# PES - Pure Energy Resources



## Dukey (19 April 2007)

OK - here's another one for all those enjoying the CSM sub-sector of late. Seems to have been overlooked on ASF thus far.....
A small cap - but seems to have potential - and in this field you know what that means..........

Market Cap ~ $16M
25M shares and 12.5M options (PESO)

Some bits condensed off the company website: 



> "PES established 2004 by experienced industry professionals in Coal Seam Gas(CSG).
> ASX listing (shares-PES,options-PESO) - 12/9/2006 after a successful raising of $5,000,000 - oversubscribed.
> 
> Corporate goal to become a leading coal seam gas producer in Queensland and the primary coal seam gas producer in Tasmania. The Company has an experienced corporate and technical Board and management team. The Directors are Dr Robert Day (Non-Executive Chairman), Steve Beardsall (Managing Director), Terry Primeau (Non-Executive Director), and Mr Shaun Scott (Non-Executive Director).
> ...





PES share price jumped from 22c to 38 (!!) between 29/3 and 10/4 - PRIOR to announcement of commencement of drilling in Tassie (.pdf) on April 12. 
This Tassie project - now drilling looks very interesting  - close to infrastructure and in a well established coalfield with previous evidence of gas (via underground explosion!).
Relationship with AOE through Qld farm-ins seems useful to assist fast-tracking of exploration/devel.

PESO   - options were granted with the float (1 for every 2 shares) - exercisable for 30c before 31/12/08. Last price today 17.5c.

PES - Trading around 36c

One to keep an eye on methinks.  
Anyone in on this one??


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## ongchuan (1 May 2007)

The SP is now going up i guess? Time for entry?? A lot of buyers queuing up but seller side is less. Share tightly held??


Anyone would have any more information to share bout this company? Esp their financial status and prospect.


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## Dukey (3 May 2007)

Just posted these guys on outstanding breakout thread. have a look there.

bought a few seeing sellers are drying up....   a bit of a gamble but feels good!!!

gotta go....


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## Dukey (4 May 2007)

ongchuan said:


> The SP is now going up i guess? Time for entry?? A lot of buyers queuing up but seller side is less. Share tightly held??
> 
> Anyone would have any more information to share bout this company? Esp their financial status and prospect.




Financial status - cash flow report out the other day states just under $4M AUD cash at end of qtr.  Which would indicate they've spent around $1M (net) since float Sept 06, which raised $5M.

Prospects should be very good - given new leases in Qld near QGC and other current CSM producers.  Recent share price action reflect this I think. Also currently drilling in Tasmania. Should get some results from there later in the quarter apparently.
Almost forgot - they have a close relationship with AOE who own 14% of PES and have some farm-ins in Qld blocks.

I bought the basic shares yesterday - but in hindsight the options might have been a good idea ?? PESO. I might have done that if I wasn't in such a hurry to get out the door yesterday.

- so I think they are a goer BUT as always *do your own research yadda yadda yadda*. They have already more than doubled in the past month... so who knows. I'm not gonna try and put a valuation on them. I'm just gonna hold for the ride and maybe buy more if the chance arises and I can dig up the cash.

Anyone else in on these guys yet?? or am I still alone


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## ongchuan (4 May 2007)

This guy looks good to me. But currently I dun have any money to go into it. Otherwise i would like to. I am thinking of entering when it was 40 cent two days ago and now it is 50 cent. Damn. Share are tightly held which i think is good for the SP to fly off like a rocket!


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## chops_a_must (4 May 2007)

As you know Dukey I'm watching them closely. Just wish I could afford to buy a parcel of them as all my money is tied up.  

You forgot to mention that AOE owns 25% of PES on a fully diluted basis.   And seem prepared to fund most of the Queensland developments, so the cash position is not that much of an issue IMO.

Their fields in Queensland look great, and in a sector destined for consolidation, this is an obvious T/O target. The small market cap makes it look like a fun trading share as well.

I hope and I'm sure you'll do well with this one Dukey.  

As always DYOR on this one as I'm not full bottle on it yet.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## Dukey (4 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> As you know Dukey I'm watching them closely. Just wish I could afford to buy a parcel of them as all my money is tied up.
> ....
> You forgot to mention that AOE owns 25% of PES on a fully diluted basis.   And seem prepared to fund most of the Queensland developments, so the cash position is not that much of an issue IMO.
> 
> ...




Yeah  thanks Chops. Thanks for your research on other CSMers as well. I just love this sector - clean green energy and SP's going like the clappers on a regular basis.
- I added the AOE 14% as an edit as you were posting I think. Didn't realize it was actually 25% fully diluted?? How do you work that figure out? Is it as a result of farm-ins etc.

I'm actually kicking myself I didn't buy the options yesterday!!! They don't exercise until Dec 2008 though!!  What happens to options if a T/O offer comes in?? 

I'm gonna post on the CSM thread about 'what possible hiccups' CSM sector as a whole could face... Something we should consider - especially me seeing I'm almost 70% invested in CSM at the moment!!


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## Dukey (24 May 2007)

For those watching the Coal Seam Methane sector of late...
PES yesterday released their latest 'company presentation' - Check it out for a good outline of their plans and projects in Qld and Tassie.

As one of the small caps in this sector - but with plenty of good 'ground' to drill and working relationship with AOE, there seems to be plenty of room for SP growth as seen with the likes of QGC and AOE in the last year or so.

As always - DYOR and good luck to those who join me..:bier:


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## Dukey (8 June 2007)

Well - mostly posting to myself again but hey why not...

VERY interesting day for PES.
First the announcement after midday that gas desorption testing is underway on their first Tassie CSM hole (Fingal 55B).

Then Trading Halt (!) after close of market...
... can you smell it??? .... I think I smell ...... G g g g g aaasssssssssssss

Of course they could wind up announcing a whole lot of nothing and I'll be eating my own head come monday - but...I'm not betting on that outcome.
This baby is looking better every day and I just wish  had someone on ASF to share it with!!!    I know chops has been watching but it seems no-one else is 'in'.

to quote the infamous Pink Floyd

'...  is there anybody .... out there...'


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## chops_a_must (8 June 2007)

The sell off seemed totally unwarranted today.

You wouldn't have any idea as to why the trading halt was called do you? What's their cash position like?

I didn't think they had a problem with cash... and AOE was farming in and covering all their costs anyway... Maybe AOE is farming into their Tassie assets? That'd be interesting... Perhaps more land? As with all small companies the odds are on a cap raising... but I didn't think that was as much of a problem with this company...


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## Col Lector (8 June 2007)

Dont despair Dukey...you arent alone. Placed my original buy order at 54c....then 61...then 71....then 77...Finally got into PES at 81c...just had to bite the bullet & pay the price. Any SP pullback in shortterm welcomed so can topup.
East Coast CSG producers will have a big future.... In the AFR today ("High Time for Howard to step on the gas" pg75) ABARE is quoted as expecting gas demand on the eastern seaboard to outstrip local supply from 2012-13.
These guys are very well positioned to take advantage.....confirming decent Tassie reserves will put the SP into hyperdrive given the gas demand growth anticipated.
I'm not in AOE, but have BPT (Tipton West partner) and also AJL (well established in providing CSG drilling services & possible Gloucester Basin project)


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## Dukey (8 June 2007)

The announcement today stated that the Tassie wells were being drilled by PES and farm-in partner AOE. Thats something I missed along the way - i thought AOE were only in on Qld tenements??

Anyway AOE also carried the announcement I think - so they are definitely farmed-in to the Tassie deal. How much I dunno??

Cash - march qtly indicated they had about $4M at end of March quarter. Drilling will eat that quickly I guess? Need to check out this Tassie farm-in deal.

But my gut says one thing ... starts with G and ends with ASS.

Col - lovely to see I'm not alone!!!!!!! good luck.


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## chops_a_must (8 June 2007)

"But my gut says one thing ... starts with G and ends with ASS."

If your guts are saying this... maybe you should lay off the baked beans!!!  :


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## Dukey (8 June 2007)

Mate - doesn't seem to matter what I eat...it's always there!!!!!!! 
Maybe PES & AOE  should farm-in to my A.....!!!!!!!!!!! :grinsking
There's probably enough to go round.


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## Col Lector (13 June 2007)

Origin Energy has just announced a 630MW gas-fired Darling Downs power station (near Braemar, west of Dalby) with pipeline adjacent the WalloonCoal Measures. Could be positive for future PES's 100% southern tenement ATP852P (near Spring gully). See Origin's ann 12/6/07

Doubt this the reason for current trading halt however


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## Dukey (14 June 2007)

[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]PES out of the gates again (up 20% so far) after lifting of trading halt and news:[/FONT]​[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]1. Has taken option to buy the 'Tipton west CSG royalty stream' from COI (Comet Ridge Limited) for $3mill. Tipton west is aoperated by PES close partner Arrow. The royalty stream is estimated to be worth up to $8mill.[/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]2. In additon PES have raised $5.25 Mill at 68c from institutional investors. and plan to raise an extra $2mill via SPP for existing shareholders at 69cents. [/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Looks like Chops picked it - when he said Cap Raising. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]I was too early shouting gas!!!! in Tassie - with any luck - that announcement is still up the sleeve!!![/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Happy days Col.!!![/FONT]

[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]ASX announcement here[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=PES[/FONT]


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## Col Lector (14 June 2007)

Gidday Dukey, Could be misinterpreting...but I sense you seem relatively pleased with the announcement...!
PES nicely cashed up now.... Tipton West partners (BPT & AOE) seem assured to fastrack & maximise this project...and hence the royalty stream to PES.
The affect of share-purchase scheme@ 0.69 record date June 28 on SP should be interesting. Might be some short-term profit-takers (like those "sophisticated" investors who received placement at 0.68)....however I expect it to work to support the SP over the next fortnight. My thinking is that the majority of holders will be holding to ensure they snare the 0.69 cents shares & in anticipation of the further announcements flagged. Once those selling dry-up & this gets wider publicity I expect others wanting to get aboard will be fighting for a dwinding supply of shares on offer...
A positive scenario which could become a superb one if good Tassie results are announced soon.


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## chops_a_must (14 June 2007)

Dukey said:


> [FONT=Times New Roman, serif]PES out of the gates again (up 20% so far) after lifting of trading halt and news:[/FONT]​[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]1. Has taken option to buy the 'Tipton west CSG royalty stream' from COI (Comet Ridge Limited) for $3mill. Tipton west is aoperated by PES close partner Arrow. The royalty stream is estimated to be worth up to $8mill.[/FONT]
> 
> [FONT=Times New Roman, serif]2. In additon PES have raised $5.25 Mill at 68c from institutional investors. and plan to raise an extra $2mill via SPP for existing shareholders at 69cents. [/FONT]
> 
> ...




If anyone wanted more proof of AOE being in bed with PES, here it is.

What would be really interesting to see, is if AOE increase their stake in PES. If they take up more shares as a "sophisticated investor", and also the full allowance due to the physical shares they have. Any upward change would be very nice.

Still not holding, but would like to be. I wouldn't be able to afford a placement anyway I don't think. Can't see the raising being seen as a negative... PES are positioning themselves in all the right places by the looks.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## Col Lector (14 June 2007)

Gidday Chops....not just in bed-together...but fully at it...and now in public it seems..  Seems likely to be an affectionate...and productive union...I am not so prudish to complain..


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## Dukey (25 June 2007)

Dukey said:


> [FONT=Times New Roman, serif]2. In additon PES have raised $5.25 Mill at 68c from institutional investors. and plan to raise an extra $2mill via SPP for existing shareholders at 69cents. [/FONT]




How about the timing of the SPP - its wham bam thankyou mam!!!:whip

SPP announced Jun14. 
Prospectus released Jun 22.
Offers Opens SAME DAY !! June 22 and closes Jun 26!!
 (thats tomorrow!!) - very small 'window of opportunity' for shareholders in my opinion. What a joke!! - barely gives anyone time to mail the forms!!
Anyone would think these guys dont actually want shareholders to take up the offer - is that possible?

Can anyone tell me why they would do it on such a tight schedule - I'm sure many investors will miss out. I know i will cause the timing for me - temporarily in japan is impossible.

--------------------
HOLD the BUS!!!  - maybe I have my dates confused between the corporate and shareholder capital raisings.??
can anyone enlighten me?


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## Col Lector (25 June 2007)

Hey Dukey....thought the same thing but have a read of the first page (or so) of the prospectus....this is for an issue of 10K shares at 0.68. As I read it relates to the previous placement & is a way for them to avoid getting shareholder approval...Dont stress! (Though not certain they havent changed SPP details (at 0.69) originally announced...call might be needed to be certain)


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## Dukey (25 June 2007)

Col Lector said:


> Hey Dukey....thought the same thing but have a read of the first page (or so) of the prospectus....this is for an issue of 10K shares at 0.68. As I read it relates to the previous placement & is a way for them to avoid getting shareholder approval...Dont stress! (Though not certain they havent changed SPP details (at 0.69) originally announced...call might be needed to be certain)




Do you mean its a bogus SPP for shareholders? ie just done to avoid a EGM meeting?
just e-mailed the company to clarify the dates - will call them if no reply.


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## Col Lector (25 June 2007)

Dukey...I think the highlighted section below shows this doesnt relate to the promised SPP at 0.69, but rather to the recent placement @0.68. Designed to allow those shares to be freed up for sale I think...


SHORT FORM PROSPECTUS
For an offer of 10,000 Shares at an issue price of 68 cents each to raise up to $6,800.
*This Prospectus has been prepared for the purpose of Section 708A(11) of the
Corporations Act to remove any restrictions on the sale of securities recently issued by
the Company.*Important Notice
This Prospectus is a short form prospectus issued in accordance with Section 712 of the
Corporations Act. This Prospectus does not of itself contain all the information that is
generally required to be set out in a document of this type but refers to other documents
the information of which is deemed to be incorporated in this Prospectus.


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## Dukey (25 June 2007)

Col Lector said:


> Dukey...I think the highlighted section below shows this doesnt relate to the promised SPP at 0.69, but rather to the recent placement @0.68. Designed to allow those shares to be freed up for sale I think...
> 
> 
> SHORT FORM PROSPECTUS
> ...




Maybe so - i hope you are right Col. Seems like a strange and confusing way to do things to me... the form on the bottom of the prospectus doesn't indicate who its for - though it does say 68c.  
On p7 they say the current prospectus is for UP TO 10000 shares @ 68c.  This doesn't sound like the recent institutional placement to me. Sounds like a shareholder spp.

we'll see i guess - but I'd hate to miss out on ... what 30odd%! free gain!!


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## Dukey (25 June 2007)

OK - so ... clarification direct from PES office. - nice quick reply too. 
 You were right Col. - SPP is later on.  They gave me *indicative* dates for the SPP as set out below.   



> Dear Earl
> 
> The short form prospectus lodged by the Company on the 22 June 2007 is
> pertaining to the equity capital raising ( share placement) recently
> ...


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## TheAbyss (4 February 2008)

Anyone holders left here? I am considering having a run for 12 months with these guys and see how they play out. Fundementals look ok, their holding in the walloon fairway is pretty interesting given evyone else in there has found significant CSG.

Looking oversold at the moment also based on the bollingers so it looks viable in the short and longer term.


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## grace (6 February 2008)

Like Abyss, I have started looking at this company.  Would also be interested in hearing from current/past holders about opinions on their exploration holdings, quality of management etc.  Any information would be appreciated.


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## grace (17 April 2008)

There seems to be a bit of "movement at the station" on this one at the moment.
Matthews Capital Partners just increasing their stake from 7.76% to 14.72%. (also increased their stake in Arrow to 10.41%)
*Arrow Energy owning 12.75%*

MC = $41 million

I rang the Company secretary and discussed recent gas content on drills.  Don't really quite understand it all, but I'm trying to learn.  Seems as though it has heaps of potential IMO.  I mentioned that Richard Cottee expects "some consolidation in the industry"  (QGC MD), and he said I think there will be some consolidation.....did you notice Arrow Energy on our register he replied........mmm, well, takeover potential......and Matthews has just taken a blocking stake.....mmm, interesting.  All looked too good to me and I took a position in this......

Would appreciate other's opinion on gas content of recent drill (gas flow free on recent drill).


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## Dukey (17 April 2008)

grace said:


> There seems to be a bit of "movement at the station" on this one at the moment.
> Matthews Capital Partners just increasing their stake from 7.76% to 14.72%. (also increased their stake in Arrow to 10.41%)
> *Arrow Energy owning 12.75%*
> 
> ...




Hi Grace - I've been in this one for a while now - almost a year!! - has been up and down with the market but (without recalling the figures) now that they are drilling into their 'walloon fairway' tenement in SW Qld - the same CSG play that has put QGC where it is today (!!) - I expect them to power on.

My (over?)simplified thinking is that the area they are now drilling is almost a no brainer (ie money in the bank).  And the first hole confirms it - hence people jumping on board.  
My only concern is that they have taken a long time to get the rigs in there!!  Too long. ...  but they will make $$ from this area for sure.

I don't know that much about their other tenements in Qld.  There might be higher risk in those.

As for Tassie - where they drilled first last year - they have been very quiet about it so I presume its not encouraging (ie poor gas test results...??)  but  maybe there's another reason.  should e-mail them about that...

Consolidation ??  a distinct possibility esp with AOE a large holder (& partner) ... When???...  No Idea.

Nice to see some upward movement finally 
- the CSG companies have given me something to smile about for my portfolio this week!!

-Best of luck - Duke...E !


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## Dukey (1 May 2008)

PES going nicely recently : up around 60-70% since drilling started in their Walloon Fairway tenements.

30-35 m of promising permeable coals in recent drilling.

-- all the other action in CSG  & energy stocks  not hurting either!!

Gooo   Gaaasssss  Gooooo!!!!! 

(holding)


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## grace (14 May 2008)

This little company is going to have one heck of an initial reserves resource later this year, and I'm looking forward to it.

Their announcement today is well worth your time.

Intersecting 30 metres coal in the Walloon Coal Fields at 7.5m3/tonne  (QGC ranges from 3 - 9m3/tonne so they are right on the money and up to about 30m thick).

They have one more drill to go to prove up their Walloon field of 700 square kms of csg.

Very large acreage - one of the biggest in QLD!

MC = $60 mill (need to check for oppie dilution)

Arrow Energy hold a blocking stake.....

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080514/pdf/00842053.pdf


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## TheAbyss (14 May 2008)

Just loving the entire CSG sector at the moment. 

Grace, thanks for shining a light on PES back in February via the QGC thread. I was tossing up what else in the sector looked good and you pointed out the amount of land holding PES had and its location. Thank you.

That is one very large potential resource that PES have their hands on. Can only hope that they prove up a lot of it before they receive a buy out offer which is a matter of time given the consolidation that is happening and will continue to for some time yet.


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## grace (14 May 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Just loving the entire CSG sector at the moment.
> 
> Grace, thanks for shining a light on PES back in February via the QGC thread. I was tossing up what else in the sector looked good and you pointed out the amount of land holding PES had and its location. Thank you.
> 
> That is one very large potential resource that PES have their hands on. Can only hope that they prove up a lot of it before they receive a buy out offer which is a matter of time given the consolidation that is happening and will continue to for some time yet.




Yes, I am enjoying the ride too. 

I see you are up there in this months competition too.  Good luck with that.

PES looks about where QGC were at about 5 or so years ago.  Hope the share price follows them too!


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## TheAbyss (14 May 2008)

Looking at the size of the PES acreage and the preliminary data on the resource these guys will potentially be valued at around 65-70 % of QGC using the potential resource as the yardstick criteria. This will require other items to come into line such as management decisions, exposure, staffing etc and require that little bit of luck to go their way.

PES are a way behind QGC in proving the resource etc however are riding the wave of CSG sentiment so the hard yards have been done for them and the sector now has credibility. This will smooth the pathway for evolution to producer from explorer.

Looking good and there are a few other lesser known CSG'ers still to run as hard however it is happening.


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## grace (14 May 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Looking good and there are a few other lesser known CSG'ers still to run as hard however it is happening.




I am thinking of picking up some PES oppies on any pullback.

Care to mention the lesser known?....I have been studying a few others in QLD.  I live in southern Qld and there are a few drillers operating around where I live.


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## TheAbyss (14 May 2008)

Grace, Probably not the thread for a run down on my CSG thoughts so i will PM you.

Next time you are in Brisbane let me know and i will buy you lunch for the PES info.


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## grace (15 May 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Looking at the size of the PES acreage and the preliminary data on the resource these guys will potentially be valued at around 65-70 % of QGC using the potential resource as the yardstick criteria. This will require other items to come into line such as management decisions, exposure, staffing etc and require that little bit of luck to go their way.
> 
> PES are a way behind QGC in proving the resource etc however are riding the wave of CSG sentiment so the hard yards have been done for them and the sector now has credibility. This will smooth the pathway for evolution to producer from explorer.




Like you, I see more upside for this one than the big guys (eg QGC) as a lot of the hard work has been done and infrastructure either there or about to be, but I think Arrow will take it over eventually.  Perhaps Arrow will be taken out too though.

As for management, they have the ex-Arrow man who was in Arrow for a very long time (from the beginnings I thought).  I will do some more research on this though...

Here is a chart, looking strong and with a fund buying more (Matthews...also in Arrow!).

Waiting for a pullback still to add to my holdings....


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## grace (15 May 2008)

I was unaware of the link between Arrow and Pure.  Arrow shareholders received priority entitlement when pure floated with Dr Robert Day coming over from Arrow to take the reins as non-executive chairman.  Arrow then got to farm in to certain acreage.

Robert Day was with Arrow for a long time, but here is his resume...



> Dr Robert William Day
> BSc (Hons), PhD, Grad.Dip.Bus.Admin, MAusIMM
> Non Executive Chairman
> Dr Robert Day was recently appointed a Director of Pure and was a Director of Arrow Energy NL (Arrow) since 1998 shortly after the Company was formed until 15 August 2006.
> ...


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## Jimminy (15 May 2008)

grace said:


> but I think Arrow will take it over eventually.  Perhaps Arrow will be taken out too though.




New Hope Coal as a major shareholder in Arrow will be potential spanner in the works for any t/o of Arrow. They have a beneficial interest in AOE to progress NHC exploration acreage near AOE acreage.


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## grace (19 May 2008)

The chart is still looking strong, and thanks to this one, LNC and a few other coal seam gasers, the portfolio is quite healthy for once.

Any thoughts on who might be buying in? or more for Matthews? or general buying?


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## grace (20 May 2008)

Still a lot of volume coming through.  I'm thinking another change in substancial holding, or new holder soon.....  If I was Arrow, I would be increasing my holding (as others up their holdings) before a reserve statement later this year.

The options have been trading often at a discount to the heads, as has been the case most days.


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## grace (26 May 2008)

Thought this one would retrace a bit, but it's holding up fairly well.  Here is today's presentation which has a target of 1000pj on just one field.  I'd be happy with that proven up!

1000pj should give a market cap of $1billion given that recent takeover activity values are at $1million per pj, although sales revenue in Asia are in the vicinity of $11million per pj (less costs of course).

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080526/pdf/00845192.pdf


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## TheAbyss (26 May 2008)

And that is on just 5% of their landholding with a lot more drilling to go yet. Every prospect a company maker to use their words from the presentation.

That plus they have virually the whole of Tasmania's CSG fields under license with Tasmania now on the National Electricity market they would need a lot of bad luck to not make a success of Tasmania in its own right.


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## TheAbyss (28 May 2008)

A lot of CSG plays cannot claim to have potential to 975 PJ of 3p in their entire portfolio. 

PES look like doing this on just one of their tenements based on their announcment today. They still haven't looked at more than 5% of their landholding yet.

PES will look pretty cheap once they get cracking on proving up 3p/2p resources.

Consolidation in this sector is a certainty to continue.


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## grace (28 May 2008)

grace said:


> Thought this one would retrace a bit, but it's holding up fairly well.  Here is today's presentation which has a target of 1000pj on just one field.  I'd be happy with that proven up!
> 
> 1000pj should give a market cap of $1billion given that recent takeover activity values are at $1million per pj, although sales revenue in Asia are in the vicinity of $11million per pj (less costs of course).
> 
> http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080526/pdf/00845192.pdf




More good news from the last drill.  Contingent resources of 975PJ on ATP852.  Prove that up, and just on that small area alone, we have a market cap of $1billion expected. 

83mill shares
x $1.45 = $120 million 

Interesting future ahead.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080528/pdf/00846082.pdf


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## grace (28 May 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> A lot of CSG plays cannot claim to have potential to 975 PJ of 3p in their entire portfolio.
> 
> PES look like doing this on just one of their tenements based on their announcment today. They still haven't looked at more than 5% of their landholding yet.
> 
> ...




Sorry Abyss, I must have been typing while you were posting.  Indeed, a little sleeping giant here IMO.  News should be enough to keep you at the top of the ladder this month I'd say.  Hope they get right into that first reserve certification, then this little one might become all that much bigger.  Perhaps she'll be supplying NSW with power one day hey?  Exporting to Asia would be the more lucrative option though.....


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## TheAbyss (28 May 2008)

Nice to see that we agree on what the future of PES holds Grace. Interesting trading pattern eventuating at the moment. Somoene decided they just wanted back in. Sellers have thinned right out again.


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## livetoexcess (1 June 2008)

Have been loving the run on this little beauty - the question is just how much further does it have to go!!??


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## livetoexcess (2 June 2008)

Is the amazing run for pure energy looking likely to continue on further this week??!!

Let's hope so!


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## TheAbyss (2 June 2008)

I'll bite Livetoexcess, you are either fising or seeking some confirmation on what you believe.

Take a look at the attached article in The Australian.

Thise with reserves will get bought quickly and those with prospects will get sequity partners or bought out.

PES are looking at going further today if you can believe buy sell depth. I just wish that this all happened a bit further down the track after PES had proven more resources.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23785524-5012439,00.html


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## grace (2 June 2008)

On the back of the Shell/Arrow deal, and Arrow's involvement in PES (both as a substancial holder and farm-ins), I doubled my holdings in PES shortly after open this morning.  These are long term holdings.

Would have been a bit cheaper a few weeks ago, but at the moment, we are in the great land grab for coal seam gas acreage, and PES is prime for picking.

I still suspect that PES will merge with Arrow.  I also hope it doesn't happen for a long time, but suspect it will be sooner rather than later.  

I must admit, I would have loved to have seen Woodside get involved in CSG on this side of the country, instead of all of this foreign money coming in.  Just more Australian shareholders in Woodside than Shell I suspect (although Shell own 34% in Woodside anyway, so it's all becoming so foreign anyway!).

Would actually be good for PES to do a bit of consolidation at these levels!


----------



## kingbrown (2 June 2008)

I have been a fan of PES for quite some time 
Have been in and out of PES countless times 
I thought i did well taking the money and running at 1.80 

Just a note :
Be carefull as this stocks turnover  
can dry up in an instant once the hype dies down

Good luck though 

GO GAS GO !


----------



## livetoexcess (4 June 2008)

pes has seemed to have had its run for the moment - will most probably drop back a bit as profit taking commences, before next possible nice run in a couple of months once resources are proven - i'll might roll over into oxr


----------



## grace (5 June 2008)

Seems our substancial holder Mathews Fund is quite a believer in the coal seam gas story, and has a good track record for performance!

New increase in holdings notice out today for Matthews for pure as well today.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Secret-billionaire-FB36Z?OpenDocument


----------



## grace (10 June 2008)

Pure holding up nicely today, and time for some well earned consolidation.

$2.12 seems to be holding as resistance at present.

I'm wondering when Arrow might make a move on this one, seeing as QGC seem to be on the prowl.  Arrow hold a blocking stake in Pure for new readers.  I'm hoping Pure get to drill up quite a bit, including Tassie before it all happens.


----------



## Dukey (10 June 2008)

No announcements on tassie since last year if i'm not mistaken... dunno why.  An update on progress there would be good.


----------



## grace (24 June 2008)

Well, our big buyer is back.  Is it Mathews, or someone else?  Mathews is very close to 20% already, so it could be someone else.  Volume over 500 000 already today.


----------



## grace (25 June 2008)

Announcement just out - contingent resources of 2000 PJ.  Excellent news.  Worth a read.  Nice thick coal intersections of 30metres, good permeability, free flow etc etc.  



> *The Company estimates the 2C Contingent Resource in the above permits, which constitute approximately 5% of its total Queensland acreage, to be in excess of 2000 PJ*.
> 
> Pure Energy is now in an exciting phase of its development as it moves towards reserve certification, and subsequent transition as a coal seam gas producer.




Nice to see Tassie mentioned too!

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080625/pdf/00854152.pdf


----------



## Dukey (25 June 2008)

Yep - Nice move up yesterday... and now announcements of $15M cap raising to fund reserves certification plans. (Issue of almost 9Mill shares @ $1.70)
Followed by announcement of >30m of walloon coals in holes Cameron 4 & 5.

All looking up from here for PES I think.

Interesting to note how the SP fell from around $2.60 right back down to very near what would turn out to be the negotiated issue price. ($1.70).  Seems some folk maybe knew what was being planned... same thing happened to LNC quite suddenly before the recent cap raising.

Is it legal/ethical trading??? >>> dunno.,  but certainly something to keep in mind when unexplained significant sp changes happen.


----------



## Dukey (25 June 2008)

grace said:


> Announcement just out - contingent resources of 2000 PJ.  Excellent news.  Worth a read.  Nice thick coal intersections of 30metres, good permeability, free flow etc etc.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Ahahhh  - great minds do think alike .  Writing at the same time.
I want more PES... but no spare $$$ 

and 2000PJ .... nice target !!


----------



## grace (15 July 2008)

PES going through a correction like everything, but not as bad as the banks.

Most of the csg'ers are up today.

90 mill shares x $1.50 = $135 mill Market cap

Contingent resources of 2000 PJ (on 5% of acreage)

Worth $1 mill per PJ on base case takeover prices, if they can prove that up from 2C.  I'm pretty confident that they will.

If I was Arrow Energy (already holding a blocking stake), I would be getting my cheque book out now.  Only going to get more and more expensive as this little explorer moves forward.

Looks very cheap to me on those figures.  As QGC makes a move on RPM, before any reserves certification, my guess is that Arrow would be thinking the same.  

There is still a bit of activity going on in the industry too with AGL spreading their wings.  Wonder who will be next?


----------



## woltage (20 July 2008)

Does anyone know who the top 20 shareholders of PES are? Nothing available on their website

Just did a quick comparison (PJ/MC) between PES, BUL, GPP and ICN

BUL = 21284 PJ/107 Mill = 198 (top 20 - 75%)
Where estimates are P50 and their Galilee tenement holds the majority (15250PJ). Drill results are lame compared to PES though ~5m coal intercepts with little info on permeability, m3/tonne etc. Are people comfortable with how they've come to their P50 estimates?

PES = 13244 PJ/107 Mill = 123 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates (although ATP889 is P50). Good drill results (20-35m coal intercepts) with details on permeability and gas volume for each drill

ICN = 9000 PJ/72 Mill = 125 (Top 20 - ?%)
Using 2C estimates

GPP = 1630 PJ/6 Mill = 271 (Top 20 - 77%)
Using 2C estimates

My first (quick) effort to evaluate/compare the CSM players around atm, hope to do the remainder asap, feedback appreciated 

Matthews Capital Partners also hold a significant percentage of Renison (RSN) (~20% I think) Anyone have an opinion of them?


----------



## grace (20 July 2008)

woltage said:


> Does anyone know who the top 20 shareholders of PES are? Nothing available on their website
> 
> Just did a quick comparison (PJ/MC) between PES, BUL, GPP and ICN
> 
> ...




Hi, you should do this analysis on the coal seam methane thread where you will find other contributers.  Just a good place to keep it.  Perhaps you could copy your post here over to that thread. 

PES - top 20 I don't have but I know AOE own about 12.5%, and Mathews have recently topped up to nearly 20%.  Top 20 should be a fairly solid number, as this is certainly a very illiquid stock.

My preferred one of those you mention is PES, and I guess if you look through this thread, you will see the reasons why.  Galilee basin is new country for csg, so it will be interesting to see how that goes. 

Personally, I am wary of large GIP figures until I see some quality drill results! 

Cheers Grace


----------



## woltage (21 July 2008)

grace said:


> Hi, you should do this analysis on the coal seam methane thread where you will find other contributers.  Just a good place to keep it.  Perhaps you could copy your post here over to that thread.
> 
> PES - top 20 I don't have but I know AOE own about 12.5%, and Mathews have recently topped up to nearly 20%.  Top 20 should be a fairly solid number, as this is certainly a very illiquid stock.
> 
> ...




Thanks Grace  I might post in the CSM thread when I have more substantial info. I feel the most confident with PES as well, for BUL, if their Galilee tenements are removed their ratio drops to around 58. From what I could gather their estimates for Galilee were mostly based on the drill results of (I think they're called) Galilee Energy. Although, I also recall reading of plans for a LNG plant being built in the Galilee basin

Holding PES, ESG, BUL, RSN

Cheers,
Woltage


----------



## Trader Paul (21 July 2008)

Hi Woltage,

Extending on your analysis of the stocks mentioned, here's
a look at WHEN they are expected to be strongest and
weakest over the coming months, according to some 
time cycle analysis ... 

have a great day

   paul





woltage said:


> Does anyone know who the top 20 shareholders of PES are? Nothing available on their website
> 
> Just did a quick comparison (PJ/MC) between PES, BUL, GPP and ICN
> 
> ...






=====


----------



## grace (30 July 2008)

A big buyer back again.  How do they think that they are going to get 100k to 150k in quantity in one order?  Or are they in fact over the other side selling at the moment?  It will be interesting to watch those buy orders.  Doesn't take much for this one to go up, so it is quite hard to take a large position, unless it is all prearranged.


----------



## ColB (30 July 2008)

> A big buyer back again. How do they think that they are going to get 100k to 150k in quantity in one order? Or are they in fact over the other side selling at the moment?




Looks like a buyer Grace!  Another order for 150,000 @ $1.45 sitting in the queue.  Be interesting to see what announcement may just be around the corner.


----------



## grace (31 July 2008)

From the quarterly just out, there is quite a bit of activity coming up over this quarter, and it will be interesting to see how Tassie drills up next month.  As there have been methane explosions in the past, I'm guessing it could be quite successful.



> Planned activity for the September 2008 Quarter.
> 
> • Install pumping equipment on ATP806P - Dingonose-1 and commence well testing to determine flow capacity.
> 
> ...


----------



## grace (6 August 2008)

Drilling of Dingonose 12 has confirmed that the Dingonose field extends into ATP758P.  That is good news.

Dingonose/Duckworth 2C of 800PJ.



> About the Dingonose Discovery
> 
> The Company has now commenced its 2P reserve certification on the Dingonose CSG discovery in permits ATP806P and ATP758P. Drilling and testing in 2007 indicated high gas content, good to high permeability-thickness, and sufficient areal extent, which are the key ingredients for a commercially viable CSG development.
> 
> ...






> Highlights
> 
> Dingonose-12
> • Coring of the Dingonose-12 on ATP758P is now well underway and results to date have confirmed the ATP806P Dingonose CSG field previously discovered by the Company also extends into this permit.
> ...


----------



## Dukey (6 August 2008)

Good news indeed - PES is looking better all the time...

this news possibly also indicates that their large tenement to the immediate north will also come up trumps - so the figures stated could be higher if that turns out to be the case....

------------
Glad to be back working at the moment to keep my mind off the market turmoil & save myself from stupid reactions !!  CSGers have certainly taken some hits with the POO dropping () - but longer term nothing has changed for the energy sector - there will be fluctuations, but overall trends should be higher i think...

happy to sit tight and maybe pickup some more bargains as they come to light.
AJL holding up nicely recently too grace.
-e


----------



## grace (20 August 2008)

One by one, these csg'ers are being taken out.  I think this one will be taken out too....just a matter of when. 

In the meantime, a new substancial holder appears with 5.12% (3 721 538).

Whose been selling that many shares?  The notice says on market.  

Anyway, they just get more and more illiquid.  My options I hold even more so.  Be patient everyone, the writing is on the wall with this one IMO.

Actually, I'd hate to part with these at this point in time.   Too early in development at this stage.


----------



## ColB (20 August 2008)

*Originally posted by Grace 30th July 2008*


> A big buyer back again. How do they think that they are going to get 100k to 150k in quantity in one order? Or are they in fact over the other side selling at the moment? It will be interesting to watch those buy orders. Doesn't take much for this one to go up, so it is quite hard to take a large position, unless it is all prearranged






> Whose been selling that many shares? The notice says on market.




Your earlier post might explain some of it Grace.  I have very few in the green at the moment but at least this is one of them.  I suppose I'll have to wait for the takeover!   Maybe LNC might like their holdings.


----------



## grace (8 September 2008)

Sell column getting taken out today as we speak.  Looks ready for a little run I think.  Now that BG have missed the boat on origin, they'll be looking for some more gas!

Hope they stay away from this one  -   plenty of growth still to go here.


----------



## grace (9 October 2008)

I have been watching the very large transactions over the last few days off market.  Mathews selling  a lot of shares to arrow energy @$1.40.

Wonder when Arrow are going to make their move on pure.  I guess when their share price looks better perhaps.  Any thoughts?


----------



## basilio (10 October 2008)

Well Grace perhaps the longer they wait the cheaper it will become. But which company has the capacity to make a takeover now? I would have thought there is still significant unwinding of the market to come.


----------



## grace (12 October 2008)

basilio said:


> Well Grace perhaps the longer they wait the cheaper it will become. But which company has the capacity to make a takeover now? I would have thought there is still significant unwinding of the market to come.




Anyone notice Shell sneak in and buy 14.88% of Pure Energy.  With Arrow owning around 15% as well.......I wonder what is going to happen here.

Actually, this is really disappointing timing as Pure has only just started to drill on 5% of their holdings, which is over 2000 PJ contingent resources and climbing.

Shame that Arrow and Shell are going to get more upside than us Pure holders will get.  We will just get Arrow shares I'm sure.  I see more growth in us holders staying in Pure, than being taken over, and lumped into something larger.

At what price is the big question I guess?


----------



## Dukey (12 October 2008)

NNNooooooooooooooo!!!

No takeovers... tell them to go away Grace!

We want PES potential all to ourselves!!   Has anyone announced their intentions? ... maybe just a strategic stake?

-D


----------



## basilio (28 October 2008)

BIG 30% jump today on PES. Does this look like another take out of gas reserves following the BG action on QGC? And if so will the shareholders see any sort of reasonable price?


----------



## greedywolf (29 October 2008)

hey everyone,

I hate to be the one to pessimistic  but i dont think PES will make it to next christmas.   Have a feeling that once some reserves are proved up, which they are aiming for by the end of the financial year, AOE will make its move.   They haven't built a stake in the company to sell at a later date for a few dollars.   Same goes for Shell, the only reason Shell got in was so AOE wouldn't breach the mandatory takeover provision in the Corps Act.   Just a matter of timing now, once some reserves are proved up AOE will buy the stake off Shell then launch a bid for the rest of the company, after which Shell will probably launch a bid for AOE, either way PES shareholders will lose out on the full potential of the company which is sad!

DYOR!!!


----------



## TheAbyss (4 November 2008)

Director buying $300 k worth of shares at market is a very healthy sign indeed. The share price is rebounding nicely after Matthews capital sell of recently.

Primeau was already the largest shareholder before he jumped in for another 240,000 units.

Something in the wind sooner or later i suspect. Just hope they get very busy proving up resources in the interim.


----------



## grace (16 November 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Director buying $300 k worth of shares at market is a very healthy sign indeed. The share price is rebounding nicely after Matthews capital sell of recently.
> 
> Primeau was already the largest shareholder before he jumped in for another 240,000 units.
> 
> Something in the wind sooner or later i suspect. Just hope they get very busy proving up resources in the interim.




A rather large transaction going through on Friday.  Wonder who upped their holding - Arrow or Shell I suspect.

Time to convert those options over too I think.  Uptrend on the chart too.

Directors increasing their holdings.  One director resigns from PES and remains on AOE board.....keep independant???  Way too many things have happened which all point to one thing........


----------



## grace (23 November 2008)

Not a bad result at all on Camereron 26.  This seems to be up there with Qld Gas on flow rates.  Flow rate of 750 mcfd is 0.77TJ/d.



> Queensland Permit ATP852P
> Cameron Field CSG Certification Campaign
> Highlights
> 
> ...




Plenty of reserves certification coming through in 2009 (early, mid on different acreages).

Let's hope she avoids a takeover in the short-term to prove up some 2P!


----------



## grace (23 November 2008)

Here is Cameron 26 flowing.  There is my little bit of pumping of the stock, and that should be 100 characters...


----------



## grace (23 November 2008)

Here is cameron 26 in ATP852P.  See how QGC and Sunshine Gas (also QGC) and now all BG are next door.

Wouldn't it be nice for a bidding war over our little PES to take place.  I can only dream a little.....


----------



## basilio (24 November 2008)

What a shameless little huckster you are Grace  !!

Don't tell me we are reduced to selling ourselves to the highest bidder  and just hoping someone will  have a few coins left in the piggy bank..... (But then QGC was the only light  in the tunnel that wasn't a train in the last few months)


----------



## grace (24 November 2008)

basilio said:


> What a shameless little huckster you are Grace  !!
> 
> Don't tell me we are reduced to selling ourselves to the highest bidder  and just hoping someone will  have a few coins left in the piggy bank..... (But then QGC was the only light  in the tunnel that wasn't a train in the last few months)




I think an Arrow/Shell takeover will happen unfortunately.  Would love someone else to give them a run for their money tho'

Have sent in my money to convert all of my options.  

Shareholders just love cash in this climate.  I took mine quickly on QGC after complaining bitterly at first.  PES can and will be taken out sooooo cheaply.


----------



## grace (27 November 2008)

grace said:


> More good news from the last drill.  Contingent resources of 975PJ on ATP852.  Prove that up, and just on that small area alone, we have a market cap of $1billion expected.
> 
> 83mill shares
> x $1.45 = $120 million
> ...




Looking back at this old calculation, $1million per PJ.

Reserves certification
ATP852P  =  1241PJ of 3P (initial estimate of 975PJ of 2C)

ATP758P  =  800PJ of 2C

This is 2041PJ on only 2 titles (about 5% of holdings).

Expect they might have more gas than QLD Gas one day which sold for what, $5.5 billion  (7000 odd PJ from memory).

Now, 2000 odd PJ of 2P should be worth upwards of $1.5billion (and only on 5% of their ground).  3P is quite easy to convert to 2P in relation to coal seam gas.

Market cap 125mill shares (fully diluted) x $1.70
$212 million

Cheap as chips for the hawks circling!

Coversion of o/s options should give some more to kitty.  We have enough for 2009 drilling.  

I need a gun to shoot the hawks!


----------



## grace (29 November 2008)

grace said:


> Looking back at this old calculation, $1million per PJ.
> 
> Reserves certification
> ATP852P  =  1241PJ of 3P (initial estimate of 975PJ of 2C)
> ...




It seems I forgot a bit of acreage there......  Here is some of the address at AGM..



> In August 2007, the Company was named preferred bidder for application permits ATP’s 889P(A) and 965P(A). Permit ATP889P(A) greatly enhances the Company’s position in the Walloon CSG Play Fairway, proven to be productive for CSG. The Stella block of this permit lies within 3km of both the Coxon Creek and Lacerta CSG fields.
> 
> The Group estimates the 2C* Contingent Resource in the above three CSG permits (including application permit ATP889P(A)), all of which constitute approximately 5% of Pure Energy’s total Queensland acreage, to be in excess of 2000PJ.




So my previous total  2041 PJ, plus 2000 PJ on these above.



> The Company is currently working on converting this large 3P reserve base into 2P reserves, and an announcement to the market detailing what proportion of this volume has been converted is expected early in the New Year.
> 
> Concurrently, we are embarking on a 3P reserve certification campaign on ATP806P and are compiling the relevant information required for certification purposes. This process is expected to occur before years’ end, and possible certification of initial reserves is also expected in early 2009.




There is a really big probability of proving up some 5000 PJ by the end of next year in my opinion.

Think what that would be worth.

PES is of interest to many.....if only Arrow/Shell didn't own close to 30%.


----------



## grace (29 November 2008)

Take this as gossip from hc if you wish (from someone who went to the agm)..



> Mr Terry Primeau and 2 of his 'associates' hold roughly 20% of the issued share capital (I find this interesting because when asked whether PES was going to be taken over Mr Primeau answered by stating the percentage held by him and his associates and then went on to say that he would make sure that PES shareholders got a good deal (or something to that effect). I would of thought he would of answered the question with the old "At this stage the company is not aware of any parties that would be interested in launching a takeover for the company"
> 
> One final observation, one shareholder did the maths and made the comment that the company was worth at least $6 a share with 1200 odd PJ of 3P, to which Mr Primeau agreed




Take it as gossip.....but if that is what was said.....then it kind of confirms what we have all been posting on this site.


----------



## grace (1 December 2008)

Own up now, who has been buying up on this little one of late?

Is it you Abyss after cashing in your QGC shares?  You're just trying to win the stock competition now aren't you....

Who is it?  I'm really intrigued.  Own up now!

I'm tempted to take a few more on myself.  Saving my coins up for more pure bliss.


----------



## TheAbyss (2 December 2008)

Not me Grace. I have been buying between $1.10 and $1.50 so nothing from me lately. Really do like this one though. Cant add anying to what you have already posted other than i agree whole heartedly.


----------



## basilio (2 December 2008)

Don't know (obviously..) who is punting on PES..  

BUT it should only be good for the shareholders.  One would think that as the price goes up shareholders won't be tempted to take ridiculous offers for the shares and that some sort of respectable price was put on the table.

Lets hope so. Today doesn't look so good


----------



## TheAbyss (2 December 2008)

oil going down 9% will cause PES to retreat on low volumes. usually holds up ok and bounces back pretty quick. Buy the dips as they say and today will present another opportunity


----------



## grace (2 December 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> oil going down 9% will cause PES to retreat on low volumes. usually holds up ok and bounces back pretty quick. Buy the dips as they say and today will present another opportunity




Not down today on a bad day.....here is the chart which looks rather encouraging.  Hope $2 holds.  This one is so illiquid.  Haven't topped up yet though.


----------



## grace (4 December 2008)

Turnover of shares seems to be fairly high these days.

Anyway, with options expiring very soon, Arrow will convert 9 million to shares no doubt.

Here's how it will look

AOE  shares  15.85
AOE options   9.0

AOE will hold 24.85 mill PES shares by 31/12/08.  That is 19.9% of fully paid on 31/12/08.

Shell holds 15%

35% between them


----------



## Dukey (4 December 2008)

Hi grace - havn't been around much on ASF lately but PES sure is looking the goods.
Actually its one of the few stocks I can think of looking the goods just now so imagine what sp would have been like by now in a better market!
The recent steep rises in this dodgy climate are very intrigueing
my punts - either ex-QGC punters getting on the next best  CSG stock.
OR
- folks getting in on expectations of a quick gain via t/o by AOE or Shell JV.
OR Both!

Either way - more reserves proving up = good!
- V.few sellers/many buyers in this market = good!
+ - Oil won't be dirt cheap forever!

 - Number of PES shares I own = not enough! 

good luck all holders .... and everyone else... what the heck - it's nearly christmas! 
-D


----------



## basilio (12 December 2008)

Just can't believe this.....Amongst the desert of fried up weeds one of my shares is actually showing green leaves and shoots !!

Go PES


----------



## Dukey (17 December 2008)

Yes - awesome and getting better basilio...

ATP852p confirmed 2P resources of 394 PJ.

This is a bigger tenement just north of QGC's ATP651P - which they say has 264? 2P reserves.

Plus plenty of other PES tenements to come.

It's all good...(except for just about every other stock I ever looked at!)

Keep your eye on WCL too... could be the next PES and very tightly held. I'll be loking closer at this one in coming weeks/months.
g'juck all - D


----------



## grace (18 December 2008)

Time to have another look at the chart as she smashes through a previous high to make a new one, and finishes close to it.

I call PES a female because the stock behaves so well.

Looks good for Abyss and the December stock comp!


----------



## grace (20 December 2008)

When I can, I listen to ABC radio Southern QLD 8.30am Saturday morning, while I read the paper.

Each Saturday they have a financial planner from Toowoomba on to take the questions from the callers.

Often "Ash" from Injune calls and asks about a coal seam gas favourite....many discussions often on linc, carbon energy and so on.

Today, a new caller asked about Pure Energy and the recent rise in share price, to which the financial planner said "I have never heard of them". 

This surprised me somewhat, seeing as I know these locals are up with their coal seam gas stocks.

Anyway, as that was the last "Saturday morning for the year", the planner said he would put an answer on Wednesday morning at 6.55am when he does his morning finance section before the 7am news.

Geez I hope he doesn't give it too much of a push......I took some profits this week.


----------



## grace (22 December 2008)

Here we go folks - trading halt today with announcement of takeover offer from Arrow Energy.  Don't let her go too cheap for goodness sake!


----------



## Jimminy (22 December 2008)

well done Grace & co....

$5.40 / share. (to include 1.21 AOE shares)

Not a bad effort at all. I am very jealous considering I looked at the stock several times in 2007.....very very jealous.


----------



## Sean K (22 December 2008)

Up 300% the past 2 months.

The resource upgrades didn't warrant it, imo.

No please explains issued.

Some family and friends have made a nice little stag profit.

Disappointed I wasn't watching more closely.


----------



## Jimminy (22 December 2008)

grace said:


> Geez I hope he doesn't give it too much of a push......I took some profits this week.




Ouch, a bitter sweet feeling no doubt.... I'm sure you made plenty though!

That broker was probably Mr Doherty was it at Dornbusch?


----------



## agro (22 December 2008)

grace said:


> When I can, I listen to ABC radio Southern QLD 8.30am Saturday morning, while I read the paper.
> 
> Each Saturday they have a financial planner from Toowoomba on to take the questions from the callers.
> 
> ...




often one thinks whether it is to do with coincidence or they know something!

doesnt it make u think?


----------



## beerwm (22 December 2008)

Hi

Im a small holder in PES

Newbie Trader,

Can someone tell me how a takeover works?

what is this 5.40 price? the stock is only at 4.70 now?

thanks


----------



## TheAbyss (22 December 2008)

beerwm said:


> Hi
> 
> Im a small holder in PES
> 
> ...




PES holders all get to make some money. $2.70 per PES share you own plus 1.21 AOE shares (currently valued at $2.01 per share) so approximate value is $2.70 + $2.40 = $5.10 per share. Hold on and wait for your money or sell early and take your profits if you need the cash sooner.

Not sure why PES is still only at $4.70 unless you expect AOE to fall by a a margin equal to the difference.

Good job and pity i sold out of PES to soon but there you go.


----------



## Sean K (22 December 2008)

beerwm said:


> Hi
> 
> Im a small holder in PES
> 
> ...



If it's lower than the offer price it means the market is factoring in a fall in price of the vulture, or the TO will not go ahead. 

If it's higher then the market is usually factoring in competition and a bidding war.

You can now either sell on market, or you will be sent documents to accept the offer and you will become a shareholder in AOE.


----------



## beerwm (22 December 2008)

Ahh gotcha, that makes alot of sense

Thanks for the speedy response guys,

nicely explained. TheAbyss,Kennas


----------



## gav (22 December 2008)

kennas said:


> If it's lower than the offer price it means the market is factoring in a fall in price of the vulture, or the TO will not go ahead.
> 
> If it's higher then the market is usually factoring in competition and a bidding war.




I dont understand, havent they already agreed on the take over? So this would mean ppl assume AOE to drop significantly?  Does this mean that AOE will go into trading halt when shares are issued (and monies paid) to PES holders, and will open alot lower? (15% lower going by PES and AOE's current share prices) If this is so, then why is AOE still at $2.08 and has more buyers than sellers?


----------



## grace (22 December 2008)

kennas said:


> Up 300% the past 2 months.
> 
> The resource upgrades didn't warrant it, imo.
> 
> ...




It wasn't rocket science to work out the takeover bid was coming.  Even I could put it together,and I'm no rocket scientist.  When Shell snuck in with their holding, it was all over red rover.

I still hold 2/3 of my holding....sold 1/3 on Friday......timing is every thing isn't it.

I was hoping for more than the offer!


----------



## beerwm (22 December 2008)

just reading the key conditions;

are any of these a threat to the Takeover?

minimum 90% acceptance,
ASX200 not clsing below 3070 for 3 consecutive days

your thoughts?


----------



## basilio (22 December 2008)

_And so this is Christmas, and what have you done ?_

Well done Grace. I jumped onto PES a few months ago after reviewing your excellent analysis.  And your  little kick alongs  along the way didn't hurt. 
Particularly appreciated your conversation with the PES director recently which you posted on the Forum.

By the way are there any thoughts about Arrow Energies future ? 

Have a great Christmas everyone - particularly if you held a few of these little flowers.

Cheers


_Yes PES did deserve a better price. Perhaps there is an argument that the synergies of the takeover will improve AOE and that we gain the extra value in the AOE shares in futures years._...


----------



## chops_a_must (22 December 2008)

kennas said:


> Up 300% the past 2 months.
> 
> The resource upgrades didn't warrant it, imo.
> 
> ...



This is one I recommended many moons ago, as AOE already owned a fair chunk.

They have some absolutely awesome acreage... but I already own a whole heap of AOE, and didn't want double exposure...


----------



## Dukey (22 December 2008)

grace said:


> It wasn't rocket science to work out the takeover bid was coming.  Even I could put it together,and I'm no rocket scientist.  When Shell snuck in with their holding, it was all over red rover.
> 
> I still hold 2/3 of my holding....sold 1/3 on Friday......timing is every thing isn't it.
> 
> I was hoping for more than the offer!




Oh Grace!! - bad luck about selling a few the other week!! hopefully 2/3 is plenty!

To be honest I havn't been watching closely lately but it's been obvious that something was in the wind.   My only pain is that I didn't act all those times when I said I needed more of these... (and the CGT - after QGC and all!! :-((((  ) - but a lovely big profit on the small parcel I've had since the early days.

the Big question now is... *which mini-coal seamer will be next cab off the  rank ??   BUL ??   WCL ?? someone else I don't know about?... any opinions folks?*

And - regarding AOE for basilio - I think their prospects are fantastic with serious CSG exposure in many SE-Asian countries. Might take a while for it all to come to fruition ... but when it does look out!
g'luck all - nice to have big winner in these uncertain times init!!??

-D


----------



## grace (22 December 2008)

Dukey said:


> Oh Grace!! - bad luck about selling a few the other week!! hopefully 2/3 is plenty!
> 
> To be honest I havn't been watching closely lately but it's been obvious that something was in the wind.   My only pain is that I didn't act all those times when I said I needed more of these... (and the CGT - after QGC and all!! :-((((  ) - but a lovely big profit on the small parcel I've had since the early days.
> 
> ...




Dukey, next one I think will be esg in NSW.  Just a gut feeling.  Let's see what the future holds.....

The other thought that crossed my mind....could Arrow be a takeover target too one day?


----------



## joeyjoejoe (22 December 2008)

i didnt miss this one today.. but i sure as hell missed the boat.... damn why wasnt i watching this thread two months ago..... i must admit i had at look at it in october very briefly and thought that looks alright, but then never did anything about it.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 December 2008)

grace said:


> Dukey, next one I think will be esg in NSW.  Just a gut feeling.  Let's see what the future holds.....
> 
> The other thought that crossed my mind....could Arrow be a takeover target too one day?




Of course it is, but I don't want it to be. Shell owns 30%.

I have a heap as free carried from trading them.

Maybe, someday, they will make me rich...

But ESG is definitely the next one. Have free carries in them as well, although not nearly as much. They are breaking out also...

But ESG still offers the most upside out of all of these from the rough calcs I've done over the last nearly 2 years now. Nearly that long hey?


----------



## grace (23 December 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Of course it is, but I don't want it to be. Shell owns 30%.
> 
> I have a heap as free carried from trading them.
> 
> ...




Yes chops, I see you have been around these threads a long time, and I recall the first calcs on MV compared to certified resources done by you ages back.

Molopo and Sydney Gas are there looking like targets as well.  I'm not holding any of those, but hold plenty of esg from the 22 cent mark upwards (if memory serves me right).

Have a bit of cash from QGC and PES sales last week, so looking for a place to park that.

Think I'll add to my Arrow holding for the long term with the takeover of PES rather than selling on market.


----------



## Trader Paul (23 December 2008)

Hi folks,

PES ..... looking at some time cycle analysis, December 2008 looks like it will
remain strong, but January 2009 may not be the smoothest ride for PES ... :

            23122008 ..... positive spotlight on PES

            29122008 ..... positive cycle may be the final explosive upmove for PES

            02012009 ..... negative news expected here.

            04012009 ..... minor and positive cycle in play.

       08-14012009 ..... BIG time negative cycle expected here

       20-21012009 ..... more news, brings a negative focus on PES

           05022009 ..... minor cycle

           06022009 ..... another negative cycle expected here.

           16022009 ..... more negative news ... ???

           20022009 ..... minor and positive cycle 

  March 2009 looks more positive for PES ..... 

have a great  day                

    paul



=====


----------



## Logique (2 January 2009)

Two points of view from earlier in this thread. A confusing business! Greedywolf's overall scenario has a chance of playing out, certainly greedywolf was right (so far) about the "taking out" of PES by AOE.  

On the other hand I see no great encouragement in Trader Paul's astrology predictions, or in his for AOE, unless I'm reading it all wrong. Trader Paul is big on the resurgence of the POO (Price of Oil) in 2009, so this should help energy stocks generally.



> Trader Paul on 21 July:
> PES ... August 2008 ... 3 significant and positive cycles
> 
> September/October 2008 ... 3 significant and negative cycles expected
> ...







> greedywolf on 29 October:
> hey everyone,
> I hate to be the one to pessimistic but i dont think PES will make it to next christmas. Have a feeling that once some reserves are proved up, which they are aiming for by the end of the financial year, AOE will make its move. They haven't built a stake in the company to sell at a later date for a few dollars. Same goes for Shell, the only reason Shell got in was so AOE wouldn't breach the mandatory takeover provision in the Corps Act. Just a matter of timing now, once some reserves are proved up AOE will buy the stake off Shell then launch a bid for the rest of the company, after which Shell will probably launch a bid for AOE, either way PES shareholders will lose out on the full potential of the company which is sad!
> 
> DYOR!!!


----------



## basilio (17 January 2009)

Well PES is now around $5.00 after bouncing up to $5.50.  

Does anyway have any thoughts on  taking the money now rather than selling through the takeover? (Assuming it isn't withdrawn.)  It seems that as AOE falls PES also falls - which makes sense given the takeover is effectively half AOE stock.  

Any ideas?


----------



## grace (17 January 2009)

basilio said:


> Well PES is now around $5.00 after bouncing up to $5.50.
> 
> Does anyway have any thoughts on  taking the money now rather than selling through the takeover? (Assuming it isn't withdrawn.)  It seems that as AOE falls PES also falls - which makes sense given the takeover is effectively half AOE stock.
> 
> Any ideas?




You would sell if you thought Arrow will continue lower.  Pure is following its movements.  Depends on the rest of the market.

Other thing to consider is CGT.  It has no bearing on me as I exercised options and won't get one year anyway.


----------



## beerwm (17 January 2009)

there has been about a 20c-50c premium on the PES shares in comparison to AOE takeover price.

something to consider.

AOE would need to be $1.90 for $5.00 to be the final takeover offer price.

can someone explain to me CGT in terms of this takeover? is there any difference.


----------



## Dukey (22 January 2009)

Well... another 1231PJ of 3P resources for PES - it aint half easy to see why AOE couldn't wait any longer.... with the quality of PES' other tenements - their total resources alone could be much larger again. 

Obviously AOE got a bargain - but at least we (PES holders) will get some AOE shares to get our bite of the cherry.... + some realised $$$ from the T/O.

I honestly think CSG/CSM is the only place to be in this market turmoil.... at least for the time being...everything else I look at is f'ing scary!!!!!!!!!
-E


----------



## grace (28 January 2009)

Dukey said:


> Well... another 1231PJ of 3P resources for PES - it aint half easy to see why AOE couldn't wait any longer.... with the quality of PES' other tenements - their total resources alone could be much larger again.
> 
> Obviously AOE got a bargain - but at least we (PES holders) will get some AOE shares to get our bite of the cherry.... + some realised $$$ from the T/O.
> 
> ...




Yes Dukey, a special little one this was.  I thought 5000 PJ by the end of 2009, and I see that in their contingent reserves now.  It would have eventually been a fairytale end even if left alone.  I still hold Pure, I guess for the upside in Arrow, can't bring myself to sell on-market for some reason.  Perhaps holders won't accept and they might have to offer more.  Nice thought.


----------



## basilio (9 February 2009)

> Yes Dukey, a special little one this was. I thought 5000 PJ by the end of 2009, and I see that in their contingent reserves now. It would have eventually been a fairytale end even if left alone. I still hold Pure, I guess for the upside in Arrow, can't bring myself to sell on-market for some reason. Perhaps holders won't accept and they might have to offer more. Nice thought.




* Feb  9th BG offers $6.40  cash for PES*

Nice piece of oracling Grace.. PES always looked absurdly cheap given the proven reserves. Just great that there will finally be a more realistic price paid for the resources. And I'm not unhappy I waited..... Yippee!!!


----------



## grace (9 February 2009)

basilio said:


> * Feb  9th BG offers $6.40  cash for PES*
> 
> Nice piece of oracling Grace.. PES always looked absurdly cheap given the proven reserves. Just great that there will finally be a more realistic price paid for the resources. And I'm not unhappy I waited..... Yippee!!!




Hello basilio.  I noticed the Director (the major shareholder) buying a few more on market last week.  I thought to myself, I'm not going to part with mine just yet if he is still buying on market.  Did he know something?  I think so.


----------



## Dukey (9 February 2009)

grace said:


> Hello basilio.  I noticed the Director (the major shareholder) buying a few more on market last week.  I thought to myself, I'm not going to part with mine just yet if he is still buying on market.  Did he know something?  I think so.




Holy cow!!
- must admit I had figured it was pretty much all done and dusted, and at first view just now i thought BG must be wanting to eat AOE... but they want PES!!... lets hope a resulting bidding war kicks the price up a few rungs.

any ideas on how this thing is gonna play out??... I can't see AOE being at all happy to let PES go as it seems they've been planning on swallowing them since they spun PES off years back.... if they let PES go they might well find themselves short of gas for LNG and other developments down the track...
??

VERY interesting times indeed!!
-e


----------



## beerwm (9 February 2009)

This really was a nice suprise this morning 

its still a bargain though in my opinion

should be fetching closer to $8- $10 on current prices. Not considering the excellent location in respect to AOE and BG tenements.

I do hope AOE comes back with a strong offer, i'd like to sell my shares to them.

Interesting times indeed dukey


----------



## grace (9 February 2009)

This is worth a read, on Business Spectator tonight.

"Shells last chance"

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Shells-last-chance-$pd20090209-P48KQ?OpenDocument&src=sph


----------



## basilio (11 February 2009)

Game on.. Arrow has upped the offer to $3.00 plus 1.57 AOE shares for each PES shares. *Value is stated as $7.16.*

More significantly they have abandoned the 90% minimum (wonder why  ) and want to roll this up very quickly. They want to start taking shares from tomorrow (Feb 12th)

Thought it was a bit fascinating how they claimed PES offered excellent proven resources and potentially a ton more on the rest of the tenement. So why the scungy initial offer? 

Any thoughts on how high this could go? And do shareholders who don't sell early obtain the final price?


----------



## grace (11 February 2009)

basilio said:


> Game on.. Arrow has upped the offer to $3.00 plus 1.57 AOE shares for each PES shares. *Value is stated as $7.16.*
> 
> More significantly they have abandoned the 90% minimum (wonder why  ) and want to roll this up very quickly. They want to start taking shares from tomorrow (Feb 12th)
> 
> ...




I'm holding tight.  BG are listed as number 8 on the London Stock Exchange by market cap.  I'm not sure about Shell, but they have deep pockets too.  Let's see what happens.....


----------



## Dangerous (11 February 2009)

someone sent me a table they did up in June last year... BG market cap was about $70B and Shell $132B.

Not sure how correct i am, but Shell definately a lot bigger than BG

Shell announced a loss last week i recall....

Bottom line is Shell need to work out their CSG stance asap and BG is bullying them into that so that they can plan for the consolidation process... Let's be serious, there cannot be more than two LNG plants in Gladstone at most


----------



## oldblue (12 February 2009)

Plenty of scenarios left on this but I wonder what the chances are of BG and Shell eventually working together ( with AOE) ?
Would seem to be a preferable outcome for them than trying to drown your opponent in your own blood, which is what the current situation could lead to.
Any history of BG and Shell J/V's?

Disc: Hold AOE.


----------



## basilio (12 February 2009)

> Plenty of scenarios left on this but I wonder what the chances are of BG and Shell eventually working together ( with AOE) ?
> Would seem to be a preferable outcome for them than trying to drown your opponent in your own blood, which is what the current situation could lead to



.

If BG hadn't come onto the scene then PES shareholders would have had a relatively small offer - particularly considering the size of the reserves.

I believe the future will be about  large, environmentally friendly gas reserves and these will command a premium price. Considering the carnage on the sharemarket this year it would be good for shareholders to get a fair price for what will be exceptional gas reserves.


----------



## dirkdiggler444 (12 February 2009)

Would it be fair to say that since todays closing price of PES was $7.35, then people are betting on a counter offer from BG that is higher than the most recent AOE offer of $7.16 ???

incidentally, ($2.530 x 1.57) + $3 = $6.97 on todays close of AOE.

I went to check the price and thought it would be less than $7.16, but its at $7.35.    any other explanation??


----------



## beerwm (12 February 2009)

BG would never of thought they would take PES for $6.40,

considering how important it is to Shell/AOE and the whole gladstone/csg game.

I'd say, they will make an offer in a week, once the AOE share price settles, [ie. i think it might deflate], so when they offer the cash $7.50-$8.00 the $7.16 offer by AOE will be more like $6.80.


----------



## Dukey (12 February 2009)

beerwm said:


> BG would never of thought they would take PES for $6.40,
> 
> considering how important it is to Shell/AOE and the whole gladstone/csg game.
> 
> I'd say, they will make an offer in a week, once the AOE share price settles, [ie. i think it might deflate], so when they offer the cash $7.50-$8.00 the $7.16 offer by AOE will be more like $6.80.




I agree BG would have expected a sh!te fight for PES - they will already have a fair idea of their next offer... but who wants PES more and where it will end is anybodies guess.

offer history
AOE - circa $5 (depending on value of AOE scrip)
BG - $ 6.40
AOE - circa $ 7.16 (so says arrow)
BG - $ ???  << the big ????

One of the problems I see for BG - the more they offer for PES - the greater the implied value for AOE's existing reserves which might help keep AOE price strong.??

Still kicking myself I didn't buy more!!!.
-D


----------



## basilio (13 February 2009)

Came across an early analysis of the AOE takeover offer for PES in one of the stock adviser companies. (let's not embarrass them any further. It's still on line.)



> Arrow Energy (AOE) bid for Pure Resources (PES)
> AOE has launched a part-cash offer of $2.70 plus 1.21 AOE shares for each PES share. AOE trades at $2.61, which values the offer at and PES at $5.86, a substantial premium to PES, which is trading at $5.33. The PES board has recommended the deal, so on balance it's likely this will be the final offer. At this stage, there is no arbitrage opportunity for us to be involved in.




Given the widespread knowledge of 

1) The size and value of PES gas reserves versus the initial AOE offer
2) The interest that other parties would have in such reserves

I'm surprised that professional analysts could get it so wrong. But then thats why we have ASF.


----------



## basilio (16 February 2009)

Just thinking about the AOE/BG takeover offers for PES.

BG is trying to trump AOE with higher cash offers and of course forcing AOE to raise their offer.

However if BG wins then there seems to be no further opportunity to cash in on PES's extensive gas reserves. However if AOE take control then PES shareholders  still have an upside possibility with ongoing improvement in gas reserves and a possible Shell takeover.

Does this make sense?


----------



## oldblue (16 February 2009)

Yes, it's an interesting situation with all sorts of possible outcomes.
A lot depends on how many PES shareholders are tempted by the cash and how much BG will have to pay to satisfy them.
I can't see AOE and Shell giving up their shareholdings so at the very least BG look as though they will have to co-operate with them in some sort of JV or gas sharing arrangement.

Unless BG decides that the game's not worth the candle, of course.


----------



## grace (17 February 2009)

What a darling hey!  At this rate, I might recoup all of my bad trading decisions made for the last 2 years in one go.  How's that for luck.

Still holding and waiting.....


----------



## oldblue (17 February 2009)

And it certainly doesn't look as though AOE are ready to throw in the towel either.
Their current offer is unconditional and they are reviewing the situation. At the very least, they seem determined not to sell out their PES holding to BG, not that Shell would be too impressed if they did, I would imagine!


----------



## Dukey (17 February 2009)

oldblue said:


> And it certainly doesn't look as though AOE are ready to throw in the towel either.
> Their current offer is unconditional and they are reviewing the situation. At the very least, they seem determined not to sell out their PES holding to BG, not that Shell would be too impressed if they did, I would imagine!






grace said:


> What a darling hey!  At this rate, I might recoup all of my bad trading decisions made for the last 2 years in one go.  How's that for luck.
> 
> Still holding and waiting.....




C'MON THE ARROW horse...!!
need the Aussie brumby to dig deep and win this race... bring on $9.5!!!


.. but seriously where will it stop?? the market obviously thinks there is at least one more offer to come... but BG seem to be deadly serious about winning. These are not small dollars being thrown about.

Time to buy up some other undervalued CSGers....(anyone care to fill in the gaps or add more?)
BOW? - from memory- few, but high quality tenements
BUL? - just got a serious CSG boffin on the board!
WCL? - supposed to be proving up resources soon.
ICN? - dunno much about these guys.
MEL? - seriously undervalued.
ESG? - dunno bout these guys either - held once but didn't go anywhere.
even LNC since they bought SXP's csg acreage in SthAus.
Big players
STO
ORG
and who did AJL sell their gas tenement to?? and more to the point - WHY!!!??

Who ever thought there's be so many opportunities in this sh!tty market!


----------



## beerwm (18 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> C'MON THE ARROW horse...!!
> need the Aussie brumby to dig deep and win this race... bring on $9.5!!!
> 
> 
> ...




Regarding your list;

If BG doesnt win PES, we now know they have the money and the intent for more CSG reserves,

I'd say they'd pick up the rest of WCL - already a 50% interest.- once the reserves justify a T/O

BOW and VPE also have some nice tenements around the location that BG is looking,

BUL - still a way from proving reserves

ESG-MEL - more a chance AJL/STO will be looking at these guys - due to location

If AOE doesnt get PES, im not sure.

- they cant really play for WCL,

so i guess BOW would be there play,
-But i think AOE will end up with PES - they want it more.

also 

RAW, ICN, ECU which i dont know much about
and MPO


----------



## basilio (18 February 2009)

Yet another substantial jump in PES CSM reserves. Certainly should add fuel to the fire when valuing the assets.

At least it shows that the directors are on their toes in trying to encourage the best price for  shareholders. It would have been an ugly look for  this upgrade to come out after AOE or  BG had made their  last call.

And of course the fact that reserves are still accumulating with so much more exploration to be done suggest this is a real gold/gas mine.

No wonder the chase is on.



> PURE ENERGY UPGRADES 2P RESERVES TO 522 PJ IN ATP 852
> 
> This upgrade represents a 32% increase in 2P reserves at the Cameron Field. Together with the recent reserve certification in Queensland permit ATP 806P, the total certified reserves and contingent resources of the Company are as follows:


----------



## beerwm (18 February 2009)

basilio said:


> Yet another substantial jump in PES CSM reserves. Certainly should add fuel to the fire when valuing the assets.
> 
> At least it shows that the directors are on their toes in trying to encourage the best price for  shareholders. It would have been an ugly look for  this upgrade to come out after AOE or  BG had made their  last call.
> 
> ...




you're right about the exploration, just look at page 4.

I'd say ATP806/852 are only about 15% of the land PES has in QLD[and they can still be upgraded], just looking at ATP758 and ATP759, its no wonder this csg player is so sort after.


----------



## grace (18 February 2009)

I see the Directors are accepting BG's latest offer, "subject to a higher offer"......also see other major holders accepting in 7 days time.  Still time for something more substancial in 7 days I would think.

Time for a chart, before it's history!  Those who got PES on the float at 20cents not so long ago have had a nice ride....


----------



## Mad Mel (19 February 2009)

beerwm said:


> ESG-MEL - more a chance AJL/STO will be looking at these guys - due to location




Hey mate...  just wondering if you're thinking AGL rather than AJL?  AJL's been selling off their CSG assets, AGL's been acquiring in NSW.   But there could be something I don't know about AJL.

Great listing though, your thoughts make sense.


----------



## beerwm (19 February 2009)

Mad Mel said:


> Hey mate...  just wondering if you're thinking AGL rather than AJL?  AJL's been selling off their CSG assets, AGL's been acquiring in NSW.   But there could be something I don't know about AJL.
> 
> Great listing though, your thoughts make sense.




yeah AGL sorry.

I think everyone under-estimates the importance of location in all this.
If you look at the SGL T/O you see AGL have JV with SGL and was virtually buying a bigger share of their tenements, similarily PES had a few JV's with AOE. [from memory] and side/by/side tenements.

DYOR


----------



## basilio (21 February 2009)

Another week another bid.

So, market price for PES is $8.50.  BG is offering  $8.00  with no strings. AOE perhaps, hopefully,  reconsidering its position. Shell on the sidelines wondering how much it really wants PES.

Meanwhile American banks start to look  dodgy again, Eastern European countries seem poised to collectively swamp Western European banks with  bad debts. Another $50 bill scam surfaces and gold keeps rising..

Does $8.50 on the market look good in the circumstances?


----------



## Dukey (21 February 2009)

basilio said:


> Another week another bid.
> 
> So, market price for PES is $8.50. BG is offering $8.00 with no strings. AOE perhaps, hopefully, reconsidering its position. Shell on the sidelines wondering how much it really wants PES.
> 
> ...




At 8.50 - the market seems to like the chances of another offer I'd think. It's certainly a possibilty and the upgrades from PES help the cause - nice to see the directors are releasing those updates openly - shows they are acting independently to the extent possible, rather than keeping them quiet for only AOE eyes!

Personally I'll hang out longer to see what happens - I'd rather PES stay 'home' with AOE if they can pull out the big $$.

Another consideration is that if AOE eventually sellout to BG - they will pick up alot of cash from their current PES holding - meaning they could go hunting for other potential gas supplies.

PES has 92Mill shares listed (according to comsec)

AOE have 20% - 18.4 Mill = X $8.5 = $ 156 Mill

Shell apparently have another 15 % = 13.8 Mill = $ 117 Mill

Thats a fair warchest - enough to buy BUL and MEL outright - though both are less advanced than PES, and maybe not strategcally right.... but it's an option I suppose - depending on how things play out from here.


----------



## Ross Walker (24 February 2009)

_"The Independent Directors of Pure, who in aggregate have an interest in approximately 12% of Pure Shares, are not intending to accept Arrow’s Offer and have stated that they intend to accept BG’s Offer on 25 February 2009, subject to there being no superior proposal.

Pure has also been advised by key shareholders, Mr Tom Fontaine and Mr Karl Meade, who have an interest in approximately 5% and 3% of Pure’s issued share capital respectively, that neither of them are intending to accept Arrow’s Offer and that they intend to accept BG’s Offer on 25 February 2009, subject to there being no superior proposal."_

I'm not sure why there has been no response from Arrow, but if they're going to make a counter-offer it had better be by tomorrow, otherwise BG gets an extra 20%, taking them to 30% at least.

It's going to be an interesting race to see who wins 50%. If Arrow keeps its current offer it is safe to say that BG will be well and truly over the line.


----------



## basilio (24 February 2009)

Certainly an interesting waiting game. The market seems to think Arrow won't come back again. Price is falling.

As a poker game the trick will be who can make the the last raise that still makes economic sense. Any thoughts on the current value of the reserves?


----------



## jancha (24 February 2009)

Personally i think in the long term the Arrow offer is the better one. The offer of BGs $8 looks attractive but if we all had a share of Australia to sell...would you? I know thats a bit over the top but by letting BG in as a major player.... would that not take away our jobs in the long run or doesn't that come into the equation? Long term Arrow would be stronger and more secure investment wouldn't it?


----------



## Mickel (24 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> Personally I'll hang out longer to see what happens - I'd rather PES stay 'home' with AOE if they can pull out the big $$.
> 
> Another consideration is that if AOE eventually sellout to BG - they will pick up alot of cash from their current PES holding - meaning they could go hunting for other potential gas supplies.
> 
> ...




According to separate announcements by PES on 14/1/09,  AOE now has 24.85m PES shares after excising 9m $0.30 options.This gave AOE 19.98% of PES. 

Total PES shares on issue then was 124.36m 

According to Commsec, Shell had 14.88% of PES on 7/10/08 when total shares on issue was at least 10m less (there was at least another 1m options excised in Dec 08), so they probably have around 14-15m shares.

If AOE do miss out on PES at least they have a nice little profit on those 9m excised options. Of course they would also have a nice profit from their other shares. Total collect $199m.

Do not hold PES (but wish I did).


----------



## Dukey (24 February 2009)

Mickel said:


> According to separate announcements by PES on 14/1/09, AOE now has 24.85m PES shares after excising 9m $0.30 options.This gave AOE 19.98% of PES.
> 
> Total PES shares on issue then was 124.36m
> 
> ...




Looks like the comsuk data I used is a bit out of date - nothing new there 

Regarding new offers: I really thought shell would wake up and kick in for one more offer , but it's getting abit late in the day. Of course they could have called PES at 4.45pm and said hold off - we'll have an offer on your desk first thing tomorrow.

AOE have had a flurry of announcements lately - maybe they are trying to shore up their sp and draw attention to their 'many fingers in many pies' strategy. AOE shares are attractive in ther own right - and even more attractive wth PES incorporated.

I expect most of us would prefer AOE - an aussie company - to win control of PES, but then they will probably be at the mercy of shell anyway - maybe even taken over sometime down the track... It's a tough one. I wanna see AOE win, but I want full value - I'm sure most are in the same position.

A nice announcement from AOE tomorrow am would make it all too easy - but if BG trumped them again then think it would be all over.

- tomorrow could be the clincher... - duke-E


----------



## grace (24 February 2009)

Yes Dukey, tomorrow is D-Day.  I wonder what price this would have been had we still been in a bull market?  I guess some would say coal seam gas has been the only bull while there is bleeding out on the street.  We may have got double if it was still 2007 fever!  But I guess, with everything else going for less than half price, it's all relative.


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## anatol (25 February 2009)

What if ; AOE buys another %16 PES shares over $8 from the market and goes over 50.1% together with Shell, and take the control of PES. (This is what BG wants to do, but they are quite far from doing that for now)

After buying that %16 shares, AOE would not need to buy any more of them at that $8 price. Then they would leave it to the market. 

Would BG buy any more at $8 price if AOE  goes over 50.1% ? (I wouldn't as there is no meaning for it. It would be waste of money)

If not, what would happen to the SP of the PES shares who are still being hold by their owners. If no one buys, SP will go down. (It is going down now)

Be careful PES  holders. 

DON'T TRUST TO BG. 
They don't know what they are doing. BG should have bought half of ORG last year, or should have bought AOE instead of QGC, plus PES, easily. That would be  enough  for them. Now they are trying to repair their mistake by paying more money. They paid a lot of money to QGC which does not have a larger CSG reserves than AOE. Also QGC's big acrages (ATP688P in Bowen Basin and ATP769P in Surat Basin) are shared 50% with WCL and there are no certified reserves on these acrages (and the biggest acrage 688P in Bowen basin is not very hopefull because of the volcanic staff mixed in the CSG here). ATP811P (next to PES acarage in Bowen Basin) and ATP693P are already left by WCL as there was no hope for CSG in them.  So what is left? There are some acrages in Surat Basin, but they are not enough. Who is left? PES and AOE ! Can BG buy them? Not sure!

It is obvious thaat AOE will not bid for PES anymore. 

I would sell PES shares over $8 now and buy AOE shares if I was holding PES shares.

(I am an AOE share holder)


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## Dangerous (25 February 2009)

Anatol, You seem to know your stuff.  I have heard the following, what do you know?:

1.  Arrows gas is all contracted
2.  Their reserves are not as good as STO, ORG and QGC (quality of coals or something to do with permeability) and shell may not want them?

-----

See my comments on the Karoon blog (KAR) for my doubts about CSG...  I've done well out the stocks, but with Shell having not made a move on AOE i'm getting very nervous


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## basilio (25 February 2009)

Interesting story anatol...

I would have thought that the BG offer at $8.00 was firm until it closed or was upped. If this is correct then I would have thought PES holders risk losing the current premium over $8.00.

Can anyone else throw some light on Anotols ideas? Could PES shareholders be left in the market without either AOE or BG's offer still on the table? Are there any Stock Excahange requirements that would prohibit this? (I seem to remember that laws were changed in the past to stop takeover merchants scoring 50.1% of a company and then leaving the rest of the scrip to fall..)


----------



## Ross Walker (25 February 2009)

An interesting item contained in Pure's recent target's statement:

If Arrow acquires more than 50% but less than 90% of Pure Shares then:

the Pure share price may fall immediately following the end of the Offer Period and it is unlikely that Pure’s share price will contain any takeover premium; liquidity of Pure’s shares may be lower than at present;

Pure may be removed from the official list of ASX. *Arrow has stated in Arrow’s Bidder’s Statement that unless a sufficient spread of shareholders remains after completion of its Offer, it intends to arrange for Pure to be removed from the official list of ASX. If this occurs, Pure Shares will not be able to be bought or sold on ASX;*

That last paragraph is a big concern. If Arrow was going to top BG's offer I would have expected an announcement sooner rather than later, as I'm sure there have been Pure holders selling into BG's offer over the last week. 

The risk of holding out is becoming considerable. It might not pay to be too greedy (pardon the pun).


----------



## Ross Walker (25 February 2009)

basilio said:


> I would have thought that the BG offer at $8.00 was firm until it closed or was upped.




The BG bidders statement says that the offer can be withdrawn at any time (upon ASIC ok). So if Arrow do manage to get 50% then withdrawal is a real possibility IMHO.




basilio said:


> Interesting story anatol...
> Could PES shareholders be left in the market without either AOE or BG's offer still on the table?




Given that BG can withdraw their offer at any time, I'm sure Arrow can do the same.


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## basilio (25 February 2009)

Lets see what happens now... 

Obviously there will be many happy campers with the PES  takeover  battle. I came across one particular investor who decided a couple of years ago that energy stocks were the future. He started his own fund and apparently made around $1 billion in June 2008 . (That's not a misprint..)

His holdings at June 2008 included PES and AOE



> These days for Mathews it’s all about energy, and as usual he has approached that sector single-mindedly. Last week Mathews Capital emerged with 5.1 per cent of Santos, worth more than $650 million. According to other recent substantial shareholder filings Mathews also owns 12 per cent of Beach Petroleum, worth $100 million, 19.6 million shares in Nexus Energy, *15.4 million in Arrow Energy*, 9.6 million in Metgasco and *6.5 million in Pure Energy*. On top of that he also owns 93 million shares or 10.5 per cent of Renison.
> 
> In 2005 he told the Masters of the Market authors: “Our basic point is that world energy markets will only add 300,000 net barrels of production a day between now and 2010, and yet demand is projected to grow from 84 million barrels a day now to 125 million barrels a day by 2050. So you’re going to have a 50 per cent increase in demand and there’s been almost no significant, major discoveries for 30 years!”




http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2008/06/australias-peak-oil-billionaire.html


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## Dukey (25 February 2009)

anatol said:


> What if ; AOE buys another %16 PES shares over $8 from the market and goes over 50.1% together with Shell, and take the control of PES. (This is what BG wants to do, but they are quite far from doing that for now)
> 
> After buying that %16 shares, AOE would not need to buy any more of them at that $8 price. Then they would leave it to the market.
> 
> ...




Not so sure about your accuracy Anatol. I'm glad you put your ' I own AOE shares' disclaimer at the bottom - because - to me at least - your post reads like a biased AOE shareholders post would. 

Warning to all - emotional attachment to a particular share - for any reason - is dangerous in this game.

As longer term CSG shareholders have realised - It's not about the size of the acreage - but *much more about the quality* *- gas content etc* *and thickness of the coal seams.* The tenements BG (ex-QGC) have with WCL are insignificant compared to their main play in the Walloon coals (651p is it? or 652p?) which is THE BEST there is in QLD in terms of the amount of gas each hole produces. Full stop. Something like 1.5 to 2 MCF per day _(Grace - or anyone correct me if I'm wrong anywhere here) _which is great for CSG and must surely reduce production costs substantially.

The reason BG want PES - and as far as I'm concerned *the only reason* they'd pay so much - is because *PES have a great tenement right next door* to ex-QGC's Walloon play (so did SHG I recall) - BG can bolt it straight on to the LNG pipe and reap the benefits for years to come. There's no risk - they know it's a gusher in CSG terms.
PES's other tenements are added bonuses. but they might amount to bugger all. Most likely none of them are as good as the one next to ex-QGC.

As much as I'd like to see AOE get PES from an 'aussie' point of view - to say that BG - a multnational energy Co - don't know what they're doing.... well it just sounds like a biased AOE holder to me!! They know exactly what they are doing and why and they know what all this gas will be worth in a couple of years time when the world wide recession is history and oil heads sky high forever more.
---------------
EDIT: I should add that that doesn't mean BG will win. - They have the highest offer on the table at them moment, but as Ross walker has pointed out - there maybe other ways for AOE to win the game and they had a head start!
-----------------

PS I'm holding AOE, PES, BUL, MEL and considering others.

I expect to make a quid out of all of them!! - though I'm down on BUL, even on MEL. Not considering ESG - not convinced there's value there.

-E.


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## Ross Walker (25 February 2009)

basilio said:


> I came across one particular investor who decided a couple of years ago that energy stocks were the future.




That's an interesting quote basilio. I used similar rationale to buy into both Arrow in June 2004 (at 22 cents) and then Pure in June 2007. Peak Oil will probably require a transition into gas to some extent, and GW will probably require a transition from coal into gas. I passed on the Pure float as I suspected their options would be a much more leveraged play with very low risk given the above (assuming you believe in PO and GW). I bought a boat-load of Pure options at around 5 cents so I've got half a million $ riding on the outcome of this Pure sale. I've never dealt with that sort of money on one stock before so I'm starting to think "a bird in the hand". 

Arrow's lack of an increased offer today suggests to me they're aiming for 50% in other ways (off-market offers to large investors perhaps). I can't see them making another public offer, otherwise they would have made it before today to secure the Pure director's shares. Perhaps they simply can't afford a higher offer. Whatever the case, I saw the lack of an announcement today as a negative so I sold 2/3rds of my Pure around market close to get the (ever decreasing) premium. Will consider the discussion here before deciding when to sell the remainder. I'd like to hear everyones' take on Arrow's strategy. I'm at a complete loss.


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## anatol (25 February 2009)

Dangerous said:


> Anatol, You seem to know your stuff.  I have heard the following, what do you know?:
> 
> 1.  Arrows gas is all contracted
> 2.  Their reserves are not as good as STO, ORG and QGC (quality of coals or something to do with permeability) and shell may not want them?
> ...




I don't think I know much. I am just reading a lot and making analysis with the available data about this CSG industry (and a bit of oil). I have collected all of the tenements and permits in one map and can see them all together. The main thing driving me is my business accumen. I can sense what is coming next after making some analysis. 

1. Most of the CSG resources are contracted. I could tell you about QGC; avarage in Wallon Fairway owned from 20%-80% by QGC, the permits in Bowen Basin are 50% shared with WCL. I don't about Origin and Santos. I haven't worked on them as I couldn't make any money our of them. 

2. These are certified reserves. They have to comply with standards for being certified. Same thing was told for all CSG business before. It was said the CSG methane would not be accepted in the market. But we can see now, tens of billions of dollars are being invested. I would not bother about the quality of the CSG as long as it complies with standards. Furthermore, this is Australian CSG mate, it may not be very high quality but a steady supply. What else you can ask. Look at the  European countries suffering from Russian natural gas supply!


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## Ross Walker (25 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> PS I'm holding AOE, PES, BUL, MEL and considering others.
> 
> I expect to make a quid out of all of them!! - though I'm down on BUL, even on MEL. Not considering ESG - not convinced there's value there.
> 
> -E.




Speaking about "life after Pure"  I'll probably move more funds into the CSG sector for the reasons I explained in a previous post. I'm heavily weighted in Arrow already but I think they are still cheap given their international plays so I'll be topping up. I looked at BUL recently after you and Grace mentioned it, but after reading their announcements and listening to an audio presentation by one of the BUL reps I was not impressed at all. They have quite large tenements but the quality is marginal, generally 4 to 7 metres I think (barely profitable?). That was the killer for me. Most of their tenements are unexplored so there is still some potential there, but I assume they would have started their drilling program in the most prospective areas. They also seem to use a lot of superlatives and qualifiers in their announcements, which tends to turn me off. Well, I could be completely wrong of course Dukey (and Grace) so I would be interested in your analysis of BUL.

I think ESG has a good chance of becoming a take-over target if and when NSW CSG takes off (have been buying since July 2008), and WCL as a long shot. I bought WCLO options as I don't have much confidence. I'm hoping they'll release some positive announcements to get their options over the line (like Arrow did). 

I'll now take a look at MEL. Any others? One thing I am sure of, there will be no more PESs in Qld.


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## anatol (25 February 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> An interesting item contained in Pure's recent target's statement:
> 
> If Arrow acquires more than 50% but less than 90% of Pure Shares then:
> 
> ...





Thanks Ross. Your explanations are supporting my analysis. I did not read Arrow's Bidder's Statement that carefully. I would do the same (buy PES shares off-market) if I would have Arrow's managament; I would not bid any more than this as I already have 35% (20% plus $15 Shell). Even though the directors of PES selling to BG but there are alot of shares in the market to buy. Someone else can buy the remmaining 15% (which is not much money), then sell to Arrow (Off-market sale) That is possible. 

The main trick here is, Arrow won't leave PES. (Vey simple ; They are doing something else as they are not bidding!) PES is the last one in the market. (I don't beleive BOW, Blue Energy, Molopo are any good for those big guys, even not for Arrow). If Arrow lets PES goes to BG, Arrow itself will be a takeover target. Then end of Shell's play in CSG. 

So the smart management of Arrow will do the right actions. (The only stupidy that have done, they did not put the takeover bid for PES long time ago, before Oct. 2008. Maybe they did not have the money or the confidence that time)


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## Dukey (25 February 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> Speaking about "life after Pure"  I'll probably move more funds into the CSG sector for the reasons I explained in a previous post. I'm heavily weighted in Arrow already but I think they are still cheap given their international plays so I'll be topping up. I looked at BUL recently after you and Grace mentioned it, but after reading their announcements and listening to an audio presentation by one of the BUL reps I was not impressed at all. *They have quite large tenements but the quality is marginal, generally 4 to 7 metres I think (barely profitable?).* That was the killer for me. Most of their tenements are unexplored so there is still some potential there, but I assume they would have started their drilling program in the most prospective areas. They also seem to use a lot of superlatives and qualifiers in their announcements, which tends to turn me off. Well, I could be completely wrong of course Dukey (and Grace) so I would be interested in your analysis of BUL.
> 
> I think ESG has a good chance of becoming a take-over target if and when NSW CSG takes off (have been buying since July 2008), and WCL as a long shot. I bought WCLO options as I don't have much confidence. I'm hoping they'll release some positive announcements to get their options over the line (like Arrow did).
> 
> I'll now take a look at MEL. Any others? One thing I am sure of, there will be no more PESs in Qld.




I agree Ross. BUL tenements have so far shown pretty ordinary quality - ie thin coal seams resulting in not much gas. I believe that is the key for CSG. - *Quality of the tenement* (ie energy per hole) - not quality of the gas ( Gas is Gas is Gas - more or less) I bought BUL cause they seemed very cheap and figured they were worth the punt that some tenements will pay off eventually.

I want to look closer at BOW and ICN in qld - there might be something worth getting a piece of - but they don't have anything like what PES has/had.

MEL seems to have plenty of gas in place and good location, and undervalued I think.
ESG - nothing against them but they seem to move slowly and I just can't see how they are worth 8 to 10 times what MEL is at the moment!!

And yes - AOE - should still have a big future even if they lose PES. Plenty of international deals to soften the blow.

Re: PES - with so much at stake probably a good decision to sell some and lock in profits. Wish to hell I had those kind of numbers to worry about Ross!! 
-E


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## basilio (26 February 2009)

PES is opening at $8.06 after Pure directors announce they will sell their shares to BG at $8.00. But interestingly there are buy orders for 2 million shares at $8.05. And the shares are now rising. Perhaps there is still more to this play...


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## Ross Walker (26 February 2009)

basilio said:


> But interestingly there are buy orders for 2 million shares at $8.05. And the shares are now rising. Perhaps there is still more to this play...




Yes, saw that. I suspect that Arrow has others buying on their behalf, especially when their most recent announcement states *"Selling your Pure shares on the ASX provides any shareholder who wants a cash only exit now with a quicker and currently more attractive offer than the BG offer."*

They also state:
*"Arrow notes that BG has not yet declared its offer price final and BG’s offer must remain open until 23 March 2009."*

yet BG's announcement does not state this condition at all:

*"This Offer may be withdrawn with the consent in writing of ASIC, which
consent may be subject to conditions. If ASIC gives such consent, BG
AUS will give notice of the withdrawal to ASX and to Pure and will
comply with any other conditions imposed by ASIC."*

Anybody know if Arrow's statement is correct? Must the offer stay open until March 23rd?

I'm not sure what game Arrow is trying to play, but it would have been more helpful to shareholders if they had released this announcement yesterday, before the Pure directors' acceptance deadline 

Never mind, I locked in some profits yesterday and I still have a reasonable holding to take advantage of any further upside.


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## Ross Walker (26 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> I believe that is the key for CSG. - *Quality of the  tenement* (ie energy per hole) - not quality of the gas ( Gas is Gas is Gas - more or less)




Yes I agree completely.



Dukey said:


> I want to look closer at BOW and ICN in qld - there might be something worth getting a piece of - but they don't have anything like what PES has/had.




I noted BOW previously but haven't had a chance to read their announcements yet. I'll take a look at ICN; that's a new one for me.



Dukey said:


> ESG - nothing against them but they seem to move slowly and I just can't see how they are worth 8 to 10 times what MEL is at the moment!!




Take a look at their recent presentation:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090226/pdf/00931133.pdf
It contains some interesting data including:
*"ESG has the Largest Acreage on the East Coast"*
I'm not sure if it is *all *good quality, but they have measured coal thicknesses varying from 50 to 140 feet! I'm sure there will be plenty of CSG in there.

They also include a slide which states the A$/Mcf paid for most of the major takeovers to date. That averages to about $2.80/PJ 2P and $1.10/PJ 3P. This values ESG at around 80c/share (218PJ 2P) or $1.30/share (845PJ 3P). These estimates are always rubbery of course. DYOR   I'll be adding to my stash whenever there are reasonable dips in their share price.

Cheers.


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## basilio (26 February 2009)

Just noticed that huge blocks of shares were sold at opening and while PES was $8.05 . 2mill plus. And at 10.30 AOE makes its announcement effectively saying it is still in the game.  Trying to work out why this announcement was not made either yesterday or at least before the opening of the market.

Would be very interested to know who made the purchases in the first 30 minutes and if they are associated with AOE.


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## oldblue (26 February 2009)

I think that if AOE had made that announcement yesterday, worded as it was, it might have been seen as misleading the market into thinking that a revised offer was going to be made at the last minute.
They would have had a lot of explaining to do if it had sparked off a further speculative run on the PES SP.

Just IMO.


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## Mad Mel (26 February 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> I noted BOW previously but haven't had a chance to read their announcements yet. I'll take a look at ICN; that's a new one for me.




For what it's worth, my digging around indicates that these are the smaller public companies which have leases in their name around the QLD Walloon area: BOW, BUL, ICN, VPE, RAW.  There are probably others with partial ownership such as WCL, not sure if MPO or AJL have any more rights.  

But it's entirely possible I've missed a few.

ICN's starting a drilling program tout-suite, I think.


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## Dangerous (26 February 2009)

anatol said:


> I don't think I know much. I am just reading a lot and making analysis with the available data about this CSG industry (and a bit of oil). I have collected all of the tenements and permits in one map and can see them all together. The main thing driving me is my business accumen. I can sense what is coming next after making some analysis.
> 
> 1. Most of the CSG resources are contracted. I could tell you about QGC; avarage in Wallon Fairway owned from 20%-80% by QGC, the permits in Bowen Basin are 50% shared with WCL. I don't about Origin and Santos. I haven't worked on them as I couldn't make any money our of them.
> 
> 2. These are certified reserves. They have to comply with standards for being certified. Same thing was told for all CSG business before. It was said the CSG methane would not be accepted in the market. But we can see now, tens of billions of dollars are being invested. I would not bother about the quality of the CSG as long as it complies with standards. Furthermore, this is Australian CSG mate, it may not be very high quality but a steady supply. What else you can ask. Look at the  European countries suffering from Russian natural gas supply!




report to market showed 75% of 2P is uncontracted

Certification is a little loose IMO... it is very easy to prove up reserves.  That is why i think co's undertaking what appear to be agressive drilling campaings like ESG will prob get their targets


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## Dangerous (26 February 2009)

Mad Mel said:


> For what it's worth, my digging around indicates that these are the smaller public companies which have leases in their name around the QLD Walloon area: BOW, BUL, ICN, VPE, RAW.  There are probably others with partial ownership such as WCL, not sure if MPO or AJL have any more rights.
> 
> But it's entirely possible I've missed a few.
> 
> ICN's starting a drilling program tout-suite, I think.




VPE and BOW the only two worth a look IMO.  Two old QGC founders bought 12% of the VPE stock in Dec.  20% owned by QGC as well


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## Mad Mel (26 February 2009)

Dangerous said:


> VPE and BOW the only two worth a look IMO.  Two old QGC founders bought 12% of the VPE stock in Dec.  20% owned by QGC as well




I agree, I think generally BUL's are pretty far out on the fringe, and RAW is too deep, as is most of ICN's two leases.  Though they might get lucky on the east side of 626.  

I don't understand VPE very well yet, they seem pretty diverse so perhaps selling off their CBM leases won't be that big a bonanza?  I dunno, I should caveat all of this by saying I'm a newbie trader.

BOW's holdings look about as close to the action as you're gonna get these days, and they've got some interesting tenements elsewhere, such as Canaway Ridge and Bowen Basin, who knows, maybe those turn out to be the diamonds in the rough at the end of the day.


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## anatol (27 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> Not so sure about your accuracy Anatol. I'm glad you put your ' I own AOE shares' disclaimer at the bottom - because - to me at least - your post reads like a biased AOE shareholders post would.
> 
> Warning to all - emotional attachment to a particular share - for any reason - is dangerous in this game.
> ...........
> ...




Dukey,
I did not answer to right after your reply, because my only answer would be to say that you were a biased PES holder. I just wanted share my ideas and analysis with you guys here. I believed I was seeing some tricky things happening behind the scenes (which some of you can't see!) I did not try to manipulate anyone. 

What I said on Tuesday Feb 25th, IT IS PROVEN TO BE TRUE NOW. I am not biased, was just trying to help you guys. What AOE told yesterday was, recommending to sell your shares in the market. Same with what I said. You should come back to me and and apologize for saying "Biased". 

Now, smart BG managers (!) understood AOE's intention and increased the bid to $8.25. Huh! we'll see. They are always coming behind. Believe me our aussie guys are smarter. 

Yes, of course AOE is acquiring more shares. No one should complain that why AOE is not telling its every intention to the market! Who does that? In this market only the actions are being told but not the intentions. When the intentions are told, it is being only speculative. (Like Link Energy's selling coal tenement for 1.5b to a Chinese company story. A lot of people ate this bait that time, Link went up to $4, now $1.25, and I wouldn't pay more than $0.10 for it)


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## Dangerous (27 February 2009)

anyone dial in yesterday to the arrow briefing?... i did and my opinion is that they were not as forthcoming as media reports today suggested.  anyone agree?


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## Dukey (28 February 2009)

anatol said:


> Dukey,
> I did not answer to right after your reply, because my only answer would be to say that you were a biased PES holder. I just wanted share my ideas and analysis with you guys here. I believed I was seeing some tricky things happening behind the scenes (which some of you can't see!) I did not try to manipulate anyone.
> 
> What I said on Tuesday Feb 25th, IT IS PROVEN TO BE TRUE NOW. I am not biased, was just trying to help you guys. What AOE told yesterday was, recommending to sell your shares in the market. Same with what I said. You should come back to me and and apologize for saying "Biased".
> ...




Anatol - I'm not interested in some kind of protracted argument. I just call things as i see it. In fact we agree on some things, maybe many things! Clearly you have taken offence to the word biased - but the fact is everyone here is biased to some degree - whether they like it or not. It's a simple fact of human nature. You want _your_ horse to win!! but IMO it's not part of good analysis. 
I will say only this:

_SOME_ things you have posted have been proven correct. You have some good insights. 

_OTHER THINGS_ you said are unknown - like whether or not AOE is somehow buying PES on market >$8.00 - maybe through shell??. Some are of the opinion that they CAN'T do that legally (see AOE thread). If you are saying that you KNOW they are buying on market - then I would be keen to know HOW you know that!!

_SOME_ things you said are simply opinion - such as your repeated statements that BG is 'not serious' about their PES offer and that they 'don't know what they are doing'. and they made a mistake in buying QGC. . To me - that kind of statement reveals a clear bias, and I won't be apologising for drawing attention to it, so that others here might think twice.

-------------
For what its worth - as i have said before, *I hold AOE and PES and like you, I would prefer to see AOE win the day, *but I'm not blinkered enough to think that _only_ AOE is smart or fantastic, and that BG are a bunch of clowns! BG have shown serious intent to win PES or maybe part of it.  They have been smart enough to recognise the future value in QLD csg industry and invest heavily.
BG are not stupid.... but they did start this race handicapped by the initial AOE/shell holdings in PES - so they'll have to do something extraordinary to win PES. $8.25 may not be enough.


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## anatol (28 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> Anatol - I'm not interested in some kind of protracted argument. I just call things as i see it. In fact we agree on some things, maybe many things! Clearly you have taken offence to the word biased - but the fact is everyone here is biased to some degree - whether they like it or not. It's a simple fact of human nature. You want _your_ horse to win!! but IMO it's not part of good analysis.
> I will say only this:
> 
> _SOME_ things you have posted have been proven correct. You have some good insights.
> ...




Dukey, 
if you are not interested if any kind of protracted argument, you did not need to bring every detail of my opinions. Ok. Lets cut this off here. 

I don't need to be biased because no one is my horse. I can change my horse anytime. Everyone investor should do the same, then no need to be biased. I am 53 years old semi-retired business professional with mech. eng. background. I can't act with my emotions even I want to. 

I did not say that I knew from a source that AOE was buying PES shares in the market. That was an analysis. And I was trying to warn you that important day (Tuesday 25th Feb). And it happened. 

I knew many other things which might be very helpful to you guys here, or we could consider about those things all together. I am ready to share with you. I am making a research about the energy industry all around the world; Which energy source is coming to primary position (Oil, gas, nuclear)? What are the reserves? What are the productions? What are the consumptions? What is left for future? When does it end? Why CSG (Or CBM) is so important now? What is driving this? Which buyers want it first? Which countries needs it more? Who has it more? etc.etc. ...

I will make my posts in AOE thread. 

Yes, I admire AOE. I am still investing on it. I would like to be part of this company if they could offer a job for me as I am in Brisbane  

Yes AOE is a very smart company. They have very limited resources but they are managing dancing with the wolves; BG, Shell, Golar LNG Ltd., Santos, Petronas,etc.

Read AE's last presentation carefully and see how fast and safely they are going upwards; 

They are going fast because you all AOE share holders and know how much you earned so far from it. (I have bought mines only four months ago).

They are safe because they have enough cash to manage their activities for the next two years. 

This is another prediction from me now; They are giving the signals that are not connecting them selves to Shell very tightly, so they can move to any other direction in any time for the sake of company. (giving their resources separately, not saying together with shell or bla,bla,.. everything is net there. And LNG gas sales are already separated than Shell with LNG Ltd. Shell is out of the game there. And AOE is alone with Goral and LNG Ltd.) So There is a separation from Shell, that shows me that AOE is gaining more confidence. In this BG game there is no help from Shell, but AOE continues to fight with the BG giant  in a GUERILLA WAR manner. Good on you AOE !

They are keeping their core (domestic) business active and producing gas, selling it and making money, owns half shares in Power Plants. 

They are playing internationally in 4 emerging markets; China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam, exploring CSG. 

They have the best experience and techniques for exploring the CSG. Now, they use Shell's Lean Manufacturing techniques to lower the Finding Cost of Gas. it is $0.07/GJ now. Market valuation is $2.07. Significant difference. (I know what is Lean Manufactruring and how it can change the things). Aoe is honestly giving its all reserve capacity net, gross, uncontracted,.. unlike others CSG explorers. I could not find those details from any of the others' sources.

I think this is enough, you should look at their presentation to understand how well AOE is doing. 

Yes BG is not a smart company IMO because BG failed twice. They underestimated Origin, they lost it. They overestimated QGC, they got it. So they need PES. 

Now this might be BG's third failure. And that might be the failure of BG and the PES directors who sold their shares to BG, all togehter, and some PEs shareholders who don't sell their shares over $8. 

Could you understand why people were selling their PES shares at $8.15 last Friday even though BG said they will buy them at $8.25 ??? And over 4 million shares (nearly 4%) was circulated. I did not have any time to analyze this.


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## beerwm (28 February 2009)

I wouldnt say BG is "not a smart company", there actions seem pretty clever to me.

BG's offer of $8.25 is conditional on whether the obtain 90%, so i guess the market trading at $8.15 feel that they wont get 90%,

i guess the 0.15c premium being paid by the market is from those punting on them getting 90% or AOE upping their offer to get a greater share, or even perhaps Shell making a play.


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## Dukey (1 March 2009)

I I I !!
Anatol - as i have said previously - I'm not interested in some kind of protracted argument. Obviously it's pointless anyway.

Suffice to say - your last post proves my point - but you can post where you like - as can everyone else.

& Beerwm - answered your question satisfactorily IMO.
the reason is the 90% condition - which is a long way off, if it ever happens.

------------------

A question for all ...
Given Anatol's opinion about AOE & shell relationship - raises some questions like...
*What exactly is SHELL's role in this struggle?* So far they appear to have done sweet FA. WHY is it so? 
- could this 'appearance' of separation be strategic? a trump card for AOE?

- or is there a possibility that shell could do the dirty on AOE and offload their PES holding to BG?... just - 'take the money and run'? 

- on Feb 27 BG had 28.9%
- on Feb 26 AOE had 20.2 %
- we PRESUME shell still has their 15 odd %. - could be more... or less!! there have been no market releases about changes in their holding - so it should still be 15% - no? 

IMO AOE need Shell bigtime. At the very least they need their 15% of PES. They simply aren't big enough to slug it out with BG alone. If they can't rely on that - then the upper hand could change to BG quick smart.

#NOTE - these are not predictions - just questions or possibilities to ponder. Any ideas welcome. 
...Best value is still on the market.


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## Ross Walker (1 March 2009)

Well, it's only natural that we have some differences in our interpretations of the current situation, but I think we agree on all the 'fundamentals' to a great extent. 

I have very little criticism of Arrow and greatly admire the vision and 'smarts' of the CEO and directors. I think their only major failure to date (as another poster pointed out recently) was not making a bid for Pure much sooner, when the Sp was around 50c or so. They must have known that Pure was vastly undervalued, given the *huge* tenements involved and their *location*. I'm sure they had a fair idea the tenements were of high quality, even without data from the subsequent drilling programs. Well, this criticism can be leveled at any of the CSG players, including BG, Shell, etc.

As for BG, well, they've made a strong offer ($8), and if they get to 50% then it will have been a successful strategic move. My feeling is that their $8.25 offer @ 90% was directed more at Shell and Arrow than we minor shareholders, and Arrows 'late' market announcement re "sell on market" (and no counter-offer) was a message to BG to let them know they'll sell their PES holding if BG offer a good enough price (though I don't think $8.25 will be enough).





Dukey said:


> *What exactly is SHELL's role in this struggle?*




I have no idea either. They have a small part of Arrow and a small part of Pure (spoiling stakes). That may give them enough gas for the small LNG plant but probably not enough for their proposed larger plant(s) on Curtis Is. I would have thought _they _would try for PES rather than see it go to BG. If not PES, then their target must be Arrow, no?



Dukey said:


> or is there a possibility that shell could do the dirty on AOE and offload their PES holding to BG?... just - 'take the money and run'?




That's my take. I can't see them being a minority shareholder with BG, unless they can cut a good deal for a % of reserves to feed their Curtis plant.



Dukey said:


> there have been no market releases about changes in their holding - so it should still be 15% - no?




I think (may be wrong) that substantial shareholders have around a month to submit their notification to the ASX, so hopefully some of our questions will be answered in a couple of weeks


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## Ross Walker (1 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> MEL seems to have plenty of gas in place and good location, and undervalued I think.
> ESG - nothing against them but they seem to move slowly and I just can't see how they are worth 8 to 10 times what MEL is at the moment!!




Dukey, I ran a ruler over MEL and, my goodness, you're right; they appear to be a diamond among the rough. Here's my rough valuation:

Gas reserves:
2P reserves: 284 Bcf * 1.05 * 0.7 = 208PJ (assumed 70% net to MEL)
3P reserves: 1,460 Bcf * 1.05 * 0.7 = 1073PJ (assumed 70% net to MEL)
Shares 132m + 21m options
@$2/PJ (2P) = *$2.71/share 2P*
@50c/PJ (3P) = *$3.50/share 3P*

The above figures of $2/2P PJ and 50c/3P PJ are conservative; recent takeovers have averaged $2.80/PJ 2P and $1.10/PJ 3P. Using these figures we get ridiculously high valuations, suggesting MEL is very under-priced at 44c/share. My evaluations don't include MEL's other operations like conventional gas plays (Kingfisher Field, etc.). 

Negatives are their location (NSW) and lack of a pipeline to their tenements (145km Lions Way pipeline to Brisbane is in the planning stages), but my belief is that NSW CSG will take off in the near future (thus my entry into ESG) and the pipeline problem will resolve similarly (in the mean time, short lines to local power stations may suffice). There have been questions raised about the quality of their coal beds in the Clarence Morton Basin, but the booked 2P and 3P reserves quoted to date suggest the quality is good enough IMHO. 

I used some of my Pure proceeds to buy a sizable position @ 43.5c/share, so we'll see how they go as a long-term investment.

Here's their latest announcement:
http://www.metgasco.com.au/files/699854.pdf

anatol, have you analysed MEL?
Anyone else have comments?

R.


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## Dukey (1 March 2009)

Thanks for your replies Ross.
Whatever happens it will be interesting to see how it all plays out with shell, AOE, BG and PES!!
I think there is a distinct possiblity that PES could be chopped up after some kind of stalemate is reached. Only problem is - they will all want the same piece !!

As for MEL - yep I think they will have to get some attention sooner or later. If they can hook into the QLD market - they'll be laughing. There's a little on the MEL thread - but usually pretty quiet.

Hope it goes well for you ross - and me too!


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## Dangerous (1 March 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> Gas reserves:
> 2P reserves: 284 Bcf * 1.05 * 0.7 = 208PJ (assumed 70% net to MEL)
> 3P reserves: 1,460 Bcf * 1.05 * 0.7 = 1073PJ (assumed 70% net to MEL)
> Shares 132m + 21m options
> ...




Being in NSW wouldn't you be beter using the SGL valuation?  I have heard others to say to have a look at MEL.  I'd think something will have to happen there soon as they only have $2M in bank and are burning through it


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## Dangerous (1 March 2009)

Dangerous said:


> Being in NSW wouldn't you be beter using the SGL valuation?  I have heard others to say to have a look at MEL.  I'd think something will have to happen there soon as they only have $2M in bank and are burning through it





Should have held my fire.... Their latest presentation shows that was $4.08/GJ!!!...   second only to the petronas deal.

I don't think AGL have a clue what they are doing in this sector... not a clue

But yep... like MEL


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## beerwm (2 March 2009)

AGL basically just bought the full rights to their tenements,

i think both of SGL's tenements were 50% JV with AGL, so it made perfect sense,

sure you can look at $/GJ
But SGL didnt have much proved resources, so its abit skewed.

It would be like valuating a purchase of BOW/WCL, they dont have any proved reserves but I think they would be considered 'smart' buys, by AOE/BG alike.

SGL's potential was massive I believe, and 40c was a great price in prespective to its shareprice movement.

regarding PES.. whats the piece they are both after?


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## anatol (2 March 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> anatol, have you analysed MEL?
> Anyone else have comments?
> 
> R.




Good work for MEL Ross, Thanks.

No I haven't done a serious work on those NSW and VIC explorers. I prefer to open my eyes on OSH (Oil Reseach) as may next candidate. I recommend you to look at it. I need more time to make a good reasearch on their reserves, but its price is already going up after their repprt this week. I am expecting a Chinese takeover on OSH in the short term. ( I've got a few signs but not so sure) 

I don't beleive those big foreigner guys who have already invested and planning to invest huge amount of dollars to QLD CSG field in this very bad economical conditions, would make new investments in NSW. (And a pipeline is a another huge investment) 

I can say that the NSW and VIC gas explorers' tenements are good for domestic electricty production in gas power plants. Because we have target to reduce the carbon emissions to 20/20, most coal power plants will be replaced with gas power plants, and the new power plants will run with gas. NSW and VIC gas emmisions are terribly and emberessingly high for Australia! Most of them are brown coal power plants. A CCPP (combines cycle gas and steam power plant) produces 70% less carbon emission than a brown coal power plant and 50% less than black coal power plant. Interesting isn't it! we are killing the world. The worst is VIC, unfortunately they are paying for it now. (I am an ex victorian) 

Also, QLD's CSG is so much important for those big guys that they will export it to mainly to China and India which have very little domestic gas usage at the moment. In comparison to the other countries in the region like Japan, Korea and even Taiwan, they (China and India) they don't use gas, they don't know about it,.. for now. So that is the expectation that those market will emerge soon and there will eb big gas shortage. (I will post the number later on)


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## anatol (2 March 2009)

Regarding to the AOE and BG fight;
I think this fight will end up this way ; AOE/Shell front will come up with more than 45% at least and will force BG to give up some tenements. That would be the best reasonable business solution for both sides. They wouldn't kill each others.

The reason I am thinking this, I had a scenario; I believe BG had some discussions with AOE for a takeover offer (of AOE) last year but could not get a positive result. Then silence. AOE put the bid on PES, thought that they would buy it comfortably, didn't think BG would make and attack. (That was their biggest mistake) Then BG threatened AOE that they would not let AOE to takeover PES and pushed AOE to discuss the takeover again. But AOE refused again. BG accepted that they would not be able to buy AOE anymore. Then BG become very serious after AOE's this much challenging and put the crazy bids on PES (sorry, to me they were crazy bids). Now they saw that there is no solution, AOE's associates (not official) are buying those shares. So both sides have to be reasonable from now on. So they will share PES. So it is better to sell those PES shares and get out the mess.

Regarding to Shell's attitude; (this my perspective in the means of business) This is a very big company (6-7 times bigger than BG). AOE directors are talking and discussing the issues with some Shell managers here. Those managers are not the guys who are making those big decisions in such short times (buying AOE or bidding on $1b PES takeover). By the way QLD coal CSG issue is not a big deal for Shell either. They have a very big LNG export facilities investment in Qatar who has the second largest natural gas (not CSG!) reserves in the world. And Qatar is the only and biggest LNG exporter to Asia from Middle East (mostly to Japan who has more consumption than the total of whole Asia). So QLD CSG reserves are too small for them. So what is the rush for them! AOE sould look after themselves.

AOE directors are so smart, they saw this situation, which Shell would not help them much. Shell did not do anything other than making an announcement of "looking for a LNG plant land in Curtis Island" during the PES war either. Then AOE could not bid anymore than %7.16, but made their own strategy to buy as much as PES shares and increase their % in it. Then they wuld bargain for some tenements as they don't need the money but the gas, like BG. 

Maybe, maybe,.. If above thesis is right (Shell is not very supportive to AOE is proven) BG may put a hostile bid on AEO after everything has settled down. This might happen easily if AOE SP is still under $3. I can see a good chance for this. Because AOE will have a very good position with those tenements. There is a very good logic in that takeover and it is viable. That would be the best business decison of BG then. I have the whole tenements map, I can see BG's and AOE tenements are all coming all next to each others. 

By the way, it is necessary to say that the best gas fields (between Roma and Emerald) are already taken over by Santos and Origin. BG and AOE are working on their leftovers. PES and BG have a few pieces over there. 

Those BOW, BUL, MPO, etc small explorers have small or big acreages in between those AOE and BG tenements in Bowen Basin (I am including PES in AOE and BG from now on), but they are not sitting on efficient gas fields (other a few of them). So those small guys will not be very important for BG and AOE. I wouldn't make any investment on them unless I have some spare money to invest on the cheapest one like BUL.  

So that best option for me to hold my AOE shares and see what would happen after this BG fight ends. (I am fully in AOE)


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## anatol (2 March 2009)

Another news : From Eureka Report (needs to be a member to see this news)

Citi rates AOE as Buy, High Risk 27/02/2009 04:00PM
AOE -- Arrow Energy NL
The broker expected a profit and Arrow posted a loss, which doesn't sound promising, so the broker has reduced future profit expectations. 
This is not the prime focus however, that being LNG potential, and the broker has actually increased its target from $4.57 to $4.86 to account for reserve increases. With a strong balance sheet, the broker retains Buy. 
Target price is $4.86 Current Price is $2.69 Difference:$2.17 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Citi forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents . 
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 96.07. 
Market Sentiment: 0.7


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## Dangerous (2 March 2009)

anatol said:


> Yes BG is not a smart company IMO because BG failed twice. They underestimated Origin, they lost it. They overestimated QGC, they got it. So they need PES.




*My comments on the KAR thread should be read...  *CSG is a very unreliable feed gas for LNG - why do you think Shell is taking so long to move.

Anatol, IMO you are correct - BG need PES (although a huge understatement)


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## anatol (2 March 2009)

Dangerous said:


> *My comments on the KAR thread should be read...  *CSG is a very unreliable feed gas for LNG - why do you think Shell is taking so long to move.
> 
> Anatol, IMO you are correct - BG need PES (although a huge understatement)




What I said before was "BG needs more than PES.  PES is not BG's real target. It is AOE". I still insist on this idea and posted the above thought last night.


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## beerwm (2 March 2009)

Anatol;

BG would not make a $1,000,000,000 bid for PES, just to "punish" AOE. And certainly not offer them $8.25 for shares they picked up for <$1.00. 

-and why would the buy a stake in PES at $5.00+ then? if they intended to T/O PES all along. <$3

Shell's intentions are not of pure business. Take their 10-15% stake in PES, they were happy to sell to AOE at $5.00, but now have gone silent. If it was purely business they would of accepted or intended to accept BG's superior offer. Shell's intentions arent entirely clear.

And why would BG make a hostile bid for AOE now? they have inflated AOE's price by upping the bid for PES [ie. csg], and why wouldnt they make a T/O after AOE acquired PES.

-

Basically, BG has contracts and need CSG. PES is great value at $8.25. So BG must be very happy with themselves, they have upped their reserves at a good price.

AOE dont have the money BG has.


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## Mad Mel (2 March 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> They have a small part of Arrow and a small part of Pure (spoiling stakes). That may give them enough gas for the small LNG plant but probably not enough for their proposed larger plant(s) on Curtis Is. I would have thought _they _would try for PES rather than see it go to BG. If not PES, then their target must be Arrow, no?




Shell may go a completely different direction:  Santos.  Santos has both gas, and a site for a LNG facility.   To be honest, I will be completely surprised if STO isn't bought by one of RDS or XOM (or maybe even BG) in the next year.


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## Dangerous (2 March 2009)

Mad Mel said:


> Shell may go a completely different direction:  Santos.  Santos has both gas, and a site for a LNG facility.   To be honest, I will be completely surprised if STO isn't bought by one of RDS or XOM (or maybe even BG) in the next year.




would be acquirers are worried about the indonesian mud flow that won't stop.... it's a nightmare



((((((____________________0)


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## anatol (3 March 2009)

Mad Mel said:


> Shell may go a completely different direction:  Santos.  Santos has both gas, and a site for a LNG facility.   To be honest, I will be completely surprised if STO isn't bought by one of RDS or XOM (or maybe even BG) in the next year.




Yes, Dangerous explained. Santos has a very big problem with the Mud flow caused by their drilling in Indenosia. Some other big guy was looking to takeover Santos but they hesitated because of that big risk over Santos.


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## anatol (3 March 2009)

beerwm said:


> Anatol;
> 
> BG would not make a $1,000,000,000 bid for PES, just to "punish" AOE. And certainly not offer them $8.25 for shares they picked up for <$1.00.
> 
> ...




Sorry Berrwm, I am tired of talking on the same issues. I have alrady explained the answer of all your questions before on my post (In PEs and AOE threads). I told the scenario above. It is just a scenario. We'll see in the future. It may happen or not. And this is a think-tank here.


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## TheAbyss (3 March 2009)

All over bar the shouting now. Shell have sold their stake in PES to BG. That will be the end of the counter offers for sure.

Congratulations to all PES holders.


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## oldblue (3 March 2009)

So Shell have decided to accept BG's offer in the absence of a better one.

Now where does that leave AOE, sitting with 19% odd or taking the cash and trying for something else, like BOW?


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## basilio (3 March 2009)

Looks like game over with PES and at least a fairer result for shareholders than originally suggested by AOE.

Any thoughts on the next targets for AOE?


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## beerwm (3 March 2009)

I'm not sure if its gameover yet, AOE considering their 'options' is getting annoying though, and im glad this is finally drawing to a close with a push from Shell.

I'll be selling once BG gets 50.1%, thats gameover i feel.

as for next targets;

I cant see AOE going into NSW, and BOW doesnt make much sense.

WCL - who should have results in the coming months, would be my bet.
many seem to think BPT's share of TiponWest, but i dont think it represents good value.


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## Dukey (3 March 2009)

So - Shell did 'take the money and run'. 

- obviously just about impossible for AOE now - I'd say the best they can hope for is to hold out and bargain for a bite of decent PES tenements, and then go looking elsewhere.....

Not sure who or where - WCL's main CSG interests were farm-ins (50% I think) to SHG tenements - since bought by QGC - since bought by BG !!!... so I don't see much chance for AOE there.
The reason I bought MEL is that less than 150k of pipeline will see them able to feed into SEQld - the fastest growing part of Oz (last time i checked). I'm sure I remember elec supply problems in SEQ at various peak demand times in the not to distant past. --> ie. they need more electricity!

But anyway - both MEL and WCL and all the others have their own threads - there are various amounts of research there already.
---------
BG may indeed be interested in AOE too - _but only at the right price_ - and the trouble is the price they are now paying for PES should mean they would have to pay an almost crazy price to win AOE. I'm not gonna do the numbers - but rest assured they would be BIG. Around $5Bill just on AOE's 2P reserves alone (2500 odd PJ! -not too shabby) - not even thinking about powerplants, infrastructure, asian ventures etc. 
That's why I think if BG really wanted AOE, they would have just let them swallow PES cheaply and then gone for the lot (AOE and PES together). They are smart enough to know that - so I can only presume they didn't want AOE (unless it's very cheap). 

_AOE to hold out for split up of PES - is where my money is at the moment._


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## Dukey (3 March 2009)

A question - can anyone think of a way i can avoid selling PES till next Fin year!!!   - and obviously still get $8+.!!

any ideas? This year is already gonna kill me in tax!

(maybe some others are in a similar position?).


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## anatol (4 March 2009)

anatol said:


> Regarding to Shell's attitude; ... CSG reserves are too small for them. So what is the rush for them! AOE sould look after themselves.
> 
> AOE directors are so smart, they saw this situation, which Shell would not help them much. Shell did not do anything other than making an announcement of "looking for a LNG plant land in Curtis Island" during the PES war either. Then AOE .... made their own strategy to buy as much as PES shares and increase their % in it. Then they would bargain for some tenements as they don't need the money but the gas, like BG.
> 
> Maybe, maybe,.. If above thesis is right (Shell is not very supportive to AOE is proven) BG may put a hostile bid on AEO after everything has settled down. This might happen easily if AOE SP is still under $3. I can see a good chance for this. Because AOE will have a very good position with those tenements. There is a very good logic in that takeover and it is viable. That would be the best business decison of BG then. I have the whole tenements map, I can see BG's and AOE tenements are all coming all next to each others.




This was what I said yesterday. It is proven today. Now the third stage. AOE will be taken over by BG. There is no other option for AOE now as its partnership with Shell is destroyed and it is all alone. No more dance with the wolves.

They will hammer the SP of AOE now. After bringing it at around $2 then put the hostile bid, I think at maybe at around $3.2-3.5 (It includes $20 of PES). Total price might be around $2.5b. It might be very reasonable for many shareholders at this bad conditions.


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## Dangerous (4 March 2009)

i don't see this being good for AOE or their shareholders.  It is clear that BG don't want AOE or else they would have let them swallow PES at the $5 mark or whatever it was, wait around while the share price goes down due to the dilution and then snap them up and in effect get PES for half the price...

the question for me is - are Shell moving to the Voelte side of the ring in terms of their view on CSG... For AOE i hope not!  That said, they are not exactly chafing at the bit to get CSG acreage.  My gut says Shell will walk away from QLD.


(BTW Anatol - i too own AOE so not having a dig)


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## jancha (4 March 2009)

Hi Dangerous. Are you saying that Shell could see the writing on the wall.... paid 700mil for a 30% stake of AOE & 10% of PES just to make a quick buck & then walk away leaving it to BG never really having any interest in CSG? Do you feel that Bg & Shell are in control here, just playing it out & the loser  being AOE?


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## beerwm (4 March 2009)

Shell would of had some pressure to accept the BG Offer anyway,

Accepting a $5.00 but not accepting an $8.00 would of raised some question with the regulators.


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## Dangerous (4 March 2009)

jancha said:


> Hi Dangerous. Are you saying that Shell could see the writing on the wall.... paid 700mil for a 30% stake of AOE & 10% of PES just to make a quick buck & then walk away leaving it to BG never really having any interest in CSG? Do you feel that Bg & Shell are in control here, just playing it out & the loser  being AOE?





I don't think they were in it for the quick buck, but rather all the cool kids were looking at CSG so they are doing feasability.  They are either getting close to taking AOE or have decided to leave it at 30%.  That said, they will move slower than BG so perhaps it could take a few a months to play out.

Still a lot of hands to play in this game.  There is no way there will be more than two plants at Gladstone.  ORG, STO and BG are all using the same CP designed plants by memory.  Add to that the fact that there will only be one pipe to Gladstone and there are still a lot of exciting developments for us to log on to ASF and have a good old BS.

Notice BOW's reserves certification folks?  Only 28c/share on PES values by my quick calcs.  Interestingly AOE is worth about $3.28 on the PES valuation (3P that is) and they are far more developed than the little guys.  So why does the mkt value them at $2.50???  Hence the pessimism


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## Dangerous (4 March 2009)

OIP are a NSW explorer with more cash in the bank than their market cap!  Why has the market not jumped on them yet?  Any idea anyone?

It appears to be a cigar butt as Buffet would say


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## subi1 (4 March 2009)

jancha said:


> Hi Dangerous. Are you saying that Shell could see the writing on the wall.... paid 700mil for a 30% stake of AOE & 10% of PES just to make a quick buck & then walk away leaving it to BG never really having any interest in CSG? Do you feel that Bg & Shell are in control here, just playing it out & the loser  being AOE?




Shell don't own 30% of Arrow. They own 30% of their Qld acreage and 10% of their international properties(excl India)

Also Shell haven't sold to BG yet. They are saying they will accept BG'S offer unless a superior offer comes in.

Arrow have said they are still thinking about the takeover and they might come back with another offer(WHO KNOWS). 

There still could be more action here and we should find out within the next few weeks.

All this is my opinion of what is going on and I suggest everybody read the announcements from Arrow & PES to get all the facts.


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## Dukey (4 March 2009)

So - current state of play:

BG - ~45% of PES (unless a higher bid comes along, which appears unlikely but not impossible).

AOE - 20%.   the on market buying by AOE does not seem to have eventuated - unless they are somehow doing it very quietly, and waiting to drop a bombshell.

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as for BG buying AOE after all this... I'd say they will have to pay at least $6 per AOE share - more like $7-$9.
Don't see that happening too soon. Would have made much more sense to take AOE and PES in one bite.

... but again - NOT impossible.

-e


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## Logique (5 March 2009)

'Bout right Dukey, in my opinion. 

The question still occupying my mind is: what the hell are Shell playing at. Now saying they will sell into the BG bid. Not earning much admiration for the way they've conducted themselves through this. I predicted a stalemate between the two consortiums, but if Shell sell out there's a good chance BG will now get the controlling stake in PES. 

This will not be helpful for the AOE share price, so if BG are thinking future AOE takeover - having secured most of PES they could afford to sit back and wait for the right time. At what price? The PES deal has upped the bar, so I agree $6 would be a minimum, possibly much more, but no rush now for BG.


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## Dukey (9 March 2009)

Mmmm - interesting announcement today from BG - they have gained only 1.5Mill PES shares in the last 6 days - about 1.x %.

I guess this means folks are either selling on market (as you would) or holding on tight to see what happens, rather than going to BG. 

slow progress for them.

and who is buying on market?


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## Ross Walker (9 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> I guess this means folks are either selling on market (as you would) or holding on tight to see what happens, rather than going to BG.




So Dukey, have you sold yet, or still holding? How about you Grace? I may sell my remaining stake on market. Seems BG may have trouble getting 90%.

R.


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## subi1 (9 March 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> So Dukey, have you sold yet, or still holding? How about you Grace? I may sell my remaining stake on market. Seems BG may have trouble getting 90%.
> 
> R.




Is it possible Arrow will still come back? From what I read in Arrow's latest announcement they were still considering their takeover offer. I didn't think it was all over but I guess only time will tell.

Anybody else waiting to see what happens?


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## Dukey (9 March 2009)

Ross Walker said:


> So Dukey, have you sold yet, or still holding? How about you Grace? I may sell my remaining stake on market. Seems BG may have trouble getting 90%.
> 
> R.




No - still holding out... Arrow have been so quiet - I can't help wondering what they are up to. And with BG's holding growing ever so slowly... well BG are only paying similar value/PJ to what they payed for QGC.  Less than some other csg transactions... so just maybe AOE are digging up funds somewhere for another tilt. But I really think BG are determined.

+ I don't want to sell this year!!


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## grace (9 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> No - still holding out... Arrow have been so quiet - I can't help wondering what they are up to. And with BG's holding growing ever so slowly... well BG are only paying similar value/PJ to what they payed for QGC.  Less than some other csg transactions... so just maybe AOE are digging up funds somewhere for another tilt. But I really think BG are determined.
> 
> + I don't want to sell this year!!




Parted with a few more.  Holding the balance to see if we get $8.25 or higher.  Dukey, there are a lot of people who would love to be in your tax situation!


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## Dukey (16 March 2009)

grace said:


> Parted with a few more.  Holding the balance to see if we get $8.25 or higher.  Dukey, there are a lot of people who would love to be in your tax situation!




SOLD my few measly PES shares today Grace since AOE appear to be out of the race.    no off market buying to be seen.

Another CSG gem bites the dust.  and the tax man will get his share  - but I only had a few thou, so he'll barely notice my donation to the cause. i've a few duds to sell to even up the score a bit too. I still wish I had bought more every time I'd said I should.

... but now comes the task of trying to ID the next big CSG jumper or t/o target.

One would think Arrow will be on the hunt - having missed out on PES - and they might be thinking the sooner the better, before prices / PJ rise even more.

- E.


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## grace (23 March 2009)

BG offer expires today.  Not really sure what to do with the balance.  BG should extend the offer one would think.  Looks like Shell have accepted now with BG holding 49%.  When will Arrow accept...if they want to???  This is the question I would love to know the answer of.


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## grace (23 March 2009)

BG holding 70% now and offer extended.  Thankyou very kindly, I am holding out for $8.25 on my last holding.  I think BG will get there now, we are on the homeward run.


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