# First Aussie stock to hit $100?



## Ferret (12 February 2007)

Who do you think will be the first aussie stock to hit $100 ?

9 months ago RIO was looking pretty good to win this prize.  Since then it has stalled, but the big miners might just be coming into favour again.

PPT seems to be making slow and steady progress.  Its in a growth industry and should get a push from the markets current strength.

MBL has come from behind these two during the last 6 months.  It is the most growth oriented of these three and regularly comes up with a big deal to push the share price along.

My bet?  I think it will be MBL, but not until the middle of 2008.

What do others think?  Maybe there are some dark horses out there I haven't considered.

Ferret


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## sam76 (12 February 2007)

*Re: FIRST STOCK TO HIT $100*

my money's on VSG


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## BIG BWACULL (12 February 2007)

*Re: FIRST STOCK TO HIT $100*



			
				sam76 said:
			
		

> my money's on VSG



Only $99.987 to GO


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## reece55 (12 February 2007)

My money would have to be on MBL..... However....

CSL has had a very good run and could be a dark horse.

Bar a takeover, can't see RIO getting to that level.

Cheers


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## billhill (12 February 2007)

I second CSL


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## pacer (12 February 2007)

SLA.....for sure....ramp ramp....


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## nioka (12 February 2007)

BHP could easily do it. They may decide to use their huge profit in a share buy back if investing in themselves is better than expansion.So could any of the big banks.


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## mmmmining (12 February 2007)

GOLD by mid July...


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## Halba (12 February 2007)

HMM the contenders are

RIO($76)

CSL $70ish

MBL $83ish

PPT $79.20

My bet: It'll be PPT, as funds mngmt is becoming a dot com

RIO is far too cyclical

MBL's last update was poor, but i'd have it as #2

CSL got too far ahead of itself and high p/e


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## michael_selway (12 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> HMM the contenders are
> 
> RIO($76)
> 
> ...




what would you say if there was a stock market crash, and those above all halved?   

thx

MS


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## Realist (12 February 2007)

I'll say RIO.

It has the lowest PER and the lowest dividend yield of those that are close.

I still think it is undervalued.


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## CanOz (12 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> I'll say RIO.
> 
> It has the lowest PER and the lowest dividend yield of those that are close.
> 
> I still think it is undervalued.




Without jumping to the BHP thread Realist, how do you feel about thier current value?


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## Realist (12 February 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Without jumping to the BHP thread Realist, how do you feel about thier current value?




BHP has a PER of 10.7. And its revenue is forecast to grow 27% over the next year.

A mining downturn is already built into the price. A fair PER is 16 to 20. They're nearly half that.

If a mining downturn hits they'll obviously ride it out, and profit by buying up other companies.

I think it is undervalued slightly. It is a long term hold I think.

I know you like the look of the chart...


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## CanOz (12 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> BHP has a PER of 10.7. And its revenue is forecast to grow 27% over the next year.
> 
> A mining downturn is already built into the price. A fair PER is 16 to 20. They're nearly half that.
> 
> ...




So given BHPs diverse exposure to resources, why could it not gobble up RIO or Anglo as has been tipped and then become the $100 stock?

Incidentally i wouldn't hold them if it wasn't for Nick's advice, and that recent GAP on the chart is a bit too wide for my liking, but i continue to hold and grin.

Cheers,


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## chops_a_must (12 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> CSL got too far ahead of itself and high p/e



I would pick CSL (but)....

It's earning potential is massive. The Gardasil vaccine will earn them billions, and is being approved in more countries every few weeks. If its bird flu vaccine looks the goods, it could do anything...

but... if it doesn't, the chart is looking rather toppy...

They do make up the largest part of long term portfolio though. Stable earnings that aren't likely to move much in a downturn.


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## clowboy (12 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> what would you say if there was a stock market crash, and those above all halved?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS





How bout......

"Time to break out the margin loan"


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## michael_selway (12 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> BHP has a PER of 10.7. And its revenue is forecast to grow 27% over the next year.
> 
> A mining downturn is already built into the price. A fair PER is 16 to 20. They're nearly half that.
> 
> ...




Nomore growth left, so fwd terminal of PE 10 is about right

*BHP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 225.4 285.5 299.6 284.0 
DPS 48.4 53.0 56.6 60.5 *

*RIO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 689.3 774.5 765.0 697.7 
DPS 131.4 151.0 159.3 164.0 * 

thx

MS


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## >Apocalypto< (12 February 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> BHP could easily do it. They may decide to use their huge profit in a share buy back if investing in themselves is better than expansion.So could any of the big banks.




I do not agree sorry to say.


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## >Apocalypto< (12 February 2007)

From the way things are running,

If CSl keeps up the enthusiasm it could beat MBL to the prize.

But I am backing MBL

PPT  is another to watch as it jumps out of no where! like dec 06 what a surprise!

I have not seen the same buying enthusiasm for the miners since the may correction but it could all change


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## Realist (12 February 2007)

clowboy said:
			
		

> How bout......
> 
> "Time to break out the margin loan"





Agreed!!    :


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## Realist (12 February 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> So given BHPs diverse exposure to resources, why could it not gobble up RIO or Anglo as has been tipped and then become the $100 stock?




Now's no time for big takeovers. IMHO.

BHP is no doubt planning to be around for the next 100 years and more.

Wait till the eventual correction, if not crash, then buy up when companies are going cheap!!


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 February 2007)

In order

RIO
PPT
CSL
BHP
MBL


I don't try to predict but they are my guesses.



Garpal


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## noirua (12 February 2007)

Poseidon rose above $100 in 1970 and infact reached $280 on 5th February 1970.  So it's already been achieved.


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## nomore4s (12 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Poseidon rose above $100 in 1970 and infact reached $280 on 5th February 1970.  So it's already been achieved.




Noirua, who were they and what did they do and what happened to them?

Just out of curiosity


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Poseidon rose above $100 in 1970 and infact reached $280 on 5th February 1970.  So it's already been achieved.




A valid point Noirua.

Brings us back to reality and value, one of the reasons I put MBL low on my list. Too many hoorah henrys to make a company that will last.

Garpal


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## doctorj (13 February 2007)

Brief summary here.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (13 February 2007)

The movie was a bit of a dud as well.


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## Ferret (13 February 2007)

Some interesting comments here.  I have always thought MBL was a bit of a flash in the pan.  In fact, been thinking that since they were around $20 and so never bought any.  Not a smart decision in hindsight.

BHP hit $100 first? Never!  Great company but even if commodity prices went into orbit, RIO would get there way ahead.

CSL is one I haven't had on the radar for a while.  I'll keep it in mind when the next correction comes.

Ferret


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## imajica (13 February 2007)

CSL will hit $100 first for sure

not only do they have strong earnings  but they are laying the foundations for growth with an attempt to develop products for the treatment of leukaemia, arthritis and asthma

strong earnings and expected growth = share price appreciation


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