# DrBourse TA Help for Beginners



## DrBourse (24 July 2021)

Dr Bourse Message for NEWBIES…

This post is for the “Wanna-be” Newbie Share Traders…..

The following may seem harsh to you, but I'm trying to stop you losing money….

Basically there is a lot to learn about this industry, but IMO you HAVE started off with the correct approach, by asking questions….



*Here are a few suggestions for you to contemplate…

These are in no particular order…..

I’m just going to drop suggestions one after the other as they come to me…*

What Tier Data Provider do you use, Tier 1, 2, 3 or 4 - depending on your trading time frames, some of us could have bought and sold the share you want to buy, 2 or 3 times before you get your data, so be careful what Share Trading Platform you use….



You need to know what certain “external events” have on stocks, particularly when they happen outside Trading Hours – for example how do stocks react to Interest Rate Changes, or to Commodity Price changes – for example a Mining Stock may rise or fall when Iron Ore or Gold prices change, but Health Funds may not react….



How will you identify a Positive History – Companies only issue Financials periodically through the year – any Financial or Rumour effects on a Companies Financials are interpreted differently by various analysts – which one will you believe – or are you able to dissect a Balance Sheet ….

A Stocks History over 12 mths is irrelevant… A Stocks History is normally 5 to 10 years….Which of the approx 50 Ratios and/or 30 Margins of Safety would you be looking at to help evaluate a Positive History??..Which of these Buffett style calculations would you be using to help your evaluation of a stock:- DDM, DDMF, GIVF, PRESVAL, RIV, ERI, NCAV, PAYBACK, PEG, PEGY, STRET, STRETD, TARG, TARGD, EGROWTH, ESAFETY, PESAFETY, (there are several others)….



Do you know what the overnight “ASX SPI” is, and how it will effect todays Share Prices….

Do you understand how Stocks react to certain Political Decisions....

Do you know what time the Economic Clock is ATM....

Do you understand the S&P Credit Rating System for Companies (AAA, BBB, etc), and what those ratings mean to a Company….

Do you know what ‘Minor Irritants’ such as Algorithmic Traders, Swing Traders and Option Traders do and how they effect a companies share price…

Do you know IF your chosen Stock CAN be Shorted…

Do you understand how Short Selling effects your chosen Stock….

Do you calculate your own “Intrinsic Values” – if not why not??..

Do you know what Australian ADR Stocks are - do you know how they effect their Australian equivalent....

Do you check Overseas Exchanges to see how Australian Dual Listed Stocks performed yesterday, their + or – for the day is usually reflected here in Aust…

Check out the NCM Stocks on the Dow Jones – Start by searching for NCMGF and NCMGY…



Don’t Trade too many stocks at the same time, it is not easy, while you are winning and watching your profits grow on say 2 or 3 of them, the others can quickly reverse and obliterate any profit you thought you may have had….

Why not trade 2 or 3, have all 3 charts and all 3 Market Depths on multiple screens at the same time, and watch them “like a hawk”….



Don't take tips on face value…

Be careful of forums like Hot Copper (BS could be a better abbreviation for some posts there). There is gold to be found in all stock forums but sometimes you have to sift through a lot of less desirable gold coloured material to find it!....



Paper trade for 6 months to prove you are not going to lose your money….



Don't gear your investments with products like CFD's unless you really know what you are doing. My recommendation is don't gear - full stop…..



Get some education in trading so you can do your own research and not become a lemming (ie follow someone else over a cliff)…..



Beware if trading a performing sector, as it is more likely to become an underperforming sector much sooner than most of us expect….most of us are already in those “performing sectors”, we are just waiting to sell our holdings to you….We have already used our Tools of Trade to get into performing sectors before they started to rise in value, we have also used those tools to evaluate an approximate “Exit Point”….



Be careful if you decide to trade for “Dividends Only”, The ATO likes Traders/Investors with that approach…



What timeframe are you looking at to carry out your Technical &/or Financial Analysis over….

For Technical Analysis what do you know about Charts, or Chart Indicators, or Candlesticks etc…..

For Financial Analysis what do you know about Ratios, or Margins of Safety….

Do you understand Balance Sheets, can you correctly interpret the figures they quote…..



What type of charts are you using, Linear, Log or Arithmetic, Each Chart Type produces slightly different outcomes when conducting Chart Analysis…..

Do you understand Technical Analysis Tools like Charts & Indicators, do you understand how to read them, do you understand what they are telling you…?

Do you use any other indicator over or on top of your Chart or Basic Indicators – if not, why not…

Personally, I use several indicators on all my charts, IMO that gives me several different points of view on the Technical Merit of a stock – why would you only rely on one….



IMO, Traders should not get too involved with STOP LOSS points - I do not use a Conventionally Accepted STOP LOSS or TRAILING STOP LOSS System….I feel that those systems belong to the Longer Term Investors….Once I have in my opinion, enough Signals/Signs from my Tools of Trade, I will act immediately….For example if a Bearish Candle Pattern and/or my Indicators suggest that a pullback or downtrend is imminent I will follow those signals and exit the Trade immediately....If I were to use a % Stop Loss System (of say 2%) and my Tools of Trade gave me enough signals to exit for say 0.5%, I would be crazy to hold and watch any small loss be increased just because that “% Stop Loss System” told me I had to wait till my losses reached that magical 2% - it would be easier to just give some money away....Admittedly I sometimes exit a trade early – but I prefer to be cautious – and if my Tools of Trade suggest continued uptrend then I can easily re-enter the Trade....- the idea is to trade when there is a trade to be made, and even then you should 'Play the Trade' (like playing a Fish), you should not trade the $$$'s - get the trades right and the $$$'s will automatically follow…



Do you know what the “ASX staggered Open Times are”.

Do you know what the “ASX Pre-CSPA Times are”.

Try this site Cash market trading hours (asx.com.au) .

Do you know what Candle Construction is and how to interpret it…?

Do you know what Tick and Intraday Charts are and how they relate to Daily Charts……?



Emotion and Intuition are very useful in this industry – do not disregard either one...

Experienced traders do NOT make money off fellow Traders – We profit from mistakes made by Newbies…

Let me know when you master all of the above aspects of this profession – I will then post the more complicated 10 pages of “what you need to know” if you are going to dabble in this Sand Pit.

Good Luck...

DrB.


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## DrBourse (24 July 2021)

Let's start with the Basics of Candlesticks.
Pages 3, 4 & 5 Now, and if anyone is interested there may be another 209 to follow over time, covering various aspects of Technical Analysis such as Charts, Indicators, etc


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## DrBourse (24 July 2021)

Pages 6,7 & 8


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## tech/a (24 July 2021)

Sounds a lot like theory rather than a proven trading methodology.

What in your opinion is your market edge? 
Can you trade a few charts to show your ideas or trading method 
Similar to Pete 2 and a few others here.


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## DrBourse (24 July 2021)

How about we jump a few pages up to pages 203 to 212.


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## DrBourse (24 July 2021)

Now if ya don't mind I wanna see what other comment come my way. Then I might continue with the logical sequence of page nrs at some later stage........


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## DrBourse (24 July 2021)

Hi JD


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## tech/a (24 July 2021)

Thanks for posting —- a lot of effort 

iIt’s very easy to label a chart for past price action.
much harder to trade a chart in real-time from the right hand edge.
I’m also seeing a myriad of oscillators many with very similar formulas 
which not surprisingly show very similar over bought and over sold levels
along with similar divergences.

Are you targeting novice traders?
With your aim to introduce them to ideas?

Personally I’m always interested in practical application in real-time 
than showing me what HAPPENED after the fact.

Many here have done and are doing that.
Pete 2 who has left on this site by far the best real-time education I’ve ever seen.
Has about 3 invaluable threads going.


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## DrBourse (28 July 2021)

The 212 Snapshots I intended to post here are of an educational nature, primarily from my past Seminar Presentations.

Some of those snapshots occasionally require updates, as usually happens with Powerpoint productions.

Recently found out that there are restrictions on ‘editing past posts’ here.

That scenario does not suit my needs – so, unfortunately, there is not much point in continuing with this forum.

Cheers.

DrB


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## rederob (28 July 2021)

DrBourse said:


> The 212 Snapshots I intended to post here are of an educational nature, primarily from my past Seminar Presentations.
> 
> Some of those snapshots occasionally require updates, as usually happens with Powerpoint productions.
> 
> Recently found out that there are restrictions on ‘editing past posts’ here.



We all make mistakes in posting but anything really bad that you miss correcting in 30 minutes you can ask @Joe Blow to be withdrawn (deleted).
I don't understand why you would need to edit past posts given we all recognise that our practices (should) change over time.  The value of posts standing as is, is that we have a history to follow that is not tainted by *revisionism*.
ASF  affords us all the lesson of being able to revisit our absolute clangers, determine what led to the mistake, and hope that we won't repeat it in a hurry.
And I don't get this:


DrBourse said:


> That scenario does not suit my needs ....



If you really came to ASF to help *others* - especially beginners - then why is it about *your needs*?


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## tech/a (28 July 2021)

rederob said:


> We all make mistakes in posting but anything really bad that you miss correcting in 30 minutes you can ask @Joe Blow to be withdrawn (deleted).
> I don't understand why you would need to edit past posts given we all recognise that our practices (should) change over time.  The value of posts standing as is, is that we have a history to follow that is not tainted by *revisionism*.
> ASF  affords us all the lesson of being able to revisit our absolute clangers, determine what led to the mistake, and hope that we won't repeat it in a hurry.
> And I don't get this:
> ...



What was the mistake that needed to be changed.


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## rederob (28 July 2021)

tech/a said:


> What was the mistake that needed to be changed.



Not just one!
Some in threads that I have been too late to edit but did not bother with omit the word "not", meaning what I said was the opposite of what I intended.  But sticking the wrong chart up gets a bit too obvious .


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## tech/a (28 July 2021)

Sorry I thought it was this thread specific.
Understand.


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## DaveTrade (29 July 2021)

Hi DrBourse, I think that your heart is in the right place but it may be better to put up little bit of education and see what feedback you get from people, then if and when they want more, move on to the next part.


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## DaveTrade (29 July 2021)

I'd like to add that the hardest part about trading is not learning all the bits (stuff) but understanding how it relates to real time trading. so I see the point that tech/a makes as well.


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## Joe Blow (29 July 2021)

Forum threads are all about moving forward, not looking back. Any changes to old posts would mostly go unnoticed by those following the thread, as once a thread moves forward a page most people wouldn't go back looking for any changes. To revise or re-think an old post, just quote the post and then add whatever new content you feel is necessary to make the point you want to make. 

A forum thread is a living, evolving exploration of an idea or ideas. There is no perfection, and changes or revisions happen one post at a time, just like a real life discussion where someone might later qualify or correct something they had previously said. The key is to always think through very carefully what you are going to post before you post it, or before you click the "Post Reply" button, and then proofread it carefully after posting.

That being said, I will happily change any post that someone would like changed. I do it every now and again and it's no problem.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Some Basic Explanations on various "Candle Formations".


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

An Overview of Indicator Parameters.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

An Overview of Indicator Parameters.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

More Indicator Signals - Understand what they are telling you.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

A brief pverview of Chart Types.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

A brief explanation of Linear Regression.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Phantom Divergences.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Basic explanation of Market Depth.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Algorithmic Trading, also called automated trading, black-box trading, or algo trading, is the use of electronic platforms for entering trading orders with an algorithm which executes pre-programmed trading instructions whose variables may include timing, price, or quantity of the order, or in many cases initiating the order by a "robot", without human intervention. Algorithmic trading is widely used by investment banks, pension funds, mutual funds, and other buy-side (investor-driven) institutional traders, to divide large trades into several smaller trades to manage market impact and risk...... 
Algorithmic Trading Definition 1 – Trading, where a computer program performs the decision-making around what quantity, price, order type, wait-time and size to use when calculating an order... the computer then automatically places the trade when set parameters are met... An algorithmic order is chopped up into many smaller orders each of which adjust their pricing and aggressiveness based upon factors such as: – Real-time market data – Current status of the order – Algorithm’s parameters.......
Algorithmic Trading Definition 2 - where a large number of small trades appear, they are usually generated by a fund/broker, they can buy shares as a bulk buy but only up to a certain limit, as the ASX does not want them to Spook the Sheep, so as an alternative process they tend to take small bites, and hope the observant ppl like you just do not notice the numerous small trades.......
Algorithmic Trading in Depth Explanation - Algorithmic trading Shares are traded on ASX on a price and time priority basis. If you are using an online broker, your order is routed directly to the market via your broker’s filters. This is called Direct Market Access (DMA) and it allows you a high level of control over your trading. DMA enables brokers to enter your order into the market, via their IT systems and pre-trade filters. Some professional traders also use DMA. However, instead of manually entering their orders into a computer, they rely on a set of trading rules (trading algorithms) which are entered into a computer.......
The computer then makes trading decisions for the professional trader based on these rules. Trading algorithms can be programmed to achieve different objectives – such as to minimise market impact costs and capture trading opportunities. An algorithm is simply a set of instructions to complete a given task. Algorithmic trading is a computerised, rule-based system responsible for executing orders to buy or sell a security.......
Algorithmic trading activity on ASX has meant; -    1/ trade execution speed increase,........ 2/ daily transaction volume increase,....... 3/ an average value reduction for each trade........
Many retail investors find algorithmic trading unusual because it can generate a lot of trades for very small numbers of shares. ASX closely monitors algorithmic trading patterns – as it does for all trading activity - and while the level of algorithmic trading has increased in recent years, it has not raised major issues for ASX........
When ASX does uncover evidence of manipulative trading behaviour, however generated, a referral is made to ASIC, the regulator. To better understand the effects of algorithmic trading, it is useful to understand what algorithms are seeking to achieve.......
Execution algorithms were developed to minimise the market impact of large orders and therefore reduce the costs of trading. The most common of these is VWAP – an algorithm designed to ensure that the execution of a large order is done at the volume weighted average price of a security over a day........
Situational Algorithms are more sophisticated algorithms, which seek to profit from changes in data, information and events. Whereas an execution algorithm is used to execute a pre-existing order in the most efficient manner, a situational algorithm seeks to take advantage of a particular situation – hence the name....... 
It will create orders from a computer-generated algorithmic strategy as well as execute the orders as efficiently as possible. Example of an execution algorithm undertaking a Volume Weighted Average Price strategy The VWAP strategy is one of the most commonly used trading algorithms. The aim of the strategy is to achieve a steady price over the day, weighted by the volume (number of shares) traded. A VWAP order would typically be achieved by splitting the total order into multiples of smaller orders, with these smaller orders being executed during the day........
The table below shows a typical course of sales from a VWAP strategy. There are two large orders then a series of small orders being executed as part of the VWAP algorithm........
A Trade History as shown within The Course of Sales for 19775 Shares could look like the following:-   (Security Code, Price, Trade size, Time)
XYZ 2.95 12,394 11:35
XYZ 2.96 7,356 11:35
XYZ 2.96 5 11:36
XYZ 2.96 5 11:36
XYZ 2.95 5 11:37
XYZ 2.97 5 11:41
XYZ 2.97 5 11:43
ASX does not have system minimum limits on trade size for execution - however brokers may set limits on the volume and or value of the trades their clients can execute through their systems. Many stockbrokers will typically set a minimum order size of $500, OR LOWER...So orders as small as 1 are often seen within the “Course of Sales”......


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Red/Green Candles - It is usually always a 'warning' when a stock is "UP" for the day - but has a RED Candle for the day, alternatively, it’s usually always encouraging to see a stock that is "DOWN" for the day – but has a GREEN Candle for the day.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Head and Shoulders - One of the most reliable reversal signals is a head and shoulders formation.... As the name implies, it is created as a result of three congestion areas.... The first forms a shoulder, the second the head and the third a second shoulder.... The head congestion is above the shoulders, which both form on the same support line and within the same basic range.... In the case of a head and shoulders top, the reversal of a bull market trend is signalled.... The projected target lower is the same distance below the neckline as from the neckline to the head.... A break of the neckline not only signals a move to the target area, but also confirms the trend change and the start of a new bear market trend.... Rallies are generally associated with increasing volume during a bull market phase, therefore when volume decreases on a market advance it can signal a potential reversal.... The head section of the head and shoulders is often accompanied by decreased volume, relative to past advances....  The right shoulder, too, often has very light volume associated with it, but the break of the neckline and the subsequent move lower will generally see volume increase.... A break of the neckline will often see price retest the old neckline, which then becomes resistance, prior to the major move lower.... As a result there is often a second opportunity to establish a position if you miss the initial neckline break....  In the example below, the second shoulder is still in the process of being formed, but one can already see the recognisable shape of the head and shoulders....


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Up or DOWN GAPS  PROVIDE ACCURATE SUPPORT/RESISTANCE AREAS- A Rule of Thumb suggests that for these Gap Areas to be effective:- the Gap must be Similar in SIZE (High to Low), or Larger than, an Average Large Candle for the Stock - Gap Areas are governed by the same rules as Support/Resistance Lines, in that they are often broken very quickly, but on average they are formidable barriers to any Stock.... There is a common misconception that once GAP AREAS are broken, they are no longer effective, this belief is incorrect, Gap Areas are similar to Support & Resistance Lines, Support & Resistance Lines continue for as long as is required, They often change from Support to Resistance or from Resistance to Support, Gap Areas are the same, they continue for as long as is required, They often change from Support to Resistance or from Resistance to Support... For Stocks that continually GAP, the effects of those GAPS are less Potent. For Stocks that rarely have GAPS, any GAP usually has a PROFOUND EFFECT. A Gap Up suggests a Positive Trend should follow - A Gap Down suggests a Negative Trend should follow. Other Smaller Gaps usually relate to a Candle Pattern or a Candle Formation (as suggested in pages 10, 22, 24, 25 and a few other scenarios that are not included in my Original Manual)... When the Price is BELOW a Gap, The Top of a Gap is referred to as the Major Resistance Line, The Bottom of a Gap is referred to as the Minor Resistance Line, So for an Uptrend to continue the Price needs to pass above the Minor Line then above the Major Line... When the Price is ABOVE a Gap, The Top of a Gap is referred to as the Minor Support Line, The Bottom of a Gap is referred to as the Major Support Line, So for a Downtrend to continue the Price needs to pass below the Minor Line then below the Major Line...

Refer to Snapshots 203 to 212 near the top of this Forum.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

All TA has 'Names', like Gaps, Candles, Trend Line Formations, etc, etc, - the trick is to learn what effect each "event" has on a stock price, forget the names, it will make your life a lot simpler..


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Everyone should experiment and find a Trading Approach that works for them - my manual is basically to get ppl to understand what I do, how it works, then hope they will try to discover something that works for them, I suggest  that you read p36 (the black text),& all of p49 & p119 - It also depends on what Software Trading Platform you use - there is not just one program that has ALL the available Indicators, so you would need to become an expert with Indicators that you have available to you.
One thing that I do suggest to ppl is that "you should look at a chart, decide where you would have LIKED to enter and exit a trade, then use different indicators & indicator settings to help show you those entry/exit points, then paper trade with those settings on various stocks to see how consistently they work.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

I do not use a Conventionally Accepted Stop Loss or Trailing Stop Loss System…I feel that those systems belong to the Longer Term Investors…Once I have in my opinion, enough Signals/Signs from my Tools of Trade, I will act immediately…For example if a Bearish Candle Pattern and/or my Indicators suggest that a pullback or downtrend is imminent I will follow those signals and exit the Trade immediately…If I were to use a % Stop Loss System (of say 2%) and my Tools of Trade gave me enough signals to exit for say 0.5%, I would be crazy to hold and watch any small loss be increased just because that “% Stop Loss System” told me I had to wait till my losses reached that magical 2% - it would be easier to just give some money away…Admittedly I sometimes exit a trade early – but I prefer to be cautious – and if my Tools of Trade suggest continued uptrend then I can easily re-enter the Trade.
"You can assist whatever Stop Loss System you use by "Correct Stock Selection" & "Correct $$ Management" - for example - If you invest $50k in Penny Dreadful’s like LKO shares you will probably activate your Stop Loss System immediately, and if you are not quick enough you could lose the lot - On the other hand $50k invested in BHP shares would be a safer trade, less risk, probably less profit but better protection for your capital“.
IMO, Traders should not get too involved with Stop Loss points - I do not use a Conventionally Accepted Stop Loss or Trailing Stop Loss System….I feel that those systems belong to the Longer Term Investors….Once I have in my opinion, enough Signals/Signs from my Tools of Trade, I will act immediately….For example if a Bearish Candle Pattern and/or my Indicators suggest that a pullback or downtrend is imminent I will follow those signals and exit the Trade immediately....If I were to use a % Stop Loss System (of say 2%) and my Tools of Trade gave me enough signals to exit for say 0.5%, I would be crazy to hold and watch any small loss be increased just because that “% Stop Loss System” told me I had to wait till my losses reached that magical 2% - it would be easier to just give some money away....Admittedly I sometimes exit a trade early – but I prefer to be cautious – and if my Tools of Trade suggest continued uptrend then I can easily re-enter the Trade....- the idea is to trade when there is a trade to be made, and even then you should 'Play the Trade' (like playing a Fish), you should not trade the $$$'s - get the trades right and the $$$'s will automatically follow.
Most Traders use strict Stop Loss systems I primarily use my Indicators as my initial Stop Loss System, when they turn Negative, I jump - the other system is a "TSL" = Trailing Stop Loss of a $/c value - so had everybody been using some sort of Stop Loss they would have a small Trading Loss to use as a Tax Ded'n -
"You can assist whatever Stop Loss System you use by "Correct Stock Selection" & "Correct $$ Management" - for example - If you invest $50k in LKO shares you will probably activate your Stop Loss System immediately, and if you are not quick enough you could lose the lot - On the other hand $50k invested in BHP shares would be a safer trade, less risk, probably less profit but better protection for your capital".

Suggest that you try this site http://www.incrediblecharts.com/ , lots of FREE Educational Info...On the Incredible Charts Home page, top right hand side, do a search for ‘Stop Loss’...
Also see my Snapshots 112, 116 & 160...Then do a Google Search for Stop Loss - dozens of good explanations there...

A lot of Day Traders prefer to use alarms rather than Stop Loss Triggers.....  Most of the Software Trading Platforms (Metastock, Incredible Charts, etc) have an alarm system that may be of use to you..... I have an average of 20-25 alarms that I review Daily....  You can usually set these alarms on a SP, an Open, a Close, a High, etc, some can be set for release of an announcement - lots of other parameters may be available depending on the program.... the obvious drawback with alarms is that you have to be online when the alarm is triggered for it to be of any value...


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Divergence Indicators.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Trading Channels.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Triangles.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

Benchmark Candles & Secondary Benchmark Candles.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

UP & DOWN GAPS.


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## DrBourse (1 August 2021)

I rely heavily on a 3 indicators combination, a CCI (10) and an MFI (30) below the chart, and a 30 day Linear Regression on the chart.
I've found over the years that the CCI is not always available on some platforms (Commsuc for example).
In the absence of the CCI, I find that a Will%R (12 or 13) gives a very similar indicator End Point as the CCI (10)


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## DrBourse (2 August 2021)

DaveTrade said:


> Hi DrBourse, I think that your heart is in the right place but it may be better to put up little bit of education and see what feedback you get from people, then if and when they want more, move on to the next part.



Hi DT,
Sorry M8, not my style, prefer to post the lot in one hit then after the 'Point Scorers' finish, we can hopefully move on to some "constructive discussions" with the beginners.
Been doing this for many years now, found that most beginners want the lot 'up front', like in a Seminar, they can then digest it at their leisure.
Cheers..


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## DrBourse (3 August 2021)

The 3 “DrBourse Help For Beginners” forums ALL contain a series of “RANDOM POSTS” on subjects and items that may be of interest to beginners…

My intention is to lodge numerous posts to start with, then enter into “CONSTRUCTIVE DISCUSSIONS” that are geared toward assisting with beginner’s education in the various aspects of Share Trading….

These posts are not intended to be in any logically presented format….

Experienced Traders will gain little from my posts….


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## DrBourse (8 August 2021)

tech/a said:


> Sounds a lot like theory rather than a proven trading methodology.
> 
> What in your opinion is your market edge?
> Can you trade a few charts to show your ideas or trading method
> Similar to Pete 2 and a few others here.



Been proving it to hundreds of traders and a few brokers over the past 30+ years.
*Don't feel the need to prove anything to anybody anymore.*

BUT, see my post above dated July 24 2021 regarding pages 203 to 212.

My market edge is in helping to raise all beginners knowledge of share trading up to your illustrious level.


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## tech/a (8 August 2021)

DrBourse said:


> Been proving it to hundreds of traders and a few brokers over the past 30+ years.
> *Don't feel the need to prove anything to anybody anymore.*




_*Not asking for proof just practical application and if it doesn't work out how you handle it
and if it does work out how you handle that,and if it sits there doing very little how you handle that.*_


DrBourse said:


> BUT, see my post above dated July 24 2021 regarding pages 203 to 212.
> 
> My market edge is in helping to raise all beginners knowledge of share trading up to your illustrious level.



*I know you know what I mean and if your answer is honest then your presenting what you believe is a business
edge.
As for trading you dont seem to have one.*

Beginners dont know what to ask
They dont know what they need to know and most importantly

*They dont know what it is they dont need to know.*

There are books, videos ,courses papers and a plethora of ideas on what is needed to trade profitably.
Many "Educators" purposely complicate so called "teaching" with *ENDLESS* levels which they have
newbies believe will lead them to know how to trade profitably.

To newbies the more complex it is the more valuable information they think is hidden in the Reams
of copy.

The *truth *is.
Profitable trading comes from 
(1) Having more winning trades with accumulative trading profit higher than losing trades.
(2) OR Having larger winning trades that are greater than accumulated losing trades.
(3) OR Both.

So if your showing us how to do this ---what it is we have to know and there is *MORE WE DON'T NEED TO KNOW*
go ahead.
But presenting gap *theory* on page 210 has me perplexed as to the other 200 pages.

By the way there are buildings full of Quants,Scholars with economic doctorates employed by people with more money than
All of us on this web page---their research and implementation of millions of $$s of brain power often ekes out a little more than the Bourse being traded.

Personally The beginner traders I've met
aren't looking to increase their trading funds 12% a year
they want something substantial 30% or more.
Simplicity and individuality will get you there---not complexity.
*Complexity will get you mediocrity at best!

You wouldn't be Paul Kronk from Cairns would you?*


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## DrBourse (18 November 2021)

I would like to give Beginners a word of warning.


I recently came across a post from 15/3/21, the post read that :-

_“I understand that technical indicator signals are not impressive for professional traders. But for beginners, this technical analysis will be very useful. For example, _





A follow-up post lobbed a day later showing the Indicators used that produced that 14 Buys, 8 Neutrals & 4 Sells result.




*My point is that beginners must be very careful when acting on "Unsolicited Buy/Sell Recommendations".

Here are my reasons for the warning:-*

If you ever have to use numerous Oscillators, as in the above example, then you must ensure that they have Formulas that are based on different data.




The first 12 Moving Averages in the above example are virtually all the same, One would have been sufficient, which in turn would have lowered the Buy/Neutral/Sell ratio back to 8, 8 & 4.

Then you would need to Question WHY use SMA & EMA, why not use WMA – The example below should give you something to think about.




And using a Moving Average on an Indicator produces very good results, as shown in the next snapshot.





Finally, you would need to question the Terms used for each indicator, because Software programs like this one
can be manipulated to produce a desired result.




If I were to shorten each indicator term to say to about 7, then the end result would be entirely different, probably 20 Sell, 3 Neutral & 3 Buy.

Also note that the differences between each EMA/SMA are miniscule in the overall view.


I guess what I’m trying to suggest is that Experienced Traders are well aware of the hazards in “Following Unsolicited Recommendations”.
*BUT Beginners need to question everything*,

Cheers.
DrB


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## DrBourse (24 November 2021)

If anyone wants to follow a recent Trade of mine, go to the "*FMG - Fortescue Metals*" forum, pages 200 & 201 (and maybe page 202).
Not much point in me reposting everything here.
Cheers.
DrB.


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## DrBourse (15 December 2021)

Spent time recently looking back on old posts.

Noticed that there are a few chatters pointing out what they think is a *Double Top or Bottom*, when it is actually a *Tweezer Top or Bottom*.

Making a decision one way or the other on an incorrect TA identification can be fatal.

One of the Major Traps in identifying a Tweezer Top or Bottom is that most punters do not realise, or understand the implications involved, as there are more than 48 different connotations for each Tweezer Top, and 48 for each Tweezer Bottom that you may encounter.

Pages 13 & 14 below show the most common Tweezer Top & Tweezer Bottom formations.






*ALSO, I noticed that some punters get a bit confused with:-*

Double Tops & Bottoms (page 20),  Triple Tops & Bottoms (page 18),  Head & Shoulders (page 19),  Tower Tops & Bottoms (page 23),
 A quick look at the pages below may help those that are unsure of what each one means.









Cheers.
DrB


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## Rabbithop (20 December 2021)

Good Day Dr. B and may I take this early opportunity to wish you and All members A Merry Christmas in this testing Pandemic time. Stay Safe and Stay Well. 
Saw this section of your post while navigating my way. I am going to keep it for my holiday's reading, will pull out my file from the drawer.
LOL..printed your book you kindly emailing me on another Forum site.


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## DrBourse (31 December 2021)

31/12/21 12.55pm

Something for Beginners to think about when conducting their own TA Research.

*This first snapshot* is from the CommSec/Quotes/Summary page where they share their Technical Analysis by saying:-
 “NCM shares appear to be in a strong near-term rally within a longer-term bearish trend. The 200-day moving average is downward sloping and implies that there has been limited demand for this stock. However, the stock has been rallying recently. Although it is too early to tell whether this rally could be the beginning of a new long-term trend, the stochastic oscillator is overbought and tells us that this level of upward momentum is unsustainable. Investors should proceed with caution”.

They also suggest that the Analysts Consensus is as follows “*Consensus *29 Dec 2021,10 Strong Buy, 2 Moderate Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Moderate Sell

CommSec’s last call was as a *Strong Buy* back on 04 Jan 2021 – predicatbly the NCM SP then dropped from $28.14 to $23.60 on 05 Mar 2021.




*This 2nd snapshot* is of the ST Indicators I use that show almost the exact opposite TA.

The CCI, after the recent SHH (pages 108 & 109), and the Rising MFI (page 95) suggest a continued uptrend, totally different to the CommSec Stochastics warning of caution.

The recent Gap up (pages 203 to 213) provides both Minor & Major Support levels below the current SP.




The moral of all this is that each Beginner needs to back-test Indicators on their selected Stocks to see how the indicators react to SP fluctuations.

In todays market the Old Brigade of Indicators like CStats, RSI, 200MA, etc, all with their Standard Settings, often give incorrect signals.

*Just because a book suggests to you that, for example, O'bought & O'sold lines are set at a particular level, it does not make that suggestion correct or incorrect, it's just a guide, a reference point, a starting point, nothing is 'set in concrete' - look at the Indicator Formulas, understand them, understand what the Indicator uses to calculate it's individual 'End Point' - use that understanding to gain an advantage over other traders.... *

Try different settings to those dictated by the experts (see page 119) - AND look for, and understand how the signals are presented to you (page 118).

As a Beginner you must back-test again, and again, in an attempt to understand the signals that Indicators can give you.

*DISC - I Hold NCM - So DYOR*

Cheers.
DrB


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## DrBourse (1 January 2022)

As a follow-up to my last post I would also suggest caution when Researching for Analysist Findings.

You need to know the source of whatever analysis you locate – Then you need to Rate the competency of those analyst’s reports.

For example, in my last post the First Snapshot of the CommSec Summary for NCM, the un-uninitiated would assume that the TA “_NCM shares appear etc etc_” has been done by CommSec.

*WRONG*.

The “fine print’ at the bottom of the Summary page reads as follows:-

“The data on this page has been provided by a number of external data vendors and has not been verified by us. All recommendations, data, calculation and values have been provided for your information only and should not be relied on for taxation or any other purposes.

The data has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial or taxation situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information displayed, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.

CommSec does not accept any responsibility for any losses suffered due to reliance on the data, calculations or values. Refer to the Best Execution Policy for venues considered by CommSec when executing orders. Recommendations, market prices and other information are supplied by a number of external data vendors. Specific disclosures for each external data vendor can be found here”.



The question you need to ask yourself is –“Based on past performances (as I mention in my previous post above where _- CommSec’s last call was as a *Strong Buy* back on 04 Jan 2021 – predicatbly the NCM SP then dropped from $28.14 to $23.60 on 05 Mar 2021_), how much credence do I place on the analysis “_NCM shares appear etc etc_”?.

Remember we don’t really know who came up with that analysis.

Had a Beginner partially based a decision to buy NCM on or just after 4/1/21 on that CommSec published analysis, they could have lost a large % of their ‘hard earned’.

*DISC - I Hold NCM - So DYOR*

Cheers.
DrB


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## rederob (1 January 2022)

I find your NCM example very confusing.
First, Commsec does not as a matter of course suggest TA is the basis of their buy/sell recommendations, as they synthesise information (as you note).  As a regular reader of Commsec's company reports the information they offer usually contains a future target price and, in the case of NCM, it's not currently within the regression envelope.
Second, Commsec's TA analysis (per your *first snapshot*) *is *accurate.  If it's not, then say what was wrong with it.
Third, while Commsec made a bad call on 4 January it was based on prices in the $26 range from the previous week due to end-year closures. Using TA in the Xmas/new year period must be about the worst time of the year one could imagine.
Fourth, when the CCI is around 100 (as it presently is), backtesting of NCM's price shows it seldom goes much higher before falling back (on a day basis), but you believe it "suggest(s) a continued uptrend". 
Fifth, it is not clear how you use MFI and CCI in tandem as the best buying opportunities in 2021 do not match what you state for the current situation.
Sixth, perhaps you meant you use a 100 day linear regression, as that is what your chart shows.  However, neither the 30 nor 100 day regressions have NCM in uptrend, so are you suggesting a counter-trend buy?

As you say, DYOR.


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## DrBourse (2 January 2022)

Sunday 2/1/22 7.29am

Hi Redrob,

A Happy and prosperous New Year to you too.

Not sure what your problem is M8, but you are obviously not reading my previous posts within this TA Forum.

I’m sorry that you find my NCM post confusing – happy to help you in any way I can.



_Firstly_ – Beginners usually take things “as quoted”, like the Commsec TA I mention above, I was only highlighting the fact that the TA was not initiated by Commsec.

I made *no *reference to any “buy/sell recommendations”, not sure why you would mention buy/sell.

_Second_ – We obviously have a different reading on that TA, bearing mind the SP drop, that TA was way off target.

_Third_ – thought we had established that it was a 3rd party call, not CommSec, or do you now feel that the garbage TA call was actually commsec’s – hmmmmmmmmmm.

Using TA in the Xmas/new year period works the same as any other time of year- It’s called a Contrarian approach, it just depends on the individuals knowledge of TA.

_Fourth_ – 200 or even 300 are quite often common levels for the CCI.

At 100 the CCI often invokes what is accepted as a “Significantly Higher High”.

Reading pages 108 & 109 may help you.

_Fifth_ -again I suggest you read pages 95, 108 & 109, as well as those, there are other examples within this forum and other ASF forums.

The CCI/MFI tandem approach works well, particularly in 2021 – once you understand how to read the signs.

_Six_ – I always use a 100 day Linear Regression, it does not always need to be in an uptrend, perhaps you should read pages 139 to 142.



_Finally_, Ahh Ha, a counter trend, now who would think that! – and how would anyone come to a conclusion like that?

Redrob, your attacks are becoming tiresome, if you are going to continue you will need to improve on your 6 point post performance.

I have no intention of explaining everything to you, the information you seek is all within the 3 DrB Forums.

However, here is one of the many tricks to the CCI/MFI combo – the CCI gives the early signal, but to proceed you need a confirming signal from the MFI.


Always happy to accept criticism from people that know what they are talking about, unfortunately you have a lot to learn.

DrB


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## divs4ever (2 January 2022)

most information  about companies on my two trading platforms  is supplied by third parties  , and therefore delayed ( and i am NOT talking twenty minutes ) , the  buy/sell ( and valuations ) should be taken  with some extra salt  , and you should AT LEAST  check the recent announcements ( last 3 months ) for recent activity  that might  change 'valuations '

 at best i would simply class them as guidance , even though the analyst at the TIME  they were done  , probably put in a lot of effort , and posted the outcomes to the  paying clients  , quickly .

 what might  interest novices  is to check back on the price action  and see if those recommendations  affected the price/volume  when they  were released to the top customers  ( did the 'smart money' see danger or opportunity )

 that would give some insight into how much  'big money' in sloshing around in the targeted share 

 being stale doesn't make it useless , but as long as you realize it is yesterday's news , you can judge if the 'smart money' let one fall through the cracks  , or milked it for all they could ( for example was it pumped before a cap. raise )


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## DrBourse (2 January 2022)

And here is another clue, look at what happened to the SP when the CCI gave its Entry Signal on 1/4/21, the CCI went on to a High of abt 186, (that's way above Rederobs CCI Min/Max 100) it then stayed high while the MFI rose to abt 66 then gave its first sell signal on 23/4/21.
Also note that the CCI on NCM hit well above approx 150 on abt 14 times in the last 12 mths (sorry to blow away your CCI 100 limit theory Rederob)

That’s a pretty reasonable trade IMO, that’s what can happen with the CCI SHH, it gets to that SHH then Stays Reasonably High, during that period is when the MFI comes into play.




Now have another look at the NCM Chart from 15/12/21 to 31/12/21, what do you all think NCM’s SP will do over the next week or so.

Now don’t you wish you had bought into NCM on say 17/12/21, in case you missed it Rederob that's getting pretty close to your Xmas New Year Danger Zone..

How are you doing Rederob, still with me, Huh.

_*Asking polite questions will get you a lot further than dropping snide remarks – perhaps you should try it sometime.*_

I just might drop another dozen or so clues into the workings of the CCI/MFI/LR/Gaps game, who knows.

Get off your butts and dig into TA yourselves, I will occasionally provide the entry level clues just to get you all started.

BUT, I will only post within the DrB Forums from here on, too many complaints abt me jamming up 'strictly Financially Based Forums', that way I won't ruffle too many precious feathers.

Cheers.

DrB


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## DrBourse (2 January 2022)

.


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## divs4ever (2 January 2022)

now early on in my investing adventure  ( say 2011 to 2015 ) NCM was seen by some as a proxy for the gold price  , is that still the case 

 some novices might be lulled into thinking NCM rises and falls  mostly on company performance 

 that trap is not exclusive to NCM , a share like QBE  also trades with an element of perceived economic risk 

 for the coming WEEK i see some pressure for NCM to edge  higher  , but suspect   a mid term trend to ease lower ( over the next two months )

 but take care 

 NCM has been known to 'brief financiers ' before


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## Greynomad99 (2 January 2022)

Interesting Dr B. I'm no fan of indicators as you probably know - I feel they just complicate further an already complex pastime. However, I've never looked at MFI and CCI together and it does seem to have something going for it. One of the problems with charting (and indicators) is that when you look at past movements you can often have your opinion influenced by peripherally being able to see where price subsequently went. The software I use (Optuma) enables you to pick a date and then it hides future data (so nothing to lead you) and you can then step the chart and indicators forward a day, week or month at a time to see how your prediction turns out.
I don't think I would ever rely solely on indicators (neither would you I suspect) but in conjunction with the tried and true pattern reading (broken trends, price channels etc) this MFI/CCI combination could be something I'll watch.
All the best for 2022 by the way!


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## DrBourse (2 January 2022)

Hi GN,

Happy & Prosperous New year to you & yours.

As a Technimental Trader I Prefer to Trade Financially Sound Stocks, that immediately reduces any Risk, Pullbacks will still happen, but if the FA is sound then the stock should recover. My Stock Selection is based on *60% Financial Analysis* and *40% Technical Analysis* - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria, then I do not bother with its TA (so PD’s are never on my Hit List) - Once I locate a Financially Sound Stock, I then proceed to look at its TA.
Even after the 60%/40% exercise, the CCI/MFI/LR process is still just a Minor part of the overall selection process, then I move on to the tried and true pattern reading (broken trends, price channels, candlesticks, gaps, triangles, etc)

The CCI/MFI combo seems to interest a lot of punters for some reason, but as mentioned above, nobody should rely on any One type of TA.

Yeah that 'Stepping the Chart' thing can be done with most Software Packages, just pick a stock, take the chart backwards 2 or 3 years, then work off the Right Hand Side of the Chart one forward click at a time (Dly, Wkly, Mthly or whatever), when doing that, waching the indicator 'end points' is interesting and mesmorising, I find thats the best way to 'Paper Trade' the CCI/MFI game.

So yes, as usual, we agree, relying on TA, or FA alone is a recipe for disaster, punters must learn to get their hands on all available info then they have to learn to 'Sift out the garbage', by using the widely used "Garbage Filter", it's usually located somewhere near the standard "Sheep Indicator" on all Software Progs.

Cheers M8
DrB


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## rederob (2 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Not sure what your problem is M8, but you are obviously not reading my previous posts within this TA Forum.



I commented because you presented *no evidence Commsec used TA* a for either their "moderate Buy" *Consensus *of 29 Dec 2021 or their *Strong Buy* back on 04 Jan 2021.
Given your thread is supposed to offer TA help, if you do not analyse the basis of Commsec's recommendations then readers have no idea what Commsec got wrong.


DrBourse said:


> I made *no *reference to any “buy/sell recommendations”, not sure why you would mention buy/sell.



How can that be so when you said this:


DrBourse said:


> CommSec’s last call was as a *Strong Buy* back on 04 Jan 2021






DrBourse said:


> Using TA in the Xmas/new year period works the same as any other time of year- It’s called a Contrarian approach, it just depends on the individuals knowledge of TA.



I call that BS.  The whole point of TA is use indicators that work.  A contrary approach implies a deliberate breach of the reason for using TA in the first place.  Contrarian approaches have meaning in Fundamental Analysis because while one might be betting against a trend, the bet is instead on cycle repeating or an emerging trend unfolding. 


DrBourse said:


> _Fourth_ – 200 or even 300 are quite often common levels for the CCI.



If that were the case it would show in your posted chart for NCM.  200 was breached only once in 2021 and the last time 300 was breached was in 2003.


DrBourse said:


> At 100 the CCI often invokes what is accepted as a “Significantly Higher High”.



Not according to any backtest of NCM's chart which shows declines are as likely as continuations.


DrBourse said:


> The CCI/MFI tandem approach works well, particularly in 2021 – once you understand how to read the signs.



Technical indicators should be clear and you should have explained what signs you used rather than try to bury your answer in some mystery.


DrBourse said:


> _Six_ – I always use a 100 day Linear Regression, it does not always need to be in an uptrend, perhaps you should read pages 139 to 142.



I used what you stated, which is clearly different, viz:


DrBourse said:


> I rely heavily on a 3 indicators combination, a CCI (10) and an MFI (30) below the chart, and *a 30 day Linear Regression* on the chart.






DrBourse said:


> Redrob, your attacks are becoming tiresome, if you are going to continue you will need to improve on your 6 point post performance.



You thread is supposed to offer *help*, yet all I have seen are contradictions and obfuscations.


DrBourse said:


> Always happy to accept criticism from people that know what they are talking about, unfortunately you have a lot to learn.



Just do what you say you intend to, and try to address legitimate questions.  You continue to do yourself a disservice by your condescending attitude to posters who query you.

I won't comment on your later post as I backtested what you were trying to show and it made your claims look more like cherrypicking than TA.


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## DaveTrade (2 January 2022)

In the markets there is no such thing as black and white, everything is grey, it's our job to determine if each thing is a lighter shade or darker shade of grey. When someone implies black or white in the they express themselves it leads to misunderstandings.


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## frugal.rock (2 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> My Stock Selection is based on *60% Financial Analysis* and *40% Technical Analysis* - If a stock does not meet my FA criteria, then I do not bother with its TA (so PD’s are never on my Hit List)



I agree overall with this concept generally, however I sometimes skip over the FA, as a quick run with the herd can be fun and profitable. 
Thanks for your efforts Dr B. 👍


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## DrBourse (5 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> And here is another clue, look at what happened to the SP when the CCI gave its Entry Signal on 1/4/21, the CCI went on to a High of abt 186, (that's way above Rederobs CCI Min/Max 100) it then stayed high while the MFI rose to abt 66 then gave its first sell signal on 23/4/21.
> Also note that the CCI on NCM hit well above approx 150 on abt 14 times in the last 12 mths (sorry to blow away your CCI 100 limit theory Rederob)
> 
> That’s a pretty reasonable trade IMO, that’s what can happen with the CCI SHH, it gets to that SHH then Stays Reasonably High, during that period is when the MFI comes into play.
> ...



For anyone that’s interested, listed below is a copy of my NCM Chart from the post dated 31/12/21


The CCI SHH (pages 108 & 109) is still in play as shown in the NCM Chart today 5/1/22 below.


The CCI remains High & the MFI is still rising from a relatively Low position, so the trade is still running…..AND, as you can see the CCI DOES OFTEN Remain High after reaching that SHH while the MFI continues to rise, as shown in the 2 examples in the NCM Charts 1/4/21 to 23/4/21, AND within that NASTY Xmas/New Year Period 15/12 to 5/1/22 that some posters avoid.

Xmas/New Year Gremlins are a figment of the imagination.


The 1st Exit Signal will come from the CCI, BUT we need to wait for the MFI to confirm that Exit – similar to the signals given back 18/10/21 & 27/10/21.

I will hold NCM until I see the appropriate Exit Signals, and even then, I may continue to hold, as there is other TA that suggest a “longer term” hold - *however*, I have my Sell ready to process just in case one of those Xmas Gremlins lob.

Will post again as the situation evolves.

MY ANALYSIS IS NEVER AN EXCUSE TO ENTER A TRADE - REMEMBER TO DYOR

Cheers.
DrB


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## rederob (5 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> For anyone that’s interested, listed below is a copy of my NCM Chart from the post dated 31/12/21
> View attachment 135261
> 
> The CCI SHH (pages 108 & 109) is still in play as shown in the NCM Chart today 5/1/22 below.
> ...



I note you ignored the points I raised.   How does that sit with your apparent desire to "help" others?

If you wanted to post about NCM there is a thread for that.

From the above it appears you have no actual rules for trading as you are happy to ignore the settings you outline.  If there is a reason for that, how is is consistent with using technical analysis?


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## DrBourse (5 January 2022)

Numerous posters follow my posts as I explain to them what I look for in TA, My posts are about my Trading Rules.

Nope, No thread for NCM TA - I tried to post TA into the FMG, CSL & MND Financial Only Forums, too many complaints abt TA invading the established FA threads, so posting here avoids upsetting ppl.

Beginners are not so much concerned about what stock code I am using, it's about them understanding my use of TA.

Really beginning to tire of these useless discussions with you rederob - don't wanna play anymore.


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## DrBourse (6 January 2022)

9am Friday 6/1/22.


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## DrBourse (6 January 2022)

9.06am Friday 6/1/22.


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## DrBourse (6 January 2022)

Remember - the CCI gives the Signal & the MFI gives the Confirmation.

That Rule works for Entry & Exit.

If the MFI gives an Entry or Exit Signal B4 the CCI, I consider that MFI Signal to be a "Warning to Watch, while having my finger on the SELL Button".

With this System of CCI + MFI I never expect to "Enter at the Low Point, or to Exit at the High Point", as I always need the 1st Signal 2B Comfirmed, and that is usually 1 or 2 days after the Low Point, and 1 or 3 days after the High Point, it's just a Safety Mechanism that suits me.

With todays examples, with the CCI having already given it's Signal, I am now, also watching the Candle Formation (pages 3 & 5).

A High Risk Trade would be to just trade withe the CCI, plus the other standard TA Tools - Bit too risky for my style.


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## Greynomad99 (6 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> .



Question Dr B - you use 10 period CCI and 30 period MFI with daily charts. In your opinion, how do these indicators perform better/worse/same on weekly charts and what period settings would you use with weekly?


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## DrBourse (6 January 2022)

Hi GN,
My settings of 10 & 30 work reliably on any Chart, be it Tick, Minute, Dly, Wkly, Mthly or Yearly.
It just takes a bit of time to understand the Signals.

Using a Tick Cht, for example, the signals are changing with every Tick, so if you want to act on those signals you need to be *VERY VERY QUICK*, & the Signals from the Tick & Minute Charts tend to be a bit "Whippy".
Using a Minute Cht, for example, the signals are changing every Minute, so if you want to act on those signals you need to be _VERY_ Quick.
Using a Dly, Wkly, Mthly or Yearly Cht, for example, the signals and Candlesticks are changing at a reasonable speed that is easier to understand, so if you want to act on those signals you don't need to rush any decisions, aLSO, the Signals from the Tick & Minute Charts tend to be a bit "Whippy", It's probably just my age M8, can't handle anything too fast these days, I would prob Trip over the rapid fire signals!

Tick Trading is way too fast for most people, tried it a long time ago, settled on the Daily Charts for Indicators & Candlesticks - although OCCASIONALLY I will swithc over to a "3 Day Minute Chart", that will give me a look into the "Candlestick Addition & Construction" (pages 3 & 4).


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## DrBourse (6 January 2022)

GN, many years ago I met a "Husband & Wife team" that tick traded, they each had a Computer with 3 VDU's each, they were quite successful, One would Buy, the other would be responsible for the Sell, they switched the workload on a regular basis, weekly from memory, lost track of them over the years.


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## Greynomad99 (6 January 2022)

Thanks Dr B


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## DrBourse (6 January 2022)

sometimes, when sitting and waiting for the Confirming MFI Signal I will switch to dear-ole' Commsuc Charts and have a look at the "WILL%R and MFI" indicator combinations, just to see where those Indicators 'End Points' are in relation to The Trading Views "CCI & MFI"  Indicators, occasionally the WILL%R will move a bit quicker, not often, only very occasionally.
Nothing much happening with either the CCI, MFI or the WILL%R.


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## rederob (6 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Numerous posters follow my posts as I explain to them what I look for in TA, My posts are about my Trading Rules.



I showed a number of your contradictions and that you chose to break your rules without explanation.  I am trying to discover your rationale, but you get exceptionally defensive and choose to deride me, which is not especially helpful in anyone's book.


DrBourse said:


> Nope, No thread for NCM TA - I tried to post TA into the FMG, CSL & MND Financial Only Forums, too many complaints abt TA invading the established FA threads, so posting here avoids upsetting ppl.



Well this is ASF and nobody cares if its TA or FA in the stock thread because that's exactly why they exist.


DrBourse said:


> Beginners are not so much concerned about what stock code I am using, it's about them understanding my use of TA.



I get that.
At no time did you explain the purpose of TA, or am I mistaken, given you appear to think it also allows contrarian actions?


DrBourse said:


> Really beginning to tire of these useless discussions with you rederob - don't wanna play anymore.



It's useless to you, but I am trying to understand how you think you can help beginners when you avoid responding to the points I made.
You keep using NCM as an example but never showed the original technical analysis from Commsec, so there is no basis for what you are doing except to explain your own "system."   Again, set up a thread for that, as many others at ASF have done.

What in your opinion was the technical analysis that Commsec got wrong?  Their later report suggested *caution *so what do you offer that suggests their call was a poor one?


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## DrBourse (7 January 2022)

*Unwanted or Annoying Posts* can be Removed OR Hidden, making reading and understanding a "Chain of Posts" much easier.
As shown below, Use the "Search" facility, Top Right of the ASF Screens, and search for 'ignore', then read the first 2 posts for the explanation.




This process can easily be reversed later, if you need to.


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## DrBourse (7 January 2022)

Today is Friday 7/1/22 6.16am.
Just before close 6/1/22 the MFI gave it's Exit Signal.
Lesson Completed.


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## Greynomad99 (7 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Today is Friday 7/1/22 6.16am.
> Just before close 6/1/22 the MFI gave it's Exit Signal.
> Lesson Completed.
> 
> View attachment 135338



Playing the 'Devils Advocate', with a daily chart (unless you have live data) you wouldn't get that signal until the market closed - and in any event as it closed on its lows, you would be out at the bottom yesterday. While gold lost 2% in the US overnight the XAO futures here are green and NCM's indicative open is up 1.2%. All I'm saying is that yesterday could have been oversold and prices will pick up today - so I'm not sure I don't see jumping out of NCM at close yesterday as premature. Anyway, just an observation - and today should be interesting as Fridays are often unrewarding.


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## rederob (7 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> *Unwanted or Annoying Posts* can be Removed OR Hidden, making reading and understanding a "Chain of Posts" much easier.
> As shown below, Use the "Search" facility, Top Right of the ASF Screens, and search for 'ignore', then read the first 2 posts for the explanation.
> 
> View attachment 135336
> ...



So you have no intention of honesty in your thread else you would have actually responded to legitimate questions posed.
The fact you had to block me suggests you are disingenuous as I called out several comments you made, and that was your response.

I never had a problem with the information you offered, nor your chart of NCM, as there are hundreds of different trading strategies that can be successfully deployed, and a number of them are on show at ASF .

But if you are going to criticise other TA without explaining where or why it was wrong then we learn nothing.
I toyed with an NCM chart using just one technical indicator and got clearer results with just a few simple trading rules.  Using TSI crossings on an hourly basis gives pretty much the same result as your multiple indicators.


----------



## DrBourse (7 January 2022)

Hi GN,

As usual we are on the same page.

I agree with what you say, and yes, I have access to live data.

However, in my defence, I would like to say that the recent NCM posts were directed to Beginners, and have been about ‘explaining how I read certain indicators’, which I feel I have done.

Another Trader told me he sold just above yesterday’s 1st low, he was obviously a bit smarter than me.

Each individual must have a plan for Buying & Selling that suits their Level of Tolerance.


----------



## Rabbithop (7 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Hi GN,
> 
> As usual we are on the same page.
> 
> ...



Thumb up for your last sentence. 
What's that saying..Trade with your Head not your heart..


----------



## Rabbithop (7 January 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Thumb up for your last sentence.
> What's that saying..Trade with your Head not your heart..



Just borrowing Skate quote...

Conviction
A person with a conviction is a hard person to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.


----------



## Greynomad99 (7 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Hi GN,
> 
> As usual we are on the same page.
> 
> ...



While a bit of the topic of indicators, one of the principles of trading is to not trade (or be aware of the risks if you do) in a downtrend. NCM has been in an unbroken technical weekly downtrend for 18 months and as such any trades during that time are 'swimming upstream'. Some may look at the chart and say there have been uptrends, but not so when you consider a trend needing to play out over 12 weeks and NCM's last attempt was only 11 weeks. Current moves suggest an uptrend might be on the cards if it can get above $26.25.
Is there any appreciable difference in your CCI/MFI signals during uptrends and downtrends?
Keep safe.


----------



## DrBourse (7 January 2022)

GN, The CCI/MFI produces results, or End Points, based on the term of each indicator, so for my CCI it's formula is based on the last 10 days, and for the MFI the last 30 days.
The CCI 10 reflects 'knee jerk actions' by punters over the previous 10 days trading, and the MFI30 reflects a longer term, more sober, and a longer average result, as Volume trends tend to react slower than conventional ST Indicators - so the CCI/MFI combination provides me with a Balanced Indicator End Point outcome.

Idon't usually trade a Severe Dramatic Linear Regression Downtrend - in the NCM example above, the LR Trend is only Slightly down over the past 100 days, and the ST Trend for the term of my above example, is UP.

So IMO, with my knowledge of TA, I am happy to trade NCM based on it's current 100 day, slightly down almost flat Linear Regression TA.

AND

You asked "Is there any appreciable difference in your CCI/MFI signals during uptrends and downtrends?" - _No difference for me personally_, happy to trade some downtrends, it just depends on how I read the TA at that time, others will obviously disagree.

Someone recently inferred that the word contrarian only referred to Financial Analysis, BUT most dictionaries suggest it means "opposing or rejecting popular opinion or current practice, *and/or* a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion, especially in stock exchange dealings", that pretty well sums me up, *never accept the Norm and always push the Commonly Accepted Parameters* - Always accepting the Norm will turn you into a Lemming, and we all know the story on what happens to them.
Cheers M8


----------



## rederob (8 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Someone recently inferred that the word contrarian only referred to Financial Analysis, BUT most dictionaries suggest it means "opposing or rejecting popular opinion or current practice, *and/or* a person who opposes or rejects popular opinion, especially in stock exchange dealings"



You are very good at avoiding the point made.
People use TA to trade because the system/s they use have been tested to give them a statistical edge.
A contrarian approach to that means rejecting that edge and gambling on a whim.  In other words you are *not *using TA for the trade.

As @Greynomad99 pointed out, buying into a downtrend is not a typical recipe for success and is also contrary to your three indicator approach.

If you are proposing this thread for *beginners *then why are you using examples which break your own rules?  Surely there are better and safer examples.


----------



## DrBourse (10 January 2022)

Beginners need an Advantage.

As a Beginner you need to understand the Original Parameters of your chosen Indicators.

_*HOWEVER*_,

If, as a beginner, you continue to accept the *normal, tried & true original TA settings for indicators*, you will always be one of herd, and that means you are part of a Large Group of Punters all trying to do the same thing at the same time.

You will never have an Advantage over the Sheep because they are all reading the same old normal tried & true settings.

You will always be a Sheep and you will eventually turn into a Lemming.

There is “No Advantage” in being part of the Herd.

The only Advantage you can gain in TA is to develop your own Contrarian Views.

*You have to develop a way of getting TA Signals from your Indicators BEFORE the Sheep realise what is going on.*

You must learn to deviate from the norm, Back-test everything (as I mention in page 36), Start with Normal Accepted Settings, then experiment with those settings or combinations.

Remember that all indicators were developed with a basic set of parameters, now there are dozens of alternative approaches and interpretations from all over the world, you just need to understand the ORIGINAL parameters of you chosen Indicators, then ‘tweak’ those setting just to see what happens.
For example, most Sheep use a 50 or 200 Simple Moving Average, perhaps you could try 45 & 190 WEIGHTED Moving Average (pages 50, 80 & 81)


*It’s not easy, it’s not meant 2B easy, if it was easy everybody would be doing it and then you would just end up in amongst a Bigger Herd of Sheep.*



More info to follow in coming weeks for those of you that are interested, I will drop a post abt Scanners that may help you with that process of experimentation.



Obviously it does not matter what I post as there will always be ‘Uneducated point scorers crawling out of the woodwork’ – I just ignore them, as Beginners you may need to do the same.

Educated Opinions and Sensible Questions, particularly from beginners are always welcome, either here in the forums, or via Direct Conversation/Direct Messaging (simply click on my avitar then click “Start Conversation”).





I only visit here when time permits, usually once or twice a week.

Cheers.
DrB


----------



## Greynomad99 (10 January 2022)

Sheep almost always get shorn - and then they are sent for the chop (literally!)


----------



## DrBourse (12 January 2022)

Another area that Beginners should take note of is the Colour of each individual Candle.

Beginners need to find out why different providers show different coloured candles that are based on the same data.


*The 2 snapshots below are of FMG 15/9/20 to 19/11/20 incl.*


This Snapshot is from Trading View Charts.
It shows 28 RED Candles & 20 GREEN Candles.




This next Snapshot is from Commsec Charts.
It shows 25 RED Candles & 22 GREEN Candles, and just as importantly Commsec show no Candle for 16/11/20 (the 4th Candle from the right).




The problem only arises, *IF,* you are using Candlesticks as part of your TA.

You might think the Commsec Right Hand Side Candle adds weight to your TA.

*However*

Looking at the Trading View Right Hand Side Candle, note that it gives the exact opposite signal.

Now I realise that the Candle in question is not an Earth-Shattering Signal, but sometimes they are.



*I repeat - Beginners Should Question Everything.*


----------



## DrBourse (12 January 2022)

As a Follow-up to my last post, and to emphasize the differences, the Snapshots below creates a bigger dilema when reading TA.
Both Snapshot are of NCM @ COB 12/1/22.




Which chart are you going to believe - The Comsec Chart GREEN Candle looks like a Positive Signal.
The Trading View Chart RED Candle conveys a totally Negative Signal.

The 'Gap Up' created by todays Candle provides 2 Support Lines, the reading of the Commsec Chart suggests further Uptrend,
BUT
The reading of the Trading View Chart suggests that the next move is DOWN.


Beginners Beware.


----------



## Rabbithop (12 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> As a Follow-up to my last post, and to emphasize the differences, the Snapshots below creates a bigger dilema when reading TA.
> Both Snapshot are of NCM @ COB 12/1/22.
> 
> View attachment 135624
> ...



Hi Dr, I follow Commsec's chart every day. Where do you get the Trading chart?  Can see both charts showing 2 different prediction, it's quite confusing n scary.


----------



## DrBourse (13 January 2022)

Not all that scary M8.

I just want to make sure beginners are aware of the differences that can be produced on different Charts, from different platforms, that is, how your software provider presents Candlestick Colours.

And your choice of how your chart is presented to you are crucial (eg Calendar Days, or Week Days etc)

Once beginners understand how their Candlesticks are presented, they can adjust their personal interpretations to suit their needs.

Some Software Providers calculate a days Candle wholly on a days “Course of Trades” – Others start their calculations from the previous day’s Closing figure, or from the previous days High, that concept is what beginners need to understand.

In yesterdays (above) examples, Commsec includes the previous day’s Closing figure, and Trading View calculates the day’s Candle wholly on the days “Course of Trades”.

Personally, I would never use Commsec Charts – don’t like their Candlesticks, and there are often candles missing altogether.

===========================================================

Missing Candles leads me onto a Similar, BUT Different problem, that you should be aware of, something I refer to as “Phantom Divergences”.

Missing candles produce “incorrect indicator End Point presentation”, particularly on ST settings.

Pages 145 to 148 explain the “Phantom Divergences” problem.








Cheers.
DrB


----------



## DrBourse (18 January 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Hi Dr, I follow Commsec's chart every day. Where do you get the Trading chart?  Can see both charts showing 2 different prediction, it's quite confusing n scary.



Hi Rabbit,
Sorry M8, just looked back on a few posts and noticed that I did not reply to your Question - " Where do you get the Trading chart?".
Try this link   https://www.tradingview.com  .

The Basic (FREE) version is OK - I prefer the Premium + Live Data.


----------



## DrBourse (20 January 2022)

_*I posted the following into the NCM - Newcrest Mining forum a few minutes ago.*_
*For transparency, I am reposting it here within the DrB TA forum.*

"Hi rederob.
You posted the following on 7/1/22 where you asked "*Why he (DrB) used a Daily Chart when an hourly chart seemed to give a better picture of short term trends*", Not sure why you would think that I don't use shorter term charts, everybody uses shorter term charts, that's just part of the Basic TA Training.




Well M8, I answered your question 2 days before you asked it, see my post (below) dated 5/1/22.




Now you can see some of what you are missing out on.
had you not been so agressive you may still be in the loop, and maybe you would learn some alternative approaches that may help your current trading practices.

Promise to behave yourself and maybe I could hit the "unignore" button.

Cheers,
DrB"


----------



## rederob (23 January 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Now you can see some of what you are missing out on.
> had you not been so agressive you may still be in the loop, and maybe you would learn some alternative approaches that may help your current trading practices.
> 
> Promise to behave yourself and maybe I could hit the "unignore" button.




I made valid comments about your inability to to show what Commsec got wrong, your BS idea that TA can be used for contrarianism, and the fact that you don't even follow your own trading rules, amongst other things.  Your idea that I was *aggressive *towards you exists only in your mind.

That said, I have not seen any evidence from you that you understand how people learn and would propose that anyone wanting to practise the many things you cover should consider instead going to any of the thousands of  great YouTube videos that explain *purpose, rationale and deployment* in trading rather than just what the indicator means.

An earlier post from @tech/a in this thread which I gold starred summarised my thoughts.  As you may have may have discovered, I don't need you to "unignore" me as I can post as I wish unless @Joe Blow decides otherwise.


----------



## DrBourse (24 January 2022)

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, I will visit ASF every so often just to check for any *“questions from beginners”.*

There is no point in me posting anything new.

Cheers.

DrB.


----------



## DrBourse (26 April 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Another area that Beginners should take note of is the Colour of each individual Candle.
> 
> Beginners need to find out why different providers show different coloured candles that are based on the same data.
> 
> ...




Another example of the above problem.
The 2 charts below are of the the same stock - The stock name is irrelevant.
This 1st chart of from Commsec today at about 10.50am.
Take Note the last 2 Red Candles.



This 2nd chart of from Trading View today, also at about 10.50am.



The last 2 Commsec's chart candlesticks suggest caution.
BUT Trading Views last 2 candlesticks are much more positive.

Beginners need to find out why different providers show different coloured candles that are based on the same data.

Cheers.
DrB


----------



## DrBourse (4 May 2022)

HVN TA is looking interesting atm.

IV is abt $5.39, SP is now $4.99.

Candle for 3/5/22 was what’s called a “Piercing”.




HVN’s CCI has formed a “Double Bottom”, and it has just crossed up over the -100 O’Sold line.

HVN’s MFI is very similar to the CCI, a DB & both rising from O’Sold Territory.

HVN could also be on the way to forming another H&S Formation.




These are just my personal observations, they should not be interpreted as any form of recommendation – Remember to DYOR.


Cheers

DrB


----------



## rnr (4 May 2022)

You could also add some classic "type A" bullish divergence into the mix as well.

Cheers, Rob


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## Rabbithop (4 May 2022)

Would HVN hit $4.50? Not Shareholder but on my watchlist. It would be interesting if it happens. $5 was the norm.


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## rcw1 (15 July 2022)

Hello DrBourse, greynomad99 and Rabbithop
Been a good while, hoping I find you all well.

DrBourse
Recall some TA work you had performed on LYC. Hoping you can assist rcw1 again in this regard.  Be good to swap notes …  again.  ADR’s been kind to rcw1 … acquired heaps more knowledge; most interesting beast.

Rabbithop
Been trading LYC heavily  … Suppose nothing has really changed with this stock from rcw1 perspective, other than a stronger SP
ha ha ha and more coin needed to effect that purpose, kindly conduct your own due diligence 

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Rabbithop (15 July 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Hello DrBourse, greynomad99 and Rabbithop
> Been a good while, hoping I find you all well.
> 
> DrBourse
> ...



Hope you are keeping well row1, GN n Dr too.
 I would be better once the 3 bathrooms n the kitchen complete the renovation.
 LYC was good for my Trading but had since stop just keeping on watch list so is HVN hoping for a low 3.50, its hanging at 3.90plus for days or weeks. More into PLS on these shaky days.


----------



## divs4ever (15 July 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Hello DrBourse, greynomad99 and Rabbithop
> Been a good while, hoping I find you all well.
> 
> DrBourse
> ...



 HVN ?? ( i hold  ) NORMALLY this faces   downward  pressure ( even after the div. is declared  .. but not yet ex-div. )  am comfortably bulked up on that  BUT if a two handle came along i might reach again from that calculator .

 LYC ( i do not hold ) is  currently in the mother of all storms  it's major competitors  and controlled by China  , possibly facing an accelerated trade war ( potentially awesome for LYC ) but also a potential global meltdown  where nobody in the West can afford stuff  with fancy magnets  ( whether it is wind turbines  of  expensive electronics )  AND because of past processing of REEs  ( by others ) has a bad reputation  by those thinking ESG .

 ( almost bought into this years back , but smelled the 'activist problems ' and backed away )

 take care  ..


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## Rabbithop (15 July 2022)

divs4ever said:


> HVN ?? ( i hold  ) NORMALLY this faces   downward  pressure ( even after the div. is declared  .. but not yet ex-div. )  am comfortably bulked up on that  BUT if a two handle came along i might reach again from that calculator .
> 
> LYC ( i do not hold ) is  currently in the mother of all storms  it's major competitors  and controlled by China  , possibly facing an accelerated trade war ( potentially awesome for LYC ) but also a potential global meltdown  where nobody in the West can afford stuff  with fancy magnets  ( whether it is wind turbines  of  expensive electronics )  AND because of past processing of REEs  ( by others ) has a bad reputation  by those thinking ESG .
> 
> ...




" LYC ( i do not hold ) is  currently in the mother of all storms  it's major competitors  and controlled by China  , possibly facing an accelerated trade war ( potentially awesome for LYC ) but also a potential global meltdown  where nobody in the West can afford stuff  with fancy magnets  ( whether it is wind turbines  of  expensive electronics )  AND because of past processing of REEs  ( by others ) has a bad reputation  by those thinking ESG" .

 ( almost bought into this years back , but smelled the 'activist problems ' and backed away )

I am with you..thats my reason for the emoji...


----------



## rcw1 (16 July 2022)

divs4ever said:


> HVN ?? ( i hold  ) NORMALLY this faces   downward  pressure ( even after the div. is declared  .. but not yet ex-div. )  am comfortably bulked up on that  BUT if a two handle came along i might reach again from that calculator .
> 
> LYC ( i do not hold ) is  currently in the mother of all storms  it's major competitors  and controlled by China  , possibly facing an accelerated trade war ( potentially awesome for LYC ) but also a potential global meltdown  where nobody in the West can afford stuff  with fancy magnets  ( whether it is wind turbines  of  expensive electronics )  AND because of past processing of REEs  ( by others ) has a bad reputation  by those thinking ESG .
> 
> ...



Good morning divs4ever,
Thanks for your response.  Some matters for due consideration.  

For mine, LYC is miles ahead / light years … in front of its competitors outside China.  

Structure/knowledge/credibility and ability to satisfy demand - all well in front.    US defence contract -   About 420 kg of REE for every F-35 fighter jet and REE essential for other US military purposes. Hence a requirement to cement market independent from China.  

The Malaysian ‘activist issues’ are nowhere near as problematic or of concern as in the past.

Some light reading 

8 July 2022:








						Rare earths in Australia must be about more than mining | The Strategist
					

Last week, ASPI researcher Albert Zhang shone a spotlight on a sophisticated Chinese Communist Party information campaign targeting rare earths and Australian company Lynas. This research has powerful implications for those policymakers seeking to create ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				




1 May 2022:








						‘Times when I put my head on the desk’: Lynas CEO goes from hard times to boomtime
					

Australia-listed Lynas – the only major producer of rare earths outside China – has known more hard times than most. But now rare earths are back in hot demand amid the global push to cut carbon emissions.




					www.smh.com.au
				




18 April 2021:








						The new U.S. plan to rival China and end cornering of market in rare earth metals
					

The US has long relied on China for rare earth metals, but domestic supply chains are being pursued as climate and technology investments increase under Biden.




					www.cnbc.com
				




How do we use REE:  https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-do-we-use-rare-earth-elements

Have a very nice weekend.
Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## DrBourse (16 July 2022)

Hi rcw1,

I have not paid any attention to LYC since Early April 22 as it was obviously heading down from that point onwards.

LYC’s movements since 6/4/22 have been a bit hard to trade IMO.

LYC’s current IV Range is $6.66 to $5.59 (the Grey Area on my charts) – as you prob know I prefer to trade stocks when they are below their apparent IV.

LYC’s Current Trend is DOWN, I would expect a ST Uptrend to abt $8.60, followed by more Downtrend till it hits the $5.00 area.

So IMO @ $8.60 LYC is currently Overbought and is still a bit Expensive, I would put LYC back onto my watchlists when it hits abt $5.00.

Way too many External influences on Rare Earths ATM for my liking.








The next Chart shows that the CCI & MFI Indicators are still not very happy, at $8.60 they *may* look a little better, but not enough for me to be interested in LYC.





LYC’s Financials are due to be released late 18/7/22, if those Financials “Stack Up” then the current Downtrend may start to reverse – *However, *IMO LYC’s IV Range will more than likely drop even further than current Range – probably to $4.00 to $5.00- IMO most punters will be thinking the same way.




The last few Announcements from LYC on 19/1/22, 1/3/22, 12/4/22 & 14/6/22 were not well received by the LYC Faithful.

Cheers M8.


----------



## rcw1 (16 July 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Hi rcw1,
> 
> I have not paid any attention to LYC since Early April 22 as it was obviously heading down from that point onwards.
> 
> ...



Thanks DrBourse, rcw1 will explore further tonight.  Appreciate your comments.  kind regards rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop (16 July 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Thanks DrBourse, rcw1 will explore further tonight.  Appreciate your comments.  kind regards rcw1



I think I stopped LYC around end of April/ begining of May. Infact had outstanding buy at $5, didn't eventuate n expired. Still keeping an eye on it. I don't intend to hold it for long term.


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## DrBourse (18 July 2022)

rcw.
Looks as though the LYC faithful are not too happy with this mornings "_same old bland announcement_".
LYC punters need some *New Positive News*, not just the same old rubbish they have been dishing up lately.
Time will tell where LYC goes from here onwards, prob down IMO.
B careful M8.
DrB


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## DrBourse (29 August 2022)

Hi Rabbit & Farm,

I posted this a few minutes ago, not sure where it went, Cyberspace I guess, so reposting it here.

*Suggest Caution over the next few weeks* - IMO, XJO is heading for a Double Bottom at about the 6400 region - Most stocks should follow that ST Pullback.
Best to Keep your Powder DRY in the ST.
View attachment 146063

Might also mention that IMO Most Stocks are Within or Below their IV Ranges ATM.
Cheers
DrB


----------



## Rabbithop (29 August 2022)

DrBourse said:


> rcw.
> Looks as though the LYC faithful are not too happy with this mornings "_same old bland announcement_".
> LYC punters need some *New Positive News*, not just the same old rubbish they have been dishing up lately.
> Time will tell where LYC goes from here onwards, prob down IMO.
> ...



Keeping my eye in between 7 to 8.


----------



## rcw1 (29 August 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Keeping my eye in between 7 to 8.



Good afternoon Rabbithop
Kinda expected worse today re LYC.  Not yet anyways.  Minute chart keeping rcw1 hopping (pardon the pun ha ha ha ha)

Holding

Kind regards
rcw1


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## DrBourse (19 September 2022)

For todays “useless bit of Info”, I respectfully submit the following TA example.

Stock = PLL.

In particular I refer to 2 very important Candle Patterns – Namely “The Piercing, and The Kicking”, both of which are thankfully part of the Trading View Platform.

*To elaborate *







Those two are a minor part of my overall TA process, the signals are obvious, as shown in the Chart for PLL (below), both work well as Entry Points as described above, AND when Reversed they also work as Exit Signals.




Both P & K work well within ST Uptrends for Entry’s, & in ST Downtrends for Exits.

To qualify the above sentence, I will add that the degree of Uptrend/Downtrend must be applied to each “P & K” Signal, that is, a shallow or flat trend would need to be watched daily and would not carry much weight IMO, on the other hand a rapid rise in the ST Trend would probably run for a longer term (as shown in the chart above).

Then to qualify further I always take the CCI & MFI signals into the equation, note the “late Feb/early March” CCI Double Bottom, and the +ive signals on both the CCI & MFI in the days after the “P & K” were presented to us. (refer to pages 95, and 108-109, and 139-142).

That’s enough inside info from me for today – might offer some more insights in my world of TA at a later date. (had a bit of spare time today)

Hope the beginners can follow my train of thought – happy to answer Q’s when I lob here next time.

As usual, time 4 me to crawl back into the Cave.

Cheers
DrB


----------



## DrBourse (19 September 2022)

The following example shows when to be cautious with a Bullish Piercing Signal, note the CCI & MFI Signals in the few days after the "P".


----------



## DrBourse (19 September 2022)

Here is an example of a recent Bullish Piercing Signal that I IGNORED.



Can you see why I ignored the signal ?



Cheers


----------



## DrBourse (19 September 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon Rabbithop
> Kinda expected worse today re LYC.  Not yet anyways.  Minute chart keeping rcw1 hopping (pardon the pun ha ha ha ha)
> 
> Holding
> ...



Hi rabbit & rcw1,
LYC approaching a ST Buy Zone - not enough signals yet - it's just a watch & wait situation atm - if and when I do enter it will only be a very ST Trade.


----------



## DrBourse (20 September 2022)

And here is another example of when to avoid the P & K Candle Patterns.


As you can see ANN (ANSLY on theOTC as an ADR) is a very confused stock.


----------



## DrBourse (29 September 2022)

For those of you interested in Candlesticks, the following chart of the XJO is a great example of what is known as a “BENCHMARK CANDLE, & SECONDARY BENCHMARK CANDLES”.




The following pages 197 to 199 explain how to read the “Benchmark”.






I will add that the 3 Day Rule seems to be stretching out to 4 or 5 Days since late 2019, our economic circumstances have changed dramatically over the past couple of years, and so have some of the Commonly Accepted Parameters for TA Subjects like Indicators etc.

Cheers.
DrB


----------



## DrBourse (3 October 2022)

DrBourse said:


> Hi Rabbit & Farm,
> 
> I posted this a few minutes ago, not sure where it went, Cyberspace I guess, so reposting it here.
> 
> ...



As a follow-up to my call on 29/8/22 for theXJO Chart, the following Chart comfirmed my call.


Anyone out there game enough to make a call on "where to next for the XJO".
I have my own opinion on what will happen next, but I am interested in what you think.
Cheers.
DrB


----------



## divs4ever (3 October 2022)

yes  , UP  and for all the very worst reasons  , especially considering this is the day before RBA rates day ( and potentially the last rate move for this calendar year )

 however i wonder if this is any more than a blip ( or manipulation ) in a major trend


----------



## Rabbithop (3 October 2022)

DrBourse said:


> As a follow-up to my call on 29/8/22 for theXJO Chart, the following Chart comfirmed my call.
> View attachment 147604
> 
> Anyone out there game enough to make a call on "where to next for the XJO".
> ...



Hi Dr. I am not game to make a call. Tues maybe be another blood bath day for us unless tonight Monday, DJ do a high jump (Fri was a big drop of 500 pts)


----------



## DrBourse (21 October 2022)

This XJO Chart is a pretty good example of how the Benchmark Candlestick Formation works by providing Upper, Middle, & Lower Sup/Res Lines.


----------



## DrBourse (5 November 2022)

Could be something brewing with* LNK.*......
Not much in the way of announcement updates.......AND, Personally, I'm not a fan of LNK - *BUT *- for the devoted LNK Punters, there are Lots of ST TA signals appearing out of nowhere.......
_*For example :-*_
Higher Highs, Higher Lows, Flagpole & Pennant, Rising Triangle, Piercing Candle Formation, Containment Candles Breakout,
All those TA Signals (and a few others) are explained in previous pages within this "DrB TA Help for Beginners" Forum.
ST TA Points to abt $4.00, LT could be much higher if favourable Announcements lob.

A Problem TA Signal is that Large Gap Down on 13/9/22 which produces a Minor Res Line @ $3.58, and the Major Res Line @ $4.48.....

Previous examples of the Piercing Candle Formation make for interesting research opportunities.



Remember that the above is just the "Ramblings of a guy on a Cruising Holiday".....
Remember my TA is not a reco' to buy......
*REMEMBER TO DYOR.*


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## rcw1 (5 November 2022)

DrBourse
Seen any Mermaids during the cruise  ? 

When you back??  Was hoping, you might have a look please at Newcrest, as it is doing thy head in.
Stay safe cruising the seven seas...
Farmerge sends his regards, he is a great grandfather now... 

Kind regards
rcw1


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## DrBourse (5 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> DrBourse
> Seen any Mermaids during the cruise  ?
> 
> When you back??  Was hoping, you might have a look please at Newcrest, as it is doing thy head in.
> ...



Depends on how much alcohol I have M8...... *Lotsa Black Douglas (BD) = Lotsa Mermaids.*
Last cruise finishes just B4 Xmas - so *may *be back here early 2023 - on the other hand if the Cruise Ships run outa BD I may drop in sooner.

Have not seen much of Farm since the bad ole CommSuc Days, say Hi 4 me, and welcome to the Grumpy Great Grandad Club.

NCM seems to have found  support around it's IV of $16.35 to $18.55, Higher Lows & Higher Highs are abt the only TA Highlights atm.
No real reason to expect high $20's anytime soon - IMO their Dec Half Yrly Report (due late Feb) may be a turning point.



CYA


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## rcw1 (5 November 2022)

T


DrBourse said:


> Depends on how much alcohol I have M8...... *Lotsa Black Douglas (BD) = Lotsa Mermaids.*
> Last cruise finishes just B4 Xmas - so *may *be back here early 2023 - on the other hand if the Cruise Ships run outa BD I may drop in sooner.
> 
> Have not seen much of Farm since the bad ole CommSuc Days, say Hi 4 me, and welcome to the Grumpy Great Grandad Club.
> ...



Ta mate much appreciated 
Safe travels.

Kind regards
rcw1


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