# Anyone buying banks yet?



## lukeamac (10 May 2017)

Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.

Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.

Cheers Luke


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## Quant (10 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.
> 
> Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.
> 
> Cheers Luke



I think banks got a ways to go before I be buying em , I'm just guessing at this stage , but my ' man ' will be sending me some figures later today , but id suggest an approx 3-5% hit to earnings


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## lukeamac (10 May 2017)

ANZ specifically down 12% in recent times, have to be finding some opportunity here soon surely?


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## lukeamac (10 May 2017)

Quant said:


> I think banks got a ways to go before I be buying em , I'm just guessing at this stage , but my ' man ' will be sending me some figures later today , but id suggest an approx 3-5% hit to earnings




Factored in by now though isn't it?


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## Quant (10 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> Factored in by now though isn't it?



well buy away then , not sure how its factored myself given budget was only last night but carry on , you seem convinced  ...


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## lukeamac (10 May 2017)

Quant said:


> well buy away then , not sure how its factored myself given budget was only last night but carry on , you seem convinced  ...




Relax, discussion is how we, mainly I learn. That levy was speculated yesterday before the budget though which was the reason there was big wipe off yesterday?


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## Roller_1 (10 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> Relax, discussion is how we, mainly I learn. That levy was speculated yesterday before the budget though which was the reason there was big wipe off yesterday?



Agree that the big banks/ instos would have known about the levy in the budget. Probably why they sold off yesterday then all the retail guys had a panic sell this morning but seems to be bouncing back in the short term. Good for mean reversion guys like myself


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## lukeamac (10 May 2017)

Roller_1 said:


> Agree that the big banks/ instos would have known about the levy in the budget. Probably why they sold off yesterday then all the retail guys had a panic sell this morning but seems to be bouncing back in the short term. Good for mean reversion guys like myself




Thanks, appreciate some thinking behind the concept.


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## Roller_1 (10 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> Thanks, appreciate some thinking behind the concept.



Some fundamental guys would be able to elaborate i'm sure


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## skc (10 May 2017)

Quant said:


> well buy away then , not sure how its factored myself given budget was only last night but carry on , you seem convinced  ...






skc said:


> Sell the rumour buy the fact... now that the transaction tax has been announced, it wouldn't surprise me if banks are flat or even green tomorrow. The tax is in essence an invitation for the banks to raise their interest rate for borrowers independent of the RBA. So that's why we are seeing the $AUD falling (as prospect of RBA raising rates is diminished). You'd also expect the regional banks might gain some market share as a result. So there are some of the thesis to build trades around tomorrow.




After opening down 1.5-2%, banks are now well off their lows with ANZ, NAB and CBA close to flat (it's 11:40am). Regional banks are up 3-4%.

Plan the trade, trade the plan. Closed ~2/3 of the positions now. It may or may not carry on this afternoon but the easier bit of the trade is done.


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## lukeamac (10 May 2017)

skc said:


> After opening down 1.5-2%, banks are now well off their lows with ANZ, NAB and CBA close to flat (it's 11:40am). Regional banks are up 3-4%.
> 
> Plan the trade, trade the plan. Closed ~2/3 of the positions now. It may or may not carry on this afternoon but the easier bit of the trade is done.




So I was on the right path here then? Bit late to the party but my thinking was along the right lines?


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## Toyota Lexcen (10 May 2017)

the big4 are well undervalued, 

in the competitive market they are still going okay, the problem with aus shares/businesses is they can't takeover anybody and they are regulated too heavily, way too heavily

at the moment we have 4 banks all with the same interest rates,


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## ianna (11 May 2017)

For what it's worth I sold ANZ in January at 31 and a bit and bought back in yesterday at 28.75.  5.5% fully franked.  Looked inviting but will be keeping a close eye on SP.


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## lukeamac (11 May 2017)

ianna said:


> For what it's worth I sold ANZ in January at 31 and a bit and bought back in yesterday at 28.75.  5.5% fully franked.  Looked inviting but will be keeping a close eye on SP.




What's SP? See this used everywhere


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## SuperGlue (11 May 2017)

Bang on this bank.
The cheapest bank.
If you put money in this bank.
You might go bankrupt.
If it doesn't go bankrupt.
You'll be on their dividend bank-roll.

Beware the Brexit.
Get ready to exit.

Beware the fluctuating currency.
Buy "CYB" if you fancy.

Don't know company fundamentals.
Buy "CYB" if you are mental.

Cheapest bank around town
Buy "CYB" if you are mentally sound.

Please do your own research.
Easiest is Google search.

Loss can be brisk.
So buy at you own risk.


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## The Bear (11 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> What's SP? See this used everywhere



Share Price or Stock Price I'm guessing.


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## OmegaTrader (11 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.
> 
> Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.
> 
> Cheers Luke



I remember I thought oh yeah Asx will open down due to big banks etc etc.

Yesterday I think the market when up. From memory the big four were down about .5% when I looked at it and the competition BOQ, Bendigo and adelaide etc were up about .5% or so. Was part of that due to the news. Probably IDK. What will the long term impact be of hitting IDK. Will it come into law or be repealed IDK. Will the banks still be psudeo backed by the government fi the **** hits the fan. Probably IDK

Look into the fundamentals for yourself and Do your own research. For value the holding period would be years and years.

That is all I know as a newbie.


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## frosty (12 May 2017)

most banks are also trading or will trading ex-dividend around this time. this also will effect SP


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## Quant (12 May 2017)

All I will add to buying banks mid May is that its a rare thing for June XFJ to make a HL than MAY , as a swing trade you will do better to wait till june swing low more times than not . for those short term trading banks I'm sure you can find a reason to buy a few times a week but I am referring to buying banks in regards to a multi week hold  . I might be wrong this time but i'd suggest the odds of that are slim to none .... carry on

Banks have a lot more headwinds than they did 6 weeks ago ( APRA and budget levy ) and that is weighing on outlook and I would suggest will continue to


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## lukeamac (13 May 2017)

Quant said:


> All I will add to buying banks mid May is that its a rare thing for June XFJ to make a HL than MAY , as a swing trade you will do better to wait till june swing low more times than not . for those short term trading banks I'm sure you can find a reason to buy a few times a week but I am referring to buying banks in regards to a multi week hold  . I might be wrong this time but i'd suggest the odds of that are slim to none .... carry on
> 
> Banks have a lot more headwinds than they did 6 weeks ago ( APRA and budget levy ) and that is weighing on outlook and I would suggest will continue to




After timing if I've ever seen it. In and out already for profit on 5 banks. Thanks though for actually adding something constructive, albeit after the event.


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## Quant (13 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> After timing if I've ever seen it. In and out already for profit on 5 banks. Thanks though for actually adding something constructive, albeit after the event.



I reckon your all wind , if your daytrading what the hell has fundamental news got with anything . I say you didn't trade these 5 banks at all  . Easy to prove me wrong   .


"" 
Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them. ""


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## rb250660 (13 May 2017)

Let's see the confirmation notes to prove Quant right or wrong...


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## lukeamac (13 May 2017)

It's *you're 

I don't need to prove anything to anyone. Still organising a cheaper broker as all I had was E-Trade but since researching here found out about IN etc which are cheaper.

In the meantime just dipped my toe in with Plus500 http://imgur.com/a/NgQoz

Cheers Luke


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## Quant (13 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> It's *you're
> 
> I don't need to prove anything to anyone. Still organising a cheaper broker as all I had was E-Trade but since researching here found out about IN etc which are cheaper.
> 
> ...



Ok Kudos you did trade it so I was wrong there although your broker made as much money as you did so I'm a little perplexed why the hyperbole  , anyway the point I was making is your original post was along the lines of a position trade not a 2 hour daytrade  , I can tell you now news is next to useless intra trading banks . Your green-ness is evident  , I suggest you look at trading spi/xjo/aus200 intraday , way more bang for buck ... good luck


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## lukeamac (13 May 2017)

Quant said:


> Ok Kudos you did trade it so I was wrong there although your broker made as much money as you did so I'm a little perplexed why the hyperbole  , anyway the point I was making is your original post was along the lines of a position trade not a 2 hour daytrade  , I can tell you now news is next to useless intra trading banks . Your green-ness is evident  , I suggest you look at trading spi/xjo/aus200 intraday , way more bang for buck ... good luck




Cheers for the suggestion will look into it. All new to me, but am having a crack, sure my jargon isn't spot on yet either.


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## IrishDigger (14 May 2017)

I hold 6 different LIC's, all of whom hold the big banks plus a couple of regionals and I will leave it up to them as to what they do with their respective bank stocks.


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## Quant (18 May 2017)

And here we are a few days later  , not looking that rosy .




	

		
			
		

		
	
 \


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## DwayneBuzzell (19 May 2017)

lukeamac said:


> Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.
> 
> Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.
> 
> Cheers Luke



Landing on the bulls market is not favorable for me.Looking for more fundamental factors to see a strong bullish rally in the market.But things might shot up at any time in the market.


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## Quant (22 May 2017)

Credit ratings agency Standard & Poors has cut the ratings of 23 Australian financial institutions

Headwinds continue to build



https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...operty-market-risk-2017-5#SGIsp7L4S5Xzbytj.99


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## WRiley (26 May 2017)

Headwinds allow us to go in cheap,... no headwinds means no chance to buy at wonderful prices,... only thing is : how to catch the near-bottom,....


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## Porper (26 May 2017)

It doesn't look great for the Banking Sector to me. There is an outside chance of heading up to all-time highs before the next major leg down but unlikely. The corrective pattern higher looks to have terminated into wave (B).

I am short BEN.


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## Quant (29 May 2017)

Now below early feb swing lows ... headwinds  continue


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## Quant (29 May 2017)

given the XFJ to XJO ratio absolutely no surprise in rotation out of banks , the ' news ' may have accelerated it but it was going to happen regardless


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## Quant (8 June 2017)

Basel 4 


http://www.afr.com/business/banking...gn_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter


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## Quant (12 July 2017)

Watch this space , I feel the swing low on banks during 2017 is still a way of . CR would seem imminent

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...r/news-story/c841235eafda5eddd1d45d31ba6ef4ba


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## luutzu (13 July 2017)

I'd probably stay the heck away from banks until after the coming crash.


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## WRiley (21 July 2017)

The 10-year once crash ??


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## luutzu (21 July 2017)

WRiley said:


> The 10-year once crash ??




Could be a once in a century crash. At least for Australia anyway.

Property is going to be corrected by 50% I reckon. Maybe even more.

Went with my dad a couple of days ago to Austral to look at some timber slabs. It's a little over an hour's drive from Sydney's CBD, about half an hour from where properties are selling for an average of $800k to $1.2m for a run down 80 year old cladding.

Half an hour away, the place is practically empty. Yet somehow we think that land in Australia is so scarce we deserved to be the world's second most expensive property market - behind Hong Kong.


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## Mr ABC (30 May 2018)

I’m a fairly long term buy and hold guy.

Case for banks:
- Oligopoly market structure. 
- Franking credits
- DRP reinvestment option
- High yield 
- To big to fail
- Good substitutes for direct property exposure and possible cash deposit alternative. 
- Few other options on the all ords/ marrow market options. 
- Historically low price 

Case against:
- Subject to high degree of reputational risk
- Dividend may not be sustainable in a property market crash event
- Structuraly exposed sector. Technology may disrupt. Not much product innovation, shedding business units
- Look like a value trap. 
- Effectively government controlled via regulation. 

As the banks dip in price, so goes the average stock portfolio down as they tend to be weighted heavily towards banks. I think risk control through exposure and position sizing in ones portfolio is prudent. 

Using the DRP may help increase the number of holding units and offset capital loss. In the past this has helped me zag more on a rebound in share prices.


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## Knobby22 (30 May 2018)

Mr ABC said:


> I’m a fairly long term buy and hold guy.
> 
> Case for banks:
> - Oligopoly market structure.
> ...



I think technology disruption by organisations such as Google is likely. I only own a small amount of one bank and that's Bendigo Bank as it has the possibility to grow faster than the big banks as technology costs fall.


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## greggles (22 June 2018)

Is the bottom finally in for the Big 4 banks? They've all had quite a bounce since last week.


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## luutzu (22 June 2018)

greggles said:


> Is the bottom finally in for the Big 4 banks? They've all had quite a bounce since last week.
> 
> View attachment 87913
> 
> ...




Might be safer to stay away from the banks for a while I reckon.

The Royal Commission; the coming property nightmare... loads of bad debt.


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## Mr ABC (22 June 2018)

luutzu said:


> ...
> 
> The Royal Commission; the coming property nightmare... loads of bad debt.




These are already being factored in the current share price which is attractive on a fundamental valuation. 

Given our market is so narrow, it’s more about how we manage exposure to the big 4.


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## luutzu (22 June 2018)

Mr ABC said:


> These are already being factored in the current share price which is attractive on a fundamental valuation.
> 
> Given our market is so narrow, it’s more about how we manage exposure to the big 4.




I don't know if it's factored in or not. I'm willing to bet the market will not know either when the banks report their mortgage delinquency numbers and such.

But yea, that's as far as I go with market timing. If people see value in bank stocks now then of course by all means.


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## sptrawler (22 June 2018)

luutzu said:


> Might be safer to stay away from the banks for a while I reckon.
> 
> The Royal Commission; the coming property nightmare... loads of bad debt.




Yes I think you're right, the Government wasted their time putting a tax on them, they'll get nothing out of that.
Probably a good time to sell.
Do you want to do an off market transfer? and save the brokerage?


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## luutzu (22 June 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Yes I think you're right, the Government wasted their time putting a tax on them, they'll get nothing out of that.
> Probably a good time to sell.
> Do you want to do an off market transfer? and save the brokerage?




I sold out of CBA about two years ago. Also sold out of QBE a year before that. 

But then I never really understand banking and insurance anyway. 

All I know is that any one that's been lending to OZ property investors will most likely call Canberra for a bailout soon enough.


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## sptrawler (23 June 2018)

luutzu said:


> I sold out of CBA about two years ago. Also sold out of QBE a year before that.
> 
> But then I never really understand banking and insurance anyway.
> 
> All I know is that any one that's been lending to OZ property investors will most likely call Canberra for a bailout soon enough.



Not while you have 400,000/ PA increase in population, and both sides of politics, pushing population growth, albeit in different ways.
Are you assuming that, everyone that can't afford their mortgage, won't be able to find a buyer?
Or that if prices fall, everyone that has a mortgage has to sell, or can't continue their payments?
Or are you listening to the white noise?


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## luutzu (23 June 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Not while you have 400,000/ PA increase in population, and both sides of politics, pushing population growth, albeit in different ways.
> Are you assuming that, everyone that can't afford their mortgage, won't be able to find a buyer?
> Or that if prices fall, everyone that has a mortgage has to sell, or can't continue their payments?
> Or are you listening to the white noise?




Does that 400K p.a. population growth include adults, married people only? 

But regardless, that's assuming a need or a want is a demand. It's not. Not in an economic sense.

Real demand needs cash to back it up. Otherwise it's just a dream. 

i.e. we all want a few houses don't we? One for ourselves, one for investment income; one each for the kids? A summer house by the ocean? 

Demand for that is everywhere... needs cash to make it a proper demand though.

------------

Well, property will eventually have to come down to level where people can afford it. If they can't afford a $1M house, they'll either rent or share or go homeless. 

And if enough of them can't afford it.. lost of a job, interest rate hike, cost of living hike, kids and accidents. Then either the investor will have to leave it empty, pay the interest like they don't care... or lower their prices and cut their lost. 

If enough people are making loses, the bank will either have to extend the term or take some of the lost or ask for a bailout while they break a few knee caps.


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## sptrawler (23 June 2018)

luutzu said:


> Does that 400K p.a. population growth include adults, married people only?
> 
> But regardless, that's assuming a need or a want is a demand. It's not. Not in an economic sense.
> 
> ...




It would be really nice if capitalism worked that way, but from what I've seen it doesn't.

There will be a drop, and those over extended will have to sell, those who aren't won't and those who own the property don't care.

Over here in the West, there has been a huge drop over the last 3 years, but it hasn't caused a crisis.
Maybe it will in Sydney, but I wouldn't bank on it, prices will drop people will upgrade and others will join the market.
Just my opinion.


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## Triathlete (23 June 2018)

greggles said:


> Is the bottom finally in for the Big 4 banks? They've all had quite a bounce since last week




While your daily chart on CBA shows a bounce in price the longer term monthly chart is still technically in a downtrend...same with the weekly chart....

I would look at it coming back as far as  $74.94 and even $76.76 then reversing and heading down once again......


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## PZ99 (9 October 2018)

Anyone diving in? I'm going with NAB for starters


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

PZ99 said:


> Anyone diving in? I'm going with NAB for starters



They could still have a way to go, if the Royal Commission, gives some nasty directives. Long term I think they will be fine, the Government isn't going to shoot its feet off. I already am heavily weighted to the banks, so I will try and do a bit of bottom picking.


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## PZ99 (9 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> They could still have a way to go, if the Royal Commission, gives some nasty directives. Long term I think they will be fine, the Government isn't going to shoot its feet off. I already am heavily weighted to the banks, so I will try and do a bit of bottom picking.



Happily I'm not too concerned about the Royal Commission. It's a blip on the radar the banks actually built themselves. I took a small position and will average down so it's all good 

NAB divvies are almost 10% a year including the franking credits at this current price.


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## willy1111 (9 October 2018)

PZ99 said:


> NAB divvies are almost 10% a year including the franking credits at this current price.




Last time the grossed up yield was that good was in the depths of GFC was it not. Quite a bit.of growth rebounded from there.

Franking credits may be hit hard by Shorten, maybe quite a few are waiting for the election before diving in.


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## So_Cynical (10 October 2018)

willy1111 said:


> Franking credits may be hit hard by Shorten, maybe quite a few are waiting for the election before diving in.




Its mostly SMSF's affected by the new franking credits thing, what will those people do? whats the alternative? they will mostly cop it sweet and get a 8% yield instead of 9.5


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## dutchie (10 October 2018)

ANZ at a critical point today....



(Elliot wave symmetrical triangle.)


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## Porper (10 October 2018)

dutchie said:


> ANZ at a critical point today....
> 
> View attachment 89673
> 
> (Elliot wave symmetrical triangle.)




I have been waiting patiently for these consolidation patterns to complete. However, those patterns are failing. WBC has already broken down out of the Descending triangle. Others are close to doing the same. If this transpires then zigzags are going to unfold which offer several more months of weakness.


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## Toyota Lexcen (10 October 2018)

they will have to start cutting dividends

once again the average shareholder will be the biggest loser


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## HelloU (10 October 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> they will have to start cutting dividends
> 
> once again the average shareholder will be the biggest loser



and that statement, to me, is the game right now.

xtra govt tax thing, fines/cash back to customers etc ......
nobody will really know the value until report time rolls around ......
that is the share market game ....


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 October 2018)

The banks are stuffed. 

Buy CBA at anything under $40. 

Take out yer dead. 

gg


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## MarketMatters (10 October 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Its mostly SMSF's affected by the new franking credits thing, what will those people do? whats the alternative? they will mostly cop it sweet and get a 8% yield instead of 9.5



Pensioners are the losers here (super pensions) and low income earners where they can't offset the credits against any taxable income. There is a belief that property trusts may see some interest due to their unfranked dividends however given the complacency of investors it is unlikely to be massive.


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## HelloU (10 October 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The banks are stuffed.
> 
> Buy CBA at anything under $40.
> 
> ...



but at $40 what yield are you sorta expecting? I mean, at that do you see 6% grossed up - or more or less?  or is that not part of $40? (capital gain thought only?)


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## dutchie (10 October 2018)

dutchie said:


> ANZ at a critical point today....
> 
> View attachment 89673
> 
> (Elliot wave symmetrical triangle.)




ANZ traded below the support line today, but closed above it on above average volume (hanging in there?).
Failure of this pattern will be below $26.07 (i.e. below CC).


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 October 2018)

HelloU said:


> but at $40 what yield are you sorta expecting? I mean, at that do you see 6% grossed up - or more or less?  or is that not part of $40? (capital gain thought only?)




Yield changes with Capital Value.

CBA is a dead dog which will fall on charts with lower highs and lower lows. 

I have been in conversation via email with Matt Comyn CEO of CBA and he is concerned.

He has assured me he will get back to me and I will advise ASF Members when he does. 

He sounded if not disgruntled with his bank's performance, certainly gruntled. 

He has kindly through some malfunction added his iPhone number which I am happy to share with ASF members for a social fee of $1001.

Cash

gg


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## sptrawler (10 October 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yield changes with Capital Value.
> 
> CBA is a dead dog which will fall on charts with lower highs and lower lows.
> 
> ...




GG We are fortunate that we only have four major banks, they control the Countries money flow, so it is quite easy to control them through regulation.
The Australian Governments know this, so it is a speed bump in the economy, it isn't a multi car pile up.
Imagine if there were four hundred banks out there, running amok, that's what happened in the U.S.


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## Mr Bear (10 October 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yield changes with Capital Value.
> 
> CBA is a dead dog which will fall on charts with lower highs and lower lows.
> 
> ...



I’ll give his email and mobile number away for free to anyone who will post the content back on ASF.. interesting how the person heading the division most at fault for CBA’s misconduct got promoted to CEO.. smart guy but another executive thief who doesn’t give a $hit about CBA’s customers. See how he goes following on from the flop  Ian Narev.. in any case if you resort to investing in Australia’s banks you clearly lack imagination and your returns will be punished accordingly..


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## sptrawler (11 October 2018)

Mr Bear said:


> I’ll give his email and mobile number away for free to anyone who will post the content back on ASF.. interesting how the person heading the division most at fault for CBA’s misconduct got promoted to CEO.. smart guy but another executive thief who doesn’t give a $hit about CBA’s customers. See how he goes following on from the flop  Ian Narev.. in any case if you resort to investing in Australia’s banks you clearly lack imagination and your returns will be punished accordingly..




So what would you be switching to?
What dividend play would you be recommending?
Or what capital gain play would you be recomending?
For those who derive an income from investment.


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## luutzu (11 October 2018)

I'd stay away from the banks until the dust from the coming property collapse settles.


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## MarketMatters (11 October 2018)

The big 4 banks will be very attractive buying shortly. Much of the price contraction has been built in following the RC and yes there could be some further downside possible following results. Also IF property values decline as severely as many rear vision experts suggest then I would suspect that less property will come to the market resulting in a boost to renovations like in previous property corrections whilst the excess supply of new construction meets existing demand at an affordable price. That said the eastern seaboard has the largest hangover to go through as the foreign investor has significantly fallen away. As of a few months ago Chinese investment had fallen over half its peak to $15b according to FIRB. Interesting times!


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## Porper (23 October 2018)

The large bullish triangles in the banks have disintegrated. A more typical zigzag is the next best scenario which allows for a move down to the lower target on the chart. NAB is the only one of the big four where price has remained above the lower trend line of the triangle.

Sentiment on the banks is nearing extreme levels (negative) which is a great contrarian indicator as well. Patterns need to prove before I buy though.


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## notting (23 October 2018)

When the election is called,
And when it becomes clear that labor is a shoe in.
That's the day.


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## MarketMatters (24 October 2018)




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## Darc Knight (24 October 2018)

I was reading a report today that claimed SMSFs were moving away from the ASX20.


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## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I was reading a report today that claimed SMSFs were moving away from the ASX20.



My guess would be that they are very exposed to the banks, also to get a decent retirement income you had to be all in, with the $1.6m pension cap.
The banking Royal Commission and subsequent drop of 20-25% in the banks share price, will have seen a lot of SMSF capital value drop, many will be bailing out to retain capital. IMO
There is no point in having shares without franking credits, when you can get bank interest and protect the capital. Just my guess.
But I did mention this could happen, with silly Billy's franking credit brain fart, I'm going to need a new pair of slippers.


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## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

Porper said:


> . NAB is the only one of the big four where price has remained above the lower trend line of the triangle.




Probably because they haven't gone full year results and ex dividend.


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## Ellen Green (24 October 2018)

I noticed that NAB has an ongoing P/E of 13.43, which is pretty low.


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## luutzu (25 October 2018)

Ellen Green said:


> I noticed that NAB has an ongoing P/E of 13.43, which is pretty low.




Might not be low if future earnings dive, property portfolio going to heck needing a dilutive cap raising.


----------



## basilio (25 October 2018)

It will be interesting to see how the banks are faring with the collapsing property market and slowdown in house purchases. The last eight months has been poor and the outlook is not getting better.

I wouldn't be counting on profits and dividends holding up.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (25 October 2018)

The RC will recommend criminal charges for executives, board members etc

APRA has done a lot to control the banks (heavy lifting)

Just remediation, profits and dividends to finalise


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (13 November 2018)

judge tore up WBC & ASIC's agreement. 

claims WBC can assess income in all manner of ways.

going to be interesting to watch the outcome of the court cases from the RC etc and the bank shares prices over next 6months


----------



## sptrawler (13 November 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> judge tore up WBC & ASIC's agreement.
> 
> claims WBC can assess income in all manner of ways.
> 
> going to be interesting to watch the outcome of the court cases from the RC etc and the bank shares prices over next 6months



Yes, it could be another one of them once in a lifetime events, yet again.


----------



## MarketMatters (19 November 2018)

CEO's and Execs front the RC today. 'No more apologies' says Rowena Orr. She's after solutions!


----------



## sptrawler (19 November 2018)

MarketMatters said:


> CEO's and Execs front the RC today. 'No more apologies' says Rowena Orr. She's after solutions!



Yes they do have a bit of a problem, they don't want the banks to lend recklessly, they want the banks to make heaps of money to underpin our financial stability and be too strong to fail.
They also want them to do it, without charging excessively for services.
It will certainly be an interesting outcome.
I don't think it has ever been pondered, that they really want the Banks to be a public not for profit service, maybe they shouldn't have privatised CBA?


----------



## PZ99 (20 November 2018)

Where the banks sit in your portfolio... it's a long article so charge your coffee cup 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/mon...o/news-story/7d47b387394e6e03285b9ef899907dfb

I skipped to the divvy paragraph 

DIVIDEND PRESSURE

It’s pretty clear the stock gurus aren’t overly impressed with the investment potential of the major banks in the immediate term despite attractive fully franked dividend yields of between 8 and 11 per cent. Those grossed up yields have been inflated by the falling share prices but the big question is whether, given falling profits, current dividend payouts can be maintained.

“At the moment, banks would be able to maintain dividends,” says Lee. “I wouldn’t expect any growth in dividends over the next three years and there is a risk that there could be a cut to dividends given the soft outlook for Australian banks.”

D’Amato agrees, and sees Westpac and NAB as the most likely of all the banks to cut dividends in the future because of their current payout ratios.

Both D’Amato and Lee agree that, of the Big Four banks, ANZ is their preferred choice in terms of dividend yield and potential.

It’s important to point out no-one is suggesting any of our Big Four banks are in any sort of trouble. Far from it. In fact, despite their poor investment performance and falling profits of late, they are still among the strongest, safest financial institutions in the world. With balance sheets that are still rock solid.


----------



## sptrawler (20 November 2018)

I would definitely expect a hiccup in dividends, however at the end of the day, they still have to fund people's wants and that doesn't seem to be diminishing.


----------



## MarketMatters (20 November 2018)

Well it appears CBA definitely haven't given up hope on chasing down the high commissions paid to mortgage brokers (based on loan size) to replenish their coffers following today's Banking RC. Going it alone is a treacherous zone in which they are hoping for Hayne to deliver what the industry can not uniformly agree nor achieve. This will be seen as a compensation strategy to affected customers and buying back some degree of trust...again! Someone has to pay for CBA's (and other bank's) mistakes.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (21 November 2018)

yes MM,

have CBA/banks just played counsel Orr, Hayne etc and the commission "recommends" customers to pay a mortgage broker an upfront fee

a fairfax journalist believes this will benefit CBA by 137ml/year?


----------



## willy1111 (21 November 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> yes MM,
> 
> have CBA/banks just played counsel Orr, Hayne etc and the commission "recommends" customers to pay a mortgage broker an upfront fee
> 
> a fairfax journalist believes this will benefit CBA by 137ml/year?




Comyn also recommended customers be charged the same upfront fee if they got their loan from the branch.

I hope Hayne and co are smart enough to see that the customer will be worse off, it may see a significant drop in the  number of mortgage brokers which will stifle competition and possibly see interest rate margins increase.  

Good for shareholders...not for the customer as Hayne is supposedly advocating for.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (21 November 2018)

not good for shareholders at the moment, maybe customers pay more too

a few analysts believe its going to be a lost decade for bank shares, it all commenced when the bank levy was introduced, then Wayne from APRA and now the RC which is due to end Feb 2019.


----------



## notting (21 November 2018)

Bootloads!! NOW
That's car boots not boot boots


----------



## kid hustlr (21 November 2018)

For what it's worth the banks are holding up quite well over the past several days given the environment


----------



## sptrawler (21 November 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> For what it's worth the banks are holding up quite well over the past several days given the environment



Your right, I suppose they will track sideways untill the next bit of news, good or bad will dictate the movement.
Reporting season is over, so the next news will be from the RC, I guess.


----------



## PZ99 (21 November 2018)

IMO they seem to have bottomed out and unlikely to go much lower. Oil and futures are up slightly. Monster Santa rally required


----------



## BoNeZ (22 November 2018)

In answer to the original question yes.

I want the income and brought bank shares recently to get the dividend. I had sold them earlier and brought more for the same investment increasing my holdings and income even when the dividend remained the same.

They might drop even further and I might buy more but at present I own more shares than I did six months ago and have increased my income.


----------



## PZ99 (23 November 2018)

tmstu said:


> In answer to the original question yes.
> 
> I want the income and brought bank shares recently to get the dividend. I had sold them earlier and brought more for the same investment increasing my holdings and income even when the dividend remained the same.
> 
> They might drop even further and I might buy more but at present I own more shares than I did six months ago and have increased my income.



I do much the same. Whenever they fall to ridiculous levels I just tip a few more into my retirement fund. In the case of NAB I usually offload the excess stock at $30+


----------



## MarketMatters (23 November 2018)

An interesting view for your reading https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-bank-stock-valuations-2018-11


----------



## notting (23 November 2018)

> Lending conditions have tightened, credit growth is slowing, margin pressures have intensified and house prices are in a sustained decline. Not to mention the ongoing uncertainty from the banking royal commission.




All of which is overcome by one simple action which is in the control of the banks - Pop the rates up a fraction as required and everything is just fine.  is that too hard for these geniuses to get their heads around?


----------



## MrChow (13 December 2018)

I wouldn't touch banks until their bad debts approach prior peaks.


----------



## PZ99 (14 December 2018)

I'm very happy my last parcel of bank shares have gone up 2.5% this week 

A term deposit would take an entire year to match that.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 December 2018)

Can't see the banks having any share price growth ever again.

The  government's around the globe need to allow takeovers. And they won't


----------



## sptrawler (15 December 2018)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Can't see the banks having any share price growth ever again.
> 
> The  government's around the globe need to allow takeovers. And they won't



As the Country grows, it requires funding, the banks supply that. 
The Government also want them to be too strong to fail, that means they have to make money, so their balance sheet will have to grow and with it dividends. Just my opinion.


----------



## MrChow (16 December 2018)

There's probably 2-3 generations that would get a shock if one of the big 4 banks made a loss as they haven't for 30 years.


----------



## tinhat (19 December 2018)

*APRA to remove banks' interest-only lending restrictions*


----------



## sptrawler (19 December 2018)

tinhat said:


> *APRA to remove banks' interest-only lending restrictions*



Like they say, be carefull what you wish for, everyone wanted the banks to stop lending money, it looks like that plan is out the window.
Now IMO, all they have to worry about, is silly Billy's brain farts.


----------



## jbocker (19 December 2018)

In answer to the threads question. No I am not and very unlikely to for the foreseeable future.
I wonder if the big 4 dominance of the ASX will wane over the next few years. Lets see what happens in February.
The big question is what could take their place?


----------



## BlindSquirrel (19 December 2018)

I think I will wait another 6-12 months although bank shares under $24 are mighty tempting.


----------



## Logique (9 January 2019)

Not in our preferred client group? That is, a member of an industry super fund, run by a union. Then you must pay tax twice on your bank shares.
Some may think this is white collar crime by government edict, if Labor gets in. I however couldn't possibly comment. Oh well, the self funded retirees would then qualify for the part or full pension. How would that benefit the national accounts  


> *Franking credit change could wipe billions from banks: Citigroup*
> By Shane Wright & Samantha Hutchinson, 8 January 2019 - SMH: https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...ons-from-banks-citigroup-20190108-p50q84.html
> ...Citigroup researchers found its *target valuations of the nation's major banks could fall by up to 13 per cent* in the wake of the franking credit change...
> ...12-month target share price for the Commonwealth Bank could slip from $72.05 to as low as $63.84.
> NAB's target price could fall from $31.12 to $27.21, Westpac's from $29.87 to $26.18 and the ANZ's from $30.19 to $26.89...


----------



## funnymoney876 (9 January 2019)

Why would you buy banks, crypto's will take over the worlds currencies shortly.  Banks are archaic!


----------



## PZ99 (9 January 2019)

Crypto is the most spectacular pump and dump I've ever seen.

Give it two years and the entire revolt will be operating out of Nigeria


----------



## sptrawler (9 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Crypto is the most spectacular pump and dump I've ever seen.
> 
> Give it two years and the entire revolt will be operating out of Nigeria




Long live the Ponzi.


----------



## MarketMatters (18 January 2019)

If Isaac Newton was around I'm sure he would invest much like he did in the South Sea Company!


----------



## greggles (4 November 2019)

Not buying banks yet.

WBC reported terrible FY2019 results this morning, going into a trading halt before the announcement.




WBC  said it intends to raise $2 billion via a fully underwritten institutional share placement, and another $500 million via a non-underwritten share purchase plan to give it an increased buffer above APRA's "unquestionably strong" capital benchmark of 10.5%.

The placement will be undertaken at $25.32, a 6.5% discount on the last close and an 8.1% discount to the adjusted five-day VWAP.

There's going to be more carnage to come from the other big banks IMO, so it will most likely be a long time until they represent any prospect for real growth.


----------



## PZ99 (4 November 2019)

That's in addition to cuts in dividends. 

I noticed the ANZ also slashed their franking credit down to 70% which is the first such cut in 20 years and sets a bleak future for retirees.


----------



## sptrawler (4 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> That's in addition to cuts in dividends.
> 
> I noticed the ANZ also slashed their franking credit down to 70% which is the first such cut in 20 years and sets a bleak future for retirees.



It certainly would have been an interesting ride into despair, if the franking credits had been stripped off them as well.
Which all kind of fits in with the problems I mentioned in the aged care thread, where the elderly are seen as soft targets in Australia and they need a Royal Commission to tell them that no one cares about the elderly.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 November 2019)

Clearly not a case of banks profiteering from not passing on interest rate reductions 

Net interest margin reducing


----------



## sptrawler (4 November 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Clearly not a case of banks profiteering from not passing on interest rate reductions
> 
> Net interest margin reducing



Yes but Bank bashing, makes for good headlines in the paper.


----------



## kid hustlr (4 November 2019)

Why do companies pay a dividend and then turn around do an equity raising.

What am I missing??


----------



## Struzball (5 November 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Why do companies pay a dividend and then turn around do an equity raising.
> 
> What am I missing??




I don't know either.
I'd only be buying Westpac/banks to receive a dividend.
Not to pay them a dividend.

I did buy BOQ recently, interestingly they went up yesterday when all the others went down.


----------



## Sharkman (6 November 2019)

kid hustlr said:


> Why do companies pay a dividend and then turn around do an equity raising.
> 
> What am I missing??




i'm just speculating, but i guess they distribute them to make full use of their franking account, those franking credits won't do any good sitting unused in the franking account getting eroded by inflation. holding back on the dividends will annoy retirees and super funds who want those franking credits, and they might sell off their holdings, drive down the stock price and that will hit the execs in the hip pocket. and they won't stand for that!

as for buying more of the banks, i'll probably be applying for the full allotment in the WBC capital raising, it's almost like a free call option at 25.32, so i'll wait right up until the last day, and if it's far enough "in the money" at that time, i'll apply. and immediately start selling ATM covered calls over the extra units until they get called away. unless it's so heavily oversubscribed that everyone only gets like 100 units each or something.

don't particularly want to buy more bank stock at current levels. i'll keep holding what i have, but commit new funds to international index ETFs instead. the divs should hold up, but my guess is their total return is going to be pretty much all div for a while, i can't see much growth (if any at all) for a few years. on top of regulatory and compensation pressures, they're highly dependent on the health of the overall economy. and that seems to be quite anaemic, there is no inflation, no wage growth, the household savings ratio is already down to something like 2%, AND consumer confidence has fallen heavily to something like 92. the two are supposed to be inversely correlated! that's not a good sign for the economy or the banks IMHO.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (6 November 2019)

Good post. The banks have to get to a point with ASIC/ APRA that the refunds are over.


----------



## Sharkman (20 November 2019)

Sharkman said:


> as for buying more of the banks, i'll probably be applying for the full allotment in the WBC capital raising, it's almost like a free call option at 25.32




not sure i even want to go for the rights issue anymore after today's news. it's not even a 2% discount at current prices (though my understanding is that there's a 2% floor, so the "strike price" will probably be lowered the way things are going). think i'll steer clear for now, unless things over-correct and they really get hammered down to GFC type bargain levels. just not worth the risk with the constant possibility of more skeletons in the closet being uncovered, in addition to the limited growth prospects.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (20 November 2019)

I sold my NAB position the other day, was waiting for a bounce after the ex div selloff but it didn't come so I got out with a small capital gain & dividend. It's now below my initial buy in.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 November 2019)

Looking at the banks and comparing yesterday's closing price with the 2019 high:

ANZ: -14.5%

CBA: - 2.7%

NAB: -12.7%

WBC: -17.4%

Of the big 4 the most obvious point there is that all except CBA are much the same. Westpac has all the drama going on right now but looking at the share price well ANZ and NAB aren't much different whereas CBA most certainly is. Does the market know or suspect something the rest of us aren't aware of with ANZ and NAB? Of the Big 4 it seesm that the only one the market isn't worried about is CBA.

And for a couple of random smaller ones:

BOQ: -28%

MYS: -2.5%

And what about BOQ? From an investment perspective they're making Westpac look good.

The comparatively tiny MYS is perhaps explainable as a logical beneficiary of consumer dissatisfaction with the Big 4 and being a not impossible but fairly unlikely choice of financial institution for anyone engaging in dodgy dealings.

I don't hold any of them (well, my super fund probably does hold all the big 4 but I don't hold any of them directly), just thought it was interesting to see that WBC isn't doing drastically worse than two of the other big 4 and that BOQ is doing worse than any of them.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (28 November 2019)

BEN is also down 13% from the 2019 high in June, so it's par for the course.

I'm tempted to look further at banks because of the dividend yield but with that being cut and smaller banks chipping away at the customer base, I can't see the long-term moat that there used to be (like there was in 2008/9).


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (28 November 2019)

Maybe investors feel the board and management at CBA is a cut above the rest.

The banks are just being torn apart by Governments. The Banking Tax was the start of it all, which will increase next year probably. 

Shareholders are having to foot the bill for financial stability here in Aus and the big4 are about to foot the bill for financial stability in NZ shortly (early Dec)

Why would you invest in them? The companies are doing very well considering the attack.


----------



## frugal.rock (28 November 2019)

Yes, I bought BOQ yesterday for 8.17

An institutional investor jumped in today after the 4pm end of 7.84 looking to pickup around 7 or 800,000 shares. A nice vote of confidence, IMO.
Final close of 7.98 meant a retrace of ~3% up on yesterday's close.
Was it just me, or were things jumpy as today?
F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (28 November 2019)

Yes, I bought BOQ yesterday for 8.17

An institutional investor jumped in today after the 4pm end of 7.84 looking to pickup around 7 or 800,000 shares. A nice vote of confidence, IMO.
Final close of 7.98 meant a retrace of ~3% up on yesterday's close.
Was it just me, or were things jumpy as today?
F.Rock


----------



## PZ99 (17 February 2020)

The big BEN just got smaller...

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank has kicked off a $300 million capital raising as it reported a sharp profit drop and announced it was cutting its interim dividend.

Chief executive Marnie Baker blamed low interest rates and rising regulatory pressure at the release of its half-year results on Monday, adding that ongoing technology investment and compliance costs were also impacting the lender.

The bank's statutory net profit was down 28.2 per cent to $145.8 million and the company has trimmed its interim dividend from 35¢ to 31¢. The company also reported a two per cent drop in cash earnings.

> https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...l-raise-reduces-dividend-20200217-p541eb.html

Once this dust settles I can add this to my BOQ and WBC holdings who have both capped up


----------



## sptrawler (17 February 2020)

Unless Australia rewrites its monetary system, I really can't see the Banks not coming back, time will tell but I am certainly not worried at this time.
I do hold.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 February 2020)

Bit of a thought bubble floated in the _AFR:



			If, as Justice John Middleton implied in the TPG case, three strong competitors might actually be better than four, then how might that apply to say, banking? More specifically, would the combination of *Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and Bank of Queensland* make a more formidable rival for the big four than the two banks do as separate entities?
		
Click to expand...





			The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission might not love the idea, but Bendigo’s results on Monday suggest that scale would be helpful in meeting the technology investments requirements in this sector, and getting expenses down more broadly.
		
Click to expand...





			Obviously this deal has long been talked about. And perhaps BOQ’s new chief executive, George Frazis, will be keen to tread his own path. But as Bendigo’s $300 million capital raising on Monday makes clear, the need for reinvestment is high now, and likely to remain elevated.
		
Click to expand...


_


----------



## sptrawler (17 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Bit of a thought bubble floated in the _AFR:
> _



Either that or allow the big four to swallow them up, the problem with Australia, there is only 25 million people.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 February 2020)

With the current market either buying into gold or selling gold and related entities, can't see bank's as a goer yet. So probably a good time to be buying in?
I dumped boq for a loss a while ago.
F.Rock


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Either that or allow the big four to swallow them up...



need a GFC event to let that happen. Four pillars and all that. 

Faced with an inability to meet obligations,  St George, BankWest, BoAdelaide all elected to 'merge' with big brothers, last crisis. It's the only time the regulator slacks off a bit.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 February 2020)

Wouldn't Bankwest get support from CBA?
I had thought they were a subsidiary of CBA?
F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (17 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> need a GFC event to let that happen. Four pillars and all that.
> 
> Faced with an inability to meet obligations,  St George, BankWest, BoAdelaide all elected to 'merge' with big brothers, last crisis. It's the only time the regulator slacks off a bit.



Yes that is true, more weaker players doesn't help competition, what the ACCC fails to grasp IMO is that there is a very limited pool of customers in Australia.
So are you better having four or Five strong Banks vying for the customers, or 10 small Banks? It is a bit like the supermarkets, IMO there really is only room for two big ones, if say Aldi gets bigger one of the others will get smaller.
So IMO to force small Banks to compete, is actually causing the small Banks to struggle and IMO ultimately disappear.
It is the same with the telco's, the Court made the right decision IMO, if TPG and Vodaphone didn't merge, one or both would have left the market.
GM just highlighted, they will only take loses for so long, then it is "so long, see you later".
Just my opinion.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Wouldn't Bankwest get support from CBA?
> I had thought they were a subsidiary of CBA



_Maybe you miss my irony? It would have gone broke and the Commonwealth have to honour depositors in 2008. Better to palm it to a balance sheet that could withstand shocks._

*Bankwest*, previously known as *The Bank of Western Australia*, is an Australian full-service bank based in Perth, Western Australia. It has a chequered history:







> The *Rural and Industries Bank of Western Australia* was a savings bank from 1956, was incorporated in 1990, and then in 1994 changed its name to the Bank of Western Australia Limited, with the trading name Bankwest, in preparation for privatisation. In December 1995, the Bank of Scotland acquired the bank. BoS merged with Halifax to become HBOS, and it became a wholly owned subsidiary of HBOS plc. It was sold in October 2008 to the CBA for A$2.1 billion and operates as a division of its parent company.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 February 2020)

_Maybe you miss my irony? _

I did.
Irony received, with thanks.
F.Rock


----------



## CBerg (17 February 2020)

Maybe they should loosen the capital requirements of smaller banks significantly which might encourage the smaller banks to lend more, chase more of the big 4's customers. When I look at interest rates for investor loans at the moment, all the tiny non-bank lenders provide way cheaper rates with similar functionality.

People forget Macquarie is a monstrous outfit, might not be a big 4 but it provides really good products from what I can tell, especially for investors.


----------



## UMike (3 March 2020)

Having the smallest of small dabs at WBC.
I like having an even number for the 30k parcel I bought.

No idea why the RBA rate drop affected them so much.


----------



## basilio (3 March 2020)

I suspect the government will be wanting the banks to  give  repayment moratoriums to businesses and possibly home owners affected by the  bushfires (remember those ?)  and corona virus. 

How that impacts on profitability will be interesting. I can't see it in anyones interest to aggressively bankrupt businesses and home owners caught up in the current  crises. We'll see


----------



## qldfrog (4 March 2020)

UMike said:


> Having the smallest of small dabs at WBC.
> I like having an even number for the 30k parcel I bought.
> 
> No idea why the RBA rate drop affected them so much.



The lower the rate the lower the profit... simple
Purely for demonstration
20pc margin on 5pc interest is 5 times more than 20pc margin on 1pc
If rba rate is 5pc banks can lend at 6pc
If it is 1pc, hard to lend at 1.2 with fixed costs etc so imagine at 0.5
Low rate is the death of banks
BTW, if you have any buy on banks today,make sure you look at the us market before the open, and act


----------



## basilio (6 March 2020)

Bank shares taking a beating.  Just noticed BEN falling below $8.

On Feb 18th they announced they had raised $250m through an institutional placement at $9.34.  Share price then was around $10...

On Feb 24th they invited current shareholders to also buy in. Price would $9.34 or 2% less than the 5 day day average around March 13th (closing day )

Long story short . BEN has dropped from *$10.50 less than 3 weeks ago (Feb 14th)  to under $8.00.  *Anyone been shorting them ? 
_______________________

On reflection all the banks have lost  dropped  at least 20% in the past couple of weeks.


----------



## wayneL (6 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Bank shares taking a beating.  Just noticed BEN falling below $8.
> 
> On Feb 18th they announced they had raised $250m through an institutional placement at $9.34.  Share price then was around $10...
> 
> ...



Brokers recos have a strong sell on BEN, could explain much of it.


----------



## frugal.rock (6 March 2020)

basilio said:


> On reflection all the banks have lost  dropped  at least 20% in the past couple of weeks.



At a guess 80% of the market has dropped ~10-40% or more in the last couple of weeks...
The whole thing has been orchestrated by instos...
One example,
Deutsche Bank AG and its related bodies corporate (together, the  
“Deutsche Bank Group”) announced 2 days ago of Ceasing Substantial Holder for NCZ:ASX and then this morning a Becoming Subby announcement again.
NCZ dropped from 18c to 0.095 recently...
I'm hazarding a guess there's many more of these announcements around the traps?

I would love to be able to view and compare short trades charts against long trades.... might try getting the shorts report daily and chart it all somehow... is anyone any good at Excel macros?
Cheers.
F.Rock

F.Rock


----------



## tinhat (7 March 2020)

Look back at this thread and others here and I was all bullish bank stocks. Rah, rah! I'm only interested now in deploying my modest resources into companies I think might help transform our economy. No point investing in the dead. Leave that to scotty and his national extractive industry bedfellow country party up the farmer **** the land and the water mates. Might as well go live on the great barrier reef and start a coal min.


----------



## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

tinhat said:


> Might as well go live on the great barrier reef and start a coal min.



it is coalled (;-) QLd Bowen basin


----------



## frugal.rock (24 June 2020)

Starting to consider the financial sector may be underpriced.
Most of the individuals are still down 25% overall. 
Many of the big banks have a stake in the BNPL sub sector, either by stock ownership or lending, or both.
If banks are slowly losing market share to BNPL companies, can we expect a few takeovers from the banking sector?
My thoughts are, maybe I should consider what the banks are investing in.
Some comparisons for my thinking;
Companies like Aldi and McDonald's invest considerable time and money looking for emerging areas (real estate) to setup in.
Am thinking it's only reasonable to consider what the banks are doing.
It's not in their interests for loans to become junk.
On a side note, the government has put tighter restrictions on banks lending, no doubt reducing junk debt further for the future. 
I believe new loans are down considerably, but refinancing has gone up considerably.
My 

F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (14 January 2021)

A bit of recovery starting to happen in the banking space, I guess the penny is dropping that people are saving and also using government stimulus to build. So I have been nibbling away.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (14 January 2021)

I just can't bring myself to do it. Not with rock bottom interest rates and unlimited money printing.


----------



## sptrawler (14 January 2021)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I just can't bring myself to do it. Not with rock bottom interest rates and unlimited money printing.



Good points squirrel, but I just work on the theory, life goes on and most things like the banks return to long term average.
But as you say, still plenty of headwinds.


----------



## UMike (18 February 2021)

ANZ and WBC have had massive gains.

Probably pulled CBA and NAB up with them.

Missed the boat?


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## dyna (18 February 2021)

That boat has well and truly gone.Might have to change this thread's title.I got 10 grand worth of WBC in March at $15.40,$23.89 in February,worst of all,$24.40 way back in March 2019.MP at $24.37 today,so I'm just now breaking even.Boy,what bad timing.Won't be so gung- ho careless,next time.


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## sptrawler (18 February 2021)

The great thing is, these once in a lifetime events are happening much more often.lol


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## spratty84 (18 February 2021)

UMike said:


> ANZ and WBC have had massive gains.
> 
> Probably pulled CBA and NAB up with them.
> 
> Missed the boat?



Yep the boat has gone, i am grateful that i bought 80k worth of ben wbc nab anz back in march, it was good timing for me personally to kick start my portfolio off again.


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## qldfrog (19 February 2021)

spratty84 said:


> Yep the boat has gone, i am grateful that i bought 80k worth of ben wbc nab anz back in march, it was good timing for me personally to kick start my portfolio off again.



probably a good opportunity to spend at the next pullback, we will have one, in anticipation of interest rate rising again


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## spratty84 (19 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> probably a good opportunity to spend at the next pullback, we will have one, in anticipation of interest rate
> 
> 
> qldfrog said:
> ...






qldfrog said:


> probably a good opportunity to spend at the next pullback, we will have one, in anticipation of interest rate rising again



I will be keenly waiting


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## Dona Ferentes (19 February 2021)

_Shares in ANZ hit their highest level in a year yesterday, putting behind the ravages of COVID and the lockdowns after a solid December quarter trading update.  ANZ said its unaudited statutory profit after tax for the first quarter of the financial year was $1.6 billion, up from a quarterly average of $773 million the first half of last year.

The quarterly trading update was a first for ANZ since the Global Financial Crisis to keep the market informed during the uncertain environment brought on by the coronavirus pandemic._

.........
_ANZ joined rivals Commonwealth, NAB and Westpac in justifying the big rally in their shares since early November with its update showing a sharp rise in unaudited cash earnings. The big four have seen 20% plus rises in the value of their shares since late October-early November as investors realised they had been damaged by COVID.

The appearance of successful vaccines also helped switch investor focus to more traditional value stocks and the banks have rewarded that returned attention from the market with solid earnings update – the CBA for the half year to December and the ANZ, NAB and Westpac for their first quarters.

ANZ’s higher cash profit for the December quarter is another sign the big four banks have emerged from the COVID-driven pandemic sell-off in solid shape with little of the feared bad debt concerns. But they still have to weather the downturn expected after JobKeeper and JobSeeker are ended in around six weeks (or reduced to a more targeted scheme).

Still all banks have seen a material drop in deferred loans -housing especially – and small business deferments have also fallen sharply as business activity improves from the hit administered by COVID-19.

- _Glenn Dyer


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## sptrawler (19 April 2021)

NAB and WBC should be reporting soon, their results will be eagerly awaited, especially with the housing market going gangbusters.
Also WBC shouldn't have to give away another lazy $bilion, for poor management.


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## sptrawler (3 May 2021)

Well NAB report next, WBC seem to have come out of the woods, for now.








						Westpac profit rebounds as home loans grow; retailer Premier to repay JobKeeper
					

Westpac's net profit more than doubles amid pandemic recovery. Premier Investments, owner of Smiggle and Peter Alexander, will return $15.6 million in JobKeeper funds to the ATO.




					www.abc.net.au


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## sptrawler (31 July 2021)

Interesting article on the banks, it looks as though I may have finally scored a win.








						A $30b bank buyback bonanza in store for investors
					

Banks are primed to hand back billions of dollars of excess capital to investors, in sharp contrast to last year when they were told to batten down the hatches.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
In December, APRA’s Wayne Byres told the market that APRA had conducted a series of stress tests on the banks to gauge their ability to endure a bad crisis. This included a “severe downside scenario” where economic growth tanked 15 per cent, unemployment rose 13 per cent and house prices plummeted more than 30 per cent. The banks passed with flying colours, with APRA estimating such a crisis would result in a 5 per cent fall in the banks’ capital adequacy ratio to 6.6 per cent, which is still above the 4.5 per cent minimum requirement.

According to leading banking analyst Brett Le Mesurier who works at Velocity Trade, the banks are sitting on at least $30 billion in surplus capital available for capital returns.
He estimates that by September 30, ANZ will have $4.5 billion in excess capital, CBA $12 billion, NAB $5 billion and Westpac $8 billion. This doesn’t include ANZ and NAB’s latest buybacks.

Indeed, Le Mesurier believes the amount could be closer to $40 billion over the next two years on the basis the banks won’t grow much, they will write back bad debt provisions and Westpac sells more businesses.
In the case of Westpac and CBA, which have a combined $6.5 billion in franking credits, some of the capital can be returned in an off-market buyback that attaches franking credits to the capital return to provide local investors with tax-friendly buybacks.

“The outlook is positive for banks because home loan growth is likely to continue to increase,” Le Mesurier says.


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## divs4ever (31 July 2021)

in the current scenario , i see the rush  to buy-backs as a desperate attempt to buy-out hostile share-holders

 ( i hold a small number of WBC because i dumped them ex. div )

 i had previously exited ANZ completely 

 what i will enjoy watching  is 

 the big institutional   investors ( and fund managers ) happily lend out the share-holding to short-sellers ( and other 'activists )

 if you think i am crazy  watch for them to start issuing convertible debt/hybrids in the coming year ( guessing the easy credit to them will dry up )

 cheers


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## sptrawler (1 September 2021)

I'm interested to see, how this property boom, translates onto the banks bottom lines.


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## Dona Ferentes (2 September 2021)

Anyone buying banks yet?​On top of its $3.5 billion dividend, CBA will also start a $6 billion off-market buyback supported by $2.1 billion in franking credits.

Buybacks announced in the past few weeks include a $2.5 billion repurchase for NAB and a $1.5 billion buyback for ANZ, both announced last month.

As well as a hefty dividend, Suncorp will buy back up to $250 million of shares from the market, which reduces dilution among investors.

And Westpac said; _given excess capital and franking credits, the Board will consider a return of capital, with an update expected at our FY21 results_


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## frugal.rock (1 November 2021)

Solid gap down from Westpac today I guess from share buy back announcement?
I don't have any experience with buy backs, do an wondering why the market decided to react as it has...

Might be a buy the dip opportunity, or not?


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## sptrawler (1 November 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Solid gap down from Westpac today I guess from share buy back announcement?
> I don't have any experience with buy backs, do an wondering why the market decided to react as it has...
> Might be a buy the dip opportunity, or not?



Maybe the punters expected a special dividend, or a return of capital?
Let's be honest, WBC management hasn't done much for the long term shareholder in the last 10 years.




As opposed to CBA, they are both in the same business, they should track each other, if they were performing the same.


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## peter2 (1 November 2021)

Rising costs and mgt stuff ups that have cost heaps are to blame.


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## mullokintyre (1 November 2021)

Just can't bring myself to buy banks.
For me its like buying shares in tobacco Companies.
Mick


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## peter2 (1 November 2021)

Disappointing but true.


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## mullokintyre (1 November 2021)

Its the doctors.
I remember an ad on the back of the readers digest that said 3 out of 5 Doctors recommend camel cigarettes.
Mick


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## sptrawler (1 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> Rising costs and mgt stuff ups that have cost heaps are to blame.



Yes Westpac actually prove disclaimers are correct.

"Historical performance shouldn't be taken as a guide to future performance".

In WBC case, they seem to continually prove it to be true. 

I do hold, but have done for a long, long time.


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## divs4ever (1 November 2021)

Australia's Westpac to return $4.3 billion to investors, shares plunge on margin hit









						Australia's Westpac takes hit to margins, shares tumble despite buyback By Reuters
					

Australia's Westpac takes hit to margins, shares tumble despite buyback




					www.investing.com
				




 DYOR

 ( i hold a small number of WBC )

 have no intention of buying the big 4 directly ( in the near future )

 but MIGHT look at adding ( or buying into  ) a bank/XFJ focused ETF  if an attractive price comes along 

 MQG is my largest holding and i hold most of the second tier banks ( listed on the ASX )

 i agree with mullokintyre some have damaged their brand  too badly for me  , the SP would have to plummet ( say in a market meltdown ) to tempt me again 

i have held ANZ in the past still  hold a trivial amount of WBC

 BUT i expect many retail investors will disagree with me as we approach Xmas , as they search for comparatively safe returns


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## peter2 (1 November 2021)

Currently my trading performance indicates that I can reverse gravity. Buying WBC today is a test.


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## frugal.rock (1 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> Buying WBC today is a test.



Does that mean you have bought Mr P2 ?


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## peter2 (1 November 2021)

Bought at 24.10 and if price closes near 25 I'll consider I'm omnipotent, ie. "Legend in my own lunchtime".


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## frugal.rock (1 November 2021)

I've had a nibble too...😬
Have been considering that banks in general should see a good year or 3 from here, with inflation on the simmer and rates expected to increase.
Couple that with the buyback which could indicate higher dividends going forward.
The scenario seems to be the opposite of a dilution scenario.
I note, most banks down today and it looks like WBC is going to see the biggest volume day in a long long time.


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## KevinBB (1 November 2021)

Yes, I bought some, too. 380. Solely for the buy back. They will be gone by Christmas when the buy back is complete.
KH


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## debtfree (1 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> Bought at 24.10 and if price closes near 25 I'll consider I'm omnipotent, ie. "Legend in my own lunchtime".



You're really getting into this Dr Fly thing @peter2


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## frugal.rock (1 November 2021)

KevinBB said:


> Yes, I bought some, too. 380. Solely for the buy back. They will be gone by Christmas when the buy back is complete.
> KH



What are your thoughts around the buyback Kev?
Why would you not hold longer than Christmas?


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## KevinBB (1 November 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> What are your thoughts around the buyback Kev?
> Why would you not hold longer than Christmas?



I am a believer in selling when the reason for purchase is gone.

The reason for purchase of these WBC is solely to collect the franking credits available in this off market buy back. I bought 380, which is very likely to be the amount at where WBC will buy 100% of the shareholding, and I will offer them all. Edit: the buy back should be complete by Christmas.

As an aside, I started running two stock systems earlier last month, in addition to my futures system. So, I am trying as much as possible to stick with the systems, and hold what the systems tell me, but also having a little bit of cash available for these one-off opportunities.

Next, hopefully will be BHP. Going from memory, BHP and RIO haven't had a really good off-market buy back for a couple of years, now, I expect one of them to be next cab off the rank to give surplus franking credits to shareholders. BHP has a history of doing these, so I'm passively waiting ...

KH


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## sptrawler (1 November 2021)

@KevinBB do you have any info on the buyback conditions, or a link? Cheers


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## dyna (1 November 2021)

For a Nil tax payer or a retiree , buy backs will certainly provide a bit of tax benefit, sometimes, too, for a ( nominal ) 15% tax paying SMSF ( if there is no scale back ) .
For everybody else on higher marginal rates , it's hardly worth the bother. Take a look at the recent result of CBA's buyback offer.... what a waste of time.


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## frugal.rock (1 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> if price closes near 25 I'll consider I'm omnipotent



It would appear that you will need to conjure up all your powers for that to happen today.
Forming a base on the intraday, however, tomorrow's a new day...
All eyes on the Fed I guess.
Already the biggest volume day since around May last year...


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## qldfrog (1 November 2021)

I went in at below 24$..ready to trigger sell if it does not go my way


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## KevinBB (1 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> @KevinBB do you have any info on the buyback conditions, or a link? Cheers



Sorry, have had visitors most of the afternoon. Don't know if you can see this link from the ASX web site:


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02445305-2A1335215?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


If not, go to your favourite broker, WBC announcements, then Westpac announces $3.5 billion off-market share buy-back.
Page 3 onwards is a good summary.

KH


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## peter2 (17 November 2021)

Hmm, interesting, *CBA* back at $99. Reduced margins in a low interest rate environment, who would have guessed.
Like WBC, CBA has been hammered. Worth a nibble, IMO, or do we wait for lower?


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## Sean K (17 November 2021)

peter2 said:


> Hmm, interesting, *CBA* back at $99. Reduced margins in a low interest rate environment, who would have guessed.
> Like WBC, CBA has been hammered. Worth a nibble, IMO, or do we wait for lower?




Ex-Div, a mountain of support at $88 so not much downside, pending general market implosion.

Was it ex-Div, I just assumed?


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## KevinBB (17 November 2021)

No, not ex div. That's in 3 months time, or so. AFR says margin jitters, even though they showed an increase of 20% in quarterly cash profits.

From this AFR article:
_The market was spooked by the deteriorating margins and the shares were sold off sharply in the opening minutes of trade falling much as 6 per cent following a stronger session on Wall Street.
_
KH


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## Sean K (17 November 2021)

KevinBB said:


> No, not ex div. That's in 3 months time, or so. AFR says margin jitters, even though they showed an increase of 20% in quarterly cash profits.
> 
> From this AFR article:
> _The market was spooked by the deteriorating margins and the shares were sold off sharply in the opening minutes of trade falling much as 6 per cent following a stronger session on Wall Street._
> ...




It's run pretty hard the past couple of months. Maybe overshot on the way up too.


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## KevinBB (17 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> It's run pretty hard the past couple of months. Maybe overshot on the way up too.



Yes, it has. Don't know if I'd pay up for banks at these prices, although I did buy some ANZ, purely for dividends, a while ago.

For CBA, under $100 looks tempting, under $90 is appealing, under $80 is throw the kitchen sink at it. But, I'm waiting until CBA reports, then decide 

KH


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## peter2 (31 January 2022)

Starting to consider the banks after they've been sold down a little and more pressure for the RBA to start raising interest rates. 
They could go down further but I think they're close to the bottom. ANZ, NAB have held up better than the CBA and the worst is WBC. 
I'll wait for their next reports and my chart based setups.


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## sptrawler (31 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> Starting to consider the banks after they've been sold down a little and more pressure for the RBA to start raising interest rates.
> They could go down further but I think they're close to the bottom. ANZ, NAB have held up better than the CBA and the worst is WBC.
> I'll wait for their next reports and my chart based setups.



Interesting you mention this peter, I am seriously thinking about buying a few WBC, I already have a lot but at the level they are now and with no one going to apply for the buyback? Interesting IMO. Oversold?


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## sptrawler (28 March 2022)

peter2 said:


> Starting to consider the banks after they've been sold down a little and more pressure for the RBA to start raising interest rates.
> They could go down further but I think they're close to the bottom. ANZ, NAB have held up better than the CBA and the worst is WBC.
> I'll wait for their next reports and my chart based setups.



Well Peter, they certainly seem to be coming out of the doldrums, I have NAB and WBC, both are starting to look like they might have turned the corner IMO.


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## Craton (28 March 2022)

Yep, DRP every six months.


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## peter2 (9 June 2022)

I'm starting to get interested and will place them in the reversal watch list.


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## Telamelo (9 June 2022)

peter2 said:


> I'm starting to get interested and will place them in the reversal watch list.



Keep in mind that rumour is for RBA to inflict more pain with another rate rise in July - If so, the Big4 Banks will likely become cheaper imo


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## Sharkman (9 June 2022)

i'll likely get some CBA put to me at $100 (effectively $97.75 after factoring in the premium received) next thurs. i'll probably just take the assignment, i don't particularly mind taking on a CBA position at this point, after having my last position called away at the same $100 back in march.

might even sell some more puts at a $92 strike in the coming days, as that looks a reasonable support level and those elevated vols (around 26) on the jul contracts look tempting. though retaining a bit more dry powder is also tempting!

if reports that the majority of homeowners are ahead on their repayments are to be believed, i think the banks should be fine and the rising rates should in theory help them widen their margins somewhat. i could of course be wrong though.


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## Telamelo (10 August 2022)

NAB making $20 million net profit per day! however it's shares fell almost -4% yesterday.. apparently any business only making $20M net profit per day should be ashamed of themselves.

This morning CBA declared  $9.6 billion net profit! with a fully franked dividend payable of $2.10 per share..

P.S. Gotta love the big4 banks as they manipulate governments & the economy in taking advantage of screwing mortgage holder's whilst ripping off people with savings accounts/term deposits etc. Capitalism/greed at it's best in exploiting the most vulnerable in society.


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## divs4ever (10 August 2022)

Telamelo said:


> P.S. Gotta love the big4 banks as they manipulate governments & the economy in taking advantage of screwing mortgage holder's whilst ripping off people with savings accounts/term deposits etc. Capitalism/greed at it's best in exploiting the most vulnerable in society.



 and for just straight out  investment gymnastics  there is MQG  

 GO MQG ( i hold MQG 'free-carried ' .. my largest holding )


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## Telamelo (10 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> and for just straight out  investment gymnastics  there is MQG
> 
> GO MQG ( i hold MQG 'free-carried ' .. my largest holding )



MQG offer best 1 yr term deposit rate of 3.3% by the way   compared with only 2.2% from CBA


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## divs4ever (10 August 2022)

Telamelo said:


> MQG offer best 1 yr term deposit rate of 3.3% by the way   compared with only 2.2% from CBA



 i know  , there is some cash sitting waiting to be used for a building project with them 

 interesting times ahead 

 i wonder how the banks will cope with a CBDC  ( after all they will either become regime lackeys or completely irrelevant )

 if you own nothing  and rent everything  most of the banks  investing strategies will be kaput ( and of course only the central banks will be allowed to create money/credit/


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## UMike (7 September 2022)

If Westpac go under $20 I am buying again. 
Not 'cause it is sound advice but I sense the BS meter is On the Oversold Dial.

Also looking at JDO as a Falling Knife scenario. Put a buy order in already at $1.095. Had enough of these under valued environments. Still can't get a builder to make my garage. Money is being spent like there is no tomorrow.


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## peter2 (7 September 2022)

UMike said:


> If Westpac go under $20




Shouldn't be long for this to happen. 

*JDO*: I looked at it recently for a possible reversal setup. Business lender with no home loans - should be a goer. It seems the market doesn't like it as price is drifting lower.  *JDO* like the rest of the ASX isn't ready to be bought yet (for me).


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## frugal.rock (15 September 2022)

Looking at BEN.
Sitting near a 52 week low. 🤔
Has gone ex dividend recently. 
Looking like a decent lower entry price setup for a longer term compounding style investment, imo.


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## KevinBB (15 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Looking at BEN.
> Sitting near a 52 week low. 🤔
> Has gone ex dividend recently.
> Looking like a decent lower entry price setup for a longer term compounding style investment, imo.
> ...




unless, of course, it breaks through that lower support level, and heads towards $6

KH


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## frugal.rock (16 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Looking at BEN.
> Sitting near a 52 week low. 🤔
> Has gone ex dividend recently.
> Looking like a decent lower entry price setup for a longer term compounding style investment, imo.





KevinBB said:


> unless, of course, it breaks through that lower support level, and heads towards $6
> 
> KH



I can't see it doing that. 
Yesty was a good day for banks in general, not so great for BEN, but it was positive. 
It is bouncing off a 52 week low after going ex dividend, so it won't happen overnight, although is up 1% as I write...


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## InsvestoBoy (23 September 2022)

*me right now*















						Is a steeper yield curve good news for banks? A challenge to the conventional wisdom
					

Oliver Brenman, Frank Eich, and Jumana Saleheen The conventional wisdom amongst financial market observers, academics, and journalists is that a steeper yield curve should be good news for bank pro…




					bankunderground.co.uk


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## KevinBB (23 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> *me right now*



Yes, me in small quantities, too. On Wednesday I replaced some IOZ with ANZ, a straight swap. I'll do the same with NAB early next week.

My reason is a little different: its dividend time ... just a little more than 45 days before ANZ and NAB go ex div.

KH


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## InsvestoBoy (23 September 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Yes, me in small quantities, too. On Wednesday I replaced some IOZ with ANZ, a straight swap. I'll do the same with NAB early next week.
> 
> My reason is a little different: its dividend time ... just a little more than 45 days before ANZ and NAB go ex div.
> 
> KH




oops, sorry, I didn't mean to imply I am buying banks now, was just trying to depict my current thoughts "right now"


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## peter2 (23 September 2022)

I am. Bought 1/4 position in *MQG* today. Will buy another parcel further down and will then wait for rising prices to add final 1/2. 

I'm waiting to start a similar tactic in *CBA* at $90. *BHP* at $35. *WDS* at $30. *GEAR* at $19. Plus a few others in current dip. 
For conservative medium term (1-3yr) outlook portfolio. Aim is to earn more than term deposit rates (>4%pa).


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## KevinBB (23 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> oops, sorry, I didn't mean to imply I am buying banks now, was just trying to depict my current thoughts "right now"



Just like any business, it is always a good time to buy when margins are rising strongly. Fuel retail is another dog in the same kennel, or at least it was a couple of months ago.

KH


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## divs4ever (23 September 2022)

i probably should have bought extra  KSL today ... but was busy trying to cherry-pick the REITs  (

 have an order in for extra BOQ , but didn't really get close there

 i need more down  for most of the banks ( i hold )

 i should probably calculate a target price for extra VUK over the weekend , as well


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## InsvestoBoy (23 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i should probably calculate a target price for extra VUK over the weekend , as well




you ever gonna tell us how you come up with those targets?


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## divs4ever (23 September 2022)

well first i use a little bit of greed   ( it will NEVER come down to THAT price  ..  but sometimes i am delightfully wrong )

 then a double-check   the value  using historical divs   and then forecast  divs  ( neither are reliable guides , but this game is all about risk V. reward  , no potential reward , i move on )

 then go through the boring stuff  P/E  , and D/E   , look to see if there is a chance of future earnings growth  etc etc 

 with VUK i have to weigh up the chances  the UK government will nationalize the bank ( the City of London  despise Branson )


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## UMike (14 October 2022)

WBC up 8% this week. Anyone see that coming?


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