# AIO - Asciano Limited



## Nicks (9 August 2007)

Hi All

Just thought i'd kick this one off so it has its own legs since the TOL split.

What does everyone think about this one? Im fairly confident with it and will hold onto the shares since the split. Seems to have picked up many of the excellent industry competetive positions from the split. Will wait with keeness to see what sort of dividend we get and growth strategies that Rowsthorn will pursue.


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## nikkothescorpio (10 October 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Seems to have a very good market position - all but a monopoly - seems a very solid bet considering the general sentiments for major infracture/transport growth well into the future.

Seems to be crawling back AUG losses but had a downward trend well established prior to this.

Would welcome anyone elses thoughts too.


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## blaze87 (29 October 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

any1 here knows why Asciano wants to gobble up BRAMBLES LIMITED
BRAMBLES LIMITED is 4 times bigger than Asciano, and from my limited knowledge, it usually does not bode well when a smaller companies want to take over a bigger 1


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## Ken (30 October 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

This is just a Toll/Patricks related get a monopoly on the market type play.

AIO stake in Brambles is debt funded. So they are paying interest on there 4.1 percent stake on Brambles.

They picked it up well below the price of Brambles is now.

So they have effectively made a massive profit on paper.  Yet AIO share price has been punished.

If AIO is to sell there stakein Brambles, as a AIO shareholder, I would be very happy. As they have effectively made a good 30 % on there investmentment.

AIO share price has been battered due to people not beleiving the takeover is going to occur.

AIO is going to struggle to get the finance I have heard, as they are already to the tilt carrying all of TOLL holdings debt which was spun out in this new company.

AIO may just be a decoy for TOLL to slide into taking over Brambles.

Who knows. But brambles is differently a possible takeover target.

Why would AIO want Brambles?  No idea, I did read that if AIO took over Brambles it would be running at a loss, but it would be take effective for the company.

From a far, it appears AIO has too much debt to take on already though.


anyone have 100 % accurate truth, i am stll putting pieces together


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## BHP (31 October 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Hi All,

I am fairly new to shares but have learned alot from this great forum.  

I have been reading some of the threads regarding volume and taking a stab at this one I think this stock may be ready to turn around. 

It has support around $8 from mid August lows.

Volume has increased over the last 10 trading days, mainly down however the last 4 days seem a little different.

28/10 - it stopped its slide, got under $8 and finished above on high volume.

29/10 - closed near the open on average volume.

30/10 - closed on the bottom on average volume.

31/10 - went up all day and closed on the high on above average volume. 

Perhaps all the sellers are done and now mainly buyers left? Will watch with interest tomorrow but if the run up continues I may jump in around $8.45.  

Any comments from those who understand Volume appreciated ( or anyone at all  ).


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## shinobi346 (1 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

From what Ive been reading I've always felt it is TOL that is the one more interested in aquiring BXB. 

From their last AGM, Little reiterated "Toll remains very interested in the significant value creation and optimisation strategy generated by integrating pallets into the supply chain"

They already have a pallet business in china so I can see them merging the number 1 in it in the world together and integrating it into their logistics business.


But who knows for sure whos going to act first - if anyone is. 

Before TOL and AIO bought a stake in BXB the sp kept sliding so it works for me...


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## Jack_Junior (7 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Ken said:


> This is just a Toll/Patricks related get a monopoly on the market type play.
> 
> AIO stake in Brambles is debt funded. So they are paying interest on there 4.1 percent stake on Brambles.
> 
> ...





Howdy all,
I work for Asciano and am led to believe that as a Toll spinoff, Asciano actually aquired Patricks debt free (all debt going to Toll). 
Toll is definitely the one more interested in a "friendly takeover" of BXB but at the end of the day Paul Little has advised that he "would much prefer a friendly takeover rather than things turning nasty" (as the Patrick takeover did)

A long term stock for you all to look at rather than this group could be KIL.
Chris Corrigon is now on the board (as is Maurice James and many more of the ex Patricks hierachy) there and they own a company called P&O Transport. Not too long ago they aquired an Asian company as a stepping stone into the Asian market and have also been mentioned in talks of buying into / taking over Queensland Rail.

May pay for you to read up on them - KIL


Hope this helps


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## Ferret (28 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

AIO has taken a real caning since listing.  Starting to look very interesting at current prices.  Anyone else think this might be oversold?

Ferret


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## BHP (28 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Yeah, I think it's oversold. Bought some yesterday, may buy some more in the coming days. 

It's a company that operates in an area with high barriers to entry.
It has few competitiors so can easily pass on rising fuel/labour costs to it's customers.
All the miners are ramping up production so business should increase.
Ports are getting busier both import and export.
CEO Mark Rowsthorn owns over 9% of the stock, so his goals are aligned with mine, for the long term.

Has it hit bottom? who knows. It's a long term investment for me though so i don't really care if it drops more from here in the short term. 

Bought some a month ago but got stopped out at cost. This time I am not leaving a stop on it, I plan to hold for many years.


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## michael_selway (29 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 0.0 6.3 15.3 22.6 
DPS 0.0 0.0 46.0 50.5 *

It has nice growth but a bit expensive

thx

MS


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## Ferret (29 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Still trending down.  I'm watching for this to reverse, then I will probably get onboard.

They are having an investor briefing on 11 Dec.  Will talk about their intentions for the Brambles holding and the funding costs.  Could be good news or bad.  Any leakage of the news might show in the price leading up to this.


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## BHP (29 November 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

A bit early to say but seems to have bounced. Currently going back up on reasonable volume. See how it closes today.


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## Ken (5 December 2007)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

At $7.11 how do we analyse AIO?

Maybe overpriced from the beginning and coming back to some value.

Its definitely in a down trend, is there a lot of conjecture over the ports with labour coming into government?  Not sure??

But AIO does seem to have taken an absolute battering.


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## Muschu (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Any comments, please, on today's performance?  AIO has dropped about 5% as at 1pm -- significantly more than the market downturn and without any significant announcement.  Thanks


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## Tristo (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Certainly taking a battering, and on no news. I can't seem to understand it either. It's been the perfect stock to short it seems.


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## wildmanchris (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

For the last three months this share has dropped more than the ASX if it has a down day, and has continued to trend down with only BRIEF signs that it has made a bounce but no luck on any of those attempts.   

I work with a guy that has a huge paper loss on this one by believing that the fundamentals are strong and will help it recover.  The market doesnt seem to have faith in their high debt levels.


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## Muschu (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Thanks.
Looks like it's been on a steady decline from over $11.50 6 months ago to as low as $5.24 -- and it's only 30c above that now.
Curious.  I gues it can keep going down and down and......


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## wildmanchris (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Who knows where this one will go - it dosent show any signs of stemming the flow.  

Good luck to all who continue to hold.


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## chilliaa (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

In my opinion you may find that so called 'safe' infrastructure investments turn out to the be 'internet' bubble of this decade.
Just because a company opperates assets with a semi monopoly doesnt mean that the company is 'safe' or that its shares can be purchased at any price.

With AIO i think its debt levels may well come to haunt them in the years to come, that and its insistence of paying out high dividends.  During relaxed credit markets with low IR this may have been a possibility, but those times are over.

I know i my opinion is very much against the views of most analysts.  But consider the following issues:

Whilst in the short term (next couple of years) AIO does not have significant debt financing obligations and its interest rate expense is reasonably hedged, what happens afterwards??????
This is an infrastructure play based on a calculation of present value over the next 20yrs+.  
If long term interest rates are on a cyclical upturn (the reverse of the 1980's to now), this company is going to get decimated.  Current EBITDA interest cover is only 2.2x, if FUTURE interest rates increase after the expiration of current interest rate hedges, look to see MASSIVE revisions of 'fair value' based on discounted cash flow analysis.

Sorry guys but this is another stock i am avoiding, at least until its share price drops so that i get a margin of safety to compensate me for this risk.


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## blaze87 (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



chilliaa said:


> In my opinion you may find that so called 'safe' infrastructure investments turn out to the be 'internet' bubble of this decade.
> Just because a company opperates assets with a semi monopoly doesnt mean that the company is 'safe' or that its shares can be purchased at any price.
> 
> With AIO i think its debt levels may well come to haunt them in the years to come, that and its insistence of paying out high dividends.  During relaxed credit markets with low IR this may have been a possibility, but those times are over.
> ...




hey chillia, interesting post there. so u assume that interest rates in the future will be higher than what it is going to be now?
 i know it's useless trying to guess interest rates, but what is the factor behind the reason for continued increased interest rates?

personally i think interest rates might rise this year and maybe next year, from then afters it decrease to a more reasonable value of maybe 3-6%


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## chilliaa (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Just the belief that things move in cycles, look at the resources boom its a cycle, look at the 1960's sharemarket, nobody anticipated higher inflation, look at the post 1990's sharemarket, nobody forecast a long stretch of low inflation.

I agree with you that its very hard to forecast interest rates, but at the end of the day for a company like AIO that is being valued based on low long term interest rates, i ask you, what if this doesnt happen, what if interest rates go up in the long term.
What insurance policy (if you are a long term shareholder) do you have to hedge the risk?
I am not going to pay current market prices, given that i cant get insurance.  On the other hand if the prices really plumited, then the risk of future higher interest rates would be 'priced in'.


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## chilliaa (11 February 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

This doesnt apply to only AIO, if you are really a long term based investor (and not because you are a trader who gets stuck with a stock out of the money which then becomes an 'investment'), the first issue is preservation of capital, the next is return on the capital.

What many investors forget, is that an over priced share is nearly as hazadous to long term wealth as a share in a 'weak' company.
Thats why i actually quite like Macquarie Bank at the moment, i have no idea where its share price will be in the near future.  But what i do like is so long as the company doesnt go bankrupt, the current price is valuing the company for low future growth.  If Macquarie does maintain its long term earnings growth then its a double bonus, if not and it goes through a period of below average growth, the current price already reflects this.
So in a sense i have some form of 'insurance'.


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## Nicks (4 March 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Asciano just had a single trade for 1,000,000. It has to be a sell one would think. Down 15% again just today!

I know MD Mark Rowsthorn said in the report that he has no significant Margin Leverage and is not under threat of getting a Margin Call - but that's what Eddy Groves said also!

Seriously, Mark Rowsthorn has so much of AIO that if he did get that call AIO would TANK similar to ABS (and by the way the AIO SP has tanked this is the sort of conditions perfect for a Margin call).

But, just saying Mark Rowsthorn is not at risk (and usually when they feel the need to say this one questions why) is not good enough. What about other directors? would be interesting to see if therte are any substantial holder announcements soon. A sell of 1,000,000 shares would be $40 Million.

Thoughts?


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## IFocus (4 March 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Gapped down on open and now hammered 18% so far this morning  some thing is seriously wrong......I wonder if the hedge fund / short selling excuse will get trotted out again?


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## chops_a_must (4 March 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



IFocus said:


> Gapped down on open and now hammered 18% so far this morning  some thing is seriously wrong......I wonder if the hedge fund / short selling excuse will get trotted out again?




After hearing their report yesterday, I was surprised it didn't get smashed even further.

I'm not sure how this company can survive with the way it is losing money, hand over fist. It's lost 2/3rds of its value in about 9 months. Something seriously wrong indeed.


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## waz (13 March 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

AIO has released their full half year report today (last night), and obviously the market does not like it.

Im quickly going through it, but cant really find anything more damaging then when we already know. Can anyone else see it.

AIO has lost more than yesterdays speculative gains. Someone has seen something they dont like, but what?

I wonder what would have happened if they released it before 10am yesterday.

I wish I had more time to read these reports, grrr.


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## Muschu (22 April 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Hi
On my understanding, at today's date, 

ABN Amro rates AIO as Buy - Target price is $6.75 
Merrill Lynch rates AIO as Buy - Target price is $7.50 

Any comment on this?  Big gap from current price.  Can these recommendations be given any credence?
Opinions appreciated.

Regards

R


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## Nicks (22 April 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Toll spun off most of their debt into Asciano - I wouldnt think this was a good thing in the current economic climate.


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## Muschu (22 April 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Nicks said:


> Toll spun off most of their debt into Asciano - I wouldnt think this was a good thing in the current economic climate.




Thanks Nicks.  I was having a very "light" re-think on AIO but the debt level issue seems to be an impediment.  I don't have AIO, do have TOL and am probably more inclined to add to the latter at some point.
I appreciate your comments.
R


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## Bruza (8 July 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

What on earth is happening now!

It should be a darling that everyone wants a bit of, with the assets, (almost) 
monopoly, etc, etc.


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## urgalzmine (8 July 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Bruza said:


> What on earth is happening now!
> 
> It should be a darling that everyone wants a bit of, with the assets, (almost)
> monopoly, etc, etc.




not quite my friend... TOL put all its debt into this company when it bought Patricks, it has alot of assets but lots of debt as well


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## Bruza (8 July 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Yea i realise that but, IT'S assets

TO-days plunge?

Insane!!

This Co has hard to replicate assets, which should elevate it above today's fiasco.


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## CAB SAV (8 July 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Market freaked when AIO advised they propose(need) to do a rights issue(1/2) to raise $1bill.  in order to fund growth & reduce debt. Oversold.


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## mshepherd (4 August 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

TPG Capital and Global Infrastructure Partners. Proposed to buy AIO at $4.40  trading halt requested after another 13% jump in price. currently at $4.70 above the offer price, which suggests opinions are leaning towards a higher price offer.


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## Sultan of Swing (6 August 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I've just been having a look at the company report released today.

2 questions....

I was under the impression that a company report had to have a list of the top 20 shareholders in it, is that correct?

Secondly, If it's in there, I can't find it. Have I missed it or am I right in saying that its not in there?

Thanks


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## copper_hot (30 October 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Anyone watching this? Down to 2.05 today..

In my view another takeover offer by TPG is very credible.. the last offer which was subject to due diligence (and was subsequently denied by asciano's board) was for 4.50 from memory.. 

News also that TPG's CEO is on his way to Australia this weekend.. apparently for the melbourne cup (through Myer connection), but I highly doubt that the CEO of one of the worlds biggest private equity houses would come to melbourne for a horse race during one of the most brutal economic conditions of our generation.

Also coming up is asset sales that will raise approx. $1 billion that will no doubt be used to pay down the company's massive debt load.

Has many contracts denominated in the USD so a weakening AUD will translate positively FY09.

I would love to hear everyones thoughts because I am very interested in jumping onto this puppy?


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## cbrendan (31 October 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



copper_hot said:


> Anyone watching this? Down to 2.05 today..
> 
> In my view another takeover offer by TPG is very credible.. the last offer which was subject to due diligence (and was subsequently denied by asciano's board) was for 4.50 from memory..
> 
> ...




Hey mate, 

I bought in when it got to 2.06 and I'm thinking similar things. 

Although the figures arn't all good, I still think there is easy money to be made at the prices it is now.

Any other opinions?


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## awg (31 October 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

from memory Rowsthorn had a very large stake, almost a blocking stake, could be wrong there...but I dont think he wanted to sell last time, cause he would realize a big loss.

I sold out ages ago at $4.85, due to debt level and the stock was tanking.

I reckon Rowsthorn would be a unable to prevent with SP as is,
 sorrry not sure of his stake, should be on ASX website


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## bluboy (31 October 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



awg said:


> from memory Rowsthorn had a very large stake, almost a blocking stake, could be wrong there...but I dont think he wanted to sell last time, cause he would realize a big loss.
> 
> I sold out ages ago at $4.85, due to debt level and the stock was tanking.
> 
> ...




I'm pretty sure he still has 71million shares. (With 1.1million options with an expiry price of $8.43 in 2012)

I wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to get a $8.50 buy price from TPG and co.  If they will get it, while the share price is hovering around $2 with a bleak outlook....  Goodluck to 'em!


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## Sean K (12 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Cripes, absolutely garotted yesterday.

Not many worse than this over the past year, except BNB maybe.

Why was I not short....


*Share sell-off as analyst attack savages Asciano*
Blair Speedy | November 12, 2008 

ASCIANO last night rushed to reassure investors that it was under no pressure to refinance debt.

This followed the port and railways infrastructure group's share price crashing to levels that left the company effectively "worthless" according to one analyst.


And how the hell does this analyst keep his job:



> The sell-off was sparked by a massive downgrade from Citigroup analyst Sanjay Magotra, who slashed his target price on the stock from $6.08 to just 82c and reversed his trading recommendation from "buy" to "sell".




So, up until yesterday, this idiot had a valuation of $6.08 and a BUY recommendation on it.


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## Aussiejeff (12 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



kennas said:


> Cripes, absolutely garotted yesterday.
> 
> Not many worse than this over the past year, except BNB maybe.
> 
> ...




Sounds like a similar assessment by some analysts of GM in the US - rating their shares as basically worth *$US 0.00*. No wonder shareholders are deserting both in droves... would you hold your cards or fold under those odds?

Quotes by Asciano to the ASX that they "have no idea" why the share price has plunged must have their heads stuck firmly where the sun don't shine!


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## Sean K (14 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

If I was thinking clearly, that sell off may have been a good opportunity to catch a falling knife as it looked obviously overdone. Nice hindsight kennas....

Someone bought some at 50c. Back up 150% from the low in 2 says... lol

Still, might just be one of those that bounces around on rumours for a few days before going into administration....who knows in this crazy world.


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## Ruincity (14 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Kenna's I know a lot of ppl who made ridiculous amounts of money out of this stock..  
Absolutely amazing falling knife.. 
I got on it a couple of times but was too stupid, cautious, forgetful and slow to make any money...
Long story.. 
Yes ppl have had a field day for the past 3 days.. 
Day 1 was amazing, 2 was almost as good and there was still some solid gains to be made today if you played your cards right...


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## mfsperth (18 November 2008)

*AIO Asciano*

The role of Citibank in last week's bagging of Asciano leading to a 60% price drop deserves to be questioned. The chairman of Asciano has repudiated the Citibank opinion. 
Just as with the ratings agencies we need regulation of the stock predicters.
You cannot be a public predicter and also be trading shares on behalf of  clients, because you almost certainly know in advance what the likely effect of your pronouncement is going to be.
Citibank sits in loco parentis for the US Federal Reserve on the Bank for International Settlements, so in its actions it needs to live up to the very important quasi-government role it has been granted.


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## oldblue (18 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

"Chinese walls" are supposed to prevent such conflicts of interest. But we all have our opinions on their effectiveness, or otherwise.


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## eric35 (18 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

AIO has been good to me lately. I made quite a bit of money day trading it, based on my Bias Indicator. 

Fair way down today, may take a few days to move up again.


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## furiouswilly (19 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



eric35 said:


> AIO has been good to me lately. I made quite a bit of money day trading it, based on my Bias Indicator.
> 
> Fair way down today, may take a few days to move up again.




hey eric35 can u tell me how to make money in day trade? wat is bias indicator? n how do i know which stock to buy?


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## eric35 (19 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Hi Willy
It is rather difficult to tel you how tyo make money in day trading here, in such a short space.


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## tigerboi (21 November 2008)

*Re: Asciano will be broken up*

The road transport section of the old patricks division of car carrying,linehaul division is being sold to linfox,they been around kicking tyres the last few weeks,not a done deal yet but looks likely soon...tb


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## Hussla (22 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Im spewing, I sold this stock the other day in panic as I watched the prices plummet, drops to 0.84 on Friday and then closes at under 1.40! 

Unbelievable!


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## eric35 (23 November 2008)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I generally hold this stock only for a day or max 2, use it to make quick profits and get out. It is a good stock for day trading, except you have to buy equities, as the margin is 100%.


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## tigerboi (13 January 2009)

*Re:Linfox cashing up & circling asciano for a stake*



tigerboi said:


> The road transport section of the old patricks division of car carrying,linehaul division is being sold to linfox,they been around kicking tyres the last few weeks,not a done deal yet but looks likely soon...tb




keep an eye on this as linfox has been selling out of bank of qld & some of aio subs are selling down as well,ive never owned this but from a trading angle the current price will look attractive to lindsay fox...tb


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## eric35 (13 January 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I bought AIO again, but purely as a trading stock. I have no intention to hold it for the longer term. With a bit of luck it will head up to $1.50 soon again.


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## tigerboi (14 January 2009)

*Re: Linfox cashing up & circling asciano for a stake*



tigerboi said:


> The road transport section of the old patricks division of car carrying,linehaul division is being sold to linfox,they been around kicking tyres the last few weeks,not a done deal yet but looks likely soon...tb






tigerboi said:


> keep an eye on this as linfox has been selling out of bank of qld & some of aio subs are selling down as well,ive never owned this but from a trading angle the current price will look attractive to lindsay fox...tb




just spoke with my mate that works at AIO & the port & rail they will hang onto the rest is up for grabs,linfox are to take a 8% stake...good idea to watch closely especially the sub notices coming into bank of queensland as linfox continue to cash up...tb


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## tigerboi (23 January 2009)

*Re: AIO-sub $1,sub 0.75 here we come*

As expected Asciano has crashed back through the $1.00 mark as the subs sell out,same over at BOQ as linfox sell out to buy an 8% stake in AIO...

Looks like a price of around 0.60c before all subs stop selling...tb


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## pontypud (2 February 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

has linfox actually bought an 8% interest,i beleve at one stage asciano were looking at linfox themselves.


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## tigerboi (2 February 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



pontypud said:


> has linfox actually bought an 8% interest,i beleve at one stage asciano were looking at linfox themselves.




keep watching the BOQ sub notices...linfox cashing out to buy into AIO...

toll looking at linfox around 2011...tb


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## george46 (2 March 2009)

*george46*

hi im new to this site  where to we go from here whith  aio wiil stabolise or not any views to itim in  it deep


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## tigerboi (2 March 2009)

*Re:asciano is in big trouble*



george46 said:


> hi im new to this site where to we go from here whith aio wiil stabolise or not any views to itim in it deep




Things look very bad for asciano even if they do sell some assets they owe way too much money & now that its seen sub 50c it looks like a quick slide down.

still hasnt made a profit in 18 months & a fire sale is most likely imo...tb


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## Mc Gusto (16 March 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Announcement. AIO have been good to me but i bought on Friday! Still I wasn't aware that this was coming i was buying more on an the fact that i felt there was still value in the stock and that they had been harshly shortened at a point there late last year.
interesting to see how they perform over the next few days.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25192771-643,00.html

thanks

gusto


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## CapnBirdseye (16 March 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Nice work!  I have been thinking of getting back in on AIO, I think it might be a bit late for the current run - deals like this have a habbit of falling through.  My thoughs are that inflated SP due to rumour and speculation a is real profit.  One annoucement to the contary can do some real damage.

Good luck!


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## Family_Guy (16 March 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I bought last month in the 60's and topped up nicely last week in the 40's and sold the lot today at 87.5, so i'm happy. My only real reasoning to sell today was i thought this might have been just a one day thing after an announcement. I remember once holding ABC at 1.10 or something and they made an announcement to sell their US stuff, and the last 45mins of the day it went up to 1.90ish.......so greed got the better of me and i placed a sell at $2 only to watch it settle down 70 or 80c the next day or so. So i'm going to hope that this kinda does the same and hits 60c again so i can buy again, because i actually like the stock. But it can climb as much as it wants since i picked this for the March tipping comp and it started at 46c, so either way i'm cool.


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## Jez (2 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Family_Guy said:


> it can climb as much as it wants since i picked this for the March tipping comp and it started at 46c, so either way i'm cool.





All we need is a couple of good announcements and I'm sure I can get my $2.50 back.

QR is very interested in many parts of the company. *Rumor* has it that the top Execs and Upper Managment at QR (most of them X NSW SRA) have been give something on paper about when it acquires Pac Nat and how things will need to be integrated. Go figure, as QR are supposed to have an information "Ring Fence", so I'll believe it when I see it, because how can "Queenslanders" be so interested in something that was born in NSW!


----------



## Mc Gusto (16 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I hold AIO

with the movement yesterday and even greater movement today i sense something is coming. Have no insight to any deals but the northward direction of price makes me think that others do. One to watch over the next few days for sure.

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## eric35 (16 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Yes, I agree there could be something in the wind, probaly selling off some asset. Could even be that a takeover is coming up. price has been climbing steadily over last weeks.


----------



## Mc Gusto (20 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Street talk in today's Finnie has them rumoured to have a number of potential suitors with bids targeting $2 plus. Some ramping on the back of that today.

My opinion is that this could potentially take some time to agree and therefore could be a rocky ride for the next few weeks / months. Still I like to hold and will continue to.

Thanks

Gusto


----------



## eric35 (20 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I am hanging in there. I am sure that something is in the wind. It will take time, but they have good assets.

happy Trading


----------



## george46 (20 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



nikkothescorpio said:


> Seems to have a very good market position - all but a monopoly - seems a very solid bet considering the general sentiments for major infracture/transport growth well into the future.
> 
> Seems to be crawling back AUG losses but had a downward trend well established prior to this.
> 
> Would welcome anyone elses thoughts too.




wawww i was in dip but i came out  big time winner i wonder haw far will it go i hopee alot I am hanging in there


----------



## wonderrman (29 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I have posted a chart of Asciano below. It is obviously a very bad fundamental company but the chart is actually not to bad. I'm not sure about its future prospects and debt problems, but stocks that fall the most usually rise quite high on any hint of good news. The stock all ready has, but there could be further to come.

Resistence of $1.6 is there but hopefully is broken after this consolidation pattern evolves. Who knows how long this could take though and of course the pattern could be broken if the price falls to the other side, volume is not great. 

Haven't bought anything yet, but am watching from the side lines with keen iterest. 







 wonder.


----------



## Jez (29 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

And then???????????????

WTF was that post saying? I just fail to understand the message in it! Was it a Buy or Sell hint?

I bought at 44.5C. Am i a looser,  winner or WoodDuck?


----------



## wonderrman (29 April 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



> WTF was that post saying? I just fail to understand the message in it! Was it a Buy or Sell hint?




Think I made it pretty clear that I wouldn't be buying it until resistence is broken. Sorry next time I'll make sure I spell it out for you. Markets in general are **** so I'm cautious. 

Obviously you are a winner if you bought in at 40 or so cents back in march.

W.


----------



## Jez (8 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Bit of a rumble in the mountain yesterday and today.

I think some resistance is "cracking"! It went to 1.61 in a short after-open frenzy!

Looks like any news, causes a rumble with this.

Will it explode?


----------



## rajeev (8 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Jez said:


> Bit of a rumble in the mountain yesterday and today.
> 
> I think some resistance is "cracking"! It went to 1.61 in a short after-open frenzy!
> 
> ...




it has gone upto 1.625. without any explanation? perhaps bid for the assets known? above 1.70 will be good for me.


----------



## DB008 (8 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Have done a few trades on this one.

First time l entered this one, was around the .45 mark, sold around the .65 mark. Wish l had held on, but it was still choppy with the GFC still rocking the boat. Got back in around the 1.30 mark it's still going up. i'll probably hold through thick and thin on this one now.

Agree with Jez comments about Wonderrmanm, WTF???


----------



## stoxclimber (8 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

News in the AFR today, GIP has dropped out of a consortium with TPG over pricing differences, both companies still in talks with AIO. Agreement between GIP and AIO said to be unlikely because of pricing disagreements.


----------



## Jez (8 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



stoxclimber said:


> News in the AFR today, GIP has dropped out of a consortium with TPG over pricing differences, both companies still in talks with AIO. Agreement between GIP and AIO said to be unlikely because of pricing disagreements.




The way I read it is different. From what I understand, the rift is between GIP and TPG and GIP is probably going alone in the deal. (I think!)


----------



## Jez (30 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

May 09 Debt facility given a 6 month extension and the withholding of a Divi to reduce the principle is a plus. I think this is good news, but lets see how the rest of the market takes it on Monday!


----------



## skc (30 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Jez said:


> May 09 Debt facility given a 6 month extension and the withholding of a Divi to reduce the principle is a plus. I think this is good news, but lets see how the rest of the market takes it on Monday!




The May 09 facility was tiny at $200M-ish. There probably wasn't much problem to roll that over, but still a positive no doubt.

It still makes me laugh every time I see the phrase "monetisation process". That's a fancier name for selling asset when you are in distress. 

A man walks into a pawn shop wishing the monetise his watch...


----------



## Jez (30 May 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



skc said:


> "monetisation process". That's a fancier name for selling asset when you are in distress.
> 
> A man walks into a pawn shop wishing to monetise his watch...




I know if they sell a part of the Above Rail business, it will be a very different story than that expressed in your analogy. Before the Above rail stuff was purchased, it was mostly owned by State Govs (NSW Freight and NRC and only cost 2.4 Billion). As a Blue Collar worker in that industry, I have seen the radical efficiency improvements and the immense pressure streaming down from upper management to cut costs. The old "free lunch" went out the door years ago, and I had heaps of them in the Gov owned days.

Here is some news on how it is. The majority of workers are now facing new rounds of EA negotiations and there is no hope in hell of a pay rise this coming year. Knowing whats happening outside our box, we workers seem to be happy with that.

In the top 3 operating costs for Above Rail is Diesel prices and Wages. Look at the Diesel price difference from late last year to now. Something to consider as well!

Asciano does have fine income producing assets, but it's just a bit hard to get good profit from an economy in distress.


----------



## skc (1 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Jez said:


> I know if they sell a part of the Above Rail business, it will be a very different story than that expressed in your analogy. Before the Above rail stuff was purchased, it was mostly owned by State Govs (NSW Freight and NRC and only cost 2.4 Billion). As a Blue Collar worker in that industry, I have seen the radical efficiency improvements and the immense pressure streaming down from upper management to cut costs. The old "free lunch" went out the door years ago, and I had heaps of them in the Gov owned days.
> 
> Here is some news on how it is. The majority of workers are now facing new rounds of EA negotiations and there is no hope in hell of a pay rise this coming year. Knowing whats happening outside our box, we workers seem to be happy with that.
> 
> ...




I was merely referring to the spin management put on pull or partial asset sale. Many companies doing it in the current environment for a variety of reasons, but no one else calls it monetisation. It's asset sale.

Any sales to private equity players may further increase pressure to cut costs. On the other hand, if buyer is a super fund then may be better for the workers involved. Good luck with the industry.


----------



## gagaga (2 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

back to 1.6 lvl looks promising, ......................................................


----------



## Jez (15 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Some good news at last!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25635191-36418,00.html?from=public_rss


----------



## Kuri (15 June 2009)

*SPP*

You wouldn;t believe it but I was going to buy these today. I have read the announcement but I don't think it is very clear. Are we able to buy shares at the commencement of trading and be eligible for the SPP? It says may not be eligible? Who could I contact to clairify this? Someone at Asciano maybe?

Please help.

Kuri


----------



## Jez (15 June 2009)

*Re: SPP*



Kuri said:


> I have read the announcement but I don't think it is very clear. Who could I contact to clairify this? Someone at Asciano maybe?




I think you should get someone that can read English and translate it for you or don't tell us lies about you reading it! It quite clearly states in the text of the announcement an information line phone number:
1300 729 310
or
03 9415 4608


----------



## Kuri (15 June 2009)

*Re: SPP*



Jez said:


> I think you should get someone that can read English and translate it for you or don't tell us lies about you reading it! It quite clearly states in the text of the announcement an information line phone number:
> 1300 729 310
> or
> 03 9415 4608




情報をありがとうございます。 あなたに問題を引き起こして、本当にすみません. 私は英語を読むことができません。 次の時に、私は、だれが英語を読むことができるかをだれかに尋ねるつもりです。 ありがとうございます。

Kuri


----------



## Pimping (15 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Just ran Kuri's Japanese through a translator here it is

"Thanks for the input. I am really sorry that I cause a problem to you. I can't read English. At the time of next, I intend to ask somebody who can read English. Thank you. "


----------



## skc (15 June 2009)

*Re: SPP*



Kuri said:


> 情報をありがとうございます。 あなたに問題を引き起こして、本当にすみません. 私は英語を読むことができません。 次の時に、私は、だれが英語を読むことができるかをだれかに尋ねるつもりです。 ありがとうございます。
> 
> Kuri




Translation from Babelfish...

Information thank you. Causing problem in you, it is not completed truly. As for me it cannot read English. When being following, I, someone am the intention of asking someone can read English. Thank you.

Kuri - I agree it was somewhat unclear what the announcement was trying the clarify. However, given AIO wasn't traded today, it will _most likely _trade on an XE basis tomorrow. Best check with your broker however. Good luck.


----------



## Kuri (16 June 2009)

*Re: SPP*

Nice translations Guys, it never hurts to have a light hearted moment now and then. Even on a serious forum such as ASF. 

I was a bit concern about the capital raising thinking I had missed it. I read the two page report which didn't have contact details and when I was reading the 10 page report I got caught up on the sentence "Asciano expects to be granted a waiver by ASX so that, in determining securityholder entitlements for the entitlement offer, it *MAY* ignore any changes in securityholdings that occur after the commencement of the trading halt in stappled securities that commenced on 15 June 2009.." I was worried that I had missed the boat and didn't scroll down to the end of the document. After ringing the number graciously supplied by the rather blunt Jez they said that the shares should continue trading on the 17th and as long as you are a shareholder by 7pm on the 18th you will be entitles to the extra shares at $1.10 each (please seek your owwn confirmation).

The link is here
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=AIO

Does anybody have any idea how the price will go on opening? I know the $1.10 price will dilute most peoples holdings and theoretically lower the share price but will people wanting to get on board cause the share price to rise over the following two days followed by a fall after the new shares are traded?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts (blunt or otherwise)

Kuri
All the opinions expressed above are my own thoughts and please do your own research.


----------



## skyQuake (16 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Kuri said:


> "Asciano expects to be granted a waiver by ASX so that, in determining securityholder entitlements for the entitlement offer, it *MAY* ignore any changes in securityholdings that occur after the commencement of the trading halt in stappled securities that commenced on 15 June 2009.."




Think you have misunderstood that; it was in relation to loaned securities. ie for short selling, if u lent out stock before the 15th, the person that owns it gets the entitlement not you etc.



Kuri said:


> I was worried that I had missed the boat and didn't scroll down to the end of the document. After ringing the number graciously supplied by the rather blunt Jez they said that the shares should continue trading on the 17th and as long as you are a shareholder by 7pm on the 18th you will be entitles to the extra shares at $1.10 each (please seek your owwn confirmation).




Remember T+3 settlement. You need to be on the register by the 18th which means ex date was the 14th. The boat has already left


----------



## Dalen (16 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



skyQuake said:


> Remember T+3 settlement. You need to be on the register by the 18th which means ex date was the 14th. The boat has already left




With this in mind...  If an investor is currently on the register, then sold as soon as AIO came out of the TH would they still be on the register on the 18th?  I can forsee a massive share dump if that's the case.


----------



## Kuri (16 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



skyQuake said:


> Think you have misunderstood that; it was in relation to loaned securities. ie for short selling, if u lent out stock before the 15th, the person that owns it gets the entitlement not you etc.
> 
> 
> 
> Remember T+3 settlement. You need to be on the register by the 18th which means ex date was the 14th. The boat has already left




I am pretty sure that you are still on the register even with the T+3 scenario. The payment is a different issue but I will call my broker to double check so thanks for the heads up. 

Anybody else have any thoughts on the T+3 issue and if you are on the register at purchase date?


Kuri


----------



## Kuri (17 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Dalen said:


> With this in mind...  If an investor is currently on the register, then sold as soon as AIO came out of the TH would they still be on the register on the 18th?  I can forsee a massive share dump if that's the case.




I have chekced with my broker which gave different information to AIO and they said they are ex as of today so if you were not on the register last week you will not be eligble. I am not sure if your comments above are correct but it will be interesting to see the share price today.


----------



## skyQuake (17 June 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Sorry meant Record date was around the14th-ish, or during the halt. 

Basically all these deals are structured so that if you don't own the shares pre-halt, you won't be able to participate. Only noticeable exception is RIO


----------



## UMike (28 July 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Hi All.

Forgive me for this seemingly basic question but.  ......

I have been invited to participate in the *Asciano Security Purchase Plan*. 
I belive that these "Securiities" are  the same as the *Retail Entitlement Offer *??????

Note it is the term Securities rather than shares that is throwing me.


----------



## dan-o (29 July 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Securities are shares, just another word for the same thing. Note that the ASX stands for "Australian Securities Exchange"...
Any shares bought will be the same as those already owned


----------



## dan-o (29 July 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Does anyone know why Asciano wants to raise another $100 million in a retail offer after they just raised billions in the recent offer? They say to pay down debt, but does 100 mill make much difference compared to the billions they already raised??


----------



## UMike (29 July 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Thanks for your previous reply Dan. I didn't think I was losing my grasp on reality.

Dunno why they have done the second raising. My guess is that the last one was not fully subscribed.


----------



## cheeyeen (29 July 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



UMike said:


> Thanks for your previous reply Dan. I didn't think I was losing my grasp on reality.
> 
> Dunno why they have done the second raising. My guess is that the last one was not fully subscribed.




Actually it is the reverse, the retail shareholders applied for 177M worth of shares than they can take.  So they do a SPP for retail shareholders.  They do need a lot of cash to either pay down debt or for capital expenditure.  The share price go hammered because they have too much debt.  Any cash to reduce the debt, they will take it.  Good on the management for doing a SPP for retail shareholders rather than do another placement at the low price to benefit the "sophisticated investors".  

But I still think they are stupid for not raising the money earlier when the share price is much higher, or may be around the time when they were being approached.  They know the company is in trouble, and refuse to sell at a "cheap price", but still do nothing??..  I think it is all because of the CEO acting on self interest.. He doesn't want his holdings get diluted, but can't come up with the money to maintain his holdings in any case of capital raising. just hoping that things will get better.  Very selfish and big conflict of interest I would say.  Very weird as I read somewhere before about management having a big holding is a positive sign as the interest of shareholders and management are aligned.


----------



## Basilbro (2 August 2009)

*Aio*

Asiano has there SPP out, anyone taking out this pretty good offer of $1.10 per security? Or is the price going to dip heavily before aug 19th?


----------



## dan-o (3 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I can only speak for myself, but at $1.10 i will be taking up the offer.....
in a rising market like this it appears a good deal


----------



## investorpaul (10 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

From a price of $1.55 it would take a 29% drop to hit the price of $1.10

My strategy for this is to invest take up the SPP, buying $2 or $4k (not sure yet). When the shares are issued I will sell down the number required to get my $2 or $4k back. What ever is left I will retain.

Utilising this strategy I will bring my avg purchase price down to $1.60 to $2.50 (depending on how much I put in).

My back up incase things go pear shaped is to Short AIO if it drops to $1.30 (15%). Ie my Short will offset the losses on the amount invested in the SPP.

What are other peoples views on the likely impact on AIO over the next week and a bit (until the shares are issued)?


----------



## skc (10 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



investorpaul said:


> From a price of $1.55 it would take a 29% drop to hit the price of $1.10
> 
> My strategy for this is to invest take up the SPP, buying $2 or $4k (not sure yet). When the shares are issued I will sell down the number required to get my $2 or $4k back. What ever is left I will retain.
> 
> ...




Given the large premium between current and SPP price, significant scale back is likely. So be cautious if you short AIO to lock in profit - you will have to guess a little bit on how many shares you are likely to get.


----------



## Sennej (10 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I just applied for $10k worth & if I get them will look to maybe sell half to get some capital back. I am keen to hold onto quite a few of AIO though as I see them as having long term potential to increase significantly. I imagine the share price will drop once the shares are issued but am hoping it will recover & continue to increase. One to keep an eye on IMO.


----------



## gfresh (10 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Remember that 1.227bn shares were already listed on 27th July from the earlier placement. The price actually rose from ~$1.40 to $1.60 shortly after that period. 

It's pretty confusing the amount of placements they have done in this short period of time. 

There was another retail placement of 370.75M shares listed 22nd July for 1-1 entitlement.

This (current) SPP announced 24th July only will allow $100M of shares to be issued, or 90.9M shares @ 1.1  .. 100M / $10k (assuming everybody took maximum offer) .. only gives 10,000 shareholders to receive full entitlement.  Seeing as the number of shareholders applying could be 10 times that, the odds of it being scaled back are pretty high. 

Hence full hedging as skc points out could be risky, as you may so only receive $1k out of $10k. Say you hedge 100% at $1.50, the price jumps up 10% immediately after issue due to everybody buying back shorts and you are in the hole $1k.. then you receive only $1000 shares.. 55/110 * $1000= $500 .. net profit: -$500  (if my math is right anyhow)


----------



## investorpaul (11 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I applied for $4k worth.

I am expecting a scale back and at worse predict to get $2k (min amount). Only 5 trading days to go until they are issued so the risk should be minimal.

However should it drop below $1.30 I will short to cover the $2k only (should i get $4k and the price drops then ill lose out).

Pretty low risk strategy for me IMO but as always DYOR


----------



## gfresh (20 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Scale back is announced today to 35% .. I'm glad they just didn't go for a flat figure, but scaled back on how many you applied for. Quite a tidy profit at current price of ~$1.52

Shares have been delayed for trade until Monday though


----------



## swm79 (20 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

35% wasnt good. went for the $10k so ending up with just $3,500 is very disappointing. 

would have loved to get more!


----------



## gfresh (20 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

$1272 (@ $1.50) / 10k = 12.72% return is poor for depositing some cash in an account and waiting 2 weeks? Don't be greedy :

As a couple predicted, I think it was pretty obvious it was going to be strong scaled back.


----------



## swm79 (20 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

not greedy when you're MASSIVELY diluted by institutionals! 

yeah, pretty obvious about the scale back - but i was cynically hoping


----------



## 3ricko (20 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Has anyone received any shares yet? I just checked my Commsec account and the AIO number was still the same.


----------



## tasmart (20 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



3ricko said:


> Has anyone received any shares yet? I just checked my Commsec account and the AIO number was still the same.




Just checked my Computershare centre.

I got 3182 which is about 35% of what I applied for.

Interesting to see it oversubscribed & scaled back! Less dilution!


----------



## UMike (21 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



tasmart said:


> Just checked my Computershare centre.
> 
> I got 3182 which is about 35% of what I applied for.
> 
> Interesting to see it oversubscribed & scaled back! Less dilution!



So did I ....

I reckon they should of paid down more debt  


'spose the question for me is should I buy some more and stay or go. :car:


----------



## dan-o (21 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

how long do these things normally take to return our money for unallocated shares? ie the other 65%... i have grand designs for that money and the amcor raising...


----------



## ajestocks (28 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Has anyone received their unallocated money yet, i thought we were to receive it this week????


----------



## swm79 (28 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

yes, i received mine back yesterday - i bpayed it so they sent the cash straight back into my account


----------



## ajestocks (28 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



swm79 said:


> yes, i received mine back yesterday - i bpayed it so they sent the cash straight back into my account





thanks, i bpayed too but have not received anything yet in my bank account. hopefully they send it out to me today.


----------



## freebird54 (28 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



ajestocks said:


> thanks, i bpayed too but have not received anything yet in my bank account. hopefully they send it out to me today.




yes I bpaid and they have my bank details but nothing yet - emailed them - no reply

Wonder how much interest they are making on it!!!


----------



## dan-o (28 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

i got my money back today, they wouldve made a bit of interest in holding the extra cash....................................................................................


----------



## ajestocks (29 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



dan-o said:


> i got my money back today, they wouldve made a bit of interest in holding the extra cash....................................................................................




I received a cheque in the post yesterday - I bepaid, thought they would put the money directly into my account.


----------



## UMike (30 August 2009)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



ajestocks said:


> I received a cheque in the post yesterday - I bepaid, thought they would put the money directly into my account.



I too got a cheque?????

I'd rather the shares (for obvious (extra character) reasons)


----------



## skip9 (17 January 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Read about this stock in todays Investor section of the Sunday Age. By the looks have plenty of room for growth. They are on the rise but i am abit speculative to where they will end up?


----------



## Julia (17 January 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I read presumably the same predictions for 2010 report.

The chart is little better than flat, they have a fair bit of debt and pay no dividend.  I wouldn't be buying unless there's a decided improvement.


----------



## nomore4s (17 January 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Julia said:


> I read presumably the same predictions for 2010 report.
> 
> The chart is little better than flat, they have a fair bit of debt and pay no dividend.  I wouldn't be buying unless there's a decided improvement.




Isn't it funny how different people have different perceptions due to the methods they use.

I think it is trending nicely having just broken up from a consolidation period and am currently long and may well add another position shortly if I get another buy signal.


----------



## Jez (18 January 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

I just SOLD the lot on Friday. Things usually ski-rocket after I do that.

Good luck people! Intermodal train loads are not full and the proof is in watching them go past on the main line. Coal trains are full, plentiful and there seems to be no let-up in that division.

Soon the above rail divisions will be split. Now we have (Auto-Bulk-General) (Intermodal) (Coal) - what happens to the shares in that case will be very interesting.


----------



## skc (30 July 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Thread's been quiet for a while.

A very clear line of resistance at $1.72/$1.725. Range absolutely dried up in the last 2 weeks. A strong break probably offer a chance to test $1.9, support at $1.6 needs to hold for the uptrend to be in tact.

Results due out 25 Aug. Any movement before that might foretell something.


----------



## Jez (17 August 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

It seems, after months of delays and no agreement, the new employee EA at Pacific National will be voted upon and will be accepted by staff. Included are bonus payments for damage free performance by terminal staff and fuel use reduction bonuses for train crews. No real losses for staff in the detail and clear performance bonuses indicate the company is starting to think of their employees as real people, so moral and operational costs will improve!


----------



## Tukker (1 October 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Asciano Group has secured a 10 year coal haulage contract with Centennial Coal worth about $550 million.

Interesting. Didn't move the SP much at all. More or less range bound since Aug 09.  Middle range at the moment. A stock to watch if it drops to 1.50ish (the low range).  

Stock Vultures Assemble!


----------



## Jez (1 October 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

With all the advertising going for the QRN float, AIO will be effected, I feel. All of a sudden the public, living in cities, are now aware of a Rail Freight company. There was no AIO advertising before and the majority of the public would say "What is an AIO?" if the name was mentioned. Perhaps this QRN sale will drop AIO prices for a while, then as the retail investors realise there is a 100% better established competitor that has done all the carving to their business already - AIO, is now operating far more efficiently than QRN for many years to come. So it could be a good thing - but not now. I'm sitting on the fence to watch.


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## noie (8 October 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



Jez said:


> With all the advertising going for the QRN float, AIO will be effected, I feel. All of a sudden the public, living in cities, are now aware of a Rail Freight company. There was no AIO advertising before and the majority of the public would say "What is an AIO?" if the name was mentioned. Perhaps this QRN sale will drop AIO prices for a while, then as the retail investors realise there is a 100% better established competitor that has done all the carving to their business already - AIO, is now operating far more efficiently than QRN for many years to come. So it could be a good thing - but not now. I'm sitting on the fence to watch.




Just what I have been thinking all day.... 
Well it started with a question, _Who are QR competitors?_
Ahh pacific national...  _who are they, _
Oh owned by AIO
_Who are THEY?_

oh and when i hit up Pacifics national website i did LOL...



> *Latest News*
> April *2007*
> 
> Letter to Stakeholders
> ...




Over *3 years* since an update.. and even then it took them *4 months* to post the news.....


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## qldfrog (8 November 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

can not get the share price on comsec, is it on trading halt?
was like that this week end already


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## skc (8 November 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



qldfrog said:


> can not get the share price on comsec, is it on trading halt?
> was like that this week end already




Some corporatisation process - consolidation of various entities into a less complicated structure - or something like that.

See here  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101104/pdf/31tpb0jr34qj6t.pdf


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## qldfrog (8 November 2010)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

thanks for that!!
So  AIODA in the interim nfor those as me who did not get the details right
Cheers


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## VSntchr (18 August 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Bid has been recommended by the AIO board.
Details: AIO shareholders to recieve $6.94 in cash plus 0.0387 shares in BIP for every AIO share. The cash component to be reduced by any potential dividend for AIO, currently they are talking about a 90c fully franked dividend.

Still some hurdles to get around, such as the FIRB - hence the market is discounting the takeover.

Cash $6.94
+Franking Credits $0.38 
+ 0.0387 BIP shares = US$40.53x0.737 = ~AUD$55x0.0387=$2.13
=$9.45. 
AIO currently trading at $8.72, discount is ~8.4%.

I also note that later this month BIP pays a 53c dividend, however the SP may recover this in time for the December implementation. The cash component is the monster share here, so BIP will have to fall pretty substantially to have a significant affect on the returns to AIO shareholders in the event of a successful takeover.


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## skc (29 October 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Here's an interesting situation developing...



> The shadows of Chris Corrigan and Peter Scanlon loom imposing over Qube Logistic's move to arm itself with 20 per cent of Asciano to thoroughly stymie the $8.9 billion bid for the ports and trains company by Brookfield Infrastructure.
> 
> Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/infrast...move-on-asciano-20151029-gkm7o7#ixzz3px9dLz8G
> Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook




This is really Wall Street (The Movie) type of stuff. Takeover battles, after market raids, blocking stakes...

20% of AIO is worth some $1.7B which is just shy of QUB's market cap of $2.3B. So QUB is probably not buying it just for the sake of blocking Brookfield's bid. They clearly want a say in the carve up of AIO. There are so many scenarios that this could play out... I will need to have a good think and get prepared for tomorrow's action.

At first glance I can't even decide whether AIO and QUB should go up or down tomorrow...


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## luutzu (29 October 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



skc said:


> Here's an interesting situation developing...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Corrigan really wanted his Patrick back.

Wouldn't it be funny if he got it back then a few years later Aurizon took his Qube away


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## SilverRanger (29 October 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



skc said:


> Here's an interesting situation developing...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Just refreshing everyone's memories:

Solomon Lew and his DJS hijack. Result: got away what he wanted.

TPM and its 19.99% stake of AMM, tried to block out AMM/VOC merger. Result: didn't end up blocking the AMM/VOC merger.

MIN and its 13% stake of AQA, tried to talk a deal with Baosteel on its own version of Pilbara project. Result: Baosteel threatened to walk off, MIN ended up selling out at loss

The AIO/QUB saga sounds more or less like the MIN/AQA, except this time there is much more at stake, for both QUB and Brookfield.

The good news, all 3 takeovers happened eventually.

The bad news, AIO might drop tomorrow!


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## skc (30 October 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



SilverRanger said:


> Just refreshing everyone's memories:




Thanks for a great list to help me frame my thinking. There are similarities and there are differences. By way of background, the AFR reports that 



> According to the termsheet sent to fund managers, QUBE would not vote in favour of Brookfield's offer.
> 
> However, it said QUBE reserved the right to enter into talks with Brookfield and/or Asciano and be involved in any transaction involving the carve-up of Asciano's assets.
> 
> ...




If QUB doesn't vote in favour of Brookfield's offer, then there's no point talking to Brookfield (BIP) at all about carving up AIO. So by this notion, it feels most like Lew's DJS's blackmail. Lew wanted to sell his Country Road stake so he raided DJS as hostage. Now QUB perhaps want to force BIP to sell the Ports to them?

I seem to remember reading something about takeover rules.... that you are not allowed to favour certain holders over others. Woolworths (the South African DJS buyer) had to act like it always wanted to buy Country Road at a ridiculously high price off it's own back, even though it's plainly doing so to the benefit of Lew. I wonder if it's legal for BIP to agree to sell the ports to QUB, even if it has the desire to do so?!

On top of all this.... is the backdrop of regulatory uncertainty surrounding the takeover itself. Divesting the Ports probably wouldn't solve ACCC's issues which mostly concern the rail operations. Does it mean that QUB is confidence that ACCC's hurdle will be crossed in the end? Or may be it's plan B is to buy the ports directly from AIO should the Brookfield deal is ruled out?



SilverRanger said:


> The bad news, AIO *might *drop tomorrow!




May be... if AIO was trading around the offer price then a drop would be a no brainer. But given that it's some 20% below the implied deal value, any falls should be pretty limited. It was trading close enough to $7 before the BIP offer and we are only at ~$7.50 now. I'd say it's a buy if it gets anywhere near $7. On the other hand, QUB may be a short. It's taking a very large bite while it thinks about what to do with it's mouthful of AIO. 

Interesting side note... QUB's raid also has good similarity with MIN's raid on AQA. But MIN went against a Chinese acquirer and ignored the Chinese "face" concept. I don't know if divesting the ports is or isn't a good idea from BIP's point of view, but I wonder if the Canadians would be upset with QUB's rude intrusion?


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## VSntchr (30 October 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Fascinating discussion guys. Really good stuff.



skc said:


> May be... if AIO was trading around the offer price then a drop would be a no brainer. But given that it's some 20% below the implied deal value, any falls should be pretty limited. It was trading close enough to $7 before the BIP offer and we are only at ~$7.50 now. I'd say it's a buy if it gets anywhere near $7. *On the other hand, QUB may be a short.* It's taking a very large bite while it thinks about what to do with it's mouthful of AIO.



Agree on AIO. 
The bold is where I am focused today. Short the acquirer is probably the common play, but it seems to have a decent win rate in the recent history.
Looking back at MIN like you guys have pointed too shows that it fell on the day it announced its stake.


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## SilverRanger (6 November 2015)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*



VSntchr said:


> Fascinating discussion guys. Really good stuff.
> 
> 
> Agree on AIO.
> ...




Some more interesting developments on AIO overnight, took a short on QUB at open, as the prospect of a full takeover is on the cards for ”QUB and friends“.


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## Ferret (28 January 2016)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

Took a nibble at this today.  

Qube has now made a formal bid, so even if Brookfield can't get past the ACCC, a takeover is still likely.

Its only trading a little below the Qube bid value, but the bid also includes some tasty franking credits for the super fund.  Still a chance of a bidding war too.


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## System (26 August 2016)

*Re: AIO - Asciano*

On August 25th, 2016, Asciano Limited (AIO) was removed from the ASX's official list following implementation of  the scheme of arrangement between the Company and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the  shares in the company by Australian Logistics Acquisition Investments Pty Limited.


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