# Losing patience... the day of reckoning will come however



## noirua (1 January 2011)

My rule was to keep 70% to 80% in cash or short term bonds, however, I lost patience in 2010 and speculated quite wildly. 
After receiving a lot of cash from the takeover of Felix Resources by Yanzhou Coal, I got a bit carried away. [we were robbed as the $18.05 bid should have been $24 to $27 a share, one day I may know the answer to this]
Anyway, I was fortunate, there was a bull market in the mining sector, now I'm gradually going back to my 70%+ cash levels. If the market had crashed in spring 2010 I would have been up a gum tree.

Perhaps the comments by the late Bob Beckman are more right than I thought, "the only time I did badly was when I failed to take my own advice". 

Before my trading was principally in Australia but I was drawn to the UK's AIM madness market. I dived in and out of stocks like an out of control 'day trader'. One problem for many is trading T20 to put off the pay day and then closing out by T2, a problem only if stocks go down. 
Number one rule on AIM is, "it's never wrong to take a profit" and two "gladly leave some profit for the next guy". 3 is, "take losses quickly as they often widen, don't hesitate, close out".
Never allow yourself the opportunity to say, "Oh well, I'm holding on for the long term" - admit it, "you've failed".

2011 looks to be a good year ahead but I think there is going to be a time to cash in our chips. China, Asian and Arab investors are still piling in [near every sector in Australia] and newer up market properties in places like Sydney are likely to travel on up quickly - the day of reckoning WILL come however.

The mining and oil sector is likely to climb fast, though it depends whether your company is an explorer or has big producing mines and whether the 'big wet' has damaged them badly or not - the day of reckoning WILL come however.

So it's glory in 2011 investment profits, remember though, cash them in for the day of reckoning WILL come.

Good fortune to you. My motto for 2011 is, 'run your profits then cash them in' - Good luck, noi


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## Sean K (3 January 2011)

Yep, I also failed to take my own advice with a few stocks that I became emotionally attached to. I'd been telling people to sell, sell, sell, any time they made some decent profits, but alas, I failed to heed my own advice.


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## noirua (30 January 2022)

noirua said:


> My rule was to keep 70% to 80% in cash or short term bonds, however, I lost patience in 2010 and speculated quite wildly.
> After receiving a lot of cash from the takeover of Felix Resources by Yanzhou Coal, I got a bit carried away. [we were robbed as the $18.05 bid should have been $24 to $27 a share, one day I may know the answer to this]
> Anyway, I was fortunate, there was a bull market in the mining sector, now I'm gradually going back to my 70%+ cash levels. If the market had crashed in spring 2010 I would have been up a gum tree.
> 
> ...



11 years have passed and I look at my own advice and realise that very little has changed in the world since.  The Yanzhou bid at A$18.05 proved to be timely as everything fell apart in the coal sector not too long afterwards.

My cash aim was 70% to 80% and the problem with that is; when our shares go down in value the cash naturally rises by percentage.  That has happened in recent weeks and my cash is at 42%. No where near target so a need to be regretful.

I'm still trading in London's AIM madness market but not using T20s. Well only twice about 6 years ago and it went wrong -- so,  it's 'No, Nay, never, No, nay never no more'. I've taken losses quickly and that has had about 65% success and has noticeably improved matters - managed to carry on doing this despite seeing a few shares rocket after I sold.

My AIM investments have been far less in mining shares which turned out fairly neutral. That saved me in my Canadian investments during the mining decline. Though I missed out on the recovery.

Bitcoin arrived and the coin investments and Bitcoin mining shares did outstandingly well. However, 40% of the profits have gone down the Suwannee river since - maybe they can swim and recover?

Investing in Hong Kong proved more complex than I thought. Now I've four unquoted companies in Hong Kong one of which reversed into Mainland China.  The two gold shares slumped and for some reason I've just watched them reversing - every announcement says how wonderful their company is.

Australian investments have been all over the shop.  I'm still OK due to Felix Resources in 2010 rising from its comparative low of 35c to $23 from 2003 to 2008.  Probably still OK due to the St Barbara Mining rise from 2c to $2.80 in 1994 - they say we get one or two lucky wins once or twice in a life time - half the profits paid off earlier debts and commitments.


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## noirua (30 January 2022)

What of the next 11 years.  I sit wondering and realising that circumstances in markets change so much nothing is at all certain.  Maybe investing should always be seen as gambling if it's in individual companies.  If a company is in a high risk sector do not put $5k in it if you would not put the money on a horse.

It is so easy to get drawn into investing in a company. Surely if a big company was once $8 then it must be dirt cheap at 30c.  Those who kept adding cash into OneSteel and White Energy will tell you it is not, to their sorrow.  Not selling up for a loss means a portfolio will gradually be full of losers not worth selling.  2021 in America saw more suicides due to losses since 1929 - sometimes there is no way out of a disaster unless you are Donald Trump.

The future might be in cryptocurrencies as countries like Iran and Russia see that as a way out of their difficulties. This looks like a sector where money is going to be won and lost as countries wage war against each others in crypto.  Some think Stablecoins are the sector to be in - up to you where you go on that.

As always being a forced seller can prove disastrous.  Great if a person is retired with a house worth $2 million, a pension of $1,500 per week, other assets worth $2 million - then you can play the markets in reasonable comfort.  But if you are buying a house, have a family growing up and are reliant on wages coming in every month. Or indeed something not much better than that - then disaster is always on the horizon if investing or playing the markets.

Timing in the gold and silver sector among shares is a call that if made in a timely fashion will be the call of... basically your call.  Australia, Canada and America is where most of these shares are. Remember large caps go up more slowly and fall more slowly. Medium caps in the sector can fall 50% to 80% and rise equally rapidly. Small caps and especially microcaps can fall up to 100% but can rise as much as ten fold.
You might say, "that's obvious" - having seen that remember the trap is set for us all and equally of course the golden crown may be yours.

Good luck!


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## qldfrog (30 January 2022)

noirua said:


> What of the next 11 years.  I sit wondering and realising that circumstances in markets change so much nothing is at all certain.  Maybe investing should always be seen as gambling if it's in individual companies.  If a company is in a high risk sector do not put $5k in it if you would not put the money on a horse.
> 
> It is so easy to get drawn into investing in a company. Surely if a big company was once $8 then it must be dirt cheap at 30c.  Those who kept adding cash into OneSteel and White Energy will tell you it is not, to their sorrow.  Not selling up for a loss means a portfolio will gradually be full of losers not worth selling.  2021 in America saw more suicides due to losses since 1929 - sometimes there is no way out of a disaster unless you are Donald Trump.
> 
> ...



That is a great reflecting input.thanks


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## sptrawler (30 January 2022)

I think  @noirua that is why IMO it is still best for a young couple, to pay off their PPR before investing in shares, it is something they can enjoy and benefit from for the rest of their lives.
 If they invest in shares, they well may have to sell at a bad time, due to unforeseen circumstances, the loss is twice as bad, if the money lost could have paid of debt.


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## sptrawler (30 January 2022)

An interesting article, on the influx of first time investors in the stock market, I guess all that extra savings in the pandemic has to find a home.








						First-time traders hit 400,000 during pandemic
					

The jump provides further evidence of Australia’s version of the so-called Robinhood phenomenon, with 1.25 million active retail traders nationwide.




					www.afr.com
				



New research has put the total number of active online investors in Australia at a record high of 1.25 million, after 435,000 people placed their first trade on the sharemarket in the past 12 months.

A survey of almost 20,000 investors by research house Investment Trends found a 34.8 per cent jump in the number of active traders, defined as those buying or selling shares at least once over the 2020 calendar year.


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## qldfrog (30 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> An interesting article, on the influx of first time investors in the stock market, I guess all that extra savings in the pandemic has to find a home.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Actually quite scary.expect more crazy things from BTD,FOMO to sell all push
is there a way to profit from this, or at least get protected?


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## frugal.rock (30 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Actually quite scary.expect more crazy things from BTD,FOMO to sell all push
> is there a way to profit from this, or at least get protected?



It should be noted that the article is from March last year.

The money side of things; retail money in the market increased around 20% YoY for 2020 and 2021 (approximately), and as a result, it has been estimated that retail money now accounts for around half of the market in AUS or US or both. Fact checking required, but this is the overall picture to my understanding.

Thus the itchy trigger fingers and higher volatility on swings. 
Over time, this money will probably slowly reduce as it gets redristributed to smart money and withdrawn to pay down debt and buy goods and services.


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## divs4ever (30 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I think  @noirua that is why IMO it is still best for a young couple, to pay off their PPR before investing in shares, it is something they can enjoy and benefit from for the rest of their lives.
> If they invest in shares, they well may have to sell at a bad time, due to unforeseen circumstances, the loss is twice as bad, if the money lost could have paid of debt.



 that depends  ( now i am a low debt kind of guy, BUT ) 

 now IF you had managed say a 3 year fixed mortgage  , would you be better paying DOWN the mortgage ( but not completely paying off ) so that at the end of the 3 years  you COULD close the mortgage comfortably , leaving with a safety buffer either way ( refinance the mortgage in three years if time treats you harshly , or having the credit buffer   for the volatile times that seem to be coming 

 i know there is  a ' borrow , then leverage , then borrow , then ,,,'  school of thought out but that ISN'T me 
 if you have a cash buffer , keep an open mind  there MIGHT be other opportunities outside the share market


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## sptrawler (30 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Actually quite scary.expect more crazy things from BTD,FOMO to sell all push
> is there a way to profit from this, or at least get protected?



Obviously a few people have our concerns frog.  




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




But should millennials actually be keeping funds sitting in a cash bank account? Even when house prices are soaring and when there are other ways to build wealth? In most cases, yes. It’s definitely frustrating to have your money languishing with no growth amid rising inflation — especially when everything from crypto to NFTs is being touted as an investment opportunity. But the old-school financial wisdom prevails: It still makes the most sense to hang onto your down payment fund.


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## Smurf1976 (30 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Actually quite scary.expect more crazy things from BTD,FOMO to sell all push
> is there a way to profit from this, or at least get protected?



Just my personal opinion but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a huge melt UP from here to new all time highs and getting there rather quickly.

My logic being that there's a lot of new traders in the market and they've been conditioned that markets always go up so buy the dip.

Then once we're at that new ATH and there really are no more buyers left we'll get the top.

Just my half a cent worth as a possible scenario.


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## qldfrog (30 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just my personal opinion but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a huge melt UP from here to new all time highs and getting there rather quickly.
> 
> My logic being that there's a lot of new traders in the market and they've been conditioned that markets always go up so buy the dip.
> 
> ...



Perfectly possible and the reason why, while my discretionary is fully bear and would make a killing on a crash, i am not worried by my systems having around 13 buys planned tomorrow


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## wayneL (31 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just my personal opinion but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a huge melt UP from here to new all time highs and getting there rather quickly.
> 
> My logic being that there's a lot of new traders in the market and they've been conditioned that markets always go up so buy the dip.
> 
> ...



Dalio et al and a few of the Banks are bearish, but there are certainly most elements of a von Mises crack up boom in place...

Certainly not out of the question, even if we get a deeper retracement from here.

IOW, the Fed ain't done yet, that driver is still in place IMO.


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