# Pull ya DAX up!



## ThingyMajiggy

DAX Trading thread, ready set go! 

So far tonight has been really nice to read on the order flow tonight, one of those "obvious" days, pity they aren't all like this, currently not trading, just watching. Trying to get a sim login(another one, about my 5000th haha) so I can continue having a go while I save up for my real account. 

Be good to get some volume interpretation going on in here too on this chart by the experts. 

Turns out there's not any one thing that is the key(except maybe realising this?), it really is dynamic, ebbs and flows, combinations of things that line up, and context is massively important, including how the day/week has panned out, at least that's how I'm understanding it, then jump on once it gets in that mood with oompf behind it and manage downside like a demon? Am I on the money? 

Also knowing that feeling, when you've seen something before and you recognise it straight away....and take action.


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## peter2

ThingyMajiggy: I'd like to help by offering some suggestions, but I'm a bit reluctant as you've posted twice as many as I have. 

Every day is "obvious" with hindsight. You don't need any volume interpretation from the "experts". 
As for the rest, blah, blah, blah...(insert a "wake up!" smilie). :twak:

Look at the chart you posted. Do you see any patterns that you recognise? Can you recognise them as they form? Can you accurately describe them so that anyone can find them in your charts? 

I think it would be worth your time to describe a few patterns (or setups) and look for them in every session you watch/record. You don't need very many, just a few easily identifiable setups that you know you can use to create profits. For example:

One reversal or fade strategy that you like to use at marked support/resistance levels (or Prev Days H/L). 

tech/a: has already suggested one of his fav's; the high volume reversal setup.

Check your chart. What happened to price after the two highest volume bars?  Could you have placed a sell stop under the low of the bar in a few seconds. Was there enough price movement to create a profit?  I think yes. The 1st one a small profit. The 2nd one a good profit. Write a description so you can identify them. Record them in a spreadsheet. Collect 20 of them and then consider if this setup is worth mastering. 

One break-out setup: You know what a BO is. Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.

One trend continuation setup (like a pullback for example). Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.

If you really study the charts you'll notice that certain setups happen at certain levels. Describe them, record them ... etc.  Slowly collect your own intra-day playbook of profitable setups.


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## ThingyMajiggy

peter2 said:


> ThingyMajiggy: I'd like to help by offering some suggestions, but I'm a bit reluctant as you've posted twice as many as I have.
> 
> Every day is "obvious" with hindsight. You don't need any volume interpretation from the "experts".
> As for the rest, blah, blah, blah...(insert a "wake up!" smilie). :twak:
> 
> Look at the chart you posted. Do you see any patterns that you recognise? Can you recognise them as they form? Can you accurately describe them so that anyone can find them in your charts?
> 
> I think it would be worth your time to describe a few patterns (or setups) and look for them in every session you watch/record. You don't need very many, just a few easily identifiable setups that you know you can use to create profits. For example:
> 
> One reversal or fade strategy that you like to use at marked support/resistance levels (or Prev Days H/L).
> 
> tech/a: has already suggested one of his fav's; the high volume reversal setup.
> 
> Check your chart. What happened to price after the two highest volume bars?  Could you have placed a sell stop under the low of the bar in a few seconds. Was there enough price movement to create a profit?  I think yes. The 1st one a small profit. The 2nd one a good profit. Write a description so you can identify them. Record them in a spreadsheet. Collect 20 of them and then consider if this setup is worth mastering.
> 
> One break-out setup: You know what a BO is. Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.
> 
> One trend continuation setup (like a pullback for example). Describe it and look for them in the charts. Record 20 of them and consider the possibilities.
> 
> If you really study the charts you'll notice that certain setups happen at certain levels. Describe them, record them ... etc.  Slowly collect your own intra-day playbook of profitable setups.




Cheers for the tips peter, that chart wasn't hindsight observations, I was watching it live and it's a little hard to post on a forum live thoughts on order flow, I just made that chart up to show the points I was seeing these things is all  

High volume fades still have the same problem, yes looking at that chart now it's easy to see the spots to fade, but as I've said before, watching it live is a lot harder as you don't know what the "large" volume is, often there are groups of large volume bars where the next bar totally blitzes the previous bar's volume and I get totally ripped to shreds trying to fade these large volume bars, that's talking just the bar and volume as an entry, could work better with other factors included I guess(RSI etc?)


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## ThingyMajiggy

Got a sim account set up to trade. 

-E2,212.50 tonight. Was just wrong on everything I did, tried fading, tried RSI, tried order flow, tried bounces off MA, nothing worked, no idea what I'm doing. Will keep going. I know one thing, where the bar/candle closes means absolutely nothing it seems. Plus overtrading.


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## tech/a

Good start Sam
It's worth th effort.
Just watch the trading un fold and let your
Brain just watch the action.
It will take time but you'll start to see
Patterns and price action that can be shaped into a trading plan.


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## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Good start Sam
> It's worth th effort.
> Just watch the trading un fold and let your
> Brain just watch the action.
> It will take time but you'll start to see
> Patterns and price action that can be shaped into a trading plan.




How is 2000 euros in the red a good start?  

Will do, playing on market replays now trying to make sense of something and find something that feels right and comfortable for me.


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## Modest

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How is 2000 euros in the red a good start?




All time spent at the coalface is time well spent.


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## ThingyMajiggy

Modest said:


> All time spent at the coalface is time well spent.




Not if you don't learn what put you there in the first place?


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## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How is 2000 euros in the red a good start?
> 
> Will do, playing on market replays now trying to make sense of something and find something that feels right and comfortable for me.




(1) You traded---most don't even have a go.
(2) Its not 4000 Euro's

Put it in perspective its 80 ticks


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## ThingyMajiggy

Okay, serviced and washed my car so back to having more goes on sim with market replay in NT. Using a 3 minute chart now to try and stem my overtrading BS. +39.50 ticks(987.50EUR). 

Still got carried away and lost sight of the bigger picture I think, can see my trades where I cluster them together there, had no idea in there, everything I thought would happen didn't, or it swept back up/down immediately and the "sign" of strength or weakness was the total opposite and I got stopped out. It was like oh a break lower, weakness, I'll try a short on the re-test, enter short, nope goes straight back up into where it just broke out from, so okay I'll try a long then, nope, straight back down to where I was and stops me out again, long, short, long short, stopped a million times. 

Pro's: 

- Not as many trades
- Good entries and exit's on the good trades(especially first trade)
- Better patience

Cons:

- Had a stupid phase again where I was focused on each individual bar
- Death of a thousand cuts. 
- Last good trade entry was not 100% sure of why, yet it worked out rather well. 




Right, back to it, I'm going to farkin get this.


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## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Right, back to it, I'm going to farkin get this.





Lol  ....Hey Sam .... firstly, what a great Thread name!  Seriously one of the best named threads on ASF

Secondly, I'm not here to give you ANY advice ...... but encouragement I can give

I am possibly in a similar boat to you (mine may have a faulty bilge pump though) where I believe i am often close to finding a "plan" that works ... but then it doesn't.... but then it does again, so I am often brilliant; then not so brilliant all in the space of a few hours! ... 

I love trading; then I hate it (even though I still really love it) ... until I screw up really badly with some of my bad habits (e.g. over trading to play catch up because the trade I closed out an hour ago would now be in profit, so I chase all night on the wrong side of the curve because I deserve to be in profit !! ... mmmm )

Anyway you get the drift  ..... you are not alone with your frustrations ... but at least you have the common sense to keep "simming" it until it makes sense  ... unlike some of us who like to forward test everything with real money simply because it teaches us more when its "real" 

One small "not advice" advice (not directed at you, but perhaps anyone trying to find their edge) .... try to become more *pro*-active rather than *re*-active to price action  ...... If your Entry is taken when the "Chart looks good" ... its often likely either *too *late, or at best, you are about to take some heat (depending on the time frame being traded of course) 

Its Saturday night and I'm just ranting a bit, but I'm sure your documented experiences will be appreciated by many here on ASF so carry on ... and good luck!

Cheers.


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## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Lol  ....Hey Sam .... firstly, what a great Thread name!  Seriously one of the best named threads on ASF
> 
> Secondly, I'm not here to give you ANY advice ...... but encouragement I can give
> 
> I am possibly in a similar boat to you (mine may have a faulty bilge pump though) where I believe i am often close to finding a "plan" that works ... but then it doesn't.... but then it does again, so I am often brilliant; then not so brilliant all in the space of a few hours! ...
> 
> I love trading; then I hate it (even though I still really love it ... until I screw up really badly with some of my bad habits (e.g. over trading to play catch up because the trade I closed out an hour ago would now be in profit, so I chase all night on the wrong side of the curve because I deserve to be in profit !! ... mmmm )
> 
> Anyway you get the drift  ..... you are not alone with your frustrations ... but at least you have the common sense to keep "simming" it until it makes sense  ... unlike some of us who like to forward test everything with real money simply because it teaches us more when its "real"
> 
> One small "not advice" advice (not directed at you, but perhaps anyone trying to find their edge) .... try to become more *pro*-active rather than *re*-active to price action  ...... If your Entry is taken when the "Chart looks good" ... its often likely either *too *late, or at best, you are about to take some heat (depending on the time frame being traded of course)
> 
> Its Saturday night and I'm just ranting a bit, but I'm sure your documented experiences will be appreciated by many here on ASF so carry on ... and good luck!
> 
> Cheers.




Haha thanks! I thought the title fit in more ways than one 

Ahh yes I know the feeling! For me at least I think it's uncertainty, I'm trying to get to the stage where I know things will work in the long run, rather than just having a stab and hoping from things I've read or been told etc. but that is all just screen time I think, hence why I'm trying to find a stable setup I feel comfortable with and knuckling down into some 10x speed sim sessions  

Thanks for the rant, wondered if anyone was watching/reading this dribble in here, it's more for me to sort my crap out and do this properly really.


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## cynic

barney said:


> ... unlike some of us who like to forward test everything with real money simply because it teaches us more when its "real"
> ....



+1
I prefer live forward testing for similar reasons. 

However, on those occasions that I've chosen to trial something particularly novel, I've taken the precaution of forward testing on a demo/sim prior to investment of actual funds.



> ...I'm sure your documented experiences will be appreciated by many here on ASF so carry on ... and good luck!
> ...



+1 



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Got a sim account set up to trade.
> 
> -E2,212.50 tonight. Was just wrong on everything I did, tried fading, tried RSI, tried order flow, tried bounces off MA, nothing worked, no idea what I'm doing...



I believe I can readily identify the major spanner in the works here. It's called the "DAX" !

If ever there were an index that thoroughly deserved a four letter acronym beginning with "C", it is this one! 

It can be a total FTSEing  *!@#$* of a thing to trade!

After my last financial year of trading it, I'm seriously tempted to start a thread entitled "Dropping ma DAX".

However, please don't let me dissuade you. 


> ...Will keep going...



Glad to hear it!



Modest said:


> All time spent at the coalface is time well spent.




+1


tech/a said:


> (1) You traded---most don't even have a go.
> (2) Its not 4000 Euro's
> 
> Put it in perspective its 80 ticks



+1


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## Trembling Hand

Sam it may not surprise you that I disagree with all of the above. To be really getting any sort of long term benefit from practice it has to be very precise. Just sitting in front of a screen and banging out trades may be of benefit for a total newbie but you are not that. You have seen a market day play out more than most. You need to move on from that approach. 

Have a look at the other thread you started and read what those that are struggling did. They just did "stuff". Lots of different stuff but nothing with razor sharp focus.

They never became a specialist in anything. But they spent large parts of their life trying to crack the code, all different codes! It's just not going to work. You will never lay down the skill path ways in your brain by doing something different every 5 min. Deliberate practice is doing the same thing 100 times until you master it then moving to the next small skill. Its painful and boring as bat **** but thats the difference between the people who make it work at any cost and those that just do lots of stuff because they have a "passion for trading".

You have to gather 100s of days that you can label as different types of setups. Like,

Monday morning gaps 
Gap up
Gap down 
Trend down days 
Trend up days 
Morning reversals 
Chopping range days 
Big news ann
Etc etc 

The more specific the better. Then practice until you know what you are doing before moving onto the next pattern. 

It's time to stop spending your time at the coal face with all the other miners hoping to strike it rich. Time there just leaves you dirty.


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Sam it may not surprise you that I disagree with all of the above. To be really getting any sort of long term benefit from practice it has to be very precise. Just sitting in front of a screen and banging out trades may be of benefit for a total newbie but you are not that. You have seen a market day play out more than most. You need to move on from that approach.
> 
> Have a look at the other thread you started and read what those that are struggling did. They just did "stuff". Lots of different stuff but nothing with razor sharp focus.
> 
> They never became a specialist in anything. But they spent large parts of their life trying to crack the code, all different codes! It's just not going to work. You will never lay down the skill path ways in your brain by doing something different every 5 min. Deliberate practice is doing the same thing 100 times until you master it then moving to the next small skill. Its painful and boring as bat **** but thats the difference between the people who make it work at any cost and those that just do lots of stuff because they have a "passion for trading".
> 
> You have to gather 100s of days that you can label as different types of setups. Like,
> 
> Monday morning gaps
> Gap up
> Gap down
> Trend down days
> Trend up days
> Morning reversals
> Chopping range days
> Big news ann
> Etc etc
> 
> The more specific the better. Then practice until you know what you are doing before moving onto the next pattern.
> 
> It's time to stop spending your time at the coal face with all the other miners hoping to strike it rich. Time there just leaves you dirty.




Don't worry I disagree with it too, it's driving me mental, doesn't get me anywhere so I'm glad you said all the above. I just didn't/don't know what does get me onto the next level, so I'm all ears!

You mean printing days off and labeling them and putting all the same patterns together and then what, see if/how they reacted the same, or if there's patterns in what times of the day it turns type stuff? How can I practice that though? Particularly for market replay stuff, the market replay data I'm using JUST shows the session I'm replaying, I can't see what it did yesterday or last week etc.


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## CanOz

I think TH is talking about compiling a playbook, yes? 

An example of one of my plays is a short covering rally after a big sell off range extension. The sessions after the big range extension may rotate around in a new range. I don't expect another big move right away, but you can play the range. Then you can prepare yourself for a short covering rally or another range extension to the down side, depending on the bigger picture and the context....

Another one, news days. Quite often the best moves in a big news announcement are against the recent trend as trapper traders run for cover. NFP is like this and sets up well in the bonds and the Bund.

Just a couple of examples off the top of my head.

CanOz


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## CanOz

Another thing to keep in mind here too Sam, vol has dropped off significantly since the Greece resolution and the start of summer doldrums....

Plays developed now may no work later, plays developed prior may  not work as well now....

As a reference, the VX


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How can I practice that though? Particularly for market replay stuff, the market replay data I'm using JUST shows the session I'm replaying, I can't see what it did yesterday or last week etc.




Why not?

https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt7/?market_replay.htm


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Why not?
> 
> https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt7/?market_replay.htm




Because it's Ninja? It seems to barely work for whatever I want it to do. 

It literally doesn't show up...

JUST the session I'm replaying.

I'm using a market replay downloader, the replay data isn't my own(haven't been using NT to watch the live market), so I think it's something to do with that somehow, I've downloaded the entire Sep contract and can only view each individual session, doesn't load it all up.


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## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I think TH is talking about compiling a playbook, yes?
> CanOz




Yeah I know what he means, my question is how do I do that? Especially when I can only view one session at a time with no history, and back to my question....

Do I print out say 5 min charts and put all the ones that look the same(morning reversal, gap down, up, trend days) together and somehow that makes me profitable? Because replaying single day's back and farting around with stupid indicators/volume/S&R clearly isn't the way forward.


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## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I know what he means, my question is how do I do that? Especially when I can only view one session at a time with no history, and back to my question....
> 
> Do I print out say 5 min charts and put all the ones that look the same(morning reversal, gap down, up, trend days) together and somehow that makes me profitable? Because replaying single day's back and farting around with stupid indicators/volume/S&R clearly isn't the way forward.




Well I guess in that case, assuming you have access to historical data, you can use that to plan the trading session....what you think the possibilities are. Then, without looking at what actually happened, download the replay data and see how it plays out against your hypothesise and levels....

Have one workspace for the replay and one for planning. Use some longer term charts. Take note of some of the key levels around old ranges. The longer the market spends in those ranges the more significant the centre, highs and lows of the range will be.

When you specify what to replay, you should be able to start the replay at the first of the week and go right through, speeding up to 500x for over night in active periods.

Let me know if you need some help. I'm in Australia so I can Skype with you if you need some help with ninja.


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## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I know what he means, my question is how do I do that? Especially when I can only view one session at a time with no history, and back to my question....
> 
> Do I print out say 5 min charts and put all the ones that look the same(morning reversal, gap down, up, trend days) together and somehow that makes me profitable? Because replaying single day's back and farting around with stupid indicators/volume/S&R clearly isn't the way forward.




May be another way thinking of it... using tennis as analogy. You need to practice serves, topspin forehand, slice backhand, cross court backhand, defensive lob, overhead etc etc. You need these to become a skillful player... and practice involves repetition. You keep practicing those backhand, even though you know your coach is giving you a backhand to hit. Then over time, you develop the muscle memory to hit the backhand in real time...  

Let's say you have a collection of 15 strong trending days. What if you trade them again and again on the sim, with the full knowledge that it's a strong trending day? Would that be useful? Would you start to see something that happens in strong trending days that you may not realise beforehand? May be in time, you will start to recognise those in real walk forward and be able to capitalise when you are presented with the same pattern?

I don't even trade futures so what I am saying may or may not work... but at least it's a different approach to just sit and watch.


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## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> May be another way thinking of it... using tennis as analogy. You need to practice serves, topspin forehand, slice backhand, cross court backhand, defensive lob, overhead etc etc. You need these to become a skillful player... and practice involves repetition. You keep practicing those backhand, even though you know your coach is giving you a backhand to hit. Then over time, you develop the muscle memory to hit the backhand in real time...




Perfect analogy. In fact was going to put just that yesterday but was out and about typing on my phone.



skc said:


> Let's say you have a collection of 15 strong trending days. What if you trade them again and again on the sim, with the full knowledge that it's a strong trending day? Would that be useful? Would you start to see something that happens in strong trending days that you may not realise beforehand? May be in time, you will start to recognise those in real walk forward and be able to capitalise when you are presented with the same pattern?
> 
> I don't even trade futures so what I am saying may or may not work... but at least it's a different approach to just sit and watch.


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## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Perfect analogy. In fact was going to put just that yesterday but was out and about typing on my phone.




Still dont understand.

Perhaps if you were to attach your 'playbook' that would be very helpful

For educational purposes


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## fiftyeight

Ahhhh the old chicken and egg

Staring at the screen is of limited use and has diminishing return on time invested.

So you should have razor sharp focus on the plays you have in your play book.... which you dont have yet haha  

I love this game


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## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Ahhhh the old chicken and egg
> 
> Staring at the screen is of limited use and has diminishing return on time invested.
> 
> So you should have razor sharp focus on the plays you have in your play book.... which you dont have yet haha
> 
> I love this game




There is probably 6 types of markets that continually reappear intraday in equity indexes. If you cannot figure out that after a few years of looking at the screens then I would say with certainty you should start thinking about another hobby. Once you can read what type of market you are currently looking at then the hard part begins - leaning to trade them.


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## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> you should start thinking about another hobby




HAHA working a 4:1 roster, this is about the only hobby I have left at the moment and starring at screens is free. I am making slowwwwwwww progress so I wont give it up just yet


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## tech/a

Smashed down

At support


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## >Apocalypto<

my run of going ok continues. mixing 5min with 1min helps when taking 1 min trades. 

couple losses tonight but last trade made the day. 

same idea following trend looking for turns to by and sell. last trade of 5min. 

5min and 1min, attached, personally feel i over traded a bit tonight on LON open...


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## >Apocalypto<

found 5min ents dont go so well in he first hour lost all of them. 1 min still strong.. found few hours after the open the 5mins start to work a bit better. 

still using ninja to pick my ents off the 1min. 
overall 5min trades lost for today.

very decent night on 1min +21pts lost 18 on the 5min


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## >Apocalypto<

Sam are you still trading the DAXI ?


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## >Apocalypto<

Lon session today. hit a lucky 15min entry got 23 out of it... 

1min hard a very nice session but made one mistake that cut the 10 to 5,made another silly short that worked. called it a day then as staring to be dumb. missed a few due to be scared and in dumb short.. bad trade was a short thinking the high was found.. rookie mistake a on a charging DAX. (follow the money)

made some 5min trades tonight but same as last night loss overall. no idea why i can make cash on 1min but struggle on the 5 min


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## ThingyMajiggy

>Apocalypto< said:


> Sam are you still trading the DAXI ?




No mate.


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## >Apocalypto<

ThingyMajiggy said:


> No mate.




not long ago Sam u where doing very well.. mainly upstairs mate. hope you get back into it. maybe trade cfd on tiny positions to get your mojo back.


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## ThingyMajiggy

>Apocalypto< said:


> not long ago Sam u where doing very well.. mainly upstairs mate. hope you get back into it. maybe trade cfd on tiny positions to get your mojo back.




Nah, turns out I'm too stupid for trading.


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## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nah, turns out I'm too stupid for trading.




F*** me, if i had a USD for every time i said that to myself over the last 6 years, I'd have a mountain of dosh!


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## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nah, turns out I'm too stupid for trading.




keep kicking the box, Sam !!


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## sails

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nah, turns out I'm too stupid for trading.




Sam, it takes time and patience to find what works for each individual and that will most likely include winning times and losing times and it can take years for some.  Maybe replace your avatar with something more positive - that one makes me feel hopeless every time I see it   I doubt it will fix everything but could be a good start to something more positive


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## ThingyMajiggy

sails said:


> Sam, it takes time and patience to find what works for each individual and that will most likely include winning times and losing times and it can take years for some.  Maybe replace your avatar with something more positive - that one makes me feel hopeless every time I see it   I doubt it will fix everything but could be a good start to something more positive




I love my avatar, makes me laugh every time  Pretty much sums up my experience of trying to trade rather well, everything I try is wrong so I might as well have been doing what my avatar is for the last few years.


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## tech/a

Sam

I've met you.
Your not stupid.

You need to *GET IT*.
This is what your struggling with.

I also believe your undercapitalised for trading the DAX.
$35 a tick and needing 5k to float the swings is at this point
probably a sticking point for you in your psyche.

Try something in the eminis at $1 a tick. 
Or trade something like the smalls Im doing the exercise on.
Pick up a few K and gain confidence without panicking about loss.

You have to learn to embrace being wrong---learn how to 
benefit from it---you'll be here (wrong) very often.

Get your head around what makes things move in the direction they do.
And there are many Macro and Micro things that do this.

Ill keep posting you charts when I'm trading to do as much as possible
as close to real time as I can.
I note that like most you tend to fight the trend---always looking for the turn.
Change that thinking most instruments don't alter long term direction mid session
and if they do its GLARING.

Don't give up Sam 
Its something that when you *GET IT*----you'll have for life!


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## >Apocalypto<

last night easy, 20 pts less in a minute. 

tonight, harder slog got out with 15pts after being up then down then up down and finally up and out.


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## Boggo

Doing ok here on 15 minute


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## subterfuge

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nah, turns out I'm too stupid for trading.




I admire your honesty 
I'm pretty sure that i'm just not intelligent enough either.
I've been losing (live and demo) for about 5 years now! I've kind of given up on the dream of ever becoming profitable, but I still doubt i'll ever completely quit. Probably suffering commitment bias! (I've spent too much money and time to give up now!)

I went through a spell of believing that it was actually impossible. Everyone is an expert in hindsight but nobody is able to prove it in real time.
That is until I came across someone on skype some time back who changed my opinion!
He traded the ES and killed it everyday for the best part of a year before my very eyes. Small 2 point stops. Targets of around 5-10 points. Ridiculous hit rate!
I now know that it's possible, but I have no idea how he done it. I know that he used charts, but I also got the distinct impression that he relied on something else. I don't think it was anything to do with the DOM etc. I'm not really sure what's left, though! lol

Anyway, good luck!


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## tech/a

Sam
From the little exchange we have had
I can see your getting tangled up trying
To trade noise.
Start with daily see if you can get direction right
In that timeframe

Then drop to 15 min
Get profitable on sim there.
Then no lower than 5 min.

Each timeframe leads to the next.
You'll see what I mean as you spend more time at it.

Trade sim no pressure with cash.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Sam
> From the little exchange we have had
> I can see your getting tangled up trying
> To trade noise.
> Start with daily see if you can get direction right
> In that timeframe
> 
> Then drop to 15 min
> Get profitable on sim there.
> Then no lower than 5 min.
> 
> Each timeframe leads to the next.
> You'll see what I mean as you spend more time at it.
> 
> Trade sim no pressure with cash.




Yeah noise gets me, especially on cash open when it chops and churns like mad, seem to do okay in other times of the day, so been trying to not play any trades during the first few minutes of cash open to avoid my inevitable hole-digging that I always do. 

Have also been printing off each days sessions 3m charts(enough to see the whole day on one page for printing) and putting them in different categories, seems to be a LOT of morning reversal days, particularly within an hour either side of the cash open seems to be when the day's big move can often get underway. Other than that it seems to be range days are common where it tends to break the previous swing high or low just by a little bit then back into the range, like it catches people out breaking out then pops back into its previous range, rinse and repeat. 

But all still just trying to make observations, and trying to determine the best way to trade them. 

When watching the market live I have 3m, 15m and daily open.

I replay days back, I'm printing days off, I'm watching/trading it live on sim. No doubt it's all wrong, but I'm buggered if I know what else I'm supposed to be doing.


----------



## VSntchr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I replay days back, I'm printing days off, I'm watching/trading it live on sim. No doubt it's all wrong, but I'm buggered if I know what else I'm supposed to be doing.




Sam, one thing that I have been doing is making use of Evernote. It saves me having to physically print charts as I just save them individually as files and then drag/drop them into Evernote and write up my trade reviews/chart notes in there. The functionality of Evernote is quite extensive and I've found searching for previous notes pretty simple. Not a plug for Evernote (I only use the free version), I am sure there is plenty of similar software out there - just what I have found to work well.

With all that said, I understand some people have a certain method and find that physical notes are more useful to them.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

VSntchr said:


> Sam, one thing that I have been doing is making use of Evernote. It saves me having to physically print charts as I just save them individually as files and then drag/drop them into Evernote and write up my trade reviews/chart notes in there. The functionality of Evernote is quite extensive and I've found searching for previous notes pretty simple. Not a plug for Evernote (I only use the free version), I am sure there is plenty of similar software out there - just what I have found to work well.
> 
> With all that said, I understand some people have a certain method and find that physical notes are more useful to them.




Yeah have thought about it, and used to use OneNote(I think that's what it's called) but I think it helps me more actually printing it out and putting in all in one folder, plus I had the folder sitting there so might as well use it


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+21.5 ticks on DAX
+0.15c on CL 

For tonight. 

Lord give me patience, NOW


----------



## minwa

tech/a said:


> Sam
> From the little exchange we have had
> I can see your getting tangled up trying
> To trade noise.
> Start with daily see if you can get direction right
> In that timeframe
> 
> Then drop to 15 min
> Get profitable on sim there.
> Then no lower than 5 min.
> 
> Each timeframe leads to the next.
> You'll see what I mean as you spend more time at it.
> 
> Trade sim no pressure with cash.




Great advice I agree - start on the daily. Ask yourself where price is reaching for - liquidity/orders. Then trade with a bias towards that direction intraday. 



ThingyMajiggy said:


> seems to be a LOT of morning reversal days, particularly within an hour either side of the cash open seems to be when the day's big move can often get underway. Other than that it seems to be range days are common where it tends to break the previous swing high or low just by a little bit then back into the range, like it catches people out breaking out then pops back into its previous range, rinse and repeat.




Never looked a intraday DAX chart before but on the Spoos (S&P) usually in the first hour after equity open I'll wait for a fake move that take the market lower and then bottoms/reverses for a strong up move into lunchtime - morning trend. (same for reverse - rallies higher for a downswing.) 

Is there different indices for the German market ? I watch the Nasdaq/Dow Industrials/S&Ps & when one diverges is my signal. Also different days of the week matter to me in the US market - since you're already sorting them may as well sort them into day of week and see if you can spot any patterns.


----------



## minwa

The trade today.. Strong selloff off the open - triggering stops protecting longs & sell stops of breakout/momentum traders. Big boys absorb the liquidity & accumulate longs at discount - Nasdaq unwilling to go lower <- they tip their hand. Up swing into 11.30-12pm - this is the morning trend. Which contract was stronger - Nasdaq - rallying 0.9% vs 0.8% in the Dow/S&P. Yes it ended up with a down day but nevertheless you can catch the morning trend. Also note it's the same fractal pattern on a bigger timeframe - market taken slightly higher first to go lower (imagine/google those wyckoff/weinstein accumulation/distribution patterns).

Hope it gives you some ideas - check to see if it works with the DAX.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

minwa said:


> Great advice I agree - start on the daily. Ask yourself where price is reaching for - liquidity/orders. Then trade with a bias towards that direction intraday.
> 
> 
> 
> Never looked a intraday DAX chart before but on the Spoos (S&P) usually in the first hour after equity open I'll wait for a fake move that take the market lower and then bottoms/reverses for a strong up move into lunchtime - morning trend. (same for reverse - rallies higher for a downswing.)
> 
> Is there different indices for the German market ? I watch the Nasdaq/Dow Industrials/S&Ps & when one diverges is my signal. Also different days of the week matter to me in the US market - since you're already sorting them may as well sort them into day of week and see if you can spot any patterns.




Yeah good idea printing out the days, I should go back and write through on all the charts what day's they were, probably are some patterns over the course of the week. Yeah there is the Eurostoxx(FESX) which is like a European ES. Problem is I'm running out of real estate to watch everything 



minwa said:


> The trade today.. Strong selloff off the open - triggering stops protecting longs & sell stops of breakout/momentum traders. Big boys absorb the liquidity & accumulate longs at discount - Nasdaq unwilling to go lower <- they tip their hand. Up swing into 11.30-12pm - this is the morning trend. Which contract was stronger - Nasdaq - rallying 0.9% vs 0.8% in the Dow/S&P. Yes it ended up with a down day but nevertheless you can catch the morning trend. Also note it's the same fractal pattern on a bigger timeframe - market taken slightly higher first to go lower (imagine/google those wyckoff/weinstein accumulation/distribution patterns).
> 
> Hope it gives you some ideas - check to see if it works with the DAX.




Yeah definitely seems to be a theme, if it's going to turn it usually does it around cash open then something may happen again around the US cash open.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+42 ticks on DAX
7 trades: 6 winners, 1 loser. 
Trading 1 lot.

Happy with entries with quick reward, averaged 4 mins in the market instead of the usual rubbish entry, goes against me immediately then spend the next 10 minutes figuring out whether to stay in or not. 

Patience paying off  

Done for tonight.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+80 ticks on DAX. 

Okay but considering that it's dropped almost 300 points, I probably should have gotten more out of it, but amazingly most of my trades were actually longs, fader much? 

Actually called it early on too that it seemed like a downtrend day(in my head, but didn't act on it). 

Turned out to be what I would say qualifies as a downtrend day...




But instead of shorting and following my gut instinct I fight and fade instead . Ah well it's easy in hindsight I suppose  

Now in true DAX form when I wake up in the early hours of the morning it's likely to have completely reversed and closed back above 10,000


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

ThingyMajiggy said:


> +80 ticks on DAX.
> 
> Okay but considering that it's dropped almost 300 points, I probably should have gotten more out of it, but amazingly most of my trades were actually longs, fader much?
> 
> Actually called it early on too that it seemed like a downtrend day(in my head, but didn't act on it).
> 
> Turned out to be what I would say qualifies as a downtrend day...
> 
> View attachment 64405
> 
> 
> But instead of shorting and following my gut instinct I fight and fade instead . Ah well it's easy in hindsight I suppose
> 
> Now in true DAX form when I wake up in the early hours of the morning it's likely to have completely reversed and closed back above 10,000




Whoops been reading NT wrong, so double my stats as far as up or down ticks, turns out NT shows _points_ profit not ticks, so its actually +160 ticks for today as the DAX moves in 0.5 increments, 2000EUR anyway, wasn't adding up for a bit there!


----------



## Modest

Smack dat dax up


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Modest said:


> Smack dat dax up




I should have taken action on my suspicion of it going to be a trend day, could have done much better  Unsure if there are any patterns leading up in the prior days that hint we might be having a trend day soon. 

Might do some stats on if we have a range of 100/200/300 points what the average % change is the next day, or might be better doing it as closing up or down 300 points rather than range as that would imply a trending day.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Okay so I _think_ I have sussed out what happens on average when we have Xpt(ticks) trend days, both up and down days. 

So there's 100pts, 200pts, 300pts and 400pts(not many occurrences) days that I've done. 

DT - Down Trend
UT - Up Trend
avg - average
med - median

In case it's not obvious enough :

All calculated on < or > basis, not <= or >=. 

So taking the 300pt one, it seems to me that when we have a 300pt down trend day the _average_ NEXT day percent change is +1.21%, so a strong down trend day is on average responded to with a 1% up day, and vice versa for up trend days. 

I did this on daily data back to 1997 but obviously in the early years, days this big weren't very common at all, so it gets more regular around the 2000's onward. 




My brain needs a rest now...


----------



## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Okay so I _think_ I have sussed out what happens on average when we have Xpt(ticks) trend days, both up and down days.
> 
> So there's 100pts, 200pts, 300pts and 400pts(not many occurrences) days that I've done.




Thanks for sharing.

You should consider using % rather than 300 pts. Back in 1997 the Dax was around 3000 level so a 300 pt drop would have been pretty crazy. With change to % you'd get quite a few more data points to improve your analysis.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

skc said:


> Thanks for sharing.
> 
> You should consider using % rather than 300 pts. Back in 1997 the Dax was around 3000 level so a 300 pt drop would have been pretty crazy. With change to % you'd get quite a few more data points to improve your analysis.




Yeah true, thought that while I was doing this lot  it's the more recent years that matter anyway as it was barely doing anything in 1997, but will get onto it to see how how much it changes my findings


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+140 ticks on DAX. 
6 trades.

Getting a nervous feeling now, doing well this early, the fear of giving back


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I should have taken action on my suspicion of it going to be a trend day, could have done much better  Unsure if there are any patterns leading up in the prior days that hint we might be having a trend day soon.)




Do you ever notice that these big days seem to occur after we have a range bound, choppy and low volatility day or days? The market is going from range bound to trend or as i like to think, balanced to imbalanced. You want a leading indicator? A balanced market will eventually trend, why? Half of all the contracts are positioned the wrong way, they've got to cover sooner or later. Trend days are mostly driven by either shorts covering, or long liquidation. Figure out when this is happening and where they'll need to cover and you'll be anticipating trend days much better than beforee


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Do you ever notice that these big days seem to occur after we have a range bound, choppy and low volatility day or days? The market is going from range bound to trend or as i like to think, balanced to imbalanced. You want a leading indicator? A balanced market will eventually trend, why? Half of all the contracts are positioned the wrong way, they've got to cover sooner or later. Trend days are mostly driven by either shorts covering, or long liquidation. Figure out when this is happening and where they'll need to cover and you'll be anticipating trend days much better than beforee




Yeah I have noticed a bit of that, trend, range, trend, range. The "figure out when this is happening" part is the tricky bit  Just got to expect it to take off one of these days if we've had a few range days. 

Argh was long @ 9505, need more conviction to hold through on my ideas for the whole day


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I have noticed a bit of that, trend, range, trend, range. The "figure out when this is happening" part is the tricky bit  Just got to expect it to take off one of these days if we've had a few range days.
> 
> Argh was long @ 9505, need more conviction to hold through on my ideas for the whole day




Sorry, meant to show the smaller brackets..


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> +140 ticks on DAX.
> 6 trades.
> 
> Getting a nervous feeling now, doing well this early, the fear of giving back




Howdy Sam  .... Like where you are heading at the moment  .... also slightly jealous .... happy for you though

Without giving away proprietary secrets  ........ and given your recent turn around of successful trades ...

Have you changed any simple things such as  .... 

1) Width of initial Stop loss (tighter or looser)

2) Time of day you are taking trades

3) Technical analysis adjustments ie Indicators which might actually help

Anything you might attribute your better trading to??

Cheers M8 and well done!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Howdy Sam  .... Like where you are heading at the moment  .... also slightly jealous .... happy for you though
> 
> Without giving away proprietary secrets  ........ and given your recent turn around of successful trades ...
> 
> Have you changed any simple things such as  ....
> 
> 1) Width of initial Stop loss (tighter or looser)
> 
> 2) Time of day you are taking trades
> 
> 3) Technical analysis adjustments ie Indicators which might actually help
> 
> Anything you might attribute your better trading to??
> 
> Cheers M8 and well done!




Thanks for the encouragement barney  better trading would be due to broader market view, finding some of my own patterns, correlated markets, patience, stopped trying to emulate other traders, and working on knowing what to expect, knowing that I can trade and just relaxing(not buzzing over every direction change, flipping and cancelling and carrying on), taking the right approach and having a go. 

But there's always something to work on. 

Just got out of my last trade @ 9699, going to stop here and finish on a high, just glad I managed to hold for longer than 2 bars  




Total for today: +308 ticks on DAX.

Off to bed soon.


----------



## xr06t

Very nice going.

Thanks for posting the charts and commentary also everyone.


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Thanks for the encouragement barney  better trading would be due to broader market view, finding some of my own patterns, correlated markets, patience, stopped trying to emulate other traders, and working on knowing what to expect, knowing that I can trade and just relaxing(not buzzing over every direction change, flipping and cancelling and carrying on), taking the right approach and having a go.




Good stuff ..... 




ThingyMajiggy said:


> Total for today: +308 ticks on DAX.




Seriously good stuff ...... That last trade was a ripper!


----------



## cynic

My trusty ole cfd provider managed to miss filling my short order for 9711 by a fraction of a point!!! 

Otherwise, not a bad night for trading the demonic DAX.


----------



## VSntchr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Total for today: +308 ticks on DAX.
> Off to bed soon.



308 ticks...from memory when I was looking at the dax 12 months ago it was something like $37 bucks a tick! I'm guessing that sleep will be a well enjoyed one 



cynic said:


> My trusty ole cfd provider managed to miss filling my short order for 9711 by a fraction of a point!!!



Maybe should have had your order at 9710


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> My trusty ole cfd provider managed to miss filling my short order for 9711 by a fraction of a point!!!
> 
> Otherwise, not a bad night for trading the demonic DAX.




Always the brokers fault hey? 



VSntchr said:


> 308 ticks...from memory when I was looking at the dax 12 months ago it was something like $37 bucks a tick! I'm guessing that sleep will be a well enjoyed one



No a tick is the minimum move. A point is a single whole number. So on the DAX a tick is half a point which is 12.5 EURO.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> No a tick is the minimum move. A point is a single whole number. So on the DAX a tick is half a point which is 12.5 EURO.




3800 Eur is a decent months salary. Take the rest of the week off if it was a live account Sam, and well done if it was sim regardless.

I don't trade the DAX often anymore but when i do its usually a momentum play...i had one yesterday on the Dax and one this morning on the SPI, both live trades.

It seems only during times of good volatility is there much follow through to support these plays....

Generally i like to trade mean reversion, but i have one momentum play...For a long, basically i look for the market to have cleared a key level with a certain level above in mind for a target, then i trade the break higher if the book is really well bid. Because the Dax is so thin and fast, for me to only risk 600 Eur or so, i only trade 1 contract. So this either gives me two cracks at it or a wider stop (i don't use physical stops, just a mental stop zone). I just look to hang on until the momentum in the book slows down or gets swamped. I keep a tight finger on the trigger on the offer side...I'll try and get out at break even if there is no follow through.

I find this works better for shorts in that the targets are hit quicker, almost like air pockets where there is nothing in the book.

I find these setups occurring after a period of quiet choppy action or consolidation. I always assumed it was shorts covering or longs liquidating.


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> 3800 Eur is a decent months salary. Take the rest of the week off if it was a live account Sam, and well done if it was sim regardless.




No don't take time off! Double your size and keep going

well done


----------



## cynic

VSntchr said:


> ...
> 
> Maybe should have had your order at 9710




Based upon my years of experience trading OTC CFD products I sincerely doubt that having my order a point lower would've changed anything other than the Provider's quoted price.


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> 3800 Eur is a decent months salary. Take the rest of the week off if it was a live account Sam, and well done if it was sim regardless.




Real addicts/traders don't do this!



skyQuake said:


> No don't take time off! Double your size and keep going




They do this.

Sometimes you are in a confident zone and you just react quicker and more determined than usual. You need to milk it for all you know it won't come back for another 4 weeks.

BTW, Sam, is it real or sim?? (Well done either way).


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Real addicts/traders don't do this!
> .




You 'real' traders are a serious bunch...'take the rest of the week off" was an expression, like 'great job, pat yourself on the back'...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> You 'real' traders are a serious bunch...'take the rest of the week off" was an expression, *like 'great job, pat yourself on the back'...*




Really?!

I had this old boss who get employees to self pat their own back in front of everyone.

I couldn't tell whether he was trying to praise or humiliate people.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Really?!
> 
> I had this old boss who get employees to self pat their own back in front of everyone.
> 
> I couldn't tell whether he was trying to praise or humiliate people.




oh my....

Sam, really good to see ya back trying again. I'll leave it at that.


----------



## CanOz

Here's that leading Indicator again Sam, a choppy range bound day....volatility is on the way


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+103 ticks on DAX. 

Phew need a breather tonight, might trade a bit more later. 

Not happy with today's trading despite being up, crappy all over the place trades 

Off to eat some dead cow with some dead pig wrapped around it


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone noticed the nasty sell bot that is doing these push downs. Stuffs the levels behind nesting orders on the second best and above offers. Then jumps down 1 with icebergs and drops the offer if anyone jumps in front.
 f'n nasty........ unless you are with it!!


----------



## CanOz

Regarding Range days...

This is a custom indicator that i had coded for me, i call it TPO momentum.

Each dot represents the 'most agreed to price' as defines by auction market theory, market profile. On the histogram, you can see the difference between each dot plotted. When difference between them is the least for the longest, is typically when you have the range days. In other words, the market is trapping participants, then they hits the exits...


----------



## Trembling Hand

And again!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone noticed the nasty sell bot that is doing these push downs. Stuffs the levels behind nesting orders on the second best and above offers. Then jumps down 1 with icebergs and drops the offer if anyone jumps in front.
> f'n nasty........ unless you are with it!!
> 
> View attachment 64438




Yeah saw that bugger earlier! Hadn't seen that one before, nasty indeed.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Regarding Range days...
> 
> This is a custom indicator that i had coded for me, i call it TPO momentum.
> 
> Each dot represents the 'most agreed to price' as defines by auction market theory, market profile. On the histogram, you can see the difference between each dot plotted. When difference between them is the least for the longest, is typically when you have the range days. In other words, the market is trapping participants, then they hits the exits...




It looks like it's just a dot on the close of each bar? So the histogram would be plotting the differences between the closes?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> It looks like it's just a dot on the close of each bar? So the histogram would be plotting the differences between the closes?




No, quite often that point is near the close, the dots are scaled quite large...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> No, quite often that point is near the close, the dots are scaled quite large...




Ah ok cool, looks interesting! Thanks for sharing


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sam I have been playing around with the 'other' Euro indices this week just for a bit of a look. I gotta say you would be better off playing with them. The correlation to the DAX is just about 1 and they are much smaller. So you are going to get the same setups and actually be able to trade them with a reasonable size account and daily stop.

I have not really looked at the CAC before but its a beauty. @ 5 EUR a tick (10 EUR a point) and an ATR at just under 1/2 the size of the DAX its much more realistic proposition to be trading. You would be looking at a generous daily stops around 250-300 rather than a tight DAX stop of 1000-1500. 

The chance of you building up $$s to trade the DAX will be 3-4 times longer than the CAC or EURO STOXX. 




CAC are monthly contracts.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Sam I have been playing around with the 'other' Euro indices this week just for a bit of a look. I gotta say you would be better off playing with them. The correlation to the DAX is just about 1 and they are much smaller. So you are going to get the same setups and actually be able to trade them with a reasonable size account and daily stop.
> 
> I have not really looked at the CAC before but its a beauty. @ 5 EUR a tick (10 EUR a point) and an ATR at just under 1/2 the size of the DAX its much more realistic proposition to be trading. You would be looking at a generous daily stops around 250-300 rather than a tight DAX stop of 1000-1500.
> 
> The chance of you building up $$s to trade the DAX will be 3-4 times longer than the CAC or EURO STOXX.
> 
> View attachment 64446
> 
> 
> CAC are monthly contracts.




Yeah good thought, have never looked at the CAC but have wondered what it was like, will look into it 

"For a bit of a look"? Or is Risk giving you a hard time to switch to something else to minimize on the heart failures they're having watching you trade it?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Weekly summary: 

+655 ticks on DAX. 
45 trades. 
Win rate 76%
Average winners > average losers
Biggest winner > biggest loser. 

Was busy Friday so didn't trade. 

I think I went okay, but considering how much was available I definitely missed out on some, there was definitely at least 2 big winners I missed out on and had some silly moments, dug some small holes when I lost a little patience and jumped in ahead of it screaming for me to, or trying to anticipate a pattern that didn't actually eventuate. 

But on the flip side I had some really great trades, good entries and held for most of a move. I need to continue working on the patience, go easy on the trigger and although I did have a couple of good ones where I held on, I feel I need to do this more, have enough guts to follow through with my broader ideas for how the day might play out.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Weekly summary:
> 
> +655 ticks on DAX.
> 45 trades.
> Win rate 76%
> Average winners > average losers
> Biggest winner > biggest loser.
> 
> Was busy Friday so didn't trade.
> 
> I think I went okay, but considering how much was available I definitely missed out on some, there was definitely at least 2 big winners I missed out on and had some silly moments, dug some small holes when I lost a little patience and jumped in ahead of it screaming for me to, or trying to anticipate a pattern that didn't actually eventuate.
> 
> But on the flip side I had some really great trades, good entries and held for most of a move. I need to continue working on the patience, go easy on the trigger and although I did have a couple of good ones where I held on, I feel I need to do this more, have enough guts to follow through with my broader ideas for how the day might play out.




Well done Sam, that's a stellar result. 8100+ Euro's. I've not had a month like that, let alone a week.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Thing, is that approx AU $13000 profit in a week?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Well done Sam, that's a stellar result. 8100+ Euro's. I've not had a month like that, let alone a week.




Thanks mate  



Gringotts Bank said:


> Thing, is that approx AU $13000 profit in a week?




Yeah around that. 

Forgot to mention in my weekly summary that I traded with a 1 lot.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I wouldn't mind having a look.

Can anyone whack up file of DAX EOD data, as a continuous contract please?  (or link to said same)


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Thanks mate
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah around that.
> 
> Forgot to mention in my weekly summary that I traded with a 1 lot.




I'm guessing you're not trading with a 50 k account from previous discussions, so that return is likely 50-100% on your real account or a different % on your sim account.....


----------



## skc

Gringotts Bank said:


> I wouldn't mind having a look.
> 
> Can anyone whack up file of DAX EOD data, as a continuous contract please?  (or link to said same)




Wouldn't mind having a look? Why? Because someone made $13k in a week on it?

Every market has someone making $13k on it in a week. From penny stocks to large cap, from spot gold to orange juice futures, from fine wine to bitcoins... hardly seems like a reason to jump in?


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Weekly summary:
> 
> +655 ticks on DAX.
> 45 trades.
> Win rate 76%
> Average winners > average losers
> Biggest winner > biggest loser.




Brilliant stuff Sam. Whatever edge/edges you have discovered it looks potentially life changing to me


----------



## Gringotts Bank

skc said:


> Wouldn't mind having a look? Why? Because someone made $13k in a week on it?
> 
> Every market has someone making $13k on it in a week. From penny stocks to large cap, from spot gold to orange juice futures, from fine wine to bitcoins... hardly seems like a reason to jump in?




My thinking was that I'd watch what Thingo is doing and try to create rules and systematize it/backtest it.  First using daily data.  Then if that worked, intraday.  

I'd try the same with anyone making big money and posting their trades online.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> My thinking was that I'd watch what Thingo is doing and try to create rules and systematize it/backtest it.  First using daily data.  Then if that worked, intraday.
> 
> I'd try the same with anyone making big money and posting their trades online.




I'm not posting my trades online, just my summary after each day/week.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+106 ticks on DAX. 
3 trades, all winners. 

Going to cut it short tonight so that will be all for today


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

+219 ticks on DAX. 
7 trades, 1 loser.

Not trading so well tonight, having brain farts all the time. May do more later, will see how time goes, exciting few days on the markets though lately!


----------



## Modest

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Weekly summary:
> 
> +655 ticks on DAX.
> 45 trades.
> Win rate 76%
> Average winners > average losers
> Biggest winner > biggest loser.






ThingyMajiggy said:


> +106 ticks on DAX.
> 3 trades, all winners.
> 
> Going to cut it short tonight so that will be all for today






ThingyMajiggy said:


> +219 ticks on DAX.
> 7 trades, 1 loser.
> 
> Not trading so well tonight, having brain farts all the time. May do more later, will see how time goes, exciting few days on the markets though lately!





Have you decided on what your going to name your Hedge Fund yet?  

Nice work mate keep on chipping away!


----------



## skc

Modest said:


> Have you decided on what your going to name your Hedge Fund yet?
> 
> Nice work mate keep on chipping away!




http://www.hedgefundnamegenerator.com/


----------



## fiftyeight

Have to ask, if you are not posting trades what are you hoping to gain or give back?


----------



## Modest

skc said:


> http://www.hedgefundnamegenerator.com/




Hahaha no way did not expect this to be a real site!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

fiftyeight said:


> Have to ask, if you are not posting trades what are you hoping to gain or give back?




Mainly using it like a log/journal to keep track of my daily/weekly results and to jot down anything that I need work on etc. Doing it on a forum would also enable others to have some input too. 

I'm happy to stop posting though if it's annoying people, doesn't bother me


----------



## fiftyeight

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Mainly using it like a log/journal to keep track of my daily/weekly results and to jot down anything that I need work on etc. Doing it on a forum would also enable others to have some input too.
> 
> I'm happy to stop posting though if it's annoying people, doesn't bother me




I dont think anyone said it was annoying???


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

fiftyeight said:


> I dont think anyone said it was annoying???




Sorry I misunderstood your "If no trades, whats the point?" post as annoyance, my bad


----------



## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Sorry I misunderstood your "If no trades, whats the point?" post as annoyance, my bad




Well we wanna get something out of it!

Threads are for helping or being helped, right?

What about some charts like you did at the start.


----------



## VSntchr

Gringotts Bank said:


> Well we wanna get something out of it!
> 
> Threads are for helping or being helped, right?
> 
> What about some charts like you did at the start.




I think that he is using the thread he created as his EOD journal. Which is fine. People are going to ask questions from time to time, and he will respond...also he posts some of his own questions in some posts.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> Well we wanna get something out of it!
> 
> Threads are for helping or being helped, right?
> 
> What about some charts like you did at the start.




I am being helped by posting my summary on here. Mate you just came in here and suddenly want me to post my trades after I have an okay week so you can code it up and see if you can make some money out of it instead of doing your own research. How is you wanting to code up my trades helping anyone except you in any way? What would I, or anyone else get out of that? Can't even find DAX EOD data by yourself, come on! Seriously. 

This thread was never intended as a guide to trading, if you want to learn how to trade or want some help then see the likes of TH or one of tech's many super-helpful threads that he has done. This was never and will never be a "How to trade the DAX" thread, this was merely somewhere for me to keep a log/journal/record of my journey as I want to do this properly and wanted somewhere central like my own thread to post it all, rather than dancing around between other posts that weren't really the right place to post my stuff. 

I don't see myself as a good trader, no where near it in comparison to the likes of those already mentioned on this forum, so I really don't feel like one to hand out advice on trading, especially when they are around and freely helping others in many, many threads. That would be like me teaching a kid how to swing a golf club when Tiger Woods is standing there, I'm just going to go "Ask him!" 

VSntchr is on the money


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I see you don't want to help anyone else, that's fine.  Certain things should be kept close to the chest if they are highly profitable.

But how does it help you to post your summaries?  How is that different to saving it to your computer as a notepad or excel file?

Pull ya SOX up!!


----------



## VSntchr

Gringotts Bank said:


> I see you don't want to help anyone else, that's fine.  Certain things should be kept close to the chest if they are highly profitable.
> 
> But how does it help you to post your summaries?  How is that different to saving it to your computer as a notepad or excel file?
> 
> Pull ya SOX up!!



It's a forum, he is sharing his experiences. You don't have to read it?
It's obviously helping some people, even if it's just entertainment - the thread is regularly on my recent posts, meaning it's getting it's fair share of eye balls.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

VSntchr said:


> It's a forum, he is sharing his experiences. You don't have to read it?
> It's obviously helping some people, even if it's just entertainment - the thread is regularly on my recent posts, meaning it's getting it's fair share of eye balls.




Fair enough.  I'll do my own thing and not interfere.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> I see you don't want to help anyone else, that's fine.  Certain things should be kept close to the chest if they are highly profitable.
> 
> But how does it help you to post your summaries?  How is that different to saving it to your computer as a notepad or excel file?
> 
> Pull ya SOX up!!




It's not that I don't want to help anyone else, quite happy to. It's more I feel I'm not capable to because I don't feel fully sorted in my own trading yet, hence my advice of just seeking those that have been helping others for years in TH and tech. Plus I'd rather actually work on my trading and try to be the best I can be first, instead of taking the time to post each trade, reasons why, entries and exits etc for the silver platter you want me to hand it to you on.

It helps because it gives me another reason to keep pushing, would be fairly stupid to create a thread then not follow it up. Plus as I said before I can ask questions or others can offer advice on something I may have missed. Who knows maybe it might give others the urge to keep pushing too and do some hard work  

But if the thread keeps getting derailed as it is or if it's annoying people at all as I said earlier I'm happy to shut it down, doesn't really bother me either way. I guess it is a kinda pointless thread, just some added incentive, not that I need it, but every bit helps.


----------



## Trembling Hand

But come on Thingy can you not just give me the EOD data? Don't you want to help me....... :arsch:


----------



## Lone Wolf

I’d like to put forward an idea – The simple fact that this thread exists and is regularly bumped is providing a benefit to others.

There may be long periods of little discussion. But sometimes an unusual event will occur, Sam or another will comment on it. Others will put in their 2 cents, discussion happens. Discussion that wouldn’t otherwise happen if Sam was keeping a private record. This thread has already generated valuable discussion, as I’m sure it will again if it continues.

My only comment to Sam would be to question if more information might help him in future when looking back? “+106 ticks on DAX. 3 trades, all winners.” doesn’t give you much info looking back.
- What type of day were you expecting?
- What type of day did we have?
- If you have multiple setups you look for, which ones did you take?
- Any missed opportunities?
- Any change in behaviour (I don’t usually look at correlated markets while trading DAX, but tonight I was looking at ….)

I think a while back Sam, you commented that you had a good night, but you made your profit going long in a market that trended down all night. That was an example of something that might mean something when you look back someday.

But the above is only a question, would it help? Maybe you already do this offline, maybe you don’t think it’ll help. You certainly have no obligation to share anything with us.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> But come on Thingy can you not just give me the EOD data? Don't you want to help me....... :arsch:




I did notice a little bit of a 'gimme gimme' vibe coming into my posts on this thread.  

The needy-greedy thing rearing up.  When I take that to the market, the market has its way with me.  Profit destoyer.

Let it be...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Lone Wolf said:


> I’d like to put forward an idea – The simple fact that this thread exists and is regularly bumped is providing a benefit to others.
> 
> There may be long periods of little discussion. But sometimes an unusual event will occur, Sam or another will comment on it. Others will put in their 2 cents, discussion happens. Discussion that wouldn’t otherwise happen if Sam was keeping a private record. This thread has already generated valuable discussion, as I’m sure it will again if it continues.
> 
> My only comment to Sam would be to question if more information might help him in future when looking back? “+106 ticks on DAX. 3 trades, all winners.” doesn’t give you much info looking back.
> - What type of day were you expecting?
> - What type of day did we have?
> - If you have multiple setups you look for, which ones did you take?
> - Any missed opportunities?
> - Any change in behaviour (I don’t usually look at correlated markets while trading DAX, but tonight I was looking at ….)
> 
> I think a while back Sam, you commented that you had a good night, but you made your profit going long in a market that trended down all night. That was an example of something that might mean something when you look back someday.
> 
> But the above is only a question, would it help? Maybe you already do this offline, maybe you don’t think it’ll help. You certainly have no obligation to share anything with us.




Yeah valid points, maybe I could post a bit more detail but then I'm not sure if it would help, something I have been working on is really trying to do things that actually help my trading, and the main thing that does that by FAR is actually just trading, not posting about it, not talking about it, not reading books about it, not googling for fancy indicators(or making my own), none of that. It's just simply having an idea, having a crack, if it's regular and seems to be working then great, milk it, rinse and repeat. 

Maybe in the future I can add more detail, that's if anyone's actually interested and reading anything in here, not exactly the most exciting thread, just using it for the reasons mentioned earlier.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> I did notice a little bit of a 'gimme gimme' vibe coming into my posts on this thread.
> 
> The needy-greedy thing rearing up.  When I take that to the market, the market has its way with me.  Profit destoyer.
> 
> Let it be...




Actually i found your post funny on many levels.

Give me something I should go and get myself.
I can make a system work on anything although I have no idea what it looks like.
I will make an EOD system then that will enable me to make an intraday system. 
If I had the data I would make a system but I haven't and that is what is stopping from a successful system (like they just grow on trees).

etc

Very amusing.


----------



## Lone Wolf

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah valid points, maybe I could post a bit more detail but then I'm not sure if it would help, something I have been working on is really trying to do things that actually help my trading, and the main thing that does that by FAR is actually just trading, not posting about it, not talking about it, not reading books about it, not googling for fancy indicators(or making my own), none of that. It's just simply having an idea, having a crack, if it's regular and seems to be working then great, milk it, rinse and repeat.
> 
> Maybe in the future I can add more detail, that's if anyone's actually interested and reading anything in here, not exactly the most exciting thread, just using it for the reasons mentioned earlier.




You have the right idea in that you should focus on what actually matters. Knowing what actually matters is another topic. If adding more detail won't help you then don't do it. Don't worry about what others are interested in. You started the thread, use it in the way that's most beneficial to you.


----------



## Stratanu

The DAX confirmed a strong closing last night confirming therefore also Fridays’ positive day reversal. I expect further strength toward the 10’000 level where we expect some good resistance!!
The indicators of the daily chart are now well positive as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further strength. In the hourly chart we have however overbought conditions and potential negative reversals. Nevertheless, while above the 200 hours line at 9758 and expect further strength for this index, move supported also by the confirmation yesterday of the S_H_S formation with an up sloping neck line, today found at 9823!!
I suggest waiting for a possible retest of the 9760 level to go long for a move toward 10’000!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Only traded 2 days last week for +266 ticks on DAX. Took the rest of the week off, unsure why, wasn't feeling in the mood, was focused on other things for a few days, I thought best not to trade when I'm feeling like that. 

+220 ticks for today. 2 trades. 

Do you prop guys actually increase size and go harder after big days or more lock it in and bugger off to the pub?  I guess it's different for each trader, seems like it helps sometimes to have short sweet days and do something else for a while, can sometimes make things clearer.


----------



## skc

This might impact the Dax tonight?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...llion-derivatives-20-times-greater-german-gdp


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> This might impact the Dax tonight?
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...llion-derivatives-20-times-greater-german-gdp




I doubt it....


----------



## VSntchr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Do you prop guys actually increase size and go harder after big days or more lock it in and bugger off to the pub?  I guess it's different for each trader, seems like it helps sometimes to have short sweet days and do something else for a while, can sometimes make things clearer.



Don't trade futures (or prop) but I do trade..so I can offer my input.
I definitely increase size and go harder when my confidence is up. I do the contrary when my results (and hence confidence) are down.
I liken the concept to surfing. If I have been landing every turn on a long wave, then as the wave goes on I am attempting bigger and bigger maneuvers. Whereas if I am surfing sh*t and bogging rail every turn, then I'll be happy to just land a few basic turns. 
With my own pairs trading, I just started back after a break by taking sizes that were 10% of my usual full size, but now that I have the equity curve trending up I have been getting closer to full size.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> I doubt it....




Sorry SKC, got distracted and hit post before i could finish my thought. The Dax could gap way down, as this news is out...but at the moment, the spread betters (CFDs) have only a .5% gap down on the open priced in, they're usually not that far off. Now i hope it gaps much lower, that could be an open drive opportunity.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> This might impact the Dax tonight?
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...llion-derivatives-20-times-greater-german-gdp






CanOz said:


> I doubt it....




Oops. Posted the wrong link

http://www.wsj.com/articles/deutsch...on-write-down-in-corporate-banking-1444249402



> Deutsche Bank AG warned it will take a â‚¬5.8 billion ($6.5 billion) charge on assets in its investment bank and retail- and private-banking operations for the third quarter and said it could cut its dividend this year.




AND

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...nk-preannounces-massive-loss-may-cut-dividend



> Amid numerous rumors that Deutsche Bank is among the corporations exposed to the VW fiasco, and to be clear there is no news to confirm that, DB has just kitchen-sinked it in a pre-announcement:
> •*DEUTSCHE BANK SEES 3Q NET LOSS EUR 6.2 BLN
> •*DEUTSCHE BANK TO RECOMMEND DIVIDEND CUT OR POSSIBLE ELIMINATION
> 
> Deutsche Bank stock is crashing down around 6% after-hours on the news.




News was out about 6 hours ago... so is it priced in with the Dax? You can still trade the OTC Dax with CFD at around yesterday's close...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Sorry SKC, got distracted and hit post before i could finish my thought. The Dax could gap way down, as this news is out...but at the moment, the spread betters (CFDs) have only a .5% gap down on the open priced in, they're usually not that far off. Now i hope it gaps much lower, that could be an open drive opportunity.






skc said:


> News was out about 6 hours ago... so is it priced in with the Dax? You can still trade the OTC Dax with CFD at around yesterday's close...




FWIW I am short some DAX CFDs. The CFD maker may or may not have got it right (my guess is they don't)... 

DB is some 5% of DAX and after market trade has it pointing down 6%... so that's 0.3% for the DAX as it is. But a news like this will move the whole market...all financials for a start. A 0.5% drop in the DAX is nothing.

it'd be a good reward:risk trade regardless.


----------



## CanOz

I got filled at 56....

Now to wait for cash to open and hopefully not get shaken out....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I got filled at 56....
> 
> Now to wait for cash to open and hopefully not get shaken out....




Long or short?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Long or short?




Lol.....you would be able to take me out wouldn't you, it's that thin!


----------



## CanOz

I wonder if this is reflective of a wider crowd....lol


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well that was fun.....


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Well that was fun.....




Took half profit before cash open. Then gave it all back with the remaining stop getting hit.

Then got chopped up nicely on 2 smaller attempts.

:bad:


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Took half profit before cash open. Then gave it all back with the remaining stop getting hit.
> 
> Then got chopped up nicely on 2 smaller attempts.
> 
> :bad:




Ha! I had three attempts at shorting after the cash open up push. First two I cut for not much better than scratch, last one stuck but got jumpy and spewed it to get out. As my luck would have it that was only a few point off the low. : arsy!!


----------



## CanOz

I got shaken, then entered, then stopped....then scratched another half dozen...


----------



## skyQuake

Just go long boys, Deutsche only opened down 2% (and is up 3% now!)


----------



## CanOz

Anyone trading the Dax today? I'm not sure if its my data or not, but it seems a little 'sticky' in the order flow....I've always assumed this was just the way the order flow looked on rotational type days, but not it has me thinking it my connectivity as i had a hard time getting connected today....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Probably just the US holiday trading. Do nothing, then blow one way, then do nothing then repeat....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Probably just the US holiday trading. Do nothing, then blow one way, then do nothing then repeat....




Yeah, ok fair enough. I'm only trading Tues, Wed, Thursdays now. Today was just a catch up day. I'm very pleased i'm not trading this mess. Although i'm also a little surprised it wasn't a little better bid, with the Easing news out of China.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Probably just the US holiday trading. Do nothing, then blow one way, then do nothing then repeat....




Yep. Their stockmarkets will be open but no bonds trading which probably makes it less appealing to the whales.

I'm still a little bit short after last week, and with the speed and size of this upswing, I've managed to haemorrhage all off the previous week's profits.
 In essence, it's managed to serve me a slice of heaven sandwiched between two slices of hell, all within the first month of this quarter.

Edit: First line is in relation to availability/unavailability of US stock/bond markets during their Columbus day holiday.


----------



## Stratanu

Trading View Today: The DAX confirmed again a weak closing after a few sessions of mixed closing. However, a daily closing tonight below 9935 could already confirm a s/t top suggesting a resumption of the decline.
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive showing however potential negative reversals. The indicators of the s/t charts turned instead below the line suggesting for the coming hours a possible test of the 200 hours line at 9780. This decline is corrective based on the hourly chart a little in contrast to the daily one.
The drop below 9939, now s/t resistance, confirmed a small S_H_S formation supporting a deeper correction suggesting even a 9750 undershooting.
I try a short position in case of a 9995 overshooting with a stop above 10’070!!


----------



## cynic

Stratanu said:


> ...
> I try a short position in case of a 9995 overshooting with a stop above 10’070!!




A 75 point stop on a DAX trade!!

You're a braver trader than I am! A most courageous trade indeed!

All the same, I do wish you the best of fortune with your trading endeavours (provided of course, that you're not on the opposite side of any of my trades).


----------



## Stratanu

Trading View Today: The DAX confirmed a further weak closing below the low of the previous session suggesting that a top could be in place for the DAX. After a possible correction we expect further weakness suggesting even a resumption of the decline!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive showing however potential negative reversals. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead still below the line supporting further weakness. Bullish divergences confirm the negative tone. While below 10’025 I favour a move toward the 200 hours line, now found at 9812.
I sold as expected the 9995 overshooting. Put a stop at 10’075!!


----------



## Stratanu

cynic said:


> A 75 point stop on a DAX trade!!




If sure of the level of entry, the 75 point stop is not so bad


----------



## Trembling Hand

Stratanu said:


> If sure of the level of entry, the 75 point stop is not so bad






Stratanu said:


> Trading View Today: The DAX confirmed a further weak closing below the low of the previous session suggesting that a top could be in place for the DAX. After a possible correction we expect further weakness suggesting even a resumption of the decline!
> The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive showing however potential negative reversals. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead still below the line supporting further weakness. Bullish divergences confirm the negative tone. While below 10’025 I favour a move toward the 200 hours line, now found at 9812.
> I sold as expected the 9995 overshooting. Put a stop at 10’075!!




Looks like your cut and paste weasel words are a day behind. You are talking about "confirmed a further weak closing" when the DAX has open up and ran straight through yesterdays high and only one push off your stop.


----------



## CanOz

Stratanu said:


> If sure of the level of entry, the 75 point stop is not so bad




hmmm, 75 x 25 Euro per point is 1950, call it 2k. If you're risking that on a trade you better have a 200k account, or at least a 100k account and its your star play.

Or get a CFD account.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> hmmm, 75 x 25 Euro per point is 1950, call it 2k. If you're risking that on a trade you better have a 200k account,




He hasn't got an account. He is just a feeder for affiliate broker commissions. As luck would have it its the same sort of thing that the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK announced today would be looking into.


----------



## marknz88

Thought this might be of interest to some of you - Eurex is releasing mini DAX futures on October 28. The question is, will traders jump on board and pump liquidity into them or will it go the way of other recent mini contracts where it is market maker vs. market maker.

"Eurex Exchange, the international derivatives market of Deutsche BÃ¶rse Group, will launch a new equity index contract on 28 October 2015. The Mini DAX Futures will be offered in addition to the existing DAX Futures (FDAX). Its key distinguishing feature is the significantly lower contract value, at only a fifth of the DAX Futures.

“The new Mini DAX Futures contract addresses together with the existing DAX Futures the needs of our users for more precise fine-tuning of their hedging positions,” said Mehtap Dinc, member of the Eurex Executive Board. “At the same time, it is also aimed at semi-professional investors who are primarily investing into OTC products like CFDs because of the large contract value of the DAX Futures.”

At the launch of the new product, Eurex Exchange will offer a designated market-making program in order to provide a liquid order book from the outset. A number of Eurex market participants have already expressed their interest in this program.

The Mini DAX Futures have a contract value of â‚¬5 per index point; and the minimum tick size is one index point. It will be settled in cash like all Eurex Exchange index derivatives. The product will be tradable from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. CET."

Eurex Press Release


----------



## CanOz

I wonder if the Dax mini will be taken up this year by brokers? Seems the SPI mini has not as of yet....


Dax Trend day today? Two NR days in a row...When Vol is over 2.2 we don't have many more than two days in a row before a wider ranging day....


----------



## CanOz

What a freak'in day

Missed the open with fatherhood duties, caught some of the bullish momentum and then proceeded to get my a** handed to me buying stupid breakout failures until thankfully, the market broke with the news and i got it all back save a few points....:burn:


----------



## subterfuge

Damn. 6 lost trades in a row on the dax so far today.
Thought it was looking like a trend down day.
I've lost over 8k on my last 400 trades 
I wish their was something better than TA and charts patterns etc
Every move seems to go against me.


----------



## shodd

subterfuge said:


> Damn. 6 lost trades in a row on the dax so far today.
> Thought it was looking like a trend down day.
> I've lost over 8k on my last 400 trades
> *I wish their was something better than TA and charts patterns etc*
> Every move seems to go against me.




I would recommend trying to learn reading ordeflow from a DOM - and start out by looking at a more liquid contract like FESX. You have more time to spot orderflow based setups in a thicker market. The DOM is only part of the picture though; you'll need context to go with it (event risk and intermarket relationships in particular).


----------



## Trembling Hand

subterfuge said:


> Damn. 6 lost trades in a row on the dax so far today.
> Thought it was looking like a trend down day.
> I've lost over 8k on my last 400 trades




We have all been there!! 

You trading live or sim?



subterfuge said:


> I wish their was something better than TA and charts patterns etc
> Every move seems to go against me.




I think there is,

Could you put up a chart with where the trades were taken. I find when I am having lots of stop outs in a row its comes down to two things,

1. I'm just plain wrong *and *too silly not to recognise it. 

2. I have a longer term idea but not patiently implementing it or trying to squeeze too much out of the idea instead of taking bites of profit from the idea. By that I mean instead of getting in 1 trade and thinking its going to run in a straight line for 200 ticks I should be taking 30-40 ticks closing out and then looking for another setup. This requires observation of the market context.


Its getting harder and harder to ride trends intraday and the ability to read the context or market state is what I find makes the difference between good trading periods and losing a heap of cash. Tradition TA and charts patterns haven't "worked" for a long time and are becoming less and less important. From my observation TA has never been what its about and those that are still hung up on it are either selling you a service/dream/lie that doesn't work or those that have bought into the service/dream/lie and bleeding money.


----------



## tech/a

Both are spot.
Particularly the T/A observation.

For me I want to be involved in fast moving markets.
All boats rise and fall on King Tides.

I generally have little idea (and an open bias) when I sit down on what is going to happen.
But it will happen quickly and decisively often in both directions in a short period of time.
I've been and gone in most cases in 1-2.5 hrs. If it doesn't(in an hr. or so) Ill go.
I don't *HAVE TO* trade.

Often my best position is no position.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> We have all been there!!
> 
> You trading live or sim?
> 
> 
> 
> I think there is,
> 
> Could you put up a chart with where the trades were taken. I find when I am having lots of stop outs in a row its comes down to two things,
> 
> 1. I'm just plain wrong *and *too silly not to recognise it.
> 
> 2. I have a longer term idea but not patiently implementing it or trying to squeeze too much out of the idea instead of taking bites of profit from the idea. By that I mean instead of getting in 1 trade and thinking its going to run in a straight line for 200 ticks I should be taking 30-40 ticks closing out and then looking for another setup. This requires observation of the market context.
> 
> 
> Its getting harder and harder to ride trends intraday and the ability to read the context or market state is what I find makes the difference between good trading periods and losing a heap of cash. Tradition TA and charts patterns haven't "worked" for a long time and are becoming less and less important. From my observation TA has never been what its about and those that are still hung up on it are either selling you a service/dream/lie that doesn't work or those that have bought into the service/dream/lie and bleeding money.




Great post TH,

This has been my issue the last two weeks. I've been in dozens of trades that have gone 10-20 ticks in my favor (6 last night alone), only to see them come back on me and stop me out. I'm trying to hit a home run instead of lots of singles (to butcher up an old analogy)....Recognizing that moves have or have no follow through is really important if your staple play needs follow through. If there is none at the time because vol is declining then you need to adjust the play. I ended up clawing back the losses last night to finish up on the day, but still have work to do to get last weeks losses back (not that i'm dwelling on that). 

The biggest learning outcome of the last two years has been for me that you can learn more by looking at your own trading than any book can ever teach you.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Both are spot.
> Particularly the T/A observation.
> 
> For me I want to be involved in fast moving markets.
> All boats rise and fall on King Tides.
> 
> I generally have little idea (and an open bias) when I sit down on what is going to happen.
> But it will happen quickly and decisively often in both directions in a short period of time.
> I've been and gone in most cases in 1-2.5 hrs. If it doesn't(in an hr. or so) Ill go.
> I don't *HAVE TO* trade.
> 
> Often my best position is no position.




I agree that with the Dax the first two hours is usually the best. The market has fewer choppy periods and tends to do the trending then. There is however an exception. The Dax, if its balanced, will tend to consolidate in choppy trade for a few hours sometimes into a large range and then either breakout of the range after the European lunch or during the open of the US session. 

Its also my observation that generally if the post lunch period is bullish, expect continuation into the US session.

Also, i watch the ES, the FTSE, the FESX and 6J for confluence, the Bund and Bobl as well from time to time. If these markets don't agree with my directional bias at the time of a trade i don't tend to pull the trigger.


----------



## tech/a

Can
I agree with what your saying.
But as I'm asleep I miss many trades
2-3 hrs. on days I think are going to be strong
suit me.


----------



## CanOz

Yup, understand, even worse now that daylight savings has ended in Europe. The pre-cash opens at 3 pm here now.

Might be moving day today!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yup, understand, even worse now that daylight savings has ended in Europe. The pre-cash opens at 3 pm here now.




And cash opens at 7 pm in Eastern Oz!!! Leaves a lot of time for me to fill in the day. Might have to get a day job just to keep me out of trouble....


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> And cash opens at 7 pm in Eastern Oz!!! Leaves a lot of time for me to fill in the day. Might have to get a day job just to keep me out of trouble....




I did wonder why you stopped trading the HSI. If I was making $$$ in both markets I know which hours I would rather trade.

Actually if I was making $$$ in both id trade both


----------



## Wysiwyg

fiftyeight said:


> I did wonder why you stopped trading the HSI. If I was making $$$ in both markets I know which hours I would rather trade.
> 
> Actually if I was making $$$ in both id trade both



Yeah, too easy.


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> I did wonder why you stopped trading the HSI. If I was making $$$ in both markets I know which hours I would rather trade.


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> View attachment 64813


----------



## subterfuge

Trembling Hand said:


> We have all been there!!
> 
> 
> 
> Could you put up a chart with where the trades were taken




Here.
I've been generally losing for the last 5 years. Full time!


----------



## Trembling Hand

subterfuge said:


> Here.
> I've been generally losing for the last 5 years. Full time!




Geez mate to me they look like terrible entries. So much so that that first one I could of been on the other side - buying to close out a short from the the Cash open bar 8 or so minutes earlier.

Your ideas for the day seem ok, that it was going to have pressure downwards but you have waited until its gone down. For intraday trading thats just way to late to get a favourable R:R for my thinking. Its in part why I hate the word 'confirmation' in trading and pattern set ups. To me it means you where right and didn't make any money on the idea and now you are left with a crappy R:R.

Is that your normal approach/set up? Wait for a bit of a move or break to put on a trade?


----------



## subterfuge

Trembling Hand said:


> Is that your normal approach/set up? Wait for a bit of a move or break to put on a trade?




My setups and approach tend to change based on the behaviour of the day.
The 1st trade was NOT a typical entry, although I took it as it looked like it had the potential to be a downtrend day to me, and on them sort of days, such breakout plays tend to work in my experience.
However, in hindisight I was wrong about the day type.

My approach is based on everything i've been 'taught' in various books, from 'apparently' successful traders online, and through my own experience. 

Here's today:


----------



## Valued

When you say previous resistance will become support, that can sometimes work, but the point you indicated that doesn't appear to be a previous resistance. If you look to the left at that price it seems the market shot through it, barely giving it a look, so in what world was that a resistance point?

You might do better if you stop drawing lines on your chart too, not sure. I don't know if they seem to be helping you since you're relying on lines you drew as some sort of objective signal of a trade. Trend lines can be made so they arn't biased/subjective but you need to define in advance what your trend line is in every case. Trader Vic does this well in his Methods of a Wall Street Master book. Most of the book is irrelevant to day trading, which is why day traders probably wouldn't buy it. It has a nice section though on drawing trend lines and even if you disagree with him, the part you can really take out of it is that he objectively defines in advance what the trend line is and how it is drawn in every case so that the trend line isn't biased. They say you should take one thing out of every trading book you read, and that was my one thing in his book, objectively defining trend lines. Most of the book I don't even remember except that.


----------



## subterfuge

Valued said:


> When you say previous resistance will become support, that can sometimes work, but the point you indicated that doesn't appear to be a previous resistance.



Was looking for this sort of thing: (pic attached)


A 'respected' member of another forum told me it what to look for, although I confess that in my experience of taking thousands of these trades, they're about 50/50, so will probably abandon that concept.

Can you show your chart of todays dax (or whatever you trade) with your entries, and include how you draw your trendlines?
thx


----------



## Valued

subterfuge said:


> Was looking for this sort of thing: (pic attached)
> 
> 
> A 'respected' member of another forum told me it what to look for, although I confess that in my experience of taking thousands of these trades, they're about 50/50, so will probably abandon that concept.
> 
> Can you show your chart of todays dax (or whatever you trade) with your entries, and include how you draw your trendlines?
> thx




I don't day trade though so that won't be helpful for you. My holding time is usually a minimum of a few days, often a few weeks and sometimes a few months. However, the basics like support/resistance and trendlines work on all time frames which is why I thought I could point you in the right direction. If I was day trading I wouldn't draw trend lines, I don't think they would be that useful.

50/50 is the dream though. If you have a 50% win rate and arn't making money the issue is your risk reward ratios.


----------



## Trembling Hand

subterfuge said:


> My setups and approach tend to change based on the behaviour of the day.




Yep so do mine. If not from hour to hour. :



subterfuge said:


> My approach is based on everything i've been 'taught' in various books, from 'apparently' successful traders online, and through my own experience.
> 
> Here's today:




From last night it seems you're were looking at doing the right things around the right times but your timing is off - a lot. Or your stops are too tight for such a big contract, with 5-8 points stops you have to absolutely nail your entries. Why don't you drop down to the FESX? It is pretty much locked in with the moves of the DAX but its a much smaller contract per tick and has about 1/3 the ATR so you will be able to give your ideas much more room to play out and prove the trade right or wrong. You could even trade 2 contracts and take one off early and let the other play out. Pretty hard trading just 1 contract. Also reducing your dollar risk per trade on a smaller contract will give you time to build some confidence.


----------



## CanOz

Dax relief on the way...


----------



## subterfuge

SHORT 10788
STOP AT 10804

EDIT: Here's the chart


----------



## Trembling Hand

subterfuge said:


> SHORT 10788
> STOP AT 10804
> 
> EDIT: Here's the chart




Do you use volume? Might help with finding turning points?


----------



## subterfuge

Trembling Hand said:


> Do you use volume? Might help with finding turning points?




I've had volume off and on my charts for the last 5 years. Sometimes I think i've found something useful (volume spikes to signal a turn for example), but it never provides an edge for me with a large sample of trades under manual backtesting.
Could be that I don't know what i'm supposed to be looking at regarding volume....


----------



## subterfuge

subterfuge said:


> SHORT 10788
> STOP AT 10804
> 
> EDIT: Here's the chart




out breakeven


----------



## subterfuge

L 10797 stop at 87


----------



## subterfuge

subterfuge said:


> L 10797 stop at 87




-10


----------



## subterfuge

L 10780 stop 10765
edit: stopped -15


----------



## CanOz

Well i had my first trade on the mini Dax, a successful 19 points...executed with IB's Dom though. Can't get the symbol into NT yet, there is no difference in the symbol, just the multiplier....anyone got a clue here...?


----------



## Market Sniper

CanOz said:


> Well i had my first trade on the mini Dax, a successful 19 points...executed with IB's Dom though. Can't get the symbol into NT yet, there is no difference in the symbol, just the multiplier....anyone got a clue here...?




here you go - 

http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=79693

although i did everything required, I couldnt get it to download any data into nt as yet.

only had one go at it, will look at it again later.

cheers ms

edit - so worked it out i believe - when you are in misc tab and entering in symbol map for IB, you need to put in DAX|||5.

the symbol map for big dax in nt for ib is DAX|||25.

just tried as above with mini dax and i know have data.


----------



## Market Sniper

volume still looks very thin 34k on big dax compared to 3400 approx on mini.

how was it getting into a postion etc??


----------



## CanOz

Market Sniper said:


> here you go -
> 
> http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=79693
> 
> although i did everything required, I couldnt get it to download any data into nt as yet.
> 
> only had one go at it, will look at it again later.
> 
> cheers ms
> 
> edit - so worked it out i believe - when you are in misc tab and entering in symbol map for IB, you need to put in DAX|||5.
> 
> the symbol map for big dax in nt for ib is DAX|||25.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> just tried as above with mini dax and i know have data.






Wow, this is great, thanks MS.

My first fill had one tick slippage on a break higher, not bad considering i get at least 2 ticks normally ifs it volatile....


----------



## CanOz

Market Sniper said:


> here you go -
> 
> http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=79693
> 
> although i did everything required, I couldnt get it to download any data into nt as yet.
> 
> only had one go at it, will look at it again later.
> 
> cheers ms
> 
> edit - so worked it out i believe - when you are in misc tab and entering in symbol map for IB, you need to put in DAX|||5.
> 
> the symbol map for big dax in nt for ib is DAX|||25.
> 
> just tried as above with mini dax and i know have data.




Did you actually change your instrument for the big Dax as well? I changed that and can't get data for it now...


----------



## CanOz

Can anyone show me exactly what the instrument looks like on their instrument manager for NT with the IB symbol? 

Today my Dom that was set on FDXM got me into more than one full size Dax trade. I can't figure out what went wrong but needless to say i blew out my risk. Totally p***ed .... This instrument must not be setup or ninjatrader is not handling it correctly.


----------



## Chris.M

CanOz said:


> Can anyone show me exactly what the instrument looks like on their instrument manager for NT with the IB symbol?
> 
> Today my Dom that was set on FDXM got me into more than one full size Dax trade. I can't figure out what went wrong but needless to say i blew out my risk. Totally p***ed .... This instrument must not be setup or ninjatrader is not handling it correctly.




Here's how I setup NT8 CanOz:


----------



## CanOz

Chris.M said:


> Here's how I setup NT8 CanOz:
> 
> View attachment 64895




Thats great Chris, thanks. What does the big Dax setup look like now?


----------



## Chris.M

CanOz said:


> Thats great Chris, thanks. What does the big Dax setup look like now?




Basically I left everything the same except for the Interactive Brokers symbol;  l I changed it too   DAX|||25
The rest I'll leave to be updated in the next software update.


----------



## CanOz

Nah this is seriously up the sh*tter....


----------



## Market Sniper

CanOz said:


> Nah this is seriously up the sh*tter....




Did you get this thing going??

I have not had another look at it since the other night.


----------



## CanOz

Market Sniper said:


> Did you get this thing going??
> 
> I have not had another look at it since the other night.




Nah, not yet, i've got some help from a member here and the ninja crew....they've looked at log and trace and can't figure it out yet. NT has asked for my db...


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> Nah, not yet, i've got some help from a member here and the ninja crew....they've looked at log and trace and can't figure it out yet. NT has asked for my db...




There's always ... QTrader.





















(Joking)


----------



## CanOz

My NT instrument is clearly not right, these are my trades on the big dax today (sim) and you can clearly see i had the thing on a leash (78 points), yet my P/L has not a single winning trade....

I successfully traded the mini on my IB TWS but not connected to NT. I wish it has been as successful as my sim trades on the big dax....not near so (34 points net).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Quiet out there....


----------



## notting

Ha Ha, great snap, but you know they make hearing aids that are a little easier to get around with these days.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Quiet out there....
> 
> View attachment 64932




NFP should hopefully fix that within the next few hours.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ya gotta be impressed with the boyz. When they wanna move something they just do. Lovely offer stuffing all the way down hey.....


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Ya gotta be impressed with the boyz. When they wanna move something they just do. Lovely offer stuffing all the way down hey.....




Yeah, really phenomenal....lol....and now for the opposite reaction....


----------



## CanOz

Regarding the FDXM - the new Dax mini and Ninjatrader/IB

Basically there is a bug and the team are working on it, however i have been told by their support that the solution will only be implemented in NT8, not 7. This is disappointing as i still use NT7, at least until Rancho and Jigsaw are fully compatible with NT8 anyway....or i get my butt moved and start using TT!

NT forum


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Thought I'd update here what's been happening, trading the DAX via CFDs through CMC markets, it's actually a pretty neat setup and really cheap to trade pretty much anything so it'll do for now, one massive flaw is that because their "platform" is web-based, you can't have multiple screens with charts everywhere, I have found a way around it at least for 2 screens because you get a demo account with your live account so I'm logged into both in two different windows and having more charts up that way, at least so I can keep an eye on indices that line up with the dax etc. 

So I have over quadrupled my account now, which has then enabled me to trade fully relaxed, boy it makes a difference when I'm trading with money that I'm not fussed about losing. So things are going well, some of the profits have gone towards a couple of Dell 24" monitors, which are great(super rewarding getting things with the profits you make from trading!), as well as my two 22" monitors, next will be a 4 monitor stand so I can have them all in front of me, Matrix/Swordfish style  

I haven't been trading every night at all, I've maybe done a total of a week and a half's worth of trading time in the last couple months, been pretty flat out with my day job and sometimes am a bit knackered after getting home(what is it, Christmas time or something?!), plus I have just been waiting until it's super obvious to me before I get in a trade, which has helped too. 

So the plan is coming together, will probably go back to futures at some point, but things are plodding along nicely for now, tell you what it's hard to stay motivated at my day job though when I make a fortnight's wages the night before! But I guess that's a pretty good problem to have  

Just happy to be having some consistency and much more relaxed about it all now and getting some confidence, thought I'd post this update in case people thought it all fizzled out and I was floating up **** creek or something, things are good!  

Hope you're all trading well! 

Over & out!


----------



## CanOz

Sam, really good hear. You might want to consider these guys for funding later on www.mescapitalgroup.com

I'm working my way through a trial with them now, if i pass they'll fund me, so they say. Although at the moment i have to trade CME products, they say i can trade my markets later. They're very hands off, unlike TopStepTrader

I'm only trading the 6A and the 6J, for now.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Sam, really good hear. You might want to consider these guys for funding later on www.mescapitalgroup.com
> 
> I'm working my way through a trial with them now, if i pass they'll fund me, so they say. Although at the moment i have to trade CME products, they say i can trade my markets later. They're very hands off, unlike TopStepTrader
> 
> I'm only trading the 6A and the 6J, for now.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Interesting, never heard of them. Will check it out, thanks for the heads up


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

I have decided I will post more in here again. I haven't traded for a while and when I did I was trading with CFDs, but the goal is futures trading. I haven't traded for a few months now as I have been away on holiday, have broken my wrist(which halted the saving/trading) so it's taken a bit of a back seat, I was also putting some time into learning programming languages(Python, Javascript, C++ etc). 

I have decided I am going to try and be as honest as I can with myself and my trading and try and find my way properly, not copy someone else or try to incorporate someone else's system, but do what feels good and right for me. 

To me, I have always thought to myself that order flow does indeed make the most sense, I tend to think if I can see every order going through the market, surely there are patterns and games there that I can see if I just spend the time watching to try and pick up on these things. Some other soft spots I have towards what makes sense, I tend to like the idea of deviation trading and mean-reversion style trading. 

I once made an indicator on CQG when I was using that platform that would draw lines every X ticks apart above(of the users choosing) at the open that would be the daily standard deviation, hourly deviation, weekly deviation etc.(I would have multiple plots of this indicator) that I would work out in excel, so get the daily data of the instrument, get the daily ranges, avg range, std dev and use that figure as the distance apart to automatically plot the lines. My thinking, probably wrong, is that we know things usually don't(or rare) have days that are outliers, like 3 or 4 standard deviations, so I thought I'd represent this as lines from each day's open and get a feel for how many standard deviations we have/haven't gone today. I have since adapted this to Ninjatrader just to see how it looks and how well the lines do, like so, still very much a work in progress and just seeing how they go, not really making a strategy or method to trade with, just curiosity at this point, this is today's session so far, so these were drawn on the open of each session this week, so 2 days, they're just spanning over into each others session(something I'm working on): 





Other than that I've been playing around with watching the sessions back at 8x speed using BookMap and nothing else, just to see what I can see, have tweaked a few settings and put in trailing stops which you can see here which is a 10 tick stop initially then trails it as the trade goes in favour, although the result is good(+2762 eur up the top) it's kind of hard to explain what exactly I was doing, which feels weird to be honest, it feels I should be more systematic in my approach, but here I am just trading by feel and I guess getting in on pullbacks or where liquidity was, but certainly no rules like when this line crosses that line type stuff at all, another thing that bugs me is that doing replay stuff is a bit skewed, as you already know in the back of your head how the day is going to pan out, so its easy to be trading for how the day pans out rather than actually looking for good entries/legit things to get into trades for, which is something I need to work on. But this is what that looks like anyway, little blue marks are entry, pink line is trailing stop automatically moving up for me: 




Whether any of this will morph into something worthwhile is yet to be seen, as I mentioned before this is all just my own way of trying to find something that works for me, consistently, and to learn and watch how my market moves. 

I also want to learn to be much much better at managing trades, have been trying to find stuff about taking completely random entries and still making it work via risk management. Seems to be that the better you are at managing trades and risk, the higher the chance that you will be a profitable trader, choosing what to focus on(entries vs exits) etc. I need help in this area, all areas of the above actually  but hopefully I can figure some of it out that suits me. 

I have also been jotting down things on a notepad that I'm trying, keeping track of at least what I'm trying so I can then focus more on things that show a little bit of promise, rather than swapping and changing between things all the time.

Excuse the enormous post


----------



## CanOz

Bookmap and auction Vista are the future here and now in my view, it's like shining a torch on the thief in the room. It's very effective for me on fast markets and I wonder what my stats would have looked like if I started using it sooner! Using on the HSI now and it works OK with IBs data.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Bookmap and auction Vista are the future here and now in my view, it's like shining a torch on the thief in the room. It's very effective for me on fast markets and I wonder what my stats would have looked like if I started using it sooner! Using on the HSI now and it works OK with IBs data.




Yeah I've had BookMap for a while, pretty impressive stuff, very often updated too, has come a long way since it first started with great features being added. It's definitely an interesting viewpoint to look at the order flow, not sure if it's a bit of a looks more helpful than it actually is thing yet though. Time will tell  But it has fantastic replay abilties and a fantastic way of viewing the order flow that's for sure.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Alright, so I've done more on my SamLines  got it looking more how I want it now, much better. So here is what they look like, so you have the blue lines above, red lines below, all the lines are automatically drawn on the open so I'm not putting them in after the fact or anything. So I've zoomed right out looking at the last 21 days or so I can get an idea of what might be happening, and can see that around 90% of the days move one standard deviation away from its opening price, I've looked back and found that days when it doesn't touch either one stdev up or one stdev down, it seems to do it two days in a row, which is weird, but here is the zoomed out look: 




You're probably wondering what the green and pink lines are, so I've also calculated the standard deviation of the ranges based on hourly data as well, which is what the green and pink version is, so a more short term zoomed in effect for minute data etc. So I've gone through a just quickly picked a few days that give examples. 

First one is last night's session:




Next one is a day where it didn't reach one daily standard deviation up or down, so just bounced around between the hourly stdev: 




And the last one is a day where it hit both, one down then bang straight up to one up, there was also a day where it went almost 2 up then smashed down to 3 down  but obviously that's rare, that was like a 600 point move, this one is just touching both first levels(first red and first blue in same session): 




So it's interesting to look at if nothing else  I know there's a fair few lines going on and it might be a bit of having that many lines so of course it's going to look like its bouncing off some of them I guess, but still they seem to point out areas that something at least happens, or it pauses, or turns completely. I would like to test somehow to see percentage chance of hitting the 2nd levels, or if there might be any patterns as far as if we hit level 2 one day, is it likely to hit the opposite first level the next day or something, you get my drift, but not quite sure how to go about that just yet. 

Have got another thing to post as well, just a little data export indicator that I whacked up quick and nasty, but will do another post otherwise it will be too many images/attachments I think.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Another thing that was bugging me was trying to get hourly data, NT's export feature is either daily, minute or tick which wasn't what I was after. So I just made my own very simple nasty "indicator" that does the trick. So I'll attach that here in case anyone else might like to use it or extracting data. So it works by just importing the ninjascript, displaying the output window in NT by going to Tools >Output window like so: 




So that's just a normal 60 minute chart, nothing else on it, it doesn't matter if you did have indicators all over it or whatever, would still work. Next to it is NTs output window. So then you just add the indicator on the chart and it will fill the output window with Time, Open, High, Low, Close data, like so: 




Then you can just right click in the output window, choose Save As, then open it up in Excel on which you will get this window where you choose delimited: 




Then you select "comma" as the delimiter, which will separate the data into columns, then next and finish and tadaaaa  like so:




Then it looks like this in excel:




So you can export any data you like, 1min, 5min, hourly etc. Just load up how much history you want in your chart settings and run this "indicator" with the output window open so you can then save it and open in Excel


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Annnd now to attach the actual indicator  Run out of attachments again I think. It's basically just a Print output statement with the TOHLC details, nothing fancy, but it does the job easily. 

File > Utilities > Import Ninjascript for those that don't know how.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Off to a good start, thingylines being nice to me so far + gap close, plus I'm kind of expecting today to be a little bit of a quieter retrace day after two fairly strong days but we shall see, now it's time to panic and give it all back


----------



## Modest

Nice trade!


----------



## CanOz

Great work with the std dev bands Sam. This has the makings of a statistical edge if you can find out what the distribution of results would look like over a meaningful sample.

Staying tuned!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Great work with the std dev bands Sam. This has the makings of a statistical edge if you can find out what the distribution of results would look like over a meaningful sample.
> 
> Staying tuned!





Distribution of what results? If it lies according to the std dev rule of thumb? Like 95% of the time between 2 standard deviations etc. or if everyday touches a first layer? It seems to be giving me good expectations anyway, helping in that department, helping me plan how the day might play out  

Thanks Mod and Can  

Did alright last night, +120 ticks. Night played out pretty much spot on with my expectations which was nice, an off day after two strong days up to touch the first lower band, bit of a retrace day. Probably could have done much better, but got that first trade from the high of day which I posted last night, then a couple more later from the lows but would have been nicer to get all the down move, but got a nice chunk to the gap close which was a safe call, got to have the gonads to hold through on my expectations though, but still happy with that. I'm off for the weekend now so won't get to watch tonight, have a good one all


----------



## CanOz

> Distribution of what results?




Well if you could actually determine (i.e. through testing or analyzing the stats) what % of the time the market trades at, over and under the daily range then you have the making of a statistical edge. If you knew for example that only 10% of the time does the market trade beyond its daily average range by x%, then you could apply that to another play, like a mean reversion pattern at a level etc...

As an example, if the ES opens within x% of its globex high or low, there is a 90+ % chance that reference will be taken out. That's a statistical edge. I thought you might be going that way with the bands and i was looking forward to the results. If not, that's fine....carry on


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Yeah that's cool, just was a bit confused with the way you worded it. That's what I thought you meant. That's definitely something I hope to find out, just not sure of how. I know that with standard deviation in a normal distribution its something like 95% that it stays at 2 standard deviations or below so might be good to take turning points at beyond the 2nd level etc. Could come in handy


----------



## Joules MM1

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah that's cool, just was a bit confused with the way you worded it. That's what I thought you meant. That's definitely something I hope to find out, just not sure of how. I know that with standard deviation in a normal distribution its something like 95% that it stays at 2 standard deviations or below so might be good to take turning points at beyond the 2nd level etc. Could come in handy




are sigmas worth a study for this idea ?


----------



## rvm

Joules MM1 said:


> are sigmas worth a study for this idea ?



Yes, it's useful though I haven't traded CFDs often with this idea.

However, I have successfully tried this with certain bluechips and mid-cap equities that get clobbered/elevated by macro(instead of news). Found this handy during the 'boring' season(between May and October) when stock prices trade ranges in the absence of news. It's kind of a low-risk way to trade high probability edge cases.

I am currently working on a way to automate the process and incorporate other signals, but my programming skill is poor and I haven't had much spare time. I've requested some help - see how that turns out.


----------



## Joules MM1

rvm said:


> Yes, it's useful though I haven't traded CFDs often with this idea.
> 
> However, I have successfully tried this with certain bluechips and mid-cap equities that get clobbered/elevated by macro(instead of news). Found this handy during the 'boring' season(between May and October) when stock prices trade ranges in the absence of news. It's kind of a low-risk way to trade high probability edge cases.
> 
> I am currently working on a way to automate the process and incorporate other signals, but my programming skill is poor and I haven't had much spare time. I've requested some help - see how that turns out.




Fari Hamzei (constant top 5 US market timers according to timerdigest.com) is now making calls on $DAX
he's a big user of sigmas ...take some time to check out his work....at least watch a cupla vids of his if you want a diff perspective 

https://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Guys, range bands based on historical data will be very curve fitted.  Remember to do a walk forward test.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> Guys, range bands based on historical data will be very curve fitted.  Remember to do a walk forward test.




Isn't everything curve fitted though? All just based on recent price history no matter what indicator/tool it is?

And joules sigma is std dev? Same thing?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Isn't everything curve fitted though? All just based on recent price history no matter what indicator/tool it is?
> 
> And joules sigma is std dev? Same thing?




Yeh everything is fitted, but not everything works on unseen data.  

I had to look up sigma.  Six sigma came up a bit on google - basically a big move (6 std devs)and what happens next.  http://www.marketcalls.in/trading-l...-about-six-sigma-events-in-stock-markets.html


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yeh everything is fitted, but not everything works on unseen data.
> 
> I had to look up sigma.  Six sigma came up a bit on google - basically a big move (6 std devs)and what happens next.  http://www.marketcalls.in/trading-l...-about-six-sigma-events-in-stock-markets.html




Well I guess that's the risk we're willing to take by trading, can only minimise the risk, make the best call we can based on recent history/price action. Every trade we take is going to play out on unseen data, otherwise you have a serious gift and can see into the future  

Yeah there are the outliers which would also provide opportunities, on the day and after it I would imagine.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well I guess that's the risk we're willing to take by trading, can only minimise the risk, make the best call we can based on recent history/price action. Every trade we take is going to play out on unseen data, otherwise you have a serious gift and can see into the future
> 
> Yeah there are the outliers which would also provide opportunities, on the day and after it I would imagine.




You missed the point.  Testing on unseen data is possible with the right software.  If the optimized parameter fails on unseen data, the edge isn't really an edge.  If it passes, then it's a tradable edge.


----------



## rvm

Joules MM1 said:


> Fari Hamzei (constant top 5 US market timers according to timerdigest.com) is now making calls on $DAX
> he's a big user of sigmas ...take some time to check out his work....at least watch a cupla vids of his if you want a diff perspective
> 
> https://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
> http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp



Thank you once again, Joules!

Is timerdigest worth subscribing?

Mathematical analysis has been an eye-opener and I see a vast potential in this area. I have only used it on equity trades. Been mostly trading based on understanding of fundamentals, news, calendar events and my half-baked comprehension of chart patterns.... and mostly using excel and manually importing data from yahoo.

I have enrolled in couple of financial markets courses and programming courses via coursera - am currently considering quandl for my data source. I have yet to figure out if ninjatrader can do what I want. Lots to explore over the next few weeks.

rvm


----------



## Joules MM1

rvm said:


> Thank you once again, Joules!
> 
> Is timerdigest worth subscribing?
> 
> Mathematical analysis has been an eye-opener and I see a vast potential in this area. I have only used it on equity trades. Been mostly trading based on understanding of fundamentals, news, calendar events and my half-baked comprehension of chart patterns.... and mostly using excel and manually importing data from yahoo.
> 
> I have enrolled in couple of financial markets courses and programming courses via coursera - am currently considering quandl for my data source. I have yet to figure out if ninjatrader can do what I want. Lots to explore over the next few weeks.
> 
> rvm




timerdigest, no
definitely worth the time to watch cupla of Fari's edu videos, he uses self-written proprietory indicia + sigmas 
and has developed his own routines based on those indicia...if nothing else it'll open a few ideas


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> You missed the point.  Testing on unseen data is possible with the right software.  If the optimized parameter fails on unseen data, the edge isn't really an edge.  If it passes, then it's a tradable edge.




Yep I don't get the point. So its just random data it tests against or something? I don't get how it can forward test when I'm using data/info from one instrument. I'm calculating std dev from recent months, and updating every week. I don't understand how or the point of forward testing that. Its not a set of rules or mechanical.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yep I don't get the point. So its just random data it tests against or something? I don't get how it can forward test when I'm using data/info from one instrument. I'm calculating std dev from recent months, and updating every week. I don't understand how or the point of forward testing that. Its not a set of rules or mechanical.




All you need is software which does walk forward testing (eg. Amibroker).  Say you're trading ES.  You can choose how AB will break up the historical data of this single instrument, so that some is in-sample (training or 'best fit' data) and some is left as out-of-sample (unseen).

eg.  Use 2000-2001 to optimize the best SD.  AB finds best SD = 1.6.  Now it will take that number (1.6) and run it on data from 2001-2002 to see whether it's still profitable.  2001-2 is data which has had nothing to do with the optimization/fitting process, so it can be regarded as unseen.  This way we get to know whether an optimized number from last week/month/year will hold up and be profitable today and going forwards.

Howard Bandy has written a lot on this.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Gringotts Bank said:


> All you need is software which does walk forward testing (eg. Amibroker).  Say you're trading ES.  You can choose how AB will break up the historical data of this single instrument, so that some is in-sample (training or 'best fit' data) and some is left as out-of-sample (unseen).
> 
> eg.  Use 2000-2001 to optimize the best SD.  AB finds best SD = 1.6.  Now it will take that number (1.6) and run it on data from 2001-2002 to see whether it's still profitable.  2001-2 is data which has had nothing to do with the optimization/fitting process, so it can be regarded as unseen.  This way we get to know whether an optimized number from last week/month/year will hold up and be profitable today and going forwards.
> 
> Howard Bandy has written a lot on this.




Yeah I understand the process, but it doesn't make sense with what I'm doing and what I've made here. There is no 1.6 like number that can be used to optimize or tweak what I've made, what I'm calculating IS the std dev of the range of X period and it's just drawing that for me on the open of each day, it's not like one number is going to be better than another number, just different time period std devs, daily, hourly etc.  there's just one number, not like indicator settings where you have multiple options to change to see how it changes performance etc. 

I am using the most recent market data available to us so it's as recent as I'm going to get therefore the most valid data to use, there's no point me calculating the std dev of the range from a period of time back in 2000 or back in the early days when the Dax was created as the daily ranges were stuff all and projecting that on today's trading session as it's fairly irrelevant, hence why I'm doing just 2016, or the last 12 months and then updating it weekly from then on. 

The better calculations to be doing would be to do what Can and myself mentioned earlier and figure out how often in % terms we hit an upper/lower band or two levels up/down and stuff like if we hit two levels up/down what are the chances that we don't, or that we hit the opposite levels tomorrow etc. 

I am just curious to see how these(if at all) help in my trading as it seems like an idea that makes sense to me, they seem to be helping me with expectations of how the day will play out and some decent entry/exit points, in conjunction with everything else obviously, just another aid/tool in the process. 

I have been away(been answering on my phone over the weekend) but am back now to see how Friday and Monday looked as I wasn't here to watch. Friday didn't hit either first levels up or down, just bounced around between the hourly levels, quite nicely, definitely some nice places to enter where it bounced. Last night we hit one std dev lower and hovered around it basically bouncing around between the hourlies again with a great entry short where the gap closed, it all lines up.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

6 trades, 5 winners, +107 points, +$3900 AUD. 
Largest winner 38 points, largest loser half a point. Did a bit of 2 lot trading tonight so I could hit a target, then let the other go. 

Bands giving a good outline again, another nice play around the high + gap close. I have also added weekly and monthly std dev bands(not visible on this chart). We hit level one to the down side yesterday, which also lines up with level one on the hourly levels today, which may or may not have helped. Let's see how the day plays out


----------



## kid hustlr

Sam are you live or sim?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> Sam are you live or sim?




Just back to sim while I'm making and playing around with my levels to see how they go


----------



## kid hustlr

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Just back to sim while I'm making and playing around with my levels to see how they go




Cool mate - same here.

Just got excited when you wrote 4k day thats all


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

kid hustlr said:


> Cool mate - same here.
> 
> Just got excited when you wrote 4k day thats all




Yeah I probably wouldn't say anything if it was live, mainly use this thread for sim/testing things, doubt anyone would care or read this to justify posting all my details, so I'm surprised you're even reading here  Cheers! All the best with your trading


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah I probably wouldn't say anything if it was live, mainly use this thread for sim/testing things, *doubt anyone would care or read this* to justify posting all my details, so I'm surprised you're even reading here  Cheers! All the best with your trading





Hey Sam ..... Just bumping this thread after reading through it again in its entirety last night.  

No pressure intended so whether you carry on with anything etc is totally up to you but given some of the results you had achieved over a short period i reckon you were pretty close to something potentially life changing in your trading so this is just a post to encourage you to keep cultivating your ideas  Cheers.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Hey Sam ..... Just bumping this thread after reading through it again in its entirety last night.
> 
> No pressure intended so whether you carry on with anything etc is totally up to you but given some of the results you had achieved over a short period i reckon you were pretty close to something potentially life changing in your trading so this is just a post to encourage you to keep cultivating your ideas  Cheers.




Wow thanks barney! Surprised you maintained enough interest to read the entire thread  Sorry I totally missed your post with all the other threads being more active.


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Wow thanks barney! Surprised you maintained enough interest to read the entire thread  Sorry I totally missed your post with all the other threads being more active.




Lol .... Its a good thread.  Some of the trades you started generating were pretty impressive so whatever ideas you were working on would definitely be worth following up I reckon.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

After being encouraged from barney and a new year with hopefully more time, I think it's time I was more rigid and did this properly. So might as well line it up with the start of the year and trade sim for a few months, or however long it takes before my results look decent again, feeling very rusty as you'll see from my attempt at trading the aftermath of non-farms last night 

I have at times funded a CFD account trading the indices and occasionally some commodities with real money, did well off Brexit and Trump's election in 16, and also turned 1.5k into about 8k in around 4 weeks or so. Then had a string of a couple days of stupid decision and had some losses that really made me angry at myself, I didn't blow up the account or anything, just was down about it and mad at myself and also had to withdraw a big chunk of it for things outside of trading, so that was the end of that for a while.

But I had multiple little cracks at the market like that with just fiddling around with 1k or so, I did a motorbike tour through Vietnam in October and paid for the trip when I was over there with a nice trade, so that was awesome.

I'm also off to South America in Febuary this year. But will probably take my laptop and try to do some trading over there as I'll be there for 2 months so I really wanna try and keep it up over there as well.

Will post my horrendous trading for Thursday and Friday a bit later, am about to head out and melt in this 41 degree heat.


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> did well off Brexit and Trump's election in 16, and also turned 1.5k into about 8k in around 4 weeks or so.
> Then had a string of a couple days of stupid decision and had some losses that really made me angry at myself, I didn't blow up the account or anything, just was down about it and mad at myself
> paid for the trip when I was over there with a nice trade, so that was awesome.




Good stuff Sam! .... I see a 2:1win ratio above already 

1.5K to 8K = over 500% return in 4 weeks is in the gun trading category ....  There will be plenty of fellow punters interested so good luck with it.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

So this is the hilarity that was last night, shameful to look at after it's all happened, thought I'd stay up and watch the NFP release, can sometimes get a nice trade out of it, the session was terribly quiet in the lead up to the release, only a 40 point range or so on the dax, which is pretty quiet for the dax, everyone still on holidays I guess. Anyway as you can see from my sea of entry and exit arrows, fade, exit, fade, exit, fade, exit, finally got the drop back to pre-release area which made up for the nice hole I'd dug on the way up, then went to bed. Woke up this morning to see the rather nice trend after that but oh well, bed was calling!  

I am still fiddling around with my StdDev lines, seeing if I can improve them at all, they seem to be a reasonable guide for areas to at least pay a little more attention. But you do get those outlier days where it just goes beserk in one direction all day and blows any multiples of standard deviation out of the water. 

Was/am also investigating some machine learning stuff, but there's a lot to learn with that, Math, Python etc. So that can be like a side goal maybe, I'd rather work on myself and my own trading first. I have reasonable confidence, I know I've done it before and can do it again. Just needs fine-tuning, I tend to want to chase the market so I get filled, when I should probably leave my original order in and let it get hit, but it's hard to tell sometimes with the Dax, it can take off in a hurry so you have to be ready and anticipate! Also need to improve trade management, the two nights I traded this week prove how important that is, with 3 winners and 7 losers yet still profitable. 

Also traded Thursday night, so only the 2 nights but for the week:
Total ticks/profit: 53/$662.50
Total trades: 10
Winners: 3
Losers: 7
Avg winner: 22
Avg loser: 6


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Market hasn't been open long but feeling tired and have to go to bed soon, damn early starts at the moment  

Total ticks/profit: +101/1,262 EUR
Total trades: 6
Winners: 4
Losers: 2
Avg winner: 28 ticks
Avg loser: 6.5 ticks


----------



## captain black

Well done Sam 

Strong night in Europe, let's hope the Xmas/NY doldrums are behind us.

Great to see this thread up and running again


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So this is the hilarity that was last night, shameful to look at after it's all happened,
> I tend to want to chase the market so I get filled, when I should probably leave my original order in and let it get hit, but it's hard to tell sometimes with the Dax




Thats a lot less painful than what I thought you were going to present Sam

Last time I seriously traded the Dax I chased a reversal all night and got caught napping with a margin call and blew most of a decent sized CFD account in no time flat! At least you had the discipline to cut the trades before it got out of hand.

Without giving away any specific methods etc ..... Interested on how you implement standard deviation concepts into usable trading methods.  Do you use longer SD time frames superimposed over shorter time frames to get a wider picture of where you expect price to head before looking for levels or basically use it for intraday/range/reversion to the mean ideas?  Cheers.

PS was typing while you were posting above ..... Plenty of ticks!!  Nice work!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Thats a lot less painful than what I thought you were going to present Sam
> 
> Last time I seriously traded the Dax I chased a reversal all night and got caught napping with a margin call and blew most of a decent sized CFD account in no time flat! At least you had the discipline to cut the trades before it got out of hand.
> 
> Without giving away any specific methods etc ..... Interested on how you implement standard deviation concepts into usable trading methods.  Do you use longer SD time frames superimposed over shorter time frames to get a wider picture of where you expect price to head before looking for levels or basically use it for intraday/range/reversion to the mean ideas?  Cheers.
> 
> PS was typing while you were posting above ..... Plenty of ticks!!  Nice work!




Yeah it just looked funny when I actually stopped and looked at my entries/exits on the chart, what a mess  was thinking bugger, made a meal out of that! 

Yeah unfortunately that sort of thing can happen pretty fast on the Dax, if you're wrong you gotta cut it straight away with the way this thing can pop and jump around. 

Yeah that's kind of the idea, I calculate the standard deviation of the ranges on a higher time frame(daily, weekly etc.) and then my indicator draws that automatically on the open from the first bar. To be honest I don't tend to take trades based around those levels if I can, I've done that before, taking them as defined solid areas and only looking to trade around those(or any lines/levels) can be dangerous as the lead up to those lines could be filled with weakness in the book and we could be about to blow straight through. 

I mainly keep an eye on order flow and just have a feel for the Dax after all this time, you can tell after watching it a lot when it's going to pop here or go to that level first before doing anything else, how long it's taking to do something vs how far it's gone, lots of clues. The idea of taking a trade around my lines only makes sense when everything else agrees or at least try and get a decent entry, like a spike or pop below an area then it springs back up before the candle closes and does respect the line/area you were watching but you get good entries that enable you to relax a little and give it some room to move. 

Also having the prior day OHLC on the chart is just as good as anything else and keeping the weekly play in mind(where's the weekly high/low etc).


----------



## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Y
> Yeah that's kind of the idea, I calculate the standard deviation of the ranges on a higher time frame(daily, weekly etc.) and then my indicator draws that automatically on the open from the first bar.
> To be honest I don't tend to take trades based around those levels if I can, I've done that before, taking them as defined solid areas *and only looking to trade around those(or any lines/levels) can be dangerous* as the lead up to those lines could be filled with weakness in the book and we could be about to blow straight through.  *I mainly keep an eye on order flow* and just have a feel for the Dax after all this time.




Thanks Sam ... makes sense.  
Only limited assessment of SD's from my part but after a short look was unable to make anything concrete trading wise from it on its own.  
I like the reversion type stuff where a % directional move is followed by a retracement of either 50% or 75% of the initial move near recent tops/bottoms. I assume using SD's coupled with short term price action could be similar on days where the ducks align .... gotta watch those ducks though lol ...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

barney said:


> Thanks Sam ... makes sense.
> Only limited assessment of SD's from my part but after a short look was unable to make anything concrete trading wise from it on its own.
> I like the reversion type stuff where a % directional move is followed by a retracement of either 50% or 75% of the initial move near recent tops/bottoms. I assume using SD's coupled with short term price action could be similar on days where the ducks align .... gotta watch those ducks though lol ...




Haven't traded the last couple of nights, shifts at working are constantly changing and I'm starting even earlier now so don't get much time on the Dax if any as I have to go to bed, but that will probably change again when I get back from South America.

Yeah I'm not sure if there's much in the standard deviation thing or not, I was just experimenting and had the idea for a while, it's just like most things, some days it works wonders and the market seems to respect every area, others it blows straight through and they mean nothing, so that's why it's unwise to rigidly trade off those, but that's like most things I think.

I think I have a good feel for the Dax, know how it moves and have a reasonable idea of what it's going to do which is what most of my trades are based around. Whether "feel" and "I've seen this before so I'll trade it" is a legit trading "strategy/method" or not, who knows. I don't have any special notepad full of "plays", I just know them in my head and react when I see it. I guess if it works better than anything else I've tried then I guess it is.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Any of you guys got any decent historical intra-day data for the Dax? Say 1 minute? Or know where to get some? CQG wants 3k for it back to 2008, Eurex data shop is having "technical issues", but apparently they charge a fair bit too, thought I'd ask here first


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Any of you guys got any decent historical intra-day data for the Dax? Say 1 minute? Or know where to get some? CQG wants 3k for it back to 2008, Eurex data shop is having "technical issues", but apparently they charge a fair bit too, thought I'd ask here first



What kinda format? Probably got a few years worth of 1 min and nearly the same in tick data but has a few holes in the tick data.... 

[EDIT] 5 years of min data about 2 and a bit of tick


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> What kinda format? Probably got a few years worth of 1 min and nearly the same in tick data but has a few holes in the tick data....
> 
> [EDIT] 5 years of min data about 2 and a bit of tick




Ahh any that I can open in excel will be fine, did you use it for stats?


----------



## CanOz

I have 10 years of continuous contract data in 1 minute intervals, you can open in notepad. you should be able to open in Excel, if not you may find a data converter online. Its too big to post here unless Joe can make an exception. Otherwise we can file share.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Ok cool, TH can you email me the min data? 

I'm looking at trying to find out the average moves from the open, and trying to figure out how to notice the kind of day early on based on that, like if trend days have basically no pull back or just a pause etc. Vs a range day that retraces all of the inital move etc. Need more of an idea on how the day will play out. Any ideas? What did you guys do?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Any ideas? What did you guys do?




Spent the better part of all last year thinking about this and using Python trying to get a result from ML classifiers to help out. Trouble is from a ML point is that there is so few positive events. My first Algo had an accuracy of 94%. I was like  but the problem was you can get 94% accurate by just saying everything is NOT a large rage day 

Have had a few more ideas since and am starting to have another look at it cuz it would be a killer if you could code that. Still think that they aren't that hard to predict with just context.

The data I sent you I've re-sampled in Python to find the first 30 min data pre and post open was one of my first ideas...... first of many 

Here is some stats from the DAX that are of some help....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Spent the better part of all last year thinking about this and using Python trying to get a result from ML classifiers to help out. Trouble is from a ML point is that there is so few positive events. My first Algo had an accuracy of 94%. I was like  but the problem was you can get 94% accurate by just saying everything is NOT a large rage day
> 
> Have had a few more ideas since and am starting to have another look at it cuz it would be a killer if you could code that. Still think that they aren't that hard to predict with just context.
> 
> The data I sent you I've re-sampled in Python to find the first 30 min data pre and post open was one of my first ideas...... first of many
> 
> Here is some stats from the DAX that are of some help....
> 
> View attachment 69599




Awesome thanks for that! Been farting around all day with Python and trying to learn how to do what I want with it with pandas etc. Wanted to start with seeing what the average ranges were for the first hour pre-cash and then first hour post-cash open, but haven't really got it right yet, got the data spliced up for those time periods from the data but not sure how to do the rest, got about 500 tabs open in my browser  It's hard to know what to look for, stuff like average pull-back when it's a "trend" day, volume difference between big days and small days in the opening hours, stuff that might actually be useful like what you've posted, but seems like I'd have to define/tell it what a "trend" day is etc.

Lot's more reading to do!

And also squeezed in some trading on sim tonight. Got short early on as it opened at last week's mid point and at/above the weeks high so far, so the short seemed the least risky way to go, plus a gap close play. Tried to grab a bit of the little bounce just now too but got stopped out a B/E, got back in but chickened out for a few ticks. Multiple entry arrows were from last night, still had 1 contract on that I exited when it opened so that's annoying, wish it was possible to delete trades out of NT otherwise it skews the stats. Anyway ignoring that:

+97 ticks, just the 3 trades, 1 winner, 1 scratch and one 2 tick winner.






Time for my brain to have a rest and bed time. Not sure where to from here, maybe we'll push lower and test yesterdays mid-point at 505, this is why I need more of an idea of how the day is going to play out, check out the forest instead of each individual tree, all that stuff, you know the drill


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Not sure where to from here, maybe we'll push lower and test yesterdays mid-point at 505




Well cocked that one up lol, turned on a dime 11,528 and went back up to new highs for the day/week. I guess that bodes well for higher prices into Friday.


----------



## Trembling Hand

NT problems.... always when i was going to have a big day too.... I'm sure of it!!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> NT problems.... always when i was going to have a big day too.... I'm sure of it!!!




You've got NT problems tonight? You running 7 or 8 these days? Thought you were on CQG?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> You've got NT problems tonight? You running 7 or 8 these days? Thought you were on CQG?



8 feed with CQG. But really gotta think about moving on. Its been a 10 year relationship but she just isn't doing it for me anymore.... Looking for greener pastures..


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## CanOz

Why not use nt8 for charting TH, then RapidPro for dom and execution?


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## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Why not use nt8 for charting TH, then RapidPro for dom and execution?




You can even use cqg for both for an extra $10 a month!


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## Quant

Might have to start trading DAX again as ive never seen US markets so dull for so long  .. Fade of draghi was the play tonight  , my  counts look to catch the moves on dax well but tonights signal bar was near half the available range so not a stack in it . Will start watching it more and maybe participate here . XJO has been the best bang for buck recently in my small world  ...


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## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Why not use nt8 for charting TH, then RapidPro for dom and execution?



Yeah I have two log ins. Use NT for charting and like to use it for executions but have been looking for something else that offers the same sort of stats etc. Tried MultiCharts seems like same but different problems to NT. Have used CQG Trader etc. They are all a bit clunky too. Next will be back to TT and have a look at their newer stuff. But bugger me had hoped/wished NT8 was finally gonna be the last few improvements that they needed after using them for so long but still just same ****...

Whats RapidPro?


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## Trembling Hand

Quant said:


> Might have to start trading DAX again as ive never seen US markets so dull for so long  .. Fade of draghi was the play tonight  , my  counts look to catch the moves on dax well but tonights signal bar was near half the available range so not a stack in it . Will start watching it more and maybe participate here . XJO has been the best bang for buck recently in my small world  ...



Gees the DAX is getting pretty tame now too. Mid last year 200 point daily range was just about the avg. Now its seems like its under 100 with the odd bigger day here and there. Where has all the volatility gone? 

HSI? XINA50?


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## ThingyMajiggy

Maybe it will come back after Donald's inauguration, see what poop he causes to hit the fan when he gets in power. But yeah it's pretty dead at the moment, since Christmas, daily charts of most indices look like sideways tiny range rubbish, which means it'll probably explode soon haha.

RapidTrader is Jigsaw Tradings new "standalone" platform, even though its just DOMs. No charting. More like an execution platform. I hated multicharts, felt even worse than NT. To be honest everything feels pretty average when it comes to trading platforms. Don't mind CQG IC, but then thats 10 million dollars a month and not sure it's got stats like NT. Everything is going cloud-based too for some stupid reason, why is it a good idea to trade from a browser, pain in the ar$e to have multiple windows open etc. if you can at all.


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> RapidTrader is Jigsaw Tradings new "standalone" platform,



Oh god no! That thing gives me a headache just looking at screen shots. If I wanted to look at flashing lights and lose money I'd go to pokies.... or the rippers


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## CanOz

Time for you guys to switch to thicker markets!


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## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh god no! That thing gives me a headache just looking at screen shots. If I wanted to look at flashing lights and lose money I'd go to pokies.... or the rippers




If you want to try TT let me know, I'll give you my credentials.


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## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> If you want to try TT let me know, I'll give you my credentials.



Can I practice with ya dollars too?


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## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Time for you guys to switch to thicker markets!




Ewww thicker markets  Not sure I could have the patience to wait for a thicker market to move its 10 ticks for the day.


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## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Can I practice with ya dollars too?




I think there's two grand in that account, take what you need and I'll send you my westpac details....that's how much I trust you.


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## tech/a

That popped nicely


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well cocked that one up lol, turned on a dime 11,528 and went back up to new highs for the day/week. I guess that bodes well for higher prices into Friday.


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## ThingyMajiggy

Basically flat from when I said that, so far. Stuffed up that one too, turns out I can't predict the day _or_ week


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## Trembling Hand

Old fashion bull market action..... Hardly remember what to do.....


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## Modest

Trembling Hand said:


> Old fashion bull market action..... Hardly remember what to do.....


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh god no! That thing gives me a headache just looking at screen shots. If I wanted to look at flashing lights and lose money I'd go to pokies.... or the rippers




What platform did you end up going with? You trying out the new TT web-based cloud platform? Can't imagine you liking that very much!


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What platform did you end up going with? You trying out the new TT web-based cloud platform? Can't imagine you liking that very much!



Nah still using and complaining about NT. They have now moved NT8 CQG historical data to their servers and reduced access to instruments!! FFS! No SFE no CAC and I'm sure there is more coming.


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## CanOz

Thanks for that....thought I was going nuts trying to load the spi history....grrr


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## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Thanks for that....thought I was going nuts trying to load the spi history....grrr



Can you go here and bitch and squeal like I did,
http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?p=494091

In fact anyone else that uses NT. This is just a dumb move from them.


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## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Can you go here and bitch and squeal like I did,
> http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?p=494091
> 
> In fact anyone else that uses NT. This is just a dumb move from them.




Done....


Another frustrated lifetimer....why no warning on this? The CAC as well I hear...and just after I lavished NT with praise for having historical HKFE data....your just making it harder and harder for Asia Pacific traders to stick with you..

You should know the old rule of thumb, for every customer that complains....100 just stop using the product.

Disappointed.


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## CanOz

I really think Sierra Chart might be the next best pc based app. I hear it's very reliable, although not as intuitive as NT, but simple and straightforward.


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## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> I lavished NT with praise for having historical HKFE data




Who is the HKFE data through?


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## CanOz

NT had historical cqg data....7 years worth or so.


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## fiftyeight

Had or have for NT 8?


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## CanOz

I had it for nt7, tested a couple of systems on it. Not tried it since on nt8.


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## rvm

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah still using and complaining about NT. They have now moved NT8 CQG historical data to their servers and reduced access to instruments!! FFS! No SFE no CAC and I'm sure there is more coming.



I gave up on NT and switched to Market Delta. Tad pricey, but has everything I need.


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## CanOz

rvm said:


> I gave up on NT and switched to Market Delta. Tad pricey, but has everything I need.




Yeah that was another solid platform too but I heard some of thier clients were switch to IRT for some reason recently....any idea what that was about?


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## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Yeah that was another solid platform too but I heard some of thier clients were switch to IRT for some reason recently....any idea what that was about?




Looks like they were bought out by CQG as the new MarketDelta platform is just CQG underneath, same looking DOMs and platform etc.


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## CanOz

Really....is that just the cloud based one?


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## rvm

CanOz said:


> Really....is that just the cloud based one?



You've got desktop and cloud. Desktop version has tons of features - 

Nice separation of cash, market hours, volume profiles, cumulative delta, studies etc


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## ThingyMajiggy

rvm said:


> You've got desktop and cloud. Desktop version has tons of features -
> 
> Nice separation of cash, market hours, volume profiles, cumulative delta, studies etc





Yeah that's definitely CQG based now, I think it used to be Investor R/T based.


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## ThingyMajiggy

Some range and volume distribution histograms for the Dax, probably of no use but trying to get better with Python...


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Some range and volume distribution histograms for the Dax, probably of no use but trying to get better with Python...
> 
> View attachment 69857



Do a recent range histogram along side the from 2010 to now stats.... will sux!


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## ThingyMajiggy

Mid 2016 - Now



Dec 2016 - Now


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## kid hustlr

All this data talk has got me intrigued. Am I fool for trading ICE futures through IB? Should I be looking at NInja trader for cheaper rates?


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## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> All this data talk has got me intrigued. Am I fool for trading ICE futures through IB? Should I be looking at NInja trader for cheaper rates?



What contract/s?


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## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> What contract/s?




Mainly FTSE but occasionally the mini and the 10 year notes in the USA.

Perhaps a better question,

Do the All in rates on the link below include data fees & random monthly fees or do those fees come on top?

http://ninjatrader.com/PDF/ninjatrader_futures_commissions.pdf


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## CanOz

Bizarre how we can be 11k ish and have less range....smells like a top...


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## Valued

CanOz said:


> Bizarre how we can be 11k ish and have less range....smells like a top...




In my opinion the current situation doesn't indicate a top. I think the market has room to move upwards and it is more likely to move up than down. I also note though I think the risk to the downside is asymmetrical so making a bit bet on a long right now is likely risky (even if there was a 5% risk of a major crash, with leverage that's a 5% risk potentially of bankruptcy the way some people trade and invest) but smaller short term bets I think are reasonable and I think it is more profitable to move in and out of long positions right now than it would be to make a big bet on a down move. Current world monetary policy is supporting equity prices. It depends how much you trust central banks to not pull the rug out from under us though. They can't be so accommodating forever.

Donald Trump's proposed bank regulatory changes will support equity prices potentially as well and signs that this is moving ahead is likely to boost the markets in the medium term or at least hold them where they are. By medium term I mean the next 12 months. This is only my opinion though. Some global macro traders are saying we are at a high risk of being at the top and are expecting a crash within the next 12 months. The price of oil is a major factor right now too so things could change on a dime.


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## CanOz

I haven't even seen a chart in a week....


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## Valued

CanOz said:


> I haven't even seen a chart in a week....



You're making it sound like I was the US dropping a nuclear weapon on New Zealand lol. I knew you had computer problems but you only own one computer? I figured you must have a laptop or something too because you're posting on the forums. When is your computer going to be back up and running?


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## CanOz

I have a laptop, an iPad pro, an iPad air, an iPhone. I just haven't seen any of my normal market analysis for a while...although there's some similarly stuff on Twitter....no time either..2 sons ....an 8 week old and a 2.5 yr old...very hectic...lol

Got my machine back today...hope to start rebuilding workspaces tomorrow...

Sorry for the off topic thingy!


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## Trembling Hand

Geez yesty was all pushy and pulley just like the good old days then tonight its all grindy and chewy.... Its like someones trying to make trading hard.


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## ThingyMajiggy

What price are your charts saying the Dax finished at guys? I think it turns out if you use "Use Instrument settings" as the template for the trading hours it just shows the cash hours on a daily chart, on my intra-day charts its showing the Dax up at 11,785. But daily is showing a close of 11,735, which is where it was at Europe cash close. That's a fairly decent rally after hours, considering how dead it's been.


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## barney

ThingyMajiggy said:


> That's a fairly decent rally after hours.




I have 11785 on my bucket shop data but that might be unreliable.

CAC FTSE DOW SPI also all pushed up after after hrs on a Friday (CAC was smashed earlier) ..... 

Its not "danger Will Robinson time" but if swing trading, my gut says sell higher highs (scale in) over the next week or two ...... any breakout scenarios into higher highs should be treated with caution and suspicion

Disclaimer I am a novice Futs trader so treat my opinion with caution and suspicion


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## tech/a

DAX is sweet short


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## tech/a

And done 11986
27 points 45 min


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## tech/a

From resistance to support then straight back again

Done for tonight


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## Virge666

Guessing you guys are doing futures... What is the code for dax  options and mini dax options...

All I have in ib are the main ones at 155 a contract

Got fdxm from the site... But can't find the ib code


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## tech/a

Volatility has gone
Time for a holiday


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## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Volatility has gone
> Time for a holiday



Agreed its been horrible. But you may have given up 1 day too early.

This idiot should shake it up a bit,
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/...ss-live-coverage-watch-online-streaming-video


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## kid hustlr

Virge666 said:


> Guessing you guys are doing futures... What is the code for dax  options and mini dax options...
> 
> All I have in ib are the main ones at 155 a contract
> 
> Got fdxm from the site... But can't find the ib code



DAX


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## tech/a

DAX is good long tonight 
Breaking consolidations to make higher highs


----------

