# Equities on verge of very violent crash?



## michael_selway (23 March 2009)

Well maybe not crash, but big falls soon like from next week onwards?

Reason is its has gone up too much in too little time (since March 6th)?

Also its has gone up IMO with not much "real" good news relative to bad news?

Also look at the Gold Price, it has still remained high?




Agree or Disgree?

Thx

MS


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## wavepicker (23 March 2009)

*Re: Equities On Verge Of Very Violent Crash*

Would have to disagree. If anything Equities are in the early stages of the biggest rally since the bear campaign started. *The market has already crashed* That is not to say that is the end of the bear market though.

We might have to wait another 12 months before the next crash starts!!  
So far we have had a good run off the lows, and a pullback is overdue, perhaps a good opportunity to position for the next leg up.

As for Gold, it only correlates sometimes. What happened during the bull run of 2003-2207, equities and precious metals went up together?

Cheers

Wavepicker


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## waz (23 March 2009)

I have to agree with you, although it wont be a violent crash.

I think its kinda funny that this current bull pattern was all started by the Citigroup CEO saying that they had a good Jan/Feb. For all we know they made a profit of $1 in those two months.


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## nizar (23 March 2009)

LOL isnt 50%+ loss in 12 months very violent enough for you?


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## prana (23 March 2009)

You are right, ....  the dollar  !   *Nominally* - the Dow may be alright. Disclaimer: ignore this crazy absurd post


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## dmagnus (24 March 2009)

I think we will hit 3500 then go for a steady retracement.

Definitely up today anyways.

spread more negatively hey, cause I havent bought enough at the lows


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## nizar (24 March 2009)

Maybe the peak of this rally will happen in the few minutes after the open and then a steady sell-off until the close?

Just my


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## nomore4s (24 March 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Also its has gone up IMO with not much "real" good news relative to bad news?
> 
> Also look at the Gold Price, it has still remained high?




Since when did the markets go in the same direction as the news? Most of this bad news is old news now - we have known about AIG, GMH & the banks probelms for a while now.

Gold looks like a double top on your chart? I actually think we will see a retrace in gold over the next few weeks - maybe



waz said:


> I think its kinda funny that this current bull pattern was all started by the Citigroup CEO saying that they had a good Jan/Feb. For all we know they made a profit of $1 in those two months.




Strength had been building in the market well before then imo.



nizar said:


> Maybe the peak of this rally will happen in the few minutes after the open and then a steady sell-off until the close?
> 
> Just my




Very possible Nizar. But if we can close above resistance @ 3520 the rally could have more legs though.


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## jonnycage (24 March 2009)

i reckon we have experienced the violent crash, not up for another thanks!
if anything i think the stepping stones of the recovery are building, slowly

Jc


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## Uncle Festivus (24 March 2009)

This rally is purely technical, and shows the same symptoms of the previous 'bull' market, all based on missdirected excess liquidity. Panic buying from oversold and short covering. None of the fundamentals have changed for the better, despite the rhetoric from the usual crowd. 

If inviting private investors to take the toxic 'assets' off the banks books (and payed for with freshly printed money), and all will be rosy again, then some people are in for a rude shock. It's only making things far worse.

I can hear the giant fiscal vacuum cleaner luring the last lemmings into the dark & mysterious risk cavern again, to be fleeced of their remaining cash - a typical bear market rally. What to short again.....?


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## MrBurns (24 March 2009)

I reckon when the all ords drops below 300 points Rudd will bail it out.


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## MrBurns (24 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I can hear the giant fiscal vacuum cleaner luring the last lemmings into the dark & mysterious risk cavern again, *to be fleeced of their remaining cash *- a typical bear market rally. What to short again.....?




Thats whats holding this whole thing up. too many people have too much cash as soon as that's been wiped off the screen it wil be time for the real bargains to emerge.


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## sammy84 (24 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Thats whats holding this whole thing up. too many people have too much cash as soon as that's been wiped off the screen it wil be time for the real bargains to emerge.




Citigroup wasn't bad value at $1.....200% gains sound nice to me


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## prana (24 March 2009)

prana said:


> You are right, ....  the dollar  !   *Nominally* - the Dow may be alright. Disclaimer: ignore this crazy absurd post




OoooopS 

Ummmm errrrr well I think, maybe, that can't be good


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## refined silver (24 March 2009)

Gold looks like its forming a reverse H&S IMO.

Dow/XAO - who knows? Yet to break out of down trend, yet each week brings another trillion or so being thrown at the market. Don't forget the best performing stock mkt last year in nominal terms was Zimbabwe! If the uptick rule is reinstated and rules against NAKED shorting enforced, which are both being talked about more and more by the SEC, there could be a decent rally, before the downleg resumes. 

(By Naked shorting, I mean illegal shorting where the shorts do not borrow the shares, but effectively can increase the mkt cap of the company indefinitely until it crashes. Last year "fails to deliver" were 57 times higher than the previous year!!)

Check out:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aB1jlqmFOTCA&refer=home

and 

http://failurestodeliver.com

just type in your US stock. (I think it does some CDN too)


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## metric (24 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Thats whats holding this whole thing up. too many people have too much cash as soon as that's been wiped off the screen it wil be time for the real bargains to emerge.




"simpson eh....? yes, yes, yes... i have to agree."


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## Julia (24 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I reckon when the all ords drops below 300 points Rudd will bail it out.



With more borrowed funds, presumably.


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## MrBurns (24 March 2009)

Julia said:


> With more borrowed funds, presumably.




Naaa I think we'll just print this lot......it's interesting times, there is no way this will save the day, soon it must all come home to roost and it will be awful.

The whole system is so fragile now it's an inevitability.


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## michael_selway (30 March 2009)

dmagnus said:


> I think we will hit 3500 then go for a steady retracement.
> 
> Definitely up today anyways.
> 
> spread more negatively hey, cause I havent bought enough at the lows




Hehe so next time if we do hit a new low, will you buy some? 

thx

MS


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## Aussiejeff (31 March 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Naaa I think we'll just print this lot......it's interesting times, there is no way this will save the day, *soon it must all come home to roost and it will be awful*.
> 
> The whole system is so fragile now it's an inevitability.




*cluck, cluck...._****-A-Doodle-Dooo!_*


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## M34N (31 March 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> *cluck, cluck...._****-A-Doodle-Dooo!_*




The markets still have rallied something like 15% off their lows, so don't cluck yet 

We have gone up a lot in the past few weeks so naturally a 'reality check' from the rally is not unexpected, we were more than overdue for a couple down days. The test will be to see if it continues down or can stabilize from here, but with the earnings season starting in the US soon (next week?) it could either surprise to the upside, or we hit new lows. Either way I'm personally expecting a big move either way and I believe the earnings season will be the trigger.

Personally I'm short BHP at the moment and ready to close it at the latest by the end of week to prevent getting caught.


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## nomore4s (31 March 2009)

Interesting response by the XAO this morning, be interesting to see what the rest of the day brings.


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## waz (31 March 2009)

I think the rise in the All ords since 10am can be explained in the bullish pre-market activity for the Hang Seng (which currently is expected to open even). Something good must be coming out of China today. Dont know what though.

Edit:
Just realised, 31st March is a big day for Asia. Lots of window dressing today.


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## moXJO (31 March 2009)

This is way OT and a bit off with the fairies (And possibly a sign I'm trading too much) But last night I dreamt I was in a paddock surrounded by miniature bulls. Must have been stock related because I flew to Japan to check the DJIA
As a bonus one of the bulls gored my wife:. Being a sophisticated investor I took this as a sign rubbed my lucky Buddha statue, and rabbits foot, then adjusted the horseshoe before buying up big 


Just in case
(Not financial advice and I didn't buy up either)


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## Mitsimonsta (31 March 2009)

moXJO said:


> last night I dreamt I was in a paddock surrounded by miniature bulls. Must have been stock related because I flew to Japan to check the DJIA



This is hilarious. Were they Wagyu or some other Japanese breed? 



moXJO said:


> As a bonus one of the bulls gored my wife:



Good bull. I'd be feeding it beer.

Looks like market is still shaky.... very volatile in today's movements.


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## White_Knight (31 March 2009)

The question is, what anatomical part did the bull gore your wife with?

Perhaps the dream wasnt investment related at all and you should be looking closer to home!


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## Trembling Hand (31 March 2009)

waz said:


> I think the rise in the All ords since 10am can be explained in the bullish pre-market activity for the Hang Seng (which currently is expected to open even).






So all the buying in the SPI & ASX from the open was from the HSI that was 3 hours away from any transactions?


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