# ASX 200 Analysis



## ob1kenobi (29 May 2005)

Just called up the ASX 200 charts for 1 Year and for the last 3 months. We've had a triple or 3 sisters event recently. If history repeats itself, it should fall tomorrow. Charts are below!


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## RichKid (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

Interesting idea but if the first pattern had been replicated in the short term chart wouldn't the last test of support gone through instead of bouncing up? Still appears to be ranging inside that recent base, let's see if it pulls back or goes on to retest the all time highs.


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## ob1kenobi (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

I did have that thought but was still struck by the fact that it is largely going sideways! I agree, time needs to be our friend on this one.


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## tech/a (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

Just my veiw Ive had for a while now


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## ob1kenobi (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

Tech/A, The 1 Year chart certainly seems to anticipate a fall. I certainly don't expect it to break its resistance line too early.


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## RichKid (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Just my veiw Ive had for a while now




Thanks for the chart tech, I remember you posted it in the other XJO thread too, I should have checked a bar chart before commenting on the 3 sisters post- looks like it's left the base (rather than ranging within it) and is powering up, might retest the previous resistance (c4075 from memory?) imo as the recent rise has been steep.

(BTW, tech's chart is for the XAO so it'll look a bit different to the XJO but similar pattern imo.)


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## tech/a (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

OBI

There is no right or wrong analysis.
Just different ways to look at the same thing.
Im undecided longterm but agree with what you see.


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## Smurf1976 (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*



			
				ob1kenobi said:
			
		

> Just called up the ASX 200 charts for 1 Year and for the last 3 months. We've had a triple or 3 sisters event recently. If history repeats itself, it should fall tomorrow. Charts are below!



Just wondering how you know that it will fall TOMORROW. I have looked at your charts and whilst I can see that a fall SOON is on the cards, I can't follow how it needs to be tomorrow?  

I too am expecting a fall but that is based on sentiment / fundamentals and looking at chart patterns in individual stocks more than T/A.


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## ob1kenobi (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Just wondering how you know that it will fall TOMORROW. I have looked at your charts and whilst I can see that a fall SOON is on the cards, I can't follow how it needs to be tomorrow?
> 
> I too am expecting a fall but that is based on sentiment / fundamentals and looking at chart patterns in individual stocks more than T/A.




I merely use tomorrow as the next part of the story. The graph is at a point where it may go down or just keep doing what its doing. I am expecting a fall though in the near term. Given that it finished well enough on Friday, I think tomorrow is a fair ask as it can have the effect of setting the tone for the market early in the week. I'm merely asking the question.


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## Smurf1976 (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

Just wondering if people here have a fundamental view of the market?

I know, trade what you see not what you think, but right now there seem to be two distinct lines of thought. One says somewhere between 4600 - 5000 by the end of 2005. The other says the market made a major top in March and the low is more than 12 months away. There may be other views around too but I have encountered these two more than once.

Personally I think there have been too many "but the economy is strong..." types around over the past few months arguing why this, that or something else will/won't happen "becasue the economy is strong". And then I keep hearing reports about "difficult trading conditions" from here, there and everywhere. But then things like new car sales are still strong. I look at the flat bond yield curve and all the media publicity about China and commodities etc. and treat this as a contrarian indicator. I'm not an ultrabear predicting a crash but I don't think we're going to see 5000 any time soon. No doubt others will have valid reasons to disagree. Just wondering if anyone else has thoughts on this?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (29 May 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*

Personally, I don't know why people have been saying it will reach 5000. Something akin to prophesising I think. How do they know? If they can predict that, why are they working? Surely, they could have already made their billions.


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## RichKid (1 June 2005)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Just wondering if people here have a fundamental view of the market?
> 
> I know, trade what you see not what you think, but right now there seem to be two distinct lines of thought. One says somewhere between 4600 - 5000 by the end of 2005. The other says the market made a major top in March and the low is more than 12 months away. There may be other views around too but I have encountered these two more than once.
> 
> Personally I think there have been too many "but the economy is strong..." types around over the past few months arguing why this, that or something else will/won't happen "becasue the economy is strong". And then I keep hearing reports about "difficult trading conditions" from here, there and everywhere. But then things like new car sales are still strong. I look at the flat bond yield curve and all the media publicity about China and commodities etc. and treat this as a contrarian indicator. I'm not an ultrabear predicting a crash but I don't think we're going to see 5000 any time soon. No doubt others will have valid reasons to disagree. Just wondering if anyone else has thoughts on this?




Hey folks, there are a couple of other threads on the fundamentals of the market, have a look in ASX stock chat, best to post it there, you'll see more discussion about non-chart stuff.


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## Wysiwyg (13 August 2009)

*Re: ASX 200-What Might Happen!*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> *Personally, I don't know why people have **been saying it will reach 5000*. Something akin to prophesising I think. How do they know? If they can predict that, why are they working? Surely, they could have already made their billions.




6850 + Snake. lol. Profits from a prophet.

Anyway present day now I`m thinking between *4450 and 4520* as the top for this bull run. Reason being that I`m comparing five bullish candles on the weekly and the top will be in the next few days and next week will see a dark cloud candle materialise. Playing it by eye. 
Go bulls go, go bulls go, go bulls go.


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## Wysiwyg (17 August 2009)

*Re: ASX 200 - What Might Happen!*

Have all week for the dark cloud cover to manifest and well on the way from Monday. The progress so far.


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## Acies (13 September 2009)

*Anyone expecting a down slide (ASX200)?*

Hello All, 

This is my first post so bare with me  – I am new to investing and I was looking at getting in to the market. I am mainly interested in Australian Shares.  

Do you think that there will be a decline in the ASX in Sept/Oct? seeing we hit a 11 month high this week would you expect there to be a correction. 

I though that I would wait till the end of Oct until I get in, or should I get in now? 

Cheers 

Acies


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## wayneL (13 September 2009)

*Re: Anyone Expecting a down slide (ASX200)?*

No.

Uncle Ben has saved the world and it's still raining cash. Dip buyers will be all over any down days, snapping up "bargains".

...and we all live happily ever after. 

PS - Unless you're a very good looking woman, I'd prefer to bear with you than bare with you.


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## Sean K (13 September 2009)

*Re: Anyone Expecting a down slide (ASX200)?*

You should check the 'XAO analysis' thread.


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## tech/a (13 September 2009)

*Re: Anyone expecting a down slide (ASX200)?*

Decline in the ASX 200 equates to short ASX 200.

If your trading stock inside the ASX 200 then possible relevance.
If trading stocks outside the ASX 200 then it could quite possibly be an individual stock/index/trading methodology question.

I presume you are thinking long not short.

Its really a question which relates only to the ASX 200


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## Sean K (13 September 2009)

Moved thread and generalised topic so we don't have too many ASX 200 analysis threads.


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## Jay70 (28 September 2009)

*Re: commercials are having a ball*

Fridays play on the asx 200 and the spi was nothing short of a set up by the commercials to Fleece the market. The spi opens 20 points below sycom close then proceeds to drop through a strong support line trigerring long stops and new wave of technical sellers. Then from about 11am to 4pm they ramp the market from the week lows to the week highs triggering most technical short stops and attracting new technical longs. The market technically looks strong. They do everything they can to mask the real move and catch Joe average retail trader on the wrong side before the real move starts. Today the market has opened low again however this time there could be to many weak traders not prepared to sell it again and caught long which may allow this to finally start to drop. This is just one example of why in the short term the commercials hold all the cards.


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## RayG (28 September 2009)

*Re: commercials are having a ball*



Jay70 said:


> Fridays play on the asx 200 and the spi was nothing short of a set up by the commercials to Fleece the market. The spi opens 20 points below sycom close then proceeds to drop through a strong support line trigerring long stops and new wave of technical sellers. Then from about 11am to 4pm they ramp the market from the week lows to the week highs triggering most technical short stops and attracting new technical longs. The market technically looks strong. They do everything they can to mask the real move and catch Joe average retail trader on the wrong side before the real move starts. Today the market has opened low again however this time there could be to many weak traders not prepared to sell it again and caught long which may allow this to finally start to drop. This is just one example of why in the short term the commercials hold all the cards.





Slightly paranoid view, *but*, if you are correct in knowing what they are doing you can turn the tables and second guess the moves.  

Regards
Ray


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## Jay70 (28 September 2009)

*Re: commercials are having a ball*



RayG said:


> Slightly paranoid view, *but*, if you are correct in knowing what they are doing you can turn the tables and second guess the moves.
> 
> Regards
> Ray




I used to think the same until about 10 years ago when the late Zoran Gayor (reputable trader for 30 yrs) showed me how they did this first hand. But yes you are right in saying this is an apportunity for short term trades. One just needs to trade like a fly on a camels back.


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## Wysiwyg (22 September 2015)

Testing the low end of range again. Hopefully it will bust through and we have a massive sell off and get rid of this stupid bottom bounce .


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## shouldaindex (22 September 2015)

Interesting to learn the theories on how it all works.

As I'm a long term buy / hold it doesn't matter to me (except if I'm trying to squeeze 1-2%) but interesting none the less.


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## Porper (25 March 2019)

H&S pattern triggered today on the XJO. If it retraces to the 50%-61.8% retracement level then this is just the beginning.


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