# Trading Pattern Alert Thread



## tech/a (20 June 2013)

*Post trading pattern alerts and charts with commentary here!*


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## CanOz (20 June 2013)

Great Idea Tech. I don't trade ASX stocks, but here is a nice pattern on JHB to watch for those interested.

I posted on the scan thread as well.

also, PPT, a descending triangle.

CanOz


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## CanOz (20 June 2013)

Just so i don't get accused of being too bearish...here's one to watch if the market gets some bullish legs...


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## pavilion103 (20 June 2013)

The NAB one might be worth posting too if you want.


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## CanOz (20 June 2013)

Here is the NAB chart. I still see no pattern but it is a typical Grail setup where it has been in a strong trend and pulled back to the 20 EMA. that is a short signal in itself, however i still like to wait for a pattern, Not saying there was not a pattern available intra-day, say on a 30 minute time frame.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (20 June 2013)

To keep you on the right side of the market, Nick always recommends using the index as a filter. I'm not exactly sure what he uses, perhaps its an MA of some sort. Its very effective for Nick's Power Setups and is mentioned in Unholy Grail's as well.

Here is what I'm testing now, its a version of Supertrend. So the idea here is to take only longs when the bars are blue and above the 50 SMA. Then take profits, no more new longs when the bars turn red. By now you should be scanning for shorts, but be mindful of the chop that can occur. Then when we are below the 50 and RED its all shorts...until blue again....still testing this idea but it has potential.

Here is the ES and the SPI

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Caveroute (20 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Here is the NAB chart. I still see no pattern but it is a typical Grail setup where it has been in a strong trend and pulled back to the 20 EMA. that is a short signal in itself, however i still like to wait for a pattern, Not saying there was not a pattern available intra-day, say on a 30 minute time frame.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Its interesting how opinions van vary .........,

For me, a pullback to the 20 period EMA in a strong strong trend means think long. 

I don't do indicators but what I see in the chart is:

Strong bear trend to end May, followed by an exhaustion gap and a failed final flag reversal.

Followed by a deep wedge [ 3 pushes] to  early June, terminated by a reversal pattern, where we then expect a 2 legged bull trend.

This first leg of the pull-back has completed and the very last bar is the first pullback, which is a long signal.

The bigger picture is we have a major trend reversal, the end May high should get tested and then followed by either a trading range or , 40% chance, the start of a new bear trend. 

I just need more hindsight.


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## sinner (20 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> To keep you on the right side of the market, Nick always recommends using the index as a filter. I'm not exactly sure what he uses, perhaps its an MA of some sort. Its very effective for Nick's Power Setups and is mentioned in Unholy Grail's as well.




Index filters +1

There is obviously the "tech/a 180EMA of lows" as made famous on ASF.

Another very good one is the 13 bar closing donchinian on the weekly chart (quarterly trend).

I use something like the 200SMA of highs and 200SMA of lows to create "hysterisis bands".

Volatility is really important for this idea, you will find that low volatility assets don't "time" well.


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## CanOz (20 June 2013)

Caveroute said:


> Its interesting how opinions van vary .........,
> 
> For me, a pullback to the 20 period EMA in a strong strong trend means think long.
> 
> ...




A Grail setup is not an opinion....it a signal generated by a set of rules using indicators.

Again, the only opinion i offered was that there was no pattern there, in my opinion. You can see whatever you want to see, the question is though, how do you trade it?

I don't take Grail signals, i just use the ADX and the momentum indicators to gauge the strength of the move, then i use the pattern....No pattern, no trade for me.

CanOz


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## fiftyeight (20 June 2013)

What is used to decide if the bars are blue or red?


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## CanOz (20 June 2013)

fiftyeight said:


> What is used to decide if the bars are blue or red?




My indicator has a little "twist", but generally this is SuperTrend...



> Super Trend Indicator
> 
> 
> The Super Trend is a trend-following indicator. It is based on a combination of the average price rate in the current period, and a volatility indicator. The ATR indicator is most commonly used for this purpose. This indicator has 2 parameters: Period (the ATR Period), and Multiplier (ATR is multiplied by this value and added to the average price).
> ...




There is also a very popular and expensive trading system that looks very close to SuperTrend call AbleTrend.


I don't use it as a trading system, but you could write some rules and use it as a "mechanical" trading system. Perhaps someone has backtested this here. It typically wins about 40-45% of the time and ends up unprofitable due to the choppy periods. If you can filter out chop it should do ok. Still remains an effective index filter.


CanOz


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## CanOz (25 June 2013)

Did anyone get short on these?


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## kid hustlr (26 June 2013)

I liked the look of the JBH one. I dare say you would be in the red at this stage based upon entry. Do you think you would have been stopped out Can? looks like it got to 16.25 or so.


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## CanOz (26 June 2013)

kid hustlr said:


> I liked the look of the JBH one. I dare say you would be in the red at this stage based upon entry. Do you think you would have been stopped out Can? looks like it got to 16.25 or so.




No idea really, i don't trade ASX Stocks for the simple reason that shorting isn't always available and they cost too much to trade.

I've got three shorts still alive on the US market, 2 of Nick's and one i found. Sometimes i reckon you're better just taking 1:1 reward or slightly better as the whip saws are crazy. Up 1500+ one night and 600 the next.That's with only three positions on....

CanOz


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## chops_a_must (26 June 2013)

Thoughts on QBE?

Looks like a pennant has formed within an ascending triangle.


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## Wysiwyg (16 February 2016)

Fisher & Paykel have been trending up from around $1.50 in 2012 and many patterns associated with the trend have been formed. The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.


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## Newt (16 February 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.
> 
> [/ATTACH]




LOL - will have to remember that final phrase Wysi - very true!  :

Another perspective on FPH - weekly log chart.  
(must declare I'm on this one)


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