# Technical Analysis - Potential Trading Opportunities



## Client

In this thread I want to share my technical analysis of stocks price charts as well as indexes, currencies, metals. I hope you will find something useful here for your profitable trading.
Few days ago I found an interesting stock which seems to be excellent for trading right now.
See the weekly chart below. Click the images to have a better resolution.






Few months ago the price reached the top at $44 and now found support at $40. The last 2 week's rollback seems to have only few chances to brake through resistance level of this steep channel. This is confirmed by small trading volume that declined during the upside rally.
Now lets look at the daily chart.




As you can see, there is a bearish engulfing pattern that happened near the upper trendline. This is a strong bearish argument together with the wave count. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the fourth wave has just finished developing (possible zigzag) and now the last one is going to occur. Presumably, the price will fall to the level of $40.


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## Client

*Re: Technical Analysis - The Best Securities To Trade At the Moment*

It looks like bears are starting to drag the Dow Jones index (DJI) down. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that after reaching the resistance level the price went down below a significant trendline.Last few weeks there was a rollback which, presumably, will get to the trendline that priviously used to be a support for the global upside movement.




The daily chart below shows the perspectives of the index. The last bar is a long-legged doji (or a highwave) according to the candlestick technique. This means that the market "lost its orientation" and reversal movement is possible. Besides the price reached a 61.8% Fibbonacci level which is an important point. The only thing that suggests the upside way for us is that the price went above Moving Avarage (34). In this case we should look for another resistance level which is 10507.


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## Client

Another stock to consider - CRAY (Cray Inc.)
The bottom was reached about a month ago and then 2 bullish candlestick patterns occurred - 3 inside up and Highwave. It looks like there is going to be at least a correction but a new upside trend is also highly possible. See the weekly chart below.




$6 point is the first candidate for resistance as it is the middle of the long bearish candle and at the same time it is the bottom of the previous smaller correction.
On the daily chart of CRAY there are 2 resistance levels to consider. 




The upper channel line creates a very strong resistance together with the level of about $5.70. Despite that the price have all the chances to break above that level. This assumption is based on the Elliott Wave Principle that we applied here. If the count is correct, we are witnessing the beginning of a new upside trend. If not, then in any case the price should reach the top of the channel. From that point caution is advised to avoid losses from downward rollback.


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## Client

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR ticker) definitely has a trading potential. I think it's not the time to trade it right now but keep watching it. Let me explain why:
Not so long ago the price fell below the uptrend line but retraced. Nevertheless, recent upside movement looks like a correction before further decline. See the weekly charts below.









Three long bearish candles formed the Identical 3 Crows model which is a sign of a bearish market and in most cases price falling continues after some period of fluctuation. Trading volume was comparatively law during last few weeks meaning that recent growing is not supported by orders to buy.
Lets analyse the daily bars.




This time we can clearly see an impulse wave that consists of 5 smaller waves. And as you may know, the first impulse can't be the last one. I mean that further bigger downward movement will continue soon after this correction is over. 
Tower Bottom and Hammer models as well as the gap (window) form support for possible price fall. It is still unclear when this upside rollback will end but ASR may go to $53 point (Fibo 61.8%) or even reach the nearest resistance level.


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## tech/a

Great if it wasnt such *blatent advertising*.
Suprised its lasted this long unless of course your a financial sponsor of the site.


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## Client

tech/a said:


> Great if...



If it's great, just enjoy it without any *IF*s


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## tech/a

Client said:


> If it's great, just enjoy it without any *IF*s




Not that great.

Analysis of ANY kind simply anticipates a move.
Its NOT the analysis (Any type of analysis) that makes money.
When people find this out the *Need* to be right through analysis dissolves.

What gets up my nose is deceptive posting with a hidden agenda which clearly you have.


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## nulla nulla

Client said:


> Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR ticker) definitely has a trading potential. I think it's not the time to trade it right now but keep watching it. Let me explain why:
> Not so long ago the price fell below the uptrend line but retraced. Nevertheless, recent upside movement looks like a correction before further decline. See the weekly charts below.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Three long bearish candles formed the Identical 3 Crows model which is a sign of a bearish market and in most cases price falling continues after some period of fluctuation. Trading volume was comparatively law during last few weeks meaning that recent growing is not supported by orders to buy.
> Lets analyse the daily bars.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This time we can clearly see an impulse wave that consists of 5 smaller waves. And as you may know, the first impulse can't be the last one. I mean that further bigger downward movement will continue soon after this correction is over.
> Tower Bottom and Hammer models as well as the gap (window) form support for possible price fall. It is still unclear when this upside rollback will end but ASR may go to $53 point (Fibo 61.8%) or even reach the nearest resistance level.




Interesting how people see different things in a chart. In your third chart I see resistance at 54, 56 & 57. The first two peaks of 54 & 56 were followed by sell offs bouncing off 51 & 52 respectively which became support levels. However the sell off after the peak at 57 plunged through these support levels for a brief rally off 48 only to fall back to 47 where it appears to have formed a reverse head and shoulders to rally back to 50. I see the bounce off 47 as a new support level.
From the rally to 50 it has crawled sideways and slightly upwards. It appears to be moving within a downward channel. It needs to break through 53 or is at risk of falling back to test the support level at 47. If it falls through the support level of 47 it could test 44 which is where I see the bottom of the channel.


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## tech/a

nulla nulla said:


> Interesting how people see different things in a chart. In your third chart I see resistance at 54, 56 & 57. The first two peaks of 54 & 56 were followed by sell offs bouncing off 51 & 52 respectively which became support levels. However the sell off after the peak at 57 plunged through these support levels for a brief rally off 48 only to fall back to 47 where it appears to have formed a reverse head and shoulders to rally back to 50. I see the bounce off 47 as a new support level.
> From the rally to 50 it has crawled sideways and slightly upwards. It appears to be moving within a downward channel. It needs to break through 53 or is at risk of falling back to test the support level at 47. If it falls through the support level of 47 it could test 44 which is where I see the bottom of the channel.




Actually we all see the same thing.

An anticipation of something to happen or not to happen.
It makes no difference what you use to analyse a companies chart or its balance sheet.

There will always be claims of Holy Grails.

I have my own.

*"In any attempt to increase wealth you need only do one thing.
Income must exceed expenditure".*

Now whether that be in Business/Property or Trading there are millions of ways of honoring that statement and millions of ways of failing it.

Analysis ALONE will not guarantee Income over expenditure--analysis fails.
Even the soundest of Money Management Principals can also fail---No amount of sound MM will save a flawed Business/Trading model.

*The holy grail is *the ability to skew Business/Property and or Trading to a positive expectancy and maintain it.

The rare few in all fields are/become extremely good at it and the majority are miserable.

So ask yourself this every time you have an expectation.
"Will what I do satisfy the "Grail" if so How?

Stick it on your Desk!


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## Client

tech/a said:


> Not that great.
> Analysis of ANY kind simply anticipates a move.



Exactly. I don't try to play God Allmighty. I just to anticipate according to what I see on the chart. 



> What gets up my nose is deceptive posting with a hidden agenda which clearly you have.



I don't spam and simply write stock chart analysis which is my point of view like any other post on this forum. Nobody asks you to pay for it or follow any links. If you don't like it, just ignore this thread.



> rally off 48 only to fall back to 47 where it appears to have formed a reverse head and shoulders to rally back to 50



I think there were no reversed head and shoulders because of the lack of the second shoulder. It is not formed yet. If the price falls down from that point to nearly previous bottom then we can say about reversed head and shoulders...
Or maybe I just didn't understand you correctly (?)


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## Lachlan6

tech/a said:


> Actually we all see the same thing.
> 
> An anticipation of something to happen or not to happen.
> It makes no difference what you use to analyse a companies chart or its balance sheet.
> 
> There will always be claims of Holy Grails.
> 
> I have my own.
> 
> *"In any attempt to increase wealth you need only do one thing.
> Income must exceed expenditure".*
> 
> Now whether that be in Business/Property or Trading there are millions of ways of honoring that statement and millions of ways of failing it.
> 
> Analysis ALONE will not guarantee Income over expenditure--analysis fails.
> Even the soundest of Money Management Principals can also fail---No amount of sound MM will save a flawed Business/Trading model.
> 
> *The holy grail is *the ability to skew Business/Property and or Trading to a positive expectancy and maintain it.
> 
> The rare few in all fields are/become extremely good at it and the majority are miserable.
> 
> So ask yourself this every time you have an expectation.
> "Will what I do satisfy the "Grail" if so How?
> 
> Stick it on your Desk!




Absolutely spot on Tech/a. You certainly do make sense, refreshing to hear. The analysis however is good to look at but just as Tech/a says one can put too much emphasis on analysis at the risk of foregoing the absolute fundamental point- Money Management.


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## Client

As shown on the weekly chart, after falling to the support line in February Expedia Inc (EXPE) went north. 2 bullish patterns preceded this upside movement: High Wave and Tower Bottom.




Additionally, Rising 3 methods pattern was formed on the daily chart. This is a continuation pattern which tells us now that the price may go up further. But the question is "How high?". Most probably, this whole upside rally is a correction of the previous steep downside movement and it looks like a zigzag. As you can see on the daily chart, the first wave of that zigzag started about 2 weeks ago from $20.2 and ended at $23. The third and the last wave started at $22. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, these waves are equal in most cases that is why we should wait the price at the point $24.8. 
Apart from that, this level is a 61.8% Fibo and a rather significant resistance level overall. 




Arguments for upside movement:
-    the price couldn’t break the support line and rolled back on the weekly chart;
-    High Wave and Tower Bottom patterns on the weekly chart;
-    the price is beyond MA (34) on the daily chart;
-    3 Rising Methods pattern on the daily chart;
-    presumably, this upside correction will reach 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Arguments for downside movement:
-    the price is still below MA (34) on the weekly chart;
-    steep previous downside movement signalise that bears are in command and the price may fall down soon.


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## brty

client,



> and a rather significant resistance level overall.




no it isn't.

That chart is a terrible example of "significant" support and resistance.

brty


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## bunyip

Client

Thanks for sharing your analysis. 
With all due respect to your methods, in my opinion you're over-analysing, making it unnecessarily complex.

Simpler by far is to find a new trend (they're happening all the time), buy the temporary retracements if it's an uptrend, or short the temporary rallies if it's a downtrend. Do this in stocks in the weakest sectors for shorts, and in stocks in the strongest sectors for longs. 
Stick with the trade until you have evidence that the trend has run out of steam.
Your choice of how you identify a trend, or whether you look for a trend on a couple of timeframes, say weekly and daily. 
But whatever your method of trend identification, find a new trend, wait for it to pause or retrace briefly, climb aboard and go for a ride. 
Some people call it 'putting yourself in front of momentum'. Some call it 'trend hitch-hiking'.

I realise that we don't all trade the same way, and different methods suit different people and different personalities.

My preference is for simplicity - the simpler I make it, the more profitable my results. The successful traders I correspond with all say the same thing.
For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.


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## Client

bunyip said:


> Client
> 
> Thanks for sharing your analysis.
> With all due respect to your methods, in my opinion you're over-analysing, making it unnecessarily complex.
> 
> Simpler by far is to find a new trend (they're happening all the time), buy the temporary retracements if it's an uptrend, or short the temporary rallies if it's a downtrend. Do this in stocks in the weakest sectors for shorts, and in stocks in the strongest sectors for longs.
> Stick with the trade until you have evidence that the trend has run out of steam.
> Your choice of how you identify a trend, or whether you look for a trend on a couple of timeframes, say weekly and daily.
> But whatever your method of trend identification, find a new trend, wait for it to pause or retrace briefly, climb aboard and go for a ride.
> Some people call it 'putting yourself in front of momentum'. Some call it 'trend hitch-hiking'.
> 
> I realise that we don't all trade the same way, and different methods suit different people and different personalities.
> 
> My preference is for simplicity - the simpler I make it, the more profitable my results. The successful traders I correspond with all say the same thing.
> For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.




Actually, I do the same. Like they say, the trend continues more often than changes its direction. We just need to catch its continuation... But hte charts above may be not the best examples of it. Well... good charts and trends will come later, I am sure of that )


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## MRC & Co

This thread/method is so 'technical' I wonder if it even works!  It's like reading a TA book!  

Where is some insight?


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## Mr J

Trendlines, channels, moving averages, fibos, horizontals, elliot waves, candlestick patterns, downward rollback, upside correction, and a 3 way high wave rising tower bottom. Feel like I'm singing the 12 days of Christmas .


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## Client

Alcoa Inc (AA), one of the Dow Jones listed stocks, fell below the weekly trendline to the MA (34). This fall was started by a bearish engulfing pattern about 2 months ago. Now the price is in corrective movement with low trading volume. If the long red bar occurs next week, a continuation bearish pattern will be formed.




On the daily chart this correction seems to have a form of an ascending triangle. According to various technical analysis theories Triangle is a continuation pattern and after (if) the price breaches the lower ascending line, the downside movement will continue. Take to attention that the price often breaks the top resistance level of a triangle and quickly retraces back. 
The gap and the middle of the previous long red candle serve as additional resistance levels.


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## tech/a

There is nothing wrong with the analysis but its just analysis with caveat as always for an each way bet.
If you want to trade it then you'd better take an each way punt as the analyst has in his presentation.
Personally I don't like any of them from a technical standpoint as a possible trade.---at least to the long side.


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## explod

bunyip said:


> Client
> 
> Thanks for sharing your analysis.
> With all due respect to your methods, in my opinion you're over-analysing, making it unnecessarily complex.
> 
> Simpler by far is to find a new trend (they're happening all the time), buy the temporary retracements if it's an uptrend, or short the temporary rallies if it's a downtrend. Do this in stocks in the weakest sectors for shorts, and in stocks in the strongest sectors for longs.
> Stick with the trade until you have evidence that the trend has run out of steam.
> Your choice of how you identify a trend, or whether you look for a trend on a couple of timeframes, say weekly and daily.
> But whatever your method of trend identification, find a new trend, wait for it to pause or retrace briefly, climb aboard and go for a ride.
> Some people call it 'putting yourself in front of momentum'. Some call it 'trend hitch-hiking'.
> 
> I realise that we don't all trade the same way, and different methods suit different people and different personalities.
> 
> My preference is for simplicity - the simpler I make it, the more profitable my results. The successful traders I correspond with all say the same thing.
> For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.




*An absolutely top post Bunyip.*   All you newbies get onto this.   Simple stupid is the best way.  No one is smart enough to predict and no mechanism can predict, but they can certainly cloud the picture.

I do not short, that's just me.  Best points for long, (a) the hottest sector, (b) the hottest stock by both uptrend and basic fundamentals, and (c)I will only take on well run stuff;     and I like emerging producers.


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## ThingyMajiggy

So, basically you might as well just have a naked chart, just price and volume? Everything else seems to be a waste of time, TA is useless as a prediction tool yes? Isn't there a bit of predicting going on when one is finding the highest probability patterns? eg. You're predicting its going to bounce off this support which then makes it a high probability trade?


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## explod

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So, basically you might as well just have a naked chart, just price and volume? Everything else seems to be a waste of time, TA is useless as a prediction tool yes? Isn't there a bit of predicting going on when one is finding the highest probability patterns? eg. You're predicting its going to bounce off this support which then makes it a high probability trade?




That is all I use, "Bigcharts" half an hour behind so would not suit some.  It is well worth reading a few books on charting and T/a, I did a lot of that, but keep looking at things from the simple chart and you will soon better define such things as support, resistance, up or/downtrends, sideways consolidation, breakouts, pivot points and so on.   Learning to read patterns comes from the basics and *experience*, over time your intuition does give you considerable success at knowing which way a stock is going.  But that boils down to taking note of a lot that is going on, and has gone on (some tendancies have a habit of repeating), which includes the overall market as well.

The biggest one of all is protecting your trading capital, know as soon as you can when it is looking pear chaped and get out.   On that note you need also to watch volume (liquidity)  when you need togo you need to be able to get out without moving the stock down too much.   

And another great rule is, *never ever try to catch a falling knife*, if it is going down* be out *and stand aside till it has bottomed, consolidated and for good reason is on the way back up again.   I find I am often too pre-occupied with better stocks by then than to be watching anymore.

However none of this is perfect and I have more bad trades than good but usually my good trades make up for the bad. 

I find myself trading less as time goes by but the trades now are much more focused and of course longer term.   You go nuts watching the screen every minute of the day unless you set up as a bit of a team.   Have often thought of employing a young person who can use a computer well and can follow instructions well, knows nothing about shares but follows your criteria to the letter.   Of course computers can do that too.


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## ThingyMajiggy

I wonder how many of the real successful traders, like hardcore big time traders, those that have made millions or high hundreds of thousands use "indicators". Most of these traders from what I have seen are scalpers(order flow)/traders, other than that its the likes of Buffet type investors, not to say there aren't other traders using other timeframes that are successful, just from my own experience, the most successful traders that I have seen have been these types of traders. All the indicators, MACD, RSI and all that rubbish all seems to be used by the 90% so its obviously something else at work that gives that success? 

How much does actual trading method/indicators used make a difference? 

Plus the fact of emulating too, beginners tend to emulate traders that show the most success, even though sometimes this does not work, its hard to know what to  strive for and stick at because no matter what you do there are the contradicting beliefs of other traders thinking you're mad. So you try to find a method that "suits yourself, your personality". Right. How does one achieve this? Start trading a method that "feels" ok(whatever that means), might go OK for a while then have a few losing trades, confidence starts lacking, "is this a bad method?" "is it just me?" "am I not suited to this timeframe/style of trading?" and "where do I go from here?".

This is some of the hardest stuff for newcomers to get on top of. It certainly is for me anyway. Sometimes I think maybe stuff it, just get a plain chart, price and volume and just stare at the damn thing for 10000 hours?


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## johnnyg

Sam, I don't know if you own Adaptive Analysis by Radge or not, but if you do, read the first pages. Might help answer your question.


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## bunyip

Client said:


> Alcoa Inc (AA), one of the Dow Jones listed stocks, fell below the weekly trendline to the MA (34). This fall was started by a bearish engulfing pattern about 2 months ago. Now the price is in corrective movement with low trading volume. If the long red bar occurs next week, a continuation bearish pattern will be formed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On the daily chart this correction seems to have a form of an ascending triangle. According to various technical analysis theories Triangle is a continuation pattern and after (if) the price breaches the lower ascending line, the downside movement will continue. Take to attention that the price often breaks the top resistance level of a triangle and quickly retraces back.
> The gap and the middle of the previous long red candle serve as additional resistance levels.




An ascending triangle is a trend continuation pattern _*when found in an uptrend. *_It's far less reliable as a continuation pattern when found in a downtrend, as in the example you've given.

A descending triangle is a trend continuation pattern *when found in a downtrend. *It's far less reliable as a continuation pattern when found in an uptrend.

A symmetrical triangle is a trend continuation pattern when found in both uptrends and downtrends.

Click on the charts to enlarge them.


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## Client

You are partly right, bunyip. Ascending triangle works better in an uptrend. But nevertheless, even in a downtrend it is mostly a continuation pattern, just weaker. At least we can't take it as a reversal signal. In this case confirmation of the further fall happens after the breach of the lower line of the triangle. I don't insist the trend will continue though. Only market is always right.


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## bunyip

Client said:


> You are partly right, bunyip. Ascending triangle works better in an uptrend. But nevertheless, even in a downtrend it is mostly a continuation pattern, just weaker. At least we can't take it as a reversal signal. In this case confirmation of the further fall happens after the breach of the lower line of the triangle. I don't insist the trend will continue though. Only market is always right.




I don't dispute your point that ascending triangles are still continuation patterns in downtrends, but in my view they're barely worth trading in that situation due to their limited success rate and limited profitability.

I first learnt about triangles from the book, 'Curtis Arnold's PPS Trading System'. 

Arnold's research found that...
* Ascending triangles had the highest number of winning trades (46%) and the most profit potential when found in uptrends.
* They're much less common than symmetrical triangles.
* The post triangle thrust was weaker in ascending triangles than in symmetrical triangles.
* Ascending triangles are profitable in uptrends, but less so than symmetrical triangles.

This suggests that while ascending triangles are viable trade setups in uptrends, they're barely worth trading in downtrends due to their limited reliability and profit potential. 
I trade them only during uptrends. I ignore them during downtrends.

Likewise, descending triangles don't interest me in uptrends but I'll trade them during downtrends.


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## Trembling Hand

bunyip said:


> Arnold's research found that...




And there lies all that is wrong with TA. People pull out patterns that some dude named 50 years ago and thinks just because they have a name they also have an edge. The reality couldn't be further from the truth. Then there is the problem of application. To be successful you have to not only pick direction but also what you are trying to achieve. Does that pattern provide a high probability 2 R win or a lower win rate but 6 R target. 

Few spruikers bother with anything past canned TA let alone well document research on what they are trying to achieve.


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> And there lies all that is wrong with TA. People pull out patterns that some dude named 50 years ago and thinks just because they have a name they also have an edge.




How is that any different to you finding patterns and eventually sharing them with other traders, you use them/think they are edges at the moment, so why wouldn't they be to the other traders, its no different with the dude that found patterns 50 years ago? If the patterns are still there, doesn't that just prove that it indeed is an edge?


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## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How is that any different to you finding patterns and eventually sharing them with other traders, you use them/think they are edges at the moment, so why wouldn't they be to the other traders, its no different with the dude that found patterns 50 years ago? If the patterns are still there, doesn't that just prove that it indeed is an edge?




Are you serious?

So a couple of bars make a little coily pattern that has a name. Thats an edge that you know how to profit from and what to expect as far as probability of win rate and average R:R of that win rate in your market, in your time frame given current market volatility or lack there of?


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Are you serious?
> 
> So a couple of bars make a little coily pattern that has a name. Thats an edge that you know how to profit from and what to expect as far as probability of win rate and average R:R of that win rate in your market, in your time frame given current market volatility or lack there of?




So you knew when you were learning how to trade, wondering what the fark to do, that the patterns you trade now had X chance of being a winner, the average R:R in the time frame and current market volatility? If someone did testing on it these bars coiling up with a name, then there might well be an edge there, who knows, dunno if anyone has tested it. I wasn't talking about that particular "pattern". How does one know if such a pattern has a X chance of being a winner, or the average R:R expected from such a pattern? Not like you can search through entire history and say yep just find all the ascending triangles for me and tell me how good the pattern is, then click OK. 

So I assume to find out how good these patterns are, you need to trial them on sim, am I getting hotter? So the best thing to do is trial through each stupid pattern, engulfing, triangles, channels, whatever other **** one can think of, to see if its a pattern worthwhile or if its just "canned TA" and you're wasting your time. It'd take the precious 10000 hours just to do that, which at 2 hours a day for 40 weeks a year is about 25 years.


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## Trembling Hand

Will get back to you. I'm a bit busy trying to execute *my *patterns to the market *when *I believe the possibilities are in my favour based on past experience/testing.

(Actually thats the answer. If you don't know how to do the above you're not a traders  A hole)


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## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Will get back to you. I'm a bit busy trying to execute *my *patterns to the market *when *I believe the possibilities are in my favour based on past experience/testing.
> 
> (Actually thats the answer. If you don't know how to do the above you're not a traders  A hole)




LOL Classic TH answer. Fair enough then. 

Well done on getting stuck into trading when you were 13, racking up those 10000 hours, obviously pays off :

Trade well


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## bunyip

Trembling Hand said:


> And there lies all that is wrong with TA. People pull out patterns that some dude named 50 years ago and thinks just because they have a name they also have an edge. The reality couldn't be further from the truth. Then there is the problem of application. To be successful you have to not only pick direction but also what you are trying to achieve. Does that pattern provide a high probability 2 R win or a lower win rate but 6 R target.
> 
> Few spruikers bother with anything past canned TA let alone well document research on what they are trying to achieve.




I'm not interested in who named the patterns or when, or whether or not they have a name. I've been long enough in the game to know which patterns are profitable for me. 
If they're profitable I'll trade them. I'll leave them alone if they're not.


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## mazzatelli

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I wonder how many of the real successful traders, like hardcore big time traders, those that have made millions or high hundreds of thousands use "indicators".




Not in a conventional sense - i.e. applying it directly to a stock
E.g.Some form custom indexes/baskets they believe "lead" the index. Take the moving average of both and when they cross = trading signal


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## Trembling Hand

bunyip said:


> I'm not interested in who named the patterns or when, or whether or not they have a name. I've been long enough in the game to know which patterns are profitable for me.
> If they're profitable I'll trade them. I'll leave them alone if they're not.




Yes mate thats my point. It not the canned pattern that matters is knowing what and when how long to use it.


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## bunyip

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes mate thats my point. It not the canned pattern that matters is knowing what and when how long to use it.




Which is no different to any other setup or strategy or pattern, canned or otherwise....knowing the time and situation to use them is what counts.
That's why I put in that post earlier about triangles - they're only profitable trade setups if you know which ones to use in which situations. 

There's nothing wrong with newcomers reading of chart patters in a book or on the net - irrespective of who named them or when - then trading them and getting personal experience of which ones work, the best ways to use them and when to leave them alone.


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## Client

This time we should pay attention to Cherokee Inc (CHKE). On the weekly chart a double bottom pattern was formed together with several bullish candlestick patterns: 3 Inside Up, Hammer and Tweezer Bottom (not marked on the weekly chart below).




The daily chart shows us the previous 5-wave impulse wave that ended in December 2009. Now the price is in corrective movement and most probably will reach the resistance level at $19.5. We should also take to attention the length of the previous rally in February that started from about $15.8 and reached $18.4. This gives us approximate target of the next upward movement - $19.6.


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## Trembling Hand

Client said:


> This time we should pay attention to Cherokee Inc (CHKE).
> 
> Now the price is in corrective movement and most probably will reach the resistance level at $19.5. We should also take to attention the length of the previous rally in February that started from about $15.8 and reached $18.4. This gives us approximate target of the next upward movement - $19.6.




Client I note on your website that you have said "It's Time To Trade Cherokee ". BUT all you have is a hopeful target. Where is the stop, where will you be proven wrong, how are you going to manage this?

Why do you pimp a trade without any regard for proper trading practise?

Are you taking this trade?


----------



## pixel

bunyip said:


> ...
> For me, trend hitch-hiking has been the simplest and most profitable of the many different strategies I've tried.




Thanks for putting it so succinctly, Bunyip.
I like the term "trend hitch-hiking". Didn't know it was called that, but that's in essence what I've been doing for years. And the better I've learned to refine my method of detecting a new trend, the better the result has become.
The rest is discipline and capital management.


----------



## Client

Trembling Hand said:


> Client I note on your website that you have said "It's Time To Trade Cherokee ". BUT all you have is a hopeful target. Where is the stop, where will you be proven wrong, how are you going to manage this?
> Why do you pimp a trade without any regard for proper trading practise?
> Are you taking this trade?



I never say about exact entry points or where you should buy, sell or stay out of the market because each trader has his own trading system, appropriate risk level and time frame to trade. I just try to predict price movement and give some arguments why it will probably move this way and not another. But I don't write about how someone should trade. Stop losses and entry points are your own decision and maybe this time this is not the best stock to trade. And the title... well I guess it was really bad one.


----------



## Client

The price of Impax Laboratories Inc (IPXL) increased by more than 3 times from April 2009 to March 2010 that you can see on the chart below.
Now IPXL hit the trendline and formed a Hanging Man pattern. These circumstances give us signals that this is a possible reversal point. Most probably, the price will retrace to the support level at $15. 






Weekly chart of IPXL​
The daily chart below reveals a Bearish Engulfing pattern near the trendline and one of the possible wave counts which admits that the major third wave is finished now and we should wait for a correction to the support line mentioned before.





Daily chart of IPXL​*
Arguments for downside movement:*
-    the price reached the upper trendline;
-    Hanging Man on the weekly chart;
-    Bearish Engulfing on the daily chart;
-    the end of the third major wave according to one of the possible wave counts.

*Arguments for upside movement:*
-    the price is above MA (34);
-    bulls were strong during the previous 2 weeks and now continuation of the rally is possible after passing beyond the resistance level.


----------



## Client

The weekly chart of St. Joe Co (JOE) shows us the upside price movement, presumably, in the form of a complex correction W-X-Y according to the Elliott Wave Principle. The W-part is presented by a Zigzag pattern which is followed by the symmetrical triangle (X-part) and now we can expect that JOE will reach new highs after breaking the upper line of the triangle (Y-part).




On the daily chart below you can see the most probable scenario for the next few weeks. The price couldn’t pass over the lower trendline of the triangle and now is going higher. 



*
Arguments for upside movement:*

    * the end of the Triangle pattern on the weekly chart which is usually followed by a rapid breakthrough;
    * the price couldn’t pass over the support level on the daily chart;
    * Symmetrical Triangle is known as a continuation pattern.

*
Arguments for downside movement:*

    * the price is below MA (34);
    * Triangles often serve as a last part of a complex correction.


----------



## Client

Once again the price of DTS Inc (DTSI) tested the resistance level at $35.86 shown on the weekly chart below. The last few rising bars were supported by low trading volumes pointing to a possible reversion.





_Weekly chart_​
2 bearish candlestick patterns were formed on the daily chart near the top, such as High Wave and Last Engulfing Top. Another reversal signal is the number of rising bars 9according to the Candlestick theory. There were no significant correction for a few weeks that means that the trend becomes exhausted (overbought).
It is not clear if the new downtrend starts now but a rollback to $32.5 is very possible.
Another support level to consider is the middle of the previous long bullish bar - $34.2.





_Daily chart_​
*Arguments for downside movement:*

    * the price reached an important resistance level;
    * 2 bearish candlestick patterns at the top;
    * 10 rising bars on the daily chart without any significant correction which means that the trend becomes exhausted (overbought);
    * very quick upside movement during last month.


*Arguments for upside movement:*

    * the price is above MA (34);
    * third testing of the resistance level may cause breakthrough;
    * previous upward movement demonstrated the power of the bulls which may be not over yet.


----------



## tech/a

This is all very nice but.
You may as well flip a coin as there is just a 2 way analysis analysis on each chart.
There isnt an arguement for Nothing happening I note.

No suggestions on how to best position a trade---yeh its up to the trader I know but Any stock at resistance or support/or pattern or even oscillator over bought over sold can be given this rudimentary 2 sided analysis.

Just seems pointless.


----------



## BBand

Yep - been there , done that, spent a lot of TA hours monitoring watch lists waiting for trades to set up

Now in my retirement years, my time is more precious

I have now gone full circle and back using only a few indicators for trading - and my results are as good as, if not better than when I was using PA etc

I now allocate a max of half an hour each week day to trading

I can use my indicator(s) to scan a universe of stocks for potential trades for the next day (trade the dailies), in a couple of minutes
There are no if, but, maybe's in my trading now - the signal is either there or its not

Like everything else in life, not every signal is borne equal, its our job as traders to pick out the A+ trades - with practice its not that hard.
AND no matter which style of trading you use, one's about as good as the other when it comes to accuracy!!

Indicators - late signals (not always, sometimes even earlier), - oh dear - its a bar late!, big deal

I have never had the inclination to day trade - I definately could not handle it, sitting waiting for a trade to set up - that takes a special type of person, and I don't think indicators will work too well there anyway

When learning to trade, have an open mind, what's the bees knees for someone may not work for you - but try them all, you never know

Peter


----------



## Client

tech/a said:


> This is all very nice but.
> You may as well flip a coin as there is just a 2 way analysis analysis on each chart.
> There isnt an arguement for Nothing happening I note.
> 
> No suggestions on how to best position a trade---yeh its up to the trader I know but Any stock at resistance or support/or pattern or even oscillator over bought over sold can be given this rudimentary 2 sided analysis.






> AND no matter which style of trading you use, one's about as good as the other when it comes to accuracy!!




You are both right. Well, mostly right. Actually, I was going to write an article about all these trading features and strategies as a whole. But 24 hours a day is not enough for me...


----------



## tech/a

> But 24 hours a day is not enough for me...




I have a smile at this.

If trading was that simple and that profitable and that easy for people to master and technical analysis *WAS/IS* the key to compounding profits and no worry leverage then 24 hrs would be ample,we'd all be spending 6 hrs a day making squillions.

Ever noticed how those who appear to be making squillions have associated businesses in the background.

Mind you there is more to be made selling "The dream" than living the dream.
Simply good business.


----------



## Client

The downward correction of Pfizer Inc (PFE) stopped at the Moving Avarage (34) and developed a bullish Morning Star pattern. Now we can expect the price to move up to the level of approximately $19.5-$20.




One of the most important bullish signals here is a breakthrough of the downward trendline on the daily chart. At the same time there is a 3 Inside Up candlestick pattern which increases the possibility of a bullish scenario. The first target is a $18.7 point. Another one is $20 point which was shown before on the weekly chart.




*Arguments for upside movement:*

* bullish morning star on the weekly chart;
* the price went above MA (34) on the weekly chart;
* bullish englulfing and 3 inside up on the daily chart;
* the price broke the downward trendline on the daily chart.


*Arguments for downside movement:*

* the price is still below MA (34) on the daily chart;
* the level at $17.70 (the middle of the long red bearish candle) is a significant resistance level which can stop upside movement.


----------



## Client

This day we should pay attention to Microsoft, one of the most well-known tickers listed in Dow Jones index. The last 6 weeks the stock was in the upside movement and almost reached the previous top at $31.





_Weekly chart of MSFT_​
Sellers didn't allow the price to go higher than the middle of the long bearish candle. A Shooting Star pattern with a long upper shadow appeared though hasn't been confirmed yet.



_Daily chart of MSFT​_
The price couldn't break the resistance level at $30 that you can see on the daily chart above. Along with that 2 bearish candlestick patterns were formed: Shooting Star and Engulfing. Additionally, there is a possible zigzag pattern which represents the whole upside movement. It is marked by A-B-C and may be over at the moment. From now we can expect at least a correction down to the level of $29 but the major downward trend should also be considered. 
Despite the fact that the price is above MA (34) and upward trend is currently developing, there are many bearish signals that tell us about a reversal.

*Arguments for downside movement:*

    * shooting star on the weekly chart;
    * the price couldn’t go higher than the middle of the long bearish candle on the weekly chart;
    * shooting star and bearish engulfing on the daily chart;
    * the price couldn’t break the resistance on the daily chart;
    * possible A-B-C correction is over on the daily chart.


*Arguments for upside movement:*

    * the price is above MA (34);
    * upward trend is developing;
    * shooting star is not confirmed yet on the weekly chart.


----------



## tech/a

CRAY Analysis direction --Long---Correct
EXPE Analysis direction--- Long---Flat
AA  Analysis direction ---Long---Flat
CHKE Analysis direction--- Long---Flat.
IXPL---cant find
JOE Analysis direction---long---Correct
DSTI Analysis direction---Short---flat

What use is this?


----------



## Client

tech/a said:


> CRAY Analysis direction --Long---Correct
> EXPE Analysis direction--- Long---Flat
> AA  Analysis direction ---Long---Flat
> CHKE Analysis direction--- Long---Flat.
> IXPL---cant find
> JOE Analysis direction---long---Correct
> DSTI Analysis direction---Short---flat
> 
> What use is this?



lol. I see some sort of disbelieve in your eyes  Of all those tickers you listed only IPXL failed. All others are correct. Your meaning of flat is very specific. Or do you expect the changes like 200%?...


----------



## Client

Edison International (EIX) is traded above the Moving Avarage (34) and about a mont ago we had a 3 Inside Up pattern on the weekly chart. The bar with the open price = the closing price strengthens the model.
Beside that EIX couldn't break the support level.




On the daily chart below you can see that the upward trend is supported by the lows at $32, $32.50 and $33.50. The last bullish models are Hammer and Morning Star. See the forecast below.




*Arguments for upside movement:*

    * The price is above MA (34);
    * 3 Inside Up pattern on the weekly chart;
    * Morning Star and Hammer patterns on the daily chart;
    * The price couldn’t break support level on both weekly and daily charts.


*Arguments for upside movement:*

    * the price could hardly reach new high after the 3 Inside Up pattern on the weekly chart;
    * resistance at approximately $34.50 can stop the rally.


----------



## Client

Massey Energy Co (MEE) is coming to its highest point. This scenario is supported by some reasonable arguments. See the charts below.





_Weekly chart of MEE_​
A significant resistance level was reached not so long ago. Beside that, on the second weekly chart below one of the possible wave counts is presented. 





_Weekly chart of MEE_​
According to it, the third major wave can be split into 5 smaller waves. This whole movement seems to come to its end and now we can expect the development of the fourth corrective wave. 
As you may know, a correction that comes after the end of 5-wave movement usually reaches the beginning of the previous smaller 4th corrective wave. Apart from that, it usually breaks the ascending trendline shown on the forecast above.





_Daily chart of MEE_​
The even smaller level of the recent rally suggests other 5-wave. This is the structure of the fifth wave of the major third wave. I hope you are not confused yet... The upside movement is developing within the channel which is usually broken rapidly after reversal starts. 
Another tip is the type of the last part of this rally (approximately from $48.55 to $54.69). It is called Rising Wedge and is a reversal pattern. It shows that bulls are losing their strength.


----------



## tech/a

Client.

*FLAT*---Neither failed nor validated

There is a point where analysis should be seen as validated or not,where the original reason for taking the trade is still true.
Some of these flat trades are at that point where the analysis is dubious.

I don't know about you or others but *I like to see my analysis validated strongly and early.* Unless its a systems trade and then you follow the system regardless of outcome---you have a systems test blueprint to go by.

While in the cases below 1 may have been stopped out your open profit would be pretty poor relative to risk.
You have 2 trades "at the time" trading well and 6 which have capital tied up doing very little.

I haven't been back to see if the original analysis is still valid but would suggest that at best it hasn't failed but hasn't been proven correct either.

A no mans land of tied up capital with an "Opportunity cost".

Having said that you have a longer term outlook so will re visit in a month or so.


----------



## brty

Tech/a,



> I like to see my analysis validated strongly and early




Agree 100%. 

When I buy, I buy because analysis said 'going up', not 'going sideways and maybe up later'. When things go sideways it means my analysis is incorrect, therefore no further reason to be in the trade. 
Of course some latitude must be given, but not a lot.

My research shows that going sideways, means market undecided and odds revert to 50/50 (or even less, depending on time going sideways) of a favourable outcome. In other words the longer sideways, the worse the likely outcome.

brty


----------



## Client

tech/a, brty,
You both have very righteous thoughts but the problem is to predict that "strong and early" movements. Especially talking about long term movements. If any of you teaches me the way I can tell where the price is going to be tomorrow exactly or even a month later, I will very appreciate that! And it would be nice if you gave a couple of examples like I do in this thread...


----------



## tech/a

Client said:


> tech/a, brty,
> You both have very righteous thoughts but the problem is to predict that "strong and early" movements. Especially talking about long term movements. If any of you teaches me the way I can tell where the price is going to be tomorrow exactly or even a month later, I will very appreciate that! And it would be nice if you gave a couple of examples like I do in this thread...




I dont know that our comments are righteous.
Your not the only one who is grounded in Tech analysis and have opinions.
I agree you cannot predict any price movement but we can *anticipate*.
The analysis you use is what I would call conventional.
It also uses some lagging indicators and some dynamic (Elliot) which isnt definative and requires confirmation of further price action.

I'm happy to place a couple of trades here but my aim in THIS market is not to set myself for large chunks but rather 2-10R on very short term trades.
This market right now doesnt lend it self to longer term in my view. I have losses and wins---net Profit is the aim--works for me.

Client I dont have any problem with your analysis but you dont show how you would trade them.
Sure direction options but how you actually extract a $$ is not discussed.
IE
What you do when your right and what you do when your wrong.

But maybe I need to pay for that part of your "training"?


----------



## brty

Client,



> but the problem is to predict that "strong and early" movements




I buy 'good support' that has been approached in the correct manner. What I buy generally either goes straight up or sideways. Sometimes it goes sideways for a few days then up. If it goes sideways for too long, then I'm out. I thought I already explained this.

The way Tech and I trade is probably almost opposite each other, but with common themes. It may sound confusing to you. The common themes involve a plan, trade management and a knowledge of exactly what to do no matter what the stock does.

Lots of lovely lines and different colours, indicators and averages have very little to do with trading.



> Especially talking about long term movements. If any of you teaches me the way I can tell where the price is going to be tomorrow




Here is confusion. If you are interested in 'long term' then tomorrow does not matter. If you are interested in 'tomorrow' then long term does not matter.
Why use dailies if you are trading weeklies??

No-one can tell where the price will be tomorrow, just anticipate due to research that tells of a likely outcome and positioning for that outcome, plus an uncle point or a plan.

brty


----------



## tech/a

> The way Tech and I trade is probably almost opposite each other,




Maybe not so opposite.


----------



## Client

tech/a said:


> I'm happy to place a couple of trades here but my aim in THIS market is not to set myself for large chunks but rather 2-10R on very short term trades.
> This market right now doesnt lend it self to longer term in my view. I have losses and wins---net Profit is the aim--works for me.



So you're a scalper and don't trade long deals right now. Am I correct?


> Client I dont have any problem with your analysis but you dont show how you would trade them.
> Sure direction options but how you actually extract a $$ is not discussed.
> IE
> What you do when your right and what you do when your wrong.



But you didn't tell me your method as well. Mine is very simple but I doubt something will change if I reveal it because, as I said before, every trader has his own prefered methods. 
I think you're expecting a detailed how-to guide from A to Z when a person doesn't need to think anything but just to follow my direct advices when to buy and when to sell, thus making millions. Right?



> But maybe I need to pay for that part of your "training"?



That would be nice  I need some money right now...



> I buy 'good support' that has been approached in the correct manner. What I buy generally either goes straight up or sideways. Sometimes it goes sideways for a few days then up. If it goes sideways for too long, then I'm out. I thought I already explained this.
> No-one can tell where the price will be tomorrow, just anticipate due to research that tells of a likely outcome and positioning for that outcome, plus an uncle point or a plan.



So you use a certain type of technical analysis. I do the same by drawing those "good support" levels with "lovely colourful lines". What's so bad in that? And I use time factor too. When a price doesn't go where I want it to go, I quit a trade...


----------



## brty

Client,



> I do the same by drawing those "good support" levels with "lovely colourful lines". What's so bad in that?




Please do not confuse the lines you have drawn with what I call 'good support'.

You have 'support' all over the place, there is not consistency in approach. Sometimes your support lines are sloping, sometimes recent bottoms, sometimes horizontal lines, sometimes from old tops. I would refer to this type of support a scattergun approach, nothing to do with finding the type of support that tends to work better than other types.

You also missed.... 


> that has been approached in the correct manner




...which is just as important as the support itself, not shown by any colourful lines on the graphs. 

Client....


> When a price doesn't go where I want it to go, I quit a trade




... yet you have not indicated such on any of the sideways trades.

brty


----------



## Trembling Hand

Client said:


> When a price doesn't go where I want it to go, I quit a trade...




I haven't seen anything in your posts about taking a trade and how you would manage them.


----------



## LKR

brty said:


> Client,
> 
> Please do not confuse the lines you have drawn with what I call 'good support'.




Its a very interesting behaviour, watching people give importance to a support line that they have drawn. The market gives significance, not your ruler. Dont think of support as a horozontial line think of it as an area where demand over comes supply, that is where the market is truely supported. 

To anticiapte that area is where volume price and time become important, because it will reveal strength or weakness. Then once you identifiy strength or weakness you may position in anticipation, and your probability of success starts to improve. Personally i love the R:R that support frameworks give. As long as you can identify and anticipate corretly, otherwise your porbability of success suffers greatly.


----------



## Client

> Please do not confuse the lines you have drawn with what I call 'good support'.
> 
> You have 'support' all over the place, there is not consistency in approach. Sometimes your support lines are sloping, sometimes recent bottoms, sometimes horizontal lines, sometimes from old tops. I would refer to this type of support a scattergun approach, nothing to do with finding the type of support that tends to work better than other types.



That is because the market is not consistent and it can not conform to your "good support" levels. This is all comparetive. Sometimes some levels work, sometimes they don't, sometimes price turns back without reaching any support or resistance. All those lines I draw are _possible_ supports and resistances which you just have to take to attention. I never say they will work with 100% guarantee. And if someone say you that, he is a scammer.



> ... yet you have not indicated such on any of the sideways trades.
> I haven't seen anything in your posts about taking a trade and how you would manage them.



As I said before, I try to give you some forecasts about price movement based on technical analysis methods. So, it is just an advice, a direction pointer. When, where and how to enter and quit a trade is not a subject of this thread. At least for now...


----------



## brty

Client,



> That is because the market is not consistent and it can not conform to your "good support" levels.






Ahhhhh!!!! I conform to what the market does, it is never the other way around!! 

You portray yourself as some type of professional, with a professional looking website, like some-one who knows what they are doing.

Yet....



> Sometimes some levels work, sometimes they don't, sometimes price turns back without reaching any support or resistance. All those lines I draw are possible supports and resistances which you just have to take to attention.




...clearly shows that you have no idea about what real trading with success consists of. Sometimes, does not cut it. Known percentage probabilities and placing bets accordingly is trading.

You do not offer "trading opportunities", you offer a 50/50 bet minus commission. Nothing better than any random selection of a stock.



> I try to give you some forecasts about price movement based on technical analysis methods. So, it is just an advice, a direction pointer.




Your own words from the same post dispute this.

brty


----------



## Client

> Known percentage probabilities and placing bets accordingly is trading.



Exactly. We are here to estimate _the probability_. But still it remains just a probability. And actually I try to show this probability and prove it by some methods. Just exactly like you do but maybe using another approach. 
Be my guest, post a decent example here of your way to trade.


----------



## Client

Fidelity National Financial (FNF) reached three support levels at once: MA (34), uptrend line and the previous top at $14.40. See the chart below.






_Daily chart of FNF_​
Beside that, as you may see, there is a reversal candlestick pattern - High Wave, the previous bar with long lower shadow. This means that sellers couldn't push the price lower, below the support levels mentioned before. After that we had a confirmation, a weak one though.
The forecast is presented on the chart above. Be aware that if the price breaks the level of $14.40 and goes lower the trendline, we should close long positions.

*Arguments for upside movement:*

    * the price is above MA (34);
    * the price couldn't break the upward trendline and break the support level of the previous top at $14.40;
    * recent downside movement has features of a correction that means that the rally will continue soon;

*Arguments for downside movement:*

    * confirmation (the last bar) of the High Wave pattern is rather weak, the price couldn't go higher than the middle of the long red bar;
    * 3 Inside Down pattern (not indicated on the chart) few days ago.


P.S. Hey, brty, what do you say about this support? Is it solid?


----------



## brty

> P.S. Hey, brty, what do you say about this support? Is it solid?




Not even close. This is another crap-shoot, not a high probability trade.

You use the 34 MA for all stocks, I find that each stock has its own rhythm/cycle.
Uptrend lines are broken all the time, I have never found consistency using them.
Volume??

What makes you think that old minor highs in an intermediate uptrend offer support??

brty


----------



## tech/a

Client said:


> So you're a scalper and don't trade long deals right now. Am I correct?




Days ---- very rarely weeks.
Can be out in hrs.




> But you didn't tell me your method as well. Mine is very simple but I doubt something will change if I reveal it because, as I said before, every trader has his own prefered methods.




After 8000+ posts my methods are shown all over the place,quite a bit is currentlt being discussed on the Volume thread.



> I think you're expecting a detailed how-to guide from A to Z when a person doesn't need to think anything but just to follow my direct advices when to buy and when to sell, thus making millions. Right?




No not at all I dont see anything other than analysis---and pretty rudimentary stuff at that.




> That would be nice  I need some money right now...




I have the feeling this effort is one of softsell.





LKR said:


> Its a very interesting behaviour, watching people give importance to a support line that they have drawn. The market gives significance, not your ruler. Dont think of support as a horozontial line think of it as an area where demand over comes supply, that is where the market is truely supported.




Now here is some smarts.My chart on ICN (In the volume thread) shows exactly this.
I see Zones rather than lines.
Have a look at the chart below than have a look at the latest chart from friday.ICN in the ASX



> To anticiapte that area is where volume price and time become important, because it will reveal strength or weakness. Then once you identifiy strength or weakness you may position in anticipation, and your probability of success starts to improve. Personally i love the R:R that support frameworks give.




Is that you Frank?



> As long as you can identify and *anticipate corretly*, otherwise your porbability of success suffers greatly.




Opps now you've lost me back to being correct!!


----------



## Client

brty said:


> You use the 34 MA for all stocks, I find that each stock has its own rhythm/cycle.



It's true. But I think this time 34 fits the best, like in many other cases.



> Volume??



And I noticed that volumes often give false signals...



> What makes you think that old minor highs in an intermediate uptrend offer support?? Uptrend lines are broken all the time, I have never found consistency using them.



I thought that was obvious. What makes you think that any other indicator or factor offers any support or signal? You speak in secrets...



> Now here is some smarts.My chart on ICN (In the volume thread) shows exactly this.
> I see Zones rather than lines.
> Have a look at the chart below than have a look at the latest chart from friday.ICN in the ASX



ok, let it be zones. So why do you think that those zones are much better then my lines or some other stuff? The price can break those zones and then unexpectedly turn back.. As well as in my cases. And?..


----------



## Client

There is a promising symmetrical triangle on the daily chart of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated (RBA). See for yourself.





_Daily chart of RBA_​
The price came close to MA (34) which gives us another bullish signal in this case. Also you should take into consideration the trading volumes which were very small during last several days. This is a common situation of this corrective pattern when the price becomes stable and then rapidly leaves the boundaries of the triangle. Most probably, RBA will perform an upside rally soon.


----------



## tech/a

No point in having 2 volume threads going so Ill answer this 



> ok, let it be zones. So why do you think that those zones are much better then my lines or some other stuff? The price can break those zones and then unexpectedly turn back.. As well as in my cases. And?..





Over here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19034&page=8


----------



## Client

The upside rally of Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) was stopped by a correction which turned out to be a Falling Wedge pattern. The downward movement has features of a temporary correction and after it is over there will be a great opportunity to buy a couple of stocks.





_Daily chart of LMT_​
Additional signal that bulls may take control is MA (34) which was not broken by the price. The long lower shadow on the last bar appeared. Besides that there is a 38,2% Fibonacci level that creates a support right now. 
However, the price is still within the Falling Wedge’s limiting lines. After it breaks the resistance, we should use the opportunity to buy it.


----------



## tech/a

Client

This is a nice Low risk setup based upon the Wedge pattern

Your other 2 confirming indicators I find interesting in your use.
The 34 day M/A you state provides support as does 38.2 fib.
Can you explain the technical reason/explanation that supports your argument that they "provide support". I suspect this is pure rhetoric rather than quantifiable evidence.

The long shadow however has some relevance.
Although a look at volume associated with the last 5 bars would be advantageous.


----------



## brty

Tech,

Clients chart was posted after the market had closed but misses last night. The price is already at $83.22 close with an intra day high of $83.57. A hindsight trading opportunity with the first day validating the "potential".

brty


----------



## Trembling Hand

brty said:


> Clients chart was posted after the market had closed but misses last night. The price is already at $83.22 close with an intra day high of $83.57. A hindsight trading opportunity with the first day validating the "potential".






Maybe Client could tell use how he would manage the trade from now. Hopefully he can use a chart thats not running 1 day behind. lol.:bonk:


----------



## tech/a

brty said:


> Tech,
> 
> Clients chart was posted after the market had closed but misses last night. The price is already at $83.22 close with an intra day high of $83.57. A hindsight trading opportunity with the first day validating the "potential".
> 
> brty




Well that can make you look like the best analyst in the world.
Where do I sign.


----------



## Client

tech/a said:


> Client
> 
> This is a nice Low risk setup based upon the Wedge pattern
> 
> Your other 2 confirming indicators I find interesting in your use.
> The 34 day M/A you state provides support as does 38.2 fib.
> Can you explain the technical reason/explanation that supports your argument that they "provide support".



This part is written in many technical analysis guides and theories. You can Google them.



> The long shadow however has some relevance.



I suspect this is pure rhetoric rather than quantifiable evidence.



> Maybe Client could tell use how he would manage the trade from now.



Nothing changes.



> Hopefully he can use a chart thats not running 1 day behind. lol.



I can't, unfortunately...



> Where do I sign.



hey, I thought you wanted to pay me before


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## brty

Client,

Originally quoted from Tech,


> Hopefully he can use a chart thats not running 1 day behind. lol.




Client reply.....


> I can't, unfortunately...




Perhaps you could use one of the many charts available on the internet to get something that's not behind. As someone who portrays themselves as 'professional', being one day behind with your charts is unforgivable in this day and age. It means your 'set-ups' are not only totally useless, but worse than totally useless.... 



> This part is written in many technical analysis guides and theories




Which usually mean diddly squat....



> I suspect this is pure rhetoric rather than quantifiable evidence




....Which is where this thread is at, lovely lines and technical analysis, but nothing quantifiable.  



brty


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## Client

brty said:


> Client,
> Perhaps you could use one of the many charts available on the internet to get something that's not behind.



I use specific software which takes data from Yahoo which is 1 day behind. Those charts are up to date only on weekends. Besides, as you may have noticed, the forecasts are given for a longer time period than just the next day.
But as soon as Tech/a pays me some money, as we agreed, I will order real time quotes from esignal. 



> As someone who portrays themselves as 'professional'



I don't remember saying that...



> It means your 'set-ups' are not only totally useless, but worse than totally useless....  ....Which is where this thread is at, lovely lines and technical analysis, but nothing quantifiable.... Which usually mean diddly squat....



Thanks for unbiased, fact-supported analytical review. You could easily work at rottentomatoes.com


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## brty

Client,



> Thanks for unbiased, fact-supported analytical review




You're welcome, and finally you have stated something accurately... :

OK, I should not be so condescending, I humbly apologize.

What I and others have been trying to communicate with you is that the charts you put up have nothing to do with trading opportunities. I could put up 30 charts of the DOW stocks with all sorts of technical reasons why they are a buy. Using the same charts, I could then give a whole lot of technical reasons why the same stocks are a sell, with different lines/parameters. It means nought.

Trading successfully is about a proven profitable plan, with actions to take depending on what the price does after you have entered the position. When entering a position you need a specific reason to do so, but this is only the beginning of a trade.

brty


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## Client

brty said:


> Client,
> 
> 
> 
> You're welcome, and finally you have stated something accurately... :
> 
> OK, I should not be so condescending, I humbly apologize.



Nevermind, this whole discussion only makes me chuckle. :



> What I and others have been trying to communicate with you is that the charts you put up have nothing to do with trading opportunities. I could put up 30 charts of the DOW stocks with all sorts of technical reasons why they are a buy. Using the same charts, I could then give a whole lot of technical reasons why the same stocks are a sell, with different lines/parameters.



That is why I often write reasons for both upside and downside movements (possibilities).



> Trading successfully is about a proven profitable plan, with actions to take depending on what the price does after you have entered the position. When entering a position you need a specific reason to do so, but this is only the beginning of a trade.
> 
> brty




Well, I do have my own plan after I have entered a trade. And this plan works with my charts and methods. I don't say it will fit all traders. At least it won't fit your seeing of the market, brty )) However, if used wisely, even these charts can be very valualble. This is just one of the possible ways to trade. If you don't like it, then don't use it but that doesn't mean that the method is bad itself.
And despite of what tech/a said previously, in _most_ cases I predict direction correctly. Besides, as you may know, profit can be gained even from the trading where less than a half of trades are predicted accurately. Of course, this is just the very beginning and you can lose money even if your analysis concerning direction is correct. But this means that you don't have a plan or your plan is bad but not the charts themselves.
At this moment I don't write about the whole cycle from the beginning of a deal to its end...


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## tech/a

Client said:


> Nevermind, this whole discussion only makes me chuckle. :




Cant understand why?




> That is why I often write reasons for both upside and downside movements (possibilities).




By doing this all you are doing is commentating on a chart.Your topic is potential trading opportunities----presented as you do its as helpful as *being given the next lotto numbers---here they are.*

They will either come from no's 1-20 or 21-45 or a combination of both.
This comes from rigorous analysis of every single lottery result in the history of the planet and I guarentee that you'll find a winner from this analysis.



> Well, I do have my own plan after I have entered a trade. And this plan works with my charts and methods. I don't say it will fit all traders. At least it won't fit your seeing of the market, brty ))




Would be great to see you run through a couple even if your trading doesnt "fit" any traders here---at least then we will have an insight into how you APPLY your analysis TO A TRADE.



> However, if used wisely, even these charts can be very valualble.




Define Wisely?



> This is just one of the possible ways to trade. If you don't like it, then don't use it but that doesn't mean that the method is bad itself.




We keep poining out "What way to trade????" You have presented a commentary nothing more ---no trading "Method".



> And despite of what tech/a said previously, in _most_ cases I predict direction correctly.




From what youve presented the ONLY time youd be wrong is when the stock niether rises OR falls.



> Besides, as you may know, profit can be gained even from the trading where less than a half of trades are predicted accurately. Of course, this is just the very beginning and you can lose money even if your analysis concerning direction is correct. But this means that you don't have a plan or your plan is bad but not the charts themselves.




And this sentance is exactly what the likes of myself and brty are on about.
You present one(Ambiguous analysis) and espose the other(A profitable trading plan).



> At this moment I don't write about the whole cycle from the beginning of a deal to its end...




To be continued.......................


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## professor_frink

tech/a said:


> Would be great to see you run through a couple even if your trading doesnt "fit" any traders here---at least then we will have an insight into how you APPLY your analysis TO A TRADE.




You think there's much chance of him posting actual trades when you and brty have been on the attack since the start of this thread?

If you and brty don't like what's being posted in this thread, an easy option is to simply not read it anymore


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## tech/a

professor_frink said:


> You think there's much chance of him posting actual trades when you and brty have been on the attack since the start of this thread?
> 
> If you and brty don't like what's being posted in this thread, an easy option is to simply not read it anymore




Why do you see the discussion as an attack.

I dont think anyone has a problem with the analysis.
Client is posting from a position of supplying the info which in his words could be benificial to others.

Our argument or mine at least is that in its form it is purely a commentary on some technical indicators on a group of charts I'm asking him to add to it (Trading application) so we can get some real discussion which is meaningful.

Analysis on its own needs to be supported with application.

This can of course be different from one person to another and one plan to another.
By seeing how Client applies his analysis to trading it should be helpful to see how the analysis is used all may learn something.

Currently I have 45 lotto numbers and no way of applying my knowledge of the numbers to turn a profit.

There is no indication of how it, the analysis is used and looking back on it doesnt  give any sort of edge---if that edge is in the application of the analysis then lets have a look at it for discussion---if its not then its a pointless thread.


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## professor_frink

tech/a said:


> Why do you see the discussion as an attack.




sorry I'll clarify, I said 'on the attack', meaning you guys have been highly critical of pretty well everything he's posted.

If there is no alternative analysis of the companies client is posting up charts of, why not leave the thread alone and see how it develops?

It would seem that if client wanted to post an actual trade then he would have done so by now


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## tech/a

Happy to leave the thread.


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## baby_swallow

IMO. anybody who wants to share his/her view on market should be treated fairly as long as they aren't trying to SELL you something. Every investor/trader has a different view on the market. The beauty of this forum is that we are here to share ideas. It's good to know what the "other guy" is thinking about the market.
Just my 2 cents. I didn't mean offend anyone. It's just my experience from a good trading forum in the US.


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## tech/a

baby_swallow said:


> IMO. anybody who wants to share his/her view on market should be treated fairly as long as *they aren't trying to SELL you something*. Every investor/trader has a different view on the market. The beauty of this forum is that we are here to share ideas. It's good to know what the "other guy" is thinking about the market.
> Just my 2 cents. I didn't mean offend anyone. It's just my experience from a good trading forum in the US.




If you think this guys motives are purely for the good of mankind and there are no hidden agenda's then you/r Nieve!


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## professor_frink

tech/a said:


> If you think this guys motives are purely for the good of mankind and there are no hidden agenda's then you/r Nieve!




Tech,

nowhere on Client's site that I've seen is there anything about him selling a subscription service, or anything like that. He's not the only member here that has a blog/website, nor is he the only member that originally showed up hoping to score a few extra hits to their website by participating in discussions here and having a link to their site in their signature. 

He's broken none of the rules of the site and has generally been polite when posting. What's the problem?


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## baby_swallow

tech/a said:


> If you think this guys motives are purely for the good of mankind and there are no hidden agenda's then you/r Nieve!




I was just passing by and saw only the last post. Don't know about this guy. Thanks anyway. Next time I would be very careful.


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## tech/a

professor_frink said:


> Tech,
> 
> nowhere on Client's site that I've seen is there anything about him selling a subscription service, or anything like that. He's not the only member here that has a blog/website, nor is he the only member that originally showed up hoping to score a few extra hits to their website by participating in discussions here and having a link to their site in their signature.
> 
> He's broken none of the rules of the site and has generally been polite when posting. What's the problem?




If ASF is happy with it then Fine.
We have all wasted enough cyber space on this.


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## Client

I wonder why all of you are so excited about the exact trading actions. Even if you had bought/sold the stock at the moment you read about it here, in a couple of days you would have been with profit in most cases described in this thread...



> Don't know about this guy. Thanks anyway. Next time I would be very careful.



Yeah, be very careful, otherwise my website can kidnap you and I can eat you alive


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## Wysiwyg

I think most of us have enough experience and software to churn out our own "potential trading opportunities" on the Oz market.


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## brty

professor_frink,



> nowhere on Client's site that I've seen is there anything about him selling a subscription service, or anything like that.




While there is no subscription service, there are adverts to other sites, called 







> Our Partners




If you go to one of the sites you find the following........



> Finexo also offers their affiliates a 2nd tier program for referring new affiliates. Each time you refer another affiliate to Finexo, you get paid a percentage of their commission. Right now, there is no better program for affiliates than this. Get paid for the life of your referral – and get paid a percentage of all affiliates you bring to Finexo.




Every post of client's is a subtle referral to his/her website, Tech picked it up in his first post in this thread...



> Great if it wasnt such blatent advertising.
> Suprised its lasted this long




I did not comment in this thread until I noticed mistakes in the 'classic' technical analysis.

Should the more experienced on this forum let such things go and not comment?? Should the lack of "Potential Trading Opportunities" in this thread be left alone without comment?? How do any of the charts presented add anything to the forum without analysis of the plan of action, of which there is none??

brty


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## Client

You did a great investigation, brty! Nothing can be concealed from you...


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## professor_frink

brty,

ads are a  big part of websites, you'll notice that most are covered in them these days. Referral $$ from click-throughs aren't exactly uncommon either, it happens here sometimes too.


Armed with your new knowledge, feel free to spend a bit of time clicking through the ads on this site so Joe can pay off the tab at his local





brty said:


> Should the more experienced on this forum let such things go and not comment?? Should the lack of "Potential Trading Opportunities" in this thread be left alone without comment?? How do any of the charts presented add anything to the forum without analysis of the plan of action, of which there is none??
> 
> brty





Feel free to comment brty but IMHO why don't you try and make it a little more constructive. Instead of just wading into a discussion and saying that something is _"a terrible example of "significant" support and resistance"_ and leaving it at that, you could take a leaf out of bunyip's book, who posted not long after your comment I've just highlighted and then proceeded to give examples of what context he thinks makes a pattern more valid, and included some charts to illustrate his point.

If you don't see any value to the forum in what's going on here, why not try and improve things by adding some of your own analysis?


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## Client

Another security to pay attention to - FEI Co (FEIC). 





_Daily chart of FEIC_​
Elliott Wave Principle was applied here...


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## Client

RealNetworks Inc (RNWK). The price reached 2 trendlines at once on the daily and weekly charts. You should watch this stock closely as reversal signals may appear the next trading session...





_Weekly chart of RNWK_





_Daily chart of RNWK_​


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## tech/a

Would you agree that the analysis of FEIC has failed?


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## Client

tech/a said:


> Would you agree that the analysis of FEIC has failed?




Sure I agree. Sorry for late response, I was in a vacation...


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## Client

It is time to pay some attention to Res-Care Inc (RSCR). Not so long ago it formed a double bottom pattern and fell down. Now we have 2 bullish patterns shown below against 2 bearish patterns Hanging Man and Evening Star (not labelled on the chart). However, the rising correction is not over yet, most probably the price will reach the level of 50% of the previous fall and the zone of the expanding triangle that occurred about 2 months ago. After that further fall may continue.






_Daily chart of RSCR_​


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## Kryzz

Client why are all your charts/analysis on U.S. stocks, considering this is an Australian Stock Forum, surely ASF members would benefit "more" if you posted stocks/analysis for ASX equities? Presuming majority of members wouldn't be trading U.S. equities


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## The Edge

Monday  31 May 2010

Of the many short-comings I have, one is not being v versatile with a computer, and an inability to figure out how to post charts.  In keeping with the theme of this thread, I referenced a 6 month daily XJO chart from NetQuote.  I do no know if it is current.  That last price appearing is 4458.

Putting the chart into a context, it looks like, [from my analytical perspective], that it may enter a trading range phase for some weeks/months to come.  XJO has made a lower swing low and a lower swing high since the April top.  The bias is to the downside, but the selling climax-type of bottom formed over a week ago suggests the trading range, as opposed to a continuation of the April sell-off.

The future has not yet happened, so no one knows with any certainty what will develop, but we can look for some areas to see HOW price responds in order to determine if there is a trade potential.  Two days after the spike low, there was a wide range retest bar that had no follow-through.  In fact, the last three day's rally has erased that negative effort.  This tells us that for now, buyers are stronger than sellers.

The 4400 area appears to be offering some support, judging from the high day preceding the spike low, and the highs of the two days following.  If there are any corrections that retest this area, and it is not absolute for price could reach a lower level and still be a legitimate retest, we want to see smaller range bars and decreasing volume that says selling pressure has diminished, and a rally farther in the the larger trading range is likely.

The 4480 - 4500 area is the first layer of resistance.  This comes from the February low and then the early May low, around 4420 area.  The closes are
all above the 4480 area from when the lows occurred.

Of greater interest is the failed mid-May rally at 4640-4650 area.  [My chart does not show closer price detail].  There is a wide range bar to the downside, four days before the spike low.  The significance of this day is the clear show of supply overwhelming demand, and on any future retest rally, this high, 4610 area, will be defended.  The defense of that area can also start ot the low of the wide range day, so do not look for an absolute price; just watch HOW price responds to any given area.

The point to this narrative is to look for an area for a potential trading opportunity.  The area of resistance starts just under 4500 and goes to the
4650 area, with the 4610 area important to watch.

At 4458, price has already ralllied above a 50% retracement of the mid-May high to low, so that is a relative show of strength in this current rally.  The half-way point of the April high-May low is around 4,595, and that is right in the vicinity of the first layer of resistance observed above.  Two separate forms of resistance that meld into the same area should be watched more closely,

All we are doing is making some factual observations and putting them into a context in order to arrive at what may offer some potential trading opportunities.  A few places to go short have been identifed.  If the rally into the first resistance area is weak, that is an opportunity, and we know exacly why.  There is no guesswork.

What would constitute a weak rally?  The rally bars get smaller in range, and the volume diminishes, demonstrating a lack of demand.  If the bar ranges are not small and volume does not diminish, then the 4480 - 4500 area may only be a temporary stop for price to go higher to the next resistance level.

It is impossible to be specific, for we have no idea how future developing market activity will unfold, but we know by observing HOW it unfolds at the identifed areas, it will provide important clues.

Now, XJO is an average.  Some may trade only individual stocks.  If we see that price weakens at an area of resistance, and a turning point develops, then look for the weakest performing stocks to sell, for if the market does decline, the weakest stocks will lose the most "value."

This is just one way to search for potential trading opportunites, and we get to utilize the best and most reliable source of price information, that generated by the market itself.

There are some fine points that help identify when a market is turning, and that would come from watching the lower time frame, intra day developing market activity to gain an edge in deciding when to pull the trigger.

Sounds like a plan, and one without any "technical gimmicks."


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## Client

Kryzz said:


> Client why are all your charts/analysis on U.S. stocks, considering this is an Australian Stock Forum, surely ASF members would benefit "more" if you posted stocks/analysis for ASX equities? Presuming majority of members wouldn't be trading U.S. equities



I scan all the stocks. But there are only a couple of them each time that I think are worth of attention. But most of the stocks come from the US, that is why most of the picks here are of the US origin...


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## brty

Res-Care Inc (RSCR) from what you have posted is in the middle of no-whereland as far as a trading opportunity is concerned. For trading you need some type of justifiable reason to buy or sell something that has a higher probability than a cr@p shoot.

From your posting this one is not near support, nor resistance, nor some type of breakout. It is in the middle of a pattern that could go either way from what I see.

How you can say, 



> I scan all the stocks. But there are only a couple of them each time that I think are worth of attention.






> But most of the stocks come from the US, that is why most of the picks here are of the US origin...




...is beyond me if this is the best you can come up with as an opportunity for trading 

The big picture on this stock is what you have missed and is the most relevant, it is in clear down trend on a weekly basis over the last 3 years, and recently hit its head on the downtrend line as shown below...

brty


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## Client

By the way, brty, if you find any good stock to look at, let us know here. It's better when 2 men are finding something interesting than 1...


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## Client

Don't miss to trade Hershey Co (HSY). The nearest solid resistance is $52. However, despite the price has broken the upper line, wait for additional confirmation (1 or 2 bars) as there are usually 5 waves in triangles patterns.





_Daily chart of HSY_​


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## Client

Bancorp Rhode Island Inc (BARI) performed a gap and is falling right now to the weekly trendline. See the daily chart below.





_Daily chart of BARI_​


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## tech/a

Client said:


> Don't miss to trade Hershey Co (HSY). The nearest solid resistance is $52. However, despite the price has broken the upper line, wait for additional confirmation (1 or 2 bars) as there are usually 5 waves in triangles patterns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _Daily chart of HSY_​




Nice ---played out well.


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## Client

tech/a said:


> Nice ---played out well.



Wow, I am surprised to hear that from you :


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## Client

Don't miss Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) today! The channel was broken and there are several other additional bullish signals. There is a possibility that the price will return to the upper channel line before further rally. See the chart below.





_Daily chart of BRO_​


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## skyQuake

Client said:


> Don't miss Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) today! The channel was broken and there are several other additional bullish signals. There is a possibility that the price will return to the upper channel line before further rally. See the chart below.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _Daily chart of BRO_​




Alternately, you can draw it to be rangebound, and hitting top of range, with target at gap fill on the downside.


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## tech/a

Client said:


> Wow, I am surprised to hear that from you :




Credit where its due.
Winnig trade or losing trade how its played by the trader will determine profitability (Expectancy)

If traded correctly you could have a less than 50% hit rate and still be profitable.

Over time you would be able to look at this thread and your selections and work out Expectancy IF

You had an exit and position sizing strategy.
Unfortunately you only present a small part of a trade.

If you care to expand this exercise may eventually have some meaning for all involved---even you.


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## InTheMoneyStocks

Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) has sold sharply after breaking a major support line on the daily chart. That break down line can be seen on the chart below.  As the selling continues, Research In Motion is moving into a major support line at $47.75. This can also be seen on the chart below. This level may may pose a great risk reward setup for a long swing trade bounce.

ugggh forgot i cant post charts yet lol sorry


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