# High conviction long-term stock picks



## TPI (25 November 2014)

Hi,

Does anyone currently have any high conviction long-term stock picks where you have allocated say as much as 20-30%+ of your overall portfolio to a single stock, with the expectation of it eventually being multi-bagger?

Or have you done so in the past with success or failure?

I don't have any currently, but a couple of years ago I started my SMSF with the full amount (which was very small after years of no contributions being self-employed) invested in the big 4 banks, so 25% for each one.

CBA was $50.10 at the time, so this strategy worked out ok, but it was more luck than skill as I knew little about shares and just picked what I thought was the most obvious shares for a beginner.

Thanks.


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## So_Cynical (25 November 2014)

TPI said:


> invested in the big 4 banks, so 25% for each one. but it was *more luck than skill* as I knew little about shares and just picked what I thought was the most obvious shares for a beginner.




Its more luck than skill for most of us, having 30% of your portfolio in one stock will make the luck factor very apparent...multi-baggers = more luck, i bought SGH in October-2011 for $1.76 now sitting on 264% profit, similar story for IIN, both selections just dumb luck however the great entry's (both significant bottoms) were not total luck.

Long term convictions for me recently are VED and RIC both stocks i see as long term holds,  dividend payers with some potential to continue dominating their markets and for those markets to grow both locally and internationally.


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## sptrawler (26 November 2014)

IMO the thing is don't be emmotional, look at a company as if you wanted to buy it.

It's as simple as that, if you think their model is good, and their balance sheet is good. Best of luck.


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## Value Collector (27 November 2014)

I put decent amount into czz because I was confident in was undervalued when it was in the low $2's, you can see I posted about in the czz thread.

I have always made longterm allocations, and coming out of the Gfc over the last 5 years many have been multi baggers, 

What I have found though, is you have to be patient, the big gains can take a couple of years to play out, and in the mean time everyone will tell your wrong, because to get the biggest gains you have to be going against the popular position.

I have had at least 7 large positions that have been multi baggers and every single one attracted loads of criticism, but Thats why they became multi baggers, if everyone agreed with me, the price wouldn't have been low enough to make a multi bagger possible.

If I was forced to make a prediction on which of my current holdings could be a multi bagger, I would say FMG, But as I said these things can take years to play out, but its currently $2.8, but given enough time for the iron ore price to stabilise I can see it being worth 3 times that in 2-3 years,


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## TPI (30 November 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Its more luck than skill for most of us, having 30% of your portfolio in one stock will make the luck factor very apparent...multi-baggers = more luck, i bought SGH in October-2011 for $1.76 now sitting on 264% profit, similar story for IIN, both selections just dumb luck however the great entry's (both significant bottoms) were not total luck.
> 
> Long term convictions for me recently are VED and RIC both stocks i see as long term holds,  dividend payers with some potential to continue dominating their markets and for those markets to grow both locally and internationally.




Good stock picks! I'm also long on VED.


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## TPI (30 November 2014)

Value Collector said:


> I put decent amount into czz because I was confident in was undervalued when it was in the low $2's, you can see I posted about in the czz thread.
> 
> I have always made longterm allocations, and coming out of the Gfc over the last 5 years many have been multi baggers,
> 
> ...




Good points, you do need patience for your investment thesis to play out, and doing so in the face of a stagnant or falling share price is not easy!


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