# AUD/NZD



## cashnet (11 October 2009)

Dear Forex Traders,

I just need some technical/fundamental advice on the current state of AUDNZD... Do you see it hitting 1.30 anytime soon? What's your thoughts... 

I range trade currently and did a stupid 1.0 trade impulsively and now very nervous!

Account Balance: $27k + $10k being processed on Monday... Balance will then be $37k

      2 x 1.0 MONSTER trades....

      AUDNZD 1.0 CURRENT LOSS: $668.68

      AND

      EURCHF 1.0 CURRENT LOSS: $27.87

LIVE STATS HERE: cashnet.mt4live.com

I close the EURCHF definetly on Monday for a loss of hopefully under $100.

ANY SUGGESTIONS OF ANY OTHER TRADES I SHOULD CLOSE OR LEAVE OPEN? HEDGE OR NOT? (Purely as a trading exercise)

Now, about the AUDNZD trade... I really do not know what I want to do. Is it possible the AUDNZD will reach 1.30? Crystal ball?

In March this year it hit 1.29 and took approx 7 weeks to drop back down. 

Julian, are you really sure about this "false" economic data? I really do hope so...

I will also not play with the magic numbers.

Anyone know where I can use a forex calculator that can advise me of how much margin I will need for the 1.0 AUDNZD trade if it does hit 1.30. I need a simple one as i'm not very good at maths.

Once again... Thanks for your support I'm sorry to have burdened you with this.


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## white_goodman (11 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*

I is confused....

this is what im looking at atm...


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## cashnet (11 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*

What do you mean by trouble there? My margin may be called? Price will breakout to high 1.29 or 1.30. What kind of hedge strategy could I use? I'm very worried. 

Here is all the details of my ****ty trades: forum.forex-assistant.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=283

some advice would be great. Thanks for reply already.

Anyone have any ideas or suggestions?


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## Mr J (11 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*



> What do you mean by trouble there?




Big trendline that will see a good chance of reversal if price reaches it. Almost none of your post makes sense to me .


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## white_goodman (11 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*

from what Ive read, he's using an EA and worried that price will get to 1.29 area... of course there are no stop losses...

what i recomend is you stop using the EA and learn to trade as soon as you close all positions, its only a 10% hit and is a great lesson (one that 99% of us will or have taken)


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## Mr J (11 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*

My brief googling suggests EA = electronic advisor, so would that mean he's bought a system/software or something?


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## white_goodman (12 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*



Mr J said:


> My brief googling suggests EA = electronic advisor, so would that mean he's bought a system/software or something?




bought/found etc etc


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## Stormin_Norman (12 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*

ahh the glories of robominer.


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## lukeaye (12 October 2009)

*Re: AUDNZD*

can i suggest you stop trading immediatley.

I hope that is a demo account?

you need some money management.

you are going to blow that hole account. take a step back and learn money management


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## SeM0s (13 December 2010)

*AUD/NZD December 12, 2010*






Current Price:  1.3163
Resistance Levels:  1.3275, 1.3380, 1.3505, 1.3560
Support Levels:  1.3100, 1.2990, 12950, 1.2815

After breaking above the 1.2950 level, the price swiftly reached our target of 13150. We expect the top to form here within the range of 1.3158 to 1.3360. It is possible that we may already have a short term top in place at the December 09, 2010 high (1.3213). If this is the case, we would expect a correction down to around the 1.2925 area, from where we expect the next leg of the upward move to start.


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## mauriforex (24 April 2013)

Good evening,

today we had a quiet day, from a macroeconomic perspective, and the most important market move will be released in a few hours (the interest rate in New Zealand, which is expected unchanged at 2.50%).
The markets closed a very positive session, expecially for Paris and Madrid, with a weaker euro due to the negative data on manufacturing PMI below expectations.
Tomorrow we will have from Australia the Consumer Price Index and from U.S.A. the Durable Goods.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: the oceanic pair is consolidating around the support area 1.22 /1.2150 within a short term bearish movement. The price is always below the EMA21 with decreasing tops, so a breakout of level 1.2140 might lead to a continuation of the downward trend to 1.2050 as first target area and then, eventually, to the second one at 1.1940. Anyway any trading decision should be taken after the announcement of the interest rate in New Zealand which is just coming in a few hours!



Greetings,
Maurizio


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## MARKETWINNER (12 May 2013)

Now another top investor has become bearish on the AUD.

Stanley Druckenmiller, who made $1 billion for George Soros as his chief strategist by forcing a devaluation of the British pound in 1992, said the Australian dollar will come down and will come down hard,"

Japanese investors and another top contrarian investor became bearish on AUD before others and they sold AUD and AUD related bonds before others.

Now I have some concern about AUD after reading following links.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/08/druckenmiller-investors-should-short-australian-dollar/ 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...nds-betting-against-australian-dollar-1-.html 

http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/educat...7079323/the-aussie-dollar-will-come-down-hard 

My opinion on the currency market:

There was a time some wanted to touch EURO instead of USD. So they fell in love with EURO. Instead of falling love with it at least they should not have dumped USD to get EURO. There were other bull currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD in addition to few Asian bull currencies.

Now we have to see currency market in a different way. Sooner than later bull currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD will become bear currencies. NZD will hit hard as one of the most overvalued currencies in the world. It can go down sharply. Now USD has become bull currency. We will see beginning of bull markets for few currencies including few Asian currencies. Few Asian currencies can appreciate sharply from 2014.

In short this is the time to become bullish on USD. Later we can become bullish on few more currencies. It is also time to stay away from AUD and NZD. This time Japanese investors and another top contrarian investor became bearish on AUD before others and they sold AUD and AUD related bonds before others.

Recently Japanese investors dumped Australian debt at the fastest pace on record earlier this year. Suddenly market players including bear crowd all became bullish on USA and Japanese market. Some of these crowds not only became bullish on USA market but also on USD number one reserve currency in the world.

In short AUD and NZD dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle and the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle.

In short I am bearish on AUD, NZD and CAD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


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## sinner (13 May 2013)

Just on the NZD "as one of the most overvalued currencies in the world" ....

My currency value metrics show the NZD to be only moderately "expensive" against the JPY and CNY, and moderately *"cheap"* against USD, EUR, GBP.

Checking against the Daily Big Mac Index confirms this view.

AUD on the other hand is expensive against CNY, JPY, USD, GBP and steady against EUR. 

CAD is moderately expensive against all currencies.

So the data seems to point that yes some of the comdolls are "overvalued", but NZD is definitely the least overvalued.


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## MARKETWINNER (19 May 2013)

Today I saw following article.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/sunday/may_transcript_the_aussie_dollar_rS3dsK4aJRhdYB4sJry1XP
May 19 transcript: the Aussie dollar


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## MARKETWINNER (7 June 2013)

Very interesting. AUD is downgrading one by one now. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130607-701062.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
National Australia Bank Slashes Forecast for Aussie Dollar 

http://www.rttnews.com/2132049/aust...ype=cm&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=sitemap

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Weaken On Caution Ahead Of U.S., China Data

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites


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## MARKETWINNER (21 August 2013)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...sus-dollar-before-fed-minutes-kiwi-drops.html

Aussie, Kiwi Fall for Third Day Versus Dollar Before Fed Minutes


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## notting (31 January 2014)

Market appears to be betting against the expected rate rise in NZ.
 A couple of hours ago - Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler has confirmed he expects to raise the benchmark interest rate to about 4.5 percent in the next two years to curb inflation.
And Ausi rallies against it.


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## albaby (1 February 2014)

Lovely pinbar on the monthly,lots of space if it breaks 1.09 Al


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## MARKETWINNER (2 February 2014)

If I am correct AUD hit 8 Years low against NZD recently. This situation could change during next 24 months. Just like stock markets currencies also have cycles. I believe NZD could depreciate against USD and GBP faster than AUD. In the medium run and long run NZD could depreciate against AUD rapidly. It is time to study currency cycles. I consider NZD as number on overvalued currency in the world now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## PipSafe (6 March 2014)

As it is obvious in the picture below, price in AUD/NZD currency pair from the end of 2011till now was in a Downtrend  that Sellers have the price close to the supportive levels’ range of 1995 and 2005.Price has formed a bottom price with reaching to the specified supportive levels in the picture below and it has stopped from more descend and has started a little ascend with shows exit of some Sellers from their trades. Currently price in monthly ,Weekly and daily time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.

In Monthly time frame with formation of hammer candlestick pattern, there is a warning for formation of a bottom price (need to be recorded) and vulnerability of downtrend.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a Gartley pattern between the bottom price of 1.04912 and the top price of 1.09446 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.As it is obvious in the picture below, Stoch indicator is(Daily and h4) in saturation sell area and warns about ascending of the price during the next candles.Generally according to the technical signs in the price chart until the mentioned supportive levels are preserved, the price has the potential to increase and ascend.


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## PipSafe (18 March 2014)

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.03.05 , according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1.07578 and after that the price has started to decrease.According to the formed movements in the last days , there are an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern and Doji which shows indecision marker for ascending or descending and there is a warning for stopping of more descending.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic Bat pattern between the bottom price of 1.04912 and the top price of 1.09446 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles. Generally until the bottom price of 1.05364 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation.


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## PipSafe (29 March 2014)

*Re: AUDNZD*

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.03.17, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1.07382 and after that the price has started to decrease. Currently price in H4 and H1 time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.

As it is obvious in the picture below, price has been stopped from more ascending with reaching to the Down Trendline made of several resistance points (buyers leave their trades) and with creating the top price of 1.07382, the field has been prepared for descending.

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency, in long period of time there is good potential for growth of price but According to the current situation there is not any clear reason about ascending of price in H4 and Daily time frames. The least sign for ascending of price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in H4 time frame.


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## PipSafe (24 June 2014)

*Re: AUDNZD*

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of AUD/NZD dated 2014.06.09, according to the formed technical signs, there was the potential for descending of price which finally happened. Sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.07435.Currently price with teaching to the up trendline ( made of 2 bottom prices) has been stopped from more descend and with forming of the hammer and inverted hammer candlestick patterns which warn the possibility of formation of a bottom price.

Stoch indicator in daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles and Currently if the resistance level of 1.08548 breaks, there is a warning for ascending of price in this chart. Generally until the bottom price of 1.07435 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.

Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD dated 2014.06.23


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## MARKETWINNER (10 August 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...lar-vulnernable-to-intervention-ubs-says.html

New Zealand Dollar Vulnernable to Intervention, UBS Says


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## PipSafe (2 December 2014)

AUD/NZD from the top price of 1.13021 was in a strong descending trend without reformation that could record the bottom price of 1.07615.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Up Trendline (made of 3 bottom prices) and also the s1(pw)of 1.07685 and has created the hammer candlestick pattern. Closing of the bullish candle after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price.According the general ascending trend and not observing a clear technical reason for ascending of price in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly, if the price level of 1.07615 breaks, the price will have the potential of reaching to the support range in this currency pair.

s2(wp)1.06988
s3(wp)1.05781

obvious in the picture below, between the bottom price of 1.07615 and the top price of 1.13021 there is ABC harmonic pattern with the ratio 161.8 that by completing the end point of this pattern, there will be a warning for forming of a bottom price.Generally the first sign for ascending of the price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in daily time frame.


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## PipSafe (19 December 2014)

*Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD Dates 2014.12.18*

AUD/NZD during the recent weeks was in a strong and consistent downtrend that Sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.04713.Price has been stopped from more descend by reaching to the specified support levels(261.8 and WPP) in the picture below and with exit of some Sellers from their trades, the ideal Hammer (H4) and Spinning Top candlestick(Daily) patterns have been created. These candles shows vulnerability and indecision market in ascending or descending of price that for confirmation it needs closing of a bullish candle.

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 1.13010 and bottom price of 10.4713 there is ABC harmonic pattern with ratio of 261.8 that warns the potential of ascending from the C point of this pattern.RSI indicator is in saturation sell area in daily(also h4) time frame and in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction during the next days. The first important warning for ascending of price is breaking of the 1.05998 resistance level(the highest level of price changes in previous day).


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## PipSafe (21 February 2015)

Technical analysis of AUD/NZD dated 20.02.2015

AUD/NZD since 2011 was in a long term and strong downtrend which is currently among the lowest prices. Sellers could achieve the lowest price of 1.0299 during this downtrend.Right now price has been stopped by reaching to the round level of 1.0300 and supportive levels’ range (made of 3 bottom prices dated back to 1995) and by making a bottom price had a little ascend.

formation of hammer candlestick pattern on 19th day in daily time frame, there is a warning for the first failure of sellers in achieving lower prices and formation of a bottom price for increasing of the price in this area.RSI indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and also in divergence mode with the price chart which confirms the bottom price of 1.0299 and warns about changing price direction.Generally according to the formed signs in price chart until the bottom price of 1.0299 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.


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## craiggary (1 May 2016)

This Pair looks to be at a crossroad now.  We have a confluence 1.09 Handle which has been a really significant inflection point in the past as seen on the daily TimeFrame, and also the 200 day Moving Average.  We have hit wave v vss iv 161 Target and moderately below 123 C Vss A Target.  I'm expecting a good bounce for Aussie at this level, but given the strength of the move down i would like to buy on the breakout, i want to know the Price Action is going in my direction.  RBA meets on Tuesday AU Time, Anything other than a interest rate cut is probably going to be bullish for AUD if Kiwi was any indication.


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