# Good Trades, Bad Trades: A crude manual system



## frugal.rock (11 June 2020)

First cab off the rank.









Profit
3.7974683544303 % / $ 672.50
(Centrepoint entry)


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## tech/a (11 June 2020)

Don’t understand this simple system
Can elaborate.


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## frugal.rock (11 June 2020)

G'day Mr Duck,
The system is in my head. 
It's based loosely around indicators VSA, DOM, SP, RANGES, COS, FA and general market indicators.
I can't quantify these on paper yet, and haven't put effort into trying, yet.

However, have put a proposition to a professional programmer, which if the proposition is accepted, the hard yards in turning into a coded mechanical and hopefully automated system could begin.


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## frugal.rock (12 June 2020)

Friday.
Noticed on Tuesday and Wednesday nights on the US market, that the S&P500 closed in the red around -0.5%. The Nasdaq closed 0.5% up. (Approximately) 

nasdaq.com has an article stating that the correlation between the S&P500 and the VIX was at a rare point (forget the terms used) not seen since December, apparently.
ASX:XVI (VIX) up 32% today.
$2669 jump of $653.


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## tech/a (13 June 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Friday.
> Noticed on Tuesday and Wednesday nights on the US market, that the S&P500 closed in the red around -0.5%. The Nasdaq closed 0.5% up. (Approximately)
> 
> nasdaq.com has an article stating that the correlation between the S&P500 and the VIX was at a rare point (forget the terms used) not seen since December, apparently.
> ...




Sorry FR
But this just seems like hindsite ramblings?

Did you take a trade?
Is this just musings?


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## frugal.rock (13 June 2020)

Musings, ramblings, mutterings... (following on from the Tuesday & We'd night obs) yes. 
The thread is in the diary section.
Musings re SP500 and Nasdaq based on observations.
I hadn't particularly noticed any great divergence of these before.
They usually travel together generally. (From my pithy observations).
What struck me Tech, is that they both then crashed around -5.6% on Thursday night, followed by our market phart yesterday.
At the time it (Tues/ Wed night obs) didn't mean much and still doesn't, but apparently it may have some significance in pre-empting the phart, or not.
Brokers app is closed for maintenance today, have to look see US market elsewhere.
As for taking a trade, dumped the portfolio due to a refinance application. Needed elsewhere.
Haven't worked out portfolio loss yet but circa 12k.   
A mere flesh wound.


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## frugal.rock (24 June 2020)

Not great trades, but trying to learn lessons good and bad from each and every one.
It highlights timing is of the essence when a stock is moving, something my manual system really can't cope with. First trade was on open and goes from the bottom up.
I now dislike trading like this, but wanted to test my emotions with some smaller outlays. Looking forward to having my mental system coded into something usable that processes faster than me.






At $19.95 per trade for the above, I have since signed up to Selfweath for $9.50 trades. 
F.Rock
PS, this is in the bad trades category.


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## frugal.rock (22 October 2021)

So a few shocking trades of late, however losses kept to a minimum via trade management, and wins outnumber losses, and are greater. No stats though please...

3 month snapshot.
Market has been a sideways grind but managing to keep the chin up by some snappy rotational trading.
Am happy with the discretional approach and performance.




Missed out on profit locking on trades early August and mid Sept' which could've put the portfolio in a much better position than current..
Still kicking myself...


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## Sean K (22 October 2021)

Would be interested in more detail Mr Rock.


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## frugal.rock (23 October 2021)

Sean K said:


> Would be interested in more detail Mr Rock.



What particular detail might you be interested in?


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## frugal.rock (25 October 2021)

A snippet of detail @Sean K

As the title says, crude and manual. Quite a few trades I do are pure opportunistic plays. Right place and right time kind of thing. It requires me to stumble across a perceived opportunity.

A recent one I missed.
VUL was noticed to be finishing up a placement at $13.50
When I noticed this (after the trading halt a week ago lifted), the SP was $12.30
A trade at that price was considered based off the likelihood the SP would raise to the placement price, or very close to it. A potential 9.75% profit for a relatively short timeframe.
A position wasn't available thus I didn't buy, however I did consider a rotation, but didn't dwell on it.




Similar thing with AXE recently.
CR and SPP at $1.45, SP dipped as low as $1.38 (approx), caught it on the way back up at $1.43 however, I'm more into AXE for the longer term though.

The missed VUL trade was made up for though by a quickie a few days later, which netted about the same profit (9.6%) for a 25 minute hold, on a different stock though.
Monies were then put into DEG on Friday, at 1 cent above its CR price as well. (DEG up 3% today.)

I haven't stumbled across too many CR/SPP rolling situational opportunities such as these before. Their probably quite common, just I didn't know about, or find them or the window of opportunity is too diminished/ gone.


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## Sean K (26 October 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I haven't stumbled across too many CR/SPP rolling situational opportunities such as these before. Their probably quite common, just I didn't know about, or find them or the window of opportunity is too diminished/ gone.




Thanks, and interesting plays. I have thought about this type of arbitrage before as logic would say the cr/spp would be a floor and any insto who actually bought at that price would be happy to dip in at a lower price. I've sort of done this with LCL recently, as it dipped below a cr price, but has stayed well below there! lol. But, it sounds like a nice idea and one worth repeating.


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## frugal.rock (26 October 2021)

Sean K said:


> I've sort of done this with LCL recently, as it dipped below a cr price, but has stayed well below there! lol.



Can't win them all eh?

My thoughts of LCL in this regard are instantly of, is there enough consistent volumes being traded?, and, being a golder, POG of late,  has been a bit choppy /unpredictable also. (Appears to be finding some legs now though?)

I don't see it as a consistently reliable strategy and macros need to be supportive by means of a decently decisive trend.
EG, DEG and POG timing currently seem to be marrying up nicely on the daily. (Have posted in DEG thread)

Another thought on the strategy is, the theory that the SP will stay somewhat pegged/tethered to the CR/ SPP price, and one could almost ignore most charting except for a bit of lead in. 
The pegged price to me acts as a centre for a Bollinger stretch scenario. Will be interested to see if LCL comes back. Will have a look at it.
Cheers.


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## frugal.rock (28 October 2021)

Quick and dirty overnight swinger trade on CAD.. profit and some extra kept with residual holding.

...and PIL, a current trade, which could go either way from my .019 entry, but it's a stock I don't mind turning from trade scenario to investee, long hold.
IE; I like it's long term chances based off FA. (Market cap of under $30 mill to me doesn't sound like much shorter term future growth potential has been priced in, yet.)

DYOR


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## frugal.rock (28 October 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> ...and PIL, a current trade, which could go either way from my .019 entry



Partially closed, will hang onto remaining.




Nice mover and shaker today.
A volume high today from 7 months. Not bad.


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## frugal.rock (4 November 2021)

Sorry @debtfree
But a quick rotation was in order...
Now out of LPD completely only to lock in profits. If it runs higher, it's without me for now. I still very much like it's medium to longer term outlook. Short term is an unknown for me at this point.


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## frugal.rock (11 March 2022)

Been a quiet week for me.
Exited NIC before all the activity.
Bought some more PIL at $0.011 which is in the long term basket.
Have been accepting smaller trades and profit margins than I usually go for, as I know if I turn my back and relax, the swing will knock my teef out. 
Considering buys on AEV, PVW,GWR, FME and FFX. 
Not impressed I've missed AEV...


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## peter2 (11 March 2022)

As I mentioned elsewhere, there's still plenty of opportunities for the short term trader. However the follow up may be smaller than we'd like and the reversals quicker than we'd like. Buy, then sell on the first signs of weakness and repeat. The worse thing is getting stuck in a trade as the price falls and bid depth disappears.


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## Sean K (11 March 2022)

peter2 said:


> As I mentioned elsewhere, there's still plenty of opportunities for the short term trader. However the follow up may be smaller than we'd like and the reversals quicker than we'd like. Buy, then sell on the first signs of weakness and repeat. The worse thing is getting stuck in a trade as the price falls and bid depth disappears.




Agree. There are amazing opportunities, but short term trading is fraught with danger at the moment, due to the wild swings. Unless you are on the button during the trading day, it could be nasty. For eg, gold goes up $100, then down $100 in a day. Incredible swing for gold. Then, Nickel....... who knows how that turns out.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 March 2022)

Sean K said:


> Agree. There are amazing opportunities, but short term trading is fraught with danger at the moment, due to the wild swings. Unless you are on the button during the trading day, it could be nasty. For eg, gold goes up $100, then down $100 in a day. Incredible swing for gold. Then, Nickel....... who knows how that turns out.



I often envy my Systematic peers on ASF who can plot an Excel sheet with buys and sells and stops. They add and subtract stocks according to a rules based system. I can only trot along in awe after or beside them.

Not now, in these turbulent times. 

Possibly their systems dictate they turn them off atm. and good luck to them. 

I quite enjoy the present risk in markets.

gg


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## frugal.rock (17 March 2022)

Hasn't been a great week all round, until today. 
Came down with covid Tuesday. 🤒
However, today the best percentage day for this portfolio for quite a while, covid symptoms diminishing.
Hopefully gains can be held. I don't think I've traded this week.
🤔


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## frugal.rock (21 March 2022)

Belated end of week.
Not sure how they work things out, but it seems to lack consistency. (By my approximations, am up ~1% for the week)


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## frugal.rock (28 March 2022)

Last week's results.
2nd week of covid, so wasn't interested in trading. 
Still haven't got my taste back properly and seem to have a permanently partially blocked snoz... 🤧




On the YTD chart, when equity hit the 10% high, I reduced the portfolio by around 1/3. 
On the next high I reduced it down again to around 50% of original. So, the hits weren't anywhere as near as hard as they could've been.

Looking back at some historic trading results, it's pretty clear that a good old "clear the decks" is/can be in order, when at equity highs. A take profit reset.
Probably not a common thought for the upside....


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## frugal.rock (1 April 2022)

Market = XJO = SP ASX200
The week.




Year to date.
Σ 82,513.56


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## frugal.rock (2 April 2022)

Am I on "peak stupid" or somewhere on the "slope of enlightenment"?
Have definitely experienced the "valley of despair", but I think the slopes of peak stupid/enlightenment and the valley are possibly confusing 😋🤔

Some links for me to get back to again.

Add a h to the start of the first link...

ttps://michaelgearon.medium.com/cognitive-biases-dunning-kruger-effect-ea1419038eb6










						3 Cognitive Biases That Alter Your Thinking
					

As much as you may not notice them, biases are ingrained into our decision making from birth. Biases are one of the more interesting phenomena of evolved mental behavior.



					www.pickthebrain.com


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## Ann (3 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Am I on "peak stupid" or somewhere on the "slope of enlightenment"?
> Have definitely experienced the "valley of despair", but I think the slopes of peak stupid/enlightenment and the valley are possibly confusing 😋🤔




I am not sure I agree with the curve as far as my own confidence growth was concerned or how I felt at the times of improvement, mine was more a zig zag curve like trying to solve a multilayer puzzle. I am still treating it as a puzzle to be solved. I never over think puzzles, that is the trick.

However, taking the curve as it stands as it was obviously a researched response, I would say to anyone who is at the last level displayed on the curve perhaps their next step would be to simplify the complication. Identify why it has been made so complicated and pull away the rubble until you see the basics.


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## frugal.rock (14 April 2022)

Have found the brokers charts of the portfolio to be significantly different to my understanding.


frugal.rock said:


> Year to date.
> Σ 82,513.56



Current Σ $100,368.18 
(-$13,000 cash added)

From last posted YTD chart and actual portfolio value figure (above), the portfolio value has increased 5.88% in real terms, where if I use the brokers YTD chart, it shows an increase of 8.41% for this same fortnight.
I have inputted $13k cash into the portfolio in the same period.

As a result, I won't be posting anymore broker supplied "charts".
Will use the 1st April figure 
( 82,513.56 ) from now, and calculating manually.
Will probably end this thread here, unless anyone is really keen to see further results down the road.  
Hope all have a good Easter break.


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## frugal.rock (19 April 2022)

Last post here. The apathy club has disbanded due to lack of interest.

Have worked out the broker is probably using the original portfolio funding base figure of approx $60k,  from my calcs.
Was funded in July 2020.
Broker YTD chart matches my understanding now (or vice versa) and is correct, when using the old base figure...
FWIW, I consider my results ordinary and know I can do better with; a little more effort, an auto scanner and more research on forum on posts by the head honchos.
Life does have a bad habit of throwing spanners though.
Peace out. 🤙✌️


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## divs4ever (19 April 2022)

BUT BUT you are still beating the market 

i think you  have a problem  most traders  have  ( ' i am sure i can do better ' )

 but sure tweak away  , maybe better is possible  

 good luck


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## peter2 (19 April 2022)

I agree with divs a little here. The idea that we can do better is only a wish until we actually start monitoring our behaviour so we can see the aspects that need to improve. Monitoring the end result, equity curves, doesn't give us the details that we really need. 

I know it's hard to look for our mistakes. Not buying when we should, not selling when we should etc. No one is going to check our work in the trading business. We have to do it ourselves if we *really* want to do better. 

@frugal.rock  even though I don't have much evidence I think your trading has improved during the past year. The market doesn't provide consistent results. Sometimes we're on the money and others it's leaving us behind. It'll all work out well in the end if we're consistently applying our trade.


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## divs4ever (20 April 2022)

as a person who doesn't really trade  ( my system is cruder than yours , i betchya )

 one flaw i see , is trying  to be 'good' ( great ) all the time ( i quickly worked out I couldn't make a steady income from trading )

 so some of my picks  go up big-time   sometimes in the first year , sometimes in a few years  , or some like GRR  took over 10 years 

 now one concept of proper trading ( for income ) is to take some profit off the table ( to pay for bills , etc. ) ( and trying to cut short the losing runs )

 it has got to be hard work , dipping into the winnings regularly just to keep the food coming in  , compared to the fund managers who shows you what they can do when all the money is left on the table  for one ( or five or ten ) year 

good luck , any sophisticated trading scheme is not for me ( my internet is too slow/unreliable for a starter )


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## frugal.rock (21 April 2022)

peter2 said:


> Monitoring the end result, equity curves, doesn't give us the details that we really need.



The history of my working life was always one of "the end result".
That was all that mattered to the client. That was all they saw and cared about. Pegs and stakes in nicely, vertical and not mashed up. Nice legible writing on stakes etc. Thanks for coming.
The behind the scenes work stays that way and it's largely all hocus pocus "magic"  to the client.



peter2 said:


> No one is going to check our work in the trading business. We have to do it ourselves if we *really* want to do better.



Checking my own work has been an ingrained "feature" from early in the career.



peter2 said:


> The market doesn't provide consistent results. Sometimes we're on the money and others it's leaving us behind. It'll all work out well in the end if we're consistently applying our trade.



And therein lies the beauty of it, in a nutshell. 
Jigsaw puzzles bore me to death. 
I enjoy the irregularity the market data throws at me. 
If I ever get bored with it, I'd expect to be filthy rich by then.





frugal.rock said:


> Last post here


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