# GNC - Graincorp Limited



## 3 veiws of a secret (13 October 2006)

With the slump in agri-business shares, do any of you think GNC is positioned well at current prices. I'm tempted to enter in at possibly $7.25 a share. Can't but think this is good price to pitch in after todays fall. Tell me it is so. :headshake


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## BraceFace (20 November 2006)

Seems to have turned the corner now.
I think it may be good value.
This drought can't last forever ... surely!


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## BraceFace (27 November 2006)

Nice bounce over the last 2 trading days.
Up almost 10% to $8.80

Perhaps the AWB situation is rubbing off. (AWB also up over last 2 days in expectatioin of Cole report)

Thoughts?


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## traderandy (27 November 2006)

Also ABB just announced record profit - up 60%


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## BraceFace (14 September 2007)

Well, GNC has been a stellar performer heading up to $13.00 plus on the back of a more positive wheat market.
Then it tanks.....
For no apparent reason.
Back down to $9.50 today after some steady declines with market nervousness over the last month or two. How can the sub-prime mess have any direct effect on this company - beats me.

Unless there is something else happening here, this is good buying.


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## The Once-ler (14 September 2007)

Don't ya watch the news Braceface?

The Aussie wheat crop has mostly had no rain for 6 weeks. It's turning to dust mate. I've heard that one hundred thousand tonnes a day is disappearing into the big silo in the sky for every day it don't rain. 

That's the main problem.


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## BraceFace (14 September 2007)

The Once-ler said:


> Don't ya watch the news Braceface?
> 
> The Aussie wheat crop has mostly had no rain for 6 weeks.




Yep, must have missed that in between all the election posturing and BS.

There's been plenty of rain over west here, so maybe our news bulletins aren't so worried about the wheat/barley farmers.

Either way, GNC has been on the declined for the last 3 months pretty much, so there is something else going on I'm sure.

Share prices don't fall that much just because it's a bit dry in some parts of the country. We've apparently been in drought conditions for a few years now.....


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## The Once-ler (14 September 2007)

BraceFace said:


> Share prices don't fall that much just because it's a bit dry in some parts of the country. We've apparently been in drought conditions for a few years now.....




Yeah, no worries mate. Just trying to help, but last I looked, GNC doesn't handle grain in WA, so what does it matter what the WA crop looks like to GNC? Graincorp handle grain in QLD, NSW, Vic, and SA, and things are going downhill fast. Sure there's been drought for years, but last years drought was crook right through. This year the season started good, crops looked good, and now their failing. No rain in 2 or 3 weeks and it will be the same result as last years crop. You can't tell me that a halving of total grain won't be the main reason for GNC's share fall?


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## josjes (27 February 2008)

Graincorp on the spotlight today, rises 16% today. The Foundation Share held by farmers through the Grain Growers Association, gave farmers the majority of seats on the GrainCorp Board plus the right to block any take overs or mergers.
GrainCorp chairman Don Taylor said removal of the share strengthened the company's ability to compete in contestable markets and to capitalise on future opportunities. 

GrainCorp Shares Soar After Vote to Remove Grower Control

By Madelene Pearson
Enlarge Image/Details

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- GrainCorp Ltd., eastern Australia's largest grain handler, rose by a record in Sydney trading after shareholders voted to remove the ability of farmers to elect the majority of the board.

The so-called foundation share will be scrapped after a vote at its annual meeting today, Sydney-based GrainCorp said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange. The foundation share allowed the Grain Growers Association Ltd. to elect six of the company's 10 board members.

The vote comes two weeks after AWB Ltd., Australia's largest wheat exporter, failed to win support from its grain-grower shareholders to change its dual-share structure.

``Simplifying the company structure is a significant decision for shareholders and will have a positive impact on the future of the company,'' Chairman Don Taylor said today in a separate statement before the vote.

GrainCorp rose as much as A$2, or 18 percent, to A$13.13 on the exchange and traded at A$12.85 at 3:09 p.m. in Sydney. That's its biggest gain since it began trading on the exchange on March 30, 1998.

To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Melbourne on mpearson1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 26, 2008 23:11 EST


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## michael_selway (29 July 2008)

josjes said:


> Graincorp on the spotlight today, rises 16% today. The Foundation Share held by farmers through the Grain Growers Association, gave farmers the majority of seats on the GrainCorp Board plus the right to block any take overs or mergers.
> GrainCorp chairman Don Taylor said removal of the share strengthened the company's ability to compete in contestable markets and to capitalise on future opportunities.
> 
> GrainCorp Shares Soar After Vote to Remove Grower Control
> ...




Hi, its actually not too bad now







*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -34.5 -30.9 49.9 70.1 
DPS 10.0 0.0 40.0 49.0 *



> Date: 24/7/2008
> Author: Geoffrey Newman
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 22
> Australian rural group GrainCorp will not improve its takeover offer forstockfeed business Ridley Corporation. The announcement by GrainCorp MD MarkIrwin virtually means that the bid has failed, despite the deadline not arrivinguntil 26 August 2008. The recent decline in the predator's share price hasmade the deal unattractive for Ridley's investors. The combined entitywould have a significant share of the silos and feed mills infrastructure onAustralia's eastern seaboard. On 23 July 2008 GrainCorp stock closed at$A8.14, while Ridley's was worth $A1.11 compared with the offer price ofslightly more than $A0.90
> ...





thx

MS


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## CAB SAV (27 December 2008)

Bought in @ $5.23 few weeks back. Looking for marked  growth in summer grain harvest figures due end Jan/early Feb. Could return to profitability 09.It's all about weather or whether.


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## ridgey (8 June 2009)

Any holders planning on taking up the GNC SPP in the next couple of weeks? Current price still approx 20% above offer price. ($7.43 current price over $6.25 offer).


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## the barry (8 June 2009)

ridgey said:


> Any holders planning on taking up the GNC SPP in the next couple of weeks? Current price still approx 20% above offer price. ($7.43 current price over $6.25 offer).




Yeah, I will take it up. I think it might be heavily scaled back, but we will see. With so many companies putting out there hands at the moment who knows.


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## TabJockey (21 August 2009)

I am buying in at 7.60, can definatly see a bounce to 8.50 or so in the next month.

Its probably one of those shares that is good to buy for the kids, god knows what the demand for foodstuffs will be in 20 years.


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## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

Wow that was a crazy match! Opened $1.75 too high! It's like the capital raising didn't even happen...


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## skc (8 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Wow that was a crazy match! Opened $1.75 too high! It's like the capital raising didn't even happen...




I was so sure that was a mis print. Back to more reasonable level now. 
Isn't the offer price something like $5.65, so a nice profit for existing holders.

All and all a great deal and great move by the management. Still doesn't stop them being a prey in the agri business consolidation game, but probably push the time table back a few months.

Discl. I hold


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## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

skc said:


> I was so sure that was a mis print. Back to more reasonable level now.
> Isn't the offer price something like $5.65, so a nice profit for existing holders.
> 
> All and all a great deal and great move by the management. Still doesn't stop them being a prey in the agri business consolidation game, but probably push the time table back a few months.
> ...




You lucky dog you 
At least management is being cunning and looking after the holders, instos got placed shares at $7.05 instead of same price as entitlement issue.


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## NedFlanders (8 October 2009)

Hi,

Somewhat inexperienced in all this (and hold approximately 1300 GNC shares) - a few days back they were approximately $9/share now down to about $7.11 9 after UMH acquisitition...

Can someone please explain?

Thanks!


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## skc (8 October 2009)

NedFlanders said:


> Hi,
> 
> Somewhat inexperienced in all this (and hold approximately 1300 GNC shares) - a few days back they were approximately $9/share now down to about $7.11 9 after UMH acquisitition...
> 
> ...




Howdy Ned,

Don't worry. The market actually loved the acquisition. To fund the acquisition GNC gone to raise more capital from institutions and retail shareholders. As a retail holder you are entitled to "rights" which allow you to buy 9 shares for every 10 shares you hold (so you get to buy ~1170) at a discounted price (I think $5.65). So if you choose to exercise the right. You will make some profit on those new shares based on the current price, and probably no worse off overall. 

Not 100% sure what happens if you don't exercise that right. I think GNC will conduct a bookbuild (basically selling the shares that you didn't apply for on your behave) and give you some money back depending on what price they get.

It will all be explained to you in a letter coming from GNC, together with the rights entitlement documentation.

Okilly-dokilly?


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## NedFlanders (8 October 2009)

skc said:


> Howdy Ned,
> 
> Don't worry. The market actually loved the acquisition. To fund the acquisition GNC gone to raise more capital from institutions and retail shareholders. As a retail holder you are entitled to "rights" which allow you to buy 9 shares for every 10 shares you hold (so you get to buy ~1170) at a discounted price (I think $5.65). So if you choose to exercise the right. You will make some profit on those new shares based on the current price, and probably no worse off overall.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the explanation skc, that makes things clearer. I think I'll exercise the right.  Much appreciated neighbourino!


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## prawn_86 (22 October 2012)

2.8billion dollar takeover offer for Graincorp from US Agricultural co Archer Daniels Midland (ADM). THis is on the back of ADM buying 19.8% worth in a couple trades late last week


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## herzy (22 October 2012)

Offer price is 11.75 (ish). Why has sp jumped to 12.40?


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## rcm617 (22 October 2012)

The market is expecting additional offers for Graincorp or GNC to negotiate a better deal for shareholders.


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## chops_a_must (26 February 2013)

Still looks like a good target to me.

Not much discussion on ag stocks.

Why not?


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## chops_a_must (26 April 2013)

Well.

They've accepted the takeover at a premium. It looks like a good result to me.

12.20 for the shares and another $1 fully franked dividend.

Holding.


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## coolcup (26 April 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Well.
> 
> They've accepted the takeover at a premium. It looks like a good result to me.
> 
> ...




Is there any risk around the due diligence the bidder needs to do or getting FIRB and the Chinese Chamber of Commerce approval? Just wondering why it is trading so far below the bid price!!


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## chops_a_must (26 April 2013)

coolcup said:


> Is there any risk around the due diligence the bidder needs to do or getting FIRB and the Chinese Chamber of Commerce approval? Just wondering why it is trading so far below the bid price!!




I wouldn't have thought so.

But there is a time premium risk, which explains the price differential I imagine. 

Not much point reading much into the price action todau. Pretty low volume.


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## skyQuake (26 April 2013)

It'll take about 10 months to finalize everything.

Main issue is China's approval (for GNC's china assets). The relevant department took a year to give approval of Glencore/Xstrata.

3%pa -> 2.5% for 10m = 1.025%*12.85 -> $13.17



Go get that 3c of value!


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## coolcup (26 April 2013)

skyQuake said:


> It'll take about 10 months to finalize everything.
> 
> Main issue is China's approval (for GNC's china assets). The relevant department took a year to give approval of Glencore/Xstrata.
> 
> ...




My understanding is that they pay a fully franked 3.5 cents for every month it takes for the proposal to get approval beyond October 2013. My back of the envelope says that the IRR if it takes till February to finalise is 9.2% including the franking credits. I think that is a bit better than what you have indicated above.


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## chops_a_must (26 April 2013)

coolcup said:


> My understanding is that they pay a fully franked 3.5 cents for every month it takes for the proposal to get approval beyond October 2013. My back of the envelope says that the IRR if it takes till February to finalise is 9.2% including the franking credits. I think that is a bit better than what you have indicated above.




It is. But there is still a margin of risk.

You'll find that depending on how it is looking, arbitragers will begin to close the gap., and take out the risk.
And if it moves to an almost certainty, it will trade above 13.20.


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## coolcup (26 April 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> It is. But there is still a margin of risk.
> 
> You'll find that depending on how it is looking, arbitragers will begin to close the gap., and take out the risk.
> And if it moves to an almost certainty, it will trade above 13.20.




I agree. One is time risk you spoke of earlier. The other is the deal risk. The 7 day period of DD seems pretty short, so that shouldn't pose much of a risk. The key thing is FIRB (does Australia feel it is too strategic an asset to sell) and the Chinese Chamber of Commerce (no idea what they will think).

Any views?


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## Zedd (25 July 2013)

Any thoughts on whether the buyout will go ahead? The market certainly seems to be getting more and more wary given the talk in the news, and the Nationals being completely against it.

Personally I'd love to see the deal fail and the share price plummet cause I'd love to get back into this company for a long-term hold. 

Recent international buyouts though appear to go through, regardless of how much anti-foreign ownership sentiment there is. Anyone remember when the last deal was knocked back due to foreign investment concerns from the US?


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## DJG (1 September 2013)

Does anybody know why GNC paid so much tax in 2012 compared to 2011?


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## skc (1 September 2013)

DJG said:


> Does anybody know why GNC paid so much tax in 2012 compared to 2011?
> View attachment 54177




You are looking at the cashflow statement which may be affected by timing of tax payments.

How do these numbers compare with the tax expense on the P&L?

Another potential reason would be exceptional one-off items... may be a writedown in 2011 or some exceptional gain in 2012 (e.g. asset sale). You will have to dig through the reports to find them.


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## DJG (1 September 2013)

I'm currently doing it at university and all though my group got close we couldn't seem to get close enough. Most likely its a variety of things.
We're analysing GrainCorp and doing as you said, getting rid of one-off, non-recurring events.

Already dug through most of the report. Not even the deferred assets/liabilities were close.


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## notting (29 November 2013)

That is one of the worst decisions I think I have ever seen.
Deal off.
This is totally political, made to subdue paranoid farmers hence boost buffoon national/country party.
This thing will never be worth what was offered.  
Hardy makes his first big move, fat moron. (as in Laurel and Hardy)
International instos will be well pissed!
I don't own it.
Will short the crap out of it if it opens anything higher than it's trading price prior to bid.


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## skc (29 November 2013)

notting said:


> That is one of the worst decisions I think I have ever seen.
> Deal off.
> This is totally political, made to subdue paranoid farmers hence boost buffoon national/country party.
> This thing will never be worth what was offered.
> ...




I am ok with the decision. Hockey's job is not about maximising return for shareholder value. So whether the bid is made at an over inflated price is irrelevant. 

There's something about agriculture and politics and corruption that just seem to go together more often than not...


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## coolcup (29 November 2013)

notting said:


> That is one of the worst decisions I think I have ever seen.
> Deal off.
> This is totally political, made to subdue paranoid farmers hence boost buffoon national/country party.
> This thing will never be worth what was offered.
> ...




I think the whole register is hedge funds now pretty much right? They will be shorting right alongside you!


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## notting (29 November 2013)

skc said:


> There's something about agriculture and politics and corruption that just seem to go together more often than not...




Wouldn't matter cause they would have sold it back to us in five years time for half the price because there are no budget aliens to work the farm!


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## Whiskers (29 November 2013)

notting said:


> That is one of the worst decisions I think I have ever seen.
> Deal off.
> This is totally political, made to subdue paranoid farmers hence boost buffoon national/country party.
> This thing will never be worth what was offered.
> ...




As it turns out I also think Hockey did make the decision purely on a political basis because the Nationals, or more particularly so many of their supporters are so against the deal. Warren Truss speaking out again yesterday against the deal, on top of Joyce and quite a number of coalition members in grain growing areas regularly speaking out against it was probably the straw that broke the camels back so to speak.



skc said:


> I am ok with the decision. Hockey's job is not about maximising return for shareholder value. So whether the bid is made at an over inflated price is irrelevant.
> 
> There's something about agriculture and politics and corruption that just seem to go together more often than not...




I believe he made the correct decision (against his original intentions) for the future of Aus agriculture and the economy. Too often the boards of our companies are infiltrated by investors and or directors whose aim is to facilitate a takeover or other business re-arrangements not in the best interest of shareholders or the national interest. 

From my experience the agricultural industry in Aus does not escape corruption issues, but I'm thinking the whole ADM takeover was tending to be more corrupt'ish to increase the prevalence of monopolies.

A bit of a kick in the knee occasionally for multinationals like ADM won't hurt our foreign investment prospects, but should send a message we are not a push over for corrupt monopolies.

What's needed now is a board shakeup to focus on utilising it's resources more efficiently.


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## skc (29 November 2013)

No idea why GNC is trading so strong this morning... they reported pretty poorly last month and there's plenty of event hedge fund (40% of register apparently) looking to unwind, yet it's all one way traffic from the open.

Time to short me thinks.


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## rcm617 (29 November 2013)

Maybe investors think that if ADM saw value at $12.20 plus another $2 per share in commitments to extra capital expenditure, the shares might be worth a bit more in the long run than the $8.70 they traded at before the bid.
Management may try and screw a bit more profit out of operations.


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## notting (29 November 2013)

Maybe ADM are buying it on market, increasing their stake, as newly permitted to, to hold till labour gets back in!
That's what I'd do if I thought it was worth the price!


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## piggybank (30 November 2013)

notting said:


> Will short the crap out of it if it opens anything higher than it's trading price prior to bid.




We will have to wait and see what Monday brings...


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## So_Cynical (5 February 2014)

In with the superfund today at $7.59 ~ time will tell of course but the chart below explains my thinking, ignoring the take over share price and the lead up to it, with rumours and insiders buying and consider that at today's 24 month low the price would seem to be on the cheap side.

3 year chart shows Graincorp averaging at around the 7.50 mark in 2011, now consider that the global economy has picked up considerably and that Graincorp is a considerably better business than 2/3 years ago, Total liability's and debt are up a little (around 15%) while revenue has increased by around 60% and revenue streams have diversified further.

On a simple like for like comparison i reckon GNC looks cheap, have to wonder just how much the removal of any TO premium will subdue the SP.
~


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## DrapSnagon (6 February 2014)

Agree.

I like this and have done for a while. I bought into a parcel in July 2012 at 919c, and was somewhat gutted to have to sell into the ADM bid at 1224c in October that year. On the face of it, that was a good trade, but I didn't buy it for a trade:- I expected it to form a cornerstone of my exposure to agri-business for many years. Very annoyed.

At the time [and even now] there are precious few opportunities for exposure to this sector on the ASX. I don't like Ridley or AAC or Nufarm, so I ended up taking a position in BGA. Then that ran away before I could build it into something meaningful, so another door closed. TGR is still on watch but it has never fallen far enough to be attractive. I finally ended up with IPL, but that took another 12 months and I still wasn't pleased with the outcome. 

So I was a happy camper when Graincorp came back on the radar recently at 820c and happier still to stake out an initial buy at 796c. Completed the holding today at 754c and I'm now at two-thirds of my planned exposure to the sector.

Everything I see values GNC at $8+ {consensus is closer to $9}, even with the drop in FY14 EPS which the experts say is transient. The need for capex is a worry (ADM would have taken care of that) because they might tap the market at some stage, but I can live with that. The overhang of ADM is also probably concerning people, but I can live with that too:- they've demonstrated they don't abandon equity positions just because a bid failed, and certainly not at firesale prices.

​_Another downside is the loss of Alison Watkins, who imho is a very capable lady. The idea of her having to deal with Federal Government intervention [or the lack of it] in two different companies for two totally different reasons in the space of a few months is just bizarre. No way would I swap jobs with her. What other CEO in recent memory had to put up with that?_

But I digress ...

Around $7 ½ GNC is in the money for me at a grossed-up yield of 7% and plenty of headroom in growth to consensus targets.

I'm with you on this - I guess we sink or swim together 

Snap


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## Zedd (8 February 2014)

^ +1 

I took the short term profits during the takeover bid, but quite happy to see it knocked back as this is one of my favourite core holdings. I can't see the current situation lasting though and it's a matter of time before GNC is involved in a large M&A. I'd rather see it look to expand its international operations with a large acquisition, but it's more likely IMO that the board will look to run a tight ship to continue to maximise takeover attractiveness and simply wait out / lobby the government.


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## So_Cynical (15 May 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> (5th-February-2014) In with the superfund today at *$7.59 ~ time will tell *of course but the chart below explains my thinking, ignoring the take over share price and the lead up to it, with rumours and insiders buying and consider that at today's 24 month low the price would seem to be on the cheap side.




A little over 3 months later and today Graincorp touched $9 per share on the back of the HY2014 results, 15c per share dividend and full year guidance confirmation.

http://www.graincorp.com.au/_literature_165247/HY14_Results_Presentation


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## So_Cynical (10 January 2017)

Over 2 and a half years later im still holding, price retreated all the way back down to $7.50 and now its gone all the way back up to $9.70, top of the range again...probably should sell as the dividend isn't worth it, not sure why i didn't sell last time...
~


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## sptrawler (12 January 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> Over 2 and a half years later im still holding, price retreated all the way back down to $7.50 and now its gone all the way back up to $9.70, top of the range again...probably should sell as the dividend isn't worth it, not sure why i didn't sell last time...
> ~
> View attachment 69494



Maybe you're holding for a Chinese buy out. lol
For that to happen, there would have to be some strategic upside, which eludes me.
But as with a lot of our transport companies, having a large footprint, interests overseas companies.


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## So_Cynical (3 December 2018)

Non binding blah blah blah at $10.42 a very nice jump in the SP, interesting and somewhat expected that the offer isn't fully priced into the SP due to the last rejection.


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## The Triangle (11 December 2018)

I'm happy with the bump.  Thought it might tick up to $10.00 but it has not.  My usual rule is to sell half on any initial takeover offer/confirmed rumor.   This does feel like a fake or predatory offer to flush out others willing to pay a higher price especially as it comes after a poor season, in a down market.   Could not imagine this company going for 10.42


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## The Triangle (4 March 2019)

Gone entirely out of this one.  Nothing against graincorp, just taking the capital gains and investing elsewhere.    Oddly I think the LTAP proposal values the company too low - either a revised offer will come (which I'm happy to miss out on) or the offer will not materialize and the SP will fall back down.     Still trying to understand the bulk oil terminal sale - I don't have an opinion if its good, bad.


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## The Triangle (7 May 2019)

Ahh yes.  The takeover offer by some unknown lads has failed...   "LTAP is unable to proceed".   Very interested to see where the SP ends up by the end of the week.  High 7s?.    I'll very likely be back in to GNC before June.  I'm a fan of splitting the company in to various pieces.


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## The Triangle (1 November 2019)

GNC was in the low 7s last year at this time before the failed TO was announced.  It's now back to the low 7s but facing a 65 $m ebitda, losses for this year, and no dividends (possibly for the foreseeable future).  Far worse looking than 12 months ago.     Although these earnings issues may be temporary the valuation for this company is way too high.   I dont see this staying above 7 once the earnings report is out this month.


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## So_Cynical (1 November 2019)

The Triangle said:


> Although these earnings issues may be temporary the valuation for this company is way too high. I dont see this staying above 7 once the earnings report is out this month.




Agreed - the only positive for shareholders is the Malt spin out.


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## The Triangle (20 March 2020)

This is still overvalued.  The demerger presentations with maltcorp are complete with a lot of corporate doublespeak.    Both separately are going to be too small to just sit there and pay dividends consistently at a high return.  With the asset sales, I think we'll see the corporate costs relative to market cap jump up. 

Growth according to their own presentations is at the bottom of the priority tree - so why invest in either one?  Even at a 70% payout, I doubt there would be much more than 2.5% if you look at the last 6 years.  And if you look at the last 6 years - there has been nothing but sideways movement.   If I had to pick I would prefer maltcorp - should be interesting to see where it trades next month.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 May 2020)

Several major Australian grain groups have issued a joint statement today saying the industry understands China is "potentially proposing to place tariffs on barley imported from Australia as a result of their ongoing anti-dumping and countervailing duties investigation".

"The yet-to-be-finalised tariffs may include a dumping margin of up to 73.6 per cent and a subsidy margin of up to 6.9 per cent for barley imported from Australia," it said.



> The subsidy claims are understood to refer to Australia's fuel rebate and drought support measures, and together with the dumping tariff would effectively put an end to Australia's barley trade with China. Government sources suggest the investigation could be used as a cover to impose the tariffs, in *retaliation against Australia's push for the COVID-19 inquiry*...



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...nsion-barley-tariff/12232426?section=politics

https://www.graingrowers.com.au/update-on-china-anti-dumping-investigation/

This has been around for a while; statement below is from Nov 2018
https://www.graingrowers.com.au/joint-industry-statement-china-barley-anti-dumping-investigation/


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## wabullfrog (14 May 2020)

Has had a big bounce today, last I saw was over $3.80


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## peter2 (3 September 2020)

GNC: Significant break-out potential. Price has been stuck in a range (3.00-4.50) for a little under two years. The price data is a little spotty due to the demerger of United Malt (early 2020). 

Investors and traders have to accept future agricultural risks (weather) and a truculent China.


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## Dona Ferentes (8 January 2021)

Probably will benefit CBH group more than GNC.


Key points:

_WA growers reap a higher-than-expected 16.5 million tonne harvest_​
_The harvest is tipped to exceed $6 billion as high grain prices deliver producers a huge payday_​
_The haul comes despite a historically dry season and the trade war with China_​

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-01-0...prises/13039572


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## Dona Ferentes (13 August 2021)

_GNC upgraded its range for 2021 underlying earnings to a range of $310  million to $330 million, up from a previous range of $255 million to  $285 million.

 Underlying net profit is now expected to be in a range of $125  million to $140 million compared to its previous upgrade in May to a  range of $80 million to $105 million. GrainCorp will report its final  2020 -21 results on 11 November._



> "_We are pleased to upgrade our FY21 earnings guidance, which reflects  the strong performance of our east coast Australian (ECA) grains  business, following the bumper 2020/21 harvest",_ CEO Robert Spurway said  in the statement.





> _"We are seeing excellent demand for high quality Australian grain,   particularly with recent weather related crop production challenges in   the northern hemisphere, and July delivered our biggest month of   contracted sales on record_."



 GrainCorp said it now expects to see total exports this year at the  higher end of previous expectations of 7 million to 8 million metric  tonnes.


> "_We’re hearing reports of good potential in the upcoming crop, based on factors including area planted, sub-soil moisture levels, season-to-date rainfall, and longer-term weather forecasts,”_ said Mr Spurway.




............. at at a very healthy $6.09 today; was $5.30 at start of week.  And probably about as high as it has been for at least 8 years.  Good season, exceptional some might say, on both E and W Coasts; bullish outlook; cuts to both Russian and Canadian wheat crops; investment in storage capacity.


----------



## peter2 (13 August 2021)

Noticed that most of our main agriculture companies are having a good time recently.

*GNC* broke resistance at 5.50 with their upgrade. 
*ELD* made new high this week. 
*AAC* rallied hard last two days. Meat prices rocketing higher. 
*CGC* is thinking about going higher. I'm a bit wary of Costa, so not for me. 
*HUO* jumped higher on takeover news. *TGR* rallied on HUO news.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 August 2021)

peter2 said:


> Noticed that most of our main agriculture companies are having a good time recently.
> 
> *GNC* broke resistance at 5.50 with their upgrade.
> *ELD* made new high this week.
> ...




Posted 6th June in POG thread...
@rederob had a laugh...



frugal.rock said:


> From keeping tabs on our agriculture sector, farmers are positive and getting massively better grain crops, underlying moisture levels are good and they are all seeding more than usual.
> Markets displaced by China have found new homes and prices have well recovered.
> They just need the good conditions to continue later in the year.
> Can't eat gold... well you can, just get fancy poo's though. 😁
> Food for thought.


----------



## mullokintyre (23 August 2021)

Bought into GNC this day.
ABARES has forecast an above average grain plantings for 2021-22, after a record breaking crop in 2020-2021.
Wheat was around USD 5.30 a bushel late last year, although off its most recent highs, is still well above at  USD7.18.
Driving around the Goulburn Valley recently, Canola crops are starting to flower, and there is still plenty of subsoil moisture.
There have been downgrading of yields in the US , Canada and Argentina because of weird weather.
Mick


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## Greynomad99 (23 August 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Bought into GNC this day.
> ABARES has forecast an above average grain plantings for 2021-22, after a record breaking crop in 2020-2021.
> Wheat was around USD 5.30 a bushel late last year, although off its most recent highs, is still well above at  USD7.18.
> Driving around the Goulburn Valley recently, Canola crops are starting to flower, and there is still plenty of subsoil moisture.
> ...



Well good luck with GNC and while it has made good gains recently it has spent several years going nowhere in a tight trading range stuck below $5.05. My rule with agricultural related stocks is to keep clear of them because there are just too many risks - especially in the driest (getting drier) continent on Earth. 
With stocks all that fundamental analysis is mainly noise to me. I don't ignore it entirely but my decisions are governed by what the charts say. GNC's chart tells me it is a volatile stock that is hard to predict and has little in the way of a discernable price cycle - so not a trading stock in my book or a bottom drawer sit and hold prospect either.
It has made a steep price channel since November last year and now being at the top boundary of said channel my feeling is that there is a higher probability price will pull back to the lower boundary (as it has done before) rather than rise further. 
Good luck with your trade and remember charting is just a lot of theoretical mumbo jumbo that isn't always right so me saying price might go down doesn't mean it will.


----------



## qldfrog (24 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I actually bought some GNC and had an order ready for more today:
> europe is having a very crappy weather and I suspect a very bad harvest: you hear a lot about fires in the Mediterranean area but the reast of teh continent has had a miserable cold and wet summer which is not great for wheat, unless dry weather settles there for the next months, it could be a disastrous European harvest..the chart is not good..i agree..but charts do not know weather



discard above, with extended planted area in france at least, the harvest will be bigger...so I canned my buy order


----------



## mullokintyre (24 August 2021)

Forecasting food production always a bit of a gamble, but I am moving more of our funds into food production/distribution.
Whatever happens in the world, people still have to eat.
No matter how much capacity and how fast your 8 terrabyte 700 terra HZ Iphone 47 might be, ya still can't eat it.
Unless you cook it for a very long time. then put it through the nutribullet.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog (24 August 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Forecasting food production always a bit of a gamble, but I am moving more of our funds into food production/distribution.
> Whatever happens in the world, people still have to eat.
> No matter how much capacity and how fast your 8 terrabyte 700 terra HZ Iphone 47 might be, ya still can't eat it.
> Unless you cook it for a very long time. then put it through the nutribullet.
> Mick



Agree I am partial to RFF .one of the few companies in oz which could profit from Reset success or failure..
And RFF fell yesterday 😊


----------



## mullokintyre (3 September 2021)

Dona f posted this in another fthread


> “We’re seeing excellent demand for high quality Australian grain, particularly with recent weather-related crop production challenges in the northern hemisphere, and July delivered our biggest month of contracted sales on record”
> _Robert Spurway, CEO, GrainCorp Ltd_




Today I drove past one of GNC's larger grain handling stores, and there is still a lot of grain under tarp. Could not tell what was in Silos, but  one might expect they will have to rely on either on farm storage tubes or start shifting even larger  record  gran sales.
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 September 2021)

The WA government has admitted a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for the state's biggest-ever harvest has failed.
Key points:​
A lack of quarantine facilities has thwarted a plan to bring in skilled overseas workers
The severe worker shortage is threatening to derail WA's biggest-ever harvest
The WA government says it is exploring other avenues to mobilise for the harvest
The sector had been crying out for the specialised workers to assist with a projected 20-million-tonne record harvest.

WA Agriculture Minister Alannah MacTiernan has told ABC's Country Hour it will not happen.


> _"It has just proved too difficult to do this unilaterally as a single state_," she said. "_We have tried to make this work, but we have got a pandemic and look, we're pulling out every other stop that we can to mobilise for this harvest_."












						Plan to bring in overseas workers for WA's biggest-ever grain harvest falls over
					

The WA government admits a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for WA's biggest-ever grain harvest has fallen through amid predictions it will cost the industry between $300 and $500 million.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## wabullfrog (3 September 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Dona f posted this in another fthread
> 
> 
> Today I drove past one of GNC's larger grain handling stores, and there is still a lot of grain under tarp. Could not tell what was in Silos, but  one might expect they will have to rely on either on farm storage tubes or start shifting even larger  record  gran sales.
> Mick




There is always a bit of carryover just in case things go really pear shaped before the next crop is harvested. A fair portion of GNC crop is directed to meet domestic markets on the east coast so would expect a bit of it to move between now and harvest commencing.

Just entering the period where frost events start to become a risk to eventual harvest yields and quality. In WA we will probably  had a bit of frost last night & will get a worse event tonight. Cold weather yesterday which has left a pool of cold air over the states South, cloud cover has disappeared & the wind is getting very light.

Good site to track Weather in WA agricultural regions.

https://weather.agric.wa.gov.au/


----------



## sptrawler (3 September 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The WA government has admitted a plan to bring in skilled overseas farm workers in time for the state's biggest-ever harvest has failed.
> Key points:​
> A lack of quarantine facilities has thwarted a plan to bring in skilled overseas workers
> The severe worker shortage is threatening to derail WA's biggest-ever harvest
> ...



I'm finding that all a bit hard to swallow, not that I know a lot about it, but i doubt they bring in overseas workers to drive state of the art machinery and they certainly don't use scythe's any more. I might be missing something, but I would have thought they use contract harvesters these days and I doubt they import operators.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I'm finding that all a bit hard to swallow, not that I know a lot about it,



It's all political point scoring. The labour is working in the mines, internal migration is banned, and immigration has stopped.

But rather than trying to optimise a situation or find a solution, Blame Someone Else.


----------



## mullokintyre (6 September 2021)

At the beginning of April, Canola Futures were sitting around 5.80USD bushel. 
By mid July, they were at 9.12 USD a bushel.
They have stayed in a narrow band  around 9.00USD a bushel.
Canada leads the way in Canola production, followed by China, India, then Australia.
Just to show how risky farming is,  about 3 months ago, Canada was looking at a record harvest after the biggest Canola planting in years 5 years.
But thanks to drought and hot weather the forecast is for the smallest crop in 9 years, down 25% on last year.
So if the largest producer in the world of Canola cuts 25% of its output, you might expect that to provide some level of support foir canola prices, at leat in the short to medium term.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre (9 September 2021)

According to the  


> A new report from ANZ has predicted Australian agriculture may have reached 'peak acreage' in terms of land that can be used to grow crops.
> 
> It comes as the current winter cropping season has seen a record area planted, with 23 million hectares in the ground.
> 
> ...



I have a number of questions about this.
Firstly, why would you go to a bank for agricultural information.
Secondly, there is huge amounts of land that could yet be devoted to grains. 
Farmers  will risk going on the "goyder line" if the potential rewards are worth the risk.
There also a lot of land  that is currently under horticulture, orchards, or irrigated  pasture that could switch to crops if the **** returns from dairying, tomatoes, and other crops keep falling.
There are a lot of acreage shut up for the production of hay and silage that the same applies to.
There is sill   a bit more land that could shift to crops if the economics stack up.
Mick


----------



## qldfrog (9 September 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> According to the
> 
> I have a number of questions about this.
> Firstly, why would you go to a bank for agricultural information.
> ...



When you realise the bounty properly managed earth /soil can give, it is more a matter of properly manag8ng what we have, ensuring water capture both within the soil but also in new dams...
And realising that we can not expect yearly cereal harvests on some of our marginal lands, so if we have rain, we gather hay..and cereals, but if not, well we wait...


----------



## mullokintyre (16 September 2021)

GNC hit another 52 week high today.
The chart for the year shows a steady upward trend that shows little sign of breaking.
Just the way i like them.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (18 September 2021)

From ABC News



> Australian canola prices have been historically high this year and increased again this week.
> The reason was Canada.
> 
> Canada is the world's largest producer and exporter of canola, but drought and record temperatures have devastated this year's crop.
> ...




The late frosts in WA are diminishing the yields somewhat in WA, but the good winter rains here on the east coast have more than made up for it.
Should be good news for the likes of GNC.
Mick


----------



## basilio (18 September 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> According to the
> 
> I have a number of questions about this.
> Firstly, why would you go to a bank for agricultural information.
> ...




I'd question a number of your comments Mull.

Realistically Australia is at/around peak cropping land at the moment. There is always a grey area between grazing and cropping land and it does depend on the season and prospective prices of crops vs sheep as to how much land is sown - and to what .  I don't believe there is any "huge" amount of land available that can be  cropped.

On the other side of the coin  Australia farm land is far more vulnerable to CC iimpact. Excessive heat, drier overall climate, storm events at harvest time, even bushfire at harvest time are all increasing the risks of agriculture.  The Goyder line  is in fact going south as the climate warms up. 

I'd also be amazed if horticulture land ended up being turned into wheat farms. The returns for tree and horticulture  crops are  many times higher than broad acre wheat farms. And on that point alone it won't happen. Wheat or wheat/sheep  farms are  BIG.   Often thousand of acres. Farmers don't run  100-200 acre properties as wheat farms. The economics and logistics don't work. 

I also suspect that hay and silage production offers good value for farmers both for their own animals, investment in future feedstock and sale.









						Climate change impacts on Australian crop farming - All About Feed
					

Australia has experienced higher temperatures and lower winter rainfall in recent decades, significantly affecting many crop farmers. The latest Insights




					www.allaboutfeed.net
				











						Climate change forcing crops rethink for farmers as Goyder's Line 'moves south'
					

Climate change is moving a line drawn across South Australian maps 150 years ago to indicate the northern boundary of the state's good agricultural land, scientists say.




					www.abc.net.au
				











						On a roll: Hay and silage stocks replenished as farmers prepare for the next drought
					

While farmers across NSW were forced to import fodder earlier this year, some can now send their freshly cut hay to drought-affected properties in Queensland.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## qldfrog (22 September 2021)

this week is down down down for GNC, a bit unexpected as agri shares are more defensive usually..no announcement I am aware off, I am out with a modest profit after a 5% fall from recent  top


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## mullokintyre (8 October 2021)

GNC hit another 52 week high.
Will probably take my profits if it hits mid 6.70's
Mick


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## mullokintyre (20 October 2021)

fallen back from 6.77 high to low 6.28.
Will definitely buy back in if it gets below 6.15.
Mainstream media now getting on the bandwagon.
from ABC News


> The latest grains cropping forecast from Rabobank predicts the current winter crop will hit just under 53 million tonnes, just slightly off 2020's highs.
> 
> Winter grain crops are predicted to hit just under 53 million tonnes
> Western Australia was set to have a record year for production
> ...



Was over at Casterton and Rainbow area last week. 
Was a bit surprised at how small the crops were (apart from chick peas and canola , both of which looked pretty good).
Not quite to the level last year but still a bumper crop.
And prices are higher than last year as well.
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 November 2021)

Graincorp handled 34.4 million tonnes of grain in 2021, just above the 33.4 million tonnes it handled in 2017. But four years ago, the group only produced EBIT of $127 million, compared with $331 million in 2021.

Although CEO Robert Spurway has pulled costs out of the businesses, he is also invested to improve efficiency across the supply chain, from the amount of time it takes to turn trucks around at the farm gate to improved storage at high demand locations.

Spurway says the business is better placed than ever to weather the inherent cyclicality of the industry and he has initiatives in place that will add another $40 million EBITDA by 2024. This will come from further cost cutting but also greater utilisation of the Graincorp supply chain; repurposing port infrastructure to handle cement for example, as well as growth opportunities in handling wood pellets, wood chips and mineral sands.

While bumper grain crops provide a massive tailwind, there have been challenges in the form of labour shortages (which are particularly acute in regional areas) and supply chain issues.

But thanks to advanced planning, Spurway has dodged both. Having seen the bumper crop coming, he got in early last year to hire 3000 harvest casuals, emphasising local jobs for local people in this employment drive and structuring this temporary workforce in such a way that he could limit the need to move workers across borders. For the harvest that started a few weeks ago, Graincorp got 70 per cent of these casuals back - an impressive result given the war for workers.

Supply chains issues have been relatively minor, in part because 95 per cent of the Graincorp business is bulk charters, not the container ships that have been most affected by the disruptions seen at ports around the world. Spurway says that of the 115 ships charted, just two suffered minor charges because of delays.



> "_In my years of experience in global supply chains, it is an exceptional result at any time, particularly in a year like we've seen_."


----------



## mullokintyre (12 November 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Graincorp handled 34.4 million tonnes of grain in 2021, just above the 33.4 million tonnes it handled in 2017. But four years ago, the group only produced EBIT of $127 million, compared with $331 million in 2021.
> 
> Although CEO Robert Spurway has pulled costs out of the businesses, he is also invested to improve efficiency across the supply chain, from the amount of time it takes to turn trucks around at the farm gate to improved storage at high demand locations.
> 
> ...



Their only potential  problem I can see is the shortage of drivers for the trucks.
Most of the problems seems to be with the long haul requirements, I know my brother in law  has retired from interstate work because of the  difficulties in border crossing requirements.  
I have done a little driving this season for mates doing hay and silage mainly because the regulars are not available for various reasons. They all say there is a general shortage or workers in regional areas at most levels.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (15 November 2021)

Listening to the OPS manager for GNC on the Country Hour this afternoon.
Says the wet weather has seriously curtailed the start of the grain season.
In Victoria at least, they are 50% down on the amount of grain bought in compared to the same time last year.
Some areas have not even started.
The worry now is if the rain keeps hanging around and the wether warms up , grain sprouting as well as black mildew on barely will become an issue.
Everyone is hoping for no more rain, but cool windy days to keep the  conditions ok for the grain before it gets harvested.
After i sold out at 6.77, was looking to get back in around 6.15, but never got that low, so still out of it.
Will keep my powder dry on GNC for a little while yet.
Mick


----------



## The Triangle (15 November 2021)

The Triangle said:


> This is still overvalued.  The demerger presentations with maltcorp are complete with a lot of corporate doublespeak.    Both separately are going to be too small to just sit there and pay dividends consistently at a high return.  With the asset sales, I think we'll see the corporate costs relative to market cap jump up.
> 
> Growth according to their own presentations is at the bottom of the priority tree - so why invest in either one?  Even at a 70% payout, I doubt there would be much more than 2.5% if you look at the last 6 years.  And if you look at the last 6 years - there has been nothing but sideways movement.   If I had to pick I would prefer maltcorp - should be interesting to see where it trades next month.



Well, only took 18 months and she's back to a good level.    Glad I dumped the shares as If I had held through the demerger I probably would have dumped out all the GrainCorp and loaded up on united malt (which has gone nowhere!).



mullokintyre said:


> Listening to the OPS manager for GNC on the Country Hour this afternoon.
> Says the wet weather has seriously curtailed the start of the grain season.
> In Victoria at least, they are 50% down on the amount of grain bought in compared to the same time last year.
> Some areas have not even started.
> ...



Got to love agricultural shares.  A proper cyclic industry!  There's always a time to get back in.  And out.  And in.  etc. etc.


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## KevinBB (15 November 2021)

Thanks for this analysis. Don't hold GNC, but am long wheat 
KH


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## mullokintyre (8 February 2022)

From yesterdays Australian


> GrainCorp says it expects its full year net profit to soar by as much as 100 per cent following a bumper crop, defying pandemic-fuelled labour shortages and supply chain disruptions that have plagued Australia’s food bowl.
> The profit upgrade made it the best performer on the ASX on Monday, its shares surging by 13 per cent to $8.50 before easing to close at $8.10.
> 
> Chief executive Robert Spurway said the company overcame labour shortages and supply chain disruptions from Covid-19 and floods to process the harvest, which “broke multiple site receival records across our network”.
> ...



The only   spoiler on the horizon is the increasing practice by some of the bigger grain users to bypass the Bulk Grain handlers and deal directly with the farmers as CUB do with barley growers around the Tweed River area. But is suh a small market compared to the big picture, it will probably not phase the bulk storage players.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (14 February 2022)

From  ABC News


> India has dropped its import tariff on lentils paving the way for Australian farmers to cash in after a bumper harvest.
> Key points:​
> India has removed an 11 per cent import tariff on lentils
> The tariff is removed effective immediately
> ...



If Australia can increase that measly 2%  to something like 7 or 10%, it would be a huge boost for OZ.
We need to swap Chinese hegemony for something a kittle less one sided, and India would fit that bill nicely.
Mick


----------



## Jeda (28 February 2022)

Grain prices up 16%


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## frugal.rock (8 April 2022)

Punching new highs ?
As long as Russia is on the nose, GNC should fare well.
Was faring well long before Russia thing though...
 One of those stocks ... Makes me scratch my head, why do I constantly reach for the shooting stars? 🤔
Weekly and monthly charts.


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## Dona Ferentes (8 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> From  ABC News
> 
> If Australia can increase that measly 2%  to something like 7 or 10%, it would be a huge boost for OZ.



Give us this day our daily _dal bhat_


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## divs4ever (8 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Give us this day our daily _dal bhat_



if Australia could increase it's fertilizer exports ..... ( which  wasn't impacted by Russia at all )  maybe we could grow some more stuff as well


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## Dona Ferentes (26 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> At the beginning of April, Canola Futures were sitting around 5.80USD bushel.
> By mid July, they were at 9.12 USD a bushel. They have stayed in a narrow band  around 9.00USD a bushel.
> 
> Just to show how risky farming is,  about 3 months ago, Canada was looking at a record harvest after the biggest Canola planting in years 5 years.
> ...




*Canola *on the world market is now worth $1,184.70 CAD per tonne, according to the Canada Price Index, which has almost doubled from about $680 a year ago.  Prices in Australia are at all-time highs, exceeding $1,000 a tonne over the past six months.

Australia Oilseeds Federation Chief executive Nick Goddard said he expected prices to remain high due to the tight global supply and a record national harvest of 6.4 million tonnes last year could see Australian farmers_ earn big money this year_.

...... Most recently, the Indonesian government banned the export of palm oil last Friday.  Being the world's largest supplier, analysts predict the demand for *other oilseeds *will rise as a result.

... However,  [a farmer] warned, prices would need to remain high to make up for what he described as "exorbitant" input costs.


> "_The fertiliser has just about doubled in cost. Fuel is costing us an absolute fortune, even the price of canola seed has gone up quite a bit_," he said.



_- ABC Rural

........................_ and GNC holding above $10 a share


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## eskys (6 June 2022)

Is something happening at GNC? It's up 34 cents as I type. Find this stock volatile, but good trading if bought at the right price


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## Dona Ferentes (11 August 2022)

Shares in GrainCorp (GNC) jumped yesterday after the company again upgraded earnings guidance for its year to September 2022 results.

The company told the ASX that the new range was $680-$730 million, up a possible $60 million as the company enjoys plentiful supplies, exports and solid prices.

Net after tax profit for the year to September is now estimated to be in the range of $365 to $400 million, up from the previous estimate of $310 to $370 million.

That saw GNC shares close up more than 5% at $8.03, still a long way under the high of $10.86 hit in early May as global wheat prices soared in the aftermath of the confusion caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway said in Wednesday’s statement that the improved outlook reflects outstanding execution across each of GrainCorp’s business areas and expectations for the east coast Australian (ECA) crop in 2022/23.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (12 August 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Shares in GrainCorp (GNC) jumped yesterday after the company again upgraded earnings guidance for its year to September 2022 results.
> 
> The company told the ASX that the new range was $680-$730 million, up a possible $60 million as the company enjoys plentiful supplies, exports and solid prices.
> 
> ...




Will be very curious to see outcomes over the long term on stocks like this, can higher prices for their product outweigh rising input costs?

i.e. are prices of GNC or SGLLV going up because they are printing money or because ASX participants don't have access to agriculture futures/ETFs?


----------



## divs4ever (12 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Will be very curious to see outcomes over the long term on stocks like this, can higher prices for their product outweigh rising input costs?
> 
> i.e. are prices of GNC or SGLLV going up because they are printing money or because ASX participants don't have access to agriculture futures/ETFs?



 i can only speak on my own motives  , but have never seriously considered  futures or ETFs  for exposure to the agricultural sector 

 GNC  has never been mathematically attractive to me  , while i  hold SGLLV  ( bought in November  2021 @ $6.29 ) and it is normally illiquid ( creep upwards but will plummet quickly from time to time)

SGLLV Trade History​Trade History table

SORTDATE INASCENDINGORDERSORTOPEN $INASCENDINGORDERSORTHIGH $INASCENDINGORDERSORTLOW $INASCENDINGORDERSORTCLOSE $INASCENDINGORDERSORTCHANGE $INASCENDINGORDERSORTCHANGE %INASCENDINGORDERSORTVOLUMEINASCENDINGORDER11/08/20227.3907.3907.2007.230-0.170-2.301,45410/08/20227.2007.4007.2007.4000.2002.781,97909/08/20227.2007.2207.1907.200-0.060-0.8313,19308/08/20227.2607.4007.2607.2600.0000.004,65105/08/20227.2207.2607.2157.2600.0100.144,00604/08/20227.4007.4007.2507.250-0.100-1.362,37103/08/20227.1507.3507.1507.3500.2002.801,50602/08/20227.2507.3007.1507.150-0.100-1.381,94401/08/20227.3507.3507.1807.250-0.100-1.3616,66729/07/20227.2607.3507.1807.3500.0600.823,40228/07/20227.2507.3007.1007.290-0.090-1.228,61927/07/20227.0907.3807.0707.3800.2803.944,24126/07/20227.0407.1006.9607.1000.0300.428,60925/07/20226.9607.0706.9407.0700.1201.732,25022/07/20227.0007.1006.9506.950-0.050-0.7155021/07/20227.0007.0006.9207.0000.0000.004,33520/07/20227.0007.0006.9907.0000.0000.004,20519/07/20227.0007.0006.9107.0000.0000.002,06518/07/20227.0007.0006.9007.0000.0600.865,33815/07/20226.9506.9506.9406.940-0.010-0.143,25814/07/20226.9506.9506.9406.9500.0500.727,02513/07/20227.0007.0006.9006.900-0.100-1.439,80312/07/20227.0007.0006.9007.0000.0000.0021,26711/07/20226.9907.0006.9207.0000.0100.1414,68008/07/20226.9806.9906.9806.9900.0100.1415,67907/07/20226.9806.9806.9706.9800.0000.001,04806/07/20226.8906.9806.8906.9800.1001.458,27905/07/20227.0007.0006.8806.880-0.120-1.718,67604/07/20226.9107.0006.9007.0000.0901.308,41801/07/20226.9206.9906.9106.910-0.010-0.147,79330/06/20227.0407.0406.9206.920-0.080-1.144,18529/06/20227.1507.1506.9507.000-0.150-2.1013,77228/06/20227.5007.5007.1507.150-0.780-9.8431,20227/06/20227.5007.9307.4507.9300.4405.8756,66824/06/20227.6007.6007.4907.490-0.070-0.9321,06423/06/20227.5007.7007.4507.5600.1101.4848,48822/06/20227.4407.5007.3507.4500.0500.6811,75621/06/20227.4507.5007.4007.4000.2102.9214,21820/06/20227.1407.5807.1407.1900.0600.8429,21717/06/20227.0007.1307.0007.1300.0300.4210,82416/06/20227.0007.1007.0007.1000.0500.713,95015/06/20227.1207.1207.0507.050-0.070-0.984,50814/06/20227.1407.1506.9807.120-0.060-0.8411,79410/06/20227.1007.2007.1007.1800.1702.437,98409/06/20227.3307.3307.0107.010-0.270-3.713,61708/06/20226.9507.2806.9507.2800.3004.3022,10807/06/20227.0507.0706.9506.980-0.070-0.9914,77006/06/20227.0207.1606.9707.0500.0000.0024,82703/06/20227.0507.0507.0007.0500.0100.143,79702/06/20227.0307.0907.0007.0400.0701.0011,25801/06/20226.9207.0006.9206.9700.0701.012,92231/05/20227.1407.1406.9006.900-0.250-3.5016,91930/05/20227.0007.1506.9907.1500.1502.1433,55127/05/20226.9307.0006.9307.0000.0701.0115,27626/05/20226.9106.9406.9006.9300.0300.4311,34025/05/20226.9006.9306.9006.900-0.010-0.141,17024/05/20226.8106.9406.8106.9100.1001.473,95123/05/20226.9006.9106.8106.810-0.090-1.304,17120/05/20226.8106.9206.8106.9000.0901.322,93819/05/20226.9006.9006.8106.8100.0400.591,38018/05/20226.7906.8456.7506.7700.0400.5966116/05/20226.9006.9006.7306.730-0.060-0.886,75313/05/20226.8406.8406.7906.790-0.050-0.734,90212/05/20226.8406.8406.8406.8400.1402.091,00011/05/20226.7106.7806.7006.700-0.040-0.591,07810/05/20226.9006.9006.7006.740-0.190-2.743,25909/05/20226.8006.9306.7006.930-0.010-0.147,48806/05/20226.8506.9406.6906.940-0.010-0.147,53005/05/20226.9506.9506.7506.9500.0000.009,83604/05/20226.9806.9806.8706.950-0.050-0.714,13103/05/20226.9707.0006.9507.0000.0300.435,53202/05/20226.8806.9706.8606.9700.0901.3115,79429/04/20226.8606.8806.8606.8800.0000.007,32828/04/20226.8806.9406.8806.880-0.010-0.152,28927/04/20226.8906.8906.8306.8900.0600.888,01926/04/20226.8706.8706.8306.830-0.070-1.012,77022/04/20226.9606.9706.9006.9000.0000.007,76821/04/20226.8806.9006.8506.9000.0200.293,88620/04/20226.7106.8806.6956.8800.1802.6915,98719/04/20226.7706.7706.6906.7000.1502.295,00814/04/20226.7206.7406.5506.550-0.160-2.3846,93413/04/20226.7706.7706.7106.7100.0100.159,09812/04/20226.6506.7706.6406.7000.0600.9015,13711/04/20226.6006.6406.6006.6400.0100.153,61008/04/20226.6406.6406.5206.6300.1201.842,57007/04/20226.6006.6006.5106.510-0.090-1.3630,10906/04/20226.7406.7406.6006.600-0.170-2.5114,60705/04/20226.6506.7706.6506.770-0.010-0.1576404/04/20226.7706.7806.6106.780-0.020-0.2912,75501/04/20226.8006.8106.8006.8000.0000.0015931/03/20226.5706.8006.5706.8000.1802.721,06530/03/20226.5906.6306.5706.6200.0300.467,39429/03/20226.5906.5906.5006.5900.0000.0023,08928/03/20226.5906.5906.5906.5900.0000.006,00825/03/20226.5006.5906.5006.5900.0000.006,69224/03/20226.5906.5906.5006.5900.0000.001,18023/03/20226.5606.5906.5006.5900.0901.3814,66022/03/20226.6006.7106.5006.500-0.100-1.5213,80921/03/20226.6006.6506.5006.6000.0450.692,98918/03/20226.5406.6006.4806.5550.0150.2310,43017/03/20226.5506.6006.5406.540-0.010-0.151,95416/03/20226.5406.6006.5406.550-0.050-0.763,27215/03/20226.6006.6006.6006.6000.0600.929,27614/03/20226.5406.5406.5106.540-0.040-0.615,56711/03/20226.4406.5906.4406.5800.2303.622,13910/03/20226.4506.4606.3506.350-0.060-0.946,21909/03/20226.4306.5006.3106.4100.0000.0031,29808/03/20226.5706.5706.4106.410-0.160-2.449,10907/03/20226.5706.5906.5706.5700.0000.007,74804/03/20226.5606.6006.5606.5700.0300.468,81503/03/20226.5906.5906.5006.540-0.060-0.9122,02702/03/20226.5906.6006.5906.6000.0300.4614,51401/03/20226.5906.6406.5706.5700.0000.0013,81128/02/20226.6006.6406.5206.570-0.030-0.4528,10725/02/20226.7006.7006.6006.600-0.170-2.5127,55524/02/20226.8806.8806.7706.770-0.110-1.603,86323/02/20226.8006.8806.8006.8800.1702.5311,49222/02/20226.7806.7806.7106.710-0.070-1.035,42621/02/20226.7806.7806.7806.7800.0000.0053118/02/20226.7356.7806.7006.7800.0801.199,84317/02/20226.8906.8906.6806.700-0.190-2.767,35516/02/20226.8106.8906.7406.8900.0300.449,64815/02/20226.8506.8606.8506.860-0.030-0.4411,70114/02/20226.8806.8906.8206.8900.0100.151,71011/02/20226.8706.8806.8106.8800.0100.1511,10810/02/20226.8906.8906.8706.870-0.020-0.292,45809/02/20226.9006.9006.8306.8900.0000.0021,93208/02/20226.8906.9006.8106.8900.0000.0076,68707/02/20226.8006.8906.8006.8900.0901.3212,46204/02/20226.7906.8006.7906.8000.0701.045,67803/02/20226.8006.8006.7106.730-0.110-1.613,16702/02/20226.8306.8406.7206.8400.0000.002,85801/02/20226.6206.8506.6206.8400.2503.7965631/01/20226.8506.8506.5056.590-0.230-3.3714,85728/01/20226.7506.8206.6006.8200.0701.044,72127/01/20226.8006.8206.7506.750-0.050-0.743,28325/01/20226.8106.8106.7506.800-0.010-0.158,45724/01/20226.8006.8106.6606.810-0.010-0.1510,31121/01/20226.8206.8206.7306.820-0.010-0.156,83820/01/20226.8006.9006.7306.8300.0300.4416,73419/01/20226.7006.8206.7006.8000.0000.006,87118/01/20226.8506.8506.8006.800-0.050-0.7311,20517/01/20226.7806.9006.7806.8500.0701.0324,98814/01/20226.6806.7806.6006.7800.1101.655,10113/01/20226.8006.8006.6706.670-0.080-1.1921,15812/01/20226.8106.8106.7506.750-0.060-0.8812,88511/01/20226.8506.8506.8006.8100.0100.1513,50510/01/20226.9006.9006.8006.8000.0000.0031,19707/01/20226.8006.9206.8006.800-0.020-0.294,67206/01/20226.9606.9806.8006.820-0.150-2.1535,22605/01/20226.9306.9806.9306.9700.0500.7227904/01/20226.9806.9806.9106.920-0.060-0.868,44231/12/20217.0007.0006.9806.980-0.020-0.2989430/12/20216.9007.0006.8707.0000.1301.899,73929/12/20216.6806.9006.6606.8700.1902.8411,18424/12/20216.6006.6806.6006.6800.2804.386,45123/12/20216.3906.4006.3906.4000.0300.4720,97222/12/20216.4006.4006.3206.370-0.030-0.476,84721/12/20216.3806.6806.3806.4000.0000.004,53920/12/20216.4806.4806.4006.400-0.020-0.313,93517/12/20216.4506.4806.4206.4200.0200.3113,36016/12/20216.1806.4006.1806.4000.2504.0742,88815/12/20216.1506.1506.1506.150-0.030-0.4916,33314/12/20216.2006.2006.1706.180-0.020-0.322,60213/12/20216.1906.2006.1606.2000.0500.813,30810/12/20216.2006.2006.1506.150-0.050-0.812,41509/12/20216.2006.2006.1506.2000.0000.0010,22208/12/20216.2206.2406.1506.200-0.020-0.3216,40407/12/20216.2406.2406.2206.220-0.020-0.322,72606/12/20216.2506.2506.2006.240-0.010-0.167,13203/12/20216.2106.2506.2006.2500.0400.6426,19902/12/20216.2506.2506.2006.2100.0100.161,34201/12/20216.2506.2506.2006.200-0.050-0.8017,25430/11/20216.2506.2506.2006.2500.0000.005,46229/11/20216.2506.2506.2006.2500.0000.0016,04126/11/20216.2706.2706.2506.250-0.030-0.4825,90825/11/20216.3006.3006.2806.280-0.050-0.796,51324/11/20216.3006.3306.2856.3300.0300.488,70923/11/20216.3406.3406.3006.300-0.040-0.6317,88322/11/20216.3506.3506.3406.340-0.010-0.161,99019/11/20216.3306.3506.3106.3500.0000.0011,49718/11/20216.3006.3506.3006.3500.0300.471,78317/11/20216.4006.4006.3006.320-0.010-0.162,36716/11/20216.3606.3906.3306.330-0.030-0.475,78915/11/20216.5806.5806.3506.360-0.220-3.3418,86212/11/20216.5906.5906.5806.580-0.020-0.30711/11/20216.5506.6006.5506.6000.0500.76210/11/20216.6006.6006.5506.550-0.050-0.761309/11/20216.6256.6506.5506.6000.0500.7621,14208/11/20216.6506.6506.5506.550-0.100-1.5028,55105/11/20216.6606.6606.6306.650-0.030-0.459,36404/11/20216.6806.6806.6806.6800.0200.308403/11/20216.7006.7006.6606.6600.0600.913,71402/11/20216.6606.6606.6006.600-0.065-0.9849801/11/20216.7006.7006.6006.665-0.035-0.521,16529/10/20216.7006.7406.7006.700-0.060-0.898,09028/10/20216.7606.7606.7606.7600.0600.9015527/10/20216.8206.8406.7006.700-0.100-1.473,49826/10/20216.8306.8506.7906.8000.0500.7415,47825/10/20216.6606.8306.6206.7500.1502.2715,48522/10/20216.6906.6906.6006.6000.0000.006,02421/10/20216.6006.7006.6006.6000.0500.762,86020/10/20216.5006.7006.5006.5500.1001.5510,41019/10/20216.4506.5006.4506.4500.0000.004,16418/10/20216.4906.5006.4506.4500.0000.002,27215/10/20216.5006.5006.4506.4500.0000.001,11914/10/20216.5006.5006.4506.450-0.050-0.775,32513/10/20216.5006.5006.4506.5000.0500.7819,69012/10/20216.4506.4606.4406.4500.0801.267,74611/10/20216.3706.4506.3706.370-0.010-0.1618,17908/10/20216.3706.4506.3506.3800.0300.4720,47307/10/20216.3306.3506.3006.3500.0000.006,41206/10/20216.3506.3606.3506.3500.0300.477,73905/10/20216.3006.3206.2206.320-0.010-0.162,87604/10/20216.3306.3306.3006.3300.0100.162,71101/10/20216.3006.3206.2906.3200.0300.486,70630/09/20216.2006.3006.2006.2900.0901.451,13029/09/20216.2006.2006.2006.200-0.100-1.5930428/09/20216.3006.3006.3006.3000.0000.0063627/09/20216.2506.3006.1206.3000.0100.1624,42524/09/20216.1706.2906.1106.2900.1201.947,10423/09/20216.2006.2006.1706.170-0.020-0.321,48922/09/20216.1306.1906.1206.190-0.030-0.482,94221/09/20216.0906.2306.0906.2200.1302.136,24720/09/20216.1006.1306.0906.0900.0000.004,31617/09/20216.2406.2406.0906.090-0.010-0.167,82316/09/20216.2506.2506.1006.100-0.070-1.1319,18715/09/20216.1706.2606.1706.1700.0100.166,77814/09/20216.1706.1706.1406.160-0.010-0.161,74513/09/20216.2006.2306.1006.170-0.040-0.6423,07810/09/20216.3806.3806.2106.210-0.110-1.748,10809/09/20216.4306.4306.3006.320-0.130-2.026,41908/09/20216.4106.4506.4106.450-0.100-1.538,64007/09/20216.4906.5506.4106.5500.0701.0810,05906/09/20216.5606.6006.4506.480-0.080-1.226,13603/09/20216.5006.5606.5006.560-0.040-0.6114,43902/09/20216.6006.6006.5906.6000.0200.302,80701/09/20216.5506.5906.5006.5800.0300.463,85131/08/20216.6006.6006.5006.550-0.030-0.4620,33230/08/20216.6306.6306.5806.5800.0701.081,19127/08/20216.5706.5706.5006.510-0.050-0.7630,46726/08/20216.7006.7006.5606.560-0.120-1.801,52425/08/20216.5606.6806.5606.6800.0801.211,24524/08/20216.5906.6006.5906.6000.0000.002,70723/08/20216.6006.6606.6006.6000.0000.005,22820/08/20216.6106.6206.6006.600-0.010-0.157,94019/08/20216.6306.6306.6106.610-0.040-0.602,92118/08/20216.7006.7006.6106.650-0.050-0.7540117/08/20216.6906.7006.6106.7000.0701.067,55016/08/20216.7006.7006.6306.630-0.070-1.045,48513/08/20216.7006.7006.6906.7000.0100.157,44712/08/20216.8406.8406.6906.690-0.010-0.1522,233

 ( buying/selling 100,000 shares here will definitely move the market , most months )

 however more obtuse exposure to the agriculture  via RFF ( agricultural  landlord ) and D2O ( water entitlements ) ( i hold both) is an option for medium term investors

 well higher prices  is partly guaranteed   by falling currencies ( ie real purchasing power  , a.k.a. inflation ) which looks like in many cases rising input costs  , however extra regulation complexity ( climate policy targets , workplace safety , etc etc ) will flow through  as extra costs as well 

the agricultural ( and aquaculture ) sector  don't have a solid record  of shareholder returns in many cases  , and those unreliable returns  tends to deter investors ( especially at retail level )

now SHV ( i have held it in the past )  has been a fairly solid company  but buffeted by headwinds and tailwinds  from currency fluctuations  and supply dramas at major competitors  ( Californian water shortages  and regular  fires in the area among them )

 agriculture can be a tough  game  , take the adventures  of CGC [ i don't hold ] despite several products  being grown in enclosed areas , it manages to find plenty of dramas and setbacks


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## Country Lad (12 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Will be very curious to see outcomes over the long term on stocks like this, can higher prices for their product outweigh rising input costs?



_“This positive outlook is driving an increase in fourth quarter activity and supporting export volumes, forward contracted grain sales and supply chain margins.”_

I suppose the medium and maybe the longer term outlook would depend on their forward sales and pricing. All very well to have strong harvests and plenty of volume but their results will depend on how they are selling that volume.

I know it is pedantic, but isn't the outlook driven by the increased activity instead of the way they have it.


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## InsvestoBoy (12 August 2022)

Country Lad said:


> _“This positive outlook is driving an increase in fourth quarter activity and supporting export volumes, forward contracted grain sales and supply chain margins.”_
> 
> I suppose the medium and maybe the longer term outlook would depend on their forward sales and pricing. All very well to have strong harvests and plenty of volume but their results will depend on how they are selling that volume.
> 
> I know it is pedantic, but isn't the outlook driven by the increased activity instead of the way they have it.




No I think they have it worded right mate. 

Most commodity business like grains or energy or industrial metals is driven by the forward/futures curve. Positive outlook == better forward prices == incentive to turn the tap on.


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## divs4ever (26 October 2022)

for the coming month 's competition   my selection is GNC  ,

 earlier this month  i was caught between  GNC , UMG , and CGC  ( i hold none of those three stocks )

 CGC had a big jump today  leaving me thinking  in is liable to run out of puff , by the end of November  (  so i eliminated that one first )

 UMG  would have been my pick if i thought times were going to get REALLY tough  in November/December  ( but still remains on my watch-list )

 so GNC it is , currently facing weather related , and cost-related headwinds  ,  and 'smart money ' rushing into battery related stocks  , which MIGHT leave be an acceptable entry price  , and is liable   to get some support from the ' stocking stuffers ' leading up to Christmas

 a gain during the month ( of November) would be good enough for me  whether i buy the shares or not

 i was tempted to select MQG  but have no intention of adding to my existing  holding  at prices above $30  ( and so ruins my motive of being in the competition  . keeping tabs on shares i am looking to buy , at a price )


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## divs4ever (30 October 2022)

Russia Suspends Participation In Ukraine Grain Deal After "Massive" Drone Attack On Black Sea Fleet​





						Russia Suspends Participation In Ukraine Grain Deal After "Massive" Drone Attack On Black Sea Fleet  | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




 CURSES .. is liable to spike the share price  , before the start of next months  comp. 

 i was at a presentation  of shareholders  earlier  this week  

 and tried to describe to one lady   that LUCK was my super-power  ( and not only in investing )

 TAKE CARE this might really rattle the markets 

 ( can i get some GNC  at $7.50  in the coming week ?? )


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