# Gold or gold stocks?



## MrBurns

I'm starting to think it's getting close to where it will become apparent that some currencies will collapse, perhaps USD or the pound.

So gold is probably a good choice about now, get in before the rush, but do you buy physical gold from say the Perth Mint and have them store it or do you buy gold stocks ??????????


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## sinner

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*

There is already a "Buying gold" thread Mr Burns, check it out, lots of people asking the same q. 

Buy before the rush was 2000...we have already approached <10:1 on the dow:gold, it's almost time to sell OUT of gold!


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## MrBurns

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



sinner said:


> There is already a buying gold thread Mr Burns, check it out.
> 
> Buy before the rush was 2000...we have already approached <10:1 on the dow:gold, it's almost time to sell OUT of gold!





I couldn't find that thread......thanks for the info but wont gold go through the roof if a currency looks shaky ?


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## investorpaul

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



MrBurns said:


> I couldn't find that thread......thanks for the info but wont gold go through the roof if a currency looks shaky ?




Dont forget though that the price of gold would already have factored in (to a degree anyway) the potential for currencies to drop/increase volatility


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## MrBurns

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



investorpaul said:


> Dont forget though that the price of gold would already have factored in (to a degree anyway) the potential for currencies to drop/increase volatility




Ok so golds out, might as well wait as long as possible and put it into real estate if the banks will still give it back to me by then.


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## disarray

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



			
				MrBurns said:
			
		

> I couldn't find that thread




in the commodities forum


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## explod

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



investorpaul said:


> Dont forget though that the price of gold would already have factored in (to a degree anyway) the potential for currencies to drop/increase volatility




How can you justify such a statement.   Debt levels mean currencies a long way to fall yet and gold, inflation adjusted to the peaks of 1979/80, should go to at least $US 3,500 an ounce.   It is just beginning and if you look at the market objectively, gold is the only safe investment in town.


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## MrBurns

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



explod said:


> How can you justify such a statement.   Debt levels mean currencies a long way to fall yet and gold, inflation adjusted to the peaks of 1979/80, should go to at least $US 3,500 an ounce.   It is just beginning and if you look at the market objectively, gold is the only safe investment in town.




So physical gold or gold stocks !


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## Glen48

Mr. B. I have a mate who sells Gold either as scrap or such thing as necklaces. bracelet's or coins.
At present about $ 20 a gram at least you have it in you hot hand and  like me and curl up with it in the Fetal position, Missionary use to be good from memory but I digress.
I am assuming holding solid Gold pieces is the safest way rather than wondering if the crunch comes will the Mints etc deliver.
Peter Schiff claims it could go to $35K and OZ.
I think once the B.O. dream turns into a nightmare Gold will be the next best bet.


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## sinner

You just refuse to DYOR huh MrBurns?

If you are banking on $3500 gold, then you want in on physical gold because most governments around the world will simply force default of ETFs and holding schemes by making it illegal to hold gold or create a gold wealth tax etc if things get so bad.

I think gold is already approaching overvalued and will just hold around this 700-900 area with some upside potential into the low 1000s.

I doubt we will see POG higher than this at least until 2010. Dow:gold ratio is a good indicator of this, I'm not sure why people feel it is safe to ignore. Much more likely for the dow to fall than gold to push higher yet. We will need real inflation for that.


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## disarray

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



MrBurns said:


> So physical gold or gold stocks !




or both


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## MrBurns

sinner said:


> You just refuse to DYOR huh MrBurns?




No point when there's experts already on tap in here.

If Govt's take that sort of action if things get real bad it makes the whole exercise a bit like something out of a movie. 

I dont think I could hoard gold under the house and chisel bits off to go shopping.

Which gets me back to real estate, cant be confiscated or disappear.


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## investorpaul

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



explod said:


> How can you justify such a statement.   Debt levels mean currencies a long way to fall yet and gold, inflation adjusted to the peaks of 1979/80, should go to at least $US 3,500 an ounce.   It is just beginning and if you look at the market objectively, gold is the only safe investment in town.




I didnt say Gold wouldnt go higher. I just said that the market has already factored in future risk to currencies, hence pushing the price of gold to its current level.

They (traders/investors) COULD have it wrong and not have factored in enough risk of currency collapse/volatility. If the market decides that they havnt factored enough the correct risk level in the price of gold could go up, as it is a safe/secure option. If however the level of risk factored in is correct of too much the price will stay the same/drop.

Just as you have asked me to justify my statement, how can you justify Gold going to $3,500 an ounce?


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## Nyden

MrBurns said:


> No point when there's experts already on tap in here.
> 
> If Govt's take that sort of action if things get real bad it makes the whole exercise a bit like something out of a movie.
> 
> I dont think I could hoard gold under the house and chisel bits off to go shopping.
> 
> Which gets me back to real estate, cant be confiscated or disappear.




Not out of a movie Burns, but the history books. I believe (could be wrong?) it was illegal to hold gold during the depression.

My own opinion? I've stated many times that I don't believe gold to be a good investment - one of the reasons being that the gold bugs are just so darn whacky


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## MrBurns

Nyden said:


> Not out of a movie Burns, but the history books. I believe (could be wrong?) it was illegal to hold gold during the depression.
> 
> My own opinion? I've stated many times that I don't believe gold to be a good investment - one of the reasons being that the gold bugs are just so darn whacky




I think I'm starting to feel the same way.


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## hotbmw

buy gold coins from the perth mint mr burns.
wait for a short term dip to 750-800 and stock up as its going to go sky high within 12-18mths!


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## explod

*Re: Gold or gold stocks....*



investorpaul said:


> Just as you have asked me to justify my statement, how can you justify Gold going to $3,500 an ounce?




I did say on an inflation adjusted basis.  You only have to do the sums.

One is that in 1980 the Dow was at 900 points, today it is at 8,200

So on that equation gold should be at or head to $9,000 per ounce but prefer to keep projections on the conservative side.


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## Matthew888

Mr Burns,

Just in case you decide to buy physical gold, FYI I inquired about purchasing physical gold from Perth Mint a few weeks ago. They said they had a back log, and if you were purchasing even in moderate amounts there was a 6 week wait. You could however pay a deposit/ transfer funds in to their account and receive the physical in 6 weeks at todays price. 

Don't forget transport costs if you don't live in Perth. To get the neighbours interested, if you're puchasing a large amount and you don't wish to carry it, they can organise for it to be delivered to your door by a security van.


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## hotbmw

thats right. 6 weeks isnt too long though.

plus you have a 1% insurance fee (optional)
plus $17.50 delivery fee per kg


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## sinner

Or if you had done your own research you would realise you could buy from ABC with no delay. This thread stinks of unfounded claims and poor advice already.


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## Trevor_S

MrBurns said:


> Which gets me back to real estate, cant be confiscated or disappear.




That would be my choice.  At least you have a roof and land that has some intrinsic value. 

Au is only worth as much as those who subscribe to the notion that it has any worth, value it. ie it takes a group of like minded "nutters" to keep the price where it is. Of course, if you have enough of them, anything is possible   but I think as the decades roll on, the youth of today will wonder what the fuss is about and it will die away.

Aside from being an historical oddity and a few minor industrial uses, it really offers nothing in terms of usefulness.

All that aside, I used to work in a Gold/Copper mine back in the late '80's and early '90s but I am certainly no expert.

Another option is to buy nuggets themselves   A Charters Towers mine is selling them

http://maximusresources.com/sales.html


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## hotbmw

well the only problem there is that it is highly possible that our property bubble bursts and we lose 15-20% over the next 2 years.

USA went first, then UK, is AU next??? We have softened a bit but if u look at charts u will see we have a bigger bubble than USA & UK. Yes we have a low supply, thats why i feel we could only fall another 15-20% (less than USA and UK) even thought we have a bigger bubble then them.

so if u want property, hold off another 12 months or so....

we should have an inflation problem in a couple of years so property should do fine but gold will be KING


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## Nyden

hotbmw said:


> we should have an inflation problem in a couple of years so property should do fine but gold will be KING




Yes, so buy now! Sell your house, your car, even your bodily organs - and put it all into gold. Gold is going to the moon, and will never be this cheap again! $8000 by 2010!

In case folks can't tell, I am of course being sarcastic. Please don't use phrases like _"gold will be KING"_. You can't predict the future, nor can you predict where gold will be in a couple of years. It might very well be at $3000, but guess what? It might very well be at $200 

 ... The old rule of not falling in love with your investment conveniently doesn't seem to ever apply to gold, does it?  I just get this vision of Smeagol from the Lord of the Rings - Precious.


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## MrBurns

sinner said:


> Or if you had done your own research you would realise you could buy from ABC with no delay. This thread stinks of unfounded claims and poor advice already.




I would do my own research if I got serious, but posting in here is a good start.

I would be looking at a 6 figure purchase, thats not something I would keep at the house, Perth Mint can hold it for you. I guess that's the way to go.

But wouldnt you get a nice lift from a decent gold share, no storage problems, and dividends as well ?

I gather physical gold is really only the way to go if you believe Peter Schiff's worst scenerio is upon us.


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## hotbmw

buy some physical and some stocks Mr Burns. this way u covered either way

buy property in a year 

no reason why u cant do both Mr Burns


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## explod

Nyden said:


> You can't predict the future, nor can you predict where gold will be in a couple of years. It might very well be at $3000, but guess what? It might very well be at $200
> 
> ... The old rule of not falling in love with your investment conveniently doesn't seem to ever apply to gold, does it?  I just get this vision of Smeagol from the Lord of the Rings - Precious.




Since my Father used to buy and sell livestock when I was a child I learnt to follow the basic trends in markets and be on the look out for the healthy safe areas.   In essence I learnt about trends.  Since 2000 gold has been in a steady uptrend.   The dips have also been consistent along the way and seasonally recognisable.

So before you go off to all and sundry you ought to consider that there are very many ways at coming at this business.    Many investors have lost half of their portfolio values in the last year or so.   I have not gone up but because a large propertion has been in physical metals for a number of years I consider myself well in front overall.

And as much as I may appear to be in love with gold, I will be out in a flash and inter energy or whatever may be better,WHEN IT IS BETTER.

The market has collapsed and if the trend is saying anything it may go further.  But ridiculously throwing hands in the air (the sarcasim) helps no one think clearly.

cheers to all

explod


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## MrBurns

hotbmw said:


> buy some physical and some stocks Mr Burns. this way u covered either way
> buy property in a year
> no reason why u cant do both Mr Burns




I'll buy property in one or 2 years when the prices have bottomed out but I have to pick the sweet spot as I reckon there's a good chance the banks may have a run at some stage and getting your maney out may have complications, so I need to wait as long as possible but not too long or it may be too late.


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## hotbmw

Nyden said:


> Yes, so buy now! Sell your house, your car, even your bodily organs - and put it all into gold. Gold is going to the moon, and will never be this cheap again! $8000 by 2010!
> 
> In case folks can't tell, I am of course being sarcastic. Please don't use phrases like _"gold will be KING"_. You can't predict the future, nor can you predict where gold will be in a couple of years. It might very well be at $3000, but guess what? It might very well be at $200
> 
> ... The old rule of not falling in love with your investment conveniently doesn't seem to ever apply to gold, does it?  I just get this vision of Smeagol from the Lord of the Rings - Precious.




why would i buy property now when the unemployment rate will increase over the next 12mths, all we hear from home and all over the world is that property prices are falling and credit is hard to get for most people right now. All this SPELLS falling property prices! we are currently seeing deflation in asset prices across the board (except precious metals).

buy property in a year when prices have fallen further.
lock in a 5 year low interest rate.
buy some physical gold and silver at around 750 an ounce , 10 an ouce for silver.
this is sensible diversification.
this is what i am doing.

Cheers
R


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## hotbmw

MrBurns said:


> I'll buy property in one or 2 years when the prices have bottomed out but I have to pick the sweet spot as I reckon there's a good chance the banks may have a run at some stage and getting your maney out may have complications, so I need to wait as long as possible but not too long or it may be too late.




dont wait too long as u also want to lock in low interest rates on your loan.
we will have inflation in the years to come so im looking at buying this time next year, when property is close to its lows and i can still get a low 5 year fixed rate loan.

loan rates could be over 10% in a few yrs....


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## MrBurns

hotbmw said:


> dont wait too long as u also want to lock in low interest rates on your loan.
> we will have inflation in the years to come so im looking at buying this time next year, when property is close to its lows and i can still get a low 5 year fixed rate loan.
> 
> loan rates could be over 10% in a few yrs....





I will be buying with cash if the banks will give it back at the bottom, thats what I'm worried about.


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## cuttlefish

MrBurns said:
			
		

> Which gets me back to real estate, cant be confiscated or disappear.




The government has the capacity to apply price controls and other restrictions to all kinds of assets.   They don't need to confiscate your real estate - all they need to do is invent a new type of land tax or rent tax, or implement rent control, or implement compulsory land acquisition, or etc. etc.

There are also precedents in times of political upheaval of governments taking possession of private land (e.g. communism in Russia).

In the 30's depression the US government did outlaw gold ownership - they bought back all the private gold that they could (a lot of people didn't comply) and then raised the gold price as I understand it.


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## hotbmw

if i recall correctly the bank guarantee was for 3 yrs so take it out a few months before the expiry date


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## GumbyLearner

MrBurns said:


> I think I'm starting to feel the same way.




Yeah its difficult to know who to believe at this point in time, the moron money mismanagers vs. doomsaying gold bugs?

You decide!

But I liked the song posted by Glen48 on an earlier thread.

This adaptation was made without the announcements of the probable nationalization of UK banks, Santander and other banks exposure to Made-off
or the further stimulus packages to come....  

To be enjoyed one more time at least..


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## MrBurns

hotbmw said:


> if i recall correctly the bank guarantee was for 3 yrs so take it out a few months before the expiry date




I dont trust that , if it did hit the fan Rudd would find a way out of that in seconds flat, the reality is the banks cant pay back all the money depositied with them because they just havent got it.


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## hotbmw

well take it out as soon as u feel enough ur at boiling point.....


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## kransky

imo if things get so bad that aussie banks cant let you withdraw your deposts then gold will be worth a LOT

on the other hand, gold is being held down to maintain confidence in the USD.. so it may go nowhere or even down in time... esp if gold investors get frustrated with its lack of progress...

so the solution is to hold some % of gold and the rest in the bank... say 10% gold.. that is what i am doing... maybe you want 20%.. it depends on how much of a doomsdayer you are..

:dunno:


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## MrBurns

kransky said:


> imo if things get so bad that aussie banks cant let you withdraw your deposts then gold will be worth a LOT
> 
> on the other hand, gold is being held down to maintain confidence in the USD.. so it may go nowhere or even down in time... esp if gold investors get frustrated with its lack of progress...
> 
> so the solution is to hold some % of gold and the rest in the bank... say 10% gold.. that is what i am doing... maybe you want 20%.. it depends on how much of a doomsdayer you are..
> 
> :dunno:




Physical gold held at Perth Mint or what ?

BTW do you have a GT3 or is that a wish ?


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## kransky

its a wish 
the commodity boom ended before i made enough... so its "on hold"

you should probably spread it out... some in perth mint, some in a safe deposit box, some in your home..


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## MrBurns

kransky said:


> its a wish
> the commodity boom ended before i made enough... so its "on hold".




They're cheaper now if you know where to look, I dont.
Saw an 06" Cayman S for $95,000 damn cheap, better in gold though


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## sharetipsinfo

To be very frank if you are young than investment in GOLD is the worst investment one can make. If youngsters have appetite for risk they should think of alternates like Stock market, Mutual funds or Insurance. 

But if one is quite old and don't want to take any sort of risk then yes GOLD is the best investment for them.

Now just decide where you want to invest your hard earned money!!


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## kransky

MrBurns said:


> They're cheaper now if you know where to look, I dont.
> Saw an 06" Cayman S for $95,000 damn cheap, better in gold though




wow that is cheap. i very much like the cayman S also.. pity they dont have a GT3 version of it.. would be better than a 911 GT3 imo..

Right now i just cant justify spending so much money on a car. Even if it is "cheap" 

Some smart people are suggesting that when the current deflation ends that hard asset prices (like commodities) will inflate very quickly... i want as much cash as possible on hand for when that happens!


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## Mr Capital

Cayman S is one mediocre Porsche. 

better than a boxter, but will never be as good as a 911.


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## MrBurns

kransky said:


> wow that is cheap. i very much like the cayman S also.. pity they dont have a GT3 version of it.. would be better than a 911 GT3 imo..
> 
> Right now i just cant justify spending so much money on a car. Even if it is "cheap"
> 
> Some smart people are suggesting that when the current deflation ends that hard asset prices (like commodities) will inflate very quickly... i want as much cash as possible on hand for when that happens!




Yes the Cayman and Boxter are mid engine and out handle the 911

I think there's better things to do with the money at present, wouldn't like to be trying to sell a car at the moment


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## MrBurns

Mr Capital said:


> Cayman S is one mediocre Porsche.
> 
> better than a boxter, but will never be as good as a 911.




Actually if it had more power it would be better than a 911, Porsche have to keep the power down so as not to out do it's flagship.


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## wonderrman

MrBurns said:


> Actually if it had more power it would be better than a 911, Porsche have to keep the power down so as not to out do it's flagship.




If you were getting a Porsche you would have to go the full way and get the 911, for sure. First thing I'll be buying If I ever make that type of money!


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## Mr Capital

Yes i know this, but even if it had the same power as a 911 TT it would still lack all wheel drive. Ugly design in my opinion & should be marketed at women.

If you were going to pay 100k+ you would want to know & FEEL like you're driving the best, would you feel that in the cayman s ? doubt it, as its made to follow in the shadow of the 911.


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## nunthewiser

I hold both 

heard a story once ............ it said .."back in the old days 1 oz of gold bought one a suit"

in 2009 it still buys you a suit


dunno if its relevant but it sounded good to me when told


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## GumbyLearner

Who started this  lame thread anyway?

Talks about sports cars? 

Wow Riveting Cuck!


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## MrBurns

Mr Capital said:


> Yes i know this, but even if it had the same power as a 911 TT it would still lack all wheel drive. Ugly design in my opinion & should be marketed at women.
> 
> If you were going to pay 100k+ you would want to know & FEEL like you're driving the best, would you feel that in the cayman s ? doubt it, as its made to follow in the shadow of the 911.




Most 911's are 2 wheel drive 911S etc only the 4 has all wheel drive.

It's a bit frustrating, the Cayman is a better handling car and I can get an 06' Cayman S with only 5000k on the clock for $95K at present , yes very cheap, but it's still not a 911, it's a matter of perception not practicality.


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## Ageo

Just to update the Perth Mint are struggling to hold enough gold stocks in their inventory as alot of large investors are calling in for their stock. Have a look at the prices alot of bullion houses are charging today and that will tell you how much stock they have on hand.

As for gold stocks well its not the gold price you only need to look at but other factors like economy, political etc....


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## drillinto

Gold shows muscle despite falling production
Barry Fitzgerald
February 23, 2009 >> www.theage.com.au

AUSTRALIA'S gold industry is starting to shine amid the gloom and doom of the global financial crisis. Record local-dollar gold prices ”” up 58 per cent in the past six months ”” are boosting industry revenue despite gold production levels falling to 20-year lows, according to a production survey by Melbourne-based consultancy Surbiton Associates.

Surbiton's latest quarterly gold review found that production for 2008 was 219 tonnes (7 million ounces), down by 29 tonnes or 12 per cent on 2007.

Production in the December quarter alone was 55 tonnes (1.8 million ounces), 3 per cent lower than in the preceding September quarter and down 13 per cent on the previous corresponding period.

Surbiton director Sandra Close said 2008 was the lowest production effort since 1989.

"Output has trended downward over the last decade, in part due to reduced throughput but also due to higher gold prices which have enabled lower-grade ores to be treated profitably," Dr Close said.

Despite the lower production in 2008, the value of production, based on average prices for the year, was $7.3 billion, up from $6.6 billion in 2007.

If the current local price of more than $1500 an ounce had prevailed as the average price in 2008, the value of output would have been worth more than $10.5 billion.

It is the prospect of an additional $3.2 billion-plus in additional annual revenue from higher gold prices that has seen gold equities storm back in to favour with investors.

They are looking for leverage to gold's return as something of a haven during the financial crisis, with confidence in the world's banking system and fiat currencies crumbling.

Dr Close said gold's resurgence made it timely to reflect on the high level of foreign ownership of the industry, now about 60 per cent after US, Canadian and South Africa producers "snapped up half of the Australian gold industry at very attractive prices" when gold prices were low.

"The sell-out occurred when the gold price was in the doldrums and share prices were low," Dr Close said.

"While Australian investors did not value the local industry, others clearly recognised its potential and acted accordingly.

"Sadly, it seems Australian investors often fail to appreciate the long-term value of Australia's mineral resources and are unaware of their strategic value and economic importance.

"Yet our mineral resources, including gold, provide the best hope of paying our way in the world and reducing our escalating trade deficit."


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## junior17

Wellington West suggests that poor performance in gold equities vs. physical gold is due partially to “the introduction of more gold ETF products that saw a portion of the investment dollars flow away from gold equities.” And the Stock Research Portal Blog suggests in turn that this diversion is due to the “falling tides lowers all boats theory.” Specifically: price drops in junior mining stocks are due to “cash calls on fund managers.” Via Stock Research Portal


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## sinner

Hi guys,

Is it time for the next leg up in gold? Who knows.

The search is now on for those gold miners still representing value.

I think we should go and compare the charts for 1 group:

Market has recognised value and returned strongly to or nearish bull highs:
NCM, LGL, IAU, MML, SGX, SBM, NEM

against another group:

Market has not assigned a significantly rebounded price from bull highs:
IGR, TRY, EXM, HEG, RMS, SBS, AZM

We can see clearly looking at these charts the two groups have two very distinct chart patterns.

Obviously these are not nescessarily apples to apples stocks -some are explorers some are producers some are both-, but the goal here is to try and find some value.

So the question is, do we now go to these relatively lower price expecting value? Or is there a good reason each of them has been left behind by the market from the rush? 

Just look at the MML chart compared to TRY for example. Or for another example, look at SBS, why are they almost back at Nov lows when even Citigroup can stage a 34% rebound? 

RMS went into a trading halt today on a capital raising announcement. The proceeding price drop might be a good chance to move back in on this one for me. We have missed this opportunity for IGR already.

TRY had $60m in the bank in late Feb (but also good bullion reserves). Will this be enough to take over a decent company? Who would it be and why don't I just buy them? 

Marc Faber and others are calling for huge gains in the juniors thanks to this undervaluing.

To be honest, we will probably get the best return from those "sentiment" plays, and these have surely already derived strong benefit from the run up in gold from 681. 

On a purely fundamental basis I will pick 3 I like (and currently don't hold) from each group to be narrowed down to a single investment from each group but you guys can make up your own mind.

Group 1:
LGL, NEM, MML

Group 2:
TRY, HEG, IGR

Of all of these 6 only LGL has had a really strong buying volume in the 19th March session. MML had some good buying volume a few days ago.

I held both TRY and IGR and exited at a loss, and now both are significantly higher than purchase price  However still much much lower when compared to my IAU shares.


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## So_Cynical

Ive followed Gold pretty close over the last 2 years...as far as value, quality producers go there's


TRY (2 mine operation again...same as when they were $3.90)
MDL (first pour today - 3 million ounces)
BCD (high grade deposit)
OGC (same operation that it was 2 years ago - 70% discount to SP)
HEG (early days - potential)

Sure there are others, but IMO these 5 are the standouts as far as value goes.

I hold TRY and MDL and wish i had the guts to buy OGC when they were 16 cents.


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## Pairs Trader

Ive seen empirical evidence that investing in gold itself has outperformed gold stocks in the long run, largely because you avoid company specific risks.


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## sinner

So_Cynical said:


> Ive followed Gold pretty close over the last 2 years...as far as value, quality producers go there's
> 
> 
> TRY (2 mine operation again...same as when they were $3.90)
> MDL (first pour today - 3 million ounces)
> BCD (high grade deposit)
> OGC (same operation that it was 2 years ago - 70% discount to SP)
> HEG (early days - potential)
> 
> Sure there are others, but IMO these 5 are the standouts as far as value goes.
> 
> I hold TRY and MDL and wish i had the guts to buy OGC when they were 16 cents.




Hi SC, thanks for your opinion it's great! Nice to note a new one I had not seen before (MDL).

I note MDL has a debt/equity ratio of 8.9%, which is ok considering they have not produced a single ounce yet. Hopefully they will quickly pay this down.

Also in a trading halt for share placement so might be a good opportunity to move in if the price moves down afterwards.

BCD looks like it wants to be a lot higher, the sell side of the order book looking very thin 

But along with OGC is way too indebted for my liking.

I think in the end I will choose TRY.


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## nunthewiser

Holds TRY , SBM . and boys and gals i reckon a long term squiz at OQC chart maybe viable .. anyone see that long term cup and handle ?(or whatever you lingo using chartists like to cal;l it ) .i do NOT hold as yet but its on my radar/watchlist for a future entry/longer term hold


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## dutchie

Gold futures looking good to bust out of large triangle (black dotted lines). 
Near term resistance at 1356 and 1372.
If it breaks out then possibly hit 1372 before revisiting triangle before heading up again.
Bullish for Gold and gold stocks.
NCM,SBM,NST,RRL et al looking good.


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## noirua

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September 14, 2020








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RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:




					www.thetechnicaltraders.com


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## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


> *IT’S GO TIME FOR GOLD! NEXT STOP $2,250*
> September 14, 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's Go Time for Gold! Next Stop $2,250 - TheTechnicalTraders
> 
> 
> RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thetechnicaltraders.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 109176




I am looking at buying into a few million ounce resource Junior Gold Miners that are in their feasibility stage. Hopefully the mining companies will be well aligned to hit production within the couple of years and be well aligned with the much anticipated precious metal rise.


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## noirua

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am looking at buying into a few million ounce resource Junior Gold Miners that are in their feasibility stage. Hopefully the mining companies will be well aligned to hit production within the couple of years and be well aligned with the much anticipated precious metal rise.



I'm invested in quite a raft of Junior gold and silver explorers in Canada where there are very many hundreds of shares.  The majority are quoted on the smaller Canadian CSE Alternative market where most non-USA brokers can't trade the shares. Otherwise on the USA Over the Counter Market place or TSX or TSXV.
There is the UK AIM market offshore fund AIM:GPM where I have some money invested that cover all International markets.
The Aussie market in micro-cap explorers is something I've learnt to be more careful with. Best I find to go for ones that have already quite advanced exploration and close to a JORC resource and well cash funded. Rules quite a lot out as the majority go nowhere.


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## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


> I'm invested in quite a raft of Junior gold and silver explorers in Canada where there are very many hundreds of shares.  The majority are quoted on the smaller Canadian CSE Alternative market where most non-USA brokers can't trade the shares. Otherwise on the USA Over the Counter Market place or TSX or TSXV.
> There is the UK AIM market offshore fund AIM:GPM where I have some money invested that cover all International markets.
> The Aussie market in micro-cap explorers is something I've learnt to be more careful with. Best I find to go for ones that have already quite advanced exploration and close to a JORC resource and well cash funded. Rules quite a lot out as the majority go nowhere.




I tend to focus on junior miners that at least have a JORC estimate, and prefer that they have completed or are in the process of completing a feasibility study. Today I have been looking at BDC, KIN, and BRB; still haven't made a decision as I have more research to do.


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## noirua

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I tend to focus on junior miners that at least have a JORC estimate, and prefer that they have completed or are in the process of completing a feasibility study. Today I have been looking at BDC, KIN, and BRB; still haven't made a decision as I have more research to do.



Will have a look at the shares you mention. The Aussie is strengthening and I'm not quite sure on the reaction of gold and silver shares to this -


			https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.11185660660185537
		

My main small cap holding is in Norseman Gold PLC which is really an Aussie share setup in London originally to raise funds.  All assets including directors are Australian. Not quoted since 2013 and then as ASX:NGX and 2012 London LSE:NGL. Tied in now in a fifty fifty deal with Pantoro Gold PNR - https://www.pantoro.com.au/projects/norseman-project/


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## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


> Will have a look at the shares you mention. The Aussie is strengthening and I'm not quite sure on the reaction of gold and silver shares to this -
> 
> 
> https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.11185660660185537
> 
> 
> My main small cap holding is in Norseman Gold PLC which is really an Aussie share setup in London originally to raise funds.  All assets including directors are Australian. Not quoted since 2013 and then as ASX:NGX and 2012 London LSE:NGL. Tied in now in a fifty fifty deal with Pantoro Gold PNR - https://www.pantoro.com.au/projects/norseman-project/




I am still in the research phase with these companies and will hopefully make a decision in the coming weeks.


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## noirua




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## qldfrog

noirua said:


>




When was this published?


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## noirua

qldfrog said:


> When was this published?



Answer: 29 September 2020 -  https://jimrickards.blogspot.com/2020/09/jim-rickards-this-is-why-gold-is-going.html


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## noirua

28 September 2020


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## Garpal Gumnut

noirua said:


> 28 September 2020




I must agree with Thomas Kaplan. 

btw. Should ASF members get the opportunity a trip to Beaver Ck. is a must for golden aficionados.

gg


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## noirua

Aussie Gold Price:


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## noirua

October 9 2020


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## noirua




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## Chronos-Plutus

noirua said:


>





I am buying just physical gold and silver, no need to take risk on stocks when I can stack physical and not have to pay tax.

If they want Biden to win, then I will become richer.


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## noirua

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am buying just physical gold and silver, no need to take risk on stocks when I can stack physical and not have to pay tax.
> 
> If they want Biden to win, then I will become richer.



I've found it very easy to gradually load up gold on to my Tally Debit Card. It can be easily spent if needs be or just left to sit there.  It is backed by physical gold.


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## wayneL

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am buying just physical gold and silver, no need to take risk on stocks when I can stack physical and not have to pay tax.



I'm not 100% sure of the tax implications of physical. Surely selling gold triggers a CGT event?


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## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> I'm not 100% sure of the tax implications of physical. Surely selling gold triggers a CGT event?



I do declare, crypto as well and even portion of PPOR outside the 5 acres cgt free..but not sure many people do...


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## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> I do declare, crypto as well and even portion of PPOR outside the 5 acres cgt free..but not sure many people do...



I always wonder what happens if you have physical bullion and no longer have the receipts. You declare when you bought it,  what profit if any and pay cgt on it at tax time.  What if somebody asks for proof of the price you bought it at? At this stage it becomes a bit of a trust system doesn't it?


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## Austwide

Gold bullion seems to be subject to CGT like all other assets with a 50% tax discount after 12 months.

A lot of debate on gold coins purchased for under $500 if they are legal tender. Seems you need to get a tax ruling relevant to you circumstances, but I think CGT will be payable most times because the purchase intent was to get an asset.


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## Value Collector

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am buying just physical gold and silver, no need to take risk on stocks when I can stack physical and not have to pay tax.
> 
> If they want Biden to win, then I will become richer.




What makes you think you won't have to pay tax? the only way you will legally avoid paying tax is if you lose money or break even on your physical gold.

If you sell the gold for more than you buy it for, then you will incur capital gains tax just as you would if you sold Real estate, Stocks, scrap metal, Barrels of oil, bails of hay or anything else you can buy or sell.

if you are choosing your assets based on trying to avoid tax you will probably end up not doing so well in my opinion, I much prefer maximising my profits and paying some tax rather than seeking out ways to lose money or limit profits just to avoid tax.


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## Value Collector

againsthegrain said:


> I always wonder what happens if you have physical bullion and no longer have the receipts. You declare when you bought it,  what profit if any and pay cgt on it at tax time.  What if somebody asks for proof of the price you bought it at? At this stage it becomes a bit of a trust system doesn't it?




If you sell Physical Bullion, and can't prove what price you paid for it you may end up having the Total revenue of the transaction added to your taxable income.

For example, if you Sell $10,000 worth of gold the Tax office considers that as $10,000 of income, but if you can prove you paid $8,000 for it they allow you to deduct the $8,000 from the revenue and only add the $2000 profit to your taxable income, but with out the receipt showing you paid $8,000 for it, then there is no deduction, so the entire $10,000 might be added to your taxable income.


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## againsthegrain

Value Collector said:


> What makes you think you won't have to pay tax? they only way you will legally avoid paying tax is if you lose money on you physical gold.
> 
> If you buy the gold for more than you sell it for, then you will incur capital gains tax just as you would if you sold Real estate, Stocks, scrap metal, Barrels of oil, bails of hay or anything else you can buy or sell.




You could go running around to all the different exchanges and selling it for below the declarable limit,  2k or 3k? and collect cash on it but its pretty pointless since you will end up with $x cash and you still need to declare where it came from when you put it in the bank and digging yourself deeper. 
Every income is taxable in this country if you make money as a sole trader on your abn or sell gold in higher quantity. Money comes to your bank declare, pay cgt and reinvest profits.


----------



## againsthegrain

Value Collector said:


> If you sell Physical Bullion, and can't prove what price you paid for it you may end up having the Total revenue of the transaction added to your taxable income.
> 
> For example, if you Sell $10,000 worth of gold the Tax office considers that as $10,000 of income, but if you can prove you paid $8,000 for it they allow you to deduct the $8,000 from the revenue and only add the $2000 profit to your taxable income, but with out the receipt showing you paid $8,000 for it, then there is no deduction, so the entire $10,000 might be added to your taxable income.



I had a feeling its like that,  never really looked into it since I keep my receipts on the cloud and on my phone in digital form. wouldn't want to lose them.  That's if you get audited I guess


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## Value Collector

againsthegrain said:


> You could go running around to all the different exchanges and selling it for below the declarable limit,  2k or 3k? and collect cash on it but its pretty pointless since you will end up with $x cash and you still need to declare where it came from when you put it in the bank and digging yourself deeper.
> Every income is taxable in this country if you make money as a sole trader on your abn or sell gold in higher quantity. Money comes to your bank declare, pay cgt and reinvest profits.




Yep, or maybe install the gold as a counter top in your primary place of residence, and when you sell the house you won't have to pay capital gains tax on the house , I am not sure that would pass the acid test at the tax office though.


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## wayneL

What p1sses me off is that essentially, especially with something like gold (assuming that at its base, it just hedges against inflation over the long term), you are being taxed on the debasement of the currency.

That sucks.

This is why Australians are over the top about the value of ppor, it is the only untaxed hedge against the debasement of our currency.


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## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> What p1sses me off is that essentially, especially with something like gold (assuming that at its base, it just hedges against inflation over the long term), you are being taxed on the debasement of the currency.
> 
> That sucks.
> 
> This is why Australians are over the top about the value of ppor, it is the only untaxed hedge against the debasement of our currency.




The stamp duty will hunt you down still

ps interest you acquire on money in the bank also is taxable and that interest is currently lower then inflation


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## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> What p1sses me off is that essentially, especially with something like gold (assuming that at its base, it just hedges against inflation over the long term), you are being taxed on the debasement of the currency.
> 
> That sucks.
> 
> This is why Australians are over the top about the value of ppor, it is the only untaxed hedge against the debasement of our currency.




You can say the same with every real asset eg, Real estate, Stocks, etc etc some of the capital gains come from inflation over time, but are still taxable.

---------

What is even worse is that with shares, a large portion of the over all capital gains experienced in the share market comes from after tax earnings retained by the company, so the CGT is in part double taxation.

eg, XYZ company earns $1 pays $0.30 in tax (30%) and retains the remaining $0.70 to grow,... that growth then raises the share price from $10.00 to $10.70.... when you sell that $0.70 "Capital Gain" is then taxed again, even though it's the result of retained earnings that have already ben taxed.


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## wayneL

Yes indeed, which is why I made special mention of PPOR.

Assuming that via monetary and fiscal action we will enter a period of high or very high inflation at some point in the near future to inflate away the ridiculous debt, it double sucks.

My suggestion is for folks to consider that in their investment decisions. I certainly will be doing so.


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## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> Yes indeed, which is why I made special mention of PPOR.
> 
> Assuming that via monetary and fiscal action we will enter a period of high or very high inflation at some point in the near future to inflate away the ridiculous debt, it double sucks.
> 
> My suggestion is for folks to consider that in their investment decisions. I certainly will be doing so.




I still prefer gold,  when it comes to holding a asset vs cash.

Pros
- Easily liquid
- Easy to hide
- Don't have to sell the whole lot at once
Cons
- cgt (like said is there with every asset)
Ppor as a asset against inflation
- Can only have 1
- Not very liquid if you need the $ for opportunity
- Stamp duty when you buy
- Agent fees when you sell
- You still need to buy another one or rent
- High $ at the moment
Pros
- Historically very stable
- Excellent capital preservation if you bought before the boom

But we all have to live somewhere, just wouldn't treat a ppor as a instrument to offset inflation.

Say I see a great opportunity 100k I 100% want it,  by the time u sell the ppor it may be gone and you need to move out.
Or simply dig out that 1kg bullion or get it from the vault (whatever)  sell it same day done deal


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## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> Yes indeed, which is why I made special mention of PPOR.
> 
> Assuming that via monetary and fiscal action we will enter a period of high or very high inflation at some point in the near future to inflate away the ridiculous debt, it double sucks.
> 
> My suggestion is for folks to consider that in their investment decisions. I certainly will be doing so.




A benefit with holding a diversified well chosen portfolio of Shares and/or realestate, is that it does provide an inflation hedge in both Income and capital value, while also providing cashflow income.

----------
That cashflow income is of prime value, in that you can live off that inflation hedged income and delay the CGT event for many years perhaps forever, and so you can choose when to take the inflation tax hit, where as with gold if you eventually decide that you need to buy some bread to sustain your life you must sell some gold and take the CGT hit.

Saying all this though, atleast the 50% CGT discount goes some way to offset the inflation tax and double taxation of retained earnings, So when ever you hear some political party saying they wish to end the CGT discount we need to resist them, unless they limit taxes in other ways such as the USA system where they limit tax on CG and dividends to 15%.


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## Value Collector

againsthegrain said:


> Say I see a great opportunity 100k I 100% want it,  by the time u sell the ppor it may be gone and you need to move out.
> Or simply dig out that 1kg bullion or get it from the vault (whatever)  sell it same day done deal




You can always borrow against the PPOR to fund other investments, and then use an offset account to store all the tid bits of cash you have lying around to offset the interest.

----------------
That way you have a following 

1, A large Tax free inflation Hedged capital asset (your house) this offsets rental payments you normally have to pay with after tax dollars.

2, The liquidity to take any large opportunity you see (the loan)

3, a place to store illiquid bits and pieces of cash (spending money, upcoming tax payments, unearned options premiums etc) offsetting interest at rates more than you would get in a normal bank account,(the offset acccount)


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## noirua

wayneL said:


> I'm not 100% sure of the tax implications of physical. Surely selling gold triggers a CGT event?



It does depend which domain you are liable to pay tax in. Noting NZ, Hong Kong,  British Channel Islands and others have no capital gains tax.

You may be required to pay capital gains tax in Australia if your investment grade bullion has a greater value at the time of sale compared to the value at the time of purchase. However, sales of investment grade bullion do not attract GST.


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## Garpal Gumnut

The answer as to the treatment of gold bullion profits or losses by investors or traders such as ASF Members is "it depends".

I enclose a google search which showed the most recent informal advice in an ATO Community Forum. I must say partaking in such a forum is a bit like asking a crocodile whether he wants your barramundi or you when cornered at Cahills Crossing on the East Alligator River in the Northern Territory. 

I do remember many years ago my accountant going ballistic when I bought gold bar for my super fund. So it must be a fraught subject. I sold it for what I bought it.

Anyway here is the link to what I found when I googled. "ato treatment of gold sales"





__





						ATO Community
					





					community.ato.gov.au
				




gg


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## Value Collector

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The answer as to the treatment of gold bullion profits or losses by investors or traders such as ASF Members is "it depends".
> 
> I enclose a google search which showed the most recent informal advice in an ATO Community Forum. I must say partaking in such a forum is a bit like asking a crocodile whether he wants your barramundi or you when cornered at Cahills Crossing on the East Alligator River in the Northern Territory.
> 
> I do remember many years ago my accountant going ballistic when I bought gold bar for my super fund. So it must be a fraught subject. I sold it for what I bought it.
> 
> Anyway here is the link to what I found when I googled. "ato treatment of gold sales"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ATO Community
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> community.ato.gov.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg



So it’s in the same category as shares and realestate eg, you will get the capital gains discount if you are “investing” but no discount if you are “trading”, but either way they want their pound of flesh from an gain you make.


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## bigdog

Gold down 4.58% today


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## againsthegrain

bigdog said:


> Gold down 4.58% today
> 
> View attachment 114419
> 
> View attachment 114418




on vaccine news probably... which is no definitive news


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## wayneL

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The answer as to the treatment of gold bullion profits or losses by investors or traders such as ASF Members is "it depends".
> 
> I enclose a google search which showed the most recent informal advice in an ATO Community Forum. I must say partaking in such a forum is a bit like asking a crocodile whether he wants your barramundi or you when cornered at Cahills Crossing on the East Alligator River in the Northern Territory.
> 
> I do remember many years ago my accountant going ballistic when I bought gold bar for my super fund. So it must be a fraught subject. I sold it for what I bought it.
> 
> Anyway here is the link to what I found when I googled. "ato treatment of gold sales"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ATO Community
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> community.ato.gov.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gg



Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019.

Lot of those earlier purchases I can't even remember what I bought them for.

How would that work tax-wise, if I flogged a couple of coins here and there?

I don't intend selling any anytime soon, but I suppose at some stage that will be the point.


----------



## againsthegrain

wayneL said:


> Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019.
> 
> Lot of those earlier purchases I can't even remember what I bought them for.
> 
> How would that work tax-wise, if I flogged a couple of coins here and there?
> 
> I don't intend selling any anytime soon, but I suppose at some stage that will be the point.




If you sell them for cash then its really upto how honest you are with the taxman,  if its a recorded transaction then better ask a good accountant. 

ps the broker where I buy gold doesn't require id or any record for buying  under 5k cash,  not sure about selling because I haven't sold yet but I imagine they would also have similar limits.


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## Garpal Gumnut

wayneL said:


> Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019.
> 
> Lot of those earlier purchases I can't even remember what I bought them for.
> 
> How would that work tax-wise, if I flogged a couple of coins here and there?
> 
> I don't intend selling any anytime soon, but I suppose at some stage that will be the point.



Kerry Packer says it all. 



gg


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## jbocker

wayneL said:


> Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019.
> 
> Lot of those earlier purchases I can't even remember what I bought them for.
> 
> How would that work tax-wise, if I flogged a couple of coins here and there?
> 
> I don't intend selling any anytime soon, but I suppose at some stage that will be the point.



I wonder if you talk to your tax agent, the earlier purchase appear to be made as a collector hobbyist (your call). Then as you say more seriously purchases (as an Investor?) from 2019. I know 'intent of purchase' is considered and if it is allowable wouldn't try to stretch it too far.


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## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019.
> 
> Lot of those earlier purchases I can't even remember what I bought them for.
> 
> How would that work tax-wise, if I flogged a couple of coins here and there?
> 
> I don't intend selling any anytime soon, but I suppose at some stage that will be the point.




A loop hole that I believe still exists is the Hobby, you can earn up to $1000 per year from a "Hobby" tax free, if your coin trading was actually part of your "Coin collecting hobby" the first $1000 each year is going to be tax free.

Also, if you are dealing in small amounts,  and your transactions are not recorded anywhere who will know, its a bit like people making making a few dollars here and there of scrap metal, if the amounts are small I don't feel they are morally obligated to claim, however if they are making over $1000 per year from it, its probably correct to declare it.


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## Austwide

@wayneL " Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019. "

Check to be sure but no GCT pre 1983 purchases!! (maybe 85)


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## Value Collector

Austwide said:


> @wayneL " Here's an interesting question then... I've got coins that I've purchased way back in 1982 and have added a little bit here in there since then, but a little bit more serious buying since 2019. "
> 
> Check to be sure but no GCT pre 1983 purchases!! (maybe 85)



Good point


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## noirua

'Gold doesn't need inflation to go higher' - George Milling-Stanley - Kitco
					

'Gold doesn't need inflation to go higher' - George Milling-Stanley




					www.kitco.com


----------



## noirua

Gold 3-day chart: https://www.kitco.com/images/live/goldw.gif


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## noirua

9 December 2020
*Market crash coming? Jim Rogers says not yet; invest in these ‘hated’ assets
Gold mentioned some 13 minutes in.*


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## noirua




----------



## brerwallabi

Gold invariably does well in January, so do some gold stocks, still holding some 1oz little gold bars bought at $1650 but OGC wish I never heard of hem.


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## MrBurns

Any thoughts on NST ???
I'm thinking of buying more....or should I go for silver if so which stock ?


----------



## Joules MM1

"this is not a bubble"
the drinkers drink


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## MrBurns

Meaning ?


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## finicky

@MrBurns I'm holding NST but its become too volatile lately for me to buy. Also it's too hard to value it when the Saracen merger happens, all the fundamental stats are all mixed up like the book value and ROE. The M.D of NST has been showing himself to be pretty greedy in allotting himself performance shares - I've gone right off him. It's not like he's risking his life in his occupation and he's enjoying the benefits of a bull market.

A lot of punters have come to grief backing Australian silver stocks. It's a field infested with charlatans who know their prospects will boom on speculation during rising silver prices, whatever the quality of their projects. One example is Macmin Mining which busted in the first silver bull and then reincarnated as Alcyone Resources by repackaging the same crap project (Texas silver mine in QLD). Alcyone then rapidly proceeded to hyperinflate their share issuance to pay management before busting in the second silver bull. Macmin/Alcyone were symptomatic of the 'industry', not an isolated example.

I've been investing in Horizon Resources (HRZ) for its W.A gold project and still have a partially filled bid for more @10c but HRZ also has an idle silver project called 'Nimbus' that has a chance of revival or sale. I haven't looked into it much.

_"Horizon Minerals is the result of a merger between Intermin Resources (ASX: IRC) and MacPhersons Resources (ASX: MRP), which subsequently delisted in June 2019.
The emerging gold producer has exposure to silver by way of its 100% owned Nimbus silver-zinc-lead-gold project near Kalgoorlie-Boulder in Western Australia.
Nimbus is a shallow-water and low-temperature volcanic hosted massive sulphide deposit with epithermal characteristics.
It has a current mineral resource estimate of 12.08Mt at 52g/t silver, 0.2g/t gold and 0.9% zinc containing 20.2Moz silver, 77,000oz gold and 101,000t zinc.
Within this global resource, Nimbus has a high-grade silver-zinc resource of 255,898t at 773g/t silver and 13% zinc containing 6.4Moz silver and 33,000t zinc.
No recent activity has been reported for this project"_

Another goldie explorer I have been accumulating is Kingwest Minerals (KWR) also near Kalgoorlie. They inherited mining licences within their tenements so don't have to go through the application processes. They are near a number of processing plants raising the expressed option of early contract mining and toll milling. They're on a richly endowed historic field where underground mining was halted during the WW2 years and pit mining ceased in the late 1990's during $400/oz prices 

For silver I have a metal account with a dealer for the physical metal but of course there is no leverage in that. My equity exposure is limited. I hold some S32 which has magnificent silver exposure in two early stage projects but production is years down the pipe-line. S32 also owns Cannington lead/silver mine but S32 silver exposure is diluted by all its other mineral interests. I have also been buying Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) which owns a 'shovel ready' silver project in Chile - Nueva Esperanza. But KCN is mainly a speculation on a litigation outcome against the government of Thailand.

I've talked about what I am doing because we can't make recommendations but also I can't resist warning against Australian primary silver mining or exploration projects when the topic comes up. The same dud projects are out there being repackaged to take advantage of the next crop of silver enthusiasts during the next silver craze 









						Silver stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide
					

In this report on ASX listed silver stocks Small Caps covers which companies are exploring and mining the commodity, including a market overview of silver supply and demand.




					smallcaps.com.au


----------



## qldfrog

finicky said:


> @MrBurns I'm holding NST but its become too volatile lately for me to buy. Also it's too hard to value it when the Saracen merger happens, all the fundamental stats are all mixed up like the book value and ROE. The M.D of NST has been showing himself to be pretty greedy in allotting himself performance shares - I've gone right off him. It's not like he's risking his life in his occupation and he's enjoying the benefits of a bull market.
> 
> A lot of punters have come to grief backing Australian silver stocks. It's a field infested with charlatans who know their prospects will boom on speculation during rising silver prices, whatever the quality of their projects. One example is Macmin Mining which busted in the first silver bull and then reincarnated as Alcyone Resources by repackaging the same crap project (Texas silver mine in QLD). Alcyone then rapidly proceeded to hyperinflate their share issuance to pay management before busting in the second silver bull. Macmin/Alcyone were symptomatic of the 'industry', not an isolated example.
> 
> I've been investing in Horizon Resources (HRZ) for its W.A gold project and still have a partially filled bid for more @10c but HRZ also has an idle silver project called 'Nimbus' that has a chance of revival or sale. I haven't looked into it much.
> 
> _"Horizon Minerals is the result of a merger between Intermin Resources (ASX: IRC) and MacPhersons Resources (ASX: MRP), which subsequently delisted in June 2019.
> The emerging gold producer has exposure to silver by way of its 100% owned Nimbus silver-zinc-lead-gold project near Kalgoorlie-Boulder in Western Australia.
> Nimbus is a shallow-water and low-temperature volcanic hosted massive sulphide deposit with epithermal characteristics.
> It has a current mineral resource estimate of 12.08Mt at 52g/t silver, 0.2g/t gold and 0.9% zinc containing 20.2Moz silver, 77,000oz gold and 101,000t zinc.
> Within this global resource, Nimbus has a high-grade silver-zinc resource of 255,898t at 773g/t silver and 13% zinc containing 6.4Moz silver and 33,000t zinc.
> No recent activity has been reported for this project"_
> 
> Another goldie explorer I have been accumulating is Kingwest Minerals (KWR) also near Kalgoorlie. They inherited mining licences within their tenements so don't have to go through the application processes. They are near a number of processing plants raising the expressed option of early contract mining and toll milling. They're on a richly endowed historic field where underground mining was halted during the WW2 years and pit mining ceased in the late 1990's during $400/oz prices
> 
> For silver I have a metal account with a dealer for the physical metal but of course there is no leverage in that. My equity exposure is limited. I hold some S32 which has magnificent silver exposure in two early stage projects but production is years down the pipe-line. S32 also owns Cannington lead/silver mine but S32 silver exposure is diluted by all its other mineral interests. I have also been buying Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) which owns a 'shovel ready' silver project in Chile - Nueva Esperanza. But KCN is mainly a speculation on a litigation outcome against the government of Thailand.
> 
> I've talked about what I am doing because we can't make recommendations but also I can't resist warning against Australian primary silver mining or exploration projects when the topic comes up. The same dud projects are out there being repackaged to take advantage of the next crop of silver enthusiasts during the next silver craze
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Silver stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide
> 
> 
> In this report on ASX listed silver stocks Small Caps covers which companies are exploring and mining the commodity, including a market overview of silver supply and demand.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> smallcaps.com.au



Any view on SVL?


----------



## MrBurns

Thanks fellas the problem is this -
Money in the bank is useless.
Bank offered me .11% so I just placed it back in a TD for 14 days till I decide what to do.
I'm burning capital every time I shop.
I'm retired no income but asset ok, but don't qualify for any benefits.
I either buy gold and hope it goes up then take the profit along the way or find a dividend stock that I can rely on.


----------



## finicky

I haven't looked at it @qldfrog, it being in a category I now ignore, viz aussie primary silver stocks.
Out of interest in the upcoming sector swindle thougn I'll check it out during the rest of the week and comment on its thread fwiw.

I do think the best way though is to buy producers of other minerals that have silver as a by-product - Sandfire (SFR) is another like this apparently I just read. If not a producer, then an explorer/miner with credible prospects in another metal which is its principle focus (gold, copper) and again looking to silver as a by-product.


----------



## finicky

MrBurns said:


> Money in the bank is useless.



That depends, it might be the best asset to have this year - sometimes it is. People are being forced into risky speculation by low interest rates
My 'suggestions' are a bit useless if you need income generation except for S32 (you might like to look at SFR in this context too). I procrastinated about buying SFR and feel it's got away but have it high on a watchlist if there's a crash. HRZ and KWR are too risky if finances are tight.
Money in the bank is a lot better than getting ripped off by white collar quasi criminals and if there's a crash anyone holding cash will have opportunity.


----------



## MrBurns

Thanks , I don't have a good history with shares, bought SDL they went bust.
AC8 losing a bundle there.
NST Ok
Down on VHS and VHY but they should be ok in the end
Also IGL down there as well


----------



## finicky

@MrBurns have you looked at Regis Resources (RRL)? Might fit your criteria. It doesn't shoot the lights out for capital gain but has been a reliable franked dividend payer for the last 5 years - should be good for another 16c div fy2021 which is 4% ff yield on the closing price today of $3.85, not counting the imputation credit. It performed on a +20% ROE for the last 5 years which looks repeatable for fy21 if there's not a crash, had a really bad year in 2014. It's holding quite a bit of cash too although this might be ear-marked for an upcoming project development (McPhillamys in NSW). It is criticised by some for its heavy hedge book but that speaks to the conservative nature of management and the hedges might even turn out to be an an advantage if there is a global crash that pulls down gold with it. That last is my major caveat emptor for anyone risking cash lately. I am a holder of RRL, also I subscribe to a gold commentator on Patreon 'between the lines finance' and he holds RRL. I quite like the prospects for the chart of RRL, although this is obviously very fallible, but it might be forming a 'medium term' rounding low around here. I won't be adding myself - hold 5,000 shares. Your call. It's also a 2021 pick from the analysts at Bell Potter which I am posting later on the RRL thread


----------



## MrBurns

Thanks I'll have a look.....


----------



## noirua

While GameStop still has upside to $500, traders need to be aware that traditional technical and fundamental analysis has limited use in this type of situation, said Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at InTheMoneyStocks


			https://stream2.kitco.com/21_01_26_Wagner_liferay.mp4


----------



## barney

Buy Gold tonight (8pm Friday 19 Feb)  .... Could be wrong; could be right  

See how we go next week


----------



## noirua

21 February 2021


----------



## Bik

Gold stocks can give you some good leverage to rising gold prices and you don't have to worry about the currency effect of buying and holding gold. If you wanted to reduce risk and buy a basket of Aussie Gold Producers, you could buy an ETF such as GDX or MNRS. Otherwise you could buy individual gold producers or explorers but then you have increased risk that the company has issues and you don't profit from a rising gold price (if the price does rise). 

I talk about ways to profit from Gold and Silver in this video:


----------



## noirua

Is gold set to tear even higher? Four key charts to watch
					

Bullion is one of the best-performing commodities this month, erasing almost all of this year’s losses.




					www.mining.com


----------



## noirua

July 9, 2021


----------



## divs4ever

MrBurns said:


> Thanks fellas the problem is this -
> Money in the bank is useless.
> Bank offered me .11% so I just placed it back in a TD for 14 days till I decide what to do.
> I'm burning capital every time I shop.
> I'm retired no income but asset ok, but don't qualify for any benefits.
> I either buy gold and hope it goes up then take the profit along the way or find a dividend stock that I can rely on.



 this is NOT financial advice , just what i am doing currently 

( i hold other stocks  but this is what i am doing in the last two months )

 i am looking for reasonably priced gold-producer stocks ( that pay dividends  and some gold producers don't or are very sporadic  ) but not ignoring div-paying miners of iron , copper etc etc  , but the goldies seem to be left behind currently , and they are getting the bulk of the spending 

 if i did plump for gold  , i would take physical possession of it ( under the floorboard or mattress  ) but that leaves you a security issue  , if times get tough there will be more people stealing  ,  i see gold  as a value marker  and would probably NOT sell it , but maybe swap it when you really  need some ready , say buying a house or  weekender , etc etc 

 i agree money in the bank is basically eroding in value , but heck i am finding it hard to find sensible places to invest it 

 i am sad to say i can't think of an easy solution for me , so what chance have i got picking a winning strategy for you 

 good luck


----------



## againsthegrain

The non 4 big banks offer a much higher rate at the moment.  For example amp offers 1.25% opposed to anz at 0.25%


----------



## divs4ever

1.25%    ... yes but what is the real inflation rate  , the RBA is hoping for 2% and some folks think it is double that  or more 

 and outside the Government bank guarantee  , there is clearly risk 

 in 2011 to 2016 i was dabbling in corporate hybrids ( including MQG and Heritage Bank )  at the current offerings i rarely even look there now let alone reach for the calculator 

 cheers


----------



## noirua

Gold Stocks versus the Gold Price – Talking Wealth Podcast: Stock Market Trading and Investing Education | Wealth Creation | Expert Share Market Analysis – Podcast
					

In this week's Talking Wealth podcast, Janine discusses how the gold price has performed and compares it to the volatility and movement of Newcrest Mining. She also shares a number of key points inves... – Listen to Gold Stocks versus the Gold Price by Talking Wealth Podcast: Stock Market...




					podtail.com


----------



## The Triangle

divs4ever said:


> this is NOT financial advice , just what i am doing currently
> 
> ( i hold other stocks  but this is what i am doing in the last two months )
> 
> i am looking for reasonably priced gold-producer stocks ( that pay dividends  and some gold producers don't or are very sporadic  ) but not ignoring div-paying miners of iron , copper etc etc  , but the goldies seem to be left behind currently , and they are getting the bulk of the spending
> 
> if i did plump for gold  , i would take physical possession of it ( under the floorboard or mattress  ) but that leaves you a security issue  , if times get tough there will be more people stealing  ,  i see gold  as a value marker  and would probably NOT sell it , but maybe swap it when you really  need some ready , say buying a house or  weekender , etc etc
> 
> i agree money in the bank is basically eroding in value , but heck i am finding it hard to find sensible places to invest it
> 
> i am sad to say i can't think of an easy solution for me , so what chance have i got picking a winning strategy for you
> 
> good luck



Not sure of this fantasy world people live in where gold is a savior....  Who's ever made a fortune investing in physical gold?   Maybe investing in junior explorers yes.  But physical gold over the long-term?  

If the economy collapses so badly that stocks and currency are worthless and people are breaking in to your house to steal your gold then that gold won't really be of much value anyways - and if Australia is in that bad a shape - chances are the rest of the world is in worse shape.   Guns, ammo, alcohol, cigarettes, food, property - much better store of value in that case.

I would look at companies with the lowest AISC and highest resource/reserves as they probably can withstand price drops and have longevity.


----------



## peter2

My sympathies to all those holding gold stocks. Since the rally in the gold price 8 days ago it's been a volatile ride. Ouch.


----------



## divs4ever

The Triangle said:


> Not sure of this fantasy world people live in where gold is a savior....  Who's ever made a fortune investing in physical gold?   Maybe investing in junior explorers yes.  But physical gold over the long-term?
> 
> If the economy collapses so badly that stocks and currency are worthless and people are breaking in to your house to steal your gold then that gold won't really be of much value anyways - and if Australia is in that bad a shape - chances are the rest of the world is in worse shape.   Guns, ammo, alcohol, cigarettes, food, property - much better store of value in that case.
> 
> I would look at companies with the lowest AISC and highest resource/reserves as they probably can withstand price drops and have longevity.



 i see gold as a lifeless inert metal  and in the current world that is a GOOD thing  ,  i see it as something you are likely to be able to barter when acquiring high value items , a property , a herd of cows  , maybe a business to support your family  , when you need it 

 but gold is also  portable enough to transport if you really have to move ( assuming your hoard isn't many tonnes of it  )

 if gold has no value why do nation states seize it from citizens during war-time and other major financial collapses ( so you better hide your stash real good )

 now i like gold producers as a compromise , some chance of a steady income  , and inversely leveraged to the local currency  ( you know that stuff printed up because some airline starts tearing up )

 now  i am slowly stock-piling honey ( and should really track down some recipes for mead ) so yes i can hear what you are saying  but when the economy (officially) falls over this time what will it be like ... some clown salesman won't get this nation  motivated you can bet on that  .

 ASIC isn't everything but it is a good number to start with  on your research journey


----------



## wayneL

The Triangle said:


> Not sure of this fantasy world people live in where gold is a savior....  Who's ever made a fortune investing in physical gold?   Maybe investing in junior explorers yes.  But physical gold over the long-term?
> 
> If the economy collapses so badly that stocks and currency are worthless and people are breaking in to your house to steal your gold then that gold won't really be of much value anyways - and if Australia is in that bad a shape - chances are the rest of the world is in worse shape.   Guns, ammo, alcohol, cigarettes, food, property - much better store of value in that case.
> 
> I would look at companies with the lowest AISC and highest resource/reserves as they probably can withstand price drops and have longevity.



One Economist once described gold as like a zero coupon bond and almost all of the macro boys will have at least some physical gold in their portfolio.

Should one be 100% invested in gold? 

I don't think so and neither do most hedge funds and macro guys. Most are somewhere between 5 and 25% and I must admit that due to capital gain and accumulation I'm creeping up to about that 25% myself.

At this stage of my life and given the precariousness of currencies and the banking system, I'm quite happy to keep my dry powder in that form.

And you bet your sweet ass that I have got at least 25% in what I call the wild west part of my portfolio is shooting for 10 baggers or something like that.

The rest at the moment I have applied a holy **** strap (riders of yang-yangs will know what I mean there  )


----------



## divs4ever

i think George Gammon ( You-Tube property investor ) has a fair strategy 
 10%  gold ( insurance ) , 80% income ( stuff that pays you while  you own it  ) and 10% speculative ( betting the price will go up , that includes cryptos  , but not only cryptos  )

 well if you are self-sufficient on a farm  , a heavy stash of gold MIGHT be good  , but if you have to ineract with people ( and tax-addicted governments ) you will need something else ( with gold or silver as an emergency  back-up )

 if you need to interact with the outside world there is a thing called inflation ( the erosion of your buying power ) that can be a tough enemy to beat ( but governments love it because it helps make THEIR debt trivial )

 my multi-baggers go up by themselves much to my surprise ( of course  some other 'quality  stocks' vanish into a black hole  )

 MQG is the only stock  i have successfully predicted to double  ( up 480% for me ) in the 10 years i have been investing .. if looking for tips .. others have a much better success rate  ( my gift  is saying WOW maybe i should take some money off the table , when it is rising or wallowing in limbo  .. like AMP in 2018 or IPL as examples )

 cheers


----------



## The Triangle

I just don't see any point of investing in physical gold or mature gold producers if you are living in a first world nation (unless you think it will go up enough to pull in a good capital gain over the short term).  Maybe in Zimbabwe having a stash of gold is a good idea as it could get you on a people smuggling boat to Australia when the local currency collapsed or your shares in the local stock exchange went to zero.

If you wanted to invest in gold - you need to ask why?  If it's to keep some value if humanity enters a post apocalyptic state - then I wouldn't go anywhere near gold producers, I'd buy a heap of little 5g bars from the mint.   If its to speculate on the price going up - then I would be inclined to buy juniors who could benefit from that increase in price by turning a worthless resource in to a profitable resource - and then my little 5g bars as a second less risky choice.  But buying shares of existing producers to me is just strange as the upside is usually somewhat limited and there is still risk of the company faltering through incompetent management and I thought the purpose of holding gold was generally to de-risk for most people.

Look at all the main gold miners - most are still at a lower SP now than they were when gold was $600/ounce.    It's only been the ones who have grown from small players with marginal mines that have performed well.  Once you get to a MC in the 10s of billions you just can't do much to grow bigger.


----------



## divs4ever

physical gold  held VERY close to you  might be useful in dire circumstances

 unlike currency  , now they are NOT paper  , they are unless to feed a fire or  for sanitary uses

 if gold was useless in a crisis  why have so many governments seized it in the past

 i still prefer gold stocks and non-bullion gold


----------



## wayneL

divs4ever said:


> physical gold  held VERY close to you  might be useful in dire circumstances
> 
> unlike currency  , now they are NOT paper  , they are unless to feed a fire or  for sanitary uses
> 
> if gold was useless in a crisis  why have so many governments seized it in the past
> 
> i still prefer gold stocks and non-bullion gold



The eternal debate.

Yep, hard to calve off a piece of your 1oz coin (now worth a trillion useless Pacific pesos) to buy a loaf if bread and a hand made machete (Which I can make... Ring me if the apocalypse happens)

But by the same token... A nuke in the stratosphere and none of us can access anything valued by fiat.

It'll be barter only...

So gold/silver, tins of baked beans, baseball bats and machetes will be the currency. 

And maybe your humble farrier might be in demand


----------



## divs4ever

i was thinking more like gold for a house ( or a hut if you don't have much like me ) , your gold coin for some cows you could milk  them or a dozen chickens 

 just because the system has imploded intelligence applied  , will still have it's rewards 

 but barter and self-suffiency might be very valuable


----------



## Value Collector

divs4ever said:


> physical gold  held VERY close to you  might be useful in dire circumstances
> 
> unlike currency  , now they are NOT paper  , they are unless to feed a fire or  for sanitary uses
> 
> if gold was useless in a crisis  why have so many governments seized it in the past
> 
> i still prefer gold stocks and non-bullion gold



I guess if you want to have an escape kit ready in the safe then having some gold, along with a fake passport and a stash a several different currencies might be useful, But in that situation it might be better to go with diamonds rather than gold, as they are easier to get through metal detectors without raising alarms bells.


----------



## Value Collector

wayneL said:


> It'll be barter only...
> 
> So gold/silver, tins of baked beans, baseball bats and machetes will be the currency.
> 
> And maybe your humble farrier might be in demand



 I imagine that if their is a zombie apocalypse, I will probably die the first day. So I don't plan for apocalyptic events, I plan for the most likely rosy outcome.


----------



## divs4ever

having a little skill in the bush , i probably wouldn't move far ( miles more likely  than states/nations )  , given the instability in many nations where would you go  , most  high volume  routes are liable to be plagued by thieves and government officials  

 for a rough guide check out what happened to WW2 refugees  in almost any theatre of the war  , this time the soldiers might NOT be on your side and just as desperate as you


----------



## wayneL

Value Collector said:


> I imagine that if their is a zombie apocalypse, I will probably die the first day. So I don't plan for apocalyptic events, I plan for the most likely rosy outcome.



Agree.

Just playing along, but still like a bit of physical for other reasons than the zombie apocalypse. In fact I think 5he zombie apocalypse has already arrived


----------



## divs4ever

Value Collector said:


> I imagine that if their is a zombie apocalypse, I will probably die the first day. So I don't plan for apocalyptic events, I plan for the most likely rosy outcome.



 i plan the best i can and HOPE for a happy outcome  , walk around the city streets at night and you might find the zombie apocalypse is already here


----------



## divs4ever

wayneL said:


> Agree.
> 
> Just playing along, but still like a bit of physical for other reasons than the zombie apocalypse. In fact I think 5he zombie apocalypse has already arrived



did you mean the smart-phone addiction ??


----------



## wayneL

divs4ever said:


> did you mean the smart-phone addiction ??



Well there's that.

But then there is, despite the modern information superhighway, your traditional attitude polarization... Complete lack of critical thinking.


----------



## peter2

Zombies are called "Wokes" now. 

Thanks, but we're skating near the edge of this topic.


----------



## divs4ever

don't neglect the gold hiding in your smartphone  , going to be dificult and dangerous to get some of it out  but it is there , and the phone might have little other use (if you can't recharge it )


----------



## divs4ever

for cash-flow ( div. income) i definitely prefer gold stocks  hoping that any financial melt-down ( restructure ) will include a currency replacement  , if not back to the stone age we go .


----------



## qldfrog

I am a firm believer that the Reset.Davos style... planned and managed is under way under the guise/pretext of covid-19/20/21/22..
Where would gold/gold producer/junior stand?
If the masses are to be reduced and moved back to where they belong and a return to a slaves and master world.. my summary of this reset..not that the Davos economic forum says it that way, i see share holding as much as fiat currency under siege: seizure by gov or just diseappear due to stock exchange closed or internet down.
You do not need a zombie apocalypse for this to happen.
In France, wall papers using "emprunts russes" were not uncommon.
Investment in russian coupons issued by the Tsar before the Russian revolution....were gold and sovereign backed ...and turn to 0
So then physical gold is your friend.
And as Wayne says,near you , next to ammos boxes et proper artillery
In the meantime,. I am probably guilty having some gold producers,now in ETF to avoid some individual risk but i think the argument for a juniors exposure only is probably right.see it through your own past experience..the big ones have been no where near they should be considering the profit they make per ounce.as soon as cash is freed, new purchese, assets,etc etc usually with a spp.
Is the aim of a gold priducer to return profit or extend its limited lifetime by buying new fields and so keeping the management in place.guess what,the management knows.this is valid for mining but emplified with gold


----------



## divs4ever

you assume people will be highly productive without  the incentive of personal gain , i think you will find the result of the Soviet Union and other failed Communist governments will show you what happens  and worker productivity declines  , ESPECIALLY if they get a taste of the UBI  ( universal benefit )

 now if the Great Rest 'nationalizes all businesses ' ( all business now belong to the central government  , what will happen to inovation  Musk Branson and Bezos  will be off playing space cadet  of is that space invader ) and shares and corporate bonds will become worthless 

 my bet on gold stocks is a bet the Great Reset stumbles before it can be implemented properly  , if not i will own nothing , and best of luck trying to make me happy  about that  .


----------



## qldfrog

A last point, in favor of physical gold:
Radical changes can happen quickly, a big solar flare can come anytime, the last big one melted telegraph lines in the 1900.the same now would mean: within one hour :half of all electric and electronic systems in the world would be melted (this is for a single flash, if the flares go for 24h, this is the whole planet, as would half of the satellites.assuming power plants and nuclear silos are protected enough,and not complete the destruction this means immediate carnage, an Armageddon with just a tiny bit of solar flare.
No asx power cars train or transport farming equipment..better have some gold and guns to get the last can of beans..
Ideally get a farm, not a gold bar


----------



## divs4ever

that solar flare would  be interesting i try to collect scrap copper ( a normal government is less likely to seize that  ) would be nice to use the solar flare ( magnified) to create crude copper ingots

 hopefully there will still be some 'weeds ' to eat  and won't need the can of beans  ( that is if all those crazy agriculturists haven't killed them off ) stuff like prickly pear and sotch thistle  , not a huge fan of guns , they normally  make a lot of noise  , and alert neighbours of your presence  and despite my preference for gold over crypto  , neither are much  good if you have nobody to trade with .


----------



## Telamelo

Don't know about you guy's but I'm fully loaded & ready across my gold stocks... reckon war is coming soon as Putin won't back down & neither will the US/NATO


----------



## divs4ever

Telamelo said:


> Don't know about you guy's but I'm fully loaded & ready across my gold stocks... reckon war is coming soon as Putin won't back down & neither will the US/NATO





 am not FULLY loaded   in gold stocks , i still have some top-up orders in the market  , but probably have about half of what i am willing to buy ( if the price is right ) 

 they will attempt a war  because it is the only proven way the West has to get out of the mess they have created  ( i would like to see this mess cleaned  up without a war  , but i suspect a war we will have , either a civil one or an international one .. government CAN get overthrown during wars  by the citizens )

 spoiler alert  ... Putin will be pragmatic enough to take a draw  ( a lose/lose war ) so be VERY careful


----------



## wayneL

divs4ever said:


> am not FULLY loaded   in gold stocks , i still have some top-up orders in the market  , but probably have about half of what i am willing to buy ( if the price is right )
> 
> they will attempt a war  because it is the only proven way the West has to get out of the mess they have created  ( i would like to see this mess cleaned  up without a war  , but i suspect a war we will have , either a civil one or an international one .. government CAN get overthrown during wars  by the citizens )
> 
> spoiler alert  ... Putin will be pragmatic enough to take a draw  ( a lose/lose war ) so be VERY careful




I can't see it. The possibility of escalation and MAD (if that is still a thing), or at least *massive global damage...

...over a tinpot sh1thole like Ukraine?

This is assuming all parties involved are sane, which is arguable.


----------



## divs4ever

Ukraine  is just a troubled place on the map

 the MASSIVE destruction is when all those debt obligations unravel ( and the derivatives  attached to the debt )

 sane ??  we have just been through a two year virus saga  which would pose the question  .. what is sane , NOW

 now Putin successfully bluffed once in front of a Soviet Embassy ( when all help was too far away ) , is he bluffing with a whole army to back him ( because 80% of the parliament is ex-Soviet intelligence  , not just standard military ) or not

 given Russia's huge land mass and SOME Russians are likely to survive  , i think MAD is on the table  rather than outright surrender ( look what they did to Japan  , and Iraq )

 the West is hoping for a distraction ( just like WW2 )

 i think it is all about unserviceable debt entanglements ( beware of governments confiscating gold )

 so however unpalatable  MAD is to me  , i must leave it in my risk calculations


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> I can't see it. The possibility of escalation and MAD (if that is still a thing), or at least *massive global damage...
> 
> ...over a tinpot sh1thole like Ukraine?
> 
> This is assuming all parties involved are sane, which is arguable.



Bidden needs a distraction,is blackmailed by Ukraine after the corruption story with his son.and Putin has to draw the line or nato will install nissile on the red square.
Ukraine in Russia back garden.
A perfect analogy would be Russia installing missiles in Quebec and Quebec claiming all of Canada should speak French and fight the US.
I think moscow is less than 400km from the Ukrainian border, and Putin does fight for his country..
Wishing Biden would too


----------



## divs4ever

am surprised Russia hasn't installed ( ground to air ) missile defense batteries already in the rebel states  to counter the only clear advantage the government forces have  ..


 and cheekily call them 'peace-keeping measures ' ( since using the Russia Air Force to do the same job would risk being called  provocation )


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

wayneL said:


> Agree.
> 
> Just playing along, but still like a bit of physical for other reasons than the zombie apocalypse. In fact I think 5he zombie apocalypse has already arrived



Looking at Morrison and his Cabinet it would appear that the Choir of God’s Happy Clappers has been taken over by The Zombie Apocalypse.

Gold Bar buried or in the Perth Vault will do me atm.

gg


----------



## againsthegrain




----------



## divs4ever

am starting to wonder if the Zombie  Apocalypse needs any sort of war at all given the current barrage of propaganda


----------



## divs4ever

againsthegrain said:


>




 but are they WILLING ??

 i remember stories of Italy prior to WW2  , not being so solidly behind the leader 

 and from what i understand the Ukraine is still carrying some scars from WW2 as well


----------



## againsthegrain

divs4ever said:


> but are they WILLING ??
> 
> i remember stories of Italy prior to WW2  , not being so solidly behind the leader
> 
> and from what i understand the Ukraine is still carrying some scars from WW2 as well




Only a million or two died from the great famine orchistrated by Stalin ussr,  easily forgotten by the former buddies


----------



## divs4ever

from what i hear  there are bad memories on both sides ( those that fought Hitler and those who embraced him ) but a full on civil war  will probably impact this year's planting season ,

 so for 2022 , do you go to war or feed your family ?? how many are asking themselves that question


----------



## againsthegrain

divs4ever said:


> from what i hear  there are bad memories on both sides ( those that fought Hitler and those who embraced him ) but a full on civil war  will probably impact this year's planting season ,
> 
> so for 2022 , do you go to war or feed your family ?? how many are asking themselves that question




In Eastern Europe thats how it is, your always wedged between some big guys waiting to squash you, nazis, ottomans, mongols, vikings you name it..  you go to war its in your blood the dead don't eat and the winners eat the losers


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## divs4ever

while certain Western Industrialists and financiers get super fat 

 maybe the survivors of past conflicts are smarter this time


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## wayneL

Is not generally realised, and is the fault of Hollywood, is that the zombies of the zombie apocalypse are not the undead, not decomposing and stinking corpses miraculously walking around.

They are unthinking masses, the useful idiots incapable of critical thought, supporting the govt/media narrative.

Not zombies in the mythical sense, but zombies in the metaphorical sense. These are the sheeple who take the government's word in and would happily sleepwalk themselves into the gulags.

We have several here at ASF.


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## signalFollower

This was an 8th February recommendation by a Newsletter publication, so I hold Antilles Gold AAU, who actually reported their Financial Scoping study to the market today too, impressive numbers for a sub $30m mkt cap


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## Sean K

signalFollower said:


> This was an 8th February recommendation by a Newsletter publication, so I hold Antilles Gold AAU, who actually reported their Financial Scoping study to the market today too, impressive numbers for a sub $30m mkt cap
> 
> View attachment 138080




Lots of explorers went down today. AAU seems to have not benefitted much at all. On 8 Feb it peaked at 0.084c. Now, 0.083. Hope it goes up tomorrow for you.


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## signalFollower

Sean K said:


> Lots of explorers went down today. AAU seems to have not benefitted much at all. On 8 Feb it peaked at 0.084c. Now, 0.083. Hope it goes up tomorrow for you.
> 
> View attachment 138084



yeah but I know what those large tails on the candles were caused by, and also AAU is yet to become well known, I think over on that thread I posted a link to a youtube Interview with the Executive Chairman and also some of today's Financial Scoping Study key points.


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## Telamelo

Check out a near term gold producer Tulla Resources TUL



			https://tullaresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2022-02-01-Bell-Potter-Research-report.pdf


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## Sean K

signalFollower said:


> yeah but I know what those large tails on the candles were caused by, and also AAU is yet to become well known, I think over on that thread I posted a link to a youtube Interview with the Executive Chairman and also some of today's Financial Scoping Study key points.




Long tails down - good. Long tails up - bad. So it's an even race for the past 2 days. 

My general point about this particular situation is that gold and gold producers will most likely benefit from this short term explosion in POG, but gold explorers who are speculative, without defined resources and low cash, will probably follow the market.


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## divs4ever

wayneL said:


> Is not generally realised, and is the fault of Hollywood, is that the zombies of the zombie apocalypse are not the undead, not decomposing and stinking corpses miraculously walking around.
> 
> They are unthinking masses, the useful idiots incapable of critical thought, supporting the govt/media narrative.
> 
> Not zombies in the mythical sense, but zombies in the metaphorical sense. These are the sheeple who take the government's word in and would happily sleepwalk themselves into the gulags.
> 
> We have several here at ASF.



 non-thinking masses desperate to eat any meat they find ( alive or dead )


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## divs4ever

Sean K said:


> Long tails down - good. Long tails up - bad. So it's an even race for the past 2 days.
> 
> My general point about this particular situation is that gold and gold producers will most likely benefit from this short term explosion in POG, but gold explorers who are speculative, without defined resources and low cash, will probably follow the market.




 yes the explorers are a long way from producing  , if they go that route  or basically need a take-over  or JV with an experienced producer 

 producer or explorer depends on YOUR time frame   a winning explorer  is liable to return the bigger gains ( but that is for the extra risks taken  ) but you might wait years/decades for that result


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## signalFollower

Sean K said:


> Long tails down - good. Long tails up - bad. So it's an even race for the past 2 days.
> 
> My general point about this particular situation is that gold and gold producers will most likely benefit from this short term explosion in POG, but gold explorers who are speculative, without defined resources and low cash, will probably follow the market.





divs4ever said:


> yes the explorers are a long way from producing  , if they go that route  or basically need a take-over  or JV with an experienced producer
> 
> producer or explorer depends on YOUR time frame   a winning explorer  is liable to return the bigger gains ( but that is for the extra risks taken  ) but you might wait years/decades for that result



specifically AAU, Initial JORC resources defined, JV is with the government, Finance already lined up as are Offtake Partners, going to be an interesting 8 months with many updates and re-rates.   Not wanting to hijack this thread, but line in the sand at 8.3c AAU.  plus I have figured out the cause of those tails, and they're not representitive.


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