# How many members are jumping ship today?



## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

I sold all my holdings on Fri. Took some small(ish) losses but nothing compared to what it would have been if I'd been in today.

Anyone else selling up?


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## Sean K (17 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I sold all my holdings on Fri. Took some small(ish) losses but nothing compared to what it would have been if I'd been in today.
> 
> Anyone else selling up?



Buying.


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## shaunm (17 December 2007)

Bargain hunting is todays theme.


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## spottygoose (17 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I sold all my holdings on Fri. Took some small(ish) losses but nothing compared to what it would have been if I'd been in today.
> 
> Anyone else selling up?




Buying - however avoiding the specs and focusing on mid-caps/blue chips.


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## yuyry002 (17 December 2007)

kennas said:


> Buying.





me too.got a few choices and still working out which one to buy for 2008.


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## surfingman (17 December 2007)

Sold out of BOW on friday good profit, waiting for further signals to buy back into BOW again...

Plus keeping an eye on some other small CSG plays....


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## Awesomandy (17 December 2007)

It's definitely a buying opportunity at the moment. I'm out of cash though... Christmas shopping... holidays...


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## justjohn (17 December 2007)

4% in two days is a bit tought but riding it out ,topping up on a few at present but as they say ''up by the stairs ,down by the elevator'' how true:chimney:xmastree


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

I've only put on shorts today. We've had two downward gaps off highs that haven't been filled. What does that say? I think we have a little way to go yet. Having said that, I'll be out of my shorts today, and see what happens overnight.

And I've been stopped out of three long trades as well, that are more mid term trades.


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

kennas said:


> Buying.




OK, Seems I'm in the minority (once bitten). Can I ask, what makes you buyers think the drop won't continue? BTW, I'm not arguing, trying to see if there's something I'm missing in regards to where the Market will head tomorrow.

Thanks for your replies


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## Sean K (17 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> OK, Seems I'm in the minority (once bitten). Can I ask, what makes you buyers think the drop won't continue? BTW, I'm not arguing, trying to see if there's something I'm missing in regards to where the Market will head tomorrow.
> 
> Thanks for your replies



Yep, sorry, should have qualified my position. I have no technical trades on at the moment. Holding things I'll be happy to hold for 2 years and any weakness is an opportunity for me. I'm scalping the spi and gold to ordinary effect right now.


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## steven1234 (17 December 2007)

I reckon there are too many people cashed up on the sidelines waiting to jump in.


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## Uncle Festivus (17 December 2007)

FWIW.......-160 pts on the xjo, long @ 6330
Long LGL @ 335

Long KAL @ 19.5 (after ann)

Short term specs


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## Sean K (17 December 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> FWIW.......-160 pts on the xjo, long @ 6330
> Long LGL @ 335
> 
> Long KAL @ 19.5 (after ann)
> ...



I've got a few longs at 6331, looks like it's a descending triangle which I expect to break up a little, unless Asia really throws a spanner in the works. Please don't follow my day trading, I'm crap!!!!


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## lamot1 (17 December 2007)

I for one am with you tronic. I have been selling down since October and plan to spend at least the first six months of '08 watching things (especially the US subprime and credit problems) from the sidelines. Recently I have banked some good profits on BHP, FMG and PDN.

I remain in RIO for the moment on the expectation of an increased bid early in the new year. Also waiting for the 2008 iron ore contract price announcement before selling out of MMX.


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

kennas said:


> I've got a few longs at 6331, looks like it's a descending triangle which I expect to break up a little, unless Asia really throws a spanner in the works. Please don't follow my day trading, I'm crap!!!!




Yeah, I'm long the SPI at 6340 now. Just looking for a 15-20 point move with a tight stop below that previous bottom. Might be time to get out of my shorts for now.


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## adobee (17 December 2007)

I double up with how much money i had in the market on Friday.. so it is expected that this week will just go into free fall.. majority of stock I hold I am happy to sit on for six months or so and have found that if I sell out to avoid small drops 4-8% I miss out getting back in in time for when the run i am waiting for happens.. 

I am wanting to buy CVN but it must be one of the only stocks that hasnt dropped today!!!!


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## daggs (17 December 2007)

Buying/holding.
"Buy when there,s blood on the streets"


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

adobee said:


> I double up with how much money i had in the market on Friday.. so it is expected that this week will just go into free fall.. majority of stock I hold I am happy to sit on for six months or so and have found that if I sell out to avoid small drops 4-8% I miss out getting back in in time for when the run i am waiting for happens..
> 
> I am wanting to buy CVN but it must be one of the only stocks that hasnt dropped today!!!!




Would CTX help with your need for Fuel? Close to yearly lows on a very modest profit downgrade.

PS. I just bought some CTX at 19.40


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

daggs said:


> Buying/holding.
> "Buy when there,s blood on the streets"




How much claret you want? Streets have been pretty red these last few days.


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## JTLP (17 December 2007)

Is there really a forecast for negative days all this week?
Surely the Dow must have some rally in it being so close to Xmas?


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## Real1ty (17 December 2007)

I'm a lot more bearish than what i was a couple of weeks ago.

I sold out all my holdings in MAH and MTN today ( IF only i had of sold MTN at peak ) and also withdrew my Australian Shares Geared Fund.

All the above were very nice profits as i had held for years.

I think we have a long way to go and won't be jumping back in until things become a little clearer, if they do.

Is it just me or is anyone else worried about the Australian Banks putting up their rates?
I believe IF this happens, and it has been hinted at, the Australian market will fall quite a way.
They are not going to put up with the higher cost of money forever.
And if they pass on the higher costs, added with our high inflation and Americas woes, well, it won't be pretty, especially in Aus.

Just my 2 cents


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> I'm a lot more bearish than what i was a couple of weeks ago.
> 
> I sold out all my holdings in MAH and MTN today ( IF only i had of sold MTN at peak ) and also withdrew my Australian Shares Geared Fund.
> 
> ...




Nah it's not just you. I had a similar rant on a property value thread here earlier. It's not a question or IF but WHEN and HOW MUCH. The US is so close to recession it's not funny.

Bumpy times ahead.

(Why oh Why did I just buy CTX LOL)


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## The Mint Man (17 December 2007)

Rest of the week will be interesting, we really need good news from the US. I agree with JTLP's comments, I think the DOW will rally back from here.... having said that I am seriously considering selling out of a couple of my stocks within the next month or so, Im just waiting to see what happens first but I'm ready to do it if need be.
This definitly was not the santa rally I was looking for though!


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## prawn_86 (17 December 2007)

After the rally from the August correction i shifted my holdings to what i am happy to hold, mainly focusing on new or near term producers set for market re-rating when the ann maiden profits (imo, thats the plan anyway).

There are a few other stocks i would love to have but dont have the capital, but im happy just to hold with a 1 - 2 yr outlook on each of my stocks and buy new ones, with the same timeframe, each time i save up enough.


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## JTLP (17 December 2007)

Just pondering a question...if the Dow continues to drop, which areas of the market will be most affected?

I am considering selling most of my stocks but would it be worthwhile (in your own opinions of course ) holding onto something like CVN (my largest holding), or will smaller stocks like these cop a beating as well?

For the record I own:

ANG
BHP
CVI
CVN
FMG
OXR

(A resource man who tried to avoid the Credit Crunch...wow that really worked for me LOL)

Which of these do you guys think will be affected greatest/least?


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## prawn_86 (17 December 2007)

JTLP,

obviously no one here (that i know of) is qualified to give investment advice.

But i think you will find that smaller cap stocks are hit even harder during a correction/volatile market. This is due to the speculators sitting on the side not willing to back things without 'solid' fundamentals.

Hence my post above...

But i think you will find if it doesnt have a positive cashflow (especially if it needs to raise funds, even via a share placement) it may struggle


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## JTLP (17 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> JTLP,
> 
> obviously no one here (that i know of) is qualified to give investment advice.
> 
> ...




Prawn, I did try to avoid this issue by throwing in IN YOUR OWN OPINION with the smiley face. I understand the positions people are in and I respect that. Lets say for the topics sake the affect of the market on those certain players I listed. Thank you =)


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## daggs (17 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> How much claret you want? Streets have been pretty red these last few days.




Cease fire, I,m outta money::ak47:


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Yeah, I'm long the SPI at 6340 now. Just looking for a 15-20 point move with a tight stop below that previous bottom. Might be time to get out of my shorts for now.




Reversed on that stop and now looking for the S3 at 6294.


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

JTLP said:


> Just pondering a question...if the Dow continues to drop, which areas of the market will be most affected?
> 
> I am considering selling most of my stocks but would it be worthwhile (in your own opinions of course ) holding onto something like CVN (my largest holding), or will smaller stocks like these cop a beating as well?
> 
> ...




Personally I'll be looking to short transports. The last time I checked, the biggest short positions were on them... and RIO.


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## The Mint Man (17 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> OK, Seems I'm in the minority (once bitten).



I wouldn't say that... just have a look at the market!!! Were getting smashed, *185 down* ATM.


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## chewy (17 December 2007)

I am holding. FWIW my portfolio is up 1.5% so far today.


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

chewy said:


> I am holding. FWIW my portfolio is up 1.5% so far today.




What are you holding? Puts?


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## coolcricket (17 December 2007)

Holding at the moment. Would like to buy some shares, but cash is mostly already tied up.


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## ithatheekret (17 December 2007)

I'm waiting for Hong Kong to report , there financials are allowed sporadic reporting if I can put it that way ...........

I don't think we've heard enough bad news from there yet and they'd be / are heavily invested here too . They've got a rate cut coming up too , more liquidity ..... but where will it go though ..........

The only thing I have in their favour is that they were the only ones able to buy back all the liquidity they poured into the financial markets in the '97 cash crisis .

The see-saw begins to rock , I still expect Santa and the window dressers , I mean elves , reindeer or whatever ........ bit of a Mardi Gras if you ask me .
More so on the Dow and friends .

It has me wondering whether we will see 6200 tested , been waiting for it , all the expected annual downturns had started , but a couple of stuff ups , have led to rallies ....... or last bull in the ring as use to be the expression .

Spitting distance to 6300 .......

Skippy has just got her head above the the wheat


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## chewy (17 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> What are you holding? Puts?




AQA - was up - just turned flat
CVN - up
GDY - down
MSB - up
TMR - up
TTY - flat

But truth be told I am looking forward to today ending to ease the nerves lol


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## The Mint Man (17 December 2007)

coolcricket said:


> Holding at the moment. Would like to buy some shares, but cash is mostly already tied up.



I hear ya!!! In a perfect world I would have sold out of MQG last week for $82.60 and bought back in at $75.60 today... ahh well still up slightly


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## chewy (17 December 2007)

well that got nastier as the day progresed - ended up 1.5 down for the day after all  at least its better than the 3.4 the market gave up i spose:fan


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## Real1ty (17 December 2007)

chewy said:


> well that got nastier as the day progresed - ended up 1.5 down for the day after all  at least its better than the 3.4 the market gave up i spose:fan




It certainly did


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## coolcricket (17 December 2007)

Ouch, that was a tough day.  
 C'mon the DOW rally.


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## ithatheekret (17 December 2007)

What are the US futures pointing to is next , more red and a miraculous comeback for tonight . Just had CPI which rattled them a tad , but Tuesday has the building number data , any negative news will see red , anything postive or polished upto be will ensure a participation push .

Or will it be more red ? hopefully not scarlet .

Last couple of weeks trading , not many shiny windows yet , all the curtains are drawn . The rate cuts , well the market had forget it will directed at them , but as a saviour for the banks as phase #1 fails . It won't help the homeowner at all . There is still more m/bad news to come out of US and UK financials too .
That will more than likely force the Fed against the grain and move back into disinflationary theory  , whoopsie # .... lost track .

What to whip away deflation , or to tempt hyperinflation , tagging it the lesser evil . Data says we would expect a hike , but US economics have lost the economic plot at a faster growing rate than the money supply CPI , PPI and that of the UK's  .......  ALL AT ONCE  .

So any  bets ? The market thinks a pause , I think the further unfolding in financials will force either at .15 or .25 basis point cut , as a preemptive , to a fall to another 50 basis if chit hits the fan .
Unfortunately the US has a BIG fan , so we'd cop a spray or two.


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## numbercruncher (17 December 2007)

So much for the "decoupling" theory hey


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> So much for the "decoupling" theory hey




I was actually going to post on the other thread that we aren't decoupling, but we are ahead of the curve. The US markets seem to be the only ones not currently living in reality! Might be a long night tonight I think.


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## numbercruncher (17 December 2007)

Yes and Morgan Stanley is scheduled to report results on Wednesday and Bear Stearns on Thursday, is that a nose bleed i feel coming on ?


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## DionM (17 December 2007)

Dammit and blast.  Things were going so well only a month ago.  

Down only a little overall, but that's only thanks to to some massive gains in a few particular stocks offsetting some massive losses in others.

How effing close to Xmas do we have to wait for this santa rally :

Still, I'm staying put.  Looking for oppies to offload a few stocks, but most I am planning to hold onto.  Would love to top up a few actually, but need to sell those few stocks ... but it would be at a loss ... not keen on that course of action as it would selling at a loss for no reason.


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## adobee (17 December 2007)

JTLP said:


> Just pondering a question...if the Dow continues to drop, which areas of the market will be most affected?
> 
> I am considering selling most of my stocks but would it be worthwhile (in your own opinions of course ) holding onto something like CVN (my largest holding), or will smaller stocks like these cop a beating as well?
> 
> ...





I think most of the miners will cop it if the dow continues to drop.. buy resmed.. RMD if you think it will keep dropping the only time it goes up is when the rest of the market is sh*&ting itself..


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## Rainmaker2000 (17 December 2007)

Looks like the storm is upon us the week before Christmas, or is it, statistically this would be very unusual but it is due........

Some stocks got absolutely smashed today......watch all the retirees heading for the dole queue over Centro saying, "but I thought super companies only invested in 'safe' bricks and mortar".....

One of my favs Just Group has been smashed last few days and hope it gets more under water.

Even though I gave back around 5k today, I'm very pleased with my holdings and hope the market burns, burns, burns......cause when the corrections on, nothing is safe

Imagine how much Aussie residential housing went down today.....it would be a lot but its not traded daily of course....


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## shaunm (17 December 2007)

Ouch! What I thought was a good price for my pick ups today went lower.
I'm praying for a bounce very soon.:engel:


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## jovialTrader (17 December 2007)

Buy ...buy ....buy specs ... avoid blue chips


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## prawn_86 (17 December 2007)

And why is that Jovial?

Specs will get harder than blue chips if the market keeps falling


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> And why is that Jovial?
> 
> Specs will get harder than blue chips if the market keeps falling




I second that! What the heck you talking about? Now IS the time to be buying Bluechips. (Just look at SDL over the past week).

Just keep away from miners, property trusts, banks, Energy & Telcos. Apart from that, there's at least 7 stocks to pick from after todays drops


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## Nyden (17 December 2007)

Still holding...*very* painfully - I'm telling you though; I'm slowly being burnt enough to grow bear fur!

Sigh, doesn't look like Santa is coming to the party, does it


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## shinobi346 (17 December 2007)

I'm seriously considering clearing out my stocks of those tied with the US. One I've already sold down to a half a few months ago. and the other one is supposed to be Aust only but they stupidly went and invested in the US. I should have taken the sign then and dumped my shares.


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## nioka (17 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I second that! What the heck you talking about? Now IS the time to be buying Bluechips. (Just look at SDL over the past week).
> 
> Just keep away from miners,



Why keep away from miners? Look at AGM today. It was Santa Claus in disguise, up 38% for the day. Just because Centro over spent and over borrowed will not cause China and India to suddenly shut up shop.


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## vishalt (17 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Why keep away from miners? Look at AGM today. It was Santa Claus in disguise, up 38% for the day. Just because Centro over spent and over borrowed will not cause China and India to suddenly shut up shop.



Agreed!

Thanks for causing the over-reaction and making stocks cheap Centro~

Stocks are getting cheaper and BHP is at an 18% discount from its all time high, this is good .

I bought more but I also shorted the British listed BHP for short-term gains.


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## Who Dares Wins (17 December 2007)

This latest decline has me stumped.

I see no good reason why we were down 200 points today. People talk of recession in the US, but do you really think real estate prices in the states dictate how many new dams are built in China next year, or how many new aircraft they purchase? I don't.

And does anyone out there really think we will _not_ see an increase in the iron ore price next year? So why are iron miners SP going down? Again, no sound reason except panic. Incidentally, was it a RIO report I was reading the other day predicting a massive copper shortage? I've read so many reports lately.

Remember the US economy contributes much less to the global economy than it did say 20 years ago. So, if it faulters the impact to the rest of us should be much less than it was 20 years ago.


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## Nyden (17 December 2007)

Who Dares Wins said:


> This latest decline has me stumped.
> 
> I see no good reason why we were down 200 points today. People talk of recession in the US, but do you really think real estate prices in the states dictate how many new dams are built in China next year, or how many new aircraft they purchase? I don't.
> 
> ...






I do tend to agree about the whole China issue; people are always saying in argument against China though, that the US is a much larger economy than China, in which case it won't manage to make up for the slow down. 

But, this is simply a moronic argument - the US economy is not going to drop to 0, it isn't simply going to stop. People need to live life, people need cars, people need homes, people need power. 

Unfortunately though, these are all long term fundamentals that aren't really going to help the current sentiment


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## chops_a_must (17 December 2007)

Fundamentals don't mean squat. It's sentiment that counts.


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## dhukka (17 December 2007)

Who Dares Wins said:


> This latest decline has me stumped.
> 
> I see no good reason why we were down 200 points today. People talk of recession in the US, but do you really think real estate prices in the states dictate how many new dams are built in China next year, or how many new aircraft they purchase? I don't.
> 
> ...




Why do people insist on applying rationality to such an irrational mechanism such as the market? 

Your last paragraph sounds like a lot of the bull arguments -that is supported by broad generalizations and hope rather than solid evidence. No doubt the US contributes less to world growth but not a lot less. The US is still the main engine. Also consider that Asian economies are more export dependent than ever before so a global growth slowdown will hit them hard.   In fact rather than a decoupling, Nouriel Roubini argues that we will see recoupling.


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## son of baglimit (17 December 2007)

is that the real question ?

how about ... how many bulls have now reluctantly become bears ?

how many traders/investors/1st timers have REALLY read between the lines on what is happening to the world economy, as a result of sub-prime, china's appetite, the price of commodities, the cost of global warming, inflation, interest rates etc etc.

weve had a great run, and now its time to either give some back, or get out and wait for the sign, the flag being waved, the traders having given up, the mums & dads swearing off the market (again), the fancy car leases being closed, the fancy properties being sold, the bonuses disappearing, and only realising THEN its time to get back in.

the signal will be obvious to some. but it will be some time before we see it.


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## adobee (17 December 2007)

Who Dares Wins said:


> This latest decline has me stumped.
> 
> I see no good reason why we were down 200 points today. People talk of recession in the US, but do you really think real estate prices in the states dictate how many new dams are built in China next year, or how many new aircraft they purchase? I don't.
> 
> ...




I was of the assumption that alot of our metals and resources went to India and China where they turn them into cars, toys, house parts and the rest and then get back on the boat bound for the US and Aus and the rest of the world that likes cheap crap.. It isnt all staying in China..


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## numbercruncher (17 December 2007)

Who Dares Wins said:


> Remember the US economy contributes much less to the global economy than it did say 20 years ago. So, if it faulters the impact to the rest of us should be much less than it was 20 years ago.





The US is a 10t consumer economy, China is a 1t consumer economy, decoupling is a theory dreamed up by wildly optimistic people, and besides the "Theory" hasnt even been tested yet


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## Aussie2Aussie (17 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> The US is a 10t consumer economy, China is a 1t consumer economy, decoupling is a theory dreamed up by wildly optimistic people, and besides the "Theory" hasnt even been tested yet




Decoupling, I believe is real but only in the form of a lag and that will show through in the 2nd half of 2008 as it relates to our economy; the US recession and in turn the US stock market will still drag Australian equities down regardless.


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## nioka (17 December 2007)

The number of members jumping ship today is heavily influenced by the "lemming" factor. Take that out of the equasion and it is evident that there has been an over reaction. This is great for brokers and traders. I'll just sit and watch and thanks to AGM I had a good day anyway.


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## wayneL (17 December 2007)

nioka said:


> The number of members jumping ship today is heavily influenced by the "lemming" factor.



The same reason they jumped aboard in the first place hey?


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## Wysiwyg (17 December 2007)

It`s how the game works ... overbought or oversold.My practice is to monitor individual stock movement  and accept that market downturn fears will effect them sometimes.So i didn`t jump but I`ll be in the crowsnest if yer lookin` arhhh arrhhh.


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## Rainmaker2000 (17 December 2007)

I find all this isolating of factors a little perplexing.....just cause Centro overgeared or US is the driver or its not the driver of China and India......

The fact is: the cost of debt is going up all around the world........that is just bad news for stocks a)stocks use debt to lower cost of capital b) interest rate rises make investments other than stocks more desirable......

People can yell at the sky as much as they want....right now the market is reprising risk and this is only the beginning...........I don't think the bellhops have given up their day trading quite yet....

For example, check out the portfolios people on this site have admitted to owning........it seems to me that an amazing proportion of them are speaking of their incredible gains with the exercise of very little investment thought.....people are hooked and its going to be a wild ride


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## theasxgorilla (17 December 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> The US is a 10t consumer economy, China is a 1t consumer economy, decoupling is a theory dreamed up by wildly optimistic people, and besides the "Theory" hasnt even been tested yet




I agree with this but only to the extent that decoupling suggests an absolute solution.  At the opposite extreme to say that a 1T consumer market in China will have sweet stuff all of an impact might sound like people just trying to be a bear for the sake of being a bear.  Beats talking about how things might just turn out okay for once.


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## Real1ty (17 December 2007)

nioka said:


> The number of members jumping ship today is heavily influenced by the "lemming" factor. Take that out of the equasion and it is evident that there has been an over reaction. This is great for brokers and traders. I'll just sit and watch and thanks to AGM I had a good day anyway.




An over reaction?

Lemmings?

Interesting.

I can't speak for others but i myself took a lot of my profits today as i have formed my opinion based on a lot of the information i have read and my experience from years of trading.

An over reaction?
Where did you actually expect the market to be at the close today?

It was lower than i expected but i certainly expected it to have a very bad day with more to come.

If i am right in my views there will be many more "over reactions" to come.

What do you think will happen to the Australian market *IF* the Australian banks hit us with a News Years Gift of a rate hike?


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## Bushman (17 December 2007)

wayneL said:


> The same reason they jumped aboard in the first place hey?




Not sure who Ambrose Evans is but he is right - credit is the fundemental that lies at the base of the pyramid.

The speed with which Centro unravelled today was staggering. Believe me...up to last Thursday it was business as usual. The underlying property business is sound. But 'all of a sudden' not a single bank will lend to a ASX50 company. Wrong deal at the wrong time and now it looks like the game is up. Cash is king and many companies were doing fat deals up until July. 

This has seriously spooked me I must say (as first hand experience often does). There are guys at work who lost a hell of a lot today in the blink of an eye. Managment had the great idea to offer margin loans against the employee share plan. Luckily I declined but some of my mates are hurting and they have kids. Merry f**ken Christmas brought to you by the US of A. 

So when you have lots of debt on the balance sheet, fundamentals are an illusion at the moment. Bye bye, baby. Tread carefully guys.  

I sold 25% awhile ago. I have hung on to a few where the 'fundamentals' are good but that should still be the case in 6 months or however long it takes for this to be supported again by a functioning credit market. So I might exit a few more hands over the next few weeks. 

Replace Centro with Merril Lynch or Citi Group, and the music will stop playing. Then today will feel like a tea party.


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## tronic72 (17 December 2007)

son of baglimit said:


> is that the real question ?
> 
> how about ... how many bulls have now reluctantly become bears ?
> 
> ...





Um yeah. It is. Why else would I have asked it??

I'm not a Bear or a Bull. I think sticking to one or the other is an recipe for failure. The Market is and has been like this for the last year. Great ups and big downs. I think in this climate Bear & Bull analogies are much less relevant.

my 2c


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## theasxgorilla (17 December 2007)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> People can yell at the sky as much as they want....right now the market is reprising risk and this is only the beginning...........I don't think the bellhops have given up their day trading quite yet....




It's a long way from this.  I'd even go so far as to say that people are almost used to the volatility.  What doesn't kill you might not actually make you stronger but it probably makes you think you are.  Today's fall marked a lower high, althought not on a weekly chart based on closing prices.  THAT I'd like to see, watch Friday's close for confirmation that this isn't another tail.  If it's another tail then I expect the 'no worries' outlook to continue a bit longer still.


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## tronic72 (18 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> An over reaction?
> 
> Lemmings?
> 
> ...




Couldn't agree more. I for one don't jump on or off a "stock ship" without doing my homework. The Market was due a correction and I think this one could continue for a few more days. 

I think we may be in for a much bumpier ride. 

Centro controls 13 billion worth of property. If they can't get some quick sales by February they will be stuffed. Even if they do it "may" be at fire-sale prices which will murder their bottom line for years to come. One positive could be for some of the more cashed up competitors who could pick up some bargain. If companies like MAQ and AFG weren't so hard to analyse the Market would have a better idea of how much "funny money" these companies have tied up. As they stand at the moment, we only find out when the $hit starts to bash into the Air conditioner.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

> Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures dropped after Citigroup Inc. cut its rating on nine U.S. banks on *expectations of bigger credit-market losses*.
> 
> Bank of America Corp., Wachovia Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. led declines after Citigroup said financial companies face an increasingly difficult environment




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anXKbWHsXtHc&refer=home


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> An over reaction?
> 
> Lemmings?
> 
> ...



 My policy is to ignore where "THE MARKET" is to a great extent. I concentrate where each individual share is. That is why I had a good day yesterday. I have been placing myself in a position where the shares I have are expected to perform well on average regardless of the market. Of course they do better if the market advances but I select them for potential. AGM was good yesterday but if you read the AGM thread you will see I have been saying that for some time now and I had the patience to wait. Anyone who cashed it out a day or so ago because they anticipated a market downturn would have been very unhappy.


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## Real1ty (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> My policy is to ignore where "THE MARKET" is to a great extent. I concentrate where each individual share is. That is why I had a good day yesterday. I have been placing myself in a position where the shares I have are expected to perform well on average regardless of the market. Of course they do better if the market advances but I select them for potential. AGM was good yesterday but if you read the AGM thread you will see I have been saying that for some time now and I had the patience to wait. Anyone who cashed it out a day or so ago because they anticipated a market downturn would have been very unhappy.




I didn't read the AGM thread but the reason that AGM did well yesterday was due to a takeover bid by ZFX.

That is why you had a good day yesterday.

I am not doubting your stock picking ability nor your right to trade your shares how you see fit.

I was merely responding to your claims that "members" were lemmings and that it was an over reaction.

I would suggest that many have made an informed decision based on what they believe is in store for us.

Right or wrong, time will tell.


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

Real1ty said:


> I didn't read the AGM thread but the reason that AGM did well yesterday was due to a takeover bid by ZFX.
> 
> That is why you had a good day yesterday.




All Zinifex did was show a value for AGM. That value is still below the true value of AGM in my opinion. That value only matters to traders or sellers, to investors the days price doesn't matter.


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## insider (19 December 2007)

Is anybody considering this to be a good day to jump the ship?


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## DionM (19 December 2007)

insider said:


> Is anybody considering this to be a good day to jump the ship?




Why?  Because of the partial recovery in some stocks?

I am taking the opportunity to offload some of my holdings, but only a small amount.  They're stocks I had intended to offload anyway, just doing it a little sooner and with less or zero profit (but never at a loss); so I can free up cash for some bargain hunting.


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## surfingman (19 December 2007)

I am looking for bargains, but volume is too low for my liking at the moment... 

Watching attentively...


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## insider (19 December 2007)

DionM said:


> Why?  Because of the partial recovery in some stocks?
> 
> I am taking the opportunity to offload some of my holdings, but only a small amount.  They're stocks I had intended to offload anyway, just doing it a little sooner and with less or zero profit (but never at a loss); so I can free up cash for some bargain hunting.




I suppose you're taking the current situation lightly... how much further do you think the XAO will go down?


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## DionM (19 December 2007)

insider said:


> I suppose you're taking the current situation lightly... how much further do you think the XAO will go down?




No, I'm not taking it lightly, overall I'm in the red.

Am I worried about the XAO?  Yes.  

However I'm more of a fundamentalist, and also hold for long.  I buy into companies because I like their performance, and sell if I don't like their performance or I want to trim my portfolio.  SP obviously plays a factor, but it's not the only factor.  Of course I get upset when SPs fall ... but I get annoyed mostly because I could have bought in cheaper, not because of a fall in value of the SP.  Majority of my holdings are in dividend-paying stocks, so I get the same return (if I don't, then I sell).  The next largest group are those like NMS, AOE etc - emerging companies with a solid footing (IMHO).  And way down the bottom are speccies ... and I am waiting patiently to get rid of them ... many were gambles I shouldn't have made, but I know better now.

So it's really only that last group - the speccies - that SP falls worry me the most.


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