# PRU - Perseus Mining



## Brasidas

As there is no thread for this company it is probably worthwhile setting one up based upon their progress to date.

Perseus was listed in September 2004 to acquire, explore and develop several significant advanced gold projects located in West Africa and Central Asia. 

Perseus has targeted regions which: have numerous "World Class" gold deposits; remain amongst the least explored by modern techniques; and include countries in which the Perseus has substantial experience. 

In the last 12 months Perseus has demonstrated the exploration potential of the key projects in Ghana, Ivory Coast and the Kyrgyz Republic and substantially increased its resource base.

Here is an over view of their *operations * at present - some of which are really interesting

*Tengrela Gold Project - Ivory Coast * 

Located on the border of Ivory Coast and Mali, covers 65km strike of the Syama gold belt and includes many of the strongest soil anomalies in the region.   in the region.   Drilling commenced late Nov 2005, 16,000m completed on 3 prospects totalling 12km strike - hits on every traverse.   Results include 33m at 11.1g/t, 25m at  3.2g/t, 4m at 42.6g/t, 31m at 1.4g/t Au from wide spaced drilling.  

Continuous reconnaissance drilling planned; RC rig about to start systematic infill drilling. 

*Central Ashanti Belt - Ghana*

Three projects located in Ashanti Belt, 25-65km from Anglogold Ashanti's 60Moz Obuasi deposit.

Previous production 300,000 oz, current JORC gold resources 268,000oz Indicated and 1,140,000oz Inferred, upgrades expected March 2007.   Feasibility work commenced on two projects with the aim to produce a combined 150,000 ounces per annum.   Three rigs operating on resource drilling.

The company announced only last month that the inferred resource estimate at the Kayeya gold deposit on the Grumesa project had nearly doubled to 29 million tonnes grading 0.9 g/t gold to give 800,000 ounces based on   drilling  in 2004 and 2005.

At the Ayanfuri  gold project.  Intercepts of  88 metres at 2.1 g/t gold  and 100 metres at 1.7 g/t  give an idea of the potential.

Total tenement area of 650 sq km, 70% under explored.  Several non JORC compliant deposits and other prospects awaiting drilling.

*Tolubay - Kyrgyz Republic*

Carlin style gold deposit discovered at Obdilla in 2005, maiden 618,000 oz Inferred resource from a small part of Obdilla target area.   Large intercepts common from 70m wide zone of mineralisation, including intercept of 213m at 1.8g/t Au.   Obdilla is one of many targets within 4,846 sq km of prospective Tien Shan thrust belt licences held by Perseus.  Regional stream sediment sampling in progress and drilling will continue throughout the year.

*Savoyardy - Kyrgyz Republic*

Also located in exceptionally rich Tien Shan gold belt, large Soviet resource, high grades confirmed from 2005 adit sampling, including 7m at 12.9g/t, 2m at 38.9g/t, 2m at 37.3g/t.  Drilling commenced recently.

Soil sampling has also defined a 3,500m long 500m wide target zone east of high grade lodes.

Summary - Perseus has made very good progress.  Its African ops give a balance to the Kyrgyz targets.  

Further discussion on www.minesite.com in this story .. 

*Perseus Mining Reports Success With Its Projects On Three Of The World’s Most Prolific Gold Belts.* 

Perseus Mining was listed on the ASX in September 2004 to explore and develop several significant advanced gold projects located in West Africa and Central Asia.  At the time Minews speculated that it might also be considering a dual listing on AIM for two reasons. First, its portfolio of exploration assets was focused on the Ivory Coast, Ghana and Kyrgyzstan which is hardly a trio of  countries calculated to make any red-blooded Aussie investor jump out of bed in the morning. Secondly  the company was being taken on a roadshow round Europe by Jamie Strauss of London broker Hargreave Hale. He is a man who calculates the likely return before making  a move in any direction so the potential of the company’s assets  and management must have appealed to him.

A quick talk to Mark Calderwood en route to Kyrgyzstan, but stopping off in Kuala Lumpur, confirms that he was indeed in London recently sniffing the air, but decided against an AIM listing for the time being. The company has enough  money to continue running between 5 and 8 rigs in these three countries for the time being  and he thought  an AIM listing would be more effective when these projects are  at the feasibility stage. In the meantime  he expects significant increases in the resource base  over the coming months. He is also at pains to point out that Perseus has targeted regions containing world class gold deposits which   remain amongst the least explored by modern techniques. It goes without say that the management of Perseus already has experience in these countries and Calderwood was  managing  director of   Afminex before its African assets were merged with   the Kyrgyz assets of JSC Z- Explorer to form Perseus.  

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3890 (Minesite do ask for a free registration)


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## Fishhead78

One must be confident that an announcement is near. One that will report on the Drill results of the projects mentioned previously.

The Perseus SP is somewhat deflated atm...but be assurred that the moment there is any indication of a positive announcement an immediate jump to 50c will occur.

The volume being traded atm, indicates its "minnows" who are impatient with their investment ( the blowfy types...who buzz from one stock to another with their small "stake").


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## Captain_Chaza

*PRU*

Ahoy there

The PRU seems to be breaking through an Ascending Triangular weather formation ATM with a relativelely weak cold front at the  ATH 
IMO
As always DYOR and Chartists welcomed


Salute and Bon Voyage


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## ongchuan

Anyone checking this out? Seems like they have higher grade of gold deposition. It was announced in yesterday announcement. Time to fly like RMS and ERL??


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## flyboy77

*A Challenge to All Gold Bugs!!!*

Find me a 'cheaper' better value gold play than PRU and (upon hearing and accepting the facts) I will produce a fine bottle of wine!


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## mhtrieu

*Re: A Challenge to All Gold Bugs!!!*



flyboy77 said:


> Find me a 'cheaper' better value gold play than PRU and (upon hearing and accepting the facts) I will produce a fine bottle of wine!




You owe me a bottle of wine flyboy77 

Stock: CGX 

Summary:
- 161 Million Shares
- 7,450,000 options Exercisable @ 60c (Expiring 31st August 2009)
- Market Cap = $90 Million @ 56c per share
- No Debt
- $30 Million in the Bank
- Top 20 Shareholders = 87.76% (largely institutionally owned)
- Roadshow in a weeks time

Masbate Gold Project (100% Interest)
- CGX acquired the Masbate Gold Project for $51 US Million which is equivalent to $10.06/resource ounce. CGX issued a bunch of shares to Thistle at 65c.
- 5.071 Million Ounces of gold 
- BFS completed in 2006 for a 4Mtpa operation
- Based on previous BFS, CAPEX is $95US Million, Production 171k Oz/year, Cash Cost $339US/Oz
- Currently in the process of further optimising the project based on the existing BFS. They are aiming for a production target of 200000 ounces/year at a cash cost of $300US/ounce. 
- Production in the last quarter of 2008

Mkushi Copper Project (51% JV with AFE http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AFE.L&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=)
- Former open pit and underground mines at Zambia. Archive data from previous operators indicates that the Mkushi area as a whole contains a global exploration target of the order of 30 million tonnes averaging 1.2% copper, or more than 350,000 tonnes of contained copper. The Company’s drill programme has intercepted copper mineralisation over a strike length of 7km to a vertical depth of at least 150m and has to date defined about one quarter of the deposit to JORC standard. Independently audited JORC Inferred Mineral Resource already represents 80,000 tonnes of contained copper.

Segilola Gold Project (51% JV)
- Potential open pit resource of 800 000oz at a grade of over 5 g/t gold based on previous work by a German company which completed a comprehensive programme including detailed mapping, 1500 soil samples, 520m of trenching, 100m of exploration audits (underground tunnels) and 2800m of diamond drilling.
- They will commence a 10 000m, 86 hole, diamond drilling programme before the end of June.

If you subtract the money they have in the bank, the 3 projects above is valued at $60 Million. The Masbate project alone is worth twice that. Gold producers with a 200kozpa operation have a market cap of around $350-$400 Million. Dont forget the other 2 projects also have good potential.


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## Lachlan6

Nice little breakout today on big volume for (PRU). Notice how the volume has been steadily increasing lately and I think this will have a big run higher. i got set at $0.87 today.


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## flyboy77

More stellar results. This is a sleeping giant. 

110m @ 3.8 g/t
78m @ 3.3 g/t
102m @ 2.6 g/t
38m @ 5.9 G/T

Perseus now has a resource base of 3.1m ounces of gold. Plenty more upside from all projects.

One of the best gold stories on the ASX.


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## sandra

Totally agree have been holding for some time now.hoping to purchase more come monday.I would say good luck but I don't think we need it,but I will anyway luck to all who hold ,fasten seat belts this is going to be a wild ride.


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## flyboy77

Me thinks this has a long long way to go.

Remember, MBL has 11% odd of this story. That says it all really......


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## flyboy77

*Perseus - How much gold?*

A further upgrade in resources is also due this June on Ayanfuri (and in the months following).

PRU have stated a 3m ounce target for Ayanfuri by year end.

The Grumsea mineralisation has been drilled to an average depth of 40m but the scope for increased resources is significant. In the Montagu report, suggested annual cashflow from a heap leach operation at Grumsea is USD10m p.a. (As stated, Grumsea has about 0.8m ounces at present).

Tengrela - too early for a resource figure but the sky is the limit. Why do I believe this?

The Montagu report notes that PRU identified 9 outstanding gold in soil anomalies and further that....

*"gold in soil anomalies of this quality in this Morila-Tongon region have a remarkable conversion rate from anomaly to SIGNIFICANT GOLD DEPOSIT" *(my caps)

Note that Syama, 35km to the north of the Sissingue anomaly (where results have been very good thus far eg 33m @ 11 g/t, 64m @ 3.1 g/t, 25m @ 3.2 g/t etc), is a 6.5m oz deposit. The Syama anomaly looks barely larger than Sissingue (but not certain as the diagram isn't the best...p3 of the broker report).

Tengrela could potentially be a multi million ounce project. Only time and drilling will confirm that. All early are positive!

Finally, Obdilla - part of the Tolubay Project in Kyrgystan. 0.6m ounce resource so far but most definitely multi million ounce potential - 4 rigs are now drillling there!!

A picture tells 1000 words - there's a long section often shown of the interpretive geology of Obdilla - the scope for potentially huge resource increases is obvious.....

Equally importantly, PRU has tied up loads more land - mostly on strike from Tolubay (land holding increased from 46 sq km to about 3800 sq km.). Why? PRU reckon there could well be (numerous) repetitions of the gold bearing structures. 

You do the maths on a likely gold resource for all PRU projects by year end - it really could be mind boggling!

Ayanfuri:     3.0m oz    (PRU's estimate)
Tengrela:     0.5m oz (being very conservative)
Grumsea:     0.8m oz (existing resource)
Obdilla:        1.2m oz (double the existing resource - 4 drills working)

Total:         *5.5m oz* 

*You have to admire the fact that these guys drill rather than talk about it........*


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## Awesomandy

It's up 9% today, and trading has been halted just before 3pm today pending an announcement. This is getting quite interesting.


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## flyboy77

*Try 8m at 113.8 g/t Au !*

• Spectacular results from two of four infill holes drilled on the Sissingue Prospect – Eastern zone anomaly on the Tengrela project highlight the potential of the gold project.
• Gold intercepts from two separate mineralised sub-zones included *8m at 113.8 g/t Au and 16m at 44.2 g/t Au.* Higher grade zones within these intervals included *2m at 438 g/t* and *4m at 175g/t Au *respectively. Other intercepts in the same drill holes included 24m at 4.3 g/t and 10m at 2.6 g/t Au.
• The four recent holes were drilled on a line between previously reported significant RC drill holes and 320m north of RAB hole SRB047 which intercepted 33m at 11.1g/t Au, providing evidence of high-grade mineralisation over a strike of at least 320m on the Sissingue – Eastern zone.
• The Sissingue prospect is the first of nine regionally significant soil anomalies identified by Perseus subjected to RC drilling. The strike length of Sissingue as defined to date by RAB drilling is some 4km. RC drilling has identified multiple zones of mineralisation over an area up to 750m wide.
• There is currently one RC rig and one RAB rig operating at Sissingue and Perseus is endeavoring to place at least one more rig on site as soon as possible.


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## flyboy77

*Take a look at PRU - up 26 percent today 1.20*

And yet no one cares......imo, one of the best handful of gold stocks on the ASX.

The tide will turn.


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## flyboy77

*Another Resource Upgrade at Ayanfuri!*

Resource Upgrade in Ghana
Ayanfuri Gold Project

Highlights
• Maiden resource estimate for Ayanfuri project’s Dadieso deposit at 153,400oz of gold.
• This resource starts from surface, has a significant oxide section and remains open along strike and at depth.
• *Ayanfuri Project total resources increase to 1.83Moz.
• Perseus Mining’s Ghana resources now at 2.64Moz.*


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## flyboy77

*More Great Drill results - Perseus*

Highlights
• The 1,000m strike length between the Abnabna and Fobinso deposits continues to return significant drill intercepts, including *30m at 7.8g/t*, *66m at 3.2g/t*, *30m at 3.0g/t* and *54m at 2.3g/t Au*.
• Drilling is continuing in the area to follow up on these results and the high-grade intercepts announced to ASX on 15 June.
• Drilling below Chirawewa main zone encountered high-grade gold intercepts including *5m at 125.4g/t* and 4m at 13.1g/t.
• These results continue the trend for drilling to delineate new gold mineralized zones on lightly explored ground between, along strike and below known gold deposits at Ayanfuri.


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## flyboy77

*More Good Perseus News - Capital Raising*

Raised $11.5m at 1.15/share. A very smart move.....

Will underpin the price AND, most importantly the number of rigs operating on the Ayanfuri, Tengrela and Tolubay projects will be increased.

*Will allow PRU to prove up the ounces as fast (and furiously) as they can!!! *

That is the value driver!


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## flyboy77

Up 12% today on about 0.83m shares traded.

Something is up? Ideas anyone?

Resource upgrade? drill results? both?


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## flyboy77

*Target of Five Million Ounces of Gold - in 2007!!*

From page 1 of today's release re a resource upgrade at Ayanfuri in Ghana:

"Perseus Mining is continuing its busy explorations programme and has moved its global resources to 3.6Moz, and *is targeting an increase to 5.0Moz by the end of 2007."* (my bolding)

Name me another company (Newcrest aside) listed on ASX with that potential?


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## arminius

anyone with an ear to the ground hearing things? 

what pleases me about this, besides buku gold, is their policy of looking after the locals re: employment, development etc. i wouldnt be comfortable investing in a company that rapes the ground and doesnt give a toss. 
quite pleasing.

big announcement due this week?


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## flyboy77

*New All Time High - Perseus Mining*

Perseus just made a new high of 1.48 in relatively light trading today. News expected (this week?) on several key projects in Ghana.....

Keep safe.


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## flyboy77

New Montagu broker report released with a buy recommendation on the stock.

You like gold? you will love Perseus. Have a read..........


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## flyboy77

*Re: PRU - Perseus Mining - more news today*

Does anyone know this story? 

i know a few that do - but if you want a serios gold play leveraged to the gold price look no further.

A sleeping giant. *BSG is a dwarf in relative terms.....*


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## tonza

I have very limited knowledge of the gold industry. I havent been following PRU but I saw the announcement today. Was it a good announcement?/Why didnt the market react to it?


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## flyboy77

Could I suggest you read the broker report on their web site.

Yesterday's announcement was further proof they have an entire district sized gold province on their hands in the Kyrgz Republic.

The up coming news on Ayanfuri and Grumesa (both in Ghana) will be the next real kicker imo.


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## flyboy77

*Exceptional Gold Results - 25m of 26 grams per tonne*

Trench IST-4-07 has intercepted 25m at 26.3g/t and 6m at 45.7g/t, at surface.....

see release out last Friday.


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## flyboy77

*Excellent presentation from AGM.*

http://www.perseusmining.com/presentation.11.html

These guys have more gold than they know what to do with. Incredible how few know about it.....


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## billhill

Agree with you flyboy. They certainly have some very nice looking tenements with significant scope for some big resources. They seem to chug along upgrading resources regularly. Got in on this stock recently. 

Looking ok technically. Just pushed above resistance around $1.50ish on strengthening volume but also the retraction in volume as the price pulled back to the $1.50 line is confirming that this should hold. Its now into blue skys (fingers crossed).


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## jman2007

Been following this myself,

Although don't hold atm, looking for a possible entry point which may have presented itself at 1.39.  Thought this looked good back in the day at 50c, but sadly didn't have the cash at the time to take advantage. While they are in the stage of proving up resources and far-field exploration while continually releasing news, think this should keep the interest up.  Definitely one of the more impressive gold stories on the ASX.


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## flyboy77

*Target of near on 8 million ounces by end 2008*



jman2007 said:


> Been following this myself,
> 
> Although don't hold atm, looking for a possible entry point which may have presented itself at 1.39.  Thought this looked good back in the day at 50c, but sadly didn't have the cash at the time to take advantage. While they are in the stage of proving up resources and far-field exploration while continually releasing news, think this should keep the interest up.  Definitely one of the more impressive gold stories on the ASX.




Listing on TSX, potential spin off....

Today's results excellent as always - 150m @ 2.4 g/t, 225m @ 1.6 g/t, 76m @ 2.4 g/t, 116m @ 1.8 g/t it goes on........

also a new anomaly to the SW of the abnabda zone 1300m strong core zone (highest value 63300ppb = 63 g/t) all within a 4300m long anomaly.


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## jman2007

*Re: Target of near on 8 million ounces by end 2008*



flyboy77 said:


> Listing on TSX, potential spin off....
> 
> Today's results excellent as always - 150m @ 2.4 g/t, 225m @ 1.6 g/t, 76m @ 2.4 g/t, 116m @ 1.8 g/t it goes on........
> 
> also a new anomaly to the SW of the abnabda zone 1300m strong core zone (highest value 63300ppb = 63 g/t) all within a 4300m long anomaly.




Still watching carefully,

Todays pullback pullback to 1.30 might provide a good entry, it'll be interesting to see Wall Streets lead tonight. Targetting 8M oz by end of 2008?!... that would put them in the top tier of potential producers for sure flyboy.  I guess the way they're going atm it wouldn't surprise me though.


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## jman2007

Well further pullback in PRU today to 1.25, I eventually decided to jump in at 1.255 as I thought there was a bit of buying pressure building up at these levels, and I was happy to pay that.  Sellers don't seem to be overly concerned atm, with many seemingly happy to sit between 1.30-1.40.  I wonder if we'll see a rapid bounce back in this one?


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## flyboy77

Bought a few options at 1.06 today. Bargain, imo.

Look at Andean Resources (AND) if you want an example of the effect of a TSX listing and the commensurate re-rating.....they listed on 16 May 2007......


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## flyboy77

*PRU spin off - Manas Resources + TSX Listing*

Well troops, it came out after market tonight and my first impression is that PRU shareholders WILL NOT be happy.

No in specie distribution of shares in the new company to PRU shareholders - merely a pro rata entitlement - you have to pay to own what you already own!

Second, it's on a 1 for 7 basis entitlement up to 20m shares in total. PRU will retain approx. 42% ownership (just over 50% fully diluted - cute but is there a need?). There's also 2.5m shares in "seed capital" - why you might ask - who gets these shares? GOOD QUESTION.

*Third, why is PRU seeking to raise CDN$50 million NOW when the level of dilution will be far less AFTER  the inevitable RE-RATING once trading on the TSX.* Higher the price = less shares issued......

I would have thought far better to list on TSX BEFORE the spin off - get the re rating then spin off in Canada....

Also, raise the CDN equity in stages as you need it - the DILUTION at current levels will be HUGE!!!

No doubt there will be some releases forthcoming to reinvigorate the stock but tough in the present market environment.....
All in all, some very odd calls by the PRU team.


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## jman2007

*Re: PRU spin off - Manas Resources + TSX Listing*



flyboy77 said:


> Well troops, it came out after market tonight and my first impression is that PRU shareholders WILL NOT be happy.
> 
> No in specie distribution of shares in the new company to PRU shareholders - merely a pro rata entitlement - you have to pay to own what you already own!
> 
> Second, it's on a 1 for 7 basis entitlement up to 20m shares in total. PRU will retain approx. 42% ownership (just over 50% fully diluted - cute but is there a need?). There's also 2.5m shares in "seed capital" - why you might ask - who gets these shares? GOOD QUESTION.
> 
> *Third, why is PRU seeking to raise CDN$50 million NOW when the level of dilution will be far less AFTER  the inevitable RE-RATING once trading on the TSX.* Higher the price = less shares issued......
> 
> I would have thought far better to list on TSX BEFORE the spin off - get the re rating then spin off in Canada....
> 
> Also, raise the CDN equity in stages as you need it - the DILUTION at current levels will be HUGE!!!
> 
> No doubt there will be some releases forthcoming to reinvigorate the stock but tough in the present market environment.....
> All in all, some very odd calls by the PRU team.




Flyboy,

wtf is going on here?!  I really don't understand why they would be offering PRU shareholders shares in Manas on a pro-rata entiltlement....surely the Kyrgyz licences fall under the issued capital of PRU to beigin with.... but you are right, in effect you have to pay again for something you already own!

What's to stop them further divesting their assets in the future into other spin-offs and then expecting shareholders to buy back into it again. Very disappointed, one reason I bought in was the exploration potential in Kyrgyz.

Fishy as hell mate


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## flyboy77

*That spin off.*

i reckon they'll cop some flak....

It is all rather strange and RUSHED in my opinion.

Sure list on TSX, raise SOME cash now to provide some liquidity in that market but what do they need CDN 50 million for NOW?

Raising in stages, as the price appreciates is far more aligned with CURRENT shareholders' interests....

Why the hurry for the spin off NOW? We have barely scratched the surface in Kyrgyz Republic - what is the rush???


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## jman2007

I'm with you mate,

this could get slammed in the market tomorrow, I don't really know why they would need that kind of cash for atm either.  Perhaps they feel that if they waited longer, global markets may become more illiquid than they already are now. OK, they'll probably need some cash for BFS's etc for their projects in Ghana, but this kind of fund raising goes way beyond that. First production targeted 2010 right?

Yes I wonder about the Kyrgyz spinoff entity.... it really is still in its infancy over there.


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## billhill

Don't worry too much guys. Although i agree the spinoff is a little bit sneaky and will probably hurt the share in the short term over the longer term i can see this seriously accelerating project development. When you look at the potential of all the prospects this company has then you have to realise that its extremely difficult to bring them forward together in one company of this size. The best way for perseus to help its share price is to go into production. This will definitely help that.


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## flyboy77

PRU will be acquired well before they go into production............in my humble opinion.

This minimum length rule is laughable.


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## jman2007

Well it has certainly been a dramatic year for PRU,

Good luck to all holders next year, and make sure you keep keepin PRU honest flyboy . I'll be MIA for the next 3 weeks, so over and out until then.

jman

PS Dammit, what I really wanted for Xmass was a share in those Kyrgz projects!:


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## arminius

i tend to have faith in people. the brains behind persus are included. 
to my way of thinking, to consider spinning off K gold in the manner prescribed, they must be certain of an absolute truckload in africa. if i won a brand new audi s6 id be inclined to get rid of the v8 calias for cheap, even though the holdens a damn good car. 

she'll be right.


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## jman2007

arminius said:


> i tend to have faith in people. the brains behind persus are included.
> to my way of thinking, to consider spinning off K gold in the manner prescribed, they must be certain of an absolute truckload in africa. if i won a brand new audi s6 id be inclined to get rid of the v8 calias for cheap, even though the holdens a damn good car.
> 
> she'll be right.




Not a bad analogy arminius,

I agree with most of what you are saying in principle, yes they are best known in the market for their African ventures and the huge discoveries they've been unearthing.  I think the issue some of us have on this thread is the slight disdain PRU have shown their shareholders, especially the measley pro-rata entitlement they offered for shares in Manas.  IMO, it could have been handled a lot better, i.e. a small bonus issue of shares, and/or some shares offered at a discounted price.  The gesture would have been well recieved by PRU holders I'm sure.

Just my


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## flyboy77

Agreed, it should have been handled a LOT better.

Over confidence, arrogance, petulance perhaps........?


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## JTLP

So PRU had a high of 1.60 and are current sitting on 1.16. Where do people think from here, especially concerning the spin off?

Interesting to note an announcement from the ASX: 
"20,732m of drilling has been completed in Ghana and Ivory Coast in the 35 days to November 30, including about 8,500m of core drilling. Nearly all results from this large amount of drilling are still pending."

That was on the 12th of December and still haven't come through. Also of note was today's announcement regarding the director purchasing more shares. Coincidence?

Looking to enter PRU soon, especially given there market cap, resource size and outlook. (hoping to produce gold when financially viable). "Ayanfuri as of Sept 2007 stood at 2.61Moz (indicated 637,500 oz; inferred 1,972,800 oz)." (thanks Jman2007).

Whats your thoughts on it Jman?


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## jman2007

JTLP said:


> So PRU had a high of 1.60 and are current sitting on 1.16. Where do people think from here, especially concerning the spin off?
> 
> Interesting to note an announcement from the ASX:
> "20,732m of drilling has been completed in Ghana and Ivory Coast in the 35 days to November 30, including about 8,500m of core drilling. Nearly all results from this large amount of drilling are still pending."
> 
> That was on the 12th of December and still haven't come through. Also of note was today's announcement regarding the director purchasing more shares. Coincidence?
> 
> Looking to enter PRU soon, especially given there market cap, resource size and outlook. (hoping to produce gold when financially viable). "Ayanfuri as of Sept 2007 stood at 2.61Moz (indicated 637,500 oz; inferred 1,972,800 oz)." (thanks Jman2007).
> 
> Whats your thoughts on it Jman?




Hi JTLP,

Yes sp is a little soft atm, if I had some spare cash I might even consider buying some more shares.  Although I am still resonably bullish re PRU's performance in 2008.  Good point re the pending drilling results and one of the Directors increasing his interest...

Between Sept06 and Sept07 PRU spent A$12.7M on exploration, a fairly impressive figure considering their market cap. At Ayanfuri for instance, 2Moz has been discovered in the last 12 months alone, and to top it off, PRU are planning an overall 50% increase in exploration and infill drilling during 2008, to 160,000m! A huge amount... Back to Ayanfuri, bear in mind 4 rigs are now on site.

I'd also be keeping an eye on Tengrela in the Ivory coast as well, currently 619,000oz inferred resource.  The Sissingue East prospect geologically speaking, lies just to the south and along strike from the 6.4Moz Syama mine.  PRU are of the opinion that Sissingue overall could potentially host 3+Moz.

I am really looking forward to the detailed feasibilities for Ayanfuri and Grumesa and production timetables, due out some time this year??

Well that's my little snapshot for now
jman


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## flyboy77

"Reasonably bullish"?

The spin off aside, this company is RIPE, yes RIPE, for a takeover - tomorrow, next week, next month......

*This is an (almost) unbelievable story.* It was *1.60 *back in late November with a LOT OF NEWS to come out - *DRILL RESULTS  *- not spruik like many others. *Today 1.05.*

A drop of some 35%!! 

*Let's not forget the TSX Listing planned for February!* 

I do wish they'd shelve the spin off and capital raising - madness in the current state of market.....


----------



## jman2007

Lol flyboy!...

Mate I'm glad you are a perenial optimist, a lot of investors are having a good hard look at themselves in the mirror and wondering why they ever got involved in shares!! I'm barely keeping my head above water as well btw!... too scared to look at my commsec account 2day!

Agreed, PRU drilling results are keenly awaited, at 1.05 starting to look quite juicy for another entry, but in this current market you'd be thinking twice perhaps, pyschological barrier of 1.00 might provide a level of support.

jman


----------



## flyboy77

jman - PRU has got the gold in the ground. That's all that matters really.

I'm buying bits and pieces on the 'dips' (how low can Joe go?)


----------



## jman2007

Very interesting...

Reginald Norman Gillard, a PRU Director has picked himself up another nice packet of 400,000 (yes that's right!) fully paid ordinary shares.  He held 10,000 shares prior to this.  

Balcatta Boys Ltd also increased their holding to 112,500 ordinary shares up from 75,000. Gillard is also a Director in Balcatta Boys Ltd.  I believe these are the lads who have spawned Contact Uranium (CGX) and who own the Corachapi deposit in Peru.

Thoughts anyone?.... imo something is going on, I'm not willing to speculate on takeover opportunites or anything like that, but I favour a pending market release by PRU. 

jman


----------



## JTLP

If a director buys, there has to be a week inbetween ann's yes?

If that is the case, I will throw more money down perhaps on friday...being a cheeky boy and all


----------



## jman2007

JTLP said:


> If a director buys, there has to be a week inbetween ann's yes?
> 
> If that is the case, I will throw more money down perhaps on friday...being a cheeky boy and all




JTLP,

I am not 100% sure on the wording of the rules for the minimum time period between when a Director buys and a Company annoucement. 

Can someone confirm this pls?...

Thanks
jman


----------



## JTLP

LOL...i guess there is no timing between ann's!!!

That was sneaky sneaky! Haha oh well the grades seem to be pretty good...Lets see PRU go up up and away!


----------



## jman2007

Well I saw that he made the transaction on the 18/01/08, so well outside the 1-week window.  Still it's good to know that by piecing bits of info together investors at least have a chance of forming some kind of hypothesis.

2.4g/t in itself isn't a stunning grade (even though some companies would calling this "high grade" ore), but the fact that the hole returned 2.4g/t over *150m* is very significant, extending the resource down plunge while still remaining open at depth. Looking good for similar plunging ore bodies along strike too.

jman


----------



## jman2007

Well hats of to Perseus,

The raising of another $10M is nothing spectaclar in itself imo, but the fact that they have some significant instituitional support is significant, albeit from current holders,  especially given the market climate and the difficulties other juniors are facing.

Aussie TSX listings are going through an interesting time, I think Canadian/US investors will be much more analytical re who they invest in in 2008, and will prefer robust fundamentals and projects over "blue-sky" promises. I think PRU mangement are reasonably aware of this, and will be pushing for more "measured" and less "indicated" in their resource re-calulations at Grumesa and Ayanfuri. Extn and infill drillling underway now.

Must be hard work trotting around their leases without tripping over a drilling rig, they're hoping to mobilise over 10 in total in their West African projects.  Hmmm, what I would give to be on the ground over there with PRU, perhaps I'll wrangle a trip to Africa one day!

jman


----------



## vegemite

Get set for more West African action
By Michael Quinn, 24 March 2008 

FURTHER corporate action in West Africa could be triggered by Lihir Gold’s announced takeout of Equigold, with Gold Fields one of the majors that’s been actively canvassing opportunities in the region over the past six months. *Juniors such as Perseus Mining and Gryphon Minerals could be the sorts to figure in the thoughts of those with M&A on their mind.*Insiders say the South African-based major has been on the lookout for both companies and properties in Ghana, and, speaking from Russia, Gold Fields’ exploration and business development VP Tommy McKeith confirmed to HighGrade the company had been “tooling” up its Accra office in light of a “renewed effort in West Africa”.

McKeith said Gold Fields, which last year divested the advanced Essakane project in Burkina Faso and which had a major operating presence in the region with its Ghanaian Tarkwa and Damang operations, particularly liked the potential of Ghana and Mali. (In the latter it has a joint venture with Dublin-based Glencar Mining).

*While McKeith unsurprisingly wouldn’t be drawn further, Australian Securities Exchange-listed Perseus would be one junior that would likely hold attraction to M&A predators. Its Ayanfuri project in Ghana is targeted to have more than four million ounces by the end of the year, with a new resource calculation due next month, a pre-feasibility out in June and a full feasibility completed by October.

Perseus managing director Mark Calderwood said while there were plenty of “tyre kickers” around, the company wasn’t interested in transactions at current price levels.

Perseus was this week capitalised at about $A150 million, about half its value according to Cormack Securities, with the Canadian broker writing a site visit note on the stock this week ahead of a possible Toronto listing aimed for in the first half of the year – though Calderwood said the company might only raise half the $C40-50 million it previously mooted, not because of lack of appetite he assured, but rather, recent trading price levels.

Significantly, Calderwood said Lihir Gold “wasn’t the only big Australian” taking a look in the region, though he declined to comment further. (Merrill Lynch this week cited Newcrest Mining as a possible counter-bidder for the $A1.1 billion-valued Equigold in reference to the Lihir transaction).*
Other international heavyweights active in Ghana and elsewhere in West Africa include AngloGold Ashanti and Newmont Mining Corp, with Newmont’s initial scepticism of the region when it took over Normandy Mining earlier this decade now well and truly a bygone sentiment.

Aside from its major Ghana operations, Newmont is also a big shareholder in Gryphon Minerals, whose Banfora project in Burkina Faso continues to show big promise – as shown by hits like the 12m grading 8.66gpt from surface released this week.

Though it is early days, Banfora is seen as having potential to hold +5Moz (see HighGrade Jan 28-Feb 3 edition), with Gryphon this week capitalised at $A40 million.

*A big shareholder in both Gryphon and Perseus is Macquarie Bank.*

Canadian companies active in West Africa include Red Back Mining Inc (capitalised at $C1.5 billion), Golden Star Resources ($C920 million), Orezone Resources ($C550 million), Etruscan Resources ($C300 million), and High River Gold Mines ($C900 million).

London-listed Randgold Resources ($US3.8 billion) is another West African miner that insiders claim is taking a close look at its radar, with operational and development projects in Mali and Cote d’Ivoire, and an emerging prospect in Senegal. (Also working in Senegal is Melbourne-based Mineral Deposits, a $A400 million company currently in the throes of constructing an initial 200,000oz per annum gold mine as well as being the owner of an undeveloped Senegalese zircon project).

Meanwhile, Resolute Mining ($A600 million) is in the home straight redeveloping its Syama project in Ghana, a former Randgold asset that’s being comprehensively re-jigged and which is targeted to be in full production by year’s end at a rate of 250,000oz per annum. Resolute is also in joint venture with Etruscan on promising ground south of Syama.

Those that are active in West Africa don’t rule out changes to fiscal regimes and the like as a result of the activities of governments elsewhere in Africa and the world – particularly those gaining headlines at the moment in Central Africa.

However, the overriding point of the Lihir-Equigold transaction is that West Africa has re-emerged as the least risky region in the world for companies seeking the most significant growth opportunities in the gold sector. Credit Suisse summed the situation with its take on the Lihir deal.

“County risk aside, the Bonikro operation (owned by Equigold) and ground position shows significant potential for resource growth, reserve growth and production growth. This time around [compared to Lihir’s acquisition of Ballarat Goldfields] Lihir has acquired production and cash flow certainty and a significant exploration option. Given the very large and prospective ground position in the Ivory Coast controlled by Equigold, with 700km of strike exposure to the right rocks which host numerous world class deposits, we would not be surprised to see a competing offer.”

Similar sentiments on the potential for both the exploration and competing bids were expressed by other analysts.

“A key point that was emphasised when we met Equigold management earlier this week is the extensive and highly prospective tenements extending over 700km of strike in the Birrimian Greenstone Belt in Ivory Coast,” Merrill Lynch said. “This belt is highly productive, extending through West Africa, including the famous Ashanti mine in Ghana.

Arthur Hood, Lihir CEO, stated he would like to double or triple the $US8 million pa exploration budget for Ivory Coast. Equigold management beieves they already have an indicated 1Moz resource outside Bonikro’s 1.36Moz.”


----------



## vegemite

Have been tempted to add to my holdings recently with the price weakness, so these reports have pushed me to purchase a few more PRUO. Good luck to all,

Cheers, V

Blind find a wake-up call

By Michael Quinn, 24 March 2008 

CANADIAN analysts have been impressed by a site visit to Perseus Mining’s flagship Ayanfuri gold project in Ghana, *describing it as on the verge of being a world class discovery *and noting the important implications of a recent exploration breakthrough made by the Australian-based junior.

*Development studies at Ayanfuri are underway and set to be completed this year for a 200,000oz per annum project, though Cormack Securities’ analysts David Stein and Mike Kozak believe there is potential for the operation to be “much larger” over time.*

Resources currently total 2.6 million ounces, with a new calculation due next month, while a listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange has also been seriously mooted. 

The Cormack analysts particularly highlighted the importance of a recent, blind AF Gap discovery.

“The market greeted the discovery of the AF Gap zone in late 2007 as yet another small zone, where Perseus quickly collected a resource of 421,000oz,” Stein and Kozak said. “However, we now believe that it may be more important. AF Gap represents the first significant blind discovery on the property and opens up the potential for more similar zones. The other major zones in the resource were previous openpits that Perseus has extended at depth and along strike, which were originally found with geochemistry and RAB and RC drilling. AF Gap had a subtle geochemical signature and hence was never drilled by prior operators, yet it has become perhaps the best deposit in terms of overall size and grade.”

The analysts point out that like most of the other zones, AF Gap is hosted in granite situated on a regional SW trend.

“The granite hosted the gold deposits in Abnabna, Fobinso and AF Gap is like the same unit. However, the mineralisation is not uniform, creating zones of economic mineralisation with lower grade and thinner zones in between,” they said. “While the AF regional structure appears so far to be richly mineralised (total resource of almost 1Moz in only 1.5km of strike), at least two other parallel structures have been identified … (and) on each of the three identified mineralised trends, Perseus has 15-20km of strike length, mostly to the SW to explore.”

The Mampon target was cited by the Cormack analysts as a demonstration of that concept. At Mampon, located about 1.5km south-west of the edge of the Abnabna zone, Perseus hit one highly encouraging hole of 10m grading 14gpt, as well as thicker zones of low grade.

“At first glance, the geology encountered at Mampon is not ideal, the zones of granite are much skinnier than in the AF area, however, the rich mineralisation suggests that Perseus may be close to another find,” Stein and Kozak said. “The strike length of AF Gap on surface is only 200m, and it could contain 500,000oz, so we see excellent potential for more zones over time.”

The Cormack analysts also suggested an important similarity to Red Back Mining’s Chirano mine to the west.

“The largest gold deposits are hosted by intrusive rocks (called ‘granites’ at Ayanfuri), which are mixed with the regional package of sedimentary rocks,” the analysts said. “While gold deposits are also found in the sediments, the granites tend to be broadly mineralised and gold deposited at depth is expected to be free-milling ore (based on existing metallurgical tests), rather than the refractory sulphide ore that are so common in the Ashanti Belt.”

Perseus, which also holds the nearby Grumesa project and the Tengrela project in northern Cote d’Ivoire, was this week capitalised at about $A150 million. The company raised $10 million earlier this month – half from established shareholder Macquarie Bank – having begun 2008 with $A7.4 million.


----------



## jman2007

vegemite said:


> Have been tempted to add to my holdings recently with the price weakness, so these reports have pushed me to purchase a few more PRUO. Good luck to all



.

Hi vegemite,

Yes I'm not overly surprised to learn of a mooted M&A interest from outside parties...expecially at the current sp levels.  The AF Gap breakthough sounds like it was well recieved by analysts and investors in the stock, the Canadians in particular seem rather bulish that the Ayanfuri resource recalulation due out soon will deliver some substansial resource upgrades as well. 

I saw these two articles you posted on Highgrade this morning, you may want to run it by Joe (site administrator) re the legitimacy of posting articles that other people pay a subscription for, as I think he is trying to crack down in this kind of thing due to copyright violations etc...

Cheers
jman


----------



## Sean K

Some very nice intercepts here, not too far from surface.



> *Wide Drill Intercepts
> 
> Tengrela Gold Project, Ivory Coast
> 
> Highlights*
> • Wide-spaced diamond drilling has intercepted extensive gold mineralisation at the Sissingue prospect to depths of at least 180m vertical.
> • Hole SD003 intercepted 142.5m at 1.8g/t Au from 76.5m including 68m at 2.7g/t Au.
> • Hole SD006 intercepted 105.5m at 1.9g/t Au from 54m including 77m at 2.4g/t Au.
> • High grade sub-intervals from SD003 included 4m at 27.6g/t, 2m at 10g/t and 1m at 23.5g/t Au while sub-intervals from SD006 included 9m at 6.3g/t, 10m at 3.1g/t and 1m at 12.2g/t Au.




Looks pretty prospective, will be interesting to see if the higher grades can be replicated.


----------



## jman2007

Some nice results just released,

A new Greenfields discovery at Ayanfuri, called *Poku*. Grades were reported as 24m @ 24.3g/t from 48m, very nice ....

Sample quality looks good, so we can probably discount smearing of grades (which can happen if the RC samples are wet).  This wont be included in the Ayanfuri resource upgrade due out by the end of the month, but the upside looks very exciting when you consider the number of untested anomalies around Ayanfuri.

The market seems to have reacted strongly to the news, up 11c so far today.

Cheers
jman


----------



## flyboy77

Resource upgrade due at Ayanfuri within 2 weeks?

May well be part of the quarterly report but my guess is that it will justify a stand alone ASX release....

Question is how big will the number be and will it finally get the market attention that this story warrants!


----------



## jman2007

flyboy77 said:


> Resource upgrade due at Ayanfuri within 2 weeks?
> 
> May well be part of the quarterly report but my guess is that it will justify a stand alone ASX release....
> 
> Question is how big will the number be and will it finally get the market attention that this story warrants!




Should be a stand-alone release I would say,

Sitting on a small loss atm, but the Ayanfuri resource re-calculation will be pivotal in my decision about what to do with my holdings. If we believe what PRU are telling us, Ayanfuri could be huge. Just need some further clarification about where they intend to go with this, in more specific terms than just "proceeding with development" etc.

They could continue in this current vein for another 12 months, ie drilling in an around Ayanfuri and adding to their global resources, or begin to explore some serious options for starting to develop this project.  Or perhaps they want to have their cake and eat it too....

jman


----------



## flyboy77

An interesting comparison is Newmont's Ahafo mine (and Akyem project) in Ghana.

*"Reserves have grown from a combined 3.3 million ounces in 2002 to 20.3 million ounces at year end 2006."*

If Newmont like the country and have had that sort of exploration success, name me a gold company that PRESENTLY wouldn't be interested in Ayanfuri?

Why do you think PRU is drilling the lights out of the many targets at Ayanfuri in a serious hurry.....?


----------



## jman2007

flyboy77 said:


> An interesting comparison is Newmont's Ahafo mine (and Akyem project) in Ghana.
> 
> *"Reserves have grown from a combined 3.3 million ounces in 2002 to 20.3 million ounces at year end 2006."*
> 
> If Newmont like the country and have had that sort of exploration success, name me a gold company that PRESENTLY wouldn't be interested in Ayanfuri?
> 
> Why do you think PRU is drilling the lights out of the many targets at Ayanfuri in a serious hurry.....?




flyboy

It's premature to be worrying about Corporate manouvers at this stage imo. There is a long road ahead for everyone involved.

Yes, Ayanfuri could be huge, but there is still risk involved. The way these big companies like to operate is to wait for their earmarked projects to proceed to development and/or production, as a way to reduce exploration risk. 

Even if Ayanfuri doubled in size, it doesn't necessarily mean outside parties will be swooping in on it right way. Investors first need to be informed of where PRU are taking this project, and the plans they have in motion to explore the other untested targets around the prospect.

I imagine we'll know more in a few weeks.

jman


----------



## jman2007

_Huge_ resource increase here,

At Ayanfuri:

- A 68% increase in resources along the Abnabna-Fobinso zone, to 1.55M oz.

- A 46% increase for the Esuajah and Fetish group of deposits, which now     stand at 2.07M oz.

PRU's total gold inventory in Ghana now stands at 4.7M oz. In light of the ongoing resource definition drilling here, and the recent discoveries such as Poku and Mampon, imo this highlights Ayanfuri's potential as a world-class deposit.

Looking forward to the completion of the feasibility study in a few months .

jman


----------



## vegemite

Comments below from Perseus managing director Mark Calderwood:

“So far we’ve only provided resource estimates for seven of the 19 deposits previously mined – two new discoveries, Mampon and Poku, are still to be evaluated,” he said. We’re targeting an increased resource to 8 million ounces with reserves potential to 4 million ounces by the end of 2009.” 

Which means they are looking at roughly doubling the resource in about 18 months, and given their current rate of additions you would imagine this is not implausible.

Cheers V


----------



## jman2007

I was wondering myself when they planned to start evaluating the other deposits in the Ayanfuri camp, I think PRU are setting themselves up for a pretty fruitful year ahead with probably in the order of at least 60-80,000m of drilling on the cards.

Based on their recent performance, 8M oz doesn't sound like it's out of the question.

jman


----------



## vegemite

Perseus' African gold hunt gives it new goals
Barry Fitzgerald 
May 12, 2008 

THE last time Garimpeiro had a look at Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU) was in December 2006, when it was a $40 million company (40 ¢ a share) and it had an ambition to get a 3 million-ounce gold resource under its belt from projects in West Africa and Central Asia.

That 17 months later it is a $200 million ($1.18 a share) company tells you that it has had a good measure of success.

In fact, it has done better than expected, with the resource base in Ghana alone passing 4.7 million ounces.

When the big-time exploration potential of projects in the adjacent Ivory Coast is added, it is little wonder that West Africa has very much become the group's focus, with plans to spin off the Central Asian interests into a new listing (Manas Resources).

Continuing success in the West African gold hunt has prompted a reset of the group's corporate goals. Its targets now include an 8-million-ounce resource base there by 2009 and, more importantly, a mining reserve of 4 million ounces ahead of the march to producer status.

There is no bunch of investors prepared to back West African gold plays more than the Canadians, so part of Perseus' forward planning is to capture the higher market ratings the Canadians give for ounces in the dark continent by listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Having said that, it has not been lost on the Australian market that the local No. 2 listed gold producer, Lihir, has made a $1.1 billion bid for Equigold, with a big chunk of Equigold's valuation tied up with its 85% ownership of the soon-to-commission Bonikro goldmine (140,000 ounces in 2009) in Ivory Coast.

Perseus is not at the starting stalls as a producer just yet but it is working on feasibility studies into the development of its Ayanfuri and Grumesa gold deposits in Ghana, with a development decision likely this year and first production possible in late 2010.

As it is, on its current resource base, Perseus is trading at less than $50 an ounce. That is at least half the going rate for ASX/TSX-listed gold explorers/developers that have their main focus on West Africa. An investor roadshow is under way in Europe to highlight that position.


----------



## jman2007

Starting to run pretty hard,

Has gained around 20% or so during the week, and yet the PRU thread is strangely silent, which actually aint' very unusual!...

I quite enjoyed reading the PRU European Investor Presentation, as it clarified many points for me, significantly:

*For 2008:*
- 160,000m of drilling planned 
- Goal to increase resources to 6M oz
- Reserve Target of 2M oz
- Order long-lead items, production timetable

*For 2009:*
- Increase Resources to 8M oz, and Reserves to 4M
- Commence PFS for Tengrela, Ivory Coast
- Commence Construction at Ayanfuri, Ghana

Certainly still compares very favourably on a peer comparison basis when considering the MC/oz factor of $50, (marginally more expensive than poor old ADU down the road at Salman . I imagine when conversion of some resources to reserves takes place the disparity will be even more apparent.  Calderwood seems to be delaying the TSX listing until the sp approaches $1.50, and obviously wants to strike while the iron is hot. 

I might start taking a bit more notice of what is happening over at Tengrela as well, their ground does actually look a lot more prospective than I originally gave them credit for, being just down the road and along strike from Syama (7M oz) across the border in Mali. I know Syama is refractory, so it will be interesting to see how the ore characteristics compare when detailed met testwork begins.... no mention of sulfides so far though.

Again I think Tengrela could grow significantly, Sissingue is really only the first of 9 Au in soil-anomalies to be tested in the project area, and for follow up drilling on a soil anomaly to yield instersections of 142.5m @1.8g/t and 105.5 @1.7g/t is pretty nuts... Looks like they will twin the 142.5m intersection with 2 other DDH's, to follow this result up. 

Some width >= 2 g/t would be nice, but this zone may in fact be typified by very broadly anomalous mineralisation around 1.8-2 g/t??? I dunno, need some more drilling lads . I know the way many Oz Au plays have been beaten up this year, they would give their right arms for these kind of grades..lol.

Definitely starting to look the goods now.

jman


----------



## JTLP

Trust me Jman for biting the bullet and exciting...only to see a 40% rise 

I thought my game plan was intact...gold down...PRU stale...then bam.

I liked the presentation as well, but may have to wait for a pull back if im to get back into Africa.

Well done on holding


----------



## jman2007

JTLP said:


> Trust me Jman for biting the bullet and exciting...only to see a 40% rise
> 
> I thought my game plan was intact...gold down...PRU stale...then bam.
> 
> I liked the presentation as well, but may have to wait for a pull back if im to get back into Africa.
> 
> Well done on holding




shame JTLP,

Well it was a bit of a rough road for a while, I was down around 25% in this at one stage so I really just had to hold on. If I had really put my money where my mouth was, I would have loaded up again around 90c, but alas, well....and the rest is history as they say.

I was always reasonably confident of a substansial upgrade at Ayanfuri, it was just a matter of when, and how much. With a TSX listing looming, it will be interesting to see how the Canadians attribute value to quality ounces in the ground comapred to their Aussie counterparts ... I think they see us as "gold snobs" atm mate! Keep looking for that tech pullback, it could potentially stall around 1.50 perhaps.

jman


----------



## jman2007

Bit of profit taking during yesterdays session,

Would be good to see some consolidation around 1.45-1.48 as it has run pretty hard recently. Buyers look to have thinned out a bit so, so a slight pulback should be a timely reminder for us to keep our feet on the ground here. 

jman


----------



## jman2007

Some more DDH assay results out today from Sissingue East,

Pleasantly surprised with the SD010 results, 31m @ 11.3g/t from 69m, PRU are still awaiting assay results for SD016 and SD017 which are twinning the very broad, low-medium grade intersection in SD003.

SD007 and SD008 were not so impressive, which gives the the first inkling that perhaps we can start thinking about constraining this beast to the north? Mineralisation in SD008 in particular seems very deep, with average grades that might struggle to make optimisation (eg 15m @1.1g/t from 158m). We really need to see the assay data for SD013 and 014 to the north first before a proper judgement can be made. 

Encouraging to note that that two of the holes which PRU have yet to receive results for contain vg. 

jman


----------



## vegemite

Report out today by BGF Equities Research (formerly Far East Capital).
A few quotes from it:

"The best new multi-million ounce gold stock"

"When a project starts to get above 4 million ounces, it is 
legitimately world class. It comes onto the radar screen of the 
world’s largest gold producers who have a voracious appetite"

"You can be certain that there will be a number of companies lining PRU for a 
takeover, just as it was predictable that Bolnisi Gold – but this 
one is going to be bigger. This is a “no-brainer”! There is no 
other gold stock that compares"

"PRU’s Ayanfuri gold project in Ghana is rapidly emerging as 
the most significant gold discovery by an Australian company,
over the past three years"

"It appears that the cut-off grade employed is a function of 
economics rather than a geological limitation. This means that 
as the gold price rises, mining can extend the boundaries of 
the orebody and the resource expands, keeping profit margins 
constant but expanding the potential cash flow"

"Thus, the cash flow at today’s gold price would be US$66m and 
US$84m respectively (43 ¢ and 55 ¢ respectively)" (referring to Ayanfuri)

"In addition to the Ghana projects, PRU is in the early stages 
of assessing what appears to be another multi-million ounce
gold opportunity in the Ivory Coast"

"A listing in Toronto, in July, will coincide with a placement of up to $30m"


----------



## Miner

If BGF is selling the PRU to its clients at $1.4 and market held around 1.485 IMO  PRU is more to offer. 

PRU has been  aggressively marketing in Canada and their senior executives have returned from Canada and off to Congo. I am sure  BGF will be backing to hold the price as well until it gets listed in TSX at least. Nevertheless fundamentally I think PRU  has good prospects  and intrinsic value if I have read the  drill result and  company report correctly.

I believe the Manas (spin off from PRU) is going to be a hot cake and does any know get an idea how to get some priority allotment ?

In january PRU holders got priority allotment. 

Would be interested to know comments from others on EV, FV etc on PRU

Regards


----------



## jman2007

Bit of a sleeping giant here perhaps?...

PRU continue to aggressively define further mineralised zones at Ayanfuri, which is potentially on the verge of becoming world class. 

Some of the better intersections from the AF-Gap and Esuajah South include:

-   *77m* @4.6 g/t
-   *98.7m *@3.2 g/t
-   *104m* @3.9 g/t 
-   *62m* @3.4 g/t

Should be a steady flow of news throughout the remainder of 2008, with a maiden resource for Mampon due, the preliminary feasibility study due to be finished at the end of July, and of course ongoing drilling at Ayanfuri and Tengrela. PRU's target by the end of 2009 is to have 8,000,000oz in resources and 4,000,000oz in reserves, definitely one to go long on in my book.

cheers
jman


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Bit of a sleeping giant here perhaps?...
> 
> PRU continue to aggressively define further mineralised zones at Ayanfuri, which is potentially on the verge of becoming world class.
> 
> Some of the better intersections from the AF-Gap and Esuajah South include:
> 
> -   *77m* @4.6 g/t
> -   *98.7m *@3.2 g/t
> -   *104m* @3.9 g/t
> -   *62m* @3.4 g/t
> 
> Should be a steady flow of news throughout the remainder of 2008, with a maiden resource for Mampon due, the preliminary feasibility study due to be finished at the end of July, and of course ongoing drilling at Ayanfuri and Tengrela. PRU's target by the end of 2009 is to have 8,000,000oz in resources and 4,000,000oz in reserves, definitely one to go long on in my book.
> 
> cheers
> jman





Jman

If I can add to your comments the drilled resources has been constantly getting better, recent fund  by selling $1.4 per share even if it is $1.14 now shows intrinsic value (fund managers would not waste millions of their investors)  and SP could depress tomorrow with DJ fall tonight. 

I was reading  its reports and I personally believe you have nailed it 

But I am not an expert and would like stat gurus like YT and  Kennas   and others if possible could send your comments on your analysis of PRU

Cheers


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> Jman
> 
> If I can add to your comments the drilled resources has been constantly getting better, recent fund  by selling $1.4 per share even if it is $1.14 now shows intrinsic value (fund managers would not waste millions of their investors)  and SP could depress tomorrow with DJ fall tonight.




Miner,

There has been some quite aggressive capital raising by PRU this year:

- _3rd March 08_: PRU announces it has raised $10.6m from the issue of shares to a large European fund @ $1.06 per share.

- _21st May 08_: PRU announces it has raised another $15.6m from the issue of 10,714,286 shares @ 1.40 each to BGF Capital Group and Helmsec Global Capital.

Clearly some institutional buyers with appetite, imo a combination of the negative sentiment towards goldies, implosion of the DOW and tax-loss selling has clearly deprecciated the price here.

Current Corporate Structure:

- Ordinary Shares on Issue: Approx 174M
- Share Price: 1.15
- MC: Approx $200m

Pretty low EV of 42, explorers/juniors with MC to oz of around 30 would be about ballpark, so PRU doesn't look too bad on that basis. If they can actually prove up 8,000,000m oz in resources by the end of 2009, _and_ also 4,000,000m oz in reserves, then this would be a pretty strong case for a drastic re-evaluation. Bear in mind that of the 19 deposits previousy mined at Ayanfuri, only seven have resource numbers, so in all likelihood there is a good chance of achieving this.

Taking a _hypothetical_ scenario at the end of 2009, with 8M oz proved-up:

- Ordinary Shares on Issue: 250M (to allow for further dilution and capital raising)
- Share Price: 1.50
- MC: Approx $375m

Would still give an EV of around 45, for an imminent producer with a potential 180-200Koz p/a operation and a 15+ year mine life. Note that the EV excludes debt, cash and other assets.

Feel free to comment/challenge the numbers 

Cheers
jman


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Miner,
> 
> There has been some quite aggressive capital raising by PRU this year:
> 
> - _3rd March 08_: PRU announces it has raised $10.6m from the issue of shares to a large European fund @ $1.06 per share.
> 
> - _21st May 08_: PRU announces it has raised another $15.6m from the issue of 10,714,286 shares @ 1.40 each to BGF Capital Group and Helmsec Global Capital.
> 
> Clearly some institutional buyers with appetite, imo a combination of the negative sentiment towards goldies, implosion of the DOW and tax-loss selling has clearly deprecciated the price here.
> 
> Current Corporate Structure:
> 
> - Ordinary Shares on Issue: Approx 174M
> - Share Price: 1.15
> - MC: Approx $200m
> 
> Pretty low EV of 42, explorers/juniors with MC to oz of around 30 would be about ballpark, so PRU doesn't look too bad on that basis. If they can actually prove up 8,000,000m oz in resources by the end of 2009, _and_ also 4,000,000m oz in reserves, then this would be a pretty strong case for a drastic re-evaluation. Bear in mind that of the 19 deposits previousy mined at Ayanfuri, only seven have resource numbers, so in all likelihood there is a good chance of achieving this.
> 
> Taking a _hypothetical_ scenario at the end of 2009, with 8M oz proved-up:
> 
> - Ordinary Shares on Issue: 250M (to allow for further dilution and capital raising)
> - Share Price: 1.50
> - MC: Approx $375m
> 
> Would still give an EV of around 45, for an imminent producer with a potential 180-200Koz p/a operation and a 15+ year mine life. Note that the EV excludes debt, cash and other assets.
> 
> Feel free to comment/challenge the numbers
> 
> Cheers
> jman





Thanks Jman

I liked your hypothesis and I  would love it should the hypothesis turns out to be fact

I was talking with a senior executive of the company about a month back and he (of course he would say so) said to keep an eye on PRU and Manas both, He was travelling between Canada, Africa frantically. I think by next month they  would unravel some good stories and when the price has dwindled down it is time to top it up for me

Fundamentals look like good and I am holding it though the shares have dropped down since I bought 

I am sure in couple of weeks there will be many more posts on PRU until then I should sit tight


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> Fundamentals look like good and I am holding it though the shares have dropped down since I bought
> 
> I am sure in couple of weeks there will be many more posts on PRU until then I should sit tight




Well these are indeed troubled times we are living in Miner,

Most goldies looking very volatile atm, and PRU no exception. I may have to seriously look at increasing my holding here, but the volaitility is a little unnerving to say the least.

The recent economic feasibility numbers look good, well in all honesty they looked great, but the $175M capex outlay is definitely something to bear in mind. With regards to this, I wonder if our Canadian friends may not have some part to play here, as we already know they are watching PRU rather closely.

The processing rate of 4.5mpta is about 1mpta greater than what I thought they would be targeting (not a bad thing by any means), and using a pitshell price of US$750/oz we arrive at 1.9Moz of in-pit gold or 2.6Moz using a $850 scenario. It's probably fair to say that the lower cutoff grade of 0.8(?)g/t provides us with a little more flexibility (another bonus), since if the gold price does increase significantly a lot more previous "uneconomic" ounces would fall within the optimized pit design.

Still AUD$20M in the Company kitty thanks to the seemingly well-timed cap raisings earlier this year, more than enough to drive Ayanfuri and Tengrela forward over the next 14-15 months. With a cap payback period of around 2 years, and a gross cash surplus across LOM of US$625M (before tax and deprecciation but after royalties) there will be plenty more to be played out in this story I'm sure.

jman


----------



## jman2007

Impeccable timing on my part with yesterday's post 

http://www.perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PRU081001.pdf

New Petra Capital research report out today, rating PRU a buy. No surprises sprung in the research, kept things relatively simple but made a good solid case for an investment in gold.

jman


----------



## Miner

Hi J Man

Thanks for your posting on PRU

I was off to Ningaloo Reef and excepting watching TV news occassionally was totally out of contact from Internet or phone - the best way to forget the meltdown in market . Where all the bloody top guns failed I better spend some more money on holidays before becoming bankrupt 

Any way the PRU shed more value from its recommendation of 79 cents as a buy. Interesting to see how market goes on Monday and probably time to buy some cheapies of PRU to make my average some respect

With market turmoil (3 trillions deficit not a joke with patch up) the gold shares are going to last longer alongwith pharma (there will be more stress, heart attacks from bank ruptcies so more medicines etc) shares

I will see today AM

Regards


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> Hi J Man
> 
> Any way the PRU shed more value from its recommendation of 79 cents as a buy. Interesting to see how market goes on Monday and probably time to buy some cheapies of PRU to make my average some respect




Well I haven't acted yet either Miner,

Despite a bit of a cooling off period for everyone today, I'm in no way prepared to call a bottom on this yet. The POG being absolutely hammered by US$50/oz certainly hasn't helped either. I guess in many ways, all you can do is revert back to the bare-bone basics in this kind of climate.

MC/oz ratio is now a shade under 20 by my calculations (a bit rough I might add), and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is 'rather' cheap for an advanced explorer. Then again, everything looks cheap as hell atm, we need to see what the POG does over the next 4 weeks or so get an idea where the gold sector might go.

jman


----------



## jman2007

jman2007 said:


> Well I haven't acted yet either Miner




Well I eventually topped up at 0.435, managed to reduce my average to 61c or so, reasonably happy with the result. Time will tell whether I've called this one correctly or not, so far we've had failed rallies at 1.15, 0.80 and 0.70. I see one of the Directors bought a small parcel of $10K on market, not a huge number but a token gesture is always good.

jman


----------



## Lachlan6

It would have been better if PRU could have held up around the $0.70 - $0.80mark. Instead it just crashed through and this places the impulsive count to the downside now on the cards. It is possible that the stock has completed either the wave (C) or (3). This will really depend on how it bounces if at all from here. Expect the $0.90 area to provide stern resistance for any move higher if it does eventuate. If the stock can now impulse higher, the correction should be over however if it moves higher in a choppy move, expect the impulsive move to pan out.


----------



## jman2007

Lachlan6 said:


> It would have been better if PRU could have held up around the $0.70 - $0.80mark. Instead it just crashed through and this places the impulsive count to the downside now on the cards. It is possible that the stock has completed either the wave (C) or (3). This will really depend on how it bounces if at all from here. Expect the $0.90 area to provide stern resistance for any move higher if it does eventuate. If the stock can now impulse higher, the correction should be over however if it moves higher in a choppy move, expect the impulsive move to pan out.




Thanks Lachlan,

Always good to get another perspective on a stock, especially from a T/A point of view. A couple of questions though, what's an impusle count and does the 3rd wave (or wave C) relate to Elliot Wave theory?

Cheers
jman


----------



## Miner

Hi Lachlan6

When you return with technical analysis responding to Jman 2007 query, could you please also look into your chart what could be possible analytical result for PRU to shot from 30 cents to 49 cents in two days. Specially a share has been always downward got 20 and 4 % jump when others sagged.

I noticed the director purchase but when they are reducing the worth of shares by million dollars through lack of capitalisation an investment of the order of $5000 is just peanuts for them to keep the stock floating in ASX

Something very abnormal when you see the volume of trade was for million shares on 20 th Oct when it normally traded only 13000 on a previous day and 133000 on next day. Surely there is something strange happening the market does not know


Let us see in next few days what unfolds with this stock

Regards


----------



## Lachlan6

Hi Miner, Jman 2007.

Below I have posted both the typical corrective and impulsive counts. The big difference is that the impulsive move to the downside is more bearish as any move higher will just be a bounce and not a new trend higher. With the completion of the corrective move (A,B,C) this should bring in a new trend higher. The question is, what is presenting itself with PRU at the moment. Time will tell which one will present itself.

JMan I cannot answer why the stock shot up so much as you say, although suffice to say that the realtionship between the buy and sell side changed dramatically in the short term with some thinking the stock had travelled too far to the downside. 

Regards, 

Lachlan.


----------



## Miner

Thank you Lachlan 6 for your analysis.

I looked at  PRU : a non producer with NCM : an established producer.

With depressed market today  and with prevailing gold price NCM has dipped by 14.6% today and 8.63% yesterday.

NEM gone down by 9.95 % today and gone down yesterday by 4.89% 

If I compare same commodity and companies a lesser known company like PRU has gone down only by about 4% and yesterday actually rose by 2 %. 

I am honestly confused  to see any correlation of the price increase or decrease and sniffing some thing with PRU the market just does not know. Funny enough ASIC often becomes blind to have some stricter vigilance. 

I am sure in a week's time if the cat will come out of the bag.


----------



## jman2007

Lachlan6 said:


> Hi Miner, Jman 2007.
> 
> Below I have posted both the typical corrective and impulsive counts. The big difference is that the impulsive move to the downside is more bearish as any move higher will just be a bounce and not a new trend higher. With the completion of the corrective move (A,B,C) this should bring in a new trend higher. The question is, what is presenting itself with PRU at the moment. Time will tell which one will present itself. Lachlan.




Thanks Lachlan,

I think I get it...  You seem to be saying that the severity of the downward movement will dictate what kind of count is established? i.e. corrective or impulsive. As you say, lets see how PRU reacts over the next few weeks...

cheers
jman


----------



## Lachlan6

Yes in some ways this is true jman. However what will give us the answer will be how the stock moves off the completion of the corrective or impulsive waves down. Will it move up in another corrective move or will it impulse straight higher. If it is the latter, than we can confidently say the stock will start to trend higher again. If it is the former, than this will not bode well and we should therefore expect no new trend higher and for the stock to tip over again. 

Remember, we have not seen the completion of either of these yet and it still may be some time before we do.

Regards;

Lachlan.


----------



## vegemite

Price rise of a few days ago may have been due to a postive report released by BGF equities (now available on the Perseus website). When the report was emailed out, it was accompanied by the comment below:

"Perseus (gold) - I feel very strongly about this one. The market has been harassed by a line of about 850,000 Opes Prime shares that have overhanging the market for many weeks. That was finally moved on Friday, butBGF Capital. Two institutions took the line. They obviously have a good eye for value. It is my bet that a takeover will be on the cards, sooner rather than later, though it would need to be pitched at much higher levels to succeed"


----------



## jman2007

vegemite said:


> Price rise of a few days ago may have been due to a postive report released by BGF equities (now available on the Perseus website).




Thanks for drawing our attention to the report vegemite,

Available here:

http://perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20October08.pdf

In many ways it eloquently sums up what most of us have been saying off and on for a year now, that Perseus represents outstanding value, especially given its current sp. I'm still not completely convinced in the takeover talk, but it is true that at current prices now would be the time for any predatory action. Let's see what happens.

Grigor appears particularly bullish re the Tengrela project, and is predicitng that 1Moz could be on the cards by Xmass. My prediction of 500Koz is a little more circumspect, but obviously I'd be delighted to see this get doubled!

jman


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Thanks for drawing our attention to the report vegemite,
> 
> Available here:
> 
> http://perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20October08.pdf
> 
> In many ways it eloquently sums up what most of us have been saying off and on for a year now, that Perseus represents outstanding value, especially given its current sp. I'm still not completely convinced in the takeover talk, but it is true that at current prices now would be the time for any predatory action. Let's see what happens.
> 
> Grigor appears particularly bullish re the Tengrela project, and is predicitng that 1Moz could be on the cards by Xmass. My prediction of 500Koz is a little more circumspect, but obviously I'd be delighted to see this get doubled!
> 
> jman





I do agree what you said Jman

However if we recollect BG raised fund at $1.50 and published an excellent report on PRU. 

The share price never recovered. 

It has written another good report and could this be for raising fund again ?

Cheers


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Thanks for drawing our attention to the report vegemite,
> 
> Available here:
> 
> http://perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20October08.pdf
> 
> In many ways it eloquently sums up what most of us have been saying off and on for a year now, that Perseus represents outstanding value, especially given its current sp. I'm still not completely convinced in the takeover talk, but it is true that at current prices now would be the time for any predatory action. Let's see what happens.
> 
> Grigor appears particularly bullish re the Tengrela project, and is predicitng that 1Moz could be on the cards by Xmass. My prediction of 500Koz is a little more circumspect, but obviously I'd be delighted to see this get doubled!
> 
> jman





I do agree what you said Jman

PRU last raised capital at $1.40 a share in May/June 2008, bringing in $15m (BGF raised $10m of this). Given the spending rate has dropped the cash balance below $10m, BGF rightly said that they expect the Company will be seeking additional funding within a few months.

The share price never recovered. 

Its good report in may / june which yet to be seen right. So this nice report again before a fund raising  

It is probably no secret that PRU is desperate to some one to buy the company bailing it out and search is going on. BGF has strong conflict of interest to write an unbiased report as they hold the shares and will get substantial commission from fresh capital raising. So they will always write a rosy picture



Cheers


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> I do agree what you said Jman
> 
> PRU last raised capital at $1.40 a share in May/June 2008, bringing in $15m (BGF raised $10m of this). Given the spending rate has dropped the cash balance below $10m, BGF rightly said that they expect the Company will be seeking additional funding within a few months.
> 
> It is probably no secret that PRU is desperate to some one to buy the company bailing it out and search is going on. BGF has strong conflict of interest to write an unbiased report as they hold the shares and will get substantial commission from fresh capital raising. So they will always write a rosy picture




Good points Miner,

Grigor also has a personal stake in PRU, although he doesn't appear in the top 20. Still $9M AUD in the bank by my reckoning, they've probably done most of the drilling they need to at Ayanfuri for the time being, the next step will be updating the Resource and crunching the numbers.

Interesting interview on the PRU webiste with Mark Calderwood, posted on Oct the 23rd:

http://www.perseusmining.com.au/aurora/assets/user_content/File/Microsoft%20Word%20-%2020081023%20Business%20Spectator_Interview_M%20Calderwood.pdf

There should be a reosurce upgrade next month and another one in January 2009. Hopefully by Feb next year, Calderwood is predicting 6Moz on the books. Tbh Miner I don't think PRU will be too concerned about going it alone for another twelve months, I also don't predict that another equity raising would present any problems for us, despite what some commentators would say.

jman


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Good points Miner,
> 
> Grigor also has a personal stake in PRU, although he doesn't appear in the top 20. Still $9M AUD in the bank by my reckoning, they've probably done most of the drilling they need to at Ayanfuri for the time being, the next step will be updating the Resource and crunching the numbers.
> 
> Interesting interview on the PRU webiste with Mark Calderwood, posted on Oct the 23rd:
> 
> [vv
> 
> jman




Thanks JMan for publishing the note from Business Spectator.

Interesting comment from CEO to say that he is relieved to be in GOld. Ironically what else he could say as he had no choice either.

I am now more or less confirmed that they have already got some suitors but waiting to get good price once hopefully the market recovers. Unfortunately for them and us the market recovery is far off.

Let us wait for PRU to get a suitor for take over

Regards

Miner (Do hold small parcel)


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> PRU last raised capital at $1.40 a share in May/June 2008, bringing in $15m (BGF raised $10m of this). Given the spending rate has dropped the cash balance below $10m, BGF rightly said that they expect the Company will be seeking additional funding within a few months.Cheers




Looks like you might have been on the money Miner,

A very weird announcement by the company recently indicating they had terminated discussions with a Sydney-based stockbroking firm. No elaboration and no explanation given, which has left most of us in the dark!

I thought we have have found a bottom at 35-37c, but looking pretty tenuous after todays effort

jman


----------



## nunthewiser

jman2007 said:


> Looks like you might have been on the money Miner,
> 
> A very weird announcement by the company recently indicating they had terminated discussions with a Sydney-based stockbroking firm. No elaboration and no explanation given, which has left most of us in the dark!
> 
> I thought we have have found a bottom at 35-37c, but looking pretty tenuous after todays effort
> 
> jman




so since may its chewed up 5 mill ....... how long can this co stay afloat at this current rate ? not to mention HOW the heck does it ever hope to even think about actually affording to mine the product ?


----------



## jman2007

nunthewiser said:


> so since may its chewed up 5 mill ....... how long can this co stay afloat at this current rate ? not to mention HOW the heck does it ever hope to even think about actually affording to mine the product ?




Drilling holes usually the best way to find ounces my friend. 5-6 rigs hammering away, plus overheads = one million per month. 

Also plenty of info available in recent company releases indicating cost reductions of 70% per month in relation to the scaling back of exploration drilling. They have 150,000m of drilling data to validate and incorporate into the resource models. Enough data available from Tengrela for maiden resource estimate, and Ayanfuri phase-1 mostly complete. 

PRU face the same funding challenges that every other budding advanced explorer/emerging producer is facing right now, so of course it's not going to be easy. Funding options should still be available for the top tier of quality projects however.

jman


----------



## Miner

Some facts of exposure of news which market needs to interprete for PRU.
Both CIG and PRU have common directors dealing in unrelated businesses and now CIG directors have dumped the PRU shares in a period of two weeks. So what else is coming for PRU as a bad news  

Should ASIC not investigate the actions of CIG directors having inside knowledge and not disclosing to market ?


 ASX  Announcements 
Date Time # pages Mkt Sensitive Description  

*20/11/2008 *11:14AM 3  Change in substantial holding for PRU 
03/11/2008 6:04PM 3  Change in substantial holding for PRU 

*DIRECTORS OF PRU* 
Mr Colin John Carson	Executive Director	--
Mr Reginald Norman Gillard	Non-Executive Chairman	--
Mr Neil Fearis	Non-Executive Director	--
Mr Mark Calderwood	Managing Director	--
Mr Rhett Brans	Executive Director	

*DIRECTORS OF CIG * 
Mr Colin John Carson	Executive Director	--
Mr Reginald Norman Gillard	Non-Executive Chairman	--
Mr Jurg Walker	Non-Executive Director	20/05/2002
Mr Michael J Sandy	Non-Executive Director	27/09/2005
Mr Graeme Parsons	Executive Director, Chief Executive Officer	18/10/2006

PRU 
20 Nov 2008 0.215 *-10.42%* 0.215 0.250 0.230 0.230 0.200 416,308 
19 Nov 2008 0.240 *-14.29% *0.280 0.240 186,545 
18 Nov 2008 0.280 -*3.45% *0.290 0.270 82,499 
17 Nov 2008 0.290 -7.94% 0.305 0.290 50,001 
14 Nov 2008 0.315 -3.08% 0.315 0.310 6,000 
13 Nov 2008 0.325 -4.41% 0.335 0.300 59,500


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## nunthewiser

Caspian Oil & Gas sold 2,128,000 Perseus Mining shares worth $1,492,790 between September 8 and October 31, decreasing from 24,685,135 shares (14.16%) to 22,557,135 shares (12.91%).


Caspian Oil & Gas sold 5,925,000 Perseus Mining shares for $1,533,855 between November 5 and 19, decreasing from 22,557,135 shares (12.91%) to 16,632,135 shares (9.52%).


----------



## prawn_86

Could it be CIG are just strapped for cash? They are a micro cap and may prefer that money in the bank or exploration as opposed to losing value...

Is a bit suss with the joint directors though


----------



## nunthewiser

prawn_86 said:


> Could it be CIG are just strapped for cash? They are a micro cap and may prefer that money in the bank or exploration as opposed to losing value...
> 
> Is a bit suss with the joint directors though




might wanna take asquiz at the registered offices addresses too m8 , these directors are involved in a few bits and pieces linked to this same addy  LOL even pay rent to themselves 

i know nothing of anythoing else re PRU /CIG etc just was posting shareholder movements for those intrested here


----------



## exgeo

A 2-minute peruse of CIG's latest quarterly shows that they have $0.6m in the bank and spent $3.7m in the last qtr (and income close to zero). A glance at the annual report shows that PRU was spun off from CIG to hold their gold assets. Looks like forced selling to me; the equity markets will be unavailable to CIG, so where else they gonna get the cash to keep the lights on other than by selling assets?


----------



## Miner

exgeo said:


> A 2-minute peruse of CIG's latest quarterly shows that they have $0.6m in the bank and spent $3.7m in the last qtr (and income close to zero). A glance at the annual report shows that PRU was spun off from CIG to hold their gold assets. Looks like forced selling to me; the equity markets will be unavailable to CIG, so where else they gonna get the cash to keep the lights on other than by selling assets?




I had almost 40 minutes discussion over phone with the Investor Relations Manager after I posted in this forum in the moring

What he said echoed your writing Exgeo

Apparently CIG is desperate for cash and even they have common directors they could not get the cash from fund managers due to their lack of assets. The major asset of CIG has been investment in PRU and so they sold it.

Logic seems to be reasonable.

PRU is actively seeking fund and their project in Ivory Cost going as per plan. WHich is a good sign out of all wood.

Disclosure : I hold PRU


----------



## Sean K

Nice initial resource with seemingly much more to come.

Might be one of the goldies to recover well with market sentiment, or a scrap for M&A.

Have done no research on this.

How's it's mc to oz au, other tennaments, any other info from holders?

Chart wise 40 looks a hurdle.

*Initial Gold Resource at Sissingue*
Tengrela Project (Ivory Coast)

Highlights
• Indicated and Inferred resources total 970,000 ounces at 1.9g/t Au using 1g/t cut-off (15.7
million tonnes at 1.9g/t).
• The high grade component is 5.1 million tonnes at 3.1g/t Au for about 500,000 ounces.
• The resource has been estimated on only 1km of the 5.6km soil anomaly, where broadspaced drilling has to date confirmed significant gold mineralisation over a 4km strike length and widths of up to 750m.
• Metallurgical testwork is continuing, with initial very high recoveries indicating fresh and weathered rock is free milling.
• Sissingue is the first of the nine strong anomalies to be resource drilled, highlighting the potential for the Tengrela project to host a multi-million ounce gold endowment. Wide spaced RAB drilling has identified significant gold mineralisation on the 4 other anomalies drilled to date.
• Sissingue is located 8km south of the Tabakoroni deposit (0.7Moz), 40km south of Syama (6.5Moz), 80km NW of the Tongon deposit (4.3Moz) and 150km SSE of Morila (7.0Moz).


----------



## vegemite

December 22, 2008
Perseus Livens Christmas Spirits

By Our Man In Oz

If Mark Calderwood finds nothing under his Christmas tree on Thursday morning he will not be complaining. As chief executive of the Australian-based, African-focused gold exploration company, Perseus Mining, Calderwood thinks Christmas might have come early in the form of “very forgiving” ore at the Ayanfuri project in Ghana. Sounding appropriately Christian in the festive season, “forgiving” ore liberates its gold easily. So easily in the case of Ayanfuri that Calderwood and his team are spending the holiday season crunching numbers to discover exactly how much they will save in processing costs, starting with a much smaller crushing mill, less electricity, fewer consumables and the elimination of entire sections of a conventional gold plant. From a per-ounce production cost in the US$430 range the new back-of-the envelope estimate is in the low US$300 range.

In Australian slang terms, even a legendary character known as Blind Freddie (and his dog) could see that saving around US$100/ounce on production costs has a dramatic effect on financial calculations, not to mention the potential impact on a company’s share price. “We’re certainly looking at some major benefits,” Calderwood said when Minesite’s Man in Oz spoke with him a few days before Christmas. “Precisely how much we’re likely to save should be known in a few weeks, but a starting point in the exercise is that we’re likely to need a much smaller mill, and use far less electricity.”

For newcomers to Perseus it is a company which has discovered a number of very promising gold lodes in Ghana and neighbouring Ivory Coast. Ayanfuri, near the Atlantic Coast in the central Ashanti gold belt, will be the first cab off the company’s rank. After that, subject to ongoing exploration, will come the Tengrela prospect in the north of Ivory Coast, close to substantial goldmines in that country and neighboring Mali. Interesting as Tengrela is likely to be in the future the action today is at Ayanfuri where Perseus has pinpointed an initial resource of 1.9 million ounces of gold, the major part of a total west African resource of 4.7 million ounces in the assorted classification which make up gold-in-the ground estimates.

In early October, Calderwood said the first pass of a definitive feasibility study had produced a base case for a mine at Ayanfuri yielding 196,000 ounces of gold in each of the first five years of a 10 year campaign, and 162,000 ounces in each of the final five years. The estimated capital cost was US$175 million, based on a mill processing 4.5 million tonnes of ore a year, to produce gold at around US$430 an ounce. But, having produced numbers which are reasonably attractive in a financial climate where gold is selling for around $830 an ounce Perseus has been lured back to the drawing board courtesy of Ayanfuri’s forgiving ore, a development delay which appears to have annoyed some investors who have failed to spot a change for the good. They’re the bunnies who dumped Perseus at A20 cents a share late last month and missed the bounce to A36.5 cents late last week., which is still well short of the stock’s 12-month high of A$1.60 though the trend in this case could definitely be your friend given the outlook for the gold price.

“Our plans are changing because the process route has been changed,” Calderwood said. “Basically, we’re getting some major benefits in processing. Even though it’s a classic free-milling carbon-in-leach (CIL) circuit we can still improve it dramatically.” Calderwood said guidance for the market on exactly what is being achieved should be released in the next few weeks. “All we can say at this stage is that we’re dealing with massive changes in capital and operating costs,” he said.

An early guide to what Calderwood is pointing to is a benefit to be gained from the ore releasing its gold very easily. “What we found is that during a flash floatation test we got much better recovery than we expected,” he said. “What that boils down to is that we can double the grind size, get a higher recovery, and have a throw-away tails having extracted 97 per cent of the gold. That means you reduce the size of the ball mill and crushing circuit, get rid of the back end of the mill, and produce a 3 per cent concentrate which is 40 to 80 grams a tonne, and just treat that as free milling concentrate and save a fortune on power, ball milling, cyanide, and all sorts of other stuff.”

As Calderwood explains the latest events at Ayanfuri it occurs to Minesite’s Man in Oz that what he’s really talking about is the equivalent of a significant “above ground” discovery. It’s the same orebody, but it’s just got a lot more profitable, leading to this logical question: what are the likely savings in costs? “We’re still doing the numbers,” is Calderwood’s answer. But, it is substantial?, asks Minesite. “Very substantial,” he said. “We hope for some indicative numbers in a few weeks, but we’re still pushing the grind size. We’ve done flotation work at 212 and 1000 micron and we think it’s somewhere between where the action is. We’re still playing with it, but as a general rule, every time we increase the grind size it makes a huge difference.”

In case Minesite’s technical chat with Calderwood has lost less technically minded readers there is a simple explanation. Essentially, by increasing the grind size Perseus is planning to spend less time, effort and money on crushing the ore. “What we mean is that we relax the grind, it means a coarser grind. It means a small mill is likely to be required, less wear and tear, less power. Savings all round.”

Now for the Biblical bit to complete the Christmas message from Perseus. “You can say that the ore is very forgiving,” he said. It sounds like a rather Christian orebody is the tongue in cheek suggestion from Minesite. Ho Ho Ho!!!, is Calderwood’s reply, before switching back into technical mode to explain what it all means. “A forgiving orebody is one that doesn’t disappear on you when you mine it. Forgiving metallurgically means it doesn’t give you grief when you mill it.” To put all this into perspective Calderwood explains that a conventional gold mill reduces ore to a between 75 and 106 microns. “We’re looking at 212 microns, or more. It can save 30-to-40 per cent of your power bill, and cut back the use of grinding media.”

Financially, the benefits are huge. “We need to produce the exact numbers but basically we’ll go from a 26 per cent internal rate of return (IRR) double or treble that number, whi is what you have to do in this market,” he said. “The game is over for sub-30 per cent IRR.” Calderwood said in the early years of the project he was hopeful of dropping costs into the low US$300/oz range.


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> Apparently CIG is desperate for cash and even they have common directors they could not get the cash from fund managers due to their lack of assets. The major asset of CIG has been investment in PRU and so they sold it.




That is more or less what I have been hearng Miner, I'm glad the forced sellng seems to be over. I'm not sure exactly how many common Directors are serving on both boards, but two seems to ring a bell. CIG holders might be sweating a bit, CIG must have suffered a substansial loss through this sell-off.

jman


----------



## jman2007

Lachlan6 said:


> It would have been better if PRU could have held up around the $0.70 - $0.80mark. Instead it just crashed through and this places the impulsive count to the downside now on the cards. It is possible that the stock has completed either the wave (C) or (3). This will really depend on how it bounces if at all from here. Expect the $0.90 area to provide stern resistance for any move higher if it does eventuate.




This could be an interestng few weeks for PRU

It would be interesting to get some comments from some of the tech-dudes, such as Lachlan/kennas on the PRU resurgence over the last few weeks? 

5.7M oz on the books so far, with another Resource update from Ayanfuri due out reasonably soon. A few points to note:

- All current pit optimizations based on $US 750/oz price, so using a $850 pit shell should increase the Resource base substansially...
- As per recent shareholder letter, scaled-down plant to provide substansial cost savings, and reduce capex.
- Next Resource update will probably include the newly discovered areas such as Mampon and the AF-gap....

I think conservatively we could see another 500k oz from Ayanfuri, but it could be anything up to another 1M oz imho.

jman


----------



## jman2007

Sentiment starting to look very bullish for PRU

Broke through 70c in early trading this morning and briefly touched on 74.5c before finishing up 11.5% on 67c... probably one of the few stocks going around atm that appears to be starting to live up to expectations.... 

Not much else to comment on today, we just need to sit tight and wait for the news to come out. Based on the trading behaviour we've seen recently, it should provide further triggers.

jman


----------



## vegemite

From Monday's Australian (Pure Speculation area)..

...Alarm bells went off at BGF Equities during the week when news arrived that Toronto-listed Red Back Mining, with a gold mine in Ghana, had raised $C150 million.

Analyst Warwick Grigor interprets this as Red Back preparing to make a bid for Perseus Mining (PRU), a junior now gearing up for production in Ghana. Perseus not only has a 4.7 million ounce resource in the country, with forecast first-year production cash costs of $US268 an ounce, but it raised $8.5 million last month.

Over the past week, Perseus shares have gone from 60c to 73.5c, helped by both the strong gold price and growing talk of a takeover. Trading activity could heat up as more punters get the sniff of a predator."


----------



## flyboy77

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24993532-5005200,00.html

the link if anyone is interested....

:


----------



## JTLP

Well it seems MQG think like that as well...raising there stake in the company.

They hold a pretty hefty chunk already...could be interesting.

I once held PRU but got out when markets imploded...The massive resource is nice...but a bit of sovereign risk too


----------



## Sean K

Nice resource upgrade out.

Anyone have some comments on the grades?

Seem a little low for Ghana, but just a guess.

With that number of ounces no wonder they may be a TO prospect.

Not a bad recovery from 20c! 

Another opportunity missed...


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Nice resource upgrade out.
> 
> Anyone have some comments on the grades?
> 
> Seem a little low for Ghana, but just a guess.
> 
> With that number of ounces no wonder they may be a TO prospect.
> 
> Not a bad recovery from 20c!
> 
> Another opportunity missed...




I thought it was a very nice upgrade too

It's good to see some of the long-suffering shareholders finally being rewarded through the fruits of PRU's comprehensive drillouts of '08. There has been a very large conversion of ounces from inferred to indcated, ... 85% or so. 

Tbh kennas I have questioned the grades a couple of times myself, here's a comparison of grades in West Africa  found in PRU's AGM presentation:

- Redback Mining: Chirano 1.58 g/t, strip ratio 2.7
- Lihir: Bonkiro 1.88 g/t, strip ratio 3.8

These are both approx. 1Moz deposits. Ayanfuri's lower grade (1.5'ish) should be compensated somewhat with the lower strip ratio of 1.8, according to the PRU presentation. The other thing to bear in mind is that a lot of Ayanfuri probably wont be free-digging as the mineralisation (from memory..) is mostly hosted below the transitional zone - so a lot of drill and blast mining. Generally I prefer companies to specify their resource base in terms of oxidsed, transitional and fresh, if applicable.

Still, this is one of the few stocks I had the kahunas to average down on...would have been a nice ride from 20c.

jman


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> I thought it was a very nice upgrade too
> 
> It's good to see some of the long-suffering shareholders finally being rewarded through the fruits of PRU's comprehensive drillouts of '08. There has been a very large conversion of ounces from inferred to indcated, ... 85% or so.
> 
> Tbh kennas I have questioned the grades a couple of times myself, here's a comparison of grades in West Africa  found in PRU's AGM presentation:
> 
> - Redback Mining: Chirano 1.58 g/t, strip ratio 2.7
> - Lihir: Bonkiro 1.88 g/t, strip ratio 3.8
> 
> These are both approx. 1Moz deposits. Ayanfuri's lower grade (1.5'ish) should be compensated somewhat with the lower strip ratio of 1.8, according to the PRU presentation. The other thing to bear in mind is that a lot of Ayanfuri probably wont be free-digging as the mineralisation (from memory..) is mostly hosted below the transitional zone - so a lot of drill and blast mining. Generally I prefer companies to specify their resource base in terms of oxidsed, transitional and fresh, if applicable.
> 
> Still, this is one of the few stocks I had the kahunas to average down on...would have been a nice ride from 20c.
> 
> jman



Cheers jmann. Wish I had have been watching this more closely around the lower levels and had a better handle of their project. I've now tipped in for a few which will mean it falls over from here. Sorry other holders.  Bloody hope my guess that POG is going to keep steady or up and that there's going to be some more consolidation occurring is close to the mark.


----------



## Miner

kennas said:


> Cheers jmann. Wish I had have been watching this more closely around the lower levels and had a better handle of their project. I've now tipped in for a few which will mean it falls over from here. Sorry other holders.  Bloody hope my guess that POG is going to keep steady or up and that there's going to be some more consolidation occurring is close to the mark.




Gurus Jman and Kennas

PRU has been desperately looking for cash and some take over
It has struck good luck now.
If you go back to its announcements you woudl find two more things :
Only couple of months back its promoters sold a large holding of PRU at a throw away price. From memory I raised it here. they must be biting their nails too . So whosoever not invested in this PRU have not lost any thing excepting paper.

Please have a look into Manas MSR as well  . It was a spin off from PRU. Suddenly the price shot up by 44 % (without getting a ticket from ASX) and thinly traded.

Could there be some merger back or acquisition considering Goldman Sachs predicted POG to shoot to $1000 very soon ?

You guys do lot of research - what do you think ?
MSR Price from ASX 

*05 Feb 2009 0.065 44.44% 0.065 0.063 28,620 *
06 Jan 2009 0.045 0% 0.045 0.045 10,000 
26 Nov 2008 0.045 0% 0.045 0.045 3,247 
24 Nov 2008 0.045 0% 0.045 0.045 6,753 
21 Nov 2008 0.045 12.5% 0.045 0.045 4,747


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## Sean K

Miner said:


> You guys do lot of research - what do you think ?
> MSR Price from ASX



MSR looks really interesting Miner. Miniscule MC with some very good drill results. Initial resource due next quarter. Hmmm, maybe we should start a thread for it? Cheers, kennas


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## flyboy77

kennas said:


> MSR looks really interesting Miner. Miniscule MC with some very good drill results. Initial resource due next quarter. Hmmm, maybe we should start a thread for it? Cheers, kennas





I reckon the Shambesai resource number could be out quite soon! Remember PRU retains effective control of Manas in the event that Manas stumbles upon a serious deposit....


----------



## Sean K

Crikey, Grigor likes this:

on 12 Jan:



> Investment Perspective: We have previously identified
> Perseus Mining Ltd (“PRU”) as one of the most compelling
> new gold companies, based on two multi-million ounce gold
> projects in Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Our enthusiasm has
> been based on the long life and outstanding fundamentals of
> the project economics of the Ayanfuri project in Ghana, whilst
> having a strong conviction that a takeover bid will be
> forthcoming, prior to any gold being poured.




http://perseus.auroracms.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/BGF Equities Research PRU Jan 09.pdf

That was before the resource upgrade.

Then, in regard to Tengrela:

Tengrela is the Next Multi-Million Ounce Project
In addition to the Ghana projects, PRU is in the early
stages of assessing what appears to be another multimillion
ounce gold opportunity in the Ivory Coast. The
Tengrela Project covers a 5.6 km mineralised system with
three main zones having been drilled so far. Gold is
associated with quartz veining and alteration within a
porphyry style system that has recently returned huge
intercepts that include 142m at 1.8 gpt (including 68 m at
2.7 gpt from a depth of 76m) and 105m at 1.9 gpt
(including 77m at 2.4 gpt from 54m). The grade of the
system is generally 1.5 to 2 gpt, but there are also
bonanza grade zones.

The first resource statement was made on 27 November
2008, quoting 970,000 oz at a grade of 1.9 gpt (15.7 mt at
1.9 gpt). This included a high-grade component of 5.1 mt
at 3.1 gpt, for 500,000 oz (indicated and inferred).
This resource was calculated from only 1 km of a 5.6 km
strike on the Sissingue prospect. Broad spaced drilling
has been conducted over a 4 km strike with width up to
750m.

Metallurgical test work has shown high gold recoveries
from free milling ore in the oxide and primary zones. A
scoping study is expected within a month or two.


The economics of this are pretty compelling if POG stays anywhere near it is over the next few years.

*DECEMBER 2008 QUARTERLY ACTIVITY REPORT*

• On 12 January 2009 a progress update on ongoing Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) work
was released, with highlights of the significantly improved projections including:
o Processing rate of 4.5Mtpa flotation-CIL and up to 1.4Mtpa heap leach.
o Average gold production of 206,000ozpa for the first 8 years of full production, including a
total of 493,000ozs in the first 2 years.
o *Estimated cash cost of US$268 per oz in year 1 and US$355 per oz average over 10 years*.
o Total gross operating cash surplus (before depreciation, financing costs and tax but after
royalties) of US$830M over 10 years at a US$850 gold price, including US$212M in
the first two years of full production
o *The capital cost estimate is down 23% to US$134M* from the previous estimate, with heap
leach production and income to commence after capital expenditure of about US$60M
on the heap leach and flotation-CIL circuits.
o *Project payback takes about one year from completion of the float-CIL capital works*,
and the estimated Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) is 71% from the commencement of
heap leaching.


I've only taken a small bite here, but on any weakness I'd have to be considering adding based on these funnymentals.


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> Crikey, Grigor likes this:
> 
> on 12 Jan:
> 
> 
> 
> http://perseus.auroracms.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/BGF Equities Research PRU Jan 09.pdf
> 
> That was before the resource upgrade.
> 
> Then, in regard to Tengrela:
> 
> Tengrela is the Next Multi-Million Ounce Project
> In addition to the Ghana projects, PRU is in the early
> stages of assessing what appears to be another multimillion
> ounce gold opportunity in the Ivory Coast. The
> Tengrela Project covers a 5.6 km mineralised system with
> three main zones having been drilled so far. Gold is
> associated with quartz veining and alteration within a
> porphyry style system that has recently returned huge
> intercepts that include 142m at 1.8 gpt (including 68 m at
> 2.7 gpt from a depth of 76m) and 105m at 1.9 gpt
> (including 77m at 2.4 gpt from 54m). The grade of the
> system is generally 1.5 to 2 gpt, but there are also
> bonanza grade zones.
> 
> The first resource statement was made on 27 November
> 2008, quoting 970,000 oz at a grade of 1.9 gpt (15.7 mt at
> 1.9 gpt). This included a high-grade component of 5.1 mt
> at 3.1 gpt, for 500,000 oz (indicated and inferred).
> This resource was calculated from only 1 km of a 5.6 km
> strike on the Sissingue prospect. Broad spaced drilling
> has been conducted over a 4 km strike with width up to
> 750m.
> 
> Metallurgical test work has shown high gold recoveries
> from free milling ore in the oxide and primary zones. A
> scoping study is expected within a month or two.




Kennas

Do you think there could be any geo-political instability now that PRU have divested their stake in Manas and the US are pulling out of Kyrgzstan?


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> Kennas
> 
> Do you think there could be any geo-political instability now that PRU have divested their stake in Manas and the US are pulling out of Kyrgzstan?



Not sure what you exactly mean GL. You mean instability in Kyrg because US pull out, or because of Manas? LOL. I assume just because of the US. I have no idea. Is there some policical problems there? Russia about to take them back now?  Not sure how much losing Manas would mean to PRU now really.


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> Not sure what you exactly mean GL. You mean instability in Kyrg because US pull out, or because of Manas? LOL. I assume just because of the US. I have no idea. Is there some policical problems there? Russia about to take them back now?  Not sure how much losing Manas would mean to PRU now really.




Well 'Manas' is the actual name of the US Base in Kyrgyzstan? But they will be leaving the country very soon!
I'm just thinking of sovereign risk and how the market may interpret that? :dunno:


----------



## shag

GumbyLearner said:


> Well 'Manas' is the actual name of the US Base in Kyrgyzstan? But they will be leaving the country very soon!
> I'm just thinking of sovereign risk and how the market may interpret that? :dunno:




the states said it was just a push for funding, tho seemed geniumenely supprised at the statement. but putin has promised them a lot of dosh if they turn away from the states.
piggy in the middle, makes it worse since the promised surge in afghanistan.
a little irrelevant to the investments there tho i suspect. and you assume one of the stans can be bought out and bribed by the states.
tho it seems its in line with putin's use of this crisis to regain control of the region and his country.

ps a us base must generate an awful lot of goodwill and dosh. whats more interesting is if the russians will keep their strategic and old black? sea base.


----------



## shag

thats a hell of a thick vein, 150m.
there's just too many possible earners, too little time.
no wonder it had a good week. i wonder when bhp will start targetting some resources. they must know now how china will go to some degree, have dumped the ugly scar of ravensthorpe, plus have an idea on what rio will sell.
it takes time to do some initial due dilligence before you act too.
i guess whats in doubt is how much the chinese can get out of rio, and whats left for bhp.


----------



## vegemite

From the Garimpeiro column in today's Age. Perseus gets a mention as potential takeover target...

THERE is a big contingent of Australians heading off to South Africa for this week's Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.

Indaba is as big as mining conferences get, and while you would think numbers will have to be down because of the global financial crisis, there is an expectation that the surge in demand for gold equities in response to the GFC means that the place will at least be crawling with gold miners and dealmakers.

The Canadians in particular are expected to be out in force. A host of Canadian miners have capitalised on gold's spurt to raise big licks of cash in recent times. Now they have to find something to spend it on and the back rooms of Indaba could just serve up the right sort of opportunity.

That's why we have seen the run-up in ASX-listed gold stocks that have Africa as their focus. Garimpeiro has mentioned previously that a stock like Perth-based Perseus is set to become the subject of interest to the growth hungry and now cashed-up Canadians.

Melbourne-based Mineral Deposits Ltd (ASX:MDL) is another case in point. It is only a month or so away from pouring first gold at its Sabodala gold project in the far west of Senegal.

Canada's Red Back Mining (it was originally floated in Australia), which moved on to MDL's share register last year with a 13 per cent stake, has recently raised $US123 million ($A194 million) and confessed that it liked Sabodala a lot.

No bid has emerged, but MDL closed on Friday at 70 cents a share, which is more than double its 28 cents a share low back in November.

In a recent research note, Wilson HTM analyst Keith Williams had a buy recommendation on the stock, which he valued at $1.70 a share but with a heavily discounted (60 per cent) price target of 92 cents a share.


----------



## Sean K

Tengrela SS out and this is paying for itself after a couple of years simlar to the other thing.

NPV of $130m just on this which was it's entire MC a few weeks ago. Add in the main event and if POGs staying around SS perameter levels all looks good.

On this and their other thing they're projecting 300m oz au pa, with Capex repaid after 2 years.

Nice little add on perhaps. No wonder there's talk. 

Happy for NCM or LGL to pick them up...


----------



## Miner

kennas said:


> Tengrela SS out and this is paying for itself after a couple of years simlar to the other thing.
> 
> NPV of $130m just on this which was it's entire MC a few weeks ago. Add in the main event and if POGs staying around SS perameter levels all looks good.
> 
> On this and their other thing they're projecting 300m oz au pa, with Capex repaid after 2 years.
> 
> Nice little add on perhaps. No wonder there's talk.
> 
> *Happy for NCM or LGL to pick them up*...




Thanks Kennas for bringing the report highlights.

I am sure PRU board will love what you said about take over. My feelings are they are more looking some one to buy and making the project as attractive as they can.

With 17 months pay back period and considering the low  AUS dollar is a temporary phenomenon for 12 months, high Gold price assumption of US $850/Oz for the scoping study is making the expected profit figure too high. 
That could probably explain market's price discount after the announcement.

NOt sure and would like to know your and others analytical thoughts.


----------



## Sean K

A chart perspective.

Has hit some resistance around the 85 mark. I thought 70 was tough too but it seemed to slide through there OK. That should now be support, along with 60 old resistance, which is all around the upward trend line. 

Damn, that spike in mid Dec after basing and potential breakout was a retrospective no-brainer.

Overall looks like a pretty nice C&H set up, if the handle appears with the consolidation happening here. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

POG and market meltdown will melt this basic TA to the floor.


----------



## JTLP

Well PRU just put out a clarification ann about production yadi yada no biggie...but something I did notice down the side was the pending (and quite big) ann's to be made in the coming quarter:

Ghana 5.6m oz - Resource Upgrade Q1 2009
Ghana - Feasibility Update Q1 2009

Cash at Bank Jan 09 - $11m

A few questions: 
- when do they plan to bring Ghana online? 
- how long will the $11m last?

Thanks,

JTLP


----------



## jman2007

JTLP said:


> Well PRU just put out a clarification ann about production yadi yada no biggie...but something I did notice down the side was the pending (and quite big) ann's to be made in the coming quarter:
> 
> Ghana 5.6m oz - Resource Upgrade Q1 2009
> Ghana - Feasibility Update Q1 2009
> 
> Cash at Bank Jan 09 - $11m
> 
> A few questions:
> - when do they plan to bring Ghana online?
> - how long will the $11m last?
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> JTLP




No development decision on Ayanfuri due until later this year. 

Realistic to postulate that the resource upgrade could push Ayanfuri up to around the 5.5Moz figure, and with the multi-million oz potential sitting within the Tengrela belt, I'm not pushing that hard for an early start-up tbh. The big boys on the block aren't particularly interested in projects less than about 3-4Moz, so for investors hoping for a TO it may help their cause for PRU to continue with their current strategy of proving up more ounces.

If the right suitor comes along at the right time, with the right price, the POG is still healthy (>$US900/oz), and the stars are aligned in PRU's favour then we could defnitely see some corporate action. Although depends on MAC Banks frame of mind too. It may be to PRU's advantage to develop these assets to a suitable level, flog them off at a suitable point and pursue a strategy of turning themselves into a 'project development' company (aka Miners theory). That takes massive risk out of the operation, remember PRU have never embarked down this road before. CGA mining have pursued this strategy reasonably successfully at Masbate in the Phlippines.

Cash at the bank should see them though for another 6 months imo, depending on their rate of drilling. No need to go chasing moose pasture right now, focus should be switching to infilling gaps in the drilling but mainly will being steered towards modelling and adavancing the feasibility studies in Ghana and the IC. Judging by the ease with which the last cap raising was sewn up, the instos look to be heavily backing this stock.

Just thinking out loud....

jman


----------



## flyboy77

Miner said:


> Thanks Kennas for bringing the report highlights.
> 
> I am sure PRU board will love what you said about take over. My feelings are they are more looking some one to buy and making the project as attractive as they can.
> 
> With 17 months pay back period and considering the low  AUS dollar is a temporary phenomenon for 12 months, *high Gold price assumption of US $850/Oz for the scoping study is making the expected profit figure too high. *
> That could probably explain market's price discount after the announcement.
> 
> NOt sure and would like to know your and others analytical thoughts.




Care to explain what you're getting at here miner? "low AUD" a "temporary phenomenon"? Says who? Is it really that relevant now?

And you're saying $850/oz is too high? Even though gold is now USD910 odd and everyone worth a cracker in the game says higher gold prices are inevitable.....? C'mon, it is a scoping study - a preliminary economic assessment.

Well I could also counter saying that given they target 2m oz by end 2009 the production rate will most likely double and the opex fall very significantly.


----------



## flyboy77

Times have changed jman.

I think you'll find the big boys are now looking at anything with 2m oz 'potential', especially if you get a 5m oz + deposit with it!


----------



## flyboy77

My point is the Sissingue study is a first pass study based on where thing s are at now....

Mark C. has stated on numerous occasions that they target 2m oz by end 2009 at Tengrela with more upside again  - _no doubt this will result in a production rate which will most likely double imo, operating costs that will fall very significantly (from the numbers put in the scoping study) and a shortened payback period?_

*So you could really argue this is a potential medium term (2-3 years) 400,000 oz p.a. producer at (say, guesstimate) 350/oz opex* and payback in the vicinity of 18 months for each project? Less, if a financier requires hedging for the duration of the expected payback period.

So, what would a 'big boy' pay for that sort of additional to their existing gold portfolio?

Lihir/EQI deal still remains the best yardstick, imo, and PRU dwarfs EQI in terms of in ground gold (yes, I know EQI was a modest producer).


----------



## Sean K

flyboy77 said:


> So, what would a 'big boy' pay for that sort of additional to their existing gold portfolio?
> 
> Lihir/EQI deal still remains the best yardstick, imo, and PRU dwarfs EQI in terms of in ground gold (yes, I know EQI was a modest producer).



Do you recall what that was valued at per oz of gold? 

I suppose I could look it up, but you may have it handy.

Cheers


----------



## GumbyLearner

flyboy77 said:


> Times have changed jman.
> 
> I think you'll find the big boys are now looking at anything with 2m oz 'potential', especially if you get a 5m oz + deposit with it!




M&A has almost always been the play this decade for the large-caps. Who knows what will happen with this one? I'm happy to wait and see.


----------



## Miner

flyboy77 said:


> Care to explain what you're getting at here miner? "low AUD" a "temporary phenomenon"? Says who? Is it really that relevant now?
> 
> And you're saying $850/oz is too high? Even though gold is now USD910 odd and everyone worth a cracker in the game says higher gold prices are inevitable.....? C'mon, it is a scoping study - a preliminary economic assessment.
> 
> Well I could also counter saying that given they target 2m oz by end 2009 the production rate will most likely double and the opex fall very significantly.




Dear Flyboy 77

I am not going to explain you any thing as my crystal ball is missing at this point and probably got mixed up with the crystal ball used by Goldman Sachs and other pundits in the market. 

It was a matter of my assumption and opinion - take it or reject it. Upto you.

Just put a trigger on this page and revisit in Feb  2010 to correlate what I said


----------



## vegemite

kennas said:


> Do you recall what that was valued at per oz of gold?
> 
> I suppose I could look it up, but you may have it handy.
> 
> Cheers




I don't have the figures for that, but in the latest StockAnalysis, Peter Strachan says gold producers are often capitalised at around 100/ oz reserves, with variations depending on mine life, sovereign risk etc etc. Developers trade at a large discount to this as they face funding hurdles.

Cheers V


----------



## flyboy77

From my records, Lihir paid effectively about $1.135 billion for 3 million ounces.

In April 2008.


----------



## nunthewiser

has anyone actually looked at the grades stated ?? not worried where it is ? takes a bit of money to process them grades from the tonnage they need to go thru to make it actually viable . anyone wary of the fact that at current spending habits EVEN with mar oppies and latest cap raising they are probably only gunna have enough cash to last till june/july09 tops ?

look im not saying its not a play but geez this bunch AND there directors need a VERY close look b4 jumping into too deeply as an investment stock .

its all there in black and white maybe start with the bizzo address and the ties that leads to when seeing who else renting the joint  . a bit of a search on the directors may lead you into some intresting reading too ....

anyways ............ what do i care its a trade stock ONLY in my book , nothing more


----------



## J.B.Nimble

nunthewiser said:


> its all there in black and white maybe start with the bizzo address and the ties that leads to when seeing who else renting the joint  . a bit of a search on the directors may lead you into some intresting reading too ....




Umm... you've done this already, no doubt.... The power of Google - every man and a few of his dogs seem to reside at 30 Ledgar Road, Balcatta - Contact Resources, Tiger resources, Caspian Oil & Gas, Manas Resources (not surprisingly), Goldinvest, De Beira Goldfields, Aurora Gold corporation, Spinifex Gold, Elemental Minerals, Zedex Minerals, Carnavale Resources, Moto Goldmines and on and on and on...  Black and white yes, but could be a bit hard to draw any conclusions out of this lot...


----------



## flyboy77

nunthewiser said:


> has anyone actually looked at the grades stated ?? not worried where it is ? takes a bit of money to process them grades from the tonnage they need to go thru to make it actually viable . anyone wary of the fact that at current spending habits EVEN with mar oppies and latest cap raising they are probably only gunna have enough cash to last till june/july09 tops ?
> 
> look im not saying its not a play but geez this bunch AND there directors need a VERY close look b4 jumping into too deeply as an investment stock .
> 
> its all there in black and white maybe start with the bizzo address and the ties that leads to when seeing who else renting the joint  . a bit of a search on the directors may lead you into some intresting reading too ....
> 
> anyways ............ what do i care its a trade stock ONLY in my book , nothing more




Nor sure what you're driving at here.....there is nothing wrong with ther grade, plenty of mines operate globally with lower grades.

Seems to me like you're shooting from the hip....a down ramper is a term i've seen used elsewhere....

Re the need for capital, don't let the facts get in the way. They have pulled back their MASSIVE drilling program (feel free to name ANY OTHER exploration company anywhere that drilled the metres - and successful metres at that - that PRU drilled in 2008).

From their last quarterly:

"From the Dec quarterly report:

"Program for the Next Three Months

During the March Quarter Perseus plans to:

• publish initial scoping study results for the Tengrela project;
• complete optimisation of the process route for Ayanfuri and commence final phase of DFS;
• complete a revised resource estimate on Ayanfuri; and
• continue resource and exploration drilling at Tengrela.

The Company raised $8.5M from a placement of shares in January and expects up to $2.5M from the exercise of options expiring on 31 March 2009. These funds are sufficient to cover the feasibility and exploration work planned for 2009."

So, please do your research before you come blasting rhubarb all over these pages; if you have an axe to grind with one or more of the directors, state your case but don't bag the operations!


----------



## nunthewiser

flyboy77 said:


> Seems to me like you're shooting from the hip....a down ramper is a term i've seen used elsewhere....
> 
> Re the need for capital, don't let the facts get in the way.
> So, please do your research before you come blasting rhubarb all over these pages; if you have an axe to grind with one or more of the directors, state your case but don't bag the operations!




LOL totally agree with my old uncle chopper who said never let the facts get in the way of a good story 


um not downramping as stated , i often trade this poundpup

um IF you actually researched the company , its adress and its connections to OTHER business at that adress and maybe had a squiz at some of there honchos and there connections with said businesees and previous past dealings elswhere , you would see that theres plenny custard with that rhubarb 

now have aniceday and dont get stroppy because someone here regards PRU as a trade stock ONLY and not an investment 

amen


----------



## Sean K

Definately no downramping regarding questioning of the grades.

You can actually objectively question the value of a stock here which I quite like. 

I did ask the grade question myself a couple of pages back and jmann gave a comparison with a couple of operators with grades around 1.5g/t in the area. If you've got a shallow open pit low strip ratio operation the grade is less of concern obviously, but is always a factor. Metallurgical test work and recovery rates then come into play I suppose, but I don't have too much of a handle on that here. Both Feasability Studies came in around 95%, which sounds OK to me. Cash costs average around $350 an oz, which is at the very low end of the spectrum. Payback for both projects is 1-2 years, so if POG stays up they'll have quite a sound base to expand and develop. With a 5m oz au ish resourse, and to expand, looks pretty good.


----------



## jman2007

nunthewiser said:


> LOL totally agree with my old uncle chopper who said never let the facts get in the way of a good story
> 
> 
> um not downramping as stated , i often trade this poundpup
> 
> um IF you actually researched the company , its adress and its connections to OTHER business at that adress and maybe had a squiz at some of there honchos and there connections with said businesees and previous past dealings elswhere , you would see that theres plenny custard with that rhubarb
> 
> now have aniceday and dont get stroppy because someone here regards PRU as a trade stock ONLY and not an investment
> 
> amen




I'm not exactly sure what you're trying to get at with your comment re the grades. 

If you have some doubts re Afminex - PRU's predecessor, or bona fide information re questionable links to other 'Balcatta Boys' companies then please just come out and say it, and save us all a lot of time.

We already know Calderwood has been/currently is involved with CIG and MSR, if that's what you're getting at.

jman


----------



## flyboy77

*Osisko Mining (TSX) - A Comparison.*

Osisko (OSK on the TSX) is at a similar stage to PRU (though they have completed a feasibility study) the project has a few unique 'issues' which will slow the development path.

Their main project is in Quebec, Ontario. A good jurisdiction undoubtedly.

It has a measured and indicated resource of roughly 6.2m oz of gold with a grade ~ 1.12 g/t (vs. 1.32 g/t at Ayanfuri). Capex will be high USD700m + but the annual rate of production is over 500k oz p.a. with silver credits; cash costs around USD320/oz. Capex est'd @ USD 146/oz.

*They also have to MOVE a large chunk of a town, Malartic - some 200 + houses!*

First production expected around mid 2011 but likely delays given the infrastructure complexities (moving the 200+ homes) imo?

Even using 850 gold (a la Perseus) the Malartic project _IRR was under 30%_ and the _payback period near on 3 years._

*They have recently completed a USD350m capital raising which was over subscribed by some $53m dollars - total raising just shy of USD403m...... this was all done in about 4 weeks.* 

In comparison, *PRU needs USD134m *for Ayanfuri yet the _payback is not much more than a year_ and the _*expected IRR ~ 71%*_.

PRU management is confident that the development of the second project, Sissingue (Tengrela), can be done out of cashflow from Ayanfuri.

So you tell me, do you really think PRU will have trouble raising USD134m (and my view is they'll only need to raise maybe 25-35% of that through equity i.e. up to USD47m, the rest can be debt funded). Arguably, 100% could be debt funded, but banks are banks....


----------



## jman2007

*Re: Osisko Mining (TSX) - A Comparison.*



flyboy77 said:


> Osisko (OSK on the TSX) is at a similar stage to PRU (though they have completed a feasibility study) the project has a few unique 'issues' which will slow the development path.
> 
> It has a measured and indicated resource of roughly 6.2m oz of gold with a grade ~ 1.12 g/t (vs. 1.32 g/t at Ayanfuri). Capex will be high USD700m + but the annual rate of production is over 500k oz p.a. with silver credits; cash costs around USD320/oz. Capex est'd @ USD 146/oz.
> 
> [In comparison, *PRU needs USD134m *for Ayanfuri yet the _payback is not much more than a year_ and the _*expected IRR ~ 71%*_.
> 
> PRU management is confident that the development of the second project, Sissingue (Tengrela), can be done out of cashflow from Ayanfuri.




Interesting flyboy,

I suppose it goes to show that the Cannucks aren't afraid of throwing a few hundred mill around when it comes to developing gold projects - in their own backyard anyway.

Their resource as a whole, being very large but low grade, looks like it has basically stood idle for a good 4 years or so waiting for it to become economic to be mined while Osisko continued to prove it up. Perhaps may become vunerable if the POG takes a dive based on those grades.

Still, I can't argue with the figures you presented. Perhaps we should also allow 15-20% capex inflation at Ayanfuri but even still, the outlay appears significantly less. I've always suspected the Canadians may yet have some part to play in the PRU story.


----------



## flyboy77

The Osisko team have been prolific drillers in the past few years often producing long intercepts (100m +) of 1 - 2 g/t material.

Malartic is a former producer and in one of Canada's great mining belts. More similarities to Ayanfuri!

*The OSK capital raising just shows the apetite out there for advanced stage quality gold projects. *

*Perseus sits easily and very comfortably in that camp.* 

I do wish they would list in Canada - just increases their profile so much more..... and has the best and cheapest access to capital.

Would also like some experienced 'external' independent directors brought on to the management team at Perseus - the fear of group think is ever present.....

Like many others, I am surprised this stock has not run back through 1.00 - their does appear to be a rather persistent seller at these levels, strangely enough!


----------



## flyboy77

*Location does help too.*

Let's not forget many of the big boys in the gold world already have existing operations in Ghana. *Relatively speaking, Ghana is a great place to operate a mine. The country has a strong and proud legacy of major discoveries – both greenfield and brownfield.* An interesting story is Newmont's Ahafo mine (and Akyem project) in Ghana.

"Reserves have grown from a combined 3.3 million ounces in 2002 to 20.3 million ounces at year end 2006."

You reckon they're not watching Perseus like a hawk?

1. Newmont (#2 in the world)
2. Anglo Ashanti (#3 in the world)
3. Goldfields (#4 in the world)
4. IAMGold (#15 in the world)
5. Golden Star (not really a big boy but...)
6. Redback Mining


http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/ptable.htm

Don't take my word for it - have a look at the Petra Capital report on Perseus on the web site....http://www.perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PRU081001.pdf

Others – you name it. Lihir took out Equigold last year with its Bonkiro mine in Ivory Coast and a large suite of exploration ground.

Let’s look at Newmont briefly. Newmont forecasts gold output this year of 5.2 m to 5.5 m oz @ $400- $440/oz, compared with 5.2 m oz at a cost of $440/oz in 2008.

The big guys struggle to replace their reserve/resource base constantly (on which they are valued, hand in hand with production rates, costs et al.) - they all know the easiest way to do this is to buy emerging stories:

That means Newmont needs to FIND or ACQUIRE 5.5m oz of gold EACH and EVERY YEAR just to maintain their resource/reserve base, hence their operating life and hence their market valuation.

Further if you are a mid tier producer, you must be proactive – either you acquire or you are acquired. You cannot just sit on the sidelines…..

You still not convinced about gold companies’ desire to do deal – look no further than the Kinross- Aurelian deal last year. No reserve, just a large resource in a questionable jurisdiction – Ecuador. Kinross had also previously acquired Bema Gold which had its main attraction as the Kupol mine in Russia.

*Bottom line, between Ayanfuri and Sissingue, PRU is potentially shaping up to produce 400,000 oz + p.a. *(assuming Tengrela gets to 2m oz+ it too will be a 2000k oz p.a. operation) at a cost of sub $350/oz.

With gold at 960/oz (and hopefully going higher still) that's a fairly decent margin and cashflow generation....per year!

*You do the maths.* :


----------



## jman2007

*Re: Location does help too.*



flyboy77 said:


> Let's not forget many of the big boys in the gold world already have existing operations in Ghana. *Relatively speaking, Ghana is a great place to operate a mine. The country has a strong and proud legacy of major discoveries – both greenfield and brownfield.* An interesting story is Newmont's Ahafo mine (and Akyem project) in Ghana.
> 
> "Reserves have grown from a combined 3.3 million ounces in 2002 to 20.3 million ounces at year end 2006."
> 
> The big guys struggle to replace their reserve/resource base constantly (on which they are valued, hand in hand with production rates, costs et al.) - they all know the easiest way to do this is to buy emerging stories:
> 
> That means Newmont needs to FIND or ACQUIRE 5.5m oz of gold EACH and EVERY YEAR just to maintain their resource/reserve base, hence their operating life and hence their market valuation.
> 
> *Bottom line, between Ayanfuri and Sissingue, PRU is potentially shaping up to produce 400,000 oz + p.a. *(assuming Tengrela gets to 2m oz+ it too will be a 2000k oz p.a. operation) at a cost of sub $350/oz.
> 
> *You do the maths.* :




I think the lesson that companies operating in Africa should take on board is a simple one: Think Big or Go Home.

Flyboy do you have any data showing what the discovery costs per oz are for the big players in this part of the world? Being the big corporates that they are, they also have the ability to funnel in huge resources into their exploration programs which goes some way into explaining why they have been able to find the big deposits...

On the other hand, there is also no doubt that Ghana has large swathes of poorly drilled/untested greenstone belts, so if there is anywhere in the world where you're likely to find a 1Moz+ discovery, then it might as well be here.

jman


----------



## flyboy77

*Was the 2.5m crossing CIG's last hurrah?*

Crossing of 2.5m shares went through just after 2pm today.

Possibly, it could be CIG and possibly the end of CIG's shareholding in PRU?

No question, there has been a persistent seller in the market over the past few weeks. Maybe that seller is now gone!?


----------



## flyboy77

*Perseus Mining - Added to the ASX 300.*

Go PRU.

This should attract some additional interest to the story.

Good bounce by gold last night too.....


----------



## Sean K

Tossing up a few random lines on a chart here as I'm a bit bored.

Support at 55 formed up.
70 - 80 major resistance.
80 top of a huge cup and is that a handle down to 55?
Target from break up shown but seems a bit far fetched.

Boredom over.

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

Ann out.

Not a bad upgrade and takes their resource base to over 7m oz au.

Surely a target at this stage?

NCM on the prowl.......


*Gold Resources Top 5 Million Ounces Ayanfuri Gold Project - Ghana*

Perseus’s gold resources at Ayanfuri now stand at 5.28 million ounces -

 The 450,000 ounce (9%) increase in Inferred resources resulted from modelling of three smaller deposits.
 These deposits will be incorporated in the mine plan in the feasibility study scheduled for completion in July.
 Perseus’s West African total resource base has increased to 7 million ounces of gold.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Ann out.
> 
> Not a bad upgrade and takes their resource base to over 7m oz au.
> 
> Surely a target at this stage?
> 
> NCM on the prowl.......



Trying to assess a takeover value for these guys based on the most recent large acquisition around the world and that was:

Gammon taking Capital Gold, who have about 2m oz au (from what I can assume) but usually declare 830K oz au @ .6 g/t for CAD $168m (AUD$197), and planning to produce between 250,000 and 265,000 gold equivalent ounces. Let’s take the 2m oz au as their total resource which gives them a mc to oz au value of:

MC to oz au is 197/2 = $98.5 an oz

PRU have 7m oz au @ around 1.5 g/t with MC 200m x .74 = $148m ish

MC to oz au = 148/7 = $21 an oz

If we give PRU the same MC to oz rating as the Capital takeover, that is $98.5 an ounce of gold, then PRU would be worth 7m x $98.5 = $689.5m

So, per share, a takeover may be worth $689.5m / 200m =  $3.44

Obvious major problem with this is that Capital is producing, while PRU is still exploring, so maybe not fair.....


We can dream .....


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Trying to assess a takeover value for these guys based on the most recent large acquisition around the world




New BGF broker report available from PRU website now:

http://www.perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF16March091.pdf

I think it's a little hard to ascribe a t/o value for PRU right now, I think two things need to happen to move this thing forward:

- Re-optimize the exisiting and proposed pits at Auanfuri using $US 850/oz  price. As far I can tell, all the pit designs have used US$ 750/oz (will be done as part and parcel of the BFS I imagine)

- Complete the BFS for Ayanfuri (Calderwood is saying April before they can determine how many Reserve ounces they have). 

This should help in reducing the resource risk substansially, which will make it more attractive as a t/o target. 

The resource base is very large, but we don't know just how economic Ayanfuri is likely to be just yet. On the flip side of the coin, the re-optimization is bound to bring in substansially more tonnes into the pit shells, which will boost the resource ounces still further.

Just to clarify:

The definition of a Mineral Resource is a "concentration or occurrence of material of intrinsic economic interest in or on the Earth's crust in such form, quality and quantity that there are reasonable prospects for economic extraction" (JORC Code 2004).

and

An Ore Reserve is "the economically mineable part of a Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resource". (JORC Code 2004)

Cheers
jman


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> New BGF broker report available from PRU website now:
> 
> http://www.perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF16March091.pdf
> Cheers
> jman



Pretty bullish report for PRU making it look like the best value developer in Africa. Still has lots of room to move in the share price before it starts to look even on a peer to peer analysis. It looks even better now with the resource increase not included in the analysis. 

I can't work out why it's so clearly undervalued. Is it the grade? Depth? Location? 

All things being equal, should eventually be re-rated unless we're missing something.


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Pretty bullish report for PRU making it look like the best value developer in Africa. Still has lots of room to move in the share price before it starts to look even on a peer to peer analysis. It looks even better now with the resource increase not included in the analysis.
> 
> I can't work out why it's so clearly undervalued. Is it the grade? Depth? Location?
> 
> All things being equal, should eventually be re-rated unless we're missing something.




And aren't we all (holders) looking forward to when that eventuates.....................................................


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Pretty bullish report for PRU making it look like the best value developer in Africa. Still has lots of room to move in the share price before it starts to look even on a peer to peer analysis. It looks even better now with the resource increase not included in the analysis.
> 
> I can't work out why it's so clearly undervalued. Is it the grade? Depth? Location?
> 
> All things being equal, should eventually be re-rated unless we're missing something.




Yeah I have been wondering exactly the same thing.

No real answers as yet.

Perhaps it really is one that has simply slipped under the radar of the market?

Bear in mind Grigor holds shares in PRU, and BGF have recieved funds from PRU from recent capital raisings, I think Miner made this point some time back.

jman


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Yeah I have been wondering exactly the same thing.
> 
> No real answers as yet.
> 
> Perhaps it really is one that has simply slipped under the radar of the market?
> 
> Bear in mind Grigor holds shares in PRU, and BGF have recieved funds from PRU from recent capital raisings, I think* Miner made this point some ti*me back.
> 
> jman




Gees

You always prove to be with outstandng knowledge (like Kennas, Kauri and few others_  but with an elephant like memory to remember what this Miner to say with shovel 

Yes, you were right mate on quoting me there

I do hold PRU  - disclaimer


----------



## jman2007

Miner said:


> Gees
> 
> You always prove to be with outstandng knowledge (like Kennas, Kauri and few others_  but with an elephant like memory to remember what this Miner to say with shovel




Haha!...

Better than having a memory like a goldfish Miner, I along with all other small investors am hoping the PRU story ends with a golden elephant! 

jman


----------



## flyboy77

*New PRU Corporate Presentation*

http://www.perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/Investor Presentation April 09.pdf

Also kennas, it would appear the Gammon Lake (or whatever they now call themselves) Capital Gold takeover is now off the table.

I think the Capital Gold shareholders thought the price was way too cheap!


----------



## flyboy77

Also some interewsting broker research on the Adamus Res (ASX code:ADU) web site showing comparative valuations on the West African miners.

In particular, the Clarus report - p7, Exhibit 4 and the paragraphs thereabouts....

oops, the Clarus report has been taken down!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: New PRU Corporate Presentation*



flyboy77 said:


> http://www.perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/Investor Presentation April 09.pdf
> 
> Also kennas, it would appear the Gammon Lake (or whatever they now call themselves) Capital Gold takeover is now off the table.
> 
> I think the Capital Gold shareholders thought the price was way too cheap!



The presentation mentioned can be heard with commentary from the MD an BRR

http://www.brr.com.au/event/56790/partner/theaustralian


----------



## flyboy77

You beat me to it kennas!

http://www.brr.com.au/event/56790/p...hana-day-mr-mark-calderwood-managing-director

Coupple of stand out comments and a few highlights:

1. *Expecting a big increase in in pit resources this month *i.e. April (remembering by definition no 'reserves' can be defined until the BFS);

2. Expecting to grow Tengrela (Sissingue) to 2m oz + within a year. Not presently doing any drilling at Ayanfuri.

3. Ayanfuri expected to be on line by mid 2011, Tengrela a year later.....

4. Ayanfuri likely to be amped up from 4.5mtpa to 6mtpa within a few years of first production.

5. Exceptional IRRs means the projects are very bankable (ditto the < 2 yr payback period on BOTH projects)

6. *By 2012, PRU anticipating 300,000 oz per annum generating a cash surplus of USD130m (~AUD180m) PER ANNUM using USD 850 gold.* (I stilll think Sissingue will be a 200k oz p.a. producer but they are basing it on the current resource only which is sensible)

7. *Biggest undeveloped gold project in West Africa NOT owned by a gold major or mid tier and has "obviously attracted attention"!*

Go PRU.


----------



## Sean K

flyboy77 said:


> 6. *By 2012, PRU anticipating 300,000 oz per annum generating a cash surplus of USD130m (~AUD180m) PER ANNUM using USD 850 gold.* (I stilll think Sissingue will be a 200k oz p.a. producer but they are basing it on the current resource only which is sensible)



Interesting that the projected cash coming in in 2 or so years is around about the same as their present MC. Obviously there will be some dilution due to raising Capex, but on the sum of it makes it look cheap at these levels. As long as POG doesn't do a complete floppy. Need about $850 to hold up well I think. Gold bulls will say that's in the bag, but never say never imo.


----------



## flyboy77

*Newmont seeks acquisitions, Boddington nears output*

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.industrysearch.com.au/News/Newmont_seeks_acquisitions_Boddington_nears_output-37796


3/04/2009 - Global gold mining giant Newmont is cashed up to pursue acquisitions and says the $US2.9 billion ($A4.12 billion) Boddington gold project in Western Australia is on track to start production in mid 2009.


Newmont Asia Pacific assistant regional vice-president Philip Stephenson said that despite tight credit markets the company last year raised $US1.7 billion ($A2.4 billion) to fund acquisitions.

"That strengthened our balance sheet, which was in pretty good shape anyway, and helped position us to take advantage of further opportunities hopefully this year," Stephenson told the Paydirt Gold Conference in Perth on Thursday.

However, Stephenson would not divulge details on potential acquisition targets.

"We've got a number of things on our radar screen and obviously can't elaborate on that," he said.

"We'll just monitor the situation and if an opportunity arises that we think is attractive, we'll see what we can do."


----------



## flyboy77

kennas said:


> Interesting that the projected cash coming in in 2 or so years is around about the same as their present MC. Obviously there will be some dilution due to raising Capex, but on the sum of it makes it look cheap at these levels. As long as POG doesn't do a complete floppy. Need about $850 to hold up well I think. Gold bulls will say that's in the bag, but never say never imo.




The issue of dilution is far from "obvious"...... me thinks they'll get gobbled up before then.

In any event, from experience, the greater part of the Ayanfuri will be project financed i.e. debt funded and MC has already stated that Tengrela can be funded (the equity component) out of cashflow from Ayanfuri.


----------



## exgeo

Charts from recent BGF research report (dated 16/3/2009). BGF have raised money for PRU in the past I think.


----------



## jonojpsg

Alright, let's get serious here.  With the following in mind and assuming some discounting 



> Notable deals in 2008 were Kinross Gold’s acquisition of Aurelian Resources for $1.2 billion, equal to $86 per ounce of gold in the ground, Barrick Gold’s all cash US $1.7 billion bid for Rio Tinto’s stake in the Cortez joint-venture in Nevada, paying an equivalent of $287 per ounce of gold in the ground,




Resources 7Moz 
Value $50/oz in ground (BIG discounts to those deals above)

Takeover value would be US$350m as compared to todays close US$100m.

Surely there has to be some major rerating of PRU over the coming months?  Unless as kennas says the POG goes backwards rapidly   Although I can't see that happening with everything as bad as it is.


----------



## flyboy77

*Perseus Mining - on  move today*

up 8.5% to 76.

The upgraded in pit resource numbers are due THIS month, perhaps sooner than I had thought?

Mark C. has already flagged the the improved numbers will see significant upward revisions....

All the selling looks like it is falling away and the buyers are now paying up.


----------



## flyboy77

exgeo, how do you post jpg files or the like?

Been trying to figure this one out for a while now....

cheers.


----------



## Miner

flyboy77 said:


> exgeo, how do you post jpg files or the like?
> 
> Been trying to figure this one out for a while now....
> 
> cheers.




I believe there is a restriction of sizes of different kind of files. So if your jpeg file exceeds the limit then you will not be able to download. 
the rule is same for any attachments. 

One way to get over if you think the size is within the limit and still you are unsuccessful then consider to send to our administrator who is normally very helpful to load it for you.


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## Sean K

Miner said:


> I believe there is a restriction of sizes of different kind of files. So if your jpeg file exceeds the limit then you will not be able to download.
> the rule is same for any attachments.
> 
> One way to get over if you think the size is within the limit and still you are unsuccessful then consider to send to our administrator who is normally very helpful to load it for you.



 You need to just save your file as a GIFF file. They are much smaller than JPEGs etc. If you don't know how to do that, open up MS Paint, (you should have it), go to file, open, find your picture, then 'save as' and you have choices of the type of file you want it to be. Make it a GIFF file. You lose a bit of quality, but it will be much smaller.


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## jman2007

Well so far up around 17.5% over two days,

What do you think kennas, could this be the beginnings of a market re-evaluation that has made PRU look so cheap on a peer comparison?

More importantly, what are some of the technical indicators we need to look out for to confirm the breakout, and can it maintain this momentum I wonder?

I think from Mark C's brr broadcast, we are due some 'substansial' news sometime this month, which if not today will have to mean next week cos there aint much of the month left! 

Cheers
jman


----------



## Sean K

Seems to be going very well intra day. Seen a couple of non taxi driver trades go through. For a real break probably needs an EOD close above this red line for a start, but that bottom red line break looked important too. Nice break up there, on increased volume. 70 ish should be some decent support on a correction. Damn, wish I had have been watching more closely around the 30c mark. What a terrible oversell that was. Surprised a low ball takeover didn't come in, in retrospect. Surprised one hasn't even now...


----------



## shag

well we have a trading halt, late fri arvo, after a decent rise.....
makes u suspect its not about them going bust or such.
good to see these things don't just jump out at u, and the SP appreciation gives u some warning...


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## Boggo

Popped up in my scan last night, been waiting for a convincing break above the $0.835.

(click to expand)


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## jman2007

shag said:


> well we have a trading halt, late fri arvo, after a decent rise.....
> makes u suspect its not about them going bust or such.
> good to see these things don't just jump out at u, and the SP appreciation gives u some warning...




Makes you wonder if they weren't reading this thread doesn't it? :

I would say that M. Calderwood's mates and a few of those 'independent' Resource Modeller's may be having a few Friday arvo drinks today. 

I suspect these revised numbers for Ayanfuri will be using the newly revised gold price of $850/oz, compared to the $750/oz (from memory?) price used for all the old pit shells. If this is correct, then a very large number of extra tons are suddenly going to be pulled into the pit shells, which is going to have a very, very substansial impact on the final revised Resource Statements - hence the Trading Halt I'm guessing.

jman


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## flyboy77

http://www.brr.com.au/event/56790/p...hana-day-mr-mark-calderwood-managing-director

MC says to expect a "very very large percentage increase in our pit resources..."

Guess we'll find out Monday.


----------



## flyboy77

*Why don't these guys list on TSX?*

They did most of the grunt work for the procedural stuff last year?

Just costing we shareholders dollars....... anyone doubt that compare AND to PRU on a chart over the last 18 months.

AND is back to pre 'crash' highs, give or take; PRU still about half of the pre crash high!


----------



## Sean K

flyboy77 said:


> *Why don't these guys list on TSX?*
> 
> They did most of the grunt work for the procedural stuff last year?
> 
> Just costing we shareholders dollars....... anyone doubt that compare AND to PRU on a chart over the last 18 months.
> 
> AND is back to pre 'crash' highs, give or take; PRU still about half of the pre crash high!



Can't compare AND and PRU that much IMO. Different type of deposits, different regions, and the grades of AND are slightly better. Better comparing PRU to the other W African players.


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> Makes you wonder if they weren't reading this thread doesn't it? :
> 
> I would say that M. Calderwood's mates and a few of those 'independent' Resource Modeller's may be having a few Friday arvo drinks today.
> 
> I suspect these revised numbers for Ayanfuri will be using the newly revised gold price of $850/oz, compared to the $750/oz (from memory?) price used for all the old pit shells. If this is correct, then a very large number of extra tons are suddenly going to be pulled into the pit shells, which is going to have a very, very substansial impact on the final revised Resource Statements - hence the Trading Halt I'm guessing.
> 
> jman



Yes, and we should have a drink too! 

Lets hope it is as you say and it's a substantial increase, probably based on the revised POG assumptions. $850 sounds fine to me, although there are a few who have been calling a short term pull back into the 700s. Been doing that for a year or so though...


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## Sean K

Ann out after the close, and looks pretty good. Shame golds not running, this would give it quite a boost. May anyway, pending general market sentiment.

In pit resource more than doubled which seems significant. Perhaps they'll be able to produce more ounces per year from this baby?

I like their note on the ann reminding the market that their market cap per resource ounce is $16. For a company at this stage of the development cycle should be well over $20 really.


----------



## flyboy77

kennas said:


> Can't compare AND and PRU that much IMO. Different type of deposits, different regions, and the grades of AND are slightly better. Better comparing PRU to the other W African players.




Not so Kennas, there is no reason at all why the two companies can't be compared.

The grades of AND are much better. In isolation, that means nothing...... PRU remains, at this stage, the better story imo.


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## flyboy77

*Upgrade to In pit gold resources ~ 4m oz GOLD.*

These are the highlights as lifted from the release:

In-pit gold resources increased to 4 million ounces, compared to 1.9 million in prefeasibility
• Total indicated and inferred resource currently 5.3 million ounces 
• Fast-track DFS, based on Stage 1 in-pit resources of 2 million ounces
• Larger resource offers opportunity to expand operations at an early stage of production
• DFS and initial ore reserve statement expected in July 2009
• Major project status confirmed with long life potential of 10-15 years.

Some key points, quoting MC:

"*The ultimate best fit is likely to be about 250,000ozpa to 300,000ozpa *with throughput rates of up to 8Mtpa” (but only 4.5Mtpa initially)

As an exercise, in simple terms, 4.5Mtpa to 8mtpa is an increase of 78% in capacity......

[Add in Tengrela at 100,000 oz pa (and likely to be closer to 200,000 oz pa once additional resources are drilled out).]

Expecting a RESERVE of 3.5m oz by the time of production (mid 2011). Only TWO years away! Tengrela about 12 months behind Ayanfuri. "Very robust projects" (from the brr radio spiel)

Then from MC again:

"“Exploration, which has added resources at the rate of 2Mozpa for Perseus, is currently on hold but I am confident when it resumes it will easily replace ounces mined over an extended period”.

And remembering that to date in converting inferred resources to INDICATED the conversion factor has been GREATER than 100%!

Moreover at Ayanfuri, only 8 of the 19 pits/deposits that were mined historically have seen drill testing since PRU took control.

To save time and money and to fast track production, they are basing the DFS on the three major deposits at Ayanfuri only.....

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow.

Please list on the TSX Mark- I guess they are waiting for a higher share price to minimise dilution?

Kennas, I consider a valuation many multiples of $20/oz is warranted?!  (have a look at Grigor's report dated 16 March).

PRU remains the stand out ASX listed acquisition target in the gold sector imo.


----------



## shag

i may have missed something but grades mean everything, why mine and crush, leach and dump ten ton of rock, plus batter the sides, when u can get just as much gold from say 5 ton.
its a bit why ext is over three times the price of bmn.
as well as pdn is doing, it must be wishing it had ext's rock.


----------



## flyboy77

not so, PRU's average grade is pretty low at Ayanfuri but because of the free milling nature of the ore, the low strip ratios etc the costs are also low - both opex and capex.

High tonnages help the equation too of course! 

Sure the higher grade the better, ceteris paribus, but that is not my point.


----------



## Sean K

shag said:


> i may have missed something but grades mean everything, why mine and crush, leach and dump ten ton of rock, plus batter the sides, when u can get just as much gold from say 5 ton.
> its a bit why ext is over three times the price of bmn.
> as well as pdn is doing, it must be wishing it had ext's rock.



Yes, shag, grades are extremely significant for any resource from Gold to Iron Ore. Obviously there's a number of other factors at play, but grade is one of the first things I look for in any resource. Your EXT/BMN example is a classic.


----------



## jonojpsg

Definitely looking the goods at the moment - sellers have dried up a treat, makes sense I guess when you have just doubled the in-pit resources and have such a huge differential between what they're worth and what they're valued at.

IMO we should see a significant run-on over the next week as this news percolates


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Now, if I said I was a little disappointed that I sold at 0.67 a few weeks ago, do you think I'd be telling the truth?


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Yes, and we should have a drink too!
> 
> Lets hope it is as you say and it's a substantial increase, probably based on the revised POG assumptions. $850 sounds fine to me, although there are a few who have been calling a short term pull back into the 700s. Been doing that for a year or so though...




It was a pretty good announcement really. There is a lot of information packed into a relatively small release, and the numerous tables need to be studied carefully too. There is another Warwick Grigor BGF broker report available on the PRU website which rates PRU a buy with a target price of $2.25. The report itself is pretty bland, and is more or less just a copy and paste job from the previous one, the charts look to be exactly the same. I wonder if this guy is being contracted to produce a certain number of these reports every 6 months?

http://perseusmining.com/aurora/assets/user_content/File/PerseusBGF20April09a.pdf

One point worth mentioning about Ayanfuri is the low-grade component (0.4-0.8 g/t). There are 1.261M oz grading @ 0.4-0.8g/t representing about 24% of the total Mineral Resource, or 60M t of low-grade feed. That's an absolutely enomous figure, and has a considerable diluting effect on the overall Ayanfuri grade, unless it is calculated separately -which is what PRU does. It would be interesting to know how PRU intend to mine and treat this material, presumably it is going to be stockpiled separately in the first few years of operation ie. low-grade stockpiles. I wonder how easy it will be to distinguish between low/high grade ore in the pit? It will come down to the continuity of the orebodies I guess.

It would be interesting to get a response from the company though.

jman


----------



## flyboy77

From Grigor's latest research report on the PRU web site (emphasis added by yours truly):

"Investment Perspective: Perseus (PRU) continues to stand out as one of the most significant emerging gold producers due to its resource base (approximately 7 mill oz.) from two projects in West Africa. It is not a company that will suffer from the hiatus in the share price due to lack of news flow in the financing and construction stage of the first project, Ayanfuri.

The less advanced Tengela gold project will continue to provide exploration updates from continuous drilling, with *an expectation that the million ounces already announced will increase by at least 2-3 times*. We expect continual good news flow, a rerating induced by Northern Hemisphere buying *and increasing takeover speculation as the numbers firm up*.

Perseus is trading at a 63% discount to our valuation of $2.25 a share. 

Perseus is our highest conviction gold share. BUY"


----------



## flyboy77

From the same report, on Tengrela:

"Commentary: Tengrela is probably about two years behind Ayanfuri on the development timetable, and there is only one million oz defined so far, but but it is *already showing superior economics *and *it promises to be much larger*."

Now that puts things in perspective as Ayanfuri is already, based on the reported numbers, an OUTSTANDING story!


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## CapnBirdseye

Price has dropped back to 0.845 from up to 1.00 (I thinik)... there may yet be another buying opportunity coming up..  slowly slowly catchy monkey..


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## Sean K

CapnBirdseye said:


> Price has dropped back to 0.845 from up to 1.00 (I thinik)... there may yet be another buying opportunity coming up..  slowly slowly catchy monkey..



Yes, should be good support between 75-85 which I posted a while ago I think. Could be a good opportunity, as long as overall markets behave.


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## Sean K

PRU trading halt to announce a capital raising.

They have $10m in the bank... 

DFS for Ayanfuri not due till July. 

Maybe they're striking while the sp has gained traction.

I wonder if they'll give current holders a look in or just give the dicount to the instos and sophisticates?


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## jman2007

kennas said:


> PRU trading halt to announce a capital raising.
> 
> They have $10m in the bank...
> 
> DFS for Ayanfuri not due till July.
> 
> Maybe they're striking while the sp has gained traction.
> 
> I wonder if they'll give current holders a look in or just give the dicount to the instos and sophisticates?




Your guess is as good as mine kennas,

Strike while the iron's hot maybe. Not sure what the immediate need for cash would be? Lots of conspiracy theories too; could it be the Canadians finally chipping in?... How much will they raise? At this price you would think an absolute minimum of $10M. What's it for? Surely they would want to fast-track the Ayanfuri DFS before we even start thinking about debt financing!


----------



## jman2007

jman2007 said:


> Your guess is as good as mine kennas,
> 
> Strike while the iron's hot maybe. Not sure what the immediate need for cash would be? Lots of conspiracy theories too; could it be the Canadians finally chipping in?... How much will they raise? At this price you would think an absolute minimum of $10M. What's it for? Surely they would want to fast-track the Ayanfuri DFS before we even start thinking about debt financing!




It's a big one alright acording to the West Australian:

"Perseus to tap market for more funds: 

...The West Australian understands that the WA-based gold miner is trying raise about $70 Million through a rights issue and placement to Australian and North American Institutional backers."

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=139699

Could give it a wee nudge along tomorrow?


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> It's a big one alright acording to the West Australian:
> 
> "Perseus to tap market for more funds:
> 
> ...The West Australian understands that the WA-based gold miner is trying raise about $70 Million through a rights issue and placement to Australian and North American Institutional backers."
> 
> Could give it a wee nudge along tomorrow?



Close, $75m at 82c.

And a 1 for 10 rights issue to punters at 82c too. 

You'd have to think they've done well grabbing the cash above 80c. They've only been trading there for a couple of weeks. 

What's it for:

The proceeds of the share offers will be used:

• to fund costs of Ayanfuri mine development including acquisition of plant and equipment;
• for continuing exploration on the Company's mineral properties, particularly at Tengrela and Ayanfuri; and
• for general working capital, including corporate overheads and administration costs.

Managing Director’s Comments

I am pleased to be able to announce this capital raising, one in which our existing shareholders will be able to participate to a significant extent. On completion of the offers, the funds will *assist with mine development costs *at Ayanfuri and will be particularly helpful in dealing with the “*long lead” items* of plant, equipment and infrastructure. It will also put the Company in a strong position to *negotiate project finance *upon completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study at Ayanfuri in July. I am also pleased to be able to offer participation to North American investors and, in particular, to *key Canadian investors *many of whom have been keen followers of Perseus’s progress.


Thoughts guys?


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Close, $75m at 82c.
> 
> And a 1 for 10 rights issue to punters at 82c too.
> 
> You'd have to think they've done well grabbing the cash above 80c. They've only been trading there for a couple of weeks.
> 
> Thoughts guys?




Generally happy with the result kennas, although the markets response is a little muted. I personally don't have a major issue with the price, and Mum and Dad investors are able to take a bite too.

PRU's profile and connections with the Nth AMerican instos clearly instrumental for this equity raising. Ayanfuri was alwaus going to funded by a combination of debt and equity, so despite another 100M shares being issued, the long-term benefits need to looked at. ie. debt financing on more favourable terms.

What's your thoughts?


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## CapnBirdseye

Well it's quite a hike in capital.  Currently the have market cap in $179m.  They are looking for an additional 40% or so.  If the cash is well invested it's a good thing.  Quite a punt really, I'm suprised the SP hasn't been hit too hard.  I was looking to get back in at around 78c, but now if the SP does drop to this level i'd be hestiant.  Not ruling it out though.


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## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> What's your thoughts?



Well, I was expecting them to wait till the DFS and then do the raising for total capex. It seems what they're doing is getting a pile of cash in the bank that they can leverege off for the rest of the funds required. Maybe it was the strength in the market over the past 2 months that has led them to take the opportunity. Who knows where we'll be in another 2 months. So, good move I think, and I am very happy with the price. Less dilution, and not too much of a discount for the sophisticates. Companies have had to issue shares at quite a discount recently to get funds. So, I'm happy enough to buy some more and _hopefully_ get some more cheap shares at 82.


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## exgeo

Good to get their hands on as much cash as they can while there's positive sentiment about I'd say. Heard today on Stockanalysis feedback session that there's a head and shoulders pattern developing in Aussie dollar gold, pointing to much lower AUD gold prices (haven't verified though).

Perhaps they could do a Carrick if they raise enough? Carrick sold about $15m in new shares at 150c when the gittin was good, and now they're buying shares back at about half the price (while still keeping their toe on a large wedge of cash of course).


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## Sean K

Intersting pennant/triangely thing appearing here in a very nice uptrend and over significant horizontal support. Looks pretty bullish for a break up to me if that all holds. Should do unless a black swan lands in the pond. Hate those!


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Intersting pennant/triangely thing appearing here in a very nice uptrend and over significant horizontal support. Looks pretty bullish for a break up to me if that all holds. Should do unless a black swan lands in the pond. Hate those!



Potential breakup intraday, but intra day calls are for mugs. So, I won't be muggish enough to call it a break up at this time. But it has potential. Or, I'll be a mug.


----------



## legs

Looks like a big chance to me!!
I got on this morning hoping it had the potential. 

Lets hope it can continue its run.


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## Sean K

legs said:


> Looks like a big chance to me!!
> I got on this morning hoping it had the potential.
> 
> Lets hope it can continue its run.



Great break up, running with POG probably, and halted at the $1.00 ish resistance mark. POG up tonight and DOW surging so you'd expect follow through. Love you long time PRU!


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## shag

the spp forms out too
i love these wee bonuses. 
easy too with bpay.
odly enough the market seems to have treated these cap raisings as positive news. i guess it shows how much monies were/are on the sidelines too.


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## Sean K

I can't believe LGL paid $350m for that woofer BGF when this is sitting here with a $160m MC. 

They also paid $1.1b for Equigold which only has about 2m oz and is forecast to produce 120m oz a year, about half what PRU are planning to...

WTF!!!

With the sp coming off with the market weakness it's getting back towards sillily undervalued stage, if POG manages to stay aloft in the coming years. 

A reminder of the last review done by Grigor:



> Investment Perspective: Perseus (PRU) continues to stand out as one of the most significant emerging gold producers due to its resource base (approximately 7 mill oz.) from two projects in West Africa. It is not a company that will suffer from the hiatus in the share price due to lack of news flow in the financing and construction stage of the first project, Ayanfuri. The less advanced Tengela gold project will continue to provide exploration updates from continuous drilling, with an expectation that the million ounces already announced will increase by at least 2-3 times. We expect continual good news flow, a rerating induced by Northern Hemisphere buying and increasing takeover speculation as the numbers firm up. Perseus is trading at a 63% discount to our valuation of $2.25 a share. Perseus is our highest conviction gold share. BUY


----------



## Sean K

Goodman and Company out of Toronto coming onto the register with 20m plus and 6.7% voting power. Must have been part of the placement. It says they only paid 66c a share. What the?


----------



## Golf 16

kennas said:


> Goodman and Company out of Toronto coming onto the register with 20m plus and 6.7% voting power. Must have been part of the placement. It says they only paid 66c a share. What the?




I am confused too Kennas. The SP seems to have dropped below your support line (Chart June 1). Given market sentiment do you believe a continued slump is on the cards? Indicators do not seem to be good (though charts can be confusing, for instance the Ultimate Oscillaotor of PRU shows an uptrend over the last 5 days against the fall in SP which can indicate a reversal of SP trend.) Is there any likelihood of further announcements eg of firming up resources into reserves?
Not in the swing ...  Golf


----------



## Sean K

I doubt the fundamentals on this can go unloved forever. Would be hard to imagine this not turning into a 2 mine company in the coming years, which should naturally re-rate it as a producer. Producers are normally valued well above $100 an oz au to mc.  It's currently just over $10 an ounce I think. Unless the info management is sending out is just BS. 

The next news will probably be the BFS for Ayanfuri, due in July.

Maybe some drilling results from Trengrela potential resource upgrades.


----------



## jman2007

Well it looks like it was a good move to raise the cash when they did perhaps. Yeh I saw the Goodman and Co price @ 66c as well, thought maybe it could have been in Canadian $ but it's definitely $Aus...  I think it deserves an e-mail.

I see Calderwood and Gillard have had a little bit of a dip recently. Tbh not really expecting any major news till next month either, when the BFS should hopefully be completed.


----------



## jman2007

Jeez, what the hell is going on with PRU atm?  No real rhyme or reason for the persistent selldown that I can fathom. It is rapidly coming back under the banner of yet another ridiculously under-valued Resource Project(s) when you start factoring in the IRR for Ayanfuri and Tengrela. 

Clearly has dropped through a major level of support here, anything we should be slightly concerned about here chartists? Depending on your viewpoint, some people may look at this as a golden opportunity I suppose. Next stop 65c?  Tbh I'd be flabbergasted to see this roll back into the 40c range, but hey.. these are strange days indeed.


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> Jeez, what the hell is going on with PRU atm?  No real rhyme or reason for the persistent selldown that I can fathom. It is rapidly coming back under the banner of yet another ridiculously under-valued Resource Project(s) when you start factoring in the IRR for Ayanfuri and Tengrela.
> 
> Clearly has dropped through a major level of support here, anything we should be slightly concerned about here chartists? Depending on your viewpoint, some people may look at this as a golden opportunity I suppose. Next stop 65c?  Tbh I'd be flabbergasted to see this roll back into the 40c range, but hey.. these are strange days indeed.



I'm seeing this as another opportunity. Although, I thought that with KMN when it started dropping back from $1.00 ish too.  

Lots of support between 65-75 but who knows. The VIX is still around 30 so the market could make some wild swings in any direction. As we've seen, when the market panick sets in, nothing is saved.

The fundamentals they have presented don't look to have any holes. They just need POG to stay above $600 for a decent return (cash costs under $400) and to get the Capex (it's not that much).



Do we know exactly how many shares on issue now after the $75m raising? About 250m? MC $180? With $80m cash? 7m ounces Au worth $100m? HUH!


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Do we know exactly how many shares on issue now after the $75m raising? About 250m? MC $180? With $80m cash? 7m ounces Au worth $100m? HUH!



OK, 277m shares on issue @ .74 = $204m with about $80m cash gives an EV of $116m. With 7m ounces that is $16 an ounce of EV. Market average between $20 and $30 for explorers. For developers you can double that and for producers they can be anywhere up to $150 an ounce. Needs the Capex, but this is going to be producing 300k oz au pa in a few years. Is this a no-brainer, or have I no brain?


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> OK, 277m shares on issue @ .74 = $204m with about $80m cash gives an EV of $116m. With 7m ounces that is $16 an ounce of EV. Market average between $20 and $30 for explorers. For developers you can double that and for producers they can be anywhere up to $150 an ounce. Needs the Capex, but this is going to be producing 300k oz au pa in a few years. Is this a no-brainer, or have I no brain?




Trust your instinct kennas - it's a no-brainer  With that cash in the bank there is minimal risk that they would not get Capex funding, and the gold's all there waiting to be dug up.  

On those numbers;  $1 a share gives $200m EV or $30 an ounce,

within what 6 months max they move to being a developer (double to $2 SP) 

and another 6-12 months makes them a producer (say double again $4 SP)

Given 74c at the mo, you gotta be loading up on the dips IMO!!  I know I am


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> OK, 277m shares on issue @ .74 = $204m with about $80m cash gives an EV of $116m. With 7m ounces that is $16 an ounce of EV. Market average between $20 and $30 for explorers. For developers you can double that and for producers they can be anywhere up to $150 an ounce. Needs the Capex, but this is going to be producing 300k oz au pa in a few years. Is this a no-brainer, or have I no brain?




Mate the only no-brainer here is the fact that Ashanti Goldfields should probably have never gotten rid of the Ayanfuri project in the first place . (I daresay there might be a few Ashanti Goldfields Exploration Geo's on the breadline now). Remember when PRU acquired this in June 2006, the Resource Base for Ayanfuri was a mere *0.2Moz*, which in 3 years has* increased by 5Moz*. There nay be some nay-sayers out there, but unless PRU have been feeding the market verbal effluent for 3 years, I'm a believer.

The other thing to note is that of the 19 known deposits within the Ayanfuri Camp, PRU have only focussed on developing and drilling out 7 of them. Granted, many of them may end up being smaller than Fetish or Abna-Af-Gap-Fobinso, but with no apparent information on the depth potential of these deposits, who can say for sure into they put some holes into them? So the upside here is still potentially massive.

My holding average is 61c, it's a bit like trying to catch a falling knife right now, but hopefully we will see some support around the 72-75c mark.


----------



## JnrTrader

perhaps PRU now holding the 70c line and with the feas due this month ,this might be a good time to get in


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## Sean K

Looks like we might get a more steady flow of news over the next few months. Been pretty quiet since the placement. 



> *UPDATE - WEST AFRICAN GOLD PROJECTS*
> Ramp-up of Exploration in Ghana and Ivory Coast
> 
> HIGHLIGHTS
> • 10,000m of drilling completed at Tengrela in June, up from 4,250m in May
> • May drill intercepts from Tengrela include 42m at 3.6g/t and 10m at 6.9g/t Au
> • Perseus will have six rigs operating, up from two in June
> • Soil programs are generating numerous new drill targets
> • The Ayanfuri feasibility study is in on track for release in July




10,000m of drilling in June....
DFS due in the next 2 weeks...


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Looks like we might get a more steady flow of news over the next few months. Been pretty quiet since the placement.




Has been quiet since the share placement on the announcement front, but clearly pretty busy on the ground in Africa. They're in a very strong position financially, and can clearly afford to fast-track the development phase and the more regional scale exploration, while hopefully keeping the market informed. 

Sissingue could still grow substansially, as the current Resource is only confined to about 1km of that 4km-long corridor. Have a look at the number of soil anomalies along strike that have yet to be drill tested.


----------



## Sean K

DFS out, and on the way to development.


*Ayanfuri Gold Project Feasibility Study Confirms Robust Economics*

The Directors of Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX Code: PRU) (“Perseus”) are pleased to announce the results of the Definitive Feasibility Study (“the DFS”) for the Ayanfuri Gold Project in Ghana.

The DFS, managed by Mintrex, confirms the attractive project economics previously indicated by earlier studies.

Highlights of the DFS include:

 220,000ozpa production for the first four years
 Initial 10 year mine life
 EBITDA for first three years aggregate US$284M
 Payback period of 1 year 7 months at US$850 gold price


Still off the radar for most investors imo.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Seems that way Kennas.  Everything seems positive in the DFS and looks like it should get the funding it deserves.

Stage 2 will bring new reserves also, so that should help the short term prospects.

Long term things seem very rosy - PRU are certainly on track to becoming a producer.


----------



## jman2007

Yep looked pretty positive to me too, in fact extremely positive. At least now they have a base-case scenario with which to approach the banks with. Seems like a very long construction period though, Q1 2010 with production commencing Q3 2011?  Still not completely onside with the market yet though, DFS's can also trigger bizarre market reactions - the recent IGR shellacking as an example!


----------



## exgeo

Headline from research note by Warwick Grigor at BGF Equities, released today:


> Investment Perspective: The release of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is a major step along the path to finance and development. It is a challenging task to finalise a DFS when the resource base is expanding so strongly. An additional 3.2 mill. oz have to be brought into a Stage Two study. This will provide substanitally improved numbers and could point to a post-commissioning expansion up to 7 mtpa for 300,000 oz p.a. of gold. Importantly, the DFS released today confirms the size and the potential profitability, demonstrating that it is one of the leading ASX-listed emerging gold producers. The Company is currently working on the 43-101 statement in preparation for an anticpated Canadian listing, tentatively scheduled for later this year. Given the premiums at which its peer group is trading in Toronto, relative to PRU, we expect strong interest and a higher share price over the coming months. The Bottom Line: Updating the models for todayʼs DFS figures, Ayanfuri has a pre-tax NPV of $2.27/share. Add the value of Tengrela ($0.74/share) and cash of $80m and the shares still have considerable upside from these levels.



....................................................


----------



## Sean K

PRU and AZM get a mention in the one article. 

Cheers Matt. 

(although you need to read up on AZM, it already has 2 maiden resources, they're looking to upgrade them)

Going into development PRU really should be trading at a higher EV to oz au multiple. Explorers ave $30, developers $50 plus, and miners $100-$150 an ounce.

PRU have 7m ounces all up. 

300m on issue @ 75 c = $225 less cash $78m = $147m EV. Gives $21 an ounce value.

Compare to another W African explorer GRY:
166m@30c = 49.8 less cash 12m = 37.8m EV
820k oz au = $46 an ounce.
Has huge exploration upside, but double the value per ounce of PRU?

If you slap the $50 an ounce projection on PRU that's a $350m EV, or (discount the cash elm) or $1.16 a share. 

That's approximately what it should be trading at right now imo. Once into production, slap the $100 an ounce value on them. 


*Perseus reveals gold target *
Matt Chambers | July 30, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

GHANA-focussed gold hopeful Perseus has declared a maiden resource of 2.14 million tonnes of gold at its Ayanfuri project, which it hopes to have in production in the third quarter of 2011.

A definitive feasibility study shows a $148 million open pit mine development could produce 192,000 ounces a year for 10 years at an average operating cost of $US494 an ounce. 

In the first four years, production would be about 220,000 ounces a year, while costs would be $US392 an ounce in the first year. 

Perseus, who wants to start construction this year, fell a little on the news and was recently down 2c at 74c. 

This could be due to a little disappointment in the numbers. 

In April, Perseus was flagging a $134 million mine that would produce at $US354 an ounce in the first five years. 

Still in the small West African nation, Azumah Resources (named after Ghana’s favourite boxing son) released new drill results for its WA Gold project, where it is hoping to get a maiden resource by the end of the year. 

An RC drilling program there intersected, wide high-grade oxide gold mineralisation at the Kunche prospect and identified two new zones of shallow gold mineralisation nearby at Bepkong North and Kunche West. 

Intersects included 29m at 4.02g/t gold from 6m intersected in Kunche oxide zone.


(holding PRU, AZM, and GRY)


----------



## Sean K

Another $2.75 target slapped on this turtle.


*Perseus perceived to be worth its weight in gold*
What the brokers say: Sarah-Jane Tasker | August 03, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

Perseus Mining (PRU); Rodman & Renshaw; Market outperform; Target price of $2.75;Last traded at 75c

PERSEUS has finally received some deserving attention after it revealed a maiden reserve of 2.14 million tonnes of gold at its Ayanfuri project, which it hopes to have in production in the third quarter of 2011. 

The Ghana-focused company said last week that a definitive feasibility study showed a $148 million open pit mine development could produce 192,000 ounces a year for 10 years at an average operating cost of $US494 an ounce. 

Rodman & Renshaw said in its report on the stock that the results of the study confirmed its view that the Ayanfuri project was one of the most attractive underdeveloped projects in West Africa. 

The Ayanfuri project in Ghana is expected to commence commercial production in 2012. 

Perseus holds 90 per cent of the Ayanfuri project, located in the Central Ashanti region of Ghana. 

It is located 25-65km southwest of Obuasi on the Ashanti Gold Belt and is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in West Africa. The project has 5.3 million ounces of gold resources. 

The company says it believes there is significant additional upside potential at Ayanfuri with scope for expanded throughput and gold production within a short time after project commissioning.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

kennas said:


> Another $2.75 target slapped on this turtle.
> 
> 
> *Perseus perceived to be worth its weight in gold*
> What the brokers say: Sarah-Jane Tasker | August 03, 2009
> Article from:  The Australian
> 
> Perseus Mining (PRU); Rodman & Renshaw; Market outperform; Target price of $2.75;Last traded at 75c
> 
> PERSEUS has finally received some deserving attention after it revealed a maiden reserve of 2.14 million tonnes ......




Sarah Jane may need to check her copy.  If only PRU were sat on 2.14 million tonnes of gold reserve.

However, this is one of a number of positive broker reports for PRU.  Expect to see a rocket up it soon.  

Also more reserves are expected in phase 2 of the feasibilty report, so other than a collapse in the POG I fail to see any downside.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Had no idea this was coming up.  Mark Calderwood on the Ayanfuri Feasibility Study.  http://www.brr.com.au/asx/PRU/perseus-mining-limited/

I can’t listen at work, I’ll have to wait till I get home.  The latest presentation from Mark was pretty good.


----------



## JnrTrader

i think everyone is starting to realise the true potential of PRU.a huge increase in demand today, hopefully this can continue


----------



## Sean K

Just rechecking trough PRU's last anns to see what news might be coming up, to potentially add value. Several rigs seem to be drilling both projects at the moment, and results from previous drilling at Tengrela should become available. The resource there is bound to grow, but not sure when another resource estimate is planned. Most focus seems to be on Ayanfuri and Stage 2 DFS to bring more ounces into the Reserve category to improve the robustness of the project. Not sure why they can't just start running on the DFS released. It clearly shows that it's feasable now without additional ounces. Just buy a mill and start digging PRU!!

This has got takeover written all over it imo.

The recent review by BGF indicates these possible price drivers: 

*Share Price Drivers and Forthcoming News Flow*

We always have to be mindful that gold companies can go into a “black hole” once a DFS study is finished and financing negotiations commence, so what is the news flow that will keep Perseus in the headlines? We can look
forward to the following;

• Conversion of more resources to the reserve category at Ayanfuri
• Announcement of tenders opening for construction of the project and commitment to long lead items
• Progression of the Canadian listing plans and the release of the 43-101 statement in late August/early September
• Increased research coverage in Australia and Canada (very few brokers cover it in Australia, other than BGF)
• Pre-feasibility study results on Tengrela, in the Ivory Coast (130,000 oz p.a.)
• Exploration drilling results from Tengrela (moving from two to four rigs, drilling commencing now)
• Continued drilling at Ayanfuri with two rigs about to recommence drilling

And:

It is only a matter of time before the suitor moves on PRU. The increasing reserves and the extra confidence following the DFS is shortening the odds of a takeover bid as every day passes.


----------



## Sean K

Just checking a presentation by Adamus comparing reserve ounces to EV compared to other W African goldies and the range seems to be between $170 and $380 for the more advanced projects.

PRU have about 300m on issue @ 80c = $240 with $75m cash gives EV $165.

2.1m reserves gives an EV to reserves of $78.

The reserves are likely to be doubled at least over time so a future EV to Reserves of about $40 makes it look way cheap compared to these others. 

Must be some other factors as to why it's trading so cheaply. Grades are pretty low maybe, but not too much lower.


----------



## Sean K

Fundamentals seem pretty clear here. Pretty good on a comparitive basis, but maybe it's the stage of the cycle we're in that makes this under loved. Perhaps difficulty in future project financing is the issue. 

Has taken a shalacking the past couple of days after approaching long term significant hurdle at $1.00 ish. Perhaps only general market strength and/or POG breakthrough $1050 ish will push it through. Or, maybe a surprise number from the Tengrela upgrade. Would have to be double I reckon to make the market wake up.

I hope that isn't a potential H&S neckline there. eeek


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Fundamentals seem pretty clear here. Pretty good on a comparitive basis, but maybe it's the stage of the cycle we're in that makes this under loved. *Perhaps difficulty in future project financing is the issue. *
> Has taken a shalacking the past couple of days after approaching long term significant hurdle at $1.00 ish. Perhaps only general market strength and/or POG breakthrough $1050 ish will push it through. Or, maybe a surprise number from the Tengrela upgrade. Would have to be double I reckon to make the market wake up.
> 
> I hope that isn't a potential H&S neckline there. eeek




C'mon kennas, difficulty in financing when they already have about half the cash they need to get Ayanfuri up and running??  Agreed though it seems to have run into resistance - was hoping to see it break that magic $1 but looks like might be waiting a bit longer


----------



## Sean K

jonojpsg said:


> C'mon kennas, difficulty in financing when they already have about half the cash they need to get Ayanfuri up and running??  Agreed though it seems to have run into resistance - was hoping to see it break that magic $1 but looks like might be waiting a bit longer



I'm just clutching at straws to understand why it seems to be so undervalued. Maybe it's the amount of low grade stuff they're including in the overall resource. Maybe it's just the overall negativeness of the market. Although, this has recovered from about 30c, which was a remarkable low point for a company with so much gold in the ground. 

I am cautious on this because another company I researched for some time has about 12m oz au equiv in the ground, open pit, low grade, low strip ratio, and has turned into a complete turkey, and I doubt it will ever mine.

Sometimes big resources never get to production, for various reasons. 

On the sum of it, you'd still have to think this will be a miner and eventually be rated accordingly. ie, over $100 an ounce.

Surprised we haven't had any new drill results out. There was a large campaign in June, and on 14 July they stated a 'steady flow of drill results'. Maybe I'm being impatient.


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> I am cautious on this because another company I researched for some time has about 12m oz au equiv in the ground, open pit, low grade, low strip ratio, and has turned into a complete turkey, and I doubt it will ever mine.




You talking KMN?  I have followed your comments on that thread and yes, I can imagine how you would be cautoius after watching them stuff things up!!  Is the comparison valid though - eg does the fact that KMN grades included Ag and others? whereas PRU is all Au?  That is if it is KMN you're referring to?


----------



## shag

jonojpsg said:


> You talking KMN?  I have followed your comments on that thread and yes, I can imagine how you would be cautoius after watching them stuff things up!!  Is the comparison valid though - eg does the fact that KMN grades included Ag and others? whereas PRU is all Au?  That is if it is KMN you're referring to?




isn't silver/ag better than gold presently?
i certainly like the silver market anyway.
i think the whole story is lack of total full disclosure. logistics, other variables etc that some are privy too at times. things only geo's/managers and alike sometimes know or suspect.


----------



## Sean K

Yes, was KMN, I'm still in disbelief than San Anton is sitting there unmined. Yes, lots of Cu and Ag as well, but LOTS! It's a bloody hill that just needs to be scraped away. Must be something wrong with the metallurgy.


----------



## Sean K

PRU seem to be advancing their project financing ok.

Bought some Puts as a hedge. Sounds like a reasonable plan to me. 

By reading this ann I get the impression that are after predominantly debt financing for the first project and not going to issue shares. I thought it might have been a half and half type deal. 


*COMMENCEMENT OF AYANFURI PROJECT FINANCE STRATEGY*

Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) is pleased to announce it has taken an initial step in the execution of its Ayanfuri Project finance strategy by purchasing gold put options (“Puts”) maturing over 2012 and 2013 for US$9.1 million. The Puts are over 100,000 ounces, representing approximately 22% of planned production in that period, enabling the Company to sell those ounces at US$850/oz should the prevailing price be less, or at prevailing spot prices if
they are higher.

Purchasing the Puts at a time of relatively low volatility and the prevailing gold price of $956 per ounce has provided a cost effective method of underpinning Perseus’s project financing objectives whilst maintaining maximum flexibility and upside.

The Company through its financing advisor Noah’s Rule is currently in discussions with leading project financiers in relation to securing debt funding for the 220,000 ounce per annum Ayanfuri gold project in Ghana.

Importantly, by acquiring the Puts in advance of completing negotiations with financiers the Company has greatly enhanced the overall bankability of the project in all future price scenarios and should substantially reduce the level of committed hedging that might otherwise be required. The Puts are also a liquid asset of the Company that can be sold at any time prior to their expiry.


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> PRU seem to be advancing their project financing ok.
> 
> Bought some Puts as a hedge. Sounds like a reasonable plan to me.
> 
> By reading this ann I get the impression that are after predominantly debt financing for the first project and not going to issue shares. I thought it might have been a half and half type deal.




They have pretty much done that already haven't they though?  I mean raising $75m was a decent chunk of what they need, so it makes sense to go debt funding, especially when payback is 1.5 years!!  Why dilute if you don't need to?  Then once Ayanfuri is up and running, simple to start up Tengrela using cashflow from that.  Simple, and yet still waiting for the "inevitable" rerating


----------



## ColB

This *Turtle* possibly ready to go Kenna!

Gold up USD $23.11 overnight to $977.81  [Source: www.goldprice.org/]

And I'd think we be happy to have this new bloke on board [see below]



> ASX Release 2 September 2009
> 
> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) is pleased to announce the appointment of T. Sean Harvey as a non-executive director. Based in Toronto, Canada, Mr. Harvey will use his extensive experience in the investment banking and resource sectors to assist the Company as it seeks to broaden global
> market awareness of its evolution into a West African gold producer.
> 
> For the last 10 years Mr. Harvey has been a senior officer or director of various mining companies. Sean was the founder and remains Chairman of Andina Minerals Inc., a development stage company with *a multi-million ounce gold deposit in Chile*. Mr. Harvey is also currently the sole
> Canadian director for Perth-based Moto Goldmines Limited, a Toronto Stock Exchange-listed company which is working towards development and production at the large Moto gold project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Mr. Harvey also served as President and CEO of: Orvana Minerals Inc., TXV Gold Inc. through its sale to Kinross in 2003 and Atlantico Gold through its sale of its Amapari Project to Wheaton River Minerals (now Goldcorp) in 2004. Prior to working directly for mining companies, Mr. Harvey spent over 10 years in the investment banking and merchant banking areas, primarily focused on the mining sector.




Disclosure:  I hold


----------



## Sean K

ColB said:


> This *Turtle* possibly ready to go Kenna!
> 
> Gold up USD $23.11 overnight to $977.81  [Source: www.goldprice.org/]
> 
> And I'd think we be happy to have this new bloke on board [see below]
> 
> Disclosure:  I hold



Yeah looks handy. Might be useful if/when they are get their act together to list in Canada.

Good move on gold, but hasn't broken through the large triangle it's been ranging in for the past few months. 

Perhaps the updated Trengela resource will provide a catalyst.


----------



## Sean K

A good few days for PRU but just following POG up really. Sitting in that 90-$1.00 resistance zone. I'm looking forward to it eventually getting over that and that line forming up as support. Should technically release it I suspect, but who knows with the market at the moment. 

I was expecting more news in late August regarding drilling at Sissingue and exploration around Tengrela. They were also drilling under a few of their deposits at Ayanfuri to test them out. Must be close to getting some more results out. Also very soon should be an update on Canadian listing. 

What BGF was expecting this quarter:

*Share Price Drivers and Forthcoming News Flow*

We always have to be mindful that gold companies can go into a “black hole” once a DFS study is finished and financing negotiations commence, so what is the news flow that will keep Perseus in the headlines? We can look
forward to the following;

• Conversion of more resources to the reserve category at Ayanfuri
• Announcement of tenders opening for construction of the project and commitment to long lead items
• Progression of the Canadian listing plans and the release of the 43-101 statement in late August/early September
• Increased research coverage in Australia and Canada (very few brokers cover it in Australia, other than BGF)
• Pre-feasibility study results on Tengrela, in the Ivory Coast (130,000 oz p.a.)
• Exploration drilling results from Tengrela (moving from two to four rigs, drilling commencing now)
• Continued drilling at Ayanfuri with two rigs about to recommence drilling


----------



## jonojpsg

Hey kennas, you noticed this today?  Up over $1 and sellers drying up, especially looking at the prices they're after!  Maybe we're seeing the move up that they deserve  Certainly hope so anyway


----------



## Sean K

jonojpsg said:


> Hey kennas, you noticed this today?  Up over $1 and sellers drying up, especially looking at the prices they're after!  Maybe we're seeing the move up that they deserve  Certainly hope so anyway



Significant move and has increased my net wealth by a few K, so I am happy. Sellers dried up for the minute, but it's just intra day.

I think this is probably just POG related, so I am cautious. 

I will be more interested in adding more once the $1.00 ish line is support or they have proved up some more resources. 

Longer term, I agree with the reports from the analysts pasted in here.

But, I am cautious of the overall market.


----------



## Donga

Does anyone know about the upcoming Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference in New York this week? Is it any more effective than our industry conferences? Pleased to see PRU, Advent (owned by MMR), and ESG are presenting as well as a number of other Aussie companies including AOE, BOW, ADU, AGD, CTO and BRM. Alan Greenspan is keynote speaker  see program http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com/conferences?id=32


----------



## Stagman

kennas said:


> Significant move and has increased my net wealth by a few K, so I am happy. Sellers dried up for the minute, but it's just intra day.
> 
> I think this is probably just POG related, so I am cautious.
> 
> I will be more interested in adding more once the $1.00 ish line is support or they have proved up some more resources.
> 
> Longer term, I agree with the reports from the analysts pasted in here.
> 
> But, I am cautious of the overall market.




There's plenty of talk around that Perseus Mining is on Lihir Gold's radar as a takeover target, if it's true expect the sp to soar towards $2 in the short term.


----------



## prawn_86

Stagman said:


> There's plenty of talk around that Perseus Mining is on Lihir Gold's radar as a takeover target, if it's true expect the sp to soar towards $2 in the short term.




Do you have a source for that? Or is it just an internet rumour to try and ramp the price? 

Here at ASF we deal in facts, so please provide a link/evidence etc


----------



## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> Do you have a source for that? Or is it just an internet rumour to try and ramp the price?
> 
> Here at ASF we deal in facts, so please provide a link/evidence etc



There has been some press and research from BGF saying that they are probably on the radar for a TO, but the name mentioned previously was Redback, not Lihir. Saying it will sore to $2.00 is just crap, and belongs on HC or RC. You were very kind in leaving that post there Prawn.


----------



## Stagman

kennas said:


> There has been some press and research from BGF saying that they are probably on the radar for a TO, but the name mentioned previously was Redback, not Lihir. Saying it will sore to $2.00 is just crap, and belongs on HC or RC. You were very kind in leaving that post there Prawn.




And a very warm welcome to ASF Stagman, it's really good of you to share some information, it's a pity that you won't be coming back in a hurry.

Perseus surges as Lihir takeover talk intensifies

BARRY FITZGERALD
September 8, 2009 .

THE market has decided that Lihir Gold has Perseus Mining in its takeover sights as part of Lihir's plan to become a million-ounce-a-year gold producer from multiple mines in West Africa.

Perseus shares rose 17.5 ¢, or 19 per cent, to $1.09 yesterday, valuing the company at $340 million. A 30 per cent premium in a takeover bid would push Perseus' value to $444 million.

Lihir has not said it is targeting Perseus, but from the market's viewpoint it did the next best thing by outlining its West African growth ambitions in an investor briefing on Friday.

Lihir is a 1 to 1.2 million-ounce-a-year producer from its mine on Lihir Island in Papua New Guinea, Mount Rawdon in Queensland and the new Bonikro mine in Ivory Coast, West Africa.

Bonikro and Mount Rawdon were acquired last year through the $1 billion takeover of Equigold. Bonikro's planned output is an average of 120,000 ounces of gold annually, with Lihir telling analysts it wanted to grow its West African production base to close to a million ounces a year by 2018.

That growth would come from an expansion at Bonikro, opportunities created by the group's aggressive exploration program across West Africa and from two unidentified merger and acquisition opportunities.

Analysts said Perseus ticked all of Lihir's ''strategic assessment criteria'' covering the scale of operations, the mine life, the location and the cost.

Lihir said acquisitions would have to be producers of more than 200,000 ounces of gold annually. Perseus plans to be producing 220,000 ounces a year from its Ayanfuri mine when it is developed in 2011. The mine life of the 5.2 million-ounce deposit is also the 10 years-plus that Lihir wants.

Ayanfuri is in Ghana, the most stable of the West African nations, ticking another box for Lihir. Perseus would also deliver Lihir the proposed 100,000-ounces-a-year Tengrela gold project in Ivory Coast, providing the ''operational synergies'' Lihir wants from any acquisition.

Perseus fits Lihir's suggested cost for its proposed bolt-on acquisitions in West Africa of $US200 million ($A235 million) to $US700 million.

A first port of call for Lihir in any pursuit of Perseus would be Macquarie Bank. Macquarie owns 13 per cent of the stock. Melbourne fund manager Acorn is the next biggest with 7 per cent.


----------



## Sean K

Stagman said:


> And a very warm welcome to ASF Stagman, it's really good of you to share some information, it's a pity that you won't be coming back in a hurry.



Aren't you even going to make an attempt to justify the 'sore towards $2.00 in short time' analysis? Thought not.


----------



## Stagman

kennas said:


> Aren't you even going to make an attempt to justify the 'sore towards $2.00 in short time' analysis? Thought not.




"Perseus shares rose 17.5 ¢, or 19 per cent, to $1.09 yesterday, valuing the company at $340 million. A 30 per cent premium in a takeover bid would push Perseus' value to $444 million."

It might pay to read posts a little more carefully, I know that you must be pretty close to all the PRU action over there in Peru.


----------



## Sean K

Stagman said:


> "Perseus shares rose 17.5 ¢, or 19 per cent, to $1.09 yesterday, valuing the company at $340 million. A 30 per cent premium in a takeover bid would push Perseus' value to $444 million."
> 
> It might pay to read posts a little more carefully, I know that you must be pretty close to all the PRU action over there in Peru.



30% on top of $1.09 is $2.00? 

OK

Thanks. 

Please note, ASF has strong views on posting price targets. If you post one, it MUST come wih some attempted FA and/or TA.


----------



## Sean K

Nice break up from PRU on the back of POG gains and the Lihir speculation. Longer term looks like the significant resistance across 90c to $1.00 may be broken, but POG failing at $1000 could put a dampner on things. Potential for a pole and pennant to shape up which would be a nice outcome.


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Nice break up from PRU on the back of POG gains and the Lihir speculation. Longer term looks like the significant resistance across 90c to $1.00 may be broken, but POG failing at $1000 could put a dampner on things. Potential for a pole and pennant to shape up which would be a nice outcome.




And that would then make for a target of what, $1.40ish?  Funny that, about 30% above $1.10 - where did I read that


----------



## jonojpsg

Hey y'all, there's an announcement out!  Some NICE hits at Tengrela, with a mouthwatering 20m @ 65g/t as well as a couple of hits *4.5km* along strike *If *that gets filled in, that would look pretty impressive IMO.

ANyway, SP is running up somewhat, and if gold holds above $1k then this will definitely be a basis for some strong upwards moves over the next couple of months.


----------



## Sean K

jonojpsg said:


> Hey y'all, there's an announcement out!  Some NICE hits at Tengrela, with a mouthwatering 20m @ 65g/t as well as a couple of hits *4.5km* along strike *If *that gets filled in, that would look pretty impressive IMO.
> 
> ANyway, SP is running up somewhat, and if gold holds above $1k then this will definitely be a basis for some strong upwards moves over the next couple of months.



Holy ****, that is an amazing intersection for West Africa. Quite incredible. 

Yes, if that gets filled in, we're looking at possibly millions of ounces. 

This is all outside the current resource right? And all within about 100m of surface? 

Some of the other hits are just as staggering, see below. 

1m at 217g/t? That's bonanza stuff.

Surprised the stock didn't run more on this.

MD's comment:

"These grades have the potential to enhance the feasability study..." HUH? Enhance? lol

And lol that this is 6 days after a 'please explain'.


----------



## shag

well, well, theres another please explain re the obviously leaked 'bonanza' grades and its subsequent 30 odd pc run, imo.
its about time we lost the hogans heros approach to insider trading.
i was holding but its just rediculous in magnitude and frequency.


----------



## Sean K

If LGL aren't running the ruler over them then the media is saying the bloody well should.


*Why the Ivory Coast is the factor to watch*
Robin Bromby | September 16, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian

SHARES in Perseus Mining took a big leap earlier this month when speculators thought they detected hints that Lihir Gold was after the Ghanaian explorer.

The assumption was that Lihir saw the 5 million-plus ounce gold resource at Perseus's project in Ghana as a prize worth snatching. Which it probably is - and may well be in Lihir’s mind despite its protestations of not looking for acquisitions.

But the main game may actually be in neighbouring Ivory Coast. Lihir has the Bonriko gold mine there, a property it picked up through the merger with Equigold. 

Overnight the Dow Jones Newswires reports that Lihir’s chief financial officer Phil Baker said his company had its eye on increasing its assets in West Africa. "We didn't go (to the Ivory Coast) to run Bonikro at 120,000 ounces a year," said Baker. He added though that Lihir has no immediate plans for acquisitions in West Africa and is rather focusing on building its existing business. 

The story also reports these words from Lihir flak Joe Dowling: "We're working hard to turn around (the perception of Lihir) as an underperformer." 

Bonikro began commercial gold production in August 2008. For the first full year, production is expected to be approximately 140,000 ounces, of which LGL’s share is forecast at approximately 120,000oz. Subsequent average annual gold production is expected to be approximately 120,000oz, of which LGL’s share is expected to be around 100,000oz. 

So why is Ivory Coast significant? 

Well, because of probably the most under-reported news of the week. 

Perseus said it had intercepted some big gold grades at its Tengrela project in Ivory Coast. These included 20m at 65.5 grams/tonne, 86m at 3.2g/t and 78m at 1.7g/t. The explorer has a feasibility study in progress at present. 

So, here we have a company that has 5.3 million ounces of gold in Ghana and now looks as if it is on the track of another lode in the country next door. 

Perseus must be the subject of intense scrutiny by more than one potential acquirer. And mark those words: Lihir did not go to Ivory Coast to just mine 120,000oz a year. The comment was in the context of doing more exploration at Bonriko, but the Lihir people can’t help but keep looking with watering mouths at Perseus. That acquisition would surely erase the memory of the Ballarat Goldfields disastrous buy. 

And not that Tengrela is a new story. It was owned in the late 1990s by the former Leo Shield Exploration, now Caspian Oil & Gas (CIG) via listed life as Shield Telecommunications and then Afminex. Unfortunately for Leo Shield, South Africa’s Randgold withdrew from its joint venture in 1999 after spending $780,000, saying it found geochemical results disappointing. 

It’s always nice to see someone else make disastrous moves. You can just taste the schadenfreude - only the Germans would have a word that means the malicious enjoyment of other’s misfortunes. 

Someone at Randgold must be kicking themselves.


----------



## jman2007

What the?!...

This is going absolutely mental this morning, touching on $1.30 as I write. Intraday trading I know, so hard to read too much into it just yet. Selling side has dried up markedly today however. Lol good to see Randgold take a custard pie right in the face, they'll be a very unhappy group of campers I'm sure.


----------



## swm79

jman2007 said:


> What the?!...
> 
> This is going absolutely mental this morning, touching on $1.30 as I write. Intraday trading I know, so hard to read too much into it just yet. Selling side has dried up markedly today however. Lol good to see Randgold take a custard pie right in the face, they'll be a very unhappy group of campers I'm sure.




probably a result of this: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26081172-15023,00.html

in the australian

also Rodman and Renshaw put a $2.75 price target on it in early august - which is also linked in The Australian's website


----------



## jman2007

swm79 said:


> probably a result of this: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26081172-15023,00.html
> 
> in the australian
> 
> also Rodman and Renshaw put a $2.75 price target on it in early august - which is also linked in The Australian's website




Well I'm also wondering if this is the long awaited market re-evaluation that PRU holders have been discussing for a while, dammit those grades at Tengrela released the other day would be bonanza underground grades - but the fact that they're relatively close to surface suggests that may have hit on to some kind of high-grade shoot perhaps.

I'm pretty sure that Sissingue is currently just based on a strike length of 1km, and the main anomaly which looks to have been drilled out fairly extensively also looks like it should definitely contribute a lot more ounces by Dec09. What other people probably realise, is that the wide-spaced RAB drilling has really only just scratched the surface in terms of what might be contained further along strike to the north. Realistically, Tengrela could turn into a very significant camp.


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> Well I'm also wondering if this is the long awaited market re-evaluation that PRU holders have been discussing for a while, dammit those grades at Tengrela released the other day would be bonanza underground grades - but the fact that they're relatively close to surface suggests that may have hit on to some kind of high-grade shoot perhaps.
> 
> I'm pretty sure that Sissingue is currently just based on a strike length of 1km, and the main anomaly which looks to have been drilled out fairly extensively also looks like it should definitely contribute a lot more ounces by Dec09. What other people probably realise, is that the wide-spaced RAB drilling has really only just scratched the surface in terms of what might be contained further along strike to the north. Realistically, Tengrela could turn into a very significant camp.



Hopefully re-evaluation, but not as cheap as it was a few weeks ago. Golly, remember 40c or so? 

In regard to bonanza grades underground, what's the geo perspective here. Closer to surface they won't continue to depth? 

Agree on exploration potential, Tengrela could end up to be a much larger resource. Maybe the 100k pa target might have to be revised up. 

With the additional exploration success at Ayanfuri, they could be in a position to upgrade mills to be able to produce a few more ounces a year, lets say 250k. So, lets pluck a 500k oz producer in a few years. 

With the size of the deposits why not?

LGL paid $1b for EQI, for 150k a year. Plus exploration potential.


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Hopefully re-evaluation, but not as cheap as it was a few weeks ago. Golly, remember 40c or so?
> 
> In regard to bonanza grades underground, what's the geo perspective here. Closer to surface they won't continue to depth?
> 
> Agree on exploration potential, Tengrela could end up to be a much larger resource. Maybe the 100k pa target might have to be revised up.




I think the key point here is that the hole ended in mineralisation, or is "open ended" as PRU noted. So as far as PRU and we know at this stage, the mineralisation continues unabated in the down-dip direction for some unkown distance. What is interesting is that the grades in the hole are interesting but not spectacular in their tenor to 58m, but suddenly become spectacular from that depth to the eoh. Seriously, perhaps less than 1% of Geo's would see those kind of grades in their careers!  

Unfortunately the results suggest a cetain lack of undestanding and/or professionalism from the rig geologist that the hole was ended where it was, as there would certainly have been visible gold in the drill cuttings. Sometimes junior geologists lack the confidence to extend a hole past its planned depth however. 

PRU didn't provide any kind of explanation as to why there was such a blow-out in the grades, it suggests either a rock type change, or more likely, that a significant structure such as a shear zone or perhaps a fault may have been intersected. It is likely that the rocks will still be quite strongly weathered at this depth, so if they twin this hole with a diamond hole it may be difficult to get meaningful orientations from the core. My guess would be that the weathering profile is well-developed in this belt, which would enable an open pit to be mined to at least 90-100m. 

if they intersect this lode again at depth with diamond core, then expect to see several cheesy photos of some Board members proudly holding up bits of core with lots of nice yellow bits in it


----------



## Sean K

Quite bizaar they didn't keep drilling on SRC637. The last 2 m was at 39 g/t. Surely visual inspection would have arranted a few more meters? Is that possible? Maybe there's another reason why they stopped. 

Fingers crossed that 4.5km step out hole with 4m @ 10g/t means the 4.5 between is also holding some yellow stuff.

This is still looking cheapish on the rule of thumb EV to Au measure:

PRU 300m@1.32 = $396m mc - $62m cash = $334 EV / 7.1m oz = $47 an ounce for a near developer.
GRY 176m@.445 = $78m mc - $12m cash = $66 EV / 1.1m = $60 an ounce for an explorer.
AZM 154@.17 = $26 mc - $6m cas = $20 EV / .750m = $15 an ounce for a junior explorer.

Hm, actually. Perhaps it's right and GRY is overpriced and AZM is undervalued. lol

Wonder what comes next? Ayanfuri drilling results? Sissingue resource update? 

Chart wise, you'd expect some significant resistance at previous all time highs. On a correction significant support is a fair way down below perhaps. It's run pretty quick since breaking $1.00.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Nice break up from PRU on the back of POG gains and the Lihir speculation. Longer term looks like the significant resistance across 90c to $1.00 may be broken, but POG failing at $1000 could put a dampner on things. Potential for a pole and pennant to shape up which would be a nice outcome.



The pole and pennant target reached on the breakout, and exceeded. Another one on the cards here. Couldn't happen twice could it? Probably not. This is more just trianglish anyway. Watch and shoot.


----------



## johannlo

Not liking the spinning top (also forming a harami w/ Thursday's white candle) that confirms resistance at 1.36. I think we'll be sideways for the very short term. 

If its forming a triangle, for what its worth I punched the stats we do know (e.g. can't know breakout volume till it happens) into Bulkowski's formulas and came up with +4 so far


----------



## Sean K

johannlo said:


> Not liking the spinning top (also forming a harami w/ Thursday's white candle) that confirms resistance at 1.36. I think we'll be sideways for the very short term.



Yes, rejection of $1.35 ish looks ominous. Did a similar thing at 1.16/17, dropped and then went through strongly though.

Market's supposed to open weaker on the back of the US and gold under a K again, so doesn't add up to a break up really does it.

Left wing impetous could be more TO speculation, or an early resource upgrade on Sissingue with numbers larger than expected. If they managed to add another million at 2.5 ish grades it would be exceptional. I'm still surprised those bonanza grades didn't send it further.


----------



## johannlo

I'm too much of a rookie to back my trading guesses w/ a great solid undervalued pick like this one, going to hold until true value unlocks. 

If I was trading I would probably be bailing around 1.30 mark and looking to get back in at 1.15 or 1.20. But you're right, news or more speculation / rumours could make that a risky ploy. Fundamentals are v strong (as you of all people will know lol)


----------



## TabJockey

Announcement today, one of the directors bought another 130k of the stock. 

O.O

I think there might be a few good things announced before christmas


----------



## johannlo

TSX listing pls santa!!!!!!!!!!

A decent bid by lihir would also be nice lol, not that I want to sell out (unless its silly money of course) but would be hilarious

And failing that, a stop to this falling POG


----------



## Sean K

TabJockey said:


> Announcement today, one of the directors bought another 130k of the stock.
> 
> O.O
> 
> I think there might be a few good things announced before christmas



Yes this is great that Sean has forked out some real cash.

He had to really to divert attention from this options issue debarcle.

This is just highway robbery. Shareholders been taken for a ride while directors line their pockets.

What sort of incentive is this?

28 September 2009
The Manager
Company Announcements Office
ASX Ltd
4th Floor, 20 Bridge Street
SYDNEY, NSW 2000

Dear Sir

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND DIRECTOR’S OPTION ISSUE

Perseus Mining Limited advises that its 2009 Annual General Meeting will be held on Friday, 27 November 2009 at the Holiday Inn City Centre, 788 Hay Street, Perth, Western Australia.

Amongst other resolutions to be put to shareholders at that AGM, the Directors will seek approval for the issue of 600,000 options, exercisable at $1.30 each on or before 31 March 2012 to newly appointed director, T Sean Harvey.


*$1.30 each on or before 31 March 2012 *

  

PRU's second really piss me off action in front of their tardiness in the TSX listing. Really poor effort that.


----------



## Ajax

Agree that options exercisable at $1.30 provide no real incentive.

The shares could trade over $1.30 (again) this week. 

From the 2009 Financial statements released this morning:-

Re: Ayanfuri,Ghana

"Infill drilling to upgrade the 3.1Moz of resources outside Ayanfuri’s reserve is expected to result in a reserve increase and support increased throughput scenarios which will be evaluated during the ‘Phase Two Upgrade’study."

Re: Tengrela,Ivory Coast

"There is significant upside resource potential at Sissingue. It is anticipated that resource upgrades will be released in the 2009 – 2010 financial year as resource drilling extends over the open 5 km strike of mineralisation encountered to date at Sissingue and as RC and diamond drilling commences on other prospects at Tengrela defined by RAB drilling."

Re: Grumesa Gold Project,Ghana

"The Grumesa gold project is located 30km east of the Ayanfuri gold project. The Kayeya deposit on the Grumesa licence is a very large low grade Tarkwaian hosted gold deposit that is amenable to heap leach gold extraction. Current resources are 30 million tonnes at 0.8g/t Au. Limited drilling (1,700m) was undertaken on the Kayeya deposit during the Year. The Company will complete the Grumesa feasibility study during the 2009-2010 financial year to assess whether Grumesa may represent a satellite production opportunity, managed from Ayanfuri"

Re: Shareholding in Manas Resources Limited

"Perseus spun out its Kyrgyz gold projects into a new ASX listed company Manas Resources Limited in July 2008, retaining a 42% interest in Manas which diluted to 28% as a result of a fundraising by Manas in July 2009. Manas has a resource base of 870,000oz and significant exploration upside."

Also from 2009 Cash Flow Statement 

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the Financial Year $79,876,095


----------



## Ajax

Goldminers targeting risky nations

From a speech by Newmont Mining Corp CEO Richard O'Brien at Melbourne Mining Club.

news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/gold-companies-targeting-risky-nations-20091002-ggfk.html

"There were only two gold discoveries in 2008 of more than two million ounces each, compared to four in 2007 and about 20 in 1999, Mr O'Brien told a luncheon of the Melbourne Mining Club.

"We tend to go now towards more risky, that is developing, nations or politically challenging nations, for us to find the next level of production," he told the meeting

...

"Mr O'Brien tipped the gold price to trade between $US800 and $US1,200 an ounce during the next two years.

He said the US government was printing cash to stimulate the economy, which could ultimately boost the value of gold.

"Printing money will clearly lead to inflation, it is just when,"


----------



## jonojpsg

Ajax said:


> Goldminers targeting risky nations
> 
> From a speech by Newmont Mining Corp CEO Richard O'Brien at Melbourne Mining Club.
> 
> news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/gold-companies-targeting-risky-nations-20091002-ggfk.html
> 
> "*There were only two gold discoveries in 2008 of more than two million ounces each*, compared to four in 2007 and about 20 in 1999, Mr O'Brien told a luncheon of the Melbourne Mining Club.
> 
> "We tend to go now towards more risky, that is developing, nations or politically challenging nations, for us to find the next level of production," he told the meeting
> 
> ...
> 
> "Mr O'Brien tipped the gold price to trade between $US800 and $US1,200 an ounce during the next two years.
> 
> He said the US government was printing cash to stimulate the economy, which could ultimately boost the value of gold.
> 
> "Printing money will clearly lead to inflation, it is just when,"




I'm assuming that PRU was one of them?  In which case that should make a compelling case for PRU to be on the radar of the biggies?


----------



## Ajax

From Perseus Mining's website

"Ayanfuri (in Ghana)
Perseus holds 650sq km of tenements centred on the Ashanti Gold Belt, including the 120sqkm Ayanfuri Project situated 25-65km south-west of the 60 million ounce Obuasi gold deposit.  

Reserves and Resources

After acquiring an option over the Ayanfuri project in June 2006, Perseus increased gold resources from 200,000oz to 5.3Moz (indicated 3.15Moz; inferred 2.13Moz) by March 2009. The project has significant upside for further resource growth.  A detailed feasibility study completed in July 2009 estimated:

initial gold reserves of 2.13 million ounces;
production averaging 220,000oz p.a. in the first four years;
cash costs (including government royalties) of US$494 per ounce."

There is speculation amongst some punters/forum posters that Perseus Mining's Tengrela deposit in Cote d'Ivoire may end up dwarfing Ayunfuri.


----------



## Sean K

Ann out on Ayanfuri progress, all looks on track. 

*AYANFURI GOLD PROJECT UPDATE*

HIGHLIGHTS

• ‘Fixed lump sum’ tender prices received for process plant engineering contract - three of the four prices were within the DFS estimate.
• Indicative financing term sheets received and negotiations have commenced.
• Preferred engineer and financier expected to be selected in November.
• Draft EIS, DFS presented to Ghanaian Government Authorities.
• Recruitment of key personnel has commenced.


Even with the recent share price increase it still sits pretty undervalued in the scheme of things. Currently trading at $46.5 an ounce to EV. This is about half that of producers with an equivelant resource and even lower than GRY who are an explorer with just 1.1m ounces. The debt they will eventually go into may push their EV down quite a bit, but will it double the EV to Oz comparison. Then throw in the obvious increase in resources over the coming months especially at Sissingue.


----------



## jonojpsg

Hey kennas, just looking at your table it is a bit difficult to pick a comparison for PRU, but I thought maybe CNT might be close?  Similar grades, slightly lower cash costs per oz, obviously different location, almost double the resource but PRU could certainly get there.  

CNT produce by next year (a year ahead of PRU) and EV is about $130/oz compared to PRU at $50/oz.

In reality then, even if PRU didn't increase resource, by next year sometime they should be around double what they are now.  That would be a somewhat conservative take on it assuming they almost definitely will move their resource up, and assuming POG maintains $900+.

Just pondering


----------



## jman2007

Something happening here...

$1.38 got smashed back this morning in early trading, pulled back to $1.30 and is now knocking on the door of $1.40 with an hour to go. I wonder if we'll see a late sell-off towards the close?


----------



## exgeo

The "something happening" maybe BGF Equities Warwick Grigor released another note on PRU today, with a valuation of $2.47. Last line of the commentary reads:







> A billion dollar market capitalisation is almost procedural from here based on two quality gold projects.


----------



## Sean K

Well, this had been a pretty good run for holders and followers on this thread. 

As far as comparisons, I'd be happy with CNT's $130 and ounce.  Bit further advanced and more ounces, but I think PRU will close that gap once they upgrade Sissengue. CNT aiming for 200k ramping up to 500k sounds like the PRU story. Their EV is $1.8b. Billion! PRU $330m. Quite some upside there. 

I like the BGF valuation but always suspect of his calls. He clearly has a vested interest in some stocks he sprewks. However, $2.50 ish is about $100 and ounce EV for PRU, so clearly achievable.

Chart wise, the support lines I drew last page look to be going out of range, but I think will be important for any longer term significant pullback. Some new one's appearing now perhaps for short term swing trading..


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Quite bizaar they didn't keep drilling on SRC637. The last 2 m was at 39 g/t. Surely visual inspection would have arranted a few more meters? Is that possible? Maybe there's another reason why they stopped.




Another thought just occurred to me

It's also possible that the hole was drilled 'down-plunge' of the high-grade shoot, which would mean that the intersection does not actually represent the true thickness, but grossly over-estimates it. Plunge is hard to describe without a diagram, but it means the orientation of the ore body at an angle measured from the horizontal. 

So if the plunge of this shoot was say 60 deg to the south, and the rig was positioned at the correct azimuth i.e. drilling south, and the hole was drilled at 60 deg, it would be possible to get a spectacularly long intersection, even if the true thickness of the body was only say, 5m. Down-plunge holes, accidental or otherwise are often called "Director Specials". 

This is just purely speculation, and I'm not for a minute suggesting they drilled this hole in this way to put a rocket under the sp, but it is just one possible common-sense explanation. The other explanation is that they found the Mother of all Mother lodes! 

But yeh, weird how it was stopped where it was, as I said I suspect a lack of supervision in this case.


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Another thought just occurred to me
> 
> It's also possible that the hole was drilled 'down-plunge' of the high-grade shoot, which would mean that the intersection does not actually represent the true thickness, but grossly over-estimates it. Plunge is hard to describe without a diagram, but it means the orientation of the ore body at an angle measured from the horizontal.
> 
> So if the plunge of this shoot was say 60 deg to the south, and the rig was positioned at the correct azimuth i.e. drilling south, and the hole was drilled at 60 deg, it would be possible to get a spectacularly long intersection, even if the true thickness of the body was only say, 5m. Down-plunge holes, accidental or otherwise are often called "Director Specials".
> 
> This is just purely speculation, and I'm not for a minute suggesting they drilled this hole in this way to put a rocket under the sp, but it is just one possible common-sense explanation. The other explanation is that they found the Mother of all Mother lodes!
> 
> But yeh, weird how it was stopped where it was, as I said I suspect a lack of supervision in this case.




Interesting Jman

I guess half of the people investing money will not decipher the technicalities but will pump the share price on the half full and half empty result published by PRU management. That will do the job as they have told you what they thought and investor beware. I am amazed how the result can be interpreted and to be a selfish holder of PRU I wish you are wrong this time (but I got a suspicion you could be on the money )

Disclaimer : I still have part of PRU intact.


----------



## Ajax

Australian Gold Conference at Novatel, Langley, Perth.

Presenters on Tuesday 13 October include:-

COMPANY PRESENTATIONS – PRODUCTION & EXPLORATION UPDATES
3:40pm Perseus Mining Limited 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Calderwood, Managing Director


----------



## Sean K

Not a bad break, would have been nice to be in a bit earlier. he he

Traders might be looking to lock in some profits again about here, so be prepared for a halt, or even another stupid ASX 'please explain'. Yes, the stock is going up, because it's fvckin good you idiots!!

New support around these lines.

Can USD keep disintegrating and POG keep running though?


----------



## awg

A question about Perseus.

As Perseus exploration sites are located overseas, does that mean that their sales of gold (when they have sales) will not be affected by the appreciating Aussie dollar, that is capping the price rise of some Oz Gold companies?


----------



## prawn_86

awg said:


> A question about Perseus.
> 
> As Perseus exploration sites are located overseas, does that mean that their sales of gold (when they have sales) will not be affected by the appreciating Aussie dollar, that is capping the price rise of some Oz Gold companies?




If/when they do start mining, their income will be in USD (from gold sales). They will then need to convert some into the African currency to pay their costs there (or possibly use USD), and then some in AUD to pay for any costs here. The remaining amy be held in USD or AUD, or hedged, but as they are an Aus company they need to report in AUD, menaing that the currency values will be marked to market for their reports.

Looks like a 3 way hedge will probably be needed (if not already in place), just to minimise currency exposure.


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Traders might be looking to lock in some profits again about here, so be prepared for a halt, or even another stupid ASX 'please explain'. Yes, the stock is going up, because it's fvckin good you idiots!!




Great finish on the close today which has to be a further good sign, I've been following and commenting on PRU for almost 2 years now and it finally seems that it is beiginning to fulfill its potential (plus I don't think I've seen the stock this bullish before). Yeh I am totally expecting a speeding ticket to be issued any day now too. Wish they'd tell us some more about that boomer of a hole over at Tengrela though!


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> Great finish on the close today which has to be a further good sign, I've been following and commenting on PRU for almost 2 years now and it finally seems that it is beiginning to fulfill its potential (plus I don't think I've seen the stock this bullish before). Yeh I am totally expecting a speeding ticket to be issued any day now too. Wish they'd tell us some more about that boomer of a hole over at Tengrela though!



Yeah you picked this one pretty well jman, wish I had have taken notice of the thread earlier. Been a fantastic recovery since Dec, doesn't get toom uch more V shaped than this. Breaking through all time highs so easily is very surprising, I thought 1.50-1.60 would have been a sticking point for a little while with consoliation above 1.30 likely. I suppose POG going balistic has been a little handy! If anyone wanted to take them over, they may be close to missing the boat. Why someone didn't pounce when it was under $1.00 is a terrible missed opportunity. Some boards must be kicking themselves. I wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of LGL with their tremendous M&A success to wait till this hits $5.00 and then make an offer. Idiots!


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> *If anyone wanted to take them over, they may be close to missing the boat. Why someone didn't pounce when it was under $1.00 is a terrible missed opportunity.* Some boards must be kicking themselves. I wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of LGL with their tremendous M&A success to wait till this hits $5.00 and then make an offer. Idiots!




Too right!  Man, we could have all chipped in at 30c and got it for what, an easy $60m  Seriously though, there must be some shortsighted big companies out there - if I ran a biggie and could have snapped up 7m+ oz for under $100m, I mean what is the story??

Anyway, I'm more than happy to sell mine to LGL for $5 a share


----------



## Sean K

Any other holders a little peeved at the free options been handed out to directors recently?

First Sean Harvey joins the team and is handed 600,000 (to be approved) excisable at $1.30 on or before 31 March 2012. YES! $1.30 in two and a half years. Lots of incentive there.

Now, a new director is appointed, Michael Bohmand, handed 400,000 free options excisable at $1.80 expiring 31 March 2012. While the current share price is about $1.60. 

*WTF is going on here!!!!*


----------



## GumbyLearner

kennas said:


> Any other holders a little peeved at the free options been handed out to directors recently?
> 
> First Sean Harvey joins the team and is handed 600,000 (to be approved) excisable at $1.30 on or before 31 March 2012. YES! $1.30 in two and a half years. Lots of incentive there.
> 
> Now, a new director is appointed, Michael Bohmand, handed 400,000 free options excisable at $1.80 expiring 31 March 2012. While the current share price is about $1.60.
> 
> *WTF is going on here!!!!*




What else do you expect?
To reward you? This is the game. The directors make way more cash than investors. Simple!


----------



## flyboy77

jonojpsg said:


> Too right!  Man, we could have all chipped in at 30c and got it for what, an easy $60m  Seriously though, there must be some shortsighted big companies out there - if I ran a biggie and could have snapped up 7m+ oz for under $100m, I mean what is the story??
> 
> Anyway, I'm more than happy to sell mine to LGL for $5 a share




Simple fact is a bid at 1.00 or even $2.00 would be given short shrift by the PRU board and its major shareholders, even if the prevailing market price was 30c. Lihir know that as well as anyone. Let's not also forget that Lihir are a relative midget in the scheme of things and that Mr Hood has punctured his own sails rather effectively. To suggest otherwise is simply failing to understand the dynamics of m & a, especially as it relates to a tightly held stock.

Market price can often not equate to fair market value. 

However, to digress, Mark Calderwood presented at a conference last Tuesday in Perth. The brr report is on the PRU web site but these were my quick comments from the audio:

At Corporate Level:
1. *TSX listing "later this year".*
2. Aiming to become a 400k oz p.a. @ ~ USD500/oz cash cost
3. Wants to be another Redback which boasts a 3.5 BILLION market cap. (yet similar resourece base to PRU, PRU are 2-3 years behind them).
4. Secret is low capital costs - combined capex + opex only USD 600/oz!! (which is why I say a 300/oz takeout price is very reasonable)
5. 8 rigs going full tilt at Ayanfuri and Cote d'Ivoire - alluded to recent results (released presumably) at Sissingue of 60m @ 20 g/t etc.
6. Banks aggressively pursuing financing options with PRU.
7. EBITDA in yr 1 @ 950 gold is USD 120m!

Ayanfuri:

1. 650 sq. km holding, only 8 of 18 old pits drilled to date.
2. Best deposit found to date was beneath an old waste dump - doing new geochem across the entire tenement - the old stuff is rubbish.
3. Targetting Q3 2011 prodiction, construvtion to start Q1 2010.
4. Lump sum tenders all in - 3 of 4 under budget (in DFS).
5. Key to deposit (despite lowish grade) is large tonnage, low strip, wide zones and free milling nature of the ore. Predictable ore bodies.
6. 2.1m oz reserve off only 3 of the pits to expedite the approval process. Mining licence to be renewed for 15 years, EPA approval likely next Jan 2010.
7. Reserve expected to double in 2010.
8. Exploration upside is a minimum 500,000 oz per annum - easily replacing production.
9. Year 1 production est'd 230,000 oz @ high 300s opex.
10. Payback @ USD950 gold is 1.25 yrs; @ 1050 ~ 1 year. Tengrela shorter payback period again thanks to tax holiday.
11. *100% conversion of inferred to measured and from resources to reserves thus far. Exceptional!*

Tengrela et al.:

1. 2700 sq. km. holding in the country.
2. Sissingue part of 4.5km of mineralized strike but potentially 11-15km of strike.
3. 1000m of that strike has given 1m oz+ thus far.
(1.5m - 2m oz this year is my opinion)
4. Feasibilty due mid 2010. 

My conclusion:

If capex and opex COMBINED is only 600/oz, even a takeout price of 300/oz looks cheap given 1050/oz gold?

I don't really care whether historical deals have happened at 105/oz or whatever - times have changed - forever!

Lihir-Equigold and CDE-Bolnisi have set a strong precedent.

*Ayanfuri and Tengrela are both world class assets.* Accordingly, imo, PRU will receive a premium when the inevitable 'friendly' bid arrives....

Take $5 at your own peril. PRU is worth a lot more than that imo (assuming the gold price remains anywhere near current levels).

Go PRU. Bring on the TSX listing.


----------



## Sean K

flyboy77 said:


> Take $5 at your own peril. PRU is worth a lot more than that imo (assuming the gold price remains anywhere near current levels).



flyboy, I doubt anyone will pay more than their current EV to oz au rating. LGL and NCM are sitting at about $130 an ounce, which is about double PRUs current valuation at $57 an ounce. No where near $5 a share - that would be about $210 an ounce. $3 is probably more reasonable at the moment which would sit them at about the $130 an ounce mark. Disregard the EQI and BSG takeovers - at the top of the market and overpriced. Rediculous. I'm surprised you didn't use BGF as an example. What a good buy that was. Having said that, I'll take $5, but if I said that it's worth that now, I'd be ramping.


----------



## flyboy77

kennas said:


> flyboy, I doubt anyone will pay more than their current EV to oz au rating. LGL and NCM are sitting at about $130 an ounce, which is about double PRUs current valuation at $57 an ounce. No where near $5 a share - that would be about $210 an ounce. $3 is probably more reasonable at the moment which would sit them at about the $130 an ounce mark. *Disregard the EQI and BSG takeovers - at the top of the market and overpriced.* Rediculous. I'm surprised you didn't use BGF as an example. What a good buy that was. Having said that, I'll take $5, but if I said that it's worth that now, I'd be ramping.




Not so kennas, at the top of what market??? Overpriced? I doubt CDE would say that!

EQI deal was done when gold was what 900/oz? BSG less again. It's now 1050, so how can you say what you've just said? Absolutley no logic in your position.

The projects and the numbers speak for themselves, believe what you want to believe.....


----------



## Sean K

flyboy77 said:


> Not so kennas, at the top of what market??? Overpriced? I doubt CDE would say that!
> 
> EQI deal was done when gold was what 900/oz? BSG less again. It's now 1050, so how can you say what you've just said? Absolutley no logic in your position.
> 
> The projects and the numbers speak for themselves, believe what you want to believe.....



Those takeovers were done when the market was at or above 6000 points. And BSG was more a silver miner anyway. I still think the EQI buy was rediculous by LGL, their M&A work thus far is has been abysmal, so maybe it wouldn't surprise me if they go and pay $500 an ounce for PRU. Tell me something with your numbers, how do you get over $300 an ounce as a takeover price for PRU? Straight out of your @rse I think. Maybe you could toss up the last 4 takeovers that I know of as some sort of example. Maybe DIO (about $60 an ounce) ASG - Solomans ($25), SGX ($220) and MGL - Moto ($22 ish) No, they are not exactly the same companies. It could be argued SGX is superior, so PRU probably shouldn't go for more than that. Of note, not one of my 25 or so gold stocks is trading close to $300 an ounce, with MML the highest at $288 and the average at about $90. I think you're too emotionally involved flyboy.


----------



## flyboy77

kennas said:


> Those takeovers were done when the market was at or above 6000 points. And BSG was more a silver miner anyway. I still think the EQI buy was rediculous by LGL, their M&A work thus far is has been abysmal, so maybe it wouldn't surprise me if they go and pay $500 an ounce for PRU. Tell me something with your numbers, how do you get over $300 an ounce as a takeover price for PRU? Straight out of your @rse I think. Maybe you could toss up the last 4 takeovers that I know of as some sort of example. Maybe DIO (about $60 an ounce) ASG - Solomans ($25), SGX ($220) and MGL - Moto ($22 ish) No, they are not exactly the same companies. It could be argued SGX is superior, so PRU probably shouldn't go for more than that. Of note, not one of my 25 or so gold stocks is trading close to $300 an ounce, with MML the highest at $288 and the average at about $90. I think you're too emotionally involved flyboy.




kennas

I understand you are one of the 'big boys' on this forum but don't stoop to cheap tacky personal shots - clearly you are smarter than that (well you'd hope so). If you disagree with me so be it, i have no problem with that. I will say that I have worked in the game (m & a in the resources sector) so I have half an idea....or close thereto!

I'll say a couple of things in response given that takeovers are based on macro and micro factors:

1. Market valuations often have little relevance when it comes to pricing a takeover - all these EV/oz you talk about certainly go to suggest there are many 'undervalued' stories out there, nothing more nothing less.

2. Gold is at all time highs and only the uninformed would be so brave  to suggest it has peaked. Barrick's decision to remove its hedge book speaks volumes?

3. The Eldorado Sino deal - i'll take your word on 220/oz. Good deal for Eldorado me thinks at face value (and without knowing the ins and outs of SGX). Yet in the weeks leading up to 26 August 2009 when the deal was announced, gold had traded as low as the low 930s.

Gold is now 120/oz HIGHER (oops, *now what is 120 + 220*?) and moving higher imo.

SGX 'better' than PRU - time will tell. DIO, Moto and that Solomons Island gig - well do you really want me to go there?

4. Ayanfuri and Tengrela - I haven't seen the NPVs, IRRs and paybacks on the SGX mines but I'd be (happily) surprised if they hold a candle to Ayanfuri - and Tengrela will be better again as it proves up more gold in ground.

5. Why 300/oz?

We know PRU's total costs (opex + capex) are likely in the order of 600/oz. So at 1050 spot gold, there's 450/oz 'extra' to divvy up?

So at 50/50 split there's you SGX price - 220/oz but what about the upside at Ayanfuri and Tengrela - MC has mentioned 500k oz pa (Ayanfuri) and 300k oz pa (at Cote d'Ivoire) exploration potential over 10 years - that's a further 8m oz.

PRU don't NEED to do a deal they will have no problems financing Ayanfuri and can most likely fund Sissingue out of that cashflow.....

So, *a buyer will have to pay up *(and not to mention buyers always pay more for high quality assets of size in good jurisdictions). Maybe 60/40 or 65/35?

Let's not forget about the power of a competitive bidding process (or the mere threat of one) - there are numerous companies that would like to acquire PRU (and Lihir it won't be - unless they pay way over the odds)

If you were a big boy in the gold sector and were of the view that gold was likely to be at 1200, 1500 or higher for an extended period, what would you pay?

You do the maths.

For the record, the All Ords at over 6000? So what? No relevance to takeovers in the gold sector; BSG more a silver company - no relevance to this discussion whatsoever.

My last post. Your tantrums are pathetic. :disgust:


----------



## Sean K

flyboy77 said:


> My last post. Your tantrums are pathetic. :disgust:



Huh? Tantrum? Oh my dear, once again you display your lack of objectivity. 

Once again, your emotion shines through and displays your clouded judgement and reveals your true motives to the spectators. I'm sure you made great coffee for your supervisor of the sanitation section when working in M&A when you probably recieved a few free shares from the company according to how many stools you sampled. 

This really is amusing. I am a holder and want PRU to go to the moon, but to post criticising someone for being overly bullish must put things into perspective, I hope. 

flyboy, glad I don't have to read your BS again. It will mean that others reading this thread will see fact, instead of your posts...


----------



## awg

flyboy77 said:


> My last post.




I thought your posts were of high quality, and food for thought Flyboy, and hope you continue to post.

I wouldn't let forum disagreement put you off, thats par for the course on forums.


----------



## Sean K

awg said:


> I thought your posts were of high quality, and food for thought Flyboy, and hope you continue to post.
> 
> I wouldn't let forum disagreement put you off, thats par for the course on forums.



Yes, I agree. I would like to see flyboy post with less emotion. I have no control over it. I am a retired Mod simply stating my thoughts. Keep posting your ramps flyboy, and you can attack me to your hearts content as well!


----------



## awg

kennas said:


> Yes, I agree. I would like to see flyboy post with less emotion. I have no control over it. I am a retired Mod simply stating my thoughts. Keep posting your ramps flyboy, and you can attack me to your hearts content as well!




enjoy yr posts as well kennas, very informative, especially on the smaller goldies.

rebuttal of posts is useful to less informed posters.

I also dont mind some tantrum chucking, and a bit of verbal jousting, gives me some amusemement, and replaces the office politics of my former existence.

havent held this stock very long, picked it up in the mid 80c range.


----------



## oldblue

I was enjoying the discussion on this thread - until the abusive personal attacks started.

Must say I'm surprised that Moderators have allowed this to continue - and particularly that a "retired Mod" is involved.



Can we get back to discussing the stock, PRU?


----------



## prawn_86

oldblue said:


> Can we get back to discussing the stock, PRU?




Agreed. Lets all just focus on facts and figures (which is in most posts), and leave the snide comments out of it.

Thanks

Prawn


----------



## enigmatic

I would like to note that from an Australian prospective Gold prices reached there peaks when we were a round 70cents US, gold has dropped a fair amount recently for any Australian companies, and no mater how you look at as an investor we get paid in australian. dollars.

Obviously any mine outside of australian in PRU case has some advantage as operation cost stay relatively cheap in comparison to the gold price, however if you do a $AUS/gold price you will find we have leveled out for the last few months well below our peak.

PRU is still a great buy, however i do believe there are alot better stories out there for the time being, this has run far to hard and overshoot its worth. 

This is my personal opinion DYOR.


----------



## TabJockey

Any interpretation on the late ann. today? Seems like pretty good news because the SP bounced as soon as it came out. Just unsure on how this effects future forecasts?


----------



## jman2007

TabJockey said:


> Any interpretation on the late ann. today? Seems like pretty good news because the SP bounced as soon as it came out. Just unsure on how this effects future forecasts?




Well it seemed to cause a bit of a blip in the sp, 

It looks like what they're doing is searching for a zone which may have underground potential underneath one of their current pit designs. The current pit designs give an indication of how far they can mine down profitably, given the amount of waste material they'll have to remove i.e. the stuff with no gold in it.

Their current pit shells seem to be robust and economic to relatively low grades by Australian standards I suppose, but for a viable underground operation, 6-6.5 g/t Au would be the bare minimum given that development costs are about $20,000 per vertical meter. Most open cuts that are fortunate enough to progress underground will generally have a portal constructed in the base of the pit, followed by decline development to reach the high-grade ore at depth.

Hope that makes sense


----------



## Miner

I tried to trade on PRU today at about 1.30 PM . Commsec site advised it was a preopen condition and on market was refused. I thought market was closed. However could trade another scrip at the same time.

One more thing when market was supposedly to be open and PRU showed as Pre Open the buying price for PRU was much more than the selling offer . 

Honestly confused or probably something I need to learn.

Any one could share these two mysteries please.

Regards


----------



## TabJockey

jman2007 said:


> Their current pit shells seem to be robust and economic to relatively low grades by Australian standards I suppose, but for a viable underground operation, 6-6.5 g/t Au would be the bare minimum given that development costs are about $20,000 per vertical meter. Most open cuts that are fortunate enough to progress underground will generally have a portal constructed in the base of the pit, followed by decline development to reach the high-grade ore at depth.
> 
> Hope that makes sense




And they have found 3.1 to 6.8 g/t ? 37m of 6.8 and the rest less.

Doesnt sound like that much of a find really does it?


----------



## Sean K

Yeah, looks like it's just the one hole that is pretty good (FBDD041), with most returning in the 1-2 g/t region. 127m@3.1 g/t is quite a wide intercept with the true width approx 110m.

Interesting points jman. 6 g/t! That would have to be over a pretty wide zone and decent strike length too to make it worthwhile wouldn't it. It sounds like this particular shoot is closed off laterally but may continue to run at depths. So, they need a few more shoots like this to mine it?

Seems to be a lot of decent intersections inderneath the current pit design at Fobinso...

*DEEPER DRILL HOLE INTERCEPTS HIGH GRADE MINERALISATION AT AYANFURI GOLD PROJECT*

Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) is pleased to provide an update on the progress of exploration drilling at the Company’s flagship Ayanfuri Gold Project in Ghana.

As part of a long term drilling program at Ayanfuri a number of deeper drill holes have been completed to test below the limits of previous resource estimates.

Results to date have confirmed the continuation of gold mineralisation of generally similar tenor, except for the Fobinso deposit, where high grade gold mineralisation was encountered over a substantial width. Core hole FBDD041, the first deeper hole at Fobinso, returned 127m at 3.1g/t Au from 125m, including 37m at 6.8g/t Au from 126m. The true widths of the intercepts are about 110m and 32m respectively. The intercept grades were reasonably consistent, with low ‘nugget effect’. 11 individual values were between 10g/t and 22g/t Au and 13 values were between 5g/t and 10g/t Au (see Table 2 below). FBDD041 is the second best hole drilled to date on the 2km long, 2.1Moz, Abnabna-Fobinso zone. 

Holes 40m on either side of core hole FBDD041 also encountered significant but weaker gold mineralisation. The high grade shoot is associated with strong quartz veining in a flexure zone within the granite host rock. Although apparently limited in strike length by drilling to date, this new high grade shoot is open at depth.

The current pit design at Fobinso is to about 100m vertical depth however, mineralisation intercepted in FBDD041 extends from 10m to 120m below the pit design.


----------



## jonojpsg

Any reason why they couldn't just extend the depth of their pit?  Those grades would have to make it worth going deeper - if it's possible?


----------



## Sean K

jonojpsg said:


> Any reason why they couldn't just extend the depth of their pit?  Those grades would have to make it worth going deeper - if it's possible?



All a matter of economics I think jono. The problem would be widening the pit. If it costs x million to widen it, then x million to dig it out, the sale of the yellow stuff might not cover the costs. If the pit wall is on a 30% angle, imagine how much extra dirt would need to be removed to get down another 150-200m. jman will have a smarter answer than that I think.


----------



## shag

u have to batter the sides, keep yr pit shell at reasonable slopes, so like u say just a simple b/c thing.
but some mines start an underground operation from below to claw out good ore lodes, from the pit, as i understand. waihi in nz is doing both.
the more depth, the waste goes up exponentially in general.


----------



## exgeo

Emailed to clients of BGF Equities this morning.......................................................







> The enthusiasm for PRU is gaining traction. Below is a paragraph taken from Rodman and Renshaw research out of New York.
> 
> “Raising our target price to AUD 4.00 from AUD 2.75
> 
> Our target price is based on the Perseus shares trading at 2x our estimated NAV of AUD 1.90/share. Perseus Mining owns one of the largest undeveloped gold deposits in West Africa having a total resource base of 7 MM ozs of gold. We expect the resource size to be increased to 10 MM ozs with more drilling at which point every major gold producer in Ghana will take a closer look at the company. We believe that at the current gold price, Perseus is a take-out target and the acquirer will have to pay a significant premium to the current share price”


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> All a matter of economics I think jono. The problem would be widening the pit. If it costs x million to widen it, then x million to dig it out, the sale of the yellow stuff might not cover the costs. If the pit wall is on a 30% angle, imagine how much extra dirt would need to be removed to get down another 150-200m. jman will have a smarter answer than that I think.




Yes you are correct kennas

To maintain an economic pit shell, the amount of waste removed compared to ore mined (the strip ratio) has to be maintained at a level at which the pit still makes money. Once mining commences and a pit design is chosen, it is generally too late to alter its shape, unless the gold price goes to astronomical levels I suppose . 

Even extending a pit below its current optimised shell by a few tens of meters would have an enormous impact on its profitability, as this potentially adds millions of tonnes of extra waste to be removed from the walls by making it wider, as shag and yourself mentioned.


----------



## Miner

kennas said:


> All a matter of economics I think jono. The problem would be widening the pit. If it costs x million to widen it, then x million to dig it out, the sale of the yellow stuff might not cover the costs. If the pit wall is on a 30% angle, imagine how much extra dirt would need to be removed to get down another 150-200m. jman will have a smarter answer than that I think.




You were abs right Kennas.

Just to add : mine planning and depillaring is an extensive engineering task. the current pit design and availability of suitable cut is also important. Then comes the access for trucks. Finally $$$ to make it viable. Sometimes it is worthwhile not to extend the mine pit until a sustainable cash return makes it viable on a very long term basis.

Now a days if the mine planning did not include EMRP then without another EIS and EMRP (environmental stuff) one can not expand the mine hole. God forbids if you get a spider while digging then greenies will come and you get stuffed - no approval. If it is in CHina they will even kill a human being found on the way. We will however gladly buy from them but in Australia killing a spider - you are joking. Sorry digraced out of frustration as now a days we face from so called uneconomic EMRP and EIS stuff.


----------



## Skip1jz

Gone into trading halt at market open this morning. Interesting... any ideas? The trading halt request leaves no clues.


----------



## shag

Miner said:


> You were abs right Kennas.
> 
> Just to add : mine planning and depillaring is an extensive engineering task. the current pit design and availability of suitable cut is also important. Then comes the access for trucks. Finally $$$ to make it viable. Sometimes it is worthwhile not to extend the mine pit until a sustainable cash return makes it viable on a very long term basis.
> 
> Now a days if the mine planning did not include EMRP then without another EIS and EMRP (environmental stuff) one can not expand the mine hole. God forbids if you get a spider while digging then greenies will come and you get stuffed - no approval. If it is in CHina they will even kill a human being found on the way. We will however gladly buy from them but in Australia killing a spider - you are joking. Sorry digraced out of frustration as now a days we face from so called uneconomic EMRP and EIS stuff.




go to nz if u want to get pissed off. if u followed all the regs u couldnt walk on the grass, let alone dig a hole.
to make it more ironic and worse, they allowed billions of dollars worth of dodgy housing stock to b built, for yrs, the leaky housing debacle.


----------



## Ajax

page two of the trading halt announcement refers to a capital raising................................................


----------



## Sean K

Yes, was always going to be more capital to be raised.

Flyboy was spot on :

April:



flyboy77 said:


> The issue of dilution is far from "obvious"...... me thinks they'll get gobbled up before then.
> 
> In any event, from experience, the greater part of the Ayanfuri will be project financed i.e. debt funded and MC has already stated that Tengrela can be funded (the equity component) out of cashflow from Ayanfuri.




Since then, they raised $75m @ .82c a share in May and now they're raising more money. So much for no dilution. 

Crystal ball needs a tune up I think. lol


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Yes, was always going to be more capital to be raised.
> 
> Flyboy was spot on :
> 
> April:
> 
> 
> 
> Since then, they raised $75m @ .82c a share in May and now they're raising more money. So much for no dilution.
> 
> Crystal ball needs a tune up I think. lol




Hmm, yes an interesting development.  Let's assume they issue 50m @ $1.40ish a share gives them another $70m.  Basically that builds it for them doesn't it?  WHat was cap cost for Ayanfuri - US$147.9m incl contingency.  

So that would just about get them there and would mean that ALL revenue from Ayanfuri comes back to us shareholders.  Sounds like a pretty good deal to me rather than paying fees and interest on a loan that was only going to be paid back in a year or two anyway?

On their FS figures - 230koz in year 1 @ US $392/oz 

Margin @ $1000/oz = $600 x 230k = US$138m net year 1.

On the basis of current capital plus above assumed 50m = 350m shares gives
about 40c a share.  On a conservative PE for junior producer with lots of upside, say 10, would imply $4 per share - same as BGF target.

Only problem with these cap raisings when the SP is moving the way it is is that the issue price is most likely going to be well below where we are currently at which may hold the SP back a bit short term.


----------



## Skip1jz

Ajax said:


> page two of the trading halt announcement refers to a capital raising................................................




Ah yes too early in the morning for me (Perth time), a lame excuse. I will engage brain before reading and posting next time.


----------



## jman2007

Interesting development to be sure

Not a move that I expected them to make in the short term. My original feeling was that the construction at Ayanfuri would be funded by a combination of debt and equity, this may still well be the case of course since we don't have any real indication just how much they're wanting to raise. I would have thought debt to be a better result for shareholders, since the payback period is relatively short for Ayanfuri.

The sp may well soften in the short term, but as always you have to crack some eggs to make an omlette, and this situation is no different.


----------



## Miner

jman2007 said:


> Interesting development to be sure
> 
> Not a move that I expected them to make in the short term. My original feeling was that the construction at Ayanfuri would be funded by a combination of debt and equity, this may still well be the case of course since we don't have any real indication just how much they're wanting to raise. I would have thought debt to be a better result for shareholders, since the payback period is relatively short for Ayanfuri.
> 
> The sp may well soften in the short term, but as always you have to crack some eggs to make an omlette, and this situation is no different.




Hi Jman
You need some oil/butter (unless using a non sticking pan), pinch of salt as well for making an omlette

I hope PRU is not giving a surprise while raising capital in a way Scotgold Resources just did. That will be a pathetic strategy


----------



## Sean K

Yes, I hope they use a little grease. Like some cheap shares and options for current holders, but I think they'll be leaning towards Canadian 'sophisticates' to gain more interest in the mythical TSX listing. It's obviously a very difficult task to list on the TSX. Geesh.

I too thought there'd be minimal further capital raised for development and thought half equity and capital. But not another raising. That's what the last one was for right? To pave the way for financing for development. Out of left field, maybe they're going to put some funds together to take over another explorer? Focus really should be getting Ayanfuri into production to start making money while POGs going ok. 

Lets hope this raising is not too dilutionary. Since the stock has run quite hard recently, I doubt it will be close to the current price. Fingers crossed.


----------



## jman2007

Recent talk by Mark Calderwood for those interested, I thought it was a very good one:

http://www.brr.com.au/event/61594/emerging-gold-producer

I found these comments from Mark very interesting:

2005-2010: _15 new gold mines_ coming online in West Africa averaging 200Koz pa in production.

PRU drilling meters 2007-2010:
2007: 100km
2008: 170km
2009: Between 100 and 170km
2010: *>200km* planned

4Moz in Reserves at Ayanfuri by the end of 2010 more than likely. Banks are also aggressively pursuing the Ayanfuri project. Payback period for Ayanfuri at $US 950/oz _one year 3 months_.

Sissingue could be 11-15km long? At this stage, Resource calculated for only 1km of strike. But needs a lot of drilling.

Enjoy.


----------



## Stagman

kennas said:


> Huh? Tantrum? Oh my dear, once again you display your lack of objectivity.
> 
> Once again, your emotion shines through and displays your clouded judgement and reveals your true motives to the spectators. I'm sure you made great coffee for your supervisor of the sanitation section when working in M&A when you probably recieved a few free shares from the company according to how many stools you sampled.
> 
> This really is amusing. I am a holder and want PRU to go to the moon, but to post criticising someone for being overly bullish must put things into perspective, I hope.
> 
> flyboy, glad I don't have to read your BS again. It will mean that others reading this thread will see fact, instead of your posts...




How do you get away with such a filthy, disgusting and offensive attack on another poster without being moderated?

I can't believe that you have the audacity to suggest that other posters keep their emotions in check because it's obvious that you certainly can't.


Stagman


----------



## oldblue

Have to agree, Stagman.

It seems that retired moderators are allowed a bit more lattitude than most other mere mortals.


----------



## jman2007

C'mon guys

We're all friends here, let's just play the ball and not the man. Verbal jousting happens on some threads from time to time. The trick is to not take it personally, we all want the same thing here - a successful PRU mining gold.

Peace


----------



## Miner

Stagman said:


> How do you get away with such a filthy, disgusting and offensive attack on another poster without being moderated?
> 
> I can't believe that you have the audacity to suggest that other posters keep their emotions in check because it's obvious that you certainly can't.
> 
> 
> Stagman




Mate Stagman

Can you please revert back to PRU and start making more money

If you want to make personal issues with Kennas or any one else just use PM and please please let us not wash our dirty linens in public.

We all have different preference,styles, mindset but we are all professionals and let us not make this site for personal issues.

Let us hope PRU news on Monday becomes healthirer for existing shareholders on Monday and not just sophisticated investors

Thanks


----------



## TabJockey

Whats everyone oppinion on the capital raising plans?

To my eye they look reasonable, but my finance is sort of basic.


----------



## Miner

As it was feared PRU came with the bad news to raise fund only from chosen mates of BGF Equity.
Beauty of this plan is it does raise the fund but tells the existing shareholders you are a useless bunch. Under the pretext of less than 15% equity volume, they will increase the equity every time and the gap only widens. For example if you have no of equity 10,0000, 000 then to raise less than 1.5 million shares PRU does not need share holders approval. So next time the volume will be increased to 11.49 millions. They do not have to take shareholders permission for raising 1.645 millions. It goes on 

The direct beneficialires are BGF and their top notch people to get decent commission out of it plus get more fund from those sophisiticated investors for their next equity raising with another company. It is all legalised money making scheme. 

I can just whinge unless join the queue to become a sophisticated investor as well as a mate of BGF Equity.

Probably ASIC is a lame duck like Crime and Corruption Commission.


----------



## jancha

Hey Kennas
               Whats your oppinion about more capital raising and do you personally think it's a good price to come in on at @ 1.60?


----------



## jman2007

TabJockey said:


> Whats everyone oppinion on the capital raising plans?
> 
> To my eye they look reasonable, but my finance is sort of basic.




Well my finance is none too sophisticated either, but $1.50 actually seems like a pretty good outcome - yes, the price this morning has softened a little, but we're still light years ahead of where we were then the price was 50-60c ps. Once we flush the 'undecideds' out of the registry this week, and business as usual resumes, should be a pretty tightly held stock one thinks - unless POG goes off a cliff.

Not 100% sure what their cash balance will be after this, $A100M or so?.. but you would have to think the chances of another dilutionary raising would be slim, hopefully the banks will come to the party. It gives PRU a hell of a war chest for listing on the TSX.

I think kennas reminded us by comparing the MC's of Centamin, Redback, etc to that of PRU's, still definitely multi-bagger potential, PRU might even have a similar Resource base to Redback but a couple of years behind in development. Hard to argue against this kind of logic.


----------



## shag

I thought 1.50 was okish-could have been worse. sad we didn't get a look in, but i guess spp's are expensive and less reliable.

on the 'other matter', i  concurr with miner and co, and appreciate the great information gleened from this and other threads(like the brr presentation above, and peoples' depliction of such), but i have noted on some threads a few ramps have started to immerge, especially as the monies have flowed back into the market again, in volume, over the last few months.

thats just my opinion tho, and hope 'enthusiastic investors' wear and *endure *some constructive criticism.


----------



## Calliope

I took the opportunity today to increase my stake. I think the decision to list on the Toronto exchange is a positive step. Canadian analysts are much more savvy about gold  mining shares than our analysts.


----------



## Sean K

Yep miner, would be nice to get a look into these things, but it's hard when you're a retailer. And yes, good for BGF. Which broker was recently sprewking this as the best goldie in the market whose mc will go to $1b? LMAO! 

I agree with jman, pretty good outcome. The stock was only trading at $1.50 a few days ago before gapping up. Looks like the old time highs around $1.60 will be tested as support, but you'd have to guess that $1.50 could be the floor at the top of the gap, and the cap raise price. That is of course, if POG doesn't correct significantly nor the market, which is on the cards. Around 5000 on the XAO is a significant resistance zone and I think traders will be selling into this region. But with the overall strength of the market and printed money possibly looking for a home, who knows. 

Looks like TSX listing will be sometime 90 days after 5 Nov. 

And yep, $100m in the bank once the second tranch goes through to the Canuks. Pretty handy if the market goes pear again. 

Long term, still looking good, as long as the general market and POG holds up...


----------



## shag

BGF had another ramp today, 
http://www.smh.com.au/business/west-africa-beckons-as-aussies-go-for-gold-20091025-henv.html
didn't anyone find it a bit vauge, like i presume mac bank grabbed a few, and handed a few around. someone i know is a 'sophisticated....punter' and gets in on these handouts directly. doesnt take much apparently, and i hope they don't have weak hands.


----------



## jman2007

Bloomberg interview with Mark Calderwood,

Discusses the upcoming TSX listing and M. Calderwood's view on where the gold price is heading, pretty interesting really, although the interviewer seemed a bit dim. At least Mark admitted that any predator would have to a significant premium to get their hands on the company, and that we wouldn't roll over without a huge fight...lol. Well he got that bit right.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=ceo&T=Calderwood%20Says%20Perseus%20Plans%20Toronto%20Listing%20by%202010&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1OxHKxCI52Q.asf


----------



## Sean K

shag said:


> and i hope they don't have weak hands.



Let's hope so. Would be amuzing if BGF start selling shares into any strength after their rampathons recently.



jman2007 said:


> Bloomberg interview with Mark Calderwood,
> 
> Discusses the upcoming TSX listing and M. Calderwood's view on where the gold price is heading, pretty interesting really, although the interviewer seemed a bit dim. At least Mark admitted that any predator would have to a significant premium to get their hands on the company, and that we wouldn't roll over without a huge fight...lol. Well he got that bit right.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=ceo&T=Calderwood%20Says%20Perseus%20Plans%20Toronto%20Listing%20by%202010&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1OxHKxCI52Q.asf



Sold at 10 day VWAP, a 'fair' level.
Hopefully TSX listing before Christmas but time is running away. Sounds like next year.
Retail raising in Canada very small, just to seed turnover on TSX.
Plan to double the reserves next year. That would be VERY significant.
Q3 2011 for production start up, but lots of contingency, July 2011 should be _easy_ for start up.
Pit designs on sub $800 gold price. Very strong as low as $650.
Gold price rise will be inflationary.
Profitability pay off in year one at current prices.
Lots of rumours floating about. Any predators would have to pay up fairly solid premiums due to long term shareholders. I'll roll over at the right price.

I've added in the total shares of this raising and the cash to the gold stock comparison spreadsheet and it pushes them up to the $65 an ounce mark, which is probably still a little low for this stage of development, but they're not as cheap as they were a few months ago down around $30-40 an ounce. That was a great opportunity in this environment. Hard to believe GRY deserve to be trading at a premium to them.


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> I've added in the total shares of this raising and the cash to the gold stock comparison spreadsheet and it pushes them up to the $65 an ounce mark, which is probably still a little low for this stage of development, but they're not as cheap as they were a few months ago down around $30-40 an ounce. That was a great opportunity in this environment. Hard to believe GRY deserve to be trading at a premium to them.




Hhmm yes, interesting comparsion between GRY and PRU... could be due to more 'smart money' flowing into this corner of the world than there was 12-18 months ago, and generating more 'exposure'?

Anyhow, about PRU's contract award:

Can someone please explain to me what a "Lump Sum turnkey basis" means??... I've never heard of that term before, it sounds totally bizarre. Is that the same as a fixed price contract?

Never heard of either of these two companies 'DRA' or 'Group Five' before. At least they have plenty of relevant experience in Ghana by the sounds of it, although lets hope they _have worked together_ before. JV's make me nervous. Take a look at Resolutes experience at Syama if you want an example of how wrong it can go in West Africa (not a JV issue as far as I'm aware though), an absolute cluster f$$k. It sends a shiver down my spine just thinking about it.

I hope they didn't award the contract based solely in price, someone like Leighton who constructed CGX's Masbate plant in the Phillipines, and surely have experience in Africa maybe got knocked out in one of the earlier tendering rounds?


----------



## Sean K

jman2007 said:


> Can someone please explain to me what a "Lump Sum turnkey basis" means??... I've never heard of that term before, it sounds totally bizarre. Is that the same as a fixed price contract?
> 
> Never heard of either of these two companies 'DRA' or 'Group Five' before. At least they have plenty of relevant experience in Ghana by the sounds of it, although lets hope they _have worked together_ before.



Maybe they pay in a lump sum, not in installments, and you use a key to turn the plant on, or something?  Bizaar.

I hadn't heard of those companies in the JV either, but they seem to have some track record. After a Google:

Group Five look like a pretty diverse engineering company with mining just a small part of the picture.

http://groupfive.investoreports.com/corporate/business-units/construction

DRA seemed to have completed a number of projects in Africa across a bunch of mineral groups. 

They've completed the following gold projects (which I haven't heard of):


Aflease Gold Mining – Modder East Project 
DRD - Blyvooruitzicht Gold Mine 
Backfill Plant for Driefontein Gold Mine 
Kalana
http://www.drainternational.com/dra/view/dra/en/global/page1

Yes, lets hope they do better than the bozoes at Syama.

Gee, markets looking dodgy at the moment. Start or a major correction way back down to make a W ish type pf recovery, or is this just a 5-10% dip and a buying opportunity. Gold needs to stay above $1030 I think for it to remain really bullish and for gold stocks to remain well supported.


----------



## shag

just an eng contract

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090402064548AAQUPbG

http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=141319&page=6

note.....Lump Sum Turn Key (LSTK) projects are suited in cases where:
- things are well known ahead of time....can be quantified...

Most owners use LSTK to limit their exposure to cost and schedule overruns...


People sometimes forget that a bidder may also have the right to* refuse* a Change Request....

you hope they, pru, know what they are doing...

you assume they have a mine that they have copied, or i do.

- *no *"Change Orders" are anticipated....

disclaimer....my project management knowledge is limited and old.


----------



## shag

jmans going to know this or more, but when projects hit variances, thats when it gets murky and yr choice of contract is paramount. a variance is some type of unforseen or forseen possible design or schedule change etc.

it seems this vauge? form of contract is more akin to say placing a contract on say building bolts, where there are few unknowns and most criterion can be prescribed easily. whereas say putting out that oilwell up north-timor sea oil spill, presently wouldnt be the best contract for this to be used upon.

maybe someone else can educate us better anyway, and why they may have used this type of project management product.

i'd be hoping the australian gov was telling them to use the, 'put the ...... out yesterday', type contract. three weeks and growing....

i'm sure kennas would be greatly enthused if they have used the sayma mine as their design copy...
low grades, close proximity, large....and they both arn't working...or maybe they used the 'Lump sum turkey' contract, up the road.


----------



## Sean K

Wow, some outstanding hits at Tengrela.

Should significantly upgrade the resource base when a new estimate come out. Currently sits at about a million ounces. No idea what it could turn into. Hopefully LOTS!  



> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) is pleased to announce further significant RC and diamond drill results from the Sissingue prospect at its Tengrela Gold Project in Ivory Coast.
> 
> Recent intercepts include:
> 
> SRC 720 - 66m at 5.0g/t Au from 6m including 2m at 97.3g/t Au from 16m;
> SLC 005 - 63m at 5.1g/t Au from 78m including 32m at 7.2g/t Au from 92m;
> SRC 704 - 8m at 5.1g/t Au from 10m and 38m at 6.6g/t Au from 32m including 2m at 110.4g/t Au from 34m;
> SRC 726 - 78m at 3.2g/t Au from 36m including 24m at 5.3g/t Au from 82m;
> SRC 725 - 26m at 3.9g/t Au from 64m including 4m at 12g/t Au from 86m;
> SD 079 - 8.3m at 2.2g/t Au from 11.2m, 16.5m at 4.6g/t Au from 61.5m and 27.8m at 2.0g/t Au from 97m; and
> SD 080 - 52m at 2.6g/t Au from 42m including 13.5m at 6.0g/t Au from 51m.
> 
> Significant high grade intercepts have now been made intermittently over a strike length of 960m. The Company is working to further increase drilling production rates on the Tengrela Gold Project and has commenced a Definitive Feasibility Study.



And moving into DFS already! Could have 2 mines up and running in 2011 producing somewhere between 200 and 300k pa. Must be worth more than $70 an ounce by then!


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Wow, some outstanding hits at Tengrela.
> 
> Should significantly upgrade the resource base when a new estimate come out. Currently sits at about a million ounces. No idea what it could turn into. Hopefully LOTS!
> 
> And moving into DFS already! Could have 2 mines up and running in 2011 producing somewhere between 200 and 300k pa. Must be worth more than $70 an ounce by then!




Indeed!  Given their cash costs are around $500/oz, if POG stays around $1000 they are going to be making 500x250000 a year free cash = $125m a year!!!!  Even if they have a bit of debt to pay down, if they have $100m a year to give back to us or keep growing, we'll be looking at a PE of around 5 which is about a quarter of what the bigger gold producers run at.  

Looking forward to a quadrupling of the SP by 2012


----------



## CapnBirdseye

jonojpsg said:


> Indeed!  Given their cash costs are around $500/oz, if POG stays around $1000 they are going to be making 500x250000 a year free cash = $125m a year!!!!  Even if they have a bit of debt to pay down, if they have $100m a year to give back to us or keep growing, we'll be looking at a PE of around 5 which is about a quarter of what the bigger gold producers run at.
> 
> Looking forward to a quadrupling of the SP by 2012




Assuming that there us no significant fall in the POG in AUD terms you are probably right, perhaps a little conservative.  Plenty of scope for reserve increases too.

The falling USD is the biggest risk to a good leg up in SP.


----------



## Sean K

Yep agree on the risks.

USD must correct back up shortly, but if they keep printing money and don't get out of debt, the longer term view is for USD to turn to wallpaper. The more likely scenario at this point I think.

Implimentation is also a risk. If the engineering JV don't get it right then the stock could suffer. They need it to come in on time and on budget and running to production schedule early on. We can only wait and see on that one. 

Upside is still from further POG appreciation, and a surprise in resource upgrades perhaps.

Great break up yesterday. What an awesome looking chart!


----------



## jman2007

kennas said:


> Wow, some outstanding hits at Tengrela.
> 
> Should significantly upgrade the resource base when a new estimate come out. Currently sits at about a million ounces. No idea what it could turn into. Hopefully LOTS!




Yes some really outstanding widths and grades from Tengrela.

I would say conservatively that they should be able to prove up 2Moz by the end of next year, this is fast becoming a 2nd-string project that most juniors/developers would love to have as a primary project! 

Grades definitely superior to that of Ayanfuri so they'll probably employ a different mining method to try and keep the head grade high. Should turn into a good little money maker in a few years.


----------



## jman2007

shag said:


> jmans going to know this or more, but when projects hit variances, thats when it gets murky and yr choice of contract is paramount. a variance is some type of unforseen or forseen possible design or schedule change etc.




I think your guess is probably as good as mine shag

Starting to get into the Project Management and Contract Law area here, definitely not my strong point! This is generally where guys in suits yell and swear at each other behind closed doors until a mutually acceptable stance is achieved, so they can eventually come out all smiles and slapping each other on the back :


----------



## CapnBirdseye

The conditions of contract are important.  

Where variations occur are generally when the contractor has to do something he didnt expect to (or wasn't propery defined in the contract, or contractors offer).

These variations are generally due to a change in scope from the client.  Say, PRU decided they wanted to alter the layout of the plant in some way, or that they wanted additional accommodation for their staff.  

Alternatively latent conditions can lead to a variation.  These are items that the contractor could not price the risk for.  Pricing the risk for all latent conditions would lead to uncompetitive pricing, so the client hs to bear the risk for such changes.

These could be unforseen ground conditions, leading to a change in foundation design.  This can be a risk is there was only a limited ground investigation.  Likewise groundwater.  The assumptions on these conditions would have been qualified in the contractors bid.

There are a few others - delay due to unforseen weather conditions (allowed by some contracts), delay due to regulatory intervention or delay in approvals.

The nice thing about a turnkey contract, is that the contractor is undertaking all of the design (or under his control).  So long as the parameters have been properly set by the client, then the risk for all is reduced and therefore the likelihood of a variation is decreased.

If PRU become a meddling pain in the a*** client, then expect to see prices soar.




jman2007 said:


> I think your guess is probably as good as mine shag
> 
> Starting to get into the Project Management and Contract Law area here, definitely not my strong point! This is generally where guys in suits yell and swear at each other behind closed doors until a mutually acceptable stance is achieved, so they can eventually come out all smiles and slapping each other on the back :


----------



## Sean K

Stalled and consolidated above the $1.50 ish long term support line. That should be pretty solid down the track if there's a decent correction, but if the world falls apart again, nothing will be saved.

Interesting that this has not responded to the charging POG. I put this down to the fact that it ran from $1.00 to $1.80 in 3 months, while POG just ambled up in comparison. So, it's just coming back to a reasonable level I think. 

Should expect more drilling updates shortly with 5 (I think) rigs working away in various locations. 

Looking forward to the resource upgrade at Sissingue and updated Reserves statement for Ayanfuri. Could be the catalyst for another run. 

At $71 an ounce EV trading cheaper than GRY, FML, and IGR which is a bit silly. I think they might be too expensive at the moment acually...


----------



## jonojpsg

PRU have got to be undervalued though - the DFS stated a paback for Ayanfuri of what, 18 months at $950/oz. At $1050 that leaves an extra $20 million on the table on top of that or takes off another few months.  IFF POG stays high, eg $1000+ then PRU will have to move up pretty strongly (eg at least 100%) over the next 12 months to keep up IMO.


----------



## globstarr

I read a recent Rodman & Renshaw (US brokers) report that has the company valued at AUD$4.00 per share. Extract below.

__________
October 16 2009

Raising our target price to AUD 4.00 from AUD 2.75

Our target price is based on the Perseus shares trading at 2x our estimated NAV of AUD 1.90/share. Perseus Mining owns one of the largest undeveloped gold deposits in West Africa having a total resource base of 7 MM ozs of gold.

We expect the resource size to be increased to 10 MM ozs with more drilling at which point every major gold producer in Ghana will take a closer look at the company. We believe that at the current gold price, Perseus is a take-out target and the acquirer will have to pay a significant premium to the current share price.


----------



## Sean K

globstarr said:


> I read a recent Rodman & Renshaw (US brokers) report that has the company valued at AUD$4.00 per share. Extract below.



Thanks globstarr, plenty of upside IF they get it right. I agree that if everything goes to plan then they should be valued much higher. But, there is a lot of water to slide under the bridge between drilling and selling. If they get it right, longer term holders will do extremely well. I have my fingers crossed in-pit resource grades improve a tad. And, double Reserves and Sissingue resources. Not much to ask!!


----------



## jancha

kennas said:


> Stalled and consolidated above the $1.50 ish long term support line. That should be pretty solid down the track if there's a decent correction, but if the world falls apart again, nothing will be saved.
> 
> Interesting that this has not responded to the charging POG. I put this down to the fact that it ran from $1.00 to $1.80 in 3 months, while POG just ambled up in comparison. So, it's just coming back to a reasonable level I think.
> 
> Should expect more drilling updates shortly with 5 (I think) rigs working away in various locations.
> 
> Looking forward to the resource upgrade at Sissingue and updated Reserves statement for Ayanfuri. Could be the catalyst for another run.
> 
> At $71 an ounce EV trading cheaper than GRY, FML, and IGR which is a bit silly. I think they might be too expensive at the moment acually...




Kennas howz that chart looking now? With the USD strengthening PRU is taking a bit of a belting. In your opinion would think that gold has reached it's peak or just taking a breather? I hope the latter as i'm holding.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like a decent correction, well overdue.

Short term I'm not sure where gold's going but longer term, if governments keep printing money and keep rates arificially low, gold will go higher. If there's a magical change in policy and everyone gets out of debt, then gold will be cactus. 

Personally, I sold all my shares, in everything, last week. I'm having a break from the computer and full time trading/investor for a few months, at least. 

All the best!


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Looks like a decent correction, well overdue.
> 
> Short term I'm not sure where gold's going but longer term, if governments keep printing money and keep rates arificially low, gold will go higher. If there's a magical change in policy and everyone gets out of debt, then gold will be cactus.
> 
> Personally, I sold all my shares, in everything, last week. I'm having a break from the computer and full time trading/investor for a few months, at least.
> 
> All the best!




Hey mate, sounds like a great idea, wish I could say I was doing the same

Hope you have a great break


----------



## jancha

jonojpsg said:


> PRU have got to be undervalued though - the DFS stated a paback for Ayanfuri of what, 18 months at $950/oz. At $1050 that leaves an extra $20 million on the table on top of that or takes off another few months.  IFF POG stays high, eg $1000+ then PRU will have to move up pretty strongly (eg at least 100%) over the next 12 months to keep up IMO.




The way things are looking I would say that PRU will be heading further south.
I doubt that gold in the short term will regain it's high with the USD strengthening & the possibility the US raising interest rates early next year. 
I cant see PRU moving up 100% in the next 12mths however I am still holding but my thinking is of getting out & investing eslewhere. 
Any thoughts?


----------



## Sean K

If I wasn't so bearish on the universe right now (and therefore cashed up) this looks like a great set up to me. 

Totally oversold due to the GEC capitulation, very strong buying support from the bottom with minor consolidation, smashed through 90c - $1.00 major resistance and then all through time highs, and now consolidating above that level on great volume.

Fundamentally sitting high for an explorer, but closing in on development with piles of cash in the bank.

But, what the fvck is POG going to do?

All things being equal, this should spike up from here. 

(therefore, put your shorts on! he he )


----------



## Donga

For what it's worth PRU written up Wed in Fin Review as THE gold stock to perform in 2010 amongst ALL others, so now mainstream. Investors just need to get their arms around Ghana and for that matter all the other exotic places Aussie miners find themselves these days, in some part due to being able to raise funds in the Lucky country.   

There are so many opportunites out there and wouldn't be cashed up during this recovery for quids. As long as Chindia doesn't implode


----------



## jonojpsg

Hey all, latest Tengrela results out with some more IMPRESSIVE hits!



> SLC 014- Open ended 105m at 6.5g/t Au from 36m down hole, including 48m at 11.3g/t Au
> from 76m down hole followed by 17m at 5.3g/t Au from 124m;
> SLC 025 - Open ended 30m at 5.5g/t Au from 50m down hole, including 2m at 22.7g/t Au
> from 56m and 4m at 14.2g/t Au from 76m to the bottom of the hole;
> SRC 018- 106m at 1.6g/t Au from 4m down hole, including 16m at 3.1g/t Au from 92m.




While these are within the main body, it is the open ended 105m @6.5g/t which is particularly exciting as this is MASSIVE.  

Definitely want to see some more drill results from outside this envelope though as this would really get the market interested (if it isn't already)

Riding this one for the long haul


----------



## Sean K

jonojpsg said:


> Hey all, latest Tengrela results out with some more IMPRESSIVE hits!
> 
> While these are within the main body, it is the open ended 105m @6.5g/t which is particularly exciting as this is MASSIVE.



Yes, not a bad intersection. I suggest this is not across the line but directly down one of these 'quartz stringer veins'. But, 6.5 g/t!!

It's going to be an outstanding deposit by the looks. 

Again, for a peer comparison, CNT looks the most likely, if PRU can continue with their exploration success and start producing as expected.

CNT current mc $2.3b. 
PRU $755m.


----------



## Ajax

Are further drilling results for Ayunfuri to be released soon?

From the September 2009 quartlery dated 30 October 2009 regarding Ayunfuri:-

"Exploration and resource drilling is continuing with three rigs currently on site."

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PRU&E=ASX&N=467488 

and from 19 October 2009 announcement

"Three rigs are currently on site at Ayanfuri to advance resource and reserve growth"

and from 27 November 2009 AGM presentation...

"3-4 Drill Rigs Ayanfuri
Resource and Reserve Drilling
Exploration Drilling" 

There should hopefully also be news soon on Environmental Protection Agency approval for Ayunfuri and TSX listing date.


----------



## Sean K

More outstanding intersections in the infill drilling. DFS now due in April.



> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) is pleased to announce further significant RC and diamond drill results from the Sissingue prospect at its Tengrela Gold Project in Ivory Coast.
> 
> Recent intercepts include:
> SLC 045- 26m at 19.5g/t Au from 24m down hole, including 2m at 232.9g/t Au from 42m down hole and another intercept of 18m at 4.9g/t Au from 62m;
> SLC 074- Open ended 94m at 4.0g/t Au from 46m down hole, including 28m at 9.1g/t Au from 68m down; and
> SLC 048 - Open ended 47m at 3.4g/t Au from 34m down hole, including 2m at 39g/t Au from 60m.
> 
> The intercepts summarised in Table 1 were predominantly from infill drilling. The results give additional support to high grade intercepts previously reported from within the Sissingue prospect’s core zone. High grades are typically associated with narrow quartz stringers containing abundant visible gold in altered felsic and granitic intrusives and metasediments.



26m @ 19.5 g/t really is outstanding. 

The Sissingue prospect has a strike length of at least 5km and is up to 800m wide. Going to be a huge deposit with further drilling.


----------



## Sean K

Starting to go through a meaningful correction, along with POG, which is healthy. Will probably track gold and the market lower unless there's some upside surprises like a takeover offer. First real technical support across $1.80 and then major support at $1.50. Probably a good opportunity back at those levels.


----------



## Miner

Miner said:


> Dear Flyboy 77
> 
> I am not going to explain you any thing as my crystal ball is missing at this point and probably got mixed up with the crystal ball used by Goldman Sachs and other pundits in the market.
> 
> It was a matter of my assumption and opinion - take it or reject it. Upto you.
> 
> *Just put a trigger on this page and revisit in Feb  2010 to correlate what I said *




I put a trigger in outlook to look into PRU and my thread posted about one yera back. I should have believed on myself about future of PRU


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Starting to go through a meaningful correction, along with POG, which is healthy. Will probably track gold and the market lower unless there's some upside surprises like a takeover offer. First real technical support across $1.80 and then major support at $1.50. Probably a good opportunity back at those levels.




Yep, nice to see a pull back.  I will definitely be watching closely and jumping back in if it heads towards $1.50 

Don't forget that all the DFS figures that looked so good were based on US$850-950/oz so even if gold corrects to those levels PRU still have an outstanding couple of projects heading to production in the next couple of years!


----------



## jancha

PERSEUS LISTS ON THE TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE
AND
SATISFIES ESCROW RELEASE CONDITIONS

That should add a bit more depth and interest in the company.


----------



## Pivotonian

jonojpsg said:


> Yep, nice to see a pull back.  I will definitely be watching closely and jumping back in if it heads towards $1.50
> 
> Don't forget that all the DFS figures that looked so good were based on US$850-950/oz so even if gold corrects to those levels PRU still have an outstanding couple of projects heading to production in the next couple of years!




Did you jump back in Monday when it dipped below $1.50?  You'd have to be happy right now if you did ...


----------



## jonojpsg

Pivotonian said:


> Did you jump back in Monday when it dipped below $1.50?  You'd have to be happy right now if you did ...




Mate I would have but in my STUPIDITY I had left most of my positions open during the run down over the last week or two and so had nothing to get into it with!!!!  I saw it bleow $1.50m and thought that it had to jump, which it obviously did opening at $1.63 the next day

Anyway, I jumped back in then as I had enough margin cleared to get on at least a small parcel anyway, which has given me something to cheer about

TSX listing "should" get things happening now - no doubt it will jump again seriously when Tengrela JORC is released IMO.


----------



## Sean K

Anyone following the politial dramas in Ivory Coast at the moment? How is this going to effect the development of PRU's assets there, if at all? Hard to think a virtual civil war is good for business?


----------



## Ajax

*Canary Events Perseus Mining presentation 18 February*

I attended the Africa Gold conference held by Canary events at Tattersall's club in Sydney on Thursday 18 February.

There was a lot of good information by all presenters (Gryphon-Burkina Faso, Azumah-Ghana, Perseus-Ghana/Cote d-Ivoire , Castle-Ghana, MDL-Senegal and Chalice-Eritrea) with a very upbeat outlook for exploration in West Africa. 

Mark Calderwood spoke on Perseus.

My comments posted on another forum included

"At one point Mark Calderwood said Perseus either had or would have 7 drilling rigs operating at Ayunfuri and 5 at Tengrela (12 rigs drilling similtaneously).

Also said would drill 220,000 metres (i.e. 220 kilometres) this (calendar?) year and that for every 50,000 metres drilled usually resulted in another 500,000 ounces (dependant on quality of ground of course).

Calderwood envisages adding at least 500,000 ounces each year into foreseeable future.

Said company had sufficient funds to develop Ayunfuri to completion now (if all drilling exploration ceased) but shareholders wanted more drilling. 

There would be resource upgrades and increases later this year (around middle of year). Commencement of construction of Ayunfuri plant will occur once EPA approval received (which should be this quarter or early next quarter). He did not percieve any likely difficulties with EPA approval.

Perseus was the standout from presenters for size of gold resources. 

Video available on Canary Events site soon. Videos from last years gold presentations only on site at the moment:-

http://www.canaryevents.com.au/pastforums/

Warwick Grigor-BGF Securities in introduction was asked which company stood out from presenters today (I think as value or enterprise value per ounce). He said Perseus. Grigor also said that gold could reach as much as $5000/ounce in next few years.


----------



## Miner

*Re: Canary Events Perseus Mining presentation 18 February*



Ajax said:


> I attended the Africa Gold conference held by Canary events at Tattersall's club in Sydney on Thursday 18 February.
> 
> There was a lot of good information by all presenters (Gryphon-Burkina Faso, Azumah-Ghana, Perseus-Ghana/Cote d-Ivoire , Castle-Ghana, MDL-Senegal and Chalice-Eritrea) with a very upbeat outlook for exploration in West Africa.
> 
> Mark Calderwood spoke on Perseus.
> 
> My comments posted on another forum included
> 
> "At one point Mark Calderwood said Perseus either had or would have 7 drilling rigs operating at Ayunfuri and 5 at Tengrela (12 rigs drilling similtaneously).
> 
> Also said would drill 220,000 metres (i.e. 220 kilometres) this (calendar?) year and that for every 50,000 metres drilled usually resulted in another 500,000 ounces (dependant on quality of ground of course).
> 
> Calderwood envisages adding at least 500,000 ounces each year into foreseeable future.
> 
> Said company had sufficient funds to develop Ayunfuri to completion now (if all drilling exploration ceased) but shareholders wanted more drilling.
> 
> There would be resource upgrades and increases later this year (around middle of year). Commencement of construction of Ayunfuri plant will occur once EPA approval received (which should be this quarter or early next quarter). He did not percieve any likely difficulties with EPA approval.
> 
> Perseus was the standout from presenters for size of gold resources.
> 
> Video available on Canary Events site soon. Videos from last years gold presentations only on site at the moment:-
> 
> http://www.canaryevents.com.au/pastforums/
> 
> Warwick Grigor-BGF Securities in introduction was asked which company stood out from presenters today (I think as value or enterprise value per ounce). He said Perseus. Grigor also said that gold could reach as much as $5000/ounce in next few years.




Thanks Ajax for sharing your learning from the presentation.

It is also heartening to see the upbeat shown by PRU .

PRU is no doubt the next gold king for 2010-2020. 

I however will take the comment from BGF Securities with a pinch of salt. It is primarily Warwick / BGF has strong conflict of interest having raised money for PRU few times. The commission has helped the bulging of BGF Securities. It is a cash cow for them. Why should BGF would flatter any other gold company in the seminar ?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: Canary Events Perseus Mining presentation 18 February*



Miner said:


> I however will take the comment from BGF Securities with a pinch of salt. It is primarily Warwick / BGF has strong conflict of interest having raised money for PRU few times. The commission has helped the bulging of BGF Securities. It is a cash cow for them. Why should BGF would flatter any other gold company in the seminar ?
> 
> Cheers



Good point miner. I can't see how Grigor can be taken seriously with his comments on PRU, and I wouldn't just take them with a grain of salt, but completely ignore them. 

In regard to my comments above about Ivory Coast, Lihir was well and truly grilled recently on the effect of the polical turmoil and they claim that it is business as normal in regard to their operations there, so maybe it's all ok for PRU? Maybe..

Should be some more news on Tengrela over the coming weeks.

From the last drilling update on 21 Jan:



> Managing Director, Mark Calderwood’s comments
> 
> “Infill drilling is well advanced and resource modelling for the definitive feasibility study (“DFS”) is scheduled to be completed in April 2010, with the DFS completed in 2010.
> 
> “From late February onwards extensional and exploration drilling will again become the main focus at Tengrela. During the December Quarter the Company completed 24,000m of drilling at Tengrela and it is targeting 125,000m of drilling in 2010, mostly within the first three quarters.”




Some people scoff at H&S's but don't want this one to pander out. Hard to see $1.50 breaking down without a major gold and market correction though.


----------



## Slipperz

*Re: Canary Events Perseus Mining presentation 18 February*



kennas said:


> Good point miner. I can't see how Grigor can be taken seriously with his comments on PRU, and I wouldn't just take them with a grain of salt, but completely ignore them.
> 
> In regard to my comments above about Ivory Coast, Lihir was well and truly grilled recently on the effect of the polical turmoil and they claim that it is business as normal in regard to their operations there, so maybe it's all ok for PRU? Maybe..
> 
> Should be some more news on Tengrela over the coming weeks.
> 
> From the last drilling update on 21 Jan:
> 
> 
> 
> Some people scoff at H&S's but don't want this one to pander out. Hard to see $1.50 breaking down without a major gold and market correction though.




Currently on the sidelines after a nice profit from it's last run up to 2.12.

SP seems to be tracking sideways waiting for news, but even after good drilling reports it tends to fall back after a spike.

Seriously undervalued IMHO given the resource they have and the potential out there in elephant country. 

Might look to take a position again closer to the DFS  which is only 4-8 weeks away at this stage.


----------



## Ajax

Hi Slipperz,

two items of interest posted on another forum.

(1) Possible inclusion of PRU in S & P /ASX 200 on March 19 when quarterly review of index announced on 5 March 2010. 

"(MDL.AU) and Perseus Mining (PRU.AU) are likely to get S&P/ASX 200 index inclusion on March 19, according to Morgan Stanley. Notes S&P's next quarterly index review due to be announced on March 5." 

(2) Mark Calderwood is attending the BMO Metals conference in Florida, US 
(28 February to 3 March 2010) although Perseus is not presenting.

All the heavyweight gold miners are there- Anglogold Ashanti, Lihir, Newmont mining, Barrick Gold so the conference would be an good opportunity to meet with the directors of these companies.

Agenda/list of presenters:-

http://www.bmocm.com/conferences/showAgenda.aspx?id=270

List of participants:-

http://www.bmocm.com/conferences/metalsandmining2010/participating/ 

About BMO Metals conference:-

http://www.bmocm.com/conferences/metalsandmining2010/


----------



## Sean K

*Perseus pounces on Burey Gold to boost gold exposure in Africa *

Robin Bromby From: The Australian March 08, 2010 12:00AM 

IT didn't rate much of a mention, but possibly the most intriguing deal of the week was the move by Perseus Mining (PRU) to take a 19.9 per cent stake in Burey Gold (BYR). 

Perseus is gearing up to become a gold miner in Ghana, for which it has been raising big money, and has advanced exploration in Ivory Coast. So, at first blush, it seems an unnecessary diversion to be ploughing $1.39 million into a company that has few exploration runs on the board and is working in Guinea, a country just emerging from military rule and way up the political risk list.

Here at Pure Speculation (where, admittedly, we often put two and two together and come up with 28) the theory is that Perseus saw a bargain and grabbed it. Burey's share price has been hit by the political risk factor and Perseus, being a West Africa veteran, could see past that.

Moreover, if you want to make acquisitions in the region, there aren't many cheapies around. Burey is capitalised at just $7.8m, compared with $21.5m for the other penny stock, Signature Metals (SBL). Then it's a step up to Azumah Resources (AZM) at $39.3m and Adamus Resources (ADU) at $113m. Burey was probably the last of the bargain buys.

And while many thought Perseus's interest was the Mansounia gold project in Guinea, it is believed the Burey project to which it is most attracted is Balatindi, previously explored by Mining Italiana, which identified it as a primary gold, uranium and copper occurrence. While there has been plenty of work done at Mansounia, by contrast, none of it has lifted that project above its large but low-grade status.

Meanwhile, Stock Resource has put a "buy at up to $1.88" on Perseus, describing the company as one of its favoured West African gold explorers. Last month Perseus dual-listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and Stock Resource believes that move will see the company replicate the experience of the former Australia-listed company, Red Back Mining. Since moving to Toronto in 2004, Red Back's value soared and now stands at about $6 billion, 10 times that of Perseus. In other words, the PRU action should be on the upside.

Adamus called a trading halt on Friday. The word is that the junior is making a $9m placement to institutions, which we believe is several times oversubscribed, and will be raising another $21.5m through a one-for-five rights issue at 36c a share. The stock closed on Friday at 40c.


----------



## Sean K

That H&S didn't eventuate fortunately with the clear break up and then consolidation and further movement towards all time highs. Looks to have the potential to be building up to something now. Nice consolidation. Obviouslt LGL have thei own plans in the market, and surely PRU could be on the cards. 

I'm not sure if it looks pricey or nat at about $90 oz au to EV for a developer, but as a long term producer still cheap. Just got to watch for whatever future dilution takes place with any more unscheduled capital raisings...


----------



## Sean K

In the Australian:



> Perseus Mining (PRU) $2.05
> 
> STILL on big announcements, gold junior Perseus has trumpeted grades of up to 1216 grams a tonne at its Tengrela project on the Ivory Coast.
> 
> Tengrela is the second-string project to Central Ashanti in Ghana, a 7 million-ounce gorilla. Tengrela already has a 1 million-ounce resource, with a maiden reserves statement due by June's end. Combined, the projects put Perseus on course to be the third-biggest Australian-based producer with annual output of 400,000 ounces a year, which makes us wonder whether Newcrest, which has lobbed a bid for Lihir, chose the wrong target.
> 
> Criterion had Perseus as a spec buy at $1.24 last September and then a sell in December at $1.95. Miners, like children, should be rewarded for good grades so we'll promote Perseus to a hold.



1216 g/t isn't bad. 

The full results announced on 8 April:



> FURTHER HIGH GRADE DRILL RESULTS TENGRELA GOLD PROJECT
> Best Results Include 8m at 325g/t Au
> 
> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) is pleased to provide an update on exploration activities at the Company’s Tengrela Gold Project in the Ivory Coast.
> 
> Recent significant drill intercepts from resource drilling at the Sissingue prospect are summarized in Table 1 below. These included:
> 
> RC hole SLC228 - 8m at 325g/t Au from 96m including 2m at 1,216g/t Au from 98m, followed by 36m at 3.1g/t Au from 104m to the end of the hole;
> RC hole SLC226 - 110m at 4.0g/t Au from 18m to the end of hole including 16m at 11.3g/t Au from 28m;
> RC hole SLC224 - 84m at 3.6g/t Au from 16m to the end of hole including 2m at 73.4g/t Au from 30m;
> RC hole SRC875 - 60m at 3.3g/t Au from 30m to the end of hole including 2m at 10.5g/t Au from 30m and 2m at 38.4g/t from 84m;
> RC hole SLC230 - 22m at 1.4g/t Au from 14m and 56m at 3.4g/t Au from 84m to the end of the hole; and
> RC hole SRC939 - 16m at 6.5g/t Au from 10m and 4m at 20.3g/t Au from 50m.




Some pretty impressive numbers there. Going to be a huge deposit eventually. 

PRU seem destined to have at least 10m ounces in the ground across their 2 projects. Hopefully they can get mining while gold is still going well. 

Really surprised that this has stayed independant. That mny ounces just laying about and untapped should have been picked up by a major over the past 2 years while it was cheap.


----------



## Sean K

Some more amazing results from Ivory Coast.



> *DRILL RESULTS -TENGRELA GOLD PROJECT*
> 
> 6m at 476g/t, 6m at 429g/t, 22m at 72.1g/t and 8m at 65.7g/t Au
> 
> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) is pleased to provide an update on exploration activities at the Company’s Tengrela Gold Project in the Ivory Coast.
> 
> Recent significant drill intercepts from resource drilling at the Sissingue prospect are summarized in Table 1 below. These included:
> 
> RC hole SLC245 - 8m at 65.7g/t Au from 50m including 2m at 252g/t Au from 54m;
> RC hole SLC246 - 18m at 7.5g/t Au from 8m including 6m at 18.3g/t Au from 18m, 6m at 429g/t Au from 34m including 2m at 1,277g/t Au from 34m;
> RC hole SLC247 - 6m at 476g/t Au from 56m including 2m at 1,421g/t Au from 56m and 30m at 1.6g/t from 68m;
> RC hole SLC249 - 22m at 72.1g/t Au from 66m including 4m at 389g/t Au from 78m; and
> RC hole SLC264 - 14m at 6.5g/t Au from 80m to the end of hole including 2m at 40.0g/t Au at the end of the hole.




This is going to be a major gold producer in the coming years, as long as the @rse doesn't fall out of the gold market. 

Still relatively under the radar I think, even with a MC of $700m ish. Hard to believe the likes of GRY, RRL, EVG and TON are trading at higher numbers. Out of kilter. 

Can anyone explain what the listing in Canada and the cap raising does to their overall market capitalisation?


----------



## jonojpsg

Hey kennas, 
I was thinking of you the other day when the latest cap raising popped up

Still $1.94 is pretty good value to get capital at given current SP.  I too saw the infill results and jaw dropped - I'm REALLY looking forward to seeing a couple of hits like that 1-2km upstrike to make my eyes water

Agreed that $700m is undervalued by at least a factor of 2 IMO - with AShanti coming online next year and Tengrela the year after, this is another I am making a cornerstone of my portfolio through to my Europe trip in 2013


----------



## Sean K

jonojpsg said:


> Hey kennas,
> I was thinking of you the other day when the latest cap raising popped up
> 
> Still $1.94 is pretty good value to get capital at given current SP.  I too saw the infill results and jaw dropped - I'm REALLY looking forward to seeing a couple of hits like that 1-2km upstrike to make my eyes water
> 
> Agreed that $700m is undervalued by at least a factor of 2 IMO - with AShanti coming online next year and Tengrela the year after, this is another I am making a cornerstone of my portfolio through to my Europe trip in 2013



Jono, if POG stays above $1000 for the coming 5-10 years then this is a sure winner and should see it's mc go at least the way you think. As a caveat, West Africa needs to stay stable and the political troubles in Ivory Coast need to be sorted. If all goes to plan they'll be producing 400k oz pa from 2 mines for some time. I think CNT is an decent peer comparison and they are just over $2b mc.


----------



## JTLP

PRU continue to get some nice drill hits at their respective projects. This time the hits have come from the Central Ashanti Gold Project (CAGP).

So what's the story behind PRU? Do they have any Australian exposure at all? They are shoring up a very hefty gold reserve...seem to be ticking all the right boxes with low opex on their projects...listing on the TSX and cash in the kitty...what gives with the MC? Shouldn't it be a fair bit higher right now? Or are sovereign risk/global factors keeping this one at bay?


----------



## shag

JTLP said:


> PRU continue to get some nice drill hits at their respective projects. This time the hits have come from the Central Ashanti Gold Project (CAGP).
> 
> So what's the story behind PRU? Do they have any Australian exposure at all? They are shoring up a very hefty gold reserve...seem to be ticking all the right boxes with low opex on their projects...listing on the TSX and cash in the kitty...what gives with the MC? Shouldn't it be a fair bit higher right now? Or are sovereign risk/global factors keeping this one at bay?




i think they are just a little unloved, plus the cap raising and spp, even tho it looks good to me.
i suspect this run past 2buks might finally be the breakout, due to a rest from a grt run, plus dosh in the bank...
i just treated it as a buying opp.
they also were quite solid during recent gfc issues etc.
look at azm, a newsheet spruik and all go....


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## Ajax

Macquarie Bank margin loan lvr on Perseus changes next week....

i.e. current % of holding to be held by borrower 55% (Macquarie wil lend 45%)

From mid next week current % of holding to be held by borrower 35% (Macquarie wil lend 65%).


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## eddyeagle

Got into PRU on Friday and it shot up almost 10% today and closed at all time highs in the face of the market getting smashed! Not a bad day’s work. A few of the African miners seem to be on a bit of a roll at the moment – AZM, GRY etc.


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## Sean K

I'm watching the market closely now for more panic selling which will probably effect all stocks including those still with outstanding potential. Think back to the crazy sell off of this early last year. I'm waiting patiently for that to happen again and that should create another great opportunity here. I think we all agree that PRU are looking at 10m ounce plus on their 2 main projects and at production should be rated between $120 and $200 an ounce like most producers, if they don't **** it up.


----------



## Sean K

Pretty amazing failure of the significant breakout through $2.10. Complete lack of follow through which is unusual. Must have been one of those general market panic sell off days.

$1.50 should be a significant floor if it continues that way. $2.10 now an even greater hurdle.


----------



## Ajax

Perseus Mining got a mention in the Smart Money section of the Weekend Financial Review (page 40) in an article headed "Resources tipped to bounce back"...I'll quote only a small amount of the article for research purposes.

...

"Grant Craighead from independent research firm Stock Resource, sees the most attractive value in copper and gold. He recommends buying miners with offshore assets as they are not affected by the resource super profits tax"

...

"Most of the problems in the last few weeks have all been financial market turmoil, but when looking at the physical demand side of things, it's been holding up really well".

...

"(As for gold) he likes emerging West African producers such as Perseus Mining and Gryphon Minerals below $2 and 71c respectively".


----------



## eddyeagle

From announcement today:

_Perseus Managing Director, Mark Calderwood’s Comments
“Now that the EPA approval is to hand, it’s ‘all systems go’ at the Central Ashanti Gold
Project.”
“We are on target for achieving a first gold pour in the third quarter of 2011.”
“The $140 million raised in recent equity issues and the project financing ensure that the
CAGP is fully funded while the Company is able to maintain its exploration effort and fast
track development of the Sissingue project at Tengrela in Ivory Coast – recent new exploration
discoveries in Ivory Coast and Ghana and progress at Sissingue demonstrate the value of this
strategy.”
“We are not expecting to draw more than US$65 million of the CAGP project loan facility
unless funds held are required to fast track Sissingue” Mr Calderwood said._


----------



## Sean K

eddyeagle said:


> From announcement today:
> 
> _Perseus Managing Director, Mark Calderwood’s Comments
> “Now that the EPA approval is to hand, it’s ‘all systems go’ at the Central Ashanti Gold
> Project.”
> “We are on target for achieving a first gold pour in the third quarter of 2011.”
> “The $140 million raised in recent equity issues and the project financing ensure that the
> CAGP is fully funded while the Company is able to maintain its exploration effort and fast
> track development of the Sissingue project at Tengrela in Ivory Coast – recent new exploration
> discoveries in Ivory Coast and Ghana and progress at Sissingue demonstrate the value of this
> strategy.”
> “We are not expecting to draw more than US$65 million of the CAGP project loan facility
> unless funds held are required to fast track Sissingue” Mr Calderwood said._



It's taking a long time to get this into operation. They had enough ounces ages ago to go to production. 3rd Q 2011 is crazy. Start bloody digging boys!


----------



## Sean K

Looks to be a potential breakout again, but $2.10 is pretty solid. Would be surprised if it went through and followedf up, but if she does, is very significant. A true breakout would see it run quite freely you'd expect. 

Pending world imminent implosion of course.


----------



## eddyeagle

Are you onboard at the moment Kennas or still out of equities?

Diggers and Drillers newsletter recently suggested that if PRU emulates its closest peer - Red Back Mining, PRU's market cap could be increased by 4.6 times ie. a share price of $9.55.


----------



## Sean K

eddyeagle said:


> Are you onboard at the moment Kennas or still out of equities?



Still completely out. The world still scares me. Very tempted to get back in to PRU and add some under $2.00 and keep adding on any major correction, but there's just so much uncertainty, I'm more happy earning 6% ish in the bank right now. Holding fast until there's some certainty about the world. It's a few years away perhaps. However, if there's a really good sell off, will be hard not to take advantage of it.


----------



## Ajax

Kennas,

it closed at $2.19 today (Thursday 17 June 2010). Starting to look interesting.

It needs to convincingly break $2.26 on my chart (which I have as resistance level)

This part of Rodman and Renshaw Research on Perseus on 11 May 2010 is still relevant:-

Lead Project Central Ghana Gold Project (Ayanfuri), Ghana

Ownership 90% ADU, Government 10% (on development)

Proven/Probable Reserve 2.1 mill. oz (100% of project)

Resources 5.2 mill. oz (100% of project)

Status Awaiting EPA approval, then construction commences

Proposed gold production Year 1, 230,000 oz p.a., Years 1-4 average 220,000 oz

First Production Q3 2011

Mine Life > 10 years

Capex US$160m for a 5.5 mtpa plant

Cash Costs Year 1 and 2 US$392/oz, Mine Average US$494/oz

Electricity Costs 8-10 ¢ kWh/hr - 4 km from a 16KV line

Hedging May hedge 170-230,000 oz, depending on debt level

Debt Finance Offer on the table for US$80m

Recent Share Issue April 2010 - placed C$91m in Canada at $1.94, and A$29m in Aust.


----------



## eddyeagle

With gold up approx 20 points today, tomorrow should be interesting for PRU. 

Hopefully will bust through 2.26!

I added to my holding yesterday.


----------



## eddyeagle

Well there you go - closed today at an all time high of $2.35 on strong volume. 

With no overhead resistance and POG performing strongly, I am quite excited about PRU.


----------



## Sean K

Outstanding breakout. Again. 

The third biggest no brainer on the stock exchange after BRM and GIR a year ago. 

With LGL and NCM getting married, you would think te likes of PRU will be walked down the isle one day.


----------



## Slipperz

kennas said:


> Outstanding breakout. Again.
> 
> The third biggest no brainer on the stock exchange after BRM and GIR a year ago.
> 
> With LGL and NCM getting married, you would think te likes of PRU will be walked down the isle one day.




Certainly looks to be well on it's way

I tried to revisit PRU yesterday ( been in and out a few times) but  I  was away from my computer all day.

Wasn't too happy to see my unfilled order languishing at
 2.20 and the sp at 2.36.


----------



## exgeo

> The third biggest no brainer on the stock exchange after BRM and GIR a year ago.




So what's your current no-brainer? In my spreadsheet of around 100 junior gold's, Carrick is one of the cheapest with a decent sized resource, in terms of market cap/oz's gold.


----------



## Miner

exgeo said:


> So what's your current no-brainer? In my spreadsheet of around 100 junior gold's, Carrick is one of the cheapest with a decent sized resource, in terms of market cap/oz's gold.




Mate 

I did not follow this CRK or Carrick (like imitation from Barrick !!!).

Interestingly Ian Burston is the Deputy Chair but JP MOrgan unloaded tons of this share from their portfolio by 7 % spreaded over two days. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100617/pdf/31qwg384xd7cd1.pdf
Sorry off the topic for PRU.


----------



## GumbyLearner

GumbyLearner said:


> Kennas
> 
> Do you think there could be any geo-political instability now that PRU have divested their stake in Manas and the US are pulling out of Kyrgzstan?




Do PRU still have assets in Kyrgzstan? 

Just wondering considering the current conflict occurring in that part of the world?


----------



## Sean K

exgeo said:


> So what's your current no-brainer?



No no-brainers on my list at the moment, otherwise I wouldn't be 100% cash. Longer term PRU probably still holds value. AND at $1.5b with about 3m oz potential 5m + high grade and PRU $900m with 7m oz potential 10m + ish low grade is food for thought. CNT also double PRU mc, and similar story. But, no longer no-brainer material like it was under $1.00.


----------



## Sean K

GumbyLearner said:


> Do PRU still have assets in Kyrgzstan?
> 
> Just wondering considering the current conflict occurring in that part of the world?



Just their holdings in Manas I think Gumby. Not following that at all really. The political situation in Ivory Coast is probably of more interest to PRU.


----------



## Slipperz

Back in today.

Not much of a sock draw trader but for a long term goldie PRU will do me.

Lets see where we are in a few quarters.


----------



## Sean K

Slipperz said:


> Back in today.
> 
> Not much of a sock draw trader but for a long term goldie PRU will do me.
> 
> Lets see where we are in a few quarters.



Not anywhere near as 'cheap' as it was some time ago. MC approaching $1b isn't it? eeeek!

I'm looking elsewhere for a bargain now, that could be multibagger potential. PRU has had it's day and is turning into a M&D stock. Almost a long term investment. If that's your thing. Unless there is a capitulation again. 

Still cheaper than some other goldies, like an AND, but I think they are well overcooked.

2c


----------



## jancha

kennas said:


> Not anywhere near as 'cheap' as it was some time ago. MC approaching $1b isn't it? eeeek!
> 
> I'm looking elsewhere for a bargain now, that could be multibagger potential. PRU has had it's day and is turning into a M&D stock. Almost a long term investment. If that's your thing. Unless there is a capitulation again.
> 
> Still cheaper than some other goldies, like an AND, but I think they are well overcooked.
> 
> 2c



Kennas
Have followed & traded PRU in the past & profited as you have by the sounds of it. 
Im also looking for something to follow & invest in the way of a Gold explorer or producer.
Not asking for advice as i'll do my own research but what if any multibaggers are you looking into atm?  
Understand if you dont wish to share.


----------



## Sean K

jancha said:


> Kennas
> Have followed & traded PRU in the past & profited as you have by the sounds of it.
> Im also looking for something to follow & invest in the way of a Gold explorer or producer.
> Not asking for advice as i'll do my own research but what if any multibaggers are you looking into atm?
> Understand if you dont wish to share.



I don't have anything on the radar at the moment. Maybe because I'm not looking very closely, or because I think the market is fully priced across the board, especially for junior goldies. They were absolute bargains at the bottom of the crisis when we all thought they'd go under. Nice and easy in retrospect, as we are lemmings, but really, so many companies trading under NTA at that time and the average pe around 7 or something. Was a once in a generation opportunity to find multi baggers in the resource sector. I'm not sure if we will see that again in our time. I can only hope.


----------



## Slipperz

kennas said:


> Not anywhere near as 'cheap' as it was some time ago. MC approaching $1b isn't it? eeeek!
> 
> I'm looking elsewhere for a bargain now, that could be multibagger potential. PRU has had it's day and is turning into a M&D stock. Almost a long term investment. If that's your thing. Unless there is a capitulation again.
> 
> Still cheaper than some other goldies, like an AND, but I think they are well overcooked.
> 
> 2c




The market seems to be agreeing with you. Nothing quite like buying at the top of the market is there 

Loaded up at 2.30 this week and then again at 2.20  so I'm averaged at 2.30.

Hopefullt the POG won't go off the cliff every other day next week and we'll be back on track.

Looking forward to the mid year resource upgrade result


----------



## Sean K

Slipperz said:


> The market seems to be agreeing with you. Nothing quite like buying at the top of the market is there
> 
> Loaded up at 2.30 this week and then again at 2.20  so I'm averaged at 2.30.
> 
> Hopefullt the POG won't go off the cliff every other day next week and we'll be back on track.
> 
> Looking forward to the mid year resource upgrade result



PRU still a good long term play if geoecopolitical situation maintains trend. If the world gets out of financial mess, and we all start hugging, then gold will be smashed and likewise, gold companies. Place your bet!


----------



## Sean K

I am very surprised and dissapointed at the resource 'upgrade' at Sissingue. They have upgraded the um, grade, but I was expecting the overall ounces to be up around the 1.5m mark. I'm confused. 



> NEWS RELEASE
> 19 JULY 2010
> SISSINGUE MINERAL RESOURCE UPGRADE TENGRELA GOLD PROJECT, IVORY COAST
> 
> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) is pleased to announce an upgrade to the Sissingue Mineral Resource at the Company’s Tengrela Gold Project in Ivory Coast.
> 
> Highlights include:
> Mineral Resource at 1g/t Au cut-off:
> Measured and Indicated: 9.8Mt at 2.5g/t for 782,670 oz (37% higher in grade than 2009) Inferred: 3.4Mt at 1.7g/t for 184,500 oz
> Mineral Resource at 0.5g/t Au cut-off: Measured and Indicated: 15.2Mt at 1.9g/t for 914,550 oz (43% additional ounces) Inferred: 7.2Mt at 1.2g/t for 274,200 oz
> The application of high grade cuts (grade capping) to the assays reduced the reported Mineral Resource grade above a 1g/t Au cut-off by 32%.
> Drilling is continuing on infill, extensional targets and on other prospects at the Tengrela Project.
> Definitive feasibility study on track for completion late October 2010.
> Optimisation studies suggest significantly higher grades in early years than previously thought.




I might need to look into it more..


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> I am very surprised and dissapointed at the resource 'upgrade' at Sissingue. They have upgraded the um, grade, but I was expecting the overall ounces to be up around the 1.5m mark. I'm confused.
> 
> 
> 
> I might need to look into it more..




I'm with you on that one kennas!  When I saw under 1m I was a bit shocked - obviously the top cut method has had a pretty significant impact on the really high grade core that's there...in the order of 2-300koz from what I saw, which would put it closer to the 1.2Moz.  Still below what we thought would come out

The improved grades for the early years of production though IMO makes for a more likely takeover - if PRU can be producing 450koz/annum @$500ish that's a nice little free cash flow of $225m/annum by 2013 assuming $1000/oz which is pretty conservative.  Slap a multiple of 6 on that and that's a 50% premium on current MC.

Oh well, wait and see as usual.


----------



## Sean K

Interesting to see Kinross take Redback Mining for $7.1b. Very similar story to PRU really, but about 3 years more advanced and a couple of million more ounces, that PRU will eventually catch up on I reckon. 

$7.1b! 

PRU current EV is about $820m.

If they don't issue any more shares, and resources grow to match Redback, and if they were valued at $7b, the sp would be about $16.50. 

Nice uptrend, creating some resistance around the $2.50 area. Just keeps going really. Good support just above $2.00.

All dependant on POG staying steady and market non implosion of course.


----------



## Sean K

Good results continue. The infil will add to Reserves and Step Out to the total ounces. 

I'm confounded as to how they are staying independant with such resources and into development when POG is looking so strong for the immediate to mid term. 

NEWS RELEASE
17 August 2010

EXPLORATION UPDATE
Significant intercepts from Ghana and Ivory Coast Projects 

Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) is pleased to provide an exploration update on the Company’s gold projects in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Highlights include:
 The 30,186m drilled in July, including 10,469m of core, is a Company record.
 Significant intercepts from step-out drilling at Abnabna-AF Gap, Fobinso and Fetish on the Central Ashanti Gold Project (“CAGP”) in Ghana included 93m at 3.1g/t and 21m at 4.2g/t Au from Fobinso, 7m at 19.2g/t Au from Fetish, and 41m at 3.1g/t, 95m at 1.4g/t and 13m at 5.5g/t Au from Abnabna -AF-Gap.
 Other infill drill results from the CAGP in Ghana included 82m at 3.8g/t, 119m at 2.5g/t and 75m at 1.7g/t Au from Esuajah South and 36m at 3.2g/t Au from Chirawewa.
 Anomalous results from drilling on the Dadieso and Kwatechi licenses in Ghana included 8m at 13.5g/t, 12m at 4.0g/t and 10m at 3.8g/t Au from Dadieso and 10m at 3.0g/t Au from Kwatechi.
 Significant deeper core drilling results on the Sissingue deposit on the Tengrela Gold Project in Ivory Coast included 23m at 2.7g/t, 39.7m at 2.2g/t and 6m at 8.0g/t Au.


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> Good results continue. The infil will add to Reserves and Step Out to the total ounces.
> 
> *I'm confounded as to how they are staying independant* with such resources and into development when POG is looking so strong for the immediate to mid term.




My sentiments exactly kennas  They are hurtling towards 10m oz AND producing upwards of 400koz a year within 3 years - should make them a plum target  Might be time to jump on for that 30-50% TO premium...


----------



## eddyeagle

All time high close of $2.52 today on big volume - great stuff. 

I'm liking the chart. 

If you look back at 2009 it spent about 7-8 months (feb - sep) fluctuating around the 80c mark before going on a 10 week rampage and doubling in price. It then spent another 7-8 months (oct -june) consolidating around the 1.80 mark (albeit with a bit more volatility) but I hope this consolidation has set the tone for another solid leg up! September could be interesting!


----------



## Sean K

eddyeagle said:


> All time high close of $2.52 today on big volume - great stuff.
> 
> I'm liking the chart.




Very nice break through that $2.50 level and then just ran away. Is that an evening star? $2.50 should be good support to the downside from here.

Congrats to PRU holders, what a run.


----------



## Boggo

Weekly chart looks even better kennas.

PRU, AVO and IAU have been/are recent standout stocks seemingly regardless of what the rest of the market is doing.
.


----------



## Sean K

Boggo said:


> Weekly chart looks even better kennas.
> 
> PRU, AVO and IAU have been/are recent standout stocks seemingly regardless of what the rest of the market is doing.
> .



How about that drop during the GFC?  If I'd have been following this more closely before then I might have had a few more chickens running around the coop.


----------



## skyQuake

Should have seen last nite's price action in Canada.

Ran to $4.30~ Australian cause some bot screwed up lol.


----------



## Sean K

Not too many better performers the past 2 years. Amazing really. If you put an AND per ounces to MC on them ($1400 an ounce) they'd have a $9.8b MC. I think Redback went for $7b. so they still have some upside perhaps in the current climate. It's an Indian Summer for gold explorers really.*


----------



## TabJockey

13c, 4.4pc jump on open today, smells like another juicy announcement.

Wish I had the cash to jump back in  Would buy in at anything under $3.50 before christmas.


----------



## TabJockey

And another 8pc jump, whatever is in the works must be pretty substancial.

Bought at 79c and sold a year later at $2.40 which isnt bad but $3.25 only a month later makes me a bit sad


----------



## Sean K

TabJockey said:


> And another 8pc jump, whatever is in the works must be pretty substancial.
> 
> Bought at 79c and sold a year later at $2.40 which isnt bad but $3.25 only a month later makes me a bit sad



Nice one.  That's a fantastic win. One of the best performing ASX200 stocks the past year or so. 

If the break through $3.00 is a true break you'd expect that to now be support and a bounce from that area.


----------



## skc

kennas said:


> Nice one.  That's a fantastic win. One of the best performing ASX200 stocks the past year or so.
> 
> If the break through $3.00 is a true break you'd expect that to now be support and a bounce from that area.




Printed a low of $2.57 this morning on a 2 minute panic candle. Still down 6% at the moment. Volume is high for this time of the day. No other gold stock has moved as much.

Perfect buying opportunity on retracement? Or something more significant?


----------



## TabJockey

skc said:


> Printed a low of $2.57 this morning on a 2 minute panic candle. Still down 6% at the moment. Volume is high for this time of the day. No other gold stock has moved as much.
> 
> Perfect buying opportunity on retracement? Or something more significant?




Its been running on a stream of good and great news. I think that the market is just reacting to a lack of news and taking thier massive profits. I would buy in if I had the cash, its obviously a volatile stock. Also they are not too far away from production now, and once that starts all the conservatives will get on board.


----------



## TabJockey

Bought in today at $2.72. If the stock price does not go up to $3 in 2 or 3 days I will have to sell something else to settle the PRU .

Its tough being a student nobody will lend you a few quid.


----------



## Boggo

skc said:


> Perfect buying opportunity on retracement?




My last entry was at $2.52, stopped out at $2.99.

Watching patiently at the action around $2.81 today to see if the sellers get control.

(click to expand)


----------



## TabJockey

The only reason for the drop was that an analyst dropped it to a hold, and moved his price target from 3.20 to 3.05, wasnt it?


----------



## skyQuake

TabJockey said:


> The only reason for the drop was that an analyst dropped it to a hold, and moved his price target from 3.20 to 3.05, wasnt it?




Looked like just a large position unwinding. The analyst recommendation came out a full day or two before the drop


----------



## Sean K

Stop losses / panic selling / coming back to reality for a while perhaps. Surprised 3 bucks didn't hold a little better, but not surprised by the bounce off that sell off. Nothing just keeps going up...


----------



## Sean K

I think Tengrela in Ivory Coast DFS and Reserve upgrade is due in October. 

Hopefully the numbers get bigger all round.

Aiming for 1m oz Reserves there by end of the year, might be a stretch.


----------



## jancha

kennas said:


> Stop losses / panic selling / coming back to reality for a while perhaps. Surprised 3 bucks didn't hold a little better, but not surprised by the bounce off that sell off. Nothing just keeps going up...





PRU.AX
 As of: 15:19

Last
 2.75
 Change
 -0.05 (-1.79% )

Volume
 1,042,618
 Day's Range
 2.73 - 2.79

Prev Close
 2.80
 52wk Range
 1.17 - 3.36

Open
 2.75
 EPS (ttm)
 N/A

Market Cap
 N/A
 P/E (ttm)
 N/A



Technical Analysis

Overall


 What's this

Targets
 Six months: 3.92     One year: 4.58 

Supports
 Support1: 2.56    Support2: 2.07 

Resistances
 Resistance1: 3.36    Resistance2: 3.92  

Pivot Point
 3.01  

Moving Averages
 MA(5): 2.87     MA(20): 3.00 

MA(100): 2.44     MA(250): 2.05 

MACD
 MACD(12,26): 0.03     Signal(12,26,9): 0.08 

Stochastic Oscillator
 %K(14,3): 25.32     %D(3): 27.57 

RSI
 RSI(14): 43.69 

52-Week
 High: 3.36  Low: 1.27  Change(%): 114.7

Average Volume(K)
 3-Month: 2329  10-Days 2264.030029 

Price and moving averages

Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is NEUTRAL in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands

PRU.AX has closed above bottom band by 9.2%. Bollinger Bands are 37.5% wider than normal. The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices. 

★ Strong Sell ★★ Sell ★★★ Neutral ★★★★ Buy ★★★★★ Strong Buy


----------



## Sean K

jancha said:


> Technical Analysis
> 
> Overall
> 
> Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is NEUTRAL in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.



Just on basic Support it should find a balance around the blue lines all things being equal. Other indicators confluating around that point also. 

Is confluating a word?


----------



## Boggo

Weekly chart tells the story, both the daily and weekly continue in the same direction.

(click to expand)


----------



## TabJockey

Anyone got any analysis  on the announcement today? Looks like we might see some healthy gains across the board today. *touch wood*


----------



## Sean K

TabJockey said:


> Anyone got any analysis  on the announcement today? Looks like we might see some healthy gains across the board today. *touch wood*



Further exploration success that could turn into more ounces pending future drilling. They've been very successful in discovering new deposits the past few years. Another 3m ounces would take them over the 10m mark and make them quite significant. We don't know the significance until follow up drilling to determine continuity and widths depths etc. Prospective though.

WEST AFRICAN EXPLORATION UPDATE
Accelerated Exploration Delivers New Discoveries

Perseus Managing Director, Mark Calderwood’s Comments

 “The Company has managed to complete 50,000m of drilling over the past two months, taking our total in the past seven months to 176,000m.”

“The assay flow from our increased exploration efforts is paying dividends, with several new potentially significant discoveries to add to two discoveries made last quarter.”

“The Company is now in a position to step up drilling to enable timely follow-up drilling of the large number of deposits and prospects identified to date.”

Highlights

• Several potentially significant new discoveries made at the Tengrela Gold Project in CÃ´te D’Ivoire, including:

Podio - First pass RC drilling returned several high-grade intercepts over 1.5km strike including 8m at 30.0g/t, 4m at 13.0g/t and 2m at 21.0g/t Au.

Sissingue East - Reconnaissance drilling returned 5m at 18.5g/t Au at the bottom of a 77m deep hole, 650m east of the main zone at Sissingue.

Papara - 12m at 5.0g/t Au in RAB drilling.


----------



## pedalofogus

Hi guys,

I am looking at adding PRU to my portfolio as another addition to my 'gold exposure' stocks.

For those of you that have been watching PRU for a long period of time, do you think it is a good choice as an exposure to the ever-rising price of gold?

Cheers
Pedalofogus


----------



## Sean K

PRU could be in the cross hairs for other smaller goldies now to try and fill the LGL void in the 'mid cap' area. KCN look like they're trying to fill the void, but PRU could quite possibly get in there if they wanted to also. It seems inevitable that they will be part of any further consolidation. Easy pickings for NCM if they wanted to bolt on 200-400k more ounces production per year.


----------



## jonojpsg

kennas said:


> PRU could be in the cross hairs for other smaller goldies now to try and fill the LGL void in the 'mid cap' area. KCN look like they're trying to fill the void, but PRU could quite possibly get in there if they wanted to also. It seems inevitable that they will be part of any further consolidation. Easy pickings for NCM if they wanted to bolt on 200-400k more ounces production per year.




Definitely!  Seems a bit strange that they haven't been picked up yet, or even had some interest expressed??  Given that the ounces are there and the plants being built, the price tag of $1.2b seems pretty reasonable.

If you look at it from the basis of price per oz production it's only $3000 per oz ($1.2bn/400koz).  

Given a cash margin at current Au price of about $800/oz it would only take 4 years to recoup that outlay then it's all good!  Even with the inevitable takeover premium, it's probably only 6 years, and with a resource base that covers that production for about 15-20 years.

Have been considering jumping back in at this level?


----------



## McCoy Pauley

PRU (either itself or through subsidiaries, like Manas Resources) has deposits in some fairly dodgy areas of the globe, though.

At least with LGL, the sovereign risk was relatively low.


----------



## Sean K

McCoy Pauley said:


> PRU (either itself or through subsidiaries, like Manas Resources) has deposits in some fairly dodgy areas of the globe, though.
> 
> At least with LGL, the sovereign risk was relatively low.



Yep, like Ivory Coast and PNG... 

Their key risk asset sitting on top of a volcano nonetheless....


----------



## McCoy Pauley

kennas said:


> Yep, like Ivory Coast and PNG...
> 
> Their key risk asset sitting on top of a volcano nonetheless....




Nah, I was thinking more of one of the ex-Soviet nations ending in 'stan' (Kyrgyzstan (sp)).

Some promising gold deposits but the country's government is highly corrupt.

PRU indirectly holds the deposits through its interest in Manas Resources.


----------



## shag

kennas said:


> Yep, like Ivory Coast and PNG...
> 
> Their key risk asset sitting on top of a volcano nonetheless....




i don't really get this phobia about dormant volcanoes.....
i'd rather b sitting in it than try keeping alive on say the nz roads. they really need to learn how to drive, and what a motorvehicle is and what occurs when u totally missuse it. 
the PIG ISLAND forests and camping grounds are much more dangerous too.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4270614/MP-tried-in-vain-to-save-shot-woman
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/4270774/Speed-alcohol-factors-in-girls-death

now a volcanoe ortwo going off up pig island sounds damn good to me....


----------



## pedalofogus

McCoy Pauley said:


> Nah, I was thinking more of one of the ex-Soviet nations ending in 'stan' (Kyrgyzstan (sp)).
> 
> Some promising gold deposits but the country's government is highly corrupt.
> 
> PRU indirectly holds the deposits through its interest in Manas Resources.




You sound as though you think corruption is a bad thing.  But some may see that as a opportunity............... 'oh no! i have dropped this massive bag of money in your office......and as a result of the shock you have accidentally signed the mining application for my mine in that pristine piece of rainforest'


----------



## Sean K

pedalofogus said:


> You sound as though you think corruption is a bad thing.  But some may see that as a opportunity............... 'oh no! i have dropped this massive bag of money in your office......and as a result of the shock you have accidentally signed the mining application for my mine in that pristine piece of rainforest'



Yep, there may be some advantages in a corrupt country where the competition and labour laws are a little suspect. Ivory Coast has had some significant issues recently, but LGLs operations seem to keep ticking over there. Likewise Lihir Island, which is a massive boon for the local people, while at the same time LGL got a swag of gold out of it. The locals a probably in two minds. They must be making a killing on the royalties now for doing absolutely nothing (vis a vis any aboriginal community in the Pilbara etc....), yet probably wish they could have developed it themselves. Obviously no chance of the later, so take those royalties JBs!

Back on to the takeover options for PRU, I am thinking that they are taken over by someone else considering their history of selling out of stuff.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

pedalofogus said:


> You sound as though you think corruption is a bad thing.  But some may see that as a opportunity............... 'oh no! i have dropped this massive bag of money in your office......and as a result of the shock you have accidentally signed the mining application for my mine in that pristine piece of rainforest'




Or you end up with a licence renewal application that goes ignored by the government for 12+ months like what happened to BHP.

And you should really read up on Securency if you think that graft and corruption is good business practices.


----------



## Sean K

McCoy Pauley said:


> Or you end up with a licence renewal application that goes ignored by the government for 12+ months like what happened to BHP.
> 
> And you should really read up on Securency if you think that graft and corruption is good business practices.



Yep, there have been several companies recently been smashed by local government irregularities particularly in Africa. Pay the fee.....


----------



## Sean K

ooooops, I think I sold this for a very nice profit around $1.50. ouch.



Really should have backed continued QE and expected gold to keep running. Seems like I jumped ship just as it left the station. 

Oh dear.


----------



## Buckfont

kennas said:


> ooooops, I think I sold this for a very nice profit around $1.50. ouch.
> 
> 
> 
> Really should have backed continued QE and expected gold to keep running. Seems like I jumped ship just as it left the station.
> 
> Oh dear.




Kennas I know what you mean. Bought Beadell (BDR) at 0.21c sold at 0.28c. Today at 0.58c. I`ll have to remember the old adage `double your money and then sell half,` or is that old hat?


----------



## Sean K

Looks like a pretty positive FS out on Ivory Coast. Into production late 2012. Destined to be a multimine operator at $500 an ounce ish opex. Payback will be pretty short if POG keeps above $1000 an ounce. 

Probably destined to be taken over shortly too. Why no one bought them when they were back at $1.00 ish is beyond me.


----------



## prawn_86

kennas said:


> Probably destined to be taken over shortly too. Why no one bought them when they were back at $1.00 ish is beyond me.




It's an inefficiency with our system. A company gets large by taking calculated risks, but when it is large it is too cumbersome and has too many sectors to answer too, so therefore can't take the 'risks' it used to and can only do takeovers that are a 'sure thing' which end up being anything but...


----------



## TabJockey

Anyone suspect that the SP drops of late are related to uncertainty of the POG?


----------



## eddyeagle

TabJockey said:


> Anyone suspect that the SP drops of late are related to uncertainty of the POG?




I would put it down to weakness across global stock markets, weakness in POG (has dropped more than 5% in a short space of time), Macquarie selling down, general profit taking etc. 

I will be looking to take advantage of the price weakness at some point in the near future.


----------



## Sean K

2010 was pretty average for PRU compared to 2009 I suppose. 

MC is around the $1.3b now I think which seems like a lot for an explorer with some time to go to real production and their number 2 deposit in a country about to go to war.

Long term trend consistently up and coming up to some resistance for a potential breakout. 

Would have to think that with the world still on it's knees that line will break and it'll continue on it's merry way....


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Long term trend consistently up and coming up to some resistance for a potential breakout.
> 
> Would have to think that with the world still on it's knees that line will break and it'll continue on it's merry way....



A decent correction in gold turned this down, maybe with Ivory Coast looking decidedly dodgy as an excuse. Trouble in the Middle East might be what the market needs to turn things around. This correction in PRU has been quite significant and breaking down through the blue area would be a significant technical breakdown and difficult to repair.


----------



## jonojpsg

Maybe just going to fill that little gap around 2.60?  Seems a long way down just to fill a gap though??  Would definitely have a sniff at them if they did drop back below 2.50


----------



## eddyeagle

Has been pretty quiet around here recently. The stock is taking a hammering too. I think those that are patient will be rewarded well with this stock. 

Announcement from the end of Feb looks good. Production is not far away at all! 

_

Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) (“Perseus”) is pleased to announce that pre-strip mining
operations have commenced at the Central Ashanti Gold Project (“CAGP”) in Ghana.
Mining will scale up over a period of six months, with the first ore scheduled to be mined in April to provide
a stockpile of ore for process plant commissioning.
With the excellent progress made to date on the process plant construction and infrastructure development,
the Company remains confident that gold production will start during the September quarter 2011.
Recent construction progress includes final preparation for the lift and assembly of the SAG mill and
ongoing installation of the 54 inch gyratory crusher.

Mark Calderwood, Managing Director’s Comments
“The commencement of mining and preparations for installation of the crusher and SAG mill are key
indicators that we are entering the final phase of implementation of the CAGP.”
“Initial mining of waste will facilitate completion of the ROM pad and assist in the tailings dam
construction. Grade control has commenced and a wide zone of ore is exposed in the floor of the Abnabna
pit.”
“Current reserves at the CAGP total 3.3Moz, with significant additional resources. The Company
anticipates further resource and reserve increases this year, and currently has eight drill rigs operating at
the CAGP.”_


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> This correction in PRU has been quite significant and breaking down through the blue area would be a significant technical breakdown and difficult to repair.
> 
> View attachment 41092



Well, she's held up ok and broke back pretty well from that support area. 

Sideways since Aug 10.

Might take another discovery, POG through $1500, or TO to break up.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like this business in the Ivory Coast might be coming to a potential conclusion which should support PRU.

I am STILL very surprised that they are independent.

My recommendation to NCM is to take them over along with GRY, consolidate, and then spin off all their Africa assets into an independent company.

Could free up gazillions and make them much for focussed and agile.


----------



## shag

kennas said:


> Looks like this business in the Ivory Coast might be coming to a potential conclusion which should support PRU.
> 
> I am STILL very surprised that they are independent.
> 
> My recommendation to NCM is to take them over along with GRY, consolidate, and then spin off all their Africa assets into an independent company.
> 
> Could free up gazillions and make them much for focussed and agile.




its like lihir imo, looked a great t/o target-i dont rate the volcanic risk(look at chch, we all knew the alpine fault was going to hammer chch n overdue, but yo behold an unknown series of faults RIGHT UNDER the very dilapidated peat bog, put the place where it belonged), but lihir sat untouched for years. you have to assume the volcanoe will too, well past the realistic minelife. if chch was lihir, ie a bussiness, sadly i doubt anyone would have bought it, as it was, considering its well known risk profile. 

a cap. raising for the boys, and not for us was really impressive. gry's second raising in close proximity has only a pathetic token amount for us also.


----------



## Ajax

*Re: PRU - Perseus Mining Resource Upgrade at Edikan Gold Mine Ghana*

Announced after market close today. Great Xmas present for shareholders.

Almost 1 million more measured and indicated gold resource ounces in Ghana. 

Takes total of reserves and measured and indicated reources and inferred resources across Ghana and Ivory Coast to almost 9 million ounces with more ounces to come for both (particularly Ivory Coast). Refer to chart on page 4 of the announcement...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PRU&E=ASX&N=572604 

The next good news should be an announcement that commercial "name plate" production levels have been achieved for gold production at the Edikan Gold Mine (also this month)...foreshadowed by Mark Calderwood in November Boardroom Radio interview.


----------



## Sean K

Some good infill drill results late last week on both projects and under the existing JORCs. Will add some more ounces to the next upgrade I suspect and move some more to the M&I. On their way to 10m ounces which just seems inevitable at this rate. Mining seems to be going as planned. I wonder what can surprise from here? Lots of drill results outstanding, perhaps a super rich zone somewhere...


----------



## Dreadweave

Can someone tell me whats happened int he past few days with PRU? The gap then the sudden drop. any ideas ?


----------



## skyQuake

Dreadweave said:


> Can someone tell me whats happened int he past few days with PRU? The gap then the sudden drop. any ideas ?




Well gold has been getting smashed recently. Look at NCM OGC KCN AQG etc
A huge fall in gold wouldn't do these midcap goldies any good...


----------



## Sean K

Dreadweave said:


> Can someone tell me whats happened int he past few days with PRU? The gap then the sudden drop. any ideas ?



At the mercy of POG. All goldies will be effected if POG doesn't look to have further upside. Take you bet.

EW will tell you it's all in the waves. Haven't seen a POG one in a while. Not since Radge called a W5 top at about 700 bucks on TV. Haven't seen him on the airwaves since.


----------



## Sean K

PRU one of the few W African goldies flickering with a heart beat. Probably helps when you actually do as you forecast. Unlike the troubling situation with AZM who have delayed FS for months and months. GRY showing no signs of life either. I suppose they are still explorers but they really should have progressed much faster and stuck to the main task. 

Next quarter PRU aiming for 50k oz at $600 an oz or so. Well on the way to 200k pa. Grades are pretty low at this stage but better than expected. 

Perhaps once all the political and security issues look to be stabilized in the region this and all WA will be back in favour. However, this is Africa! 

I wonder if anyone has run the ruler over these guys yet, since they can actually discover, develop and build mines to plan.... Maybe NCM will have a sniff. Or at least have a look to see how it's done!


----------



## Sean K

Well, after holding up OK and all fundamental points being covered they've been smashed like all others. $2.25 support looks critical.

The fundamental issues at play are probably POG which actually is still OK except for the potential of no more money printing, perhaps. 

The next is the political situation in West Africa and the potential hikes in taxes and royalties back to governments. Word is they are going to go north considerably and the MD of PRU noted it recently as a significant risk to the business. Like a 10%+ change in taxes or something. Massive for a junior, although PRU is over that mark.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Well, after holding up OK and all fundamental points being covered they've been smashed like all others. $2.25 support looks critical.



Seems to have hung on grimly to that support level. Bounced well. Will be interesting to see if they hit production forecast again. Quite an amazing story really. Getting into development on time, on budget, to forecast. What miner does that?


----------



## prawn_86

kennas said:


> Quite an amazing story really. Getting into development on time, on budget, to forecast. What miner does that?




Yeh one of the few to move from exploration to production pretty much without a hitch.

out of interest, what margins are htey operating at and what is their current P/E?


----------



## Sean K

They just keep kicking goals this mob. Everything on schedule, meeting targets, making a killing at these gold prices. Shame about the hedging but a necessity. Will be nice once they pay that off, although they'll have to do the same for SissinguÃ© I suppose. If the politics in W Africa smooth out and they don't decide to lift the tax rates too much as threatened then PRU is looking like a long term very good mid tier play. Until they get taken over.  

June activity report out a couple of days ago:



> • Record gold production of 52,670 oz during the June 2012 Quarter (the “Quarter”), 13,874 oz or 36% more than in the March 2012 Quarter (the “March Quarter”) and within production guidance of 50-55,000 oz for the Quarter;
> 
> • Cash costs reduced to US$676/oz, 7% lower than March Quarter cash costs and 2% lower than cost guidance;
> 
> • Total ore and waste movements (3.660Mbcm) ahead of targets;
> 
> • Head grade (1.6 g/t) and recovery (87.4%) ahead of targets;
> 
> • Hourly mill throughput rate (734tph) equates to annual throughput of 5.8Mt at 90% plant availability;
> 
> Development - SissinguÃ© Gold Project - CÃ´te d’Ivoire
> 
> • Negotiation of final fiscal terms for the SissinguÃ© Gold Project is on hold pending formal granting of the Exploitation Licence.
> 
> • Tendering process for early development works and detailed plant design work well advanced. Exploration – Ghana and CÃ´te d’Ivoire
> 
> • 63,025m of drilling completed including 13,447m in Ghana and 49,578m in CÃ´te d’Ivoire.
> 
> • Significant drill intercepts from multiple deposits.
> 
> Corporate
> 
> • Available cash balance of A$105.5M plus 761 oz of gold on hand at 30 June 2012.
> 
> • Debt reduced to US$63M and associated hedging reduced to 190,000 oz at US$1,256/oz.


----------



## shag

kennas said:


> They just keep kicking goals this mob. Everything on schedule, meeting targets, making a killing at these gold prices. Shame about the hedging but a necessity. Will be nice once they pay that off, although they'll have to do the same for SissinguÃ© I suppose. If the politics in W Africa smooth out and they don't decide to lift the tax rates too much as threatened then PRU is looking like a long term very good mid tier play. Until they get taken over.
> 
> June activity report out a couple of days ago:




yes will be rolling in it once the hedge is off in a year or so
its a shame they couldnt roll the hedge to the next mine, tho i know litttle of hedging. assume its just an insurance policy to appease the banks.
must be slighly cheaper to build these mines now the non gold boom is slightly deheated.


----------



## prawn_86

Maiden profit of 50m reported today. More production coming online in 2013 and expecting to pay dividend in 2014

One of the few to successfully transition from explorer to profitable producer, in any commodity


----------



## Sean K

prawn_86 said:


> Maiden profit of 50m reported today. More production coming online in 2013 and expecting to pay dividend in 2014
> 
> One of the few to successfully transition from explorer to profitable producer, in any commodity



Yep, pretty impressive effort really. 

I think the stock's discounted at the moment due to Ivory Coast troubles and the probably extended delay in Sissingue getting up.


----------



## JTLP

prawn_86 said:


> Maiden profit of 50m reported today. More production coming online in 2013 and expecting to pay dividend in 2014
> 
> One of the few to successfully transition from explorer to profitable producer, in any commodity




Spewing I missed out on this one back when it was a dollar! JMan (What happened to that guy - was a very informative poster) and I used to discuss this.

Can't believe they are expecting to pay a dividend in 2014 and bloody AQG can't nail anything


----------



## jancha

prawn_86 said:


> Maiden profit of 50m reported today. More production coming online in 2013 and expecting to pay dividend in 2014
> 
> One of the few to successfully transition from explorer to profitable producer, in any commodity




Interesting with POG in relationship to PRUs current price ($2.56)
 As with most other Gold stocks if POG goes down so does the sp which is understandable. 
However the POG has fallen in the past week 3-4% and yet PRUs sp has fallen something like 10%.
 Yet back in June when the POG was in the low 1600s PRUs sp was $2.80.
Question is why should it's share price be 10% less now than when it was then when the POG was 1600?
 As quoted above a sucessfull producer so one would assume that the drop is only due to the fall in Gold Price.
Please no Boogos need reply.


----------



## jancha

PRUs recent quarterly profit and loss shows a net profit for the first time since being in production and yet its sp continues to decline. ($2.48 down from $2.80 in 2 weeks)  POG is still over 1700 an oz! 
Interested to know what others thoughts are on this and if the major lawsuit in Africa over miners with Silicosis would have anything to do with it. I think the claim is only against Anglo Gold but dont know if this is affecting other mining companys in Africa as well. Thoughts on this?


----------



## jancha

jancha said:


> PRUs recent quarterly profit and loss shows a net profit for the first time since being in production and yet its sp continues to decline. ($2.48 down from $2.80 in 2 weeks)  POG is still over 1700 an oz!
> Interested to know what others thoughts are on this and if the major lawsuit in Africa over miners with Silicosis would have anything to do with it. I think the claim is only against Anglo Gold but dont know if this is affecting other mining companys in Africa as well. Thoughts on this?




In answer to my own question: Gold was over $1700. Big drop over night saw it fall to $1678 but I think the African Goverment might have something to do with PRUs sp.
Perseus Mining has continued to prosper in the notoriously risky West African sector, passing the 12-month mark since it started production at its gold mine in Ghana.
The miner's latest production result showed gold production of 52,610 ounces for the September quarter, in line with the June quarter but four per cent under its forecast production range.

It blamed slightly lower grades while it faced mechanical problems with its primary crusher during the September quarter at its flagship Edikan mine in Ghana.

Perseus' shares were one cent lower at $2.76 on Tuesday.

The miner is an ASX100 company - with its market capitalisation climbing above $1.83 billion in September last year although its stock price has fallen 31 per cent since then.

It said on Tuesday that sales for the September quarter were 4.7 per cent down on the previous quarter, at 50,785 ounces, on a 2.7 per cent weaker gold price at $US1,463 a fine ounce.

Offsetting the lower numbers were lower cash costs of $US475 an ounce, 30 per cent lower than the previous quarter and 17 per cent lower than guidance, which it attributed to an accounting adjustment.

Perseus has been in production since August 2011.

Since then other West African gold explorers have struggled to bring projects into production as global economic uncertainty and political unrest in Africa has made investors more risk averse.

Perseus has put its second potential mine, the Sissingue gold project in Ivory Coast bordering Ghana, on hold because of the possibility of the government introducing a profit-sharing arrangement.

In Ghana, the government increased the corporate tax rate this year from 25 per cent to 35 per cent and is proposing an additional 10 per cent windfall profits tax.


----------



## jancha

This also is a worry: I find nine times out of ten when an analyst puts in a strong recommended buy for a company in this case PRU the share price usually heads in the opposite direction!



Equities researchers at Fraser Mackenzie began coverage on shares of Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) in a report issued on Friday. The firm set a “strong-buy” rating and a $3.40 (3 AUD) price target on the stock.

Perseus Mining Limited traded down 1.59% on Friday, hitting A$2.480. Perseus Mining Limited has a 1-year low of A$2.120 and a 1-year high of A$3.660. The company has a market cap of A$1.136 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.00.

Separately, analysts at Dundee Securities raised their price target on shares of Perseus Mining Limited from $4.00 to $4.40 in a research note to investors on Wednesday, October 3rd. They now have a “buy” rating on the stock.

Perseus Mining Limited (Perseus) is an Australia-based company. The Company is engaged in the mineral exploration, gold project evaluation and development, mine operations and the sale of gold in the Republics of Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, in West Africa.


----------



## Sean K

Some really good points jancha. The tax issues and profit sharing may be the key.


----------



## jancha

kennas said:


> Some really good points jancha. The tax issues and profit sharing may be the key.




Noted PRU had a dramatic jump as with a few other Gold Companies after the US election announced Obama as president. Gold stocks were only slightly up prior to the announcement with the POG up $30+ over night but when the results were announced they jumped significantly.
Why would a change in government have any dramatic effect on the POG and stocks similar to PRU RED NCM ect.?
IMO Judging by the close today Gold Stocks should continue to head north in trade tomorrow.


----------



## Sean K

jancha said:


> Why would a change in government have any dramatic effect on the POG and stocks similar to PRU RED NCM ect.?



QE3 is on the cards. Printing money is good for POG. Romney wasn't pro-printing.


----------



## jancha

kennas said:


> QE3 is on the cards. Printing money is good for POG. Romney wasn't pro-printing.




Point taken but QE3 is already in place..Just splashing out more money when needed.


----------



## Sean K

jancha said:


> Point taken but QE3 is already in place..Just splashing out more money when needed.



I read somewhere that there was potential for another one off massive expansion, not the $40b or so a month currently being trickled in. Maybe that's not a chance. 

I just finished a google on 'ghana mining tax' and I think it's pretty clear why PRU have been held back over the past year or so. As gold has kept steady and PRU have delivered the Ghananan Gov have been hatching plans to increase taxes. How far will they go? No wonder punters like AZM are in the dog house.


----------



## jancha

kennas said:


> I read somewhere that there was potential for another one off massive expansion, not the $40b or so a month currently being trickled in. Maybe that's not a chance.
> 
> I just finished a google on 'ghana mining tax' and I think it's pretty clear why PRU have been held back over the past year or so. As gold has kept steady and PRU have delivered the Ghananan Gov have been hatching plans to increase taxes. How far will they go? No wonder punters like AZM are in the dog house.




  PRU had a reduced value of 9% back in 2011 and quoted at $5 per share with the tax rate of 35% in mind. That was back then. They not only seem to have been held back now but have dropped in value given the gold ratio ect. 
 Government was also talking about a 10% windfall tax back then but atm just talk. There has to be a balance as Ghana dont want to discourage mining companies from developing there as their econonmy is solely about mining so i dont think they can afford to be too greedy. Also the article about 10,000 chinese mining illegally causing unrest wouldn't be helping the situation. ( two mining deaths reported.... not the kind that happen by accident)
Anyway looking at PRUs current sp of $2.43. Dipping slightly today whilst others are making gains and down 15% in just over a month. So i'm wonder if there is another issue..I noticed that at the AGM Rhett Brans was re elected as Executive Director 162mil for and 147mil against. Very close call. Maybe that may have something to do with the decline? He cant be to popular. Maybe share holders getting out?
 PRUs latest quarterly report they were only down 4% in forecasted production so you wouldn't even consider that as a factor. The report look quite good in fact.


----------



## Sean K

PRU had a pretty forgetful 2012 with it being topped off with their first real production issues.



> 2 January 2013
> 
> Edikan Gold Mine Production Update
> 
> Gold production at Perseus Mining Limited’s (ASX/TSX: PRU) Edikan Gold Mine in Ghana is now estimated to be 49,000 ounces for the December 2012 Quarter. The lower end of the revised production guidance announced on 23 November 2012 for this quarter was 58,500 ounces.
> The production shortfall resulted, principally, from low crusher output from the time of the November guidance until the planned December maintenance shutdown, followed by a much longer than expected shutdown of eight days in December for the liner change and remedial work. The production shortfall was exacerbated by a shortage of crushed material on the coarse ore stockpile to feed the mill during the crusher shutdown and lower recoveries largely attributable to milling a higher proportion of oxide ore to compensate for the lack of crushed primary ore.
> After the crusher recommenced operations on 21 December it crushed 162,193t in the first 149 operating hours at a near record rate of 1,088t/hr, excluding additional oxide feed of 148 dtph.
> The Company will provide a detailed update on the Edikan primary crusher and mill performance with the release of the quarterly operating results in mid-January after all production and maintenance reports have been received and reviewed.




Halved in value since peak of $4 at the gold peak in Sep 11. Since then though, POG has gone down 10-15%, while PRU nearly 50%. 

NCM has halved as well I suppose but has more direct company related issues than PRU. Unless Ivory Coast is the issue. The potential 'Extra Profits' tax probably creates enough uncertainty to kill easy finance. Hm, maybe that's it. 

Not sure if OPEX has been an issue. GCC around $800 maybe a negative. Their 'adjusted' costs plus royalties, or ACC+R has been $830, 782, and 569. They were quoting 'C1 Cash Costs/oz' of between $535 and $580 in mid 2011 presentations I think so that doesn't look too good either.

Dropping through $2.25 looks ugly. If it regains that level quickly and bounces well that would be a positive sign. Otherwise, ouch. Maybe $2.00 in early 2010 will support.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Not sure if OPEX has been an issue. GCC around $800 maybe a negative. Their 'adjusted' costs plus royalties, or ACC+R has been $830, 782, and 569. They were quoting 'C1 Cash Costs/oz' of between $535 and $580 in mid 2011 presentations I think so that doesn't look too good either.
> 
> Dropping through $2.25 looks ugly. If it regains that level quickly and bounces well that would be a positive sign. Otherwise, ouch. Maybe $2.00 in early 2010 will support.
> 
> View attachment 50350



Certainly looks like failing at the $2 support level. Crashing into the low $1.80s today after a bad quarterly and the CEO being sacked. I thought the real problems were out of his hands actually. The tax issues for Ivory Coast seem to be the real problem. Although, I do note, they have come out with another measure for OPEX at Edikan. This one is called 'Total site cash costs'. I thought this must have been GCC mentioned above, but it's not. This comes in at $1060 for Dec 'actuals' and was $1027 for Sep 'actuals'. Why do they keep twisting around the OPEX definition and giving us different numbers?  By this definition it looks pretty crappy, that's for sure. 

Is it getting canned because Trengela/Siss is close to Mali? 

It's getting cheaper and cheaper by the day. Woof.


----------



## Calliope

Now might be the time to get back into PRU. Macquarie think that their crusher problems will soon be over.



> Action and recommendation
>  Outperform. While the ongoing disruptions at Edikan have continued to weigh
> on the stock, we believe that their impact on both FY13 and FY14 earnings
> are baked into the current share price. As the root of the problem appears to
> have finally been identified, the eventual resolution of the crusher to its full
> nameplate capacity will help to drive a significantly improving production profile.
>  As Perseus demonstrates improving production over the course of 2H 2013,
> we believe that there will be a closing of the current P/NPV discount that it
> trades at relative to its peers.


----------



## JTLP

Unfortunately gold is on the nose so you're probably best waiting out...perhaps this is the end for gold?


----------



## namrog

If PRU doesn't pull up around $1-50, as this is the next serious level of support then all bets are off..

Will be looking for signs of a reversal around then..!


----------



## brerwallabi

namrog said:


> If PRU doesn't pull up around $1-50, as this is the next serious level of support then all bets are off..
> 
> Will be looking for signs of a reversal around then..!




Near enough every gold stock is being slaughtered PRU is no different. Think of the money we will will make when it turns around when the gold price takes off again.
Its a hard one to say when to get back in.
Gee the banks are doing well its hard one to say when to get out.


----------



## Sean K

I'm not sure if this cycle in gold is just a correction in the longer term bull, or it's peaked. Maybe once another stimulus comes in and we start actually getting real inflation? Maybe a real war?


----------



## shag

Calliope said:


> Now might be the time to get back into PRU. Macquarie think that their crusher problems will soon be over.




dont mac bank hold a wack of stock, or did they sell out?
im concerned they have monkeys running the plant, and still insitu, like in report the lubes wernt even being maintained correctly.
like its an off the shelf plant. maybe a mech enger could state how hard it is to install and maintain, run too i guess.
these things are usually way overdesigned and installed.

i realise all rock types have different characteristics but it sounded severely stuffed n abused.
maybe a few incentives are required, like not throwing u in the crusher one night, if u do yr job....


----------



## shag

kennas said:


> I'm not sure if this cycle in gold is just a correction in the longer term bull, or it's peaked. Maybe once another stimulus comes in and we start actually getting real inflation? Maybe a real war?




a small war with the dirty japs wouldnt go amiss for labour, down south. to me its their only choice for victory.
would b interesting re alliances n reinvigorate the industrial sectors here.
any war is going to enhance nationalism though, so further endanger these non australian mines, imo.


----------



## monaroman76

namrog said:


> If PRU doesn't pull up around $1-50, as this is the next serious level of support then all bets are off..
> 
> Will be looking for signs of a reversal around then..!




Stock price rebounded off the 1.50 support. Will it be tested again? Or could this be the reversal?


----------



## shag

monaroman76 said:


> Stock price rebounded off the 1.50 support. Will it be tested again? Or could this be the reversal?



to me its never respected boundaries much, with these fellas im very wary that we are the mushrooms.
it seems cheap unless plant is still problematic etc, or war is arriving, or tax shifting etc. 
u need a mate on the ground imo.

still i hold like a sucker or mushroom.

is it legal to subcontract say the mill operator to supply general info? in a build n use, often systemic and root problems are only know by the guys onsite, till it all goes totally bung. ive seen plenty of attempted coverups.

kennas loves travel so maybe he could transform into a plant operator for a month.


----------



## Sean K

This sounds promising.



> Comments from Perseus’s Managing Director, Jeff Quartermaine
> 
> “The remediation of the crusher at Edikan has occurred as planned and Perseus is now looking forward to putting the technical challenges of late 2012 behind us and returning to the gold production levels that we know the Edikan Gold Mine is capable of delivering. Production of nearly 36,500 ounces of gold in the March 2013 Quarter to date, in spite of the challenges presented by the crusher is encouraging and has provided a solid start towards achieving production guidance for the first half of this calendar year.
> 
> This achievement is largely the result of hard work by our employees at Edikan and the technicians from FL Smidth, all of whom have very pleasingly risen to the challenge of getting production back on track as soon as possible.”




Now, if Ivory Coast can be sorted out, you may have seen the end of the downward spiral.


----------



## shag

yes it seems as if they have gone thru a process of eng tough love.
hopefully they learn from the seemingly extreme errors and as well use this period to set up processes to run the mills etc v v efficiently, sans large downtimes
seems uneccessary tho imo, getting retaught by the real engineers/technicians. 

at least next plants should be done well. for all we know, the boom then meant some gear was not built as well as usual too re manufacturers. 
only a bill of market cap. lost or so for the lessions etc







kennas said:


> This sounds promising.
> 
> 
> 
> Now, if Ivory Coast can be sorted out, you may have seen the end of the downward spiral.


----------



## mr. jeff

as with some of the goldies, PRU is showing a change of trend. These lows have not been seen since 2011 and might offer a good entry point if POG stays strong. No time for chart sorry, someone else might add if they can?


----------



## JTLP

mr. jeff said:


> as with some of the goldies, PRU is showing a change of trend. These lows have not been seen since 2011 and might offer a good entry point if POG stays strong. No time for chart sorry, someone else might add if they can?





Can't add a chart but I can add that last time I watched PRU and OGC run from about $1 and $0.60 to their respective highs!

Do I feel confident in a POG uptick and PRU cruising along? As Kennas noted - they seem to have fixed some of their problems - if they can do it all and keep cash costs at a minimum it would look VERY interesting. Just hope politics in the lovely African continent can be kept in check. POG - the world is chugging along ok atm - perhaps on weakness I will buy.


----------



## shag

with the europe shambles again, ie the blatant weath grab, who would hold cash. u would think the pog would go thru the roof, along with dwindling supplies n asian buying. wouldnt one be scrambling to buy precious metals esp. au, and stash it in the garden or dog kennel.

seems they flogged the crusher to death in the first yr n ignored warning signs, upkeep etc, for reasons one can only assume.
its a shame theres not a mechanical engineer or even a skilled technician on this site to comment.

a very tough lesson for all, but hopefully its behind them.


----------



## JTLP

You'd have to feel that those rumours of PRU being a takeover target are still in the mix - they're down at $1.50 today (MC of $760M...not long ago it was $1.5B!)

As I said last time - when this thing turns it turns pretty quickly...will be interesting to watch. I know the US have said that they'd need to ease their easing program in the future...but I really can't see it happening


----------



## Calliope

I think PRU has been over-sold as a result of falling gold price.



> Clarus Securities released an updated research report on Perseus this week. Analyst Nana Sangmuah wrote, “We remain encouraged by PRU’s growth potential with Edikan now turning the corner and a fiscal stability agreement at Tengrela imminent. Production at Tengrela is expected to deliver production growth of ~85% by 2015. We maintain our BUY rating and $3.20 per share price target.
> 
> “We remain encouraged that Edikan operations are on the mend with crusher availability at 89% in April from the 51% level recorded in January. Management is now focused on fine tuning plant metallurgical performance and maximising SAG mill throughput with a targeted rate of 8.0MMtpa plant capacity expected to be reached by mid-year. *We are modeling production of 183koz for the remainder of the year at total cash costs of US$965/oz. *However, attainment of the targeted plant capacity of 8.0MMtpa by mid-year could provide upside to our estimates.”


----------



## Sean K

It's only oversold if POG recovers. Will it? All this money printing was supposed to destroy the USD and support POG. It hasn't. 



Yet.


----------



## mr. jeff

kennas said:


> It's only oversold if POG recovers. Will it? All this money printing was supposed to destroy the USD and support POG. It hasn't.
> 
> 
> 
> Yet.




Yes very true. Serious things were supposed to happen and haven't eventuated at all. this leaves a lot of people;

1) Cyring conspiracy etc.
2) Suggesting the market is distorted phys. vs. elect.
3) Buying stocks that are "way undervalued".

No advice permitted, but POG suggests that these falls are in line with the market movement at the moment and people are trying to get clear of exposure to gold miners at this time. PRU is of course a decent miner worth watching for a change of trend though...

Of course things can change quickly, but with markets looking like finding a recovery and a bit less volatility, then maybe gold has seen its run for a while.


----------



## JTLP

PRU at $0.86 now. Wow. Never thought we'd see it back down here again.

Everything hinges on the Fed tonight. Will they or won't they support ongoing stimulus?
IMO - I think they will start to wind it back with scope to increase at the first signs of weakness. Indicators look good and they can't continue on this unsustainable trajectory forever.


----------



## Sean K

I really did think, on the balance of things and market commentary by respected economic analysts, that the continued stimulus would result in massive inflation, total debasement of the USD, and flight to perceived 'safe havens'. The perception of this forced the POG to go hyperbolic for some time. Massive rises, year after year. There are quite a number of gold bulls on ASF, most still here. Most of those probably think that this is a correction before the next leg up after the world financial system absolutely keels over after getting into so much debt that it is irrecoverable. Faber and Rogers are close to buying if not already I think. Maybe they lose their shirts...Personally, I've been out since 2009. Very happy right now.


----------



## mr. jeff

kennas said:


> I really did think, on the balance of things and market commentary by respected economic analysts, that the continued stimulus would result in massive inflation, total debasement of the USD, and flight to perceived 'safe havens'. The perception of this forced the POG to go hyperbolic for some time. Massive rises, year after year. There are quite a number of gold bulls on ASF, most still here. Most of those probably think that this is a correction before the next leg up after the world financial system absolutely keels over after getting into so much debt that it is irrecoverable. Faber and Rogers are close to buying if not already I think. Maybe they lose their shirts...Personally, I've been out since 2009. Very happy right now.




I persisted past the end of the run, but fortunately was able to extricate my positions and move on.
I agree with you that there seemingly was the case for gold to go a lot further than it did, however when you see the chart, as you say it went parabolic and that was as much as it could do. 

What happens next is hard to predict, but may of the drivers for POG are still there - money printing, incentives to drive each currency down by printing to devalue for debt reasons as well as competitive reasons between nations.

No point in attempting to predict the future.


----------



## jancha

mr. jeff said:


> I persisted past the end of the run, but fortunately was able to extricate my positions and move on.
> I agree with you that there seemingly was the case for gold to go a lot further than it did, however when you see the chart, as you say it went parabolic and that was as much as it could do.
> 
> What happens next is hard to predict, but may of the drivers for POG are still there - money printing, incentives to drive each currency down by printing to devalue for debt reasons as well as competitive reasons between nations.
> 
> No point in attempting to predict the future.




 Supply and demand would have to have bearing on how low Gold can go. The cost of producing Gold is becoming more and more expensive. For that reason and the demand for Gold I cant see it going down much lower otherwise who's going to mine it?


----------



## skc

That was some crazy price action today. Sure the market rebounded well from a weak start but PRU went from 63 to a high of 79. A range of 25% from the low. Had a signal to go long RPU as a pair but was too chicken to take the trade.... oh well.


----------



## Sean K

After the set back with cocking up the mill, negative political/tax issues, it's POG v Opex that's killing them. And the Hedge.

March quarterly:



> Total site cash cost for the Quarter of US$1,132/oz1 was 7% higher than December Quarter due to costs of crusher repairs and one-off costs
> 
> Production and cost guidance for six months ending 30 June 2013 of 105-125,000ozs of gold at an all-in cost of US$1,100/oz remains unchanged
> 
> Hedging commitment linked to debt financing reduced to 193,000oz at a weighted average price of US$1,389/oz




Obviously, if POG keeps going down and cash costs up, they are toast.


----------



## JTLP

I thought they were meant to be a super cheap producer? 

Doesn't look like a lot of meat left on the bone factoring in all those costs.


----------



## Sean K

JTLP said:


> I thought they were meant to be a super cheap producer?
> 
> Doesn't look like a lot of meat left on the bone factoring in all those costs.



I can't recall what the BFS OPEX figures were but surely less than that...

Looks extremely high for Africa. Maybe there's a lot of Expat salaries in there? 

Or, the costs of keeping a dodgy mill going...


----------



## JTLP

kennas said:


> I can't recall what the BFS OPEX figures were but surely less than that...
> 
> Looks extremely high for Africa. Maybe there's a lot of Expat salaries in there?
> 
> Or, the costs of keeping a dodgy mill going...




And naughty naughty.

Just told the market after close that things aren't all that rosy out at Edikan; mill problems etc and a lower gold output forecast and higher cost per oz than 1,100 .

This one is in an absolute pickle now...personally staying away as I don't think they'll make it now.


----------



## Sean K

JTLP said:


> And naughty naughty.
> 
> Just told the market after close that things aren't all that rosy out at Edikan; mill problems etc and a lower gold output forecast and higher cost per oz than 1,100 .
> 
> This one is in an absolute pickle now...personally staying away as I don't think they'll make it now.



They've just been crucified the past few months. It's got it's basis in the OPEX, contractor/mill issues, tax, and short term POG crumpled. Maybe a perfect storm. The way out short term can only be a POG recovery I think. Like significant bounce based on some 'fundamentals' like huge inflation numbers and USD tanking. Maybe they need Russia to start sending troops into Syria in support of Assad, that might be a nice POG supporter...


----------



## JTLP

kennas said:


> They've just been crucified the past few months. It's got it's basis in the OPEX, contractor/mill issues, tax, and short term POG crumpled. Maybe a perfect storm. The way out short term can only be a POG recovery I think. Like significant bounce based on some 'fundamentals' like huge inflation numbers and USD tanking. Maybe they need Russia to start sending troops into Syria in support of Assad, that might be a nice POG supporter...




They will need something to send the POG up and fast. Apart from the hedging they are really hanging on by a thread. I feel for holders; seems a bit misleading to give an update not long ago about costs circa $1,100 then come out and say in the past few weeks X has happened at Edikan and now its going to be more! 

Still; as I predicted - justly smashed down to 51.5 cents (-22%). They will have to put other projects on the backburner now in order to survive.

Does anybody have a P2P sheet with cash cost per oz?


----------



## Sean K

JTLP said:


> They will need something to send the POG up and fast. Apart from the hedging they are really hanging on by a thread. I feel for holders; seems a bit misleading to give an update not long ago about costs circa $1,100 then come out and say in the past few weeks X has happened at Edikan and now its going to be more!
> 
> Still; as I predicted - justly smashed down to 51.5 cents (-22%). They will have to put other projects on the backburner now in order to survive.
> 
> Does anybody have a P2P sheet with cash cost per oz?



They've been providing cash costs in their quarterly presentations but use a different term for it. And it's changed over time. Maybe a bit of smoke and mirror?

Must be close to a Dead Cat.


----------



## Sean K

Well we got a bit of a dead cat from late June but yesterday might have seen the cat it hit it's apex. Absolutely shocking time for those holding on to the gold story. Gee, I hope it turns around, although that will probably mean we're coming out of this economic mess. Or, this is just a break in the traffic...No idea.


----------



## skyQuake

She'll be right mate 

I am of the opinion that no US o/n leads = easy selling in AU.

Technicals wise its looks pretty good, filled gaps on downside, waiting to fill gaps on upside!


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Reckon it might put a few more cents on here.


----------



## Sean K

Gringotts Bank said:


> Reckon it might put a few more cents on here.



Chart looks like it's bottomed and broken up. On volume. Interesting. Has POG seen a bottom? ?


----------



## Calliope

It got away on me when I wasn't looking.


----------



## Sean K

Calliope said:


> It got away on me when I wasn't looking.



I'm just not convinced with a POG reversal.

But the world is still fvck*d.

Chart says bottom.

I'm vexed.


----------



## mr. jeff

high volume reversal may give you a chance to get in as the selling was strong yesterday - today will tell the tale on whether the move will be sustained but yesterday showed significant selling.


----------



## Sean K

Hooly dooly, POG has destroyed many investors if they were top heavy in the yellow metal believing that the 'printing-money-will-cause-gold-to-sky-rocket-scenario'. I was one of them but fortunately bailed due to life changing events. There are three expert commodity commentators who must be absolutely in massive rectal pain. Faber, Schiff and Rogers must be copping it. I think they are still calling hyper inflation. If not now, when? After it's being wound down? nope. The only way they could be right from here is if there's a significant WW and countries have to borrow to build up their armed forces. With nukes, I'm not sure if that will happen.  

And, the effect on PRU.


----------



## piggybank

Hi,

I don't know if it as been mentioned in another thread but this stock as risen over 40% in the past 2.4 weeks on increased volume.

This was their latest Investor Presentation last Wednesday - 20th.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PRU&E=ASX&N=760351


----------



## Porper

piggybank said:


> Hi,
> 
> I don't know if it as been mentioned in another thread but this stock as risen over 40% in the past 2.4 weeks on increased volume.
> 
> This was their latest Investor Presentation last Wednesday - 20th.
> 
> http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PRU&E=ASX&N=760351





Nice break out of the basing pattern. Measured move $0.90. Longer term the 50% - 61.8% zone (see chart) much higher is achievable....Gold price allowing obviously. A lot of the media are bearish Gold...I am bullish until the patterns say otherwise.

I hold PRU


----------



## greggles

Perseus Mining charging ahead today after reporting that in the quarter to 30 June 2018 it has produced a record quantity of gold from its two West African mines with gold production of 83,881 ounces, up 31% on the March 2018 quarter.






Today's announcement has propelled PRU out of its previous zone of consolidation between 42c and 45c and it is currently trading at 48c, up 10.34% on yesterday's close. It's now well positioned to take on the 50c mark, but I'll just keep an eye on it for now to see how the price action develops over the next few days.


----------



## peter2

I like PRU as a reversal opportunity. Price has made a base and has just broken higher. The volume indicator TMF has been rising for a while and is above zero, indicating accumulation. 

The weekly chart shows why this is a reversal as the trend is down.


----------



## Knobby22

Breaking out, bought in.


----------



## greggles

Knobby22 said:


> Breaking out, bought in.




PRU has had a good run since mid-last week, rising from around 45c to a high of 61c today. Volume for the last five trading sessions has been well above average.

There have been no announcements since 3 June. Any idea what might be going on?


----------



## aus_trader

greggles said:


> PRU has had a good run since mid-last week, rising from around 45c to a high of 61c today. Volume for the last five trading sessions has been well above average.
> 
> There have been no announcements since 3 June. Any idea what might be going on?
> 
> View attachment 95588



Gap up in Gold price I believe...





PRU was the leader of the pack, but have a look at the top performing stocks today % wise, all are Gold stocks ! A Golden day for Gold bugs:


----------



## greggles

aus_trader said:


> Gap up in Gold price I believe...




Yep, that'd be it. Talk about having a Homer Simpson "D'oh!" moment. I saw the share price movement, checked the announcements and posted without even thinking about the gold price. 

Not sure my brain is firing on all cylinders today.


----------



## Sean K

I was well into PRU years ago and rode it for a while. Lucky to escape it falling completely off the perch in 2011. Something to do with politics in East Africa at the time I think. Could it all be resolved and it's breaking up. Or, just a gold price blip?


----------



## aus_trader

kennas said:


> I was well into PRU years ago and rode it for a while. Lucky to escape it falling completely off the perch in 2011. Something to do with politics in East Africa at the time I think. Could it all be resolved and it's breaking up. Or, just a gold price blip?
> View attachment 95610



Strewth, good timing in 2011. Not sure if it could multiply itself many times over to get back up to those levels but anything is possible with the leverage of a rising Gold price if sustained into the future...


----------



## Trav.

I jumped in on this one last week. SP has broken $0.60 again and hopefully PRU can continue to leverage of gold's good run.


----------



## Sean K

Trav. said:


> I jumped in on this one last week. SP has broken $0.60 again



Interesting set up Trav. Bit of a flag forming up on the yearly chart, the base at 44c. A break through 64c would be interesting.


----------



## Trav.

kennas said:


> Interesting set up Trav.




Yes @kennas I just looked again at my post and I can see that you are being kind to my dodgy sketch. 

The BO at 50c would have ideal but I agree the next BO at 64/65c will be interesting.

Today's action


----------



## Trav.

Good week for PRU with SP closing @ 65.5c and a quick look at the chart shows that prices haven't been at this level since Nov 2016.

Looking for + 70c.... lets see what happens


----------



## aus_trader

Trav. said:


> Good week for PRU with SP closing @ 65.5c and a quick look at the chart shows that prices haven't been at this level since Nov 2016.
> 
> Looking for + 70c.... lets see what happens
> 
> View attachment 96147



Looks good at the moment. A breakout above 70c could also be interesting...


----------



## Sean K

aus_trader said:


> Looks good at the moment. A breakout above 70c could also be interesting...



Getting close to that 70c breakout zone. Still held to the POG probably but they have lots of cash, about to start a new mine and have survived the W Africa shenanigans. Forecasting 260-300 oz at $800-975 costs next FY. Gold at $1400, but they're locked in to under $1300 I think. So, they're making $400ish an ounce. A break through 70c and for that to be tested and supported may mean a new era.


----------



## aus_trader

PRU is among the top performers on the ASX today along with his Gold buddies...


----------



## barney

aus_trader said:


> PRU is among the top performers on the ASX




Great Chart …… You still in @Trav.   Good pickup!


----------



## Trav.

barney said:


> Great Chart …… You still in @Trav.   Good pickup!



Thanks mate. Yes I am still in and enjoying the ride, target reached so will start to tighten up trailing stop.


----------



## aus_trader

I am still holding as well since it looks like clearing the 70c resistance barrier. Details about my purchase are in Speculative Stock Portfolio.


----------



## barney

Trav. said:


> Thanks mate. Yes I am still in and enjoying the ride





aus_trader said:


> I am still holding as well




Its nice when a plan comes together  Well done.


----------



## Rosscoe62

Just replying for the competition thread in which I nominated this company on top for 2020.
Reasons:-
1. I believe the bull market that has been pinging for a very long time will correct this year with global uncertainty & events.
2. Gold has been very bullish of late. Following TA personally I secured PRU when it broke through the 70c barrier and continue to hold. Currently $1.11 and very likely to accelerate in coming months.
3. I’m expecting the gold price to rocket in 2020, in fact US $1600 is not out of the question.
4. Follow Phil Anderson’s 18.6 year real estate cycle, which I follow very closely & you’ll see we are nearing a correction some time in 2020.


----------



## Trav.

After playing with a few different systems which did not pick up PRU and it's lovely run over the last 4 months PRU has come to my attention again and I cannot fault the chart only myself for not riding this up.

Lovely set of Higher Lows and break outs along the way. Maybe going for another little run


----------



## barney

Haven't looked at this for a while … been a great run.

I see Van-Eck associates doubled their stake just before Xmas to around 139 million shares (11%) Fair vote of confidence!  West Africa maybe adds a question mark but the chart has been happy till now.


----------



## aus_trader

Absolutely guys, this has sneaked past me as well. I rode part of the trend as documented in the spec portfolio.

You are right barney, there is risk in West Africa with mining and exploration plays but there seems to be appetite for this risk as well as PRU share price shows. I also like a smaller Gold play that is building it's mining operation as we speak in the West African region called West African Resources Ltd (WAF).

If I am after a same size largish cap play but without the West African consideration, it'll probably be Gold Road Resources Ltd (GOR) which is an Australian based Gold play which is also going into production.


----------



## Trav.

Well I entered this week and of course the SP broke out of my ascending triangle but finished strong today to give me some confidence for next week. 

Timing entries is something that I need to work on but when it broke $1.175 I thought here we go but nope back down to $1.08. Still working on tying price and volume into my scans and thought patterns.


----------



## aus_trader

Trav. said:


> Well I entered this week and of course the SP broke out of my ascending triangle but finished strong today to give me some confidence for next week.
> 
> Timing entries is something that I need to work on but when it broke $1.175 I thought here we go but nope back down to $1.08. Still working on tying price and volume into my scans and thought patterns.
> 
> View attachment 100166




Certainly a good day for Gold stocks Trav.. 3 of the Top Stock Gainers today have been Gold stocks including the Aussie Gold stock that I mentioned above as well as the Rare Earth/Gold play in spec portfolio.


----------



## Trav.

@aus_trader yes definitely looks like a good sector to focus on as there are quite a few winners here.

POG heading up again


----------



## Trav.

PRU back on track after it wandering outside my dotted line....surely these stocks should know better 

3 x green bars which puts me in the green as well so happy days


----------



## Trav.

Update on this trade - PRU had a nice day today on the back of the gold price which saw the price break though and close above recent resistance @ $1.21 so happy about that.

High Volume day and trend indicators positive (ADX & MACD)


----------



## noirua

*Perseus Mining gold operations continue to deliver strong cash flows*
27 April 2020
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com....inue-to-deliver-strong-cash-flows-918231.html
Significant progress has been made on all fronts at the Yaouré Gold Mine development project in Côte d’Ivoire


----------



## Telamelo

Anyone still following PRU ?  as Quarterly due out tomorrow...


----------



## divs4ever

not me , i haven't looked at it for years , 

 but maybe the quarterly will inspire me to research it 

 i have been buying/adding gold stocks in recent months 

 CHEERS


----------



## aus_trader

> Anyone still following PRU ? as Quarterly due out tomorrow...





divs4ever said:


> not me , i haven't looked at it for years ,
> 
> but maybe the quarterly will inspire me to research it
> 
> i have been buying/adding gold stocks in recent months
> 
> CHEERS



As you know I've sold out of PRU quite a while back in the spec portfolio and since have moved onto other Goldies. PRU was sold last time for a tidy profit in the spec portfolio:





Currently own ALK that's doing well and a small amount of FFX having sold half the position of FFX for a profit recently in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> Anyone still following PRU ?  as Quarterly due out tomorrow...




Yep. Held quite a chunk in the late naughties but sold a decade ago. If we're still in a secular bull run should keep going ok. I'm not in touch with local politics at the moment so being cautious about WA.


----------



## divs4ever

OK .. had a BRIEF look at PRU , but not the report 

 why i have avoided it in the past  

1. it operates in Africa ( i normally avoid Africa and PNG  on perceived increased political risk 

2. it hasn't paid a div.  ( but according to Morningstar  MIGHT in 2022 )

 i am trying to build a retirement fund  so yes divs are very important to me  , but occasionally i do go for something i think can grow 
 the last one was YFZ  which is sadly under take-over threat , but happily will come close to doubling my investment if the take-over completes 

 a VERY quick look at the PRU quarterly 

 things that caught my eye  , higher costs on higher production , however that may be temporary  , and they are still actively exploring so MIGHT need to save that cash for future development 

 will look in depth much later tonight ( unless the share price plunges dramatically  , which i think won't happen today  , with  the virus hysteria who knows what happens tomorrow )


----------



## Telamelo

kennas said:


> Yep. Held quite a chunk on the late naughties but sold a decade ago. If we're still in a secular bull run should keep going ok. I'm not in touch with local politics at the moment so being cautious about WA.



Excellent June quarterly out this morning.. PRU added another US$50M+ to their bottom line 

$2+ share price it seems from here imo given their increasing Gold output/margins etc. to come imo


----------



## Beaches

PRU has been a consistent performer with a solid record of execution by management.  Production has been steadily increasing with 191,000 oz produced in the recent half year at an AISC of US$1,047. The company has an ultimate goal of reaching 500,000 oz/year. Given the increasing production and exploration success, the 500,000 seems achievable in the medium term.

The one area of criticism is their hedging program. This could have been handled better and hopefully as debt is reduced (currently net $100mil) they can improve this area of weakness.
_Perseus held gold forward sales contracts for 210,313 ounces of gold at a weighted average sales  price  of  US$1,564  per  ounce.  These  hedges  are  designated  for  delivery  progressively  over  the  period  up  to  30 September  2022.  Perseus  also  held  spot  deferred  sales  contracts  for  a  further  90,441  ounces  of  gold  at  a  weighted average sales price of US$1,668 per ounce. Combining both sets of sales contracts, Perseus’s total hedged position at the end of the quarter was 300,754 ounces at a weighted average sales price of US$1,595 per ounce._​
Often under appreciated by the market, the frequent dips in price under $1.20 have undervalued the company and have proved good entry points for either a trade or investment. Holding


----------



## brerwallabi

Beaches said:


> PRU has been a consistent performer with a solid record of execution by management.  Production has been steadily increasing with 191,000 oz produced in the recent half year at an AISC of US$1,047. The company has an ultimate goal of reaching 500,000 oz/year. Given the increasing production and exploration success, the 500,000 seems achievable in the medium term.
> 
> The one area of criticism is their hedging program. This could have been handled better and hopefully as debt is reduced (currently net $100mil) they can improve this area of weakness.
> _Perseus held gold forward sales contracts for 210,313 ounces of gold at a weighted average sales  price  of  US$1,564  per  ounce.  These  hedges  are  designated  for  delivery  progressively  over  the  period  up  to  30 September  2022.  Perseus  also  held  spot  deferred  sales  contracts  for  a  further  90,441  ounces  of  gold  at  a  weighted average sales price of US$1,668 per ounce. Combining both sets of sales contracts, Perseus’s total hedged position at the end of the quarter was 300,754 ounces at a weighted average sales price of US$1,595 per ounce._​
> Often under appreciated by the market, the frequent dips in price under $1.20 have undervalued the company and have proved good entry points for either a trade or investment.



Held this many moons ago a spectacular rise followed by a similar decline.
Never made money from it.
Now I won’t even consider it, management at the time disappointed.
On my avoid list along with OGC another disappointing gold company that promised the earth but could never really deliver.
Good luck if you back PRU maybe this time it might deliver????


----------



## Sean K

Beaches said:


> The one area of criticism is their hedging program. This could have been handled better and hopefully as debt is reduced (currently net $100mil) they can improve this area of weakness.
> _Perseus held gold forward sales contracts for 210,313 ounces of gold at a weighted average sales  price  of  US$1,564  per  ounce.  These  hedges  are  designated  for  delivery  progressively  over  the  period  up  to  30 September  2022.  Perseus  also  held  spot  deferred  sales  contracts  for  a  further  90,441  ounces  of  gold  at  a  weighted average sales price of US$1,668 per ounce. Combining both sets of sales contracts, Perseus’s total hedged position at the end of the quarter was 300,754 ounces at a weighted average sales price of US$1,595 per ounce._​




Nasty hedging. I can only guess that was part of getting debt to fund capex at some point. 

I think Sissingue is going to run out gold in a few years that needs to be replaced, so they're going to have to have some good exploration success or bolt something on to get to and maintain 500k oz pa. Buying Tietto might fix that.


----------



## Beaches

brerwallabi said:


> Held this many moons ago a spectacular rise followed by a similar decline.
> Never made money from it.
> Now I won’t even consider it, management at the time disappointed.
> On my avoid list along with OGC another disappointing gold company that promised the earth but could never really deliver.
> Good luck if you back PRU maybe this time it might deliver????



Most miners have teething problems in their early years, it's not unusual. However, PRU has hardly put a foot wrong in the last 5 years. 
In 2016 they had 1 mine producing around 160,000oz/year. They now have 3 mines that are producing 380,000oz/year with a target of 500,000oz next year. Their current AISC is very much the same as it was 5 years ago. 
I would be very happy if all the goldies I'm holding could execute that well.


----------



## brerwallabi

Beaches said:


> I would be very happy if all the goldies I'm holding could execute that well.



I am holding ORA, NML, EMR, ENR all out of favour but willing to wait.
I have always held or traded gold stocks PRU was included, now I prefer others.
Good luck with it.


----------



## Telamelo

Perseus gives gold medal performance
					

Yaoure's first full quarter sets pace for record-smashing year




					www.miningnews.net


----------



## divs4ever

a tiny gotcha  , just remember he is talking in $US

 on a highly profitable mine no big thing  but on a normally marginal mine like MML a huge trap

 cheers


----------



## aus_trader

divs4ever said:


> a tiny gotcha  , just remember he is talking in $US
> 
> on a highly profitable mine no big thing  but on a normally marginal mine like MML a huge trap
> 
> cheers



Good point, exchange rate movements could really affect the profit margins when you are extracting and milling the stuff in Au$ or some African currency (how about wheel barrow loads of Zimbabwe money to pay for each mining shift), and selling the end product (Oz of Gold) in US$...












and pays for...


----------



## Telamelo

Nice move PRU this morning with sp @ $1.62 already  











Still think we'll see $2+ before end of this year imo

P.S. Hope my other gold/silver spec play MTH fires up also (finger's crossed).


----------



## aus_trader

All the Goldies are up a bit today   

PRU has bucked the trend and gone up while most Gold stocks especially Aussie ones (eg. ALK held in spec portfolio) have been sliding south lately...


----------



## Sean K

aus_trader said:


> All the Goldies are up a bit today
> 
> PRU has bucked the trend and gone up while most Gold stocks especially Aussie ones (eg. ALK held in spec portfolio) have been sliding south lately...




I think everyone is holding their breath for the Boda results for ALK.


----------



## aus_trader

kennas said:


> I think everyone is holding their breath for the Boda results for ALK.



Boda is adding Oz's to ALK inventory and it's one of the larger discoveries, which are rare these days.


----------



## Sean K

Telamelo said:


> Nice move PRU this morning with sp @ $1.62 already
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Still think we'll see $2+ before end of this year imo




Certainly heading in that direction since breaking that downward trend. I think that was along with quite a few goldies. $1.60-65 looks like a hurdle.


----------



## aus_trader

Gold is having a gap-up day, hence seeing green on all the Gold stocks on the asx.





Hope that continues...

Also there is another tail wind that could help local producers who produce the stuff in AUD and sell in USD...


----------



## Sean K

PRU MC is about $1.9b and they're digging up 300K ounces ramping to 500K - maybe. They were producing 250K oz au from 2018-20. So, compare that to a TIE, or an ORR or a PDI that will be digging up around 200-250K ounces and their MCs are $300-400m. (Also WAF $1.3b and producing 280K+.) While TIE has the finance sorted, and the others have a lot of time and financing to get into production, there's something missing here. Maybe PRU is just de-risked because it's been going for a while and multi asset. Perhaps Yaoure coming on line and doing well adds good value. 

There was a great looking set up late last year when POG looked like it had broken up and this was following the trend. That C&H was looking very tasty. Didn't buy it as I was focussed on juniors, and on the above comparisons thought this was overpriced.

My interest here is more on M&A action between the WA juniors and this and WAF. Would make some sense for PRU or WAF to buy out one of the others to add to the inventory and create scale. TIE is being steadily de-risked with the infill drilling and looks like a no-brainer to me. Unless the deposit is actually crap.


----------



## mullokintyre

Overnight, PRU released some nice drilling results showing gold at depth below the current open pit at  Yaoure.
May well go for a run today.
My average buy in price is 1.565, so may even be in the black.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Overnight, PRU released some nice drilling results showing gold at depth below the current open pit at  Yaoure.
> May well go for a run today.
> My average buy in price is 1.565, so may even be in the black.
> Mick




Mostly infill drilling.There were some interesting exploration results out yesterday near Edikan. Working towards being a 500k oz producer. I wonder what their next move is. Rely on exploration success, a merger of equals or buy a junior??


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> Mostly infill drilling.There were some interesting exploration results out yesterday near Edikan. Working towards being a 500k oz producer. I wonder what their next move is. Rely on exploration success, a merger of equals or buy a junior??



As a holder of Tie, would be more than happy for one of the others to take them out!.
mick


----------



## mullokintyre

Not a bad quarterly out for PRU.
Gold production up 14%  compared to same quarter 2021.
Weighted average AISC decreased (what the hell is  "weighted average"???).
Made the forecast figures easily, and is on track to make 470k to 500k ounces per year at an AISC between US932 to US1020 per year.
Net cash of of USD 162 mill after reducing debt and shelling out a small divvy.
Not sure how inflationary pressures in Cot De Ivorie and Ghana  are going to affect AISC, we will wait and see.
Mick


----------



## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Not a bad quarterly out for PRU.
> Gold production up 14%  compared to same quarter 2021.
> Weighted average AISC decreased (what the hell is  "weighted average"???).
> Made the forecast figures easily, and is on track to make 470k to 500k ounces per year at an AISC between US932 to US1020 per year.
> Net cash of of USD 162 mill after reducing debt and shelling out a small divvy.
> Not sure how inflationary pressures in Cot De Ivorie and Ghana  are going to affect AISC, we will wait and see.
> Mick




Very good quarter and half. Should pay off debt in the next half and have $200m in the bank. The explorations looks positive, but 'inorganic' growth opportunities will be interesting. They have to spend that $$ on something.


----------



## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> Very good quarter and half. Should pay off debt in the next half and have $200m in the bank. The explorations looks positive, but 'inorganic' growth opportunities will be interesting. They have to spend that $$ on something.



Well, a 15% stake  in RCA gold is one way of spending the mullah  for inorganic growth.
And the wording suggests that they are exploring the idea of taking out the rest of the shareholders as  it says 


> “The acquisition of the 15% interest in Orca provides Perseus with a pivotal position in Orca that gives us a platform from which to further evaluate what appears to be a very exciting potential growth opportunity.



Mick


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## Sean K

Been wondering what the next M&A would be in the gold space with all these cashed up gold companies with no debt and free cash flow.

PRU paying 62.9% above the last closing price of Orca? Lucky Orca shareholders.

PRU de-risking their operations by buying a gold mine in .... Sudan.   Plus a 30% share in a mine in Ivory Coast.

I suppose this puts a price on gold resources in Africa at the moment.

In Sudan, Orca have 3.3Moz indicated and a reserve of 2.85Moz @ around 1.1g/t.

Montage Gold in Ivory Coast has 3.16Moz @ .8g/t = about 1Moz for Orca.

So, total about 4.3Moz @ a gram.

Shares and options about 270m and PRU has set a price of 90c a share = 243m indicative MC.

(edit, note: PRU's metrics differ to mine above. Not sure where Orca's extra ounces come from)

So, 243/4.3 = just $56 an ounce?

Add in all the exploration potential, blah blah..

Seems pretty cheap on the surface of it, even though it's even low grade for Africa, and probably adds risk as opposed to reducing it.

They did need to start adding ounces to their inventory to extend production with only 7-8 years left on their other mines.


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## Sean K

PRU hitting 5-year highs with a POG assist, plus they seem to be managing their developments pretty well.


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## brerwallabi

Amazing


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## mullokintyre

Took my profits on PRU today.
Been a great ride, but I like to lock in profits.
I still reckon that there will need to be a correction in Gold, history suggests such a  steep run up needs to have a breather at some time.
Mick


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## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> Took my profits on PRU today.
> Been a great ride, but I like to lock in profits.
> I still reckon that there will need to be a correction in Gold, history suggests such a  steep run up needs to have a breather at some time.
> Mick




Absolutely. I anticipate any suggestion of a ceasefire in Ukraine will be enough reason for a significant drop in gold. (Apparently, negotiations are actually going on in Israel). On the other hand, if those Polish jets start being used to target Russians in Ukraine and Russia says NATO have attacked them, God knows what's next.


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## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> Absolutely. I anticipate any suggestion of a ceasefire in Ukraine will be enough reason for a significant drop in gold. (Apparently, negotiations are actually going on in Israel). On the other hand, if those Polish jets start being used to target Russians in Ukraine and Russia says NATO have attacked them, God knows what's next.



If that happens, the price of gold and its miners will be the very least of my worries.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

PRU released current drilling results from Nkosuo prospect.



> Perseus records further impressive drilling results from the Nkosuo prospect on the Agyakusu Prospecting Licence, located within comfortable trucking distance of the processing facility at the Edikan Gold Mine in Ghana.






> • Resource definition drilling over the northern part of the deposit is now complete and work has begun on the estimation of a maiden Mineral Resource estimate for Nkosuo. This is due to be completed by the end of the June 2022 quarter.






> • Results continue to demonstrate strong potential for shallow, granite-hosted open-pitable gold resources



Will have another pop at this one if it can get below 1.80 again.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

mullokintyre said:


> PRU released current drilling results from Nkosuo prospect.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Will have another pop at this one if it can get below 1.80 again.
> Mick



too late.
Another 52 week high hit on a gold down day.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

Bought back in at 1.85 today.
The Quarterly that came out today was as good as the last quarterly.
Record Production, record sales at a higher price.
AISC actually came down again.
Cash increase by 12%
Still holding to their forecasts for the year.
They have more hedging of gold than I like to see, but it seems to be a function of the Oz management to try to derisk.
Gold crunched overnight, so all goldies down.
Seems like an excellent opportunity to buy back in.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

mullokintyre said:


> Bought back in at 1.85 today.
> The Quarterly that came out today was as good as the last quarterly.
> Record Production, record sales at a higher price.
> AISC actually came down again.
> Cash increase by 12%
> Still holding to their forecasts for the year.
> They have more hedging of gold than I like to see, but it seems to be a function of the Oz management to try to derisk.
> Gold crunched overnight, so all goldies down.
> Seems like an excellent opportunity to buy back in.
> Mick



Well, I got that wrong (again).
Was not a good opportunity to buy back in, the market has come back big time recenly.
Now sitting at 1.61.
Report out today givs increases in reserves and resources.
Always nice to seea potential LOM increase.



> PERSEUS INCREASES EDIKAN’S INVENTORIES OF MINERAL RESOURCES AND ORE RESERVES
> Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) has completed a Feasibility Study on the Nkosuo Project, located approximately seven kilometres north-northwest of its Edikan Gold Mine in Ghana, adding substantial Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves to Edikan’s previously published inventory.
> HIGHLIGHTS
> • Indicated Mineral Resources1 at Nkosuo amount to 14.5Mt at 0.91g/t for 422,000 ounces of contained gold, and Inferred Mineral Resources are estimated at 0.95 million tonnes grading 0.90 g/t gold containing 27,000 ounces of gold at 30 June 2022.
> • Probable Ore Reserves1 total 10 million tonnes of ore grading 1.04g/t gold and containing 332,000 ounces of gold.
> • Planned processing of the Nkosuo Ore Reserves in the Edikan mill is expected to increase the life of the Edikan operation by 18 to 24 months, extending the mine life to FY2027



Despite the temptaion to add more at these prices, I already have enough in the portfolio, so kept the trigger finger in the holster.
For now.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

PRU quarterly out, looks pretty good.
• Key Operating highlights include:
 – Weighted average AISCs of US$952 per ounce for the financial year to 30 June 2022 (FY2022), in the bottom quartile of the market guidance range. AISC for the June 2022 half year and quarter of US$955 and US$1,004 per ounce respectively, both within market expectations.

 – Annual gold production of 494,014 ounces was in upper half of market guidance range, notwithstanding a 19-day preventative maintenance shut at Edikan in the June 2022 quarter. Half Year production of 252,850 ounces included 122,327 ounces of gold produced during the June quarter.

 – Average cash margin of US$731 per ounce of gold for FY2022, and US$748 and US$701 per ounce respectively for the half and quarterly year periods.  – Annual gold sales of 481,075 ounces at a weighted average sales price of US$1,683 per ounce including 111,897 ounces of gold sold during the quarter at US$1,705 per ounce.

 – Notional cashflow from operations of US$361 million during FY2022 included June 2022 Half year and quarterly notional cashflows of US$189 million, and US$85 million respectively.
Gold still in the doldrums, so probably will not see a ig jump today, but it is well primed for future increases.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

PRU September quarter looks pretty good.
Record quarterly gold production of 137,460 ounces, 12% more than in the June 2022 quarter. 
Perseus is on track to achieve its market guidance range of 240,000 to 265,000 ounces for the December 2022 half year.  
– Material improvement at the Edikan Gold Mine with gold production up 82% from previous quarter to 52,127 ounces at an AISC of US$1,060 per ounce, 43% lower than the June quarter. 
– The Group’s weighted average AISC reduced 12% to US$879 per ounce during the quarter, well below market guidance of $1,000 - $1,100 per ounce for the December 2022 half year.  
– Weighted average quarterly sales price of US$1,645 per ounce, generated an average cash margin of US$766 per ounce of gold for the September 2022 quarter.  
– Notional cashflow from operations of US$112 million, a 32% increase from the prior quarter.  
– The Group’s Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) was reduced from 1.29 at the end of the June quarter to 1.19 during the quarter.  
Record Gold production keeps them on track for their indicative yearly production.
Most surprisingly, the weighted average AISC is well below indicative forecasts, I expected it to go the other way.
One of my few greens for the day.
Mick


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## Sean K

I had quite a bit of mulah invested in this over 10 years ago and it's just coming back to that price. What an amazing run for west African goldies the past month or so.


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## mullokintyre

PRU selected as my gold stock in 2022 tipping competition.
It fitted the criteria, and is well placed to benefit from a gold run.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

BTL  produced this interesting list of the gold producers abd their stock performsnce over the year.
For me, PRU the standout.
CMM seems a bit of an anomaly.


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## mullokintyre

PRU reached another all time high this morning.
my average buy in price is 1.76, so well in the money.
Am going to depart from my usual take 10 to 15% profit and sell half.
In for the the medium haul haul on this one, unless it reaches ridiculous prices .
Mick


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## Sean K

mullokintyre said:


> PRU reached another all time high this morning.
> my average buy in price is 1.76, so well in the money.
> Am going to depart from my usual take 10 to 15% profit and sell half.
> In for the the medium haul haul on this one, unless it reaches ridiculous prices .
> Mick




Gee, it's been great since Sep. MC now over $3b. Is that about right for producing 500K ozpa? I think they start running down a couple of their mines in 4-5 years and will need to start planning to replace those ounces soon. Block 14 will do half of it but might need another bolt on soon unless they have a good exploration find. They could buy PDI or ORR that they could bring on in that time frame.


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## mullokintyre

Sean K said:


> Gee, it's been great since Sep. MC now over $3b. Is that about right for producing 500K ozpa? I think they start running down a couple of their mines in 4-5 years and will need to start planning to replace those ounces soon. Block 14 will do half of it but might need another bolt on soon unless they have a good exploration find. They could buy PDI or ORR that they could bring on in that time frame.



Happy for them to buy PDI or ORR, as I hold both.
Mick


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