# ARU - Arafura Rare Earths



## Cash cow (25 August 2005)

Does any one have any comments regarding the land just acquired by ARU for uranium exploration? Given past performance todays announcement may send the share price in a northerly direction rather quickly.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (25 August 2005)

*Re: ARU uranium miner*

It's the climate for speculation on uranium. 
Give me production and rising prices for the long term.


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## laurie (6 January 2006)

*Re: ARU uranium miner*

On trading halt 6:33pm friday the 6th

cheers laurie


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## Rasman (29 March 2006)

*Check my calcs - ARU SSPP value dilution*

All,

ARU is issuing up to 30% new shares at 32c to existing share holders
Current share price: around 50c

Here are my dilution calculations

If the maximum of 30% new shares are issued....

(For clarification "Current share price" = share price on the date of issue)

If the current share price is 36c - Share price will be diluted by 2.56% or .92c/share - Corrected share price 35.07

If the current share price is 42c - Share price will be diluted by 5.49% or 2.3c/share - Corrected share price 39.69c

If the current share price is 50c - Share price will be diluted by 8.31% or 4.15c/share - Corrected share price 45.84

So in theory if the share price dips below the corrected share price post date of issue due to people taking profits on the share offer, its a relatively cheap buy? (as long as there is no other news released)

Can someone check out my sums and let me know your opinions?

Cheers

Disclaimer: Dont believe anything I say, I hold ARU shares, I am not a professional trader, dont take anything here for granted, I make no recommendations.


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## bullmarket (29 March 2006)

*Re: Check my calcs - ARU SSPP value dilution*

Hi Rasman

Your numbers look spot to me, but I only checked  the case where the share price is 50c (bottom of your post) so I assume the rest are ok. 

For anyone wondering how to calculate the diluted share price in Rasman's scenario, it's basically the same method as calculating a theoretical ex-rights price.

In this case they are issuing 3 new shares for every 10 at 32c per new share.

So if the the current share price = 50c then the theoretical new price (ex-rights/dilution or whatever) can be calculated as follows:

Theoretical diluted price = ((10 x 50c) + (3 x 32c)) / (3 + 10) = 45.84c

If anyone would like to discuss further I will be back on Saturday. 

cheers

bullmarket 



			
				Rasman said:
			
		

> All,
> 
> ARU is issuing up to 30% new shares at 32c to existing share holders
> Current share price: around 50c
> ...


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## Sean K (12 July 2006)

*Re: ARU - Aratura Resources*

Do you own ARU, YT?

I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.   

Joe, can you change the heading of this thread to it's correct name:

Arafura Resources

Thanks


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## YOUNG_TRADER (12 July 2006)

*Re: ARU - Aratura Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Do you own ARU, YT?
> 
> I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.
> 
> ...




Do I own it?

You betcha!!!!  I have been waiting for this ever since they ann it 3 months or so ago


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## YOUNG_TRADER (12 July 2006)

Thats very very interesting, they plan on listing this new Uranium company after they drill,


This will be a huge listing I reckon, even trumping that of EME and TOE now that people know how strong they can go,

This new float has 3 huge outstanding factors,

1. 100% of its large tennements are in N.T. and already have confirmed Uranium Resources on them

2. Has a farm in over 1 of its 3 main projects from Candian major Lara

3. Will probably do substantial drilling before or as they list!!!!!!!!


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## laurie (12 July 2006)

I'm still not clear how they are going to do the IPO has the cut off date for participation has already been set! if not then that will explain the sp rise  

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (3 August 2006)

ARU finally broken through .45c heading to around .48c and then .55. Not real convincing yet though. 

Holding for the U potential. And to hopefully earn back some of my DVC fiasco.


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## noirua (4 August 2006)

Arafura's Uranium split: http://www.brr.com.au/event/ARU/774/12756


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## NettAssets (21 August 2006)

You really do like bottom feeding FB.

I'd like it to turn around a bit


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 August 2006)

Sad but true. Only in the present climate.

Have had a few bullish wins in the property trusts section of the XAO of late though. KZL & ZFX did alright for me today also, as I bottom picked them to.


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## laurie (21 August 2006)

Their Uranium spin off is really getting me angry   either they are ready or not how long do we have to wait! arh well just like their spp   

cheers laurie


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## chris1983 (17 September 2006)

*Re: ARU - Aratura Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Do you own ARU, YT?
> 
> I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.
> 
> ...




Hey Kennes,

You still holding these?  YT what ab you?  Ive been reading and reading about these.  There is still plenty of time yet to jump on and get on the float.  I really like what I have read and its probably a good entry level atm.


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## Sean K (17 September 2006)

*Re: ARU - Aratura Resources*



			
				chris1983 said:
			
		

> Hey Kennes,
> 
> You still holding these?  YT what ab you?  Ive been reading and reading about these.  There is still plenty of time yet to jump on and get on the float.  I really like what I have read and its probably a good entry level atm.




Yep, still there Chris. Holding most Aussie uranium plays medium term until there is more direction from Labor. I'm tipping a change to no new mines which puts all uranium explorers with something feasable on the long term buy/hold. Kennas


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## YOUNG_TRADER (18 September 2006)

K mans back   !


Yeah Chris I'm still holding, but only about small amounts to get entitlement to min application being $2000,

While I'm annoyed at the delay in IPO (= lost time on money holding ARU) if they list IPO after they drill tennements with Canadian Lara and strike something, whooooo weeeee what an IPO list that will be!


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## Vainglorious (18 September 2006)

Just playing Devil's Advocate:

Wouldn't the potential profit of the uranium spinoff be priced into the shares of ARU?  In other words, wouldn't shareholders win on one and loose on the other?


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## mmmmining (7 October 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> K mans back   !
> 
> 
> Yeah Chris I'm still holding, but only about small amounts to get entitlement to min application being $2000,
> ...




It looks like you have to hold a little longer. I have the honor to talke with the company a few days ago. To be fair, they are honest people. The try to unlock the Uranium value without capital gain tax, and giving no  benefit to newcomers. This is why the ARU share price is still suffering. I believe keep it to yourself is a way to shot your foot by yourself. Without new buyers, who is interested in your wanderful stock?

By the way, I believe the company's success is depending on how they can unlock the REE/P/U asset. It is one of the kind in the whole world. Wanderful asset.

Overall, I still see the value of this company. Gold and Iron assets are  a good sidekick, particularly, the iron royality.


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## Sean K (27 October 2006)

ARU hasn't had the run like the other U plays over the past week or so which has been disappointing.

Their ann yesterday was OK. Only $4.5m in the bank means raising on the horizon to me. Especially with the demerger happening in early November. How is $4.5m going to run 2 companies?? They should have gone the IPO I reckon, then they'd be flush. 

Found a solid base at $0.35 and is that a rounded bottom starting to form? 

A bit of head wind between $0.40 and $0.45.....


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## sleeper88 (27 October 2006)

has the company set a record date for the entitlement to NuPower shares?..can we still participate in the rights issue if we purchase shares now?


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## mmmmining (28 October 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> has the company set a record date for the entitlement to NuPower shares?..can we still participate in the rights issue if we purchase shares now?





Not yet set a record date. I believe you still can participate for entitlement. I am more interest in the Nolans Bore rare earth project.


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## Sean K (28 October 2006)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Not yet set a record date. I believe you still can participate for entitlement. I am more interest in the Nolans Bore rare earth project.




Nolans is their flagship company maker really.


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## Sean K (1 November 2006)

Up 14% breaking through $0.40, easily. 

Doesn't show up on this chart yet. Just imagine a big white candle going up to $0.44 right now.


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## Sean K (1 November 2006)

1117 [Dow Jones] Arafura Resources (ARU.AU) surges 17% to 45 cents on lively trading of 1.0 million shares. Rally follows news of start of drilling at Lucy Creek uranium prospect, 250 km northeast of Alice Springs. ARU plans to drill 60 holes to an average 40 meters this month in hunt for this metal du jour. Exploration comes as uranium spot price extends 5-year rally, with Ux Consulting reporting spot hit US$60/pound on Oct. 30 - a level that has investors' eyes lighting up. (RCB)


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## ezyTrader (1 November 2006)

Hi kennas,
would you mind posting EOD chart update and commentary please?
 

The way I see it, there's more upside to this after today.  : Any thoughts?


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## mmmmining (2 November 2006)

ezyTrader said:
			
		

> Hi kennas,
> would you mind posting EOD chart update and commentary please?
> 
> 
> The way I see it, there's more upside to this after today.  : Any thoughts?




I believe the market is looking around to find undervalued uranium stock. ARU is surely emerged on the radio screen. I cannot figure it out which mineral is by-products any more for Nolans Bore. It is really a very good news. Plus the three uranium prospects are looking very good.


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## Sean K (2 November 2006)

Was a pretty big day for ARU yesterday. Smashed through several levels of short term resistance but now sitting on another resistance level seen in the 3 year weekly. Broken short term down trend and still in long term up trend seen on 3 year chart. Generally trending up, and now above 200d ma which is good. Biggest volume in 9 months, significantly higher than usual. Should find support now at $0.40. Needs to hold up around $0.45 for breakout to be really confirmed. I'd look for consolidation here for a more positive view. General market sentiment significantly assisting all U stocks atm, so look for traders to jump on this again perhaps, but will jump off just as quickly......don parachutes if short term trading, long term winner imo. U prospects all ok, but Nolans rare earths looks the goods.


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## Sean K (2 November 2006)

Now broken that next level of resistance at $0.47, on to $0.55 IMO. $0.45 should be good support now.


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## Sean K (3 November 2006)

Damn ASX!!!    Issues a speeding ticket, clamps the tyres, and back to $0.45 she goes.


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## Sean K (6 November 2006)

The seeding ticket hasn't stopped this one either. After a pause, off she goes. Is there any Zinc or uranium stock not smashing through resistance and all time highs? Geesh. 

At $0.49 now.


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## Sean K (7 November 2006)

Possibly on to all time highs and blue sky for this puppy today.


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## Sean K (8 November 2006)

Cracked $0.56 yesterday and pulled back slightly. Nothing but blue sky holding this one back shortly.

I can not see this U phoria continuing for much longer though. All time highs all over the place. 

Be wary anyone jumping onto these U rocket ships now. Or have a good exit.


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## Sean K (8 November 2006)

I'm out of this. Had a good run. 

Some U stocks are coming off a bit. I've got a feeling they'll correct slightly.


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## Bullion (8 November 2006)

Is there a trading halt on? For some reason on Commsec the buys are higher than the sell orders...

Ann out that they are drilling for gold?


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## moses (8 November 2006)

yes there is a trading halt


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## moses (8 November 2006)

cleared now


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## Bullion (8 November 2006)

Ahhh... I read the wrong ann's... hahaha


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## sleeper88 (8 November 2006)

com govt grant of $3.3m, just like the one they gave ALK for their rare earth project in NSW


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 November 2006)

I'm out too, only reason I bought stock was to get priority to New U float, but thats yonks off,


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## ezyTrader (8 November 2006)

> I'm out too, only reason I bought stock was to get priority to New U float, but thats yonks off,




YT, Do you know when? Or, anyone?
Cheers.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (13 November 2006)

I recieved a whole bunch of letters from ARU's biggest shareholder and founder,

He wants to take control of the company, reckons current Management is ****, I tend to agree, in the same time that LYC has managed to get JV Chinese funding and offtake deals for its huge Rare Earths deposit AU has managed to get a $3m Govt Grant,

In the same time POL has finalised its Spin off of its U company, ARU has advised it'll be another 3-4months,

I sold out, but hope current management get the boot!


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## Sean K (14 November 2006)

This too, also comming off and heading into buy territory again. Should find some support as indicated.


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## Sean K (14 November 2006)

Right issue announced for 2 for 5 shares for $0.36, record date 29 Nov. 

I can't see this being good for the sp short term. That's a massive discount to todays price. Might be wrong.


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## sleeper88 (14 November 2006)

By the sounds of the announcement, the proposed demerger of U assets into NuPower might not even go ahead, looks like the SP will be heading south again.


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## Sean K (14 November 2006)

Piece of luck to get out when I did. 

Hope eveyone else took profits, or bugged out on the way down..

Will be interesting to see where this goes tomorrow.


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## mmmmining (1 December 2006)

ARU right issue is out. 
You can chose either pay by check, or by credit card.
If you pay by credit card, you can fax it to the registry
If you are away from home, you can ask the registry to email you personalized form. The people are very nice.
If you don't take up your right, the greed underwriter will get a free ride from you, and you might not get as many as free NuPower share as you deserved.  
The closing date is Dec 14 2006 by 5:00 pm WST.


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## laurie (1 December 2006)

mmmmining

where are you located!

cheers laurie


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## mmmmining (1 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> mmmmining
> 
> where are you located!
> 
> cheers laurie




Laurie,

Floating.  But I will not give you an easy answer. Here is the hint:

I was riding with Larry Cassidy a few days ago, but not in Sydney, and not on a horse (oops!)

Which part of Sydney are you at?


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## Sean K (2 December 2006)

ARU looking very vulnerable at this point. Found support at $0.45 as expected but it's being sold off every time it tries to rise. If it breaks $0.45 down to $0.35 ish perhaps, although $0.43 should be a little support too. Needs to reclaim $0.53 really for the down trend to stop. 

(not holding)


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## mmmmining (2 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> This too, also comming off and heading into buy territory again. Should find some support as indicated.




I believe the chance to move higher for next couple of weeks is not good because of people selling shares to fund right purchase. Not good for short term trade by chart.

But there is a danger for people who want to sell because ARU might issue good drilling news at Lagoon Creek anytime soon. You might remember what ARU did on the ex-right day.


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## laurie (2 December 2006)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Laurie,
> 
> Floating.  But I will not give you an easy answer. Here is the hint:
> 
> ...




No its the State/City I was after I was just wondering why I did not get mine

cheers laurie


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## mmmmining (2 December 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> No its the State/City I was after I was just wondering why I did not get mine
> 
> cheers laurie




Laurie, 

Don't worry, they send it out on Nov 30. Because I am traveling at the Sin City of Asia before I can receive the form, I asked them to email me, so they did.

Cheers Happy Mining


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## noobs (21 December 2006)

This came straight from Hot copper so I can't verify it but I believe its useful:

*Prospectus for NuPower will be lodged with ASIC either today or tomorrow.
The NuPower prospectus will be posted out around the 10 Jan 2007, with cutoff date for the entitlement around the beginning of February. Shares in the two new companies will begin trading around the end of February or very early March next year.

Spoke with Peter, Alistair and Denis at the Brisbane presentation and all seemed to be focused on increasing shareholder value…..great news for holders*

I noticed that one of the directors topped up on ARU & ARUO today which would add further credibility to the above statement. As always DYOR


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## mmmmining (21 December 2006)

noobs said:
			
		

> This came straight from Hot copper so I can't verify it but I believe its useful:
> 
> *Prospectus for NuPower will be lodged with ASIC either today or tomorrow.
> The NuPower prospectus will be posted out around the 10 Jan 2007, with cutoff date for the entitlement around the beginning of February. Shares in the two new companies will begin trading around the end of February or very early March next year.
> ...




I believe the mentioned it in their ann. meeting, including the timetable. 

For the top up part, I believe the directors are just taking up the rights issued. 

A lot of people did not bother to take it, I don't know why? If you own 10,000 shares, at today's price, the right worth $840. Imaging they directors have millions.


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## laurie (21 December 2006)

Well you are forgetting one thing the NuPower demerger may not be a script for script it could be 1:2 2:3 1:3 etc   

cheers laurie


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## laurie (12 January 2007)

Announcement out 3:1

cheers laurie


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## panem (15 January 2007)

I am in today.


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## Sean K (15 January 2007)

panem said:
			
		

> I am in today.



Why panem? You need to give us some reasoning in your posts, or it's just considered ramping. Cheers, Kennas


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## laurie (15 January 2007)

Well here is a scenario to consider 
1. Sell on CE means good profit[if you time it well]  
2. Downside no NUP entitlement   
3. Upside what will ARU fall to after EX
4. Buy back in at a discount   
5. What will NUP be on day 1!   

I think I will hold suppose I can work out the maths as many will be doing at this very moment I think #5 is the spanner in the works   

cheers laurie


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## mmmmining (15 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Why panem? You need to give us some reasoning in your posts, or it's just considered ramping. Cheers, Kennas




Kennas,

Don't understand how a simple statement "I am in today" commit a ramping. To be fair, when I follow your blog link, and find you giving us a list of your holdings. Does anyone consider you ramping indirectly? I guess no.

Please consider this as friendly exchange. I have no intention to question your good will.


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## Sean K (15 January 2007)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Kennas,
> 
> Don't understand how a simple statement "I am in today" commit a ramping. To be fair, when I follow your blog link, and find you giving us a list of your holdings. Does anyone consider you ramping indirectly? I guess no.
> 
> Please consider this as friendly exchange. I have no intention to question your good will.



Hi mmmmming, 

I know where you're comming from but the blog isn't the same as Joe Blows ASF. My Blog is my blog and I've just started it. You can ask me any question you like about any stock I am holding and I will give you a reason for it. 

Actually, I think you will find all the reasons are here on ASF. If you follow my posts I nominate all the stocks I own and always give justification for why I have bought, or sold them. It's always just my own reasoning of course, I am no expert on anything! 

So, when I get around to it, I'll have to expand my reasosn for buying the stocks I have on the blog. I have already to some degree, just by saying which industries I think are going to fare better in the short term, and why I have the managed funds I have. Perhaps you should criticise me of ramping on my blog instead of here, which I think is a little unfair. From the moment I joined this site I think I have always been objective about my, or anyone elses, stock picks. You can point out where I haven't been, please. 

In regard to being a moderator on this site, I am only trying to keep up the policies of Joe, not my own, and as you have agreed to some extent, the comment made was a ramp.

I'll gladly take my blog link off this site if there's a conflict of interest....

And, I'm cool about you questioning me about this. I'm sure others might have thought the same thing. And, I appreciate you are not trying to question my good will. I have tried my hardest to be objective and reasonable on the site and assist anyone where I could. Hopefully I have value added somewhere along the line. 

I have certainly got heaps off other members of ASF who know who they are. Thank you for your assistance, everywhere. 

kennas


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## mmmmining (15 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'll gladly take my blog link off this site if there's a conflict of interest....
> kennas



Kennas, Please don't take your blog out. It is not my attention. I would like to see more pictures of yours. We may run into each other on Melbourne street, so I can recognize you, and say Hi.

By the way, if you read Laurie's post first, "I'm in today" may appear normal.


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## laurie (15 January 2007)

Well done guys a lesson on how to communicate ending in a handshake   

cheers laurie


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## mmmmining (5 February 2007)

After reading Page 13 or the latest presentation, I decide to call Gavin in ARU to clarify a couple issues:

First, I noticed that the uranium is not in the equation for cost and revenue projection. It is confirmed that extract uranium is not their focus at this moment, or the focus of their scientific research. If they can extract it in the future, its fine. They are not count on it, and not working at it as priority.

Secondly, the focus is rare earth metal. The Phosphoric acid and calcium chloride are just by products, and need marketing effort to sell it. And the process is still not commercially available.

Overall, IMHO, I guess after de-merge, ARU will not be a uranium company any more. As a rare earth company, there is a significant risk associated with the metallurgical process. 

I really like the NUP's property, particularly the Lagoon Creek.  I am not sure whether to hold ARU to get free NUP, or buy NUP from open market. I guss NUP might worth 60c at first day of trading (20c per ARU share). The question comes down to how much it worth for ARU without NUP, and uranium theme? I don't know.


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## falcon55 (20 February 2007)

So....what the hell is going on with ARU today?

Down 21% for the day right now. 

Is there some insider news I dont know about?

I cashed in 70% of my stocks with it hit 95c a while ago. So its not that much of a big deal. 

I just wanna know if I should get out now to cash in on another couple hundred profit.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (20 February 2007)

Mate the stocks gone Ex Entitlement for the 1:3 Free In Specie Distribution of Nu Power shares, still I'm puzzled as if you sell on the Ex-Date you may be deregistred before the record date which is next Monday,

If I were u I'd hold till next monday to guarantee your free in-specie distribution of Nu-Power shares, it will be a cracker of a uranium IPO!


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## LifeisShort (20 February 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Mate the stocks gone Ex Entitlement for the 1:3 Free In Specie Distribution of Nu Power shares, still I'm puzzled as if you sell on the Ex-Date you may be deregistred before the record date which is next Monday,
> 
> If I were u I'd hold till next monday to guarantee your free in-specie distribution of Nu-Power shares, it will be a cracker of a uranium IPO!




Thats what exdate means....if you buy shares today you are ineligible, if you held them yesterday then you are eligible....hence the selling today (yesterday 5pm)


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## SBBH (2 March 2007)

02 Mar 2007 Minebox headline

Lagoon Creek uranium project results promising

Drilling by Arafura Resources and NuPower Resources at the Lagoon Creek uranium project in the Northern Territory has delivered significant uranium results, with the best intercept being 5m @ 0.18% (3.9 lb/T) U3O8 and the highest grade intercept assaying 9.1 lb/tonne.

The drilling program was undertaken by Toronto-based Laramide Resources, as part of an agreement with Arafura where Laramide can earn a 60 percent interest in EL 23573 by spending $5.5m on exploration over five years.

Arafura is currently demerging its uranium interests into NuPower, which is scheduled to commence trading on the ASX in early March.

Arafura and NuPower signed a memorandum of understanding to assign Arafura’s interest in the Lagoon Creek project to NuPower on February 23, with Arafura retaining a 10 percent interest in the new company.

Arafura’s Managing Director, Alistair Stephens said the company’s Board had made a strategic decision to demerge its uranium assets into NuPower Resources, enabling Arafura to focus on its Nolans rare earth specialty metals project.

NuPower Resources’ Managing Director, Dennis O’Neill said the results of Laramide Resource’s drilling program were an excellent indication of the quality of the Lagoon Creek project, which is one of the key prospects in NuPower Resources’ suite of uranium assets.

“To have NuPower start its independent corporate life with such an attractive and well developed project is a big bonus. Mr O’Neill said. “NuPower can now focus on also growing shareholder value through our other Northern Territory uranium projects at Lucy Creek and in the Aileron Basins.”

The 2818 metres of drilling were completed in 23 holes in the Northeast Westmoreland prospect area throughout October and November 2006.

Twenty-nine samples returned results in excess of 100 ppm (0.01%) U3O8, with a further 20 samples returning 50-100 ppm U3O8. The highest uranium result was 0.42% between 127m to 128m in NEWM204.

Laramide plans to conduct further drilling at Northeast Westmoreland during the 2007 field season commencing in about May/June. This will include core drilling to extend the holes that did not reach their target depths in 2006.

- 02 Mar 2007


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## mmmmining (8 March 2007)

Very strange trading action. There are so many trades and orders volume between 1000 and 3000 shares, no of them in round number. 

I appreciate anyone can explain this. To me, it is UFO....


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## moses (13 March 2007)

ARU has been climbing back up steadily for a few days now, up 14% so far today with hints of increased volume. Volume not strong yet, but going in the right direction.


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## mmmmining (13 March 2007)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Very strange trading action. There are so many trades and orders volume between 1000 and 3000 shares, no of them in round number.
> 
> I appreciate anyone can explain this. To me, it is UFO....




Nobody can answer this? 

After the fact, I think it is a buying signal. ARU is up from 57.5c then to 73c. It happened before with another stock (I cannot remember). Anyone disagree?


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## constable (14 March 2007)

Plenty of support for this today regardless of all ords! Vol just cracking a million units.


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## constable (16 March 2007)

That was a fantastic gap up on open! Nobody mentioned it ?


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## Sean K (16 March 2007)

constable said:
			
		

> That was a fantastic gap up on open! Nobody mentioned it ?



 Almost doubled in 17 days! What the?!! Still, just recovering back to where it was I suppose....Hairy ride for the long term holder.


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## laurie (16 March 2007)

NUP will help it along if it does well   

cheers laurie


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## constable (28 March 2007)

Did anybody notice? 
Have been trading this but totally missed today.


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## UraniumLover (28 March 2007)

constable said:


> Did anybody notice?
> Have been trading this but totally missed today.



Now I know what to buy after a correction.


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## laurie (28 March 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> Now I know what to buy after a correction.




Forget correction mate you have to fight the Germans they are crazy about this stock so tomorrow MAY see $1.35  

cheers laurie


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## UraniumLover (28 March 2007)

laurie said:


> Forget correction mate you have to fight the Germans they are crazy about this stock so tomorrow MAY see $1.35
> 
> cheers laurie




I haven't been following this one closely.
What are the fundamentals behind this amazing recovery?


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## laurie (28 March 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> I haven't been following this one closely.
> What are the fundamentals behind this amazing recovery?




Rare Earths...go to their web site they can tell you better than I can.

cheers laurie


----------



## timelord (12 April 2007)

No one is following this?  Seems to have taken off.  Don't hold any shares.  Is it too late?  Ann due?


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## enigmatic (6 June 2007)

I was wondering if anyone was still following this one, and if anyone thinks that ARU will pick up later in 2007-2008?


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## popy (13 June 2007)

I was wondering why the sudden slide in ARU and a perhaps a bold prediction of its price in  say 12 months. Any opinions are appreciated.


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## popy (5 July 2007)

Trading Halt for ARU. Anyone know the reason for this? The sp of recent months has been on a steady incline.


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## breakeven (5 July 2007)

Popy, we should know by monday re the trading halt.  Judging by the recent volume there were no leaks re the announcement.  It could be good or bad I have seen both in this type of thing on the ASX.  The common view as expressed on HotCopper is that it will be good, I would agree with that.  The reason being the company has released good anns recently re vanadium, I would have thought a Trading Halt following a string of bad results would have me thinking that maybe might be negative.  Anyway we will find out soon enough ....


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## enigmatic (18 July 2007)

Seems the recent announcements have helped push the SP back up, should start seeing this rise later this Qtr.


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## enigmatic (24 September 2007)

Well after the small hiccup that the share market had it seems that ARU is finally picking up in SP. Any good announcement will see the SP push back to around the $2.20 mark.

I would like to add it is up 24% today


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## laurie (24 September 2007)

enigmatic said:


> Well after the small hiccup that the share market had it seems that ARU is finally picking up in SP. Any good announcement will see the SP push back to around the $2.20 mark.
> 
> I would like to add it is up 24% today




I don't get enthusiastic anymore the way the market is at present,one day its up 24% the next down 30%, I just leave them in the bottom drawer 

cheers laurie


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## Kalmsg (9 October 2007)

Just leave this one in the draw for a couple of years. Things are progressing and mangement are doing their job and now Arafura has been mentioned in the Dimes report in the USA as well.


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## exgeo (16 October 2007)

Anybody have any idea about the reason for today's dramatic sp. collapse (down 20% today, at time of writing)? Was the REO pricing really that bad?


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## breakeven (19 October 2007)

exgeo. their is a lot of talk on HC about the reasons for the collapse.  Basically the market doesn't like the PF just released.  Too many assumptions, to much finance needed and timeframes too long.  For me it all hinges on the price they get for their basket of REE and judging by the increase in usuage of REE in high tech I think it will come back with a venegence!


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## gtsman_05 (6 March 2008)

anyone re-looking at ARU now Rare Earth prices are through the roof...

there was a large volume day the other day and they got issued a speeding ticket


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## hangseng (5 May 2008)

gtsman_05 said:


> anyone re-looking at ARU now Rare Earth prices are through the roof...
> 
> there was a large volume day the other day and they got issued a speeding ticket




ARU announcement out. Just digesting it however all looks to be good news.

All we need now is for the market to wake up to the obvious, being rare earths and the immense potential of Nolans Bore. ARU is extremely well placed to take advantage of the next good thing.


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## enigmatic (16 May 2008)

have been going through some of the numbers of ARU again and its looking pretty good reading the latest report the current figures stick out.

Revenue from all Nolans Projects Products at current prices is US$575 million pa
-Rare Earth US$300mil
-Phosphoric acid US$200mil
-Calcium Chloride US$40mil
-Uranium oxide US$25mil

with a current Mkt Cap = $189.3 mil.
18.6million tonnes of resources which is expected to have a life span of 20years+

Maybe thats why the price is heading up again, the mine is getting closer and with a revenue of 575mil there has got to be an up size.


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## hangseng (17 May 2008)

enigmatic said:


> have been going through some of the numbers of ARU again and its looking pretty good reading the latest report the current figures stick out.
> 
> Revenue from all Nolans Projects Products at current prices is US$575 million pa
> -Rare Earth US$300mil
> ...




I originally entered ARU purely for the rare earths as a long term hold. As if the REE wasn't good enough (and it is), the phosphoric acid is a major bonus. Also good potential for Ni, if they achieve this as well ARU will be a very profitable hold for my super.

I always thought the sell down following last years announcement of the Nolans Bore DFS was a major overeaction. However I followed it and an excellent entry point eventually presented itself, pays to be patient 

http://fw.farmonline.com.au/news/na...-hope-for-fertiliser-price-relief/771771.aspx

In part:

NT mine offers hope for fertiliser price relief
BY COLIN BETTLES
16/05/2008 1:57:00 PM
An Australian mining company will produce an essential ingredient in fertiliser production that could soon help ease the pressure on local fertiliser supply and pricing.
Perth-based Arafura Resources is advanced with its plans to establish a new mine 135km north of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory.

The project will dig rare earths and phosphate from the ground and produce phosphoric acid from a downstream processing plant.

The acid is a co-product of Arafura's processing plant and an important product in the fertilisers' manufacture.

In Australia, phosphoric acid use is confined to phosphate fertiliser production for use in broadacre cropping.

Arafura plans to supply the product to local fertiliser manufacturers to assist with production on farms mainly in WA, South Australia, Victoria and NSW.


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## laurie (17 May 2008)

I haven't been following ARU for a while but is ARU going to go into this alone I was under the impression and I stand to be corrected that they were looking for a J/V y/n?

cheers laurie


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## hangseng (18 May 2008)

laurie said:


> I haven't been following ARU for a while but is ARU going to go into this alone I was under the impression and I stand to be corrected that they were looking for a J/V y/n?
> 
> cheers laurie




I believe you may be right, either that or finance/cap raising will be required to initially develop Nolans Bore. Considering they only have approximately 145m shares on issue this won't harm the SP in my opinion.


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## enigmatic (19 May 2008)

i thought i keep this a little topical for all those missing out, as for some reason like last time i followed this stock there didnt seem to be much coverage.

over the last 3 weeks ARU has now climbed from 75c to a high of $1.47 today and at the rate it has been climbing i personaly will see it hitting its old highs.

This is a solid resource which only thing which has been against it is time, Thats what brought the sp down lastime. the mine was going to be 2011-2012 and it got changed to 2012-2013. Looks like everyone that jump ship last year are getting back on board.

Just my thoughts DYOR.


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## enigmatic (19 July 2008)

Looks like i was wrong about this one, although one could not blame me, this market has taken its toll on nearly everything.

I missed the last announcement made by ARU.
It has confirmed what i first thought when i got into ARU quiet some time back. 
Rare earth demand is overtaking, supply.
The REO export from china has reduced from
2004 - 48,500t 
2008 - 34,156t

Demand
China 60,000t
Japan 40,000t
World 20,000-30,000t

Demand has grown from 90,000t to 122,550t 2007 and with an expected demand of 130,000-135,000. Has proven that the demand is definitely there.
China is at the beginning of its development. If BURIC is as true as people say then demand with likely grow exponentially.

REO is an important for electronic and technology the Developing world is demanding to be apart of. It is important for the Energy efficency and Green house gas reducution.
More importantly it plays an important role in Rechargeable Batteries and magnets in motors which will play an important role in the knew Energy Environment we are entering into.
It is used in LCD Plasma and CRT Screens which we all know won't reduce just increase. who doesnt want a Bigger better TV.

This is only one part of the Nolan Project.
when the market settles could be a good time to accumulate this long termer.
2012 aint that far away. Hey by then China may not even be exporting any REO.


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## Starsweeper (28 December 2008)

@all investors in ARU

I have some simple question to you:



I bought a lot of this shares in 2007 here in Frankfurt. Since this time the price is going down. I for my one think, here we have a long term investment. They say the mine 'll start in 2010.

What was the reason to finishe this thread?

What are you thinking abuot this invest?

Thanks for an answer from some of you.

Sweeper


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## enigmatic (28 December 2008)

I see a great future in ARU.
they have recently increased there ore body by 60%.

But like you said it is a long termer the plant was original 2011-2012.
I believe it is was not postponed to 2012-2013 which was the reason for the drop in SP no one wants to wait arround for a spec when there are so many others arround.


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## Starsweeper (30 December 2008)

enigmatic said:


> I see a great future in ARU.
> they have recently increased there ore body by 60%.
> 
> But like you said it is a long termer the plant was original 2011-2012.
> I believe it is was not postponed to 2012-2013 which was the reason for the drop in SP no one wants to wait arround for a spec when there are so many others arround.




Hi enigmatic,

here, to your information, what Europa says this month to rare earth elements:

I think, it's very important for us!

Wishe you a successful, healthy year 2009

Sweeper

The EC is also proposing a new industrial mineral strategy for EU which focuses on the security supply of minerals used in high tech industries, such as rare earth elements and lithium. 
The EC report cites “export taxes and quotas, along with subsidies, price-fixing, dual pricing systems, and restrictive investment rules” as unfair restrictions on EU manufactories, compounded with low cost imports of high tech products from non-EU countries. 
“China, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, South Africa and India are among the key countries involved in applying such measures, while in many cases also benefiting from reduced or duty-free access to the EU market for related finished products, placing many EU industrial sectors at a competitive disadvantage”, said the report. 
The EC recommends that the EU pursue dialogue with industrialising countries, such as China and Russia, with a view to remove distortive measures that influence trade of minerals. It also wants WTO regulations on exports to be enforced and any breach to be challenged by the EU with all mechanisms available to settle disputes. 
The proposal comes as the EC recognises that production of certain industrial minerals, vital to the economy and industry of member states, are dominated by a small number of countries. China accounts for 95 % of global rare earths production, which is necessary for the production of autocatalysis, fuel cells, and portable handheld devices. 
Around 60 % of lithium production is in Chile and demand is expected to grow as the car industry turns to batteries. 
The EC is wary of the impact of mineral supply, since the boom in mobile phones led to a sudden availability crisis for tantalum in 2000, and would like to avoid similar situation.


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## Miner (12 January 2009)

Whereas ARU has a great future but the time line of getting fruit of this future is far ahead.

IMO the future is much ahead for LYC holders.

Having said that with automobile industry's fate and so many closures the fate of any rare earth element manufacturers like LYC or ARU is very thin in next 12 months.

Please do your research and I do not hold LYC or ARU.


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## ragchewer (18 April 2009)

Here's some news from Mining Weekly.com

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/another-chinese-company-makes-oz-inroads-2009-04-17

Rags


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## ragchewer (18 April 2009)

Here's long term look at the ARU monthly chart,

A large 5 wave corrective structure where waves overlap and now the possibility of a monthly isolation occurring this month if price closes above the high of last month at 36c.

There's clearly a pivotal point on the monthly at 44c 3 months back and possibly one around 36c--38c on the daily chart around last months high.

I have an expectation of a re rating for ARU very soon,all in good time.

Rags


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## Kalmsg (20 April 2009)

Jeez you are on the money Rags..
Will be interesting to watch and see how we go.

But certainly going to be cashed up.


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## ragchewer (22 April 2009)

Hi KalmsG,
             Nice to see you again my old friend,

Yes ARU looks like breaking out through the 38c mark quite soon and should get going after that.The monthly chart looks great for the longer term.

You recon there could be a good copper plant to buy up there in the NT LOL ,well atleast i can laugh now it's over.

Held up well today i thought,could have flushed out the weak hands also.

cheers mate "Time will tell",,lol,,already has the voyage across the sea is won by the one that stays a float.

Rags


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## ragchewer (23 April 2009)

well there's the pop out and an isolation on the monthly,

too much news of chinese money coming into the camp,

ARU looking for another up day tomorrow and then maybe a consolidation into a flag type of pattern and then further upside to close the monthly chart with sincere move as most Uranium stocks across the board heat up.

Rags


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## Family_Guy (23 April 2009)

I got this tip from one of the breakout alert threads and got on a couple of days ago at 35c and i was one of the dudes that dumped on the bell this arvo. Walked in at 5mins to 4, paniked because i saw it had passed my goal and sold. Wondered why BLR had gone nuts late this arvo but i didnt sell that. Funny what a little reading and knowledge throws up. I'd like to thank whoever it was that posted the chart a few days ago. Cheers.


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## ragchewer (24 April 2009)

greetings Family Guy,

 that would have been me,,,well done on the trade hope you have many more to come.

take care
Rags


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## ragchewer (24 April 2009)

***Rare Earths Make a Move

Both of our rare earths plays have had big weeks. There was some directly beneficial news for Arafura which I'll go through in a moment. As for the advancement in the Lynas share price, well, I can only deduce that either someone knows something we don't, or that it's just receiving the benefit of market action in other rare earths stocks globally. Oh, and the re-emergence of the China story. I'll keep you informed if anything does develop.

Anyway, back to Arafura. Take a look at the chart below that includes yesterday's price movement...

There's little doubt that it's being influenced by a gradual increase in volumes over the post month. And why not, the news has been good. The latest news is the decision by Jiangsu Eastern China Non-Ferrous Metals Investment Holding Co Ltd - thankfully labelled ECE for short - to fund up to $8 million in the Jervois Project joint venture.

Jervois is an old project for Arafura, but now, thanks to ECE taking a 51% stake in the project, drilling can begin to explore the Vanadium and iron ore deposits that previous testing has indicated.

And if you believe in the investment theory of buy low/sell high, buying into an exploration venture when the price has fallen by 75% in the last year...

(Chart of price of vanadium falling)... 

There are plenty of horror stories around of mining companies paying over the odds for a resource at the top of the market. We are sure there are far fewer stories of opportunistic companies buying in when the market is at the bottom.

I'm sure this would have been a fairly simple decision for Arafura management to take. Lock away $8 million and cement the relationship further with ECE on the rare earths side by giving up half the stake in an undeveloped project that was unlikely to get much attention from Arafura by itself anyway.

Looks like a good win-win deal for both sides.

Australian Small Cap Investigator
Friday, 24 April 2009
Melbourne, Australia
By Kris Sayce


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## enigmatic (7 May 2009)

well after talking this up for the past few years its good to see its finally getting the re-rating it has deserved for quite some time.. heading upwards quite strong with another 23% today had this one for the annual comp looking good so far..

DYOR


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## johannlo (25 May 2009)

Why is this particular stock so volatile? 15% up one day, 10% down the next, repeat and rinse. 

Compare to the other well known rare earths play LYC which has been much more stable. 

Is there a reason why this stock swings so much?


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## exgeo (28 May 2009)

From Timesonline. From The TimesMay 28, 2009.............................................. ............................................... 


> Crunch looms for green technology as China tightens grip on rare-earth metalsLeo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent Japan’s increasingly frantic efforts to lead the world in green technology have put it on a collision course with the ambitions of China and dragged both government and industry into the murky realm of large-scale mineral smuggling.
> 
> The robust international trade in illegally mined, quota-busting rare-earth metals highlights China’s near monopoly on the raw materials for environmental technology – a 95 per cent dominance of world supply that is likely to become more widely noticed as China tightens its grip.
> 
> ...


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## enigmatic (7 September 2009)

I thought i raise this one up again its been flying the last few weeks and with construction.. yes i know 2011 but its getting closer it is definitely one to watch.

With China tightening its grip on rare earth I can only see the prices heading North worth a look even at the current price.

DYOR.


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## enigmatic (8 September 2009)

Up another 24% today and still no interest. Playing this one day to day but still see alot of upside. will we head back to the high of 2007 could be interesting once everyone factors in the production of the mine and the value of Rare Earth. to the ever "Clean" industry


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## enigmatic (14 September 2009)

No one seems to be paying this one any notice except for ASX..

They got a speeding ticket today 78cents 8th of sept to $1.04 today although i have been following since 46cents 13th of August. Wonder if this has more legs.. 15% up on a down day isn't to bad


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## quarky (17 September 2009)

jumped into this at 1.26 early today.
then, saw the price slide all the way down for a close of 1.19
damn.

then, i come across this online


*Arafura set to receive $23m from Chinese group*

East China Mineral Exploration interested in future JV with rare metals explorer.


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## brettc4 (18 September 2009)

I am concerned about the departure of their CEO who has been there since 2004.

I picked some up at $0.515 so I am happy with it's performance to date, just not sure how the market reaction will play out. Will need to keep a close eye on this today and get out if it looks like the slide will continue.


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## treeman (20 September 2009)

Did you end up going out? I decided to go out before close, I guess tomorrow will tell if I panicked or not lol


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## brettc4 (20 September 2009)

Yes Treeman, I sold up.
I will keep an eye on it, out of curiousity to see how the news it taken. Hopefully I will pick something up which will help me in the future.

Brett


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## rhen (30 September 2009)

_Shasha Lu  Executive Director

Qualifications PhD, Masters degree

Appointed 21 July 2009

Ms. Shasha Lu was Executive Director and CEO of Hong Kong East China Non-Ferrous Mineral Resources Co. Ltd. (HKECE), a wholly owned subsidiary of Eastern China Exploration & Development Bureau (ECE). HKECE holds the foreign business interests of ECE.

As an employee of Arafura and based in Nanjing in the Peoples Republic of China, Ms. Lu is responsible for Business Development opportunities and synergies for Arafura within China.

Ms. Lu graduated with a Masters Degree from the Nanjing University in 1997 and completed her Doctorate at Tianjin University in 2005. She has held posts within the World Health Organisation in Geneva and the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. She is currently studying an EMBA in Nanjing University.

At present, Ms Lu is also a director of HKECE, Hongkong Southwest Gold Inc., Australian ECE Nolans Investment Limited and ECE Nolans Investment Pty Ltd._

With credentials like these, one can't but think positively about ARU.
Especially with the storm in a teacup over LYC...or is it?
I can't blame our Government for its actions. So how about this chink (pardon the pun) in the Chinese armour of rare earth dominance? 97% is the latest figure I have read.
 Its (ARU) chart is not too impressive at the moment. 

How will the two protagonists...protagonist/antagonist...resolve the rare earth bounty ARU must represent?


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## treeman (6 October 2009)

Interesting to watch, looks like the bears are comming out, im considering catching the knife if it dips to 60


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## ectoplasm (4 January 2010)

Hi treeman,

ARU is up ~ 10% on increased volume today. No news but seems to have made a bottom round here and seems set to bounce...

Daily chart, below:  --------------------------------------------------------------& Close up for them interested:


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## enigmatic (4 January 2010)

Something is up with this one today been very quiet until today up 5cents most of the day then suddenly up another 5cents.

looking forward to the announcement which is coming.. surely someone knows something we don't.


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## Sdajii (4 January 2010)

enigmatic said:


> Something is up with this one today been very quiet until today up 5cents most of the day then suddenly up another 5cents.
> 
> looking forward to the announcement which is coming.. surely someone knows something we don't.




I watched this one all day with great interest. I only hold a piddly little amount (less than 3,000 shares), but it's still exciting to see this happen. I tried to find out what was going on, but came up with nothing. Either someone just decided they really really wanted some for their own reasons and kept buying all day, or some stock recommendation site put up a buy recommendation, or (hopefully!) you're right and someone knows something we don't.

Presumably we'll either see an announcement or a speeding ticket tomorrow?


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## enigmatic (14 January 2010)

Some strong movement with this one lately up another 12cents today.
with the strong outlook of the future now becoming more of a reality again the worth of Nolan is huge.. 

Holding long term DYOR


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## skc (14 January 2010)

Another nice spike today on pretty large volume... what's the insider news?

Recent company presentation points to a project NPV of US$1.1B after repayment of capital... that's >$4 per share.

Even if you take a nice discount rate of 25% to 3 years out, the value today should still be ~$2.

Discl. Went long today. Researched afterwards.


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## enigmatic (14 January 2010)

skc if you look into this one you might find what i have.. reason i bought at 27cents  the NPV is great at current prices, however the trend of Rare earth growth in prices and demand is clearly out stripping the growth in supply.
Which will give an even greater NPV not to mention if they find more resource base.

DYOR. Long term holder


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## Sdajii (2 March 2010)

Does anyone have any light to shed on the situation? Things were looking pretty rosy, I would have expected a positive response to the capital raising at 62c, but suddenly *bang* they are trading in the 50s! Other than the possibility of people sitting around very happy with their profits and not willing to take part in a capital raising for more than they bought in for, I can't explain a poor SPP result, and I am at a loss to explain the immediate price drop to below 62c. I can't see this capital raising being successful, which is a shame. It would have been handy if it was underwritten. 

After buying in the 70s I increased my holdings in the 90s, and now in the 50s I'm not feeling great. I think the future for ARU still looks pretty good, but the current situation puzzles me.


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## ChrysalisB (3 June 2010)

ARU looks like a good investment now given the news that China has announced its intention to cap production of rare earths until year end and has also stopped issuing licenses to mine until next June. 

Further,China's Cabinet is examining a proposal to limit production of rare earths to a select group of State run enterprises,thus enabling complete control over export destinations and quantities. Given that China supplies 95% of rare earths to the world this has got to be positive news here as well.

Nothing wrong with protecting one's own national interests, especially when it also assists a trading partner. I say stuff the global elite's Conditional Trade policy they call Free Trade


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## oldblue (3 June 2010)

I've been looking at ARU and LYC for some time now, waiting for signs of real progress.
Anyone care to state the case for one over the other?


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## Sdajii (18 June 2010)

We've seen quite a rally today, up 11% today as of 1.30pm, following a big increase yesterday.

Does anyone have any idea why? Since LYC has only increased slightly I am assuming that whatever has caused the jump is specific to ARU, and LYC is moving up just because people are wondering what the interest in ARU is, and speculating that it might be about rare earths rather than ARU.

Disclosure: Very modest holder.


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## oldblue (18 June 2010)

Sdajii said:


> We've seen quite a rally today, up 11% today as of 1.30pm, following a big increase yesterday.
> 
> Does anyone have any idea why? Since LYC has only increased slightly I am assuming that whatever has caused the jump is specific to ARU, and LYC is moving up just because people are wondering what the interest in ARU is, and speculating that it might be about rare earths rather than ARU.
> 
> Disclosure: Very modest holder.




Presumably it's related to the update on Nolans which was released on 15 June. SP has been increasing since then.


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## Sdajii (18 June 2010)

oldblue said:


> Presumably it's related to the update on Nolans which was released on 15 June. SP has been increasing since then.




Strange to see little movement on the 15th, 16th and fairly little one the 17th, then BANG up 13% on the 18th. Not that I'm complaining.


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## jonojpsg (18 June 2010)

Sdajii said:


> We've seen quite a rally today, up 11% today as of 1.30pm, following a big increase yesterday.
> 
> Does anyone have any idea why? Since LYC has only increased slightly I am assuming that whatever has caused the jump is specific to ARU, and LYC is moving up just because people are wondering what the interest in ARU is, and speculating that it might be about rare earths rather than ARU.
> 
> Disclosure: Very modest holder.




Don't know anything news-wise, but have definitely been looking at ARU as a potential short term trade.  At 40c they were well due for a bounce given their last cap raising was at 60c and they have been trading around that.  While there is still a couple of years before they are producing, IMO they are good value even at 50c.


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## jonojpsg (21 July 2010)

And, as my last post noted, they were good value at 50c

Keep an eye on ARU - with China cutting back on rare earth exports AND the fact that they produce 95% of world production - there is little doubt that ARU stand to move pretty quickly back to previous levels (bounced to $1 in Jan).

Intraday high of 66c in April is resistance so if it breaks that then should head back towards 80+.

Doing my best to reinvigorate ASF


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## Sdajii (22 July 2010)

I'm still holding a modest amount. I think ARU has a very positive future, but with production not being too close yet I think patience is required by the shareholders. That, in my opinion, makes now a great time to accumulate this one, so that when it does get moving (which could happen at any time) you’re holding as much as possible which you obtained at the current bargain prices. The requirement for these elements is clear, and the situation with the supply puts us in a very nice position, but we're probably going to stay under the radar until we're closer to production. It could get moving at any time, but I expect it not to be too soon. At some point between now and production I expect a big rerating of ARU – this situation is fairly clear, it’s just not something a lot of people are currently too excited about, because of the timeframe.


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## blackjack (22 July 2010)

Sdajii said:


> I'm still holding a modest amount. I think ARU has a very positive future, but with production not being too close yet I think patience is required by the shareholders. That, in my opinion, makes now a great time to accumulate this one, so that when it does get moving (which could happen at any time) you’re holding as much as possible which you obtained at the current bargain prices. The requirement for these elements is clear, and the situation with the supply puts us in a very nice position, but we're probably going to stay under the radar until we're closer to production. It could get moving at any time, but I expect it not to be too soon. At some point between now and production I expect a big rerating of ARU – this situation is fairly clear, it’s just not something a lot of people are currently too excited about, because of the timeframe.




yes a long way from production and chinese all cashed up are looking for these plays so speculate
on it
i went for LYC as they are closer to production


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## Southern X (28 July 2010)

Being a long way from production is relative. The Australian REEs are light years ahead of the Canadian ones, including: AVL, GWG (which should vault forward for their South African mine alone, but does not), QRM (look for metallurgical news in August, it has HREEs), RES, UCU...

Only MCP, IPO'ing tommorrow, can be in production any time soon. Therefore, I believe LYC will be first past the post, MCP, then a close call between ARU and ALK. That said, I'm on the prowl for REEs with HREE deposits: QRM, UCU (drilling in Alaska), and; REEs on US soil, eg. UCU and RES (which has gold).

Disclosure: ALK, ARU, LYC, QRM, RES, UCU.

SX


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## johenmo (18 August 2010)

Was pleased with the jump today (due to/coincides with the announcement of rare earth price increases?).  Helps my meagre little holding along a bit.


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## Sdajii (18 August 2010)

johenmo said:


> Was pleased with the jump today (due to/coincides with the announcement of rare earth price increases?).  Helps my meagre little holding along a bit.




I'm only holding a meager amount too (under $5k) but I'm hanging on to amuse myself, and ARU is doing the job I hoped it would! I'm more than amused!  Originally bought in at 55c, went up to around a dollar, crashed back down to well under 55c, and now we're looking good again  Weeee!


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## BraceFace (10 September 2010)

Another Rare earths success story for investors.
Big profits recently for ARU, LYC and ALK

Look out now for PEK (see my post on that thread)
Maybe the next stock on the radar for investors interested in the rare earths story


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## NanoDuke (13 September 2010)

Sdajii said:


> I'm only holding a meager amount too (under $5k) but I'm hanging on to amuse myself, and ARU is doing the job I hoped it would! I'm more than amused!  Originally bought in at 55c, *went up to around a dollar*, crashed back down to well under 55c, and now we're looking good again  Weeee!




Back up to a dollar today after some promising news:
----

or more officially:
----


*Whoops* Can't post links yet. Meh, a quick search of the Google's News will fill you in if you haven't already heard.
Testing done at ANSTO's mini-plant operations has resulted in the successful production of commercial quality MREE and HREE products.


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## Sdajii (13 September 2010)

NanoDuke said:


> Back up to a dollar today after some promising news:
> ----
> 
> or more officially:
> ...




Fancy meeting you here! Today's announcement made me think of you, I was intending to have a chat about it  I'm enjoying this roller coaster (much more now than not so long ago : )


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## enigmatic (28 September 2010)

Well it looks like this project of Arafura Resources is starting to look like a real beauty, with Nolans Rare Earth prices breaking the US$50/kg level which now equates to over $1billion dollars of revenue per year from just Rare earth.

Just doing a few numbers and when the Rare earth price was between $10-$15 they were going to make profit.
so adding the $35 extra as all profit.. thats another 700million a year in profit for a currently $350million company. 
Plus all the profit originally and from there other 3 byproducts should be worth a bit.

only two major things holding this back from a massive explosion in price.
a) coin to get the project up and running, which should mean another capital raising down the track..
b) time, the project should be in production in 2013 which is still 3 years away. not soon for the speculators to be throwing money at it..

interested in watching LYC to see how it goes being a similar size and project.


----------



## oldblue (29 September 2010)

> interested in watching LYC to see how it goes being a similar size and project.




Is it really?

ARU has a M/Cap of $351m, LYC's is $2,195m!

Seems a huge difference if the major variables are timing and resource mix. How do they really compare?


----------



## jonojpsg (29 September 2010)

oldblue said:


> Is it really?
> 
> ARU has a M/Cap of $351m, LYC's is $2,195m!
> 
> Seems a huge difference if the major variables are timing and resource mix. How do they really compare?




Hey I was looking at exactly this yesterday!  LYC has 17m tonnes @ 8% REO for 1.4m tonnes of REO ; ARU has 30m tonnes @ 2.8% REO for 800k tonnes REO.

So I thought factors of about half for overall tonnage difference and another half for grade difference making ARU = 1/4 LYC in terms of market cap.  That would still put ARU about 50% higher than currently though, which maybe the market is starting to price in?


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## enigmatic (2 October 2010)

The interesting thing between the two projects is that ARU has by products which raise there value per Kg higher then LYC.

I'm still waiting for a new presentation which shows the comparison between the two projects from ARU.


----------



## jonojpsg (12 October 2010)

Thought I'd bump this after an interesting presentation of their business case released today which showed a NPV of $4b and that was at the mid range REO price target (around $38/kg compared to current spot price of $51).

I think their EBITDA was going to be greater than their current MC (around $460m) which means they are way undervalued even with 2.5 years to production.

SP jumped today, up 15% at the open but settled around 10% up now.  Even at $1.50 though the MC is only $450m.  Potential for a 10 bagger over the next three years


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## laurie (13 October 2010)

Market cap means nothing LYC has over 2 Billion shares on issue and is not a low cost operation don't forget shipping cost to Malaysia looking back a few months if this was the Melbourne Cup Race LYC was a runaway winner but at the last bend ARU comes storming home to win and may stay in front the next BIG news for ARU is its BFS..... this will tell the good or bad news 

laurie


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## jonojpsg (14 October 2010)

laurie said:


> Market cap means nothing LYC has over 2 Billion shares on issue and is not a low cost operation don't forget shipping cost to Malaysia looking back a few months if this was the Melbourne Cup Race LYC was a runaway winner but at the last bend ARU comes storming home to win and may stay in front the next BIG news for ARU is its BFS..... this will tell the good or bad news
> 
> laurie




Why exactly does market cap mean nothing??  MC is directly related to number of shares on issue, so ??

Obviously MC has everything to do with how a company is either under, over or fairly valued when considering their potential income.


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## laurie (14 October 2010)

The investment community uses market cap to determining a company's size, as opposed to sales or total asset figures or how well a company is preforming. It also makes a difference when dividends are distributed and from my experience those companies with large shareholdings further down the track have buybacks 

laurie


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## UBIQUITOUS (14 October 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> I think their *EBITDA was going to be greater than their current MC (around $460m) *which means they are way undervalued even with 2.5 years to production.




Even those REEs is a $1b global market? I'm not so sure

See the bottom of page one of this report

http://www.ucoreraremetals.com/docs/69555705.pdf


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## enigmatic (19 October 2010)

This one has been flying over the last month and a half. 
looks like people are starting to see the real value in this near term producer.


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## exgeo (19 October 2010)

May also be this news as well. Not sure if this is new news, or just an update of an older article though. The article is from today's newsfeed from NAB Online Trading:



> * China plans rare earths export cut by 30 pct in 2011-media
> 
> * Rare earth reserves may run dry within 15-20 years
> 
> ...


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## laurie (21 October 2010)

So I beg the question if REE is being squeezed by the chinese why then has there been no attempt to take over ARU or LYC we have seen CSM being taken over e.g. AOE,QGC,PES it makes me wonder why this is so in the sense the price was attractive not that long ago at .80cents for ARU 

laurie


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## fgarius (23 October 2010)

Hi Laurie

The Chinese can not take over companys in australian.Sie need the approval of the " Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) "

fgarius


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## shanti (4 January 2011)

Last price $1.70 
22c up today on the back of the announcement.  Hurray It's back into green teritory in my portfolio, was stuck with big losses fo awhile. With production forcasted soon 2011 could be a good year for ARU.


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## jonojpsg (31 January 2011)

Bought in today at 1.28 as it seems like 1.25 may be good support and is not far away as a stop point - only thing I was looking at the chart and it looked a little double toppish??  Anyone care to comment technically?

Fundamentally, with supply controlled so significantly by the Chinese, unless they suddenly reverse their export restrictions to hammer the price of REs and hence RE companies in order to then take over those RE companies  which they may well be capable of  then ARUs sp has some major appreciation to do over the next couple of years leading into production.  

Long time frame though, so we'll see whether my stop gets hit in the meantime


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## laurie (31 January 2011)

Amazing the price difference between ARU and LYC is still 50 cents! no matter how high or low LYC goes ARU brakes as it reaches the 50c difference, so it figures ARU will never overtake LYC 

laurie


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## jonojpsg (1 February 2011)

laurie said:


> Amazing the price difference between ARU and LYC is still 50 cents! no matter how high or low LYC goes ARU brakes as it reaches the 50c difference, so it figures ARU will never overtake LYC
> 
> laurie




Remember Laurie, sp comparison is irrelevant - need to compare market cap

Currently ARU MC is $476m - LYC is $2984m.  So LYC is 6 times the value of ARU.  LYC is also a couple of years ahead of ARU in reaching production so makes sense - am looking forward to ARU being valued at $3bn in a couple of years time though - on current no of shares issued would give SP of $8


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## laurie (1 February 2011)

MC don't always tell the story LYC has a dilution problem that can only be fixed with a say 5:1 consolidation if you had to choose which of the 2 will pay more in dividends it has to be ARU I understand MC=shares on issue x sp so it seems LYC has at least 2.1Billion shares on issue LYC issued more share as it had done more CR than ARU 

laurie


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## oldblue (2 February 2011)

According to The Age, LYC has 1,662m shares on issue.

But there's a lot more to any value comparison between the companies, the main one of course being the size and composition of their resource/reserves.

I'll leave it to the experts to analyse that!


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## Logique (3 February 2011)

Both ARU and LYC are on my watchlist. Well off recent highs. I'm now watching them very closely.


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## laurie (4 February 2011)

oldblue said:


> According to The Age, LYC has 1,662m shares on issue.
> 
> But there's a lot more to any value comparison between the companies, the main one of course being the size and composition of their resource/reserves.
> 
> I'll leave it to the experts to analyse that!




oldblue you are correct I got Market Cap and shares on issue mixed up apologies for the mistake next time I will check before quoting figures 

laurie


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## jonojpsg (4 April 2011)

Definitely more interest in ARU over the last week - up about 30% in that time - which makes sense given the numbers:

NPV with RE price $54/kg was about $6.5b
Current RE price $120+/kg   which would have to make NPV at least $14b 

Market cap $500m at current price - so really this is a NO brainer - must be a 10-20 bagger over the next 2 years.  I'm in anyways


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## Simpson (6 April 2011)

jonojpsg said:


> Bought in today at 1.28 as it seems like 1.25 may be good support and is not far away as a stop point - only thing I was looking at the chart and it looked a little double toppish??  Anyone care to comment technically?
> 
> Fundamentally, with supply controlled so significantly by the Chinese, unless they suddenly reverse their export restrictions to hammer the price of REs and hence RE companies in order to then take over those RE companies  which they may well be capable of  then ARUs sp has some major appreciation to do over the next couple of years leading into production.
> 
> Long time frame though, so we'll see whether my stop gets hit in the meantime




What do you mean by Double Top? I've never heard this phrase before.


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## jonojpsg (6 April 2011)

Simpson said:


> What do you mean by Double Top? I've never heard this phrase before.




Just a chart pattern - Google it and you'll find plenty.  Basically two peaks on the chart that hit the same level, separated by a trough, that CAN indicate a trend reversal.


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## RedLion22 (7 April 2011)

*ARU Premium REE Product - now $162/kg*

I've been tracking the price of Nolans Bore product via the following site: https://sites.google.com/site/4lynasheads/

ARU's Nolans Bore price attracts a premium pricing compared to peers. Nolans Bore now commands almost a $12/kg premium in pricing than Lynas' Mt Weld product.

I see ARU's better product mix (containing more Heavy REE) as an important factor in sustaining higher margins and competing long term.

Prices and daily change from 6 to 7 April (AUS) and the daily change are noted below.

Most importantly for ARU, Nolans Bore is not only a premium product, its price is rising faster than its peers.

Prices on 6 April 2011:

Mt Weld $150.28
Mountain Pass $138.24
**Nolans Bore $161.00*
Baiyun Ebo $144.61

Prices on 7 April 2011:

Mt Weld $150.48 +0.13%
Mountain Pass $138.28 +0.03%
**Nolans Bore $161.92 +0.57%*
Baiyun Ebo $144.67 +0.04%


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## RedLion22 (13 April 2011)

RedLion22 said:


> *ARU Premium REE Product - now $162/kg*
> 
> I've been tracking the price of Nolans Bore product via the following site: https://sites.google.com/site/4lynasheads/
> 
> ...




Updating - Prices up substantially again. Arafura price up 6.1% to $171.77/kg.

Prices on 13 April 2011:

Mt Weld $160.41 +6.60%
Mountain Pass $147.90 +6.96%
**Nolans Bore $171.77 +6.08%*
Baiyun Ebo $154.38 +6.71%


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## jonojpsg (14 April 2011)

RedLion22 said:


> Updating - Prices up substantially again. Arafura price up 6.1% to $171.77/kg.
> 
> Prices on 13 April 2011:
> 
> ...




Holy Shmit batman, that is 3 times the HIGH level they assumed in their PFS.  At $54 per kg the NPV was $6.6bn and now????  Can't see why the SP hasn't rocketed??  Surely a takeover must be a possibility given the low market cap and the tight supply situation?


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## Simpson (20 April 2011)

Jee Willikers indeed. I'd love to know why the shareprice hasn't reflected the price increases on nolans product. I'm no a analyst guru...hence why I'm here asking you guys.


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## RedLion22 (20 April 2011)

Simpson said:


> Jee Willikers indeed. I'd love to know why the shareprice hasn't reflected the price increases on nolans product. I'm no a analyst guru...hence why I'm here asking you guys.




Arafura is pre-production. It all depends how investors see the price over the next few years. ARU gets into production in 2 years from now (H2 2013). If prices stay high or go higher, the closer ARU is to production, the share price will benefit.

On the price for Nolans Bore, not relying on lynasheads website anymore. Prices can be obtained weekly from http://www.arafuraresources.com.au/pricing.html (updated as soon as Metal Pages UK updates its prices). Lanthanum and Cerium up 8.0% and 7.6% respectively in the last week.

*Latest price is ~$161/kg or $161,000/t, which would equate to $3.2Bn in revenue from 2013 at these prices from 20,000t or REO production alone, let alone all other by-products.*


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## exgeo (21 April 2011)

Simpson said:


> I'd love to know why the shareprice hasn't reflected the price increases on nolans product



 Probably the market is discounting the shares because they have to raise finance to build the thing, not sure exactly how much, but several hundred mill, or maybe over a billion dollars. That's one big hunk of debt/equity, or a mixture of both to be raised. Once that's put away, then something more like the "true value" of the shares might be realised. They also don't have contracts for offtake yet (intentionally, as the company has stated they wanted to take the best deal, not the first one; same with financing). Last I heard from the company they are in the early stages of sounding out financing options.


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## jonojpsg (24 April 2011)

Finance definitely a factor - BUT they have a Chinese co as major shareholder who always have access to capital...and when you look at $1b required then compare it to potentially $3bn in revenue *(or around $2bn in profit!!!!)* then that payback comes in 6 months.  Can't see any problem in finding finance on that basis.

Pre-DFS, pre-production is the big factor, but they have most of the key processing/site/mine permits etc sorted so I can't see why that would prove an issue...and the way RE prices are going, it seems likely that $50/kg is going to be the bottom end of the price range, not the TOP.

All in all, a market cap of more like $1b seems reasonable by the end of the year.  Probably worth jumping on LYC too given that they are only valued at $4b and will be raking in 11000000x150 (11k tonnes pa x $160/kg (current price) - $10/kg (cash cost)) = $1.65bn net revenue by end of this year.  Given they are ramping up to 22k tpa by end 2012, that makes $3b revenue vs $4b MC.  

Both worth getting on IMO.


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## RedLion22 (3 May 2011)

*US$ rare earth price up again $165/kg* and *Appointment of Financial Adviser*

US$ rare earth price up again

Cerium and Lanthanum were up +2.24% and +5.07% in Metal Pages latest update (28 April), not reflected on ARU's website.

I calculate Arafura's basket price for Nolans Bore at US$165.56/kg up from US$162.12/kg (20 April), an increase of 2.12%.

I believe that price increases in rare earths currently more than outweigh the impact of a weaker US$.

Appointment of Financial Adviser

The Quarterly Report says that the assessment process of a corporate advisor is well advanced and *selection is expected to occur in May*


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## RedLion22 (4 May 2011)

New York Times write up on Rare Earths

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/business/03rare.html?pagewanted=1&ref=global-home

Molycorp hitting all time highs tonight +8%


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## RedLion22 (4 May 2011)

*Arafura Interview - Sky News*

Link posted by ARU today

http://vimeo.com/23196312


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## RedLion22 (10 May 2011)

Can confirm the large price increases from Metal Pages UK. Very strong rises for Ce and La! (common LREEs)

Prices are Chinese prices, Oxide FOB China prices should be updated by Thursday (Oxide prices below give an indication of increases in Oxide FOB prices)

Ce Metal 99% min China +7.61%
Ce Oxide 99% min China +1.25%
Dy Oxide 99% min China +9.32%
Dy Metal 99% min China +4.35%
Eu Metal 99% min China +9.64%
Eu Oxide 99.9% min China +4.17%
Gd Metal 99% min China +8.25%
Gd Oxide 99% min China +2.67%
La Metal 99% min China +9.28%
La Oxide 99% min China +9.92%
Nd Metal 99% min China +2.26%
Nd Oxide 99% min China +3.50%
Pr Metal 99% min China +6.37%
Pr Oxide 99% min China +4.80%
Pr-Nd Metal 99% min China +6.41%
Pr-Nd Oxide 99% min China +4.88%
Tb Metal 99% min China +6.17%
Tb Oxide 99% min China +2.90%
Y Oxide 99.999% min China +4.17%


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## jonojpsg (12 May 2011)

Any day traders out there might want to jump in for a few cent gain...IMO of course, sell depth light from 1.10 up to yesterdays close of 1.145 and buy depth below 1.10 is reasonably good over next four ticks.

On a fundamental note, after watching interview posted recently here, the supply/demand issue is definitely in ARUs favour (and any other non-Chinese supplier) given the situation with Chinese export quotas, and as pointed out, even if China relaxed quota restrictions, they are using most of what they produce anyway.  Yes prices would drop considerably from where they are now ($150+/kg) BUT ARU is sitting pretty even at $50/kg 

Also, even if China slows, look at the comparison of say India and China vs Australia in terms of mobile device use (one of the main users of REs).  Aus has a mobile ownership rate of close to 100% - if China and India head towards that over the next 10 years that's a SIGNIFICANT amount of mobile devices!!  Plus all the electric cars/flatscreens/etc.

I am making this a cornerstone of my portfolio over the next 2-3 years to production as I can see it being a major gainer...all IMO of course, but the data is there to see so DYOR


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## Julia1979 (18 August 2011)

Big news for ARU today!! 

LOI signed with a ThyssenKrupp daughter about REO sales in Germany and cooperation.

regards
Julia


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## pixel (18 August 2011)

Julia1979 said:


> Big news for ARU today!!
> 
> LOI signed with a ThyssenKrupp daughter about REO sales in Germany and cooperation.
> 
> ...



 That co-op had been on the cards for some time; it would help explain the recent spate of accumulation, evident in the high trading volumes.
Anyway, it's nice to see it confirmed - I'm back on board


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## pixel (19 August 2011)

Arafura (and Lynas) also featured strongly in tonight's Catalyst on http://www.abc.net.au/iview/
The presentation was of course aimed at a broader audience, but may well rekindle some additional investor interest in REOs.

(not sure though whether tonight's slump in O/seas markets will give us much chance.)


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## Logique (4 November 2011)

The All Ords jumped up above 4300, important. Casting around, I know you're a follower of Arafura Julia1979, so had a look at a chart - looks solid.  Don't like the volatility of Lynas atm, makes me suspicious. 

In percentage performance terms ARU has been catching up to LYC this year. And then there's the LOI with ThyssenKrupp for REO sales in Germany. Overall quite a good story.  

(Typo in chart below: of course the high was in Oct '10 not '11)


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## jonojpsg (5 December 2011)

Definitely undervalued IMO - market cap of around $200m when Nolans NPV is about, what $6bn with REO prices of around $50 and even with the pullback in prices lately that is still about 60% lower than current REO price.  

I think RCR research report put the NPV at $3.70 per share with an REO price of $40 - and LYC is ten times the price of ARU albeit two years further down the track - so maybe a ten bagger over the next 2-3 years?  At least that's what I'm in for - hopefully recent low of 43c will be the floor - I'm in at 45


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## Logique (5 December 2011)

I'd like to believe the cancelled capital raising had more to do with the uncertain macro investment environment. The silver lining is that we didn't get sp diluted.  I'm below my entry price on this one, but I bought low, so no biggie.

Company management know they are sitting on quantity, high value reserves, and processing at Whyalla takes out the sovereign risk factor that Lynas has in Malaysia.


----------



## jonojpsg (5 December 2011)

Logique said:


> I'd like to believe the cancelled capital raising had more to do with the uncertain macro investment environment. The silver lining is that we didn't get sp diluted.  I'm below my entry price on this one, but I bought low, so no biggie.
> 
> Company management know they are sitting on quantity, high value reserves, and *processing at Whyalla takes out the sovereign risk factor that Lynas has in Malaysia*.




Yep Logique, that was a big factor in my anticipation of a better run for ARU than LYC - can't understand quite why SP hasn't been stronger though given the progress ARU have made with processing technology, integrating operations, etc?  Haven't kept up with LYC issues - what's the latest from Malaysia?  I guess any ongoing holdups are only a good thing for ARU?


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## Clansman (5 December 2011)

I would hardly call Malaysia sovereign risk. Ever been to Kuantan, it is not exactly the Congo.


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## laurie (5 December 2011)

Things will not go right for ARU if they keep delaying the project going from memory it's 18 months behind, I stand to be corrected


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## Kremmen (17 January 2012)

Big rise off the bottom today. 37c to 45c on quite large volume. I've not seen any obvious catalyst for the move.

(But happy to see it, as I became a holder recently.)


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## Logique (18 January 2012)

The speeding ticket from the ASX was warranted. The stock had risen 15% by the time the (run of the mill) announcement came out at 2:30pm yesterday.  It was a typical Arafura announcement, full of promise and flowery language.

Fact is ARU need $70mill soon to proceed with Nolans, and on the heels of the failed capital raising before Christmas, they are no closer to raising it. Management wouldn't have minded the rise in the sp though.

Same old same old with this lot.


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## Logique (18 January 2012)

Clansman said:


> I would hardly call Malaysia sovereign risk. Ever been to Kuantan, it is not exactly the Congo.



Yes a little overstated perhaps, I had in mind more the political game playing over the still awaited  Lynas LAMP license.


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## RobVan (18 January 2012)

Macquarie Capital is almost done collecting funds. Big players are buying in big to ARU. This company will take the lead from Lynas in a few months.


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## RobVan (27 January 2012)

Just picked up some ARU for cheap. It's a solid company with huge future, can't go wrong.


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## calais (10 February 2012)

The announced today tells us the BFS will not be completed prior to Q3 2013 provided they get funds in the next couple of months.

Is that another delay of 9-12 months?

Originally the completion of the BFS was supposed to finish mid year 2011, then announced they need to expand the BFS for nine months and now another delay.

So, provided they raise the funds needed to complete the BFS and construction taking 18-24 months Arafura will not start processing till late 2015.

That's my timetable for Arafura, would like members feedback on this topic.


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## Dang (10 February 2012)

calais said:


> The announced today tells us the BFS will not be completed prior to Q3 2013 provided they get funds in the next couple of months.
> 
> Is that another delay of 9-12 months?
> 
> ...




That's pretty much the way I read it.  Fortunately for me holders didn't freak and push it into my trailing stop territory.  But looks like we're in for a long term hold before we see the returns we're expecting.  IMO the correction is fairly well measured.  Thought about being a bear and selling my meager 4500 shares so I could buy them back cheaper after the fright, but I figured I'm in this one for the bull run, so I gritted my teeth and rode it out.  I would love to know how many of the 5M+ shares that changed hands over the day are back in the same hands at the end of the day.  The intraday chart shows a quick and nicely damped correction to a sensible price, no massive overshoot to the bottom before recovery.

Still massively undervalued if you ask me, if I could I would buy more at this price.


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## laurie (12 February 2012)

lol guys they have blown $250M to get where they are now god only knows where that money went


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## Logique (17 February 2012)

Slash and burn of the Board, see the latest ASX announcement.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120216/pdf/424d53cvtpst6l.pdf

CEO stepped down, two directors retired, and another two elected to step down.


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## pixel (26 March 2012)

Progress with Thyssen-Krupp: formalising offtake agreement
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01282090

30c looks like support at last. I'm back on.


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## Julia1979 (15 June 2012)

laurie said:


> lol guys they have blown $250M to get where they are now god only knows where that money went




TH, next capital raising to come.  Never thought ARU would go back to the teen-level, now even single digits look possible. I wondered if there was problems with the BFS due to rapidly falling REO prices. Apart from the BFS there are still - after all these years - so many potential delay issues like the approvals in Whyalla.
When I first bought ARU shares in 2005 we discussed 2010 as a realistic date of production. Now we are talking about 2015.  
Little people could foresee the banking and credit crisis that is not even close to be solved. But it seems to me that the people at ARU are continuously ignoring who financed them. The way they treat shareholders is really quite a shame IMO.
I might buy some more ARU in the low teens but not much. Just shocking to see how such a promising stock with highest expectations turns into a such a nightmare. 
regards 
Julia


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## pixel (16 June 2012)

pixel said:


> 30c looks like support at last. I'm back on.




needless to say that I got off as soon as 30c failed to hold.
... and while it's so clearly resumed the downtrend on various fronts and counts, it's remaining off my watchlist.


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## Kremmen (26 June 2012)

As we continue to play the "how low can it go" game, the Chinese have poured another $9.9M in at 22c. It's starting to look like there's some support at 20-21c now.


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## beatthemarket (26 June 2012)

The demo plant still needs to be run (costing 6M), and the BFS finished (~60M) vs current cash of ~28M... 

9.9 just raised.. wonder is that's enough?


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## Gringotts Bank (4 July 2012)

Looks like it might pop. Plenty of room overhead, up to 29c.


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## Crows (29 August 2012)

At 18c now... Wonder where its headed..


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## pixel (23 November 2012)

Crows said:


> At 18c now... Wonder where its headed..




miniscule volume so far; but if someone injects $Millions at 22c a pop, I reckon there's more upside than risk of failure. I bought some yesterday.

Speccie rules: stop at 17c, first target 23c


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## pixel (16 February 2017)

That was a looooong time ago.
but they're still alive. Just
Another amazing rally - and Trading Halt heading into another cap raising.


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## pixel (17 November 2017)

While all eyes are on Lithium, as a key facilitator of cleaner energy, other essential elements have been pushed into the background. Notably Neodymium and Praseodymium.
If recent reports, tabled around the AGM, are any lead, Arafura looks set to change that. Currently trading in a narrow band between 10 and 11.5c, there appears to be some patient accumulation going on. Given the strong support at 10c, I reckon disciplined stop-loss can limit the downside risk, while a break above 11.5c resistance should result in some profitable upside.
DYOR and FYOP. I am doing just that


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## pixel (5 January 2018)

Slowly but surely, the Market reacts and buys the news.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01939257
If the immediate resistance at 12c is taken out, I see 14c as the next hurdle.





Price and Volume moving up together, confirming MACD Bullish Divergence.
I hold, leaning towards accumulation. 10.5c support must hold - or else.


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## greggles (29 March 2019)

A revivial in interest in Arafura Resources this week.

Following the release of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Nolans Project on 7 February 2019, ARU management has escalated its engagement with potential offtake and financing partners. Arafura has signed two non-binding offtake MoUs for its three rare earth products to date, which it aims to convert to contracts in the coming months.

If good news comes through in the near future, we could see a further move north as the Nolans Project continues to firm up.

ARU up 9.43% to 5.8c so far today on volume of 1.5 million shares.


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## Nicks (11 April 2019)

Company is about to start building for production at the perfect time.

Product is increasing in demand for technology for the future.

Govt policy all over the world is favourable to much higher demand for the product.

Market cap 50M.

Annual revenue at least 500M.

NPV between 80M and 1.9B! Where in this range depends on demand.... See above.

WES wants in on this stuff as they know the potential. This is a shrewd company who know where to invest (and its not supermarkets any more!).

Significant Govt support expected as it creates long term jobs in the area.

Strategically positioned close enough to Alice Springs for daily commute, just off Stuart highway. Train and gas there too.

Gov and Environmental approvals all done. Tick.

Mine life 23 yrs plus.

Plenty of immediate cash with no significant expenses coming or planned.

After a few years preparing 2019 is the year it comes together and the shares are cheap. Whats not to like. It would be a different sell if the share price was already reflecting all the above but it isn't. Market and long term holders have gotten tired of ARU. This is when you strike. Opportunities like this are hard to find. Its the perfect nexus of things aligning. I'm loading up!

Shares therefore could realistically be worth 10x current market cap by this time next year, i.e 70c+


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## barney (15 April 2019)

Nicks said:


> Market and long term holders have gotten tired of ARU. *This is when you strike*.




Agree …..

Haven't looked close at this one but the Chart is taking shape as well.  

Cap Raise in the process which will I assume will be "big" news. 

SP normally suffer a bit after a major cap raise, but this will be one to watch over the next few months.


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## barney (16 April 2019)

barney said:


> *SP normally suffer a bit after a major cap raise*, but this will be one to watch over the next few months.




Raising $3 million at 0.05 cents  ….. Not exactly inspiring for current holders.


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## Smurf1976 (22 May 2019)

Price has been volatile but today reached the highest level since November 2018 before falling back significantly. High of 7.6c and close at 6.2c. A week ago it was at 5.1c so quite volatile.

Also current market depth has more than twice as many buyers than sellers so seems to be some interest there.


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## Smurf1976 (29 May 2019)

Up 22.86% today to a close of 8.6c

This is a volatile stock though - my comment is an observation and drawing it to the attention of others but is not a recommendation as such.


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## barney (30 May 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Up 22.86% today to a close of 8.6c
> 
> This is a volatile stock though - my comment is an observation and drawing it to the attention of others but is not a recommendation as such.




Yeah … ARU got belted for a month after the 5 cent cap raise and has gone ballistic since. Big Volume last couple of days too.

Hindsight tells us it was likely just the deeper pockets extracting Shares from the "weaker" hands but that is hard to ascertain at the right hand edge of the chart of course.


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## greggles (30 May 2019)

She's up again today, reaching an intraday high of 11.5c on volume of more than 23 million shares, even more than yesterday.

The breakout is clear enough. The mystery is why did it start moving yesterday when there has been no news of note since 15 May? And no speeding ticket from the ASX either.

It might have something to do with this comment from the announcement dated 7 May:

*Mick Billing, Executive Chairman, commented:* “More very good XRF tungsten results along with exciting copper readings from the Samarkand deposit at Bonya.”

“The proposed Molyhil processing facility is designed to extract copper as well as tungsten and molybdenum so any primary copper at Bonya can be extracted at minimal additional cost.”

“We look forward to the full laboratory assays from this drill program, along with results from the costean sampling from Marrakech and Tashkent, * all expected during May.*”

Interesting.


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## Nicks (12 June 2019)

It's all about Rare Earths people....

- China's monopoly,
-  Strategic risk to USA, Japan, EU, and the rest of the world
- China's domestic demand increasing consuming all their supplies
- Technology advancements and trends needing forecasted multiple increases of rare earths
- Australia's low sovereign and geopolitical risk
- ARU being right at the point of commissioning having completed all DFS and Govt approvals
- Favourable Aus Gov
- Forecasted supply shortages
- China a risk of rare earth supply
- Increasing rare earth prices
- Basically a perfect storm!

Still cheap and ready to go given the above.


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## Nicks (13 June 2019)

Momentum is building. Fundamentals sweet.

*US enlists Australia to*secure* rare earths supply*


*Angus Grigg* and *PhillipCoorey*

Jun 13, 2019 — 1.03am


US defence chiefs have enlisted Australian help to secure the supply of critical minerals for batteries and weapons systems, to reduce China’s dominance of the sector.

Australia is part of a Washington-led effort, which also includes Canada, to ensure materials critical for advancedmanufacturing and the move away from fossil fuels are not controlled by Beijing.


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## Nicks (13 June 2019)

Arafura called out in the Australian Financial Review as a winner in the trade war, this is getting a lot of attention.

https://hotcopper.com.au/attachment...e=US+enlists+Australia+to+secure+rare+earths+


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## barney (13 June 2019)

Nicks said:


> Arafura called out in the Australian Financial Review as a winner in the trade war, this is getting a lot of attention.



Going gangbusters today!!


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## Telamelo (4 August 2020)

Picked up another rare earths minnow in the making ARU @ 0.074c +5.71% (breakout alert) as looks good with about $22M in cash and Northern Territory Government backing (per recent 31/07 announcement).

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/aru

DYOR as always.. Cheers tela


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## Telamelo (4 August 2020)

ARU +7.14% chart shaping up to show a very bullish candle (with big volume) that should see 8c+ soon imo Exciting times  Cheers tela


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## peter2 (20 November 2020)

The market is slowly working through the supply at 0.105. When that's done, whoosh.


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## finicky (11 January 2021)

Up 20% today, +24m volume





	

		
			
		

		
	
Daily


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## barney (11 January 2021)

peter2 said:


> The market is slowly working through the supply at 0.105. When that's done, whoosh.




Right on the money there @peter2   Hope you were still on.


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## barney (11 January 2021)

finicky said:


> Up 20% today, +24m volume





Opened 15.5  Closed 18   .... Positive!


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## Dona Ferentes (15 January 2021)

another RE stock on the up (no news; Speeding ticket on 11th; then onward and upward)

_three month; daily_


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## againsthegrain (15 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> another RE stock on the up (no news; Speeding ticket on 11th; then onward and upward)
> 
> _three month; daily_
> View attachment 118510



upcoming cr?


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## divs4ever (10 August 2021)

ARAFURA SHARE PURCHASE PLAN TO CLOSE EARLY

10 August 2021 Arafura Resources Limited | ABN: 22 080 933 455 Level 6, 432 Murray St, Perth WA 6000 PO Box 5773, St Georges Terrace, Perth WA 6831 T: +61 8 6370 2800 | W: www.arultd.com | E: arafura@arultd.com Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) (“Arafura” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that there has been a high level of shareholder interest and participation in the Company’s Share Purchase Plan (SPP) that was announced on 24 June 2021. At the general meeting of shareholders on 9 August 2021, the Company obtained shareholder approval to raise a total of $5.5 million (before costs) under the SPP. This includes up to $500,000 in oversubscriptions. Given the strong interest in the SPP (and the maximum amount that can be raised) the Board has decided to accept the maximum amount under the SPP (of $5.5 million) and close the SPP early to minimise the impact of any potential scale back of applications. Accordingly, the SPP will now close at 5.00pm (Sydney time) on 13 August 2021, instead of the previously planned closing date of 23 August 2021. Any application monies received after that time will not be accepted and will be returned. A revised SPP timetable for the remainder of the SPP is set out below: Timing (Sydney time) Event 5:00pm, 13 August 2021 Closing date 20 August 2021 Announcement of results 20 August 2021 Issue date 21 August 2021 SPP Shares quoted and commence trading 21 August 2021 Despatch of holding statements The Board would like to thank all shareholders for their support of the SPP and the Company. Not for release to US wire services or distribution in the United States

 DYOR

 i do not hold this share 

 something you don't see often , close a SPP early because it is over-subscribed


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## peter2 (11 August 2021)

Glad to see this cap raise is near an end. 
Let the market force be with us and hope that the current bullish sentiment for RE gets to *ARU*.


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## peter2 (25 August 2021)

Could this be another lift off in *ARU*?  





	

		
			
		

		
	
   Don't disappoint me again.


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## Sean K (26 August 2021)

peter2 said:


> Could this be another lift off in *ARU*?




Looks good Peter. Next hurdle 16c, then about 20. 

I think I owned this in the naughties when it was a uranium explorer...


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## greggles (27 September 2021)

ARU has been going great guns the last few days. Gap up on open today, with the share price up from 13.5c last Tuesday to a high of 24c today.

No news has been announced recently, but the following article from The Age seems to be the catalyst for the recent bullish price action.









						Carmakers look to Australia to hedge against China’s rare earth dominance
					

European automakers are in discussions with Australian rare earths explorer Arafura Resources about sourcing elements that help power electric cars from outside China, which dominates global supply.




					www.theage.com.au
				




ARU looks to be heading back towards its January highs.


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## peter2 (27 September 2021)

Thanks @greggles was wondering why the sudden demand without any news.


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## peter2 (27 September 2021)

*ARU* responds to "speeding" query and cites media reports (AFR, Bloomberg, etc). No mention of ASF.


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## tech/a (30 September 2021)

*My October comp pick*


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## peter2 (20 December 2021)

Another commodity selection for 2022. 

*ARU*: Slowly making progress on their rare earths resource. Anticipating price making a new all time high in 2022. 






Disc: Been all over this one so many times that I've got sand in my bathers. Will hammer the next PB setup.


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## sptrawler (21 December 2021)

As with peter2 above, the move to EV's is now well underway, so the demand for rare earth magnets for EV motors should take off, add to that the unreliable supply line from China and these second tier supplies will be fast tracked IMO.


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## PetEarwig (31 December 2021)

I'm taking ARU as one of my 2022 yearly comp selections. Their Nolans project in the NT "is the only NdPr focused project in Australia that plans to mine and process ore to oxide at a single site". NdPr is used in NdFeB magnets, vital for electric vehicles, robots, cellphones, wind turbines and MRI machines. I expect the share price to rise as there is a push for electric vehicles and ARU will be moving closer to production throughout 2022.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 March 2022)

_Some battery mineral miners are posting strong gains in morning trade following reports that Scott Morrison will announce $243 million in grants for projects that allow Australia to capitalise on the boom in electric vehicles._

_Arafura Resources (ARU)  will receive $30 million which will contribute to the construction of a $90.8 million rare earth separation plan at its Nolans project. The stock surged 18 per cent to 23¢._


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## peter2 (16 September 2022)

Another stock in demand as the closing auction price (0.365) is significantly higher than the 4pm price (0.350). Very high volume in the closing auction.

I sold *ARU* today as price drifted lower than the price at which I added to the initial position. Granted the add was a little late as 0.34  would have been better (after HVBB).  I'll be ready to re-buy ARU if it trades higher. There's a strong underlying demand for most companies with significant rare earth resources.


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## peter2 (18 October 2022)

Bought a speculative position in *ARU* today as price is back down near their last cap raise price level (<0.30). 
Noticed todays bid for *HAS,* another RE company.


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## System (1 November 2022)

On November 1st, 2022, Arafura Resources Limited changed its name to Arafura Rare Earths Limited.


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## mullokintyre (6 November 2022)

Acording to the Murdoch Press ARu which is in a trading alt, will announce an offtake agreement with Hyundai.


> South Korean industrial majors have taken another step towards locking in security of supply with Australian rare earth producers, with Hyundai signing an agreement with Northern Territory hopeful Arafura.
> Arafura Rare Earths is expected to emerge from a trading halt on Monday to announce it has locked in a binding sales deal with the South Korean carmaker, sealing an agreement first reached in May.
> 
> The deal with Hyundai comes as the race to become Australia’s second major rare earth oxide producer heats up, following Iluka Resources’ October agreement to buy concentrate for its planned WA refinery from Northern Minerals.
> ...



I dont hold.
Mick


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## peter2 (6 November 2022)

I do hold and I'm a little angry that information like this is released to the press before it's reported to the ASX and the ARU shareholders.


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## Sean K (7 November 2022)

Been going sideways for a while. Might get a kick this morning.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 November 2022)

Sean K said:


> Been going sideways for a while. Might get a kick this morning.



yep


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## rcw1 (16 November 2022)

Good evening
The fruits of yesterday arvo's announcement (*see attached) were revealed today.
Nice one. 17.14% gain for ARU.

Not holding.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## rcw1 (16 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good evening
> The fruits of yesterday arvo's announcement (*see attached) were revealed today.
> Nice one. 17.14% gain for ARU.
> 
> ...



*Was just thinking:*

OPTION EXPIRING 29-FEB-2024  ASX: ARUO
 Last Price (AUD) $0.084   Today's Change  Up $0.020  (31.25%)

A good punt.  Kindly conduct your own due diligence.

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## rcw1 (21 November 2022)

Good afternoon
Reported today (21/11/22):  
Arafura Rare Earths is granted access authorities for its 100 per cent owned Nolans Neodymium-Praseodymium Project in the Northern Territory.

The Northern Territory government granted the access authorities for corridors for the construction of the process plant site and village access roads, mine access road and borefield access tracks and pipeline routes.

“Granting of the Access Authorities is one of the many things that the team at Arafura have been working on over the past year, in parallel with front-end engineering and design, product offtake, and project funding," Arafura’s managing director Gavin Lockyer said. "It represents another important step towards commencing construction on the Nolans Project.”

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## qldfrog (26 November 2022)

This puppy popped up as a strong buy in 2 systems so why not this month's competition choice😊


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## peter2 (3 December 2022)

Trading halt for another cap raise.


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## sptrawler (4 December 2022)

peter2 said:


> Trading halt for another cap raise.



Are they actually doing something with the money? or just more drilling.


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## finicky (4 December 2022)

Hiring more story tellers.

The beating heart of the perpetual loss making operation:


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## qldfrog (4 December 2022)

qldfrog said:


> This puppy popped up as a strong buy in 2 systems so why not this month's competition choice😊



So they did a nice pump up before CR.Classic rort.
I still got a parcel which will lose cash for sure
This is one known drawback of system trading,


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## peter2 (5 December 2022)

Four months earlier ARU raised A$41 million capital to "progress development of the Nolans project".
-------------------------

Now ARU raises another A$121 million to accelerate the Nolans Project development schedule. Issue price 0.37 (last trade 0.44).

Hancock Prospecting is a cornerstone investor, committing to invest $60 million (post completion interest ~10%.


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## qldfrog (5 December 2022)

peter2 said:


> Four months earlier ARU raised A$41 million capital to "progress development of the Nolans project".
> -------------------------
> 
> Now ARU raises another A$121 million to accelerate the Nolans Project development schedule. Issue price 0.37 (last trade 0.44).
> ...



I can not wait to volunteer, I am so lucky one of my system invested , just lost 10% :-(
4 months between capital raising seriously....


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## bk1 (14 December 2022)

Has quickly regained SP after the CR of 05 Dec and now through previous June highs.
Heavy volume.


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## qldfrog (24 December 2022)

one of my stock of the year
the narrative is not over and with Russia/China conflict, might benefit ..and is small SP so better chance


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## qldfrog (31 December 2022)

qldfrog said:


> one of my stock of the year
> the narrative is not over and with Russia/China conflict, might benefit ..and is small SP so better chance



And my choice for january tipping comp.
Highly gambler's choice, and i even hesitate to own but we could see a dead cat jump second week of january into speculative narrative stocks


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## Iggy_Pop (3 January 2023)

ARU is one of my picks for the CY23 stock tipping comp. My focus is on an EV impacting the market with rare earth's being a key part of this industry. ARU recently raised 120 million to help with construction costs. This caused a dip in share price but quickly recovered. Should be good growth over the next 12 months. 

Iggy


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## redsmartie (Sunday at 4:18 PM)

I got this squared off tightly, 26% of nothing is nothing, comparison is dead, perspective is everything, yes the cheque for approx 74% of what I bid turned up in the mail on friday. Just a pity I gouged the market to pay for my $750 worth and got punished.

Well worth it in the end?

Cheers


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