# AGS - Alliance Resources



## pussycat2005 (26 September 2005)

*AGS*

real copper and uranium discoveries
trading at 22cents 
up from 15 cents..on Friday


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## Cash cow (30 September 2005)

*AGS: Gold and uranium miner*

AGS is currently abou one third of the way through their current uranium drilling program they have already had two announcements regarding this drilling program which have sent the share price in the northerly direction in a hurry (50% gain within an hour of the last announcement). Another announcement regarding progress/findings of current drilling program is due early next week. The company has also found high grade gold samples in its recent drilling progam in Maldon, Victoria. Check it out.


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## chicken (12 January 2006)

*AGS*

Interesting little Uranium stock...has anyone any comments...just bought some..please comment


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## TheAnalyst (12 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*

I just looked at the chart and would you have a run down on the fundamentals and the prospects so far??


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## laurie (12 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*

chicken
Been holding for a while now got in @.14c in Oct 05 this is the ONLY Uranium stock that is under existing lease but they only hold 25% still if you are looking at over $6billion based on existing drill results that's good news not to mention it could either merge or be taken over 

cheers laurie


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## chicken (12 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> chicken
> Been holding for a while now got in @.14c in Oct 05 this is the ONLY Uranium stock that is under existing lease but they only hold 25% still if you are looking at over $6billion based on existing drill results that's good news not to mention it could either merge or be taken over
> 
> cheers laurie



Thanks Laurie.....cheers


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## TheAnalyst (12 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*



			
				laurie said:
			
		

> chicken
> Been holding for a while now got in @.14c in Oct 05 this is the ONLY Uranium stock that is under existing lease but they only hold 25% still if you are looking at over $6billion based on existing drill results that's good news not to mention it could either merge or be taken over
> 
> cheers laurie




Hi Laurie

 Could you please explain a little more in regards to this term as i got a little lost here? "that is under existing lease but they only hold 25%"


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## Mrs Mallins (12 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*

If it formed a handle we'd serve tea wouldn't we dears, but it looks more like a soup ladle - a rounded bottom already topped.  I wonder if the price is being influenced by those nice boys meeting in Sydney yesterday and today about green gas who seem to want some yellow cake with their tea (or soup).


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## laurie (12 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> Hi Laurie
> 
> Could you please explain a little more in regards to this term as i got a little lost here? "that is under existing lease but they only hold 25%"




It's rather confusing.

Beverly is mined by a Canadian company called  Heathgate Resources. Heathgate exploration arm Quasar in joint venture with AGS has a 75% holding  AGS have a 25% free carry.

cheers laurie


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## Chief Wigam (14 January 2006)

*Re: AGS*

I got in at 18c last Thursday. That's a 25% increase in 8 days - woohoo.


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## seachange (18 January 2006)

*AGS*

Does anyone think AGS will retrace to the 0.19c mark???


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## crackaton (2 February 2006)

I doubt it


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## trader (2 February 2006)

I think there is more of a chance of the share price going to 40 cents than
back to 19 cents , if not for the speeding ticket that they received it probably would have been there yesterday.


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## trader (2 February 2006)

Definitely something going on with this stock , went down yesterday
after speeding ticket, all day sat on 29 - 29.5 cents with low turnover
then in after market close 205,000 were brought at 29.5 cent , now
this morning sellers have retreated and big buyer coming back in. So maybe
the speeding ticket has made the buyers a bit more cautious but they are
still there , and more than likely the reason why this stock went up as well.
( eg takeover , new estimate or whatever )


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## laurie (2 February 2006)

MY biggest gripe with the ASX is why no price query when the sp drops!! 

cheers laurie


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## Chief Wigam (17 February 2006)

Great stock this. Bought in at 18c ~7 weeks ago, so very happy for a change.


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## laurie (22 February 2006)

Well this little baby will get another speeding ticket shortly   
sp now .41c 6.89% rise to-day and there's more to come if not a buyout or takeover offer of it's 25% holding

cheers laurie


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## kariba (23 February 2006)

Absolute standout U stock on the ASX - check the latest presentation on page 12: Comparion with PDN's Langer H deposit over double the mineralisation, and higher grade, and open to east & west.

Yes, much more to come......will see $1 soon unless Heathgate makes the expected takeover first. : 

regards all


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## laurie (23 February 2006)

kariba said:
			
		

> Absolute standout U stock on the ASX - check the latest presentation on page 12: Comparion with PDN's Langer H deposit over double the mineralisation, and higher grade, and open to east & west.
> 
> Yes, much more to come......will see $1 soon unless Heathgate makes the expected takeover first. :
> 
> regards all




Kariba
Yeh thinking about sp v what's in the ground it's way undervalued anyhow it has hit .445c let's hope your $1 is in sight

cheers laurie


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## kariba (26 February 2006)

AGS SP still has heaps in the tank IMO:

On p11/12 of AGS' latest presentation they make the statement that:

PDN has 1.7km² @ .025% U3O8 (PDN have already announced that the deposit = 52,470,004 lbs of U3O8 or 23,800 tonnes) - inground resource value per share of: $6.10

NOW:

AGS have just announced that they have 4km² @ .03%! Taking into account the extra 2.3km² & 20% higher grade, THEN: Mathematically, AGS has about 143,243,110 lbs of U3O8 or 65,000 tonnes 

AGS share of that is 25% = 35,810,777 lbs of U3O8 for a value of $1,851,030,050 with an inground resource value per share of: $8.09

AGS has to be the best/safest U stock on the ASX IMO! It is really looking the goods. 

Reagrds to all


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## kariba (26 February 2006)

Just another thing - The daily SP action indicates that it is being accumulated too. I have seen quite a few blocking bids that appear to be capping the SP. Indicates to me that big buyers are stocking up

Regards all


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## laurie (26 February 2006)

kariba said:
			
		

> AGS has to be the best/safest U stock on the ASX IMO! It is really looking the goods.
> 
> Reagrds to all




You and I know that but the market has not really taken to it! 

cheers laurie


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## kariba (27 February 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> You and I know that but the market has not really taken to it!




I wouldnt say that! AGS has risen 200% in 2 months - that can only happen if buyers want in. This rise has been without day-traders too. Just solid regular rises. All this on the back of very few announcements. The last beeing on Dec 22. Wow! Whats going to happen when we get some more good news. (Which cant be far away)

AGS is starting to get good press too - check out this article for instance:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=2&id=3621

cheers


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## kariba (27 February 2006)

For those that believe in gap-filling - the gap between 42 & 42 was filled today. Healthy consolidation too.

regards


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## laurie (28 February 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> You and I know that but the market has not really taken to it!
> 
> cheers laurie




down 2.44% mid morning trade! so what's change!!

cheers laurie


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## Anthony.m (29 March 2006)

this (AGS) is getting good press on other chat sites, potentially what can it's share price be in 12-18 months?????????????


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## laurie (29 March 2006)

Anthony.m said:
			
		

> this (AGS) is getting good press on other chat sites, potentially what can it's share price be in 12-18 months?????????????




Will IMHO it will be taken over by that time by Heathgate Resources and will pay shareholders $3 for each share    

cheers laurie


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## ctp6360 (29 March 2006)

i sold yesterday, woe is me


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## kariba (29 March 2006)

Uranium boom time!!! Choose wisely because a ton of money will be made & lost on some of the junk out there.

AGS - has mega resource
GIR - same deal
AEX - fabulous potential with Sth African resource
SAU - unloved & undervalued - has GREAT leases
MEP - Brilliant management, great J/V's
EQN - Will be mining uranium ore next year!!!!!!!
CMR, ARU, & a few more have class

Throw a dart at the rest, make some dough trading them .... but be on the watch

cheers


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## Chief Wigam (14 April 2006)

I'd like to see AGS go for another run soon. As as aside Kariba, CMR from your list is looking solid.


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## kariba (14 April 2006)

I currently hold shares in:

AEX
AEXO
AGS
GIR
SAU
SAUO

Have missed CMR - but it can go much higher!
Want to get some EQN - MEGA copper mine & will mine (not process) uranium ore next year (22 mill llbs Uranium resource)

Also will have some U3O8 Ltd from new float (Will be a flyer once floated)

cheers


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## Chief Wigam (29 May 2006)

Out of interest, did everyone hold AGS or did you sell during the recent correction? I'm still holding.


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## Sean K (29 May 2006)

Holding Chief. I think there is a little more correcting to go and will buy more of this one when I think it's safe to put my feet back in the water. Could be now, but the market's still jittery and will take any further opportunity to take profits I reckon.


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## blueroo (29 May 2006)

Ditto  :


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## kariba (29 May 2006)

I sold in the high 30's - but have bought back in @ 26.5

Bargain prices ATM & if I had more cash I would buy more

cheers


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## Chief Wigam (3 June 2006)

I can't help but notice a head and shoulder pattern did form and downside price target of around 20c was missed but not by much. Anyone else see that?


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## kariba (3 June 2006)

Chief Wigam said:
			
		

> I can't help but notice a head and shoulder pattern did form and downside price target of around 20c was missed but not by much. Anyone else see that?




No .. i dont see a head & shoulders here. Too much up & down action at the top to call it a H & S. Despite the falls in SP there is nothing to suggest that the up-trend has broken. It did plunge thru support at 37 cents in mid May but the bounce off 24 cents is indicating a SP rise back to test 37/38.

It can fall to 27/28 & still maintain the up-trend ... it would not be good if it falls below that.

cheers


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## Sean K (4 August 2006)

Great ann out this am. Beverly 4 uranium project with Heathgate/Qasar looks hot.

Up 30+%


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## laurie (4 August 2006)

And the results are from infilling drilling which means more good news to come

cheers laurie


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## 56gsa (4 August 2006)

bit disappointed after their presentation to the uranium conference but these results look promising to make their 33,000t of U target a JORC compliant resource (expected by end of the year) - would be one of the biggest in Oz and they have good partner (Heathgate) who has capacity to exploit

and in Sth Aust - so more advanced in terms of a supportive State Govt 

Has now dropped to 40 cents - those that bought on last rise selling at these levels ?


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## imajica (4 August 2006)

this is going to rocket on Monday - I think we are going to see $1 very soon indeed


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## doctorj (5 August 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> this is going to rocket on Monday - I think we are going to see $1 very soon indeed




Do you offer money back guarantees?


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## imajica (7 August 2006)

article in the Australian



Yellowcake frenzy a mark of global hunger
You just can't get enough exposure to uranium, Robin Bromby writes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

August 07, 2006
FEDERAL Labor's plan to scrap its three-mines uranium policy seems to have unleashed a new round of yellowcake frenzy.
And not just here. 

Perth brokers have been approached by a large Hong Kong sharebroking firm looking to organise a $100 million float on the Hong Kong exchange. 

The plan is to acquire uranium projects in Australia and elsewhere and, through a Hong Kong listing, afford Chinese investors exposure to uranium. 

Back home, more initial public offerings are under way, one involving a director who ran foul of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission last year. 

ASIC obtained a permanent injunction against David Zohar and his company, Swancove Enterprises, from operating an unlicensed financial services business after allegations of their involvement in spruiking shares in Red River Resources, Corella Oil and Australian Biogen. Swancove had used a bulk mailing company to send unsolicited letters to more than 55,000 people offering shares in these companies. 

Mr Zohar is running an $8 million IPO by Uranium Oil & Gas. He has been involved in many floats, starting with Fortuna Gold in 1987 and several since, including Greenstone Resources (now Red 5) and Red River. UOG's portfolio includes the Bungalow Well uranium target, 130km from BHP Billiton's Yeelirrie deposit, and uranium and oil projects in the Northern Territory. 

An enthusiastic Mr Zohar told The Australian: "I have never seen anything like it." 

Investors had mailed cheques even before the prospectus was released and applications were now clogging his fax machine. 

Mr Zohar said the ASIC move involved what he called a technicality, and was absurd. 

"ASIC's having a go at virtually everyone these days." 

The latest IPO to hit the market is a $5 million raising by Venture Minerals, gearing up to drill its Churchill Dam copper-gold-uranium target located, its says, on the same corridor as Olympic Dam. Venture also holds uranium tenements near Redport explorations in Western Australia. 

Eromanga Uranium on Friday launched a $15 million IPO, offering exposure to projects in both South Australia and the Northern Territory. 

Next year's Australian Labor Party conference is likely to endorse a plan by leader Kim Beazley to ditch the three-mines limit that had been imposed by Bob Hawke's Labor government. 

While the Queensland and West Australian state Labor governments remain opposed to uranium mining in their states, investors are expecting that resistance will be overcome within the next few years. 

Drilling continues apace -- as does land acquisition, with advanced explorer Summit Resources stitching up another 12,000sqkm of prospective ground in Queensland. 

Summit, with advanced uranium projects around Mt Isa, will manage exploration of land between Mt Isa and the Northern Territory border. It has brought in listed Newland Resources, which will stump up $5 million for a half share. 

Last Monday, Newland was queried by the Australian Stock Exchange after its share price jumped from 17c to 24c. Newland said it knew of nothing to explain recent trading. 

And there have been more good drilling results. 

Alliance Resources, a junior partner with an arm of General Atomic of the US -- the operator of the Beverley uranium mine in South Australia -- reported grades as high as 1.657 per cent from the adjacent Beverley 4 Mile prospect. 

Another operator, Scimitar Resources, reported grades as high as 0.13 per cent at its Yanrey deposit in Western Australia.


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

AGS has held up since is massive jump on 3 Aug after the ann regarding the high grades intercepted at the beverly 4 uranium mine. 

Jumped again today on volume but no news. 

Must be some more results to follow. Looks very positive going forward. 

Almost touching $0.50 as I write and breaking though all previous resistance. Might struggle to keep it up, but if it holds, blue sky.


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Up almost 20% now at $0.52.

Be careful jumping on this now. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Holding above $0.52.

Interesting to note the two head and shoulder patterns formed on AGS over the past few months and each one did as expected. The bear H&S produced a fall of about the distance between the neck line and the top of the head as has done the inverse H&S. All approximate of course, but I can see it. I saw the bearish H&S but held on as I have this as a long term investment, but was sceptical about the inverse pattern forming. 

I'm an amateur at this game so if there's any real techies out there, tell me what you think. 

Once it settles, the fundamentals on the Bevery 4 mine are ripe. Now, Labor, change tha policy!


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## laurie (16 August 2006)

Thanks for the charts kennas the middle one tells the main story and to think this was .14c when I got on in Oct 05  

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

he he, 15c on 21 Sep 05.


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## stockmaster (16 August 2006)

For the past 3 days, i have seen a couple of companies whose share price rose under no ann i.e UXA, CQT. However this only last for 1-2 days and then drop bak to where it started. AGS might follow the similar trend, but the closing today was above my expectation, a good closing today certainly or shall certainly be maintained by tomorrow, anyone noes wat the ann will be like?


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## blueroo (17 August 2006)

Rising nicely again today! Jumped in excess of 9% by 10.22am.

Go you good thing


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## Sean K (17 August 2006)

Probably get a speeding ticket soon if it doesn't come out with something more.


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## Fab (17 August 2006)

Why is this stock rising so much ??


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## Sean K (17 August 2006)

Their last ann reported significant U intersections at Beverly 4 in Arkaroola, adjacent to the Beverly Uranium Mine in Sth Aus. Project is JV with Quasar, a subsiderary of Heathgate who operate the Beverly Mine. 

I'd say another ann is due with this recent action. Or, a please explain. Or, traders jump ship and goes back to $0.30....


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## blueroo (17 August 2006)

It hit the ground running at 10am, but sadly it has now run out of puff!

I thought it might drop back to fill gaps but it is holding steady, thankfully. Maybe another run tomorrow before profits taken in the afternoon.


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## Sean K (17 August 2006)

Maybe roo. 

I reckon it'll pull back to $0.50 and (hopefully) consolidate there. 

Where's the ann, or please explain from the ASX?? I suppose they're just assuming its related to the last ann....


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## stockmaster (17 August 2006)

Base on the graph, for AGs, a strong day often follow by 2 to 3 days of steady drop. It seems that this trend will appear again, as the price may drop for another 2 -3 days, it may touch 46-47c before the release of an ann and new graph will appear. I am out but believe a lot left to go. Do ur own research!


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

Up another 10% through $0.60.  

It's doubled in a month. Perhaps time to lock in some profits. 

Where's the ann????

Speeding ticket to be issued for sure.


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

1035  [Dow Jones] Alliance Resources (AGS.AU) extends powerful rally, rising 8.0% to 61 cents on heavy trading of 3.1 million shares, doubling already this month. Fueling rally, Aug. 4 drilllng report of wide, high-grade intercepts of uranium ore at Beverley 4 Mile prospect, Arkaroola project, favorably located immediately west of operating Beverley mine. AGS has 25% free carried interest with Quasar, an affiliate of Beverley mine's operator Heathgate Resources, operating 4 Mile exploration activity, where drilling continuing, with issue of further results to provide trading opportunities. (RCB)


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## stockmaster (21 August 2006)

Takeover offer? Is this likely since the company seems to be laying on a load of uranium. A lot of heavy buying? Price has been up and down in the past half hr?
Where is the next resistance point!


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## Dr Stock (21 August 2006)

I sold at 62c. 19% profit for 4 days


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

Takeover? Abbotsleigh own 38% so if they want to, maybe. Their gold projects seem quite good also, but I think all the action is around the potential of Beverley 4. 

Might have been a good move to lock in profits, but I'm holding long term.


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## stockmaster (21 August 2006)

Lock in profit for short term and long term investment are both good moves since no one noes the where the price will end. I fink since there is so much momentum right now, sell half and leave the other half might be a good choice


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

Agree. Sage advice I often ignore through greed, which of course is good. (if you're GG) Sold half at $.67


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## YOUNG_TRADER (21 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> 1035  [Dow Jones] Alliance Resources (AGS.AU) extends powerful rally, rising 8.0% to 61 cents on heavy trading of 3.1 million shares, doubling already this month. Fueling rally, Aug. 4 drilllng report of wide, high-grade intercepts of uranium ore at Beverley 4 Mile prospect, Arkaroola project, favorably located immediately west of operating Beverley mine. AGS has 25% free carried interest with Quasar, an affiliate of Beverley mine's operator Heathgate Resources, operating 4 Mile exploration activity, where drilling continuing, with issue of further results to provide trading opportunities. (RCB)





I know a bit about AGS but haven't touched it,

I have a question, is there enough Uranium in its Beverly prospect (Given that it only has a 25% interest) to justify a mkt cap of over $150m with no income?

Or are people content with the momentum and chart picture, 

I'm curious as this stock is a clear example of how my fundamental research won't allow me to play a spec stock that clearly has alot of buying behind it, so perhaps I need to make allowances every once in a while


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## Sean K (21 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I know a bit about AGS but haven't touched it,
> 
> I have a question, is there enough Uranium in its Beverly prospect (Given that it only has a 25% interest) to justify a mkt cap of over $150m with no income?
> 
> ...




It's still highly speculative YT. Just how you can do a fundamental analysis on this is very difficult. Even their gold operations are still being developed.

Perhaps from a 'fundamental' side you need to take into consideration such things as JV partners, strategic loc of resource, current logistics support, and what drill results have already being produced. But you do this already!  

There's something else going on here. It's been heading north all month, it's not just a day trader driven push IMO. 

Perhaps some new results out of Beverley will prove the current market cap worth it? Perhaps the resource is blue sky? 

Or, on the other hand it could be dumped on no news.................


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## stockmaster (21 August 2006)

How will this reply to the ASX query affect the price? It seems the downward move is quite certain. Base on the last trade, it seems we will see a bad start for tomorrow, will the price finish somewhere in the 40s?


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## pussycat2005 (21 August 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> How will this reply to the ASX query affect the price? It seems the downward move is quite certain. Base on the last trade, it seems we will see a bad start for tomorrow, will the price finish somewhere in the 40s?



you can't be serious! 
that is wishful thinking...

the 500k buys towards the end of last week tell the story 

and so did todays open and its strong finish...

sit tight enjoy this ride because it isn't over yet! 

well done to all those holding ags!


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## kariba (21 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> I have a question, is there enough Uranium in its Beverly prospect (Given that it only has a 25% interest) to justify a mkt cap of over $150m with no income?



Young Trader

Based on current data *AGS * (BEFORE the latest BONANZA results) had a non-jorc resource of Uranium mineralisation @:

4ml2 @ .04% for 136,020,768 lbs (51,415 t) of U3O8 = inground value: $8,731,062,821 ($8.7bil) (AGS share 25%) = $2,182,765,705.21
*****Inground value per share: $9.54

Then AGS also has:

* Zero expenses until decision to mine
* Zero sovereign risk
* Low cost mine startup - Beverley operating next door
* Low cost ISL mining option
* Resource open both East & West
* Maldon gold project progressing
* M1 & M2 plus other great prospects

Now we get to the EXTENTION of the above with MASSIVE grades. IMO this will add another 20,000 t to the resource taking it to about 70,000t of uranium (conservative IMO) - AGS's share is 25% of that. A back of envelope calculation values AGS's 25% inground share of the project to about A$3 billion
*****Inground value per share: $13.25!!!!  

Of course it doesnt value the share at that, we need to wait on JORC figures to come out, Feasability studies, Capex, etc.

By way of comparison:

*PDN * has 1.7ml2 of U mineralisation for: 52,470,004 lbs of U3O8 = inground value:$3,368,006,988 ($3.3bil)
*****Inground value per share: $7.78

Of course they other projects in Africa & Australia - Not knocking PDN; I have a large holding in them ..... But the point is: AGS has a great future!!!

cheers


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

All Oz U3O8 players are at a discount because of Labor's policy atm. Plus, they're mainly exploring without JORC, so it's very hard to value them fully. 

I reckon AGS will come off quite a bit today. Maybe not back to the 40s as suggested, but will be a decent whack. 

I hope not, but we all *buy the rumour sell the fact! *


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## stockmaster (22 August 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> you can't be serious!
> that is wishful thinking...
> 
> the 500k buys towards the end of last week tell the story
> ...





Pussycat, if the price get below 40c then there is serious problems, but any where betwwen 40-50 is likely and reasonable. AGS does sound have a lot of potential, but no one can determine this be4 the result is out. In short term, might be a good idea js to get out and buy bak when u r fully confident i,e when some ann is out to support ur argument


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

Held up very impressively. Surprised. No one wants to sell this atm.


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## pussycat2005 (22 August 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> Pussycat, if the price get below 40c then there is serious problems, but any where betwwen 40-50 is likely and reasonable. AGS does sound have a lot of potential, but no one can determine this be4 the result is out. In short term, might be a good idea js to get out and buy bak when u r fully confident i,e when some ann is out to support ur argument



lol stockmaster seems like your the only one who isn't confident! 
I'm happy to be holding!

AGS has held onto its gains no crash no pump and dump 
this is the real deal! 

next u mine to go into production 

biggest u discovery in the last 30 years 

just waiting on more results to confirm this and off she goes...


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## laurie (22 August 2006)

Will you be on when the trading halt comes   

cheers laurie


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## johnmwu3 (22 August 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> lol stockmaster seems like your the only one who isn't confident!
> I'm happy to be holding!
> 
> AGS has held onto its gains no crash no pump and dump
> ...



IMO AGS only own 25% interest in the project, and  PFN analysis is not the last


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## kariba (22 August 2006)

johnmwu3 said:
			
		

> IMO AGS only own 25% interest in the project, and  PFN analysis is not the last




Yes but 25% of the project is worth over $3billion!!

cheers


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## pussycat2005 (22 August 2006)

if ags owned beverly 4 Mile 100% what would its share price be at now ? Is there any way they could increase their holdings?


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

Doubt it puss. The last time I remember a small company trying to take over a larger one was when EISA tried to buy Ozemail. They went bankrupt and I lost 4K.   That was a lot of money to me back in the late 90s.


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## stockmaster (22 August 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> lol stockmaster seems like your the only one who isn't confident!
> I'm happy to be holding!
> 
> AGS has held onto its gains no crash no pump and dump
> ...




Pussy, i am confident in long term it will get over 1 or 2 , but not now, price shall be down and down till next week. High 50 or low 60 might be a good price to buy, right now just bit too high, i sold mine in the morning and watched carefully for almost the whole day but still didn;t have the gut to re-enter. I believe the chance of a drop is more than a rise, unless the price open above 70c tomorrow, i will not enter it. 

Good luck!


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## nizar (22 August 2006)

Please excuse my ignorance but i heard that AGS can bypass the 3-mine law - can someone here explain how ?

Thanks
ps. kennas look at OMC, looks like its about to break out


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## Sean K (22 August 2006)

The 3 mine thing at app in Sth Aus is funny. I'm actually confused by what the State Govt are saying. The current mines can expand apparantly, but still no 'new' mines. Perhaps Beverley 4 Mile, can say it's an extention of the Beverley Mine?

PS, Saw the break on OMC. Check the OMC thread. Bought at $0.615 on Mon. Still waiting serious confirmation of break, but volume good. Needs to hold above .60 for a start.


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## stockmaster (23 August 2006)

This is amazing, pussycat, u r a genius. This is so bizarre!


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## Sean K (23 August 2006)

I reckon geologists mates are buying up!


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## Brissydave (23 August 2006)

> Please excuse my ignorance but i heard that AGS can bypass the 3-mine law - can someone here explain how ?




Apparently they can "extend" the nearby Beverley mine ... there is supposedly a precedent for this with the North Jabiru mine being some 30 km away from the original Jabiru mine.

Please excuse me if I have not got my facts or names exactly right ... I am working from memory as I can not find the original source of this information at the moment ... but the general idea is right ... so it looks like AGS will be able to mine their find ... especially as the SA govt. is very "U" positive.

Cheers ... Dave

PS I'm holding and happy about it ....


----------



## 56gsa (24 August 2006)

AGS continues to amaze!  Any thoughts on where it's going?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

The recent drilling results at Beverley must be just the tip of the ice berg here. However, if they don't follow up with the results expected (or known to a few) then it'll pull back quite considerably. I'm thinking of taking some more profits. The higher they go the further they fall.....


----------



## laurie (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> The recent drilling results at Beverley must be just the tip of the ice berg here. However, if they don't follow up with the results expected (or known to a few) then it'll pull back quite considerably. I'm thinking of taking some more profits. The higher they go the further they fall.....




Right now you would be playing Russian Roulette  

cheers laurie


----------



## stockmaster (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> The recent drilling results at Beverley must be just the tip of the ice berg here. However, if they don't follow up with the results expected (or known to a few) then it'll pull back quite considerably. I'm thinking of taking some more profits. The higher they go the further they fall.....





Ken, how many days did AUM rise from 35c till the ann of Rockland Report came out?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> Ken, how many days did AUM rise from 35c till the ann of Rockland Report came out?




Dunno. Not many if I remember. Not sure if AUM is the same at AGS, but still, would be nice.


----------



## stockmaster (24 August 2006)

It rose 15 days in a row base o nhr graph, lock i nproft is correct in some way as share are risky investment, however i js have this feeling that this share has a lot to good, u can lock in the proft when the ann is out


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (24 August 2006)

Guys I don't mean to hijack here, I'm just trying to understand something,

As AGS is MTN's closest company and they both have very big U deposits, 
but if we compare the pair

AGS mkt cap $160m+ 25% interest in Very Large Uranium deposit 120m - 160m lbs+ avg 0.07% so net to AGS is say 30m-40mlbs + U308


MTN mkt cap $35m 100% interest in a very large 70mlb+ depoist averaging 0.07%

AGS is located 8kms from Beverly, MTNs Mt Gee is about 25kms, why is there such a big pricing difference? $160m vs $35m it just doesn't make sense?

Is MTN a lepper?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Guys I don't mean to hijack here, I'm just trying to understand something,
> 
> As AGS is MTN's closest company and they both have very big U deposits,
> but if we compare the pair
> ...




Just not flavour of the month is it? Stange really. When you put the ruler over SMM it's probably languishing too.


----------



## laurie (24 August 2006)

Hit .82cents yehaaaaaaaaaa go you good thing    

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie (24 August 2006)

ASX would have to issue another speeding ticket if it can catch AGS now .83cents    

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

Yes Laurie, I agree and can't understand why it hasn't been issued, or the stock suspended. It has been an astromical rise. 

Could it all be just speculation? YT is right on the fundamentals. atm, on the fundamentals there are better uranium stocks. SMM, VUL, PDN, MTN .....

It's what we don't know that concerns me. I haven't taken any more profits yet, but I have a parachute very handy. 

I haven't actually been through such a steep rise on a stock before over such a short period. It's exciting, but I've been burn't too many times by being that little bit too greedy. I was greedy with the general resource rise in April and didn't lock in profits and subsequently lost 000s in paper profit. 

There is never a bad profit, and I might have to be happy with that psychology. 

Hope your holding on brings fruit. And gold! Well, Uranium!


----------



## imajica (24 August 2006)

here comes the late afternoon run

should close near 90 cents


----------



## stockmaster (24 August 2006)

The late afternoon slump may be purely due to the market, however i will follow kennas. so kennas if it the rise continue tomorrow, r u going to stay or do some short -term trade?


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

I sold out at $0.80. Very keen to buy back in depending on what the hell is going on. Beverley has massive potential (obviously)

Am happy to have made some beer money (for a while) over the past 3 weeks. So hard to sell......  

I hope it keeps pushing up for you guys, but I'm trying not to be greedy. It'll probably go to $2.00 tomorrow!


----------



## stockmaster (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I sold out at $0.80. Very keen to buy back in depending on what the hell is going on. Beverley has massive potential (obviously)
> 
> Am happy to have made some beer money (for a while) over the past 3 weeks. So hard to sell......
> 
> I hope it keeps pushing up for you guys, but I'm trying not to be greedy. It'll probably go to $2.00 tomorrow!






Hahaha, i hope not!


----------



## laurie (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Am happy to have made some beer money (for a while) over the past 3 weeks. So hard to sell......




I'm waiting for champagne money   

cheers laurie


----------



## imajica (27 August 2006)

interesting to note that if AGS had a market cap comparable to that of PDN's then it would be trading at around $8.70 a share

AGS has around half the amount of shares as PDN so it is feasible that with a soon to be JORC compliant resource (say by the end of the year) indicating a larger resource than that of PDN's - the share price will surge significantly - with billions of dollars worth of U in the ground - the possibility for other significant mineral finds - and the tenement's proximity to the existing U mine - good luck to all holders and stay with this one - stocks like these don't present opportunities like this everyday


----------



## stockmaster (27 August 2006)

imajica, how confident are you? we have seen how cdu has collapsed from a high of 10 to 3, i believe ags is likely to increase at that rate but once a report like CDU is out, it will slump as fast as it rises. Also ASX is watching this share carefully, will they offer another speeding ticket? Remember they are very good at this. 

However on the other side, there were two aspects that really pleased me, one is after offering the warning from ASX it didn't drop as much as i was expecting and it continues to rise showing there is some fact lying at the deposit. Secondly the drop on friday was recovered very quickly indicating a new rally is ready. 

In long term, this share is very definite in IMO, but short term, it looks bit risky, however it also carries a big reward.  Cheers!  

DYOR


----------



## pussycat2005 (27 August 2006)

stockmaster

aum from 30 cents to 10.00 in a month

no stock on the asx market compares

AGS is still largely unrecognised by the market.
The share volume is testiment to that.

Don't ever forget AGS is in Australia.
It has a ready market for the uranium with Heathgate.
Beverley 4 Mile will be considered an extension to an existing mine.
The plant and equipent is already built and a $100M expansion at
Beverley is underway
Ask anybody in the mining industry right now how long it takes to
get anything done let alone build a new uranium plant.

Beverley is so far ahead of all the other Uranium Juniors it is not
funny.
When the reality hits that getting any new uranium mine off the
ground even with the ban on uranium mining lifted. It will still
take around 6 Years!

AGS is one of the few companies that can actually have its Uranium
mined before the Uranium boom is over (2013-17)

I can only see the following companies within Australia capitalising
on the current Uranium boom by 2010.

They are RIO/ERA with the possible mining of Jabiluka.
BHP with the expansion of its Olympic Dam Mine.
Heathgate/AGS with their expansion.
SXR Uranium One with Honeymoon

Nobody else without a processing plant could be up and running by
2010.
AGS is the only Australian Listed Company within Australia (other
than RIO/ERA or BHP) that can be earning uranium dollars by 2010.
Many experts are tipping Uranium prices to be USD$200lb+ by 2010

When the market wakes up to this glaring fact, AGS will be worth far
more than it is today.

If there is 70,000 tonnes of Uranium at Beverley 4 Mile and there
could be a lot more when the drilling is finished at USD $200/lb
Thats $42Billion in ground value. AGS Share is $10.5B

Make no mistake Heathgate know what they are doing.
They fully understand what is about to happen in the uranium market.
They are doing all they can to get as much out of the ground as
possible as soon as possible. This year they will up production from
1050 tonnes to 1500 tonnes.


----------



## stockmaster (27 August 2006)

pussycat2005 said:
			
		

> stockmaster
> 
> aum from 30 cents to 10.00 in a month
> 
> ...





Pussy, i fink u misread my comment, i neva said AGS is bad share in "long term". 2010 is a couple of yrs till now, and by then if it survives, no doubt it will be higher than now. However a lot of people are short-term trader, by locking their money in one company for over 4 yrs, u need to encouter the opportunity cost and as you know $100 in 2006 does not equal to $100 in 2010. 

My question is whether it will go up in days or weeks. If you believe it will rise in that short period of time, i am happy to hear. In other word if you believe the share can continue to rise after it rose like 6-7 in a row, then i am please to hear. Cheers!


----------



## nizar (27 August 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> My question is whether it will go up in days or weeks. If you believe it will rise in that short period of time, i am happy to hear. In other word if you believe the share can continue to rise after it rose like 6-7 in a row, then i am please to hear. Cheers!




Yes i do

Nobody wants to be out of this one when the trading halt comes or when the next drilling results are out. JORC by the end of the year is possible

The pattern now is 4 days up, 1 day small pullback, and then up again. But if u wait for another pullback before entering, maybe that will happen after $1+

But im just speculating...


----------



## blueroo (31 August 2006)

Up over 6% this morning already and on no ann. This one is going great!

I must condition myself to the old adage "buy the rumour, sell the fact"


----------



## Fab (31 August 2006)

Is it still worth buying this one at this stage ???


----------



## Sean K (31 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I sold out at $0.80. Very keen to buy back in depending on what the hell is going on. Beverley has massive potential (obviously)
> 
> Am happy to have made some beer money (for a while) over the past 3 weeks. So hard to sell......
> 
> I hope it keeps pushing up for you guys, but I'm trying not to be greedy. It'll probably go to $2.00 tomorrow!




Now in the $0.90s......

 

Perhaps $2.00 isn't that far away.


----------



## stockmaster (31 August 2006)

lolz, u might be true kennas. I have been observing this share for a long time, and believe there are some big investors stockpiling this share steadily in a repeating pattern. I believe this is a very good evidence or indication that the potential is seem to be true and the whole matter is a fact not rumour. The other reason that i believe supporting this argument is the amount of time this rise has been continuing which realli reject the possibilities of speculation and rumouring (though there is no 100% in sharemarket).

I've heard rumour that news shall be out by next Monday, which if true price shall realli increase esp. for the last trade tomorrow. The rise today further increase confidence, though the last trade realli disappointed me. IMO price will start low tomorrow around 90-91c which then gradually increase to around $1 be4 a big trade to end the week.  . DYOR!


----------



## insider (1 September 2006)

Sorry guys but I can't wait to see when this bubble bursts. In my opinion It should be retracing pretty soon... but only after it breaks $1.00 and in about 1-2 months. People are forgetting that they don't mine and and they can't either... But I think AGS is an awesome investment. I wonder how many people are gonna get burnt.


----------



## stockmaster (1 September 2006)

insider, i js have to disagree with u here. Base on the current rise under the support of big buyer, it is realli hard to understand why u believe price will go down. On top the rise, there is IMO a lot of support about the coming ann, some time in Sep. Uranium has rised again this week to 48.5 US.

AGS v PDN, these 2 company is very similar and base on the currect project, there is a high chance that AGS will rise like PDN.  

AGS v CDU(AUM), once again, base on the currect speculation, AGS prob is going to run like AUM.  


IMO i js can't realli see any chance of a decline in the near future. Cheers!


----------



## laurie (1 September 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> Sorry guys but I can't wait to see when this bubble bursts. In my opinion It should be retracing pretty soon... but only after it breaks $1.00 and in about 1-2 months. People are forgetting that they don't mine and and they can't either... But I think AGS is an awesome investment. I wonder how many people are gonna get burnt.




lol insider bought your train ticket for AGS on E-Bay   the only thing that's going to be burnt is the hole in my pocket when the money starts to roll in and the statement that they can't mine is utter crap oh bty JMHO

cheers laurie


----------



## havingfun (1 September 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> imajica, how confident are you? we have seen how cdu has collapsed from a high of 10 to 3, i believe ags is likely to increase at that rate but once a report like CDU is out, it will slump as fast as it rises. Also ASX is watching this share carefully, will they offer another speeding ticket? Remember they are very good at this.
> 
> 
> 
> DYOR



The only reason CDU hit $10 back then was the group of stockbrokers who shorted the **** out of it trying to make a killing and got caught. Because of the lack of shares on issue ,were forced to buy everything they could  way up. Had it not been for them CDU would probably be $5 sitting very comfortably and no-one would have got their fingers burnt.AGS has got nearly 4 times as many shares as CDU had back then.[which is still not a lot compared to some resourse co.]So, yes it could fly,but availability is much better thus reducing the risk of $1 incrument rises in a day.


----------



## pussycat2005 (1 September 2006)

stockmaster, a few days ago when it was 80 cents you were sending out a negative vibe saying it was going to  retrace...

today its hit the 90's in a big way and then retreated on weakness

hardly spruiking material atm 


caution and stop losses in place! if your holding...


----------



## pharaoh (3 September 2006)

Thoughts for the week guys?
I suffered at the hands of down rampers, and got it at 85c and out at 75c, making a loss
Only then to see it come back next day or so and surpass my original entry price

I hate ramping!!!!
If I see anyone blatantly doing it, esp downramping, wich I think is worst than up, i'll publicise it. (I like this forum for the reason above over say HC, which I do use sometimes, but is full of sharks - ASF is great!)

Anyway, enough of that

What do we see the week ahead as doing?

I am considering getting back on. 
But, can anyone help with these simple questions.


Can they mine their uranium - now or down the track
I guess related to Q1, can they build a mine and if so when will it happen
When is the next announcement likely, and what is it likely to contain

Cheers,
Pharoah


----------



## nizar (3 September 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Thoughts for the week guys?
> I suffered at the hands of down rampers, and got it at 85c and out at 75c, making a loss
> Only then to see it come back next day or so and surpass my original entry price
> 
> ...




1) Yes; they can because beverly-4 is an extension of beverly (one of the already operating 3 mines in aust) and so this explains the hype, they will get to production before all the other local explorers
2) All the infrastructure is in place from Beverly mine which is nearby so the transition from explorer to producer in terms of time and capex should be quicker and less expensive than most.
Well it will still take a few years; coz they still need to come up with a JORC (end of the year), and then do more drilling, and then scoping studies, BFS, so maybe end of 2008 at the earliest??
3) No idea; but its been 4 weeks since the last announcement and every passing day brings us closer

Pharoah u should do proper research before investing. I suggest their website and recent presentation may be a good start.


----------



## kariba (3 September 2006)

pharaoh said:
			
		

> Thoughts for the week guys?
> 
> Can they mine their uranium - now or down the track
> I guess related to Q1, can they build a mine and if so when will it happen
> When is the next announcement likely, and what is it likely to contain




Pharoah

Nizar has answered well ... 

Beverley 4 Mile will be mined very easily & very soon. SA government are in support & Beverley already have the license. As mentioned, everything is already in place, & pretty sure it will be the easier ISL process. 

As regards the next announcement: Drill results from the new high-grade zone are due out any day.

cheers


----------



## insider (5 September 2006)

Some people in this forum didn't like the facts that I brought to the table earlier but If everything is positive for AGS and with the beverly mine opening then AGS may even face A possible take over from BHP I think or whoever is closest.


----------



## 56gsa (6 September 2006)

What do people think of todays announcement?  Appears ASX didn't like the 'Bowden to review geophysical logs'  - which appears more honest than the revised version 

market was well spooked before this anyway...  although volume cut in once it went under 80 - support at 80?


----------



## 56gsa (7 September 2006)

More PFN drilling results out this morning with again proviso they could be reviewed after geophysical logs reviewed 

3.0 metres grading 2.11% pU3O8
9.0 metres grading 0.62% pU3O8 
6.5 metres grading 0.82% pU3O8 
9.0 metres grading 0.53% pU3O8 
5.0 metres grading 0.86% pU3O8 
3.0 metres grading 1.35% pU3O8


----------



## Archinos (7 September 2006)

I'm pretty well sure they'll be reviewed - the diamond core is the only way they'll get an accurate count on what they've got. They're using PFN logging - sensitive too lots of factors & they're taking pains to leave a v.big back door open incase later assays come back to bite them; not to mention they're using a rotary mud rig, and unless the hole is washed down thoroughly, even the mud might register (potentially radiogenic material bound in with the clays etc). Having said that, 2%+ is pretty spectacular...


----------



## Halba (7 September 2006)

thats standard practise why worry about it

2%+ U i have never heard of it


----------



## Halba (7 September 2006)

6.5m at 0.82%,9m@ 0.62%, those are also crazy hits


----------



## 56gsa (7 September 2006)

Archinos said:
			
		

> I'm pretty well sure they'll be reviewed - the diamond core is the only way they'll get an accurate count on what they've got. They're using PFN logging - sensitive too lots of factors & they're taking pains to leave a v.big back door open incase later assays come back to bite them; not to mention they're using a rotary mud rig, and unless the hole is washed down thoroughly, even the mud might register (potentially radiogenic material bound in with the clays etc). Having said that, 2%+ is pretty spectacular...




archinos - maybe you can clarify - I thought this was all in-fill drilling - but it appears they are extending the resource (2nd para 2nd page 'continuity of mineralization') - if this is the case are we looking at a bigger deposit than their JORC target resource of 32,000t?
drilling finishes in 2 weeks - how much longer would we expect a JORC compliant resource estimate?


----------



## brisvegas (8 September 2006)

*Today, all of Canada's uranium production is from unconformity-related deposits - Key Lake, Cluff Lake, Rabbit Lake (all now depleted), and McClean Lake and McArthur River deposits. Other large, exceptionally high grade unconformity-related deposits currently being developed include Cigar Lake (averaging almost 20% U3O8, some zones over 50% U3O8). *


			
				Halba said:
			
		

> thats standard practise why worry about it
> 
> 2%+ U i have never heard of it








http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/printable_information_papers/inf26print.htm


----------



## kariba (8 September 2006)

56gsa said:
			
		

> archinos - maybe you can clarify - I thought this was all in-fill drilling - but it appears they are extending the resource (2nd para 2nd page 'continuity of mineralization') - if this is the case are we looking at a bigger deposit than their JORC target resource of 32,000t?
> drilling finishes in 2 weeks - how much longer would we expect a JORC compliant resource estimate?




AGS are doing Infill drilling ... BUT a number of drills are also to extend the resource

cheers


----------



## insider (11 September 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> lol insider bought your train ticket for AGS on E-Bay   the only thing that's going to be burnt is the hole in my pocket when the money starts to roll in and the statement that they can't mine is utter crap oh bty JMHO
> 
> cheers laurie



Hey Laurie just wondering what humble pie tastes like?


----------



## laurie (11 September 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> Hey Laurie just wondering what humble pie tastes like?




insider if you really believe I should eat humble pie so be it,my holding is long term it may be your day today,it will be mine tomorrow   


cheers laurie


----------



## insider (11 September 2006)

yeah good hold on to it... if ya wanna sell it at 2$ make sure you do it and fulfill it... i've made the mistake of making a plan and not sticking to it many times (4 times this year to be excact UXA-UNX-AGS-DYE), selling just before a boom... I think AGS are long term and I wish you the best of luck... honestly... But I don't think you'll need it either. (sometimes I like Stirring a bit)


----------



## laurie (12 September 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> yeah good hold on to it... if ya wanna sell it at 2$ make sure you do it and fulfill it... i've made the mistake of making a plan and not sticking to it many times (4 times this year to be excact UXA-UNX-AGS-DYE), selling just before a boom... I think AGS are long term and I wish you the best of luck... honestly... But I don't think you'll need it either. (sometimes I like Stirring a bit)




No offence taken insider cream on the pie was nice though   

cheers laurie


----------



## 56gsa (12 September 2006)

Anounced 1:18 non-renounceable entitlement issue @ 0.67 - so imagine shares will hover around this level for a while now - prospectus to be released..


----------



## chicken (12 September 2006)

Intresting article...in MineBox news all about Beverly mine bought today at 66cents....looking fantastic.....made my day


----------



## beach (12 September 2006)

gday chicken
                welcome aboard, strapp yourself in. by the way glad to hear that it made your day. regards beach


----------



## ezyTrader (12 September 2006)

Can anyone explain in simple terms to a new trader/investor in the market, how would the prevailing share price interact with the non-renounceable rights issued @67cents? (Note: Current share price @66cents).
If it goes lower?
And if it goes higher?
Or, did I read it wrong ??  

Good time to get in now? Or, after the liquidation/dilution of new shares?


----------



## chicken (14 September 2006)

This one bounced niecly of its low...bought...as I feel...AGS are literally sitting on a Uranium mine.....all good news here....anyone who just got on..enjoy the ride...because it will be a great one...could be a 5 to 6 bager,,,


----------



## ezyTrader (14 September 2006)

I guess it doesn't matter about the entitlements now, does it?


----------



## laurie (14 September 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> This one bounced niecly of its low...bought...as I feel...AGS are literally sitting on a Uranium mine.....all good news here....anyone who just got on..enjoy the ride...because it will be a great one...could be a 5 to 6 bager,,,




It ain't a mine chicken,if it was the sp would be over $2+ it's a leaching process measured in Litres/hr as oppose to Tonnes through a mining process having said that the cost to start up is much cheaper and quicker as the drill holes for infilling drilling I believe are production holes  

cheers laurie


----------



## chicken (16 September 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> It ain't a mine chicken,if it was the sp would be over $2+ it's a leaching process measured in Litres/hr as oppose to Tonnes through a mining process having said that the cost to start up is much cheaper and quicker as the drill holes for infilling drilling I believe are production holes
> 
> cheers laurie



As I understand...because they are sitting on a hugh deposit...larger than PDN in Africa....a mine will be established...not as what you posted....the deposit is worth in the billions....and its there all in black and white as soon as the market wakes up to this fact....32cents is a steal....thats why I posted it could be a 10 bagger,,,,,I bought...make your research...looking all fantastic


----------



## stockmaster (16 September 2006)

chicken, AGS has good potential and has large deposit. However i put more attention on the chart. If u look at chart for the last 2 to 3 months, it has slided significantly and right now it is very hard to say whether it will rise in short term . 

By investing at current situation, i believe u r carrying a very high risk because a big rise from now on really requires an ann. which state a either upgrade or significant discovery which in my opinion very unlikely to come within next few weeks. If u r reallying on external factor such as commodity price, i fink it is once again very unlikely to has further signicant rise because on the drop in demand and carrying effect from oil price. 

I believe under current situation, risk is higher than reward. Sell might be a wise choice if u r a short-medium term investor!


----------



## dutchie (16 September 2006)

I agree with you Stockmaster.

I'll buy if and when it gets to about 50c.

Cheers

Dutchie


----------



## brisvegas (16 September 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> chicken, AGS has good potential and has large deposit. However i put more attention on the chart. If u look at chart for the last 2 to 3 months, it has slided significantly and right now it is very hard to say whether it will rise in short term .
> 
> By investing at current situation, i believe u r carrying a very high risk because a big rise from now on really requires an ann. which state a either upgrade or significant discovery which in my opinion very unlikely to come within next few weeks. If u r reallying on external factor such as commodity price, i fink it is once again very unlikely to has further signicant rise because on the drop in demand and carrying effect from oil price.
> 
> I believe under current situation, risk is higher than reward. Sell might be a wise choice if u r a short-medium term investor!





JORC due last 1/4er of this year , in 2 weeks we are in last 1/4er . 50c with this coming seems improbable yet not impossible . big market tank maybe a catalyst for 50c but barring that i'd be surprised myself . i took a partial at 96c , but still hold substansial from 29c and am completely comfortable . its not what you know but who you know sometimes  :casanova: 


......... bris


----------



## laurie (16 September 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> As I understand...because they are sitting on a hugh deposit...larger than PDN in Africa....a mine will be established...not as what you posted....




It's as I posted a Leaching Process which is what is there NOW they will just extend the pipe from the existing site to the 4 Mile site

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (25 September 2006)

A bit of action occurring around AGS again. A couple of solid days behind it after finding support at $0.70. Might be heading up again...


----------



## Sean K (2 October 2006)

Didn't pick any up around $0.70.   

Looks like it's running again.


----------



## blueroo (2 October 2006)

Got a bit winky about AGS back in August and sold 11k parcel for 64% profit.

Now patting self on back for retaining 12k and hanging in for next thrust upwards


----------



## Broadside (3 October 2006)

last 2 days have again seen very solid buying near the close...perhaps there are drill results coming up again in the next week based on previous announcements.

Great thing about this stock, every time it retraces a little there is clearly plenty of buying to accumulate more, I think there is very smart money in this, look at how strongly it rebounded when it dropped back to low 60s.  Plenty more upside yet, how much who knows until we get JORC compliant resource, but certainly double or treble within 12 months _if_ they continue to deliver the drill results.

And unlike any number of other U hopefuls, they will be able to produce within 3 years.  If they get to that stage it could be five fold or more the current price (but there are a few hurdles to clear before then).


----------



## johnmwu3 (4 October 2006)

AGS got a ann. to ASX than disgarded it, what's the reason ?
Maybe drilling results ?
Any suggestion ?


----------



## SevenFX (5 October 2006)

Can anyone comment on whether ags is coming up to a double top @ 0.955 and maybe fall back to 0.89 support of further still around 0.86 in the coming weeks.

Feedback appreciated on my charts, where It could improve.
Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## Sean K (5 October 2006)

It's only a double top if it actual 'tops'. Perhaps it'll push through?


----------



## Broadside (5 October 2006)

massive buying right now, shows all signs of pushing through


----------



## SevenFX (5 October 2006)

Looks Like it's gonna hit $1, but struggles there, of course.

Tis Kinda a SPECIAL OCCASION....


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## johnmwu3 (5 October 2006)

massive buying.
Maybe drilling news come out ?
Yesterday it discards an ann., maybe just to justify the resource reserve or grade ?


----------



## Sean K (5 October 2006)

I sold all at $0.80.....   

Good luck to those still holding. Takeover spec in the Fin this am. 

This could still do anything...


----------



## johnmwu3 (6 October 2006)

I watched AGS from 40c, havn't buy until 91.5c( the highest price ) , and  later it down and I bought it again at 85c.
According to wave theory, AGS just got the third wave which is the strongest.
I can see it up to 1.2$ at present, maybe 1.6$ further.
Any opp. ?


----------



## laurie (6 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I sold all at $0.80.....
> 
> Good luck to those still holding. Takeover spec in the Fin this am.
> 
> This could still do anything...




Kennas mate did you make a profit? if so well done at the end of the day that's what it's all about hindsight is a great thing what would you say if it fell back to .70c after you sold! there are other fish in the ocean to catch go to it young man   

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (9 October 2006)

Interesting time for AGS.

Speculation of takeover by JV partner, more Beverley 4 Mile results in the wings, chart looking like it could be double topping (bearish), or could form a cup and handle (bullish).....


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## Sean K (9 October 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Kennas mate did you make a profit? if so well done at the end of the day that's what it's all about hindsight is a great thing what would you say if it fell back to .70c after you sold! there are other fish in the ocean to catch go to it young man
> 
> cheers laurie




Yes Laurie. Bought around $0.15.


----------



## ALFguy (16 October 2006)

Anyone noticing AGS making another attempt to push through? currently at 94c...still early!


----------



## Sean K (26 October 2006)

Posted this on Breakouts but should be here too.

Broken up through $1.00 on volume from a nice cup and handle pattern. Needs to hold up here end of day and tomorrow for confirmation, but could really jump from here. Target $1.28 (distance from bottom of cup to rim)

It could be just responding to the general market sentiment towards U stocks past 3 days too.

I'm back in. Picked up a few at $1.01.

Chart looks good for the minute but I'm wary of another pull back. Should be limited now though I think.


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2006)

Definite cup and handle material here. Holding at $1.00. Looks set to burst. Will be interesting to see if this pattern is confirmed with breakout. 

(I wonder if T/A really works? I suppose this will be a time when it doesn't since I'm making the call. All probabilities still...  )


----------



## porkpie324 (30 October 2006)

Just a caution with your chart kennas is the MACD divergance could also be a third wave div too forming. porkpie


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2006)

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Just a caution with your chart kennas is the MACD divergance could also be a third wave div too forming. porkpie




Looks to be a positive divergence about to occur to me. What's the theory about 3rd wave div? cheers.


----------



## porkpie324 (30 October 2006)

Kennas, I was looking at the recent sp highs as against the MACD highs, definate divergance, now I'm no great techy but MACD watchers would have noticed, in t/a MACD div is a strong signal. Now I hav'nt traded Alliance but it does look good. porkpie


----------



## Out Too Soon (30 October 2006)

I'd call it a nervous wobble at the moment  , This is a good one to put chart theories to test, I'm obviously totally ignorant of such so Kennas, Porkpie, can you predict what the sp is about to do?


----------



## Sean K (30 October 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> I'd call it a nervous wobble at the moment  , This is a good one to put chart theories to test, I'm obviously totally ignorant of such so Kennas, Porkpie, can you predict what the sp is about to do?




Chart says $1.28 ish, but once again, it's a probability. 

Back under $1.00 atm indicates that the pattern might breakdown.


----------



## porkpie324 (30 October 2006)

As I mentioned I'm not a great techy, I prefer to look at the fundementals, but as I see AGS its sp is in blue sky territory now, but I do look at charts for trading and take notice of MACD for medium trends and Stochastics for entry & exit points, ie MCR has been good Stochastic trader.porkpie


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Chart says $1.28 ish, but once again, it's a probability.
> 
> Back under $1.00 atm indicates that the pattern might breakdown.





I think the next push for this is in the lead up to the JORC inferred resource that Quasar (afilliate of Heathgate) is due to provide in Dec (exact date not sure) on the Beverly 4 Mile project. So the month of November could be a good one.    This could be very good for the sp, considering the likely resource estimate in situ. Talk is that it could be in the top 5 resources in Australia which would make it huge. 

Takeover rumours still out there. Heathgate may want to take the whole project. 

Pattern still not broken and can still confirm cup and handle, or even could be starting to form a second one. 

Could also be forming a tripple top.   

(The triple top is a reversal pattern made up of three equal highs followed by a break below support. In contrast to the triple bottom, triple tops usually form over a shorter time frame and typically range from 3 to 6 months. Generally speaking, bottoms take longer to form than tops.)

Must be ready to grab a parachute if this is the case.....


----------



## ezyTrader (31 October 2006)

What's the likelihood of a triple top, kennas?


----------



## Sean K (31 October 2006)

ezyTrader said:
			
		

> What's the likelihood of a triple top, kennas?




Too many factors to consider, but it would be confirmed when the sp drops below the support lines. Below $0.90 would be a worry, below $0.70 would be aaaaaahhhhh! I'll sell out at about $0.88/89 if it gets there and look for a re-entry.


----------



## dj_420 (31 October 2006)

hmmm good one to keep a watch on for an entry under 80 cents.


----------



## Out Too Soon (31 October 2006)

I've had a sticky note on my comp screen for the last 2 months reminding myself "HOLD until 2007 at least PLA, AGS, JML, BSG". I have to go back through my newspaper articles, printouts & various notes I've jotted down for the reasons but basically PLA starts mining, AGS as just noted by Kennas (Beverly 4 mile project), JML & BSG? well I had reasons but I'll have to review them again  basically positive things are about to happen with positive influences on sp. I'm starting to believe that following trends & judging market sentiment is more financially rewarding than fundamentals.


----------



## Sean K (2 November 2006)

Closed at record high. Has completed cup and handle and looks set to continue higher from here imo.


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2006)

Up 7% to $1.10. he he. 

Shouldn't gloat too early.


----------



## tmallie (3 November 2006)

Make that 16%............how much more do you think????


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Up 7% to $1.10. he he.
> 
> Shouldn't gloat too early.




$1.17, I can gloat now.   

$1.00 should prove very good support on the downside now, pending any bad news which this company does not provide. They don't know how to do anything than come out with outstanding reports. 

I reckon people are taking positions here expecting Heathgate to buy them out of their 25% stake in Beverly 3 Mile, because they know how good the resource is and why have a junior player on your coat tails when you have eveything prepared in order to start mining almost immediately. I mean, you can walk to the Beverly Mine from the 3 Mile prospect! They could carry the yellow cake by hand to their mill!


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2006)

tmallie said:
			
		

> Make that 16%............how much more do you think????




Could do anything tmallie. Anything. (like go down too  )


----------



## Fab (3 November 2006)

I just bought into this one at 1.16 a bit high but I am hope it will go much much higher. Probably when come out in December


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I just bought into this one at 1.16 a bit high but I am hope it will go much much higher. Probably when come out in December




Good luck Fab!

As I said before I don't think there's too much downside atm. $1.00 should be good support. Having said that, it still needs some good results from drilling, and the inferred JORC in Dec will have to be OK, which I'm sure it will after those initial results already ann. Plus 4 mile is still open in _several _directions. Huge scope for further upgrades...


----------



## laurie (3 November 2006)

Speeding ticket issued   

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (3 November 2006)

Kennas,

I am not a specialist in Uranium exploration process, I am buying this stock purely based on advise and on the strong belief that Australia will and has to change its 3 mine policy.
Could you please explain to me what is the importance of " the inferred JORC in Dec" and is that the last step before they start producing Yellow cake .


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Speeding ticket issued
> 
> cheers laurie




Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!


----------



## Sean K (3 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> I am not a specialist in Uranium exploration process, I am buying this stock purely based on advise and on the strong belief that Australia will and has to change its 3 mine policy.
> Could you please explain to me what is the importance of " the inferred JORC in Dec" and is that the last step before they start producing Yellow cake .




The 'official' first stage resource estimate saying how much uranium is actually in the project. Then they do further drilling and modelling to go to the indicated and measured stages. Then there's pre feasibility studies and bankable feasibility studies.......and then they mine. If the Labor Party allow. Or, maybe, they could get away with saying it's an extention of the Beverley Mine.


----------



## Fab (3 November 2006)

Ok thanks for the explanation. Do you work in the resources sector ?


----------



## nizar (3 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> I am not a specialist in Uranium exploration process, I am buying this stock purely based on advise and on the strong belief that Australia will and has to change its 3 mine policy.
> Could you please explain to me what is the importance of " the inferred JORC in Dec" and is that the last step before they start producing Yellow cake .




LOL its probably the first step.
Im not a "specialist" either by the way.

Basically JORC stands for Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee. They are the people approve a resource. ie. if a resource is JORC-compliant, that means it is compliant with the JORC code, explained in more detail here http://www.jorc.org/main.php

Now there are several levels of confidence of resource estimates:
The first one, which is the weakest and one of least confidence, is Inferred. This is when you've only drilled a portion of the land, but you extrapolate the data. eg. i have 0.2% uranium and so much tonnage with so much depth from so many holes. That means over my whole land, i would have..... even though the drilling has not been done yet. In normal circumstances, this is not sufficient for banks to give funding. Inferred estimates are likely to be WAY OFF. You can have much less, or even much more. Its not accurate and therefore you cannot take confidence in it. Its a good first step, surely, but its not enough for production.

The second level, of greater confidence is Indicated. This is when you have drilled more holes, did more sampling and have drilled a greater area. JORC can approve an Indicated resource.

Now Inferred and Indication means that you have a resource. Measured means that your resource now becomes Reserves.

Once your resource is Measured, which is the highest confidence category (significant drilling), then

So a long way to go for AGS. But they have close infrastructure, connections so maybe its possible for them to be mining in 18 months. But they still have to go through the process to have greater confidence, at least some of the resource should be indicated. Then they can start scoping studies, prefeasibility studies, then BFS, mine construction, and then finally production. But of course u can do all of these on a portion of your mine, which doing drilling to increase the size and confidence of the rest of it.

Well thats my understanding. Every1 please feel free to clarify further and fill the gaps in my knowledge.


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## nizar (3 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!




Kennas,
Remind me again why a speeding ticket is a bad thing (seriously) ??


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## Sean K (3 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Ok thanks for the explanation. Do you work in the resources sector ?




LOL. 

I did make sand castles as a kid down the beach. I did make pretty good ones. Plus, I tunnelled under the back fence when I was about 10. Oh, I did help a mate build a gold mine too, but that was just for fun.   

That speeding ticket will take the sting ut of the price on Monday I think.    Will probably drop back a few % on Monday unfortunately. 

But, on the other hand, I think the reason it ran today was the breakthough $1.00, on top of the recent announcements by the company and the presentation at the mining conference on Wed. Perhaps it was instos jumping on after what they saw?


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## Sean K (3 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> Remind me again why a speeding ticket is a bad thing (seriously) ??




People are pilling into a stock when it's running on momentum and volume expecting an announcement from the company. When there actually is an official 'no news' from the company, it's clear there is no 'new news' so the traders (and some investors) jump off, thus the sp drops. Buy the rumour sell the fact spin. 

However, in the case of AGS, I do not believe it has run purely on momentum and volume day traders. See above post. I hope.


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## nizar (3 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> People are pilling into a stock when it's running on momentum and volume expecting an announcement from the company. When there actually is an official 'no news' from the company, it's clear there is no 'new news' so the traders (and some investors) jump off, thus the sp drops. Buy the rumour sell the fact spin.
> 
> However, in the case of AGS, I do not believe it has run purely on momentum and volume day traders. See above post. I hope.





Oh i see. From what i've seen in practice, that theory does not always play out though...


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## Sean K (3 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Oh i see. From what i've seen in practice, that theory does not always play out though...




No, not always, depends on all factors. See ARU today? Speeding ticket, no 'new news', then down 7%


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## laurie (3 November 2006)

Of course when the price flops down does the ASX steps in and asks "Please Explain" nooooooooooooo   

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (3 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Of course when the price flops down does the ASX steps in and asks "Please Explain" nooooooooooooo
> 
> cheers laurie




You still in Laurie, or back in?

PS, like the avatar.


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## laurie (3 November 2006)

Still in kennas never left it since I got on at .14c was not going to miss another PDN   funny though I was going to buy into PDN at a $1 but put it somewhere else[I thought it will not go on... doh] so I can see now where AGS is at this point in time and say it's still a good buy *BUT* because of it's 25% as oppose to PDN 100% a T/O or JV must be very close so next week maybe $1.5 I' hoping it gets to $2 before anything happens then the rest is extra serving of cream   

cheers laurie


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## dj_420 (4 November 2006)

This stock shows yesterdays trading it broke out from short term resistance. Shows strong short term support, has been tested and held.


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## dj_420 (4 November 2006)

Long term stock shows that enters uptrend then broke support, resumed uptrend and broke support again to enter short down trend. Trended sideways for a period to then resume uptrend. 

key reversal indicators are located during sideways trending, trading begins to tighten before breakout and uptrend resumes.


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## Sean K (4 November 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> This stock shows yesterdays trading it broke out from short term resistance. Shows strong short term support, has been tested and held.




Different T/As have different opinions of when a stock has officially 'broken out'. AGS certainly looks like it has, but some say, it needs to be sustained for 3 days, others say the sp needs to test what should now be support and bounce....those time frames probably mean you actually miss the short term opportunity but it's a safer long term play, so you don't jump on 'false' breakouts.. food for thought.


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## dj_420 (4 November 2006)

thanks kennas

ok so if there is retracement should hit old resistance levels and hold to be a proper breakout, and build up base of support. and if breaks back below resistance its a false breakout.


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## Sean K (4 November 2006)

dj_420 said:
			
		

> thanks kennas
> 
> ok so if there is retracement should hit old resistance levels and hold to be a proper breakout, and build up base of support. and if breaks back below resistance its a false breakout.




Roger. I suppose it a bit of semantics about short and long term breakouts too...


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## Fab (6 November 2006)

It's looking good to me


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

Yes, very happy.   

I hope this is insto buying and not speculators.


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

It's reached my second target of $1.28.

I am holding as I think the Quasar JORC estimate is going to pump this even more.


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

Just gotta post another chart on this.   

No real big trades that I can see meaning it's mostly small investors? Come on Heathgate, gobble me up. $2.00 will be a bargain at this rate.


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## Fab (6 November 2006)

Looks like this stock has not finished to rise after the interesection annoucement after end of trade today


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

Have you read the ann Fab? I'm not sure if I like it or not.   Having one of the bits of equipment bust is a bit of a downer. The highlight intersections look OK.


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## HOMER J (6 November 2006)

sounds great to me


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## Fab (6 November 2006)

Kennas,

to be honest I have scan through so probably your comment is more appropriate. I believe we will now have to wait until wednesday to see what is going to happen


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## insider (6 November 2006)

Am I the only one here worried about the fact this company is valued so much but don't profits... Should we expect them to be taken over by heathgate? Looks like that's what most expect


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## Fab (6 November 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> Am I the only one here worried about the fact this company is valued so much but don't profits...




What do you mean ???


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> Am I the only one here worried about the fact this company is valued so much but don't profits... Should we expect them to be taken over by heathgate? Looks like that's what most expect




The takeover speculation could be assisting, but it's also just general U phoria atm.


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## Broadside (6 November 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> Am I the only one here worried about the fact this company is valued so much but don't profits... Should we expect them to be taken over by heathgate? Looks like that's what most expect




I am not worried at all, they are going to be a producer in the near (2-3 years) future if they stay independent...how many U explorers on the Aussie market are turning a profit? there are only 3 mines!  Has PDN turned a profit? look at its market cap.  There is some U euphoria but AGS is all quality.


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> I am not worried at all, they are going to be a producer in the near (2-3 years) future if they stay independent...how many U explorers on the Aussie market are turning a profit? there are only 3 mines!  Has PDN turned a profit? look at its market cap.  There is some U euphoria but AGS is all quality.




The really big plus for this company is that Quasar are an experienced U mob and have Heathgate's expertise. All of this 8km away at the Beverley mine.


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## insider (6 November 2006)

The amount of insider trading that goes on in AGS is nuts it's always been like this... Very disapointing


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> The amount of insider trading that goes on in AGS is nuts it's always been like this... Very disapointing



You think the last few days was due to the ann, which was let out by company staff?


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## Fab (7 November 2006)

I thought this one might go up much more today after yesterday announcement. Any explanation why?


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## HOMER J (7 November 2006)

I think its just profit taking because of the run its had. gapped up strongly on open after the announcement but probably a lot of traders in it that couldnt resist taking profits.


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## Fab (7 November 2006)

That is what I thought too. Are there any new results expected on this one anytime soon?


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## laurie (7 November 2006)

Interest rate rise may have spooked a few needing money somewhere else   

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

I am a long term player with AGS but it might me an opportunity to switch to something that has not run. I am keeping money in AGS for the moment because I have cash to place elsewhere and I see the long term potential in this company, especially, of course, B4. But, if I was short term trading, well, it's had a damn good run! What is next? 

This time in the market is an awesome opportunity to be in and out very quickly and make 10% within minutes. BUT, don't *lose * 10% within minutes!!!

Or, think LONG TERM!!!!!!!!!


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## laurie (7 November 2006)

Dangerous game you could be playing the way the market is kennas I was just about to do the exact same thing with BKY not doing much around the .77c mark moving sideways today it closed .915c   

cheers laurie


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (8 November 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> I am not worried at all, they are going to be a producer in the near (2-3 years) future if they stay independent...how many U explorers on the Aussie market are turning a profit? there are only 3 mines!  Has PDN turned a profit? look at its market cap.   There is some U euphoria but AGS is all quality.




Have a look at PDN's BFS, look at current 'U' prices in comparison, tonnage rates from LH to be mined (all on spot price delivery). Look at K which is to be brought into construction in late 07 and its aforementioned specifics as well.

Considering that LH is now staffed with experienced personel, plant is 95 percent commisioned and production is immenent, more than likely earlier than expected. They seemed to have covered most of the angles 

Consider PDN's Oz specific exploration tenements, VUL aquisition and their excellent management team. Seems to me they will be the only new 'U' outfit to take avantage of the euphoria and deliver 'U', at decades high commodity prices. Their market cap is well undervalued.


As for Palladin making a profit as of today, well they made a cool 3 million net on their TAM aquisition in DYL not to mention the profits on their initial transaction in DYL. This is not the first time they have done well out of their company share trades either.


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## Sean K (8 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Dangerous game you could be playing the way the market is kennas I was just about to do the exact same thing with BKY not doing much around the .77c mark moving sideways today it closed .915c
> 
> cheers laurie



Cheers Laurie. I am holding less stocks atm than I have in the past 3 years. 20 down from about 45. Will still be taking things off the table when I think things are too toppy or frothy.

I'll be keeping AGS until JORC, which I hope will give it an even bigger boost. Hoping the buy the rumour sell the fact scenario doesn't play out.


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## Sean K (8 November 2006)

Looks like this might be off a bit today. Lots of profit taking after hitting record $1.47.


----------



## Broadside (8 November 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Have a look at PDN's BFS, look at current 'U' prices in comparison, tonnage rates from LH to be mined (all on spot price delivery). Look at K which is to be brought into construction in late 07 and its aforementioned specifics as well.
> 
> Considering that LH is now staffed with experienced personel, plant is 95 percent commisioned and production is immenent, more than likely earlier than expected. They seemed to have covered most of the angles
> 
> ...




Freeballing my response was not having a crack at Paladin it was to the comment that AGS hasn't turned a profit, some companies are much closer to production than others and I used PDN as a classic case, being on the cusp of production.    There are some U wannabees who haven't even discovered a resource who are being priced at ridiculous levels.  I see AGS as being producer within 2-3 years.


----------



## Fab (10 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Cheers Laurie. I am holding less stocks atm than I have in the past 3 years. 20 down from about 45. Will still be taking things off the table when I think things are too toppy or frothy.
> 
> I'll be keeping AGS until JORC, which I hope will give it an even bigger boost. Hoping the buy the rumour sell the fact scenario doesn't play out.





When is JORC due to be released ? Looks like it is trying to consolidate around $1.25


----------



## Sean K (10 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> When is JORC due to be released ? Looks like it is trying to consolidate around $1.25




"later this year" by Quasar. 

I'm going to call them in the next few days and see if they can give me an a better idea.


----------



## Broadside (10 November 2006)

the AGM should be very informative on this point and also the way forward once JORCed


----------



## Fab (10 November 2006)

Wow what is happening now . Up 8% after consolidating around 1.25


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## Fab (10 November 2006)

Over 10% increase that is looking very very interesting.   :


----------



## Halba (10 November 2006)

everyone has forgotten that PDN has nearly hedged 1/3 of its production in the first contracts so its not exactly going to gain big on its initial production


----------



## Fab (10 November 2006)

Halba,

Ok what does that mean with regards to AGS ?


----------



## Out Too Soon (10 November 2006)

It means that unlike Croesus Gold they won't be in receivership before they start to get something out of the ground, not that I believe PDN could suffer this fate, I just have a cross to bear regards Croesus.


----------



## Fab (13 November 2006)

This stock keeps on surprising me. After a big rise it still holds very well in a pretty depress resources market today


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

Halba said:
			
		

> everyone has forgotten that PDN has nearly hedged 1/3 of its production in the first contracts so its not exactly going to gain big on its initial production




There seems to be some confusion about this.
One article last week stated 25% had been hedged. On the weekend the fin review said "less than 50%" and now Halba reckons 1/3.

I have checked the announcements and while production has agreed to be sold via contracts, NO PRICE WAS LOCKED IN. Production has been forward sold, yes, but the *price will be set at time of delivery*.

2,450,000lb was sold to a major US utility:
http://www.paladinresources.com.au/...naugural_Yellowcake_Sales Contract_for_LH.pdf

2,080,000lb is to be sold to another US utility:
http://www.paladinresources.com.au/..._yellowcake_sales_contract secured for LH.pdf

Again, the price will be determined at time of delivery. This is clearly stated in both announcements.

I suggest every1 does their own due diligence before choosing where to invest their hard earned.

And all this negative publicity wouldnt be doing paladin any favours.

As to your comment, i think PDN will gain MASSIVELY on first production. It willl be their first earnings, and nobody knows how high the uranium price will be by then. The masses are only starting to catch on. LH is the first new uranium mine in production in the last 25 years. PDN is a winner.


----------



## Fab (13 November 2006)

up we go again AGS is now in the green. I like it. Not sure so why it is keeping this strong momentum


----------



## Sean K (13 November 2006)

$1.25 proving to be good short term support for AGS. 

Come on Quasar, where's that JORC! I think we have to wait till Dec guys. In the mean time lets hope the overall market holds up ok.


----------



## ezyTrader (13 November 2006)

Hopefully, not too long, I'm tipping this in the Nov comp!  :


----------



## Sean K (15 November 2006)

It has consolidated really well. Better than expected. Looks on the way up again to me.


----------



## Fab (15 November 2006)

indeed Kennas,

I like this stock more every day


----------



## Sean K (16 November 2006)

Bit of an off day today, along with everything else just about. Took a stumble to $1.25 and quickly found buying support. Days are ticking down to the Quasar JORC on Beverley 4 Mile. Could be a company maker for them this result. Or, could wreck them. We're all assuming it's going to be a large high quality resource, but there's still risk. Expectations might be too high? I hope not. 

Formed a bit of a pennant, in an uptrend. Positive.


----------



## Fab (19 November 2006)

I am assuming ags should go back up on monday the same as SMM and pdn as the uranium spot price went up over night. Is that a fair assumption ?


----------



## Sean K (19 November 2006)

Possible. SMMs move was very encouraging and might flow through to others. I'm waiting to make sure this holds above $1.20. I think a break down from that might be short term negative. Looks like it's sliding that way atm. Might get out in the short term if it does that. A break above $1.38/40 would be very, very good.


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2006)

Ann out. Further high grade results from Beverley 4. JORC out on the 'high grade' area of the deposit by the end of the year. Must be still on schedule. Good news. 

For Maltese Bulls info. Check the thread before you claim I have picked this after it has run.


----------



## Fab (20 November 2006)

Indeed results are looking good but the share price is not moving much at this stage


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Indeed results are looking good but the share price is not moving much at this stage



Up 6% will do me for the moment. The sp was heading down the past few days, so this is good. Needs to keep above $1.20 for sustained up move, and this could do it.


----------



## laurie (20 November 2006)

I'm amazed why there are even sellers so close to a JORC maybe I'm missing something   

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (20 November 2006)

I think the market is now grabbing the importance of these new results as AGS is currently moving up strongly


----------



## Sean K (20 November 2006)

Looks like the pennant might follow though with the expected price action. Hopefully!!   Target from break up $1.80. (length of pole after the breakout from pattern $1.00 to $1.40ish = .40, break from $1.40 + .40 = $1.80) Not confirmed yet, need to clear $1.40ish. 

This might be ambitious, but Beverley just looks like an absolute monty now.


----------



## laurie (20 November 2006)

Thanks for the charts kennas I do appreciate your effect wish I knew as much as you do instead using just my gut feeling  

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (21 November 2006)

I assume that today nuclear annoucement should push this stock higher as SMM, PDN and all other U players


----------



## Sean K (21 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I assume that today nuclear annoucement should push this stock higher as SMM, PDN and all other U players



You would think so, but who knows? Most commods up, US steady, down day yesterday, so perhaps it'll be all good today.


----------



## johnmwu3 (21 November 2006)

IT WILL take until February for the full implications of the flooding at Cameco's Cigar Lake uranium development in Canada to be known, giving more impetus to the rising uranium price.



Cameco and joint venture partner Cogema Resources previously advised they would be able to update the market with a new development timetable and any effect on reserves in January 2007.

Overnight, however, Cameco said revised capital costs and timelines would be available in February next year.

When news of the flooding broke a month ago, it helped propel the uranium price through the $US60 per pound barrier for the first time in history, putting a rocket under the share price of many junior uranium stocks.

According to consultants, UxC uranium is currently fetching $US62.50/lb.

Cigar Lake was originally due to come online in early 2008 with an annual production of 18 million pounds of uranium.


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

I am just wondering why U companies such as PDN and SMM are booming at the moment and AGS is not going up as much as I would think there should be some correlation between these 3 companies ?


----------



## Broadside (22 November 2006)

give it time...the AGM is tomorrow it should be interesting how they see the way forward from hear


----------



## Brissydave (22 November 2006)

I would think that one reason AGS is not running as hard as it could, is simply the "three mine policy" .... many supposedly sophisticated investors are still posting questions on this and other forums, regarding the status of Beverly and AGS's holdings, and whether it can be mined. I have seen posts that indicate that there is a belief that the three mine policy would have to be changed before the Beverly/AGS project could go ahead. 

If informed posters to this and other forums are still doubtful, just think what the ma and pa investors are thinking ... 

Mind you as I write this AGS is approaching all time high .... cool

Cheers ... Dave


----------



## bigt (22 November 2006)

AGS hasn't taken as much of a hit recently, unlike PDN and SMM, so the recent action for these 2 are probably a combination of a bounce-back and renewed public interest in U stocks. AGS still has, IMO, a lot of public "wow" factor, or x-factor...call it what you like...and as such keep the SP stable, without large retraces after overbuying. 

Just the opinion of a very fresh newbie...but AGS will have its day soon (and many of them).


----------



## nizar (22 November 2006)

Brissydave said:
			
		

> I would think that one reason AGS is not running as hard as it could, is simply the "three mine policy" .... many supposedly sophisticated investors are still posting questions on this and other forums, regarding the status of Beverly and AGS's holdings, and whether it can be mined. I have seen posts that indicate that there is a belief that the three mine policy would have to be changed before the Beverly/AGS project could go ahead.




3 mine policy doesnt affect AGS.
Beverly 4 is not a "new" mine as such but an extension of Beverly which is an existing mine.

Thats what all the fuss is about and thats why AGS is like up 6-fold since the beginning of the year 24c.
Dont tell me it hasnt been running hard.


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I am just wondering why U companies such as PDN and SMM are booming at the moment and AGS is not going up as much as I would think there should be some correlation between these 3 companies ?



LOL. I initially bought AGS at $0.15 last year. Bought and sold a few times since, but holy goat batman, what more do you want!


----------



## nizar (22 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> but holy goat batman, what more do you want!




Exactly.
This, along with BMN is one of the best performing stocks of the year.


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> LOL. I initially bought AGS at $0.15 last year. Bought and sold a few times since, but holy goat batman, what more do you want!



Yep you are right . I almost bought a stack at 0.40 when a friend of mine advise me that this one was going to run very hard. I got in recently at 1.16 and I am very happy so far in the way it is going . I probably wrote my post a bit early in the day as now it is running very strongly and I am hoping it will continue tomorrow with the AGM


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Yep you are right . I almost bought a stack at 0.40 when a friend of mine advise me that this one was going to run very hard. I got in recently at 1.16 and I am very happy so far in the way it is going . I probably wrote my post a bit early in the day as now it is running very strongly and I am hoping it will continue tomorrow with the AGM



Good luck Fab. AGM could be interesting, but I think they've kept the market pretty well informed of what's going on. Perhaps the tine of their comments on Beverley 4 will give a clue to where it's going. They may also give hints to possible future arrangements with the operation of the mine with Quasar. 

At this stage, I am cognisant that the sp has run very hard, even though I was happy to pick some more up at $1.33 a few days ago. The market cap is getting to the point that it's factoring in a LOT of upside at Beverley. Hopefully the JORC estimate warrants this!


----------



## nizar (22 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Good luck Fab. AGM could be interesting, but I think they've kept the market pretty well informed of what's going on. Perhaps the tine of their comments on Beverley 4 will give a clue to where it's going. They may also give hints to possible future arrangements with the operation of the mine with Quasar.
> 
> At this stage, I am cognisant that the sp has run very hard, even though I was happy to pick some more up at $1.33 a few days ago. The market cap is getting to the point that it's factoring in a LOT of upside at Beverley. Hopefully the JORC estimate warrants this!




Agree.
$330million is pretty expensive for no resource stock with a bunch of "could be's", "possibly's", and alot of "potential"


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

I did not look at the market cap but there seems to be some strong resistance at $1.50


----------



## nizar (22 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I did not look at the market cap


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2006)

Post 245



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Looks like the pennant might follow though with the expected price action. Hopefully!!   Target from break up $1.80. (length of pole after the breakout from pattern $1.00 to $1.40ish = .40, break from $1.40 + .40 = $1.80) Not confirmed yet, need to clear $1.40ish.
> 
> This might be ambitious, but Beverley just looks like an absolute monty now.




Even though the market cap's climbing this is the technical target. 

I will buy more on a definate break through.


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

>



If you only go by market cap you would never buy into stock like PDN


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

Is there any chance we might hear about JORC result at tomorrow AGM or is it likely to be released after that ?


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Is there any chance we might hear about JORC result at tomorrow AGM or is it likely to be released after that ?



Company's are supposed to release any market sensitive information to the market as soon as possible so that rumours/insider info etc don't get out. I think. So, I don't think so. They should ann that sort of thing as soon as the info comes to hand and they have time to prep an ann. I think.


----------



## Fab (22 November 2006)

thanks Kennas that makes sense. Is JORC due in December ?


----------



## laurie (22 November 2006)

Tell you what you will know the JORC will be out soon when the sp goes ballistic  this is not something that can be kept a total secret  

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> thanks Kennas that makes sense. Is JORC due in December ?



In their last ann they stated that the resource estimate for the 'high grade part of Four Mile West is scheduled for completion _later this year_'. 

I assume when they provide this result that they will give an indication of when estimates for East and South will be produced. If they have done sufficient drilling in those regions.


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

Not much in the announcement today but the share is testing the 1.50 resistance at the moment. It will be interesting to see if it can break it


----------



## Sean K (23 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Not much in the announcement today but the share is testing the 1.50 resistance at the moment. It will be interesting to see if it can break it



I think it will inevitably. What an awesome chart....

I've tried to run some lines along support and resistance points and it all looks good to be charging on. It's hardly taken a step back. 

Actually traded at $1.505 so lets hope for a close above the resistance around $1.47 and then another surge.

As I've said before though, market cap getting pretty heady for a minor producer and explorer, although the quality of the explorations projects are without question, fantastic. 

One thing that has been overlooked is the M1 and 2 au/cu prospects in Arkaroola. These have great potential to turn into an econmic mine also. Further upside here.


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

I will get excited when it breaks the 1.50 mark with good volume. At what price did you buy Kennas? I bought few weeks ago at 1.16. I am very happy with the result so far.


----------



## Sean K (23 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I will get excited when it breaks the 1.50 mark with good volume. At what price did you buy Kennas? I bought few weeks ago at 1.16. I am very happy with the result so far.



Average about $1.10. 

I bought back in at $1.00, $1.25 and $1.33 ish.


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

Trying to break the 1.50 resistance. Hopefully it will finish higher which would be a very good sign.


----------



## Sean K (23 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Trying to break the 1.50 resistance. Hopefully it will finish higher which would be a very good sign.



Finished at $1.58. All time high. 

 :jump:


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

Yep Kennas,

I am very happy about it too so I am not too sure what is the next resistance from reading few recent post on this forum $1.80 might be the next target. If the JORC result are good god knows how far this one will run.
Maybe we have the next PDN


----------



## Sean K (23 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Yep Kennas,
> 
> I am very happy about it too so I am not too sure what is the next resistance from reading few recent post on this forum $1.80 might be the next target. If the JORC result are good god knows how far this one will run.
> Maybe we have the next PDN



Technically, as mentioned, from break from the pennant - $1.80, but it's just a probability, maybe 30% chance I think from an analysis I read recently of TA probabilities. 

With such a jump, one of a couple of things could happen tomorrow. 1. Traders jump on because it's going blue sky and push the stock exponentially. (and then maybe a sell off in the afternoon) Or, 2. holders will look at this and say, hey, a market cap of around $380 mil is crazy for something that is still 'potential'. Plus, I've just made 50% so I'll take some profits.....

I think Beverley 4 Mile is going to be the next U mine due to the JV and Beverley being just down the road for all the logistic support etc. 

I think it will pull back again on profit taking (I may do that again), but will be buying any significant dips between now and the anns by the end of the year. 

It could be getting out of the cheap and easy takeover range for anyone like Heathgate now too....At this point an offer of about $2.00 would be required perhaps.


----------



## laurie (23 November 2006)

I think there is 1 more drilling result to come before the JORC which IMHO will be delayed because they will be too embarrassed by the results so the next leg up will be $1.70 then blue sky  

cheers laurie


----------



## jemma (23 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> I think there is 1 more drilling result to come before the JORC which IMHO will be delayed because they will be too embarrassed by the results so the next leg up will be $1.70 then blue sky
> 
> cheers laurie




Why will they be too embarrassed??? Please explain.


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Technically, as mentioned, from break from the pennant - $1.80, but it's just a probability, maybe 30% chance I think from an analysis I read recently of TA probabilities.
> 
> With such a jump, one of a couple of things could happen tomorrow. 1. Traders jump on because it's going blue sky and push the stock exponentially. (and then maybe a sell off in the afternoon) Or, 2. holders will look at this and say, hey, a market cap of around $380 mil is crazy for something that is still 'potential'. Plus, I've just made 50% so I'll take some profits.....
> 
> ...




Kennas,

PDN if you go by its market valuation is way overvalue that hasn't stop it going up for 2 years. Why couldn't AGS do the same ?


----------



## laurie (23 November 2006)

jemma said:
			
		

> Why will they be too embarrassed??? Please explain.




Just a comment in jest embarrassed as in having heaps of Uranium maybe more than they thought of  :  : 

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (23 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> PDN if you go by its market valuation is way overvalue that hasn't stop it going up for 2 years. Why couldn't AGS do the same ?



I suppose we should compare PDNs resource base v what AGS come up with to really make a judgement. That's a bit hard when there's no JORC on Beverley yet, and the one they come out with will just be the 'high grade' zone. Difficult.


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2006)

Now this is just geting silly. $1.74....  I would normally be taking some profits but perhaps a takeover is actually in the wings. That $1.80 price target has pretty much been reached.  

Will have to get another speeding ticket for this.


----------



## chris1983 (24 November 2006)

welldone guys.  I knew this would of been a good play when they dropped down to 60!  too bad I didnt get any.  Looks like the jorc resource will be good?  anyway goodluck.


----------



## laurie (24 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> I think there is 1 more drilling result to come before the JORC which IMHO will be delayed because they will be too embarrassed by the results so the next leg up will be $1.70 then blue sky
> 
> cheers laurie




That's gone next $1.95  

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (24 November 2006)

I have decided to let it run to $20


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I have decided to let it run to $20



LOL!!!!!
I'll be buying everyone a yacht if it does that. 

This JORC is going to have to be impressive. Remember they only have 25% of it.


----------



## Fab (24 November 2006)

How many shares did you buy ?


----------



## Rafa (24 November 2006)

Don't get me started with the yatch again...!   
But, i'll take one...
we'll have to do a time-share on prospector


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> How many shares did you buy ?



 I actually don't have many due to my stupid policy of not putting more than 2% of money on a speccie and 5% of my equity on an 'investment'. And I didn't even put 2% on this. Maybe 0.5%.   It's a good policy though. Has saved my ar#s@e a few times.


----------



## Broadside (24 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> LOL!!!!!
> I'll be buying everyone a yacht if it does that.
> 
> This JORC is going to have to be impressive. Remember they only have 25% of it.




the JORC will be great and the other zones are getting bigger all the time, plus they have other promising projects on the go, though B4M is being prioritised...this rise is nothing to do with takeover...if and when that happens it will be $4 plus, this is just rerating based on what they have discovered thus far, but the penny hasn't fully dropped in the market.  Read the summary of the AGM by Agent-86 on Hotcopper it is very informative.  (I hold heaps avge 40c.)


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> Read the summary of the AGM by Agent-86 on Hotcopper it is very informative.  (I hold heaps avge 40c.)



Thanks mate, but to be quite honest, HC is a load of c@r#ap and I would not follow anyone's recommendation on that forum. Good luck on AGS!


----------



## Broadside (24 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Thanks mate, but to be quite honest, HC is a load of c@r#ap and I would not follow anyone's recommendation on that forum. Good luck on AGS!




you're entitled to your opinion (and I agree it is shark infested if you don't know who can be trusted) but there are some very knowledgeable posters on AGS there and if you want a good summary of the AGM it is there to see.  As for AGS I am very confident it will deliver.


----------



## Sean K (24 November 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> you're entitled to your opinion (and I agree it is shark infested if you don't know who can be trusted) but there are some very knowledgeable posters on AGS there and if you want a good summary of the AGM it is there to see.  As for AGS I am very confident it will deliver.



Cheers Broadside, I am sure there are some good posters over there, but too much information can create too much noise. I am very happy with the quality of posters on ASF and don't need to go anywhere else. I would never claim to know all there is about stock picking, or interpreting company reports, but I'm happy with what I understand about this one. For now. Thanks.


----------



## Fab (24 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Cheers Broadside, I am sure there are some good posters over there, but too much information can create too much noise. I am very happy with the quality of posters on ASF and don't need to go anywhere else. I would never claim to know all there is about stock picking, or interpreting company reports, but I'm happy with what I understand about this one. For now. Thanks.



What is ASF and where I can access it from ?


----------



## nizar (24 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> What is ASF and where I can access it from ?




You are on it now. ASF is this forum.

Broadside: i agree HC has some value. Though i no longer visit but i do recall there were some quality posters there. What do you expect, They have 70,000 members. Even if there are 65,000 rampers, 5,000 is still HEAPS!


----------



## Fab (24 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> You are on it now. ASF is this forum.
> 
> Broadside: i agree HC has some value. Though i no longer visit but i do recall there were some quality posters there. What do you expect, They have 70,000 members. Even if there are 65,000 rampers, 5,000 is still HEAPS!



Thanks Nizar. I should have given a bit more thoughts before posting my question


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2006)

Anyone taking profits? Looks to have run a bit hard to me.


----------



## Rafa (27 November 2006)

but the volume is reasonable (above the average anyway, tho not by much) and the % gain seems to be rather more than simply a few peoples over exuberance...

something must be up?


----------



## Caliente (27 November 2006)

quite sad I didn't jump on this one really 

Its just been going from strength to strength!

Best to all AGS holders ^_^

-Caliente


----------



## Fab (27 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Anyone taking profits? Looks to have run a bit hard to me.



I will not sell now so I think this one is due for a correction now I thought the same when it got to $1 and it kept going up and up.
Relative strengh index appears to be very close to 100 which is normally a sign that it should correct.


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I will not sell now so I think this one is due for a correction now I thought the same when it got to $1 and it kept going up and up.
> Relative strengh index appears to be very close to 100 which is normally a sign that it should correct.



All the indicators are saying overbought. I'm like you though, wanting to hold. I sold completely out at around $0.75 thinking it had gone to far, and managed to get back in early enough for this run but, gee, it's looking toppy.


----------



## stockmaster (27 November 2006)

The trend for this share is bit irregular, I believe there are a lot of big buyer beyond the market. It seems to be bit risky now, but then again the reward might be very unexpectable. Keep watching!


Cheers!


----------



## Fab (27 November 2006)

It might get another kick when Jorc is released


----------



## michael_selway (27 November 2006)

stockmaster said:
			
		

> The trend for this share is bit irregular, I believe there are a lot of big buyer beyond the market. It seems to be bit risky now, but then again the reward might be very unexpectable. Keep watching!
> 
> 
> Cheers!




yeah this one has absolutely gone crazy

thx

MS


----------



## laurie (27 November 2006)

I rather be on than in and out this one can catch you out big time if you are trying to get back in if the sell side is very thin   

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (28 November 2006)

Today will be interesting . I am expecting it to correct but who knows with AGS. I guess it can not keep rising for ever   
If a correction happen I think it won't be for too long


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Today will be interesting . I am expecting it to correct but who knows with AGS. I guess it can not keep rising for ever
> If a correction happen I think it won't be for too long



Will see some profit taking I think.


----------



## Fab (28 November 2006)

Yes I believe so Kennas. This might give a floor to the SP


----------



## 56gsa (28 November 2006)

i think i'll bail for the moment - what a ride - been on this since 41 and was almost going to sell when it passed 50....

reluctant to sell because it just doesn't stop but assuming 255m shares @ $1.85, and 8000t of U - its 25% share of the estimated deposit - this gives AGS an EV of $26 - that is getting towards producer status which it may well become but its not there yet.  Of course this ignores 1) other projects of AGS  and 2) any possible increase in size of deposit when JORC is released  -  but that would have to be substantial from original estimate of 32t ....


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Yes I believe so Kennas. This might give a floor to the SP



I'd like to see it hold above $1.70 and consolidate for a bit. Otherwise, if things go generally pear shaped, it's back to $1.40 imo.


----------



## Fab (28 November 2006)

It is holding very well at the moment. I am quite impressed by this one as I thought it would correct much more than that after the meteoric rise of the last few weeks. This is a very good sign


----------



## Sean K (29 November 2006)

Crystal ball stuff, but what I'm looking for here is new start of a consolidation period with the chart forming another beautiful little pennant to have it set for a push on through $2.00.   

Might be dreaming, but would be nice. Hopefully this pattern pans out for us.


----------



## Sean K (30 November 2006)

Pattern is starting to form. Break though $1.90 would give me a price target of about $2.50.   Fanciful stuff perhaps, but if the JORC is enormous and as high a quality as expected, who knows?   I'll be topping up on another break up I think.


----------



## kaleon (30 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I will not sell now so I think this one is due for a correction now I thought the same when it got to $1 and it kept going up and up.
> Relative strengh index appears to be very close to 100 which is normally a sign that it should correct.





C,mon!! You should know better than that if you really understood technical analysis. Don't expect to buy back on dips below 30. Buy back on dips below 60. This is a sign of a stock going places


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2006)

Get set for another take off in AGS. 

Break through $1.90 very bullish, while break under $1.75 could be bad news. 

Primed to go either way, but it is in an uptrend....

On the other had, will it go sideways for a while? Doubtful at this point with the JORC due. It will either be great and the sp will go up, or worse than expected and crash. Can't see anything in the middle.


----------



## laurie (1 December 2006)

Well at least you covered yourself kennas   

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (1 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Well at least you covered yourself kennas
> 
> cheers laurie



I'm no fence sitter Laurie!


----------



## Sean K (4 December 2006)

Well, looks to be taking the downward path to me. If I was trading it short term, then I'd sell it if it broke under $1.75 today. However, Quasar JORC due this month, so I'm holding. Plus, got in pretty early so expect there to be consolidation periods. Next real support down at $1.40 which is a bit concerning. But I'm not sure if it could go back there before the JORC comes out. Surely punters are waiting on that......


----------



## Fab (4 December 2006)

OOps correcting badly at the moment. Probably not a bad sign as it had run too strongly in my opinion to keep it going for too long. Indeed JORC release should be the trigger of uptrend or downtrend


----------



## Fab (4 December 2006)

Free fall now. It will be good when the asx closes for limiting the loss for today


----------



## nizar (4 December 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Free fall now. It will be good when the asx closes for limiting the loss for today




Its probably better for the stock longer term now that the gap between 1.59 and 1.65 is filled.


----------



## Fab (4 December 2006)

Yep. - 10% so today. It is a pretty big drop but I keep faith on it. Not selling. Can only be better tomorrow


----------



## Sean K (4 December 2006)

It's come back ok from the $1.56 low. Still plenty of buyers out there.


----------



## laurie (4 December 2006)

What's the bet if I sold today tomorrow the JORC will be released via a trading halt and I would not get in! sorry I'm toooo cautious at this stage to even think of doing that must admit there are those that have guts   

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (5 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> What's the bet if I sold today tomorrow the JORC will be released via a trading halt and I would not get in! sorry I'm toooo cautious at this stage to even think of doing that must admit there are those that have guts
> 
> cheers laurie




Yep I am the same as you Laurie, I am waiting for the JORC results to be released this should set up the trend for this stock.


----------



## Fab (5 December 2006)

It looks like there is some buying power behind this one as it never go down for very long


----------



## laurie (5 December 2006)

stop losses being trigged maybe   

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (5 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> stop losses being trigged maybe
> 
> cheers laurie



I agree, this was yesterdays action. Cleaned out the short termers perhaps? I hope $1.70 forms some support now. Would be another good point to bounce from..  Fingers crossed.


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

Boucing on $1.70 resistance at the moment. Great stuff


----------



## Out Too Soon (8 December 2006)

Overdue for a retrace, other resource stocks that start producing next year or so have all been through it while AGS has just gone up & up.


----------



## Chief Wigam (9 December 2006)

Hard to complain about the retrace.
Still my best stock purchase ever.
B. 18c.


----------



## bigdog (12 December 2006)

AGS SP is moving upwards today and up 9 cents to $1.77
-- been quite for over one week
-- is this the start of something big?

JORG should be not far away

Any news or rumours out there?


----------



## Sean K (12 December 2006)

bigdog said:
			
		

> AGS SP is moving upwards today and up 9 cents to $1.77
> -- been quite for over one week
> -- is this the start of something big?
> 
> ...




No news, no more rumours, just the facts that Quasar are scheduled to produce their JORC on B4Mile before the end of the year. 

Hopefully it exceeds expectations. If it's ordinary then SPs will suffer.


----------



## Sean K (15 December 2006)

Consolidation continues. Formed a bit of a pennant. Seems neither buyers nor sellers are winning this battle at the moment. Everone's just waiting for the ann I suppose which will determine which way it goes from here. Up, or down from the triangle......


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Consolidation continues. Formed a bit of a pennant. Seems neither buyers nor sellers are winning this battle at the moment. Everone's just waiting for the ann I suppose which will determine which way it goes from here. Up, or down from the triangle......




Looks like up. Currently trading at $1.84, about where the circle is. Early in the day. Not confirmed yet, but prospective.


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2006)

Couple of $100K ish trades gone through too. Vely Intelesting.


----------



## Fab (18 December 2006)

Not sure what is happening with U stocks today but AGS and PDN are flying


----------



## Sean K (18 December 2006)

Yes. And just why didn't I buy PDN?   Looks to be costly.....

I hope this move on AGS turns out to what happened from Mid Nov!!


----------



## spooly74 (18 December 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Not sure what is happening with U stocks today but AGS and PDN are flying



Probably because of the recent spike in U price. . now $72

http://www.newswiretoday.com/news/11857/


----------



## mmmmining (18 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yes. And just why didn't I buy PDN?   Looks to be costly.....
> 
> I hope this move on AGS turns out to what happened from Mid Nov!!



Nice move today. Everyone knows something is going to happen because of $72/lb uranium, It happens that AGS is the one of the best gainers. While on the downside, EME, GBE stand out.


----------



## tmallie (20 December 2006)

Does anyone think the JORC will  be out this month or will it be next month sometime?


----------



## Fab (20 December 2006)

tmallie said:
			
		

> Does anyone think the JORC will  be out this month or will it be next month sometime?



Everyone who is following AGS is wondering about that as this will put a rocket under AGS SP or make it deep


----------



## Sean K (20 December 2006)

tmallie said:
			
		

> Does anyone think the JORC will  be out this month or will it be next month sometime?



The company is quoted as saying that it will be out in Dec Qtr 06.


----------



## laurie (20 December 2006)

yep released knowing my luck at close of business on Friday   it's not so much the actual JORC but what the western zone is hosting and AGS has to word the news such that investors[not me] know it's not the FINAL JORC   

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (20 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> yep released knowing my luck at close of business on Friday   it's not so much the actual JORC but what the western zone is hosting and AGS has to word the news such that investors[not me] know it's not the FINAL JORC
> 
> cheers laurie



Yep, Laurie, agree. The wording will need to be such that this JORC is just 10% (or whatever) of the entire project, which is still open in all directions including up!! This is supposed to be the high grade portion though, so it will want to be good.


----------



## laurie (21 December 2006)

Four Mile Prospect Exploration Update

news out now

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (21 December 2006)

Looks like this annnoucement is a bit of no news


----------



## noobs (21 December 2006)

Market hates set backs! Could be a good chance to get back into this when the dust settles


----------



## noobs (21 December 2006)

This is the sort of announcement that could have waited till after close on Friday - Thoughts anyone?


----------



## laurie (21 December 2006)

As I predicted a reaction to a report noobs said that did not have to be reported today as a matter of fact why at all still it's holding up well after the initial shock    

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2006)

noobs said:
			
		

> This is the sort of announcement that could have waited till after close on Friday - Thoughts anyone?



No, I think this is market sensitive and needed to be issued pronto. Poor form on the company in not sticking to their advised dates and they lose some cred in my mind. And, 'early in the new year' gives me no confidence either. Perhaps it's harder to get stuff out of ANSTO than we know....Recovered well from the oversell. Would have been a buying opp perhaps.


----------



## Rafa (21 December 2006)

Yes, should have bought when it fell...
its holding up remarkably well....

Amazing.... URANIUM!!!
I am beginning to wonder whether these announcements actually matter...
this market is nuts!


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2006)

Rafa said:
			
		

> Yes, should have bought when it fell...
> its holding up remarkably well....
> 
> Amazing.... URANIUM!!!
> ...



While I'm disappointed they haven't come through as expected, one thing that is impressive that they are not going to do anything half baked. There's quite a few juniors out there announcing anything positive and ramping things up, while these guys are making sure everything is disclosed so there is no surprises, and they are running on the facts.


----------



## noobs (21 December 2006)

Agreed Kennas, These guys are doing everything by the book and I amazed that the share price has stabilized so much again! Setbacks I hate but management you can trust goes a long way also.


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2006)

noobs said:
			
		

> Agreed Kennas, These guys are doing everything by the book and I amazed that the share price has stabilized so much again! Setbacks I hate but management you can trust goes a long way also.



I'd say the Quasar/Heathgate dudes are keeping things pretty tight. Pretty handy having a JV partner who is operating a current mine 8km away!


----------



## Rafa (21 December 2006)

yeah i guess your right...
better wait for the proper results than release something half baked...


----------



## mhtrieu (21 December 2006)

geez these AGS shares are ridiculous, many times have i seen these shares drop more then 5% and yet manage to pick itself back up by the end of the day. 

I was kind of worried this morning after reading the annoucement and seeing the opening price. Was planning to sell but decided to wait for the coming results. I've read many great things about AGS, just hope they live up to it.


----------



## laurie (21 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'd say the Quasar/Heathgate dudes are keeping things pretty tight. Pretty handy having a JV partner who is operating a current mine 8km away!




They are use to that being a private listed company if it wasn't for the jv none of this would have been known   

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (2 January 2007)

Yet another U player breaking up to all time highs. The Quasar JORC was due before Chrissie but delayed due to ANSTO being too busy probably. Shouldn't be too far away. MACD looking like it's turning.


----------



## laurie (3 January 2007)

Hanging out for big uranium numbers

Barry FitzGerald
January 3, 2007
AdvertisementAdvertisement

AUSTRALIA'S uranium inventory is set to be boosted by an initial resource estimate for the Four Mile discovery in the South Australian outback.

The area is held by Alliance Resources and the US group Heathgate, via its exploration arm Quasar Resources.

Four Mile is so named because that is its distance from Heathgate's Beverley uranium mine.

High-grade uranium hits at Four Mile, and betting by the market that it could eventually prove the biggest uranium deposit of its type in the world, put a rocket under Alliance's share price last year. Its shares rose from 17c at the start of the year to $1.83 by year's end. Yesterday they rose 8c to $1.91, valuing the company at $467 million.

Businessman Ian Gandel controls about 36 per cent of Alliance which, ahead of the 2005 discovery of Four Mile, was best known for its Maldon gold project in Victoria.

Alliance has a 25 per cent free-carried interest in Four Mile. Quasar is the project's operator and a 75 per cent partner in the find. Quasar's parent Heathgate (itself part of US group General Atomics) is the owner-operator of Beverley, which produced 854 tonnes of uranium in 2005-06.

Quasar has been working towards producing a compliant inferred resource estimate for the high-grade part of the Four Mile West zone. The estimate was expected to be released in December but it has been delayed to "early in the new year".

The delay was blamed on hold-ups in chemical analyses from the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation's laboratories in Lucas Heights, Sydney, and the need to verify the data, Alliance has told the market.

Alliance would not comment yesterday on what the initial resource estimate might be. But in the past it has referred to Four Mile as "Australia's premier uranium discovery".

While the initial resource estimate will be based on a small section of the Four Mile West area which has been drilled on 100 metre by 100 metre spacings, it is the expected high grade of the initial resource estimate that could again fire up market interest in the find.

And while Alliance has not made any estimate on the eventual size of Four Mile, there has been speculation - and that is all it is - that it could eventually weigh in at more than 40,000 tonnes of uranium. That would be equivalent to four years of current Australian production from the Olympic Dam, Ranger and Beverley mines.

Among Australia's undeveloped uranium deposits, only Kintyre (Rio Tinto) and Yeelirrie (BHP Billiton) in Western Australia would rank bigger. Both date from the 1970s uranium exploration boom/bust and are on hold because of the West Australian Labor Government's ban on uranium mining.


cheers laurie


----------



## zed327 (3 January 2007)

Terrific info there L  aurie


----------



## bigdog (3 January 2007)

AGS zooming first up today

AGS   $2.10    +$0.19  +9.95%  03-Jan 10:02:44 AM


Upwards and upwards
AGS  $2.20 +0.290  +15.18%  03-Jan 10:07:31 AM


----------



## laurie (3 January 2007)

Looks like everyone read the article

cheers laurie


----------



## johnmwu3 (3 January 2007)

AGS is laging the U  market rise before today, and now is only the beginning of its uptrend from chart.


----------



## spooly74 (3 January 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> Looks like everyone read the article
> 
> cheers laurie



Also got a mention on skynews online
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/story.asp?id=147512
cheers


----------



## Sean K (8 January 2007)

That gap up a few days ago has proved to be good support. I haven't been able to find any great detailed information on gap ups and their significance, or whether they then turn into support and resistance lines, and where they should then be. Anyone else have a better understanding on this? 

The only info I can relate to it is that the move was either a breakaway or continuation gap:

A *continuation gap * forms in the middle of a move and in the same direction as the current move. These gaps signal a continuation of the preceding trend and can mark good entry points. After a short or intermediate advance, a continuation up gap is usually considered bullish and signals a renewal of the uptrend. 

A *Breakaway gaps* signal a potential change in trend and are especially significant when accompanied by an increase in volume. A bullish breakaway gap forms when a security gaps up after an extended decline. *Bullish breakaway gaps can also occur after an extended base or consolidation period. *


----------



## tmallie (9 January 2007)

Down almost 8% today............are people taking profits??

T


----------



## johnmwu3 (9 January 2007)

To fill the gap?


----------



## laurie (9 January 2007)

yep

cheers laurie


----------



## tmallie (23 January 2007)

Anyone else still waiting for the JORC report???

T


----------



## Sean K (23 January 2007)

tmallie said:
			
		

> Anyone else still waiting for the JORC report???
> 
> T



I recently sold half. Free carried now, so happy to wait.


----------



## laurie (23 January 2007)

Bottom of the drawer   

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (23 January 2007)

Yep I am not selling this one either


----------



## Halba (23 January 2007)

never selling. why bother taking a profit. this resource is so solid and not speculative at all when u consider the junk thats floating around


----------



## laurie (23 January 2007)

What would we be saying to each other this time next year   

cheers laurie


----------



## wallave (23 January 2007)

You'd be saying....I wish I bought more.


----------



## 56gsa (23 January 2007)

i jumped from this when it was $1.85 thinking its EV was too high (then about $23/U lb i think)... now its about $30.... which raises a question

currently U is US$72/lb ... if this goes to the average for the next 3 years of US$90/lb as many are estimating does that mean EVs should increase by an equivalent amount?? (assuming costs don't change)

taking AGS, and assuming it is priced based on current US$72/lb level (this is a big assumption), an US$18/lb increase in U price (A$23), would equate to an EV of say A$50 => AGS SP of $3.50....  mmm I like that!  might have to jump back in!

problem with this analysis is of course how much of the expected increase in U price has already been factored in...

food for thought


----------



## mmmmining (23 January 2007)

56gsa said:
			
		

> i jumped from this when it was $1.85 thinking its EV was too high (then about $23/U lb i think)... now its about $30.... which raises a question
> food for thought



No JORC resources for AGS. But the EV/lb is not the only valuation method. Maybe people are hope AGS can find a lot uranium through the 25% assets in SA.


----------



## zed327 (23 January 2007)

Definately not selling this one.Will be the first new mine to kick of and the upside is huge if the MD is correct about the 4 mile deposit being world class.One look at the chart will a nice little consolidation that is getting closer to breaking out.


----------



## laurie (24 January 2007)

Cigar Lake will hold the future for AGS and for ERA/BHP/PDN if news is bad on mine startup if ever  

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> Cigar Lake will hold the future for AGS and for ERA/BHP/PDN if news is bad on mine startup if ever
> 
> cheers laurie



Hi Laurie, I just can't help observing that everyone is assuming Cigar Lake is going to be bad news for Cogema. What if it's good? What effect will that have on these stocks.

Personally, I have absolutely no real idea on which way it will go, other than what people here on ASF are saying, and everyone is just assuming it's going to be out for the year they said, or worse.... 

I doubt it will effect BHP anyway, while the POU has ran BHP has gone down, seems to be an inverse correlation there.

If people are right however, and the Cigar Lake situation is worse than expected, then sure, U stocks will have a boost. If.


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Hi Laurie, I just can't help observing that everyone is assuming Cigar Lake is going to be bad news for Cogema. What if it's good? What effect will that have on these stocks.
> 
> Personally, I have absolutely no real idea on which way it will go, other than what people here on ASF are saying, and everyone is just assuming it's going to be out for the year they said, or worse....
> 
> ...



And maybe it's going to be bad...and good for Aussie U.

*Cameco Tries to Respond To Speculation, Share Price Fall*
FN Arena News - January 23 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

World number one uranium producer Cameco saw its shares tumble more than 5% on the Toronto Stock Exchange as investors, and investor chat rooms in particular, were frenetically debating the severity of the problems at the company's Cigar Lake project.

As debates heated up, Cameco spokesperson Lyle Krahn sought to allay fears of Cameco having to abandon the project by talking to Bloomberg who quoted him as "speculation that the mine's development would be delayed indefinitely is "absolutely untrue"."

Cameco's intention is to update the market on Cigar Lake by the end of January while Krahn has flagged another media release between now and February 6-7 when the company is scheduled to inform investors about its December quarter performance as well as its operations.

Cameco has thus far stuck to its official line that production at Cigar Lake, expected to produce circa 10% of future annual market supply, is likely to be deferred by one year. Several experts and market watchers believe this is too optimistic though. Deutsche Bank analysts calculated recently that the market has already priced in a delay of two years in the U3O8 (uranium oxide) spot market.

Spot uranium has remained at US$72/lb so far in 2007. This is double the US$35/lb at the start of 2006.


----------



## noobs (24 January 2007)

I think we are forgetting the fact that the U spot price was rising rapidly well before the Cameco incident. Sure this gave it another big kick put even if its back on line shortly I predict U prices to continue north even if there is a small correction after the announcement. My 2 bobs!


----------



## laurie (24 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> If.




I was careful in choosing my words you have to consider both scenarios on what will happen regarding news but as noobs said the price was on an uptrend EVEN though the USA released U308 onto the market   

cheers laurie


----------



## mmmmining (24 January 2007)

I guess US government is very smart, buying uranium from Russia at $10sh/lb since 2000?, and may sell it at $70sh, $80sh in August. Former communist Russia do learn a lesson from the true blue capitalist. 

China is not far behind, holding a bunch of renewable IOU, and trapped.


----------



## spooly74 (24 January 2007)

The US have been buying U from Russia since 1993 in a "Megaton to Megawatts" program. 
The Russians have to supply 500 metric tons of HEU which equals 15000tons of LEU (reactor quality) over 20 years at a cost of $12 Billion.
This equals about 20000 warheads dismantled   

http://www.usec.com/v2001_02/html/megatons_howitworks.asp


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> I was careful in choosing my words you have to consider both scenarios on what will happen regarding news but as noobs said the price was on an uptrend EVEN though the USA released U308 onto the market
> 
> cheers laurie



Sorry Laurie, didn't want that to sound like I was correcting you in any way, you're one of the most objective posters out there, if not the most! It's been hard to be objective on AGS after watching it run as we have!   Can't believe I kept selling half, half, half, instead of buying double, double, double! I'd be flying to Mexico tomorrow in my own jet!


----------



## mmmmining (24 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'd be flying to Mexico tomorrow in my own jet!



Having a nice trip to Mexico. You should try some liquor with kind of worm in the bottle there (I forget the liquor's name). Some people said it will keep things up. We will keep eyes on your uranium stocks.


----------



## laurie (24 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Sorry Laurie, didn't want that to sound like I was correcting you in any way,




lol never took it that way kennas   

cheers laurie


----------



## zed327 (24 January 2007)

A quick look at the chart suggests that a upward break-out is on the cards tommorrow. Buyers came in fairly strong at the finish. Looking forward to tommorrow mornings open to see if the volumes keep building.


----------



## Fab (25 January 2007)

zed327 said:
			
		

> A quick look at the chart suggests that a upward break-out is on the cards tommorrow. Buyers came in fairly strong at the finish. Looking forward to tommorrow mornings open to see if the volumes keep building.



This one is amazing I already double my money in I think around 2 months since I bought @$ 1.16


----------



## tmallie (25 January 2007)

This stock has been quiet until the last two days...........or coincidently when I asked about the JORC report......  

Must of heard me asking the question......????


----------



## albi000 (25 January 2007)

zed327 said:
			
		

> A quick look at the chart suggests that a upward break-out is on the cards tommorrow. Buyers came in fairly strong at the finish. Looking forward to tommorrow mornings open to see if the volumes keep building.




Hope it was as good for you as it was for me    New 52 week high reached today, hopefully next week can be as successful.


----------



## bigdog (30 January 2007)

AGS ASX ANN today
30-01-2007 09:32 AM  AGS  Second Quarter Activities & Cashflow Report  
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00688229


HIGHLIGHTS
Arkaroola Joint Venture (Uranium-Copper-Gold)
 The mineral resource estimates for the higher-grade part of Four Mile West Uranium Prospect are in progress and are now scheduled for completion early in 2007.
 Further high-grade uranium-equivalent responses from Four Mile include:
8.5 metres grading 0.679% pU3O8
1.5 metres grading 2.58% pU3O8
8.5 metres grading 0.420% pU3O8

Note: pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade estimated from PFN logging. 

Maldon Project (Gold)
 Maldon underground decline development advanced 245 metres during the quarter.
 Construction of a water management dam commenced.

Warrina Project (Copper-Gold)
 Alliance receives PACE funding to drill the Big NW target.
 Drilling of pre-collar commenced at Big NW target.

East Frome Project (Base Metals)
 Alliance has applied for a mineral exploration licence near Broken Hill, New South Wales.

Corporate
 Post 30th September 2006, the Company announced the allotment and issue of 11,559,677 ordinary fully paid shares pursuant to its 1:18 non-renounceable entitlement issue prospectus dated 19 September 2006. The issue raised $7.74 million before costs.

 Post 30th September 2006, Alliance has agreed to divest its 39.76% shareholding in unlisted Encore Metals NL (Encore) to Intec Ltd (ASX Code: INL) for a consideration is 7,952,200 Intec shares (valued at $954,264) and the right to purchase a further 7,952,200 shares at a price of 18 cents per share upon the earlier of 23 October 2008 or a decision by Intec to commence commercial treatment of the Zeehan Slags.

 Cash balance at 31 December 2006 is $10.5 million.


----------



## noobs (30 January 2007)

Quartely Report just out with more drilling results. Interesting to see market reaction this morning as it looks like Four Mile East & South are going to be almost as good as the North. Still waiting on the JORC but hey I think this one is almost in the bag - Just a matter of time.


----------



## Bullion (1 February 2007)

Taking a hiding so far today, anyone have any idea why?


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2007)

Bullion said:
			
		

> Taking a hiding so far today, anyone have any idea why?



Buy the rumour and sell the fact IMO. I saw a research note from Lonsec saying the upside wasn't actually in Beverley 4 Mile results (although again, very good) but in the tennaments around the area with the potential to hold a significant IOCGU deposit similar to OD. This was described as a potential 'company maker' in themselves.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (1 February 2007)

Oiiiii Kenna aren't you supposed to be on holiday!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Get off the computer and on that mexican tequila!


----------



## Sean K (1 February 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Oiiiii Kenna aren't you supposed to be on holiday!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Get off the computer and on that mexican tequila!



Yo!!!!!!!!!

Yes, already topped a few of those. 

Spent the day in some traditional village looking at poor people sacrificing chickens. I wish Chicken was there!   

On the red tonight. Surprisingly good. 

All the best!!!


----------



## bigdog (1 February 2007)

Speeding ticket for driving too slow

ASX ann AGS 1:47 PM  Response to ASX Share Price Query 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689916


----------



## mmmmining (1 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> Speeding ticket for driving too slow
> 
> ASX ann AGS 1:47 PM  Response to ASX Share Price Query
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689916



More like for driving on the wrong direction. No need to be panic. But valuation issue may surface again.


----------



## Fab (4 February 2007)

Actually if you look @ ags graph it is due to bouce back as it is outside the bollinger band so it is either in a downtrend if it continues or it will go back within the bands


----------



## Go Nuke (4 February 2007)

OMG...what is happening to my ags shares!  
Im new to the share game but I can only hope (and assume) that if all is good, that they will turn the other way when the JORC report is released.

Can someone tell me what the implications are of AGS being a "25% free carried interest" means.

I mean how will this affect shares?
Im sure this stock will still be a goer  

:microwave


----------



## bigt (4 February 2007)

IMO unless the JORC is outstanding, the SP will fall a little more...consolidate...and continue on its merry way up, on its way to production.  I dont think you will be disappointed in 12 months from now, these retraces are part of the game in this type of stock. I'm even thinking of buying in...have been procrastinating since 75c


----------



## bigdog (5 February 2007)

AGS is down more than a little today following Friday SP drop

AGS   $1.76    -$0.15  -7.85% 1,049,763 share $1,905,429  05-Feb 11:19:29


----------



## Fab (5 February 2007)

Surprising indeed


----------



## Go Nuke (5 February 2007)

LOL...Id be banging my head against a wall too if i had been watching since shares were 75c

Im sure it is a part of the game...and Im very new to this game and liable to get burnt along the way...But im following some of the rules and diversafiying between resources and bio stocks.

Im sure AGS will pick up....but I really hope it doesn't continue its slide.
Im at a loss as to WHY its on the downward trend. I know very little, but the finacial report didnt look that bad to me.
Perhaps there are better out there. Im in for the longer haul anyway

Hopefully between AGS and SMM I will come out on top 

 :microwave 

Im just a boliermaker servicing the alumina industry...so any wisdom on shares is muchly appriciated. (Even if it is JUST YOUR OPINION)


----------



## Halba (5 February 2007)

needs some drill results

more 2% hits. thats the blue sky ability of this stock. the ability to put out some WOW drill results

do not underestimate the power/potential of AGS. potential can not be reflected in a jorc report.


----------



## insider (6 February 2007)

The cats outside my house have more heat than AGS at the moment. Alot of uranium companies are losing their heat except for a few... It's a bit of a test and it shows how many short term investors there are as they obviously jump off onto something else... This is further proof that the Australian Uranium market is run off announcements and anticipation... No announcement, no vertical price movement...

GOOD LUCK HOLDERS


----------



## Fab (6 February 2007)

insider said:
			
		

> The cats outside my house have more heat than AGS at the moment. Alot of uranium companies are losing their heat except for a few... It's a bit of a test and it shows how many short term investors there are as they obviously jump off onto something else... This is further proof that the Australian Uranium market is run off announcements and anticipation... No announcement, no vertical price movement...
> 
> GOOD LUCK HOLDERS



Yep you might be right in the short term but i am invested in AGS for the long term and this one as the potential to go the same way as PDN. The U story is not a short term one anyway.


----------



## Broadside (6 February 2007)

insider said:
			
		

> The cats outside my house have more heat than AGS at the moment. Alot of uranium companies are losing their heat except for a few... It's a bit of a test and it shows how many short term investors there are as they obviously jump off onto something else... This is further proof that the Australian Uranium market is run off announcements and anticipation... No announcement, no vertical price movement...
> 
> GOOD LUCK HOLDERS




AGS is still one of the very best placed Australian U stocks to move to production in a reasonable time frame (say 2 years), outstanding grades and massive resource potential...for me nothing has changed, still a standout stock....the JORC might disappoint some in terms of tonnage but only represents a fraction of the lease, there is plenty more potential beyond JORC to increase the size.  Very comfortable holding at these levels.

I wouldn't put it in the same class as most of the other U wannabies in Australia, it is quality and will actually produce one day.


----------



## Go Nuke (6 February 2007)

Well I read today in the Australian paper that the price of Uranium is about to increase and they recon that by next week prices will be up.

"There will be a renewed buzz around uraminum hopefuls next week after an upward move in uranium spot price after a 6 week stalemate"
"Record prices in Dec led analysts to suggest $US100/lb was not too far away. The latest move has reignited expectations of further price increases this month." (The Australian Monday Feb 5th 2007)
The rest of the article is about Rio Tinto and its ERA business.

I dont know if that will reflect on AGS shares...but Im hoping so

I do kinda wish that i had put more money into SMM...and Paladin would have been great...but that company is a bit outside my beginners budget

 :microwave


----------



## laurie (6 February 2007)

Nice to have hindsight Go Nuke  : 

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (7 February 2007)

This looks to be heading back into buy territory for me. Hopefully it settles around these prices for a few days or so, or at least until I get back. On the chart, around $1.90 was a pretty important support line which failed dramatically...  ...hopefully there is some at $1.65, next stop $1.35 ish IMO. Oversold on stochastics and a trading opp indicated by the break through BB...Sorry I can ´t put a chart up. Will be very happy if I can buy more when I get back at the $1.35 level. Still quite a bit unknown however in regard to B4M...so as most of these are, a risky stock..


----------



## drmb (7 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> This looks to be heading back into buy territory for me. Hopefully it settles around these prices for a few days or so, or at least until I get back. On the chart, around $1.90 was a pretty important support line which failed dramatically...  ...hopefully there is some at $1.65, next stop $1.35 ish IMO. Oversold on stochastics and a trading opp indicated by the break through BB...Sorry I can ´t put a chart up. Will be very happy if I can buy more when I get back at the $1.35 level. Still quite a bit unknown however in regard to B4M...so as most of these are, a risky stock..



Hit my stop this morning, not sure why it's falling. Was a nice stock with potential but as you say - risky. Will see if it gos to 1.35 next resistance and pick up again if it drops down.


----------



## Fab (7 February 2007)

Oops not looking too good @ the moment. I don’t understand why so?


----------



## Fab (7 February 2007)

This one is making me nervous now


----------



## mmmmining (7 February 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> This one is making me nervous now




Fab, Is your research support your view for AGS?  Have you checked it without any bias?

I did it a couple of days ago for PNN, seeing it falling from $2.2 to $1.38. I review everything, and collect as much information as possible, including from this forum, I made the correct predication (see in the PNN thread) , and added a position at almost right time.

The key is without BIAS, find the best case, and worst case. Them you will feel much better either hold it, buy more, or sell it.


----------



## Halba (7 February 2007)

pnn's deposits are really low tonnage

that is also speculative

how can  u compare PNN 40% of their deposit to AGS 25% of a world class deposit?


----------



## mmmmining (7 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> pnn's deposits are really low tonnage
> 
> that is also speculative
> 
> how can  u compare PNN 40% of their deposit to AGS 25% of a world class deposit?



Halba,

I have to admit you did not get it. I am not here to promote PNN. I am here to promote a method to handle nervous and stress. 

Your view and my view cannot move the market. Whether I said PNN worth $4 or your said PNN worth 20c have little to do with AGS share price. 

But you have to find a way to deal with the reality, sometimes, you are in a very bad situation. When you are not in good mode, you can easily made poor decision.

I try to think wining or losing is not everything. Gradually, I have less and less feeling about daily up and down of the share price. I admit it is still a long way for me to go to have a peace of mind.


----------



## laurie (7 February 2007)

You know it only takes 1 horse in a herd of hundreds to go to drink water and the rest will follow   

cheers laurie


----------



## Go Nuke (7 February 2007)

Oh indeed hindsight would be a wonderful thing:>

Shame you were'nt able to put a chat up Kennas. Im keen to learn more.

I see the higs and lows your talking about though. God I hope it doesn't hit the $1.35 mark
Well the way i figure it...got too much to lose by selling now...so will hang in for the long hall.
All the talk of AGS is good and they seem to be relativly cashed up...so I think all will be good :kiffer: 

I still have no idea why the price is falling so badly though


----------



## Go Nuke (7 February 2007)

GREAT. finished with a low of $1.515


----------



## Fab (7 February 2007)

Go Nuke said:
			
		

> Oh indeed hindsight would be a wonderful thing:>
> 
> Shame you were'nt able to put a chat up Kennas. Im keen to learn more.
> 
> ...



Strange fall. I am looking @ AGS vs PDN today and I can understand why AGS is going south while PDN is heading north none stop. I hold both


----------



## Go Nuke (7 February 2007)

And why is it do you think that 1 is going North while the other South?

PDN is too expensive for my poor budget...so I settled for a few in SMM.

I know its just an opinion......but do u think SMM orPDN might take a bit of a fall soon? Alot of other companies seem to have. 
I was thinking of increasing my shares in SMM...but now Im a little put off after having done the same with AGS at $2.18 :22_yikes: 


 :microwave


----------



## Fab (7 February 2007)

Go Nuke said:
			
		

> And why is it do you think that 1 is going North while the other South?
> 
> PDN is too expensive for my poor budget...so I settled for a few in SMM.
> 
> ...



They are all quite speculative stocks so that can happen to any of them. PDN is producing already so I would stick with PDN even though they are expensive.
I bought PDN @ $2.45 and still holding   Bought SMM @ 0.9 and sold @ $2 (too early) and bought AGS @ $1.16 and still holding (praying for it not to fall further).


----------



## barney (7 February 2007)

Hi lads,   The reason for the  dive in AGS could be many things, but the old "fear and greed" could be the obvious answer ... only time will tell ............ I'll tell my story for the "newer" punters, so hopefully it might save someone a few bucks here and there ...........

I bought a reasonable amount at a relatively high ticker, not wanting to miss the next ann. (greed) ............ I got stopped out of the lot a few days ago (fear/ although fear tempered with common sense) .......... I immediately bought back in cause I like the stock, and did not want to see it head north without me (greed) .......... I got stopped out of the lot again two days ago (actually I closed my position cause it was heading for my stop, and I didn't like the price action)  (fear)  ............................. so what do I do now ?? ................. I hopefully learn from my mistakes ..........they were:-

* Dont buy when the price is high unless it is obviously still rising, which it wasn't

* Don't buy larger parcells than your bank account can handle in the case of a downturn (which I had done)

* Don't fall in love with a stock no matter what (I should not have bought back in after the first stop losses were hit, until confirmation of a change in the trend)

There are probably more mistakes, but these will do for the point of the exercise ................. and the point is:-  I take full responsibilty for my actions, and wear the loss on the chin, because it was MY fault!!  ... No remorse, no complaining, no feeling sorry for my "bad luck" ............. 

Its all about learning, so hopefully I have learned something,.........  and if that little spiel above helps someone else "not" lose their money, then all is good ........... All the best, Barney.

PS. I bought another (very small parcel yesterday, which is now in the red, so maybe I haven't learned enough yet     ............ If I had done that in the first place, I would not be licking my wounds atm ............. position size and money management .......... amen)


----------



## ezyTrader (9 February 2007)

Jumped 10 cents at open -   
Overexuberance? Greed?


----------



## ezyTrader (9 February 2007)

Good to see it cover the gap at yesterday's close now.  Hopefully, on and forward!


----------



## bigdog (9 February 2007)

ASX ann today

AGS 10:18 AM   Four Mile Uranium Discovery Update 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00691860


----------



## Sean K (9 February 2007)

Perhaps that $1.65 ish support line was valid. And perhaps no chance of buying more at the $1.35 level.   Too early to call perhaps...


----------



## sydney1963 (19 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Perhaps that $1.65 ish support line was valid. And perhaps no chance of buying more at the $1.35 level.   Too early to call perhaps...



Anyone can understand what is going on with *AGS* sp.


----------



## Halba (19 February 2007)

seems a bit volatile.


----------



## laurie (19 February 2007)

sydney1963 said:
			
		

> Anyone can understand what is going on with *AGS* sp.



yep easy......... impatient investors that will make patient investors rich   

cheers laurie


----------



## barney (19 February 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> yep easy......... impatient investors that will make patient investors rich
> 
> cheers laurie




I agree Laurie,   I just posted on the JMS thread ...... I should have cut and pasted your post to there, cause its pretty much the same scenario imo. Cheers.


----------



## sydney1963 (20 February 2007)

laurie said:
			
		

> yep easy......... impatient investors that will make patient investors rich
> 
> cheers laurie



I think *AGS* sp start to move towards $2.00, but still long away to pick up with MTN.


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2007)

Was good that it bounced off $1.65, but I'd be on the lookout for a possible H&S pattern forming up here. 

If it fails around $1.90 ish (resistance at $2.00 ish so a possibility) and heads back down, a break through $1.65 could send it to $1.00 ish. (the distance from the neck line to the top of the head is about 60 cents. $1.65 less 60 = $1.00 ish - and also a support line) However, that support line around $1.35 might steady it. 

MACD looks like a positive turn up in the short term however. I probably won't re enter until it breaks through $2.00....


----------



## Rafa (20 February 2007)

welcome back kennas, your charts have been missed...

i know you sold a fair bit of your u holdings before you went, are you re stocking on them now, or is it wait and see...?


----------



## Sean K (20 February 2007)

Rafa said:
			
		

> welcome back kennas, your charts have been missed...
> 
> i know you sold a fair bit of your u holdings before you went, are you re stocking on them now, or is it wait and see...?



Hi Rafa,

I have half my AGS still. Well, half of the half of the half of the half I bought about 18 months ago. If I had have kept doubling instead of halving, I'd be on a yacht in the Caribbean somewhere.....

I think if AGS has a clear break again through $2.00 I might look at it just as a technical buy. Hard to pick these things on 'value' at the moment. Too many damn variables....

I'll be trying to find things that haven't run so hard over the next few days. Hard to find.....


----------



## Out Too Soon (20 February 2007)

Hi Kennas, welcome back. Did you bring us some Tequila?  
 Your predictions on AGS look possibly pretty scary! I don't hold atm but I want to. If it does form a big head & shoulders I'll get my chance.


----------



## Fab (20 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Was good that it bounced off $1.65, but I'd be on the lookout for a possible H&S pattern forming up here.
> 
> If it fails around $1.90 ish (resistance at $2.00 ish so a possibility) and heads back down, a break through $1.65 could send it to $1.00 ish. (the distance from the neck line to the top of the head is about 60 cents. $1.65 less 60 = $1.00 ish - and also a support line) However, that support line around $1.35 might steady it.
> 
> MACD looks like a positive turn up in the short term however. I probably won't re enter until it breaks through $2.00....



Looks to me that it has been grossly over sold if you look @ the RSI.


----------



## sydney1963 (23 February 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> Looks to me that it has been grossly over sold if you look @ the RSI.




What is *RSI*   mean????


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2007)

sydney1963 said:
			
		

> What is *RSI*   mean????



Try this Syd:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_in

Sean


----------



## sydney1963 (23 February 2007)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Halba,
> 
> I have to admit you did not get it. I am not here to promote PNN. I am here to promote a method to handle nervous and stress.
> 
> ...



The only way that AGS get out of this problem is by another ann. with the estimate resources under ground.
Before that sp will be any value from 1.5 to 1.8,up &down.  
Let us hope that that  ann. will be soon,no more than the 2nd week of March.


----------



## Fab (27 February 2007)

AGS moving up strongly today. Any idea why? Insider trading?


----------



## noobs (27 February 2007)

The majority of the U stocks appear to be doing pretty well today. Can't wait for their JORC to be released


----------



## Halba (27 February 2007)

The takeover effect.


----------



## Sean K (27 February 2007)

Fab said:
			
		

> AGS moving up strongly today. Any idea why? Insider trading?



SMM/PDN related I guess.

Developing quite a bit of resistance between $1.85 and $2.00. Indicators saying it might be turning back up. Will be very positive getting to around the green circle.


----------



## Fab (27 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> SMM/PDN related I guess.
> 
> Developing quite a bit of resistance between $1.85 and $2.00. Indicators saying it might be turning back up. Will be very positive getting to around the green circle.



I am wondering if this one could be our next PDN or even SMM (as a takeover target)


----------



## Halba (27 February 2007)

premium is already built into ags stock. ags stock is a bit of a bore but i continue to hold


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Was good that it bounced off $1.65, but I'd be on the lookout for a possible H&S pattern forming up here.
> 
> If it fails around $1.90 ish (resistance at $2.00 ish so a possibility) and heads back down, a break through $1.65 could send it to $1.00 ish. (the distance from the neck line to the top of the head is about 60 cents. $1.65 less 60 = $1.00 ish - and also a support line) However, that support line around $1.35 might steady it.
> 
> MACD looks like a positive turn up in the short term however. I probably won't re enter until it breaks through $2.00....



H&S formed. Not a good sign IMO. JORC due, so maybe that news will prevent it falling over. Needs to get it out soon...


----------



## ezyTrader (6 March 2007)

So kennas, that's an ominous sign, esp on today's low-ish volume. 
Where do you think if the pattern may be invalidated, if market received the long due announcement well? 1.90?

Plus, too, the fact that it is now listed in ASX300. Not sure what the timeframe is for the actual inclusion, but should be sometime this month, I believe.


----------



## ezyTrader (6 March 2007)

Oops, just read your previous posts. 
So, a clear 2.00 would definiitely bring it out of the woods.


----------



## Sean K (6 March 2007)

ezyTrader said:
			
		

> Oops, just read your previous posts.
> So, a clear 2.00 would definiitely bring it out of the woods.



Yep, I still think so. It's finished above 160 today, so might escape, but looks ominous. Long, long term holders should relax though IMO.

Having said that, the Quasar JORC is going to have to be damn good! There are a lot of expectations on it and AGS is only earning 25%.

Upside for AGS is the surrounding area. An analysts I know at Lonsec reckons their tenaments around Beverly 4 Mile could house a substantial IOCG deposit and be a company maker in itself.

I'm out now. Waiting for more clarrity from the markets. I hate volatility. I have a bad heart!   And it makes me drink too much.


----------



## Broadside (7 March 2007)

the JORC itself will only cover a fraction of what they have, so the headline number may disappoint some who aren't well researched in this stock, I agree kennas it is the surrounding area that holds the (huge) upside for AGS down the track.  The initial JORC will only scratch the surface.  There is a massive drilling program funded by Heathgate this year, something like $14m for B4M. That should result in a string of good announcements post-JORC.

They have other strings to their bow M1 and M2 and Maldon gold but I doubt much value is being attributed to these yet, nor should be (yet).

I am a long long term holder I hope the H&S doesn't play out, but if it does I will add if I have the cash at the time.  I think the Aussie U spec scene is overheated, if and when the bubble bursts I am sure all U stocks will get hit hard but the quality ones will rebound, I put AGS in that class.


----------



## tmallie (12 March 2007)

Up 8% today!

Hope this is a change in direction with the JORC hopefully around the corner!

T


----------



## Kauri (12 March 2007)

tmallie said:
			
		

> Up 8% today!
> 
> Hope this is a change in direction with the JORC hopefully around the corner!
> 
> T



  I've been following this one from an E/W perspective, looks ripe for a turnaround, also trying to see if I can get an entry indication with vol/spread.


----------



## Sean K (13 March 2007)

Probably isn't out of the threat of the dreaded H&S until it breaks $1.90 ish. Does seem to be an A B C in there though.....


----------



## Fab (15 March 2007)

What to make of this mornings annoucement? Positive or negative?


----------



## Halba (15 March 2007)

Extremely positive the 200 hole drill program.


----------



## Halba (15 March 2007)

I clarify my comment:

200 hole drill program over 3.5km² area.

Thats about 2.5km by 1.5km area.

2500m*1500m*3*4m(average thickness) = roughly 45mT of mineralisation.

They've indicated in presentations a small proportion of that is high grade, about 5mT i'd say @ 0.3%

So 40,000,000 @ 0.03 = 12000t in the non high grade areas.

5mT @ 0.3% = 15,000t in the high grade zone. Total about 27,000t to 30,000t in that area(EAST zone). Possible upside with infill drilling as 200 holes is expansive.

AGS get a quarter share.


----------



## Go Nuke (15 March 2007)

iT TOLD ME A FAT LOT OF NOTHING REALLY.
But if it means something to some and it picks up the SP..i dont care.
Im still holding onto what i bought at $2.13


----------



## laurie (15 March 2007)

Go Nuke said:
			
		

> iT TOLD ME A FAT LOT OF NOTHING REALLY.
> But if it means something to some and it picks up the SP..i dont care.
> Im still holding onto what i bought at $2.13




I think it told a lot really......that's it's worth spending $14m on drilling want to name me anyone in Uranium that's spending that much on drilling    I'm still holding when I got on @.14c

cheers laurie


----------



## vert (22 March 2007)

running up nicely today, breaking out of pennant


----------



## Go Nuke (22 March 2007)

Yep $1.83 now. Hope it can sustain this good day and push up through the $1.90 resistance tomorrow.


----------



## laurie (22 March 2007)

Go Nuke

Would like to think so but ......Friday....retrace hope I'm wrong   

cheers laurie


----------



## Go Nuke (22 March 2007)

Yer true mate. I think you will be right
Profit taking right?

Ah well...we shall see. Nothing wrong with a bit of optimisim


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2007)

Potentially going to break this resistance at $1.85 ish shortly. 

I sold after it broke down through the H&S but it seems to be recovering.....along with a few other U players admittedly. 

ANSTO are being a bit tardy on the JORC.


----------



## Halba (26 March 2007)

Hi I sold out too   

Regretting my decision!


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2007)

Halba said:


> Hi I sold out too
> 
> Regretting my decision!



LOL. I'm sure the money was put to good use elsewhere. BMN is doing OK.... 

I'm back in. I still think it's market cap aproaching 500m is a bit much though. The expectations are pretty high on this JORC I feel. Hope it comes in above expectations or it could be punished. 

I'm also long term hopeful (not a great term, but anyway) that the Arkaroola EPL could hold more significant IOCGU deposits. So, maybe this time I'll hold for longer term potential.


----------



## Halba (26 March 2007)

Agree but mkt cap too high for me to reenter. I am doing well on BMN right now thanks kennas =))


----------



## laurie (26 March 2007)

$1.950 	open $1.830 +0.140

Strong move this morning JORC must be getting closer hopping for a +40,000t resource in the western zone 40,000 x 2200 = 88m = @$100/lb $8.8B = $2.2Billion for AGS  

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2007)

laurie said:


> $1.950 	open $1.830 +0.140
> 
> Strong move this morning JORC must be getting closer hopping for a +40,000t resource in the western zone 40,000 x 2200 = 88m = @$100/lb $8.8B = $2.2Billion for AGS
> 
> cheers laurie



Laurie, where did you get the 40K from? Haven't seen that mentioned before.  

Looks to have broken though that resistance mentioned above, but days not over. A solid finish and I'd have more confidence. A few U players going ok today too, so might not be specific to the long awaited JORC.


----------



## Go Nuke (26 March 2007)

Definitely broken through the resistance line i drew in incredible charts at $1.89.
I think it will close the day well too.
I bought in at $2.13 ...but been holding since...so im being optimistic about my shares in AGS

Now, lets just see it set the $1.90 mark as a new base to move up from.

Maybe its doing a BMN and going sideways a bit before the jump.


----------



## Halba (26 March 2007)

Who said 40,000t? I am getting closer to 25-30,000t by my calcs, remember AGS only get 1/4.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2007)

I'm confused with all of the above. The JORC expected is only for the high grade area within Four Mile West. This is just a 1km square zone.

I don't think your calcs are for that Halba. Or, is that the 5m tn figure you are estimating..  

Additional drilling is required at west and east to estimate the total resource...


----------



## Halba (26 March 2007)

Agree. My 25,000t was just a rough calc. But its hard to estimate what and how to value this company, and also it will be some time before they produce. That is why I sold. 

Bit confusing this run as there is no clear indication or announcement.


----------



## nizar (26 March 2007)

Kennas nice boat you got there is it yours and how many feet?

Excuse the offtopic.


----------



## Sean K (26 March 2007)

nizar said:


> Kennas nice boat you got there is it yours and how many feet?
> 
> Excuse the off topic.



No, not mine. It's on the shopping list for a 2015 sail around the world trip. 48ft ketch rigged sloop this one. I'd be happy with 42 ft. I'll be after hands to swab the deck!


----------



## laurie (26 March 2007)

kennas said:


> Laurie, where did you get the 40K from? Haven't seen that mentioned before.
> 
> Looks to have broken though that resistance mentioned above, but days not over. A solid finish and I'd have more confidence. A few U players going ok today too, so might not be specific to the long awaited JORC.




Well because the cause of the whole problem was one the PFN tool was conservative with the results so the reading was actually higher and yes 25-30k may be correct I just done a quick calc in my head as a % increase to allow for the error which could be as high as 33% IMHO and there could be problems with the SG calculations which will also affect the results hence the delay 

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie (26 March 2007)

kennas said:


> No, not mine. It's on the shopping list for a 2015 sail around the world trip. 48ft ketch rigged sloop this one. I'd be happy with 42 ft. I'll be after hands to swab the deck!




I'll buy it kennas and you be my skipper 

cheers laurie


----------



## Fab (27 March 2007)

Trading above $ 2 today in a downtrend market. Not bad at all


----------



## Go Nuke (27 March 2007)

Over 2Mil in volume.
Perhaps there is an ann on the way?

Its been ages!
But finally getting back up to where i bought in last


----------



## zed327 (29 March 2007)

Anyone read Aegis Research?

Below is what they have outlined.

Quasar Resources might delay the release to include high-grade hits from 4-Mile East, where hole AK210 recorded 1.5m @ 2.58% Pu3O8.


Risks - AGS is primarily valued for its interest in the Beverley 4-Mile uranium deposit. Investors are waiting for JV partner Quasar to release a resource/reserve statement, over which there has been a good deal of speculation. It would seem that the JV partners have a project, but its scope is not yet known. After the resource statement is released a BFS will be completed. Then permitting, construction and the issue of an export license . . . but at least South Australia is pro-uranium mining. 

Primary Share Price Catalyst - The next value catalyst is the release of resources and reserves for Beverley 4-Mile. Quasar Resources might delay the release to include high-grade hits from 4-Mile East, where hole AK210 recorded 1.5m @ 2.58% Pu3O8. Drilling has started at Warrina, an IOCG target funded by the SA Government through its PACE program. PACE is funding drilling of the Big NW target, one of two geophysical anomalies. A surprise result from Warrina would add significant value to shareholders.


----------



## zed327 (29 March 2007)

See announcment by CUY

"The South Australian Mines Minister, Mr Paul Holloway, spoke at the [Paydirt] conference and re-iterated the South Australian Government’s support for uranium exploration and mining in South Australia. He is reported as saying that two more South Australian uranium mines were up for approval in the next 12 months – these were Curnamona Energy’s Oban project and Quasar-Alliance’s Beverley Four Mile project (Australian Financial Review, 23 March 2007)." 

Unlike many pretenders AGS is the real deal.
 Heathgate is doing an awful lot of good work behind the scenes, that many do not recognise.

The mine is coming and it is coming fast.


----------



## zed327 (29 March 2007)

At the pay dirt conference Steve Johnston was inferring through the use of a power point presentation that the resource was between that of era's ranger deposit of 43900 t and bhp's yeeralie in wa of 52000t . Many analysts from singapore and hong kong to name a few were very impressed with the company. 
Like everyone else they will wait until the 3 mines policy is turfed out then there is gunna be a whole lot of buying going on.


----------



## Halba (29 March 2007)

But AGS only hold 25%. How much will be jorc?


----------



## zed327 (29 March 2007)

This will be the second biggest u mine in Aus.

I'm very happy AGS have 25% of it.

This will go into production very quickly.


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

Halba said:


> But AGS only hold 25%. How much will be jorc?



You're right Halba, and free carry is only up to the decision to mine I believe. 25% will be a decent amount by what people are speculating but $500m cap...will need to be significant won't it.


----------



## Halba (29 March 2007)

500*4 = 2billion dollars

already fully valued on overall? 3yrs from mining?

smm mkt cap 900million

mtn mkt cap 250million. both operate their own deposits, these 2 may have more returns

in theory the lower the market value the higher the return(from a low base) and these 2 have similar pounds(mtn 80 mil pounds, smm >100m pounds ESTIMATED)


----------



## laurie (29 March 2007)

Why do people get hung up about the 25%!!
1.T/O possible by Heathgate
2.This JORC will be either the western zone or eastern zone or both
3.AGS has its Maldon Gold project flying along
4.As price of Uranium increases so does AGS share
5.Other projects that AGS has 100% ownership 

this is NOT a singe commodity company if it was I would have jumped long time ago  

cheers laurie


----------



## Go Nuke (29 March 2007)

laurie said:


> Why do people get hung up about the 25%!!
> 1.T/O possible by Heathgate
> 2.This JORC will be either the western zone or eastern zone or both
> 3.AGS has its Maldon Gold project flying along
> ...




True its not....but AGS was the very first share I bought in my life..and I bought it for the Uranium projects!
I did my research on Heathgate and I liked what i saw.

All of their other projects are added bonues.

Its great to see it close over $2 again today, its been awhile
I see a 120k+ bid to sell at $2.10.


----------



## laurie (29 March 2007)

Oh I forgot to mention its free carried status that has not diluted it holdings and Heathgate spending another $14million!!!!!! tell me how much that has saved AGS from day 1  

cheers laurie


----------



## Go Nuke (29 March 2007)

Gee...when u you at the map for where Heathgate is looking with AGS and PDN for Uranium..they really have the area covered dont they!


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> Gee...when u you at the map for where Heathgate is looking with AGS and PDN for Uranium..they really have the area covered dont they!



Marathon's there too aren't they. Mt Gee looks pretty close. AGS looks to have the most territory I think.


----------



## Halba (29 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> AGS looks to have the most territory I think.




MTN 100% owns its land.

AGS 25% owns its land.

I doubt AGS has the most territory then?


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

Halba said:


> MTN 100% owns its land.
> 
> AGS 25% owns its land.
> 
> I doubt AGS has the most territory then?



I need to check but I think it's just the B4M project that is 25% free carry to mine. The rest of the surrounding tennament is all AGS's. Might be wrong there. For eg, the two gold projects M1 and 2 are within the same tennament and are 100% AGS. Will get back to you.


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

kennas said:


> I need to check but I think it's just the B4M project that is 25% free carry to mine. The rest of the surrounding tennament is all AGS's. Might be wrong there. For eg, the two gold projects M1 and 2 are within the same tennament and are 100% AGS. Will get back to you.



My mistake, seems the Arkaroola Project includes M1 and 2. Thought they were seperate.


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

Halba said:


> MTN 100% owns its land.
> 
> AGS 25% owns its land.
> 
> I doubt AGS has the most territory then?



Halba, probably need to check the size of the tenaments to make a call on this. 25% of Arkaroola might be bigger that the Mt Gee area. Not sure, but that's a consideration....Would be interesing to know because I've come to understand the region is pretty hot and there's potential for further significant discoveries.


----------



## Halba (29 March 2007)

kennas - its a 75% farm in into AGS tenement.

AGS only retains 25% of whatever is on that land.


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

kennas said:


> Halba, probably need to check the size of the tenaments to make a call on this. 25% of Arkaroola might be bigger that the Mt Gee area. Not sure, but that's a consideration....Would be interesing to know because I've come to understand the region is pretty hot and there's potential for further significant discoveries.



I've checked the maps and it seems Arkaroola is considerably larger than Mt Gee. That doesn't mean much I suppose, as it all depends on what's inside the tennaments that counts. So, perhaps what we are discussing is pointless. 

Check the tennament area here:

http://www.allianceresources.com.au...n RIU Explorers Conference Fremantle Comp.pdf

if you can.


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

Halba said:


> kennas - its a 75% farm in into AGS tenement.
> 
> AGS only retains 25% of whatever is on that land.



I suppose my point, which has been lost, is that if Arkaroola is 10 times the size on Mt Gee, as a tennament, then the 25% AGS own is larger than MTNs tennament area. As I say above though, depends on what's in there, so talking about tennament size is a moot point really.


----------



## mmmmining (29 March 2007)

Mt Gee is the mother of all uraniums around the area, Beverley, B4M, Honeymoon. MTN's tenement is completed surrounded by AGS. 

To be honest with you, I had serious look at AGS when it is at 80s. But I decided to add more position with some other stocks. It is an break-even decision because AGS's performance  is in line with the whole uranium sector. I don't need to talk down AGS because I don't owned it. Just a couple of facts:

1 AGS's uranium deposit is very high quality, so it is commanding very high premium. 

2. The tenement has huge potential. Every bit of uranium washed away from Mt Gee has to pass its tenement.

3. Quasar Resources is the operator. So AGS has no say on the progress, except the farm-out agreement. The delay of JORC resource is a good example. When they are going to mine the site is controlled by Quasar, not AGS.

4. But there are a lot of rooms for imagination. Such as takeover, etc.


----------



## laurie (29 March 2007)

Or acquisitions..........who's to say it has not something lined up

cheers laurie


----------



## spooly74 (29 March 2007)

mmmmining said:


> MTN's tenement is completed surrounded by AGS.




Almost ..... MTN have an escape route to the south


----------



## Halba (29 March 2007)

That is one slick image!


----------



## Go Nuke (30 March 2007)

Yeah very nice map.
I actually started googling it...lol..then just scrolled down.

Well..they certainly have everything covered alright.

smart move really


----------



## zed327 (31 March 2007)

Had no idea how much promising land they hold until i saw that map.
I can just feel the piggy bank getting fatter soon.


----------



## Sean K (1 April 2007)

kennas said:


> Potentially going to break this resistance at $1.85 ish shortly.
> 
> I sold after it broke down through the H&S but it seems to be recovering.....along with a few other U players admittedly.



This is going ok on the chart.


----------



## ezyTrader (1 April 2007)

Hi kennas,
What does the TA say, of the possible upward move, if it resisted the H&S pattern ? (as it's looking to be back on track re:uptrend) Would it be the reverse of the H&S pattern? 270-280 do you think, from the neckline?


----------



## zed327 (1 April 2007)

Pulled this of nine msn.
Edited version below or read the full story    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=61801


Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has signalled his support for an end to the policy after commissioning research which showed uranium mining would not hurt his state's multi-billion-dollar coal industry.

Mr Beattie urged those angry over any perceived backflip by him on the issue not to get their "knickers in a knot", arguing the ALP national conference motion could give Queensland the flexibility not to go ahead with uranium mines.

"If, indeed, there is a position that says nationally that we will mine uranium then we will mine uranium," he told reporters.

"If, however, the national resolution gives discretion, then we will not, we will stick to the existing policy (of no uranium mines)."

Queensland is estimated to have up to $3.2 billion in uranium deposits.

Mr Rudd said the national conference resolution would give states the power to refuse to have mines.

"The role of the national government is to clear the way when it comes to export licences for uranium and that's the matter that we'll be discussing at conference," he said.

"On the question of local land use decision making for the entire resource industry, including the uranium industry, that remains a province of the states, be it Western Australia, Queensland or anywhere else."


If the 3 mines policy is turfed out this would make AGS a dead certainty and Queensland hopefulls very shakey.
AGS - Quaser will mine sooner than most think.


----------



## Halba (1 April 2007)

> zed327: AGS - Quaser will mine sooner than most think.




has to go through a full feasibility, approvals, construction. it is not coming out overnight so lets not get ahead of ourselves here. Information is scant as AGS do not control the operations.


----------



## zed327 (1 April 2007)

So do all the others but do they have as much government support as AGS?

Mine approval in the next 12 months - not to many are going to get that.


"The South Australian Mines Minister, Mr Paul Holloway, spoke at the [Paydirt] conference and re-iterated the South Australian Government’s support for uranium exploration and mining in South Australia. He is reported as saying that two more South Australian uranium mines were up for approval in the next 12 months – these were Curnamona Energy’s Oban project and Quasar-Alliance’s Beverley Four Mile project (Australian Financial Review, 23 March 2007)." 

Unlike many pretenders AGS is the real deal.
Heathgate is doing an awful lot of good work behind the scenes, that many do not recognise.


----------



## mmmmining (1 April 2007)

zed327 said:


> S
> Unlike many pretenders AGS is the real deal.



Tell the true, I am CEO of AGS. I cannot tell you, my loyal shareholder, even all approvals from all governmental agencies are obtained, I still cannot tell you whether we are going to mining it, or to the less extend, when? 

Why?  We only own 25% of that, and not an operator. I apology for short-sighted. I should never farm-out the tenement. Have a nice day, and thank you for your support.


----------



## laurie (2 April 2007)

Had a friend in S.A.ring me, telling me the S.A. Premier was reported talking of a significant uranium find in S.A. if its AGS it will blast off to the moon or he could be referring to GIR or CUY  

cheers laurie

ps it could also be an April fools trick also


----------



## Mousie (2 April 2007)

mmmmining said:


> Tell the true, I am CEO of AGS. I cannot tell you, my loyal shareholder, even all approvals from all governmental agencies are obtained, I still cannot tell you whether we are going to mining it, or to the less extend, when?
> 
> Why?  We only own 25% of that, and not an operator. I apology for short-sighted. I should never farm-out the tenement. Have a nice day, and thank you for your support.




Considering this was posted 3 mins before midnight, mmmmining was having his last April Fool's joke for the year surely


----------



## Damuzzdu (2 April 2007)

S.A. Premier, Mike Rann was on local TV last night talking about a :

"Major new U discovery"

Spent hrs searching over the net and this was posted early today.

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,21486980-910,00.html

I think there is little doubt that it is AGS ground at B4M.

Cheers


----------



## Fab (2 April 2007)

I suppose this is a bit of a giveaway that it is about AGS's discovery.
"Quasar Resources managing director Geoff McConachy said last night that a formal announcement would be made today by the company's joint venture partner, Alliance Resource"


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

Damuzzdu said:


> S.A. Premier, Mike Rann was on local TV last night talking about a :
> 
> "Major new U discovery"
> 
> ...



Thanks Dam, Worth putting in the first couple of paras on this:



> *Massive deposit to rival Roxby Downs*
> NICK HENDERSON, ANTO FAGASTA, CHILE, MICHAEL OWEN
> April 02, 2007 02:15am
> 
> ...




There's not much new information in the article really, but preempting an announcement like this.... how do company's get away with it? I suppose if it's before the open it won't matter..


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

Huh? B4M is not a new discovery? Am i missing something or are they rehashing the b4m ann? Sounds like an april fools. How is the premier expected to know drill results before the public?


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

Ann out but it's just in regard to the appointment of a consultancy firm to conduct a scoping study, leading to PFS. 'Mineral resources estimate for the higher grade zone at 4MW is well advanced'. I think we were all expecting the JORC. Looks like it's going to gap up, but disappointing to me. The JORC was supposed to be last year. Perhaps it's going to be a seperate ann by Quasar??


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

How does one do a scoping study without a JORC? Hmm not much in that announcement. Looks like a bit rampy without any numbers if I'm correct. Still has to do PFS, BFS, lets not get too excited. Again AGS has delivered nothing new in 2007, and they've had four months.


----------



## spooly74 (2 April 2007)

Ann out: Alliance, Quasar move to scoping study on MAJOR SOUTH AUSTRALIAN URANIUM DISCOVERY.

Study to take 8 weeks and lead to a Pre-Feasibility Study and Mining Lease applications during 2007.

With a $14 million dollar drilling program this year for B4 East and B4South I`m confident that AGS are well on their way to mmining


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> How does one do a scoping study without a JORC? Hmm not much in that announcement. Looks like a bit rampy without any numbers if I'm correct. Still has to do PFS, BFS, lets not get too excited. Again AGS has delivered nothing new in 2007, and they've had four months.



They actually state that the scoping study will start 'following the release of the maiden resource estimate'. So it must be at hand obviously.


----------



## mmmmining (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> How does one do a scoping study without a JORC? Hmm not much in that announcement. Looks like a bit rampy without any numbers if I'm correct. Still has to do PFS, BFS, lets not get too excited. Again AGS has delivered nothing new in 2007, and they've had four months.




Just show the commitment from Quasar, get people lineup for scoping as soon as they can release the maiden resource estimate. Or it is just a promise. 

The scope study only happened after the resources estimate.


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

spooly74 said:


> Ann out: Alliance, Quasar move to scoping study on *MAJOR SOUTH AUSTRALIAN URANIUM DISCOVERY*.
> 
> Study to take 8 weeks and lead to a Pre-Feasibility Study and Mining Lease applications during 2007.
> 
> With a $14 million dollar drilling program this year for B4 East and B4South I`m confident that AGS are well on their way to mmining




Can we get more rampy or what? Sorry and being a bit kennas on AGS but I don't see any numbers!! This discovery was made in 2005, why recycle old info?


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> Can we get more rampy or what? Sorry and being a bit kennas on AGS but I don't see any numbers!! This discovery was made in 2005, why recycle old info?



Correct, no need to rehash old info.

Scoping study seems to be new to me though. 

Still disappointed that Quasar haven't got the JORC out earlier, but the reasons were ANSTO being busy and issues with the logging tools earlier. We're complaining about AGS here, but it seems to have been Quasar's problems really. It is their project isn't it.


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

Scoping doesn't mean too much without any results from scope study, even MTN is doing a scope study market value $200m on 80 million pounds 100% owned in same area. Arguably AGS was priced at a premium prior to this ann(on currently known drills/results).


----------



## spooly74 (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> can we get more rampy or what? sorry and being a bit kennas on ags but i don't see any numbers!! This discovery was made in 2005, why recycle old info?




Fair enough,
I should have waited until they release their upcoming JORC.

I`ve seen far worse ramps though


----------



## insider (2 April 2007)

Was that report a ramp? Kennas as moderator can you remove their announcement?

What I want to know is how did the Premier of SA AKA the boring state know of this discovery before it was available to shareholders... not fair


----------



## nizar (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> This discovery was made in 2005, why recycle old info?




Simply really.
To ramp the share price.
Seems to have worked up 18% at the open.


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

insider said:


> Was that report a ramp? Kennas as moderator can you remove their announcement?
> 
> What I want to know is how did the Premier of SA AKA the boring state know of this discovery before it was available to shareholders... not fair



LOL. Yes, I will tell AGS not to put words like 'largest' in their announcements in the future. I'll also ensure that all the newspapers refrain from the same. Cheers. You're right about the gov knowing of the ann, but it was brought out before the open, so alls fair.


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> Seems to have worked up 18% at the open.




Won't work over time.


----------



## laurie (2 April 2007)

On since .14c so the chicken has layed its eggs for me   READ BETWEEN THE LINES and you will find its a goer $$$$$$$$$

cheers laurie


----------



## laurie (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> Won't work over time.




Has for me Halba : 

cheers laurie


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

I put this up last week, or on the weekend, and it's gapped up to the red circle for the minute. I would be happy if it just holds above $2.05 resistance. 

Longer term this gap up is a good move, but as Halba is alluding to, the market cap is getting a bit hexie on a not released JORC. The JORC and any comments they make about the future prospects of Arkaroola will be important to determine if Mr Market thinks it should have a market cap approaching $600m. If Quasar/Heathgate want to take this over they will have to work fast.


----------



## captjohn (2 April 2007)

Don't be too hard on 'em guys....but Wowie ...20% up for announcing scoping study.......sets precedent for others including BMN when its time comes around..


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

captjohn said:


> Don't be too hard on 'em guys....but Wowie ...20% up for announcing scoping study.......sets precedent for others including BMN when it's time comes around..




Correct captjohn. When BMN ann scoping study +20%. Bear in mind if AGS goes up 20%, its only 25% owned, so thats like going up about $400m dollars (if it was 100% owned). $400m dollars value increase, and not even scoping study results.


----------



## captjohn (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> Correct captjohn. When BMN ann scoping study +20%. Bear in mind if AGS goes up 20%, its only 25% owned, so thats like going up about $400m dollars (if it was 100% owned). $400m dollars value increase, and not even scoping study results.




Thanx halba..... Question?Sso where does *scoping study fit in* between confirmed resources and feasibility study??


----------



## Prospector (2 April 2007)

Well, our 'beloved' good news Mike (aka the premier - small caps deliberate) was champing about this all over the weekend - the biggest find in Australia he said.  Wonder if a premier can be given a speeding ticket from the asx, or even be accused of insider trading.


----------



## insider (2 April 2007)

Prospector said:


> or even be accused of insider trading.




Did somebody say INSIDER


----------



## Broadside (2 April 2007)

Don't know what the fuss is about, people following this stock have been saying what Rann has for some time, anyway it's good to put the stock on a wider radar.  Rann really should learn to shut his mouth when talking about public companies.


----------



## spooly74 (2 April 2007)

Big Uranium Discovery Has Market Excited
FN Arena News - April 02 2007

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

The reported discovery of a large new uranium deposit in South Australia with alleged potential to rival the country's biggest deposit at Olympic Dam has given uranium stocks in Australia another boost on Monday morning.

The discovery was reported by regional newspaper The Advertiser on Monday. The newspaper quotes South Australian premier Mike Rann as saying "I am told it is uranium of the highest grade and has the potential to be a significant major mine".

The find was made by unlisted Australian explorer Heathgate Resources. Share prices of Heathgate's joint venture partners Adelaide Resources Ltd (ADN) and Alliance Resources Ltd (AGS) rose strongly on Monday morning.

Adelaide Resources' CEO is quoted in the newspaper saying the new discovery could be the biggest uranium find in Australia in 25 years.

About a hour after the bourse opened on Monday morning, Adelaide Resources shares were trading nearly 18% higher at 56c while shares of Alliance were 13.66% higher at $2.33.



http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=AFC91C4B-17A4-1130-F5A099D8013F4A0D

Only the messenger this time :hide:


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

Mike has definately bought some shares in this. LOL. He's just come out with a press release confirming his support for uranium mining in his back yard. Claims B4B could be a 'major mine by the end of this year'. He's joking isn't he. How can it possibly be a 'major mine' by the end of this year. Surely not.  Perhaps if they move all the workers and equipment from Beverley...


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

More ramping:



> RANN WILL LOBBY TO CHANGE URANIUM POLICY
> Premier Mike Rann has vowed to step up his fight to change national Labor’s ‘no new mines’ policy
> on uranium at the ALP National Conference to be held later next month.
> Speaking from Chile, where he is touring major mine operations and associated infrastructure, Mr
> ...




http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070402/pdf/00707953.pdf


----------



## Broadside (2 April 2007)

kennas said:


> Mike has definately bought some shares in this. LOL. He's just come out with a press release confirming his support for uranium mining in his back yard. Claims B4B could be a 'major mine by the end of this year'. He's joking isn't he. How can it possibly be a 'major mine' by the end of this year. Surely not.  Perhaps if they move all the workers and equipment from Beverley...




I can see them producing within 2-3 years which is relatively fast cf the other U wannabies - those that actually have an economic resource that is (probably a small minority), I would be amazed if it were 12 months, delighted but amazed...really can't see it happening.  I don't think the announcment itself was a ramp from the company, rather they had to release something after the reports in the weekend papers in Adelaide.


----------



## laurie (2 April 2007)

The JORC will now have to be the combined western and eastern zone results

cheers laurie


----------



## Go Nuke (2 April 2007)

Nice depth of 3.97Million showing now on Commsec.

Bring on the 8 weeks time!
I like the sound of "well advanced"

With the volume the way it is and the MACD line taking off into positive air, this could be AGS's chance to play catch up with the others like MTN.

I remember reading in the paper in bout Sept last year when I was looking for a stock to enter the share market with. It read something along the lines of "Potenially some of the worlds highest quality U" and I though..ok..that might be a good start

Ann will do great soon


----------



## Sean K (2 April 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> With the volume the way it is and the MACD line taking off into positive air, this could be AGS's chance to play catch up with the others like MTN.



Should check the market caps Nuke. I think MTN is playing catch up to AGS..


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

There has been no change in fundamentals of the stock. Yet the share is up... go nuke.


----------



## nizar (2 April 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> With the volume the way it is and the MACD line taking off into positive air, this could be AGS's chance to play catch up with the others like MTN.




LOL for MTN to reach $600million thats about 10 bucks.


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

If it gets to $600m I'll be a rich boy. But as of now treading water atm  relative to AGS. AGS attributable JORC prolly 1/4 of MTN's jorc? LOL LOL


----------



## Go Nuke (2 April 2007)

Well...maybe i got a little excited.....but..it IS an all time high since about March 97 

We have until Thursday i suppose to see when it closes after any profit taking.
And I guessing..its possible that there could be a lot of that.


----------



## spooly74 (2 April 2007)

Halba said:


> AGS attributable JORC prolly 1/4 of MTN's jorc? LOL LOL




Might not even be that much but it`s only their first JORC 
and the agressive drilling campaign this year will buy them some more.

AGS/Quasar resource will not be fully known for a while.

Seriously though, MTN has an impressive resource of about
32,000 t u3o8 from  45 million t/ore body.
How do MTN plan to mine it?


----------



## zed327 (2 April 2007)

MTN is in a protected reserve and have got one hell of a job to get past all the relevent do gooders to be able to mine.
All the uranium that MTN have ain't worth a cracker if they are not allowed to get it out of the ground where as AGS are already half way there with all this political backing.
AGS will be the first new u mine to start up,no buts about it.


----------



## mmmmining (2 April 2007)

zed327 said:


> MTN is in a protected reserve and have got one hell of a job to get past all the relevent do gooders to be able to mine.
> All the uranium that MTN have ain't worth a cracker if they are not allowed to get it out of the ground where as AGS are already half way there with all this political backing.
> AGS will be the first new u mine to start up,no buts about it.




Show me the document about MTN in a protected reserve, seriously, I want to read it. If you can produce the document, I will send you $1,000 for your service. If you cannot, it would not cost anything. 

Let met tell something, MTN is in a Pastoral Zone. Mining is allowed even it is classified as Type A. 

Of course, it is tougher to get EIA done. A lot of so-called environmentalist will against it. This is a country ruled by law. They will fail. Nevertheless, it is still better than a project in a banned state.

Because of the mis-understanding of the environmental issue, MTN is serious undervalued, and AGS has very rich valuation even does not have a JORC resource. 

People start to understand the process of EIA, etc. MTN has appreciate significantly. As a matter of fact, In sept 2006, both AGS and  MTN were about 80c, MTN has out-performed AGS a lot ever since.


----------



## insider (2 April 2007)

mmmmining said:


> Show me the document about MTN in a protected reserve, seriously, I want to read it. If you can produce the document, I will send you $1,000 for your service. If you cannot, it would not cost anything.
> 
> Let met tell something, MTN is in a Pastoral Zone. Mining is allowed even it is classified as Type A.
> 
> ...




I've posted in the MTN thread that Mt Gee is a Registered National Estate which means I get some of that $1000 right? These things can be reviewed anyway not to worry


----------



## Halba (2 April 2007)

AGS also has to go through EIA and is in the same area as MTN. I'm sure the same wildlife etc will be there in AGS and MTN's ground. So whats the difference???


----------



## mmmmining (2 April 2007)

insider said:


> I've posted in the MTN thread that Mt Gee is a Registered National Estate which means I get some of that $1000 right? These things can be reviewed anyway not to worry




Insider, You just make me sick. I  burnt midnight oil to find a few sleeping pills for you just last night. Now try to back-stab me. Good job.  

By the way, any land with exploration license issued is not a protected reserve or natural reserve, or national park. A registration on a XYZ list does not prevent it from drilling. It is a fact. It has been drilled not just by MTN, last drilling is around 2000 by GDM. 

I am pretty sure it would not be prevented from mining if MTN can pass the tough EIA. Let's wait for the Coffey's scope study.

Sorry for AGS readers. I would not do it again.


----------



## insider (2 April 2007)

mmmmining said:


> Insider, You just make me sick. I  burnt midnight oil to find a few sleeping pills for you just last night. Now try to back-stab me. Good job.
> 
> By the way, any land with exploration license issued is not a protected reserve or natural reserve, or national park. A registration on a XYZ list does not prevent it from drilling. It is a fact. It has been drilled not just by MTN, last drilling is around 2000 by GDM.
> 
> ...




Lol... like I said the National Estate register can be reviewed because the initial conservation policy would have been very broad... I don't think the entire Mountain is special only parts of it... But it's good to see we are now on the same page about MTN drilling in the area so obviously there is exception to the company and hopefully it extends to mining...

ANYWAY LET'S DISCUSS MTN IN THE PROPER THREAD AND NOT IN AGS


----------



## siempre33 (3 April 2007)

"Rann said that subject to Alliance and Quasar board approvals the Four Mile joint venture is planning to submit a mining lease application for development by the end of this year for development of "a major mine.""

Australian uranium again impacted by political swings and roundabouts

Conflicting policies have been announced by the State Premiers of Queensland and South Australia on uranium mining in their jurisdictions.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Monday , 02 Apr 2007

PERTH - 

The Australian share market's view of political certainty for sweeping change by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) to its restrictive policy on uranium mining and exports took one step backwards and another forward today with comments by Labor Premiers in the key states of Queensland and South Australia.

This comes within less than four weeks before the national conference of the ALP meets to discuss major policy issues including whether the No New Mines policy would be changed to a more open policy on allowing new mines. Labor controls all state governments and has its Federal Leader Kevin Rudd leading Prime Minister John Howard in opinion polls, and Rudd will be leading the push for change.

Political observers had been seeing the party rump falling in line with Rudd's wish and that included Queensland Premier Peter Beattie. However, today Beattie told an ABC News programme that if conference gave the states discretion on this issue, then he would not allow uranium mining.

Clearly, the anti uranium hardliners in the party will be pushing for discretionary powers as a second fall back line and, if so, then Queensland with some of Australia's huge undeveloped deposits would close its doors, along with Western Australia where Premier Alan Carpenter has been saying for some time there would be no uranium mines under his reign.

The Northern Territory, where Chief Minister Clare Martin made it clear at her re-election last year that she would ban new uranium mines, is in a political conundrum for the Federal Liberal government made it clear that it was a dependency of Canberra which wants new mines, and that would happen.

A pro development policy may be invoked for the NT even if Rudd beats Howard at the next Federal election, however, one day in the life of Australian uranium politics is proving right now to be a variation on the next.

Beattie's comments will spook many investors in Queensland uranium stocks, including Summit Resources which owns 100% of several deposits near Mount Isa and owns other key deposits 50/50 with Paladin Resources which has mounted a hostile takeover.

However, the immediate response on he tAustralian Stock Exchange trading today was a minor slip in Summit's price by $A0.13 to the $A4.80 range.

In contrast to Queensland, the pro mining state of South Australia which hosts two of the country's uranium mines - BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam and Heathgate Resources' Beverley - made it clear it would be supporting an end to the ALP's current policy and development of one of the country's exciting new discoveries. This is Four Mile, near Beverley, where Heathgate's search arm Quasar Resources is earning 70% from junior Alliance Resources.

SA Premier Mike Rann, speaking from Chile, released today a statement to coincide with Alliance-Quasar's announcement of more drilling leading to a scoping and pre-feasibility study.

Last year SA's Mines Minister Paul Holloway told this writer that it had already granted SXR Uranium One a mining lease for its Honeymoon project in the same region as Beverley as a clear-cut sign that the state wanted to upend current ALP policy.

Rann also said today that the expansion of BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam mine would see uranium output rise from 4,000 tonnes per annum to 15,000 tpa - more than Canada's entire production. Though the current policy would not prevent Olympic Dam's expansion it "stands in the way of the further development of SA's potential."

Rann said that in February there were 166 mineral exploration licences for uranium in SA and a further 105 applications for licences.

There were 60 companies and individuals holding uranium licences, including Heathgate Resources, SXR Uranium One, PepinNini Minerals, Curnamona Energy and Marathon Resources.

Rann said that subject to Alliance and Quasar board approvals the Four Mile joint venture is planning to submit a mining lease application for development by the end of this year for development of "a major mine."

Alliance, as the public company on the Australian Stock Exchange, gave no indication of the growing resource at Four Mile which has two tandem roll front-style deposits that have given many high grade hits, particularly from intensive exploration on the most advanced Four Mile West Zone.

At last year's Broken Hill Exploration Initiative a paper was made available on research by the Lonsec group - that provides a service to Alliance - that placed Four Mile as already ahead of other Australian uranium deposits -- Yeelirrie, Valhalla and Kintyre, in grade terms, and the now maturing Ranger uranium mine for Energy Resources of Australia Ltd in the NT.

Ranger has performed well with a healthy grade of U3O8 of 0.16% but Lonsec considers Four Mile could well be 0.26% U3O8.

Four Mile, carrying the name of a nearby creek, is in the shadow of the North Flinders, where into the ranges Quasar also holds significant copper discoveries and there are other major uranium prospects, including Marathon's Mount Gee.

The Lonsec figures, based on Four Mile drilling to mid 2006, were estimated more on North America's broader resource interpretation than Australia's more stringent JORC Code. Four Mile Hill is being further drilled to initially get up to a JORC Code inferred resource. (Lonsec cites a "potential" resource in the East and West zones of 20.5 million tonnes grading 0.26% U3O8 for a contained 116M pounds). Drilling has focused on the Lower Roll Front with mineralisation to that time extending to between 160-180 metres depth in a broad sheet of sand system, as compared with the more sinuous channels of Beverley's lower grade mineralization, 10 kilometres away.

At the Broken Hill conference Quasar's exploration manager Geoff McConachy told this writer that Four Mile may well open up a new geological play for uranium in the Lake Frome-North Flinders region.

Grades picked up from the more intense drilling on the Four Mile West zone included 11m @ 0.8% U3O8, 9m @ 1.66% U3O8. 9.5m @ 0.97% and 3m @ 2.1% U3O8.

Heathgate is a subsidiary of General Atomics Group of the United States, a huge private company with uranium mining, trading and mine remediation subsidiaries in the US and the UIT group in Dresden in Germany.

As well as the Alliance JV, Heathgate has sown up joint ventures north and south of Beverley with Giralia Resources and with Paladin Resources.

http://www.mineweb.com:8080/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=18953&sn=Detail


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## Glenhaven (3 April 2007)

FOUR MILE URANIUM FIND COMING TO SURFACE

Barry Fitzgerald
April 3, 2007


CONFIRMATION that the Four Mile discovery of US group Heathgate and Melbourne-based Alliance Resources near Heathgate's Beverley uranium mine in South Australia is one of Australia's best has yet to occur, with an initial resource estimate still not made.

But the partners have done the next best thing by revealing that an eight-week scoping study has started and that it will lead to a pre-feasibility study and mining lease applications later this year.

Shares in the Melbourne-based Alliance surged 25 ¢, or 12 per cent, to $2.30 in response to the revelation, which had the effect of rekindling expectations that when the initial resource estimate is finally released ”” it was due before last Christmas ”” it could be something special.

Alliance has signalled previously that high-grade uranium hits at the discovery indicate potential for it to eventually be the biggest uranium deposit of its type in the world (roll-front, sandstone-hosted). Melbourne businessman Ian Gandel controls about 36 per cent of the company. Before the 2005 discovery of Four Mile, it was best known for its Maldon gold project in Victoria.

Alliance has a 25 per cent free-carried interest in Four Mile, named for its distance from the operating Beverley mine.

Operator and 75 per cent partner is Quasar Resources, the exploration arm of Heathgate (itself part of US group General Atomics), owner-operator of Beverley, which produced 854 tonnes of uranium in 2005-06.


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## Glenhaven (3 April 2007)

Last post, sorry forgot to say from the Age today.


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## breakeven (3 April 2007)

Glenhaven, that article coupled with the latest statements by Rudd that basically states can decide their own uranium policy are very bullish for AGS.  Add to that Heathcote spending $14m on holes and a gold project that looks positive.


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## 123happy (3 April 2007)

There is more to go for AGS although 4000%+ gain is a bit daunting.


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## Fab (4 April 2007)

123happy said:


> There is more to go for AGS although 4000%+ gain is a bit daunting.




Indeed but then look at PDN


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## Go Nuke (17 April 2007)

I cant believe that only say 2 weeks ago, it was clear as day that the S.A government were mentioning that it would be AGS and Heathgate's etc etc resource that would likly turn into another Beverly Mine.......yet AGS share price is starting to slip backwards again! 

Why does it feel like AGS is the only U company NOT going forward as much as others in the area????

Ok..I wont compare it to MTN..lol cuz there is obviuosly no comparison there. I hear its the difference in market cap between these two...but why else is AGS so slow to move in a positive direction?

Is it the 25% free carried interest?
Any help shed some light on this for me please.
Its fustrating.

Thx

:microwave


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## Sean K (17 April 2007)

It's consolidating.

Market cap is high comparitively to other U players. 

Market's now waiting for Quasar to get hold of the initial JORC, before rerating company either up, or down.

May be more consolidation to go.


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## Halba (17 April 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> I cant believe that only say 2 weeks ago, it was clear as day that the S.A government were mentioning that it would be AGS and Heathgate's etc etc resource that would likly turn into another Beverly Mine.......yet AGS share price is starting to slip backwards again!
> 
> Why does it feel like AGS is the only U company NOT going forward as much as others in the area????
> 
> ...




Go nuke

AGS is a nothing gold company that got lucky with the 4 mile find on its free carried tenements. Apart from that management appear to be ill equipped to improve the company any further. As a holder of a 25% free carry theres simply not much to be done, and no news will come. Heathgate a private operator motivated by self interest will produce whenever they feel like it. They are under no obligation to disclose anything to AGS. Not to mention as it only holds 25% of the JV, it is selling at exorbitant dollar per pound(like shopping in an upmarket department store). A disappointing JORC for the western zone is expected as its just for a tiny area. Eastern zone whilst sizeable is a LOW grade deposit averaging 300ppm hence should not be commanding a premium over stuff like Bannerman which is also low grade but in a better location.

It also compares poorly on a peer valuation with sector peers.

Assuming 25mil pounds in both areas its share, it is selling for 600/25 = $25/lb roughly. Market value being $600m.

MTN - mkt value $363M(even after SP increases)

BMN - mkt value ~$500m

PNN - mkt value ~$190m

BLR  - mkt value $200m(a similar type of deposit to AGS)

DYL - mkt value $600m

All are trading at lower market caps, and probably have similar or much ""higher pounds in the ground""

Disclosure: Frustrated holder of 4700 AGS.


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## Sean K (17 April 2007)

Halba said:


> AGS is a nothing gold company that got lucky with the 4 mile find on its free carried tenements.



Quasar farmed in to AGS. AGS pegged it I believe. Lucky?



Halba said:


> Apart from that management appear to be ill equipped to improve the company any further. As a holder of a 25% free carry theres simply not much to be done, and no news will come.



Correct, it's Quasar who are leading this up to the decision to mine. Criticising AGS for delayed results is not appropriate.



Halba said:


> Heathgate a private operator motivated by self interest will produce whenever they feel like it. They are under no obligation to disclose anything to AGS.



It's not in Quasar/Heathgates interest to get this to mining stage rapidly? Why would they not want that? No obigation? Have you seen the MOU? 



Halba said:


> Not to mention as it only holds 25% of the JV, it is selling at exorbitant dollar per pound (like shopping in an upmarket department store).



 The total JORCs not even out yet. It is no doubt at a high market cap, but we do not know what is actually there. Nice analogy. 



Halba said:


> A disappointing JORC for the western zone is expected as its just for a tiny area.



 Reference? If it was expected why has it got such a large market cap? 



Halba said:


> Eastern zone whilst sizeable is a LOW grade deposit averaging 300ppm hence should not be commanding a premium over stuff like Bannerman which is also low grade but in a better location.



This is more advanced than BMN, scoping study will start immediately after the JORC is released which is imminent, it sits next to an adjacent U mine operated by it's JV partner, and is being promoted by the State Premier who has said he will be giving them a lisence to mine sometime toward the end of the year, after Labor give the States the power to make their own decisions to mine which Rudd has stated he will.


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## Halba (17 April 2007)

kennas said:


> If it was expected why has it got such a large market cap?




Exploration potential. Re: comparison with BMN no real point, but i'm saying BMN has a lower mkt cap and it owns 80% of its deposits. Thats a joke enuff said.


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## zed327 (17 April 2007)

Halba i agree this wait for jorc is frustrating.

Frustrating watching MTN BMN PNN SMM shoot skywards while AGS stalls.

I don't agree with the other statements.

I have learnt hard lessons before by trying to chase the flavor of the month only to watch the slow coach stock i was on bolt as soon as i jump off.   

With $14 million drilling program - jorc - scoping study - feasability study - mining licence + the increasing price of uranium this should be part of your superannuation.

This is the only stock i have that i will not trade because of the long term value.


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## laurie (17 April 2007)

And when Mr Rann mouthed off he knew what he was doing knowing the resource is locked in for mining  

cheers laurie


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## danc (17 April 2007)

This bloke Halbut is the eternal pessimest, why waste your time going toe for toe with him???? Blind freddy can see where this one is going so he must be blinder than blind freddy.


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## Halba (17 April 2007)

Unfortunately danc your post adds nothing meaningful to this thread or the analysis of AGS. You have even spelled my nickname wrong. At least I use numbers to illustrate my point, why don't you use something to back up your statements other than "blind freddie can see to that". Nothing is a sure thing in the stock market. Sure a rising tide will lift all boats, and all stocks will benefit, but some will benefit more due to better fundamentals. AGS is about forty cents overvalued, probably too high >>$20/lb


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## Sean K (17 April 2007)

Halba said:


> Exploration potential. Re: comparison with BMN no real point, but i'm saying BMN has a lower mkt cap and it owns 80% of its deposits. Thats a joke enuff said.



I agree that comparison with BMN is not appropriate. It is not close enough to being a true 'peer' IMO. Reasosns are: ownership of assets, other projects, exploration potential, country, stage of exploration/development, quality of JV partner, vicinity to infrastructure including current mills, different environment regulations, etc etc. So, perhaps even comparing market caps to potential resources is futile.  



Halba said:


> Unfortunately danc your post adds nothing meaningful to this thread or the analysis of AGS. You have even spelled my nickname wrong. At least I use numbers to illustrate my point, why don't you use something to back up your statements other than "blind freddie can see to that". Nothing is a sure thing in the stock market. Sure a rising tide will lift all boats, and all stocks will benefit, but some will benefit more due to better fundamentals. AGS is about forty cents overvalued, probably too high >>$20/lb



I agree, danc you need to provide some more objective analysis to support your statements here. Then we can discuss things reasonably. And yes, Halba, nothing is a sure thing which you fail to recognise sometimes too. BMN and ERN are not 'sure things', as you have proclaimed. Please disagree with me there if you like.  AGS overvalued by 40 cents? Is that at $20 lb v cap? I think there needs to be more discussion on this too. Remember, when valuing companies you need to take into consideration ALL their projects, exploration potential, plant, cash on hand, etc etc. 

The high market cap concerns me, and I think that there is some blue sky factored into the sp at the moment, whether that be potential discoveries of IOCGU in Arkaroola, or a takeover premium. But, I can't put a figure on it with my limited FA abilities. Maybe in another 10 years or so.


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## spooly74 (18 April 2007)

Halba said:


> Go nuke
> 
> AGS is a nothing gold company that got lucky with the 4 mile find on its free carried tenements. Apart from that management appear to be ill equipped to improve the company any further. As a holder of a 25% free carry theres simply not much to be done, and no news will come. Heathgate a private operator motivated by self interest will produce whenever they feel like it. They are under no obligation to disclose anything to AGS. Not to mention as it only holds 25% of the JV, it is selling at exorbitant dollar per pound(like shopping in an upmarket department store). A disappointing JORC for the western zone is expected as its just for a tiny area. Eastern zone whilst sizeable is a LOW grade deposit averaging 300ppm hence should not be commanding a premium over stuff like Bannerman which is also low grade but in a better location.
> 
> Disclosure: Frustrated holder of 4700 AGS.




Quasar farmed into AGS and the resulting agreement between the 2 companies led to AGS being free carried until a decision to mine is made.
AGS does not have to spend 1 cent on drilling, on lab assays, labour, equipment, mapping, soil testing and also nothing on the licensing and permitting process, EIS or BFS...nothing.

You also comment that management are ill equipped to improve the company further. Care to provide any support to this argument? Based on what?

If you are just going to mention that the running of the project is in the hands of Heathgate and AGS have no control, then don`t bother responding because I for one and very happy with this partnership.

How many other juniors have the experience of an international uranium producer in their back pocket? 

Do you really believe that Heathgate are going to sit on their **** and do nothing with regards to B4 Mile?.....don`t think so.

Although there has been no drilling updates and the JORC has been delayed, Alliance today sits around the same price it was about Christmas which imo show strong support for the fundamentals. 

The top 20 shareholders control 55% of the shares on issue which leaves about 100 million to play with, and interesting to note that during the retrace that saw AGS slump to $1.40 recently, the top 20 increased their percentage.

We may have had no drilling results for a couple of months but that is out of managements control and so was the problem with the PFN logging tool 
(little ol AGS has access to 2 PFN tools, from memory there are only about a dozen worldwide) 

In the announcement to the ASX on the 15/3 this year, we were told that drilling at Four Mile West was completed.
We were also told that a soil survey had commenced and that 3 of the 4 monitor wells had been completed at Four Mile West and that they were set up with pumps and data loggers. 

This tells me that AGS and our good buddies Heathgate are getting ready for a field leach trial which will also provide support for our Environmental Impact Statement.

Monitor wells are situated around each mineralised zone to detect any movement of mining fluids outside the mining area. 
The wells are cased to ensure that mineralised fluids only flow to and from the ore zone and do not affect any overlying aquifers (see image below) but the water quality at Beverley is very poor to start with and unusable anyway which is a positive for the EIS.

This is why having Heathgate in you corner is a massive advantage, they`ve been there and know the correct steps to take to mine the resource.

As an example, in 1998 a field leach trial at Beverley was an outstanding success, with recoveries three times what was expected, and it established the commercial viability of the project. 
A new draft EIS was released for public comment in July 1998 and the Supplement in October, with environmental and other approvals being given early in 1999. Production began the following year.........that's a 1998 field leach trial to production in just over 2 years.

So what have we got to look forward to?

First JORC for the High grade 1km squared due any day.

A 200 hole program for B4 East is underway and on a 200m x 100m grid and 100m by 100m grid in higher grade areas ($14 million budget)
ISL well fields are roughly spaced on a 30m x 30m grid so management will be well placed to map areas for the pumps which will be progressively established over the ore body.

Scoping study to begin after the first JORC is released and expected to take 8 weeks. I`m guessing they will ISL the whole deposit apart from the high grade western part which will be open pit to maximize grade.

Application for a mining lease this year and I suspect Rann is ready to give the green light and has a shovel at hand in case he gets a call to arms.

News flow had been poor so far but will be thick and fast in the remaining quarters this year.

Halba, you cannot simply estimate any $EV/lb for AGS because there is no concrete data to work off yet, it`s back of the envelope stuff at best and is flawed because every deposit is different.
You say it`s only 25% ...old news, 25% of what....... we will not know the full resource till late 07, early 08, and who knows there might be more major discoveries to the south.

If your so frustrated with your 4700 shares then simply sell em and move on.

What could you be waiting for?


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## bumble_boo_bum (18 April 2007)

spooly74 said:


> .
> How many other juniors have the experience of an international uranium producer in their back pocket?
> .




MDX also have a JV with Quasar. 

Cheers


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## wallave (18 April 2007)

Spooley74 - great post.   Great overview and gets me excited again


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## Halba (18 April 2007)

AGS moving strongly again, it is certainly well supported at these levels. Let the market decide. As you say spooly- like to be news in 3rd and 4th Q 2007. Nice diagram.


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## chicken (18 April 2007)

Halba said:


> AGS moving strongly again, it is certainly well supported at these levels. Let the market decide. As you say spooly- like to be news in 3rd and 4th Q 2007. Nice diagram.



Spooley...you got it right...why..??? the research is there...and I am holding as well...only post which made sense today..


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## Go Nuke (18 April 2007)

WOW...fantastic guys!
I cant thank you enough for your input!

I guess its just the slowness of watching other U explorers take off while AGS putters along {As you said Zed327}

I wish I knew and could understand half of the technical side that you all discuss, but as I read new info it provokes me to do more reseach to try learn more of the terminology you all talk about.

I really do need to find out more about WHY a market cap has so much to do with companies. {better go look in the beginners room}

Great info Spooly74!
Very much appriciated.
Sometimes I think we have a mix of accountants and mining engineers here on ASF..lol.

Thx everyone.
GN.


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## Omninewbie (18 April 2007)

Are you asking why market cap, as opposed to the sp, has so much to do with a company? 

The market cap measures the equity in the company. The sp alone says nothing.

I guess to put it in context look at, for e.g., Qantas. Its sp is around $5.40. MTN is also around $5.40. Surely you wouldn't think that MTN is worth anywhere near Qantas' value.

The fact is, MTN is not even anywhere near Qantas in market cap terms.


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## laurie (18 April 2007)

Another thing that AGS has to cross if the decision to mine is made it needs to fork out $$$ for it's share, so DILUTION could end up being a problem because either they do another spp or hope that their Gold mine is producing $$$ and new mines are not cheap even 25% could cost them well over $50m+ unless someone wants the 25% and will pay for it 

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (18 April 2007)

laurie said:


> Another thing that AGS has to cross if the decision to mine is made it needs to fork out $$$ for it's share, so DILUTION could end up being a problem because either they do another spp or hope that their Gold mine is producing $$$ and new mines are not cheap even 25% could cost them well over $50m+ unless someone wants the 25% and will pay for it
> 
> cheers laurie



Good point Laurie. I've been thinking about this myself. I don't think Maldon will pay for it. It's going to take a little while for that to ramp up. After mining begins at B4M it will take a couple of years to ramp also, so maybe a spp, a buyout of Arkaroola, or complete T/O.


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## laurie (18 April 2007)

Or another scenario kennas is they could be getting Maldon ready for a sale,off load their gold, and concentrate on Uranium & Copper JMHO 

cheers laurie


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## spooly74 (19 April 2007)

kennas said:


> Good point Laurie. I've been thinking about this myself. I don't think Maldon will pay for it. It's going to take a little while for that to ramp up. After mining begins at B4M it will take a couple of years to ramp also, so maybe a spp, a buyout of Arkaroola, or complete T/O.




Yep, is a good point an important to keep reminding ourselves that it needs to happen.

Maldon is currently about 500m into a 1900m decline, the project advanced 250m during the last quarter but encountered ground water which delayed them somewhat as it required additional ground support. If they can keep going at say 300m a quarter they will be finished Stage 1 of Maldon in just over a year and will need cash to proceed with Stage 2.

This will also be the time imo when the end of our piggy-back free carry from Heathgate will be looming.

There is no way that Maldon will fund the bigger picture but I think it`s worth hanging on to becauce if they get it to production it could certainly be a cash cow for the general and administrative expences for B4mile such as transport to site for personnel and materials, operation costs, admin costs etc.

An SPP is on the cards imo to fund both but how much and at what price is the question.

We might get more of an indication from the scoping study in a couple of weeks.

As an aside for the charties ... Could the recent price action from the end of Jan be seen to be a cup and handle formation (currently in the handle) or is the height of the handle invalid because it went higher than the opposite lip? 

Would seem to tie in nicely with upcoming ALP conference and JORC time, but I may need to take of the rose tinted glasses.

cheers


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## Sean K (19 April 2007)

spooly74 said:


> As an aside for the charties ... Could the recent price action from the end of Jan be seen to be a cup and handle formation (currently in the handle) or is the height of the handle invalid because it went higher than the opposite lip?



I hadn't even noticed that. As a general rule C&H are much better if gentle, even, U shaped and equal on both sides. the target from the cup would be the distance from the base of the cup to the lip. This may qualify, but the unevenness, and the gap up make it less valid. If valid however, a break from the lip would provide a price target of $3.40 ish. Market cap would be pretty toppy then.  

Chartschool C&H description:



> Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
> 
> Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". *The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.*
> 
> ...


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## Go Nuke (19 April 2007)

Ah, thank you Kennas for inserting the meaning of "Cup and Handle".

LOL..Its interesting where some of these terminologies originaly came from


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## Sean K (20 April 2007)

Chart review.


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## zed327 (24 April 2007)

Just heard on another forum that Mike Rann has been ramping up the beverley 4 mile deposit again. "largest U deposit in 25 years blah blah blah".

If i was a betting man I'd put my $ on thursday for the jorc.

I don't bet because I usually lose.


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## laurie (24 April 2007)

zed327 said:


> Just heard on another forum that Mike Rann has been ramping up the beverley 4 mile deposit again. "largest U deposit in 25 years blah blah blah".
> 
> If i was a betting man I'd put my $ on thursday for the jorc.
> 
> I don't bet because I usually lose.




If that's the case then if I was the ASX I would ask for a please explain  

cheers laurie


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## Out Too Soon (24 April 2007)

zed327 said:


> Just heard on another forum that Mike Rann has been ramping up the beverley 4 mile deposit again. "largest U deposit in 25 years blah blah blah".
> 
> If i was a betting man I'd put my $ on thursday for the jorc.
> 
> I don't bet because I usually lose.




IF I was a betting man I'd say Mike Ranns' favourite trusted Aunt has a bundle of AGS shares. 

(the things you can say when your anon)


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## Sean K (27 April 2007)

AGS Cup and Handle may have eventuated with the stock now pushing towards the lip of the cup, and also all time high. With the overall market down this is pretty positive IMO. See post above for possible outcome if break up from cup. Just a probability, and has failed at this before. Perhaps the Labor policy decision will give this a boost, or the long awaited Quasar JORC is in the mail. I'm not holding my breath though!


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## laurie (27 April 2007)

Yep conference that will overturn policy pushing the price up in anticipation of money coming from stocks in W.A. or QLD into S.A. don't forget AGS is in the ASX 300 so funds could also boost sp   

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (27 April 2007)

AGS all time high is $2.60 on April 4 2007 and up 12 cents today

Currently $2.52    +$0.12  +5.00%  $2.54 high today and $2.40 low today  1,047,245 shares $2,580,339  
@ 27-Apr 14:42:12


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## Go Nuke (27 April 2007)

Well i guess with all the media attention pointing out AGS and Heathgate, can you blame people for wanting to buy up in AGS?

If (and I believe most people do) the no new mines law is overturned, then knowing Mr Rann, he will waste little time plugging AGS again.

Combine all that with the AGS expected JORC etc...well lets see how high it will go.

:aliena:


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## laurie (27 April 2007)

This has to come close to $XXX next week with media talk on Uranium from the Labor conference and yes Mr Rann will be the pipe piper Monday opening will tell the mood for the rest of the week :

cheers laurie


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## UraniumLover (28 April 2007)

kariba said:


> AGS SP still has heaps in the tank IMO:
> 
> On p11/12 of AGS' latest presentation they make the statement that:
> 
> ...




tend to disagree . compare it to MTN (SA) , BMN  or even PNN (SA)  falls well short. can name a host more .. This has been hyped by Mike Rann. His grand Mother must own it  lol


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## Fab (28 April 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> tend to disagree . compare it to MTN (SA) , BMN  or even PNN (SA)  falls well short. can name a host more .. This has been hyped by Mike Rann. His grand Mother must own it  lol




to me AGS is a bit like SMM . Big potential U mining reserve and with the benefit to be able to mine them in a U friendly state.
SMM has jumped to over $6 and AGS is still around the $2.50 mark so I believe there is still some margin for AGS to get much higher.
Monday will be a good test if U mining policy is changed as expected


----------



## Halba (28 April 2007)

The "25% free  carried stake" makes this one expensive. Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%) will reap the rewards long term....I mean the more you own of the deposits the more you will go up...why bother with AGS and rann...not one piece of quality news this entire year proves my point...and its been 5 months into this year....this is because it doesn't fully own its operations...so will give no new meaningful news...what do AGS mngmt do with their time?

Uraniumlover is right...full ownership is important...every pound of uranium explored or dug out I get 100% benefit in the other stocks...whereas every pound or uranium found in AGS only a paltry 25%....and no guarantees of finding new deposits...arguably exploration value of AGS is same as MTN,BMN,ERN..theres nothing to suggest it is better exploration and deserves a premium...AGS high grade in Western zone ONLY(East zone is not HIGH grade but 0.03 average low grade)...the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!

The whole overall discovery is stated in latest presentation by Johnston at about 45,000 to 52,000t....take the median, and thats 100mil lbs...even that won't be fully JORC....so overall AGS share only 25mil lbs...arguably I wouldn't include other exploration as other companies have exploration too....so on a dollar per lb it is 650/25 = $26/lb. If it doubles from here without proving anything above 100mil lbs(i.e. not discovering any new deposits - Beverley 4 mile East drill holes don't count as they are part of the 100mil lbs)....it will be worth $52 a lb...:bad: As far as I know they won't be drilling elsewhere = only on East this year...so they really can't double from here can they? Even 25% more increase in SP, thats 26*1.25 = $32/lb...:22_yikes:...Even PDN is cheaper than AGS atm...the dollar per pound of PDN was quoted at 25-30dollar per pound...but ags is 3 years behind PDN right now..


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## zed327 (28 April 2007)

I'm pretty sure the share price will do the talking over the next few weeks.

One very important item that has been left out by those saying AGS is overvalued comparred to others is they are in partnership with Generel Atomic.

Now you don't get anymore qualified in uranium processing than this mob.

What backing and experience of getting the uranium from the ground to it's buyers do these others have.


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## nizar (28 April 2007)

Halba said:


> The "25% free  carried stake" makes this one expensive. Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%) will reap the rewards long term....I mean the more you own of the deposits the more you will go up...why bother with AGS and rann...not one piece of quality news this entire year proves my point...and its been 5 months into this year....this is because it doesn't fully own its operations...so will give no new meaningful news...what do AGS mngmt do with their time?
> 
> Uraniumlover is right...full ownership is important...every pound of uranium explored or dug out I get 100% benefit in the other stocks...whereas every pound or uranium found in AGS only a paltry 25%....and no guarantees of finding new deposits...arguably exploration value of AGS is same as MTN,BMN,ERN..theres nothing to suggest it is better exploration and deserves a premium...AGS high grade in Western zone ONLY(East zone is not HIGH grade but 0.03 average low grade)...the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!
> 
> The whole overall discovery is stated in latest presentation by Johnston at about 45,000 to 52,000t....take the median, and thats 100mil lbs...even that won't be fully JORC....so overall AGS share only 25mil lbs...arguably I wouldn't include other exploration as other companies have exploration too....so on a dollar per lb it is 650/25 = $26/lb. If it doubles from here without proving anything above 100mil lbs(i.e. not discovering any new deposits - Beverley 4 mile East drill holes don't count as they are part of the 100mil lbs)....it will be worth $52 a lb...:bad: As far as I know they won't be drilling elsewhere = only on East this year...so they really can't double from here can they? Even 25% more increase in SP, thats 26*1.25 = $32/lb...:22_yikes:...Even PDN is cheaper than AGS atm...the dollar per pound of PDN was quoted at 25-30dollar per pound...but ags is 3 years behind PDN right now..




hehe, you really hate it when share prices run for a reason that you cannot explain dont you 

Well there was a very nice candle on friday, bucked the trend with most U stocks down. I think maybe another candle on monday, then perhaps a pullback to find support at $2.50ish. That, along with reduced volume on the pullback if it happens, would be a outstanding breakout for me.

Also note MACD about the cross positive.


----------



## spooly74 (28 April 2007)

Halba said:


> AGS high grade in Western zone ONLY(East zone is not HIGH grade but 0.03 average low grade)...the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!




Halba ...please do some research.

I`ll start with this comment you made 0.03% for 4 mile East   

Read the bit in the red below ....just for starters.

ps... You still holding your 4700 shares???


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## Sean K (28 April 2007)

Halba, thanks for your contribution to the AGS thread. Or is it the MTN, BMN and ERN thread? I'm a little confused.  

Once again you provide a concerted attack on AGS with just a few holes.  



Halba said:


> The "25% free carried stake" makes this one expensive.



 There's more to it than that, surely. Wouldn't 'free carried' with an experienced uranium miner make it more valuable. Or, do you mean that it only has 25% free carried to mine and then they have to help fund the mining?



Halba said:


> Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%)



You say fully own and then proceed to put in the % ownership.  



Halba said:


> will reap the rewards long term....



Just because they own upward of 80% does not logically mean they will 'reap rewards' at all. Are they ever going to need a JV partner to get to production? 



Halba said:


> I mean the more you own of the deposits the more you will go up



It's that simple? What about size, grade, location, management, hedging, infrastructure... 



Halba said:


> why bother with AGS and rann.



AGS has an advanced project in SA, and Rann is the only Labor State Premier who is actively lobbying for uranium mining in his State. AGS will seek a mining lisence by the end of the year and Rann has already said he will give it to them. I think that's why this project is interesting.  



Halba said:


> not one piece of quality news this entire year proves my point.



 What point? You didn't make a point in relation to this and it proves nothing in itself. While I'm unsure as to what your definition of 'quality' news is, they have released several anns updating the market about their operations. They have released two anns updating the B4M project and advised that they were moving to a scoping study as soon as Quasar get the JORC to them. 



Halba said:


> Uraniumlover is right...full ownership is important..



 I disagree. No junior explorer, or even developer without uranium mining experience is likely to get their project to production without significant cash inflows, or a JV/Farm In partner. I think it's very important that the juniors get a partner with significant uranium mining experience on board to take their mines to development. 



Halba said:


> and no guarantees of finding new deposits...arguably exploration value of AGS is same as MTN,BMN,ERN..theres nothing to suggest it is better exploration and deserves a premium.



 Is this the sole reason why it is at a 'premium'? It might be a factor, but just one. There is no guarantee of finding anything 'new' in the region, but we have already compared the Arkaroola tenement to MTNs, and it is considerably larger. That's not to say it's got anything else on it, but it must be a consideration.



Halba said:


> the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!



How do you know this? ERN have some historical drill holes and BMN have only completed drilling on 25% of their deposit haven't they? Also, large tonnage is not all that counts. Higher grade is much better, which B4M western zone is compared to your BMN and ERN. You should note that the higher the grade, the less tonnage is required to be mined for the same result.



Halba said:


> arguably I wouldn't include other exploration as other companies have exploration too.



 So, you value a company entirely on just one of its projects? A company's market cap is made up of more than just one of it's projects. You continue to do this and you will continue to get a flawed valuation of a company and use this to compare it against another flawed valuation. I'm surprised you did not dig up your SMM valuation based soley on Valhalla and use that compare it to MTN or BMN. 

Overall Halba, I agree, AGS seems expensive compared to some of the other advanced explorers _on the surface of it_. I do think we need to be comparing apples with apples however, and comparing AGS with anything else is fraught with problems of 'peer' comparison. The companys you are using to compare AGS to are all very very different. While we do need to benchmark to be able to make comparisons of value, more detail is required here I feel.


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## laurie (28 April 2007)

Halba

Come Monday I will be handing in my resignation due to the 25% stake that I have shares in,you see I got on at .14cents you do the maths  : 

cheers laurie


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## zed327 (28 April 2007)

Halba you should read Kennas posts more carefully because he does state that AGS are fully priced compared to it's peers.

You on the other hand have not had one post that is all positive to AGS.

All your posts are ramping your other stocks at AGS's expense.

Time to give it a rest.


----------



## nizar (28 April 2007)

And after writing a lengthly post tearing Halba's argument to shreds, Kennas's conclusion is.........



kennas said:


> Overall Halba, I agree,




LOL!


----------



## spooly74 (28 April 2007)

Halba said:


> The "25% free  carried stake" makes this one expensive. Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%) will reap the rewards long term.....





How do you know that MTN, BMN, ERN will reap the rewards long term???
I`ll just use MTN as an example because we know a bit about their plans.

MTN have had their resource known for the last 40 years and I suspect they have tagged in a historical CAPEX too.

MTN reckon about 100 - 200 mill ........my ar$e

They need a milling facility to get through 4500 tonnes of orebody a DAY!

They need a purpose built tailings facility which requires heavy engineering.

They need the underground mine working to full capacity to meed the production targets.

They will have substantial infrastructure costs because of the location in the Flinders ranges.

They also need power and more importantly a water supply for the life of mine (32 years) plus all the diesel suppllied.

They even need to take it all down when they are finished and return the land to it`s original state.

MTN might not be fully finished in the Flinders Ranges till the year 2045.

How does that compare to other Uranium companies? 

Is any of this info factored into your peer evaluations for the long term?


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## Spineli (28 April 2007)

Courtesy: www.smh.com.au

*ALP dumps mine policy*
Email Print Normal font Large font April 28, 2007 - 8:02PM

Advertisement
AdvertisementKevin Rudd has narrowly managed to convince Labor to cast aside a 25 year policy banning new uranium mines.

After nearly two hours of debate, delegates at the Labor national conference in Sydney today backed their leader's proposal to expand uranium mining but only after an alternate plan to delay the decision was defeated by the narrowest of margins.

The issue - cast as a test of Mr Rudd's leadership and Labor's fitness for government - divided the opposition front bench and sparked a passionate debate on the conference floor.

Deputy Senate leader Stephen Conroy, a member of Mr Rudd's leadership team, voted against the uranium expansion plan, backing the alternative put forward by opposition frontbenchers Anthony Albanese and Peter Garrett.

Senator Conroy later refused to discuss his decision.

Mr Albanese and Mr Garrett had wanted any decision on new mines deferred until stricter safeguards were put in place to deal with nuclear non-proliferation and associated radioactive waste.

Their proposal was defeated by a slim 190 to 205 - a margin much closer than had been anticipated.

However, they won backing for a proposal banning uranium mining in national parks and world heritage areas.

As Labor grappled with its difficult policy dilemma, Prime Minister John Howard flagged the government's intention to remove all unnecessary restrictions on mining, processing and exporting uranium, opening the way for domestic nuclear power generation.

Mr Rudd derided Mr Howard's plan, calling it the "Montgomery Burns solution", referring to the maniacal nuclear reactor boss in the cartoon series The Simpsons.

He told the conference that the change in Labor policy was needed because not all countries were blessed with the energy alternatives enjoyed by Australia.

"The challenge is as we debate this amendment to recognise the reality that around the world there are so many economies who do not have and possess the rich range of energy options which we in this country have at our disposal," Mr Rudd said.

"We have been supplying uranium to them for many years and this amendment seeks to recognise that reality into the years ahead."

But Mr Albanese told delegates that it wasn't a risk worth taking.

"If you're cautious about further involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle, vote for my amendment," he said.

"If you think that it's pretty arrogant to suggest that we know what will happen to geology, climate, and importantly, political changes over the next 240,000 years, think there might be a doubt about it - vote for my amendment.

"If you think it actually matters that every person in this room knows that ALP members at the rank-and-file level support my amendment, then vote for it. I think it does matter.

"Let's put out a consistently clear position that says we don't want any further involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle. Vote for my amendment."

Mr Garrett, who campaigned for nuclear disarmament when he was the frontman of Midnight Oil, promised he still had the anti-nuclear fire in his belly.

"I've long been opposed to uranium mining. I'm unapologetic about it. In fact I'm proud of it," he said.

But rising Labor star and union boss Bill Shorten, who has won preselection for the next election, said that Labor values weren't worth much if the party wasn't in power.

"Not voting for change will undermine us at the next election," he said.

"For me, you can have all the Labor values in the world but they're not much good if you're in opposition. Winning is important to changing all of the issues."

He made it clear the party was risking government if it went against Mr Rudd.

"If you think that rolling the leader is a great idea then go ahead and vote for the Albanese-Garrett amendment," Mr Shorten said.

Mr Albanese later said that he was not disappointed by the result because it was so close.

"I think it's pretty hard to be disappointed with the vote when we were in a minority by only eight votes," he said.

Two protesters were kicked out after they pulled out a flag and began shouting slogans at Mr Rudd as he left the conference floor following the vote.

Earlier in the day, the party endorsed Rudd's new industrial relations policy without debate.

The new policy, which bans strike action without a secret ballot of workers and reinstates unfair dismissal protection for some workers, had been touted as a test of Mr Rudd's leadership.

But union officials agreed not to attempt to amend the policy after several hours of discussion on the edges of the conference.

Labor workplace relations spokeswoman Julia Gillard thanked delegates for their support and paid tribute to her shadow parliamentary secretary Brendan O'Connor for his work in negotiating the agreement.

"This chapter wouldn't be with you today if it wasn't for his hard work," she said.

Under the policy, fathers will be guaranteed the right to take up to 12 months unpaid parental leave as part of a new employment safety net covering all Australian workers.

Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd and industrial relations spokeswoman Julia Gillard released a policy document titled Forward with Fairness: Labor's Plan for Fairer and more Productive Australian Workplaces, which provided further details on the safety net workers would have under a Labor government.

"A Rudd Labor government will guarantee a safety net of decent, relevant and enforceable minimum wages and conditions for working Australians," the policy says.

It promises 10 legislated national employment standards, which will apply to all workers.

"Labor's new national employment standards will contain entitlements for all employees regardless of their industry or occupation," the policy says.

"These new standards cannot be removed or replaced."

The standards include separate periods of 12 months unpaid parental leave for both parents following the birth of a child.

"Labor recognises that many families want to have a parent provide all or most of the care for a child during the first two years of the child's life," the policy says.

Labor would also guarantee workers eight national public holidays, as well as prescribed state or local public holidays such as Labour Day and Melbourne Cup Day.

The minimum conditions will include mandated redundancy pay for workers in a job for more than a year and minimum periods of notice if they are sacked.

The second phase of the safety net relates to further conditions that can be guaranteed in workers' awards.

"Labor believes that awards are an important safety net and an effective floor for collective bargaining. Collective agreements will be able to override award entitlements provided the agreement means employees are genuinely better off," the policy says.

"Under Labor, awards may build on and also provide industry detail on Labor's legislated minimum standards.

"Labor's new awards may only contain a further 10 minimum employment standards."

These can include standards on minimum wages, overtime and penalty rates, allowances and superannuation.

AAP


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## zed327 (28 April 2007)

Halba you should carefully read this part of the above Labour uranium mining changes.

"However, they won backing for a proposal banning uranium mining in national parks and world heritage areas".

AGS isn't in national parks and world heritage areas.

MTN is.


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## zed327 (28 April 2007)

My post from the 2nd of april 2007:



			
				zed327 said:
			
		

> MTN is in a protected reserve and have got one hell of a job to get past all the relevent do gooders to be able to mine. All the uranium that MTN have ain't worth a cracker if they are not allowed to get it out of the ground where as AGS are already half way there with all this political backing. AGS will be the first new u mine to start up,no buts about it.


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## Pommiegranite (29 April 2007)

For the fundametalists out there...

AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.

A rough calc shows that AGS has a market cap of $600,000,000, which seems pretty high for a company which hasn't started mining Uranium yet.
Would anyone agree with me that a lot is priced in.

Does anyone have a list of market caps of U explorers/miners in comparison?

How much more upside do you all think is there and where will this come from?

Thanks 
PG


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## Sean K (29 April 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> For the fundametalists out there...
> 
> AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.
> 
> ...



Pommi, see the South Australian Uranium Explorers thread. There is a doc attached that has all the SA explorers and their current market cap.


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## laurie (29 April 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> For the fundametalists out there...
> 
> AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.
> 
> ...




So what do you think it should be worth  does it really matter at the end of the day its the market that determines what a company is worth  

cheers laurie


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## Pommiegranite (29 April 2007)

laurie said:


> So what do you think it should be worth  does it really matter at the end of the day its the market that determines what a company is worth
> 
> cheers laurie





Sorry..I don't agree.....WE are the market...and feeding off each others bullishness as opposed to fundamentals will result in a reality check one day.

Its okay for a little buying in for a short period and bailing out....but some of us will be left holding the baby on judgement day.

AGS reeks of a bubble brewing...a definite risky play in the long term... 

Having said that...I hold....and will continue to do so...but will be watching this stock like an eagle....and intend on selling some at various points over the next 6 months to recoup my outlay.


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## Pommiegranite (29 April 2007)

laurie said:


> So what do you think it should be worth  does it really matter at the end of the day its the market that determines what a company is worth
> 
> cheers laurie




ps..well done on buying in at 14c................................................... 

When are you bailing? Surely you're not gonna hold for 20 years?


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## james99 (29 April 2007)

Pommiegranite

http://www.summitresources.com.au/pdf/reports/independent/FarEastReportOct06.pdf

It provides a brief analysis. However, it is from October 2006. Since then things have changed, eg share prices (making some poor value), and some companies have significantly increased their tenements and that is not reflected in the analysis nor public announcments (making them better value despite in some cases signficiant share increases). 

Others have SA and NT tenements and will now have some certainty under Howard or Labour.


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## spooly74 (29 April 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> AGS reeks of a bubble brewing...a definite risky play in the long term...
> 
> Having said that...I hold....and will continue to do so...but will be watching this stock like an eagle....and intend on selling some at various points over the next 6 months to recoup my outlay.




With 8 months left in the year including 14 million dollars worth of results, Jorc for high grade part (or maybe the whole) of Western area of B4mile, scoping study to begin and an application for mining lease in the mail to media Mike, you should have plenty of buyers to recoup your outlay.

All the best


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## laurie (29 April 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> ps..well done on buying in at 14c...................................................
> 
> When are you bailing? Surely you're not gonna hold for 20 years?




No... you're right Pommiegranite but if I sell its Mr Costello that will be smiling not me,having said that come 1st July I may off load a few to take profits to top up other holdings and to carry forward the CGT into next financial year also I may have to consider a spp if mining goes ahead and all of this can be pushed aside if a T/O happens and thanks for your kind words on my buy in  

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (30 April 2007)

ASX ann today

AGS 9:33 AM  Four Mile Prospect Update 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070430/pdf/3125l3kx2c071z.pdf

FOUR MILE URANIUM PROSPECT UPDATE
Highlights

 The mineral resource estimate for the drilled out portion of Four Mile West is having final checks completed before being released.

 High grade uranium intersections continue from Four Mile West, including:
9.1 metres grading 1.84% pU3O8

 High grade uranium intersections continue from Four Mile East, including:
2.0 metres grading 1.37% pU3O8

(pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade as estimated from PFN log and is provisional upon the application of calibration correction factors)


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## bigdog (30 April 2007)

The market liked todays ANN with SP high of $2.82 up 27 cents

AGS   $2.82    +$0.27  +10.59%  high $2.82 and low $2.72  
455,798 share $1,270,941  30-Apr 10:02:43


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## Go Nuke (30 April 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> For the fundametalists out there...
> 
> AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.
> 
> ...




In saying this. are you saying that its not possible for AGS's shares to really gain much higher than $2-$3??

Ive heard a few people mention AGS market cap.
But I get the impression that if its cap is getting too high..then why am i bothering to hold AGS for much longer?
Whats the alternative for improving the share price?

Share buy back?
More projects?
Production?

Very "convenient" of AGS to release that report today
I like it


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## zed327 (30 April 2007)

Kennas i really respect your reading of charts and i haven't come across a double gap up before.
If you could give me your thoughts on this please.


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## Sean K (30 April 2007)

zed327 said:


> Kennas i really respect your reading of charts and i haven't come across a double gap up before.
> If you could give me your thoughts on this please.



Any gap up is bullish in a general upward trend, so this may be more so. Chart wise it looks great! However, I'm very concerned about the valuation possibly being extended further. Market cap's possibly too high for the potential resource. Maybe there's something about this that is driving it higher we haven't considered. Perhaps takeover premium is well factored in? Perhaps it's been accululated by some instos on behalf of someone and because there's not many sellers the price is being pushed higher and higher. Not sure.


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## zed327 (30 April 2007)

Thanks for your assessment Kennas it's greatly appreciated.

I'll be using stop a loss just in case of a correction.

I've got big hopes for AGS.


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## Pommiegranite (30 April 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> In saying this. are you saying that its not possible for AGS's shares to really gain much higher than $2-$3??
> 
> Ive heard a few people mention AGS market cap.
> But I get the impression that if its cap is getting too high..then why am i bothering to hold AGS for much longer?
> ...





Go Nuke,

As Kennas has also mentioned, there is something questionable about the market cap.

One question that keeps on cropping up in my mind is "How many other companies are there out there, with this size marketcap,  that have no end product"?

Something just doesn't add up.

As for the SP going higher...it can go 10 times higher if investing mania sets in. 

Okay..I confess..i know nothing about mining...I don't know my E/PBs from my JORCS or PPMs 

.....but what I do know is that investing in a lot of these stocks has moved away from the need for this analysis and more towards betting on how long this bull run will last.

It is especially wise to choose stocks based on a company's accounts AS WELL as mining potential.

Seriously considering stop losses on some of my holdings...AGS being one.

PG


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## laurie (30 April 2007)

Stop losses can hurt you especially with one like AGS  

cheers laurie


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## bigdog (4 May 2007)

AGS has risen over the past nine days

Date------ Close 	Volume
03-May-07	 2.78 	753,581
02-May-07	 2.71 	946,083
01-May-07	 2.66 	1,653,429
30-Apr-07	 2.79 	2,442,958
27-Apr-07	 2.55 	2,081,386
26-Apr-07	 2.40 	880,308
24-Apr-07	 2.37 	619,341
23-Apr-07	 2.35 	629,993

Intersuisse recommends Buy Thursday May 3

AGS Alliance Resources -Buy for ongoing re-rating as uranium resources grow
http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Note Thursday.pdf

Event
 Further impressive uranium results received from drilling at the Four Mile
prospect of the Arkaroola project

 Latest drilling results at the Four Mile West include 9.1m grading 1.84%
U3O8

 Mineralisation at the Four Mile West prospect is still open to northwest

 Further drilling results at the Four Mile East include 2.0m grading 1.37%
U3O8

 Long-awaited initial resource statement being finalised


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## Go Nuke (4 May 2007)

Wow, thanks for posting that link Bigdog!

I found this part interesting...

"_Our very preliminary estimate of the economic significance of the total potential resource at the 4 Mile Prospect indicates, they could have a Net Present Value to AGS of the order of $3.20-$4.40_

And some people here are worried about what the market cap is like NOW 

With such high grade U and "Open in many directions particularly to the North", combined with the ALP now turning power over to the staes in reguards to Uranium mining...I believe AGS may be one of the first to be up and running.

We all know how much Mr Rann like them..lol


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## Sean K (7 May 2007)

Breaking all time high, along with the rest of the ASX I suppose.  

Cracking $700m market cap.  

I'm still holding on but considering locking in some more profits. Possibly cash some in if it drops through support at $2.50 for a start. Maybe lift that up to $2.65 ish, if $2.75 becomes support. 

Or, just hold on till it hits $10.   LOL. 

It's going to need a damn good JORC for this valuation to be worthy. Can't imagine it really, but it just keeps on going up.


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## laurie (7 May 2007)

Looking good hit a high today of $2.83 good volume extremely happy if they hit $3 by Friday if no JORC is released so one assume the price of Uranium is pushing this up @ $120US or $146AUS  

cheers laurie


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## laurie (7 May 2007)

kennas said:


> It's going to need a damn good JORC for this valuation to be worthy. Can't imagine it really, but it just keeps on going up.




Well you better sell now kennas because the JORC is only for the Western Zone you have to wait tell the end of the year or early next for the full estimate

cheers laurie


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## Broadside (7 May 2007)

kennas said:


> Breaking all time high, along with the rest of the ASX I suppose.
> 
> Cracking $700m market cap.
> 
> ...




kennas kennas kennas, the JORC in the works is scratching the surface of the resource, if everyone in AGS has the same attitude as you then when the JORC is released the price action will be nasty.    I won't be topping up, have too much exposure already, but I certainly won't be selling if there is such a knee jerk reaction.  $14m on drilling this year that should add plenty of U to the first JORC.


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## Ang (7 May 2007)

Short term target $3.22 based on depth of daily darvas box at a break of $2.88. I also see a Saucer formation as in 1997 there was a $2.85 close and so was todays. The depth of the saucer gets you a medium term target of $5.65 if it breaks $2.90. Is this the next Palidin???
Kind regards
Ang


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## Ang (7 May 2007)

And here is the amazing saucer.
  
kind reg ang


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## laurie (8 May 2007)

Thought I never see another Paladin in the making I may well be wrong but it looks like its following the same path time will tell JMHO  

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (8 May 2007)

I actually didn't know what to expect from this estimate, but I might have been hoping for over 40m lbs initially. This is 1km square, while the overall deposit is about 5km square, to various grades. Thoughts?


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## Sean K (8 May 2007)

kennas said:


> I actually didn't know what to expect from this estimate, but I might have been hoping for over 40m lbs initially. This is 1km square, while the overall deposit is about 5km square, to various grades. Thoughts?



Looks like Mr Market's going to smash it. Some decent sells down the ask depth. All you punters out there saying this is 'the next PDN' will be buying up, I'm sure. Having made that quip, it might actually be sold off too much and it could be an opportunity. Well, at least there's some numbers there now and everyone can make a more 'informed' judgement about what AGS's 25% stake will be worth. Even if the deposit goes out to 5 x the 30m lbs, that's 150m total, and about 35m lbs to AGS. $700m cap?


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## bigdog (8 May 2007)

The market did not like todays announcement for the start of trading down 63 cents

Code Last Move -% Move Buy Sell Open --High Low Volume Value Last Traded 
AGS  2.22 -0.630  -22.11%  2.15 2.16 2.30 2.30 2.13 845,860 1,923,621 08-May 10:01:07 AM


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## stuart.mcclure (8 May 2007)

No the market did not like this announcement at all. I think this represents an excellent buying opportunity. 

Dow Jones news wise announced: with 248 milion shares on issue, this suggests ags share of the resouce worth now at most a gross of A$3.63/share. 

With the stock currently trading at $2.34 surely this is an excellent opportunity. 

Any comments?


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## laurie (8 May 2007)

These opportunities come only once now the decision is to buy or sell ?                            

cheers laurie


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## Go Nuke (8 May 2007)

WOW 
As of right now..its just dropped 20%!

Thats still not making me sell...though Mr Market certainly has alot to say about AGS!
Wow..20%!! 

I guess some people MUST have been expecting alot more.


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## dj_420 (8 May 2007)

with a market cap of 700 million and only 25% of resource i think market was expecting a 50 000 tonne resource.


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## laurie (8 May 2007)

dj_420 said:


> with a market cap of 700 million and only 25% of resource i think market was expecting a 50 000 tonne resource.




Spot on dj_420 that was close to my estimate ah well still in for the long haul tomorrow is another day that's why it's important to spread your portfolio across all sectors and companies

cheers laurie


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## sharetrader (8 May 2007)

Remember this is only 1/5th of Four Mile West, still have 4km² of drilling and results for the west alone, plus the east.

I'm not budging.


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## laurie (8 May 2007)

I did notice that AGS did not have a trading halt nor the release marked as price sensitive did anyone here find that strange given the response the market gave the announcement  

cheers laurie


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## Go Nuke (8 May 2007)

Still looks good to me!

I guess the MACD is getting up there a bit as was the SS {which ive not displayed..oops}
I guess todays action will fix alot of that


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## Ang (8 May 2007)

Well there goes the Daily and weekly darvas boxes by the low of $2.13, Mr Darvas would have been out of this stock today, however it does not stop the saucer I put up last night. This stock will need to go beyond the $2.95 for it to start challenging the PDN type sinario. I would say forget the announcement today as you have all said it was poitive and it doesn't cover all their tenamnets and the Premier of SA has also made major statements that they hold the largest uranium tenamnet in the State. I would say there the down ward trend today was what they didn't say. Are they getting ready for a share issue to pay for the massive exploration they will need to do to get it out of the ground?? I do not know the answer to this question, however I feel that was the real reason for the down turn and if they rais money willl the issue price be about $2.30, where it oppened today??.
Like some thoughts on this. I am still in as I still believe it will be a strong player in the medium to long term, the question I have is how they structure the IPO if they go that way. Plus I puled my stop out this morning at $2.50 when it oppened at $2.30, the price I originally bought it at.
Kind regards
Ang


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## laurie (8 May 2007)

> Are they getting ready for a share issue to pay for the massive exploration they will need to do to get it out of the ground?? I do not know the answer to this question,




Ang
AGS are free carried until a decision to mine is made and Quasar are forking out $14m for further exploration so no need for a spp the only time this will happen if a decision to mine is made and AGS will be up for 25% of production cost and buildings hopefully Maldon may be in production but if they do a spp it will not dilute the holding that much

cheers laurie


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## Ang (8 May 2007)

laurie said:


> Ang
> AGS are free carried until a decision to mine is made and Quasar are forking out $14m for further exploration so no need for a spp the only time this will happen if a decision to mine is made and AGS will be up for 25% of production cost and buildings hopefully Maldon may be in production but if they do a spp it will not dilute the holding that much
> 
> cheers laurie




Thanks for that insite, so is there some bad news coming? or is it that the market were disappointed in the findings.
Kind regards
Ang


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## Ang (8 May 2007)

I have just done a scan on all the uranium stocks today and most of the Uranium stocks are down, SMM, WMT, PDN, and UNX only to name a few. Did the price of Uranium fall overnight or was there some bad news that was announced regarding Uranium. Has anyone got any details regarding this??
Kind reg
ang


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## dj_420 (8 May 2007)

just some consolidation in the sector AGS got punished and hence i think thats why a lot of SA explorers got hit MTN, CUY, AGS, TOE.


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## bigdog (9 May 2007)

Todays Age reported:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/alliance-uranium-milestone/2007/05/08/1178390303409.html

Alliance uranium milestone
Barry Fitzgerald
May 9, 2007

FOUR Mile might be the best uranium discovery in more than 20 years but initial confirmation that it's something special did nothing for the share price of Alliance Resources, the locally listed 25 per cent partner with US group Heathgate in the outback South Australia discovery.

The long-awaited initial resource estimate of 15,000 tonnes of contained uranium oxide has an in-the-ground value at present uranium prices of more than $4.4 billion and according to the partners, it lays the foundations for Four Mile's eventual development.

But the failure, initially at least, by Alliance to convince the market that the initial resources estimate was exactly that, forced a sell-off in Alliance shares. The stock closed 51 ¢, or 18 per cent, lower at $2.34. Alliance was a 24 ¢ stock in June last year. Its run since was based on expectations that Four Mile would eventually shape up as a 50,000 tonne-plus uranium find.

While there was nothing in yesterday's announcement to discourage those expectations, traders in the stock thought it was time to take some profits ahead of the much bigger resource being confirmed.

Alliance said that it was "important to emphasise that the area of approximately one square kilometre covered by the resource statement was within a much bigger area of more than five sq kms of potential mineralisation" which had been demonstrated by broad-spaced drilling.

"This highlights the potential for the Four Mile project to continue to develop as one of the most significant uranium discoveries in recent exploration history in Australia," the company said.

Alliance said that the $4.4 billion in-ground value of initial resources estimate for Four Mile highlighted its significance as the "most substantive uranium discovery in Australia since 1985 (which was Olympic Dam, now 1.7 million tonnes)."

The initial resource estimate covers just a western portion of the Four Mile discovery, so named because it is less than eight kilometres west of Heathgate's in-situ leach Beverley uranium mine.

http://uxc.com/review/uxc_prices.aspx


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## Rob_ee (9 May 2007)

laurie said:


> These opportunities come only once now the decision is to buy or sell ?
> 
> cheers laurie




Probably SELL ?

As a matter of interest this came up on MS last night as a "Spectacular Fall" .. Seeing its down another 20% today how do holders cope I wonder ??

Rob


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## Punter (9 May 2007)

Rob_ee said:


> Probably SELL ?
> 
> As a matter of interest this came up on MS last night as a "Spectacular Fall" .. Seeing its down another 20% today how do holders cope I wonder ??
> 
> Rob




I'm still in this stock. Probably oversold right now isn't it. Probably it will get 100 mil lbs, or 25 mil lbs to AGS.


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## Morgan (9 May 2007)

This isn't pretty. Everyone rushing for the exists now despite the positive write ups in the newspapers.
Think I will be out if this is going to finish on a low for the day before too much blood gets spilt


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## doyoureallycare (9 May 2007)

Wow, if AGS is oversold then DYL is undervalued just going on past resource estimates. DYL say they already have a old known resource of 18,000T U308 just in Namibia alone.

I think AGS is overvauled for that reason.


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## Pommiegranite (9 May 2007)

doyoureallycare said:


> Wow, if AGS is oversold then DYL is undervalued just going on past resource estimates. DYL say they already have a old known resource of 18,000T U308 just in Namibia alone.
> 
> I think AGS is overvauled for that reason.




Well...I'm in again at $2 after having previously sold at $2.80.

IMHO AGS will probably fall further...but not by much. Too much panic sellling.

In a previous post, I thought AGS was overvalued when it was heading towards $3..but at this price...I reckon its worth a small punt.


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## Punter (9 May 2007)

Pommiegranite said:


> Well...I'm in again at $2 after having previously sold at $2.80.
> 
> IMHO AGS will probably fall further...but not by much. Too much panic sellling.
> 
> In a previous post, I thought AGS was overvalued when it was heading towards $3..but at this price...I reckon its worth a small punt.




It's gone from overvalued to par value at current prices. I concur with your analysis here. It's just about right.


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## GreatPig (9 May 2007)

Nice to see a bit of recovery at least from the $1.925 low of earlier today. At least it's now back above my purchase price (never mind the 38% odd profit I was sitting on a couple of days ago!).

Another of those "why does this always happen to me" scenarios , which goes well with the back strain I've been suffering for the last few days (which is also a periodic, but fortunately infrequent, occurrence).

Nothing like being kicked while you're down... 

Cheers,
GP


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## spooly74 (9 May 2007)

The maiden resource was dissappointing, and the sp has been quite rightly belted.

I`d like to know the thinking behind using a cut-off of half a metre at 500ppm.
Why would you not take full advantage of the current spot price and make use of the lower grade stuff (at least inferred anyway)
It`s not like ISL is going to decide to leave it behind.
This is the negative side to not controlling the deposit imo.

On a positive note the results from the March Quarter had some great hits (considering the small average width of 2.2m for current estimate)

9.1m @ 18400ppm
3.5m @  9700ppm
2.8m @  8600ppm
8.6m @  8800ppm
and in the EAST
2m @ 13700ppm

They were released 10 days ago while the JORC was having final checks so they are not included.

Lets hope the major step out drill program they are on about does just that.
They drilled about 60 holes last quarter (not all results in) so lets see if they can increase this, it would be an encouraging sign.

Scoping study to be released about the start of JULY (not holding my breath) and will give an indication on production targets.

I`d also like to see if the top 20 shareholders decide to top up again as they did a couple of months back....I`m hoping some of them are responsible for the big volume.

For the charties ..... what the hell happened to that Cup n Handle   
I`ve included a chart to make me feel better but could anyone post a chart as to what fib levels are in play at the moment?

cheers


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## Go Nuke (9 May 2007)

{{For the charties ..... what the hell happened to that Cup n Handle   
I`ve included a chart to make me feel better but could anyone post a chart as to what fib levels are in play at the moment?}}


Um..the handle broke off by the looks!

Dont worry greatPig...I bought at $2.13 back in Janish...then it took a dive. I was thinking the same thing as you are now..but the sp came back to life...until the last couple of days at least

Time will tell.
Im backing the S.A government!
They might come to the aid of AGS,s floundering share price:>


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## GreatPig (9 May 2007)

This can be seen in Spooly's chart, but I think is clearer here. Interesting where it bottomed out today. Looks like we might now be back "on trend".

Mind you, a three-point landing with the undercarriage down would have been better than just having the wings fall off...

Cheers,
GP


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## spooly74 (23 May 2007)

A very positive last half an hour for Alliance today.
Closed in auction slightly higher than recent short term resistance.

I`ve included a chart of what seems like an ascending triangle/wedge  MACD looks like it could turn too.
If, and I stress if it was to break out of this small pattern, would the target be about 2.50? ...cheers in advance.

Scoping study expected in 5 weeks and some more results from the step out program would be nice.
Overall I think its held up very well considering the pasting it took.


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## Sean K (24 May 2007)

Well, in the end $2.25 ish proved support with plenty of volitility around that figure. Has settled down quite considerably now and looks to be even heading back up. I had anticipated consolidation more around the $1.85 ish level, which it certainly looked to be going to occur. For a few hours.  

Good ann out with more very high grades in the East deposit. Shame the thicknesses aren't a bit better, but it's that type of deposit I suppose. 

Some potential upside still to come potentially with B4M, and that is the areas that are as yet untested around both East and West, seen on the map below. 

Market obviously still not crazy with it. Was up after this ann, and retreated.

(not holding)


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## arminius (24 May 2007)

could someone out there give me a straight up answer.
is there enough U in the ground to warrant a mine, and will further measurements simply be a bonus, or is the viability of the mine dependent on further discoveries?
ive had this since .30cents and am going to let it play out. yet there seems to be a lot of negativity...or are these people just trying to rip everyone else off?


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## Ang (24 May 2007)

I don't know how much U they have, however my Graph attached is showing a Penant Down meaning it may be heading for lower lows. Kennas has it as at $2.50 target, I have it at least 40 cents lower than where it is now, $1.46.
kind regards
ang


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## Sean K (24 May 2007)

arminius said:


> could someone out there give me a straight up answer.
> is there enough U in the ground to warrant a mine, and will further measurements simply be a bonus, or is the viability of the mine dependent on further discoveries?
> ive had this since .30cents and am going to let it play out. yet there seems to be a lot of negativity...or are these people just trying to rip everyone else off?



There is absolutely no doubt that this will be one of the next U mines in Australia. Possibly the next. The question more relevant is 'how much is the Arkaroola tenament worth to AGS?' That is, as yet, unknown, and speculative to a large degree. General guestimate is that B4M will have around 120m lbs U in it and AGS has 25%. So approximately 30m lbs U, maybe. However, the tenament is massive, and prospective for IOCGU deposits elsewhere. Who knows what is there? Please read through the thread to get the details. But to answer the basic question, 'will this be a mine?' IMO, without doubt. 

(not holding)


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## Sean K (24 May 2007)

Ang said:


> I don't know how much U they have, however my Graph attached is showing a Penant Down meaning it may be heading for lower lows. Kennas has it as at $2.50 target, I have it at least 40 cents lower than where it is now, $1.46.
> kind regards
> ang



Ang, I haven't set any target here. All I can see is that it's found support and looks like it might head back up. Via TA I could not say to where. Both FA and TA is moot at this stage until there is a final JORC, or a better TA set up.


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## Broadside (24 May 2007)

kennas said:


> There is absolutely no doubt that this will be one of the next U mines in Australia. Possibly the next. The question more relevant is 'how much is the Arkaroola tenament worth to AGS?' That is, as yet, unknown, and speculative to a large degree. General guestimate is that B4M will have around 120m lbs U in it and AGS has 25%. So approximately 30m lbs U, maybe. However, the tenament is massive, and prospective for IOCGU deposits elsewhere. Who knows what is there? Please read through the thread to get the details. But to answer the basic question, 'will this be a mine?' IMO, without doubt.
> 
> (not holding)




I fully concur with kennas' view.  They have Uranium, it is high grade and will be economic to mine.  The real question is how much Uranium they will have when the resource is fully measured.  But yes, it will be mined, and in my opinion will be one of the first new mines in Australia, meaning it will be able to exploit the high U prices before the supply-demand dynamics inevitably change in a few years.

(holding)


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## bigdog (25 May 2007)

Minebox reported today:
http://www.minebox.com/story.asp?articleId=9493

High-grade uranium results for Alliance

Uranium, gold and copper group Alliance Resources has further reinforced the scale, high grade and resource growth potential of the Four Mile uranium discovery in South Australia, yesterday announcing further significant high-grade uranium results from the Four Mile East deposit, following drilling completed during April.

The Four Mile East deposit is currently the focus of an intensive exploration program, with four drilling rigs operating to test the limits of this extensive zone of uranium mineralisation and lay the foundations for an initial resource estimate during 2007.

The Four Mile East deposit is part of an extensive area of potential mineralisation covering some 5sqkm. 

Earlier this month, Alliance announced an initial resource estimate for the Four Mile West deposit of 3.9 million tonnes at 0.37% U3O8 (15,000 tonnes or 32 million pounds of contained U3O8), demonstrating the potential for the Four Mile deposit to underpin a significant new Australian uranium mine development.

The Four Mile discovery, which is located 8km west of the in situ leach Beverley Uranium Mine in South Australia, is part of Alliance’s Arkaroola Joint Venture with Quasar Resources. Alliance holds a free-carried 25 percent interest in this joint venture, with Quasar holding 75 percent.

Alliance said that high-grade results from the recent drilling included 4.9m grading 0.794% eU3O8, 2.1m grading 0.699% eU3O8 and 1.6m grading 0.888% pU3O8. 

Alliance’s Managing Director, Steve Johnston said a total of 27 holes for 6,166m were completed at Four Mile East during April, with drilling focused along two east-west lines across the main body of mineralisation. The holes were spaced 100m apart along each section with 12 holes intersecting mineralisation.

“The aim of the current program is to define the extent of the mineralisation, with two east-west oriented drill traverses almost complete,” Mr Johnston said. “The recent drilling shows that the higher-grade mineralisation appears to favour a north-east orientation associated with the best developed host sands.”

“Significantly, the aerial extent of the mineralisation is yet to be closed off and the previously intersected high-grade zones in the west near the creek remain to be drilled out,” he said.

“These latest results continue to highlight the potential for the Four Mile Project to continue to develop as one of the most significant uranium discoveries in recent exploration history in Australia.”

- 25 May 2007


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## Ang (25 May 2007)

I don't now much about the fundemntals, however there now has been two trigers, the penant down yesturday and now today the trend chennel Deviation Down. This was in an upward trend as shown in red on the attached graph and turned black today, a start of a new trend downwards.
Could be a placement coming or more disappointing drill results.
kind reg
ang


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## laurie (25 May 2007)

Ang said:


> I don't now much about the fundemntals, however there now has been two trigers, the penant down yesturday and now today the trend chennel Deviation Down. This was in an upward trend as shown in red on the attached graph and turned black today, a start of a new trend downwards.
> Could be a placement coming or more disappointing drill results.
> kind reg
> ang




Your making the same mistake as many others you are valuing AGS sp based on Uranium they have Maldon with their gold project in Vic and Copper/Gold at M2 in S.A. etc 

cheers laurie


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## danc (27 May 2007)

And WHAT dissapointing drill results were they???, did i miss some thing????Funny how we all see diffrent things on charts. i see the major low on a spiked bottom rite on .618 of the range and big big vol over two days, i now see another spiked low on .618 retracement once again with very low vol, could we be seeing a higher low??? all this on the next probable aust ux3 miner.with plenty more results to come, any how lets see what the week brings.What i also see is a normal basing patten after a blow off into a low any how we will see.Oh have just noticed if it by chance moves up from here i also see a probable hier double btm and both these btms sit on the gap up there by closing the gap, billy mclaren would if it moves up from here see this as a very strong basing patten , if it moves up ofcourse.


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## spooly74 (7 June 2007)

This looks really sick at the moment.

Two bad announcements in a row I guess 

Anybody still holding or dare I say looking for an entry soon?


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## Broadside (7 June 2007)

spooly74 said:


> This looks really sick at the moment.
> 
> Two bad announcements in a row I guess
> 
> Anybody still holding or dare I say looking for an entry soon?




I hold half, don't want to crystallise any more gains, in at average 35c and sold half upon JORC announcement at $2.28.  If it goes down another 20c or so I might buy some back, still like it very much in the medium term but sentiment is against it in the short term, no question.  I still think it will be up in a couple of years once they increase the resource and have a timetable to mine.


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## Ang (7 June 2007)

can't believe what I am reading a stock that s going down volume OBV looking sick and there is no indication that this is going up soon, especially looking at my graph as I attached above I wouldn't be entering until I see a higher low. It is now making lower lows. Don't get me wrong I have a very small parce 1400 and loosing $300 and would also like to see it go up. The only thing keeping me in there is the story. BAD MOVE!!!

kind regards
Ang


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## spooly74 (8 June 2007)

daredevil said:


> The economics of digging up 1% of uranium over small 1-5m intervals, @ 180m depth must seriously come into question




With an average grade of 3700ppm at the moment contained in a small about of orebody, and given the generous  cutoff grade of 500ppm used (twice the average of other 'potential' mines)

If this mine is not economical, then the uranium bull is finished.


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## spooly74 (8 June 2007)

daredevil said:


> re: the cutoff. For isl operations you can't have a lower cutoff. won't do a thing- this aint afrika.
> 
> AGS is not going down on economics on the operation. It is economic because the beverley mine next door operates fine. Lets be frank. It had a very high valuation and priced for perfection. Whatever method you use, their share of the deposit was only 8 million pounds. Needs to prove up more ore




It was you who mentioned digging it up 

As for the the west being ISL, don`t count on it.
On the ABC (Catalyst) a couple of weeks ago, a spokesperson for Heathgate Resources mentioned the company were looking into an open pit mine a few kilometres from the Beverley mine.....mmmmmmmm

How much more would they take out if the scoping study reveals open pit? ... 30% more ore?


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## Broadside (8 June 2007)

daredevil said:


> Whatever method you use, their share of the deposit was only 8 million pounds. Needs to prove up more ore




No kidding.  And the $14m drilling program will do just that.   If you just base a valuation on JORC without allowing for probability of extension of resource you are 2 steps behind the market because someone is already doing that.  Of course there are no certainties, but you play the probabilities, which in this case are very high.  

I'll tell you where I see the risk - not in the resource, in my opinion it will be very big and highly economic.  I believe the current JORC has only scratched the surface.  I think the risk lies in the fact Heathgate controls 75% and they control the agenda, do they want to mine as soon as possible, are are they happy to sit on this a while, if they hold the view the Uranium price is going to go higher and higher over time?  What I mean is, there is a chance that Heathgate and AGS' interests do not align.  They should align, but who knows what a private company is thinking?  

As for the resource itself, I think that will be proven up and will more than justify the current capitalisation and then some.


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## spooly74 (8 June 2007)

Broadside said:


> I'll tell you where I see the risk - not in the resource, in my opinion it will be very big and highly economic.  I believe the current JORC has only scratched the surface.  I think the risk lies in the fact Heathgate controls 75% and they control the agenda, do they want to mine as soon as possible, are are they happy to sit on this a while, if they hold the view the Uranium price is going to go higher and higher over time?  What I mean is, there is a chance that Heathgate and AGS' interests do not align.  They should align, but who knows what a private company is thinking?




From Heathgates point of view there is no advantage to delaying production on B4mile. Currently sitting on over 3 billion IGV which could double by years end.
They only have about 10 years left on the current Beverley mine and imo are in a perfect position to capitalise on a rising U price (till 2011 imo)
Heathgate need only apply for an extension to the current mine to handle ISL from B4 east.
Because of the high grade in the west they can have an open pit operation running at the same.
If they get a mill capable of processing a  modest 1500tp day, they could be finished the west in just over 6 years.....that's the beauty of the high grade.
Other companies who have say an average of 250ppm using a similar mill, for a similar deposit would take 105 years, of course though, they would just get a bigger more expensive mill to do the job.

I guess it depends at what stage of development they can lock in prices.

The big spend on the drilling program this year imo means business....but nobody loves it at the moment.


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## Go Nuke (8 June 2007)

Looks to me like its falling through support at $1.90 mark.

Would the next level of support be at $1.60 ish???

I too hold a small share of AGS and one reason is that Im a firm beliver that this will turn into a mine one day. They have so much more drilling to be done.

Though in hindsight, i probably should have sold off when it fell through $2.20.


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## bigdog (15 June 2007)

ASX ANN June 15
15-06-2007 09:37 AM  AGS  Four Mile Uranium Project Update & Media Release  
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00729984

The market liked ANN first up this morning
AGS   $1.92    +$0.15  +8.47% 348,051 shares $ 666,684 @ 15-Jun 10:01:38 

READ LINK FOR FULL DETAILS

FOUR MILE URANIUM PROJECT
NEW HIGH GRADE ZONE OF MINERALISATION – FOUR MILE EAST
Highlights 

Drilling continues at Four Mile East with a ‘new’ high grade zone of uranium mineralisation intersected in the southern area of the prospect.

High grade intersections from Four Mile East include:
4.5 metres grading 0.59% pU3O8
2.7 metres grading 0.55% pU3O8
5.0 metres grading 0.22% pU3O8
2.4 metres grading 0.43% pU3O8
1.6 metres grading 0.63% pU3O8
3.3 metres grading 0.28% pU3O8
(pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade as estimated from PFN logging and may be subject to revision by application of
calibration correction factors)

Major step-out drilling program utilizing up to four drill rigs continues at Four Mile East to define the limits of mineralisation with the aim of estimating a mineral resource at Four Mile East during 2007.

Media Release – Alliance Announces Further High-Grade Uranium Results from Four Mile East
ALLIANCE ANNOUNCES FURTHER HIGH GRADE
URANIUM RESULTS FROM FOUR MILE EAST
SIGNIFICANT NEW HIGH-GRADE ZONE DISCOVERED IN SOUTHERN AREA

• Further excellent drilling results with a new high grade-zone of uranium mineralisation intersected at the southern area of Four Mile East Prospect.

• High-grade mineralization has a similar north-east orientation to the high-grade zone at Four Mile West (3.9 million tonnes at 0.37% U3O8).

• Major step-out drilling program continuing at Four Mile East to define the limits of mineralization at Four Mile East and underpin an initial resource estimate.


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## spooly74 (5 July 2007)

Decided to grab some more today.

The latest couple of drilling reports suggest to me that Quasar have a good grasp on the geology of B4East.
They have been drilling about 30 holes a month and in the last report found some more excellent grades to the North and South of previous drilling in that area.
On the image you can see there has been little or no drilling near these new hits plus no drilling to the East of one of their best grades which was 25800ppm.

Hoping that some more results around this new area plus the scoping study (due anyday but not holding my breath) is enough to stop the rot.

An application for mining lease will be off in the post soon and a possible JORC for B4East could be on the cards late in the year.

The MACD, Stochastics and RSI also look encouraging....but the obvious downtrend looks terrible.


----------



## Out Too Soon (13 July 2007)

Well here's hoping the sp has well & truly bottomed out, I'm holding from just over $2 thinking that was the support level, what I get for trying to pick bottoms I suppose. Patience is the only answer with this one for now.


----------



## Fab (18 July 2007)

Well this one is starting to move up strongly. Almost 6% at the moment. Can anyone explain why this is happening today ?


----------



## chicken (18 July 2007)

You know what is said..the gap will allways be filled......look at the gap of AGS....between $2.45 and $2.75.....technically....it will be filled maybe sooner than later if the news is good


----------



## powerkoala (18 July 2007)

ags was oversold when it touch 1.60 area though.
maybe this is the turning point? today's volume is increasing more than days before.
any thought?


----------



## bigdog (25 July 2007)

ASX announcement today

25/07/2007 Four Mile Uranium Project - Update June 2007
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00741692

FOUR MILE URANIUM PROJECT - JUNE 2007 Highlights
 High-grade uranium intercepts continue at Four Mile East, including:
3.1 metres grading 0.44% pU3O8
1.9 metres grading 0.50% pU3O8
2.7 metres grading 0.34% pU3O8
1.0 metres grading 0.69% pU3O8
1.7 metres grading 0.39% pU3O8
(pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade as estimated from PFN logging and may be subject to revision by application of calibration correction factors)

 Mineral Claim pegging over Four Mile has commenced.
 Major step-out drilling program utilizing up to four drill rigs continues at Four Mile East to define the limits of mineralisation with the aim of estimating a mineral resource at Four Mile East during 2007.

Media Release
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT URANIUM RESULTS EXTEND HIGH-GRADE ZONE AT FOUR MILE EAST TO +900 METRES 

HIGH-GRADE URANIUM INTERCEPTS; COMMENCEMENT OF MINERAL CLAIM PEGGING
• Additional high-grade uranium intercepts at Four Mile East.
• Significant progress achieved on major step-out drilling program with 37 holes completed in June.
• Mineral Claim pegging commenced ahead of Mining Lease applications.
• Initial drilling completed at new uranium prospect north east of Four Mile East.


----------



## Go Nuke (25 July 2007)

Yes more good news for AGS followers.
Its a shame Uranium isn't as hot as it once was.....for the time being.

My chart might be a bit rough but it looks to have possibly broken out of its downward trend and if you were working with countback lines, you could possibly take the chance at an entry.
However the short termers have only pushed into the long termers not broken above the long term averages.

I'd like to see it sit above the $1.90 mark, however as I said people seem to have gone off Uranium atm so the price might not stay up there.

Does anyone know how long it might take to peg out for a mining lease?


----------



## eMark (26 July 2007)

Just a moan and a grumble. I bought this YESTERDAY at $1.90, and now as I type it's $ 1.795. I do hope the current weakness does not continue.


----------



## powerkoala (26 July 2007)

eMark said:


> Just a moan and a grumble. I bought this YESTERDAY at $1.90, and now as I type it's $ 1.795. I do hope the current weakness does not continue.




can't expect AGS to fly high. current uranium price down $10. XAO get smashed twice in a row. even with such good news, we will see AGS goes lower.
still holding though


----------



## Fab (27 July 2007)

Indeed . Here are some more good news which should help AGS rebound faster than other stocks.

http://www.minebox.com/story.asp?articleId=9817


----------



## wllmtrish (30 July 2007)

Only wish i had more ready cash to accumulate AGS at these prices. The fundamentals keep improving with drill results Soooooo it has to rebound strongly; when the world market tremors settle i suppose.
I hold big time AGS. Good luck all holders.
dyor


----------



## drmb (31 July 2007)

wllmtrish said:


> Only wish i had more ready cash to accumulate AGS at these prices. The fundamentals keep improving with drill results Soooooo it has to rebound strongly; when the world market tremors settle i suppose. I hold big time AGS. Good luck all holders. dyor




Here's announcement to bring hope 

NEW GOLD REEF DISCOVERY AT MALDON
Maldon Gold Project – New Gold Reef Discovery at Maldon – Alliance Unveils High-Grade Gold Discovery at Maldon Gold Project

Highlights
- New high-grade gold lode discovered in Ladies reef as follows: 2.75m @ 22.10g/t gold
- New lode lies just 140m west of existing Union Hill exploration decline.
- Follow-up underground diamond drilling planned to define the geometry and the limits of the gold mineralisation.
- Potential for rapid development from the existing decline to provide early mill feed for Alliance’s fully permitted Maldon treatment plant.
The Directors of Alliance Resources Limited (“Alliance”) (ASX Code: AGS) are pleased to announce that a new gold lode has been discovered at its 100%-owned Maldon Gold Project in central Victoria some 140 metres west of the current decline. A recent diamond drill hole (DDH 136) was drilled west from the Union Hill Decline, targeting the Ladies and Day Dawn reefs. Gold assays confirm a significant mineralised zone in Ladies reef, associated with its east-bounding (“wall”) fault. The eastern mineralised zone comprises 2.75 metres @ 22.10 g/t gold, with a second zone of 1.00 metre @ 5.38g/t gold
approximately five metres further west. (etc)

I used to hold with a lot of other U stocks but took profit to consolidate to just 2, PDN and BMN but still follow with interest as my no 3 pick. Good luck to all holders


----------



## Go Nuke (31 July 2007)

Yeah ive been holding AGS since the start of the year. Another good thing I like about the company is its exposure to something other than Uranium.

I was reading a thread somewhere here just the other day, where someone noticed that a few gold miners were starting to pick up.

The price is still in the high $1.60's today but there looks to be good support in the low 60's so I think it can only go up in time from here.

Alliance are continuing to expand on their Uranium and now a further gold find...great news i think


----------



## wllmtrish (9 August 2007)

*Re: AGS - Alliance Resources TOP 20 Shareholders*

Looks very very very positive. 
Take a look on the AGS web site.
June 07 T20 Total Holding 138,662,955
July 07 T20 Total Holding 139,213,989      
Aug 07 T20 Total Holding 140,377,424
6 of the Top 13 shareholders increased their holdings.
7 of the Top 13 shareholders maintained their shareholding.
imho it is just a matter of time and we will be smiling a BIG smile.
dyor I hold AGS (>200,000 shares) and will continue to hold thru to mining.
I also hold CUL EMR RMI


----------



## eMark (11 August 2007)

*Re: AGS - Alliance Resources TOP 20 Shareholders*



wllmtrish said:


> Looks very very very positive.
> Take a look on the AGS web site.
> June 07 T20 Total Holding 138,662,955
> July 07 T20 Total Holding 139,213,989
> ...




Very interesting. Has anything changed re  the above figures for August 8, 9 & 10 over the course of the last couple of days of massive churning in the general markets.

Also I hold at 1.91, so as you can imagine I'm not a happy camper. I would like to believe that this stock from what I've read will improve, and move above $2.00 again, and not back to 90c.


----------



## Fab (14 August 2007)

*Re: AGS - Alliance Resources TOP 20 Shareholders*



eMark said:


> Very interesting. Has anything changed re  the above figures for August 8, 9 & 10 over the course of the last couple of days of massive churning in the general markets.
> 
> Also I hold at 1.91, so as you can imagine I'm not a happy camper. I would like to believe that this stock from what I've read will improve, and move above $2.00 again, and not back to 90c.




Why is AGS going down down down at the moment. I can't understand why there is a negative sentiment about it


----------



## Broadside (14 August 2007)

*Re: AGS - Alliance Resources TOP 20 Shareholders*



Fab said:


> Why is AGS going down down down at the moment. I can't understand why there is a negative sentiment about it




Uranium sector is on the nose short term (price fallen from US$135/lb to approx $110), although medium term there is still a supply deficit which bodes well for prices.

AGS has been placed into the overpriced Uranium stock basket with all the others, whether they be quality or not.  Only news and a timetable to mine will turn around sentiment and show the punters it's not just another U wannabee.


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## exgeo (14 August 2007)

I just checked on my spreadsheet that I keep with Market cap/Lb uranium resource. AGS is still 10x the market cap/lb U308 than MTN, so that may help explain why MTN is recovering before AGS. Anyone done any research on the gold value of AGS? I guess most people are interested in it for the "old glow in the dark", to quote Father Ted.


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## Broadside (14 August 2007)

I hold MTN as well, wouldn't you say AGS is 2-3 years closer than MTN in terms of production?  It will be the earliest producers that reap the greatest rewards before too much supply comes online.

Re gold, given the recent history of the Victorian gold industry (Bendigo Mining, Ballarat) I would say very little if any value is priced into the Maldon project.  I see it as a bonus.


----------



## exgeo (14 August 2007)

Of course you are right, but AGS is within 10% of the market cap./lb price of Paladin which is ALREADY in production.


----------



## Broadside (14 August 2007)

exgeo I know this is off topic, is BMN in your spreadsheet and if so how does it compare at the present time?  cheers

Anyway the whole U sector is very pungent at the moment, the only ones to recover will be actual producers, let's face it there was a lot of rubbish that surged with the rising tide across the whole sector.


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## exgeo (14 August 2007)

Here is the raw data. Use at your own risk! You can open with excel if you save this to a text file with the extension ".csv" first (use notepad to paste and save first). I used tonnes of U308 rather than lb, but it's just a relative number anyway, to produce a ranking. Use at your own risk.

Company,U308 (t),% Own,Grade (Kg/t),Price ©,shares,Cap ($M),Cap/Lb ($/lb),Cap/t at date of input
CTS,32700,100,0.32,60,"108,000,000",65,0.9,1.0
MTN,34400,100,0.6,420,"52,723,995",221,2.9,0.4
WHE,31800,100,0.09,250,"83,000,000",208,3.0,2.0
VUL,20000,100,1.8,135,"120,000,000",162,3.7,3.7
OMC,4950,100,0.4,50,"101,605,000",51,4.7,4.7
RPT,7860,100,0.52,16,"565,689,000",91,5.2,
TVC,30000,100,6.6,440,"111,986,263",493,7.5,9.8
ARU,3954,100,0.21,145,"58,132,507",84,9.7,2.9
BMN,12300,100,0.219,220,"127,532,617",281,10.4,10.4
GGY,1200,100,2,12,"247,727,528",30,11.3,4.2
NEL,8500,100,0.6,390,"61,110,410",238,12.7,3.5
RGT.V,5000,60,10,609,"19,143,700",117,17.7,10.6
EME,6500,53,2.1,510,"26,900,000",137,18.0,3.0
SMM,20000,50,2,290,"206,390,020",599,27.2,7.6
AGS,15000,25,3.7,120,"248,024,285",298,36.1,16.0
PDN,40000,100,0.7,610,"602,373,298","3,674",41.8,55.5

I note heavy buying by a director in EME the last 2 days (quarter of a million smackeroonies or so).


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## Broadside (14 August 2007)

many thanks ex geo................................................................................

AGS just got 15% better value, hmmmm


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## gilbertw (15 August 2007)

Wow! This stock was $1.25 2 days ago, now its 95cents! I've taken the plunge and taken advantage of the negative sentiment. The fundamentals are strong and I feel there's money to be made at these levels. Does anyone have a view as to what a fair price is (market volitility aside)? I have a figure of $1.50 in my mind but it's just a gut feeling, no substance behind it


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## eMark (15 August 2007)

*Re: AGS - Alliance Resources TOP 20 Shareholders*



eMark said:


> Very interesting. Has anything changed re  the above figures for August 8, 9 & 10 over the course of the last couple of days of massive churning in the general markets.
> 
> Also I hold at 1.91, so as you can imagine I'm not a happy camper. I would like to believe that this stock from what I've read will improve, and move above $2.00 again, and not back to 90c.




Don't worry guys, looks like todays market answered my question for me. A 50% retractment from my buy in price. Nice and that was only 3 or so weeks ago. Ho hum.


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## exgeo (17 August 2007)

More buyers than sellers for the first time in ages. Perhaps the knife has finally hit the table. Same for EME (well, almost). A positive comment on AGS from Warwick Grigor in yesterday's Fin probably helped (something along the lines of instos should be a buyer of AGS at these levels if they want Uranium exposure).


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## spooly74 (17 August 2007)

exgeo said:


> More buyers than sellers for the first time in ages. Perhaps the knife has finally hit the table. Same for EME (well, almost). A positive comment on AGS from Warwick Grigor in yesterday's Fin probably helped (something along the lines of instos should be a buyer of AGS at these levels if they want Uranium exposure).




I`d agree that article helped prop up the sp for the moment, but it`s going to be a hard slog back to the top.
Scoping study, east jorc yada yada yada!

There was an auction over the weekend for 200t of Uranium hex and I`d imagine it`s dropped the price below $100, maybe someone with a subscription to Tradetech can confirm?

Attached is a .pdf of the article in the Fin.
cheers

cheers


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## wllmtrish (23 August 2007)

News is obviously very very close and the buy side is looking particularly strong.
There has been slow steady accumulation going on over the last few days.
The Top 20 shareholders 'Total holdings' have increased.
This baby is baout to race back up, imho of course.
dyor I have a very big holding and have been topping up at these V low prices.


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## wllmtrish (23 August 2007)

Not too late to get a slice of the action peoples.
AGS is going to be over $3 by years end.
Those in the know are taking their positions today.
The bot traders seem to have disappeared.
I hold and will do so for the mid to long term.
Big news is close.
dyor


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## bigdog (28 August 2007)

ASX ann today

SP up 6 cents first up 
AGS   	$1.48  	   	  +$0.06   	  +4.23%   	 	 292,287 shares 	 $425,660 @ 	 28-Aug 10:04:39

28/08/2007	High Grade Uranium Zone Extended by 33% at Four Mile East
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00752784

FOUR MILE URANIUM PROJECT
High Grade Uranium Zone Extended by 33% at Four Mile East

*HIGHLIGHTS *

The Four Mile East high-grade zone has increased to more than 1200 metres and is open along strike.
New high-grade uranium intersections (GT>1mO8) at Four Mile East, including:
5.4 m @ 0.85% pU3O8 (AK370)
1.2 m @ 1.10% pU3O8 (AK371)
2.4 m @ 0.62% pU3O8 (AK372)
4.0 m @ 0.26% pU3O8 (AK373)
5.3 m @ 0.21% pU3O8 (AK376)
2.5 m @ 0.71% pU3O8 (AK382)
2.5 m @ 0.90% pU3O8 (AK386)
4.5 m @ 0.47% pU3O8 (AK395)
2.6 m @ 0.62% pU3O8 (AKC006)

(GT = grade x thickness (mO8. pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade as estimated from PFN logging and may be subject to revision by application of calibration correction factors).

Major step-out drilling program utilizing up to four drill rigs continues at Four Mile East to define the limits of mineralisation with the aim of estimating a mineral resource at Four Mile East during 2007.


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## Go Nuke (28 August 2007)

Yes good to see that ann come out of AGS.

I'm sure some bottom feeders who were able to pick some shares up under the $1 will be very happy about that.
I dont believe Uranium is dead and buried yet. many countries are still looking at using it for their future source of fuel and I'm sure the good sentiment will return to the quality Uranium companies like AGS etc.

I look forward to the day that all this drilling is finished and we can start looking at at PFS or BFS.


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## wllmtrish (28 August 2007)

Just be patient peoples. 
This is a gem.
There might be dips but AGS is going up, up, up, up and uuuuuuppppp in the medium to long term.
Nothing anyone does or says can change the fact that this is going to be the biggest U discovery in the last 20 yrs.
The size is still to be determined by more extensive drilling. All imho of course.
I have a big holding. dyor


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## wllmtrish (28 August 2007)

As off 27th August the Total Holding is 
140,796,723 shares.
As compared 9th Aug 140,377,424
Of particular interest:-
Beck increased his holding
From 2,713082   to   3,800,000
National Nominees increased their holding
From 4,701,957   to   5,721,741
Speaks for itself, dyor.


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## wllmtrish (28 August 2007)

Sorry left out TOP 20 Total Holdings
As off 27th August the Total Holding is 
140,796,723 shares.
As compared 9th Aug 140,377,424
Of particular interest:-
Beck increased his holding
From 2,713082 to 3,800,000
National Nominees increased their holding
From 4,701,957 to 5,721,741
Speaks for itself, dyor.


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## wllmtrish (9 September 2007)

*Re: AGS*



Mrs Mallins said:


> If it formed a handle we'd serve tea wouldn't we dears, but it looks more like a soup ladle - a rounded bottom already topped.  I wonder if the price is being influenced by those nice boys meeting in Sydney yesterday and today about green gas who seem to want some yellow cake with their tea (or soup).




Uranium is the way of the future.
This is vindicated by the World leaders signing up for supplies of our Uranium.
Supplying the likes of Russia, China, India etc, etc is just the beginning.
Companies such as AGS, PDN, BHP, ERA (RIO) will prosper immensely over the coming years.
There has been a dip in the price of Uranium but with all of the publicity re: Global Warming, greenhouse effect (carbon emmissions) the longer term price is sure to increase.
It is just a matter of time and the longs in AGS will be well rewarded.
In fact with the recent signings by our industrious foresighted Prime Minister Howard, imho next week we will see evidence of all of the above with an increase in the AGS share price although maybe somewhat subdued due to the turmoil in the Yankee market flowing onto world markets as this is where most investment focus is.
dyor I hold AGS CUL EMR


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## Out Too Soon (12 September 2007)

I hold AGS also & while I feel optimistic in the long term for any Uranium producer (producer to be), I can't help but wonder if anyone is still holding from $2.91  , my holdings red but not THAT red, bet they wouldn't feel too enthusiastic right now.


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## powerkoala (12 September 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> I hold AGS also & while I feel optimistic in the long term for any Uranium producer (producer to be), I can't help but wonder if anyone is still holding from $2.91  , my holdings red but not THAT red, bet they wouldn't feel too enthusiastic right now.




still hold at 2.07c.
not a happy one. 
should out before when it back to 2.30c. 
now it's going to be a long way back.


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## Go Nuke (13 September 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> I hold AGS also & while I feel optimistic in the long term for any Uranium producer (producer to be), I can't help but wonder if anyone is still holding from $2.91  , my holdings red but not THAT red, bet they wouldn't feel too enthusiastic right now.




I hold from $2.13 back in about Feb...but I'm new to the share market, so have alot to learn
But as you say, AGS even if it is a JV I have confidence that when the bulls come back into Uranium, Alliance will get back up there. I think they are one of the closest companies to getting to the producing stage in a state thats willing to give the ok to U mining.


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## wllmtrish (17 September 2007)

Total Holding of the Top 20 has incresed again and by month is as follows :-
Total shares held 
July 140,377,424
Aug 140,544,846 
Sept 140,976,932
For me imho this is a good sign once again
I hold AGS CUL EMR dyor


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## wllmtrish (17 September 2007)

Total shares on issue 249,524,285
Top 20 holding has increased as follows
13 Nov 06   130,872,474   53.51%
05 July 07   138,662,955   55.57%
26 July 07   139,213,989   55.79%
17 Aug 07   140,544,846   56.33%
17 Sept07   140,976,932   56.498% 
I hold AGS CUL EMR  dyor
imho The accumulation is a great sign.


----------



## wllmtrish (18 September 2007)

AGS Top 20 Shareholders increasing  their holding in the last month to Sept 17th 07:-
National Nominees bought 857,000 shares, giving them a total of 5,565,875 shares.
RBC Nominees bought 124,000 shares, giving them a total of 4,619,472 shares.
Beck Corporation bought 690,000 shares, giving them a total of 3,690,891 shares.
HSBC-GSCO  bought 58,000 shares, giving them a total of 3,140,253 shares.
JP Morgan Nom bought 85,000 shares, giving them a total of 2,340,443 shares.
 HSBC Nom bought 538,000 shares, giving them a total of 2,087,604 shares.
Note Citicorp decreased their holding from 4,572,157 to 3,830,058 b/t 27 Aug-17 Sept.


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## wllmtrish (19 September 2007)

As past drill results have been very encouraging.
Pegging of the area as a pre-curser to a Mining Licence application. 
A Concept study underway are all good signs.
Ongoing drilling of East area and updates to follow.
Moving back to further define West area at completion of current East defining drill program.
More Insto/ Large Shareholders are building up a stake supported by the ongoing bot trading. 
Most shareholders are not traders.
All is well imho, dyor
I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## Out Too Soon (20 September 2007)

wllmtrish said:


> AGS Top 20 Shareholders increasing  their holding in the last month to Sept 17th 07:-
> National Nominees bought 857,000 shares, giving them a total of 5,565,875 shares.
> RBC Nominees bought 124,000 shares, giving them a total of 4,619,472 shares.
> Beck Corporation bought 690,000 shares, giving them a total of 3,690,891 shares.
> ...




Thx Wllmtrish, that's gotta be positive even though the sp is still dropping I'm confident the big money isn't throwing good money after bad.


----------



## wllmtrish (1 October 2007)

Top 20 Total Shares Held increases again.
17 Sept Total Holding 140,976,932 ie. 56.498%
28 Sept Total Holding 141,493,145 ie. 56.71%
This is an increase of 483,787 shares extra held by the Top 20 shareholders.
To me this can only mean one thing, those in the know believe AGS is a good thing and are still accumulating at this price.
Also tells me the bot trading is to accomodate for more accumulation.
imho Just a matter of being patient and AGS will show their true worth.
dyor I hold AGS CQT CUL EMR


----------



## Sean K (1 October 2007)

B4ME is shaping up to be as good as B4MW. Maybe lower grade, but potentially higher tonnage. 

Anyone got a latest potential valuation? 

Cracking $1.50 might be important.


----------



## powerkoala (1 October 2007)

kennas, i reckon the resistance level is at $1.52 before it will fly back to $2 area. quite strong resistance there.
maybe another good news will push it there?
good luck to all holders


----------



## Fab (9 October 2007)

Can anyone tell me why this stock keeps falling ?? It looks like a stock with a lot of potential but at the moment nothing seems to be able to keep its SP going up ?


----------



## powerkoala (9 October 2007)

Fab said:


> Can anyone tell me why this stock keeps falling ?? It looks like a stock with a lot of potential but at the moment nothing seems to be able to keep its SP going up ?




good Q.
because of uranium spot price $75 perhaps or #@^%#@ sellers ?
i was really happy when it almost broke the 1.50 resistance, and now falling apart again.
really dissapointed.


----------



## wllmtrish (9 October 2007)

Yes disappointing I know, as I hold a large amount of AGS shares.
However I have not yet lost faith as the Top20 'Total shareholding' has been increasing over the last few months
eg. 4 June Total Holding 135,035,867 ie. 54.44%
26 July Total Holding 139,213,989 ie. 55.79%
9 Aug  Total Holding 140,377, 424 ie. 56.26%
17 Sept Total Holding 140,976,932 ie. 56.498%
28 Sept Total Holding 141,493,145 ie. 56.71%
This is an increase of 6,457,278 shares held by the Top 20 shareholders between June to Sept 2007.
To me this can only mean one thing, those in the know believe AGS is a good thing and are still accumulating at this price.
Also tells me the bot trading is to accomodate for more accumulation.
imho Just a matter of being patient and AGS will show their true worth.
dyor I hold AGS CQT CUL EMR


----------



## laurie (9 October 2007)

Just maybe the accumulation by the top 20 holders is nothing about Uranium!! I think IMHO it has more to do with the *GOLD*at Maldon which everybody seems to forget about and worry about the 25% stake at  FOUR MILE URANIUM PROJECT 

cheers laurie


----------



## danc (9 October 2007)

But just how good is this gold thing Laurie, seems a psy little thing to me and i havnt looked for a while but as i recall prduction costs wernt all that good.


----------



## laurie (9 October 2007)

Well there are a few reports on their web site about their Gold the point is though once operational it should cover some of the cost at Four Mile Project

cheers laurie


----------



## spooly74 (10 October 2007)

It`s simply because of the lack of news coming out of B4 recently. Quasar have em by the balls.

The last 4mile update was in August, so we could expect an update soon .... The scoping study is overdue ... well overdue 

On the ground though, there are now 5 rigs in operation to define the limits of B4 East ... keep drilling boys.



> Cracking $1.50 might be important




Holding $1.25 even more so atm.


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## wllmtrish (12 October 2007)

Just a quick message re: Percentage held by the Top 20 shareholders.
This has increased yet again as follows:-
28 sept 07 141,493,145 shares 56.71%
12 Oct 07 141,658,841 shares 56.74%
Therefore bot trading is still seeing accumulation in the Total Holding of the Top 20. 
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


----------



## wllmtrish (16 October 2007)

Uranium Futures have the December 07 most recent settle $84.50 which is up $5.50. The Uranium price has climbed for the first time in 17 weeks.
This is a very positive sign and indicates that the price of U has bottomed out.
Here is a snippet from u308biz
Uranium spot price held its ground at US$75 this week and analysts speculate this may be the price bottom. Prices remain volatile, but the fluctuations don't indicate further price drops. Trading volumes are steadily increasing as courageous speculators return to a market
they hastily abandoned during last summer's price correction.
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## wllmtrish (17 October 2007)

AGS has just gone into Trading Halt until Announcement or Monday.
Good luck all holders
I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## bigdog (17 October 2007)

ASX ANN today 17/10/2007 Trading Halt

Announcement due and to remain in pre-open until Monday

Trading for October has been quite and not unusual!

Date........  	 Close   	Volume  
17-Oct-07	 1.39 	322,853
16-Oct-07	 1.41 	241,523
15-Oct-07	 1.40 	348,212
12-Oct-07	 1.40 	279,318
11-Oct-07	 1.38 	252,159
10-Oct-07	 1.35 	461,608
09-Oct-07	 1.28 	748,694
08-Oct-07	 1.36 	230,390
05-Oct-07	 1.35 	269,893
04-Oct-07	 1.35 	240,343
03-Oct-07	 1.41 	397,215
02-Oct-07	 1.47 	245,656
01-Oct-07	 1.50 	107,781


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## wllmtrish (17 October 2007)

Part of the request for a trading hold is as follows:-   The Directors of Alliance Resources expect to shortly make a SIGNIFICANT announcement which they are not in a position to release at present.
I really like the word SIGNIFICANT.
Fingers crossed the market likes what it is about to hear.


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## wllmtrish (17 October 2007)

Posting this extract from the September 2007 annual report to refresh our memories. It is excellent reading imho.

Activities: Uranium, gold & copper exploration
Issued Capital: 249.5 million shares
& 1.57 million unlisted options
Market Capitalisation: $321 million @ $1.285 closing price @ 19 September 2007
Cash reserves: $5.2 million @ 30 June 2007
Top 20 shareholders: 56.6%
ASX Code: AGS
Company Objective
Maximise shareholder wealth through successful exploration and
responsible, sustainable & profitable development of mineral deposits.
Corporate Strategy
1. Realise the full potential of the Four Mile uranium discovery
and surrounds.
2. Prove the concept that Maldon Gold Project is profitable.
2007 Highlights
 Initial Inferred Mineral Resource estimate at Four Mile West is
3.9 million tonnes at 0.37% U3O8 containing 15,000 tonnes
(32 million lb) of U3O8.
 The resource estimate area (~1km²) is within a much larger area
(>5 km²) of potential mineralisation at Four Mile as indicated by
broad-spaced drilling and gamma responses.
 Concept study for mining at Four Mile has commenced.
Projects Outlook
 Arkaroola Uranium, Copper-Gold Project, South Australia
(includes Four Mile Uranium discovery)
:: Establish initial uranium mineral resource at Four Mile East;
:: Complete concept study at Four Mile;
:: Commence In Situ Leach (ISL) field trial;
:: Apply for Mining Lease(s) at Four Mile; and
:: Continue drilling at Four Mile with the aim of increasing the
mineral resource.
 Maldon Gold Project, Victoria
:: Explore for remnant and new gold lodes as decline progresses;
:: Establish mineral resources at Ladies Reef; and
:: Complete the decline and commence trial mining at
Alliance South.
 Warrina Copper-Gold Project, South Australia
:: Diamond drill Big NE magnetic/gravity target to test for
copper-gold.
 East Frome Base Metal Project, New South Wales
:: Commence geophysics and fieldwork in order to generate
targets for follow up.


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## eMark (17 October 2007)

I've enjoyed your posts re AGS. Until I read todays posts I had no idea AGS was in a trading halt. Which is pretty sad considering I own shares in AGS. It certainly highlights my dissapointment and lack of interest of late, to the point where I'm not even following it's SP movements. I do hope that this upcoming announcement puts some upward movement into the SP. I hold at $1.91.....



wllmtrish said:


> Posting this extract from the September 2007 annual report to refresh our memories. It is excellent reading imho.
> 
> Activities: Uranium, gold & copper exploration
> Issued Capital: 249.5 million shares
> ...


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## laurie (17 October 2007)

wllmtrish said:


> Part of the request for a trading hold is as follows:-   The Directors of Alliance Resources expect to shortly make a SIGNIFICANT announcement which they are not in a position to release at present.
> I really like the word SIGNIFICANT.
> Fingers crossed the market likes what it is about to hear.




*which they are not in a position to release at present*

That always amazes me,so why not wait until they are in a position to announce it and why announce it if you are not ready to but the word SIGNIFICANT does make me happy anyone guess of new sp 

cheers laurie


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## drmb (18 October 2007)

eMark said:


> ... Until I read todays posts I had no idea AGS was in a trading halt. Which is pretty sad considering I own shares in AGS .....




You can get free alerts to ann and media reports on any asx company at http://www.newsalerts.com.au/index.php

I have held ags on and off (off atm) and think it is the best next to my currently held pdn and bmn. It's a quality share imo.


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## eMark (20 October 2007)

drmb said:


> You can get free alerts to ann and media reports on any asx company at http://www.newsalerts.com.au/index.php
> 
> I have held ags on and off (off atm) and think it is the best next to my currently held pdn and bmn. It's a quality share imo.




Thanks for that, I'll check it out. It will be very interesting to see how AGS re-opens on Monday after the announcement; considering it's also going to have to face off against last nights 366 point loss on the DOW.

Hope it's a good one!


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## bigdog (22 October 2007)

*Is this the significant news requiring a trading halt last week!!*

SP today  AGS   	$1.32  	   	  -$0.07   	  -5.04% high of  	 $1.325 low of  	 $1.225  	 566,030 shares 	 $733,338  @	 22-Oct 12:33:02

ASX ANN today:
AGS  	9:57 AM  	Alliance Completes A$30m Share Placement. Incl Appendix 3B
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00772161

GLOBAL AND LOCAL INVESTORS SUPPORT A$30 MILLION SHARE PLACEMENT
The Directors of Alliance Resources Limited (“Alliance”) (ASX Code: AGS) are pleased to announce that that it has completed a A$30 million share placement comprising 23.1 million ordinary shares at A$1.30 per share to institutional and sophisticated investors.

The majority of the securities were placed to large Australian and Global Institutional investors.

The placement is being undertaken pursuant to the “excluded offer” provisions (Section 708) of the Corporations Act. The issue of the shares is within the Company’s existing 15% share issue capacity

The funds raised from the Placement will principally be applied towards:
• Arkaroola Joint Venture - Four Mile Uranium Project (anticipating a Decision to Mine in 2008);
• Ongoing exploration and development work at the 100%-owned Maldon Gold Project in Victoria;
• Exploration activities at the Company’s portfolio of regional projects in South Australia & New South Wales; and
• General working capital and new project opportunities.

Funds from the Placement are expected to be received by 30 October 2007.

Also ANN
AGS  	10:02 AM  	   	Investor Presentation
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00772162


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## laurie (22 October 2007)

Interesting to see the new top 20 shareholders after all of this! if this is the significant news they referred to,to justify the trading halt then god help us if they have bad news 

cheers laurie


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## Fab (23 October 2007)

Obviously yesterday annoucement was not that bad. The problem was that the market was depressed therefore pushing AGS down. Up over 7% today. Looks good to me


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## Out Too Soon (23 October 2007)

Holders breath a sigh of relief, one of the bottom 20 shareholders was stop lossed out last friday & the sp has been heading nth since then.


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## Sean K (29 October 2007)

More fantasic grades from B4ME, although not very wide. At some point I anticipate the market will be able to assess the true value of this deposit. I'm not sure if a $$ figure can be put on it still...


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## bigdog (29 October 2007)

AGS SP currently after ANN
AGS   	$1.45  	   	  +$0.06   	  +4.32% woth high of $1.48 	 172,774  shares  	 $251,361  	 29-Oct 10:26:19

ASX ANN today
29/10/2007	FURTHER HIGH GRADE URANIUM INTERCEPTS AT FOUR MILE EAST
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00775437

Further High Grade Uranium Intercepts at Four Mile East

*HIGHLIGHTS*
New high-grade uranium intercepts (GT>1mO8) at Four Mile East, including:

1.50 m @ 1.13% pU3O8 (AK398)
2.60 m @ 0.53% pU3O8 (AK442)
1.85 m @ 1.94% pU3O8 (AK445)
5.20 m @ 0.33% pU3O8 (AK447)
4.70 m @ 0.69% pU3O8 (AK447)
1.10 m @ 1.53% pU3O8 (AK453)
2.85 m @ 0.84% pU3O8 (AK470)
3.85 m @ 0.35% pU3O8 (AK477)
2.35 m @ 0.60% pU3O8 (AK482)
2.90 m @ 0.44% pU3O8 (AK487)
3.75 m @ 0.28% pU3O8 (AK489)
4.10 m @ 1.69% pU3O8 (AK505)
2.10 m @ 0.61% pU3O8 (AK519)
0.70 m @ 1.67% pU3O8 (AKC009)
(GT = grade x thickness (mO8. pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade as estimated from PFN logging and may be subject to revision by application of calibration correction factors).

New mineralised zones identified in the southern part of Four Mile East Prospect.

Drilling continues at Four Mile East with up to five rotary mud and two diamond core rigs in operation.

Full ann is 11 pages


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## wllmtrish (29 October 2007)

So a little bit of maths for those who prefer parts per million.
1.94% = 1.94/100
so 1.94/100x1Million=19,400
thus 1.94%=19,400ppm
That to me is a very rich resource which just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
Still lots of untested zones so the AGS sp will just keep on going up.
I would bet on $xx sp within 18months which should be very close to mining stage. Maybe a full take-over before then though. Just mho.
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## wllmtrish (30 October 2007)

AGS in Pre-Open after strong gains in sp this morning, one would think someone was in the know. just mho.
dyor I hold AGS


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## Dutchy3 (30 October 2007)

I bought a gut full on the close via CFD .... bit of a margin risk on this one as the provider requires 10% ... don't need this one to muck about at this point


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## Dutchy3 (1 November 2007)

18% in 2 days ... ?

So what else is going on ?

Or is this just reacting along with this weeks other nice performers?


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## eMark (2 November 2007)

I had a feeling some of the U stocks wouldn't be that affected with the 362 point plunge in the DOW last night; due to returning sentiment in the U sector. But AGS in the first hour is going very well. A low of 1.74 from it's close of 1.87 yesterday, and already it's back to where it finished (1.87).


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## Dutchy3 (2 November 2007)

I didn't even know what this stock did when I took the position. Offered via CFD at 5% margin so presumed the liquidity was there ...

Does it actually provide a cash flow situation that is positive?


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## wllmtrish (5 November 2007)

Here is the proof again that institutions are buying:
Percentage held by the Top 20 shareholders.
This has increased yet again as follows:-
28 sept 07 141,493,145 shares 56.71%
12 Oct 07 141,658,841 shares 56.74%
*05 Nov 07 161,619,953 shares 59.26%*
Therefore bot trading is still seeing accumulation in the Total Holding of the Top 20. 
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR
Quaser has only drill tested 10sqK of a total 150sqK 
The story is only just unfolding
Good luck all holders Just a matter of being patient


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## Dutchy3 (5 November 2007)

Yep ... pretty sad day on the ASX today and this one held up. Certainly a positive sign for those of us LONG


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## wllmtrish (6 November 2007)

Here is the proof again that institutions are buying:
Percentage held by the Top 20 shareholders.
This has increased yet again as follows:-
28 sept 07 141,493,145 shares 56.71%
12 Oct 07 141,658,841 shares 56.74%
*05 Nov 07 161,619,953 shares 59.26% *
Of the Top 20 shareholders, those that changed their share holdings 
between the 12th October and 5th November 2007:
Nefco Nominees No.2 shareholder
 bought another 7,000 shares
HSBC Custody Nominees No.3 shareholder
 bought another 5,146,208 shares 
HSBC-GSCOESCA No.4 shareholder
 bought another 3,884,600 shares
National Nominees No.5 shareholder
 bought another 1,413,183 shares
Citicorp Nominees No.6 shareholder
 bought another 3,043,950 shares
RBC Dexia Nominees No.7 shareholder
 bought another 1,923,000 shares
BECK Corporation No.9 shareholder
 bought another 772,850 shares
ANZ Nominees No.10 shareholder
 bought another 1,980,422 shares
JP Morgan Nominees No.11 shareholder
 bought another 1,397,410 
HSBC A/C 2 No. 15 shareholder
 decreased holding by 899,157 shares
Mr S J Cole No.20 shareholder
 decreased holding by 43,200 shares


*It is important  to note that AGS has 6 Directors/Staff in the Top 20 all of whom have not reduced their shareholdings.*
*Total Shares Held by Top 20 increased from 141,658,841 to 161,619,953 shares*
Therefore bot trading is still seeing accumulation in the Total Holding of the Top 20. 
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR
*Quasar (their JV Partner) has only drill tested 10sqK of a total 150sqK *
Good luck all holders Just a matter of being patient. 
*The story is only just unfolding.*


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## eMark (6 November 2007)

wllmtrish said:


> Here is the proof again that institutions are buying:
> Percentage held by the Top 20 shareholders.
> This has increased yet again as follows:-
> 28 sept 07 141,493,145 shares 56.71%
> ...




What happened to AGS today? A 15.5c slide. I wasn't watching, and was shocked to see this drop. No announcments, nothing? Just some profit taking? I was considering getting out at my break even, but felt it may move past $2.00. Now I'm beginning to regret I didn't do just that....Any ideas?


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## wllmtrish (6 November 2007)

Going by todays trading lots of dumping and with the bots taking over, looks very much like sophisticates taking a quick 25% profit. It will be interesting to see the next Top 20 update and see if the likes of HSBC, Citicorp, ANZ, J P Morgan have lightened their holdings.
Disappointing for us all who hold long term but as I have said *'the story is just unfolding' *and having patience will produce a big smile.
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR CRJOA


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## Dutchy3 (6 November 2007)

I'm holding on ... taken in context todays sell off indeed could simply be a it of profit taking although I note that the volume was disturbingly high ... balance of the week will let me know if worth holding ...


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## wllmtrish (16 November 2007)

Of the Top 20 shareholders, those that changed their share holdings between the
5th November and 16th November 2007:
RBC Dexia Nominees No.7 shareholder
bought another 1,031,600 shares (now No.3 shareholder)National Nominees No.5 shareholder
bought another 258,373 shares (still No.5 shareholder)
ANZ Nominees No.10 shareholder
bought another 313,120 shares (now No.9 shareholder)
JP Morgan Nominees No.11 shareholder
bought another 787,068 (now No.10 shareholder) 
BECK Corporation No.9 shareholder
bought another 9,753 shares (now No.11 shareholder)

HSBC Custody Nominees No.3 shareholder
Sold 53,217 shares (now No.4 shareholder)
HSBC-GSCOESCA No.3 shareholder
Sold 85,000 shares (now No.6 shareholder)
Citicorp Nominees No.6 shareholder
Sold 911,029 shares (now No.8 shareholder)
HSBC A/C 2 No. 15 shareholder
Sold 394,391 shares (now No.19 shareholder)

*Total Shares Held by Top 20 increased by 1,126,277 *shares ie.from 161,619,953 shares to 162,746,230 shares.
*The clever money is accumulating AGS shares.*
dyor I hold a sizeable amount of AGS shares; this is not a recommendation to buy.
Good luck all holders the future looks bright and as the CEO said in one of his reports "*the story is just unfolding*" or something like that.


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## eMark (20 November 2007)

wllmtrish said:


> Of the Top 20 shareholders, those that changed their share holdings between the
> 5th November and 16th November 2007:
> RBC Dexia Nominees No.7 shareholder
> bought another 1,031,600 shares (now No.3 shareholder)National Nominees No.5 shareholder
> ...




Hi there

Any further news re holdings, accumulations etc? This stock has been a little stagnant of late (consolidating)?

On closer reading of your last post, you seemed to have answered that question already.

e Mark


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## skunkmonkey (25 November 2007)

What does the change of government mean for AGS and the other companies eager to mine uranium in Australia?


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## Sean K (25 November 2007)

skunkmonkey said:


> What does the change of government mean for AGS and the other companies eager to mine uranium in Australia?



Mike Rann's on the board of AGS, don't worry. 

There is still a push in the Labor hierachy to open up U mining so it's not a done deal. 

I think the Labor conference decision will hold up. That is, it's up to the states...

SA wants to mine U at the moment. It's in their economic interest. 

QLD and WA explorers may suffer.


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## rhen (25 November 2007)

*No question! *
Uranium mining is *part of ALP policy*. If it is not, then the new PM starts a slide none of us really want to see...regardless of political affiliation...a PM without control of his party let alone the government.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/labor-scraps-uranium-policy/2007/04/28/1177460030075.html
the weekly chart doesn't read well but the daily suggests to me some improvement in sp is around the corner...but then again, if people are not aware of this policy...???


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## pb112 (30 November 2007)

AGS ALLIANCE RESOURCES LIMITED FPO
Interesting AGM today
We just have to patient with AGS at present. I attended the AGM this morning and not too much in the way of news. The director selling was actually his partner selling a few shares which he explained at the meeting. We just have to remember that 4mile is a world class deposit. Drilling has only covered a very small percentage of the Arkaroola EL3666 area of 150 km² and they are very keen on an area east of Mt Gee (refer page 3 in Annual report )
Will take multiple years to drill out the extent of the deposit. So it will only get bigger
The mineral resource for 4 mile east is due late Dec early Jan and has a lot of high grade u as well.
Field leach trials will be conducted within 12 months but could be earlier but dependant on Quasar.
Production decision will be inside 12 months as well but that timing will be dictated by Quasar as well.
Once production begins selling of the uranium will be done under the Quasar export license, but AGS will be applying for their own export license as well.
Overall every one very positive about the future, its going to take time to bring it all together thats all. 
Regarding the short selling and Bot trading, a couple of items were mentioned, porkies had been spread about contamination of the Great Artesian Basin,Steve Johnson scotched that one, as he did about the grading of the sand and permeability of the roll front ares.Could be the short seller was trying to down play the prospects. It certainly seems the funds are loading them selves up with AGS, Ian Gandel inferred that these were the dissenters ,voting against the motion to issue options to non-executive directors,(appears to be happening frequently,resulting in the difficulty of obtaining people of the right caliber) Seems the Elephant in the corner is still the East Frome Project, Uranium defiantly there, but will look for Base metals and Thorium in the meantime.
Decline delays for the Maldon gold project due to OHS obligations, machinery break down, ground water and unfavorable soil conditions. Mid next year estimated time to hit the targeted gold deposit.


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## wllmtrish (30 November 2007)

I got home late last night from Melb after attending the AGM.
All directors are upbeat abt the prospects of AGS.
They believe 2008 is going to be an exciting year and they are looking forward to the next agm when they hope to be able to hold up the first Gold bar from Maldon, Vic AND be very close to mining Beverley 4 Mile.
After the meeting i spoke with John Dunlop, Steve Johnston who believe the story is only just unfolding and there are possibly other Uranium Roll Front waiting to be discovered in the surrounding areas of Beverley.
All directors presented very well at the meeting.
Steve Johnston mentioned the fact that at recent mining presentations there was a rumour circulating that Beverley 4 mile would impact on the Great Artesian Basin. Steve dismissed this rumour and assured the meeting that the GAB peetered out well short of Beverley.
Big NE 03 earliest to drill is Mar 08 (weather now too hot in that area).
Lake Frome NSW Expect Airbourne Geometric late next year for IOGCU but as cainmaple points out NSW not conducive to U exploration/mining.
Spoke at length with Ian Gandel and he specially made the point that he has NOT and will not be selling any of his shares as there is plenty of blue sky.
He spoke out about the >30M votes (institution votes) against the issue of dir options and I for one agreed with him that the director receive a very conservative remuneration (as compared with many other companies) and the options are an incentive for them to produce the wealth creation for us as shareholders.
He made the point that they are working very hard and in the best interests of shareholders.
Good luck everyone and as many have been saying, Be Patient just a matter of time, the story is just unfolding.
dyor I hold AGS CQT CUL EMR


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## wllmtrish (2 December 2007)

AGS My take on the future. dyor
1. AGS have Beverley 4 Mile West Uranium Roll Front Discovery
2. An extremely rich resource, yet to be fully defined and sure to be upgraded in size.
3. AGS have Beverley 4 Mile East Uranium Roll Front Discovery.
5. An extremely rich resource, yet to be defined and included in their assets.
6. AGS will very likely drill Beverley 4 Mile South and declare another U Roll Front discovery. They have some drill results with interesting grades.
7. AGS will follow up with Beverley 4 Mile North, your guess is as good as mine.
8. The area of U Roll Fronts has only just been touched on with Beverley 4 Mile. The total project area owned by AGS is 1200 square Kilometres.
9. They have a joint venture partner equal in stature to any in the world.
10. AGS has a world class Uranium discovery which is expanding and growing bigger and bigger gy the minute. How many U Roll Fronts they will discover in this 1200 sq.k is anyones guess.
11. Uranium is the way of the future as acknowledged by the leaders of the world of nations and backed by the fact that many new U base load power plants are either under construction or on the drawing board.
Need i go on 'the writing is on the wall' This U things is just going to get bigger and bigger as it is only just gaining momentum.
dyor I hold AGS  and for me they will either be taken over or go from strength to strength once the bot trading has had its' fill. If you Think this is a ramp then that's your prerogative.


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## wllmtrish (6 December 2007)

*AGS TOP 20 SHAREHOLDER CHANGES AS OF 5th Dec 2007*
Of the Top 20 shareholders, those that changed their share holdings between the
16th November and 5th Dec 07.
National Nominees No.5 shareholder move up to No.2
bought another 872,652 shares 
ANZ Nominees No.9 shareholder
bought another 639,564 shares (still No.9 shareholder)
Citicorp Nominees No.8 shareholder
bought 119,970 shares (now No.7 shareholder)

HSBC Custody Nominees No.4 shareholder
sold 48,292 shares (now No.5 shareholder)
HSBC-GSIECSA No.6 shareholder
sold 275,869 shares (still No.6 shareholder)
JP Morgan Nominees No.10 shareholder
sold 283,051 (now No.11 shareholder) 
HSBC A/C 2 No. 15 shareholder
Sold 394,391 shares (now No.19 shareholder)

New to the Top 20 shareholders are                                                                                  UBS Wealth Management with 1,695,600 shares (No.15 shareholder)                                                           Merrill lynch (Australia) Nominees with 1,099,967 shares (No.18 shareholder)

The 2 new Top 20 shareholders have displaced Ian Pamensky (AGS Company Secretary) and HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) A/C 2.


*Total Shares Held by Top 20 increased by 1,874,243 shares ie.from  162,746,230 shares to 164,620,473 shares. The percentage of shares held by the Top 20 has increased month on month from 46.49% on the 13 Nov 2006 to 60.36% on the 5th Dec 2007.*
The clever money is accumulating AGS shares.
dyor I hold a sizeable amount of AGS shares; this is not a recommendation to buy.
Good luck all holders the future looks bright and as the CEO said in one of his reports "the story is just unfolding".


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## eMark (6 December 2007)

Goodmorning.

Where do you get this information? Is there a website you can research this stock and other stocks re signifigant holders etc?

Thanks

eMark



wllmtrish said:


> *AGS TOP 20 SHAREHOLDER CHANGES AS OF 5th Dec 2007*
> Of the Top 20 shareholders, those that changed their share holdings between the
> 16th November and 5th Dec 07.
> National Nominees No.5 shareholder move up to No.2
> ...


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## wllmtrish (6 December 2007)

www.allianceresources.com.au/Top20.asp
This gives the latest Top 20 and I compare against previous records I have kept. 
regards wllmtrish


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## wllmtrish (19 December 2007)

The daily turnover of shares has been very low over the last few weeks. With bot trading seemingly capping the share price and world sharemarkets having the jitters, the big holders have been slowly taking advantage. I say slowly, so as not to spook the sellers who are few in number as indicated by the low daily turnover. Between the 5th Dec 07 and 17th Dec 07 the Total Shares Held by Top 20 increased by 452,719 shares ie.from 164,620,473 shares to 165,073,192 shares. The percentage of shares held by the Top 20 has increased month on month from 46.49% on the 13 Nov 2006 to 60.53% on the 17th Dec 2007.
The clever money is accumulating AGS shares.
dyor I hold a sizeable amount of AGS shares; this is not a recommendation to buy.
Good luck all holders the future looks bright and as the CEO said in one of his reports "the story is just unfolding".


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## grace (20 December 2007)

wllmtrish said:


> The daily turnover of shares has been very low over the last few weeks. With bot trading seemingly capping the share price and world sharemarkets having the jitters, the big holders have been slowly taking advantage. I say slowly, so as not to spook the sellers who are few in number as indicated by the low daily turnover. Between the 5th Dec 07 and 17th Dec 07 the Total Shares Held by Top 20 increased by 452,719 shares ie.from 164,620,473 shares to 165,073,192 shares. The percentage of shares held by the Top 20 has increased month on month from 46.49% on the 13 Nov 2006 to 60.53% on the 17th Dec 2007.
> The clever money is accumulating AGS shares.
> dyor I hold a sizeable amount of AGS shares; this is not a recommendation to buy.
> Good luck all holders the future looks bright and as the CEO said in one of his reports "the story is just unfolding".




Yes, I do like this one but don't currently hold.  My guess is that the new upgraded JORC should be nice, and this is expected by End Dec / early Jan.....could be what all of the buying up is all about.  Might rerate the stock.


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## Go Nuke (4 January 2008)

Another nice ann out!

Look out for some good results Jan. JORC due.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080104/pdf/00800580.pdf


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## grace (4 January 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Another nice ann out!
> 
> Look out for some good results Jan. JORC due.
> 
> http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080104/pdf/00800580.pdf




Buy AGS was on todays to do list.......  Should have done it yesterday!  Might wait for this news to rub off and hopefully before the new jorc.


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## wllmtrish (10 January 2008)

Between the 5th Dec 07 and 17th Dec 07 the Top 20 increases were as follows:-
*National Nominees bought *another 205,959 shares
*HSBC Nominees bought *another 110,972 shares
*ANZ Nominees bought *another 490,159 shares
*J P Morgan Nominees bought *another 405,120 shares
*Merrill Lynch bought *another 33,000 shares
*The Top 20 total holding has increased month on month *and between the 5th/17th Dec increased from 60.36 to 60.53%.
It will be interesting to see the next Top 20 update to hopefully once again confirm that the sp is being *manipulated by the bot trades to allow further accumulation by the big players.*
Good luck all AGS'ers and as *one of the directors stated at the AGM "the story is only just unfolding" *


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## Go Nuke (10 January 2008)

Yeah well I bought in at around $2+ about 1 year ago, so that bot trading is screwing me over then isn't it.

I guess insto's, like myself are betting on Uranium being the next big thing in the future.

AGS wont be as big as ERA (25% free carried on this project) but I guess the potential is still there to do quite well.


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## Go Nuke (10 January 2008)

Interesting little story from the Australian today about Mr Rann.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23029786-5005200,00.html


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## spooly74 (16 January 2008)

Four Mile Uranium Project - Concept Study

Love the timing of this ann ...  ...  I think


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## grace (20 January 2008)

wllmtrish said:


> Between the 5th Dec 07 and 17th Dec 07 the Top 20 increases were as follows:-
> *National Nominees bought *another 205,959 shares
> *HSBC Nominees bought *another 110,972 shares
> *ANZ Nominees bought *another 490,159 shares
> ...




It is good when a company supplies this info on their webside.  Wish all companies did!  What is "bot trades"?  Sorry for being naive.


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## wllmtrish (21 January 2008)

National Nom 9,104,527 increased holding by 875,989 shares
Citicorp Nom 6,402,346 increased holding by 246,495 shares
ANZ Nominees 5,807,728 increased holding by 53,804 shares
J P Morgan Nom 4,995,980 increased holding by 343,165 share
HSBC-GSI ECSA 6,661,945 decreased holding by 172,039 shares
HSBC Nominees 6,268,861 decreased holding by 19,889 shares
Merrill Lynch 1,109,578 decreased holding by 23,389 shares

Plenty of 'bot trading'/ accumulation still happening, which to me is a good sign for a prosperous future for those who are patient.

The Top 20 Total share holding has progressively increased as follows :-
13th Nov 06 53.51% 130,872,474 shares held by Top 20
17th Aug 07 56.33% 140,544,846 ditto
17th Sep 07 56.50% 140,976,932 ditto
12th Oct 07 56.74% 141,658,841 ditto
16th Nov 07 59.67% 162,746,230 ditto
17th Dec 07 60.53% 165,073,192 ditto
17th Jan 07 60.91% 166,117,124 ditto

To my way of thinking this means that the smart money has been accumulating shares month on month.
Hang in there AGSers,for me i am patient,it is just a matter of time.
As a director said at the AGM "the story is only just unfolding"
As always dyor, I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## grace (21 January 2008)

Took a position in this today at $1.15 to get in before the new updated JORC (due this month).  Personally think the new resource will be good from the nice high grades reported.  Good luck to everyone holding.


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## spooly74 (21 January 2008)

Grace, the initial JORC for Four Mile East is not due till April this year.

What expected this month is an Exploration target range for the whole of Four mile East and its needs to impress. 

Below is a grade map, although it doesn`t include the latest round of results.
Gives you an idea of what to expect in terms of tonnage, grade will be a little lower compared to FMW though.


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## wllmtrish (21 January 2008)

At present I have a long term view eg. Sept 2010 at which time I will review my holding. I would imagine the markets would have well and truely sorted themselves out AND AGS will be a producer of Gold and Uranium AND be re-rated accordingly.
The amount of shares to be traded on a daily basis is becoming less and less. There is 106,609,161 shares not held by the Top 20 shareholders AND there is a good chance long term holders outside of the Top 20 account for a decent percentage of those.
Of note is that HSBC Custody a/c 2 dropped out of the Top 20 and Rocky Rises re-entered the Top 20 with the same amount of shares (1M); so he disposed of none after he was last displaced from the Top 20.
Rocky Rises Pty Ltd is owned by Tony Lethlean (AGS non exec director/geologist).
Also of note, all other AGS board members have tightly held their shares including Ian Gandel who has not sold one of his 86.875150 Million shares.
Good luck all holders "the story is only just unfolding"
and lets hope AGS/Heathgate-Quasar Resources discover more Uranium Roll Fronts within their Arkaroola Joint Venture, now wouldn't that be something. 

Here is the change in holdings in the Top 20 17th Jan 08 :-
National Nom 9,104,527 increased holding by 875,989 shares
Citicorp Nom 6,402,346 increased holding by 246,495 shares
ANZ Nominees 5,807,728 increased holding by 53,804 shares
J P Morgan Nom 4,995,980 increased holding by 343,165 share
HSBC-GSI ECSA 6,661,945 decreased holding by 172,039 shares
HSBC Nominees 6,268,861 decreased holding by 19,889 shares
Merrill Lynch 1,109,578 decreased holding by 23,389 shares

Plenty of 'bot trading'/ accumulation still happening, which to me is a good sign for a prosperous future for those who are patient.

I had to correct a date so re-posting Top 20 Total share holding.

The Top 20 Total share holding has progressively increased as follows :-
13th Nov 06 53.51% 130,872,474 shares held by Top 20
17th Aug 07 56.33% 140,544,846 ditto
17th Sep 07 56.50% 140,976,932 ditto
12th Oct 07 56.74% 141,658,841 ditto
16th Nov 07 59.67% 162,746,230 ditto
17th Dec 07 60.53% 165,073,192 ditto
17th Jan 08 60.91% 166,117,124 ditto

To my way of thinking this means that the smart money has been accumulating shares month on month.
Hang in there AGSers,for me i am patient,it is just a matter of time.
As a director said at the AGM "the story is only just unfolding"
As always dyor, I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## grace (21 January 2008)

Thanks spooly and wllmtrish.  I am happy to hold.  Of all the aust uranium companies, I like this one the best.  Because of the high grade, it will be viable when others are not, if the price of uranium were to soften.  It is reassuring to know the top 20 are still buying.  I guess this becomes more and more illiquid, which works well when things are going up!


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## wllmtrish (21 January 2008)

Yes I agree grace, as they become more illiquid this will help the price turn around as the bot trade will have to walk the price up to encourage sellers into the market. With HSBC a/c 2 dropping out of the Top 20, they may well have a decent holding still but have dropped to less than the No.20 shareholder. The bot trading (client computers selling between each other, seen as small lots)endeavouring to obtain the best price possible. It seems to me like market manipulation but apparently is legal as far as the asx is concerned (that's my take on it anyhows).
dyor I hold AGS and good luck all holders no matter what your trading technique.


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## Go Nuke (21 January 2008)

I continue to hold AGS becasue i still believe in Uranium as a future source of fuel...but geez it hard to hold when you have paid over $2 for your shares!

Got a long way to go before I see any results...even though i think Ive been holding for nearly 12months now.


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## Go Nuke (21 January 2008)

A little snipet out the Australian today..

*Uranium glows again, after the fallout* _Robin Bromby | January 14, 2008 _
IT'S time for serious investors to get back into the uranium sector. Clients of Warwick Grigor's Far East Capital will today receive a 30-page report that flashes this big news and provides a form guide to a very big field.

Grigor says the bubble burst after the uranium price reached a "crazy" $US135 a pound but has now stabilised around $US90/lb. Demand will be underpinned by a British Government announcement last week that new nuclear power stations are on its agenda. 

Uranium sank into a bear market last year, but they are still energy stocks and it is time for investors to price them with that in mind, Grigor argues. 

Of the contenders, Grigor sees Alliance Resources as one of the lowest risks in uranium. Its deposit is in South Australia (no political risk) and the grade is "wonderfully high, guaranteeing huge profit margins". 

Then there's Contact Uranium with its Corachapi project in Peru. The report says the numbers on a heap leach operation there look "stunning" and suggest the shares are cheap. Curnamona Energy is given the nod as a genuine uranium explorer. 

Grigor is a little worried about Labor in Canberra. "It is hard to see the federal Labor Party making development of mines any easier, especially with Peter Garrett involved," he says. 

Meanwhile, two items worth noting are Uranium Exploration Australia, which has reported surface uranium near the high-grade Bigrlyi find in the NT, and Nimrodel Resources, which says it has received permission from the Kyrgyz Government to investigate 23 tailings deposits left over from Soviet uranium mining between 1946 and 1968.


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## wllmtrish (24 January 2008)

24 jan 08 top 20 total holding decreases by 0.09%
17jan08 top 20 total holding 166,117,124 shares 60.91%
24jan08 top 20 total holding 165,858,872 shares 60.82%
of note
ANZ Nominees increased their holding from 2.13% to 2,45% 
National Nominees reduced their holding from 3.34% to 3.3%
HSBC GSI ECSA reduced their holding from 2.44% to 2.38%
Citicorp reduced their holding from 2.35% to 2.31%
HSBC Nominees reduced their holding from 2.3% to 2.29%
J P Morgan reduced their holding from 1.83% to 1.58%
D A Brunt reduced their holding from 0.66% to 0.64%
UBS Wealth reduced their holding from 0.62% to 0.61%
I would like to think this is just due to the state of the world markets as a whole.
I still hold the faith in this companies future and hold onto my shares (hopefully the faith is not ill founded).
Good luck all AGS'ers
dyor My portfolio has gone down abt $200,000 over the last few months AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## grace (24 January 2008)

wllmtrish said:


> 24 jan 08 top 20 total holding decreases by 0.09%
> 17jan08 top 20 total holding 166,117,124 shares 60.91%
> 24jan08 top 20 total holding 165,858,872 shares 60.82%
> of note
> ...




I would have thought that when the shares get cheaper, time to top up rather than sell off?  (not that the moves are large)  Was there any dillution in relation to employee shares?


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## wllmtrish (25 January 2008)

Hi grace; There was no dilution and it will be interesting to see the next Top 20 update in maybe a week or 2. Cheers, GL all AGS'ers I am still confident in the companies future; patience is the key. Once the world markets settle down we should see AGS in a new light.
Only wish i was cashed up, there are lots of bargains out there at the moment.
dyor I hold AGS CUL CQT EMR


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## laurie (25 January 2008)

The only salvation for AGS right now is a *takeover* I have been on since .14c so I'm in no hurry but I think it's value will be between $1.20-$1.5 purely based on the 25% stake or better still separate the Uranium from the Gold sell the 25% and become a 100% gold producer with Maldon JMHO 

cheers laurie


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## wllmtrish (3 February 2008)

Heathgate's application to PIRSA for approval of an Extension of the Beverley Mine is moving closer to a decision.
*The deadline for replies from any parties wrt the application is 15th Feb 08.*With applications being fast tracked it should not take long for PIRSA to hand down their decision.
Good luck all holders, Quasar continue to firm up the size of this resource with continued drilling (no expense to AGS).


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## wllmtrish (20 February 2008)

Between the 5th Feb and 19 Feb 08 there has been a nett accumulation of shares by the Top 20 holders taking their Total Holding from 60.2% (164,187,514 shares) to 60.3% (164,455,027 shares) on issue. 
This is an indication of bot trading nett accumulation of 267,513 shares in the past 2 weeks. 
imho, Considering there has been a decent correction on the world markets it is an endorsement from the majority of the Top 20 Shareholders in the future of AGS. 
Of particular note is the confidence shown by our biggest shareholder who over the last couple of years has not sold one of his 86,875,150 shares. 
Our No.2 shareholder National nominees has picked up another 81,824 shares. 
Our No.11 shareholder J P Morgan has picked up another 617,051 shares. 
Of note is that our No.8 shareholder Citicorp off loaded 437,184 shares. 
dyor I hold AGS CQT CUL EMR GBG


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## skunkmonkey (17 March 2008)

AGS still dropping like a stone.  Now 69 cents.  This is now far worse than the August 2007 correction.  Is it just me or does it look like a level of support at 38 cents?


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## Go Nuke (17 March 2008)

Yeah i was going to say yesterday, I wonder if the Top 20 are still buying up at this price???

This is really bad for AGS...and me!
Looks like all my uranium hopefuls are crashing and burning.

AGS,ERN,(ROY in for their U as well as Ore) even BMN is looking bad.


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## skunkmonkey (20 March 2008)

Indeed, uranium has had some great press these last few months with clear moves toward building new reactors around the world and a backlash against using food sources to generate fuel.  

However, all miners are dropping and uranium miners are just in the same boat.  Great buying or the worst still to come?  PDN and AGS both look cheap, but at this rate they could be half that price this time next week.


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## skunkmonkey (26 March 2008)

Steady at 62 cents today. Uranium spot price also steady, at $74.  I guess the bottom line is that AGS are not a producer yet ... but man they sure have a big resource.


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## laurie (27 March 2008)

skunkmonkey said:


> Steady at 62 cents today. Uranium spot price also steady, at $74.  I guess the bottom line is that AGS are not a producer yet ... but man they sure have a big resource.




Well they may have a big resource but are you not forgetting its only 25% of that huge resource the good thing is though they are free carried until a decision to mine is made 

cheers laurie


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## grace (27 March 2008)

There has been some serious computerised trading lately on this one.  I was watching one day and it was flashing every half second on a sell of 70 cents and 70.5 cents.  Noone human could change the sell that fast.  It went for several minutes.  

There has been some very strange trading here, and I would certainly appreciate others' comments on that.  

April sees the jorc upgrade.


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## Go Nuke (18 April 2008)

Just thought I would post some old news I came across in the Australian from march 17th about AGS.

MEANWHILE, Alliance Resources says it expects to know before the end of the year whether its Four Mile project in South Australia will become Australia's fifth producing uranium mine. 

Alliance, which has a 25 per cent stake in Four Mile, with Heathgate affiliate Quasar owning the rest, believes that if in-situ leaching trials are successful, Four Mile could be up and running by 2010, with an initial throughput capacity of 1.5 million tonnes a year. 

Both Quasar and Alliance are hopeful that Four Mile might contain 21,500 tonnes of uranium oxide. 

_taken from The Australian dated March 14th 2008_


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## grace (24 April 2008)

Bit of buying coming back in here with the sellers drying up.  New jorc update due April 08.  Any day now I guess.  No reason to believe it should be bad based on those nice high grades released from drilling.  Brokers seem to be recommending clients to buy good uranium stocks again.  I see a few pushing this one.  Good luck to all holders.


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## Fab (24 April 2008)

Sounds good but then why is PDN down so much at the moment I would think PDN is a good one


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## grace (24 April 2008)

Gosh, gone into trading halt.  Were keen buyers this morning predicting an announcement soon, or was their leakage of good news?  Leakage of good news I'm guessing.  We'll find out next week.  Should be the jorc upgrade I would think.


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## Sean K (24 April 2008)

grace said:


> Gosh, gone into trading halt.  Were keen buyers this morning predicting an announcement soon, or was their leakage of good news?  Leakage of good news I'm guessing.  We'll find out next week.  Should be the jorc upgrade I would think.



Leaky boat, surely. 

And probably good news Grace. Expect a good update along with the Qtly I think. 

Good luck!


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## Fab (24 April 2008)

Yeap sounds like that insider trading going on there. Very weird specially if AGS comes out with good results for four miles.


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## Go Nuke (24 April 2008)

Oh i'm sure it will be good results further strengthening  Four mile.

But I think the sentiment towards Uranium will have to change before we see the share price of AGS (or any other U players) head north for a substantial period of time.

I'm still bullish that sentiments wont be too far away as everyone has taken such a keen interest in the environment these days.

All we need now is the Japanese to come up with a way to neutralize the radioactive waste.....and BANG...Uranium can join the likes of coal

As for your "leaky boat" comment kennas, it just seems to happen all too often on the ASX IMO.
Really stinks.... :disgust:unless your the one in the know.


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## laurie (24 April 2008)

Don't all get too excited remember the last JORC did not inspired the market at all and got hammered I was hoping it was for Maldon gold project its share of the U308 has to be at least 15,000Tonnes to move it back towards the $1.50 mark but that's JMHO 

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (26 April 2008)

Looks like an outstanding breakout here with some follow through to confirm. Some resistance around the $1 mark to be a hurdle. Nice to see a U explorer turning around, it's been a tough six months!!


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## Fab (27 April 2008)

The rumour I got is that AGS might be under a takeover offer. That is just a rumour but comes from good sources. I hope this is correct as I hold AGS. Might get U stoks moving up again. I am wondering if PDN might get the same as there  has been rumours about being a takeover target for a while


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## Sean K (27 April 2008)

Only from the JV partner. What's their name? Had a few too many..Can't be a takeover without their approval and or participation...


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## laurie (27 April 2008)

Fab said:


> The rumour I got is that AGS might be under a takeover offer. That is just a rumour but comes from good sources. I hope this is correct as I hold AGS. Might get U stoks moving up again. I am wondering if PDN might get the same as there  has been rumours about being a takeover target for a while




Well if the update is good news then the chances of a T/O is remote lets face it why wait when the sp was in its mid 60's if the update is good then $1.5+ is possible and the decision to mine has not been made so they are still free carried which will attract a premium if it hits $2 with 278M shares fully diluted AGS market cap will be $556M so what price is their gold holding

cheers laurie


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## Go Nuke (27 April 2008)

Fab said:


> The rumour I got is that AGS might be under a takeover offer. That is just a rumour but comes from good sources. I hope this is correct as I hold AGS. Might get U stoks moving up again. I am wondering if PDN might get the same as there  has been rumours about being a takeover target for a while




Oh god. i kinda hope that there isn't a takeover of AGS.

I paid over $2 for my shares so wont be accepting anything too low for Alliance.
I'm still paying the price for the PDN takeover of SMM

I should have sold that dog right then and there when PDN sp was alot higher.

But we live and learn i suppose.

* i think its just another resource update though*


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## laurie (28 April 2008)

Not sure what they meant in the announcement "48hrs" is that including Anzac day if not then it must be Tuesday when they release the qrtly and upgrade 

cheers laurie


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## laurie (28 April 2008)

Announcement out great news mining to start late 2009 89% recovery possible leach trial off the agenda due to high grades toot toot here we come S.A. 

cheers laurie


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## Fab (28 April 2008)

What is happening now? The share price is going down. I thought it was a good announcement but maybe not the jorc ressource announcement expected by many.


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## reece55 (28 April 2008)

Fab said:


> What is happening now? The share price is going down. I thought it was a good announcement but maybe not the jorc ressource announcement expected by many.




Buy the rumour sell the fact as always Fab...... 

I won't speak yet, let's have a look at the chart on the close....

Cheers


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## laurie (28 April 2008)

For the love of me I'm starting to think money in the bank is less stressfull than watching AGS trying to break its chains that has held it down for so long go figure 

cheers laurie


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## Go Nuke (28 April 2008)

laurie said:


> For the love of me I'm starting to think money in the bank is less stressfull than watching AGS trying to break its chains that has held it down for so long go figure
> 
> cheers laurie




LOL. laurie I thought money in the bank was better...oooh about 6 months ago
Though i didnt put any there.

yeah good announcement that they are skipping the testing and going straight for the mining licence. I would think that mining by late 2009, they are probably looking to be well ramped up close to their maximum output of 4.5Mil lbs/ yr within the year or 2 following.

Isn't that when they reckon that there will be alot more nuclear power stations coming online?
I would not be suprised at all to see Australia building one or looking very hard at it by then too.

But...yes typicaly the share price started out well the went to S*%@ by the end of the day.
Actually it was a pretty bad day all round and Ive no idea what was dragging it down.
We had 2 good days on the DOW to catch up on and for some reason the ASX almost ends up in the red


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## Fab (28 April 2008)

I actually thought this annoucement was not bad news at all. So why did it go down? Not the takeover rumour I heard about but neither Jorc resources estimate but still ok news.Maybe people got disappointed because they were expecting a better annoucement but that is not a reason to dump the stock.
Volume was not high so.


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## Black Range (5 May 2008)

I have chosen AGS Alliance Resources for my Uranium pick for 2008 & beyond, & here's an outline for my decision.

And to back my judgment I managed to top up with a further 65,000 shares at .92 on last weeks close, so fingers crossed that we see a rally in share price next week & beyond, actually couldn't believe my luck in the final Hour of Friday's Trading.

Seems many have still failed to understand Four Mile West exceptionally High JORC Resource Grade of .37% (3700ppm) .05% (500 ppm) Cut off & extremely Low Forecast Production ISL Costs of around $10.00 P/Lb. & most importantly Free carried by Quasar.


Fantastic High Grade Intercepts continue at Four Mile East, Including :

5.40 m @ 0.85% 8500ppm pU3O8 (AK370)
1.20 m @ 1.10% 11000ppm pU3O8 (AK371)
2.40 m @ 0.62% 6200ppm pU3O8 (AK372)
4.00 m @ 0.26% 2600ppm pU3O8 (AK373)
5.30 m @ 0.21% 2100ppm pU3O8 (AK376)
2.50 m @ 0.71% 7100ppm pU3O8 (AK382)
2.50 m @ 0.90% 9000ppm pU3O8 (AK386)
4.50 m @ 0.47% 4700ppm pU3O8 (AK395)
1.50 m @ 1.13% 11300ppm pU3O8 (AK398)
2.60 m @ 0.53% 5300ppm pU3O8 (AK442)
1.85 m @ 1.94% 19400ppm pU3O8 (AK445)
5.20 m @ 0.33% 3300ppm pU3O8 (AK447)
4.70 m @ 0.69% 6900ppm pU3O8 (AK447)
1.10 m @ 1.53% 15300ppm pU3O8 (AK453)
2.85 m @ 0.84% 8400ppm pU3O8 (AK470)
3.85 m @ 0.35% 3500ppm pU3O8 (AK477)
2.35 m @ 0.60% 6000ppm pU3O8 (AK482)
2.90 m @ 0.44% 4400ppm pU3O8 (AK487)
3.75 m @ 0.28% 2800ppm pU3O8 (AK489)
4.10 m @ 1.69% 16900ppm pU3O8 (AK505)
2.10 m @ 0.61% 6100ppm pU3O8 (AK519)
2.60 m @ 0.62% 6200ppm pU3O8 (AKC006)
0.70 m @ 1.67% 16700ppm pU3O8 (AKC009)

4.0 m @ 0.43% 4300ppm pU3O8 (AK545)
1.4 m @ 0.97% 9700ppm pU3O8 (AK548)
2.9 m @ 0.49% 4900ppm pU3O8 (AK563)
1.8 m @ 1.09% 10900ppm pU3O8 (AK565)
3.2 m @ 0.82% 8200ppm pU3O8 (AK567)
1.9 m @ 0.60% 6000ppm pU3O8 (AKC016)
2.5 m @ 1.15% 11500ppm pU3O8 (AKC018)
0.7 m @ 2.51% 25100ppm pU3O8 (AKC019)
1.3 m @ 0.94% 9400ppm pU3O8 (AKC025)


2.1 m @ 1.84% 18400ppm pU3O8 (AK586)
2.2 m @ 0.46% 4600ppm pU3O8 (AK586)
3.9 m @ 0.57% 5700ppm pU3O8 (AK594)
2.3 m @ 0.60% 6000ppm pU3O8 (AK598)
3.7 m @ 1.12% 11200ppm pU3O8 (AK600)
3.2 m @ 0.37% 3700ppm pU3O8 (AK601)
2.8 m @ 0.57% 5700ppm pU3O8 (AK603)
2.5 m @ 1.00% 10000ppm pU3O8 (AK604)
1.3 m @ 1.14% 11400ppm pU3O8 (AK605)
1.4 m @ 2.09% 20900ppm pU3O8 (AK609)
4.2 m @ 0.41% 4100ppm pU3O8 (AK614)
7.6 m @ 0.26% 2600ppm pU3O8 (AKC029)

You may well ask what do the above grades mean !!! well many junior uranium companies would rather you didn't know this. That's why they spend most of the time waving their arms about the number of pounds they have, while mumbling under their breath when it comes time to discuss grade. But a quick calculation - using the current uranium spot price of $65.00 Per Lb., with a comparison to the gold grades that most resource investors are familiar with -- shows how grade affects the economics of a deposit:

0.03% U3O8 = $40 a tonne/rock (equivalent to 0.045 oz/tonne gold)
0.3% U3O8 = $400 a tonne/rock (0.45 oz/tonne gold)
3% U3O8 = $4000 a tonne rock (4.5 oz/tonne gold)
30% U3O8 = $40,000 a tonne/rock (45 oz/tonne gold)

When you consider AGSs Four Mile West Deposit has been calculated at an average grade of .37% 3700ppm (Resource calculated at a cut-off at .05% 500ppm), its no wonder the Resource has been classified as World Class.
In Comparison Bannermans Goanikontes Jorc resource of 72Mill Lbs has been calculated at an average grade of .023% 230ppm and (calculated at a cut-off at .01% 100ppm)


The previously reported Jorced Four Mile West Resource covers less than 20% of the potential Mineralization with an initial resource expected for Four Mile West & East, of around 70 to 80Mill Lbs in the 3rd Qrt of 2008, with a potential of attaining a resource of beyond 120Mill Lbs

AGS will very likely have two operations in progress over the coming 18 Months namely their Maldon Gold project & Four Mile Arkaroola J/V project with Heathgate/Quasar..
.
.
Cheers to all AGS Holders from grant64 
.
Special Note : Is that the Long term Uranium Contract Price has recently fallen last week by $5.00 to $90.00 P/Lb, with the Current Spot price unchanged at $65.00 P/Lb.
.


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## grace (5 May 2008)

Welcome aboard black range!  Yep, the only U308 I own too, and for the same reasons.  Hopefully it is wise minds thinking alike


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## Black Range (7 May 2008)

Thanks grace
Today has seen an Excellent Presentation  By Alliances CEO Steve Johnston

Here's some more facts that Steve, seems to have left out, & that is to focus on Heathgates extremely efficient World class Production facility at the Beverly Mine. Apart from that he did an excellent presentation

This outlines just how efficient Heathgates Beverly Mine Production facilities must be when they were able to operate profitably during the first initial years of depressed Uranium Prices ( Commercial production began In 2001) Here's an outline of the value of U3O8 during the production years, from 2001 to 2005. Check This Out,

_____________________________

29-Jan-01 $7.25
25-Jun-01 $8.90
31-Dec-01 $9.60
_____________________________

28-Jan-02 $9.70
4-Jun-02 $9.90
30-Dec-02 $10.20
_____________________________

27-Jan-03 $10.20
30-Jun-03 $10.9
09-Dec-03 $14.50
_____________________________

26-Jan-04 $15.50
28-Jun-04 $18.50
27-Dec-04 $20.70
_____________________________

31-Jan-05 $21.00

_____________________________

Is it any wonder I have no doubt that the recently quoted production costs at AGS’s Four Mile Project will be within the stated costs of $10.00 P/Lb.

********** Current Uranium Spot Price $63.00 P/Lb **********
******* Current Long term Contract Price $90.00 P/Lb *******

Here’s the link for all Historical U3O8 Prices from 1987 through to 2006 http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_prices_mth-end.html
.
.
.
Cheers to all AGS Holders from grant64
.
.


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## laurie (7 May 2008)

Why do I get the funny feeling that AGS will head back down to .90cents it's happened every time we had good news 

cheers laurie


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## hangseng (18 May 2008)

Things are beginning to hot up with AGS

Major uranium mine a step closer
May 18, 2008 
SOUTH Australia is a step closer to having a new world-class uranium mine, Premier Mike Rann says

An application has been lodged to develop the Four Mile deposit about 10km north west of the Beverley uranium mine in northern South Australia, Mr Rann said. 

"The Four Mile deposit, which was discovered just back in 2005, is considered one of the most significant uranium discoveries anywhere in the world in the last 25 years - the biggest find since Olympic Dam,'' Mr Rann said. 

"I understand the company is seeking to break the record for the time between the discovery of the resource in 2005 and production by having an operating mine by early 2010. 

Although the mine size is not as big as the proposed Olympic Dam expansion, the grade of the uranium is 10 times bigger than the uranium found at Olympic Dam, which is good news.''

The application was lodged by Quasar, an affiliate of Beverley operator Heathgate Resources which is in a joint venture with Alliance Resources to develop the Four Mile resource. 

The new mine would employ about 200 people and process the uranium at the nearby Beverley mine.

source: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23718874-12377,00.html

Also it seems no AGS stock is currently held for short selling.
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


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## Fab (19 May 2008)

Looks like this stock is hotting up again. Great news released today. I would not be surprise to see it get back to its high very soon


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## spooly74 (19 May 2008)

Fab said:


> Great news released today. I would not be surprise to see it get back to its high very soon




Hold your horses Fab.

I dont see old time highs being taken out very soon. Although the news was good it is hardly surprising.
Plenty of resistance on the charts at 1.50 to get through first and finding solid support around this mark will be very encouraging considering the U spot is now $60.

Considering the success of Field leach trials in the past by Qasar and the time from mining lease application to production (about 2.5 years from memory) I would say there is little doubt that this will be the next new U producer in Aus


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## Go Nuke (19 May 2008)

It certainly is good to see AGS getting back up there.

I agree we all know that this JV will be the new U mine in Aus, but its just been the sentiment of Uranium keeping the price down.

Happy to hold AGS for some years to come, though it will be nice to at least break even sometime in the near future with this one

Goodluck to all the Uranium longs like myself

PS, I see all the U players are having a awesome day really.

BMN up 10+ %
PDN up 9+ %
EME up 14+ %
DYL up 22+ % 

and the list goes on...except for ERN of course


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## laurie (19 May 2008)

I assume it's all in the small print but if they have applied for a mining license to the S.A. Government and if approved [if not already] then that signals AGS free carried status comes to an end  so any construction cost will have to be meet by AGS [25%] so one's must expect a spp to raise capital for the construction or are they going to use existing processing plant?

cheers laurie


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## ColB (19 May 2008)

Hey, Black Range, good pick up at .92 the other week (small parcel!!!).  You'd have to be happy with that.  Got in at 1.325 this morning after reading this thread over the weekend so already off to a good start after one day.  Almost sold half for immediate gain of $700 but reckon with 4 times as many buyers as sellers can only hope for for continued SP rise albeit a tad slowerrrr.
Good fortune to all those in for the long term.  Thanks again Grace, it'd be nice to see it cruise along like LNC.  CB


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## spooly74 (19 May 2008)

laurie said:


> I assume it's all in the small print but if they have applied for a mining license to the S.A. Government and if approved [if not already] then that signals AGS free carried status comes to an end  so any construction cost will have to be meet by AGS [25%] so one's must expect a spp to raise capital for the construction or are they going to use existing processing plant?
> 
> cheers laurie




To my knowledge laurie they are free carried until a decision to mine has been made.
If/ when they get the permit Alliance (with Quasar) will still have to do enviromental studies, BFS, PFS etc ...
Only after this process will a decision be made to go ahead and mine ... then they`ll need a cap raising.

I suspect they`ll pump to the existing plant but it would require an upgrade.


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## laurie (19 May 2008)

spooly74 said:


> To my knowledge laurie they are free carried until a decision to mine has been made.
> If/ when they get the permit Alliance (with Quasar) will still have to do enviromental studies, BFS, PFS etc ...
> Only after this process will a decision be made to go ahead and mine ... then they`ll need a cap raising.
> 
> I suspect they`ll pump to the existing plant but it would require an upgrade.




Thanks spooly hmmm by then hopefully we may have our first gold pour  .... well one can hope

cheers laurie


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## Black Range (20 May 2008)

ColB Yes managed to top up nicely with a further 62,000 at .92, giving me a comfortable 125,000 Holding until Production. Been holding onto AGS since the 25cent Days & therefore feel very at ease holding this one for the Long Term.
.
.
.
Cheers from grant64/Black Range  had a very nice Day Yesterday !!!
.
ColB might pay to do some research on BLR..... Big Risk With Potential large returns, check the BLR thread for some fast track Research.
.
.
.


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## coolcricket (27 May 2008)

Nice move for AGS today. Closed at $1.51, up 13.5 cents or almost 10%. Possibly the mining lease application and associated statement by Rann filtering through the market??? Although that was fair while ago (19th).
Got a few back late last year at an average of $1.29.  Looks like a really good long term buy.


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## mancini (16 June 2008)

Hi,

I'm just starting off in shares and I've really been interested in Uranium so I guessed AGS might be a good starting point for me, I just have a couple of newbie questions:

- Not knowing how big business operates exactly, having a joint venture with heathgate, how are profits distributed?  Does Heathgate take the 'cream' by operating the processing plants and leaves AGS with leftovers?

- What is this JORC that I keep reading about?

- How does AGS compare with PepinNini?  Does AGS have far bigger reserves and/or cleaner grades of U?

Wish me luck as I dive in the deep end...

Cheers.


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## Tarna (12 July 2008)

Im new here so be gentle,,, what's happening at Maldon? heard that they are close to x-cutting into the ore body,, anyone?


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## ChomChom (29 August 2008)

Good news for the australian Uranium miners and AGS in particular

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24259286-5005200,00.html



> *Uranium mine gets nod from Peter Garrett*
> Matthew Franklin, Chief political correspondent | August 29, 2008
> THE man who made his fortune singing about his distaste for uranium mining yesterday gave his personal approval for the expansion of South Australia's Beverley uranium mine.
> 
> ...




What do you think?


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## Go Nuke (29 August 2008)

Ah so thats why AGS is having a good day.

Hmm, i'm confused though.
He's approved an expansion for Beverley but it says towards the bottom

 "_Mr Garrett said the approval would make little difference to operations at the Beverley processing plant and production output would remain within the existing approved level of 1500tonnes. _

So does that mean they have a licence to mine up to that amount and are currently mining less than that?
Obviously I have no idea how much Uranium the Beverley mine produces. (And cant be bothered finding out right now)

And I see a story today about the greenies trying to put pressure on the government NOT to sell our Uranium to Russia becasue of the goings on in Georgia.
I don't think they will get far though....Money talks.

And a story also from todays paper about mining U in W.A.
Bet those guys who bought the Kintyre project might look like mugs soon...eh kennas 

http://news.theage.com.au/national/wa-parties-battle-over-uranium-mining-20080826-42tc.html

I'm just waiting for more tie in's in regards to people with Nuclear = less CO2.

Its like if you want something done and work and you don't get anywhere with it...just call it a "Health & Safety" issue.
Lots of attention is paid then


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## ChomChom (29 August 2008)

Seen on another forum: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single50.asp?fid=1&tid=734946&msgno=3257964

For what it's worth...



> [...] stated that Heathgate were expanding the Beverley mine and that Garrett had approved the application, it then went on to say that a 2nd application has already been lodged by Heathgate's for their affiliate company Qasar for development of the Beverley Four Mile deposit, which is AGS
> 
> Sorry to spoil the party but have to wait a little longer, of course the approval yerterday is a big plus for obvious reasons


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## laurie (30 August 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Hmm, i'm confused though.
> He's approved an expansion for Beverley but it says towards the bottom
> 
> "_Mr Garrett said the approval would make little difference to operations at the Beverley processing plant and production output would remain within the existing approved level of 1500tonnes. _




simple really maybe they are running out of ore and require B4 Mile to boost it back up to 1500T

cheers laurie


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## skunkmonkey (18 September 2008)

$0.65 today!  What a spectacular fall given the Liberals in WA.  Here's hoping for 70 cents by the end of the year and fingers crossed, it might get back up to a dollar one day


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## Sean K (13 October 2008)

Significant bounce today, after being significantly crucified on Friday. Should have seen that coming...

One of the few uranium hopefulls to actually get to a decision to mine.

25 September 2008 
FOUR MILE URANIUM PROJECT - DECISION TO MINE

 Feasibility Study recommends development of the Four Mile project using In-Situ Recovery (ISR) methods as the optimum basis for development.
 Uranium concentrate production proposed to commence in January 2010, ramping up to 3M lbs U3O8 per annum within three months.
 It is proposed to construct a satellite pre-processing plant close to the Four Mile deposits to recover uranium from ISR mining solutions for transport to the existing Beverley uranium processing facility for further processing, drying and packaging of uranium concentrate.


Similar looking chart to a lot of other explorers hitting 3 year lows on Friday.

$0.75 ish looks to be a hurdle on the way back up, if it occurs.


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## Go Nuke (13 October 2008)

Well the bounce HAD to come for AGS because as u stated Kennas, its at least going to make it to the mine stage in a great mineral rich and politicaly stable country of Aus

It was just looking yay too cheap.Actually Ags and Bmn are right next to each other on my watchlist and they were following each other price wise for a time there.

Not sure as to the difference with shares on issue between the 2 but still vastly different companies considering the price.

Are u enjoying cocktails at the moment Kennas?
I am, in Cairns 
Posting these from my mobile phone is so slow


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## Sean K (3 November 2008)

Nice bottomy looking thing happening there.

Breaking up, maybe.

For the minute.

Can we trust any break at the moment?


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## spooly74 (3 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Nice bottomy looking thing happening there.
> 
> Breaking up, maybe.
> 
> ...




Looks good atm and I think the ann this morning was prudent in the current environment.

This stock hates gaps though and loves to come back and fill em. Some improvement in the U spot could build a solid support base or continued confirmation of the high grade resource at FMwest would do the trick.


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## maungatapu (3 November 2008)

spooly74 said:


> Looks good atm and I think the ann this morning was prudent in the current environment.
> 
> This stock hates gaps though and loves to come back and fill em. Some improvement in the U spot could build a solid support base or continued confirmation of the high grade resource at FMwest would do the trick.




I reckon it will come back and fill in the gaps. Never a good sign rising on decling volume. Sept spot price U3O8 $US65  Oct 24 spot price $US45. What is needed is an increase in U3O8 price and the Ozzy $ to stay as it is. Still a good stock to put in the bottom draw.


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## maungatapu (3 November 2008)

http://www.stockhouse.com/Community-News/2008/October/21/When-is-the-uranium-price-going-up.
Found this article very interesting. looking at it from buyers & sellers point of view. Also the dismantling of US atomic weapons and dumping uranium on the market. Something that not many people realise is going to happen.


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## Sean K (5 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Nice bottomy looking thing happening there.
> 
> Breaking up, maybe.



Breaking 60 looked important.

Nice move, but probably more related to general market recovery.

Would have been a nice pick up at 30c....


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## maungatapu (12 November 2008)

Managing director John Borshoff told AAP that he was nonplussed by variations in the spot market price for uranium, predicting it would rebound from $US46 a pound this week to $US90 per pound in 2009.

Mr Borshoff said the price had started to recover from recent lows of $US44 per pound and would approach $US60 per pound by the end of the year.

He said the uranium spot market was very small and gave consumers the opportunity to top up their inventories.

The vast majority of uranium sold through long-term contracts.

Supply would be tight in the foreseeable future, with "almost all major companies failing to achieve targets", he said.

Mr Borshoff said uranium was one of the few commodities where demand "hadn't changed that much".

There were signs that India's demand would strengthen, while the outlook for demand from China, Russia and Middle East was also positive.

"Most of the growth is coming from those areas, and even the Americans are not backing off," Mr Borshoff 

Interesting comments from the MD of Paladin.


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## Sean K (13 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Breaking 60 looked important.
> 
> Nice move, but probably more related to general market recovery.
> 
> Would have been a nice pick up at 30c....



Cripes 60 didn't last long.

Back on the downtrend quickly.

POU needs do a U....

Found this brief summary of AGS in the email this am.

Alliance Resources (AGS) - $0.60
November 2008
· AGS has a 25% free carried interest in the potentially very
large and high grade Four Mile Uranium Project located
within eight kilometres of Beverley SA, one of Australia’s
three producing uranium mines.
· Development of the Four Mile Project using In-Situ Recovery
(ISR) methods is proposed to commence in January 2010 at
an initial rate of 2.6Mlbs of U3O8, increasing to 3Mlbs per
annum after three months.
· Underground operations at the Maldon Gold Project in
Victoria have been suspended. The decision has been
made in light of the deteriorating global capital markets; the
Board considers it prudent to preserve the company’s cash
reserves in preparation for the upcoming development of the
Four Mile Uranium Project.
· Drilling of Four Mile West continued with a number of
significant uranium intercepts, including an extension to high
grade mineralisation in the western part of the deposit.
Mineralisation remains open to the west, north and south.
High grade mineralisation was also encountered in the far
western portion of the deposit, confirming the potential for a
significantly larger resource.
· The company has appointed a new Managing Director, Mr
Patrick Mutz. He has more than 30 years experience in the
international uranium industry and was previously Managing
Director of Uranium Exploration Australia Ltd. Prior to this,
he was the MD of Operations at Heathgate Resources Pty
Ltd and therefore has first-hand experience of the Beverley
operations.
· Cash reserves total $20.1m at the end of the September
quarter.
Recommendation: Buy
AGS has funds available to finance the majority of its share
of the initial capital cost of the Four Mile Project. Shares
are trading at a significant discount to assessed
value.


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## Sean K (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Cripes 60 didn't last long.
> 
> Back on the downtrend quickly.



Perhaps these charts don't mean a lot, because the last potential break out mentioned died in the arese rather quickly.

We're now looking at another one, with cracking those red lines the key imo.

Having ridden this from around 15c to $2.50 previously, would love to jump on the next break up. 

(doubt POU will go back to $150 like it did again though, so maybe not...)


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## champ2003 (26 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Perhaps these charts don't mean a lot, because the last potential break out mentioned died in the arese rather quickly.
> 
> We're now looking at another one, with cracking those red lines the key imo.
> 
> ...




Hi Kennas,

On both the 1yr and 2yr charts that i have the downtrend has definitely been broken.

JORC upgrade coming up as well as scoping study by AGS. The price of U will tick up soon as well IMO.

Another thing regarding spot price. AGS will be the next U producer and so we now go by the long term price of U which is what their contracts are based on.

All good for AGS.

Cheers!


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## Sean K (23 April 2009)

Almost a month later and she's still butting up against this resistance. Although, maybe this horizontal lines a bit higher...

An EW'er might see 5 waves in the downward trend, unless 3 is the shortest. Either makes me wonder whether EW is bogus, or the chart lies. 

Looks even more bottomish now.

But, who knows.....


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## Sean K (4 May 2009)

kennas said:


> Almost a month later and she's still butting up against this resistance. Although, maybe this horizontal lines a bit higher...
> 
> Looks even more bottomish now.
> 
> But, who knows.....



Looks like it's about to pop. Still needs to break 75 probably.

I've been waiting for overall market pullback...

Maybe that was it...


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## Sean K (20 May 2009)

I put this in the pennants and flags thread I think, as it's a serial pennant and flagger. Serial!

What an outstanding run since the bottom.

Could have made a bucket on this baby playing pennants. 

Can't keep going like this though you'd think. There is always a top.


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## Sean K (26 May 2009)

Eeeeeek!

Cap raising at 68 and 60c, while the stock is running at 85c.

Eeeeeek!

Haven't read too many details, but for tech traders, eeeeek!

Unless there's an oversell and you grab the knife.

Eeeeeek!


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## slig (15 July 2009)

Announcement on Four Mile today, looks like the project is go go go 

Been some good buy volume already, very positive news


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## pb112 (13 December 2009)

Its been a while since the last post on this thread. On Dec 15th the 1st court hearing takes place so should have some news the next day or 2 after this. For those who did not attend the AGM, the annual report on the AGS site is good reading. http://www.allianceresources.com.au/IRM/content/home.html.
Some upward movement in the share price over the past week has been positive for AGS as well.


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## jonojpsg (5 December 2011)

Anyone got any thoughts on this??  Settlement over FMC looks possible from last announcement?  Last real data was optimisation study which looked pretty good - $200m capital cost for standalone 5MTpa plant with op costs of $21/tonne giving a good $20/t margin ($100m per year).  Give 25% of that to AGS and they are well undervalued given that they have about 10c per share in cash and only just ticked up to 16.5c today - MC of $60m-ish at todays price.

Anyone know whether FMC is likely to get built ever?


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## jonojpsg (5 December 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Anyone got any thoughts on this??  Settlement over FMC looks possible from last announcement?  Last real data was optimisation study which looked pretty good - $200m capital cost for standalone 5MTpa plant with op costs of $21/tonne giving a good $20/t margin ($100m per year).  Give 25% of that to AGS and they are well undervalued given that they have about 10c per share in cash and only just ticked up to 16.5c today - MC of $60m-ish at todays price.
> 
> Anyone know whether FMC is likely to get built ever?




Looks like Mr Market likes it - pushing 19.5c atm - I'm in now, first trade in a while


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## namrog (5 December 2011)

At the moment  there's  103 buyers for 4,777,257 units and 18 sellers for 475,886 units .

So looking good .


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## marioland (5 December 2011)

Soooo sooo goood!


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## jonojpsg (5 December 2011)

namrog said:


> At the moment  there's  103 buyers for 4,777,257 units and 18 sellers for 475,886 units .
> 
> So looking good .




Mmmm, sellers drying up quick smart   Hopefully will see a good night on Wall Street/Europe tonight and tomorrow will be a quick run through the sellers and another 10c jump!!

Anyone know offhand what the NPV of FMC to AGS was/is?  (gotta love TLAs [Three Letter Acronyms])


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## laurie (18 February 2012)

Hopefully Tuesday will tell the full story when the trading halt is lifted


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## Boggo (18 February 2012)

laurie said:


> Hopefully Tuesday will tell the full story when the trading halt is lifted




The writing has been on the wall for a while now on this stock laurie, something has supported the run to now.

The fundamentals are about to confirm what the chart has already told us, never the less a stop is in place just in case.

My previous reference to AGS...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23881&p=684929&viewfull=1#post684929


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## mr. jeff (20 February 2012)

I have watched this stock for 3 months and have not made an entry due to the large up moves which I considered too large to risk entering after. Turns out that was foolish. Always wary of chasing and then miss out on the continuing move. If anyone can offer insight into how to judge this, then please do so. In hindsight there were several levels which offered reasonable entries, but I don't think that is so apparent at the time. 

Nevertheless, anyone that has participated in that amazing run of AGS, well done.

1. Can it break that high ? 
2. What does it have that is so special (is it just the completion of court action?)


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## Chasero (20 February 2012)

Today's movement is absolutely crazy...

I'm too scared to enter on parabolic movements. 

Just like when MAD was @ 50c...  or now when AGS is @ 56c..

Well done for all the holders


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## sammy84 (20 February 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> View attachment 46132
> 
> 
> I have watched this stock for 3 months and have not made an entry due to the large up moves which I considered too large to risk entering after.




I'm the same as you. Has been on my watch list for a while. Each up move has been too parabolic for me to enter after and each retracement hasn't been what I consider orderly. Looking at the chart in hindsight I guess there were some consolidation points to enter. Nevertheless, I wouldn't enter now as the stock seem too far into its stage 2 cycle (which means I'm probably going to continue to which this stock rise on the sidelines).


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## laurie (20 February 2012)

Can't deal that way that's why I am an investor rather than a trader I try to get in on the bottom


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## pavilion103 (20 February 2012)

I am another on who had it on the watch list. Well supported around the 30 cents. 

I'd actually entered on the 25/1 when volume spiked but was stopped out a few days later. 

Even the no supply day on 16/12 could have offered good entry.


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## laurie (21 February 2012)

IMHO there must be more news on the JV.... the last news only dealt with the permit/mineral lease we still have the M&D conduct to sort out otherwise the holding of the 25% v 75% might change as a result of the ruling


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## jonojpsg (24 February 2012)

mr. jeff said:


> View attachment 46132
> 
> 
> I have watched this stock for 3 months and have not made an entry due to the large up moves which I considered too large to risk entering after. Turns out that was foolish. Always wary of chasing and then miss out on the continuing move. If anyone can offer insight into how to judge this, then please do so. In hindsight there were several levels which offered reasonable entries, but I don't think that is so apparent at the time.
> ...




1.  Interesting to see that it didn't break the high - at least not yet!  Wait and see...
2.  So special - A quarter share in a project that basically just needs to be constructed and start producing - with a margin of $30/lb and production of 5m lbs pa gives $$150m a year or $37m to Alliance.  Give a PE for emerging uranium producer of say 10 should put market cap at $350m ish or about twice current.  

Obvious risks around capital and operating cost rises since FS was done 4 years ago!

Still holding from 19.5c


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## Chasero (12 March 2012)

Currently 36c from it's 55c highs few weeks back.

What's going on?


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## Chasero (19 April 2012)

In hindsight,

It looks like we all caught a very lucky break for not chasing the highs.

(unless we did a quick sell)

Looks to have bounced off 25c and consolidating now between 26-28c.

Thoughts? Might be a good entry @ 25c if you can get it.. a lot of people would be trapped long above this price I would imagine.


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## mr. jeff (19 April 2012)

Chasero said:


> In hindsight,
> 
> It looks like we all caught a very lucky break for not chasing the highs.
> 
> ...




Perhaps yes, but not until it clears that 30c level and proves it will hold it.  




At the moment we could see some consolidation under 30c, although it may make a false break above shortly judging by the current squeeze. If you were after a 10% move then you may see it shortly, but on the balance nothing too exciting yet.


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## marioland (27 April 2012)

10 year mineral lease granted, that will drive the price above 40c surely.


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## Chasero (27 April 2012)

marioland said:


> 10 year mineral lease granted, that will drive the price above 40c surely.




Huge move today. Already at 37.5c. Up ~17%


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## AntN (5 December 2012)

$8...?

waiting...waiting....


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## Justthinkin (11 December 2012)

I have a pretty significant investment in this terror ... entry was based on a fairly potent judgement which suggested the JV partner may have been a little more negotiable. But alas Sir Yorok!!!

It is I think so close to suspension because of the endless diatribe re confidentiality, thin trading volumes and very evident personal agendas.  I'm am really tempted to push the suspension line because somebody needs to pooh or get off the pot I think...

This is a tough one and I do share the head banging emoticon!!!!

Another day!


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## greggles (18 January 2018)

AGS has really taken off this morning. Up 5.5c to 16.5c so far today. 

Yesterday the company announced some good drilling results. Here are the details:






Some good hits there. 15m at 18.21 g/t is pretty impressive. Could be a lot of potential here.


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## greggles (20 August 2019)

Takeover bid for Alliance Resources announced yesterday. Gandel Metals Pty Ltd has bid 14c cash per share for all of the fully paid ordinary shares in AGS, valuing it at approximately $21.43 million.

There are rumblings of dissatisfaction by AGS shareholders on other forums so it looks like this might be a hard sell by Gandel.

AGS currently trading at 14.5c, half a cent over the bid price, indicating that the bid by Gandel is undervaluing the company.


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## barney (21 August 2019)

greggles said:


> Takeover bid for Alliance Resources announced yesterday.




I noticed AGS up today but didn't look into why …   

After a bit of reading some interesting stats come to light.

Abbotsleigh Pty Ltd is AGS major shareholder

Gandel Metals is a subsidiary of Abbotsleigh and therefore has a 32% voting power in AGS

Ian Gandel is the sole Director of Gandel Metals and is also a Director of AGS

So in the TO offer Gandel is trying to put doubt into AGS holders to get them to sell, yet wants to take full control of the Company and delist it ….. seems a lot of unnecessary risk on his behalf

Given the recent drill results, I'd say he's not offering enough cash … an independent report has been commissioned by the non associated Directors ……. the valuation could be interesting …

Given my suspicion of subterfuge at the Spec end of the market, it wouldn't surprise me if the whole event has been carefully planned to showcase the potential value of AGS simply to get the SP to a more realistic level before they need to raise further cash down the track …. If I were a holder, I'd be fairly happy with that plan


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## System (20 July 2022)

On July 19th, 2022, Alliance Resources Limited (AGS) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.14, following compulsory acquisition of its remaining securities by Gandel Metals Pty Ltd.


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