# DJIA



## sanjay346 (12 August 2006)

Dow 30 ia all set to go below 10500 as per Elliott Wave Analysis


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## wavepicker (12 August 2006)

sanjay346 said:
			
		

> Dow 30 ia all set to go below 10500 as per Elliott Wave Analysis




hi sanjay,

can you elaborate on your EW analysys for the DOW?


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## michael_selway (14 August 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> hi sanjay,
> 
> can you elaborate on your EW analysys for the DOW?




yeah and also tiem frame please

thx

MS


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## swingstar (14 August 2006)

From EWI, it's 'near'. Elliott Wave is quite subjective, but EWI technicians are expecting falls.


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## sanjay346 (15 August 2006)

Thx For your feed back. Dow recently completed diognal triangle of inwarted flat after having competed five wave fall. Expect atlest five level fall if the pattern is zigzag. Violation of previous bottom anyway confirmed due to diognal trangle C wave.


			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> hi sanjay,
> 
> can you elaborate on your EW analysys for the DOW?


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## sanjay346 (15 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> yeah and also tiem frame please
> thx
> MS



Let us participate actively and share views about wave count on dow (I believe Nasdaq does not follow wave theory) I promise objective analysis here I have 13 years' experience on wave analysis in Indian market.


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## RichKid (15 August 2006)

sanjay346 said:
			
		

> Let us participate actively and share views about wave count on dow (I believe Nasdaq does not follow wave theory) I promise objective analysis here I have 13 years' experience on wave analysis in Indian market.




Hi Sanjay,

So I assume you've got 13yrs experience applying EW to the Indian market and actually trading your analysis- is that correct? Do you chart just Indian stocks or the averages? I have to admit I have not had a proper attempt at labelling the DJIA yet.

I'm a beginner in EW myself, you can see some of my EW posts in the BMX (what a shocker of a stock!), AWE, GTP and USD threads. Would be good to see some of your work, you can attach stock charts in many file formats on this forum.

Would be great to exchange objective EW views on various aspects of EWP, not many traditional EW people around ASF. There are some other threads on EW- please use the search function if you're interested. Nick Radge and Wavepicker are proficient in EW.  

I look forward to your charts on DJIA.

All the best,
Rich


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## It's Snake Pliskin (16 August 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Hi Sanjay,
> 
> So I assume you've got 13yrs experience applying EW to the Indian market and actually trading your analysis- is that correct? Do you chart just Indian stocks or the averages? I have to admit I have not had a proper attempt at labelling the DJIA yet.
> 
> ...




I agree.

As I still don`t believe in EW but have a curious interest I would like to see someone with experience discuss it.

Snake


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## YOUNG_TRADER (17 August 2006)

Breakout!!!!

Dow Jones Finally broke out above 11263, after trying and failing 3 or 4 times, if it holds above this level I sense the tide of sentiment may finally begin to turn


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## YOUNG_TRADER (19 August 2006)

3 Solid closes above the 11270 level, phewwww, this should act as support for next leg up


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## Sean K (19 August 2006)

Yes, it looks more positive, but i will be more happy if it rises and then comes back down to find support at this level. That would be a more positve sign that we're on the way up again.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, it looks more positive, but i will be more happy if it rises and then comes back down to find support at this level. That would be a more positve sign that we're on the way up again.




I like yesterdays close on the S&P 500 ( higher than august high, the bulls had a win), DJIA still has a bit to go.


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## swingstar (20 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> 3 Solid closes above the 11270 level, phewwww, this should act as support for next leg up




Just a counter-trend of the new bear market.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (24 August 2006)

At least DJIA held above 11270 last night, lets see what the next few days bring


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## Mr_Liquidity (24 August 2006)

The dow pulled back to its short term trend line then jumped back up, it's now starting to weaken again so i will be watching to see if it can make it up agian.

or look for a down break.

for some local and abroad short action   

see attached file


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> At least DJIA held above 11270 last night, lets see what the next few days bring




And again just consolidated at this 11270 level, good to see it didn't fall below it after the release of the very very poor housing sector report, looks like the US is just waiting for some good news to break  up, with bad news just causing them to wait at this level, time will tell


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## swingstar (28 August 2006)

This week will be interesting. 2.9% is ~330 points. 

_"For six of the last nine years, the Dow industrials have lost an average of 2.9 percent in the last week of August, according to the Almanac, while the broader S&P 500 index has lost 2.7 percent. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite has lost an average of 2.4 percent in the week.

The weakness is largely seasonal - late summer is typically brutal for the bulls. Why? Less people trading less shares makes the market more volatile and more susceptible to news that is perceived as negative.

Add in this year's increased worries about an economic slowdown and you have a tough week on tap."_

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/27/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm


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## swingstar (1 September 2006)

Well this week so far has failed to impress, but not all is lost... 

_"They don't call it the cruelest month for nothing.

Yes, that's right, September is just around the corner, and if history is any guide, it's going to be rocky.

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, September has the dubious distinction of being the worst month of the year for all three major gauges - the Dow industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite.

Since 1950, the Dow has fallen an average of 1.1 percent in September, while the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 0.7 percent, according to the Almanac. Over the last 16 years, September is only the second-worst month, after August.

Since its inception in 1971, the Nasdaq has seen an average decline of 1 percent in the month.

September 2006 is unlikely to break the trend, what with a few other issues you may have heard about already dragging on stocks.

Investors have been preoccupied lately with worries about the economy slipping into recession amid the rapidly cooling housing market and its impact on consumer spending. Such a scenario would ultimately hurt corporate profits and drive up stock prices relative to earnings.

At the same time, if inflationary pressures don't start to wane, the concern is that the Federal Reserve might have to restart its recently paused rate-hiking campaign.

Those worries aren't bound to disappear in the month ahead, as investors continue to pounce on any economic report dealing with growth or inflation, particularly leading up to the next Fed policy meeting Sept. 20th.

But now Wall Streeters have to take an additional lump: The start of what has historically been the worst month of the year for stocks.

Granted, history says July and August are typically not very good months either, but it's September with the most dubious record."_

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/31/markets/markets_september/index.htm


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## YOUNG_TRADER (2 September 2006)

DJIA @ 11460 on light volume,


Thats just 250 points shy of May Highs  , if it keeps this up we will definately get a balck October


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## swingstar (8 September 2006)

EW dude says down until December, then up to 40,000 by Feb 08. 

http://video.msn.com/v/us/v.htm?g=4...e3274f0ca03&f=rssmoney&fg=rss&f=15/64rssmoney

Interview was in early August. Said low around 8/9 of Aug, which there was, then high around Sep 4/5, which appears to be happening. 

Picked top on May 10 and low on June 14. 

Also says substantial falls in US housing and decline in interest rates until 2009.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 September 2006)

Last: *11,543.32  * Change: +45.23  +0.39%  Volume: 214,190,218


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## swingstar (19 September 2006)

I'm quite bearish short-term. Dow futures are down 30 points ATM, and we're very close to all-time highs. My favourite indicator, RSI divergence, is showing strong bearish divergence. I think last week's gains will be taken out at least by the end of this week.


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## swingstar (21 September 2006)

Still looking weak IMO, but I don't think it'll erase last week's gains within two days now. After yesterday's crap, I think we'll see down days finishing out the week. Whether it's a trough or reversal is anyone's guess. I'll be leaning towards the latter if 11,500 is broken.


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## wayneL (21 September 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Still looking weak IMO, but I don't think it'll erase last week's gains within two days now. After yesterday's crap, I think we'll see down days finishing out the week. Whether it's a trough or reversal is anyone's guess. I'll be leaning towards the latter if 11,500 is broken.




The only thing that has me worried (as a bear) is that the US punter is in Goldilocks mode, thanks to the incessant BS on Bubblevision.

.....but didn't the bears eventually eat goldilocks?


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## wayneL (21 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> .....but didn't the bears eventually eat goldilocks?



No  



> Just then, Goldilocks woke up and saw the three bears.  She screamed, "Help!"  And she jumped up and ran out of the room.  Goldilocks ran down the stairs, opened the door, and ran away into the forest.  *And she never returned to the home of the three bears.*



Still an acceptable result though


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## swingstar (21 September 2006)

LOL, she never returned because the bears caught up with her.


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## wayneL (21 September 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> LOL, she never returned because the bears caught up with her.




Eeeewwwww!

ROTFLMAO!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (25 September 2006)

Hi guys,

Does anyone know of a live system for following UK mkts?

I am able to follow and check Dow through http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=$INDU&siteid=mktw

I think it was Wayne who gave me this link, thanks

But does anyone have a link for following UK Mkts? Wayne? Swingstar?


p.s. what the hell is that bear eating?


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## nizar (26 September 2006)

www.londonstockexchange.com


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## wayneL (26 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Hi guys,
> 
> Does anyone know of a live system for following UK mkts?
> 
> ...




Try this http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

You can get UK stock quotes via Yahoo as well Just type in the code followed by .L 

eg VOD.L

What else would a bear eat? (apart from Goldilocks) Prime USDA Grade A Bull


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## swingstar (26 September 2006)

Yeah, I use Yahoo for OS markets that I don't get data for, as well as:

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/index.html (premarket stuff) and
http://www.google.com/finance (only US, but lighter alternative to the others)


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 September 2006)

Thanks guys


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 September 2006)

US Dow new high!




Open: 11,670 
*
High: 11,713 * 

Low: 11,661 

*52wk High: 5/10/2006 11,709 * 

52wk Low: 10/13/2005 10,098 

Avg Volume: 228.25M


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## nizar (28 September 2006)

New high for the year 2006 yes
All-time high close was 11,722 in jan2000

We will probably break it this friday (in the US), end of quarter, funds will put some "window dressing"


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## nizar (17 October 2006)

> "A lot of people missed out on the recent rally, which is leading to a sort of emotional stampede which has nothing to do with fundamentals," according to Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.
> 
> *Metz said the Dow Industrials are set to break through the 12,000 mark, barring any major bad news. *




Thats quoted from MarketWatch TODAY
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={5FC4F24D-D4C9-4E98-83D8-BC4E145253A2}&siteid=

Wouldve been a great call if he had said this when the DOW was around 10,800 or even 11,000.

But the DOW is *NINETEEN POINTS * short of 12,000.

Gotta love "analysts" LOL


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## wayneL (17 October 2006)

Yep

Goldilocks is buying with her ears back  

Now, about those fundamentals.........


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## vishaldon (18 October 2006)

*US stock gains thanks IBM*

United States stock index gained today in the early hours of the trading as stock index futures gained on speculation report that consumer prices fell when compared to last month, this is an indication that inflation is under control. International Business Machines Corp. climbed in Germany as profit at the world's biggest computer-services company beat analysts' estimates. Intel Corp., the world's largest computer- chip maker, gained after profit topped some estimates.
Motorola Inc. fell after the mobile-phone maker's sales missed estimates


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## nizar (20 October 2006)

Does any1 here know the weightings for the DOW components ?
I dont think its equal between the 30 (32?) companies....

Thanks


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## wayneL (20 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Does any1 here know the weightings for the DOW components ?
> I dont think its equal between the 30 (32?) companies....
> 
> Thanks




http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showComponentWeights&rptsymbol=DJI&sitemapid=20


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## nizar (21 October 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showComponentWeights&rptsymbol=DJI&sitemapid=20




thanks


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## bvbfan (21 October 2006)

http://www.ft.com/home/asia

http://www.ft.com/markets/uk


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## Wysiwyg (9 August 2011)

Looking for a swing / nay plummet low and bounce here somewhere. 11100 broken with ease and maybe 11000 soon too. Catch the knife??? Noooooo.


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## Aussiejeff (9 August 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Looking for a swing / nay plummet low and bounce here somewhere. 11100 broken with ease and maybe 11000 soon too. Catch the knife??? Noooooo.




Smashed thru 11,000 down to 10,809. Maybe 10,000 soon too. How many knives do you want to catch? LOL

Remember one important fact.

This time, there is no fallback plan.

Only empty rhetoric.

Good luck with that....


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## Wysiwyg (9 August 2011)

Aussiejeff said:


> Smashed thru 11,000 down to 10,809. Maybe 10,000 soon too. How many knives do you want to catch? LOL



 Actually sold my shorts from 11460 way too early in hindsight (LOL) but experience shows covering rallies can go a long way and a covering/relief/bounce/dead cat rally will happen.


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## daytradeprofit (15 November 2016)

*Re: NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:*

Will The Old Economy, Become The New Hot Trend:
At the moment it looks the Dow Jones ındex wıll perform the best move
Since the days are gone, and I continued to accompany the move, I do not claim to be a prophet - the prophecy was given to fools, but after election night, after the previous election process - there is one clear conclusion, stemming from lookıng the charts and trading volumes
Markets want up - markets  rally is expected to continue.
In terms of support and resistance levels given the target
You can see the candles and cycles in the graph below - pattern represents buyers are willing to buy, every time when it comes to the bottom line, but at lower prices.
Support levels: Amendment to the 18,620 would not be surprising, as long as the index will be supported above the 18,340 points level trend is upwards, ıf the dow jones wıll break down 18,240-18,340 points again, I’ll analyze the situation again.


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## greggles (29 February 2020)

DJIA getting smashed again tonight. It crashed through 25,000 with relative ease and is now down around 1,050 points. We're definitely in bear market territory now.

Not a time to be trying to catch falling knives, that's for sure.


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## Smurf1976 (29 February 2020)

greggles said:


> DJIA getting smashed again tonight. It crashed through 25,000 with relative ease and is now down around 1,050 points. We're definitely in bear market territory now.



An issue I expect would be automated trading systems (institutions especially) which are oblivious to the existence of the corona virus and are simply seeing the price action in the market and dumping stock accordingly.

There's been mention in various thread quite a while ago that whenever a decent decline came, it would happen swiftly. That point would seem to have arrived.

We'll get a bounce though and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that next week. What comes next is the big question?


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## greggles (10 March 2020)

DJIA DOWN 1,884 POINTS (7.29%) AT THE OPEN! TRADING HALTED!


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## Smurf1976 (10 March 2020)

greggles said:


> DJIA DOWN 1,884 POINTS (7.29%) AT THE OPEN! TRADING HALTED!




So the DJIA is now down ~19% from the high on 12 February.

I've been reading plenty, listened to a couple of podcasts and so on and a point which various analysts have made in respect of the US markets is that most prior "shocks" have resulted in a 20 - 27% decline from the peak.

Anything's possible but given the sheer speed of the fall I think that's sounding rather optimistic now......


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## greggles (10 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> So the DJIA is now down ~19% from the high on 12 February.
> 
> I've been reading plenty, listened to a couple of podcasts and so on and a point which various analysts have made in respect of the US markets is that most prior "shocks" have resulted in a 20 - 27% decline from the peak.
> 
> Anything's possible but given the sheer speed of the fall I think that's sounding rather optimistic now......




I agree. Market has reopened and the DJIA is now down over 2,000 points. The scary thing is that I can't see confidence returning in the short term. I think the DJIA could be back at 20,000 in the next few weeks if the coronavirus situation gets worse.


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## Smurf1976 (10 March 2020)

greggles said:


> The scary thing is that I can't see confidence returning in the short term. I think the DJIA could be back at 20,000 in the next few weeks if the coronavirus situation gets worse.




Agreed although I wouldn't be surprised if a bounce of sorts starts from here. 

My thinking is that anyone who wants out in a hurry has probably just done so.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2020)

what you trade today may \not be the same thing tomorrow:

_The about to be splitting of Apple shares via a reverse four for one division has triggered a historic change in the Dow Jones average – oil giant* Exxon Mobil is out, as is drug group, Pfizer and defence manufacturer Raytheon Technologies.* Cloud-based customer relations management software group Salesforce replaces Exxon Mobil in something of a surprise, biotech drugmaker, Amgen replaces Pfizer and industrial group, Honeywell will replace Raytheon._

_The Apple split will have a dramatic impact on the ranking of the companies in the 30 stock Dow. Apple will fall from Number one to Number 17 because the Dow is a price-weighted index). The top three stocks will become UnitedHealth Group Inc., Home Depot, and Amgen in that order._

_The ousting of Exxon is a historic move as it has been a Dow member for 92 years. It joined in October 1928 (a year before the Great Crash), when it was called Standard Oil of New Jersey. For decades the company was one of the 10 most valuable publicly traded companies, and for six straight years—from 2006 through 2011—it was the most valuable company in terms of market value._

_S&P Dow Jones said the changes were “prompted” by Apple’s four for one split which happens after the close this Friday (Ie from trading next Monday) will reduce the index’s tech-sector weighting in the Dow, hence the rebalancing._

_“The announced changes help offset that reduction,” S&P Dow Jones said in a statement. “They also help diversify the index by removing overlap between companies of similar scope and adding new types of businesses that better reflect the American economy.”_

_Apple joined the Dow back in 2015 not long after a seven for one stock split._

_“The changes won’t disrupt the level of the index,” S&P Dow Jones said in a statement. “The divisor used to calculate the index from the components’ prices on their respective home exchanges will be changed prior to the opening on Aug. 31, 2020."_

_While that is true, American market analysts point out that there is another, very good reason, for Exxon Mobil to be punted – underperformance. Its shares traded for more than $US104 in June 2014, against $US41 today. Even taking dividends into account, it has underperformed the Dow since 2014 by 21%._

_The last venerable US company to be punted from the Dow was General Electric back in 2018. It has underperformed the Dow since then at an annual rate of 21% while the Dow has risen at an annual rate of 9%._

_Apple shares closed Tuesday at $US499.30 valuing it at $US2.15 trillion. It hit an all-time high of $US515.14 last Friday in trading. If the $US500 level holds, the theoretical value of the new shares post-split will be around $US125_

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/08/26/apple-stock-split-triggers-historic-dow-shake-up/


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