# Positions updates



## Sean K

I suppose something to put here may be a list of my current holdings so people know if I'm ramping something I own, or if I'm ramping it for someone else.  

Alternatively, if I'm downramping something, and I hold it, someone else is obviously ramping it!  See BMN thread for a good example of this.  

I'll update things when I buy or sell a stock, and weekly, to reflect portfolio rebalance.

This is _obviously _not a 'model share portfolio' for the average investor. I have previously held many 'blue chips' in the portfolio but I now use the managed funds to capture those companies. My brother, who is a financial planner, would consider these stock holdings as an abomination, when looked at in isolation. He's happy with the managed funds though, because he's recommended them to me. 

I do quite a bit of very short term trading also which won't be captured here and I might put that under another topic.

----------------------------------------------
Note: I am not qualified in anything remotely related to finance, so please, DYOR, get your own advisor, blah, blah, blah...


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## motion

Kennas, Great work, it's interesting to see what other people are interested in and how it works for them. I'm interested in blogs because it's a way of learning and sharing your own thoughts on a general scale...

I will keep reading your blogs keep up the great graphs....


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## Joe Blow

Nice work Kennas!

This is exactly the sort of thing I was hoping people would post in here! Interesting stuff, keep it up!


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## marklar

Thanks for the insight Kennas, I too have moved my trading away from blue chips as I have already got sufficient exposure to them through Super and managed funds.  Speccie miners and biotechs have got my attention.


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## Sean K

Bought more NEM today $5.34.


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## Sean K

I doubled my holding in NEM this week with POG breaking $700. I was going to top up LHG and NCM as well but decided to wait for a few days to see what goes on with the US market in general. Looks like there's still potential for further sharp drops in the market in the coming weeks. 

I'm considering taking some off across the board in the comming days, pending market action. 

I've also amended the graphs in the first post to represent my day trading account with IG. That was included in the cash component previously, as I don't leave positions open overnight. 

Cheers! kennas


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## Sean K

Looks to have broken out with POG and news of TSX listing.


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## Sean K

30 cents seems to have formed up as significant resistance and there's a nasty H&S looming. Just taking a few off the table to see how it pans out. Sold half.


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## Sean K

Been holding this for a little while and it's just not moving. Getting a bit bored.  

Valentine will turn into an elephant now.


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## Sean K

Recently bought more LGL and NEM.

Sold half NWE and all FAR.


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## doctorj

FAR clearly didn't fit in to your shares beginning with 'm' or 'n' only policy 

In all seriousness though, good stuff.  You know what I think about FAR - sold down most and just waiting for Canning for the rest.


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## Sean K

LOL. In the past I have tried to cover the alphabet for 'diversification', but I'm lacking now aren't I! Definately need some gold, oil, or uranium after N....Then I'll be more diversified.


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## Sean K

Didn't like the resource downgrade at all. The reasons for discounting a large proportion of the original estimate are unclear to me. So, until I understand what's going on there, I'm on the sidelines.


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## Sean K

After selling MTN and stock movements.


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## Sean K

H&S may not eventuate. Looks to be breaking back above 30. 

With a positive hold I may step back in.


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## Sean K

Broken up. 

Selling half at .285 was a great move!


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## Sean K

I'd be ramping by putting this in the forum.


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## vishalt

looks like a nice buy with Gold taking off, personally id just buy a small quantity today and then put a decent sized order @ support, i hate not getting in the stock waiting for a so called "pull-back" which doesnt happen in extremely bullish markets


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## Dutchy3

Hi kennas

Big White + Volume + new air for this one on Thursday ... Not much adverse reaction on Friday to the move either ... opportunity to top up?


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## Sean K

There have been ongoing rumours that either may be a takeover target but I believe the best case for both companies, and for the Australian gold industry, would be to merge and form a mega gold miner to take on the big players. With both errasing their hedge book and clearing debt they will have the balance sheet for numerous and significant acquistions. Perhaps even become one of the top 3 gold miners over the next 5 years. Now's the time to get into bed boys, or be taken by a foreigner.


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## moneymajix

BTW, thanks for your chart and comments re CFE this morning.


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## Sean K

Will top up if it holds above $2.50 tomorrow. Maybe.


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## Sean K

Bought a small parcel of EXM on break up through 3 cents. Very speccie so won't hold on a break down through 3. Resistance between 3.7-4 cents, where I'll probably jump off, pending.


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## Sean K

Picked up a couple more now, prior to close and tomorrow's confirmation. Looks more sustainable right now.


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## Sean K

Bought more on break through 2.75.


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## Sean K

Hoping that $2.75 will firm as support now, and I will consider topping up again if it does. This is my largest holding now with LGL. 

Still cautious of dramatic sell offs in the US to topple us, so being conservative right now.


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## Sean K

This week sold *NEM *at break even after bad news crunched them. The same type of bad news that has crimped them the past year or so.

Bought more *BMN *on break up through $2.50 and $2.75. 

Bought an initial stake in *EXM *on break through 3 cents. Will top up if 3 confirmed as support, or push through 3.5. Hoping that drilling starting this month will give it a significant boost. This is more a short term trade and I won't hold it if it fails down through 3.

Have recently cleared margin loan and have added a few units to *Hunter Hall GVT*...

With gold spiking as I speak I anticipate *LGL *and *NCM *to gap up quite a bit Monday am, and I may take a few profits. 

Gold has run too hard IMO and if this continues I suspect a sharp correction back to around the $700 mark. 

*HLX *broke up to all time highs last week probably due to the free option attracting investors. I may buy a few more next week as I'm confident that positive Yalleen drilling results will rerate the company.

*KMN *is disappointing to say the least. Their 2 assets are world class and I reckon it should have a market cap well above current levels. Perhaps a good JORC confirming Kalman to be a major Mo/Cu/Au/Re/U deposit will do it. It's due around Christmas, or just after. Could be a watershed. If the next drilling results confirm further good grades, I'll probably buy more.

The P&L on current holdings has been amended as I was using an incorrect formula to calculate the %.


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## moneymajix

Kennas

The only stock we have in common is EXM.

HLX has done very well of late.

Best of luck.


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## Sean K

Looks like a technical correction in USD doing the same for POG at the moment, as expected. 

Holding onto large positions in LGL and NCM for long term and will top up holdings on expected POG retrace to around $700.


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## moneymajix

Hi Kennas

See you are in Cuzco now.

Bit of altitude there. 

Are you going to go do a tour of the Sacred Valley?


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## Sean K

Hi MM,

Yep, very high. I'm sitting in what is claimed to be the highest tapas bar in the world! LOL. 

My wife is here for work for a week so I've just tagged along. She has a long weekend so we're going to go to Aguas Calientas/Machu Picchu for 2 days and then hire some motor bikes and ride through the sacred valley.


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## moneymajix

Awesome!

From memory I think you can take a dip in the hot springs pool at Aguas Calientas.


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## Sean K

Bought more on break through $3.00, but it failed. Damn it!!!! Probably a bit anxious that it was running away and I have some equity burning a hole in my pocket. Patience grasshopper....


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## It's Snake Pliskin

Where do see this one going Kennas? What is your time frame?


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## Sean K

Good question. I was just trading this off the charts because there were no concrete fundamentals. However the scoping study has confirmed a few things and they look likely to get a 100m lb resource at just one of the anomalies on their tennament near Rossing. There's a chance they could eventually get up to 150m lbs final JORC. I'm not sure what their market cap should be right now. Once the JORC is out for the entire length of the strike to 300m depth we'll know. Should be much higher I'd say. So, holding till JORC comes out and re-evaluate, unless there's any other news before hand of course. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets taken over though.


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## Sean K

I'm actually thinking now that short term for both companies this would be shortt term negative for their sp's.

There is quite a takeover premuim built into both companies right now (how much?) and if they were to conduct a friendly merger then the takeover premium would go from both, thus being negative for their short term sp.

Still think longer term the market would digest this to be SUPER  deal, for both companies. 

Holding both long term (buy on dips) for expected sharp spike in POG and consolidation above $700....


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## Sean K

I've pretty much withheld from buying much the past few weeks expecting the US to produce some more correction causing news but it hasn't eventuated.... 

I've missed some great opportunites in the big caps with the market breaking high after high...
 

HLX - Looking at topping up if support around 30 cents holds. Expecting AQA to take a larger position and Yalleen results to provide continued support.

LGL and NCM - Will add more on dips.

BMN - Looks to have found support at $2.75. Looking to add a few more if this holds here to confirm upward trend in tact.

EXM - $0.03 holding. Will add more this week if confirmed support. Drilling starts end Oct which I expect to provide good support.

KMN - Good ann out confirming Cu/Mo all over the shop at Kalman. Piles of assays awaited. Looks like it might be ready to break up on the chart. Or down...But market cap to au comparison tells me a near bottom has been found. 

I'm going to ditch Platinum International Fund this week, which has been a turkey. Money will be ready for other opportunities.

I haven't been day trading due to being in Cuzco and holidaying!!


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## Sean K

Bought just a few more at 3.4. Looks like a break through 3 cents for now.


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## Sean K

Holding nicely above 30c for the moment. If AQA get some good drilling results out in this environment, I imagine this will be well supported...


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## It's Snake Pliskin

Is this a technical or fundamental buy Kennas?


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## Sean K

Fundamentally speculative on the charts. 

This is very spec Snake and I have no confidence in it doing anything really. Just throwing a few $ at what is a high risk/high return opportunity. 

Historic grades at Tennant Creek are obscenely high. 100++ g/t common at the Juno deposit, up to 35m width. 

I think the company is targetting 2m + oz au with the drilling to start end of month. If they get similar grades, this will be one of the richest finds in the country.

So, 'fundamentally', if they come out with an ann stating 10m+ ish at anything over 100 g/t, I'd expect them to spike a tad with gold going ok. This is really what I'm in for now.  

I didn't want to get in till I saw uptrend continue which meant 3 cents had to be broken. Should be good support there now, more at 2,8 ish. If it doesn't hold above that, then something may be wrong with the program...

Still super spec and any company that has changed it's name four times is a concern to me....so, I haven't put the house on it.....I am watching volume and price action closely however to buy more. Probably next step for me will be to buy more on rise above .036 and .04.


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## Sean K

Considering buying this on potential break up through $1.50, stop under $1.43 ish. 

Inverse H&S set up


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## Sean K

Just clinging on to 30. 

Holding for Yalleen results.....

Come on AQA! Strike while the iron's hot!!!


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## Sean K

Perhaps consolidation over between $730-740, now breaking $750. Looking to add to NCM on break, maybe a shorter term CFD chart trade. Should be good to break all time highs with POG running like this.


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## moneymajix

October has been hot.


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## Sean K

Broken through. Buying a few with initial stop at $1.45. Market's looking toppy to me!


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## Sean K

BPT breakout through $1.50, stop $1.45. 

HLX due for drilling results and FS from AQA at Yalleen. With fe going bananas I expect a good ann to provide plenty of interest.

NWE broke back through 30, should now be support.


Having done this, concerned with market excitement to pretty lame anns right now. Seems there's a lot of money trying to find a home with weak funnymenatals. Expecting correction, but with these stocks running just have to be in...


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## Sean K

Cracking all time highs over $4.20. 

Enjoying this. 

While it lasts!! 

I should be locking in some profits, but I'm human. 

LOL


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## Sean K

Spoke to HLX last night and have confirmed AQA not due to produce JORC till Q2 08. Why was I thinking it was imminent? 

With other comparable iron ore companies having MCs blasting through $100m, I think I'm going to hold.


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## Sean K

Was delivered my cheap rights issue the past 2 days and thought I'd top up a few more as well.

Holding above $27.00 well, looking for new break through ATM $29.50..

I've been waiting for a major gold correction to top up LGL and NCM but where the hell is it??!!

Will only top up on any further correction in POG.


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## Sean K

In the last week:

**Topped up a few HLX, NWE and NCM
**Received rights issue from NCM (7 for 20 @ $17.40)
**Received HLX free bonus options (1 for 8)
**Redeemed all units in Platinum International Fund
**Ceased regular investment in Hunter Hall VGT

Comming up:

**Will look at more HLX on break through 35
**Watching KMN very closely for turn around at which time I will buy more. Looking for higher lows and break through 70. As much as I love the funnymentals, the market doesn't seem to. Concerning. 
**Need to work out a plan for BPT. Seems to have broken out well, but not sure if this is just a chart trade or long term hold for the funnys. Not really sure what the funnys are yet. I think it's an oil company. :


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## moneymajix

Did you buy more EXM?


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## Sean K

Yes, but I think that was the last update. Topped up on 10 Oct. Ave price .033.


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## Gurgler

Sean

So, following the 2.6% drop on the DJIA how would you see the plan changing - if at al?

Do you allow all stops to be taken out and top up on stoacks when sp's settle?

Or are there some of these positions that you soldier through with?

Greg


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## Sean K

Greg, I have reduced my stock holdings from about 50 to the current 10 which will allow me to move fast if required. Except for EXM and maybe BPT, these are longer term positions that I am sure will do OK in the long run. I'm in a position where I do not need an income from the market, so I can wait. I'm going to watch the open tomorrow and may short the index to hedge, and/or take advantage of a knee jerk. I will also look to buy more of any of my current holdings depending....

I think housing/credit crunch is largely factored in at the moment and I think the damage is ring fenced around the financial services sector associated with sub prime. I also think BRIC is NOT entirely factored in and is going to drive the Australian economy for another 10+ years. This is a long term perspective. 

On the other hand, the Western consumerist psych is troubling and may end in great disaster....

I may be wrong.


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## Sean K

I topped up some NCM last week on what I thought was a break up which would have a probably ta target of about $34.00. Unfortunately, I was gazzumped by the 2.6% slide in the US. However, break still looks highly probable. With POG holding and DOW up tonight I will be adding more tomorrow. 

HLX reached my ahort term t/a target of 45 cents yesterday and I now expect consolidation between here and break up level around 35/36 cents. I'll be looking to top up further on any weakness.


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## Sean K

I may be out tomorrow.


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## Sean K

NWE failing badly at 30 due to panic selling of AED on waht's deemed to be a bad ann. Should be more support around 25, so holding to see how it goes.


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## Sean K

These two are powering along  due to POG running away.

I reckon they'll both be getting out of reach of a big goldie shortly with their MCs surging....

If someone had have really wanted them perhaps that should have been done a couple of months ago...


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## Sean K

Futures up over $10, cracking $780. 

Should be a nice day for these two Monday after breaking all time highs on Friday.

Must have a consolidation period shortly.

Pending major market corrections it looks like POG is just going to keep running. 

Read one commentator on Kitco saying that we'd see a $100 jump day in gold shortly. Golly.

I haven't added anymore LGL for a while and have been waiting for a decent correction to do so...


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## vishalt

LGL for the win D:


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## Sean K

I expected 5% gains on these two yesterday. Oh well.  POGs over $790 at the minute, so maybe tomorrow. 

If the fed doesn't cut rates expect a sharp correction in gold. I might have to hedge a bit I feel.


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## Sean K

Both down. LGL by 5% due to production downgrade. Profit taking on NCM I feel.


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## Sean K

Bought a few more KMN today after what seemed to be good Re results from Kalman. 

I am still expecting a very large resource to be JORCed at Kalman in late Dec or Jan which should put the deposit on the map. 

Doesn't look pretty on the charts and I am finding it hard to come up with a sound explanation. 

They are probably faily valued on San Anton, so any value in Kalman should eventually come through...I hope.


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## vishalt

was probably profit taking, LGL's drop makes it look attractive


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## Sean K

Topped up a few on the break through 35 and it's since broken to 56 high settling back at 50. I suspect AQA buying. MC must be starting to get less inviting, so I'll be looking at taking some off the table tomorrow, probably.


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## Sean K

LGL recovered well and NCM breaking all time highs again. 

NCM CEO out saying they've got their sights on 4 goldies they could takeover. Criteria being the capability of 200K oz year output. That would mean 2m oz resource plus I suppose. Wonder if LGL is on the list?

DOW tanking 300 pts as I write so I might have an opportunity to pick up a few more of these a little cheaper in the comming days.


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## Sean K

Haven't sold due to what I see as surprising strength after what can only be called a significant spike. Looks like support at 45 now and I suspect some consolidation sideways for a bit before heading higher, while anything fe is HOT. I think a MC of $100m isn't out of the question (gen peer comparison - CUL, YML) after they firm up 100Mt + (30% of) and prove they have the exploration potential for 100s more.


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## Sean K

Where the heck is the consolidation? I was hoping to top up a few more LHG and NCM at lower prices...


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## Sean K

Support held very well at 2.8/3. 

Unusual volume spike on Friday. Will be topping up after the dust settles on Monday pending anything else unusual.

If these guys come out with the historical grades claimed in this gold frenzy, should be some decent short term gains to be made.


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## moneymajix

Yes. Could be good. 
Why didn't I buy more at sub 2c????????????

PS: How is Joe?


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## moneymajix

...


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## Sean K

Joe left Cusco on Friday for the Amazon and is back in Lima this afternon I think.


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## Sean K

Added a few more this morning. 

Looks like very good support between $3.00-$3.25 holding and it's breaking further up. Will probably fall off this arvo as usual.....


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## Sean K

I was expecting a decent break up from inverse H&S formation. Still holding around break area, but I'm getting bored. I'm here for a good time not a long time. Money better spent elsewhere.....


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## Sean K

Decided to hold expecting hold around support at 45 ish.

While fe's hot, expecting punters to be hanging around closer to AQA JORC, and exploration results.


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## Sean K

Held OK yesty and continues to break up. I assume some resistance at all time highs as it keeps trending up with some longer term support established at those blue lines. 

POU seems to have found a base and looks to be heading up ish again, probably adding support here. 

TSX listing comming up shortly may provide a similar impetus to what EXT experienced. 

Then if they come out with a 100Mt + JORC, on just Anomaly A, should be healthy for the SP I imagine.


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## Sean K

Bought a few more EXM this arvo @ 3.6. Looks like it's found some intraday support and set for test of ATM. Just holding for the likely build up to drill results and my plan is to take advantage of short term interest.


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## Sean K

Actually surprised to see it reach $3.58 today. It's being chased a little now with punters desperate to get in before more news, IMO. 

I think there will be another significant market correction shortly which will provide another opportunity to top up, which I have been waiting for....


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## moneymajix

Interesting.


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## Sean K

Over the past week:

*EXM *- added some at .036, will add more on break through .04. My target .05. 

*BMN *- Added a few at 3.35. Will add more on any pullback. TSX listing, U appreciating, and next JORC should provide support.

*BPT *- sold all at 2% loss - was getting bored. Oil stocks not around all time highs should be shot. 

*HLX *- missed opportunity to take some profits in mid 50s because I was out on the turps.  

*KMN *- woof. Added more last week, will add again on break up, if that ever happens. 

*MAKO *- thinking of adding MAK with fe aeromagnetics being flown this month.

*LGL *- consolidating even though POG is flying - expecting pullback shortly. Will add more on likely gold correction.

*NCM *- failing at $34, needs a takeover rumour, or will fall back to $30 ish. Will add more on likely good correction.

*NWE *- consolidating above support, looks like it might move up again. Just holding. Target .38 ish. Oil due for pullback...


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## prawn_86

Do you trade NCM on a margin or CFD kennas? As 140% profit you would have been hodling for ages!


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## Sean K

I short term trade with CFDs but rarely hold long term. I buy with a price target and a stop and stick with that.

I first bought NCM at $12 in 2004 and have been buying and selling since.


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## Sean K

BMN approaching $4.00 now, after significant break. 

Damn! I didn't get the chance to pick up more on a pull back which I expected. 

My largest holding ever right now, but maybe the US will still be crunched to provide another opportunity.


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## vishalt

you must be making a killing with NCM, im scared to touch gold lol


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## Sean K

Not as much as I would like. I've hardly added to my position since the breakout because I was waiting for the world to implode from the credit crunch. 

I suppose I could have bought in with a stop, but I'm thinking POGs got another couple of years to push higher until the USD recovers....(if recovers)

There's gotta be a POG correction soon, when I will add some more.


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## Sean K

Target from a break up is around 21 cents.


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## Sean K

I'm going to buy into any weakness now. Good opportunity today, and some more to follow perhaps. $3.50 looks like good support.


2 days later chart, see note below.


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## Sean K

Looks to be breaking down. Will add to position if it keeps tumbling... I expect the next support to be hit, but not sure if it will hold.


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## Sean K

Opened 4 sell contracts and have bought a couple back for a few $$ gain. Leaving 2 open for the moment for hedging. If overseas tanks tonight, may reopen a couple more sells.


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## prawn_86

I find that our market tends to gap down and then hold steady around that level if the DOW has a big sell off. 

Its the futures where the $ can be made as they tend to track the DOW when its open.


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## Sean K

Opened more sells on the index. Looks to be breaking down. If it recovers I expect LGL/NCM to save my bacon.


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## Sean K

Bought back some positions to make some beer money and now looking at longer term sells. 

I think 6450 is a a high possibilty, and if not, gold is paying for the rum..

If 6450 is cracked then 6200 looks good.


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## prawn_86




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## Sean K

I left one contract open without a stop. 120 points....LOL


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## Sean K

Is due for a spike, if history repeats, which it seems to have been doing the past few months...


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## Sean K

Tipped in for a few today. 

I see the struggle for RIO to provide some support for this, plus gold is just running and running away.

Not a short term trade for me but medium term investment. 

I'll probably just top up on pull back to support levels at $4.00 and $3.70, if it goes that way.


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## moneymajix

I would like to see more than 5c for EXM.
Had a dream last night that they had tonnes of gold!


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## Sean K

LOL. 5 cents will be a 25% ish gain. My plan would be to sell a few at that point, depending on news and the overall market. I'll probablly buy more on break through 4 cents. Not holding too many really. It's pretty spec for a spec!


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## Sean K

CUL dropped to .11 and finished at .115 breaking just out of that formation. Probably not on the cards now. Will review daily.


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## Sean K

Did spike up to 55 and I took the oportunity to take some profits. Ended up even for the day. I'd expect 40-45 ish to be support now and all things being equal, I'll be looking at topping back up on weakness. This still looks comparitively cheap with potential 30 - 100 Mt fe (HLX rights) in the AQA JV dirt. 

Locking in profits now is just being prudent. Trying not to let greed overwhelm me....

Still holding quite a packet.


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## Sean K

Reviewing this and while $3.50 might be support, looks better back between $3.00-3.25. Any market weekeness may take it back there, but at the moment is still nicely trending up. With TSX listing and updated JORC approaching, it _should _maintain support. Broker valuations are somewhere between $4.50-$5.50 ish, so still plenty of upside.

Reviewing the chart, looks like a good set up for another break up, all things being equal..

Chart above is the revised chart as at 10 Nov. Can't put it under here....


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## Sean K

> Reviewing the chart, looks like a good set up for another break up, all things being equal..




Good pick kennas. Back at $3.50 ish. LOL


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## Mirage2003

Hi, Kennas

I love oxr very much, but I sold it today at 4.23. At the end of the trading hour, I really wanted to buy it again at 4.04, but I hesitated. I am afraid I will miss its bullish performance, but the fundamentals  look quite gloomy. I am still struggling on whether to buy back or not. Can you share your thought with me? Thank you.

Best regards

Mirage


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## Sean K

Hi Mirage, I'm actually having second thoughts on OXR. I was anticipating the fallout from the BHP/RIO thing to provide more support than it has. I might drop out of it myself now as gold looks to going through it's correction finally. Support is at $790 ish and $760 ish for mine. Maybe back in then. Will see what unfolds overnight and tomorrow morning..


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## Sean K

CUL dropping out of the zone. Looks like the set ups failed. 

12 Nov chart attached above.


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## Sean K

CBH has underperformed the past year due to problems at Endeavour, which has subsequently come back to full production, but I think the market hasn't come around to understand they're back on deck.

Market consenses 12 month targets range between 80c and $1.00, which were promulgated around Christmas last year. Sitting now at about 57 cents it looks like a monty for a 20% gain in the next few months.

One thing NOT factored into anyone's valuations is exploration at Constance Range which BHP had a non JORC resource of 250Mt at 52% fe. I think CBH are drilling as we speak to take it to JORC and any good ann from this might be the impetus to allow it to run. 

Chart wise, it's consolidated really well above 50 cents support, and looks to be forming a descending triangle which if breaks up, could take it to 80 cents and what is resistance. 

Not holding yet, but almost.


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## Sean K

Bought a few more this morn, ave $3.50.


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## Mirage2003

Thanks, Kennas

I will keep watching it, and pick some good position to top up again.  

Regards

Mirage


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## Mirage2003

bmn performs very well today


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## Sean K

Good support around 45 developing, on reduced volume once again, which paints a good picture. Wedge forming in an upward trend, which should lead to break up...


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## Sean K

I've been waiting for months for this to break up and it's boring me to tears now. 

The Puffin mis/dis/puff/information is not want I want to hear from a company.

They may have other projects but have been running on the puffin upside IMO. 

Out until there's some clarity.


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## Sean K

Sold OXR.

Not responding to the BHP hype.

Looking for something else to park some $$.


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## doctorj

I agree that increased watercut/reduced flow rate at Puffin is worrying.  Not sure why, or if punters can expect a 3x increase in production.  Also, I'm not sure what it means for the profitability of the project if they can't increase production.

Don't write off NWE just yet though.  Its worth keeping an eye on for their North Sea drilling.


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## Sean K

Since last update:

BMN - Bought a few more around $3.50. Might be too heavy on these now. 
EXM - steady, will add on clear break through 4.
HLX - Sold 1/3 at .535, thinking about buying more since it's held up so well.
JMS - Added ave .25
KMN - Grrrrrr, whooof, grrrrooof!
LGL - Steady
NCM - Steady, might add to this on likely correction.
NWE - Sold all for 10% profit.
OXR - Bought and sold for 3% loss.

Watching CBH for break through 60/65. Or, may just stick to trying to find a decent spec...


----------



## Sean K

Looks like wave C down now, could find itself to 760. Hopefully not a 5 wave down...


----------



## Sean K

I bought some JMS thinking the current fe hype will spill over to it in the short term while Brockman's being drilled. 

Their other fe projects also have some potential which has been overlooked. MC under $40m is a bit rude I think and I expect a re-rating to $50m ++ at which time I'mm take some off the table. Could run to $100m on a peer comparison as id in the thread.


----------



## doctorj

NWE getting smashed down to 23


----------



## Sean K

Made a bold decision this am and bought more BMN around $3.45 after the open. 

Not sure why it was canned at the open, down 8% plus, but looked like an opportunity to me. 

Theyll come out with bad news now.


----------



## Sean K

21 cents.



> 1030 [Dow Jones] AED Oil (AED.AU) continues to tumble in the wake of production disappointment at Puffin NE. Project has encountered water earlier than expected and initial production below expectations. AED now talking about production of 20,000 barrels a day being achievable, where previously had been expecting peak output of 30,000. AED stock has benefited from its sole focus on the Puffin oil project being a pure oil play with exposure to rising prices; now experiencing flipside of its total dependence on Puffin with any disappointment hitting shares. (APW)




Saved my arese a few $$$


----------



## Sean K

Damn ETrade did a dodgy with me on this buy. Not sure how. 

I had an order in for few@ market which was about $3.40 (didn't have power etrade at the time, was in an internet cafe in Bolivia) and put it to market and the system accepted the bid. Then, a few minutes later I checked and the buy wasn't processed for some reason, and the stock had gone up to $3.50. So, I went into the order, which was sitting there, and amended it to buy 'at market', which it accepted. 

So, I thought I had bought XX at whatever market was. Next day, go into my account, and I have bought another XX! Double what I was after. 

WTF E Trade!!! Glad it didn't crash...


----------



## So_Cynical

so u like specys hey...the only stock we have in 
common is LGL.

I found a specy the other day...multiple directors buying, and a new drilling program started in November...they hold alot of good Ground in Ghana.

Value to at 0.180 http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...s.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=AZM

What do u reacon?


----------



## Sean K

Yes, I like specs. It's where all the big money is made. And lost...

I have managed funds that buy blue chips, why would I bother? 

I'm even thinking of cashing in LGL and NCM to concentrate on the undervalued potential multibaggers atm.

Will check out Azumah. Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

A friend sent me the GMP analyst report from Canada which is another positive report for BMN.

Their final pluck for tonnage is between 150-200Mt, but only containing 70-100 m lbs U. However, they're using the same grade for that calculation. 



> Overall, we believe that these two resource expansions could result in a deposit with roughly 150 million to 200 million tonnes of ore, which is roughly 2.7 to 3.6 times the size of the interim resource. Using a similar grade, this may result in an in situ uranium total of 70 million to 100 million pounds of U3O8. Although this would be a very large resource expansion, intercepts to date have encountered consistent uranium grades over very wide interceptions.




Good to see them identify the potential at Goanikontes, but not sure if they put this in the valuation.



> EXPLORATION POTENTIAL
> Namibia: Goanikontes (80%)
> 
> The current resource at Goanikontes is contained within a deposit called Goanikontes Anomaly A. It is important to note that Anomaly A is only one of the areas within the Goanikontes property (EPL3345) where Bannerman has encountered significant interceptions of wide mineralization. As marked at the bottom of the following map, Anomoly A sits on the western edge of a formation called the Palmenhorst Dome.
> 
> Bannerman has identified Onkelo, just north of Anomoly A, where historic drilling by Elf Aquitaine in 1976-78 intersected 60 metres at 269 ppm U3O8 and 28 metres at 423 ppm.
> 
> The company has also identified Ompo, which is on the eastern edge of the Palmenhorst Dome. Ompo has a concentration of outcropping alaskites with the highest aerial radiometric anomaly in the company’s data.
> 
> Ombuga and Ombepo are to the north near the Rossingburg Dome. In this area, the company noted a historic drill hole from Rio Tinto from the 1970s that returned 57.2 metres of 230 ppm U3O8. These intersections highlight the potential for deposits beyond Anomaly A.
> 
> Historic results from these areas have shown similarities in grade across wide mineralized intervals. In order to test these targets, Bannerman has planned an exploration budget of roughly A$6 million which is expected to continue for the next 8 years.




Valuation:



> Enterprise Value per Pound of U3O8
> 
> If we assume the resources at Goanikontes increase to 100 million pounds (100% basis), then Bannerman would be trading at roughly $4/lb, which is considerably lower than the peer group average of $12/lb and under the current producer average of $13/lb. Although the EV per pound of valuation technique is not the most sophisticated, to a certain degree uranium stocks have traded on this basis in this cycle. Using this metric, we see considerable upside for Bannerman’s share price.





The biggest risk they see, as most of us would, is the chance of a large scale nuclear accident, that would dint the entire sector.

Bloody hell I hope there's not a nuclear disaster in the next little while!


----------



## moneymajix

Have you any thoughts on Mt Ida (iron ore) which is one of the JMS projects?


----------



## Sean K

Golly, interesting last 2 days for JMS holders. Breaking 28, and running up to 35 I thought we were in for a multibagger. 

Mt Ida to Mt Mason looks to have strong potential to hold additional deposits of hematite. I haven't been able to find a decent map showing the 2 locations and the BIF running between them. If you find one let me know!

I'm in 2 minds about holding this now. Talbot selling smells fishy. Just not sure what kind of fish.


----------



## doctorj

I'm not sure its too much to get worried about.  The pull back appeared to be a lot of panic selling - mid sized parcels smashing the bid at any price.  Looking at the 15 minute chart (will post tonight) it fits that a lot of the volume was from traders that jumped in on that shark bar friday morning.  My immediate thought was T+3 traders and other guys that bought more than they could probably afford on the back of some pretty vicious ramping over at HC.

Talbot selling, in itself isn't such a great concern - he's not in the same league as a Twiggy or Kiernan IMHO.  The only drama is that if he is really 'the smart money' maybe there's something coming we don't know about.  

What is reassuring, the new board seem to be positive and engaged.  The departing chairman had a bit of a sook in his address and had the opportunity to whinge about the companies prospects, but instead decided to have a crack at the shareholders.  I'm not convinced there's much more to be worried about - perhaps a falling out between Talbot and the new board?


----------



## prawn_86

As someone mentioned on the JMS thread. If the upcoming drill results are bad, surely there will be a massive case for insider trading. Talbot is already pretty shady when it comes to grey areas of the law.


----------



## moneymajix

I was initially concerned about Talbot Group selling but still holding over 6 million. I trust there won't be an more sales, any time soon.
Fingers crossed.

I think Mt Ida might be very interesting.

Hasn't been the easiest stock to hold.

Patience!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Over the past two trading days:

*EXM *- doubled up on break through 3.8.
*KMN *- topped up on weakness (disastrous weakness ) in the lead up to maiden JORC at Kalman before the end of the year. Something must be up here, but I'm emotionally attached now. 
*JMS *- sold out completely till the dust settles.
*MAKO *- Bought more options on weakness after the U assays from Tassie which were practically dirt. I have more U ppm in my shorts! I'm in it for the Tin, Iron and Phosphate potential. MC of $15m is criminal for the potential.


----------



## Sean K

Gold going through the much needed correction to sustain the healthy uptrend. Is hitting $780 support and I would be happy with it proving up here. Alternatively, breaking through and a double top may be proven and I have a target of $740. Whatever the case, I am still long term very bullish on gold and with the Fed near certain to drop rates again this month, gold should be well supported again. The size of the cut will determine the support. Oil and geopolitics will also obviously influence the price, and we probably need a perfect storm in all three for POG to be pushing through all time highs. 

So, while there still maybe some short term weakness, I'm holding onto LGL and NCM and am going to top up a few of each. 

(still waiting for them both to be taken over as well )


----------



## Sean K

Topped up yesterday at 39 cents.

I have the feeling that there is a large holder selling down for some reason which is a bit disconcerting, but I don't believe the funnymentals and potential has changed. 

Many millions of tons of hematite will send this to $1.00 plus once the potential is confirmed.


----------



## Sean K

Bought more on the open today too. The capital raising looks positive although I have seen stocks trade under the raising price for some time. On the sum of it though, big players taking chunks looks good to me.


----------



## Sean K

LOL. Up 22%, back at 49. 

Hopefully a strong finish.


----------



## Sean K

Finished at 49.5. Whoohoooo.


----------



## moneymajix

Congrats


----------



## Sean K

Awesome ann from BMN regarding recent drilling. The anticipated 100m lbs in the next estimate needs to be considerably revised I think. Looking at minimum 100m with 120m possible, with the final resource to 400m plus looking at 150m +. Will be one of the biggest depositis in the world, and most importantly, the grades are way up!

KMN continues to break up, and I bought a few more on the close last night and open this morning.


----------



## Sean K

I've bought EXM at 3.3, 3.4, 3.6, and 4.2. 

Yesterday's big white candle looks sensational, when 4 ish was looking like really tough resistance. 

I expect heavy buying on the open today and then a pull back while traders take some profits. Wouldn't be surprised to see 100m volume again. 

I may pick up some more, depending on todays action. Picking some more up between 4 - 4.5 would be nice, but not sure how it'll run...

MC $60m and MC to oz au $112, makes it start to look pricey on it's current resource, so I'll be looking at some profit taking shortly, maybe around the 5c mark. Might even get there this morning...


----------



## Sean K

Over the past week:


Topped up *BMN *on awesome drilling results. 
Topped up *HLX *on bizaar knee jerk sell off to...nothing  Was a great opportunity taken.
Topped up *KMN *on fantastic breakout from long term downtrend/descending triangle.

Notes:


Almost shorted *NCM *on potential breakdown double top, but it's held up.
Holding *LGL *and *NCM *as core long term gold holdings. 
Watching *gold *for break up or down from coil. Will buy or sell accordingly.
Running profit on *BMN *has reduced quite a bit because of the new shares I've bought in the $3.00s.
*KMN *is in the black at last!!!
*MAK *just floating about aimlessly until the EM survey of West Southdown is released I think.
Watching *EXM *to top up more. Hoping to get some around 4.1.
Watching *JMS *for re-entry. Looks like it found a bottom at 21 ish and I missed it, but I'm still not confident after the Talbot sell down.
Trying not to buy to much more as I've delved about $80K into the Margin Loan to top up positions. I think Santa Rally will be a good opportunity to take some profits shortly.
Holding current *funds* long term (20 year investments)


----------



## Gurgler

Thanks for being so generous as to allow us to look over your shoulder. Very educational to see how you evaluate stocks.

A question: have you any experience/opinion of GOLD - Gold Bullion Securities in terms of a way of investing in gold for the longer term.

Couldn't attach chart - will email.


----------



## Sean K

Hi Gurgler, No haven't been there. Just investing in stocks and trading Gold through IG Markets. 'Great Pig' does invest in GOLD though and I think he assumes it pretty much moves with POG. Perhaps you could send him a PM, or post in the Gold thread to get some feedback? Cheers, kennas


----------



## Sean K

LGL has been punished dramatically for a 7% downgrade in gold production this year due to lower grades.

I don't think I've EVER seen them bring out an upgrade and I've held this for 10 years.  LOL

Anyway, topped up a few at $3.53 on what I think is a kneejerk. Should be technical support around the previous sticking point ar 3.60 ish.


----------



## So_Cynical

Ive only held for 6 months..and have to agree, the usual over reaction presents a buying op...cept ive got no money.


----------



## Sean K

Bought more KMN this morning at 70.5 equiv. 10% sell off on the poor market performance is an opportunity IMO.  I think longer term picking this up under a MC under $500m is a good opportunity.


----------



## Sean K

Topped up a few yesterday which was premature and bought some more this morning. Hope the knife isn't too sharp. 


PS, looks like $3.25 may be support but I wouldn't discount further weakness along with the rest of the market. Some more risk looks to being factored in now.

I've got no idea how much further the XAO could go, but I do know that _long term _ the market goes UP! 

On this chart, if the market does go lower and BMN push through $3.25, then the last peaks could be a double top and it could possibly be headed to the target which is also good support.


----------



## Sean K

Hooly dooly, got punished for the in line with market expectations JORC at Kalman. Bashed back to under 60. Ouch, ouch, ouch. Back in the red on KMN. I'm re-evaluating Kalman now, it's about a quarter of what I was expecting it to have the potential for.


----------



## Sean K

Whooohooo!!! 

Bloody hell, lucky I have these in the portfolio and have added on weakness. NCM up 10% yesty on POG gains and rumours of that takeover being mooted for the past 38 years.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out. 

In hinesight I wish I had have added more than I did to these but I am still into the margin loan so best to play a bit safer in this environment I suppose.


----------



## Sean K

Dear Dudley,

I have just a few points regarding your communication with the market.

1. Why have you continuously advised the market that San Anton has a JORC resource of 10.19 m oz au equiv only to have the scoping study come out with an in pit resource of only 8.5 m oz au equiv?

2. Why have you advised the market that the initial JORC for Kalman would be based on 1000m strike length to a drilling depth of 700m and a density factor of 2.5 only to produce a JORC obviously based on much much different numbers? By your announcements these figures should produce
1000 x 700 x 90 x 2.5 = 175Mt. Not 49.7Mt....

3. Why have you advised over the past 6 months that you were analysing past results at Kalman for Rhenium and other metals but have only been able to release a handful of Re lab results?

4. What happened to Kalman being a polymetallic deposit containing high grades of U3O8? There in NO U mentioned in the intial JORC....

5. Why have you continued to advise the market that Mt Philp is a haematite deposit of a strike length of 4km when you have not released any drilling results for this deposit?

6. Why have you advised the market that additional drill rigs would be on site at Mt Isa to further explore the region and drill out Kalman, only to have them not appear? I would be very interested to know if the diamond rig you promised to be on deck in Dec 07 actually turned up and is drilling as promised?

7. Where are the 'pending' assay results from extention drilling at S d G advised in the Sep 07 Qtly? 

8. Where are the assays advised to be pending from regional exploration at San Anton advised in the June 07 Qtly?

You seem to be clearly misinforming the market on the ongoings of your company and I think ASIC would be well interested in these short commings.

Yours sincerely,
kennas


----------



## Sean K

Looks to be heading back to the 3.25 support and double top territory. With the RIO rumours of taking Exemplar I doubt it, but market girations could take it down.


----------



## Sean K

I've tipped this in the 2008 comp run by Yogi, pretty much based solely on it's low, low, market cap, and a piece of ground that has some Mo, Re and U on it. 

They've recently had some dramas with their directors and two were canned. Seems these two (geos) didn't think they should continue to drill for Moly while the others (punters) seem to think they should. Weight of numbers went with the punters. 

This doesn't sound like a very good basis for a stock pick, but just going on the tight share registry and low shares on offer, any good results at Minnie Springs could make this move considerably.

I'm currently looking into it in more detail and waiting for clearer direction in the markets before taking a punt. And at this stage, it clearly would be a punt!


----------



## Sean K

Take 10% of that as an indicative value to their sp and that's a MC of $5.6b on one of their projects.

Current MC about $20m.

A little bit of upside to go perhaps. 

(wish I was holding more options)


----------



## Sean K

Oppies up 177%.

he, he, he, he, he, he

Will probably gap up tomorrow and then pump and dump HC traders will take it down.....aaarrrgggghhh!


----------



## Sean K

With this jittery market I've decided to sell a few *HLX *and cashed in all *EXM*. 

Not saying either of those won't keep running it's just that I'm about $60K into the margin loan at the moment, which in the scheme of things isn't much, but I'm wanting to clear the loan completely over the coming weeks to remain debt free during the US recession, and be ready for opportunites. 

Not sure which of the stocks I'm going to sell down. I'm way overweight *BMN *so I might take a few there. If *KMN *rallies (doubtful) I might take a few off there too. Currently down 20% on that woofer but it's very hard for me to see 50 ish cents broken on a peer comparison just on San Anton project.

Might take some *MAKO *off the table, but after confirming $56b IGV in the Rock Phos, the sp could go anywhere...

Stocks I probably won't take profits on atm are *LGL *and *NCM *as I am pretty sure the US is going to continue to lower rates further tanking the USD even further. If anything, I'd like to free up cash to buy more of these on dips without using the ML.


----------



## Sean K

Just as I suspected, bloody HC pump and dumpers!!!!!!

Oppies went up another 30-40% on the open and I had something else on. Might have considered taking some profits if I had have been watching, but when I got to the screen they were only up 20%. So, just left them. Finished up 15%, over 190% in 2 days. Gotta be happy with that. Having said that, I expect more profit taking, but this could be the basis for a significant rerating while the Phos Project details get assimilated.


----------



## Sean K

MAKO up 20% this am on a blood soaked day, so good opportunity to take 1/3 off the table. 

The market is pretty scary at the moment. Need to clear the Margin Loan. If wasn't for that, would be holding way long.


----------



## Sean K

...almost sell everything and wait for a 'bottom'...

Why do I keep hearing 'it's time in the market, not timing', ringing in my ears?

Is Buffett buying or selling I wonder?

Is it time to start using the margin loan to pick up some mum and dad blue chips? 

Time to find some managed funds who's unit prices have come way off?

Or, just hybernate for a few months?

Greed and fear and greed and fear....

Aaaaagggghhhhhh!!!!!!!!!


----------



## moneymajix

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=80C18AD8-1871-E587-E1F4D6656A3268DF


----------



## Sean K

There's a probability of this going to $2.50 on the technicals, but getting this again under $3.00 is too good an opportunity IMO.

On the balance of the facts I have this should be worth $1b + going into production on peer comparisons and the scoping study.


----------



## Sean K

I've picked up a few NSL on the YT factor.

This is ultra spec so could go anywhere.

After taking some off the table with HLX and EXM I'm still drawn down a bit on the ML, but I'm now down to using 15% of the LVR, so all's cool. Actually, in a good position to take advantage of any relief rally.

Hopefully NSL come out with some surprises to the upside like additional project acquisitions...


----------



## Sean K

Chart looks a bit lopsided now since the fantastic performance of MAK. Only concern is KMN breaking significant support around 55 and I'm down 25%. Need to make a decision there. Looks like a tax loss for this year to me.

Managed funds are off about 10% from highs, just in front of market. Bloody Japan fund has been a killer. The past 2 years there been all this talk about the reemergence of Japan, but it's just been tanking.  

In the past week:

Sold a third HLX at about 20% gain
Sold all EXM on about 5 % gain
Sold a third MAKO for 300% gain, now free carried on 500% gains at the minute.  
Topped up BMN under $3.00
Bought NSL average $0.026

This week:

Looking at more BMN if market steadies and bounces off 5650 as I expect. This may equate to a bounce on BMN from the $2.50-2.75 area. Next resource upgrade due very shortly which will probably mean another sell off and depending on the results may be another opportunity. I'm expecting 100m lbs at 240 ish ppm. Anything over that and I'll buy more.
Trying to take some off KMN on strength but it's just a dog and keeps going down. Woof!
Looking at just a few % gain on NSL before I take some off. (if it goes up!)
MAK looks like it might be in the process of a massive rerating on it's Rock Phos potential. If the Flourite PFS comes out with 50Mt in the Qtly, would not be surprised for another kick! Happy to sit back on my holding there.
Where the hell is that NCM and LGL takeover!!!


----------



## Sean K




----------



## Sean K

Bought more around $2.32.

eeeeek!!!!


----------



## Sean K

I am not sure if this can be sustained and it may be a dead cat. Taking the opportunity to take some off the table. I might pay for it later, I just don't know where the world economy is going...

I sold a few of these yesterday which in retrospect was idiocy, but who was to know the Fed was going to pull a rabit out of the hat?

Sold:
MAKO
NSL
HLX
KMN

Holding:
BMN
NCM
LGL

That's all...

I may have missed an awesome opportunity to buy more yesterday and keep holding long term, but my heart just can't take it! LOL


----------



## Sean K

The Fed is going to lower rates again I think, maybe just 25 points, but this is going to give gold plenty of support which I hope flows through to NCM and LGL. 

This bounce may be a dead cat, but hopefully the worst smashings have taken place and we can start moving sideways for a bit.

Good opportunity for a takeover Barrick!

I'll take $50 a share, thanks! LOL


----------



## MR.

These are not easy times for owning shares. Europe once again is falling and the price is reflecting that it is looking for some support from the US again.

Although I sold my last stock on the asx more than a month ago I still lost yesterday. I sold my Japanese Platinum shares which I bought at 2.51 and sold for 1.799 yesterday. I was expecting the yen to strengthen last night to equal out the loss in the Japanese stocks yesterday. But it didn't happen. oops. Massive loss. 

I wonder if the so call carry trade was mainly used to invest directly into the Japanese share market. It looks that way. Or is it a matter of refinancing.
Although the Japanese market appears safer than most I can't see why it wouldn't follow the other markets down. I should have asked myself "how much further can it possibly fall?" 20 - 25% Will look at buying back in if it drops a further 20%.

Was today a suckers bounce? 
Kennas today was a good time to have sold.


----------



## Sean K

Golly, hit a bottom of about $2.25 after the sell off that started at $4.10. Bought more at $2.30.

eeeeek


----------



## Sean K

Maybe I sold at the bottom too. 

LOL


----------



## Sean K

I bought back into MAKO at 27 a couple days ago, as I think the Rock Phos project has some longer term legs and will underpin the price. 

I also anticipate the Wolfram MOU is going to turn into a formal JV and the Tassie Tin/Tung project may turn into a money earner as well. 

Just bought 50k shares and will add on weakness at this point.

Market looks like it's pretty vulnerable. To say the least...


----------



## Sean K

Sold half BMN, the chart looks crap, and could well fall over into the poo pile if they have some bad news or the US has another hic up. 

If $2.25-50 holds up will be back in...


----------



## Sean K

Bought another 30K a few days ago at 26. Looks to be breaking up. Looking at developing a $50K stake in it on dips. Looks like it has legs...


----------



## Sean K

Well, been a while for a full breakdown but here goes.

*Sold*:
All managed funds into the bounce. I think we're going sideways for at least a year, and the money is better in the bank earning interest, or paying for beer.
MAKO. Sold all during the dead cat to save profits. Made about 700% profit. 
BMN. Sold half at $2.50 a while ago. At about 5% profit. It's looking increasingly sick, waiting for news (litigation to be squashed), or a turnaround on the chart to get back in. 

*Bought*:
MAKO. Regretted selling, and bought back in around 25 cents.
ROY. At average 25 cents. Drilling in March may provide interest. Iron is hot.
IRC. Sitting on trillions IGV, totally overlooked.
MOG. Spec oiler.

Looking at adding to the specs above if they look like they're going to run. 

Here's the current breakdown.


----------



## Gurgler

Hi Sean

Just a brief note to reassure you someone's reading!

I sold out of our MF last Aug before that big dip - not wisdom just a lucky break and similar thinking to yours. Not that I have displayed any great intuition since then. I eventually got into GOLD last week - when it dropped from $110 to $105, my most recent lapse in judgement - there have been so many!

I have to see it as building longer term experience - once I get over repeating mistakes, that is.

Anyhow thanks for ongoing postings and reflections.

Greg
BTW I gather you made it back to MLB for a while (missed you by a few weeks), but see you are back in Sth America.


----------



## Sean K

Geez, it's been a while, so updating this is maybe moot. It's only value is probably in real time and I've been away too much and been a slack ****.

Anyway, the past month or so:

Sold: 
A few MAKO at $1.50 to lock in profits. 

Bought: 
IRC @ .25. 
DMM @ .35 (on top of a bunch at .55 - neither announced)
BMN @ 1.80. (looks like a bottom was formed at 1.65, will buy more on break through 2 again)
AZM @ 0.12 and 0.105. Trying to pick up some more in the 9s, if the market allows.

Current positions below:


----------



## mu5hu

Hi Kennas,

Had a quick look at some of the stocks you bought in to. 
Say IRC, DMM and AZM. What attracts u to them? I had a look at their charts and they look like theres not much volume and less liquidity in them. and a bit flat. 

Nothing wrong it being flat since breakouts come from consolidating bits but they just don't seem very attractive to me atm. Just wanted to know your inside view of them.

Cheers. 
I enjoy reading your blog posts!!


----------



## Sean K

Some of the reasons are in the threads but generally:

IRC have trillions in IGV at Julia Creek in QLD with their Moly/Vanadium project and also have 11% of RWD and a big slice of RER. I think once they can confirm JC will be economic it will go on a little run. However, if it isn't, it'll crash probably. I have my suspicions as they (and their director M Ruane) have been investing a lot in RWD and RER for some reason.

DMM are just about to bring out an fe JORC in the Congo on their Mayoko Project. Just on part of it I believe, but should confirm their potential.

AZM have a nice JORC at Wa-Lawra in Ghana, at good grades, that is expanding, open pit, probably low capex and opex, potential for a big find.

But, overall, most importantly, all three are currently trading at very low prices comparatively to their peers, with market caps very low. They are all also going through a period of discovery which is when most stocks have their big run ups in prices. Once companies have their resources firmed up and go into BFS and development they usually slide.

All very risky!!!


----------



## mu5hu

Hey Kennas,

Have you bought any new shares or sold any of ur existings shares?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Hi mu5h, 

Bought more AZM @ 0.094, some STB @ 0.20, RER @ 0.05, and sold half the MOG @ 0.066 (bought at 0.14, ouch) 

I'm considering more BMN at these levels, and maybe a few more AZM if the break up from the 10c level is confirmed.

Will endeavour to update as I go. 

kennas


----------



## mu5hu

I don't know how yo do it kennas.

You've picked up stocks just before they moved up at least 10%..
how do u do it?? ahaha

ie IRC, AZM, STB

Id be happy with 10% but you of course do much better than that.!!


----------



## Sean K

And picked up MOG before it went down 60%! eeek!

AZM have bought at .12, .105, .094, so just a little up.

DMM in at .60 and .35, now .50 so a bit up.

ROY in at .26, now .22. 

Did well getting into IRC and STB before they started moving.

So, not doing that well!!!!

First buying MAK and MAKO at .15 and .07 respectively wasn't a bad move.


----------



## Sean K

*Action*:

Bought RER at .059, .051, and .051 last week. Has been justifiably punished for it's capital raising at a rediculous discount to upset major shareholder Ruane, from IRC and RWD. I anticipate Ruane getting the better of them and the company being rerated down the track. Has some potentially good resources discounted to its peers. If not, I will be issued with some very cheap shares due to the issue. Whatever the case this is a bit like going to the casino and putting money on black because red has come up so many times! 

Bought more STB at .21.

Sold half MOG at .066, bought @ .13, capital loss. Still holding a few and will get rid of them over the next week or so. 

Converting MAKO to ordinary shares this week.

*Considering*:

More STB if .25 is confirmed as support.

More BMN if the chart is telling me a bottom.

More AZM on a break through .15. 

Just a few more IRC on break through .42. Holding quite a few. 

Thinking about selling ROY, not happy with management's communication with the market, and starting to doubt their projects. 

*Situation*:


----------



## mu5hu

Hey Kennas,

What your opinion on the capital raising in RER? Do you think by giving out discounted shares, at 3c, that the SP will fall to that level? I haven't looked into capital raising and effects much yet but from your opinion, do you think it helps the SP or does it bring the SP down to the discounted price?
That question doesnt just apply to RER, but in general, does capital raising by giving cheaper shares reduce the SP to approx the discounted price?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

It ´s bad for the sp and it should trade down around these levels. This move is effectively a poison pill for Michael Ruane who I guess wants to gain control of the company along with his other co director at IRC. This is just a BS move by the company IMO and there ´s a chance that Ruane may get on the board and start making some moves. I ´ll be voting him in.


----------



## Sean K

Sold the rest of my MOG at 7.

Will buy more STB on Monday, if I am near a computer.

Bloody missed the jump in IRC as I am in the jungle!! aaaghh! Missed out on some $$ there. 

AZM has pulled back unfortunately, more consolidation...

BMN may consider if it breaks downward trend line around 1.75.


----------



## mu5hu

So in terms of RER, you think it must bounce back up at some point since its just had bad news after bad news?

What part of the jungle are ya in? haha


----------



## Sean K

I`m not sure how they`ll go, but on an MC to oz au comparison I think they are the lowest priced explorer with a JORC by a long long way. I`m gambling that Ruane gets hold of them and shakes them up a bit. Wouldn`t be surprised at a takeover offer either if IRC keep moving up how they are and get their finances sound.

In SE Venezuela now in an area called the Gran Sabana. Sort of like Africa without the animals.

Damn I`ve missed some opportunities because of this trip. 

Would have bought more IRC and STB during these breaks! 

Still not happy with ROYs management. They should have produced their own report on the GBG plans for the JV, but nope, just sat on their hands. Bloody hell it`s not that hard to ramp your own company!!!


----------



## JTLP

Kennas, whats with all the travelling to the exotic nations? What you do for work you lucky tiger?

Has this new potash theory (similar to the U theory) put you off the likes of STB? Or do you still see upside in them?

IRC back around 42 cents, you can still grab some (where is the wink!)


----------



## Sean K

Hi JTC,
I`m living in Peru and my wife manages a travel company that operates trips all around South America. I ´m currently doing some research for a new trip which goes from Belem at the mouth of the Amazon to Caracas, and a trip encompassing Venezuela. Believe me though when I say this is not a holiday. It`s bloody hard work. 
As far as `work`goes, I`ve been full time investing for 3 years. 
And travelling.


----------



## Sean K

I`ve had to sit on my hands for the past 3 weeks unfortunately, as I ´ve been on the road, water and air between The Brazilian Amazon and Caracas, Venezuela.

Have watched as *DMM *positively broken up and is still going. 
*BMN *hit a bottom and breaking through 1.75 very positive. Higher highs and lows, looks like bottoms in.
*STB *looking shakey. Nastey H&S forming up, hope 25 holds short term. 
*MAKO *at a discount to heads. Converting them when I get home. Hopefully $2.00 holds up but looks tenuous. Need some drill results and Moina FS to come through positively. Maybe Story Creek JV confirmed and some good results. Anticipate a decent sale of Franklin Iron will give them the equity to go through BFS and some of the capex for Wonarah.
*LGL *and *NCM *recovering beautifully. Couldn`t buy at what might be a bottom. 
*ROY *making mid term higher highs and lows looking OK.
*IRC *profit taking. Not sure where it`s going short term now. Need 42 to hold, or it`s looking poor short term. 

Missed on GCR and CVI obvious trades. 
Missed trading the gold rebound.
Missed possibly taking some profits on STB and IRC.
Miss my couch and remote.

Back  ´home ´tomorrow! 


PS, just added graphs correct as at 23 May with the inclusions on GBG, a few more *BMN*, and *MLM* - to be discussed later.  

Only losing 'investment' right now is *RER*, down 33%, but when I get the entitlement it will probably be down 10% or so. Even then, I'm very concerned about this knife grab, and am considering clearing the decks of it once I get the cheaper shares.


----------



## Sean K

Topped up a few *BMN *at 2.04.

*IRC *looking very shakey now. Missed opportunity to lock in good profits. If 35 doesn't hold it's going back to 30, at least, IMO.

*ROY *looks to be trying to break up, will probably take a few off the table on a break to .35.

*STB *holding above .25 is good, will top up a few on break up through .30.

Am taking up 1 for 1 entitlement offer with *RER *to double holding.


----------



## Sean K

Bought *GBG *yesterday afternoon. Looks to be breaking up from a pole and pennant, target 1.70 ish. Just a chart trade, will sell it if it fails.


----------



## mu5hu

Hey Kennas,

U previously sed STB was forming a H&S pattern. U believe its gone since it broke 30c?
did you top up more on more STB shares??


----------



## Sean K

The potential H&S may be invalidated. 25 holding was very positive, however a bit early to call. I will probably add to the position today, if 30 holds. Not many though, maybe 50K. The next phase for this technically, is for 30 to now firm as support. Until that is proven the break is precarious due to the continued selling pressure I described in the thread. So, what I would like to see today is either a gap up, or 30 to be tested, buyers support it, and it head above 32. 

But to be honest, I'm in no hurry, I've drained the cash to below my current acceptable levels due to some other opportunities, and I think we're in a bit of a generally negative down turn right now that could get worse depending on unanticipated bad news.


----------



## mu5hu

well 30c can't seem to hold today but it could stil head upwards this week. This week the market has had a negative sentiment so probably has reflected on the share price. 

Lets hope it holds 25c support and makes 30c its next support hey?

did you mean 50k units or 50k in dollar amounts?


----------



## Sean K

Started impressively but did it's usual sell off during the day. Disappointing, not sure what to make of that behaviour. I'll be happy too if .25 continues as support and the diagonal uptrend is also respected. Come on STB! break the 30 cent hoodoo!! LOL. Meant 50K units.


----------



## Sean K

Bought this off the chart at 1.35 with a target of about 1.70. Sold 1.68 this am for 24%. 

Will probably keep running to the moon now..LOL


----------



## Sean K

Sold this am at .33, bought at ave .255, for a 29% profit. 

Getting bored.


----------



## mu5hu

Those are good percentages in my books by then again looking at your stats, 25-29% is like short change hahaha
but nice work

i wanted to get into GBG but i got stingy and onli put in a price at 1.355 wen it opened at 1.40 and rocketed
SIGH

nice work tho


----------



## Sean K

I sold *GBG *and *ROY *yesterday as planned. 

*GBG *was simply a chart trade, not sure fundamentally where it could go. I might look at it in more detail, but I'm more interested in small caps at the moment searching for the alusive multibagger.

As far as the other stocks go, I'm still holding *LGL *and *NCM *effectively as a hedge to the current financial crisis. If it gets any worse I'd expect gold to be supported and these two hold up OK. On the other hand, could gold have peaked?

*AZM *is progressing well, I'm just waiting for it to be rerated for it's gold value. I'm waiting on results and chart action to make a decision of buy/sell plans. 

*MAKO *has been shot to pieces recently. I'm converting the oppies to heads next week. I think this is just a correction for MAK and once it firms up plans for Wonarah etc, it should have an MC around the $1b as a rough pluck, pending RP prices.

I've taken up the full entitelment to *RER*, but will probably sell them to clear the decks. I think I was pissed when I bought them. 

No change in my thoughts on the others. 

I haven't got my eye on buying anything else at the minute, except a few more *STB *on a clear break through 30. 

I've added another chart here with my closed trades so overall P&L is recorded.


----------



## Sean K

Can't believe I've done this, but I've bought a few KMN this am as they hit what I think is their 'bottom'.

More like catching a falling knife.

Just bought 50K, because it could go to zero. Will add, if there's a bottom confirmed. Or jump ship if it breaks 20.


----------



## Sean K

And it's been dumped by one seller like crazy. Think I'm going to stand aside again....


----------



## Sean K

Discovered that the selling was Opes shares. All cleared now. Still in...eeeek!!


----------



## Sean K

Having done some more research into this company, I'll be topping up a few on Monday I feel. Looks very undervalued.


----------



## Sean K

Just thought I'd update this chart as I've added in KMN. 

I've also added in open trade P&L, closed trade P&L and overall running P&L since I started graphing the trades in here.  

Work in progress. 

Will find a way to keep track of these investments somehow with buy and sell prices...


----------



## JTLP

Hi Kennas,

Did you manage to grab any MLM today?

It's a bit of a funny one...getting sold in such weird parcels. Nice rebound towards the end of the day though, hopefully we can see some upward appreciation. 60 cents looking big though.


----------



## Sean K

Yep, I doubled my holding at ave .535.


----------



## Sean K

And now I'm going to unload them as best I can. I think they should be inviting Ruane on board, not dishing him, so I see it as a bit of a negative distraction which could hurt the sp for some time. Still way undervalued on an MC to oz au perspective even though the oz are distributed over several deposits. 

Much prefer AZM for an undervalued spec gold play with potential and will probably buy more once they look to be going up. Maybe making a floor around 12, instead of 10 will be first signs of that. Charts a bit choppy to make a decent call on it though.


----------



## mu5hu

Do the entitlements for RER get received by shareholders all on the same day?


----------



## Sean K

You would expect so. Mine just popped into the account on line.


----------



## Sean K

*BMN *and *STB *both look to be breaking significantly up. Sentiment looks to have changed. 

Just holding *BMN *for the minute, happy with holdings.

Was looking at topping up *STB *on break through 30, and depending open tomorrow may do so.  

*DMM *profit taking I think, nothing sinister. May be an opportunity to pick up a few more on any further weakness. Unless the SS says there's too much silicon...eeek!


----------



## Miner

Do you have any holding in GDR or GCR and what your analyst say ?

Regards


----------



## Sean K

Haven't looked at GDR. Will check. 

I was going to trade GCR but at the time of the run I was in the middle of Venezuela. When I looked at it, I only thought it was good for a short term trade as I do not like the management. I held them some time ago and they were 'committed' to Copper Hill and sold everything. Then they jumped on the U bandwagon, and then sold off most of the RP project just when it was taking off. WTF!! Idiots!


----------



## jeffTH

Hi Kennas
I notice you hold MAKO and enquire whether you have any thoughts on POZ IPO (Phosphate Australia)?  50M shares @ $0.20 closing 23/6/08.  Chairman is Jim Richards (resigned UMC Oct 07) and Tech Director is Lisa Wells (Ex Exploration Mgr of UMC).  Seems to me that as UMC was going great guns that CEO and Exp Mgr wouldn't jump ship for nothing!  Considering MAK jump, IPL price and price of phosphate that POZ may well come on to the market at a good premium.
Would value your thoughts....


----------



## jeffTH

Hi Kennas
I notice you hold MAKO and enquire whether you have any thoughts on POZ IPO (Phosphate Australia)?  50M shares @ $0.20 closing 23/6/08.  Chairman is Jim Richards (resigned UMC Oct 07) and Tech Director is Lisa Wells (Ex Exploration Mgr of UMC).  Seems to me that as UMC was going great guns that CEO and Exp Mgr wouldn't jump ship for nothing!  Considering MAK jump, IPL price and price of phosphate that POZ may well come on to the market at a good premium.
Would value your thoughts....


----------



## Sean K

No, haven't seen it, but will have a look. Cheers!!


----------



## Sean K

Bought a few more STB at 36.


----------



## Sean K

Another crap close on STB. grrrrrrrr.

I'll throw a party if it ever finishes on a high.

Still, break through 30 looking good.


----------



## Miner

Thanks for your reply on GDR
I was more looking into project prospect and purchase by MIN people
However I did not know about shonky management in GDR
Probably shoudl watch it carefully


----------



## Sean K

Have payed for the excise of MAKO and await the options to be transformed into ordinary shares.

Been buying too many things lately due to opportunities and am thinking of selling some non performers to get into a bit more cash.

Been holding LGL and NCM for some time and kepping them as a hedge to world apocolypse but may sell some of both to get back into some cash. Both have come off quite a bit but don't seem to be going anywhere really. I've been waiting for a takeover which hasn't eventuated, and now LGL has bought EQI there's less chance IMO of that getting an offer. NCM presentation was very bullish a couple of days ago, so maybe LGL needs to go.

It'll get a $5 offer from Newmont then....


----------



## Sean K

MLM approaching 60 again, but there's quite a bit of resistance there. I'm going to be patient and wait to see how it goes here before adding any more.


----------



## Sean K

There is some really obvious capping going on with this at 60 cents. Like so obvious! 2 orders for 150,000 and one for 552,000.

I mean, come on!!!!

If you want to sell $260K of a spec stock you do NOT put it out there like that!

Aaaagggghhhhhhh!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Cripes, glad I didn't sell goldies. 

They will be the only thing close to green next Tuesday I think 

eeeeekkk!!!


----------



## JTLP

Haha I agree Kennas. It's funny watching it sit there.

But what are they capping for? Are there any +ve ann's in the not so distant future?

A nice close on friday though


----------



## Sean K

JTC, could be to do with the Coal IPO - MetroCoal Ltd. There may be an entitlement for current holders. One of the reasons I am in it.


----------



## Sean K

I've just started to look at these as an undervalued spec. Not sure if I'll buy any yet but looks like they could have an interesting iron project emerging in SA which could be a little surprise to the market. 

Very tight capital structure with just 60m shares and options and key shareholders including Lihir (13%), Avoca (11%), and Lion (4%). Directors hold 17%. Currently at .35 fo mc just about $20m. Means it should move fast on any success.

My main interest is in the spec fe project, Cowell, which looks like it might be an extension of Mt Middleback Ranges which has produced over 200Mt @ 60% +. They plan on first pass drilling in the Sep quarter.

Really spec at the moment and need to look into them a bit more.


----------



## JTLP

Ahh yes! Hopefully it will be some free entitlements.

Do you think? Or will we be paying up for them?


----------



## Sean K

There may be an entitlement, but we'll have to pay I'm sure. I should have rung the company prior to this to ask, but will do so tonight. There is also the Cape Alumina Bauxite IPO (MLM 40%) which should be happing in the next couple of months, that may be offered to current holders too.


----------



## JTLP

How will these spin offs affect MLM? Do they still incorporate the same income into the one business? (i.e. subsidiary).

You got a spare 600k kennas...lets move that wall!


----------



## Sean K

> And now I'm going to unload them as best I can.



Sold out the past 2 days for a 1% gain. 

They'll probably jump back to 10 cents now! 

As I've said in other places I've been buying too many things recently and want to be in about 30% cash. Sitting about 15% now, so need to take some money off the table here and there. Should have done that with MAKO at $2.50...eeeek!

Need to have a good think about what I should peel off, I like them all at the moment.


----------



## Sean K

Someone still wants to get out. About 600k parcel destroyed a lot of the buy depth.

Been dipping it's head under 20 the past few days and holding on by the skin of it's teeth.

If I believed in the fundamentals that much I suppose I'd buy more, but I am doubting the company due to the negative price action.

Could be going to go t1ts up, or it's an incredible buying opportunity.

hmmmmmm.


----------



## Sean K

These guys are still been overlooked.

MC to oz au about $15. 

This does not factor in the drilling at Bekpong and the initial JORC they plan to deliver in July. If they even have another 100K oz in that ground, then it's rediculously cheap. If they attain their aimed 1m oz au, at current prices that's puts them on $7 an oz. Insane. 

Overlooked because it's in Ghana (not the great area) and there's a few goldies with spades about. But on a comparison with all those, about half their value.

I'm turning my RER sale into more AZM.


----------



## Miner

Hi Sean

Great blog

AZM presentation has really been great
I noticed in their presentation the only company having lesser cost than AZM is Castle Minerals.

 Their price is 33 cents and the name of their company secretary is Dennis Wilkins – Company Secretary.
 It is the same name of AZM secretary. 

Sheer coincidence or is he serving both the companies means great positive alliance

What do you say ?

Do they belong to same group ?

Regards


----------



## Miner

I am sure you know it but I am excited to see that M Ivey is the largest shareholder in CDT also in the board of AZM

Great synergy 

Regards


----------



## Sean K

Interesting links there. However, I'm not sure about M Ivey, and it was one thing I was not sure about with AZM: The seed funding and personnel. I was a Croesus stock holder. 

Not sure about a tie up. Maybe. AZM have stated they will seek a partner, but probably not a junior. I note CDT's Wa prospect is along strike of Kunche though. 

Interesting iron ore prospect. 150Mt pre JORC at 43-56%. hmmmmm. That's flying under the radar I think. 

16m mc. Not much...


----------



## Sean K

LOL, up to 5c. But, the cash went to AZM which looks like it may be breaking up from 13. Too early to tell though.


----------



## Sean K

I sold half IRC the past 2 days at .39 for a 50% profit. 

I still think they have huge potential, I'm just getting some more cash together right now, and/or rebalancing my holdings. 

It looks to have found a short term floor at 35, but 40s formed up as some resistance. 

Damn, wish I had have been on line when it shot to 50, I certainly would have taken half off then, so I've missed 20% on the trade. 

Will revisit when the market settles a bit.


----------



## Sean K

Gold going through an inevitable correction, but how far who knows. I'm expecting $850-60 support to hold.

On the other hand, has gold peaked? Will the US start raising rates and credit issues subside?

Or, will oil run to $200+, international geopolitics get worse, the US cut rates again, forcing the USD into melt down.

The former is probably more likely.

However, I've unfortunately seen LGL and NCM get smashed the past 2 months. Both off considerably, and I have a pile of each being held for years. eeeeek!! It's certainly put a dent in the account. 

I've been holding as a hedge to the market turmoil expecting the US to impload and gold to go $1000 ++ for some time, but the nerves are stretched. 

Perhaps the money should sit on cash for a bit and/or await other opportunities to arrise?

I'm thinking it may be time to sell, and have the cash for the sunny days ahead.



AND WHERE THE FOOCK IS THE TAKEOVER FOR EITHER OF THESE THAT I'VE BEEN WAITING FOR FOR 4 YEARS!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Tried to pick a few more up the last 2 days but the stock ran away from me. Good, and bad. I was hoping to add another 50% to the position, before it closed on 15.

Chart wise it's showing a great rounded bottom, and starting to form a cup. Would be nice if it makes it way to the left hand lip around 22/23 cents in the coming weeks. 

It's at these times you tend to kick yourself and say 'why the hell didn't I buy more under 10c!'


----------



## Sean K

Was maybe a buying opportunity. Up 28% on Friday on way above ave volume. Perhaps some good results about to appear.

Was so close to selling this long term turkey, but perhaps it has really been oversold now. 

Could that have been a bottom? Must be a bottom somewhere I suppose.

Depending on how it behaves from here, I may even top up.


----------



## Sean K

Last week sold half *IRC *for 50% profit on those shares. Holding the rest until there's some more direction in the sp, or news. Breaking 40 and I'll consider adding some more again. 

Sold all the *RER *after I got the entitlement. Sold the 3c shares for 4.5, but overall made just a 1% gain. 

Tried to buy some more *AZM *but the stock ran away from me and I didn't want to chase it. If 13 c resistance is now confirmed as support, I will add some more this week.

*KMN *surprised and bounced off 17 c really well. Maybe the move is due to resource apgrade at San Anton, or Kalman, which are due, or just because it was oversold. 

Seriously thinking of dumping *NCM *and *LGL*. NCM has been smashed because of the WA gas fire, and LGL still feeling it from the EQI merger which is a question to many I think. Both effected by POG major correction too of course. Maybe I don't need them as a hedge anymore?

*STB *correcting but I think it will bounce off here. Wouldn't be surprised to see this with a $100m mc by the end of the year. 

*MAKO *is now converted into *MAK*. Good recovery on news on Friday but still trending down hill. My overall % gain on it has been reduced due to paying 30c an option to convert them. Is being oversold I think, on long term potential. 

Waiting to see how *MLM *goes.Down a couple of % on them after their pullback from 60 where there's a capper lurking. Fundamentally undervalued on their assets, and the potential value created from the 2 IPOs they're planning this and next year. The CSG tenaments in QLD could be a massive boost.

*BMN *consolidating really well above $2.00 and I expect some really good gains on this when they confirm the 100m lbs at Goan in the next upgrade due next month. Recent massive upgrade from Haywoods should provide plenty of interest. If POU recovers back towards $100, then this will be really well supported. Wouldn't be surprised on a T/O offer or approach, but not sure if management will play. Of course everyone has a price.

*DMM *correcting because of lack of news on the FS, and natural consolidation after a massive rise. I have a nasty feeling that the amount of silicon in the iron could make it tricky to beneficiate increasing costs and reducing value, but by how much, who knows. Fundamentally still undervalued on asset. All things being equal should get to $1.50 ish.


----------



## Sean K

Resistance smashed with bit gap up, running on RWDs form.

LOL

Wondering what to do with the other half now. Got no idea how far RWD can run taking IRC with it....


----------



## Sean K

Fvck it, I've been chasing this for the past few days to get more on but it keeps on being bought higher. Not much volume, but wuite a few %.

Just hit my 15c target but am going to stay completely in while it's been chased. 

Don't really have a lot in it so no panic stations if it slides a bit and I get to pick up a few more. 

Should be some natural correction soon, gone from 9c to 15c in a coupla weeks.


----------



## Sean K

Found some more at 14.5 

Solid day.

Still expect a pullback, although the rounded bottom looks pretty good to continue.

I think this rsie is post Opes and in recognition of how undervalued it was and with drilling results coming up with an initial JORC and upgrade. 

May take a few off the table shortly, pending market action. Would nice to end up free carried.


----------



## Sean K

LOL 

MLM will own a certain number of shares in the new companies and have members on the boards I assume. I've also been told that MLM holders will have first dibs on the IPO. Exactly how many unsure. If the current drilling by Metro Coal discover a decent coal seam expect it to be a great IPO. We just have to wait and they need to hurry up!

I added another 25% at .53 yesterday.


----------



## Sean K

Doubled up on KMN the past 2 days at 20c.


----------



## Sean K

This week:

Doubled holding in *KMN *at 20c. Currently valued at $7.27 oz au equiv, which is crazily cheap. All things being equal it will be rerated eventually. Or, go into administration...eeeek

Picked up 50% more *AZM *around 14.5c. In trading halt for release of drilling results on Monday which I expect to be good. May take some profits on any significant move up and hope to get close to almost free carried. 

Bought a few more *MLM *at 51c. Getting cheaper and cheaper. Will hold these now until IPOs of Bauxite and Coal assets I think to ensure entitlement for shares.

Held off selling any *LGL *or *NCM *due to POG rebound, and NCM looks oversold. Both seem to have been effected by shortselling. 

Bought *BFE*. Is a recap and has bought into an fe project in Nigeria with a target of 400-600Mt Mag, and needs at least 200Mt for the project to keep going. Looks very prospective from the information available, and with an MC of under $10m should be rerated once the market knows about it. Very spec.

*DMM *in trading halt to Wed for release of SS. Hopefully the silicon is not a major issue. I expect a minor problem but overall a positive study and it will spike up. I do expect a buy the rumour sell the fact however as it's been ramped so heavily on HC. Idiots. So, I may sell half on a spike and will be well over free carried.


----------



## Miner

Hi Sean

Have you recently followed AUROX AUX and what do you think of its prospects and value considering Windimera Vanadium is also good in Vanadium with not a huge market probably for Vanadium

Regards


----------



## Sean K

AUX, no, but will have a look. Don't know much about Vanadium really. Did look closely at Windimera and MXRs potential but not completely over them. Cheers, SK


----------



## Sean K

I see the floating of Metrocoal (MLM 100%)(pending satisfactory drilling currently underway) and Cape Alumina (40% MLM) as a massive upside surprise to the market once the listings are approved and taken forward. 

He's some detail on Metrocoal from their website:

*Metrocoal*

Queensland Focussed - One of the Best Coal Regions in the World Metrocoal Ltd. is an Australian–based mineral exploration company focused on its coal projects in the Surat Coal Basin locations of South East Queensland 
Currently privately owned subsidiary of ASX listed Metallica Minerals Limited.

The 100% owned project tenements cover a total of 4,000 km ² in Queensland’s productive coal region and have extensive coal bearing strata 3 coal projects (Surat, Ipswich & Injune) with extensive coal bearing strata targeting depths 130m - 300m for Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) as well as open pit coal potential <100m 

100% owned tenements.

*Value Adding Strategy* 

Utilising "new" technologies (Underground Coal Gasification - UCG) Spinoff of divestment from successful ASX listed Nickel focused company (ASX – MLM) 

Proven Brisbane based team. 

Metrocoal has an Edge “Latest” technology enhances portfolio High hydrogen Surat Basin coal suits CTL and Coal Gasification. 

Previous work on tenements provides confidence of there being extensive and exploitable coal deposits and data base for further work.

*Exploration Target > 1Bt Coal 
<300m depth + seam thickness 3m* 

*Metrocoal Summary *

Shallow, deep coal utilising UCG technologies 
4,000km ² coal tenements in currently under utilised but coal-rich Surat Basin. 

Excellent locations for infrastructure. 

Low sovereign risk. 

Experienced team with successful ASX track record. 

Clear strategy for diversified growth in Southeast Qld Coal and Energy. 

*Cape Alumina:*

An initial resource statement released in January 2007 of 54 million tonnes of indicated
and inferred in-situ bauxite. Further drilling aimed at defining 10-15 year mine life
based on 7mtpa of pisolitic bauxite production.

*Economics*

Export Export revenue of A$250m-$300m pa (subject to positive feasibility study). Export
Sales proposed to Xinfa, one of China’s largest bauxite importers and other Chinese alumina majors. 


What's 40% of just that mean for MLM?
How they can be trading at this MC is a bit odd. 

Looking forward to drill results and getting on board the IPOs!


----------



## Miner

Thanks for MLM update Sean

Could you please advise who is the sponsoring broker

Regards


----------



## Sean K

Just added some stuff on Cape Alumina too.

Not sure about brokers. 

Need to call.


----------



## Sean K

MC just over $50m with potential revenue from CA $250-300m at 40% = $100-120m alone.

Longer term looks undervalued just on CA.

Throw in the coal and Ni...and 25m Cockatoo Coal shares.


----------



## Sean K

And the results out today are a great surprise to the upsdie I'd say. If they get 1m oz au equiv at Bepkong and Kunche we could see 40c by the end of the year I think, if POG doesn't implode...


----------



## Sean K

Looks tenuous maybe heading back to 35. Sold a few more and looking to get rid of the rest short term. Will wait and see how 35 goes if it gets there.


----------



## JTLP

Haha kennas a bit of analysis on MLM i like it. I too am waiting for a re-rating...damn 60!

Can you tell me this...when they spin off these IPO's, do MLM still share in the benefits/rewards of these spin off companies? (i.e. profits etc as they are under the one umbrella) Or are they now considered seperate entities?

Thanks


----------



## Sean K

MLM will hold a certain % of each newly listed company. Ann just out on seed financing for the Metrocoal IPO. All done. MLM retains 84% at this stage. Interesting they got the financing before drill results. Market doesn't know these guys exist yet by the looks. Probably due to their focus on Ni. Not a really sexy project IMO, but will be a cash earner eventually. The spec appeal is the Coal for me.


----------



## JTLP

Haha thanks mate!

Would you look at that...my questions are answered. MLM retaining 84% seems good...do they then distribute a % of this to shareholders? If so, please be tiny !


----------



## Miner

thanks Kennas and JTC

Weipa is bloody rich with alumina in Cape York
No crusher or digger - Rio Tinto just digs the ore with no blasting. Very rick resources, Alcan used to have thousands of sq km of alumina there and now with take over it is very rich again. 
Now with Cape Alumina there MLM will be interesting
I have lived and worked in Weipa for Rio and if MLM stake is equally bigger then the opportunity for them will be explore and sell to Rio back. It will not be cost viable feasible  option for any third party to set up a new plant in Weipa as per my understanding - but you never know any way


----------



## Sean K

Yep, looks like an easy operation. I've tried to find where the RIO operation is in relation to Cape A, but can't find it. Any ideas? Potential for an offer from RIO down the track perhaps? Obviously MLMs 40% would be a hurdle.


----------



## Sean K

Regarding IPOs and allocation for MLM holders:

Thanks Sean,

At this stage we have reserved 2 million Cape shares ($1 million) out of a likely retail total of $8-$10 million for Metallica shareholders.  The shares will probably be allocated to Metallica shareholders informally by for example, getting them to return their applications to the Metallica office.

Metrocoal is a little further away as an IPO, but at this stage, we would expect a similar mechanism to apply.

Hope that is of some help.

Regards

John Haley
Director/CFO/Company Secretary
Metallica Minerals Limited


----------



## mu5hu

Hey,

Just to clarify, the IPO for Metrocoal won't be floated till later this year or maybe early 2009? So the ex-record date hasn't been annoucened yeah?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

Yes, seems some time off.

In the meantime, the sp will be effected more by Ni prices and general market sentiment. Looks pretty choppy right now and we need a long term vision. 

I'm not holding many really, and am waiting for that 60 level to break to jump in head first.


----------



## Sean K

Bought more at ave .73.

On known fundamentals, bargain. 

Should eventually be a $500m ++ mc company. At least a 5 bagger.


----------



## Sean K

Hooly dooly, what an upgrade to Cape A.

Double the resource.

When the market wakes up. he he he....

*Cape Alumina doubles resource at Pisolite Hills Project to 100 million tonnes of insitu bauxite

Cape Alumina has today released details of a doubling in bauxite resources for its Pisolite Hills project on the Weipa bauxite plateau of western Cape York, Queensland.

The new resource statement, which now represents a Mineral Resource of 100.8 million tonnes of Indicated (75.8 Mt) and Inferred (25.0 Mt) insitu bauxite, is the first since the Company’s maiden resource statement in January 2007.*


----------



## JTLP

I reckon Kennas...when will mister Market wake up and smell the Bauxite/Coal/Nickle...LOL.

It was nice to end the day on 50 cents; there just seems to be a lot of selling pressure atm.

Does anybody know when MLM plan to sink some drills into their coal grounds and get some resource estimates? Maybe that will send a nice rocket under the SP (roll eyes here)


----------



## Sean K

They are drilling the coal right now.


----------



## Sean K

That was a good ramp. LOL.  

See thread for analysis.


----------



## Sean K

Been reading the SS in absolute detail and crunching numbers and on the assumed long term prices for Hem/Mag reduced for the impurities in the deposit and it's looking dodgy. I have to have a very good look at the numbers again, but I think I may be out.

The comments above are on a Hematite price of $150 ave, which I thought was fair. The SS gives half that. eeeek!


----------



## Sean K

OK, have my breath back. While the SS has future estimates really low, they are been ultra conservative perhaps. And I might disagree with them. But what would I know.


----------



## Sean K

And hits 20c!

Whooohoooo!!

Lots of resistance around here though folks.

Must consolidate at some point.

Be prepared!


----------



## JTLP

Thanks Kennas.

Maybe if MLM gets its much warranted rerating we can have a beer in Mexico...have you been to Cabo? It looks lovely !

JTC


----------



## Sean K

Sold completely out past 2 days for 50% profit overall.


----------



## Sean K

Dropping out of uptrend. Concerning for short term management of position.

They have lots of land with crap on it but aren't doing anything about it.

If poo product prices come off, as they should, might be punished.

Finger on the sell button.


----------



## Sean K

Golly, 

It's been a tough 2 months hasn't it! Well for me anyway. 

I've been lucky enough to get into some good stocks early after the major correction but have watched some profits slide and slide the past 8 weeks. 

MAK a prime example. I had a crap load of options that at $2.50 ish peak (effective buy 7c) were putting a smile on my face you wouldn't believe. Now converted to shares and slip sliding away. 

Haven't wanted to sell for 2 reasons.

1. Fundamentally, into production worth at least double.

2. Didn't want the capital gain at end of year. 

Otherwise, 

LGL and NCM spanked!
Missed the top of IRC because of travel. Missed 20% more gain. 
MLM capper holding it below 60!
KMN static.
DMM off from $1.10 to .70c
STB ok but looking tenuous.
BFE boring, so far.

Saving graces:

BMN recovering.
AZM up 100%. 
ROY and GBG trades for 30% ish. 

And, I think the market may make 4800 in the next 3 months. 

Will be taking profits where I can in the new FY...


----------



## Sean K

Thank Ra/Marduk/El/Yahweh for GOLD!

Go gold!!

Did I say I was going to sell LGL/NCM a few days ago...

LOL



Still, world looking dodgy! I'm taking lots off the table from July 1.


----------



## Miner

Hi Sean

Are you still holding DMM and is the down fall just a correction for DMM ?

Regards


----------



## Sean K

Still holding. I think it's just a correction. I'm happy with the numbers I hacked out in the thread giving it a potential MC closer to $1b going into production against current $30m or whatever. Will naturally be rerated once the overall market sees the value. I hope.


----------



## Sean K

Sold all IRC to lock in profits and get back some cash.

Bought more DMM on correction. Way undervalued for potential. Market doesn't like it yet for some reason. Perhaps drilling and potential upgrade to 100Mt DSO will provide the catalyst. Holding and hoping..

STB correcting. Disappointing. They need to start moving on their projects or they'll be a has been.

Holding MAK long term. Unless RP crashes, long term fundamentals compelling. Will reassess after June to see if I take some profits, or just ride it out.

LGL and NCM may be recovering with POG and being oversold.

Taken no profits on AZM, I think with further drilling results and initial JORC at Bepkong it will keep moving to a fairer value closer to 40c (on 1m oz confirmation). In the meantime, expect some natural consolidation, has moved a bit quick. 

BFE will move once it starts to get publicised I think. Flying under the radar.

MLM having second thoughts about. I'm in it for the floats of Metrocoal and Cape Alumina, but I might as well just go through the public float. Doesn't seem that they are going to give a discount or much of an allocation to existing holders. Still undervalued, but the money may be better allocated elsewhere in the time being. Especially with it been held back under 60c...

KMN being rerated as it should be. Way undervalued on an MC to oz au equiv under $10. Rediculous. May take the opportunity to add more if uptrend confirmed. 

BMN significant break up. Would buy more if I didn't want to be in more cash...

Not sure what to sell to get back into more cash. Maybe some LGL and NCM on any spike up. Or, a few AZM to lock in profits, or MAK after June... 

Need to find a better balance in the portfolio with the most potential/undervalued and cash..

Watching CGG, I think it's a long term great asset, but not in my small cap criteria.


----------



## mu5hu

Hey Kennas,

This is prob a realy stoopid question but wat does "MC to oz au" mean? 

Cheers


----------



## JTLP

Mu5hu...Market Cap to Ounces of gold.

Kennas, would you not considering holding MLM until they at least announce some results from the coal tenements?


----------



## mu5hu

Cheers JTC


----------



## Miner

Hi 
What do you think of DVM considering heavy purchase of directors, relationship with BFE and other exploration companies and higher stake in Lake Macleod ? 
What does your research says >
I am getting conflicting message on it as ASX shows the share price was 4 cents, directors bought last week at 14 cents, public issue only closed last week to be listed if not done on Friday already and Commsec does not show any value of the share

Regards



Regards


----------



## Sean K

> Mu5hu...Market Cap to Ounces of gold.



And Mu, go to the 'gold comparison and information' thread to see a spreadsheet I've been working on that compares quite a few gold companies and their MC to Oz Au. It's an indication of their value. An explorer with a JORC should be on about $30, and developer $60-100, and a producer $100-200. The range depends on the quality of the assets etc etc.


JTC, you are right about the coal drilling results. It would probably be worth holding to see how MLM goes. Metrocoal's ground is highly prospective, with known coal seams so they should bring up something. Of course still no certainty. 

If you want to put their EPLs in perspective, have a look at the LOD thread and one of the last maps put up by YT on LODs ground. It also shows other companies with their tenaments. Metrocoals/MLMs is huge. 

Miner, I have just had a look at DVM, and to be honest, I have no idea how to value O&G plays. To me they're like going to the casnio and playing roulette. Some have more prospects than others and you might put your $2 on their number (WPL, STO, OSH, BPT) while others are very speculative and you really need to hedge your bets by going red or black. Over the past few years, I've only technically traded them with average success. 

I'm soley interested in BFE for the IO project. 

Sorry no help there.


----------



## Sean K

> Doubled up on KMN the past 2 days at 20c.



Up 23% Friday to 26 cents. 

Now up 20% on the buy, so might have payed off buying more around what might be a bottom. Might have caught the knife by the handle....

Not getting excited AT ALL, as this has been woofing continuously for a year.


----------



## Sean K

Well, it's been a tough FY year for the general markets. 

Where is it? Back to the start I think? Golly lower...

Started at 6300 ish, and ended at 5350. So market down 15%.

I've had a few lucky punts I think (MAK/O) and some great losses (KMN) but overall have returned 33%. (pre tax!) 

Not sure how I feel about the 08 performance. There were so many great spec opportunites, but my investment plan is to always try and be conservative. And, that was my 2008 story. Just kept taking profits and cutting losses, and didn't over invest in anything. And, I have the feeling this year will be the same. 

I suppose I can't be too upset with the outperformance given my conservative nature.  

This is a different figure to my overall P&L noted in the last couple of updates as I've only just started adding in the closed trades P&L and overall graphs. 

Will keep that running so it gives a fairer indication of % gain loss running through 08/09.


----------



## Miner

_To me they're like going to the casino and playing roulette. I'm soley interested in BFE for the IO project._ - Kennas

Thanks a lot for your pun on casino and O & G and I had a good laugh. 

That is interesting. Now I have to watch my son who is taking his degree in Petroleum Engineering and being a Miner I have no clue what they study too .

I will give DVM a pass until I gain sufficient knowledge on O & G


----------



## JTLP

33% gain pre tax...nice work Kennas. And, as you say, working off a conservative nature...you should be very chuffed.

Best of luck with this year though...could be a battle!


----------



## Sean K

Yes, I agree, but I'm not sure if any more difficult.

I had to significantly readjust my portfolio this year from holding quite a few blue chip and managed funds to going to all specs and gold. 

I misjudged the timings and took a bit of pain, especially on the managed funds.

However, I think I'm in the right things right now, and have learnt a lot about money management and improved my FA and TA skills, so I'm just aiming for the same result this year. 30ish %. If I keep doing that for the next 10 years, I'd be pretty happy. 

They key has definately been to cut losses as early as possible and pick up undervalued and uptrending stocks. 

Pending total world economic implosion, Australia and it's export led resources economy fueled by Chindia (not looking like they're slowing down much) should keep commods high, and maybe higher. 

SK


----------



## Sean K

Hooly dooly, woof woof! I can not fathom the turnaround today. Peaked at 32.5 and finished at 23.5. Surely something wrong there. Eeeeeek! Expecting bad news.

WOOF!


----------



## Sean K

The code for this should be changed to YOYO.

Up 14%.

WTF?


----------



## Sean K

Well, I truly think something is going on here. The buy depth is getting stacked like I have never seen it. Usually it's the other way. 

Will just have to wait and see. 

It's still woofing till it clearly breaks 30c and we see some higher highs and lows...


----------



## Sean K

Bought into CGG today at 37c on the announcement.

Have been watching for yonks and this tipped me over the edge.

See thread for ann and discussions with jman.

Big MC already, but on potential, looks cheap. 

Could have a $1-1.5b mc (or more) just on one of it's deposits going into production.

Currently under $400m.


----------



## Sean K

Another good day, up to 29c.

I have a feeling an ann could be out shortly regarding drilling and/or revised JORC at Kalman. 

From last ann on 25 June:

An updated mineral resource is currently being generated based on these new results as well as the previously announced rhenium results (see ASX announcement dated 4 March 2008). Recently received regional drilling results for areas along strike to the north and south of Kalman are currently being compiled and will shortly be released. 

Hopefully north of the current deposit, over the fault, is an extension of the deposit. That could potentially double it's size. Fingers crossed.


----------



## Sean K

Eeeeek!!!

I'm holding everything, and expect a bounce at some time, in the next 5 years or so!!!

Eeeeeek!!

Selling right now is stupidity IMHO. 

Can't believe the lemmings....

You lemmings should have sold ages ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## mu5hu

tell me about it kenna
i was very dissapointed today with market but yeah wat can u do is trust ur judgetment and hold on!! haha

lets hope it bounces back!!


----------



## Sean K

Incredible results out.

See ann.

Mind bogling actually.


----------



## Sean K

Holey fvck!!!! 

23%

This is OD ++ material!!!

Wake up market!!!

Could be a mine.

(read minor sarcasm)


Hope you've been on since 20s....


----------



## Sean K

I'm still getting my head over this intersection.

Mind frying actually.

Cripes!!!

Any of you see this as a world turner?

Maybe I have no idea??


----------



## Miner

Hi Kennas

I missed to see all postings in ASF recently.

Saw one mail from JTC to you with a new thread .

Who has upset you ? 

People should not press the wrong button as you are and have been doing an excellent service for most of us. 

If possible whatever the errors caused by some ASF members please forgive them and do not leave this forum

Regards


----------



## Miner

Hi Kennas

Did you happen to see the BFE job advertisement ? It is seeking the CEO for BFE. THat is a good news of a team formation and further they have referred to its website means information will be very rich about the company

Unlike many newbe companies BFE appears to be having a professional senior executive team which is great symptom of a healthly organisation and growth of the company

I will be watching BFE in stock reports now


----------



## Sean K

Hi Miner, I was putting noses out of joint unfortunately. I might re-open the thread once they chill out a bit. Cheers, Sean


----------



## Miner

Fully understand Sean and respect what you said.

For the broader community interest of this forum I am sure you would return sooner than never. 

Take care and regards


----------



## JTLP

Kennas...hope you didn't mind my thread dedicated to you LOL!

I, much like Miner, value your research highly. You have given valuable insight and regulated this place nicely.

My parent's always told me there were 3 things you should never talk about at the dinner table; sex, politics and religion...but hell...they are the 3 best to get the party started!

Take care my good man.

JTC


----------



## Sean K

Thanks guys, much appreciate the support. 

Unfortunately alcohol has been a contributing factor to some of my slip ups lately.


----------



## JTLP

Ahh kennas pobody's nerfect!

Just help soothe my nerves with MLM !

Whats going on out there lol!


----------



## Sean K

Yep, looks sick. Price of Ni is killing it. It's saviour will be Metrocoal and Cape Alumina if they ever get them out. There should be a bottom at .45 in all likelihood, but the overall market is just smashing everything right now. The facts and fundamentals haven't changed for this, but technically, I may have to sell. Down quite a bit on this and CGG at the moment.


----------



## JTLP

Yeah the market is giving everything a pasting.

I'm just holding out for the coal updates. Hopefully can get up around buy-in and a sell will occur.

Selling out now for me would be crazy. Baby + bathwater?

You are right, does need support...too hard to set a stop with the illiquid nature though.

Bugger


----------



## Sean K

Sold all of it at ave .28. 

Of all my stocks this is the first one I'd like to get into cash with. 

I'm probably going to sell quite a lot of things, or part off to have cash for latter on.


----------



## Sean K

Sold a few things today, which I have been threatening for months and held back because of greed. 

Now fear got me, as I have a feeling the market is going to go pear shaped in the next few weeks. 

I hope not, but I have too much at interest and are nimble enough to get back in at short notice.

So, I sold all CGG, 1/3 BFE and all MLM today.

I think they are great stocks but will be back in once they start going up again.


----------



## Miner

Sean
Yes, I do sound the same sense of fear. Most of the stocks are  red in my portfolio. But you are very astute investor and bloody knowledgable. There are few like you in this forum.
I am now really afraid that you are under fear and selling your stocks what will be the situation of ordinary blogs in stock markets who know nothing about market or investment tools.

It is really a frightening sign to me and if YT, Julia, Doctor J, Prospector,  and Hangsang  join you then situation will be worst


----------



## JTLP

You sold MLM !

I was tempted but it got back to even for the day. THey just better get a wriggle on.

All the best Kennas!


----------



## Sean K

I've made several mistakes the past 2 months, basically not taking enough profits and not selling some things that went backward more than 10%. That includes both MLM and CGG. 

Missed heaps of profits by not locking in IRC early, and not taking some (maybe half) off the table of AZM, KMN, and DMM. 

Why didn't I? Greed. 

Self flagilation go on:

:whip


----------



## Sean K

I've sold a few and am going to sell the lot. 

I don't like management.


----------



## Sean K

Cripes, what a disasterous couple of months.

Seen quite a few profits slip slide away and made a couple of nice capital losses on some stocks I should have sold earlier. Went against my trading plan, not cutting the losses early, expecting the 'fundamentals' to hold them up.

Silly Sean!!

*MAK *has been the biggest killer, and in harry, should have taken more profits on the break through $2.00. Can't see it going too much lower with the market. Famous last words.

*LGL *and *NCM*, which I've been threatening to sell have turned up with POG and should have a good Monday. Unusual vol on NCM a few days ago, I'm suspiscious. 

Sold *MLM *and *CGG *for 25% losses. Ouch. You idiot!  MLM still has huge potential with the IPOs but it's flagship Ni project looks like a turkey. Market thinks so by the look. Potential bottom at .45 though. CGG just died in the ****, very surprised. 

Sold half *STB *for 35% gain and going to sell the rest. Getting bored. Is on the watch list for a break up. Still has potential, but tried to talk to the company last week about progress (you know, like digging a hole) and they weren't interested. 

*BMN *stalled at $2.50 resistance as expected and gone through some consolidation. Revised JORC coming up and if it hits 100m lbs it should be sitting on a $600m MC if the Rio sale is a measure. That's about $6.00. a share.

*BFE *and *DMM*. Zzzzzzzzzzzz. Sold a third of BFE just to get back into some more cash. Come on boys I'm getting bored. 

*AZM *consolidating (too much of course) but as expected around the .20 market. Should have taken some profits there, but I was asleep at the wheel, again. Goose. Drilling results imminent and hopefully they are as good as the last. Looking forward to initial JORC at Bepkong next month. 

Getting *KMN *under 20c was a masterstroke. Risky, but paid off with the release of extraodinary drillling results at Kalman. Need some follow up for this old dog to keep kicking. Woof!!

Looking at:

Nada!

The markets are fvcked!!
I want some more cash, for the capitulation.


----------



## Miner

what do you now you think of ASX on Monday considering DOW has again dived on Friday ?


----------



## Sean K

Mixed Miner.

Resources might do OK. Gold and oil flying. I expect 3-5% gains on AZM, KMN, LGL and NCM, pending Asian gold trade. Should be up though. 

Financials and housing related stocks will be crucified. Not going there for some time. 5 years? eeeek!

Still want to take some more off the table somewhere.


----------



## Sean K

Sold last parcel of STB the past 2 days, ave .26.

Both went for 35 and 30% gains.

Watching for any significant moves or news to get back in, pending market. 

I think there's a future for good Poo players mid term, but short term the markets are cactus.


----------



## Sean K

Sold half KMN at .26 for a 20% gain and a handful of MAK at 1.60 for 178% gain.

Gathering a war chest for the 'bottom'.

Why I haven't had any shorts on beats me.



Amateur.


----------



## JTLP

War Chest...LOL.

No shorts cause the US is giving 4 seasons in a day...much like beautiful Melbourne =)!


----------



## Sean K

Looks like I sold some of those KMN at the right time.

Just saw a 200K order go through up to .27. Someone wants some. 

Nice work kennas.


----------



## Sean K

Well, that didn't last very long.

I'm out completely at .25 till the dust settles, pending further price action.

If it tanks again for no reason, probably back in.

If it cracks 30, I'm probably back in.


----------



## Sean K

I sold a few BFE last week to get back into some cash along with bits of other things but I am considering to top up on it again, with the recent purchases on market by the directors, and 18 looks like a possible floor. 

Maybe.

GBG and ROY have been crucified and both approaching or at long term support at .90 and .20 respectively. Have bought and sold both these on and off and understand the companies. Both fundamentally look good, but the market has been overly cruel I think. 

Looking at short term trades on them, pending market.


----------



## Sean K

And I'll add AZM to the top up list as well after the results this am.

Outstanding.

Shame gold tanked.


----------



## Sean K

Bought a few more AZM and BFE yesterday.

AZM results really were acceptional.

Looks like YT is on BFE too so hopefully the YT effect has an effect. lol


----------



## Sean K

I've followed RWD very closely since it was around $1.00 and was very close to taking a large position, but held off as I was concerned about market conditions at the time. 

I'm still concerned, but RWD has come off from a $2.30 ish peak to fall dramatically (like MAK) back to where I was going to enter. 

So, I'm looking at it again. MC is at a point where if it was actually producing now, would have a pe of about 3. And it looks like it will get to mining.

Agricultural products are the go. It might take time to realize gains in this, but I'm going to start picking some up for long term horizon (5 years).

That's my opinion at the moment anyway.

Will probably change after the next financial shock.


----------



## Sean K

Depth is concerning. 

Looks really odd actually.

No buying support.

Maybe stale holders and the Bear creating it. No one has $$ left to invest perhaps.

Could be a good opportunity, or a Bear Trap!

Still watching to see some direction.

eeeek.


----------



## Sean K

Bought some GBG at 96. 

Stop .88 ish. 

Target about $1.15, at the next resistance.


----------



## Sean K

LOL, I've had a bear attack and decided to sell GBG this am at $1.00 for a massive 4% gain, less tax. 

So much negativity.


----------



## Sean K

And, day high 1.09 so far.

Missed 9% in a couple of hours.

Guttsy kennas.

What was the 'plan'?


----------



## Sean K

Gold getting smashed, and I think it'll find support soon.

US is still a basket case, and housing hasn't finished going down. Not sure exactly how much is factored in. Oil correcting but I think will steady soon, after coming out of the bubble.

NCM off 6%, good chance for me to add some. 

Unless of course, the US has bottomed and all the bad news is overfactored in and gold goes back to $200.


----------



## Miner

Hi Sean

Have you lately followed CGX and what do you think ? 
The ball mills arrived, SAG mill is on transport, construction is two weeks ahead of schedule, increased royalty and lower profitability. 

The price has come down much below than the price they raised fund only few months ago. Would the market be surprised by some good result of grade or in general better construction further ? 

What is your thought on this ?


----------



## Sean K

I haven't really been following lately. Just went through their last few anns and it's looking good, but haven't really done enough research to comment on it's current value. Need to look further.


----------



## Sean K

And it did halt at that resistance and made it's way all the way back to 12 with the ongoing correcion and POG weakness. Such a shame this isn't going through this stage of progress with a booming market. Would be flying.

Has recovered since Macquarie has taken a 13% stake which is good and bad. Means they have some more money and have got good insto support, but a takeover will be a little less likely.

Recovered back up to .175 now with a few decent orders in.

I'm holding too many....


----------



## Sean K

Just holding on to support zone around 1.25.

Seems all poo stocks have had a bad trot since the correction from 6000. A general flight to cash.

STB also way off after breaking .25 support.

Still holding off for some direction. Perhaps the Martu getting their act together and signing the mining agreement will help RWD.

If they can get to mining will be a great stock.


----------



## Sean K

Crikey! We'll be able to look back on this in 10 years and say, 'I remember the 07/08 credit crunch that destroyed the housing markets around the world, and put the world economy into a bear market'. 

Traded *GBG *for a 4% gain. Waste of time really.

Sold a few *MAK *at 1.60 to get some more cash in the bank and wait for it to turn around. 

Sold all *STB *for a nice profit. 

Bought a few more *BFE*, but it's going crappo. Still way undervalued on a peer comparison and I trust that it will be rerated once it starts moving forward with resource definition. Not selling on technicals with this as I believe it's so fundamentally undervalued. 

*DMM *just holding as above. 

Bought more *AZM *on their last drilling update ann at .165. It then managed to find it's way back to .12 and I was thinking, 'nice work Sean'. Goose. Anyway, Macquarie just taken 13% of the company, and it's still way undervalued. The Bepkong JORC should give it a great boost and I will probably take some profits on the JORC ann.

Topped up a just a few *NCM*. POG is starting to look tasty again and should consolidate around these levels for the next leg up. Will be going long on the unerlying also when I see the break up.

Sold all *KMN* for a good profit. 

*LGL*, hitting LONG term support at $2.75, and I might add a few there.

*BMN*, Wooof! Delays, delays, miscommunication, giving me the sheets!! If they don't get 100m lbs out in the final resource it will be smashed. I have my fingers crossed. Major risk is the Savanna litigation, that could decimate the stock. On the other hand, if it's squashed, will probably fly.

Overall, I think the market has the potential to consolidate around the 4800 level and we might see a decent rally. Long term we're seeing some great value emerging. Lots of the pain is factored in, pending how badly the inevitable Australian housing correction/bust takes shape. 

Have my model portfolio ready to go, and have the cash to run with it, and will do it in the margin account to draw on the excess equity for when it all turns around. Might be some time though.

Also waiting for the seasonal run in POG to occur in August some time. 

I haven't been including my CFD account money and IG markets trading account cash in the overall picture here. There's not much in either as I diverted most cash in to an interest bearing account when the crunch really hit earlier in the year. Might be time to start reducing cash completely soon and being more fully invested. 

Not invested in any stocks with the CFD and just daytrade with it. No open positions in the IG account. 

Looking at: 

Probably topping up a few NCM or LGL is gold breaks up. 

Selling a few AZM on JORC ann sometime this month, depending on what it actually is and market response. 

Watching MAK for break up to add some more, maybe. 

RWD for break up. Probably will once the Martu finally sign off on the mining agreement. 

On top of this, I'm living in hotels for the next 3 months so I'm just on the notebook. Life's tough without the big screen....


----------



## Sean K

Topped up a few LGL on what looks to be an overdone sell off. No reason for it that we should be aware of, just panick, and a long term opportunity to top up IMO. I hope.


----------



## Sean K

BMN are going to be in the crapper if this amended motion gets up.

I had to send this letter to them:

Dear Bannerman,

I'd like to express my disappointment at your continuous disclosure of events surrounding the High Court Motion. 

As you would be no doubt aware this issue is of significant concern to shareholders and the general market, and you have failed to keep the market up to date with ongoing events.

Specifically, I note in your latest quarterly that several documents have been processed, and most concerning, Savanna have submitted an amended motion to include a claim that the MME was ‘functus officio’, in effect claiming that the Minister did not have the power to grant EPL3345. This occurred on 14 April. Why was the market not made aware of this, or others actions occurring on 30 May and 30 June? 

While I am a small shareholder, if the claim is upheld (especially in relation to the amended motion) you have not provided me with adequate notice as to the general operations of the company that may affect its future earnings, or even functioning.

I do not expect any response, or explanation, but you are surely leaving yourself open to question, if events unfold in the wrong direction.

Yours sincerely,
kennas


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## JTLP

Kennas...today is my birthday! =D

You think I would have come home to some bloody ripper announcements???

All i gots is a lady overseas and a backpack full of broken dreams!

All the best son


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## Miner

Happy Birth Day JTC and Many Happy Returns of the Day

 Today is also the day I joined the workforce finishing my first uni course

Take care and all the best

Regards

HI Kennas 

Please do not mind to use your blog space to post JTC a mail


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## Sean K

No worries miner!

Happy birthday JTC.

Hope you can remember last night!!


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## JTLP

Wow...what happened on the weekend.......

Thanks for the wishes Kennas + Miner...was a very good day!

Miner what did you complete your degree in? And what sort of job did you get? Congratulations on these achievements!

This market sucks...my money feels so dirty.

Kennas are you still looking to withdraw all funds at the right time?


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## Sean K

60m ish shares on issue and now trading at .23 gives it a $14m MC aroundabouts.

They were drilling the Cowell deposit last month and were supposed to finsih end July. Putting 6 holes into it. 

Looks pretty cheap for the potential, along with it's gold and copper potential.

Still watching, but tempted at these levels. 

Couldn't go too much lower could it?

eeek!


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## Sean K

No, What I've got I intend to hold medium term, but will take profits if there's a decent run. Well, that's the intention at the moment. If anything, I will probably be a buyer in the coming months.


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## Sean K

Nice work topping up LGL and NCM over the past week or so. 

Crikey!

Moments like these you wish you weren't a long investor and were sitting on piles of cash earning interest...


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## Sean K

Wow, hit 1.08 on yesterdays whalloping. If I had have been up that would have been me. Shame. If they get to mining, this price looks long term dirt cheap. Will I, won't I....


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## Sean K

I've bought a few WOW today at $26.15, as part of my 'Model Portfolio'. 

It's the start...

Just going to start adding as I go.

I haven't bought the $10K I was planning to though. Bought $26K.


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## Sean K

Looking at this again after been sold off with the rest of commods, back down to 20c which makes it relatively good value again.

Further results from Kalman due, and an upgraded JORC.

Could be a good short term trade.

However, all commods getting hammered, so high risk.

hmmmmm


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## Sean K

Looking to add WBC and maybe ASX on Monday.

WBC for long term, and ASX looks like it's breaking up from potential bottom. Will monitor that one closely.


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## Sean K

Picked up 1000 WBC @ 24.24 for the grandkids.

No ASX yet.


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## Sean K

The grandkids are going without these now. Staying in as much cash as possible for the foreseable future. 

Sold LGL, some AZM and some MAK the past few days. 

I'm a lemming.


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## Sean K

And gold bounces. Looks like I sold LGL at a bottom of some sorts. Nice work kennas.

I'll buy back in I think.


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## Sean K

OK, I got a crap response from this, and their SP is tanking and they have offered a 'we know nothing' response to an ASZ volume querey.

Therefore I am writing to the ASX enclosing this letter, their response, and their non disclosure.

BMN are in doo doo.


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## Sean K

Well, the carnage continues.

I have thinned out a few positions over the past 2 weeks and been concentrating on day trading the ASX mini and gold throuh IG. Not doing very well at that either. 

I think I'll have to go back to taxi driving soon...

Sold about a third of AZM at 15 for 15% profit. Might try and pick some up cheaper hopefully before gold resumes a climb or the Bepkong JORC comes out. (assuming it's good and not on a gold smashing day)

Panick sold my LGL at $2.15 for a few % gain, after holding them for ages. Also looking to get back in once gold settles.

Sold a few MAK at $1.10 average for about 100% profit. I thought there was potential for a turn around last week, but it's still well trending down.

BMN is turning into a disaster, and I am spanking myself over it. My investment/trading plan over the past 2 years has been to cut losses early, and let winners run. I'm down 50% on this now, and continue to hold because the 'fundamentals' are solid. What a joke. And what a goose. Lesson learnt again. Might sell for a capital loss and buy back in as I think it's way undervalued. 80c may be a bottom. 

NCM, holding.

DMM, holding, treading water, thankfully.

BFE, ditto..

Bought and sold WOW and WBC last week for about a 1% gain. 

Looking closely at KMN for a short term trade. Back at 20c again and due for a few announcements. Commods tanking might keep it down no matter what though. But, downside looks limited from here.


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## Sean K

Sold BMN for 50% loss, will watch for reentry.

Sold NCM for an 80% gain, over some time... Will get a takeover offer now...eeeek!

I think golds going to keep going down for a bit, but if it recovers and breaks back up will be back into LGL and NCM.


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## Sean K

Selling down a few more MAK for about a 55% gain.

Far cry from what was a 700% winner at one point. 

Idiot.


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## Sean K

Bought back into some AZM the last few days at 14. 

JORC for Bepkong expected to be out today or tomorrow and I might tell into any strength to take some more profits. Depends on the JORC and response really.


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## Sean K

Hmmmmf, No ann from AZM. Disappointed.


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## Sean K

Golly what a couple of great sessions, up over 50%. 

I did well taking some profits on this around 90c...Nice one kennas. 

Well, I never expected this sort of recovery and the markets are sheet house, so right for the times.

I was in Quito and Lima airport last night arguing with customs and didn't get to watch the action. I managed to put in a small order from the departure lounge in Quito (Ecuador wifi craps on Australia) which was filled, and lucky enough not at the day high. 

As expected the $1.40 ish level a bit of resistance, and one day hold above $1.40 doesn't mean it's broken imo.

Looks like it was small parcels going through, but could we assume that someone is taking a significant chunk of this the past 2 days? Insto? Maybe. 

Anyway, repaired my account somewhat the past 2 days. 

I'll look at more if it forms some support and looks to break up, maybe too late to jump in boots and all now.


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## Sean K

Added MAK chart to above post.

I expect some consolidation here.

Broke out of the bolinger and sold back, hitting the significant resistance at $1.40, overdone on stochastics, off high yesterday by quite a bit, almost looking overbought on RSI, but not yet. Could go up a bit more before it needs a rest. The only thing that looks great is the MACD...

Couldn't buy more until it consolidates, but I might miss the boat too. I think best to be conservative with any buy and hold investments right now.

That analysis may be way out too, but I think the heard has run. 

2C


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## Sean K

And a likely reversal occuring. If it doesn't hover here and get back over $1.40, down she goes again.


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## Sean K

Possible case here I think is consolidation above some support around the $1.25 level with a descending triangle eventuating, forming up a pole and a pennant. These are very bullish during uptrends but not so much after such a long and dismal slide. So, I will wait and see how this forms up, and look at another entry if the triangle forms and the break up occurs. Until then, the markets are crappo.


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## Sean K

Damn! Lost the initial chart, and it's on my computer back in Peru....

Have added what I thought was there with the possible pole and pennant, with approximate target depending on where it breaks.


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## Sean K

Tested 1.25 yesterday and just held, but I reckon will be smashed today with everything else. If so, I will take out my last investment, till up trend is confirmed.


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## Sean K

Great recovery yesterday, but sold a few into the bounce. Waiting to see if this flag breaks up.


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## Sean K

Unfortunately, I am on the road travelling around Brazil at the moment and have left my computer home with all my files on it, so no graphs. I really should have bought my USB stick with my important files..

Currently working in my hotel with my wife's computer while she's attending a conference. From next week, it's all internet cafe's so won't be much from me.

Over the past couple of weeks I've sold in to any bounces and cleared the desk with disasters.

BFE sold all for 50% loss. Wanted to get out much earlier but there were just no buyers because of so thinly traded. Bad timing to get into this spec of specs.
Sold all LGL and NCM, for 5% and 70% gain. Looks like long term uptrends over, but ready to go back in if gold starts back up.
Bought and sold WOW and WBC for a few % gain. I did buy them for the 'long term grandkids' portfolio, but reviewing the markets there might be a chance to get in lower.
Bought a few more AZM preparing for the JORC which was as expected but was on a XAO shocker day and gold getting smashed. Bad timing. Holding on.
DMM holding. 
Bought a few more MAK on the jump but then sold on the sell off for nil result. 

Haven't been day trading the index, forex, or gold as I can't put the software on this computer and won't have time anyway.

So, the only stocks I'm holding now are AZM, DMM and MAK, with about 65% cash, of active investments. Still 45% in Super, which has probably been decimated the past year. 

So, for the next 4 weeks, not much from me as I'll soon be on a _real_ holiday touring Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. 

Will be updating the blog as I go. http://www.thesurvivalimperative.blogspot.com/

Good luck with your trading/investing. 

kennas


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## Miner

Enjoy your holiday and look for some iron and steel technology cheaper conversion. 

I am seriously asking if you please cast your eyes. Currently with low grade of Fe, high cost of energy, low supply of coking coal there is a thrust on seeking iron production with non coking coal and low FE.

I have been advised by some one in this field that Brazil offers some new technology. 

IMO there could be real money to make in this search. 

Good luck and talk to you soon through this forum

Regards


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## Sean K

New technology?

The only new technology I'll be looking at is how to make caipirinha's.....

A cup, some CachaÃ§a, sugarcane juice, limes and ice....

Rocket fuel!


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## Sean K

No change.....

I have been out of the office for the past 4 weeks travelling around a bit and have had no opportunity to make any decisions on stocks or take advantage of the decline in the overall market. 

It's probably been impossible to get out of AZM and DMM anyway due to the low liquidity there. Still holding MAK as I am clinging on to the assumption that Wonarah will be economical. 

Not thinking of trying to pick any bottoms at the moment as fear has gripped the world.....

Unless the entire system falls over though, you'd have to think that there's some _long_ term value appearing...

Perhaps.....


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## Garpal Gumnut

The only ones I've been accumulating for the long term are BHP and RIO. 

In for a penny, in for a pound is my motto in these crazy times.

Both are worth looking at on long term support /resistance levels.

gg


----------



## JTLP

GG...if I was home id be baggin BHP as well. But I needs all the money for my trip...feel like picking a few up for me in the 20s?

Kennas...keen on meeting up for a beer in Mexico...id love to meet the man behind the legend haha!

These markets are just crazy...panic mode has heightended again tonight...god bless!


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## Sean K

I'm stuck in Peru for the rest of the year, so no Mehico for me unfortunately.

BHP is certainly on my list of potential buys but my aging heart couldn't take this volatility right now....

Watching gold closely though. If others start to lower rates it may be the kicker it needs. 

No intraday trading for me right now either, just sitting on the fence watching the blood...


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## Sean K

These two are leading gold up now and look close to breaking significant long term resistance at $26.50 and $2.75 ish respectively. 

They might be the only real opportunity for long positions over the coming months.

Watching.....waiting....


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## Sean K

After golds recovery and approach to breaking downtrend line these guys might get close to breaking positively through today, but I think gold needs to be breaking $930 ish for that to occur. 

Watching....


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## Garpal Gumnut

No J mate, Out of cvn, I'll wait awhille, I think the oilers are on a downer, only ones I'm looking at are anz ( takeover play) , rio and bhp. All for longterm.

Adding in a down market for small caps I'm wary of. When fear grips , the smaller ones get sold down straightaway, I think so anyway.

gg


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## Sean K

I have discussed a 'model portfolio' in my blog and bought a couple of them a while ago (WOW and WBC) but ditched them within a week due to the market action. 

Now, while 3400 may be a possibility, getting in somewhere between now and then (maybe Monday) may be a very long term good investment. 

But, what is safe?

I think the only thing I could say might be ok right now is WOW, but have my eyes on all the others on the list.

Anyone got a long term pick, or sector, that may be safe? 

Healthcare: CSL, COH, HSP?


----------



## prawn_86

Im liking the look of ANZ and AMP at these prices.

Mainly based on yeild over the long term, although obvious finance sector risks associated...


----------



## Gurgler

I also feel attracted to CSL - with which I achieved moderate success in the past.

Also BHP as the long term growth of China, though stalled, must one would think continue. Or am I deluding myself?? Is the ongoing move at RIO proving a thorn in its side?


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## Sean K

I think this is still just a hiccup in the long term Chindia story, but it will take a few years to sort itself out. BHP/RIO will come out of this and mop up the minnows and make a fvcking killing..

I agree with ANZ and AMP, but prefer WBC in the banks, but you're right about risks in the fin sector Prawn.

But, I really think this action is now purely emotion and NOT rational. Just have to see how far the emotion takes us. The rebound may be significant and I don't want to miss it...


----------



## Sean K

Glad I'm still watching. Gold is in the dog house again..


----------



## Sean K

The sell off on Friday and bounce Monday world wide looks very bottom esqe to me...

A bottom anyway.


----------



## Sean K

The market is still full of fear but just hard to say if it's going to make a lower low, and if so, how low? Much further that 3800 or whatever the low was? If it went to 3400 support and 61% retracement that's not much lower really....hmmmm


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## Garpal Gumnut

agree too much fear. I never took you for a bottom picker kennas mate, typical BASB choco lol.

gg


----------



## shag

i like the mak story
i've bought a handful.
even if the world goes into a hard recession, you still need fertiliser. and it seems they have a lot of the stuff, at high rates. surely this is the sort of thing rudd wants to progress to grow the economy also.
plus the site, hell have u ever seen a site begging to be dug up.
but then i like too many resource plays.
note, u an cut back on fertiliser for a yr or so, but soon it comes back to haunt you.


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## Sean K

Only a choco after 13 real years. 

They're called CSSBs now too...


----------



## Miner

Just to say hello to Kennas and other contributors to this blog. I noticed for long time nothing was posted by Kennas either. Of course market is bloody tale tell for all of us

Take care and all the best


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## Sean K

Yes, nothing added, because nothing done.

Have not made a trade in a month....

Almost bought some more MAK on Friday, but thought I'd wait for an uptrend...

I've not even been day trading due to my current living arrangements. Just moved in to a new apartment for 2 months, but it's temp. 

I am also now working during the day with my wife doing special projects for the company. Right now I'm the HR and Sales Manager. Positions that were supposed to be filled but due to the credit crisis have been deferred till mid 2009.

So, for the next few months I am a volunteer with Intrepid Andes during the day and trying to find time to go to the gym, learn guitar, get Spanish lessons and then decide on some investments...

Happy to be watching at the moment.

Sean


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## Miner

Interesting observation and correct from a shrewd investor like you who does not forget to watch the starry sky and mountain with guitar. 

Enjoy your HR and Sales role. Probably you will not face the skill shortage to source your people. With so many projects been made off the shelf in Perth/ WA , miners and engineers will be easy to locate and probably Visa 457 is going to be parked as well.

See ya


----------



## Gurgler

Also doing nothing for the moment.

Figure it will be a while - probably after my 'tour of duty' ends in Jan 09 - thereafter I will be back in the 'real world' aka Melb. In the meantime I will watch and learn - well, try to.

What a ride it's been; still musing about what the longer term recovery will be like!

Watching, waiting.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like a short term bottom definately in place, but how much this up move has, no idea. 4800 ish a possibility?

Dirtied the fingers with stops of course.


----------



## Sean K

I'm finding it harder and harder to not jump in to some of these seriously oversold juniors with cash and known assets close to the majors.

BRM is a classic.

1.5b tns of IO with an MC of $70m and cash in the bank of $110m..

WTF?

Might have to take a long term punt there.

Surely a takeover on the cards. Just at it's cash backing is a 40% return. 



Long term support at .50 ish holding. For now.


----------



## Sean K

Well, was a bottom for a few days....

LOL


----------



## Sean K

Dipped my toe in the water and bought 20K@.52.

Will add or sell as the market dictates.

Might be a LONG wait for a return, but on the facts available looks stupidly oversold.

Market seems to be factoring in total earth implosion....


----------



## Gurgler

Yes, I've been keeping a watchful eye on it also.

But as you say with the current market movement, when is the time to act?


----------



## Sean K

I still think 3400 ish on the XAO is a possibility, and any buying between here and there something that could survive might be a good long term buy. I'm not sure how this can fail with $110m in the bank. Even if they need to just halt progress and wait for the dust to settle. If it takes 2 years so be it, but with the cash backing far outweighing the MC I just can't see much more downside. Unless there's something we don't know....

Obviously a risk, but that's life! 

Ready to sell probably if it makes the low 40s and will re-evaluate.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Mate its in a long term downtrend and a descending triangle. If you are correct stick with it. If it nudges below 0.4550 I would be out if I were you.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Yep, I agree.

Not going to hold if it starts to fail the 50 ish support. 

I'm going against my normal trading plan here as I normally only jump into anything breaking up, but this is an exception to me. 

There must be a reason for the arb on the intrinsic value and mc, but I can't really see whay it should be so far undervalued, and right now, I think the downside is more limited.

Happy to be burnt a few bucks for the potential reward on this 'investment'. 

Let's see.

Actually thinking about adding some more Mon am pending the open. 

Eeeeeek!


----------



## Sean K

Well, this was my first buy of anything for some time, other than day trading some large caps, the index and gold and I think it will be short lived.

While I think we're nearing a bottom, just where the fvck is it? I was think 3400, but the fundamental news just keeps getting worse. 

Might be best to get back behind the couch I feel and stick to short term ....

:couch

At least for a few more days...


----------



## Sean K

Golly, breaking Oct lows, 3400 ish next stop perhaps. 

I anticipate some technical buying around these levels. 

If we go under 3500 I'll be buying.


----------



## Sean K

I'm back behind the couch....

:couch


----------



## Naked shorts

i think its down because everyone is getting out of risky small cap stocks to fund their failing large caps


----------



## basilio

Can't believe it can you?  Seems absolutely rock solid money in the bank share - and its still falling. I think BRM needs to look as if they are doing something - even if it is only looking for partners, doubling their cash on roulette !!!  whatever.

I wish i had taken the small profit I had when I bought at 52 originally.


----------



## basilio

Hard to see anything good isn't it?

My belief is that energy stocks and in particular oil will be essential products whatever happens. With the looming decline in almost all world oil fields this issue will become critical.

I'm chasing LNC because i think Peter Bond is a real goer and the basic story of turning cheap cola into valuable diesel is a winner.

CNX has the same technology and is turning it into  different products. Should also be a winner but not as imaginative or hard driving as Peter Bond. Mind you CNX is still getting slaughtered in the middle of a successful tril of  its plant!!


----------



## Sean K

Eeeek, hit what I thought was an approximate bottom at 3400 ish, but the Dow is going to cause more blood today.

50% + drop. I doubt we'll ever see something like this again. 

Once in a lifetime drop?

Maybe once in a life time buying opportunity coming up too?

I haven't bought anything yet as the momentum is just so great, and even accelerating.....

Maybe a V bottom coming up...


----------



## Sean K

Maybe bouncing off 3200 ish.

God, could keep calling these maybe's until it hits 0....


----------



## Sean K

Hmmm, interesting turn around yesterday.

Nice hammer candle. 

Prospective....


----------



## grace

Hi Kennas

Have you seen Kev in town yet?....he's in Lima.  (off topic I know)

Cheers Grace


----------



## Sean K

Hi Grace, No haven't seen him, but this APEC thing is a pain in the @rse. I live right in the middle of where it's been held and there's road blocks everywhere. Would you believe the Limenos have given themelves 3 days holidays for APEC? What the? Any excess to not work .....


----------



## Sean K

I've been day trading the ASX mini the past few months and gold and some very short term trading blue chips but haven't been happy or successful with any of it. Disaster really. 

Made a few $ on RIO this am on the most likely oversell and have just bought a few BMN on a very short term trade depending on future movements.

Looks like a nice rounded bottom, POU has steadied, and it's poking though major resistance at 50c.

Has potential for a major move, or if it fails, it's back in the toilet, you dog!!!


----------



## Miner

did you mean POU or BMN ? Your chart shows BMN and I could not see POU in ASX. 

BTW you are in the money for BMN went up 17 % today

Enjoy with RIO too


----------



## Sean K

No, I meant POU has steadied, up $5 last week. Hopefully regain $75 ish which will be very positive. On the other hand it might get crumped with all the additional U comin on in the next few years too. Hopefully demand stays high and increases as expected. Anyway, I'm ready to dump this sick puppy in an instant if it goes back under 50.


----------



## Sean K

Also looking an NCM for a trade on a break through $26 ish. Looks prospective. 

Or, could short it expecting a failure at $26 I suppose...


----------



## Sean K

Hmm, BMN still running. Next major resistance around 75c. Could see that soon. Not sure if I'll hold to see, or take the money, and wait to see if 75c can be beaten...


----------



## Sean K

Big turnaround on BMN as it approached resistance. No one wants to hold this puppy for too long and people taking the opportunity to sell on a rally. Depending on how it looks Mon, I may go back under the couch.


----------



## Miner

apparently from their AGM notes on 24 Nov they are going to raise capital. IMO there were some activities which prompted the share to go up significantly between 24 and 26 Nov before falling on 27 . Probably as you said Monday/ Tuesday could. be a test casel


----------



## Miner

Sean

On another matter, did you have any chart on RMS ? YOu may refer to RMS site where we have asked your comments 

Regards


----------



## Miner

Me again

I tried to look into BMN thread in ASF, Did not follow earlier one. it was informative

I also noticed that you modified some one's posting there.

Are you also a moderator like Trader Paul. Dr  etc ?

Just curious 
Regards

 R_e: BMN - Bannerman Resources
Its well over 50c now

Start of a nice upward trend IMO.

(PS, I will remember to not pad posts next time. Sorry ASF)
*Last edited by kennas : 27th-November-2008 at 09:59 AM. Reason: added PS *_


----------



## Sean K

Yes, I'm a Mod, but Paul is not.

Mods are id by their name in big blue font. 

Made a comment in the RMS thread.

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

Sold BMN at 60.


----------



## MRC & Co

Good one Kennas!

I find day trading a whole diff ball game than normal EOD trading.  

As you have probably noticed by mainly trading the ASX mini and gold, you can't rely on the same specific set-ups you can use on EOD charts (whereby you can search for great setups in an array of diff charts and stocks and get plenty of time to set levels etc).  

Far more emotional I find!  But good fun on it's moments, other times, it's completely aggrivating!

Volatility has been great, but it's been DAMN TOUGH to trade hey!


----------



## Sean K

Bought some SRL @ 82 as a relatively short term trade.

The news that they are in discussions to sell off their holding in Straits Asia could be a real boon.

Forgot the value of their investment for the minute but it's like twice their cirrent MC.

Best I check, LOL


----------



## Sean K

I bought WOW and WBC back a week or so ago, and bought some AOE which I've sold because I got drunk and didn't like it anymore. 

Interesting action in the US today. Worst employment figures in 30 years and the market rallied. 

Seems like a fvckin lot of pain is factored into the markets now, and if the US is successful in printing itself out of trouble we might reverse pretty quickly and have another 10 - 20 years of positive moves before total destruction.

So, watching carefully to add more of these blue chips.

And, watching carefully to hide behind the couch again....

:couch


----------



## Sean K

emailed AZM last week and got a pretty positive response regarding their future. They are confident they have enough in the bank to go into 2009 and will start drilling again then.

I've locked in a capital loss containing one too many zeros but offsetting 07/08 cap gains. 

I really like the future of these guys with their land bank and already have 750k oz at good grades at surface after just a year of prospecting. 

Will be back in to this when there's some upward movement and the market seems to have factored all the damage in.

I would have held long term but have taken the opportunity to lock in a loss at this moment of uncertainty. 

Ready to fight another day.


----------



## Sean K

Well, gold still languishing but NCM once again pushing horizontal resistance at $26 ish and a strong down trend channel. If it holds up EOD will be consider a trade, on potential break up, but may wait to see if it can use the same line as support first.


----------



## Sean K

Decided that the strength of todays push breaking up from a short term pennant through resistance might hold.

Ready to sell if it fails, or add more if the break continues.


----------



## Sean K

This is going ok. Poked it's head through $1.00 today. Might take some off the table and then wait to see if it can crack $1.00. Not much resistance between there and $1.50.


----------



## Sean K

Cripes, what a misjudgement of what this correction was going to do to IO prices and hence all these juniors. 

Expensive lesson.

And also a lesson about FA and TA and it's value. 

In this case TA wins I'd say.


----------



## Sean K

OzWaveGuy;372704 said:
			
		

> Thanks for the feedback WP. Would be good to get another EWer more active in this forum
> 
> Fixed up your inbox yet? Seems it was full a couple of weeks back and was rejecting PMs



WP is permanently suspended for operating multiple multiple accounts. 

Other people you may know him by are:

Machi
Kinezikens 
Libba
Skyhawk
Stoner

You will not see him again. 

Hopefully other wavers join in and do not need to open up additional accounts and start praising themselves. 



			
				machi;123621 said:
			
		

> Incidentally I wonder how many people other than WP saw this last top in Zinc/ZFX?  Not many I bet.
> 
> KInd Regards
> 
> Machi






			
				skyhawk;326711 said:
			
		

> Hello All,
> 
> I am new to this website and this is my first post.
> 
> I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by wave picker.




Amongst other fine posts.


----------



## MRC & Co

Insane.  

That's all I can say.

Some people just love drama I guess.

He obviously loves his trading and EW though, so hope he continues it, does well, and pulls himself together.


----------



## nomore4s

Why would you bother, that is a lot of work to make you look good to a bunch of people you probably will never meet.


----------



## Sean K

I'm back into BRM at 51.5 and waiting to buy more or sell accordingly....

LOL


----------



## chops_a_must

Reminds me of someone I met in a psych ward. : :

Ever been to South Korea Kennas?


----------



## Sean K

Not to South Korea yet, no.

Were you in a psych ward there?

lol


----------



## chops_a_must

Hahaha... no...

Can go to South Korea to work apparently. Would love to... I think...


----------



## Sean K

You guys might remember my last post to 'stoner' in the XAO thread after he was calling a major bottom, which turned out not to be a bottom, and then I got this in my PMs:




			
				stoner said:
			
		

> I guess you have learnt a bit of Spanish on your travels kennas because you are all of the following:
> 
> -Montania de mireda
> -Iha de puta
> -pahero




Which actually isn't able to be translated to Spanish.

LOL

What he was trying to say was that I was a mountain of something, a prostitutes something, and a pahero, which might be a pajero 4WD....eeek


----------



## Naked shorts

Good, I hate stoners (try living with one and you will understand).

Doesnt puta mean bitch?

Perhaps he was trying to ramp the strategy so it would become self fulfilling


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Puta means *****.

I think Pajero is derogatory too, the Japs didn't call the 4wd Pajero in Europe.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Sorry it doesn't mean *****.

It means prostitute , 5 letter version.

gg


----------



## Sean K

Taken a few off the table at $1.10.


----------



## Sean K

Up around 90c now but I haven't added any more on the way which was a mistake. The large candle towards the end of Dec was the signal. Oh well..


----------



## Sean K

Put a few back on the table due to the bounce off the $1.00 region.


----------



## Sean K

Cripes,

Totally lost track of where I am and posting trades. Appologies, probably linked to the crash and not wanting to say how much I've lost!

Sold out of CBA and WBC today around even. Things are looking really bad and I think I might get them back at a lower price.

Now holding:

BRM
BMN
DMM
NCM
SRL 
WOW

Will sell them all if key support is broken.

Day trading is going as usual, CRAP! I have no clue whatsoever. I hit buy and the price goes down. I hit sell, and the price goes up. 

All education I suppose.....

Must post all my trades as a contra indicator for you guys!


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

How's the trading going Kennas?

Still day trading?


----------



## shag

yes kennas u sure r no blogger....
don't blame u being in lovely south america tho


----------



## Sean K

Sorry, I've actually been working voluntarily for my wife's travel company recently and being writing and reading and getting guitar lessons. Many competing priorities. Maybe linked to the market falling over and realising that the way I was trading and investing was out dated. No day trading through IG recently and actually thinking about cancelling the account so it's earning the cash rate instead of IG using it to pay debts.

I've recently bought back some AZM, and LGL more SRL and added some PDN and PRU.

So, holding:

AZM
BRM
BMN
DMM
LGL
MAK
NCM
PDN
PRU (bought some today)
SRL 
WOW

Must spend some more time on an investing blog and my other blog, just struggling with time right now.

Cheers!
Sean


----------



## shag

hi Sean
did you notice the depth differential on bmn has got better again, not that it mens much, i've got to learn more on momentum trading and indicators etc.
i've got to have a largish selldown soon, i'm hoping the obama goldrush bill holds the dow for a few days.
i'd like to hold bmn for takeover reasons.
mak for the chop i presume, tho given the enthusiasm of drummond etc i wonder if he will come up with generous benefactor.
i assume you are a gold bull, i've always liked lgl, i guess its a two way bet, if the cactus comes around calling then its relatively safe. better than gold under your bed like some.
one of the few correct calls of many that fat profits have made.
mac bank seems keen on some of them also.
at least 10/100k now goes a lot further in australasia than a year ago.
cheers shag
ps sad day for the bushfire victims, including the poor livestock.


----------



## Sean K

Hi Shag, yes long time gold bull but missed the bottom of the goldies. Missed some 100% gains unfortunately. Was to concerned about market implosion to catch them.

Bought a few BHP today on the seemingly clear break through $32.


----------



## shag

i've got to liquidate over a ton so i'll be reluctantly selling what i can easily. i'd like to see stocks like brm thru for the ride but so be it. bloody rain in sydney, so much for a heatwave.


----------



## Sean K

BHP buy is probably a bit pre-emptive. The resistance between $32-34 looks pretty solid. Should be shorting it here I think. LOL


----------



## shag

yes i figured on the bhp warrants(old fashioned i know but too lazy to fill out an options form) getting the chop as soon as i need to. i just like a gamble too.
i've tossed some away already.
holding up today anyway.


----------



## shag

i wonder if this conference in south africa is getting a few people over enthused.


----------



## Sean K

I thought The Big Australian (LOL) would have dived dramatically back under 32 today following the US bad lead but what the fvck? Seems lots of bad news is factored in and we need to read each individual chart not in conjunction with the other lemming charts. I note some EW specialists have this still in a W4 so it's on the way up to a short term peak and then down down through previous lows. Reading their well thought out opinion makes me want to bail, but I just think EW is a crock!! he he. Of course, will tank through previous lows now.....but not before I've make a killing on the short term strength... lol


----------



## Sean K

Strange move on BMN yesterday, up 25% or something on regular volume. Odd.

Gold up 3.5% today, looks good for goldies tomorrow.


----------



## Sean K

BMN was because they came out with a resource upgrade the following day. Grades are still crap, and I think the focus for explorers in Namibia is now with EXT because of their superior grades. BMN is just more advanced and I think they'll be taken over. Waiting, waiting...maybe waiting is a bad play? 

Added more NCM on the break up this am. 

Gold and gold stocks have gone for a great run, but wonder if it's starting to get overdone? Will be another correction soon you'd think.


----------



## JTLP

Kennas...back in Melbourne! Wow!

What part (north, south, east, west)?

Never knew you were a home town hero =)


----------



## Sean K

Hi JTC, Staying at a friends place in Fitzroy for the moment. Family is from Ringwood. Nice to be home and get some decent coffee. Hopefully get to a pre season game as well, play some golf with my dad and brother, and have some fish and chips on the beach down the Peninsula way.


----------



## Sean K

Sold BMN for about a k loss. EXT looks a far better option, even hough it's ran hard. Looking for an entry.

Sold WOW for about a k gain. $29 ish looks like a bit of a wall and I expect it to fall over. May pick it up again lower, or if it pushes through.

XAO hanging on to 3300 ish by the thread. Expect it to go through and make it's way to 27-2800. Good short opportunity if it pushes through the support.


----------



## Iron Man

kennas - what size capital are you using? and positoin sizing to make 1K?


----------



## Sean K

I had 1000 WOW, so only needed a 1.00 move. This was actually in my LONG term buy and hope portfolio, not really a short term trade, that I was going to add to, but I thought we were about to fall over another cliff as mentioned above, so best to stand aside for the moment for me. WOW BHP and PDN were my only planned only long term holds, the rest are short/mid term. These 2 were part of a long term plan for a buy and hope portolio with around 20 stocks, and short term discretionary trade with the rest of my capital. So, position sizing with WOW was eventually aimed at around 5%, about $50K.


----------



## Sean K

Added a handful more AZM today.


----------



## Sean K

> Added a handful more AZM today.



Pretty unusual stuff from AZM the past few weeks, punters chasing it up. I was one of them, but only added a few more k worth. Probably just a bit more risk being taken. Nice bounce from the 4c low to 10.5.


----------



## nomore4s

Nice work Kennas, what is your average price?


----------



## Sean K

Average price is 8c.  

However, took a nice capital loss on these guys of about $20K during the implosion. Sold out with the rest of the lemmings. If I had have held and bought more on the way back up, as I have, averageprice would be about 11c. Idiot!


----------



## Sean K

Gee, WOR and DOW look good for some short term gains. 

WBC looking at breaking out.

WPL looks bottomish.

Looks like some good opportunities appearing.

With stops.


----------



## Sean K

Nice breakout on AQA, must add some.

Also WBC broken up, must add. 

PDN looking good need some more.

Considering dumping LGL and NCM and focusing on the bouncers.

Keeping short term focus.


----------



## Sean K

Added some more PDN and new GIR yesterday.

GIR under cash backing and has an amazing pipeline of projects. Looks like a longer term no brainer. 

Should have bought some WBC and AQA but went to bed early.


----------



## Sean K

Added more PDN, ave cost now $3.20.

Sold half NCM, ave cost $29.50 ish sell $32.50. $2K beer money.

I should start posting my speadsheet again I suppose.


----------



## Sean K

> Sold half NCM, ave cost $29.50 ish sell $32.50. $2K beer money.



Nice profit take on NCM

Gold up $60 overnight.

Arrrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!



LOL


----------



## nomore4s

lol, I was actually surprised when I read you had sold some NCM normally you top up on the dips.


----------



## Sean K

Yeah, just a bit concerned that an equities run (that we're in) could turn gold nasty for a while. Right on the money there!


----------



## Sean K

Bought a few more PRU, ave price now .75

Bought some TLS for a short term trade at 3.08, target $3.45, re-eval $2.90


----------



## Sean K

SRL deal should be great news for holders. 

Looks like it'll gap up quite a bit and hopefully keep gapping up and up and up and up..lol

Will probably take a few off the table to lock in profits. Ave price is 90c so anything close to $1.50 will be handy.


----------



## Sean K

Absolutely positively flagilating myself over EXT.

Back before the share split a few years ago, I was trading this intraday as one of my first 'trading' experiences. Take a 0 off the price and that is where is was. 

It was ranging between 9 and 14 cents. I was completely all over the fundamentals and the technicals. Completely! One of the frst stocks I really investigated. However, I lost money on the short term trading. Maybe 10K or so. No big deal to me now, however, the psychological effect of losing out on it has prevented me from buying in on this recent break up. I have watched it, day by day, unfold, in front of my eyes. I'm gutted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You IDIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Arrrrrghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Miner, I have been adding to my blog. Just adding to my last 2 threads. Last addition to this was the graph on te first post with positions correct as at Friday. Will keep updating.


----------



## Sean K

Looks like some support being tested of some recent break ups incl BRM, SRL, PDN, and the like. XAO support will seriously tested at the 3500 mark I imagine. Lets have some nice healthy consolidation now shall we! Or, maybe we need another real shakeout? Or, maybe I should be at the beach?


----------



## nomore4s

Kennas, I hope you win this months stock tipping comp, lol


----------



## Sean K

Yes, would be nice. 

Where's hat bloody pullback so we can jump in boots and all?


----------



## Sean K

Bought some more GIR today, ave cost 38c.

Looks like POG is falling over to me and money is going to flow back into equities for a while. I think I'll be out of NCM and LGL and wait to see what happens.

Will also ditch TLS under cost as it's not going to plan. Was looking for a 50c bounce but it's just one sick puppy!


----------



## tedwilliams

Gees guys,
Don't waste your time waiting for telstra to pull the rabbit out of the hat, buy MQG or AAX, take your pick.
Look at their ex dividend dates MQG is about to cough up and AAX just did. Their share prices are going up and up and up, money to be made.
Regards Ted.


----------



## Sean K

Thanks for the hot tips ted. Cheers.


----------



## nomore4s

Ted you're a genius:bowdown:, why didn't I think of that - buy stocks that are going up.
How stupid am I:bonk:

And let me guess - I should buy them with CFDs on 90% margin so that the more they go up in value the more interest I pay.


----------



## Sean K

The last 'Where am I?' thread to keep track of things is getting a bit long, so thought I'd start a fresh one each week.

So, last week, bought:

some TLS at $3.10
more GIR at .45
more PRU at .74
more BRM at 1.18

Sold:

Remaining holding in NCM at 30.95.

Positions:


----------



## shag

geez another blog 
i was begining to think you'd forgoten u had a blog....
im not sure about telstra longterm as its likely to get broken by rudd like telecom nz.
dml finally came out with the announcement last week, after 6 weeks of abnormal trades.


----------



## Sean K

TLS is a grab the knife trade, and I've put quite a lot on it as I think it's a relatively slow mover. I'm still guessing that the last low was a capitulation low, but if defeated I'll be running to the hills, like everyone else probably will be. That'll be a good buying opportunity I suppose! LOL


----------



## Miner

Hi Sean

did you look into Silver Lake Resources currently at about 37 cents and recommended by State One Research as a target price of 67 cents. Eureka report published this story which is normally uncommon for them to do so.

What does your research say ?

Extracted from the report

_Silver Lake Resources (SLR)
27th March 2009
SLR - Daily share price
0.12
0.17
0.22
0.27
0.32
0.37
0.42
27/03/2008
27/04/2008
27/05/2008
27/06/2008
27/07/2008
27/08/2008
27/09/2008
27/10/2008
27/11/2008
27/12/2008
27/01/2009
27/02/2009
27/03/2009
Investment Data SLR
Share Price (cents) 33
Ord Shares fully diluted (m) 153
Market Cap ($'m) 50.6
Enterprise Value ($'m) 39.6
Options (m) (ex avg +30c) 26.1
Net Cash ($’m) 11.0
52 week Low/High (cents) 15/41
Company Officers
Les Davis Managing Director
Paul Chapman Chairman
Chris Banasik Executive Director
Peter Johnston Non Exec Director
Brian Kennedy Non Exec Director
David Griffiths Non Exec Director
Major Shareholders
Directors 16.25%
Eye Investment Fund Ltd 9.87%
Perilya 8.38%
State One Stockbroking Ltd
Head Office
Level 14, State One House
172 St George's Terrace
Perth WA 6000
Perth Tel: (+61 8) 9288 3388
Sydney Tel: (+61 2) 9024 9105
Email: broker@stateone.com.au
Web: www.stateone.com.au
Analyst
Sam Berridge
Tel: +61 8 9288 3302
Email: sberridge@stateone.com.au
Investment Case
• Currently generating $1.5 to $2.0 million in free cash flow per month
from the Daisy Milano gold mine.
• Cash and bullion up from $6.7 million at 31st of Dec to approximately
$11 million at the time of writing.
• Forecast NPAT CY2009 of $21 million versus current enterprise value
of $39 million.
• Continued improvements at Daisy Milano Mine and Lakewood
Processing Facility to lower cash costs and increase gold production.
• Additional tonnes from open pit operations expected to commence in
the 2H 2009 will result in an increase in gold production to +50,000
ounces per annum and reduce cash costs from ~$680/oz to
~$570/oz.
• Under ground mining at Daisy Milano is currently occurring in regions
outside the existing resource, indicative of resource expansion
potential.
• Growing cash reserves could enable a maiden dividend in 2H 2009 at
management’s discretion.
• The performance of SLR’s management team is exemplified in
producing its first tonne of gold at a cash profit just 13 months after
IPO.
• Management results to date and prior experience support the
expectation that SLR will grow into a solid mid tier gold producer (see
page 6).
• SLR is unhedged.
Summary of Company Operations
SLR is producing 35,000 to 40,000 ounces of gold per annum from the
Daisy Milano underground mine, located 50km south east from Kalgoorlie.
High grade (~10g/t) ore is trucked 45km to the 300ktpa Lakewood gold
processing facility located 5km south east of Kalgoorlie._


----------



## Sean K

No, but will have a look. Cheers.


----------



## shag

jeez u'll be on the red after tls today, i guess rudd is either pragmatic or balless . u will be able to buy not only a new dive suit, but a whole dive store...


----------



## Sean K

LOL shag. Haven't put that much on it.

In regards to SLR Miner, just had a quick lookie and it looks pretty interesting. Cash in the bank, unheadged, no debt, growing base, processing factility, 1.4m oz au at great grades nothing to sneeze at. Would be nice if that 1.4m was all in the one pit. That's my only misgiving, very scattered about which they seem to think is a good thing. Spreads the risk a bit I suppose. $60m mc seems reasonably low, haven't done a peer comparison on that, but the graphs they put up in their last pres against other juniors in WA make them looks pretty good. 

Will have to look some more..


----------



## shag

i suggest to have a look at tel, telecom nz, the graph of tens yrs over which it got competition and 'broken'. i realise yr trade is just a quick stab, so to speak. bmn still being chased hard.
really started hard at 2pm yeaterday.


----------



## Sean K

Well, sat on my hands this week. Boring.

Watched some value erode from a couple of stocks going through some consolidation, but at the moment happy to hold as the known funnymentals seem good.

Considering adding some more to BHP, SRL, BRM, and PRU (pending POG).

Also considering some of my 'Model Portfolio' stocks especially CBA, WBC, WOW, IPL, and either AOE or WPL. 

US up over 3% today so perhaps that drop to 2800 isn't coming any time soon. May have missed the most of this opportunity unfortunately.


----------



## shag

i added a little brm and pru this week. offloaded the handful of ago, as it seems to be going nowhere.
im considering droppping the mak, as u say, its going sideways and its dodgy african escapade.
ext was dumped seriously, hope bmn doesnt go the same way as its 80pc of my portfolio.
ext could be a go at 4 or under, now the squable is on. but even to me, i can see potential in the smallies.
a similar event like this occured 6 months ago or so, it got a bit dumped and rio was currently buying(up to 1.20 then) but let it fall thru a buck and stay there..


----------



## Sean K

My MAK is leftovers from having held from Jan 07. I'm actually waiting for a break through 62c to add some more. I suggest you watch that level in the future, because breaching there _may_ be the start of some higher highs. Still officially sideways until 75-80c broken though I think. That'll probably only happen if RP prices show definate stabilisation, or even head back up a little. Or, maybe some corporate action behind the scenes to take them over. I still don't quite fully understand the BON deal. Maybe they have access to some beneficiation plant in Namibia I don't know about. Otherwise there's going to be some heavy Capex costs in making it work. 

If POG steadies and then continues its rise, I'd anticipate PRU to be eventually re-rated to where it should be. On a W African peer comparison is one of the cheapest. Not to say it can't fall over though, there's a lot of stocks trading even under cash backing which is insane. SRL for example. 

BMN's had a great run. I was out about 75c so have missed this unfortunately. I just though EXT was the better bet.


----------



## Sean K

Looking closely at an opportunity with IVA too. Going to report an initial JORC on it's Merlin Mo/Re deposit possibly this week, which is the highest grade of it's type in the world. Market has already ran with it but it's correcting back to some sensible levels.


----------



## shag

yes i caught on this morning, but i suspect those taxi drivers r onto it now....
looks like support tested on bmn, im a aus resident so have to watch things now ie trading. oh how easy and backward nz is(re tax).


----------



## shag

too many stocks, too little free dosh....
i'd say u'll be kicking yrself over yr gir pick too soon.
iva still doing a runner, buggered i8f i'd dredge the crucial stuff up, build xpensive process plant and catch it via some flue, all for 300 bucks us. id say unless aus and k-stan finds loads more, its price can only go up. did someone say monoply....duopoly
less than au prices, au grades, as hard to produce as synthisising acid, and extremely rare....
mak up on very little news-well to me anyway.
oh brm nearly down on news, ago rocketing on yesterdays news, go figure.


----------



## shag

sorry mate but what r all those pidly trades in iva
someone keeping price up?


----------



## Sean K

The piddly little trades are a robot buying on behalf of a broker. The tell it how many to buy and at what price and they someohow manage to do it. I don't understand it all that well, but it's nothing sinister.

GIR still looking like it might break up soon. 

Market should go through a consolidation phase soon thoug so I expect all stocks to be effected and come off a little with it, unless they have some exceptional news.


----------



## Sean K

Keep an eye on Zinc producers. 

Last month:

PEM .15 to .35
CBH .04 to .12
TZN .45 to .75

Amongst others.

Not sure if we've missed the boat. Could be worth a quick trade if this run has just started.


----------



## Sean K

No trades last week. Been waiting for the pullback, which hasn't happened. 

I've been listening to too much EW hocus pocus I think and it's clouded my judgement. 

Should have bought GRY on the ann of the upgrade and extension of strike. Will on weakness perhaps.

Damn it's been a good couple of months! Should have been fully invested. Bloody Harry Hindsight didn't speak to me early enough.

Wish I had have seen the Zinc plays moving earlier, missed some good short term trades there. 

TLS doesn't seem to be bouncing as I'd hoped. Oh well.


----------



## shag

pdn seem to have opened their new african plant..
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72103?oid=82027&sn=Detail
thus its rise friday.
gry didnt look too decisive friday again, few trades untill someone i presume had to close for the week.
i never got any iva as it got away on me and a week where i was out of excess cash. i presume it ran too hard, too quick for you too.
was that ann. the one u predicted, or is it still to come?
i wish i'd read these forums more, than listening to fat profits mid-late last yr, when i was still keen to procure devastated stocks.
gry 5c to 25(presently)...pru, brm....


----------



## Sean K

The IVA ann? Not the one I expect. Waiting for the Mo/Re tonnage and grade, but by then, the potential stag gain will be gone. It's factored in now probably. I think I have missed the boat there, thus, I have not jumped in. I might be wrong, and the gains may be on the confirmation, but please check the mc of this beast. It's in the millions. Many, many millions now... I am preferring at this time to try and find some really small cap stocks who are undervalued and get them before they are truely rated. Like AZM perhaps. Like a GRY. Get into a small cap stock, with massive potential, but with some real assets in the ground, who have been panic sold off. There is a real opportunity (or was) to make an absolute killing in this market and we've not made the most of it imo. Absolutely kicking myself at the moment. I saw this, sold just about everything at the right time, and failed to get in at the lemming stage. I'm going to change my nic to 'goose'.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I like your pdn play. PDN is good stock but I got in too early last year and lost a motza. GO with it. I may join you again as a holder.

gg


----------



## shag

pdn seem pretty ignorant of the 4 buck 'barrier'.
is the next block near 6 bucks?
i sold the rest of my pdn warants yesterday to fund iva, but hoped to get back in post 4 bucks.
just so many prospective looking stocks.
but bmn seem worried about the dollar barrier...it was strong support on the way down...
i just cant bring myself to buy ext, short of liquidity too.
did u pay much attention to the imf report.
it wasnt good reading for australsia, but i have more faith in aus than the imf.
appologies re the language yesterday.


----------



## Sean K

PDN looks promising but on the long term weekly chart still not really broken through. The news out of China on nuclear energy development looks pretty bullish for the sector. 

I'm not sure how much EXT should be worth. They have an MC close to $1b don't they. Awesome project, but seems quite a lot for this stage of development. I'm interested in them, but maybe after a decent correction.

Haven't read the IMF report. 

I'm still thinking very long term there's going to be an awesome opportunity in the markets here. The century of Asia has only just began.


----------



## shag

yes, but the 24 or so new reactors were signalled well over a year ago. i think they have mentioned a handful more now, but it makes u wonder how long news and ideas take to perculate thru. 
the states needs a load too.
i listened to boardroom radio on iva, and obviously it was a ramp, but they seem to think its just the tip of the iceberg, ie it goes down like olympic dam(1 or 2? k down and still strong).
ie its possibly just a blob off of the main orebody thats been extruded from the depths of .... i guess we will see. overpriced but fun.


----------



## Sean K

KMN were tipping Kalman as an ODII as well some time ago. I spoke face to face with the GM stating so. The deposit is a turkey. 

My mention about the 'new' reactors was actually on top of the previous news I think. That may explain the recent price action. I suspect a few countries will ann additional nukes soon, maybe even australia one day. The problem is, there's uranium fvckin everywhere. Once all the potential deposits are into production the price of U will be a few cents a ton!


----------



## shag

did you also see deep yellow are onto one of those hi grade uranium lines like ext.
you wonder when bannerman will wander onto one.
olympic dam worries me re supply but i guess the big boys have done the sums.
i agree aus likely needs three or so power plants for desalinisation etc.
the states needs/plans for a load more of nucs also. all their infastructure needs work supposedly.


----------



## Sean K

The depth might be a problem for the DYL find. So far.


----------



## Sean K

Thought about taking some off the table this week but hesitated. I'm a bit confused with my plan at the moment. Hold long and add on dips until I see something overdone, or keep actively trading conserving capital.  Confused generally about the market really, so perhaps that's the reason. Another serious leg down into depression oblivian, or or the bottom in.  Still have a pot of gold uninvested and the margin loan is calling out to me.


----------



## shag

you seem to have gone on holiday early....
i think the only decent news from an otherwise boring week too me was that some scientists(australian?) showed that the antartic is growing, thus dispelling all the scaremongering going on about the collapse of the ross ice shelf.
plus the nasdaq showing good signs of life....


----------



## Sean K

Yeah, just trying to get my head around the markets at the moment and be patient. I don't think it's going to take much for this rally to really fall over. Just some momentum selling really. This is a nice bear rally, but not the opportunity I have been waiting for. No capitulation at the bottom of this, although maybe that was done some time ago? I'm not even sure if I'll sell up when I go to Mexico so I can really have a holiday or keep in touch every night. Taking the laptop, but I think I might prefer sun set drinks on the beach instead of looking at a computer screen. Last May I was in the Brazilian Amazon and Venezuela for the month and that was when my portfolio really really fell over and I couldn't manage it. I'll see what the wifi's like I suppose and just see. Obviously not holding many stocks but have quite a few $ in them. Should be easy to tidy it up. Hm, rambling a bit. Off to the gym...


----------



## shag

u might want to take some tamiflu to mexico if the outbrake gets hold
it seems to work on this one, its a hundred buks or so but it keeps. u take it within 24hrs of showing signs of temperature etc, and it knocks many virsuses about.
one day soon one of these viruses will take hold and clean a few out.


----------



## Sean K

Not too worried at the moment, seems confined to central north Mexico and south USA. Will only take one person on a flight to Cancun to cause it to hit where I'm headed though. Have my eyes out. This could be troubling. I'm probably buying BTA for a trade on the open tomorrow.


----------



## shag

they seem a bit worried about this one, its already well out. concerned about it mutating. its a weird mix of genes too, and very communicative.
mexico only got onto it weeks later after the states hammered them. it will be in aus already.
a trading opportunity i guess as u indicated.
quick to dispell bioterrorism too.....mexico isnt usually the place these things r evolved, usually in the worst parts of asia.


----------



## Sean K

Bought a handful of MEL at 50.5.

Looks undervalued and (hopefully) bouncing off uptrend line. Will add on break through 60.


----------



## shag

i think i did too
the nz news on the virus doesn look grea
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/2364745/Swine-flu-passengers-into-isolation
it may be hot air but they r treating it seriously.
nz hearald is good nz sie too. they have some who travelled from states 2 weeks back being tested....


----------



## sagitar

Hi Kennas, really enjoy reading your blog - excellent work. I've recently bought into MEL as well which is not only undervalued but technically showing some classic textbook setups, ie in this case a LT ascending triangle. It's interesting watching the intraday activity as the big punters consistently come out around the support levels. If 60c break I'm seeing targets in the low 90ish cent region, although if there's some positive news (ie, from BP), the sky's the limit here, so to speak. I think the market is hanging out for news on this...hope it won't be long.

Anyway, keep up the great work. Your adventures in Peru remind me of my awesome childhood years in Lima, although a lot has certainly changed since then. 

Buena suerte y hasta pronto.


----------



## Sean K

Yes fingers crossed with MEL. All things being equal should see it re-rated eventually. Might just be a waiting game. Hopefully the market doesn't implode in the meantime and take us with it. I'm pretty new to studying CSM plays so I'm not 100% sure about it. 

Thanks for your kinds words on my blog. I've been a bit lazy recently and haven't putting anything to print. Going to Mexico for May (I hope), so will be updating my adventures then. 

Childhood years in Peru? You're Peruana/o?


----------



## shag

hi mate
the market seems pretty resilient, like a threat of a pandemic and it ignores it pretty much after a good rally and every man and their dog predicting another leg down.
u presume they won't announce too much bad news in the stress tests, why would u.
sideways for a while?
at least if u go to mexico it might be quiet....


----------



## Sean K

It sounds like the Yukatan Peninsula is OK so it still should be noisy Mexico there. 

PDN looks like it's clearing $4.00....


----------



## Sean K

Will be buying more PDN if the break is confirmed eod which it looks like it already has. 

Bought a handful of ICN.

Still concerned about the next break down looming....


----------



## shag

i started looking at icn too from yr comment. csg is grt but how much, how soon do we need....
awesome potential, easy to produce too it seems. and aus has so much coal, but china has more, far more i believe-nasty coal. it still must produce csg.
this viral thing is still a worry, nz seems pretty active on it, if it gets worse will they let u out of mexico...


----------



## Sean K

Peru isn't doing anything about checking people coming in from Mexico yet I think. Yukatan Peninsula is untouched at this stage. Was emailing a friend there today and it's business as usual. I think it's good to be prudent with these types of things but it's looking like a beat up to me.


----------



## shag

good on u. i guess worse could happen, like a massive rally while u're away.....
at times like this i wish i had more capital.


----------



## Sean K

Well, the odds are I walk away from about 40% gains and they all implode and go bankrupt in the short time I'm laying about on a Caribbean beach drinking Margaritas. Arrghhhh!


----------



## sagitar

Hi Kennas, yes I'm also new to trading CSG players so will see how it unfolds.  No, no soy un Peruano although still retain my nationality there...might visit relatives there again one day  I trust you've visited Cusco - incredible place and still one of the things on my life's "bucket list". 

Careful going to ol' Mexico - if Montazuma's revenge doesn't get ya, Swine might. Take care.


----------



## shag

sorry to blog yr blog, but have u noticed bmn has some life again. i was concerned that ext, dyl and the rest might push it to the sidelines.
i know what resource, even given the current mk values, that i'd prefere to mine first.
csg in the longer term must be a real earner, to me its a better form of hydrocarbon energy than petroleum.
i'm new to it too, but it seems u dont need to do so much to your resource to keep it flowing, like oil wells, not to mention oil shales.
i ignored it for so long as i couldnt get my head around how much gas it produced and relatively easily.


----------



## Sean K

Yeah, BMN bounced off support really well. Was watching. 

No idea about oil and gas and CSM. I should stay away from it really. Seems so hit and miss.


----------



## sagitar

Hi, yes I would have to agree as well, BMN appears to be forming a sym. triangle, may test support at ~1.05c in the short term before possibly attempting to break LT resistance at 1.15c. If so, then she'll be off...

btw, regarding csg's, nice summary by YT on the MEL thread.


----------



## Iron Man

Sagitar BMN is not a sym triangle? its a long flag at best a channel. This channel has broken and price going sideways.The main point is that it bounced offthe 50% retract.
I have the stock and looking at not sure why I bought it . Also look at volume its falling. IMO. Cheers check out my blog!!


----------



## nomore4s

Kennas, I've been meaning to ask why you call YT LN?


----------



## Sean K

Because he's a Little Noob.



He put up a chart once and said he was a little noob at TA. So, he's stuck with it now.


----------



## Sean K

SRL I love you. 

he he


----------



## nomore4s

> SRL I love you.
> 
> he he




lol, me too.:1luvu:


----------



## Sean K

Bought some MEL and ICN this week. The CSM sector is pretty hot, MEL looks undervalued and they both look good chartwise to me.

Tempted to take some off the table (broken record) but I'm being greedy. And I know what happens when you start being greedy.


----------



## shag

u've done well on the csg. i wish i had cash for icn.
stress tests next week should be interesting...maybe what the market needs out of the way to make a move.
i find it odd bhp hasnt done much, rio? surely the chinese deal looks worse as things march on. will bhp move the market above its ceiling.
lots of people trying to talk the market down.
nasdaq 8 week running streak.
talk of less than a 40pc decrease in io prices, surely positive. bhp, rio vs vale re market share, plus pushing small operators to the wall. plus move to spot markets longterm.
seems diverging news re pdn and its reasons for new u expansion.


----------



## Sean K

I'm still learning CSM, so not sure on those. I looked closely ar ECU and decided on ICN. ECU then went up 70% in 3 days or something. lol

BHP is boring me, but I do want to buy a solid base of 'blue chips' that will steadily gain and that I can borrow off. Waiting for the banks to correct so I can buy some WBC and CBA again. Might be after the stress test!

I'm disappointed the focus on PDN last week was about it making acquisitions. I'd prefer someone like BHP or Areva saying they want to make some U acquisitions in Africa. And damn disappointed in the QLD Gov not allowing mining. Quite rediculous really. It's for clean energy, not bombs!!


----------



## Sean K

SRL, marry me!!


----------



## nomore4s

lol, too late, I've already proposed. Although I'm also in love with MND it just keeps going up.

What happened to your "Gav" avatar? Got sick of beating the women off? lol


----------



## Sean K

Wondering when to take profits on some of these stocks that have run hard. I'll just be greedy and hold until they fall over probably. 



> What happened to your "Gav" avatar? Got sick of beating the women off? lol



Didn't want to look like a wanker for too long.


----------



## nomore4s

I'm just setting a stop at a certain level on some of them and moving them up as they run and then letting the market do it's thing. Was going to exit WES but it has smashed through resistance @ $23 today so I've just put my stop just under where I was going to exit and will now see what happens.



> Didn't want to look like a wanker for too long.




Was pretty funny though.


----------



## Helmie10

Gees, first time I've checked your blog but after the results from these 3 i might have to subscribe.


----------



## Helmie10

Now at 1.72 another wise choice!!


----------



## Sean K

Maybe ICN wasn't such a bad choice.


----------



## shag

yes, i'd say the companies r as leaky as their product.
i like this market going against all the sceptics.
bhp moving, but surely rio's elevaion is due to a bhp-rio deal?
sure its got to correct one day, but people still need to put their dosh somewhere.
icn has a nice uptrend too from my squiz at it.


----------



## Sean K

GIR is being a champ so far this week. 
PRU trading halt for a suspected $70m raising in Nth A. Not sure how the market will view it once it comes out. 
Nice triangle forming on BRM.
I thought MAK had broken up, but sellers have destroyed it. 
SRL, kiss kiss.
TLS, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


I like the look of the AWE chart. 
BPT looks like it's bottomed.
I'm going to jump off a tall building if AQA keeps running away.


----------



## prawn_86

Before you jump off that building transfer your stocks into my name please  Or appoint me Director of Maxcap


----------



## shag

tls is a dog, a three legged old one, with rabies at that, esp when so many others r out there. i like he idea of the two banks having a duopoly, they r screwing kiwis more than here, predictable tho. i hate banks.
good pru gave us 'a look in'
gir only gave me a few shares before i ran away sadly.
i just bought some lime/dolomite, god its a rippoff. 60 a ton. 
just crushed rock, from an enormous local resource.
i worked out i could waste 4k on the very small block for lime alone, let alone the npk products.
i'll be keeping an eye on mak and yr charts thanks.
despite some farmers loading up on debt when they got greedy, prices r so hi for dairy and beef, ie the products still get piled on. dairy bottomed a few months back for fonterra.
when and how did u turf yr dmm, i still hold, pidly amount tho.
oh, why i posted, was i saw today how the pru statement was due to a tax haven holder, seems rather popular, and went to the ato site, and right on the front page it had a speel about an amnesty on such matters. i can just see all the crooks, read bikers thru to bankers, lining up at the ato.
i just rang the ato, i now partly know why u'd flag them and get setup in say vanuatu, much easier.
seems the australasian gov's r jumping on the throw the carbon tax out for a bit, bandwagon. must be good for resources.
anz is going to get sued in nz over misleading investment advice, one action of many id say.
more fees for us no doubt.


----------



## Sean K

> Before you jump off that building transfer your stocks into my name please  Or appoint me Director of Maxcap



I was on the edge of the balcony wabbling over this, this morning. I declared AQA an outstanding breakout about 120% ago. You f*ckwit!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Sean K

I'm out of MAK at 57 for about a 60% gain. The RP price has been advertised at USD$120 and looks to have crumbled. I'm not sure if it will recover or not to make Wonarah economical. I'm going to watch see what RP prices do, and the chart action for clues. I did think going through 62 bullishly was an excellent sign, but failing and dropping through that level again makes it look like a clear yapper.


----------



## Sean K

Added another 50% to my PRU position at 84.

Raising 75m at 82c and are giving a 1 for 10 offer to holders, so I may or may not join depending on price action. Looks like a great price for a raising considering the past few months run. 

Great projects, won't be independant for much longer.


----------



## shag

hay mate
like im no zoologist but that tiger looks plain old tame to me, fat n old looking too...
im not volentering and all that, but i reckon if u patted the fella on the head, he'ld roll over and purr.
talking about animals, bmn sure rewarded me this week, down, while the market was on fire.
i tried for some pru, but like azm, i just chased the thing up.
re azm, back a while ago, i'd put in a azm bid, only to be pipped at the post shortly after.
u must be p-ssed at bhp vrs rio...i guess we may again see a bhp-rio tieup or beneficial sales. chinese walls, what a load of ...., look at the forest case.
fat profits put awe as a buy this week, on fundamentals plus chart. they have good potential in the taranaki basin(tui etc).
we will never see another market like this one will we, and i was in in the 80's. god its been an interesting couple of yrs.
hope u get yr holls soon, but u wouldnt want to miss a real rally...


----------



## Sean K

Damn, this is a bad time not to be actively trading. So many opportunities, so much holidaying to do. 

Uno mas tequila por favor!


----------



## Sean K

No, that tiger is definately on the prowl! 

Funny, I bought RIO at the ABSOLUTE bottom, along with AOE, CBA and WBC just on a knife catch premise, and then sold them after small profits. And what happened? Arghhhhh!! I didn't manage those trades well in retrospect. I may get another chance.

AZM 4c to 14c  No courage to back my judgement there either.. aaarghhhhh.


----------



## Sean K

MEL and ICN running like champions. Go, Coal Seamers! Go!! 

And big hugs SRL! :1luvu:


----------



## shag

yes i followed yr lead yesterday and today. ditched some mak dog(short of redies otherwise i'd sit on it) and a little bmn, to get some more pru at 905, and mel at 605.
i was thinking of yr srl u greeedy ....., u will need to extend yr chart soon to accomodate it. i thought bmn was going to be my gold maker....
i should grab some icn, but i always worry about how far they have run.

budget night, i remember back on the farm, u'd stock up on gas and booze as they always put the price or tax up. 
i presume they will announce something of significance re yr tls play.
what a run gir has had.
maybe put a yarn down on yr dives or something.


----------



## Sean K

Not sure why I still have TLS? Any suggestions? lol
ICN has run a bit hard. Always hard to take a position after jumps like that. The hardest thing then is watching them run further. Like EXT! aaargghh!
I will buy MAK again when it holds above 62, but only as a chart trade initially. The fundamentals on RP are to opaque for me. 
I keep on saying it, but we're due for a correction. A real one.


----------



## Sean K

Market is telling me in my dreams that it's about to fall over, but several stocks are saying 'buy me!'.

Bought more MEL on break through .62. So far.


----------



## panikhide

I think you have to realise that EXT runs when large investors (like RIO) take a stake in it. Once they have taken their slice of the pie and stop buying the price is likely to fall in line with the buying pressure that is removed and profit takers (like me - sorry - I got in at around $2.60 and doubled it). The point is, you can't predict that sort of demand and if you try to take advantage of the dips you might be buying a stock at a price that is halving.


----------



## Sean K

So when did RIO start and stop buying?


----------



## shag

hope the hols r going well
i dont think id want to be short bhp with the present goings on. azm in trading halt. gold holding up
i've got bugger all mak now. bmn had a spike yesterday, near identical to the last one to sub 1.30. i should have sold, but u r always sus about it running away like u say or some inside news leaking. i presume it was just someone buying up. 
id love to buy more gas but i hate sellling anything.
its a bit boring fri and mons here, with the market being out of syn with america.


----------



## Sean K

I hope AZM give me some cheap shares, along with the sophisticates. I also hope the recent run wasn't orchestrated to get a decent price in the raising. Hmmmm.

I'm quite concerned about the market right now. Thinking that we could capitulate. Considering taking half of everything off the table. Hmmmmmm


----------



## shag

u that wary? i know the markets been sloppy at going near 4000, but theres few out there going on about extremely bearish matters.
gry sneaking ahead. funny how bmn often does good on bad days and vice versa.
yr tls must be better than money in the bank anyway.
i need a decent house, once i make a few million, i figure the eastern suburbs may have some ok places on sale re mid tier stock and money spruikers going bust.
maybe i should go out and stake some desert, pick up-for a sizeable dumpage fee, some nice radioactive waste, and dump it in said desert, then float the thing.
i see that tiger hasnt died of old age yet. has it any teeth left?


----------



## Sean K

Hard to keep track of things when I'm laying on a beach, but I'm trying.

Lost some money last week, but the markets holding up, God damn it!!!


----------



## Sean K

Watching ICN for making good support above 30.
PDN should have quadrupled investment months ago! aaargggh
TLS still have, but it's holding so better than in the bank.
If MEL bounces off the 60 level I'm more in.
If MAK bounces off 50ish and strides through 62, I'm in again. 
BRM looks to have hit a terminal point and needs to be sold.
GIR I have no idea what it should be sold at. A mystery stock!


----------



## Sean K

Tiger still has a few teeth. 

He's a very wary tiger though.


----------



## Sean K

Bought more PDN on break up.


----------



## shag

yes i was hoping to get some, icn, but i dont have free cash presently.
azm climbing, another i wish i had free cash for. id have to sell some bmn. dmn also creeping up.
we will have to pick up iour pru entitlements soon too.
gry looks good, but i've few of these too. just no readies, all in bmn.
my few iva r just waiting for olympic dam version two....
few of these too.
cold n wet n windy sydney way.
yr tls might go up when i pay my phone bill. i havnt paid it since well into last yr. they gave me c-ap service, so i am giving them the same re paying the bill.


----------



## Sean K

The spread on GIR is giving me the geeebies. Reminds me of the crash last year. A 5c spread will cost me about 4.5K to sell the fu*cker. Arrrghhh!!! Others will be willing to do it. Missed a grand opportunity to scalp this biscuit! Goose! Now, it seems I'm going to watch it slip off the screen...Damn illiquid specs...


----------



## shag

pdn thru 5 buks...u must be buying cases of tequila after that.
to me its got 6 buks written all over it, from watching it go down and losing on the way down.
wpl is nearly up to the same level at that period too. bhp aint.
i loathe spreads too, but i guess its one tool u traders use re arbitradge. thats partly how i wondered u managed to get shot of yr dmm.
i like these rallies when every man and their dogs saying correction/crash. i presume u r getting shot of yr gir today or in a dillema now whether to hold or not.
with an impending ato visit im a bit hesitant re offloading much.
rather than call yrself a goose, just admit that that tiger has no need for dental appointments anymore.
protectionisim is being threatened re america and the old europe. now that stuff could really ruin trade.
fonterra in nz would b screwed, as well as all the debt burdoned diary farmers.
with this sort of .... being thrown around, i'd say asia and its cohorts growing even stronger longterm. from my limited economic knowledge, it just doesnt help the proponenets longterm, fiscallywise as i see it.
ironically this weekends iron ore negotiations commentory, mentioned how the chinese were warning that setting too low a price will ruin the local ore market, thus more dependant on bhp-rio(i still can't see how the two cant get togeather in some form and won't).
spear a nice fish for me, groper r good. here they seem to keep them as underwater pets rather than spear fodder.


----------



## Sean K

PDN has been a dream.....I love you more than SRL now PDN! kiss kiss...
Sold a third GIR ave 65. If she fails at support, bye bye. If the potential H&S hold UP, then will be back in for more.
Missed CDU, God damn it!!! arrrghhhh.
Holding BRM, but should have sld half on breakdown through $1.10, but I was holidaying too much when that happened. 

Is The Chartist punishing me for making a negative comment? LOL


----------



## Sean K

Sold all TLS at break even. WOOF!!!


----------



## shag

yes some there seem to have ego's on that thread. pedantic comes to mind. like that prat who mentioned a 12mill hedge fund at mac bank. like i'd have a problem with saying mac bank for a start but thats me(it wouldnt be around had the gov/mates helped them out with the very extended shorting ban for a start), but mentioning dosh, and 12mill at that...
saying that it could well be a good service but its sure getting good pr or ramped.
it was a grt laugh anyway getting a grammer lesson and all.


----------



## shag

sorry to blog yr blog mate, but did u see todays chart, what a good looking chart. it makes me want to learn more/some tech trading. totally linear comes to mind, no need for ew crap to read this one.
yr pdn rode the wave well for u.
hope the holidays going well, i had a squiz at yr site.
im just sitting doing squat, as i am paying back my bro a residual 60k, which i owe him.
gir had big gaps/spread too at times, on the way back up.
i think i need to get serious, to get some real dosh.


----------



## Sean K

hey shag, which chart?

GIR has bounced well, but I've sold half holdings now for about a 60% gain. Considering buying in again after todays close. lol

PDN going realy well. Like a few of these, regtret not backing up the truck more. I saw the opportunity, and tip toed in. Oh well, just have to wait for the next opportunity.


----------



## shag

just the all ords, lovely linear march upwards.
it impressed me anyway. charts really do talk when the markets playing ball.


----------



## Sean K

IPL break through $2.50 and I'm jumping on the train. toot toot!


----------



## Sean K

IPL through $2.50 late in the day, but the market must consolidate soon!!!!!!

Arghhhhhh.

Looks like 3750 on the XAO is holding.

Confounding!!!!


----------



## Sean K

Bought just a few on the close above $2.50. Market will collapse now, sure bet.


----------



## shag

look at this for a pad, queenstown nz. a mates partner is doing the rock anchors. supposedly arnies(Swartzenegger) new pad.
http://www.jaggededge.co.nz/
its designed for its views.
queenstown/central otago is grt for skiing, and other sports. an odd area, unique. no dive tho.
be a test today on the market. i have faith.
had a quiet millitary conference/meet there a couple of yrs ago, anzac's and states. the big boys.


----------



## Sean K

Wow, hope they don't get strong winds there.

And, wouldn't want the heating bill turning up to my place each month. eeeek!


----------



## Sean K

Looks like we're about to test this level again, and I actually hope that we break through and shake out some tired hands and day traders, to set the foundations for the next leg up. 

Target from the H&S breakdown here is 3500, which is also some horizontal support. It would be pretty bullish if we hold that level and bounce, but some are calling another low. 

Whatever happens, going to be another opportunity to put granny's kidneys on the line.


----------



## nomore4s

I'm surprised your Granny has any kidneys left.

By the way I'm still in love with SRL:1luvu::blover:, you can have PDN


----------



## Sean K

Yes, you're right, no kidneys left.

On to hearts now.

Next leg down, it's a great opportunity to put a heart on the line! 

Or two!!!!


----------



## Miner

have you looked into AZS ? It has raised or raising money but has great potential IMO. May be the MD Patrick influenced me a lot in the Uranium Meet at Perth


----------



## Sean K

> have you looked into AZS ? It has raised or raising money but has great potential IMO. May be the MD Patrick influenced me a lot in the Uranium Meet at Perth



Had a brief look but not sure what potential you are looking at Miner.


----------



## shag

keep an eye on discovery metals, dml, longterm. again.
fat profits ramed them, but they have one hell of a long and shallow cu and ag prospect.
i could email their rub if u ever wanted.
it seems they have enough on surface material, they can just pick a pile and develop the lot as they flow dosh.
some of the grades appeared strong to me. strong n long.
cu and ag seem a good bet too. i'll post  it here so it doesnt look as if im ramping the dog again.
it may not be an olympic dam, but its africa and an easier open miner job. and long.
u neded to stop reading these blogs too, and have a holiday. i guess u've seen aus is getting full of swine flue, ironic re two weeks ago. the first death here will shock. the bio companies will/have done well. ive got my tamiflu but it has to mutate before it creates real issues, and each person it touches, the closer that is. 
maybe gg has been spreading it around.


----------



## Sean K

Summary of last week:

Sold half GIR. Been a handy pick up.
Sold TLS. Woof. 
Bought just a handful of WCL, watching price action to buy two handfuls. 
Bought a few more PDN.


AZM had a good week. Should have bought more on hold above 10, but I'm off my game.
Have the PRU entitlement to take up. Not sure how I'm going to do that from the beach in Mexico.
ICN in trading halt for capital raising. Hopefully Mr M likes it.

Overall up 30% this year, so happy about that, but Harry tells me could have been better if I had any balls and bought around where I thought a bottom was. Oh well, other opportunities await.


----------



## Sean K

That long awaited pullback to put in the rest of my cash has simply not materialised. Incredible run in the markets. 

PRU great break up from the pennant yesterday, will have to add more.
Looking at more AZM also.
Maybe BHP, which has held above $34 ish support now and is looking good. 
IAU outstanding break also, and will probably add some tomorrow.


----------



## Sean K

Topped up a couple more AZM at .15
Doubled BHP at 36.50
Added just a few more IPL at 2.84

Watching the others mentioned
Also watching ROC as a potential break up from a pennant


----------



## pan

you buy any IAU?


----------



## Sean K

Not yet. 
Nor PRU, or ROC.


----------



## nomore4s

BHP buy now looking very good, well done


----------



## Sean K

Cheers and followed through to BRM and GIR. Hopefully they keep running in later days and it's not just an anomoly.

Flagilating myself again over not getting into AQA. GOOSE!!!


----------



## Sean K

This week:

Doubled BHP holdings, may even do so again.
Bought 50% more AZM which has taken the average buy price to around 10c, and has subsequesntly knocked down the overall % gain.
Bought IPL ave $2.65, on the breakthrough $2.60. Looks like it was crashing until the BHP/RIO news pushed everything up.

PDN hasn't given me the oportunity to buy again the bugger. Just kept running...
Looking at more BRM on break through $1.20. This BHP/RIO thing could make solo players run for some time. 
Watching my CSG plays closely (ICN, MEL, WCL)and thinking of adding depending on the price action. One bad well and they'll crap out, but any decent upward moves could mean M&A action. 
SRL, love you long time. See you back at $5.00 in a few months. Will transform into a 42 ft ketch by then. kiss kiss.


----------



## shag

yes i was wondering when u might buy the queen mary. but remember just up the road on bondi theres a dive platform, just waiting to be hooked up to a car and relocated. id do it, but im a bit close.
bhp must be a winner. the deal of the century. what a week for australia. no recession, and the big australian.
will the chinese view this as a pommy stuffup or an australian conspiracy. they have long memories.


----------



## Sean K

Diving off Bondi? eeek!

I lived in Cronulla for 2 years and did a bit of diving off the rocks there. Eeeeeeeeeekkkkkkkk!! 16 degrees. Did get to see some nice Leafy Sea Dragons off Kurnell, but otherwise, eeeeeeeekkkkkk!!!


----------



## shag

i mean a boat mate. i'd dive bondi, but hell im from nz where the water is always artic material, and no vis. i'm used to having to dive in tasman surf as bad if not worse than bondi, u hold onto big rocks in surges and get mauled too. but then when u r young n dumb and hungry for cray.
u'd put yr nose up to a crevace looking for cray(holding on for life), usually with only a foot or two of vis, and u'd be lucky if there wasnt a big conger eel looking back at u. to me, conger/moray eels make sharks look friendly.
we dived the coast directly southwest of bondi, the top of the west coast of the south island. its not flash for a dive, rarely got calmish.
they have pet groper at clovelly that make ok dives.
in nz its all cold and murky unless well offshore from what i know. in a 7mill wettie who cares, helps with the rocks too.


----------



## shag

oh to make it really fun, we had to usually lug our tank, weight belt, beer etc down a largish hill.
then sans beer, lug paua, cray, a wet wettie, and a slightly lighter tank etc, up this bloody hill, then near two hrs on crap roads return to semi civilisation-more beer tho....then a big cookup.
the old man complains now that i *always *came home sans crays and paua too, so presumably somehow it all got consumed/'lost' on the slow liquid trip home. nothing like a steinie, big bot of DB or warm 4x after a dive and tons of salt water. and by the next time u consider the dive, all the pain has been forgotten.


----------



## Sean K

IPL looking tenous imo. Really needs to hold above $2.50. When the inevitable market correction hits, it could be punished. I've picked this as a LONG term stock though. As in, hold through the entire crisis type stock to come out the other end and run back to old highs type of thing. I'm confusing myself by wanting to cut losses early here though. So, I'm just not sure about how confused I am...


----------



## Sean K

Bought some SUN pre-empting break through $6.50, maybe for a LONG term turn arund story. QLD worries me though.
Adding more ICN yesterday.
Maybe a few more BRM tmw.
IPL, holding looks ok.
SRL, hug hug kiss kiss.
Looking at WBC, CBA, maybe WOW, for LONG term buy and hope portfolio.


----------



## shag

did u see there was a good looking white tiger in nz that ate the zookeeper a week back. now that would make a better avatar.
poor fellas dead now tho, the tiger. guess in todays pc world u cant have a tiger with a rep. like that, like.... hey kids, thats the fella that had the black dood for breakie last week.

anyway, any idea on cheaper ways to get dosh from a nz bank to aus, ie currency exchange. i currently use ausforex, but on 4-5 ton nz a yr, 1 or 2pc adds up. i asked on a fx forum but got singed-tho i didnt choose a particularly relevant fx forum, but there appears to be none.
dosh comes in blocks of 10k, adding up to that sum per yr approx.
maybe i could buy nz gold...suitcase it and cash it here, but i doubt thats efficient either and bugger going back there.
i might need to hedge too one day, since the nz/aus cross appears fundamentally to be a slippery slope, but thats a seperate issue.
see the nz sas will formerly be off to afghanistan soon again. they have been prepping nz for a death. timor must have been interesting.


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## Sean K

Yeah read about the tiger. Odd that an animal born in captivity would eventually turn. Just goes to show the basic instincts run pretty deep. 

Not sure about other means of transferring money. You can cappy $10K into the country can't you? Maybe it's cheaper to fly it in and out with the cheap airfares going? 

Hadn't read about NZ sending SAS back in. Are they working with the Australian group?


----------



## shag

re fx its converting the stuff, i get moneys/it in nz dollars, which i really need in aus dollars. i guess ill just try to negotiate a better rate. i just get pissed at paying so much in bank fees, ozeforex is macbank i think. even if u buy aus stock in nz it has to go thru a currency conversion(one which the banks fleece u).
doesnt really matter i just wondered if some guru had a better fx company or method. people must wire large amounts all the time and u presume sometimes they change currency.


----------



## shag

awe fuk, i just got a phone call and missed the open so purchased some stock on yesterdays order.
im a little premature re the nz sas, but they r signalling they will take out the engineers etc out of bamian, and replace them with 65 sas.
they might put them with another unit, why put yr top squads togeather? sounds like its really messy at times. id like to see the gunship at work. the tallies must dread it circularing above them.
isnt it odd how they have bought in the two biggest and seemingly old dead dogs back from vietnem, ie the daisy cutters and the gunships. the gunships must be damn effective nowadays with computer controls and live feeds.
bugger being under that hellfire.


----------



## Sean K

I am very surprised that the NZ SAS are not still there along side our SASR. Even just a troop (or part of) as part of a squadron. They have worked together quite a lot recently. I think the NZ Army have just been stretched recently so maybe thet's why. Will be more surprised that when the Dutch leave Australia and NZ don't form an ANZAC Brigade with support from others...


----------



## shag

yes they probably have been all along, just not officially. better than sitting at home. when they get too bored or unused they join up with the poms and tag along.
it doesnt take much to stretch the nz force, whats left. some idiots proposed again no millitary for nz recenty. they forgot all the ancillary roles they provide like search and rescue.
over there the thinking is very different to aus re allies and defence.
they r still paying for the nuclear debacle and will for yrs to come. it was just so rediculous and poorly managed back then, we all could have lived with the US compromise.
maybe lange got bullied behind the scenes, and got pissed, but then when the french bullied him re the terrorists, he gave in. hes dead now anyway so we will never know.


----------



## shag

oh i saw yr iron ore chart. it was good, despite it being too large for my screern and me too lazy to scroll across.
i presume u realised as soon as u put it up, it was out of date re ago's activities.
fat profits spruiked cok this week, and coincided with a rise. so i guess that means we r in for a new bull market and plenty of people have forgotten the little fact the world is still in recession, plus how much they have lost listening to them.
hope u r too busy going around the boat yards to not update yr blog....maybe that packer idiot will sell his tinny soon? i hope hes not reading yr blog in an attempt to curtain his massive loses despite knowing all the boys in power.

oh while on such issues, maybe i need to do a 'bigdog' on the bmn site, so to mimick his actions for bmn's benefit.


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## Sean K

I'll update the IO sheet now and then. I'm hoping other members can contribute by pointing out updates, and identifying other companies. 

Makes FRS look pretty good to me. 

Been slack with the blog. Just not doing a whole lot, waitin for the market to fall over again to put some more longs on.

Did double my ICN and WCL holdings last week.


----------



## Miner

Hi Sean

Are you catching tigers now ? This latest one is very good. Golden colour suggests you are after gold now.

What happens to your weekly posting ?

Take care


----------



## Sean K

Hi Miner,

I was away drunk for most of the weekend and forgot. 

Will catch up this week.

Looks like the correction is finally taking hold. It's about time, was a crazy run. Or, just a good old bear market bounce. Always happens.

Might have to wait till the next overshoot to the downside to wade back in.

Kennas


----------



## shag

bloody wacko jacko's kicked the bucket..
he had a zoo didnt he, with tigers? is that how u got the new one, when he had his firesale...
re stocks, cant work out if to risk more debt or not, and on what.
im presuming u're still sloshed. isnt s america where when u get donein, u wakeup missing bits of yr anatomy.
nz's just come out with more appaling figures, predictable, a shame u couldnt short nz.  i guess thats what currencys r about.


----------



## shag

maybe wacko needed a pig farm in his zoo, to get rid of a few of those complaining kids.
we used to have pigs, long long ago, makes me wonder...
while im on it, the cussy bros in nz used to just put them in the hangi and eat em. i always wondered why the hole they used was so big and they were basically dead lazy. ie why dig such a big hole....oh right, to put the 13yo virgins in and yr mates u dont like....
they didnt have pigs back then.


----------



## Sean K

Love a hangi! The NZ and Fiji boys liked to cook them in East Timor for special occasions. yum yum. Forgotten what the Aboriginies call them, but a similar cooking style. Was lucky to have some ral black fella food somewhere in the NT including roo, goana, snake, and turtle. No tiger though.


----------



## shag

i did a couple
went up and shot a pig for my 20th party. flogged loads of cabbages from some farmers paddock, flogged railway sleepers from hagley park, and flogged some railway iron from rail yards.
used the iron as couldnt get stones easy and u need ones that wont explode on u. cabbages for cover n steam, sleepers for a day and night long fire. being a scarfie u'd be buggered before u paid for anything bar grog as i guess u remember. the park is in the middle of chch, bloody heavy loading all this crap into someones trailer.
a croc would go well and kangaroos.
dad had turtle in the war-pacific, and bat. turtles good i believe.


----------



## shag

saw a pic of yrs from timor, post some more sometime. i had a mog from the army of the same vintage as what they used there. the one rear axis one. geez they were so well engineered. just run in. army mechanics had stuffed up its fuel supply, a dual problem, easily fixed once we picked it up. loved smoking it down our streets and up the canterbury riverbeads. i'd hate to roll it tho.
the stupid country bought 600 of em back in the early 80's, one for every few army personal.
grt for farms with all the pto's.


----------



## Sean K

Been a poor couple of weeks as you'd think. 

Still waiting for the long awaited pullback to get fully invested. 

Probably going to buy some FRS Monday am, looks undervalued and just starting to break from a nice triangle.


----------



## shag

i see bloody srl has gone off yr chart nearly
all the spp's have been soaking up any spare cash
like some more gry on more good grades.
look at the icn vrs mel, i choose the dog.


----------



## Sean K

MEL is a strange one. Clearly undervalued on what corporate action has gone on before. It's time should come.


----------



## Sean K

We all know the economy is f*cked and we're in for bad times. Depression like perhaps.

But, the stock market is not the economy.

It is a forward looking psychological machine operating on perceptions.

It overshoots. Up and down. 

The previous high and low were overshoots. 

The opportunity now is for another overshoot to the downside perhaps, at worse case. 

No need to be afraid, this is an opportunity! 

Be prepared, and take it!


----------



## Sean K

Looks like that real opportunity may present itself soon. Pre-empted it a little while ago when there was a lower low and high and a break of support, but can we hold up again? More chatter about for a significant correction this time by my radar. Why I think this will be an amazing opportunity is that there is SO much cash sitting on the side waiting to enter that any significant correction/continued slide will bring buyers in once the lemmings have sold. The world is aflush with stimulus. It's been hoarded. Once this money starts flowing back in the market will go for one heck of a run. Or, we all die.


----------



## shag

i took yr advice re azm, dropped order and started fishing for some around 10.


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## shag

i dont see economy being stuffed in aus or asia myself.
ive been trying to gain another decent grouping since house purchase and agree.
i see a dramtic run myself, fat profits were calling it last yr the idiots-a 70's style near verticle run but i suspect this time its all go. but then thats me.
my bro is cashed up for another pad, so it could b a chance for him to dump it in for a 6 month run on house dosh. i would anyway. need a lot for an ok place east sydney.
buy massive good dairy farms in nz for the same amount. and they r the only land going up in nz presently or was.
maybe not going up now....


----------



## Sean K

shag, market breaking down from support will destroy everything. Not much will be saved as we have seen.

I'm waiting to see how the market reacts to 3700. If it bounces strongly, then we're ok in the short term. I reckon there's more liklihood of going straight through and testing lows, at which time will be a good buying opportunity. 

I'm much happier to be half invested right now, ready to take advantage of the next capitulation.


----------



## shag

yes im watching 3700 myself and wondered the same. its not a big order anyway, but there r fortunes to be had by buying lower too.
jeez azm has some good grades readimg yr post. 40grms must be yellow vein material.
i might try to go down a mine one day, one mate worked the waihi mine, newmont? owned now. small but good grades. hes in bloody greenland presently on that lead and zinc? project. his wife does europe while hes stuck there. big cold war airstrip close to mine.
thinking of greenland, winters nearly over sydneyway. aus is an awesome plot. a taxi driver recently said why go elsewhere when u're in the best country in the world. hes probably too bright to do driving too long.


----------



## shag

so the market has had a week of trying to go down but didnt. maybe the world bank or was it the imf report killed or delayed it.
earnings season stateside isnt it, hu in the slammer(no talk on asf re this from what i can see), whatever, needs a  decent impetus to drive it lower from where im sitting.
ideas, and it seems i need grammer lessons, which i probably deserved.
hu getting copped reminds me of fonterra/san lu last yr. the exec's in china were sh-t scared and ran for cover quick despite being clean. it was a bit touch and go for them from my memory, but china got all the technolgy for free, and fonterra out for zilch bar a few deaths.
heres a mates trout site if u get bored and want to see good fish and scenery. 
http://www.strikeadventure.com/


----------



## Sean K

Thanks shag, love a good trout fish. Lot's of trout in the Andes surprisingly, but not very big. 

I'm feeling cautiously bullish about this slide down. I was worried about a very rapid descent past old lows but this looks organised. Not too much panic yet. If we retrace 50% or so from the last push up (which is also around support) and hold to find a base, then could be a very good sign and a good entr point. LONG term I think any opportunity around3500 now could be good. 

Just not sure how all this debt is going to be covered.

War probably.


----------



## shag

zane used to rave about all the small fish they caught in north american streams. the massive ones often just sit around under banks anyway, they have caught 20 or 30 pounders in the dim ages in nz. the sea run ones get very large along with a few lake ones.
northwest nelson is so full of fish u really dont need a guide, esp if u are fit and its very scenic. taupo is ok, but over rated and way over fished.

i see the debt/currency debate has started to get some traction. i'm no fiscal genious but i suspect some creative bean counter will come up with a solution and ultimately an aisan and american currency equivalent to the europeans.

its the same in nz, with the massive dept due to the housing boom etc, they r having trouble rolling over the uridashi bonds. it will make visiting nz even cheaper tho from australia.


----------



## shag

bought a few gry to round off things.
did u see the bnz in nz lost a large tax case re tax minimisation/avoidance. all the nz aus owned banks are the same. according to my nz lawyer, in climates like this one, even the courts do not remain impartial so i'm suspecting when this is taken up thru the courts, they will still lose. around half a bill nz for bnz alone.
hows your tourism venture looking, i'd like to do a small accomodation development in a prime coastal region in nz. its in the too hardbasket presently. nice land, restrictive council and cap costs etc. not a big earner potentially but its using the property and putting more of a footprint on it.
the swine flu taking grip in australasia, the bro said clinics inundated(sydney), icu's in nz overflowing.


----------



## Sean K

Tempted by GRY. Can't believe I missed these quality explorers at the bottom. AZM at 4c, GRY at 6c, PRU 20c. In retrospect, could have been a once in a lifetime opportunity. Grrrrrr. 

Tax, eeek. 

Not sure what's happening with the travel company. Have the chance to do it if we want, but big committment a long way from home. Missing Australia quite a bit. 

Your little development sounds interesting. Real estate is an enigma. It was supposed to fall over but has been pretty resiliant. That's the next opportunity in his recession perhaps.


----------



## shag

i had a quick look at why your srl was such a winner. the cash backing seemed rediculously good from the thread. 

we are stuck with the property, been in family for generations. a lovely spot, just large council rates, for little return and service. it would be nice to make it pay, plus use it a bit more. golden bay is a funny place, so isolated, but with large landprices. a summer holiday destination for the south island. lots of well connected people hidden away too.
very restrictive re coastal development, and likely to get worse, thats the problem.


----------



## Sean K

I have rarely seen this event, and even now I am wondering whether I am too emotionally attached to a stock or not.

But, over the past few days I have seen larger than normal orders for a minnor stock on the Ask side which seem unusual.

Unusual in the sense that if I wanted to sell $20k of an illiquid stock I would not put the order on market like these guys have been doing. I would just be picking off the Bids here and there to keep the price bouyant.

This is for very junior minows remember, not relevant for a BHP.

Anyway, does 'capping' exist?


----------



## prawn_86

I think it does, but not nearly as prevalent as some people make out. That seems to be a rampers excuse when i stock does not move up "oh its been capped" however i think it is fairly rare


----------



## Sean K

Yeah, that's what I've thought. Amazing how many cappers there are on stocks discussed at Hot Cocker. 

I'm still seeing it on one of my stocks at the moment. I think I'm objective, but......


----------



## Sean K

AZM rarely has anyone buy over 50K shares at a time, except me I think.

But the past few days they've had quite a few and the usual person splashing up a sell of 200K plus. For someone who watches the stock all days, it's just really weird. 

And, WTF now with the 150 share orders at a few cents.

Maybe it's just a bot at work. 

But, I can't work out if it's a good or bad thing.

Is it good that a broker has bots at work on this stock?

eeeeek


----------



## shag

i have been wondering too why it hasnt got some fire behind it from the recent rise in the pog in the last few days. oh add the positive market sentiment also, as its just a junior explorer.
kondys crystals, forgot about that since school.


----------



## shag

trying to work out what i may do with my dogs in future. trying to find paladins and rio's grades in africa. rio appears to be 350ppm(.0035pc), and going down as yrs progress. 
like ext, but its all inferred(read guessed), whereas bmn is all indicated virtually. ext may upgrade the total resorce from these drilled areas alone as its converted like bmn, but who knows. 1.4 bill ish, when rio is only 40bill? market cap...
i like pdn, its got 6 all over it but is stuggling at 5..
maybe time for cu and ni. iron ore? but logistics, fmg got half a mine just for rail acess.
csm, but i'm guessing too much leaked info and insider knowledge.
maybe just hit the bhp or rio options key. at 33pc and less(declining ore cuts, and growing production) for iron ore contract reductions, bhp must try for 42 again sometime(i personally only like rio as a bhp takeover target again-look at its iron ore deal with bhp, all one way traffic).
give us a blog sometime on yr crystal ball's visions.
cash on the sidelines and greed returning to aus.....

oh while i'm on it, i missed aus when i went back to nz both times this yr(once for 24hrs, another for five or so days). some parts of trip were good, mate/s, the canterbury plains, the farm etc, but as soon as u exit the airport upon return, the heat hits u...
peru, the galapagos islands etc is a whole different story to the shakey isles esp in its present state.


----------



## Sean K

Been a while since last posting.

Have bought and sold a couple of things and been doing some very short term CFD trading which has been going average. 

I'm finding that in my current situation just 'investing' is the only way to enjoy the lifestyle in Peru.

I think I will stop putting these up from now, and start concentrating on some longer term buy and hope positions, and start relaxing at night....


----------



## Gurgler

HI Sean

Is this a serious change in your approach? 
I'll miss your 'disclosures' - irregular though they are!

Greg


----------



## Sean K

I think it might be.

Far less buying and selling for a while I think. 

Maybe I'm just going through a zone.

I've been going to Spanish school, to the gym, learning guitar, doing salsa lessons, working on my book, and helping my wife at her work with special projects during the day. Then, slap the market on top at night and I'm just 'working' 18 hours a day, lol.  

The recent irregular updates is pretty much because I haven't been doing much buying or selling of medium/longer term position stocks. Just bought some AMP, TOL, SUN, WBC. Took 1/3 of my SRL position off the table today, so makes it free carried. 

Very disappointed in some of my decisions a while ago in regard to CBA and WBC. Bought them at the ABSOLUTE bottom as short term trades and then let them go. Not sure what was going through my mind to have not managed that better. Also had LEI and WOR in my sights as well, and let them slip. I'm more disappointed in missing those than not selling MAK, DMM, BMN, NCM, LGL at their breakdowns. Harry Hindsight is bashing me over the head with a cricket bat.

In the very long run, probably won't matter. Add this to experience database for later on.


----------



## Sean K

Maybe this is the last update. 

Made an error with the average formula on the last graph, so updated here, also with prices on Friday. 

Would like to put up the true % gain according to $$ but I don't want to say how much I have invested. The actual % gain to account for differences in asset allocation isn't that much. 5% less.

Some time ago I mentioned a Model Portfolio, which I wanted to have set at the 'bottom' of this recession/depression. I started to build that, but have been a bit slow. I bought CBA and IPL which were in the portfolio, but sold to remain safe. Both poor decisions.

I also had LEI on the list, and what a mistake that has been, so far. 

Still, 'investing' is a long term proposition and I look forward to being able to grab them at some point soon. 

Looks like March is the near term bottom, but mid-long term I think the measures taken by governments to get us out of this will come back to bight us harder. How long will that take? One year? Five Years? Whatever the case, that much debt has to hurt later unless we all find some cunning way to get out of it. 

Longer term, I am questioning the total consumer driven philosophy of sustainable economic growth with Government intervention. Booms and busts are essential, we can not just boom. Governments intervening in this to catch votes totally fvcks it up.

Let's let the system work!!

So, my future plans with investing is to get myself away from the computer as much s possible during the evening to be able to have a normal life over here. That means longer term investments, and less specs that need monitoring, and certainly no CFD short term trading. That is, until circumstances change. 

Right now, looks like I will be leaving Peru in May 2010 to travel up through Central America to do some research and contracting for a new travel company I am going to set up with my wife based in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, with the aim of starting tours in Jan 2011. So, during that period, (a few months maybe) I'll be on the road. Far less ASF time! lol


----------



## shag

jeeze mate, dont desert us. hell there wont be much left worth reading here if u stop making comments. i really enjoyed yr blogs as infrequent as they may have been.
id say more but comuter buggered still-i dropped it-*twice*.
i must say ive learnt and prospered well from yr comments-learnt of lots of good miners that i never knew of.
as julie lee? said/noted recently, i am picking another 7 odd yrs of aus bull materal or do u just say the risk is to the upside. 
i picked up a handful of cu and fe on friday-couldnt help myself.
cheers shag.
ps a good article on 'peak' coal this week too-notably aus is the only big net exporter left.


----------



## MRC & Co

GL Kennas, you live a truly lucky life!  Enjoy it.  You still have a while yet on ASF before you have to do something as terrible as travel through Central America for months!


----------



## Sean K

AMP
AZM
BHP
BRM
GIR
GRY
ICN
IPL
LGL
MEL
PDN
PRU
SRL
SUN
TOL
WBC
WCL

Sold a third of SRL last week at about $2.30 and am almost free carried there on a great profit. Looks like it's about to fall over to me, but with market strength oversees maybe not Monday. As described in the thread, I'm a bit over them now. Making some stupid strategic decisions imo.

Sold half BHP at about $38 as I was way overweight in it. 

Added AMP, TOL, GRY and IPL since last update I think.

MEL and WCL both down about 20% and I'm thinking about throwing in the towel there. ICN is making up for both of them however. 

LGL also performing very poorly, even as the market runs and POG stays well supported. Rightfully smashed for the Ballarat debarcle, and heads should roll. 

Disappointed I missed the CDU recovery after spending quite a bit of time researching it. Watching too many things I think, and also waiting for the market correction which has clouded judgement. 

Also missed the RXM run which I am extremely disappointed in. Was watching it really closely for some time, and took my eye off the ball. 

GRY looks like it's shaping up as long term prospective gold miner. Their drilling success could send their end of year JORC to well over 1m oz au, and the exploration success is outstanding. They could be sitting on a 3-5m oz au deposit. 

Hm, that's enough...

At the end of next week I'm heading to Cuzco for a week and then mid Sep going to Chile for 2 weeks on a bit of a holiday. Will be nice to get out of dreary winter Lima for a while.


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## Sean K

If we have seen an absolute bottom, what a fvckin AMAZING opportunity to buy in. We might look back at this period of time and see it as the best investment opportunity in our lifetimes. 

Chindia is going to take over from the US as the worlds biggest economy in the next 10-15 years, and our mining, energy, materials and infrastructure companies will be earning gazilions! 

If you can make it through the GFC, and the probably next major correction, you will end up a very very rich person by investing in the above industries in the coming years. 

You just need a longer term outlook.


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## Sean K

It's time like these when I question why I didn't buy more of a BRM on the way up when I knew the funnymentals so well. ********.


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## haunting

what's wrong with buying today?

... if you are going for the long term


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## Sean K

Technically and fundamentally - yes. 

It's cheap, and breaking out. 

Just disappointed that I didn't buy more when it was trading below cash backing.

Unbelieveabvle opportunity. 

Didn't trust my judgement after making some bad decisions last year.

Have done OK out of it anyway. A very fast car worth at least.

Just wish it was DB9ish instead of Boxterlikeish.


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## shag

thanks for yr posts mate, really appreciate yr graphs esp.
i have only mel as my csm/g punt. seems a real dog-location being nsw bad...?
trying to up gry for month/s but no good pullbacks as well as cu stocks.
got some cgg, just dont have the decent wads of dosh presently to make good dosh.
need more oil too.
the rail acess is a real can of worms, bugger forest too.
cheers
ps have *another *good holiday....u may risk the rally in aus....


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## Sean K

Hey shag,

Yes, MEL has WAY underperformed. 

I am in 2 minds. 

As a trader, cut and run and put the money to better use. 

Or, as a longer term investor, trust the funnymentals and take advantage of the depressed price. 

I'm thinking the later at the moment. I am waiting for a potential bottom and then going to add to the position. I can only really comfortably do this because I've had such success since the 'bottom'. I'm willing to risk total failure in this company since overall, I've made much more. 

This may be an example of a company that goes belly up, but the odds aren't skewed that way at the moment are they?

So, I am torn. 

The fundamental investor is persuading me to hold and wait for another opportunity to buy.


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## haunting

Kennas,

I have this simplistic approach - at a market top you use TA, at a market bottom, you use FA.

The time to use FA was back in Nov'08-March'09. At the moment I see the market has a potential to develop into an intermediate top and am expecting a correction based on macro observations, market valuation and TA. My timing is out but I still believe the outcome will eventuate. Today's strong market movement is lacking in terms of fundamentals and has more to do with US market/economic influence and divy play, both drivers may not exist in September.

Stick to your plan.

Cheers.


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## swm79

couldnt agree more with you on that last post kennas. 

long term outlook is amazingly good. just as long as china can keep it together. 

looking at all the info at the moment though - baltic dry, chinese domestic hot rolled coil prices, world HRC prices peaking, china's spot iron ore price... the fact that US commentators were saying the market going up last nigth was a result of Bernake being reappointed again (an absolute certainty anyway)... the markets are just hanging for ANY positive news... which indicates to me we may see another slide.... with that said we'll probably look back at these prices and say "why didnt i go in harder?! take out a loan etc etc"


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## Sean K

AQA been a tragic miss. Called a bottom at $2.00. lol

Bought a few more GRY on break through 35c. Expecting more drilling results soon, and would expect them to be good. Stock moving in anticipation of a decent JORC upgrade by end of year.


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## Sean K

Added some more GRY last week.
SRL took a dip related to dividend 30c a share. Thank you very much! 
There were some other ex dividend too, like TOL I think.
Overall things are up since the last update.
ICN has been a champ.
Thinking about adding some more PRU, but I'm a bit overweight in it now. But, for a reason I suppose. Still very undervalued and plenty of news coming up. Plus gold running.
Might add another gold stock, perhaps NCM, or just add to LGL. 
Considering adding to WCL. Some good news on some acerage last week and I am underweight in it compared to ICN and MEL.
Thinking about ditching some AZM. Not as confident as I have been with their prospects.

This market has been very resiliant....

Current positions compared to last one on 7 Aug.


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## Sean K

I think out of the stocks I hold now, PRU has the most potential upside in the comming months. Highly dependent on POG of course. But, even if it stays steady, they have some big news coming out in this quarter which looks certain to be good. Lots of drilling results in areas where gold is being picked up off the turf! Or, I'm wrong... he he


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## Sean K

A couple of things breaking out which is lovely to watch.

BRM, ICN, GRY, PRU (whoohoo!!! )


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## Sean K

Sold a third AZM. Will wait and see how the sp goes and what their next results are before moving again.


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## Sean K

Bought just a few more PDN @ $4.69 as a long term play after the capital raising. I think they are set to be a very long term monster uranium company.

Unless there's a major nuclear disaster coming up... eeek


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## Sean K

Some really unusual action on AZM volume wise. Very suspiscious. Thinking of buying back in with even more. lol


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## Sean K

AZM up to 16c on volume, gotta be something up, they don't start a new drilling campaign till the end of the month.

PRU outsanding intersections out yesterday, the new resource estimate for Trengala could be a significant boost. Could be anything. Have to add some more tomorrow. Way overweight in it now, but it's just a great looking stock with plenty of exploration potential yet and LGL knocking on the door I reckon.

Another resource building for GIR, hit $1.00 yesterday on the ann, what a run from the bottom. Whoohoo!

MEL, WCL, woof woof


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## Sean K

Update.

MEL and WCL; grrrrrrrroooofff!! 

I said I wasn't going to post too many more updates prviously, but I've found some time on my hands.

Won't be the case from Thursday however, as I'm going on a 2 week holiday in Chile. Will have some time from 25 Sep to be on line, but otherwise, zzzzzzz.


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## Sean K

I did well taking some profits on AZM at 13c or whatever.

Now up to 17, on more volume.

lolol


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## Sean K

Since last report things have gone better than I could have expected. Just about everything has ran away to what I think are overbought levels and I should take more profits, but I'm gready. 

Sold half SRL when it started unravelling as mentioned in the thread and am free carried with what I have left, so just going to see where they go from here and what they do with all that cash. Probably should have completely sold out to find the next undervalued thing.

Sold a third BRM at about a 160% gain but seriously thinking about dipping back in as it's just broken some significant resistance.

Probably should have doubled my GRY holdings which was part of the plan but it's never dropped back enough for me to invest with confidence, it's just trading well ahead of itself I think. But, once it does eventually pullback will be doubling. 

I've only got half IPL that I want to balance my longer term big caps and waiting for an opportunity there.

Waiting for the mythical Wave 5 (LMAO) to pick up some longer term majors like WOW, CBA, and WPL. 

Gotta be a decent correction soon!!!


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## Gurgler

Don't know about imminent corrections.

With the overly positive outlook as indicated by the DOW breaking through 10K, it may be a little way off. Kochie was getting very excited this morning. However indications are that there is a very positive outlook in Oz - but for how long???

I'm concerned also as bubbles have a tendency to burst!


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## prawn_86

F@*%$*g Giralia


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## Sean K

Cripes, Giralia is shaping up to be a significant iron player. Can't believe I took profits and didn't double up some time ago. Free carried on 30k will do me I suppose. Although, if McPhee Ck is looking like a 50-100Mt DSO deposit, their might be room to move.


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## Sean K

As I said a couple of weeks ago, I'm out!

The first time in a long time that I have no shares. Nada! It's a strange feeling.

I was only holding a few stocks; the ones I thought had very long term potential and those that I thought were extremely undervalued on a short term basis.

However, after assessing all the facts available, including my nomadic lifestyle, I have decided that in the short term it's best to be completely out of the market and to have a breather.

Worst case, in my view, is a total meltdown in the next 1-5 years which may destroy the capitalyst system. 

I was more optomistic a couple of years ago thinking that the central governments would fix the bubbles by implimenting controls and mechanisms (after saving the crash) that would lead to a better future.

However, they have failed! They have not allowed those to fail that should fail and have provided cash to those that should not have cash! 

What they have done is not just a bandaide solution, but a 'destroy capitalism' solution. I am in dismay. (or in dissaray)

The only out is if there is a dramatic turn around in policy, or if there is a REAL world war three and all debts are cancelled!!!

Time to take your money and run people!!

See you next time situations change. 

Sean


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## Miner

Dear Sean
Saw your posting today so I am assuming you have returned to stock marketing again.

Welcome back to ASF after a short break.

I take the opportunity to wish you and your family an enjoyable Christmas and all the best for a Happier New Year.

Hope you are utilising your time to complete your book as well during the break.


Cheers


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## Sean K

Hi miner,
I'm watcing with interest still, but turn the machine on and off as I fell fit. 
Waiting for a longer term opportunity to get back in, with confidence.
1 yr - 5yr?
My short term plans are a little complicated to allow me to be actively manageing short term positions, so best to stay out and relax.
In fact, I am bearish enough of the medium term financial markets that I have decided to return to the Army.
I start back in Sydney in March 2011, shuffling paper about.
I have a 3-5 year plan to get out of the market and re-eneter once the global system is sorted out. If it is sorted out.
Will be hanging about here, and make some small term trades if the opportunity exists, but my next major investment is a yacht on Sydney Harbour. Just a little cruiser, but something to be able to head up the coast in now and then.
Cheers,
Sean


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## Miner

Well laid plan.
Probably your entry to Sydney will coincide with an election with Tony Abott as PM (just kidding).

Your sign of bearish however largely differing from banking and other investment agencies forecast. But that is why Lehman and Northern Rock collapsed. Banks make mistakes.

Take care


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## Sean K

Hello blog readers, not too many out there, but I know you.

I wish you all the best for the Santa and New Year period, and hope you have a great time wth your family and friends.

For me, I fly to Guatemala tomorrow for a couple of weeks on a little adventure and hope to get back to Peru in early Jan safe and sound.

It was always great to get comments back from you over the year because this is not a 'regular' blog and not all of ASF know this section exists.

So,

Seasons greetings to Prawn, Miner, Gurgler, outback, MRC & Co, grace, nomore4s, swm79, and of course - shag! 

Sorry if I have left anyone out! Please remind me that you have been watching!!

Catch you in the new year!!


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## grace

Hi Kennas, thanks for your Christmas wishes!

Interesting that you are out of the market.  I'm thinking the temptation will be too much, and you will be again reminding us of all things good and bad in the market....well I hope so anyway.  Even Marc Faber is of the opinion that you have to do something with your money while you wait for the blow up to happen.  It may take some time after all to sort the weaklings out.

Happy investing to all in 2010.  Hope we can all pick a winner!

cheers grace


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## Garpal Gumnut

How does an ex choco CSSB Maj get to swan around south America and the Caribbean?

Also did I spell Caribbean proper? 

Also

 ¿Ha agarrado usted alguna enfermedad v***rea mas o estÃ¡ su mujer con usted? 

gg


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## Sean K

GG, Heading back to the Green Machine next year. Driving a desk at the old Land Command now called Forces Command. OMFG!!


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## Garpal Gumnut

It will be the same old same old. Different name same tricks. Enjoy the time away mate and all the best for 2010.  gg


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## Sean K

The blogs have been few and far beween recently. 

I sold up a while ago and have been on complete holidays for the past 6 months or so. Sun, gym, walks, books, rest.

And popping in to ASF.

I'm now back in the Army and have spent my first 2 days at work in Sydney getting used to all the new acronyms and changes in business. There are some.

Great news for me is that after being out of the ARA for 5 years, I know almost everyone still!! Been catching up with old friends for the past 2 days and it's been fantastic.

Currently living in the Officers Mess in Vic Barracks, Paddington. Can think of worse places to be!! Really nice base. 

Unfortunately, I can not access ASF during the day due to the firewall/security stuff, but early mornings and nights will be my time to keep in touch.

Chau!

kennas


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## Miner

Hi Sean

All the best in your return to army.
It was so nice to learn that even after 5 years you could see old mates. In last 5 years world environment and miltary has seen a lot of changes. 
So please take care and all best
I am happy to learn that you would still a peeping Tom in ASF.

PS : None of my business but your latest avtar is not so vociferous compared to previous one. It is more greeney than jungle tiger. Any way I am keeping my shut

Regards


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## Sean K

Thanks Miner! 

Yes, good to be back with friends. They are just a rank higher now. 

The avatar is a Land Iguana from the Galapagos. A pic I took a couple of years ago. Maybe I'll revert back to the feline soon..


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## shag

hi mate
grt to see u back on the CONTINENT
i bet u miss the clear warm seas tho, diving, like surfing is like a drug imo, a fix u have to have
and dont spear anything that looks bigger than a couple of foot max, it could b a shark in murkier waters.....
guess u miss the food too.
must b grt to get some lead in the air tho and see all the new toys the army has.
yr advice on pru etc made me sell down my dog, bmn, thus saving me from a large drop thanks.
u need an avatar of one of those real mean, eat anything that moves, land dragons over indonesia way.
cheers


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## Sean K

Hi shag, you've been away for a while?
God knows where BMN will go. Once EXT started building their deposit it made them look like turkeys really.
PRU still looks very good. Just check the political situation in Ivory Coast. Not sure what effect it will have.
Had a nice day in Sydney today. Walked around Centenial Park, gone to thegym, sat on the beach at Bondi and now drinking vinos in Paddington. Life's not bad.
Except my wife is in Salvador Brazil for Easter ....


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## Miner

Kennas

Read your posting on AZM
I know you have been a great believer on AZM but the stock moved very slow.

Hope army is treating you well

Any comments on HEG or/ and DOM ?

They appear to be good stocks (I hold) but price is only going south.

Regards


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## Sean K

Hi miner, will have a look at them. 

I think I did look closely at HEG at one point, but for some reason didn't put it on my 'close watch' list. Something was amiss. 

Yes, I was a big fan of AZM and it's undervalued position and potential for some time, but it looks expensive now imo. I ended up doing very well out of them, and am happy to have banked the money, but I'd be looking for the next thing now if I was actively investing. 

Will comment on HEG/DOM soon.

Cheers,
SK


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## Miner

Hi Sean

Greetings for a great Christmas and HNY
Hope you are well and good to see that you have returned as a moderator.
Have not seen your blog entry for couple of months.
Just wanted to say hello and missing your blog entries

Regards


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## Sean K

Sorry mate, been very preoccupied with other things away from the net. Really missing full time trading and friends on ASF though. Will be back full time one day soonish I think.


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## Miner

kennas;bt3019 said:
			
		

> Sorry mate, been very preoccupied with other things away from the net. Really missing full time trading and friends on ASF though. Will be back full time one day soonish I think.




Not a problemo mate
All I wanted to bring your attention your postings were missed
Please take your time and priority should be right
I could see your posting in ASF thread any way

regards


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## Sean K

There is no doubt now that PRU will be snatched up in the near future. One of the largest gold holdings in West Africa and everyone wanting a piece of it. 

Could be anyone who takes them but there is a few who already have significant operations in the area and this would be a great bolt on for another 500K oz pa in the near future. 

NCM must be looking at them for one.


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## Miner

Hi Sean

Long time after seeing your posting.
Yes, I do agree as PRU from the day one never wanted to be a producer by themselves. Unfortunately I missed out to encash the price rise
What do you think of GDO ? Comparing its peer group 53 cents bloody attractive even if CITIC etc offering 55 cents. In long run it will make the money when I see its peer group performances and taken over of RAND Uranium. 
Why the share price is not reflecting the surge of profit and resource level.
Just sharing to learn

Regards

Miner
PS : I have reutnred to mining directly now after spending few years in EPCM and now in North America dodging some chances of going to DRC or West Africa


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## Sean K

Yeah, I've been very very busy lately and haven't had much time to spare. PRU very recently pushed though some long term resistance and powering on. 

Was watching GDO and their ounces to price looked compelling. Couldn't work out why they were so lowly rated. Maybe it was the grade. 

Back digging eh? If gold keeps going up I'll be out in the gardens of Bendigo with a metal detector...


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## shag

capital raising hasnt helped SP
like how long do u need to wait for a takeover, look at wpl, pdn, ext.....the latter went sideways for yrs, then popped up and sideways again for yrs....
not like some of the fe and coal stocks.
at least china has a multi billion budget out now for these african stocks, supposedly.
geez with pru im just getting old....


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## shag

doesnt the graph look bad
i know it floats thru 3 buks but it looks like lower his n lower lows etc...

shame no real news, 4 us anyway. 4 all we know nationalisation is on the cards or higher taxes.


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## Sean K

Massive upgrade to M&I before Xmas. Soon will obviously have 10m oz in not much deeper than 100m. Low grade but with the type of deposits and depth you can get the gold out by panning. 

Once a TO is launched I think it'll be fought over.


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## shag

geez m getting old....
buy stock n it promptly goes down...
did i say i'm getting old, memory must b going....
feel free to comment on gmr, it never hit my radar, must b the age...
dml finally hit news radar n explains why it held solid during gfc 2a.
cheers


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## Sean K

Production figures out today in line with guidance. 

In the past goldies have been taken over at a 30% premium, the latest have been much higher.


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