# USD/JPY



## Kauri

Looks to be at a very interesting stage.... may be making a WC-W3....
Cheers
...Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

By my count the Yen may be headed to 110 odd... missed the original chance to get on this earlier, instead going with a short on the EUR/JPY which is still struggling..  .. will be keeping an eye on this for an entry if it plays out to my count..
 Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Not sure yet if this is a minor 5th or if the 5th wave is going to subdivide... time will tell...
 Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

The cont is not the best, but at least it's going in the right direction... for the moment...
 Cheers
...........Kauri


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## wayneL

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> The cont is not the best, but at least it's going in the right direction... for the moment...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



Not good news for the SM if it continues.


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



wayneL said:


> Not good news for the SM if it continues.




  Yes...may be a sign of things to come... have a couple of speculative shorts on on the strength of a bit of fooling previously with time.._ holy hell Batman_..  
 
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Am looking closely for a possible short trade... as an old girlfriend used to say.. be patient and let it develop...
 Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> Am looking closely for a possible short trade... as an old girlfriend used to say.. be patient and let it develop...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 Helped myself to a quick 50 points odd... watching to see if it develops into a trend as opposed to a rumour blip before committing ..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## reece55

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> Helped myself to a quick 50 points odd... watching to see if it develops into a trend as opposed to a rumour blip before committing ..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Top trade Kauri, the move in the yen pairs tonight was quite dramatic across the board............ In an hour, the Euro/Yen lost about 100 pips, I am looking for a short on a longer time frame on that pair.... 

Getting back to the USD/JPY, looks like there was quite sustained selling at 115.90~ level, i'm thinking the pair could potentially test the 111 - 110 level in the coming months..... Ironic however, as the economic data coming out of Japan is less than rosy......

Cheers
Reece


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



reece55 said:


> Top trade Kauri, the move in the yen pairs tonight was quite dramatic across the board............ In an hour, the Euro/Yen lost about 100 pips, I am looking for a short on a longer time frame on that pair....
> 
> Getting back to the USD/JPY, looks like there was quite sustained selling at 115.90~ level, i'm thinking the pair could potentially test the 111 - 110 level in the coming months..... Ironic however, as the economic data coming out of Japan is less than rosy......
> 
> Cheers
> Reece



Hi Reece,
Yep...I'm looking at 111 area longer term... running with a short on the skippy at the moment..  
Cheers
..........Kauri



> Nov. 1. With the opening slide in the stock markets, the second wave of risk aversion sales has been seen on JPY crosses. The DJIA is now down 200 pts on the Citi fears and other market downgrades with USD/JPY triggering stops under 115.00/10 for a fall to 114.85/90. EUR/JPY has triggered the stops under 166.00 for a fall to 165.65 with more stops at 165.30 and 164.60 reported.


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## reece55

*Re: USDJPY*

Well, I thought 111 in the coming months, but I didn't expect to already be at the 112 level...

The USD/JPY pair is now at a critical level, if 112 were not to hold (and this is now the second time since Aug we have had a significant test) it will be a rapid move down to 108......

Personally, I highly doubt the Japanese will allow the pair to get much lower - their economy is still in deflation mode and they know the number one important element is to continue to maintain a low exchange rate to ensure their exports remain attractive to their number one consumer - the US...

Cheers


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## reece55

*Re: USDJPY*



reece55 said:


> Well, I thought 111 in the coming months, but I didn't expect to already be at the 112 level...
> 
> The USD/JPY pair is now at a critical level, if 112 were not to hold (and this is now the second time since Aug we have had a significant test) it will be a rapid move down to 108......
> 
> Personally, I highly doubt the Japanese will allow the pair to get much lower - their economy is still in deflation mode and they know the number one important element is to continue to maintain a low exchange rate to ensure their exports remain attractive to their number one consumer - the US...
> 
> Cheers




Well, so much for my prediction - 112 was jut defiantly broken and down we go pips in less than an hour....... I will be waiting for a rally back up to 112 and then there is a fairly easy short op to test the 108 area - however, as with most of the USD pairs, it is oversold...

Cheers


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Hi Reece,
           Seems the carry trade is unravelling again... AUDUSD-NZDUSD- and most JPY crosses are sinking tonight...  
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Now this one has me baffled... but potentially it doesn't sound good..  
Cheers
.........Kauri



> November 9. Lots of talk about heavy coupon payments coming up soon, and an arcane structure designed for the Japanese market some time ago called PRCDs, Power Reverse Dual Currency notes, the coupon and return linked to performance of USD/JPY; with payment due in Yen (or currency of contract/ choice) based off FX performance. According to the gurus that monitor these types of structured products the "magic" number is 110.00, and we are getting uncomfortably close to there. According to sources the volume of these exposures are roughly 20% less than they were four years ago when they last caused a panic, but they are forcing up L/T vol levels significantly.
> US equity markets still remain wobbly and *traders are very, very nervous that the rout will turn into a debacle in USD/JPY if 110.00 cedes.* Spot was last 110.95/98, the low 110.51, with talk of barrier defence


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

110 just might be on the cards...  
Cheers
...........Kauri




> November 9. USD/JPY has slipped back down over the past half hour from 111.10 to 110.85 as US equities come under the gun again. There was talk earlier that a ubiquitous, large, semi-official Japanese governmental body was buying big amounts around 110.60/70, which has scared off some of the sellers, and techies note that spot is ranging between the top of the Bollinger band lower limits, and the bottom of the normal distribution channel (111.15 currently) throughout today's session; however the lower Bolly band zone has slipped down to 109.55/110.35 from 109.85/110.60 earlier, which means effectively that it should be easier for USD/JPY to penetrate 110.50 on the next attempt. An option barrier is slated to be there and was actively defended this AM.
> Carry trade unwind is the name of the game, and according to senior traders every time stocks top out the cross selling intensifies.


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Closed out short on the Yen... 110 seems to be very well defended... a bounce and good break of 110 may lure me back in??? (the 4th waves in both the 4Hourly and Weekly are a bit worriesome proportion-wise to the 2nd waves..    )
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Gone short on break of strong line at 110... may now be strong resistance??
Cheers
.......Kauri


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Closed out short for 50 pip odd... not convinced that there is a lot of selling enthusiasm... I think.. or thought..
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I think the Yen is starting to look overbought , that 108 area feels so ...... unnatural  ........

I've heard all the 102 talk ............ 105 I think I could swallow , but I think 110 is the target for me now .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Well , the shock of seeing the Yen really rise in strength , has had me fixated ...... until I checked in on my Swissie play , took a small position and it was more tongue in cheek than thoughtful speculation . My 109.300 got hit .... more like rolled straight over as it tapped on 108.'s doors .

Just stunned , USA , had better make way for a new wave of Europeans


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Is it starting to move lower again , look like it tried to push up into the 107's with 108.1's , don't know whether to call that a retest yet , US comes on board tonight , they have tended to be bullish ........ but my eyes are out for 108.9 at present , after the US session we'll see if 109 is on the cards or a retest of 107 's


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

second time round now looking for 108 bounce , to get bearish on her .


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Too many rumours floating around currently for mine... Barclays better than *expected* report... German IFO weaker than expected... and more... interested observer me...   
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## buggalug

*Re: USDJPY*

I've gone long, but tight stop in case wave 5 extends, here's my count


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

moi aussi @ 108 

funny though because I have 109.17 for the Yen and 0.9017 for Skippy 

okay , I know they both can't be right ................ surely


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Got this (---) close to stop


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Most of the way I see this pair says a bottom should be close... mind you I said the same thing about the Loonie at around the 1.05 mark...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I think we've seen a double hammer swing about , my lines point to 109.12 and 109.17 or 18 bit blurry there  scary stuff so I thought why not , been blabbing on about it all week


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

........... and beige book tomorrow


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

That first spurt and retreat got my goat up when it took out my trailer after I moved it . Couldn't figure it out the signal was strong with price well above my cloud and it went south ...... 

Now after a nice ride the price is again well above my cloud and it's trying to retreat again ........... go figure .

I didn't see a crossroad , so blow it all , I'm going through this stop sign , the price can get swallowed by the cloud then I'm topping up .

Any luck and it will be around 108.55 . for another bounce back .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

that drop went to 45's on me , cloud more like fog , but it made it to my marker ........ suffice for round # 1

retreated with a bounce ...... thinking about that .

EUR/JPY looks to be chasing a sniff at 159's , but I think the Yen will run away a little more today from the greenback , for another squizzy at the 109 area soon . The 108.8/9 area should be interesting .


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Nasty rumours about possible trouble for an IMM player in currency futures, particularly in but not limited to, the Euro futures...  at last are starting to see the light of day... 
 and hey the Dax looks like it could win the Olympic hammer-throw... 
 and other European exchanges look a touch, well, delicate I suppose... 
 and Russia is also selling Euro heavily....

 Ah, gotta love these rumours   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Made it back into the 109's again lower low ........ have my attention on an area a bit away @ 109.987 , need binoculars from here , but a break of that might pull you in for a 100 or so pips hey Kauri  

More throttle please captain  .............


I think we can confirm that double hammer reversal now  .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

just made it though the cloud expecting turbulence on the bounce back @ 108.95 feet  

please keep your trays up .......

anyone get the bottom on that run @ 108.798 , I hit the rockets early  @ 108.84's and boosters @ 108.91 retreat .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

flatline @ 109.06

now crossing for 109.3


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

watching for another flatline around 109.06 , would'nt hesitate a reversal , but so far okay for second attempt at least we have resistance crosshaired , shoot or run stuff , both work


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: USDJPY*

this is off topic but i think we could see a nice bounce on the euro later tonight.

i will most likely be in bed though! ithatheekret you catch any short action on the plunge?


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

if it is above the cloud it's bullish still to me I'll follow in but usually pull the trigger on the open pos. or part of the trades within .

If I'm at the platform and can read the candles against the MA in the Ichimoku Kinko settings I put in .

turbulence @ 109.196


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I don't think about where it's going , but what it's doing to scoop opportunity if possible ...... have been known to snore at my desk too 

Very risky on this swap usually , but overbought to b*ggery .

I'd be checking a few figures some of the companies put out too , the strong Yen hurt .

I use the Asian indicators , noticed it on a screen once and was sold on em the moment I could see crosses , learnt the rest and still am as each market changes . Matching them with candles or Heikin Ashi works fine spotted the cross approach @ last turbulence . I would rather give up the three pips usually and buy back in if I have to...... my own type of wealth protection in a way .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I haven't touched that drop bounce yet from 109.20ish to 109.07 , should but s.h's do or dare on it , no cross but good build up , so I wait .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

109.137 in a cloud too with a jumbo coming back at me.


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

109.334 chute . and float around waiting no rev yet . following trend above cloud for now .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

little bit of flatline activity @ my chute area 109.334ish mom. pick up immed. at 109.4 , I'm game .............. trigger ready though .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

waiting for shock and awe , feels like ones coming , grab a helmet .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

109.55 is a break or sell entry at a few brokerages expect flatline area

don't hesistate if your in


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

and that was 109.9 don't need the binoculars now it's in my face , retreat to109.8 and were off again I hope ............. 109.98 needs to be whipped .

We are well clear of the cloud cover , but engines do fail  so have a chute ready j.i.c.


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

and that was 109.9 don't need the binoculars now it's in my face , retreat to109.8 and were off again I hope ............. 109.98 needs to be whipped .

We are well clear of the cloud cover , but engines do fail  so have a chute ready j.i.c. , 

nope it's 110 here we come , glass door I bet .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

back @ 109.8 again in my cloud . it will do if it keeps up flatlining above the cloud for a spurt as we have crossed again , looking for build up . Which if get's through the next cross , will be brown champagne time or even if it doesn't 

noted the Dow futures ..... lots of Yen going there maybe ..........


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

no I wasn't ...... have to have a unit amount enter first . , pure rse saved my bacon on an early entry again . 109.7 for a flatline risk .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

check the Dow futures they're off again


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Late start today , we have to see out the high from last night @110.48 , the 55 area will do not far off it now either , a break of that area will be a bit of work in the making , info says there are a few stops set @ 110.50 , so 110.80 and heavenly 111.  will too , but the trend has been broken and reshaped in the recent reversal . From here above a nice cloud is an Ichi line 111.60 , that's the special place , we want to see and hopefully soon .

The Nikkei I see ,  is romping along , that might keep her on a tight reign


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## buggalug

*Re: USDJPY*

I'm looking to get out around 111, thats around a 38.2% retracement of the move down on the daily and a logical place for my wave c of Y to complete.


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

That's what I'm looking for too Buggalug , although , the area around 110.40-60 I will watch for momentum . If 110.50 withers it becomes a sell in my book . It looks like we are going to range well until Christmas on the cross , so anything between the last low area and say 111.80 are on the cards , with a touch of overdone eachway .

I'm long right now , but the above mentioned area will be under the button .


P.S.. above cloud cover , nice bullish start , let's see if we can finish well .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

rev. set up @ 110. ish by the looks , 1st attempt @ 110.5/6 flopped .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

trying real hard and just b4 a crossing .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

fight @ just under 110.20  , could turn into a brawl ........


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## buggalug

*Re: USDJPY*



buggalug said:


> I'm looking to get out around 111, thats around a 38.2% retracement of the move down on the daily and a logical place for my wave c of Y to complete.




I'm out at 110.75, going to watch for a while


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

todays effort has given it a twin peaks looks DT , 110.55 on 20th , looking for retreat spot actually now low 110.5s nearly 40's again for a bounce .......


fingers crossed


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

hmmm ....110.496 and 495 ........  can't close my eyes either 

leap of f..f..fa, nope best not say it .


fritz, it actually bounced off that .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> hmmm ....110.496 and 495 ........  can't close my eyes either
> 
> leap of f..f..fa, nope best not say it .
> 
> 
> fritz, it actually bounced off that .





See , there is a God .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

My ichi looks like it wants to cross , hopefully taking this price through the cloud starting @ 110.60


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Heavy selling pressure @ 110.68/70


probably a bank , still in ........ they can whoopsie too ........ ( Ockhams Razor )


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

110.654 and just above cloud ......... hmmm ... mooo


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

110.666


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Hi thatheekret
Are you long, short, or indifferent??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Byn the way, a US investment bank has been actively selling..


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

stage left


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

until it get's past money bags @ 110.68/70

was long want to see 110.720 for a couple of seconds , chit one will do .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

limit order 110.721.......  stop 110.687 ......... how's that look ?

Then I can make like a capitalist elsewhere .


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

I'm on a slightly longer time-frame... can possibly see a small top W5?? soon, a couple of hours or so maybe??? If it pans out and the red hasn't gotten to me too much I will re-assess then.. I think..
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

This cross has been making targets then retreating , set and forget on position would be okay , but , it's the opps missed that I don't like . If I'm not sleeping then I should be at the coal face manning the pick .

I've watched every glass door get bounced off and then usually crashed through or ran away from after a few runs this week . Just watching this crosses tick chart will earn you sealegs .

The Swissie , I was so amazed at the push into the 109's , that I just stared at it , didn't even touch the keyboard .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Well , it's never boring around the Yen , I bet Bed and Breakfast Inc is glad the Yen is trying to reverse .

I'm in at limit , but moved the stops


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> This cross has been making targets then retreating , set and forget on position would be okay , but , it's the opps missed that I don't like . If I'm not sleeping then I should be at the coal face manning the pick .
> 
> I've watched every glass door get bounced off and then usually crashed through or ran away from after a few runs this week . Just watching this crosses tick chart will earn you sealegs .
> 
> The Swissie , I was so amazed at the push into the 109's , that I just stared at it , didn't even touch the keyboard .




A large option barrier at 111 is being defended... and acting as a bit of a magnet... 
Cheers
........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

option barrier huh , 

magnet sounds good , especially if it's a bank , brings out the other banks .....

I keep thinking about all those corporate loans @ 120+


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

here piggy piggy ........


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Cwarr .... all the way to 110.64's .

I wonder how much that cost 'em .

missed me by this ( ----------------------- ) much Wolfgang


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

There goes 111 , noted that option you mentioned Kauri . Spotted the butterfly option flashcard , I think it's the same as a sandwich option .

4 option spread 2 long , 2 short .

Fancy gaming one of those sophisticated vehicles in a volatile market , either very brave or very ...........

I hope they haven't just seen all 4 puts prices in the last innings , they've been at the crease for awhile now . If they have , I wouldn't bother showing up for work Monday .


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> I'm on a slightly longer time-frame... can possibly see a small top W5?? soon, a couple of hours or so maybe??? If it pans out and the red hasn't gotten to me too much I will re-assess then.. I think..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Have the indication that a correction is possibly happening... but haven't as yet got a good spot to get on... soon ... maybe.. I think..
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Looks like there are a pile of stops to get through  110.15ish , yesterdays 110.5's hmmm little schwing , but short looks the play and I'm currently long , but take no heed of that .......... , because I was short @ 110.10 too 

then again , if we can look in at 110.5s maybe 60s , I would be happy to short a schwing 

don't really know if the stops have been hit yet , bit spongey , 3rd attempt , still long off the bounce .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

..............there's a truck trying to ram its way through the 110.5's , can't see the wall , expecting a bang ......... , hope they've got roobars


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

just under 110.7 back to 110.6 fence , my eye is on the 111.7's  pozzie we hit 2nd week in Nov. But we have a fence @ 110.6....... eyes on Europe .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

 brawl


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> just under 110.7 back to 110.6 fence , my eye is on the 111.7's pozzie we hit 2nd week in Nov. But we have a fence @ 110.6....... eyes on Europe .



Hi ithatheekret
Nice trade so far... I've just taken the short side... so no doubt she'll keep rising like my Mums sponge cake..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> Hi ithatheekret
> Nice trade so far... I've just taken the short side... so no doubt she'll keep rising like my Mums sponge cake..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Snap Kauri   
looking for 110.25's / ish for an exit reversal


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

dipped a toe in @ 110.294 long with brkage slippage


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

feet are wet now overider entry 110.294


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

that 110.43 was above my cloud and just crossed , I'm entering for a bounce.


110.33 eyes closed


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

It looks to be lining up for a crossing at 110.237 , 1st calculations would of had it at 110.257 . hmm I topped up @ 110.191 /193 . Nearly hesitated too , then stopped the emotion qrap .


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## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> It looks to be lining up for a crossing at 110.237 , 1st calculations would of had it at 110.257 . hmm I topped up @ 110.191 /193 . Nearly hesitated too , then stopped the emotion qrap .




Hi ithatheekret,
 I'm in short for the long-haul in the medium term,  
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

medium term .......... that's about an hour


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I had some whiz kids from Adelaide Uni do some valuations on the Yen based against $70 oil and they came up with 136.80


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

that 110.5/6 area was the short spot 


so far my calcs. only have it as 80% , 90's would have sold me , we're going back there methinks .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

should explain that .... 90% odd would of seen a retrace to 110.10 challenge actually @ 110.08 by me . Will we see it , if so 109.4's are always on the cards . Challnge to that last strength run , i think it would be met with fierce selling personally , but that's the ups and downs hey ....... they're all pips and no CEO's or boards etc to play with your head . the chart says it all , if things change you see it straight away .


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## wayneL

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> they're all pips and *no CEO's or boards etc to play with your head* . the chart says it all , if things change you see it straight away .



Just Central Banks... ever seen a fair dinkum gu'mint intervention?


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*



wayneL said:


> Just Central Banks... ever seen a fair dinkum gu'mint intervention?




Yup  and some fair dinkum stuff ups too .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

nice candles started @ 110.279 hey Wayne


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

110.6's attempt again , will resistance give this time or do we run back down the hill ........ bring up the truck


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

110.6 fence looks like a crossing above cloud @ 110.602ish coming up 

the night could get interesting .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

added to my last long pozzie , looking for 110.66 and a 6 for good measure for a breakout from current resistance .


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## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I just took another bite of the apple at the return to that 110.665/6/7 area and got an instant pay off on the dip buy . But that's stopped me in my tracks as if it continues the cross will be delayed and the lines will run para . or we will cross and rise on an opposite crossing .......... all above cloud too .

I don't know it must be the beef jerky   mooooo

yep opp cross , soon to cross again by the looks for a positive crossing .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Someone wake Buggalugs and T.I. up , I can see light coming from 111's windows , we just have to mug the 110.8 resistance . Positive crossing fingers crossed . If no up tick ( 110.7 ) lines will opp . cross again .........


----------



## buggalug

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> Someone wake Buggalugs and T.I. up , I can see light coming from 111's windows , we just have to mug the 110.8 resistance . Positive crossing fingers crossed . If no up tick ( 110.7 ) lines will opp . cross again .........




Sorry haven't had a chance to check in, but I am long from 109.7, looking to get out around 111.35. I think we might see 113s in the next few weeks!


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

heya Bugs ,

Like what your saying cobber , just gamed a long at 110.95+ , may have hit the wickets if you hadn't popped in , made me check on it again , to busy cracking up in some of the threads .

Lot of turbulence around all the 1's , smells of protectionism , but it's cracked all the codes so far in its run .

The ranging has caused quite a flurry of activity across the other JPY crosses .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Just had a 110.921 pinger hit , got one under that too .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

next one is @ 110.899 if it gets there I'll have a full load , 11 pips under that is a stop


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Closing in on my stop .......  :

might get a dented fender , as I hear background chat on CNBC going on about USD strength ......... cough cough cough


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Strewth , just as I was about to wake Paddy to see the crash ........

the vehicle finds the right gear ........


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I pulled all of them out after profit and expected stall rev. even if neglb. . Resetting at systematic buyins . hard to set the lims and stops on each entery quick enough . Getting ready for first pounce , p'f off wasn't quick enough to catch the rev pips


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

PS.. if it hit 110.78 , to me that's all bets off till the Chrissie week .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

That 111 barrier is being protected by Yen related sales in Japan from what I've gathered . So 111 / 111.3 and 5 are swing points for my pinger .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

If that 110.78 line is attacked an pushed through again 110.55 could be on the cards if strong suport doesn't come in .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I've spent a couple of hours scalping 10/20and 30 odd pips , very thin trading and there's someone who needs to be there defending , all might change in the US session ( expecting a bit of a sell off actually ) , but it's hard work so far .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Well after numbing my fingers and trashing the keyboard the swings to pos have yielded 111.35 and change ........


Whilst i know there is a call for a sell if fails @ 111.30 the bobbing around there for a tad will do , in fact I may look for a dip spot to add and see if we can muscle past res. to 111.75s with an eye on whipping 112.05 eventually in the coming moves ahead .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

111.097 long again


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

and got stopped out seconds later


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I ended up in at 111.121/3 for the run , did a set and forget too , first sign post has been sideswiped , currently bouncing around it ..... could be shock  a few options have been attacked along the way , protection of position seems futile in the market at present though , they seem to be throwing money in at the defence of their positions . 

so 111.35 has been slapped , next target areas for me are  111.5 /111.75 & 112.05 . lets see how much get's thrown into the ring on these pushes .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Placed a new set of longs starting at the 111.32 stoush line , with a very tight stop , have a pinger waiting @ 111.311 , I don't think it will get hit , if it does it will need a nice spurt as its a largish pozzie .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Yep everytime I do that it gets attacked ........ but what I have in my mind is that if 111.75/6/7 is hit and pushed through , it would see the inverted H&S sideswiped ......... so much so I am setting up a box entry @ the bashing of the last poz. 

Fingers crossed .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

All set , noting on 1min chrt that 111.34 decline start to 11.18s is starting to form a nice cuppa .............. missus is out so here goes the farm


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> All set , noting on 1min chrt that 111.34 decline start to 11.18s is starting to form a nice cuppa .............. missus is out so here goes the farm




 I hear there may be a mid sized vanilla at 111. going off at 10 NY time??  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

111.762 for the first run , lost count of the pips  twenty e/w from the second bounce , the missus is dancing , so it must be good ..............


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> I hear there may be a mid sized vanilla at 111. going off at 10 NY time??
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Thanks for the heads up Kauri , should see a good hour of schwing .  

Expiring I hope


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Hmmm , a plan has popped up .

Vanilla @ 10 , will set some pingers around 111 even prob 05s and 8s see if we can go for a bounce off the Yorkers .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Engines are revved up tonight out there .......

a brawl keeps spilling onto the sidewalk anything near 111.78 gets a repel boarders hit .


someones serious about a position .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I got two pips (111.76) off the brawl 78 line , that's gin and tonic stuff :


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> I got two pips (111.76) off the brawl 78 line , that's gin and tonic stuff :




112 for a drop of Glenfiddich...  

a large 112.00 strike will roll off at the Tokyo cut tomorrow (Tuesday, 3pm local time). The 112.00 level also holds exotic exposure. 
  a 111.90 strike for a March 20 expiry date traded in an estimated $1.2bn earlier today. On Friday, a 2-mth 114.00 USD call traded at 9.4 pct in an estimated $500mn. That 114.00 USD call will expire on February 7, alongside a $900mn 114.40 strike. USD/JPY last traded at 114.00/40 on November 7. 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Yeah it's looking good the band set I just scored was actually 111.759 but all the limits went at once ......   blink and miss stuff .

I can smell the petrol fumes already . All revved up now , somethings a stirrin'


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

111.80 has sell if fails lingering on it in a call out there .


----------



## buggalug

*Re: USDJPY*

Looking for a short around 112


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

The 112.05 area will see a lot of interest if it goes a touch past it , but I know there's a lot of stops around 112 and just above that @ 112.2/4 .

My last big struggle around this area on this cross was 111.90 , might pop it's ugly head up again .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I've had a 747 early to move over ( done ) and two in the 69/68 still in for a spin and a schwing if need but they were rev pick ups ........ the second round caught me by surprise and I overshot the mark in my order . So long it is twice thanks to my error .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

The create order <%^*&*(%g box and the order box should get it together from a brokerage . 

have a profit on it but that error could have been saved with a little more concentration on order boxes .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> The create order <%^*&*(%g box and the order box should get it together from a brokerage .
> 
> have a profit on it but that error could have been saved with a little more concentration on order boxes .



 Same old same old same....
Cheers
.......kauri


> USD/JPY has been under steady selling pressure this morning, weighed down by bearish USD sentiment as well as the offers ahead of 112.00. But, the latest leg lower, a drop to 111.50 support has been fuelled by news that there is a trading halt on bond insurer MBIA. Concerns that MBIA may need a liquidity injection were fuelled by comments from Moody"s last week.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

the 111.776 and 78 exits have not been put into reverse , just closed , median fence sitting now with entries @ 111.497 and 4 , will be watching thses intently .


----------



## wayneL

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> the 111.776 and 78 exits have not been put into reverse , just closed , median fence sitting now with entries @ 111.497 and 4 , will be watching thses intently .



The occasional chart will let us all know what you are up to here. Once in a while would be great.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Sorry Wayne I am hopeless at it , you'll note my request in the EUR/JPY thread . I have never taken the time to learn to be honest . Most of my charts are Java applications set up for streaming . This Sunday I will make a determined effort in an attempt to master it okay ........


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Having noted your mantra Wayne . 

I pose a question , that is not meant to offend .

Looking at credit from the GDP basis , if it takes 1.2 units of credit to make one unit of dollars , is credit still the ultimate fundamental ?


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

111.90 assault under way , if we can supress the resistance , we can flank 'em .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

there ya go 112.05 everyone happified now .

now I have to recalculate a chart ..... all this for money , it's a hard life .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Hmm , I can just strain my eyes and see , the binos might have to come out later ........ breaking the 15/20 res has 112.548


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Looks like the Yen is going parabolic .


----------



## wayneL

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> Hmm , I can just strain my eyes and see , the binos might have to come out later ........ breaking the 15/20 res has 112.548



WTF is a bino and how does one trade them?


ithatheekret said:


> Looks like the Yen is going parabolic .



I must be looking at a different Yen because notwithstanding that I trade futs and not XXXX, I don't see any parabolas.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

It was using a pun ...... you know punning .

perhaps not ........


I was jokingly referring to spiritual a meaning of sorts in the Yen actions , as its actions had gone against most calls and projections in the market . As it did not transcend to the texted rules they had spruiked .


----------



## wayneL

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> It was using a pun ...... you know punning .
> 
> perhaps not ........
> 
> 
> I was jokingly referring to spiritual a meaning of sorts in the Yen actions , as its actions had gone against most calls and projections in the market . As it did not transcend to the texted rules they had spruiked .



Pun? Perhaps hyperbole. 

Who are "they", and what's a bino?


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

 bino's are the binoculars you needed to see the projected test area all the FX strategists had pencilled in .

A better word would have been paraholic after its actions .


----------



## wayneL

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> bino's are the binoculars you needed to see the projected test area all the FX strategists had pencilled in .
> 
> A better word would have been paraholic after its actions .




Ah! I see now. So one with a longer term view is a binoholic, or a teleholic?


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

   well it wasn't a teleological night for them .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Onya Wayne , those little word plays have just had me remember another one from eons ago , when I was ejumacated .

Deontological ........ something J.H. lacked .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Just looking at the movements in the cross as Uncle Ben is being labelled the Grinch that stole Christmas .

The implied volatility on the cross has notched itself into a 13.32 % rise for the options that expire this week .

Has the crystal ball spoken and the swing in the cross come about ?


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I've had a 111.377 sell that's just about going to hit a limit area above 111.08
no it's gone , but I can't figure what this cross wants to do .

I might sit back and wait for a 110 area to flick a switch .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

might draw it in??/
Cheers
.........Kauri





> December 12. A good size USD/JPY Vanilla Option expiry in the wings for today"s 10am New York Cut.  USD 300mln @ 111.50.  Spot has reached a 111.37 high so far today and 111.50 is well inside yesterday"s range, so this level could well draw the market as delta hedging confines toward expiry.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

and...

Market ran in to selling interest ahead of 111.40 on the early London run higher, and has drifted back to 111.00 since.  A far East name seen buying at the figure, which has sent the pair back to 111.20. Dow Futures also playing their part, with early gains aiding support in USD/JPY. On the other side - a leading US bank has allegedly put out a sell recommendation this morning, although no details to the actual level on this as yet.  However, topside potential could well be limited as a result.


Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Hi mate , I went long just momentarily ago 111.041 and another under that slightly , haven't checked if it's in yet other cpu doing something for me .

Got me buggared what it wanted to do before , and I feel like a right twit , I only jerried to what Wayne was going on about , he was talking about a technical term , I was being academic  , forgot all about the fancy names still refer to Butterfly options as Sandwhich options .

My apologies Wayne , you can give me stick now cobber  , that slip earned it .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

moved one trade off @ 112.423 ( needed the margin ) have one more waiting for exit .

nope 112.30 gone


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Okay prediction number two , there have been others but they were printed elsewhere and you made need to get them from a nice chap called Austin .

Some may remember , a group of uni whizzes , I managed to conform to my wishes , on a calculation on the Yen versus the oil price and a few other factors I had projected to them . 

They came up with 136 .  

But , although it cost me copius amounts of brown champagne , they did get close to my projection .

So here it goes .......

132.666 - 138.888 on the stronger end and a maximum of 140.588 at the weaker end . How long it takes to get there ........ pass .

PS... The moment it does I'm entering Babcock and Brown bigtime , that is not investment advice , Im not licenced .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

That 113.5/6 area has been pushed at a couple of times already , looks like it stalled or was repelled , haven't made my mind up which yet , but it is the top of the Ichi . 
I don't know whether its going to get to the 113.85 area today or not , the above mentioned area will be the decider there , but I thought the 61.8 ret. would have seen some action around 113.85ish , because I have a line pointing through the 100 MA . 

Printed out a few charts , there all behind me on the floor !

I have the top Bollinger band area around high 113.9's -114.01ish .

I have seen repatriation of funds many times before , but this is a wild year , a few snowboarders that caught some air ................


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

The recovery in the Nikkei to positive territory looks to be to blame with JPY crosses pulling USD/JPY higher. The Nikkei is currently indicated at 15,286.95, up 37.16 points on the day. It was down over 200 points earlier at 15,004.41. Resistance above is seen from the 113.40-50 level, 113.48-49 highs from overnight. Some stops are eyed above 113.50, mostly concentrated in the 113.60-65 area, just above 113.55 where the top of the Ichimoku cloud comes in. Next resistance topside is seen at 113.85 or so, 61.8% Fibo retracement of the move down from 117.95 to 107.20 seen between October 15 to November 27. offers are likely ahead of this level and 114.00 with stops above both.
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I went long at the 113.14 area and will be watching the dip coming up  

I'm not scared , I've got whiskey


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> I went long at the 113.14 area and will be watching the dip coming up
> 
> I'm not scared , I've got whiskey




 I'm just in the kitchen turning a cheep bottle of whiskey into Baileys... goes further.. with me anyways.  
Cheers
.........Kauri



> USD/JPY offers ahead of 113.40-55 resistance. Stops above, especially at 113.60-65, light offers trail up from 113.80 to 114.00. Stops above 114.00. Bids ahead of 112.70, trail lower. Stops mixed in below this level and 112.50. Mostly bids thereafter down to  109


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

113.24/5 looks like a nice swing area to reverse plays from , but that means I'd have to put the glass down for over a minute each time ..........

school holidays , I doubt that .........

But , I don't know if it's me or the whiskey but the band range looks like it was tightening and that can't be good for anything except eachways 

Knocked one off at 113.24's , if it continues to stall there I may be tempted to sell the Yen . Such an oxymoron


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Gee , that worked , there is some schwing in it .


That should start a brawl on it soon .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

USD/JPY vanilla expiries in the vicinity for today"s 10am New York cut, which could affect spot action as option players delta hedge.  fair size strikes at 112.50, 113.00, 113.25 and 113.75.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

113.5 looks to be failing already .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

The brainiacs were here , drained the rest of the whiskey , said something about 113.28 area . Mentioned somthing about anything above 113.49 is fair game until Jan. something about the trade weighted index and the Japanese surplus with China .


----------



## soso

*Re: USDJPY*

Today (Dec 19) we have a timepoint. I think USDJPY is about to blow down.


----------



## caribean

*Re: USDJPY*

Well picked mate...


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Anything close to 140's is hammered , the ceiling looks like it just above 113.28ish , the downside certainly looks set for a go into 111's again , probably lower on some heavy overshooting . I haven't figured out the readings I'm getting yet , because they point to 112.80ish , then the next says 112.50/45 with resistance to strength . But , I have another line that points at the 10 MA @112./111.90 ish , if that area breaks and strengthens , the binos come out to get a glimpse of 110's , looks like 110.90 , 110.75 , 110.5 , with possibility of 110.30/25's .

Just thinking aloud .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Have you noticed the range in the cross Kauri ?

Those young brainiacs , I might go get a couple more bottles of whiskey  

One lad  sits there and calculates algos in his head . It's embarrassing .............


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> Have you noticed the range in the cross Kauri ?
> 
> Those young brainiacs , I might go get a couple more bottles of whiskey
> 
> One lad sits there and calculates algos in his head . It's embarrassing .............



Nice little bit of range trading available over the past couple of days but for me I am looking at the larger picture(which is stalled??) to get an idea of larger trend direction before I rejoin the fray..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Getting interesting again , most of the go home money has left  , if someone says the carry trade is finished again , they'd better look at the Swissie and Yen charts . The few days of madness , were wonderful schwing stuff , Yen finished off on a 114.10 ish after moving a little higher . Monday should be a good indicator for some plays across the swap , last run at the boards for the year before respite . 
I'll be using the Emperors birthday to screen his charts .

Happy birthday to His Imperial Highness and all that .............


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

How do you turn and MDI file into a format allowed by this site to upload ?


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Been going long , would like to see 114.20 break where stop buys would be lined up again .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Higher targets this run for a long position , Babcock and Brown may like this run if it gets to play itself out .

116-119


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Getting a few preliminary alarums suggesting she may be on the move into a possible Wc, but not the best trading set-up by my plan so I'll be watching.... for now.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## IFocus

*Re: USDJPY*

Similar to AUS/JPY


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Don't forget Eurogal she's doing a Mexican wave .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Ahem ...... Hola


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Have this fella tracking down... but am waiting for the data before committing.. Ithunk
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I think your right with Skip , looks like another line of riot sheilds protecting .

Let the budgies loose mate they'll eat butterflys . I can only wait for a competitor to come over the top or my stop will get hit . 8889 and I'm off the water there .

Yen higher lows with Yen police in the background .............. okay , but my hands on the eject button for the whole ride .

106.6/59


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I'm set your driving , don't hit any roos mate .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> I think your right with Skip , looks like another line of riot sheilds protecting .
> 
> Let the budgies loose mate they'll eat butterflys .
> 106.6/59




Forget the budgies.. just had a videolink up with Uncle Ben and the FOMC about the rate decision... here's a clip of them deep into thier meeting... 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

My obvious reaction .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

bring back greenspan.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I used to think Uncle Al was the bees knees , then he became the Fed Chairman , it tarnished a brilliant career . Bring on Poole , but not in Texas .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

test


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Dejavu everywhere ..........


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Sorry wrong pictures need magnifying glass to see that .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Yen brawl .........


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Hold one for luck ...... might need it , I say 108 it says get stuffed .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

I got 107.90 that will do . 108's next week


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

That poz that was left I thought had been stopped out , it made the 108.20 limit . Didn't have to wait for next week after all . I thought I'd be waiting for awhile on it , only used a dreg of a play ( lowest entry ) .

Now I've got a signal for a 108.05 retest , really low volumes though .

Equities are pounding the pavements for me , very happified today .


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Time to pull out all the theories , Yen /Dow up/down , down/up  , reserve currency status , economic leanings and forward growth , revision to the next BoJ meeting , same old same old , what can they do next .... give it away .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

been short the Yen for a whiles now...  on the 1 min charts anyways... the 10450 barrier fell... now targetting a strike at 104 which has around $8mill payoff.. allegedly ...  may put up a bit of a fight... more barriers lined up just under.. but that is for later... I hopes... if she keeps dropping then Nippon exporters will cop more pressure  on the Nikei... I thunk.... 
slainte
............Kauri   :drink:


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*what just happened?*

what just happened then?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: what just happened?*



Stormin_Norman said:


> what just happened then?




there is an $8mill payoff at 140... the fight to protect/pop it is on... I thunk...
Slainte
............Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

i just moved a couple of take profit points out. 2 stops got hit, but another 2 trades ran on to make good profits. didnt expect such a sudden and large movement.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Stormin_Norman said:


> i just moved a couple of take profit points out. 2 stops got hit, but another 2 trades ran on to make good profits. didnt expect such a sudden and large movement.




Purportedly large nippon demand set for UK fix... something to keep in mind ... maybe.. or not... or even...  plurry hall...
Slainte
.........kaari


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall at the BoJ meeting wrap for next Friday , I think ........  ?

Might be throwing around the sushi by the end of that one .

More rice wine 

This is the third shot at 100 , if she pops ( never thought she would , but hey ........ must be worth something as a reserve currency  ) , what the flippin harry are they going to do with all those toyotas and mazdas etc. , of yeah China and India of course ...... hahaha carbon emission reductions , yeah right .
Load everone else up on them and start trading em .

Cough , cough , cough , well not until after the Olympics .

Now watch the remimbi get the screws turned on it .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

a fairly big if at the moment but no reason why 100 can't fall in a week or three.... seems to be in a 3 of 3... usually where the speed is highest....  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> a fairly big if at the moment but no reason why 100 can't fall in a week or three.... seems to be in a 3 of 3... usually where the speed is highest....
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




ill agree; if the US equity markets continue to be flat to negative. the swiss franc is in a similar position.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

If it doesn't hit 10910 to 10920 area by the end of March , I've blown an option . Can't win them all hey ..........

Chit happens daily , just try to avoid stepping in it and if you do , scrape it off polish the shoes and start again .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> If it doesn't hit 10910 to 10920 area by the end of March , I've blown an option . Can't win them all hey ..........




who do u option through? i want to do some option trades. 

OandA have this boxoption thing; but i think its a barstardised version of a real option and dont trust it until i get more then the basic information about it.


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Mine are through a brokerage Norm . ( full service )


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

purportedly a defence of 103 going on... with stops clustered below... if she takes it out it may lead to a bit of a drop??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> Mine are through a brokerage Norm . ( full service )




one day ill have enough funds to use one of them. ahh the joy.

ive taken a short position on the USDJPY 103.10 to cover my long on the AUDJPY @ 95.95. fingers crossed wall street isnt feeling excited on a monday morning. if they get to 1R ill move my SL to 0R and buy AUD/USD for the announcement tomorrow.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

a lot of intreday shorts covering.. also recent shorts with tight stops above the last intraday peak of 20 have been caught...  overalls are still favouring dropping... with intrday players looking to reset short on strength...  I thunk..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

strong bids under 103 in increments all the way to 102... maybe the Japanese Postal has delivered itself some mail from the Diet...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

If the touted intervention/support of the Yen is going to happen I guess that the current low is about where it would start... must be a mob of stops/defences around here too... if she breaks through though I imagine the resulting fall would be dramatic... maybe... I thunk...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Reserve currency or what  

There's a fundamental theory on the Yen being 96 on a reserve currency basis ........  new plunge team head coming up for sure


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Do you guys ever trade the spikes during intervention?


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Yes and sometimes ......... 


Floors and ceilings with a touch of fundamentals , lots of inuendo and gossip and especially when the vac is drag out


----------



## onemore

*Re: USDJPY*

Ithatheekret,
I like that name! I say it with a lisp.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

The sharp slide in consumer confidence has triggered fresh waves of USD selling sending USD/JPY plummeting to 99.71 and fresh lows for this current trend. Barrier options at 99.50 will now be targeted with stops eyed below. The DJIA is collapsing, down 276 pts and the US bond yields have gone into freefall with the yield now at 3.376% on the ten-yr bond compared to 3.52% overnight. Further option defense is eyed at 99.00 on USD/JPY with a huge crisis of confidence now hurting the USD and USD-based assets. 
  Bears-45%...  
  Time for GW's easter egg soon methunks...

  Incidentally, isn't Japan hosting the G..6,7,8,9,10..whatever this year?? and with them lampooning  and having a whale of a time blubbering over China protecting thier currency wouldn't it be awkwaard for them to intervene in thier own??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*



ithatheekret said:


> Reserve currency or what
> 
> There's a fundamental theory on the Yen being 96 on a reserve currency basis ........  new plunge team head coming up for sure




Cwaaar , there's 96 in view and I saved my bacon on a stuuuupid 109 option with a 101. - 96.98 trade .

Can get drunk for a week now and not be bothered by the commotion it causes


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

the only thing supporting the Yen is the fear of intervention.... I would think that with the forces seen massing behind the stockade at 95 it will not be long before the punters take a crack at it... intervention threat or not...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

one to keep a lazy eye on..  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> one to keep a lazy eye on..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Am treading carefully here... and with GBP crosses as well... an unsourced story around the traps of a UK bank having problems... true or not doesn't matter, it's the affect I watch out for....
Cheers
...........Kauri

all I can find out so far..
the 13th largest Spanish homebuilder failing to make payments on its debts today and with downgrades for German bank Dresdner today by Fitch and S&P.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> Am treading carefully here... and with GBP crosses as well... an unsourced story around the traps of a UK bank having problems... true or not doesn't matter, it's the affect I watch out for....
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri
> 
> all I can find out so far..
> the 13th largest Spanish homebuilder failing to make payments on its debts today and with downgrades for German bank Dresdner today by Fitch and S&P.




Have gone short the Yen... carefully.. don't trust these rallies of relief on Wall St... and also a large Asian CB is in the market selling US. a depegging coming up maybe??.. and from the Times...
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3578467.ece

..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

*Re: USDJPY*

Well with 96 on the boards , there's not much stopping it from getting pushed into 95 with an unwinding in carry trades , might take a few weeks , but at present the BoJ looks dormant , not in hybernation though ...........

The BoJ will have to cut somehow , sounds quite delusional I know with the current rate , but the US will go to 1% and the USD will weaken further ....... and there will be more writedowns , it's going to be amazing to see just what the BoJ manages to do . But I have noted a myriad of Japanese analysts spruiking that oil has not yet got back to fundamentals , which they claim to be well under $100 . I know oil will dip below $100 as positions are unwound , but that will only create oversold conditions which will draw funds from investors like a magnet .

If that is the case , it has me wondering just how long the Yen can maintain strength .......... unless the basket currency motions on oil eventuate or a load of pegs fall off the line .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

Too early yet... but a flag just may be unfurling.. on the 5min..
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> Too early yet... but a flag just may be unfurling.. on the 5min..
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Running up the pole... a bunch of stops touted at around 10080 which the Noram's may target..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Investor123

*Shorted USDJPY*

Stock market has continued to move downwards pulling USDJPY lower. Fear in the financial market will continue to strengthen Yen and create unwinding of carry trades.

According to the Big Mac Index, Yen is undervalued by 27%, so there is a lot of downside for USDJPY.

My trading system has been signalling SELL for USDJPY since it is trading at 109.60, and it is still signalling SELL now. 

Shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 108.82
Stop level at 109.85
Target level at 106.85


----------



## Investor123

*Re: Shorted USDJPY*



Investor123 said:


> Stock market has continued to move downwards pulling USDJPY lower. Fear in the financial market will continue to strengthen Yen and create unwinding of carry trades.
> 
> According to the Big Mac Index, Yen is undervalued by 27%, so there is a lot of downside for USDJPY.
> 
> My trading system has been signalling SELL for USDJPY since it is trading at 109.60, and it is still signalling SELL now.
> 
> Shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 108.82
> Stop level at 109.85
> Target level at 106.85




Target level of 106.85 was reached last Friday, profit is 197 pips.

*Shorted USDJPY again*

Today the yen fell by the most in three months against the euro and dropped versus the dollar as the U.S. government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets. This has caused USDJPY to rise to a peak of 109.00 during the Asia hours. 

I do not think that Yen weakness is sustainable. As long as there is fear and crisis remain in the financial market, Yen will rise and push USDJPY lower. I predict that we will see USDJPY going to to 104.00 before end of the year.

My trading system has signal SELL for USDJPY when it was trading at 109.60, and it is still signal SELL today.

Shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 108.43
Stop level at 109.38
Target level at 106.94


----------



## Investor123

*Re: USDJPY*

Yesterday I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 108.43, stop level at 110.00, target level at 106.94. 

USDJPY moves in my view, trading at 107.45 now, profit is up 92 pips.

My trading system is still signal SELL for USDJPY.


----------



## Investor123

*Re: USDJPY*

The dollar fell for the first day in three against the yen on speculation U.S. consumer spending will falter as the housing market weakens. 

Treasury 10-year notes gained yesterday amid speculation that the government bailout won't reverse the U.S. economic slowdown.


----------



## Investor123

*Re: USDJPY*



Investor123 said:


> Yesterday I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 108.43, stop level at 110.00, target level at 106.94.
> 
> USDJPY moves in my view, trading at 107.45 now, profit is up 92 pips.
> 
> My trading system is still signal SELL for USDJPY.




On Monday 8 September, I had shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 108.43, stop level at 110.00, target level at 106.94. 

The yen traded near a one-year high against the euro on speculation credit-market losses will spread, prompting investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with Japan's currency. Rising yen pushes USDJPY cross downwards.

USDJPY went below 106.94, reached my target level, so position is closed. Profit is 143 pips, US$264.44.


----------



## Investor123

*Re: USDJPY*

*Futures Traders Trim Bets on Yen Drop Vs Dollar *

Futures traders decreased their bets that the yen will decline against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the yen compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was 19,970 on Aug. 26, compared with net shorts of 23,138 a week earlier.

I had just closed my USDJPY trade with 143 pips profit, I will be looking to short USDJPY again if it rises above 108.50 level.


----------



## Investor123

*Re: USDJPY*

*Shorted My Favourite Currency Pair again *

My favourite currency pair is USDJPY because it has helped me to make money on several trades already.

As long as financial crisis is not over, hedge funds will continue to unwind their carry trades. Fear in the financial market will strengthen Yen.

My mid-term target price for USDJPY is 104, I believe we will see this level before end of the year.

My system is still signal SELL for USDJPY.

Shorted 20,000 USDJPY at 107.40
Stop level at 108.50
Target level at 106.10


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

the lesser-spotted raw prawn pattern suggests a carefull short...to me..  
....just hope it doesn't turn out to be raw!!!

  Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> the lesser-spotted raw prawn pattern suggests a carefull short...to me..
> ....just hope it doesn't turn out to be raw!!!
> 
> Cheers
> ..............Kauri




 just love them prawns...   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> just love them prawns...
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




 1R locked in... time to slip aways for some lubrication.... apologies for any bad behaviour in advance...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: USDJPY*

Another one of those days that ends with Y hey Kauri?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

fun whilst it lasted...     thanks heavens for Y's...   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*

been trading the range... down once... waiting to see if she makes it back up afore resetting..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



Kauri said:


> been trading the range... down once... waiting to see if she makes it back up afore resetting..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




 only got one more range trade down...  so far..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Cmon....you know you wanna


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

USD JPY 1H


----------



## IFocus

*Re: USDJPY*

USD.JPY currently getting smashed

.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Thats not smashed.

Check out the JPY crosses.

Now that's smashed!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*

i just cannot believe the moves i have missed today! What a day! Unbelieveable


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Plenty of action left Cannie.

SP Futs have gone limit down.

Going to be an interesting night


----------



## rthakkar

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> Plenty of action left Cannie.
> 
> SP Futs have gone limit down.
> 
> Going to be an interesting night




Totally agree. It is going to be an interesting night tonite. 

Honestly, I really want the market to find a bottom tonite. Enough of 500 points swing on DOW. Lets get over it once and for all, break the circuit, close at a double digit percentage loss so buyers gets some confidence to reenter next week. 

P.s. Is Trichet asleep? what is ECB doing with 3.75% rate?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*

This is incredible selling...global selling....the things that smell of caput!

I fell like a kid stuck inside during a raging blizzard....safe, sound, and able to watch it all in total awe!!!!

Amazing times people, amazing times... waiting for a retrace to enter...will the S&P cover any of the gap tonight???

COZ

Bent...if you have Skype PM me and i'll give you my UN, i just gotta experience this with someone!


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Sorry mate, no Skype here.

You'll just have to watch it lone ranger like me


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> Sorry mate, no Skype here.
> 
> You'll just have to watch it lone ranger like me




Struth Bent! What does it mean when you are Euphoric about a collapse? I;m so excited about this! I love it!!!!

CO


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Me too, I'm still short Euro ,Cable and Aussie Yen...lol


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> Me too, I'm still short Euro ,Cable and Aussie Yen...lol




Bloody murder mate! Good on ya, to be on such a huge move. 

Whats your guess for the open? I'm thinking (read:anticipating) a sharp decline through the pivot followed by a partial gap fill then a sharp decline into the close.....actually i have no idea but its a guess! In any case i'm looking for a pullback to short and get in for while. Honestly i think the move for the week has been made!

Cheers,


COz


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: USDJPY*



CanOz said:


> Struth Bent! What does it mean when you are Euphoric about a collapse? I;m so excited about this! I love it!!!!
> 
> CO



You aren't the only one!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*



chops_a_must said:


> You aren't the only one!




Yeah, its like holly Cr*P i am alive to witness this, and gain from this experience while still in CASH!!!! (whatever thats worth at the end of this).

OR 

Maybe i just love chaos.....

Why do you love it so much Chops?

COz


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: USDJPY*



CanOz said:


> Yeah, its like holly Cr*P i am alive to witness this, and gain from this experience while still in CASH!!!! (whatever thats worth at the end of this).
> 
> OR
> 
> Maybe i just love chaos.....
> 
> Why do you love it so much Chops?
> 
> COz



I love adrenalin. Very much like white line fever at the moment.

Plus the stimulation of everything moving so quickly and wildly.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*

Exactly, the volatility, and watching the reactions to the various price levels...spotting opportunity. I don't always take positions because i just have not got the experience to be comfortable with the setup...patience....wait for the obvious one i reckon.

Cheers,


COz


----------



## 1080p

*Re: USDJPY*

USDJPY just broke 90.  It'll be interesting to see what the BOJ will do now...


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

getting hammered even more than the crosses at this stage.

Hopefully no intervention but who knows??
It would seem likely at these levels.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Feels like De Ja Vu 

USD/JPY and Yen crosses just got wacked.

Hourly:


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

and a big bounce. know what caused that?


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Technically it was a text book double bottom (to the pip.)


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

USDJPY has rallied all the way from its lows to break out of a Sym Triangle on the Hourlies.

Currernt range is 156 pips which is well over the 5 Day av of 112.

Got legs??

Edit: has moved a lot higher as I have typed this post


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: USDJPY*

Don`t know what the quote was back then Ben Trod but I`ve picked up another symetrical triangle at the 3/4 way point.

Just wondering if the USD would be bought with Japan experiencing its worst economic phase for 35 years (well that`s what I read anyway).

Does anyone know what usually happens with this type of news?

Here is the price range being condensed in a symetrical triangle.(again  )


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Yeah watching that one too although a bit messy for my liking, plus the market will be dead untill EU comes online.

Still looks like it would be a good sell as it touches the top if it looks like it will roll over.

If it goes on much longer the price action will be too far into the corner so it will end up breaking out by default which usually involves a break on both sides.




> Does anyone know what usually happens with this type of news?




No idea, I don't base any trades on news as there is no way to anticipate the reaction.


----------



## Glen48

*Re: USDJPY*

My limited understanding is USA will try and get the 800B bailout money from Japan which should support the Yen.
From Fat Prophets:

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, amid an unprecedented collapse in exports and production.

Gross domestic product fell for a third straight quarter in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 11.6 percent contraction.

Exports plunged a record 13.9 percent from the third quarter as global demand for Corolla cars and Bravia televisions evaporated. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. -- all of which are forecasting losses -- are firing thousands of workers, heightening the risk a slump in household spending will prolong the recession.

Japan’s post WWII renaissance has been built around supplying the US consumer with capital goods, cars and electronics. This has led to Japan developing a world class export sector, which has in turn helped the country to amass huge amounts of capital, the result of persistent trade surpluses.

Now, because of Japan’s strong creditor nation status, a strengthening yen, combined with a major drop in US consumption, is wreaking havoc on the export sector. And unfortunately, Japan’s domestic sector is not healthy enough to even partially offset the export led weakness.

On the surface, it is easy to blame Japan’s woes on the global recession. But the underlying problem is the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Dollar hegemony has allowed global trade imbalances to get completely out of hand. For years, Japan has underwritten US growth by buying treasury bonds and until recently overtaken by China, was the world’s largest owner of US
treasuries.



Given the problems in the export sector, we would not be surprised to see the Japanese once again come to the aid of the US by buying up hundreds of billions worth of treasuries. Japan would have to print and then sell yen to buy dollars, which would have the effect of improving the dollar/yen exchange rate in favour of Japan’s exporters.

The US obviously does not have enough domestic savings to finance its upcoming mega deficits. So having the Japanese to help out would be welcomed. This of course would prolong and extend the imbalances, so would only be a short term fix.

It is worth remembering that under the classical gold standard imbalances could not build in the system, and any adjustments were usually short - albeit violent. Nation’s could not run enduring deficits because they would run out of gold, a sign that their credit had also run out. Dollar hegemony provides the US with unending credit, as long as faith remains in the integrity of the currency. This system has ‘worked’ for the past 35 years, but we don’t think it will, or can, continue.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

the race to the bottom.

the currency crosses are becoming a fight with wet newspaper as each government/central bank is attempting to force down their currencies either directly, or indirectly.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: USDJPY*



> Still looks like it would be a good sell as it touches the top if it looks like it will roll over.




Apparently not. 





Wysiwyg said:


> Here is the price range being condensed in a symmetrical triangle.(again  )




And the ensuing breakout of range ....


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: USDJPY*



Glen48 said:


> My limited understanding is USA will try and get the 800B bailout money from Japan which should support the Yen.




I thought China was their main source of borrowings.How can we know?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

the USA treasury will end up borrowing from the fed.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*



> And the ensuing breakout of range ....




Looks like a classic fakeout to me.

Either way, didn't even come close to rolling on a touch.

You long or short W??


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Coilies on coilies.......Budgie Man would be proud...


----------



## sinner

*Re: USDJPY*

We are approaching January resistance.

What does this mean? Demand for JPY fading as the yen carry trade winds up (yea right!)? BOJ intervention? A sudden demand for USD in excess of the carry trade?

Break through 100MA is bullish, but the stochastic is starting to look overbought.

Appreciate your thoughts. Not trading this pair after last week but it has important implications for the state of the markets as a whole.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

rumour has it the japanese will print yen to buy USD and US govt bonds.

weakening the yen and helping their exporters with a weaker yen.


----------



## CFDTrading

*US Dollar, Japanese Yen Down as CPI Shows the US is Teetering on Brink of Deflation*

Foreign Exchange Markets Fundamental Outlook

Monday, 23 February 2009 04:15:39 GMT 
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist 


• Euro Jumps as ECB’s Nowotny Says Zero Rates ‘Neither Desirable Nor Needed’
• British Pound Gains as UK Retail Sales Rise, UK GDP Revision Could Weigh Next Week
• Canadian Dollar Shows Little Reaction to Bigger Than Expected Drop in Canadian CPI


*US Dollar, Japanese Yen Down as CPI Shows the US is Teetering on Brink of Deflation*
The US dollar and Japanese yen ended Friday mostly lower despite clear signs of risk aversion as evidenced by gold's test of $1000/oz, sharp drops in global stock markets, and a rally in government bonds, including US Treasuries. However, with the majors generally still contained to ranges and near their spike highs/lows, it may be a bit early to say that the US dollar and Japanese yen have lost their status as “safe havens,” as correlations have a tendency to fade in and out over time. Looking at charts of the DXY Index, price pulled back from resistance at the 2008 highs and the outlook for the greenback for the next few weeks may hinge upon whether or not the drop signal a reversal or ultimately yields a break higher.

On Thursday we noted that surprisingly strong producer price growth suggested that consumer price growth would be similarly high. This proved to be the case on Friday morning as the US consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent in January, while the core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent. The more important factor though, was that these moves helped to prevent the annualized CPI reading from falling into negative territory for the first time since 1955. Instead, the figure eased to 0 percent, signaling that prices have essentially gone unchanged from January 2007, while the core figure stayed afloat at 1.7 percent, down from 1.8 percent in December. It appears that producers aren’t passing on lower input costs to consumers, as they struggle to maintain profits as demand falters, but with CPI still historically low, the Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to be concerned about upside risks to inflation, as contracting demand and credit creates greater risks for deflation.

Looking ahead to next week there will be a handful of events that US dollar traders will need to watch. On February 24 at 10:00 ET, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the month of February is forecasted to reach a fresh record low of 36.0, down from 37.7. With record keeping having begun in 1967, the plunge in sentiment makes the extent of the recession even more clear. However, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke due to testify before the Senate on the economic and Fed policy at the same time, the consumer confidence result may have little impact on the markets. Instead, traders will be listening closely for more detailed outlooks on growth, unemployment, inflation, and the financial markets. Bearish commentary could weigh heavily on risk appetite, and as a result it will be important to keep an eye on the link between the currency markets and stocks, as the Japanese yen hasn’t been responding as strongly to shifts in equities while the US dollar still tends to benefit from flight-to-quality. On February 26 at 8:30 ET, signs that domestic demand is showing no sign of recovery should continue to emerge on February 26 as US Durable Goods Orders are forecasted to have dropped 2.3 percent and even excluding transportation is anticipated to fall 2.0 percent. Finally, on February 27, the 08:30 ET preliminary reading of Q4 GDP for the US is forecasted to be revised even lower after initial estimates showed the index down 3.5 percent. The latest results may show a sharp 5.4 percent contraction, which would still be the worst since Q1 1982.

*Euro Jumps as ECB’s Nowotny Says Zero Rates ‘Neither Desirable Nor Needed’*
The euro jumped during the US trading session as European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said that cutting interest rates down to zero was “neither desirable nor needed,” suggesting that the ECB’s dovish bias may be fading quickly. However, the markets are still expecting a 50 basis point cut by the ECB on March 5, as various other ECB members have signaled such a move in recent weeks. Furthermore, data continues to disappoint as the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Euro-zone's manufacturing and services sectors unexpectedly fell to a new record low in February or 36.2 from 38.3, which also signals a contraction in activity for the ninth straight month since the index remains below 50. Looking ahead to next week, Eurostat inflation estimates for the Euro-zone have shown that CPI may have fallen to a 1.1 percent annual pace during January, which would mark the lowest since 1999 but more importantly, remains below the European Central Bank’s 2.0 percent inflation target. If Eurostat confirms this at 5:00 ET on February 27, the euro could pull back, especially ahead of the ECB's meeting the following week. On the other hand, if CPI is higher than anticipated, the currency could gain as the markets will speculate that the central bank may pause in their efforts to make monetary policy more accommodative.

*British Pound Gains as UK Retail Sales Rise, UK GDP Revision Could Weigh Next Week*
The British pound gained on Friday after UK retail sales figures showed another rise in spending during the month of January amidst heavy discounting. However, the BOE said a few months ago that they would not put too much stock into these government statistics as they are often volatile, and instead they look toward private surveys like BRC retail sales. Next week on February 25, the 04:30 ET preliminary reading of Q4 GDP for the UK is forecasted to revised even lower, down to -1.6 percent from -1.5 percent, which would still mark the lowest level since Q2 1980. The UK has been hit particularly hard by the credit crunch, especially since the country became one of the biggest financial centers in the world. This has translated into a full-on collapse of the housing market, climbing job losses, and weak consumption. Furthermore, with growth slowing around the world, demand for British exports has declined as well, putting a large burden on manufacturers. Overall, a greater-than-expected decline could lead the British pound lower as the data would raise the odds the  Bank of England will cut rates again on March 5. On the other hand, if GDP is a bit better than forecasts, the currency could gain.

Canadian Dollar Shows Little Reaction to Bigger Than Expected Drop in Canadian CPI
The Canadian dollar showed a relatively muted reaction to inflation figures, despite the fact CPI fell more than expected, as sharp declines in the US dollar across the majors determined price action for the USD/CAD pair. Taking a closer look at the data, CPI slumped for the fourth straight month in January at a rate of 0.3 percent, bringing the annual rate down to match the two-year low of 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s core measure slipped another 0.4 percent, dragging the annual rate down to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent. Overall, weaker commodity prices are dragging broader prices lower, but as we discussed yesterday, cheaper oil has extremely negative repercussions for the Canadian economy as a whole.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

USDJPY has been trending really well the last few days, some great trades to be had intraday .

Starting to move now after it broke the Yearly high @ 94.63.

Looking extended for Today though!

Hourly:


----------



## GumbyLearner

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> USDJPY has been trending really well the last few days, some great trades to be had intraday .
> 
> Starting to move now after it broke the Yearly high @ 94.63.
> 
> Looking extended for Today though!
> 
> Hourly:




That chart looks like an erect penis!

I have doubts! And I'm certainly not a feminist!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: USDJPY*



GumbyLearner said:


> That chart looks like an erect penis!
> 
> I have doubts! And I'm certainly not a feminist!




tanks... now my good lady is asking what I have been selling her these past few years.. 

Cheers
......... bobbitt


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Might be off to races again.

USDJPY 15m:


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: USDJPY*

The post below by CFD Trader has classic resistance at 102.50 & 103.75.That is some rise over the last few weeks.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*



Wysiwyg said:


> The post below by CFD Trader has classic resistance at 102.50 & 103.75.That is some rise over the last few weeks.




You've lost me W

Can you post a chart?


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> You've lost me W



No wuz B.R. If ye scroll to post #268 (Foreign Exchange Markets Fundamental Outlook) there is a list of s & r levels submitted by a currency strategist at the bottom of the post.

Pleasure to help anyone.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Ah ok...now I see what you were talking about.


----------



## Wysiwyg

*Re: USDJPY*

I managed to get 1 short to stick just over 97 so at the moment its looking good.Can`t tell if that was the high for a while today but as usual the time will reveal.Looks like a shoulder and noggin has formed on the hourly though.We shall see.

One option could be to drop off around the neck and aim for the right shoulder or just in case they want to fly even higher again.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

EURJPY rolling over too.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*

can someone tell me the yen is going to rally about 100 points please?


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Norm....The Yen is going to rally 100 pips.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> Norm....The Yen is going to rally 100 pips.




thanks bentrod.


----------



## i_in

*Re: USDJPY*

I think the target is 93.55


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*



BentRod said:


> Norm....The Yen is going to rally 100 pips.




you sir, are a gentleman and a scholar.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*

Glad to be of service.

Maybe we should thank i-in though :

Been some great trading , still got a few open.


----------



## i_in

*Re: USDJPY*

thank me later


----------



## Stormin_Norman

*Re: USDJPY*



i_in said:


> I think the target is 93.55




i would have been sweating if it had dropped to that level.


----------



## BentRod

*Re: USDJPY*



i_in said:


> thank me later




Sadly there was no pop through.

I was watching it too but looks like there wasn't much significance.


----------



## i_in

*Re: USDJPY*

OK, I hold my short from 98.60 / 11.03 stop 99.70 target 93.50, for now. I think USD/JPY going below 87!


----------



## sinner

*Re: USDJPY*

Hi i_in, a chart to explain your position would be nice!

When I look at the weekly or daily I am inclined to place a simple technical target of 104ish (top of the long term down channel).

But in the short term am scalping shorts off the 5m (below).


----------



## sinner

*Re: USDJPY*

Hi guys,

We could also be like this. Don't take my word for it, just throwing up a few interpretations to bounce off you kiddies.

I like pretty lines. Only playing in the markets tonight with USDJPY scalps on tight stops.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: USDJPY*

Sinner, i hope your not running a Nuclear power plant or something while you trade? Or do you work days?

CanOz


----------



## sinner

*Re: USDJPY*

Hi can, are ya making fun of me? :

I worked 72 hours of 7pm-7am shifts from Friday-Friday and now on a week off. 

Have been stuck in a nocturnal cycle since then anyway (drunken DJing in the city on Sat night didn't help any) so I been trying to catch some screen time scalping on the NYSE. However today I went to bed at 8am and woke up about 130pm so hopefully can go back to a normal cycle tonight!

At this point I am close to giving up on trading, I originally got interested through my gold research as a possible income source. But the input time required is too high for my liking (nor do I have the time to develop an EA).

Maybe Norm can let me throw a thousand in the Bunjip pot?  Money is only cool if it's easy right? 

So are we gonna actually talk about the currency pair or what hehe. What do you guys think? Any long term signals popping up?

Weekly:


----------



## itsmejasong

Just wondering if any one is following the usd/jpy? Im short on the positions and entered around the 97 mark, I don't have many contracts on.


----------



## i_in

*Re: USDJPY*

little rusty on
I want to say that here is good short if you still someone think it is time for a 103, 110 or something ;>
gl


----------



## gazelle

*usdjpy*

94.23 low should hold .


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: usdjpy*

Didn't.

Did you have anything to back up your prediction or just a stab in the dark?

The May lows around 93.84 looks to be more important to me.


----------



## gazelle

*Re: USDJPY*

Timing indicated a low on the 8th and price went welll below expected levels stopping me out . I didnt put much work into this trade and wasnt organised , have spent today trying to align 60 min and daily turning points so see how it goes . The FX programme I am using wont give me accurate times going back 
If anyone is able could you please  give me a precise time for 
6th April 2009 top 
21st January 2009 low 
22nd June 2007 high 

The next date I am working on is the 31st July but much more work is required .

Thanks Gazelle


----------



## itso

*Re: USDJPY*



i_in said:


> OK, I hold my short from 98.60 / 11.03 stop 99.70 target 93.50, for now. I think USD/JPY going below 87!




by some stupid reason i can't use my old account....
so here we are below and now we can safely go for somewhere around .70


----------



## nseforex

*Re: USDJPY*

1st tgt: 92, 2nd 94


----------



## akkopower

*Re: USDJPY*

Anyone got any comments where this one will be heading.


Silly question. If I have the view that the yen will drop against the USD, am i able to short the jpyusd?

Will a broker sell me this or just tell me to go long on the USDJPY?


----------



## Profit Scenario

*Re: USDJPY*



akkopower said:


> Anyone got any comments where this one will be heading.
> 
> 
> Silly question. If I have the view that the yen will drop against the USD, am i able to short the jpyusd?
> 
> Will a broker sell me this or just tell me to go long on the USDJPY?




If the JPY drops against the USD that means that USD gets stronger (relatively) so USDJPY is going to rise; you definitely should go LONG on that. Inspite of this fact that if you decide to go AGAINST the market and go short, yes you can. 
Your broker should not have to say anything just accept your trade order regardless its direction.


----------



## arco

*Re: USDJPY*

.
Early warning given on the blog - circa +500 pips

Learn the Ichimoku Magic

Happy New Year to All - arco


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: USDJPY*

Live one I just got on.

I have bought USD/JPY at 90.955 SL at 89.98 TP at 90.52.

Got a bounce to new high off/just below MAs ATR climbing suggesting volatility picking up with the new break.

time will tell, blue line is ent on the chart.

Good Trading


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: USDJPY*



>Apocalypto< said:


> I have bought USD/JPY at *90.955* SL at 89.98 TP at *90.52*.




Am I missing something here or is that a typo?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: USDJPY*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Am I missing something here or is that a typo?




major typo ent was at 90.155! exit at 90.50

thanks for the pick up Sam


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: USDJPY*



>Apocalypto< said:


> major typo ent was at 90.155! exit at 90.50
> 
> thanks for the pick up Sam




Well done, nice trade! 

Do you trade the 3 main ones mostly? EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: USDJPY*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well done, nice trade!
> 
> Do you trade the 3 main ones mostly? EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD?




cheers, 

I focus on 4 pairs, EURUSD USDJPY USDCAD & GBPAUD of late I have been looking at the USDNOK and EURGBP alot as well. 

6 pairs is about my limit.

Good-Trading..................


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: USDJPY*



> Japan Ruling Party Lawmaker: Need monetary easing, FX intervention to weaken JPY, beat deflation
> ( Update 1 , 12:09 )
> 
> Says:
> - Government should set 2% inflation target for BOJ to achieve within 2 years
> - BOJ must abandon its cap on JGB buying to reflate economy.




This just flashed up on the screen, instantaneous 40 pip spike on the USDJPY, 60+ on EURJPY


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: USDJPY*

Surprised this hasn't been commented on yet!

BOJ have decided to intervene to try and weaken the yen:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...nce-2004-as-yen-surge-threatens-recovery.html



> Japan intervened in the foreign- exchange market for the first time since 2004 after a surge in the yen to the strongest against the dollar in 15 years threatened to stunt the nation’s economic recovery.
> 
> Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters in Tokyo the yen sales were unilateral. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yo****o Sengoku said the ministry “seems to think” 82 yen per dollar to be the line of defense, after it reached 82.88 earlier today.





Some interesting analysis from Mish too:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/currency-intervention-madness-japan.html



> Is Currency Manipulation OK or Not?
> 
> Both China and Japan are intervening in the Forex markets for the same reason, to strengthen exports and stimulate the economy.
> 
> Pardon me for asking the obvious question but it needs to be asked: Why does Geithner give the green light for Japan to intervene in the currency markets but China is threatened with a currency manipulator label for doing the same thing?




And a chart to update things as well:


----------



## lusk

*Re: USDJPY*



professor_frink said:


> Surprised this hasn't been commented on yet!
> 
> BOJ have decided to intervene to try and weaken the yen:
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...nce-2004-as-yen-surge-threatens-recovery.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some interesting analysis from Mish too:
> 
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/currency-intervention-madness-japan.html
> 
> 
> 
> And a chart to update things as well:




All central banks manipulate their currency, The RBA did it not long ago when the aussie dollar plunged to 60 cents, probably do it again before it reaches parity too.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: USDJPY*

Mmmm still only back to where it was a couple of weeks ago though? Will it really make that much difference? Probably just a good time to short


----------



## tayser

*Re: USDJPY*

GBP/JPY 128 to 133.... hello


----------



## noie

*Re: USDJPY*



tayser said:


> GBP/JPY 128 to 133.... hello




Yes i am happy with that (paid in pounds living in Tokyo)
I still dream of the 240 when i first made my way here.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

*Re: USDJPY*

Looks like there will be some more intervening..


----------



## tayser

*Re: USDJPY*

of course there will be - their last intervention lasted a year or more!

the BOJ's going to make some good cash-money-farken in the process too!


----------



## zac

*USDJPY*

USDJPY has been an unusual one.
Only a couple weeks ago analysts were saying that it looked like it was going to have a breakout to the upside.
It was trading around the 78 mark,

As of the last few days there was a huge drop and now is around 76.6
I cant understand why the JPY has strengthened. Fundamentally I cant see what the changes are, also as the USD is actually strengthening.

Also for the weeks before there was little variation in the value, ie it hovered just under 78 but the last few days has seen it swing south a fair bit.

Anyone able to shed any light?


----------



## Boggo

*Re: USDJPY*

How to get stopped out too soon.

Went long, had to go out for a while so I set stop loss and take profit at the 2.7 x R/R. Profit stop executed and it just kept on going, why is that it never does that when I am watching it.
Could have got 7.8 x R/R  and its still going.

(click to expand)


----------



## Douglas Class

USD/JPY  DAILY as of Thursday, 14 March, 2013
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave C
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
normal amplitude (21%): bearish wave 4
US Dollar / Japanese Yen is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 86.58 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 66.82 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 86.39 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 2.75, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 77.84. This value is in the overbought territory.
A Daily white body has formed (because prices closed higher than they opened).
A Daily engulfing bearish line has formed on 12/03/2013 (where a black candle's real body completely contains the previous white candle's real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Japanese Yen). It signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.  
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle's real body.


----------



## Boggo

Interesting commentary Douglas, Cheers.

In the wave 4 retracement area now on the 5 min chart, dont really like the out of proportion W2 vs W4 though, no symmetry.

(click to expand)


----------



## Douglas Class

USD/JPY  DAILY as of Wednesday, 20 March, 2013
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 94.37 one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave C
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
normal amplitude (21%): bearish wave 4
US Dollar / Japanese Yen is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 87.05 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 58.24 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 78.07 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 2.07, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 9.70. This value is in the oversold territory.


----------



## Douglas Class

USD/JPY  DAILY as of Friday, 29 March, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 3 white candles versus 7 black candles with a net of 4 black candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 23 white candles versus 27 black candles with a net of 4 black candles.
A Daily hammer formed (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold(which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Japanese Yen) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.A Daily hanging man has formed (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend(which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Japanese Yen) it is called a bullish hammer.A Daily long lower shadow has formed. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).A Daily spinning top has formed (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.Three Daily black candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.


----------



## Boggo

Went long as indicated, got stopped out as indicated and then up it went without me.

I guess that could be payback for me going to the MAD thread and winding jancha up 

(click to expand)


----------



## CanOz

Boggo said:


> Went long as indicated, got stopped out as indicated and then up it went without me.
> 
> I guess that could be payback for me going to the MAD thread and winding jancha up
> 
> (click to expand)






Yeah, I thought it might be a good idea to finish up before Ben started jaw boning and affecting all the dollar denominated assets....


----------



## havaiana

USD/JPY in it's 8th straight up month, my data only goes back so far, but i don't see any time there has ever been 9 months straight in one direction and next major level is a fair way from here


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee The Yen is in a very interesting place. Is this a bottoming pattern or just a consolidation before further drops.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Where's your money, long or short?  I'd say consolidation before further drops.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> Where's your money, long or short?  I'd say consolidation before further drops.




I'd guess that we could be forming the start of a short squeeze that could bankrupt Japan. If it breaks up they are stuffed.


----------



## havaiana

It's been trading really well with the Nikkei during Asia the past few weeks, have had the feeling the past couple of days it's starting to fight it a bit though, but I still think if there is a decent break either way in the Nikkei it will determine the direction until the fed says something big

Action hasn't been natural though, I reckon the BOJ have got a lot more intelligent after all their intervention experience


----------



## havaiana

Yen has been very persistently offered these past couple of days, not even any spikes have been able to eat through them as of yet




If the nikkei can break up today there should be a fair bit of short covering which will give at least a short term reversal in the Yen, if not looks like we will just continue to grind down


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> If the nikkei can break up today there should be a fair bit of short covering which will give at least a short term reversal in the Yen, if not looks like we will just continue to grind down




Looking at the spot when i should be looking at futures etc

if the nikkei can break up today, will lead to a further breakdown in futures or break up in spot, not a reversal!


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Looking at the spot when i should be looking at futures etc
> 
> if the nikkei can break up today, will lead to a further breakdown in futures or break up in spot, not a reversal!




Yeah, i see the 6J is breaking down, this is good!!


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Yeah, i see the 6J is breaking down, this is good!!




missed that retrace just now, thought it would continue a few more ticks, if the Seng opens strong it's going to take off without me


----------



## havaiana

YEN was looking extremely strong against the USD during Europe/US last night, even when everything else was bouncing it just kept staying strong.


----------



## havaiana

Equities opening weak and yen looking like it could rollover hard if the momentum keeps up


----------



## havaiana

Market talk of a lot of Options interest in this pair at the moment that will keep it pegged pretty close to 98 until option expiry in US session.

I like the short side a bit better as if it does make a move away from 98 there will be a lot of stops under the NFP low from yesterday

This pair has given me a kicking the last month, so have been trading it less the past week or so and concentrating more on AUD.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Looking at a long on the $Y on Monday either at market or on a Buy Limit. 

Liking the break it's making off Fridays news. few things going for it... been in  consolidation formation for a while. with a good test and bounce off the previous roof of short term down trend. brings up a higher low and start of a new short term rally. 

once long want to see it hold above the low of the sat close. it is at a point of short term resistance... still unsure if this current news push has and follow through.


----------



## havaiana

>Apocalypto< said:


> Looking at a long on the $Y on Monday either at market or on a Buy Limit.
> 
> Liking the break it's making off Fridays news. few things going for it... been in  consolidation formation for a while. with a good test and bounce off the previous roof of short term down trend. brings up a higher low and start of a new short term rally.
> 
> once long want to see it hold above the low of the sat close. it is at a point of short term resistance... still unsure if this current news push has and follow through.





You still long? today could be the day

I had a long bias today but went for a small short scalp before the nikkei opened and smoked half my daily stop. Have reversed now and it's one i want to hold, will add if it goes against me (as much as the rest of my daily stop will allow for!)

Edit: damn was really expecting/hoping for a bigger pop above 100.50, c'mon, gogogo


----------



## havaiana

USD/JPY not keeping up with nikkei, think i want to see nikkei breach daily highs again and USD/JPY to pop when it does to keep holding long.

Update: both sinking, still want long though, have scratched and will try to reload further down (maybe around 30) rather than hold and add. If it doesn't get break the 5 min low at 33 and goes through the roof I'm probably going to need a new mouse


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ... damn was really expecting/hoping for a bigger pop above 100.50, c'mon, gogogo





POP! 30 tick spike. Lucky, I don't have another spare mouse


----------



## havaiana

$141,000,000 order anybody? biggest i have ever seen, and as you can see from the second shot, it's real!


----------



## cogs

Seems to have done the trick.


----------



## havaiana

cogs said:


> Seems to have done the trick.




Yep. Last few hundred orders were never filled, then went on a 130+ tick move the other way (US news obviously the main factor for most of that, but still!)

Pretty rare you see someone hit so much of a big order without taking out the whole thing imo, usually if it's not going to take it out it wont get there at all, or will test with just a few contracts to see if it's real then go the other way


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> Y...(US news obviously the main factor for most of that, but still!)...




Just to correct my misinformation, there was no US data, I didn't trade last night and was thinking tonight's data was happening last night for some reason...


----------



## forextrader168

*Trade Setup for - USDJPY Daily Outlook for 23rd December 2013 (Monday)*

Hello Guys,
This is my trade setup for today
Thanks

USDJPY Daily Outlook for 23rd December 2013 (Monday)

**this is my personal favorite setup for the week**

Daily Chart








We are trading within the 104's area which is not a strong support
We expect the market to test the resistance in the near term.




Hourly Chart 




Fell of a rising wedge and was according to my analysis last Friday
I hope for market to go down to the blue area which is my demand level  (50% fib retrace)which looks attractive as we haven't retested this area as an support after breakout to the 104's 



*Outlook Trade opportunity
Two trading opportunity here, my forecast is for price to go down to test the 50% retrace at 103.550 near term.  So i will have a buy limit at that area.

 If market retraces back up to around 104.32 before hitting my forecast area, i will be shorting from there down to potentially my target area and taking partial profits on the way

 #1  - Short at 104.32 (only if prices have not reached my forecast of 103.550) - Target to 103.550 while taking partial profits on the way and Break even for a risk free trade)

 #2 - Long at 103.550 for initial 20pips profit take majority of position off, and leave small portion for bigger trend continuation to the upside.
*

Risk Level Low


----------



## forextrader168

*Re: Trade Setup for - USDJPY Daily Outlook for 23rd December 2013 (Monday)*

Hey GUys
Just wanted to update the trade as per my trade setup yesterday.

*Short order got filled this morning (aussie time), and partial Took profit at 13pips*



There is a possible AB = CD in play , (B is where i took profit, and now looking for D)



http://daily-forex-trader.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/usdjpy-ab-cd.html



Safe trading guys

Merry xmas



forextrader168 said:


> Hello Guys,
> This is my trade setup for today
> Thanks
> 
> USDJPY Daily Outlook for 23rd December 2013 (Monday)
> 
> **this is my personal favorite setup for the week**
> 
> Daily Chart
> 
> View attachment 55962
> 
> View attachment 55963
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We are trading within the 104's area which is not a strong support
> We expect the market to test the resistance in the near term.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hourly Chart
> 
> View attachment 55964
> 
> 
> Fell of a rising wedge and was according to my analysis last Friday
> I hope for market to go down to the blue area which is my demand level  (50% fib retrace)which looks attractive as we haven't retested this area as an support after breakout to the 104's
> 
> 
> 
> *Outlook Trade opportunity
> Two trading opportunity here, my forecast is for price to go down to test the 50% retrace at 103.550 near term.  So i will have a buy limit at that area.
> 
> If market retraces back up to around 104.32 before hitting my forecast area, i will be shorting from there down to potentially my target area and taking partial profits on the way
> 
> #1  - Short at 104.32 (only if prices have not reached my forecast of 103.550) - Target to 103.550 while taking partial profits on the way and Break even for a risk free trade)
> 
> #2 - Long at 103.550 for initial 20pips profit take majority of position off, and leave small portion for bigger trend continuation to the upside.
> *
> 
> Risk Level Low


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## forextrader168

*USDJPY Daily and Weekly Outlook for 6th January, 2014 (MONDAY)*

*USDJPY Daily and Weekly Outlook for 6th January, 2014 (MONDAY)*

*Daily Chart*


•	After rejecting from the 161.8 fib extension market tried to retrace however failed to go any futher and performed a nice pin bar on Friday 
•	Signs are showing bullish (Price action)
•	Indicators... stochastic are pushing south, but they are lagging, RSI just under 70
I have my eyes on the 106.100 area and will be very very happy to short it there as there are major fib extension levels of confluence.



*Hourly Chart *




•	After a huge drop , we have found support at 104.1 level and saw price had quickly retraced 100% of the 2nd Leg (C-D) 
•	At close of Friday, price had stalled just below a resistance level , however candles prior to that are very strong bullish momentum
•	Chances of breaking higher / breaking resistance is high


*Outlook Trade opportunity

Three setups - 
*

#1 - If price had not break the resistance, I will look for opportunity to buy long at around 104.650 with stops at the 104.450 - Targets at 104.830 tp1, and 105.110 tp2

#2 - If market breaks through resistance with good conviction and past 104.940 , I will look for opportunity to buy long at a retrace approx 104.915 and stops 104.746 with targets 105.110 and beyond

#3 - I have my eyes on the 106.100 area and will be very very happy to short it there as there are major fib extension levels of confluence.
Risk Level Low


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## PipSafe

USD /JPY pair from the end of 2012 till now was in a strong and without reformation uptrend that shows buyers determination to achieve predetermined targets. Price during the recent uptrend was able to record the highest price of  105.424 which is possible to convert to a top price in Monthly time frame.During the Down trend from Top price of 105.424, price with reaching to the uptrend line and breaking of it did not qualify for descending. In the return of Price, the uptrend line’s property is reversed and as a Resistive line is impressive on price(S=R).Right now in Daily and H4 time frames, the price is under 5-day moving average that shows the descending trend and warns about more descending.

According to the formed movements in Daily time frame, there is Wolfe Wave descending pattern which the 5th point of this pattern is completed and is going toward the target line.RSI indicator( Weekly Chart ) is in saturation buy area and in divergence mode with the price chart and confirms the top price and warns about changing price direction during the next candles.Generally until the resistance level of 105.424 is not broken, price has the potential for descending and reformation in this currency pair.


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## ahsan1

USD/JPY is one of the best pair for trading . i like this pair because the movement of this pair is so good from other pairs and we get early profit.


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## havaiana

Stocks up, risk currencies up, gold down, USD/JPY down?

Yen acting very strange at the moment, not sure what to make of it.

Kuroda speaking at 4pm today, could trigger some fireworks


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## PipSafe

USD/JPY was in a consistent descending trend that sellers during this descending trend were successful in achieving the lowest price level of 100.763.According to the recent downfall, in weekly and daily time frames price is under 5-day moving average and warns about more descending during the next candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 95.818 and the top price of 105.421 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.

RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current bottom price and warns about descending of price during the next candles.Price is going toward the support level of 101.320 (the important psychic level of Sellers) and there is not any clear reason of buy signal in long term time frames such as daily and weekly.Generally until the top price of 104.138 is preserved, there is a potential for descending and price reformation in this currency pair.


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## PipSafe

USD/JPY from Top price of 104.124 was in downtrend that Sellers could achieve the lowest level of 100.836. Price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the specified supportive level(Support Zone) and with closing of the bullish candle(Spinning Top!), there is a warning for changing price direction. Formation and repeating the Hammer and Spinning Top candlestick patterns on 19st, 20th and 21th days shows indecision market in ascending or descending and vulnerability of downtrend which prepare the field for formation of a bottom price. 

Right now price is above 5-day moving average in short term time frames such as H4 and H1 daily that shows a consistent uptrend in short period of time. As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 103.010 and bottom price of 100.836, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that warns about the potential for ascending of the price. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart confirms the D point of harmonic patterns and warns about potential of ascending during the next candles. Generally according to the current situation until the bottom price of 100.836 (D harmonic point) is preserved m there is a potential for ascending and increasing of the price in short period of time.

*Technical Analysis of USD/JPY  dated 2014.05.22*


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## PipSafe

USD/JPY had an ascending trend without a noticeable reformation during the recent weeks that shows buyer certainty in reaching to the predetermined targets.The price could record the top price of 110.066 in Weekly time frame which is fixed by descending candle.The price by reaching to the Median line has been stopped from more ascend and by forming a Hanging Man candlestick pattern( possibility of formation of a top price and changing price direction)and fixing of it by  a descending candle has prepared the field for creating a top price and a descending trend.

RSI indicator is in saturation Buy area and divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current Top price and warns about descending of price during the next candles. According to the formed movements in weekly chart of this currency pair, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern  with ideal  ratios of 50 and 200 between bottom price of 96.507 and  the top price of 110.066 that by completion of the D point in this pattern, there is warning for descending of the price and changing price direction. Right now the first warning for descending of the price (in the same direction with harmonic pattern’s signal) is breaking of the supportive level of 106.667.


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## Growth Aces

*USD/JPY: BOJ Ready To Do More*

*************** Trading Positions

EUR/USD: short at 1.2530, target 1.2350, stop-loss 1.2610

USD/CHF: long at 0.9620, target 0.9750, stop-loss 0.9550

NZD/USD: short at 0.7800, target 0.7550, stop-loss 0.7920

EUR/GBP: short at 0.7850, target 0.7670, stop-loss 0.7920

AUD/NZD: long at 1.1220, target 1.1500, stop-loss 1.1080



EUR/USD: Eyes on ISM today and Draghi tomorrow.

(the target of our short position is at 1.2350)

    New orders for US factory goods dropped 0.6% mom. August's orders were slightly revised to show a 10.0% mom fall instead of the previously reported 10.1% decline. September’s reading was in line with expectations. The decline in orders, which was led by aircraft, machinery, capital goods and computers and electronic products, is likely to be short-lived. A survey of national factories published on Monday showed a strong rebound in new order growth and backlogs in October.
    St. Louis Fed's President James Bullard who a few weeks ago proposed further monetary stimulus said on Tuesday the central bank in fact made the right decision last week in closing a bond-buying program. Bullard added that he was optimistic on U.S. economic growth due to currently low longer-term borrowing costs and the drop in oil prices, both "bullish" factors that could stimulate spending and expansion.
    Republicans won in places where Democrats were favored in U.S. midterm election on Tuesday, like a Senate race in North Carolina, pulled out victories where the going was tough, like a Senate battle in Kansas, and swept a number of governors' races in states where Democrats were favored, like Illinois. Republicans needed six seats to win control of the 100-member Senate, and by late evening they had seven.
    October’s Euro zone final composite PMI rose to 52.1 from 52.0 in September and was marginally lower than the flash reading of 52.2. Today’s data point to barely positive quarterly GDP growth of around 0.2%. The German composite PMI was revised down to 53.9 from the flash estimate of 54.3 and the French composite PMI was revised slightly up to 48.2 from the flash estimate of 48.0.
    Euro zone PMI showed that job losses were reported for the first time in almost a year. Cuts at service providers were only partly offset by a marginal gain in manufacturers’ payroll numbers. Moreover, PMI suggested that weaker market conditions and efforts to boost sales led to a solid reduction in selling prices in October.
    Eurozone retail sales fell by 1.3% mom in September following a downwardly-revised growth in August, from 1.2% to 0.9%.
    Today’s Euro zone numbers provided more evidence that the euro-zone economy remained weak in the third quarter. A threat of economic stagnation and rising deflationary risks will add to pressure on the ECB to do more to stimulate demand.
    The EUR/USD broke above the resistance level at 1.2565 (38.2% of 1.2770-1.2439) on Tuesday. However, the EUR depreciated again in the European session, in part because of weak PMI and retail sales data in the Euro zone and the EUR/USD trades below 1.2500. Investors are focused on ECB and US payrolls now. At *************** we keep the target of our short position at 1.2350.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.2591 (hourly high Oct 31), 1.2614 (low Oct 23), 1.2617 (high Oct 31)

Support: 1.2439 (low Nov 3), 1.2431 (low Aug 22, 2012), 1.2342 (low Aug 21, 2012)



GBP/USD hit 1-year low after PMI data

(our long position reached the stop-loss at 1.5920)

    The GBP/USD fell to a 1-year low at 1.5869 on Wednesday after a PMI services index sank to a 17-month low of 56.2 in October from 58.7 in September. Composite PMI, a broader gauge of the economy that combines services, manufacturing and construction industries, fell to 56.4 from 58.1, its lowest level since June 2013.
    After GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in the third quarter, a 0.5% expansion is currently being signalled by the surveys for the fourth quarter. The surveys also point to lower inflation in coming months. The PMI showed average prices charged for goods and services fell for the first time since July 2012.
    The meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled for Thursday. It is widely expected that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged. The soft PMI number is a boost for the BOE MPC’s dovish majority who are in no hurry to raise interest rates.
    Our long position on the GBP/USD reached its stop-loss level at 1.5920. The GBP is likely to remain relatively strong vs. other major currencies. However, in the opinion of *************** no positions on the GBP/USD are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.5928 (low Nov 3), 1.6023 (10-dma), 1.6027 (high Nov 3)

Support: 1.5869 (low Nov 5), 1.5854 (low Nov 12, 2013), 1.5776 (low Sep 13, 2013)



USD/JPY: Kuroda ready to do more

(we have placed our bid offer at 113.90)

    Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who shocked financial markets last week by expanding a massive monetary stimulus programme, said the central bank is ready to do more to hit its 2% target. He said: “There are no limits to our policy tools, including purchases of Japanese government bonds.”
    On the JPY's plunge against the USD after last week's monetary expansion, Kuroda reiterated his view that overall, a weak JPY was positive for Japan's economy. He is the opinion that while some households and service-sector firms could feel the pinch from higher import costs, a weak JPY tends to push up export volumes and boosts profits of Japanese companies with overseas operations.
    Kuroda’s comments sent the USD/JPY above Monday’s peak of 114.21. The nearest barrier is seen at 114.79 a retreat is likely at this level. We have placed our bid at 113.90 and we see a possibility of a rise even to 117.95 (high, October 2007).

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 114.79 (daily High Nov 7, 2007), 114.82 (daily high Nov 5, 2007), 115.00 (psychological level)

Support: 113.42 (session low Nov 5), 113.15 (low Nov 4), 112.42 (low Nov 3)



NZD/USD: The target is 0.7550

(we have taken short position, the target is 0.7550)

    The NZD/USD ended yesterday’s New York session at 0.7810 after jobless rate had fallen to 5.4%, its lowest since the first quarter of 2009, from 5.6% in the previous month. The reading was in line with expectations. The number of people employed rose by 0.8% qoq vs. the median forecast of 0.6%. The labour cost index, rose 0.5% qoq, as forecast. The NZD/USD reached a day’s high at 0.7842 in Asia today.
    Investors were also eyeing Fonterra auction on Tuesday. Fonterra's GDT Price Index dipped 0.3% vs. a rise by 1.4% at the previous sale. A total of 45,499 tonnes was sold at the latest auction, falling 10.5% from the previous one. The dairy sector generates more than 7% of New Zealand's GDP. The next auction is scheduled for November 18.
    We used the higher level to get short on the NZD/USD. We have taken short position at 0.7800, in line with our trading strategy. Our target is 0.7550 and stop-loss is 0.7920. The nearest support levels are at 0.7711 (low Nov 4) and 0.7700 (low Nov 3).

Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 0.7842 (session high Nov 5), 0.7959 (high Oct 28), 0.8000 (psychological level)

Support: 0.7711 (low Nov 4), 0.7700 (low Nov 3), 0.7670 (low Aug 5, 2013)


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## PipSafe

USD/JPY during the recent weeks had a strong ascending trend and could record the top price of 119.000. Right now the mentioned top price is one of the most important and nearest resistance level in front of the price that by breaking of it, the price finds the potential to reach the important resistance level of 119.340 or 120.900 .Price has been stopped from more ascend by reaching to the round resistance level of 119.000(the reason for some buyers to exit their trades) and by making a top price (Shooting Star) in daily time frame has started to reform.

According to the formed price movements in the chart, between the bottom price of 101.061 and top price of 119.000,there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 50 and 200 that with completion of the D point there will be a warning for descending of price.Stoch indicator in daily time frame is in saturation buy area and in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about the potential of descending during the next candles. One of the important warnings for decreasing of is breaking of supportive level of 117.345 (Low level of price changes in the previous daily candle).


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## T0BY

risk 9 : reward 23


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## DeepState

Underlying the Japanese Export Numbers:



- FT


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## daytradeprofit

*usdjpy  technical analysis*

The USD/JPY suffered big losses, it’s down aggressive from. Technical supports were wiped out during this bearish onslaught. In addition break down 118.20 area does not precursor good news for the pair next stop should be at 116.70 area while break down this support should lead to 114.60 
In the other hand if 118.20 will hold on daily close so the price should go to .....
http://www.*********************/


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## notting

How much fricken Fed Tightening did they have priced in for Gds sake.
I mean really! The Jap is now stronger than it was in Nov 2014 against the US after it has gone negative on interest rates and has more debt to GDP than the rest of the world and deflation.:dunno:

That's a death spiral you do not want to be on.  But OK up ya go Jap$. (Yep looking for a turn to trade it down)


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## Trembling Hand

notting said:


> The Jap is now stronger than it was in Nov 2014 against the US after it has gone negative on interest rates and has more debt to GDP than the rest of the world and deflation.:dunno:




 Yeah you get the pleasure of paying the Japanese government for holding their debt!!


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## CanOz

Nasty spike down this morning would have caught some off guard.



> 08:35USD/JPY Falls over 100pips below  ¥104 (related JPY/USD USD/JPY) - Source TradeTheNews.com






> Now USDJPY move blamed on fat finger: " A sell order meant for a higher level was placed with wrong big figure, 103 instead of 105"



 - Zerohedge


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## cogs

I was driving at the time but my EA caught the move on two pairs.

Most pairs are 'algo busy' and very jumpy. 

Looking forward to see what comes from Kuroda, we may see some great opportunities.


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## cogs

Wasn't quite as many opportunities as I wanted, algos were making a mess of Kuroda's decision, I can't see there being much of a fade at least in USDJPY.

As we were before the news event again targeting parity and beyond!


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## daytradeprofit

*USD/JPY Price Technical Analysis Forecast *
usd jpy price action:  In the bigger picture, price actions from high are seen as a corrective pattern – for those of you, who stay in positions, the direction now is mixed up with the momentum,  you should pay attention to the upper side  – 114.60 +_  and 109-109 those levels are extremely vulnerability
In the short term, we can see the corrective move from the lows, as long as usdjpy will stay above 114.60 the direction is up, while in the middle we have  110.90 109.30 108.20 106.20-70 104.80-105.30
Strong support at 101.80


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## OmegaTrader

daytradeprofit said:


> *USD/JPY Price Technical Analysis Forecast *
> usd jpy price action:  In the bigger picture, price actions from high are seen as a corrective pattern – for those of you, who stay in positions, the direction now is mixed up with the momentum,  you should pay attention to the upper side  – 114.60 +_  and 109-109 those levels are extremely vulnerability
> In the short term, we can see the corrective move from the lows, as long as usdjpy will stay above 114.60 the direction is up, while in the middle we have  110.90 109.30 108.20 106.20-70 104.80-105.30
> Strong support at 101.80
> View attachment 70106



Can you explain to me in more detail, I don't understand.


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## Dutchy3

For those with a monthly view on USDJPY. Weekly close signalling entry for LONG


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## Mirus3000

profit target 111.845   stop-losss 112 738.


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## Mirus3000

Sell 112.579  Stop 112 .955  Target 110 .670


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## Mirus3000

Sell 112650   Stop 113 480   Target 110 600


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## peter2

USDJPY long:  Sorry for this late post, but as you'll notice, the markets have moved due to the remarks by new Fed Chair Powell. 

This USDJPY long was the best setup of these four according to my 4H trend rules. The 4H trend on UJ was up and there was a good BO level to go long.  
UJ Bought at 107.11, iSL at 106.80 (31p).  
UJ Sold at 107.58 at +1.5R as these price spikes on "remarks" can be short lived. 

There was a good short on the GBP but I was out when that triggered. 
Gold short was tempting but the trend was unclear.


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## Fxortrader

USDJPY THESE TYPES OF 110.76 GEOPOLITIC NEWS PRESSURE


The USDJPY pair turned weaker after briefly strengthening early in the Asian session, on the weekend, Friday (3/22/2019). Negative news about global geopolitics weighed on risk assets and made investors divert funds to the Japanese yen as a safe haven currency.

USDJPY is trading at 110.76, down 2 pips from the overnight close, even though the pair had touched the highest level of 110.88.

A new wave of risk aversion is gripping the Asian market amid the latest US-North Korea problems. The US tightened sanctions to North Korea after the failed Trump-Kim Jong un agreement in Vietnam. Two Chinese companies are penalized for doing business with North Korea.

While other news that boosted safe-haven sentiment was China reportedly wearing an anti-dumping policy on several products from the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, causing higher yields on US Treasury.

In the US session later tonight, market attention turned to Markit manufacturing reports and the service sector PMI, existing home sales, and wholesale inventories, for market drivers.


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## cogs

What a struggle!


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## cogs

On the train baby, next stop 1.12


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## cogs

Got off the train at the obvious top.


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## cogs

We might see a gradual push back to the gaps through the coming weeks, maybe even days.


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## Cam019

USDJPY Wyckoff building on the 1 minute chart.


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## Cam019




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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


>




You get in Cam?


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## Cam019

Yeah mate, a little lower than I'd like as I was setting up my trading evaluation account. Whoops! Here is the entry:


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## Roller_1

Cam019 said:


> Yeah mate, a little lower than I'd like as I was setting up my trading evaluation account. Whoops! Here is the entry:



Nice drop from your level, hopefully keeps going for you


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## CityIndex

USD/JPY is gaining after the latest round of data showed improved consumer confidence in the US. 

We published an article on the pair earlier today as a breakout towards the 5-year high looks like it could be on the cards.


----------

