# BLY - Boart Longyear



## bernardp (10 May 2007)

Hi guys,

Am new here, have been reading the forums for a fair while and decided to register. I noticed a thread has not been started re: BLY. The price has risen fairly since the IPO and a fair bit of volume has gone through it just today.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this share?

Appreciate the feedback.

Bern


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## doogie_goes_off (10 May 2007)

They could hardly have chosen a better time to float, profits unlikely to get any better than this year so many will bail after XD date I guess?


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## Fab (4 June 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> They could hardly have chosen a better time to float, profits unlikely to get any better than this year so many will bail after XD date I guess?




Why? Eureka report and Macquarie appears to be very positive on this stock. I lilke the fact that they have long term instalment warrants available. My problem is I don’t know much about them except that they are involved in drilling… sounds good in a middle of a mining boom. How good is the management team? What are the EPS forecast for 2008 – 2009? What P/E are they trading on? Basically any information on them would be much appreciated.


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## greenfs (4 June 2007)

It was announced last week that this stock, together with NWS, is to be added to ASX 100 index about mid June 2007. This should lead to the sp remaining strong as the institutions and funds managers bid to be holding in line with its % value of ASX100.

After watching with interest since the listing, I today bought into this stock intending it to be a long-term hold.


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## Love Zn (6 June 2007)

Bern

I think this will be a good investment.  With so many people throwing money in companies to drill holes in the ground to explore for the likes of Uranium, it makes perfect sense that companies providing the drilling equipment and labour will do well out of it too.

Also have a look at Ausdrill - ASL, appears to be doing well and has been listed longer.


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## kerosam (6 June 2007)

anyone knows if they provide rubber tyres for the mining heavy machines? i think they BLY is less volatile than the mining companies who depends heavily on metal prices.

might be a safer heaven within the resource industry.

any idea who are the top 20 shareholders?


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## Love Zn (7 June 2007)

kerosam said:


> anyone knows if they provide rubber tyres for the mining heavy machines?




Not BLY  Goodyear perhaps

And just incase your wondering Austin Enginerring (ANG) do large dump truck bodies and exacavator bins for the mining industry 



kerosam said:


> any idea who are the top 20 shareholders?




No Annual Report published yet, but this may give you some idea:

Shareholders buying 
Date Shareholder Previous % New % Shares Traded 
07-05-07 UBS Nominees Pty Ltd and its related bodies corporate -- 5.36 -- 
26-04-07 Challenger Financial Services Group -- 5.50 -- 
17-04-07 The Capital Group Companies, Inc. -- 5.09 -- 
05-04-07 Macquarie Bank Limited -- 5.65 --


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## Beej (9 July 2007)

Hi - first post here for me after a long time lurking, but I have an interest in this stock.

I thought this one looked to be on a good upward trajectory leading up to their first results announcement on Aug 23rd, however, the last couple of days have seen a bit of a sell-off (on lightish volume though, seems to be a lack of demand on the buy-side?), and the price has fallen accordingly back to early/mid May levels (currently at $2.13/$2.14). This is also on the back of UBS Nominees Pty Ltd having now increased their holding to 6.5%?

Anyone got any idea what might be going on? Maybe just some light profit taking at the start of the financial year? Is everyone still bullish in this company? 

Cheers,

Beej


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## greenfs (24 July 2007)

This share was admitted into ASX100 this month and on the strength of this I immediately included it as a long-term investment stock, rather than as a trading position stock. 

It supports the mining sector with all appropriate services and appears to be in the midst of a very strong break out if you could call it that given the stock has only been listed for a relatively short time frame.

No doubt strong interest from all fund managers who wish to build an appropriate percentage interest in the stock is having an impact.

Do other subscribers have an opinion based upon the chart or is the time fram simply too short?


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## reece55 (24 July 2007)

As an accountant in the exploration mining sector, EVERYONE has to use these guys because no one has the drilling equipment like these guys do. And boy do they make a mint out of it, their bills are SOOOOOOOOO much....... I've had to review them!!!

Fundamentally, looking a bit expensive (not that this is how I trade), but honestly they have a strangle hold in the sector where it is just ridiculously hard to find drill rigs.

What can I say, I bought this one on the opening day and so did my boss - we haven't looked back!!!

Cheers


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## ta2693 (24 July 2007)

I think big guys are already in, we are a little bit late. I prefer to stand out, even if it is the kind of stock with unique competitive edge. 

Shareholders buying
Date Shareholder Previous % New % Shares Traded
07-05-07 UBS Nominees Pty Ltd and its related bodies corporate -- 5.36 --
26-04-07 Challenger Financial Services Group -- 5.50 --
17-04-07 The Capital Group Companies, Inc. -- 5.09 --
05-04-07 Macquarie Bank Limited -- 5.65 --


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## aosleung (26 July 2007)

Good article in the AFR on both BLY and ASL today.  Worth a look!  Given that the mining boom, it's obvious that these companies will get most the benefit.  When reading up on oil stocks and geothermal stock news, it appears drill rigs are in demand and BLY is a vertically integrated company (ie. supply equipment and provides a drilling service)! The also don't have the risk of not being able to find the stuff underground becuase they are there to provide a service and will get their fee regardless.  On the other hand, a lot of companies will be moving towards development (from exploration) so should see BLY and ASL revenues go up even further thus reducing PE ratios.

ASL compared to BLY looks cheap with a current PE of 14x (compared to sector PE of 20x) even though it's share price has gone up 20% on the back of a takeover announcement.  Given the low PE, I believe the acquirer (not yet known) can potentially pay more for it (base on PE alone) esp. if it's a buyer within the same industry hence ASL should be a good one to hold!

BLY has performed strongly and is a much larger company with good coverage which is the reason I like this stock.  In volatile markets like now, I think information and transparency is very important.


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## greenfs (19 October 2007)

This little baby has had a kick along in recent times. I also notice in Commsec that the overall participating stock recommendation is progressively moving from a Medium Buy to a Strong Buy consensus.

Here is the latest graph. Notice the strong volume and positive DMI with MACD also improving. This one might just be about to add about 10% to the sp.


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## engo (15 February 2008)

Ok, anyone have an idea why BLY is getting hammered so hard, (ok I know the whole market is getting hit, but BLY seems to be getting hit a little bit harder than most, considering there has not been any announcements from BLY). 
In December it had a heap of strong buy recomendations from various brokers, now it seems to get hit a little harder than the market on most days.


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## josjes (15 February 2008)

engo said:


> Ok, anyone have an idea why BLY is getting hammered so hard, (ok I know the whole market is getting hit, but BLY seems to be getting hit a little bit harder than most, considering there has not been any announcements from BLY).
> In December it had a heap of strong buy recomendations from various brokers, now it seems to get hit a little harder than the market on most days.




Just coming back to earth, back in November, the commodity boom was predicted to keep going forever. Whereas now, global slowdown/US recession is being priced in. Don't worry , it's not just BLY, similar mining services company like Monadelphous (MND) and Campbell Bros (CPB) are also being hammered in the the range of 40-50% from top.


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## agro (22 February 2008)

Anyone know whether Macquirie has stopped shorting Boart because market sentiment looks as though it has returned with a recent reversal in sp?

or is it the demand for mining services amidst a commodity boom?


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## greenfs (17 June 2008)

I note that there has been some changes amongst the larger shareholders in recent times, which saw the sp under pressure

The latest uptrend with this sp looks encouraging and the next 2 or 3 days will be very interesting with IMO $2.60+ again a realistic outcome in the short term. This opinion is based upon significant candlestick presence over the past few business days (see below) no doubt triggered by the recent unscheduled profit guidance report by the board.

What do others think?


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## moolah (22 August 2008)

Seems to be unloved. I don't know what information is out there to explain why this is doing so badly. It's in the right area. Anyone know?


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## engo (1 November 2008)

I noticed Paul Brunner director and ceo bought $1.7 million worth of BLY last week, but the share price is still getting smashed. So what do people think, time to buy or run for the hills?


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## DowJones (1 November 2008)

engo said:


> I noticed Paul Brunner director and ceo bought $1.7 million worth of BLY last week, but the share price is still getting smashed. So what do people think, time to buy or run for the hills?




I think its always been a BUY rating from many analysts from as far as I can remember, even when the SP was 2.40.

The only negative I can see is the debt to equity ratio, which stands at 300% +. In this debt sensitive market I think that doesnt sit well with investors.

Other good mining supports that have been smashed and have lower debt are Auscenco and Worley Parsons.


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## sammy84 (1 November 2008)

I held BLY for far too long because of the vast amount of BUY ratings that were still out there made me ignore my stop (Stupid!). Whilst it might be a good company, it has had its earning forecasts slashed in recent times and the debt levels are worrying in this market atmosphere.


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## Lachlan6 (2 November 2008)

This is one huge downfall of relying on 'consensus' ratings from brokers who fall in love with certain stocks. There looks to be no respite where BLY is concerned. The stock is locked in an aggressive wave (3) suggesting that any move higher should only come in the form of some form of congestion pattern probably a triangle and just be a small bounce before new lows are made again. There are quite a few similar looking stocks within the mining and resources sector. They have been sold off ruthlessly.


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## psychic (27 February 2009)

Time to bump this thread, plenty of action on BLY today.  I jumped in just before close with a small parcel at 9.1 cents, I hope I have the bottom


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## TheAbyss (27 February 2009)

psychic said:


> Time to bump this thread, plenty of action on BLY today.  I jumped in just before close with a small parcel at 9.1 cents, I hope I have the bottom




If you have found a bottom it will be a temporary one. These guys deoend on mining operations paying them for drilling services and the like  for explorations purposes etc. The resources downturn only really kicked in last quarter of 2008 so the balance sheet news is certain to be worse once the first half of 2009 is calculated.

Could be totally wrong.


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## psychic (28 February 2009)

Well at this stage I am in profit from the time of purchase so I am looking at the potental upside rather than downside.  A swing to the upside is much more possible given its oversold VWAP of 10.27


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## surfingman (28 February 2009)

Just putting it out there, would Boart be a possible target for the likes of a large miner? 

The has been strong consolidation in many other areas but not yet mining services.


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## tigerboi (28 February 2009)

*Re: BLY-profit slump due in 2009*



TheAbyss said:


> If you have found a bottom it will be a temporary one. These guys deoend on mining operations paying them for drilling services and the like for explorations purposes etc. The resources downturn only really kicked in last quarter of 2008 so the balance sheet news is certain to be worse once the first half of 2009 is calculated.
> 
> Could be totally wrong.




id say your spot on there abyss...profit at the top was $157m on revenues of $1.8b giving about 9%,they have 1.5b shares & i think debt of $558m due in the 2ndQ 2010.bad time to be owing that much.

next year would most likely see profit tumble to below $100m,so buying now is not recommended i can see how stop the clock/kb sorry psychic? may think its the bottom but if you check out its chart you can see it was pumped 2 weeks before the anns then the rip back down.

i noticed that a big % of their rigs are in the us & none in europe imo it is a big chance of seeing 6c in the next few weeks or so,but i dont know alot about this company.

more chance of a merger than a takeover


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## psychic (1 March 2009)

6 cents within weeks in a bit of a downramp IMO.  Technically a rebound in share price over coming weeks is much more probable.


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## bigdog (1 March 2009)

The BLY 12 month high was $2.3900 with low on Friday of $0.0890 and closed at $0.0950.

The share price has tumbelled to the 1/26 of the 12 mth high!

I am very tempted to buy in on Monday!


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## Miner (1 March 2009)

Technically it is natural that with drastic reduction in exploration and mining volume the consumption of products manufactured by BLY will be very less.

Nonetheless it is unbelievable to see the price plunge on Friday inspite of reasonably good financial result 

Is there some hidden contract fail ?

Should Monday will see further down considering the sympathy with DJ fall on Friday ? 

Chartists - what your charts say about the movement of this stock ? 

Cheers


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## Aka (1 March 2009)

My take on BLY

1. would buy for  0.07 - .075
2. upgrade machnery - bad timeing ; now in the cost cutting mode because they sence there are togh time ahead!.
3. No final dividend , cash saving mode. Might not pay it next year as well (need to service large debt) .
4. As somebody mentioned effected byu global downturn.
5. Balance Sheet does not look nice. Loan - long term (80% of 806 mln USD maturity next year). next yar with slowing revenue and may be profit might be not easy to refinance.

Long term invstment  -  at lower price may be.  
Do not hold

Happy hunting


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## tigerboi (2 March 2009)

*Re: BLY-looks like it might see 6c today!*

gee looks like the 6c target might come about 2 weeks earlier than i thought?

smells like a cap raising to me...6c still a good target imo...

anyhow once the market knows kb/stop the clock/psychic buys in then it tanks...good system...tb


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## psychic (2 March 2009)

Lol, love your work t.b. your a master at this game, well done.  I will buy at 6 cents too


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## tigerboi (2 March 2009)

psychic said:


> Lol, love your work t.b. your a master at this game, well done. I will buy at 6 cents too




these days its a real waiting game & doing your solid research has never been so important...if you wait & dont rush in you will be rewarded but having said that i believe the all ords will zig zag till the end of the year possibly early next year...tb


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## TheAbyss (2 March 2009)

I wouldn't be so quick as to rush in at 6 cents when and if it gets there. 

Surely you would wait for some sort of bottom forming pattern first rather than pick a number and jump straight in?

Stocks need to level out then show some sort of incentive to buy in on their way up i would have thought?

The market is littered with stocks that look and probably are cheap but why buy now unless they show signs of recovering first?

The chart (see attached full company sp history)on BLY is in a downward spiral and there is no must buy taget that i can see as it is constantly making new lows. If you are after bargains at least find something that is turning around otherwise at best you will be parking your money for a period of time whilst it forms a base to grow from unless you believe it has some major news to cause an up spike?


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## tigerboi (3 March 2009)

*Re: BLY-COMM BANK REDUCES IVR TO 0%*

I think your talking of psyhic about the 6c buy?i didnt set a buy target for this as i said its a waiting game for at least the rest of the year & with the dow getting bashed up again this will surely get to around the 6c mark & as you point out best wait for a pattern to form.

The 78% of rigs in the us bly currently has leaves them at the mercy of the us economy,if they could diversify into europe & the sub continent with their work they may go ok,6c was just a rough estimate going on the $157m net profit this year with a possible fall back under $100m most likely.

i understand the rip down has been caused by comm bank calling in the margin loans by reducing the ivr from 60% to 0% so that would seem to be the reason...TB


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## joeyjoejoe (3 March 2009)

TheAbyss said:


> I wouldn't be so quick as to rush in at 6 cents when and if it gets there.
> 
> Surely you would wait for some sort of bottom forming pattern first rather than pick a number and jump straight in?
> 
> ...




what you say is all true.. but also consider this...... you only need the tail end of the graph to turn upwards in the slightest movement (on the long term graph) to make 100% return on your money.. by looking at that long term chart is easy to be scared away but im sure those here getting in are not in it for the long term (although i could be wrong)


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## trillionaire#1 (3 March 2009)

well i couldnt help myself and bought a small parcel at 6.8 cents today
SP strengthened during the arvo as buying side grew.

probably not a long term hold but i think margin calls drove the stock 
a few cents lower than it deserves?


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## tech/a (3 March 2009)

Hmmm

I had 2 of their staff apply for positions with our Company.
Word is they wont have theirs for long.

Cant say that makes me full of confidence.


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## kengaikl (11 March 2009)

I believe the SP is way under rated. Investors are comparing it to companies like CNP because BLY is also highly geared. But there is one difference, BLY is a service provider not an holding company like cnp. When there is asset deflation CNP has to write off asset values and make big losses not BLY.


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## oldblue (12 March 2009)

As far as weak balance sheets are concerned BLY takes some beating!

Equity of $152m at last balance date "supports" total liabilities of *$1.141b*!
Borrowings of USD585m due for re-financing in 1st quarter 2010.
I'm not surprised that SP is so weak given current credit market conditions.


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## doogie_goes_off (12 March 2009)

I'd say assets like drill rigs in a mining downtorn would be basically worthless and any 'service provision' would be drying up and quite cheap, maybe they shouldn't have paid so much money to try and monopolise local markets!


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## enigmatic (12 March 2009)

Just started watching this stock recently trying to get myself a list of shares to buy once the market finally returns to the bull market.. ( I know cant call it waiting till the 150-200MVA is breached havent decided.

Any how back to this share, when i first looked into it the company seemed like a good opportunity especially due to the SP however after looking over the books there debt is looking more and more as if it it will be to much for the company to handle. Unless things turn arround in the next 3-6months I see this one going only one way.

Still going to watch this see if something changes but with less and less work and that debt due date getting closer and closer I think standing back and waiting for a positive outcome might be the right choice for this High risk stock.


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## psychic (22 March 2009)

I bought a small parcel of BLY just before the close of trade on Friday, seems to me like a blue-chip bargain.  Hold for a a rebound over coming weeks


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## trillionaire#1 (27 March 2009)

a solid week for BLY , up 40%.

i had my finger on the sell button last week when she went down to 8.6 cents
report due out soon ,  and with some improvement in the mining sector of late
Boart may well lift itself a little further of the canvas.


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## Trader Paul (30 April 2009)

Hi folks,

BLY ... as requested, here's some astroanalysis on BLY, over the
next couple of months ..... 

        30042009 ... expecting negative news, soon.

   14-19052009 ... negative spotlight on BLY, triggered by 2 significant and 
                         negative time cycles, which should also bring more negative news. 

   28-29052009 ... minor time cycle

   10-19062009 ... 2 negative time cycles and more negative news ... ???
                           ..... this could be BIG ... !~!

   07-09072009 ... a significant and negative cycle here & looking for a low.

   17-20072009 ... 2 positive cycles and some good news expected here.      

   29-30072009 ... minor time cycle.

3107-03082008 ... negative news expected here.

More later.

have a great day

  paul



=====


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## happytown (30 April 2009)

recent market update (21/04) already providing negative news

some potentially negative news that may impact on them in the near term

*over 60% of drilling service revenue base derived from copper and iron ore - iron ore contract prices could be settled soon, some expect 40% drop, may impact number of rigs standing idle, let alone daily rig hire charges (the days of 10K a day for a UDR1000 just to park on site are rear view mirror material) irrespective of the majority of their clients being the majors (bhp culled a lot of their nickel rigs when the price dropped)

*the co looking to commence the "formal refinancing process in the next several weeks" regarding april 2010 debt maturity - will the credit market be amenable, let alone the potential for broker negative sentiment should the odd rumour waft around

*major shareholders have in the last week ceased to become substantial holders - yet still have more to offload, should they elect to, further stalling any sp recovery in the near term

like some other co's boarts chose to load up with debt in recent years for acquisitions and expansion 

since the beginning of the year trainee, cross and relief drillers have taken pay cuts to work as offsiders just to keep their jobs 

will be interesting to see if any of the above pans out and if it correlates to the astroanalysis

some vsa would be interesting

cheers


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## happytown (1 May 2009)

after relatively heavy selling off recently this stock may be reversing the trend, at least in the short term, the larger parcels in the last half hour have been accumulation not divestment 

time will tell

cheers


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## oldblue (1 May 2009)

happytown said:


> after relatively heavy selling off recently this stock may be reversing the trend, at least in the short term, the larger parcels in the last half hour have been accumulation not divestment
> 
> time will tell
> 
> cheers




My forty odd years of investing has taught me that one man's accumulation is often another man's divestment. I've always found it difficult to tell otherwise.


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## engo (2 May 2009)

Pala Investments has just become a substantial holder with 6.4%.

Looking at their website 

http://www.pala.com/index.html

and doing a bit of googling of them, I get the impression they might have big plans for Boart Longyear


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## Loose (13 May 2009)

Can someone please help me with chart analysis on Boart?

I'm looking at incredible charts and it's a bit messy

Thanks in advance

Loose


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## Hendrik (13 May 2009)

Loose said:


> Can someone please help me with chart analysis on Boart?
> 
> I'm looking at incredible charts and it's a bit messy
> 
> ...




I second this, although i tried to do some basic TA and there seems to be an upward trend occuring, based on daily charts and weekly charts (6month) the MACD is looking positive, and bollinger bands support the fact that its undervalued


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## happytown (15 May 2009)

Trader Paul said:


> ...
> 
> 14-19052009 ... negative spotlight on BLY, triggered by 2 significant and
> negative time cycles, which should also bring more negative news.
> ...




yet another substantial holder ceasing to be (re ann 14/05)

the chairman broached discussion of the big d-word in his address to s'holders on 11/05 (see ann)

concern over the possibility of breaching covenants

round-table discussions with bankers

cheers


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## YELNATS (27 May 2009)

Agentm said:


> good pick yellow nuts
> 
> i'll go lum for no other reason than its on my watchlist and adi is taken




Bly, picked them in the tipping comp 3 months running now. Yet to really improve, but I'm a patient geezer. 

Interested to know why you think it's a good pick.


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## happytown (5 June 2009)

boarty mcboarts to be removed from the s&p asx100 from *19/06*# and consequently up approx 17% today on good volume

possibly progressing well with debt discussions with banking syndicate

cheers 

#see trader paul's post above



> ...
> 
> 10-*1906*2009 ... 2 negative time cycles and more negative news ... ???
> ..... this could be BIG ... !~!
> ...


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## YELNATS (5 June 2009)

As one melbourne-based race-caller used to say, "where there's smoke there's blue cod". Significant rise today. We await further developments.


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## happytown (9 June 2009)

on the boartwalk ...

currently up approx 14% on the day 

perhaps the outlook for their drilling services and products is improving with every successful new raising by mining co's

cheers


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## happytown (10 June 2009)

mcboarts up solidly today, currently approx 15% @ .23, this has been a solid move up over approx the last week from .13

several substantial holders have unloaded their holdings over the last few months

the majority of their drilling contracts are with the majors

discussions with their banking syndicate re debts maturing in 2010 are ongoing

cheers


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## jbocker (12 June 2009)

Boarts dont know why the jump. Anyone have a theory on why the increase of late. Is there some of the big money starting to move into the market generally? Is there a June thing (end of tax year). Or is just market confidence improving, I just dont know.


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## happytown (12 June 2009)

you little boarty

currently up 15% today on countinued large volume

it's not every asx100 stock (at least for another week), that in the space of under a fortnight can return a profit of over 100%

in boart's case no news appears to be good news

cheers


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## jbocker (15 June 2009)

...still no news... and bly keeps going up today (25% at the moment)...

yep no news is good news alright.


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## GumbyLearner (19 June 2009)

Sold these guys a few days ago. Exited on decent profit. Cap raising these guys will need should be mammoth. JMO

DYOR


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## jbocker (20 June 2009)

Well picked GumbyL, Had my sell order a bit high and missed the boat...for now anyway. Are they cap raising?


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## happytown (10 July 2009)

ann out this morning regarding debt refinancing, progress being made slowly, with end of 2009 still the hoped-for date of completion



> Boart Longyear (ASX:BLY) announced  today that it *has formally mandated seven of its existing banks to act as joint mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners (“JMLABs”) to refinance and extend the Company’s existing credit facilities in a reduced amount. These facilities currently total US$850 million*. The financial institutions are Bank of America, N.A, National Australia Bank Limited, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc, BNP PARIBAS, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, HSBC Bank Australia Limited, and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited.
> 
> In connection with this mandate, the JMLABs and the Company have agreed to the terms of a refinancing and extension, including a reduced facility amount, extended tenure, increased pricing, and amended financial covenants. *While the execution of the mandate and term sheet establishes an agreed refinancing framework, completion remains subject to a number of requirements, conditions and approvals.* These include the sale of equity securities and/or junior debt obligations and credit approval by each of the JMLABs as well as the other participants in the bank syndicate. *Given such risks and uncertainties, the Company is not able to give any assurances as to when, or if, a refinancing and extension will be consummated. Consistent with its past public statements, the Company’s goal is to complete the refinancing or extension as soon as is practicable before the end of 2009*.
> 
> ...



cheers


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## trader10 (10 July 2009)

..."“Boart’s heading in the right direction,” said Craig Stranger, an analyst at Austock Securities Ltd. in Melbourne. “It looks like the banks are supportive of getting Boart through a pretty tough 2009.” Stranger upgraded his recommendation to “hold” from “sell” and raised the price target to 30 Australian cents from 20 cents. "......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aMB.aaX1u_P4


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## trader10 (11 July 2009)

*Boart shares soar on refinance deal*

Boart shares soar on refinance deal

Mining driller Boart Longyear says it has agreed with a syndicate of banks to refinance the company's credit facilities at a lower level than the current $US850 million ($1.1 billion).

But the conditions imposed on the deal make the chances of it succeeding unpredictable, Boart Longyear said in a statement this morning.

"Given such risks and uncertainties, the company is not able to give any assurances as to when, or if, a refinancing and extension will be consummated.''

Despite the uncertainties, Boart shares jumped 1.5 cents, or 6.3 per cent, to 25.5 cents.

"Boart's heading in the right direction,'' said Craig Stranger, an analyst at Austock Securities. "It looks like the banks are supportive of getting Boart through a pretty tough 2009.'' 


Mr Stranger upgraded his recommendation to "hold'' from "sell'' and raised the price target to 30 cents from 20 cents.

Boart, which has cut its workforce to decrease costs, wants to reduce debt to less than $US700 million by the end of the year from $US764 million at the start after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression damped demand for its services. 


Boart has $US585 million of debt maturing in April 2010, according to previously released statements from the company.

Boart said it had authorised seven banks to act as joint mandated lead arrangers and bookrunners (JMLABs) to refinance the facilities "in a reduced amount''.

The facilities currently total $US850 million.

The banks are Bank of America, National Australia Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, BNP Paribas, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, HSBC Bank Australia, and ANZ.

"While the execution of the mandate and term sheet establishes an agreed refinancing framework, completion remains subject to a number of requirements, conditions and approvals,'' Boart Longyear said.

These include the sale of equity securities and/or junior debt obligations and credit approval by each of the JMLABs as well as the other participants in the bank syndicate.

Boart Longyear said it wanted to complete the refinancing or extension of the facilities before the end of 2009.

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/boart-shares-soar-on-refinance-deal-20090710-dfa4.html

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...facilit-pd20090710-TSUJF?opendocument&src=rss


----------



## jbocker (12 July 2009)

*Re: Boart shares soar on refinance deal*



trader10 said:


> Boart shares soar on refinance deal...




I missed the "soar" bit in the article. Headlines can be so deceptive!
Defn Soar  ...To climb swiftly or powerfully.

BLY was well over 30c less than a month ago, on no news. 
Will they soar back to $2 that they were less than 12 months ago??

Hope they are right I hold these! Not a $2 I sold those in the nick of time by GOOD LUCK (I needed some cash at the time) and bought back in at 22.5c only to see them slide down to around 7c.


----------



## Annwn (12 July 2009)

BLY

Broken upwards from a decending triangle - these are usually reversals in an uptrend
Broke on strong vol, but closed lower than opened, a day of indecision, as for soaring  !!


----------



## trader10 (12 July 2009)

*FIN REVIEW weekend*

It's definetely a buy IMHO...... medium/long term she should definetely soar.....


..."By all reports,investment banks have been banging on the door in recent weeks amid speculation that the company is looking to cut ties with financial adviser Macquarie. The speculation proved true on Friday, with Merril Lynch and RBS appointed as Boart's new financial advisers"......



...."The company announced that seven of its banks had agreed to the terms of the refinancing and extension of existing credit facilities, including reducing the amount and amending the covenants in place.".....



..." Among the initiatives expected before the refinancing is put to bed is a large equity raising - expected in the $200 - $350 million range, possibly an accelerated pro-rata rights issue".....

http://www.afr.com/home/


----------



## jbocker (12 July 2009)

*Re: FIN REVIEW weekend*



trader10 said:


> It's definetely a buy IMHO...... medium/long term she should definetely soar.....




Thanks for the snippets Trader10, I agree with you and hope for the best. 
BLY, Big company, lots of assets, if it can manage its debt, it should prove a good investment. Good companies come out as great companies after managing difficult times and debt such as these.
They certainly have their challenges, and still a looong way to go I suspect.


----------



## ozbecool (13 July 2009)

*BLY - good company ?*



jbocker said:


> Thanks for the snippets Trader10, I agree with you and hope for the best.
> BLY, Big company, lots of assets, if it can manage its debt, it should prove a good investment. Good companies come out as great companies after managing difficult times and debt such as these.
> They certainly have their challenges, and still a looong way to go I suspect.




It is a purely SPECULATIVE stock now. 
The management does not know how to run the company: they allowed to get into such a massive debt having such a strong engineering staff. The way they trade BLY shares (vide president's Feb08 5m sale on press-boosted profit announcements) shows that they do not care about the shareholders but about themselves only.
I spoke with an engineer who deals with them professionally and he said that they waste a lot of money in poor tools / facilities management. 

They could have been earning 3-4 times more if they knew how to cut costs / wastage. But the only way they know how to cut costs is ... firing staff. Truly you need full board of MBA guys to do that ...


----------



## jbocker (13 July 2009)

*Re: BLY - good company ?*



ozbecool said:


> It is a purely SPECULATIVE stock now.
> ...




Cheers Ozbecool. Thanks for the insight. Did the rest of the board flog their shares at the same time? Feb 08 was not an optimum time looking at their prices around that time. (But certainly massively better than the price 6 months later!!)

Well their opportunity to become a notable company is very much before them. Need to keep a closer look on these guys. 

The board members have to announce to the market when they buy and sell, dont they? I admit not paying overly too much attention to some of the garbled announcements, and is this is the only (best) way to determine the boards activity with respect to their holding? Forgive my dumb questions.


----------



## Donga (14 July 2009)

*Re: BLY - good company ?*




> It is a purely SPECULATIVE stock now...



 
Yeah expect it will go to 50c and beyond or fail. If we get thru this reporting season OK I'm punting on the former based on exploration resuming to comfortable levels before these guys refinance. EPS in '08 10.4c and in '07 5.4c so the stock has a way to go even if diluted from the capital raising mix.


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## mrluva (28 July 2009)

What's happening with BLY. seems its not moving at all. Its been sitting at around $24 all through the rally


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## jbocker (2 August 2009)

Theres was some movement I see, 18% up at end of day 100MM vol, is this because the market was a little upbeat perhaps? (I wasnt watching on Friday). Maybe there is some news expected...
Any ideas?


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## Donga (3 August 2009)

Expect bigger funds have started getting back into BLY. The general mood that we're over the worse of the GFC and increased mining activities should convert to higher revenue and less resistance to refinancing. 

They earn good money, as long as they are financial. While the current mood remains BLY should outperform the market given the beating they took last year. Beware the double dip though. For what it's worth I think the market is just moving to a more sensible level after re-evaluating the doomsday assessments. Holding at average 22.5c for the long haul.


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## Donga (6 August 2009)

Ann today UBS increased their stake by 1.1% to just over 10% in buying 16.5m shares lately. Volumes have been strong and more buyers than sellers for a while now. Stock up 40% since July 29. Wonder whether it's more confidence in mining activity recovery or impending news on finance restructuring, probably a bit of both. It's all good and holding for the long haul at 22.5c


----------



## pan (12 August 2009)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25916625-7582,00.html

article regarding the finances


----------



## Donga (12 August 2009)

Thanks pan, that might explain why they've held up today with most miners taking a breather. Be interesting how and when they will refinance. The article refers to salad days in 2007 of SP $2.71 - don't expect to see those for a very long while, if ever again. However I'm holding even after recent gains to 39.5c on the basis mining will continue to recover along with global demand. I don't have the time or temperament be a trader


----------



## sidious (12 August 2009)

Has anybody here ever thought about the debts of BLY? If so, did you still buy? If so, have you gotten worried?


----------



## Donga (13 August 2009)

Yes and the debt issue is a race against time: GFC & mining recovery -> BLY SP recovery -> less pain to refinance is my simplistic view. Not sure what the dilution will do though expect to contribute in share offering when it comes. Was attracted to earlier low SP given their EPS in '07 & 08 and evident recovery for miners. I'm still learning though


----------



## jbocker (18 August 2009)

Well the capital raising has been announced yesterday. I confess to being somewhat uneducated in these matters, but the overall deal to me seems somewhat complex.
- An entitlement offer 1 for 1 @ 27c
- Unconditional Share Placement to Professional and Sophisticated investors (guess they are not talking to me!)
- Conditional Share Placement to Professional and Sophisticated investors (to be approved by share holders up to $15K limit). 
All designed to pay off their debt. Tading halted till Thurs 20th and last traded at 44c.

In the scheme of things how does this rate amongst other capital raisings by other companys in recent times?? Is it complex or pretty standard.

I hold some of these (at 22.5c) having bought and sold in the days of ~$2 after the float.


----------



## Donga (18 August 2009)

Wish I knew  My holdings also average 22.5c and will probably wait until the dust settles after a few days of people buying and selling for all sorts of reasons. Depending on how many you have and other opportunities, you might want to sell a few at some time to pay for your entitlement. Longer term expect this stock will have a multiplier effect, north or south, depending on how the recovery pans out, especially for miners. Of course DYOR and best of luck


----------



## fureien (19 August 2009)

wow sp seems to have tanked a bit too fast in my opinion

i bought in at 41.5 cents and was sitting happily when it was 44 cents

i didnt sell and its now 34 cents -_- this has happened to me one too many times the past 3 months

capital raising seems only beneficial for ppl who get in late after the announcement. they get to buyin at the sp after it tanks and avergae down further. whereas shareholders get screwed over.

now i have no choice but to take up the entitlement to average down.
does any1 have any idea when the settlement date is? its not that 24th septermber date is it. because thats way to damn long and risky to wait for your entitlement. sp might have tanked several times before then


also my broker is IB, i heard that i have to contact them to participate in capital raisings correct? Or will BLY send me a letter regardless?


----------



## ausbronc (19 August 2009)

Yeh this is my first ever capital raising experience and i bought in at 0.405c. If i want to see a profit in the futrue does that pretty much mean i have to take on the discount share price of 0.27c, or can i hold onto my shares at 0.405 and expect it to go back up in the future. as a rookie im only looking for some opinions on what to do so any advice would be great


----------



## YELNATS (19 August 2009)

fureien said:


> capital raising seems only beneficial for ppl who get in late after the announcement. they get to buyin at the sp after it tanks and avergae down further. whereas shareholders get screwed over.




Don't know about that. Currently selling at 34c or above. You could sell at that price and use the funds to take up the 27c offer and make a 26% gain.

Assuming of course that you think the longer term sp will hold at 27c or above.


----------



## fureien (20 August 2009)

are you allowed to sell your holdings before you are allocated your entitlement?

the sp tanked another 8% today sigh. gmg sp went up instead of down why is this tanking so hard.

also how do i take up the entitlment offer anyway? as i mentioned i am with IB, i have to go through my broker as i wont be sent any documents correct?


----------



## skc (20 August 2009)

fureien said:


> are you allowed to sell your holdings before you are allocated your entitlement?
> 
> the sp tanked another 8% today sigh. gmg sp went up instead of down why is this tanking so hard.
> 
> also how do i take up the entitlment offer anyway? as i mentioned i am with IB, i have to go through my broker as i wont be sent any documents correct?




Use the IB ticket system (login from their website) and inform them you want to participate in the BLY offer. Also ask them if you are able to sell your current holding yet. You won't be sent any documents through IB.

Note that the offer isn't officially open until tomorrow. Closing date 8 Sept, but you should leave a few days of buffer for IB to accept your instruction.

Also, you should notice on your IB statement that you now have something along the lines of BLYR which signifies the entitlement you own.


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## YELNATS (20 August 2009)

fureien said:


> are you allowed to sell your holdings before you are allocated your entitlement?




What I meant was that you could sell your *existing holdings*before you take up your new shares. Obviously you must have had an existing holding at close of business on August 17 to participate in the spp.

Note from the comapny's announcement,

Quote
The Company will ignore changes in shareholdings which occur after the commencement of the trading halt on 17 August 2009
Unquote


----------



## ausbronc (21 August 2009)

not a whole lot of incentive for taking up the 0.27c share offer now with today closing at 0.29c. what will happen if the market price drops below 0.27c? will they lower the discounted share or will it be a bust and no-one take up the offer?

also i am trading throuhg commsec. will BLY send me out a letter or will i have to contact commsec to find out how to take up the offer


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## fureien (23 August 2009)

argh good point. most likely bly will drop to 27c on monday. no point then.

i shudve exited earlier ...down 30% ><

i havent figured out how to set stop losses on IB's trader platform yet. its so complicated compared to etrade

i guess i have to ride this wave to the bottom and wait for it to go back up again


im sure the sp will recover again eventually. i havent been wrong yet when it comes to these things. just a frustrating waste of time tho


----------



## Donga (23 August 2009)

I shouldn't worry about BLY and expect it will will rebound nicely after the recapitalisastion once the traders have stopped shorting and the institutions start adding to their portfolio again. All this dependent upon China/mining not falling into a hole. As always DYOR but that debt overhang was killing them.


----------



## ausbronc (24 August 2009)

so what happens to the re-capitalisation process if no share holders take up the discounted share offer? is this bad for boart 

or 

does it not really have a negative effect on the whole capital raising process


----------



## Donga (24 August 2009)

Maybe wait until you get the paperwork and gauge then how BLY is travelling. For what its worth, BLY has been slowly recovering today from the earlier lows and buy/sell columns. Last week it was being heavily shorted and hopefully this will dry up before 27c is reached .


----------



## YELNATS (24 August 2009)

ausbronc said:


> so what happens to the re-capitalisation process if no share holders take up the discounted share offer? is this bad for boart
> 
> or
> 
> does it not really have a negative effect on the whole capital raising process




The institutional and retail componts of the offer are fully underwritten. That means they are guaranteed to raise the full US$341 million they require.

As per BLY's announcement,

Quote

The Entitlement Offer has two components:
•
An institutional entitlement offer, where offers have been made to qualifying institutional shareholders for them to apply for their pro-rata entitlement to raise approximately US$184 million (A$219 million)(the “Institutional Entitlement Offer”).
•
A retail entitlement offer, where an offer will be made to qualifying retail shareholders for them to apply for their pro-rata entitlement to raise approximately US$157 million (A$187 million) (the “Retail Entitlement Offer”).

The Entitlement Offer is fully underwritten and will raise approximately US$341 million.

Unquote.

However, I would think they will be more successful on the institutional side of the offer compared to the retail side, though.

PS. I've had a great run with BLY, so currently I have sold down most of my holdings and am waiting to see if it will be worthwhile taking up the 27c offer.


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## ausbronc (24 August 2009)

Hey thanks for the help. im considering holding my shares at 0.405 and trying to average down and try to get a few more shares while the price is low. ill see how this goes but hopefully things will start to turn around soon


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## fureien (24 August 2009)

After considering the facts, ive decided that BLY should recover over the longer term (after this raising), ive concluded that despite buying at a ridiculously high price, im gunna stick with it a bit longer. Ive sent IB a ticket to take up the entitlement offer so i can average down a bit. It should put me at an average entry price of 35 cents, which i think is a target that the market should easily rally back up to. Fingers crossed that the SP holds above the 27cents price. If it doesnt ill just keep averaging down... Ive got plenty of spare capital anyway.

Ive been watching BLY for several months and kicked myself several times each time it broke out, so its about time i did something lol


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## Ferret (24 August 2009)

I'm also tempted to jump onto this with prices < 30c.  All the other raisings I've watched lately have ended up with the share price well above the raising price once the dust has settled.

I also think a lot of risk goes out of BLY following this raising, and if the world economy continues to recover this company has plenty of blue sky.


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## Barndat (25 August 2009)

BLYR appeared in my IB portfolio today. Think I will wait a bit to see if they recover as the premium is only 0.5 cents on today's low (2.30 pm)


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## jbocker (26 August 2009)

Barndat said:


> BLYR appeared in my IB portfolio today. Think I will wait a bit to see if they recover as the premium is only 0.5 cents on today's low (2.30 pm)




I am going to wait too. I am not inspired buying in at the current price, could the market price go under 27c??
Nice the have the debt paid off, however does it mean loads more shares on the market, and has management given indication that it will manage its future debt better. Am I being harsh? I see this capital raising purely a bailout, I would feel much better if the raising was for some new expansion opportunity.


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## bernardp (26 August 2009)

It's been about two years since I originally posted, but I'm glad to see this thread has bought about some interest in this company! I remember purchasing BLY at around $1.90 just after it floated.... I got out at about $2 some time back.

Given the history of the float, I purchased some more BLY through my superfund and got in at 23 cents, to see it rise to low 40's.... and have just recently got out at 28 cents...  I couldn't help but agree with the previous poster on the capital raising being a bailout, I guess only time will tell.

Am happy to sit on the sidelines now... good luck to any holders.


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## Ferret (26 August 2009)

The way I see it, BLY had three main problems:
1. Way too much debt
2. Quite a bit of that debt due very soon
3. In a business that has been hit hard by the economic downturn

The captial raising was a bailout, but it does fix problems 1 & 2.  Now they need the recovery to continue to fix 3.

Anyway, I've taken a punt that that will happen and picked some up at 27.5c.  No idea where the price will go in the next few weeks, but I like the prospects after a month or so - provided the wheels don't fall off the recovery.


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## fureien (31 August 2009)

this is wierd. IB says my average price is 32 cents when im pretty sure i bought when it was 41 cents. or did they factor in my entitlement before i even received it? number of units held hasnt changed


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## sall123 (31 August 2009)

dont know why anyone would want ot buy the SPP its at .27 already. got this share for a $1


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## fureien (31 August 2009)

sall123 said:


> dont know why anyone would want ot buy the SPP its at .27 already. got this share for a $1




because theres plenty of support and it bounced up to 30 cents today

why on earth would u keep holding when ur average is $1


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## ausbronc (1 September 2009)

hmm i think im going to hold out as long as i can before taking up the share entitlement. I hope the price starts to get back above 30c this week so it will make it more attractive to take it up before the 8th of sept


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## mattyhammer (2 September 2009)

fureien said:


> this is wierd. IB says my average price is 32 cents when im pretty sure i bought when it was 41 cents. or did they factor in my entitlement before i even received it? number of units held hasnt changed




It's not about whether you took the offer or not, the price was averaged down due to the extra shares shoved into the market at a reduced price. So as far as the shareprice is concerned it have never reached 41c in recent times. I was confused too...!!! If you take up the offer, you will still get your shares at 27c which isn't worth much at the moment considering the shareprice is hovering around 27.5c today.


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## fureien (7 September 2009)

i noe wat dilution is, im just saying i bought it during the highs, a few days before the trading halt. Look at the charts for BLY where the trading halt begain. it was above 40 cents, which is when i bought. Then it plummetted. But it says my average buyin is 30 something, which has me confused cause i havent averaged down yet


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## jbocker (7 September 2009)

Well. I am not taking up the offer. So thats probably a good sign that they should go nuts 

But to counter that, I have exposure to this company already.

cheers


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## ausbronc (8 September 2009)

I just registered my interest to take up full entitlement

My current holdings sit at .405 and i do not want to forfiet my position with BLY because i do think there is room for growth in a recovering market. Now that i have averaged down lets hope to see a jump in share price after this process is over


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## skyQuake (8 September 2009)

The underwriters will dump it soon enough once they get the retail shares.
Feels pretty heavy too.
Though a bit of the instos have shorted into it the placement awaiting their allotment.


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## suhm (10 September 2009)

Hi, can anyone help me here, with regards to the entitlement date for participation in the conditional placement SPP if approved at the egm, I thought it was during their trading halt 18 Aug 09? 

The statement they put out today has me a bit confused.


----------



## UMike (10 September 2009)

suhm said:


> Hi, can anyone help me here, with regards to the entitlement date for participation in the conditional placement SPP if approved at the egm, I thought it was during their trading halt 18 Aug 09?
> 
> The statement they put out today has me a bit confused.



Dude.
It closed on the 8th of September

If you want more you'll just have purchase them on market.


btw there was a shortfall of A$117.5 million. 

Lack of confidence by eliglbe holders perhaps.


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## suhm (10 September 2009)

Yeah that's what I thought but I read this today.

If shareholders approve the Conditional Placement, Boart Longyear intends to offer all eligible shareholders an opportunity to participate in a Share Purchase Plan (SPP). Further details of the SPP will be announced following the EGM.

and this from the completion of the institutional offer.

In addition, Boart Longyear intends to offer a Share Purchase Plan to eligible shareholders if Boart Longyear shareholders approve the Conditional Placement at the EGM expected to be held on Thursday, 24 September 2009.

Is the SPP the conditional placement or another round of cap raising details of which they will update on in the egm. I doubt it but I haven't been following this one for very long.

Edit: The shortfall actually got me interested as the overhang could give me a good entry point but if they have an SPP coming I only need to take a small position.


----------



## bernardp (22 September 2009)

There seems to be some interest again. Some interesting players are coming to the table if you read today's announcements...


----------



## Barndat (22 September 2009)

The volume is up again today I hope they're interested enough to push the share price a lot higher as I took up my allocation


----------



## blanker (22 September 2009)

I’ve increased my exposure to this stock now that debt between now & April 2012 has been managed. If another SPP is tabled soon then I’ll be taking more for sure.


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## jbocker (26 September 2009)

blanker said:


> I’ve increased my exposure to this stock now that debt between now & April 2012 has been managed. If another SPP is tabled soon then I’ll be taking more for sure.




Its now on the table. You can have $5K, $10K, or $15K worth at .27 (if you held shares on 24 Sep).
I feel like these guys have had their hand out more times than a street full of beggars, yet I dont read any good 'business' in the meantime.
Feeling jaded with this lot.
$0 from me.


----------



## Donga (26 September 2009)

jbocker said:


> Its now on the table. You can have $5K, $10K, or $15K worth at .27 (if you held shares on 24 Sep).
> I feel like these guys have had their hand out more times than a street full of beggars, yet I dont read any good 'business' in the meantime.
> Feeling jaded with this lot.
> $0 from me.




Patience JB, the news is out there in the form of the economic recovery and healthy pickup in mining exploration. Unless these guys screw up, and I know a couple of people in this thread have questioned their managment performance, they have a long way to climb relative to their earnings potential in a strong mining environment. I'm holding quite a lot for me, and will take up some of my entitlement this time now that the stock has begun to climb and the shorters should be less active


----------



## mrluva (26 September 2009)

It paid off nicely last time when it went up above 40c..I like this one,entered again at 30c and 27c...will buy some more in SPP.


----------



## giasing (28 September 2009)

hi guy,

Are there anyone know how the SPP works? when i make the payment to purchase the shares they issued. these shares which you purchase will directly transfer to your broker or not?????

because next few days i am going to purchase their SPP. but i dont know how does it work?


----------



## milothedog (28 September 2009)

An application will be sent by mail to all eligible holders.  

The announcement: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090925/pdf/31ky94fx34shwp.pdf


----------



## malayaplaya (28 September 2009)

giasing said:


> hi guy,
> 
> Are there anyone know how the SPP works? when i make the payment to purchase the shares they issued. these shares which you purchase will directly transfer to your broker or not?????
> 
> because next few days i am going to purchase their SPP. but i dont know how does it work?




hi you'll pay your 5/10/15k and they will go where you request them to go. I think when you get the application in the mail it will be clear.

I'm also contemplating this SPP.


----------



## fureien (29 September 2009)

could somebody post the details to the spp on here? im registered with IB so i dont think ill be getting any mail. Hell i didnt even noe there was a spp going on until i read this thread. the announcement says details are on teh website but i cudnt find any info.

mainly just want the last day to exercise ur options. will be going $15k for this one. already knee deep, so might as well dive all in


----------



## blanker (29 September 2009)

fureien said:


> could somebody post the details to the spp on here?




Um, the details can be found on the ASX website. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=BLY#headlines

I believe the SPP offer closes on 23 October, but you should check the ASX website to confirm.


----------



## fureien (30 September 2009)

oh they announced it today 28th of october which means  gotta notify IB by 21st. im gunna wait till the last moment to subscribe. see how the sp holds out first


----------



## skyQuake (30 September 2009)

fureien said:


> oh they announced it today 28th of october which means  gotta notify IB by 21st. im gunna wait till the last moment to subscribe. see how the sp holds out first




Check again, SPP closes  23rd Oct; Also IB requires 7 working days to process.
Though in reality they dun mind as long as its within 3 days, but better stick to the safe side


----------



## skc (30 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Check again, SPP closes  23rd Oct; Also IB requires 7 working days to process.
> Though in reality they dun mind as long as its within 3 days, but better stick to the safe side




Apply now. They don't take the cash until the close day or there abouts. Then cancel within 3 days if the price tank.


----------



## blanker (30 September 2009)

I'm waiting to the last possible moment as well. Would like to see the SP increase a little & hold before making a choice.


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## skyQuake (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> Apply now. They don't take the cash until the close day or there abouts. Then cancel within 3 days if the price tank.




Be very careful with this, it actually varies. I tried to cancel 1d before the CDU SPP and it didn't let me.


----------



## UMike (30 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Be very careful with this, it actually varies. I tried to cancel 1d before the CDU SPP and it didn't let me.



I highly doubt that any of them allow cancellations.


Wait till the last few days. It is not like it is first in best dressed. :


----------



## skc (30 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Be very careful with this, it actually varies. I tried to cancel 1d before the CDU SPP and it didn't let me.




Thanks. That's good to know. I cancelled 2 days out once and they let me. So hit and miss I see...

Anyway, SPP with IB is usually a huge disappointment when it comes to allocation anyway. Especially with a widely traded, well in the money stock like BLY.

There are at least 4 people here applying already!


----------



## skyQuake (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> Thanks. That's good to know. I cancelled 2 days out once and they let me. So hit and miss I see...
> 
> Anyway, SPP with IB is usually a huge disappointment when it comes to allocation anyway. Especially with a widely traded, well in the money stock like BLY.
> 
> There are at least 4 people here applying already!




Well thats true... Hmm maybe if i downramp BLY all you guys will get scared and won't apply...
---------------------------------------------------------------------

HAY GUYS I HERD ITS GOING BANKRUPT AND TEHRES BIG INSTOS SELLING SOON


----------



## gooner (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> Thanks. That's good to know. I cancelled 2 days out once and they let me. So hit and miss I see...
> 
> Anyway, SPP with IB is usually a huge disappointment when it comes to allocation anyway. Especially with a widely traded, well in the money stock like BLY.
> 
> There are at least 4 people here applying already!




You can make that at least 5. I'll be applying for the highest amount I can but will wait to the last day before pulling the BPAY trigger


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## skc (30 September 2009)

gooner said:


> You can make that at least 5. I'll be applying for the highest amount I can but will wait to the last day before pulling the BPAY trigger




BPay? I was talking about applying through IB which is further pro-rated than the normal SPP process



skyQuake said:


> Well thats true... Hmm maybe if i downramp BLY all you guys will get scared and won't apply...
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> HAY GUYS I HERD ITS GOING BANKRUPT AND TEHRES BIG INSTOS SELLING SOON




I heard these guys are so incompetent that their company name was actually a typo of Borat Longyear


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## skyQuake (30 September 2009)

skc said:


> I heard these guys are so incompetent that their company name was actually a typo of Borat Longyear



Wouldn't it be funny if ASF rumours spread like wildfire through the market, causing BLY's price to be hammered down, and thus no-one actually applies for the SPP on Oct 23rd


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## Donga (1 October 2009)

gooner said:


> You can make that at least 5. I'll be applying for the highest amount I can but will wait to the last day before pulling the BPAY trigger




I'm with you Gooner. Got spooked by the intos last time, though ended up buying half my entitlement at 28 cents just afterwards. This time will sell other holdings to take up the max. The fundamentals are just too compelling


----------



## SilverRanger (1 October 2009)

For those who had experience in SPP and IB, what is the actual process?
What I mean is, does IB take out the money out of your available funds on the offer close date and allot the shares and refund unused money (if there is scale back) later?
Or does IB deduct the exact amount (after scale back) on the date the shares are alloted to you?

With rights issue, it seems to do the latter


----------



## skyQuake (2 October 2009)

SilverRanger said:


> For those who had experience in SPP and IB, what is the actual process?
> What I mean is, does IB take out the money out of your available funds on the offer close date and allot the shares and refund unused money (if there is scale back) later?
> Or does IB deduct the exact amount (after scale back) on the date the shares are alloted to you?
> 
> With rights issue, it seems to do the latter




Exactly the same as rights. Even though they scaleback horribly (Which I hope they will get around the custodian model in the future), I like they way your funds are not tied up for a month.


----------



## Miro (8 October 2009)

I have an option to purchase up to 15k of shares at $0.27 which is 10% lower than the current price of $0.30 per share. The deadline is October 23rd.

I haven't been in such situation before. Is the price likely to drop if they raise too much money / sell too many shares? Or perhaps that's not their intention but I guess they can't control how many shares current holders buy, can they? The main capital raising is going to come from external investors, right?

The cost of capital raising is already included in the share price, are there any other factors that would push the share price higher / lower after finalising the process of capital raising?

Thank you.


----------



## UMike (8 October 2009)

Miro said:


> I have an option to purchase up to 15k of shares at $0.27 which is 10% lower than the current price of $0.30 per share. The deadline is October 23rd.
> 
> I haven't been in such situation before. Is the price likely to drop if they raise too much money / sell too many shares? Or perhaps that's not their intention but I guess they can't control how many shares current holders buy, can they? The main capital raising is going to come from external investors, right?
> 
> ...



The main capital raising has already been completed. This is only the shortfall.

If the SP remains around the 30c mark expect the offered amount to be scaled back.


----------



## skyQuake (8 October 2009)

UMike said:


> The main capital raising has already been completed. This is only the shortfall.
> 
> If the SP remains around the 30c mark expect the offered amount to be scaled back.




SPP as opposed to a shortfall; I've seen a fair few unprofitable SPPs get scaled back because it gets so oversubscribed.


----------



## Albi (23 October 2009)

Hi,
BLY is doing pretty good. I am quiet nervous because yesterday I transfer the money through BPAY.Will it reach there, will i  get my entitlement or not. I am very first time applying for such offers. Kindly please can any one explain this.
Thanks in advance. I bought the BLY first at .345 and sell it to get entitlement at .30 
Dont know what will happen? Do I need to contact them or I will get it simple.
Thanks in advance
Albi


----------



## vincent191 (23 October 2009)

Albi said:


> Hi,
> BLY is doing pretty good. I am quiet nervous because yesterday I transfer the money through BPAY.Will it reach there, will i  get my entitlement or not. I am very first time applying for such offers. Kindly please can any one explain this.
> Thanks in advance. I bought the BLY first at .345 and sell it to get entitlement at .30
> Dont know what will happen? Do I need to contact them or I will get it simple.
> ...




That's the risk you take when you leave things to the last minute.


----------



## milothedog (23 October 2009)

I have left most of my SPP BPay transfers until the final day and always got the allocation.  I would expect there should be no trouble with your transfer from yesterday.   Better go do mine now...wouldn't like to miss out


----------



## skc (23 October 2009)

milothedog said:


> I have left most of my SPP BPay transfers until the final day and always got the allocation.  I would expect there should be no trouble with your transfer from yesterday.   Better go do mine now...wouldn't like to miss out




Are you crazy? You still have some 5 hours before it is really last minute!!

I wouldn't get too excited with this SPP. It will most likely be scaled back just enough to pay for brokerage...


----------



## UMike (23 October 2009)

milothedog said:


> I have left most of my SPP BPay transfers until the final day and always got the allocation.  I would expect there should be no trouble with your transfer from yesterday.   Better go do mine now...wouldn't like to miss out



I always do mine the day before.... Just in case.

Albi. The instructions are quite clear on the form. With Bpay check your Bank acc. It'll update as soon as you do it.

Or else phone them with your inquiry


----------



## skyQuake (23 October 2009)

Depends on your sending institution for most Banks, the cutoff is 5:30PM.

If after that... well, you'll get your cheque back in the mail in around a month.


----------



## Albi (23 October 2009)

Thanks  whole heartedly for your advises. I checked the account and it is showing the transfer of money. I didnot did befor because I was thinking  that might not go down. I have just draft that it will be at .30c at least and in few weeks bounce back because financially BLY is improving. I would be able to cover some of my loss.
Once again thanks for all your advises. I really learn a lot from this forum and hats up for all those who devotedly do reasearch and post on forum. We all are greatful for those hardworking people.
Once again thanks
Albi


----------



## Donga (23 October 2009)

Spoke with BLY and KGL today about BPay timing as I also missed my comfort planning by a day. They were both very reassuring about the transfers being time stamped before 5pm. 

You ight wish to hold onto this one - got a lot of catching up to do given the last two months SPP stagnation while the miners have been surging. And guess who is going to be the big winner. Go you drill thing!


----------



## fureien (26 October 2009)

are you guys taking up your full allocations of $15000? even though it will most likely be scaled back.


----------



## gooner (26 October 2009)

fureien said:


> are you guys taking up your full allocations of $15000? even though it will most likely be scaled back.




You gotta be in it to win it.

I applied for my full $15,000 allocation.

Twice

Only hold $500 of shares already as went in just for the SPP


----------



## Julia (26 October 2009)

Donga said:


> I'm with you Gooner. Got spooked by the intos last time, though ended up buying half my entitlement at 28 cents just afterwards. This time will sell other holdings to take up the max. The fundamentals are just too compelling



Can you say what it is about the fundamentals that is so compelling?

Are you not at all concerned with the massive level of debt?


----------



## gooner (26 October 2009)

Julia said:


> Can you say what it is about the fundamentals that is so compelling?
> 
> Are you not at all concerned with the massive level of debt?




Julia

Know you asked the question of Donga so I will let him reply, fundamental wise.

For me, I'll probably be out as soon as the shares hit my trading accounts. I buy small holdings in companies that I believe will soon do capital raisings with a view to getting $15k in a SPP or extras under a normal underwrite and then selling out. Given they are always priced at a discount to market, there is always some profit there. Unless of course the market tanks between BPAY date and shares hitting trading account date, but this is really short term risk and price can go the other way meaning more profits.  As I'm not working at the moment, have plenty of time to research various companies, though I stay in ASX 300.


----------



## GumbyLearner (26 October 2009)

Julia said:


> Are you not at all concerned with the massive level of debt?




That is exactly what has kept me away from this one. 

They were cheap earlier this year, I traded a few a while back. But not I'm certainly not interested now

Notice also due to heavy debt-fueled M&A action in mining, that many global mining houses are geared to the hilt at the moment, take Rio as an example. 

Also, It makes you wonder what kind of momentum for drills and rigs there will be over the next couple of years.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/26/2724381.htm

*Mining debt to cut exploration, raise prices*

A report on the world's major mining companies warns that they are struggling under a wall of debt that could push commodity prices higher.

The global accounting firm Ernst and Young has found that the combined debt of the big resources companies is more than $US180 billion and that this means they will be concentrating more on making repayments than on looking for new supplies.

Consumers were not the only ones enjoying access to the cheap and easy credit which helped cause the global financial crisis - mining firms got in on the sugar rush too borrowing billions and billions of dollars to fund takeovers and mergers as commodity prices jumped to record highs.

According to Ernst and Young, net debt at the world's biggest miners jumped by one quarter to $US182 billion from 2003 to 2008.

"In fact the gearing levels of the sector, and when we looked at the top 65 global mining houses, had actually reached an all-time record rate of about 58 per cent gearing, but most of that expenditure was used to fund acquisitions," said Mike Elliott, Ernst and Young's global head of mining and metals.

"They were debt-fuelled acquisitions, as opposed to being used for major capital expansion or paying returns to shareholders."


----------



## Donga (26 October 2009)

Julia said:


> Can you say what it is about the fundamentals that is so compelling?
> 
> Are you not at all concerned with the massive level of debt?




Fundamentals based on EPS in 2008 before GFS (10c per share from memory) and mining boom crash which saw BLY go from $2.80 to 7c. Market thought BLY would go broke with debt. That has since been sorted with protracted SPP meaning twice as many shares and debt level now comfortable, so theoretically BLY SP could exceed $1 as mining activity recovers to 2007-2008 levels. I'd say we are well on the way going from Chinese demand and recent mining activity in past few months - seems everyone is drilling  

SP has been kept low in last two months by instos and even retail participants in SPP selling above 27c while awaiting their new allotments. 

Assuming US doesn't double dip, China continues their domestic consumption and BLY are well managed, SP could reach 40c once dust settles, 50c before Christmas and who knows in 2010. 

I also took up 2 X $15k  after playing the retail game with 50% of my holdings and see this as low risk, high potential gain but DYOR as I may be missing something


----------



## skc (27 October 2009)

Donga said:


> I also took up 2 X $15k  after playing the retail game with 50% of my holdings and see this as low risk, high potential gain but DYOR as I may be missing something




How do you take up 2 x $15? On your BPay form for SPP doesn't it normally says something like you are only allowed to apply max of 1 lot, even you may hold multiple holdings in different capacity?


----------



## Donga (27 October 2009)

skc said:


> How do you take up 2 x $15? On your BPay form for SPP doesn't it normally says something like you are only allowed to apply max of 1 lot, even you may hold multiple holdings in different capacity?




My wife usually buys all our shares and this time she let me buy some. Love is sharing the burden


----------



## gooner (27 October 2009)

Donga said:


> My wife usually buys all our shares and this time she let me buy some. Love is sharing the burden




Donga,

You are in exactly the same position as me Donga

If I had a SMSF, potentially I would have been able to buy another 2 lots as well making a total of 4.

Hmmmm, should have thought of that earlier


----------



## UMike (27 October 2009)

SO with all these multiple holdings.... What is the general feeling about the scale back?


----------



## Donga (27 October 2009)

UMike said:


> SO with all these multiple holdings.... What is the general feeling about the scale back?




We don't know yet and nothing we can do about any scale back, which is why I sold half my holdings not all. Hopefully I'll end up with 50% more than previously. Also bought a small package for my two sons who have yet to be interested overly in ASX. Ceased the modest monthly deposit into their managed funds for when they're ready to take on Aussie real estate and bought a small parcel of my three bullish stocks over the next 2-3 years being BLY, ROG and the somewhat more speculative MMR. Hope the package does better than the First State managed fund


----------



## carlwilk (27 October 2009)

*Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts*

Like Ronny and Lukeaye, I jumped onto the BLY bandwagon after its second consecutive up day after a long period of sideways consolidation with quite strong support and resistance. Using Fibonacci projections based on previous spikes I was looking for a rise somewhere between 42c and 45c but this may have just been wishful thinking. 

We have now had our second down day from the up days which is now starting to look like a pattern failure. The only consolation I have on this at the moment is that although the price is decreasing, the volume is also decreasing, indicating to me there is not much strength in this downward movement. This second down day however has broken through some longer term price support and also broken through the ascending triangle pattern. 

MACD shows almost nothing but a little bump so its hard to get anything useful from this. 

Any thoughts on future movements of this?

(tried to post chart but failed because Ive posted on ASF less than 5 times)


----------



## lukeaye (27 October 2009)

*Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts*

Hi Carlwik,

price action seems to be very inconclusive at this stage. It may very well go down, but may very well go up. Sick of hearing that?

The bottom line is, a high probabilty move has been identified, we obviosuly have an increase in interest in the stock, whether it breaks up or down is unclear at this stage. Momentum does favour the upside still however. I wouldnt be to worried at a few down days.

If im wrong though, and it moves down, which is a real possibilty, the amount i lose does not worry me a great deal, if im right the return hopefully will be far greater.

So my suggestion (not advice) i dont give advice  hold the position, because getting scared and selling now may cut the potential gains you may have. I hope your not in a position where if your wrong you will lose the home or have no capital left? Do you own the physical stock or a CFD?


----------



## carlwilk (27 October 2009)

Hi Lukeaye,

Nice to hear someone elses thoughts on the price movement. Dont worry too much about the advice thing... I make my own trading decisions so Im not going to come hunting you down if you are wrong...     Id actually jumped onto BLY before I found references on ASF.

Seriously though, I have tightened my stops a little with the anticipation of a possible reversal but will not exit my position prematurely without some more confirmation. As you said, the potential gain is far greater than the potential loss. Out of interest, what SP target did you set and where did you set your stops? As previously mentioned, I had estimated at a little over 42c for the next upward price move and have set my stops at 27c. Not asking for advice as such... just nice to know what others are doing.

Its been about 3 years since I traded properly and am a little out of practice with my pattern recognition so am playing with the underlying equities at the moment. Limits my gains but most importantly limits my losses too. 

All the best.
Carl


----------



## gooner (27 October 2009)

Donga said:


> We don't know yet and nothing we can do about any scale back, which is why I sold half my holdings not all. Hopefully I'll end up with 50% more than previously. Also bought a small package for my two sons who have yet to be interested overly in ASX. Ceased the modest monthly deposit into their managed funds for when they're ready to take on Aussie real estate and bought a small parcel of my three bullish stocks over the next 2-3 years being BLY, ROG and the somewhat more speculative MMR. Hope the package does better than the First State managed fund




The SPP was well flagged before record date so plenty of people will have jumped on board to get the cheap SSP shares, including me. So I reckon a good chance of a scaleback


----------



## pedrod (29 October 2009)

Can some one please explain the reaso for the scale back after the SPP. I'm still learning. 
Are we looking for support at 27c due to the SSP?


----------



## skyQuake (29 October 2009)

pedrod said:


> Can some one please explain the reaso for the scale back after the SPP. I'm still learning.
> Are we looking for support at 27c due to the SSP?




If theres too many people on the register all applying for $15k, there won't be enought shares to go around. Thus the scaleback.
Support at 27c is possible but unlikely. Only the SPP guys will treat 27c with respect. Other holders have no reason to consider 27c significant.

Cheers


----------



## BSD (29 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Only the SPP guys will treat 27c with respect. Other holders have no reason to consider 27c significant.
> 
> Cheers




The wholesale offer was also done at 27c and it dwarfed the SPP.

While a lot of this stock is already OTD above 30c; a massive portion of the register will be taking 27c very seriously

That all said, now without the fear of debt, many would be keen to fill boots again on any retail panic below 27c

Metals are worth exploring-for again and miners have raised funds to cover the bills

Mad to be stopped out here at 27c before selling others I would assume


----------



## skyQuake (29 October 2009)

BSD said:


> The wholesale offer was also done at 27c and it dwarfed the SPP.
> 
> While a lot of this stock is already OTD above 30c; a massive portion of the register will be taking 27c very seriously
> 
> ...




Good point forgot about the instos. Also it bounced off 26.5 many times so those levels would be key.


----------



## SilverRanger (31 October 2009)

Got the following message from IB today:

"Please be informed that IB cannot participate in this event due to the fact that IB is a US company. Please know the share registry of the event has placed restrictions on IB, a US company, regardless of where our customers are domiciled.

You will receive the refund of the unsuccessful application soon." 

Well, IB is an US company, but Fortis is an ASX registered broker....


----------



## skc (31 October 2009)

SilverRanger said:


> Got the following message from IB today:
> 
> "Please be informed that IB cannot participate in this event due to the fact that IB is a US company. Please know the share registry of the event has placed restrictions on IB, a US company, regardless of where our customers are domiciled.
> 
> ...




With share price as low as 27.5c yesterday... possibly a blessing in disguise?

As I said on another thread.  It annoyed me a great deal that they took money out of the account before they check the validity of their participation.


----------



## gooner (31 October 2009)

skc said:


> With share price as low as 27.5c yesterday... possibly a blessing in disguise?
> 
> As I said on another thread.  It annoyed me a great deal that they took money out of the account before they check the validity of their participation.




Yeh - my SPP punt looks as though it will come neutral on Monday rather than profitable. Might pick up 0.5cent if I am lucky.


----------



## UMike (2 November 2009)

Well I got 65% of what I asked for.

Now, hopefully with all this Capital rasing completed, the SP can now rise.


----------



## Albi (2 November 2009)

I havenot got any news from BLY though today is the date of allotment. Do they have some othe system? Can any explain. I transferred the money using bpay on 22/10/09. My bank account shows the money is taken.


----------



## skyQuake (2 November 2009)

Albi said:


> I havenot got any news from BLY though today is the date of allotment. Do they have some othe system? Can any explain. I transferred the money using bpay on 22/10/09. My bank account shows the money is taken.




Check ur brokerage acct. Should be there.
Alternately, if you did you bpay after 5:30pm on the 22nd, then it would be too late. You should receive a cheque in the mail in about a week.


----------



## Albi (2 November 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Check ur brokerage acct. Should be there.
> Alternately, if you did you bpay after 5:30pm on the 22nd, then it would be too late. You should receive a cheque in the mail in about a week.




 I paid at 10:30 in the morning on 22nd. I have an account on comsec and it is not showing in my portfolio. Tomorrow I will check with them


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## skuld (2 November 2009)

Albi said:


> I paid at 10:30 in the morning on 22nd. I have an account on comsec and it is not showing in my portfolio. Tomorrow I will check with them




Probably will take a couple of days to appear on your comsec portfolio. Check your portfolio on linkmarketservices.com.au website. I got 65% of the smallest parcel as well.


----------



## Albi (2 November 2009)

skuld said:


> Probably will take a couple of days to appear on your comsec portfolio. Check your portfolio on linkmarketservices.com.au website. I got 65% of the smallest parcel as well.




Thanks Skuld. I checked it and you are right it is showing linkmarketservices. I also got a small parcel. When I will get the remaining money? I am thinking to buy more if it falls.


----------



## Doris (3 November 2009)

giasing said:


> hi guy,
> 
> Are there anyone know how the SPP works? when i make the payment to purchase the shares they issued. these shares which you purchase will directly transfer to your broker or not?????
> 
> because next few days i am going to purchase their SPP. but i dont know how does it work?




I didn't read this thread until just now.  
A few folk had queries they were concerned with.  FYI in future:

At the top of your SPP Application Form... right hand side (addresses etc) is their phone number: 1800 781 633.

You could have called them (BLY) any time for information:

Before closing date:
- can I make a second application although the first is now done?   (Yes - same entitlement number)

After allotment date:
- I have only 65% of my application.  Where does my balance go? (your normal trading account)

Always pay the day before!
Great patience and work still abounds on ASF.  Top site.


----------



## skyQuake (3 November 2009)

Doris said:


> After allotment date:
> - I have only 65% of my application.  Where does my balance go? (your normal trading account)




Just like to point out that unless you have done this through your broker, ie. you bpay directly; more often than not it'll be returned via cheque a week after allotment


----------



## UMike (3 November 2009)

Doris said:


> Before closing date:
> - can I make a second application although the first is now done?   (Yes - same entitlement number)



 Are you sure about this. I am pretty certain that only one maximum parcel can be applied for. I am reading the "Share Purchase Plan - Despatch of Documents" as I type.



Doris said:


> I didn't read this thread until just now.
> A few folk had queries they were concerned with.  FYI in future:
> 
> At the top of your SPP Application Form... right hand side (addresses etc) is their phone number: 1800 781 633.
> ...



 Reply #147 gave the same sage advice.

If you do have any query phone the responsible entity. Advice from a forum may lead you up the wrong path, even top forums


----------



## Doris (4 November 2009)

UMike said:


> Are you sure about this. I am pretty certain that only one maximum parcel can be applied for. I am reading the "Share Purchase Plan - Despatch of Documents" as I type.
> 
> Reply #147 gave the same sage advice.
> 
> If you do have any query phone the responsible entity. Advice from a forum may lead you up the wrong path, even top forums




Did you mean 'only one parcel'? 

This is why I phoned them to ensure 2 parcels *below the maximum* $15k was feasible.

You could have bought $5k one week and $10k the next... 
But the total maximum you could apply for was $15k

I applied for $5k on Wednesday and then decided on Thursday that I wanted to apply for another $5k.  
The girl said this was fine, just use the same entitlement number.  Worked out!

I read posts "asking for info" but didn't see the one that referred to the 1300 number on the application form. The plethora of offers coming in the mail each day are so repetitive, setting you up for when the actual forms arrive and can get down to business. 
ciao


----------



## gooner (4 November 2009)

Just got my money back from the scaleback of the SPP - landed in my bank account in the last few hours. Pretty quick and much better than archaic GMG who sent me a cheque


----------



## skyQuake (4 November 2009)

gooner said:


> Just got my money back from the scaleback of the SPP - landed in my bank account in the last few hours. Pretty quick and much better than archaic GMG who sent me a cheque




Was this because you updated your details on computershare? The cheque in mail is really annoying and slow.


----------



## gooner (4 November 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Was this because you updated your details on computershare? The cheque in mail is really annoying and slow.




Yes, I gave BLY my account details for automatic crediting of dividends. But they also sent the SPP refund money to the same account. Agree cheques are a pain.


----------



## fureien (5 November 2009)

how much did it get scaled back. i ended up not applying because IB got rejected because they are american based. That was so weird


----------



## gooner (5 November 2009)

fureien said:


> how much did it get scaled back. i ended up not applying because IB got rejected because they are american based. That was so weird




I got just under $10k worth after applying for $15k worth. So scaleback was about one-third. Did not matter in the end as have traded at 27cents this week anyway which was offer price


----------



## kkyyoo (9 November 2009)

Hi

I haven't follow this stock for a while since the recession, can anyone summarised how many capital raising that they have done eversince? (Including @ what price and how many units were issued)

thank you


----------



## fureien (9 November 2009)

gooner said:


> I got just under $10k worth after applying for $15k worth. So scaleback was about one-third. Did not matter in the end as have traded at 27cents this week anyway which was offer price




lol yeh very true. i missed out though, if i saw the big squeeze coming at the end of last week, i wouldve bought at 27 as well. but got a bit scared off by it hit 27 so damn fast.


----------



## ricee007 (15 November 2009)

So, does anyone have any thoughts on BLY long-term? Would it be fair to say BLY is leveraged to economic recovery? Do you expect BLY to be worth dollars in 3 years time? DO you expect BLY to never recover? Do expect dividends next year? 2012?


----------



## Donga (16 November 2009)

ricee007 said:


> So, does anyone have any thoughts on BLY long-term? Would it be fair to say BLY is leveraged to economic recovery? Do you expect BLY to be worth dollars in 3 years time? DO you expect BLY to never recover? Do expect dividends next year? 2012?




Yes, yes, expect over $1 in three years time, believe BLY is well on the road to recovery. Not sure about dividends next year and 2012 in the bag as long as no catastrophic global events that lead to stagnation in global economy and demand for more resource activity. 

IMO BLY has strong LT fundamentals assuming it is well managed  and DYOR.


----------



## Albi (7 January 2010)

Hi,
Bly is now .40 cent.   Is there any chance that it will go upside or not. There is no posting since a long time. I saw the recommandations on comsec, one for strong buy and one for moderate buy. Is it wise to hold it for next 6 months or betterr to come out.
Thanks in advance fo your opinions


----------



## Barndat (7 January 2010)

Albi said:


> Hi,
> Bly is now .40 cent.   Is there any chance that it will go upside or not. There is Is it wise to hold it for next 6 months or betterr to come out.




I don't know if it is wise to hold it or get out..... no-one does. The stock is moving up with good Vol so I will stay with it until it starts moving down with good Vol. Better to get out on the way down than get out too early on the way up..

Cheers

Peter


----------



## Albi (7 January 2010)

Barndat said:


> I don't know if it is wise to hold it or get out..... no-one does. The stock is moving up with good Vol so I will stay with it until it starts moving down with good Vol. Better to get out on the way down than get out too early on the way up..
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Peter




Thanks Peter. I am thinking, though i believe that it will go upward, but was a little bit nervous as I had bad experience with BBI and ELD. I am still holding ELD. Keeping a close eye on movement. 

Thanks once again.
ALbi


----------



## Albi (30 January 2010)

Hi BLY Holders
Where r you? There is no posting. It is going downward. There is no news except  full years results announcement.  Bly is  now in better position than few months back. But things are not moving in that direction.


----------



## iain (16 March 2010)

Im new to this site, and to shares and investing altogether... I have recently just bought shares in BLY and am curious to see what people's thoughts are (if any) as to the current shape of BLY and what the future may look like


----------



## takeprofits (17 March 2010)

I looked at BLY a while back. Didn't like the ROE, high debt and capial raising to pay down debt. 

Went with ASL instead, and have been very happy with their performance.

Having said that, BLY should benefit from the increased activity in the resources sector.


----------



## UMike (13 May 2010)

Whats up with BLY.

Every time I go for a Price/info I get this quote:


> We're sorry, your request cannot be processed
> 
> The security you have entered does not appear to be listed with the ASX. Please check that you have entered the correct code.



Yer reckon it might be just a glitch?


----------



## zacaxel1975 (13 May 2010)

UMike said:


> Whats up with BLY.
> 
> Every time I go for a Price/info I get this quote:
> 
> Yer reckon it might be just a glitch?




Hope so, I get the same error on Commsec and the ASX site. When you search BLY is there, but wont return any info.


----------



## bluey (13 May 2010)

Trading now as BLYDA.ax - and the SP is now ~$3.40...

Does anyone know what impact this will have on current shareholdings??


----------



## UMike (13 May 2010)

Yay.... This makes me an instant Millionare.


----------



## Ferret (13 May 2010)

My first ten bagger!

Yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!


----------



## Joe Blow (13 May 2010)

Some meaningful content would be nice you two. Any more padding out of posts in this thread will result in infractions. 

Please try and add some value to the thread. It's not that hard.


----------



## oldblue (13 May 2010)

A casual reader of this thread may not be aware that BLY shares have undergone a ten for one consolidation.

Doesn't add any value but a shareprice of $3.40 looks rather better than one of 34c!


----------



## Ferret (13 May 2010)

In seriousness though, I follow BLY fairly closely and hadn't heard anything about an upcoming share consolidation.  Did anyone see this announced?


----------



## TheAbyss (13 May 2010)

Ferret said:


> In seriousness though, I follow BLY fairly closely and hadn't heard anything about an upcoming share consolidation.  Did anyone see this announced?




It was resolution number 5 in the AGM. Check the release via the below link. Hard to credit that it went through without any dedicated announcements at all.

Personally i support it however a bit more attention from the PR department would have been nice.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100409/pdf/31ppt25vq9s9f2.pdf

ps. announcement just came out.


----------



## iain (13 May 2010)

I hold some BLY shares myself and am happy for the consolidation of shares. My commsec account shows that i have shares in BLY but the value is $0. I realise the code has changed but do i need to do anything to change over the shares or does it automatically do it?


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## UMike (13 May 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> It was resolution number 5 in the AGM. Check the release via the below link. Hard to credit that it went through without any dedicated announcements at all.
> 
> Personally i support it however a bit more attention from the PR department would have been nice.
> 
> ...



I did realise that the consolidation was to occur however I had no idea that the ASX code would be rendered invalid.

On further reading....

iain it appears that the BLY code will be reinstated on the 20th of MAY. (hope I read this correctly)
I think that your broker will sort it all out. Any other Qs and you'll have to join the que on the comsec help line


----------



## bluey (13 May 2010)

Yeah i own a parcel of BLY as well - but I don't remember receiving anything about the share consolidation - which is why it took me by surprise this morning...


----------



## Ferret (14 May 2010)

I'm not planning on buying or selling over the next two weeks, but curious how you do that.  

Like everyone else, my broker sponsored BLY holding shows up as invalid, but there is no BLYDA holding.  

How are people selling BLYDA if they don't show as holding these?


----------



## pixel (14 May 2010)

Ferret said:


> Like everyone else, my broker sponsored BLY holding shows up as invalid, but there is no BLYDA holding.
> 
> *How are people selling BLYDA if they don't show as holding these*?




They phone their Broker.
If he's any good, he'll still accept their trade orders at Online rates.

I trade through PariTrade, and they even sent me an email early yesterday, explaining what had happened, and gave me a phone number to call if I wanted to sell - I didn't.


----------



## Tukker (28 September 2010)

Showing a nice consistent run. 20 day moving average about to cross the 200. 1.4bil Market cap. New business likely after BP spill.  $0.67 -> $3.21 in just over a year. No serious scares that i can see technically.

Anyone care to comment?


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## Barndat (28 September 2010)

A symmetrical triangle forming on top of support at 3.18 with dropping Volume, that's good. Filled the gap down from May, might managed another leg up..


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## Barndat (14 October 2010)

Barndat said:


> A symmetrical triangle forming on top of support at 3.18 with dropping Volume, that's good. Filled the gap down from May, might managed another leg up..




So far so good... IMO 'ABC' target of BLY's second leg up equals 3.60 Tukker...


----------



## Tukker (9 November 2010)

Barndat said:


> So far so good... IMO 'ABC' target of BLY's second leg up equals 3.60 Tukker...





Looks like we had a good head start on this one Barndat. 
I've sold out now, i believe its going to retrace to 3.60 to smooth out the speculators.    

Looking to have a go at another gem with a similar set-up - NMS.  have a look for yourself, i am liking the technical setup. They do similar work as bly but younger and more aggressive, just hired all the better players in the market to.

Good luck to BLY holders


----------



## Ferret (14 December 2010)

BLY running very strongly this month.  I can't see any reason not to keep holding for the time being.


----------



## Julia (7 January 2011)

Can anyone clarify the dividend situation on BLY?

Etrade website - in the yield column - gives nothing, but DPS for 2011 is quoted as 9.7c

With thanks.


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## Ferret (7 January 2011)

Paid US 2.1c on 24 Oct 10.  This was converted to 2.29c Aust for Australian holders.  No dividend paid for the previous 6 months.


----------



## skc (7 January 2011)

Ferret said:


> Paid US 2.1c on 24 Oct 10.  This was converted to 2.29c Aust for Australian holders.  No dividend paid for the previous 6 months.




WebIress has 2.23c (Aussie $) with 35% franking. Paid 14/10/2010


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## Ferret (7 January 2011)

skc said:


> WebIress has 2.23c (Aussie $) with 35% franking. Paid 14/10/2010




Apologies, your info is correct.  Actually, the conversion to Aussie $ was 2.229c


----------



## Julia (7 January 2011)

With thanks, Ferret and skc.


----------



## prawn_86 (30 August 2012)

Shares down 28% today, does anyone know what has caused such a sell off? I'm assuming a very poor earnings report


----------



## DocK (30 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Shares down 28% today, does anyone know what has caused such a sell off? I'm assuming a very poor earnings report




From the announcement found on Commsec: 



> RESULTS SUMMARY
> First Half 2012:
> · Revenue US$1,099 million; up 15% versus first half 2011
> · EBITDA US$208 million; up 26% versus first half 2011
> ...





> OUTLOOK
> Revised Full Year 2012 Guidance:
> · Forecast revenue in the region of US$2 billion
> · Forecast EBITDA of approximately US$360 – US$390 million
> ...




It would appear that Mr Market doesn't like their guidance....


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## skc (30 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Shares down 28% today, does anyone know what has caused such a sell off? I'm assuming a very poor earnings report




Report's not terrible but the outlook was negative. This is one serious smackdown and dragged the whole section with it... the market really doesn't know what to think about the mining boom. When MND's boss said it's all good everything went up 6%. When BLY boss said it's in a state of flux, everything's down 8%.


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## tech/a (30 August 2012)

skc said:


> Report's not terrible but the outlook was negative. This is one serious smackdown and dragged the whole section with it... the market really doesn't know what to think about the mining boom. When MND's boss said it's all good everything went up 6%. When BLY boss said it's in a state of flux, everything's down 8%.




Its pretty clear.
If BHP has put a halt on Olympic Dam
then forget a resourse boom.
Aint going to happen. The knock on effect will be
very wide and very hard. From Government to
Associated suppliers to potential workers
to you and I.

Not a sector to be playing in in my opinion.


----------



## skc (30 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Its pretty clear.
> If BHP has put a halt on Olympic Dam
> then forget a resourse boom.
> Aint going to happen. The knock on effect will be
> ...




This is the most volatile sector second to mid-tier miners and gold. Certainly not for long term buy-and-hold investment, but it's the perfect sector to play in (if you know what you are doing). 

BLY has fallen way out of whack compared to other drilling peers like ASL and SWK. Look for short term reversal to the mean.

Fundamentally, it probably has some balance sheet pressure that hasn't surface yet. It will come out over the next week or so - potentially. On the price action - you'd think a low is in at $1.555 for the day, but I doubt there's going to be too much of a bounce - may be back to the open price..

And 3 weeks ago when it got whacked to $2.06 and we were all "woo-ing and arh-ing" ...


----------



## odds-on (30 August 2012)

skc said:


> Report's not terrible but the outlook was negative. This is one serious smackdown and dragged the whole section with it... the market really doesn't know what to think about the mining boom. When MND's boss said it's all good everything went up 6%. When BLY boss said it's in a state of flux, everything's down 8%.




I am going to read some old magazines - pretty sure that all the "experts" were of the opinion that this mining boom will be on for decades.

Applying my favourite saying "When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong", either:

1. The experts were wrong.

Or...

2. The experts are right but the market is being a little touchy to a boom that is unlikely to be linear.

Cheers

Oddson


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## notting (30 August 2012)

odds-on said:


> Applying my favourite saying "When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong"
> Oddson



Seems like everyone is thinking alike today!!!
China appears to be downramping.  I'll be looking for some take over activity coming a few months down the track.
Then some stimulus.  They have that capacity.


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## McLovin (30 August 2012)

odds-on said:


> I am going to read some old magazines - pretty sure that all the "experts" were of the opinion that this mining boom will be on for decades.
> 
> Applying my favourite saying "When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong", either:
> 
> ...




This chart is telling. This is a commodity that is still fairly abundant...

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240

Unless the laws of supply and demand cease to exist in the Pilbara, I think we all know what's coming.


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## odds-on (30 August 2012)

notting said:


> Seems like everyone is thinking alike today!!!
> China appears to be downramping.  I'll be looking for some take over activity coming a few months down the track.
> Then some stimulus.  They have that capacity.




Ha ha ha. I wonder if there will be a power law distribution to the failures / takeovers.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Its pretty clear.
> 
> 
> Not a sector to be playing in in my opinion.




Yep.  Time to look for a new sector.  Healthcare, gambling, alternative energy should come to the fore.


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## skc (30 August 2012)

I don't get it. If the mining boom is ok, why just sell down the drillers?

BLY -36%
IMD -18%
ASL -10%
SWK -8.5%
ALQ -8.5%

These guys are only trading at PE 5-8x. Sure earning will fall substantially if no one drill anything anymore, but why not go sell down WOR / MND with PE 15-18x?


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## odds-on (30 August 2012)

McLovin said:


> This chart is telling. This is a commodity that is still fairly abundant...
> 
> http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240
> 
> Unless the laws of supply and demand cease to exist in the Pilbara, I think we all know what's coming.




A big rebound as per copper in 2008 

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=copper&months=240


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## notting (30 August 2012)

skc said:


> I don't get it. If the mining boom is ok, why just sell down the drillers?
> 
> BLY -36%
> IMD -18%
> ...




Because Pros tend to play in the bigger boys?  Amatures and small time spectulators who love these kind of high beta stocks react to Chinese propoganda, and stocks are small enough to exagerate the moves?


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## McLovin (30 August 2012)

odds-on said:


> A big rebound as per copper in 2008
> 
> http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=copper&months=240




I'll sit on the other side of that bet.


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## skc (30 August 2012)

notting said:


> Because Pros tend to play in the bigger boys?  Amatures and small time spectulators who love these kind of high beta stocks react to Chinese propoganda, and stocks are small enough to exagerate the moves?




BLY, ALQ (aka Campell Brothers) and ASL are pretty big companies (>$B) - well until recently for BLY anyway.

I think it's more to do with balance sheet leverage and operational leverage. For WOR to respond to falling demand, they can just cut their headcount, pay some redundancies and they have trimmed their costs accordingly. BLY on the otherhand has a large fleet paid for with borrowed money so the cost base is more fixed.

Anyway - it closed on the low... unbelievable. I think I will read their report again.


----------



## notting (30 August 2012)

skc said:


> BLY
> Anyway - it closed on the low... unbelievable. I think I will read their report again.




Yeah.  I thought your 1.55 call was spot on!! Took a litte bite too.


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## So_Cynical (30 August 2012)

tech/a said:


> Its pretty clear.
> If BHP has put a halt on Olympic Dam
> then forget a resourse boom.
> Aint going to happen.




Really...so what's the recent track record of opinions and decisions made by BHP management?

Ravenswood?

Rio Merger?

Potash?

That US shale mob?

The random person that will be sitting next to me on the train tomorrow morning will have more credibility and economic insight than BHP management.

--------------

Mining boom not over, the boom has stopped booming for sure but the super cycle is in tact, as any 10 year chart will show (Iron, Coal, Nickel, Gold, name your mineral commodity) ~ what we will have over the next 3 or 5 months is an opportunity to get into some great stocks very cheaply, ready for the next run up...it wont be as good as late 2008 but it will be good...all IMO of course.


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## McLovin (31 August 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Really...so what's the recent track record of opinions and decisions made by BHP management?
> 
> Ravenswood?
> 
> ...




SC

In your opinion do you think the high prices for ore ($100+) are sustainable across the cycle?

Cheers


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## skc (31 August 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Really...so what's the recent track record of opinions and decisions made by BHP management?
> 
> Ravenswood?
> 
> ...




It doesn't matter that BHP management has a record of medium to large blunders. They are the ones controlling the capex decision and when they said they are cutting back on capex... it happens (whether they are right or wrong) and there is a material decrease in money going into mining.

Anyway... here's a thought.

BLY made $100m in half year has a market cap of ~$690m.
ASL made $110m in full year has a market cap of ~$940m.

Can ASL really keep growing while BLY shivers?


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## suhm (31 August 2012)

Only way I could explain this is that ppl think that they will need to raise capital again given the increase in debt with increased working capital.

I guess management has no credibility and they weren't able to manage cashflow when times were good so who knows.

Pretty solid selling all day so will be interesting to see where it ends up today


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## McCoy Pauley (31 August 2012)

The share prices of all the engineering firms are being smashed today.  BLY down 7.0% but it's not as bad as ASL (down 8.1% so far today) nor MACA (down 7.6% so far today).

Sentiment has really turned against the engineering firms and it could make for some good buying prices for the long-term investors.  But DYOR.


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## skc (31 August 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> The share prices of all the engineering firms are being smashed today.  BLY down 7.0% but it's not as bad as ASL (down 8.1% so far today) nor MACA (down 7.6% so far today).
> 
> Sentiment has really turned against the engineering firms and it could make for some good buying prices for the long-term investors.  But DYOR.




Two smaller firms that I follow.

DSB - record profit yesterday. Closed 80c yesterday. Today, down 4%, with 65c highest bid.

GCS - PE~4. 22% profit rise today. Down 11%.

Now can someone please go whack WOR down... I can't stand it being green AND has the highest PEx.


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## Intrinsic Value (31 August 2012)

skc said:


> Two smaller firms that I follow.
> 
> DSB - record profit yesterday. Closed 80c yesterday. Today, down 4%, with 65c highest bid.
> 
> ...





Add FGE to the list. Just posted record profit, no debt, plenty of cash. Down from just over 5 dollars a week ago to 4.15


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## tinhat (1 September 2012)

Plenty of value available in the mining service sector. Sentiment might take some time to turn around though.


----------



## odds-on (3 September 2012)

skc said:


> GCS - PE~4. 22% profit rise today. Down 11%.




Trading halt this morning. Capital raising to reduce debt and finance growth. Interesting times.


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## notting (3 September 2012)

skc said:


> Now can someone please go whack WOR down... I can't stand it being green AND has the highest PEx.




Ex today might help!


----------



## craft (3 September 2012)

skc said:


> I think it's more to do with balance sheet leverage and operational leverage.




That's my opinion too.

With the debate still being argued around the existence of a super cycle it’s possible that good quality, robust and manageable balance sheets will retain favour longer as a means of exposure to the next upturn that will be sooner and larger if the super cycle theory  is correct.   

For the lower quality getting hammered now, the super cycle debate is mute because even a downturn in a super cycle will hammer their utilisation and profitability.

Not sure I would be going short high quality and long poor quality just yet  – this catch up is probably a better proposition once the commodities super cycle theory really looks like going to its knees - Timing????


----------



## McCoy Pauley (4 September 2012)

Down another almost 10% this morning.  New 52-week low posted.  I'm starting to take a look at it in a bit more detail.


----------



## skc (4 September 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Down another almost 10% this morning.  New 52-week low posted.  I'm starting to take a look at it in a bit more detail.




Ex-div 6.5c so that's half of today's fall.

FMG shelving its expansion plan is a further blow to the sector already on its knees.

NWH works with FMG got belted.

Market now doesn't just worry about "pipeline" not eventuating - you have to wonder how firm are actual work orders..


----------



## VSntchr (5 September 2012)

Big down day again along with mostly all the other mining service cpy's that I follow. AZG starting to join the falls now, I'm suprised its taken this long..as its one of the ones that has cashflow issues....


----------



## odds-on (5 September 2012)

VSntchr said:


> Big down day again along with mostly all the other mining service cpy's that I follow. AZG starting to join the falls now, I'm suprised its taken this long..as its one of the ones that has cashflow issues....




BLY directors are buying. Something is up. Where is inspector clouseau when you need him?


----------



## skc (5 September 2012)

VSntchr said:


> Big down day again along with mostly all the other mining service cpy's that I follow. AZG starting to join the falls now, I'm suprised its taken this long..as its one of the ones that has cashflow issues....




AZG is great value in a resource boom market.

In a downturn it'd be firtst to go. It's way too reliant on its corporate credit card...

Wait 'til Gina says Roy Hill is on hold and watch the sector fall further...

Re Directors buying BLY - it was a good symbolic gesture for them to pick up 20,000 shares each. But I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that something is up.

Twigger bought $40m FMG last week and the only thing that's up is his capital loss.


----------



## jancha (5 September 2012)

skc said:


> AZG is great value in a resource boom market.
> 
> In a downturn it'd be firtst to go. It's way too reliant on its corporate credit card...
> 
> ...




Good point skc but is it being over sold?


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2012)

Anyone looking at buying?

Looks ok to me.  1.09 was the obvious entry but the power went out here for 2 hours when that happened!


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 September 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Anyone looking at buying?
> 
> Looks ok to me.  1.09 was the obvious entry but the power went out here for 2 hours when that happened!




Couldn't do it.  Closing too near its low.  Hoping for an entry tomorrow at 1.09, depending.


----------



## notting (29 October 2012)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6822&p=726037&viewfull=1#post726037


.........A few months on.  Oh.....
EOC
DML
SDL
ARI
All being highjacked by Chinese backed take overs.
Now that's manipulation on a massive scale.
And I don't think they are finished yet.


----------



## skc (30 October 2012)

notting said:


> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6822&p=726037&viewfull=1#post726037
> 
> 
> .........A few months on.  Oh.....
> ...




Not another Chinese conspiracy from you, Notting!

DML and SDL are barely worth $1B. EOC is worth a tiny $70m. Did the Chinese manipulate the commodities market worth hundreds of $B so they can save 25% on taking over 2 companies worth $1B each?! Come on! The lead buyer for ARI are not even Chinese!

The problem is domestic insto investors don't recognise long term strategic value. They are the ones who dumped ARI to historic low prices by reacting to only the next immediate quarter. When something is cheap enough, new buyers come in. But don't blame the new buyers for the price fall in the first place!


----------



## notting (30 October 2012)

Don't press that red button on my forhead!

You know what happens   :bonk:

Well, yes, but the price fall in the first place is due to deliberate Chinese destocking.
They managed to change the entire world sentiment on materials this time.
It doesn't cost them anything to manipulate they just stop buying all Chinese companies all at once!!!!!!!!!(of course their not state controlled no, never, not us, these r private companies)

Then surprise, surprise the Chinese are the first to come flying into the spot market to make massive purchases of iron ore at the down ramped price after tanking it!!

They have just tried to grab what is cheap and strategic useful for their evil aspirations.

The point is they will and do manipulate everything they possibly can regardless of international trade laws.  

And they are not finished yet

No conspiracy it's the Chinese. :whip


----------



## pixel (19 November 2012)

Is it time to get back on boart?
My t/a scanner suggests it might be - provided sp holds above the indicated break level.
Fundamentalists may want to check http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01357117 first.


----------



## pixel (21 November 2012)

pixel said:


> Is it time to get back on boart?




... and the answer: An obvious* "No!"*





A number of the biggies have issued downgrades, and the Market reacted: 4M short in today's report.
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


----------



## skc (21 November 2012)

pixel said:


> ... and the answer: An obvious* "No!"*




This was such a hard one to trade. I actually held a long position coming into the market guidance. Sold on the open for a small loss and watch it ran from $1.25 to $1.45 and kicking myself constantly... 

I thought it'd stay around the $1.35-$1.45 range... but it broke to the downside pretty convincingly.

I am surprised to see strength in MND today - I expected to see it do a BLY.


----------



## notting (21 November 2012)

pixel said:


> ... and the answer: An obvious* "No!"*
> A number of the biggies have issued downgrades, and the Market reacted: 4M short in today's report.



Last time it hit these levels, after surprising the market, it was a table pounding buy from what I could see from those that spend their time analysing the space.
After recovering from the lows of that, quite recent, time it came out with a downgrade, which initially caused the stock *to rise!* It's not too common to see skitish traders bid up on a downgrade!
Wonder who was sitting behind that anouncement with their mouth wide open?
From memory TRS was in the top three shorted stocks at around $9.50.
Beware the crowded trade?


----------



## skc (21 November 2012)

skc said:


> I am surprised to see strength in MND today - I expected to see it do a BLY.




I farking knew it 

4% reversal on MND yet I was already stopped out of my short 

Don't you hate it when you are too quick for the market!!


----------



## Trembling Hand (21 November 2012)

skc said:


> Don't you hate it when you are too quick for the market!!




Ha.... thats been my last 10 days!


----------



## skc (21 November 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha.... thats been my last 10 days!




Lol. I was thinking of your story on the other thread as I typed it.


----------



## notting (21 December 2012)

Thought it was a bit happy rising 9% on confirmation it has cut back lots of staff and so on to cope with less!
Glad I sold too now that it's only 3%


----------



## skc (21 December 2012)

notting said:


> Thought it was a bit happy rising 9% on confirmation it has cut back lots of staff and so on to cope with less!
> Glad I sold too now that it's only 3%




When a company announces that it is doing less of what it does the most, and the share price goes up... you know something's not right with the sector.


----------



## notting (26 December 2012)

And now for something completely different.
Down ramp,bottom pick, announce, boom.....

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/executivesuite/downtime/8576615/china-to-flatten-700-for-new-city

More of the same really.

I had to go for a walk when I saw repeat interviews of Richard Branson talking about China's headway in environmental sustainability compared to may other developed nations. Going for a walk was the only way I could keep myself from head butting the TV.

The entrepreneur has either found a new niche market in synergistic propaganda services or has been dropping acid.

Is it getting stuffy in here or is it just me?


----------



## Julia (26 December 2012)

notting said:


> Is it getting stuffy in here or is it just me?




It is most assuredly not just you, notting.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 December 2012)

BLY is a very interesting stock.

It has a long history, I attach just the last 7 years from wikipedia.



> In 2005 Boart Longyear was divested by Anglo American and acquired by the private equity firms Advent International, Bain Capital, and several management investors. The headquarters were then moved to Salt Lake City. Since the sale by Anglo American, management had undertaken a number of ownership changes, restructuring initiatives, and acquisitions, all establishing Boart Longyear as a global leader in mining exploration services and products. By October 2006, Advent sold Boart Longyear to the Australian investment firm, Macquarie Bank, and, in April 2007, Macquarie took Boart Longyear public in an A$2.3 billion IPO on the ASX stock exchange. Boart Longyear’s IPO was the second largest IPO in the history of the ASX. The patented Stage™ waterway bit design was introduced and provided the first extended 25mm crown in the market.
> In 2008 Boart Longyear acquired Eklund Drilling, Britton Brothers, Aqua Drilling and Westrod Engineering. The new patented Quick Descent™ Core Barrel Assembly was launched.
> Early 2009, Paul Brunner retired as Chief Executive Officer of the Company and was succeeded by Craig Kipp, who had served for three years as Chief Operating Officer. Prior to joining the Company, Mr. Kipp was employed by General Electric from 1983 to 2005.
> In early 2010 Boart Longyear continued to introduce new technology to the industry, drilling products include a heli-portable surface drill with integrated rod handling, patented surface set bit technology and patented spearpoint design for the corebarrel head assembly. However, after over 30 years of Anglo American’s ownership, Boart Longyear was considered a non-core asset for the Johannesburg based mining company.




It has been owned by such denizens of propriety and good governance as Bain Capital and Anglo American.

The good millionaires at Macquarie Bank floated it to their mug customers, for $2.3 billion to offset the dry years they had in the previous 5 years on their farms in NSW. A lot of lucerne goes a little way when your an ex millionaire's factory cockie. 

It is worth just $790.9 million now, just about a third of it's floated value.

It is chilling to see the loss of value on the enclosed chart by the Macquarie mug punters, as few sold on the way down from appearances. No wonder MQG lost so much value since.

Nonetheless for bottom pickers with sticky fingers, the chart does indicate not only hope, but some promise. One to watch in 2013.






gg


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## notting (18 March 2013)

Given the negative 2% loss on XJO, and many of the others in the mining services sector doing even worse, it was interesting to see BLY have a positive day today after winning the race to the bottom over the last month or so.

Will be looking with interest tomorrow.


----------



## JTLP (4 April 2013)

Boart came across my eyes tonight after I saw a 10% decimation today - down to a princely $1.09!

One that I've always been interested in but seem to underperform on the whole...could now be a good time to take a position?

Things to note:
NTA: $1.55
Reduction in costs/headcount
Margins have been reducing but latest report seems to indicate this will improve
2 major minerals they supply for - Copper and Gold - don't seem to be as volatile as iron ore (gold at the moment does but I feel it could turn with the worlds problems).

May have a read over the weekend to determine...thoughts from others?


----------



## skc (4 April 2013)

JTLP said:


> Boart came across my eyes tonight after I saw a 10% decimation today - down to a princely $1.09!
> 
> One that I've always been interested in but seem to underperform on the whole...could now be a good time to take a position?
> 
> ...




Throw NTA out the window for any mining service stock. 

NTA is an accounting entry. How much the company spent on drill rigs and bits (less depreciation) has nothing to do with how much profit and cash flow they would generate. In a world where demand exceeds supply (i.e. lots of people want to drill and there are not enough drillers), NTA is probably semi-meaningful as you can readily contract out or sell the rig. In a world where rigs might sit idle - probably where the market thinks we are headed - NTA would be quite meaningless as you can't even find a buyer in a liquidation.

$1.09 was a major low for BLY back in Sept last year. It found some leg to more than double from there (and did a text book gap fill). My random guess is that BLY will push through below $1 before any strength.


----------



## ROE (4 April 2013)

I am in today ... dont play NTA game, play probability of recovery...

Make no mistake their last report is bad but it is not that dire, they can withstand the current climate and a lot more with their balance sheet ...

interest cover is very healthy, throw in a business that is at all time cynical low on a PE of around 8 it has to get hell of a lot worse for it to tank from here...maybe another 10% if Mr market and Mr Shorter is stack against it..

I say it has potential to go to $1.40 - $1.50 in the next 18 months and that is a good enough game for me.
down side 95c-$1.0 upside $1.40 - $1.50 with the current price, upside wins ...

and there is potential for other people to snapped up its drilling products business and based on what GE paid for Industrea recently, BLY drilling product division alone worth more than its whole market cap...

such fear such good opportunity  but only time will tell who is on the right side of history, me for being cheerful or the market price it correctly


----------



## ROE (5 April 2013)

JTLP said:


> Boart came across my eyes tonight after I saw a 10% decimation today - down to a princely $1.09!
> 
> One that I've always been interested in but seem to underperform on the whole...could now be a good time to take a position?
> 
> ...




hey JTLP you message me a few times so I like to tell you what I know... NTA doesn't really mean much to us retail investor because unless you take control of the company and can salvage it like a private equity
they provide little benefits.

I take exception of properties holding like HVN and discount a bit and NTA should be their floor price and so in my opinion any way and that why I buy HVN at $1.80 etc...

Hard backing asset like properties do worth something regardless of what other people say, land value has to be worth something and there are always buyer for properties even if it is a ****ty properties..

value can be found when the market is fearful and they throw logic out 

if you have strong foundation you can sort out the fear from the logic and prosper


----------



## JTLP (5 April 2013)

ROE said:


> hey JTLP you message me a few times so I like to tell you what I know... NTA doesn't really mean much to us retail investor because unless you take control of the company and can salvage it like a private equity
> they provide little benefits.
> 
> I take exception of properties holding like HVN and discount a bit and NTA should be their floor price and so in my opinion any way and that why I buy HVN at $1.80 etc...
> ...




Thanks for the input ROEROC and SKC - appreciate the thoughts and explanations on NTA and mining services etc.

Good to know about the interest cover as well - and you're already in the money if you bought at the close yesterday!

I'll continue to watch for the moment


----------



## JTLP (18 April 2013)

And watch I continue to do...

BLY currently at 89 cents. Is this in danger of breaching any covenants? Seems to be copping a fair old whack today...

Will one day ever be a good day to buy?


----------



## ROE (18 April 2013)

Margin call I reckon...no its EBITDA interest cover is 12-13 times
can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow ....you get an update in May from the new CEO....

I bought some more today.... I got no debt no margin I can ride the beast ....

too irrational...good day to have cash 

no one can tell when is a good time to buy...you just have to be comfortable with what you get and for the price you want and ride it


----------



## skc (18 April 2013)

ROE said:


> Margin call I reckon...no its EBITDA interest cover is 12-13 times
> can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
> in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow ....you get an update in May from the new CEO....
> 
> ...




I'd agree this is getting a bit irrational. ASL downgraded yesterday but the numbers weren't disasterous. BLY was 54c at the bottom of the GFC whil faced with real chance of extinction. Now they are looking at some lean years but hardly an extinction event.

There's probably a short term trade in there somewhere, and a probably a long term hold as well. But you really need some decent balls to buy in the face of a mad crowd.


----------



## odds-on (18 April 2013)

The lower the price goes the more attention BLY is going to get, and as long as the facts have not changed it will eventually get priced rationally. In the meantime, batten down the storm hatches and wait out a few weeks...

Hold at $0.96. If drops to $0.60 i will average down.

Cheers


----------



## JTLP (19 April 2013)

Macquarie have come on board as a substantial holder - 5% - and another Canadian group have been picking up a few shares recently.

Do they see something we don't? I'll be interested to see if people are willing to hold into the weekend...


----------



## ROE (20 April 2013)

skc said:


> I'd agree this is getting a bit irrational. ASL downgraded yesterday but the numbers weren't disasterous. BLY was 54c at the bottom of the GFC whil faced with real chance of extinction. Now they are looking at some lean years but hardly an extinction event.
> 
> There's probably a short term trade in there somewhere, and a probably a long term hold as well. But you really need some decent balls to buy in the face of a mad crowd.




I bought and I bought a lot  that my game I buy without fear when I think the stock offer good upside ... the possibility of making 30-40% on this stock isn't too far reaching from my average price....

the probability not only lies in capital gain but potentially good dividend too for the price it trading around 80ish

it is not a stock I hold a long time like many other stocks, probably as soon as I make decent profit I'm out 

I think people afraid of their few hundred mill of debt  but BLY debt is bloody cheap...their draw on debt is 200bsp on USD 90 days bill, cheaper than what you can get deposit from the big banks.....

so their debt burden is easily carry unless you think the USD 90 days bill going to increase 
aggressively in the next 24 months....unlikely when US is in deflation and craw at turtle speed with inflation...


----------



## ROE (20 April 2013)

JTLP said:


> Macquarie have come on board as a substantial holder - 5% - and another Canadian group have been picking up a few shares recently.
> 
> Do they see something we don't? I'll be interested to see if people are willing to hold into the weekend...




Found Goodman mob interesting, haven't seen a fund manager who aggressively average down and I have no idea when they stop buying if price keep dropping because they keep buying.....they now hold over 10% of BLY

their BLY lies in the same basket case as Microsoft, Halliburton and wells Fargo and I would own all these three stocks if I was to live in the US as well...


----------



## odds-on (7 May 2013)

odds-on said:


> The lower the price goes the more attention BLY is going to get, and as long as the facts have not changed it will eventually get priced rationally. In the meantime, batten down the storm hatches and wait out a few weeks...
> 
> Hold at $0.96. If drops to $0.60 i will average down.
> 
> Cheers




After some pondering over a cup of tea and a biscuit, I decided to exit my BLY position today at $1.02 for a small profit. The steep price drop in ASL over the last few weeks makes it a far more attractive bet compared to BLY. BLY out ASL in - hopefully this will play out like before Xmas.

Going to keep my eye on BLY.

Cheers


----------



## bobaom (15 May 2013)

odds-on said:


> After some pondering over a cup of tea and a biscuit, I decided to exit my BLY position today at $1.02 for a small profit. The steep price drop in ASL over the last few weeks makes it a far more attractive bet compared to BLY. BLY out ASL in - hopefully this will play out like before Xmas.
> 
> Going to keep my eye on BLY.
> 
> Cheers




Good call. I held, I regret.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (18 June 2013)

odds-on said:


> After some pondering over a cup of tea and a biscuit, I decided to exit my BLY position today at $1.02 for a small profit. The steep price drop in ASL over the last few weeks makes it a far more attractive bet compared to BLY. BLY out ASL in - hopefully this will play out like before Xmas.
> 
> Going to keep my eye on BLY.
> 
> Cheers




Cup of tea in hand here, and I reckon it's shaping up for a strong one-day move to 81c.  But when?  Too far away from the trendline today, and the 6% move will probably get sold off after tomorrow's open.  Maybe next Monday....?  

:microwave


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 June 2013)

Same shape in OZL and AGO.  They might follow it.


----------



## rbgmauq (19 June 2013)

BLY could be providing a bottoming pattern. Strong technical buying signal, six months target: 1.268


----------



## pixel (19 June 2013)

BLY reappeared today as one of my midday scan results.





Primary resistance 78.5, but if that is broken, it should head North of $1.


----------



## Country Lad (19 June 2013)

pixel said:


> Primary resistance 78.5, but if that is broken, it should head North of $1.




Could be an interesting little double bottom which will be confirmed if it breaks your 78.5.  DBs have a high failure rate unless they break up, particularly short term ones like this, so I would wait for the confirmation if I were to buy these.

Cheers 
Country Lad


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 June 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Could be an interesting little double bottom which will be confirmed if it breaks your 78.5.  DBs have a high failure rate unless they break up, particularly short term ones like this, so I would wait for the confirmation if I were to buy these.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad



Of course they have a high failure rate if they don't break out.  That's like saying that stocks that don't go up on a given day have a high rate of going down.


----------



## Country Lad (19 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Of course they have a high failure rate if they don't break out.  That's like saying that stocks that don't go up on a given day have a high rate of going down.




I will ignore the unnecessary smart ar$e part of your post. 

All too often we see (including here) people calling a pattern like BLY as a double bottom before it breaks above the intermediate high, in this case 78.5.  To be pedantic, it is not a double bottom until it breaks the high regardless of how good it looks, then it has only a 3% failure rate of a rise between 20% and 30%.

Calling it a double bottom before the break, as people are apt to do, comes with a failure rate of 64%.

Now, can we get back to BLY?

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## pixel (19 June 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Could be an interesting little double bottom which will be confirmed if it breaks your 78.5.  DBs have a high failure rate unless they break up, particularly short term ones like this, so I would wait for the confirmation if I were to buy these.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Totally agree, CL; I wouldn't even call it a DB until *after* the breakout. (Sometimes I'm sloppy and talk about a "potential DB", which I take your "Could be" to imply as well.)

The scan I was running doesn't even recognise DB's. It looks for drawn-out slides with high volume and a change of momentum in short-period MACD.




If I weren't as spoiled for choice as I was today, I might have risked an early  Intraday entry with a very tight stop loss




e.g. buy 71 today with stop a tick under 70c.


----------



## hnagpal (22 June 2013)

BLY - Grab this stock above 0.7525. All set to move to 0.890 - 0.970 levels soon


----------



## CanOz (22 June 2013)

hnagpal said:


> BLY - Grab this stock above 0.7525. All set to move to 0.890 - 0.970 levels soon




On the basis of what analysis are you forecasting this move?


----------



## Country Lad (22 June 2013)

hnagpal said:


> BLY - Grab this stock above 0.7525. All set to move to 0.890 - 0.970 levels soon






hnagpal said:


> AAX - Worst seems to be over in this stock. A close above the resistance level of 2.265 will be very positive and will see 2.660-2.750 levels soon.





An explanation behind these two posts would be appropriate, like a justification for the statements and/or charts otherwise they are just ramping.  Particularly your "grab" BLY as it disagrees with other posters who say wait till 78.5 so why do you disagree?

Cheers
Country Lad

PS you beat me to it CanOz.  Looks like ramping to me.


----------



## Country Lad (25 June 2013)

pixel said:


> Totally agree, CL; I wouldn't even call it a DB until *after* the breakout.




A good example of a double bottom that isn't.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## skc (27 August 2013)

ROE said:


> ...no its EBITDA interest cover is 12-13 times
> can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
> in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow






skc said:


> BLY was 54c at the bottom of the GFC whil faced with real chance of extinction. Now they are looking at some lean years but hardly an extinction event.
> 
> There's probably a short term trade in there somewhere, and a probably a long term hold as well. But you really need some decent balls to buy in the face of a mad crowd.




Well, it turns out that things are indeed pretty bad. The commentary yesterday around BLY's result said that conditions were as bad as the GFC, and they are likely in breach of debt convenent test at calendar year end. They need to renegotiate the debt and/or do a big cap raising. I guess that's what happens in a cyclical business with large fixed costs - when 50% of your rigs are idle, the earning falls exponentially faster than revenue.

You'd think so soon after the near death experience during the GFC management would learn a thing or two... then again, may be management shouldn't. They control the controllables and it's up to the investor to manage their own exposure to cyclical risks. 

Anyway, with my musing back in April, a buy then would've seen you above water for about a month before the next series of lower highs and lower lows.

ASL reports tomorrow and is smacked down today (I was surprised it didn't go down more yesterday)... it takes a brave soul to hold this into tomorrow's report that's for sure.


----------



## ROE (27 August 2013)

I am out as of yesterday result ..thing turn for the worse with balance sheet gone - take a loss not a big one as I manage to trade in and out for a while for profit so my average probably be around 55-60c and I got out at 52c

Money gone to AHZ because this thing look better by the day in 2 years it should generate decent profit and start growing ....


----------



## skc (29 August 2013)

skc said:


> ASL reports tomorrow and is smacked down today (I was surprised it didn't go down more yesterday)... it takes a brave soul to hold this into tomorrow's report that's for sure.




Actually ASL reported today and things aren't nearly as dire as BLY's painted. Share price up a casual 17%.

It would have taken a brave soul to went in to the report, long or short.


----------



## odds-on (29 August 2013)

skc said:


> Actually ASL reported today and things aren't nearly as dire as BLY's painted. Share price up a casual 17%.
> 
> It would have taken a brave soul to went in to the report, long or short.




I have been holding ASL since taking a position in May (1.55)...does that make me brave or just plain stupid? 

Will have a read of the results over the next couple of days and make a decision - but if it is able to pay a dividend, life cannot be too bad. I reckon it will end up trading at tangible book.


----------



## skc (29 August 2013)

odds-on said:


> I have been holding ASL since taking a position in May (1.55)...does that make me brave or just plain stupid?




May be lazy?



odds-on said:


> Will have a read of the results over the next couple of days and make a decision - but if it is able to pay a dividend, life cannot be too bad. I reckon it will end up trading at tangible book.




What's NTA? Iress is saying 63c which I assume is not your price target!


----------



## McLovin (29 August 2013)

skc said:


> What's NTA? Iress is saying 63c which I assume is not your price target!




Is that assets/share or price to assets??


----------



## skc (29 August 2013)

McLovin said:


> Is that assets/share or price to assets??




  

Need to get my brain fixed. Lol.

I've only used that Iress information a few thousand times.


----------



## VSntchr (24 February 2014)

ROE said:


> I am out as of yesterday result ..thing turn for the worse with balance sheet gone - take a loss not a big one as I manage to trade in and out for a while for profit so my average probably be around 55-60c and I got out at 52c
> 
> Money gone to AHZ because this thing look better by the day in 2 years it should generate decent profit and start growing ....




Good move there ROE, AHZ breaking out of consolidation this morning while Boart releases a shocker. Avg rev. per month in December looking very shakey in the presentation. Things are looking far worse than the 2009 low. There is really no optimism in the report and the only positive to be taken away is that the company does have some substantial assets that could be sold. Equity now only ~$450m after this years massive loss...


----------



## skc (24 February 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Good move there ROE, AHZ breaking out of consolidation this morning while Boart releases a shocker. Avg rev. per month in December looking very shakey in the presentation. Things are looking far worse than the 2009 low. There is really no optimism in the report and the only positive to be taken away is that the company does have some substantial assets that could be sold. Equity now only ~$450m after this years massive loss...




Yes it's a pretty bleak presentation. In this market, who are they going to sell the assets to? The equity is book value and it's only a write down away from being wiped out. 

The fact that they feel the need to mention time and again that they are a 120 year old company... you'd think they know by now that they are in a cyclical business so you should be more prudent with your gearing level in case when things go bad!

Which brings us to a philosophical (or perhaps statistical) question. Is a 120 year old company more or less likely to survive the following year comapred to just any company over 10 years old? Does the long history mean that statistics / freak event or whatever will soon catch up with tem?


----------



## McLovin (24 February 2014)

skc said:


> Which brings us to a philosophical (or perhaps statistical) question. Is a 120 year old company more or less likely to survive the following year comapred to just any company over 10 years old? Does the long history mean that statistics / freak event or whatever will soon catch up with tem?




Is that like asking if a coin is flipped 120 times and goes heads every time then it has a greater than 50% chance of going tails on the 121st flip?

It would be a brave person who would step into mining services at the moment, IMO. If history has taught me one thing, it's that booms and busts can persist for far longer than you think they will. And this was a massive boom.


----------



## VSntchr (24 February 2014)

skc said:


> In this market, who are they going to sell the assets to?




My thinking exactly.
They talk about pricing pressures due to increased competition which is a result of alot of companies having lower than average utilisation rates...
So until competitors start seeing utilisation improve - who would want to buy the assets?
Perhaps there is some assets which can be used by other companies, e.g. not all assets are drilling specific. But even then, the demand for all things mining service isn't exactly substantiating a thriving market.


----------



## tradernor (28 May 2014)

*BLY -  Time frame for the Reversal of the Sector*

BLY's stock has plunged primarily because of the weak sector. What is your opinion about the timeframe in terms of the reversal of the sector? How long will it take until the sector reverses? thanks.


----------



## ROE (28 May 2014)

*Re: BLY -  Time frame for the Reversal of the Sector*



tradernor said:


> BLY's stock has plunged primarily because of the weak sector. What is your opinion about the timeframe in terms of the reversal of the sector? How long will it take until the sector reverses? thanks.




it is not just weak sector this business has balance sheet issue ... it has a decent chance of getting massive dilution or going belly up..


----------



## tradernor (23 June 2014)

*Re: BLY -  Time frame for the Reversal of the Sector*



ROE said:


> it is not just weak sector this business has balance sheet issue ... it has a decent chance of getting massive dilution or going belly up..





Yes, I agree. The balance sheet has also problems. It is weak because the debt to cash flow ratio is too high. I think the lenders will convert into shares by 2015.


----------



## tradernor (23 June 2014)

Do you know why BLY is listed in Australia although it is a US company?


----------



## skc (15 July 2014)

ROE said:


> I am out as of yesterday result ..thing turn for the worse with balance sheet gone - take a loss not a big one as I manage to trade in and out for a while for profit so my average probably be around 55-60c and I got out at 52c




Things are not looking good for BLY. These snippets from Dow Jones Newswires. I wonder if the company willl offer any response tomorrow.



> SYDNEY- Boart Longyear Ltd., the world's largest supplier of drill rigs to the mining sector, has begun talks with specialist restructuring advisers to avoid bankruptcy as demand for equipment from global resources companies plummets, three people familiar with the matter said.
> 
> Utah-based Boart has been seeking to sell assets or raise capital since February, when it appointed Goldman Sachs to carry out a strategic review in the wake of widening losses and high debts. Now, Boart has begun working with a different set of advisers-the Australian restructuring group at law firm Ashurst, and insolvency practitioners KordaMentha-which specialize in radical measures to save companies from financial collapse, the people said.






> ... Despite the cutbacks, Boart has struggled to manage debts of around US$600 million. In recent months, the company has twice negotiated with lenders to relax financial covenants and replace restrictive bank loans with long-dated high-yield notes. But with demand for drilling equipment showing little sign of recovery, Boart appears to be running out of options to repair its balance sheet. Boart's unsecured notes due in 2021 are now trading at only 72%-73% of their face value, and bondholders are nervous. Ares Management L.P., a Los Angeles-based fund which has become Boart's largest lender, recently appointed Australian law firm Arnold Bloch Leibler to represent its interest in any future restructuring of the firm, a person familiar with the matter
> said. Such a restructuring could include lenders exchanging debt for equity in the business, although no decisions have been taken.






tradernor said:


> BLY's stock has plunged primarily because of the weak sector. What is your opinion about the timeframe in terms of the reversal of the sector? How long will it take until the sector reverses? thanks.




The question is, when BLY folds, is ASL a buy or sell?


----------



## ceasar73 (15 July 2014)

BLY major share holder is dumping shares, hence the large price drop. Does anyone here thing Boart will survive??
If YES,  then now is surely a great time to buy...
thanks


----------



## skc (16 July 2014)

ceasar73 said:


> BLY major share holder is dumping shares, hence the large price drop. Does anyone here thing Boart will survive??
> If YES,  then now is surely a great time to buy...
> thanks




A bit late to be selling now?! They still have some 70m shares.

FWIW, I don't think BLY will survive in it's current form. It will most likely be recapitalised in a debt-for-equity swap. The debt is already trading at 25% discount to face value so it's hard to see any equity value left.

Then again, from memory Billabong's debt traded below face value as well and yet equity holders were not wiped out.

Down 30% as we speak.


----------



## McLovin (16 July 2014)

You don't bring in KordaMentha just for a chat. I reckon they'll be done in the next week.


----------



## skc (23 July 2014)

McLovin said:


> You don't bring in KordaMentha just for a chat. I reckon they'll be done in the next week.






ceasar73 said:


> BLY major share holder is dumping shares, hence the large price drop. Does anyone here thing Boart will survive??
> If YES,  then now is surely a great time to buy...
> thanks




And what do I know. It's gone from historical low of 8.8c 2 days ago to 21 cents at the close today.

Sign of life or terminal lucidity? 





This is PLA's almighty spike before it went to corporate heaven. There probably was a corporate activity rumour in the background somewhere.


----------



## goccipgp (23 July 2014)

Looks like  a breakout at 0.25 with a short term target of 0.292, according to au stoxline.


----------



## shoegaze (2 August 2014)

What do you guys take out of the announcements on monday?


----------



## ceasar73 (5 August 2014)

Centerbridge distressed debt fund have 12% of BLY.
I reckon they will buy BLY debt and do a debt for equity swap. BLY will be saved...BUT
Does anyone know how this will work? What will be left for current shareholder?
thanks
ceasar


----------



## skc (5 August 2014)

ceasar73 said:


> Centerbridge distressed debt fund have 12% of BLY.
> I reckon they will buy BLY debt and do a debt for equity swap. BLY will be saved...BUT
> Does anyone know how this will work? What will be left for current shareholder?
> thanks
> ceasar





Current shareholders could easily be left as a rounding error in a recapitalised structure. However, existing holders might also be offered an opportunity to participate in the recapitalisation... if throwing good money after bad is their thing.


----------



## prawn_86 (23 October 2014)

BLY up 50% today on the back of a new funding deal, but another rights issue announced also...


----------



## dlineinvestor (23 October 2014)

I don't follow this stock but this might be of interest for any holders out there.
http://www.skynews.com.au/video/finance/2014/10/23/11am-market-wrap-thursday.html


----------



## pixel (23 October 2014)

skc said:


> And what do I know. It's gone from historical low of 8.8c 2 days ago to 21 cents at the close today. [...]
> Sign of life or terminal lucidity?




"Reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated." (apologies to Samuel Langhorne Clemens)

Today's announcements of recapitalisation: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01565189
and buy-back: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01565196
would have surprised many; hence the huge p&v spike.





Unfortunately, I missed it too


----------



## tradernor (23 October 2014)

Concur. A lot of debt here in BLY while the sector has problems due to the low gold and silver price.


----------



## skc (24 October 2014)

I have tried to look through the annoncement a number of times now and still can't really get my head around the deal. It has  5 or 6 different "mechanisms" and in the end I can't work out how much existing holders will own and how many shares are going to be on issue... 

Has anyone smarter here got it figured out?


----------



## Nortorious (24 October 2014)

From a weekly chart perspective, it is starting to get interesting but I haven't seen or read the fundamental news so can't comment.

I'll be looking at these more closely if it moves above 0.26 and look at an entry not long after that if the indicators I use agree with an entry.


----------



## ceasar73 (11 November 2014)

Have Centrebridge saved this mob or is it still to early to call?
thanks
c73


----------



## ceasar73 (12 December 2014)

BLY??

To early to BUY BLY??

thanks
c73


----------



## stockGURU (4 August 2016)

All but written off this time last year, BLY seems to be finally coming back from the dead.


----------



## skc (3 April 2017)

ceasar73 said:


> Have Centrebridge saved this mob or is it still to early to call?
> thanks
> c73




Two and a half year on, BLY gets another recapitalisation. This time, existing non-centrebridge equity holders get diluted from owning 35% of the company to just 2%. Or if you used to hold 1,000,000 shares you will hold ~ 57,000 shares after the dilution. 

For the record, BLY's all time high share price was ~$22 when adjusted for all the dilutions/consolidations etc. Today it seems a bit overpriced @ 6c given the pending dilution.

On a brighter note, holders get some warrants and a $5k SPP to buy new shares @ 2c...


----------



## joeno (17 April 2017)

Thinking about taking a punt with this one. Anyone know why this stock has been hammered so much lately?


----------



## greggles (28 July 2017)

BLY back from the dead and up almost 50% today. 

Recently announced recapitalisation and leadership changes may have turned the tide of negative sentiment on this one. I thought it might have been all over for BLY a little while ago.


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## skc (28 July 2017)

greggles said:


> BLY back from the dead and up almost 50% today.
> 
> Recently announced recapitalisation and leadership changes may have turned the tide of negative sentiment on this one. I thought it might have been all over for BLY a little while ago.




But the recap hasn't actually happened yet?! At 7c the market cap is $66m. Existing holders are going to be diluted to just 2%.

No matter how you look at it, BLY isn't worth $3.3B (being $66m / 2%).

I am at a complete lost as to why BLY spiked so hard in the last few days. Any other suggestions?


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 July 2017)

skc said:


> But the recap hasn't actually happened yet?! At 7c the market cap is $66m. Existing holders are going to be diluted to just 2%.
> 
> No matter how you look at it, BLY isn't worth $3.3B (being $66m / 2%).
> 
> I am at a complete lost as to why BLY spiked so hard in the last few days. Any other suggestions?




Sometimes if you give a dead dog a hard enough kick it will jump.

gg


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## divs4ever (16 September 2021)

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT (ASX:BLY) 16 September 2021 BOART LONGYEAR RECAPITALISATION UPDATE – SUPREME COURT APPROVES CREDITORS' SCHEMES
Boart Longyear Limited (ASX:BLY) (Boart Longyear or the Company) is pleased to advise that the Supreme Court of New South Wales (Court) has today made orders approving the Secured Creditors' Scheme and the Unsecured Creditors' Scheme.
The Company expects to lodge a copy of the orders of the Court with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) tomorrow, Friday, 17 September 2021, at which time the Secured Creditors' Scheme and Unsecured Creditors' Scheme will become effective. The Company will provide the timetable for implementation of the Recapitalisation following lodgement of the Court orders with ASIC.

“Receiving Court approval today was a tremendous outcome for this Company that has a long and proud history of being a market leader to the mining services and exploration sectors”, said Boart Longyear’s CEO Jeff Olsen.
 The Company announced in early January, the engagement of an advisor for a strategic review to identify potential options in anticipation of the maturation of the Company’s debt facilities. 
The Company committed to all stakeholders that it would find a path to resolving its over levered balance sheet while remaining a market leader in the industry. Jeff Olsen also stated, “I would like to thank the Boart Longyear team who continue to service the needs of our global customer base. 
Without the many sacrifices of this team the Company may not have been in a position to achieve a successful recapitalisation. The “New” Boart Longyear is now positioned well to take advantage of a rising market sector. Shareholder Information Line If you have any questions in relation to either the Recapitalisation or the Re-domiciliation, please contact the Shareholders' Information Line on 1300 540 303 (within Australia) or +61 2 9066 4083 (from outside Australia) between 9:00 am to 5:00 pm (Sydney time), Monday to Friday. Authorised for lodgement by: Nora Pincus, Company Secretary

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 AGAIN ???

 this has been 'restructured more times in the last  10 years  , than i have visited cinemas

 i dumped the pitiful remains of  my holding  in October 2014  @ 26.5 cents  ( a share , probably has been consolidated at least once since then )

 they should change their business model to a leader in recapitalizations


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