# AWB - AWB Limited



## Dr Zoot (30 January 2006)

I did a search for AWB but it seems that no one wants to know about the Australian Wheat Board!!

Do you think that they will get over this current enquiry hurdle? Surely the fundamentals of the company will be unaffected ... a couple of heads might roll, but they are still selling lots of wheat.


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## Duckman#72 (30 January 2006)

In my opinion, AWB has fundamental philosophical issues in the way the company is structured - how can they act in the best interest of the graingrowers and also the best interest of the shareholders. I don't think they can.

This might be a growing murmur - as I see on the front page of The Australian last week there was a story debating whether the "Single Price Flooring" that AWB operate under is actually effective and efficient. Australia's single largest graingrower is calling for the markets to be thrown open. 

There maybe more turmoil and chaos at AWB headquarters for many months to come.   

Duckman


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## Julia (3 March 2006)

*Re: AWB - AWB Limited: Memory Problems*

I've been feeling awfully sorry for Mr Trevor Flugge, Chairman (or is it now ex-Chairman) of AWB.

The poor chap is completely deaf in one ear and has minimal hearing in the other.

He can never remember where he puts his diary, continually loses it, and thus has no idea when he was where.

The same memory problems mean that he can't remember the minimal details he may just possibly have heard with his minimal hearing capacity, particularly as his hearing problem is exacerbated within the noise of a meeting.

He can't understand computers and thus cannot access emails sent to him or reply to same.

If this were some nobody on the dole, they would be given intensive assistance to make them "job-ready".

Mr Flugge received about $1M to spend 10 months in Iraq doing something very vague for the Australian government.

Julia


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## phoenixrising (5 March 2006)

*Re: AWB - AWB Limited: Memory Problems*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> I've been feeling awfully sorry for Mr Trevor Flugge, Chairman (or is it now ex-Chairman) of AWB.
> 
> The poor chap is completely deaf in one ear and has minimal hearing in the other.
> 
> ...




LOL a combination of Bondy (Alan Bond I can't remember any financials) and Skase (cough,cough, i can't come back to Oz from my Spanish island to face the music).

Hard to say if "one desk" is best or not.China is adopting it with iron ore contract negotiations, as did Japan in the 80's for Coal. Some of our coal producers went broke with very low offers, hard to imagine now, resources on the nose then.

ABB (au barley board) has similar contacts and produce could also do the job.
GNC (graincorp) maybe also, is in the grain handling/storage area, could adapt to marketing if push comes to shove.

AWB may be a buy at some stage, could bounce back, but risky.


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## mime (10 March 2006)

Does anyone know how important the wheat contract with Iraq was to the company? I heard that the US will suffer more drought in the coming years so the price of wheat will go up. I think this could be a awesome opportunity to purchase shares to a great price. Of course more research would be a good idea.

Edit: The current S.P is close to it's float price. Wouldn't this indicate it's been over sold?


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## guru (6 April 2006)

Interestingly the stock has done a double bottom, stop loss would be at 3.60 and clear skys if it can breach 4.20 resistence with wheat price on its way up and the quality of Australian wheat.


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## twojacks28 (11 April 2006)

hmmmmmm ... interesting topic. AWB is legally irresponsible however when you are dealing with these kind of countries paying kickbacks and other things isnt uncommon as they are all corrupt. Iraq is not going to buy Australian wheat through AWB so they have lost substanial profits for this year as that was their biggest contract. Will be interesting to follow.

Twojacks28


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## twojacks28 (26 April 2006)

what do you guys think about AWB's future? will it improve or go downhill even more?


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## mime (13 October 2006)

AWB is getting slammed today in a rising market. I don't know what to do. ****

Surly the stock has been over sold. They still have a monoply huge earning potential.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (13 October 2006)

Well seems AWB is bad news .Its possibly as simple as that .Unless they are tied up with a Afghani scandal also.........sorrry just trying to scare thou.


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## alankew (13 October 2006)

ABC news said that it is the effects of the worst drought.


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## bug (13 October 2006)

All the agribusiness stocks got slammed with the latest drought news.

At today's prices, AWB has a 10%!! dividend and p/e of 9.  That strikes me as a great buying point.  The bad news about Iraq and the drought are obviously being factored in, but even this has its limit eventually.  

The payments made by AWB to Iraq have the hallmarks of 'commissions' sought by other governments in other countries where western companies do business.  What about the extra $100 million Woodside, Hardman and other Australian oil companies agreed to pay the new Mauritanian government to continue their business there?  AWB did not fund terror, but really paid kickbacks to get a hold of the Iraqi wheat business.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (14 October 2006)

bug said:
			
		

> All the agribusiness stocks got slammed with the latest drought news.
> 
> *At today's prices, AWB has a 10%!! dividend and p/e of 9.  That strikes me as a great buying point.
> 
> **The payments made by AWB to Iraq have the hallmarks of 'commissions' sought by other governments in other countries where western companies do business.  What about the extra $100 million Woodside, Hardman and other Australian oil companies agreed to pay the new Mauritanian government to continue their business there?  AWB did not fund terror, but really paid kickbacks to get a hold of the Iraqi wheat business.




*Well I watched this share today like a hawk , likewise GNC (I prefer GNC @ the moment  ) ,whether it can sustain 10% divi is open to question ,but to halt the sentiment against this share,it makes me sit up and think geeee how much more bad news can this share take? Interesting share for my long term portfolio sector. I wonder if they will change their name soon aswell as their boardroom .......  


**Re: above comment HDR/WPL ....the oil scenario is slightly different to that of AWB involvement in the UN *sanctions* in Iraq.Lets not forget AWB where not the only ones doing these back-handers and this form of payments are the norm in the Middle East ,Africa ,& South America .
Unfortunately the white rabbit pulled out was AWB .....funny how Halliburton went through the revolving doors.


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## pods (14 October 2006)

I thought the price increases in Weat would have been a good thing... much like oil going up is to oil resource companies.

Although AWB may be selling less wheat, it'll be selling what it does have at a higher price. Selling less wheat may mean lower costs. Selling at a higher price it will contrast against the less wheat, although by how much you couldn't be sure. Basically, i thought selling wheat, at higher price and incuring less costs would have been a good thing :/


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## 3 veiws of a secret (15 October 2006)

pods said:
			
		

> I thought the price increases in Weat would have been a good thing... much like oil going up is to oil resource companies.
> 
> Although AWB may be selling less wheat, it'll be selling what it does have at a higher price. Selling less wheat may mean lower costs. Selling at a higher price it will contrast against the less wheat, although by how much you couldn't be sure. Basically, i thought selling wheat, at higher price and incuring less costs would have been a good thing :/




I bought the Fin-Review on saturday just to read the snippet on AWB/GNC's drop in share price p.11 states Tom Keene(GNC) is still optimistic on forecasting a profit of $34>$37million  for 2006 fiscal yr. Me thinks how come? is it because GNC have diversified compared to AWB ,or is because wheat futures might rise? Lastly WTOrg is a noose around AWB,so its still a risky concern,and Cole's report/findings  haaaaaaaaaa what a happy bunch of campers they all must be passing the hot potato around @ AWB. 
Sorry I'm no economist just a humble conehead! :homer:


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## RichKid (20 October 2006)

AWB looks like it may have found a temporary bottom, if not a major bottom, but it is far too early to say imo, we'll need to see what happens over the next few weeks. The sellers could well be exhausted after what appears to be the initial capitulation phase in this turnaround.


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## Young Gun (21 October 2006)

> I thought the price increases in Weat would have been a good thing... much like oil going up is to oil resource companies.
> 
> Although AWB may be selling less wheat, it'll be selling what it does have at a higher price. Selling less wheat may mean lower costs. Selling at a higher price it will contrast against the less wheat, although by how much you couldn't be sure. Basically, i thought selling wheat, at higher price and incuring less costs would have been a good thing :/




Pod , increases in wheat prices are good for the stock however the AWB has hedged its wheat for the next 12 months and as a result the price for gain in about $300 a tonne and AWB has forward sold it for $200 a tonne. 

The massive sell down on the stock is due to 3 things: 
- Iraq kickbacks episode 
- Drought contiunaly reducing the forecasted harvest for this financial year
- AWB forward selling its grain and as a result farmers are not happy that the prices they are receiveing a below market price. 
- Uncertaininty if the single desk monopoly will continue 
- Uncertainintiy if AWB will have to pay a large fine to the government as a result of its actions 
- Uncertanity regarding a large outstanding tax bill that may / may not need to be paid 
- Uncertaininity about the management 
- Uncertaininity about AWB being able to sell its grain internationality due to its tarnished reputation


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## Ken (27 October 2006)

Dividend Policy

The directors expect to continue to pay regular dividends to B Class shareholders (depending on the current circumstances of AWB Limited) consistent with AWB Limited’s corporate objective of providing B Class shareholders with a reasonable commercial rate of return. 

It is intended that these dividends will be maintained at a relatively stable level. However, the actual level of dividends payable in any given year and the associated level of franking may vary and will depend on a number of factors, including changes in taxation legislation, AWB Limited’s earnings and its cash requirements at the time.

It is intended that future dividends for each financial year will be paid in two instalments. It is likely that an interim dividend will be payable around July and a final dividend will be payable around December.  It is anticipated that the interim dividend will generally be larger than the final dividend, reflecting the fact that a higher proportion of AWB Limited’s  profit is earned in the first half of the financial year.

AWB Limited will review, on an annual basis, the appropriateness of a dividend reinvestment plan for AWB Limited.


one would think if there was a case where a dividend would be cut it would be now.

Westpac broking have an avoid recommendation.  

AWE closed at 2.45. anyone looked at it.  Seems cheap if they keep the dividend. 

how low do people think it will go?


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## barney (28 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> Dividend Policy
> 
> The directors expect to continue to pay regular dividends to B Class shareholders (depending on the current circumstances of AWB Limited) consistent with AWB Limited’s corporate objective of providing B Class shareholders with a reasonable commercial rate of return.
> 
> ...





Hi Ken, Maybe its the possibility that AWB will not go much higher in the medium term that is the biggest deterrant..... $2 inthe short -medium term would not surprise me, but I'm only guessing,  Cheers Barney.


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## Ken (2 November 2006)

bought $2.47 sold 2.61...

thats enough for me at this point, its raining today so i think thats why people are buying... lol...


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## chops_a_must (2 November 2006)

The findings of the Cole Inquiry have to be handed down by the 24th of this month.

In related news, it appears as if 7-8 other Australian companies are under investigation for similar breaches, so AWB have a right to say, "why us?" In my opinion.

As a result of this, it appears as if Downer's head will have to roll.

Expect the stock to be sold off as nerves of the findings grow up until the 24th, and then, depending on the findings, expect the stock to go nuts either way.


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## pacer (2 November 2006)

Who were the other companies involved I wonder...looking for a short here.


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## chops_a_must (2 November 2006)

One was an oil importer in Kwinana. From memory that could only be one that is affiliated with BP. Although I'm not 100% sure about that. And the others they didn't say.

If you look at the 7.30 report web site, and look for news articles from this Tuesday night, you may be able to find more details.


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## chops_a_must (2 November 2006)

Here we are:

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2006/s1778230.htm

Easy.


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## traderandy (24 November 2006)

It's the 24th, and AWB has steadily risen by 8%

...what the heck?

no news seen on the Cole enquiry findings yet


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## traderandy (27 November 2006)

> AWB is expected to announce it will separate AWB International, which holds the single-desk export veto, from the remaining AWB business which provides services to grain growers and other farmers.




http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...agued-australia/2006/11/26/1164476071809.html

The SP is up another 4%....how do you see this issue affecting the market?

Both AWB and others in the industry


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## mime (27 November 2006)

I read an atrical in the paper during breakfest about AWB. It said it could be a potential takeover target because of it's assets or something like that. I just hope I can regain some of my losses.


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## ROE (18 January 2007)

Has anyone seen this baby? Slowly picking up 2-3% each day for the last few days...

Good results start to surface in time of trouble?


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## theasxgorilla (18 January 2007)

Yes, the smart money is already in this one...


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## Crash (15 March 2007)

Looks like its going to start the day up a good bit, anyone know why?


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## ROE (22 March 2007)

This baby been creeping up 1% a day every since 
I reckon people are confident AWB wont lose their monopoly power with the national strongly backing them and could make trouble for Howard government if they stripped AWB off its single desk.

I think single desk is the only weapon we got against the USA in Agriculture as the US government is heavily subsidise their farmers.

The US is trying hard to break AWB single desk as well and they been writing bad stuff about AWB over there because surprise surprise it will benefits the American farmers.

We don't want Aussies farmer fighting among themselves for a few bucks more per ton in wheat.   

I'm backing AWB all the way


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## Crash (22 March 2007)

Yeah and our media falls for the US propaganda on all this, they couldnt care less about our farmers from their city offices.


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## Portfolio (16 April 2007)

Still creeping higher. Good stock at a cheap price but still risks abound.


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## TheAnalyst (4 November 2007)

*AWB*

Has anyone been watching AWB? I have seen the share price have a breakout and have also noted that there are now buy recommendations on the stock, it also has upgraded its earning forecast, for this year.


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## ROE (5 November 2007)

I still believe AWB will be exporting a lot of wheat even after they lose their monopoly power. 

The new body doesnt have the experience, the people and the capital to do the job so they still call on AWB.

Dont forget AWB landmark business  fear and uncertainty has once again knock down this baby. Time for it to get up


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## DowJones (26 December 2007)

Does anyone has a positive view on AWB? Buying it would be a subscribing to a contrarian view, but when it does rain, it'll pour (share price)...

Is it worth to stash some $ into wheat stocks like AWB (GNC, ABB), as they are quite low in price and wheat prices are at record highs. I think lots of potential...

China will have a big demand for bread (i.e Maccas) -> more demand for soft commodities on top of the iron ore demand!


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## bandicoot (20 February 2008)

With the exception of A/B schizophrenic AWB, grain and horticulture stocks are underpriced: GNC, ABB, even  house-of-mirrors TIM. AWB is a roulette stock.


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## Crash (27 March 2008)

Yanks drop class action.  Hopefully one step on the way back for AWB.  Of course the media which continues to nail AWB probably wont note this with any enthusiasm.


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## reece55 (23 April 2008)

Nice little profit upgrade today, but looks like there is a bit of selling pressure out there today on the stock.

Fundy's starting to turn right around for this stock.... Forward P/E in a rising soft commodity market of about 11-13, looks extremely cheap to me....

Technicals - great day yesterday, as I said a bit of selling pressure now. But great recapture of the 200 MA, potential after a bit of a pullback IMO...

I know someone in the finance department in AWB and their view is that internally the business is really turning around since the whole corruption issue. Certainly appears to be showing through....

Cheers


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## josjes (23 April 2008)

reece55 said:


> Nice little profit upgrade today, but looks like there is a bit of selling pressure out there today on the stock.
> 
> Fundy's starting to turn right around for this stock.... Forward P/E in a rising soft commodity market of about 11-13, looks extremely cheap to me....
> 
> ...




Thanks for the update Reece. A very wild ride for the holder of this stock. Plunged to all time low 2.03 just two months ago, and up 50% now.  To my calculation it will be 50% retracement from high of 4.38 and 2.03 which is $3.2 as the price resistance. 

In my opnion the share is not for a buy and hold throw in the back of your drawer. What do you think is the next resistance level and price target ? 

Also, good to hear that internal business is starting to turn around.


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## Boggo (28 May 2008)

Looks like it may get a bit of upside.

This came up in my scans this morning.

The agricultural sector seems to be in demand, world shortages and and rising prices.


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## dmagnus (19 March 2009)

put in a bit at 91c... have not looked back =)

seems to be regaining alot of lost ground, BKN-esque

FCL too =) all smiles here


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## vitala (15 May 2009)

Still anyone holding AWB atm?
unfortunately, i got some AWB in a high value, now 20% straight loss atm.

AWB has a consecutive 5-6 days drop desipte a little rally in the mid week.

Do u guys reckon theres future for this stock or i should cut loss at this volatile period?


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## vitala (19 May 2009)

Seems like no one is holding this sloppy stock in these days. 

After today's rally in go back down again now. So upset that i didnt take my time to sell some of the shares out in the morning


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## nunthewiser (21 April 2010)

FWIW.

I have taken a position recently in this based on a technical basis only. 

Normal traders may want to wait until it breaks major resistance and pops the triangle.

Abnormal traders may like to sit in the triangle and use a nicer low%loss on stoploss points.

take it as a ramp , take it as an observation, either way maybe worth a watch.


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## madmax_76 (9 August 2010)

Given the recent merger with GrainCorp, rise in wheat prices due to drought elsewhere in the world I could speculate some positive reaction.......here's hoping it maintains positive momentum.


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## noie (16 August 2010)

No Comments on todays news,  did anyone see this int he pipeline?

SP up 29.680% at todays closer after a $1.2B takeover bid


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