# USD:JPY - Market intervention



## reece55 (17 March 2008)

Looking at the USD:JPY, we are lower than we have been since 1999 (below 98 at the moment post the discount window cut).....

The Japanese, reliant on it's manufacturing and exports, have intervened at these kinds levels in the past. So the big question is will they do it again..... Whilst Govt comments from Japan appear to say that the USD:JPY is not an issue atm, surely it must be of great concern to them. So the question is - to intervene or not to intervene.... any comments???????


----------



## explod (17 March 2008)

reece55 said:


> Looking at the USD:JPY, we are lower than we have been since 1999 (below 98 at the moment post the discount window cut).....
> 
> The Japanese, reliant on it's manufacturing and exports, have intervened at these kinds levels in the past. So the big question is will they do it again..... Whilst Govt comments from Japan appear to say that the USD:JPY is not an issue atm, surely it must be of great concern to them. So the question is - to intervene or not to intervene.... any comments???????




Well all the great Guru's have been saying that it is different this time. (When we refer to 1930's etc.)  With the I/T age they can handle anything, so they say.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.   The great faith is being reflected in a jump start to the gold price this morning.


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2008)

reece55 said:


> Looking at the USD:JPY, we are lower than we have been since 1999 (below 98 at the moment post the discount window cut).....
> 
> The Japanese, reliant on it's manufacturing and exports, have intervened at these kinds levels in the past. So the big question is will they do it again..... Whilst Govt comments from Japan appear to say that the USD:JPY is not an issue atm, surely it must be of great concern to them. So the question is - to intervene or not to intervene.... any comments???????




IIRC those moves were quite spectacular. Something to keep in mind, thanks for remind us Reece.


----------



## Kauri (17 March 2008)

a lot of sabre-rattling from Japan about how undesirable the rates are... 
 but with their having a whale of a time blubbering about Chinas policy, and also hosting the G?? meeting this year which frowns on intervention.... I am backing in 95 before anything happens....  oooops.. reset my stops... almost there!!  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri (17 March 2008)

Methunks that rather than an individual CB taking action we will see another Plaza accord type action... but I still see yen at 95 as the possible trigger... at least that is what I am punting on... currently...   
 also the US rate cut was only an emergency cut... we still have the main FOMC to come.. and the expectations are ramping up from 50 already... some are looking for 100   (on top of the emergency cut, which was meant to make the BS bailout more palatable)..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman (17 March 2008)

no they wont intervene. they have in the past; but not this time. the USD is weakening and a cup of saki wont make any difference.


----------



## Andy_aus (17 March 2008)

Yeah i think the american markets have priced in another 0.5% rate cut already.


----------



## Stormin_Norman (17 March 2008)

Andy_aus said:


> Yeah i think the american markets have priced in another 0.5% rate cut already.




itll be at least that too. i fancy .75. some talk of 1.00.


----------



## Kauri (17 March 2008)

*DowJones.* This is the first time that MoF has come out with such strong wording. Up to now, Mr Nukaga and other officials have avoided pointing to specific levels. With USD/JPY down to the mid-96 level from highs in the 101- area on Friday, such talk was long in coming. Mr Nukaga adds that the *G7 agrees excessive FX moves are undesirable* (another Plaza approaching?) for global growth. He promises to continue to monitor the FX market closely.


----------



## Kauri (17 March 2008)

Japanese CabSec Machimura - Excessively Strong JPY Undesirable  . As USD/JPY breaks below 96.00.

 Good for a little rally from sub 96..


----------



## Kauri (17 March 2008)

and more sabre-rattling..

-  the EcoMin  Ota says she is monitoring FX even more closely now and how recent JPY strength affects the Japanese economy though she notes that the effect will not be immediate.    

 Have heard though that any possible intervention will only serve to steady the ship... not actually stop the trend... I think "*make the decline more orderly*" were the words used...   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------

