# How to turn $9,500 into $550,000+



## krisbarry

Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.

There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.

It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.

Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.

I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!

Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks

You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.  

I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.

So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.



..


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## Mousie

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just buy being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..




Of course. That's what I did with DYL and MTN, among others


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## SGB

Good point S T C
but i actually enjoy mulling over charts for hours.
I'm actually quite bored today that there is no action.
Is there something wrong with me?
SGB


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## nizar

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..




Ok. If its that easy lets try it again. Whats your next pick?


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## krisbarry

Mousie said:


> Of course. That's what I did with DYL and MTN, among others




Well done, but then why do we get these T/A and F/A freak-shows charting things this way, that way and all ways an cutting other members opinions down for the hell of it.  Not to mention the thousands of wasted hours learning all this garbage, and attending seminars and writing software etc.

Is it just about control and ego?

If you can chart it, then you have control over it?

Whats wrong with just letting a stock run?

I am beggining to change my views about T/A and F/A and trading as well.  I think that too many members get caught up in the hype of it and forget about just buying in and holding.


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## nizar

Stop_the_clock said:


> Well done, but then why do we get these T/A and F/A freak-shows charting things this way, that way and all ways an cutting other members opinions down for the hell of it.  Not to mention the thousands of wasted hours learning all this garbage, and attending seminars and writing software etc.
> 
> Is it just about control and ego?
> 
> If you can chart it, then you have control over it?
> 
> Whats wrong with just letting a stock run?
> 
> I am beggining to change my views about T/A and F/A and trading as well.  I think that too many members get caught up in the hype of it and forget about just buying in and holding.




STC.

If you are keen on learning how to ride long term trends, your gonna have to do a bit of work; and ask yourself:

*How much profit are you willing to give back during the trend? ie. MaxDD
*WHere you will place your trailing stop? FMG is just one example and its not really statistically significant (definately not). See if you can filter out these stocks using some sort of entry criteria, and see over X number of stocks, using this method and some sort of trailing stop/exit, what the average profitability will be?

This will either require about maybe 10,000 hours manually, or spend about $2-3 on some software (if you are serious) and let the program do the calcs for you.


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## nizar

Even better get a copy of Michael Covel's Trend Following.


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## tcoates

Good for you. But there are a number of stocks that might not have done that well - BDG for example. Have a look at the monthly chart. I am not disagreeing that buy and hold is not a valid methodology but still have to look at FA or TA at some point in time, even if it is annually.

Tim


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## krisbarry

nizar said:


> Ok. If its that easy lets try it again. Whats your next pick?




Thats the point...no specific stock, no charting, no F/A, just pick anything within the mining industry and you have just as much chance of making serious money from it, than your next door neighbour who has spent all year attending seminars, mulling over charts and F/A etc.


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## nizar

tcoaates_au said:


> Good for you. But there are a number of stocks that might not have done that well - BDG for example. Have a look at the monthly chart. I am not disagreeing that buy and hold is not a valid methodology but still have to look at FA or TA at some point in time, even if it is annually.
> 
> Tim




Fine example, my friend.


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## rico01

Stop_the_clock said:


> Thats the point...no specific stock, no charting, no F/A, just pick anything within the mining industry and you have just as much chance of making serious money from it, than your next door neighbour who has spent all year attending seminars, mulling over charts and F/A etc.




I've bought a million FNT and 500,000 YML. Will they work 4 me


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## nizar

Stop_the_clock said:


> Thats the point...no specific stock, no charting, no F/A, just pick anything within the mining industry and you have just as much chance of making serious money from it, than your next door neighbour who has spent all year attending seminars, mulling over charts and F/A etc.




You didnt get the point.
Read my post #6 on this thread, again.

Just pick any random stock and hold it is not a viable strategy.

There are people out there like John.W.Henry and other trend followers that kick back during the day, and just phone their broker whenever their entry/exit criteria are hit.

These people are trend followers. By definition they never get the whole trend, but the middle 70-80%, get on after its established and leave after its finished. Get on late and get out late. Yet they dominate.

They dont attend seminars, they dont care about FA, they only care bout the price action and the trend. They dont look at charts their program tells them everything. Yet they outperform most of Wall Street.

They dont pick random codes either.

But obviously you are not keen on taking this seriously.
If you change your mind -- PM me.


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## tech/a

*Kris.

100% spot on.*

The problem is finding the 20c stock which goes to $30,and of course thats what everyone is trying to do pouring over Charts and Fundamental analysis.

If we knew or could identify the Tech boom DVT (Davnet) did just that.I remember a young broker who bought 100000 at 6.5c (He was doing the Securities Institute technical Analysis course with mysel and many others).
It got to $7.25 from memory and I remember years later contacting him and asking what he sold for---$3.85---on the way down!

Some of us did this in the recient housing boom (A sore topic to many).

With Uranium mining being supported by BOTH parties my guess is that you'll find this type of opportunity in there!

*To add to your point*.(One I just made on another thread).

You can turn mediocre profit into fantastic profit without charts/fundamental analysis or star gazing.

With the correct use of

(1) Leverage
(2) Compounding your profit against your initial capital.
(3) Pyramiding into Successful trades.

This has been done to a degree with techtrader---initially starting with $30,000,leverage 2.2:1 (Trading Margin) and compounding profit.
That $30,000 today is $360,000 after 4.5 yrs.
The method itself is only average in my view testing and trading a yearly return of 26-35%. Its the application of the above that brings the massive returns.

I agree pouring over analysis has little effect on the end result.
Application of other stratagies within even a moderately successful method will bring suprising returns.


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## chicken8

$9,500 in FMG 4years ago when they were 8c would've done the trick

$36 at close on friday?


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## dj_420

nizar said:


> Ok. If its that easy lets try it again. Whats your next pick?




lol, i dont know about finding another 50 bagger! BUT what i have found is that stocks who are say a year or so away from producing allow investors a chance to get in early and allow maximum growth potential up until time they start producing.

examples

JML sp was 40 cents (or so) 1 year ago, it was a year until production and broker reports placed very little upside on valuations of the company, UNTIL they got close to production. sp now 1.30 which is a nice 300% for holders over that time.

CBH sp was 35 cents 1 year ago, endeavour had problems and didnt re-commence production until nov-dec, sp then went to highs of 84 cents (from memory).

PDN was $3 ish when trading just over a year ago and now over $8. again we didnt see real percentage gains until sp got much closer to production.

AGM 30 cents to over $1 on future production status

you could go on and on


i think these growth stories allow investors a lot of time to get in early before significant sp appreciation. i like these longer term growth stories, and of course the sp is usually discounted for a reason - been that the company can encounter many problems on the way to production. however if mgt are sound and keep the production timetable relatively well without huge costs blowouts and delays you will see a good amount of growth.

so my long term growth pick for now would be GBG, start producing hematite at years end and in 2010 will be producing magnetite. im not saying that GBG will see FMG type appreciation but from forecast cash flow etc we could see GBG trading over $10 in three years time (see GBG thread).

obviously any company wont suit, BUT after fundamental analysis of the company you should be able to identify whether the company has a resource large enough to warrant production, financial backing, institutional backing, sound mgt etc.

i would like to know other companies that are production imminent and trading at a discount to peers etc. perhaps even start a production imminent thread? so give us some good growth stories guys 

i like what you stated nizar about capturing most of the trend, jump on breakout then jump off when train slows down!


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## Col Lector

I am sceptical as to whether charts are able to beat the human brain when it comes to securing the meatiest part of a stock/sector rally...
ie,
Latereral thinking to pick the trend early or before they appear
Confirm the trend potential by reviewing historical data (eg, supply/demand graphs; inventory & production movements)
Chase up authorative (&obscure) information sources to further confirm the potential & unfolding of the trend...Google and Google News very handy here.

Add balls....having the conviction to hold/add & follow through on your trend pick when others are wavering.

And tech/a I agree....use leverage to accelerate.


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## Love Zn

Stop_the_clock said:


> Thats the point...no specific stock, no charting, no F/A, just pick anything within the mining industry and you have just as much chance of making serious money from it, than your next door neighbour who has spent all year attending seminars, mulling over charts and F/A etc.




I wouldn't just pick any mining stock, as most are just explores with no hope of ever mining, spending loads of money drilling holes in the ground.  And if we are talking another Uranium mine here in Australia, no extra mines have been approved and if and when they are, it would be 5-10 years before they would start producing.



dj_420 said:


> i would like to know other companies that are production imminent and trading at a discount to peers etc. perhaps even start a production imminent thread? so give us some good growth stories guys




I think this is the key, if your looking at investing in mining stocks and wanting to make money.  Your not going to get the full profit pontential, but if you jump on a stock, that are actually developing the mine, buying equipment, etc then in 1-2 years when they start producing, your profit should have grown.

This has worked for me with ZFX, KZL, PEM and SMY.  I got on board JML a few months ago and AGM.  Got off AGM when it was trending down, which I think it might for another week, but I think this still has potential and will probably get back on.

However I have lost on BDG - Bendigo Mining, I could have made a nice profit on them, but actually hung on too long, thinking they are still not far from production (I think they even had their first pour) and gold prices were still good, but reserves were adjusted down and now they have closed the mine.  Thankfully I got off before hitting bottom, but still lost money in the end.

You may not have to watch charts, but the research is key and still keeping an eye on them for any developments (good or bad).


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## insider

That's interesting... my next door neighbor got a 50 bagger...


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## the barry

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..




You really are a long way off with this whole thought process and are relying on a number of assumptions for this approach to work. It is that sought of approach as to why people who do the research and charting will end up making money and you won't.


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## Kauri

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc. Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%). But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..




   STC...
            anything is possible with hindsight... when did you decide that a mining boom was underway.... would you have divided your $9500 between your other certainties at the time ...i.e LVL , BTV etc??


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## Col Lector

Gidday S-The-C....
Assuming you have done the research AND thus picked FMG as a trend-vehicle
You failed the balls test....WHY did you place a stop-loss??



Col Lector said:


> I am sceptical as to whether charts are able to beat the human brain when it comes to securing the meatiest part of a stock/sector rally...
> ie,
> Latereral thinking to pick the trend early or before they appear
> Confirm the trend potential by reviewing historical data (eg, supply/demand graphs; inventory & production movements)
> Chase up authorative (&obscure) information sources to further confirm the potential & unfolding of the trend...Google and Google News very handy here.
> 
> *Add balls....having the conviction to hold/add & follow through on your trend pick when others are wavering.*
> And tech/a I agree....use leverage to accelerate.


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## tech/a

> You failed the balls test....WHY did you place a stop-loss??




Dont think he failed anything--well perhaps he failed the stupidity test!.

To *NOT* have stop particularly with stocks that can swing wildly,isnt showing balls,more stupidity.

All he failed to do was have a *RE-ENTRY* stratagy.

I dont think he's off the mark at all.


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## Col Lector

But tech/a...his strategy as stated was NOT to have a re-entry strategy...ie, set and leave. Therefore he has to have complete faith in his initial choice and that it will gain over the longer-term REGARDLESS of short to medium term flucuations, ie, the balls to back his initial conviction. Placing a Stop-loss negates this


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## tech/a

So as we can see its a case of luck to a degree.

So how can we achieve what Kris is suggesting and bring luck to us.

The best way I can explain this is those stocks we have in the long term method which have turned out to be 100's of % winners.

At the time of taking the trades we had no idea they would do that.
We could control risk by setting a stop.
This also had the effect of getting us out of trades which basically did very little (Not the most efficient way but it did this to a degree).
When stopped we just took another trade. I remember we actually re entered 2 or 3 trades as they were triggered again. I also remember CTX which was exited at $8.20 something was triggered but wasnt taken due to lack of funds.

Anyway the point is be quick to get out of those going against you or doing nothing and Slow to get out of those which are in profit.

*One stratagy I have mentioned before is that of "Free trades".*
Once a trade reaches 100% (Or whatever you choose) sell the initial capital and just let the Profit side of the trade go on indefinately. It can be traded again and again if you like. Building profit and removing Base capital to explore other opportunities.
Eventually over time you could have 20 or so stocks all trading in profit (As they would have to be delisted to lose it all!) letting profit run.

Further you could remove profit from those going stagnent and put it into those which are booming.---a million ways to improve performance.

Much easier to let a profit run when 
(1) You have one.
(2) You dont need it to live on.


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## stoxclimber

tech/a said:


> *One stratagy I have mentioned before is that of "Free trades".*
> Once a trade reaches 100% (Or whatever you choose) sell the initial capital and just let the Profit side of the trade go on indefinately. It can be traded again and again if you like. Building profit and removing Base capital to explore other opportunities.
> Eventually over time you could have 20 or so stocks all trading in profit (As they would have to be delisted to lose it all!) letting profit run.




Nice from a psychological point of view, but doesn't make any sense from a financial one - if its good, why are you selling? If its not good, why are you holding half?


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## YOUNG_TRADER

tech/a said:


> *One stratagy I have mentioned before is that of "Free trades".*
> Once a trade reaches 100% (Or whatever you choose) sell the initial capital and just let the Profit side of the trade go on indefinately. It can be traded again and again if you like. Building profit and removing Base capital to explore other opportunities.
> Eventually over time you could have 20 or so stocks all trading in profit (As they would have to be delisted to lose it all!) letting profit run.




I do this all the time, when see a company with excellent LT fundamnetals, buy, then at some point sell enough to cover outlay.


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## tech/a

stoxclimber said:


> Nice from a psychological point of view, but doesn't make any sense from a financial one - if its good, why are you selling? If its not good, why are you holding half?




A question I myself have pondered for some years (I dont do it myself).

I think the answer lies in timing.
Thats what we all do I guess to a degree in technical analysis.
We can specifically look for and set ourselves up into outlier moves (Those moves which can be 30-100%+ in a few days or weeks rather than Months or years.)

We dont know when these will happen but we can place ourselves in the position to take advantage of them if and when they do come.

By leaving some of our trade open and using funds to place ourselves in other setups. I guess the idea is to place more odds in our favour to catch more of a move---after the moves we are on inevitably slow or go into lengthy corrective moves.(The reason we sell some).
 Of course if there wasnt something (Percieved as more) attractive to buy into you wouldnt sellout part of your position.

Wether we do this and how efficiently we do do it is of course conjecture.


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## Col Lector

Tech/a....cant fault your comments...
as I see it "Opportunity-cost" and "limited capital" are the main drivers for changing from one share to another...ie, jumping onto a faster train when you assess that the momentum of the one you are on is slowing.
This is what the FMG sit and forget scenario overlooks....if you don't bother reading the train-timetable (ie, reassess the relative merit of your investment along the way) you will miss that bullet train coming through that will advance you faster to the terminus station ($550K+).
I have endeavoured to mitigate the limitation of capital by jumping trains along the way....to some success...only to watch the one I bailed out of take off again (in CTX $2.57....out $5.50). 
The success of reentry is complicated when there are so many trains speeding through and you only can use 1 ticket at a time. I have found that margin-lending has helpedto a degree...ie, more trains for the buck. Leveraging off that "set & forget stock " (in MCR 36c and holding half original parcel) that you are very confident of longerterm may prevent missing gains while rushing between platforms...and ideally the dividends will subsidise some of the transaction costs inherent....


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## Magdoran

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..



Awwww Stop the clock (STC), so you’ve discovered the Holy Grail!  


Why oh why have so many of us wasted so many years of our time trying to develop systems, styles of analysis, and even studied various financial instruments, when all we had to do was to follow your omnipotent example and instantly make millions!

You’ll be a multimillionaire soon, won’t you STC?!  And with no effort either.  No plan, no analysis, no system.  Marvellous! You just divine a sector you think is going to the stars and buy and hold!  You must be so monumentally gifted compared to the rest of us mere mortals.  The rest of us have to apply ourselves and persevere.



nizar said:


> Ok. If its that easy lets try it again. Whats your next pick?




I second nizar’s request in post 4, what’s your next pick?  It’d be great to see you pick a stock at the point of entry (no hindsight posts please), and then post when you take profits… look forward to seeing that. 



Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I thought R0n1n put up a really interesting link to a Psychological perspective on a blog which I think is relevant to this case (see the lower link to the actual blog entry – great reading!):

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7143

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/12/three-pervasive-myths-of-trading.html

P.P.S. Fully agree with Kauri:


Kauri said:


> STC...
> anything is possible with hindsight... when did you decide that a mining boom was underway.... would you have divided your $9500 between your other certainties at the time ...i.e LVL , BTV etc??


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## nizar

Kauri said:


> STC...
> anything is possible with hindsight... when did you decide that a mining boom was underway.... would you have divided your $9500 between your other certainties at the time ...i.e LVL , BTV etc??




Exactly.
I agree 100%.

Also agree about what tech said and buying back, and only recently iv realised it.
JUst because you sell something doesnt mean you banish it from the watchlist and ignore it all together.
Keep an eye and get back in on the breakout.

Just like me and AGM. I bought it in early december when it broke into 10 year highs at 40c. Initial entry 42.5c. Initial stop 38.5c (i didnt want it closing under 40c). It never got near my stop. But it just hovered at 40-45c for like 2-3 weeks, which was ages given my idiotic short term approach back then. So i dumped it at a small profit, and moved on.

Then AGM goes onto $1++.
The mistake wasnt selling it. Rather, it was not buying it back when it broke out of the 1-month range on volume into 50c and beyond.


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## nizar

Magdoran said:


> Awwww Stop the clock (STC), so you’ve discovered the Holy Grail!
> 
> 
> Why oh why have so many of us wasted so many years of our time trying to develop systems, styles of analysis, and even studied various financial instruments, when all we had to do was to follow your omnipotent example and instantly make millions!
> 
> You’ll be a multimillionaire soon, won’t you STC?!  And with no effort either.  No plan, no analysis, no system.  Marvellous! You just divine a sector you think is going to the stars and buy and hold!  You must be so monumentally gifted compared to the rest of us mere mortals.  The rest of us have to apply ourselves and persevere.
> 
> I second nizar’s request in post 4, what’s your next pick?  It’d be great to see you pick a stock at the point of entry (no hindsight posts please), and then post when you take profits… look forward to seeing that.
> 
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran
> 
> P.S. I thought R0n1n put up a really interesting link to a Psychological perspective on a blog which I think is relevant to this case (see the lower link to the actual blog entry – great reading!):
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7143
> 
> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/12/three-pervasive-myths-of-trading.html
> 
> P.P.S. Fully agree with Kauri:




Great post Mag.


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## ta2693

I do not very keen on turn $9500 into $550,000.
From my point of view, the successful share trading is to assess the possibility and outcome and  correctly evaluate the expectation value. if the expectation value is negative, I will sell. If the expectation value is positive, I will buy.I reassess my position everyday according to news, rumors, weather forecast and tech analysis. If some stock can always be valued as positive expectation value, I may hold it in very long time. hopefully some share will get from $9500 to $550,000.


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## tech/a

Moggie.

STC isnt saying he can do it nor is he saying he intends to do it.

The point he is making---hindsite or not is that it can be done *IF* you found the right stock/s and stuck to it.

I've done it,had no idea I was going to do it when I took the trades,and its on public record.

Did the same with property---had no idea that the housing boom of booms would occur when I bought my first 2 properties in 1996.

It doesnt matter HOW you do it,it does matter that you put yourself in the position to be able to take advantage of a great opportunity,if and when it arises.

Most who focus almost fanatically on analysis are more about being *right* than being *PROFITABLE*.

*Application* being the key.

Something Ive not seen a great deal of in your writings (Application of analysis)


----------



## insider

Look you have to stop looking at things like I should've done this or done that and not be happy with what you have because that's pure greed... Because in that case I should've put $5000 on PDN at 1 cent and sell them at $10... a 1000 Bagger in 4 years... that's 5 million bucks

All you're doing is suffering... what a waste of energy and time...


----------



## Magdoran

Some people only see what they want to see, and don’t really read what is printed.

How can anyone not conclude that STC is putting up an approach in answer to technical analysis and fundamental analysis?  Sure, one of the premises ventured in support of the conclusion is that STC could have achieved the” $9500 into $550,000+”, but this was clearly illustrating evidence that the objective of the argument could be achieved.  The conclusion was that you can utilise his approach and can dispense with various types of analysis and perform better.

STC clearly draws the conclusion that fundamental analysis and technical analysis are a waste of time as shown in the quotes below - These are Stop the clock’s core notions:



Stop_the_clock said:


> why do we get these T/A and F/A freak-shows charting things this way, that way and all ways an[d] cutting other members opinions down for the hell of it.  Not to mention the thousands of wasted hours learning all this garbage, and attending seminars and writing software etc…






Stop_the_clock said:


> Thats the point...no specific stock, no charting, no F/A, just pick anything within the mining industry and you have just as much chance of making serious money from it, than your next door neighbour who has spent all year attending seminars, mulling over charts and F/A etc.




He’s essentially saying that just picking a sector and holding a stock will equate with the performance of systems that have taken years to develop, hence why waste the time developing them.

This is a long bow.  It’s essentially saying “I’ve got just as much chance of becoming a millionaire because I divined a magic number for Lotto (picked a stock on a hunch in a sector I’m enthusiastic about) than someone who spends a couple of years in a business like manner developing a trading system and applying it.”

That’s clearly favouring the option of spending a couple of minutes on a hunch as opposed to years of research and development as being the preferred option, this point I would have thought was abundantly clear from the above quotes.

Also he says this which clinches the points I made earlier:



Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> …You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> …So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.





As for the fascile insult about “application of analysis”, this is testament to the belligerent and capricious attitude of the author and barely warrants a mention.  Ironically it is the author who is obsessed with being “right”, otherwise why goad others all the time and not just get on with making profits?


P.S. I think the point in this link was also not considered:

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/12/three-pervasive-myths-of-trading.html


----------



## prawn_86

i think that in a bull market a buy-and-hold strtegy is an excellent idea. 

although i do suggest research first, rather than randomly picking a stock as STC has implied, in current market conditions you see heaps of stocks which are continually pushing new highs.

selling out to make back your original investement once a stock has doubled is a way of ensuring against the possibility of a sudden drop. (insert all those sayings about money in the bank, dont make money untill you sell etc etc)

the other aspect, imo, is that many people actually enjoy trading. i for one love analysing stocks, more on a fundamental than technical level. and due to the fact that i do not rely on it for a living, the only money i have invested, is money i can ultimately afford to lose, not that im trying too! that is why i have a mixture of short and long term stocks.

you should do things that you enjoy in life, and if trading is one of them so be it.


----------



## tech/a

Moggie

You certainly do have a point with the first 2 quotes I have to agree.



> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient




But he really does have a point here I feel as MULLING is what most do with analysis --- nothing more and nothing less.



> Ironically it is the author who is obsessed with being “right”, otherwise why goad others all the time and not just get on with making profits?





*WHY??*
To discover the *essence of the application *of wisdom presented.
Not only isolated to yourself.
There are many who----"Talk the Talk but-----"

These are not personal vendetta's but genuine requests.

Every see me "Goad" (your description) Frankee?,Radge?---both are application in motion.
There are many others who both talk and walk.

Relax Moggie you have tremendous knowledge thats obvious.


----------



## wavepicker

IMO it really depends what your goals and what you really want from the market. Sure great buy and hold trades are possible. I have been lucky enough to be on the receiving end in the past.

It's not a problem getting into the market and holding, especially a bullish one, where most get unstuck and lose out is not knowing when to get out. Most pundits who are lucky enough to succesfully get out at the best time still end up losing out in the long term because they think making $$$ is easy in the market and that they can do this consistantly. The then re enter the market assuming as stock is a "bargain" because it has pulled back. This strategy of buying the dips continues to pay dividends until the next time they do it they might double up, and end catching a 3rd wave to the downside and get cleaned out.

For me the most important thing is to have a methodology that is to be CONSISTANT. This tied in with a suitable money management system. You can throw the arbitrary stops to the dogs, one has to be in tune with the market, recognize it's and flows, move with them and adjust stops accordingly. There is no easy $$ in the market, anyone who thinks there is will have some real big surprises. It takes work and effort to make CONSISTANT  winning trades, just like any other professional job and every dollar you make you richly deserve

Cheers


----------



## Magdoran

tech/a said:


> Moggie
> 
> You certainly do have a point with the first 2 quotes I have to agree.
> 
> 
> 
> But he really does have a point here I feel as MULLING is what most do with analysis --- nothing more and nothing less.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *WHY??*
> To discover the *essence of the application *of wisdom presented.
> Not only isolated to yourself.
> There are many who----"Talk the Talk but-----"
> 
> These are not personal vendetta's but genuine requests.
> 
> Every see me "Goad" (your description) Frankee?,Radge?---both are application in motion.
> There are many others who both talk and walk.
> 
> Relax Moggie you have tremendous knowledge thats obvious.






I love it when you waddle out of that “retaining wall” sand pit of yours and start quacking away.

You really need to get something fundamental through your own head.  You, (like the rest of us mere mortals) aren’t objective. To repeat a comment I made a long time ago on another thread, and this is as relevant today as it was then: 



Magdoran said:


> There’s no point in discussing anything with you tech:
> 
> You’ve got blinkers welded so firmly to your head you couldn’t even see the flash from a 10 trillion kiloton nuclear bomb going off beside you, let alone learn how to spell or punctuate.




(Re: $5000 to $50000 in two years - let the odyssey begin) 

Hence I don't know if you have ulterior motives for all your comments, but when it comes to Nick for example, you’re hardly likely to rattle his cage when your techtrader section lives on his site – it doesn’t take a genius to work that out.

What your cosy relationship is with Frank eludes me, but your obvious bias reveals itself from time to time, and the obvious absence of critical thinking or balance in this case.  

It would not surprise me if others perceive your somewhat inconsistent appraisal - launching nuclear strikes on some posters, and smooching with others, often without a scintilla of intellectual reason for it, - so one is left to conclude many of your comments are purely personal and arbitrary.  (Which is fine by me by the way, but shouldn’t be dressed up as being something “objective” when it’s patently SUBJECTIVE).


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trading, at first glance, seems trivially simple. "Buy low sell high".  

Even having done this full time for over a year, I'm still learning what I don't know and will be for years to come


----------



## nomore4s

Stop_the_clock said:


> *Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.*There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> *You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.  *
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> ..




IMO This is the problem with society nowadays, people want everything for nothing. STC wants big gains without actually doing any work for it.

A couple of questions then.
1. How do you pick your stock? Surely there has to be some research involved?
2. What happens when you pick a stock that halves in value?
3. If its so easy and simple, why haven't you done it? Or why aren't you doing it?
In the example you showed you not only didn't turn $9,500 into $550,000+, you actually made a loss! Doesn't seem that easy to me.

Sure you could get lucky with this approach and actually pick the right stock, but imo you've got just as much or more chance of picking a stock that halves in value or goes bust. You may as well go and spend $9,500 on lotto tickets or take it to the casino and pick a number on the roulette wheel and hope for the best.
Like wavepicker said there is no easy money in the markets.

Good luck to you STC if this is the approach you decide to take, but I have a feeling you start threads like this just to stir people up.


----------



## nizar

nomore4s said:


> A couple of questions then.
> 1. How do you pick your stock? Surely there has to be some research involved?
> 2. What happens when you pick a stock that halves in value?
> 3. If its so easy and simple, why haven't you done it? Or why aren't you doing it?
> In the example you showed you not only didn't turn $9,500 into $550,000+, you actually made a loss! Doesn't seem that easy to me.




Top point.
For someone who thought it was so easy.........  

Id like to see him attempt these questions, especially q4.


----------



## henry vanderhave

my brother in law made over $400,000. he bought 5000 csl shares when they listed at $2.50 per share.cost $12500 to get in.Today they are approximately $90.00 dollars per share,value now $450,000.His policy is,never sell anything.he buys quality only and holds to this day.hes annoyed they dont pay fully franked dividends.he buys for the divies.he knew they were good coming from the government.He also did same with commonwealth bank and national bank.still holding.amongst others.never sell is his way buy quality.


----------



## Julia

nomore4s said:


> IMO This is the problem with society nowadays, people want everything for nothing. STC wants big gains without actually doing any work for it.
> 
> A couple of questions then.
> 1. How do you pick your stock? Surely there has to be some research involved?
> 2. What happens when you pick a stock that halves in value?
> 3. If its so easy and simple, why haven't you done it? Or why aren't you doing it?
> In the example you showed you not only didn't turn $9,500 into $550,000+, you actually made a loss! Doesn't seem that easy to me.
> 
> Sure you could get lucky with this approach and actually pick the right stock, but imo you've got just as much or more chance of picking a stock that halves in value or goes bust. You may as well go and spend $9,500 on lotto tickets or take it to the casino and pick a number on the roulette wheel and hope for the best.
> Like wavepicker said there is no easy money in the markets.
> 
> Good luck to you STC if this is the approach you decide to take, but I have a feeling you start threads like this just to stir people up.




Exactly.  Great post.


----------



## hongwong

hmmmm  nice topic ...

After being a "fundie" and trying to learn what the chartist see in stock trading.... 

I must admit i would prefer "fundie" over charting.... maybe because i suck at charting. 

The best thing repeart over time and time again is find a great company that is under valued and then buy as much as you can.

Finding that company is the hardpart ...

Other thing that I feel chartist and fundie must do is look how the company is going.  

Like coles .. Go down to a coles super market and compare it to woolsworth ... 

i think this is great insider knowledge.

Personally I have not seen a successful chartist that I read about i can read about .... all i see is their self promotion stuff.


----------



## wayneL

hongwong said:


> Personally I have not seen a successful chartist that I read about i can read about .... all i see is their self promotion stuff.



Buy this book


----------



## doctorj

henry vanderhave said:


> His policy is,never sell anything.he buys quality only and holds to this day.



How did he go with Telstra 2?  I don't mean to have a go, but its easy to trot out examples of winners, people just love talking about their triumphs but aren't so quick to talk about losers.


----------



## laurie

The real title should have been  How to turn $9,500 into $394,815.00+ [assuming top tax rate of 46% if held for 12 months] sometimes people forget a three letter word called CGT! that is why Mr Costello has Billions of surplus cash mainly from the share market

cheers laurie


----------



## CanOz

henry vanderhave said:


> my brother in law made over $400,000. he bought 5000 csl shares when they listed at $2.50 per share.cost $12500 to get in.Today they are approximately $90.00 dollars per share,value now $450,000.His policy is,never sell anything.he buys quality only and holds to this day.hes annoyed they dont pay fully franked dividends.he buys for the divies.he knew they were good coming from the government.He also did same with commonwealth bank and national bank.still holding.amongst others.never sell is his way buy quality.




Agree, plenty of these types of stories around, a dime a dozen.

I got a mate whos uncle is sitting on a multi $million portfolio...ANZ, CBA, WOW, NAB, all blue chips too! Bought them all for a song too! He says when he goes, its all his (which incidently he couldn't care less about, more to him to just have his uncle around).

His uncle is grinning like a toothless wonder!...................because he is! 

He's 94!

Buy and hold, even if you die before you can sell.



Cheers,


----------



## michael_selway

henry vanderhave said:


> my brother in law made over $400,000. he bought 5000 csl shares when they listed at $2.50 per share.cost $12500 to get in.Today they are approximately $90.00 dollars per share,value now $450,000.His policy is,never sell anything.he buys quality only and holds to this day.hes annoyed they dont pay fully franked dividends.he buys for the divies.he knew they were good coming from the government.He also did same with commonwealth bank and national bank.still holding.amongst others.never sell is his way buy quality.




Hm CSL dropped from $50 to $10 in 2002 i think?

Do you know what his thoughts were then?

thx

MS


----------



## Nick Radge

> Hm CSL dropped from $50 to $10 in 2002 i think?
> 
> Do you know what his thoughts were then?




"I really should buy Amcor 'cause I'm using a lot of toilet paper these days..."

Good for you STC. 

For everyone else, survivorship bias at its best.


----------



## krisbarry

Cleary some are missing the point, and that is when I traded on FMG, I used no T/A or F/A, to be quite honest I had no idea what that all meant, as I was a few weeks into learning how to trade.  I just simply read the announcement on the ASX website and bought in.

FMG was still an explorer at the time that I bought in, so who ever said that only mining companies that produce, will make you squillions?  There is one big fat lie which I have exposed.

The rest comes down to luck, the Chinese, resource profit upgrades and the mining boom.  

Yep my only mistake was either selling in the first place or not re-entering at a later stage.

I sold out losing $950 which was more than enough for me, knowing what I know now, that is called a stop loss, and I placed it at a pretty good point    (10% loss is acceptable). 

*But I must stress again that I used no T/A or F/A in an intentional way, the buy and hold approach would have worked a treat*


----------



## nizar

Stop_the_clock said:


> Cleary some are missing the point, and that is when I traded on FMG, I used no T/A or F/A, to be quite honest I had no idea what that all meant, as I was a few weeks into learning how to trade.  I just simply read the announcement on the ASX website and bought in.
> 
> FMG was still an explorer at the time that I bought in, so who ever said that only mining companies that produce, will make you squillions?  There is one big fat lie which I have exposed.
> 
> The rest comes down to luck, the Chinese, resource profit upgrades and the mining boom.
> 
> Yep my only mistake was either selling in the first place or not re-entering at a later stage.
> 
> I sold out losing $950 which was more than enough for me, knowing what I know now, that is called a stop loss, and I placed it at a pretty good point    (10% loss is acceptable).
> 
> *But I must stress again that I used no T/A or F/A in an intentional way, the buy and hold approach would have worked a treat*




STC.

Clearly you have missed the point.

Several professionals in this thread, i repeat *professionals*, like Nick and Mag, have tried to shed some light, that *buy and hold random stocks isnt a viable strategy *but still you havent understood.

There are, i think about, 1700 stocks on the ASX.
How many 50-baggers in the last 2.5years?
Only FMG?
Probably.
That's 1/1700, so 0.05% chance.

*Does that sound like an edge to you?*

Theres no such thing as easy money on the markets.

Note that FMG had a 40ish% pullback last year from $10 to about $6.


----------



## nizar

Maybe we should start threads about all the bullmarket champions?

PDN i bought $9500 worth in 2004 for 1c.
Thats 950,000 shares.

So worth about $8million. A bit more than $950,000.

How about HDR from 7c and OXR from 7c?


----------



## wavepicker

Stop_the_clock said:


> *But I must stress again that I used no T/A or F/A in an intentional way, the buy and hold approach would have worked a treat*





STC, I don't think anyone would be disputing that buy and hold can work, 
assuming you are lucky and patient enough to hold the right stock.

Equally though there are times when you could be holding any stock for a very very long time before you turn a profit.

Just ask the investors who bought Nikkei stocks in 1989/90 or even just before then, they would be now sitting on 80% losses 12 years later, and even to this day would not have recovered half their losses. Or for that matter the NASDAQ stocks which are still languishing well off their 2000 highs.

 There are no guarrantees long term holds will work out.  After the crash of 1929, it took holders of a lot of  bluechips  bluechips 25 years to recoup their $$$. Do you you know what most did thereafter??? They sold. Thereafter those same companies kept on rising. Ofcourse most of the holders of the stock are all deceased!!

ANYTHING is possible in the market.



Cheers


----------



## Julia

nizar said:


> Maybe we should start threads about all the bullmarket champions?
> 
> PDN i bought $9500 worth in 2004 for 1c.
> Thats 950,000 shares.
> 
> So worth about $8million. A bit more than $950,000.
> 
> How about HDR from 7c and OXR from 7c?




Do you still have those PDN, Nizar?


----------



## nizar

Julia said:


> Do you still have those PDN, Nizar?




No i didnt buy PDN at 1c.
I was just trying to prove a point.


----------



## krisbarry

nizar said:


> STC.
> 
> Clearly you have missed the point.
> 
> Several professionals in this thread, i repeat *professionals*, like Nick and Mag, have tried to shed some light, that *buy and hold random stocks isnt a viable strategy *but still you havent understood.
> 
> There are, i think about, 1700 stocks on the ASX.
> How many 50-baggers in the last 2.5years?
> Only FMG?
> Probably.
> That's 1/1700, so 0.05% chance.
> 
> *Does that sound like an edge to you?*
> 
> Theres no such thing as easy money on the markets.
> 
> Note that FMG had a 40ish% pullback last year from $10 to about $6.




True, and I am giving you an example of how its possible to pick a winner at random, just like lotto numbers and make what professionals make with no effort at all.

There is always 2 sides to look at things.  Many professionals make big, big mistakes too.


----------



## DB008

Very good arguments so far. 
Conspiracy comes to mind. I guess everyone has heard stories how a monkey throws a dart into a stock listings page in the financial review and usually out performes most managed funds!!!

I'm thinking of getting some Legend Mining (LEG) shares. A steal at 8 cents a share. Buy $1000 worth and l'll let u guys know in 2 years where they are.

 I was going to do this with Tanami Gold, but 1 year on, they are still hovering between 14-20 cents.


----------



## henry vanderhave

Michael.When the CSL shares went down he was not concerned  at all.Quality share and hes in for the dividends.And he loathes to pay CGT
.and in the long run they seem to always rebound.He wouldnt touch explorers and small miners --cause they dont pay dividends-simple. Hes not a traderon short term movement looks at the bigger picture .thanks


----------



## nioka

DB008 said:


> I'm thinking of getting some Legend Mining (LEG) shares. A steal at 8 cents a share. Buy $1000 worth and l'll let u guys know in 2 years where they are.
> .




Why not include PRE at 3.6c. I put 20000 in the bottom drawer at 3c. Any more suggestions?


----------



## mime

On the flipside you could have done it with NEO and made a massive loss. I'm doing the same thing with BPT. I bought at around $0.46 and hoping it reaches the $5 region in the future.

Speaking of FMG. I was reading the little research thing on comsec and the companies future earnings are -500% or so. Are they sitting on a huge asset or something?


----------



## Sean K

I threw a dart at the dot com board in the 90s and it hit EISA. Went from $1.00 to $4.00 to administration....

Why didn't that turn me into a millionaire STC?  

Actually, I'm still struggling with the point of the thread. My brain must be still fried from the weekend. Are you saying that we should all just be throwing darts, and hold in hope?


----------



## krisbarry

DB008 said:


> I guess everyone has heard stories how a monkey throws a dart into a stock listings page in the financial review and usually out performes most managed funds!!!
> 
> .




Too true, just like the monkeys get taught how to collect bananas, so do we humans get taught how to collect shares.

Some monkeys learn how to trade bananas and others buy and hold for a rainy day

Guess it depends on which banana palms have the biggest and ripest bunches, some monkeys would use considerable time and brain power casing palm after palm in search for the best, others would just climb up one palm and hope for the best.

No answers is right or wrong, sometimes its just luck of the draw!


----------



## dj_420

mime said:


> Speaking of FMG. I was reading the little research thing on comsec and the companies future earnings are -500% or so. Are they sitting on a huge asset or something?




only a couple of billion tonnes of iron ore


----------



## krisbarry

At this stage we have no idea how many people owning FMG shares have acheived what results, but lets just say a few thousand people since 2004 have achieved it with no T/A, no F/A and simply bought and held.

So for those that think only 1 or 2 stocks do this, that might be true, but the end result is that thousands benefit, so that does skew the stats in my favor a little more don't you think?


----------



## the barry

kennas said:


> I threw a dart at the dot com board in the 90s and it hit EISA. Went from $1.00 to $4.00 to administration....
> 
> Why didn't that turn me into a millionaire STC?
> 
> Actually, I'm still struggling with the point of the thread. My brain must be still fried from the weekend. Are you saying that we should all just be throwing darts, and hold in hope?





Officially the worst thread ever. What a waste of time.


----------



## the barry

Stop_the_clock said:


> At this stage we have no idea how many people owning FMG shares have acheived what results, but lets just say a few thousand people since 2004 have achieved it with no T/A, no F/A and simply bought and held.
> 
> So for those that think only 1 or 2 stocks do this, that might be true, but the end result is that thousands benefit, so that does skew the stats in my favor a little more don't you think?




I still can't work out the point you are trying to make. Can you please explain in plain english.


----------



## doctorj

There are so many of these "make lots of money with next to no effort or capital" here at ASF and more are appearing all the time. I think it's a symptom of so much easy money being made in the market. People think anyone can do it, afterall if someone can come in and bag a stock like BMN straight off the bat, its natural for them to think themselves geniuses and the game easy.

Nick's right, this is just survivorship bias played in near real time. With the coming of the bears, these type of posts will disappear into the ether as these 'successful' investors and traders decide they're better off playing golf or buying property.


----------



## krisbarry

The point I am making is that for many people its possible to make huge amounts of money using no method at all except for the buy and hold approach.

Even a monkey can be trained how to buy a stock and sit on it for a few years.

But again ...we humans love to complicate things with charts, and theories, and forumlas etc.


----------



## krisbarry

Buying any of the 4 major banks some 5 years ago would have resulted in the same approach....massive profits, with no effort required.

No charting, No T/A, no F/A

just throwing out 4 more examples of how even a monkey can make money


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..





Good luck with that in a trading sideways market!

one system will work great in one kind of market, don't forget that


----------



## Sean K

Stop_the_clock said:


> Buying any of the 4 major banks some 5 years ago would have resulted in the same approach....massive profits, with no effort required.
> 
> No charting, No T/A, no F/A
> 
> just throwing out 4 more examples of how even a monkey can make money



That's not what you are saying STC. You have actively decided to buy one of the big 4 banks in this example. That's more than just a plain lucky buy anything and hold approach. You have to have known which are the big 4 banks for a start. A monkey wouldn't know that. Maybe.


----------



## the barry

Stop_the_clock said:


> Buying any of the 4 major banks some 5 years ago would have resulted in the same approach....massive profits, with no effort required.
> 
> No charting, No T/A, no F/A
> 
> just throwing out 4 more examples of how even a monkey can make money




So how do you know to buy those banks? You just wake up and think, you know what? Im going to buy the banks today and come back in ten years and i will be rich. Can you try adding something of substance to your point of view?


----------



## prawn_86

not wanting to speak for STC, but this is how i understand it:

he is saying that in current bullish conditions ppl can tend to over complicate things by trading and charting etc etc when after a bit of simple research a buy and hold strategy can pay off very well.

i guess it is as much of a psychological thread as opposed to trading strategies. EG - why do some ppl prefer trading to buying and holding when results could be the same/similar (maintaining current market conditions)


----------



## krisbarry

the barry said:


> Can you try adding something of substance to your point of view?




Substance is what we humans love to add to life, just to make ourselves feel important and in control.

If we add a chart and a theory, then we are in total control of a stock!

Not so...the monkey could also achieve the same results with no substance, no chart, and no theory.

*Lets just say X stock rose $5 in 1 year...It was $1 and rose to $5*

The monkey buys in on day 1 and sits on it...he goes about his daily business and checks it 1 year later, to find he is 5X more wealthier.

The human buys the same stock on day 1...charts it this way, charts it that way, sells it a few times over that year and buys it again a few times.  Discusses the stock on a few forums, and anayalsis it to the nth degree.  
Then 1 year later the human checks the account balance and alas...he is 5 X more wealthier too.

But who is the smarter of the 2, most would say the human, because he is in control....wrong....the monkey is cause the stock didn't control him, he got on with his life while the human wasted it by mulling over it, discussing it, charting it etc etc.  Thats my theory!


----------



## the barry

Stop_the_clock said:


> Substance is what we humans love to add to life, just to make ourselves feel important and in control.
> 
> If we add a chart and a theory, then we are in total control of a stock!
> 
> Not so...the monkey could also achieve the same results with no substance, no chart, and no theory.
> 
> *Lets just say X stock rose $5 in 1 year...*
> 
> The monkey buys in on day 1 and sits on it...he goes about his daily business and checks it 1 year later, to find he is 5X more wealthier.
> 
> The human buys the same stock on day 1...charts it this way, charts it that way, sells it a few times over that year and buys it again a few times.  Discusses the stock on a few forums, and anayalsis it to the nth degree.
> Then 1 year later the human checks the account balance and alas...he is 5 X more wealthier too.
> 
> But who is the smarter of the 2, most would say the human, because he is in control....wrong....the monkey is cause the stock didn't control him, he got on with his life while the human wasted it by mulling over it, discussing it, charting it etc etc.  Thats my theory!




I still don't see what your point is? What is this stock x you talk of? In hindsight I could say you should buy any stock that has gone up x amount and just sit on it. Without the power of hindsight, how do you pick your stock x?


----------



## Kauri

prawn_86 said:


> not wanting to speak for STC, but this is how i understand it:
> 
> he is saying that in current bullish conditions ppl can tend to over complicate things by trading and charting etc etc when after a bit of simple research a buy and hold strategy can pay off very well.
> 
> i guess it is as much of a psychological thread as opposed to trading strategies. EG - why do some ppl prefer trading to buying and holding when results could be the same/similar (maintaining current market conditions)




  Because these threads allways contain the phrases ..."'could have...would have".... hell even I would have cleaned up at the races if they had only delivered Sundays paper a day earlier!!!!
  Don't talk about what might have been, if the strategy is so good and obviously foolproof, lets have an example now, real-time, that we all can follow..... .. or not.  ..


----------



## prawn_86

Kauri said:


> Don't talk about what might have been, if the strategy is so good and obviously foolproof, lets have an example now, real-time, that we all can follow..... .. or not.  ..




obviously only my opinions dyor etc etc,
but i believe TMR shows heaps of potential especially as they already have cashflow.
and FNT is a bit more speculative but heaps of upside from both tech and fundy view

lets come back to this post in 2 years and see lol


----------



## disarray

the barry said:


> So how do you know to buy those banks? You just wake up and think, you know what? Im going to buy the banks today and come back in ten years and i will be rich. Can you try adding something of substance to your point of view?




to be fair to the guy, there are some blindingly obvious choices which you know almost HAVE to take off. when i was 17 years old they privatised the commonwealth bank and i didn't know the first thing about the markets, but i knew it was going to make a pile of money. i even told my old man to buy some shares. same with MYOB. same with T1 and T3 (T2 was an obvious dud). some companies just have a stable, successful model as well as the support of the public. charting is irrelevant in this case, buy on fundamentals and public/market sentiment.

people saying "just wait till a sideways market" seem to be missing the point STC is making that buy and hold means "buy and hold". sideways markets are irrelevant, bear markets are irrelevant, because the overwhelming trend for markets is UP, and as more of the world modernises and more money is flowing through the economy, the stronger this upward trend will be.

for smaller stocks, spec stocks or whatever then T/A and F/A are vital, but for something that starts in a strong (almost dominant position as was the case with MYOB) then you have an almost guaranteed money tree if you invest with a modicum of sense.

but yes, i agree, the "get rich quick" crowd do love these sorts of threads to encourage each other. if they make money, good for them.


----------



## dj_420

Stop_the_clock said:


> Substance is what we humans love to add to life, just to make ourselves feel important and in control.
> 
> If we add a chart and a theory, then we are in total control of a stock!
> 
> Not so...the monkey could also achieve the same results with no substance, no chart, and no theory.
> 
> *Lets just say X stock rose $5 in 1 year...It was $1 and rose to $5*
> 
> The monkey buys in on day 1 and sits on it...he goes about his daily business and checks it 1 year later, to find he is 5X more wealthier.
> 
> The human buys the same stock on day 1...charts it this way, charts it that way, sells it a few times over that year and buys it again a few times.  Discusses the stock on a few forums, and anayalsis it to the nth degree.
> Then 1 year later the human checks the account balance and alas...he is 5 X more wealthier too.
> 
> But who is the smarter of the 2, most would say the human, because he is in control....wrong....the monkey is cause the stock didn't control him, he got on with his life while the human wasted it by mulling over it, discussing it, charting it etc etc.  Thats my theory!




your starting to talk about two different things TA and FA.

yes in theory you could pick any stock and hope that a rising tide lifts the sp, but you could use both FA and TA to help increase your chances of selecting a stock that will increase in multiples.

i think if you combine your theory with some sound research you are talking about what is called "long term investors".

take your FMG eg, if three years ago, you researched and though FMG has some great iron ore grounds, future forecasts would have indicated strong future demand, sound mgt etc then you could have bought long term.

same goes with PDN, 5 years or more ago borshoff predicted a future demand for uranium he acquired many uranium assets cheaply and went about business. you could have bought PDN at 5 cents also if you did this research.

now because there is such great demand for mining stocks, selections have to be a little wiser and smarter as many sp have already increased by multiples. i just dont buy your "buy any stock" theory and it will go up.

what if you bought onetel, hih, telstra 2 float, westpoint.


----------



## Magdoran

Stop_the_clock said:


> Cleary some are missing the point, and that is when I traded on FMG, I used no T/A or F/A, to be quite honest I had no idea what that all meant, as I was a few weeks into learning how to trade.  I just simply read the announcement on the ASX website and bought in.
> 
> FMG was still an explorer at the time that I bought in, so who ever said that only mining companies that produce, will make you squillions?  There is one big fat lie which I have exposed.
> 
> The rest comes down to luck, the Chinese, resource profit upgrades and the mining boom.
> 
> Yep my only mistake was either selling in the first place or not re-entering at a later stage.
> 
> I sold out losing $950 which was more than enough for me, knowing what I know now, that is called a stop loss, and I placed it at a pretty good point    (10% loss is acceptable).
> 
> *But I must stress again that I used no T/A or F/A in an intentional way, the buy and hold approach would have worked a treat*



Let’s look at the logical extension of STC’s argument – Here’s his essential proposition:

•	Everyone has a chance of making a billion dollars if a series of favourable outcomes occur to yield it.  True.  
•	Further, that if you enter at the right time in the right stock, and exit at the right time that you can make millions.  True.  
•	Additionally, that you can succeed without any kind of cohesive analysis/method/system.  True.

The conclusion drawn from these premises is that using a random method is superior to using technical or fundamental analysis and implies system approaches such as using a positive expectancy model are a waste of time - therefore you should pick a sector you think for whatever reason (rumour, hunch, media report, tip, random dice roll), and then buy and hold a stock without monitoring it, and reject trend or fundamental styles.  False.


This perspective is naïve and ill-conceived.  It has a glaring assumption at its core, and that is that financial markets are completely random, and that market action is necessarily unpredictable all the time.  The real question then is if markets are random or not, and if it is possible to develop and edge using various methods.  

If markets are random, then you may as well forget ever reading ASF again or reading anything about stocks or markets and just buy lottery tickets regularly like the average punter, and/or go down to the casino: 

I once knew a guy when I was at University who had this ambitious (but not very original) idea to make a fortune.  You make a bet with a defined stake (position size), if you win you keep betting the same amount, but if you lose you double your stake.  If you keep losing you keep doubling until you win.  

He continued to do this for a few months and raked in some good returns.  Each time he lost he kept doubling till he won, then returned to his original stake and continued till he’d made enough profit.

Then one day I saw him and asked how the betting scheme was going.  He became evasive, and I think his the colour in his face drained a bit.  I don’t know exactly how much he lost, but put it this way, there were quite a debtors around looking for him.

What STC is unwittingly venturing is in part the “random walk” school, and is along the lines of the now banned poster “onemind”; that gaining wealth is completely random and based purely on luck, and that essentially any attempt to develop an edge is necessarily fruitless.  It’s kind of a fatalistic perspective on life, that in effect that we have no real input into the course of our lives, verging on a deterministic model of sorts.

Have a look both at the thread, and especially at the article arguing this random market line for a perspective on the logic behind this:

http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6580

I reject this random view of not only financial markets, but the way the world and our universe works.  I believe that the world and markets are ordered (especially if you know how to look at them the right way).  Einstein for instance was able to distil some quite involved notions into a simple formula – E=MC2.  This for me constitutes evidence that there is a distinct order to the universe, and consequently in markets.

I regularly see order in the markets with my style of analysis, and believe in Mark Douglas’ axioms (just read through my many posts on this subject for evidence of market order – look at wavepicker’s work too for that matter).

Hey, of course I accept could be totally wrong and be totally deceiving myself since we’re dealing with a subject at the philosophical end of the spectrum, and what actually exits may diverge from my perceptions (and even the concept of existence in itself - especially if you really want to be an existentialist – has some involved question marks over it).  

This quadrant of thought I think is so far above humanity in its complexity and far reaching nature that all any of us can do is to make our best shot guess and play our hunch, so ironically I accept that “anything is possible” one level.

However, that doesn’t mean that we should abandon everything we believe in or hold to be true on a whim, and be ruled by the notion that it’s all too hard, or accept defeat and become passive in life.  This is an option, but not one I personally choose to take like STC has embraced.  I choose to forge my destiny, especially in the face of adversity, and am determined to rise to each challenge, win or lose as it comes.  But this is a personal choice.  I choose to research, reappraise, consider, experiment, question, listen, probe, reflect, imagine, formulate, act, develop, refine, and to think for myself independently.

All of us must be guided by our conscience.  To an extent I think the scientific model (prove disprove), and an attempt to be objective in observation/analysis/experimentation/theory has distinct advantages over non scientific approaches, but with some qualification.  There is an “art” to most pursuits, and because the world is so complex, sometimes gifted people can break new ground and challenge orthodox thinking at the brink of knowledge.  Knowing or guessing where these break throughs may be and when they will occur is part of the challenge.


Things to consider:

There is no argument that “buy and hold” approaches can and in many cases are successful and profitable approaches.  There is also no argument that effective Fundamental Analysis can constitute an edge.  STC seems to be arguing that fundamental analysis does not constitute an edge.  He rejects the notion that gifted people defied the odds consistently.

I agree fully with wavepicker’s argument that the challenge is to develop consistent methods.  I can’t see how STC’s model does this.  It is the antithesis of positive expectancy.  It is a buy and hope strategy.  It embraces the idea that you may as well put a blindfold on and throw a dart at a board, and that this is equal to all other methods in its chance of success.

People like George Soros for instance had incredible success just by looking at the flaws in financial and economic systems by analysing them and exploiting the weaknesses in various systems.  Just read though his works on the “Alchemy of finance” and “Soros on Soros”, especially concepts such as “reflexivity” and “dynamic disequilibrium” for example.  Add to that the successful formula ventured by Buffett and Graham for instance in the fundamental quadrant of analysis.

If you accept the logical extension of STC’s (random walk) notions that these people become millionaires randomly on pure luck alone, then please disregard everything I say or have said.  If however you do think that their methods contributed even a scintilla to their success, this puts serious question marks over the life casino proposition at the heart of the poorly constructed deterministic styled philosophy being pedalled by STC right now.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. At some stage I intend to really assault onemind’s and other random walk exponents notions that life the universe and markets are random.


----------



## disarray

Magdoran said:


> At some stage I intend to really assault onemind’s and other random walk exponents notions that life the universe and markets are random.




not random, chaotic


----------



## Magdoran

disarray said:


> not random, chaotic



No, random walk theory was what I was referring to.  

Chaos theory is a radically different model, and one I pretty much subscribe to.  I hold random walk theory is not of this discipline.  In fact some of the logic of chaos theory I would venture actually conflicts with random walk notions. 

Just read through my posts on the subject; especially consider my reference to Heisenberg’s uncertainly principle which I subscribe to.

Mag 

P.S. thanks smarty pants!


----------



## disarray

oh i agree completely with what you are saying. just pointing out the nature of the beast is all.

p.s. you're welcome


----------



## CanOz

STC's theory can be tested, using a random program in AB. I'm not exactly sure how to do it, and not inclined to waste my time on it given my focus on trying to develop a profitable system....sheesh...talk about losing focus.

You could ask AB to pick 5 stocks randomly 10 years ago, say investing a set amount, and then hold.

Cheers,


----------



## Magdoran

disarray said:


> to be fair to the guy, there are some blindingly obvious choices which you know almost HAVE to take off. when i was 17 years old they privatised the commonwealth bank and i didn't know the first thing about the markets, but i knew it was going to make a pile of money. i even told my old man to buy some shares. same with MYOB. same with T1 and T3 (T2 was an obvious dud). some companies just have a stable, successful model as well as the support of the public. charting is irrelevant in this case, buy on fundamentals and public/market sentiment.
> 
> people saying "just wait till a sideways market" seem to be missing the point STC is making that buy and hold means "buy and hold". sideways markets are irrelevant, bear markets are irrelevant, because the overwhelming trend for markets is UP, and as more of the world modernises and more money is flowing through the economy, the stronger this upward trend will be.
> 
> for smaller stocks, spec stocks or whatever then T/A and F/A are vital, but for something that starts in a strong (almost dominant position as was the case with MYOB) then you have an almost guaranteed money tree if you invest with a modicum of sense.
> 
> but yes, i agree, the "get rich quick" crowd do love these sorts of threads to encourage each other. if they make money, good for them.



Complete sophistry at its worst.  You’d have been the guy buying Just before the 1929 Crash at the peak and holding for decades as wavepicker pointed out to get your money back.

How did you know T2 was a dud by random dart throwing?  Many people got caught in that little venture and are still sitting on losses.


----------



## mark70920

I played day trader for a couple of weeks after sitting on a good stock for a year (VRE) on which I made a tidy profit , gave most of the profit back in the couple of weeks of impatient madness. If I stay patient I would have done well as VRE started to fly when I sold.

I lack both the time and knowledge to day trade , so I have gone back to the long investment game. Put my chips AAR this time , plan to hold for 2 to 5 years , I brought in at 5.8 and 7.2 so already in the black. I will not try to obsess to much about it and hopefully it will pay off in few years time


----------



## disarray

Magdoran said:


> Complete sophistry at its worst.  You’d have been the guy buying Just before the 1929 Crash at the peak and holding for decades as wavepicker pointed out to get your money back.




not really. i'm not advocating the theory of 

1. buy a random stock
2. wait
3. ???
4. profit

what i am pointing out is that opportunities come along which have an extremely high probability of success attached to them. buying into these opportunities (bank floats, infrastructure floats etc.) and holding is often a very safe and profitable venture. going on the original premise of "turn $10k into $500k", purchasing shares in these "golden opportunity" stocks and holding is a good way to achieve this outcome.



> How did you know T2 was a dud by random dart throwing?  Many people got caught in that little venture and are still sitting on losses.




once again i don't subscribe to randomness. the market is a chaotic system (like the weather) with a range of indicators demonstrating probabilities of a certain outcome. what we do is analyse the probability and go with the risk / reward profile that suits us best.

as for T2 i didn't need any indication, it just felt overvalued. the offer price was obviously too high for what it was worth, there was too much euphoria and spin and the sheeple were clamouring to get on board. thats a big fat warning sign to me. as many people on this board are fond of saying, psychology does (and should) play a major part in every investment decision you make.


----------



## motorway

CanOz said:


> STC's theory can be tested, using a random program in AB. I'm not exactly sure how to do it, and not inclined to waste my time on it given my focus on trying to develop a profitable system....sheesh...talk about losing focus.
> 
> You could ask AB to pick 5 stocks randomly 10 years ago, say investing a set amount, and then hold.
> 
> Cheers,




Well If your system is random entry + Buy and hold

You would have to test  every possible combination of 5 stocks in the total universe,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, And the results would be ?

A) better than the XAO
B) worse than the XAO
C) Same 

What ever it was ... I am sure it would be less than satisfactory..

It is really an equal weighted whole mkt portfolio..

............

You have to buy the whole universe because there are no defining entry criteria.. ( No TA & No FA )

So the benchmark you would want to beat is an index fund...

motorway


----------



## Magdoran

disarray said:


> not really. i'm not advocating the theory of
> 
> 1. buy a random stock
> 2. wait
> 3. ???
> 4. profit
> 
> what i am pointing out is that opportunities come along which have an extremely high probability of success attached to them. buying into these opportunities (bank floats, infrastructure floats etc.) and holding is often a very safe and profitable venture. going on the original premise of "turn $10k into $500k", purchasing shares in these "golden opportunity" stocks and holding is a good way to achieve this outcome.
> 
> 
> 
> once again i don't subscribe to randomness. the market is a chaotic system (like the weather) with a range of indicators demonstrating probabilities of a certain outcome. what we do is analyse the probability and go with the risk / reward profile that suits us best.
> 
> as for T2 i didn't need any indication, it just felt overvalued. the offer price was obviously too high for what it was worth, there was too much euphoria and spin and the sheeple were clamouring to get on board. thats a big fat warning sign to me. as many people on this board are fond of saying, psychology does (and should) play a major part in every investment decision you make.



Ahhh, now that’s a different proposition…


Fully agree with high probability strategies ala Douglas’ notion of having a “probabilistic” mindset.

Ok, I misread your argument then, I thought you were defending STC’s line of argument.

I tend to think there is a lot of merit in the chaos model, but with some refinements.  I certainly agree with taking into account risk to reward.

Agree with the notion of “feeling” the market out at times, I’ve found that when that intuition warning flashes to sit up and listen to it.  Sure, psychology is a central element in the mix from where I sit.

Torpedo withdrawn (hahaha). 


Mag


----------



## CanOz

motorway said:


> Well If your system is random entry + Buy and hold
> 
> You would have to test  every possible combination of 5 stocks in the total universe,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, And the results would be ?
> 
> A) better than the XAO
> B) worse than the XAO
> C) Same
> 
> What ever it was ... I am sure it would be less than satisfactory..
> 
> It is really an equal weighted whole mkt portfolio..
> 
> ............
> 
> You have to buy the whole universe because there are no defining entry criteria.. ( No TA & No FA )
> 
> So the benchmark you would want to beat is an index fund...
> 
> motorway




You only have to buy until your capital is gone. So you pick 5 random stocks that have prices 10 years ago. You allocate the same amount of capital to each of them. Once your money is gone you cannot buy any more.

If you could figure out a scan to pick the stocks using the random number function, you could scan the ASX 10 years ago. It picks 5 stocks and then do the math. Do this 10 times and work out the average P/L....

Cheers,


----------



## wavepicker

I personally subscribe to the notion that there is order to the markets.   That is not to say there is always ACCURACY, but certainly order. How can this be proven??

Simple, various patterns/patterns of the trend REPEAT at various timeframes. These same patterns that appear on 1 minute bar charts also appear on the larger timeframes too.  There can be subjectiveness in terms of interpretation of these patterns, and sometimes they simply don’t work, and other times they have an uncanny way of alerting you to the probability of future direction of the market. But they are there.

They can be looking at you in the face, not all the time but they are there.  Fibonacci Trading Day/Calendar counts forming Symmetrical formations are there too. Such that very often  each side for example of a pattern forming a symmetrical triangle can be counted in terms of Fibonacci numbers or multiples of Fibonacci numbers:-

1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89 ……etc

It’s there, it’s always been there, and hidden so well that most don’t even bother to look and somehow integrate it within their own methodology.
Pick up a chart, use some imagination and look at all the possibilities

Cheers


----------



## nizar

CanOz said:


> You only have to buy until your capital is gone. So you pick 5 random stocks that have prices 10 years ago. You allocate the same amount of capital to each of them. Once your money is gone you cannot buy any more.
> 
> If you could figure out a scan to pick the stocks using the random number function, you could scan the ASX 10 years ago. It picks 5 stocks and then do the math. Do this 10 times and work out the average P/L....
> 
> Cheers,




10 times would not be statistically significant.
Not even close.
MonteCarlo it and do it 10,000 times IMO.


----------



## disarray

Magdoran said:


> Ok, I misread your argument then, I thought you were defending STC’s line of argument.




i am in no way defending his "pick a stock! any stock!" proposition, however his point that buying and holding negates the need for constant T/A is valid, as is his point that patience is definately a virtue in the investment game.

however ignoring F/A in this investment scenario is madness. buying into a random company running around in the middle of assend nowhere looking for minerals then leaving it alone for 3 years is just asking for a tax writeoff.

picking a solid stock for long term investment purposes requires F/A (or blindingly obvious "buy me" signs) or you are just pissing your money up against the wall. but i am just preaching to the choir here 



> Torpedo withdrawn (hahaha)




appreciated


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> 10 times would not be statistically significant.
> Not even close.
> MonteCarlo it and do it 10,000 times IMO.


----------



## krisbarry

wavepicker said:


> I personally subscribe to the notion that there is order to the markets.




What a load of tripe...the markets are chaotic and make very little sense. 

How for 1 minute can you define the actions of millions of traders.

Some buy, some sell and some hold, for all types of reasons...to simply say the market is ordered is foolish IMO.

Lets say 5 holders of 1 stock, sell for a number of reasons...but all reasons had nothing to do with the stock, nor the fundamentals...they all sold for personal reasons.

stock seller number 1: Got into a car crash and needed funds to repair car

stock seller number 2: Lost their job and needed to pay bills

stock seller number 3: Sold as they needed funds to buy a new car

stock seller number 4: Needed to fund back surgery

stock seller number 5: Died and shares were sold on their behalf.

How is all of the above ordered....its not...the world if full of chaos


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Stop_the_clock said:


> Substance is what we humans love to add to life, just to make ourselves feel important and in control.
> 
> If we add a chart and a theory, then we are in total control of a stock!
> 
> Not so...the monkey could also achieve the same results with no substance, no chart, and no theory.
> 
> *Lets just say X stock rose $5 in 1 year...It was $1 and rose to $5*
> 
> The monkey buys in on day 1 and sits on it...he goes about his daily business and checks it 1 year later, to find he is 5X more wealthier.
> 
> The human buys the same stock on day 1...charts it this way, charts it that way, sells it a few times over that year and buys it again a few times.  Discusses the stock on a few forums, and anayalsis it to the nth degree.
> Then 1 year later the human checks the account balance and alas...he is 5 X more wealthier too.
> 
> But who is the smarter of the 2, most would say the human, because he is in control....wrong....the monkey is cause the stock didn't control him, he got on with his life while the human wasted it by mulling over it, discussing it, charting it etc etc.  Thats my theory!




Stop the clock

if you pay no attention to the direction of the market how do u know which way to trade you are full of holes!

just buy you saying go long is based on the fact of you knowing there is a bull market right now which is information you have picked up.

it all good and easy to do that now, i would love to see your strategy in action when we have a bear market. you will not even know which way to go, your a true gambler.

let me tell you anyone that thinks they are in control of any market will end up broke damn quick.

TA is a guide to understanding what people are thinking. gives you awnsers to questions you ask the market.

P.S I would love to see a monkey open a account!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Stop_the_clock said:


> What a load of tripe...the markets are chaotic and make very little sense.
> 
> How for 1 minute can you define the actions of millions of traders.
> 
> Some buy, some sell and some hold, for all types of reasons...to simply say the market is ordered is foolish IMO.
> 
> Lets say 5 holders of 1 stock, sell for a number of reasons...but all reasons had nothing to do with the stock, nor the fundamentals...they all sold for personal reasons.
> 
> stock seller number 1: Got into a car crash and needed funds to repair car
> 
> stock seller number 2: Lost their job and needed to pay bills
> 
> stock seller number 3: Sold as they needed funds to buy a new car
> 
> stock seller number 4: Needed to fund back surgery
> 
> stock seller number 5: Died and shares were sold on their behalf.
> 
> How is all of the above ordered....its not...the world if full of chaos




STC,

you say markets move in no direction with out any meaning so how do u make money if they move all over the place. they have to move up (*in a direction*) for you to make money! 

if this is truly what you think i wish u all the best

look at this chart and tell me if it random clutter with no direction.

if prices move with out direction what hell is that price doing? it must only be a once off hey................


----------



## motorway

nizar said:


> 10 times would not be statistically significant.
> Not even close.
> MonteCarlo it and do it 10,000 times IMO.




exactly


You could buy stocks until you run out of money
But what stocks ?

And how would that be representative ?

Hardly inform Us to the merits of the "system"

People who believe mkts are random or life is just random.
That random entries and actions are optimal
Is  a good reason why there is as much opportunity as there is..



What People Buy and sell  is Perceived risk
Though many might not realize it

The right risk automatically
generates the return

No Perceived  risk No return


motorway


----------



## Temjin

I simply glanced the first post from OP and several subsequent posts....

Is this thread a joke???  

Are you being serious here Stop_the_Clock?

I say we all stopped arguing and let him continue to play with his money. End of story.


----------



## Magdoran

Stop_the_clock said:


> What a load of tripe...the markets are chaotic and make very little sense.
> 
> How for 1 minute can you define the actions of millions of traders.
> 
> Some buy, some sell and some hold, for all types of reasons...to simply say the market is ordered is foolish IMO.
> 
> Lets say 5 holders of 1 stock, sell for a number of reasons...but all reasons had nothing to do with the stock, nor the fundamentals...they all sold for personal reasons.
> 
> stock seller number 1: Got into a car crash and needed funds to repair car
> 
> stock seller number 2: Lost their job and needed to pay bills
> 
> stock seller number 3: Sold as they needed funds to buy a new car
> 
> stock seller number 4: Needed to fund back surgery
> 
> stock seller number 5: Died and shares were sold on their behalf.
> 
> How is all of the above ordered....its not...the world if full of chaos



I think you’re getting in way out of your depth here STC.

I think disarray (love that handle!) is on to something.  STC, what exactly do you understand the difference to be between random and chaotic?  Are you not venturing a random walk notion?  I saw nothing to indicate a chaos model in what you said.

disarray made a good point about probabilities:



disarray said:


> …i don't subscribe to randomness. the market is a chaotic system (like the weather) with a range of indicators demonstrating probabilities of a certain outcome. what we do is analyse the probability and go with the risk / reward profile that suits us best.




Hence disarray concludes: 



disarray said:


> … ignoring F/A in this investment scenario is madness. buying into a random company running around in the middle of assend nowhere looking for minerals then leaving it alone for 3 years is just asking for a tax writeoff.




I fully agree with this perspective.

STC, you’re changing your tune midway, but without understanding why.  I don’t think you’ve thought this through enough.  You need to understand the chasm of difference between random walk theory (which is what you were arguing at the start) and chaos theory.  They are not the same thing.  They are poles apart.  You can’t have it both ways.  You really should determine which camp you’re in if you’re going to venture such opinions so strongly, don’t you think?  (No problem with you changing your mind and developing, but at least know your stuff when you wave that red flag of yours around, huh?)

You’re concluding flatly there is no order to the markets.  The Chaos model doesn’t equate with randomness or necessarily exclude order.  If you think about Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, this deals with order (known positions) and randomness (unknown positions) leading to a probabilistic model.  Have a look and get your head around this concept.

If you look at a variety of chaos pictures, they are in fact ordered.  The result of the random input but through defined relationships results in order.  So I would argue the same is true for markets, or the weather (as ventured by disarray).  Hence I’d argue (in agreement with disarray) you can work out probabilities.

So, the relevant axiom from Mark Douglas is:  “There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variable that define and edge.”

This is based on Douglas' definition: “An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another”.

Isn’t that what trading and investing is all about at the heart?

disarray is spot on focussing on looking for, recognising, and taking advantage of high probability propositions.  Works for me.

So, there are no tradeable patterns in charts huh?  No wave structure, no market cycles, no discernable probabilities that constitute an edge using technical analysis? If you accept there are, then your argument falls.

Now, as for wavepicker and I (and Nick Radge, Yogi, kennas and kauri for example), you’re essentially saying all the analysis we have performed is a waste of time.  So, look at my (and wavepicker’s) market calls and tell me this was all blind luck, because that’s what you’re saying. You’re saying my calls were all random luck, and that I’m not really seeing an order to the markets.

How about fundamental analysis (Julia, ducati, michael selway, Nobby etc) you would also claim this is all bunk, and these people don’t have a clue and are deluded too huh?

And what’s funny is you can sit there and claim all this without having to prove a thing since your proposition needs over a decade to play out.  All I can say is good luck if you implement your pet theory.  I just hope the rest of us have debunked this perspective sufficiently to give them enough information to make up their own minds.

Regards


Magdoran


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

mark70920 said:


> I played day trader for a couple of weeks after sitting on a good stock for a year (VRE) on which I made a tidy profit , gave most of the profit back in the couple of weeks of impatient madness. If I stay patient I would have done well as VRE started to fly when I sold.
> 
> I lack both the time and knowledge to day trade , so I have gone back to the long investment game. Put my chips AAR this time , plan to hold for 2 to 5 years , I brought in at 5.8 and 7.2 so already in the black. I will not try to obsess to much about it and hopefully it will pay off in few years time




...and this is a representation of the many who don't spend the time to learn and understand what it is all about, let alone why one is doing it.


----------



## mrWoodo

At least I can throw away all the TA books/mags I'm collecting  

Buy=getRandomNumber()
Sell=false


----------



## wavepicker

Stop_the_clock said:


> What a load of tripe...the markets are chaotic and make very little sense.
> 
> How for 1 minute can you define the actions of millions of traders.
> 
> Some buy, some sell and some hold, for all types of reasons...to simply say the market is ordered is foolish IMO.
> 
> Lets say 5 holders of 1 stock, sell for a number of reasons...but all reasons had nothing to do with the stock, nor the fundamentals...they all sold for personal reasons.
> 
> stock seller number 1: Got into a car crash and needed funds to repair car
> 
> stock seller number 2: Lost their job and needed to pay bills
> 
> 
> stock seller number 3: Sold as they needed funds to buy a new car
> 
> stock seller number 4: Needed to fund back surgery
> 
> stock seller number 5: Died and shares were sold on their behalf.
> 
> How is all of the above ordered....its not...the world if full of chaos




STC, what you have described is not ordered you are correct.  But I am not talking about that sort order. 

I am talking  order in terms of pattern structures/ patterns of trend as represented by mass mood of traders/investors and thousands/hundreds of thousands of transactions. As such, SOMETIMES it can be seen that the market rises and falls in a PATTERNED way, regardless of the market.

If you think this is tripe, simply look at the history of some of my   posts/charts here in other threads. At times specific patterns can appear that can allow one to take high probability positions. Just one type of these patterns I have posted charts in Gold, Silver, Zinc, ZFX, XAO the list goes on. The resulting move was the same, every time. Now if the markets are chaotic/random at all times, how can this be so?? What is the probability that a move/wave structure of a certain type would follow such a pattern in all these instruments/stocks?? I would say very low.

Not only is there order in price motion, but also in terms of TIME, which is even more important. Things like Time Cycles, Seasonal Trends etc. These all imply an underlying order. As they say this is just a big merry go round with $$ rotating continuously from one asset class/ sector to another.


If I had to break it down, I would say that the following best describes it:-

-23% of market motion is oscillatory/cyclical and thus predictable.
-75% of market action is driven by very long term fundementals/or some unknown dynamic
-2 to3% of market action is white noise or random

Good Luck


----------



## >Apocalypto<

STC

Here is another example of direction less price action.

I have added are the trades i have made today (in that direction less market), yes i did follow the market direction and guess what i made a profit!

Fancy that!


----------



## Kauri

Hey STC,
             Are you stopping the clock or maybe just *winding it up*??


----------



## krisbarry

I reckon I am winding the clock up a little, its quite amazing how so many defend their theories...and what works for them.

Maybe they are just defending the squillions of dollars they shelled out for software, and seminars, and books, and charts and the zillions of hours mulling over it, and working for it to pay for it.

Who knows if it really all works...plenty find examples of how it works for them, I can find equally as many examples of how it works without all this crap as well.


----------



## legs

Stop_the_clock said:


> I reckon I am winding the clock up a little, its quite amazing how so many defend their theories...and what works for them.
> 
> Maybe they are just defending the squillions of dollars they shelled out for software, and seminars, and books, and charts and the zillions of hours mulling over it, and working for it to pay for it.
> 
> Who knows if it really all works...plenty find examples of how it works for them, I can find equally as many examples of how it works without all this crap as well.




I really fail to see how this is a healthy argument... Anything is possible as far as returns are concerned with stocks from +10,000% to -100%, and more. So how does a topics like this help???? I did myself think it was sensible at the start and nothing against STC, but i think enough has been argued....its getting silly???


----------



## krisbarry

legs said:


> I really fail to see how this is a healthy argument... Anything is possible as far as returns are concerned with stocks from +10,000% to -100%, and more. So how does a topics like this help???? I did myself think it was sensible at the start and nothing against STC, but i think enough has been argued....its getting silly???




How is it silly...I am raising a very valid point...are we over buying products and over-educating ourselves and over analising the market?

...do we buy a stock cause a chart says so?

...do we sell a stock cause the software says so?

...do we trust the makers of the software that all the code is correct?

...do we trust our instincts?

etc etc


----------



## motorway

Stop_the_clock said:


> How is it silly...I am raising a very valid point...are we over buying products and over-educating ourselves and over analising the market?
> 
> ...do we buy a stock cause a chart says so?
> 
> ...do we sell a stock cause the software says so?
> 
> ...do we trust the makers of the software that all the code is correct?
> 
> ...do we trust our instincts?
> 
> etc etc




I buy stocks that are going to go up
I have no other reason..
I sell stocks that are going to go down.
Again I have no other reason..

Are there any other reasons ? what other reason should I have ????

STC

The onus is on You to define random in the sense you are using it

Is there equal chance that BHP will open at $1,000,000 per share one day and just $0.001 the next and back again.. ?

That would be random.

Is there path dependence ?
Is it a random walk with walls ?

IF so can We identify those walls ?

maybe at critical junctures the mkt is anything but random ?
Can a stock or mkt go down if there is no one left to sell ?

Can it go up if there is no one left to buy ?

If there was a bag with 1000 red marbles 
and 1 blue marble
in what way is the chance of drawing a red or blue ball  random ? 
Where does probability come into it ?


motorway


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Stop_the_clock said:


> How is it silly...I am raising a very valid point...are we over buying products and over-educating ourselves and over analising the market?
> 
> ...do we buy a stock cause a chart says so?
> 
> ...do we sell a stock cause the software says so?
> 
> ...do we trust the makers of the software that all the code is correct?
> 
> ...do we trust our instincts?
> 
> etc etc




how can u have an idea or instinct with out education? any inctinct you have  is possibly drawn from subconscious data that relates to that feeling!

i still think your approach is a got lucky approach in our current market.

what you still have not said is how u knew to go long at that current time and not short. 

or did you flip a coin?


----------



## stoxclimber

If you buy a random stock, or a group of random stocks, then your expected return is that of the index. There's no need to run a Monte Carlo simulation 10,000 times. 

If you pick one stock at random, then your risk is higher than picking 5 stocks at random, than picking 10 stocks at random, than picking the entire index. This risk has both upside and downside..such as FMG vs BDG.

STC's strategy, of buy and hold, can only expect to return the index, assuming there is no analysis except for a random buy. If there is some form of analysis (presumably fundamental), then it's not a random buy, but it's still quite misleading to portray 50000% returns as the norm for this strategy. If you knew it was a 50000% return, why didn't you mortgage the house etc.?

A random strategy expects to return the index.
Anything differing from a random strategy, such as analysing charts or looking at stock fundamentals etc., depends on whether that analysis adds value or subtracts (considering opportunity cost, fees, time etc.), but these strategies must be zero sum around the index.

There's no need for emperical examples like FMG and PDN..these are axioms. While some strategies of investors out there must inevitably be inferior to a random approach, there's no need to paint them all with the same brush.


----------



## Julia

Trade_It said:


> i still think your approach is a got lucky approach in our current market.




Yep.  A better title for this thread would have been "Is it possible to just get lucky?"

It's clearly ridiculous to suggest that just buying any stock without either FA or TA is a valid approach.

STC, you are just doing what you do all the time and that is being a silly, immature stirrer.  Let's not give succour to the silliness, folks.


----------



## greggy

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with no attention needed.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc.  Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%).  But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with no effort required at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..




To say "..There is no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A to justify why you bought what you bought..." LOL!
Really STC you must be joking! Surely, T/A, F/A play their part in any trading strategy.  Last time I heard a similar comment was back in 1980, at the end of another mining boom.  The poor fellow later went broke.
DYOR


----------



## krisbarry

I like your avitar Julia, German Sherpards are my favorite dogs...grew up with them as a child.  They are very loyal


----------



## tech/a

> A better title for this thread would have been "Is it possible to just get lucky?"




Probably more apt.

It is I beleive more than possible.

In the Last 2 yrs there have been 138 stocks which have increased 1000% or more at sometime over the previous 5 yrs.

By far the MAJORITY are resource stocks.
Here is the list.

Security Name	Column A	Ticker Symbol	Folder	
AGINCOURT RSRCS	1.0000	AGC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AIM RESOURCES	1.0000	AIM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ALLEGIANCE MNNG	1.0000	AGM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ALLIANCE RSRCS	1.0000	AGS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ALLSTATE EXPLRTN	1.0000	ALX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AMADEUS ENERGY	1.0000	AMU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ANDEAN RSRCS LTD	1.0000	AND	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ANVIL MINING	1.0000	AVL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AQUILA RESOURCES	1.0000	AQA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ARAFURA RSRC LTD	1.0000	ARU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ARGOSY MNRLS INC	1.0000	AGY	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ARISTOCRAT LSR	1.0000	ALL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ARROW ENERGY NL	1.0000	AOE	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ASTRON LIMITED	1.0000	ATR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AUSRON LIMITED	1.0000	AUX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AUSTAR UNITED	1.0000	AUN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AUSTRALIAN ENRGY	1.0000	AEN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AUSTRALIAN MNNG	1.0000	AUM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AVATAR INDSTRS	1.0000	AVR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AVOCA RESOURCES	1.0000	AVO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AZTEC RESOURCES	1.0000	AZR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
BALLARAT GLDFLDS	1.0000	BGF	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\B0	
BERKELEY RSRCS	1.0000	BKY	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\B0	
BOLNISI GOLD NL	1.0000	BSG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\B0	
BOULDER STEEL	1.0000	BGD	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\B0	
CAC	1.0000	CAC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CALTEX AUSTRALIA	1.0000	CTX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CLIMAX MINING	1.0000	CMX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
COMPASS RSRCS	1.0000	CMR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
COPPERCO LIMITED	1.0000	CUODA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CP1 LIMITED	1.0000	CPK	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CROMWELL DEF SET	1.0000	CMWDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CROMWELL STAPLED	1.0000	CMW	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CTI LOGISTICS	1.0000	CLX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CUDECO LIMITED	1.0000	CDU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CUE ENERGY RSRC	1.0000	CUE	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CUSTOMERS LMTD	1.0000	CUS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CVC LIMITED	1.0000	CVC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
DESANE GROUP HLD	1.0000	DGH	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\D0	
DLMTRX INTRNT	1.0000	DMXDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\D0	
EASYCALL INTRNT	1.0000	EZY	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EMITCH LIMITED	1.0000	EMI	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
ENERGY RESOURCES	1.0000	ERA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
ENERGY WORLD C	1.0000	EWC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EPITAN LIMITED	1.0000	EPT	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
ESERVGLOBAL LMTD	1.0000	ESV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EUROPEAN GAS	1.0000	EPG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EXCALIBUR MINING	1.0000	EXM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
FALCON MNRLS LTD	1.0000	FCN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\F0	
FRTSC MTLS GRP	1.0000	FMG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\F0	
GLOBAL TLVSN	1.0000	GTV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GME RESOURCES L	1.0000	GME	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GOLDEN STATE RES	1.0000	GDNDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GPS ONLINE LMTD	1.0000	GPO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GRANGE RESOURCES	1.0000	GRR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GRNVL MNNG NL	1.0000	GRV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
HAVILAH RSRCS	1.0000	HAV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\H0	
HOMELEISURE LMTD	1.0000	HLD	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\H0	
IBA HEALTH LMTD	1.0000	IBA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
IMDEX LIMITED	1.0000	IMD	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
INDUSTREA LMTD	1.0000	IDL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
INTGRTD INV GR	1.0000	IIG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
JETSET TRVLWRLD	1.0000	JET	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\J0	
JINDALEE RSRCS	1.0000	JRL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\J0	
KINGS MINERALS N	1.0000	KMN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\K0	
LAVERTON GOLD NL	1.0000	LVG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
LEYSHON RSRCS	1.0000	LRL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
LINDIAN RSRCS	1.0000	LIN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
LION ENERGY LMTD	1.0000	LIODC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
MACQUARIE GD MG	1.0000	MGM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MAGNUM MNNG EXP	1.0000	MGU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MARION ENERGY	1.0000	MAE	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
METALS AUSTRALIA	1.0000	MLS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MIKOH CRPRTN	1.0000	MIK	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MINERAL DEPOSITS	1.0000	MDL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MINOTAUR RSC	1.0000	MNR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MITCHELL CMMNTC	1.0000	MCU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MONADELPHOUS GRP	1.0000	MND	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MONTO MNRLS LT	1.0000	MOODA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MORNING STAR GLD	1.0000	MCO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MOTO GOLDMINES	1.0000	MTO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
NEPTUNE MARINE	1.0000	NMS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
NEXUS ENERGY L	1.0000	NXS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
NIAGARA MINING	1.0000	NIA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
NIDO PETROLEUM	1.0000	NDO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
NORTHERN GOLD NL	1.0000	NNG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
PACIFIC ENERGY	1.0000	PEA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PALADIN RSRCS	1.0000	PDN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PAN AUSTRALIAN R	1.0000	PNA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PELSART RSRCS	1.0000	PRN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PLATINUM ASTRL	1.0000	PLA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PRECIOUS METALS	1.0000	PMA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
QLD TRUSTEES IN	1.0000	QTI	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Q0	
QUEENSLAND GAS	1.0000	QGC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Q0	
QUIKTRAK NTWRKS	1.0000	QTK	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Q0	
RAMELIUS RSRCS	1.0000	RMS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
RAND MINING NL	1.0000	RND	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
RAPTIS GROUP L	1.0000	RPG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
RCR TOMLINSON	1.0000	RCR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
REALESTATE COM A	1.0000	REA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
RECKON LIMITED	1.0000	RKNDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
REINSURANCE AUST	1.0000	RAC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
RENISON CNSLDTD	1.0000	RSN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
RUSINA MINING NL	1.0000	RML	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
SALINAS ENERGY	1.0000	SAE	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SEE LOK.LOK	1.0000	LOKDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
SEE RIV.RIV	1.0000	WAV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
SEE RRL.RRL	1.0000	JWM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\J0	
SEE TWO.TWO	1.0000	TWODA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
SEE WAV.WAV	1.0000	WAVDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
SENETAS CRPRTN	1.0000	SEN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SILEX SYSTEMS	1.0000	SLX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SINO STRTGC INT	1.0000	SSI	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SMC GOLD LIMITED	1.0000	SMO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SPHERE INVSTMNTS	1.0000	SPH	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
ST BARBARA LMTD	1.0000	SBM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
STRIKE RESOURCES	1.0000	SRK	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUMMIT RESOURCES	1.0000	SMM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUNBASE CHINA L	1.0000	SUB	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUNDANCE RSRCS	1.0000	SDL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUNRAYSIA TLVSN	1.0000	STV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
TALENT2 INTRNTN	1.0000	TWO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
TAMAYA RESOURCES	1.0000	TMR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
TERRAMIN ASTRL	1.0000	TZN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
TIGER RESOURCES	1.0000	TGS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
UNITED OVRSS AST	1.0000	UOS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\U0	
VICTORIA PTRLM	1.0000	VPEDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
VISION SYSTEMS	1.0000	VSL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
VOXSON LIMITED	1.0000	VXS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
VPH LIMITED	1.0000	VPH	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
WEBJET LIMITED	1.0000	WEB	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WEBJET LIMITED	1.0000	WEBDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WENTWORTH MUTUAL	1.0000	WWMDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WESTERN AREAS NL	1.0000	WSA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WESTGOLD RSRCS	1.0000	WGR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WHK GROUP LMTD	1.0000	WHG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WRLYPRSNS LTD	1.0000	WOR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
ZINIFEX LIMITED	1.0000	ZFX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Z0	


How many I wonder using Fundamental/Technical or Both got one or more of these for the full 1000% plus?


----------



## Magdoran

tech/a said:


> ...
> EPITAN LIMITED	1.0000	EPT	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0



Yup, a great BUY in November 2004 for a random pick!


----------



## dj_420

tech/a said:


> How many I wonder using Fundamental/Technical or Both got one or more of these for the full 1000% plus?




well im hoping that my portfolio will return like some of those in next few years, hopefully we can add a few to that list soon!


----------



## Magdoran

dj_420 said:


> well im hoping that my portfolio will return like some of those in next few years, hopefully we can add a few to that list soon!



Yup, would love to see that list now too, complete with entry and exit prices and times too please.


----------



## krisbarry

tech/a said:


> Probably more apt.
> 
> It is I beleive more than possible.
> 
> In the Last 2 yrs there have been 138 stocks which have increased 1000% or more at sometime over the previous 5 yrs.
> 
> How many I wonder using Fundamental/Technical or Both got one or more of these for the full 1000% plus?





Brilliantly put Tech/a....there we go...138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.

Imagine the amount of holders we have on each of those 138 stocks, simply buying and holding and sitting on their hands.  Possibly hundreds of thousands of people making squillions of dollars and most of them have never ever had to buy a piece of software, attend a seminar, buy a book, look at a chart, study a theory etc etc.

You see their might be millions and millions of people worldwide doing this same thing each and everyday...the buy and hold technique.  I call it the set and forget technique.

is it profitable.....you bet it is!


----------



## dj_420

Stop_the_clock said:


> Brilliantly put Tech/a....there we go...138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.
> 
> Imagine the amount of holders we have on each of those 138 stocks, simply buying and holding and sitting on their hands.  Possibly hundreds of thousands of people making squillions of dollars and most of them have never ever had to buy a piece of software, attend a seminar, buy a book, look at a chart, study a theory etc etc.
> 
> You see their might be millions and millions of people worldwide doing this same thing each and everyday...the buy and hold technique.  I call it the set and forget technique.
> 
> is it profitable.....you bet it is!




yes BUT to have been on those stocks they would have performed some sort of ANALYSIS not just thrown a dart at a dart board. FFS!

be it TA or FA, no one is just going to throw money away.

maybe you are still not thinking straight from selling FMG at 50 cents! lol


----------



## Magdoran

Stop_the_clock said:


> Brilliantly put Tech/a....there we go...138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.
> 
> Imagine the amount of holders we have on each of those 138 stocks, simply buying and holding and sitting on their hands.  Possibly hundreds of thousands of people making squillions of dollars and most of them have never ever had to buy a piece of software, attend a seminar, buy a book, look at a chart, study a theory etc etc.
> 
> You see their might be millions and millions of people worldwide doing this same thing each and everyday...the buy and hold technique.  I call it the set and forget technique.
> 
> is it profitable.....you bet it is!



I’m a convert STC!  


Please post your list of future 1000%ers (optionable versions would be really great too or at least CFD/future/margin/warrant capable so we can make that 100,000% returns in stead, with NO EFFORT!  I love it), compete with entry price and time, and exit price and time thanks.  

No risk, guaranteed 100,000% returns – “roll up roll up!!!”  Let’s all become instant gazillionaires using the patented STC “wishing well”!!!

Everyone will become fabulously rich instantly. Wow, why ever did we spend years studying the market when all you have to do is wish on STC’s star, and add Daffy’s magic.  Voila!  Hey presto!  And become an instant Gates/Murdoch with absolutely no effort!!!

Just fire up STC’s crystal ball, say the magic words “I feel lucky, MAKE MY DAY!!!”

Where do I sign?  (The “secret” will only cost us mere mortals a “modest” investment, won’t it?).


Yup, and I believe in Santa Claus and the Easter bunny too, not to mention UFO’s, the Earth is flat, night is day, day is night, ignorance is strength, and that Holt boarded a Russian Sub.


*PURE FANTASY*. – Anyone seen this kind of thing before?  Like those “seminars” where everyone can make an easy fortune – seems too good to be true – and often is.


----------



## motorway

Stop_the_clock said:


> Brilliantly put Tech/a....there we go...138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.
> 
> Imagine the amount of holders we have on each of those 138 stocks, simply buying and holding and sitting on their hands.  Possibly hundreds of thousands of people making squillions of dollars and most of them have never ever had to buy a piece of software, attend a seminar, buy a book, look at a chart, study a theory etc etc.
> 
> You see their might be millions and millions of people worldwide doing this same thing each and everyday...the buy and hold technique.  I call it the set and forget technique.
> 
> is it profitable.....you bet it is!




Granted those stocks were great buys
If you did buy them
But hold?? How long 

I agree many do not let profits accrue to maximum extent
because of exits that are too narrowly defined .


So yes Buy ,,,, But what and when ?

and hold ,,, But how long ??

All resolves back to some sort of analysis...

motorway


----------



## tech/a

Well if we take the same period 5 yrs and those that have made 1000% + within the last Month that list shrinks to 67 still a sizable number.
If we then look at that number relative to purely Resouce stocks then the odds become sizable.I dont know how many resourse stocks there are but say
600 that 10%

Security Name	Column A	Ticker Symbol	Folder	
ALLEGIANCE MNNG	1.0000	AGM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ALLIANCE RSRCS	1.0000	AGS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ANVIL MINING	1.0000	AVL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AQUILA RESOURCES	1.0000	AQA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ARAFURA RSRC LTD	1.0000	ARU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
ARROW ENERGY NL	1.0000	AOE	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AUSRON LIMITED	1.0000	AUX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AUSTRALIAN MNNG	1.0000	AUM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
AVOCA RESOURCES	1.0000	AVO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\A0	
BOLNISI GOLD NL	1.0000	BSG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\B0	
COMPASS RSRCS	1.0000	CMR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
COPPERCO LIMITED	1.0000	CUODA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CP1 LIMITED	1.0000	CPK	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CROMWELL DEF SET	1.0000	CMWDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CROMWELL STAPLED	1.0000	CMW	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CTI LOGISTICS	1.0000	CLX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
CUDECO LIMITED	1.0000	CDU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\C0	
DLMTRX INTRNT	1.0000	DMXDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\D0	
EASYCALL INTRNT	1.0000	EZY	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EMITCH LIMITED	1.0000	EMI	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
ENERGY WORLD C	1.0000	EWC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EUROPEAN GAS	1.0000	EPG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
EXCALIBUR MINING	1.0000	EXM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\E0	
FRTSC MTLS GRP	1.0000	FMG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\F0	
GLOBAL TLVSN	1.0000	GTV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GME RESOURCES L	1.0000	GME	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GOLDEN STATE RES	1.0000	GDNDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
GPS ONLINE LMTD	1.0000	GPO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\G0	
IMDEX LIMITED	1.0000	IMD	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
INDUSTREA LMTD	1.0000	IDL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
INTGRTD INV GR	1.0000	IIG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\I0	
JINDALEE RSRCS	1.0000	JRL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\J0	
KINGS MINERALS N	1.0000	KMN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\K0	
LINDIAN RSRCS	1.0000	LIN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
LION ENERGY LMTD	1.0000	LIODC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
MARION ENERGY	1.0000	MAE	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MITCHELL CMMNTC	1.0000	MCU	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
MOTO GOLDMINES	1.0000	MTO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\M0	
NEPTUNE MARINE	1.0000	NMS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
NIAGARA MINING	1.0000	NIA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
NIDO PETROLEUM	1.0000	NDO	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\N0	
PACIFIC ENERGY	1.0000	PEA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PALADIN RSRCS	1.0000	PDN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PLATINUM ASTRL	1.0000	PLA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
PRECIOUS METALS	1.0000	PMA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\P0	
QLD TRUSTEES IN	1.0000	QTI	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Q0	
QUEENSLAND GAS	1.0000	QGC	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Q0	
RAMELIUS RSRCS	1.0000	RMS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\R0	
SEE LOK.LOK	1.0000	LOKDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\L0	
SEE TWO.TWO	1.0000	TWODA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
SILEX SYSTEMS	1.0000	SLX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SPHERE INVSTMNTS	1.0000	SPH	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
ST BARBARA LMTD	1.0000	SBM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
STRIKE RESOURCES	1.0000	SRK	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUMMIT RESOURCES	1.0000	SMM	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUNDANCE RSRCS	1.0000	SDL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
SUNRAYSIA TLVSN	1.0000	STV	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\S0	
TERRAMIN ASTRL	1.0000	TZN	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\T0	
UNITED OVRSS AST	1.0000	UOS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\U0	
VICTORIA PTRLM	1.0000	VPEDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
VISION SYSTEMS	1.0000	VSL	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
VOXSON LIMITED	1.0000	VXS	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\V0	
WENTWORTH MUTUAL	1.0000	WWMDA	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WESTGOLD RSRCS	1.0000	WGR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WHK GROUP LMTD	1.0000	WHG	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
WRLYPRSNS LTD	1.0000	WOR	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\W0	
ZINIFEX LIMITED	1.0000	ZFX	C:\My Databases\MetaStock\ASX\Z0

*Moggie* while I agree that maximising return will require some input it is very possible a long term systems trader could get a share of these. Its also "Possible" that a random entry of a resource stock could enjoy the same.

Like wise Id like to see not only the Random stock selector but also the analyst---regardless of which type of analysis---pick one or more future 1000% winners.

While not impossible I think its more a case of try and fail often to get on one or more of these.Even harder to ride it out or enter/exit and or re enter to participate in a lengthy run---even catch an outlier move--or 2.


----------



## wavepicker

Magdoran said:


> I’m a convert STC!
> 
> 
> Please post your list of future 1000%ers (optionable versions would be really great too or at least CFD/future/margin/warrant capable so we can make that 100,000% returns in stead, with NO EFFORT!  I love it), compete with entry price and time, and exit price and time thanks.
> 
> No risk, guaranteed 100,000% returns – “roll up roll up!!!”  Let’s all become instant gazillionaires using the patented STC “wishing well”!!!
> 
> Everyone will become fabulously rich instantly. Wow, why ever did we spend years studying the market when all you have to do is wish on STC’s star, and add Daffy’s magic.  Voila!  Hey presto!  And become an instant Gates/Murdoch with absolutely no effort!!!
> 
> Just fire up STC’s crystal ball, say the magic words “I feel lucky, MAKE MY DAY!!!”
> 
> Where do I sign?  (The “secret” will only cost us mere mortals a “modest” investment, won’t it?).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yup, and I believe in Santa Claus and the Easter bunny too, not to mention UFO’s, the Earth is flat, night is day, day is night, ignorance is strength, and that Holt boarded a Russian Sub.
> 
> 
> *PURE FANTASY*. – Anyone seen this kind of thing before?  Like those “seminars” where everyone can make an easy fortune – seems too good to be true – and often is.




Well put Mag,

you forgot one thing, they will still be holding after the next 1929 or 1987 comes, so they can get rich,all over again!!!


----------



## Sean K

Stop_the_clock said:


> Brilliantly put Tech/a....there we go...138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.



LMAO.  This is getting loopier and loopier. Can the thread please be moved to the ASF Joke Thread. 

What if the dart throwing monkey had chosen the ones that went down 100%?


----------



## Magdoran

tech/a said:


> Well if we take the same period 5 yrs and those that have made 1000% + within the last Month that list shrinks to 67 still a sizable number.
> If we then look at that number relative to purely Resouce stocks then the odds become sizable.I dont know how many resourse stocks there are but say
> 600 that 10%
> 
> ...
> 
> *Moggie* while I agree that maximising return will require some input it is very possible a long term systems trader could get a share of these. Its also "Possible" that a random entry of a resource stock could enjoy the same.
> 
> Like wise Id like to see not only the Random stock selector but also the analyst---regardless of which type of analysis---pick one or more future 1000% winners.
> 
> While not impossible I think its more a case of try and fail often to get on one or more of these.Even harder to ride it out or enter/exit and or re enter to participate in a lengthy run---even catch an outlier move--or 2.



Now that is an entirely different proposition from the one ventured, and much more plausible from a positive expectancy stand point, as you well know.

I just think a modicum of responsibility is required here since there are impressionable people out there that are prone to be suckered by this sort of thinking.  

If you’ve been around long enough, you see rip off merchants play on this kind of naivety.  That prospect sickens me to my stomach.  I have a pet objection about this kind of thing.  I’ve seen the effects of what this can do to people who get fleeced like the Westpoint scam.  Not impressed, and not just a little feeling of outrage on their behalf.


----------



## Kauri

Stop_the_clock said:


> Its quite simple and requires very little time at all.
> 
> There is *no need to spend hours drooling over charts, using all kinds of T/A, and F/A *to justify why you bought what you bought.
> 
> It is as simple as a buy and hold approach, with *no attention needed*.
> 
> Here is the story, a true story at that of how it could have been achieved.
> 
> I bought FMG back in Aug 2004 for 64 cents, the trade took me about 10 minutes to complete, after reading the announcement etc. Of course I sold out 2 weeks later after it had hit my stop-loss (10%). But thats not the point!
> 
> Now look at the price of FMG mid $30's and even reached $40 over the past 2weeks
> 
> You see, you can make extreme amounts of money with *no effort required* at all.
> 
> I could have executed that trade and *never turned on the computer again for 2.5 years*, then come back to see a massive account balance.
> 
> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.
> 
> 
> 
> ..




   As the original premise was to buy without any analysis and not to turn the computer on for 2 1/2 years maybe, in the spirit of the original post, one should also look and see how many shares either went under or lost more than xx% over the same period.


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:


> LMAO.  This is getting loopier and loopier. Can the thread please be moved to the ASF Joke Thread.
> 
> What if the dart throwing monkey had chosen the ones that went down 100%?



I second the motion.  Can someone please feed the monkey a banana?


----------



## Magdoran

Actually this thread should be renamed “how to burn $550,000+ into under $9500”


----------



## nizar

Stop_the_clock said:


> Brilliantly put Tech/a....there we go...138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.
> 
> Imagine the amount of holders we have on each of those 138 stocks, simply buying and holding and sitting on their hands.  Possibly hundreds of thousands of people making squillions of dollars and most of them have never ever had to buy a piece of software, attend a seminar, buy a book, look at a chart, study a theory etc etc.
> 
> You see their might be millions and millions of people worldwide doing this same thing each and everyday...the buy and hold technique.  I call it the set and forget technique.
> 
> is it profitable.....you bet it is!





Yeh but out of how many ASX stocks??

Wave, Mag, Motorway, and myself in my first few posts of this thread, are trying to teach you something.

About time to do your part -- the learning part.


----------



## disarray

Stop_the_clock said:


> 138 examples of stocks to buy and hold and sit on your hands...with no effort required.




138 stocks out of 2044 ASX listed stocks isn't a very good hit rate. i'm not a gambler but 15 - 1 doesn't seem like very good odds to me.


----------



## tech/a

On the other side of the equation.

191 stocks are less than 10% of their value 5 yrs ago as of the last 21 days.


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:


> On the other side of the equation.
> 
> 191 stocks are less than 10% of their value 5 yrs ago as of the last 21 days.




So there you go.
191 dogs.
138 winners.

More chance of picking a dog.


----------



## tech/a

Actually going back to something that I read from a post from someone here it was suggested you actually try to lose everything.

As stupid as it sounds.

*STC
Pick 19 Resource stocks (anyway you wish,I'll call that random).
Post them here.
$500 on each being the minimum purchase ($9,500)*

Let them do what they do and lets see just how hard it is to lose EVERYTHING.
On the flip side---if there is any credence to your Hypothesis.

I think there may well be a suprise over time.

Dont get me wrong I'm not saying its the best option far from it,but I do think there is a fair chance it will outperform most traders! Just a hunch.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tech/a said:


> Dont get me wrong I'm not saying its the best option far from it,but I do think there is a fair chance it will outperform most traders! Just a hunch.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think your right Tech
Click to expand...


----------



## Broadside

henry vanderhave said:


> my brother in law made over $400,000. he bought 5000 csl shares when they listed at $2.50 per share.cost $12500 to get in.Today they are approximately $90.00 dollars per share,value now $450,000.His policy is,never sell anything.he buys quality only and holds to this day.hes annoyed they dont pay fully franked dividends.he buys for the divies.he knew they were good coming from the government.He also did same with commonwealth bank and national bank.still holding.amongst others.never sell is his way buy quality.




It isn't always obvious what represents quality ahead of time.  Did anyone in their wildest dreams imagine CSL would perform as it did?  The government also offloaded TLS and its performance has been mixed, despite blue chip credentials.  If you can buy and hold quality, that's fine, recognising it is the hard part.  I don't understand the point of kris barry / stop_the_clock's post, sure we could make 5000% returns with hindsight.  I think his point is just to bait those who work hard to select their stocks, it takes some work and discipline and a lot of luck to get on that stellar stock before the rise.  Well, that's how I see it.


----------



## tech/a

> I think his point is just to bait those who work hard to select their stocks, it takes some *work and discipline *and *a lot of luck *to get on that stellar stock before the rise. Well, that's how I see it.




Well is it work and discipline OR a lot of luck.

*Moggie.*
Care to put up 19 of your educated resource stock selections as well?

*Of course trade them however you like to gain maximum return.*


----------



## Broadside

tech/a said:


> I think his point is just to bait those who work hard to select their stocks, it takes some *work and discipline *and *a lot of luck *to get on that stellar stock before the rise. Well, that's how I see it.
> 
> Well is it work and discipline OR a lot of luck.




To get another FMG return? - not throwing a dart at a board and relying on pure luck as stop_the_clock might have us do - in addition to the hard work, I think some luck is required...but as Arnold Palmer said, the more I practice, the luckier I get.


----------



## dj_420

tech/a said:


> I think his point is just to bait those who work hard to select their stocks, it takes some *work and discipline *and *a lot of luck *to get on that stellar stock before the rise. Well, that's how I see it.
> 
> Well is it work and discipline OR a lot of luck.
> 
> *Moggie.*
> Care to put up 19 of your educated resource stock selections as well?




hey i think we should have a yearly comp, we select 20 stocks each and then see how we go, what do you think tech/a??


----------



## tech/a

10/20 whatever.
We already have a short term comp/1 mth.
Why not a yearly which could start every 3/6 mths.

Only problem is who would record it---a lot of work and joe gets bugger all for his efforts now!


----------



## wavepicker

tech/a said:


> 10/20 whatever.
> We already have a short term comp/1 mth.
> Why not a yearly which could start every 3/6 mths.
> 
> Only problem is who would record it---a lot of work and joe gets bugger all for his efforts now!





Various CFD/FX providers run trading competions (2 months duration) during the year. You could take part in those. Why only stocks or long positions for that matter?

Better still, with real $$$, as competitons don't have the added aspect of emotion involved!


----------



## Magdoran

tech/a said:


> Well is it work and discipline OR a lot of luck.
> 
> *Moggie.*
> Care to put up 19 of your educated resource stock selections as well?
> 
> *Of course trade them however you like to gain maximum return.*



It’s a matter of style.  My approach as you know is radically different to the buy and hold style:

My specialty/focus is on commodities and indexes since these are harder to manipulate, and I trade derivatives (haven’t bought or sold a stock in years) in these markets and equities.  In the ASX equity market I will only trade the optionable stocks with sufficient liquidity or appropriate strikes (occasionally trade flex options but only when the chart is compelling), or less often those with warrants or futures.  I just don’t trade the underlying.

Time frame is also a factor, since I deem it better to be out of the market sometimes when dealing with depreciating asserts such as bought options, warrants and futures, and in times I see little opportunity to profit, or the risk to reward parameters are not sufficient to justify a trade.

Hence sometimes swing trades can achieve that mystical 1000%, sometimes in a matter of days, hence precision entry and exits are key to swing styles of trading where you aim to precisely match the time value of the instrument of choice to the movement of the underlying looking to capture the “sweet spot” of the derivative to minimise risk and maximise reward.

So, the prospect of me picking 19 small caps is not really my specialty, although of course I can read a chart, but the prospect of trudging through 500+ odd charts in detail (which is what I’d have to do since using scanners is the polar opposite approach to a chartist who uses pattern of trend, time cycles and Elliott Wave as their core form of analysis) is quite an ask.  If I had to, I would analyse each chart in detail and I have a rigorous analysis regimen I’d apply to each and every chart if I was compelled to trade.

Although of course SpinDr (not widely known on ASF, but a trading legend – also know to Daffy from the past – Daffy attended some of his lectures I believe), who is the consummate technician at small caps, especially resource stocks, would be the better choice as his record at trading these is significant (I’ve never traded a small cap resource stock).  He is a time cycle chartist of considerable skill and I’ve seen his work with this end of the ASX spectrum – he’d be a better choice but he’d also try to pick stocks which are covered by CFDs to increase the leverage.

If I was to trade, I’d suggest an amount of capital, with no restriction on markets or instruments – include all indexes worldwide, all stocks worldwide, all commodities world wide, all Forex, all derivatives of any kind including structured derivatives of any kind, all warrants, bonds, notes (including convertible notes and any combination of derivatives), any kind of margin, futures of any kind, options on futures, options, warrants, CFDs.  This includes the ability to go short as well as long any insturment.

Also the ability to enter or exit at any time if permitted by the relevant market to do so during the relevant trading hours.  In addition the ability to incorporate contingent orders of whatever configuration available to the chosen market and instrument.  That’s what I’d require to truly reflect my trading style.  That’s what I’m geared for.  Particularly the ability to enter complex option positions such as ratio back spreads in order to buy and sell positions around a core position as the underlying trades.  

The question is how do we set it up with an arbitrator to follow all these markets and instruments? Particularly if I may be entering and exiting in several different markets in a variety of different instruments and time frames?


Maybe it’d be easier to trade just one index or commodity, and allow the use of whatever instruments are available over it?



Regards


Magdoran


----------



## nizar

wavepicker said:


> Better still, with real $$$, as competitons don't have the added aspect of emotion involved!




Yeh.. Kinda like that comp where Larry Williams dominated.
Use your own money, but traded live.

Could be interesting.


----------



## tech/a

*Moggie*



> So, the prospect of me picking 19 small caps is not really my specialty, although of course I can read a chart, but the prospect of trudging through 500+ odd charts in detail (which is what I’d have to do since using scanners is the polar opposite approach to a chartist who uses pattern of trend, time cycles and Elliott Wave as their core form of analysis) is quite an ask. If I had to, I would analyse each chart in detail and I have a rigorous analysis regimen I’d apply to each and every chart if I was compelled to trade.




Yes I do see your point.
But also see STC's.
Interested then in picking a couple of your best (From the resource sector). and showing practical application.
Still like to see STC pick 19 and run those to see if there is any credence in what he suggests.


----------



## krisbarry

Here is another example:

Person 1 buys an easy pick lotto ticket (random number generator) kicks back and waits for the lotto numbers to be drawn.

Person 2 picks numbers using all kinds of theories (T/A and F/A) spends hours mulling over the lotto website and finding out the most popular numbers, the numbers drawn; most and least.  Runs the numbers through a few spreadsheets, charts them, chats with a few lotto officials. etc etc

*The truth is that both person 1 and 2 have equal chance of winning, no matter how much or little time is spent choosing the numbers in the first place.*


----------



## wayneL

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here is another example:
> 
> Person 1 buys an easy pick lotto ticket (random number generator) kicks back and waits for the lotto numbers to be drawn.
> 
> Person 2 picks numbers using all kinds of theories (T/A and F/A) spends hours mulling over the lotto website and finding out the most popular numbers, the numbers drawn; most and least.  Runs the numbers through a few spreadsheets, charts them, chats with a few lotto officials. etc etc
> 
> *The truth is that both person 1 and 2 have equal chance of winning, no matter how much or little time is spent choosing the numbers in the first place.*


----------



## Broadside

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here is another example:
> 
> Person 1 buys an easy pick lotto ticket (random number generator) kicks back and waits for the lotto numbers to be drawn.
> 
> Person 2 picks numbers using all kinds of theories (T/A and F/A) spends hours mulling over the lotto website and finding out the most popular numbers, the numbers drawn; most and least.  Runs the numbers through a few spreadsheets, charts them, chats with a few lotto officials. etc etc
> 
> *The truth is that both person 1 and 2 have equal chance of winning, no matter how much or little time is spent choosing the numbers in the first place.*




If you really believe picking stocks is totally random (I think you're just being a stirrer) I suggest you buy a fund which replicates the index.  Or buy a lotto ticket.

I always wondered how you chose LVL, it was a random stock generator.  Say no more.


----------



## tech/a

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here is another example:
> 
> Person 1 buys an easy pick lotto ticket (random number generator) kicks back and waits for the lotto numbers to be drawn.
> 
> Person 2 picks numbers using all kinds of theories (T/A and F/A) spends hours mulling over the lotto website and finding out the most popular numbers, the numbers drawn; most and least.  Runs the numbers through a few spreadsheets, charts them, chats with a few lotto officials. etc etc
> 
> *The truth is that both person 1 and 2 have equal chance of winning, no matter how much or little time is spent choosing the numbers in the first place.*




Sorry STC not remotely similar.


----------



## wavepicker

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here is another example:
> 
> Person 1 buys an easy pick lotto ticket (random number generator) kicks back and waits for the lotto numbers to be drawn.
> 
> Person 2 picks numbers using all kinds of theories (T/A and F/A) spends hours mulling over the lotto website and finding out the most popular numbers, the numbers drawn; most and least.  Runs the numbers through a few spreadsheets, charts them, chats with a few lotto officials. etc etc
> 
> *The truth is that both person 1 and 2 have equal chance of winning, no matter how much or little time is spent choosing the numbers in the first place.*




Your argument is completely flawed as you are comparing the market to the lottery.

Why have so many people been involved in this market mania for the last 5 years. More now than 2002??  Simple, because the market has been going up. While the trend is strongly up, more stocks will be advancing compared to declining, as such the probabilities of picking an advancing stock are increased. Think about it, it’s not rocket science. How far they move up/down in a long term period is much harder to determine by fundamental or charting methods.

Your argument is that I don’t what the market has been doing and have no idea what it’s going to do. It doesn’t matter since I am going to buy and hold irrespective.  Well if you think you have a CONSISTANT winning edge doing this STC, then do it.

Here is some food for thought though,  7 years ago, I bought a stock (SEN) for 25c, it then moved to $2.38 in matter of weeks. At the same time a friend bought the same stock. The DOT.com crash came and I was eventually lucky enough to liquidate at $1.50 on a retest. All the tell tail signs that this stock had topped but a few days before the crash were there, but I did not know how to read chart patterns back then, I WISH I DID( By the way, the same pattern was made by RIO a few weeks ago, not saying that RIO is gonna crash though, but will not see highs for quite a while)

 My friend said he would hold as he bought for the long term, if you buy for the long term you can’t go wrong. He held all the way down to 4c.  I bought the stock again at 25c and then exited at 80c. He held and is still holding to this day when the price is 14c. That is 7.5 years now!!

Good Luck


----------



## happytrader

Stop_the_clock said:


> Buying any of the 4 major banks some 5 years ago would have resulted in the same approach....massive profits, with no effort required.
> 
> No charting, No T/A, no F/A
> 
> just throwing out 4 more examples of how even a monkey can make money




Just afew rounded figures of the 4 big banks from January 1997 to Jan 2007

ANZ $8.00 to $28.00
CBA $12.00 to $50.00
NAB $14.00 to $40.00
WBC $8.00 to $24.00

At least 300% gains in the last 10 years, bi annual dividends, and shareholder discounts. All in all not a bad risk especially if you buy anywhere below the years open.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## stoxclimber

Actually, there are people who perform fundamental analysis on the lottery, and do quite well for themselves; search for lottery syndicates on Google. Also,although it doesn't overcome the vig, there are certain #s which are better to play in the Lotto than others because other people won't choose them (like above 31)..isn't that fundamental analysis?

Any other examples you've got?


----------



## dj_420

tech/a said:


> 10/20 whatever.
> We already have a short term comp/1 mth.
> Why not a yearly which could start every 3/6 mths.
> 
> Only problem is who would record it---a lot of work and joe gets bugger all for his efforts now!




if we were to do it tech, we could get everyone to chart their own stocks, 10 stocks and everyone can chart it themselves and then post at a particular time on one thread?

what do people think? is there any stock program we can use to record the data? could do it on comsec using paper trades and then just copy and paste it into here


----------



## Magdoran

I do think that the underlying philosophical polemics about analysis vs random walk theory needed to be addressed, and to an extent they have been, that’s why I bothered to have an input here.  

Also, I do have concerns that some junior players may be swayed by some of the notions here, hence it was good to see ASF posters responding to this thinking even if it was put up as some kind of a joke.  The people who were bankrupted by the Westpoint scam for instance aren’t laughing, some actually committed suicide, so keep that in mind and let that sit on the consciences of those venturing sophistry that may hurt others.



tech/a said:


> *Moggie*
> 
> Yes I do see your point.
> But also see STC's.
> Interested then in picking a couple of your best (From the resource sector). and showing practical application.
> Still like to see STC pick 19 and run those to see if there is any credence in what he suggests.




I'm surprised that you’ve supported this line of thinking so far given your past pronouncements about protecting the public from scams, and your promotion of conducting trading/investing in a business like manner.

Firstly, I’m confident that the overwhelming majority of fundamental and technical players view STC’s perspective ventured on this thread as flawed and think that STC is either not serious about this, or he is on the wrong track.

Secondly, it beats me why you have decided to align yourself with the antithesis of your approach, when you’re the self proclaimed king of developing robust mechanical systems (such as techtrader) and the self appointed advocate for conducting market activities in a business like manner based on positive expectancy models.

If you really feel compelled to test this theory (which I personally think is a waste of time and essentially reinventing a very old wheel) I would have thought that you’d have applied more rigour to STC’s pet theory if you were serious about evaluating it, and address a range of different markets to thoroughly build up sufficient evidence in the same vane as you did with techtrader.

If you’re going to focus on a specific portion of the market like small cap resource stocks, then surely the best choice to test this theory is to get people who are specialists in this area.  If you’re going to test long term buy and hold approaches, why not get the fundamental players who fully research mining stocks for instance – there are many people who do this on this site.  

Perhaps it would be nice to get SpinDr in if you want a good technical player that trades this limited quadrant of the market since he trades resources small caps, and knows that market.  Interestingly using leveraged bearish positions may be quite lucrative in the near future, so the time frame, both the duration of the start to finish period, plus the actual time frame in the market (results will be very different when fast bearish moves are happening for instance, as opposed to struggling to sideways trends) will have an affect on the outcome.

But this approach in itself defeats the purpose since it is limiting itself to a unique market rather than looking at all markets to really test the validity.  You really need to do this in a range of market conditions, instruments, time frames and market conditions over years methodically.

The problem with objectively evaluating different styles is it’s almost impossible to get a definitive result because market conditions and outcomes are so variable.  I don’t think the traditional forms of back testing are worth while and have stated this for a long time.  I think each moment in the market is unique.  

The variety of results with this style of thinking and testing will necessarily shift depending on a range of parameters such as where you set the start and stop date for a test, what kind of trend the market is in at the time for the test, and how long the test runs for.  This will significantly affect the results especially if you’re trying to compare radically different approaches.

I believe this kind of thinking is as fruitless as the silly debates over which is better - technical vs fundamental styles.  My view is each has application, and that some people have a gift for one or another style.  I think they are equally valid, and take my hat off to consummate fundamental players.  In fact I believe the best teams are gifted technical and fundamental players working together.  STC’s proposition though doesn’t rate in my view, it is terminally flawed, unless of course you work out that it’s better to become the lotto provider, then you’re on to something.

Then there is also the issue of instruments and the issue of the ability to profit from bearish moves, hedging, and leverage issues.  How do you meaningfully resolve all of this?


----------



## stoxclimber

This theory doesn't need testing. It's expected return is self evident. Just compare your own expected return with the expected return.


----------



## Magdoran

stoxclimber said:


> This theory doesn't need testing. It's expected return is self evident. Just compare your own expected return with the expected return.



Agree fully - nice to see others come to the obvious conclusion.  However, someone needed to spell it out clearly to put this tangent to bed as it richly deserves.  Time to move on!


----------



## Kauri

I think people are treating this thread with far more seriousness than it deserves, and also are taking it off in directions which suit them.
 The original premise put forward was to .. *without any analysis*.....*randomly* select *one*  low priced *stock* in the mining sector and place $9500 on it, not look at it for 2 1/2 years, and see what the end result was.
  In the spirit of this challenge I have scribbled down the codes of sub $1 mining stocks on a sheet of paper, and to make it truly independant have taken it next door to my neighbours Budgie cage. They have unerringly and without hesitation dropped their unique indicator on *BTV* . 
  So put me down for $9500 of BTV at yesterdays close of $0.135c..

 PS... *BTV*... that seems co-incidentally to ring a few bells for some reason...
   Yours in all sincerity
             Kauri...


----------



## nizar

dj_420 said:


> if we were to do it tech, we could get everyone to chart their own stocks, 10 stocks and everyone can chart it themselves and then post at a particular time on one thread?
> 
> what do people think? is there any stock program we can use to record the data? could do it on comsec using paper trades and then just copy and paste it into here




Yeh Im down.
If you could analyse on comsec that would be great.

Create a thread and lets get the ball rolling.
Say entries have to be in... by... friday??


----------



## Temjin

I was wondering did STC even know what caused the resource boom and why mining shares rosed so much for the past few years? And why fundamentally flawed to assume mining stocks will continue to do the same for the next 10 years?

I think this thread INSULTS the intelligence of this forum. 

Oh wait, the cognitive biases, right.


----------



## questionall_42

Kauri said:


> I think people are treating this thread with far more seriousness than it deserves, and also are taking it off in directions which suit them.
> The original premise put forward was to .. *without any analysis*.....*randomly* select *one*  low priced *stock* in the mining sector and place $9500 on it, not look at it for 2 1/2 years, and see what the end result was.
> In the spirit of this challenge I have scribbled down the codes of sub $1 mining stocks on a sheet of paper, and to make it truly independant have taken it next door to my neighbours Budgie cage. They have unerringly and without hesitation dropped their unique indicator on *BTV* .
> So put me down for $9500 of BTV at yesterdays close of $0.135c..
> 
> PS... *BTV*... that seems co-incidentally to ring a few bells for some reason...
> Yours in all sincerity
> Kauri...





Finally a tip.  Thank you budgie.  Order in tomorrow.  That way I don't have to think.



Temjin said:


> I was wondering did STC even know what caused the resource boom and why mining shares rosed so much for the past few years? And why fundamentally flawed to assume mining stocks will continue to do the same for the next 10 years?
> 
> I think this thread INSULTS the intelligence of this forum.
> 
> Oh wait, the cognitive biases, right.




I totally agree.  STC, best of luck.  Maybe try sportsbet as well.


----------



## greggy

STC,

I've got a dart board at home.  Would you like to use it in picking winners.  There's no need for T/A or F/A, is there? LOL!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Everyone trades differently and that is what makes the markets challenging.

The best posts I have seen on this thread are the ones alerting new traders to the infinite variables.


----------



## adobee

greggy said:


> STC,
> 
> I've got a dart board at home.  Would you like to use it in picking winners.  There's no need for T/A or F/A, is there? LOL!




I often look at the share competitions at the back of the business section of papers I think it is the Sunday Telegraph. Not surprisingly the DART BOARD and PRIMARY SCHOOL KID followed by the astrologist seem to out perform most of the pro traders.


----------



## cmh888

It's not exactly turning $10k into half a million, but I have made impressive gains in short periods of time by selecting stocks according to set criteria, none of which involve charting. Saying that, I am now trying to learn the basics of charting. I try to determine the value of a share by looking at past, current and future variables including financials, contracts, political climates, competition, and more. I will soon add charting to this mix, but only out of interest. I believe I can make a reasonable prediction about where a company and share price is heading using research. *In the past month* I have bought OXR, QOL and CCI using this approach. All have already delivered excellent returns and I expect, from my research, that they will keep going. (CCI bought at 12c, closed today at 19.5 ... QOL bout at 32c, closed today at 42.5c ... OXR bought at $3.50, closed today at $3.94).

 I think 'choosing any mining company and sitting on it' is a bad idea. I can list many many mining and/or exploration companies who have failed to come good over between 1 and 10 years so I certainly wouldn't have just put my money on any of them! Take NAE for example - $39 in 1996 to 0.30c today!


----------



## dj_420

I think this is the thread where Stop The Clock will make his return if MXR performs as expected!

I have had a look at MXR STC and I do think they look promising, I would just like to see some drill results first


----------



## saichuen

Stop_the_clock said:


> Is it just about control and ego?
> 
> If you can chart it, then you have control over it?
> 
> Whats wrong with just letting a stock run?
> 
> I am beggining to change my views about T/A and F/A and trading as well.  I think that too many members get caught up in the hype of it and forget about just buying in and holding.




I don't think charting/TA is meant to be 'controlling' as you may have perceived it to be? It's probably more about trend analysis I suspect. 

And there's absolutely nothing wrong with just letting a stock run.The higher the better I would imagine. The only problem is which one will do just that?

While I don't admit that I'm fully into both TA and FA but I do rely on them to a certain degree to help me make as much as I can an informed decision. It's no guarantee but I think it's a good start and certainly better than nothing. Select on fundamentals, trade on charts. 

That said, I had AIM at as low as 7.9c and sold off at 16c. I believe it has gone as high as above the 40s and now at around mid 20s. Sometimes I do wonder just like you. Perhaps I should have just let it be. 

I like the fundamentals of MLX and it may be just the next winner on my watchlist. 

Just my views.

Happy trading all!


----------



## Ageo

cmh888 said:


> Take NAE for example - $39 in 1996 to 0.30c today!




Wouldnt that tell you thats a possible buy sign?


----------



## vishalt

Ageo said:


> Wouldnt that tell you thats a possible buy sign?




Yeah lol, defintely OVER-sold hey!

Stop_the_clock you're absolutely right, your way of trading has actually opened up my eyes, but not everyone likes trading in such a way. 

I feel like its an art that blends in both technical & fundamental analysis (and a bit of good luck never hurts). In the case of your FMG example I think its the same as buying a lot of lottery tickets, you hit the jackpot stock, and like another forumer mentioned thats lucky because a lot of micro/small caps never actually end up taking off, even in 10 years time, no matter how rigorously you read the prospectus and fingered their corporate activity. 

And sometimes what can be worse is watching your investment finally come to life, only to collapse to its origins once again because you're a bad seller. 

Take Bendigo Mining for an example, my Dad played in it. It was a nice 20c in 1995, and then it catapulted to $4.60, hell impressive indeed, but my Dad, being a newbie and a bad seller at the time, didnt close the deal. The stock plummeted to 80c again in no-time, quadruple gain in no-time, still not bad, but the ghostly prospects of "I could have had 100x more but stupid me I didn't sell it" haunted him so he held on, the stock surged again to $2.80, and again, now, its collapsed to near 30c, 10c in 12 years lol. 

Not everyone likes trading the same, I personally don't like holding stocks for over a month, I start chucking tantrums and screaming "its going down, its a bear market" or if they're up "market is gonna crash I SHOULD SELL!". 

I like cashing my gains from my set amount of investment capitals and putting it in a locked bank account so I don't do anything stupid with it. 

You think thats bad?

Me and dad have a friend who doesn't even know how to hold a stock - literally - if the stock is down TWO CENTS from where he bought it, he sells, and its not 2c on a micro-cap either. He recently bought Woodside at $41 (broke resistance), the stock went to $40.98 and he just sold, and he's basically lost a lot of money because of that inability.


----------



## brilliantmichael

Why not have a crack at _Who Wants To Be A Millionaire_ and see how you go. That takes skill too.


----------



## Ageo

Has anyone every thought of incorporating the protective put strategy when trading long term stocks? i mean if you look at some companies dividend yield its more than enough to cover the premium for a at the money put option over a 12 month period (and if the share price moves up fast just close out your position and re-open a new 1). So basically you have no income stream as thats paying your insurance so you are uneffected by a drop in price but your exposed to potential upside capital gain (which is unlimited)? simple yet sometimes a very effective strategy for long term positions.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

brilliantmichael said:


> Why not have a crack at _Who Wants To Be A Millionaire_ and see how you go. That takes skill too.



Not Sure about that, Hang on i,m just gonna poll the MOB  
(oh thats 1 vs 100) MOB, MOB, MOB,


----------



## skating101

Stop the clock did make an interesting observation, that we might be doing slightly too much over analysing of the market. I personally believe in solid fundamental analysis and then buy and hold while also observing the underlying funddamentals of the market, the sector and the company. We could be doing too much technical analysis especially over the short term trends and hence preventing us from making solid long term investments.


----------



## renmc

Hi guys,

im new to shares so i dont know a better place to go and im sorry its not related to the topic. I would like to know when is the earliest time to sell a physical sahre and still receive the options. If today were the ex date, can i sell them today and still be registered or do i have to wait 5 more days to the actual registered date. 

thanks guys


----------



## austek

Miles of thread postings and no mention of Twiggy Forrestor, the guy who started FMG, the Company mentioned in post No1.

Before FMG he ran Anaconda Nickel (ANL) into the ground, promising production dates he never intended to achieve.  He fought with the Unions and lost.  Borowed Millions from the Yanks and lost all there money, in a failed effort to develop a zinc acid leaching process.  Went belly up.

He then had the gaul to ask the AQmericans for cash to start FMG.  With a lot of fan fare in the US they hailed him a mining hero, yet put simply he was just a farmer with the gift of the gab.

Installs oodles of confidence in investors that new him here through the mid nineties.

Have to hand it to him for getting FMG to this point in time though. My point is that when he started FMG, not many here would trust the guy.

BTW I bought a $10k position in SNX around 1998 for 29c each, they hit $20 in 2000 and although I sold a parcel at $10, most were sold at 65c a year later.

austek


----------



## nomore4s

austek said:


> BTW I bought a $10k position in SNX around 1998 for 29c each, they hit $20 in 2000 and although I sold a parcel at $10, most were sold at 65c a year later.




Ouch, now that's a good advertisement for trailing stops.

You did well to hold it all the way to $20.00 though, I don't think I could/would have.


----------



## Ageo

austek said:


> BTW I bought a $10k position in SNX around 1998 for 29c each, they hit $20 in 2000 and although I sold a parcel at $10, most were sold at 65c a year later.
> 
> austek




Correct me if im wrong but you bought 10k worth of 29c shares (34,482 shares) and they hit $20 which if you sold even half of those at that price it would have been over $348,000? Wouldnt some sort of stop loss even creep slightly into your mind???


----------



## austek

I really don't wish to go down that track.  But I guess I led you to the question.

At the time, I was not a trader, but it sure gave me the motivation to become one.  The investing was carried out by my FP, on my behalf as a client.

 My only contribution was the s/fund money and that I was asked to investigate the company as a viable investment due to my experience with manufacturing plants.

I now know all about risk management as a trader, and you know why mine is much tighter than most.

 The reason I mentioned SNX is that in my view "buy & hold is dead"

If you think you can pick the one in a thousand that bolts, forget it and buy a ticket in lotto.     FMG would have been the most unlikeliest stock at the time it listed with Twiggy at the helm


----------



## Julia

renmc said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> im new to shares so i dont know a better place to go and im sorry its not related to the topic. I would like to know when is the earliest time to sell a physical sahre and still receive the options. If today were the ex date, can i sell them today and still be registered or do i have to wait 5 more days to the actual registered date.
> 
> thanks guys




Do you mean "receive the options" or "receive the dividend"?

PS  We're not all guys here!


----------



## adobee

I have taken this approach with BRO, it was suggested by my neighbour who knows nothing however the purchase price is 0.007 they are commencing in mining and other stuff and whilst they have minute chance of success there exploration has as much chance as anyone else. $1000 in good find and a bit of hype and the stock hits $3 428% increase $428,000 further finds hits $10 I am a millionaire...  chances are slim company and directors look dodgy .. hey this could be the next FMG


----------



## TheAbyss

rico01 said:


> I've bought a million FNT and 500,000 YML. Will they work 4 me




Tell me you still have the 500,000 YML/BRM Rico


----------



## njc.corp

Some very interesting facts and good reading-

Thanks-

Nick--


----------



## tech/a

Actually I agree with Kris on this---where ever he is.

With sound trade management trading R/R there are very good "Possibilities".
If You had $25K to park/play with you could say have 8 $3k trades.

Would be an interesting exercise.


----------



## njc.corp

tech/a said:


> Actually I agree with Kris on this---where ever he is.
> 
> With sound trade management trading R/R there are very good "Possibilities".
> If You had $25K to park/play with you could say have 8 $3k trades.
> 
> Would be an interesting exercise.




could u break it down for me-

I am in the above boat -

Thanks

Nick--


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## BenH

I am in a similar boat but unfortunately only have 10 K to invest. So ive got four stocks, INP, MHL, SAE, and BHP. They are all going green at the moment so i hope its all good for a while  Gee, turning it into 20 K would be fantastic , i guess its possible, but $550,000, hmmmm i think that may be a little out of the question lol, but i could dream.


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## Markcoinoz

tech/a said:


> Actually I agree with Kris on this---where ever he is.
> 
> With sound trade management trading R/R there are very good "Possibilities".
> If You had $25K to park/play with you could say have 8 $3k trades.
> 
> Would be an interesting exercise.




Hi Tech/a,

This has brought out some very interesting concepts.
I read through this entire thread.

One of your posts:  Excellent post.
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One strategy I have mentioned before is that of "Free trades".
Once a trade reaches 100% (Or whatever you choose) sell the initial capital and just let the Profit side of the trade go on indefinitely. It can be traded again and again if you like. Building profit and removing Base capital to explore other opportunities.
Eventually over time you could have 20 or so stocks all trading in profit (As they would have to be delisted to lose it all!) letting profit run.

Further you could remove profit from those going stagnant and put it into those which are booming.---a million ways to improve performance.

Much easier to let a profit run when
(1) You have one.
(2) You don't need it to live on.
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I think the Free Trade strategy can be extremely effective.
However, IMO it still comes down to research as to which stocks to pick.

I try to combine Fundamentals with T/A.

1)  Look for the sector that is performing the best.
2)  Look for the leaders in that sector.
3)  Evaluate near term producers in that sector. (Undervalued)
4)  Purchase them in the hope they reach 100% of your investment.
5)  Sell initial capital and let profits run.
6)  Buy and sell along the way.  T/A comes in handy at this point.
7)  Repeat process with your profits when looking for other companies.

The above is fairly standard.
However, IMO the key to finding a potential longterm stock is to identify which sector is going to be the next Bull run.

ATM, many are focused in the Grains and Fertilisers.

I would suggest to keep a close eye on Transport as that is an area that has massive growth potential over the next few years. 

Cheers markcoinoz


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## Spanning Tree

> So it really does pose the question are most of us just simply wasting time mulling over hours and hours of charts, glued to a computer screen etc, when the majority of us could just buy almost any mining stock in the midst of a mining boom, and make squillions, just by being patient.



But in order to know that the mining sector is where you should invest, and at what time you must invest, may require some chart studying.


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## njc.corp

After reading  the whole 10 pages- i understand the stc comments-

some of the posters have called it silly but i don't

in the world we live in what's 100% anymore-apart from taxes which is up a little every year in some kind -

? to all of us- and let's be honest here-how many people have picked a horse because its got a good name to it or the horse's number because its your b'day number?

i know i have-am i silly- maybe i am silly if i told u for example that i put $5 k on it-i bet everyone who say i have more money then sense-but if i put $10.00 on it everyone here would say its only $10.00?

the point is that in this stockmarket/betting feild its not bulletproof wether u study and get tips and chart this- (and we all know we are betting so dont give me  if u study this and that u reduce the lost-)

reduce the lost? is that not the same as losing the whole lot-wether a bit or the whole lot?

who here  spends hours  and hours reading-doing figures-looking at charts-  from this thread i gather a few

and book's-dont even get me started on books-by the time u read everybook out their when will u jump in this betting feild?

so my ? to the people who do all the above have u always won or gain a small % or reduce the loss-

or u guy's piss  that someone can come along and say put 10 k on that and 2-3 years later they cash out at say 50 k while u are winning a bit  or reducing the lost with so many hour's under your belt?

so my summay is  thats  everyone has a style and its their view and  even i forget that's its not our money--

i think stc idea or pratice is less stressfull in a way and cheaper-because  from what i gather he is not a everyday trader-

buy now and see how its doing later and carry  on about your life-beat's getting quare eye's from vviewing the computer screen all day long-

some of u do this for a living and others do it for a bit more income--
Nick--


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