# Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio



## aus_trader

G'day all,

I have been participating in a few of the forums here (and in other forums) and wanted to post my own stock portfolio for a while.

Although I've had good success with few of my stocks in the past, will start this portfolio fresh for all to see. I find that fellow forum members can help to keep an eye out for any negative news developments or economic changes that may affect the stocks in the portfolio.

Although it's a longer term portfolio, it will not be a "Buy and Hold" portfolio. So I will manage it such that if a stock drops a certain % in value it will get sold and I will not tolerate too much portfolio erosion.

The first stock in the portfolio is Capitol Health Limited (*CAJ*). It's a medical imaging/scanning company that has fallen heavily in price and fallen out of favour. I think selling may be over done and price may recover in the medium term. It was a market darling when it was trading at higher prices and paying dividends at the time.

The second stock is Gateway Lifestyle Group (*GTY*). Bought mainly due to the story that there would be more of managed retirement living estates as increased numbers of Aussie population retires and as the aged population grows as a percentage.

GTY has a growing number of retirement estates that is contributing to it's income and currently pays close to 5% Dividend and just started their Dividend Re-investment Plan (DRP).




Will look to add stocks with good stories and potential to appreciate as I continue to research stocks on the ASX.


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## Rypieee

aus_trader said:


> G'day all,
> 
> I have been participating in a few of the forums here (and in other forums) and wanted to post my own stock portfolio for a while.
> 
> Although I've had good success with few of my stocks in the past, will start this portfolio fresh for all to see. I find that fellow forum members can help to keep an eye out for any negative news developments or economic changes that may affect the stocks in the portfolio.
> 
> Although it's a longer term portfolio, it will not be a "Buy and Hold" portfolio. So I will manage it such that if a stock drops a certain % in value it will get sold and I will not tolerate too much portfolio erosion.
> 
> The first stock in the portfolio is Capitol Health Limited (*CAJ*). It's a medical imaging/scanning company that has fallen heavily in price and fallen out of favour. I think selling may be over done and price may recover in the medium term. It was a market darling when it was trading at higher prices and paying dividends at the time.
> 
> The second stock is Gateway Lifestyle Group (*GTY*). Bought mainly due to the story that there would be more of managed retirement living estates as increased numbers of Aussie population retires and as the aged population grows as a percentage.
> 
> GTY has a growing number of retirement estates that is contributing to it's income and currently pays close to 5% Dividend and just started their Dividend Re-investment Plan (DRP).
> 
> View attachment 71428
> 
> 
> Will look to add stocks with good stories and potential to appreciate as I continue to research stocks on the ASX.




I like CAJ in your portfolio, especially after the Budget's proposal to remove the freeze on the bulk billing incentive for diagnostic imaging and pathology services 
Positive catalyst for a stock like CAJ and could see some earnings upgrades flow through to the stock later on down the track as the business starts gaining momentum again from the regulatory change


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## aus_trader

I do like your macro/fundamental analysis and I know that in your own portfolio it has saved you a bundle when you said you exited NIB Holdings (NHF) on 11 May 17' :



So despite what you may about doing only one type of analysis, I'd say keep up the good work !

Yeah, I think CAJ can recover it's price based on the macro view, it may not get to it's previous highs when it was paying good dividends, but that's OK.


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## aus_trader

So despite what you may* hear* about doing only one type of analysis, I'd say keep up the good work !


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## aus_trader

Hey Peter2, Great to have your keen eyes looking out for me as well .


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## aus_trader

Added ANTIPODES GLOBAL INV FPO (*APL*) to the portfolio today.

I've been looking for and researching ways to try and hedge the portfolio from shorter to medium term downtrends in the market. Without shorting stocks directly which can be risky, I've looked at instruments that can go up as market falls as well as Exchange Traded Funds (ETF).

Found APL that manages a portfolio of stocks by taking long and short positions to try to minimise losses in a market down trend, so bought it.


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## aus_trader

Did some stock research in the long weekend and came across industrial property managing firm "Property Link Group" (LPG). Listed on ASX recently, however company reports mention of future distributions of close to 7.5% at current prices so added to portfolio.


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## aus_trader

Added Leisure and entertainment company Donaco International (DNA) to portfolio today.


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## aus_trader

Have been looking for new entrants to the portfolio. Few looked interesting but looking deeper at them, it seemed not the right time to buy them as I needed to see improved results. I will monitor their progress...

3P learning (3PL) has caught my eye and some of their educational products looked promising in my humble opinion. Recently done a restructure to keep costs down while they are trying to grow sales. So it was bought today to add to the portfolio as below:


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## aus_trader

Added Fleetwood Corp (FWD) today, which is has a few business divisions including builder of affordable housing such as modular homes and manufacturer of Recreational Vehicles (RV's) such as caravans.

It was also interesting to read today, that FWD has signed a supply agreement with Gateway Lifestyles Ltd (GTY), which is another stock in this portfolio. The supply agreement is for building modular homes for GTY's managed retirement home portfolio.


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## Garpal Gumnut

Been in and out of CAJ at a profit. Good on you.

I won't be in it now, would I have had had your prescience.

MTS seems to be bolting. 

Any ideas?

gg


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## aus_trader

Hi GG,

That's great to hear regarding CAJ. Of course in a shorter-term trading scenario I would have considered taking profits at least partially. But in this portfolio I'm happy to hold on...

I've had a go at short-term trading with stocks in the past and results have not been very good. Good periods of profit followed by string of losses etc. 

I've thought about posting a speculative portfolio as well which would include some small capped companies trading for cents or fractions of cents such as mining hopefuls and some new tech companies. Stories would have to offer the potential to multiply the initial investment to weigh against the risk of losing the entire investment as these tiny caps can file for bankruptcy when it runs out of money. This was the case for the technology hopeful Ceramic Fuel Cells (CFU) which I mentioned in the first posting of this thread. If I do decide to post, it will Not be included in this portfolio as it could muddle up the performance of this portfolio. I'll think about it in the new Financial Year and see if I decide to put minimal amounts (money that I can afford to lose) into any speculative companies that I come across when I do my research.

I actually looked at MTS a year or two ago, which had an OK groceries and liquor business. But for a number of reasons I brushed it aside. Reasons included too much Debt on the books, too much competition to it's Mitre 10 hardware chain from Bunnings and Masters.

After you pointed it out, I had a look at it today and it looks like they have done quite a turn-around including: 

Increasing the Mitre10 profitability perhaps helped by the exit of Masters competition
Acquisition of Home timber and Hardware to generate bigger profits in the hardware business
Paying down $686m of debt since 2014, leaving it minimal debt on the books
So I'll keep an eye out on this one. Thanks for pointing it out GG and yes it is bolting...


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## aus_trader

Sold Gateway Lifestyle Group (GTY) and removed from portfolio. Have been watching this stock for a while and it's been dropping in value since the day I bought it. Also there was a small downgrade with it's guidance on 15/06/207. There has been negative press about another peer in this sector Aveo Group (AOG), which has dropped down with a gap. GTY Went Ex-Dividend yesterday, so I should collect that dividend payment despite selling at a loss.




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

First Stock for the new financial year is Mantra Group Ltd (MTR), which was bought today for $3.05. It is the nation's 2nd largest hotel/resort operator according to company information. Has been on a shopping spree recently including acquiring a hotel in Hawaii.




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Added the company "Service Stream (SSM)" to the portfolio today. This is stock that has appeared in quite a few of the forums, so I've dug into it to find out what the story is about. From my research this has been a beneficiary of the National Broadband Network (NBN) due to the network services it offers and this is probably reflected in the run up in the share price. As the NBN is still new, SSM may continue to benefit with the services it offers, as it has done in the last few years with growing profits. SSM has also upgraded it's earnings outlook for FY17' as announced on 16-05-17.

Also it offers a dividend, which is always welcome with any of the stocks in this portfolio.




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Although time is short, finally managed to get the *"**Speculative Stock Portfolio" *thread off the ground today with a thesis sized essay as it's first post. Although it would have been less time consuming to include the speculative investments in this portfolio, I am glad I took the time to post a new thread as the expectations and risks are quite different for each portfolio and it would be difficult to measure performance in each category if combined. Put simply it would have muddled up the results of this portfolio if I included the speculative 'hit and miss' type stocks, so it's better in it's own high risk portfolio.


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## aus_trader

Got busy with posting messages in the Spec portfolio that I didn't get to update the latest buy in this portfolio.

Added a smaller parcel of Nearmap Ltd (NEA) to this portfolio. Main reason is it's 3D mapping technology. If it wasn't for the new 3D mapping technology I would have probably brushed the stock aside like a lot of stocks that I come across, after all google maps does the job right? In terms of numbers, the revenues have been going up steadily over the last few years. It's hard to predict when the profits will start rolling in as they are spending on R&D as well as in increasing sales, but it's on the right track in my opinion.




 Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Last weekend of school term break, so taking the family out on a weekend getaway, so thought to write a quick update on a stock that I added to the portfolio today.

Codan Ltd (CDA) is a company that manufactures metal detectors used by mining/prospecting companies as well as individuals looking for some ancient coins or that elusive nugget hidden beneath the ground. These detectors are also used by military operations to detect hidden land mines.

It also manufactures radio communication equipment that is used by military, paramedic, security and other critical or remote operations.

The share price has run up on the back of improving sales / profits over the past year, but the company is predicting another bumper year, so I bought a parcel of shares today. CDA has also improved it's financial position by paying down debt and has ~$20m cash so I think they will continue paying dividends as well.




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Reviewed all the positions in the portfolio last night and found a "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the CAJ chart. It's a chart pattern and has been around for a while, I have marked them on chart as to what I saw:



As this may indicate short term weakness, I took some profits off CAJ by selling 1/2 the position on market this morning for 0.255c.

Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Shine Corp (SHJ) is a Legal firm that has heavily fallen and in my opinion may be due for some recovery, so bought some shares today. It was promoted by the famous Erin Brockovich (not Julia Roberts who played her role in the movie) with advertisements etc.

SHJ has done some acquisitions with debt funding and it may be taking some time to integrate these businesses. These acquisitions once integrated and gains traction, should contribute well to Shine's bottom line I reckon. 

With acquisitions one needs to be careful I think as what has happened to the fellow law firm Slater & Gordon (SGH). I think most of you know the story but in case anyone didn't catch any news on this, I'll briefly run through the fall of this Aussie icon... Although some regulatory changes may have also affected it's profitability the main contributor towards it's fall was an acquisition it made. While doing really well in the Aussie market, SGH made a mammoth size bid for a UK law firm and funded it via debt. Along with issues with integrating this massive business it also ran into headwinds due to UK regulatory changes to personal injury laws and it's share price has fallen to all time lows at the moment...

SHJ is also involved in the personal injury law space, so I checked as much as I could to see how much it's business is exposed to. Company states that it has no exposure to UK personal injury cases.

SHJ is also working with a larger law firm IMF Bentham Ltd (IMF) for "Oakey contamination" class action.

Not bought necessarily for dividend income as it may or may not pay it while going through the recovery phase. Last year paid a final dividend but the interim dividend was cut.


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## aus_trader

Been sifting through a lot of hay lately...

..To find that needle in a haystack, mainly in the speculative space to add a position to the speculative portfolio. Few stories here and there but bit risky at this stage with prices jumping around all over the place and trading at cents...

The more established companies are a different story and well run companies can attract a premium to it's trading price as can be seen with the hefty premium offered to Programmed Maintenance (PRG) take-over.

So I've been looking at similar industrial stocks in the service sector and noticed that mining services companies are making a come-back. Couple of the heavy-weights in this sector Monadelphous Grp (MND) and WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR) for example seems to be on the up up and away...

So looked at a few of the small to mid cap companies and narrowed the selection down to NRW Holdings Limited (NWH) to add to this longer term portfolio. Like it's peers the revenues has been in decline since the mining/exploration slow down, but starting to turn it around. Net debt also reduced by almost half from around $80m to around $40m. Preserving capital by having the dividend cut at the moment. Also bought a drill and blast business to grow the revenue streams.


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## aus_trader

One of the stocks in this portfolio Codan (CDA) has won order for an Emergency Communications contract today.


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## Boggo

aus_trader said:


> One of the stocks in this portfolio Codan (CDA) has won order for an Emergency Communications contract today.




I may be wrong but I reckon that expectation may have already been priced into the uptrend that has been.
I did hold CDA for quite a while but saw a bit of selling over the last few months so I moved CDA funds to PTM, time will tell if that was a good idea or not


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## aus_trader

You are right, only time will tell Boggo, I guess any new contracts could still improve the bottom line going forward for CDA...


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## aus_trader

Bought one and let one go...

I've been monitoring Cash Converters International (CCV) and some of it's peers that operate in the same space of Goods lending / Short term personal finance etc. Since the days of just being your corner shop, CCV has become quite a large international player in the retail/personal finance space. It's had a few set-backs from what I have seen and now seem to be turning the business around:

Outsourced personal loan collections to ASX-listed Collections House (CLH) since CCV got into trouble with the regulators with compliance issues

Restructured leadership
Launched Medium Amount Credit Contract (MACC) to expand it's lending to higher income population
With one master stroke turned the UK business around that has been struggling for years
Also CCV dabbled in a new venture to combine car finance with leasing type arrangement but since it hasn't really gained traction they've restructured it into a more traditional car finance model.

Little bit about how it turned the struggling UK business around that might be interesting... The UK cash converters business has been loss making for years as far as I can remember and has been a drag on the company profit. So how did the UK business make a profit this time around ? McDonald's / Jim's mowing comes to mind... why they operate a successful franchise model. That's what CCV did for it's UK business as the company states "The UK business has been restructured and now operates solely as a master franchisor with 202 franchised stores. These changes have moved the UK business back into profit..."

CCV is not the only company that has had trouble with lending compliance. Some of it's peers have also run into trouble since the rules and regulations have changed for short term personal loans and one peer is facing class action from dissatisfied customers.

So CCV was bought and the one let go from the portfolio was the hotel operator Mantra Grp (MTR). It's been going nowhere stuck in a sideways grind for quite some time which was frustrating. When I saw it made a decisive move down, I decided to get out, so it was sold.




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

The Leisure and entertainment company Donaco International (DNA) also leaves the portfolio today having drifted south for over a month...


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## aus_trader

The Preliminary Full Year results for CAJ had an interesting piece of info about capital management as follows: "Capital management in FY18 expected to include share buy back and dividend reinstatement"
Does that mean CAJ might start paying Dividends again?


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## Cam019

aus_trader said:


> The Preliminary Full Year results for CAJ had an interesting piece of info about capital management as follows: "Capital management in FY18 expected to include share buy back and dividend reinstatement"
> Does that mean CAJ might start paying Dividends again?



Yeah, that's what it means.


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## aus_trader

Cam019 said:


> Yeah, that's what it means.



Thanks Cam, Looks like CAJ is doing well... I've also found some research report that goes into the CAJ numbers and it's turnaround story. Hope it's OK to post it here Joe?

" ...*
Capitol Health’s continued recovery and potential unicorn*

_Dean Fergie, Cyan Investment Management_

Radiology and diagnostic imaging service provider, Capitol Health (CAJ), has announced their preliminary full year EBITDA result of $22m, 10% ahead of prior guidance. Along with the previously announced sale of their NSW assets (settling August 2017), the company’s total debt of $50m will be eliminated taking the business to a net cash balance of close to $45m. Factoring this in, the company has announced both a re-instated dividend and a share buy-back. Importantly, guidance for FY2018 (including just 2 months of the contracted NSW assets) has been set at ~$20m EBITDA.

Last financial year Capitol Health became another roll-up casualty, expanding too rapidly and making debt funded acquisitions that were not effectively managed or integrated. Adding fuel to the fire, proposed changes to the Medicare rebate scheme saw demand for high-margin MRIs drop, earnings fell and the share-price plummeted, almost 90% from its highs. New management was brought in in November 2016 and a $38m capital raising was completed in February 2017. In June 2017, the company announced the sale of their troublesome NSW assets including Southern Radiology to I-MED for ~$80m. Importantly after a year of decline, Medicare system growth is returning to longer-term growth rates.

There is no doubt Capitol Health’s footprint of over 50 Victorian radiology clinics is a strategic and valuable defensive healthcare asset. On those assets alone, a prospective forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x looks fair. Government restrictions for issuing new MRI licenses means barriers to entry are high and Capitol Health’s open register makes it an open takeover target. Further value can be attributed to Capitol Health’s JV with CITIC in China’s diagnostic imaging market and Capitol Health’s shareholding in US-based artificial intelligence company Enlitic is shaping up to be next tech ‘unicorn’ and could add serious value to Capitol Health shareholders.

..."


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## aus_trader

Also significant news on NRW Holdings (NWH) with acquisition of Golding Group.


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## aus_trader

Two stocks sold today from the portfolio.

First NRW Holdings (NWH) which had some significant news with Golding Group acquisition rallied hard today and sold it for a very good gain. Normally would be happy with a gain like this (close to 50%) after a few years of holding a stock, so when it happened within a month of buying NWH, I am pretty wrapped with the result.

The other stock leaving the portfolio is 3P Learning Ltd (3PL). Although the story has not changed since buying, after some period of consolidation, 3PL is moving sharply to the downside. So sadly decided to sell it and monitor it's progress as there may be another time to buy it again...

Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Got a chance to go through the SSM 2017 FY results. Numbers looked pretty good to me and they've beefed up the dividend as a result.


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## aus_trader

Bought Oil Producer Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) today. Very good numbers out today and it has doubled the dividend compared to last year. I had it in my watch list of stocks to consider but as it made a loss last year I wanted to see if there would be an improvement this year to turn a profit. Based on the numbers what a turnaround... From a price point of view, the stock gapped up and rallied so I thought to buy a parcel.


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## Boggo

Boggo said:


> I may be wrong but I reckon that expectation may have already been priced into the uptrend that has been.
> I did hold CDA for quite a while but saw a bit of selling over the last few months so *I moved CDA funds to PTM*, time will tell if that was a good idea or not






aus_trader said:


> Bought one and let one go...
> 
> *So CCV was bought* and the one let go from the portfolio was the hotel operator Mantra Grp (MTR). It's been going nowhere stuck in a sideways grind for quite some time which was frustrating. When I saw it made a decisive move down, I decided to get out, so it was sold.




CDA still seems to be hesitating and your CCV popped up in my weekly, could be a turn up from here.

Looks like the chart got in first on the positive news from PTM today, love it when that happens 

Some similarities in these two charts !


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## aus_trader

Let go of Nearmap Ltd (NEA). It had a nice run up but since it was going back down past my buy price I've tried to prevent it going too much into the red !

Closed Positions:


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## tech/a

Personally I think your holding some far too long in HOPE rather than any valid reason
Certainly on a price (Chart Perspective) NEA,GTY,DNA None of these would have been in
my portfolio over this time period.


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## McLovin

aus_trader said:


> Let go of Nearmap Ltd (NEA). It had a nice run up but since it was going back down past my buy price I've tried to prevent it going too much into the red !
> 
> Closed Positions:
> View attachment 72417




I may have missed something, but what makes something a buy and what makes it a sell? It seems like you just buy something because it feels right and then sell when it doesn't feel right anymore. For a medium/long term portfolio there isn't much conviction.


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## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Personally I think your holding some far too long in HOPE rather than any valid reason
> Certainly on a price (Chart Perspective) NEA,GTY,DNA None of these would have been in
> my portfolio over this time period.



It's a tough balance to get right Tech/a. Especially in the case of NEA it was painful to see a nice paper profit turn into a small loss, a loss nevertheless. Would've been nice if I got to exit with even a small profit or break even given the price went as high as 80c. I will be looking for locking in profits more actively going forward but it'll have to be well thought out as I still want to leave room for longer term retention of stocks.


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## aus_trader

McLovin said:


> I may have missed something, but what makes something a buy and what makes it a sell? It seems like you just buy something because it feels right and then sell when it doesn't feel right anymore. For a medium/long term portfolio there isn't much conviction.



No, you haven't missed anything. This is the way I go about investing and I do a fair bit of stock research to come up with portfolio candidates. I assume you wanted to know what makes a buy/sell such as condition A followed by B followed by C triggers buy/sell. Unfortunately don't have exact/precise method like that and everyone is different in their style of trading/investing I guess. But I do monitor the stocks and charts to manage the portfolio.


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## tech/a

It is a tough balance I agree.

However I've noticed over the years that the more stock I hold
in a portfolio and the longer I hold them the smoother the equity
curve and the less Profit I make.


*Shorter term
*
More profit and I've now flattened the curve and increased profit by
(1) Ratchetting stops. Regardless of direction the trade takes off in
(2) Adding to positions when a pattern or level is taken out.
(3) Ratchetting a trailing stop when multiple positions are on a single trade
(4) Trade a max of 5 Stocks.
(5) Ruthless trailing stops after 3 pyramids in a stock (BUB trade and example).
(6) If a trade is 1R in profit never take a loss stop at B/E
(7) *All* pyramid trades have the same trailing stop loss.


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## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> It is a tough balance I agree.
> 
> However I've noticed over the years that the more stock I hold
> in a portfolio and the longer I hold them the smoother the equity
> curve and the less Profit I make.
> 
> 
> *Shorter term
> *
> More profit and I've now flattened the curve and increased profit by
> (1) Ratchetting stops. Regardless of direction the trade takes off in
> (2) Adding to positions when a pattern or level is taken out.
> (3) Ratchetting a trailing stop when multiple positions are on a single trade
> (4) Trade a max of 5 Stocks.
> (5) Ruthless trailing stops after 3 pyramids in a stock (BUB trade and example).
> (6) If a trade is 1R in profit never take a loss stop at B/E
> (7) *All* pyramid trades have the same trailing stop loss.




Wow! I am not going to be that aggressive tech/a, but there is a lot of good points to take note from and I will consider a bit more aggressive style to protect my positions going forward... even though I am aiming for a longer term hold.


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## aus_trader

Generally speaking I've been keeping this portfolio to the smaller to medium cap end of the market. Today bought one of the biggest stocks on the asx for this portfolio, in fact it's in the top 100 by market cap.

Company is South32 Ltd (S32), and it is a spin off from BHP several years ago. As shown in the annual report the numbers are improving and it's paying dividends, in fact it intends to pay out 40% of profits as dividends going forward. Another reason I was attracted to S32 was it's Manganese assets. Manganese has gone up this year and from information I've looked at in forums, articles and brokers it's predicted to continue this trend... So although I may have bought a speculative Manganese explorer in my speculative portfolio, I decided to go with the diversified, profitable, dividend paying stock to get some Manganese exposure and S32 has both Australian and South African Manganese deposits currently being mined.




I also paid and applied for NRW shares through the Share Purchase Plan (SPP) letter that was sent to me. At this stage I don't know if any shares will be allocated since most likely applications will be heavily scaled back to raise their proposed $5m from SPP, as the company states:

"NRW reserves the right (at its absolute discretion) to scale back applications under the SPP if the total demand exceeds $5 million."

If Any shares are allocated, I will update the above table with the SPP shares.


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## aus_trader

Propertylink Group (PLG) has had a positive announcement on Friday with a larger Property management firm Centuria Capital Ltd (CNI) acquiring 17% of PLG which seems to have caused the share price to gap up on PLG chart.

Last week I also received a dividend cheque from PLG which was nice.


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## aus_trader

Few shares got allocated with the NRW Holdings Limited (NWH) Share Purchase Plan. I have updated the portfolio with this allocation.


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## aus_trader

A cloud hangs over Shine Corporate Ltd (SHJ) with the class action being lodged against it. It was a good recovery story but I'll keep my capital out of it while the lawyers battle it out with the lawyers. Although SHJ has said they will vigorously defend it, if they lose there may be a big payout to be made which could hit the share price hard.

So while all this is going on I'll be happy to watch it from the sidelines... Just sold it for 61c.

Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Forgot to update table with the 2c Dividend I received for SHJ. Will update for future posts, as I cannot edit the table above.


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## Porper

aus_trader said:


> A cloud hangs over Shine Corporate Ltd (SHJ) with the class action being lodged against it. It was a good recovery story but I'll keep my capital out of it while the lawyers battle it out with the lawyers. Although SHJ has said they will vigorously defend it, if they lose there may be a big payout to be made which could hit the share price hard.
> 
> So while all this is going on I'll be happy to watch it from the sidelines... Just sold it for 61c.
> 
> Closed Positions:
> View attachment 72785



A good example of making a profit with a low win rate. This is what most newbies don't understand. You can be very profitable with a 25% win rate. However you have to cut losses early and let winners run. Most find this difficult to do. If after a year your table looks like the one above you are doing ok.


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## aus_trader

Porper said:


> A good example of making a profit with a low win rate. This is what most newbies don't understand. You can be very profitable with a 25% win rate. However you have to cut losses early and let winners run. Most find this difficult to do. If after a year your table looks like the one above you are doing ok.



Yes agree, good observation mate.


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## aus_trader

Beach Energy (BPT) is in the process of transforming into a bigger company with the recent announcement of Acquisition/Merger with Lattice Energy. It would be moving closer to the larger oil players on ASX such as Oil Search (OSH) and Santos (STO) in terms of market size and quantity of oil/gas production as a combined/merged entity.


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## aus_trader

Added to CAJ by buying a smaller quantity today. It has been consolidating for a while but with the dividends on the horizon as announced by the company and share buyback already taking place I think there is further upside in this stock.


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## aus_trader

One of the previous stocks that was sold, Mantra Group Ltd is having a good run. Looks like the hotel operator is being taken over at a nice premium. It's a pity that I have sold it already .


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## aus_trader

Sold Fleetwood Corp (FWD) for a profit including dividend.

Closed Positions:


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## kid hustlr

Surely brokerage is killing you?


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## aus_trader

kid hustlr said:


> Surely brokerage is killing you?



Surely Not...
I don't post brokerage here as I have a variable brokerage account which has lower fees if I make more trades. So I just take care of the brokerage cost at tax time. I don't have time to check each trade to see exact amount charged as it varies.


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## aus_trader

Got allocated shares for Beach Energy (*BPT*) through the entitlement plan, paid for them a while ago but forgot to check them till I got the statement mailed out to me.

Also having another go at 3P Learning Ltd (*3PL*). Same story as when I bought them earlier, a global educational software provider that has a good product mix for schools and other educational providers including for much younger children with software programs such as "Reading Eggs", which helps kids to learn how to read. Hoping it will be a  better outcome this time...


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## aus_trader

Bought two stocks today, an established miner for this portfolio and a cashed up explorer for the speculative portfolio.

Stock for this portfolio is copper/gold producer OZ Minerals Limited (*OZL*), with an impressive cash balance of $639m and no debt. This should give them plenty of room to develop further mines and continue to pay dividends.

The other stock is a Oil/Gas explorer with more cash in it's books than what the company is worth. Yes it has $352m cash with a market cap of only $319m at current price. To find out more see my speculative portfolio...


----------



## aus_trader

Sold Capitol Health Ltd (*CAJ*), it's had a nice gain overall.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Boggo said:


> I may be wrong but I reckon that expectation may have already been priced into the uptrend that has been.
> I did hold CDA for quite a while but saw a bit of selling over the last few months so I moved CDA funds to PTM, time will tell if that was a good idea or not



You could be right on this one Boggo. It's been a while and in that time PTM has done well while CDA is stuck in a sideways channel...


----------



## aus_trader

Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) gap down today so I took some profits off this position, since it has gone up a fair bit as well...

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold a few stocks to release funds for future purchases and two of these (SSM,CDA) have been sitting in the portfolio for a long time without any meaningful gains despite the dividends received. Stocks sold today are: Service Stream Limited (*SSM*), Codan Limited (*CDA*) and shares acquired through the Share Purchase Plan for NRW Holdings Limited (*NWH*).

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold another of my recent mining stocks and bought a fresh food production company to add to the portfolio.
Stock sold is OZ Minerals Limited (*OZL*) and stock bought is Costa Group Holdings Ltd (*CGC*).

Closed Positions:



Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Although not involved with anything in this area directly, I have an affinity towards farming / food production / agricultural related stocks. Already got fresh food producer Costa Group Holdings Ltd (*CGC*) in the portfolio and today added another stock to it.

Rural Funds Group (*RFF*), has a diversified portfolio of agricultural assets ranging from Vineyards, Poultry, Cattle, Cotton, Macadamias and Almonds. Has a reasonable return from assets and pays dividend/distribution a tad over 4% at current prices.


----------



## aus_trader

Sold 3P Learning Ltd (3PL) today, this time for a bit of profit.

Closed Positions:


----------



## HelloU

profit yea, for a month that has been 'level' (as in xao month start is same as xao today) I have been smashed. So good on you for getting some.
side note: whenever I look at your post I gag when I see ozl. I know it is all just business, dont get attached, dont carry grudges etc (not sure how old you are) but the oxiana and zinifex experience is one that i still use to temper my attitudes to the market - read as not real good for 99.9% of people - but really good for 0.1%.


----------



## aus_trader

HelloU said:


> profit yea, for a month that has been 'level' (as in xao month start is same as xao today) I have been smashed. So good on you for getting some.
> side note: whenever I look at your post I gag when I see ozl. I know it is all just business, dont get attached, dont carry grudges etc (not sure how old you are) but the oxiana and zinifex experience is one that i still use to temper my attitudes to the market - read as not real good for 99.9% of people - but really good for 0.1%.



Thanks, yes it's tough to make gains even in this market when it seems to be heading higher slowly. Just to highlight this point, I sold the most recent buy Rural Funds Group (*RFF*) today as it seems to be going against the general market trend. I do remember the Oxiana/Zinifex merger way back around the GFC times, at one stage the merged entity *OZL* looked like it wouldn't survive due to financial troubles.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold several of the stocks due to some uncertainty coming into the market over the last couple of days.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Although it's more of a longer term portfolio that should be held through volatile market conditions, I've liquidated it to go into cash for the time being. Will look for opportunities again when things settle down a bit...

Closed Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

I've been looking for stocks that may be able to hold up well in a volatile flash crash like we've seen in February. Many stocks that had stretched valuations or have been rallying due to speculative prospects have corrected sharply especially if any disappointing results got reported.

Bought BWP Trust (BWP) which is a commercial real estate business majority of which are Bunnings Warehouse property sites. Price has come down since Dec 2017 which provides an entry with a Dividend Yield of around 6%.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

There has been a bit of news coverage about Australia's recycling crisis. Many articles come up if the topic is googled.

I thought to buy into this sector which may benefit from the crisis. Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (*CWY*) is a major player in this waste management sector and it has grown even bigger with the recent take over of Tox Free Solutions Ltd (*TOX*) which has just completed successfully.

Open:


----------



## Country Lad

aus_trader said:


> There has been a bit of news coverage about Australia's recycling crisis. Many articles come up if the topic is googled.




Article today in Livewre.


----------



## aus_trader

Bought a stock from the big end of town today, main reason being the falling Aussie dollar may be good for commodity producers.

To be commodity specific is a bit risky though, I've already had a few oil/gas punts go against me in my speculative portfolio. So went with the diversified miner BHP Billiton Ltd (*BHP*) which tends to hold up well even when individual commodities can go up and down.

Open Portfolio:



BWP went ex-dividend on 28th of June, so will update table once I receive that...


----------



## aus_trader

Bought the retail property fund Aventus Retail Property Fund(*AVN*) today. It has a portfolio of retail properties and shopping centers. It pays distributions 4 times a year, whereas dividend paying companies usually pay only 2 times a year. It also has an impressive 7% yield at current prices which compares favourably with a poultry 2% at the bank for savings accounts.

Current Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Bought first gold related investment for the longer term. Gold is in a declining phase at the moment so I will keep money to buy more should the price become cheaper. The ETF purchased is BetaShares Gold Bullion ETF (*QAU*), a summary of the ETF is shown below:


Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Just updating a few dividend payments on the portfolio. Have received BHP and BWP dividends. Also eligible for CWY and AVN dividends as I have held those shares over the ex-dates.

Some sort of re-structuring must have taken place with AVN since the code was changed to AVNDA for a few days and now changed back to AVN.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## Smurf1976

aus_trader said:


> I've liquidated it to go into cash for the time being



Is it part of your strategy to do that on a periodic basis? Or just a one off?

In my case I do have a “stop buying” rule based on macro factors but that doesn’t mean sell everything unless that happens for some other reason.


----------



## sptrawler

Smurf1976 said:


> Is it part of your strategy to do that on a periodic basis? Or just a one off?
> 
> In my case I do have a “stop buying” rule based on macro factors but that doesn’t mean sell everything unless that happens for some other reason.



Biggest mistake I've done was to sell out completely, it was a difficult time retirement etc, but I should have taken a deep breath and thought it through better.
I thought have cash at hand, just in case, sold some shares I should have just kept.
One that comes to mind 3,000 CSl @$27 sold at $34, because I just thought it would be better to have the cash available. lol


----------



## Skate

sptrawler said:


> Biggest mistake I've done was to sell out completely, it was a difficult time retirement etc, but I should have taken a deep breath and thought it through better.
> I thought have cash at hand, just in case, sold some shares I should have just kept.
> One that comes to mind 3,000 CSl @$27 sold at $34, because I just thought it would be better to have the cash available. lol




*Ouch !*

$517,830 Capital gains plus Dividends (August/September 2011 till today)

No wonder the memory lingers..

From the 4th September your 3,000 shares would have declined $99,240 and that would have been a hard pill to swallow 
*
Double Ouch !!*

Skate.


----------



## aus_trader

Smurf1976 said:


> Is it part of your strategy to do that on a periodic basis? Or just a one off?
> 
> In my case I do have a “stop buying” rule based on macro factors but that doesn’t mean sell everything unless that happens for some other reason.



Good question. Most of what I have is for the medium term i.e. if there seem to be a downturn I will sell for the time being and look to buy back later if market takes off again.
One of the problems of hoping to buy back if the market takes off is it could just take off without you such as the case with *sptrawler*'s CSL example ​
There may be an odd stock or ETF that I may look to hold long term and perhaps even accumulate possibly at lower prices. Current portfolio has 1 such holding that I plan to hold long term and possibly add to and that is BetaShares Gold Bullion ETF (*QAU*). Reasons are in Storing Physical Gold - Coins etc. thread.


----------



## aus_trader

Unfortunately two of the stocks have been removed during the heavy market falls today, both 
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (*CWY*) and Aventus Retail Property Fund (*AVN*) sold.

All Ordinaries(XAO) has fallen back below 6000 level as well.

closed positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) today as the market continued to fall for another day. The dividend made it a smaller loss than otherwise.

Closed Positions:


----------



## Triple B

he he  I went short BHP Friday. I Think If it Breaks below $30 Gaaaaawn


----------



## aus_trader

Triple B said:


> he he  I went short BHP Friday. I Think If it Breaks below $30 Gaaaaawn



If a bear market is in play then this would become very profitable. Just have an exit strategy in place in case the market turns around and heads back up and the slide is just a deep pull back.


----------



## SirRumpole

Bad news for coal miners in the long term.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11...m-future-for-australian-thermal-coal/10452456


----------



## aus_trader

SirRumpole said:


> Bad news for coal miners in the long term.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11...m-future-for-australian-thermal-coal/10452456



Something to consider when formulating a longer term investment strategy, thanks for posting this info SirRumpole.

I think we are a little biased as Aussies towards coal, even the industry keeps on forecasting rosy picture as described in the article. But we could get isolated in the push for continued coal as a fuel as other nations are looking for a more cleaner greener future with the technological advancements in renewables etc. So it looks like the climate change effects are starting to get acknowledged and innovative nations are embracing new ways to disrupt the traditional CO2 producing oil/coal dominance. Hope we don't become a nation of dinosaurs in the energy space by holding onto beliefs too strongly and denying the reality.


----------



## aus_trader

Bought 2nd gold related investment for the longer term. Gold price seems to have picked up during 
the last few months but heading lower again. Hence providing an opportunity to diversify into other gold investments or to add to my holdings. I decided to look for other gold assets and bought a global gold miners ETF. I have some Aussie gold miner exposure in the Speculative Stock Portfolio, so this one is for exposure outside Australia.

Betashares Global Gold Miners ETF (*MNRS*) consists of the top gold miner holdings from around the world including Canada, South Africa and USA. Below is further information on the fund:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Following on from the first crack at Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (*CWY*), the company seems to be doing a few things to innovate solutions to tackle waste and recycling matters. Their strategy to 2025 is mentioned in the recent announcements as well:




So having another crack at this and added it to this portfolio.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

With prices coming off the boil it's tempting to buy a few heavily fallen stocks. But I'm going to hold off in case the decline continues. So I'm happy buying things for the long term such as gold related.

What about oil ? It's fallen steadily from US$75 levels to US$49 levels. Don't know how low this thing can go, perhaps to US$30 levels reached in 2016 or lower ? Might not fully engage into gear yet by fully investing but I might start to clutch in and start to bite with a small position at these levels for the long term.

Some pros and cons going through my mind for not going too deep into oil compared to say gold:

Pros:
- World still needs oil (industrialisation of China/India and other developing nations hasn't stopped)
- Renewables only make up a tiny fraction of the energy pie
- Other than costly and unpopular practices such as fracking, there hasn't been any major (Saudi Arabia size) oil discoveries of late and probably won't be since most of the Earth's surface has been explored except maybe the deepest of the seas
- Any political issues and military issues especially in or close to oil producing nations cause oil to rise and we've been in the most peaceful of times of late with alliances between the Saudis and Trump

Cons:
- Although slow to progress, new innovations like electric cars and other battery powered machinery is slowly taking a small slice of the oil based fuel (such as petrol, diesel) market
- Trump and Saudis could become even more best buddies and completely depress the oil market to levels not seen for decades even diving below 2016 low's
-Although insignificant at the moment, the renewable energy generation technologies could take off and take a bigger slice of the global energy pie
- A recovery in the nuclear energy markets could also put downward pressure on oil

If I'm planning to hold long term it's better to go with an oil ETF rather than taking on individual company risk by buying a stock. So purchased some BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (*OOO*).

Open Portfolio:


----------



## jjbinks

Haven't read up on this in detail but on ABC news Alan Kohler was describing how oil from US (mainly from fracking) had resulted in increased supply.
This probably accounts for lower prices. Also makes it difficult for OPEC/Saudi to reduce supply


----------



## aus_trader

jjbinks said:


> Haven't read up on this in detail but on ABC news Alan Kohler was describing how oil from US (mainly from fracking) had resulted in increased supply.
> This probably accounts for lower prices. Also makes it difficult for OPEC/Saudi to reduce supply



What about the long term? Is supply of oil likely to exceed demand for extended period?


----------



## jjbinks

this is from wikipedia.
It was very similar to graph shown in ABC news although the one on news was more up-to date.
I don't know much about demand side of things but it seemed as though supply was allowing for lower prices in current times.


----------



## aus_trader

jjbinks said:


> this is from wikipedia.
> It was very similar to graph shown in ABC news although the one on news was more up-to date.
> I don't know much about demand side of things but it seemed as though supply was allowing for lower prices in current times.



This is certainly interesting how a lot of new production has come into the market of late specially US and Russia.
Hey look at it from a positive, we might be paying lower prices at the fuel station for quite some time


----------



## aus_trader

Bit disappointed with letting go of Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (*CWY*) but it hasn't held up well over this period given it's usually the time of the year when stocks get a boost from Santa Clause rally. Sold this morning for $1.63 per share.

Oil is in freefall so added to my ETF position by buying another parcel of BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (*OOO*).

Closed Positions:



Open Portfolio:



Season's greetings to everyone


----------



## aus_trader

Just updated the portfolio with the Dividend/Distribution for the BWP Trust (*BWP*).

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Although the market has been in a strong rally since the start of the year, I felt cautious buying into it. In fact some of the Gold related Entities in this portfolio is a reflection of this.

The healthcare sector has shown defensive qualities in the past and have remained steady or declined more slowly during any market declines. So I'd be happy holding a healthcare stock through thick and thin as long as it does not crash, especially if it pays a good dividend. With that in mind, today bought Estia Health Ltd (*EHE*) which has a nice 7% dividend yield. It is an aged care operator that has assets in the Eastern states of the country, see below:



Open Portfolio:


----------



## Utopia17

aus_trader said:


> Added the company "Service Stream (SSM)" to the portfolio today. This is stock that has appeared in quite a few of the forums, so I've dug into it to find out what the story is about. From my research this has been a beneficiary of the National Broadband Network (NBN) due to the network services it offers and this is probably reflected in the run up in the share price. As the NBN is still new, SSM may continue to benefit with the services it offers, as it has done in the last few years with growing profits. SSM has also upgraded it's earnings outlook for FY17' as announced on 16-05-17.
> 
> Also it offers a dividend, which is always welcome with any of the stocks in this portfolio.
> 
> View attachment 71764
> 
> 
> Closed Positions:



You should be pleased with SSM. Has shown over 100% gain for me over 18 months or so, especially, with most gains this year.
Vector Vest alerted me to this stock back then.


----------



## Zaxon

Utopia17 said:


> You should be pleased with SSM. Has shown over 100% gain for me over 18 months or so, especially, with most gains this year.



I'm also a happy holder of SSM.  We're a significant part of the NBN rollout.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> I'm also a happy holder of SSM.  We're a significant part of the NBN rollout.



SSM is going along nicely.


----------



## aus_trader

BWP Trust (BWP) has had a good run including dividends and now showing resistance near the previous high's around $3.80 including a Head & Shoulder pattern. It was exited today banking some profit for this portfolio.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold the two Oil ETF positions to lock in profits, just in case the POO (Price Of Oil) decides to have another leg down and evaporate my paper profit. Also sold Estia Health Ltd (EHE).

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

There may be some stocks that could be worthy of being bought for the longer term since their share prices have come down a long way due to the global pandemic situation that we find ourselves in. Caution has to be exercised to minimize the chance of buying companies that could be severely and permanently affected since some may not survive.

Looking at the airlines, which is a gamble at the moment with international flights severely reduced or cut off in a lot of countries, I was looking to see if there is at least one airline that I could put into this portfolio that has the best odds of survival in the long term. I think the best of the Airline companies with good balance sheets may survive and prosper once the pandemic ends but by then the weakest and the most heavily indebted may have gone under...

I looked at the balance sheets and did a bit of research on US airlines such as Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL), Southwest Airlines Co (LUV), American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL). They are in a dire situation to survive in terms of cashflow to pay for debt obligations and although the US government and FED may bail out some, it may not be all of them and what if I buy one that goes under? The fact that Warren Buffet recently sold out of the US airline stocks that he was really 'fond of / proud of' also instils fear in me to touch any one of these.

So that took my research closer, looking at the local airline stocks. Of the two major Aussie Airlines, it looks like Qantas (QAN) may be able to survive possibly with capital raisings or some form of Govt assistance but Virgin (was VAH when it traded on the ASX) has gone under. So other than a few regional players, I am not able to find a major airline to cut my teeth into at the moment locally speaking.

So I decided to go across the Tasman ditch and investigate our neighbour. So in the case of NZ, based on my research I believe Air New Zealand (AIZ) will be the best of the candidates to survive out of all the abovementioned airline stocks I've looked at. AIZ is actually flying locally within the country and a few selected international routes at the moment, so I think it could be looking at self-sustaining until the world could open up again. Besides I really doubt if NZ Govt would deny any assistance if the national airline was struggling and was facing bankruptcy.

So I bought a few shares of Air New Zealand (AIZ) today for the long term. Not going to trade it in the *Speculative Stock Portfolio*, the share price is as flat as a pancake at the moment and could break out in either direction and I intend to hold through such volatility as this portfolio gives me the freedom to do so with a long term horizon.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## over9k

FWIW, I know the NYSE has aviation/airline ETF's if you want to bet on the industry rather than one specific company. 

With that being said, you could also look at boeing as a bet on the industry what with it being the huge player that it is and all this in a way being "free" time to get the 737 max fixed. They'll undoubtedly bounce significantly the day they announce that that's finally sorted.


----------



## aus_trader

over9k said:


> FWIW, I know the NYSE has aviation/airline ETF's if you want to bet on the industry rather than one specific company.
> 
> With that being said, you could also look at boeing as a bet on the industry what with it being the huge player that it is and all this in a way being "free" time to get the 737 max fixed. They'll undoubtedly bounce significantly the day they announce that that's finally sorted.




Yes Boeing looks better in terms of balance sheet strength compared to the US airline stocks.


----------



## over9k

Yeah they raised a LOT of capital way back. All BBB dogsh!t rated of course so it was expensive but having actual physical assets (you know, planes) that it can be secured against/seized in place of payment vs being a purely intellectual capital or IT company is a major advantage.


----------



## Knobby22

Did a bit of selling today as latest covid news is all bad. Seems many others had the same idea. 
All out of Kathmandu and t educed holdings in many other companies.


----------



## aus_trader

Knobby22 said:


> Did a bit of selling today as latest covid news is all bad. Seems many others had the same idea.
> All out of Kathmandu and t educed holdings in many other companies.



Yes, I am also less optimistic of the scenario of all being back to normal with the vaccine hope. It's taking a lot longer than initially expected to vaccinate the global population. 

There is also more complication thrown into the mix with the more dangerous mutated strains of the virus and modifying the vaccines for that...


----------



## over9k

It'll be another 1-2 years before we're all vaccinated.


----------



## Knobby22

over9k said:


> It'll be another 1-2 years before we're all vaccinated.



Worldwide that is true. Most countries health systems are in controlled chaos, managed by panicking incompetent fools.

Australia however will be completely vaccinated by November at latest according to Greg Hunt. I would not be surprised if it was earlier. 

When we start in March it will be organised and planned. Compared to the USA and many European countries including the UK, we will be efficiently ruthless.


----------



## over9k

Oh yeah AU won't take long at all. First world country, small population, very little actual infection in the community, actual cold-chain infrastructure etc etc...

Third & developing world, however, is a totally different story.


----------



## aus_trader

over9k said:


> Oh yeah AU won't take long at all. First world country, small population, very little actual infection in the community, actual cold-chain infrastructure etc etc...
> 
> Third & developing world, however, is a totally different story.



I still think there may need to be further vaccinations against the more aggressively contagious strain, am I right ?

Or will this Covid thing turn into a flu like disease where vaccinations need to be done every so often like yearly or so to combat mutations ?


----------



## over9k

Well we just don't know because we don't know much about the virus. 

I really, really, really hope it isn't the latter.


----------



## aus_trader

over9k said:


> Well we just don't know because we don't know much about the virus.
> 
> I really, really, really hope it isn't the latter.



Me too !

In fact I wish we had gotten over this threat/distraction already.


----------



## over9k

Dunno man, stonks have done pretty well this year


----------



## aus_trader

over9k said:


> Dunno man, stonks have done pretty well this year



Yeah, can't complain about that


----------



## aus_trader

Latest addition to this longer term portfolio is Freelancer Ltd (FLN). I've written a detailed investment thesis for the reasons of buying in https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/post-1128575 post within the Speculative Stock Portfolio.

Also updated distributions received for the ETFs in the open portfolio below:


----------



## aus_trader

It's been a crazy period with work towards the end of the year, didn't get any time to do some posting in ASF which I missed.

Hope to reduce work or to delegate or re-structure as current work hours are not sustainable...🧟‍♂️

Wish everyone a Happy 2022 !


----------



## aus_trader

It's been very challenging to hold onto long term stuff, as the market keeps falling. I feel sick every time I look at FLN, AIZ P/L in my account. Let's just say it's not easy to do long term investing unless you have a gut for it.

I have a lot to learn and I will keep working at it to follow in the footsteps of uncle Buffet, Munger and their forefathers like Ben Graham and great fund managers like Peter Lynch.

Bought a long term position in BHP Group Ltd (BHP) yesterday. It's down further today , so in hindsight could have waited, but in longer term investing I think it's not the primary aim to try and time a purchase to the last tick...


----------



## Telamelo

aus_trader said:


> It's been very challenging to hold onto long term stuff, as the market keeps falling. I feel sick every time I look at FLN, AIZ P/L in my account. Let's just say it's not easy to do long term investing unless you have a gut for it.
> 
> I have a lot to learn and I will keep working at it to follow in the footsteps of uncle Buffet, Munger and their forefathers like Ben Graham and great fund managers like Peter Lynch.
> 
> Bought a long term position in BHP Group Ltd (BHP) yesterday. It's down further today , so in hindsight could have waited, but in longer term investing I think it's not the primary aim to try and time a purchase to the last tick...
> 
> View attachment 146289



Well in hindsight mate it's always easier to see & time a better longer term entry (don't sweat on it as BHP are better positioned than most to rebound higher over time not to mention the great dividend yield twice yearly  Good luck & best wishes!


----------



## over9k

aus_trader said:


> It's been very challenging to hold onto long term stuff, as the market keeps falling. I feel sick every time I look at FLN, AIZ P/L in my account. Let's just say it's not easy to do long term investing unless you have a gut for it.
> 
> I have a lot to learn and I will keep working at it to follow in the footsteps of uncle Buffet, Munger and their forefathers like Ben Graham and great fund managers like Peter Lynch.
> 
> Bought a long term position in BHP Group Ltd (BHP) yesterday. It's down further today , so in hindsight could have waited, but in longer term investing I think it's not the primary aim to try and time a purchase to the last tick...
> 
> View attachment 146289



As soon as china lifts some lockdowns it'll soar.


----------



## over9k

Energy will pull hard on lockdown lifting too


----------



## aus_trader

I really like the _illusive_ idea of long-term investing. There is something attractive about the idea of finding undervalued/unloved companies and buying them low and selling them high once they appreciate in value and become overvalued. Also, there is the potential to find little gems and hold onto them till they become larger well-known companies. To do this however a lot of experience and conviction is required:


Experience to find the winners early.


Conviction to hold through volatility, because nothing goes up in a straight line and during drawdowns the stomach will be tested.

This idea is very attractive and yet very difficult to achieve. Even investing greats like Warren Buffet gets it wrong time to time and gets out of positions at a loss. For example, when I bought Air New Zealand Limited (AIZ), I got some inspiration from Buffet buying up the US airlines like Delta Airlines and United Airlines. It made sense as the world was slowly opening up with vaccine rollouts, after all the lockdowns and disruptions. However, Buffet had sold out of those airlines soon after ! We only get to find out once the quarterly reporting happens with substantial holder information on stocks . How do the investing greats know when they may have made a mistake and cut the losses quickly and yet keep adding and dollar cost averaging down into other positions taking on huge drawdowns along the way ?

I haven't had a great deal of success in terms of investing, certainly haven't found the holy grail. Hence the word "illusive" that I used at the start of this post. Constantly learning and trying to improve though, as the saying goes...


----------



## aus_trader

Since the last post, I have had a lot of guidance from fellow ASF members in terms of going about longer-term investing. Few of the highly regarded members: @tech/a , @peter2 and @Skate have been generous to share some of their knowledge and experience with me over the last few days.

Basic conclusion at this stage is to stick to top quality blue chips like the latest buy in BHP and similar. Everything else (for example AIZ and FLN in this portfolio) should be considered as stocks for trading, something that I do in my other portfolio _Speculative_ _Stock_ Portfolio here at ASF.

But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.

I haven't mastered the illusive art (or the science) of finding those smaller companies with sufficient consistency to make it worthwhile investing in. Yes, I have had the odd luck with a multi-bagger on an undervalued stock, but that's the problem, it was based mostly on luck than the time spent looking at the company fundamentals. There are a few ASF members that I know of who has some success in this area such as @galumay and @Value Collector but it's a tough gig.

I will continue to privately learn at my own pace and if I build up sufficient consistency, I may bring little gems into this portfolio again one day...

So, for the time being it will be just blue chips and dividend paying big caps that will be bought in this portfolio going forward.


----------



## Value Collector

aus_trader said:


> Since the last post, I have had a lot of guidance from fellow ASF members in terms of going about longer-term investing. Few of the highly regarded members: @tech/a , @peter2 and @Skate have been generous to share some of their knowledge and experience with me over the last few days.
> 
> Basic conclusion at this stage is to stick to top quality blue chips like the latest buy in BHP and similar. Everything else (for example AIZ and FLN in this portfolio) should be considered as stocks for trading, something that I do in my other portfolio _Speculative_ _Stock_ Portfolio here at ASF.
> 
> But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.
> 
> I haven't mastered the illusive art (or the science) of finding those smaller companies with sufficient consistency to make it worthwhile investing in. Yes, I have had the odd luck with a multi-bagger on an undervalued stock, but that's the problem, it was based mostly on luck than the time spent looking at the company fundamentals. There are a few ASF members that I know of who has some success in this area such as @galumay and @Value Collector but it's a tough gig.
> 
> I will continue to privately learn at my own pace and if I build up sufficient consistency, I may bring little gems into this portfolio again one day...
> 
> So, for the time being it will be just blue chips and dividend paying big caps that will be bought in this portfolio going forward.



One way to think of it, is that rather than being a punter that is making the bets on outcomes of individual races, you are a horse owner trying to put together a stable of horses that will perform well on average over time.

When it comes to both horses and companies, you want to be able to identify the good quality ones, and then work out a sensible price to pay for them based on how you expect them to perform.

You can lose money buying good horses (and companies) if you over pay for them, and you can make windfall profits if you get good ones and bargain prices.

The advantage that companies have over horses if their useful life, it’s possible for companies to continue performing for decades, where as horses have a shorter life.

————————
In my opinion there are two valid strategies when it comes to buying companies to populate your stable/portfolio.

1, You just buy into an index of companies with a set amount of money, each month or quarter. This will produce a credible average result.

2, or you can try and pick the best horses/companies, and purchase them at times when their prices look cheap compared to your estimates of their future performance.

Option 1 is very easy, and for most people is going to be the best option, and guarantees the person a decent average return over time.

Option 2 is much harder, though it can produce extraordinary returns, if selections or timing is off, it can pressure returns and losses that are far worse than average too.

I personally use both strategies, my main investment portfolio is using option 2, but I also use option 1 to dollar cost avergae into my super.


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## So_Cynical

aus_trader said:


> But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.




In my long term experience, if you dont need the tax benefits of selling these losers then dont, i have had quiet a few stocks come back from the dead or near death, im genuinely surprised at how often it has happened, CHN Chalice i sold out in like 2014 or so for the tax loss at 20c or so, was 9 bucks something just last year, just recently (2years ago) i sold NHC New hope for the tax loss at about 1.20 now its 5.50.

Quite often the best thing to do is nothing.


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## The Triangle

aus_trader said:


> Since the last post, I have had a lot of guidance from fellow ASF members in terms of going about longer-term investing. Few of the highly regarded members: @tech/a , @peter2 and @Skate have been generous to share some of their knowledge and experience with me over the last few days.
> 
> Basic conclusion at this stage is to stick to top quality blue chips like the latest buy in BHP and similar. Everything else (for example AIZ and FLN in this portfolio) should be considered as stocks for trading, something that I do in my other portfolio _Speculative_ _Stock_ Portfolio here at ASF.
> 
> But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.
> 
> I haven't mastered the illusive art (or the science) of finding those smaller companies with sufficient consistency to make it worthwhile investing in. Yes, I have had the odd luck with a multi-bagger on an undervalued stock, but that's the problem, it was based mostly on luck than the time spent looking at the company fundamentals. There are a few ASF members that I know of who has some success in this area such as @galumay and @Value Collector but it's a tough gig.
> 
> I will continue to privately learn at my own pace and if I build up sufficient consistency, I may bring little gems into this portfolio again one day...
> 
> So, for the time being it will be just blue chips and dividend paying big caps that will be bought in this portfolio going forward.



I don’t generally look to invest in blue-chip shares as there are a lot of very smart very well-resourced people out there analysing these companies and I’m not about to outsmart, outthink, or outwork these people on a day-to-day basis. My blue-chip investments tend to be made only every few years and held for 7-15 years. I spend much more time on small caps which I roughly buy on a monthly basis and hold for 2-4 years.   I don't really care about diversity.  If I have strong feelings about a share - then I'll put a high % into that share.  

I’m not a trader, I will play in and out of small caps which I think have big price fluctuations and are undervalued – they have to be companies where I’m also happy to hold long-term in case I get _stuck_ with shares if the price drops due to what I think is an irrational market.  I've stopped doing this in the last two years because I can't be f-ed to spend days on the taxes for all my trades and I'm too stuck-up to pay a professional.  

I don't think there are "sufficient consistency" small guys out there - which makes it prime for good investments.  Sticking with the Buffet theme, I have a pseudo cigar butt investment philosophy. I tend to keep it textbook and analyse the cashflow statements and balance sheets of small caps looking for what I think is a financially healthy company trading at a low multiple relative to peers and relative to historical trends which has run into difficulties lately (lawsuits, dropping out of an index, missing/withdrawing guidance, cancelling dividends, write-downs, big capex program) or just a small cap with good growth that has not been picked up by others.  More specifically I look for operating cashflows which are high enough to cover investments and debt servicing and leave enough in the kitty to fund current or future dividends. If it’s not – then I look at the tangible assets on the books and see if I think the assets can be sold off for more $$$ then they are generating in cashflow, or in extreme examples for more $$$ than the company is worth. I then work out what I think the value/share price of the company _should be_.  These don't come across my eye very often, 1-5 a year at best.  

I give some consideration to macro trends but again, I don’t try to outsmart a billion others. Have we had a few bad years of crops? If yes, I’m more likely to buy those wheat agricultural shares as there should be a good year around the corner. Given current inflation levels I am less likely to buy those premium European washing machine shares as no one has the money to go buy fancy appliances right now. A railway company has had low capital investments the past few years, I might stay away from those shares as I know railways have the potential for heavy capital investments every so often.

My side investments are junior miners/explorers... But that’s Ouija board stuff.

As far are your Freelancer… Looked at them maybe 5 years ago. Just looked again. I can’t really see since 2017 what they’ve managed to achieve. Revenue increases look on par with inflation and operational cashflows which have really just been enough to tread water, cash has gone down and I can’t see any dividends paid. Certainly not interesting me – but never know – facebook might knock on their door and buy the domain for a billion dollars.


So_Cynical said:


> In my long term experience, if you dont need the tax benefits of selling these losers then dont, i have had quiet a few stocks come back from the dead or near death, im genuinely surprised at how often it has happened, CHN Chalice i sold out in like 2014 or so for the tax loss at 20c or so, was 9 bucks something just last year, just recently (2years ago) i sold NHC New hope for the tax loss at about 1.20 now its 5.50.
> 
> Quite often the best thing to do is nothing.



Thinking the same thing I rode VEC and DML all the way to death in the past few years...  .... 

I try not to get sentimental about what I paid for a share.  Much easier now than 20 years ago.  If a month or year or 10 years down the road I believe the investment is overvalued, I'll still sell even at a loss and move on.


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## Knobby22

So_Cynical said:


> In my long term experience, if you dont need the tax benefits of selling these losers then dont, i have had quiet a few stocks come back from the dead or near death, im genuinely surprised at how often it has happened, CHN Chalice i sold out in like 2014 or so for the tax loss at 20c or so, was 9 bucks something just last year, just recently (2years ago) i sold NHC New hope for the tax loss at about 1.20 now its 5.50.
> 
> Quite often the best thing to do is nothing.



I knew a guy who specialised in buying companies near death. He would probably lose his dough about 1/3 of the time but his wins were massive.


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## aus_trader

Great discussion guys, I think the markets are going to present us with opportunities with buying quality companies at lower prices for the long term. I will be looking for opportunities as well as to add to BHP if it drops quite a bit.

I value all the input from fellow ASF members, but I will keep small caps in the other portfolio for now. As I said, if I can improve my process of finding small caps that I am happy to hold long term, I will post in the future. All are welcome to discuss their favourite small cap growth stocks and value stocks on this thread, that's how we can all learn.


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## aus_trader

There are a few opportunities that might become attractive enough to add long term if the current sell down continues... But sometimes we feel like frogs in a pond. We only see our universe of stocks within the asx pond and unaware of the ocean that exists beyond the banks of the pond.

On the other side of the world, there are US companies that I am keen adding at current prices; as they have taken a significant hit in their share prices. I have a little exposure via ETFs but the bundling makes it difficult to pounce on the good companies with severely wounded stock prices i.e. individual constituents !

Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?

I am thinking of venturing out... the current selloff could be a rare opportunity out there.


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## KevinBB

aus_trader said:


> Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?



Staying with two feet on terra firma for the moment. In the share holding account, cash has been increased to about 60%, while at the same time moving funds to banks and larger cap stocks.

Its too early to go diving with confidence as yet!

KH


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## Skate

aus_trader said:


> There are a few opportunities that might become attractive enough to add long term if the current sell down continues... But sometimes we feel like frogs in a pond. We only see our universe of stocks within the asx pond and unaware of the ocean that exists beyond the banks of the pond.
> 
> On the other side of the world, there are US companies that I am keen adding at current prices; as they have taken a significant hit in their share prices. I have a little exposure via ETFs but the bundling makes it difficult to pounce on the good companies with severely wounded stock prices i.e. individual constituents !
> 
> Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?
> 
> I am thinking of venturing out... the current selloff could be a rare opportunity out there.




*When considering*
Have a read of what Mark Minervini has to say on the subject of trying to buy preceived value.

_"This bear market is going to go down as the "bottom fisher buster." Those who fail to respect risk are learning that investing isn't as easy as just buying "good" companies that are down in price"._



_"Averaging down on her 11 mil. share debacle, the media felt safe betting on $SKLZ because the stock was down 75% and Cathie was still bullish based on fundamentals. How much lower can it go? Answer: 67% MORE before she sold it. All in less than 6 mos. 5-10 year time horizon?"_






*If the hyperlinks don't work*
They are in a text file attached.

Skate.


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## divs4ever

aus_trader said:


> There are a few opportunities that might become attractive enough to add long term if the current sell down continues... But sometimes we feel like frogs in a pond. We only see our universe of stocks within the asx pond and unaware of the ocean that exists beyond the banks of the pond.
> 
> On the other side of the world, there are US companies that I am keen adding at current prices; as they have taken a significant hit in their share prices. I have a little exposure via ETFs but the bundling makes it difficult to pounce on the good companies with severely wounded stock prices i.e. individual constituents !
> 
> Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?
> 
> I am thinking of venturing out... the current selloff could be a rare opportunity out there.



 i have no interest in investing in the US ( or adding to  my UK exposure )   , but am throwing the line out to hook a few sardines  ( added small parcels of EVN and HLS  and bought a toehold into TWR  this week )

 have missed my primary targets , but long term that might be a good thing 

 if frogs and ponds are your thing  , don't neglect PNG and NZ , the tiny ponds make ( the lack of ) liquidity  an issue , but also makes them scary for big instos ( to lend out to short-sellers )

 ( i hold several companies that operate mostly in NZ )


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## aus_trader

I very much appreciate fellow ASF members opinions and suggestions. The thing about ETFs which are based on indices usually is they tend to be top heavy, and that's the case whether we look at them on the asx or on the NYSE or NASDAQ. So in the case of buying the SP500 or NASDAQ ETF, the top 5 to 10 companies make up the bulk of that index by weight.

Let's take the NASDAQ top 5 companies for example, which makes up around 35% of the index:




These would make up a large chunk of the index, so when they move the index would move almost in tandem.

However, if you believe one of the smaller companies in that index is going to outperform, it may be better to have direct exposure in my opinion.

Let's take a past example: During the lockdowns we could kind of figure out that Zoom Video Communications (*ZM*) would benefit due to the increase of online meetings people were having whether it was for business or personal reasons. In fact, if ZM was bought directly, there was a massive share price increase during 2020 lockdowns:




However, if you tried to get exposure to ZM via the index ETFs, the needle would hardly move. That's because ZM only makes up less than 0.2% of the NASDAQ:



So, I am hoping to do some stock picking as opposed to just buying the index ETFs. I know it will not be easy, as some of the smaller components of the index will be beaten down for a reason.

And also let's be honest, we can't time the exact bottom to buy in at. It may be possible to dip our toes into the water during the bear market like we are having at the moment, but as @Skate pointed out, we should be conservative in deploying our cash as the prices could go down much further.


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> I very much appreciate fellow ASF members opinions and suggestions. The thing about ETFs which are based on indices usually is they tend to be top heavy, and that's the case whether we look at them on the asx or on the NYSE or NASDAQ. So in the case of buying the SP500 or NASDAQ ETF, the top 5 to 10 companies make up the bulk of that index by weight.
> 
> Let's take the NASDAQ top 5 companies for example, which makes up around 35% of the index:
> 
> View attachment 148012
> 
> 
> These would make up a large chunk of the index, so when they move the index would move almost in tandem.
> 
> However, if you believe one of the smaller companies in that index is going to outperform, it may be better to have direct exposure in my opinion.
> 
> Let's take a past example: During the lockdowns we could kind of figure out that Zoom Video Communications (*ZM*) would benefit due to the increase of online meetings people were having whether it was for business or personal reasons. In fact, if ZM was bought directly, there was a massive share price increase during 2020 lockdowns:
> 
> View attachment 148013
> 
> 
> However, if you tried to get exposure to ZM via the index ETFs, the needle would hardly move. That's because ZM only makes up less than 0.2% of the NASDAQ:
> 
> View attachment 148014
> 
> So, I am hoping to do some stock picking as opposed to just buying the index ETFs. I know it will not be easy, as some of the smaller components of the index will be beaten down for a reason.
> 
> And also let's be honest, we can't time the exact bottom to buy in at. It may be possible to dip our toes into the water during the bear market like we are having at the moment, but as @Skate pointed out, we should be conservative in deploying our cash as the prices could go down much further.



I have a few US companies i try to get a foot in,all with a trailing SL initially set between 6% and 10%
I went in out a couple of time in the last months and these are discretionary choice so probably not great😊
Look at SJ,MOS, LMT,vnom,slvm..these are companies i can not find on the ASX with decent pe and imho some bright future.
But if the ship tanks,we all drown so the SL which are often triggered I am afraid. Until they won't..you can always buy back .even cheaper in a down trend.
The risk is death from multiple cuts so there is a risk..to be managed.
Just my inexperienced view


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## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> I have a few US companies i try to get a foot in,all with a trailing SL initially set between 6% and 10%
> I went in out a couple of time in the last months and these are discretionary choice so probably not great😊
> Look at SJ,MOS, LMT,vnom,slvm..these are companies i can not find on the ASX with decent pe and imho some bright future.
> But if the ship tanks,we all drown so the SL which are often triggered I am afraid. Until they won't..you can always buy back .even cheaper in a down trend.
> The risk is death from multiple cuts so there is a risk..to be managed.
> Just my inexperienced view



Well, that's something I still have to think through as well mate. We are all students of the market, so I can only join you with my inexperienced views as well.  in the past, I have been dealt with when I tried to outsmart the market or try to be cocky.

My initial thinking was to buy quality companies and hold for the long term in this portfolio. I know *quality *is a relative term and I can only put some basic fundamentals around companies as to how to identify those, and I am no Buffet when it comes to figuring out moats and all that subjective stuff.

On the asx there are few quality companies in my opinion that fits this type of long-term buy and hold criteria. Couple that comes to mind is BHP and CSL. I am happy to buy into falling prices and see the price drops as an opportunity to buy, which is completely different to trading. But the scope is limited here, we don't have the Microsofts, Apples, Johnso&Johnsons, Coca-Cola or Walt Disney to buy on dips or during market downturns like we are having now.

In terms of trading, it could be a future project to try and replicate something similar to what's done with the asx stocks in the Speculative Stock Portfolio on the US stocks.


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## rcw1

Good afternoon qldfrog and aus_trader,
rcw1 will provide you both with rcw1's *experienced* views... ha ha ha ha ha ha  just jokes...  Pretty funnieee till something serious happens 

Do gain intelligence from ADRs and Over-The-Counter performances on International Markets as they relate to stocks which are listed on the ASX that rcw1 believes can earn from day trading.   Their performances and company information/revelations in those markets provide assistance to rcw1 in early morning determinations about what stock (s) on ASX to target.  TA and Fundamentals compliment this process.    

Guessing it wouldn't really matter whether this is applied also to determining medium- and longer-term holdings as well.  

Have performed much research to gain knowledge and better ways to interpret ADR data so as to proceed with an evidence base to trade on ASX.  Over time, what works and what doesn't, with what stock and when, does become a tad clearer, but there is always risk as you all would be aware.  Sometimes the performance of an ADR on an international market does not in any way correspond with what happens to that same company's SP listed on the ASX, goes the other way.  

Anyways fyi if you are interested rcw1 found further acquired knowledge in this space, just added 'another string to one's bow'.  Just saying...

ADR universal register is here:
https://adr.com/dr/drdirectory/drUniverse

What this is all about is here (very old reference but tells the reader what the reader needs to know - no BS)
http://quantlabs.net/academy/download/free_quant_instituitional_books_/[JP Morgan] Depositary Receipts Reference Guide.pdf

More Due Diligence is here:
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch

Easy check on ADR (go into the magnify glass then type in code)








						Dow, S&P 500 book best day in two weeks after Biden vows no return to March 2020-style lockdowns as omicron rages
					

U.S. stock indexes finished sharply higher Tuesday, halting a three-session slide, with optimism aided by the Biden administration's plan to fight rising...




					www.marketwatch.com
				




*Some ADRs that interest rcw1:*

AWCMY ASX listed AWC (Alumina Ltd ADR) AWC
AGLXY ASX listed AGL (AGL Energy ADR)
ANSLY ASX listed ANN (Ansell ltd ADR)
ARLUF ASX listed ALL (Aristocrat Leisure Ltd US OTC)
AMCR ASX listed AMC (Amcor US NYSE)
BEPTF ASX listed BPT (Beach Ltd US OTC)
BHP (ADR)
BBL (BHP Group PLC ADR)
BXBLY  ASX listed BXB (Bramble Ltd ADR)
CAHPF ASX listed EVN (Evolution Mining US OTC)
CSLLY ASX listed (CSL ltd ADR)
FSUGY ASX listed FMG (Fortescue Metals Groups Ltd. ADR) -
ILKAY ASX listed ILU (Iluka Resources ltd ADR)
ILKAF (Iluka Resources Ltd US OTC)
JHG ASX listed JHG (Janus Henderson Group PLC US NYSE
JHX ASX listed JHX (JAMES Hardie Industries PLC ADR)
LYSCF (US OTC) ASX listed LYC
LYSDY (ADR) ASX listed LYC
NABZY ASX listed NAB (National Australia Bank limited ADR)
NESRF ASX listed NST (Northern Star Resources US OTC)
NCMGY ASX listed NCM (Newcrest Mining Ltd ADR)
NCMGF ASX listed NCM (US OTC
NHPEF ASX listed NHC (New Hope Corp Ltd US OTC)
OZMLF ASX listed OZL (OZ Minerals Ltd US OTC)
PMNXF - ASX PRU (Perseus Mining Ltd US OTC)
PLL ASX listed PLL (Piedmont Lithium Ltd ADR) ( yep, PLL is just a 3 alpha ADR Code) US Nasdaq
RGRNF ASX listed RRL (Regis Resources ltd. US OTC
RMGGF ASX listed RSG (Resolute Mining US OTC)
SFRRF ASX listed SFR (Sandfire Resources NL US OTC)
SHTLF ASX listed S32 (South32 ltd US OTC)
SOUHY (South32 Ltd ADR) S32
SSLZY ASX listed STO (Santos Ltd ADR)
STBMY ASX listed SBM (St Barbara ADR)
SVLKF ASX listed SLR (US OTC Silver Lake Resources)
WEBNF ASX listed WBC (US OTC Westpac Banking Corp)
WFAFY ASX listed WES (Westfarmers ltd ADR)
WLWHY ASX listed WOW (Woolworths Holdings Ltd ADR) WOW
WYGPY (Worley Ltd ADR) WOR
WDS ASX listed WDS (Woodside Energy Group Ltd ADR)
WOPEF ASX listed WDS (Woodside Energy Group Ltd US OTC)

Good fortune in the sandpit this week.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## aus_trader

OK Guys, the project to buy quality US based companies for the long term has finally come to fruition.

What's taken me a long time was to evaluate the various platforms available with different features and conditions. After many hours of comparing, I decided to open a separate brokerage account dedicated to US stock investing, see my recent post which explains the new platform opened:





						Speculative Stock Portfolio
					

Sold half of the shares in TYR:    Also congratulations to @UMike for being the runner up with the August Stock Tipping Competition tipping TYR: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/august-2022-stock-competition-entries.37168/post-1190801  Hope the remaining shares for TYR sticks on, in...




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				




I was offered international share trading in my long held Aussie brokerage platform, but the brokerage fees were quite high. That's why I decided to open a commission free brokerage account as I only plan to invest in small sums of money into individual quality US companies for the long term. Why small sums of money ? The companies I am targeting will be down generally which is the case at the moment due to the recent US stock market decline. However, they could fall further, so I have funds kept for other opportunities both local and US.

A couple of points to clarify before showing the first few companies that I bought into....

Quality is a relative term and what's quality for me could be complete garbage for someone else. But I try to look for profitable companies with potential for price appreciation over the long term. In terms of time horizon, I plan to hold for a decade or more, as I am not going to be monitoring day-to-day price movements that's usually done with stock trading in my Speculative Stock Portfolio. Currently extremely stretched for time to manage another trading portfolio for US stocks, so that type of project may not happen till I am able to stop or cut down working significantly i.e. retire.

First US stock purchased is Meta Platforms or good old Facebook. It's share price has absolutely tanked this year and now trading for low PE of just over 10.

The Pandemic market darling that helped everybody work and connect remotely has its share price in the gutter at the moment after peaking well over US$500 in late 2020. Decided to pick up this profitable company Zoom Video Communications because I think the trend is here to stay for the long term.

Lastly the eCommerce giant Amazon is trading close to 50% off on a yearly basis. So also added that to the Black Friday shopping basket.




Long Term US Stock Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

I was tossing up between Netflix and Disney to purchase as a media/streaming company. I think both could fit as a candidate but decided to buy a little Disney.




Other than being fascinated by the 'magical world of Disney' and all its characters ever since a kid, I have no involvement or emotional attachment to it, so that's an investment that can be left alone for the long term...



Also the company has many branches for income generation such as Disney/Hulu streaming, Disney parks and resorts etc. I understand the Parks and resorts being closed during the lockdowns and price tanking in 2020. But having overshot up with the recovery, it's back near the VFC lows:




Back years ago, I wanted to buy some Netflix shares as they were becoming the dominant streaming service around the world including Australia but didn't have a US investing account. In fact, they bankrupted a small DVD rental / streaming asx listed company called Quickflix of which I held some shares and lost the lot ! Therefore, I didn't purchase Netflix today as this portfolio is directed towards long-term investing and not revenge trading.


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## aus_trader

Wishing everyone a fantastic 2023 !


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