# S.A. is in recession says ANZ, who's next?



## numbercruncher (14 August 2007)

> South Australian Treasurer Kevin Foley has angrily denied the state is in recession, rejecting a report by the ANZ Bank which paints a bleak picture of the state's economy.
> 
> The SA Liberal Opposition has launched a stinging attack on the state government's economic credentials, pointing to an analysis published in the bi-annual ANZ Australian Property Outlook.
> 
> The report said despite strong growth in the housing market, SA was in a technical recession following two consecutive quarters of negative growth.




http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=286233

As they say, nothing is more true than when its been officially denied?


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## Judd (14 August 2007)

Ah, ha!  The technical, aka newspaper headline, definition of recession.  An alternative is that of the USA National Bureau of Economic Research which is:

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03.​
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html


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## Kimosabi (14 August 2007)

USA Definition of Recession:

"Fudge the figures for as long as possible and hope nobody notices"


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## doctorj (14 August 2007)

Judd said:


> Ah, ha! The technical, aka newspaper headline, definition of recession. An alternative is that of the USA National Bureau of Economic Research which is...



Sounds like a convenient way of reducing the use of the "R" word by attaching to it a very subjective definition.

Two consecutive qtrs of -ve growth and you have a recession.  Anything else is just politics.


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## The Mint Man (14 August 2007)

NSW wouldnt be far behind would we?


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## chops_a_must (14 August 2007)

It's South Australia, who cares?

When you live in such a huge hole, how is it possible that anything isn't on a permanent decline?


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## Smurf1976 (14 August 2007)

I don't have the latest figures but NSW and Tas have both been in or damn near the technical definition of recession over the past 12 months.

It's pretty hard to fix in NSW since the economy is so large and diverse. 

In Tas it's pretty well accepted at the moment that the line between recession and boom depends on what Gunns, Hydro and Alinta do with their major projects.


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## DB008 (15 August 2007)

But if Olympic Dam/Roxbery Downs gets off the ground soon, expansion wise, it won't be in a "R" for long. They are talking about the camp going to 6000. With that many people getting paid and average, ohhh lets say 120k per year, it'll help the economy alot for sure.


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## krisbarry (15 August 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> It's South Australia, who cares?
> 
> When you live in such a huge hole, how is it possible that anything isn't on a permanent decline?





lol, by the time they dig up all of W.A. in the latest resource boom, there will be nothing left but a huge hole too.

...and following on from that WA will be in a huge hole, within a hole, when the resource boom ends


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## Nicks (15 August 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> It's South Australia, who cares?
> 
> When you live in such a huge hole, how is it possible that anything isn't on a permanent decline?




Real mature.

With countrymen like this its hard to feel proud of being a united Australian.

Next war (if there ever is one, hopefully not) it might just be a South Aussie fighting next to you.

I care about every inch of this country and everyone in it, including people like chops. Been to all parts of this fine country inlcuding the fine city of Perth recently. I feel sorry you have such a view chops.

Some world class mines, wines, athletes and culture in South Australia.


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## tech/a (15 August 2007)

Posted this on another thread.

My company is involved in Civil Construction both Commercial and domestic in Adelaide.
We keep a solid eye on market movements.
There is absolutely NO indication of even a slowdown.
Infact the industry as a whole is struggling to service works as it currently stands.

I have seen more tenders and secured more work in the last 6 mths than ever before for the same period.
Ive been in business 30 yrs and this is crazy! Far busier than pre GST.

We import steel from Africa and Asia.I am having trouble filling indent orders.
I'm also looking for 2 excavators and cant find what I want anywhere in Australia 6 mths ago when I enquired there were 9 suitable.

Suppliers are ALL sadly behind in delivery times.
I cant find subcontractors to handle our overflow they ALL have their own overflow.
Clients are waiting rediculous amounts of time (And patiently) for us to complete works (often 4 mths to get to site for domestic).

*Chops.*
If you were ever in a deep hole I'll bet a South Aussie would extend a hand.
Lets hope Nicks is off the mark,I wouldnt want to haul your sorry aaarrrse out of harms way!


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## reece55 (15 August 2007)

Chops
Clearly you a just a wanka mate, because I wouldn't say that about any other state in Australia as a South Australian..... Very mature indeed! Last time I checked, our state (SA) has many great things to offer....... You had better stop drinking any form of wine, because most of comes from down here in one way or another!

I'm with Tech - as an accountant in S.A., we have so much work, we are all behind, every department, there are no quality employees left - if you ask me, everything here in SA is very healthy! In fact, it's growth that is an issue here, not the lack of economic growth - we can't keep up. Just wait until the Olympic Dam expansion goes through and Prominent Hill is up......

Cheers and go SA!!!!!!!!!


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## chops_a_must (15 August 2007)

reece55 said:


> Chops
> Clearly you a just a wanka mate, because I wouldn't say that about any other state in Australia as a South Australian..... Very mature indeed! Last time I checked, our state (SA) has many great things to offer....... You had better stop drinking any form of wine, because most of comes from down here in one way or another!
> 
> I'm with Tech - as an accountant in S.A., we have so much work, we are all behind, every department, there are no quality employees left - if you ask me, everything here in SA is very healthy! In fact, it's growth that is an issue here, not the lack of economic growth - we can't keep up. Just wait until the Olympic Dam expansion goes through and Prominent Hill is up......
> ...




Oh come on, Lol! I'm just trying to get everyone to laugh at the moment.

And I would say exactly the same about my own state...


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## tech/a (15 August 2007)

*I wouldnt advise stand up as a profession.---choppy*


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## moXJO (15 August 2007)

reece55 said:


> Chops
> Clearly you a just a wanka mate, because I wouldn't say that about any other state in Australia as a South Australian..... Very mature indeed! Last time I checked, our state (SA) has many great things to offer....... You had better stop drinking any form of wine, because most of comes from down here in one way or another!
> 
> I'm with Tech - as an accountant in S.A., we have so much work, we are all behind, every department, there are no quality employees left - if you ask me, everything here in SA is very healthy! In fact, it's growth that is an issue here, not the lack of economic growth - we can't keep up. Just wait until the Olympic Dam expansion goes through and Prominent Hill is up......
> ...




Lol he is just taking the pi$$ whats more AUS than that.With all those churches down there if he was serious God would of turned him into a pillar of salt.

On the side ,Construction last year in NSW was real quiet but has picked up again these last 3-4 months.


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## toothfairy (15 August 2007)

I am starting to feel really Bullish at the moment as more and more members of this forum is talking down the stock market, property market, talking up interest rates and recessions in every parts of the globe. 
Remember? Confucius (or some wise guru) said when everyone is euphoric that's when the Bear comes! Not for a while by the look of things here.


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## wayneL (15 August 2007)

toothfairy said:


> I am starting to feel really Bullish at the moment as more and more members of this forum is talking down the stock market, property market, talking up interest rates and recessions in every parts of the globe.
> Remember? Confucius (or some wise guru) said when everyone is euphoric that's when the Bear comes! Not for a while by the look of things here.



Yeah but too many people know about that now. Time to fade the contrarians. :


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## toothfairy (15 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Yeah but too many people know about that now. Time to fade the contrarians. :




Is it a time frame for this sort of thing?


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## Sprinter79 (15 August 2007)

I reckon WA should secede from the rest of Australia so we can keep all the goodies to ourself





























and marry our cousins :


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## Kathmandu (15 August 2007)

Sprinter79 said:


> I reckon WA should secede from the rest of Australia so we can keep all the goodies to ourself
> and marry our cousins :




Part of it did a while back


http://www.hutt-river-province.com/new_page_3.htm

Dave


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## chops_a_must (15 August 2007)

tech/a said:


> *I wouldnt advise stand up as a profession.---choppy*




I wouldn't advise people on this forum to be an audience.


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## niknah (15 August 2007)

Could be the US next...

http://www.reuters.com/article/reut...59_ARTICLE_PROMO_also_on_reuters&pageNumber=3


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## theasxgorilla (16 August 2007)

tech/a said:


> My company is involved in Civil Construction both Commercial and domestic in Adelaide.
> We keep a solid eye on market movements.
> There is absolutely NO indication of even a slowdown.
> Infact the industry as a whole is struggling to service works as it currently stands.




I also have some friends in business tech/a and they're often my best source of info on the real deal.  Some are in retail and they notice from week-to-week when its quiet.  The sharemarket can be booming, I can be flat out at work with projects etc., and they'll tell me that they're worried because it's been unseasonally quiet.

Markets and economies are so complex and therefore still incredibly inefficient, even with our advanced information technology.  At the end of the day, an economy is a massively unimaginable amount of money sloshing around and around.  It might be real news to some people that a tabloid newspaper headline statistic has very little bearing on how much of that money will find its way into or out of your bank account.


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## theasxgorilla (16 August 2007)

reece55 said:


> I'm with Tech - as an accountant in S.A., we have so much work, we are all behind, every department, there are no quality employees left - if you ask me, everything here in SA is very healthy!




Actually, I second that, we were sending people from other states to SA because all the good people in the market were already taken.

Maybe Australia could cull a few journalists and economists, get them working in professions where they're needed?


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