# I'm surprised the market opened lower today



## hotbmw (9 December 2008)

I guess its due early selling on financials due to the WBC share placement this week?

or is there more?

it will probably finish on a high after early selling?


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## Trembling Hand (9 December 2008)

hotbmw said:


> it will probably finish on a high after early selling?




Well there is a good lesson. Fade Wall street. 60% of the time you will be a winner and the wins will be much larger than following.


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## derty (9 December 2008)

What do you mean by 'fade Wall Street' TH? It is a term I haven't heard before.


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## Trembling Hand (9 December 2008)

If we gap because of overnight action in the States do the opposite.

If we open up sell the open or first lower high.
If we open down buy the open or the first higher low.

Especially if its the after a few days of the same moves in the same direction like this morning.


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## Miner (9 December 2008)

Since we are not in Queen's birth place, it is always good to get something written in PLAIN English for little vegemites like me, to appreciate some of the tangential write up . 

Please consider PLAIN English


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## korrupt_1 (9 December 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> If we open up sell the open or first lower high.
> If we open down buy the open or the first higher low.




Hi TH...

good to see you back.. there was a thread concerned about you being missing for awhile... 

Was wondering if you know the reason why it fades? Profit taking from previous day? I've never understood the mechanics on why that strategy works so well..

Dow up.... sell SPI
Dow down... buy SPI...

eh... if it works more often than not... than it's a good strategy to play.


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## Trembling Hand (9 December 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> good to see you back.. there was a thread concerned about you being missing for awhile...



 No need to worry about me. Just enjoying the good life



korrupt_1 said:


> Was wondering if you know the reason why it fades? Profit taking from previous day? I've never understood the mechanics on why that strategy works so well.



Profit taking!! What the hell does that mean? for every profit there is a loss. That is just crap that is spewed out by Muppet media fools who haven't a clue.

The reason why it works so well is for two reasons,

1st the SPI is forward looking. We predict the US moves.

2nd is this is a game of taking money off someone else. The easiest people to take money off are the ones that get their ideas from last nights news. 


korrupt_1 said:


> eh... if it works more often than not... than it's a good strategy to play.



Need I comment on that?? Or is that a comment


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## chops_a_must (9 December 2008)

TH's PHD in finance:

Cretinism and How Asian Markets Tell The US Where to Go.


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## cuttlefish (9 December 2008)

hotbmw said:
			
		

> I guess its due early selling on financials due to the WBC share placement this week?
> 
> or is there more?
> 
> it will probably finish on a high after early selling?





Yes pretty sure the WBC placement announcement was why the XFJ was down significantly more than the XAO today.  (XAO -0.57%,  XFJ -3.5%)


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## MRC & Co (9 December 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> 2nd is this is a game of taking money off someone else. The easiest people to take money off are the ones that get their ideas from last nights news.




LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.


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## derty (10 December 2008)

Thanks TH, I'd noticed that the stamped in or out of stocks after large movements in the DOW and that if you were buying with the DOW movement it was a less than optimal time to buy.

I take it that when you 'fade' the DOW you are only in the trade for a few hours at most? Or do you just use really tight stops and see where it goes?


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## Trembling Hand (10 December 2008)

derty said:


> I take it that when you 'fade' the DOW you are only in the trade for a few hours at most? Or do you just use really tight stops and see where it goes?




I trade a more frequently than that but if you doing the fade type of trades yes they are all over within hours max.


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## Trembling Hand (10 December 2008)

That's funny DOW up 2 days ago we drop next day 

Dow down last night we climb 

That can't be right "we always follow the DOW" 

 LOL!!


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## tech/a (10 December 2008)

I remember raising a eyebrow to Yogi's comment that the XAO would de couple from the Dow around Nov.
God knows how he got that from his astro analysis!


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## Trembling Hand (10 December 2008)

You saying they have disconnected?

I reckon that's just normal behaviour.


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## Frank D (10 December 2008)

*DOW and S&P Weekly charts*

The US markets are already trading around their own Weekly highs resistance.

Therefore there is an expectation that around those highs  sellers will appear.

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

The SPI is still trying to get to those highs@ 6770.

And looking at price action there probably a good chance that today 
keeps heading higher, and wouldn't surprise me to see the SPI trading
 around Wednesday's highs @ 3711 by today's close (as long as price
 is above 3629)

Why do I think it's going to 3711 today?

Because of the R44 'gap-reversal' pattern around today's lows, which 
often trends higher into the close.


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## Trembling Hand (10 December 2008)

Frank you don't use the 9:50 to 10:00 price action on your SPI charts?


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## Frank D (10 December 2008)

TH,

Yeah for sure...

first trades today were in that period 'shorting' @ 3609.

There is a section in my book called *'open-trading'*

*Open-trading* is when price opens inside the last 44 point range from the previous day. 

The next day doesn't officially open until that last 44 points completes.

I always trade in the direction of the Spiral point, if it's a higher R44 bar then highly probable that the first range needs to move down 44 points before it decides it's direction.

Frank


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 December 2008)

tech/a said:


> I remember raising a eyebrow to Yogi's comment that the XAO would de couple from the Dow around Nov.
> God knows how he got that from his astro analysis!



Perhaps he knows what he is doing Tech. 

I think I read an article that mentioned his name "Yogi" the other day, can't remember where though.


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## skc (10 December 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Perhaps he knows what he is doing Tech.
> 
> I think I read an article that mentioned his name "Yogi" the other day, can't remember where though.




It could be the Yogi mentioned in SMH's diary of a day trader column...he's a senior chartist or something. Then again, that column seems mostly for entertainment purpose anyway.


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## rub92me (11 December 2008)

tech/a said:


> I remember raising a eyebrow to Yogi's comment that the XAO would de couple from the Dow around Nov.
> God knows how he got that from his astro analysis!






It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Perhaps he knows what he is doing Tech.



No he doesn't actually. Let's look at the facts shall we?
In the 230 trading days prior to 1/11/2008 the All Ords followed the Dow Jones 131 times (and 99 times went the other way). 
In the 27 trading days from 1/11/2008 the All Ords followed the Dow Jones 20 times and 7 times went the other way. 
So if anything, they're more 'coupled' now than they were before.


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