# ORG - Origin Energy



## RichKid (7 September 2005)

ORG seems to be going sideways more than up of late. It's ex div and close to breaking a recent uptrend line, may bounce off it. I like the diversified assets, especially it's eye on clean fuels.

Currently holding but may exit if it looks bad and re-enter later.

Anyone else have any views on why the stock is floundering of late when most energy stocks are going higher? I've heard mgmt normally give conservative forecasts but that could just be speculation, maybe a breakout setup would be the safest trade.


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## Aussiejeff (7 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> ORG seems to be going sideways more than up of late. It's ex div and close to breaking a recent uptrend line, may bounce off it. I like the diversified assets, especially it's eye on clean fuels.
> 
> Currently holding but may exit if it looks bad and re-enter later.
> 
> Anyone else have any views on why the stock is floundering of late when most energy stocks are going higher? I've heard mgmt normally give conservative forecasts but that could just be speculation, maybe a breakout setup would be the safest trade.




I'm also holding these (took the opportunity to top up today). Actually, if you look at the energy sector, the XEJ index and ORG are both into relatively oversold phases of their respective price/demand cycles. Time seems good to top up with ORG (or STO, BPT, AWE etc...) if you can or definitely hold those you have for the turnaround which should come pretty soon.... 

On the other hand, most utilities have had a great run of late and are starting to run out of steam (XUJ is becoming overbought). Just my thoughts of course.

Good trading,

AJ


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## GreatPig (7 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*

I'm also holding ORG in my investment portfolio. At the moment it's my worst performer (in that portfolio), being the only one I'm still losing money on 

However, I'm also hoping it will bounce back up off my long-term trend line, which it's sitting on right now.

Cheers,
GP


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## ramjet (7 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*

very simple ORG hedges some of its oil exposure, not all but some, secondly gas is not traded at spot here in Au as is in USA, so no leverage in terms of that either. I think mkt got  a little spooked with some of the rhetoirc from management a few weeks back, also a couple projects have been delayed, couple that with an incredible stock price performance over the last few years and you have a benign stock price, under seven it looks like good value.


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## RichKid (8 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*



			
				ramjet said:
			
		

> very simple ORG hedges some of its oil exposure, not all but some, secondly gas is not traded at spot here in Au as is in USA, so no leverage in terms of that either. I think mkt got  a little spooked with some of the rhetoirc from management a few weeks back, also a couple projects have been delayed, couple that with an incredible stock price performance over the last few years and you have a benign stock price, under seven it looks like good value.




Your comments sound very reasonable ramjet, makes it a bit clear for a change for ORG. 
Chartwise this has now broken support. I'll be watching to see how it settles, may creep over the support line again but looks like it's heading for $7 and sideways movement.


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## RichKid (9 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Chartwise this has now broken support. I'll be watching to see how it settles, may creep over the support line again but looks like it's heading for $7 and sideways movement.




Well, there's confirmation of the end of the trend imo. Unless it performs a mighty reversal next week to jump back over the trend line I'd say we'll have to wait for a new pattern. Next energy stock please....


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## ramjet (10 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*

I am no chartist but the chart does not look good from here, could also be people switching out of Origin to pay up for the AIH float or into Alinta itself, Alinta is the more sexy one out of two, not necessarily better or worse.


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## Aussiejeff (13 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*

Looks like $7.00 was the rebound base....

I was hoping to get in at that price for a short term gain but was committed to BPTO which shot up heaps....   

ORG UP 2.4% to $7.17  ;o)

I'm HOLDING my existing ORG for now. Should get back to $7.40 - 7.50 within a couple of weeks.

AJ


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## RichKid (13 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*



			
				Aussiejeff said:
			
		

> Looks like $7.00 was the rebound base....
> I was hoping to get in at that price for a short term gain but was committed to BPTO which shot up heaps....
> ORG UP 2.4% to $7.17  ;o)
> I'm HOLDING my existing ORG for now. Should get back to $7.40 - 7.50 within a couple of weeks.
> AJ




Hi AJ,
Yep a big jump, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw it, I was expecting some sort of retest but not that quick. Unfortunately for my bullish side it's still below the uptrend line (which is now resistance) and is generally trending down over the last few months. The psychological strength of $7 shouldn't be understimated. I note that volume was only moderate today but it closed strongly. My concern is that we've had quite a few big up days like today in the past, followed by gradul declines, see the dailies for the last few weeks and it'll be clear. A failed bullish wedge breakout last month too. The general market appears to be getting set for a rise so maybe ORG will ride the coat tails. No big news expected imo apart from ongoing drilling.


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## GreatPig (14 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Unfortunately for my bullish side it's still below the uptrend line



It's never been below my trend line (for at least the last 5 years), that recent drop being right down to it though.

Obviously it's just a matter of what points you decide make the best trend line.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (14 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> It's never been below my trend line (for at least the last 5 years), that recent drop being right down to it though.
> 
> Obviously it's just a matter of what points you decide make the best trend line.
> 
> ...




Good point, each one draws and sees it differently, and there's also what you call the technicians vs the fundamentalists battle as MarketWaves for example likes to put it. 

I'll try to post my chart with my lines and maybe you can do the same if you like so we can compare how we do things. These lines we draw are just guides I suppose, the charts only follow the theory some of the time.

Here it is, top bit is the weekly, bottom bit is the daily, I've cleaned up the lines in the second graph so you can see exactly where I drew it, it's just a rough guide I guess, prices don't really travel in a linear fashion. The far right top shows the failed wedge, images are a bit grainy but you get the idea, couldn't fit in the whole history as it was too long for an attachment.


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## RichKid (26 September 2005)

*Re: ORG Origin Energy*

Eat my shorts! Back above the trendline again, what a merry dance. Can't fuss though, I've followed the plan, can't help it if the stock doesn't cooperate.

Hey there 'Clint', still watching this sucker?


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## GreatPig (27 January 2006)

Looks like it might be starting another run up, perhaps into a wave 3.

Cheers,
GP


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## dutchie (27 January 2006)

GP - or perhaps a B ??


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## GreatPig (27 January 2006)

Dutchie,

I don't really see how it can be a 'B', but then it may not fit wave counts at all that well.

Here's my count anyway.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (27 January 2006)

dutchie said:
			
		

> GP - or perhaps a B ??




Could well be imo as corrective waves come in threes, especially as volume is weak atm. However, it has bounced off around the 50% retracement mark of wave 1 as suggested by Radge (retraces 50-70% of wave 1) I see the same general count as you guys- a wave one has ended and we've seen the end of wave 2 or are still in the midst of it; so if we see another minor top, that'll be B and we'll be looking for a wave C end at about the distance measured for wave A (the current 'wave 2'), which may take it below $7.

Wonder if you would care to comment Nick on how to distinguish between the start of a wave 3 and a continuing corrective pattern in wave 2? I've been watching the wave count on ORG since reading your book, was using traditional support/resistance analysis etc til then. It's good when it all coincides ('confluence').


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## Nick Radge (28 January 2006)

This is my count. Still bullish either way you look at it. It should make new highs with relative ease. GP's count looks correct on the weekly chart, where the recent low is a major wave-4 and this strength is the wave-5.






_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


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## RichKid (28 January 2006)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> This is my count. Still bullish either way you look at it. It should make new highs with relative ease. GP's count looks correct on the weekly chart, where the recent low is a major wave-4 and this strength is the wave-5.



Thanks Nick, back to your book for me to see how to get these counts right, seems very subjective with some of these charts.


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## dutchie (28 January 2006)

Yes - thanks Nick.

Is there a technical reason why you think this is a wave 4 and not a wave A??


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## GreatPig (8 February 2006)

Well, whatever wave count it was, it's turned into a bit of a fizzer :microwave

Out today at $6.97.

GP


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## Porper (9 February 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Well, whatever wave count it was, it's turned into a bit of a fizzer :microwave
> 
> Out today at $6.97.
> 
> GP




Sure is subjective, I have been following ORG closely waiting for wave 3 to start, which I believe it now will (retraced between 50-70% from wave 1).

Now am I brave enough to buy


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## Ann (12 February 2006)

...and my chart observations if I may?......


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## RichKid (12 February 2006)

Ann said:
			
		

> ...and my chart observations if I may?......



Nice chart Ann, the angle of this recent fall suggests it's not over yet, heading lower imho but I'm taking it day by day.


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## Ann (12 February 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Nice chart Ann, the angle of this recent fall suggests it's not over yet, heading lower imho but I'm taking it day by day.




Thanks Rich Kid,

I called this completely incorrectly in the past. I ignored the inicators but just saw a magnificent flag on a flagpole. It initially had a very good break up, I was all set to congratulate myself on a good chart reading and the jolly think went and dumped on me. I wasn't in but never the less, quite disappointing when it is so incorrect.

In future, I am going to give the indicators priority in an assessment if they are in such negative territory as they were with ORG.


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## RichKid (12 February 2006)

Ann said:
			
		

> Thanks Rich Kid,
> 
> I called this completely incorrectly in the past. I ignored the inicators but just saw a magnificent flag on a flagpole. It initially had a very good break up, I was all set to congratulate myself on a good chart reading and the jolly think went and dumped on me. I wasn't in but never the less, quite disappointing when it is so incorrect.
> 
> In future, I am going to give the indicators priority in an assessment if they are in such negative territory as they were with ORG.




Hi Ann,
I've made a mess of ORG too but the losses were as planned so it's ok.  Flags are supposed to be continuation patterns so if it's within a range I'd assume it's less reliable, also saw a few flags that had failed in ORG recently too so discounted it for that reason too. Good chart to learn from.


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## Porper (13 February 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Hi Ann,
> I've made a mess of ORG too but the losses were as planned so it's ok.  Flags are supposed to be continuation patterns so if it's within a range I'd assume it's less reliable, also saw a few flags that had failed in ORG recently too so discounted it for that reason too. Good chart to learn from.




Certainly isn't looking positive at the moment.I don't follow ORG fundamentally so who knows why it is falling.

Hindsight is great, but the buyers ran out of steam right before  the recent high followed by very heavy volume once the rot set in.

As a matter of interest E.Wave has not been disproven yet, wave 3 could easily start from here, although wouldn't bet my mortgage on it 

I wasn't brave enough to buy soley on the little knowledge I have on E.Wave but I wouldn't count ORG out yet.


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## RichKid (14 February 2006)

Porper said:
			
		

> As a matter of interest E.Wave has not been disproven yet, wave 3 could easily start from here, although wouldn't bet my mortgage on it
> 
> I wasn't brave enough to buy soley on the little knowledge I have on E.Wave but I wouldn't count ORG out yet.




Hi Porper,
Best EW in my amateurish view is: end of A-B-C correction to wave 1 and start of wave 3. I'm not game to trade it though til we have confirmation. Looks like we've got some buyers atm as there is recent high volume with prices going sideways over the last few days. If I had to bet I'd still be betting downwards to support.


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## imaginator (27 November 2006)

hey guys,
ORG has new news today. Whats happening, trading halt for so many days?

What do u think the opening price will be?


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## mit (28 November 2006)

It's halted so that Origin can do a share placement with the insto's to help pay for it's $1.2b purchase.

As for the price on open. I have no idea. It will depend on brokers recommendations. I think that it was a good purchase for Origin but the brokers may concentrate on the extra debt and mark it down. I have given up trying to predict market reactions.

Michael


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## mit (22 December 2006)

Origin's share price has certainly popped higher over the last full week. There has been rumours of AGL heading a group to take over ORG. With the current takeover frenzy I think that this is likely that AGL or ORG will be taken over, I can't see that one can take over the other without the ACCC getting upset as they share the lion's share in all gas/electricity market segments except possibly generation.

I'm more TA than FA but when the price stalls a bit I might take a small short here. Ofcourse this is my opinion and AGL might be writing the press release as I write this.

Michael


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## Sean K (22 December 2006)

mit said:
			
		

> Origin's share price has certainly popped higher over the last full week. There has been rumours of AGL heading a group to take over ORG. With the current takeover frenzy I think that this is likely that AGL or ORG will be taken over, I can't see that one can take over the other without the ACCC getting upset as they share the lion's share in all gas/electricity market segments except possibly generation.
> 
> I'm more TA than FA but when the price stalls a bit I might take a small short here. Ofcourse this is my opinion and AGL might be writing the press release as I write this.
> 
> Michael



Would have liked to have picked this up in Sep. Great run. This is all based on the TO rumours Michael? Would be hard to see these merging but we've seen some doozies lately: Patrick/Tol, AGL/Alinta, BHP/RIO (now there's a match!)


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## mit (22 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Would have liked to have picked this up in Sep. Great run. This is all based on the TO rumours Michael? Would be hard to see these merging but we've seen some doozies lately: Patrick/Tol, AGL/Alinta, BHP/RIO (now there's a match!)




Same here. Yes just based on what I could google. I think that ORG could be a takeover target but not by AGL. I'll broaden this to say that any large Australian company without too much debt and a reasonable PE will be the subject to at least takeover rumours.

For the next six months the best strategy could be to identify these companies and to buy into them during a pullback and sell when they surge.

MIT


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## Sean K (4 January 2007)

mit said:
			
		

> Same here. Yes just based on what I could google. I think that ORG could be a takeover target but not by AGL. I'll broaden this to say that any large Australian company without too much debt and a reasonable PE will be the subject to at least takeover rumours.
> 
> For the next six months the best strategy could be to identify these companies and to buy into them during a pullback and sell when they surge.
> 
> MIT



Well, looks like they will, but will the ACCC allow it?


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## REA (9 January 2007)

Origin shares reached $8.93 today up 35c, it was announced ACCC is looking into the takeover.   Meanwhile Origin directors today offered shareholders $5,000 worth of shares at the price of $7.10 per share.  It is hard to know which way this takeover is the best financially for shareholders.


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## mit (11 January 2007)

No sign of weakness in the uptrend. A few hurdles yet. The negotiation with the ACCC will be interesting around what they will need to give up to get the go ahead. Give up too much and you just create another large competitor.

It would be hard for Origin as well. It would be hard to give up a company you have built up and accept a demotion or redundancies. Although they wont have much choice unless they can come up with an argument as to why Origin would be better as a standalone company.

MIT


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## FAT ALBERT (10 February 2007)

REA said:
			
		

> Origin shares reached $8.93 today up 35c, it was announced ACCC is looking into the takeover.   Meanwhile Origin directors today offered shareholders $5,000 worth of shares at the price of $7.10 per share.  It is hard to know which way this takeover is the best financially for shareholders.




Hi all new boy here, could anyone tell me if there are reasons why I shouldn't buy these shares. It looks ok to me but I'm only guesssing...


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## REA (12 February 2007)

Hi Fat Albert

The offer of $7.10 shares that I wrote of were for shareholders as of the 8th January 2007 so that share purchase plan is no longer available.

The origin share price has been slipping from almost $10.00 over the past 3 weeks maybe shareholders cashing in existing shares to buy into the new shares, I dont know if that may continue in the short term.  There is also a lot of uncertainty re takeovers.


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## purple (19 June 2007)

ORG is picking up lately; could it be breaking out of its 5 month consolidation, what with all the current hubbub about green energy:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/investment/green-technology-gets-hotter/2007/06/11/1181414207082.html

here's the part ORG got mentioned ;

...Even with a carbon scheme on the horizon, green investing is not especially straightforward. The use of renewable energy around the world is booming but this doesn't necessarily translate into good investments or returns. The idea might be appealing - but how to play it?

The high-risk option is to try to pick winners from the mixed bag of renewable energy companies listed on the ASX.

Among the 50-plus renewable or sustainable energy companies there are some with a sound track record - but there are also plenty of others which are in very early stages of development, have unproven technologies or have no earnings or management history.

In other words, at the smaller end, the companies are high-risk investments and not suitable for more than a small part of any share portfolio. A safer bet is to look for the big energy companies that are investing heavily in renewable assets or technologies.

*Origin Energy*, for example, is an energy retailer, has interests in oil and gas exploration and production, power generation and distribution of gas. In recent years, it has been re-investing some of its huge cash flow into renewable energy, including solar and geothermal....

anyone still watching this one?


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## imaginator (23 June 2007)

ya ORG always on my watch list. That day when it went from 9.3 to 9.58, then it had a trading halt. After announcement it shot to 9.78. Now how did those fellas know there was going to be an announcement and pushed the price up? Insider trading?

send me a private message if you know anything about this stock


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## chops_a_must (25 June 2007)

Looking pretty good now. Not quite an outstanding breakout, but definitely a breakout. With electricity prices increasing up to 800%, the next financial report is likely to be a goodun.

A nice spread of energy assets, including enviro-tech (which will be helpful coming up to the federal election) and strength in the SP regardless of market conditions, makes its prospects rather bright.

Plus, four directors increasing their stakes quite substantially, gives one the confidence to back it in.

(Disclosure: now holding)

Cheers,
Chops.


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## imaginator (10 July 2007)

whats up with ORG this week?
Last week nearly 10, this week down all the way each day to 9.32.

Where do u think the support line will be?


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## chops_a_must (31 July 2007)

imaginator said:


> whats up with ORG this week?
> Last week nearly 10, this week down all the way each day to 9.32.
> 
> Where do u think the support line will be?



It really likes the Fib numbers. Would be a great one for the swing traders. Did well during the recent downturn. 

Great bounce off the 61.8 retracement level of the recent run. So it looks to be into W3 of this particular run.

And no talk here today about it, even though a blue chip does more than 5% on good volume, after a great series of announcements?:



> Origin Energy Ltd (“Origin”) today announced that following its annual review of reserves
> across its Exploration and Production (E&P) interests, Proved and Probable (2P) reserves have
> increased by 42% from 2,436 petajoules equivalent (PJe) to 3,471 PJe. This includes a net
> increase in Coal Seam Gas (CSG) reserves of 80% or 1,095 PJe to 2,470 PJe.
> ...




This is by far my favoured energy blue chip, understandably. And it looks to have broken out.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## imaginator (11 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> It really likes the Fib numbers. Would be a great one for the swing traders. Did well during the recent downturn.
> 
> Great bounce off the 61.8 retracement level of the recent run. So it looks to be into W3 of this particular run.
> 
> ...




What';s happened to ORG? Seemed like it is at the bottom? Why did the price go to 8.8 from about 10 dollarsssssss?
Any news?


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## nizar (5 May 2008)

Surely with the takeover price at $14.70, buying on market at levels sub-$14.00 is the ultimate in arbitrage and a risk free trade?

The company are still considering the takeover offer.

If they say the offer undervalues the company, then the share price will likely rally maybe to past $15.00 perhaps.

And if they recommend to accept then you make will definately make 5%.

Am I missing something here?


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## oldblue (6 May 2008)

Certainly looks tempting but I guess the market is pricing in a margin for the risks re approvals, financing etc. I would also expect the offer, when it comes, to be highly conditional.
Perhaps 5% is seen as appropriate in these market conditions.


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## WindriderAU (30 May 2008)

I have read that Origin will probably accept a revised bid of between $15 and $16 today. So hopefully will see a climb today.


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## nizar (24 June 2008)

Why would BG launch a takeover bid at a price that had already been rejected?

If the price had collapsed to $13-14 then fair enough -- but it didnt.

Am I missing something??


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## Dukey (24 June 2008)

nizar said:


> Why would BG launch a takeover bid at a price that had already been rejected?
> 
> If the price had collapsed to $13-14 then fair enough -- but it didnt.
> 
> Am I missing something??




I thought exactly the same thing... I reckon they know they'll have to raise the bar, so if they start at the previous offer - they might finalize a deal at a lower price than if they just jumped in above 16$ from the start....and then had to raise the offer from there....

dunno , just guessing at how they may be thinking.

But with ORG >$16 on the market, I don't think BG will get many takers... yet.
-dukey


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## asx256 (21 August 2008)

there are rumors which came out today around 2.30 in regard to ORG taking over all assets of BBP for about 0.70 per share. if true what effect do you guys think it will have on ORG share price, and future take over offer from BG's and others?

many thanks


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## Kauri (4 September 2008)

and I hear that Exxon Mobil* may* be running the ruler over BG...who are after Origin...
Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Flip (30 October 2008)

Origin completes company transforming transaction that leads to strengthened financial position:

http://www.originenergy.com.au/news/article/asxmedia-releases/971


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## sinner (18 November 2008)

Can anyone explain this? Why are people putting up sell offers of $13?

So glad I jumped out last week!


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## Flip (19 November 2008)

that is strange considering origin is doing a share buy back at the moment at (lowest price paid yesterday $16.93 and highest allowed price $18.13). 

If people want to sell at $13 when there is a guaranteed buyer then as a holder I'm curious as well. actually I hope the price remains low while there is a share buy back: the more shares written off, the higher the potential dividends in the long run.


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## basilio (19 November 2008)

The low sell offers before the market opens just means the lister wants to be sure his shares are first off the rank. They won't be sold at $13 rather the best price offered by the buyer.

This happens with all shares

Cheers


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## dan-o (10 February 2009)

anyone got any thoughts to share on why origin is down to the $13-14 level?
Im a holder and considering grabbing some more.


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## Redwings (27 February 2009)

The results they had weren't that bad but yet the SP is falling..

Has the SP fallen to the $13 levels is because they stopped with the on market share buy back? 

Also, they are really cash rich now (6.4billon) or is it not really a big deal as they got received an initial payment of US$5 billion from ConocoPhillips. 

Any thoughts as to where Mr King is going shopping? 

Thanks.


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## Mitsimonsta (4 May 2009)

Okay, I hold a few ORG, not many at all. Bought in at $13.65 earlier this year - currently +24.5% on this.

I see that it is hitting the 2008 average price level, there is money in the bank for CSG aquisitions. Seems like everything is going reasonably well.

Any chartists want to draw some random lines for me? Anyone want to share their strategy on this stock? Personal price targets?

Myself, I am considering a buy and averaging as the trend is pretty strong.


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## investorpaul (4 May 2009)

Mitsimonsta said:


> Okay, I hold a few ORG, not many at all. Bought in at $13.65 earlier this year - currently +24.5% on this.
> 
> I see that it is hitting the 2008 average price level, there is money in the bank for CSG aquisitions. Seems like everything is going reasonably well.
> 
> ...




I hold this stock in my long term portfolio, I bought it in the low to mid $4. Obviously the big thing going for the company is its strong balance sheet and cash position which should allow for strategic acquisitions and growth of various business units.

I would also be interested to see other chartists perspective on this stock.


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## Mitsimonsta (4 May 2009)

investorpaul said:


> I would also be interested to see other chartists perspective on this stock.




I have a feeling it might flatten somewhere between $17-$18, but I really want to know breakout points and possible support levels that will drive this long term.

Well done on your $4 buy on this Paul.... when was that? Mid-93? They were still Boral then were they not?

I definitely hold your 'looooooooooooong-term hold' view of this stock. Makes a great cornerstone of your portfolio IMO.


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## investorpaul (4 May 2009)

Mitsimonsta said:


> I have a feeling it might flatten somewhere between $17-$18, but I really want to know breakout points and possible support levels that will drive this long term.
> 
> Well done on your $4 buy on this Paul.... when was that? Mid-93?
> 
> I definitely hold your 'looooooooooooong-term hold' view of this stock. Makes a great cornerstone of your portfolio IMO.




It was late 2003 from memory.

By that stage I had purchased a number of stocks and was really nailing down my fundamental analysis for long term buys. I spent a heap of time researching a number of stocks and ORG came up trumps.

It has definitely been one of my better performers.


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## Hedders (12 May 2009)

Does anyone know why Origin went down today by more than 50 cents/share? It seems a bit volatile in the absence of any news either way.


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## Go Nuke (20 May 2009)

One for all the chartists...

Classic divergence shown here on the stochastics.

If I had money i could have played that..lol

Note the rising share price but the stochastics were making lower highs.


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## Real1ty (21 May 2009)

Geez there's been some sustained selling on this recently and is down from 17.20 in early May to 14.81 now.

Something is going on...and it doesn't smell good.


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## fureien (21 May 2009)

i bought in when it was last $15. i find it strange that its dropping without news. this stocks been sustained around the $16 mark so hopefully we will see a retrace


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## Nero64 (21 May 2009)

Hey Nuke good pickup. What's the settings on your stochastic indicator. 

Not sure why the SP has retreated. The capital raising with Santos didn't help but Origin has bucket loads of cash - 6+ Billion.


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## johannlo (21 May 2009)

It does get you suspicious doesn't it, CSG on the rise and so much cash in the bank, the more paranoid of us (like me) are going to wonder. 

On face value I'd jump on this if i had the $$ but going to sit on the sidelines for a bit more personally.


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## Real1ty (21 May 2009)

I should state first up that i don't hold ORG but watch with interest.

It looks like the selling started after 2 announcements made by ORG.

1: Habenero well incident http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090506/pdf/31hfxm43fy4jv9.pdf

2: The purchase of Wind Power http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090506/pdf/31hfyhmj6vx0n2.pdf

After reading the announcement it was surprising that there was no detail given as to price paid or anything of any real substance but upon some further digging, i came up with this. http://ffggippsland.blogspot.com/2009/05/origin-acquires-wind-power.html



> Developing all the projects may cost as much as $4.4 billion based on an Origin Energy estimate of typical wind ventures.





> Origin Energy would not comment on the purchase price, said Michelle Zahra, a spokeswoman in Sydney. Andrew Newbold, a director of Melbourne-based Wind Power, also wouldn't give the price. "Given they're all just development projects, I wouldn't have thought it's that substantial," RBS's Mabee said.




Maybe the market is not happy about the lack of detail disclosed, actually knows what was paid and believes it was too much, will cost too much too develop or probably none of these reasons.


----------



## Golf 16 (24 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Hey Nuke good pickup. What's the settings on your stochastic indicator.
> 
> Not sure why the SP has retreated. The capital raising with Santos didn't help but Origin has bucket loads of cash - 6+ Billion.




G'day Nero. On the chart I use Slow Stochastic is pretty bleak for Origin - in fact all of the indicators are pointing to a downhill run. The MACD (not shown) is equally poor. 
Funnily enough this stock received a recommendation from Intersuisse on Wednesday 20 May with a valuation of $22.45 per share!!
I do not hold.
Cheers
Golf 16


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## Mitsimonsta (2 June 2009)

Feels like ORG is SEVERELY underperforming sector and the market as a whole in the last month or so.

Can a chartist please plot ORG versus XEJ and (XAO or XJO) and post results please?

I cannot see the Habanero incident having any real material impact on SP considering the current investment in it. There's alot of money in the bank, no debt, and assets are being purchased - especially green power sources.

Anyone have any tidbits of info?


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## Real1ty (3 June 2009)

Mitsimonsta said:


> Feels like ORG is SEVERELY underperforming sector and the market as a whole in the last month or so.
> 
> Can a chartist please plot ORG versus XEJ and (XAO or XJO) and post results please?
> 
> ...






> Origin dismisses fears to LNG project
> 
> Date: 	26/5/2009
> Author: 	Paul Garvey
> ...




I entered this stock 2 days ago at 14.81 and am happy with this position, for now but will be keeping a close eye on the sp....


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## skc (3 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> I entered this stock 2 days ago at 14.81 and am happy with this position, for now but will be keeping a close eye on the sp....




Continuing our chat in the other thread - got in at $15.08 yesterady (so I didn't follow my plan to enter after confirmation at $15.5, but might pyrmid some more when that happens).


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## Real1ty (3 June 2009)

skc said:


> Continuing our chat in the other thread - got in at $15.08 yesterady (so I didn't follow my plan to enter after confirmation at $15.5, but might pyrmid some more when that happens).




Well done and as i mentioned in the other thread in this market you can be a little riskier with your entries imo.

Last 2 days have been stronger closes, where as prior to that it was very weak prior to closing. Not sure how much can be read into that or this stock atm but as always, time will tell.

Excellent trade on PTM btw, well done.


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## skc (3 June 2009)

Real1ty said:


> Well done and as i mentioned in the other thread in this market you can be a little riskier with your entries imo.
> 
> Last 2 days have been stronger closes, where as prior to that it was very weak prior to closing. Not sure how much can be read into that or this stock atm but as always, time will tell.
> 
> Excellent trade on PTM btw, well done.




I found PTM after reading their speeding ticket... always good for seeing which stock making unusual moves.


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## tracytop (9 June 2009)

what is ur guys thought on today's announcement. IMO, it is not that bad, profit downgrade. but still it is in positive region.


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## skc (9 June 2009)

skc said:


> Continuing our chat in the other thread - got in at $15.08 yesterady (so I didn't follow my plan to enter after confirmation at $15.5, but might pyrmid some more when that happens).




SL got hit this morning at $14.7 for a small loss. The profit downgrade wasn't in the charts! Next minor support just above $14... Will reassess when we get there I think.


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## Mitsimonsta (9 June 2009)

Hmmmmmm, starting to get close to my buy price on these.... 

Could be worthwhile to load up the truck if they drop down to previous levels (sub-$14) again. I believe the long-term prospects to be very, very good.

Pity I have other targets at the present time, mainly in REITs which I missed last month.


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## rickzheng1 (20 August 2009)

*ORG-origin energy*

why origin keeps losing its positions in the recent days? even though they reported a fairly good annual result. can anyone tell me?


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## Miner (21 August 2009)

*Re: ORG-origin energy*



rickzheng1 said:


> why origin keeps losing its positions in the recent days? even though they reported a fairly good annual result. can anyone tell me?




I beg the same question 

The contrary of it with CBA, Qantas - they posted lower profit and their shares went up.
Surprisingly in this forum this is the second posting on ORG in the month of Aug 09 and the previous posting before these two was in June 09. 

Could I draw a correlation between lack of interest in ORG both in ASX and ASF explains the share price fall ? 

Experts in ORG could you please share your thoughts ?


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## swm79 (21 August 2009)

i agree Miner... strange strange days... was expecting to see this one rally a bit to possibly $18, but its stayed flat.

Maybe because of Gorgon - attention is elswhere.

ORG tried to break that up by announcing they will be tripling the $50b, but STILL nothing.

im a long time watcher of ORG - if i had spare cash i'd be on this


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## The Captain (21 August 2009)

My bet is that Origin will fall and my target is around the $12.80 mark. When this happens it may bounce back to current levels. But mine is just an opinion and you should do tour own research.
Cheers and happy trading.


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## Sean K (21 August 2009)

The Captain said:


> My bet is that Origin will fall and my target is around the $12.80 mark. When this happens it may bounce back to current levels. But mine is just an opinion and you should do tour own research.
> Cheers and happy trading.



Captain, That EW count looks like another example of fitting the count to the chart and disregarding so many of the tops and bottoms. For a start, I would have put the 1 around 14.80. It seems EW may want to do this to ensure the W3 is thelongest which is really counterintitive to the overall shape of the chart. Can you fill in all the subdividing and explanation as to why we just hit a 4 and heading lower?


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## swm79 (21 August 2009)

jesus, dont know if i believe that... sharp looking drop.... i hope you're right - will certainly get in at $12.80. but difficult to hold out and wait for that price to come along unless we find some more bears in this forrest


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## The Captain (21 August 2009)

EW is not an exact science, the same chart as of end of May looked to be EW up predicting price of around $18. I bought in at $15.00 which was too early, I should have waited for trigger which never came and was lucky to get out at a small loss before the dive to around $13.50. 

Oscillator moving down now and macd cross are now both indications that the stock looks set to move down. 

Remember its just my opinion. The overall market is on the up so betting against it is on the fools side. As I said my target is $13.80 and I will then look at it again. It may not get there but I do not hold at the present and will look to buy at lower levels. 

Cheers and Happy Trading


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## Knobby22 (23 August 2011)

OK result, future growth pretty well assured.

Happy to reinvest my dividend to build up the holding long term.

Once the LNG is built and the cash flows in, a few years away, this company will be rerated. Nice safe hold in this environment. My purchase price was $14.20 so am slightly underwater.


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## Tysonboss1 (12 February 2012)

Knobby22 said:


> Once the LNG is built and the cash flows in, a few years away, this company will be rerated. Nice safe hold in this environment. My purchase price was $14.20 so am slightly underwater.




Does anybody know if the company has stated an estimated return on capital invested for their investmentment in the LNG infrastructure.


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## Knobby22 (12 February 2012)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Does anybody know if the company has stated an estimated return on capital invested for their investmentment in the LNG infrastructure.




Go to the Origin energy website. http://www.originenergy.com.au/55/Investor-presentations
Go to Australian Pacific LNG Final investment decision. The total project is to cost 20 bil. Structure of the partners is shown. (I think it has changed since then). 

The return is complex but once both trains are built they expect 7 billion per year! 
They expect the project to go 20 years. 1st gas train mid 2015, second train 2016.

Biggest threat is Bob Katters party or the Greens win parliament.


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## StevieY (9 November 2012)

Anyone got any thoughts on this? Especially with all the action today - 5.3% drop?


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## white_goodman (9 November 2012)

StevieY said:


> Anyone got any thoughts on this? Especially with all the action today - 5.3% drop?





Energy white paper...


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## George Washingto (11 November 2012)

Looks extremely cheap to me. APLNG is worth $3-4 per share at least.


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## So_Cynical (12 November 2012)

George Washingto said:


> Looks extremely cheap to me. APLNG is worth $3-4 per share at least.




Yet its about time to jump in id reckon.


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## tinhat (12 November 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Yet its about time to jump in id reckon.




Massive buying on Friday might see 10.20 established as the floor. Earnings are forecast to remain flat over the next two years with only a yield of 4.8% on Friday's close forecast over that period too. I'm not sure that even at the $10 mark it is worth buying into this stock now when earnings growth is not forecast until the second half of the decade.


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## So_Cynical (12 November 2012)

tinhat said:


> Massive buying on Friday might see 10.20 established as the floor. Earnings are forecast to remain flat over the next two years with only a yield of 4.8% on Friday's close forecast over that period too. I'm not sure that even at the $10 mark it is worth buying into this stock now when earnings growth is not forecast until the second half of the decade.




Yer but the growth will come, i mean the SP wont just stay at the current level...Gas and energy retailing, it has natural demand and inflation growth built in.


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## bellamy83 (13 February 2013)

Looks like ORG is at about $12.10 at present.... any thoughts? something to buy and hold onto perhaps...


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## princeplanet (25 July 2013)

*ORG - OMG!....*

Bought into this recently on strong recs from Comsec and Morningstar, but it has taken a beating since I bought it. I've tried to see what the recent announcements have been, but can't see a reason for any panic or shorting. Am I missing something?


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## Sharkman (26 July 2013)

*Re: ORG - OMG!....*

sorry i don't mean to sound like a pr#$k but let that be a lesson to not blindly trust broker recommendations. i did the same thing too when i was starting out in the early 2000s so you are not alone there. at the time all the brokers were saying buy up telstra, it's a strong outperform etc. so i did, and look where that went. i panicked and sold out, although in hindsight that turned out to be a decent move as after all these years it STILL has not gotten back to the level i sold out at (although it is getting close and i have to admit, it has been trending nicely for a while now).

i can laugh about it now, as the 6k or so that i lost to telstra would barely make a dent in my present day portfolio, but it really hurt back then and was a painful reminder that tuition fees at the school of hard knocks can sometimes be the most expensive of all. i now view broker recommendations with a healthy dose of skepticism and if i can't form my own opinion on something, i won't trade it, even if all the brokers are going nuts over it. count yourself lucky you didn't follow the broker recommendations on NCM when it was around $40, from memory i think the commsec consensus showed 5 strong buys and 3 holds!

NB. i am not implying that you should panic and sell out of ORG, as i did with TLS! i haven't been following ORG though so unfortunately don't have any real thoughts on the stock itself. but you can't ignore the possibility that there is no underlying reason - things go up, things go down. that's simply what the market does day to day. now if you got that recommendation from an analyst research note (as opposed to seeing on the consensus recommendation that most brokers had buy on it), and that research note spelt out the reasons why they recommended a buy, and you understood and agreed with those reasons, then you should be reasonably confident that they'll do well over the medium-long term so there should be no reason to panic over a few falls in the short term. that's just the market doing what the market does, it's just background noise in the context of a medium-long term investment.

different story if you're a short term trader like some of us here, and not an investor, then you do have to pay attention to the day to day movements (or even movements broken down into shorter intervals for the day traders), but in that case broker recommendations are probably not the best way to go about it as analyst research notes tend to be geared towards a timeframe of 6-12 months.


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## Sharkman (26 July 2013)

and please accept my apologies for being presumptuous if you did not blindly trust the broker recommendations and did in fact weigh things up before diving in. it just gives the impression that you did when you say you "bought into it on strong recs..."


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## skc (26 July 2013)

*Re: ORG - OMG!....*



princeplanet said:


> Bought into this recently on strong recs from Comsec and Morningstar, but it has taken a beating since I bought it. I've tried to see what the recent announcements have been, but can't see a reason for any panic or shorting. Am I missing something?




ORG had a very weak H1 report and the stock fell over 10% upon that release back in Feb. Recently I've glanced various analyst commentaries about downside risk to ORG's earnings due to their electricity business (sorry I can't be more specific as I only glanced at those comments) so perhaps holders are reducing exposure ahead of its reporting mid-late Aug.

With regards to following recommendations... 

Analysts have their views and assumptions regarding the future and they make a recommendation based on those assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not turn out to be facts so recommendations may turn out to be incorrect. 

The other thing about recommendations is that sometimes you find that the analyst price target trails the share price downwards. The company issues a profit downgrade, share price falls a lot, analyst puts in the new information and spits out a new target price that is much lower than the target price of the last recommendation, but is higher than the current share price to still warrant a buy call. They can do this downgrade after downgrade, and the share price may be a lot lower than the time of the initial buy recommendation - yet the recommendation has never changed!

Not saying that's happening with ORG - just my general perspective on how analysts work.


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## Zedd (26 July 2013)

*Re: ORG - OMG!....*



princeplanet said:


> Bought into this recently on strong recs from Comsec and Morningstar, but it has taken a beating since I bought it. I've tried to see what the recent announcements have been, but can't see a reason for any panic or shorting. Am I missing something?




Had to laugh at this. Sorry. See if you can find a history of recommendations on ORG. From memory they've been at BUY or ACCUMULATE for the last 4 years, possibly longer. To see an extreme example of analysts being wrong see if you can find the graph showing the consensus target price vs actual price for ENRON as it came crashing down. Spectacularly educational.

Fundamentally ORG have a massive market share on wholesale and retail electricity. They've also got some massive gas projects coming online in the next few years. Proximity to Asia = Awesome! A decent portion of the gas has been presold which has locked in some revenue. They also have one of the largest green energy porfolios in Aus and have a very decent voluntary takeup of their green energy product which funds their portfolio. Additionally, contrary to commentary, I always felt the carbon price would benefit ORG as they found ways to swing it to a positive.

Going against them, and momentum appears to be growing, is the US gas boom forcing prices down. Also the growing anger/resolve which may result in government intervention against gold-plating of infrastructure which has delivered massive profits to the companies who own and/or construct/install the plant/infrastructure. There's also the concern regarding decreasing demand driven through efficiencies and changes in behaviour. Not sure of the significance of each of these factors to their bottom line.

I bought into them around $14 then doubled up at $16 (with a SPP I think) so not particularly happy so far. I'm holding as a significant part of my portfolio and think they're a long term hold for growth and yield, but certainly not the shining star I thought they'd be.


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## Country Lad (26 July 2013)

*Re: ORG - OMG!....*



Zedd said:


> ..............the graph showing the consensus target price vs actual price for ENRON as it came crashing down. Spectacularly educational.




Yes, it is a lesson for the uninitiated.

http://www.stocktradingcards.com/enron_charts_vs_analysts.html

Cheers
Country Lad


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## coolcup (26 July 2013)

The market is concerned about a number of things with respect to ORG:

1. Near term earnings outlook as previously mentioned above
2. Prospect of a capital raising. S&P have recently downgraded ORG to BBB from BBB+. With lower earnings and the funding of APLNG continuing, the market is concerned ORG needs to raise close to $1bn despite management insisting they do not need to.


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## Smurf1976 (26 July 2013)

So far as electricity generation (as distinct from retailing) is concerned, most of the generation that Origin owns is gas-fired. They also have a significant kerosene-fired plant in Queensland, and a bit from wind.

In addition to generation owned outright, they have contracted rights to the output of a major black coal-fired plant in NSW which accounts for around half their total generating capacity. Also they have contracts concerning a pumped storage hydro scheme, also in NSW.

An issue is that as the LNG plants in Qld come online, East Coast (Qld, NSW, ACT, Vic, Tas, SA) gas prices are expected to soar to export parity levels. That's good news for gas producers (including Origin) but to some extent profits from gas will come at the expense of losing profits from power generation. Even under the highest likely carbon price scenarios, gas-fired generation will no longer be competitive with coal.

Now, Origin isn't "paying" that price as such, since they produce gas as well as use it in power stations, but the power stations do effectively compete against LNG exports for the same gas. You can't burn it twice.

At present, there is reasonably heavy use of gas-fired (and hydro) generation whilst the carbon price is fixed at a higher level than is expected under an ETS (or if a Coalition government abolishes it altogether). But it's pretty well known in the industry that, no matter who wins the next election, we'll soon see a slump in hydro output (as the lakes dry up due to current over production) and gas-fired generation (as gas prices rise) and that that most of this will be offset by an increase in production from coal. All this falls into place over a fairly short timeframe in 2014.

I haven't worked out exactly what it means to Origin's bottom line, but the power stations they own will certainly be far less profitable in future than they are now. Turning cheap gas into expensive electricity today versus using expensive gas to produce electricity that must compete with cheaper coal (lower carbon price) tomorrow. That's a pretty big hit to the profitability of gas-fired power generation.

They also have that kero burning plant too. The AUD is dropping and the oil price is rising which means the fuel cost there will be going up too. Technically the plant could be converted to run on gas, but first they need a sufficient gas source (ie build a pipeline) and of course that only makes sense if the gas itself is cheap enough.

Complicating all this will be what contracts they have in place since I'm referring to market prices expected to prevail going forward for electricity (getting cheaper), gas (more expensive), carbon (cheaper) and oil (more expensive). There will be an impact of higher wholesale gas prices on their gas retailing business too, which also ends up competing against exports (LNG) for the same gas resource.

I would also not rule out the possibility that government steps in to regulate gas (plausible) or electricity (less likely) prices in the domestic market given the likely magnitude of price rises expected in the near future and the impact this will have on households, business, manufacturing etc. Needless to say, such a move won't boost the profits of the likes of Origin if it were to happen.

It's complex to work out what it all means to the bottom line but certainly the fundamentals are likely to shift in the energy business, with the emergence of Qld LNG exports being the primary driver.


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## Zedd (26 July 2013)

I don't quite follow your logic Smurf that as the projects come online and the domestic supply of gas increases that the price will go up as a result? Or were you saying that *even* when these lines come online the expected global price for gas is still projected to rise above current levels, making gas-fired power more expensive then it is now.


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## Smurf1976 (26 July 2013)

Zedd said:


> I don't quite follow your logic Smurf that as the projects come online and the domestic supply of gas increases that the price will go up as a result? Or were you saying that *even* when these lines come online the expected global price for gas is still projected to rise above current levels, making gas-fired power more expensive then it is now.



In short, Australian gas prices (eastern states) are a long way below international prices. Not a bit below but a lot lower.

So basically the LNG plants can afford to buy up everything they can get and this is pretty much what they are doing. We'll only have Australian gas prices at much below export parity if the gas producers ramp up production sufficiently to hold the price down. And if that were to happen, then quite likely we'll see another LNG plant built to take advantage of this cheap gas supply.

Looking at the politics of it all (especially NSW) and the general rumblings coming from manufacturing industry and even the big miners, the expectation is certainly for higher prices going forward. There have been various reports that buyers either can't get a long term gas contract at all, or at least that they can't get one at anything close to current prices.

It's like any commodity. Producers will only sell it locally at less than they can get by exporting it (less the cost of liquefaction and shipping which are admittedly quite high in the case of LNG) if they don't have a physical means of exporting. Historically that has been the case, there was no way to get gas from the eastern states to overseas, but now that is changing.

It's perhaps worth noting that WA gas prices have been very much higher than prices in the other states in recent years for precisely this reason. Now prices in the eastern states are set to rise also. Good news for gas producers but not good for those who consume it, power generation included.

In Origin's case it's probably still a net profit overall, but to some extent you can't just "add everything up and get the total" since it won't work that way going forward, at least not unless producers choose to glut the gas market and hold prices down that way (possible but I doubt it).


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## Boggo (26 July 2013)

Zedd said:


> I don't quite follow your logic Smurf that as the projects come online and the domestic supply of gas increases that the price will go up as a result? Or were you saying that *even* when these lines come online the expected global price for gas is still projected to rise above current levels, making gas-fired power more expensive then it is now.




There was a discussion about this on ABC radio last week I think it was.

Apparently now that these projects have come online it means greater production which in turn means more money can be invested in plants that can produce sustainable export volumes to markets that are willing to pay big $$.

The downside now is that the local user is going to have to pay export prices.

No different that ordering fish in a restaurant in Port Lincoln, what you get has come from Vietnam or Thailand unless you are willing to pay upmarket Sydney or Tokyo restaurant prices as this is where the local produce is exported to.


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## Zedd (26 July 2013)

Got it. Cheers.


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## princeplanet (26 July 2013)

*Re: ORG - OMG!....*



Country Lad said:


> Yes, it is a lesson for the uninitiated.
> 
> http://www.stocktradingcards.com/enron_charts_vs_analysts.html
> 
> ...




Hmmm, so when you guys say DYOR, you expect me to do more or better research than the big brokers? That can't be easy! Don't have time to do this full time! Should I just give all my hard earned over to an LIC or fund manager maybe? Had an FA once, he was unreliable as well....


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## Zedd (27 July 2013)

*Re: ORG - OMG!....*



princeplanet said:


> Hmmm, so when you guys say DYOR, you expect me to do more or better research than the big brokers? That can't be easy! Don't have time to do this full time! Should I just give all my hard earned over to an LIC or fund manager maybe? Had an FA once, he was unreliable as well....




Not at all mate. Just be aware that the recommendations from analysts are guidelines only and you should have a good reason to invest besides just seeing a buy rec on a website. My point with ENRON was that even consensus isn't always correct. Investing/trading yourself though is in my mind making the statement that you feel with your limited time can do better then guys who are doing it full-time for a living. If that's the case what's your edge? What makes you think you can outdo the professionals minus the fees? See how you go, track your performance and if you're outdoing the index then that's great. If you're outdoing managed funds minus fees that's even better. If not, then maybe a LIC isn't such a bad idea. For me it's still a hobby, although my performance is such that once I build capital maybe I can make it a full-time.


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## princeplanet (21 October 2013)

well, I stayed with it, despite the nay saying and made a handsome profit. Seeing a bit of a dip at present and was gonna ask if I should get out, but then remembered that no one here seems to know or care about this stock???


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## Smurf1976 (21 October 2013)

I hold, have done for years.

So long as the underlying business continues to face diminishing competition at one end, and booming demand for its' product (LNG) at the other it remains a goer in my opinion. 

But then I invest primarily based on fundamentals and do consider this stock to be riskier than some, largely on account of the modest dividend yield (ie making a profit depends on the share price going up).


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## Ves (21 October 2013)

Smurf,  I have read a few news articles about the Russian plans to go into exporting LNG in a big way.   Not sure if you know anything about this,  or perhaps had something to share on it's potential impact to ORG if it comes to fruition?  I'm not sure on the dynamics of ORG's future plans with it's LNG,  but this would only effect their export operations, rather than their domestic operations, providing that their cost of extraction / production etc is lower than Russia's  (plus whatever it costs to transport / ship it to Australia)?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/07/asia-russa-lng-idUSL6N0HX1TQ20131007


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## Echidna50 (3 June 2014)

Origin goes west in $864m gas play
MATT CHAMBERS THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 03, 2014 12:00AM

ORIGIN Energy is set to make an $US800 million ($864m) entry intro Western Australia’s offshore Browse Basin, agreeing to buy exploration ground owned by Karoon Gas in a marked shift of Origin’s LNG export growth plans away from Queensland’s coal-seam gas fields.


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## pixel (2 February 2015)

ORG appeared on today's Trinity Scan that I run daily over the ASX Market.
See "Pixel's Picks": https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29112 

On a 9-month Daily chart, with Trinity Envelopes removed, I notice that the latest and steepest trendline has meanwhile been broken and an big overhead gap may well become an attractor.
For now, I'll wait if today's vwap - currently $11.02 - is about to hold. That, and some more volume tomorrow, would give me a buy signal for an early entry.


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## jbocker (6 February 2015)

Not much talk about this stock, but I think it is pretty good buy in recent times. It is diversified, top 20 ASX, the future LNG exports, I think they are a long way down the development path, probably will be online when the oil price recovers in the next year or so. I am assuming that oil price will crawl back over time.
Next company report will be interesting - towards end of month.


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## Knobby22 (10 February 2015)

jbocker said:


> Not much talk about this stock, but I think it is pretty good buy in recent times. It is diversified, top 20 ASX, the future LNG exports, I think they are a long way down the development path, probably will be online when the oil price recovers in the next year or so. I am assuming that oil price will crawl back over time.
> Next company report will be interesting - towards end of month.




I'm with you on that.


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## Knobby22 (13 February 2015)

Price rising in anticipation.
This company is definitely undervalued. Once the new income stream from gas kicks in the PE ratio will look quite low.


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## jbocker (15 February 2015)

First Gas has arrived. Commissioning of the plant now takes place over the next few months. They expect LNG mid year. Not sure when they will be the first shipping, but that will mark a huge milestone in the development and the for the company.


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## So_Cynical (29 September 2015)

Down another 10% today, quite incredible when the mighty fall.

Is the 60+% fall in SP realistic? overdone and way to pessimistic or not pessimistic enough?, notice that the very sharp (recent) price decline on the 2 year chart simply cannot be maintained at that angle..something has to give.
`


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## Wysiwyg (29 September 2015)

The last 2 months shows the largest volume since year 2008. I think this is stock absorption and the low will coincide with the end of this general market downer. Guess price low at an old low around $5.96.


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## skc (30 September 2015)

The news is out. 4-for-7 rights issues @ $4 

If you tell anyone at the beginning of the year, that you could buy ORG shares @ $4 you'd be considered somewhere between silly and insane. Yet here we are... $4.

Dividends to be cut to 20c per year from 50c previously. 

Why on earth did they not raise capital at the half year report? The share price was ~$9-10 at the time. They should have suspended the dividend and raise at say $7 (30% discount). $2.5B would have cost them half the dilution.

Is the balance sheet fully repaired after this? Remember someone like Glencore who didn't raise enough. Market initially liked it then suddenly marked it down by 30% on an analysis report. Other than that, ORG on EV/EBITDA basis seems pretty cheap.

P.S. I am slightly amazed that all this debt-induced panic in mining companies hasn't hit FMG harder. I really thought it'd be down 20% yesterday...


----------



## DB008 (30 September 2015)

Hello Tesla and Solar Power....bye bye energy stocks....


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## skc (30 September 2015)

DB008 said:


> Hello Tesla and Solar Power....bye bye energy stocks....




Very interesting that you brought up Tesla and Solar Power. The uptake of these are in fact be driven by higher oil prices.... there is less incentive to switch when the oil price is low (all else being equal).


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## coolcup (30 September 2015)

skc said:


> Why on earth did they not raise capital at the half year report? The share price was ~$9-10 at the time. They should have suspended the dividend and raise at say $7 (30% discount). $2.5B would have cost them half the dilution.




Totally agree with this. They have been cum issue for about 2 years now (since the various LNG projects started suffering cost blow outs across the sector). For all that the executive team are considered top notch, this stinks of poor management sticking their heads in the sand.

Meanwhile, fantastic outcome for Macquarie. Sole underwriter with a fee take of ~$45m on the deal.


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## ktech (29 October 2015)

Does anyone know when I should expect to see the entitlements taken up to show up?


----------



## Craton (3 November 2015)

Have a squiz here: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151007/pdf/431wnpz5mn3qrv.pdf page six.


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## ktech (3 November 2015)

Had a lookee but no see!! I have emailed Boardroom to find out what has happened to my shares so should know in a few days.


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## Craton (4 November 2015)

What's not to see?
As per the link: Issue of New Shares under Retail Entitlement Offer is today, 4th Nov. Normal settlement trading of said shares starts tomorrow.


----------



## ktech (4 November 2015)

Thanks. page numbering on  pdf  doesn't match the form Duh!


----------



## Craton (4 November 2015)

You're welcome ktech.


----------



## Wysiwyg (18 May 2016)

See Origin cracked resistance yesty. $5.50 ish was an out price for the short termers but rising energy prices has encouraged higher ORG prices. Looks too juicy to be true.


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## Redbeard (6 June 2018)

is this right , shares are at 9.64 today but origin has NOT paid a dividend in two years? 
Thats what my OLbrokers info is telling me


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## greggles (20 June 2018)

Origin Energy struggling to break through $10. A retrace is likely if it continues to fail. Support at $9.25.


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## frugal.rock (25 November 2020)

Endured a drawdown after purchasing at 4.79 before it bottomed. 
It would seem the bottom is in for now though... full steam ahead in upward trend. Not bad for a big boat.


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## Trav. (13 January 2021)

I entered ORG again after a losing trade last month and I think that with the energy going strong ($XEJ +4.2% today) I might be able to make a few bucks this time round.

up 2.99% today

Holding


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## barney (13 January 2021)

The POO has gone ballistic since early November. Any thoughts on why ORG has been lagging the likes of Woodside and Beach @trav ?

Oil is on the move again as we speak tonight. Hopefully this one plays ball for you this time.


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## Trav. (13 January 2021)

barney said:


> Any thoughts on why ORG has been lagging the likes of Woodside and Beach @trav ?



   mate, I have no idea on this one. I am just a simple man and definitely not a big picture guy.

"Chart says Buy" is about my limit of expertise and I often get that wrong as well.


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## Smurf1976 (13 January 2021)

barney said:


> Any thoughts on why ORG has been lagging the likes of Woodside and Beach



Origin is a more complex business:

Produces natural gas.

Produces LNG from its own gas or gas purchased from others.

Operates the largest power station of any kind in Australia, that being Eraring in NSW (coal).

Operates a number of smaller gas-fired power stations in various states and also operates the Shoalhaven pumped hydro scheme in NSW. Also owns or has under contract wind and solar generation.

Is a solar sales company that sells solar power systems to households. The physical electrical work on site is sub-contracted however.

Is a major retailer of natural gas and electricity, noting that part of what they sell is sourced from others including those with rival retail businesses.

To many Australians is a company primarily associated with LPG and in some regions is effectively a monopoly supplier in practice. 

A rise in oil prices is potentially good for their LNG export business but for the rest it's neutral and in some cases negative.


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## Smurf1976 (13 January 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Operates the largest power station of any kind in Australia, that being Eraring in NSW (coal).
> 
> Operates a number of smaller gas-fired power stations in various states and also operates the Shoalhaven pumped hydro scheme in NSW. Also owns or has under contract wind and solar generation.



Forgot to include that Origin also owns the Mt Stuart power station in Queensland, capacity 423 MW, the fuel for which is kerosene.


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## qldfrog (13 January 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Forgot to include that Origin also owns the Mt Stuart power station in Queensland, capacity 423 MW, the fuel for which is kerosene.



kerosene...obviously can be used as fuel but for kerosene to be the std fuel..amazing. Thanks Smurf


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## Dona Ferentes (8 February 2021)

.... investors took a stick to Origin’s shares last Thursday, adding to the losses over the past year.

The shares fell 6.8% to $4.64 but were down more than 7% at one stage.

Up to Thursday the shares were down 37% in the year to this week and Thursday’s slide took that to 44% as investors continue to sour on its LNG businesses and worry about falling electricity prices and the impact of that on Origin’s finances.

Despite the absence of any news of asset write downs, the impact of falling electricity prices was there for all to see.

Origin told the ASX that it now expects 2020-21 electricity gross profit to be down $250–290 million year-over-year. The previous guidance predicted a $170–220 million fall.

The company blamed this loss to lower wholesale prices, payment of a non-recoverable $40 million increase in network costs and the impact of mild summer conditions.

The company also said its natural gas gross profit is also expected to be down $200–250 million year-over-year. This has been raised from the original $100–150 million estimate.

Origin advised that the decline of the natural gas gross profit was influenced by lower sales and the roll off of legacy sales contracts that totalled $70 million.

The company believes that improved LPG and community energy services will partially offset electricity and gas gross profit losses.

In addition to the lowered guidance, the company said the current business environment was still being impacted by COVID disruptions to demand and weather patterns brought by La Niña.

These presently challenging operating conditions of energy markets to persist inti 2021-22.

Origin downgraded its underlying earnings (including electricity and gas) to the $1–1.14 billion range. Its initial guidance estimated between $1.15–1.3 billion.


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## tonyparis (8 February 2021)

Anyone seeing long term value here?
Closed today at $4.37


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## Clansman (8 February 2021)

tonyparis said:


> Anyone seeing long term value here?
> Closed today at $4.37




Unless you have the same investment horizon as these guys, it would be advisable to look elsewhere.


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## sptrawler (19 August 2021)

Things don't appear to be improving, investing in the energy market in the current climate isn't for the faint hearted IMO.








						Origin cuts back coal power output as green shift slashes prices
					

The COVID-19 pandemic and rapid rise of renewable energy hammered prices across the business of one of Australia’s top power and gas suppliers.




					www.theage.com.au
				




Origin Energy, one of Australia’s top power and gas suppliers, has posted a $2.29 billion full-year loss as the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid rise of renewable energy hammered prices across the business.

After stripping out one-off items, Origin posted underlying earnings of $318, down 69 per cent from a year ago, but ahead of consensus forecasts for $275.6 million.
Following a year of significant upheaval across the energy sector, Origin this month flagged heavy write-downs due to sharply lower electricity prices and rising costs to fuel its fleet of power stations taking a severe toll. It warned investors that the pain would continue to be felt into 2022.
“Operating conditions were challenging this year due to low prices and the impacts of COVID-19 across our key commodities of electricity, natural gas and oil,” Origin chief executive Frank Calabria said on Thursday.

“Energy Markets headwinds are expected to persist into financial year 2022, though this should be largely offset by the strong performance of our integrated gas business.”
The company declared an unfranked final dividend of 7.5¢ a share, payable to shareholders of record on 8 September.
Loading
Origin and other top power utilities have been facing enormous pressure as the continued flood of cheap power from large-scale wind and solar farms and rooftop solar panels sends daytime wholesale power prices plunging to levels where coal and gas-fired generators are increasingly unable to compete. This year, EnergyAustralia brought forward the closure of Victoria’s Yallourn facility to 2028, four years ahead of schedule.
“Our immediate focus is on capital discipline and cost management to continue to build balance sheet resilience, with a rebound in energy markets earnings expected in financial year 2023,” Mr Calabria said.


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## Dona Ferentes (21 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Things don't appear to be improving, investing in the energy market in the current climate isn't for the faint hearted...



As expected from their trading update at the end of July, *Origin Energy* has revealed a multi-billion-dollar loss after taking huge write downs in the year to June 30.

What was once a straight forward model, and which worked so well when spun out of Boral all those years ago, has come unstuck. 



> "_The Energy Markets headwinds are expected to persist into financial year 2022, though this should be largely offset by the strong performance of our integrated gas business. _.........w_ith a rebound in energy markets earnings expected in financial year 2023,” _Mr Calabria said.


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## Smurf1976 (22 August 2021)

Just for background info, comparing Origin with major listed rival AGL:

On the electricity side Origin is net short, they retail more than they generate. That is, much of the electricity they sell is physically generated by others and supplied to Origin either under contract or via the spot market.

In contrast AGL is net long generation. They generate more than they retail and sell the rest either under contract or via the spot market.

Origin operates one coal-fired power station, capacity 2880 MW, and purchases all the coal used from unrelated coal mining companies. 

AGL operates three coal-fired plants, total capacity 6530 MW, and supplies a 2210 MW of that with coal from its own wholly owned mine next to the power station. AGL also supplies from this mine 100% of the coal used by another company, Alinta, in a 1170 MW power station located close by.

Origin has a major business producing natural gas and in the production and export of LNG. In contrast raw gas production is a minor sideline business for AGL, the company being primarily a consumer (for gas-fired generation) and retailer of gas produced by others.

Origin has a substantial position in the marketing and physical distribution of LPG within Australia whereas AGL has no major involvement in this activity.

AGL operates a number of conventional hydro facilities, being the third largest hydro operator in terms of annual output. In contrast Origin has a small pumped storage facility in NSW and no major involvement with conventional (non-pumped) hydro.

AGL has had a highly public dispute with the Australian Government and various other disputes in recent times, notably the Victorian government not approving AGL's proposed LNG import terminal in that state. In contrast Origin has been noticeably less visible in terms of political conflict.

AGL is closing 420 MW of coal-fired plant in 2022 and a further 1260 MW in 2023. All of this is located in NSW and uses coal supplied by others.

Origin is closing all coal-fired plant during the 2030-32 period.

AGL is closing or mothballing 680 MW of gas-fired plant in SA between 2020 and late 2022. This could plausibly be returned to service at a future time.

Origin is closing 180 MW of gas-fired plant in SA on the 31st December 2023. This is a permanent closure.

Both companies have large battery projects based at or near existing power station sites.

So the two companies, whilst seemingly similar, are actually quite different.

I've left out mention of others since they're either not ASX listed (for example Energy Australia or the various government owned entities) or are substantially smaller in scale and/or narrower in scope.

Disclosure: I do not hold shares in Origin or AGL.


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## divs4ever (22 August 2021)

ASTAUSNET SERVICES LTD ORDINARY
Change







Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date31/03/2021Final4.750AUD40.0020/05/202121/05/202124/06/202130/09/2020Interim4.750AUD40.0016/11/202017/11/202017/12/202031/03/2020Final5.100AUD50.0020/05/202021/05/202025/06/202030/09/2019Interim5.100AUD50.0018/11/201919/11/201919/12/201931/03/2019Final4.860AUD45.0021/05/201922/05/201927/06/201930/09/2018Interim4.860AUD40.0019/11/201820/11/201820/12/201831/03/2018Final4.620AUD0.0022/05/201823/05/201828/06/201830/09/2017Interim4.630AUD0.0020/11/201721/11/201721/12/201731/03/2017Final4.400AUD0.0024/05/201725/05/201727/06/201731/03/2017Special1.000AUD0.0024/05/201725/05/201727/06/201730/09/2016Interim4.400AUD50.0024/11/201625/11/201622/12/2016

 closed @ $1.97 a share 


SKISPARK INFRASTRUCTURE STAPLED US PROHIBIT.
Change







Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date30/06/2021Interim6.250AUD0.0007/07/202108/07/202115/09/202131/12/2020Final6.500AUD0.0030/12/202031/12/202015/03/202130/06/2020Interim7.000AUD0.0003/09/202004/09/202015/09/202031/12/2019Final7.500AUD0.0003/03/202004/03/202013/03/202030/06/2019Interim7.500AUD0.0003/09/201904/09/201913/09/201931/12/2018Final8.000AUD0.0005/03/201906/03/201915/03/201930/06/2018Interim8.000AUD0.0004/09/201805/09/201814/09/201831/12/2017Final7.625AUD0.0005/03/201806/03/201815/03/201830/06/2017Interim7.625AUD0.0005/09/201706/09/201715/09/201731/12/2016Final7.250AUD0.0003/03/201706/03/201715/03/2017

 closed @ $2.77 a share

 i hold both AST and SKI , and have previously worked rather hard for a graceful exit of ORG


 DYOR

if the metrics in Oz don't impress and you are not bothered by illiquid stocks  NZ has several  companies , CEN ( a divestment of ORG ) , MEZ , MCY , and GNE  the last three have the NZ government as a significant share-holder 

 (  i hold the 4 NZ power companies mentioned )

these utility companies highlight  the risk in geo-politics and climate policies


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## JohnDe (31 January 2022)

Good signs ahead.



> Origin CEO Frank Calabria said, “Australia Pacific LNG has continued its strong performance and was able to benefit from the substantial increase in oil and spot LNG prices and favourable currency movements, helping to drive a large increase in revenue compared to the prior year.
> 
> “Early completion of planned maintenance boosted production and sales in the December quarter, and also allowed Australia Pacific LNG to capitalise on a buoyant spot LNG market, selling three JKM-linked spot cargoes with a further five sold for delivery in the coming months.
> 
> ...






			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02480562-59BVLBF6R14GPN37EGUJG1VRG9/pdf?access_token=00077D3bf6kAbLNyccbpo2aoaHdC


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## So_Cynical (10 February 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> Down another 10% today, quite incredible when the mighty fall.
> 
> Is the 60+% fall in SP realistic? overdone and way to pessimistic or not pessimistic enough?, notice that the very sharp (recent) price decline on the 2 year chart simply cannot be maintained at that angle.. something has to give.
> `



6 and a half years later the SP is back to 6 dollars 15 or so, up about 50% in just 6 months, some talk of a capital return.


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## JohnDe (17 February 2022)

No slowing down.



> *Origin proposes to accelerate exit from coal-fired generation*
> 
> Origin Energy Limited (Origin) is proposing to accelerate its exit from coal-fired power generation, delivering on a core aspect of the company’s strategy as it aims to lead Australia’s energy transition towards net zero emissions.
> 
> ...


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## Craton (17 February 2022)

As per @JohnDe's post above:



> Eraring is a 2880 MW black coal plant on the shores of Lake Macquarie.




First thing that came to mind was ScoMo's image holding a lump of coal in his hand. A reality world's apart...

On topic.
Albeit a tad slow, reactive not proactive, good to note that ORG is finally taking action. I was really surprised when they sold off that solar window technology which, from memory, was cutting edge and at the time, returning some of the highest PV conversion rates.
This was one of the main reasons I added ORG to my holdings, thinking ORG was on the proactive path to cleaner energy.
The old shoulda in that I didn't unload at the 2018 highs like I did with STO.

I would expect ORG can reverse those eye watering losses and turn their big ship around. Apparently the market seems to think so too.


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## Smurf1976 (17 February 2022)

Craton said:


> I would expect ORG can reverse those eye watering losses and turn their big ship around.



As a brief comment:

Biggest problem with Eraring is the price of coal has gone through the roof to the point that it, and indeed all black coal-fired power stations, are uneconomic. Even if the asset itself is written off completely the fuel's simply too expensive.

Bearing in mind the declining gas reserves and production in Australia as noted recently in an ACCC report, and the urgency of getting new supply online, a key for Origin will be what happens with the company's prospects in the Beetaloo Basin (NT). The company is somewhat better positioned than others there who'll be more exposed by having to import the stuff via one of the 5 proposed LNG import terminals (2 each in NSW and Vic, one in SA though it's unlikely all would be built in practice).


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## JohnDe (1 June 2022)

Down $0.995 (14.53%) on the announcement - *Update on operating conditions and guidance*



> Volatility hits Origin earnings, guidance​                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Origin Energy slashes energy markets earnings forecast for 2022 by a quarter and withdraws earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year amid huge volatility in electricity markets and coal supply problems at its Eraring plant in NSW.
> 
> The power operator says energy markets underlying earnings will fall by 26 per cent at the mid-range to $310m-$460m from the original guidance of $450m-$600m.
> 
> ...


----------



## divs4ever (1 June 2022)

Update on operating conditions and guidance
Origin Energy Limited (Origin) provides the following update on operating conditions and
earnings guidance.
There is currently extreme volatility across commodity markets, driven by a combination of
global energy supply and security concerns, exacerbated by the impact of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, with subsequent unprecedented increases in international energy prices
including coal, gas and oil. Domestically, coal plant outages and high coal and gas prices
have contributed to a steep escalation in wholesale electricity prices.
The following guidance is based on current market conditions and the regulatory
environment. Ongoing volatility in market conditions is likely and may adversely impact
operations.
FY2022
For the 2022 financial year, Origin expects consolidated group Underlying EBITDA to be
around the mid-point of the original guidance range of $1,950 - $2,250 million. Higher
earnings from Integrated Gas as Australia Pacific LNG benefited from strong commodity
prices, are expected to offset a decline in Energy Markets earnings.
Integrated Gas and Corporate Underlying EBITDA is expected to be higher at $1,700 -
$1,800 million1
, compared to the original guidance of $1,500 - $1,650 million, driven primarily
by higher oil and LNG prices, with production and operating and capital expenditure at
Australia Pacific LNG in line with expectations. The cash distribution to Origin net of oil
hedging loss is expected to be around $1.4 billion, compared with the original guidance of
>$1.1 billion.
In Energy Markets, ongoing challenges with coal supply have been impacting Eraring Power
Station throughout FY2022. However, the situation has deteriorated significantly in recent
weeks, with material under-delivery of contracted coal compared to expectations, and with
Centennial Coal notifying Origin of further production constraints at its Mandalong mine.
Deliveries from the Mandalong mine are expected to be interrupted during the remainder of
FY2022 and into the first half of FY2023. Equipment supply chain delays are also expected
to impact coal deliveries in FY2023.
The recent material under-delivery of coal to Eraring results in lower output from the plant,
additional replacement coal purchases at significantly higher prices, and is being
exacerbated by coal delivery constraints via rail. Despite positioning the year with a relatively
low short position across all states, the lower output from Eraring results in a greater
exposure to the purchase of electricity at current high spot prices in order to meet customer
demand.
1
Based on an effective lagged APLNG oil price of US$74/bbl, weighted average JKM price of US$28/mmbtu and
AUD:USD exchange rate of 0.72.
As a result, Origin now expects Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA in FY2022 to be $310 -
$460 million, lower than the original guidance range of $450 - $600 million.
FY2023
Origin had previously provided guidance for Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA for FY2023
of $600 - $850 million. Since the time FY2023 guidance was provided, there have been
material developments in global and Australian energy markets.
The challenges with coal delivery to Eraring Power Station are expected to persist into
FY2023. This is expected to result in a material increase in coal purchasing costs given high
coal prices and continued exposure to high spot electricity prices. While Origin has worked
closely with coal suppliers to secure additional coal supply by rail, there are limitations to the
amount of coal that can be delivered to the plant by this method. Therefore, there is
uncertainty regarding the plant’s output in FY2023. Origin is part-way through finalising coal
contracting arrangements for FY2023.
Higher domestic gas prices are expected to provide a benefit in FY2023. Origin holds a
largely fixed price gas portfolio in FY2023 which is expected to benefit from higher market
prices.
The current high commodity price environment is a net benefit for Integrated Gas, with
higher sale prices more than offsetting higher input prices, including power costs.
Due to the factors outlined above, there is a very high degree of uncertainty around the
range of earnings outcomes for the 2023 financial year. As a result, Origin has withdrawn all
guidance for FY2023. Origin will continue to assess the outlook, with a view to providing an
update at full year results in August.
Separately, Origin has now completed $185 million of its targeted $250 million share buyback as announced in March 2022. The buy-back is expected to be completed over coming
months.
Management will hold an investor and analyst call at 11:30am (AEST) this morning. Dial in
details are on the company’s website.

===================================================================================================

i do not hold this share ( but have in the past ) ( exited this in December 2017 @ $9.45 AND a profit )


----------



## JohnDe (7 June 2022)

Origin is warning that smaller energy suppliers will go broke. Most like due to them locking in low supply pricing contracts with consumers and having no room to move, plus they are only suppliers of energy not producers.



> *Electricity retailers face collapse, Origin Energy warns*
> 
> Origin Energy has predicted smaller electricity retailers face collapse due to soaring wholesale energy prices and has called on governments to prioritise coal supply for power stations to ease a growing energy crisis.
> 
> ...


----------



## Bourseboy (7 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Origin is warning that smaller energy suppliers will go broke. Most like due to them locking in low supply pricing contracts with consumers and having no room to move, plus they are only suppliers of energy not producers.



Have received  number emails and text messages from my electricity retailer (ReAmped) for a week or more, advising me to find some other company to supply my electricity. Also telling me to look elsewhere ASAP in order for me not to lose out. Even saying I can look for fixed price suppliers. I have checked suppliers websites and comparison websites and have spoken to some of these companies. I have not found any that will 'guarantee'/fix tariff for 12 months (or any term). My understanding is that tariffs will increase 1 July. Some companies have said they will know later this month what their post 1 July tariffs will be. I see no point in changing supplier now, because who knows what they will charge after 1 July. The 'deal' that suits me now might not be so attractive after 1 July. All this had convinced me to get solar panels on our roof. Feed-in tariff will be a consideration (minor). I can only see electricity prices increasing for the next few years, so any solar system that is attractive today will only look better in the future. We have driven our electricity usage down as far as practically possible. Solar technology has probably reached as high a point as it is likely to for some years to come. Government assistance (STC/rebates) is probably as good as it will be for now. 

Or, do you think our new government will be generous with regard to solar incentives? We live in Sydney, have good N-facing roof that will hold 6.6kW of panels. Just started looking and expect to pay (after rebates) $4000-$8000 (lowest decent quality panels and inverter with  quality installation to mid-range panels and inverter with quality installation). Considered batter(ies), but payback is too long. Just want to ensure inverter is battery ready.

Does anyone know of electricity suppliers that have announced 1 July pricing, or will hold prices for a fixed term??
Note, we buy electricity only, as there is no gas in our area.


----------



## JohnDe (7 June 2022)

Bourseboy said:


> Have received  number emails and text messages from my electricity retailer (ReAmped) for a week or more, advising me to find some other company to supply my electricity. Also telling me to look elsewhere ASAP in order for me not to lose out. Even saying I can look for fixed price suppliers. I have checked suppliers websites and comparison websites and have spoken to some of these companies. I have not found any that will 'guarantee'/fix tariff for 12 months (or any term). My understanding is that tariffs will increase 1 July. Some companies have said they will know later this month what their post 1 July tariffs will be. I see no point in changing supplier now, because who knows what they will charge after 1 July. The 'deal' that suits me now might not be so attractive after 1 July. All this had convinced me to get solar panels on our roof. Feed-in tariff will be a consideration (minor). I can only see electricity prices increasing for the next few years, so any solar system that is attractive today will only look better in the future. We have driven our electricity usage down as far as practically possible. Solar technology has probably reached as high a point as it is likely to for some years to come. Government assistance (STC/rebates) is probably as good as it will be for now.
> 
> Or, do you think our new government will be generous with regard to solar incentives? We live in Sydney, have good N-facing roof that will hold 6.6kW of panels. Just started looking and expect to pay (after rebates) $4000-$8000 (lowest decent quality panels and inverter with  quality installation to mid-range panels and inverter with quality installation). Considered batter(ies), but payback is too long. Just want to ensure inverter is battery ready.
> 
> ...




I read an article and your energy suppliers was mentioned for exactly what you are saying. Their aim is to get customers to move on before the company is forced to put prices up (depending on the fine print on individual contracts) or close the doors.

Keep looking, the big suppliers may offer something just to get more users on their books.

My timing was good - I've been with Origin for many years. a couple of weeks ago I called and requested a price cut for loyalty or I'll move on. They gave me a 11% discount off my usual price for a year. Actually, I didn't call, asked my wife to do it but I'm taking the credit for it


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## Austwide (7 June 2022)

In Victoria there are KW limits in at least in some areas on solar generation. 
This is where too many consumers feed in power at times of little demand.

Don't know in your area but check before installing.


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## qldfrog (7 June 2022)

Austwide said:


> In Victoria there are KW limits in at least in some areas on solar generation.
> This is where too many consumers feed in power at times of little demand.
> 
> Don't know in your area but check before installing.



Between your daily feed in fee, the limit on overall feed in being paid, you can produce twice as much as you consume (after self consumption) and still pay $90 a month bill
Our new place.
Will be off the grid as soon as i move next


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## finicky (7 June 2022)

Coincidentally I just got around to reading an email alert from Greg Canavan's Investment Advisory and he recommended subscriber clients to sell half their ORG shares today. He still likes ORG's prospects longer term but the withdrawal of FY23 profit guidance has made him cautious. While noting that the LNG gas producing division will bump revenue, he believes the coal shortage and price strength will persist for a while. He says the Eraring coal-fired power station in NSW has not been getting enough coal from its contractor, forcing ORG to buy coal on the heated spot market as well as buying electricity itself to fulfill supply contracts.
Fwiw, his subscribers can still sell half their ORG shares at around a 35% profit if bought at time of his recommendation.

Not Held


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## Smurf1976 (8 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Origin is warning that smaller energy suppliers will go broke. Most like due to them locking in low supply pricing contracts with consumers and having no room to move, plus they are only suppliers of energy not producers.



As noted in another thread, about 27 have now withdrawn their offer to new customers in one or more states.

Most of those won't be going broke but they're in a position where growing the business is the last thing they want to do, since that just results in a net short position on their supply side, so they're shutting the door to new customers. Origin is one of those who'll likely gain long term given they can withstand the short term pain.

The one "red flag" I'll sound is with regard to the sum total of being an LNG exporter, one of the big 3 gentailers and having coal supply issues at Eraring. That environment comes with massive scrutiny and politics and they'll have to tread extremely carefully there as will all companies in the sector.


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## Dona Ferentes (10 November 2022)

Brookfield Asset Management and private equity firm MidOcean Energy have lobbed a surprise $18.4 billion takeover bid for Origin Energy, after twice increasing their offer price.

The pair are offering $9.00 a share cash for Origin, after raising their initial bid from $7.95 a share.

_Five year chart_


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Brookfield Asset Management and private equity firm MidOcean Energy have lobbed a surprise $18.4 billion takeover bid for Origin Energy, after twice increasing their offer price.
> 
> The pair are offering $9.00 a share cash for Origin, after raising their initial bid from $7.95 a share.
> 
> ...



Good one.

I was surprised by the offer. I have held ORG for eons, way before Chess times and it sits in my SMSF Commsec Account in a below the line space along with other long term holdings with strange HINs. 

I couldn't work out why I was outperforming the XAO today, and there it was. ORG at an indecent price. 

Let the bidding begin. Onwards and upwards. 

Price target $15 just to even my holdings up. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (10 November 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ... I was surprised by the offer. I have held ORG for eons, way before Chess times and it sits in my SMSF Commsec Account in a below the line space along with other long term holdings with *strange HINs.*
> gg



Didn't ORG spin out of Boral way back when? ... and was quite the success story

_the strange HINs could be *SRNs*?_


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Didn't ORG spin out of Boral way back when? ... and was quite the success story
> 
> _the strange HINs could be *SRNs*?_



You have a better memory than me. 

Yep SRN's.

gg


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## Smurf1976 (10 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Didn't ORG spin out of Boral way back when?



Yep.

And Boral itself created what became Origin by progressively taking over every small gas and LPG company they could find, indeed they bought most of them during the 1980’s.

The oldest predecessor company being the Launceston Gas Company, established 1857 and acquired by Boral circa 1980.


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## sptrawler (10 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Yep.
> 
> And Boral itself created what became Origin by progressively taking over every small gas and LPG company they could find, indeed they bought most of them during the 1980’s.
> 
> The oldest predecessor company being the Launceston Gas Company, established 1857 and acquired by Boral circa 1980.



It's an interesting move IMO, should make AGL step up the pace, interesting times ahead IMO.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 November 2022)

sptrawler said:


> It's an interesting move IMO, should make AGL step up the pace, interesting times ahead IMO.



ORG is ideally placed for the future renewable energy space.

With gas, wind, solar and hydrogen assets anyone who accepts this $9 offer needs their head read. 

I would consider at $15, unless another suitor appeared, when I'd need to consider higher. 

gg


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## martaart077 (10 November 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ORG is ideally placed for the future renewable energy space.
> 
> With gas, wind, solar and hydrogen assets anyone who accepts this $9 offer needs their head read.
> 
> ...



In abscence of a better offer, the Board has unanimously accepted the offer.


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 November 2022)

martaart077 said:


> In abscence of a better offer, the Board has unanimously accepted the offer.



ffs

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (10 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> And Boral itself created what became Origin by progressively taking over every small gas and LPG company they could find, indeed they bought most of them during the 1980’s.


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## So_Cynical (10 November 2022)

Yet another TO of one of my portfolio stocks, i bought 3 parcels in 2020 on the way down ~ 6.90 ~ 5.51 and 4.50 love it when a plan comes together, i think ill wait for the 9 bucks.


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## Smurf1976 (10 November 2022)

The one issue I can see here is government.

Given current circumstances in the energy industry, a potential issue is that the buyer is foreign.

In short my thinking is the Australian Government wouldn't stop Brookfield acquiring Origin as an ongoing Australian company but would likely be far less keen on it becoming a foreign company as such. That way from a legal perspective the Australian Government holds jurisdiction over it.

Just speculation on my part but it wouldn't surprise me given circumstances in the industry at present and same applies to any major player. Bearing in mind that the precedent well and truly exists - for most of their existence AGL and the predecessor gas companies merged into Origin were indeed protected in terms of who could own them. Santos was also subject to regulation in the past of a similar nature to prevent "undesirable" people buying up enough shares to have influence.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 November 2022)

The Takeover Committee here at the pub feels the ACCC may not look kindly on Brookfield's bid for ORG.

The Audit and Risk Committee suggests contacting Twiggy Forrest for a $15 bid. 

gg


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## divs4ever (12 November 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The Takeover Committee here at the pub feels the ACCC may not look kindly on Brookfield's bid for ORG.
> 
> The Audit and Risk Committee suggests contacting Twiggy Forrest for a $15 bid.
> 
> gg



 not Gina ? , because Twiggy has a lot of plans and balls in the air already , and ORG has a few bridges to mend 

 i also doubt Twiggy would offer $15  , but maybe the Stokes' would go $10  for a controlling stake ( and seats on the board )


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