......any ideas why?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				georgee said:
			
		

> Dropped to close .76 today.......has not been this level since sept 15 when it was on a run. Also broke below previous support line .78 -.79.......any ideas why?



A broker did drop it to tricker sell orders...the Chinese are buying 60million shares for 75 cents in January 2006 well publisisde and that must be the bottom for this stock...someone is accumilating big time here so that is what or how I see the situation...as I said could even be the Chinese from Hong Kong or Xtrata getting a foot hold..  .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> A broker did drop it to tricker sell orders...the Chinese are buying 60million shares for 75 cents in January 2006 well publisisde and that must be the bottom for this stock...someone is accumilating big time here so that is what or how I see the situation...as I said could even be the Chinese from Hong Kong or Xtrata getting a foot hold..  .




     Chicken...  Do you know if the 60 million share block the Chinese are picking up soon is going to be a new issue (diluting)...I don't think it is going to be an on-market trade.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Chicken...  Do you know if the 60 million share block the Chinese are picking up soon is going to be a new issue (diluting)...I don't think it is going to be an on-market trade.



New issue, as they are wanting to build a pipe line to push the ore through to Geraldtown and for further development they are wanting to ramp up their iron ore production to 5 million tones next year....maybe even higher....


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I will be honest with you. Purchased 330,000 @ 61cents June/July,then purchased 370,000 June/July@ 67cents then purchased 300,000 @ 79.8average mid October everytime it dipped under 80cents!!
> My stop loss is at 72cents!!!! Because I have such a big parcel I have allowed an extra 2 cents above my average.




johnno261.... do you still have your stop set at 72c..


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> johnno261.... do you still have your stop set at 72c..



It just bounced off and trading at 76 cents...I mean to say the traders just love you guys giving your hart earned $$$$ to them....this is a 2006 stock a NO BRAINER $1.50.....dont give your shares away as the fundamentals have not changed.....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> johnno261.... do you still have your stop set at 72c..



Na took stop loss of 3 weeks ago.Still holding entire parcel minus 85,550 which i sold Friday @ 79.5!!!!!!! Stop losses can be dangerous too!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Took stop losses off,in anticipation of bad news to follow regarding "Slippage" and not being able to meet tonnage expectations, hence the sell off over the past few days!! I do expect it to possibly break thru 70 cents again unfortunately. Technically it bounced off 70 today.With the Christmas sell offs just be careful with this stock at present.I'm honest!!I dont ramp anything if it's not due!!We can all benefit from honest opinions!


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Took stop losses off,in anticipation of bad news to follow regarding "Slippage" and not being able to meet tonnage expectations,



Is this rumour or has something been announced?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Is this rumour or has something been announced?




Slippage problems are a Fact. MGX discretely told the market this in one of their detailed announcements I think around July/August.Peruse thru their ann. and you will find.
I think its a big problem, as it has a snowball effect. 
*MGX spending much more time clearing slippage instead of focusing on the extraction of I/Ore
*MGX unable to meet tonnage demand from China.
*MGX unable to meet tonnage targets for the quarter/Half year
*MGX porfits downgrade because all of the above.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Slippage problems are a Fact. MGX discretely told the market this in one of their detailed announcements I think around July/August.Peruse thru their ann. and you will find.
> I think its a big problem, as it has a snowball effect.
> *MGX spending much more time clearing slippage instead of focusing on the extraction of I/Ore
> *MGX unable to meet tonnage demand from China.
> *MGX unable to meet tonnage targets for the quarter/Half year
> *MGX porfits downgrade because all of the above.



Johnno please post where it was written in black and white, as some of it is pure rumour....I have emailed the company to advise the market as too much dishonest rumour is circulating the only slippage I know of is in my clutch in my car...LOLOLOLOLO


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

Ah yes I remember now.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=16643&postcount=74

I read the release and thought MGX would go down (obviously I was wrong).

Subsequently I was advised by broker to buy it, so I bought it.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*

I think the market may be waiting to see 
          the results of the BFS, 
          whether Shougang take up their 15% @ $0.75,
          if MGX need to raise anymore capital to finance their share and how they propose to do it if necesary.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Johnno please post where it was written in black and white ,as some of it is pure rumour....I have emailed the company to advise the market as too much dishonest rumour is circulating the only aslippage I know of ,is in my cluch in my car...LOLOLOLOLO




Chicken do your own homework on this stock!! I read regarding Slippage on an MGX announcement from memory around mid year! It was in a large size pdf file that covered from memory about 28 pages! I dont fabricate this type of news.It's a fact so do your homework and find it yourself and maybe in future read announcements with more care, as this company's style is to discretely drop bad news amongst large announcements!!!ie a 28ish page  pdf announcement!! If anybody here wants to keep bad news quiet, its me!!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken do your own homework on this stock!! I read regarding Slippage on an MGX announcement from memory around mid year! It was in a large size pdf file that covered from memory about 28 pages! I dont fabricate this type of news.It's a fact so do your homework and find it yourself and maybe in future read announcements with more care, as this company's style is to discretely drop bad news amongst large announcements!!!ie a 28ish page  pdf announcement!! If anybody here wants to keep bad news quiet, its me!!!



If it was midyear..well that is 6 months ago...and you will find that their tonage is slightly down but they are just getting into gear ..why make so much fuzz they are making $$$ and once the Chinese on board things will get better....production will increase etc...after all its still a young company..the potentials will come to light in 2006...I read what was said but these are small problems the company will overcome......why come up with this 6 months later...the Traders are trying to steal the stock...but 75 cents is the bottom..huge support..as I said a no brainer stock in 2006 at $1.50


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> If it was midyear..well that is 6 months ago...and you will find that their tonage is slightly down but they are just getting into gear ..why make so much fuzz they are making $$$ and once the Chinese on board things will get better....production will increase etc...after all its still a young company..the potentials will come to light in 2006...I read what was said but these are small problems the company will overcome......why come up with this 6 months later...the Traders are trying to steal the stock...but 75 cents is the bottom..huge support..as I said a no brainer stock in 2006 at $1.50




Agree MGX are making good profits.Why come up with this talk about slippage 6 months later?Unlike you Chicken, I have been aware of this problem 6 months ago when the report came to fruition. Why talk about it now? It's still having an effect!!!! Simple but honest!!!!!! Down side 75 cents? How can you say that Chicken.Dont ever be too confident about a stock, because it will be your undoing!!!! True.
Now having said all of the honest jibber above, I do agree 2006 should be a great year for this company, providing management meet timeframes and communicate to the shareholders.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Agree MGX are making good profits.Why come up with this talk about slippage 6 months later?Unlike you Chicken, I have been aware of this problem 6 months ago when the report came to fruition. Why talk about it now? It's still having an effect!!!! Simple but honest!!!!!! Down side 75 cents? How can you say that Chicken.Dont ever be too confident about a stock, because it will be your undoing!!!! True.
> Now having said all of the honest jibber above, I do agree 2006 should be a great year for this company, providing management meet timeframes and communicate to the shareholders.



ERvery young company has teething problems MGX is no exception..as I said before 2006 is the year for this stock...So  Johnno have a happy new year  ..I own 200k shares here and look forward of the company making the $$$$


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

The market is always right.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Well I am still holding..why..they are making $$$ and its an overreaction by some traders who are having a field day...as soon as the iron ore prices are know this stock will shine again...a lot of  manipulation by traders...I am a longterm investor and the positive about the news that their production of iron will increase to 26mtpa of iron ore and waste...look at their PE and as I said I am not selling as this one will run again soon..it will just take a little longer thats all


----------



## zzkazu

*Re: MGX*

In at 0.59...  yeah.  Bounced off support...

zzkazu


----------



## Kauri

*Re: MGX*



			
				zzkazu said:
			
		

> In at 0.59... yeah. Bounced off support...
> 
> zzkazu




   Well done......


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> production of iron will increase to 26mtpa of iron ore and waste...



Chicken, waste is a bad thing. It is worthless sh*t that you have to remove and not get any return. 3Mtpa is the figure that is a positive. The other number that is important is NPAT - down from $50M to $37M. A very crappy announcement.


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



> Mount Gibson Iron Limited (MGX) slumped 13.2% today after announcing a profit downgrade for FY06 to $37 million from the previously stated $50 million. The group said several factors weighed on the outlook, including delivery of 34 rail wagons delayed to late April 2006 from December 2005. The company also advised that increased development stripping at Tallering Peak mine from January would restrict access to ore in 1H06. As a result, sustainable ore production of 3Mtpa would be pushed back to 2H06 from 1H06, Mount Gibson concluded.




cheers laurie


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

With a P/E of 10 from its last full year earnings at .75 cents per share this baby on the reduced earnings will go to at least 0.55 cents per share on the new earnings downgrade and thesad thing for this stock is because its a new company which has been just tasting success a p/e of less than 10 may be placed upon it which may reduce it even more.

Does any one have any real clear date when earnings will return to normal?


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

I agree 55c is a possibility. but not for the p/e ratio reasons you state. I think you are reading to much into 1 years earnings (as with multiplex). Have a bit more of a look at DCF valuation. 

Basically, the current 'fair value' of a company, is the sum of ALL future earnings (not just current year), adjusted for the risk free return of the overnight interest rate, + a risk premium that the company will have future problems (such as the current one). 

Fortunately we don't know the exact figure of any of these components


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

future earnings is usually based on 3 year forecast and this is usually based on the previous 5 yrs. The NPV value is usually the rate of inflation and they have been using 3% the risk free rate they normally just use the 90 day rate for simplicity and risk is usually the beta valu which is taken from the standard deviations from historical closing prices for the number of trading days over the previous twelve months but a risk can usually be place by using the p/e ratio as it has been done to bluescope.

With multiplex they have just decided that the years loss is abnormal so it is ignored and normal earnings is still in place.

See if you can now calculate the share price as i just adjust the p/e in accordance with the downgrade as the last share price is calcualated using the variables you just stated so just easy to adjust the share price by the decline in the earnings.

When a company is about to be listed they use the method u just spoke of as well to value the share price.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Chicken, waste is a bad thing. It is worthless sh*t that you have to remove and not get any return. 3Mtpa is the figure that is a positive. The other number that is important is NPAT - down from $50M to $37M. A very crappy announcement.



A very crappy anouncement..would be if they made a loss...I think you should look at CAZ,FMG, and some of the other hopefulls..have they ever made $1 Dollar profit after all MGX is becoming the 4th largest iron ore producer in the next 12 months in Australia ..so the fundamentals are sound ask your Broker he would agree so crappy MY FOOT..MGX are making $$$$$...a lot of the others making SILCH..now can you understand the difference..I CAN


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

And the sheep will follow into the slaughter house........  
thank god for chickens   

cheers laurie


----------



## trader

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> And the sheep will follow into the slaughter house........
> thank god for chickens
> 
> cheers laurie



No hope for this stock at the moment somebody is selling down in lots of
50,000  will drop to 60 cents or below, clear signs were there for all to see e.g price dropping and then directors selling always a dead giveaway, always look at directors buying and selling good example of stock going up
FLX directors buying at bottom and now going up.


----------



## TjamesX

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> With a P/E of 10 from its last full year earnings at .75 cents per share this baby on the reduced earnings will go to at least 0.55 cents per share on the new earnings downgrade and thesad thing for this stock is because its a new company which has been just tasting success a p/e of less than 10 may be placed upon it which may reduce it even more.
> 
> Does any one have any real clear date when earnings will return to normal?




Although a mining company should be valued on NPV basis......

At 65c MGX is trading at a PE of 9. This is from last years NPAT of $23.7mill. With regards to earnings turning to normal??? the last time I checked 37 is > 23.7. So on forecast downgraded earnings MGX is trading at a *PE of 5.6* (undiluted using number of shares from 05 report).

Viewing this as cheap or expensive depends on the life of the mines it owns (Tallering is only expected to go for 6 years), and the potential of its other prospects...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

The market must be pricing the end of the life of the mind already into the share price...probably explains the low p/e as after 6 yrs of investment investors will recoup their investment from dividends.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> The market must be pricing the end of the life of the mind already into the share price...probably explains the low p/e as after 6 yrs of investment investors will recoup their investment from dividends.



Analyst....I think you are still posting on the wrong board....you are looking for MXG.....Multiplex.....this is MtGibsonironore...and your posts are odd.....we are talking about Ironore and metals....LOLOLO anyway this share will recover as MGX has been up and down this year will see a price over $1 next year..watch when the new iron ore price is anounced...good buying at present price  as far as earning $37 million this year..well at least we are doing better than CAZ,FMG..as they have so far produced nothing and no profits..we are making $$$$$$$$ from iron ore


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Well...Chicko i was on the right track the other day when i said it will go to 55 cents it went to 60 cents so far. I dont have doubts about MGX but what is life expectency of their current operating mine and what are the forecasted sales projections for the next couple of yrs...i just want the hard facts


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Well...Chicko i was on the right track the other day when i said it will go to 55 cents it went to 60 cents so far. I dont have doubts about MGX but what is life expectency of their current operating mine and what are the forecasted sales projections for the next couple of yrs...i just want the hard facts



Their mine life is up to 25 years they got a hugh deposit....this one will go up as soon as the Chinese on board and it will run hard and fast..someone is working this share hard but they are making the $$$$...I am a longterm investor not day trader so its been to 55c from 97 cents before...this year so 2006 will be MGX year...they are saying this co. will become the 4th largest iron ore producer in AUSTRALIA..so whatever you say no matter to me as I did my research and am quite happy to hold...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Their mine life is up to 25 years they got a hugh deposit....this one will go up as soon as the Chinese on board and it will run hard and fast..someone is working this share hard but they are making the $$$$...I am a longterm investor not day trader so its been to 55c from 97 cents before...this year so 2006 will be MGX year...they are saying this co. will become the 4th  largest iron ore producer in AUSTRALIA..so whatever you say no matter to me as I did my research and am quite happy to hold...




Do they have any explorations in place and have they discovered any other deposits that they can rely on to take them beyond 25 yrs....this is the risk that would probably be put into the share price as when the mine is finished it will be worth zero...so are the 25 yrs based on what they produced this yr or is there an increase in producing and if so will that reduce the mine life of 25 yrs?


----------



## brisvegas

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Well...Chicko i was on the right track the other day when i said it will go to 55 cents it went to 60 cents so far. I dont have doubts about MGX but what is life expectency of their current operating mine and what are the forecasted sales projections for the next couple of yrs...i just want the hard facts






Investment Rating 
MGX produces conventional lump and fine iron ore in the Midwest region of Western Australia for export through Geraldton. Production was to increase from 2Mtpa to 4.5Mtpa in early 2007. *A 10 year mine life is targeted* . MGX in conjunction with its Chinese partner Shougang Group aims to develop a magnetite mine and concentrator near existing operations and 5Mtpa of pellet capacity in China. Pellets attract premium prices but are more costly to produce. Investment is suitable for aggressive, growth investors seeking long term upside from Chinese iron ore demand. Single commodity risk, development risk and the lack of dividends require consideration. 



Result Description 
Recently completed mine schedules to exploit the Tallering Peak ore reserve indicate development rates will need to be increased to sustain 3Mtpa over the mine life. Increased stripping in 2H06 will impact cash flow with the 3Mtpa production rate being achieved in 1H07 rather than 2H06. In addition to the ore access restrictions caused by the increased stripping, production will also be lower due to a four month delay in delivery of 34 rail wagons to April 2006 and installation and commissioning of a crushing and screening plant with 3Mtpa capacity. 


Elsewhere limited access to scarce technical and professional resources has delayed the feasibility study for the Extension Hill Magnetite Project to the end of January 2006. The study will not be to bankable standard and capital cost optimisation will continue in an attempt to contain cost increases due to the current resources boom. Current operating cost estimates are in line with earlier estimates. 


Impact 
It is anticipated that hematite ore sales for FY06 will now be approximately 2.1Mt. *The company has revised its FY06 profit forecast from $50m to $37m assuming no increase in iron ore prices. 2H06 profit is forecast to fall from $21m in 1H06 to $16m. * 

We maintain our Buy recommendation given the improving outlook for iron ore prices and the sharp pullback in share price. Our earnings forecasts and valuation are under review. That said, we take a long term view and the project delays while unfortunate, are shorter term issues.


----------



## Ann

*Re: MGX*

Hello Brisvegas.....
......love your tag.....

Anyone can make the simple complicated. Creativity is making the complex simple

There appears to be a lot of concern at the moment as to what the Chinese are going to be able to negotiate the price of Iron Ore down to. They have hit steel, they have just creamed the price of Manganese Ore...... http://www.consminerals.com.au/pdfs/Tex Manganese Price Chart 221205.pdf

.....will Iron Ore meet the same fate? I am betting the smart money is on a reasonable drop in price.

Then a plethora of profit downgrades?...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Ann said:
			
		

> Hello Brisvegas.....
> ......love your tag.....
> 
> Anyone can make the simple complicated. Creativity is making the complex simple
> 
> There appears to be a lot of concern at the moment as to what the Chinese are going to be able to negotiate the price of Iron Ore down to. They have hit steel, they have just creamed the price of Manganese Ore...... http://www.consminerals.com.au/pdfs/Tex Manganese Price Chart 221205.pdf
> 
> .....will Iron Ore meet the same fate? I am betting the smart money is on a reasonable drop in price.
> 
> Then a plethora of profit downgrades?...



Ann stick to facts. You dont know and I dont know what the steel price will be so YOU DONT KNOW. Wait and see what will happen...and then we will see. The price I say it will rise by 10 %, my prediction....as there are problems by the Indians in Brazil....


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Ann stick to facts. You dont know and I dont know what the steel price will be so YOU DONT KNOW. Wait and see what will happen...and then we will see. The price I say it will rise by 10 %, my prediction....as there are problems by the Indians in Brazil....




You know chicken i reckon you are right there is no indications that the commodity boom is gonna stop, actually i think it is somewhere not even thru the middle of its current cycle..a cycle is usually at least 5 yrs long and it has not been 5 yrs.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> Although a mining company should be valued on NPV basis......
> 
> At 65c MGX is trading at a PE of 9. This is from last years NPAT of $23.7mill. With regards to earnings turning to normal??? the last time I checked 37 is > 23.7. So on forecast downgraded earnings MGX is trading at a *PE of 5.6* (undiluted using number of shares from 05 report).
> 
> Viewing this as cheap or expensive depends on the life of the mines it owns (Tallering is only expected to go for 6 years), and the potential of its other prospects...




Hi Tjames

I have just gone thru a good book on derivatives pricing and finished it so i can understand and calculale for myself the price of any derivative and know how institutions price them.

I have done a bit of study on the mathematical pricing models of all types of capital and i am now almost finished the pricing models that are used to calculate the price of shares...i did t previously at TAFE but i have now taken it a bit further...but i dont like the fortunes of mgx in the long run though short term is ok but its mine is only gonna last ten yrs and when demand grows even less.

I have the formulas now for NPV and found where to access to the beta's just gotta find some market expectation returns and should find them from some connection at uni for free..probally one of the lectures will know i think the graduate school of business management risk has them but i am at vic uni so i will see if i can get access and then i will start doing all the calculations to perfection not as rough as i have been doing this year but will get there.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> You know chicken i reckon you are right there is no indications that the commodity boom is gonna stop, actually i think it is somewhere not even thru the middle of its current cycle..a cycle is usually at least 5 yrs long and it has not been 5 yrs.



Analyst..what I read is or what the forecasters are saying this is going to last to 2012..due ONLY to the demand from CHINA...and pulls the rest of the world along...CHINA and also India are the Engine of this Resources BOOM...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst..what I read is or what the forecasters are saying this is going to last to 2012..due ONLY to the demand from CHINA...and pulls the rest of the world along...CHINA and also India are the Engine of this Resources BOOM...




And the famous great one Gann said the key would be commodities...u could just go long and stay there for hundreds of yrs.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> And the famous great one Gann said the key would be commodities...u could just go long and stay there for hundreds of yrs.



Analyst, tell me have you got any shares or you just like to annoy people..? Put your money where your mouth is....after all your Multiplex is not doing much is it.....MGX see www.mtgibsoniron.com.au is going places..and are making $$$$$ and creeping up to go over 70 cents....as soon as we know what %%% increase in the iron ore price....this one is to watch...also any one in CAZ should read what Mr Tim Treadgold wrote in the BRW November issue 24-30 2005 and take note...tennament is still questionable...and RIO may drag it out for years


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst, tell me have you got any shares or you just like to annoy people..? Put your money where your mouth is....after all your Multiplex is not doing much is it.....MGX see www.mtgibsoniron.com.au is going places..and are making $$$$$ and creeping up to go over 70 cents....as soon as we know what %%% increase in the iron ore price....this one is to watch...also any one in CAZ should read what Mr Tim Treadgold wrote in the BRW November issue 24-30 2005 and take note...tennament is still questionable...and RIO may drag it out for years




Hi Chicko

I never said that mgx would stay at 55 cents..did i?  I never said that i would but mxg either...did i? I have done a few trades this year and in the last week i have traded TLS instalments (TLSISS) Santos STO installments (STOISS) all winning trades(sold yesterday when share price was $12.16..and had bght when share price was $11.85). I have traded NAB ordinary shares 3 times all winning trades and also NAB equity call warrants and puts...calls at cum div and puts just before ex dive (44%)

I have been accumulating GTP installments and about even at the moment...my only loss this yr is GTP ordinary and BSL ordinary as they are tricky stocks but getting the handle on there valuation models now.

I have to open positions at the moment but my plan is banks this new yr and it will be banks and more banks as well as BHP.

Keep it cool

TheAnalyst


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Hi Chicken

I have been doing the some final studies on the pricing methods for securities and unless mgx can ascertian that it will have something left to mine in 12 years it will be worth a residual value per share and this will be the value of any assets it has left.

This value is refered to as terminal value and as it is not a company like a bank or a well known newspaper that its net cashflows are considered to have an infinity time placed on them, therefore, mgx has a finite period placed on its netcashflows being 12 years.

We then must get a reasonable growth percentage for mgx's net cashflows per year to use as well as a discount rate which is the weighted average cost of capital(wacc) meaning how much in percentage terms does the cost of servicing debt, preference shares and dividend payments to ordinary share holders. From here we can then calculate the net present value(NPV) of the net yearly cashflows up to the TERMINAL VALUE which is the last and final period of the life considered of the business and get a total NPV.

THen from this point we deduct its net borrowings as of the first period used in the net cashflow period then add any surplus assets not used in the business which gives us the value of equity which we then divide by the amount of shares on issue which gives an estimate of what the share price should be traded in the secondary market.

Now the best thing you can do is contact the accounting section of mgx and ask them what pricing method is currently being used to price the shares and ask them what growth forecast and discount rate is currently being accepted and used for the pricing valuation model of mgx which should be their wacc. Now i can get their balance sheet and probally do it myself but i am busy doing some other very important stuff at the moment so if you can get this info to me it will be easier for me to know what the major analyst sections of the institutions are upto in their pricing of mgx shares that way i can get a handle on what sensitivities the stock price has and when news comes i can get an idea whats gonna happen.

The big concern is are share holders going to get back much more than what they paid for their shares before the finite terminal date approaches and the shares are only worth a residual value most likely being the assets left over.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Tell me Analyst what would you know and how much of Geologyst are you stick to your Bank shares after all you dont own any shares in MGX, I really dont understand your motive of posting on a subject you dont understand..you sound like someone who posted on ZFX when I was posting..YOU JUST HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE stick to your MXG not MGX which you dont understand..see my record ZFX,SBM, just to name a few


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Tell me Analyst what would you know and how much of Geologyst are you stick to your Bank shares after all you dont own any shares in MGX, I really dont understand your motive of posting on a subject you dont understand..you sound like someone who posted on ZFX when I was posting..YOU JUST HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE stick to your MXG not MGX which you dont understand..see my record ZFX,SBM, just to name a few




Chicken..facts are facts...like i said contact the accounts section of mgx and get the variables that i asked you for...as you are a shareholder and have right to this information and you can even ask for the company full accounts not just the accounts(reports that are commonly sent to shareholders).

All i am trying to do is establish a trading range on the stock( a possible high & a possible low) and to do this we need this info so we can determine what the sensitivities are to the stock and what each sensitivity or crystallisation of a risk can do to the share price in the valuation model.

Whether you like it or not we cannot get away from these facts they are the set fundamentals of share price models on the stock market.

All i am trying to do is help you chicken then you can find when is a good time to accumulate and sell and the most important thing is if mxg donot find new mines well when is a good time to exit the stock before it become almost worthless again as its earnings are not at this stage considered perpetuity so there is obviously a terminal date on the mgx and lets find when that is and the company accountant will know.

Also chicken by me raising these issues is good for this forum because i have now alerted mgx share holders the dangers of the stock the risks and they have the right to know as readers in this forum not just your one eyed views, so, its not nice for you to talk to me like this as you have and to cease control of the veiws on the forum of mgx in some ways that means you could be a ramper.

All information should be considered and my guess is that a lot of people in this forum and mgx shareholders probally did not know or were aware of set pricing models like i have explained are applicable to mgx and it is good for people to know this information as it is seldom spoken of and they now have the opportunity to realise that this is so.

I have been looking at mgx but i plan to do more research over time as how often can the price of iron ore continue to rise before is begins to effect demand and restrict net cashflow growth or even send it negative.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Tell me Analyst what would you know and how much of Geologyst are you stick to your Bank shares after all you dont own any shares in MGX, I really dont understand your motive of posting on a subject you dont understand..you sound like someone who posted on ZFX when I was posting..YOU JUST HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE stick to your MXG not MGX which you dont understand..see my record ZFX,SBM, just to name a few



If anyone would like to see what SHAW STOCKBROKING RESEARCH TEAM has to say go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  and you find a brokers research report...after all SHAW bought 20 million shares at 85 cents....if anyone did their research well they had put their money where their mouth is...check it out and look at the research...if iron ore  will climb by 10% the figures are even better than presented...so who do you belief an unqualified person like Analyst or a broker who went to the trouble and produced figures and charts...after all oil will run out in 30 years..so Santos or woodside have only a residual value...ask yourself who needs help


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> If anyone would like to see what SHAW STOCKBROKING RESEARCH TEAM has to say go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  and you find a brokers research report...after all SHAW bought 20 million shares at 85 cents....if anyone did their research well they had put their money where their mouth is...check it out and look at the research...if iron ore  will climb by 10% the figures are even better than presented...so who do you belief an unqualified person like Analyst or a broker who went to the trouble and produced figures and charts...after all oil will run out in 30 years..so Santos or woodside have only a residual value...ask yourself who needs help



 Chicken...Chicken...Chicken...I probally am just as qualified as any of those analysts at shaws..maybe more qualified as well...and experienced as well

I am not doubting mgx...so can you stop quoting me that i am doubting mgx..and look how those analysts at shaws got it wrong and bought at 85 cents when they should have done there home work and realised the risk that train carraiges not delivered on time due to over demand harmed the share price recently.

Also i have experience with Shaws and they havent always been known to get it right not even one of their senior advisors is all clean and good at getting it right.

I dont hold santos as you have not been reading my posts properly i held them just prior to xmas and sold after xmas and will lye in wait for another opportunity.

I am just pointing out facts and the risks involved and they have presented themselves..i am not saying that mgx will not rise to higher highs and i am not saying it will not dive to lower lows i am pointing out risks. Also shaws stockbroking didnt use their own money they used there clients money with a transaction fee and commission attached for the advice.

You still seem to be getting away from the facts of the whole pricing fundamentals of the stockmarket. Why dont you let all of us here know what research and what lead you to buy mgx and zinifex and the others as you obviouly did something right and i would like to know as i am not a gambler and hope you are not as well.

So here take the platform and share with us your strategy for buying these stocks as i have always been open about my strategy and purchases(gains and losses) and have been quite acurate at predicting share price lows as you can check out my prior posts and i have always explained how i came to these lets see if you can be as honest and straight forward as me...here is the challenge to you CHICKEN see if yopu can be honest to us all and share it with us.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Tell me Analyst..did you know MGX are involved in the Kimberleys and have also a hugh holding in the Pilbara near Port Headlands , production figures by AShaw Stockbroking are not even included..by the way I dont need advise from Ameutures like you ,I make my research and post facts..you need to make your research before you post crap..as far as i can see you just follow trends..as I said before if you are not prepared to research your subject as your posting sugests..than dont post on the subject you dont understand


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Tell me Analyst..did you know MGX are involved in the Kimberleys and have also a hugh holding in the Pilbara near Port Headlands , production figures by AShaw Stockbroking are not even included..by the way I dont need advise from Ameutures like you ,I make my research and post facts..you need to make your research before you post crap..as far as i can see you just follow trends..as I said before if you are not prepared to research your subject as your posting sugests..than dont post on the subject you dont understand




So you are a gambler then and you are also very rude and you are still mis quoting me...and you are getting very personal and calling me an amatuer doesnt do you any justice its actually making you look really bad because you havent stated how you did your research i have and you have stated your total lack of knowledge of the markets becuase you arre not aware of the facts that i have presented to you...maybe we should get others to post their opinion of you as you are avoiding answering me...and i reckon everyone can guess why?? becuase i am more qualified than you and i am more open and you well....we can see from your last post on the subject what you are all about.....A BIG MOUTH...who can ask for responses but cant give them your self...you proballly dont even hold the stocks yourself and on top of this you are probally a subscriber to Shaws analyst reports because you cannot do the research your self or the maths and by no means do i insult you for this it is probally wise for someone like you to get advice...but what i do note is you are full of it becuase i have came on a level headed debate with you and came up with fundamentals and facts and rised to your challenge and was very happy to disclose where you have lived up to your name CHICKEN and ran from my challenge and have insulted the readers of this forum by not telling us your strategy and when i have and shared and most likely people have learned from me as i do get queries in my email about stuff...you have basically spat on me and insulted me when i have done the right thing by people and disclosed and you havent.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

See I told you you have not got a clue..tell me what else has MGX got I have not posted on..well? see you have not researched the company..you follow trends you dont, I am a longterm holder of stock..you sound like a day trader or whatever..but your knowledge of who MGX are is poor..right..I am not a gambler after all I hold a swag of MGX for good reasons..yours is just a day trends mine is for a lot longer..and anyway..if you are that clever you even posted wrong ASX company symbols..you need to make your research..then post...and facts are important.....


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> See I told you you have not got a clue..tell me what else has MGX got I have not posted on..well? see you have not researched the company..you follow trends you dont, I am a longterm holder of stock..you sound like a day trader or whatever..but your knowledge of who MGX are is poor..right..I am not a gambler after all I hold a swag of MGX for good reasons..yours is just a day trends mine is for a lot longer..and anyway..if you are that clever you even posted wrong ASX company symbols..you need to make your research..then post...and facts are important.....





Is that the best you can do Chicken...you have avoided the real challenge...i met your challenge and i make my trades on calcualted decisions as well as a continuing gain of knowledge and have disclosed...you still have not met the same challenge requirements that you made to me and i lived up to..you are avoiding your own queries to me..that is quite hypocryticall of you and i am quite sure people read my posts and learn.

You have got no respect for people of this forum as you have refused to disclose what made you a buyer of mgx..i have disclosed why i have not been a buyer of mgx and there are many mining company's that say they have mining rights in certian areas but whether they can eventually get earnings out of them is another thing until then it may as well still be called venture capital...and mgx is still partly venture capital...fact is a fact

You are an avoider of your own stringent insults and demands to others...i am not...until you disclose you will be seen by others on this forum as lacking in something real...honesty, knowledge, experience and respect for others, you will beseen as someone who hides behind the secrecy of a internet forum someone who cant take it up to those with qualifications and leave without embarressment and a red face because you are someone who just guesses your stock picks or likes the name of them.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Is that the best you can do Chicken...you have avoided the real challenge...i met your challenge and i make my trades on calcualted decisions as well as a continuing gain of knowledge and have disclosed...you still have not met the same challenge requirements that you made to me and i lived up to..you are avoiding your own queries to me..that is quite hypocryticall of you and i am quite sure people read my posts and learn.
> 
> You have got no respect for people of this forum as you have refused to disclose what made you a buyer of mgx..i have disclosed why i have not been a buyer of mgx and there are many mining company's that say they have mining rights in certian areas but whether they can eventually get earnings out of them is another thing until then it may as well still be called venture capital...and mgx is still partly venture capital...fact is a fact
> 
> You are an avoider of your own stringent insults and demands to others...i am not...until you disclose you will be seen by others on this forum as lacking in something real...honesty, knowledge, experience and respect for others, you will beseen as someone who hides behind the secrecy of a internet forum someone who cant take it up to those with qualifications and leave without embarressment and a red face because you are someone who just guesses your stock picks or likes the name of them.



As I said..YOU DONT HOLD ANY STOCK IN MGX...WHY DO YOU POST...??? Just to annoy me, well I come across people like you all the time...and I said do your research..,have you done it ,NO , you are annoyed with me give it a rest as you have not got a clue...on this subject....after all MGX are going to be the 4th largest producer of iron ore in Australia...funny ,that I know and you dont.....because you follow trends and I dont.....


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> As I said..YOU DONT HOLD ANY STOCK IN MGX...WHY DO YOU POST...??? Just to annoy me, well I come across people like you all the time...and I said do your research..,have you done it ,NO , you are annoyed with me give it a rest as you have not got a clue...on this subject....after all MGX are going to be the 4th largest producer of iron ore in Australia...funny ,that I know and you dont.....because you follow trends and I dont.....




I have never denied what mgx could be...but i have been talking of a valuation of the share price..you still have not came to your own party..and i am still waiting for you to attend..you sent the invite but havent turned up  yourself.

And what trends do you think i follow and what is your idea of a trend that i follow???

Remember you started the insults not me and now you have still avoided disclosing a nice summary of events of what got you to be a holder of mgx...so we on the forun are still waiting for you to use the same energy in posting insults to me to be used in a positive way and summarise why you bought into mgx.

I believe there are a few readers out there waiting for you to reply.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> I have never denied what mgx could be...but i have been talking of a valuation of the share price..you still have not came to your own party..and i am still waiting for you to attend..you sent the invite but havent turned up  yourself.
> 
> And what trends do you think i follow and what is your idea of a trend that i follow???
> 
> Remember you started the insults not me and now you have still avoided disclosing a nice summary of events of what got you to be a holder of mgx...so we on the forun are still waiting for you to use the same energy in posting insults to me to be used in a positive way and summarise why you bought into mgx.
> 
> I believe there are a few readers out there waiting for you to reply.



You are a funny bloke...no shares in the company,no research,no idea where and what the company is up to, and you are trying to tell the board you know what the share price should be get off the grass...this trick was done with Mout Isa Mines where Xtrata did just that...today people are better informed...and its all there to see....MGX will be the stock for 2006 the price is CHEAP...too cheap as MGX are producers and as soon as the Chinese are on board watch the price rise.....tell me what is a 1 billion ton of iron ore worth...by looks of things peanuts..right...well wrong...are you connected with Xtrata...because thats what they would have said......you are an expert...thats a laugh


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> You are a funny bloke...no shares in the company,no research,no idea where and what the company is up to, and you are trying to tell the board you know what the share price should be get off the grass...this trick was done with Mout Isa Mines where Xtrata did just that...today people are better informed...and its all there to see....MGX will be the stock for 2006 the price is CHEAP...too cheap as MGX are producers and as soon as the Chinese are on board watch the price rise.....tell me what is a 1 billion ton of iron ore worth...by looks of things peanuts..right...well wrong...are you connected with Xtrata...because thats what they would have said......you are an expert...thats a laugh




Whatever chicken...you are still quoting stuff i havent ever said..and you dont make the rules about what people can and cannot post on this site so i can post what i like as long as it is within the rules of the site.

By the way chicken i have the skills at anytime to do a full research and analysis of mgx and i can interpret the financial statements do any type of auditing and stock performance ratio analysis and chicken i can take every transaction from the largest to smallest that mgx does and create their company accounts to the International Accounting Standards, ASX and according to the corporations act being their balance sheet, statement of performance and cashflow statement and you can actually give me their accrual accounting statement and balance sheet and i can create manually their cashflow statements.

Like i say chicken i can do what you cannot...you are totally reliant on others i can make my own investment decisions just like any professional who works for an investemnt bank...i would only day trade mgx at this stage but i think it carrys to much risk when i can leverage myself into real proven stocks with ease and i dont have to watch a screen all day as i find a position and i stay there...i ama position trader and a trade can go for one day or it may go for 3 mths.

Now i will wait for the next bucket of crap that you send me


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Whatever chicken...you are still quoting stuff i havent ever said..and you dont make the rules about what people can and cannot post on this site so i can post what i like as long as it is within the rules of the site.
> 
> By the way chicken i have the skills at anytime to do a full research and analysis of mgx and i can interpret the financial statements do any type of auditing and stock performance ratio analysis and chicken i can take every transaction from the largest to smallest that mgx does and create their company accounts to the International Accounting Standards, ASX and according to the corporations act being their balance sheet, statement of performance and cashflow statement and you can actually give me their accrual accounting statement and balance sheet and i can create manually their cashflow statements.
> 
> Like i say chicken i can do what you cannot...you are totally reliant on others i can make my own investment decisions just like any professional who works for an investemnt bank...i would only day trade mgx at this stage but i think it carrys to much risk when i can leverage myself into real proven stocks with ease and i dont have to watch a screen all day as i find a position and i stay there...i ama position trader and a trade can go for one day or it may go for 3 mths.
> 
> Now i will wait for the next bucket of crap that you send me



Hi junior Analyst..I have got Kids older than you..you dont own any stock in MGX..tell me why do you post?..are you unemployed..or looking for a job..I only post on subjects which intrest me...stick to the subject on hand STOCKS and shares...and if you got some news post but the crap you post are irellavant..as I said before you buy you sell..not a longterm holder of any stocks....eg Santos,...you are like a butterfly..from this to that...do yourself a favour and post only if you got a constructive comment.....on stocks news ...but as far as financials you will get yourself into hotwater and companies take action even on chatrooms or forums....YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE OF WHAT YOU POST.....and can be sued


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Hi junior Analyst..I have got Kids older than you..you dont own any stock in MGX..tell me why do you post?..are you unemployed..or looking for a job..I only post on subjects which intrest me...stick to the subject on hand STOCKS and shares...and if you got some news post but the crap you post are irellavant..as I said before you buy you sell..not a longterm holder of any stocks....eg Santos,...you are like a butterfly..from this to that...do yourself a favour and post only if you got a constructive comment.....on stocks news ...but as far as financials you will get yourself into hotwater and companies take action even on chatrooms or forums....YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE OF WHAT YOU POST.....and can be sued




Wat a weak immature comment chicken..i will post wat i like on mgx and you cant say a word.....bye...you will have no more replys to this nonsense that u are posting...i will only post reply's to genuine stock chat not your verbal attacking on people personally


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Wat a weak immature comment chicken..i will post wat i like on mgx and you cant say a word.....bye...you will have no more replys to this nonsense that u are posting...i will only post reply's to genuine stock chat not your verbal attacking on people personally



As I said you are a typicall 36 year old Junior to me ,what you trade and what you buy is of no importance to me...stick to share facts and if you got no comments on stocks you dont even hold..do yourself a favour Junior and DO YOUR RESEARCH....


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> As I said you are a typicall 36 year old Junior to me




Come on chicken... there is no reason to make this personal. Differences in opinion are what makes a market. Lets always show other members the appropriate respect irrespective of their views.

Now lets get this thread back on topic.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Come on chicken... there is no reason to make this personal. Differences in opinion are what makes a market. Lets always show other members the appropriate respect irrespective of their views.
> 
> Now lets get this thread back on topic.



OK you got it right


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Re support...80 cents at present where will the SP head ?..thats easy with a forecast of $78 million profit and the Chinese partner paying 80 cents for their shares in this group...its $1 plus you are looking at....65 cents I would mortgage my house.....its pretty cast iron.....except if the whole world went into a depression..not very likely...so my forecasts are, and I have proven that I have been correct...are $1 plus.......as they are really getting into the swing I own 200k shares




Been reading all the posts chicken..been tracking when you bought in mid last year and you have a lot at stake...starting to see why u have been getting angry with me...lolol.....i kick ur ass when it comes to trading....

Anyway after all this does anyone have a good estimate from the company how many tonnes of iron ore thay have in the ground..and they have stated somewhere what their production will be for each year and at that production level how long will the mine last??

I am asking because there are a few on this subject following the the stock hard and realise that you might have these figures down to a "T"...that way i can create a spread sheet on exell and value the amount of iron ore they have with the current price of ore on the market and value how much the whole lot is worth on a daily basis.

Does anyone also have the number of diluted and undiluted shares on issue so we can tell how much the directors will be taking with the conversion of options to shares??


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

I am amazed what has happen to MGX :swear:  funny if MGX hit .90c the ASX would be asking them a price query why the share price went up    so where is the ASX NOW the share price went south no where to be seen   

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> I am amazed what has happen to MGX :swear:  funny if MGX hit .90c the ASX would be asking them a price query why the share price went up    so where is the ASX NOW the share price went south no where to be seen
> 
> cheers laurie



Laurie....this stock will rise again..why? the assets in this company are great..producing and making $$$ no debt ,and the reason this stock went south someone sold 2.5 million shares and triggered sell stops..read their latest anouncements....see what the company posted...www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and very little stock is being traded..it will come alltogether in the next 3 months....after all I am holding a swag..and I know the CHINESE need our iron ore for their buildings etc..and India may need iron ore .........my time frame is at least 3 months or sooner..now its buying time for this stock..because as soon as all the facts are known $1 will be cheap......


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

Chicken

I on like you BUT I get annoyed with the ASX they assume when a share price for some unknown goes up quite quickly there is some inside trading going on, I'm saying the same when it drops like MGX did !! who's to say inside information did not cause the drop!!

cheers laurie


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

Well have a look at what happened just before mid december. Rather than produce a BFS as expected by the market, one director sold a fair whack of shares. I still hold from 70c.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Well have a look at what happened just before mid december. Rather than produce a BFS as expected by the market, one director sold a fair whack of shares. I still hold from 70c.




the stock is totally reliant on the price of ore from here...and how much can ore go up by...as we know it has had a great run...so maybe we can look at what would be a reasonable increase in the price from year to year now...10% or something above the inflation rate????

I wish someone would post what the estimate is of the amount of ore mgx has in the ground then i could come up with something and start trading the stock..


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

Something like 31MT haemetite (shippable grade) and 100MT magnetite (not sure what grade).


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Something like 31MT haemetite (shippable grade) and 100MT magnetite (not sure what grade).




Hi makrmau

Have you got what price per tonne on both of these or how it equates to a price of ore on the global market??

cheers


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hi makrmau
> 
> Have you got what price per tonne on both of these or how it equates to a price of ore on the global market??
> 
> cheers



I would suggest you go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  aND LOOK AT THE FIGURES SHAW POSTED ...its all there as far as what the poster posted its all incorrect..look at the webside and its all there


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

Well that's the problem. So many unknown variables. Can give current contract/spot prices, but who knows what will happen 2006..2010???

I believe the following is correct in US $/tonne
China spot: 85
India spot: 70
Brazil contract: 66
Aus contract: 55

May as well use same for hemetite (Fe2O3) and magnetite (Fe3O4 - slightly higher %iron).


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> its all there as far as what the poster posted its all incorrect



I assume you mean me.

If you have such a lot of MGX chicken, I suggest you become a client of shaw's rather than rely on what MGX stuck on the web page from 1 year ago. What are they saying now? I know. Do you?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> I assume you mean me.
> 
> If you have such a lot of MGX chicken, I suggest you become a client of shaw's rather than rely on what MGX stuck on the web page from 1 year ago. What are they saying now? I know. Do you?



No, all I am saying that there assets of  Iron ore are higher as they are involved in the Pilbara region near Port Headlands...and also in the Kimberley region...the company in fact has more iron ore than stated in the report as these 2 region nothing is said about that....all I know its larger than the market is aware of....this share will rise as soon as the Chinese have joined and its a waiting game......at present....someone is still accumilating at these prices...could be the Chinese we will know soon.....As fart as the BFS....it will all come together in the next 3 months...MGX has production is making the $$$ and has now NO debt..or very little...I am prepared to wait.....


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

I now confirm that i have begun my analysis of mgx and have sent mgx an email to their finance section with some hard questions and one of those questions what is the estimated production potential of any raw mines.

I have also come to an early conclusion as to why the share price is not higher and why shaws valued it in the high $1 range and that is because if  the same p/e ratio was applied to mgx as onesteel and bhp to would almost double its share price. On top of this risk issue that a p/e ratio lower than the before mentioned two companies it will not be paying a dividend until 2007 which also is an issue in valuation.

BHP and Onesteel have confirmed less riskier track records and know mines in reserves which gives them a perpetuity of cashflows meaning that its expected in the calcualation in the share price that Bhp and Onesteele will continue as a business for good; mgx does not have this assumption yet and seems a bit far from establishing this character but by no means does it mean it will not, but by no means has it proved that it will either.

As of march when shaws released their analysis and they have also done for other company's as well a very famous one being ROC oil 4-5 yrs ago and it never really eventuated and it seems a little like the mgx one as well but maybe not though it does have the same feel. Anyway back to march of 2005 the diluted shares were 408 million compared to undiluted 361 million..now i havent gort around to the last finacial report but i will so i dont know if there is an increase but what this means is that directors and other connected figures have options to convert to shares and sell if they so wish which equates to 13% of the entire shares o issue meaning that the share price will fall by 13% to accommodate the option exercise.

One must take into account was the analysis by shaw paid for by mgx if this is so its like any business pricing from parties involved there will be 2 valuations being on behalf of the seller and the buyer and both come in a way that is most beneficial to each of the instigating parties and then there is a independent valuation as well and you end up with of course 3 prices at two extreme ends.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> One must take into account was the analysis by shaw paid for by mgx



This analysis was not paid for by mgx. A disclosure is given in the report. 

In general, I have found the Shaw reports on small companies to be very good. They have found some real gems, before the bigger brokerages cover them.

Not as good for larger companies though.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> This analysis was not paid for by mgx. A disclosure is given in the report.
> 
> In general, I have found the Shaw reports on small companies to be very good. They have found some real gems, before the bigger brokerages cover them.
> 
> Not as good for larger companies though.




u seem to have done your homework on this stock...can you give me a summary of what u think are the highlights of mgx.

Also do u have much knowledge on any other raw mines of mgx?


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MGX*

I'm afraid I don't have much significant information to add.

You see my investment style is not to try too hard to value companies in the present. Even if you came up with a valuation of $1 for mgx, I'm sure you could move it anywhere from 50c or $2 by simply varying your assumptions such as iron ore prices, mining costs, ...

I look for companies where there is other opportunity not reflected in SP. In the case of mgx it is the 100MT of magnetite (could be wrong here but I read that they had an option which expired in Dec 2005 to acquire remaining 100MT - I see no announcement so I assume it expired). I have read that Shaw valued mgx at something like 79c WITHOUT including the magnetite.

So my reasoning is, value mgx current workings at 55c-63c (my extra risk premium), you still have potential for extra 70-80c when the magnetite project is running (some share dilution as well). 

However unless something good is announced, I think mgx will trade from 55-63c over the next year and hopefully I will be able to buy more in this range.

One thing I can say for Chicken though, is even if you don't like his posting style or overuse of the 2c symbol  , he has been on some real winners - ZFX, SBM,.... So I think he will clean up on mgx in long term.

On a less positive note, I was very dissappointed to see directors selling $80k at the time the market expected word on the magnetite project. Obviously the director knew no BFS was forthcoming and would have known about the impact of the rail cars (problem initially announced mid 2005).

Cheers,Mark.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> I'm afraid I don't have much significant information to add.
> 
> You see my investment style is not to try too hard to value companies in the present. Even if you came up with a valuation of $1 for mgx, I'm sure you could move it anywhere from 50c or $2 by simply varying your assumptions such as iron ore prices, mining costs, ...
> 
> I look for companies where there is other opportunity not reflected in SP. In the case of mgx it is the 100MT of magnetite (could be wrong here but I read that they had an option which expired in Dec 2005 to acquire remaining 100MT - I see no announcement so I assume it expired). I have read that Shaw valued mgx at something like 79c WITHOUT including the magnetite.
> 
> So my reasoning is, value mgx current workings at 55c-63c (my extra risk premium), you still have potential for extra 70-80c when the magnetite project is running (some share dilution as well).
> 
> However unless something good is announced, I think mgx will trade from 55-63c over the next year and hopefully I will be able to buy more in this range.
> 
> One thing I can say for Chicken though, is even if you don't like his posting style or overuse of the 2c symbol  , he has been on some real winners - ZFX, SBM,.... So I think he will clean up on mgx in long term.
> 
> On a less positive note, I was very dissappointed to see directors selling $80k at the time the market expected word on the magnetite project. Obviously the director knew no BFS was forthcoming and would have known about the impact of the rail cars (problem initially announced mid 2005).
> 
> Cheers,Mark.




These things that you have pointed out are very significant in regards to share price movement as some of those reduce confidence in buyers(myself included) and therefore share price momentum....i personally wouldnt buy at 70 - 80 cents..like you said the 55- 63 cent mark is fair especially as there is no word on the magnetite as this is to be factored in to the highest value of the shaw report share price. I even think that within the next 3-4 mths there is a good probability that you could purchase at the 45 to 50 cent mark, but that will only be available to a buyer for any where between an hour or up to 2 days.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> These things that you have pointed out are very significant in regards to share price movement as some of those reduce confidence in buyers(myself included) and therefore share price momentum....i personally wouldnt buy at 70 - 80 cents..like you said the 55- 63 cent mark is fair especially as there is no word on the magnetite as this is to be factored in to the highest value of the shaw report share price. I even think that within the next 3-4 mths there is a good probability that you could purchase at the 45 to 50 cent mark, but that will only be available to a buyer for any where between an hour or up to 2 days.



Analyst I told you you have not got a clue you are just down ramping stock  MGX why...maybe you are part of Xtrata..you have not got a clue..I rest my case...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst I told you you have not got a clue you are just down ramping stock  MGX why...maybe you are part of Xtrata..you have not got a clue..I rest my case...



Analyst .....you said you asked the company for information....well so far show me one constructive post about MGX....which highlights MGX production its earnings etc..SILCH as far as I can see.....


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst .....you said you asked the company for information....well so far show me one constructive post about MGX....which highlights MGX production its earnings etc..SILCH as far as I can see.....





Take it easy chicken.....i have never denied once that that mgx will not reach the price heights or the reputation that you have declared...if all that is claimed about the stock is true and correct no problems...but my money is my money and i will decide when i think would be the best time to enter a trade...so i take the most critical view and in most cases the most critical analysis will enable you to find a lowest possible price and the probabilty that it will touch there for an intra day low or even a longer period..it also allows you to establish the probability of the highest possible price like the shaw analysis but you must remeber shaw has an established conflict of interest as it holds the stock and good luck to them but note i am no less qualified than most of the shaw analysis team and have a level of experience as well.

There are over 1400 stocks listed on the market as well as the large number of installment warrants which superannuation funds are confident and legislation allows them to invest in as well on top of this there are huge amounts of derivatives as well so at anytime these financial instruments present better trading and entry points for long term trades than mgx  and at sometime mgx will present a great  trading opportunity and medium to long term entry point as well like the other day and had i known a little more about the stock then i most likely would have bought in but i have learnt an incredible lot from the mgx postings and this has saved me valuable time by chatting to people who have the stock read the announcements and some good research & are experienced as well as those that have great bullish views and some that have moderate views and some critical, and by this i have been able to establish price ranges for the stock with regard to certian news.

Also Chicken there maybe a huge announcement today or next week and the stock could go thru the roof and then you can get on here and post "see analyst i was right and you were wrong you missed out on a good stock" but that wont bother me either at the end of the day i have my capital it is safe and i couldnt see into the future accurately enough to see this great announcement and tough i missed out and it happens all the time..the important thing to me is to get the greatest amount of probabilties that i can gather to have a winning trade.

I represent other investors and traders like myself and there are many like you...and i say cool   let that be i have no qualms with that.....


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

So far analyst you have NOT posted anything of substance..MGX earnings,PE or anything which might indicate you know...all I see is a lot of typing with nothing in it..like a politician...they can spout all day and say nothing..just a rattle...so how much money will MGX make profit this year or in the last quater..see you dont know....or as Schultz  would say...I KNOW NOTTING...I rest my case...or you have not answered me are you involved with XTRATA...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> So far analyst you have NOT posted anything of substance..MGX earnings,PE or anything which might indicate you know...all I see is a lot of typing with nothing in it..like a politician...they can spout all day and say nothing..just a rattle...so how much money will MGX make profit this year or in the last quater..see you dont know....or as Schultz  would say...I KNOW NOTTING...I rest my case...or you have not answered me are you involved with XTRATA...





P/E of 9 from the last full net earnings meaning that the share price has been multiplied 9 times by the net earnings per share being roughly 7.7 cents per share on a share price of 70 cents ..but  afair bit has happened since then and the stock is extremely volitile...as well as an earnings down grade which equates to a share price of between 55 and 60 cents on the current p/e applied to by the market.

Could you please tell me what its net earnings were for the full yr and until dec 30 this yr and also a history ogf its quarterly earnings.

All this in palce an accurate price can not be applied to mgx such as can be placed on a bluechip.....but it is a really good story for mgx so far and something that a lot of people can be proud of the work that they have done in getting the company to this stage not many miners actually make it and a good pick by those who invested.

Chicken could you please tell me what hematite is and what its function is in iron ore as well as magnetite and the iron pellets i am really keen in hearing about these as i never knew they existed until now and if you dont want to tell me chicken would some else be kind enough to explain?

Can you


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> P/E of 9 from the last full net earnings meaning that the share price has been multiplied 9 times by the net earnings per share being roughly 7.7 cents per share on a share price of 70 cents ..but  afair bit has happened since then and the stock is extremely volitile...as well as an earnings down grade which equates to a share price of between 55 and 60 cents on the current p/e applied to by the market.
> 
> Could you please tell me what its net earnings were for the full yr and until dec 30 this yr and also a history ogf its quarterly earnings.
> 
> All this in palce an accurate price can not be applied to mgx such as can be placed on a bluechip.....but it is a really good story for mgx so far and something that a lot of people can be proud of the work that they have done in getting the company to this stage not many miners actually make it and a good pick by those who invested.
> 
> Chicken could you please tell me what hematite is and what its function is in iron ore as well as magnetite and the iron pellets i am really keen in hearing about these as i never knew they existed until now and if you dont want to tell me chicken would some else be kind enough to explain?
> 
> Can you



So far the only thing you have done rattle and down ramped a stock where you have NOT posted facts..and are still doing it....MGX have billionsin $$$of Iron ore in the ground and are minig it making $$$ and are DEBT FREE.....so where is your problem......this comany is going to be no 4 in Australia in iron ore production...they are producing ,SELLING all they are producing......they have mines which is producing right...$$$$$ are made and NO CASH burn.....now regards paying a div....well 2007 will be fine as the company will be heaLTHY


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> So far the only thing you have done rattle and down ramped a stock where you have NOT posted facts..and are still doing it....MGX have billionsin $$$of Iron ore in the ground and are minig it making $$$ and are DEBT FREE.....so where is your problem......this comany is going to be no 4 in Australia in iron ore production...they are producing ,SELLING all they are producing......they have mines which is producing right...$$$$$ are made and NO CASH burn.....now regards paying a div....well 2007 will be fine as the company will be heaLTHY




Are you going to answer my questions?? or are you going to keep on with this behaviour...my next step Chicken will be asking the moderator if they can warn you to stop posting this stuff to me continually...once in a while..yer..ok..but it is becoming excessivley compulsive of you...i have tried to be nice to you and respect your veiws...actually..i have shown respect to you and your trading plan...in the mean time would some body help with the questions that i asked??


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Are you going to answer my questions?? or are you going to keep on with this behaviour...my next step Chicken will be asking the moderator if they can warn you to stop posting this stuff to me continually...once in a while..yer..ok..but it is becoming excessivley compulsive of you...i have tried to be nice to you and respect your veiws...actually..i have shown respect to you and your trading plan...in the mean time would some body help with the questions that i asked??




Chicken mgx is not debt free read the shaws report it has a debt/equity ratio


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Well funny that Analyst and answer me that how many $$$ have they got in the Bank..as far as debts those few mills they could pay that with the money in the bank a few times over see you are still downramping this stock..you dont have any MGX why do bother poisting..tell me that..so far all you do  is rattle as far as answering you stupid question what Hematic is..I know, DO YOU


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Well funny that Analyst and answer me that how many $$$ have they got in the Bank..as far as debts those few mills they could pay that with the money in the bank a few times over see you are still downramping this stock..you dont have any MGX why do bother poisting..tell me that..so far all you do  is rattle as far as answering you stupid question what Hematic is..I know, DO YOU




I am sitting here and genuinly would like to hear what you know about these resources and maybe and probally there are other people who would like a summary of the information...

hope to hear what you have to say Chicken...if not maybe someone else can share what they know of the above mentioned resources


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> ...if not maybe someone else can share what they know of the above mentioned resources




If it's not on their web page then it's pointless asking someone else! if someone does know then it's inside information.....and who ever is buying and selling in large volumes must has access to that information JMHO   

cheers laurie


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> If it's not on their web page then it's pointless asking someone else! if someone does know then it's inside information.....and who ever is buying and selling in large volumes must has access to that information JMHO
> 
> cheers laurie




Sorry Laurie, but i was asking about where these two materials come to be in the process of steel making.

Do you know??


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> I am sitting here and genuinly would like to hear what you know about these resources and maybe and probally there are other people who would like a summary of the information...
> 
> hope to hear what you have to say Chicken...if not maybe someone else can share what they know of the above mentioned resources



as I said before if you dont understand what you use iron ore and the magnetic hematic..well I WOULD SUGGEST you find a job in an office because next thing you want me to show you how to use a computer..get off the grass  and look it up..next thing you dont know what iron ore is used for...I am sure you playing games I know the answer...and I am sure you do to so get of the grass or whatever you smoke..genuin e...my foot


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Sorry Laurie, but i was asking about where these two materials come to be in the process of steel making.
> 
> Do you know??




Arh sorry.... right now   

cheers laurie


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> as I said before if you dont understand what you use iron ore and the magnetic hematic..well I WOULD SUGGEST you find a job in an office because next thing you want me to show you how to use a computer..get off the grass  and look it up..next thing you dont know what iron ore is used for...I am sure you playing games I know the answer...and I am sure you do to so get of the grass or whatever you smoke..genuin e...my foot




If you want to keep getting smart chicken i will tell you where you can find me and also dont ever accuse me of being a drug user becuase i am not i am still at a loss as to why this site has'nt suspended you as i gather our posts are drawing a lot of attention and they maybe getting paid for advertising by the number of hits a thread recieves...any way i am often at the ASX in Collins Street Melbourne so when ever you are ready and i dont care how old you are coz you are just a smart mouth come and say some of this stuff to my face and bring who you like because believe me you will get a surprise.

If you arnt sure who i am just look for a really well built fit guy with fair hair and blue eyes and ask the regulars there which one is the known boxer and kickboxer....because i have had ya you DOG of a man that u are...ANYTIME


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> as I said before if you dont understand what you use iron ore and the magnetic hematic..well I WOULD SUGGEST you find a job in an office because next thing you want me to show you how to use a computer..get off the grass  and look it up..next thing you dont know what iron ore is used for...I am sure you playing games I know the answer...and I am sure you do to so get of the grass or whatever you smoke..genuin e...my foot




Using Fundamental Analysis to Choose a Stock

Perhaps the easiest way to approach fundamental analysis is to think of yourself as someone who is about to purchase a business (in fact this is exactly what you are doing). Next, think of key drivers for the business and its growth in value. In the case of Zinifex (like most mining companies) key drivers of value (or share price) are profits and mine life and the directors dont sell their shares or use some excuse like the train is running late. So how do these stack up for Zinifex as say to MGX well ten years for a mine is not really a genuine business is it you would be better of say buying a fisn'n chip shop or open a stall at a local rag market.

Mine Life
Mine life is how long the mine will remain operational and is determined by the size and quality of the ore body underground. One way a mining company can be re-rated and experience share price growth is if it discovers the ore body its mining is bigger or better than expected. Of course this will only happen if it’s actually looking! The good news for investors is that Zinifex is looking and finding and we dont know about MGX though. If you check its ASX announcements you’ll see an announcement dated 25 August called the ‘Preliminary Final Report’. On page 2 under ‘Highlights’ we see that a key part of Zinifex’s strategy is to grow through exploration not sure about MGX though. Only 3 months later an announcement dated 25 October gives us initial results that suggest the Roseberry Mine could be bigger than first expected. This is good news for two reasons: firstly management is building market confidence by meeting targets but so far MGX hasnt and major shareholders are becoming unmajor shareholders; and secondly the mine will be profitable for longer but it has to last more than a measly ten years though just look at the MGX mine be lucky to last 10 years. Both of these can trigger share price growth but if they dont deliver the opposite.

Profits
Profits are what a business is left with after expenses; they can be paid out as dividends to investors(MGX dont like to share with their investors) or used to grow a business further or used for what the directors think best like they do at MGX. Zinifex has an excellent record of profits to date. Initially the company forecast a $63million profit for financial year 2005. Impressively it achieved a profit of $234million on the back of strong Lead and Zinc prices something MGX couldnt do actually they fell short of their promised target said something like the trains are running late, showing a healthy business that’s experiencing strong demand for its products. This also indicates that management is not only meeting targets but tending to under promise and over deliver, a great confidence builder for investors but not if you own to much MGX.


----------



## profithunter

*Re: MGX*

This thread just keeps getting better and better, not only did I make a nice profit on MGX because of it, now I am getting some good laughs reading the heated conversation between chicken and analyst.  Keep it up lads!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				profithunter said:
			
		

> This thread just keeps getting better and better, not only did I make a nice profit on MGX because of it, now I am getting some good laughs reading the heated conversation between chicken and analyst.  Keep it up lads!




iTs so funny...profitseeker even i cant stop laughing..but i am glad your making some dough out of it because after reading all the prior posts i know that CHICKEN certianly aint...this is a good place to hang **** on chicken...i might even start a thread called hang **** on chicken and even give him a stock code....DOG


----------



## trader

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> iTs so funny...profitseeker even i cant stop laughing..but i am glad your making some dough out of it because after reading all the prior posts i know that CHICKEN certianly aint...this is a good place to hang **** on chicken...i might even start a thread called hang **** on chicken and even give him a stock code....DOG




But I definetly would put money with chicken - apart from all the ramping
he has  the best insight into  companies on this forum and seems to be
the only one that actually researches the companies and doesn't come up
with all this bull about a double bottom and other chart nonsense , the only
way to pick winners is by analyzing the fundamentals of a company, they
mightn"t always go up straight away but in the long term they will . So I think you have got a long way to go ( SBM , ZFX say no more ) before you are in chicken's league. And no I am not his son.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				trader said:
			
		

> But I definetly would put money with chicken - apart from all the ramping
> he has  the best insight into  companies on this forum and seems to be
> the only one that actually researches the companies and doesn't come up
> with all this bull about a double bottom and other chart nonsense , the only
> way to pick winners is by analyzing the fundamentals of a company, they
> mightn"t always go up straight away but in the long term they will . So I think you have got a long way to go ( SBM , ZFX say no more ) before you are in chicken's league. And no I am not his son.




Taking sides are we??? I have never said  anything about where mgx. zfx or sbm will go in the long term so what do u know about me? and i what i actually think of a particular stock big gobb..the first thing i ever said about mgx actually happened.....so read my posts before you give an opinion about how far i have to go...And who is to say i dont analyz the fundamentals...I am a fundamentalist....and i have never said mgx is gonna go down the toilet either...if you have such a good mouth why dont you give me a summary like i asked earlier on in the day about mgx and asked that dog chicken nicely but like the smart mouth that he is refused to answer and only critised...i have only pointed out that MGX has a terminal value accirding to fundamentals and if chicken knows anything about fundamentals he would know what terminal value means and perpetuity means as well and so would you??...but he cant admit it...i have been happy to admit what i dont know but you and him now wont explain...so answer the questions just like markamu does and he is level headed doesnt take sides..just goes about his business....doesnt think that if someone hasnt the emotional feel for the stock like chicken should not have a say on the thread.

Chicken seems to be one of those old cockies that dont like to admit that a younger guy knows more than him...any way chicken hasnt got anything to be proud of we are going thru a mining boom and just like the dot com back in the late 90's any one could pick a dot com and make money i seen heaps of em and some thought they knew the market like chicken and because he picked 3 mining stocks thinks he is a boffin but can he pick the ones out side the mining bubble and make money...i reckon he cant and i actually know he cant and the fact is i can and lets see if chicken can read economic cycles and get out before they crumble with his dough...remember how they are now talking about dot com Senatas i held that stock in 99 and 2000 i was out at the top when it hit $2.20 or over and i traded it numerous times and now they are raving about it again...if you wanna challenge me to i will be happy to meet you at the asx with my buy and sell certifcates from that time just like i have done before to others i can prove what i do....and i know how to shut mouths as well..


Anyway put this on the record i now say that ..."mgx will possibly at one stage on the basis that what it has announced to the market is true and correct will reach a price over $1.40 and it will become the 3rd biggest iron ore producer in Australia on what it states" I also state that there will be stages like this week that its price will suddenly drop and i will be keeping my eyes on it that if i find that at anytime that its price drops to a place that fundamentally is below its true valuation and it gives me arbritage i definitely will but at this stage i say at anywhere below 55 cents and once those trains arrive its share price should get a bit more support.

So you tell me whats wrong with what i state?? what i stated has actually happened already and it was unexpected.


----------



## Porper

*Re: MGX*



			
				trader said:
			
		

> with all this bull about a double bottom and other chart nonsense , the only
> way to pick winners is by analyzing the fundamentals of a company, they
> mightn"t always go up straight away but in the long term they will .





Strange you call yourself trader but think charting is "nonsense".

Whichever way you invest/trade it is all subjective, just look at all the brokers "fundamental" reports, they are usually split between Buy, hold and sell.

I would also beware of following buy recs by anybody on here or any other forum.People run out of luck with their percentage of winners.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Before you can open your big beak Chicken.......I heard that you are getting listed on the stock exchange today and your code is....DOG....suites you to....i would like to spit and P*ss on you so can you come to the ASX in Melbourne so maybe i will get my opportunity......right in that big dirty slanderous mouth of yours....C**T.......for sure you must have been bashed a few times throughout your life and you cant go to your local pub i reckon cos soon as someone like you has a few beers your mouth wouldnt stop moving and you would be an expert on everything to wouldnt you???


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Before you can open your big beak Chicken.......I heard that you are getting listed on the stock exchange today and your code is....DOG....suites you to....i would like to spit and P*ss on you so can you come to the ASX in Melbourne so maybe i will get my opportunity......right in that big dirty slanderous mouth of yours....C**T.......for sure you must have been bashed a few times throughout your life and you cant go to your local pub i reckon cos soon as someone like you has a few beers your mouth wouldnt stop moving and you would be an expert on everything to wouldnt you???



Just goes to show you losing your cool..I have been insulted by experts..You are not one of them...LOLO...now to buisness..did anyone read the full update properly...I looked at it again and I discovered the company will do their own crushing of the ore starting the end of April..funny that no one mentioned it..I thought its important...re Anylist request..Hematic is worked into Pallets and then mixed into iron ore to give it different gradings of Steel..Hematic has slightly less FE than the normal iron ore..anyway look it up ..thats what I understamd about Hematic....and I believe there is no difference in price..LOLOLOLOLOLOLO


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Just goes to show you losing your cool..I have been insulted by experts..You are not one of them...LOLO...now to buisness..did anyone read the full update properly...I looked at it again and I discovered the company will do their own crushing of the ore starting the end of April..funny that no one mentioned it..I thought its important...re Anylist request..Hematic is worked into Pallets and then mixed into iron ore to give it different gradings of Steel..Hematic has slightly less FE than the normal iron ore..anyway look it up ..thats what I understamd about Hematic....and I believe there is no difference in price..LOLOLOLOLOLOLO




Thanks finally for being a gentlement for once...and explaining hematite...so why would mgx go out of their way to add hematite to iron ore with no extra financial incentive to do so??

Does mgx have to raise equity or borrow or is it going to use its own money to build the crushing facilities? Also how much will mgx save each year by engaging the crushing process itself and not paying an outsider?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Thanks finally for being a gentlement for once...and explaining hematite...so why would mgx go out of their way to add hematite to iron ore with no extra financial incentive to do so??
> 
> Does mgx have to raise equity or borrow or is it going to use its own money to build the crushing facilities? Also how much will mgx save each year by engaging the crushing process itself and not paying an outsider?



Now have you noticed..their cash balance of around $38 million..dont quote me but thats what I remember,,,the money is there for them in the Bank and I understand the Chinese are pretty well comitted as they want the Hematic..of 250mt....sothe company would not have gone ahead in ordering their own crusher and Railwagons if they had thought that their plan will not work..I comment MGX in having so much forsight after all their gearing is only $9 million which is nothing..the money they have got will pay for the plans and I pity just the junior miners around them as when the Chinese are on board this will blossom into a much larger outfit..should all happen before April...as per company statements....CHEERS..you make me lough


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Thanks finally for being a gentlement for once...and explaining hematite...so why would mgx go out of their way to add hematite to iron ore with no extra financial incentive to do so??
> 
> Does mgx have to raise equity or borrow or is it going to use its own money to build the crushing facilities? Also how much will mgx save each year by engaging the crushing process itself and not paying an outsider?



Re your first question....they mining the ironore first ,as the Hematics are in a different mine...and then starting to mine the hematics...a factory in China is being build which will take time and then the Hematics are send by sea to China where the Hematics are turned into Pallets....and then of course are being used in China..see Shaws report....as far as equity..no its self funding..  .


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Magnetite’s untapped potential

By BRENDA LEAHY

MAIN POINTS
	There is an increasing level of overseas interest in magnetite ore, which is a viable alternative to hematite/goethite ores.
	There are more than 20 identified magnetite deposits and prospects in Australia.
	Magnetite concentrate is an important feedstock for pellet production.

Australia's significant magnetite resources could hold the key to further expansion of Australian iron ore production and potentially help supply Asia's current and emerging iron ore and steel markets.

The potential is underlined by OneSteel's recently announced plans for a $250 million project to convert its Whyalla Steelworks in South Australia to produce steel from magnetite.

But despite the robust picture of accelerating sales and increasing demand for iron ore - primarily from China - Australia's magnetite resources, and their international market potential, remain largely untapped, according to Ralph Holmes, Iron Ore Program Manager at CSIRO Minerals.

"Awareness of our magnetite resources and our two current operational pellet plants is low among the main market - the steel industry within China and within Asia generally," Dr Holmes says.

CSIRO Minerals has been investigating magnetite deposits and prospects in Australia for some time. The work has been driven by the increasing level of overseas interest in magnetite ore, as well as indications that demand for hematite/goethite iron ores (the current primary sources in Australia), well outstrips supply.

CSIRO presented a profile of Australia's current and prospective magnetite resources to the Chinese at a recent major industry conference in Dalian as part of the ongoing effort to build awareness of potential opportunities.

Magnetite ore is a well-known, viable alternative to hematite/goethite ores. It can be beneficiated to produce high-grade concentrate suitable for either pellet or sinter production.

"Magnetite concentrate is a very important feedstock for pellet production," explains Dr Holmes.

"It is characterised by high iron grade and lower impurities, the benefit of the exothermic magnetite-to-haematite oxidation reaction and the production of quality pellets at lower firing temperature with less fuel and lower maintenance costs.

"As more pelletising capacity is currently being put into operation, or is under construction in China, there is a strong demand for pellet feedstock.

"However, while it is common knowledge that Australia has abundant hematite and goethite sinter fines and lump ores for the blast furnace, few Chinese steel companies are aware of our magnetite resources."

There are more than 20 identified magnetite deposits and prospects, mostly in Banded Iron Formation (BIF), located across South Australia, Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

These amount to an estimated 4.7 billion tonnes of magnetite resources in Western Australia, 1.6 billion tonnes in South Australia and about 700 million tonnes in Tasmania and Queensland.

Australia has one operational magnetite mine at Savage River in Tasmania (owned by Australian Bulk Minerals), which currently has estimated reserves of 227 million tonnes of magnetite ore.

The Iron Magnet Deposit (about 50 kilometres west of Whyalla in South Australia), soon to be developed by OneSteel, has an estimated reserve of 300 million tonnes of magnetite ore.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

What i would like to know now is how much mild steel does one tonne of iron make?

How much mild steel does one tonne of  hematite make??

How much mild steel does one tonne of magnetite make??

And is this the measure that all three minerals are sold and quoted on the world commodity markets?

Reason i want know know if hematite and magnetite make more steel than iron ore and if this is the case it may explain their effeciancy and cost savings as well and even eventually a higher price than just iron ore.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Just goes to show you losing your cool..I have been insulted by experts..You are not one of them...LOLO...now to buisness..did anyone read the full update properly...I looked at it again and I discovered the company will do their own crushing of the ore starting the end of April..funny that no one mentioned it..I thought its important...re Anylist request..Hematic is worked into Pallets and then mixed into iron ore to give it different gradings of Steel..Hematic has slightly less FE than the normal iron ore..anyway look it up ..thats what I understamd about Hematic....and I believe there is no difference in price..LOLOLOLOLOLOLO



Analyst and board,
Correction here, the Hematic which are turned into pallets after checking with a specialist in Iron production has informed me that the pallets are in fact HIGHER in FE ..iron concentration then normal iron ore..they are used in producing a higher quality steel and are in fact more expensive than normal iron ore..so MGX s....Pallets will be desirable to the Chinese as its use for better quality steel.....so the 250mt are now a more attrative business proposition..no wonder the Chinese are still keen to be involved in this project...thanks analyst for asking the question as I did not know myself...had the wrong end of the stick...makes me happy to know that MGX have indeed got a better proposition than I thought.....


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst and board,
> Correction here, the Hematic which are turned into pallets after checking with a specialist in Iron production has informed me that the pallets are in fact HIGHER in FE ..iron concentration then normal iron ore..they are used in producing a higher quality steel and are in fact more expensive than normal iron ore..so MGX s....Pallets will be desirable to the Chinese as its use for better quality steel.....so the 250mt are now a more attrative business proposition..no wonder the Chinese are still keen to be involved in this project...thanks analyst for asking the question as I did not know myself...had the wrong end of the stick...makes me happy to know that MGX have indeed got a better proposition than I thought.....




Hi Chicken

Do you think that you could get a price on all three minerals now(hematite, magnetite and iron ore) per tonne or in pallet form at current market price?

Then we can use the company estimates of there deposites and value the whole lot and we can class that as an asset that they have as well as adding the other current and non-current assets that are used in the mining operations because i know that their last NTA per share is about 22 cents and was wondering if that included the mining deposits as well?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hi Chicken
> 
> Do you think that you could get a price on all three minerals now(hematite, magnetite and iron ore) per tonne or in pallet form at current market price?
> 
> Then we can use the company estimates of there deposites and value the whole lot and we can class that as an asset that they have as well as adding the other current and non-current assets that are used in the mining operations because i know that their last NTA per share is about 22 cents and was wondering if that included the mining deposits as well?




The Analyst, you are wasting your time trying to ascertain all of the above when it comes to a stock like MGX. Those whom know roughly the tonnage P/A,  based on price per tonnage  over the minelife, will give you the most basic form of value of this company. Having said all that, is it really going to initiate you to buy this stock? 
My personal opinion is also not to worry too much about every discrete little figure as we all know, when you purchase into any mining company, figures can change overnight!! Resource Upgrades,Iron Ore Price Upgrades,Profit downgrades, etc etc etc. Can you see where I'm coming from. I could go on and on about 100's of instant variants that could happen!!!!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> The Analyst, you are wasting your time trying to ascertain all of the above when it comes to a stock like MGX. Those whom know roughly the tonnage P/A,  based on price per tonnage  over the minelife, will give you the most basic form of value of this company. Having said all that, is it really going to initiate you to buy this stock?
> My personal opinion is also not to worry too much about every discrete little figure as we all know, when you purchase into any mining company, figures can change overnight!! Resource Upgrades,Iron Ore Price Upgrades,Profit downgrades, etc etc etc. Can you see where I'm coming from. I could go on and on about 100's of instant variants that could happen!!!!




Hi Johhno

The stock is now on my watch list.....????.....Johnno i just asked some fair questions that i am sure Chicken or maybe yourself would know the current market price of all three minerals and the estimated amount that mgx has in the ground...i could find out myself but why?? when you have people on the thread who have the stock and they can probally answer off the top of their head.

The go is theat the 3 minerals are going to increase in value over the coming yr and forward...by know this stuff we can get a rough figure about where mgx earnings and earnings increases will be over the period...my guess is iron ore is going to increase by a minimum of 10% over the meduim term so this will be a 10% increase in earnings and an increase in share price in likely circumstances.

If i have the figures if mgx come out with an announcement like zinnifex do and underestimate their deposites and then when the market is alerted it has more and will increase its sales therefore its share price increases.

This is why i want to know...i may ask questions but i am The Analyst and everything i ask is for a reason though some may not realise what i am getting at?


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



> The stock is now on my watch list.....????.....Johnno i just asked some fair questions



TheAnalyst
Just out of curiosity do you do this for every share you buy! 

cheers laurie


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> TheAnalyst
> Just out of curiosity do you do this for every share you buy!
> 
> cheers laurie




Yes Laurie and especially a stock like this one as it is young...un proven and i want to know its parameters...its ok for someone who wants to buy and just hold...but i want to know its weaknesses and its strengths and i want to get the best entry point that i possibly can and have a good idea when its most likely going to increase in value and the drivers of thhis growth.

Other stocks in the top 200 are fairly easy to read compared to these small caps as they are much more volitile and unpredictable. For example Shaws bought in at 85 cents and they are ment to be good but i personally donot think that Shaws is the best...just imagine if they got in at a lower price.

See the top 200 have installment warrants issued over them so leverage is easy and i can put small amounts of capital and get good fast rewards but these smaller ones they do not have installments issued over them and it is highly unlikely due to risk that they would...so i think i can double or even triple my money on this stock eventually but not today but eventually and there is a few other mining stocks out there....but remember laurie bedfore the dot coms it was mining and if you hadnt got out fast enough back then you did your dough...so we are seeing the repeat of a cycle and it will happen again it always does...never been a time when it hasnt...


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



> so we are seeing the repeat of a cycle and it will happen again it always does...never been a time when it hasnt...




TheAnalyst
Yes true but every body say's we are going to have a correction! even my blind dog can see that *BUT WHEN * is what I want to know! every one  say's that phrase to cover themselves when it happens "See I told you so" I must admit I have never used charts just my gut feeling,knowledge of the stock and it's was my gut feeling about MGX that got me in @.44c I'm not at all knocking your method hey it's your money and you have every right to be cautious I'm a bit of a risk taker so horses for courses

cheers laurie

ps I do have a blind dog he's my best mate


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> TheAnalyst
> Yes true but every body say's we are going to have a correction! even my blind dog can see that *BUT WHEN * is what I want to know! every one  say's that phrase to cover themselves when it happens "See I told you so" I must admit I have never used charts just my gut feeling,knowledge of the stock and it's was my gut feeling about MGX that got me in @.44c I'm not at all knocking your method hey it's your money and you have every right to be cautious I'm a bit of a risk taker so horses for courses
> 
> cheers laurie
> 
> ps I do have a blind dog he's my best mate




yer, gut feeling sometimes works but can that be used as evidence in a court of law?......or as substance of a report for a valuation to interested parties?...which sector do you say is going to have a correction? mining? to be honest at the moment besides the trains not arriving on time in regards to MGX the biggest threat to its share price is the market price of iron ore and the next one is the amount of money that it has to spend on capital expendtiture which can be unpredictable and lumpy which is why there is no dividend.

The next one after that is the economic growth of china and india take a hit and then everyone is in for a little bit of trouble, except the banks of course.


MGX has the capacity to take on a whole more debt at this time and do not be surprised if it does in the form of preference shares or convertible notes or debentures...it may even raise equity but for future expansion and its current debt to equity ratio it all points to choosing debt as its next option.

You were very lucky to have got in so cheaply..so when did you get in at that price?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Analyst, as I said this company has potential, as for price..who knows? The price will be different than last year and the 250mt of Hematics you could say the pellets per ton will be anything from $80 to $120 per ton so it looks as if the Chinese understand what they are dealing with... the potential is in their assets....which look like many Billions of $$$......and of course the company is producing and shipping Iron ore...and making $$$$$$


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst, as I said this company has potential, as for price..who knows? The price will be different than last year and the 250mt of Hematics you could say the pellets per ton will be anything from $80 to $120 per ton so it looks as if the Chinese understand what they are dealing with... the potential is in their assets....which look like many Billions of $$$......and of course the company is producing and shipping Iron ore...and making $$$$$$




Is that the actual current price for hematite and have you got a web link to that?

Also what is the current price of magnetite?

I use to be a welder/boilermaker and to get a higher(stronger) tensile steel  manufaturers use to add i think it was more carbon to the steel so it would be harder than just your ordinary mild steel especially when we had to make conveyor belts, is this the reason why hematite and magnetite are better for mking this type of steel and it reduces the extra time and inputs into making harder more tensile steel than just having to use iron ore?


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



> You were very lucky to have got in so cheaply..so when did you get in at that price?




17/1/2005



> I use to be a welder/boilermaker




Arhhh now we are getting somewhere you guys use to make me brackets ect when I was a sparkie you guys were hopeless when we use to play 500 against you at smoko   

cheers laurie


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Is that the actual current price for hematite and have you got a web link to that?
> 
> Also what is the current price of magnetite?
> 
> I use to be a welder/boilermaker and to get a higher(stronger) tensile steel  manufaturers use to add i think it was more carbon to the steel so it would be harder than just your ordinary mild steel especially when we had to make conveyor belts, is this the reason why hematite and magnetite are better for mking this type of steel and it reduces the extra time and inputs into making harder more tensile steel than just having to use iron ore?




I am answering me own questions and yes i am on theright track, especially with this link....cost saving properties of magnetite are even better than hematite

http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/byteserve/...esa_journal/mj_35/mj35_onesteel_magnetite.pdf


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Anyone know the difference between magnite and magnesium and what it has to do with steel manufacturing????

This is a KEY question.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst and board,
> Correction here, the Hematic which are turned into pallets after checking with a specialist in Iron production has informed me that the pallets are in fact HIGHER in FE ..iron concentration then normal iron ore..they are used in producing a higher quality steel and are in fact more expensive than normal iron ore..so MGX s....Pallets will be desirable to the Chinese as its use for better quality steel.....so the 250mt are now a more attrative business proposition..no wonder the Chinese are still keen to be involved in this project...thanks analyst for asking the question as I did not know myself...had the wrong end of the stick...makes me happy to know that MGX have indeed got a better proposition than I thought.....



Correction..Hematic...should read MAGNETIC..... Also I understand the pellets are for that Chinese Steel manufacturing to meet exports Quality.....so its important for the Chinese to have the pellets for their steel...the plot is getting interesting


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Correction..Hematic...should read MAGNETIC..... Also I understand the pellets are for that Chinese Steel manufacturing to meet exports Quality.....so its important for the Chinese to have the pellets for their steel...the plot is getting interesting




Sorry to sound like a "Know It All" guys, but the MGX shareholders that have done their homework on this stock, have known the above for a few years now,hence my large holding!!  The government of China likes the idea of being more environmentally friendly, and with this pellet setup it is less intrusive on the environment!!!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Sorry to sound like a "Know It All" guys, but the MGX shareholders that have done their homework on this stock, have known the above for a few years now,hence my large holding!!  The government of China likes the idea of being more environmentally friendly, and with this pellet setup it is less intrusive on the environment!!!




I think its great johnno that you let us know.....but i would love a bit more indepth explanation of your knowledge in this area and anything that can be of help would be great to listen to.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> I think its great johnno that you let us know.....but i would love a bit more indepth explanation of your knowledge in this area and anything that can be of help would be great to listen to.



How about analyst you do some reading on the subject..I told you to go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  you get most of the information on the subject...as far as some of your question some are relevant but most of them are a dribble so far you have not posted anything positive about this stock..no information so next time you post how about some news or has the iron ore price risen..this is not a chatroom for meeting people but information I like from you...on the subject of MGX......


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> How about analyst you do some reading on the subject..I told you to go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  you get most of the information on the subject...as far as some of your question some are relevant but most of them are a dribble so far you have not posted anything positive about this stock..no information so next time you post how about some news or has the iron ore price risen..this is not a chatroom for meeting people but information I like from you...on the subject of MGX......




Actually, Chicken i have...probally more than what you realise and on top of that research and study on other securities and valuation techniques in regards to mining and industrial companies. Havent you seen some of the stuff i have posted and currently getting together an analyst team made up of different members and setting tasks as plenty of hands make light work and if we including you want to beat some of these professional research houses who have huge capital and trained professionals at their disposal we have to work like this together on this forum so we can get in and get out before thay do.

Something of interest to you ...i have not been able to find any price measurement for magnetite.....do you know??


Without being rude...you are not the Chief Executive Office of this thread


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Actually, Chicken i have...probally more than what you realise and on top of that research and study on other securities and valuation techniques in regards to mining and industrial companies. Havent you seen some of the stuff i have posted and currently getting together an analyst team made up of different members and setting tasks as plenty of hands make light work and if we including you want to beat some of these professional research houses who have huge capital and trained professionals at their disposal we have to work like this together on this forum so we can get in and get out before thay do.
> 
> Something of interest to you ...i have not been able to find any price measurement for magnetite.....do you know??
> 
> 
> Without being rude...you are not the Chief Executive Office of this thread



The Analyst, you've got no idea if you think you can get in and out of stocks before the big boys!!!!! The closest I have is a program which alerts me when a ASX ann. has been made in relation to MBL becoming a substantial holder.This has done me good on many stocks(TZN/CUO) etc etc   The big boys know news long before you and I do Analyst!!!!!!!!


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



> China now consumes 48 per cent of the world's cement and 20 per cent of its copper.
> 
> Mr Goode said China would be in what has been termed growth phase 1 through to 2010, and then would enter phase two of even higher growth.
> 
> "The world is trying to cope with phase 1, let alone higher consumption demand from 2010."
> 
> *He said Chinese companies would continue to search the world for new resources that they could control*





Hmmmmm that supports chicken claim here some what   

cheers laurie


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> The Analyst, you've got no idea if you think you can get in and out of stocks before the big boys!!!!! The closest I have is a program which alerts me when a ASX ann. has been made in relation to MBL becoming a substantial holder.This has done me good on many stocks(TZN/CUO) etc etc   The big boys know news long before you and I do Analyst!!!!!!!!




Elementary..Johnno..elementary...we actually have a way better chance because statistically people as such as you and I dont own any more than 5% of the stock so the marketability is much easier...but it is being done ...so don't doubt me....it is becoming less and less that the institutions know stuff before the entire market and that has been proven because no company director is really willing to disclose inside information these days as ASIC has really made a show of the ones who did and have been caught.

Did the big institutions have a chance to get out of TLS before any one else??

Cheers


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Elementary..Johnno..elementary...we actually have a way better chance because statistically people as such as you and I dont own any more than 5% of the stock so the marketability is much easier...but it is being done ...so don't doubt me....it is becoming less and less that the institutions know stuff before the entire market and that has been proven because no company director is really willing to disclose inside information these days as ASIC has really made a show of the ones who did and have been caught.
> 
> Did the big institutions have a chance to get out of TLS before any one else??
> 
> Cheers



Did the insto's have a chance to get out of TLS before anybody else? You look at the volume increase before Trugulllio announced that the company basically needs to be reformed(Last 1/4 of 2005) and then get back to me. 
I think a very high percentage would agree with me on ASFORUMS that insto know about upcoming news prior to market announcements.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Did the insto's have a chance to get out of TLS before anybody else? You look at the volume increase before Trugulllio announced that the company basically needs to be reformed(Last 1/4 of 2005) and then get back to me.
> I think a very high percentage would agree with me on ASFORUMS that insto know about upcoming news prior to market announcements.




If thats true then that is a criminal offence under the corporations act and ASIC must investigate as well as the federal police. I now ask why are they not doing this??


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I think a very high percentage would agree with me on ASFORUMS that insto know about upcoming news prior to market announcements.




And the Goverment the week before  :swear: 

cheers laurie


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> If thats true then that is a criminal offence under the corporations act and ASIC must investigate as well as the federal police. I now ask why are they not doing this??




Apparently ASIC was pretty pissed too when the ASX decided to wipe out brokers codes as this meant it is even harder to pinpoint a particular broker!!!
With my knowledge Analyst, I could tell you a few things about trading!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

I am really interested in hearing Johnno...you can send stuff to my mail box as well if you like.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Actually, Chicken i have...probally more than what you realise and on top of that research and study on other securities and valuation techniques in regards to mining and industrial companies. Havent you seen some of the stuff i have posted and currently getting together an analyst team made up of different members and setting tasks as plenty of hands make light work and if we including you want to beat some of these professional research houses who have huge capital and trained professionals at their disposal we have to work like this together on this forum so we can get in and get out before thay do.
> 
> Something of interest to you ...i have not been able to find any price measurement for magnetite.....do you know??
> 
> 
> Without being rude...you are not the Chief Executive Office of this thread



You know my style, so lets see what you can come up with..I want you to tell the board  news or some positive thoughts on MGX...this is a MGX board..not the local news..So I am waiting for some news.....Johnno should post some of his research...after all this one will run as soon as we know the new Iron ore prices..did any one see that MGX are giving a presentation in the Steel conference in Kalgorlie in February....this year..now that sort of information is relevant to the investors...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> Hmmmmm that supports chicken claim here some what
> 
> cheers laurie




Read that article in yesterdays paper...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> You know my style, so lets see what you can come up with..I want you to tell the board  news or some positive thoughts on MGX...this is a MGX board..not the local news..So I am waiting for some news.....Johnno should post some of his research...after all this one will run as soon as we know the new Iron ore prices..did any one see that MGX are giving a presentation in the Steel conference in Kalgorlie in February....this year..now that sort of information is relevant to the investors...




The good news is that if ore continues to hold..and yes..the good news is that mgx are taking advantage of China's progress in building there own manufacturing facilities to produce steel from raw iron ore, hematite and magnetite and are securing for themselves a market for there product and yes it is a smart strategic alliance with the Chinese...and insulating themselves from any stall in the price of ore..

Have you got a price for magnetite yet??


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> You know my style, so lets see what you can come up with..I want you to tell the board  news or some positive thoughts on MGX...this is a MGX board..not the local news..So I am waiting for some news.....Johnno should post some of his research...after all this one will run as soon as we know the new Iron ore prices..did any one see that MGX are giving a presentation in the Steel conference in Kalgorlie in February....this year..now that sort of information is relevant to the investors...




Also i have been looking at control value of mgx not portfolio value and actually it is quite high.....so if a BHP or a RIO wanted it they would be willing to pay a much highher price....but the bad news is?????...if steel dropped in value by double digits this stock would be in trouble....and thts the thing about these mining companies..in the last boom as soon as prices crashed...well the mines had to shut because it wasnt worth them producing as they would not have even broken even....NOW can all those miners out there quickly get their goods out of the ground and for sale before the show is over???...

Which ones do you think will and which ones wont?? And which ones do the directors of know that they wont make it so are converting there options bit by bit??


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Also i have been looking at control value of mgx not portfolio value and actually it is quite high.....so if a BHP or a RIO wanted it they would be willing to pay a much highher price....but the bad news is?????...if steel dropped in value by double digits this stock would be in trouble....and thts the thing about these mining companies..in the last boom as soon as prices crashed...well the mines had to shut because it wasnt worth them producing as they would not have even broken even....NOW can all those miners out there quickly get their goods out of the ground and for sale before the show is over???...
> 
> Which ones do you think will and which ones wont?? And which ones do the directors of know that they wont make it so are converting there options bit by bit??



So far you are still negative..the super cycle we are experiencing at present is due to China..and the forecasts are for the next 4 to 5 years..you still dont understand..China has a Billion people, the population of Australia..is in Beijing alone of 19 to 20 million people..if you had gone there and seen it you understand this is not a 5 minutes affair...so you see you got to think outside the square and once you understand that than you understand that China needs Australian minerals to build up from before..a different ballgame than what you think..China will overtake America within in the next 10 years in consuption and  production....so once you see that then you understand why the steel industry is important..ah I forgot...you have no shares in MGX....but it will all gel within the next 3 months regardless what I say or you say...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> So far you are still negative..the super cycle we are experiencing at present is due to China..and the forecasts are for the next 4 to 5 years..you still dont understand..China has a Billion people, the population of Australia..is in Beijing alone of 19 to 20 million people..if you had gone there and seen it you understand this is not a 5 minutes affair...so you see you got to think outside the square and once you understand that than you understand that China needs Australian minerals to build up from before..a different ballgame than what you think..China will overtake America within in the next 10 years in consuption and  production....so once you see that then you understand why the steel industry is important..ah I forgot...you have no shares in MGX....but it will all gel within the next 3 months regardless what I say or you say...




Hey...i absolutly agree with you Chicken..at this point the price and demand of steel aint gonna drop...but what if?? but probabilities are on the positive rather than the negative....and what you said about the super cycle is probally true....so from your estimates of say 5 - 10 yrs...tells you and me that if a miner dont get their ass into gear within the next 2-3 yrs they aint one to invest in...mgx has their ass into gear...and i am waiting for a time that i think is the right time to buy and i am getting closer..as well as looking at another few miners....and some of them have installment warrants which can make them much more attractive and less riskier than say mgx as well..


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hey...i absolutly agree with you Chicken..at this point the price and demand of steel aint gonna drop...but what if?? but probabilities are on the positive rather than the negative....and what you said about the super cycle is probally true....so from your estimates of say 5 - 10 yrs...tells you and me that if a miner dont get their ass into gear within the next 2-3 yrs they aint one to invest in...mgx has their ass into gear...and i am waiting for a time that i think is the right time to buy and i am getting closer..as well as looking at another few miners....and some of them have installment warrants which can make them much more attractive and less riskier than say mgx as well..



Tell me when are you buying shares in MGX.....???  Because as long as you sit on the sideline you really are just wasting time. Why bother...post on something you are involved in...time is money


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Tell me when are you buying shares in MGX.....???  Because as long as you sit on the sideline you really are just wasting time. Why bother...post on something you are involved in...time is money




If i had researched the stock as well as i have now and knew a bit more about it...i would have got in the other day when it hit below 60cents...i have been a bit slow with the miners as i have had an extremly busy year last year....as well as trading stocks i am familiar with...its just that i am on holidays until 1 March...so i have had time to the the research and catch up on the mining scene and start to apply some valuations to the ones i have just started to get to know...you have to remember some of these stocks that are going off at the  moment have been around for a long time and have done it before over previous yrs some of them even became dot coms such as pilbara and you know about davnet dont you??

So i will take my time as the market is always there and i have two open positions at the moment...and i dont want to go into to much detail about what i am up to as then every one knows what i am doing and then it will no longer be a secret...remember chicken i have the same qualifications as most of these analysts that work at brokerage houses and investment banks..if not more..thats why i can come along to the mining sector and begin to trade it straight away....its like i was driving a fast commodore just have to get used to this ferrari.

I have done two trades on mining stocks in the last 4 mths and both have been positive so i will apply the same strategy on mgx and i have a few others on the watchlist now and will keep my eye on those as the more i have the probabilities there will be of a buying opportunity for me one any one of those.

Notice mgx has been losing momentum lately...even on the good days in this year and it still has been dropping by a cent each day over the last few days whilst the market has been good for miners....i reckon i will get it cheaper than todays price soon...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Price:   0.66 
Change:   -0.01 
Open:  0.67 
High:  0.67 
Low:  0.66 
Volume:  1,527,674 
Percent Change:  -1.49% 
Yield:  n/a 
P/E Ratio:  8.87 
52 Week Range: 0.265 to 0.97


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=au:nab&time=&freq=

Notice large but not huge abnormal volume whilst the price drops....BEARISH..also note the money flow indicator.....not good...a bit like bluescope when it hits the ground and lands in sh*t...but there is also a medium term candle pattern and i aint gonna say much...but a chartist knows what it means and so do i.....TIMING...TIMING...TIMING...

Who else is leaving through the back door???


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=au:nab&time=&freq=
> 
> Notice large but not huge abnormal volume whilst the price drops....BEARISH..also note the money flow indicator.....not good...a bit like bluescope when it hits the ground and lands in sh*t...but there is also a medium term candle pattern and i aint gonna say much...but a chartist knows what it means and so do i.....TIMING...TIMING...TIMING...
> 
> Who else is leaving through the back door???




Before you get smart change the symbol to mgx and i guess you can see what stocks i watch as well?? And set it to 6 months for time.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: MGX*

I've just removed a couple of posts from this thread because they have gotten a little too personal.

I just want to remind everyone to please stay on topic. It is fine to disagree with someone, that is the nature of discourse, but abuse or personal attacks are not acceptable at ASF. If you feel someone is baiting you, do not take the bait. If, in your opinion, someone has stepped over the line then please contact either myself or one of your friendlly ASF moderators (RichKid, WayneL) immediately and action will be taken.

Thanks.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*

Does anyone think that mgx will go below 66 cents and if so can you also give reasons?


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Does anyone think that mgx will go below 66 cents and if so can you also give reasons?




YES.By giving you a reason are you going to initiate a BUY for yourself analyst or are you going to ride on others  coat-tails and hold out for where I think it will go?


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> YES.By giving you a reason are you going to initiate a BUY for yourself analyst or are you going to ride on others  coat-tails and hold out for where I think it will go?




Ok Johnno where do u think it will go and why?? getting personal are we?? Even to reasonable questions??


----------



## Mumbank

*Re: MGX*

Gee guys this thread sure has provided lots of entertainment.  Forums are great ways of expressing your opinion but gee Analyst you sure take it to heart if someone questions you.  Lighten up and remember there is no such thing as a free lunch so perhaps Johno doesnt want to tell you everything.  Anyway keep up the FRIENDLY banter guys, its very entertaining.


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Mumbank said:
			
		

> Gee guys this thread sure has provided lots of entertainment.  Forums are great ways of expressing your opinion but gee Analyst you sure take it to heart if someone questions you.  Lighten up and remember there is no such thing as a free lunch so perhaps Johno doesnt want to tell you everything.  Anyway keep up the FRIENDLY banter guys, its very entertaining.




Well said MUMBANK!! ha ha ha.  Being an ex serviceman, I can tell you, A War cannot be won by telling everybody your strategy!!!!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				Mumbank said:
			
		

> Gee guys this thread sure has provided lots of entertainment.  Forums are great ways of expressing your opinion but gee Analyst you sure take it to heart if someone questions you.  Lighten up and remember there is no such thing as a free lunch so perhaps Johno doesnt want to tell you everything.  Anyway keep up the FRIENDLY banter guys, its very entertaining.



 first you tell me to lighten up..then you open your gob as well...what is it with u ? you open your mouths and then say nothing..no reasons and just get personal?

i know why? cos usually when a guy like me comes on who has studied and is smarter the only thing you can do is critiziz...now Johnno and u have both just done the opposite to what the moderator told u in his earlier post...no personal attacks...i guarantee u if u's continue i reckon there will be some suspensions coming up.

So why dont you answer my 66 cent question....and how do any of you know if i dont hold mgx and maybe i am in the accumualting phase??


Moderator I know you are reading the posts..particularly on this thread ..but can you once and for all put a stop to there bullsh*t personal attacks??

Also i know that other paid analysts and brokers have been reading my posts and know what i am going on about with this stock...can know i know something just by the language that i use...certian others dont have a clue...but i respect and highly regard there opinion...why??..because usually older people like Chicken who have been in the market for a long time mantally know how to handle the market and usually get it right as the can research...a proven fact...i know a 70 year old guy who has been involved in the stock market for 30 years and he has never done a course but has common sense and experience and he has made more from the market than he has from working in his chosen profession.


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> See i told you Laurie and Chicken you were gonna get yourselves into trouble...even the moderator is on my side because i have been responsable and stuck to the thread and have done the right thing and offered a balanced view on mgx...




FMD a bit of fun is removed!! my comment wasn't personal I had a wink smilie after the comment the point was if you are this fussy......sorry this is my last post here if this is moderation then there are other places people don't take jokes too seriously

cheers and bye laurie


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Moderator I know you are reading the posts..particularly on this thread ..but can you once and for all put a stop to there bullsh*t personal attacks??




I do not consider Mumbank's post a personal attack. He was merely commenting on all the drama in this thread.

It looks like things are getting quite heated so perhaps the best course of action is for everyone involved to give this thread a bit of a wide berth for a day or two, let this all die down and then come back and start discussing MGX in a calm and rational manner!

Laurie: Please check your private messages.


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*

To All

I have accepted Joe's reason for my post being deleted so I am back but not on this thread

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

So far Analyst you have not contributed anything to MGX just a lot of hot air when you come up with proper news I shall answer you in the meantime I am not interested in dribble...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> So far Analyst you have not contributed anything to MGX just a lot of hot air when you come up with proper news I shall answer you in the meantime I am not interested in dribble...




I hold mgx so i can say what i think...and havent you taken note of what Joe said to you?? Or just get of the forum completely until you know how to conduct yourself in an orderly marketable fashion...

This is an mgx thread not a CHICKEN opinion thread...and i know deep inside you ..you wish you were like me at my age....but i got on the ball faster and retired before you ever could dream of..chickadee

And i reckon i will get more mgx at cheaper prices...but the upside is better than the downside


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> I hold mgx so i can say what i think...and havent you taken note of what Joe said to you?? Or just get of the forum completely until you know how to conduct yourself in an orderly marketable fashion...
> 
> This is an mgx thread not a CHICKEN opinion thread...and i know deep inside you ..you wish you were like me at my age....but i got on the ball faster and retired before you ever could dream of..chickadee
> 
> And i reckon i will get more mgx at cheaper prices...but the upside is better than the downside




I think the moderator needs to step up and take a little control here. The Analyst is clearly not too "Switched ON" and is now getting personal  with Chicken again, which is what he was percieving others were doing to him.
Guys we are all here to give positive inputs!!!!!!!!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I think the moderator needs to step up and take a little control here. The Analyst is clearly not too "Switched ON" and is now getting personal  with Chicken again, which is what he was percieving others were doing to him.
> Guys we are all here to give positive inputs!!!!!!!!




Well give em then...i have..i even now own mgx just like u's...but i aint finished my buying yet


----------



## ralphski

*Re: MGX*

Well back to the matter at hand....

MGX looks like going up sharply first thing Monday morning. If you have a look at the depth, very few people are willing to sell only 600,000 units available between $0.65 and $0.70. While 2,000,000 wanting to buy between 0.60 and 0.65. We will see what happens, but basic D&S is in effect here.

It's RSI was approaching 20... and I know alot of stockbroker reports that charge exhubarant prices based primarly on RSIs.

For those that bought MGX yesterday looking for a quickie, should get a nice smile on Monday.


----------



## The Barbarian Investor

*Re: MGX*

WOW this thread has continued and continued....


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> WOW this thread has continued and continued....



The buying by the Chinese out of Hong Kong was a plus for this stock..yes the sellers oversold at present price and as the Chinese are buying at 75 cents where does the board thinks the price will go to...at least 75 cents....thats my opinion.....and I had faith in this stock because of their earnings...I am still holding my shares as posted.


----------



## Ann

*Re: MGX*

It may be time for a chart. You know, in my opinion this big drop did not need to happen. It was a very clumsy profit downgrade that did it and if you read the presentation the problem isn't that bad. I think the next time they should employ a spin doctor for negative announcements!


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				Ann said:
			
		

> It may be time for a chart. You know, in my opinion this big drop did not need to happen. It was a very clumsy profit downgrade that did it and if you read the presentation the problem isn't that bad. I think the next time they should employ a spin doctor for negative announcements!




I maybe wrong, but I feel that more downgraded profits will be aware to the market for the half yearly due in FEB. Reason, Profit downgrade pre Christmas based on Wagon Delay and second slippage problem which will downgrade tonnage which is completely seperate from the wagon situation!!!!
The other worry is Analysts are pleading the obvious and stating that the resource sector is well and truely overbought. (Examples in Melbournes papers today,Herald-Sun/The Age). If their statements are correct in relation to a 25% ASX fall, well non dividend paying stocks,( ie. MGX,MMX,AZR) are going to really going to be dumped.
Like I said I hope I am wrong!!!!!!


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I maybe wrong, but I feel that more downgraded profits will be aware to the market for the half yearly due in FEB. Reason, Profit downgrade pre Christmas based on Wagon Delay and second slippage problem which will downgrade tonnage which is completely seperate from the wagon situation!!!!
> The other worry is Analysts are pleading the obvious and stating that the resource sector is well and truely overbought. (Examples in Melbournes papers today,Herald-Sun/The Age). If their statements are correct in relation to a 25% ASX fall, well non dividend paying stocks,( ie. MGX,MMX,AZR) are going to really going to be dumped.
> Like I said I hope I am wrong!!!!!!




In regards to the downgrades for MGX...the wagons in valuation analysis is now considered an extraordinary even under the nwe IAS's or International Accounting Standards that have just been adopted in Australia..this means it is not taken into account when valuing and same with the slippage problems...what happens if the slippage begins to become a regualar occurance then it will start to be consider in the valuation before extraordinarys.

At present the market globally is starting to accept that the price of ore will rise in the next couple of weeks and the signs are already showing in the ore forward contract from India it is roughly trading at 20-25% above the spot price..at present roughly $41 or something US $'s a tonne and the spot march forward prive is above this..it is a rough recollection..so correct me if i am wrong.

Currently mgx price is cheap on a real valuation but it still can drop but not for long so it will be a buy...it is fortunate because it has a lot more resistence to bad news than a lot of the other miners..because it has well and truly got production up and running way before the boom is over and it is getting its infratstructure in place to continue growth.


----------



## laurie

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> If their statements are correct in relation to a 25% ASX fall, well non dividend paying stocks,( ie. MGX,MMX,AZR) are going to really going to be dumped.
> Like I said I hope I am wrong!!!!!!




Then that will be my cue to come back in for more   I think AZR will bleed more than MGX  

cheers laurie


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Analyst the unfortunate thing for MGX is that it is a Single Based Commodity Company and the truth be it, brokers have this stock categorized as HIGH RISK.


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> In regards to the downgrades for MGX...the wagons in valuation analysis is now considered an extraordinary even under the nwe IAS's or International Accounting Standards that have just been adopted in Australia..this means it is not taken into account when valuing and same with the slippage problems...what happens if the slippage begins to become a regualar occurance then it will start to be consider in the valuation before extraordinarys.
> 
> At present the market globally is starting to accept that the price of ore will rise in the next couple of weeks and the signs are already showing in the ore forward contract from India it is roughly trading at 20-25% above the spot price..at present roughly $41 or something US $'s a tonne and the spot march forward prive is above this..it is a rough recollection..so correct me if i am wrong.
> 
> Currently mgx price is cheap on a real valuation but it still can drop but not for long so it will be a buy...it is fortunate because it has a lot more resistence to bad news than a lot of the other miners..because it has well and truly got production up and running way before the boom is over and it is getting its infratstructure in place to continue growth.



Analyst I agree with this post as you said the market is aware..iron ore prices will rise I heared that Bloomfield posted an article where it was said BHP negotiated an increase of 18%.....as far as the other poster saying there will be a dump on monday.....just the opposite will happen..more buyers than sellers now...and yes at these prices the stock is cheap....we will hit 70cents very quickly see what Anns graph shows it has bounced of and..with the Chinese who are still buying..70cents will be easily breached..after all they bought between 70cents and 65cents.....and you are right they have one thing in their favour...they are producing....and making the $$$$... with a PE of 7 now its cheap...


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Whom stated a dump on Monday and why would this occurr who ever stated that?
Cheers
Johnno


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Analyst the unfortunate thing for MGX is that it is a Single Based Commodity Company and the truth be it, brokers have this stock categorized as HIGH RISK.




That is so thru Johnno...any stock that is a single commodity is high risk...but experienced investors/traders know that this is a micro economic cycle and we are not at the peak or at the trough of the cycle but still in the expansion stage and the last part of the expansion phase is always the greatest increase and therefore can time an exit themselves.

Within the high risk category profile is again different levels of risk and by diversifying you can reduce your risk to this...but out of the high risks mgx is not the highest risk say to you and i...i bought at 67 cents so i still have done quite well for an entry and if at any stage it drops below 60 cents and depending on the reason i think i will accummulate more.

And they have catergorised it so when it does finish its run they cant get sued for not warning their clients and they have also ensured that anyone they recommend to has a high risk profile just like they did in the dot.com days...well almost a lot got sued


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I maybe wrong, but I feel that more downgraded profits will be aware to the market for the half yearly due in FEB. Reason, Profit downgrade pre Christmas based on Wagon Delay and second slippage problem which will downgrade tonnage which is completely seperate from the wagon situation!!!!
> The other worry is Analysts are pleading the obvious and stating that the resource sector is well and truely overbought. (Examples in Melbournes papers today,Herald-Sun/The Age). If their statements are correct in relation to a 25% ASX fall, well non dividend paying stocks,( ie. MGX,MMX,AZR) are going to really going to be dumped.
> Like I said I hope I am wrong!!!!!!



Laurie read this...but of course I do not agree..after all...look at present depth..of buys and sells....2 million shares are wanted between 60c to 65 cents....and only 600k shares are up for sale the sellers pulled their stock as a higher price is wanted...by the way who cares about dividents..only longterm holders but...in the USA most stocks pay no dividents and they could cost you $100 each..so that article is scaremongering..and maybe some one slung him a few $$$ to print rubbish like that....see also news Geralton are building another berth at the harbour for $35million for the shipment of Iron ore..as far as the company is concerned they may supprise....and the Hong Kong people who bought are also property developers...Steel for building highrises+they know what Shougan will do....as they are paying 75cents per share..BHP may announce their %%% increase maybe next week


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Laurie read this...but of course I do not agree..after all...look at present depth..of buys and sells....2 million shares are wanted between 60c to 65 cents....and only 600k shares are up for sale the sellers pulled their stock as a higher price is wanted...by the way who cares about dividents..only longterm holders but...in the USA most stocks pay no dividents and they could cost you $100 each..so that article is scaremongering..and maybe some one slung him a few $$$ to print rubbish like that....see also news Geralton are building another berth at the harbour for $35million for the shipment of Iron ore..as far as the company is concerned they may supprise....and the Hong Kong people who bought are also property developers...Steel for building highrises+they know what Shougan will do....as they are paying 75cents per share..BHP may announce their %%% increase maybe next week



 I don't at all doubt you Chicken that an Increase in Iron Ore Price will boost all Iron Ore Related stocks. Fantastic as I hold 7figures of MGX, but at the same time we have to be honest and realistic on this forum and thats exactly what I've done in terms of warning holders of possibly more downgrades for MGX. Slippage problems will reduce profits!!!!
Sounds like Chickens very concerned with his entry point in all honesty.Laurie as for the Iron Ore price being known next week, I doubt it very much!!!!! 2nd week of FEB is probably about the time Iron Ore Prices maybe released to the market!!!!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I don't at all doubt you Chicken that an Increase in Iron Ore Price will boost all Iron Ore Related stocks. Fantastic as I hold 7figures of MGX, but at the same time we have to be honest and realistic on this forum and thats exactly what I've done in terms of warning holders of possibly more downgrades for MGX. Slippage problems will reduce profits!!!!
> Sounds like Chickens very concerned with his entry point in all honesty.Laurie as for the Iron Ore price being known next week, I doubt it very much!!!!! 2nd week of FEB is probably about the time Iron Ore Prices maybe released to the market!!!!



Mate the chinese just bought 8 million shares between 65c to 70 c so who the hell are you with your 100 share....investment..slippage my foot..happends to all miners and no one takes to much notice you seem to think its the end of the world..well keep thinking that because its not so...we will see what happends on monday and proof to you I know...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Mate the chinese just bought 8 million shares between 65c to 70 c so who the hell are you with your 100 share....investment..slippage my foot..happends to all miners and no one takes to much notice you seem to think its the end of the world..well keep thinking that because its not so...we will see what happends on monday and proof to you I know...



jOHNNO..i MEANT YOUR 7 FIGURE  INVESTMENT IN THIS STOCK..ANOTHER WORDS YOU DID YOUR RESEARCH..i DID MINE AND FEEL THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER RESOURCE STOCKS...IT HAS PRODUCTION IT MAKES $$$ money in the bank....and only very little debt....and the share price is SO LOW...should be around $1.25 at least...and the Chinese buying 8 million shares....and people still trying to tell us we are wrong what a laugh....see what happends monday...after all the PE is about 7......Cheap,CHEAP the stock is Cheap...


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> jOHNNO..i MEANT YOUR 7 FIGURE  INVESTMENT IN THIS STOCK..ANOTHER WORDS YOU DID YOUR RESEARCH..i DID MINE AND FEEL THIS IS ONE OF THE BETTER RESOURCE STOCKS...IT HAS PRODUCTION IT MAKES $$$ money in the bank....and only very little debt....and the share price is SO LOW...should be around $1.25 at least...and the Chinese buying 8 million shares....and people still trying to tell us we are wrong what a laugh....see what happends monday...after all the PE is about 7......Cheap,CHEAP the stock is Cheap...




Chicken can u jot my memory to when the hematite will come in to production and also when the magnetite will as well?


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Chicken can u jot my memory to when the hematite will come in to production and also when the magnetite will as well?



Analyst you are trying again to bait me ....well here it goes....the magnetic is going to be mined in the next 3 years..right have you got that at MT GIBSON..and at present the ordinary iron ore hematic is being mined...hope you got that ...MGX makes its money at present out of the ordinary iron ore profit will be between $38 million to $50 million..this year....did you get that Analyst..I said to myself I am going to be niece to you in future...after all you do come up with some intresting facts which I have not considered...


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

No one seems to give the company credit for now at the end of April MGX are going to crush their own metal the plant is at present being installed...


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

Between Chicken & The Analyst, the MGX thread has been given life in terms of HUMOUR!!!!!! Are these two for real or are there really people out there like this?


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst you are trying again to bait me ....well here it goes....the magnetic is going to be mined in the next 3 years..right have you got that at MT GIBSON..and at present the ordinary iron ore hematic is being mined...hope you got that ...MGX makes its money at present out of the ordinary iron ore profit will be between $38 million to $50 million..this year....did you get that Analyst..I said to myself I am going to be niece to you in future...after all you do come up with some intresting facts which I have not considered...




Chicken, honestly i am not trying to bait you...now hematic is not ordinary iron ore it is a higher and rarer quality ore...so at present mgx is producing ordinary iron ore and also hematic ore or just hematic?

Now in the next 3 yrs will the ore be mined and ready straight for sale? 


Also i have suspicions that the tail walls were pushed in on purpose and it was on purpose the train carrying ballasts did not turn up so it could be genuinely announced to the market and the share price would drop and allow others who wanted to buy at cheaper prices be given the opportunity.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Between Chicken & The Analyst, the MGX thread has been given life in terms of HUMOUR!!!!!! Are these two for real or are there really people out there like this?




Yes Johnno..its people like me who get paid the most in the finance section as well...we dont just remain ordinary tax accountants we take the next step...this place is where i sharpen my skills......


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

I can ascertain thru your posts that your not switched on enough to be an accountant. Don't crap on Analyst!!!!! You have asked some pretty stupid general knowledge questions, that many on ASF would know.


----------



## TheAnalyst

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I can ascertain thru your posts that your not switched on enough to be an accountant. Don't crap on Analyst!!!!! You have asked some pretty stupid general knowledge questions, that many on ASF would know.





Can you save your s*** for the senetas thread....and there are people on this forum who know that i am an accountant...so who cares what you have to say...you are only making it harder for others by saying the stuff that you say..because a lot of people must really benefit from getting a person who is qualified for the industry to give there questions and views on things from that angle...u may not but you are not every one..and i reckon you are coming close to being suspension material as Joe Blow has already warned us to watch our behaviour and he said next time there will be suspensions and me and Chicken seem to respect what has been warned or why dont you just get off the mgx thread..

I do appreciate your view but u just got heaps of stuff to say dont you..


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Chicken, honestly i am not trying to bait you...now hematic is not ordinary iron ore it is a higher and rarer quality ore...so at present mgx is producing ordinary iron ore and also hematic ore or just hematic?
> 
> Now in the next 3 yrs will the ore be mined and ready straight for sale?
> 
> 
> Also i have suspicions that the tail walls were pushed in on purpose and it was on purpose the train carrying ballasts did not turn up so it could be genuinely announced to the market and the share price would drop and allow others who wanted to buy at cheaper prices be given the opportunity.



You could be right...maybe Shougan is all ready buying...and the latest is that the Brazilins looking at an increase of price as high as 40%....BHP said it will be closer to 20% increase but we will see..I knew this stock is OK its just the other Poker players who are using mirrors to confuse the issue...JOHNNO you will make your $$$ I am sure so will I......and I am a real person....


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*

MGX not lookin' too flash at present. Support @ mid 60's but nothing below that, so god help it if 64.5/65 get takin out!!! Needs some news ffffaaaassstt!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*

Johnno...have faith..after all we climbed another 2 cents yesterday..watch how it will run as soon as the FE price is announced...anything between 18% to 40% is anticipated..have faith it all will happen..


----------



## johnno261

*Re: MGX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Johnno...have faith..after all we climbed another 2 cents yesterday..watch how it will run as soon as the FE price is announced...anything between 18% to 40% is anticipated..have faith it all will happen..




No need to tell me to have faith Chicken. My holding speaks for that itself!


----------



## chicken

*Re: MGX*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> No need to tell me to have faith Chicken. My holding speaks for that itself!



yep,you are right mine are only 200k....so yours is a lot higher...I am a great believer that it will all happen.....and the brokers report on MGX side is factual which is so...www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  annyone who likes to check its all there.....


----------



## johnno261

Chicken have you still got your feathers? What was the deal with BJ offloading 5,000,000 shares? I have not read the ann. as yet. More down side tomorrow expected if the djia falls which i think it will. Futures looking poor at present 16:00AEST. Nikkei has fallen 300+ points at present too. 
Did you get a chance to peruse at that photo at SHARESCENE under the MGX posts. Photo is of the railway line that MGX use. Partly washed away and no way anybody could run a train over it. Have not heard any news to the market regarding this have we?


----------



## TheAnalyst

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken have you still got your feathers? What was the deal with BJ offloading 5,000,000 shares? I have not read the ann. as yet. More down side tomorrow expected if the djia falls which i think it will. Futures looking poor at present 16:00AEST. Nikkei has fallen 300+ points at present too.
> Did you get a chance to peruse at that photo at SHARESCENE under the MGX posts. Photo is of the railway line that MGX use. Partly washed away and no way anybody could run a train over it. Have not heard any news to the market regarding this have we?




Appreciate your posts Johnno and that is correct it has not been announced.


----------



## Lucstar

So are you guys going to offload first thing tommorrow morning?


----------



## johnno261

I sold out half of my holding pre Christmas. Will be watching closely for a re entry Analyst but I do think  more downside to S/P at present. Have a feeling some selling off on MGX may happen tomorrow.
Have a feeling tomorrow maybe pretty wild!!


----------



## trader

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Chicken have you still got your feathers? What was the deal with BJ offloading 5,000,000 shares? I have not read the ann. as yet. More down side tomorrow expected if the djia falls which i think it will. Futures looking poor at present 16:00AEST. Nikkei has fallen 300+ points at present too.
> Did you get a chance to peruse at that photo at SHARESCENE under the MGX posts. Photo is of the railway line that MGX use. Partly washed away and no way anybody could run a train over it. Have not heard any news to the market regarding this have we?




I think it was only a transfer to a family trust.


----------



## chicken

trader said:
			
		

> I think it was only a transfer to a family trust.



Correct transfer...if you sell Johnno who cares...but you know that yourself...


----------



## TheAnalyst

Lucstar said:
			
		

> So are you guys going to offload first thing tommorrow morning?




No, as i think that they are low in comparison to where there price positive potential will head could be one day could be 3 mths and think the upside potential is greater than the downside...but still thk that there is a probability of them dropping but not a big one and if they do they wont stay down very long...

I am very diversified in my stocks at the moment and have only committed $1000 to the trade at  67 cents if they go below 55cents will probally get another $1000...so non of this inbetween price down and up ranges really gets me nerves upset.


----------



## chicken

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> No, as i think that they are low in comparison to where there price positive potential will head could be one day could be 3 mths and think the upside potential is greater than the downside...but still thk that there is a probability of them dropping but not a big one and if they do they wont stay down very long...
> 
> I am very diversified in my stocks at the moment and have only committed $1000 to the trade at  67 cents if they go below 55cents will probally get another $1000...so non of this inbetween price down and up ranges really gets me nerves upset.



Analyst and you hope everyone will sell you CHEAP shares wake up the Chinese are paying 75 cents in march....so where do you think the share price will go to.....funny that


----------



## TheAnalyst

chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst and you hope everyone will sell you CHEAP shares wake up the Chinese are paying 75 cents in march....so where do you think the share price will go to.....funny that




2 - 3 months is a long time in the stock market...and if i do..i do...if i dont..i dont


----------



## TheAnalyst

chicken said:
			
		

> Analyst and you hope everyone will sell you CHEAP shares wake up the Chinese are paying 75 cents in march....so where do you think the share price will go to.....funny that




Its good about the 75 cents and thats a bonus...tht means i have already made 12% but think i will make a lot more in 6 to 9 mths out of them...i hope it goes below 55 cents and it may..these stocks are known to behave like that...so its a good probability..but a greater probability to at least $1 this yr..so there are two probabilities and i am on both with $1000 and sticking to what my elders have preached in all universities...diversify...diversify and diversify...and know matter how i may feel or what i may think...always stick to it no matter what the odds are....anyway i bought RIOIZL instalments today..also have BGF....also have QMG...GTPIZK....MBLIWH....BSLWMM...looking at some ANZ & NAB installments..watching macmin silver..and you Chicken???????...i also have done a full analysis of Anzon oil.

I just bought 600 anzimp instalment warrants at $3.09...see chicken if i wasnt in the country yesterday at..Donald where Astron mining holds the biggest zircon mine in the world (ATR) i would have loaded up and finished my buying for the year yesterday...

...and i just bought 2000 senetas shares as well


----------



## johnno261

chicken said:
			
		

> Correct transfer...if you sell Johnno who cares...but you know that yourself...




Do you care Chicken if I BUY? I was the volume today!!!! Couldnt believe these stupid people were selling down to me at 64/64.5!!!!!! Bargain Buying!!


----------



## chicken

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Do you care Chicken if I BUY? I was the volume today!!!! Couldnt believe these stupid people were selling down to me at 64/64.5!!!!!! Bargain Buying!!



Well,I am glad you said that and not me...of course it is cheap...but I have only a certain amout of money for the market..which is more than most but I am sure you will do well out of it...Cheers Chicken


----------



## johnno261

If what the analysts are saying  about the new Iron Ore Contracts comes to fruition with an extra 20% in price, MGX will run to $1 in no time!!!!


----------



## chicken

johnno261 said:
			
		

> If what the analysts are saying  about the new Iron Ore Contracts comes to fruition with an extra 20% in price, MGX will run to $1 in no time!!!!



We have lift off....took long enough to realize this stock is valued at $1.25


----------



## TheAnalyst

chicken said:
			
		

> We have lift off....took long enough to realize this stock is valued at $1.25





Yer...i have noticed this too Chicken...my $1000 should be double in no time...


----------



## johnno261

Not saying too much, but the Iron Ore Price Negotiations are going to surprise many, hence such movement across all Iron Ore Players from RIO to MGX,AZR,MMX,BHP etc etc.

The real momentum hasn't commenced!!!


----------



## vicsta

Good night and good luck, even though you cant show the facts! if mgx goes up 4 cents today like stated in the other forum i'll also talk this stock up and join you guys.


----------



## chicken

vicsta said:
			
		

> Good night and good luck, even though you cant show the facts! if mgx goes up 4 cents today like stated in the other forum i'll also talk this stock up and join you guys.



If you buy or sell...that is entirely your business....after all we are just here to entertain you..mind you MGX have got production making $$$ and as Huntleys said are undervalued..their SP is at least $1.09...that is before the price of FE goes up.....so its cheap..now this is not for entertainment but facts..how you use this information its up to you..but one can make a few $$ from that..to get entertained


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> If you buy or sell...that is entirely your business....after all we are just here to entertain you..mind you MGX have got production making $$$ and as Huntleys said are undervalued..their SP is at least $1.09...that is before the price of FE goes up.....so its cheap..now this is not for entertainment but facts..how you use this information its up to you..but one can make a few $$ from that..to get entertained



well the market is starting to like this stock again...we should have an update by monday...went up another 2 cents..was up 3c...but 2 cents to 74cents..slowly but surely...


----------



## TheAnalyst

yer i am happy as well i have made almost $100 so far thats 10% and if it gets to 75 cents tht will be 12% roughly...how much percent have you made so far chicken??

great stock i was hoping it may have dropped a bit more as i wanted to get another $1000 on the dip but doesnt look like it now but still i am winning both ways at the moment.


----------



## crackaton

I am with chook and have bought in . This baby goin to at least 1$. Check out my other lucky picks, SBM EXT MRS.


----------



## TheAnalyst

crackaton said:
			
		

> I am with chook and have bought in . This baby goin to at least 1$. Check out my other lucky picks, SBM EXT MRS.




Looks like it at this stage..that means i will be able to have some spare cash to pick up an internet chick and take her on a date.....


----------



## crackaton

Bully for you analyst. I hope you enjoy yourself.


----------



## johnno261

MGX traded solid today with about 2 million in vol.  Sold down a cent in the last hour of trade but looking like its going to break out over the next few weeks and crack the big tonne! Selling depth has really dried up after 75cents, so I am assuming when it runs, it will run fast!!! Good luck to those that hold!!
Iron Ore Negotiations are going to fire up soon and we are seeing plenty of movement in the Iron Ore Juniors to suggest that negotiations are very bullish!!
You could use the old phrase,"Buy on rumour, Sell on fact", but had you done that last pre negotiations, you would have sold at 50 cents on the 21/02/05 which was the date Negotiations were released, and watched it nearly double within the next few weeks!!! No chance of doubling again, but plenty of upside S/P movement!!!!


----------



## el_ninj0

Interesting view from the fence i have to say. There has been alot of speculation about this stock, and alot of ramping...
My position is strong for this stock. Definetly on the verge of a breakout. Interesting next few days.
MGX is better placed than all the other juniour iron ore players:

* Already producing
* Low debt
* Strong position in Asia Iron(80%)
* Investment and backing by large financial institutions.

Enough said.

It has suffered from extreme manipulation unfortunately, and should have already been above $1 long ago.


----------



## trader

Looks like quarterly not well received, maybe won't reach that $1.00 price in the short term.


----------



## Lucstar

Hmm....maybe the Analyst can find an opportunity for score another $1000 worth of undervalued MGX shares. In the end, the fundamentals for this guys is definately one worth keeping an eye out for


----------



## TjamesX

Exited today for a loss

I'm not in for the long haul with this one. I know they flagged a need to increase  mine production to keep up total ORE production but I didn't like the figures in todays ann. They increased mine production by about 25% in the Dec quarter and only got half the ore production compared to september quarter.

Assuming they are mining the best part of the ore body at tallering, this mine is meant to be going for another 6 years..... 

I heavily qualify this by the fact I have done very little research on MGX, but I would expect further profit downgrades... too much risk on the table for me.


----------



## chicken

TjamesX said:
			
		

> Exited today for a loss
> 
> I'm not in for the long haul with this one. I know they flagged a need to increase  mine production to keep up total ORE production but I didn't like the figures in todays ann. They increased mine production by about 25% in the Dec quarter and only got half the ore production compared to september quarter.
> 
> Assuming they are mining the best part of the ore body at tallering, this mine is meant to be going for another 6 years.....
> 
> I heavily qualify this by the fact I have done very little research on MGX, but I would expect further profit downgrades... too much risk on the table for me.



who cares if you buy or sell...but you have not researched the company to make statements as you have...the company has 1 billion tones of magnetic hematic ore to be mined at Mt Gibson...into 250mt of Iron Pellets....which is worth many billions of $$$ so as I said before you sell you buy..I dont care  ...right.....but the Chinese you will see will buy at 75c...why...because the pellets are used to enhance their steel for export quality....do your own research....And the Chinese need them...as they require them for as I stated before...have you got the story now....


----------



## trader

chicken said:
			
		

> who cares if you buy or sell...but you have not researched the company to make statements as you have...the company has 1 billion tones of magnetic hematic ore to be mined at Mt Gibson...into 250mt of Iron Pellets....which is worth many billions of $$$ so as I said before you sell you buy..I dont care  ...right.....but the Chinese you will see will buy at 75c...why...because the pellets are used to enhance their steel for export quality....do your own research....And the Chinese need them...as they require them for as I stated before...have you got the story now....




I think chicken is having a bad day MGX down, MAP down, SBM no ann and maybe he even owns some CDO shares. What a day, and especially it being a Friday.


----------



## chicken

trader said:
			
		

> I think chicken is having a bad day MGX down, MAP down, SBM no ann and maybe he even owns some CDO shares. What a day, and especially it being a Friday.



No but my BMX..and AGS are doing nicely..as soon as we know with SBM what gives you may find it will take off like a rocket..as fare as MGX is concerned I am not worried..just drongos who post and then say they did not do any research...I know what I have invested my money in..that is the difference...you were the one who said something about ZFX once now how right was I..and I will be proven right again you will see..anyway who cares what people sell or buy I just care that I have producers with good cash flow..MGX falls into this categry...SBM,BMX,MAP,all have good cashflow....  .


----------



## trader

chicken said:
			
		

> No but my BMX..and AGS are doing nicely..as soon as we know with SBM what gives you may find it will take off like a rocket..as fare as MGX is concerned I am not worried..just drongos who post and then say they did not do any research...I know what I have invested my money in..that is the difference...you were the one who said something about ZFX once now how right was I..and I will be proven right again you will see..anyway who cares what people sell or buy I just care that I have producers with good cash flow..MGX falls into this categry...SBM,BMX,MAP,all have good cashflow....  .




Well chicken I'm also waiting for that SBM ann , and I agree with you they
will take off , even though I was a bit worried this morning . Good luck with
the rest .


----------



## johnno261

Todays announcement was what the market already knew about pre Christmas. No reason for a sell off today. Management have crap PR skills.How lame and un informed was the report!! I hold only because of what the future holds for this stock and my re entry point of 64/64.5 looks good!!! Dont think MGX will reach that again.Appears to have found support around 70 cents and may bounce back Monday!!


----------



## 123enen

chicken said:
			
		

> the company has 1 billion tones of magnetic hematic ore to be mined at Mt Gibson...into 250mt of Iron Pellets....which is worth many billions of $$$ .....but the Chinese you will see will buy at 75c...why...because the pellets are used to enhance their steel for export quality....do your own research....And the Chinese need them...as they require them for as I stated before...have you got the story now....





What am I missing?
One billion tonnes of magnetic hematic ore ( at Extension hill?) worth billions of $$$. So why is there that much trouble with the bankable feasibility study. They will not call the study final (because they are trying to reduce potential start up costs? )and have asked other companies to quote on equipment. 
If I had a mine worth billions of $$$ why would I quibble about maybe 70 to 100 million in extra costs?
Is it possible that they are not happy with the study results so far because the value of the mine is not so great after all?


Also what is in it for Shougang? Are they going to get a discount rate for their ore? Is that why they are interested? At a discount rate is the mine worth it?
I keep reading about negotiations between MGX and Shougang but nowhere does it mention if there is an agreed rate for the ore as part of the negotiation. 

Negotiations keep dragging on, Feasibility study keeps dragging on. WHY?


----------



## markrmau

From a shaw report which was sent to me by someone who is actually a client.

"Mt Gibson has established a proven resource of over 200Mt of magnetite at Extension Hill. The potential resource within the
Mt Gibson range is in excess of 1Bt. MGX holds a 50% interest in the magnetite deposits, with the balance under option until
Dec 2005 at a price of $17.5m. However, as at 29 September 2004, the company planned to effectively exchange its interest in
the Mt Gibson deposits for a 30% shareholding in Hong Kong-based Asia Iron Holdings Limited, subject to shareholder
approval"

So, only 200Mt is proven. I saw no announcements regarding the 50% option, so I believe MGX only owns 100Mt of proven magnetite resourses.


----------



## 123enen

markrmau said:
			
		

> From a shaw report which was sent to me by someone who is actually a client.



There is a very comprehensive Shaw report ( March 2005) on the MGX website ( see broker reports)


----------



## johnno261

MGX may bounce back hard on Monday. Just been perusing at BHP signing statement re Coal Contracts. They wer'e surprised that coal contracts only dropped a mere 8%. As for Iron Ore they stated that Iron Ore Negotiations looked extremely Bullish. The Outcome will be pleasing!!!
MGX will get a re rating over the next few weeks based on the new Iron Prices. If the Big Boys,BHP,RIO,CVRD get a 20% increase as speculated, not only will RIO & BHP go nuts, but MGX will go banana's!! Take Note that  from a very reliable source , I was told that CVRD has put forth to the Negotiating table , a 40% Increase based on the appreciation of their currency!!
Those that sold MGX today have sold at their loss!!
In all honesty,I was dissappointed to see it get sold off today on old news!!!!
The market knew about this a month ago!!


----------



## johnno261

Well it appears some S/P movement is iminent. Last week "HUNTLEYS" had a strong buy reccommendation on MGX and today INTERSUISSE had a StrongBuy reccommendation on MGX based on an extremely Bullish commodities outlook with plenty of upside on MGX due to BFS progressing very well,Ore Price Increase, and extremely strong cashflow in the near future!!


----------



## Kipp

Anyone know what their QTRly profit for DEC was given their predicted ore production of 2.1 Million tonnes to June 06?  Are they still on track for 37 million profit?  (Given current Ore Prices, not Johnno's inflated 20% figures)
Ta.


----------



## TheAnalyst

The strong buy come on the back of mgx about to increase their debt to equity ratio by borrowing and the tax deduction on the cost of borrowings will alone increase net profit and increase share price guaranteed a very well known accounting principle in regards to evaluating business performance thats why they are so confident.

Anyone know how much they plan on borrowing??


----------



## chicken

Credit swuisse has now a big BUY order on these shares...should see 80cents by friday again......


----------



## TheAnalyst

chicken said:
			
		

> Credit swuisse has now a big BUY order on these shares...should see 80cents by friday again......




Can you post a copy of the article or a web address?


----------



## TheAnalyst

Today i finally got time and finished reading the Shaw report and checked all the figures and caught up on a few things and the report seems ok and rather conservative...if all keeps going to plan then this thing is huge and if mgx continue on with exploration and diversity in resources with all this cashflow then they will just keep growing.


----------



## TheAnalyst

The forecasted ore sales was originaly 1.9 mt on the shaw valuation MGX stated that they will reach 2.1mt sales of ore to 30 JUne 2006 thats still an 11% increase on the shaw analysis and its based on a $55.5 US a ton and that doesnt include the 20% iron ore increase.

I think the estimated cost to build the sludge pipe is $100mil and say the interest bill is $8,500,000 per year and depreciation of 20%p.a being $20,000,000 and a few extras on to of say $2,000.000 will give a estimate deduction for tax of $8,500,000+$20,000,000+$2,000,000=$30,500,000 X 30%=$9,150,000. This means that if the estimated net earnings for mgx is $35,000,000 and an increase in steel prices of 20% therefore $35,000,000 X 20% = $7,000,000 and an estimated tax expense of 30% = $2,100,000 adding an increase of $4,900,000 to a profit of $35,000,000= $ $39,900,000 and add the decrease in tax back from borrowing and depreciation and other establishment costs $39,900,000+ $9,150,000=$49,050,000 net profit on these assumptions and once the sludge pipe is built and operational.

This does not include any extra expenses to the iron ore as i donot have access to the fixed and variable costs of producing the plant or any of the semi-variable costs either. These are estimates only if any one has any better cost estimates let me know.


----------



## TheAnalyst

Its looking a bit flat and slow lately and i think there's better places to park $1000 at the moment actually over $1000 now as i sold should have dumped it in AEX.


----------



## johnno261

Yes agree totally Analyst. S/P looking weak with a retrace back to mid 60's. More dissappointing news i fear will hit the market for their half yearly!! They have come out and told us, stripping problems.How much more upfront can one be?


----------



## TheAnalyst

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Yes agree totally Analyst. S/P looking weak with a retrace back to mid 60's. More dissappointing news i fear will hit the market for their half yearly!! They have come out and told us, stripping problems.How much more upfront can one be?




Yer, its taking its time but like i have always said the upside seems great to me but there are better plays in the market at the moment but you sometimes have to determine what your time frame is...and if say you are loaded with money going and putting a bit here and a bit there and waiting for em to go off in this market is simple.

Dont forget today was a bad day after a bad night on wall street and to make it worse today is Friday so you are locked in to trades until Monday.....i actually bought up on stocks today and have noticed a triangle formation on MGX but there may only be a few cents in it.


----------



## TheAnalyst

Luxury life of mining.com flash in the pan

September 27, 2007

The house is ring-fenced from creditors.

Stephen Minor CEO, a wunderkind of the mining craze, is offering $350,000 to settle debts of $21 million.

Steve Minor 355 Ferrari was not yet two years old when it was repossessed. The $350,000 motor was loaded on a truck, never again to be seen at his Brighton house.

The luxurious house is a different story. It is carefully ring-fenced from the creditors Minor, 39, is due to face on Tuesday, so the wunderkind of the mining boom can use it during frequent visits from Bia Ing Province, where he now works as a sales manager.

It was bought in 2005 by Pure Magnetite Capital Investments with a $2.49 million interest-free personal loan to Minor from two Chinese bankers. They were anxious to protect their investment in Minor's high-tech flash in the pan mine, Davnet, and wanted to stop him depressing its shares by selling.

Minor sold the shares anyway, pumping the proceeds into new money-losing mining ventures until, with creditors circling, he sold Pure Magnetite Capital Investments to Jame Oiler, a former business associate. The price Oiler paid last November for Minors's two shares, and effectively the transfer of the $2.5 million house in Brighton, was $2.

And while the Chinese are still owed their money, Minor has gifted $1.24 million to Chris Ironman, a former policeman whom Minor describes as a lifelong friend, so he could buy a boat, and another $50,000 in cash and $100,000 in jewellery to another friend, Lisa Diamonds.

Minor returns on Tuesday for a creditors meeting adjourned by the federal bankruptcy watchdog, Insolvency and Trustee Service Australia.

WELLEMPTY Financiers, unhappy about his proposal under Part X of the Bankruptcy Act to pay $350,000 in settlement of debts of $21.45 million, told the creditors and the controlling trustee, Joseph Silverstein, of Herma & Magna Corporate Services, to think again about Minor's financial affairs.

Several issues annoy WELLEMPTY, as a statement from the inspector general of bankruptcy, Terry Gallagher, makes clear. "WELLEMPTY's report focuses on Mr Minors's projected income, his prior interest in luxury motor vehicles, a number of large gifts, property settlements prior to the Part X composition offer, property still controlled by family trusts, and the legitimacy of the related-party creditors."
Stephen Minor is due to face creditors on Tuesday. When Davnet went public, Minor and his wife ILikaring moved into a $2.5 million house in Hawthorn with garage space for the family Mercedes, her Porsche and his Ferrari.

Minors's statement of affairs show his debts include $8.66 million to various Chinese interests, $7.85 million to three Minors family trusts for loans, and $5 million to the Tax Office.

In his report to creditors, Silverstein says he has seen no evidence Minor transferred property or made gifts in anticipation of insolvency.

Parts of the report are contradicted in notices to the Australian Stock Exchange by companies with which Minor is or was associated, but neither man would speak to The Age about it. Silverstein has not returned calls and Minor slammed down the phone after warning The Age to check with lawyers before publishing, and demanding to know if we knew the difference between a private entity and a corporate entity. It was a direct reference to the seven trusts where homes and other assets have been parked during Minor's remarkable rise to a life of fast cars and big houses.

Minor holds arts and law degrees and a diploma in information technology. During the internet craze he came up with a novel scheme to put office towers online using laser technology instead of more costly fibre optic cables.

With $130,000 borrowed from his father, Dignot, he set up Davnet in 1996 and went public in December 1998. Davnet's shares reached $6 in April 2000, making Minor worth $350 million, but a month later they began sliding and his net worth was down to $198 million.

When Davnet went public, Minor and his wife ILikaring moved into a $2.5 million house in Hawthorn, with garage space for the family Mercedes, her Porsche and his Ferrari. However, by mid-2006 Minor's marriage had crumbled, and he made plans to move.

Silverstein's report shows that under a Family Court order in June 2001, Minor paid off the Hawthorn house and transferred it, along with the Mercedes, the Porsche, a swag of shares and $300,000 to ILikaring.

But while the trustee company controlling the Ramsay Street house was sold for $2, the $2.49 million personal loan from Chinese company  TinTan remains unpaid. The Silverstein report says the company, connected with investment banker Hans Ofa Daguld, made the loan so Minor could buy the house without liquidating Davnet shares when they were freed from escrow in December 2000.

Daguld and associate Tailin Walls, both Davnet investors and directors, need not have bothered. Minor began tipping his 70 million shares on to a falling market, raising over $16 million.

By July 2001 he had turned to a new venture, the Australian and Asian development of DotWAP, a US-based business that could provide data communications to remote computer terminals and mobile phones. According to the Silverstein report Clever Country Minerals, trustees of the Minor family trust, dissipated its shareholding in Davnet to the tune of $8 million because it bought Dotsteel shares from Davnet employees when Minor, off his own bat, sought to correct a possible breach in prospectus requirements by Dotsteel USA.

The Dotsteel shares, now worth nothing, are held in the Bullion trust, which is administered by Pure Magnetite Capital Investments, the company Minor sold to Oiler for $2.

Five of Minor's seven trusts still exist but, according to the Silverstein report, they are discretionary trusts and Minor has no direct interest. Four have deficiencies totalling more than $3 million.

There is no financial statement on the fifth, called the Boxumite Trust in the Silverstein paper. However, reports to the stock exchange show that its trustee company, Bay Mines Holdings, holds 200 million shares in CBD Energy, a penny dreadful promoting energy-saving installations in Hong Kong. It was founded as CBD Online by Minors's father to develop and operate mines for city buildings. He retired, and was replaced in the boardroom by his son, who resigned in June this year.

After Stephen resigned from the board on June 30, the company reported that Bay Mining Holdings would subscribe a further $550,000 for shares, giving Minor's related interests 56.32 per cent of the votes.

When Silverstein signed his report on August 25, Minors family's interest amounted to $4.25 million.

However, the Silverstein report seeks to make a case for accepting Minor's $350,000 settlement offer by warning creditors the most they could expect from his $113,000-a-year job would be $66,000 spread over a three-year bankruptcy.


----------



## markrmau

markrmau said:
			
		

> From a shaw report which was sent to me by someone who is actually a client.
> 
> "Mt Gibson has established a proven resource of over 200Mt of magnetite at Extension Hill. The potential resource within the
> Mt Gibson range is in excess of 1Bt. MGX holds a 50% interest in the magnetite deposits, with the balance under option until
> Dec 2005 at a price of $17.5m. However, as at 29 September 2004, the company planned to effectively exchange its interest in
> the Mt Gibson deposits for a 30% shareholding in Hong Kong-based Asia Iron Holdings Limited, subject to shareholder
> approval"





Mea culpa.

On re-reading, this quote is not Shaw's opinion, but from an old huntley's report which is automatically inserted into the shaw report. This oviously hasn't been updated.

Proven resources of magnetite are now 260MT as I understand it. 1BT of "potential" resourses. In my mind, it is moving from 'undervalued' to 'massively undervalued'.


----------



## johnno261

Did anybody read the Australian today regarding Mr.Lee and his purchase into MGX? Very interesting article.The mans a bit of a shifty astute sharetrader from Asia and has purchased a decent slab of Gibbos. He is apparently a very successful trader and much to delight of the rest of us, he's put money into a share that will create wealth for many based on sound fundementals and a strong Chinese demand!!

Volumes today on Gibbos up, and I saw 4 big parcels of 100,000 units go thru over a 5 minute period. 100,000@.070/100,000@0.70/100,000@0.705/100,000@0.71. 

I think the next 12 months will be unlike the past 12 months and some big action will take place with Mount Gibson!!!!
Good Luck to all that hold.


----------



## Porper

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Did anybody read the Australian today regarding Mr.Lee and his purchase into MGX? Very interesting article.The mans a bit of a shifty astute sharetrader from Asia and has purchased a decent slab of Gibbos. He is apparently a very successful trader and much to delight of the rest of us, he's put money into a share that will create wealth for many based on sound fundementals and a strong Chinese demand!!
> 
> Volumes today on Gibbos up, and I saw 4 big parcels of 100,000 units go thru over a 5 minute period. 100,000@.070/100,000@0.70/100,000@0.705/100,000@0.71.
> 
> I think the next 12 months will be unlike the past 12 months and some big action will take place with Mount Gibson!!!!
> Good Luck to all that hold.




Johnno,

You change your mind more than I change my undies.

First it was going to go up, then a few days ago you said down to the sixties, today you are bullish again 

So are you bullish, negative or undecided 

I bought on Friday and am very happy with my first CFD purchase.

Maybe next week I can short it


----------



## johnno261

Always have been bullish on MGX but never more than now!


----------



## el_ninj0

Good news on Mr Lee getting in on this aswell.
Should bring a bit of interest from other big investors, hopefully....
But hey, its MGX, who knows what the hell is going to happen.
This is probably the most unpredictable share ive ever traded to be honest.


----------



## zzkazu

From a technical analysis point of view things are looking bearish.
I'm looking for a entry below 0.65;  I picked up 0.59 previoulsy.

zzkazu


----------



## Porper

zzkazu said:
			
		

> From a technical analysis point of view things are looking bearish.
> I'm looking for a entry below 0.65;  I picked up 0.59 previoulsy.
> 
> zzkazu




Interesting view zzkazu, what are your technical reasons behind your thoughts ?

I see it as the start of wave 3 as in the attached chart with a target price of 0.87.

Could be the start of wave 3 in the opposite direction though, if so I will be stopped out shortly.


----------



## johnno261

Yesterday's posts were both interesting.ZZKAZU can you please give reason as to why technically MGX looks bearish.If chart related,back it up with a chart so we can peruse @ it.Thanks
PORPER, maybe I am looking at MGX more on the same level as you are.  80 & 87 cents being a significant resistance level and the next target.
Cheers
Johnno


----------



## el_ninj0

Poor performance today. Anyone have ideas on why?
The latest announcement was just a courtesy, so there is no reason for it to affect the sp.
Any news coverage that im not seeing perhaps?


----------



## TjamesX

There has been a hard sell off of miners in the last week

This was posted in another thread, Chinese are looking to restrict iron ore increases to 10%;

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=32621&postcount=11


----------



## zzkazu

I based my conclusions on a few charts that I use frequently.  The first one I inverted the X axis to highlight, it looks like an ascending triangle- bullish.  Remember its inverted therefore the opposite applies. Also the MMA doesn't look too good; bottom scale not inverted here.

Inverted 

The second I looked at rate of change ADX and confirm the previous bullish behavior has slowed with a -DI crossover.

ADX 

I use P&F to confirm support and resistance and confirm a resistance line at 0.65.  Obviously there are others


Thats what works for me...  I dont claim it will for anyone else..

PF

 :goodnight 
zzkazu


----------



## johnno261

Purchased a copy of the March issue of "Smart Investor" magazine. Great little write up on MGX. Good luck to those that hold as it appears we are in for some movement shortly.
Cheers to those whom hold!!!!!!


----------



## laurie

Hot news to-night

MGX is earning a 60% interest in a private company Poondano Exploration Pty Ltd which is exploring for Pisolite and Basement hosted Iron Ore in the Pilbara of W.A. 85km north of Newman

cheers laurie


----------



## johnno261

Laurie did you read my post on H/C?
Great news regarding the JV 60% interest in Poondano Exploration. It appears that the intersected Ore is similiar in formation to that of Rio's West Angelas and Marandoo deposits. Just to top it all off, this ore intersection is 1km from The Great Western Highway in the Pilbara region.
MGX the next blue chip stock?


----------



## laurie

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Laurie did you read my post on H/C?




No mate but I will, amazing when is good news not good news if this does not move the sp north then the market can go... :swear: 

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

laurie said:
			
		

> No mate but I will, amazing when is good news not good news if this does not move the sp north then the market can go... :swear:
> 
> cheers laurie



Laurie, love your post..this news is very welcome and should see huge buying in this stock...most undervalued SP on the ASX...I am holding a swag of them and have always said they will go higher. Well...it looks as if the train is ready to leave the station...real fast...as this news was after hours tomorrow looks as if it will take off...great.


----------



## laurie

Chicken
Goto the ASX site the full story is there I think it was released 7:33pm

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

> Company Announcements
> Australian Stock Exchange Limited
> Level 10, 20 Bond Street
> SYDNEY NSW 2000
> Director
> Mr Guoping Liu, the Vice President of China Railways Materials and Supply Corporation, is no
> longer a director of Mount Gibson Iron Limited.
> Yours sincerely,
> MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED
> Angela Dent
> Company Secretary
> Enquiries: Mr Luke Tonkin or Mr Alan Rule
> Managing Director Finance Director
> Telephone: 61 8 9426-7500
> Email: admin@mtgibsoniron.com.au




cheers laurie


----------



## carpets

pre open sp down a little today! more good news?


----------



## laurie

carpets said:
			
		

> pre open sp down a little today! more good news?




Yeh it needs to find Uranium not much just a handfull!  

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

laurie said:
			
		

> Yeh it needs to find Uranium not much just a handfull!
> 
> cheers laurie



Well, read all about it MGX have done the feasability study and are presenting it to their partners next week...also MGX gives a presentation at the iron ore meeting in Perth..so it looks all go at the company....the pallet factory in China seems to be approved..so this stock is starting to wake from its slumber...all we need an increase of 10% to 20% in price of iron ore and it will really be alive...someone is trying to cap the price..a broker I would say..clever dud....


----------



## robertsharron

may I ask .. what gives you the impression someone is capping the price?


----------



## zzkazu

Has touched .65 as expected....


zzkazu


----------



## chicken

robertsharron said:
			
		

> may I ask .. what gives you the impression someone is capping the price?



You dont have to be a geek to see that...50000 shares went on the cheap..why to trigger stop losses...today someone manipulated this stock like hell...even a blind man could have seen that..but the volume picked up and will increase so if anyone wants to sell shares at 65cents..I AM BUYING...but whoever it was picked up as well.....the ones who had stop losses on their shares lost out as this stock will go a lot higher yet..someone wants to pickup as much stock at cheap prices as he can..I see that and I am sure others can as well


----------



## shy

zzkazu said:
			
		

> Has touched .65 as expected....
> 
> 
> zzkazu





Why??? This is not the type of announcements that I would expect to get the sp down. 

Shy


----------



## chicken

shy said:
			
		

> Why??? This is not the type of announcements that I would expect to get the sp down.
> 
> Shy



IT WAS MANIPULATED BY SOME PEOPLE WHO HAD SHORTS...triggering stop losses...I call that dirty dealings..simple....


----------



## shy

I bought this morning @0.685 thinking it can only go up. 

I still don’t understand why somebody would want to keep the price down by manipulating the market. Is it pure evil or are we missing something?  :2evil: 

BTW
All the reviews that I read about MGX so far had a buy recommendation. Does not make sense to me that there are so many sellers out there and for this price. Don’t they read the announcements and the reviews? There is no doubt even among the experts that MGX is worth more then 67c.  

Shy


----------



## laurie

Gutless ASX the only thing they're good for is handing out speeding tickets when sp goes up. Where are they when this is happening?   

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

shy said:
			
		

> I bought this morning @0.685 thinking it can only go up.
> 
> I still don’t understand why somebody would want to keep the price down by manipulating the market. Is it pure evil or are we missing something?  :2evil:
> 
> BTW
> All the reviews that I read about MGX so far had a buy recommendation. Does not make sense to me that there are so many sellers out there and for this price. Don’t they read the announcements and the reviews? There is no doubt even among the experts that MGX is worth more then 67c.
> 
> Shy



Shy, I agree..the person who manipulates also knows its worth more and just wait it will go a lot higher as the manipulator is also buying..he sells cheap on one side as a sellers and buys on the buyers side.as  well...I know its not legal..but it is done every day in the world..believe it.....and no one gets prosecuted...in this perfect world....MGX is starting to pick up volume on the buy and sales and the manipulator will just be one of the crowd.. go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and you will get a lot of your answers there.....they are the 4th largest producer of iron ore and their assets are now even better since the Pilbara find....I own over 200k shares and I made my research..good stock this and Shougan is buying 20million shares at 75cents in MARCH.....2006....also MGX gives a presentation at the iron conference in Perth I think the dates were 23rd-24th February..more news should be out in days......


----------



## johnno261

I am slightly dissappointed to read new just out on Google News that Iron Ore Price Negotiations are possibly not going to conclude til past the 1st of April. BHP stated that talks will run past 1st Of April. I think the S/P appears weak at present which is what the market thinks too.
I along with many others were hoping for a quick movement with news on the iron ore price increase, but now it appears money is parked on a stock that may not really move for another 2months!! Hope I'm wrong
Read the article at Google, news section, type in Iron Ore Negotiations and you will see BHP's heading.


----------



## Kipp

chicken said:
			
		

> Shy, I agree..the person who manipulates also knows its worth more and just wait it will go a lot higher as the manipulator is also buying..he sells cheap on one side as a sellers and buys on the buyers side.as  well...I know its not legal..




Hey Chicken, with regards to manipulation (this is not so much an MGX post) why do people sell stock at rediculously low levels (i.e. well below what the stock is currently trading).
For example today, SKW Skywest, 332000 shares were sold off at 16c.  When the previous close 20c.  So the current price sits at 16, bu the next sell order is still at 20c.  Similarly, at MAH the price crashed right down to 62c from 69c before swiftly recovering to 69c (I was pissed off that I didn't have any spare cash to sink into more shares during its momentary slip downhill)

All I'm saying is, if you wanted to manipulate, wouldn't you try and do it over a series of days rather than in a mad rush?  And wouldn't you still try and get the best price for them (19c to 18c in the case of SKW) though I realise this depends a bit on the market depth.

As for MGX, do you think the currently sluggish SP is due to all of the delays in their production?  The rail wagons, the prod STILL at 2.1 Mta after all of the promises to be at 3Mta, the delays in the feasibility study (though I suppose the final results of that were good) and now the delays in ore price.... there is just a continual string of disheartening press releases from the most highly ramped company in the forums (compared to say BMX).


----------



## robertsharron

Kipp said:
			
		

> Hey Chicken, with regards to manipulation (this is not so much an MGX post) why do people sell stock at rediculously low levels (i.e. well below what the stock is currently trading).
> For example today, SKW Skywest, 332000 shares were sold off at 16c.  When the previous close 20c.  So the current price sits at 16, bu the next sell order is still at 20c.  Similarly, at MAH the price crashed right down to 62c from 69c before swiftly recovering to 69c (I was pissed off that I didn't have any spare cash to sink into more shares during its momentary slip downhill)
> 
> All I'm saying is, if you wanted to manipulate, wouldn't you try and do it over a series of days rather than in a mad rush?  And wouldn't you still try and get the best price for them (19c to 18c in the case of SKW) though I realise this depends a bit on the market depth.
> 
> As for MGX, do you think the currently sluggish SP is due to all of the delays in their production?  The rail wagons, the prod STILL at 2.1 Mta after all of the promises to be at 3Mta, the delays in the feasibility study (though I suppose the final results of that were good) and now the delays in ore price.... there is just a continual string of disheartening press releases from the most highly ramped company in the forums (compared to say BMX).




As much this company has a LOT going for it... in the short term reading between lines (including presentation at conf this morning) :

o/p poss 2.0-2.1???, rail wagons delivery NOT confirmed for April as comitted, Iron ore neg's temp stalled, magnetitie poss on hold even if shougang commit (due to costs - which are more like $1bill once cap costs etc added in) plus continued disappointment from insto's holding placement @85c.. and no concrete word on any corporate action crystallisng..
short term.. little excitement .. longr term wrthy.


----------



## chicken

robertsharron said:
			
		

> As much this company has a LOT going for it... in the short term reading between lines (including presentation at conf this morning) :
> 
> o/p poss 2.0-2.1???, rail wagons delivery NOT confirmed for April as comitted, Iron ore neg's temp stalled, magnetitie poss on hold even if shougang commit (due to costs - which are more like $1bill once cap costs etc added in) plus continued disappointment from insto's holding placement @85c.. and no concrete word on any corporate action crystallisng..
> short term.. little excitement .. longr term wrthy.



Nothing like you downrampers than to twist the truth to suit yourself....well all I can say there are some nasty people around and they would sell their mother for a $$$ but I am glad I dont belong to this group...I hold MGX and you will see it will get better from here..and I hope these nasty people have a short shelf life that is all I can say....as far as MGX they have a future read their presentation and you will see what it is all about...


----------



## johnno261

chicken said:
			
		

> Nothing like you downrampers than to twist the truth to suit yourself....well all I can say there are some nasty people around and they would sell their mother for a $$$ but I am glad I dont belong to this group...I hold MGX and you will see it will get better from here..and I hope these nasty people have a short shelf life that is all I can say....as far as MGX they have a future read their presentation and you will see what it is all about...




Chicken, you need to seperate your Emotional ties with your trading on MGX. Geez emotionally we all like MGX, but hey you got bring your thinking into a pattern of logic and realise that the runs are not on the board for MGX due to a lack of punctual deliveries.The  deal with Shougang is not clear cut and is definately a worry to the market, hence the poor performance of the S/P.
The above people that have posted the above during today are in fact telling the truth.There is a difference between telling the truth and Downramping.
Dont fall in love with a stock!!!!


----------



## Kipp

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Dont fall in love with a stock!!!!




Johno, don't want to sound antagonistic but you have done more than your fair share of MGX ramping (even going as far to start your own thread "Stocks with Low P.Es featuring MGX) 

But no worries chicken- you're still pretty good at picking 'em: MAP, SBM, etc... you and Richkid make for good ASF reading.


----------



## laurie

> China fails to agree on iron ore price with foreign miners
> China, one of the world's top consumers and makers of steel, has failed to reach an agreement on iron ore prices with major overseas mining groups, state media says.
> 
> Last year, Chinese companies along with their overseas peers were forced to accept a price rise of 71.5 per cent and they have made clear that far from agreeing to any similar increase for this year they want at least no change and preferably a reduction.
> 
> Shanghai Baosteel, the nation's largest steel maker, has had unsuccessful meetings with companies including Australia's BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, as well as Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, the China Daily reports.
> 
> The negotiations have stalled because China and the companies insist on vastly different prices amid contrary views on the short-term outlook of the market, the newspaper says.
> 
> "Miners insisted on raising prices further while we insisted on cutting them," the newspaper cited a Baosteel official as saying.
> 
> "We didn't get any chance to (go over) detailed figures because both parties are expecting opposite price directions."
> 
> The Chinese side said a price increase was not justified, partly because domestic steel manufacturers were in oversupply.
> 
> Baosteel is the only representative of Chinese enterprises in talks with the miners this year.
> 
> The prices Baosteel agrees upon will be accepted by all domestic mills and iron ore traders.
> 
> All the other steel makers and iron ore trading companies have been banned from holding individual iron ore price negotiations for 2006 term contracts with international miners.
> 
> Long-term iron ore prices between major suppliers and buyers are generally settled before April, when deliveries for those contracts are scheduled to begin, the China Daily reports.
> 
> If an agreement cannot be reached before April 1, the two sides could trade iron ore at last year's prices, the newspaper says.
> 
> China's price negotiations are important in setting prices around the world, with other companies such as Japan Nippon Steel awaiting the outcome of Baosteel's contracts before finalising its own, the China Daily said.
> 
> - AFP




cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

Kipp said:
			
		

> Johno, don't want to sound antagonistic but you have done more than your fair share of MGX ramping (even going as far to start your own thread "Stocks with Low P.Es featuring MGX)
> 
> But no worries chicken- you're still pretty good at picking 'em: MAP, SBM, etc... you and Richkid make for good ASF reading.



Well, Kipp I still feel MGX will show us the money..we will see next week when the Company presents to their partners the skem on production etc..CHINA will not wait they need Steel now and the $700 million is chickenfeed to Shougan...they are wanting supply and MGX mine life up to 30-years looks an attractive proposition..the company has proved to the Aussie downrampers that they have been wrong all along..problem these downraqmpers cant see further than their nose..do any one think China will wait..if so they should take a trip to China and maybe it will open their eyes..I say its a go and their find in the Pilbara has made the stock even more attractive..I am glad none of the downrampers have anything to do with the company as we would be still in the stoneage....MGX gave a brilliant presentation of events and it is a pity that a lot of companies have not the forsight as MGX showed....I am a holder of MGX and can wait..as I have all the time in the world..see I am retired and see the situation differently than most.....by the way KIPP...have a look at BMX another one of my picks..watch the downrampers  jumping on LOLOLOLO


----------



## markrmau

Citigroup:

"Global Iron Ore Market

”  AJM's 9th Annual Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference began in Perth last week just as Shanghai Baosteel, China's biggest steel producer, bailed out of its third round of iron ore contract price negotiations.

”  Baosteel claims that steel markets in 2006 cannot support a further lift in prices. However, we see continued tightness in iron ore's seaborne trade, with China controlling almost half of it. In 2006, China will import 320Mt of ore, up 16% y-o-y. 

”  We maintain our contract price forecast of a 20% lift in JFY2006-07 (to US96 ¢/dltu for lump, US75 ¢/dltu for fines), declining 10% in JFY2007-08.


----------



## stockGURU

More recent news on the Iron Ore price:



> Iron ore price increases could be 20%
> 
> Purchasing March 1, 2006
> 
> Tough negotiations over prices have stalled between the world's biggest steelmakers in China and the suppliers of a key raw material, iron ore. Depending on the analyst, the projected price increase for fiscal 2006, starting in April, ranges from 12-20%. Last year, the miners got 71.5% increases.
> 
> World prices of iron ore may rise as much as 20% this year as global supplies continue to lag demand led by China, according to Citigroup analyst Alan Heap. "It seems to us a 20% increase is absolutely achievable," Heap says at an Australian Journal of Mining conference in Perth, Australia reported by Bloomberg News Service. "It would be quite possible for (the miners) to say to the Chinese, we would deliver iron ore to you at the same prices you got in 2005 given that freight rates have come down by half." This fiscal year, world steelmakers pay $38 -$58/metric ton for iron ore, depending on type and including freight costs, up from $23-$38 in 2004. Iron ore prices are expected to rise by about 12% as mine supply struggles to keep up with demand from Chinese steelmakers, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics says in its first quarter report. Meanwhile, Algoma Steel in Canada expects a price increase on iron ore in 2006 and is currently making payments to its ore supplier based on their estimate of an increase of 15%. But, the Chinese steel industry has failed to reach an agreement on iron ore prices with major overseas mining groups. Chinese imports of iron ore will rise by 16% this year to 320 million metric tons, a slower pace of increase than previous years, Heap forecasts. That’s why the Chinese are playing hardball over prices. This week, negotiations stalled because domestic steelmakers and foreign miners insist on vastly different prices amid contrary views on the short-term outlook of the market, reports the China Daily newspaper. China’s largest steelmaker, Shanghai-based Baosteel, representing all Chinese steel firms, have had unsuccessful meetings with companies including Australia's BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group and Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce. The Chinese media says these mills have made clear that far from agreeing to any similar increase for this year, they want at least no change and preferably a reduction. Meanwhile, seeking to support the iron-mining industry, Sweden’s LKAB says the world market for iron ore will continue to face shortages in 2006. The firm forecasts global steel demand will rise by 4% or 5%, requiring more ore.
> 
> "*Demand for its iron ore and pellet products continues to exceed production capacity," a company statement says, "and worldwide iron ore exporters are producing at the limit of their capabilities.*"




http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6311983.html?industryid=2151


----------



## markrmau

I read somewhere else (can't think where) that the Chinese are trying to shut down the spot market because spot prices are consistantly higher than contract prices.


----------



## chicken

markrmau said:
			
		

> I read somewhere else (can't think where) that the Chinese are trying to shut down the spot market because spot prices are consistantly higher than contract prices.



Funny that but looks as if its not going to happen re shutting down the spotmarket. Why....too many other players in the market... what the Chinese would like and what they get are 2 different situations...China needs STEEL now...its NOT a buyers market at present its a sellers market thats what it is...CHINA NEEDS THE ORE NOW...thats why....as the other producers will not start producing and selling till 2007/2008 at the earliest....


----------



## laurie

People have to realize the Chinese have been very skillfull in the way they conduct business they have PATIENCE if it saves them a $1 

cheers laurie


----------



## Porper

MGX definitely consolidating, and looks like a big movement is imminent judging by the charts.

Which way though? That is the six million dollar question. My feeling is down unless we get a decent announcement about contracts.

Anybody else... any theories?


----------



## zzkazu

My analysis too confirms consolidation.  Still in a bearish trend but could break either way..

zzkazu


----------



## Porper

Porper said:
			
		

> MGX definitely consolidating, and looks like a big movement is imminent judging by the charts.
> 
> Which way though? That is the six million dollar question. My feeling is down unless we get a decent announcement about contracts.
> 
> Anybody else... any theories?




Well, that was unexpected but good none the less. Thought Chicken would have posted a couple of times by now. Decent volume near the close so see what happens tomorrow.

A break above 0.68 at last so maybe our Elliot wave count will prove itself with top of wave 3 at 0.865 (my count & can easily be wrong as a beginner at this). Much more bullish now, especially as I have just had the worst 4 weeks trading ever


----------



## markrmau

Porper said:
			
		

> especially as I have just had the worst 4 weeks trading ever




I thought it was just me. 

I must have pee'd off one of the stock market gods. One of them is sitting behind my shoulder watching me punch in orders and making the market move against me.


----------



## el_ninj0

markrmau said:
			
		

> I thought it was just me.
> 
> I must have pee'd off one of the stock market gods. One of them is sitting behind my shoulder watching me punch in orders and making the market move against me.




Isn't it always the way markrmau? I remember selling a stock about a year back for 68 cents, 5 minutes later, it was back upto 75cents. Love it.....


----------



## chicken

markrmau said:
			
		

> I thought it was just me.
> 
> I must have pee'd off one of the stock market gods. One of them is sitting behind my shoulder watching me punch in orders and making the market move against me.



The Chicken is in the same boat as you..I try and keep my beak shut..but what a lovely sight that was yesterday..maybe the Chinese Shougan started buying the shares of MGX....some one knows something GOOD as  $1million is not exactly chickenfeed LOLOLOLOLOL


----------



## Ann

Hello Chicken and everyone,

I hate to do this to everyone but I have called a negative on this stock at other times in other places and have been correct. Here comes a bit more wet blanket. Sorry, I don't mean to spoil the fun. It is just my thought and this time I could be very wrong....


----------



## Lucstar

Anyone read The Age front page today? Doesn't look too promising for iron ore prices


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> Shy, I agree..the person who manipulates also knows its worth more and just wait it will go a lot higher as the manipulator is also buying..he sells cheap on one side as a sellers and buys on the buyers side.as  well...I know its not legal..but it is done every day in the world..believe it.....and no one gets prosecuted...in this perfect world....MGX is starting to pick up volume on the buy and sales and the manipulator will just be one of the crowd.. go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and you will get a lot of your answers there.....they are the 4th largest producer of iron ore and their assets are now even better since the Pilbara find....I own over 200k shares and I made my research..good stock this and Shougan is buying 20million shares at 75cents in MARCH.....2006....also MGX gives a presentation at the iron conference in Perth I think the dates were 23rd-24th February..more news should be out in days......



Serious accumulation taking place here...and the trader is very clever to keep the price at 67.5cents...Chinese no doubt buying...very clever he is..news should be out soon..stock has still a great future after all they are Australia's 4th largest producer...re Chinese price of Iron Ore..I feel we can anticipate  about a 10% increase..regardless what they say in the paper....THE CHINESE NEED IRON ORE>>>MUST HAVE...so a price will be got...The big firms are tough as well regardless of license etc..its a sellers market..CHINA NEEDS STEEL..simple...


----------



## shy

Ann said:
			
		

> Hello Chicken and everyone,
> 
> I hate to do this to everyone but I have called a negative on this stock at other times in other places and have been correct. Here comes a bit more wet blanket. Sorry, I don't mean to spoil the fun. It is just my thought and this time I could be very wrong....




Ann

I appreciate the analysis but can you please explain why you are so negative about this stock?

I do agree that from a PR perspective management could not have done worst. Starting from timing of announcements to repeating things that the market already knew and that got them punished again and again.  Apart from that I think this is a good stock that will show good profit even if iron ore prices will not go up by 20%. 

Shy


----------



## Ann

shy said:
			
		

> I do agree that from a PR perspective management could not have done worst. Starting from timing of announcements to repeating things that the market already knew and that got them punished again and again.




Hello Shy,

You are very new here, welcome.

I think you have just put your finger on the problem. What we have here is a good company with a good product in a booming sector. 

I first charted it around the end of November. When I looked at the chart I could "feel" a lack of strength and suggested it may have trouble getting over its overhead trendline. At that time Iron Ore was just the thing. Then there was the most ham fisted profit warning I think I have ever read. I said elsewhere at the time that these people need to hire a good 'spin doctor' to write their releases.

With a better presentation they could have made the announcement into a positive and enhanced their share price.  

So I would have to say, I don't trust management to put the best face on this company and it is likely to be reflected in the price......is that a fair enough answer? I don't have any real negatives about the company itself.

I will put my earlier chart up for you......but first a wee present for you shy....


----------



## Ann

Here is a chart with my comments from the beginning of December '05


----------



## chicken

Ann, the HK CHINESE just added another 4.5% to their holding its just under 10% of the issued capital..now I wonder as they have a better idea to what the outcome of the JV between MGX and Shougan is going to be after all..so the Australian non believers are selling to the Chinese believers..well I back the Chinese in Hong Kong..they know that Shougan is going ahead with the deal..and they getting the shares at a lovely discount...I just dont understand the investing public....I own shares in MGX...and if the Chinese are buying in the millions than that to me sets the tone..and I just stay there till its all sorted out....and it will, then the SP will be different than the price now...after all Huntleys gave it a valuation of $1.19.....but everyone sits on iron ore specs..which have not SOLD one ounce of Iron ore..eg CAZ,FMG....at huge SP prices..unbelievable.....while MGX is a PRODUCER


----------



## Ann

Hi Chicken,

I wonder if the Chinese are averaging down in an effort to make a take over of a great company?....

Did you pick up on this Age Newspaper article today?

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...-oreprice-talks/2006/03/08/1141701574926.html


----------



## chicken

Check out their 1/2 year results..first class in fact read it, they made a great profit..in fact 226% more than last year read and check it out yourself..by the way Ann thanks for that have not seen this article will read it..company has a profit upgrade.....


----------



## Ann

My pleasure dear Chicken,

Anything I find which may be of interest to you  is yours....


----------



## shy

Ann

Thanks for the present. I must admit I have not been long in the Australian market and have no experience with mining stocks. But, the basics are the same. I don’t know if this is the place to discuss how reliable charting is but as a fact it only looks at the past. As a tool I think it has great added value but I will not base my trades only on that. 

Back to MGX. I tend to support Chickens theory about the manipulation. If you look at the stocks on offer, there is one seller of 250k shares at 68.5. Now that bathers me. I don’t think this is somebody that bought at 66.5 and now doing some profit taking.  Or maybe the news of the wagons getting late just got to him/her. 

And this is the stupid question
Why would you want to sell 250k shares just after a price sensitive announcement????

Shy


----------



## el_ninj0

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/HC10Cb02.html 

Interesting article about the progress on the iron ore price negotiations.


----------



## chicken

I meant to post 262% more profit than in 2004  ...read it THE REPORT from MGX


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> I meant to post 262% more profit than in 2004  ...read it THE REPORT from MGX



Interesting article in The Age....13th March 2006...
Article reads LOST WA. ORE SURFACE IN CHINA BATTLE its about our joint venture in RMC...there is talk of  supplying China with 10mt a year of iron ore from this mine...Oppenheimer from SA involved MGX is the largest shareholder with 12.3% and this is getting interesting..read it in The Age...... 

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...in-china-battle/2006/03/12/1142098344290.html


----------



## el_ninj0

RMI getting an excellent run this morning. Up over 10% already. This could benefit MGX substantially.


----------



## Busylion

Ann said:
			
		

> Hello Chicken and everyone,
> 
> I hate to do this to everyone but I have called a negative on this stock at other times in other places and have been correct. Here comes a bit more wet blanket. Sorry, I don't mean to spoil the fun. It is just my thought and this time I could be very wrong....




Hi Ann,

Do you think MGX will drop below 65/66c? It seems that the decending triangle has been broken based on your chart. Is it correct?

Regards,
BL


----------



## chicken

Busylion said:
			
		

> Hi Ann,
> 
> Do you think MGX will drop below 65/66c? It seems that the decending triangle has been broken based on your chart. Is it correct?
> 
> Regards,
> BL



KEEP dreaming..below 65cents you are a joke...


----------



## chicken

I have posted in one of my posts that MGX found a huge deposit in their joint venture in the Kimberleys hope some of you read it MGX is the largest shareholder in RMC and it looks as if the big guns from SA ...Oppenheimer and his cronies are after some of the action..I can only see MGX going higher as the CHINESE from Hong Kong are buying actively as they know a good thing..see company report..and the Shougan as soon as they put their money up for the 20 million shares..I can see a $1 as Huntleys have a valuation of $1.19 and that is without their holding in the Kimberleys..the Chinese see value here I just dont understand the Aussie punter as they offer $2+ for CAZ..a non producer,and for FMG its even higher while MGX are producing and all falls into place...and posters ask questions as before just makes you think why people dont research their subject.....As soon as Shougan has finalised all deals in April you will find this sp A LOT DIFFERENT AND IT WILL HAPPEN OVER NIGHT....


----------



## el_ninj0

chicken said:
			
		

> KEEP dreaming..below 65cents you are a joke...



first post chicken, , go easy mate.


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> I have posted in one of my posts that MGX found a huge deposit in their joint venture in the Kimberleys hope some of you read it MGX is the largest shareholder in RMC and it looks as if the big guns from SA ...Oppenheimer and his cronies are after some of the action..I can only see MGX going higher as the CHINESE from Hong Kong are buying actively as they know a good thing..see company report..and the Shougan as soon as they put their money up for the 20 million shares..I can see a $1 as Huntleys have a valuation of $1.19 and that is without their holding in the Kimberleys..the Chinese see value here I just dont understand the Aussie punter as they offer $2+ for CAZ..a non producer,and for FMG its even higher while MGX are producing and all falls into place...and posters ask questions as before just makes you think why people dont research their subject.....As soon as Shougan has finalised all deals in April you will find this sp A LOT DIFFERENT AND IT WILL HAPPEN OVER NIGHT....



Ticker of RMC is RMI


----------



## el_ninj0

Looks like someone is attempting a sell off at the moment, trying to take advantage of the stronger buying position. Looking slightly stronger today though which is good. I'd say its because of the news about RMI, but i could be wrong...


----------



## chicken

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Looks like someone is attempting a sell off at the moment, trying to take advantage of the stronger buying position. Looking slightly stronger today though which is good. I'd say its because of the news about RMI, but i could be wrong...



No one wants to sell off, its capped by the Hong Kong Company so they can pick up more cheap stock as soon as it rises they sell shares so others jump on and the CHINESE buy..


----------



## el_ninj0

Little bit of hope today, higher than usual volume and up 2.5cps. We are going to need alot more than that to make a buck though. RMI not doing so well today though. Its running on hype of the chinese buyers though so i didn't think it would last too long.


----------



## chicken

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Little bit of hope today, higher than usual volume and up 2.5cps. We are going to need alot more than that to make a buck though. RMI not doing so well today though. Its running on hype of the chinese buyers though so i didn't think it would last too long.



Now that its confirmed with steel prices rising..Chinese considered, MGX will finally go up in SP....this stock is undervalued. Huntleys valuation is $1.19 so it looks we are heading that way..finally..still cheap at 72cents


----------



## stockGURU

Looks like the Iron ore contract negotiations are about to conclude and it seems like good news might be on the way for producers, including MGX.The Chinese blinked first.



> FOCUS:Iron Ore Price Hike Imminent As China Eases Stand
> 
> By Glenys Sim
> 
> Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
> 
> SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--The long drawn iron ore term contract negotiations may soon conclude and will very likely result in another round of price increases as China appears to be retreating from its earlier opposition to any increase this year, analysts said Thursday.
> 
> After three rounds of talks failed to resolve the deadlock, China's Shanghai Baosteel Group Corp. (600019.SH), representing the country's steel makers, will hold the fourth-round next week, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported Wednesday.
> 
> More significantly, the Chinese government will stay away from these negotiations and let the markets decide the price, Xinhua reported, indicating some increase in prices may be necessary for any timely decision on the term contracts.
> 
> "The Chinese government has expressed its concern, but will not intervene in the negotiations," the Xinhua report said, quoting a source familiar with the talks. "The price details will still be negotiated by the industry alone."
> 
> Baosteel is negotiating with Australia's Rio Tinto Group (RIO.AU) and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) as well as Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doc (RIO). The world's three largest producers together account for about 70% of global iron ore export sales.
> 
> Market observers expect 2006-07 iron ore prices to rise by 10%-20% over 2005-06 prices, which had already seen a hefty 71.5% rise from 2004-05 levels. New one-year term contracts are due for renewal from April 1.
> 
> After taking a tough stand during the previous three rounds by banning smaller steel mills from directly negotiating with suppliers, the Chinese government seems to have slowly come round to the idea of higher prices, given the ongoing tightness in global supply of iron ore and the country's huge appetite for steel, analysts said.
> 
> "In terms of being able to dictate prices, iron ore producers will continue to have pricing power until supply moves into a surplus position, which is unlikely in the short term," said National Australia Bank mineral economist Gerard Burg.
> 
> Shares of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto were both higher by nearly 2% in early Australian trading Thursday as market participants factor in the impact of a price rise. "A few weeks ago, people were saying they would be lucky to get an increase, and now they are obviously going to get (a) 15%-20% (raise)," an institutional dealer in Sydney said.
> 
> Left With Little Choice On Raw Materials
> 
> Market participants say China's easing stance is not surprising, given its huge requirement for the raw material, used to produce steel.
> 
> In a speech at an industry gathering Wednesday, Sam Walsh, chief executive of Rio Tinto's iron ore division said he sees continuing "strong" demand for iron ore from China for many years to come.
> 
> China imported 51.47 million metric tons of iron ore during the January-February period, up 31.9% on year, according to latest Customs data.
> 
> With such strong demand, mineral and metal prices will remain above their long term trend for some time to come, Walsh said. "It is far, far, too early to suggest that the current commodities cycle has peaked."
> 
> Not surprisingly, far from being an asset that will help it dictate prices, China's huge dependence on imported iron ore is still a liability that makes the country vulnerable to the pressures of the market.
> 
> "China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market," Morgan Stanley analyst Andy Xie said in a recent report.
> 
> According to the National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, China had an installed capacity to produce 470 million tons steel in 2005, with another 70 million tons in the pipeline, although utilization was much lower.
> 
> Actual steel production is expected to hit 390 million tons this year, up 10%-15% from 2005.
> 
> "If the negotiation drags on or even lead to trade disputes between China and iron ore exporting countries, this could result in a shortage of iron ore in China and slow steel production growth, resulting in higher steel prices," said JP Morgan analyst Feng Zhang.
> 
> To Influence Future Govt. Role In Price Talks
> 
> If the settlement indeed leads to higher prices, it may have a lasting impact on any government role in future price negotiations for scarce raw materials which China buys in large quantities.
> 
> Many fear that if China succeeds in avoiding a price rise this time, it could result in the government taking a more aggressive role in future negotiations.
> 
> Japanese steel makers have traditionally led annual iron price negotiations in the past, but China, which imports nearly half of world's iron ore output, decided to muscle in this year, following the sharp rise in prices last year.
> 
> "China is playing hardball... by limiting what importers can pay. This is the first step by China to limit commodity prices. We believe China will likely develop a comprehensive strategy to deal with commodity prices," Morgan Stanley's Andy Xie said.
> 
> But indicating the government's loosing grip on negotiations, the China Securities Journal Tuesday said iron ore prices could rise 5% to 10% this year. China's state-controlled media had earlier mostly echoed steel makers' calls for a reduction in prices.
> 
> The report followed comments by a top Chinese economic planner that the government would not interfere in ongoing negotiations.
> 
> "The government will not interfere. This price will be decided on the basis of market and enterprise negotiations," Ma Kai, head of NDRC, the country's top economic planner, said Friday.
> 
> Ma's remarks came two days after NDRC and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a statement saying Chinese steel and iron enterprises are facing many problems, making it difficult for them to accept another price increase.
> 
> But market participants say it is hard for the Chinese government to intervene because of its World Trade Organization obligations.
> 
> "Factors that make it hard for China's government to intervene include WTO obligations and wanting to avoid trade friction with Brazil and Australia," said Australia-based metals consultant Michael Komesaroff of Urandaline Investments.




http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060323/15/3zklb.html


----------



## Kipp

It doesn't quite make sense to me how Steel Prices are heading downhill (along with Bluescope) yet iron ore is set to move +10-20%?  I suppose the big issue here is that China has the capacity to produce Steel (and hence the massive surplus or "glut") but not iron ore?  Is that it?


----------



## chicken

Looks like the train is starting to leave the station and all aboard who want to go for the next ride up....took a long time as the broker who buys for the Hong Kong has been busy in building a substantial stake in the company...I think from memory about 10%.....looks all great so far for April.......and looks as if a small increase to 10% will happen in the iron ore price..nice for MGX..good luck to all holders..I am holding.....


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> Looks like the train is starting to leave the station and all aboard who want to go for the next ride up....took a long time as the broker who buys for the Hong Kong has been busy in building a substantial stake in the company...I think from memory about 10%.....looks all great so far for April.......and looks as if a small increase to 10% will happen in the iron ore price..nice for MGX..good luck to all holders..I am holding.....



Watch as we get the price update for iron ore,mgx will go quickly over 80cents....why do people sell a stock which will rise very quickly from here..got me beat....I am holding like the Chinese I SEE VALUE HERE....comments


----------



## TjamesX

Kipp said:
			
		

> It doesn't quite make sense to me how Steel Prices are heading downhill (along with Bluescope) yet iron ore is set to move +10-20%?  I suppose the big issue here is that China has the capacity to produce Steel (and hence the massive surplus or "glut") but not iron ore?  Is that it?




I think the this is a unfortunatly a function of steel being a 'manufactured' product. And anything that is 'manufactured' is being done by China. But Iron Ore comes straight out of the ground.... and China needs it to make its steel.


----------



## chicken

Looks as if my prediction are coming to bear fruit anyone who bought will come into a windfall...all good news for this stock..Railwagons are delivered and hauling ironore,,,,also it looks as if there are more than one company to join the venture....so looks as if we shareholders who held are getting their rewards after all....so good luck to all shareholders who held as the weakhands sold out....as Huntleys valuation is a lot higher..also see Bell Potters latest report...www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  its all there for everyone to read..this will be another winner for sure


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> Looks as if my prediction are coming to bear fruit anyone who bought will come into a windfall...all good news for this stock..Railwagons are delivered and hauling ironore,,,,also it looks as if there are more than one company to join the venture....so looks as if we shareholders who held are getting their rewards after all....so good luck to all shareholders who held as the weakhands sold out....as Huntleys valuation is a lot higher..also see Bell Potters latest report...www.mtgibsoniron.com.au  its all there for everyone to read..this will be another winner for sure



Looking good...how high will the iron ore be priced from the 1st of April...I would say between 18% and 20%...will make MGX very attractive....And Shougan wants in and wants 20million Shares at 75cents...and the Chinese will have nearly 30% of all shares then..its getting interesting..lots of buyers.....


----------



## TheAnalyst

Its good to see mgx finally get moving and the trains arrive but for me it is a bit to much of a wait from January to basically April to get 10-20%


----------



## el_ninj0

TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Its good to see mgx finally get moving and the trains arrive but for me it is a bit to much of a wait from January to basically April to get 10-20%




You would turn down 20% profit in 3 months??

I know i wouldn't.


----------



## Mumbank

I agree el ninjo I thought it was about making profit and 20% ain't bad for 3 months- we may even get more than that!!


----------



## Mumbank

Finally, a positive announcement on rail waggons and crushing plant.  Perhaps they have employed a media manager!!


----------



## markrmau

I'm thinking of ditching this company as it obviously leaks like a bloody sieve.

Dec last year it was going down at least 2 weeks prior to the bad announcement. This time it started going up a week before the good announcement (they even had photos of the bloody rail cars on HC yesterday).

That is not my definition of a well run company.


----------



## chicken

markrmau said:
			
		

> I'm thinking of ditching this company as it obviously leaks like a bloody sieve.
> 
> Dec last year it was going down at least 2 weeks prior to the bad announcement. This time it started going up a week before the good announcement (they even had photos of the bloody rail cars on HC yesterday).
> 
> That is not my definition of a well run company.



yeah, whatever....but they are ramping up production..in other words making $$$$..the Iron ore will go up in price next week...the railwagons are there..they got their own crushing plant installed...and Shougan looks as if its going to go ahead with buying of shares..there are others who now want to take this stake and you are telling us we are all wrong..well as long as you believe what you think..thats important...so buy CAZ...no tennament no production but over $2....this is a crazy world.....but Huntleys and brokers are giving us a valuation for over $1..and you ,who, is not a broker,and just trades shares tells us we are wrong..well, dont buy, there is more for others who see an undervalued stock with a great potential..go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and make your own research....as this stock is undervalued......IMHO


----------



## markrmau

chicken said:
			
		

> and you ,who, is not a broker,and just trades shares tells us we are wrong..



Right or wrong doesn't come into it. 

I look to invest in well run companies. A company where there is clearly a partially informed market does not fit my definition of a well run company. It may well go to $1.5 in about 12 months, but I will probably sell when this current run ends.


----------



## chicken

markrmau said:
			
		

> Right or wrong doesn't come into it.
> 
> I look to invest in well run companies. A company where there is clearly a partially informed market does not fit my definition of a well run company. It may well go to $1.5 in about 12 months, but I will probably sell when this current run ends.



If you sell or buy..who cares as far as a well run company..well did you notice how much money they are making and the CHINESE who have been adding to their stake quite heavily..and you are talking of selling..quite frankly..WHO THE HELL CARES.....I am not, as I think out of the square..the Chinese do as well...and the SP is starting to move..as I said buy FMG or CAZ...which have NO production..but look at the SP.....now go and sell so other people will get the benefit of your shares....give us some positive input than you dont like this or that....WHO cares I dont as I know I am on the right track....like ZFX, SBM and now MGX they are all winners...as far as the company is concerned...they are running it at a good profit..and now ramping up production...well I bet you could not do better....as far as the Shareholder is concerned...MGX has a girl which now gives out more information re the company....its all go in this company and $1 is not far off sellers are drying up....and watch tomorrow when we get the price for iron ore..I hear it could be as high as 27.5% which is huge....So how about something constructive rather than just negativity.....from you


----------



## wayneL

Chicken,

I don't think markmrau's comments were meant personally. If you think you are on the right track then hold on to those shares. But be cool


----------



## chicken

wayneL said:
			
		

> Chicken,
> 
> I don't think markmrau's comments were meant personally. If you think you are on the right track then hold on to those shares. But be cool



I know they were not meant personally..but how can a share trader decide if a company is run well or not..because the shareholders are not advised all the time when something happens..I rather have they make $$$ which they are..and in todays Age information is readily available for everyone to see..after all the managers are busy as lots of work has to be done..and by the looks of things its being done real well...Wayne you live in Geraldton you would see how active the miners are there...the harbour etc....and I know they fell down only in the information to the shareholders..but...they are bringing home the bacon..now that is important to all of us shareholders..I said its a winner....well I can only judge the company on their performance,....and they are performing


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> Watch as we get the price update for iron ore,mgx will go quickly over 80cents....why do people sell a stock which will rise very quickly from here..got me beat....I am holding like the Chinese I SEE VALUE HERE....comments



Today or monday the new iron ore price will be known...now I wonder what the new price will be but whatever it is..its going to propel MGX SP upwards...have a look at the GOLD price...WOW...now we wait for the FE iron ore price......maybe another WOW...the only thing is our purchase price will go up for EVERYONE.....what more can I say ,but, it also will reflect in the SP...up.....


----------



## Porper

MGX has certainly had a big run recently, and according to my very basic Elliot wave count has reached my target.Still rising on very good volume so I think tightening those stops and see what develops is in order.

The only downside that I can see is if price negotiations drag on with the Chinese, which from one report I read could happen.

Still been my best performer by far recently.


----------



## Broadside

Hi, I am a long term holder, accumulating since around 10 cents, averaging up and bought more at 86.5 today (hmm?), still very confident but would like to see iron ore negotiations completed.  Chinese Premier said today market forces should prevail which is good news and should smooth the way for a speedy resolution. 


AFX News Limited
China to get iron ore from NKorea - report
04.03.2006, 03:25 AM

BEIJING (AFX) - China will look to North Korea to diversify and expand its supply base of iron ore, Steel Business Briefing reported, citing a source close to the matter.

It did not provide further details.

China has been looking to increase its suppliers of iron ore beyond the world's three largest miners, which currently account for some 70 pct of China's imports of the commodity.

Baosteel, representing the Chinese steel industry, has been in talks with Australia's BHP Billiton Ltd, Rio Tinto Group, and Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce since late last year to set iron ore contract prices for the year to March 2007.

While China has been calling for a cut in 2006 iron ore prices, the three mining companies have been seeking increases of at least 20 pct over last year, analysts said earlier.

Baosteel's recent price hikes are putting pressure on China's steelmakers to agree to an increase in iron ore import prices in the ongoing negotiations, the report said.

Earlier this month, the Ministry of Commerce said it 'will watch closely the progress of the iron ore price negotiations. If an unreasonable price that is unacceptable to the Chinese side (is) put forward, the Chinese government (will) adopt necessary measures to keep the interests of the country and its enterprises from being damaged.'

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao today said in Australia that iron ore prices should be negotiated between suppliers and steel mills on a commercial basis.


----------



## Broadside

and this from another site, a good overview of where MGX is at....April is a big month in the history of the company...good luck to holders

==========================================================

CHINESE FACE DECISION OF JOINING IRON ORE PROJECT THIS MONTH

Sydney - Monday - April 3: (RWE Aust Business News)

***************************************************

OVERVIEW

********

This is an important month for Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) because Chinese steel manufacturer Shougang has until April 30 to decide whether to participate in the Extension Hill magnetite project and become a 50/50 JV partner.

If it eventuates, and is highly likely as the feasibility study is looking good, MGX ownership will be diluted to about 37.5 per cent and Shougang will take a 15 per cent interest in MGX at 75c and will be required to inject $174 million into the project.

Shaw Stockbroking suggests Mt Gibson stock is a buy, saying that in light of the very tight WA labour and construction market it believes it is unlikely the company would commit to development within the next six months and will not do so until it can lock in a fix price offtake agreement with its JV partner to offset the substantial capital risk.

The broking firm believes the group/JV aim is to progress the project to a point where it is ready to hit the go button when a cool-down in the WA construction market appears and fixed contractors' costs can be locked in.

Concurrently or pre-empting this development may be the commencement of construction of the Nanjing pellet plant, which offers strong margins in the current environment even if feed is sourced from third parties.

Meanwhile, Mount Gibson announced it has settled a dispute with its crushing contractor and has subsequently purchased the equipment.

Whilst no details were divulged analysts believe the cash outflow to MGX is a couple of million dollars.

The next and more important item announced was the arrival of 34 rail wagons which will enable the group to complete its production ramp up to three million tonnes per annum (mtpa).

The wagons are undergoing commissioning and should be in service from late April.

SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS

*********************

Shares of Mount Gibson on Friday edged up 1.5c to 83.5c. Rolling high for the year has been 90c and low 43.5c. At one stage the Ferret drew traders' attention to the company's ties with the Chinese when the shares were selling a little above 20c.

Mount Gibson has purchased the crushing facility and associated plant and equipment at its Tallering Peak operations from Rapid Crushing and Screening Contractors (Rapid).

The purchase of the facility reduces the risks associated with installing a replacement contract crushing plant as the operation moves to 3mtpa production rates.

The purchase of the crushing facility has significant operational and financial advantages to any alternatives available within the current industry environment.

All disputes between Rapid and MGM have been resolved.

The Tallering Peak rail wagons, due for delivery from China, arrived in Geraldton on March 13.

The 32 wagons are currently undergoing operational readiness testing and will be available for haulage in late April as scheduled.

Mount Gibson Iron reported a net profit after tax of $22.1 million for the six months to December 31.

It was the first time International Financial Reporting Standards were applied to the company's results.

The company has recently developed a sustainable life of mine operating plan for the Tallering Peak hematite operation, which involves the development of the T6 orebody and a major cutback of existing pits.

As previously reported in December, a consequence of the cutback and the development of the T6 pit will be reduced ore production and grade for the six months to June, which will affect both cash flow and profitability for the period.

However, as a result of recent developments, the Tallering Peak operations will be in a position to achieve the forecast production rate of 3mtpa from June and will be well positioned to take advantage of increased production volumes whilst iron ore prices remain historically high.

BACKGROUND

**********

Mount Gibson Iron was established as a specialist iron ore exploration company in 1996 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in January 2002.

It was formerly Whittakers Ltd.

A series of capital raisings since then have permitted the company to begin the progressive development of iron ore hematite deposits in the midwest region of Western Australia which it owns, controls, or over which it holds mining rights.

Mount Gibson's first mine at Tallering Peak commenced exporting direct shipping grade hematite to China in February 2004 and is currently operating at 2mtpa with plans to expand to 3mtpa by June.

The company's current focus is on the development of a mine at Extension Hill, in the Mt Gibson ranges, to produce 5mtpa of magnetite concentrate as feed for pellet production in China.

The company has a 71 per cent shareholding in Asia Iron Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong-registered company.

Subject to completion of a feasibility study and project financing will develop the Extension Hill mine in a 50:50 joint venture with the Shougang Group. Asia Iron will separately build and own a 2.5mtpa pellet plant in China

There are Tallering Peak (hematite) with a reported mine life of eight to 10 years; Mt Gibson (magnetite and hematite) on a 10-year life line and Koolanooka South.

Exports of the company's iron products will be made through the Port of Geraldton where a $100 million dredging and facilities upgrade is nearing completion.


----------



## chicken

Solid buying at 88cents now...news will not be far of.......$1+ here


----------



## Broadside

it was really encouraging today chicken, I have been watching trading in MGX really closely the past couple of weeks...probably too closely   and every time it threatened to break out it would be capped by a solid sell order and quiet accumulation on the buy side would take place. At lunch today a big order went in at 86c, leapfrogged by 86.5, then 87 all the way to 89.5 cents, and took out heaps of sellers at each price.  It smacked of panic buying, or at least indiscriminate compared with recent activity, hoping it points to an announcement just around the corner and they were desperate to get set -- finesse went out the window.

Maybe that is wishful thinking.  Still, if the deals with the Chinese go ahead (magnetite and / or pellet plant) it will smash through $1.00 I have little doubt, and then we still have the iron ore price negotiations to be finalised too.

I am very optimistic of good news after today's activity.


----------



## chicken

Broadside said:
			
		

> it was really encouraging today chicken, I have been watching trading in MGX really closely the past couple of weeks...probably too closely   and every time it threatened to break out it would be capped by a solid sell order and quiet accumulation on the buy side would take place. At lunch today a big order went in at 86c, leapfrogged by 86.5, then 87 all the way to 89.5 cents, and took out heaps of sellers at each price.  It smacked of panic buying, or at least indiscriminate compared with recent activity, hoping it points to an announcement just around the corner and they were desperate to get set -- finesse went out the window.
> 
> Maybe that is wishful thinking.  Still, if the deals with the Chinese go ahead (magnetite and / or pellet plant) it will smash through $1.00 I have little doubt, and then we still have the iron ore price negotiations to be finalised too.
> 
> I am very optimistic of good news after today's activity.



Now going through at 90.5cents....a $1 is not far off...might hit that way today...or we be hitting it ...next week.....$1+..........


----------



## laurie

Hmmmmm lets see how many can jump on a speeding train one of the advantages getting on at a train station  :    go you good thing 

cheers laurie


----------



## el_ninj0

laurie said:
			
		

> Hmmmmm lets see how many can jump on a speeding train one of the advantages getting on at a train station  :    go you good thing
> 
> cheers laurie




I agree laurie, walking on at the station is alot less painful than jumping onto it while its just got going. Too bad it took so long to leave the station though...


----------



## Broadside

nice to see a mad scramble for stock isn't it when we are already set with comfy seats in 1st class     they can sit on the roof


----------



## chicken

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> I agree laurie, walking on at the station is alot less painful than jumping onto it while its just got going. Too bad it took so long to leave the station though...



I agree, it took a while looking good for next week...$1+.........


----------



## laurie

el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Too bad it took so long to leave the station though...




Well ei_ninj0 there was no excuse[not you] not to jump on! of the things it took me a long time to learn in dealing with stocks is *PATIENCE* it will reward you in the end   

cheers laurie


----------



## Kipp

Sold at out at .87 yesterday (previous resistence line in Dec before its crash) looking like a very bad decision today today.... should of sold my bloody MAP instead!!!  
Ah well- hindsight is 20-20-


----------



## rederob

Kipp said:
			
		

> Sold at out at .87 yesterday (previous resistence line in Dec before its crash) looking like a very bad decision today today.... should of sold my bloody MAP instead!!!
> Ah well- hindsight is 20-20-



Investing (trading if you prefer) is most profitable when done strategically and fundamentally.
In MGX's case the "strategics" are compelling: Chinese need iron ore and want to get it as cheaply as possible.  So buying into a small producer with expansionary plans is a better proposition than getting screwed by BHP/RIO every year that ore prices are renegotiated.
Fundamentals are two pronged for MGX: The company's returns in the second half will be compelling, while demand for its products are both robust and likely to have price upside in the near term, and comparative stability in future years.
If you have a look at Oxiana's chart a year or so ago, you will see a similar trend in that the stock went nowhere for while, although all the time the company was ramping up its production.  Ultimately this flows into the company's bottom line and the market "sees" value in the stock.  In fact the "value" was always there if one cared to look.


----------



## laurie

FMD!! MGX hit by a price query by the ASX this evening where were the prick$ when the price was being played around by certain investors give me a f%^k break  :swear:  :swear: 

cheers laurie


----------



## rederob

laurie said:
			
		

> FMD!! MGX hit by a price query by the ASX this evening where were the prick$ when the price was being played around by certain investors give me a f%^k break  :swear:  :swear:
> 
> cheers laurie



Laurie
ASX price queries are great news in this case as investors will be "looking" for something from the company.
I think the share price momentum for iron ore producers has simply flipped north with mooted higher ore prices - unfounded rumours?
In any event, MGX has a "darling" status amongst the juniors and needs very little good news (or no bad news) to keep it ticking along.
Don't get angry, get more - MGX that is!
The dollar price barrier should crumble decisively in the weeks ahead.


----------



## chicken

rederob said:
			
		

> Laurie
> ASX price queries are great news in this case as investors will be "looking" for something from the company.
> I think the share price momentum for iron ore producers has simply flipped north with mooted higher ore prices - unfounded rumours?
> In any event, MGX has a "darling" status amongst the juniors and needs very little good news (or no bad news) to keep it ticking along.
> Don't get angry, get more - MGX that is!
> The dollar price barrier should crumble decisively in the weeks ahead.



I do agree with Laurie, and I know where he is coming from...Huntleys valuation is $1.25....shaws is higher and this stock had been capped by a broker the true price is over $1.25 and under $2....so we have been told by experts and anything under $1 is very cheap....not my opinion but see the research on their webside...and being a producer adds value to the stock...unlike CAZ..and some other iron hopefulls....they should have a speeding ticket....whereby MGX has everything going for it now yes, $1+ is in the cards next week....as the capper cant keep up with the intrest in this stock....now with a volume spike we will see mgx over $1 next week....great volume on friday and good luck to all holders looks like Shougan will come to the party........great for MGX


----------



## Mofra

laurie said:
			
		

> FMD!! MGX hit by a price query by the ASX this evening where were the prick$ when the price was being played around by certain investors give me a f%^k break  :swear:  :swear:
> 
> cheers laurie



Interesting that even with the price rise, MGX is trading on a PE discount to the market average yet the ASX still see fit to issue a query notice. This discount is even more pronounced if you take the projected full year figures for the 2006 tax year.

I'll just scratch my head, laugh and keep smiling as a LT holder


----------



## Broadside

Bit of a joke isn't it? Uranium speccies go up 50% in a day and no speeding ticket....something is clearly up with WME last 2 weeks everyone is talking of an announcement and the price reflects this, no speeding ticket....but MGX surges a little and gets queried.

Hey does anyone know if the Chinese have a deadline on the magnetite decision?  The article I posted the other day says it is April but I can't find hard evidence of this from the company's announcements....


----------



## el_ninj0

Broadside said:
			
		

> Hey does anyone know if the Chinese have a deadline on the magnetite decision?  The article I posted the other day says it is April but I can't find hard evidence of this from the company's announcements....




Yer i was looking for the announcement the other day aswell Broadside. It took a bit of searching but its the announcement on the 22/02/2006	12:08PM
as on comsec titled: Progress on Extension Hill Magnetite Project.

I was also searching for the announcement which described in detail how much shougang were intending to purchase, but i couldn't find it anywhere. Let me know if you know which one it is please.


----------



## Broadside

check announcement 15 September 2005 chicken

yes the 22 Feb refers to engineering within 2 months but did not say that was a firm deadline, and no mention of 30 April??  I wonder where that date came from.  Shaw Stockbroking?  has anyone seen latest research from Shaws as opposed to the year old broker report on the mt gibson website?


----------



## el_ninj0

Broadside said:
			
		

> check announcement 15 September 2005 chicken
> 
> yes the 22 Feb refers to engineering within 2 months but did not say that was a firm deadline, and no mention of 30 April??  I wonder where that date came from.  Shaw Stockbroking?  has anyone seen latest research from Shaws as opposed to the year old broker report on the mt gibson website?




AIHL and Shougang, the two potential participants in the development and operation of the
Extension Hill mine, concentrator and associated slurry pipeline transport system to the Port of
Geraldton, must commit in-principle to participation in the project by 30 April 2006.

As in the 22nd feb 2006 announcement.


----------



## Broadside

yeah!  thanks I should learn to read more carefully


----------



## el_ninj0

Broadside said:
			
		

> yeah!  thanks I should learn to read more carefully




Everyone makes mistakes from time to time alan.


----------



## Broadside

I answered my own question now on hc   I have to get back to looking at the fundamentals it was a no brainer at 70 cents but now it is closer to a dollar these projects become much more important for future price appreciation....at $1.00 I think MGX is much closer to fair value for its haematite.


----------



## laurie

Well Oxiana went the very same way .90c one minute $2.99 next minute my god when the train pick ups speed it's *NORTH POLE* next stop   

oh by the way my anger with the ASX about price query is why do they not query companies when the price drops! what .....don't they think there's inside info when everyone's jumping off the Titanic  :swear: 

cheers laurie


----------



## el_ninj0

laurie said:
			
		

> oh by the way my anger with the ASX about price query is why do they not query companies when the price drops! what .....don't they think there's inside info when everyone's jumping off the Titanic  :swear:




Ive thought exactly the same thing laurie, its only when people make money and not when they loose it they expect something is going on. The problem is, its usually the people that have the big parcels that make everyone else lose the money in the first place!


----------



## roger_leong

1519  [Dow Jones] Tolhurst Noall broker Marcus Padley warns of uranium "hot
potato" after recent hype of agreements with China dies down. Points out primary
industry minister Macfarlane's comment that significant uranium exports to China
unlikely to start until 2010 and any new mines will need government approval.
"As soon as the hype dies down, the volume and volatility will drift away, the
trades will be closed out and those who imagined more than a trade will be left
holding the cooling potato," says Padley. Still, rally hasn't finished yet, with
junior uranium explorers like Marathon Resources (MTN.AU) up 27%, Toro Energy
(TOE.AU) up 22%, Extract Resources (EXT.AU) up 22%, Southern Gold (SAU.AU) up
13%, Quantum Resources (QUR.AU) up 18%. (DWR)


----------



## el_ninj0

roger_leong said:
			
		

> 1519  [Dow Jones] Tolhurst Noall broker Marcus Padley warns of uranium "hot
> potato" after recent hype of agreements with China dies down. Points out primary
> industry minister Macfarlane's comment that significant uranium exports to China
> unlikely to start until 2010 and any new mines will need government approval.
> "As soon as the hype dies down, the volume and volatility will drift away, the
> trades will be closed out and those who imagined more than a trade will be left
> holding the cooling potato," says Padley. Still, rally hasn't finished yet, with
> junior uranium explorers like Marathon Resources (MTN.AU) up 27%, Toro Energy
> (TOE.AU) up 22%, Extract Resources (EXT.AU) up 22%, Southern Gold (SAU.AU) up
> 13%, Quantum Resources (QUR.AU) up 18%. (DWR)




Thanks for the post roger, if you would be so kind to explain to us what exactly this has to do with MGX?


----------



## chicken

roger_leong said:
			
		

> 1519  [Dow Jones] Tolhurst Noall broker Marcus Padley warns of uranium "hot
> potato" after recent hype of agreements with China dies down. Points out primary
> industry minister Macfarlane's comment that significant uranium exports to China
> unlikely to start until 2010 and any new mines will need government approval.
> "As soon as the hype dies down, the volume and volatility will drift away, the
> trades will be closed out and those who imagined more than a trade will be left
> holding the cooling potato," says Padley. Still, rally hasn't finished yet, with
> junior uranium explorers like Marathon Resources (MTN.AU) up 27%, Toro Energy
> (TOE.AU) up 22%, Extract Resources (EXT.AU) up 22%, Southern Gold (SAU.AU) up
> 13%, Quantum Resources (QUR.AU) up 18%. (DWR)



MGX are iron ore producers...who is thinking Uranium..do your research as MGX is a pure Iron play....just goes to show people invest and dont know what they invest in...MGX was grossly undervalued and has been capped by a broker it now has broken out and huntleys value is $1.25...but the stock could go as high as $2....as soon as Shougan takes up its shares stock will move to $1.50....MGX are making the $$$$$ not burning money and we are not talking hype here see MGX website and their are reports what has been happening....I'd rather have MGX...producers than a lot of other shares which have NO production..I am in for the long term..and its looking better every day....and as soon as the Chinese take up their shares see the stock move quickly...why did the Hong Kong broker buy all the MGX shares lately..they know what will happen...when everyone sold THEY BOUGHT...and have now 10% of MGX.....Shougan must know the potential and I would say come the 30thApril it would not surprise that they will proceed  WHY,....they need Iron ore....and if they have a  hand in production...they make money both ways...on the mining of the ore and on the manufacturing of steel...plus they may get a discount from the mine...so its a win win situation for SHOUGAN...I can see it going ahead


----------



## markrmau

You're slipping chicken. You forgot to tell anyone saying anything negative about mgx to buy caz. 

Also chicken. Run your eye over GRR. You may like what you see, but with a bit of luck, you may pick some up for less than 1.60ish...


----------



## shinobi346

Price has stagnated. I wonder why.


----------



## Broadside

it probably needed to consolidate a little it was quite a run from the high sixties in a short space of time....and the market awaits news on (1) iron ore price (2) magnetite Shougang deal (3) pellet plant....

that is what I am hoping anyway  :


----------



## Lucstar

Holy sh*t! Talk about luck being on my side. I sold out yesterday at 99.5c and got back in today at 92.5c.


----------



## shinobi346

Went up and down like a yo-yo yesterday. I topped up at 88c. Holding on for the long term. //thumbsup


----------



## Porper

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> Went up and down like a yo-yo yesterday. I topped up at 88c. Holding on for the long term. //thumbsup





I sold out early last week but bought back a few on Thursday only for the price to gap way below my stop, so lost out this time.Still been a excellent trade over all.

Thinking seriously about shorting this stock now after the terrible results, see how Monday goes but I feel the tide has turned now.


----------



## chicken

Porper said:
			
		

> I sold out early last week but bought back a few on Thursday only for the price to gap way below my stop, so lost out this time.Still been a excellent trade over all.
> 
> Thinking seriously about shorting this stock now after the terrible results, see how Monday goes but I feel the tide has turned now.



Porper..be careful here in shorting as you could lose your money....CHINESE are buying heavily into this group...and IRON ORE price should be known soon....so I think long is the way to go....will be over $1 soon...as soon as iron ore price is known all steel..or iron ore producer will rise including MGX....MGX have stockpiled $20 million of iron ore which will be mixed with other iron ore...and MGX are now crushing their own ore....company progressing further...next quarter will be big surprise....will rerate company...


----------



## Broadside

yesterday's notice - Chinese buying last Friday and on Monday this week when the stock was getting sold off.


----------



## laurie

MGX announced it has settled a dispute with its crushing contractor and has subsequently purchased the equipment. Whilst no details were divulged we believe the cash outflow to MGX is a couple of million dollars. The next and more important item announced was the arrival of 34 rail wagons which will enable the group to complete its production ramp up to 3mtpa.    

cheers laurie


----------



## Lucstar

Where did you read this off?

I don't see any announcements on my screen.


----------



## Broadside

laurie I think this dates back to March, it is good news but old news.....I am getting a bit jittery with the weakness on the back of the quarterly but putting it in perspective it has delivered over the last 3 years and has had a great run...I just want icing on the cake with the pellet plant and hopefully the magnetite project.  I have read one analysis (might be Bell Potter) that it represents fair value now based on its current projects with a "free" option for these other blue sky projects which would add significant value.

But hey I want it all, want to see it keep rising NOW  :


----------



## laurie

From here
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egolihome.asp

cheers laurie


----------



## hypnotic

laurie said:
			
		

> MGX announced it has settled a dispute with its crushing contractor and has subsequently purchased the equipment. Whilst no details were divulged we believe the cash outflow to MGX is a couple of million dollars. The next and more important item announced was the arrival of 34 rail wagons which will enable the group to complete its production ramp up to 3mtpa.
> 
> cheers laurie




Sounds like a great news!!


----------



## Broadside

this is definitely old public information so it is factored in the price, but I cannot find the source from any MGX announcements.  I can't recall where this information first appeared.


----------



## laurie

Hmmmmm I never known Shaws to post old news! then again it was news to me so I posted here sorry if it's old news   

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken

laurie said:
			
		

> Hmmmmm I never known Shaws to post old news! then again it was news to me so I posted here sorry if it's old news
> 
> cheers laurie



You are right there.....MGX are doing their own crushing and ramping volume up.....they purchased the equipment as it is less expensive to do their own...also the CHINESE in Hong kong HAVE INCREASED their shareholding and are still very actively buying more..Shougan has to decide this month what they are going to do and my feeling is that it will go ahead..as they need the ore to make steel..a win,win situation for Shougan...I still have 200k shares at 81cents....see Shaws,and Huntleys report..valuing the company between $1.25 and $1.45.....so I believe Shougan will join the party....IMHO


----------



## Kipp

What is the lastest news in Iron Ore negoiations with the Chinese?  Any agreement yet?  Surely if the keep falling through and MGX sells at spot prices this can only be a good thing for profits (in the short term anyway).


----------



## Broadside

Kipp I have read that if prices aren't finalised by June 30 many contracts expire and steel makers need to buy on the spot market which is 20% higher (and demand would drive it up even further)....so I think that is the absolute latest we would see the negotiations finalised.  When a price is agreed it is backdated to the start of April.


----------



## laurie

And most likely contract for 2 yrs to prevent what is now happening  

cheers laurie


----------



## Broadside

yes laurie I heard that might be a possibility too....rather than a one year 20% rise (where the Chinese lose face) and then perhaps a flat price beyond, they could have a 10% rise in year one and a further 10% rise in year 2, a 2 year contract.  This would give producers and steel makers more certainty with forward planning and would enable each to claim a win in the negotiations.


----------



## chicken

Broadside said:
			
		

> yes laurie I heard that might be a possibility too....rather than a one year 20% rise (where the Chinese lose face) and then perhaps a flat price beyond, they could have a 10% rise in year one and a further 10% rise in year 2, a 2 year contract.  This would give producers and steel makers more certainty with forward planning and would enable each to claim a win in the negotiations.



the Germans are paying 19% more to the South Americans in Brazil..looks as if the Chinese might have to pay the same...19% is great news for MGX...price started to move back up today.....finished at 87.5 cents..also the Chinese from HK are still actively buying and own now over 30%.....cheap at these prices....


----------



## Broadside

looks like Japanese have broken ranks too and dealt

Vale Wins 19% Japan Iron-Ore Rise; Pellet Price Falls (Update1)

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's largest iron-ore producer, said Japanese steelmakers agreed to a 19 percent increase in the price of iron-ore for 2006. The price of Vale blast-furnace ore pellets to Japan will fall 3 percent.

The price increases are for iron-ore and pellets from Rio de Janeiro-based Vale's Carajas, which ships through the port of Sao Luis, Brazil, and Southern, which ships through the port of Tubarao, Brazil, Vale said in an e-mail statement.

Vale, whose Brazilian mines are running at full capacity, had asked for a 24 percent increase to finance expansion. The company plans to spend $2.1 billion this year to expand iron-ore output, the statement said. The price agreed to in Japan is the same agreed to by TheyssenKrupp AG, Germany's largest steelmaker, on May 16.

Before the agreement with Japanese steelmakers was announced, Qi Xiangdong, the vice chairman of China's Iron & Steel Association, said his country's steelmakers would not accept the ThyssenKrupp agreement as a benchmark for world iron- ore prices. World prices would be set by Shanghai-based Baosteel Group Corp., Tokyo-based Nippon Steel Corp. and Luxembourg-based Arcelor SA, he said.

Chinese steelmakers are the world's largest consumers of iron-ore, the main ingredient in steel.

The major steelmakers are in talks with Vale, Rio Tinto Ltd. and BHP Billiton Plc., the three largest iron-ore producers. Last year, steelmakers agreed to a 72 percent price increase for iron-ore sold under long-term contract. Spot, or non-contract prices are higher.

The Vale agreement announced today is with ``the major Japanese steelmakers,'' Vale's press office said, while declining to name the specific companies.

The agreement with Japan and ThyssenKrupp are for prices FOB or ``free on board,'' meaning they include delivery costs from the mines to port where they are loaded on ships for export.


----------



## shinobi346

Can't help thinking the price is where it was in March 2005. Hopefully when the prices are renegotiated, things will be on the upward trend again.


----------



## shinobi346

positive news today. China steelmakers may accept the 19% (or so) price rise.

http://couriermail.news.com.au/story/0,20797,19191076-3122,00.html


----------



## johnno261

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> Can't help thinking the price is where it was in March 2005. Hopefully when the prices are renegotiated, things will be on the upward trend again.




Appears MGX will again no longer be sub $1 soon. Price Increase will significantly change the bottom line forecasts,providing tonnage can get back on track!!
Expect to see revised valuation on MGX shortly!!


----------



## chicken

johnno261 said:
			
		

> Appears MGX will again no longer be sub $1 soon. Price Increase will significantly change the bottom line forecasts,providing tonnage can get back on track!!
> Expect to see revised valuation on MGX shortly!!



Looks as if next week..will be announcement...still holding...should see this one go higher


----------



## laurie

Hey Chicken mate when that happens I will be having Fried Eggs/Poached Eggs/Scramble Eggs for breakfeast at the Hilton every day    : 

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

> NEWS RELEASE
> Release Time IMMEDIATE
> Date 26 May 2006
> Number 19/06
> BHP BILLITON SETTLES IRON ORE PRICES WITH JAPANESE, KOREAN AND
> EUROPEAN STEEL CUSTOMERS
> BHP Billiton today announced it had reached agreement with a number of its Japanese,
> Korean and European steel customers on prices for contracted iron ore tonnage for the 2006
> contract year.
> Prices increased by 19% over prices negotiated in respect of the 2005 year across the range
> of lump and fines iron ore products supplied by BHP Billiton.




cheers laurie


----------



## 123enen

I am a little confused.

Magnetite blast furnace pellets have gone down 3%.
I understand this is the product that Asia Iron (MGX) propose to make as part of their 50/50 joint venture with Shougang. This is not good news is it?


----------



## johnno261

123enen said:
			
		

> I am a little confused.
> 
> Magnetite blast furnace pellets have gone down 3%.
> I understand this is the product that Asia Iron (MGX) propose to make as part of their 50/50 joint venture with Shougang. This is not good news is it?




This benefits Shougang and will make their profits slightly more profitable, whilst it is a little drop in the scheme of things as Pellets attract a premium price anyway!!


----------



## Porper

A little life in MGX the past few days.Not many went up today but this did.

I missed it and it was pointed out on another site.

A bit of divergence has taken place and the wave count is looking like we are in a wave 5. My very basic knowledge of Elliot Wave has given a different target to a certain nameless proffesional who is a damn site more knowledgable than myself.

I am not in due to the overall market sentiment but could be a goer.


----------



## Mumbank

Is this sell off a good thing or a bad thing ?


----------



## shinobi346

I think its  mistake they didnt retain at least a small amount. If it blossoms MGX would benefit from it as well.


----------



## el_ninj0

What are peoples thoughts on MGX now? Its started another downhill slide, yet again. It seems like everytime this one starts to go up, its pushed back down again. Im still very keen on this stock, and think its a good thing that Asia Iron was sold as it would have required significant resources to mine the Extension Hill Magnetite deposit. The company has alot more cash lying around now, and will be good in helping it develop other mining operations such as the Extension Hill Hematite operation.

However, from my view the chart suggests hard times ahead, and with the upcoming full year report which has already been significantly downgraded, im unsure if holding on at this point is worth it. Mabey an exit soon and a buy in when it hits 12 month lows again(if it happens).

I'd like to know other poeples thoughts about this.

Thanks.


----------



## markrmau

Basically iron ore is the material to be in, and I am sure mgx will get back up to $1-$1.1 over next few months.

I am disappointed with the magnetite sale package. The chinese basically forced them to offload for less than it's true value by not taking up the shogun option thing. 

Hopefully these Hui Sun investment people who have being buying up big time will get a board position to improve negotiating power with thier contrymen.

China is a very different place to do buissiness....


----------



## rederob

Mark
Am not sure if in a few months it will be over a dollar, but I do think before year's end a substantial upgrade is possible.
People tend to forget how long it takes to set up a mining company that extracts and ships and millions of tons of ore a year, and is still in the throes of growing to its potential.  
MGX may not have the diversity of OXR, but it still has a lot of expansion ahead, and should maintain solid cash flows at present iron ore prices.
One for the bottom drawer.


----------



## shinobi346

Nice rebound by MGX today. Up 4.5c. Those that purchased at 69c got a bargain!

I don't like like how they completely sold their share in Asian Holdings. I think they should have at least kept a foot in the tub so any gains there in future would benefit MGX as well. In the long term though I think MGX is still a good share _for me_ to own.


----------



## laurie

What they should have done is get a Royalty for every tonne sold   

cheers laurie


----------



## noirua

MGX are looking steady at lower levels, one to watch if confidence returns. The chart does point to an ominous 60 cent level, may be best to wait a little longer.


----------



## Sean K

Bounced off the 200d ma and those two doji's signal a reversal I think. But, it's only had a couple of days of consolidating. Bit early to tell. Today won't be a good indicator either. Everything should be green today after last night!


----------



## rederob

19% price rise announced after closing bell - effective from 1 April.
Should get a bounce tomorrow and stay higher, longer.


----------



## noirua

Still difficult to get a fix on where this one is going. Directors may have their eyes off the ball with the coming General Meeting to elect a Director they absolutely do not want.
The Director that Sun Hung Kai want on the Board is Mr John Wong, real name " Dato' Wong Peng Chong ".


----------



## shinobi346

"Mt Gibson launches Aztec takeover bid

July 24, 2006

Iron ore junior Mount Gibson Iron Ltd has launched a friendly takeover bid for Aztec Resources Ltd, which it says will create Australia's leading pure-play iron ore producer.

Aztec shareholders are being offered one new Mount Gibson share for every three Aztec shares held, which values Aztec shares at 26.3 cents each, based on the Mount Gibson volume weighted average price on July 21."


I'm a bit concerned over the number of outstanding MGX shares out there but this takeover looks welcome. It's better than what they part owned with Shoudang IMO. With Aztecs resources + MGX's mines, MGX could become a powerhouse of high grade iron ore.


----------



## laurie

Don't get too exicted it's only an offer   

cheers laurie


----------



## noirua

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> "Mt Gibson launches Aztec takeover bid
> 
> July 24, 2006
> 
> Iron ore junior Mount Gibson Iron Ltd has launched a friendly takeover bid for Aztec Resources Ltd, which it says will create Australia's leading pure-play iron ore producer.
> 
> Aztec shareholders are being offered one new Mount Gibson share for every three Aztec shares held, which values Aztec shares at 26.3 cents each, based on the Mount Gibson volume weighted average price on July 21."
> 
> 
> I'm a bit concerned over the number of outstanding MGX shares out there but this takeover looks welcome. It's better than what they part owned with Shoudang IMO. With Aztecs resources + MGX's mines, MGX could become a powerhouse of high grade iron ore.




MGX have fallen back to 75 cents and this takeover may give a chance to get in closer to 60 cents. Comments by " Aireview " concerning likely reductions in demand for iron ore from China and future weakness in the iron ore price, is likely to keep the MGX share price down.


----------



## haemitite

noirua said:
			
		

> MGX have fallen back to 75 cents and this takeover may give a chance to get in closer to 60 cents. Comments by " Aireview " concerning likely reductions in demand for iron ore from China and future weakness in the iron ore price, is likely to keep the MGX share price down.




Likely reductions in demand for iron ore in China ????

The iron ore price will come off in the medium term, say 3-4 years, but by that time BHPB and Rio will have an additional 80Mtpa of capacity online. To say nothing of CVRD. Mainly aimed at China

MGX have disposed of an very ordinary business - magnetite - at a very good time. The Pilbara is full of magnetite (BIF), if it was such a good proposition then why would such a mature resource industry not have taken it up by now (outside of Savage River in Tasmania).


----------



## 56gsa

What do people think of MGX's 3 for 1 takeover of ADY 

- will they need to inject more cash to sucure the bid?

- if successful will Cambria (?- the British firm with 19% 0f ADY) with 15% of MGX see this as opportunity to launch more bids and rationalise the projects (particularly in the Midwest of WA: MMX, MIS, GBG - MMX's infrastructure would look more realistic if it has more ore to support it..)

thoughts?

MGX @ .76 and ADY @ .24


----------



## doctorj

Just wanted to point out that it's AZR, not ADY.


----------



## haemitite

56gsa said:
			
		

> What do people think of MGX's 3 for 1 takeover of ADY
> 
> - will they need to inject more cash to sucure the bid?
> 
> - if successful will Cambria (?- the British firm with 19% 0f ADY) with 15% of MGX see this as opportunity to launch more bids and rationalise the projects (particularly in the Midwest of WA: MMX, MIS, GBG - MMX's infrastructure would look more realistic if it has more ore to support it..)
> 
> thoughts?
> 
> MGX @ .76 and ADY @ .24



Well, it did put a nice floor under the options a week before they expired. 

I think that AZR has the pick of the new iron ore projects, high grade iron ore, an experienced management team, no hauling/railing costs and no beneficiation. Production will start late this year and already another iron ore price rise is been mooted from April 1 2007

I intend to hold my 250K share parcel unless the offer gets to at least 30c. At least MGX have divested their magnetite holdings, making their script more palatable, but I'd prefer to take my chances with AZR on a standalone basis

I don't see much benefit for shareholders in iron ore consolidation.


----------



## noirua

There is a radio broadcast with Mr Luke Tomkin, Managing Director, at 12-30pm NSW today, it is a company update:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/MGX/1002/15453

MGX still seem to still be flirting with the 60 cent level that shows up very clearly in the 2 year chart.


----------



## noirua

MGX are back to the end of February 2005 price at just under 70 cents.

The six month chart shows a strong downtrend  that MGX are unlikely to break out of for a long time. The Aztec build up of stock and eventual takeover has taken its toll on Mount Gibson Iron. 

Tallering Peak is a current mine that has been producing iron ore at the 3 million tonne per annum rate since Jan 2006, a record. This is compared with original estimates of 1.5 to 2 mtpa. Exports are to China. Two other mines, including Mount Gibson, will together eventually add 6 mtpa to production.

The iron ore price, from hereon in, is the cloud over MGX and other iron ore miners.


----------



## shinobi346

SP is slowly going back up since they made a bid for Aztec. 

Article on BHP/RioTinto which should mean good news for MGX as well.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=35B4817C-17A4-1130-F5BC7E42DE80DF8E


----------



## Lucstar

MGX seems to have successfully broken out of its 6 month downward trend. The resistance line has been penetrated. From a technical point of view, MGX should be on its way up from here. Any opinions?


----------



## nioka

Lucstar said:
			
		

> MGX seems to have successfully broken out of its 6 month downward trend. The resistance line has been penetrated. From a technical point of view, MGX should be on its way up from here. Any opinions?



They are increasing their share in AZR and are going up on their back. It proves the point that the directors of AZR have been stressing.


----------



## noirua

nioka said:
			
		

> They are increasing their share in AZR and are going up on their back. It proves the point that the directors of AZR have been stressing.




MGX look as if they are in recovery mode and worth looking at.


----------



## Lucstar

Well its definitely on my watch list.


----------



## noirua

Bought some stock this morning hoping MGX will continue on up. Forecast production levels of 6mtpa are impressive.


----------



## shinobi346

Article in the Courier Mail about China fighting back against rising mineral and metal prices in Australia by increasing production of their own.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20719491-3122,00.html

One statement made stuck out as good news for MGX.

"Mr Singer said the outlook for the country's highest-value export, iron ore, remained healthy, with Chinese miners unable to compete on grade."


----------



## champ2003

noirua said:
			
		

> Bought some stock this morning hoping MGX will continue on up. Forecast production levels of 6mtpa are impressive.




Hi Noirua,
Where is the announcement that states a forecast of 6mtpa. As far as i can see they are forecasting 3mtpa for 2006/2007?

Champ2003


----------



## nioka

champ2003 said:
			
		

> Hi Noirua,
> Where is the announcement that states a forecast of 6mtpa. As far as i can see they are forecasting 3mtpa for 2006/2007?
> 
> Champ2003



Maybe they are counting the rest as coming from the cheap takeover of AZR?


----------



## noirua

Gallagher Holdings have announced an increase in their interest in MGX to 19.89%.


----------



## noirua

Announcement by Cambrian Mining that will eventually raise MGX production to 9.5 mtpa:  http://www.cambrianmining.com/News/...brian_to_Sell_Iron_Ore_Stake/news.aspx?id=610


----------



## nioka

noirua said:
			
		

> Gallagher Holdings have announced an increase in their interest in MGX to 19.89%.



Gallagher is a holding Company for a Russian Company. Between Gallagher and Shanghai us aussies won't be left with much of the business.


----------



## shinobi346

MGX now own more than 50% of Aztec. Hope the end of the takeover bid is near so MGX will stop moving sideways.


----------



## markrmau

I was surprised to see it drop today (admittedly low volume). Everyone is talking about more consolidation in junior iron ore companies. Plenty of juicy offerings: MMX, MGX, GRR. I think the russians might just jump in and secure supplies ahead of india and china...


----------



## marc1

Trading halt in place at the moment.
Does anyone have any thoughts on MGX? Another take over on the cards?
cheers marc1.


----------



## Dabas

I think it has to do with the AZR takeover.
They are in a trading halt too.


----------



## marc1

Dabas said:
			
		

> I think it has to do with the AZR takeover.
> They are in a trading halt too.



Thank you Dabas, I should have checked that myself.  
cheers marc1


----------



## Dabas

AZR board has capitulated and reversed their previous anti-MGX recommendation to its shareholders.

For the time being both shares are dropping in price....

Dabas


----------



## chicken

marc1 said:
			
		

> Trading halt in place at the moment.
> Does anyone have any thoughts on MGX? Another take over on the cards?
> cheers marc1.



Trading halt lifted just bought some more...looks like deal done...MGX next move into ASX200.... valuation $1.25+.....should start moving as instos which buy in the ASX200 will have to buy...good luck to all


----------



## laurie

After all of this time chicken lets hope we can put the past behind and move on

cheers laurie


----------



## nioka

chicken said:
			
		

> Trading halt lifted just bought some more...looks like deal done...MGX next move into ASX200.... valuation $1.25+.....should start moving as instos which buy in the ASX200 will have to buy...good luck to all



It is the AZR holders who are going to miss out. The Mgx holders will get the benefit of the AZR production about to start. The foreign investors will be the main ones to gain (And another aussie company gets sold out cheap).


----------



## noirua

Once MGX get the Aztec problem out of the way the stock should move on strongly from here.


----------



## nioka

noirua said:
			
		

> Once MGX get the Aztec problem out of the way the stock should move on strongly from here.



If it does it will be because of the value of AZR production. I wish AZR could have the problem of Mt Gibson out of the way. My AZR shares are not for sale yet.


----------



## Broadside

nioka said:
			
		

> If it does it will be because of the value of AZR production. I wish AZR could have the problem of Mt Gibson out of the way. My AZR shares are not for sale yet.




relax nioka you get paid a premium for the AZR shares and your new MGX shares will also get taken out by another takeover, just a matter of time


----------



## haemitite

What premium may that be?

I don't intend to accept either, firstly as being a PMM minority holder has worked out pretty nicely, secondly as even if I wanted to accept I wouldn't till I knew there was script roll over relief.

My understanding is that any AZR shareholder who exercised the 17c options mid-year will be facing full capital gains tax on those exercised options unless the 80% acceptance condition (for rollover relief) is met


----------



## noirua

MGX have increased their holding in Aztec Resources to 73.17%.


----------



## noirua

noirua said:
			
		

> MGX have increased their holding in Aztec Resources to 73.17%.




The move to an 87.15% holding in Aztec puts the 90% target all but in the bag.


----------



## chicken

noirua said:
			
		

> The move to an 87.15% holding in Aztec puts the 90% target all but in the bag.



soon to see $1+....as its becoming clear takeover just a matter of time...good luck to all holders....


----------



## noirua

chicken said:
			
		

> soon to see $1+....as its becoming clear takeover just a matter of time...good luck to all holders....




Not sure about the takeover bit, haven't heard anything. On the matter of price you may well be proved to be spot on. Good Luck.


----------



## haemitite

I'm a bit surprised that the retail investors have so quickly fallen into line behind the directors given the protracted and often bitter takeover

AZR may be 50% up on the pre-bid price but that probably would have happened with first shipments anyhow. I repeat that the AZR directors put up a woeful defence.

But looks like my AZR stock will soon be Mt Gibsons, I will take some profits at that stage.

Maybe PMM are worth a few more, they are trading at about the same PE as ZFX. Remarkable for a low risk commodity like iron ore.


----------



## noirua

Russian Iron Ore Baron, Alisher Usmanov, who has built a holding of 7% in Aztec, is thought to be holding out against MGX's hopes of reaching a 90% holding.


----------



## haemitite

Thanks for that

I was surprised that MGX had made so little headway in the last couple of days, your post adds some background

Still holding my 250,000 AZR at this stage


----------



## chicken

haemitite said:
			
		

> Thanks for that
> 
> I was surprised that MGX had made so little headway in the last couple of days, your post adds some background
> 
> Still holding my 250,000 AZR at this stage



MGX now owns 88.89%.....so only 1.11% to go....looks like its in the bag..


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

MGX selling RMI, sold 5m at 0.055

Interesting


----------



## shinobi346

Locking in profits maybe? Looking at the charts, it is at a all time high.


----------



## chicken

Takeover is now on..MGX got 90.08%...rest is compulsory acquisition....so its virtually complete..shouild drive this share through $1+ quickly......


----------



## chicken

chicken said:
			
		

> Takeover is now on..MGX got 90.08%...rest is compulsory acquisition....so its virtually complete..should drive this share through $1+ quickly......



Only went up by 3cents....but should gain traction VERY fast now...as The Russians will want more shares, the Chinese...and perhaps some Aussies will buy more....and I forgot..THE FUNDS will be BUYING BIG...as MGX will be a much larger company now...looks like that Appointment of that one director of WMC knows his stuff....its a goer now......I read somewhere that the Chinese are building the rail...for a lot of the midwest infrastructure...they might have to import their own labour to build the rail line....I own MGX shares..looks like payday soon.....


----------



## Devil_Star

Right. I believe it will surpass $1 in a week or two when everyone comes back from holiday and realises the hot spot. Think all bullish news surround MGX: takeover success, iron ore price rise, backing from Russian & chinese


----------



## chicken

Devil_Star said:
			
		

> Right. I believe it will surpass $1 in a week or two when everyone comes back from holiday and realises the hot spot. Think all bullish news surround MGX: takeover success, iron ore price rise, backing from Russian & chinese



Breaking out now............


----------



## noirua

Moving on to 94 cents this morning as the bid problems vanish. Fresh air, fair winds and blue sky ahead; feelings are this was a good deal for MGX as Aztec fall at last.


----------



## haemitite

Yes indeed.

AZR is providing a cheap entry point into MGX

Picked up another 20,000 AZR today at 29.5 when MGX were 0.94. A nice 5%+ arbitrage.

MGX is well positioned now, surprised that PMM has been so static with the recent rapid price settlement pointing to strong prices over the next settlement periods.


----------



## Kipp

haemitite said:
			
		

> Yes indeed.
> 
> AZR is providing a cheap entry point into MGX
> 
> Picked up another 20,000 AZR today at 29.5 when MGX were 0.94. A nice 5%+ arbitrage.
> 
> MGX is well positioned now, surprised that PMM has been so static with the recent rapid price settlement pointing to strong prices over the next settlement periods.



Haemitite do you hold PMM?  Care to add something to the PMM thread (which itself has been static for the past year and half) it looks like a goer to me as well.  But I'm still struggling to ascertain the mine life (it was not either of their last reports) assuming it is 15+ years they look like a good buy to me, but at the moment I'm on the sidelines.

Have to laugh now at the AZR director now upon MGX inital takeover offer.  Labelling it as "opportunistic".  When they were offering 24c a share (as MGX was then 72c) when AZR was trading at 8c!  3x the price (though now nearly 4x) is still an "opportunistic" offer, lol.


----------



## Mofra

RIO Ore price increase at the upper end of expectations should only work in favour of MGX as well, despite being some way off expected peak production.


----------



## haemitite

Kipp said:
			
		

> Haemitite do you hold PMM? Care to add something to the PMM thread (which itself has been static for the past year and half) it looks like a goer to me as well. But I'm still struggling to ascertain the mine life (it was not either of their last reports) assuming it is 15+ years they look like a good buy to me, but at the moment I'm on the sidelines.



 Yes, I have PMM

I bought two 15,000 parcels for under 1.00 in 2001, got out for around 2.50 ...... a little early. Partly as I knew that the internal company view back then was that the share pice was highish.

The 71% price hike in 2004 was a huge surprise, so I've bought back into PMM recently at the current levels as I don't see iron ore fading soon. Plus PMM presumably are looking at opportunties in the Pilbara now that the two big railway lines are beginning to be prised open

BTW, your maths on AZR is out. They were 20c or so when the bid was made, 30c today. They arguably would have got to 30c at first production so I do agree that the MGX bid was opportunistic. Shocker of a defence though.


----------



## Kipp

haemitite said:
			
		

> BTW, your maths on AZR is out. They were 20c or so when the bid was made, 30c today. They arguably would have got to 30c at first production so I do agree that the MGX bid was opportunistic. Shocker of a defence though.



They were 20c???  Really... my apologies then.  Terrible memory, terrible research.  PMM look cheap, but the charts don't look that appealing right now... sort of punting on picking the bottom, as their's not clear indication that it's broken it's downtrend just yet.  Last post that has nothing to do with MGX I promise.

P.S.  mate.. you can hardly feel bad about selling for 150% gain.  As they say hindsight is 20/20.


----------



## noirua

MGX have confirmed, in the ASX ann, that they have fixed iron ore prices at 9.5% above current levels and that they come into force from 1st April 2007.


----------



## Kipp

noirua said:
			
		

> MGX have confirmed, in the ASX ann, that they have fixed iron ore prices at 9.5% above current levels and that they come into force from 1st April 2007.



Yeah... once CVRD made the agreement with Baosteel- the precendent was set.  RIO also 9.5% increase.  MGX/PMM etc just have to follow the lead of the big boys I suppose...


----------



## astojic86

MGX is looking huge at the moment, in my opinion there is a take over coming in the next 2 days.

Someone just bought 20 million shares. Thats like 5% of the company I think. 

It is 20 times the average volume for a normal day,

Someone is buying on the low, I think there is a huge announcement coming. 

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=349981406&size=o

Have a look at the graph LOOK AT THE VOLUME TODAY.


----------



## Dabas

There was a large order placed:

Time: 14:42:43
Price: 0.87
Volume: 18,458,960
Value: $16,059,300.00
Condition: XTSPOS

Dabas


----------



## Caliente

smells like an insto to me? it also smells good ^_^

Looks like iron ore is going to Fe/ature in 2007.

I'm a bit torn really because Merrill Lynch has been going bonkers over nickel. 

Apart from MGX and SRK what else is looking pretty?


----------



## chansw

From The West Australian today

*The Russians are coming*
8th January 2007, 7:45 WST
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=18090

Russian eyes are expected to start scouring Western Australia’s booming resources industry for fresh opportunities next week when representatives of Russian iron baron Alisher Usmanov hit town for a first hand look at the billionaire’s newlygained beach-head in the local iron ore sector. 

Mr Usmanov’s London investment vehicle, Gallagher Holdings, became a key player in WA’s iron ore sector in November when it backed Mid-West miner Mount Gibson Iron’s $300 million takeover of Kimberley rival Aztec Resources. 

The move delivered the Russian oligarch an 18 per cent stake in the fast growing miner, and in the process outpointed Chinese steel giant Shougang which has 13 per cent. 

Reputedly boasting a personal fortune of more than $US3 billion ($3.8 billion), Mr Usmanov is one of the most powerful businessmen in Russia as chairman and major shareholder of Metalloinvest, the nation’s largest iron ore producer and fifth biggest steel maker. 

He also runs the investment arm of Russia’s national energy group, Gazprom, and acquired influential national daily newspaper Kommersant, underlining his close links to the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Mt Gibson Iron boss Luke Tonkin told WestBusiness that he had spoken only briefly to the company’s new Russian benefactor since an introductory meeting with Mr Usmanov in Moscow in late November. 

However, he revealed Mt Gibson’s biggest shareholder would be visiting WA to meet with the company in a matter of days. 

“We’ve spoken to the Russians only for them to say congratulations on this takeover,” Mr Tonkin said. “But they are coming to see us midway through this month.” 

Mr Tonkin did not reveal whether his Russian visitors would be canvassing other investment opportunities in Australia. 

However, Mr Usmanov’s $120 million plunge on Mt Gibson is widely viewed as just the first step in a broader strategy to build a substantial presence in Australia’s resources industry and gain greater direct exposure to China’s booming economy and diversify outside Russia’s borders. 

Even before his move on Mt Gibson, Mr Usmanov was one of several overseas groups interested in acquiring a cornerstone stake in Andrew Forrest’s Pilbara iron ore developer, Fortescue Metals Group. 

However, he was outgunned by US investment fund Leucadia National, which snapped up a 10 per cent stake for $US400 million in equity and loans that will net it more than $1 billion in repayments over 13 years. 

And last month, Kommersant revealed that Metalloinvest was eyeing a half stake in Dharkan Metallurgical in Mongolia, which owns the rights to extensive high grade iron ore and processing facilities across the border from China. 

Mr Usmanov has already indicated that he expects Mt Gibson to provide a strategic window to Australia’s resources industry. 

Last month, it was only support from Mr Usmanov which enabled Mt Gibson to defeat an attempted boardroom takeover by Chinese shareholders, including Shougang, at the company’s annual meeting. 

Mr Tonkin said he had since spoken to one of those Chinese parties, Shougang-backed Shanghai Merchant Holdings, to “clearly articulate” the company’s business strategy, including its belief that there are few attractive opportunities for further consolidation in the current market. 

Shanghai Merchant has previously expressed its desire for Mt Gibson to spearhead further consolidation in the sector. 

“We articulated that . . . Mt Gibson Iron is not going to invest in or take over companies it doesn’t see vae in,” he said. “We are not going to consolidate for consolidation’s sake.”


----------



## astojic86

MGX MGX


IRON ORE STOCKPILES LOWER IN CHINA 

http://www.interfax.cn/displayarticle.asp?aid=20393&slug=IRON ORE


----------



## Sean K

astojic86 said:
			
		

> MGX MGX
> 
> IRON ORE STOCKPILES LOWER IN CHINA
> 
> http://www.interfax.cn/displayarticle.asp?aid=20393&slug=IRON ORE



Yes, 0.08% lower than last week. That's not very exciting to me. Is that significant astojic? 

Big volume on MGX today and it went down 1 % or so. That's not normally good is it?


----------



## astojic86

lol yea iron ore thing insigificant but thought i would post it anyway   

watch it in the next few days see what happens.  it was a cross at 87 cents which is higher then the current price.


----------



## marc1

kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, 0.08% lower than last week. That's not very exciting to me. Is that significant astojic?
> 
> Big volume on MGX today and it went down 1 % or so. That's not normally good is it?



Agree kennas, big vol down sp would not normally give you the ring of confidence in a stock but the market was a sea of red today so 1% isn't to bad. 
Lets see what the russkies buy tomorrow.
I'm in late on this one though, thought i'd make some quick beer money just before christmas. But turning in to very a dry argument !!!!!!  
Holding 5k@ .83
Cheers


----------



## Porper

kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, 0.08% lower than last week. That's not very exciting to me. Is that significant astojic?
> 
> Big volume on MGX today and it went down 1 % or so. That's not normally good is it?




Agree, there is some good old ramping going on with MGX, however it did close well off it's lows on huge volume so there were buyers willing to pay up.

A Doji close with high volume is usually a sign of a reversal (dramatic) so tomorrow will be interesting.If I was a bit more of a risk taker I would bet these will reverse tomorrow, of course Gold and the Dow could get hammered tonight and it could go down 10 %


----------



## chansw

marc1 said:
			
		

> I'm in late on this one though, thought i'd make some quick beer money just before christmas. But turning in to very a dry argument !!!!!!
> Holding 5k@ .83
> Cheers



If I remember correctly, the Russians paid $23.33 million for 77.8 million Aztec shares (around $0.3 per share) from Australian Royalties Corp. That valued MGX at $0.9 per share. Hopefully, your beer will turn into nice champagne.


----------



## bvbfan

Could the trade be from AZR holders exiting and perhaps some funds entering
Don't think it will happen until AZR is bedded down into the company


----------



## astojic86

um 

mgx doesn't mine Gold - and mgx has locked in price rise for another year, there is no reason for this stock to go down, they are about to start shipping ore from azr's mine.

so commodity prices shouldn't affect this thing.


----------



## Sean K

astojic86 said:
			
		

> um
> 
> mgx doesn't mine Gold - and mgx has locked in price rise for another year, there is no reason for this stock to go down, they are about to start shipping ore from azr's mine
> 
> so commodity prices shouldn't affect this thing



While hedging in the short term might support it, any commodity price depreciation or appreciation will effect all companies related to that particular resource. If there was no reaosn for the stock to go down, why is it off it's highs?

I am not being negative to this stock, just trying to keep things objective. Blanket statements saying this stock will not be effected by market conditions are inflammatory.


----------



## astojic86

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/47569/Sundance-plans-3bn-African-iron-ore-project


Jones predicts strong iron ore; Sundance approves $3bn plan
8-January-07 by Mark Beyer
Latest News

Sundance Resources chairman George Jones has predicted an 8 to 10 per cent increase in iron ore prices in 2008, which would help to attract support for the company's $3.1 billion Mbalam iron ore project in west Africa.
Mr Jones, who also chairs aspiring Mid West iron ore miner Gindalbie Metals, was speaking at Sundance's extraordinary general meeting today.
The meeting approved a $30 million capital raising, which will allow Sundance to accelerate its pre-feasibility study and exploration program.
Mr Jones said he joined Sundance last year because of "the potential quality and scale" of the Mbalam project, located in the Republic of Cameroon in west Africa.
He believes the strength of the global iron ore market augurs well for the company.
"I expect iron ore prices to again increase in 2008, probably by around 8 - 10%, on the strength of the continuing and growing demand for high quality iron ore from China and other Asian and European markets," Mr Jones said.
The Mbalam project requires extensive infrastructure, including power and water to the mine site, construction of a 490 km rail link to port storage and export facilities, and development of a new port facility on the southern coast of Cameroon.
"Indicative capital cost estimates for the project are in the range of US$2,460 million (A$3.1 billion) for the establishment of a long-term operation producing 35 million tonnes pa of direct ship hematite," he said.

The company's announcement is pasted below:

SUNDANCE ACCELERATES WEST AFRICAN IRON ORE PROJECT AFTER COMPLETING $30M PLACEMENT
SHAREHOLDER APPROVAL RECEIVED FOR SECOND TRANCHE OF $30M PLACEMENT

International iron ore company Sundance Resources Ltd (ASX: SDL) has announced the commencement of an intensive 2007 work program at its flagship Mbalam Iron Ore Project in West Africa after today receiving shareholder approval to complete the second tranche of a $30 million capital raising. The substantial raising will enable Sundance to accelerate its pre-feasibility study and exploration program to be carried out on the Mbalam Project.

At a shareholder meeting in Perth today (8 January 2007), approval was received for the issue of 219,812,500 ordinary shares at 8c each, to raise $17.6 million. The first tranche, comprising the issue of 155,187,500 ordinary shares at 8c each, was completed on 30 November 2006 under the Company's 15% placement capacity and in accordance with ASX Listing Rules.

The placement has resulted in the introduction of a number of leading Australian and international institutional shareholders to the Company.

Speaking at the shareholder meeting today, Sundance's Chairman, Mr George Jones, said the Company was now well funded to pursue an aggressive pre-feasibility drilling program with the aim of confirming the potential of the Mbalam Project to support a resource of 1,000 million tonnes of high-grade hematite at Mbalam.

"The Mbalam Project is potentially a world-class hematite project, strategically located midway between European and Asian markets, and our focus will be on enhancing the value of this asset as rapidly as possible," Mr Jones said. "With continuing strong demand in the iron ore sector - as evidenced by the recent 9.5% price increase accepted by Chinese steel mills - we believe that there is a significant opportunity to develop a large scale, high grade iron ore project."

"The resource defined by previous exploration has shown that the Mbalam Project, which is located in the Republic of Cameroon, has the potential to be at the forefront of a new generation of major iron ore projects," Mr Jones added.

"The important message to get across is that the Mbalam Project is located within one of the world's emerging iron ore provinces in West Africa. It is in the same region and geologically similar to the US$3 billion Belinga Project under development by China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation in Gabon, 170km from Sundance's Mbalam Project, and other large iron ore projects currently under evaluation in Guinea. Sundance has a significant potential opportunity to develop a large-scale iron ore export business, delivering large volumes of high-grade hematite ore to international markets".

'With installation of our new expanded management team, headed up by Don Lewis, we are well placed to unlock the true value of this project over the coming 12 months," Mr Jones said.

Sundance plans to use the funds raised in the placement to expand its pre-feasibility drilling work over the 875sq km Exploration Permit No. 92 held by Sundance subsidiary, Cam Iron S.A.

"Our key focus this year will be the completion of an expanded exploration program as part of our Pre-Feasibility Study of the Mbalam Iron Ore Project. This will initially target the Mbarga prospect as identified in previous exploration by the United Nations Development Fund. This previous work identified an Inferred Resource of 800 million tonnes iron ore, including 218 million tonnes grading more than 60% Fe, based on a very limited drilling program covering just 2.7km of strike length within our Exploration Permit area", Mr Lewis said.

"Airborne magnetic and radiometric surveying recently completed by Sundance have identified 26 highly prospective magnetic anomalies and targets, at depth and at surface, consistent with the previous drilling work by the UN. The data suggests in excess of 35km of prospective iron formations within the permit area".

Sundance plans to mobilise diamond and RC drill rigs to site as soon as possible to confirm the potential of the Mbarga prospect. "Our initial focus will be to confirm a resource of 300 million tonnes of hematite grading more than 60% Fe from this prospect. The next stage of work will aim to expand the resource base to at least 1,000 million tonnes of high grade hematite by targeted exploration of high priority targets identified from our aeromagnetic surveys," Mr Lewis said.

The pre-feasibility study being undertaken by Sundance will focus on the exploration program but will also include preliminary engineering, infrastructure and environmental planning required to progress project development. The expanded Pre-Feasibility Study is scheduled for completion by end 2007.


----------



## astojic86

kennas said:
			
		

> While hedging in the short term might support it, any commodity price depreciation or appreciation will effect all companies related to that particular resource. If there was no reaosn for the stock to go down, why is it off it's highs?
> 
> I am not being negative to this stock, just trying to keep things objective. Blanket statements saying this stock will not be effected by market conditions are inflammatory.




You are right if commodities are down this stock will be affected but I think it should be slightly less affected as this company hedges.

Also chinese can not mine ore grades that we have in Australia, they cannot get them that is why they have to accept price hikes all the time.


----------



## astojic86

Japan Accepts PRICE RISE AS WELL good for IRON ORE INDUSTRY        

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/01/07/afx3306551.html

Japan steelmakers face 80 bln yen in added costs for iron ore in FY07 - report
01.07.07, 10:40 AM ET


TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - Japan's steelmakers are finishing up with negotiations for fiscal 2007 purchases of iron ore, and the agreed-to prices will increase their procurement costs by an estimated 80 bln yen, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported.

Iron ore is sold in three forms: powder, lump and pellets. More than 60 pct of the iron ore procured by Japan's steelmakers is in the form of powder.

Nippon Steel Corp (other-otc: NISTF.PK - news - people ) and the other four major Japanese steelmakers have agreed to a 9.5 pct increase in the price of powdered iron ore from Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (nyse: RIO - news - people ) SA for fiscal 2007 shipments, the paper said in its online edition.

The five steelmakers are expected to also soon finalize an agreement with Rio Doce on a 9.5 pct hike in the price of lump and a 5.28 pct rise in the price of pellets, the report said.

These prices are comparable to the prices already negotiated by the Brazilian firm with leading steelmakers in China and Italy, it said.

Japan's steelmakers are said to be ready to agree to similar price hikes in their negotiations with BHP Billiton (nyse: BBL - news - people ) and Rio Tinto, the paper added.

China's surging demand for iron ore has sent prices upward since fiscal 2003. In the four years through fiscal 2006, Japan's steel industry shouldered cumulative extra costs of 2.5 trln yen, according to the report.


----------



## surfie

All small aust iron ore miners are in bed with either russians, chinese, koreans etc.  The name of the game for the foreigners is buy a big slice of the aussie company to guarantee supply for decades to come and at same time avoid being captive of the BHP's of this world.  

For example: MMX in WA midwest starts ore shipments this month but POSCO (Huge Korean steel mill)  bought 10% of the company at bargain basement price subject to guarantee of 10 million tonnes / year supply of iron ore from 2011 onwards.  This will be 40% of MMX total production when fully operational.

They are all doing these deals.  And that is why the share price like MGX hits its high in such a dramatic way.  

If its good enough for POSCO its good enough for me.

Because iron ore price is fixed it is not subject to commodities down turn until next negotiations in 12 months.  For now they enjoy the 9.5% increase from April.

For companies likw MGX, MIS and MMX it is hard to see any losses for shareholders who get in AND HOLD ON FOR THE LONG TERM.  The big profits will be made by holders not short term traders.  These companies are actually about to produce something other than pie [or yellow cake] in the sky.  That is why the WA government will approve a $1 billion rail link from the mine sites and build a new port just north of Geraldton.

I have been in MMX for 1 year and continuing to accumulate on weakness.  No selling for me - yet.


----------



## simonb

Second Quarter Activities Report was posted by MGX today... What do people think? any surprises?

On reading the report, despite 'record profits' it appears that they were certainly less than predicted. 

I am not sure about how much of a concern the EPA's recomendations regarding the Extension Hill Magnetite Project (recomendation about classification of adjacent land to the proposal site being secured as a class A reserve and that MGX apply adequate management resources to this reserve) affects MGX's proposal.

Would be interested in others expectations for this stock over the next 3-6 months.

cheers


----------



## TheAbyss

MGX Volumes on Commsec state in excess of 50 Million. Can anyone confirm if this is correct? 50 million is way over usual trading pattern.


----------



## redandgreen

50million confirmed. 
Insto buying maybe....


----------



## TheAbyss

Checked, the volume today was a tick over 50 million. The last time this stock hit volumes of this level was Feb/ March 05 when the sp went from 20c to 92 cents.

Would appreciate it if someone could offer up some thoughts as to what the lift in volume might be about? Perhaps a stakeholder moving in to lock in some iron ore supplies at a good rate?


----------



## redandgreen

It is due for a run sometime soon... methinks.


----------



## TheAbyss

The 78 cents early today was the lowest this stock has been since October last year and they do have a pile of Ore under them so perhaps a company has been waiting to take a bite and figured this was as low as it was going to go (See Surfie's post earlier this month)?

Instos another possibility or maybe YT is about to start a PR campaign


----------



## bvbfan

48,373,197*




5.5*$41,117,217

portfolio crossing I'd say but too lazy to check it out


----------



## BSD

It was a Special - not a portfolio

Above market at the time 

Great stuff


----------



## benwex

I think it has to do with the issueing of MGX shares from the AZR take over.....


----------



## nioka

benwex said:
			
		

> I think it has to do with the issueing of MGX shares from the AZR take over.....



That would not be a trade on the asx. Watch for an announcement of a notice of change in substantial holdings. Glad I did not hold when they "stole" my small stake in AZR. If you check the intraday trading you will see that there was very few sales near the closing price which was after 4PM and was brokers trading. AZR was a good business ruined by a worse one.


----------



## TheAbyss

Thanks for the valuable insight everyone. A few more questions if i may? Thanks in advance for the assist.

If this is a non event and/or negative for the shareholders (which i am one of), why is the average share purchase price for todays volumes so much higher than the share price has been of late?

The 50,005,737  units sold at a value of $42,445,206  which equates to an average of 84.88 cents per share. My point being that if a large lump  of shares were done at off market at a discounted price then that would lower the average, not elevate it.  

Why so high compared to the earlier share price today (79.5c)? The shares haven't been at 84 cents since mid december. Would they have worked out an average share price for an off market deal last year and implemented at that price now?

Any advice appreciated and please forgive my ignorance


----------



## markrmau

It is a fantastic trade. $41M (AUD)

The 'conditions' code is XTSPOS

XT=Crossed Trade 
SP=Block Special Sale (Special crossings where the consideration is greater than $1M)
OS=Overseas

It happened just before 3.44pm

Look at what the market did when punters noticed.... (the graph below does NOT include the large trade)


----------



## markrmau

Looks like someone wants to buy MGX, MMX and CSM to form a mega steel conglomerate to take on RIO and Xstrata


----------



## fma007

LOL on the day i give up on this stock, and sell out at 80c this happens.. gotta love it.


----------



## noirua

Shougang Holdings have raised their stake in MGX from 13.11% to 18.99%.  This is due to the compulsory acquisition of Aztec Resources and some on market buying.


----------



## nioka

fma007 said:
			
		

> LOL on the day i give up on this stock, and sell out at 80c this happens.. gotta love it.



Aren't you lucky when you look at it now. Imagine how low the price could have fallen if they hadn't cashed in with the takeover of AZR and what the AZR shareholders have missed out on by not holding out until production commenced.


----------



## noirua

nioka said:
			
		

> Aren't you lucky when you look at it now. Imagine how low the price could have fallen if they hadn't cashed in with the takeover of AZR and what the AZR shareholders have missed out on by not holding out until production commenced.




Yes!


----------



## simonb

So whats the story...? What do people expect of this stock over the short - medium term? I bought this stock at 0.835 months back on advice from a broker. I dont have too much invested (5k) but it is my largest investment in a portfolio of 13k. I had a time frame of until the start of the next financial year before needing to cash in at least half of my 13k investment. Do people have expectations of this stock over the next 6 months?

Cheers


----------



## mmmmining

MGX is doomed at this moment because of the APAC, formerly Shanghai Merchants Holding. It represents Shougang in China. APAC can only bring bad luck to MGX.

APAC is a middleman with very limited credibility. It used to deal with HAV, signed MOU, etc, etc. and suddenly pull out without any reason, made HAV SP declined over 6month. 

Now it comes to MGX. You just need to wait for 5 more months...


----------



## shinobi346

Shanghai Merchants Holdings only changed names quite recently  (4th Jan) . Before that, it went into receivership.

This might have had something to do with it:
http://english.sina.com/china/1/2007/0120/101442.html


----------



## noirua

The Standard gives quite recent news about Shanghai Merchant Holdings:  http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=36729&sid=11864294&con_type=1

MGX produced record half year profits of $23 million in January. Unfortunately, this was about $6 million less than forecast. This fact is more likely to be the reason the stock price has not advanced.


----------



## camaybay

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> Shanghai Merchants Holdings only changed names quite recently  (4th Jan) . Before that, it went into receivership.
> This might have had something to do with it:
> http://english.sina.com/china/1/2007/0120/101442.html




Former Shanghai tycoon charged again  
2007-01-20 13:32:46 Xinhua English   
SHANGHAI, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) -- Former Shanghai tycoon Zhou Zhengyi has been charged with bribery and forging VAT receipts, just months after completing a three-year prison sentence, local authorities said on Sunday. 
Zhou, former president of Shanghai-based property firm Nongkai Development Group, was released from prison in May after completing a three-year sentence for fraud and manipulating the stock market. 
But five months later, in October, Zhou was detained as prosecutors found new clues of crime and was arrested by the municipal procuratorate on Sunday. 

A further investigation on Zhou's case is underway.
Zhou, 45, who started business as a teenager in a wonton noodleshop and graduated to number 11 on Forbes' list of 100 richest mainlanders, was the majority shareholder of the Hong Kong-listed Shanghai Land Holdings and Shanghai Merchants Holdings. 
In 2002, Forbes estimated Zhou's wealth at about 320 million U.S. dollars.
Also known as Chau Ching-ngai, he was convicted and sentenced at the Shanghai No. One Intermediate People's Court in June 2004 for falsifying registered capital reports and share price manipulation. 
Zhou was sentenced to two years and six months in prison for manipulating share prices and one year for falsifying registered capital reports. He was totally sentenced to three years in prison, according to the verdict of the Shanghai Number One Intermediate People's Court. 
Nongkai Development Group was ordered to pay a total fine of 40million yuan (5.12 million dollars), including 33 million yuan (some 4.23 million US dollars) for manipulating share prices and seven million yuan (some 0.89 million US dollars) for falsifying registered capital reports. 
According to the verdict, from June 1999 to May 2003, Zhou Zhengyi was found manipulating stock prices through illegally buying and selling tradable shares of an engineering company in east China's Xuzhou city, owing 95.93 percent of the corporate shares at the peak time, which resulted in an unreasonable jump of402 percent of the stock's price. 
From October 1998 to April 2000, Zhou was also accused of fabricating Nongkai's paid-up capital from the original 100 million yuan (approximately 13 million dollars) to 800 million yuan (some 102.5 million dollars) with falsified capital surplus. 
In 2002, Nongkai group, having 4,000 employees, earned 540 million US dollars of sales and paid 12 million dollars in taxes.
Nongkai has four holding companies listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, namely the Hainiao development Ltd., the Yingxiong holding company, the Shanghai Merchant holding company and the Shanghai Land holding company. 
Over the past three years, Nongkai's three companies have sold their shares or stopped their trading in stock market. Zhou and his Nongkai only has 26 percent shares of Hainiao. 
Mao Yuping, wife of Zhou Zhengyi, was sentenced to 32 months in prison last April by the Hong Kong District Court on charges of conspiracy of defrauding letters of credits worth 49 million HK dollars (6.3 million U.S. dollars). 
Mao, 43, was charged by the Independent Commission Against Corruption for 12 counts of conspiracy to defraud letters of credits worth more than 49 million HK dollars based on bogus business transactions. 
Persons involved in Zhou's case also include Tang Haigen, brother of Zhou's sister-in-law. Tang, former president of Hainiao, played an important role in Zhou's business development.
Tang, also former member of the Shanghai municipal committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, was removed from the political advisory body last October after criminal investigations were launched against him.
Tang, 49, has been arrested on charges of embezzlement and bribery.


 MGX has been disappointing, not much over the AZR T/O payout, T/O speculation at present with this mob at 18% approx ownership sounds bazaar.

_ack previous research  _ 

MGX should explain the current bad sp , after all the hype with the statement of misleading share holders over funding of the former board of AZR. : confused:
DYOR


----------



## TheAbyss

MGX speeding ticket response advises that Dow news Wire speculates that a take over offer is on the cards.


----------



## simonb

was looking for the Dow news wire...anybody found it?


----------



## TheAbyss

MGX appears to be coming out of a 3 month down trend. Closed at 76.5 which is just above the downward channel. Perhaps those TO rumours may have some substance?


----------



## alankew

Also looks like it has broken out


----------



## noirua

An increasingly interesting stock to hold are Mount Gibson. After the recent fall, followed by recovery amidst a takeover rumour,  MGX may recover further from here.


----------



## haemitite

As a former AZR holder reluctantly parted with my shares I certainly hope so


----------



## nioka

haemitite said:


> As a former AZR holder reluctantly parted with my shares I certainly hope so




Reluctantly should be in capital letters. If AZR had not been taken over by MGX it would really been firing by now.  
The only thing that is saving MGX is Koolan Is.


----------



## noirua

nioka said:


> Reluctantly should be in capital letters. If AZR had not been taken over by MGX it would really been firing by now.
> The only thing that is saving MGX is Koolan Is.




Very fair comment, as it was only due to a Director cave-in that AZR fell to MGX. However, don't be too upset as Mount Gibson should sort everything out in due course. Or maybe someone else will for them.


----------



## astojic86

Q1 report due out next week.

I emailed the company and that was their response.


----------



## noirua

MGX have moved up to an interesting point on the charts following the results and the increased holding by Shougang Holdings (Hong Kong) Ltd., hopefully will continue to recover.


----------



## haemitite

Merril Lynch initiated coverage with a 1.40 target on MGX last week, see the MGX website.

Remarkable what a single analyst report can do


----------



## TheAbyss

MGX looks like it has well and truly turned for the better. Comsec shows 1 buyer with a bid of 571,302 @.90 waiting in line. 

Any charts or logic as to why other than a broker recomendation with a target of $.40?

Happily holding.


----------



## noirua

haemitite said:


> Merril Lynch initiated coverage with a 1.40 target on MGX last week, see the MGX website.
> 
> Remarkable what a single analyst report can do




Moving towards that $1.40 target with an 8.5 cent move to $1.075 with a healthy 7,280,662 shares traded. The Merril Lynch target looks a fair one as this is very much a recovery stock.


----------



## chansw

An annoucement was released at 6:33pm on ASX yesterday evening. Mount Gibson has signed off-take agreement with major Chinese steel mill "Rizhao Steel Holding Group Co. Ltd" for the sale of the remaining annual iron ore production (up to 1.5 Mtpa equivalent to 37.5% of Koolan Island's prodction at 4 Mtpa production reates)  from its Koolan Island operation and up tp 900,000 tpa (30% of annualised production rate of 3 Mtpa) of iron ore from Tallering Pearking opeation.

For more details, please read the ASX announcement.

All the ex AZR shareholders (including me) finally see all the iron ore on Koolan Island are taken.


----------



## shinobi346

The iron should be selling at todays prices which is a good thing.


1234567890 1234567890 1234567890


----------



## noirua

Mount Gibson are holding up well, at $1.09, after the offtake agreement with a Chinese Steel Mill. Needs more announcements to push on much further, imho.


----------



## Broadside

noirua said:


> Mount Gibson are holding up well, at $1.09, after the offtake agreement with a Chinese Steel Mill. Needs more announcements to push on much further, imho.




I think it is being rerated, along with a number of others in the iron ore sector.  And refer haematite's post 30 April, this will have more bearing than the offtake I reckon.  It has underperformed for a couple of years, finally seems to be getting its act together and iron ore prices are looking strong in the medium term.  I think it will continue to run, I am not allowed to post a target, at least a few more cents.


----------



## chansw

Broadside said:


> I think it is being rerated, along with a number of others in the iron ore sector.  And refer haematite's post 30 April, this will have more bearing than the offtake I reckon.  It has underperformed for a couple of years, finally seems to be getting its act together and iron ore prices are looking strong in the medium term.  I think it will continue to run, I am not allowed to post a target, at least a few more cents.



I agree. Also, in the last quarter report, MGX mentioned "Koolan Island on track to commence ore shipments by the end of the June Quarter 2007". The announcement should be coming out soon.


----------



## Mofra

chansw said:


> I agree. Also, in the last quarter report, MGX mentioned "Koolan Island on track to commence ore shipments by the end of the June Quarter 2007". The announcement should be coming out soon.




...and the market reacted accordingly. Looks like the Merryl Lynch forecast is more than reasonable judging by the market reaction.


----------



## noirua

MGX are now looking good to continue their upward march. Closed at the days high of $1.29 up 11.5 cents.

First Iron Ore Shipment for Koolan Operation:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070618/pdf/312zlv6h5qccl0.pdf


----------



## thierry

this seems to be breaking out now.. @ 1.33 now.. 

Where is this merril lynch report.. 

They did a really good report on MMX, and am I true in saying MMX and MGX are next to each other? How do the two companies compare? any thoughts? 

Cheers


----------



## Caliente

****, Merill did a report on MGX? How come I didnt get it. 

Seriously I need to talk to this broker man of mine.


----------



## Caliente

In fact I'm so p*ssed at Merrill I'm going to post their latest assessment of MMX for the sake of it. I should blame myself though as I dont think I've set up my alerts properly.

Anyway, enough rambling, enjoy the report...compliments of the fat cats at ML.

btw - no I cant find this MGX report I will look for ti and get back to you guys.

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## laurie

July 02 will have MGX into the S&PASX 200  

cheers laurie


----------



## Broadside

laurie said:


> July 02 will have MGX into the S&PASX 200
> 
> cheers laurie




dang I will have to sell, looks much too solid for my portfolio!  This is good news, explains the accumulation the past few weeks, one of the only pure iron ore plays in the index so if instos want exposure they need to come see us.  Sellers, make them earn it.


----------



## jman2007

Up 12c over last 2 days, new high reached today of $1.42. Looks like the faithful holders of this one will be rewarded in time.

Anyone keeping track of the possible spat between MGX and the EPA over the proposed protective measures for WA flora?  I believe it may impact on MGX's extension plans to Extn Hill or Tallering Peak, one of those anyway...


----------



## noirua

No announcements of merit in the last month and Mount Gibson have still continued to rise hitting $1.55 to close at $1.53 for the week. Trading remained very strong with 7,682,488 shares going through.

Iron ore is one of the Princes of the realm these days and that factor alone may have helped the sharp recovery for MGX stock that remained in the doldrums for quite a while.


----------



## Love Zn

jman2007 said:


> Anyone keeping track of the possible spat between MGX and the EPA over the proposed protective measures for WA flora?  I believe it may impact on MGX's extension plans to Extn Hill or Tallering Peak, one of those anyway...




http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/docs/2395_Bull 1242 Mt Gibson PER reduced 271106.pdf

The recommendations all seem achievable and I wouldn't think have very much effect. 

This is the last statement from EPA dated December 2006, don't see any others after this.

http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/article.asp?ID=2405&area=News&CID=18&Category=Media+Statements


----------



## jman2007

Love Zn said:


> http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/docs/2395_Bull 1242 Mt Gibson PER reduced 271106.pdf
> 
> The recommendations all seem achievable and I wouldn't think have very much effect.
> 
> This is the last statement from EPA dated December 2006, don't see any others after this.
> 
> http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/article.asp?ID=2405&area=News&CID=18&Category=Media+Statements




Thanks for the links, yes I agree, doesn't seem to have prevented this one from breaking new ground recently.


----------



## noirua

Mount Gibson continues on the upward trend at $1.64, up 8.5 cents this morning. The recovery, about 100% from lows, look suspiciously like increasing strong interest from larger holders as the high trading volume continues onwards.


----------



## chansw

I found the following today and don't know if anyone of you has read this before. It sounds like they have their eyes on some targets already.

*Mt. Gibson Iron Looking for Takeovers, May Buy Coal (Update1) *

By Jesse Riseborough
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aoQVl7uIC_nI

Mount Gibson Iron Ltd.'s operations on Koolan Island July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Mt. Gibson Iron Ltd., backed by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, is looking for iron ore and coking coal acquisitions in Australia and overseas to benefit from soaring demand for steelmaking ingredients driven by China. 

``We have identified some very clear winners within the M&A space,'' Luke Tonkin, managing director of Perth-based Mt. Gibson, said yesterday by phone. Potential acquisitions could be made within the next 12 to 18 months, he said. 

Rising demand from China has pushed iron ore prices to records for five years, spurring acquisitions including Mt. Gibson's purchase last year of rival Aztec Resources Ltd. Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. surged in May on speculation the company may be acquired by Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's biggest iron-ore producer. 

``Mt. Gibson has a track record of acquisition,'' Merrill Lynch & Co. analysts Mike Harrowell and Stuart Howe said in a July 10 report. ``We expect this pattern to continue with a positive valuation outcome for shareholders.'' 

Shares of Mt. Gibson rose 1.5 cents, or 1 percent, to a record A$1.475 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the Australian Stock Exchange. The company, whose stock has gained 66 percent this year, has a market value of A$1.2 billion ($1 billion). 

Usmanov, through Gallagher Holdings Ltd., holds about 17 percent of Mt. Gibson and ``will participate'' should the Australian company find assets worth buying, Tonkin said. The Uzbek-born billionaire controls Metalloinvest, the world's fourth-largest iron-ore producer, among other businesses. 

Seven Years 

Iron ore will rise through 2009 for a record seven consecutive years of price gains as global production of the key steelmaking raw material fails to meet Chinese demand, UBS AG said in a July 8 report. The price of coking coal, also used in steelmaking, may jump 22 percent next year, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. said in a May report. 

Mt. Gibson will ``closely look at'' acquisitions overseas as well as coking coal assets as its business cycle is complementary to iron ore, Tonkin said. It completed the A$207 million takeover of rival Aztec in January to gain control of the Koolan Island mine where first ore was shipped last month. 

``They have got to be the right size, so around Aztec's size is good but we could certainly do a little bit larger at the moment and the reason for that is we are in exactly that sweet spot in the cycle,'' Tonkin said. No opportunities had matured, he said. 

Mt. Gibson also owns the Tallering Peak mine in Western Australia state, and is awaiting environmental approvals at a third mine, Extension Hill, to bring total production to about 10 million metric tons annually, Tonkin said. 

Macquarie, Citigroup 

Development of the Extension Hill mine will cost about A$80 million and take four months to construct once approval is received, Tonkin said. The mine will produce about 3 million tons annually, he said. 

Iron ore will climb 25 percent in 2008 and 10 percent in 2009, UBS analysts led by Daniel Brebner wrote in the report. That's higher than UBS's previous forecasts for a 10 percent gain in 2008 and no increase in 2009. Macquarie Bank Ltd. expects 2008 prices to rise 17.5 percent, Citigroup Inc. forecasts 20 percent and Credit Suisse Group 25 percent. 

Demand for iron ore is ``as strong as we have seen it,'' Tonkin said, adding that ``you just can't stop the juggernaut overnight.'' Additional supply in the next three to five years may reduce the price of the ore, he said. 

Increased production at steel mills is driving demand for iron ore, the costliest ingredient in steel that's used in items from toasters to cars, UBS said. That leaves BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the mining companies responsible for three-quarters of global trade in iron ore, in a better bargaining position for higher prices. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: July 12, 2007 02:37 EDT


----------



## chansw

Quarterly report was released last night and the result looks good. 

*HIGHLIGHTS* 


*Record full year net profit after tax (unaudited) of $47.7 million, up 103% on the corresponding period last year;* 

*Mount Gibson ideally placed to leverage from strong iron ore prices and demand with 6Mt of iron ore production forecast for 2007/08;*
Iron ore shipments commence from Koolan Island marking the transition of the project from construction to production;    

Koolan Island project scope of work to be completed on budget;   

Major iron ore sales agreement finalised with Chinese steel producer, Rizhao Steel Holding Group Co. Ltd;    

Mount Gibson appoints HSBC Bank Australia Limited and National Australia Bank Limited as the Joint Lead Arranger and Underwriter 
Banks for a A$200 million Corporate Debt facility;    

Mount Gibson reconstitutes the Board of Directors; and    
Infill drilling at Tallering Peak continues to confirm T2 resource and drilling program at Koolan Island commenced with early encouraging results.


----------



## Mofra

chansw said:


> Quarterly report was released last night and the result looks good.



Also interesting to note the board are expecting a 5%-30% increase in iron ore prices in 2008. Really is up to CVRD, BHP & RIO to negotiate though, between them controlling 75% of the world supply.


----------



## greenfs

Whilst iron ore may be extraordinary, I understand from someone within Rio that it is budgeting for an across the board metal price decline of 0.5% in its budget for the next three years. My reason for stating that to you is that it contradicts the 5-30% increase you are using here for iron ore.

Given the rises in metal prices in recent years, I would not be relying on further prices increases. Call it a bonus if the price rises occur.


----------



## haemitite

greenfs said:


> Whilst iron ore may be extraordinary, I understand from someone within Rio that it is budgeting for an across the board metal price decline of 0.5% in its budget for the next three years. My reason for stating that to you is that it contradicts the 5-30% increase you are using here for iron ore.
> 
> Given the rises in metal prices in recent years, I would not be relying on further prices increases. Call it a bonus if the price rises occur.



No contradiction at all

Iron ore is widely expected to go up between 15-25%, "accross the board" measures a different beast altogether


----------



## noirua

An ASX announcement, early this morning, has placed Mount Gibson Iron in "Trading Halt"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070802/pdf/313s88ynjv3snz.pdf


----------



## Mofra

greenfs said:


> Whilst iron ore may be extraordinary, I understand from someone within Rio that it is budgeting for an across the board metal price decline of 0.5% in its budget for the next three years. My reason for stating that to you is that it contradicts the 5-30% increase you are using here for iron ore.



5-30% Increase is the board ann tipped for next year only. May well decline beyond that, although RIO (or any major company for that matter) would generally plan their contingencies on worse than average expectations.


----------



## benwex

Does anyone have ideas to the trading halt??

I am an Aztec share holder who was unwillingly become a MGX holder and dont know a hell of a lot about their management. 

In time like these it pays to send the right message to the market!!!


----------



## noirua

benwex said:


> Does anyone have ideas to the trading halt??
> 
> I am an Aztec share holder who was unwillingly become a MGX holder and dont know a hell of a lot about their management.
> 
> In time like these it pays to send the right message to the market!!!




There are rumours that the Russian Billionaire Tycoon, Alisher Usmanov may be in talks with Mount Gibson Iron.


----------



## benwex

Thanks for that...

I have been following that rumour as well but it is safe to say he was not an on market buyer yesterday thats for sure...

It was a big drop with very little resistance on the down.

Hope to see some positve news in the next few days.

Benwex


----------



## chansw

noirua said:


> There are rumours that the Russian Billionaire Tycoon, Alisher Usmanov may be in talks with Mount Gibson Iron.



It is to do with the Appeal Decision Report released today from the Minister for the Environment. In short, Mount Gibson has been given OK for the development of its Extension Hill iron ore mine. However, according to the following article, some other mining projects in the Mid West region are not clear. 

*Mt Gibson appeal leaves Mid West future unclear*
2-August-07 by Mark Beyer

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/55473/Mt-Gibson-appeal-leaves-Mid-West-future-uclear

Mt Gibson Iron Ltd has overcome environmental objections to the development of its Extension Hill iron ore mine in the Mid West but the decision by Environment Minister David Templeman has left the future of iron ore mining in the region unclear.

In a report released by the Office of the Appeals Convenor, Mr Templeman rejected the advice of the Environmental Protection Authority which said the mine should not proceed.

However the Minister failed to address wider concerns which the industry believes could threaten a large number of future mining projects.

A Ministerial strategic review is addressing the future of the region, particularly the impact of mining on its flora and fauna.



Extracts from the Appeal Decision Report are pasted below: 

*Executive Summary*


The EPA released its report and recommendations on the Mt Gibson Mining and Infrastructure proposal in November 2006, and a total of thirty two (32) appeals were received against that report.
The grounds of appeal are:
1. Reservation of other areas of the Mt Gibson range, in particular significant flora species;
2. Floristic communities;
3. The adequacy of the proponent's offsets;
4. Performance bond;
5. The significance of Gastrolobium laytonii;
6. Procedural fairness;
7. EPA assessment of the Darwinia masonii and Lepidosperma sp. at Mt Gibson;
8. Conflict of interest;
9. The transport of hematite;
10. Dust and surface hydrology;
11. Translocation of rare plants;
12. Impacts on surrounding properties; and
13. Compliance Reporting Condition.


On the first ground of appeal, taking into account the advice from the Appeals Convenor, and that this proposal would lead to a loss of 14-15% of the known population of D. masonii and around 46% of the Lepidosperma sp. Mt Gibson population, the Minister concluded that at least most of the remainder of the Mt Gibson Range has significant conservation value and that this value is worthy of protection in the long-term. The Minister dismissed this ground of appeal on the issue of the conservation significance of the remainder of the Mt Gibson range.
However, the Minister also decided to allow this ground of appeal to the extent that the proposal can proceed independent of the process to protect the remainder of the Mt Gibson Ranges subject to conditions. In allowing this appeal in part the Minister noted that the conditions recommended by the EPA on the proposal, the initial commitments made by the proponent and the additional commitment made by the proponent to provide resources to the DEC to manage the remainder of the Mt Gibson Range whilst the proposal is operational, subject to conditions, should give adequate protection to that area from the impacts of the proposal.


It should be noted that in allowing these appeals to this extent this should not be seen as a downgrading
of the significant conservation values of the remainder of the Mt Gibson Range.


On the second ground of appeal, the Minister found that the EPA assessment of this factor is neither flawed nor unreasonable as it referred to both the advice of the proponent's consultants and the DEC to arrive at its conclusion. To this extent, the Minister dismissed this ground of appeal, but with regard to the matter of the class 'A' nature reserve, the Minister had previously allowed this appeal ground to the extent as set out in appeal ground 1.
The Minister noted, however, that the use of floristic communities in determining ecological and biodiversity values is a matter of some debate within the scientific community, as indicated by the differences expressed through this assessment and the appeals process. The Minister has written to the DEC seeking appropriate advice on how best to progress the science of defining and applying floristic communities in WA.


On the third ground of appeal, the Minister accepted the proponent's offsets as reasonable for the
direct impacts of the proposal, and allowed this ground of appeal accordingly.


On the forth ground of appeal, the Minister considered that to cover the likelihood that some or all of the pipelines will need to be removed following mine closure, a bond should be required to cover post-closure works in the corridor, and that the amount recommended by the EPA is reasonable. However, in acknowledgement of the possibility that the size of the bond may need to change once the EPA has completed its work on bonds for service corridors, the Minister has allowed this appeal only to the extent that the date that the bond needs to be lodged to the DEC be put back from 'prior to ground-disturbing activity' to 'prior to commencement of operations of the mine'. This will allow time for the EPA policy position to further develop. If the amount being asked in this case is excessive, then it is open to the proponent to suggest that the Minister initiate a Section 46 change to conditions process to have the amount of the bond bought into line with that policy position. The Minister also supported the EPA recommended changes to Condition 15 so as to better clarify the intent and meaning of this condition.

The Minister concluded with the matter of the class 'A' Nature Reserve.


Whilst the Minister has allowed appeals to the extent that the proposal can proceed at this time without the approval being linked to the question of a class 'A' Nature Reserve for the remainder of the Mt Gibson Range, the Minister agreed with the EPA that the remaining areas need some high level of protection in the long term. As a result, he wrote to his colleague, the Minister for Resources, seeking his agreement to a process that will guarantee a high level of protection to a significant portion of the area.


In deciding on the level of protection that should be offered to the remainder of the Mt Gibson Range, the two Ministers took into account the following advice from both the EPA and the DEC:
- it is highly unlikely that the two DRF species will be found anywhere else other than at Mt Gibson Range;
- the long-term re-establishment of these rare species in rehabilitation, or in other than their normal habitat, is a high risk strategy that is unlikely to be successful; and
- the floristic communities associated with the DRF must also be protected in order to preserve ecological processes and habitat that may be critical to the long-term survival of these species in the natural environment.


Both Ministers were of the view that the southern ridges of Mt Gibson and Mt Gibson South require immediate long term protection and should be reserved as a class 'A' Nature Reserve. The central ridges of Iron Hill East, Iron Hill South, Iron Hill North and Extension Hill South will continue to be protected through the provisions of the Environmental Protection Act 1986, notably the EPA formal assessment provisions under Part IV and the clearing provisions under Part V. Any proposal for exploration or mining in this area would need to demonstrate compatibility with the established conservation values.


In arriving at this decision both Ministers were both mindful that this is a decision specific to this particular BIF and not the other BIF's in the Mid West region. The Strategic Review being conducted by DEC and DOIR will address the broader issues of environmental and socioeconomic values of the remaining BIF's.


*Background*
Mount Gibson Mining Limited proposes to mine and process iron ore (hematite and magnetite) from the northern portion of the Mt Gibson Range, involving Extension Hill and Extension Hill North, approximately 350km north east of Perth and some 80km east of Perenjori. The proposal also includes the construction of infrastructure, being a pipeline to transport the magnetite slurry to Geraldton Port, and infrastructure at the port to remove the ore from the slurry for export. The operation will yield approximately 13 million tonnes of hematite over 8 years and 230 million tonnes of magnetite over 20 years. The transport of the hematite is not part of this proposal, and will be
stored at the site in the interim.

*Consideration*
The Minister noted that the primary reason for many appeals is concern that he would adopt the EPA recommendations relating to the remainder of the Mt Gibson Range not impacted by this proposal being included in a class 'A' nature reserve, and that the proposal not proceed unless and until this is. This matter was covered after he considered all of the appeal grounds. The Minister noted that many of the appeal grounds were in support of this concern, and that many appellants also raised a number of issues that are either more strategic in nature or are largely socioeconomic, which the Appeals Convenor advised go beyond the scope of the environmental
appeals process. These matters are reported in the Appeals Convenor report but were not taken into account in his recommendations to the Minister.


----------



## shinobi346

WA Environment Minister oks the project. Should get the price rolling again. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00745581


----------



## noirua

No Tycoon around, but at least MGX shares have got back into their stride again.
Despite the sharp fall in the US Dow late on Friday, MGX should still go on from here. Looks very interesting.


----------



## haemitite

*Merrills still like it ....

Fundamentals in place, buy once halt ends​*
Mt Gibson is in trading halt, pending management review of today’s
environmental approval, which was basically good news for MGX in our view,discussed separately. Market fears of iron ore price risk is misplaced, in our view,and our valuation, $2/sh target and Buy recommendation intact.​
*WA Minister approves new MGX mine, but…​*The WA Environment Minister has approved Mt Gibson’s Extension Hill and
not required MGX to give up other exploration targets in the Geraldton region as a condition, as far as we can see. However, there are a large number of hard to interpret comments by the Minister, which MGX says will take it until Monday to interpret.​
*Strategic issues arising​*The downside case is that MGX access to new projects in the Geraldton region may be limited, and the company may have to go elsewhere to grow. We do not see this as material to our existing valuation or impacting on our price target or recommendation.​
*Earnings changes from Prodn Report​*We have market FY07 earnings to actual but still refer to the year as an estimate because we only have the headline NPAT. The audited result is expected next week. FY08 earnings has increased 7% on higher sales volumes guidance.​


----------



## Mofra

Cheers hemetite for posting that report.

a. It's nice to see they had a hard time interpreting the Minister's report as well, if you see a lawyer to English dictionary avaialble, please let me know :

b. Having to go elsewhere to grow shouldn't be a problem, would be surprised if the Aztec takeover is the last piece of corporate activity undertaken by the board. Media reports even mentioned the idea of coal being added to MGX's interests.


----------



## noirua

With all the prospects from the recent go-ahead this stock plunge appears ridiculous, however, I could be wrong. Found time to add a few more in hopes this has all been overdone. Time to be brave, well, maybe.


----------



## juw177

Was down around 15% at one point today. The trend on the graph starting to look bearish. But then so do most other stocks on the asx.


----------



## noirua

After adding stock on the big plunge I have decided to unload as a rebound to $1.53 this morning is a surprising one. Hope it goes on up for everyone - Good Luck in these tricky markets


----------



## shinobi346

Full year accounts came out today. No dividends but they have enough funds or access to it to develop and mine the Tallering Peak, Koolan Island and Extension Hill iron deposits.


Financial Highlights
• Record full year net profit after tax of $47.8 million, up 103% on the previous year;
• Sales revenue of $165 million, up 119% on the previous year;
• Operating profit before tax $42.3 million, up 140% on previous year;
• Net assets total $454 million, up 316% on the previous year;
• Cash on hand at June 2007 - $61 million; and
• New Corporate Debt Facility signed on 28 August 2007 and conditions precedent to drawdown to be satisfied in early September


I wonder what their next move is other than getting Koolan Island into production. A buyout possibly?


----------



## Mofra

shinobi346 said:


> I wonder what their next move is other than getting Koolan Island into production. A buyout possibly?



They do seem cashed up with debt at the lower end of the spectrum for a miner in the opening stages of production expansion. 

Given the problems at the Geralton Port it makes sense to look elsewhere for growth, as organically growing the existing portfolio would be useless until the port issue is dealt with. Given the Aztec takeover and the earlier media reports of an expansion into coal (bulk commodity production seems to be a focus) further acquisition appears likely. Happy to hold


----------



## michael_selway

shinobi346 said:


> Full year accounts came out today. No dividends but they have enough funds or access to it to develop and mine the Tallering Peak, Koolan Island and Extension Hill iron deposits.
> 
> 
> Financial Highlights
> • Record full year net profit after tax of $47.8 million, up 103% on the previous year;
> • Sales revenue of $165 million, up 119% on the previous year;
> • Operating profit before tax $42.3 million, up 140% on previous year;
> • Net assets total $454 million, up 316% on the previous year;
> • Cash on hand at June 2007 - $61 million; and
> • New Corporate Debt Facility signed on 28 August 2007 and conditions precedent to drawdown to be satisfied in early September
> 
> 
> I wonder what their next move is other than getting Koolan Island into production. A buyout possibly?




Does MGX have a limited mine life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.1 11.2 24.3 33.8 
DPS 0.0 4.2 10.4 16.9 *


thx

MS


----------



## Mofra

michael_selway said:


> Does MGX have a limited mine life?



Technically every mining co does, however MGX still has exploration options & development options within current land holdings, as well as stockpiles building due to the backlog at the Port of Geraldton. One of the pits at Tellering Peak was supended as well from memory, so this would serve to lengthen overall mine life.

Just a quick question, are the EPS foprecast figures you've provided inclusive of the Koonan Island (Aztec resources) production? Extension Hill forecast of 10MTpa is not due to be hit until 2010.


----------



## michael_selway

Mofra said:


> Technically every mining co does, however MGX still has exploration options & development options within current land holdings, as well as stockpiles building due to the backlog at the Port of Geraldton. One of the pits at Tellering Peak was supended as well from memory, so this would serve to lengthen overall mine life.
> 
> Just a quick question, are the EPS foprecast figures you've provided inclusive of the Koonan Island (Aztec resources) production? Extension Hill forecast of 10MTpa is not due to be hit until 2010.




Hi thanks, actually wouldnt be 100% sure, they are just the recent consensus forecast from COMSEC

thx

MS


----------



## jman2007

Wow, great recovery from 1.19 a few weeks ago, mostly on the strength of the balance sheet I would say.  Anyone been following this? Would have possibly expected some resistance at 2.00 considering the new all-time high, but pushed through relatively easily.  Would expect some profit taking and consolidation to occur soon though, a breather would do it some good.


----------



## rustyheela

i read on egoli last week, maquaries ( MRE ) had MGX as one of their preferrred exposure to iron. this may have gave the stock a giddyup lately.


----------



## jman2007

rustyheela said:


> i read on egoli last week, maquaries ( MRE ) had MGX as one of their preferrred exposure to iron. this may have gave the stock a giddyup lately.




Yeah

no surprise with that MRE recommendation rusty, as predicted some profit-taking underway in last couple of days, dipping under 2.00 again, but imo will do it some good.


----------



## michael_selway

jman2007 said:


> Yeah
> 
> no surprise with that MRE recommendation rusty, as predicted some profit-taking underway in last couple of days, dipping under 2.00 again, but imo will do it some good.




It looks like it has a short mine life

*Tallering Peak Koolan Island Extension Hill
Annual production (Mt) 3 4 (target)3 (target)
Expected minimum mine life 6 8 6*

thx

MS


----------



## jman2007

Agreed,

MGX is a relatively high-cost producer with limited life spans at some of their mines.  The challenge for MGX management will be to procure other assests over the next 1-2 years, and try to capture greater economics of scale.


----------



## tech/a

Been trading this myself.
Some technical view if anyone interested.
While there is possibly more in this move I'm expecting to have to wait for a better buy opportunity.
Analysis below.
The Grey and Coloured Elipses will move across/up and down the page as trading matures.
They will eventually converge at a price and time point normally at a low of significance.


----------



## chansw

jman2007 said:


> Agreed,
> 
> MGX is a relatively high-cost producer with limited life spans at some of their mines.  The challenge for MGX management will be to procure other assests over the next 1-2 years, and try to capture greater economics of scale.



When you said MGX is a relatively high-cost producer, can you provide some figures for that? In the Investors presentation that MGX put on ASX last week, it has a chart to compare itself with a number of iron ore producers and indicates all MGX projects have amongst the lowest capital intensity of any of its peers.

Other than MRE, Smart Investors August issue also recommends MGX as one of the top 5 small company share. The mine life might be shorter but MGX has indicated possible M&A in the next 18 months with its strong cashflow. At the end of the day, the large reserve under the ground is good but it can only be turned into cash when the company can mine it and ship it to the customers. Anyway, just my two cents.


----------



## michael_selway

chansw said:


> When you said MGX is a relatively high-cost producer, can you provide some figures for that? In the Investors presentation that MGX put on ASX last week, it has a chart to compare itself with a number of iron ore producers and indicates all MGX projects have amongst the lowest capital intensity of any of its peers.
> 
> Other than MRE, Smart Investors August issue also recommends MGX as one of the top 5 small company share. The mine life might be shorter but MGX has indicated possible M&A in the next 18 months with its strong cashflow. At the end of the day, the large reserve under the ground is good but it can only be turned into cash when the company can mine it and ship it to the customers. Anyway, just my two cents.




Hi what were the other top 5 companies they recommended?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 72.5 81.8 68.4 62.0 
DPS 57.5 46.5 36.6 30.0 *


----------



## chansw

michael_selway said:


> Hi what were the other top 5 companies they recommended?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> EPS 72.5 81.8 68.4 62.0
> DPS 57.5 46.5 36.6 30.0 *




Should I tell you or not?  Anyway, the top 5 small companies shares they recommended in August issue are :-

AGS
DYL
MGX
PNA
SBM


----------



## Miner

MGX has excellent potential and at a very advanced stage.
Price is also cheap considering its ore value and production situation.
I do not have any share on it. I had and sold it a premium (that time I thought to have made money !!!) but watching it with caution.
There are too many small to medium iron ore producers and with Chinese connection it will be only time when China will buy many of them and reduce the premium market.

Regards

Miner


----------



## jman2007

chansw said:


> When you said MGX is a relatively high-cost producer, can you provide some figures for that? In the Investors presentation that MGX put on ASX last week, it has a chart to compare itself with a number of iron ore producers and indicates all MGX projects have amongst the lowest capital intensity of any of its peers.
> 
> Other than MRE, Smart Investors August issue also recommends MGX as one of the top 5 small company share. The mine life might be shorter but MGX has indicated possible M&A in the next 18 months with its strong cashflow. At the end of the day, the large reserve under the ground is good but it can only be turned into cash when the company can mine it and ship it to the customers. Anyway, just my two cents.




I sourced the information from the Merrill Lynch MGX Securties Analysis dated 27th April 2007.

(quote)..."Mt Gibson is a high cost iron ore producer on its current ore bodies, relative to the capital intensive operations and projects in the Pilbara and elsewhere." (end quote)

They provide the following figures:

Key Income Statement Data (Jun) 

2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E (A$ Millions)
  77      75     162     417    624 *(Sales)* 
 (50)    (55)  (114)  (244)  (335) *(Operating Expenses)*

Haven't had a chance to look at the MGX investor presentation you mentioned, but I would be interested to see who their "peers" are and the manner in which they are presenting their data.  Don't get me wrong, I think MGX have done fantastically well, and it's know wonder they have risen to prominence over the past 6 months.  The future bodes well.

Cheers
jman2007


----------



## chansw

jman2007 said:


> I sourced the information from the Merrill Lynch MGX Securties Analysis dated 27th April 2007.
> 
> (quote)..."Mt Gibson is a high cost iron ore producer on its current ore bodies, relative to the capital intensive operations and projects in the Pilbara and elsewhere." (end quote)
> 
> They provide the following figures:
> 
> Key Income Statement Data (Jun)
> 
> 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E (A$ Millions)
> 77      75     162     417    624 *(Sales)*
> (50)    (55)  (114)  (244)  (335) *(Operating Expenses)*
> 
> Haven't had a chance to look at the MGX investor presentation you mentioned, but I would be interested to see who their "peers" are and the manner in which they are presenting their data.  Don't get me wrong, I think MGX have done fantastically well, and it's know wonder they have risen to prominence over the past 6 months.  The future bodes well.
> 
> Cheers
> jman2007




You can read the presentation at

http://www.mtgibsoniron.com.au/uploads/Mount%20Gibson%20Investor%20presentation%20September%202007.pdf

The following chart is from that presentation which indicates their peers that includes GBG, FMG, MIS, BHP, ... etc. According to the presentation, those figures were worked out from those companies reports. The forecast from Huntley Investment for MGX is

Year                       2008           2009
EPS                        11.2 cps      24.3cps
EPS Growth (1 yr)     57.08%pa    116.96%pa
EPS Growth (2 yr)     38.01%pa    84.61%pa
EPS Growth (3 yr)     40.02%pa    60.48%pa

MGX is in a more advanced stage compared to some of its peers in Midwest region and can take better advantage of the strong iron ore price outlook. According to that presentation, Top 50 shareholders currently represents 70% of shareholding. I am happy to continue to hold.


----------



## greenfs

The following commentary was supplied to a Tolhurst client (not me) earlier today...

We are approaching the latest round of Iron Ore price negotiations with our major Asian clients and we are expecting a large increase in Fe prices this time round. 25% is about market consensus.

If this is the case it will probably fire up the sector yet again.

I have to say I much prefer the likes of Mt Gibson (MGX) as they are a producer and they have just pulled back to around $2.25 which represents great value.

I am not (yet) a holder of this stock


----------



## jman2007

chansw said:


> You can read the presentation at
> 
> http://www.mtgibsoniron.com.au/uploads/Mount%20Gibson%20Investor%20presentation%20September%202007.pdf
> 
> The following chart is from that presentation which indicates their peers that includes GBG, FMG, MIS, BHP, ... etc. According to the presentation, those figures were worked out from those companies reports. The forecast from Huntley Investment for MGX is
> 
> Year                       2008           2009
> EPS                        11.2 cps      24.3cps
> EPS Growth (1 yr)     57.08%pa    116.96%pa
> EPS Growth (2 yr)     38.01%pa    84.61%pa
> EPS Growth (3 yr)     40.02%pa    60.48%pa
> 
> MGX is in a more advanced stage compared to some of its peers in Midwest region and can take better advantage of the strong iron ore price outlook. According to that presentation, Top 50 shareholders currently represents 70% of shareholding. I am happy to continue to hold.




Thanks for the data chansw,

I have been a holder of this since I picked up a bunch for 79.5c, I find the apparent contrast between our sources of information an interesting one.  I don't really feel it necessary to debate the subtleties of their cost structure however, as the sp is speaking volumes.  The upcoming round of price negotiation for MGX should prove an interesting time for holders. I feel the increasing Chinese influence in the sector is a sign that Chinese interests may attempt to gain a foothold, and attempt to exert a disproportionate level of control over the iron ore price, that seems to be the way they like to do business.

I am merely expressing my own opinion, and this is not meant to be taken as financial advice by anyone. DYOR

Cheers
jman2007


----------



## Miner

Dear J Man
I fully agree with you.
The signs are there that our negotiation power will be only for a short time no matter how much ore we produce. 
There are many reasons for me saying so.
The biggest Chinese investment corporation has free money of $1200 billion to invest world wide and Australia is a cheap area for them.
Our over dependance on Chinese steel makers to acquire shares of small to medium cap means gradually they are snaring our companies.
I have attended the last Global Iron Conference in Burswood WA and the presentation by various organisations including top of chienese investment organisation supports what I said. Their use of language and wording was different however.
One of the top Australian lawyers is just workign with chinese companies to get more and more acquisitions.
Recent float Chinese Yunan (not sure of the spelling) also supports that now the investment vehicle is fast working.
It is like fishing net if I can make an example
I also had MGX and I sold it for quick profit which was not bad.
I am watching important iron ore shares and they are consolidating by amalgamation. In next three years there would be probably five large players or groups in iron ore group and two of them will be Chinese owned or controlled.
It is pure economics and no speculation here.

Regards

Miner


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> Dear J Man
> I fully agree with you.
> The signs are there that our negotiation power will be only for a short time no matter how much ore we produce.
> There are many reasons for me saying so.
> The biggest Chinese investment corporation has free money of $1200 billion to invest world wide and Australia is a cheap area for them.
> Our over dependance on Chinese steel makers to acquire shares of small to medium cap means gradually they are snaring our companies.
> I have attended the last Global Iron Conference in Burswood WA and the presentation by various organisations including top of chienese investment organisation supports what I said. Their use of language and wording was different however.
> One of the top Australian lawyers is just workign with chinese companies to get more and more acquisitions.
> Recent float Chinese Yunan (not sure of the spelling) also supports that now the investment vehicle is fast working.
> It is like fishing net if I can make an example
> I also had MGX and I sold it for quick profit which was not bad.
> I am watching important iron ore shares and they are consolidating by amalgamation. In next three years there would be probably five large players or groups in iron ore group and two of them will be Chinese owned or controlled.
> It is pure economics and no speculation here.
> 
> Regards
> 
> Miner




G'day Miner,

There are some interesting points raised in the "iron ore" thread created by YOUNG_TRADER detailing the current status of Australian negotiations, and the possible leveraging options available to Aust companies to force a better deal, here is a sample;

"If China is so desperate for iron ore that it would pay US$171/t at spot for low quality ore, why are BHP and Rio accepting only US$78/t? To adjust the price upwards towards something more equivalent would be to add literally billions to the bottom line of both companies.  The answer lies in an arrangement between Australia and China which has been in place for 25 years. For starters, both supplier and customer prefer to negotiate annual fixed-price contracts than play games in the spot market. This provides price security to both parties. But most importantly, under the arrangement Australia has always borne the cost of freight"...

I assume this situation is still in place, ie we pay the freight costs, thus biting into the profits, even though our ore is of a superior quality to that of other Chinese customers. eg India

Perhaps the iron ore thread may be a more appropriate forum to discuss these factors, since this is not an exclusively MGX issue.

Cheers!
jman2007


----------



## haemitite

A couple of points about the "high cost" comments

There is a capex/opex tradeoff to consider, ie the smaller miners often lease their mining fleet, so appear to have higher opex than the big guys when they simply are playing a capital charge on equipment

And a high cost producer - and I don't think MGX is comparatively - is more leveraged to upside in a higher price environment


----------



## greenfs

The following comment was provided by Tolhurst to an investor colleague when asked to comment on GWR prospects

We are approaching the latest round of Iron Ore price negotiations with our major Asian clients and we are expecting a large increase in Fe prices this time round. 25% is about market consensus.

If this is the case it will probably fire up the sector yet again.

I have to say I much prefer the likes of Mt Gibson (MGX) as they are a producer and they have just pulled back to around $2.25 which represents great value.


----------



## danc

THe following is an extract from a uk news letter i sub to, from todays.I hold more than a few of these so am preety keen to see it go

Mineweb.com: BHP and Rio both to push for freight premium for Aussie iron ore shipments to China - Thanks to a subscriber for this article from Mineweb by Lawrence Williams which highlights a potential bonus for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto if they succeed in their negotiations with the Chinese on iron ore pricing for the next year. Here is the article in full. 

Reports from good sources in Australia suggest that this year BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will both demand premium prices for their iron ore shipments to China based on the freight cost differential between iron ore shipments from Brazil and those from Australia. If these differentials can be negotiated with the Chinese, then the effective price increase for Australian shipments could be as much as around 20 percent over and above whatever other price increase the miners might receive.

Currently China receives the vast bulk of the iron ore shipments necessary to feed its ever growing steel industry from Australia and Brazil, with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto dominating the Australian deliveries and CVRD those from Brazil. In effect, the Chinese are currently paying considerably more fro Brazilian output, even though the fob iron ore prices are the same. The balance is made up from the freight cost differential because of the extremely long shipping route from Brazil.

BHP Billiton has raised this possibility in previous negotiations with the Chinese (and Japanese) steel mills, but this idea had been thrown out by the mills and without a stand from Rio Tinto on the same issue, BHPB had to concede. 

Mineweb did touch on this issue in the article 'Forget gold and base metals
- iron ore may be the place to be' but the latest reports from Australia that the two mega companies will probably both take a similar approach makes the whole scenario more likely.

If the Chinese agree reluctantly to a landed price for iron ore equivalent to the landed price of Brazilian material, analysts feel that the effective price increase likely to be achieved by the Australian miners would be 50 percent or more, which would make a huge impact on profits even for the big diversified companies. If such a price increase flows through to the smaller iron ore mining companies, where iron ore may be their main product, then the impact on profits, and on share prices, could be enormous.

Chinese steel mills, which have seen iron ore prices rise dramatically over the past few years, have been the victims of their own success as it has been their demand which has led to the iron ore price increases. With their appetite for iron ore seemingly unstoppable short of a huge worldwide recession, the outlook for iron ore producers remains among the best for any metal.

My view - I do not believe that this eventuality has been priced into the shares of Rio Tinto (RTP in the USA) and BHP Billiton because it seems like such a long shot. However these companies along with CVRD have succeeded in negotiating significant price increases in the last three years so they may be able to pull this off. If they can, the resulting jump in company profits will swiftly be reflected in the share's prices.


----------



## jman2007

danc said:


> THe following is an extract from a uk news letter i sub to, from todays.I hold more than a few of these so am preety keen to see it go
> 
> Mineweb.com: BHP and Rio both to push for freight premium for Aussie iron ore shipments to China - Thanks to a subscriber for this article from Mineweb by Lawrence Williams which highlights a potential bonus for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto if they succeed in their negotiations with the Chinese on iron ore pricing for the next year. Here is the article in full.
> 
> Reports from good sources in Australia suggest that this year BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will both demand premium prices for their iron ore shipments to China based on the freight cost differential between iron ore shipments from Brazil and those from Australia. If these differentials can be negotiated with the Chinese, then the effective price increase for Australian shipments could be as much as around 20 percent over and above whatever other price increase the miners might receive.
> 
> Currently China receives the vast bulk of the iron ore shipments necessary to feed its ever growing steel industry from Australia and Brazil, with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto dominating the Australian deliveries and CVRD those from Brazil. In effect, the Chinese are currently paying considerably more fro Brazilian output, even though the fob iron ore prices are the same. The balance is made up from the freight cost differential because of the extremely long shipping route from Brazil.
> 
> BHP Billiton has raised this possibility in previous negotiations with the Chinese (and Japanese) steel mills, but this idea had been thrown out by the mills and without a stand from Rio Tinto on the same issue, BHPB had to concede.
> 
> Mineweb did touch on this issue in the article 'Forget gold and base metals
> - iron ore may be the place to be' but the latest reports from Australia that the two mega companies will probably both take a similar approach makes the whole scenario more likely.
> 
> If the Chinese agree reluctantly to a landed price for iron ore equivalent to the landed price of Brazilian material, analysts feel that the effective price increase likely to be achieved by the Australian miners would be 50 percent or more, which would make a huge impact on profits even for the big diversified companies. If such a price increase flows through to the smaller iron ore mining companies, where iron ore may be their main product, then the impact on profits, and on share prices, could be enormous.
> 
> Chinese steel mills, which have seen iron ore prices rise dramatically over the past few years, have been the victims of their own success as it has been their demand which has led to the iron ore price increases. With their appetite for iron ore seemingly unstoppable short of a huge worldwide recession, the outlook for iron ore producers remains among the best for any metal.
> 
> My view - I do not believe that this eventuality has been priced into the shares of Rio Tinto (RTP in the USA) and BHP Billiton because it seems like such a long shot. However these companies along with CVRD have succeeded in negotiating significant price increases in the last three years so they may be able to pull this off. If they can, the resulting jump in company profits will swiftly be reflected in the share's prices.




Cheers for the article danc,

Pretty much follows on in a similar vein to what I was saying earlier in this thread today.  It will be interesting to see whether the smaller miners such as MGX are able to exert an influence over their customers re price increases.  

Does anyone know if the contracts are renewed on an annual basis? I suppose if the company was unhappy with the outcome of negotiations, they could always sell their ore on the spot market.

Cheers
jman2007


----------



## jman2007

Morning,

Slightly surprised that the recent sp performance hasn't been commented on.  Reached 2.80 this morning even on the back of an average day so far on the ASX.  Even from the recent pullback to 2.25, investors could still have made a healthy gain.  IMO traders are banking on the results of the current round of iron ore price negotiations in the expectation of a significant increase in favour of the producers.

Cheers
jman2007


----------



## TheAbyss

Charts looks great if you are a holder. opportunity to buy didnt last long if you have been looking to get in recently. Those that have held for a while will be feeling good at the moment


----------



## BigJohnny

Quarterly activity report out after market,                                                                                                                                                                                                   as well response to speeding ticket.


----------



## chansw

MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED (“MOUNT GIBSON”) 
QUARTERLY REPORT 
FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007 
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 16 OCTOBER 2007

HIGHLIGHTS    


Record quarterly production and sales    
- 35% production increase compared with the previous quarter    
- 69% sales volume increase compared with the previous quarter    
Strong operational performance at Tallering Peak   
Solid increase in production and sales from Koolan Island as open pit operations are established    
Crushing and ship-loading capability increased at Koolan Island    
Increases in Reserves and Resources with further increases likely    
State government environmental approval of the Mt Gibson Iron Ore Mine and Infrastructure Project finalised.  Commonwealth approval, based on the State recommendations, is expected by early November    
Mount Gibson entered into a Facility Agreement with HSBC Australia Limited and National Australia Bank Limited as the joint lead Arranger and Underwriting Banks for a $200 million debt facility
MGX continues to look good.


----------



## michael_selway

chansw said:


> MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED (“MOUNT GIBSON”)
> QUARTERLY REPORT
> FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
> ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 16 OCTOBER 2007
> 
> HIGHLIGHTS
> 
> 
> Record quarterly production and sales
> - 35% production increase compared with the previous quarter
> - 69% sales volume increase compared with the previous quarter
> Strong operational performance at Tallering Peak
> Solid increase in production and sales from Koolan Island as open pit operations are established
> Crushing and ship-loading capability increased at Koolan Island
> Increases in Reserves and Resources with further increases likely
> State government environmental approval of the Mt Gibson Iron Ore Mine and Infrastructure Project finalised.  Commonwealth approval, based on the State recommendations, is expected by early November
> Mount Gibson entered into a Facility Agreement with HSBC Australia Limited and National Australia Bank Limited as the joint lead Arranger and Underwriting Banks for a $200 million debt facility
> MGX continues to look good.




DO you know how much?

"Increases in Reserves and Resources with further increases likely"    

thx

MS


----------



## chansw

michael_selway said:


> DO you know how much?
> 
> "Increases in Reserves and Resources with further increases likely"
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



The following is extracted from the quarterly report

Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Statement as at 30 June 2007 
Mount Gibson Iron Limited 

Since last reported for December 2006, Mount Gibson’s 100% owned Ore Reserves have increased, replacing production over the half-year of 1.8 million tonnes (Mt) and rising 4.3 Mt, up from 57.7 Mt to 62.0 Mt.  

This increase is primarily due to:    


Incorporation of Main Pit West into Koolan Island Ore Reserves; and
More appropriate modeling of mining dilution at Koolan Island’s Main Pit; 
Refinement of pit designs at Extension Hill and Mullet-Acacia (Koolan Island).

Mineral Resources including Reserves (also 100% owned) have increased 3.9 Mt after production, up from 99.4 Mt to 103.3 Mt, primarily due to the introduction of a uniform 50% Fe lower cut-off reporting grade to better reflect blending opportunities and mining practices. 

Infill, extensional and exploration drilling is planned to continue throughout the coming year at Koolan Island and Tallering Peak.  Systematic updates of resource models, mine designs and mining schedules will be conducted during the year.  Work at Extension Hill will commence when all site access approvals are received, anticipated for December 2007. 

The next Resource and Reserve update statement is scheduled for September 2008.


----------



## trendsta

It looks like theres a lot going for MGX atm .. 

Its already in production, has customers in China, has mines in mid-west region where some consolidation is taking place, recent acquisition ..

Also, India is curbing its iron ore exports due to its growing economy. This is  going to put more pressure on supply to China thus increasing prices going forward.


----------



## trendsta

after hours news release just came out 

APAC resources, a chinese company bought 2.2 million worth of shares. It now holds over 20% of MGX.

From their previous trading it looks like they have been buying up over last few months.


----------



## trendsta

mac bank started covering MGX and has target of 3.15

given its already producing and has strong cashflow I think MGX wil be looking to acquire some more assets..


----------



## michael_selway

trendsta said:


> mac bank started covering MGX and has target of 3.15
> 
> given its already producing and has strong cashflow I think MGX wil be looking to acquire some more assets..




It only has a mine life of 6-8 years so yes it really needs to find more resources

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.1 11.2 24.3 33.8 
DPS 0.0 4.2 10.4 16.9 *

thx

MS


----------



## haemitite

The main point is that they will be selling tonnes into an under-supplied market over the next 3/4 years. After that its a question of resource extension and/or new developements

PS - why do you equate cashflow to EPS in your tag, very different animals.


----------



## chewy

haemitite said:


> The main point is that they will be selling tonnes into an under-supplied market over the next 3/4 years




Thats right - same reason i am in to TTY as well as MGX

Nearly all the other IO players (except the bigguns bhp and rio) are going to miss the best IO prices over the next 3/4 years.


----------



## Flying Fish

Nearly all the other IO players (except the bigguns bhp and rio) are going to miss the best IO prices over the next 3/4 years
What is IO ?


----------



## j4mesa

That is Iron Ore for IO.
Sometimes abbreviation is confusing isn't it ?
but as time goes by if you have been in aussie stock forum ,sometimes u can guess it.


----------



## Flying Fish

j4mesa said:


> That is Iron Ore for IO.
> Sometimes abbreviation is confusing isn't it ?
> but as time goes by if you have been in aussie stock forum ,sometimes u can guess it.




Ok I am sorry a little new to this Iron ore ok so mostly FeO2 or something like that. Anyway I hope this makes 100 charcters and thanks again


----------



## Miner

Dear Flying fish

Never mind.
I do not prefer using too many TLA (two or three letter acronyms) however when I personally use MGX then I would know that MGX is Mt Gibson Iron Ore and deal with Iron Ore = IO.
Not to offend you but I think  no iron ore company has ever produced FeO2 but FeO, Fe2O3 and Fe3O4. These are essentially Iron oxides :  Fe for Ferrum and O for Oxygen. Under chemical valency Iron (Fe) can have bonding between Oxygen only in two forms FeO and Fe2O3. Some times they combine and then we get Fe3O4 which is also called as the common rust .

Sorry not preaching but more dissemination of information which I also receive from may forum participants in this forum and enrich my awareness.

More seriously how the market and hence MGX and others will behave on Monday after DJ fall down on Friday night is the key question.

Regards


----------



## chansw

*Chinese move past Mt Gibson threshold*

Kevin Andrusiak
October 24, 2007 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22637921-643,00.html

CHINESE investors have used creep provisions under the Corporations Law to squeeze past the 19.9 per cent threshold in rising iron ore miner Mount Gibson.

Apac Resources, which is registered in the tax haven of Bermuda but is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, now controls 160.8 million shares in Mount Gibson, or 20.3 per cent. 

Normally, any shareholding in a company beyond 19.9 per cent automatically triggers the announcement of takeover intentions but under rarely used provisions in the Corporations Law, a company is permitted to gain a maximum 3 per cent of company shares every six months. 

According to company records, Apac became a substantial shareholder in October last year, with a stake of 48.4 million shares, or 10.4 per cent, worth about $34 million. 

Apac's stake is now worth about $443 million as Mount Gibson ramps up production at its high-grade hematite project at Koolan Island in the north of Western Australia. 

Mount Gibson yesterday shipped its millionth tonne of iron ore from the site. 

Company managing director Luke Tonkin said he was in constant contact with Apac representatives. "My understanding is that they like the story," Mr Tonkin said. 

Mount Gibson's other big shareholder, the Cypriot-domiciled Gazmetall Holdings, controls 19.77 per cent of the company after it paid $98.8 million for a 19.89 per cent stake in November last year. 

Gazmetall Holdings is linked to Russia's biggest iron ore player, Metalloinvest, and is controlled by Alisher Usmanov, who is believed to be Russia's 18th richest man, with a personal fortune of $US5.5 billion ($6.2 billion). 

Not to be outdone by its Chinese rivals, Gazmetall also bought shares in Mount Gibson during August and September, after letting its shareholding slip to around 17 per cent. 

According to Mount Gibson's annual report, the company improved its sales of iron ore by 78 per cent last year. 

Mount Gibson wants to be producing 10 million tonnes a year by 2010 across its three WA operations. 

The board has made no secret of its intentions to look for more acquisitions to further consolidate the junior end of the iron ore sector after winning last year's bitter battle for rival Aztec Resources. 

Mount Gibson shares closed 14c higher at $2.76 yesterday.


----------



## michael_selway

Hi its doing well atm

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.1 12.6 29.2 42.6 
DPS 0.0 4.2 10.4 16.9 *



> Date: 24/10/2007
> Author: Kevin Andrusiak
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 43
> Hong Kong-listed Apac Resources has lifted its holding in Australian resourcesgroup Mount Gibson Iron to 20.3%. While a move past the 19.9% threshold wouldusually trigger a mandatory takeover offer, the "creep" provisions ofthe Corporations Act allow for such an incremental rise. Mount Gibson meanwhilehas reached a milestone by shipping the first one million tonnes of ore from itshigh-grade hematite operation at Koolan Island in Western Australia. Its stockclosed at $A2.76 on 23 October 2007, a rise of $A0.14 for the day
> 
> Date: 25/10/2007
> Author: Paul Garvey
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 77
> Some mining groups have hopes for the iron ore reserves of the mid-west regionof Western Australia (WA). Luke Tonkin, the MD of Mount Gibson Iron, is not veryconfident about this region. His company began working in this area before theprice of iron ore shot up on global markets. Tonkin says there are severedifficulties for mining groups trying to work in this area - the iron ore is nothigh grade, there is a shortage of infrastructure and there are environmentaland planning restrictions. Tonkin says his company has succeeded there largelybecause its mines are already located close to infrastructure. He says the groupplans to look overseas for new opportunities





thx

MS


----------



## Nithy

As per today's stock situation, MGX have $2.89 price, Its Up. Its stock closed at $A2.89 on 29 October 2007, a rise of $A0.10 for the day.


----------



## chansw

*Mount Gibson hopeful about WA port*
November 21, 2007 - 7:10PM

http://news.smh.com.au/mount-gibson-hopeful-about-wa-port/20071121-1by9.html

Constraints at Geraldton Port in Western Australia, which have impacted Mount Gibson Iron Ltd's export volumes, are expected to ease from January next year when a new shiploader begins operations.

The iron ore producer is the port's largest customer and will account for 60 per cent of the new shiploader's 10 million tonnes per annum capacity.

Mount Gibson managing director Luke Tonkin told shareholders at the annual general meeting on Wednesday that the company had found the port to be inefficient and costly.

Mr Tonkin said the port constraints had forced the company to stockpile one million tonnes of iron ore from its three million tonnes per annum Tallering Peak operation, situated east of Geraldton.

"In the second half of this (fiscal) year, we become unconstrained by Geraldton Port when the new shiploader is up and running," he said.

The company plans to access to the main pit at its Koolan Island operations in about 18 months time and is currently mining from satellite pits.

The main pit at Koolan Island is considered by Mr Tonkin to be Mount Gibson's "main prize".

The project was attained through the acquisition of Aztec Resources Ltd in February and was mined between 1965 and 1993 by the then-BHP Ltd.

Mount Gibson recommenced iron ore production early this year and the first shipment followed in June.

The Perth-headquartered company expects to mine the main pit at Koolan Island in 18 to 24 months time and hopes to reach its targeted ore production rate of four million tonnes per annum in the fourth quarter of 2009.

"The Koolan main pit will dominate earnings in three to four year's time," Mr Tonkin said.

There are possible extensions underneath the main ore body, he said.

Mount Gibson has further merger and acquisition opportunities, he added.

All resolutions were passed at the meeting.

Mount Gibson's shares closed 2.33 per cent lower at $2.51.


----------



## haemitite

I's hard t complain about a 400% share price rise

But as an ex AZR shareholder its still interesting to read 'The main pit at Koolan Island is considered by Mr Tonkin to be Mount Gibson's "main prize"'


----------



## michael_selway

haemitite said:


> I's hard t complain about a 400% share price rise
> 
> But as an ex AZR shareholder its still interesting to read 'The main pit at Koolan Island is considered by Mr Tonkin to be Mount Gibson's "main prize"'




MGX is already sellign and producing which is good, but it still has a short mine life issue?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.1 11.9 28.2 37.7 
DPS 0.0 4.2 10.4 16.9 *

thx

MS


----------



## chewy

I believe they have a big exploration budget for 08, which should help with extending reserves. And as you said they are already selling and producing through these boomer iron prices so that should leave them well cashed up for acquisitions if they want to take that route.


----------



## chansw

michael_selway said:


> MGX is already sellign and producing which is good, but it still has a short mine life issue?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 7.1 11.9 28.2 37.7
> DPS 0.0 4.2 10.4 16.9 *
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I was at the AGM myself. The MD has mentioned the company will look for M&A opportunities outside MidWest . I think the strong cashflow and advanced stage of projects has given it some advantages over its MidWest peers. 

Also, the MD mentioned to negotiate with Dambimangari people about mining the west of Koolan island which can have more potential upside.


----------



## mas888moe

Hi guys,

Does anyone know why the sudden rally in MGX? Are there any announcements due? I would like to get in but not over $2.70. What is a good price to buy MGX at?

Thank you!


----------



## jman2007

Anyone trade this today?...

What a crazy rollercoaster ride, pullback to 2.43 at one stage before rallying to close at 2.73, people who entered at 2.43 would have been happy as things were looking a bit uncertain for a while.  I wonder if people were shorting this and then coming back in at a lower level?

jman2007


----------



## jman2007

Anyone trade this today?...

What a crazy rollercoaster ride, pullback to 2.43 at one stage before rallying to close at 2.73, people who entered at 2.43 would have been happy as things were looking a bit uncertain for a while.  I wonder if people were shorting this and then coming back in at a lower level?

You might have seen a great entry today slip by mass888moe, you would have had to have been very decisive and quick though.

jman


----------



## aleckara

haemitite said:


> I's hard t complain about a 400% share price rise
> 
> But as an ex AZR shareholder its still interesting to read 'The main pit at Koolan Island is considered by Mr Tonkin to be Mount Gibson's "main prize"'




I agree. I wanted to get out of Mt Gibson after because after two times of shareholders saying 'no' they just kept extending the offer until slowly the arbitrage kicked in. All it took was for one mistake by Aztec and everyone jumped ship. They gave them almost half a year to make a mistake though.

I also found that quote very interesting. I would of held AZR like all my other stocks and done quite well.


----------



## laurie

In *Trading Halt* Material Holding now either they found more ore or its means someone has a holding for a take over 

cheers laurie


----------



## mas888moe

The second page of the announcement mentioned there was a large increase in a Company's shareholding over the weekend and were in discussions about a possible transaction - who do you think the other company is?


----------



## laurie

mas888moe said:


> The second page of the announcement mentioned there was a large increase in a Company's shareholding over the weekend and were in discussions about a possible transaction - who do you think the other company is?




Well it's either the Chinese [Apac Resources]or the Russians[Gazmetall Holdings] unless we have someone from the left field I hope it ends up with a bidding war 

cheers laurie


----------



## Mofra

mas888moe said:


> The second page of the announcement mentioned there was a large increase in a Company's shareholding over the weekend and were in discussions about a possible transaction - who do you think the other company is?




We'd have to assume at this stage it is one of the companies that have substantial interests in MGX: APAC, Gazmetall, etc.

Still wouldn't rule out the Chinese taking a higher interest either - for all the talk about their interest in securing iron ore in general, they are far more interested in hematite (discerning importers want lower processing costs, especially as magnetite uses alot of energy to process & high oil prices only increase this cost).


----------



## laurie

Well it also could end up as a JV between MGX and either the Chinese or the Russians

cheers laurie


----------



## Mofra

laurie said:


> Well it also could end up as a JV between MGX and either the Chinese or the Russians
> 
> cheers laurie



May be a possibility, however with a very low debt/equity ratio one would expect that MGX could fund production & expansion costs themselves, Extension Hill is costed as I understand it and Tallering Peak cashflows (and now Koonan Island ) should cover costs.


----------



## shinobi346

Another possibility is they're going to make a takeover offer for another company. They have a lot of money in the bank and have already eaten one company.


----------



## laurie

Good if it was true but read the announcement


> The Perth-based company announced to the market that it was made aware of a "potential transaction concerning a material shareholding in the company" over the weekend.



*IN THE COMPANY* 

cheers laurie


----------



## b4subi05

So whats the majority view amongst readers?
Takeover? Or an expansion announcement?

My guess is a takeover...


----------



## jman2007

laurie said:


> Good if it was true but read the announcement
> *IN THE COMPANY*
> 
> cheers laurie




Aye laddie, you seem to be the only one who actually read the announcement properly.

Guys, please read these kind of releases *very* carefully before jumping to conclusions.  A major transaction *IN THE COMPANY* is hardly in the  same ballpark as making a consolidated bid for a separate entity.

The line that says MGX "was made aware of a potential transaction" suggests to me that MGX were not notified or informed of this development.  Imo, the chances are that Apac and/or Gazmetal have *substansially* increased their interest (JV?..who knows?...) in MGX.  I have been highly suspicious of the Chinese interest in iron ore all along, and have always claimed that they will attempt to gain a level of interest to exert a disproportionate level of control on iron ore prices.

jman


----------



## laurie

Amazing how companies keep shareholders in the dark I mean even if they release a statement to the effect when the official announcement will be released 

cheers laurie


----------



## haemitite

Mount Gibson would be around 0.25% or so of annual seaborne iron ore trade, not much price control there


----------



## chansw

ABC news (Perth) just mentioned Gazmetall (Russian) sold their shares to APAC (Chinese). Now the Chinese group has about 40% and they have to make a takeover offer.


----------



## jman2007

haemitite said:


> Mount Gibson would be around 0.25% or so of annual seaborne iron ore trade, not much price control there




Hey haemitite,

I guess I should have worded it more precisely,what I meant was; I don't believe the Chinese will be happy to remain as the poor second cousins in the whole scheme of things, ie happily continue buying iron ore at ever increasing prices. Imo these Chinese companies will try and strategically position themselves in the sector in areas where they will certainly have an influence.  And what better place is there than as a major shareholder in an emerging company like MGX?

Looks like chansw may have confirmed this just now, can we please clairfy this "takeover" comment in chansw's post?  I assume it has something to do with the shares trading hands.

jman


----------



## chansw

jman2007 said:


> Hey haemitite,
> 
> I guess I should have worded it more precisely,what I meant was; I don't believe the Chinese will be happy to remain as the poor second cousins in the whole scheme of things, ie happily continue buying iron ore at ever increasing prices. Imo these Chinese companies will try and strategically position themselves in the sector in areas where they will certainly have an influence.  And what better place is there than as a major shareholder in an emerging company like MGX?
> 
> Looks like chansw may have confirmed this just now, can we please clairfy this "takeover" comment in chansw's post?  I assume it has something to do with the shares trading hands.
> 
> jman



It is not my comment as that is from ABC 7:00pm news on TV in Perth. They mentioned about any shareholder over 19.9% triggers a takeover. Can someone confirm this, please? According to the reporter, APAC bought the Gazmetall share holding in MGX and now sitting on 40%. Anyone from Perth watched the ABC News tonight?


----------



## kerosam

huh, i must be missing out... is it compulsory for the chinese to make that take ouver if they sold 40%? 

i hold mgx.



chansw said:


> ABC news (Perth) just mentioned Gazmetall (Russian) sold their shares to APAC (Chinese). Now the Chinese group has about 40% and they have to make a takeover offer.


----------



## jman2007

Yeah it is still a bit confusing atm,

I imagine we'll find out sometime in the morning though, although I feel a little bit uneasy about this whole arrangement tbh.  I hope it doesn't get nasty.

jman


----------



## chansw

kerosam said:


> huh, i must be missing out... is it compulsory for the chinese to make that take ouver if they sold 40%?
> 
> i hold mgx.



This is to correct what I wrote before. When the share holding is over 19.9%, it triggers the announcement of takeover intention. That means they don't have to make a takeover but they need to announce their takeover intention.


----------



## haemitite

chansw said:


> It is not my comment as that is from ABC 7:00pm news on TV in Perth. They mentioned about any shareholder over 19.9% triggers a takeover. Can someone confirm this, please? According to the reporter, APAC bought the Gazmetall share holding in MGX and now sitting on 40%. Anyone from Perth watched the ABC News tonight?



Unless its the creep provision

And 20% ain't creep 

Lets hope it isn't a lowball bid

I have to type 100 characters so my guess is 3.20


----------



## chansw

haemitite said:


> Unless its the creep provision
> 
> And 20% ain't creep
> 
> Lets hope it isn't a lowball bid
> 
> I have to type 100 characters so my guess is 3.20




Sorry, haemitite. I think APAC only needs to make an annoucement of takeover intention and not necessary a takeover offer. Based on Aspect Huntley earning forecast for Jun 09, it is 33.1 cents per cent and $3.2 is PE 9.67. If the iron ore price is going to have a 30%+ increase this year and the outlook is still strong until at least 2010 (which a lot of experts said that before), do you think MGX can be traded at a higher PE? Would that be better MGX not to be taken over at this stage as its production and cashflow are soaring. What do others think about this?


----------



## laurie

It depends on what the board recommends to the shareholders if they accept the offer it will be a friendly takeover if not then expect a hostile reaction from the Chinese interesting thou if the 40% is correct they would have at least 2 if not 3 of their members on the MGX board interesting day ahead

cheers laurie


----------



## kerosam

how about MGX's neighbours? who are the biggies that is in close proximity to MGX's mines? a fren holding MGX was making a wild guess that ZFX could be a candidate since their AGM take over fell thru ( or not)... not following the ZFX-AGM saga.

chart wise- RSI picking up & first time convincely above the 10 day MA.


----------



## chansw

laurie said:


> It depends on what the board recommends to the shareholders if they accept the offer it will be a friendly takeover if not then expect a hostile reaction from the Chinese interesting thou if the 40% is correct they would have at least 2 if not 3 of their members on the MGX board interesting day ahead
> 
> cheers laurie



If there is a takeover from APAC, I don't think their representatives on the board can be involved in the decision of the takeover as there is a conflict of interest. Like SDL and GBG merge talk last year, George Jones, the Chairman of both companies was not involved. When Mount Gibson took over Aztec, there was a stage when the shareholding of Aztec from Mount Gibson passed over 50% and Mount Gibson mentioned they could control the board once that passed 50%. If what ABC news reported was correct, I am hoping the share price will move up significantly today when MGX resumes trading before they can get to 50% or even offer a takeover.


----------



## chansw

kerosam said:


> huh, i must be missing out...
> i hold mgx.




Could you remember the part talking about the iron ore companies? I hope I did not hear the wrong thing and that is why I want someone from Perth who watched the news to confirm.


----------



## jman2007

MGX announcement out this morning,

MGX will be reviewing the transasction and will intend to act in the best interest of all holders, including minority holders. The transaction will be subject to review by the Commonwealth Foreign Investment Review Board.  A substansial shareholder notice has already been lodged with ASX.

Guys does this actually require shareholder approval at all?

jman


----------



## laurie

I'm at a loss why our market is down when the DOW is up  and as for MGX well for the life of me cannot understand it being in the red if anyone can shed light on the subject please do as I have given up trying to work our market out 

cheers laurie


----------



## arms

The Dow was down 37 odd points at the close.

MGX no certainty of anything here, Shougang is declaring its holding as being a seperate company so no requirement to move to takeover as they have not crossed the threshold.

All very muddy and will take time to sort out.

Why is it down, who knows not a rational market at the moment, fear rules, and in uncertain times uncertainty in a company leads to a share price fall.

Hopefully once everyone fully understands what is occurring we will see some price action, until then nothing is certain.


----------



## arms

Reviewing the conditions of the share sale, quickly I may add, it would appear that one of the conditions is that the takeover board etc give permission for the go ahead to takeover.

So without a full read and understanding the chances of progressing to takeover would appear good.

Very muddy.


----------



## kerosam

laurie said:


> I'm at a loss why our market is down when the DOW is up  and as for MGX well for the life of me cannot understand it being in the red if anyone can shed light on the subject please do as I have given up trying to work our market out
> 
> cheers laurie




Experts are advising investors & traders to tread carefully... unless we hit some ground regarding this global crisis (or soon to have global crisis), IMHO, i view every upward as some sort of a dead cat bounce.

Fund managers might be buying on the weak (since most of them buy for the long term) but I think individual investors/traders are taking profits or cutting losses when there are any opportunities.

As for our beloved MGX, high $2.80...  hope it'll pick up pace... the ann sounds as if there's a fair bit of procedures & red tape to go thru.


----------



## laurie

kerosam

Yeh had already assumed what you said was happening to the market,was hoping for clean T/O offer interesting times ahead 

cheers laurie


----------



## jman2007

Looks like this could get ugly folks,

I'm somewhat confused over the murky relationship that is purported to exist between Shougang and APAC Resources, they are joint investors in WA's iron ore proponent Australasian Resourcs, and have senior executives in common. Apparently according to the Corporations Act, Shougang would only be a related party to APAC if they held a 20% interest, compared to their current 14.8% holding.

It will be up to MGX to prove that there is a material relationship here, and that it is not just two companies who share a common desire to invest in an emerging iron ore producer.  Good luck to MGX, they'll need it trying to delve into the murky world of chinese business interests, where there will be a myrid of cross share-holdings and complicated joint interests.

ASIC's refusal to become involved in the turmoil will have sparked outrage from MGX's other shareholders and management alike, ASIC could have set an example here and set a benchmark of allowable business practices for foreign owned companies purchasing stakes in Australian companies.  Instead they're the only ones who don't seem the least bit concerned by this!

jman


----------



## haemitite

The good news from Merrills

*Shareholder change should be ignored for now​*
Shougang’s proposed purchase of 19.7% stake in MGX, if combined with 22% in which they also have an interest, could mean that Shougang is forced to bid $2.81/sh. At this stage, we do not believe that Shougang intends to bid for theminorities. We also believe the MGX board will seek to minimise Shougang’s influence, in the absence of a full bid at a price reflection a control premium.​
*We have upgraded earnings on the quarterly report​*
Operationally the company is very strong, with production above our expectations, H1 profit of $32m ahead of our $25m, entirely on revenue, due to elimination of Geraldton selling discount. The production report included the unaudited H1 NPAT but no other data. We believe the main difference was currency hedging and the end of the Geraldton price discount.​
*Earnings forecast changes​*FY09 up 4%, FY10 up 2.7%, FY11 up 2.4%.​*
Price target to $3.60/sh​*Our price target represents 10.5 x FY09E EPS, and a 20% premium to our NPV, which we believe is justified because of the scarcity of iron ore pure plays, and the upside potential to our current iron ore forecasts.​
*MGX is clean leverage to the iron ore settlement​*
Iron prices looking strong, and contract price expectations continue to rise. A 70% iron ore price increase puts the company on 5.9x in FY09, and 3.6x FY10, and we recommend purchase for leverage to above expectation​


----------



## jman2007

Thnx for the info heamitite,

Merrill appear to be particularly bullish re the companies potential, although I think this latest development could provide a distraction for management, since the exact intentions of the two major Chinese investors looks uncertain at this stage.  It'll be mighty interesting what impact this forecast has on the sp come Monday

jman


----------



## katalyst

Things look quite positive for MGX. I'd love to see a close above $3 we nearly got there today. Bluesky if it can get above $3, I'll be watching it closely. I dont hold btw, not yet anyway.


----------



## Go Nuke

Yes indeed if It closes about $3 I might consider getting in...but if it doesn't.....it looks like something of a triple top to me?

I mean I don't know much about MGX though if they are dealing with the Chinese lets hope it doesn't go the way of CFE

Thoughts anyone?


----------



## katalyst

Thanks for the chart. MGX are actually producing. I think they're trying to pump out more ore and expand they're resource. I'm not 100% about the Chinese involvement. Merrill Lynch and JBWere have targets of $3.60 from memory.


----------



## chewy

nothing like cfe.  cfe are magnetite so they need heaps of $ to set it up - so they need chinese (or someone) to fund them to be able to afford to ever set it up. mgx are purely hematite and already producing and earning heaps so don't need any $ from anyone


----------



## jman2007

Aaah yes,

The old triple peak chestnut again.  I think a big factor in MGX's resurgence has obviously already been stated, they have a good solid cashflow and production is in full swing.  

Additionally, they seem to have made significant headway in resolving the bottleneck problems at the Geraldton Port. You can mine iron ore till you're blue in the face, but if you can't get it to the market it's about as valuable as lawnmower clippings.

jman


----------



## haemitite

More so that analysts are now talking 60% price rises,  as opposed to 30% to 50% tops a few weeks back.


----------



## katalyst

Looks like it could break through $3 heaps of sellers were/are lined up there. Seems like someones chomping through them atm.


----------



## agro

this one has been kept in the dark for a while

earnings report out today, 32m profit! well done MGX

too bad no dividends have been announced though 

Chinese must be on a good thing - takeover talks still going on throughout the registry this week


----------



## shinobi346

Yea the dividend bit was the part that interested me the most. Unfortunately its still not on the tables  yet.


----------



## agro

anyone have a suggestion as to why this finished up 2cents late in the day on Friday?

surly it can't be the exercise of options alone..

i thought MGX was investigating their register at the moment..


----------



## agro

no one offered to comment so i thought i'd ask again for why MGX is up as high as 3.15 today?

i thought they were in talks with the chinese


----------



## TheAbyss

How about a 65% increase in their resource value less any hedged prices? MGX are producing now and can take advantage of the market situation as opposed to the hopeful explorers out there who may not produce anything in the current boom IMO.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23231755-5005200,00.html


----------



## agro

well there you have it boys and girls, 32 million shares traded today and new record highs

*"Mount Gibson to apply to the Takeovers Panel*"

Mount Gibson Iron Limited (“Mount Gibson”) refers to its announcement on 31 January 2008 regarding the conditional sale by Gazmetall Holding Cyprus Ltd (“Gazmetall”) of Gazmetall’s 156.8 million shares in Mount Gibson (representing approximately 19.73% of Mount Gibson’s issued capital) to Shougang Concord International Enterprises Company Limited (“Shougang Concord”).
In that announcement, the Board stated that it was making inquiries in relation to the transaction. Those inquiries were focused on the nature of the relationship between Shougang Concord and APAC Resources Ltd (“APAC Resources”), the owner of 160.8 million shares in Mount Gibson (representing approximately 20.2% of Mount Gibson’s issued capital).
As a result of these inquiries, Mount Gibson has applied to the Takeovers Panel seeking a declaration of unacceptable circumstances (and accompanying orders) in relation to the sale of Mount Gibson shares from Gazmetall to Shougang Concord.


----------



## laurie

Well the next target price will now be $4 add a 35% premium if a takeover takes place and we end up with +- $5.50 even so that still is a very cheap buy for the Chinese I hope it falls through 

cheers laurie


----------



## agro

laurie said:


> Well the next target price will now be $4 add a 35% premium if a takeover takes place and we end up with +- $5.50 even so that still is a very cheap buy for the Chinese I hope it falls through
> 
> cheers laurie




i wouldn't like a company with such growth potential to be taken over!!

$5.50 we get from an offer


----------



## chansw

agro said:


> i wouldn't like a company with such growth potential to be taken over!!
> 
> $5.50 we get from an offer




Yes, I agree. MGX certainly has very good growth potential. The following is from stocknessmonster.com today


----------



## agro

was high as 3.35 today now currently trading in the red..

did people profit take or news related price movement?


----------



## agro

*Mount Gibson Iron Limited – Panel Receives Application*

news out just now... price keep steady around $3 very interesting


----------



## agro

Chinese stake needs scrutinyFont Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Bryan Frith | February 19, 2008


WAYNE Swan will no doubt be closely observing Mt Gibson Iron Ore's complaint to the Takeovers Panel about the recent purchase of 19.73 per cent of the emerging iron ore producer by the state-owned Shougang Corp of China.

The panel application comes at the same time that the Rudd Government has announced that investments in Australian companies by foreign government-controlled entities, including sovereign wealth funds, will be subject to greater scrutiny.

The Government is concerned that such entities "may not operate solely in accordance with commercial considerations, and may instead pursue broader political or strategic objectives that could be contrary to Australia's national interest".

Shougang bought the 19.73 per cent stake just over two weeks ago from the Russian group Gazmetall, which is controlled by the Russian billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Vasiliy Ansimov. The purchase will require foreign investment approval.

Mt Gibson reacted with suspicion, stating that it was making inquiries in relation to the transaction. Mt Gibson was no doubt concerned that Shougang was already a significant shareholder in Mt Gibson's other major shareholder, Hong Kong's APAC Resources (formerly Shanghai Merchants), which owns 20.22 per cent of Mt Gibson.

Moreover, until a few months ago Shougang would have been unable to acquire Gazmetall's shareholding without first extending a takeover bid to all Mt Gibson shareholders. That's because it owned more than 20 per cent of APAC, giving it a deemed relevant interest in that company's 20.22 per cent stake, and the Gazmetall purchase would have resulted in a 40 per cent relevant interest.

However, in July last year, APAC made a share placement that diluted Shougang's shareholding to around 15 per cent.

Interestingly -- perhaps significantly -- Shougang was the placement agent, which meant that it was involved in determining into whose hands the shares went.

Logic suggests the panel applications mean that Mt Gibson believes Shougang and APAC are associates and acting in cahoots to exercise control over the company. It may also consider that the APAC placement was made to deliberately reduce Shougang, below the point where it would have a relevant interest in the stake, thereby clearing the way for it to acquire Gazmetall's stake.

If so, it's tempting to wonder whether the Chinese have been seeking to stamp their influence on Mt Gibson over the past 18 months, and whether the proposed transaction is simply the latest move.

In June 2006, Mt Gibson received a requisition from the Hong Kong-based Sun Hung Kai Investment Services, seeking to appoint Wong Peng Chong to the board. SHK held 11 per cent of the capital on behalf of another Hong Kong group, the investment company COL Capital.

It so happens that COL Capital is a major shareholder in APAC, with about 11 per cent of the capital.

COL said it wanted a board representative as a means of facilitating greater dialogue between the company's largest shareholder and the board, and that many shareholders were comforted by the expectation that COL had a "direct insight" into the management of the company. Mt Gibson didn't think those were valid reasons to appoint Wong.

Shortly after, Mt Gibson launched a hostile bid for Aztec Resources and, with its attention diverted, agreed to the appointment of Alan Jones, who was nominated by COL. The shareholder meeting was cancelled.

In October that year, Mt Gibson was surprised when two small shareholders separately nominated candidates for election to the board at the annual meeting on December 1.

Rim Capital, which had 0.18 per cent of the capital, and which had associations with Col Capital, nominated Robert Willcocks, while Argyle Street Management, with 1.31 per cent of the capital, nominated Kin Chan.

Mt Gibson opposed their election, arguing, among other things, that the present board of seven directors was optimal for a company of its size. Three existing directors -- chairman William Willis, executive director Ian Macliver and Alan Jones -- also stood for re-election.

On October 31, Shanghai Merchants acquired Col Capital's 10.6 per cent stake in Mt Gibson and also bought Aztec shares, intending to accept the scrip bid and lift its Mt Gibson stake to about 14 per cent.

Soon after, John Byrne's Cambrian Mining sold a 19.9 per cent stake in Mt Gibson to Gazmetall, which would dilute to 14 per cent after the acquisition of Aztec.

Before the AGM was held, Mt Gibson became concerned about the motives of the Chinese shareholders and persuaded Gazmetall to support the board in rejecting the two board candidates.

As it turned out, it was extremely close. Willcocks and Chan were defeated by only 10 million votes -- 178 million for to 189 million against. Moreover, Willis and Macliver only got home by 23 million votes -- 195 million for, 174 million against. Jones romped in with 369 million votes for and only 500,000 against.

As Gazmetall voted for Willis, Macliver and Jones and against Willcocks and Chan, it seems apparent that Shanghai Merchants/APAC and related Chinese interests voted for the duo put forward by Rim Capital and Argyle Street Management, and against Willis and Macliver, but for Jones.

Had the Chinese succeeded, they would have had three representatives on a board of seven, which would have given them significant influence; moreover, it arguably would have demonstrated an ability to take board control if they wished.

Then there's Australasian Resources. Last March the company announced it had agreed to issue shares and options to raise up to $98 million to entities associated with Shougang Corp to help fund the company's Balmoral South iron ore project in the Pilbara. One of those entities was APAC.

And last month, Metals X announced that it had raised $59.4 million through a share placement to APAC, which it described as backed by several Chinese steel mills and Shougang.

It also won't have been lost on Mt Gibson that Shougang and APAC share the same chairman, Cao Zhong.

Moreover, the share sale agreement between Gazmetall and Shougang provides that either party may terminate if the Federal Court or a Supreme Court were to find the agreement unlawful or unenforceable for any reason or the Takeovers Panel finally determined the transaction would involve unacceptable circumstances.

Such a provision is commonplace in a takeover bid, but not for a share-sale agreement. Arguably it demonstrates some concern that the proposed sale may be challenged, on the grounds that Shougang and APAC are associates. If the panel were to make such a finding it would remain to be seen what orders it would make.

Presumably, Mt Gibson's starting point would be the prevention of the transaction, but it may also be unhappy about leaving Gazmetall and APAC as major shareholders and seek to have the shares vested with ASIC and sold.

Whether the panel would go that far is another matter. But in the present heady market for iron ore, there may be plenty of buyers.

Shougang agreed to pay Gazmetall $2.60 a Mt Gibson share, but its share price jumped 15c yesterday to $3.22 following news that Japan's Nippon Steel and South Korea's Posco had agreed to a 65 per cent price hike for iron ore supplied by Brazil's Vale.


----------



## meganut

Excellent info Agro but what does this mean for the MGX share price?
I personally would opt out if MGX were taken over with a major Chinese influence, I can only see good things for MGX if it stays controlled as is or was taken over by an existing Aussie identity such as RIO or BHP.

Anyones thoughts?


----------



## rustyheela

Aside from who's buying wot and who owns wot, the price is trending nicely apart from that push down/shakeout 3 days ago. Iron orers should only strengthen as the chinese ore price announcements gather steam.


----------



## agro

take over announcement released just now

proceedings are to commence with chinese.. asic suggest this needs checking out and put a hold on the Shougang share transaction.


----------



## rustyheela

not really a "takeover" announcement as such, or a trading halt would o been called. $4.00 per share would b a good price


----------



## shinobi346

Thats only a premium of about 15%. They'd have to pay a lot more than that to get MGX out of my pockets.


----------



## laurie

You may not have any say in that if they already hold 40% if they reach 50% acceptance level then its automatically over red rover 

cheers laurie


----------



## shinobi346

Please explain. They need 90%+ to force me to sell. 

And if the Takeovers Panel does find that they own over 20% of the shares already then that will mean that they have breached the rules. Gaining more than 20% ownership requires either shareholder approval or all shareholders being made the same offer for their shares. Nobody can just swoop in and grab over 20% of a companies shares without having it run through the shareholders first.


----------



## jman2007

This is heating up,

Looks like the break might be on again at this rate, opened at 2.50 and so far has added another 26c, or 7.5%.

This is what my understanding of the proposed transaction is:



jman2007 said:


> I'm somewhat confused over the murky relationship that is purported to exist between Shougang and APAC Resources, they are joint investors in WA's iron ore proponent Australasian Resourcs, and have senior executives in common. Apparently according to the Corporations Act, Shougang would only be a related party to APAC if they held a 20% interest, compared to their current 14.8% holding.




Laurie, I assume you mean that if APAC and Shougang are found to be related parties, then this is how you arrive at your 40% ownership figure.  I guess this is the aim of the Take Over Panel proceedings, to prove this or otherwise, and MGX will be arguing very strongly that there is a material connection here.

Shinobi, I imagine that the 19.73% purchase of MGX from Gazmetall was carefully managed to avoid seeking shareholder approval in the first place, but as you mentioned a breach would appear likely if it is proven that Shougang own more than 20% of MGX through the APAC-Shougang connection.


jman


----------



## laurie

jman2007 said:


> This is heating up,
> 
> Looks like the break might be on again at this rate, opened at 2.50 and so far has added another 26c, or 7.5%.
> 
> This is what my understanding of the proposed transaction is:
> 
> 
> 
> Laurie, I assume you mean that if APAC and Shougang are found to be related parties, then this is how you arrive at your 40% ownership figure.  I guess this is the aim of the Take Over Panel proceedings, to prove this or otherwise, and MGX will be arguing very strongly that there is a material connection here.
> 
> Shinobi, I imagine that the 19.73% purchase of MGX from Gazmetall was carefully managed to avoid seeking shareholder approval in the first place, but as you mentioned a breach would appear likely if it is proven that Shougang own more than 20% of MGX through the APAC-Shougang connection.
> 
> 
> jman




Yes that's what I mean jman2007

shinobi346 you can increase your holdings over 20% by using the creep provision over a six month time frame legally

cheers laurie


----------



## jman2007

laurie said:


> Yes that's what I mean jman2007
> 
> shinobi346 you can increase your holdings over 20% by using the creep provision over a six month time frame legally
> 
> cheers laurie




Laurie,

A quick rundown on creep provisions would be much appreciated. I assume it means a gradual accumulation of smaller parcels of shares within that 6 month time window?...obviously putting 2 and 2 together this could mean Shougang going over the 20% threshold.

Cheers
jman


----------



## laurie

jman2007 said:


> Laurie,
> 
> A quick rundown on creep provisions would be much appreciated. I assume it means a gradual accumulation of smaller parcels of shares within that 6 month time window?...obviously putting 2 and 2 together this could mean Shougang going over the 20% threshold.
> 
> Cheers
> jman




Here is a recent example:



> KERRY STOKES'S Seven Network reignited the rumour mill last night, revealing that it has again pounced on West Australian Newspapers to increase its stake in the publisher to 19.4 per cent, just short of the 19.9 per cent threshold after which a full bid must be made.
> 
> The broadcaster has gobbled up more than 4.2 million WAN shares since early August because it saw "an opportunity to further build on our investment given West Australian News' recent share price history".
> 
> Sure enough, the stock has slumped almost 18 per cent since early September.
> 
> But it has the market wondering again: is this where Kerry Stokes will spend his spare cash, buying his home-town publisher? Seven has been sitting on a stash of $2.6 billion since its private equity sell-down last year, prompting ABN Amro analysts to predict last week that it "could make a move any time".
> 
> Seven has indicated it has a strategic interest, demanding a seat on the publisher's board.
> 
> _But market players said they would not bet on a bid. Stokes might instead use the "creep" provision in the takeover rules, raising his stake by 3 per cent every six months, they said.
> 
> That saves him from having to fork out a hefty takeover premium. And, with his blocking stake, there is no need to hurry while WAN is still one of the most expensive media stocks in the country._




cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

http://www.finsia.com/cms/data/live/files/21679.pdf

This site has some good information on takeovers

cheers laurie


----------



## arms

Yes, creep provision can be used  but under the Section 611 (Item 9) of the Corporations Act to "creep" by no more than 3% each six months.

So under the application to the Takeover panel MGX are asking for a ruling on the shougang share purchase which will be deemed illegal if they are connected to APAC forcing the sale to shougang to be cancelled.

No one can legally own from 20.3% which APAC owned and use a subsidary company to increase their holdings by 18.9% in one hit.

The main thing that MGX are trying to ensure is that no one can come in and say we own zyx% and want x amount of positions on the board and a say in io sales etc.

So the statement "You may not have any say in that if they already hold 40% if they reach 50% acceptance level then its automatically over red rover" is very misleading as they cannot legally hold this amount in the way it has been done and declare any association at all, under creep provisions it would take them 3 plus years to reach the 40%.

So if they have an association under the application by MGX they will have two choices, not proceed with the sale or launch a takeover bid and they will require 90% to reach compulsory acquisition. Remember that if MGX get the orders they are asking for the sale to Shougang cannot proceed so APAC will only hold their 20.3%, which will be the shareholding to launch their takeover from, not 40%. 
If they get 50% they may have control of the company but the holder can still hold his shares, which has been beneficial to shareholders in the past.

So to put it simply nothing is over UNTIL it is over and many things will play out before it even gets to this stage.

Who knows what they are thinking, and they have been shown to be willing to pay a healthy premium to secure a company they want. Anything under $4.50 will not have legs.


----------



## michael_selway

arms said:


> Yes, creep provision can be used  but under the Section 611 (Item 9) of the Corporations Act to "creep" by no more than 3% each six months.
> 
> So under the application to the Takeover panel MGX are asking for a ruling on the shougang share purchase which will be deemed illegal if they are connected to APAC forcing the sale to shougang to be cancelled.
> 
> No one can legally own from 20.3% which APAC owned and use a subsidary company to increase their holdings by 18.9% in one hit.
> 
> The main thing that MGX are trying to ensure is that no one can come in and say we own zyx% and want x amount of positions on the board and a say in io sales etc.
> 
> So the statement "You may not have any say in that if they already hold 40% if they reach 50% acceptance level then its automatically over red rover" is very misleading as they cannot legally hold this amount in the way it has been done and declare any association at all, under creep provisions it would take them 3 plus years to reach the 40%.
> 
> So if they have an association under the application by MGX they will have two choices, not proceed with the sale or launch a takeover bid and they will require 90% to reach compulsory acquisition. Remember that if MGX get the orders they are asking for the sale to Shougang cannot proceed so APAC will only hold their 20.3%, which will be the shareholding to launch their takeover from, not 40%.
> If they get 50% they may have control of the company but the holder can still hold his shares, which has been beneficial to shareholders in the past.
> 
> So to put it simply nothing is over UNTIL it is over and many things will play out before it even gets to this stage.
> 
> Who knows what they are thinking, and they have been shown to be willing to pay a healthy premium to secure a company they want. Anything under $4.50 will not have legs.




Yeah I sold too early this one I think.

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.1 14.1 39.9 58.7 
DPS 0.0 5.0 20.7 33.1 *



> Date: 15/2/2008
> Author: Michael Vaughan
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 62
> Mount Gibson Iron will ask Australia's Takeovers Panel to investigatealleged links between two of its shareholders. Mount Gibson believes that thereis a direct link between 20.3% shareholder APAC Resources and Chinese steelgroup, Shougang, which purchased 19.7% of Mount Gibson in January 2008. Shougangitself owns 18.1% of APAC, the two groups have some directors in common, andthey have co-invested in other projects. Rob Patterson, of Argo Investments,said that these two shareholders own 40% of Mount Gibson. Another person notedthat the two Chinese groups have control of Mount Gibson. Those concerned wantthe stock exchange and the Australian Securities & Investments Commission toinvestigate this matter


----------



## laurie

yeh this share was truly manipulated when it was around the .80c -.85c and a lot of investors got impatient and sold,I must admit I had the very same thoughts,but my holding in MGX got a boost from Aztec being taken over by MGX so I went long glad I did  

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

deleted


----------



## chansw

*China's Shougang will accept 65 pct iron ore price rise - official*
03.06.08, 6:30 AM ET

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/03/06/afx4738713.html

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China's fourth largest steel firm, Shougang, is prepared to accept a 65 pct increase in the price of imported iron ore this year, said the company's general manager, Zhu Jimin. 

Speaking at the meeting of the Beijing delegation to the National People's Congress, Zhu said that the China Iron and Steel Association had already accepted a 65 pct rise. 

'We will also accept this rate,' he said.

Baosteel settled on a 65 pct price rise with the Brazilian iron ore supplier, Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (nyse: RIO - news - people ) (Vale). However, Vale's Australian counterparts, BHP Billiton (nyse: BBL - news - people ) and Rio Tinto, are believed to be seeking a premium of 5 pct as a result of the region's superior logistics. 

He said that a 65 pct increase in iron ore prices would increase the company's costs by 350 yuan per ton. 

Zhu said that all the world's steel producers were facing similar cost problems, not only as a result of iron ore price increases, but also because of rises in the price of coking coal. 

*He also said that Shougang was still planning to increase its stake in Australia's Mount Gibson Iron Ltd.

The company acquired a 19.7 pct stake in the mining firm in February. 'We have such a plan (to expand), but to what extent our stake will rise, I still can't predict,:' he said. *


----------



## rustyheela

yeah, but what does it all actually mean? takeover, good / bad for the stock price? any thoughts anyone, coz as a mgx holder, ive got absolutely no idea!!


----------



## jman2007

rustyheela said:


> yeah, but what does it all actually mean? takeover, good / bad for the stock price? any thoughts anyone, coz as a mgx holder, ive got absolutely no idea!!




Rustyheela,

Earlier post from arms.  It also depends what timeframe you are talking about, 2-3 months or 24 months?



arms said:


> So if they have an association under the application by MGX they will have two choices, not proceed with the sale or launch a takeover bid and they will require 90% to reach compulsory acquisition. Remember that if MGX get the orders they are asking for the sale to Shougang cannot proceed so APAC will only hold their 20.3%, which will be the shareholding to launch their takeover from, not 40%.
> If they get 50% they may have control of the company but the holder can still hold his shares, which has been beneficial to shareholders in the past.
> 
> Who knows what they are thinking, and they have been shown to be willing to pay a healthy premium to secure a company they want. Anything under $4.50 will not have legs.




I tend to agree with this line of thought,

Although a lot of wrangling and pain may have to be endured before investors are notified of the outcome.  Zhu Jimin of Shougang is also hedging his bets here, hinting at a further increase in their stake in MGX, but to what extent?...well no-one knows yet.  

If the transaction is deemed to be illegal, imo the "APAC-Shoungang Conglomerate" could potentially launch a hostile takeover bid to wrest control of the company once and for all, but purely speculation at this point.  I believe this would have a positive impact on the sp, since as arms has pointed out, they will have to come forward with a very competitive offer.  

But that is still a long way away.

jman


----------



## laurie

Well at least it will get us into the new financial year as far as capital gains tax is concerned but anything over $5 will make me a happy chappy rather hold but Chinese cash is king right now look at what happen to AED

cheers laurie


----------



## arms

Well any takeover talk is always good for a companies share price as investors expect a healthy premium to the current price. In the current market this talk is gold as it has helped MGX share price maintain a healthy price despite what can only be said to be a shocking market at the moment.

I have always held that whilst some great short term gain can be taken from a takeover the true value remains in the shareholder ownership and the plans in place by management to grow into a very profitable company, we have just reached the start of this point as indicated in the last qrtly.

This also helps capital gains as one can slowly sell the shares to suit ones capital gains situation in the forthcoming years, as a long term shareholder from 15 cents this is very attractive as a takeover at the moment would mean a six figure tax bill on this. 

My take is that the Chinese do not wish for a takeover but a controlling interest so that they can reap all the benefits without the worries of outright ownership, plus they can see the company is on the right track in its present form. This is their current ploy in their recent purchase by using smoke and mirrors, will the TOV be fooled or will they see through it time will tell.

The only question to me that really matters is have they gone to far, have they now got MGX management offside and ruined a previous good working relationship? Whichever way the TOV rule can the two reform a relationship that will allow the company to run effectively, a major shareholder offside can have ongoing effects that do not benefit the company. One must remember that MGX have stated that the Chinese have not been very helpful in sorting this all out.

So the final washup I believe from all this will be that no matter which way the TOV rule a takeover bid will have to be made as the two parties will have more than likely a poor relationship and if the Chinese wish to control the company they will only be able to do it by a takeover. The other option is a split board and continual infighting at board level.  

Time will tell, many roads to travel and at the end of the day lets all hope that whichever way it heads it is a profitable outcome for shareholders.

Arms


----------



## chansw

haemitite said:


> The good news from Merrills
> 
> *Shareholder change should be ignored for now​*
> Shougang’s proposed purchase of 19.7% stake in MGX, if combined with 22% in which they also have an interest, could mean that Shougang is forced to bid $2.81/sh. At this stage, we do not believe that Shougang intends to bid for theminorities. We also believe the MGX board will seek to minimise Shougang’s influence, in the absence of a full bid at a price reflection a control premium.​
> *We have upgraded earnings on the quarterly report​*
> Operationally the company is very strong, with production above our expectations, H1 profit of $32m ahead of our $25m, entirely on revenue, due to elimination of Geraldton selling discount. The production report included the unaudited H1 NPAT but no other data. We believe the main difference was currency hedging and the end of the Geraldton price discount.​
> *Earnings forecast changes​*FY09 up 4%, FY10 up 2.7%, FY11 up 2.4%.​*
> Price target to $3.60/sh​*Our price target represents 10.5 x FY09E EPS, and a 20% premium to our NPV, which we believe is justified because of the scarcity of iron ore pure plays, and the upside potential to our current iron ore forecasts.​
> *MGX is clean leverage to the iron ore settlement​*
> Iron prices looking strong, and contract price expectations continue to rise. A 70% iron ore price increase puts the company on 5.9x in FY09, and 3.6x FY10, and we recommend purchase for leverage to above expectation​




There was an update from Merrill Lynch yesterday.

The broker has made material changes to commodity price forecasts, as well as changes to A$ and cost forecasts. 

Earnings change by +3%, +5%, and +23% in 08-10. 

Target price is $4.00 

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.


----------



## shinobi346

Takeovers Panel have put a halt on the transaction while they do further investigations of the relationship between the two chinese companies.


----------



## chansw

*An Opportunity In Mt Gibson?*
FN Arena News - April 02 2008 

By Greg Peel


Mt Gibson Iron (MGX) currently enjoys a 3/2/0 B/H/S ratio in the FNArena database, and an average target of $3.90 against a last trade of $2.92. Brokers are keen on Mt Gibson because (a) it is an iron ore producer, (b) it has excellent, capital-efficient production growth, (c) it is an iron ore producer, (d) it is trading at an attractive multiple and (e) it is an iron ore producer.


Recently Mt Gibson has been held back however, in the context of a weaker market but also due to some share registry shenanigans.


At the beginning of February a subsidiary of Chinese company Shougang purchased the 19.7% stake in Mt Gibson held by Russian company Gazmetall. The purchase price was $2.60, which was about where the stock was trading at the time. The problem was that another Chinese company - APAC - holds a 22.2% stake in Mt Gibson, and Shougang has a significant stake in APAC. Thus it could be argued Shougang had "backdoored" a stake of almost 42% without satisfying the usual takeover rules.


And that's how the Australian Takeover Panel saw it. Yesterday the Shougang purchase was cancelled. The decision provides various pros and cons.


Firstly, on the pro side, if Shougang had been allowed to keep its stake the risk was Mt Gibson senior management and independent directors would have walked. One presumes they'll stay put for now.


Secondly, the possibility arises that Shougang might decide now just to go for a full bid and be done with it. In this case a "control premium" would need to be added to the offer price. While Shougang has previously indicated it was not interested in 100%, a week is a long time in the market. Analysts are split between those assuming no full bid and those suggesting it's not beyond the realms.


If the above does not occur, Shougang could still satisfy the rules by "creeping" up its stake by 3% every six months. This would put a floor under the stock price, but is not as immediately positive.


On the con side, Shougang may yet challenge the takeover panel ruling, which means a longer period of uncertainty.


Secondly, if Shougang decides to leave it all alone then the Gazmetall stake of 22% still overhangs the market, leaving little scope for the share price to rise in the short term.


Put this all together, and the analysts largely believe an investment in Mt Gibson is a good bet. Iron ore aside, an investor would be buying into a chance of a takeover or, if that's not to be, the Gazmetall overhang will keep a lid on the price, resulting in a cheap buying opportunity. If Gazmetall sells into the market it is a good chance for investors to pick up a stock that has largely been illiquid up to now. And when the sell-down is complete, there will be little holding the share price back.


Or Gazmetall might find another single buyer.


Whatever the outcome, it would seem an investment in Mt Gibson now has little downside, other than the opportunity to average up for the clearance of the Gazmetall stake.


----------



## Mofra

chansw said:


> Firstly, on the pro side, if Shougang had been allowed to keep its stake the risk was Mt Gibson senior management and independent directors would have walked. One presumes they'll stay put for now.
> 
> 
> Secondly, the possibility arises that Shougang might decide now just to go for a full bid and be done with it. In this case a "control premium" would need to be added to the offer price. While Shougang has previously indicated it was not interested in 100%, a week is a long time in the market. Analysts are split between those assuming no full bid and those suggesting it's not beyond the realms.
> 
> 
> If the above does not occur, Shougang could still satisfy the rules by "creeping" up its stake by 3% every six months. This would put a floor under the stock price, but is not as immediately positive.




Could find out very soon given MGX is now in a trading halt. Only worry is after the AZR hostile takeover some form of "bourse karma" could force Shougang's hand rather quickly. As a further flow-on from the recent iron ore negotiations (read: RIO standoff) a greater proportion of Aussie hemetite will find its way onto the Chinese spot market (where prices are much higher) which will make it cheaper for the Chinese to buy controlling stakes in mid-cap Australian producers.


----------



## laurie

mmm this is like a soap opera playing out in front of use the problem is most of it is being played behind closed doors so guessing an outcome could come up with multiple results even picking a takeover figure would at best be pie in the sky 

cheers laurie


----------



## BankRoller

Anyone have any ideas as to what is going to happen with respect to Russian Billionaire Usmanov to Sell Mt. Gibson Stake?

Will it give the Chinese an opportunity to make a bid if USmanov sells his stake?


----------



## chansw

BankRoller said:


> Anyone have any ideas as to what is going to happen with respect to Russian Billionaire Usmanov to Sell Mt. Gibson Stake?
> 
> Will it give the Chinese an opportunity to make a bid if USmanov sells his stake?




*Miner avoids back-door takeover*
Jamie Freed 
April 4, 2008 

http://business.smh.com.au/miner-avoids-backdoor-takeover/20080403-23ie.html

MOUNT GIBSON IRON celebrated its third victory of the week yesterday when the Russian steel maker Gazmetall sold its 20 per cent stake in the West Australian iron ore miner through an institutional bookbuild rather than to a potential predator.

On Tuesday the Takeovers Panel knocked back Gazmetall's attempt to sell the holding to Shougang on the grounds that the Chinese steel maker was associated with another major Mount Gibson shareholder, Hong Kong's APAC Resources. Mount Gibson and other investors feared Shougang's purchase of the $410 million stake would be takeover by stealth.

But the panel did not comply with Mount Gibson's request to have the 20 per cent holding vested with the corporate regulator and sold to institutions through a bookbuild, so there were still worries it would be sold to another potential predator. Shougang soon announced it no longer planned to buy the stake.

Merrill Lynch yesterday conducted a bookbuild on behalf of Gazmetall with a price range between the planned $2.60 sale price to Shougang and Mount Gibson's closing price of $2.93 on Wednesday.

Before offers closed at 5pm yesterday, the managing director of Argo Investments, Rob Patterson, said his company was trying to obtain more Mount Gibson stock. "Those shares have been quite a bit higher [in the past]," he said. "We quite like the outlook for the company."

An analyst at UBS, Glyn Lawcock, this week said an open market sale of Gazmetall's stake would be positive in that it would increase the liquidity of the tightly held stock.

Since the US miner Cleveland-Cliffs bought most of Portman Mining in 2005, Mount Gibson has become Australia's largest independent iron ore miner.


----------



## arms

Trading in a tight band since the trading halt, tommorrow may see a good top up chance.

With IO price increase nearing settlement, increasing production, top management things for the future look great.

Some big bids coming through, 700,000 on the close on Friday anything is possible, takeover probably more likely now than ever.

Arms


----------



## BankRoller

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKA581620080427
good to see mgx up 6% today. perhaps the above article had something to do with it.


----------



## Agent 86

Just a couple of points on this stock - 

1. When is it expected that goverment approval for MGX's Extension Hill mine will be made?

2. Who has MGX been linked with in respect of corporate activity?

3. Is anyone getting a bit bored with their story?


----------



## TheAbyss

Anyone have a theory on what is happening wiht the Sp on MGX? I am aware that commodities in general have fallen somewhat however io would have thought IO was still a happy place to be?


----------



## speculator101

Hi Agent 86 and Abyss.

I am most def not an expert, but I have spoken to people recently that have followed this company from the start... IPO etc.
The biggest reason for the drop is the many holders hoping for a takeover that might have happened last year, but like MCC, it now has two large corporate shareholders, and neither wants to sell to the other... so there goes T.O premium.
Then there is the future funding requirements... which I might add, will be paid for in cash through current production for 2009 and beyond.
They have debt, but under %7 of companies worth... and yes in the current hysteria in the U.S and debt issues... not a positive.
Then there is the issue of MGX actually ramping up production to what they have been aiming for.
Oh, last one: After their successful takeover of AZR (which they got for an absolute bargain) they have consistently argued that they are after more acquisitions... – this would most probably be done through script…
however, many would like them to get to 10Mill tonnes a year before doing anything hasty.
If... If.. Iron Prices continue to rise as they are being forecast to do until 2011... and yeah, believe me when I say I take every word from the brokers, with a ton of salt, then MGX will recover, and well.. JBwere values them at $4.50...... soo.... but you just have to look at Fortescue and see the similarities in regards to their current fortunes.
Sorry this is long winded, but there is very little discussion on a company that I started buying into 4 years ago... and have continued to buy...
IMHO, and a believer in the long term value of MGX.
goodluck to all holders.


----------



## laurie

And that's why no dividends have been paid,priority is given to expansion or acquisitions if these fall through expect to see money returned to shareholders next year if they offered me .8c-.10c I be very happy 

cheers laurie


----------



## nunthewiser

laurie said:


> And that's why no dividends have been paid,priority is given to expansion or acquisitions if these fall through expect to see money returned to shareholders next year if they offered me .8c-.10c I be very happy
> 
> cheers laurie




LOL well with an average holding at 18.4 cents i,s be more than happy with that scenario laurie  , good solid co , thinks just market weakness stopping it in its tracks ...... and a big gday to  speculator  greeetings from geraldton long time no see


----------



## Mofra

nunthewiser said:


> LOL well with an average holding at 18.4 cents i,s be more than happy with that scenario laurie  , good solid co , thinks just market weakness stopping it in its tracks ...... and a big gday to  speculator  greeetings from geraldton long time no see



This is turning into quite the little circa-2005 MGX reunion isn't it 

On the acquisition front, the company did indicate a while ago they wouldn't strictly stick to Iron Ore, although chances are they would still prefer to deal in bulk commodities. Have to wonder who would appear to be a juicy enough target in the current circumstances, considering the softness in MGX scrip and the cost of expanding their credit facilities in readiness of a takeover/offer


----------



## Sean K

1232 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says Mount Gibson Iron (MGX.AU) is now a takeover target after recent share price weakness. News that some of MGX's customers are seeking to delay iron ore shipments saw the miner sold off hard last week. Macquarie says that even assuming a 30% drop in contract iron ore prices, MGX is trading below forecast June 2010 cash backing. Says MGX will be a takeover target as soon as the banking system rights itself. "At this level of prices, MGX offers an excellent entry into the iron ore industry for a major... or a steel company wanting to vertically integrate," ML says. Maintains Buy rating with A$3.00 target price; MGX trading up 7.0% at 76 Australian cents. (APW)


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> 1232 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says Mount Gibson Iron (MGX.AU) is now a takeover target after recent share price weakness. News that some of MGX's customers are seeking to delay iron ore shipments saw the miner sold off hard last week. Macquarie says that even assuming a 30% drop in contract iron ore prices, MGX is trading below forecast June 2010 cash backing. Says MGX will be a takeover target as soon as the banking system rights itself. "At this level of prices, MGX offers an excellent entry into the iron ore industry for a major... or a steel company wanting to vertically integrate," ML says. Maintains Buy rating with A$3.00 target price; MGX trading up 7.0% at 76 Australian cents. (APW)




Yeah I have to agree....

Merrills would probably rate this play as one of the lower-risk pure iron ore plays that they cover. MGX recently copped a target price downgrade from Merrills from $5.00 to $3.50, but considering the way these guys were chopped up last week that might also want to consider opening up a line of Asian fastfood restaurants. 

Pretty much got caught with my pants down here, basically this is back to what I paid for it last year.  A lot of rebuuilding of investor confidence required here, preferably before any predatory behaviour thankyou very much. Although as a producer, and with proven infrastructure and this could potentially fall into someone's lap rather easily I have to say...

jman


----------



## laurie

Well it can do one of three things
1. Pay a dividend 
2. Buy back 
3. None of the above

cheers laurie


----------



## adobee

well i was expecting a bigger bounce from mgx.. not at this stage i guess... still very low levels.. I think they are going to need to give some assurity to the market before we see confidence restored..  meanwhile leaves the risk takers with a good buying opportunity.


----------



## jman2007

laurie said:


> Well it can do one of three things
> 1. Pay a dividend
> 2. Buy back
> 3. None of the above
> 
> cheers laurie




Can't see a divy being paid at the moment. While it may send out a positve signal to the market, they would probably prefer to keep the cash in the kitty for the time being. And that's despite the $113.3M after tax profit for the year.

Bottom line from the AR looked pretty good to me. Cash on hand as of EOFY was $49M. Remember they will probably need to delve into the $200M debt drawdown facility to bring Extension Hill up to spec (which they _do have _Environmental approval for), of which $105M has already been used. Although one would think being DSO, this should be rather straightforward.

Rememebr these guys are still ramping up towards max production by 2010, the Koolan Island ore is quality, probably some of the best quality haematite currently coming out of Australia. The infrastructure across the board is in place (other than Extension Hill), and their performance has been strong to date. Remember there will presently be a lot of budding iron ore producers who will be a lot more concerned than MGX, and who have yet to ship one kilogram of ore to China.

jman


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Hey Jman, how ya been?

Just a note, I read in my email today Pato's have slashed their Price target from $4.20 to 75c

I think its mainly to do with the fact that some of MGX's customers said hey we've got enough Fe on the docks thanks

But I was also very very surprised to read that the idiots have hedged the AUD at 90 US cents, who on earth would hedge at that level, idiots

I have a feeling once an update is given to the mkt re the chinese customers, but more so the heavily hedged AUD we may even see further falls in the SP much like NXS's capitulation a few days ago


----------



## nunthewiser

added to very long term holding today at 55 and 56 , i do have a very low average way below this figure so this not a guide as to my idea of an perfect entry price .



go mgx for longterm biased holders


----------



## speculator101

Like you nunthewiser I have added to my position. $0.57.
I also have a very low average, however I am a little sad at the continued downward trend of MGX. Very much panic everywhere, which is both good/bad. 
This is my first real market 'crash' and I am finding it both scary and interesting. Oh yes, I have 'lost' money on many other companies... 
However, MGX is my core holding. Wise, or not, I have been there from the beginning and will stay until I think they are about to run out of ORE 

Young Trader, I am like yourself, wondering how low the s/p can go. I am quite surprised that it is now under its future earnings for 10/11...
So, I am sad to say the only way MGX and the entire IRON ORE sector will get a major bounce is a massive drop in the US Dollar,... or... the start of foreign investment i.e big buying by China, India, funds etc of quality, resources stocks (whole companies)... When this happens, who knows, but I think that it will eventually happen in some form. 
Anyway, long term holders of MGX will eventually see great returns, but of course that is little consolation right now, as your electronic money disappears into thin air.

good luck to all holders. Someone is buying up all the shares being sold.....
IMHO.


----------



## jman2007

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Jman, how ya been?
> 
> Just a note, I read in my email today Pato's have slashed their Price target from $4.20 to 75c
> 
> I think its mainly to do with the fact that some of MGX's customers said hey we've got enough Fe on the docks thanks
> 
> But I was also very very surprised to read that the idiots have hedged the AUD at 90 US cents, who on earth would hedge at that level, idiots
> 
> I have a feeling once an update is given to the mkt re the chinese customers, but more so the heavily hedged AUD we may even see further falls in the SP much like NXS's capitulation a few days ago




Howya doin' fellar?

I've had better days tbh. I took on board your comment re the hedging and went back to the AR. Can't believe I didn't pick up on it the first time I had a look.  My interpretation is that they have US$345M hedged at $AUD 0.88. What I don't quite understand is whether this contract is in place until the end of the current FY?... and to get out of it MGX will have to pay $AUS about $560M?... leading to liability in the order of another AUS$100M or so?

That is a major concern if that is more or less correct, I don't know if there is any kind of corporate safety strategy they have employed to protect them against this type of volatility? 

jman


----------



## peteai

jman2007 said:


> Howya doin' fellar?
> 
> I've had better days tbh. I took on board your comment re the hedging and went back to the AR. Can't believe I didn't pick up on it the first time I had a look.  My interpretation is that they have US$345M hedged at $AUD 0.88. What I don't quite understand is whether this contract is in place until the end of the current FY?... and to get out of it MGX will have to pay $AUS about $560M?... leading to liability in the order of another AUS$100M or so?
> 
> That is a major concern if that is more or less correct, I don't know if there is any kind of corporate safety strategy they have employed to protect them against this type of volatility?
> 
> jman




Do you mean hedging the hedging ("_corporate safety strategy they have employed to protect them against this type of volatility_")

I guess they may have been worried if the $A would go higher when it was in the 90s it would really hurt - also in one sense with the huge debts (budget , households etc etc in the $US should the $US be so high - we may be due for another currency realignment) can the US sustain such a high currency when it is already running huge deficits.

I know that money flows to the US in times of uncertainty but is it the safe currency that it used to be - is that the next bubble to burst


----------



## Agent 86

According to my calcs, at current rates of 0.6900, MGX FX hedging fark up is out of the money to the tune of - 

$345m @ 0.8801 = AUD392m

less

$345m @ 0.6900 = AUD500m

gives

OTM by AUD108m

Who are their freaking advisors???

To think that some of the larger miners have a "No Hedge policy"  - what were they thinking in not following their competitors. It is actually taking on risk by doing hedging programmes that is different from your competitor. There will be blood on the carpet at AGM time, I say.


----------



## kray192

hedging losses can be written off as capital loss, the $100m wont be reflected in profit terms only revenue. the effect on the profit will be less than to tax deductions possible from this terrible fiasco.

BUt you never know the AUD can go any direction in this period of uncertainty.


----------



## Agent 86

I am not a tax guru, but however you look at it, what investors want now is cash. So whether it is a capital loss or on revenue account it still burns shareholder cash if the AUD108m is realised.

I dont think that the AUD will be heading seriously north any time soon. 0.70's maybe in the short term, 0.80's that is another commodity cycle away.....


----------



## jman2007

peteai said:


> Do you mean hedging the hedging ("_corporate safety strategy they have employed to protect them against this type of volatility_")




Haha, yeah I guess something along those lines,

I see they they had the 'Collar Instrument' option in place for 2007, to "Hedge sales receipts against cash flow volatility arising from fluctuating USD/AUD exchange rates by limiting explosure to exchange rates within a certain range of acceptable rates." (pg 79 of AR). 

To my untrained financial eye, this looks to be some kind of 'hedging protection', for want of a better word, although the exact definition of all the terms is beyond me.

It doesn't appear that this instrument was in place for 2008 however. 

What I'm trying to establish is whether this potential fiasco will have an impact on the Bottom Line, assuming the exchange rate remains more or less constant over the next 8 months or so. Or can this be fudged into another category such as non-current liabilities, or wtitten of as a tax loss as someone has mentioned? Not really my area, any comments from users such as YT etc welcome... maybe more of a tax issue? 

Cheers
jman


----------



## sean2008

What happening to this share? Keeps on dropping, almost no bounce.
No divy as well. Is this company facing a big issue?


----------



## Sharks37

Looks like fear of recesssion and its effect on China's demand for IO is driving this. I bought some at $0.75 and some more at $0.46, thinking it must bounce at some point...and it hasn't. It looks like earnings will take a hit this year due to slower sales into China and also their forex hedging problem, however earnings forecasts for 2010 look pretty good. It may yet go lower, as the market is still gripped by uncertainty and fear, but IO will recover, and so will prices. I'd rather be in something like MGX right now with established production, rather than something like AGO which has yet to reach production stage because the economic climate and outlook might barr newer players like AGO from starting up, thereby giving established outfits a buffer period when things get better.


----------



## bluboy

Hi all,

I've been eyeing off MGX for a while now, and actually had a large order in @ $0.400 last night (Just missing out with the eventual $0.405 close).

Anyway, this morning I noticed they have been placed into trading halt for "Offtake arrangements".  What is this?  Have I missed out on the break I'd been waiting for... Or is this bad news and I've saved myself some money?

Cheers

--
BluBoy


----------



## Sean K

bluboy said:


> Anyway, this morning I noticed they have been placed into trading halt for "Offtake arrangements".  What is this?  Have I missed out on the break I'd been waiting for... Or is this bad news and I've saved myself some money?



Means a guaranteed sale of the product, but price will be the question. 

In the past, this was good news.


----------



## adobee

I think this will be a positive announcement but in the current market anything can be negative...  I am be kicked in the guts since picking this up around 70c.. please give us something ! If it goes down much further I may be better off taking over the company !


----------



## Agent 86

There was a rumour that the quality of MGX's product was not in spec with their offtake agreement.

Hence their customers were not honouring the Letters of Credit they entered into with MGX. 

Does anyone have an angle on this one?


----------



## YELNATS

Agent 86 said:


> There was a rumour that the quality of MGX's product was not in spec with their offtake agreement.
> 
> Hence their customers were not honouring the Letters of Credit they entered into with MGX.
> 
> Does anyone have an angle on this one?




Where did you hear or see this? If it's true it could be a crucial development and radically effect its' share price.


----------



## peteai

I would suggest that their buyers were trying to get out of their contracts & have found this to be their best tactic - The Chinese find these 'sort' of tactics quite useful at times.


----------



## sean2008

I also noticed the news "Ceasing to be a substantial holder from PPT". If I am not wrong, PPT was holding 19% of MGX's share. This guy kept on selling MGX. This might be the reason why MGX never had a chance to bounce.


----------



## kray192

The product cannot be guarranteed to be to the letter everything, thats why they have penalty rates and bonus rates, i dont think the quality of the product is in question here.


----------



## YELNATS

sean2008 said:


> I also noticed the news "Ceasing to be a substantial holder from PPT". If I am not wrong, PPT was holding 19% of MGX's share. This guy kept on selling MGX. This might be the reason why MGX never had a chance to bounce.




It's rarely a good thing if a well-known insto is selling down/selling out of a stock. On the other hand if they have ended their selling now, it could relieve some of the downward pressure on price.


----------



## nunthewiser

anyone consider the fact that maybe PPT need to hustle up a bit of cash seeing as ppl withdrawing there cash because of govvy deposit guarntee ?


----------



## nunthewiser

Perpetual Ltd has suspended  redemptions for its monthly income and mortgage funds after a federal government guarantee on bank deposits prompted a exodus of funds across the wealth management industry. 

Perpetual said effective today it will only allow quarterly redemptions to investors, based on the level of funds available as securities mature in the portfolios. 

"Regrettably, the recent introduction of the guarantee on bank deposits and subsequent actions by other parties has incited uncertainty in the market and created a sudden spike in redemptions in the past few days," Perpetual group executive of income and multi-sector funds Richard Brandweiner said. 

"In this context, we must act prudently to protect the interests of all investors in the funds." 

Mr Brandweiner said Perpetual's action was the most fair and equitable approach given many investors were retirees with modest balances. 

The funds affected by the change have approximately $2 billion under management. 

They include the Wholesale Monthly Income Fund, Monthly Income Fund, WealthFocus Super and Pension Funds Mortgage Option, WealthFocus Investments Mortgage Fund, Perpetual's Term Fund and Private Investor Mortgage Fund. 

Mr Brandweiner said the issue was evolving issue and Perpetual would continue to monitor the situation.


----------



## lsj84

chinese will get so many bargains if other keep on selling. mgx mmx atlas, etc u name it. they got a sovereign wealth fund that is big enough to buy multiple of BHPs.


----------



## chansw

sean2008 said:


> I also noticed the news "Ceasing to be a substantial holder from PPT". If I am not wrong, PPT was holding 19% of MGX's share. This guy kept on selling MGX. This might be the reason why MGX never had a chance to bounce.




The change in substantial holding from PPT lodged to ASX on 25 Sep 2008 indicated PPT had 6.1% only (not 19%).


----------



## Agent 86

YELNATS said:


> Where did you hear or see this? If it's true it could be a crucial development and radically effect its' share price.




I read this on page 24 AFR 21/10/08 - right hand column. It specifically names MGX as being in trouble with shipments.


----------



## gav

I posted this in the FMG thread, but thought it would be relevant here too.

% fall of Iron Ore stocks...

BCI - Down 85%
AGO - Down 84%
CFE - Down 56%
*MGX - Down 89%*
FMG - Down 78%


----------



## Mofra

Suspension from official quotation pending discussion re: offtake agreements.

Guess we'll be waiting longer for some clarity.


----------



## sean2008

Mofra said:


> Suspension from official quotation pending discussion re: offtake agreements.
> 
> Guess we'll be waiting longer for some clarity.




I think this is good. Today, the market does not look good. If it is a good news today, I doubt it can bounce to a good level.


----------



## treefrog

Mofra said:


> Suspension from official quotation pending discussion re: offtake agreements.
> 
> Guess we'll be waiting longer for some clarity.




nun
what is the local buzz up there - you out and about getting the inside stuff?
if you are in negotiations to pick up a controlling interest at these levels, I'll understand any delay in replying.
cheerz
da frog


----------



## nunthewiser

treefrog said:


> nun
> what is the local buzz up there - you out and about getting the inside stuff?
> if you are in negotiations to pick up a controlling interest at these levels, I'll understand any delay in replying.
> cheerz
> da frog




hahahahahahahah


the best move they could do in my view actually .........still digging it up , still loading a ship actually at berth 5 .........i have stated my average hold in another thread .

nothin wrong with there operations  still working , still  making a quid .......

anyhoo


----------



## chops_a_must

treefrog said:


> nun
> what is the local buzz up there - you out and about getting the inside stuff?
> if you are in negotiations to pick up a controlling interest at these levels, I'll understand any delay in replying.
> cheerz
> da frog



I hear from someone doing audits up there that there were a few big $$ contracts canned last week.

Central Earthmoving had a $60 million contract torn up last week, which is one I know of specifically.

Cheers.


----------



## nunthewiser

chops_a_must said:


> I hear from someone doing audits up there that there were a few big $$ contracts canned last week.
> 
> Central Earthmoving had a $60 million contract torn up last week, which is one I know of specifically.
> 
> Cheers.




as far as i know central earth not involved in mgx operation . central earth involved at golden grove / oxiana and other local midwest infastructure in cluding main roads .. i could be wrong things may have changed but last time i heard it was Giacci / patience lookin after MGX ....... anyways what would i know in tassie and hopeless with speakin on the phone


----------



## chops_a_must

nunthewiser said:


> as far as i know central earth not involved in mgx operation . central earth involved at golden grove / oxiana and other local midwest infastructure in cluding main roads .. i could be wrong things may have changed but last time i heard it was Giacci / patience lookin after MGX ....... anyways what would i know in tassie and hopeless with speakin on the phone




Yus, central do do Golden Grove, and they are being wound down there too.

But could swear they were doing MGX as well. Could well be wrong on that though.

Anyway, the $60 million contract was definitely a MGX bust though, and they definitely had been destroying contracts through last week.


----------



## nunthewiser

chops_a_must said:


> Anyway, the $60 million contract was definitely a MGX bust though, and they definitely had been destroying contracts through last week.




you might want to check your source and get that reconfirmed to make sure they are not confused with MIS/MMX and there patience haulage contracts ,

i could be wrong , often am but do tend to hear a lil bit around them parts .


----------



## nunthewiser

more heresay as seems to be the go on these threads but a read of A.F.R dated 15/10 .page 25 might be worth a squiz too


----------



## chops_a_must

nunthewiser said:


> more heresay as seems to be the go on these threads but a read of A.F.R dated 15/10 .page 25 might be worth a squiz too




You do realise not all of us have the AFR right in front of us dont you? 

.....................................................................


----------



## nunthewiser

chops_a_must said:


> You do realise not all of us have the AFR right in front of us dont you?
> 
> .....................................................................




 sorry m8 nor do i , a friend just gave me a piece of it ....... 

The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 25 
 On 15 October 2008, Mount Gibson Iron issued a notice of general meeting, withthe aim of altering its 
constitution. Shareholders will be called upon toendorse a clause specifying that a majority of investors must 
approve a"proportional" takeover offer. That follows Merrill Lynch'ssuggestion the mining corporation could be 
a takeover target once the bankingcrisis clears



prolly just another load of twaddle but thought id put it here anyways


----------



## sean2008

Mt. Gibson Iron Said to Be in Talks to Sell New Stock (Update1) 

By Helen Yuan, Sarah Thompson and Jesse Riseborough

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Mt. Gibson Iron Ltd., an Australian iron ore producer, is seeking to sell shares to investors in China, Australia and the U.K. as the credit crunch slows sales and squeezes financing, two people familiar with the deal said. 

Mt. Gibson wants to sell stock at 60 Australian cents each, a 48 percent premium to its last traded price, the people with direct knowledge of the plans said, declining to be identified before the talks are completed. Perth-based Managing Director Luke Tonkin didn't return calls....

full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aMNj.dG1Vg.Q&refer=australia


----------



## Agent 86

That is a shocking thing to hear about selling shares at 60cents.

I seem to recall that because there was big delays in settling the 2009 IO prices, that when the price was finally agreed MGX has to invoice its customers a significant amount on June 30 2008.

If you look at their year end trade debtors it has risen from 3,954,000 in 2007 to 78,493,000 in 2008 (a $75m increase).

I made some comment a few weeks ago that there was problems with Letters of Credit and their customers - another AFR rumour.

I fear now that their customers bankers would not extend them further credit lines to the tune of $75m or thereabouts which is now forcing MGX's hand here.

Any thoughts from people??


----------



## Sharks37

Agent 86 said:


> That is a shocking thing to hear about selling shares at 60cents.
> 
> I seem to recall that because there was big delays in settling the 2009 IO prices, that when the price was finally agreed MGX has to invoice its customers a significant amount on June 30 2008.
> 
> If you look at their year end trade debtors it has risen from 3,954,000 in 2007 to 78,493,000 in 2008 (a $75m increase).
> 
> I made some comment a few weeks ago that there was problems with Letters of Credit and their customers - another AFR rumour.
> 
> I fear now that their customers bankers would not extend them further credit lines to the tune of $75m or thereabouts which is now forcing MGX's hand here.
> 
> Any thoughts from people??




Sounds plausible, although with credit conditions easing already this situation could alleviate itself soon (hopefully). Quarterly report just issued. No statement of cash flows (unfrtunately) which would have given us a better picture of what the situation really is. However interestingly they claim to be re-negotiating shipping schedules with existing customers as well as potential off-take agreements with ne customers. Let's hope they succeed and they are not in fact attempting to issue further capital as rumoured.


----------



## sean2008

A$0.60 per share to a Chinese company, along with offtake agreement, what you guys think? Good news or bad news?


----------



## nunthewiser

is no longer a holder of mgx , long termers , short termers the whole 
caboodle , will trade them in the future but that ann has just destroyed all my confidence and respect 
in there bizzness playing skills

they have been outplayed by there major holders and are on a one way street to being in checkmate 

go mgx for holders

those that have known me over the years know this wasnt no easy task for me to do .

but hey gotta protect whats mine and lose confidence lose everything 

poor form MGX jam sand upya clackers 

P.s i should point out that i have made a profit on this BUT still not happy regarding my liquidation of a long term love affair


----------



## nunthewiser

PPs . i must point out my exit has nothing to do with TA reasons or thinking there price wont rise , i dare say it may .. my sellout is for personal reasons and my OWN fundamental view of them as of todays ann .

over the years they have looked after me genourously but my time withem has finished as an investor


----------



## jonnycage

ive riden the waves of these guys also,  got out before the trading
halt, back in this morning though at 36 cents

jonny


----------



## Mofra

Just some back of envelope scribbles in terms of the impact of today's announcement, trying to unwind the complexity somewhat. 
If there are any glaring errors, anyone please post & advise.

Shares on issue rise 1 in 5, assuming 813m share son issue + ~ 162.6m + 
110m = 1,085.6m shares, + exercised options since July.

Approx production costs $244.6m last FY, 1 Jan to 1 July offtake agreement (Medium Term) is for 100% of production, using last year's figures for the 10%margin that's ~$25m operating profit for H1 09.
Add short term income to 31/12 of $13m (325k tonnes x $40) it seems like a massive hit to the income, before the currency hedging losses are taken into account.

For next FY, using the shipping totals 1.272m wmt shipped last FY, shaving 10% off the average price for 80% sale certainty may help but it is certainly a fair cut from previous broker estimates of EPS, before dilution of capital is taken into account.

Not sure rolling the hedging forward (mentioned as a possible strategy) will help in an environment where the RBA are cutting rates and the spot price for iron ore has taken a tumble (using it as an indicator of likely agreements for next year).

Will be interesting to read any proper analysis of the imapct of today's statement. God bless zero dollar averaging.


----------



## sean2008

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/mt-gibsons-iron-ore-shock-20081103-5gkg.html

Mount Gibson Iron will be forced to sell its iron ore at just $US40 a tonne - a 60% discount to the benchmark price - until the end of the year to allow it to move the product after several customers cancelled deliveries.

In a stunning about-face, Mt Gibson will sell half of its discounted ore to Shougang Concord - a company associated with Shougang Holdings.


----------



## sean2008

who is selling MGX? 100k, 500k..., PPT already sold out their share, who is the next big shareholder selling?


----------



## Sharks37

I'd have to agree with nunthewiser MGX management do not appear to have been too savvy. I've only bought in in recent weeks and bought some more today, and I have the following take on what's happened:


MGX have been hit by customers cancelling their orders in the current climate, and that's left the company stranded with a cash flow problem to see them through next year.
Shougang (a chinese steel producer) both directly and indirectly through APAC is taking advantage and offering to up its stake in the company at a guranateed price by underwriting the rights issue.
In return, Shougang and APAC between them will basically see the company through till next June by guaranteeing to buy the company's product at a firesale price to provide enough cash flow to keep operating through this period, and the rights issue will pump in the remainder of the cash needed.
Atfer next June they guarantee (through the long term offtake agreement) to buy all the company's future production at the hammersley benchmark rate - 10% owner's discount.
MGX have shown what they expect to produce beyond 2009, which will be subject to the Hammersley benchmark pricing minus 10% so even at that it looks pretty good (assuming prices recover which everyone says they will).
The deal puts a floor on MGX's value IMO, and if it is a rip-off then we can expect someone else to have a crack so we may do even better.
The deal is subject to shareholder agreement so we don't have to take it - but if another offer doesn't come out of the woodwork I think we should.

All in all not I think its a good deal out of a bad situation. I note from the statement that the forex hedging was a caveat tied to financing arrangements so maybe management's hands were tied on this.

Finally, it would appear Shougang reckon the company is a steal at $0.60/share given that (a) as a buyer of the product they secure 6 months worth of IO dirt cheap and then a long term discount to market and (b) the as a shareholder they are buying in at a bargain price (and as my new favourite saying goes - winner winner chicken dinner). 

But that means for existing shareholders there is still long term price upside. I might not be like nunthewiser and have only purchased recently, but I'm betting that the boys at Shougang are pretty switched on and they will ensure the compnay will be better run in future.


----------



## nunthewiser

Sharks37 said:


> I'd have to agree with nunthewiser MGX management do not appear to have been too savvy.
> I might not be like nunthewiser and have only purchased recently, but I'm betting that the boys at Shougang are pretty switched on and they will ensure the compnay will be better run in future.




sorry but never said they wasnt savvy i said i have lost confidence
also i have been a holder of MGX for a number of years actually , removed all capital PLUS an extra 300% ish on top , my remaining hold i sold today comprised of a free holding plus those bought mid 50,s and mid 40,s 

please if ya gunna use my name and comments gettem right at least


----------



## Sharks37

nunthewiser said:


> sorry but never said they wasnt savvy i said i have lost confidence
> also i have been a holder of MGX for a number of years actually , removed all capital PLUS an extra 300% ish on top , my remaining hold i sold today comprised of a free holding plus those bought mid 50,s and mid 40,s
> 
> please if ya gunna use my name and comments gettem right at least




OK, apologies, I stand corrected. I was calling them un-savvy - gotta work on my grammar - it was not my intention to claim you said that.


----------



## nunthewiser

Sharks37 said:


> OK, apologies, I stand corrected. I was calling them un-savvy - gotta work on my grammar - it was not my intention to claim you said that.




yeah no worries , look my exit has nothing to do with future share price and i DEFINATELY will be trading them in the near future , my exit is purely from an investment view as i feel that they are no longer the company that has been growing over the years and are now merely a takeover target for a song by a better bunch of chess players . DEFINATELY cash to be made playing this stock and i will most likely be enjoying some of the volatilty it will produce .
also i am not saying this is the bottom for it as we still got a disgruntled russian major holder out there with a lot of stock and no one to sell it too except the open market thanks to previous asic desicion .


----------



## agro

nunthewiser said:


> sorry but never said they wasnt savvy i said i have lost confidence
> also i have been a holder of MGX for a number of years actually , removed all capital PLUS an extra 300% ish on top , my remaining hold i sold today comprised of a free holding plus those bought mid 50,s and mid 40,s
> 
> please if ya gunna use my name and comments gettem right at least




am i receiving mixed messages here?

didn't you mention you were accumulating in the 40s now today you told us you have sold??


----------



## nunthewiser

agro said:


> am i receiving mixed messages here?
> 
> didn't you mention you were accumulating in the 40s now today you told us you have sold??




i think you should scroll back instead of confusing yourself over one post, i have explaied my actions , i have no need to justify them to anyone but i have to point out my standing after todays announcement , if you read that then read ALL my posts of today it may become a little clearer for you 

thankyou


----------



## Mofra

agro said:


> am i receiving mixed messages here?
> 
> didn't you mention you were accumulating in the 40s now today you told us you have sold??



Nunno got me in years ago at 16c, bless him
I'm still holding, but have taken more than my initial investment out in $$$ terms

Will wait until the dust settles before getting more though. Have to keep the powder dry as a few bargains are appearing to form support levels


----------



## Sharks37

nunthewiser said:


> yeah no worries , look my exit has nothing to do with future share price and i DEFINATELY will be trading them in the near future , my exit is purely from an investment view as i feel that they are no longer the company that has been growing over the years and are now merely a takeover target for a song by a better bunch of chess players . DEFINATELY cash to be made playing this stock and i will most likely be enjoying some of the volatilty it will produce .
> also i am not saying this is the bottom for it as we still got a disgruntled russian major holder out there with a lot of stock and no one to sell it too except the open market thanks to previous asic desicion .




Understood. I like to invest in companies that I respect for the way they run their business. I'm a big fan of FMG 'cos I really like the way they do things and they've got lots of potential. I chose MGX as a 2nd IO play because this commodity has been very oversold in recent months and will come back strongly in 2009, and on paper a few weeks ago they looked better than MMX and AGO (being less developed and therefore at greater risk than MGX). Anyway, I'm in now and I will be keen to see how it plays out and take part along the way. Good luck in other ventures.


----------



## nulla nulla

Seems like the Chinese government has manipulated the chinese iron industry, post Bejing Olympics, to cause hardship in an Australian producer. Thus creating an opportunity for the chinese government to secure supply on their terms, to the future detriment of the Australian industry and the Australian public. I hope Kevin Rudd & Wayne Swan take a close look at the leadup to this situation and the implications for the Australian Iron Ore industry for the future, while considering whether to allow this deal to proceed.


----------



## nunthewiser

nulla nulla said:


> Seems like the Chinese government has manipulated the chinese iron industry, post Bejing Olympics, to cause hardship in an Australian producer. Thus creating an opportunity for the chinese government to secure supply on their terms, to the future detriment of the Australian industry and the Australian public. I hope Kevin Rudd & Wayne Swan take a close look at the leadup to this situation and the implications for the Australian Iron Ore industry for the future, while considering whether to allow this deal to proceed.




not wrong m8 . damned if they do , damned if they dont .IF the deal allowed they allowing a foreign majority stake that they previously knocked back in regards to apac trying to buy mr ruskies stake and leading to a chess played move by the chinese to first stick mgx in the poo then bailem out for chips leading to a dirt cheap takeover of an ozzie asset. If they dissalow the deal MGX stuck trying to find a new buyer, has no cash bailout and will maybe have to try and raise the funds from australia , and in current markets i think will be hard to do . ......... intresting times


----------



## nulla nulla

Surprised they didn't go to institutional investors for capital raising to buy time to ride ot the chinese brinkmanship. Additional share issue would have been the same without locking production into discounted prices for the apparantly extended period it has. Also would not have given up board seats and future board disharmony. Can't see chinese government directors voting in any other fashion other than as directed by chinese government and certainly not necessarily in the interest of smaller shareholders (read Australian shareholders).


----------



## Sharks37

Difference this time around presumably is that management will work for not against the chinese in selling this option to shareholders and regulators to avoid a worse fate...


----------



## nunthewiser

Sharks37 said:


> Difference this time around presumably is that management will work for not against the chinese in selling this option to shareholders and regulators to avoid a worse fate...




yep , fair call , currently dont really have much choice in the matter but to agree to it and promote it as the best outcome for shareholders in current climates , and yeah it WAS mgx that called in the regulators to block the sale last time , geez poor ole mr ruskie going to be spewing aint he  big difference in what he could have got back then to todays prices . wouldnt surprise me if he has his own ace up his sleeve for a rainy day..

i do think this will be exciting and vey intresting times for MGX and its holders in the months to come


----------



## nulla nulla

Wonder if Slater & Gordon are preparing a class action on behalf of shareholders that have suffered a loss as a result?


----------



## nunthewiser

nulla nulla said:


> Wonder if Slater & Gordon are preparing a class action on behalf of shareholders that have suffered a loss as a result?




LOL wouldnt that open up a canful of worms ...... would have every man and his dog queing up for a piece of it ..couldnt see it ever happening due to the changing needs and intrests of shareholders as viewed by management at any period in the past but geez wouldnt that be a mud fight if they attempted something of sorts


----------



## muddy waters

Are you guys saying there is no other option but to accept the current proposal?

Surely, MGX board is  panicking.  

By negotiating these offers they are limiting the short/long term growth in sp - and will ultimately hand over control to the Chinese; 

This stock [a once share market darling - and rightly so!] 
has quickly become the biggest lemon in our market. [down  approx 90%]

This is another case where management has been issued unlimited monopoly money [ options ] and don't have real money invested in the coy 

- and won't  really lose a significant proportion of their life savings from this deal.  

Are there any other options ?

Is the board moving too quickly?


----------



## Sharks37

Personally MW I don't believe this is the only option. Management have played a lacklustre game of chess with the chinese grandmasters and they've been outplayed. 

But what it does do is it puts a floor in where the rug has been pulled out from under management's feet by the chinese. The offer provides some certainty in terms of the company's survival although effectively the farm has been sold off. However there is still value there for the average shareholder, albeit the upside potential is not now what it once was.

At the end of the day, it still requires approval from shareholders and regulators so it may still not go through. It might also bring out from thw woodpile other interested parties...


----------



## nunthewiser

GO MGX FOR HOLDERS AND TRADERS ALIKE nice volumes , intresting times indeed they say....... anyone got any tech views on this ?


----------



## sean2008

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=3&ContentID=106340

White knight tip emerges in battle for Mt Gibson control

5th November 2008, 6:00 WST 


Mount Gibson Iron could find itself targeted by a white knight suitor to stymie plans by two Chinese steel groups to all but seize control of the struggling miner, analysts said yesterday. 

A day after Mt Gibson unveiled plans to see China’s Shougang Concord and APAC Resources lift their collective stake in the Mid-West miner as high as 40.5 per cent and secure discounted ore for the life of the mine, Macquarie Research Equities analysts Len Eldridge and Jim Copland suggested the battle for the miner might not be over.


----------



## speculator101

Boy, what a couple of months...
There I was thinking that after investing for 3 years, building up my stake, slowly averaging up, due to buying in so low initially.
That happy days were ahead.

So, reality has set in. MGX board to say the least has led the company down a very rocky road. 
My worry is that in making the latest 'transaction' they have not looked at all possibilities.
They have basically sold 2/5 of the company.. at a price of 60cents.
Now, from a T/O view, that’s 50% above the s/p when it was announced.
Which, some may look at as 'ok' value. Well. As a long term holder... Im a little disappointed to say the least.
I believe that the only outcome that could have been worse, was the company saying to the market... we are broke.
They have basically given away the company at a bargain price, and, ha... even giving away Iron Ore for 6 months. 

So, from a firm supporter of the management, which in the past successfully T/O aztec, got two mines running, and raised the company’s value 20fold.. to this. 

As for this White Knight possibility, yes, there are company's that have been interested in MGX for about 18 months. However, it would be extremely hard to gain control of the company with the current shareholder configuration...
I am very interested to hear what other holders/investors think of MGXs future path?

IMHO.


----------



## furiouswilly

sharply dropped again!! it seems never end. i hope they wont belly up! All the news is bad. anyone have any thought?


----------



## jeffTH

Is MGX now ahead of the pack?

The somewhat drastic action taken by the Board has come as a huge shock to longer term investors (me included).  However reading the Explanatory Memorandum dated 25 November gives me some relief to know that debt will no longer be the main problem and that funds will be available for Extension Hill and further work at Koolan Island.  Furthermore, long term contracts for life of mine at all mines should be possible albeit at a 10% discount to Hammersley prices for APAC and Shougang.

Probably little chance of a takeover premium in the stock once this transaction takes place but I feel some relief in knowing that the stock will be there in the next few years and when the market picks up, I expect to recoup my full investment.  I wish I had the same sense of security with my other small and midcap resource stocks.

Anyone share my view?


----------



## furiouswilly

*Help with MGX new shares Right*

Under the Rights Issue, Eligible Shareholders will have the opportunity to subscribe for 1 New Share
for every 5 Existing Shares held on the Record Date at an Issue Price of A$0.60 per New Share.

Old shares i have current is around $0.37, New shares is $0.6, how this thing work out? 5 shares getting 1 new shares, that mean my shares worth about $0.01, so why would i do this for? sorry iam a beginner, can someone tell me what should i do? if this $0.6 is a pro rate, they said is discount, so new shares will be high than $0.6?


----------



## tommymac

The share hasn't traded at $0.60 since October (I think) so I too find it hard to work out why they did this.

The prospectus says the market is undervaluing the company and hence a rights issue of $0.60 is more appropriate. That is rubbish. The market values a company - end of story.

The offer is also underwritten which means the underwriter (APAC & Shougang Concord) will ensure the offer is a success by buying any shares not taken up. This in itself is not bad, but in combination with the price of $0.60, something doesn't sit right with me.

APAC is a majority shareholder while Shougang was earlier this year. Could this be a quick way to increase their shareholdings without buying on market. Or is this just another conspiracy theory by tommymac.

There was another company (SUN???) that offer a share purchase plan where the offer price was higher than the share price. It was forced to cancel the plan.

Personally, I wouldn't go accept the offer, because if you wanted to buy more you would do so on market.  The brokerage costs would be less than paying an extra $0.25 per share.


----------



## furiouswilly

will this effect the mgx shares price n the new shares price?


----------



## prawn_86

tommymac said:


> APAC is a majority shareholder while Shougang was earlier this year. Could this be a quick way to increase their shareholdings without buying on market. Or is this just another conspiracy theory by tommymac.




I would actually also think along those lines tommymac.

APAC et al probably know they can get more than 60c per share out of MGX if they had control, so by doing this it means they will get an increased stake as no-one is going to participate if they can buy them cheaper on market.

Long term view taken by APAC imho


----------



## tommymac

furiouswilly said:


> will this effect the mgx shares price n the new shares price?




Can't tell for sure, but I reckon there won't be much change based on this. 

The market is reacting to small news and its really difficult to know if it is reacting positively to something one day, or negatively to something the next, Particularly with commodities. 

What are your thoughts on this MGX?


----------



## drsmith

*Re: Help with MGX new shares Right*



furiouswilly said:


> Under the Rights Issue, Eligible Shareholders will have the opportunity to subscribe for 1 New Share
> for every 5 Existing Shares held on the Record Date at an Issue Price of A$0.60 per New Share.
> 
> Old shares i have current is around $0.37, New shares is $0.6, how this thing work out? 5 shares getting 1 new shares, that mean my shares worth about $0.01, so why would i do this for? sorry iam a beginner, can someone tell me what should i do? if this $0.6 is a pro rate, they said is discount, so new shares will be high than $0.6?



To best illustrate what MGX is offering you, consider the following example.

Lets assume you have 10000 eligible shares in MGX. MGX would then be offering you the opportunity to purchase another 2000 shares (one share for every five) at $0.60. Total cost for the shares would be $1200. If however MGX are trading at $0.37, you can by an equivelent parcel of 2000 shares for $740 + brokerage.

With the above example it is obvious which is the better option for increasing your shareholding.

As a general rule if you wish to purchase shares offered in a rights issue first check the market price for the shares. If the market price + brokerage is less than the cost of taking up the rights issue, purchase the shares in the market instead.



tommymac said:


> There was another company (SUN???) that offer a share purchase plan where the offer price was higher than the share price. It was forced to cancel the plan.



Stockland's (SGP) recent share purchase plan price was well above the share price by the time the offer closed.

For holders that took up Stockland's offer, the company returned the cash.


----------



## kam75

The volume is coming back but after being busted up so bad, you'd have to be an optimist to think it's hit bottom.  A break of 0.40 and 0.50 could lead to a quick trade.  The question is where do you currently place your stoploss.


----------



## madmax_76

Gday Guys/Gals,

Am completely new to stock trading and since the entire market is pretty much down I decided to get a feeler in the share market.

Having lived in Geraldton for quite a few years I decided to buy some shares in MGX as there were nice and cheap at the time (55cents).

A while later they dropped to 30 cents and so I bought another lot. Havent been buying much really as this is my first time. This will be an interesting learning curve for me and i cant wait to see what the future holds for MGX.

In regards to the rights issue IMHO I cant really see any point in buying shares @ 60 cents when I bought 2 lots at 55 cents & 30 cents respectively.

IMHO I think MGX did hot rock bottom when they were selling at 19 cents, but thats my 5 cents, so far its been interesting...


----------



## Sean K

Wonder who's buying?

Great one week return.

I've been looking elsewhere.

  

Lots of bang heads recently..


----------



## nunthewiser

madmax_76 said:


> Gday Guys/Gals,
> 
> Am completely new to stock trading and since the entire market is pretty much down I decided to get a feeler in the share market.
> 
> Having lived in Geraldton for quite a few years I decided to buy some shares in MGX as there were nice and cheap at the time (55cents).
> 
> ...





ARGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH.. GERO aint big enough for the both of us!!!

lol nice to have a fellow midwest poster here

i too have followed MGX for many years and they have looked after me very well over the years also ...... 

currently only trade them as the goal posts have been moved for them since the manipulation of there business but do wish all investors luck and prosperity with it

i did previously hold for a number of years


----------



## roofa

Yes indeed, I averaged down at around that price and unfortunately was on a plane the day they hit 19 cents as I would have added more.
Still can not complain as up around 40% at current price, looking to hold medium term.


----------



## roofa

Nice volumes the last 3 trading days and SP up over 50%, what's this based on? Surely not based on the last announcement alone.


----------



## MACCA350

roofa said:


> Nice volumes the last 3 trading days and SP up over 50%, what's this based on? Surely not based on the last announcement alone.



May have something to do with the settled dispute with one if it's customers, which means they will continue to supply them for their long term contract...........this coincided with the 21% increase on Friday.

I'm considering taking a 71% profit, but they may continue to gain ground, so I may keep holding

cheers


----------



## champ2003

MACCA350 said:


> May have something to do with the settled dispute with one if it's customers, which means they will continue to supply them for their long term contract...........this coincided with the 21% increase on Friday.
> 
> I'm considering taking a 71% profit, but they may continue to gain ground, so I may keep holding
> 
> cheers




Yep MGX have now come into alot of cash due to one of their customers that they had lost coming back to them. Not only did this major customer come back to them but they are coming back to them under the same terms and conditions that they had previously negotiated which means that MGX are getting paid top dollar for this offtake agreement under the current negotiated high IO prices. 

It's substantial hence the extremely large volume.


----------



## legs

What do you say when this happens??

It hasn't "broken out" has it?


MACD is also showing a "buy" isn't it?


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Rising volume and a 50% drop in contract price may see reversal to 60c, but fundamentally looks stronger.


----------



## aungsan

Getting close to the $ mark  Now that native time is all but done and China looking to increase volumes - who knows? Maybe back to the $3 + situation??


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

A chart of mgx should show some optimism for the believers.

From November to April it spent much of the time after an initial upward move in a trading range but respected a gradually rising trendline.

Then it took off and has had higher highs and lows since.
A new trendline has been respected. 

An upward move beyond $1 is not an unreasonable expectation.
The crux will come next week. If it continues to respect the trendline, then there is hope , if it doesn't it may find support at the older trendline.

gg


----------



## aungsan

I'm with you there on the new trend. The only worrying factor, I believe, is the current China/spy thing going on with Rio.


----------



## legs

Great share price move today.. havent been able to get to the bottom of it really. Has anyone got the word on this move??


----------



## jman2007

A pretty good Quarterly report from MGX is what led to the spike.

-Unaudited 12 month profit for the period ending 30th June 2009 was $42.6M after tax.

-25% increase in ore sales for the Quarter.

-Cash on hand of $222M.

-Forex hedgebook restructure.

-And a number of heritage issues sorted out for the western end of Koolan Island.

Might have to get another ASF member to look into and explain the significance of the forex hedgbook restructure, as its understanding and significance is a bit beyond me, but I gather it was a good outcome.


----------



## nunthewiser

jman2007 said:


> -Forex hedgebook restructure.
> 
> -And a number of heritage issues sorted out for the western end of Koolan Island.
> 
> Might have to get another ASF member to look into and explain the significance of the forex hedgbook restructure, as its understanding and significance is a bit beyond me, but I gather it was a good outcome.




they got absolutely hammered for there currency hedge previously re  bottom line, it has been fixed .........personally think the buggars should stick to digging holes and hire one of these boys here to look after the rest


----------



## Mofra

Howdy nun - long time no hear 

Sold out today due to double top fears - better use of cash ATM. Pulled reasonably back hard off the $1.185 - $1.19 sale zone. That's one decent resistance band to break, and coming off 10 straight positive trading days. 

Profit taking due on the first red XMJ day methinks.


----------



## nunthewiser

Mofra said:


> Howdy nun - long time no hear
> 
> Sold out today due to double top fears - better use of cash ATM. Pulled reasonably back hard off the $1.185 - $1.19 sale zone. That's one decent resistance band to break, and coming off 10 straight positive trading days.
> 
> Profit taking due on the first red XMJ day methinks.




mofra  nice to see you . 

yep been trading MGX myself a fair bit of late ... great little trading stock these days ...given up the love affair as pointed out before but do still hold a soft spot for them. recently sold trade parcels also.

word  on the street which as you know cannot be verified and is merely here say from a ramper , is that sinosteel and ansteel are pushing there investment weight a fair bit in the midwest currently and because of sinosteels 100% purchase of MIS already and there disappointment with oakagee decisions they are pushing for further ease of movement/investment in the area .this includes other prospective 100% purchases of local ore.

they want involvement with oakagee as do many other chinese investors .BUT they want it there way also and are currently pressuring for design/construction/supply , the whole shebang .

on a side note watch AVA M8 ... recent deferment of decision for power lines etc is apparently going to cabinet on august 3rd .it is a highly pressurised situation and a lot midwest growth as in mines , infastructure, development hinges on it . LOTS of pressure to have this situation reversed and get a bleedin move on giving these investors what they want/need.

i  hold AVA and a known ramper

either way very intresting times in the midwest 

good to hear from you


----------



## jman2007

nunthewiser said:


> they got absolutely hammered for there currency hedge previously re  bottom line, it has been fixed .........personally think the buggars should stick to digging holes and hire one of these boys here to look after the rest




Thanks nunthewiser,

Yes although they got their hedging badly wrong last year, 20c seems like a distant bad dream now,  Just wish I'd had the foresight and kahoona's to load up on a few more! I don't think many people were expecting them to turn a profit for the recent Quarter, and it's been a great bounce of 90c so far. Although one thing holding MGX has taught me in the last 2 years is the importance of locking in your profits, not much use holding from 70c up to $4, and then back to 20c again .


----------



## laurie

hmm hindsight is a wonderful thing  

cheers laurie


----------



## LeeTV

*11 iron ore "winners*"
_Robin Bromby | August 12, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian _
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25918554-36418,00.html

TAKE the possible 21 iron ore stocks - outside the two Pilbara majors, of course - and Petra Capita of Sydney has found 11 they can recommend as value buys.

The broker tried to make it a level playing field - comparing apples with apples, if you like - by converting magnetite resources to their haematite equivalent; they did the sums on the amount of beneficiation required to produce a concentrate. Current benchmark iron ore prices were used to calculate enterprise value and that was all mixed up with expected EDITDA for the companies concerned. 

Then they were handicapped into three divisions by market cap - one above and two below the $500 million threshold. 

Four got the big tick in the heavyweight category: Murchison Metals with its Jack Hills project in the Mid West region of Western Australia; Gindalbie Metals which is also in that region with its Mungada and Karara projects; Fortescue Metals Group, the “new force” in the Pilbara; and Mount Gibson Iron which has Tallering Peak, Koolan Island and Extension Hill. 

Middleweight contenders that got the nod from Petra Capital were Brockman Resources with its Pilbara iron ore deposit, Sundance Resources toiling away in tropical Cameroon, Northern Iron   - a surprise winner - with the Sydvaranger deposit in Norway and - back to the Pilbara - United Minerals Corp. 

In the lightweight division, there’s Western Plains Resources drilling away in the South Australia at Peculiar Knob and Buzzard, Strike Resources over there in Peru, BC Iron which has kneeled at the foot of FMG in return for access to the latter’s Pilbara railway and as a consdequence will be in production next year, and Flinders Mines and its Hamersley project. In regard the last mentioned, FMS yesterday received a speeding ticket from the ASX, the company responding that the price and volume surge may have been due to a new broker’s report. 

It was interesting to see which companies got taken out in the cull. Notably there was Atlas Iron which is one of the great Pilbara junior success stories - but remember, this was all about finding stocks that are still value buys, not ones whose achievements and prospects have already been factored into their price. 


_The writer implies no investment recommendation and this report contains material that is speculative in nature. Investors should seek professional investment advice._


----------



## aungsan

Ok...
whats happening to the price??? It seems to be in a slide at the moment. Is there something we don't know about....?


----------



## rustyheela

aungsan said:


> Ok...
> whats happening to the price??? It seems to be in a slide at the moment. Is there something we don't know about....?




profit taking, probably slide on chinese x change. still in weekly uptrend unless $.80c fails to hold. great stock & story - im a large holder


----------



## aungsan

rustyheela said:


> profit taking, probably slide on chinese x change. still in weekly uptrend unless $.80c fails to hold. great stock & story - im a large holder






Ok then I'll hold off leaping from a tall building!  You are right though, great story. It would be nice to see them flying high again... pre financial meltdown.

cheers


----------



## legs

aungsan said:


> Ok then I'll hold off leaping from a tall building!  You are right though, great story. It would be nice to see them flying high again... pre financial meltdown.
> 
> cheers




In my experience great stories dont always end well... Oxiana/zinifex/oz minerals is a great example.


----------



## rustyheela

legs said:


> In my experience great stories dont always end well... Oxiana/zinifex/oz minerals is a great example.




you are correct but thats the risk of investing in the market. its all about risk v reward. You do the research and all you can do is invest on those probabilities. There are plenty of stories of woe in the bigcaps - ie Baboon n brown, massive writedowns in the banks etc,so there is risk in all stocks. You wont make money holding cash and no stock goes up in a straight line. most midcap miners are having a breather and this was expected and normal


----------



## jonnycage

back in these guys after being an early aztec resources holder years
ago and was made mount gibson holder.  held way too long back
then, go out with the dramas that unfolded, thought at 1.02 have another crack

jc


----------



## legs

Poor today, no announcement, that i can see. 

No news that i can see would have an effect on the Share Price, Does anyone know what happened?


----------



## Agent 86

Hey legs,

What announcement were you expecting, or have I missed something?

MGX goes nowhere other than range trading until another ann....

86


----------



## laurie

No interest in MGX! looking at the chart it's steadily heading up in a controlled manner rather seeing a saw tooth chart it's the way I like it will see $1.5 next week at this rate of climb,results look good and could only improve on top of what already is an impressive report JMHO

cheers laurie


----------



## b4subi05

Just noting another nice little jump late today. Is there something in the background? Perhaps another settlement with a defaulted supplier or something bigger? Anyone heard anything?


----------



## legs

I was wondering the same thing today myself.
Normally there is an announcement or something to coincide with a move against the trend like this.

 But then again this company aren't a big one for announcements.


----------



## legs

Continues to rally strongly. 

Not that i am complaining but would really like to not what is driving this rally.


Any ideas?


----------



## vincent191

It has been going up consistently and on good volumne. This is definately not a 1-day wonder, this stock has now got good support and will continue it's good work.


----------



## legs

vincent191 said:


> It has been going up consistently and on good volumne. This is definately not a 1-day wonder, this stock has now got good support and will continue it's good work.




Iwish all my stocks would go up "consistantly" at 3-6% a day!!! It would make me Legs a very wealthy man....


----------



## laurie

Needs to back off a bit as profit takers will drag it back down $1.35-$1.40 not that will worry me 

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

hmm something has lit a fire under MGX this is now ready to receive a speeding ticket from the ASX Police 

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

ah now I know who started the fire Fushan increasing its holding maybe they are positioning themselves for a takeover of MGX by protecting the back door bring it on happy to sell @ $2.5+ 

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie

hmm amazed at the lack of interest in this on this forum it closed at $2.34 on Friday heading to the $2.5 that I mentioned almost a year ago this baby is quietly flying under the radar even avoiding a speeding ticket from the ASX 

laurie


----------



## Staggerlee

I had noticed the lack of interest in this stock in more than one forum i frequent and was starting to wonder if everyone knew something i didnt.
Good to see someone talking about it, I agree with the $2.5 target and hope it comes sooner rather than later.


----------



## Boggo

laurie said:


> hmm amazed at the lack of interest in this on this forum




Don't let the lack of _discussion_ on here fool you Laurie, there is a lot of interest in MGX at the moment.

The number of sub $5 stocks just on the S&P ASX300 that are putting in exceptional performances at the moment is even more amazing 

This stock was a candidate for tech/a's breakout etc thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20906) but I think that most of the subscribers to that thread would probably agree that there would be about thirty pages if we were to to post up all the possibilities with an associated  commentary, I could probably have posted over a dozen in the last week, MGX being one of them.

(click to expand)


----------



## laurie

Thanks for the chart Boggo its a nice trend up without the steep climb I await the day they announce their first dividend oh to remember the days of it stuck at .80cents 

laurie


----------



## shinobi346

I'm still a holder from many years ago. I'm too am waiting for their first dividend. In the latest BRM report they compare against a few other mining companies, MGX being one of them and they don't look too shabby.


----------



## laurie

Trading halt? possible capital raising, don't think so the only thing that comes to my mind is Takeover offer!!

laurie


----------



## skc

laurie said:


> Trading halt? possible capital raising, don't think so the only thing that comes to my mind is Takeover offer!!
> 
> laurie




Haha. I wish it's a takeover as well. But it just looks like they need some time to count those AGM votes...


----------



## shinobi346

I hope it is not a takeover. I haven't got my first dividend yet!!!!

Besides, I don't want shares in a limosine company.


----------



## skc

shinobi346 said:


> I hope it is not a takeover. I haven't got my first dividend yet!!!!
> 
> Besides, I don't want shares in a limosine company.




LOL. Wah Nah announces simultaneous scrip based takeover bid for every iron ore company listed on the ASX...


----------



## skc

Today's price action really highlights how jittery and irrational the market can be...

The chairman stepping down was announced back on 9 Nov. The only thing that happened in the AGO was that one Director didn't get elected. But the share price dropped as if the company has issued a profit warning. The SP opened at $1.73! And now has traded it's way back to $1.95 compared to yesterday's close of $2.01. And this against a sea of greens amongst the iron ore stocks today.

Unbelievable.


----------



## pixel

skc said:


> Today's price action really highlights how jittery and irrational the market can be...
> 
> The chairman stepping down was announced back on 9 Nov. The only thing that happened in the AGO was that one Director didn't get elected. But the share price dropped as if the company has issued a profit warning. The SP opened at $1.73! And now has traded it's way back to $1.95 compared to yesterday's close of $2.01. And this against a sea of greens amongst the iron ore stocks today.
> 
> Unbelievable.




Could some insightful person please expand on the intricacies of yesterday's votes and withdrawn re-election nomination? A spill attempt perhaps??


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> Could some insightful person please expand on the intricacies of yesterday's votes and withdrawn re-election nomination? A spill attempt perhaps??




A decent piece on the situation.
http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1088357



> Shareholders of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (MGX.AU) went against retiring chairman Ian Hamilton and voted down the re-appointment of one of the company's non-executive directors, in a move which leaves directors linked to APAC and Fushan, among the company's biggest customers, holding a majority of board seats.






> Lee Seng Hui, a non-executive director of APAC Resources Ltd. (1104.HK), which owns 25.85% of Mount Gibson, was reappointed as non-executive Wednesday. With Hamilton and Knowles gone, that leaves seven directors in the board of Mount Gibson. The vote Wednesday effectively gives control of the company's board to shareholders APAC, a Hong Kong-based commodities trader, and Fushan International Energy, which owns 14.24%.


----------



## NewToTheTrade

*MGX- Mount Gibson Iron*

Hi, couldnt find a thread about MGX so just made one.

What do you guys rekon of this stock
(Not asking for buy or sell)


----------



## NewToTheTrade

sorry, didnt see a thread. My bad.


----------



## tinhat

*Re: MGX- Mount Gibson Iron*



NewToTheTrade said:


> Hi, couldnt find a thread about MGX so just made one.
> 
> What do you guys rekon of this stock
> (Not asking for buy or sell)




Great potential. The issue of getting a balanced board has not been resolved though, and one wonders whether it will be resolved. I own, but I'm cautious. I paid too much for my MGX shares too, so at this stage, I will be happy to get my money back. I am confident that I will.


----------



## trader045

*MGX*

Does any one hold MGX (mount gibson....) looks like it has good fundomentals what are your thoughts.....


----------



## Miner

For those following MGX would have noticed the bomb shell news in ASX today with trading halt and Luke Tonkin's resignation.
CEO/MD goes and comes but what also goes and comes - shareholders future.
Luke IMO has been doing very well. But aparently some of the capital projects executed in pear shaped. What is more interesting the wording of the ASX announcement from MGX - after negotiation Luke has resigned. He is going to stay for another 6 months for transition.
Questions : 
Was Luke asked to resign ? No news there !

Has Luke resigned on his own for what ? If got another job then 6 months notice is long time .

Is he a scape goat of some thing market will come to know later ?

Is there a take over by which the new owner has put a condition to have Luke to leave the organisation till the new owner comes in?

Why the SP went down by 4.58% today prior to this announcement and why the announcement was not made before the market opened this morning?

MGX fundamentally a good company. There are surely lot many news will come to see next few weeks.
Disclaimer : DNH


----------



## notting

Miner said:


> Questions :
> Was Luke asked to resign ? No news there !
> Has Luke resigned on his own for what ? If got another job then 6 months notice is long time .
> Is he a scape goat of some thing market will come to know later ?
> Is there a take over by which the new owner has put a condition to have Luke to leave the organisation till the new owner comes in?
> Why the SP went down by 4.58% today prior to this announcement and why the announcement was not made before the market opened this morning?
> Disclaimer : DNH



Was Luke asked to resign ? - They could say anything to that.
Is he a scape goat or some thing market will come to know later like a take over? - Unlikely they could be sued for not disclosing it. 
SP down - perhaps people like him and he could not be convinced to stay given he was being rail roaded by Chinese white anting to get control of the resources.  Our pollies are not protecting us from China.

MGX is a good company now it's controlled by Chinese and share holders have been robbed.


----------



## laurie

This what happens when too many owners hold approx. the same amount of shares in MGX like a ship without a captain or rudder


----------



## Miner

skc said:


> Today's price action really highlights how jittery and irrational the market can be...
> 
> The chairman stepping down was announced back on 9 Nov. The only thing that happened in the AGO was that one Director didn't get elected. But the share price dropped as if the company has issued a profit warning. The SP opened at $1.73! And now has traded it's way back to $1.95 compared to yesterday's close of $2.01. And this against a sea of greens amongst the iron ore stocks today.
> 
> Unbelievable.




Did you mean AGO or MGX ?
The CEO of MGX has resigned and unsure if Chairman also resigned on 9 Nov ?


----------



## skc

Miner said:


> Did you mean AGO or MGX ?
> The CEO of MGX has resigned and unsure if Chairman also resigned on 9 Nov ?




Miner that post was from Nov *2010*. And I had a typo of AGO instead of *AGM*.

It's all too confusing


----------



## notting

Bounced with good volume off previous resistance where it also bounced with good volume at around 1.18 to 1.20.
However the market could be about to collapse so not going in at this point.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Wide ranging days with high volume have been very good entry points of late.  The indicator at the bottom is range*volume.  Wait for the first C>O should be a low risk entry.  Safer would be C>O and C>previous day's close and be prepared to sell next open or within a few days.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Grabbed some at 1.21.  Mental stoploss at 1.19, unless it gaps way past it tomorrow!

Traders sitting at 1.20 (double bottom) provide a reasonable buffer for the moment.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I dug out my old "bottom scraping AFL" and ran it a few times with simple profitstop and stoploss optimization.  Turns out a wide stop loss and a small profit target is preferable.  So I'll apply that here, see how we go.


----------



## Tukker

Gringotts Bank said:


> Grabbed some at 1.21.  Mental stoploss at 1.19, unless it gaps way past it tomorrow!
> 
> Traders sitting at 1.20 (double bottom) provide a reasonable buffer for the moment.




Hi Gringott,

Curious if you executed your stop or if you went on to lock in some profits?  I have ordered a short at 1.14, stop at 1.19.  Do your charts tell you the same?


----------



## Macros

MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.

I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.

MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.

I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.

If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html


----------



## nulla nulla

Macros said:


> MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.
> 
> I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.
> 
> MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.
> 
> I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.
> 
> If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
> http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html




Did you look into the "Ownership/Independent Directors/Management" issues that have received so much negative media recently? There may be a reason the share price is drifting down. 
Mind you if it drifts much lower it may become a take-over target from the chinese.


----------



## reeftip

> Mind you if it drifts much lower it may become a take-over target from the chinese.



I think its a take over target now.


----------



## ColB

Macros said:


> MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.
> 
> I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.
> 
> MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.
> 
> I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.
> 
> If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
> http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html




Let's all jump on board as 'the macro market indicator' says it's time to be bullish and now that Macro is in we can make him some more money by buying up.


----------



## Macros

nulla nulla said:


> Did you look into the "Ownership/Independent Directors/Management" issues that have received so much negative media recently? There may be a reason the share price is drifting down.
> Mind you if it drifts much lower it may become a take-over target from the chinese.




I saw that there was some issues in regards to this and remember hearing about it some time ago.

The reason why this doesn't concern me is that the share price performance makes perfect sense to me:
- macro factors were very poor
- iron ore prices were under pressure
- these uncertainties have now been alleviated in my view (for now)

If you look at the price performance of MGX compared to FMG and RIO over the past 1 year, they are very similar. I have been very negative on iron ore producers over the past year and have surprised myself in realising that now is a good time for a position. It is for that reason that any management concerns have had very little impact on price in my opinion.

Not only that, if management are so bad then why do they have:
- negligible debt
- solid profitability and forecast to improve
- good cash flows, margins and relatively low shareholder dilution

Without knowing the specifics of any concerns about management, this company looks to be very well run and should do well with improved outlook in both equities and reduction in iron ore price concerns.


----------



## Macros

ColB said:


> Let's all jump on board as 'the macro market indicator' says it's time to be bullish and now that Macro is in we can make him some more money by buying up.




Apologies for sharing my views on a stock. I'm sure that my views shared on ASF are going to have a massive impact on the share price of a $1.3b company. If they aren't welcome here then I won't post again.


----------



## nulla nulla

Macros said:


> .........Not only that, if management are so bad then why do they have:
> - negligible debt
> - solid profitability and forecast to improve
> - good cash flows, margins and relatively low shareholder dilution
> 
> Without knowing the specifics of any concerns about management, this company looks to be very well run and should do well with improved outlook in both equities and reduction in iron ore price concerns.




I suspect the former management had a good handle on the running of the company which is why it is as well positioned as it is. Like you I also watch it and compare it with RIO, BHP, and FMG (but as a junior operator in comparison). I believe they took a hit with the canceled contracts, litigation for cancelled shipping and the scramble to recapitalisere when the gst hit. 

I suspect that they may have seen a lot of their production locked in at less than favourable rates and are now paying for this with board room and share holder ructions. It would not surprise me to see one of the major share holders increase their holdings at the current price levels or even lob a buy out.

Mining stocks are not my strong point so, like most others, I appreciate input from all ASF posters. I wouldn't stop posting just because one old hag slagged off (no offence colb ).


----------



## Macros

nulla nulla said:


> I suspect the former management had a good handle on the running of the company which is why it is as well positioned as it is. Like you I also watch it and compare it with RIO, BHP, and FMG (but as a junior operator in comparison). I believe they took a hit with the canceled contracts, litigation for cancelled shipping and the scramble to recapitalisere when the gst hit.
> 
> I suspect that they may have seen a lot of their production locked in at less than favourable rates and are now paying for this with board room and share holder ructions. It would not surprise me to see one of the major share holders increase their holdings at the current price levels or even lob a buy out.
> 
> Mining stocks are not my strong point so, like most others, I appreciate input from all ASF posters. I wouldn't stop posting just because one old hag slagged off (no offence colb ).




Nulla Nulla,

The way I view it is that it may be a time for a turn-around, as not all things stay the same. I won't stop posting on the basis of one comment, however I wanted to test the waters.


----------



## Boggo

Macros said:


> *MGX is looking great.*
> 
> *MGX is clearly a bargain*






Macros said:


> Apologies for sharing my views on a stock. I'm sure that my views shared on ASF are going to have a massive impact on the share price of a $1.3b company. If they aren't welcome here then I won't post again.




Its not that they are not welcome, its probably more to do with your bold statements that got the well deserved proportional response.


----------



## ColB

Boggo said:


> Its not that they are not welcome, its probably more to do with your bold statements that got the well deserved proportional response.




No offence Macro but my response was due to interpreting your post as a bit of a ramp.  

Your post [1109] justifies your reason for purchase with valid fundamental analysis without telling us what a 'bargain' it is.

Happy to see you still in green and good luck with MGX.

PS:  Nulla, how did you know I am an 'old' hag?


----------



## nulla nulla

ColB said:


> PS:  Nulla, how did you know I am an 'old' hag?




The great spirit in the sky told me, or maybe it was the one in the red I was drinking last night?


----------



## nulla nulla

Macros said:


> MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.
> 
> I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.
> 
> MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.
> 
> I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.
> 
> If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
> http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html




All credit to you. That was an excellent call, particularly if you were looking for a quick return. Closed friday at $1.28. It would seem that the market agrees with you in respect of the potential upside to mgx. 




Well done. 

p.s. nuthewiser would be proud of you.


----------



## Macros

nulla nulla said:


> All credit to you. That was an excellent call, particularly if you were looking for a quick return. Closed friday at $1.28. It would seem that the market agrees with you in respect of the potential upside to mgx.
> 
> View attachment 45792
> 
> 
> Well done.
> 
> p.s. nuthewiser would be proud of you.




Thanks nulla nulla - I appreciate it.

While the move has been nice, I typically aim for 100% upside potential and think that the current conditions allow for it. Until the conditions change, or I'm happy with the gain, I'll stick with it. I think the next six months should be interesting.

The short term move was great timing, but that could have been luck - my strengths and indicators are better suited over six month timeframes.


----------



## Macros

MGX has had a very nice run these past two weeks. Too fast in my view. Sold today at $1.43 and will look to buy again at lower levels. Positive longer term view remains.


----------



## tinhat

On the charts MGX share price does not appear out of the woods yet, but depending on your take on the stability of its management and its corporate governance issues, it's damned cheap.

Director Geoffry Hill bought 30,000 shares yesterday.

Analyst commentary puts a buy on MGX with a target of $3. Shayne Heffernen. I have no idea who these people are:
http://www.livetradingnews.com/mount-gibson-iron-limited-asxmgx-a-strong-buy-66395.htm#.T3JkFjHxq70


----------



## fanger

I bought in a $1.24 hoping for a bounce but instead the share price slid back down to current levels.


----------



## tinhat

Director Simon Godric Bertie Bird (I'd like to meet his parents) acquired 20,000 shares yesterday for $23,050.


----------



## notting

Fell into it's dividend payment, then fell by it's dividend amount today as it went ex.
Now double dipping on support that's held since early Oct 2009!!
There was a pick up in volume as it fell through it's day low toward the end of the day and that continued into the close. Not a good short term sign!
Will keep an eye on it next week to see if buyers come in with a bit of volume or see if it breaks down with a bit of volume!!


----------



## nulla nulla

notting said:


> Fell into it's dividend payment, then fell by it's dividend amount today as it went ex.
> Now double dipping on support that's held since early Oct 2009!!
> There was a pick up in volume as it fell through it's day low toward the end of the day and that continued into the close. Not a good short term sign!
> Will keep an eye on it next week to see if buyers come in with a bit of volume or see if it breaks down with a bit of volume!!




Well worth keeping an eye on.


----------



## Bibimbap

Hit a low of $1.02 yesterday. 
Tonight's your money your call valued it at around $1.45.
People's view of its short to medium term prospects?
Fundamentally, I think it is a good business with no debt, n a 7 year mine life.
Got a small amt at $1.05 today


----------



## Nutmeg

The share price weakness in this company is largely caused, in my view, by the disfavour with which it is viewed by institutional investors.  But you can see why institutions don't like this company: 

1. large blocking shareholders; 

2. the risk that the block shareholders will put their own interests ahead of the company;

3. the fact that the block shareholders are also customers of the company and are suspected of trying to renegotiate contracts on more favourable terms; 

4. board disharmony; and

5. concerns of a China slowdown and the concomitant weakening of the iron ore price.

All these concerns are very real and should not be discounted entirely.  But of course it is the extent to which these concerns need to be discounted that is the difference between risk and value.    

For what it's worth, it seems to me that MGX is a classic example of a great company that is presently unloved and with a cloud hanging over it.  The question is: if the cloud breaks will it bring sunshine or rain?


----------



## Nutmeg

I should add to the list above of reasons why institutions don't like MGX - the regular and generous awarding of options to board members!  See today's announcement after the close of trade.


----------



## notting

It was a good prospect, now it's just a prospective not for profit supplier to it's customers.
You wouldn't want them to use the debtless levage capacity to make a take over some other miner with share holder equity. 
Thus inceasing it's wholesale supply capacity at no expense to it's owner/customers.

Then again if the market gets frothy it's bound to get a run as those trying to catch the rally look for stuff that's still valuable looking.


----------



## tinhat

Nutmeg said:


> I should add to the list above of reasons why institutions don't like MGX - the regular and generous awarding of options to board members!  See today's announcement after the close of trade.




The announcement today is regarding issuing of shares for the dividend reinvestment plan which I assume all shareholders are entitled to opt into. Please let me know if I am missing something.


----------



## Nutmeg

tinhat said:


> The announcement today is regarding issuing of shares for the dividend reinvestment plan which I assume all shareholders are entitled to opt into. Please let me know if I am missing something.




Yes, you're right.  Apologies.  Do you know if the 2,000,000 "unlisted options" referred to at paragraph 9 also refer to the dividend reinvestment plan?


----------



## tinhat

Nutmeg said:


> Yes, you're right.  Apologies.  Do you know if the 2,000,000 "unlisted options" referred to at paragraph 9 also refer to the dividend reinvestment plan?




I don't know who owns those options. They are the last unlisted options left. In previous years options owners have been converting their options to shares at lower prices (from around 70c up to 90c). MGX is currently reporting that there are no directors who hold options.

The 62% Fibonacci retracement of the 2009-10 bull run is around $1. If the stock doesn't find support above $1 then who knows where it will end up.


----------



## Miner

notting said:


> It was a good prospect, now it's just a prospective not for profit supplier to it's customers.
> You wouldn't want them to use the debtless levage capacity to make a take over some other miner with share holder equity.
> Thus inceasing it's wholesale supply capacity at no expense to it's owner/customers.
> 
> Then again if the market gets frothy it's bound to get a run as those trying to catch the rally look for stuff that's still valuable looking.




MGX got some serious issues.
First the CEO left few months now.
The projects on site got serious problem. They should audit the scope of works vs completion if not done already. This is well known to site but surprisingly not yet evaluated properly - so project delay, rework and more capital to be invested. MGX is not alone - with poor planning and execution it is some times inevitable with med Caps.
I held MGX some times back and still watching for the right time.
Iron Ore is not so much hot any way for small players like AGO, MGX any way. Some of the large building contractors got bank rupt suggesting less building projects and hence lesser iron demand by China in near terms. 
DYOR


----------



## Nutmeg

Miner said:


> The projects on site got serious problem... This is well known to site but surprisingly not yet evaluated properly - so project delay, rework and more capital to be invested. MGX is not alone - with poor planning and execution it is some times inevitable with med Caps.




Where did you hear that MGX is suffering project delays?  It's difficult not to assume that so much negativity has been built into this stock that rumours of project delays (if they are rumours) would make much difference.  I think today's weakness has to do with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing that weakening ore and coal prices pushed export prices down by 7 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.


----------



## felix000

Nutmeg said:


> The share price weakness in this company is largely caused, in my view, by the disfavour with which it is viewed by institutional investors.  But you can see why institutions don't like this company:
> 
> 1. large blocking shareholders;
> 
> 2. the risk that the block shareholders will put their own interests ahead of the company;
> 
> 3. the fact that the block shareholders are also customers of the company and are suspected of trying to renegotiate contracts on more favourable terms;
> 
> 4. board disharmony; and
> 
> 5. concerns of a China slowdown and the concomitant weakening of the iron ore price.
> 
> All these concerns are very real and should not be discounted entirely.  But of course it is the extent to which these concerns need to be discounted that is the difference between risk and value.
> 
> For what it's worth, it seems to me that MGX is a classic example of a great company that is presently unloved and with a cloud hanging over it.  The question is: if the cloud breaks will it bring sunshine or rain?




I've been researching this stock lately and can't think of why it would have fallen out of favour so badly except for a resources pull back. (these are my initial thoughts http://equityideas.squarespace.com/strategy1-ideas-mgx).. maybe what you are suggesting is having a bigger effect. Do you think this still applies after the board restructure which was discussed in the Feb 23 announcement?


----------



## tinhat

felix000 said:


> I've been researching this stock lately and can't think of why it would have fallen out of favour so badly except for a resources pull back. (these are my initial thoughts http://equityideas.squarespace.com/strategy1-ideas-mgx).. maybe what you are suggesting is having a bigger effect. Do you think this still applies after the board restructure which was discussed in the Feb 23 announcement?




Limited mine life is one issue. Currently,

Extension Hill - 5 years.
Koolan Island - 7 years.
Tallering Peak - < 1 year?


----------



## skc

tinhat said:


> Limited mine life is one issue. Currently,
> 
> Extension Hill - 5 years.
> Koolan Island - 7 years.
> Tallering Peak - < 1 year?




When it comes to mine life I get the feeling that the market is short sighted. There tends to be a premium built into the miners with short mine life, as if the market thinks that current management will be able to struck additional gold (or iron ore or whatever) between now and the end of the operating mine.

If they do find something you have something like a NST.
If they don't you have something like a RMS.

Just an observation although I am no mining share expert.


----------



## Miner

Nutmeg said:


> Where did you hear that MGX is suffering project delays?  It's difficult not to assume that so much negativity has been built into this stock that rumours of project delays (if they are rumours) would make much difference.  I think today's weakness has to do with data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing that weakening ore and coal prices pushed export prices down by 7 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.




Dear Nutmeg 
If you are in mining

I am sorry for seeing your query very late. I did visit ASF occassionally but with my lesser frequent visits in ASF, the delay cuased.
Okay, if you are in the Mining  game as a Miner and not as a shareholder alone in WA, you would realise every one talks about mining success and stuff up well in advance the market knows about it. 
There are principally two sources : the people working there and talk in pub. It goes higher when they see an old buddy and over a beer opens hearts.

The second source is the vendors of the company. They no matter what confidentiality is executed, talk with a potential client about their availability to do a job because they see no value in another project or they are not available because of high commitment in another project. It works both ways. It is very natural when a prospective client asks direct question about their commitment to a new bid. 

Of course, you can not ignore the local community around a mining town.

So under the letter of law such information is not insider trading but more of a commonsense.

It is just not MGX alone. I have seen how vendors were frustrated when FMG delayed payment to vendors outrightly but due to market condition vendors were stuck with FMG with a hope one day they will pay. their patience have now paid off.

With MGX the situation is not same as FMG or AGO. The project management at MGX I believe is single handedly managed (?)  by a consultant . The management is not having same level of skills and experience as you would see in BHPB, Rio or FMG. Market is competitive. Check out the profiles of senior management and just not the directors. Drop in at MGX office at Perth and meet the guys there to have a cup of coffee. 

So they tend to select less competent contractors and hence the resultant comment I said. It is my personal opinion and as always I could be very much wrong on my perception. DYOR.

*Disclaimer : I do not work for MGX directly or indirectly, and do not hold MGX shares. *


----------



## Nutmeg

Miner said:


> It is just not MGX alone. I have seen how vendors were frustrated when FMG delayed payment to vendors outrightly but due to market condition vendors were stuck with FMG with a hope one day they will pay. their patience have now paid off.
> 
> With MGX the situation is not same as FMG or AGO. The project management at MGX I believe is single handedly managed (?)  by a consultant . The management is not having same level of skills and experience as you would see in BHPB, Rio or FMG. Market is competitive. Check out the profiles of senior management and just not the directors. Drop in at MGX office at Perth and meet the guys there to have a cup of coffee.
> 
> So they tend to select less competent contractors and hence the resultant comment I said. It is my personal opinion and as always I could be very much wrong on my perception. DYOR.
> 
> *Disclaimer : I do not work for MGX directly or indirectly, and do not hold MGX shares. *




Thanks Miner.  I had gathered that MGX has a less than amicable relationship with its contractors by the number of litigated claims pending against it.  Litigation can be an awful and needless drain on a company's finances.


----------



## Nutmeg

Paul Dougas, a director of MGX, purchased shares today for his super fund.  Good to see that insiders are buying.


----------



## skc

Nutmeg said:


> Paul Dougas, a director of MGX, purchased shares today for his super fund.  Good to see that insiders are buying.




He bought 2 days ago.

MGX joining the growing list of stocks that are in the "breaking the buck" club.

Other new members include LNC, STB, LYC, PAN, AWC. Who's next?!


----------



## StumpyPhantom

skc said:


> He bought 2 days ago.
> 
> MGX joining the growing list of stocks that are in the "breaking the buck" club.
> 
> Other new members include LNC, STB, LYC, PAN, AWC. Who's next?!




MGX has today got itself a new CEO.

Does anybody think that will put its share price on the road back?


----------



## Nutmeg

MGX is now selling considerably below book value.


----------



## notting

Nutmeg said:


> MGX is now selling considerably below book value.




True but look at what it did during the GFC.  If Spain faulters it's going to be far worse than that!!


----------



## Nutmeg

notting said:


> True but look at what it did during the GFC.  If Spain faulters it's going to be far worse than that!!




I am not sure what you mean by "falters".  If you mean that Spain might leave the Eurozone, that will be a good thing, since it will then be able to devalue its currency and have a better chance of trading itself out of recession.  This applies to Greece and Italy also.  But I take your point: it's gonna get bloody.


----------



## notting

Nutmeg said:


> I am not sure what you mean by "falters".




It's too big too bail out the banks would need massive assistance from the sovereigns who would also have issues!!  Money printing would just have to go berserk to keep the system functioning.


----------



## NewToTheTrade

currently hold this stock. missed the boat. should have sold at February highs. Any advice?


----------



## Nutmeg

NewToTheTrade said:


> currently hold this stock. missed the boat. should have sold at February highs. Any advice?




You need to make a call on where you see iron ore prices and therefore China heading.  I hold MGX.  I expect some softening in China's demand but the iron ore price will likely hold above $120.  I intend to buy more MGX once I see the macro picture settle down.


----------



## NewToTheTrade

Nutmeg said:


> You need to make a call on where you see iron ore prices and therefore China heading.  I hold MGX.  I expect some softening in China's demand but the iron ore price will likely hold above $120.  I intend to buy more MGX once I see the macro picture settle down.




Thanks for your insight.

Also think china is going south


----------



## pixel

MGX made a nice run, offering two good swings.

Today, the second leg up ended, and the break below $1.02 suggested going Short (if you're into that kind of thing.) Short was further confirmed by the break below the volatility band (marked by red/yellow arrow.)


----------



## notting

Yep,  Was looking to do that today but got distracted.  Hopefully get another chance as we may get one more lunge into ASX risistance, then smack down.


----------



## pixel

notting said:


> Yep,  Was looking to do that today but got distracted.  Hopefully get another chance as we may get one more lunge into ASX risistance, then smack down.




You may have to wait, Notting;
according to my crystal ball, tomorrow should see a sharp move down. Index Options are due to expire, and I believe the writers of 4250 Calls will try their darnedest to avoid paying up. Could even be touch'n'go at 4225:


----------



## notting

pixel said:


> You may have to wait, Notting;




Yes, money will be made in the mean time by the look of it.


----------



## fanger

I didn't think mgx reported that badly, inline with most of the other miners but got punished yesterday.


----------



## skc

fanger said:


> I didn't think mgx reported that badly, inline with most of the other miners but got punished yesterday.




How long is MGX's mine life?


----------



## Bibimbap

skc said:


> How long is MGX's mine life?





MGX's mine life is short ...

It also declared a 2 cents fully franked dividend for the 2nd half of the year... hmm... looks pretty good value here with a dividend.


----------



## fanger

Miners are still in the doldrums


----------



## Pager

fanger said:


> Miners are still in the doldrums





Yes, its unbelievable, some down 50/60/70% in the past 12 months, quite why they are so on the nose is strange  when the rest of the market is going from strength to strength.

The big stocks like BHP seem to be ok and the species are doing what species do but the smaller to mid size stocks, many like MGX in production and making money are tanking


----------



## fanger

Pager said:


> Yes, its unbelievable, some down 50/60/70% in the past 12 months, quite why they are so on the nose is strange  when the rest of the market is going from strength to strength.
> 
> The big stocks like BHP seem to be ok and the species are doing what species do but the smaller to mid size stocks, many like MGX in production and making money are tanking




Down here MGX is only on a P/E of 4.7 ,seems cheap to me but the market disagrees.


----------



## skc

fanger said:


> Down here MGX is only on a P/E of 4.7 ,seems cheap to me but the market disagrees.






skc said:


> How long is MGX's mine life?




One shouldn't use PE valuation for a short mine life. PE multiple assumes the E is perpetual.


----------



## piggybank

Have we reached the bottom (fishing)? Time will tell!!


----------



## PinguPingu

Still a crap load of volume to get through in the 70's and 80c's...bit all over the place on the result but I think it could be good for a dividend run up trade.


----------



## pixel

after its sp doubled in less than 3 months, a pullback was in order. Support was found at a strong Fibonacci level, with additional support from long- and medium-term EMAs. MACD momentum has also turned around.





September Quarterly, talking about 38cps cash in bank and solid production and sales data, has been well received and sparked a best-in-class performance today:


> By Rhiannon Hoyle
> 
> SYDNEY--Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (MGX.AU) said iron-ore sales in the first quarter were the second highest in its history, as the company increased output from its Koolan Island operations in Western Australia state.
> 
> The Perth-based miner Wednesday reported sales of 2.6 million metric tons in the three months through September. Volumes were up 13% on the previous quarter and just below the record 2.7-million tons of iron ore sold in the three months through December.
> 
> Chief Executive Jim Beyer said the company expected sales of 9.0-9.5 million tons in the fiscal year through June, in line with previous guidance given to investors.
> 
> Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com
> 
> Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> 
> October 15, 2013 18:08 ET (22:08 GMT)




I bought today's Open, traded the first swing, and am now buying again with more buy orders placed around current vwap. If 84 is broken and becomes support, I'll add.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Cup and handle breakout price = 84c.

Good formation, especially on the weekly.


----------



## Knobby22

The check was nice
It appears that confidence is being obtained in the company. The strong performance is quite pleasing in this choppy market suggesting there is still plenty of upside.


----------



## laurie

Cashed up,no debt and great management the quite achiever and the cream on top....... dividends


----------



## stockGURU

This thing just keeps on going north, and is now very close to breaking $1. Currently it's at $0.975, which is a new 12 month high, and if the trend is anything to go by MGX looks set to continue its current trajectory.


----------



## fanger

Bummer I sold out around 88 cents on Monday, I though it was going to have a breather.


----------



## stockGURU

Look at this chart for a nice uptrend. The movement north has been on very good volume for the last three weeks or so and the buying has been relentless. Someone is seeing value in this cashed up, dividend paying company.

Closed at over $1 today for the first time since August 2012.


----------



## stockGURU

MGX has jumped up to $1.10 today on volume much higher than average. Currently sitting at $1.073.

Tech/a, I notice you mentioned that you had jumped into this one. Considering MGX has been so strong lately, what sort of technical signal would prompt you to get out? A lot of people get out because they automatically expect a pullback after such a strong run, but there are those who won't get out until the trend reverses.

Interested in your views on this.


----------



## jdenhaan

The question is really what they're going to do with all this cash.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Top of the measured move today.  The cup and handle (as per above post) has more in it but probably not before a pull back.


----------



## laurie

Might take a punt and say $1.25 is its target then a pull back for the next leg up assuming IO stays around $135/Tonne  long,long term holder rideing the waves hope they increase dividends to 3.5c


----------



## tech/a

Post #95 may be of some interest.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26840&page=5&p=802821#post802821


----------



## jdenhaan

Any reason why this one is in the dumps (-6%) today? Last time I checked, iron ore forecasts were still rather sunny. or was MGX priced to perfection at ~1.10?


----------



## infamous

jdenhaan said:


> Any reason why this one is in the dumps (-6%) today? Last time I checked, iron ore forecasts were still rather sunny. or was MGX priced to perfection at ~1.10?



Similar fate to AGO today, someone dumping their holdings


----------



## VSntchr

See also AGO.
None of the iron-ore miners had a good day, or week for that matter.
FMG has come off a bit and so has BCI (although not as much).

A few stocks seem to be volatile as people come back from holidays, especially given some decent price movements over the holiday period.

Just noticed even RIO came off a bit too.


----------



## pixel

Early this morning, it didn't look like the Market reacted to the Quarterly Report.
I came close to selling. But a second look suggests the potential formation of a Bullish flag.




Reckon I'll stay and see how that pattern plays out. Will there be another test of the channel bottom? Or can it break out for the dividend date in March?


----------



## Knobby22

I did ride this up, but got out as it fell.
My worry is that the mine is running out of iron and will be depleted within 3 years. On that basis the company looks overpriced.
Sure, they say they will make new discoveries or buy other found resources, but the risk seems high. Long term it also looks in a downtrend.


----------



## pixel

Knobby22 said:


> I did ride this up, but got out as it fell.
> My worry is that the mine is running out of iron and will be depleted within 3 years. On that basis the company looks overpriced.
> Sure, they say they will make new discoveries or buy other found resources, but the risk seems high. Long term it also looks in a downtrend.




My attention span doesn't stretch that far, Knobby 
If it breaks out of the channel - as it seems to do right now - I'm happy to trade it up to the next resistance. Wherever that may be.


----------



## Knobby22

pixel said:


> My attention span doesn't stretch that far, Knobby
> If it breaks out of the channel - as it seems to do right now - I'm happy to trade it up to the next resistance. Wherever that may be.




Fair enough Pixel. It does look like it may break out.


----------



## brty

They wont be paying a dividend in March. At the AGM they stated a dividend policy of paying once a year only.


----------



## pixel

brty said:


> They wont be paying a dividend in March. At the AGM they stated a dividend policy of paying once a year only.




Thanks Brty,
I had missed that. Even the fundamentalists in my trading group were surprised.


----------



## Boggo

Knobby22 said:


> Fair enough Pixel. It does look like it may break out.




Probably needs a convincing [_insert your definition_] close above 1.05 to show the start of another run. In market depth leans towards negative sentiment at the moment.


----------



## pixel

Given Shanghai's galloping start into the Year of the Horse", the more efficient io miners should benefit.




I am back on board; bought into the second leg of the breakout and expect the previous High $1.12 to be taken out before month's end. 
If it doesn't, there is always Plan B: Stop on break below $1.01.


----------



## notting

I'll be taking the other side of that trade for sure.

No one wanted it at .45 cents where it's dividend on limited mine life was 10%!
All of a sudden people woke up and thought 'hey maybe Goldman's call on IO prices isn't gospel and this thing is trading at cash in the bank value.
Now ya reckon people are gonna want it at 1.07 with dividend at 3.4%, heaps of risk, IO flooding the market, limited mine life and China wobbling.  
That would make it a technical trade I guess. 
Very happy shorting here and stopping just above 1.12 if voluminousness implies some other reality.
(that is a word, my spell checker is fine with it!)
PPS Voluminousness wasn't right up there today.


----------



## notting

Well that went well.
Seems like China has gone even more bazerk building things to look like they are still growing.
Although we already new the Port Headland figures so - Why so Happy?
Probably don't wanna be short this sector for the minute.


----------



## pixel

Current resistance repeating last November High.
Took profit for now.




Will buy back in if the run continues; but some swing trades may be coming in a candle overlap.


----------



## notting

Yesterdays price action with a spike up then a sell off and low close got me interested in shorting MGX again.

RIO started positive in London last night after it reported quit a nice result but then reversed and finished negative. RIO has started positive today and just dipped into negative territory here, possibly having made a double top. 
So am shorting MGX, thinking it's a sector top and IO could be weak from here with all the new production coming down stream and China having bought aggressively over the last quarter but I suspect will be less so now.
Selling is coming in at the 1.16 mark some of which is me!
But will be trigger happy to get out fast on any upside aggression.


----------



## pixel

Good luck, Notting;
I'm off as well, but that's because of our taking a holiday, meaning I can't keep watching.
Otherwise, I'd sit tight for another 10c upside.


----------



## Knobby22

It looks like a breakout, maybe there is some good news expected. I would wait a bit before shorting.


----------



## notting

Knobby22 said:


> It looks like a breakout, maybe there is some good news expected. I would wait a bit before shorting.



Went in hard doubling up the short at 1.215 at the open yesterday, to be averaged in at 1.1876.
Yet am concerned that sentiment on China seems to have abated and technically it remains that this could go higher.  So felt to take it off the table today at 1.19.
BHP results were good and the opinion is it may break out on valuations.
IO prices were up again over night so appear to have settled for the moment.
The China credit volumes being record highs as reported yesterday has also fueled optimism so as far as a short term trade goes - will sit back and watch to see if some negativity takes the drivers seat again before shorting.


----------



## jdenhaan

MGX came out with some solid numbers today:



> - Record six month sales revenue of $509.5 million (H1 2013: $416.2 million) on record iron ore sales
> of 5.1 million wet metric tonnes (H1 2013: 4.4Mwmt).
> - Net profit after tax increased by 111% to $78.3 million (H1 2013: $37.1 million).
> - Cash and term deposits increased over the half year by $107.9 million to $483.9 million (30-Jun-2013: $376.0 million).
> - Net operating cashflow increased fourfold to $170.6 million (H1 2013: $43.1 million).
> - EBITDA of $212.1 million (H1 2013: $173.9 million).
> - Total Cost of Goods Sold of $77.90/wmt, including royalties (H1 2013: $78.90/wmt).
> - Average realised price (all products) increased to $100/wmt Free On Board (H1 2013: $94/wmt).
> - Koolan Island unit cash mining and site administration costs reduced to under $9 per tonne of ore and  waste moved, in lower half of guidance range.
> - On track to achieve record FY2014 sales of 9.0 to 9.5 million tonnes




And yet we're at -15% today?!?

MGX, even though they produce at high cost, have so much cash on hand that they should be able to hunker down and weather a storm.


----------



## Valued

jdenhaan said:


> WOAH.
> 
> 
> 
> And yet we're at -15% today?!? What am I missing here?




The people who wanted to get out of this stock were likely selling into the good news.

If stock prices go down on good news, it's a warning sign unless you can find some other reason for it (like a company holding this stock was liquidated and the liquidators put their holdings onto the market without any regard for fundamentals).


----------



## notting

They are not paying a mid year dividend all of a sudden.
Grandpa's didn't like that.
With Lee Seng Hui taking over, do you really think they will ever do anything for share holders again?
No


----------



## laurie

notting said:


> They are not paying a mid year dividend all of a sudden.
> Grandpa's didn't like that.
> 
> No




I'm a grandpa and no i prefer interim and final dividend as I'm retired at least its spread over 6 months now its 12 months to wait for a payment


----------



## notting

Smashed today.
On the announcement that it is moth balling it's biggest mine due to wall collapses and low IO price.
Resulting in the majority of workers at the site being laid off, and a hefty impairment charge to be included in
its half-year accounts in February. 
Mount Gibson said it would decide on the mine's future by June next year.

	Shares on Issue	Current price	Market Value
MGX	1090805085	0.22	              $239,977,118.70

Is this bad,  sounds bad, sounds terrible.

But is it?

MGX has 500 million in the bank.  
That is twice as much as the current share price is trading at. Why would you want them to even continue to mine IO in this market?
Better to just mothball the mines and put the cash in some high bearing bonds and sit back.

It's good news!


----------



## skc

notting said:


> But is it?
> 
> MGX has 500 million in the bank.
> That is twice as much as the current share price is trading at. Why would you want them to even continue to mine IO in this market?
> Better to just mothball the mines and put the cash in some high bearing bonds and sit back.
> 
> It's good news!




Cash is now $360m per announcement, and they are still mining 4.4-4.8m tonnes for the year (not sure how much was YTD, but they'd all be cashflow negative), and there'd be costs invovled - $11m redundancy and costs to put the mine in care and maintenance. The writeoff would be a non-factor as no one has ascribed any value there for some time.

So I'd say net cash of around $300m (allowing $50m to do something to the mine before walking away) or 27.5c per share. So it's only trading $60m below cash backing...

Had they simply announce mothballing all mines without the flooding, then it'd be great news.


----------



## notting

Good points.
However -



skc said:


> The writeoff would be a non-factor as no one has ascribed any value there for some time.




Apart from those that sold it down 50% after todays writeoff announcement making it official I suppose. 

Also the impairments are 'non cash.'


----------



## skc

notting said:


> Good points.
> However -
> 
> Apart from those that sold it down 50% after todays writeoff announcement making it official I suppose.
> 
> Also the impairments are 'non cash.'




The 50% sell down is not due to the write off. Its due to the fact that they no longer have a big part of their operating mine.

First AGO, then ARI, then MGX. All <20c. Who's next? BCI is the closest!


----------



## notting

skc said:


> The 50% sell down is not due to the write off. Its due to the fact that they no longer have a big part of their operating mine.
> 
> First AGO, then ARI, then MGX. All <20c. Who's next? BCI is the closest!




Their all no longer viable businesses.
However if they all just stop one will have lots of money in the bank. The others will be in debt.
That's the difference.
If they keep operating it's only going to be more debt.
So the fact that MGX wall collapsed and got flooded with sea water is awesome! 
Cause it's going to make it harder for them to lose more money!


----------



## Miner

notting said:


> Their all no longer viable businesses.
> However if they all just stop one will have lots of money in the bank. The others will be in debt.
> That's the difference.
> If they keep operating it's only going to be more debt.
> So the fact that MGX wall collapsed and got flooded with sea water is awesome!
> Cause it's going to make it harder for them to lose more money!




This will be a great excuse for the top management to divert share holders' attention to nature's hand and get some insurance. I agree with you and SKC's comment


----------



## The Triangle

Still no word on insurance payout.  I get the impression they are gung-ho to restart KI -Or could this all be insurance posturing?   Is it fear of MGX pouring a hundred million into rehab on KI that is keeping the price well below cash backing? 

More than a year on and they still have $345 m of cash.  Net assets of $275 m (assuming zero long-term assets) and managed to increase cash this half by 15 million, yet MC sits at $195.   If iron stays depressed I wonder if they can flog off all the 'worthless' mining assets (and the long-term liabilities) for a token few million to some junior and end up with $320-$330 million of net assets in cash and pay a 1 - 1.5 cent dividend for eternity.

What don't I see that the professionals see about these guys...


----------



## The Triangle

Well, now cash is up to $440 million following an insurance payout.  MC up to 280 million.   I don't understand how so many people miss these opportunities....


----------



## tinhat

The Triangle said:


> Well, now cash is up to $440 million following an insurance payout.  MC up to 280 million.   I don't understand how so many people miss these opportunities....




What opportunity? Do you think shareholders are ever going to see any of that cash horde in their pockets?


----------



## The Triangle

I don't expect them to give it back to shareholders.   History suggests MGX hoard money and don't like to pay dividends.  Who knows what the future holds, but I think the difference between net cash and market cap is too large to be ignored, especially considering they are adding cash each quarter.

The first opportunity saw a return from 19 cents to 27 cents.  I flagged it months ago.  The second opportunity will be from the next insurance payout.  The third opportunity will come from the company eventually doing something with the cash.   I could sell on capital gain alone.  don't need a payout.


----------



## laurie

Still leaving itself open to a take over !!


----------



## The Triangle

laurie said:


> Still leaving itself open to a take over !!



Now sitting at 40 + cents.  Still have hundreds of millions in the bank.  Constructing a mine with a NPV of 500$m on current spot rates.


----------



## The Triangle

My isentia is not performing but at least MGX is.   In latest quarterly/investor preso the pre-tax NPV for KI is 900 million @ spot rates.  Share price looks like it now stay above 50 cents for the foreseeable future with $450 million cash in the bank, no debt and a $600 million market cap this has a very good looking future.


----------



## $20shoes

Nice run of late. The rally may be approaching a final interim phase. However, if you look at historical rallys in MGX they can be extremely exuberant. A lot of past rallies have exceeded 100% gainis before petering out. So when she runs, she runs well. 

Not to point to fine a point on Elliot and stocks (which I'm cautious to do ), you can see a count that might suggest a Wave 5 top somewhere around the 85c mark. I am expectant that we should at least reach this high but may potentially push on, attracted to around number of 90c.


----------



## Zaxon

$20shoes said:


> A lot of past rallies have exceeded 100% gainis before petering out. So when she runs, she runs well.




Excellent.  As a holder of MGX, I insist it does gain 100%.


----------



## The Triangle

Excellent run.  I sold a small holding (was always overweighted in MGX).   Would not be surprised if this touched 90 cents.   

History tells us that MGX trades at a silly low level to where it should be.  About time it started to recover.  

NPV of KI calculated today at spot would surely be over 1 billion.  I wonder if our major shareholders are going to be paying less than top dollar for the ore?  Also will we some of the ‘mineralised waste’ from the mid west sold this quarter as low grade prices skyrocket?


----------



## Ann

S&P have added MGX to the ASX 300 at their quarterly rebalance effective March 18.


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> S&P have added MGX to the ASX 300 at their quarterly rebalance effective March 18.




Yes, I am very excited to see what should lead to upward pressure on the SP.


----------



## Ann

Zaxon said:


> Yes, I am very excited to see what should lead to upward pressure on the SP.




We will have to wait and see Zaxon. Years ago I used to watch the S&P rebalance like a hawk and had a thread on another forum with the quarterly announcements. There didn't really seem any hard and fast outcomes. The thing I did notice to a certain extent was companies dropping off lists sometimes went up, my imagination painted a picture of fundies selling the stock up to get out of it. Other going onto a list tended to fall, again I imagined the fundies buying lower as they accumulated. However this is not something to bank on as it was never consistent. 
I think in MGX and all the iron ore stocks will rise and fall on the iron ore price. This is all going to depend on China growth along with the rest of the world. Currently the chat is slow growth from now on. However, that is this weeks news, next week may be boom times!


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> Years ago I used to watch the S&P rebalance like a hawk and had a thread on another forum with the quarterly announcements. There didn't really seem any hard and fast outcomes.




That is unexpected and interesting observations you've made there.  

Let's look at the fundamentals:
As new companies enter an index then there will be more demand.  Funds that track that index will have to buy up new shares. And people in superannuation who are restricted to only buying shares that belong to that index, could be buying in for the first time.  So definitely there's an increase in demand.

However, I've never tracked the effect personally.  I'd be interested to know over what time period you looked.  When a share goes ex-dividend, the resulting drop in share price is immediate.  But when a stock is added to an index, I can see a range of dates that could be important.


The announcement date. Typically a week before the actual index change, is possibly a time when buyers with discretion could start buying in.
The index change date. Those without discretion, so index funds and people restricted within super, can start buying in from this date.
Buying over time. Funds may need to acquire their stock over a period of time due to limited volumes, so the demand could be spread out over time.


----------



## Smurf1976

Ann said:


> There didn't really seem any hard and fast outcomes.



I'm always cautious about being invested in anything which is undergoing a significant change that isn't routine business.

If it's a good thing then be careful that the market hasn't already priced it in and falls the moment it happens.

If it's a bad thing well it's bad.

What does create a huge opportunity is things which look bad but really aren't so bad in practice. Opposite effect for things which sound good but don't mean much in reality.


----------



## $20shoes

This has turned into a bit of an outlier to help improve my portfolio performance.  
Was expecting some sideways movement from 85-90c but I'll take the upward swing above 90c!


----------



## Smurf1976

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm always cautious about being invested in anything which is undergoing a significant change that isn't routine business.




My caution was unwarranted it seems. At least in the short term I was wrong - up it goes. 

I do not hold.


----------



## Zaxon

Smurf1976 said:


> My caution was unwarranted it seems. At least in the short term I was wrong - up it goes.
> 
> I do not hold.




I hold it.  Iron ore seems to be doing really well lately.  Coal, on the other hand, not so much.


----------



## Cam019




----------



## jonnycage

this one just keeps on rising.  koolan island sales about to start again.  i happilly entered at 68 cents a month or so ago


----------



## Zaxon

jonnycage said:


> this one just keeps on rising.  koolan island sales about to start again.  i happilly entered at 68 cents a month or so ago



Well done.  I'm up 35% on it.  MGX's iron ore is laced with gold.  Gold for us that is.


----------



## $20shoes

Remarkable trend. Shallow pullbacks then onwards and upwards. If only they all as well behaved as MGX.


----------



## jonnycage

agreed,  it is a gem currently


----------



## jjbinks

No signs of slowing down yet!


----------



## The Triangle

Director selling.   That's a sign of slowing down.  She's going to crash now


----------



## jonnycage

dont know about crash,  but level out sure


----------



## jjbinks

jjbinks said:


> No signs of slowing down yet!



I jinxed it!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

The stock has zoomed substantially in the last one year. Is there any major reason for it?


----------



## Zaxon

MARKETWINNER said:


> The stock has zoomed substantially in the last one year. Is there any major reason for it?



Iron ore prices have been going up since the vale issues.  Looking back further MGX had a sea wall collapse.  So they're moving from a non production stage to where they're about to ship out product again.


----------



## HelloU

now at highs 
(with ore $ still increasing)


----------



## Zaxon

And now we're physically shipping product, we've become a more valuable company.


----------



## jonnycage

a good time to be in MGX.


----------



## Ann

I have been very surprised to see MGX share price languishing over the last number of days even though the iron ore price is powering upward. Looking at the Twiggs weekly Money Flow there has been an outflow starting in April and continuing into May and June. The SP has fallen under the 21dsma and it looks as though the 21dsma may be about to cross below the 50dsma in the next day or two. Possibly adding more downward pressure.


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> Looking at the Twiggs weekly Money Flow there has been an outflow starting in April and continuing into May and June.



Yes, I was one of them .  MGX has lost its steam for now.


----------



## Ann

Zaxon said:


> Yes, I was one of them .  MGX has lost its steam for now.



Just for interest sake when did you leave and what made you leave?  Indicators, gut instinct, company ann?


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> Just for interest sake when did you leave and what made you leave?  Indicators, gut instinct, company ann?



I left 5th June, and left due to the change in price direction, exactly as you described.


----------



## willoneau

I got out on the 16 April when it hit 1:20, wasn't part of my system just didn't like how fast it climbed and 1:20 was exactly 100% of my entry.
If i was following my weekly system i would still be in it.


----------



## jonnycage

sold a parcel also at $1.20.  i think a little steam has come out after such a strong rise.  at around $1 should still see some interest


----------



## willoneau

I would be waiting to see a possible failed break on the down side of 0.95 before re-entry.


----------



## Trav.

jonnycage said:


> sold a parcel also at $1.20.  i think a little steam has come out after such a strong rise.  at around $1 should still see some interest




Nice work @jonnycage 

Out of interest I overlaid the Fibonacci Retracement and your call of $1 looks good. 

Did you do the same or have another reason for the $1 support level ( nice round number) ?


----------



## jonnycage

thanks @Trav. !     thought it went up a little to quick without much substance.  more a hunch around $1, but that seems to be off the money today


----------



## jjbinks

Up 10% today


----------



## The Triangle

When 65% iron was $105/t the SP was $1.05
Now 65% iron is $125/t and the SP is $1.05

12 months ago a $1 move in the iron price (62% @ $55/t) equated to a $20m increase in the NPV.   That roughly takes this mine to about an NPV of 1.25 billion as of a year ago - so now - with capex already spent, and a year less to discount - that gives me somewhere in the range of 1.7-1.9 billion in cash+NPV for the value of MGX (market cap is 1.2 billion).  Likely iron won't stay at these levels for another 5 years, but even at $1.05 this is very undervalued.   I still hold about 85% of my original shares.  Won't sell anymore until this gets to the $1.40 range.

Another upside is that I recall that the reserves/resource was about 25 million tonnes before the wall collapse - it's only 21 million now - Will that 4 million tonnes from before now make its way in to the mix?


----------



## jonnycage

time will tell.  happy to wait it out a bit yet


----------



## jonnycage

ships seem to be moving in and out of port,  still strong Iron ore pricing.  looking forward to some banked numbers


----------



## jonnycage

after an old fashion blood bath in July,  perhaps the annual report in August will steady the ship


----------



## jonnycage

a solid quarterly Announcement. 
• Quarterly sales revenue of A$122 million Free on Board (FOB).
• Solid operating cashflow for the quarter of A$25 million.


----------



## sptrawler

jonnycage said:


> a solid quarterly Announcement.
> • Quarterly sales revenue of A$122 million Free on Board (FOB).
> • Solid operating cashflow for the quarter of A$25 million.



They are a company that flies under the radar a bit, are they still mainly operating in the mid West?


----------



## jonnycage

one of my picks for the yearly comp -  Iron pricing pushing back up,  plenty of cash on hand for acquisitions


----------



## jonnycage

Into the middle of 2021 the majority of the waste stripping will be complete,  driving the all in costs down substantially. Shine project coming online shortly also.


----------



## Telamelo

jonnycage said:


> Into the middle of 2021 the majority of the waste stripping will be complete,  driving the all in costs down substantially. Shine project coming online shortly also.



Iron Ore price hits 10-year high on rising steel demand = bigger profit $$ for *FEX *&* MGX *as well as the big miner's of course.

Cheers tela


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> Iron Ore price hits 10-year high on rising steel demand = bigger profit $$ for *FEX *&* MGX *as well as the big miner's of course.
> 
> Cheers tela



$1+ party soon for *MGX*  as quarterly scheduled by Wednesday 21/04/21

REWARDS
Trading at 85.8% below our estimate of its fair value
Revenue is forecast to grow +22.7% per year!


----------



## Telamelo

Iron ore price surges to 10-year high after Vale, Rio miss on output​
https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-pri...oving-steel-margins-and-disappointing-output/
https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-pri...oving-steel-margins-and-disappointing-output/

More bigger profits $$ for cash cows like MGX & FEX with their quarterlies due soon


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> Iron ore price surges to 10-year high after Vale, Rio miss on output​
> https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-pri...oving-steel-margins-and-disappointing-output/
> https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-pri...oving-steel-margins-and-disappointing-output/
> 
> More bigger profits $$ for cash cows like MGX & FEX with their quarterlies due soon



500K buy order steps up on the bid @ 0.875c this morning 






someone wants in lol


----------



## Telamelo

*MGX* reported net profit (after tax) of $74.5M for 6 months ending 31/12/2020 and cash balance of $412M sitting in the bank!

Furthermore, they are on track to cash in on higher iron ore grades & reduced costs (better profit margins) during the second half of 2021   

DYOR as always


----------



## Telamelo

China steel demand leaves iron ore miners Vale, Rio Tinto struggling to keep up


https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-...emand-leaves-miners-vale-rio-tinto-struggling


Not forgetting that Vale has been impacted by covid in Brazil as well & ongoing it seems for a while yet...


----------



## Telamelo

MOUNT Gibson Iron’s development of the new Shine project in Western Australia’s Mid West region is ahead of schedule and on budget, with shipments targeted to commence early next quarter.

https://www.miningnews.net/bulks/news/1408766/mount-gibson’s-shine-ahead-of-schedule


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> MOUNT Gibson Iron’s development of the new Shine project in Western Australia’s Mid West region is ahead of schedule and on budget, with shipments targeted to commence early next quarter.
> 
> https://www.miningnews.net/bulks/news/1408766/mount-gibson’s-shine-ahead-of-schedule



4 reasons why iron ore could surpass $230 per tonne!

The price of high-grade 65% Fe iron ore fines looks set to break through the $230-per-tonne-cfr-Qingdao price ceiling amid tight supply of seaborne cargoes and hefty mill margins, industry sources told Fastmarkets.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Artic...why-iron-ore-could-surpass-230-per-tonne.html


----------



## Telamelo

*MGX* pre-market depth looking strong with 1.73M buy side vs only 1.09M sell side 

P.S. Perhaps a crack towards $1 soon?


----------



## The Triangle

The Triangle said:


> When 65% iron was $105/t the SP was $1.05
> Now 65% iron is $125/t and the SP is $1.05
> 
> 12 months ago a $1 move in the iron price (62% @ $55/t) equated to a $20m increase in the NPV.   That roughly takes this mine to about an NPV of 1.25 billion as of a year ago - so now - with capex already spent, and a year less to discount - that gives me somewhere in the range of 1.7-1.9 billion in cash+NPV for the value of MGX (market cap is 1.2 billion).  Likely iron won't stay at these levels for another 5 years, but even at $1.05 this is very undervalued.   I still hold about 85% of my original shares.  Won't sell anymore until this gets to the $1.40 range.
> 
> Another upside is that I recall that the reserves/resource was about 25 million tonnes before the wall collapse - it's only 21 million now - Will that 4 million tonnes from before now make its way in to the mix?



65% iron is $267/t and SP is $0.99

Rather unfortunate this is the price during the high waste stripping period!


----------



## peter2

Price couldn't go higher than the triple top. Then the price of iron ore fell. The daily price chart shows a dramatic _waterfall_ selloff.


----------



## divs4ever

i wasn't planning to buy more in the near-term  , but since sub-50c  looks likely  , i suppose i should at least think about calculating a target price  , maybe two ( in case the slide continues after the first buy )


----------



## Miner

peter2 said:


> Price couldn't go higher than the triple top. Then the price of iron ore fell. The daily price chart shows a dramatic _waterfall_ selloff.
> 
> View attachment 129971



Unfortunately MGX has recruited a senior manager at a very top level who has ruined the whole game .No chart shows that lack of management calibre and all strategies basically fail from there.
DNH


----------



## divs4ever

yes management can be a huge impediment to success  ( when you get the wrong people )


----------



## Miner

divs4ever said:


> yes management can be a huge impediment to success  ( when you get the wrong people )







__





						Management – Mt Gibson Iron
					






					www.mtgibsoniron.com.au
				



Looking into the key management profile -
CEO - very impressive qualifications on finance side - why he could not hire CFO at least with some financial degrees than just B Bus ?
CFO - great credential. But for a CFO I would be expecting at least a qualification of CA or CPA. 
COO - great experience - gold Newcrest - why left ? Mineral Resources - why left , Ambatovy Nickel - great position VP Operations - but why left ? Is not the COO responsible for ultimate production and low cost ? The CEO is to depend on the COO per se. 
Company Secretary - great qualifications and Law degree - 5 ticks
Historically MGX has never performed


----------



## divs4ever

after previous short stays in NCM , and KCN , a resume including  a post as NCM doesn't inspire me to optimism 

 i understood why NCM took that big hit a few years back  , and will be looking for hints of the same in MGX now 

  and maybe i will set my next buy a fair bit lower , since MGX are planning to expand their footprint 

 cheers


----------



## Telamelo

divs4ever said:


> after previous short stays in NCM , and KCN , a resume including  a post as NCM doesn't inspire me to optimism
> 
> i understood why NCM took that big hit a few years back  , and will be looking for hints of the same in MGX now
> 
> and maybe i will set my next buy a fair bit lower , since MGX are planning to expand their footprint
> 
> cheers



At the moment all technical chart indicators are bearish within current strong downtrend. Until such time we see glimpses of a turnaround.. I'll continue to watch closely from the sidelines awaiting any potential buy alert. 

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/MGX.AX/opinion









						MGX Share Technical Analysis | Mount Gibson Iron Limited
					

Current Technical Analysis and interactive chart for $MGX stock / shares. See the current trading strategy, trend(s), rating and buy and sell signals.




					asx.swingtradebot.com
				




https://www.aussiebulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=MGX.AX

DYOR as always.. Cheers tela


----------



## Miner

Telamelo said:


> At the moment all technical chart indicators are bearish within current strong downtrend. Until such time we see glimpses of a turnaround.. I'll continue to watch closely from the sidelines awaiting any potential buy alert.
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/MGX.AX/opinion
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MGX Share Technical Analysis | Mount Gibson Iron Limited
> 
> 
> Current Technical Analysis and interactive chart for $MGX stock / shares. See the current trading strategy, trend(s), rating and buy and sell signals.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> asx.swingtradebot.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.aussiebulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=MGX.AX
> DYOR as always.. Cheers tela



Excellent


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## Telamelo

Australia's most valuable commodity Iron Ore has seen its price plummet by 45% since May, with warnings that next year could be worse.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...k/news-story/d16287ac37daa5e9f740b2baaba965ac


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## Telamelo

*According to Fastmarkets MB, benchmark 62% Fe fines imported into Northern China were changing hands for $123.84 a tonne, down -4.6% from last Friday's close.

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-dives-on-new-steel-curbs-in-china/
*
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp


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## Miner

STORIES are unfolding on Friday when Trading Halt is over 




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						Management – Mt Gibson Iron
					






					www.mtgibsoniron.com.au
				







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						Presentations – Mt Gibson Iron
					






					www.mtgibsoniron.com.au
				







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						ASX announcements – Mt Gibson Iron
					






					www.mtgibsoniron.com.au
				




As I have posted on this thread, unless the management is changed and there are measures strategically unfortunately Mt Gibson is a long way to be calling any where as a star for investors like me.


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## Sean K

Staged suspension of Shine. Oh dear.


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## The Triangle

Another stinker of a quarterly report out.   MGX down to $250 million cash.    They are so far off the original re-start feasibility that Mr. Kerr should publish an update and then resign.   Shine was a complete abortion, and the iron prices may have collapsed - but they are still much higher than anyone forecast them to be.

I have my suspicions that the re-start feasibility was 'engineered' with regards to capital expenditure.  These things like airstrip, crushers, etc, pit rehab - they happen, they are common - but I don't think they were in the feasibility costs.

Given this risk of IO falling, the perennial underperformance of KI with regards to costs and grade, and Chinese control of MGX, I don't think they should be much more than about 40 cents.

Below is what they said they would do 3.5  years ago


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## Miner

The Triangle said:


> Another stinker of a quarterly report out.   MGX down to $250 million cash.    They are so far off the original re-start feasibility that Mr. Kerr should publish an update and then resign.   Shine was a complete abortion, and the iron prices may have collapsed - but they are still much higher than anyone forecast them to be.
> 
> I have my suspicions that the re-start feasibility was 'engineered' with regards to capital expenditure.  These things like airstrip, crushers, etc, pit rehab - they happen, they are common - but I don't think they were in the feasibility costs.
> 
> Given this risk of IO falling, the perennial underperformance of KI with regards to costs and grade, and Chinese control of MGX, I don't think they should be much more than about 40 cents.



Current quarterly report reflects what I have commented on 7th Sept on this forum. In addition for some reasons, MGX never attracted good management since I have seen very closely back in 2007 and onwards. Bad iron ore days MGX failed. Good iron ore days MGX failed .
There must be something intrinsic into this organization which as a miner can  not speculate.
However a restructure is imminent with company's strategies and management.


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## The Triangle

Miner said:


> Current quarterly report reflects what I have commented on 7th Sept on this forum. In addition for some reasons, MGX never attracted good management since I have seen very closely back in 2007 and onwards. Bad iron ore days MGX failed. Good iron ore days MGX failed .
> There must be something intrinsic into this organization which as a miner can  not speculate.
> However a restructure is imminent with company's strategies and management.
> 
> 
> View attachment 131732



Integrity is everything.   There are a lot of lackluster miners out there who get lofty valuations because the market believes in them (usually because they delivered on a past strategy).  Across the street I look at FEX - they've done well - but I can't see them being profitable this time next year when hedges run out.  MGX on the otherhand should make a killing in the next 3 years - but the market just does not trust them (I don't trust MGX).   

With another quarter expected to be only a few hundred thousand tonnes of ore + capex + shine debacle + divi payment, I could see cash balances just below $200 million for MGX come H1 report and I don't think FY22 will produce a net profit - so probably no dividend for FY22.    Perfect time for the Chinese puppet masters of MGX to take the company over...


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## Miner

The Triangle said:


> Integrity is everything.   There are a lot of lackluster miners out there who get lofty valuations because the market believes in them (usually because they delivered on a past strategy).  Across the street I look at FEX - they've done well - but I can't see them being profitable this time next year when hedges run out.  MGX on the otherhand should make a killing in the next 3 years - but the market just does not trust them (I don't trust MGX).
> 
> With another quarter expected to be only a few hundred thousand tonnes of ore + capex + shine debacle + divi payment, I could see cash balances just below $200 million for MGX come H1 report and I don't think FY22 will produce a net profit - so probably no dividend for FY22.    Perfect time for the Chinese puppet masters of MGX to take the company over...



@The Triangle - In all honesty, company is nothing and it is the people /management first, then product quality and then organizational policies and procedure.
As I have indicated few times on this thread, I have no confidence to put my hard earned money however small it may be on the hands of current management of MGX.


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## Miner

With iron ore price gone below $100 on Friday, it will be interesting to see how iron ore miners like MGX and others are treated on Monday market.


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## sptrawler

Miner said:


> With iron ore price gone below $100 on Friday, it will be interesting to see how iron ore miners like MGX and others are treated on Monday market.



Might be an opportunity for fmg shares


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## The Triangle

Miner said:


> With iron ore price gone below $100 on Friday, it will be interesting to see how iron ore miners like MGX and others are treated on Monday market.



MGX continues to drop but the others have gone steady.  Good to stay on the sidelines for a while with iron in my view.  I really think we're going to see low 80s soon and no letup of production costs or shipping costs for any of the miners.

Hopefully the board gets strike two today.  Not that it would really change much, but would be nice to know their day has gone to sh*t and they have to suffer that bit of embarrassment.


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## divs4ever

my pick  for the January Comp ( in 2022 ) is  MGX 

 now per my usual style   i think MGX will slide lower  as Asia  moves towards their Festive Season and steel manufacturers close down over the holidays ( but i am willing to buy extra MGX is the SP goes low enough )

  and i agree with  The Triangle  when he worries over higher production and shipping costs  , but with the share price liable to slide  back into  the thirties ( cents a share  range ) .. i think i see long-term value


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## The Triangle

MGX down to 134 million cash.    Way beyond my projection of just below 200 million.   Just can't trust these guys.  They really should be issuing better guidance.  

Key positive takeaway for me in the quarterly was the statement on modern slavery....


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## divs4ever

i need it to drop lower still  , before i add more 

 the Asian New Year soon , i could easily get that chance


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## rnr

Hopefully the low of the current bar will hold so that we can get a kick up from here.

Cheers, Rob [DNH]


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## Miner

MGX is on TH.
Luck is a big factor for right decision in right time.
I wanted to sell MGX and decided to do it on Monday instead as a last thought.
The pause of trading announced. I thought bingo, I got a good luck. The TH says - it is a fire. Surely not an ordinary fire to stop the trading.
Simply that will bring down MGX price to furthest south when TH is removed.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02552781-6A1104303?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

Similarly wanted to buy ASM (after selling out on a  profit earlier) and with a delayed decision, the price is only going up and up.
Went for an interview with a miner selling non metallic products (not coal or lithium). Did not get the job as I was too pricey. But the top management was so confident to by pass the Feasibility phase and going straight from PFS to Execution. It was primarily the off takes were all committed and they were so sure of success did not want to waste 12 months on FS. I should have bought the stock as the news came on ASX after couple of weeks and price already gone as far north as it could. That  is again lack of timing with decision.
Bottom-line to time the decision is the key for success and just not the decision.


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## divs4ever

cheers  !

 missed the TH notice   ( saw the pause notice )

 am not adverse to adding  sub 35 cents  ( depending on the details ) ( say bad enough they retain the div.  to fund repairs , would have me thinking hard )

 all good here SO FAR


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