# End of the China bull?



## Uncle Festivus

There appears to be emerging signs that China has not de-coupled from the rest of the worlds problems. Internal rampant inflation and pressure on food supplies from a cold snap may  temper the  rate of growth, with local implications/ramifications for Australia? 

Food commodities the next/current global bull market perhaps?



> Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, cooled in January as growth in shipments overseas slowed.
> The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53 from 55.3 in December, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics said today in an e-mailed statement. A CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets PMI index slipped to 53.2 from 53.3.
> Exports grew at the slowest pace since 2002 in the fourth quarter, indicating that recent yuan gains, the cooling global expansion and cuts to some export-tax incentives are biting.



A serious threat to Chinese food supplies with recent severe cold & snow storms.







> BEIJING (AP) -- A top agriculture official warned Thursday that snow battering central China has dealt an "extremely serious" blow to winter crops, raising the likelihood of future shortages driving already surging inflation.Regions hit by the worst winter storms in 50 years provide the bulk of China's winter fruit and vegetable production, Chen Xiwen, deputy director of the Communist Party's leading financial team, told reporters.
> The full magnitude of the losses was unclear and much depended on the weather, he said.
> "The impact of the snow disaster in southern China on winter crop production is extremely serious," Chen said. "The impact on fresh vegetables and on fruit in some places has been catastrophic."



China's products to be less competitive?



> Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The yuan rose to the highest since the end of a link to the dollar in 2005 on speculation the worst snowstorms in five decades will exacerbate inflation, paving the way for faster currency gains. Bonds advanced.
> The currency rose for a sixth day as the heaviest snowfall since 1954 destroyed 4.2 million hectares of farmland and strained supplies of food and coal. China is willing to use the yuan's exchange rate to help slow inflation, which is double the central bank's annual target.




And the share market fails the re-test?


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## tradingforwealth

I thought we are mainly affected by commodities and from China buying them from us, they got heaps of cash reserves and they haven't finished building their cities.

The chinese government didn't want BHP and RIO to merge as they could have more power.

Anyway, BHP has in most of their announcements that they expect this commodity boom to last for 10-20years more.


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## Uncle Festivus

The Chinese trifecta - 

1 - currency appreciating, 
2 - global demands slowing down, and 
3 - production costs increasing

and.....inflation.



> BEIJING, Feb 3, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- The purchase management index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry fell from 55.3 in December 2007 to 53 in January 2008, indicating China's economic movement will be slowed down in the next few months, said Lehman Brothers.
> 
> Meanwhile, China's new *export* *orders index dropped sharply* from 54.4 to 49, *a record low* over the past three years.
> 
> Lehman Brothers said the phenomenon represents that China's export growth will go at slower paces in the next two or three months, under the circumstance of currency appreciating, global demands slowing down, and production costs increasing.
> 
> It also predicted that the month-to-month trade growth in China's mainland will go down apparently in the first quarter, due to the snow disaster that interrupted communication, energy and food supply, and closed some factories. That may make the actual industrial production and export data lower than PMI.






> BEIJING, Feb 3, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- Heads of China's export-oriented manufacturing companies are feeling the pinch of the spreading US subprime crisis, the downward adjustments of export rebates, and the increasingly stronger Renminbi.
> 
> The January Procurement Manager Index (PMI) published on Feb. 2 by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) stands at 53.0 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than previous month. And among all sub-indices, the one for export orders for the first time over the past three years decreased.
> 
> Manufacturing PMI comprises a basket of sub-indices. It indicates an expansionary economy if the reading is above 50 percent, and a recession if below.
> 
> All the sub-indices except the one on inventory, which saw slightly rise in January, are all lower by varied degrees than the December 2007 ones, with the largest drops recorded in the indices on production, new orders and new export orders, whose decreases respectively reaching 3.4, 4.4 and 5.3 percentage points.
> 
> *Notice should be given to the fact that the index on new export orders fell below 50 percent for the first time since January 2005.*
> 
> Also according to CFLP, sectors as electronics, nonferrous refining, chemicals, fiber and plastics, textile and non-metallics, among the 20 sectors categorized under manufacturing industry, all registered PMIs lower than 50 percent.


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## Wysiwyg

tradingforwealth said:


> I thought we are mainly affected by commodities and from China buying them from us, they got heaps of cash reserves and they haven't finished building their cities.
> 
> The chinese government didn't want BHP and RIO to merge as they could have more power.
> 
> Anyway, BHP has in most of their announcements that they expect this commodity boom to last for 10-20years more.




Hi there, so where is the "heaps of cash" coming from and what do you think China will be exporting after the "expansion" has subdued?
Do you think one day we will hear from China ... sorry folks, we`re out of yen.


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## roland

It's been a while since I was in China - around 6 years or so. I have been there 4 times, each time a year or 2 apart. Each time the changes were dramatic - just amazing at how quickly a city of apartments can be erected, seemingly using nothing but bamboo scafolding and manpower.

The extreme poverty in many country areas in contrast with the extreme cash wealth of China is an obvious sign to me that China still has a long way to run.

They make just about everything in the world, and the world continually empowers their factories to continually pump out manufactured goods from other's natural resources.

Nothing is going to stop China, they are not even a small percentage ahead in thier growth expectations. If someone has something they can dig up and send to China to buy back at value added prices, then it is all smooth sailing for their growth. The US is dead - look out for the new China!


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## Wysiwyg

roland said:


> They make just about everything in the world, and the world continually empowers their factories to continually pump out manufactured goods from other's natural resources.
> 
> Nothing is going to stop China, they are not even a small percentage ahead in thier growth expectations. If someone has something they can dig up and send to China to buy back at value added prices, then it is all smooth sailing for their growth. The US is dead - look out for the new China!




You are assuming the rest of the world want to buy the stuff.I reckon quality will sell more than quantity.But i suppose the poorer in their country will soak up the surplus products.


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## roland

Wysiwyg said:


> You are assuming the rest of the world want to buy the stuff.I reckon quality will sell more than quantity.




Wysiwyg, I guess you are not in the frontline of the retail trade...? We continually try and promote "quality" products, but are continually frustrated with the majority of people buying on price.

....and, guess what, the higher cost "quality" products are generally also made in China


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## Wysiwyg

roland said:


> Wysiwyg, I guess you are not in the frontline of the retail trade...? We continually try and promote "quality" products, but are continually frustrated with the majority of people buying on price.
> 
> ....and, guess what, the higher cost "quality" products are generally also made in China




Yes roland, you are right, i don`t sell things.What products of quality do you mean please?


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## numbercruncher

roland said:


> The US is dead - look out for the new China!




Yes big call, Im always buying made in China sometimes by choice and sometimes because of no choice, price AND quality seal the deal.

US products are getting cheaper, I would and will never buy food from China but have absolutely no problem buying US food. My new Lawnmower is made in the US. If I could choose made in US over made in China for comparable prices I would choose US and im sure more than 50pc of Australians would agree. I also have no problem paying double for items that last twice as long regardless of point of manufactor.

China is going to come up against more competition. She needs to do work on Quality rather than quantity imho.

The US has alot of fight left in her, new direction will hopefully be found under new leadership.

Such comments about the US have me wondering if its nearly time to invest their, not quite im thinking, bit more to fall yet


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## Freeballinginawetsuit

Wysiwyg said:


> Yes roland, you are right, i don`t sell things.What products of quality do you mean please?




What rock do you live under? .

Plz name something that isnt, and just to be picky it cant have a component/textile/plastic yada yada in its manufacture..... chinese sourced.


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## Wysiwyg

Freeballinginawetsuit said:


> What rock do you live under? .
> 
> Plz name something that isnt, and just to be picky it cant have a component/textile/plastic yada yada in its manufacture..... chinese sourced.





I got a pair a strides made in China, but most of my electronic stuff and car is made in Australia, Japan, Korea.Bring on the Chinese car manufacturers say what.:



> Home >> Business
> UPDATED: 11:01, June 25, 2005
> *First made-in-China cars sent to Europe*
> 
> Japan's car-maker Honda Motor Co Friday started to ship its made-in-China cars to Europe with Germany as the first destination.
> This is the first time cars have been exported from China to Europe.
> Honda plans to export 10,000 units of the Jazz hatchback to Europe this year, it said.
> The 1.2- and 1.4-litre Jazz is being made at Honda's joint venture in Guangzhou with the Guangzhou Automobile Corp and Dongfeng Motor Corp



.


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## Wysiwyg

Plus it might be hard for China to lose that "low quality" tag...1997 ...



> *In 1800 China accounted for 33 percent of world manufacturing output*; by way of comparison, Europe as a whole was 28 percent, and the United States was 0.8 percent. *By 1900 China was down to 6.2 percent *(Europe was 62 percent, and the United States was 23.6 percent). *In* *1997 China accounted for 3.5 percent of world GNP *(in 1997 constant dollars, the United States was 25.6 percent). China ranked seventh in the world, ahead of Brazil and behind Italy. *Its per capita GDP ranking was 81st, just ahead of Georgia and behind Papua New Guinea*. Taking the most favorable of the now-dubious purchasing-power-parity calculations, in 1997 China accounted for 11.8 percent of world GNP, and its per capita ranking was 65th, ahead of Jamaica and behind Latvia. *Using the U.N. Human Development Index, China is 107th, bracketed by Albania and Namibia *-- not an impressive story.





2008 ....  



> China's economy has grown dramatically in the last decade: it is more than twice as large as it was ten years ago. This spectacular rise means that Beijing can influence the global economy today in ways that would have been unimaginable in the 1990s -- a development that has led to widespread concerns in the United States. Many officials in Washington and small U.S. manufacturing companies allege that Beijing has deliberately undervalued its currency and manipulated markets in order to promote the growth of its exports.


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## So_Cynical

numbercruncher said:


> Yes big call, Im always buying made in China sometimes by choice and sometimes because of no choice, price AND quality seal the deal.



Everything is made in china now...even good stuff, but mostly theres just no choice...LCD monitors is a good example..all made in China.



numbercruncher said:


> US products are getting cheaper, I would and will never buy food from China but have absolutely no problem buying US food.



What US food?..Woolworth's has been selling frozen Chinese veggies for a while now...home brand and others...carrots, broccoli etc etc, most people have no idea....they don't read the contents labels, even Nabisco, Ritz biscuits are made in China.


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## numbercruncher

So_Cynical said:


> Everything is made in china now...even good stuff, but mostly theres just no choice...LCD monitors is a good example..all made in China.




The car I drive isnt, the road I drive on isnt, the food on my table isnt, the fuel I use isnt, the plane I fly on isnt, the power I use isnt, the house I live in isnt etc etc, I know Chinese commerce is huge but it isnt about to take over the financial world.

I hope China continues to do well, she will be up against tough competition in the future im certain. A huge _aging_ population is just one thing, Internal price pressures another, India will provide big competition. Falling value of the USD is more competition.

Competition is great!

Finally, I love Chinese food, but ill never trust made in China food, I wish them good luck changing my and many others minds on that  Id pay 100pc more for Aussie made, Id grow my own if there was no alternative! Each to their own though


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## Lucky_Country

Just the start of the China bull.
Internal demad is the biggest growth story not exports.
Oh and dont forget India


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## So_Cynical

numbercruncher said:


> The car I drive isnt, the road I drive on isnt, the food on my table isnt, the fuel I use isnt, the plane I fly on isnt, the power I use isnt, the house I live in isnt etc etc, I know Chinese commerce is huge but it isnt about to take over the financial world.



All true and backs up my original comment...."everything is made in china" however its only economical to export almost everything here....wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese were able to export pre cast road sections one day. Honda makes cars there.



Lucky_Country said:


> Just the start of the China bull.Internal demad is the biggest growth story not exports.
> Oh and dont forget India




Everyone underestimates the domestic demand in china.


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## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> There appears to be emerging signs that China has not de-coupled from the rest of the worlds problems. Internal rampant inflation and pressure on food supplies from a cold snap may  temper the  rate of growth, with local implications/ramifications for Australia?
> 
> Food commodities the next/current global bull market perhaps?
> 
> A serious threat to Chinese food supplies with recent severe cold & snow storms.China's products to be less competitive?
> 
> 
> 
> And the share market fails the re-test?




I have been in China for he last four days, hell yeh it's freezing! but there is no problem getting food. the snap has seemed to have ended. I have had a couple wicked snow fights with the locals! came off second best to a couple kids!

as for the worry about there economy, inflation is a real problem now, prices have risen a lot since 2004 my first trip. as for there being cracks that could lead to disarster i doubt it, there are over 1 billion people in this country so the local market can take up a fair amount of the slack. but if all the orders did stop there would be quite a few out of work! but i don't think the place would just stop. Have they decoupled hell no they are more connected to the credit crunch then most think, but they have the cash reserves to see them though.

things are really amazing here, its all man power. all the highways froze up covered in ice so thousands of people all went out and shoveled the snow, the army was also working day and night to keepthe roads clear.


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## Uncle Festivus

....and more inflation.....

The Reserve Bank thought _it_ had a problem



> Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation accelerated to the quickest pace in more than 11 years after the worst snowstorms in half a century disrupted food supplies.
> Consumer prices rose 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today, after gaining 6.5 percent in December. That was more than the 7 percent median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
> Food prices soared 18 percent after blizzards paralyzed transport systems and destroyed crops. The government faces the challenge of curbing inflation without derailing the expansion of the world's fastest-growing major economy.
> ``Inflation is likely to have further legs to run even after the snowstorm effects subside because of *fast growth in money supply*,'' said Liang Hong, senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. February's rate ``might even get close to double-digit levels.''



*"fast growth in money supply" - *I thought that was a capitalist tradition, looks like the commo's have stolen that as well *

*


> Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank said it will increase innovation in monetary-policy tools after a report showed that inflation surged to an 11-year high.
> China's economy faces ``prominent'' problems such as imbalanced international payments and excess liquidity, the People's Bank of China said. The comments were in a five-year plan for the finance industry released today on the central bank's Web site.
> ``We will further improve monetary policy controls, continue to use quantitative measures, widen usage of price- related policy tools and increase innovation in monetary policy measures,'' the central bank said in the report, without elaborating.



The chart - support holding - for now?


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## dhukka

Uncle Festivus said:


> ....and more inflation.....
> 
> The Reserve Bank thought _it_ had a problem
> 
> *"fast growth in money supply" - *I thought that was a capitalist tradition, looks like the commo's have stolen that as well *
> 
> *
> The chart - support holding - for now?





Unc, check out this interview on Bloomberg yesterday with the CEO of Asianomics. Paints a very sobering picture.


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## Uncle Festivus

dhukka said:


> Unc, check out this interview on Bloomberg yesterday with the CEO of Asianomics. Paints a very sobering picture.



Interesting, thanks for that. It appears the Chinese authorities are even more behind the curve than I thought. I wonder how "innovative" they will be?


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## ithatheekret

There has to be a move brought about by the imbalance soon .

The capitalization is not really a revenue party , more an investment by-product .

Inflation , they're importing it daily , we're exporting it . There has to be a development somewhere due to this . 

What is a mystery is whether they have enough domestic consumer revenues to sustain growth levels , whilst someone ...... anyone tries to cool inflation .

China has been feeding a stagflated US economy since 1999 in real terms , the inflation monster has just about eaten one sector ( housing ) , just like fire , if it finds new fuel .........

The benefit I see in China is all the land , loads of it . But land needs time to be developed into something .

The decoupling theories , well , I'm more incline to think they can't escape damage , nobody can . The amount of damage in the short to medium term that can be sustained is probably what all the analysts are waiting to see , I don't think they're going to be down and out though , just a slower , but with a direction still . 

The markets , they look ripe for a clean up , new shop , must be time for their first fire sale .............


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## Uncle Festivus

Just as they had a cultural purge, I would envisage a financial purge to expunge all the dead wood ie bank non conformers etc before going on to be the sustainable force of the future. In fact, a global recession would help their internal economy as it would lower their costs. After the purge - now that would be a bull worth getting in on the ground floor.


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## Uncle Festivus

Inflation importing gathers pace....
*
CHINA'S Pearl River Delta - the southern coastal area that in the past two decades has become the world's factory floor for low-end goods -- is losing thousands of factories.

*                   Rising costs and tighter regulations are making the region less competitive than other Asian manufacturing hubs, including other parts of China. 
 New labour laws and higher taxes for foreign-invested companies, combined with tougher environmental rules and a strengthening Chinese currency, are squeezing Chinese companies that make labor-intensive products such as toys, clothing and furniture.


 This year "will likely mark the year (China) manufacturers were finally forced to take a general hit on profitability", UBS economist Jonathan Anderson said in a note. 


The Federation of Hong Kong Industries estimates 10 per cent of the 60,000 to 70,000 Hong Kong-owned factories in the delta region will close this year - likely the highest rate of closures in 20 years, deputy chairman Stanley Lau says. 


Some of these operations have been closed for good, some moved inland, and some relocated outside China.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23273438-36375,00.html

The shift in China's light-manufacturing sector is sending ripples around the world. Factory owners are looking beyond Guangdong and the Delta - where the cost of living, and hence, wages, has become relatively high - to new locations deeper inside China, where they can enjoy lower costs and investment incentives from local governments eager to attract businesses. 

In some cases, they are also turning to poorer countries with lower wage levels. That means new investment and assembly-line jobs in countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh - and possibly longer, more-complex supply chains for big buyers such as Wal-Mart. 

Those changes are being driven by fierce pressure to keep prices low for overseas buyers. *Prices for Chinese exports have already been rising at a quickened pace in recent years, and the new increases in labor and other costs could translate into even more expensive products for consumers and companies in the US and Europe - just as economists are worried about a possible recession in the US.*


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## Knobby22

True Unc.
We have exported our inflation and now we will be importing it instead.

I am scared we are entering a high inflation, low growth environment. The investments people will need to own to survive this will be somewhat different to the recent bull market we have enjoyed.


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## Trembling Hand

No slow down in the China bubble yet



> Railway Builder Draws $420 Billion in Shanghai IPO, People Say
> 
> By Bei Hu
> 
> Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China Railway Construction Corp., builder of more than half of the country's rail links since 1949, drew about 3 trillion yuan ($420 billion) for a Shanghai initial public offering, two people with direct knowledge said.
> 
> Demand for the sale was 135 times the offering, which may raise as much as 22.25 billion yuan, said the people, who declined to be identified before an announcement tonight. The amount of money the IPO locked in is believed to be the fourth largest for first-time domestic stock offerings in history, they said.
> 
> Institutions, whose bids helped set the price range for the sale, demanded more than 340 billion yuan of stock, said the people, citing preliminary numbers. Investors, including individuals and institutions, ordered about 2.67 trillion yuan of shares through the portion of the offering open to all buyers, they added.
> 
> Li Tingzhu, board secretary of China Railway Construction, and Raymond Tang, a Beijing-based spokes for Citic Securities Co., which is managing the sale, couldn't be reached in their Beijing offices.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az._lZa5plJA&refer=home


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## Stormin_Norman

Most people forget that the Chinese currency has been undervalued and there is a massive domestic market that will pick up excess supply of goods that the US now cannot afford.



> BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The State Information Center (SIC), a government think-tank, estimates China's* first quarter GDP growth at 10.6 pct*, with CPI growth at around 6.9 pct.
> 
> In a report published in the official China Securities Journal, the SIC said it expects overall fixed-asset investment to rise by 22 pct year-on-year in the first quarter and urban fixed-asset investment to rise by 23.5 pct.
> 
> The SIC sees imports rising by 23 pct year-on-year in the first quarter and exports rising by 20.5 pct, with the trade surplus at the end of the first quarter at 50.8 bln usd.
> 
> The think-tank projects first-quarter growth in industrial value-added output at 16.4 pct year-on-year and retail sales growth at 18 pct.
> 
> Broad M2 money supply growth is seen at 17.5 pct in the first quarter, with M0 and M1 rising about 19.5 pct and 13 pct, respectively, the SIC said.


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## Uncle Festivus

Stormin_Norman said:


> Most people forget that the Chinese currency has been undervalued and there is a massive domestic market that will pick up excess supply of goods that the US now cannot afford.




If only it were that simple. The data coming out of China is pointing to several  'runaway' spirals - large wage rises to offset _larger_ cost of living increases. Food & energy prices are rising faster than wages, so they are net worse off eg price inflation is eroding any offset by higher wages.

But the problem then becomes the lot of the employer, as they have to either trim their already low profit margins or pass costs on. Some manufacturers have already started to move their operations to cheaper parts of China, and even to Vietnam & Africa. 

I'd like to see how they are going to pass on the recent steel price increases of the order of 65%. Pass it on to the rest of the worlds consumers as inflation or reduce their own profits. A tight squeeze indeed!

Normal financial rules assume that  to stay in business a company must be at least profitable. This does not apply in China as it it common for marginal or even loss making industries and companies to be subsidised by the State via the banking system. This will have to be addressed if the China model is to be sustainable. The days of reckoning are getting closer.

So the idea of having all these millions of new consumers just waiting at the gates of commo capitalism is a bit of a furphy, as the main advantage up till now has been cheap labour, but prices are effectively rising faster than wages can keep up, that is, if many of these formerly rural workers can even find work after migrating to the big manufacturing centres.

So while they may be getting paid more, it's not the sort of wage that will sustain any sort of discretionary consumerism of the type of goods that western society takes for granted. The majority are doing their best just to survive. 

This could lead to far bigger social consequences as the lifestyle gap between peasant rural regions and cities becomes bigger. They are faced with huge problems, not only financial but social unrest, that may end in violence and maybe the end of communism in it's present form.


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## Uncle Festivus

> China is wrestling with consumer inflation that accelerated to 7.1% in January, up from a 6.5% rise in December, the National Bureau of Statistics reported last week. See full story.
> 
> As an example of higher prices, McDonald Corp.'s      China stores recently raised the chain's Big Mac price to 12 yuan ($1.7), up 14% from just seven months ago, reflecting higher meat and wheat prices.
> 
> In December, Kentucky Fried Chicken, owned by Yum! Brands Inc. also raised prices in its China stores for the first time in more than three years.
> 
> *      China's dilemma
> *
> Since last year, Chinese residents have seen prices of food and other staples increase more than their pay checks, a factor analysts said could potentially unleash social unrest. In light of that, some fear the minimum wage increase came too late.
> 
> "It's a dilemma for China," said David Riedel, president of overseas-stock specialist Riedel Research Group. "The reality of higher food and fuel prices has to be offset with higher wages. This is more wages catching up to where the market is today."
> 
> The wage increases could feed inflation, he said, explaining that companies absorbing higher wages have to pass those costs onto their customers.



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...14-3C01-468A-9C11-B7596BCE1A35}&dist=hplatest


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## Stormin_Norman

Uncle Festivus said:


> I agree with everything said




An over pegged currency is causing china internal inflation too. this keeps internally produced goods at a higher price then natural. this fuels inflation as external revenues come in. 

the reduction in the peg price of the chinese currency would make chinese produced products cheaper by the % of the reduction to the local market.

so far in china's development they have overpriced their currency, in effect raising the price of chinese goods in china. and lowering the price of chinese goods in america.

ripping their own people off while allowing walmart cheap crap to sell. hence the massive trade balances china is holding. theyre goods are artificially cheap in the world market, and artificially high in their domestic market.

im sure their central bank would be close to holding as much USD as american banks themselves given the trade surpluses a lower currency allows them to run.


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## Uncle Festivus

mmm...







> While China has held up well so far, there is mounting evidence that tighter credit rules are starting to bite.
> The Xinhua Finance index of business confidence fell from 67.7 to 60.3 in February and production index tumbled from 61.1 to 51.3. "Over coming months, we expect this deteriorating outlook to becoming increasingly evident in industrial production," said Barclays Capital.
> China's yuan has risen 2.6pc against the dollar this year alone as Beijing attempts to head off an inflationary crisis. Prices rose 7.1pc in January, with clear signs of knock-on effects into pay demands. The minimum wage in Guangdong is to rise 18pc in April. The triple effects of tight credit, inflation, and a rising yuan are squeezing export margins, tipping hundreds of companies into the red.


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## Uncle Festivus

China's trade surplus narrowed 63 percent in February, to $8.7 billion, as exports rose 6.5 percent””the slowest pace in six years.

The unexpected decline was attributed largely to the effects of the new year holiday and winter storms that closed some factories and delayed shipping. 

"We think the sharp slowdown in China's export growth in February is temporary," Mingchun Sun, an economist with Lehman Brothers, said in a report to clients, according to the Associated Press. 

*More troubling is another report that shows that Beijing is struggling to keep inflation under control. *

*The National Bureau of Statistics **says **producer prices for manufactured goods rose 6.6 percent in February from a year ago, while prices for raw materials, fuel, and power rose 9.7 percent from a year ago. *

The government has been wrestling with an acceleration in consumer inflation, driven largely by higher food prices as a result of shortages of pork and other foodstuffs. 

But the producer price report indicates that the price pressures are being felt throughout the economy, potentially raising the costs of goods sent to the United States. 

"Virtually everything is on the rise””not just fuel, but coal and iron ore””all these things are growing much stronger than fuel, plus labor costs are going up too," Jun Ma, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong


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## Uncle Festivus

.........China's Shanghai Composite took the biggest hit, slumping 5.4% to 3,411.49, a level it hasn't seen since April. The Shanghai index, which nearly doubled in 2007, has lost more than 35% to date in 2008, ranking as one of the worst performers among Asian benchmarks.........

.........Shares of Baoshan Iron & Steel, the mainland's largest steelmaker, tumbled 9%, after it reported a 3% decline in 2007 net income *on higher costs*, disappointing the market. 
Shares of other steelmakers also dropped, with Wuhan Iron & Steel Co. sinking 8.9% and Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. losing 5.4%..........

Increases in raw material costs are flowing through = lower profits + inflation. How can I short China?


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## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> .........China's Shanghai Composite took the biggest hit, slumping 5.4% to 3,411.49, a level it hasn't seen since April. The Shanghai index, which nearly doubled in 2007, has lost more than 35% to date in 2008, ranking as one of the worst performers among Asian benchmarks.........
> 
> .........Shares of Baoshan Iron & Steel, the mainland's largest steelmaker, tumbled 9%, after it reported a 3% decline in 2007 net income *on higher costs*, disappointing the market.
> Shares of other steelmakers also dropped, with Wuhan Iron & Steel Co. sinking 8.9% and Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. losing 5.4%..........
> 
> Increases in raw material costs are flowing through = lower profits + inflation. How can I short China?




By going long Aussie Manufacture.


cheers


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## Uncle Festivus

explod said:


> By going long Aussie Manufacture.
> 
> 
> cheers



Yes, but do we still have one of those?


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## explod

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, but do we still have one of those?





Yeh a bit early yet but as China's labor costs rise secondary industries will emerge off our resources, like smelting then rolling our own steel.  Penny with this approach will soon drop with the new government IMHO.  But will take years and huge investment.


----------



## kransky

is it labour costs that are responsible for the rising costs or the 65% rise in iron ore prices?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some wealth destruction capitalist style for the communists?

----------------------------

*SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Frustrated mainland Chinese investors, who have watched the country's main stock market in Shanghai plummet more than 40% since October, have been wondering when their typically hands-on government will move to reverse the fall. *


The word from Beijing: It just might not. 

Repeated calls for China's financial authorities to prop up the country's *sharply deflated stock market* have gone largely unanswered as the government directs its focus on *combating inflation*. That's a surprise to many Chinese investors, who are used to government control of everything from the price of gasoline to how many children they can have. 

To make matters worse, they've also seen the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and rescue Wall Street investment banks to keep the U.S. financial system running smoothly, which has perked up stocks. 
"The U.S. government is intervening to boost the markets, why can't China?" said Xu Xiaonian, professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School, in a telephone interview. 







Chinese financial authorities have taken smaller steps to make it easier for new money to come into the market, but those actions have failed to diminish the deep decline in China's benchmark indexes. The government has so far resisted making a bigger move by cutting trading taxes. 
To a high degree, its reluctance to intervene in the country's stock market stems from having a more urgent priority, *tackling the highest inflation China has experienced in nearly a dozen years*. Plus, there's no agreement among the financial arms of the central government on how to handle the stock crash. The central bank, which reports directly to the top authorities, has no direct authority over the stock market. 
Nevertheless, China's new class of individual investors is clamoring for changes. Enticed by the rapid gains in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which vaulted more than five times in less than two years, millions of individuals *ploughed their family savings* into the stock market. 
*They've already lost a lot*. The Shanghai Composite has tumbled to below 3,500 from October's all-time high of nearly 6,100. Company stock valuations have cratered to about 40 times earnings per share from about 70 times. *Household fortunes have evaporated*, sparking calls for the government to step in.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={3C72D2E9-E9BC-43FB-97BA-261701D15D96}


----------



## numbercruncher

Uncle Festivus said:


> . Company stock valuations have cratered to about 40 times earnings per share from about 70 times.





Seriously build these people some Casinos, Odds are better.


----------



## Sean K

Perhaps the chinese sharemarket isn't a good representation of whether the bull is still alive, or not. Will the punters on the exchange bring down their economy? Is that possible? 


Will be more interesting to see the next quarters results as it may be a better indication of any fallout from global slow down over the past few months.



> *China's economy expands 10.6%*
> April 16, 2008 - 6:13PM
> 
> China's economy expanded 10.6% in the first quarter, underlining the strength of the nation's expansion as a slump in the US drags down global growth.
> 
> Gross domestic product rose more than the 10.4% median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News after gaining 11.2% in the previous three months. The statistics bureau released the figures in Beijing today.


----------



## Kauri

*



CHINA'S economic growth is cooling as a result of the global slowdown, but production costs are climbing, with producer price inflation hitting 8 per cent in March, up from 6.6 per cent in February.

Click to expand...



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23551239-643,00.html


*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The main point all along with China is that input costs are rising (oil, iron ore & food) and margins are going even more negative ie more companies are operating at a loss thanks to the government subsidising funds and or mis-allocation of funds. All the while an expanding money supply with which to pay for it, as accumulated $US depreciate at a growing rate, along with $US denominated investments.


----------



## Temjin

The Chinese government are doing the right thing. No intervention in the stock market to bail out the risk takers = GOOD. Focus on combating inflation by restricting access to credit through monetary policy and banking reserve requirement = REALLY GOOD.

At least they admit there is an inflation problem and they are doing everything in their power to control it. Unlike the US...what inflation? So no such thing, let's just keep printing to bail out everyone! (except the middle class/poor)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Actually starting to feel a bit sorry for them now - must be a bounce any day now . Maybe Rocky & Bullwinkle (Paulson & Bernanke) can offer to show them how _real _capitalists do it .


----------



## Uncle Festivus

.......







> Of course, China's growth may prove more fragile than it looks. Inflation has reached the danger zone of 8.3pc. The central bank tightened credit again yesterday. The Shanghai bourse has lost almost half its value since peaking last autumn. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, warns that China faces post-Olympics "crunch" as *the colossal bad debts of the state banking system* exact their toll.


----------



## ithatheekret

I think the big picture that most of the media twits playing where's wally have missed , is that simple thing called need .

When looking at the emerging countries for buffer in our case and other producer nations to some extent , the majority have there eye focus on China now and a / the build up to India .

These types have lost sight of the ball and are running up the field alright , but they will either fumble or drop the play , because there's Brazil and quite a few Sth American countries next , as well as other Asian nation like Vietnam etc., to come next . 

These nations have needs . Those needs will grow just as their cities and populations are .

All will need more infrastructure etc., etc., and will begin to grow economies of their own , that will blossom this time around as they are the ones that can easily set themselves up as bread baskets etc. etc.


----------



## Kauri

End of the China bull?

  aahhh.. you know what they say about bulls in china shops..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> Actually starting to feel a bit sorry for them now - must be a bounce any day now . Maybe Rocky & Bullwinkle (Paulson & Bernanke) can offer to show them how _real _capitalists do it .




stocks rise and stocks fall UF what's your surprise? You think it can just go up and up and up? What u posted is what a normal market does.. All I can see is a coming opportunity.

regardless of the spin u are whipping up there is a opportunity in the making here in my opinion we just need the time element to confirm it.

P.S and who said that conventional chart patterns don't pay off check out that double top.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

>Apocalypto< said:


> stocks rise and stocks fall UF what's your surprise? You think it can just go up and up and up? What u posted is what a normal market does.. All I can see is a coming opportunity.
> 
> regardless of the spin u are whipping up there is a opportunity in the making here in my opinion we just need the time element to confirm it.
> 
> P.S and who said that conventional chart patterns don't pay off check out that double top.




Hi J. 

No, I'm not surprised at all. I have called it all the way.

No spin to whip up, just hard data as you show too. Make what you want of it. I only present the facts - China is not immune from profit margin erosion from rising inputs. Both China & India are increasingly outsourcing to other 3rd world countries like Thailand?, Vietnam and African nations.

There is a surprising lack of reporting by anyone of the slump going on in China.

So how did _you_ 'trade it'?

In the meantime the rest of the world is helping to pay for their 'progress' in the form of higher prices.


----------



## CamKawa

*China's Stocks Are Set for Biggest Weekly Decline on Record*
``It's panic selling and the confidence of the market has collapsed,'' said Chen Shide, who manages the equivalent of $212 million at GF Fund Management Co. in Guangzhou
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apTHzJ8e6blA&refer=home

CSI 300 INDEX


----------



## numbercruncher

Hows Petrochina hey ? Was the worlds first Trillion Dollar company now down 60pc+ from then !

Maybe the Chinese are learning all sorts of harsh lessons about credit binges , gambling etc 

All the cheap Labor in the world isnt going to save you from a Global slowdown baby.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And what a bounce it is. Amazing what you can do with the savings from a lower tax rate .



> *HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Chinese stocks soared in Shanghai Thursday, after the government slashed a tax on share transactions in a move aimed at bolstering a stock market that ranks among the worst performers in Asia so this year.*
> 
> The government's decision to slash the stamp duty on share transactions from 0.3% to 0.1%, announced late Wednesday, also boosted China-related stocks in Hong Kong. The reduction marks a reversal of the increase in the stamp duty imposed by Beijing last year as part of its measures to cool surging stock prices.
> "I don't think China wants a runaway up-market, but they probably want to stop the rot. The (Shanghai Composite) was down nearly 50% from its highs and there was a loss of investor confidence, which is not so good," said Howard Gorges, vice chairman at South China Brokerages. "We may have seen the bottom of the Shanghai market for now."



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...A7E-4DB2-B05D-224D80C5DAC6}&dist=MostReadHome


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A China update, or, what happened to our great saviour?

Australia's eggs in the China basket case? 

A severe recession for Australia and civil revolution for China?



> Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economic slowdown is deepening, with overcapacity in almost all industries, and won’t bottom out until after the first quarter of next year, two senior officials said today.
> “The international financial crisis is having a severe domestic impact,” Li Yizhong, head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press briefing in Beijing. “We don’t think we’ve bottomed out yet, and the impact will broaden further in December.”
> Exports fell for the first time in seven years last month, imports plunged and manufacturing contracted by a record as the global recession pushed the world’s fourth-biggest economy into a slump. The slowdown will deepen before a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package kicks in from the second quarter of next year, Liu He, a senior economic policy official, said at a conference in Beijing.
> Stocks fell the most in three weeks after the cautions and the weakest retail-sales figures in nine months. The CSI 300 Index declined 4.2 percent.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKXiB34dAAI0

Coal - the greenies don't have to worry after all?



> Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, may face an energy oversupply within the next two years as the global recession slows the country's economy.
> The nation may see a surplus of coal, fuels and electricity because of waning demand and a ``sizable'' expansion in output capacity, Wang Siqiang, a deputy director at the National Energy Administration, said at the China Energy and Environment Summit in Beijing today.
> Chinese exports fell for the first time last month in seven years as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression slashed demand, retarding industrial fuel consumption and electricity use. The government is expediting project approvals in the energy sector to help stimulate the economy, which expanded at the weakest pace in five years in the third quarter.
> ``China's energy demand growth has slowed and previously tight supplies have turned relatively ample,'' said Wang.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3.b0h.nSPww


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And.....the market's take a tumble on the news China hasn't disconnected......

The bullish view - the stimuli are working
The bearish view - the stimuli is promoting a new round of bubbles, pushing the stock market higher but still making things that nobody wants ie steel & aluminium etc etc? Bad news for BHP & RIO etc etc



> April 16 (Bloomberg) -- China’s gross domestic product, battered by collapsing exports, grew at the slowest pace in almost ten years, probably marking the low point for the world’s third-biggest economy.
> GDP expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, after a 6.8 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure compares with the 6.2 percent median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
> China’s economy shows signs that Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan is working, fueling a surge in bank lending and spurring the Shanghai Composite Index to an eight-month high. The State Council said yesterday that it will cut export taxes for some electronics products and offer cheaper credit to manufacturers to spur shipments overseas.
> “The recovery is still at a very fragile stage,” said Yu Song, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. “The tug of war between upside risks from domestic investments and downside risks from weaker external demand will continue.”
> Today’s report coincides with a statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that China isn’t a currency manipulator. His stance eases pressure on China to allow its currency to rise, hurting efforts to revive exports.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az4OW44aUopA&refer=worldwide


----------



## Aussiejeff

Uncle Festivus said:


> And.....the market's take a tumble on the news China hasn't disconnected......
> 
> The bullish view - the stimuli are working
> The bearish view - the stimuli is promoting a new round of bubbles, pushing the stock market higher but still making things that nobody wants ie steel & aluminium etc etc? Bad news for BHP & RIO etc etc
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az4OW44aUopA&refer=worldwide




I hear a bull in a china shop - and it's roaring in pain. 

Maybe the hero of the story Unca ObamaSan can administer an overdose of bubble-bath balm to ease the badness away.

Tell me the story again, Puff Daddy....


----------



## Sean K

Uncle Festivus said:


> And.....the market's take a tumble on the news China hasn't disconnected......



My charts must be upside down.


----------



## Aussiejeff

kennas said:


> My charts must be upside down.




LOL


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> My charts must be upside down.




Intraday futures, right on midday big spike down.

Time for backtracking - do not offend your biggest lender?



> April 15 (Bloomberg) --  U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner refrained from labeling China as a currency manipulator, backtracking from an assertion he made during his confirmation hearings in January.
> In its first semiannual report on foreign-exchange policies since Geithner became secretary, the Treasury said that while the yuan remains “undervalued,” no country “met the standards” for illegal currency manipulation during the period of the report, from July 2008 through December 2008.
> The conclusion clashes with Geithner’s January 22 statement to a Senate panel that President Barack Obama “believes that China is manipulating its currency.” Today’s shift may anger U.S. lawmakers, companies and trade unions who have sought measures to punish nations perceived to have undervalued exchange rates.
> “Clearly the Treasury has made more of a political decision than an economic decision here,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The truth is the Chinese manipulate their currency.”



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIlW3KeVLqW0&refer=home

Too much steel?


----------



## Largesse

IS COMETH


----------



## Sean K

Yep, China has no money and is bankrupt.

It will always be the way. 

*CNPC secures $35bn to buy energy assets*

Sarah-Jane Tasker | September 10, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

OIL and gas giant China National Petroleum Corp has secured a $US30 billion ($35bn) low-interest loan from China Development Bank to finance overseas acquisitions, with Australia's lucrative liquefied natural gas assets believed to be on its radar.

China has aggressively sought opportunities to invest in overseas oil and gas projects, among other resources, with Australia high on its target list. 

CNPC subsidiary PetroChina has already made a significant commitment to Western Australia's massive Gorgon LNG project, agreeing to buy $50bn worth of LNG from the project over 20 years, guaranteeing its viability. 

Analysts said companies with LNG projects about to be developed were likely to be on the Chinese giant's radar, with Santos and Oil Search flagged as potential targets.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Yep, China has no money and is bankrupt.




Not quite, but they do have plenty of USD's that they are frantically trying to swap for things that have real value though - what will the sellers do with USD's??


----------



## Real1ty

Largesse said:


> IS COMETH




Is a slow paddler....


----------



## yjtrader

Real1ty said:


> Is a slow paddler....




hehehe


----------



## Mr J

Largesse said:


> IS COMETH




I always loved this one.


----------



## sinner

Took a month, but this distribution finally played out on Friday and retested today.

China led on the way up, will it lead on the way down? I am extremely bearish.

PS: For anyone reading this who has an IB account, what sort of spreads do you get on HSI futs?


----------



## skc

Highly unconfirmed rumour that Chinese government holds up the market before the National Day holidays (1 Oct and rest of week), and the big falls will come soon...

Take what you care from that.


----------



## Aussiejeff

skc said:


> Highly unconfirmed rumour that Chinese government holds up the market before the National Day holidays (1 Oct and rest of week), and the big falls will come soon...
> 
> Take what you care from that.




Can you unconfirm that?


----------



## skc

Aussiejeff said:


> Can you unconfirm that?




Of course not! What does *"highly unconfirmed"* mean to you? 

I just heard that from some local punters in Hong Kong.


----------



## wildkactus

I have heard that up here as well, but don't no how true it is/was.
a lot if it coming from the bars where the traders / bankers hang out.

the chinese gov does have a lot of cash to throw around though and they like everything to be all pretty for their national days, this one is a biggy as it is 60 years since Mao started the PRC.

Happy Trading


----------



## Aussiejeff

wildkactus said:


> I have heard that up here as well, but don't no how true it is/was.
> a lot if it coming from the bars where the traders / bankers hang out.
> 
> the chinese gov does have a lot of cash to throw around though and they like everything to be all pretty for their national days, this one is a biggy as it is 60 years since Mao started the PRC.
> 
> Happy Trading




UP THE REDS!!!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just think - if you are Chinese and someone says to you 'you are 1 in a million' then you share that with 1500 other 'unique' Chinese......



> James S. Chanos, one of America's foremost investors who built a multi-billion fortune foreseeing the collapse of Enron, believes he has identified the next big global conglomerate to fail: China.
> 
> Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for collapse - not the sustained growth most economists widely believe will help lift the global economy out of recession.
> 
> Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, says China's surging property sector is bloated with *speculative capital* and looks like "Dubai times 1,000 — or worse."
> "Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he told CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China."




http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/58114,business,hedge-funder-chanos-predicts-chinas-collapse



> ............with even a hint of the possibility that China may have *fabricated some of its astounding economic numbers*.
> 
> 
> Whatever the merits of Mr. Chanos’s case, what cannot be denied is that something is up in the air (although again it is very difficult to put one’s finger on it). Nevertheless, even some Chinese officials have admitted that China might indeed be vulnerable to asset bubbles. And while remembering that China had a huge stimulus program, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy stated on French radio, albeit commenting on the global economy, that "in flooding the economic and financial system with public money we have also created *bubbles* which will have to be absorbed."






> Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that *the country is producing far too much*.
> “The Chinese,” he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, “are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be *unable to sell*.”






> The easy credit might well have also encouraged *overproduction* of finished goods with reports that textile mills were told to keep operating via soft loans in order to keep people in jobs.
> 
> Such is the delicate state of the world's recovery with the rest of Asia increasingly dependent on trade with China ("the second decoupling"), that decisions taken in Beijing over the next few months are going to be of huge importance.




http://www.icis.com/blogs/asian-chemical-connections/2010/01/china-govts-actions-critical-f.html


----------



## Unnamed User

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just think - if you are Chinese and someone says to you 'you are 1 in a million' then you share that with 1500 other 'unique' Chinese......




Not really a poster but more of a reader but had to make comment here.

So 2 years on from your original post that we may have seen the end of the China growth story, and we clearly haven't at this stage, so why would now be any different?

Of course if you throw enough darts at the board you will always hit a Bulls Eye eventually :jump:

China was effected during the GFC to some extent just like the rest of the world but has powered on like many other Asian countries and while there are always those that like to question the figures released so far they are wrong and does anyone actually want to wait around (and miss opportunities) while they throw dart after dart while muttering under their breath "This dart won't miss".......


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Unnamed User said:


> Not really a poster but more of a reader but had to make comment here.
> 
> So 2 years on from your original post that we may have seen the end of the China growth story, and we clearly haven't at this stage, so why would now be any different?
> 
> Of course if you throw enough darts at the board you will always hit a Bulls Eye eventually :jump:
> 
> China was effected during the GFC to some extent just like the rest of the world but has powered on like many other Asian countries and while there are always those that like to question the figures released so far they are wrong and does anyone actually want to wait around (and miss opportunities) while they throw dart after dart while muttering under their breath "This dart won't miss".......




The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.

Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?

The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.

In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?

It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO


----------



## Aussiejeff

Uncle Festivus said:


> The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.
> 
> Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?
> 
> The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.
> 
> In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?
> 
> It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO




IMO what IS a known fact is that the World's "Population Bubble" is THE one biggy that is propping all other "bubbles" up.

As long as the World Pop Charts keep heading skywards, demand for pretty much everything is at least maintained or rapidly increased as well. 

Without the current rapid World Pop Growth, most other related "growth bubbles" (economic / financial / RE etc) would almost certainly *POP* - some for good.

_"Populate or (have your economy) perish"_ is even more desirable now than ever.

Is everyone here holding up their end in that regard??  

Chairman KRudd is onto this and will see us right with a massive boost to immigration to ward off any economic demons...


----------



## Unnamed User

Uncle Festivus said:


> The time scale is irrelevant, but what is relevant is that China will continue on the same course while ever it has a vault full of $USD I-O-U's. This will continue to be the source of even more overproduction and eventually a glut. The idea that the domestic economy will somehow take up the export reduction slack and become some sort of self fulfilling positive cycle is itself short on logic and common-sense.
> 
> Also too is that while ever they have artificial markets in just about everything, ie they do not allow the market to find equilibrium, then they are setting themselves up for a fall, possibly THE fall that will take down the rest of the global economy with it, esp Australia. I'm sure if we were to peg our currency at 30c to the USD we would be a dominant exporter too? They just aren't playing on the same field as everybody else, and the political structure continues to facilitate the inefficiencies and corruption that both hides the truth behind the 'amazing' figures that come out and the parlous real state of affairs behind the scenes?
> 
> The LME data indicates to me that they have already had their fill of the commodities that they need for now, building redundant infrastructures and stockpiling finished goods that nobody wants to buy. You only have to go shopping to see that, if you are smart enough to haggle, that retailers are desperate to shift stuff, even at cost and sometimes loss.
> 
> In summary - too many depreciating $USD's flowing into hard assets before they become worthless, creating bubbles and overproduction. Australia will be hit hard?
> 
> It's only a matter of time, but that is the unknown, as always. IMHO




The timescale is irrelevant?

So you can just make a call and in 15 years you are right?

My question still stands and you didn't answer it.

Why is anything different now, 2 years after your first wrong call?

All the above reasons you have given were all applicable 2 years ago, so what is different now.

I agree with your call on Commodities, in the short term only and AussieJeff makes some good points imo.


----------



## CanOz

You lot sound like i did when i first moved here. I thought 'this can't continue', but you can still see so many people upgrading their living conditions, spending their ample savings. Enjoying life as we have for the last 70 years, and getting into debt, yes. 

This is China's day, get used to it. Asia is the new economic superpower and we are trading with our partners in Asia very actively. 

North America is doomed to consume more than it produces forever, unless that weak dollar finally kicks in.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Unnamed User said:


> The timescale is irrelevant?
> 
> So you can just make a call and in 15 years you are right?
> 
> My question still stands and you didn't answer it.
> 
> Why is anything different now, 2 years after your first wrong call?
> 
> All the above reasons you have given were all applicable 2 years ago, so what is different now.
> 
> I agree with your call on Commodities, in the short term only and AussieJeff makes some good points imo.




Well yes, the timeframe is unknown, but if you see a car going down the street with only 1 wheel nut you know eventually what will happen? The thread title ends with a question mark and my posts are my interpretation & discussion of what may happen in the future based on ecological (desertification) & financial <sustainability> or lack there of ?

Commodities - short term? Timescale? FYI have a look at the LME wharehouse stocks at this site

http://www.infomine.com/commodities/

if there really was an insatiable hunger by China for commodities then the stockpiles would be scraping along the bottom? It tells me that they have had their fill, the system is saturated and is waiting for global consumption to resume? 

And good to see you are contributing to the ASF community now 



CanOz said:


> You lot sound like i did when i first moved here. I thought 'this can't continue', but you can still see so many people upgrading their living conditions, spending their ample savings. Enjoying life as we have for the last 70 years, and getting into debt, yes.
> 
> This is China's day, get used to it. Asia is the new economic superpower and we are trading with our partners in Asia very actively.
> 
> North America is doomed to consume more than it produces forever, unless that weak dollar finally kicks in.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




That's the problem then - consuming more than production? The only way it can do this is by having the worlds default currency. The US is a large importer of Chinese goods. Employment is now back to the same level it was 10 years ago. The most generous predictions by economists say they _might_ create 1 million jobs this year, if the so called recovery eventuates. In the meantime consumption of Chinese goods stays low, tax reciepts keep dropping and expenditure keeps going up.

Simple supply demand mathematics, with dodgy data? It will catch up in the end ie when the reserves dry up? Japan was held in the same regard 20 years ago, and they are still a basket case - *convergent capitalism* - you can only submit your consumers to an ultimate debt to income ratio before they say _no more living beyond our means,_ a la Japan, the US the UK, Spain, Greece, Iceland ad infinitum? Who then buys the Chinese _stuff_?

There is also the remote possiblity that should something happen in China ie pandemic, civil war over the haves & have nots etc that because it is the worlds manufacturer there could be a big void in supply? Developed countries have little or no manufacturing of this type anymore.


----------



## CanOz

Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.

Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.
> 
> Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?
> 
> CanOz




Yes I can, and do. 

And I do care what happens because it will decide the lifestyle of my friends and family long after I'm gone.

But, as I can see my views upset a lot of people I shall no longer visit ASF anymore. I wish you all good luck.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-expert-says-chinas-boom-to-end-soon-2010-01-16?pagenumber=1


----------



## Aussiejeff

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes I can, and do.
> 
> And I do care what happens because it will decide the lifestyle of my friends and family long after I'm gone.
> 
> But, as I can see my views upset a lot of people I shall no longer visit ASF anymore. I wish you all good luck.
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crisis-expert-says-chinas-boom-to-end-soon-2010-01-16?pagenumber=1




Sorry to hear that Unc. Thanks for raising your side of the argument. Without two sides, there is no debate.... 

Seems the polarization of opinions in the aftermath of the GFC is still increasing to the point where many "moderate" pundits are giving up offering any opinion at all.

Soon the forums will be populated only by hardliners from both sides.

I myself am a rare visitor now - seems I may as well be pissing into the wind with anything other than a cynical remark or two regarding the follies of the human condition..

Ciao and good luck then! 

I for one would welcome you back anytime. 


aj


----------



## Macquack

CanOz said:


> Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?




Obviously you do CanOz, you do live there.

What is it with you expats? You get a good paying job, embrace the new culture and then the *new motherland's ideologies become gospel *and the country where you came from are just a bunch of nongs.

BTW, Uncle Festivus please come back, ASF is turning into a running of the bulls festival.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Uncle, you think too much. Just because things should do something, doesn't mean they will.
> 
> Who gives a sweet flying rats ass what happens to China?! The questions is....can you profit from it?
> 
> CanOz




Can, like you I have spent some time in China, I was also of the opinion that the GFC would hammer the place. A Chinese mate told me the local economy is so strong it would carry it through with minimal damage. 

He was right I was wrong. 

My dad has done business with china for 15 years now, he was told be a manufacturing company there told him they were starting to have a labor shortage! yes a labor shortage in China! He could not find the right works with the experience he needed. 

I just about fell of my seat when I heard that.

UF a civil war in china? Yeh right.


----------



## wildkactus

>Apocalypto< said:


> My dad has done business with china for 15 years now, he was told be a manufacturing company there told him they were starting to have a labor shortage! yes a labor shortage in China! He could not find the right works with the experience he needed.
> 
> I just about fell of my seat when I heard that.




Have been at meetings lately with a few main land factories and that is the same story they are telling me, things are not looking good After CNY this year for the return of workers to the Pearl River Delta, as there is a lot more jobs up north and west now, the workers don't have to travel as far to find good paying jobs

The other thing is that a lot of the younger people don't want to work in the factories the same as their parents did, they all want the office jobs, 

The garment industry is in all sorts of trouble, as china is now getting to expensive for the low cost garment sector, they are moving the factories to indo, vietnam, Bangaladesh for the cheaper labour, plus these countries also attract the lower tarriffs.

oh well i guess that's progress for ya,

happy trading


----------



## doctorj

The contrarian call on China is starting to gain momentum.  Hugh Hendry thinks the game is up...



> However, the composition of China's growth has undergone a potentially treacherous change: in the absence of expanding foreign demand for its exports, it has instead come to rely on a massive surge in domestic bank lending to fuel its growth rate.




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-warns-investors-infatution-is-misguided.html


----------



## ducati916

From Bloomberg,



> Beijing’s office vacancy rate of 22.4 percent in the third quarter of last year was the ninth-highest of 103 markets tracked by CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., a real estate broker. Those figures don’t include many buildings about to open, such as the city’s tallest, the 6.6-billion yuan ($965 million) 74- story China World Tower 3.
> 
> Empty buildings are sprouting across China as companies with access to some of the $1.4 trillion in new loans last year build skyscrapers. Former Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist Andy Xie and hedge fund manager James Chanos say the country’s property market is in a bubble.
> 
> “There’s a monumental property bubble and fixed-asset investment bubble that China has underway right now,” Chanos said in a Jan. 25 Bloomberg Television interview. “And deflating that gently will be difficult at best.”
> 
> A glut of factories in China is “wreaking far-reaching damage on the global economy,” stoking trade tensions and raising the risk of bad loans, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in November.
> 
> The risks are so great that a decade of little or no growth, as Japan experienced in the 1990s, can’t be dismissed, said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor in the School of Economics and Management at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, ranked China’s top university by the Times newspaper in London.
> 
> “You have state-owned enterprises using borrowed funds from the stimulus bidding up the price of land ”” not even desirable plots of land ”” in Beijing to astronomical rates,” Chovanec said. “At the same time you have 30 percent-plus vacancy rates and slumping rents in commercial property so it’s just a case of when you recognize the losses ”” or don’t.”
> 
> China’s lending surged to 1.39 trillion yuan in January, more than in the previous three months combined.
> 
> “The liquidity bubble last year went to the property market,” said Taizo Ishida, San Francisco-based lead manager for the $212-million Matthews Asia Pacific Fund, in a phone interview. “I was in Shanghai and Shenzhen three weeks ago and the prices were just eye-popping, just really amazing. Generally I’m not buying Chinese stocks.”
> 
> Chanos, founder of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., predicted that China could be “Dubai times 100 or 1,000.” Real estate prices there have fallen almost 50 percent from their 2008 peak as the emirate struggles under at least $80 billion of debt. The economy may shrink 0.4 percent this year, Shuaa Capital, the biggest U.A.E. investment bank, says.
> 
> The commercial property space under construction in China at the end of November was the equivalent of 6,800 Burj Khalifas ”” the 160-story Dubai skyscraper that’s the world’s tallest.
> 
> Overcapacity may be looming in manufacturing as well. China’s investments in new factories and properties surged 67 percent last year to 15.2 trillion yuan, more than Russia’s gross domestic product. Excess steel capacity may have reached about 132 million tons in 2009, more than the 87.5 million tons from Japan, the world’s second-biggest producer. The Beijing based EU Chamber of Commerce report said a “looming deluge” of extra cement capacity is being built.


----------



## Wysiwyg

If every country is in debt then who are the creditors?


----------



## ducati916

Wysiwyg said:


> If every country is in debt then who are the creditors?




Mr Printing Press

jog on
duc


----------



## Aussiejeff

ducati916 said:


> Mr *Printing Press*
> 
> jog on
> duc




Hey Duc..

That "printing press" thingy sounds just the ticket.

Know where I can pick one up cheap?



P.S. I tried to grow a "money tree" but it withered and died. Useless.


aj


----------



## Aussiejeff

Speaking of yuans, it seems China is close to letting it rise 5% against other currencies.



> Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- China may let its currency appreciate by 5 percent as early as next month to prevent economic growth from stoking inflation, according to Stephen Jen of BlueGold Capital Management LLP.
> 
> Policy makers may also raise interest rates this year to cool an economy that expanded by 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest increase in two years, Jen said in an interview this week. The central bank last week ordered lenders to boost the amount of cash they must put aside as reserves for the second time this year in an attempt to curb growth in loans.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aR0UEJblAXgc

If so, what effect would such a 5% rise have on the cost of Chinese imports to Australia (a not insignificant part of our economy).

I'm presuming prices on imported Chinese products would have to go up to cover the adjustment, thereby placing a bit more pressure on RBA's inflation targets??

Sorry, I'm a dummy.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

ducati916 said:


> Mr Printing Press
> 
> jog on
> duc




History never repeats?? They invented printing & paper money, so might as well put it to good use, as do their modern day financial counterparts........Helicopter Benny Berwanky




> The first paper banknotes appeared in China about 806 CE.
> 
> The most famous Chinese issuer of paper money was Kublai Khan, the Mongol who ruled the Chinese empire in the 13th century. Kublai Khan established currency credibility by decreeing that his paper money must be accepted by traders on pain of death. As further encouragement, he confiscated all gold and silver, even if it was brought in by foreign traders. Marco Polo was impressed by the efficiency of the Chinese system, as he chronicles in his _The Travels of Marco Polo (Il Milione)_.
> "All these pieces of paper are issued with as much solemnity and authority as if they were of pure gold or silver; and on every piece a variety of officials, whose duty it is, have to write their names, and to put their seals. And when all is prepared duly, the chief officer deputed by the Khan smears the seal entrusted to him with vermilion, and impresses it on the paper, so that the form of the seal remains imprinted upon it in red; the money is then authentic. Anyone forging it would be punished with death. *And the Khan causes every year to be made such a vast quantity of this money, which costs him nothing,* that it must equal in amount all the treasure of the world." ​Yet for all the threats, paper money did not succeed everywhere. In Persia, its forcible introduction in 1294 led to a total collapse of trade. By the 15th century even China had more or less given up paper money. Over this period, paper notes grew in production to the point that their value rapidly depreciated and inflation soared.




Substitute "the Khan" for "the US Fed" and presto!

Commodity glut & the second round of the GFC? Hard landing & reality for Australia?


----------



## SirHenry

Chinese exports dived by about 20% in 2009 so China is using it's foreign reserves to pump prime the economy.  This strategy is similar to the spending policies of the Fed and European Central Banks except the Chinese don't have to borrow any money until their reserves run out.  The problem for the Chinese is that they cannot convert to a consumer economy overnight.  If the export market does not recover soon then they are in trouble and unfortunately for them growth rates in developed countries are likely to be lowish for the next few years so a pull back is likely.  That means lower commodity prices.


----------



## ducati916

SirHenry said:


> Chinese exports dived by about 20% in 2009 so China is using it's foreign reserves to pump prime the economy.  This strategy is similar to the spending policies of the Fed and European Central Banks except the Chinese don't have to borrow any money until their reserves run out.  The problem for the Chinese is that they cannot convert to a consumer economy overnight.  If the export market does not recover soon then they are in trouble and unfortunately for them growth rates in developed countries are likely to be lowish for the next few years so a pull back is likely.  That means lower commodity prices.




Sir,

The Chinese problem goes far deeper than that. The reserves that you speak of were sterilised inflows: viz. America buys $100 of Chinese goods, buys $100 of Yuan to pay for purchased goods. Chinese government, print Yuan to re-purchase $100 and [sterilise] purchase US Treasury Paper.

In this way, exchange rates are stabilised, or, pegged. Chinese monetary policy therefore becomes Federal Reserve Monetary policy, hence, China inflates.

Thus Chinese foregin reserves, are only fiat currency, which are only liabilities. Fiat currency is not an asset. It cannot extinguish debt. Therefore to reduce the debt burden in real terms, further inflation is created.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916

By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist who writes for New Deal 2.0 and Yves Smith

Conventional wisdom holds that the Chinese are due (as in overdue) for a revaluation of their currency, the renminbi. For instance, a recent report from Goldman argues that China will raise the value of the RMB against the dollar by 5% this year. The argument is that the move is needed to slow down an overheating economy. 

But to a large degree, whether you agree with that as a remedy depends on what one’s reading is not just of China’s notoriously misleading statistics, but of the underlying growth dynamics, which are well out of bounds of any previous pattern, and not in a good way, either. 

We question whether a revaluation is the right answer for them, and more important, whether the Chinese themselves see a revaluation as a plus. The government has engineered an enormous increase in money and credit in the past year. In fact, it seems to be as great as 5 years’ growth in credit in the previous Chinese bubble. The increase in money and credit is so great and so abrupt that you tend to get a high inflation quite quickly even if there are under utilised resources. Add to this the fact that China simultaneously is providing massive fiscal stimulus.

This combination is the making of a very messy situation. If China seeks to sustain demand via fiscal policy, the result is likely to be a big inflation problem. With many Chinese students steeped in Chicago School monetary theory coming home and assuming positions of authority, they could push for an aggressive, Paul Volcker-style effort to stop inflation.

But, what if the they don’t? Inflation can take off and thereby begin to ERODE the competitiveness of Chinese exports. Nouriel Roubini pointed out this issue in 2007: if China didn’t revalue, inflation would do the trick regardless. A continued high rate of inflation relative to its trade partners would push up the price of goods in home currency terms, which in turn translates into higher export prices. This might be the real reason why China is so reticent to revalue its currency. The Americans might go crazy if the Chinese devalued, but if the inflation is high enough, they might have to do it, as it will severely erode their terms of trade and cause their tradeables sector to collapse.

Or the hard-line monetarists triumphing by fighting inflation and the result is riots as unemployment increases.

It could get very ugly.

This could be happening now in China, although this is the opposite of prevailing views. The consensus is that inflation is a couple per cent and even that is largely due to higher pork prices thanks to a lousy corn harvest.

However, economists such as those at Lombard Street in the UK, Jim Walker, Simon Hunt and the like try to figure out the changes quarter to quarter in Chinese nominal GDP which is reported only year on year. And they come up with giant double digit growth rates for the second half of last year.

Now this is complicated by the fact that the Chinese have revised up their GDP numbers and they put all the revisions into the final quarter of the year. But when these analysts try to adjust for that statistical screw up they still come up with giant nominal GDP increases. Lombard Street thinks it was twenty five per cent or so in the second half of last year. They think it was twenty per cent real and five per cent inflation.

Economies of any size never grow at a twenty per cent real rate. And Simon Hunt says if you look at proxies like power output and rail traffic you don’t get those kinds of numbers for real growth, which suggests that inflation must be higher than four or five per cent. In general, if a real GDP figure looks sus, the first figure you examine critically is the GDP deflator. 

So some evidence suggests that China’s inflation could already be at a double digit level. It is hard to say. But if it is that high, then the resultant inflation will cause a real revaluation of the trade weighted exchange rate.

And more so if the dollar rallies. That could well crush the volume of exports and the profitability of the industrial tradeables sector. Exports are the only area where China makes any kind of money because they can sell these products for about 10 times what they obtain for a comparable product in the domestic economy (where profits are virtually nil). The export sector is a big contributor to overall super excessive fixed investment in China. Dollar appreaciation means foreign direct investment will go to zero net.

There will be strong forces for a reduction in fixed investment in this large sector. Hence, there is a good chance that even without monetary tightening by the Chinese authorities, the overall fixed investment boom in China will turn down.

Nobody is thinking about this scenario but it is a real possibility. And with fixed investment now at fifty per cent of GDP (which is unprecedented in any economy) and exports at more than thirty, we’re looking at ratios that have never been reached before on a combined basis. Before readers argue that China can support that level of investment, consider the views of Professor Yu Yongding, who some analysts believe is China’s best macroeconomist. As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald:

Yu, the recently retired director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, did not explicitly say I was barking mad. But his email continued: “When a country has an investment rate over 50 per cent [of] GDP and rising, you say this country is not suffering from overcapacity! … are you serious? ”To judge whether there is overcapacity you cannot just do a head account. With a 1.3 billion population and human greed, China’s needs are unlimited, you can say that China will never suffer from overcapacity!”

The email noted that, on my logic, no developing country could ever suffer from overcapacity until it became rich and that the world should never have suffered a Great Depression in 1929.

Since that salutary critique, Yu has elaborated further on his views.

He believes China is trapped in a cycle where constantly rising growth in investment is constantly increasing China’s supply, but consumption has conspicuously failed to grow fast enough to absorb it. And so China is forced to increase investment in order to provide enough demand to absorb the previous round of increased supply, thus creating ever-widening cycles of oversupply.

In this manner, the investment share of gross domestic product has increased from a quarter of GDP in 2001 to at least half. “There is sort of a chase – demand chasing supply and then more demand is needed to chase more supply,” he says. “This is of course an unsustainable process.”

From 2005 China’s overcapacity problem had been “concealed” by ever-increasing net exports – but that strategy was interrupted by the financial crisis. Then came last year’s globally unprecedented stimulus-investment binge, which might not have been so worrying if it were delivering things that people needed. But the Government’s hand in resource allocation has grown heavier since the crisis without reforms to make officials more responsible for what they spend.

“As a result of the institutional arrangements in China, local governments have an insatiable appetite for grandiose investment projects and sub-optimal allocation of resources,” as Yu previously said, in his Richard Snape lecture for the Productivity Commission in November.

So there are now airports without towns, highways and high-speed railways running parallel, and towns where peasants are building houses for no reason other than to tear them down again because they know that will earn them more compensation when the local government inevitably appropriates their land.

Reducing investment and exports could create a severe recession in China. China has gone too far this time. They appear to be in a box that they and others don’t recognize. The “Black Swan” event this year, as far as China true believers are concerned, could well be a devaluation of the RMB. Were that to happen, the political consequences could be as significant as the economic.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ducati916 said:


> By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist who writes for New Deal 2.0 and Yves Smith,,
> 
> 
> Reducing investment and exports could create a severe recession in China. China has gone too far this time. They appear to be in a box that they and others don’t recognize. The “Black Swan” event this year, as far as China true believers are concerned, could well be a devaluation of the RMB. Were that to happen, the political consequences could be as significant as the economic.




Of course the real question is how the hell are they going to do it? The often thrown around line of about 25% undervalued is a huge amount. How do you go from that level without causing huge problems if you move too fast?

But then if you start to do it slowly you have signaled before hand a HUGE winning trade to all those nasty greedy speculators D) what your moves are and they will cause just as many problems.

They are in trouble on this one. Which of course is what capitalise would always predict but all the Capo's have relied on the Como's to keep their half baked Capitalism system alive.


----------



## Aussiejeff

Trembling Hand said:


> Of course the real question is how the hell are they going to do it? The often thrown around line of about 25% undervalued is a huge amount. How do you go from that level without causing huge problems if you move too fast?
> 
> But then if you start to do it slowly you have signaled before hand a HUGE winning trade to all those nasty greedy speculators D) what your moves are and they will cause just as many problems.
> 
> They are in trouble on this one. Which of course is what capitalise would always predict *but all the Capo's have relied on the Como's to keep their half baked Capitalism system alive*.




Strange bedfellows indeed, TH. 

Dr Strangelove himself could not have written a more intriguing script... which predictably ends with???? 

Nah. 

No worries.

$hit could NEVER happen. 

China is waaaaaay too big to fail. 

Now, where have I heard that altruism before?

Party on,


aj


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> They are in trouble on this one. Which of course is what *capitalise *would always predict but all the Capo's have relied on the Como's to keep their half baked Capitalism system alive.




capitalise = Capitalism - you get my drift!?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Building a city for un-present residents?



> The Kangbashi district began as a public-works project in Ordos, a wealthy coal-mining town in Inner Mongolia. The area is filled with office towers, administrative centers, government buildings, museums, theaters and sports fields””not to mention acre on acre of subdivisions overflowing with middle-class duplexes and bungalows. The only problem: the district was originally designed to house, support and entertain 1 million people, yet hardly anyone lives there.




http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1975397_2094492,00.html








To be consumed by nature?


----------



## Bushman

Uncle Festivus said:


> Building a city for un-present residents?




Reminds me of a recent visit to Malaysia and a tour through some of the new cities created during the last boom. Acre after acre of empty duplex housing amongst the palm oil groves. 

Then again, our very own BER is building unwanted school annexes and halls at 10x the market cost.


----------



## vincent191

Very educated and knowledgable people talk about monetary policies and fiscal policies in China but no one is talking about a lesser known economic policy call MORAL PERSUASION. Essentially all this entails is simply the Government tell the people what to do.

I have observed this personally and seen the results with my own eyes. During the worst of the GFC last year when China's exports were falling and they needed to boost domestic demand and spending to stimulate the economy. The Government just "simply" told the people to go out and SPEND.

The shopping centres and holiday places were PACKED. When I asked the locals, not just one but a few in the different places, how come it is so packed, the reply was "the people are obeying the Government's instructions to go out and spend".

Many Westerners are not familiar with the workings of a Central Planned Economy - Communism. Under a communist regime the general populace have been conditioned to "do as they are told" and the majority generally follows those instructions in a manner that most Westerners call "blindly".

I am not here to past value judgement as to the pros and cons of communism rather I am trying to point out a very effective policy that most Western observers have missed. With 1.3 billion domestic consumers, this gives them a very powerful tool to "spend their way out of trouble" without the Government clocking up a huge big deficit.

Contrast this with the US and Australia's expensive efforts to get their people to spend their way out of trouble.


----------



## drsmith

Whether it's on the government balance sheet or the individual credit card, debt is still debt.


----------



## greebly24

_"40% of the world's population has a great plan to get rich by selling stuff to 14% of the world's population," Napier observed. "That can work for several years, and it has - particularly if 14% of the world's population is prepared to gear like crazy to buy all of this stuff."_

Not sure where I read this, but it's food for thought.


----------



## So_Cynical

greebly24 said:


> _"40% of the world's population has a great plan to get rich by selling stuff to 14% of the world's population," Napier observed. "That can work for several years, and it has - particularly if 14% of the world's population is prepared to gear like crazy to buy all of this stuff."_
> 
> Not sure where I read this, but it's food for thought.




I think it can go on for a long time yet as its not just the Americans buying Chinas exports...its the whole world, so the 14% figure should prob be 21% and then there the massive differences in net worth and income.

So its more like 40% of the world's population (who are mostly very poor and have nothing) getting richer selling stuff to 21% of the world's population (who have a net worth and income prob 20x the average Chinese person)
& credit cards.


----------



## Dowdy

If the China bull ends, commodity prices aren't the only things that will suffer.

Australian property with suffer too. All these big Chinese companies who bought Aussie property as a place to invest their money will have to liquidate their assets which means a mass selling of Aussie property


----------



## Trembling Hand

Dowdy said:


> If the China bull ends, commodity prices aren't the only things that will suffer.
> 
> Australian property with suffer too. *All these big Chinese companies *who bought Aussie property as a place to invest their money will have to liquidate their assets which means a mass selling of Aussie property




What exactly do you mean by this? When has a big Chinese company been interested in Australian property?

Unless it had valuable rocks under it?


----------



## Dowdy

Trembling Hand said:


> What exactly do you mean by this? When has a big Chinese company been interested in Australian property?
> 
> Unless it had valuable rocks under it?





Claims made by various people including real estate agents that Chinese are coming here buying property, paying them in cash and leaving them empty hoping for capital gain.

I highly doubt those Chinese are private individual buyers. 


We do the same - Australian companies buy property overseas as a form of investment.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Dowdy said:


> I highly doubt those Chinese are private individual buyers.



Why? there are more millionaires in China than anywhere.

I don't think a "big Chinese company" would have the slightest interest in a residential property.


----------



## Dowdy

Trembling Hand said:


> Why? there are more millionaires in China than anywhere.




True, but the result would be the same if the China bull ends. It just won't be a mass selling.



> I don't think a "big Chinese company" would have the slightest interest in a residential property.




Why? Aussie companies do the same (only with commercial property) but we're a bit smarter about it, since they actually try to put tenants in them


----------



## So_Cynical

Trembling Hand said:


> Why? there are more millionaires in China than anywhere.
> 
> I don't think a "big Chinese company" would have the slightest interest in a residential property.




The Chinese Govt actually owned (perhaps they still do?) a few of the bigger Chinese restaurants....least that what i read somewhere back in the early 90's


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Bubble, bubble toil and TROUBLE!



> Last year, total fixed-asset investment accounted for more than 90% of China's overall growth; residential and commercial real estate investment comprised nearly a quarter of that. Toss in the not insignificant fact that it was a huge real estate bust in the U.S. that dumped the world into recession in the first place, and many analysts are now beginning to fear the worst. "China's property market," says independent Shanghai economist Andy Xie, "is a _massive_ bubble."



http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1971284,00.html#ixzz0kreNQ2sG

China has become a field of dreams; a build-and-they-will-come economy.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-china-bubble-20100412-s34b.html

http://www.smartcompany.com.au/economy/20100406-is-china-a-classic-bubble-economy-maley.html


----------



## Aussiejeff

From Bloomberg today..  http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB_mY.uI0NfQ&pos=1



> June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks dropped to a two-week low *on concerns that growth in China, the engine of the world’s economic recovery, will slow*.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Investor sentiment worsened after the Conference Board said its China leading economic index rose 0.3 percent in April, less than the 1.7 percent gain reported June 15. *China’s exports face “strong headwinds” in the second half of the year from policy tightening measures and the European debt crisis, Citigroup Inc. said in a report today. *
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “There’s no catalyst for stocks to go up,” said Wei Wei, an analyst at West China Securities Co. in Shanghai. *“I don’t see the possibility of a reversal until the government eases its current tightening measures.”*
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The New York-based Conference Board cited a calculation error for the revision in its Chinese index. The research group’s outlook for the nation’s economy hasn’t been affected by the correction, said William Adams, the group’s economist.
> 
> *“Growth was not likely to accelerate in China, and in fact, a moderation is possible,”* Adams said in a telephone interview. “This correction also supports he same view.”
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...


----------



## drsmith

Some interesting commentary from Lateline business on China's economy (China confused by super profits tax).

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/


----------



## drfuzzy

Uncle Festivus said:


> ....and more inflation.....
> 
> The Reserve Bank thought _it_ had a problem
> 
> *"fast growth in money supply" - *I thought that was a capitalist tradition, looks like the commo's have stolen that as well *
> 
> *
> The chart - support holding - for now?




Interesting chart.  I personally feel the China story is too big and too bullish to pop like the tech bubble did almost a decade ago.  A billion Chinese people are moving towards a better quality of life and urbanizing.  The demand for a better quality of life is too great to see China falter now.


----------



## baby_swallow

Dowdy said:


> Claims made by various people including real estate agents that Chinese are coming here buying property, paying them in cash and leaving them empty hoping for capital gain.
> 
> I highly doubt those Chinese are private individual buyers.
> 
> 
> We do the same - Australian companies buy property overseas as a form of investment.



The Chinese (ie.The Govt) been divesting their US dollars into global companies - mining, food, real estates,  and yes - including residentials  by way of proxies.   They are the worlds largest holder of USA debts. They fear that one day the US dollar will tank.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit some bias, in that I only read the WSJ for information on China, I find it the most comprehensive.

I have never visited mainland China.

It appears to me that it is a complex centrally controlled economy, with ambitious leaders, and a so far compliant population with great differentials in wealth.

As long as the cadres can keep control China will continue to steal assets in the way of patents on machinery, IT and infrastructure, until it becomes the dominant world economy.

Who knows whether the bull has ended. 

Ask the Central Committee, after the next meeting.

gg


----------



## drsmith

Not from the WSJ but still interesting.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10656976


----------



## sinner

drsmith said:


> Not from the WSJ but still interesting.
> 
> http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10656976




There was a foreign correspondent episode on ABC iView (unfortunately no longer online) about the China property bubble. It interviewed Michael Pettis heavily and that Inner Mongolian bubbletown was also visited.

Eery place.

I think the fact that nobody seems to care about lines like this


> The nation's 13.6 trillion yuan of new loans in the past 17 months, bigger than the economies of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong combined, is "unprecedented in 400 years of economic history," said London-based hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, co-founder of Eclectica Asset Management.



shows huge complacency in the market. 13.6 trillion yuan, if anyone was curious, also roughly equals to the amount of USD held by the Chinese (2 trillion) as reserves. The PBoC has painted themselves into a corner on this one it seems, they told the banks to lend and lend they did now they told the banks to stop lending and stop they did except how can you cut 30% of lending that is bigger than your neighbouring countries economies combined without some sort of fiscal impact!

If it pops it will be another one that "nobody could have seen coming" or a "six sigma event" whatever people like to claim when they are ignoring the reality of the situation.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just seems to me like they are making the same mistakes that the rest of the world has made with regards to paper IOU's - overproduction. China could be the next catalyst for GFC II, only the rest of the world will be starting this one from a base far worse than GFC I. Ah well, back to the bunker.....


----------



## sinner

More on Chinese ghost towns:
http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/node/526

(from the perspective of a World Bank transport analyst)



> The landscape is characterized by long, 450-meter blocks, gated communities with limited access points, expansive intersections that may be challenging to cross on foot, and a segregation of uses that may require residents to travel great distances to work, buy rice, and to go out for romantic dinners – and compete with other residents for road-space, since the mega-block urban design requires everyone to funnel into the exact same roads. My gut tells me this is a worrisome pattern -- though, I haven't seen traffic forecasts or density plans, so I cannot say for certain what will come to be.


----------



## Timmy

sinner said:


> More on Chinese ghost towns:
> http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/node/526




I suppose a town is a physical "network effect" in action:


> In economics and business, a network effect (also called network externality) is the effect that one user of a good or service has on the value of that product to other people. When network effect is present, the value of a product or service increases as more people use it.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect




So, given towns such as these are 







> satellite towns far from the urban core
> http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/node/526 (the same report sinner is quoting from)



 it is really not too surprising they are slow to populate.

Also:


> in all likelihood, after the light rail lines are completed, it will not be long before Chenggong bursts into life
> http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/node/526 (the same report sinner is quoting from)


----------



## sinner

Timmy said:


> I suppose a town is a physical "network effect" in action:
> 
> 
> So, given towns such as these are  it is really not too surprising they are slow to populate.
> 
> Also:




Hi Timmy, I agree with the premise of network effect but you can see in the article it states that usually they get Government facilities to move in first which spurs demand but in this case the Government workers would prefer to commute rather than move (anecdotal quote from the article).

Kangbashi is an example of a town where network effect did not materialise even after three years. Their train lines are already completed I believe. Government workers prefer to commute rather than move, there, too.

In any case, I didn't post the article to make a bearish point or anything, just to increase coverage on the topic, especially since I had not heard about Chenggong, I thought others might be interested in the phenomena.


----------



## Timmy

Tks sinner - was an interesting article.  Must admit I don't know much about urban development in China (or enough about China at all) - found this series of articles useful though:

*The Nine Nations of China*
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2009/11/16/the-nine-nations-of-china/



> China often seems like a monolith of 1.3 billion people, but it's not.  It's a mosaic of distinct regions, and understanding those regions is vital to understanding China.  This article presents a framework for how to think about those regions, what they're like, and why they matter.  It's the product of over 20 years of business travel and personal exploration that covered every one of China's 31 provinces, plus Taiwan.  And it's just the tip of the iceberg ”” I hope to expand on this framework and explore it further in various venues, including this blog, in the weeks and months ahead.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Thought we'd slip this one through while everyone is on holidays 



> BEIJING (AP) ”” China increased interest rates Saturday for the second time in little more than two months as the government steps up its fight against rising inflation that could threaten political stability.
> Those worries about inflation in the world's second-biggest economy meant the move by The People's Bank of China had been expected by the end of the year or early next year.
> Effective from Sunday, the benchmark 1-year lending rate will climb 25 basis points to 5.81 percent, while the 1-year deposit rate will go up the same amount to 2.75 percent, the central bank said on its website.




Story



> China's real interest rates are deep in negative territory. The one-year benchmark deposit rate is only 2.75 percent after the latest climb, well below November's inflation of 5.1 percent, highlighting the risk that price expectations may spin out of control.


----------



## Aussiejeff

Uncle Festivus said:


> Thought we'd slip this one through while everyone is on holidays
> 
> 
> 
> Story
> 
> 
> View attachment 40514




LOL.

Just posted in the "other" forum re: China raising IR's when I stumble across this'n. Good one, Unc. 

Yeah, I doubt holding your yuan in a fixed deposit at those minimal rates would too attractive when inflation is popping over 5%! Better for Chinese to invest it all in the twin bubbling brews of stocks or RE?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Even glorious comrades cannot avoid that endearing feature of developed capitalism - gridlock. So now only the rich & corrupt elite will be able to buy a new car?



> BEIJING””Beijing's municipal government Thursday unveiled sweeping measures to curtail the number of cars sold in the city next year, in a bid to ease traffic chaos that could prompt similar moves in other Chinese cities and deepen an expected slowdown for the auto industry.
> 
> Beijing will limit the issuance of new car and microvan license plates in the city to 240,000 in 2011, about one-third of this year's figure, and only registered Beijing residents will be able to obtain one. Cars that don't have Beijing license plates will be barred from entering the main city area during rush hour.
> Yale Zhang, an independent auto analyst, said the measures were more stringent than the market had expected. "Auto makers may have to adjust their production and sales plans next year," he said.




http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704278404576037223377494828.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like China is facing a catch 22 with their little inflation problem. Raise rates and attract even more liquidity with which to fuel the bubbles or continue to let inflation sew the seeds of civil unrest? Whatever, the path forward is contractory for both their economy & the flow on effects for our commodities. The Shibor has just come back from a spurt higher but still remains at a high level.



Hard or soft landing after the end of the $600BILLION stimulis ended in November?



> While the seven-day repo rate has dropped 320 basis points, or 3.20 percentage points, from a three-year high of 6.34 percent in three days, it may rebound before the five-day Lunar New Year holiday that starts Feb. 2, said Zhou Yan, a fixed- income analyst in Shanghai at Bank of Communications Ltd., the nation’s fifth-biggest lender.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...since-lehman-to-curb-prices-china-credit.html


----------



## tothemax6

I don't follow what the Chinese officials game is.
How do they think that: having negative real rates TAMES inflation, raising rates AND pegging their currency to another which is not raising rates will not simply cause more inflation?
The Chinese boom has resulted from the countries economic movement to the right, which can't really go much further. Now they have a working economic system, and those 1.2billion people have had time to take advantage of it (which we call 'the boom'), they are going to face the problem every other economy with interfering governments and central banks face: normal booms and busts.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Yes, they all eventually go down the same path ie keeping the people happy by trying to defer/eliminate the bust part of the cycle by stimulating with US dollars, which themselves have been created from thin air. So most of the China miracle is based on the expansion of the US money supply? 

The Triffin Dilemma in full force?


----------



## Sean K

Anything that happens will surely just be a blip in the scheme of things.

A crash will mean nothing in the bigger picture.

China has decades to run.

Unless they have a civil war then it will be a bigger blip.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

kennas said:


> Anything that happens will surely just be a blip in the scheme of things.
> 
> A crash will mean nothing in the bigger picture.
> 
> China has decades to run.
> 
> Unless they have a civil war then it will be a bigger blip.




I think  that the scale of global indebtedness even just a 'blip' will be disastrous, especially when more and more people are coming around to the fact that China is essentially a state sanctioned Ponzi scheme, rather than the 'free market' moral hazard capitalism that we now have in 'developed' economies?



> Global investors are bracing for the end of China’s relentless economic growth, with 45 percent saying they expect a financial crisis there within five years.
> 
> An additional 40 percent anticipate a Chinese crisis after 2016, according to a quarterly poll of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders or analysts. Only 7 percent are confident China will indefinitely escape turmoil.



Story

Rampant (monetary) inflation leads to higher commodity prices which leads to higher wages - spent on higher food prices....which leads to inflation.....



> Just this week, the manufacturing-heavy province of Guangdong boosted  its minimum wage by between 18 and 26 per cent, the second increase in  less than a year. The city of Beijing also increased its minimum wage by  21 per cent this month.
> 
> While higher salaries for workers will help  spur domestic demand and help rebalance China’s export-driven economy, a  major short-term concern is that increased labour costs will harm  China’s key manufacturing sector and drive production to cheaper regions  such as Southeast Asia.



So the economists would exclaim 'so what, more money to buy things!' But getting an extra $10 a month to take home $200 a month isn't going to lead to a splurge in flat screen TV's, but it has a disastrous effect on the already paper thin profit margins, if they actually make a profit as government subsidies via the banking system continue to prop up dodgy industries.


----------



## sinner

kennas said:


> Anything that happens will surely just be a blip in the scheme of things.
> 
> A crash will mean nothing in the bigger picture.
> 
> China has decades to run.
> 
> Unless they have a civil war then it will be a bigger blip.




Please explain.

How will China kick-start domestic consumption demand, which is the base premise for your "decades" comment. The numbers for China really don't look that amazing unless you are using the same fallacious model which claimed Japan would take economy supremacy in the 80s.

Otherwise, China is only running as far as their exhausted European and American export markets can take them and it will take decades just to kick-start that demand.

More likely at this point is all that supposed "growth" in the form of US and European companies using China as a cheap labour zone will follow a slow down-trend as the next, cheaper country starts taking chunks of their market.


----------



## Toothpic44

kennas said:


> Anything that happens will surely just be a blip in the scheme of things.
> 
> A crash will mean nothing in the bigger picture.
> 
> China has decades to run.
> 
> Unless they have a civil war then it will be a bigger blip.




China doesn't have decades to run. Japan exhibited signs of growth much like this during their "miracle" days, and China seems to be an ever worse situation than they were. Here's an article on it:

https://austocks.wordpress.com/2011/01/28/a-bear-in-china/

I will admit that China definitely cannot be ignored any longer, but all those bulls who are tossing money in China just because they believe China will be the next US are going to be in for a shock.


----------



## So_Cynical

Toothpic44 said:


> China doesn't have decades to run. Japan exhibited signs of growth much like this during their "miracle" days, and China seems to be an ever worse situation than they were. Here's an article on it:
> 
> https://austocks.wordpress.com/2011/01/28/a-bear-in-china/
> 
> I will admit that China definitely cannot be ignored any longer, but all those bulls who are tossing money in China just because they believe China will be the next US are going to be in for a shock.




Interesting that the video in your link was posted on 25 January 2010 so more than 12 months later and the China bubble still rolling along.


----------



## Toothpic44

So_Cynical said:


> Interesting that the video in your link was posted on 25 January 2010 so more than 12 months later and the China bubble still rolling along.




I don't want to start a "China: Bull or Bear" argument, but there is no telling exactly _when _China will crash, if it does happen. It could happen in a week, a year, or most likely a few years; but the arguments on the article still apply today. Oh, and the video, if you need a newer video link, then here you go: 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP6HQbGuWf8

And here is a much deeper article on the subject:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/

There are certainly those, like you, who believe China is here to stay. They definitely are, but they aren't going to charm the world with double-digit growth rates every year. I mean, their population is shrinking with their strict one-child policy. This has to be the biggest smack on the face - how can the Chinese economy continue to grow at rates like today when their population is _decreasing_ at a rate where every two people can reproduce one child. Remember, China is also reliant on cheap labour, and the reason that labour is so cheap is because there are so many Chinese.

Thank you, though, So_Synical, for presenting your opinion in a reasonable fashion. It just happens to be that the argument on China only seems to have two kinds of opinions: the bulls and the bears, and nothing in between. Only time will tell who is on the right side of the debate.


----------



## So_Cynical

Toothpic44 said:


> *There are certainly those, like you, who believe China is here to stay*. They definitely are, but they aren't going to charm the world with double-digit growth rates every year. I mean, their population is shrinking with their strict one-child policy. This has to be the biggest smack on the face - how can the Chinese economy continue to grow at rates like today when their population is _decreasing_ at a rate where every two people can reproduce one child. Remember, China is also reliant on cheap labour, and the reason that labour is so cheap is because there are so many Chinese.
> 
> Thank you, though, So_Synical, for presenting your opinion in a reasonable fashion. It just happens to be that the argument on China only seems to have two kinds of opinions: the bulls and the bears, and nothing in between. Only time will tell who is on the right side of the debate.




Now i never did say that i thought the Chinese bubble was here to stay....ive posted on a few occasions that the China bubble will eventually burst, however i see it more from a political stand point, that the Chinese communist Govt must eventually fall and they will not go willingly like the Russians did....potential for massive political and thus economical upheaval in China is almost 100% certain.

The current China bubble is just a little one and of not much consequence in my opinion...after all China is just the C in BRIC  India will over take China in population growth in a few years time...BRIC demand will continue, and will grow, the resources super cycle has at least a decade to run.


----------



## warakawa

As a Chinese, I can not help but laugh at the amount of crap I read here on this thread, full of opinions and speculations and few facts to back them up.

"potential for massive political upheaval in China is almost 100% certain"?


----------



## So_Cynical

warakawa said:


> As a Chinese, I can not help but laugh at the amount of crap I read here on this thread, full of opinions and speculations and few facts to back them up.
> 
> "potential for massive political upheaval in China is almost 100% certain"?




Ok ill bite 

Are you suggesting that the Chinese communist party will stay in power for ever and ever...continuing political oppression, freedom of speech etc? or allow the formation of other political party's and hand over power after a free and fair election?

Perhaps you think the communists would win a free and fair election?

Please share your unique Chinese insights into Chinese politics under 1 party rule.


----------



## warakawa

So_Cynical said:


> Ok ill bite
> 
> Are you suggesting that the Chinese communist party will stay in power for ever and ever...continuing political oppression, freedom of speech etc? or allow the formation of other political party's and hand over power after a free and fair election?
> 
> Perhaps you think the communists would win a free and fair election?
> 
> Please share your unique Chinese insights into Chinese politics under 1 party rule.




Perhaps you should read more into Chinese and Asian political situation in general before make ridiculous assumptions about a future event. 

Perhaps are you suggesting our Australian style pseudo-democracy will be forever be our political model and never change? 

of course no political/economic model last forever, economic and political direction changes with changes in leadership however, your assumption of "massive political and economical upheaval with almost 100% certainty" is simply without evidence and to from my Chinese perspective, just ridiculous. Don't worry, we (Overseas Chinese people) are so used to your (you white people) self-righteousness and absolute unrealistic emphasis of your value of democracy upon the Chinese civilization.  

Just because a nation have single party rule does not equate to "massive upheaval", perhaps you should study history of Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore? How these Asian nations (except Taiwan which in part of China) were able to change from a dictatorship to liberal democracy without violent revolution. The transition from authoritarian to democracy need not to be a revolution or in a haste.  Perhaps Chinese leadership already have political reform plan in mind? Perhaps you should stop believe in typically Australia and Western propaganda? 

And in the mean time, please preach your "democracy, freedom and other bull****" somewhere else, authoritarian capitalism is here to stay in China and I as a Chinese Australian living in a democracy, with access to freedom of information, fully support the Chinese Communist Party's rule and control of the Chinese nation. They have done a wonderful job.


----------



## So_Cynical

warakawa said:


> Perhaps you should read more into Chinese and Asian political situation in general before make ridiculous assumptions about a future event.




I really don't think its an "out there" assumption to think that the Chinese communist party will not hand over power to any other party...unless its some sort of stage managed hand over like the US managed in South Korea back in the 60's and 70's

The Tiananmen Square massacre showed the depths of depravity that the the Party is prepared to go to when threatened...and i see no reason why they wouldn't go down that road again. 



warakawa said:


> Perhaps are you suggesting our Australian style pseudo-democracy will be forever be our political model and never change?




Cant see it changing ever...realisticly a constitutional amendment would need to be passed by referendum and Aust don't have much of a record of success in that department. 



warakawa said:


> of course no political/economic model last forever, economic and political direction changes with changes in leadership however, your assumption of "massive political and economical upheaval with almost 100% certainty" is simply without evidence and to from my Chinese perspective, just ridiculous.




As demonstrated by your post...your Chinese perspective is seriously tainted by decades of propaganda, censorship and a politicly skewed education...not to mention the ever present reality of wishing to avoid a little trip to a re-education facility etc. 



warakawa said:


> Don't worry, we (Overseas Chinese people) are so used to your (you white people) self-righteousness and absolute unrealistic emphasis of your value of democracy upon the Chinese civilization.




 




warakawa said:


> Just because a nation have single party rule does not equate to "massive upheaval", perhaps you should study history of Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore? How these Asian nations (except Taiwan which in part of China) were able to change from a dictatorship to liberal democracy without violent revolution. The transition from authoritarian to democracy need not to be a revolution or in a haste.  Perhaps Chinese leadership already have political reform plan in mind? Perhaps you should stop believe in typically Australia and Western propaganda?





Taiwan is an independent state and will never be part of a communist China...ever!
South Korea had an American managed transition to a more politicly acceptable (to the US) form of democracy.
Singapore was asked to leave the Malaysian federation...because the Malay's didn't want to be dominated by Chinese...this after the British handed over power.

I cant see any easy out for China...the Army is so aligned to the Party, Business, every part of successful China owes the party...there are to many people with to much to loose, that's why it will be a violent revolution. 




warakawa said:


> And in the mean time, please preach your "democracy, freedom and other bull****" somewhere else, authoritarian capitalism is here to stay in China and I as a Chinese Australian living in a democracy, with access to freedom of information, fully support the Chinese Communist Party's rule and control of the Chinese nation. They have done a wonderful job.




I noticed this hard core, 1 party, communist support from Aussie Chinese during the Olympics...and am still a little bemused by it, perhaps its another sign of Multiculturalism not working that well...perhaps its the pull of home and all you have ever known etc, perhaps its the human need to just belong to something bigger than you, and the devil you know being better than the devil you don't know. :dunno:

Anyway im certain the majority of Uyghur people and the people of Tibet and Taiwan don't share your sentiments.


----------



## warakawa

anyways, we have our differences and opinions. However we all hope that China does not go bear, it's not in Australia's best interest.


----------



## wayneL

warakawa said:


> And in the mean time, please preach your "democracy, freedom and other bull****" somewhere else, authoritarian capitalism is here to stay in China and I as a Chinese Australian living in a democracy, with access to freedom of information, fully support the Chinese Communist Party's rule and control of the Chinese nation. They have done a wonderful job.




I agree. SC should find a forum where the majority are democracy and freedom (and other "BS") loving folk. Perhaps one that allows freedom of speech, perhaps hosted in Australia or some other western democracy.

Maybe something like an Australian Stock Forum?


----------



## tothemax6

warakawa said:


> As a Chinese, I can not help but laugh at the amount of crap I read here on this thread, full of opinions and speculations and few facts to back them up.
> 
> "potential for massive political upheaval in China is almost 100% certain"?



Btw, if you are a Chinese, why are you using a Japanese-sounding name?


warakawa said:


> anyways, we have our differences and opinions. However we all hope that China does not go bear, it's not in Australia's best interest.



I'm pretty sure its going to have a crash mate. It just looks to much like a credit induced construction/housing speculation boom at the moment. They have the negative real interest rates and everything.


----------



## warakawa

tothemax6 said:


> Btw, if you are a Chinese, why are you using a Japanese-sounding name?




There are many Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Africans people in this world that use European sounding names. What's your point? Must I put Ding, Chang, Xiao, Zhang, Wang, Li or Guang in my name to prove my ethnicity to you?


----------



## warakawa

tothemax6 said:


> I'm pretty sure its going to have a crash mate. It just looks to much like a credit induced construction/housing speculation boom at the moment. They have the negative real interest rates and everything.




well let me know when that happens yah, so I can sell all my mining stocks.


----------



## alphaman

Chinese labour cost is rising, but there are still cheap labour in other countries. A China crash will certainly have a short term effect on XJO, but I doubt demand for Australian dirt will crash.


----------



## tothemax6

warakawa said:


> There are many Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Africans people in this world that use European sounding names. What's your point? Must I put Ding, Chang, Xiao, Zhang, Wang, Li or Guang in my name to prove my ethnicity to you?



No it was more a question stemming from the anti-japanese sentiment which my chinese mates have. 


warakawa said:


> well let me know when that happens yah, so I can sell all my mining stocks.



I have started a thread about this very thing (in general investing section) .


alphaman said:


> Chinese labour cost is rising, but there are still cheap labour in other countries. A China crash will certainly have a short term effect on XJO, but I doubt demand for Australian dirt will crash.



It will *smash *demand for australian dirt.


----------



## GumbyLearner

warakawa said:


> well let me know when that happens yah, so I can sell all my mining stocks.




I disagree with your analysis warakawa. YOU should let me know when the average Chinese investor is short gold/silver, difficult to extract metals eg. antimony,tungsten, graphite, moly, rhenium and of course rare earths etc... So then I'll dump them . Chinese real estate is completely irrelevant to my investment portfolio plan for the next 10 years. Just my opinion. This is not financial advice. 

But at present I'm long Agriculture especially wheat. There were problems in the winter of 2009 and now many parts of China that grow wheat haven't had a drop of rain since September 2010. Bring on the nine mile snipers shooting into the clouds in the hope that it may change the situation! Not to mention all the Ag tariff barriers that operate worldwide these days.

DYOR


----------



## tothemax6

GumbyLearner said:


> I disagree with your analysis warakawa. YOU should let me know when the average Chinese investor is short gold/silver, difficult to extract metals eg. antimony,tungsten, graphite, moly, rhenium and of course rare earths etc... So then I'll dump them . Chinese real estate is completely irrelevant to my investment portfolio plan for the next 10 years. Just my opinion. This is not financial advice.



The issue is that the construction boom accompanying the real estate bubble draws in huge amounts of resources. We are supplying much of these resources.

Btw how are you long wheat? CFD?


----------



## GumbyLearner

tothemax6 said:


> The issue is that the construction boom accompanying the real estate bubble draws in huge amounts of resources. We are supplying much of these resources.
> 
> Btw how are you long wheat? CFD?




RJA & a whole bunch of beings that need to eat, including us humans.

Here's a one year chart to CLICK ON 

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


----------



## Uncle Festivus

China's ghost cities, again, more confirmation of the unsustainable 'made to order' centrally dictated command economy - what a bust it will be................and we will follow?

http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601007/n/China-s-Ghost-Cities

*REPORTER: Is China experiencing a property bubble? *

GILLEM TULLOCH, FORENSIC ASIA: Absolutely. A property bubble like which I don't think we've ever seen. 

*REPORTER: Bigger than the one in the United States? *

GILLEM TULLOCH: Yes, I think *it will make the United States pale in comparison*. It is said that there are 64 million empty apartments in China. 

*REPORTER: 64 million?*

GILLEM TULLOCH: 64 million.


----------



## CamKawa

Uncle Festivus said:


> China's ghost cities, again, more confirmation of the unsustainable 'made to order' centrally dictated command economy - what a bust it will be................and we will follow?
> 
> http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601007/n/China-s-Ghost-Cities
> 
> *REPORTER: Is China experiencing a property bubble? *
> 
> GILLEM TULLOCH, FORENSIC ASIA: Absolutely. A property bubble like which I don't think we've ever seen.
> 
> *REPORTER: Bigger than the one in the United States? *
> 
> GILLEM TULLOCH: Yes, I think *it will make the United States pale in comparison*. It is said that there are 64 million empty apartments in China.
> 
> *REPORTER: 64 million?*
> 
> GILLEM TULLOCH: 64 million.



 Interesting. Thanks for the post.


----------



## tothemax6

Yes, its going to end *very* badly. The IMF are complete quacks with their '8% growth for the next 20 years' outlook on China. Just shows you how clueless these people are.

For this reason I have stayed away from anything China is importing a lot of, i.e. companies with exposure to coal, iron ore etc. However, this is merely to reduce the size of the loses that will ensue if I do not spot the burst in time. Pretty much any Aussie stock, and many international stocks, will be hammered when the China 'growth' story is revealed for what it is: a crack up boom fueled by credit expansion and government stimulus. 
Good luck to them with the latest 5 year plan .


----------



## isplicer

^ WHen do you think our mining stocks such as RIO and BHP will start getting affected, if the above is true?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

isplicer said:


> ^ WHen do you think our mining stocks such as RIO and BHP will start getting affected, if the above is true?




They should be benefiting big time from the terms of trade but alas for the exchange rate killing that golden chook? It's not showing up in record highs for their share prices ie flatlining?

As long as everyone understands that what is holding the house of cards up, both in China & the rest of the world, is money printing (inflation) which as we can see leads to product/commodity inflation. Or no inflation if you ask Ben Bernanke, with the proviso that if there is inflation it will only be temporary???? Just like oil at $110 won't be a problem for 'the global recovery'

As long as they keep printing, there is going to be a 'recovery' until........there isn't?







> Notice China has been printing Renminbi at a faster pace this decade than the dollar or euro.When researching for this project, this was quite a shock. While China’s currency is not a worldreserve currency as the U.S. dollar is, the Chinese are following the same path the U.S. has. *This** piece of data reinforces the idea that **at least part of China’s economy is in a fiat money-**induced bubble*, which is a topic for another article



http://www.scribd.com/doc/52376061/PDF-Charting-the-Economy


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> China's ghost cities, again, more confirmation of the unsustainable 'made to order' centrally dictated command economy - what a bust it will be................and we will follow?
> 
> http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601007/n/China-s-Ghost-Cities
> 
> *REPORTER: Is China experiencing a property bubble? *
> 
> GILLEM TULLOCH, FORENSIC ASIA: Absolutely. A property bubble like which I don't think we've ever seen.
> 
> *REPORTER: Bigger than the one in the United States? *
> 
> GILLEM TULLOCH: Yes, I think *it will make the United States pale in comparison*. It is said that there are 64 million empty apartments in China.
> 
> *REPORTER: 64 million?*
> 
> GILLEM TULLOCH: 64 million.




Agree them's big no's uncle... but it's only one empty appartment per 20 of population.

I understand it was over 65 million back in March 2010 based on electricity readings. 

Do you have any idea what the actual vacancy rate is?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Whiskers said:


> Agree them's big no's uncle... but it's only one empty appartment per 20 of population.
> 
> I understand it was over 65 million back in March 2010 based on electricity readings.
> 
> Do you have any idea what the actual vacancy rate is?




Nope. A big assumption based on meter readings as you say. But if correct and we are now 12 months on, then several million more have been added again.

Now as the number of people able to afford (urbanised) such dwellings is approx 45% of the population, and you then allow for a husband, wife & 1 child as occupants of each unit then the vacancy rate is much worse. That is still assuming that only a section of that urbanised population can then still afford the prices asked, which I don't believe they can hence the oversupply and the Ghost Cities.

Do what I do these days for just about any news that comes out, especially from China - double the bad news & half the good news, and you just about get the _right_ news?


----------



## tothemax6

Uncle Festivus said:


> Nope. A big assumption based on meter readings as you say. But if correct and we are now 12 months on, then several million more have been added again.
> 
> Now as the number of people able to afford (urbanised) such dwellings is approx 45% of the population, and you then allow for a husband, wife & 1 child as occupants of each unit then the vacancy rate is much worse. That is still assuming that only a section of that urbanised population can then still afford the prices asked, which I don't believe they can hence the oversupply and the Ghost Cities.
> 
> Do what I do these days for just about any news that comes out, especially from China - double the bad news & half the good news, and you just about get the _right_ news?



The amazing thing is that the most recent news I heard is that they are pushing for even more construction. People genuinely think that pouring steel and concrete into buildings that no one needs means China is experiencing 'economic growth'. So few people, its seems today, know what the hell they are talking about.

Unclefestivus, what do you think will indicate the imminent crash? I am at a loss as to what indicators I should be looking for. I have some ideas such as watching for a reduction in iron ore imports. This could indicate that the chinese steel manufacturers are receiving less orders, which would in turn indicate that construction is slowing. However, the lag here is probably huge. On the other hand, I cannot for the life of me find good data anywhere, on stuff like import/export rates etc. And I doubt there is a source of data for 'chinese building starts'.
What are your thoughts on this?


----------



## nioka

tothemax6 said:


> Unclefestivus, what do you think will indicate the imminent crash? I am at a loss as to what indicators I should be looking for.




The indicator to look for is the date this topic was commenced. Now more than three yeas on and the situation hasn't changed. Those worried about the end of the Bul run and sitting back have missed out on the best investment opportunities that I have ever seen.


----------



## So_Cynical

nioka said:


> The indicator to look for is the date this topic was commenced. Now more than three yeas on and the situation hasn't changed. Those worried about the end of the Bul run and sitting back have missed out on the best investment opportunities that I have ever seen.




And the next big opportunity will be the bottom of the china bull collapse.   i just hope im sitting on a beach in Thailand by the time that happens.


----------



## tothemax6

nioka said:


> The indicator to look for is the date this topic was commenced. Now more than three yeas on and the situation hasn't changed. Those worried about the end of the Bul run and sitting back have missed out on the best investment opportunities that I have ever seen.



Personally, I have not been sitting back, since I agree with you - it could be another 3 years before the crash happens, for all I know. However, as anyone who invested in US property during the 2003-2008 'bull run', in 2007, will know - sometimes the bull is a mirage. The economics are quite clear - China _will_ take a substantial economic hit at some point in the near future. They are in a credit expansion fueled speculative construction boom, with the negative real rates and all, and it will crash.

The issue is _when_. I very much do not want to be sheepishly sat with aussie stock holdings when it occurs.


----------



## explod

tothemax6 said:


> Personally, I have not been sitting back, since I agree with you - it could be another 3 years before the crash happens, for all I know. However, as anyone who invested in US property during the 2003-2008 'bull run', in 2007, will know - sometimes the bull is a mirage. The economics are quite clear - China _will_ take a substantial economic hit at some point in the near future. They are in a credit expansion fueled speculative construction boom, with the negative real rates and all, and it will crash.
> 
> The issue is _when_. I very much do not want to be sheepishly sat with aussie stock holdings when it occurs.




Would you include gold and silver producers in that mix to x6 ?


----------



## tothemax6

explod said:


> Would you include gold and silver producers in that mix to x6 ?



Yes I would not want to hold those either, all hard commodities and resource stocks will get whacked during a china crash, along with all aus equities. Silver more so than gold, due to the higher industrial demand component in its price. The gold price was higher prior to the 2008 crash than it was after the crash, for instance. My current thoughts would be to be in government bonds prior to the crash. My assumption would be that two things would happen after this - all governments involved will start fiscal and monetary loosening (throwing credit at random stuff, aka 'stimulus', and printing money), including Australia (although I think Australia will have a center-right government at this point, so the fiscal aspect will be less severe). I would then probably buy gold.

I would then wait until the crash had finished, and follow Rothschild's famous advice.


----------



## explod

tothemax6 said:


> Yes I would not want to hold those either, all hard commodities and resource stocks will get whacked during a china crash, along with all aus equities. Silver more so than gold, due to the higher industrial demand component in its price. The gold price was higher prior to the 2008 crash than it was after the crash, for instance. My current thoughts would be to be in government bonds prior to the crash. My assumption would be that two things would happen after this - all governments involved will start fiscal and monetary loosening (throwing credit at random stuff, aka 'stimulus', and printing money), including Australia (although I think Australia will have a center-right government at this point, so the fiscal aspect will be less severe). I would then probably buy gold.
> 
> I would then wait until the crash had finished, and follow Rothschild's famous advice.




Good points, 

however:-

In the world crash from about 1927 all bonds also went under in toto.  This idea of a continued government guarantee holding all up is fraught with peril in my view.

Yes gold dropped but as you say not a lot.

Gold is rising *because *of q/e, ie. money dilution.

Silver and gold this time is being hoarded to protect against money devalution so has moved from being a commodity to that of a form of currency or as some describe a store to maintain wealth/equity.

But agree that for a time all stocks will be hammerrred in the change of sentiment.

Interesting connundrums here.

And yes, buy in absolute gloom.


----------



## tothemax6

explod said:


> Gold is rising *because *of q/e, ie. money dilution.



Yes this is true, however during a crash banks contract their credit as fast as they can. Since most 'money' exists as bank credit extended against money, crashes have a highly deflationary effect. Indeed, prior to central banks, the deflationary effect tended to be very severe, as many banks would suffer runs and go bankrupt - wiping out money people thought they had.
This deflationary effect still exists today, the difference being we now have characters like Bernanke who respond to this by cranking up the printing presses, which quickly puts prices back to where they were - and then some. Hence, the effect is much shorter lived.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nioka said:


> The indicator to look for is the date this topic was  commenced. Now more than three yeas on and the situation hasn't  changed. Those worried about the end of the Bul run and sitting back  have missed out on the best investment opportunities that I have ever  seen.




Quite an assumption there? And the situation _has_ changed dramatically because China is now 'drawing down' it's $US reserves to pay for it's GDP growth rate, and has recently posted a trade deficit for February, and a flatline for March!

Thinking outside the square, here is the simple scenario - 

The world currency is $USD's
China has lot's of them, being devalued daily by QE
China is exchanging them for hard goods like commodities
China has it's own QE program, running about 20% money supply growth per annum, manifesting itself as inflation in everything else ie soft & hard commods
The US is technically insolvent, it cannot pay it's debts without printing money
When the world accepts this fact the game will stop
China will have a bunch of worthless IOU's
Australia will have even less as our industries will have been hollowed out by the exchange rate (due to so called commodities boom)
Aussie banks will have a run, guarantee or not (due to their overexposure to residential real estate)
Cash in hand (or under bed) will be king
Gold will be the Emperor 


And, food commodities did do a 'woody' so I did not miss out, among others 
From my first post...........3 years ago. 



Uncle Festivus said:


> Food commodities the next/current global bull market perhaps?




Here's another tip - short the $AU/$US at these levels and above - on a  relative basis the $AU has more to lose in a global bust.



tothemax6 said:


> The amazing thing is that the most recent news I heard is that they are pushing for even more construction. People genuinely think that pouring steel and concrete into buildings that no one needs means China is experiencing 'economic growth'. So few people, its seems today, know what the hell they are talking about.
> 
> Unclefestivus, what do you think will indicate the imminent crash? I am at a loss as to what indicators I should be looking for. I have some ideas such as watching for a reduction in iron ore imports. This could indicate that the chinese steel manufacturers are receiving less orders, which would in turn indicate that construction is slowing. However, the lag here is probably huge. On the other hand, I cannot for the life of me find good data anywhere, on stuff like import/export rates etc. And I doubt there is a source of data for 'chinese building starts'.
> What are your thoughts on this?




Have a look at this site - one of the most comrehensive free sites for global data - 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?symbol=CNY


----------



## nioka

Uncle,
        The only hope you have in being right in the short term is if the broken clock syndrome comes to your aid. If you keep on with those arguments one of these days you will certainly be right. The only chance of a broken china bull in the next three years will only be if there is rebellion against the current regime. I think they are working hard to raise the general standard of living to prevent that happening and that is why the bull run will continue.

  The big difference in the Chinese economy and that of the USA is that they measure their rate of growth in material personal achievement. The USA measures theirs in monetary values that are manipulated within the financial world for the advantage of a few greedy individuals. One builds a house of bricks, the other a house of cards. (we just dig b#*!*y big holes in the ground and sell the farm.)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

nioka said:


> Uncle,
> The only hope you have in being right in the short term is if the broken clock syndrome comes to your aid.




I don't really care about the timing of something that is based on discretionary money printing to continue - you only have to look at the Dow chart, which was in danger of rolling over at the time, to see when QE2 was announced and the commensurate 2500 point lift. That's what $600B buys you in the stock market. It did very little else in the real economy but who cares - the money went to all the right people???

So I'll continue to post stuff here just for my own entertainment if nothing else 

From Graham Summers - 



> China has begun stepping in to buy up European sovereign bonds because allowing a default in Europe will trigger a global systemic collapse that will destroy China’s economy.
> 
> The EU accounts for roughly $400 billion of China’s exports, making it China’s single largest export market. So if Europe collapses, China’s economy takes a BIG hit. Remember, China is a centrally controlled economy, NOT a dynamic open market economy.
> 
> Put another way, the entire China “economic miracle” is based on the current system continuing to operate in some form (China can continue to export, rip off intellectual property that is developed elsewhere, throw its weight around, etc).
> 
> But… if Europe collapses:
> 
> 1)   China loses its largest export market (Chinese economy breaks down)
> 2)   China unemployment skyrockets along with civil unrest
> 3)   The US Dollar rallies evaporating profit margins at Chinese export companies (Yuan is pegged to the US Dollar and so will strengthen) which results in even more unemployment
> 4)   China’s $700 billion or so in Euro-based assets implodes
> 
> With inflation erupting in the People’s Republic and civil unrest growing, China NEEDS to keep its economy on track by whatever means possible, even if it means throwing money away to prop up bankrupt Europe.
> 
> Remember, China’s unemployment numbers are based only on surveys in urban areas; they completely ignore the hundreds of millions of migrant workers who come to the cities to find work. I’ve seen some estimates of China’s true unemployment rate that are north of 20%.
> 
> That’s a heck of a big problem for China’s totalitarian government to manage. This is why China is stepping in to prop up the European bond market. However, even this intervention will prove to be only a temporary support.
> 
> Indeed, it’s clear at this point that Europe will be breaking up within the next 12 months. While Greece could be temporarily papered over by the ECB, there is NO WAY it can handle Spain or Italy.
> 
> In plain terms, the European debt crisis is not over by a long shot. And the very issues occurring in Europe today (debt defaults, civil unrest, etc) will be coming to the US’s shores in short order as the debt contagion spreads.



And the usual under-reporting of any bad data that will come back to haunt them - China had their own $600B stimulis.



> The local government debt problem was exacerbated by the 4-trillion-yuan ($618-billion) stimulus package introduced to cope with the effects of the global financial crisis. Of the package, the central government provided 1.2 trillion yuan, while the rest came from local governments. To do this, credit policies were loosened, creating an opportunity for local governments to get loans on an unprecedented scale. Local financing platforms increased from only 2,000 in 2008 to around 10,000, with local government debt increasing dramatically over the same period.
> In the first half of 2008, the total amount of local government debt was just 1.7 trillion yuan. At the end of 2010, the figure was up to 10.7 trillion yuan, which was equivalent to 27 percent of China's GDP in 2010, according to the National Audit Office.
> The 10.7 trillion yuan is not a small number, and 80 percent of it comes from bank loans. More than half of these debts have to be paid off between 2011 and 2013. Indeed local governments will have to race against time, as about 25 percent of their loans have to be paid off before the end of this year, and 17 percent next year.





> Professor Victor Shih from Northwestern University in the US. He's  widely quoted as estimating local government debt is almost twice the  official figure -- that's 2.6 trillion dollars or more than 40 per cent  of GDP.





> By the end of last year, according to the People's Bank of China, these  county and municipal district-owned companies had accumulated debt of up  to 14.4 trillion yuan, ($2.1 trillion) which is equivalent to 30 per  cent of China's total outstanding loans or 35 per cent of China's GDP.




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/river-of-debt-may-burst-its-banks-20110613-1g0cq.html#ixzz1SgJe9RaV
​


----------



## Aussiejeff

Last I saw, the antique China bull had a large crack forming.

Intrinsic value has slipped a bit....not sure if any attempt to repair would be worthwhile?

LOL


----------



## Uncle Festivus

> China's government isn't likely to ride to the rescue of the debt-hobbled Italian government, analysts said, and buyer interest in an Italian bond auction was decidedly lackluster after news of meetings between Chinese sovereign-wealth officials and Italian leaders had fueled a short-lived rally in world markets Monday.




So that's a 'pass' on that 'bailing out the UE' thingy then?



> International financial markets are notoriously twitchy when it comes to speculation over how China may invest its vast foreign-exchange reserves.




Maybe they can use it to pay for the $2TRILLION of local government debt.......bailing out their own indebtedness?



> HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s real-estate market may face an escalating credit crisis, with industry data for August providing clues that big developers are running short of cash, according to Credit Suisse analysts.
> The unfolding situation heralds a perfect storm for China’s home-building industry, and China’s deteriorating credit backdrop should be viewed by investors with alarm, the Credit Suisse analysts said.




The first cracks in the Communist Ponzi facade.........

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904353504576568241578833756.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-developers-short-of-cash-analyst-2011-09-14


----------



## Knobby22

Uncle Festivus said:


> The first cracks in the Communist Ponzi facade.........
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904353504576568241578833756.html
> 
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-developers-short-of-cash-analyst-2011-09-14




Both very weak examples if they are in fact cracks.

1. Why should they "rescue" any EU country to their own detriment.
2. China is trying to slow their economy by limiting credit to stop a giant bubble forming.

Would like to see some stronger evidence that something is wrong. It is a centralised economy where the government pulls all the levers. My opinion is that they could quite a lot longer before they stuff up. At present they are making the USA and EU appear incompetent.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Well you have to believe the official figures and take them at face value to believe all is good? They may not be the first cracks either; there have been an accumulation of negatives for a while now, just needs a final (external?) catalyst? I just don't believe China is as strong or invincible as everyone makes out they are. After all, it's generally the same permabulls that said all was ok with the world economy 3 years ago who also see no end to the China bull?? And we have seen how wrong they have been.

The bottom line is China has just as much hidden debt as the rest and would dearly love to exchange their USD's for any other hard asset? It just happens to be directed to building things with our commodities. 

They are under the same cost pressures as anyone else it's just that it's hidden from view ie their enterprises profit margins are low to negative ie the state subsides them in order to keep people employed. Eventually the human tide will be too much for even them to hold back.


----------



## notting

One of the great ignorance's and dare I say it arrogance's of Westerners is that they know a bit about their own history but very little about Asian, especially Chinese History.
People have no idea of how far ahead China plans and how they see everything as war and destruction of everyone else.  

You need to understand how China conquered Mongolia which was at the time the most powerful nation in it's region and the greatest Kingdom that has ever existed on earth in terms of the vast space they occupied and power they wielded in Asia.

Know about the Chinese wall? That was to keep the Mongolia out as much as possible.
The Mongolians used to mock it saying a Wall is only as powerful as the men guarding it.

Basically China overcame Mongolia by trading with it, corrupting people and overthrowing it from the inside.  
They made them dependent on China for their continued wealth.

Sound familiar?

Don't you think it's a bit odd that every major city in the world has a China town in the middle of it?  Where's the India town, French town, Mongol town etc?

We have no idea.

I think the Americans understand.  
I reckon that's why Cheney used to say don't worry about the debt.  He new that China gives no real value to it's own currency. The communist Chinese just do what ever it takes to become more powerful and influential in the world.
Did you see how many contracts they dishonored during GFC part 1. They just blatantly stopped honoring them.  "What are you going to do about it?"  Was the basic stance.  "It's a peace of paper. You got nothing!"

People have no idea!  Notice how Murdoch won the contract over the ABC in China.  He's one they have corrupted.  That's why most of the news doesn't tell you about the real China story!  There is a million things I could say, examples etc but I can't be bothered.


----------



## tothemax6

So I'm raising this thread back up to the top of the heap because I don't think people are giving this enough consideration.

This is going to be *big*. 

For those who aren't familiar with the situation, I'm sure you've heard that China is the biggest buyer of our commodities (coal, iron ore etc). I'm sure that you've also heard that there is massive investment in mining in Australia, to such a skewed extent that people talk of a 'two speed economy' - referring to the contraction that has to occur in the non-mining sector as the labour/capital move into mining. 

The issue resides in the origin of this massive demand for industrial commodities. China is engaged in a massive construction boom that is completely unhinged from demand. Whilst the quota systems of the Mao era are long gone, the Chinese government still implements some basic macro-economic quota. One of those plans is a requirement for 8% growth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-Y...lfth_Five-Year_Guideline.2C_2011.E2.80.932015). Faced with this demand, the response of local governments in China is to build, and build and build. All construction (fixed asset investment) enters GDP figures. A search 'china empty city' on youtube will show the results of this. As a result banks have been pressured to heavily extend loans into these projects. Add to this the constant state of negative real interest rates, and this smacks of a credit-fueled boom in the construction sector. It is not a question of when this will crash, it is a matter of when.

And what are the inputs to such a boom? Copper, coal, iron ore.

Hence the consequences of a crash in China will be that the massive overallocation of resources into mining will come unstuck in Australia, and an unavoidable and sharp recession will ensue. The AUD will plummet, the ASX will plummet, housing prices will be hit hard.

So the question is, what is the defensive move? Going to cash by itself is not defensive - cash is AUD. Gov. bonds are also AUD. One could pick a foreign currency, but which one? Would yen be safe? The swiss franc is no longer any use. So far I'm thinking gold, since it will go down less than AUD.
Ideas...


----------



## tothemax6

Yeah, I guess a crash in China wouldn't affect Australian investors at all . 
Whatever.


----------



## drsmith

tothemax6 said:


> A search 'china empty city' on youtube will show the results of this.



I was dissapointed when this one changed to commentary about half way through.


----------



## drsmith

tothemax6 said:


> Yeah, I guess a crash in China wouldn't affect Australian investors at all .
> Whatever.



I posteda link to this in another thread, but it's also of obvious revelance here,



> China's headline debt to GDP ratio of 17 per cent (around $1 trillion) is misleading. If local governments, its state controlled banks, state owned enterprise, and other government supported debt are included, then debt levels increase to 60 per cent ($3.5 trillion), compared to America's 93 per cent of GDP. Some commentators argue that China's real level of debt is far higher in reality, well above 100 per cent.




Interesting question.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21965&p=660573&viewfull=1#post660573


----------



## tothemax6

Ideas on where to put ones money then...


----------



## Tysonboss1

tothemax6 said:


> Ideas on where to put ones money then...




I range off quality income producing assets, ie. Property, good businesses etc. ( offcourse all purchased at good prices)


----------



## drsmith

tothemax6 said:


> Ideas on where to put ones money then...



I'm still trying to find the artist that sings the song in the first half of that video clip.

Ignoring that it's religious, it's not a bad piece of music.


----------



## tothemax6

Tysonboss1 said:


> I range off quality income producing assets, ie. Property, good businesses etc. ( offcourse all purchased at good prices)



This would be crazy. Holding Australian real estate (esp say, Sydney) and stocks leading up to the China crash would cause obliteration of wealth (or if one is talking 'long term', a very heavy opportunity loss). The 'good prices' will come after the crash, not before (by definition).

So far I'm thinking something along the lines of USD, JPY, gold. I can't see anything else rallying during the China crash.
Buying stocks would be for afterwards.


----------



## GRYPHON80

drsmith said:


> I'm still trying to find the artist that sings the song in the first half of that video clip.
> 
> Ignoring that it's religious, it's not a bad piece of music.




Lianna Klassen 'I WILL NOT BE SILENT'

Not an easy song to find that's for sure. After the first time I watched the clip it bugged me so much I persisted for a couple of hours trying to find it.


----------



## MR.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nticipating-2003-low-as-credit-goes-bust.html

What's that song "China will not go silent"!



> The MSCI China Financials Index sank 24 percent this month, falling more than benchmark bank gauges for Europe, the U.S., Japan and emerging markets. Valuations in China dropped below levels reached during the global financial crisis for the first time last week, even after Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. (3988) said first-half profits hit a record and analysts raised forecasts for next year.






> China has led the recovery from the worst recession since the 1940s, contributing more than 30 percent to global growth last year, after the central government ordered state-owned banks to increase lending and encouraged local governments to boost spending on infrastructure and housing.






> Evidence is building that Chinese property developers and local government financing vehicles, used to get around laws prohibiting direct borrowing, are struggling to repay their obligations as the economy slows. About 85 percent of the government financing vehicles in China’s Liaoning province, on the border with North Korea, had insufficient income last year to cover debt-servicing payments, according to a July speech by the provincial auditor.


----------



## MR.

tothemax6 said:


> So far I'm thinking something along the lines of USD, JPY, gold. I can't see anything else rallying during the China crash.
> Buying stocks would be for afterwards.




IMO holding the 1) Yen with no interest or 2) USD with no interest would be similar to shorting stocks provided you then convert back the AUD. Hard holding currency with no interest though! Buying stocks afterwards as you say could be the go. Looking for the Yen back at 80.


----------



## drsmith

GRYPHON80 said:


> Lianna Klassen 'I WILL NOT BE SILENT'



Thanks.


----------



## tothemax6

MR. said:


> IMO holding the 1) Yen with no interest or 2) USD with no interest would be similar to shorting stocks provided you then convert back the AUD. Hard holding currency with no interest though! Buying stocks afterwards as you say could be the go. Looking for the Yen back at 80.



Well really any interest on AUDs is eaten by inflation after tax, and the yen has no inflation. 
Problem is: buying yen or USD invokes being gouged by a bank or <shudder> travelex and their horrendous gouge-spreads. I could just take a position on my forex account, but its not the same.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Some recent statistic regarding GDP and analyst opinions of further decline.



> Published: Monday, 16 Jan 2012 | 11:09 PM ET
> 
> China's economy grew at its weakest pace in 2-1/2 years in the latest quarter and it appeared headed for an even sharper slowdown in the coming months as export demand fades and the housing market falters.




http://www.cnbc.com/id/46017091


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Officially, economists have declared that China has accomplished a 'soft landing' and may in fact have to relax restrictions now that inflation has been 'tamed' (economist speak for 'we now have deflation'), conveniently forgetting that property has busted, exports have gone off a cliff and the price of oil is essentially causing a recession......

Economists - just an aberration due to Chinese New Year 

Australia recorded a trade deficit in January, its first in 11 months, as weaker shipments of iron ore and coal contributed to the biggest drop in total exports in almost three years.

Imports outpaced exports by A$673 million ($715 million), from a revised A$1.33 billion surplus in December, the Bureau of Statistics said in a report in Sydney today. It was the biggest shortfall since March 2010. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists was for a surplus of A$1.5 billion. 

The data add to pressure on Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens to end a two-month pause in interest-rate cuts after the economy slowed last quarter and payrolls fell in February. 

Today’s report showed Australia’s two-way trade weakened in January with each of the nation’s top four trading partners -- China, Japan, the U.S. and South Korea. Exports to Japan sank 16.5 percent, according to the report. 
Total coal exports in January declined 5.6 percent and iron ore was down 23 percent, it showed. 

Business profits unexpectedly dropped in the three months through December by the most in two-and-a-half years as earnings weakened at mining and financial companies. Gross operating profits fell 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter to A$66.3 billion from the previous three months, when they rose a revised 4.7 percent, a government report showed March 5. 
Yesterday, a Bureau of Statistics report showed Australian employers cut payrolls by 15,400 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose for the first time since August, to 5.2 percent.


----------



## notting

Typical how the serial liars being the Chinese authorities have suddenly revealed a massive sudden trade deficit as soon as the US slapped a few new tariffs on Chinese exports artificially supported by Chinese government that are intended to harm international industries outside of China!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It's always been a matter of timing?

But the more time I spend in China, the more convinced I am that its  current economic system is unsustainable. Yes, economists who specialize  in China can give you all sorts of reasons why the country is  supposedly different, and thus the regular rules of economics don’t  necessarily apply. But one simple thing I always say about economics is  that you can’t escape math. *If the numbers don’t add up, it doesn’t  matter much how big your economy might be or how fast it is growing or  how heavy a role the state might play. And China has lots of numbers  that just don’t add up.*

Story *here*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Uh Oh - from an opinion to fact?


(Reuters) - China's manufacturing sector activity shrank in March for a fifth successive month, with the *overall rate of contraction accelerating* and new orders sinking to a four-month low, the HSBC flash purchasing managers index showed on Thursday.

 The PMI, the earliest indicator of China's industrial activity, fell back from February's four month high, slipping to 48.1, within a whisker of the level that economists at HSBC consider a crucial level dividing decline from growth.

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Chinese factory activity is *slowing sharply*,  dragging on employment amid a deepening slowdown in global demand and  aggravated by a *stall in domestic consumption*, according to March survey  data showing new orders at a four-month low. 
........

The deterioration in orders matched a *surprise slump in industrial  production growth*, adding to the darkening outlook that will play a role  in the decision-making of factory managers.


----------



## blue0810

Just in case  a couple of Short ETFs   NYSE:  YXI,   FXP .


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yes, economists who specialize in China can give you all sorts of reasons why the country is supposedly different



Economists are blithering retards when it comes to assessing China.  They have no freaking idea what they are *really* dealing with or talking about!!
They keep spinning this stupid line that China has lifted 1 or 200 million people out of poverty and how fantastic that is.  It's such crap. There is 1.6 billion!! Using the majority to lift up a minority to indulge a few dictators through intimidation and force is never going be sustainable in an economically successful way!!  
There is no mutual socially ordered fabric holding the thing together. 
It is all forced and fake just like all their products that fall apart!
Notice how they have suddenly thrown open their doors to international investment,!? They'd love to screw with the free world now - as they tank!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just one more, then I'll let the data do the talking 
At least they'll all have a car to live in?




Source: Apparently JPMorgan??


----------



## blue0810

Fly Bull Fly Up, up to the sky.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46822413


----------



## notting

"Yes we will let you do some business in China.
Now you have to learn to lie, forge, fake and be totally dishonest.
If you can do that you can have our business Mr.American.
If you can't do that then you resign and we get another company to do our auditing.
If you agree to cheat, lie and forge which is the only way you will get our business just remember Stern Hu. At some point we may decide to imprison you for 10 years if you do something that annoys the Chinese Communist party like not give us enough confidential information about a Western Company.  We imprison you because you cheating liar."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46851977

Mean while Qantas pays 200 million to China Air on the hope that they will get some more business over there along with about 10 other international air lines and the *share holders think it mazing*!!
Just like Telstra and Fosters who paid billions for the privilege to lose billions over to China.
It's China, it's huge the potential!!


----------



## notting

Be careful about what you read into Chinas *official* numbers - 
On the same day Chinas "offical" PMI number indicated manufacturing expansion, jumped to 53.1 in March, the highest since April 2011, compared with 51 in February and 50.5 in Jan.
*HSBC issued* their own data which *showed a different picture* of Chinese PMI. 
Their reading was *just 48.3 in March*, further dropping from February’s 49.6, signaling a fifth successive month-on-month deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions.  Total opposite to the government figures.
Two of the richest property Tycoons were arrested over the weekend and one of the three big thugs that operates behind the political facade has basically been removed by the other two major thugs that pull the strings.
Demand for resources is slowing!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some more pretty pictures................note property investment as % of GDP.........




Hard Landing...........for Australia!

First coal, then iron ore?

 Iron ore lump rose $140m (13%) with quantities up 16% and unit values down 2%.
  Exports to: China rose $126m (19%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 1%.
  Iron ore fines rose $507m (18%) with quantities up 17%. 
  Exports to: China rose $227m (11%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 3%.
  Hard coking coal fell $579m (27%) with quantities down 27% and unit values down 1%. 
  Exports to: China fell $111m (37%), with quantities down 44% and unit values up 11%.
  Semi–soft coal fell $62m (9%) with quantities up 5% and unit values down 13%.
  Exports to: China rose $142m, with quantities up 155% and unit values down 7%.
  Thermal coal fell $289m (19%) with quantities down 16% and unit values down 4%.
  Exports to: China fell $40m (29%), with quantities down 24% and unit values down 6%.


----------



## CanOz

Certainly their share-market hasn't been as frothy as property. China can re-inflate their  economy again, and will. Exports to Europe fell dramatically and really threw salt in the wound here...

Looks the Baltic Dry Index has bottomed but its not looking good until Europe starts buying again....Here's the article. Data out of Hong Kong is solid IMO.

Wen, Hu...pump it up before you leave...!

CanOz
BTW...god help us if China crashes.:22_yikes:


----------



## Uncle Festivus

I'm not sure push-priming economies works any more.....

Whoever this bloke is, he's not confident either....the bazooka's been fired already?

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China’s consumption boom is drawing to a  close, according to one economist’s contrarian view, which calls for no  growth — or even a contraction — in the Chinese economy and the advent  of an era of deflation and weaker spending.                              
                                 Investments leveraged to the rise of the Chinese consumer, ranging from  *Australian miners* to luxury-handbag makers and even iPhones are due for a  reality check, according to Jim Walker, founder and managing director  of the Hong Kong-based economic research company Asianomics. 

------------ 

He believes that China’s low interest rates have helped stoke  *mal-investment on a scale never seen before*, and that another government  stimulus package appears unlikely, given a *glut* of overbuilding,  including transportation projects such as airports.  

    “It was easy last time, because they just built property and  infrastructure,” Walker said, referring to Beijing’s huge credit  injection to held shield the economy from the global crisis in 2008.                                
                                 “But this time around, there is too much in the way of *misallocated*  capital embedded in the system to allow them to fund new project areas  easily,” he said.                            

------------ 

Likewise, markets that are proxies for Chinese growth — including  regional Asian trading partners South Korea and Taiwan and  commodity-focused markets such as Brazil and *Australia* — should be  avoided. 

Story


----------



## CanOz

Great points as always UF,

Keep in mind that we're still in cycle for the global bull market, so we won't, IMO, see things turn nasty for a while yet. We haven't seen Irrational Exuberance yet and these things can run on longer than you think. 

China will still try and pump up the economy. While i can see there's got to be another big crunch coming, with little left in the printing presses globally to soften the de-leveraging, my bet is for another 6- 12 months of gains on most western equity markets and commodities. We haven't seen the agriculture run up in this bull yet either.

China has a leadership change due soon too, so they'll be wanting that to go well so the masses are happy campers.



CanOz



I'm not


----------



## notting

One thing people over estimate about the Chinese is the Chinese ability to be liberal at anything.  The Chinese think they can control everything, force everything.  They think humans a like machines that can be programmed and even re-programed through torture etc to think anything the Chinese dictators want them to think.

The one thing that most experienced people will tell you is that human nature requires freedom and that markets that operate freely sort themselves out more naturally and operate best when left to operate as freely as possible.  Cities and towns should be allowed to develop in a most organic and natural a way as possible i.e. as demand increases then you open up land to be developed etc.

The Chinese think they will just build 30 cities and 40 super fast train links and so on without any of it being something that is naturally happening or being subject to local demand.  In many instances the Chinese force the rural communities off their land and into mortgages that they cannot afford.  After the mortgages stop being paid they take the properties back off the people again then try to resell it to the next poor farmer only to do the same thing to them.  The dictators have the partnerships with the property tycoons and bank the money. The people are left bereft! There's a lot of them to get though! In the surrounding countries which they have invaded, they just take everything.  The indigenous people whose country the Chines occupy are not even offered employment and basically live off the streets.

If any 'rumors' of such get out it, they will be dealt with the official lines like, ‘This is against Chinese law and we are investigating these 'rumors' or corrupt local officials”  Then they just try to do business with everyone to induce blindness, knowing that if there is enough money in it people will just rather forget about it and get on with making money.

You can only do this kind of thing for so long before you run into a catastrophic collapse.

It’s hard to say when the collapse will be.  Could be now, could be in 15 years’ time.  They will have a plan for the people when that happens.  They are very fond of pulling down the curtains and rolling out the machine guns then creating huge human bonfires to hide the evidence - as in Tienanmen Square.


----------



## CanOz

Notting, honestly where do you get this stuff?

Several of my wife's relatives where moved off their land. Instead of living in a run down two story brick house, they now live in a three story concrete villa that's well finished on the inside. When i asked her what it cost them she said nothing, in fact the government pay them based on the number of siblings in the family, including the grand kids....so they ended up much better off. 

You would be blown away at how a family that looks poor is so wealthy. These people live very thin, and save every dime. Most of her family and relatives are millionaires. Yet they dress very conservatively and pinch every penny. We could learn allot from them.

So there is good and bad here, just like everywhere else. Don't think for a minute that this place is any different than living in the Western countries. The intentions of the leadership are very good, its in the lower levels where it gets mushed up. 

Number one goal is social stability and prosperity.

They're not going to get it perfect, but there trying and they're changing. 

CanOz


----------



## notting

It's possible to paint quite a rosie picture with the 200 million or so privileged class, that have managed to rise to the surface on the back of the slave-domes.
However, if you try some simple thing like visiting some factories or any of the other situations I have mentioned, with some cameras, - *without an 'official guide'* then you will see how far you get when trying to uncover the bigger picture!!  
I know lots of people from China!! They are ones who have escaped not the privileged allowed out. That's where I get the information from!!  I was also very close to the dealings Telstra did and was talking to people involved at the time, I was telling them to question why they paying billions, they ignored me and lost billions!!  So I see it from the top down and bottom up.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> It's possible to paint quite a rosie picture with the 200 million or so privileged class, that have managed to rise to the surface on the back of the slave-domes.
> However, if you try some simple thing like visiting some factories or any of the other situations I have mentioned, with some cameras, - *without an 'official guide'* then you will see how far you get when trying to uncover the bigger picture!!
> I know lots of people from China!! They are ones who have escaped not the privileged allowed out. That's where I get the information from!!  I was also very close to the dealings Telstra did and was talking to people involved at the time, I was telling them to question why they paying billions, they ignored me and lost billions!!  So I see it from the top down and bottom up.




I'm living it mate....been here for nearly 7 years.....married to a stunning Gal in the heart of factory country....

Give it a rest...

CanOz


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> I'm living it mate




Stunning.

[video]http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DuqwK_-xH6UA&v=uqwK_-xH6UA&gl=AU[/video]


----------



## notting

This was supposed to be the link in response to "Give it a rest mate"

I don't know, I kind of think it's important to know what your dealing with, and understand why it was important to keep Huawei out of our NBN and so many other things.
People just don't take much notice of what look like insignificant events like the way the Chinese president was in Europe just as it seemed Greece was on the verge of collapse.  The Chinese were making comments like "China will help"  "What are friends for, at the time of need!!!"  They did nothing.  They just tried to get more power whilst they were looking like they might help.  They called East Turkesta and Tibet friends and made all sorts of offers and nice gestures before they invaded them, committed genocide and added there populations to their slavery and concentration camps like the ones mentioned in the video.


----------



## notting

Bo Xilai's Wife Gu Kailai Named Murder Suspect.
Bo must have become so used to murdering that he got a bit slack and murdered and Englishman.  It's a little harder to cover up it seems when it's a free country person.
I love my wife.  She did it!

http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/news_china/2012-04-10/Bo-Xilai-s-Wife-Gu-Kailai-Named-Murder-Suspect.html

Meanwhile the Chinese army province of North Korea is testing missiles and upgrading its intentions to do bigger and better ones!!!!  It's OK they have plenty of cheaper fuel supplies for their activities - Iran has great capacity at present.


----------



## register

*China's new export orders index*

export orders index


----------



## Uncle Festivus

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) ”” Chinese economic data for April printed *weaker  than expected*, adding to evidence of an *accelerating slowdown* and  highlighting what some analysts said was the need for government action  to stabilize the rate of decline.                                  

    China’s industrial output rose 9.3% in April, while retail sales were up 14.1% for the month, official data showed Friday.                                   

    A Dow Jones Newswires had tipped industrial production to rise 12.2%,  while a Bloomberg News survey had forecast a 15.1% for retail sales.                                   

    Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 20.2% in the January-to-April  period, shy of Bloomberg-survey expectations for 20.5% rise.                                  

    “Today’s data on April spending and output put another nail into hopes  that China’s economy is bottoming out,” Capital Economic analysts said  in a note following the data release.                                  

    IHS Global Insight analysts highlighted concern over the *slowing rate of  growth* in industrial production, as the April gain in output was 2.6  percentage points below levels in March, marking *the fastest slowdown*  since a 2.8-point drop in June 2010.                                  

    The last time China’s growth decelerated by such a rate, it sparked widespread market panic, they said.                                  
    “China’s economy is *even weaker than thought*, with industrial production  growth back in single digits for the first time since the global  financial crisis, and electricity production flat-lining,” the IHS  Global analysts said, referring to addition data showing electrical  output up just 0.7% year-on-year.                                  

    On a month-on-month annualized basis, industrial production growth in April was 4.3%.                                  

    “Looking forward, what is to be watched is how fast the government can stabilize the deceleration,” IHS said.


----------



## notting

There are of course individual opportunities if you are happy to become a 24 hour passive smoker.

However, all I have been able to find is cold bones with big horns lying in the field and billions of ants still crawling all over them looking for something to eat.  This has been the case for about 5 years, despite the growth.
Even the current sidewinder appears to be making a lower high.  You'd almost be starting to look under your calves for a big boy if the mother wasn't a mad cow!!

*"Tiger tiger burning bright,
In the forest of the night,
What dread hand, what dread feet,
Framed thy fearful symmetry?"*
_William Blake (expressing his sentiments for our loving father!)_


----------



## Joules MM1

> Chinese economic data for April printed weaker  than expected, adding to evidence of an accelerating slowdown and  highlighting what some analysts said was the need for government action  to stabilize the rate of decline.
> 
> China’s *industrial output (still) rose 9.3%* in April, while *retail sales were (still) up 14.1%* for the month, official data showed Friday.
> 
> A Dow Jones Newswires had _tipped_ industrial production to rise 12.2%,  while a Bloomberg News survey had _forecast_ a 15.1% for retail sales.
> 
> *Fixed-asset investment* in urban areas *rose 20.2%* in the January-to-April  period, shy of Bloomberg-survey _expectations_ for 20.5% rise.
> 
> “Today’s data on April spending and output put another nail into hopes  that China’s economy is bottoming out,” Capital Economic analysts said  in a note following the data release.
> 
> IHS Global Insight analysts highlighted concern over the *slowing rate of  growth* in industrial production, as the April gain in output was 2.6  percentage points below levels in March, marking *the fastest slowdown*  since a 2.8-point drop in June 2010.
> 
> The last time China’s growth decelerated by such a rate, it sparked widespread market panic, they said.
> “China’s economy is *even weaker than thought*, with industrial production  growth back in single digits for the first time since the global  financial crisis, and electricity production flat-lining,” the IHS  Global analysts said, referring to addition data showing electrical  output up just 0.7% year-on-year.
> On a month-on-month annualized basis, industrial production growth in April was 4.3%.          “Looking forward, what is to be watched is how fast the government can stabilize the deceleration,” IHS said.




always good to stretch the argumentative biasing of media selections, that is, text designed to sell news not to educate or allow for a forward thinking process

there's some logic you dont see everyday: "accelerating slowdown" ....to what ? is there a stopping point? do the analysts who've gotten the latest numbers wrong tip what that stop level is going to be?

so analysts like decline, erm, just not too fast and we have no idea what that speed should be....with all the tipping and forecasting, no one got anything right......doesnt that also mean equal weight goes the other way too? All measurable numbers being relative, aren't the numbers good numbers in themselves from a steady growth point of view, maybe within larger tolerances of means and averages? Are cycles not allowed in bull phases anymore?....are the tipping analysts a contrarian indicator of a low formation not a dooming death nell?

the best measure the analysts came up with, because their expectations/tips/forecasts werent met was "another nail" 

the article even managed to slip in the panic word via a quote.....classic....
and Bloomberg surveys,  yeah, hang your trading hat on that one!

my questions are....about that forward thinking process: were there any short or long trades in this information, do we know what levels to trade, was there actually anything tangible other than the numbers quoted? 

come back, media watch, all is forgiven 

saturday browsing the web......tis the life....


----------



## notting

Interesting article.
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120503/why-china-could-be-the-next-destination-for-the-financial-crisis.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> there's some logic you dont see everyday: "accelerating slowdown" ....to what ? is there a stopping point? do the analysts who've gotten the latest numbers wrong tip what that stop level is going to be?




Not quite sure what you are saying but....

My basic premise, from post 1, is that the China model is structurally unsustainable, and that eventually there is going to be a so called 'hard landing'. When their 'system' is based on a hybrid of 'capitalism' & so called communism (like that went out the door years ago when the red oligarchs got their first smell of money) then you get mis alocation of money & resources firstly to make the 1% rich & secondly to keep the overpopulated employed.

The bottom line - even by the official figures it's about to get even uglier, especially since the rest of the world continues to think and expect that China will be the savior of at least the Euro if not the USA?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

The number of articles in the Fin Review on the slow down of China seems to have jumped in the last few weeks.  

I think looking backwards, we might say that BHP at 49.81 was the peak of the mining boom (Apr 2011).

I might need to have some sort of plan to make money shorting stocks.  Going long looks so hard right now.

Maybe China is done.... cooked.  I can't imagine a catastrophic fall, more like a steady prolonged decline.


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> The number of articles in the Fin Review on the slow down of China seems to have jumped in the last few weeks.
> 
> I think looking backwards, we might say that BHP at 49.81 was the peak of the mining boom (Apr 2011).
> 
> I might need to have some sort of plan to make money shorting stocks.  Going long looks so hard right now.
> 
> Maybe China is done.... cooked.  I can't imagine a catastrophic fall, more like a steady prolonged decline.




You can short US stocks until you are blue in the face, plus there are many ETFs. Keep in mind though that usually the second leg down is a rougher ride that first, with more whip saw trading EOD. Shorting also in this climate, with so many big companies hoarding cash can be dangerous....if you know what I mean! Another reason to go with ETFs.

Don't worry though, the next big bubble is right around the corner.

CanOz


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I do know what you mean.

Next big bubble = energy technology?


----------



## CanOz

Gringotts Bank said:


> I do know what you mean.
> 
> Next big bubble = energy technology?




No idea, possibly...my point was that we live and have always lived in bubble economies.

Everyone gets all doomsday etc, but reality is this has happened hundreds of times over that last 200 years all over the globe. It will continue to happen because we are HUMAN.

This is our reality.

CanOz


----------



## So_Cynical

There was a china expert on TV the other week, an actual China man  he was saying nothing much will happen until the Chinese communist party change of leadership...then its all guns blazing into the second half of 2012.

For me it seems to be a simple (lol) case of believe the Chinese phenomenon will continue or don't....go long/go short, yin/yang.

:dunno: im thinking i should just keep buying the lows and what will be will be.


----------



## Gundini

Uncle Festivus said:


> The bottom line - even by the official figures it's about to get even uglier



 Not sure about this. What if the Chinese are messing with the figures as part of their game plan? Let's face it, the world economies appear to be in the toilet while China "appears" to be slowing? So China is going down the tubes because they have nobody to buy their products? I think the Chinese internal consumption is getting close to 2/3rds of GDP, while still growing at around 8% (a dream in western economies). What if China is waiting to see how Euro pans out before appearing to be the saviour using its trade surplus to get everyone out of the crapper? Surely, "The Emperor does have clothes", while it appears the Democratic economies are naked with the exception of their fig leaf (Printing presses)



Gringotts Bank said:


> The number of articles in the Fin Review on the slow down of China seems to have jumped in the last few weeks.



 Contrarian indicator ?



CanOz said:


> Don't worry though, the next big bubble is right around the corner.
> 
> CanOz




There has been a notion floating around for a couple of years that the next bubble will be "Carbon Credits"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...51/here-comes-the-next-bubble-carbon-trading/

http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com.au/2010/07/goldman-sachs-et-al-next-bubble-carbon.html



So_Cynical said:


> There was a china expert on TV the other week, an actual China man  he was saying nothing much will happen until the Chinese communist party change of leadership...then its all guns blazing into the second half of 2012.
> 
> For me it seems to be a simple (lol) case of believe the Chinese phenomenon will continue or don't....go long/go short, yin/yang.
> 
> :dunno: im thinking i should just keep buying the lows and what will be will be.




Very clever post SC, yin/yang, I am thinking the same thing.


----------



## prawn_86

Gundini said:


> There has been a notion floating around for a couple of years that the next bubble will be "Carbon Credits"




Although the Euro crisis has put a bit of a dampener on this, i still beleive that carbon trading is 'the next big thing'. Now its just a matter of trying to find an investment within that field


----------



## ROE

Gringotts Bank said:


> I do know what you mean.
> 
> Next big bubble = energy technology?




We are on the start of second wave of commodity boom, the first wave is done and dusted buy companies that profit from the second wave..
BHP/RIO get all the benefits of the first wave.

There are plenty of real facts out there that we are on our way to second wave.
don't listen to the noise look at the facts and the figures...

Just like Financial, you buy banks when the market gone nut with housing, they are the beneficiary of the first wave..

second wave you buy debt collectors, cash converters and Thorn Group as people de-leverage and pay off debt 

BHP trades cheap for a reason their good days are behind it...now if you can find second wave companies trade cheap now that is a bargain to have


----------



## hangseng

http://www.petermartin.com.au/2012/05/mining-boom-not-compared-to-whats-to.html


*



			"All of the investment in the mining boom to date is but a shadow of what’s about to come according to the latest update by the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics."
		
Click to expand...


*


> "The analysis identifies “advanced projects” worth a jaw-dropping $260.8 billion, as well as a second category of less-advanced projects worth $242.4 billion.
> 
> The total - the investment Australia would get if all the projects came to fruition - exceeds half a trillion Australian dollars, easily a new investment milestone.
> 
> By way of comparison the Bureau totals all of the resource and energy investment to date in both of the mining booms since the turn of the century. It amounts to $138.4 billion. (That’s an inflation-adjusted figure, the dollar figure is lower.)"


----------



## CanOz

I wondered why they were tightening the borders for fear of the flight of high raking officials. It was on the Bloomy the other day...heres one opinion:

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

hangseng said:


> http://www.petermartin.com.au/2012/05/mining-boom-not-compared-to-whats-to.html



The total - the investment Australia would get if all the projects came  to fruition .......................

That's a mighty big 'if' the way things are going - these projects can all be pulled at the stroke of a pen - BHP's chairman categorically and emphatically said that they will not be spending the $80B on projects next financial year.

The other side is that there is simply not enough liquidity to fund all of these projects anyway, at least not by the Oz banks, and as there is a small kerfuffle going on with a few banks overseas apparently they too would be reluctant to fund anything with a hard landing in China happening.....

So what are you buying if you are so bullish??

China's crash has only just started.


----------



## imperator

Uncle Festivus said:


> The total - the investment Australia would get if all the projects came  to fruition .......................
> 
> That's a mighty big 'if' the way things are going - these projects can all be pulled at the stroke of a pen - BHP's chairman categorically and emphatically said that they will not be spending the $80B on projects next financial year.
> 
> The other side is that there is simply not enough liquidity to fund all of these projects anyway, at least not by the Oz banks, and as there is a small kerfuffle going on with a few banks overseas apparently they too would be reluctant to fund anything with a hard landing in China happening.....
> 
> So what are you buying if you are so bullish??
> 
> China's crash has only just started.




I think you may be being a tad dramatic.

Sure, China has been cooling in light off:
- tight monetary and fiscal settings (which were set that way to combat inflation - which has eased, and the current signs suggest that this inflation will remain within the target range over thing coming period).

- the fact that these policy settings have caused (amongst other things) fixed asset investment (buildings, infrastructure etc) growth to slow. It should be noted that this was the specific intention of Chinese policy makers for the past 18 or so months given that they pumped arguably too much stimulus into the economy during the early stages of the GFC, and they had to manage this carefully so that it didn't get out of hand.

- slowing external demand - there's no doubt about, and part of that is cyclical, and other parts are structural in the sense that - as you indicated, the higher production costs cause production shifts from china to other countries. Note however that in most industries, china still has significant competitive advantages - sure some other ASEAN nations can now compete with china in low value added manufacturing for example, but, historically over time, as economies develop, this is a normal development. The portion of activity attributable to "secondary industries" declines, and that attributable to tertiary industries increases. This is the next phase of the Chinese development, as their "consumer class emerges". So that trend we"re seeing, and that you mentioned, is actually positive overall and indeed expected.

- the easing in commodity prices we have seen recently will have a significant impact on chinese inflation. Having said that, I agree with you re food price inflation - that will likely remain an issue particularly if adverse weather events occur. But importantly, overall, it is my view that it is more probable inflation will remain under control given the easing in commodity prices, and the slow down in activity itself which of course leads to disinflationary pressures.

Now, moving on to why I don't Beleive China will slow significantly (defined as growth dropping below 6% for more than two consecutive quarters):

1. Their economic development has a long way to run. There's still a lot of fixed asset investment to occur mid term, and we will see the growth composition change over time to one that is more dominated by high value service industries, and related to that change is of course an increase in consumption. China will still remain a prominent manufacturer, even in the lower value segments, for years to come, but the growth contribution of such will decline in favor of that coming from other areas of the economy.

2. Chinese policy settings are tight. They were set when the view of the next 5 years was much rosier. This provides them with SIGNIFICANT room to provide support to their economy. Basically, policy makers will update settings in light of the weaker than expected activity of late, and the worsened global outlook.

3. Chinese policy makers have a great ECONOMIC track record over the past few decades. I'm happy to put my money behind a continuation of that good economic management, particularly when the Chinese political cycle is in a phase where politicians will want to be more active in ensuring that their economic targets are delivered.
4. Liquidity in ASIA is much better than In developed nations (excluding solid sovereign debt markets of course I.e. the AAAs of USA, Germany, and now, Albeit to a lesser extend, Aus.
5. The most important implication of the above is that China will embark on substantial monetary easing, and most likely will also launch fiscal stimulus packages, which will be focussed on fixed asset investment and good for Australian resource and resource related industries.

As a side note, i am not making commodity price bets. I am confident in the strength in quantity mid term, not prices. In my view, prices will continue to normalize - although they will remain high from a historical perspective.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

imperator said:


> Now, moving on to why I don't Beleive China will slow significantly (defined as growth dropping below 6% for more than two consecutive quarters):




Bearing in mind that anything below 8% is contraction for them.........

Yes, your points are all very logical & plausible, but their problem is one of overproduction because they have a _command-the-demand_ type economic model - the central planners command a certain figure to be attained, and so it shall, regardless of any intrinsic demand....

Here's a fun game - Google this - China glut - to see how bad they have overproduced just about everything, mostly humans.......

http://brazilianbubble.com/zulauf-o...eme-the-upside-the-more-painful-the-downside/


----------



## Joules MM1

*Rising China is a Misnomer...and Other Actionable Takeaways*

June 20, 2012

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-res...a-is-a-misnomerand-other-actionable-takeways/



> Did you know that at the beginning of the 19th century, China made up the largest share of the world’s GDP? This makes the term “Rising China” a misnomer, as the country has been simply returning to, instead of rising to, super power, says former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.





> ... in 1972, annual bilateral trade between the U.S. and China was less than $100 million (back then, the largest category of U.S. exports to China was cereal; from China to the U.S. it was animal parts). Now trade is more than $1 billion a day, with 800,000 U.S. jobs dependent on exports of goods and services to China.


----------



## CanOz

Nothing like a rubbery set of figures or three!!:dunno:


----------



## numbercruncher

CanOz said:


> Nothing like a rubbery set of figures or three!!:dunno:





Yes clearly dodgy numbers coming out of China - its alll bad news for sure - The rest of the world cant nose dive as it has and China remain thriving ....


----------



## drsmith

Their stock market has not exactly recovered with confidence from the 2008 crash.


----------



## CanOz

drsmith said:


> Their stock market has not exactly recovered with confidence from the 2008 crash.




Name one, other than a US index that has?

*QE*...otherwise known as 'kick the can down the road'!

CanOz


----------



## drsmith

CanOz said:


> Name one, other than a US index that has?
> 
> *QE*...otherwise known as 'kick the can down the road'!
> 
> CanOz



That highlights that all is not well, as equity markets see it.

China though is of particular interest as its share market performance is not consistent with its rate of economic growth.


----------



## CanOz

drsmith said:


> That highlights that all is not well, as equity markets see it.
> 
> China though is of particular interest as its share market performance is not consistent with its rate of economic growth.




I would say that's its not totally reflective of the growth, however i would also argue that their market went vertical prior to the GFC...it was basically a big casino. Not much has changed, just fewer punters. It'll be years before we see another big equity bubble i reckon.

CanOz


----------



## drsmith

On Q&A tonight towards the end of the show (~10:15pm EST), there was an interesting question on China's economy from a member of the audiance (who stated he had recently lived there) and an even more interesting response from the panelist, Dr John Lee.

Dr John Lee's comments on their banking system was of particular interest. Both were of the view that China's economy was a bubble and at some point, would burst.


----------



## CanOz

drsmith said:


> On Q&A tonight towards the end of the show (~10:15pm EST), there was an interesting question on China's economy from a member of the audiance (who stated he had recently lived there) and an even more interesting response from the panelist, Dr John Lee.
> 
> Dr John Lee's comments on their banking system was of particular interest. Both were of the view that China's economy was a bubble and at some point, would burst.




Yep, unless they can unlock some of the consumer savings then a hard landing would have to be on the cards....

Lots of money in banks here though, let not forget that they are legendary savers...

CanOz


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Yep, unless they can unlock some of the consumer savings then a hard landing would have to be on the cards....
> 
> Lots of money in banks here though, let not forget that they are legendary savers...
> 
> CanOz




So are the Japanese, and their economy has gone nowhere for the last 20 years 

It's the perfect black swan in the making based on centrally controlled capitalism, centrally controlled information dissemination, indoctrinated corruption and low regard for basic human rights. Just needs a spark to recommence the revolution......

From the figures I see, China may well already be insolvent too, despite the so called trillions in foreign reserves....


----------



## CanOz

Uncle Festivus said:


> So are the Japanese, and their economy has gone nowhere for the last 20 years
> 
> It's the perfect black swan in the making based on centrally controlled capitalism, centrally controlled information dissemination, indoctrinated corruption and low regard for basic human rights. Just needs a spark to recommence the revolution......
> 
> From the figures I see, China may well already be insolvent too, despite the so called trillions in foreign reserves....





UF, i respect your posts....but give me a break...if China is insolvent, the world is insolvent. Europe would most certainly be close now, the US has been for years...

If the world is insolvent then it pretty much says it all really...insolvency doesn't matter for nations to big too fail!

CanOz

CanOz


----------



## notting

China stability has a lot to do with the oil price which effects food inflation.  That has eased tremendously. 
The army is so big and brutal the people are pretty much defenceless. There is so much internal spying even from your own family members that those voicing any politically dissatisfaction are silenced very quickly. The dobbing family member or friend is rewarded and when your poor and opressed that's attractive.
The only hope for the people is that the army turns on itself!  Yet the leaders are pretty crafty, what they tend to do is take out the leader of such a possibility before that happens.


----------



## prawn_86

CanOz said:


> UF, i respect your posts....but give me a break...if China is insolvent, the world is insolvent. Europe would most certainly be close now, the US has been for years...
> 
> If the world is insolvent then it pretty much says it all really...insolvency doesn't matter for nations to big too fail!
> 
> CanOz
> 
> CanOz




Yeh i always said that like 5 - 8 years ago. Every major country is broke. At some stage they just need to 'reset to zero' and start over again. If every country did it at once, then the only losers would be who is holding their now worthless debt (ie all the banks, hedge funds etc). Of course their would be flow on effects, but if we wiped out pretty much the whole financial system and all debt, providing there was structures in place for new banks etc, then there might not be too much effect for Joe Average


----------



## drsmith

The transcript from yesterday's Q&A (quotations wouldn't post),

_PETER HINTON: I recently lived in China. I moved back to Australia after living there for about two years and one of the enduring memories I have of the place is empty shopping malls, empty apartments, empty office buildings. There seems to be a lot of money trading hands but I don't know how they are making a profit and it’s led some economists to say or at least speculate that the Communist Party of China is the world's largest Ponzi scheme and I was wanting to know whether or not you’ve got any evidence that could sort of support that theory? 

JOHN LEE: Well, the simple answer is that most of these projects aren't making a profit. You know, if you look at various figures that economists and researchers come up with, half of these things that they build don't make a profit. *Now, you might ask "Well, why do they build them?". They build them because they have no other way of generating growth. And how do they do it, where do they get the money from? They get the money - essentially you’d have - I don't want to get too technical but they have a closed banking system, which means money doesn't get out of the country, which means that state owned banks effectively control all of the savings in the country. There is a enormous pool of liquidity that comes from the savings of the Chinese people. It’s pumped into state owned enterprises that build these buildings that are empty or no one needs.*

PETER HINTON: So is that a yes? 

JOHN LEE: Well, it’s a yes but this kind of model can go on for quite a long time.

TONY JONES: How long can it go on, because Nouriel Roubini, who is one of those economists I think that our questioner is talking about, says that China is headed for a very hard landing and that on the back of that - because this is unsustainable, he thinks, and on the back of that Australia will have a hard landing? 

JOHN LEE: Well, the thing about bubbles it is certainly is a bubble. But the thing about bubbles is that, you know, everyone says the bubble will burst next year and it doesn't burst and it keeps on going and there comes a point where people say, well, China is a new paradigm and then the bubble will burst. And, you know, eventually this can't go on. When the bubble bursts we don't know how severe it will be but it certainly will happen. The consequences for Australia will obviously be pretty severe. I think the Australian businesses will be okay because we’ll adapt but I think the Government's fiscal position could be in a bit of trouble. But, as I said, the tipping point, it’s not a technical tipping point. It’s a psychological tipping point._

http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3527805.htm

My bold.


----------



## CanOz

70% of the Villas behind me right now are empty...but owned.

There was a local friend of mine a few years ago and we were having dinner....talking about some of the problems here....he knew this guy in charge of selling land, at the 'Land Bureau'. He said ( and my friend said he was dead serious ), that he had many apartments, a dozen or so. They were almost all empty shells, with only a couple finished inside.

But...in one room of each he had a safe, where he filled it with 100 RMB notes. Each safe contained many millions of Yuan, he could not keep it in the bank for fear of discovery.

How many are there like him do you think??

CanOz


----------



## Julia

CanOz said:


> 70% of the Villas behind me right now are empty...but owned.
> 
> There was a local friend of mine a few years ago and we were having dinner....talking about some of the problems here....he knew this guy in charge of selling land, at the 'Land Bureau'. He said ( and my friend said he was dead serious ), that he had many apartments, a dozen or so. They were almost all empty shells, with only a couple finished inside.
> 
> But...in one room of each he had a safe, where he filled it with 100 RMB notes. Each safe contained many millions of Yuan, he could not keep it in the bank for fear of discovery.
> 
> How many are there like him do you think??
> 
> CanOz



How interesting.  Was this money he didn't want to pay tax on?  Is there some other reason for hiding his assets?
Does China have a similar taxation system to that which we employ here?
Are the Chinese people able to e.g. invest in a share market, bank deposits etc?
Apologies if the questions are ignorant.  I know nothing about China's internal function.


----------



## CanOz

Julia said:


> How interesting.  Was this money he didn't want to pay tax on?  Is there some other reason for hiding his assets?
> Does China have a similar taxation system to that which we employ here?
> Are the Chinese people able to e.g. invest in a share market, bank deposits etc?
> Apologies if the questions are ignorant.  I know nothing about China's internal function.




If they knew he had that much money they would assume (correctly) he was taking kick backs, then they would shoot him between the eyes:badass:.

That's why they buy houses for cash, direct from the developer. Its the one of a few things they can do with all their money, as well as spend it on jewelry for their mistresses, super-cars for the their sons, convertibles for their  daughters,, holidays, grogg, and weekends of punting in Macau.

If only everyone else could consume like them the rest of the world would be fine!

CanOz


----------



## Julia

CanOz said:


> If they knew he had that much money they would assume (correctly) he was taking kick backs, then they would shoot him between the eyes:badass:.
> 
> That's why they buy houses for cash, direct from the developer. Its the one of a few things they can do with all their money, as well as spend it on jewelry for their mistresses, super-cars for the their sons, convertibles for their  daughters,, holidays, grogg, and weekends of punting in Macau.



Ah, I see.   Corruption brings its own downside obviously.  Having to own apartments to hide the cash seems somewhat counterproductive to me.

Can you comment on the other questions, i.e. does the average Chinese invest in the stock market, having savings in bank deposits etc?


----------



## CanOz

Julia said:


> Ah, I see.   Corruption brings its own downside obviously.  Having to own apartments to hide the cash seems somewhat counterproductive to me.
> 
> Can you comment on the other questions, i.e. does the average Chinese invest in the stock market, having savings in bank deposits etc?




No much goes into the equity markets...too many got burned last time and they view it as a casino...they'd rather go to Macau. 

They have huge amounts of savings, you cannot believe it. The most unassuming (oppressed ) old lady's are quite wealthy. My mate in Harbin has a little old lady next door and she collects his soft drink bottles for the refund. He separates them just for her. One of his other neighbors was saying that she had five apartments, each worth well over 1 million RMB. 

Still collecting bottles....they're phenomenal savers. The banks still pay interest over here. 

CanOz


----------



## notting

Julia said:


> does the  average Chinese invest in the stock market, having savings in bank deposits etc?




They tend to be savers because they know the government will not look after them later on in life.  Hence the nation of great consumers coming down the line is a bit of a naive joke.  Though there is plenty of consuming in the prince-ling class.


----------



## McLovin

CanOz said:


> No much goes into the equity markets...too many got burned last time and they view it as a casino...they'd rather go to Macau.
> 
> They have huge amounts of savings, you cannot believe it. The most unassuming (oppressed ) old lady's are quite wealthy. My mate in Harbin has a little old lady next door and she collects his soft drink bottles for the refund. He separates them just for her. One of his other neighbors was saying that she had five apartments, each worth well over 1 million RMB.
> 
> Still collecting bottles....they're phenomenal savers. The banks still pay interest over here.
> 
> CanOz




Can

You might be interested in John Hempton's opinion as to what drives the high saving rate in China.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/macroeconomics-of-chinese-kleptocracy.html

Worth the read.


----------



## sinner

Julia, if you are interested in China/its internals, checkout Michael Pettis blog, mpettis.com ...he lives in China and is a professor of economics at (IIRC) Peking University. There was a pretty good piece with him in the last Foreign Correspondent episode on the empty cities.

The stuff can be a bit thick (his opinion is mostly surrounding balance of trade issues) but definitely worthwhile if you ask me. Especially for Aussies!


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> They tend to be savers because they know the government will not look after them later on in life.  Hence the nation of great consumers coming down the line is a bit of a naive joke.  Though there is plenty of consuming in the prince-ling class.




I wonder who is really 







> naive



....Those who know the g'mint won't look after them :nono: and save everything for the future...or those that still believe the g'mint will look after them and spend everything:1zhelp:?

It disgusts me how everyone talks about how corrupt this G'mint may be, but yet tolerate how corrupt the US government has clearly shown it self to be...not only are they and the bloody bankers responsible for the biggest fraud in history, but no ones even gone to jail for it!! Why bother harping on about the Chinese??? i don't get it?

CanOz


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> I wonder who is really ....Those who know the g'mint won't look after them :nono: and save everything for the future...or those that still believe the g'mint will look after them and spend everything:1zhelp:?




Confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus -/freedom/human rights/self-determination/confidence/consumerism/prosperity.
Artificially, deflating your currency from the get go will help you win the race to the bottom.  The Chines thought they would become so powerful the quickest and do the rest with force before their economy became a joke like Zimbabwe. 
The West just taps currency dilution ever so gently by comparison, whilst deflation is on the cards, diluting the dumb money - Chinese trillions in foreign debt.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> It disgusts me how everyone talks about how corrupt this G'mint may be, but yet tolerate how corrupt the US government has clearly shown it self to be...not only are they and the bloody bankers responsible for the biggest fraud in history, but no ones even gone to jail for it!! Why bother harping on about the Chinese??? i don't get it?
> 
> CanOz




No, I think there is ever growing & palpable anger amongst Americans too at both their elected 'representatives' and big business. For that matter, the world over there is indecision and confusion resulting in hung parliaments or like we have here, controlled by a handfull of fruit loops.

The reason why I try to highlight China is 


we are practically at their mercy economically, 
their data is suspect 
their economics is not sustainable
go to point 1 

For example, and from memory, local government debt is officially something like $2.2T while foreign reserves are like $3T. A lot of that debt simply won't be paid back because the projects that the money went into are not economically viable - showing up in the deteriorating distressed loans data. That money was borrowed from bank depositors - I'm not sure how they account for this?? Does the central bank just print more like all other CB's?

There may or may not be a lot of cash under beds, but if/when they get their hard landing will it be any good to them? Their big problem is that they are not spending enough of their saving to replace the loss of foreign earnings - the great re-balancing. As far as not paying tax - sounds a little like Greece, see how they ended up?

Looking at the big picture, here we are 5 or so years since the start of the GFC and what have we got? A slowing global economy, several countries already in recession, trillions more in debt and nothing to show for it??

Like I've said many times before, I'm neither an optimist or a pessimist  - the facts take care of themselves, eventually. The only problem I see for the glass half full mob is that they will always be disappointed when reality finally dawns. 

It's going to get ugly irrespective of what I say or do, just the timing is unknown.......I'm surprised they have kicked it along this far.


----------



## notting

Selling Property the Chinese way.
Love your citizens - 
http://www.tchrd.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=a%20rticle&id=243:tibetans-sentenced-for-corruption-protest&catid=70:2012-news&Itemid=162


----------



## CanOz

[SUP][/SUP]







notting said:


> Selling Property the Chinese way.
> Love your citizens -
> http://www.tchrd.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=a%20rticle&id=243:tibetans-sentenced-for-corruption-protest&catid=70:2012-news&Itemid=162




Notting, it's not good is it? When a country treats their minorities poorly, it gets covered up. 

Perhaps you can think of some crimes against other minorities in other countries too? Or do you just like picking on China?

I have nothing against you always citing the worst about China. I dislike the fact that you only seem to do this with China. This makes you seem like a hypocrit, as I'm sure you recall Australia's past....and present?

CanOz


----------



## notting

There is nothing like China's *present*.
The cruelty, cunning and scale is unprecedented, as the Canadian minister said.
It's a tolerated holocaust.  No one is sending in UN investigations etc.
Not many people knew about the Jews as it happened but people feel it's still worth flagging and say 'never again' and 'lest we forget' and feel 'we would not tolerate this kind of thing if it was happening now' but carry on about China as if it's all OK!
Besides it's good to know how China's dictators sell property and create their economy and economic statistics as we view them as our most important trading partner!
http://www.tchrd.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=a%20rticle&id=243:tibetans-sentenced-for-corruption-protest&catid=70:2012-news&Itemid=162


----------



## CanOz

Yes, it's a horrible part of this country. As is Australia's treatment of the aboriginies, north Americas native Indian genocide. 

CanOz


----------



## drsmith

Alan Kohler plonked the following graphic up on the ABC news yesterday evening.


----------



## Joules MM1

*'Anti-Goldilocks' China Data Not Enough To Move Needle*

on 07/12/2012 22:53 -0400

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/anti-goldilocks-china-data-not-enough-move-needle



> A fractional miss of estimates for GDP growth (printing at +7.6% vs expectations of +7.7%) coupled with a just-as-fractional beat in Retail Sales (+13.7% YoY vs expectations of +13.4%) seems to be the perfect remedy for a global-depression-expecting and/or massive-stimulus-hungry market. GDP growth was its slowest since March 2009 but it appears the 'sell the rumor, buy the news crowd' are disappointed. S&P 500 futures popped a few pts and then faded back - remaining around +3pts for now (and EUR rallied into the number, sold off on the print and is now limping back higher). As we noted earlier, this is not the data you have been looking for - instead focus on hot money flows and the property pop, as the Chinese continue to impress with their 'data' showing the first engineered 'soft-landing' in history.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Forget China's Goal-Seeked GDP Tonight; This Is The Chart That Keeps The PBOC Up At Night*

on 07/12/2012 20:12 -0400



> (as Stratfor's analysis of the record high prices paid just this week for Beijing property - by an SOE no less - and its massive 'microcosm' insight into the bubbliciousness of the PBOC's attempts to stave off the inevitable 'landing'); to the rather shocking insight that Diapason Commodities' Sean Corrigan offers that 'Hot Money Flows' have left China at a rates exceeding that during the worst of the Lehman crisis; take a range of key indicators – from electricity usage, to Shanghai container throughput, to nationwide rail freight ton-miles, to steel output – and you will notice that none of these shows a rate of growth during the second quarter of more than 4% from 2011, and some are as low as 1%.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/us-china-banks-idUSBRE87501T20120806

*China's answer to subprime bets: the "Golden Elephant"*

excerpt



> (Reuters) - The Chinese investment vehicle known as "Golden Elephant No. 38" promises buyers a 7.2 percent return per year. That's more than double the rate offered on savings accounts nationally.
> 
> Absent from the product's prospectus is any indication of the asset underpinning Golden Elephant: a near-empty housing project in the rural town of Taihe, at the end of a dirt path amid rice fields in one of China's poorest provinces.






> "ON PAPER..."
> 
> The trusts, also called "shadow banks", create the wealth management products and then give them to banks to sell to their customers.
> 
> The bank staff Reuters spoke to stressed the low-risk nature of the products, despite the higher-than-normal returns being promised. They often could not say where the proceeds of the product would be invested.
> 
> "On paper, these are not principal guaranteed but you don't have to worry about that," said a wealth manager at a local branch of Bank of Communications, China's No. 5 lender. "All our clients who've previously bought these products got their principal plus interest back."
> 
> It is not entirely clear who bears the risk if the products default.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Joules MM1 said:


> http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/us-china-banks-idUSBRE87501T20120806
> 
> *China's answer to subprime bets: the "Golden Elephant"*
> 
> excerpt




At last, a modern name for a golden oldie - Ponzi - shall now henceforth be known as Golden Elephants!

Last to leave please turn the lights off......


----------



## Bushman

That export engine is starting to splutter badly. 

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's trade surplus unexpected narrowed in July as exports barely grew from the year-earlier month and imports increased at a smaller rate, according to data released Friday. The trade surplus for the month dropped to $25.1 billion from $31.7 billion in June, falling way short of estimates for a surplus of $35.2 billion in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists. Exports rose just 1% from the year-ago period, while imports expanded 4.7%, compared to expectations for an 8% rise in exports and a 7% rise in imports. In June, China's exports rose 11.3%, while imports increased 6.3%. Shares in Hong Kong extended losses after the disappointing data, with the Hang Seng Index /quotes/zigman/2622475 HK:HSI -0.60% sliding 0.7% to 20,138.68.


----------



## Joules MM1

*China factory sector shrinks most in 9 months*: survey



By Lucy Hornby

BEIJING | Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:56pm EDT

excerpt 







> China's factories contracted in August the most in nine months according to a survey showing falling export orders and rising inventories, signs that more policy action is probably needed to stop a slowdown in economic growth now in a seventh quarter.
> 
> The HSBC Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 47.8 in August, its lowest level since November, down from both the 49.5 July flash and the 49.3 final reading.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/23/us-china-economy-flash-pmi-idUSBRE87M03G20120823


----------



## notting

And....



> The severity of China’s inventory overhang has been carefully masked by the blocking or adjusting of economic data by the Chinese government ”” all part of an effort to prop up confidence in the economy among business managers and investors.




from
*China Confronts Mounting Piles of Unsold Goods*corn:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48773431


----------



## Joules MM1

BBG: *China MNI August Flash Business Sentiment Indicator*
By Ed Thomas  || August 24, 2012 at 01:54 GMT 



> Current Condition
> 
> Overall Business Conditions 46.76 (prior 49.73)
> New Orders 46.57 (prior 52.32)
> Production 43.33 (prior 49.03)
> 
> MoM Level Change
> 
> Overall Business Conditions-2.97 (prior -3.48)
> New Orders -5.75 (prior -2.12)
> Production -5.70 (prior -0.97)
> 
> With all the figures below 50 showing that the Chinese economy is shrinking further than last month . The official survey of China business sentiment will be release in one week .


----------



## Joules MM1

*Insight: China's steel traders expose banks' bad debts*



By Ruby Lian and Kelvin Soh

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG | Sun Sep 2, 2012 6:00pm EDT
excerpts


> The battle between the banks and steel traders also exposes flaws in the 4 trillion ($629 billion) stimulus round in 2008, and offers a warning to those calling for pumping more money into the system. At that time, Chinese banks threw money at the steel trade - a crucial cog in supplying the country's massive construction and infrastructure growth.






> In one Shanghai courtroom, steel trading firm boss Li tries to fend off a fed-up lender. China Minsheng Bank, the country's eighth-biggest lender, is trying to recover 3 million yuan ($472,100) of loans it made to the trading firm.
> 
> When the bank recalled the loan in June, Li tried to sell two Shanghai apartments she had used as collateral. In a flat property market, she came up empty-handed.
> 
> Her plea for more time to repay is one of more than 20 court cases Chinese banks have taken against steel traders. The targets tend to be mainly smaller trading firms with fewer than 50 employees, as the larger state-backed steel firms have more cash reserves.
> 
> These traders are mainly based in and around Shanghai, a tight-knit community drawn from Zhouning in the southern province of Fujian. At its peak in 2009, some 12,000 steel trading companies were scattered across the city, accounting for close to 3 percent of Shanghai's GDP, according to the local business chamber.
> 
> By some estimates, the number of steel traders has fallen by half, as steel prices crumpled in the third quarter of 2011.
> 
> "The court cases you see are usually when things get desperate," said a loans official at a Shanghai branch of Bank of Communications, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject. "We've had people go missing. Some have fled overseas, while others just take on a new identity and move somewhere else."
> 
> The owner of one of China's biggest steel trading firms, Yizhou Group, skipped the country with his wife and children after piling up about 1 billion yuan ($157 million) in loans to banks including Bank of Communications, the official said.
> 
> Calls to Yizhou were not answered.
> 
> In the Shanghai courtroom, lawyers for Minsheng Bank told Li after the hearing that banks were desperate to recall loans as they had heard of some borrowers going missing with tens of millions of yuan still owed.
> 
> "One trader fled to Australia after borrowing 23 million yuan, while others used their property as collateral to several banks at the same time " Li said, recounting what she'd heard from a lawyer. "So banks are very cautious and taking immediate action against borrowers if they don't repay."




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/02/us-china-banks-steel-idUSBRE8810AM20120902


----------



## Uncle Festivus

More stimulis would be like pushing on a piece of spaghetti?

Hard landing.......for us too......as the 2 speed economy becomes one, again?

Commodity prices yoy


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> More stimulis would be like pushing on a piece of spaghetti?
> 
> Hard landing.......for us too......as the 2 speed economy becomes one, again?
> 
> Commodity prices yoy
> 
> View attachment 48819




Thats a stinker of a data release.

Out of all the string pushers I reckon china will push the first and most.


----------



## Joules MM1

Uncle Festivus said:


> More stimulis would be like pushing on a piece of spaghetti?
> 
> Hard landing.......for us too......as the 2 speed economy becomes one, again?
> 
> Commodity prices yoy
> 
> View attachment 48819




.....so the period where prices were (considerably) lower than now, how do we put that into perspective.....was the commodity set-up worse then? (and look at where equities are now).....is this a cup half full view?

does the game have to be viewed in a cliff face, as in, all things go to zero with no expansion?

speaking of zero......

tw@terring:



> Sean Brodrick ‏@SeanBrodrick
> 
> You ever get the feeling that @zerohedge will only be satisfied when the Earth splits apart in a fiery doom?




like that segway ?


----------



## skc

Joules MM1 said:


> speaking of zero......
> 
> tw@terring:
> 
> 
> 
> like that segway ?




 

The earth splitting up is not enough - gold also needs to be accepted by aliens at $9000/oz (assuming we have to abandon earth in a spaceship, and those aliens will not accept our fiat currency as payment for living on their planet).


----------



## baby_swallow

Here's a 3-yr comparison chart of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Shanghai and the Aust Mining (XMM)
Notice how deadly accurate the BDI as a long term leading indicator.
And here's the kick - while the BDI had dropped 75% in 8 months from May 2010 to Jan 2011, Shanghai see-sawed but the Aust resources continued to rally up to the peak in April 2011.
I reckon the Big Boyz (int'l hedge funds) made squillions shorting RIO and BHP.


----------



## Joules MM1

baby_swallow said:


> Here's a 3-yr comparison chart of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Shanghai and the Aust Mining (XMM)
> Notice how deadly accurate the BDI as a long term leading indicator.
> And here's the kick - while the BDI had dropped 75% in 8 months from May 2010 to Jan 2011, Shanghai see-sawed but the Aust resources continued to rally up to the peak in April 2011.
> I reckon the Big Boyz (int'l hedge funds) made squillions shorting RIO and BHP.




big lag time in cause and effect of the bdi v the other instruments esp if you add in the iron ore chart.......probably big lag on speculation, the higher the food chain of speculation the wider the lag

those charts look like buy opportunities.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

baby_swallow said:


> I reckon the Big Boyz (int'l hedge funds) made squillions shorting RIO and BHP.




Except they haven't cuz the short positions on them have been tiny all year.


----------



## Steve C

Trembling Hand said:


> Except they haven't cuz the short positions on them have been tiny all year.




Trembling Hand - Sorry if this is a really stupid question, but how can you tell the above?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Steve C said:


> Trembling Hand - Sorry if this is a really stupid question, but how can you tell the above?




http://asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument


----------



## Steve C

Trembling Hand said:


> http://asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument




Thanks! You really do learn something new everyday on here.


----------



## notting

*Interesting fundamental ground action - *
Home Depot Inc (HD, Fortune 500) said it will close all seven of its big box stores and cut 850 jobs in China, another sign that companies are feeling the effects of a slowing Chinese economy.

We need to see signs of a pickup in Europ whch is what is dragging China most at present IMO.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/weaker-chinese-pmi-data/
excerpt



> Chinese manufacturing PMI declined to 47.9 in September, from 47.6 in August and the 11th consecutive monthly decline, according to HSBC/Markit. Export orders declined at the fastest rate in 42 months, whilst purchasing activity fell for the 5th consecutive month. Input and output prices continued to decline and businesses shed labour for the 7th consecutive month.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

China = trend = overproduce = glut = hard landing

Yet another glut......



> Though worldwide demand for solar panels and wind turbines has grown rapidly over the last five years, China’s manufacturing capacity has soared even faster, creating enormous oversupply and a ferocious price war.
> 
> The result is a looming financial disaster, not only for manufacturers but for state-owned banks that financed factories with approximately $18 billion in low-rate loans and for municipal and provincial governments that provided loan guarantees and sold manufacturers valuable land at deeply discounted prices.
> 
> China’s biggest solar panel makers are suffering losses of up to $1 for every $3 of sales this year, as panel prices have fallen by three-fourths since 2008.




http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/business/global/glut-of-solar-panels-is-a-new-test-for-china.html?_r=3&emc=eta1

What happens when QE meets zero demand?



> GUANGZHOU, China ”” After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its newly struggling economy: a huge buildup of unsold goods that is cluttering shop floors, clogging car dealerships and filling factory warehouses.
> 
> The glut of everything from steel and household appliances to cars and apartments is hampering China’s efforts to emerge from a sharp economic slowdown. It has also produced a series of price wars and has led manufacturers to redouble efforts to export what they cannot sell at home.
> 
> The severity of China’s inventory overhang has been carefully masked by the blocking or adjusting of economic data by the Chinese government ”” all part of an effort to prop up confidence in the economy among business managers and investors.




General rule these days - double the bad news, halve the good news?


----------



## Joules MM1

*World Bank cuts East Asia GDP outlook, flags China risks*

excerpt



> China's economy will likely expand by 7.7 percent this year, down from a May estimate of 8.2 percent, while the growth forecast for 2013 was cut to 8.1 percent from an earlier 8.6 percent.
> 
> As for the region as a whole, the World Bank now expects developing East Asia to grow by 7.2 percent this year and 7.6 percent in 2013, down from earlier estimates of 7.6 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...ource=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943

(ed, the unmeasured and shock value of the title of many (purported news) articles never quite seem to match the actuality of the figures)


----------



## aliceconer

The representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Hong Kong recently said that China's economy has no risk of hard landing. He believes that when the economic downturn, the People's Bank could cut interest rates again, and the central needs not to launch massive economic stimulus measures.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

aliceconer said:


> The representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Hong Kong recently said that China's economy has no risk of hard landing. He believes that when the economic downturn, the People's Bank could cut interest rates again, and the central needs not to launch massive economic stimulus measures.




Phew - now I can sleep at night 

If only it were that simple.......


----------



## grace

This is worth a listen - to the whole lot if you can spare the time. Das starts after the introductions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP8AjMAdql4

Satyajit Das - The end of ponzi prosperity

Low or no growth for a long time and stagnation are his predictions. There is also a prediction of 25% chance of total collapse or 75% stagnation.

"turning Japanese" - the lost decades is a theme. 

Quite a bit about China in this presentation by Das.  I posted this in another thread too.  Apologies to those who have seen it there.


----------



## notting

World seems to be wizing up to filthy lies such as -
 "China's inflation eases to 1.9 per cent"
AU$ up over weekend down today, miners up this morning then fading to neg.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like AAPL has to save China all by itself??

But is it enough to reverse the trend??


----------



## Uncle Festivus

China myths busted..........

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/mark-kitto-youll-never-be-chinese-leaving-china/


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-res...e-stocks-looking-like-a-bargain/#.UIbr-G88DTo

*Chinese Stocks Looking Like a Bargain*

October 22, 2012
excerpt 







> In fact, Pareto Securities found that Chinese implied oil demand came in at an all-time high of 9.8 million barrels per day in September.




etc etc


----------



## notting

Good link Uncle.

Pitty you will not find that kind of article in the Murdoch(China's Wh@re) press.

The power struggles seems to now be going after Wen Jiabao, by allowing this kind of thing to leak.
-http://www.cnbc.com/id/49561942/

I'd say it's in retaliation to Bo's take down.

I hope they don't get Wen, he was one of the better ones, despite the riches.  He didn't rise to the top by being a most effective slaughterer and torturer of dissent.  Not like machine gun Hu - monster.



> The apparent efforts to conceal the wealth reflect the highly charged politics surrounding the country’s ruling elite, many of whom are also enormously wealthy but reluctant to draw attention to their riches. When Bloomberg News reported in June that the extended family of Vice President Xi Jinping, set to become China’s next president, had amassed hundreds of millions of dollars in assets, the Chinese government blocked access inside the country to the Bloomberg Web site.
> 
> “In the senior leadership, there’s no family that doesn’t have these problems,” said a former government colleague of Wen Jiabao who has known him for more than 20 years and who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “His enemies are intentionally trying to smear him by letting this leak out.”




And Jules 







> In fact, Pareto Securities found that Chinese implied oil demand came in at an all-time high of 9.8 million barrels per day in September.



That's simply because they are stocking up whilst prices are down.
Everyone is now thinking China has bottomed.  Could be the case whilst it holds together.


----------



## notting

minwa said:


> A interesting read on China's economy...
> Yes it is a sales page for a $89 report but it has good info on China so please ignore the buy button. I get their reports for free and they provide interesting research but no real trading advice there, you will be late following their recommendations. You have been warned.




SPAM.:bad:


----------



## Joules MM1

*China's Economy Will Overtake US In The Next Four Years, Says OECD*
Josephine Moulds, The Guardian

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-chinas-economy-will-overtake-us-2012-11#ixzz2Bj0Z9FLf

------------------------------------------------------------------

*China’s growing copper fetish*
David Keohane | Nov 08 15:24

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/08/1253141/chinas-growing-copper-fetish/


----------



## notting

We are the hostile West:



> Zhu told me that ''Western values'' like democracy, human rights and freedom are self-serving constructs of the West's hegemonic capitalist class. These ideological weapons are dressed up as ''universal values'' and deployed to infiltrate and brainwash Chinese people via non-government organisations, media platforms and the children of top leaders. This, he said, is the root cause of the ideological warfare that is now raging across China. ''Universal values and red culture are in conflict,'' said Zhu.
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/the-fear-of-freedom-20121110-294yp.html#ixzz2BtmoyI8e


----------



## notting

Worth a listen.
[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000127412&play=1[/video]

Suddenly people are starting to talk about China in a far more realistic light, just because of the power transition and recent dip in it's growth reporting and demand weakening.
Wierd.


----------



## notting

Although two of the worlds most hideous and evil creatures - Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, will still be pulling the strings behind the scenes in China, I think the new leadership will be much better and hopefully bring a change to the miserable inhuman slaveopoly.

I actually like the look of Xi Jinping!!

I am fearful, however, that the environmental destruction and inhumane policies, that have brought China to its current state, may come home to roost on the status quo, which sadly, may make poor old Xi Jinping an unfortunate and underserving victim and target of the invigerated peoples revenge!

I hope not.  

I hope some gradual and good change can arrive but it's hard to see how the citizens can be happy living in a poisoned land.

But, any way, I feel a change of heart for the moment.


----------



## Joules MM1

nominally, china been on a steady stock decline since the bounce high in jul 2009 .......how about Singapore?
*
Singapore GDP Revised To -5.9% In Q3 *

excerpt



> The manufacturing sector fell 9.6 percent on quarter, following flat growth in the preceding quarter. This was largely due to contraction in the electronics manufacturing cluster, the MTI said. On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector declined 0.8 percent, compared to the 4.6 percent expansion in the previous quarter.
> 
> The construction sector climbed 7.7 percent on year, slowing from 12.3 percent in the preceding quarter. On a quarterly basis, the sector contracted by an annualized rate of 17.2 percent, due to a decline in private sector building activities.




http://www.rttnews.com/2007729/singapore-gdp-revised-to-5-9-in-q3.aspx#.UKm4CrAJl7w.twitter


----------



## notting

Currently sticking it's head down through the ground asking the question -
Am I a basket case or not?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

notting said:


> Currently sticking it's head down through the ground asking the question -
> Am I a basket case or not?
> 
> 
> View attachment 49709




Some support to your double bottom...

http://www.theage.com.au/business/w...-hits-13month-high-survey-20121122-29rrz.html

Nice to see this....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

It would be better if the 'recovery' was organic, but just like every other central bank has done, it will rely on continued 'support'? 



> Even before the congress, the central bank had moved to ease liquidity by *pumping short-term cash into money markets* rather than resorting to the interest rate cuts or reduction in banks' required reserve ratios that many investors had expected.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> It would be better if the 'recovery' was organic, but just like every other central bank has done, it will rely on continued 'support'?




Yes and with so much intrenched evil in the Chinese communist dictatorship the risks are still huge and hard  to see ever being overcome in a peaceful organic way!
We should never compromise basic human rights etc for business or out of fear of upsetting them, that's just pathetic.  
They have no hesitation to treat us any way they can and they have no scruples about the lengths they will go to.
What ever they feel they can get away with they will do it without conscience.  
They think human rights are a political weapon!
That's like the Chinese saying we are actually inhumane - inhuman.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/pressure-mounts-on-carr-over-china-rights-abuses-20121124-2a0d6.html


----------



## >Apocalypto<

notting said:


> Yes and with so much intrenched evil in the Chinese communist dictatorship the risks are still huge and hard  to see ever being overcome in a peaceful organic way!
> We should never compromise basic human rights etc for business or out of fear of upsetting them, that's just pathetic.
> They have no hesitation to treat us any way they can and they have no scruples about the lengths they will go to.
> What ever they feel they can get away with they will do it without conscience.
> They think human rights are a political weapon!
> That's like the Chinese saying we are actually inhumane - inhuman.
> http://www.theage.com.au/world/pressure-mounts-on-carr-over-china-rights-abuses-20121124-2a0d6.html




ummm i think you're a little mad.

so its ok for us western nations including Australia to arrest people without charge send them to a prison camp in different part of the world hold them with out charge, in full shackles and solitary confinement for over 5 years then say ok your not a threat you can go home now. 

Camp x ray, alot of innocent people plucked from their countries and taken there, including one Australian. And we western people can comment on how China acts... please give me a break.

clean up your own back yard before you start to look at others Notting, now don't get me started on how we white Australians have and still treat the Koori people. Yeh the Chinese are monsters.... 

Piss poor


----------



## notting

What's amazing about the cops testimony is that there is not conscience with respect to the fact that they were happy to do to the citiziens what is now being done to them.  It's like it's never even crossed their minds that it's wrong for them to have been imposing the housing traps and far worse horror on the people
It's only no good now because it's the cops copping it from the communist princelings.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

notting said:


> Yes and with so much intrenched evil in the Chinese communist dictatorship the risks are still huge and hard  to see ever being overcome in a peaceful organic way!
> We should never compromise basic human rights etc for business or out of fear of upsetting them, that's just pathetic.
> They have no hesitation to treat us any way they can and they have no scruples about the lengths they will go to.
> What ever they feel they can get away with they will do it without conscience.
> They think human rights are a political weapon!
> That's like the Chinese saying we are actually inhumane - inhuman.
> http://www.theage.com.au/world/pressure-mounts-on-carr-over-china-rights-abuses-20121124-2a0d6.html




Thanks notting.

The China Bull will not end in our lifetime.

For reasons I will not go in to, the Chinese are "different".

Just as are the Japanese.

Their present expansion has two classes of people, slaves and owners.

The latter are children and descendants of the revolution and the post 1949 leaders. They are in charge. what they say goes.

The slaves either work, live and die, or can't get a job if they object, and die earlier. 

It is a softer form of the slave culture that exists in North Korea.

But, hey, it works. Presently they are the happiest slaves in Asia. I spoke to a few recently on holiday in Cairns, and they only talked about money, which is the new socialism in China.

The Japanese are quite envious of them, for obvious reasons.

The China Bull has not ended, because the slaves are happy, and the owners control, totally.

It works and will continue to work until the owners undo themselves.

gg


----------



## notting

Hi GG,

Good to see you getting back in the swing.

I agree with much of what you said.

Apart from a few little things.



Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is a softer form of the slave culture that exists in North Korea.




Make no mistake North Korea is China!!!
Everything North Korea does is directed out of China.
Remembering China was pretending to be chastising North Korea for it's misile guiding satallight launch. China looks to have differences with North Korea, as a way of trying to sucker the international community into thinking it is not North Korea, and is not involved.  
At the same time it was *histerical whatching this unfold *and a classic give away as China was at the same time trying to look like it was chastising North Korea-



> China’s state-run media! failed to recognise the joke of a western satirical magazine called The Onion which ran a piece naming the North Korean dictator “sexiest man alive.”  China’s Communist Party news site totally ran with it with a 55-page photo spread of Kim Jong-Un, The Chinese believed that the Onion had seriously named him "The Sexiest Man Alive".  China's Daily quickly withdrew the story when they realised The Onion was making a sarcastic joke!!







One of the 55 photoes, didn't take The Chinese Daily too long to get these photos out there.  Doesn't take too much of a brain to wonder how the Chinese had so many glorifying photos of the new puppet at the ready!!!!



> Quoting the Onion's spoof report, the Chinese newspaper wrote: "With his devastatingly handsome, round face, his boyish charm and his strong, sturdy frame, this Pyongyang-bred heartthrob is every woman's dream come true." - China Peoples Daily







Garpal Gumnut said:


> But, hey, it works. Presently they are the happiest slaves in Asia. I spoke to a few recently on holiday in Cairns, and they only talked about money, which is the new socialism in China. It works and will continue to work until the owners undo themselves.




Believe me, the slaves are not the ones touring in Cairns,  The ones with enough priveledge to get out and tour are part of the so called rising middle class, who are still conected.

It's true that China's butal rulers have used and controlled their own people since time immamorial, however, with globalisation and social networking revolutions it's going to be very very hard to avoid the inevatable failing of that model.  It will come down to simple economics when they realise the genius in being open and free and the prosperity that follows.  
They do not want to be left behind.  
Their back up North Korean model aint going too well.


----------



## notting

I can't believe Hu is saying "China is now ready to support global growth."  As if their little dictator club forcing itself on the people gives  a **** about anything about the world apart from their own increase in control and power over it.
The world is recovering with no thanks to them, they put the breaks  on when things were looking bleak to try to tip the world over the edge.
Like a coward seeing sudden strength in  someone he was  bullying suddenly saying, 'I'm trying to help you, I am your friend,' out of fear for what might be the repercussions for what he has done when he felt more powerful.
When Hu opens his horrid little mouth it's like poison entering the atmosphere.

On the other hand all the noises I hear from the new leader and his body language just sound and seem so much better.  
This could be very good.
It's so overdue, a real opening up and sense of humanity and universality would be so good for China and the world.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> The world is recovering with no thanks to them, they put the breaks  on when things were looking bleak to try to tip the world over the edge.




Um, no, they did the same as everybody else - they printed up some $800BILLION to stimulate. They have recently opened the taps again but it's only bought them 2 points (into expansion) on the latest HSBC manufacturing PMI data. Although the official PMI was worse-than-expectations at unchanged.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Um, no, they did the same as everybody else - they printed up some $800BILLION to stimulate




No. That was during GFC part one. I'm talking about during more recent Euro crises and US impas . China put the breaks on as soon as they new they were OK for the moment.


----------



## So_Cynical

Ok so with the latest China data can we agree that a soft landing has been achieved and that the China Bull is ready to run again?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> No. That was during GFC part one. I'm talking about during more recent Euro crises and US impas . China put the breaks on as soon as they new they were OK for the moment.




I think they were trying to stop the bubbles bursting - they more than anyone have more to lose if the rest of the world stays in recession.



So_Cynical said:


> Ok so with the latest China data can we agree that a soft landing has been achieved and that the China Bull is ready to run again?




PMI was unchanged from previous month, barely breaking into expansion for the last 12 months - not much of start to a new bull? As long as they keep pumping the liquidity they may be able to keep the PMI and GDP from tanking...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A 'soft landing' based on even more dodgy debt, hidden write offs & a shadow financial system with massive amounts of underwater loans?



> Xi and his team are inheriting an economy *more leveraged* than the one President Hu Jintao took over in 2003. Government, corporate and consumer *debt rose last year by 15 percentage points to an estimated 206 percent of GDP*, Standard Chartered said in a November report. In March 2003 it stood at 150 percent.
> 
> Borrowers are using some new loans to “plaster over *non-performing* credits” while so-called shadow banking is growing too fast, said economists led by Stephen Green. They estimated that a bad-loan ratio of 12 percent would erase the banking industry’s 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in capital.
> 
> Lending by so-called trust companies surged five times to 1.04 trillion yuan in the first 11 months compared with the whole of 2011. A “large part” of the sector’s lending is to *higher-risk entities* including local government investment vehicles and property developers that don’t have access to bank loans, the International Monetary Fund said in its Global Financial Stability Report in October.
> 
> ‘Extremely Reluctant’
> 
> “Lots and lots of projects have been approved to stimulate this economy,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “*The banks are extremely reluctant to lend to them and that says a lot about what they really know about credit risk in this country*.”




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/china-poised-for-2013-rebound-as-debt-risks-rise-for-xi.html


----------



## notting

This is becomeing quite an interesting study in Anthropology or is it Sociapathology.




http://www.skynews.com.au/world/article.aspx?id=835550

More Coal people.

We gonna be the biggest in just 5 years time according to state media.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Anyone who has ever been to China will tell you that the "bull" has a long way to go.

Industries, Communist officials, Provinces and Governors have their necks on it's continuance.

It is even a threat to the Communist Cadres at the top.

They cannot stop it.

They will be necked.

The genie is out.

gg


----------



## notting

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Anyone who has ever been to China will tell you that the "bull" has a long way to go.
> 
> Industries, Communist officials, Provinces and Governors have their necks on it's continuance.
> 
> It is even a threat to the Communist Cadres at the top.
> 
> They cannot stop it.
> 
> They will be necked.
> 
> The genie is out.
> 
> gg




Yes. The progress is simply *breathtaking*!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

notting said:


> Yes. The progress is simply *breathtaking*!




+1

lol

gg


----------



## CanOz

Its particularly bad this year actually. We are living part time near Taiyuan, one of the worst cities. Luckily we live up in the mountains about 40 km north. The air quality here is very good, clear and fresh. The city is very bad though. From the aircraft it looks like a big brown cloud. Also, when we live down south at our home there, we live about 60 km outside Shanghai, so the air quality is much better. Occasionally we get an auto exhaust odor.

The worst is the north in Winter....but its the best in the summer. The communal heating is all coal fired. Its warm inside, but at a cost.

CanOz


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

CanOz said:


> Its particularly bad this year actually. We are living part time near Taiyuan, one of the worst cities. Luckily we live up in the mountains about 40 km north. The air quality here is very good, clear and fresh. The city is very bad though. From the aircraft it looks like a big brown cloud. Also, when we live down south at our home there, we live about 60 km outside Shanghai, so the air quality is much better. Occasionally we get an auto exhaust odor.
> 
> The worst is the north in Winter....but its the best in the summer. The communal heating is all coal fired. Its warm inside, but at a cost.
> 
> CanOz




Tell that to the grandson or daughter of a peasant toiling and starving in a paddy field 50 years ago under Mao.

Memories are better for survivors.

It will continue imo.

gg


----------



## CanOz

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Tell that to the grandson or daughter of a peasant toiling and starving in a paddy field 50 years ago under Mao.
> 
> Memories are better for survivors.
> 
> It will continue imo.
> 
> gg




What, you mean my wife?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

CanOz said:


> What, you mean my wife?




Let's keep em out of this argument, though a trumping point. On second thoughts, what of her take on it?











gg


----------



## CanOz

LOL...


----------



## Trembling Hand

China plans bond overhaul to fund $6 trillion urbanization


----------



## Uncle Festivus

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n


----------



## notting

What the Chinese have tried to do up till now is create the illusion of a booming economy on the back of slavery and currency manipulation.
What they will try to do now is get the west to pay for the last leg of building China, that is, fund the lower end housing build. 







> China plans major bond market reform to raise the money the ruling Communist Party needs for a 40 trillion yuan ($6.4 trillion) urbanization program to buoy economic growth and close a chasm between the country's urban rich and rural poor.







> "The focus should not just be on construction. They should also focus on creating a market," the diplomat said. "If they fail to create a market, they will end up with an urban poor much worse off than the rural poor."




The focus is on construction for a reason, they don't for a minute think they have to worry about a real economy or the people.
They can mow them down ala Tiananmen square or just start more international agitation to keep the peoples focus and anger on other countries.

I hope the west is not stupid enough to invest in the last leg of 'the plan.'

The Chinese figure that if this last leg is achieved, they will have built China, they will have also have built it's military and power in the world to attack when the illusion is seen through.  That way they don't have to pay any international bills or continue to cooperate with international monetary policy and so forth they just do whatever they want which is unimaginably horrible - enslavement, torcher, environmental destruction, far more concentration camps than Nazi Germany - genocide. Examples – Turkistan, Uighur, Tibet.  Look into the horrors and hells they have created there, even within their own original borders concentration camps full of dissecendent like the 20 million falun gong practitioners who were seen as a threat because they would not be corruptable.

China is actively gunning for Taiwan, Burma, Laos, Northern India, Vietnam, Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Ryukyu Islands, 300 islands of the South China, East China and Yellow Seas, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Taiwan, South Kazakhstan, the Afghan province of Bahdashan, Transbaikalia and the Far East to South Okhotsk.  
The Chinese have even been attacking US companies unabatedly all over the world and even started on US infrastructure with hacking attacks. This caused one of the first public rebukes from the US administration.  They fell short of calling it an act of war.  Because no one wants that not even China, yet.  But really, what else is that?


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> China plans bond overhaul to fund $6 trillion urbanization





Uncle Festivus said:


> http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n




Jesse, wonder what the black swan just might be?
Ask an emerging minority Chinese real-estate owner - What happens to empty real estate? – blank stare. 
They think it’s like buying gold bars.
What happens when elevator breaks?  There’s no body corporate - dunno.
Maintenance? – dunno.
You’d wanna hope it weathers well, wouldn’t want it to be, hhmm lets see - made in China?
10.6 billion sq of property *under development* in China* now* on top of the existing *mega ghost cities*.
The majority of China bank debt is borrowed by developers and owners of that real estate.
It is something the world has never seen before.
It’s not a real estate bubble, it’s a real-estate fricken Hindenburg loaded with H bombs. 
I tell you this, no one, but no one, should buy a Chinese bond when they are offered.


----------



## notting

It's probably not yet time to say I told you so.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100562024

What got me a little more concerned was that about a week ago the Chinese were saying they were going to abandon growth at all costs policy for more sustainable undertakings.

But the new premier Li Keqiang sounds like he has abandoned that idea already, saying, ' growth was the top priority for his government.'


----------



## MR.

Audio:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-...m-alarming-corporate/4726464?section=business


----------



## FlyingFox

This is not looking good, for China or for Australia. Amazes me how people don't see these things coming ...


----------



## CanOz

FlyingFox said:


> This is not looking good, for China or for Australia. Amazes me how people don't see these things coming ...




People see them coming, but its human nature to believe that the current state will continue forever. History is littered with wrecked bubbles. That's what we do, Inflate, bust, reflate, bust....

CanOz


----------



## FlyingFox

CanOz said:


> People see them coming, but its human nature to believe that the current state will continue forever. History is littered with wrecked bubbles. That's what we do, Inflate, bust, reflate, bust....
> 
> CanOz




True ... we let our vested interest get in the way of seeing the facts. Doesn't help that all the media and government sources are giving mixed signals.


----------



## Ann

First the disclosure: I have substantial money tied up in China.


I think China is in its infancy and hasn't even stood up yet. I think China has yet to show us its amazing minds and abilities.
A new economy needs to crawl, then stand and then walk. 

I say look to the Baltic Dry Index for the lead to China.


----------



## FlyingFox

Ann said:


> First the disclosure: I have substantial money tied up in China.
> 
> 
> I think China is in its infancy and hasn't even stood up yet. I think China has yet to show us its amazing minds and abilities.
> A new economy needs to crawl, then stand and then walk.




What makes you say that?


----------



## Ann

FlyingFox said:


> What makes you say that?




There are effectively five levels of local government in China; the province, prefecture, county, township, and village.

There have been calls to reduce the size of the provinces. The goal is to reduce administration and so doing reduce the amount of corruption as well as the number of government workers, in order to lower the budget.

Once China can form itself into a single workable unit instead of the fractured provinces it suffers now then it is likely to be "united we stand, no longer divided we fall". When that happens and I believe it will, we have a massive power house of dedicated workers with a winner's attidude focused on a single end.

Here are some Chinese proverbs. If you can read these and still think China has had its run..think again!



_40 Chinese Proverbs for Entrepreneurship


Some Chinese proverbs are literary while others humbly originated from families and commoners of Ancient China. I have filtered through a wealth of Chinese proverbs and selected 40 that are of special interest to entrepreneurs.

Below each proverb I offer a brief explanation of a how you can apply this ancient wisdom to your entrepreneurial aspirations.

Chinese Proverbs

1. “In every crisis, there is opportunity.”

Most entrepreneurial ventures arise from a solving a problem. If you are faced with a problem, craft a solution and sell that solution to others. As an interesting side note, it’s a common misconception that the word crisis and opportunity mean the same thing in the ancient Chinese language. This misconception initially gained momentum when John F. Kennedy incorrectly cited it in a speech in 1959. (source: smallbusiness411.org)

2. “Sow a thought, reap an action; sow an action, reap a habit; sow a habit, reap a character; sow a character, reap a destiny.”

Entrepreneurship starts with an idea and ends with a destiny. You craft your destiny with your actions, habits and character. You make your destiny, it doesn’t make you.

3. “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”

Aside from 20 years ago, there is no better time to start a business than today.

4. “If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want one hundred years of prosperity, grow people.”

The goal of every entrepreneur should be to start a business and find capable people to run the business so that they don’t have to.

5. “A bad workman blames his tools.”

A bad entrepreneur places blame on someone or something else when things go bad. First and foremost, you should hold yourself accountable for a negative outcome of your business.

6. “A closed mind is like a closed book; just a block of wood.”

As an entrepreneur you always have to be open to new opportunities. If you aren’t actively looking for new ways to make your business more innovative, you won’t be very successful as an entrepreneur.

7. “A fall into a ditch makes you wiser.”

When bad things happen, a good entrepreneur learns from them.

8. “A fly before his own eye is bigger than an elephant in the next field.”

When you focus only on the opportunities that are right in front of you, you might miss the larger ones that take effort to find.

9. “A jade stone is useless before it is processed; a man is good-for-nothing until he is educated.”

A strong education is often the foundation of a strong business. The more you know about entrepreneurship, the more equipped you will be to face its various challenges.

10. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”

Every entrepreneur in the history of the world started their business with a single action.

11. “A person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the man doing it.”

As an entrepreneur, you will undoubtedly encounter people who will doubt you. Don’t let those people get in your way. Instead, use their doubt as motivation.

12. “A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study.”

You can learn a lot from talking to experienced entrepreneurs. They have been through the process and can teach you more than most any book.

13. “All cats love fish but fear to wet their paws.”

All people love to make money but few people pursue entrepreneurship because it’s full of challenges and uncomfortable risks.

14. “Cheap things are not good, good things are not cheap.”

As a small business owner, always focus on providing quality.

15. “Customers are jade; merchandise is grass.”

What good is a business without customers? You should value your customers more than any other aspect of your business.

16. “Defeat isn’t bitter if you don’t swallow it.”

You will encounter setbacks, but don’t let those setbacks defeat you.

17. “Defer not till to-morrow what may be done to-day.”

One of the most challenging things for an entrepreneur is simply getting things done. According to numerous entrepreneurs I have spoken with, procrastination is one of the largest causes of failure in new businesses.

18. “Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched.”

Though a good entrepreneur isn’t afraid to take risks, never rely too heavily on projections of profitability, success in a certain market, etc. A good entrepreneur always considers, and has a plan for, the worst-case scenario.

19. “Don’t stand by the water and long for fish; go home and weave a net.”

Instead of complaining about how you aren’t making much money, find new ways to earn it.

20. “Easy to run downhill, much puffing to run up.”

It’s easy to run a business when the going is good, but the true test of an entrepreneur is how he or she behaves when faced with challenges. As the current economic climate makes overwhelmingly clear, every market has its ups and downs.

21. “Failing to plan is planning to fail.”

This one is so clear, it requires no explanation.

22. “Falling hurts least those who fly low.”

The less amount of money you spend, the less it will hurt if your business fails. It’s common for entrepreneurs to bootstrap the initial costs of their business. Bootstrapping means doing whatever you can to spend as little as possible.

23. “If a thing’s worth doing, it’s worth doing well.”

If you’re going to put effort into starting a business, then make sure you put 100% effort into every aspect of your business.

24. “If you get up one more time than you fall you will make it through.”

When you get knocked down, get back up. If you don’t get back up, your business will fail.

25. “If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.”

When you get to the point of hiring employees; the more you pay, the higher quality effort you will receive.

26. “It’s as difficult to be rich without bragging as it is to be poor without complaining.”

As an entrepreneur, it’s important to remain humble, especially when you’re rich. Humility is difficult to maintain when things are going well.

27. “Learning is a treasure that will follow its owner everywhere.”

Learn from your business and it’s something you will never lose.

28. “Make happy those who are near, and those who are far will come.”

If you make your customers happy, they will talk and those they talk to may become new customers.

29. “Patience is a virtue.”

Having patience with your business is essential to your success. Very few businesses are profitable in their first year.

30. “Rich not gaudy.”

When you become rich, don’t become gaudy, or tastelessly flashy.

31. “Teachers open the door. You enter by yourself.”

Being taught something will only get you so far. You must independently apply that learning to become successful.

32. “The diamond cannot be polished without friction, nor the man perfected without trials.”

You will encounter trials and tribulations as a business owner, but these trials and tribulations will mold you into a better entrepreneur.

33. “The emperor is rich, but he cannot buy one extra year.”

Your business and the money it generates are not the most important things in your life.

34. “The loftiest towers rise from the ground.”

Even the most successful businesses in the world started with the conception and implementation of an idea.

35. “The palest ink is better than the best memory.”

When you conceive an idea on how to improve your business, write it down!

36. “There are two perfectly good men, one dead, and the other unborn.”

No one is perfect. Always be open to learning from other people.

37. “To open a shop is easy, to keep it open is an art.”

Starting a business is simple in comparison to keeping it.

38. “We all like lamb; each has a different way of cooking it.”

Entrepreneurship is like an art: there is not always a right and wrong way of pursuing your business goals. Let your personal taste and style as an entrepreneur be your strength.

39. “Who is not satisfied with himself will grow; who is not sure of his own correctness will learn many things.”

Rememer you don’t know everything. Actively seek out advice and information, and you will learn.

40. “A smile will gain you ten more years of life.”

What’s the point in owning a business if you’re not having fun with it? If your business doesn’t make you smile, then it’s the wrong business for you._


----------



## CanOz

Ann said:


> I say look to the Baltic Dry Index for the lead to China.




Agree that this is very handy as China is responsible for a heck of allot of sea freight, in and out.

Baltic Dry Index....

It needs some love Ann...


----------



## Ann

CanOz said:


> Agree that this is very handy as China is responsible for a heck of allot of sea freight, in and out.
> 
> Baltic Dry Index....
> 
> It needs some love Ann...




It most certainly does CanOz and I watch it lovingly every week side by side with the Shanghai Composite which is almost step by step at the moment with the BDI.


----------



## FlyingFox

Ann said:


> There are effectively five levels of local government in China; the province, prefecture, county, township, and village.
> 
> There have been calls to reduce the size of the provinces. The goal is to reduce administration and so doing reduce the amount of corruption as well as the number of government workers, in order to lower the budget.
> 
> Once China can form itself into a single workable unit instead of the fractured provinces it suffers now then it is likely to be "united we stand, no longer divided we fall". When that happens and I believe it will, we have a massive power house of dedicated workers with a winner's attidude focused on a single end.
> 
> Here are some Chinese proverbs. If you can read these and still think China has had its run..think again!





Hi Ann,

I agree with your comments re the amalgamation of governments. If/when this happens, it will be very good for the economy. The Chinese economy has a lot of things going for it but by no means is it in it's infancy. You don't get that after a couple of decades of double digit growth.

Moreover it is in need of structural reform. Until this point it was a export and local infrastructure building based economy, both of which have changed. Exports are being challenged by other countries and they have already mis allocated a lot of the GDP into underutilized infrastructure (see the latest 60 minutes video) projects. Even local entrepreneurs are calling a housing bubble; as yet unheard of.

As for the BDI, current increses can just as easily be attributed to QE in Japan, the worlds third largest economy. It s however still a magnitude lower than at it's peaks...like CanOz said, needs love...

Speaking of proverbs,

"Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly"


----------



## Uncle Festivus

40 Chinese Proverbs for Entrepreneurship

1 capitalist word for China - debt 

First the facts - while growth in the first quarter cooled to 7.7 per cent from 8.1 per cent a year ago, this was achieved in part courtesy of a 58 per cent bump in aggregate credit. On that basis, every dollar borrowed in China is now producing only 60 per cent of the growth it would have generated a year ago.

The strong implication is that loans aren't being repaid but are being rolled into new loans, a classic credit bubble sign.

New research from the banking giant Societe Generale estimates that Chinese companies have debts that are 1.5 times the size of the nation's annual economic output.

Even worse, in a situation similar to a Ponzi scheme, up to a third of these companies are borrowing more money just to pay the interest on existing debts.

Estimates are that China's provinces, cities, regions and villages owe a collective $US3 trillion.

China’s government debt is taking up a greater portion of the national GDP but not yet worrisome, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.  China’s government debt is now 50% of GDP, up from 40% in 2012 and 37.8% in 2011.


----------



## Ann

Uncle Festivus said:


> 40 Chinese Proverbs for Entrepreneurship
> 
> 1 capitalist word for China - debt
> 
> 
> The strong implication is that loans aren't being repaid but are being rolled into new loans, a classic credit bubble sign.




Uncle Festivus I am wondering if this debt is actually a growing yuen carry trade particularly now the Chinese government is allowing non-financial firms the right to issue dollar-denominated bonds. Just look at the coupon, not hard to work up a decent carry trade on this lot! http://em.cbonds.com/countries/China-bond  Just a thought!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Ann said:


> Uncle Festivus I am wondering if this debt is actually a growing yuen carry trade particularly now the Chinese government is allowing non-financial firms the right to issue dollar-denominated bonds. Just look at the coupon, not hard to work up a decent carry trade on this lot! http://em.cbonds.com/countries/China-bond  Just a thought!




It's all carry trades with global QE?


----------



## Aussiejeff

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's all carry trades with global QE?




Indeed. The filthy rich carry all the loot back to their caves while the filthy poor carry all the debt back to theirs.

Sounds fair....


----------



## explod

to the last two posts.

A clear idea is in "Currency Wars" Rickards 2011

Learning and then accepting how corrupt the system is, is like learning a new language.  Not able to be explained in a few words, in my view.


----------



## Aussiejeff

This should end well.....



> *The European Union imposed tariffs as high as 67.9 percent on solar panels from China in the largest EU commercial dispute of its kind*, seeking to help revive a withering industry in Europe.
> The duties punish Chinese manufacturers of solar panels for allegedly selling them in the 27-nation EU below cost, a practice known as dumping. Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., Wuxi Suntech Power Co. and Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co. are among the more than 100 companies targeted.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/*eu-hits-china-with-solar-panel-duties-in-dumping-dispute*.html

Ramping up from Currency War to Trade War now?


----------



## CanOz

Aussiejeff said:


> This should end well.....
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/*eu-hits-china-with-solar-panel-duties-in-dumping-dispute*.html
> 
> Ramping up from Currency War to Trade War now?





I still think its odd that selling solar panels below cost is a bad idea, Unviable long term sure, no matter who produces them. It can only be a good thing for renewable energy...

CanOz


----------



## FlyingFox

Aussiejeff said:


> This should end well.....
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/*eu-hits-china-with-solar-panel-duties-in-dumping-dispute*.html
> 
> Ramping up from Currency War to Trade War now?




Already has been a few high profile bond defaults in the solar sector with talks of bailouts.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> I still think its odd that selling solar panels below cost is a bad idea, Unviable long term sure, no matter who produces them. It can only be a good thing for renewable energy...
> 
> CanOz




The problem is that the Chinese panels are starting to fail big time, but the companies have already gone out of business so no 25 year promise.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

1.“In every crisis, there is opportunity.”
2.“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”
3.If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain. If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees. If you want one hundred years of prosperity, grow people.”
4.“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
5 “A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study.”
6. “Patience is a virtue.”
7. “A smile will gain you ten more years of life.”

Ann 

Particularly I like above Chinese proverbs.

What I feel about emerging world is that their economy has slow down little bit when compare with their rapid growth period. There are stages in economic development in any country. No country will have growth or slow down almost every year. In some period some countries will have higher inflation, higher exchange rate, higher unemployment and slower growth. In some period they will have lower inflation higher growth and higher employment. China and other emerging world will wake up in the long run again. On the other hand some frontier countries are having higher growth rate now due to increased activities such as infrastructure development, foreign investment and increased industry base. 

One thing we should not forget about population in China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other frontier markets in Asia. Increased number of mouths in Asia in the future means more demand for meat, milk, corn, oil, rice, vegetable, fruits,spice commodities, tea, coffee, soft drinks from Asia in the coming decade. For example Asia pacific region will drink more tea than Middle East and Russia in the coming decade. Tea market will expand in the pacific region in the coming years. We can get some idea why do Starbuck want to do for tea what did they do for coffee. They are expanding their businesses countries such as India and China now.

Similarly there will be increased demand for coal, timber, rubber, palm oil, natural gas, oil, salt and other commodities etc from China and rest of the Asia due to increased economic activities in the long run.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## FlyingFox

MARKETWINNER said:


> What I feel about emerging world is that their economy has slow down little bit when compare with their rapid growth period. There are stages in economic development in any country. No country will have growth or slow down almost every year. In some period some countries will have higher inflation, higher exchange rate, higher unemployment and slower growth. In some period they will have lower inflation higher growth and higher employment. China and other emerging world will wake up in the long run again.




+1 



MARKETWINNER said:


> On the other hand some frontier countries are having higher growth rate now due to increased activities such as infrastructure development, foreign investment and increased industry base.




Some more so than others. Wouldn't call China a frontier economy.



MARKETWINNER said:


> One thing we should not forget about population in China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other frontier markets in Asia. Increased number of mouths in Asia in the future means more demand for meat, milk, corn, oil, rice, vegetable, fruits,spice commodities, tea, coffee, soft drinks from Asia in the coming decade. For example Asia pacific region will drink more tea than Middle East and Russia in the coming decade. Tea market will expand in the pacific region in the coming years. We can get some idea why do Starbuck want to do for tea what did they do for coffee. They are expanding their businesses countries such as India and China now.
> 
> Similarly there will be increased demand for coal, timber, rubber, palm oil, natural gas, oil, salt and other commodities etc from China and rest of the Asia due to increased economic activities in the long run.
> 
> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions




At current trends the population of China is not going anywhere in a hurry. By most estimates, the Chinese population will be smaller in 2100 than today. The real frontier economies are those of Africa.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Looks like the jig is up for dodgy Chinese data? The last few data prints just stretched the credibility of official data  to the point where even the Chinese had to go back and re-do the sums, and surprise, exports came in vastly lower. And todays prints we get more of the same trend with exports down 3.1%, and crude oil imports down 1.4% in the first half - China is contracting. Probably worth another 200pts up for the Dow no less 

And a small matter of the interbank rate and liquidity crunch still unfolding......

Now if only the US could do a mea culpa too.......with housing and employment.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well they are not mucking around here,

From the official data dudes,



> Export conditions look grim for the 3rd quarter




!


----------



## Aussiejeff

Trembling Hand said:


> Well they are not mucking around here,
> 
> From the official data dudes,
> 
> 
> 
> !




Wonder how this 1st tranche of enforced elimination of industry over-production by Chines authorities will affect us economically? Seems the cut backs cover just about every "resources boom" industry the Oz gummint hangs its hat on? 

With the time for implementation of 1st phase being rather urgent (coincidentally end of Sep 2013...better hurry up Kevvie baby!), by Xmas 2013 OzEcon production figures might start looking a tad bleak?? :1zhelp:
	

		
			
		

		
	





Might be better tactic for Team KRudd to ensure an Abbott victory so the Libs wear the blame for a diving economy?


----------



## drsmith

A wild ride in China today.

4% up, then 4% down on the SSE Composite Index to end not far from where it started.


----------



## havaiana

drsmith said:


> A wild ride in China today.
> 
> 4% up, then 4% down on the SSE Composite Index to end not far from where it started.




Move up was confirmed as a fat finger, seems it was an arb bot gone wild

If you google "Everbright Securities fat finger" or something along those lines you will find the full details

Edit: last article I was reading about said rumour was that they were not going to roll back the trades either, so it seems that everbright are not looking so bright at the moment. Pity they weren't called evergreen, would be one-liners galore


----------



## notting

It will be hard to point the finger at foreign companies for this particular corruption - 

Chinese lies may add $1 trillion to Chinese economy:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100967912





> "If inflation data is not accurate, or is willfully fraudulent, as appears to be the case, it will impact many other areas of economic and financial data leading to large disparities over time," said Balding. "It is disturbing that a statistical body would so obviously manipulate and produce blatantly fraudulent data."






> "The claim that the housing component of CPI grew by less than 10 percent between 2000 and 2011 is nothing less than comical," Professor Balding wrote.


----------



## notting

drsmith said:


> A wild ride in China today.
> 
> 4% up, then 4% down on the SSE Composite Index to end not far from where it started.




I liked this rumour the most: 







> Chinese government was trying to boost the index to stop traders from shorting the market.




In other words - 

"Short us and we will flush you out any time we feel like it.  Understand?"  (We will also make it look like a trading error so as not to be seen breaking any local or international laws.  We have the power - China Everbright Securities!")

As the house starts to fall down, it will be interesting times indeed.


----------



## havaiana

notting said:


> I liked this rumour the most:
> 
> In other words -
> 
> "Short us and we will flush you out any time we feel like it.  Understand?"  (We will also make it look like a trading error so as not to be seen breaking any local or international laws.  We have the power - China Everbright Securities!")
> 
> As the house starts to fall down, it will be interesting times indeed.




Rumour doesn't make sense imo, the Everbright incident is more likely to make traders go short. Especially when you consider they didn't let them break the trades


----------



## skyQuake

havaiana said:


> Rumour doesn't make sense imo, the Everbright incident is more likely to make traders go short. Especially when you consider they didn't let them break the trades




Agree, they're partially hedged with a few thousand short index contracts.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Uncle Festivus said:


> There appears to be emerging signs that China has not de-coupled from the rest of the worlds problems. Internal rampant inflation and pressure on food supplies from a cold snap may  temper the  rate of growth, with local implications/ramifications for Australia?
> 
> Food commodities the next/current global bull market perhaps?
> 
> A serious threat to Chinese food supplies with recent severe cold & snow storms.China's products to be less competitive?
> 
> 
> 
> And the share market fails the re-test?




The main concern that I have on China is credit market and property prices in China. Their over investment in gold also may create crisis in the future.

No country will have growth straight up. Similarly we may see slow growth in China time to time in the coming decades.  Therefore we may see volatility for some commodities in some period. On the other hand some commodities including emerging commodities will have demand in China in good times and bad times. For example they will need more and more food and other  proteins in good times and bad times in the coming decades. They will have less arable land in the future. Climate change may affect food production in China and Africa in the future. 

At this moment actually China is doing well when compare with other emerging countries. Their currency is stable and they don’t have currency or gold crisis now.

In any situations there may be opportunities in some sectors. Those who focus on long term fundamentals will be clear winners in the coming decade.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## notting

Hmmm.
inflation of 2.3%?  Whilst GDP growth is better than expected at 7.3.  with an export surplus?  Oh and oil was up about 15 to 20% over the same period.  
Yeah right.  
That makes sense in an economy that's inflation is highly geared to the price of oil.
What is wrong with our journalists?
No wonder all the papers are going broke.  They just swallow and report what ever they are told.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

If China introduces two child policies we will see more demand for some products. 

Both China and India will eat more meat, grain,will drink more milk, coffee, coco and tea in the coming decade. Other highly populated countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia too will create demand for meat especially for poultry products.

Countries such as South America, North America, New Zealand, and Netherlands will have great opportunity to export meat products to Asia in the coming decade. Some Asian countries also will have opportunity to export food  within their Asia region

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions


----------



## notting

MARKETWINNER said:


> If China introduces two child policies we will see more demand for some products.




Yes a demand for a place where you can live(breath) is high on the shopping list.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101225781

Run for your lives!!!utthedoor:


----------



## notting

Goldman actually making sense ~



> Goldman noted that China, for example, has five main problems: "severely imbalanced growth, a weakening demographic profile, financial repression that has distorted allocation of capital, growing pollution that has endangered the health of its population, and an antiquated household registration system known as 'hukou' that has hampered access to education and social services."


----------



## notting

Significant.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/03/rupert-murdoch-china/

It was obvious his wife was a wh@re spy.  
Murdoch was a little Communist choir boy singing the praises of China's economic rise limiting the truth about these inhumane monsters in the Western press, to the detriment of all.
Now that Murdoch is out, the reporting on the reality of China, which has actually improved lately, should continue to be more reflective of the real situation.
The world will be a far better place for it.

There will be ruptions in markets as it unravels.


----------



## Desrancompressor

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting, thanks for that. It appears the Chinese authorities are even more behind the curve than I thought. I wonder how "innovative" they will be?




 First have then to innovative. It's the routine


----------



## MARKETWINNER

My main concern in China is higher property prices. Just like other countries they also could have some bad period. Still investment opportunities could be there. Last couple of years we heard so many negative comments on UK and Japan. Still these markets gave some of the best returns to intelligent investors. I am slightly bullish on China and investors could have some moderate return from stocks in 2014. I am bullish on Chinese tea, poultry, meat, education, health sector and selected technology there.

Some of the options are: 

Target the next most promising sectors in China
Avoid AUD, NZD and go long on USD
In good time and bad time people cannot postpone eating and drinking- Their consumer staples sector will outperform in good and bad times.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## notting

MARKETWINNER said:


> My main concern in China is higher property prices.




*There are a few other concerns (connect the dots)*



> 'm thinking we need to call this industry what it really is: China's answer to Enron. The Houston-based Enron's real business wasn’t energy and commodities, but book-cooking. The same holds true for China's shadow-banking entities. They are the fuel Beijing uses "to restart the furnaces," without attracting the notice of Moody's, Standard & Poor's or the US Treasury Department.
> China's financial system is the ultimate black box. You don't have to be a genius to conclude that when JPMorgan Chase estimates shadow banking to be 69 percent of China’s 2012 gross domestic product, it's a wildly conservative guess. I wouldn't quite add a zero, but if China fudges trade and other run-of-the-mill data, you can imagine the lengths to which it goes to hide the magnitude of its credit bubble.
> "There are some eerie resemblances with the financial conditions that prevailed in the US in the years preceding the crash of 2008," Soros wrote. "But there is a significant difference. In the US, financial markets tend to dominate politics; in China, the state owns the banks and the bulk of the economy, and the Communist Party controls the state-owned enterprises." He added: "How and when this contradiction will be resolved will have profound consequences for China and the world."
> 
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/chin...ainst-china-20140110-30l8c.html#ixzz2py0sKuME






MARKETWINNER said:


> Target the next most promising sectors in China
> Avoid AUD, NZD and go long on USD
> In good time and bad time people cannot postpone eating and drinking- Their consumer staples sector will outperform in good and bad times.




*The local food is becoming toxic from the pollution which is another little issue.*


----------



## skc

This is something to keep a close watch imo.



> Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. is rejecting calls to bail out a troubled 3 billion-yuan ($495 million) trust product, a bank official with knowledge of the matter said, stoking concern that the nation’s first default on such high-yield investments may be looming.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...oubled-china-trust-product-official-says.html

Another link to the same story
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/

Chances are there will be a bail out of the investors in that particular product, as the risk / cost of a mass exit in other products would be much much worse. But if too many more of the blows up then it might be impossible to keep a lid on.

In Jun 2007, 2 of Bear Sterns subprime mortgage funds failed and that was essentially the first warning bells of the pending GFC. This may or may not be the same...


----------



## Huskar

skc said:


> This is something to keep a close watch imo.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...oubled-china-trust-product-official-says.html
> 
> Another link to the same story
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/
> 
> Chances are there will be a bail out of the investors in that particular product, as the risk / cost of a mass exit in other products would be much much worse. But if too many more of the blows up then it might be impossible to keep a lid on.
> 
> In Jun 2007, 2 of Bear Sterns subprime mortgage funds failed and that was essentially the first warning bells of the pending GFC. This may or may not be the same...




Very interesting indeed thanks SKC


----------



## notting

Following the smart money is usually a good idea.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000239407

Makes it hard for a consumer led transformation with *no* trickle down from the *only* ones that 'have' anything to buy stuff with.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> This is something to keep a close watch imo.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...oubled-china-trust-product-official-says.html
> 
> Another link to the same story
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/
> 
> Chances are there will be a bail out of the investors in that particular product, as the risk / cost of a mass exit in other products would be much much worse. But if too many more of the blows up then it might be impossible to keep a lid on.




Looks like they rescued that trust. 



> As speculation mounted over recent weeks that the trust would fail, leaving its 700 investors out of pocket and marking the first default of its kind since 2005, China was headed for an inauspicious start to the Year of the Horse. Some predicted the first domino would fall in a cascade that would cripple China’s financial system. And so it became the $560 million bad loan that nearly brought a $10 trillion economy to its knees.
> 
> But in the end disaster was avoided. China Credit Trust announced on Monday it had struck a deal with investors to restructure the high-yield product. Not everyone is cheering.
> 
> This was supposed to be the test-case for China’s much-talked about shadow banking sector and there were many market watchers who believed it was time for regulators to let one of these wealth management products fail. After all, if China is looking to reform its financial sector, it needs to let the market price risk.




http://www.afr.com/p/world/trust_rescue_bad_omen_for_shadow_gjngvtNHGbeQpVGBlcQxyJ

Oh well, at least you can say that China is not a true capitalist market anyway.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Secular trending.........down.......and out?


----------



## CanOz

Yes the world is ending....

China still has one trump card left....Privatisation of the SOE's

and its begun....

China's Sinopec sale points to next round of state privatisation

This has the potential to attract an unprecedented amount of foreign direct investment. It could be the next leg of the bull market...also the final leg.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> Secular trending.........down.......and out?




They will announce some targeted stimulus soon.


----------



## notting

> many market watchers who believed it was time for regulators to let one of these wealth management products fail. After all, if China is looking to reform its financial sector, it needs to let the market price risk.



Many still haven't figured out that the regulators are the ones having their wealth managed!  It's back door 'tax the people,' to insure the funds which pay 'the shadow regulators' excessive interest.  Let's get some overseas before it all falls over.  Apartments in Australia look OK.


----------



## CanOz

> Credit squeeze on Chinese steel mills has consequences for demand of Australian iron ore
> 
> In a move that could further erode Australian mineral exports to China, the government there says it is preparing to cut off credit to under-performing steel mills in the hope that they will close, merge or become more efficient.




Cleaning house....


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Looks like they rescued that trust.




Further to the story here there was a new one... the first public bond default of a solar company.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/china-copper-financing-idUSL3N0M83M320140311



> China's first domestic bond default has shaken the foundations of the copper market, stoking investor worries that financing deals that have locked up vast quantities of copper could unravel.






> The default on a bond payment by China's Chaori Solar last week signalled a reassessment of credit risk in a market where even high-yielding debt had been seen as carrying an implicit state guarantee. On Tuesday, another solar company announced a second year of net losses, leading to a suspension of its stock and bonds on the Shanghai stock exchange and stoking fears that it, too, may default.




It is difficult to appreciate the impact from this... it may be stand alone corporate default which means absolute nothing to worry about. Or it may be the "first cockroach" like those early Bear Stern funds.


----------



## satanoperca

skc said:


> It is difficult to appreciate the impact from this... it may be stand alone corporate default which means absolute nothing to worry about. Or it may be the "first cockroach" like those early Bear Stern funds.




I think it is a good thing, brings risk back onto the table and just a normal part of a functioning financial market. Winners and losers.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Further to the story here there was a new one... the first public bond default of a solar company.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/china-copper-financing-idUSL3N0M83M320140311
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It is difficult to appreciate the impact from this... it may be stand alone corporate default which means absolute nothing to worry about. Or it may be the "first cockroach" like those early Bear Stern funds.




That was responsible for the gap down Monday wasn't it? 

That's a massive default, but these guys have been subsidized for ages. I agree that this one is a good one. IT seems that are starting to let some of the bad businesses fail while wanting to attract private investors for the better SOE's.


----------



## notting

The move to open private banks is also good.
But it's not going to be without pain and I'm not talking about a head ache or a saw thumb.


----------



## skc

satanoperca said:


> I think it is a good thing, brings risk back onto the table and just a normal part of a functioning financial market. Winners and losers.




Sure. Anytime there's implicit guarantee risks get mis-priced. What we don't know is how much mis-priced risk there are... if there are lots of them, then there will be a massive adjustment period.



CanOz said:


> That was responsible for the gap down Monday wasn't it?




Probably in combination with the export data miss.


----------



## Trembling Hand

And have a look at the chart. Very similar to the meltdown in PMs a year ago.




Right on the edge.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Time to short commodities and miners..........short Australia??


----------



## skc

skc said:


> It is difficult to appreciate the impact from this... it may be stand alone corporate default which means absolute nothing to worry about. Or it may be the "first cockroach" like those early Bear Stern funds.




Here comes the second cockroach... Highsee Iron and Steel.

And the messgae from the government? Don't be surprised if you see even more cockroaches in the near future.



> High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/27f9f4aa-aa82-11e3-9fd6-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2vu8zgtWB
> 
> Li Keqiang said on Thursday that China was likely to see a series of defaults as the government accelerates financial deregulation, although he added the government would take steps to ensure they do not pose a threat to the wider financial system.




It feels like a controlled hardish landing. Let's hope they can get the descend done at the right pace.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> Here comes the second cockroach... Highsee Iron and Steel.
> 
> And the messgae from the government? Don't be surprised if you see even more cockroaches in the near future.
> 
> 
> 
> It feels like a controlled hardish landing. Let's hope they can get the descend done at the right pace.




A bit of housekeeping perhaps...Jimmy Rogers would love it, let 'em fail!


----------



## notting

skc said:


> It feels like a controlled hardish landing. Let's hope they can get the descend done at the right pace.




That would be a first.  
Even for real market economy without BBQ'd books.
When they run out of thumbs to plug the little holes.
The hot air will be seen for what it is and the landing will be as graceful as the Hindenburg.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> That would be a first.
> Even for real market economy without BBQ'd books.
> When they run out of thumbs to plug the little holes.
> The hot air will be seen for what it is and the landing will be as graceful as the Hindenburg.




Name a real market economy without bbq'd books...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Name a real market economy without bbq'd books...




Oz?


----------



## qldfrog

you mean headlines like:
http://www.ntnews.com.au/business/a-rises-on-jobs-figures/story-fnjbnvte-1226853501297
with real figures like
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-surge-mirage-060629184.html
or employed people with 2h a week??

no one wants to hear the truth and figures are cooked western countries or not..look at company reports...
anyway a bit irrelevant


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Name a real market economy without bbq'd books...




That's a classic dictatorship like sloganeering attempting to cloud the issue. 

A bit like the Chinese pointing to Australia's treatment of refugees or aboriginals as somehow making that on par with the horrific viciousness and scale and  of the murder and torture, pollution, animal cruelty, financial manipulation, lying and general enslavement of the people by the dictatorship of China.
To make the comparison is childish at best.
No one with an ounce of sincerity or integrity would paint all with the same brush. 

The worst of the Morwell fires never got even close to just another day in Beijing.

The 'free' markets and watering down of distortions through the lumbering democratic process will always ensure that some bubbles are less destructive when they explode than others!!!  

But hey you don't need to be told - Tick tock, tick tock.


----------



## CanOz

It's your opinion Notting. I have similar opinions about the US, but I'm not near as outspoken about them as you are with the Chinese....but then again, I don't or didn't have a stake in it....


----------



## Uncle Festivus

China - the worlds banker......built on an ocean of ephemeral fiat





Join the central bankers club.......




This one is real money......


----------



## notting

China's Shadow colony North Korea - 



> China dismissed on Monday a UN report alleging North Korea has committed crimes against humanity, effectively confirming the fears of human rights advocates that Beijing will shield its ally from international prosecution.
> 
> The report, published in February, accused the reclusive country of mass killings and torture comparable to Nazi-era atrocities and said officials, possibly even Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un himself, should face the International Criminal Court (ICC).
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-r...chael-kirby-20140318-hvjwi.html#ixzz2wFpjLBfU



All this goes on within what China claims as it's boarders as well.

Whilst it's reported economic growth continues to trend in a negative direction -
China widens the Band on Yuan trading  after a string of negative reports from the dictatorship.  
That's not a loosening of policy on currency manipulation, that's manipulating the Yaun down as usual!  
China continues it's efforts to beggar the rest of the world, then take it over, by monopolizing manufacturing with it's slave labor force and manipulated currency.
 - A string of listings are being lined up for the US markets, Like Alibaba and Weibo.
Guess that will make them more lucrative for the Communist party members who own them with the weaker Yuan.  The dictators are getting out by floating them to the US.
Won't be dipping my stake in anything Chinese ever.


----------



## Trembling Hand

notting said:


> Won't be dipping my stake in anything Chinese ever.




 Never held a mining share? Or purchased a cheap toaster. LOL just nonsense!


----------



## satanoperca

Trembling Hand said:


> Never held a mining share? Or purchased a cheap toaster. LOL just nonsense!




He also walks around naked.


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> Never held a mining share? Or purchased a cheap toaster. LOL just nonsense!




Many times but that's not China, Chinese or nonsense.


----------



## CanOz

Chinese Developer Bonds Sink in Secondary Trade Amid Collapse 



> Some 66 percent of new Chinese developer dollar-denominated bonds sold this year are trading below their issue price amid the collapse of a private real estate company and news the housing market is cooling.


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Chinese Developer Bonds Sink in Secondary Trade Amid Collapse




Your link didn't work. Here's a piece on this.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/b...ers-collapse-adds-to-china-concerns.html?_r=0

Cockroach No.3, your name is Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Investment Company.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswr...ts-still-not-a-bear-stearns-moment-for-china/



skc said:


> Here comes the second cockroach... Highsee Iron and Steel.




Correction to the name... it's Haixin Steel.

Anyhow, that's 3 companies in 3 strategic industries. Green technology, steel and property. I still hold hopes of a controlled descent...


----------



## CanOz

That was a Bloomberg link, not sure what happened there...

Here's another.....surely those short sellers will get burned

Short Sellers Target Chinese Developers as Rout Deepens



> Stock traders have doubled bearish bets against some of the biggest Chinese developers amid growing concern that a weaker real-estate market will curb property sales just as borrowing costs surge.


----------



## CanOz

The whole property bubble is a bit of a tricky call. People that invest in property basically have no other option for the pile of cash. So they buy hordes of apartments and they sit, empty. Seriously, its all around you here, no matter what city you live in. The investors think they're making money as the get the property valued now and again and of course this confirms what they've been expecting. The property has gone up according to the valuer. The thing is i don't think there is much of a market here for pre-owned apartments, unless they're in desired areas, in the bigger cities. If we tried to sell our place, i'm not sure that we could. Certainly we wouldn't expect the growth that the media is reporting. We're just outside Shanghai too. I think the bulk of the properties are being bought off plan. Now this is worrying. IF we start to get allot of developers failing, then in order to free up capital those that got caught with deposits in the failing property companies start to try and sell their other properties and 'POP', that's the bubble done. I don't know if i articulated this very well but basically i think there needs to be a big catalyst to entice the owners to start unloading. The lack of liquidity will force prices down so fast that there will be a panic. 

However, those still with funds will want to be taking advantage of these 'great' prices and may halt the decline as they step in to buy again. The hard thing to comprehend here is the amount of cash looking for a home.

Its not all like the US where everyone was leveraged out...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> The whole property bubble is a bit of a tricky call. People that invest in property basically have no other option for the pile of cash. So they buy hordes of apartments and they sit, empty. Seriously, its all around you here, no matter what city you live in. The investors think they're making money as the get the property valued now and again and of course this confirms what they've been expecting. The property has gone up according to the valuer. The thing is i don't think there is much of a market here for pre-owned apartments, unless they're in desired areas, in the bigger cities. If we tried to sell our place, i'm not sure that we could. Certainly we wouldn't expect the growth that the media is reporting. We're just outside Shanghai too. I think the bulk of the properties are being bought off plan. Now this is worrying. IF we start to get allot of developers failing, then in order to free up capital those that got caught with deposits in the failing property companies start to try and sell their other properties and 'POP', that's the bubble done. I don't know if i articulated this very well but basically i think there needs to be a big catalyst to entice the owners to start unloading. The lack of liquidity will force prices down so fast that there will be a panic.
> 
> However, those still with funds will want to be taking advantage of these 'great' prices and may halt the decline as they step in to buy again. The hard thing to comprehend here is the amount of cash looking for a home.
> 
> Its not all like the US where everyone was leveraged out...




Questions for you CanOz...

- Is there a leading property website for China (or at least the big city markets)? Like realestate.com.au for Australia?

- Are mortgages generally tied to the borrower or are they non-recoursed (like the US sub-prime)?

- Is there a secondary market for mortgage debt? Like RMBS?

Sorry I could google them myself I guess 

Don't forget this chart...


----------



## notting

To me it's a bit like the US and European stocks exchanges there is too much cash everywhere looking for a home.
It's just odd that the Chinese can't rent the apartments out.
If I were you I'd sell and take a long term lease as part of the deal just sit back and wait for a buyer no pressure, just yet.

Re being short China, not too bad -


----------



## CanOz

Don't get me wrong i'm not trying to say this bubble is different and won't end the same. Its worse, its much bigger. I'm saying it may take longer to really pop though. Maybe the bargain hunters are the retracement on your bubble chart. 

Will ask my wife some questions about the property sites...give it a while, she's pregnant, not in a great mood at the moment

As far as i know the properties are directly tied to the borrowers. We still owe the bank a small amount (less than 20% of the value) on our mortgage, for example.

There is no derivative market pre se here, the debt is not bundled up and sold off as AAA investments...although the shadow banking system is a worry. The big problem is the degree in which allot of the debt has been rolled over into the shadow banking system. For example, i know a developer that is paying interest on his debts interest, by borrowing more money from the shadow bankers....so he is paying interest on interest.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> It's just odd that the Chinese can't rent the apartments out.




Most are not even finished, they're just concrete caves. That said there is a huge property rental market and its pretty cheap to get a decent place. My mate next door has a huge fifth story penthouse apartment with 2 floors, 3 bedrooms, 3 balconies for 5000 CNY per month. There is no way they have EVER been getting anywhere 5% yield on a rental property. The rent would even be paying their interest payments on newer places I'm sure. This is in a regional area, where the values are much more down to earth. Our place is like, 125 sq.meters and is likely worth about 2 million CNY.


----------



## notting

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101501718

Analysts are sayen it's not going to be a domino effect.
Oh I vaguely remember hearing that somewhere before about property that was ever going to be in short supply, like commodities.  
It was about 5 years ago.:hide:


----------



## havaiana

article from the age:

"Cash-strapped Chinese are scrambling to sell their luxury homes in Hong Kong, and some are knocking up to a fifth off the price for a quick sale, as a liquidity crunch looms on the mainland."

http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/fire-sale-chinese-selling-off-hong-kong-luxury-homes-20140321-356ui.html


----------



## notting

> And the richest man in Asia, the legendary Hong Kong tycoon ''Superman'' Li Kashing, has been busy dumping 20 billion yuan ($7 billion) of Chinese property from his portfolio.
> 
> ''This is a signal worth attention,'' Wang says.
> 
> The Financial Times reported this week that China's central bank and one of its largest state lenders held emergency talks over whether to bail out failing Zhejiang property developer Xingrun Real Estate and help repay the company's 3.5 billion yuan debts. It came quickly after Chaori Solar became China's first bond default this month.
> 
> It came just a week after Premier Li Keqiang warned that defaults in China's financial system were proving ''hardly avoidable'' - highlighting the tightrope authorities tread between courting moral hazard and undermining confidence in the country's debt-laden financial sector.
> 
> In a rare move highlighting the sensitivity of the situation, the People's Bank of China denied it had sought to intervene.
> 
> ''The People's Bank strongly condemns the media publishing false reports without verifying the facts,'' it said in a statement, only serving to add fuel to investor speculation that the report was right on the money.
> 
> Far from being a disparate issue, China's property conundrum is inextricably linked to its multi-trillion-yuan shadow banking sector.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/are-...onomic-ruin-20140321-358l2.html#ixzz2wnDLhnCL




Catalyst?


----------



## havaiana

This is the sort of thing that could make the Chinese M/Billionaires very nervous and just want to get their money out

"Chinese authorities have seized assets worth at least 90 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) from family members and associates of retired domestic security tsar Zhou Yongkang, who is at the centre of China's biggest corruption scandal........  But it may also be driven partly by political payback after Zhou angered leaders......"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-china-corruption-zhou-idUSBREA2T02S20140330


----------



## skc

Another day, another documentary about slowdown in China.



> http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/03/31/3972864.htm




It feels like it is staring you in the face... but at the same time, do you have the conviction to land the big short? Will you be right? Will you make profit whilst being right?

I wish I run a macro hedge fund and short with other people's money


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Another day, another documentary about slowdown in China.
> 
> 
> 
> It feels like it is staring you in the face... but at the same time, do you have the conviction to land the big short? Will you be right? Will you make profit whilst being right?
> 
> I wish I run a macro hedge fund and short with other people's money




Its the same same as it ever was. Lots of themes out there to make money from but usually people are not creative enough to land the killer punch. 

Dot.com
Then Dot.con explosion
China Bull 2003-2007
GFC
5 year QE rally
Next..........

Most will just say after its gone "no one predicted that".  Even worst spend 5 years wanting a replay and get all out of sync...


----------



## kid hustlr

hmm I dunno about that. I personally think this China thing has more to play out but I also believe in the words 

"I've never seen a crisis where everyone was expecting it before hand". The more publicity this stuff gets the less of a factor it becomes.


----------



## notting

It's been a 5 year decline on the Chinese stock market what more do you want?

What ya gonna short now? Now that it's all over the news!

It's been dead bull in a paddock with cold bones for about a year now.

Maybe there will be a great capitulation.
There will certainly be a Hindenburg moment - I promise.
But timing that from here at this low point is obviously tough. If they stimulate, short after the market has rallied on the back of that.

The Chinese have reserves to fake it out for a few years more if they want to and make it even worse as they have done for about 10 years. 
The present leader is the best thing that has happened in China for about 60 years. 
Xi has been far more candid than the previous monster dictators.
But things are so bad in China it's hard to see how it can ever get cleaned up unless Xi is a total genius with balls and muscle to fit.  
The political challenge is colossal.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> But things are so bad in China it's hard to see how it can ever get cleaned up ...




Shhhhh, don't say it too loud, they might hear you. Honestly, they have no idea. They're all so addicted to credit they really believe it will just go on forever...


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> hmm I dunno about that. I personally think this China thing has more to play out but I also believe in the words
> 
> "I've never seen a crisis where everyone was expecting it before hand". The more publicity this stuff gets the less of a factor it becomes.




I read this book some years back and one passage stuck with me.

http://www.amazon.com/Diary-Very-Bad-Year-Confessions/dp/0061965308/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_y

The guy recalled how he had to let go one of their investment managers because that manager made the wrong bet on subprime. A few guys from the office were seeing the anecdotes before the collapse - empty apartments in Miami, predatory lending adverts on TVs etc etc. But the subprime investment manager was able to bring up hard facts that vacancy rates were still under control, and arrears were still low. So they held on to the subprime securities until it's too late.

The media can pick on the anecdotes and make good TV out of it. But to put in context, one ghost city for 200k people is a drop in the ocean compared to the urban migration 50m people. And that's where I struggle to have the conviction that the things we see about China will indeed lead to a collapse.

I don't think I've expressed it very well, but I don't think the China situation is one that is obvious and could go either way.

Another analogy - you see a bus heading towards a cliff at some speed. The driver is still there looking somewhat calm and in control. Will it go over?! Perhaps common sense and logic will prevail and the bus will change course before it's too late. But what if the driver is not in full control? Or he didn't know his brake paddles are not working? Or he turns a sharp left only to drive into a lake?



notting said:


> It's been a 5 year decline on the Chinese stock market what more do you want?
> 
> What ya gonna short now? Now that it's all over the news!




You'd short the debt rather than equity now.


----------



## kid hustlr

fair points SKC


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> I read this book some years back and one passage stuck with me.




I had one of those moments myself.

In June 07 I was sitting in a certain trading floor in Sydney discussing what was about to happen because everyone was talking about "subprime". My guess and what I said was we were about to have a nasty fall and then a sharp recovery and all will be well. One of the bond boyz said "not f@$#%ing likely". Made me look really hard at the possibility that the bull market was over.

We had the fall and snap back recovery to new highs in October 07 and then boooom. It was nearly a year after the first tremors until we made a lower low and didn't stop falling until the XAO was cut in half.

No one saw that coming...


----------



## notting

skc said:


> But to put in context, one ghost city for 200k people is a drop in the ocean compared to the urban migration 50m people.




This is the illusion.  

This is the reality - The money the so called migrators are supposed to have to pay for the the multitude of 'apartments' owned by the few who have been sold concrete rooms in concrete towers because they had no where else they were 'allowed' to put their money, is not going to happen.

The communist party may decide to build airports, schools, shopping centers and super fast railway systems to connect up the ghost towns but  Kinda isn't much of a solution given there is no one to buy the empty apartments apart from this grand illusion of rural penniless and clueless farmers suddenly all jumping up to being some middle class miracle on the back of you must buy this apartment :twak: buy this apartment :twak:


----------



## DB008

Will we have a false start, then a massive drop, like the GFC?

I couldn't get the Four Corners video to work, so punched it into youtube and got this one, pretty much the same one (I think).



Some pretty impressive stats too.

In the 5 years since the GFC, they built x number of cities, 25 airports, 3 of the worlds longest bridges, x-miles of roads and high speed rail. Probably what Oz would do in 50 years....if that. 

Will it all come to tears?

Short RIO, BHP, ASX200?


----------



## skc

Another book predicting the end...http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Collapse-China-Gordon-Chang/dp/0812977564



> The Coming Collapse of China
> 
> China is hot. The world sees a glorious future for this sleeping giant, three times larger than the United States, predicting it will blossom into the world's biggest economy by 20XX. According to Chang, however, a Chinese-American lawyer and China specialist, the People's Republic is a paper dragon. Peer beneath the veneer of modernization since Mao's death, and the symptoms of decay are everywhere: Deflation grips the economy, state-owned enterprises are failing, banks are hopelessly insolvent, foreign investment continues to decline, and Communist party corruption eats away at the fabric of society.




Oh wait... the book was published in... *2001*!

I guess if you were bearish on the Roman empire you'd be right at some point within a thousand years of its founding.


----------



## notting

What's happening on the ground.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eb56cf4-bfc7-11e3-b6e8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ySxqfSSw


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> What's happening on the ground.
> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eb56cf4-bfc7-11e3-b6e8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ySxqfSSw




The link doesn't work, wants me to subscribe, can you please provide some detail?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> The link doesn't work, wants me to subscribe, can you please provide some detail?




Here you go.



> A bitter turf war between China’s two most important financial regulators is hampering policy co-ordination just as the country’s debt-laden financial system is starting to show signs of real strain.
> 
> The China Banking Regulatory Commission and the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, have always been rivals, but now rising tensions are obstructing reforms and efforts to tackle risks in the financial sector, according to officials from both agencies.
> 
> From the outside, the Chinese system can often look like a monolithic structure but the various arms of the bureaucracy are often engaged in vicious institutional battles that can delay or even hamstring policy.
> 
> In just one example of how rancorous the split has become, several people familiar with the matter say a Financial Stability Council chaired by the PBoC and including the heads of the main financial regulatory bodies has met just once since it was established last August.
> 
> The row comes after several high-profile defaults in recent weeks including the first ever public domestic bond default in modern history and a small bank run in eastern China.
> 
> The council has not been able to meet because of opposition from the CBRC, which has vehemently objected to what it sees as a power grab by the PBoC.
> 
> In recent weeks the central bank, which has responsibility for overall financial stability in China, has expressed frustration at the CBRC’s unwillingness or inability to rein in the off-balance sheet activity of the state-controlled banking system, which has ballooned in recent years.
> 
> The PBoC also feels the CBRC is too close to the state banks and has failed to get a handle on the scale of problem loans at many of the country’s smaller lenders.
> 
> “One of the biggest roadblocks to financial reforms in China now is the fact the PBoC doesn’t think the banking regulator is capable of handling the risks associated with that reform,” said one person familiar with the matter.
> 
> The most pressing of those reforms include a long-delayed plan to introduce deposit insurance and the liberalisation of interest rates, which is already under way in the so-called “shadow banking” sector.
> 
> Both of these initiatives are opposed by state banks which have enjoyed a near-monopoly in the financial sector for decades.
> 
> Meanwhile, CBRC officials feel they are being unfairly blamed for not managing risks that were created by the PBoC and which they have warned about for years.
> 
> In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, Beijing launched a credit-fuelled stimulus that has seen assets in the formal and shadow banking sectors balloon from around $10tn to nearly $25tn today, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings.
> 
> In other words, in just five years China has added new assets equivalent to those held by the entire US banking system.
> 
> As a result, the country’s ratio of total debt to GDP has jumped from 130 per cent in 2008 to 220 per cent now.
> 
> Such a rapid build-up of credit has almost always been a precursor to a financial crisis in other economies and the CBRC has been warning of the risks since the stimulus was launched in 2008.
> 
> Another CBRC complaint has been the PBoC’s aggressive promotion of “financial innovation”, which some officials at the banking regulator say is more accurately described as “interest rate arbitrage” or “regulatory arbitrage”.
> 
> They argue that having forced the banks to carry the burden of the stimulus the PBoC then encouraged the creation of the vast shadow banking sector that it now blames the CBRC for not regulating properly.
> 
> A spokesperson for the PBoC declined to comment while a spokesperson for the CBRC said the two institutions have a co-operative relationship.




If anyone believes those figures that China provided yesterday were even remotely close to the reality you really need to think harder!! They suddenly became a consumer driven nation overnight, and a booming one at that!


----------



## DB008

notting said:


> If anyone believes those figures that China provided.....




The numbers that China puts out are always fudged....


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> If anyone believes those figures that China provided yesterday were even remotely close to the reality you really need to think harder!! They suddenly became a consumer driven nation overnight, and a booming one at that!




So...I'm thinking:

Retail sales growth was also published yesterday.  YoY was 12.2 vs prior 13.6.  ie. Slowing rate of growth.

If booming, why are producer prices deflating?  Exports are down.  Credit growth is down. Gov't had to mini-stimulate via targeted infrastructure spend.

From RBA Minutes: The spot price for iron ore had been volatile over recent weeks, while steel prices in China had declined and spot prices for coking and thermal coal were well below current contract levels. The fall in the price of steel in China over recent weeks was consistent with a softening in demand. At the same time, the supply of steel appeared to have been constrained by a tightening in credit conditions reflecting the Chinese authorities' concerns about pollution. Base metals prices had also declined, though rural commodity prices were a little higher. 

None of this is consistent with what you are saying.  What are you seeing?


----------



## notting

The thing that stood out like a saw thumb is Retail sales growth of 12%. Saying it was 13% prior was just as much of a joke.
They are trying to give the impression that the economy is making a smooth transition from Tiger to Consumer.
It's complete rubbish.
They have just eased rural bank lending conditions.
The pollution thing has trapped them from the path they have taken to this point and they have no where to go!


----------



## DeepState

DB008 said:


> The numbers that China puts out are always fudged....




Maybe so, but they can be cross-verified in important elements with other hard and measurable indicators.  Their exports figure, for example, is directly verifiable by adding up the imports from other countries.  Similarly, their imports are another country's exports.  Interest rates are directly observable.  Shipping movements...electricity production...etc.  Whilst it is "amazing" that China can produce its National Accounts so fast, in aggregate and through time, their figures have been found to be satisfactorily indicative and are relied upon.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> The thing that stood out like a saw thumb is Retail sales growth of 12%. Saying it was 13% prior was just as much of a joke.
> They are trying to give the impression that the economy is making a smooth transition from Tiger to Consumer.
> It's complete rubbish.
> They have just eased rural bank lending conditions.
> The pollution thing has trapped them from the path they have taken to this point and they have no where to go!




Oh...Sorry.  I did not catch the tone from a flat communication tool like this web chat.  You meant the opposite and I couldn't read your posture from the text clearly.  My bad.

Yes, I agree that there are many things to balance off.  Looks tough.  But look where they have come from.  Even if the figures are accurate, it implies that rebalancing of the economy is virtually non-existent (Retail is nominal, inflation approx. 4%).  What rebalancing?  Banking system challenges are present, but the sovereign is underwriting and the market is not pricing in too much risk - yes, they could be wrong, but it's the best working hypothesis and inter-bank is calm.  Export dependency is going away and FX suppression has its limits with the latest efforts already attracting US rancor.  $4tr in FX reserves is outrageous and a source of Geopol risk right there.  With Japan not making it, something interesting might develop in the year ahead. Basically, the seemingly most plausible way to rebalance is to slow the economy somewhat - or have it slowed for you much more dramatically at some stage down the track.  I am impressed at efforts to add risk to the lending system and hot money flows.  It's a good step.  We'll see what the other reforms bring, including those relating to pollution.  The power of a command economy with the ability to implement selective market reforms sequentially should possibly not be underestimated.

Thanks.


----------



## notting

DeepState said:


> The power of a command economy with the ability to implement selective market reforms sequentially should possibly not be underestimated.




Unfortunately that is the greatest myth of them all.  
It's not power it's the weakness.

It is the breeding ground of catastrophic problems like massive corruption, irreversible crippling pollution and massive errors like "breed like fly's" flipping into 'one child policies' all with their own social and economical disastrous consequences.  
Unlimited power leads to unlimited distortions and corruption. 

Command economies breed distortions that knee cap the entire structure.  
The longer the 'one' command gang remains, the worse the distortions and self destruction become.  
China is the mother of all economic disasters waiting to play out.
Unless you have an omniscient visionary in command, the bumbling, far from perfect, democracies are far better self smoothing machines.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> Unfortunately that is the greatest myth of them all.
> It's not power it's the weakness.
> 
> It is the breeding ground of catastrophic problems like massive corruption, irreversible crippling pollution and massive errors like "breed like fly's" flipping into 'one child policies' all with their own social and economical disastrous consequences.
> Unlimited power leads to unlimited distortions and corruption.
> 
> Command economies breed distortions that knee cap the entire structure.
> The longer the 'one' command gang remains, the worse the distortions and self destruction become.
> China is the mother of all economic disasters waiting to play out.
> Unless you have an omniscient visionary in command, the bumbling, far from perfect, democracies are far better self smoothing machines.




On average, democratic economies have produced slightly better outcomes than non-democratic economies.  Not far better.  The deviation of outcomes across all ranges of the spectrum across democracy and dictatorship are far wider than the slope of the relationship itself, making it very dangerous to make sweeping statements because there is a very high chance the statement will be wrong just on the stats alone.  Further, there is a concept of democratization as wealth rises, as the people demand a better life and a greater say.  Whilst this process is 'sticky' when examined empirically, the relationship between wealth and democratic processes is obvious.  That transition is visible in China as greater autonomy is gradually being given to the local level and even democratic style elections are held in these areas.  President Xi himself sees that he was elected as part of a democratic process, albeit within the CCP apparatus. 

For every Angola there is a Singapore (a democracy?  Really?).

I don't deny that absolute power breeds the possibility of really bad things going on, including corruption and cronyism, or that China is not riddled with them.  It is.  But studies on the impact of corruption on GDP do not come to the damning conclusion that you seem to.  The answer is - it depends.

Just a thought.  Enjoying the exchange.  


Worldwide Democracy vs Dictatorship and GDP relationship:




And, when you control for Asian culture:


----------



## CanOz

What did you do before you retired young, Retired Young?


----------



## DeepState

CanOz said:


> What did you do before you retired young, Retired Young?




I once headed a team that managed a lot of money, using some unbelievably cool techniques, with some of the brightest minds on the planet.  Together, we touched the sky. Along the way I had the opportunity to work alongside some of the world's best investors...those guys/gals actually were RockStars.  Many are now centi-millionaires. Now, I just want to see my kids grow up and be with my wife because that's even cooler. 

What about you?


----------



## DB008

DeepState said:


> I once headed a team that managed a lot of money, using some unbelievably cool techniques, with some of the brightest minds on the planet.  Together, we touched the sky. Along the way I had the opportunity to work alongside some of the world's best investors...those guys/gals actually were RockStars.  Many are now centi-millionaires. Now, I just want to see my kids grow up and be with my wife because that's even cooler.
> 
> What about you?




What sort of returns are we talking about? 500% plus?


----------



## CanOz

DeepState said:


> I once headed a team that managed a lot of money, using some unbelievably cool techniques, with some of the brightest minds on the planet.  Together, we touched the sky. Along the way I had the opportunity to work alongside some of the world's best investors...those guys/gals actually were RockStars.  Many are now centi-millionaires. Now, I just want to see my kids grow up and be with my wife because that's even cooler.
> 
> What about you?




Wow, cool. Ahh I'm just a  bum


----------



## DeepState

CanOz said:


> Wow, cool. Ahh I'm just a  bum




Just like me. ...and loving it.


----------



## CanOz

DeepState said:


> Just like me. ...and loving it.




Yeah, similar...except our first is on the way and I'm going back to work....

In China again too....

Ahh well, only another 3.5 years to go! Hopefully the riots hold off until we leave...


----------



## notting

DeepState said:


> President Xi himself sees that he was elected as part of a democratic process, albeit within the CCP apparatus.




The Chinese leadership is the most vetted position on earth the veters are the previous leaders and power brokers sitting in the back rooms there's about 3 of them who give the final nod!
The democracy claim is one of the classic CCP propaganda statements and the ridiculous notion of the democratic CCP process has even got nothing to do with all the (princlings) sitting in all the CCP chairs.  It's a simple weighed up corporate decision made in the back room with one objective - *keep the status quo* which means 'our' control, power and privilege over the people whilst making a revolution impossible via any and every means possible.

What is surprising to me is that the inevitable distortions are so blatant and obvious yet half witted economists are still contemplating if there is a an issue or not. Overbuild, pollution, over population, corruption, distorted wealth distribution all making economic maturity impossible with much wealth now been funneled out of the basket case economy by the few who have it  because they need to get it out into real economies and uncorrupted investments outside the pretend economy.

Alibaba here we come.

I'll be surprised if China inc manages to stay on the rails longer than another 2 years.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> The Chinese leadership is the most vetted position on earth the veters are the previous leaders and power brokers sitting in the back rooms there's about 3 of them who give the final nod!
> The democracy claim is one of the classic CCP propaganda statements and the ridiculous notion of the democratic CCP process has even got nothing to do with all the (princlings) sitting in all the CCP chairs.  It's a simple weighed up corporate decision made in the back room with one objective - *keep the status quo* which means 'our' control, power and privilege over the people whilst making a revolution impossible via any and every means possible.
> 
> What is surprising to me is that the inevitable distortions are so blatant and obvious yet half witted economists are still contemplating if there is a an issue or not. Overbuild, pollution, over population, corruption, distorted wealth distribution all making economic maturity impossible with much wealth now been funneled out of the basket case economy by the few who have it  because they need to get it out into real economies and uncorrupted investments outside the pretend economy.
> 
> Alibaba here we come.
> 
> I'll be surprised if China inc manages to stay on the rails longer than another 2 years.




Thanks for continuing to express your views.

I was surprised to see President Xi make that statement.  However, I think it has some merit.  To be a candidate for the top job, you're not going to be  total fool.  You will be competent and smart and strong.  Even if you are a puppet of the factions within the CCP, they will not put up a Sir Humphrey. In a prior post, you lauded Xi as the best leader China has had in the last 60 years...even better than Deng Xiaoping who, despite having to harshly hold order, opened the country to market forces and which dramatically improved quality of life from the Mao era and the disaster of the policies which he  produced and what followed after his demise via the Gang of Four.  That's a big nod. So, although clearly vetted by Zhang, who sat on the podium looking rather awkward when the Presidency was handed over, I think we agree that a good man is at the helm who had to survive a lot to get there and who had to convince a lot of people along the way that he was capable.

I agree that the objective of the CCP organism is to keep itself alive.  It will even kick out less important members amongst itself to ensure the survival of the elite.  Strangely, that's what democracies/plutocracies like the US also do.  But let's not go there.  

In the past, the CCP was prepared to engage in wholesale violation of anything you might call human rights.  It had nothing economically to speak for, so suppression and disinformation are the only tools you have.  That's not the case anymore.  The CCP acts as if, and knows, that economic success is a major, if not the key, determinant of its survival.  If it doesn't generate enough growth to keep people fed and in jobs, the fabric of society will be at increased risk of unraveling and the anger at the system will spill.  How many 10s of thousands of protests were there last year?  At that's when the economy is growing at around 8% per annum.  So, I submit that the interests of the CCP are aligned with ongoing economic success.  Their actions are consistent with that.

You argue that the problems are too big and complex to resolve.  Who knows?  Looking at certain stats like credit growth in the last five years, demographics, excess capacity....can scare anyone.  It does have the look of a falling building.  Capital is leaving via illegal means and this does indicate a loss of faith. But when you have massive financial suppression in place, who wouldn't be trying to get their capital out?  It was the means to support the banking system.  If you like, really low deposits rates are a form of taxation on savers which is transferred to the banking system to keep it strong.  This is actually a form of Quantitative Easing which led to rampant asset inflation visible in property prices.  It is now being slowly deflated.  Just one of many things going on in the plumbing of the economy.  I do not know if it will be successful, but market pricing of securities tightly linked to these outcomes are betting it will be pretty much alright - although there is a premium for risk over, say, Australia.

It is not appropriate for us, you and me, to extrapolate the past.  Policy changes.  Again, who knows if it will be enough.

Many say the US economy and Leviathan is also on the verge of collapse.  Several indicators point to that as well.  And, if you look at France and Italy's economies, they are also a disaster.  And Japan...nothing makes sense there at all.  It should have slid into the ocean 10 years ago.  We could make the argument that we are on the verge of the collapse of the modern economies...along with China.  And it could be taken seriously.

I shall finish with Buffett (paraphrased and mashed):  If you feel the US is in a bad state now and want to bet against it, what would you have done in 1776 when it was in a war for survival and had nothing.  And went on to become the greatest superpower the world has ever seen.

Is China in a worse state today than when Deng took the reins and led one of the greatest emergences from outright mass poverty the world has ever seen? No way.  Would you have bet against China at the time of the Gang of Four?  I would have...and I would have been dead wrong.


----------



## qldfrog

debate on this thread is quite interesting: this is what I enjoy in the ASF.
Retired Young: well done, I wish I could retire early as well, and I work on it, Can Oz good luck for number one..life will change we all hope we will keep seeing you on the forum.
China..I am puzzled, lately all my rational train of thoughts  fail, real estate prices here in Oz still go higher and higher and even the Oz dollar is going up while I see jobs diseappearing everywhere...
So how can i have a clue on China; i do know for sure their leaders have more power than us as they can plan past the next election and this is what is killing our democraties..so who knows, they might sort the mess out


----------



## notting

Too short sighted and too narrow minded.

China is in a far worse state than it has ever been. 

Lifting a minority out of poverty during relatively  small window of time whist you use the rest of the populous as slaves and destroy the environment in which you live whilst you do it- spells - *at the expense of everything* is not progress, betterment or genuine enrichment!
Not to mention structured corruption at every level of social order (which is tantamount to stage 5 social cancer), Aging population without the population growth to support it from over breading to under breading, I could go on and on.  
Deng used to say 'too early to tell'.  
Time is up not too soon.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> Too short sighted and too narrow minded.
> 
> China is in a far worse state than it has ever been.
> 
> Lifting a minority out of poverty during relatively  small window of time whist you use the rest of the populous as slaves and destroy the environment in which you live whilst you do it- spells - *at the expense everything* is not progress, betterment or genuine enrichment!
> Not to mention structured corruption at every level of social order (which is tantamount to stage 5 social cancer), Aging population without the population growth to support it from over breading to under breading, I could go on and on.
> Deng used to say 'too early to tell'.
> Time is up not too soon.




It was Zhou Enlai who made that statement about the French Revolution (partly disputed).  In that spirit of long history and being too soon to tell, I think China may encounter some significant challenges over the next 200 years.  I agree with you wholeheartedly.  Thanks.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

qldfrog said:


> debate on this thread is quite interesting: this is what I enjoy in the ASF.
> Retired Young: well done, I wish I could retire early as well, and I work on it, Can Oz good luck for number one..life will change we all hope we will keep seeing you on the forum.
> China..I am puzzled, lately all my rational train of thoughts  fail, real estate prices here in Oz still go higher and higher and even the Oz dollar is going up while I see jobs diseappearing everywhere...
> So how can i have a clue on China; i do know for sure their leaders have more power than us as they can plan past the next election and this is what is killing our democraties..so who knows, they might sort the mess out




Essentially, globally, "the Systems" are in the process of failure already - all we are doing is directing always excess $USD's around the planet to the latest money maker by the money shufflers......

"the Systems" are Financial & Ecological.

Make your hay.......while the masses still have faith in the elected yes-people!


----------



## DB008

Got this e-mail from The Economist.

They are bullish on China....


----------



## DeepState

DB008 said:


> They are bullish on China....




Just for balance, this is the latest from Gordon Chang (Forbes) with supporting data from UBS' China team:





Also note that growth in off balance sheet lending remains largely unchanged from mid-2013 (before Credit equals Gold etc.) despite increased focus on adding risk and repatriating these back to on balance sheet assets.


----------



## notting

A well written article.

http://rogermontgomery.com/china-watch-2/


----------



## DB008

What about Japan?



> Japan’s national debt totaled a record-high  ¥1.02 quadrillion as of the end of March, up  ¥33.36 trillion from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said.






> Finance Minister Taro Aso said the situation has become “very severe” because of slow progress in fiscal reforms.




http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001269505


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DB008 said:


> What about Japan?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001269505




Their (government) debt is mostly internal from internal savings - 



> The Japanese Government owns all the BoJ rediscounted Japanese commercial and industrial loans, and they are not about to call time on their own companies and their own people. Quite the contrary - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is about to extend, via the Bank of Japan, credit creation equivalent to another $1.44 trillion to Japanese innovators and industry.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gee whiz. I switched on ABC news in the middle of a report on Chinese property bubble burst and loan defaults highest since 2006.


----------



## DB008

China Property Collapse Has Begun - Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/04/13/china-property-collapse-has-begun/


----------



## CanOz

DB008 said:


> China Property Collapse Has Begun - Forbes
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/04/13/china-property-collapse-has-begun/




This article is over a month old and the HHI and HSI have both rallied since, indicating some faith in the easing of credit.

The question is, can this stop the accelerated decline of housing prices in China? I believe once everyone starts to liquidate we should get a bit of a panic. The easing of credit here should slow down the acceleration, but hopefully it won't stop the decline that has to happen eventually. Taking some heat out of this property market is a good thing right now.


----------



## notting

The debt burden lies on the individual property owners who are required to provide much higher deposits/upfront collateral  and will not be pressured to sell.  
They will just pay off their underwater property forever. 
Something they probably intended to do anyway. 
The problems are for the leveraged developers and their lenders.
The problem with that is that property development makes up for over 40% of economic activity in China!!!


----------



## DB008

> "A picture tells the story? China f/x reserves versus its US Treasury holdings & the recent Belgium surge in buying."



https://twitter.com/michaellachlan/status/468799758744555520/photo/1


----------



## TheUnknown

This is big news..

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/m...ious-after-chinas-qingdao-port-halts-26803276

If fraud does get exposed........


----------



## notting

Listen to the full interview.
The last half becomes relevant for share trading!!!!

[video]http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-04/tiananmen-square-25-years/5495226?section=australianetworknews[/video]

Wondering why the bond market is so strong whilst the share market is so strong?
China is bailing out of itself!!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Myth confirmed - bull bubble popped! Fall-out??



> HONG KONG (MarketWatch) ”” Amid ongoing central government curbs, China’s property market is cooling off dramatically despite the onset of the sector’s traditionally “hot season,” as both land sales and transaction values plunged in May across 300 major Chinese cities.
> 
> Total land sales fell to 1,767 transactions in May in 300 Chinese cities, down 45% from a year ago and 19% lower than in the previous month, according to a survey published Friday on China’s leading real estate website Soufun.com.
> 
> In the same month, the total transaction value for land sales dropped 38% year-on-year, marking a 30% drop from April, to 13.75 billion yuan ($2.2 billion).
> 
> “May is traditionally the hot season, but China’s property market has cooled further, “ Soufun said, adding that property developers remain in “wait-and-see” mode.
> 
> Several Chinese cities even recorded *no land sales at all*. Hangzhou, the affluent capital of the eastern province of Zhejiang, has offered no land for sale in its main city zone to residential developers since March, possibly under pressure from the central government to reduce real-estate inventories, according to Soufun.
> 
> Jinan, the capital of the eastern province of Shandong, also saw no land sales during May, as developers turn cautious amid tougher market conditions, according to a report by Jinan-based Life Daily, a local-government-run newspaper.




http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-real-estate-market-sees-land-sales-plunge-2014-06-09


----------



## notting

It seems some wise people don't trust the value of the Chinese Yuan as it's likely not worth as much as the paper it's written on.  So they have been asking for metals like copper and iron ore as collateral.  Well The Chinese have a way around that too - 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101752322



> Chen Jihong, founder of aluminium producer Dezheng Resources, was detained by Chinese authorities several weeks ago in connection with a different investigation in another province, people familiar with the matter in Qingdao said. His disappearance caused banks to check their exposure to his firm, and suspect that the same metal had been pledged multiple times by one or more of its subsidiaries.
> 
> The case highlights what bankers do not know about their clients in China.


----------



## cornucopian

It will end when the dollar bubble bursts. Throw in peak oil with this and then we have a depression.

China is largely export driven and when the U.S is not doing well, it's going to hurt the Chinese and commodity exporting nations like Australia and Canada.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/




This a good documentary on the U.S debt. It's bit old, but it tells the story well.


----------



## notting

A jittery one - 

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-06-16/china-s-brewing-subprime-crisis


----------



## notting

Catch a glimpse of how China's Communist dictators raise people out of poverty and miraculously lift them into a middle class of consumers that will transform the economy -


----------



## notting

China is slowly showing it's hand pretending it is an investigation as lying is getting harder.



> $15 Billion of Loans Backed by Fake Gold Trades
> “copper and aluminum stockpiles may have been pledged multiple times as collateral for loans.
> Chinese government to rein in credit by raising borrowing costs in recent years created a surge in commodities financing deals that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates to be worth as much as $160 billion.”




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-26/china-finds-15b-of-loans-backed-by-falsified-gold-trades.html


----------



## Paavfc

So all the gold and copper that everyone thought available is not even there..bodes well for commodities


----------



## luutzu

If you follow the arguments of Political "realists" like John Mearsheimer, you'd just hope China doesn't rise too much or too quickly... You'd hope it would just chug along, maybe crashes now and then... just surviving.

According to political strategists, if China [or any power] were to rise at the rate it has, there will be wars with its neighbours, wars with the US.

Wars because for China to ensure its security and free access to the seas, it must try to push American power and influence further back and away from the Pacific. To do that, it must first befriend or otherwise influence its neighbours to the East China sea (Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan) and the South China Sea (Vietnam, Phillipines etc.) and thereby have control of the seas its trade and military must go through. 

With the recent push to claim 90% of the South China Seas and disputed islands and air space with Japan etc., I don't think China is playing its card right.

So if you think long term, you'd want a China bear, not a raging bull.

A raging China bull will results in a militarily powerful China, one that for simple national security reason, must try to control the seas leading to the Pacific... and if it has enough gun power behind that necessity, it's going to clash and that's not going to be good for anyone.


----------



## notting

Watch our for your Chinese mail order brides.
They might look cute but they be evil - 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101798443


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Watch our for your Chinese mail order brides.
> They might look cute but they be evil -
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/101798443




And this is relevant how?

On topic, the slowdown is becoming more and more obvious at the ports, airports, train stations...


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> And this is relevant how?
> 
> On topic, the slowdown is becoming more and more obvious at the ports, airports, train stations...



Yeah I've been saying it's going to fall over may be  Port Headland has had no such slowdown.  They will speed things up to survive till the thing is literally falling over. Perhaps the tipping point has been reached, if there is a real slow down not just a sentimental one based on 60 minutes reports that woke people up to the property farce a while back.

Sincerely China is the most evil regime the world has ever had to cope with.  Far worse than Nazis far more murderous, with relentless torture, re education camps, slavery, human organ harvesting, animal cruelty and on and on. They are much more sneaky about it and will not invade or attack until they are sure they will succeed unlike the Nazis.

It's relevant as it's bringing attention to the dangers of foreigners doing business with China.
How they target foreigners when it comes to so called clampdown down on corruption, after steeling foreign technology and pretty much everything else they can get their hands on.  
The link is an example of how the Chinese girl friend was obviously nothing of the sort and used to bring down this foreigner and this company.


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> Sincerely China is the most evil regime the world has ever had to cope with.




That's a bit much. 
You should read into how European colonises other continents; how the US expand from their East Coast to California; how there's no more Aborigines in Tasmania; what Imperial Britain, Spain, Japan did to China... and we all have some idea of what Nazi Germany did to Europe and Russia and the Jews there.

The unfortunate thing for China is its political system meant it also does harm to its people and ultimately itself too.

Xi is saying he want to clean up corruption in China. If he's genuine he hasn't read history...

From my knowledge, the first guy that tried that was Lord Shang of the Ch'in around 300BC - he got torn, literally, to five pieces soon after the King, and his patron, died.

The other one was the last Emperor of the Ming - seeing his empire weakened through corruption, leading to civil unrest and external threats, particularly the Manchu... he tried to curb graft and corruption, collect proper taxes to the state and not to tax collectors' pockets...  trying to strengthen China again... 

End game was the Manchu walk into Beijing, get rid of the Li Royal family but otherwise kept all other Ming lower level officials and structure in place.

And of course the second-last Qing Emperor of China [Puyi's Uncle] - who tried to rebuild the Navy, the army etc... the dude died at 36 under suspicious circumstances.

-------

MacroEconomically, politically speaking, there is a limit to China's rise, to its potential. 
Its political structure will mean continual social unrest; 
Its large but aging population will probably mean some economic decline and possible social unrest resulting from its lack of social safety nets, pension plans, healthcare systems etc.

Its lack of IP, patent law and enforcements meant there's little incentives for Chinese entrepreneurs and inventors and investors doing R&D - this will mean it's just a place for cheap labour.  And a labour, manufacturing intensive economy known for cheap knock offs and poor quality goods, poisonous food... cannot become rich enough to rule the world.


I heard from some lecture that "Japan got rich before it got old; China will get old before it get rich."  

Ask any older Australians who hasn't gotten rich how their kids are treating them. Or how the welfare system see their years of service and contribution to society are valued when they can no longer keep on contributing.


Militarily, economically, China is not as rich or as strong as it and the world thought... yet it already starts to flex its military muscles and upset pretty much all its neighbours except for maybe Russia. Driving them into each others and Uncle Sam's arms.

Its leadership should do what Mearsheimer suggests and practice better hypocrisy like the United States. You know, make friends, speak of peace to the world, fund more Hollywood movies by Michael Bay showing off the second aircraft carrier fighting against sea monsters or something. 

----

I think investors, particularly Australian with regards to the resources stocks, put too much emphasis on the rise of China as a requirement for Australian prosperity.

Australia has done pretty well long before the China boom.


----------



## satanoperca

luutzu said:


> That's a bit much.
> You should read into how European colonises other continents; how the US expand from their East Coast to California; how there's no more Aborigines in Tasmania; what Imperial Britain, Spain, Japan did to China... and we all have some idea of what Nazi Germany did to Europe and Russia and the Jews there.
> 
> The unfortunate thing for China is its political system meant it also does harm to its people and ultimately itself too.
> 
> Xi is saying he want to clean up corruption in China. If he's genuine he hasn't read history...
> 
> From my knowledge, the first guy that tried that was Lord Shang of the Ch'in around 300BC - he got torn, literally, to five pieces soon after the King, and his patron, died.
> 
> The other one was the last Emperor of the Ming - seeing his empire weakened through corruption, leading to civil unrest and external threats, particularly the Manchu... he tried to curb graft and corruption, collect proper taxes to the state and not to tax collectors' pockets...  trying to strengthen China again...
> 
> End game was the Manchu walk into Beijing, get rid of the Li Royal family but otherwise kept all other Ming lower level officials and structure in place.
> 
> And of course the second-last Qing Emperor of China [Puyi's Uncle] - who tried to rebuild the Navy, the army etc... the dude died at 36 under suspicious circumstances.
> 
> -------
> 
> MacroEconomically, politically speaking, there is a limit to China's rise, to its potential.
> Its political structure will mean continual social unrest;
> Its large but aging population will probably mean some economic decline and possible social unrest resulting from its lack of social safety nets, pension plans, healthcare systems etc.
> 
> Its lack of IP, patent law and enforcements meant there's little incentives for Chinese entrepreneurs and inventors and investors doing R&D - this will mean it's just a place for cheap labour.  And a labour, manufacturing intensive economy known for cheap knock offs and poor quality goods, poisonous food... cannot become rich enough to rule the world.
> 
> 
> I heard from some lecture that "Japan got rich before it got old; China will get old before it get rich."
> 
> Ask any older Australians who hasn't gotten rich how their kids are treating them. Or how the welfare system see their years of service and contribution to society are valued when they can no longer keep on contributing.
> 
> 
> Militarily, economically, China is not as rich or as strong as it and the world thought... yet it already starts to flex its military muscles and upset pretty much all its neighbours except for maybe Russia. Driving them into each others and Uncle Sam's arms.
> 
> Its leadership should do what Mearsheimer suggests and practice better hypocrisy like the United States. You know, make friends, speak of peace to the world, fund more Hollywood movies by Michael Bay showing off the second aircraft carrier fighting against sea monsters or something.
> 
> ----
> 
> I think investors, particularly Australian with regards to the resources stocks, put too much emphasis on the rise of China as a requirement for Australian prosperity.
> 
> Australia has done pretty well long before the China boom.




Very, very well said. A great delight to read after a long day.

Cheers to you


----------



## notting

I find it odd that this is not being covered in our media.
That should concern all Australians.





https://twitter.com/JigmeUgen/status/484032540194639873?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=rosetangy&utm_content=484033487674953728




https://twitter.com/hashtag/OccupyCentral?src=hash


----------



## notting

luutzu said:


> That's a bit much.




No it's not nearly enough.
The Nazis did not do this to their own people, neither did Stalin.  It's on a scale the world has never seen and it's done for profit and political suppression.  This is just one issue.

Read this book - “Bloody Harvest: The killing of Falun Gong for their organs,” 

“What we’ve got here is a new, shocking, different form of evil,” said Matas (Canadian minister) “The Chinese Communist party.  On Torture killing and organ harvesting of their own people for political reasons and profit.


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> No it's not nearly enough.
> The Nazis did not do this to their own people, neither did Stalin.  It's on a scale the world has never seen and it's done for profit and political suppression.  This is just one issue.
> 
> Read this book - “Bloody Harvest: The killing of Falun Gong for their organs,”
> 
> “What we’ve got here is a new, shocking, different form of evil,” said Matas (Canadian minister) “The Chinese Communist party.  On Torture killing and organ harvesting of their own people for political reasons and profit.




The world is cruel.

That's not to excuse the Chinese or anyone, but if you give anyone absolute power, even some power, and chances are they'll abuse it and kill every opposition. They don't have to be Chinese to abuse it. 

Look at Stalin and his suppression, Hitler and just about every other authoritarian regime.

Throughout history, probably the only people who didn't abuse their absolute power (on their own people) were Cincinatus (Roman Republic), maybe the emperor Augustus, Claudius, Marcus Aurelius; in China: Duke Chou (1000BC ?) and Zhuge Liang (220 CE).

I only know of one instance where a group of people led a successful revolution, gained all the power, and set about establishing a new country where the power are given back to the people - the United States of America.

China is unlucky, so are many other other countries and people who had fought for independence and liberty.

So the comrades are doing what any unchecked power would do - knock heads. And just because most of those heads are also Chinese, it doesn't make them any more or less evil if others knock some other race's heads.
-----

I heard somewhere there's around 25 protests a day in China. 
So any coverage by western media is a rare thing.

------

*With regards to China's economy:*

A youtube discussion from Uni of California TV (UCTV) with some strategist makes interesting reading. He goes:

1. Before 2008, China's strategy was of 'peaceful rise' - just keep making money, get rich and not upset the neighbourhood. 

2. Since then, that very smart grand strategy was pushed aside by new fractions within the party and replaced with one that is more militarily assertive - pushing for claims everywhere.

The result of this is that weaker neighbours got scared and make alliances. They trade more with each other and buy less Chinese goods.

An example he gave was Huawei being banned by just about every country from selling their products - under national security issues; or refuse import of Chinese solar panels under guise of anti-dumping laws. The Mongolian open up their mines for tender and JV with anyone but the Chinese.


As an investor, the rise of China is not a good thing. You'd of course hope it doesn't collapse and bring the world markets (and hundreds of millions of already poor Chinese) with it, but as long as it doesn't collapse, a plateuing China is a safer and more profitable outcome as it will strengthen the weaker Asian states, and those states will more likely buy more from freedom loving countries like Australia rather than enriching an unfriendly giant.

And we as Australian, we get to sell to both a developing China that still need to feed and house its billion people AND also sell to faster growing Asian neighbours.

----

So how are the other countries trying to benefit from China? By not covering or caring about its abuse on its own people. It's a good thing for outside powers because an unstable China mean a weak China, and a weak China mean the rich Chinese will diversify and invest and deposit or lend their monies with other countries.

All these civil unrest and fights with its neighbours is like a dream come true for the great powers. 

I think you like China more than it or you think.


----------



## notting

China lies again.

Whilst Xi was making speeches to the world saying China was not expansionist -



> The incursion bids by the Chinese People's Liberation (PLA) came even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized on the need to find a solution to the Boundary Question during their meeting in Fortaleza in Brazil yesterday on the sidelines of the BRICS summit.



http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2014/07/16/Chinese-Troops-Make-Two-Incursion-Attempts-in-Ladakh/article2333610.ece

Don't forget whilst China was calling for an end to the world hacking the very next day the Chinese were caught red handed hacking into Austalia's Reserve bank.


----------



## notting

> China faces what would be the second default in the nation’s onshore bond market after a builder said it may fail to make a payment next week, the latest sign of stress in the world’s biggest corporate debtload.
> 
> Huatong Road & Bridge Group Co, based in the northern province of Shanxi, said it may miss a 400 million yuan ($US64.5 million) note payment due July 23, according to a statement to the Shanghai Clearing House yesterday.
> 
> Chairman Wang Guorui is assisting authorities with an official investigation, it said, without elaborating. Wang was removed from the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Shanxi Committee on July 9 for suspected violations of the law, according to an official statement and media report last week.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...s-investors-20140718-3c4xs.html#ixzz37mY9PDPX




More cracks


----------



## notting

New home prices down in 55/70 cities last month.  
Just like the 2008 Down turn pattern evolving but with a lower high to 2010 similar down turn.  

Yikes!


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> New home prices down in 55/70 cities last month.
> Just like the 2008 Down turn pattern evolving but with a lower high to 2010 similar down turn.
> 
> Yikes!
> 
> 
> View attachment 58722




Why the "Yikes!"?

Why can they just stimulate again like they did on the past 2 occasions?


----------



## notting

waterbottle said:


> Why the "Yikes!"?
> 
> Why can they just stimulate again like they did on the past 2 occasions?




The Chinese dictators have been stimulating for the last 6 months, by stealth.  Trying not to be seen doing it.  Not working so well, but today's results are better on factory output. 
The point is there is no transformation going on it's the same old tiger.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> More cracks




I think this is really important.  So, a challenge for you (and anyone else with an interest)...to take the opposite perspective.  Please tell me why it might be possible for the Chinese Government to hold this together as the banking system is slowly transformed into something less cosseted and more reflective of a real mechanism for transferring assets around in service of a more market-driven economy.  I have already been bathed in the disaster scenarios, so there's no need to go there.


----------



## notting

DeepState said:


> I think this is really important.  So, a challenge for you (and anyone else with an interest)...to take the opposite perspective.  Please tell me why it might be possible for the Chinese Government to hold this together as the banking system is slowly transformed into something less cosseted and more reflective of a real mechanism for transferring assets around in service of a more market-driven economy.  I have already been bathed in the disaster scenarios, so there's no need to go there.




OK here is a brighter look on the situation than what I normally give  -



> I am a Chinese working as a China analyst at a think tank. It is becoming more and more apparent to many people, that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) knows it is on its last straw of survival.
> 
> The party is facing severe and endlessly increasing systematic stress on all fronts:
> 
> 1. Increasing external oppositions from all other countries in the world including all of China's neighbours. They are forming more and more alliances and becoming more outspoken with rising strengths against China, in addition to increasing anti-China sentiment from people in all other countries. Many countries including Canada and Australia and U.S. have just tightened their immigration policy to prevent Chinese from entering their countries. Even on these casual internet message boards, when you look past the paid Chinese propaganda professional commenters, you notice rising general anti-China feelings from all over the world.
> 
> 2. Increasing internal severe and massive violent social unrest and anti-CCP mutiny from people of all Chinese living places. To beat down internal dissent in mainland China, the CCP every year is forced to spend even more money than on its massive military budget. All the semi-external places (Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, Macau) are fighting harder and harder to break free from China. Taiwan is for all practical purposes already a separate democratic country, with its own army specificly trained to fight the PLA, and anti-China sentiment there (especially among younger Taiwanese generation) is at all-time high after seeing how China violently suppress Hong Kong as an example of "reunification". This whole situation is continuously worsened by the free flow of information, with Chinese people knowing more and more from travelling abroad and learning about truths from jumping beyond the "Great Fire Wall" on the internet.
> 
> 3. Its own economy and social system never able to advance to higher level beyond mass skill-less manufacturing, due to complete absence of law and common morals. High technology and innovations and scientific development all require many citizens working together voluntarily contributing long term in a system they trust, with things like rule of law, no censorship on knowledge, no restrictions on speech and expression, copyrights, open minds, patents, common morals when collaborating and trading with each other etc. These qualities are all destroyed in modern China by the CCP. When was the last time you heard an announcement of technology development or innovations or scientific breakthrough coming from a Chinese organization / company / university? You haven't because there ain't any. Unlike mass manufacturing factory work, high level human developments cannot be forced by or bought with a dictator's central planning. The only way contemporary China gets these things is from stealing and spying from all other countries e.g. secretly installing spywares in foreign executives' electronic devices when they enter China, but that has become much more difficult since the whole world has caught on to their act.
> 
> This systematic fatal flaw is why you do not see even one Chinese brand or company that can compete in the international market in any industry of the human race. For example Lenovo, who is already one of the few Chinese brands some people may have heard of, cannot make either the chips that power their computers or the operating system that run them, so it is just one of many plain vanilla boxmakers without any competitive advantage offering only cheap price. Another example Huawei is blacklisted by many countries and international customers because everyone knows Huawei's products send all communication data back to the CCP. This CCP weakness is also why China cannot produce even one home-grown science Nobel Prize winner in its history, nor one famous business guru, nor one cultural figure, not even a third rate national soccer team. No rule of law in China also means no people or businesses, both Chinese and foreign, ever invest in China long-term or on a large scale because everything frequently change on a whim along with the political climate. No one trusts any contract or agreement in China because they are always broken by the Chinese and there is no legal protection whatsoever, meaning China can never advance to a knowledge economy or service economy. Your business can be taken from you any second by the military police working for someone with "guanxi". No rule of law also ensures Shanghai fail to become a financial city despite the CCP dumping huge resources into it for 30 years.
> 
> 4. China's mass skill-less manufacturing itself is going away to other countries due to sharply increasing costs and openly hostile and unfair business environment full of frauds and sanctioned protectionism and government robberies. The labor force is endlessly more demanding in wages and benefits expectations and working conditions, especially since all of today's Chinese workers are single child used to coddling and indulgement by their own family. It is further worsened by the rise of robotic automatic manufacturing and 3D printing. This situation is a death knock to the "growth-based legitimacy" of the CCP, which is the only thing CCP can rely on for continuing ruling power. For sure Chinese people tolerate or even "like" the CCP when the economy seemingly explodes, but when one day it crashes and the country's hopeless bad shape hit them in the face the people's "support" for the CCP will turn on a dime.
> 
> Since six months ago, all the major economic indicators for China have gone on a continuing nosedive - including manufacturing orders, export volume, commercial investments, graduate employment rate, corporate credits, foreign capital inflow, domestic consumptions, real estate prices, consumer spendings, luxury goods demand, HSBC Service PMI, survey of business sentiments etc. Suddenly all the rich Chinese tourists gobbling up luxury goods at different world cities seem to have disappeared altogether. The CCP is on its last resort of printing literally trillions of worthless renminbi to dump into massive failing and zero ROI "state projects" that only enrich corrupted CCP officials. China's huge multi-year increase of M2 money supply (it is afraid to publish the figures citing "national security") causes way more long-term harm on itself than short-term help, and when that is over there is nothing else the CCP can do to prop up the failing economy. China currently ranks 82nd on GDP per capita and that is the highest it can go before falling sharply in the coming near future.
> 
> 5. Fierce unstoppable purges and mutually-destructive infighting among different factions within the party, who are imprisoning and killing each other every day. This power grab goes on under the laughable thin guise of "anti-corruption drive" when everyone knows all officials in china are corrupted. No work to manage the country or guide the ship is being done while this is going on.
> 
> 6. Its many previously-suppressed fatal problems have all grown too big to be contained all catching up to the CCP e.g.
> 
> - severe carcinogenic poisonous pollution everywhere in air and water and soil and their own food etc, with the WHO issuing multiple warnings on Chinese population having the fastest cancer growth rate in the whole world
> - skyrocketing unrepayable bad debts of all kinds everywhere, its true scope no one on Earth knows because all data from China are faked
> - biggest housing bubble in human history, in addition to innumerous crumbling "ghost cities" and shoddily-built vanity project "GDP-creating" infrastructure that cannot and will not be used
> - rapidly aging demographics with a 140:100 male:female ratio (from one child policy, culture of "leftover women", and many Chinese families killing their own daughters so as to chase boys)
> - world's no.1 wealth inequality, with a Gini coefficient rivaling 18th century France just before the French revolution
> - complete absence of soft power / cultural influence / social attraction, partly due to CCP censorship. One result of which is minimal and sharply dwindling number of foreign professionals and tourists and students going to China. It also means the CCP only has force as the only tool to use on the international stage
> - all Chinese chasing foreign-brand goods and services while ditching low-quality Chinese-brands, who have a well known history of poisoning their own food and their own baby formula so as to make more money. This dashs CCP's hope to build indigenous industries and a domestic consumption economy
> - corruptions and fraud throughout the whole rotten core of a system
> - desperate mass exodus at all levels of Chinese society to escape the country using emigration or buying houses / study abroad or marriage to foreigners or plain old human smuggling, resulting in all able Chinese leaving taking huge amounts of talents and money out of the country
> - the law of large numbers, "middle-income trap", "Minsky moment", "Lewis inflection point" all work against the growth-based legitimacy CCP desperately needs for its survival
> 
> Most importantly, the CCP knows that if 1.4 billion Chinese learn about basic human qualities such as morals, truth, justice, human rights, rule of law, fairness, freedom, universal values etc the CCP will be toppled very quickly. Therefore its state-controlled brainwashing education and propaganda machinations ensure a complete lack of morals and regard for laws in all Chinese growing up and beyond. Coupled with the fact that Chinese do not work well together, this results in failure in all basic aspects of human interactions with every modern Chinese, whether it is business trading / personal dealings / technology development / creating innovations / human communications / scientific research / artistic expressions / teamwork collaborations / academic exchange etc. Another propaganda brainwashing technique used by the CCP is to make all Chinese people pathologically nationalistic and very emotional on this issue, so the CCP can always create and point to some "foreign enemies" so as to hide all the domestic crises and government robberies going on. This attention-diverting technique is the same trick magicians have used for more than a thousand years to fool their audience.
> 
> An interesting example would be the Chinese reaction to this report - they are expected to dismiss this report as total rubbish, accuse the author "unpatriotic" for saying the truth, shout China will only become richer and stronger than all other countries, yet they will give no counter-arguments and they will make no acknowledgement to the horrible factual conditions and complete lack of basic human qualities listed above in modern China. Ironically, the longer Chinese people deny or refuse to acknowledge the CCP problem, the longer they are only digging themselves into the hole and hurting themselves for any chance of recovery, causing the chinese economy to crash even further. Consider the example of Google, Facebook, Wikipedia, Youtube, Whatsapp, Twitter, Instagram etc - these services are all completely banned in China while at the same time the rest of the planet are on these services every second communicating ideas with each other, making friends, exchanging knowledge, doing business, working together, improving science and technology and arts, and advancing humanity.
> 
> Some people say China economically developed a lot in past 20 years, but the truth is this "development" is actually debt borrowed against the future. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre of their own students, in order to survive and hang on to power, the CCP was forced to pursue short-term explosive economic growth that sacrifice everything else, including a foundation or potential for long-term economic and social development. This "scorched earth" policy is like winning the lottery for corrupted CCP officials who can rob a lot of money from the country in the short-term before escaping to America. The only entity left to suffer is China's future from this point on, a country that has been turned by the CCP into a place with no law, no morals, no system for future scientific or economic or social development, no spiritual support apart from money, no trust or cooperation among Chinese, no trust or goodwill from foreigners, no other country as friends, all resources sold away cheaply, entire environment and air and water and soil and food fatally polluted, only social recognition is to make a lot of money for "face", no creativity or personal development for Chinese young people, a populus not allowed to know the truths and not allowed to say the truths.
> 
> The end result is that majority wealth of this "debt borrowed against the future" has gone to the 0.000000001% elite ruling class "princeling" CCP families (about 250 of them) who have already smuggled trillions of dollars abroad along with their U.S. passports and their own children (all Chinese elites and Politburo members hold foreign passports, with U.S. and U.K. being the most sought after choice). For the CCP in 1989, 1.4 billion people is great central-planning asset when the country start from nothing and you order them to do backbreaking mass manufacturing repetitive factory work 20 hours a day without workers protection of any kind. But in the 2014 borderless knowledge economy when that no longer works, 1.4 billion immoral and uncooperative and selfish and undeveloped and angry Chinese contained in a lawless system without any hopes of growth is very, very dangerous liability for the CCP.
> 
> All debts against the future have to be paid back - China is no exception. That moment may arrive a bit later than expected but it surely will come, as it has on 100% of occasions in human history. In normal countries bad conditions correct themselves with short periods of market ups and downs, but in China the CCP suppress all problems and criticisms until inevitable system meltdown. For China the moment has arrived to suffer the consequences for all its own chosen actions in past 30 years. All the festering fundamental systematic problems listed above and much more, are only getting worse and worse everyday until one day when the system can suddenly no longer bear.
> 
> Think USSR in 1989.
> 
> ( Cliff notes summary for the smartphone generation with ADD, ADHD and Asperger's:
> 
> - The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) signed a deal with the devil to pursue miraculous short-term economic growth
> - Miraculous short-term economic growth has been achieved, now China has hit the wall on its path of no return, many bad conditions have caught up
> - CCP cannot go on externally, it cannot go on internally, economy has no way to go but greatly down, many fatal cancers and huge structural problems from the past now overwhelming the country
> - Something has to break, what happens is anyone's guess, guaranteed to greatly impact China and the world


----------



## DB008

*China could be the next Japan: Merrill Lynch analysts*




> China risks heading in the same worrying direction as Japan, a nation now synonymous with decaying first world economies, according to financial strategists.
> 
> The report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch has urged the Chinese authorities to act swiftly to prevent lapsing into a stagnant economic phase similar to its island neighbour's.
> 
> "In general, it appears to us that the problem facing China today may be more serious than Japan's," the report said.
> 
> "We chose 2014 to be year zero because there are strong signs that the house cycle in China is tipping over."
> 
> But the Merrill Lynch report, released this week, is the first to suggest China may go the way of the first Asian tiger economy as bad debt accumulates rapidly and assets begin to deflate in value.
> 
> "If our assessment is correct, then banks, developers and building materials should start to underperform significantly reasonable soon," the report said.
> 
> The analysts said China's emerging issues were likely to continue as it was facing similar problems to those confronting Japan before its asset bubble burst after peaking in 1989.
> 
> These included imbalanced growth, government stimulus, overcapacity, an overwrought housing market, and a severely under-capitalised financial system.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/china-could-be-the-next-japan-merrill-lynch-analysts-20140912-10fiqm.html#ixzz3DBtgQnOk


----------



## Smurf1976

notting said:


> New home prices down in 55/70 cities last month.
> Just like the 2008 Down turn pattern evolving but with a lower high to 2010 similar down turn.



There's a noticeable difference in the pattern this time compared to the previous two downturns.

Looking at that chart, last time it was an abrupt collapse. Plane just suddenly dived, fell out of the sky and crashed nose first into the ground type of situation. 

This time it's more gradual. Engines slowed down, plane lost altitude but remained flying as such until it reached the ground still horizontal and with the wheels down.

There does seem to be a difference in the detail. Whether or not that really matters I'm not sure, but this one does seem more orderly.

Looking at the long term and the impacts on Australian exports, there's a difference in the commodities needed to build versus to operate what is already built. Building needs steel (iron ore + coking coal) and other metals etc to build lots of infrastructure. Just running once you've built it needs oil (petrol etc), thermal coal (for electricity) etc. So some differences there on an individual commodity level.


----------



## DeepState

From Wall Street Journal:  Almost Half of Wealthy Chinese Want to Leave, Study Shows 
15 Sept 2014

[Although many wealthy want to leave China for all the well worn reasons, the interesting part for me is that there are a number who want to enter China too (albeit the net figures probably skew towards exits from wealthy Chinese given weight of numbers).  Pick your poison].  

Is someone able to post up a link to the Barclays Report from whence this arose??  My search skills aren't strong enough.  The brief details extracted from this report are on the wires too.

---

Nearly half of wealthy Chinese are planning to move to another country within the next five years, according to a new Barclays survey.

The survey, which questioned more than 2,000 high net-worth individuals with more than $1.5 billion in total net worth, found that 47% of Chinese respondents said they want to move, compared with a global average of 29%.

Singaporeans were the second-most eager to flee home, with 23% planning to relocate in five years, followed by 20% for the U.K. and 16% for Hong Kong. Indian and American rich are the least likely to move, with only 5% and 6% of respondents saying they would relocate.

The top reasons Chinese cite for moving abroad are better educational and employment opportunities for children (78%), economic security and desirable climate (73%), and better health care and social services (18%). Hong Kong is their top destination (30%), followed by Canada (23%).

But for all those money drain, China is also on the receiving end: It’s a top destination for Singapore’s high net-worth individuals, with 30% saying they want to move to the Middle Kingdom.

Around the world, a growing proportion of high-net-worth individuals are earning their wealth through entrepreneurship. They have bigger risk appetites than those who inherit money and are more willing to move to find the most promising business opportunities.

Asia, set to become the largest regional market by number of millionaires by the end of 2014 according to Barclays, has created a new generation of wealthy individuals keen to educate themselves and their offspring overseas.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

DeepState said:


> From Wall Street Journal:  Almost Half of Wealthy Chinese Want to Leave, Study Shows
> 15 Sept 2014
> 
> [Although many wealthy want to leave China for all the well worn reasons, the interesting part for me is that there are a number who want to enter China too (albeit the net figures probably skew towards exits from wealthy Chinese given weight of numbers).  Pick your poison].
> 
> Is someone able to post up a link to the Barclays Report from whence this arose??  My search skills aren't strong enough.  The brief details extracted from this report are on the wires too.




https://wealth.barclays.com/en_gb/home/research/research-centre/wealth-insights/volume-18.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Some blogger........

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/which-global-hegemon-is-on-shifting.html


----------



## notting

China opens up it's markets somewhat to the west, whilst ramping the crap out of stocks in the local communist controlled media.
Seems some may be wising up right now!!!


----------



## notting

China's energy demand has increased by 8% per anum over the last decade.
China's energy consumption is the best indicator of what is happening in the economy.
Right now Chinas energy consumption is stagnant.
China isn't growing!!!


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> China's energy demand has increased by 8% per anum over the last decade.
> China's energy consumption is the best indicator of what is happening in the economy.
> Right now Chinas energy consumption is stagnant.
> China isn't growing!!!




There has been lots of talk of a China-induced crash over the past 6 years but nothing has materialised. Why is this time different?


----------



## CanOz

waterbottle said:


> There has been lots of talk of a China-induced crash over the past 6 years but nothing has materialised. Why is this time different?




The broken clock...


----------



## notting

waterbottle said:


> There has been lots of talk of a China-induced crash over the past 6 years but nothing has materialised. Why is this time different?




The Chinese market has done nothing but crash for the past 6 years.  What are you talking about?


----------



## nulla nulla

notting said:


> The Chinese market has done nothing but crash for the past 6 years.  What are you talking about?




I thought it was the "rate of growth" that was slowing? As far as I know China has not gone into recession. The economy is still growing around 7% but down year on year with previous years. Have I missed something?


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> The Chinese market has done nothing but crash for the past 6 years.  What are you talking about?




What 6 year crashing are you talking about?


----------



## DeepState

nulla nulla said:


> I thought it was the "rate of growth" that was slowing? As far as I know China has not gone into recession. The economy is still growing around 7% but down year on year with previous years. Have I missed something?




Slowing growth (we could express it as insufficient growth relative to expectations) is enough to cause a correction.  For example, the composition of China's slowing growth has likely had an impact on iron ore prices.


----------



## notting

DeepState said:


> What 6 year crashing are you talking about?




The original point being that people who have been betting against the Chinese market for the last 6 years have got it totally right whilst the rest of the worlds markets had stunning rallies.







I've showed it till June because at that point I felt and was saying in this forum it was no longer worth shorting as continuing to bet with a 6 year downtrend is pushing your luck. About 2 months ago I called it a buy as it broke through 2500. All I did was trash it till then.
The recent drop in fuel prices is also very helpful for this basket case.

The fuel usage is indicating they are not growing.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> The original point being that people who have been betting against the Chinese market for the last 6 years have got it totally right whilst the rest of the worlds markets had stunning rallies.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 60753
> 
> 
> I've showed it till June because at that point I felt and was saying in this forum it was no longer worth shorting as continuing to bet with a 6 year downtrend is pushing your luck. About 2 months ago I called it a buy as it broke through 2500. All I did was trash it till then.
> The recent drop in fuel prices is also very helpful for this basket case.
> 
> The fuel usage is indicating they are not growing.




Oh...so by crash, you didn't mean fall relative to cash.  You meant fall relative to anything else that went up a lot more.  Interesting.  So Iron ore has boomed as because it has fallen less against the USD than the Argentinian Peso in the last three years or so.  I see.

About two months ago you made a call to buy China equities. I'm always on the lookout for people with talent in the markets.  So, I checked. Back as far as June, the most bullish comment about Chinese equities that had been made was that the market was being ramped....

"China opens up it's markets somewhat to the west, whilst ramping the crap out of stocks in the local communist controlled media.

Seems some may be wising up right now!!!"

- 9 Dec 2014 in this thread.  Not quite two months ago.  Not a BUY unless something in there is code for BUY.


About 2 Months ago is October.  Let's allow Sept to November.  This is all I could find on a forum-wide search:

"Yeah, the best place to be is IN commodities right about now!" - 15 October in (Commodities), not exactly a BUY on the Chinese market, particularly given the context that it wasn't in a China thread.

I must have missed it.  Could you please point out where you changed your call on the Chinese market?  Do you post as a different identity as well?  A bullish alter-ego?

Thanks.


----------



## notting

DeepState said:


> Thanks.



 Those comments I made were not in this thread.  I can't be bothered going through it all.  It's exactly as stated.


----------



## notting

China is a total basket case and the ramp they have done in the local media, whilst opening up the markets to foreign investment and the lower oil prices were reason enough to get long at 2500, not for very long as I indicated above.  But it still could go higher on the back of lower oil.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> Those comments I made were not in this thread.  I can't be bothered going through it all.  It's exactly as stated.




It's lucky for you I have so much more time and could be bothered doing a forum wide search then, as outlined.  Took about 3 minutes because I don't do it much. The outcome was exactly as stated.  If you are disputing the truth of what I am saying, I will yield immediately to tangible and coherent data. In this context, that would be a clear statement saying Buy Chinese equities (against anything else) around about two months ago.

I predict a boom of unbalanced argument and historical revision relative to something else I have yet to idenfity at this time but can nominate upon request. I can also predict a total collapse of it. If you need confirmation of the success of that call, it can also be provided upon request. 

Thanks.  Consistency is important and, FWIW, your views save me searching out a bear case.  You are nothing if not motivated for a negative view of a situation and a positive view of the accuracy of prognostications. Pretty balanced on the whole.


----------



## tech/a

DeepState said:


> It's lucky for you I have so much more time and could be bothered doing a forum wide search then, as outlined.  Took about 3 minutes because I don't do it much. The outcome was exactly as stated.  If you are disputing the truth of what I am saying, I will yield immediately to tangible and coherent data. In this context, that would be a clear statement saying Buy Chinese equities (against anything else) around about two months ago.
> 
> I predict a boom of unbalanced argument and historical revision relative to something else I have yet to idenfity at this time but can nominate upon request. I can also predict a total collapse of it. If you need confirmation of the success of that call, it can also be provided upon request.
> 
> Thanks.  Consistency is important and, FWIW, your views save me searching out a bear case.  You are nothing if not motivated for a negative view of a situation and a positive view of the accuracy of prognostications. Pretty balanced on the whole.




Were you head of the debating team in Uni?


----------



## notting

Believe me I don't feel lucky about you not finding those comments or chart posts.
I'm not hanging out here like some dim witted day trader looking to be validated about being right.  Which when you understand trading is basically a death wish.

The motivation for being so negative on China for these past 6 years was to counter the absolute drivel in the media pretty much all over the world about the miracle of China.  
When US 60 minutes finally did a story on the ghost towns about 18 months ago and then when Goldman Sachs basically started saying exactly what I had beens saying about China around 10 months ago, finally! I didn't feel the need to be so vocal about it. 

The world was wising up!

I also said in this forum that when Xi got in it was the best thing that had happened for China for about 60 years.
So my views are softening but there is so much damage and back log of the greatest scam overbuild the world will ever see.
They have just been playing a game of how long can we keep this up for, for over a decade.
The thing finally started halting when babies where being taken into hospital last winter with respiratory problems due to the pollution.
The reason they signed the carbon reduction thing with the US wasn't because they suddenly feel responsible, it's simply because they will suffocate themselves if they don't and that they probably aren't going to be growing anyway so the pollution will naturally slow down.


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> Believe me I don't feel lucky about you not finding those comments or chart posts.
> I'm not hanging out here like some dim witted day trader looking to be validated about being right.  Which when you understand trading is basically a death wish.
> 
> The motivation for being so negative on China for these past 6 years was to counter the absolute drivel in the media pretty much all over the world about the miracle of China.
> When US 60 minutes finally did a story on the ghost towns about 18 months ago and then when Goldman Sachs basically started saying exactly what I had beens saying about China around 10 months ago, finally! I didn't feel the need to be so vocal about it.
> 
> The world was wising up!
> 
> I also said in this forum that when Xi got in it was the best thing that had happened for China for about 60 years.
> So my views are softening but there is so much damage and back log of the greatest scam overbuild the world will ever see.
> They have just been playing a game of how long can we keep this up for, for over a decade.
> The thing finally started halting when babies where being taken into hospital last winter with respiratory problems due to the pollution.
> The reason they signed the carbon reduction thing with the US wasn't because they suddenly feel responsible, it's simply because they will suffocate themselves if they don't and that they probably aren't going to be growing anyway so the pollution will naturally slow down.




It's alright, Notting.  Just banter.  Personally, I do appreciate your posts and I do read them with interest.  They scare the **** out of me on first review each time, largely because what you say is largely plausible. I know they come from a pervasively pessimistic perspective relative to whatever might pass for a moderate viewpoint at the time.  It's up to me to balance it out if it needs to be done.  

Thanks.


----------



## History Repeats

Long China into 2015


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> Believe me I don't feel lucky about you not finding those comments or chart posts.
> I'm not hanging out here like some dim witted day trader looking to be validated about being right.  Which when you understand trading is basically a death wish.
> 
> The motivation for being so negative on China for these past 6 years was to counter the absolute drivel in the media pretty much all over the world about the miracle of China.
> When US 60 minutes finally did a story on the ghost towns about 18 months ago and then when Goldman Sachs basically started saying exactly what I had beens saying about China around 10 months ago, finally! I didn't feel the need to be so vocal about it.
> 
> The world was wising up!
> 
> I also said in this forum that when Xi got in it was the best thing that had happened for China for about 60 years.
> So my views are softening but there is so much damage and back log of the greatest scam overbuild the world will ever see.
> They have just been playing a game of how long can we keep this up for, for over a decade.
> The thing finally started halting when babies where being taken into hospital last winter with respiratory problems due to the pollution.
> The reason they signed the carbon reduction thing with the US wasn't because they suddenly feel responsible, it's simply because they will suffocate themselves if they don't and that they probably aren't going to be growing anyway so the pollution will naturally slow down.




Yea I saw a couple of doco around the same time. Looks scary.

So what's your thoughts on what would happen if the Chinese economy goes down the tube? Or goes the way of Russia?

I mean, corruptions and incompetence aside, a lot of their major projects and factories seems to mainly operate to keep workers employed. If those goes you'd get hundreds of millions without work and there would be a lot of social unrest. Then patriotism and nationalism might need to be turned up and who knows, start a war or two.


----------



## notting

One positive is that they have been kind of achieving the slowest crash I've ever seen.
They still have a few trillion reserves in international currencies and are able to run surplices off the back of massive slave labour forces. 
It's a bit like a privately owned US prison that uses the prisoners to profit.
They have not been that concerned about everyone dying at around 50 or 60 from air pollutants causing cancers catching up with 'the people' down the track. 
It's good economic policy in Communist Parties eyes. 
The cheapest of pension schemes. 
A most convenient truth.
Micro bullets that the media calls mystical Chinese mist of the peace loving land of the people.
The younger generation will not have to fund the oldies because they will all be dead. 
However when babies started choking they realised they had taken it a bit far and people were getting a bit pissed off.
So their curbing it, a little, and boasting about that to 'the people' in the state controlled media.
The Chinese communist party have thousands and thousands of armed vehicles that have four machine gunners sitting out the top four corners to cover all directions. They roam the streets when there is any hint of unrest. The people are all brainwashed into thinking fringe issues are just Americans causing trouble.
In the end it's an information war.
In this globalised information age it will be harder for the Chinese propagandists to control the people.
But so far they are pulling it off.
They are not as concerned about shrinkage as the world thinks.
They are just trying to look like they are playing along, whilst lying through their teeth and steeling everything from developed countries.


----------



## Ann

G'day all, Happy New Year to you!

There has been some good action on the China Shanghai Composite Index. A good run upward has delivered it above the 3000 level. It is far too early to call a shape but if the price zig zags back and forth above the 3000 level it may form into a flag or pennant shape. That would leave it sitting on top of a nice long flagpole. If it does form a flag/pennant on a flagpole it is likely to be a fine strong move upward on a breakout. 

Only the locals are permitted to buy into this index but a number of years back a few funds were invited into China to buy into the index for a short period of time. One of them was AMP and they floated a fund called AMP Capital China (AGF). This stock tends to mirror the China Shanghai Composite fairly closely for anyone wishing to catch any potential rises in the Chinese market. (Disclosure: Holding)


Now for the chart of the China Shanghai Composite Index...


----------



## CanOz

FXI is having a much tamer go trying to follow the Shanghai market....suspect its mostly H-Shares. You think there would be some good pairs trading between the mainland and the HK markets right now...


----------



## Ann

CanOz said:


> FXI is having a much tamer go trying to follow the Shanghai market....suspect its mostly H-Shares. You think there would be some good pairs trading between the mainland and the HK markets right now...




Very, very interesting chart CanOz, perhaps this may be a massive buying opportunity for future rises in this index!


----------



## notting

> *Shanghai has ditched its official economic growth target for 2015*, becoming the first major city or province in China to abandon such metrics as government policy shifts towards a focus on growth quality over quantity.
> 
> The move signifies both a nationwide move to switch focus from hitting annual targets with some of the fastest growth rates in the world — now that those rates are waning — as well as an effort to de-link growth from promotions at the local level.
> 
> Growth in gross domestic product has long been a key metric to evaluate the performance of local officials, helping to determine whether they were promoted. But President Xi Jinping last year said that “we can no longer simply use GDP growth rates to decide who the [party] heroes are”.
> 
> At least 70 smaller cities and counties abandoned GDP targets last year, mostly in areas with high poverty rates and those with special agricultural or ecological value.* - First ghost cities abandoned, basically*
> But the move by Shanghai — one of four Chinese megacities with province-level administrative status — marks the first such move by a highly developed urban area. At least two municipal districts in Shanghai had previously cancelled gross domestic product targets for 2015, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
> 
> Analysts say excessive focus on gross domestic product has contributed to environmental degradation and urban sprawl as officials encouraged heavy industry and bulldozed agricultural land to build housing developments.




I'm not bearish on China equities any more so just posting this regarding Ausi trade and Iron Ore bearishness etc.


----------



## notting

Even though China doesn't want deflation, loosing the communists slave labor force is out of the question

[video=youtube_share;zFwwperDhlg]http://youtu.be/zFwwperDhlg[/video]

Chinese police beat up teachers who went on strike on January 23. All teachers at Number Ten Middle School of Changheng Town of Xinxiang City, Henan province marched in the streets protesting under pay. Scores of police were dispatched to beat up the unarmed teachers. More than a dozen teachers were severely injured (as seen lying on the ground in this video). Three had bones broken.


----------



## StockTrader010

Also still bullish on Chinese stocks. Chinese governement limiting margin trading had only a limited effect. Equities seem to be coping with the shock quite well.


----------



## Miner

OMG - before you read this let me warn that what I read and reproducing is not written by me but collected information from advertisement of Motley Fool magazine . So do not shoot me. However if it is true then I will be utterly trouble like millions of Australians and business houses. So please DYOR. Regarding copy right - this information collected from public domain and no where copyright was mentioned in the body of advertisement. 

Courtesy to Motley Fool : 

The scale of China's construction boom is off the charts. The country used more cement between 2011 and 2013 than the U.S. did during the entire 20th century, and its voracious hunger for Aussie iron has rained cash on our country.

China devours two thirds of the world's seaborn iron ore. So goes its appetite, so goes the price of iron ore.


You can't get a read on how China is faring by focusing on government-published numbers, though. It's the worst-kept secret in finance that no one trusts those numbers.

Instead, you’ve got to do your own homework, get on the ground, and find independent sources to get a directional health of the economy's health. For example, inventories and accounts receivable are growing faster than sales at the Chinese consumer companies we're following -- a classic red flag of low-quality growth.

And then there's construction, which matters most to Australians. Once again, independent sources paint a darker tale. Chinese steel demand fell 3.4% in 2014, per the China Iron & Steel Association -- the first drop in 14 years. Also, Caterpillar expects the Chinese market to shrink in 2015. Neither surprises us given the vast multitude of idle projects (and Cats) that we spotted.


With this much idle machinery, it's no surprise that Caterpillar sees Chinese construction shrinking in 2015.
China has overbuilt.
Unconfirmed report says 28% of the homes in Beijing had not used electricity for six months. In New York, he reckons that number might be more like 4%. Meanwhile, researchers at China's South-western University of Finance and Economics found that 49 million (22%) of Chinese apartments sold in 2013 were vacant. 
In theory, those homes will fill up as Chinese move from the country to the city. In reality, there are enough empty apartments in China to house 6 years' worth of urban migration. That's more than an entire year's worth of global iron ore demand going up in smoke.
Combine that lost confidence with the lack of long-term financing for projects in China (typical of most emerging economies) and it’s easy to see how the wheels of construction can so quickly grind to a halt.
All that’s troubling enough as is, but iron ore supply is also growing.

UBS forecasts that iron ore’s oversupply will 6X from 35 million this year to more than 200 million by 2018. The major miners are fixated on gaining market share, and they will, but at the expense of crushing the iron ore price for years to come.
Some analysts think higher-cost supply will come offline in response to lower prices. Again, in theory, that's true. In reality, miners have many motivations -- faith, hedges, survival, and politics -- that will inspire them to keep producing at a loss, ruining the party for everyone. And, speaking of oversupply now is a good time to zoom out and recall that the iron ore price has spent most of the past 15 years at much lower prices than today:

Growing supply and falling demand is a bad combination.

Even Rio and BHP will find this price environment a bumpy road . And mining services companies? They’re not only in the same boat -- they’re tied to the anchor.
Navigating Tough Times
A *major slowdown in mining will have knock-on effects for the rest of the Australian economy. Higher unemployment, lower capital expenditures, and more sour loans are all on the cards*


(will reproduce in iron ore thread)


----------



## DeepState

How likely is the Yuan peg to be lowered in the next year?  
What are the trade-able consequences for this? Why?

--



--



--



--


----------



## DB008

*China's Solution to $3 Trillion Debt Is to Deal with It Later*




> (Bloomberg) -- China’s government has a creative solution to address repayment concerns hanging over more than $3 trillion in regional debt. It will deal with it later.
> 
> The Finance Ministry issued a 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) quota for local governments to convert maturing high-cost debt into lower-yielding municipal notes to be repaid at a future date, according to a March 8 statement. Questions left unanswered include whether investors will be forced into the swap, how much transparency there will be over assets involved and whether the liabilities will strain the nation’s finances.
> 
> China’s bond risk rose the most in a month on March 9 even as debt-rating companies welcomed the government’s plan to address regional debt, which Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. estimates may have reached 25 trillion yuan, bigger than German’s economy. The ministry’s 500 billion yuan municipal bond trial and the auction of 100 billion yuan of special bonds is insufficient to meet local-government financing vehicle debt due this year while funding budgets, Moody’s Investors Service said.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-10/five-questions-on-3-trillion-local-debt-pile-plan-china-credit


----------



## CanOz

Thats a Bloody big can to be kicking down the road DB!


----------



## Bintang

CanOz said:


> Thats a Bloody big can to be kicking down the road DB!




Yes, but it will be in the company of a lot of other big Cans already kicked down the road by USA, Europe and Japan.
The interesting question is which Can will get to the end of the road first.


----------



## notting

Congratulations if you sold your property in China 2 or so years ago!!



> More on China, where the government may be forced to relax property regulations and support the country's weak real estate sector after sales dived 16.3 per cent in January and February, stoking concerns of a sharper-than-expected downturn.
> 
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...s-take-over-20150312-3rxog.html#ixzz3U95TOCz1
> 
> China’s economy is already behind target as monetary easing shows few signs of traction.
> 
> Bloomberg’s gross domestic product tracker, which draws on that data as well as measures such as electricity production, shows economic growth slowing to 6.28 per cent in the period, the weakest pace since the start of 2009.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...s-take-over-20150312-3rxog.html#ixzz3U98k0yGg


----------



## notting

Whoops, getting a bit desperate, we need the peoples help to take dramatic steps to curb pollution.
Better motivate them with a video.
Quick pull the video they are going to revolt!!
http://www.vox.com/2015/3/10/8183881/pollution-is-changing-the-way-china-does-politics



Coal anybody?


----------



## Bintang

notting said:


> Whoops, getting a bit desperate, we need the peoples help to take dramatic steps to curb pollution.
> Better motivate them with a video.
> Quick pull the video they are going to revolt!!
> 
> Coal anybody?




I wonder how *less cheap* all the _cheap stuff_ from China would have been over the years if China had made all the necessary investment along the way to mitigate its chronic air pollution.

Great video. (I had to switch to youtube to get the English subtitles).
Thanks for posting notting.


----------



## StockTrader010

The chinese bull market is crazy the last couple of weeks. Especially Chinese tech is starting to look like a bubble. I wonder how much longer Chinese regulators will wait untill they pull the plug :.


----------



## DB008

*We Traveled Across China and Returned Terrified for the Economy​*



> China’s steel and metals markets, a barometer of the world’s second-biggest economy, are “a lot worse than you think,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who just completed a tour of the country.
> 
> What he saw: idle cranes, empty construction sites and half-finished, abandoned buildings in several cities. Conversations with executives reinforced the “gloomy” outlook.
> 
> “China’s metals demand is plummeting,” wrote Kenneth Hoffman, the metals analyst who spent a week traveling across the country, meeting with executives, traders, industry groups and analysts. “Demand is rapidly deteriorating as the government slows its infrastructure building and transforms into a consumer economy.”





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/we-travelled-across-china-and-returned-terrified-for-the-economy​


----------



## notting

They didn't open up and are not opening up their markets to the world so the world can share in the bonanza. The Chinese are doing it so that the world gets the Invoice - 



> Kaisa Group Holdings has become China's first real estate company to default on its US currency debt. The default coincides with the expiration of a 30-day grace period on $US52 million of missed interest payments on two dollar-denominated bonds, according to a Hong Kong stock exchange statement Kaiser is struggling to service 65 billion yuan ($US10.5 billion) of debt owed to both onshore and offshore lenders
> 
> The developer's problems have rippled across the region's debt market, where investors starved of yield elsewhere in the world have swooped in to boost returns, it's raising concern that defaults will spread after overseas noteholders bought a record $US21.3 billion of bonds issued by Chinese property companies.




Re the the Chinese Stock market madness averaging PE of 50 -



> China's stock trading fever has made the Shanghai Stock Exchange the world's biggest in terms of turnover, surpassing the New York Stock Exchange, but the explosion in volumes has exceeded the ability of the exchange's software to report it.



Oh ye, The most prolific hacking and internet information manipulating machine on earth the - Chinese Communist party, can't get it together to run software to report accurately on turnover volume in the stock market!!!

Yeah sure.

That's right, the Dictators are turning it over to the people.  They have suddenly allowed *the people* to open 4 million new trading accounts in the last year alone, yes 4 Million. Now that's gotta create some kind of Frenzy.  'We can't do it with property any more the Communist Party thinks. I guess there's one last thing to do.'

Turn it over as quietly as possible.

Take the money and run.


----------



## rimtas

notting said:


> They have suddenly allowed *the people* to open 4 million new trading accounts in the last year alone, yes 4 Million





From our point of view 4 million is a big number, but from Chinese point of view it is a drop in the ocean. How much 4 mil is over all population? 0,5%, or less?  
Will you wonder if there are some 100K new accounts in Australia for comparison?


----------



## PennD

rimtas said:


> From our point of view 4 million is a big number, but from Chinese point of view it is a drop in the ocean. How much 4 mil is over all population? 0,5%, or less?
> Will you wonder if there are some 100K new accounts in Australia for comparison?




Yes, but if they are 4 million "wealthy" Chinese then it would be quite significant...
Majority of chinese have very little so should really be left out of any % equation... 
Anyone know the previous years growth rates?


----------



## notting

rimtas said:


> From our point of view 4 million is a big number, but from Chinese point of view it is a drop in the ocean.




4 million is an absolute monster number in a market that had relativity very few players relative to that 10 fold increase in one year. When else have you seen a market running an average PE ration of 50? Never! Nor has there ever been an opening up on such a scale in such a short period of time. :sheep:


----------



## DB008

*We're Just Learning the True Cost of China's Debt​*


> The true cost of the debt that China’s real estate developers peddled to eager international investors during a five-year property boom is now becoming clear.
> 
> Having found themselves shut out of local bond and loan markets seven years ago, a band of developers began looking elsewhere for funds. First an initial public offering, and then a dollar bond sale. It became a well-trodden path. By 2010, a core group of four -- Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Renhe Commercial Holdings Co., Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. -- raised a total of $5.6 billion. On Monday, Kaisa buckled under $10.5 billion of debt and defaulted.
> 
> China’s home builders became the single biggest source of dollar junk debt in Asia amid government measures to prevent a property bubble. Developers already funneled $78.8 billion from international equity and bond markets into an industry that’s grown to account for one third of the world’s second-biggest economy. Most of the first rush of dollar offerings, in 2010, falls due in the next two years.
> 
> “It was an unintended consequence of the Chinese government that property developers are selling equity and debt to offshore investors,” said Ben Sy, a Hong Kong-based managing director in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s private banking division. “There happened to be huge demand from international investors in the past few years driven by the intense search for yield.”




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/china-wall-of-exported-junk-developer-debt-falls-on-global-funds​


----------



## StockTrader010

When the time comes and the trend reverses, what ETF would be the best play to short?


----------



## Tyler Durden

> Now, just as the economy is coming off the boil – prompting solemn warnings from the country's top leaders – China's sharemarkets are on a tear, more than doubling in value in the past year and adding more than $5 trillion to market capitalisation.
> 
> The Shanghai Stock Exchange's daily turnover exceeded that of Wall Street's New York Stock Exchange for the first time in its history last month.
> 
> Price-earnings ratios (a valuation method for shares), particularly for riskier small-cap stocks, are looking stretched by conventional measures, prompting concerns over whether prices are entering bubble territory, or at the very least, whether the market's stellar bull run is sustainable.
> 
> An image that went viral of a streetside banana vendor watching the stocks.
> An image that went viral of a streetside banana vendor watching the stocks. Photo: @wmiddelkoop via Twitter
> The amount borrowed by investors to purchase stocks has quadrupled from a year earlier, fuelled by a recent surge in margin trading, which, in turn, is often funded by China's infamous shadow lending sector.
> 
> Investors continue to pile in at an increasing rate. Five million new trading accounts were opened in March. And, just last week, another 3.3 million new share accounts were created; 10 times more than normal.
> 
> Many economists and demographers point to the lack of a comprehensive social welfare net in China as a key reason for its people's stereotypical streak of conservatism and a high savings rate.
> 
> However, the inverse is also true, and many, especially younger Chinese, are entrepreneurial, willing to take risks, particularly when there is fast money to be made.
> 
> Anecdotes run rife of ordinary Chinese investors selling their homes (as the housing market cools) or quitting their jobs to speculate in – or, as it's known colloquially in Mandarin, to "stir-fry" – stocks.
> 
> Every significant sharemarket move is reported on the front pages of not just the financial dailies, but often on the more widely read city tabloids.
> 
> However, perhaps best encapsulating the sharemarket craze's mass appeal was a photo that went viral on Chinese social media this week of a street vendor selling bananas, engrossed on his laptop with share price graphs clearly visible on the screen. It evoked the famous anecdote of the "roaring twenties" just before the Great Depression hit, where famed US investor Joe Kennedy's shoeshine boy offered him a stock tip: "Buy Hindenburg."
> 
> Instead, Kennedy sold all his holdings, thinking: "You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over."




http://www.smh.com.au/business/shar...-as-chinas-economy-slows-20150504-1myq9r.html


----------



## DB008

StockTrader010 said:


> When the time comes and the trend reverses, what ETF would be the best play to short?




http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/#each-overview

I'm sure there are more short Aussie ETF's out there...


----------



## qldfrog

DB008 said:


> http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/#each-overview
> 
> I'm sure there are more short Aussie ETF's out there...



BBOZ but also BEAR
BEAR is not leveraged, but then as per my experience, what is the point?
By default, i used BEAR for a while but if the market falls by let's say 10%, you get a 10%  (well not that exact sure figurebut around) fall of bear which means you need to buy a lot to balance your exposure somewhat and yet inflation tick and you do not get returns..can not win and better stay in cash in most cases

i so switched  from BEAR to BBOZ when it was released,
Just unsure at the actual asset equivalent, so a bit of a guess as to what the price means exactly


----------



## StockTrader010

DB008 said:


> http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/#each-overview
> 
> I'm sure there are more short Aussie ETF's out there...




Thanks! I'll dig into it


----------



## notting

Many investors keen to invest in the booming Chinese stock market now more open to foreigners have gotten their first taste of what kind of returns you should expect -



> You may have been following the curious case of the Hong Kong-listed Hanergy which dropped 47 per cent in 24 minutes, erasing a accumulated (notional value) of $24 billion.
> 
> Turns out that value has been an illusion for some time. In his latest blog post, Bronte Capital's John Hempton writes about an extraordinary trip he made to Hanergy's main factory in China six weeks ago in which he concluded that "Hanergy barely existed":




http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/

Such a wonderful bunch of people.


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> Many investors keen to invest in the booming Chinese stock market now more open to foreigners have gotten their first taste of what kind of returns you should expect -
> 
> 
> 
> http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/
> 
> Such a wonderful bunch of people.




Can anyone post of chart of this company, would love to have a look at it from purely a T/A point of view.


----------



## peter2

Hanergy was available to trade on the Saxo bank platform.  Weekly chart of 566:HK.


----------



## skyQuake

satanoperca said:


> Can anyone post of chart of this company, would love to have a look at it from purely a T/A point of view.








Kind of scary because this would be the kind of stock I'd like to buy. Easy support and resist levels, shallow pullbacks indicating buyer str. 

A stop @ 6.59 would have gotten some pretty awful fills


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> View attachment 62707
> 
> 
> Kind of scary because this would be the kind of stock I'd like to buy. Easy support and resist levels, shallow pullbacks indicating buyer str.
> 
> A stop @ 6.59 would have gotten some pretty awful fills




I don't think I've ever read about a CEO shorting his own fradulent company before...

http://www.ibtimes.com.au/hanergy-ceo-correctly-bets-his-shares-would-fall-1449346



> Li Hejun, CEO of Hanergy, apparently bet on his stock plunge. On May 18, he increased his short position by 796 million shares, which is equivalent to betting that his firm shares would tumble.




Another version... slightly different wording. Shares were pledged as collatoral for a loan.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac33df3c-021b-11e5-82b9-00144feabdc0.html#slide0


----------



## notting

skyQuake said:


> Kind of scary because this would be the kind of stock I'd like to buy. Easy support and resist levels, shallow pullbacks indicating buyer str.




Well that really is foolish Mr Quake.
A sensible investor would be buying into the index on breakouts.  Your far less  likely to get such nasty surprises when a party member decides to take a dump on the people at the end of the day.


----------



## notting

> China's *state-owned* investment company, Central Huijin Investment, has confirmed it recently sold some mainland-listed shares in China's top four banks and other listed financial institutions, as well as exchange traded funds (ETF).
> 
> The disclosure late yesterday came *after public data from the Hong Kong stock exchange* showed that Huijin had reduced its holdings in China-listed A shares of China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) .
> 
> News of the sale was cited by traders as one factor behind a plunge in China share markets earlier in the day.




Open the markets to all the people at once as well as loosen it up for foreigners, create a frenzy, dump on them.  Dictators make the market and the profit.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

China is in a similar situation to the USA at the end of the 19th Century.

It is a "go to for results place ".

It will have it's booms and busts interspersed with wars, as the US had, but I would punt on China rather than the US atm.

gg


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Garpal Gumnut said:


> China is in a similar situation to the USA at the end of the 19th Century.
> 
> It is a "go to for results place ".
> 
> It will have it's booms and busts interspersed with wars, as the US had, but I would punt on China rather than the US atm.
> 
> gg




I wouldn't punt on either - the ponzi's are all the same, only the timing is unknown - which over margined, under regulated market will hit the tipping point of a levered sell tsunami first? It will be spectacular.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Uncle Festivus said:


> I wouldn't punt on either - the ponzi's are all the same, only the timing is unknown - which over margined, under regulated market will hit the tipping point of a levered sell tsunami first? It will be spectacular.




Thanks Uncle. 

A Ponzi by definition occurs when considerable muppets have a belief in one view or sector of the market, and are fed back a con, to confirm their belief. China is no Ponzi.

Both the USA and China are "Go To" places, and require chips to play.

I just believe the Chinese are more adept at the present time.

gg


----------



## History Repeats

To 6000 shanghai composite


----------



## Ann

A quote from this source dated 13/3/15....http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/now-is-the-time-to-buy-into-the-shanghai-composite-amp-says-20150313-1429z6



> Until now, a lack of accessibility has meant the Shanghai Composite has been excluded from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which drives billions of dollars in passive capital.
> 
> "The next survey for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will begin in April with the results decided by the end of June. If progress with Stock Connect is made quickly enough the Shanghai Composite could potentially be included for the first time as early as this year, which would prompt a massive influx of passive funds," Mr Ho said.
> 
> China's government wants to attract more institutional foreign investors to reduce the high level of volatility currently in the market.




This could boost the Shanghai Composite Index over its double top of around 6000. I think we are living in interesting times!


----------



## skyQuake

Ann said:


> A quote from this source dated 13/3/15....http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/now-is-the-time-to-buy-into-the-shanghai-composite-amp-says-20150313-1429z6
> 
> 
> 
> This could boost the Shanghai Composite Index over its double top of around 6000. I think we are living in interesting times!




imo the media has blow it all out of proportion. The announcement is scheduled for 8am, 10th June I believe.
MSCI will at best start with partial inclusions in the single digit % (as per the 2014 consultation)

When you compare this expected flow with the volume traded as %of Mcap in the past month, it makes the whole thing look very wobbly.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks Uncle.
> 
> A Ponzi by definition occurs when considerable muppets have a belief in one view or sector of the market, and are fed back a con, to confirm their belief. China is no Ponzi.
> 
> Both the USA and China are "Go To" places, and require chips to play.
> 
> I just believe the Chinese are more adept at the present time.
> 
> gg




Not sure about that? The only 'chips' you need for this casino are an unlimited amount of printed curency, which the Chinese have well and truly trounced all others. Have a read of this - 

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-peoples-republic-of-debt

One interesting bit of fact - China’s $21 trillion in net new debt incurred between 2007 and 2014 accounted for more than 36% of the $57 trillion in cumulative global debt growth following the global financial crisis.

This is the problem for them - when farmers only tend to their crops out of market hours you know the end of the fresh money line has been reached? This could be the black swan event that triggers the global sell off - crash!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102747012

When the Chinese market crashes it will create a wave of 'dependant' market sell-offs around the globe - Sydney real estate for example.


----------



## CanOz

Some jumpers about apparently, suicidal over the recent declines....depending on how we go testing the too levels we should see if this is the 'pop' we've been waiting for or the market once again gets support and charges higher...


----------



## notting

> The bottom line is that China’s last comparable lending boom produced a nonperforming loan burden at least 20x larger (as a percentage of total loans) than the figure Chinese lenders are reporting today (and perhaps 30x!)




Yeah that about says enough.


----------



## rimtas

In order to understand China's bull markets, one must look at the long term charts. As one can see, the current rise is not much different from historical ones, and even still too small considered a long period of consolidation prior to launch. 6000, 7000 or more would be already a concern, but the fact that China rose more than 100% in a year is nothing and tells nothing.


----------



## satanoperca

Thanks for the chart Canoz,

Just thought I would have a look myself, your chart didn't go back far enough.

Went back two years, interesting, then a 5 year chart, WOW. Parabolic it is.

Nothing can go wrong at all, it has only double in the last 12 months. Surely it can go higher.

How much $$$$ is in this exchange? Does anyone know?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shanghai-composite-index-falls-into-correction-territory-1434682051

and from the linked article, these little snippets



> China’s seven-day interbank repurchase rate, which is the borrowing cost among banks, jumped from 2.2% to 2.73% over the week






> *China’s margin debt reached a record $419 billion Friday*






> Some analysts think Beijing is now more likely to step in with further stimulus, helping prop up the markets.



 F--k me, of course they do. Weasels.



> Since November, the People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates three times and banks’ reserve-requirement ratios twice.




Dropping interest rates always has positives effects, everyone knows that. 

*This could be the black swan event that no one saw coming. *


----------



## rimtas

By applying Wave Principle to label the advance, one can make a case that Supercycle Wave (V) is  in progress, which will carry prices much much further than 2007 Top, and furthermore, because the consolidation of 2007-2014 can be considered as Triangle, the aftermach of it is a "Thrust", meaning no sizable corrections or sideways consolidations until the top is reached(looking at monthly). This doesn't mean that SSEC can't fall 20% along the way, but those must be quickly reversed. 

Other scenario suggests that Wave (IV) is still in progress and before China starts Wave (V) bubble, it will first fall right back to the 1000 level to test the previous Cycle IV resistance. But basically to see this happening it should start crashing right from current levels and the previous months top should not be breached. 
In this case China will not be alone, expect the entire world will enter the collapse, with All Ords also heading to 1000 level. But looking at other Asian Indices such as BSE, TWI or Kospi I see very little chances for this to happen as they are finishing their multiweek corrections now and are ready to launch new waves to new highs..
  Next few months will determine which scenario is developing. One good indicator can be Hong Kong index-if it rises above May 28,500 top, consider China is in bull market, with 100% or more to go from current levels(basically only sky is the limit).

And margin debt is not the best indicator to determine Tops-debt can go as high as confidence remains. Usually near the top Margin debt  had been topped already months ago, this means that the deleveraging starts earlier than the top in equities.


----------



## satanoperca

rimtas said:


> see this happening it should start crashing right from current levels and the previous months top should not be breached.
> In this case China will not be alone, expect the entire world will enter the collapse, with All Ords also heading to 1000 level.




It seems to be crashing and fast, next week or so will be very very interesting.

Who could have predicted it, doubling in 12months is always sustainable. 

Go China, show us the way.


----------



## DB008

*Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless​*


> Rising up from the center of Beijing, not far from the Temple of Heaven, is the loudest voice in the wild east of the Chinese stock market.
> 
> It’s neither a bank nor a brokerage -- it’s the headquarters of Xinhua News Agency, long considered the “throat and tongue” of the Chinese government.
> 
> With the heady exuberance over Chinese stocks starting to fade, sowing fears of worse to come, investors are scouring state media for clues to the Communist Party’s thinking.





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/the-loudest-voice-in-china-s-stock-market-is-changing-its-tune​


----------



## Miner

Even this thread is aiming for Chinese Bull, we can not ignore the largest democracy with less government control .
But read what the Fed Bank Chief from India no stranger to world financial world recently said in London School of Economics 

The Indian central bank chief who saw the 2008 crash coming thinks the world is now facing Great Depression-era problems


----------



## waterbottle

Chinese central bank have already moved to cut interest rates by 25bp; have reduced reserve requirements too

This tells me two things:

PBOC is concerned about what could be unfolding
PBOC is not afraid to counter quickly

I think it is still too early to say if it will crash (i.e. 40-60% depreciation). Have to wait and see how the market responds to this move.


----------



## satanoperca

waterbottle said:


> Chinese central bank have already moved to cut interest rates by 25bp; have reduced reserve requirements too
> 
> This tells me two things:
> 
> PBOC is concerned about what could be unfolding
> PBOC is not afraid to counter quickly
> 
> I think it is still too early to say if it will crash (i.e. 40-60% depreciation). Have to wait and see how the market responds to this move.




The can just gets kicked again.

The Shanghai stock market has a market capitalization of approx 5.5T, with a 20% haircut in just two weeks, it has wiped out the equivalence of our entire ASX. 

While the PBOC has moved to try and slow things down, is the weight of their massive amount of debt really going to reverse the unreversible. 

Has become interesting.


----------



## CanOz

A weekly SC and a Daily...

An opportunity to buy soon, or a dead cat bounce....we'll see, either way the intra-day vol will be nice


----------



## waterbottle

CanOz said:


> A weekly SC and a Daily...
> 
> An opportunity to buy soon, or a dead cat bounce....we'll see, either way the intra-day vol will be nice




I would lean towards a dead cat bounce - but then again I'm not playing in Shanghai so my opinion is worthless :

Too much going on at the moment to justify a bullish sentiment. Besides, the last time there was a run-up like this (2006 & 2007) the following crash involved a dead cat bounce to ~60-75% of the preceding peak before it resumed the fall. If it plays out the same way this time around, then there is probably going to be a bounce lasting 2-3 months before the falls resume.

I'm not willing to put my money on it though, China is too scary for me ::


----------



## satanoperca

CanOz said:


> A weekly SC and a Daily...
> 
> An opportunity to buy soon, or a dead cat bounce....we'll see, either way the intra-day vol will be nice




Hi Canoz,

How are things in China?

Just curious, how will you define a dead cat bounce? Based on volume. 

I am expecting there will be some retrace over the next week, but look at the previous highs and then lows, it could be all the way to the bottom again.

Has the rapid increase in the index been based on fundamentals or gambling, we know the Chinese love a good bet.

Looking forward to being back in Shenzhen and Shanghai in coming months, fascinating country and culture.

China will one day rule the world.


----------



## CanOz

satanoperca said:


> Hi Canoz,
> 
> How are things in China?
> 
> Just curious, how will you define a dead cat bounce? Based on volume.
> 
> I am expecting there will be some retrace over the next week, but look at the previous highs and then lows, it could be all the way to the bottom again.
> 
> Has the rapid increase in the index been based on fundamentals or gambling, we know the Chinese love a good bet.
> 
> Looking forward to being back in Shenzhen and Shanghai in coming months, fascinating country and culture.
> 
> China will one day rule the world.




Heya mate, drop me a line when you're back, shout ya a drink at the Big Bamboo!

Actually the HHI and HSI have put in a solid short term low, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I'm not trying to predict here, just saying there are some key areas to watch. This week should be pretty interesting!


----------



## CanOz

> 06:57 (CN) China Shanghai stock exchanges amends rules on margin trading; To allow real estate to be used as collateral in margin calls - Chinese press - Source TradeTheNews.com




Two bubbles 1 stone?


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Two bubbles 1 stone?




That sounds fking crazy. Talk about liquidity mismatch. 

More like 2 bubles with 1 pin.


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> 06:57 (CN) China Shanghai stock exchanges amends rules on margin trading; To allow real estate to be used as collateral in margin calls - Chinese press - Source TradeTheNews.com




But I thought my house was safe and I cold totally go for it!  - China Town.



> Two bubbles 1 stone?




LOL

Further alarming development.

Market insiders have been chattering about the coming end of the partnership between HSBC and China's Markit for months, HSBC is ending its sponsorship of the indicator because of pressure from Beijing and the insane charges Beijing was manipulating into the independent data collection to squeeze out genuine transparency. 

They also allowed a government run pensions fund to now purchase stocks.
In summary, Communist Pigs popped the bubble by selling down to 4500 by liquidating some of  China's state-owned investment company, Central Huijin Investment,and are now supporting with the peoples savings at around the 3900 with the peoples pensions!!!  They will probably try to keep it in that range to give an air of stability.


----------



## CanOz

I reckon it might be too little too late and the brokers are holding some big losses with clients that can't or won't pay. So they put this rule in to cut off the bleeding before it really gets out of control...


----------



## CanOz

Since the highs, out of 16 days, there have been 9 afternoon sell offs, 1 unchanged and 6 higher closes than the morning.


----------



## satanoperca

Hi Canoz,
Will contact you once i have confirmed next trip back to China, up on the gold coast at the moment, sorta feels like Shanghai with a little more English.

I dont see any difference with brokers in China use property as collateral on margin loans, THE BROKERS/BANKS in Oz do the same thing. I have some empathy for the Chinese, they are be suckered into the western casino after working so hard for their savings.

Cannot see the index rebounding much further, the world has nearly reached debt saturation, just another year or two to go and pssssh the deflation will start. The index will follow suit.

Greece is the first major card to be shown. We didnt learn sh....t from Lehmann. Hang the bankers i say, no better than ice/meth dealers.


----------



## waterbottle

Very scary... What will the world look like post-China crash? Would the Chinese civilians even tolerate a crash?


----------



## rimtas

waterbottle said:


> Very scary... What will the world look like post-China crash?




It will look like a bargain.


----------



## satanoperca

rimtas said:


> It will look like a bargain.




At what point will it be a bargain?

CRASHING NOW, jump in for bargains? No way, still got a way to go. 

Love to see the expression on 10's of millions investors faces aftwr margin call after margin call and 30 years savings disappear


----------



## qldfrog

satanoperca said:


> Love to see the expression on 10's of millions investors faces aftwr margin call after margin call and 30 years savings disappear



not sure I would love it, will be pained to be honest, Let's keep with Julia's spirit


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> At what point will it be a bargain?
> 
> CRASHING NOW, jump in for bargains? No way, still got a way to go.
> 
> Love to see the expression on 10's of millions investors faces aftwr margin call after margin call and 30 years savings disappear




It started the year at 2100, it's been a great year for any one in longer than 6 months.  If you put all your savings in after the move from 2100 to 3500 you were probably too stupid to hold onto your money no matter what you did. It hasn't even retraced to a normal fib retracement level of 61.8%. 

Let's see if it can get down to 3200 something to determine if it's really a bear market as apposed to just a berzerk market.


----------



## waterbottle

satanoperca said:


> At what point will it be a bargain?
> 
> CRASHING NOW, jump in for bargains? No way, still got a way to go.
> 
> Love to see the expression on 10's of millions investors faces aftwr margin call after margin call and 30 years savings disappear




I wouldn't.

Remember what happened the last time a tonne of investors lost cash i.e. GFC? Print print print. Investors as a collective, are too big to fail - letting them fail would be a political and social disaster. I'm sure that they'll find a new way to keep the cogs turning.


----------



## satanoperca

waterbottle said:


> I wouldn't.
> 
> Remember what happened the last time a tonne of investors lost cash i.e. GFC? Print print print. Investors as a collective, are too big to fail - letting them fail would be a political and social disaster. I'm sure that they'll find a new way to keep the cogs turning.




While i agree with your statement, it is only when govnuts stop this mantra that everything is to big to fail, then we/the world can finally move forward in a constructive/sustainable and productive way. People must learn, that gambling with your money and others rarely works out well in the short term and never in the long term.
Kicking the can just doesnt work in the long term. We need leaders with balls and direction, we need a populas that is accepting of what is fair and justifiable with hardwork. F...K LCD TVs and new cars and 5 IPs doesnt make our society a good one.


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> We need leaders with balls and direction, we need a populas that is accepting of what is fair and justifiable with hardwork.




Socialism and democracy would work perfectly if the humans on the whole could behave beyond their short sighted self interest.


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> It started the year at 2100, it's been a great year for any one in longer than 6 months.  If you put all your savings in after the move from 2100 to 3500 you were probably too stupid to hold onto your money no matter what you did. It hasn't even retraced to a normal fib retracement level of 61.8%.
> 
> Let's see if it can get down to 3200 something to determine if it's really a bear market as apposed to just a berzerk market.




What about the people who got in from 3686 to 5180?
There are definitely some people out there who are sitting on some big losses. 

Here are some charts I made:


----------



## waterbottle

Chinese brokers to start buying ~$20 billion worth of shares

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/05/business/fund-in-china-aims-to-stabilize-stock-markets.html?_r=0


----------



## notting

They were doing the buying in the morning they have switched to the afternoon for the moment. Maybe not, back in this morning.
It's a little troubling that they were ok with letting the market decline for 5 years but are not able to tolerate genuine volatility at this time.



> The good news is that the authorities in Beijing clearly are betting everything on a stock rally that's hasn't come: Stocks just sustained their biggest three-week loss in more than two decades. That's despite moves last week to loosen margin lending, cut interest rates, reduce reserve requirements, direct *the state-run media to churn out don't-panic articles*, you name it. Over the weekend, the government even suspended initial public offerings and set up a market stabilisation fund.
> 
> Margin traders, who increased their leveraged investments nine-fold in the last two years, to about $322 billion from $35.7 billion, have been rushing to close those positions for a record nine consecutive days. And the Shanghai Composite Index's plunge below the symbolic 4,000 level signals even more selling. Further, a slide in iron-ore prices last week suggests that Chinese demand is slowing more sharply than the government is letting on.
> 
> All of this indicates that the government's recent stimulus efforts aren't working. At a time when Xi's team should be strengthening China's financial system, they're just making it more fragile. What's needed are decisive steps to shore up domestic demand, not more market froth.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> They were doing the buying in the morning they have switched to the afternoon for the moment.




What a colossal amount of margin debt though...



> 08:54(CN) As of Jul 6th, China total margin debt CNY1.77T v CNY1.91T as of Jul 3rd (record 11th consecutive decline, largest daily decline) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## notting

Thankfully we were not concerned about a property bubble prior to this stock market route because now - 



> Authorities are tweaking rules aimed at supporting equities included this shocker: *Homes are now acceptable collateral for borrowing to buy more stocks.* Perhaps the least of the too-many-to-list problems with this idea is that property is difficult to liquidate when assets crash. The biggest is that China is sowing the seeds of a third financial time bomb to match its debt and stock bubbles.
> 
> The wording of China's new rules - and its list of "other assets" that can be used as collateral - will force brokers to become experts in valuing everything from property, to antiques, to art.




Perhaps they decided to implement Varoufakis economics - If your going to go, go hard.  

Leverage everything against every other thing and just blow the crap out of it.  They will have to forgive our debt and in the meantime we have built the country and shuffled our money into Ausi international apartments and Alibaba.


----------



## skc

Why ban short selling when you can ban long selling... this Chinese market is gettting beyond a joke.

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-m...spended-as-beijing-intervenes-20150707-gi6p2s



> Trading has been halted in more than 25 per cent of Chinese listed shares, in what appears to be the latest government-backed attempt to shore up the country's plunging equities markets.
> 
> The suspension of more than 700 mainly smaller stocks listed in Shenzhen since June 12 failed to lift the markets on Tuesday morning.
> 
> Stock market services company, Wind, said the majority of the companies had suspended their shares ahead of major news announcements, while the others were embarking on a restructuring.




http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/...told-dont-sell-caijing-report-20150706-gi68hu



> Independent media group Caijing reported the National Social Security Fund ordered the selling ban on Monday, which it said was communicated to fund managers during a series of phone calls.
> 
> It said they were ordered "not to sell a single share" by senior management. The state-pension fund had $159 billion of assets at the end of last year, split between bonds and equities.


----------



## sinner

Sentiment from the mainstream media seems horrible (who are suddenly experts on the Chinese market). Seems like a great environment for long setups...


----------



## skyQuake

sinner said:


> Sentiment from the mainstream media seems horrible (who are suddenly experts on the Chinese market). Seems like a great environment for long setups...




It seems whats happening right now is retail selling and insto buying.

Retail liquidating margin loans, insto (forced at gunpoint) to buy stock...

I would be a lot more comfortable with buying if the govt isn't pulling new policies out of their ar$e every hr.

In the A-shares, only about 30% of the companies are trading at the moment. Rest are limit down or halted :S


----------



## sinner

Here are some P/E ratios (Bloomberg sourced):

S&P500 (USA): 18.22
TSX 60 (Canada): 18.75
Stoxx 50 (Europe): 19.29
CAC (France): 24.31
DAX (Germany): 17.58
FTSE100 (UK): 20.56
S&P ASX200 (Australia): 20.02
Nifty (India): 22.29
Nikkei 225 (Japan): 23.09
KOSPI (Korea): 17.61

Meanwhile:

Shanghai Composite (China): 19.28
CSI300 (Shenzen, China): 17.47
Hang Seng (Hong Kong): *10.37*


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> Sentiment from the mainstream media seems horrible (who are suddenly experts on the Chinese market). Seems like a great environment for long setups...




Mainstream media in Oz or in China?



skyQuake said:


> It seems whats happening right now is retail selling and insto buying.
> 
> Retail liquidating margin loans, insto (forced at gunpoint) to buy stock...
> 
> I would be a lot more comfortable with buying if the govt isn't pulling new policies out of their ar$e every hr.




Agree. They are definitely exacerbating the panic. Halting trading really is such a dumb move. The natural response when the shares eventually come out of the halt is inevitably panic selling... 

Or may be the Chinese government can make-whole every investor (gambler) by nationalising every listed company at the investor's purchase price. There you go... the ultimate put option.


----------



## McLovin

Ease the restrictions on Chinese on gambling in Macau, stock market problem fixed.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Interesting. How long till this flows on to Sydney & Melbourne real estate prices....? Already hitting the $AU.

Preliminary results from the China Household Finance Survey
•31.5% of respondents plan to reduce their stock holdings
•12.3% said they plan to increase their stock holdings
•Remaining saying they do not plan to change their holdings
•For Q2 4.8% of stock investors bought homes, compared with 2.3% recorded in Q1
•*Of those who bought property, 70% came from households that have made money in the stock market.*

It's taken longer than I thought but the inevitable has just started. Nothing is 'contained' anymore.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> •*Of those who bought property, 70% came from households that have made money in the stock market.*




You mean that's what they wrote on the form.  Reads better than 'unlimited profits from my state backed labor camp.'


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Over priced markets and assets including currencies and commodities are adjusting to the correct prices now. China is not exception. Those days Analysts ignored Japan and talked about Asia Ex-Japan. I am sure now they will talk about Asia Ex-China. We should see sell off in gold next. It could be double whammy for some countries. However there will be winners in every situation.


----------



## waterbottle

Uncle Festivus said:


> Interesting. How long till this flows on to Sydney & Melbourne real estate prices....? Already hitting the $AU.
> 
> Preliminary results from the China Household Finance Survey
> •31.5% of respondents plan to reduce their stock holdings
> •12.3% said they plan to increase their stock holdings
> •Remaining saying they do not plan to change their holdings
> •For Q2 4.8% of stock investors bought homes, compared with 2.3% recorded in Q1
> •*Of those who bought property, 70% came from households that have made money in the stock market.*
> 
> It's taken longer than I thought but the inevitable has just started. Nothing is 'contained' anymore.




I think it's all in the details. How much money did they make? Is the stock market their only source of income? This article from macrobusiness shows that the average household has relatively minimal exposure to stocks compared to their huge cash savings.
Although I would like it to be the case, I doubt that Chinese stock market crash would *directly* result in an Aus house price crash - whether it will do so *indirectly* is unknown.

Meanwhile the SSE has managed to pull out of its nose dive for the past two days following its announcement last week. If this keeps happening then maybe the bottom has been reached.


----------



## satanoperca

More like it is just taken a breath before the next dive down deep.

Coming weeks will show it true direction.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

We have arrived, the cycle is complete - all markets are centrally controlled now.

The problem now is what happens when even these markets get out of the control of the 'controllers'?

The exit door will be soon be crammed with over leveraged trend chasers that some will have to go to the barbers instead - to get a haircut. And not just a #1, this is the full skin head. That includes central banks, notably the ECB.

Bond volatility is causing some major accounts to be seriously trimmed. Dealers will want more collateral. A global sized negative feedback loop has started that the fat controllers have lost control of.


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> The problem now is what happens when even these markets get out of the control of the 'controllers'?




It collapses 9% on the open like a bullet (even with 25% of stocks suspended from trading (artificially holding value)).

Perhaps dumping State Owned equities on the market causing the initial 6% drop from the top dented *'the peoples'* confidence somewhat.  Especially as they did it without flagging it or any kind of warning.  The news of it came out of Hong Kong, a few days after the Chinese communist Party did it.


----------



## skyQuake

China CSI 300 futs: July trading at a 5% prem to Sept LOL


----------



## notting

And before the Chinese Communist party dumped a big chunk of it's holdings onto 'the people' - 



> On April 21, People's Daily, the mouthpiece of China's ruling Communist Party, made a bold prediction about the country's benchmark stock index.
> 
> The Shanghai Composite had just gone above 4,000 points, and investors were pouring money into the market. Brokers were opening four million new trading accounts a week to meet demand. The newspaper proclaimed the bull market was "just beginning."




They got away with that kind of crap for decades in the property market.  It's a bit harder to propaganda to the stock market.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> It collapses 9% on the open like a bullet (even with 25% of stocks suspended from trading (artificially holding value)).
> 
> Perhaps dumping State Owned equities on the market causing the initial 6% drop from the top dented *'the peoples'* confidence somewhat.  Especially as they did it without flagging it or any kind of warning.  The news of it came out of Hong Kong, a few days after the Chinese communist Party did it.




Do you have a link to that? Sounds like an interesting story.


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Do you have a link to that? Sounds like an interesting story.




Here's one link -

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/29/markets-china-bank-stakesales-idUSL3N0YK0B520150529


A further 25% of stocks have undergone 'voluntary suspension' and have not traded this morning!!  Company board members could have allowed their companies to trade but that may have lead them to becoming involuntary organ donors.


----------



## qldfrog

China Trading Halts Leave 43% of Entire Stock Market Frozen" Bloombergs as read on http://finance.yahoo.com/;
that is a sizable chunk indeed, wonder what is still trading?
CanOz any news as seen from the floor?(I assume you are on Mainland China?)


----------



## CanOz

Further to Skyquakes post:


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Here's one link -
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/29/markets-china-bank-stakesales-idUSL3N0YK0B520150529
> 
> 
> A further 25% of stocks have undergone 'voluntary suspension' and have not traded this morning!!  Company board members could have allowed their companies to trade but that may have lead them to becoming involuntary organ donors.




Well i guess they're using those funds to prop it all up now hey


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> China Trading Halts Leave 43% of Entire Stock Market Frozen" Bloombergs as read on http://finance.yahoo.com/;
> that is a sizable chunk indeed, wonder what is still trading?
> CanOz any news as seen from the floor?(I assume you are on Mainland China?)




Nothing to report here mate, the ridiculous amount of construction & environmental destruction continues unabated...i can hear the thump of the pile driver from my desk. Looking out my kitchen window alone i can see 13 construction cranes (national bird of China).

The only thing of interest i have noticed is while watching the book on the XINA50, lots of large blocks of contracts coming through when the market is zooming around all over the place. Today is quite tepid, at the moment.



> 11:05(CN) Follow Up: China Securities Finance said to seek at least CNY500B to support market - US financial press-May seek from PBOC and tap interbank market. - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## avion

CanOz said:


> Nothing to report here mate, the ridiculous amount of construction & environmental destruction continues unabated...i can hear the thump of the pile driver from my desk. Looking out my kitchen window alone i can see 13 construction cranes (national bird of China).




Which city are you based in if you don't mind me asking?


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Which city are you based in if you don't mind me asking?




Luxu (Looshoo), its a little town south of Wujiang, in Jiangsu province. Basically we're 40km south west of Shanghai CBD.


----------



## notting

The downside of a command economy



> What happened? Experts identify several causes. China's slowing economic growth is one. Risky trading practices are another. All along, bullish propaganda by *China's state-run media* helped drive people to invest.




http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/07/investing/china-stock-market-crash/index.html?iid=EL

You will never be the economic power house without transparency, free speech and genuinely free markets.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> The downside of a command economy
> 
> 
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/07/investing/china-stock-market-crash/index.html?iid=EL
> 
> You will never be the economic power house without transparency, free speech and genuinely free markets.




Well that excludes everyone I guess, least of all the supposed poster child of the 'free' world, the USA?

Ponzi's about to be asked to pay the piper, 'cept no amount of money printing will normalise economies this time.

The artificial 'recoveries' since the start of the GFC have been just that - artificial. All the bad debts that did not get outright vaporised in the early days of the GFC are still there, only not officially accounted for ie relaxing the mark to market rules etc.

So here we are nearly 8 years later and still zero bound with interest rates while the CB's have tried to wealth effect their way out of it but only blowing bubbles, which are popping now. 

This has been building for over 40 years though as each growth retraction has been met with lower rates and more stimulus and more hiding of the facts through politically compromised data.

The culprits deserve what they are about to get.........


----------



## notting

Uncle Festivus said:


> Well that excludes everyone I guess, least of all the supposed poster child of the 'free' world, the USA?




Australia and New Zealand would be better poster childs if you must have one.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> The downside of a command economy
> 
> 
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/07/investing/china-stock-market-crash/index.html?iid=EL
> 
> You will never be the economic power house without transparency, free speech and genuinely free markets.




Keep it coming notting, its starting to look like stage analysis.


----------



## notting

> China has lost over US$4trln in 4 weeks: that is more than the total mkt cap of the CAC 65% of NKY & 3.6x more thn total mktcap ASX







> CHINA'S STATE ASSET ADMINISTRATOR COMMANDS CENTRAL GOVT-OWNED FIRMS TO BUY THEIR OWN STOCK TO STABILISE SHARE PRICE




Let's hope the next order from State Asset Administration is not - "Sell your Sydney apartments and buy Chinese equities."


----------



## ROE

China solve their stock market problem
they switched red to green, if stock now fall on the China Stock market it is green instead of


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Let's hope the next order from State Asset Administration is not - "Sell your Sydney apartments and buy Chinese equities."




We've got a house hunting trip scheduled for end of the month, perhaps they could organise it in time for that?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> We've got a house hunting trip scheduled for end of the month, perhaps they could organise it in time for that?




Dude, head for Greece!!!!! :luigi:


----------



## waterbottle

qldfrog said:


> China Trading Halts Leave 43% of Entire Stock Market Frozen" Bloombergs as read on http://finance.yahoo.com/;
> that is a sizable chunk indeed, wonder what is still trading?
> CanOz any news as seen from the floor?(I assume you are on Mainland China?)




I remember shorts being banned on the ASX during the GFC, but this is pretty different... Has anyone encountered anything similar in other markets? What was the outcome? 
I guess they can halt trading in 100% of stocks and that would ensure 'stability' :


----------



## skc

waterbottle said:


> I remember shorts being banned on the ASX during the GFC, but this is pretty different... Has anyone encountered anything similar in other markets? What was the outcome?
> I guess they can halt trading in 100% of stocks and that would ensure 'stability' :




I read an article basically saying that, some companies have halted trading in their shares because the owners have, during the bull run, used their holding as collateral for loans. 

More falls in the stock price will put them in margin calls and they will be forced to dump. 

So there can only be one outcome when the suspensions end... and it's not likely to be up!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

waterbottle said:


> I remember shorts being banned on the ASX during the GFC, but this is pretty different... Has anyone encountered anything similar in other markets? What was the outcome?
> I guess they can halt trading in 100% of stocks and that would ensure 'stability' :



Most markets have some sort of limit down amount on stocks and futs. But this is being handled about as bad as it could be. If you did have holdings in stocks that still are trading you would be thinking of pulling out now while you can.....


----------



## notting

Trembling Hand said:


> But this is being handled about as bad as it could be. If you did have holdings in stocks that still are trading you would be thinking of pulling out now while you can.....




Knock Knock.  "You Mr.Trembling Hand?"

"Why, Yes?"

"Come with me."

"But, OUCH."
*
"NOOOOOO  BUT!!!"*


----------



## satanoperca

Come on China, just rip that band-aid off quick and release all stocks suspended and get it over and done with.

Torture is less painful if it is down quick and fast, rather than slow and prolonged.

Tomorrow will be another day of taking a big breath of air before the next dive down.


----------



## waterbottle

Trembling Hand said:


> Most markets have some sort of limit down amount on stocks and futs. But this is being handled about as bad as it could be. If you did have holdings in stocks that still are trading you would be thinking of pulling out now while you can.....




Cheers TH. Why do you say it's being handled badly? Is it because they've left it too late to really do anything? 

Also, is anything stopping them from implementing further stimulus?


----------



## rimtas

Today on the news is all about China and it's crashing stock market. One commentator even said that chinese authorities are rising a question maybe there is some sort of manipulation and this needs to be investigated.
No one bothered about "manipulation" when stocks rose more than 100% in a year, but when they started to decline, suddenly this  appeared  as "not normal". 

Today more than 1000 companies suspended their share trading, thinking that they will avoid further falls. The desperation for up trend to continue is so strong, that measures taken are anecdotal.  They even think that throwing 100billions to buy shares will work and stop or even reverse a decline. When in fact no one is bigger than a market, and all those shares in a suspended state will open with massive gaps to adjust to the market when trading is enabled again.

Recent news that are floating in mass media usually appear only in two places-either at the bottom of the correction, or close to the Point of Recognition, which marks that the crash is only in the early stages. And from the technical perspective this makes sense-almost entire extended Wave (5) has been retraced, which is a norm. Prices are just a fraction from the area where the Bottom of the correction usually occurs, and if they find support here and rally, the crash should be postponed. Of course  Chinese later say that "measures to protect the crash from happening worked", which in fact not, as market crashed already.

 So from this point conditions and sentiment for a bottom are good, but if Market tanks below Wave (4) extreme of ~3100, consider that Chinese stock market is poised to go all the way to 1000.


----------



## Tyler Durden

rimtas said:


> No one bothered about "manipulation" when stocks rose more than 100% in a year, but when they started to decline, suddenly this  appeared  as "not normal".




This is a very good point. I guess when money is coming in, whether it be by way of cheap loans or 'increased valuations', everyone is happy and not too many questions are asked. But when people start losing money, then everyone starts pointing fingers at everyone else.

On another point, it is interesting to see China be so involved in their stock market. I mean, aren't stock markets supposed to be 'free'? A market isn't left to its own devices if there are constraints such as limiting the value of a share decrease to 10% a day, or implementing trading halts for the sole purpose of stopping a slide.


----------



## waterbottle

A post from the Chinese section of reddit (social media) about how this is being handled in China:



> In China's 股市:贴吧, a China's version of reddit(with Chinese characteristics), there exists a subreddit that is themed on and about China's stock market. The way the Chinese think about stock market is totally different from us, and I think their point of views on a few topics are quite interesting:
> 
> Why are the stock market dropping?
> 
> _c110972 says: Today, we reap what we sow yesterday. Let's start with the investigation on margin trading. In the past, when in bull market, margin trade investigation will at best create a single 10% mid-term drop. No matter what you do, even with stamp duty and super short sell, still we won't be able to create the drop like today. China stock market is a super mutant. Stock market value very high, dividend very low. Most stock do not have investment value, everyone are speculating on rise and drops, no different from casinos. The only function of the stock market, is to allow companies to create gambling chips for people sell into the stock market for real cash, it doesn't matter what the chips are made out of._
> 
> For those who can read Chinese, you can see people's replies in here, most agree with him, however, pes2068 says other wise:
> 
> _   The country is busy with AIIB, China's stock market tanks, is this a coincidence? Of course not, it's the American and Japanese's fault! Every country are watching us, we must win this war on finance! The index is the key, we win, AIIB can open successfully! Today the big companies are showing signs of weakness, oil, bank, insurance and broker firms are starting to protect their share prices, all the data shows that our country is very efficient at handling matters when the stock market crises happen, showing responsibility worthy of this great country! To be a children of Chinese we can deeply feel the love and bountifulness of this land. When small time investors are under fire from the stock market crises, the regularities, broker firms, stock funds have joint hands to launch a unionized assault, protecting the share prices together. Central bank is giving stock broker liquidity support. Do not fall before sun rise! Believe in the capability of the government in saving the stock market! It is the Chinese government, with guts and capabilities, who will protect the small investors of our motherland time and time again. Believe!_
> 
> Sorry, I need to take a break to laugh, more translations coming
> 
> What are we gonna do when the stock market tanks?
> 
> _winnie200 said:
> 
> Citizens of China need to unite together! To protect the chinese stocks is to protect yourself! Buy!
> 
> Instead of insulting you should unite, support china! The stock market crisis is going to affact everyone!
> 
> The next step of a financial crisis, not only investors and financial institutes will be the ones negatively affected. A lot of physical will also be affected. Domestic demand will decrease, finance shrivel, exchange rate stability goes away, currency depreciate, first we will have deflation, then we will have bad inflation, every industry goes bankrupt, like what happened to Thailand and Korea in 1997. If this happen, will civil unrest happen? We can't imagine that. Under this condition, our currency will no longer be any safe asset, we will have to accept a totally different lifestyle.
> 
> For the country, for yourself, everyone buy 100 shares!
> _
> The others do not quite agree. For example, fly飞翔的番茄 told_ winnie200:
> 
> *  OP should sell every he has, including his house, to buy in the stock market. If he doesn't, he is unpatriotic, nation traitor!*_




Full credit to notting for having picked this outcome :::


----------



## CanOz

Tyler Durden said:


> On another point, it is interesting to see China be so involved in their stock market. I mean, aren't stock markets supposed to be 'free'? A market isn't left to its own devices if there are constraints such as limiting the value of a share decrease to 10% a day, or implementing trading halts for the sole purpose of stopping a slide.




Well Tyler, lots of 'free' markets have limits too, agricultural futures for example have daily trading limits. The US are no strangers to jumping into plunging markets, Google "plunge protection team"

CanOz


----------



## notting

Awesome they have commanded a 6 month bottom!!!



> China on Wednesday said it was banning major shareholders, executives and directors of listed companies from selling any of their stakes for six months - the latest in long line of measures the country has introduced in recent days to stop a brutal market sell-off that has wiped more than $3 trillion of value off its main exchanges.
> 
> In a statement, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said investors who own stakes exceeding 5 per cent must maintain their positions.
> 
> The ban is aimed at safeguarding the market from what the regulator had earlier described as panic and irrational selling.




Now it's all in the hands of newbie small time retail investors.
I can stop taking acid my entertainment is well and truly back on!


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Awesome they have commanded a 6 month bottom!!!
> 
> 
> 
> Now it's all in the hands of newbie small time retail investors.
> I can stop taking acid my entertainment is well and truly back on!




We've got to remember the date!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Tyler Durden said:


> On another point, it is interesting to see China be so involved in their stock market. I mean, aren't stock markets supposed to be 'free'? A market isn't left to its own devices if there are constraints such as limiting the value of a share decrease to 10% a day, or implementing trading halts for the sole purpose of stopping a slide.




No, they are not 'free'. Nor transparent. Nor fair. There are agendas at play by those who have the means and connections. Pick who they are and what they are trying to achieve and you can 'win' too.....until it all collapses. Start again with other peoples money.

All the players in a Ponzi are 'winning' on the way up. All markets are Ponzi's of one sort or another.

The US finally cracks under the weight of margin calls as well?

http://www.businessinsider.com/nyse-margin-debt-may-2015-2015-6?IR=T


----------



## waterbottle

Own 5% of a company or more? Well you can't sell!



> China’s securities regulator banned major shareholders, corporate executives and directors from selling stakes in listed companies for six months, its latest effort to stop the nation’s $3.5 trillion stock-market rout.
> 
> Investors with stakes exceeding 5 percent must maintain their positions, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement. The rule is intended to guard capital-market stability amid an “unreasonable plunge” in share prices, the CSRC said.
> 
> While China has already ordered government-owned institutions to maintain or boost their stock holdings, the CSRC’s directive expands the ban on sales to non-state companies and potentially foreign investors who own major stakes in mainland businesses. Regulators have unveiled market-boosting measures almost every night over the past 10 days, steps that have so far failed to revive investor confidence. Foreign traders sold Chinese shares at a record pace this week in part due concerns over the government’s meddling in markets.
> 
> “It suggests desperation,” Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said by phone Wednesday. “It actually creates more fear because it shows that they’ve lost the control.”




Meanwhile, NYSE halts trading due to "technical issues"


----------



## notting

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150708/FREE/150709919/chinas-stock-market-meltdown-is-looking-like-a-buying-opportunity


----------



## ROE

Just dont buy more than 5% or you cant sell


----------



## satanoperca

satanoperca said:


> Come on China, just rip that band-aid off quick and release all stocks suspended and get it over and done with.
> 
> Torture is less painful if it is down quick and fast, rather than slow and prolonged.
> 
> Tomorrow will be another day of taking a big breath of air before the next dive down.




On cue so far.


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> On cue so far.




You bet - 



> Chinese Police Vow To Arrest "Malicious Short Sellers"


----------



## notting

> China's total trade slumped in the first half of this year, official data showed Monday, far off the government's targets and dealing a blow to the global economy from the world's biggest trader in goods.
> 
> Two-way trade for the first six months of the year fell 6.9 percent to 11.53 trillion yuan ($1.85 trillion), the General Administration of Customs said.




Lucky you can't sell your shares!


----------



## Tyler Durden

Tyler Durden said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/business/shar...-as-chinas-economy-slows-20150504-1myq9r.html
> 
> View attachment 62471




This was indeed a very true sign, as accurate as the shoe shine boy.


----------



## waterbottle

Tyler Durden said:


> This was indeed a very true sign, as accurate as the shoe shine boy.




I'm pretty sure I've seen that photo before... Probably pre-2012 I think

CCP promised to control the markets and it looks like they have


----------



## sydboy007

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-13/two-scary-charts-about-china



> As of December, the combined debts of households and non-financial corporations -- with the latter accounting for the majority of the total -- stood at 192 percent of gross domestic product, up from 118 percent before the 2008 financial crisis (and that doesn’t include as much as $4 trillion in local-government debt).






> To a large extent, China can absorb losses by recapitalizing state-owned banks that run into trouble. Nonetheless, banks outside China are increasingly exposed: As of December, total foreign bank exposure to the country's government, banks and companies stood at $1.3 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That's down a bit from September, but still more than five times the pre-crisis level.






> A Chinese bust could play out in several ways. It could be a long period of stagnation with a banking system paralyzed by bad loans, like Japan in the 1990s. Or if losses crystallized at a global systemically important bank, it could be more sudden and financially destabilizing. Or both.


----------



## waterbottle

sydboy007 said:


> http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-13/two-scary-charts-about-china





If those foreign companies who were exposed to China go under, why would that affect China's bull run or ability to get back onto one?
$1.3 trillion doesn't seem like a large amount of money, given that it is spread over so many institutions and countries

Really, it's amazing the lengths to which the CCP have kept their markets afloat: Rate cut + drop in reserves over weekend; force brokers to start buying; ban selling of ~30-40% of market by major shareholders for 6 months; ban any negative talk about the sharemarket. All this earning them ~10% increase in the space of a week!


----------



## notting

Dictators doing all the buying today and 'the people' are doing all the selling!
It's been more mixed than that since they dictated the floor.
Looks like they will allow an orderly exit.


----------



## notting

"The People" not convinced by the GDP proclaimed by the dictators.




http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-15/chinese-growth-based-on-money-from-thin-air/6622146?section=business


----------



## sydboy007

waterbottle said:


> If those foreign companies who were exposed to China go under, why would that affect China's bull run or ability to get back onto one?
> $1.3 trillion doesn't seem like a large amount of money, given that it is spread over so many institutions and countries
> 
> Really, it's amazing the lengths to which the CCP have kept their markets afloat: Rate cut + drop in reserves over weekend; force brokers to start buying; ban selling of ~30-40% of market by major shareholders for 6 months; ban any negative talk about the sharemarket. All this earning them ~10% increase in the space of a week!




1. Slow growth in export market slow growth in China
2. Who has the risk?  Would likely end up with a Lehman brothers style freezing of the markets.  Who will lend to who?  Who has the bad Chinese debt?

Factor in that the Chinese would also suffer a form of credit crunch.  You'd definitely see a further increase in capital flight from the country - $500B annual at Q1 this year mitigated by the suprlus, but still a net loss of FOREX.

In a way the PBOC is loosing control of interest rates.  They can't do anything to confirm a falling CNY or the hot money flows out faster.  They can't increase rates to slow the hot money as they need a lower CNY not a rising one.  They can make further reductions in the RRR which will slowly reverse some of the FX sterilisation they did in the boom years, but then you can start getting the lending practices that got China in the mess they are, and it's not so sensible to drain bank reserves when bad debts are rising.  Continued net outflows will likely place significant pressure on asset values, depending on how they are funded, and on productive growth, if they are funded by private sector disinvestment.


----------



## notting

sydboy007 said:


> 2. Who has the risk?




I'm hearing a lot of it is in the shadow banking system.


----------



## shouldaindex

China will be fine, slowing to 5% GDP growth in the next 5 years.

No idea what their stock market is doing though.


----------



## waterbottle

sydboy007 said:


> 1. Slow growth in export market slow growth in China
> 2. Who has the risk?  Would likely end up with a Lehman brothers style freezing of the markets.  Who will lend to who?  Who has the bad Chinese debt?





IIRC, there was a slow down in exports during the GFC but that didn't stop China from achieving 7% growth. The current situation isn't as severe as the GFC (or maybe we haven't waited long enough).
The risk is carried by those who invested in China. We could end up with a credit freeze, but what's the likelihood of that? And how will that even affect China when they are printing their own supply and manipulate every facet of their economy?


----------



## notting

China Lies​


> According to the NBSC, from 2000 to 2011 private housing CPI rose by 8 percent.  Let me emphasize very strongly that is not 8 percent annually but 8 percent total in twelve years.  In a period when official real GDP growth was averaging around 10 percent annually, official housing price inflation was a mere 8 percent total.  To provide some perspective, research covering a similar time period found total real estate asset price inflation of 200-300 percent.  One recent paper by the same team found “real house price growth has been high, averaging 10 percent per annum since 2004.”  It defies any reasonable explanation that home prices increased by such enormous amounts while the inflation attributed amount was so small.






> from 2000 through 2010, the NBSC gave only a 13 percent weighting to housing in the CPI basket.   To put this weighting in perspective, it gave a higher weighting to “education and cultural articles” and only a slightly lower weighting to “clothing”.  Most countries and even Chinese data indicate much higher levels of income dedicated to housing than 13 percent of 17 percent.  In 2011, the NBSC reweighted the housing portion to a 17.2 percent despite the fact that it grew significantly slower than all other components of the CPI. In other words, even though housing fell significantly relative to other items in the NBSC basket between 2000 and 2010, it was magically reweighted upward in 2011. The NBSC is implicitly saying its own statistics are unreliable.






> if we compare Chinese macro data to other countries we are left with odd inconsistencies. For instance, China experienced some of the highest levels of money growth excluding high inflation states; while numerous countries had comparable or higher nominal GDP, China reports inflation levels over the 2000 to 2011 time period less than the United States and among the lowest of even all developed countries.  All of the Chinese real GDP story is dependent on low inflation data.
> 
> This matters for a very simple reason: it understates CPI and overstates real GDP.






> A mere 15 days after the quarter, China has such efficient statisticians that they have collected a sampling of data and crunched the numbers?  Makes you wonder why companies can’t release quarterly numbers in a few hours.






> Official trade data with imports declining 15.5 percent, which given import over invoicing implies a larger drop probably closer to 20 percent, is not indicative of robust economy growing at 7 percent.  Not only are prices collapsing due to lack of demand from China but volumes are dropping.  Countries that grow at 7 percent do not reduce imports by 20 percent.






> Then look at a wealth of corporate data, whether domestic Chinese companies or foreign multinationals.  Almost universally, they are reporting flat to declining revenue and profits in China.  In fact, corporate profits in China rose 0.6 percent, with 96 percent of that growth from investing in the stock market.  In other words, absent the stock market boom, Chinese firms saw no profit growth.






> Then consider the official industrial production growth of nearly 12 percent for the second quarter 2015.  During the second quarter, the HSBC PMI showed constant contraction but somehow official data not only grew but grew well above estimates.  Now the data is not directly comparable but to have such stark differences does invite questions.




https://thenanfang.com/heres-why-chinas-gdp-numbers-are-smoke-and-mirrors/


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> China Lies​https://thenanfang.com/heres-why-chinas-gdp-numbers-are-smoke-and-mirrors/





...and it's working! We're closing in on 4000


----------



## notting

waterbottle said:


> ...and it's working! We're closing in on 4000




Well not really, it's hard to have a market go down when significant holders are not allowed to sell.
Not that it's such a mean thing cause 'the people' on this occasion, the little guys, are being allowed to get out without bringing down the banking system.
The significant holders are not being allowed to make a motza on the little guys.


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> Well not really, it's hard to have a market go down when significant holders are not allowed to sell.
> Not that it's such a mean thing cause 'the people' on this occasion, the little guys, are being allowed to get out without bringing down the banking system.
> The significant holders are not being allowed to make a motza on the little guys.




The caveat to that rule was that they could sell in 6 months' time.

So the question is, will those significant holders sell in 6 months time? What if in 6 months time they manage to surpass the previous peak? I would think in that case that they are less likely to sell out of their entire position.


----------



## notting

> Foreign investment into China rose 8.0 percent in the first half of this year as mergers and acquisitions by overseas companies (EEEEEIDIOTS) more than quadrupled in value, the commerce ministry said Tuesday.
> 
> Foreign direct investment (FDI), which excludes financial sectors, totalled $68.41 billion during the January-June period, the ministry said. "Both the proportion and the transaction value of foreign mergers and acquisitions increased sharply," it said in a statement.
> 
> It gave the value of M&A activity at $13.19 billion, a gain of 336.5 percent from the same period last year, while its proportion of total FDI ballooned from 4.8 percent to 19.3 percent.
> 
> "With the increase of China's land prices and other costs, many companies (EEEEEIDIOTS) are now investing in the country in the form of mergers and acquisitions," said Shen Danyang, ministry spokesman.
> 
> In June alone, FDI growth slowed sharply to 1.1 percent, after a 7.8 percent year-on-year rise in May.:bonk:
> 
> The ministry also said that overseas direct investment (ODI) (EEEEEIDIOTS) from China rose 29.2 percent to $56.0 billion in January to June. It did not provide data for June alone.
> 
> China drew a total of $119.6 billion of FDI in 2014, up 1.7 percent, while ODI was up 14.1 percent at $102.9 billion, passing the $100 billion mark for the first time as Chinese companies eye opportunities abroad :badsmile: as domestic growth slows.
> 
> The world's second-biggest economy expanded 7.4 percent last year, the weakest pace since 1990, and slowed further to 7.0 percent in each of the first two quarters this year. (Yeah right)
> 
> In the January-June period, investment from the 28-member European Union (EU) (EEEEEIDIOTS) into China rose 13.7 percent to $4.08 billion, the ministry said.
> 
> Investment from France (EEEEEIDIOTS), which is included in the EU total, rose 46.9 percent to $660 million. From Japan, with which China is in disputes over territory and wartime history, it fell 16.3 percent to $2.01 billion.
> 
> And it fell sharply from the United States, dropping 37.6 percent to $1.09 billion, the figures showed.
> 
> Hong Kong is by far the biggest investor in China, accounting for $50.69 billion of the six-month total. It showed a gain of 15.6 percent during the period.
> 
> FDI growth has slowed in recent years owing to factors including rising costs, competition from Southeast Asian countries, and concerns over official investigations into foreign companies.
> 
> At the same time *China's* acquisition of foreign assets, particularly energy and resources, has increased with *firms encouraged to invest abroad* to 'gain market access and international experience' *CRAP*.
> 
> Outbound investment from China into the US rose 30.1 percent in the first six months, but gained just 1.9 percent into the EU, the ministry said, without giving totals.
> 
> The ASEAN group of Southeast Asian countries saw *investment from China rise by 92.9 percent*, the ministry said, while that to Hong Kong gained 71.8 percent.






China keeps the Yuan high, encourages foreigners to pair up with it's worthless companies and divests like crazy away from itself.

Has the world wized up as a result of China preventing significant stake holders to sell shares they invested in?
Probably not.


----------



## rimtas

Despite fundamentals in China and most recent "crash", the movement itself is neither much significant long run nor spectacular or "bubbly" as most pundits suggest. It looks like a normal wave.
 The year long 100%+ rise can be considered as a kickoff of the larger move, that ultimately carry prices above 2007 high, and much much higher later. For this we need a bull market in progress, that could be confirmed if All Ords surpasses 2007 peak as well sometimes in a next few years. 












But alternative view suggests that a Top is in place and the crash is developing, wich ultimately leaves China's stock market in ruins, setting a widespread panic (close to the bottom) in the entire region, Australia as well. 





In both scenarios one more wave down below 3400 in Shanghai Composite should develop, which will tell where market is heading in the long run. A quick dive to 3000 and even more faster retrace back should weigh towards long term bull, and a dive towards 2000 will say that China is busted.


----------



## CanOz

I wonder which wave count the CCP is using?


----------



## rimtas

you mean CCCP?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

shouldaindex said:


> China will be fine, slowing to 5% GDP growth in the next 5 years.
> 
> No idea what their stock market is doing though.




? 7% is break even for them. They are in recession. Lot's of gluts of everything made with Chinese QE to work through yet so many years of sub par performance, if they are that lucky?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

rimtas said:


> Despite fundamentals in China and most recent "crash", the movement itself is neither much significant long run nor spectacular or "bubbly" as most pundits suggest. It looks like a normal wave.
> The year long 100%+ rise can be considered as a kickoff of the larger move, that ultimately carry prices above 2007 high, and much much higher later. For this we need a bull market in progress, that could be confirmed if All Ords surpasses 2007 peak as well sometimes in a next few years.
> 
> In both scenarios one more wave down below 3400 in Shanghai Composite should develop, which will tell where market is heading in the long run. A quick dive to 3000 and even more faster retrace back should weigh towards long term bull, and a dive towards 2000 will say that China is busted.




The fundamentals are probably even worse - the stock casino bubble has busted, just need to see what the fallout is now.

Just hope the 'controllers' use technical analysis as well to know when to juice.


----------



## notting

> He said that Chinese people were accustomed to having a fixed social status under the Communist system. Now, he said, many people are looking to the stock market to define their worth.






> Cheered on by relatives, co-workers and *rapturous headlines in the state-run news media*, ordinary investors in China *helped stoke a remarkable rally* over the last year. With easy access to loans for trading, individual investors opened more than 38 million stock accounts in the second quarter, compared with nine million in all of 2014.






> They were encouraged by reports this spring in The People’s Daily, the flagship paper of the Communist Party, which trumpeted the seemingly never-ending bull market.




Kind of makes both funny and sad reading.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/business/international/stock-downturn-hits-chinese-investors-in-the-heart-not-just-the-wallet.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0


----------



## waterbottle

SSE holds above 4000 to close at 4123. 

Down by 20% since the peak, and closing in.

Will you change your outlook if they get to 4600 i.e. 10% fall from peak?


----------



## notting

waterbottle said:


> SSE holds above 4000 to close at 4123.
> Down by 20% since the peak, and closing in.
> Will you change your outlook if they get to 4600 i.e. 10% fall from peak?




Mate the dictatorship is totally controlling what it does.  What the frick is there to change your mind about? It's not a market. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9746&p=874060&viewfull=1#post874060


----------



## CanOz

waterbottle said:


> SSE holds above 4000 to close at 4123.
> 
> Down by 20% since the peak, and closing in.
> 
> Will you change your outlook if they get to 4600 i.e. 10% fall from peak?




Waterbottle, here's my 

I say we test for responsive participants (lots of selling) in the prior value area, marked in magenta. I can't help but think there will be sellers there....If the market doesn't reject that completely, then i would change my bias, until then i would not be short.

The Hang Seng has been dragged into a similar pattern, but the area where I'm looking at for prices to stall is not an area of prior acceptance, only rejection. Again, only my view....

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> Mate the dictatorship is totally controlling what it does.  What the frick is there to change your mind about? It's not a market. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9746&p=874060&viewfull=1#post874060




So what if they control what the market does?! What about all that stimulus that was pumped out post-GFC? You knew it was wrong but if you kept quiet and entered the market then your portfolio grew.



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Waterbottle, here's my
> 
> I say we test for responsive participants (lots of selling) in the prior value area, marked in magenta. I can't help but think there will be sellers there....If the market doesn't reject that completely, then i would change my bias, until then i would not be short.
> 
> The Hang Seng has been dragged into a similar pattern, but the area where I'm looking at for prices to stall is not an area of prior acceptance, only rejection. Again, only my view....
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




CanOz, I agree that there may indeed be a few sellers. But, IMO, the smaller participants i.e. those who hold <5% of a stock, will not have any significant impact because their behaviour is frankly uncoordinated -there is a media blackout about negative market news and the CCCP will punish anyone who plans on shorting ergo those <5% are inherently "bullish".

Again, IMO, the real concern is what those with a holding of 5% or greater do in 6 months (now 5 months) time. Their position is large enough to have an impact on price action so their behaviour does not necessarily need to be co-ordinated to have any impact on the market.
If I were to put myself in their shoes: Would I liquidate my position in 5 months time if my portfolio was down by only 10% AND the CCCP threatens to gaol/punish me for doing so? I would probably sell part of it, but why would I sell off the lot (and in turn trigger another down turn)?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

waterbottle said:


> CanOz, I agree that there may indeed be a few sellers. But, IMO, the smaller participants i.e. those who hold <5% of a stock, will not have any significant impact because their behaviour is frankly uncoordinated -there is a media blackout about negative market news and the CCCP will punish anyone who plans on shorting ergo those <5% are inherently "bullish".




Thant about sums it up so no need for charts whle ever the central planners have it covered. The danger is if it does keep correcting because that will mean they have lost control, and hence it will be the start of the global sell off and next crisis?


----------



## rimtas

Uncle Festivus said:


> that will mean they have lost control,




They never had control over stock markets, it's opposite-market has a complete and total control of what governments do. After the crash, market forced them to take action, it's the same as selling at the bottom. Measures taken won't do anything. 
Even if there are two persons left with one share holding per each, they can still push markets in any amount lower by selling those two stocks to each other. The only way to stop  markets from going anywhere is to close the exchange. Bans and regulations do nothing to forces upon which markets are operating.


----------



## waterbottle

rimtas said:


> They never had control over stock markets, it's opposite-market has a complete and total control of what governments do. After the crash, market forced them to take action, it's the same as selling at the bottom. Measures taken won't do anything.
> Even if there are two persons left with one share holding per each, they can still push markets in any amount lower by selling those two stocks to each other. The only way to stop  markets from going anywhere is to close the exchange. Bans and regulations do nothing to forces upon which markets are operating.




I am not aware of any market which has never been regulated or controlled by government. Even eBay has rules!


----------



## rimtas

waterbottle said:


> I am not aware of any market which has never been regulated or controlled by government. Even eBay has rules!




eBay is not a stock market. It is operating on economic logic and is regulated by rules.
 Any stock market in the world is a reflection of social mood, which can't be controled or influenced by government actions. Government is part of the crowd, and because it is at the bottom of mood scale, it always acts the last. Or to be more precise-it reacts, not acts. When Market moves-government reacts. This is not a regulation. This is herding.
 It is a waste of time trying to predict market moves based on government actions. But you can predict quite accuratly what governments will do just by looking what market does. In fact, in most cases government actions re to stock market can be incorporated into quite profitable trading strategy, just by betting against them. Shangai Composite was quite a good example-_after_ the crash, government took acctions, and this was a buy signal. Near the Top, chinese government also took actions by easing availability of credit for stock purcase, this was quite a good sell signal, just as an example.


----------



## notting

*China's state-owned investment company, Central Huijin Investment seems to be selling again today 
Front running all those forced :bbat: into a six month suspension. *


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> *China's state-owned investment company, Central Huijin Investment seems to be selling again today
> Front running all those forced :bbat: into a six month suspension. *
> 
> View attachment 63610




Interesting play... Do you have a source that I can read?


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Waterbottle, here's my
> 
> I say we test for responsive participants (lots of selling) in the prior value area, marked in magenta. I can't help but think there will be sellers there....If the market doesn't reject that completely, then i would change my bias, until then i would not be short.
> 
> The Hang Seng has been dragged into a similar pattern, but the area where I'm looking at for prices to stall is not an area of prior acceptance, only rejection. Again, only my view....
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Responsive sellers located....


----------



## notting

> The food conditions are so bad in China people are finding their uncooked pork glowing blue from phosphorescent bacteria, their watermelons spontaneously exploding from excesses in growth hormones, their eggs made from gelatinous compounds and the oils in their food recycled from sewer water.
> 
> “Qing wrote a book about foods tainted with pesticides, industrial salts, bleaches, paints and, especially nauseating, imitation soy sauce made from clippings swept up from hairdressers’ floors, sold for 5 cents per pound and sent to factories that extract from it an amino acid solution.”
> 
> Qing’s book never reached the people it was most intended for; it was banned in China. Qing was also forced out of the country in 2008 due to threats and attacks from police and thugs who wanted to defuse the inevitable backlash were his message to get out.





*Now as if the Stock Market wasn't going to be poisoned as well.*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPdHAleapI0


----------



## notting

> BREAKING: Shanghai benchmark index down over 4% at opening; tech-focused ChiNext down 5%; over 200 stocks already down 10% limit at opening
> 
> From Monday Shanghai benchmark index broke 4000, 3900, 3800, 3700 points like non-stop train - Now under 3600 points.




One of those vicious short sellers -

[video]https://youtu.be/4owqPB0xcMo[/video]



> *Chinese State media reports today* calling *"foundation of China's bull market remain unchanged."*


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> One of those vicious short sellers -
> 
> [video]https://youtu.be/4owqPB0xcMo[/video]




Poor man, I empathise with him. All he was trying to do his family's situation.

Well at least most of the movements have been in the green....


----------



## luutzu

waterbottle said:


> Poor man, I empathise with him. All he was trying to do his family's situation.
> 
> Well at least most of the movements have been in the green....
> 
> View attachment 63619




I think green is bad in China's market.

Red is good, lucky colour.


----------



## notting

Here we go - 



> Chinese state media: "foreign force must be behind stock market crash this time and let's fight to defend our wealth!"







Let's just hope they don't have to keep ramping it up the 'foreign enemy is doing it,' to the point that they have to start WW3 in order to make the enemy look real to keep the people from blaming the true source - the Chinese Communist Party!


----------



## rimtas

No one is bigger than the market. Even Chinese government is smashed by the little guys trading from their veggie market stalls with accounts worth 200 bucks. Control an manipulation is an illusion, herding rules.


----------



## notting

> the first-half of 2015, growth by the financial sector was 17.4 per cent - (who knew?). If that pace were to slow down to even 10.4 per cent, GDP would shrink to 6.4 per cent.
> 
> The financial sector was growing this fast because in the first-half of the year the Chinese equity market boomed. As of June 12, that boom ended.
> 
> This means that China really needs the industrial sector to raise its game to prevent a collapse in the GDP figures.
> 
> Uncertainty around property is also warranted because it is unclear whether property sales are suffering as the sharemarket corrects. "It would be a very negative signal to the economy if sales growth started to slow because of the weak stock market," says analyst Vincent Chan.




Liquidity pumping, peddling it along for how long?


----------



## satanoperca

satanoperca said:


> On cue so far.




and still going. Love this action, makes you feel alive. The system is alive and well, human intervention is useless.


----------



## notting

:rocketwhoThis is where honest research gets you in China's propaganda made Market place ~
Re - John Carnes 



> This is a man who built his career on wagers against Chinese companies, bets so successful that one analyst ranks the 41-year-old among the best short sellers worldwide -- more effective than industry giants from Carson Block to David Einhorn. Carnes’s bearish research caused such a stir in 2011 that he fled China and had to fight off fraud allegations. The ordeal landed one of his colleagues in a Henan province prison.
> 
> After one of his reports in 2011, targeting a Toronto-listed miner of silver in China, he got threats of violence and decided to leave the country.




Yet all we have ever heard in the press for the last 20 years is how China is opening up. :rocketwho


----------



## notting

Imagine what the ones listed in China are like when this is the result of most of the international listings. -

click on 'watch vimeo' it works

[video=vimeo;57243175]https://vimeo.com/57243175[/video]


----------



## notting

China can't allow genuine market price discovery because Hanergy is the norm.

Here's a new one -




They probably won't try to float this one on the DOW.  Countries with free press tend not to be so mesmerized when it comes Chinese dictatorship gang members.


----------



## notting

> "But you get judged on how you deal with the hand that you are dealt."
> 
> There has been much debate over China's growth rate, with some analysts questioning whether the economy is growing anywhere near as fast as the government claims.
> 
> Mr Sperling said much of the commentary was based on the a slowdown in China's residential property market, the scale of which he witnessed on a recent trip to China.
> 
> "I have never seen so many blocks of apartment buildings with nobody in them," he said.
> 
> "It is staggering and there is no question that there is much of that going on throughout China."




~ Mr Sperling at Diggers and Dealers conference.  Such a great first line in any arena!
Gene Sperling, advised both Barrack Obama and Bill Clinton on economic policy


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> ~ Mr Sperling at Diggers and Dealers conference.  Such a great first line in any arena!
> Gene Sperling, advised both Barrack Obama and Bill Clinton on economic policy




A similar thing was reported post-GFC about China's "ghost cities" although that never lead to their economic demise


----------



## notting

It's a miracle




State calculated services growth precisely balances out the independently released slump in the manufacturing sector figures released a day ago. 

Debt collection and beating pets to death services are obviously booming however. 

http://speakupforthevoiceless.org/2014/08/01/china-beating-peoples-pet-dogs-to-death/

Lovely people, not just the thugs but the casual spectators gathering for a good laugh.


----------



## notting

In the state controlled media, which the Chinese Dictatorship uses to brainwash the people, they suggest it is vicious short sellers and Foreigners attacking China's wealth.

On the ground - 



> CSRC ANNOUNCEMENT: Investor Protection Bureau chief Li Liang abused his job power to provide illegal interests to others and take bribery.
> BREAKING: Head of Investor Protection Bureau at China Securities Regulatory Commission is arrested for corruption and misconduct


----------



## notting

No one should have been shocked with the shock unannounced devaluation of the Yaun over night after China lured 52 countries to pour money into the Chinese-led Asian investment bank, spent the last 2 years or so inviting international investment into it's 'opening up' of markets and divested massive amounts of overvalued yaun into international real estate, commodities and treasury bonds.

It seems the dictatorship is, for the moment, content with the amount of buying they have done and are now going to manipulate the Yaun lower more in accordance with it's economy, starting with the usual punch in the face for all those who invested in Chinese orientated anti-assets.


----------



## notting

China lies - China has cut the value of the yuan for a second day, the yuan dropped 1.8 per cent in offshore trading, after the People's Bank of China set its reference rate 1.6 per cent lower at 6.3306 per US dollar. 
This comes a day after the Chinese Dictators devalued the yuan by 1.9 per cent, the most on record, *saying it was a "one-off move".*


----------



## notting

*Vietnam stands up to China *by widening the trading band on its own currency, citing the move by China's central bank as a reason!
Then, as cowards do, when they have just been stood up to after bullying people - China rushes to it’s microphones urging, “everyone to stay calm," saying, "there's no economic or financial "basis" for the Yuan exchange rate to fall continuously.”
(and starts defending the Yaun against the US$ at around 6.43 Yuan)


----------



## waterbottle

What is the goal here? To stop capital outflows?

All they've done is make assets outside of China ~4% more expensive for Chinese holding RMB. My guess is they'll have to keep devaluing if they really want to a put a clamp on outflows.
Interesting to see what would happen with a 10% drop, especially to Aus real estate and exporters (although RBA might step in before SHTF, if it hasn't already...)


----------



## skyQuake

waterbottle said:


> What is the goal here? To stop capital outflows?
> 
> All they've done is make assets outside of China ~4% more expensive for Chinese holding RMB. My guess is they'll have to keep devaluing if they really want to a put a clamp on outflows.
> Interesting to see what would happen with a 10% drop, especially to Aus real estate and exporters (although RBA might step in before SHTF, if it hasn't already...)




Supposed to be supporting exports - July overseas shipments were trash

The yuan moved a bit more after a marketmaker reportedly got run over. Then the PBOC stepped in. Fun times.


----------



## notting

The hitch - 



> Plans are underway for billions of dollars of major public projects, including new highways, high-speed rail lines, water treatment plants, schools and health care facilities.
> 
> There is just one hitch: Weifang can't pay for all the projects.
> 
> In the past, city officials would have turned to low-cost loans from state-owned banks, as the national government encouraged local spending to spur economic growth. But the Chinese leadership, worried about the country's ballooning debt.
> 
> In Weifang, rapid urbanization over the last decade has saddled the local government with debts totalling 88.4 billion renminbi, or $14.2 billion, as of June 2013, the most recent data available.
> 
> *Since 2007, China's overall local government debt has risen at an annual rate of 27 percent.* It now totals almost $3 trillion, according to estimates from consulting firm McKinsey & Co.




Problem is you can't fund public projects, in bulk, by pawning them off onto 'the people.' Which still accumulated massive debts and the extensiveness of it was largely motivated by graft, not genuine vision (Air pollution is killing an average of 4,000 people a day in China) for 'China'.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/china-air-pollution-kills-4-000-people-a-day-researchers


----------



## CanOz

Perhaps the end of the bull has come with boom. The video footage of the Tianjin explosions are insane, one wonders what the toll would have been if it had occurred during a busy week day. Lots of censoring going on, so the powers that be must be nervous about public reaction.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> Perhaps the end of the bull has come with boom. The video footage of the Tianjin explosions are insane, one wonders what the toll would have been if it had occurred during a busy week day. Lots of censoring going on, so the powers that be must be nervous about public reaction.




  outstaaaaanding :bricks1:

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/631943333770715137/pu/vid/180x320/qqYnqluyYRMFv6ig.webm
[video]https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/631943333770715137/pu/vid/180x320/qqYnqluyYRMFv6ig.webm[/video]

the enormity is in how long it takes from sighting the plume to receiving the shockfront ..7ish seconds


----------



## notting

Chinese stock market sinks over 6% after some Chinese brokerage announced to restart margin finance and short-selling business 





"I Love waking up to the smell of cyanide in the morning," noted China's minister for propaganda.

And on that, I haven't heard much comment about 16% to 17% of sea born trade that comes in and goes out via The Peoples Cyanide City.  Gotta have a bit of effect on the economy given infrastructure is already a laggard and meant to be the next big thing.


----------



## waterbottle

notting said:


> Chinese stock market sinks over 6% after some Chinese brokerage announced to restart margin finance and short-selling business
> 
> View attachment 63884
> 
> 
> "I Love waking up to the smell of cyanide in the morning," noted China's minister for propaganda.
> 
> And on that, I haven't heard much comment about 16% to 17% of sea born trade that comes in and goes out via The Peoples Cyanide City.  Gotta have a bit of effect on the economy given infrastructure is already a laggard and meant to be the next big thing.




I don't get it. The CCCP banned short selling, and its not as if the CCCP is going to yield to some brokerage firm.

Got a link?


----------



## notting

> The median stock on mainland bourses traded at 72 times reported earnings on Monday, more expensive than any of the world's 10 largest markets. The ratio was 68 at the peak of China's equity bubble in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.




And this is after a 30% route!


----------



## notting

waterbottle said:


> I don't get it.




Just another day I suppose.



waterbottle said:


> Got a link?




Yeah sure.


----------



## notting

Worth noting what happens when Mr. Chong from the Chinese communist party lets go of the handle for  few hours.




"CHONG Push it back up over the 200 day."
"Yes sir."


----------



## notting

> He highlights the "failure" of local government debt reform, the "hijacking" of state-owned enterprise reform and, above all, the "fiasco" of cheer-leading an overheated sharemarket and then injecting trillions of yuan to soften the inevitable crash.
> 
> "There's nothing like a breakdown to reveal how an engine works," says Professor Naughton, in a paper to be delivered at Melbourne University's Centre for Contemporary China Studies on Friday and published next week by Stanford University's China Leadership Monitor.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...ts-bonanza-20150819-gj3aj7.html#ixzz3jKrUJVLj




I kind of like it when they sound just like me.  However, I did not need "a breakdown" to reveal how the engine worked and for years it's been mystifying as to how much cheer leading went on in local and global media in general given this should be no surprise.
Xi has presided over some horrible things recently, 


> “This is a concerted effort to discredit the entire cadre of rights defense lawyers,” said Carl Minzner, an expert on Chinese law at Fordham University. He said it was a “clear signal” that their use of high-profile cases and news media pressure to call attention to social problems would “no longer be tolerated.”http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/world/asia/china-crackdown-human-rights-lawyers.html?_r=0






> grim details on victims of the People’s Armed Police attack on Buddhist monks, nuns and pilgrims in the Place of the Gods, as Lhasa was traditionally known. Compiled for the Chinese leadership, the document notes that the body of one young Tibetan woman was riddled with 15 bullet holes. A compatriot felled by automatic weapons fire near the Ramoche Temple, in the ancient quarter of Lhasa, was shot 17 times.
> 
> This official chronicle of the massive attack on Buddhist demonstrators in central Lhasa in mid-March of 2008 also demonstrates the massive fabrication of “facts” that Communist Party leaders in Tibet and in Beijing presented to the world about how they handled the protests and the cause of deaths linked to the demonstrations, Tsomo pointed out.http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/chinas-crackdowns-in-tibet/
> 
> Lets' reward them with another (winter) Olympics!  We still run films about how shameful it was for the majority of Germans who new about the Holocaust but said nothing.  We know as much as they did.  Maybe they will make a documentary about us one day



but I'm still giving Xi the benefit of the doubt.  He was handed a catastrophe wrapped in a fortune cookie. He has to dance to the tune of the communist party until he has purged the monsters, (pretty much all of the CCP) and hopefully he will then be able to show a kinder face.
No one will look good trying to manage what has been mismanaged and lied about for about 25 years on the 'rich is glorious' front.


----------



## CanOz

China has billions of dollars worth of SOE's. Imagine the debt reform that they could unleash by selling state owned assets. Unfortunately, even though this was to be the 'next boom' in China, the party will take this opportunity to their grave.

CanOz


----------



## waterbottle

So essentially what this all boils down to is that the CCCP - the only organisation to date that has managed to successfully control 1 billion people over multiple decades to improve the lives of CCCP members - is willing to let it all go to hell and face civil unrest?


----------



## CanOz

waterbottle said:


> So essentially what this all boils down to is that the CCCP - the only organisation to date that has managed to successfully control 1 billion people over multiple decades to improve the lives of CCCP members - is willing to let it all go to hell and face civil unrest?




Its one reason i wanted to leave, i don't think this is going to end well....


----------



## waterbottle

From what I can see in response to the Tianjin explosions, the CCCP is still doing well at controlling the populous... or maybe that's just my observer bias given the lack of western articles describing revolt.


----------



## notting

It seems to be the most misunderstood aspect of China - the so called 'threat of social unrest.'  
Mao killed, tortured starved and worked to death about 10 times more than Hitler and Starlin.  Yet managed to maintain control over unrest.
China is a long way from the Mao experience despite it's continuing horrific legacy that is still going on on a massive scale.
They machine gun unrest and will even bomb it from the sky just like Syria, they have done it before and will use tanks on the people if they need to.
The people are powerless, voiceless and have no way of causing hardly a ripple, no matter what the Dictators do to them.

The thing will unravel if the Dictators turn on each other and so far Xi has held that off whilst purging quite a few so far.


----------



## waterbottle

Looks like there are more falls to come in China, as the SSE falls 8% !!!!

A comment from a social media website about the 8% drop:


> It's now 8%. We might see the circuit breaker today...
> 
> My office is completely silent. People are walking around with worried looks on their faces, both men and women alike. Everyone is choking.




Meanwhile, the Chinese pension funds (administered by local governments) can now invest 30% of net assets in the share markets.


As for what retail portfolios might be doing, here are some graphs I made a while back:







It won't be long now until those who invested at the start of the year are making a loss...


----------



## waterbottle

Some more select posts that illustrate the thinking going on at the moment. Translations were done by another poster on that website.



> Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3995290151
> 
> 现在开始V型反弹了，大家赶紧抄底啊！！！！！！！！！
> 
> A rebound is coming! Everybody buy now!!!!!!
> 
> 国家队护盘，直线拉升！！
> 
> National team protecting the market, staireway to heaven!!
> 
> 不服上午收盘看，下午，明天重新收回失地！！！
> 
> Anyone who disagree come back to me at market close this morning, afternoon, tomorrow, we will regain all our lost grounds!!!
> 
> 俺。。。俺。。。没喝醉
> 
> Me...Me...Me not drunk
> 
> 相信我，一定会大反弹的，现在不进什么时候进？
> 
> Believe in me! Rebound will happen! When are you going to buy if not now?
> 
> 无论怎样我都不想再投钱
> 
> I don't want to pour money in anymore
> 
> 这就是你的不对的，牛市的根基还在，要对市场充满信心
> 
> You are wrong. The basis for a bull market is still here. Be full of confidence in the market
> 
> 一大早爬起来看就跌停了,可别是金融危机的预兆，醉死了，还好投入的都是压岁钱。
> 
> I woke up and see (the market) drop to its lower limit, this is a sign for a financial crisis. Lucky I didn't throw my annual savings in it.
> 
> 没关系的，还会涨回来的，迟早5000点以上
> 
> No problem, the rebound will come. 5000 is coming.
> 
> 都金融危机了还想上5000
> 
> We're facing a financial crisis and you're dreaming of 5000
> 
> 哪有金融危机啊亲？ 中国的经济已经把美国打的不要不要的了，这次就算是金融危机，中国也是唯一的胜利者！
> 
> What are you talking about? Chinese economy is beating up America to hell and beyond. If financial crisis come China will be the only victor!
> 
> 那么屌？
> 
> wtf?
> 
> 是的，你看，美国的经济已经完蛋了，日本不敢和中国玩了，欧洲拼命的想和中国合作，就说明中国的经济是世界最好的！
> 
> Yes, look, American economy is over. Japan dares not play with China. Europe is signing deals China. This shows China economy is the best in the world!
> 
> 像你这种傻逼真是太多
> 
> There are too many ****ing retards like you






> Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3995170581
> 
> 股市还让不让人活了一开盘就跌到3300多 Is the stock market trying to kill us with the drop opening at 3300
> 
> 养老金现在入市没什么用了，超跌了。没信心 Pension fund entering the market is useless now that it's dropping so much. No confidence.
> 
> 养老金入市肯定是找低位入，管理基金那团队肯定不傻。人家目的是帮养老金赚钱，又不是帮你赚钱。 Pension fund is going to wait for a low price to buy, the fund management team are not idiots, their aim is to help make money for the fund, not for you. (upads's comment: the fund manager is aiming to make money for himself and obey the party's order)
> 
> 国家队都已死于天津大爆炸。 National team is dead from the Tianjin explosion.
> 
> 这次可能跌到二千点，毕竟全球各国股市都比我国便宜，不可能会花大钱来钱市吧！ We may see a drop to 2000, all the other markets are cheaper than our market, there's no way they will spend big money on us.
> 
> 3900点进的不抛，要不就把我的跌光。 I entered the market at 3900. I will not sell until it drops to zero.
> 
> 无药可救了 Beyond saving.






> Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3993980910
> 
> 养老金入市我有点怕，说难听点目前不是最佳的进入时机，现在进来买股票，就要做对冲减少损失，大盘做起来还好，做不起来，养老金为了不亏钱，马上就是空军主力，散户跟进来，没办法做对冲减少损失，有可能套死！ 最关键是早几天通过的，现在才公布，为什么呢？大家想想新闻谁控制的？如果早公布，大盘至于这么无下限？那么现在公布合适吗？公布了就代表马上入市吗？那么多钱不可能全买股票，对冲工具肯定要买，那么行情不顺利的时候，主力是谁不言而喻！说白了养老金是另一只郭嘉队，更加自由的郭嘉队！
> 
> Bla bla bla pension fund is another national team.
> 
> Bla bla bla they are announcing the pension fund entering the market too late. If they mentioned it earlier the market wouldn't drop. (upads's comment: actually, the pension fund entering the market was announced back in 29th June, you dimwit)
> 
> 看下周能不能在养老金的带领下，走出一波荡气回肠的5连阳，迎接阅兵向老兵致敬吧！
> 
> Let's see if we can get out of the bear market and salute our army on the parade under the leadership of the pension fund!
> 
> 子丹哥，一头雾水！这不是说了n多次！说是批复！现在又拿出来说！上上次说是准备，再上次又说年内！
> 
> Bro shut the **** up you dont know what you are saying you kept saying the market is going to go up last time last time and last last time!
> 
> 告诉你我要来救你了，你在撑一下
> 
> Hang on you are going to be saved.
> 
> 我在十八层地狱！上次拉到第九层又跌回十八层还重伤！
> 
> I am now at the deepest layer of hell! You pulled me half way up to earth and dropped me back down! Now I am in hell and heavily injured!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

2000 looks like a nice resting area. 

like all things what comes up comes down... shows how small memories are considering what happened in 08

once it settles there will be one hell of a range till the pain leaves the minds.


----------



## shouldaindex

Sounds like a HotCopper thread, guess the human brain isn't that different around the world.


----------



## notting

Hopefully the dictators have woken up to the fact that they should just let it rip.
Even if it goes to 1000 in three days, which it won't, it will then become old news and the rest of the world will start to think like it was 3 weeks ago and things will look fine. 
China is China, they will say, and there is plenty of places to get cheap labor now so who cares?


----------



## wayneL

shouldaindex said:


> Sounds like a HotCopper thread, guess the human brain isn't that different around the world.




Exactly what I was thinking lol


----------



## notting

> "The problem they have now is that they've spent as much as $US400bn supporting the currency and stock market and they are now worse off than when they started," said one person with close ties to the PBoC. "I think they got overconfident and underestimated how strong the global reaction would be to the devaluation."




When the currency is no longer affordable to support, what then? Tick Tock Tick Tock


----------



## waterbottle

> Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3996492611
> 
> 无论咱怎么玩，都免不了上当，早知道今天找个理由不看盘了，他奶奶的明知道有坑，我还往里面跳
> 
> No matter how I play the market I get ****ed. I'm not watching the market today. ****ing jumped into a trap despite seeing it.
> 
> 2500见了，我已经做好了下次牛市的准备。明儿卸载软件回归现实生活
> 
> I am seeing 2500. I am getting ready for the next bull market---uninstalling my (stock trade) software to get back to life.
> 
> 没事，今天只要不是买前面大炒股不要紧，尤其大幅创了新低的更没事
> 
> No problem, as long as you didn't buy high you are fine, and those stocks if you bought at new low will do just fine.
> 
> 我不是韭菜，我不是香肠，我是一个股民，我有尊严，对于你们大户的行为，我要求关闭中国股市！
> 
> I'm not a vegetable, I'm no a sausage. I am a investor, I have my pride. You institutional investors are evil, I request China to shut down its market!
> 
> 中国特色。政府人造牛市，违背规律，一旦崩塌，无可挽救。
> 
> Chinese characteristics. Govt. man made bull market, going against the law. Once it falls, there's no catching it.
> 
> 在加上说话不如放屁的郭嘉
> 
> And to add the country who speaks like fart. (郭嘉) is the same sound as (國家) to avoid censors.
> 
> 看郭嘉到底能怎么玩！
> 
> Let's see how the country/govt is going to play it out!
> 
> 明天应该不会像今天这样了吧
> 
> The same shouldn't happen on Tuesday...
> 
> 如果明天还这样，马上就让亲戚的养老金再次入市，我跟大盘玩到底
> 
> If it drops more tomorrow, I will have my relative's own pension enter the market. I will fight to the last breath!
> 
> 刚刚看阅兵排练，看着看着莫名的热泪盈眶，无论股市如何，我终究恨不起来，对国家只有爱
> 
> 就那么点钱，如果国家想要，拿去先用，7年以后我还是一条好汉
> 
> I just saw the parade rehearsal, I shed a tear of manhood. No matter how the stock market falls, I won't hate the country. I only have love for my country
> 
> It's just a few bucks. If the country wants it, they can take my money. In 7 years I will be back. (upads: wtf?)




SSE currently down 5.7% according to google finance


----------



## shouldaindex

The Chinese economy and stock market have very little correlation historically, especially so in the past year.

I tend to think when an economic meltdown occurs, it's obvious, you don't need to go looking for it.  Right now we're still looking for it, so still awaiting.


----------



## notting

shouldaindex said:


> The Chinese economy and stock market have very little correlation historically, especially so in the past year.
> I tend to think when an economic meltdown occurs, it's obvious, you don't need to go looking for it.  Right now we're still looking for it, so still awaiting.




Here's looking at you kid



notting said:


> The hitch -
> Problem is you can't fund public projects, in bulk, by pawning them off onto 'the people, as the dictatorship did with all the property con.' Which still accumulated massive debts and the extensiveness of it was largely motivated by graft, not genuine vision. (Air pollution is killing an average of 4,000 people a day in China) for 'China'.




Imports exports down over 8%
Property market off by 20% from highs.
Market Crashing, stimulus not working, Currency war pending, ports carrying 17% of trade exploding, North Korea (China) shooting.
PMI out and out obvious lie.

They tried to pull the same (property)con on the people by promoting the stock market in the propaganda press to make it look like the country was moving to consumerism from a Tiger.  Not so easy as we see.

Don't need to look too hard!


----------



## notting

notting said:


> They tried to pull the same (property)con on the people by promoting the stock market in the propaganda press to make it look like the country was moving to consumerism from a Tiger.




Still trying -


----------



## skyQuake

notting said:


> Still trying -
> 
> View attachment 64009




China CSI300 futs Limit down now...


----------



## notting

8.4% Smashing on the Shang Dang Fang Pang Wang Pow Kill Bang.
This is good.
Get it over and done with.  Everyone will start saying - SHANGHAI is just a gaming floor for property developers and not much to do with China economy and things will feel fine again. 
US futures were over around 2.4% up.  Second thinking themselves, now dropped back to 1.5% ish.


----------



## notting

What's next?
3.5 year jail term for spreading  rumors - AKA  'talking about the stock market?' 
1000 Yuan reward for dobbing in a friend.


----------



## db94

Classic path of an asset bubble. Wait for reversion to long term mean and reduction in volatility


----------



## notting

Haitong is one of the biggest *state-owned* brokerages in China, as powerful as Goldman or Morgan Stanley to the puppets, I mean people, I mean Chinese. 
"now under official investigation" by Chinese securities regulator!
I like Xi's vacuum cleaner.  I hope he gets em all, eventually.


----------



## notting

> Chinese Police declare they are going to crack down on "underground banks", blamed for "hot money" inflow to grow speculations in stock market
> led by a vice minister No.2 it will be a nationwide crack down more to stabilize the market.
> "Underground banks" have helped capital escape from our stock market so we must crack down!




This is such rubbish.  What caused the hot money was the communist propaganda in the media telling all the citizens that when markets were peaking that it was 'just the beginning.'

In my opinion The shadow banking system in China has always been the turbo in the engine and has been the worlds biggest and ultimately free market - Totally raw - unregulated and just runs a like a wild animal, which actually does quiet well in the wild!


----------



## waterbottle

Translated article said:
			
		

> CITIC Securities, "Finance" magazine, China Securities Regulatory Commission were asked to assist in the investigation the public security organs
> August 25, 2015 22:08:39 Source: Xinhua
> 
> Comments 0
> Print
> Big word
> Little word
> 
> Xinhua Beijing August 25 (Reporter Zou Wei), according to Reporters learned from relevant departments: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Xu 8 people suspected of illegal trading activities in securities, "Finance" magazine Wang, together with others suspected of fabricating and manufacturing dissemination of securities, futures false information, China Securities Regulatory Commission staff separations Ouyang Liu and a suspected insider trading, falsification of official documents stamp, said staff have been asked to assist in the investigation public security organs.




https://translate.google.com/transl...015-08/25/c_1116370857.htm&edit-text=&act=url


----------



## notting

If you don't jump out the window.

It's worse - 




This is China's Lloyd Blankfein.
Guess he was riding the trends too well.  You know, doing his job!


----------



## waterbottle

An illustrative graph that shows just how much more the CNY needs to be devalued compared to China's trading partners




More devluations to come? Or maybe the JPY and EUR will begin to appreciate?


----------



## waterbottle

http://tribune.com.pk/story/947338/audacious-move-china-scraps-loan-to-deposit-ratio-cap/

Let the loans floooowwwww


----------



## skyQuake

waterbottle said:


> http://tribune.com.pk/story/947338/audacious-move-china-scraps-loan-to-deposit-ratio-cap/
> 
> Let the loans floooowwwww




Its fineeee

Was mooted in 2012, talked about again in Late Jun 2015




Plus the chinese banks went to some lengths to disguise their true LtDR such as regarding some loans as investments or off bal sheet 

Besides... They're still quite a bit away from the CBA's healthy and safe LtDR @ 134%


----------



## waterbottle

China no longer ordering investment funds to purchase equities . Zerohedge is reporting that they have told brokerages to somehow support the market but there isn't a source.
Instead, they have decided to go after financial reporters for publishing bad news. They've also decided to relax their foreign property ownership laws but I would be hard pressed to find anyone interested 

Meanwhile, the VP of the Fed is saying that a rate hike is still on the cards and he's being supported by Carney (BOE). And here is where the CNY is going to end up in Australia:



> In Australia, where China this year surpassed the US as the biggest source of foreign property investment, officials are worried wealthy Chinese investors will pour more money into an already overheated market
> 
> Chinese investors are “looking for safe, stable, secure investments”, Treasurer Joe Hockey told The Wall Street Journal this week. “Australian real estate is very attractive for them in that *regard,” he said, singling out *“skittish Chinese investors”.
> 
> Mr Hockey said officials were monitoring overseas interest since the turmoil of recent days on global equity markets.
> 
> The government isn’t concerned with overseas purchases of newly built property. But officials believe many people, including from China and Southeast Asia, are abusing the system through loopholes to illegitimately buy existing homes and have recently began cracking down on them.
> 
> “Provided (the Chinese investment) goes into new real estate, creating the jobs in the construction industry that we want, that’s welcome,” Mr Hockey said.




Mercy, oh lord! ::


----------



## notting

WOW who'd have thought that one journalist could have so much power over the markets!



> A financial journalist has *"confessed"* to causing "panic and disorder" on China's stock market and inflicting "huge losses on the country", the AFP has reported, citing official state media.
> 
> Wang Xiaolu, a journalist with Caijing magazine, was detained by Chinese authorities following China's recent stock market crash.
> Wang *"confessed"* that his "false information" (educated opinion) had "caused panics and disorder at (the) stock market, seriously undermined the market confidence, and inflicted huge losses on the country and investors". (Say what the dictators tell you to say or this)
> 
> Wang wrote a story in July saying the securities regulator was studying plans for government funds to exit the market.  How evil
> 
> and in the small print along side the big story - Xinhua reported that authorities had also detained *an official *from China's state owned securities watchdog and four senior executives of the country's major securities dealer for "stock market violations".




We're not sure what stock market violations are, but they are really bad - If they make the dictatorship look bad or if a scapegoat is required.


----------



## notting

> While producer prices fell for the 42nd straight month in the latest sign that deflation remains a significant risk for the world's second-largest economy.
> The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.0 per cent, but much of the increase was due to soaring food prices - and mainly pork, which is heavily weighted in the index - not an improvement in economic activity.




Consumer prices are driven up by a small drop in the currency! Bit of a catch 22.  Lower the currency to improve exports but that will starve out the people on food inflation if they take it much further.

So what to do? fellow brutalizes. Well if we drop interest rates we will have to spend a fortune keeping the currency from falling too far and making food affordable, so infrastructure build here we come!?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> In my opinion The shadow banking system in China has always been the turbo in the engine and has been the worlds biggest and ultimately free market - Totally raw - unregulated and just runs a like a wild animal, which actually does quiet well in the wild!




Until the leveraged debt can't be repaid with free cash flow, which has always been dodgy because they just get more loans ie ponzi. When the money supply increases by 20% a year it's got to go somewhere, or else! So the debt fueled gluts in everything from property to iron ore to steel etc are coming home to roost with global consequences.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

skyQuake said:


> Plus the chinese banks went to some lengths to disguise their true LtDR such as regarding some loans as investments or off bal sheet
> 
> Besides... They're still quite a bit away from the CBA's healthy and safe LtDR @ 134%




It's the biggest Ponzi in the world, apart from the US dollar?

So where did you get that figure for CBA? How do the other banks compare? They are forcing me to gold, again!


----------



## skyQuake

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's the biggest Ponzi in the world, apart from the US dollar?
> 
> So where did you get that figure for CBA? How do the other banks compare? They are forcing me to gold, again!




https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/group-funding/credit-ratings-and-research.html
Page 6 on the S&P one, Fitch has some historical stuff too.

In general, Aus banks have been above 100% (high vs peers) for post GFC (don't have data for pre GFC)


----------



## Uncle Festivus

skyQuake said:


> https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/group-funding/credit-ratings-and-research.html
> Page 6 on the S&P one, Fitch has some historical stuff too.
> 
> In general, Aus banks have been above 100% (high vs peers) for post GFC (don't have data for pre GFC)




Something is going on here I think, and it is directly related to China? There have been reports of a crackdown on capital outflows from Chinese citizens already having an impact on the Aus property market in the last month?

The really interesting thing is that I got a call from the CBA last week asking if I felt all warm and fuzzy about being a customer and would I like to get a better interest rate on my accounts. I've never had this before as I've usually been the one to ask for a discretionary rate above the official rates. Naturally I said yes and so got another half percent just like that, at call. I also got her direct cba email to have cozy chats with - my own private banker?? WT?

I also handle my parents accounts and was able to get 3.5% at call with St George no problems.

I wonder if this means that unofficial rates will have to rise to attract bank capital in absence of the foreign depositors? Until that is, the local demand for housing finance drops off a precipice when the bubble finally bursts?

It will be interesting at the end off the month when I tell her I'm going to withdraw my money to another bank....are depositors finally having the last laugh?


----------



## PennD

https://mobile.twitter.com/alegrindal/status/644513263871492097


----------



## Logique

Unusual bearishness, given the hiding the Shanghai Composite has copped in recent months. My bolds.



> *Does Hong Kong's China options bear know something we don't*? - November 2, 2015
> SMH: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...ng-we-dont-20151029-gkme9s.html#ixzz3qHPO6bh2
> 
> There's a big China bear out there in the market and it's leaving some remarkably large and intriguing footprints in the Hong Kong options market.
> 
> In recent weeks some outsized bets have been placed in *put options* tied to three Hong Kong listed exchange traded funds that track Chinese A-shares indices: the CSOP China A50 ETF (ticker HK:2822), the iShares A50 ETF (HK:2823) and China AMC CSI 300 ETF (HK:3188).
> 
> The trades are positioned to make large profits from a fall in these indices, should they fall before the end of the month.
> 
> The puts in about 10 illiquid contracts have a value of about $US15 million ($21 million) but, such is the nature of options, sum to an effective exposure to the Chinese market of $US560 million.
> 
> The positions are unusual for three reasons. One is their *enormous size*, with open interest representing multiples of positions in related options in the same contract.
> 
> The other is the *universally bearish positioning* with action taking place in at-the-money or in-the-money put options that would profit from a decline in the underlying security.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Logique said:


> Unusual bearishness, given the hiding the Shanghai Composite has copped in recent months. My bolds.




Logique these type of articles are nothing more than clickbait. It is impossible to draw the conclusion that a large put trade is a large bet on a fall. They are just as likely (more likely in fact)  to be part of a mandated downside protection for a massive upside bet or any of 100 other non-directional derivative plays.


----------



## Logique

I'm sure you're right. Without the full details of their trading plan we're not really to know.

They might just be playing a spread, with Calls on the other side of the trade.


----------



## berrys

Definitely the end, looks like China is looking at the economic collapse in 2016.


----------



## notting

> Corporate indebtedness in China has ballooned from about 60 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008 to 157 per cent at the end of last year, according to research compiled by the bank. This compares with 92 per cent in Japan, 69 per cent in the US and 94 per cent for Europe.
> 
> In Brazil, a comparable emerging market, corporate indebtedness is worth just 64 per cent of GDP.
> 
> "What China will do is that it will have a low-amplitude credit event," says Mowat.
> 
> "The view is that having a very high-amplitude credit event, such as a Lehman's, is not considered a good idea at all.
> 
> "So we would see the Chinese banking system for a protracted time having high levels of provisions and a high level of write-offs," he said, "but all this will very much be controlled by the regulators."




A yes the old 'low-amplitude credit event.'  Remember them. No?  Oh.  

Maybe they mean low volume.


----------



## Logique

The Chinese stock market looks to be consolidating to me.


----------



## notting

> Counterfeiting is rampant in China with the country's own currency no exception, despite numerous crackdowns by authorities.
> 
> Police in the southern province of Guangdong announced in September that they seized piles of forged 100-yuan banknotes with a face value of 210 million yuan in a raid, according to reports.
> 
> Money counting machines are ubiquitous in Chinese shops, where customers making large purchases in cash need to use wads of notes to pay.




I've always said the Yuan wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and the Commi officials have always been the ones with the biggest printers.
The counting machine doesn't look at the notes too hard!!!!


----------



## CanOz

*China banks turn blind eye to soaring overdue loans*


Typical Chinese management behavior, hide the junk...


----------



## DB008

Very well worth a listen!

Skip to about 5 mins for interesting.

*Big China blues*​


> Australia is now 'open for business' after the negotiation of a free trade deal with China.
> 
> The Chinese economy may have slowed down but the federal government says forget about the mining boom. It's now all about the dining boom. But what about all the stories of collapsing stock markets and trillion dollar debts?
> 
> China's economy is the second largest economy in the world, but it's in need of serious reform.




http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/big-china-blues/6987246​


----------



## notting

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/03/you-should-fear-a-china-hard-landing.html

It's a given.


----------



## notting

Rembember the mantra of the last 12 months?
"Oh yes even if China only grows at 6% 5% or or even 4% given all the growth it has done and how big it is that is still going to be very good for Australia and it's mining etc.



> China's steel production will not recover next year, according to its official government forecaster, which believes demand for iron ore will decline by 4.2 per cent.
> 
> The report released today by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts steel production will fall 3.1 per cent to 781 million tonnes in 2016, as economic growth continues to moderate.
> 
> The forecast provides another round of bad news for Australian iron ore miners, which are already battling record low prices of around $US40 a tonne.
> 
> China's steel industry reached a long predicted turning point in 2015, as the economy slowed and over-supply in the property sector crimped demand for everything from machinery, to home appliances and cars.
> 
> This will see China's steel consumption post its first annual decline since 1995, falling 4.8 per cent this year, according to the government forecaster.
> 
> The declines are set to continue next year with consumption falling by 3 per cent to 648 million tonnes.
> 
> The declines this year have been faster than the institute predicted. Monday's downgrade to 2015 production was the third this year.
> 
> It believes iron ore demand, which fell 0.4 per cent in 2015, will decline by 4.2 per cent in 2016 to around 1.07 billion tonnes.
> 
> It sees steel for construction, machinery and home appliances, falling again in 2016, while demand from vehicle makers will rise 1 per cent.
> 
> The China Academy of Social Sciences believes there are nearly 18 million unsold apartments across the country.
> 
> This apartment glut, particularly in regional cities, has removed the key driver of demand for steel and few believe it is likely to recover in the near term.
> 
> "Over-investment and excessive inventory [in the property market] will still be the main problems in 2016," said the report.




"Hello, hello I can't here you."

What if it goes the opposite way? Which according to all the rubbish over the last 5 years from even the most conservative and best commentators and pro's was simply impossible.  What if, indeed :flush:


----------



## notting

> A slowdown in coal consumption in China has led to global carbon emissions growing by only 0.6 per cent in 2014, breaking with the fast emissions growth of 2-3 per cent per year since the early 2000s, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project.
> 
> Even more unexpectedly, emissions are projected to decline slightly in 2015, despite global economic growth tipped to come in at above 3 per cent.
> 
> This is all the more surprising, as in the past a fall in global emissions was always associated with a  recession,




Reading between the lines, what is seen?!!!!


----------



## notting

It seems that Xi has consolidated power and now structural changes in China are being accelerated.

Hence the plummeting of oil and resources.

The Chinese have already started manipulating the Yuan lower as soon as it got Reserve-Currency Status in the World Bank - unbelievably brazen manipulation lower - so obvious, with no one saying anything! That will continue. 

These shifts will not be painless, however, the development of a genuine demand/supply economy is obviously utterly necessary, for the Chinese economy as well as the need to address the environmental catastrophes being dealt with due to the vicious negligence by short sighted profiteering communist party dictators.

China's polluted air kills 4,400 a day.  To put that in perspective - 
The Chinese dictatorships neglect of environment and the Chinese people is equivalent to the Chinese Communist Party dropping 12 Hiroshima Nuclear bombs on the Chinese people every year!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/14/r-in-china-causes-16m-deaths-a-year-study.html

Not only that they have contaminated and are contaminating rivers which are the source of water for almost all of Asia. (That's nearly half the worlds water)

The Chinese have done this in unison with their brutal invasion and occupation of Tibet which is the highest point of Asia where all those rivers originate.  

http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/china-tibet-and-the-strategic-power-of-water/

Now let me hear an Ausi politician  praise them again for raising so many people out of poverty and offer our real estate up to them.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

China moving quickly to Xi dictatorship and many crackdowns on freedom, opposition (sorry, 'corrupt market manipulators') & free speech, at least the Chinese version of.

Must be a surplus at the organ donor banks  by now with all those dissenters being 'unavailable'?


----------



## drsmith

Short session in Shanghai today.

Down 7% in half an hour and the closing bell rung.


----------



## shouldaindex

Can someone give me a summary of why a 0.3% Yuan devaluation is terrible news?


----------



## notting

shouldaindex said:


> Can someone give me a summary of why a 0.3% Yuan devaluation is terrible news?




Well China lies and cheats.  The Chinese are not playing according to the agreements that everyone else has to play by like their currency is not free floating it's manipulated.
Foolishly Australia has invested in their Yaun based bank against US advice as did many others thinking they would get some favour from doing so.  No they are all now losing money. 

Further the Chinese started pushing the Yaun lower as soon as they got Reserve-Currency Status in the World Bank which they got after a period of artificially stabilising the Yaun agains the US $ for a period long enough to make it look like they were playing according to the rules. 

So the Chinese are once again exporting deflation, setting H bombs off in North Korea, who just do what the Chinese tell them to, whilst the Chinese pretend to be agains it and not the ones ordering it, so they can use so called North Korea to distract from what the Chinese are really doing. All coinciding at a time when the selling of shares was going to be allowed to come back on line in the Chinese markets. so they could blame soveregn unrest for market volatility.

Exporting deflation trips up all the idiots who thought they were going to make a fortune out of the rubbish notion of a rising middle class in China. So global markets get effected, China steels all the technology and international money invested in it and internationals get screwed and the world is still too stupid to realise it for the most part.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/china-guides-yuan-sharply-lower-jolts-markets-offshore-currency-plunges.html


----------



## shouldaindex

I knew I still wouldn't understand the answer!


----------



## CanOz

Looks like there going to be a little less aggressive....maybe they've realised they spooked the market....

Thats what i can't figure out, they spend billions trying to prop up the market on Tuesday, only to see it all unwound by Thursday, they must hold allot of overvalued stock



> 16:38(CN) CFETS: Mechanism to fix Yuan to dollar midpoint has achieved anticipated result; Yuan midpoint will be more market based in the future- Will keep Yuan basically stable against basket of currencies (related USD/CNY FXI CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Modest

Tomorrow will be interesting



> China CSRC reportedly suspends new circuitbreaker rules - financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Tomorrow will be interesting




the markets a little worried that these guys have NFI!


----------



## notting

It was obvious what the dictatorship was going to do once they made the sensible decision to can the circuit breaker.  They would, instead, simply buy shares as soon as things looked realistically catastrophic. 
The hard landing is to be made to look like a looooooooooooooooooooooooooong slow landing.
Lets face it dictatorships have no innovation, no motivation and nobody winning other than the party and their comrades in inhumane crime.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Can the Regime maintain strict control over every citizen within its borders and simultaneously allow a truly free market?  The two things are antithetical.  "Truly free" - probably considered obscene words.  

Plastic markets.....  :bonk::error:


----------



## CanOz

Its gets better, apparently this guy didn't do a good enough job....maybe he'll jump instead..



> 10:55(CN) China CSRC chief Xiao Gang expected to announce plans to resign over the weekend - Chinese press (related USD/CNY PGJ FXI EUR/CNY RUB/CNY JPY/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Wysiwyg

Extract from second post back in 2008 thread beginning.



tradingforwealth said:


> Anyway, BHP has in most of their announcements that they *expect* this commodity boom to last for 10-20years more.



"Expect" is a tough word. It leads to much disappointment. "Could" is a less harsh word with a modicum of caution entwined.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

What they're trying to do is prevent normal human emotion - fear of loss.  It is incredibly unsophisticated.

The end result of preventing normal human emotion is amplification of that same emotion.  So we can reliably expect fear to get out of control.  Won't happen immediately, but will build every time they halt falling markets.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Gringotts Bank said:


> What they're trying to do is prevent normal human emotion - fear of loss.  It is incredibly unsophisticated.
> 
> The end result of preventing normal human emotion is amplification of that same emotion.  So we can reliably expect fear to get out of control.  Won't happen immediately, but will build every time they halt falling markets.




Maybe buyers are not keen to buy because when the trading halt is lifted the sell panic buttons are hit again. I agree the market sell downs should not be interfered with.


----------



## CanOz

Wysiwyg said:


> Maybe buyers are not keen to buy because when the trading halt is lifted the sell panic buttons are hit again. I agree the market sell downs should not be interfered with.




Circuit breakers are a good idea on a mature market, it allows the herd to calm down. The thing is here, the view is 'we need to sell before the breakers kick in'...There are hedge funds that have hit their loss limits as well and they've got calls for withdrawals...Every-time there has been an opportunity, they've been selling. 

Its a big herd here, the current market volatility hasn't been taken into consideration either, when establishing the limits...that's the chatter on my 'Bejing trader and investors group' anyway...

If y'all have any questions, let me know, i can post the question and thier answers here. Most of them are fund managers, locals. All the foreigners have pulled stumps


----------



## CanOz

i guess this was expected....



> 2:25(CN) China authorities said to have intervened to help support the stock market in today's session - financial press (related PGJ FXI EEM) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Circuit breakers are a good idea on a mature market, it allows the herd to calm down. The thing is here, the view is 'we need to sell before the breakers kick in'...There are hedge funds that have hit their loss limits as well and they've got calls for withdrawals...Every-time there has been an opportunity, they've been selling.
> 
> Its a big herd here, the current market volatility hasn't been taken into consideration either, when establishing the limits...that's the chatter on my 'Bejing trader and investors group' anyway...
> 
> If y'all have any questions, let me know, i can post the question and thier answers here. Most of them are fund managers, locals. All the foreigners have pulled stumps




Yes, I'm very keen to understand the local sentiment.

Here's my proposed solution.  Would like yours and your colleagues' feedback:  

Designate a date 2 years hence, letting all market participants know that after this date, there will be no interventions should the market fall sharply.  The dynamics and perosnality of the markets would then change gradually over the next 2 years in anticipation of this change. Markets should become much more organic and real.  People will start to undertsand markets are emergent phenomena, created by mass psychology.  As such, markets need total freedom to do what they do, without interference (and honest market participants who follow rules).

And if US markets could do the same, that would be great.  Send Trumpy an email.  I reckon he'd be into free markets!


----------



## Rainman

CanOz said:


> ... Its a big herd here, the current market volatility hasn't been taken into consideration either, when establishing the limits...that's the chatter on my 'Bejing trader and investors group' anyway...




The Chinese equity markets are very unsophisticated because they are dominated, not by institutional investors who on the whole tend to have some idea of the value of what they're buying, but by retail investors who basically treat the equity markets as huge casinos.  

One report has found that 85% of equity trades in China are made by retail investors and that they trade more than any other investors on Earth: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/09/three-charts-explaining-chinas-strange-stock-market.html.  More than two-thirds of these investors have not even graduated from high school.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Rainman said:


> The Chinese equity markets are very unsophisticated because they are dominated, not by institutional investors who on the whole tend to have some idea of the value of what they're buying, but by retail investors who basically treat the equity markets as huge casinos.
> 
> One report has found that 85% of equity trades in China are made by retail investors and that they trade more than any other investors on Earth: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/09/three-charts-explaining-chinas-strange-stock-market.html.  More than two-thirds of these investors have not even graduated from high school.




I'd *love *to trade a market like that (only without the interference).  Mean reversion strategies would yield $$$$$$.


----------



## satanoperca

Remove all circuit breakers,  it is a market, should be free of intervention within reason.

Allow the participants to understand risk, abet at the extremes and the masses will learn and the market will sort itself out. Cannot have 100% growth in a year and expect some sort of regression to fair value.

Overall, this is just part of a functioning system that is learning to walk, the Chinese will learn and get better.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Circuit breaker has just been dumped by the Party.  (ABC news).

I guess at least they realize the importance of a free market, but the suddenness of such a move is stupid.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> The Chinese stock market fell dramatically last week. That sounds significant but it actually isn’t. First, the Chinese stock market doesn’t serve the same function as Western markets. The equities that are sold there do not allow shareholders to control companies, nor are the underlying values of these companies correlated to the price of the stocks in any way. Second, the percentage of China’s wealth that flows through the markets is relatively small compared to the size of China’s economy. Market capitalization has little to do with value of Chinese companies.
> 
> The really significant news last week related to China’s foreign reserves. The People’s Bank of China revealed on Jan. 7 that the country ended 2015 with less foreign reserves than it started the year with. It was the first time reserves shrank over the course of a year since 1992. In effect, China saw its first decline in reserves since the Chinese boom really got under way. The surprising part of this development is not the contraction, since that’s been going on for at least a year, but the fact that it was announced.



This week in Politics - _George Friedman_


"If trends continue, the middle class in low and middle income countries will grow from 5% in 2005, to 25% in 2030. China alone will add one billion people to the middle class"
http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/MIC-Forum-Rise-of-the-Middle-Class-SM13.pdf


----------



## notting

Dona Ferentes said:


> "If trends continue, the middle class in low and middle income countries will grow from 5% in 2005, to 25% in 2030. China alone will add one billion people to the middle class"




What trend?  Its all book cooking from China. 

The The Chinese Dictators were stuck with the obvious problem of how to shift the ghost of it's Tiger economy that invested most of  it's money over the last 10 to 15 years on over building and spruiking real estate in the communist controlled press - worthless real estate to 'the people' who had become a middle class of sorts on the back of huge slave labor factories pumping out crap to the world.

So how do you transform the economy from a Tiger economy to a consumer economy when 'the people', rightly so, horde all their savings because they cannot and do not trust the unelected dictators?

Well, get the comminust think tank to come up with another scam -  'feed their greed'.  Let the people think they will make more money in the 'infallible Chinese stock market,' pump it so much in the communist press, the only press there is in China is propaganda, and let the stock market run parabolically so that all 'the people' want a peace of the action.  The Communist media in all its forms was telling the people it was just the beginning when the SHANGHAI was in the 5000s!

'We mobilize the consumer and get all their saving out of their horde houses making our services sector look like it's totally taking off and we are instantly transformed!! into a consumer society.
Brilliant comrades!'

The stock market is not as easy to fudge as the property market, it moves around on what ever wind is blowing and is a product of free speech and freedom and can only function properly on the basis of democracy.  That is because if you can't say whatever you want, debate and give opinion freely about stocks and dictators try to control it for ulterior motives - like to keep the dictator in power - then it's going to be a total mess - disaster!

Middle class my ass.

There are two classes The Dictatorship and 'The People'.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> What trend?  Its all book cooking from China.
> 
> The The Chinese Dictators were stuck with the obvious problem of how to shift the ghost of it's Tiger economy that invested most of  it's money over the last 10 to 15 years on over building and spruiking real estate in the communist controlled press - worthless real estate to 'the people' who had become a middle class of sorts on the back of huge slave labor factories pumping out crap to the world.
> 
> So how do you transform the economy from a Tiger economy to a consumer economy when 'the people', rightly so, horde all their savings because they cannot and do not trust the unelected dictators?
> 
> Well, get the comminust think tank to come up with another scam -  'feed their greed'.  Let the people think they will make more money in the 'infallible Chinese stock market,' pump it so much in the communist press, the only press there is in China is propaganda, and let the stock market run parabolically so that all 'the people' want a peace of the action.  The Communist media in all its forms was telling the people it was just the beginning when the SHANGHAI was in the 5000s!
> 
> 'We mobilize the consumer and get all their saving out of their horde houses making our services sector look like it's totally taking off and we are instantly transformed!! into a consumer society.
> Brilliant comrades!'
> 
> The stock market is not as easy to fudge as the property market, it moves around on what ever wind is blowing and is a product of free speech and freedom and can only function properly on the basis of democracy.  That is because if you can't say whatever you want, debate and give opinion freely about stocks and dictators try to control it for ulterior motives - like to keep the dictator in power - then it's going to be a total mess - disaster!
> 
> Middle class my ass.
> 
> There are two classes The Dictatorship and 'The People'.




What a ridiculous rant....

We get it that you don't like these guys...

Your ranting might be preventing people from having some form of DISCUSSION on the subject.

Honestly, the negativity on the forum gives me the sh*ts...you haven't even lived in China. How is it that i manage to stay positive living in this cold damp sh*thole with the 'party' until i read ASF every day!


----------



## notting

Don't join the Falun Gong whilst your there.

What you need to do is provide an argument that proves what I say is incorrect. What I am saying is exactly how it is with their economic activities.

Ranting does nothing of substance which is what you just did.

Here is some substance about harsher end of The Chinese Communist Parties ways -




> *Nobel Peace Prize nominee, lawyer* and politician David Kilgour, have spent years investigating organ trafficking in China.






> They believe some of the organs come from members of the Falun Gong movement – a quasi-religious group with millions of followers, which is banned by the Chinese Government.
> 
> “Falun Gong, before it was repressed was very popular in China,” David Matas says. “It’s estimated, according to government of China statistics, between 70 and 100 million people, which was then more than the membership of the Communist Party of China.”
> 
> Investigators claim thousands of them have been detained by authorities.
> 
> “I testify to the atrocious crime that the hospital committed in removing livers and corneas from living Falun Gong members,” says former worker Annie.
> 
> “Some of them were still alive when they were secretly burnt in the incinerator that was in the boiler room.”




Don't say free Tibet - 


Don't say free East Turkistan - 



The Chinese make the Nazis look like kittens.  You want me to say nothing about their economy even??!  Hail Hitler then?


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> What you need to do is provide an argument that proves what I say is incorrect. What I am saying is exactly how it is with their economic activities.




Start your own thread then, instead of clogging this one up with your off topic rants. I'm not saying you always post stuff that is useless, but why does it have to be in a thread that should be discussing the end of the boom in China? Its not like its a one off either, you actually go out of your way every day or two to reply to a post about China, WHY???


----------



## notting

Why?
The reason is that what I say still seems surprising and unrealistic to people.  When it sincerely isn't and is an accurate picture of what China is and does.
If people had listened to me two years ago about the impending real estate problems they probably would have gotten out of our mining stocks sooner and perhaps never been so bullish.
If they had listened to me seven years ago crazy things like BHPs attempted take over of RIO for $139 per share would not have been seen as a good move! etc.
In general if we open our doors naively to the Chinese and they get into our politics, just like we have been sucked into their world bank (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)) which is now looking dubious given it was created whilst they held the yuan up but are now a letting it drop etc etc.  We could be the Tibetans, East Turkistans, Falun Gong members.  

This is all relevant to the End of The China Bull.  It is the very substance of the China Bull.  
Sorry if it makes it hard for you.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Why?
> The reason is that what I say still seems surprising and unrealistic to people.  When it sincerely isn't and is an accurate picture of what China is and does.
> If people had listened to me two years ago about the impending real estate problems they probably would have gotten out of our mining stocks sooner and perhaps never been so bullish.
> If they had listened to me seven years ago crazy things like BHPs attempted take over of RIO for $139 per share would not have been seen as a good move! etc.
> In general if we open our doors naively to the Chinese and they get into our politics, just like we have been sucked into their bank which is now looking dubious given it was created whilst they held the yen up now a letting it drop etc etc.
> This is all relevant to the End of The China Bull.  It is the very substance of the China Bull.
> Sorry if it makes it hard for you.




I actually totally agree with you on most of what you say, but i'd rather see it in a thread for that, call it corruption or something. I may actually have more real life stories to contribute after i leave. I just think there is allot of good discussion about the economy that were missing because it keeps getting de-railed onto how bad the CPC is. 

Anyway, whatever...I spend too much time on forums anyway


----------



## CanOz

Errr, back to End of the Bull....



> 09:07(CN) China banks' non-performing loans (NPLs) said to have more doubled in 2015 vs 2014 - financial press (related USD/CNY 3988.HK 1398.HK 939.HK PGJ FXI IXG CNY/USD CYB 601988.CN 349.HK 601398.CN 601939.CN SX7PEX.DE) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Gringotts Bank

So far, removing circuit breakers hasn't met with disaster.  That's gotta be a good thing.


----------



## notting

Gringotts Bank said:


> So far, removing circuit breakers hasn't met with disaster.  That's gotta be a good thing.




They really need to get out of the way now. It looked like they sat on their hands yesterday.  But are in defending the SHANGHAI - 3000 or August low today.
It will have to fall below the August lows without the look of any interference so people can be confident that it has found a genuine price discovery bottom.  
That will make people think it is now 'real', problem is, what is the reality?!


----------



## satanoperca

Gringotts Bank said:


> So far, removing circuit breakers hasn't met with disaster.  That's gotta be a good thing.




Who could of guessed, when you remove govnuts intervention in a market, the market becomes functional and working again.


----------



## Rainman

Anyone who thinks that the recent ructions affecting the Chinese stock market are representative of the performance of the Chinese economy, let alone of the future direction of that economy, clearly does not know China or its economy.


----------



## CanOz

The mainland equity market is or is headed where it should be, in the :flush:

The economy on the mainland is or is headed in the :flush:

No doubt, if the equity market was left to the natural process, it would auction towards some kind of fair valuation, far below the levels we're at now

I think the economy was bad before the casino turned sour

TBH, i don't think this economy can ever recover if the culture doesn't change. Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple. Its all around you here, at all levels in the organisation, from the security guard to the canteen manager, from the cleaner to the CEO. They're all corrupt...everything else is just like their glass buildings, a great facade!


There needs to be a business revolution here, like the quality revolution in Japan.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple.




And it's these business owners who are buying up all the real estate (cash of course) and destroying entire suburbs with their border-to-border French bloody Provincial mansions.  

If we had Columbian drug lords doing the same, .... ahhh, who am I kidding!  Complaining about ill gotten gains is a waste of time.  Government is happy because they get to fool the public that they hold ever-appreciating assets (economy must be good, eh?).  Councils love it because they get to charge ever-increasing rates.  The plebs love it because they have no idea what's going on.  They think Chinese property buyers are rich because they are smart, or they work hard.


----------



## Rainman

CanOz said:


> The mainland equity market is or is headed where it should be, in the :flush:
> 
> The economy on the mainland is or is headed in the :flush:
> 
> No doubt, if the equity market was left to the natural process, it would auction towards some kind of fair valuation, far below the levels we're at now
> 
> I think the economy was bad before the casino turned sour
> 
> TBH, i don't think this economy can ever recover if the culture doesn't change. Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple. Its all around you here, at all levels in the organisation, from the security guard to the canteen manager, from the cleaner to the CEO. They're all corrupt...everything else is just like their glass buildings, a great facade!
> 
> 
> There needs to be a business revolution here, like the quality revolution in Japan.




If China got through Mao and the Cultural Revolution, it will get through this.


----------



## CanOz

Rainman said:


> If China got through Mao and the Cultural Revolution, it will get through this.




One could argue that he's to blame.....


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> The mainland equity market is or is headed where it should be, in the :flush:
> 
> The economy on the mainland is or is headed in the :flush:
> 
> No doubt, if the equity market was left to the natural process, it would auction towards some kind of fair valuation, far below the levels we're at now
> 
> I think the economy was bad before the casino turned sour
> 
> TBH, i don't think this economy can ever recover if the culture doesn't change. Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple. Its all around you here, at all levels in the organisation, from the security guard to the canteen manager, from the cleaner to the CEO. They're all corrupt...everything else is just like their glass buildings, a great facade!
> 
> 
> There needs to be a business revolution here, like the quality revolution in Japan.




Great Post!
Truly informative from the ground. 
A little more on how things are looking - 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-07-04/china-rongsheng-halts-trading-in-shares-after-report-on-job-cuts

Doesn't sound like slowing growth.
Sounds like contraction!


----------



## shouldaindex

CanOz said:


> One could argue that he's to blame.....




Mao money Mao problems.


----------



## notting

shouldaindex said:


> Mao money Mao problems.




What is funny about Mao money is -

When China established in 2004 offshore renminbi (CNH) market, which continued to climb especially once the bond market was established in 2007 and has been played against the mainland pegged (China manipulated) Yuan quite consistently, however, Yuan deposits continued to pick up with the launch of the trade settlement scheme in 2009–2010.
The crucial thing about the offshore Yuan (CNH) is that it doesn't fluctuate within a tight band like the onshore renminbi (CNY) and is free of China's control in that regard.

So as everyone with half a brain knows the Chinese would start to trash their currency as soon as they got world banks status and so started selling CNH. But because the Chinese do not want to look too conspicuous they are keen to try to make it look subtle so they have been lowering the peg slowly.  This made for a great carrie trade where you could buy the offshore CNH and sell it for the pegged CNY .  So the peg cost the Chinese more to keep it there.
Then the Chines got wise to what was going on so they decided to defend the currency by buying up CNH to raise and cover the gap in the carry trade.  They did this with an aggressive announcement 'that those betting against the CNY would lose.' (Trying to sound like super Mario) Their defense lasted about 24 hours and the gap opened up again.  So they have spent about 50 billion and gone no where. 

Do it again!! Ha ha.  - Nowhere to run - the Chinese have to buy their own bullsh!t.

And for some icing on the cake - Singapore, Taiwan, and London also since developed their own offshore Yuan markets.


----------



## notting

Happy Australia Day.  Whilst our market it closed.  China becomes a little more real!

Break Down -


----------



## notting

[video]http://media.scribblelive.com/2016/1/26/aa7c5976-5b20-428a-a865-1456cc2d4c6b.mp4[/video]

Perhaps now that 'vicious short sellers' and 'major steak holders' have been locked up and banned from selling China's Communist Party has decided do all the selling and get all the action for itself!


----------



## daytradeprofit

notting said:


> [video]http://media.scribblelive.com/2016/1/26/aa7c5976-5b20-428a-a865-1456cc2d4c6b.mp4[/video]
> 
> Perhaps now that 'vicious short sellers' and 'major steak holders' have been locked up and banned from selling China's Communist Party has decided do all the selling and get all the action for itself!




Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Shcomp Moving towards the support level in 2585-2612
This points or support points fracturing
Break there, send the index to the 2141-2210
On the other hand, support back it up
In any case, if it appears the previous crash, both in graph and in terms of turnover,
Stop and long-term support, averaging strip lies on a sophisticated level of 2141-2210


----------



## notting

China threatens Soros -



> George Soros will not win an FX battle with the PBoC. At least that’s Beijing’s message to the billionaire, as conveyed via a characteristically hilarious “op-ed” in the People’s Daily entitled “Declaring war on China’s currency? Ha ha”
> 
> Yes, “ha, ha.” Although there’s nothing funny about the $1 trillion in capital that fled the country in 2015 on the heels of the PBoC’s bungled effort to “manage” a controlled devaluation of the yuan.
> 
> Although Soros didn’t specifically mention either the RMB or the HKD, he did indicate he is betting against Asian currencies in an interview with Bloomberg TV last week and that, apparently, was cause for Beijing to issue a stern warning.
> 
> “Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt,” the People’s Daily says, after calling Soros “the financial crocodile,” and blaming the billionaire for “increasing volatility in already unstable financial markets.”
> 
> Perhaps Beijing knows something everyone else doesn’t, or perhaps the PBoC simply assumes that when Soros mentions “hard landing” and betting against Asian currencies in the same breath it probably means he’s short the yuan, but whatever the case, Chinese authorities have ramped up the rhetoric in the past several days.
> 
> “Reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences,” Xinhua wrote over the weekend. “And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.”
> 
> The ironic thing about the latter passage there is that Soros actually echoed that sentiment in the interview China appears to be referencing. “China can manage it. It has resources and greater latitude in policies, with $3tn in reserves,” he said.
> 
> Of course China won't be able to arrest Soros and beat a confession out of him like Beijing is fond of doing to others suspected of launching "malicious" short attacks, but the brash commentary does indicate that Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly sensitive to suggestions that a steeper RMB devaluation is a foregone conclusion.
> - From Zero Hedge




I'm sure Soros is happy about it.  They can't arrest him.  
All they will do is try to save face by delaying the inevitable a little longer at a huge price!


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> China threatens Soros -
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure Soros is happy about it.  They can't arrest him.
> All they will do is try to save face by delaying the inevitable a little longer at a huge price!




Soros wouldn't try and break the RMB like he did the pound, but if he believes the economy is slowing in China then he'll be short because he knows rates have to go lower, and so the rest of the Asian currencies. the PBOC is therfore betting against themselves if they take the attitude of beating Soros...Weird....sounds like the jouro's need a lesson in economics


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Soros wouldn't try and break the RMB like he did the pound, but if he believes the economy is slowing in China then he'll be short because he knows rates have to go lower, and so the rest of the Asian currencies. the PBOC is therfore betting against themselves if they take the attitude of beating Soros...Weird....sounds like the jouro's need a lesson in economics




Yeah the size is too big for Soros to go it alone.  
I think the Chinese are trying to 'out shout' because Sorros's call to them was a call to arms. So what they are afraid of is losing face amidst contagion.  
It's inevitable so they are being totally stupid.  The Chinese are still trying to trick the world into thinking the Yaun devaluation is not inevitable.  It's an easy trade and a massive whale floundering in the water.  
The Chines are too wound up in their control history and face saving.  
As we know you couldn't have a worse trading mentality!!


----------



## notting

The cost of faking it, so far -


----------



## notting

There are smart people in the world after all -

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html

Yep.


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> There are smart people in the world after all -
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html
> 
> Yep.




Get ready for even more cheaper crap from China to hit our shores.

As for the Australian property market, will be interesting to see how all those Chinese Investors will settle on their newly built apartments in the coming year.

This may just be the turning point.


----------



## CanOz

satanoperca said:


> Get ready for even more cheaper crap from China to hit our shores.
> 
> As for the Australian property market, will be interesting to see how all those Chinese Investors will settle on their newly built apartments in the coming year.
> 
> This may just be the turning point.




They'll never sell, they'd likely try and sell the mainland stuff first as they won't want to repatriate at a huge loss on the currency exchanges. So that would mean a bigger correction for the mainland and Hong Kong markets I reckon...


----------



## satanoperca

CanOz said:


> They'll never sell, they'd likely try and sell the mainland stuff first as they won't want to repatriate at a huge loss on the currency exchanges. So that would mean a bigger correction for the mainland and Hong Kong markets I reckon...




I agree with your comment, however I was referring to those that have bought off the plan apartments and need to settle sometime over the next 12-18months. A drop of 30% in currency is going to make our property which is already expensive even more so. 

On the other hand, all those that have bought in Australia, would make a nice trade selling up and moving the profits back to China.

Interesting times. Glad I made my contact for services with two Chinese companies in US$.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

notting said:


> There are smart people in the world after all -
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html
> 
> Yep.




Don't really have to be all that smart to see what's going to happen here, or in any other fiat indebted economy, which is the global economy. He's just got the balls to go big with his convictions.

Video here - 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ma...sis-is-betting-against-chinas-yuan-2016-02-03

Thinking about straws and camels backs.......lot's of contagion going on now, big losses by fundies getting caught on the wrong side of currencies just as CB's announce their latest attempt to save the world from the problem they created. That will be hard to 'contain' (thanks Benny) when it percolates through the system, eventually.

History will show this period in China's history to one of the worlds greatest examples of a flawed fiat Ponzi scheme on a grand scale.


----------



## satanoperca

Uncle Festivus said:


> History will show this period in China's history to one of the worlds greatest examples of a flawed fiat Ponzi scheme on a grand scale.




I still don't understand what is with the China bashing, maybe it is a Aussie thing, tall poppies and all.

Hasn't China been able to lift a huge population out of abject poverty?
Have they not been able to education a huge population?
Have they not been able to become a super power is a very short period of time?

What has Australia achieved in the last 30 years?

Give credit where credit is due.

Sure they have made mistakes, but haven't we.


----------



## notting

Now before you read my reply.
Just imagine that you are a German back in say 1940 and that you have made these suggestions regarding the Nazi Regime, because you don't know any better.  Then someone tells you what the Nazis were really doing.  Would you still go into bat for them? -



satanoperca said:


> I still don't understand what is with the China bashing, maybe it is a Aussie thing, tall poppies and all.




There is no China bashing, it's a very gentle thread considering the reality of the evil.




satanoperca said:


> Hasn't China been able to lift a huge population out of abject poverty?




No.  China uses massive, cruel slave labor camps to create wealth for communist party members and their cronies.



satanoperca said:


> Have they not been able to education a huge population?




Absolutely not.  There is no freedom of speech in China and all the media is state controlled.  The population is utterly brainwashed with lies about Chinese history, the west and even the goings hidden prison camps, re education camps and genocide in countries China occupies.




satanoperca said:


> Have they not been able to become a super power is a very short period of time?




China is quite powerful as were the Nazis for a while, China treats people and animals far worse than the Nazis and on far larger scale.  They would invade and enslave any nation or people as soon as they feel they have overwhelming strength a nothing can stand in their way.
That's hardly a noble achievement you want to call noble.



satanoperca said:


> What has Australia achieved in the last 30 years?




Irrelevant. Australians cans speak freely, vote for who leads them and determine their own destiny. 



satanoperca said:


> Sure they have made mistakes, but haven't we.




Every one makes mistakes.  The communist Chinese have no conscience or regrets or value for human rights.  It's part of their charter.  That's not a mistake.  It's a psychopathic monstrous  regime like the world has never seen before.

Here is one of countless examples I could give you -



History remains some what misidentified, and confounded by the lack of moral integrity let alone simple humane sympathy lacking in the general  German populous regarding the Jews.  The German people were discovered to be kind of OK with it because Hitler was able to sell them the theory that the Jews were responsible for Germany's economic woes.  Even those who heard rumours but did nothing, said nothing and still pledged allegiance to their charismatic leader - Hitler are condemned by history.  There are documentaries show how when Germany was defeated the Allies forced many Germans to help clean out the Death camps as a way of forcing them to confront their moral cowardliness. 

History condemns the German populous lack of moral fiber people even though they were in Germany and in danger if they stuck up for the Jews or even challenged regime.  

But we are not in that situation, or even in China. 

None of us are under threat right now.  
China is worse and the scale is massive, far, far greater.  

So what kind of people are we? 
How will history paint us?

It seems more like the real problem no China questioning, apposing in any way let alone bashing.

I hope that answers your question.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

satanoperca said:


> I still don't understand what is with the China bashing, maybe it is a Aussie thing, tall poppies and all.
> 
> Hasn't China been able to lift a huge population out of abject poverty?
> Have they not been able to education a huge population?
> Have they not been able to become a super power is a very short period of time?
> 
> What has Australia achieved in the last 30 years?
> 
> Give credit where credit is due.
> 
> Sure they have made mistakes, but haven't we.




Not bashing at all, it's just that they have taken the fiat debt model to the extreme to do all of that, so in essence they are still a poor country, the only thing that has changed is that they have expanded their money supply (backed up essentially by nothing) to the point of no return.

Watch the Kyle Bass interview to get a better idea of what's going on. He's not alone either - Stanley Druckenmiller and several other 'bashers' have the same view that what they are doing is a house of cards reflected in an avenue of mirrors. They literally don't have an organic supply/demand model - it's all top down directives from the elites.



> “You can’t grow your banking system 1,000% in 10 years and not have a loss cycle. And your currency won’t stay strong when you go to rectify that balance,” he said. The hedge-fund manager said China’s banking system has ballooned to $34.5 trillion from 2005 to 2015. By comparison, China’s gross domestic product was $10.2 trillion, according to data from the World Bank.



There is no economic model that can take 1.5 billion (rural) people and give them a lifestyle like ours, sustainably. There won't be a transition to the fabled internal consumption model that wont rely on exports for growth as they are too poor to sustain that. They need to be complicit with the US to recycle US dollars around the trade network to keep the illusion of global growth going, all the while trying to rid themselves of something (dollars) that is losing value for them.

It's as much a story on the downfall of the US as it is China - mutually assured financial destruction?


----------



## DeepState

Looking for concrete responses pls:

What are the primary mechanisms which citizens in China are using to circumvent capital account rules?

With China increasingly attempting to preserve reserve assets, how likely is it that these newer initiatives relating to FFX restrictions etc. will work and help stem outflow? [NB. Head of SAFE has dismissed the idea of capital controls proposed by Kuroda in the last few hours.]


----------



## fraa

DeepState said:


> Looking for concrete responses pls:
> 
> What are the primary mechanisms which citizens in China are using to circumvent capital account rules?
> 
> With China increasingly attempting to preserve reserve assets, how likely is it that these newer initiatives relating to FFX restrictions etc. will work and help stem outflow? [NB. Head of SAFE has dismissed the idea of capital controls proposed by Kuroda in the last few hours.]




My father runs a business in HK with mainland clients so he knows a bit.

Re mechanisms - going rate was 3% to get your money out of china a few months ago (not sure if thats changed now). Mechanisms are varied - a main one is overinvoicing, but there is a huge list. See below in the middle for a list

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/29/2104532/china-vs-the-so-called-art-industry/


----------



## DeepState

fraa said:


> My father runs a business in HK with mainland clients so he knows a bit.
> 
> Re mechanisms - going rate was 3% to get your money out of china a few months ago (not sure if thats changed now). Mechanisms are varied - a main one is overinvoicing, but there is a huge list. See below in the middle for a list
> 
> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/29/2104532/china-vs-the-so-called-art-industry/




Thanks for this.  Very informative.  This type of activity will be too hard to clamp down upon in sufficient time and sufficient quality to avert a capital account problem.  China is going to have to devalue further. Gong Hei Fa Cai.


----------



## notting

I quite liked the Chinese shadow banking system.  It was the biggest true free market in the world.  I actually think the Chinese authorities quite liked it too.  They pretended they didn't but they perhaps felt they could cheat the world by having no disclosure due to it's 'officially unauthorized' existence.

However, this has all turned rather ugly as China's shadow banking system became the mechanism by which individuals could funnel massive amounts of Yuan overseas without  being detected too soon.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/58228-china-fights-underground-bank-problem.html




China?
It's all bad.


----------



## systematic

notting said:


> China?
> It's all bad.




...and Roxette; always cool.


----------



## notting

Quite frankly, it's nothing short of a miracle, simply stunning numbers -



> People spent at least 312 billion yuan during the lunar New Year period,  record spending came to 31%  more than during last year's holidays, according to State controlled China UnionPay Co., which runs the national bank card network.
> 
> Travel transactions were up *42%!*
> "The tourism market expanded rapidly, driven by long-term consumption upgrades to the '*happiness economy*' and *good weather* across China,"
> 
> Tourism revenue was up 16 percent from last year, the National Tourism Administration said.
> *Three times as many people as last year went on luxury cruises*, travel website Ctrip.com said.




One reporter asked, 'How did you achieve such incredible numbers on the back of many workers not being paid their dues this year before the holidays and larg quantities of workers claiming they were not going back to the factories to live in rural areas!!!'
The Chinese finance minister said, "well, we had a meeting, decided what the best number would be to blow yours sox off and wrote it down we then released it to the world."

The reporter then held up this chart -





and the minister screamed you are an enemy of the Chinese Communist Party and shot him.


----------



## notting

In China, they keep threatening the factory workers that they will be replaced by robots if they do not work harder and for less, a funny Chinese guy posted this -



Made in China.


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> In China, they keep threatening the factory workers that they will be replaced by robots if they do not work harder and for less, a funny Chinese guy posted this -
> 
> 
> 
> Made in China.





Same in every country, robots will replace humans when they are more efficient, just part of progress.

Now what happened to the horse and cart.


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> Same in every country, robots will replace humans when they are more efficient, just part of progress.
> 
> Now what happened to the horse and cart.




Profound


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> Same in every country, robots will replace humans when they are more efficient, just part of progress.
> 
> Now what happened to the horse and cart.




The point is that in the free world, when there really are robots that can do jobs that people do, then the people are retired in as civil way as possible.  But in this instance there no robots and certainly not ones that can are replace the almost pay less jobs.  It's just a way of threatening the workers to abuse and enslave them further.


----------



## Wysiwyg

notting said:


> Profound



ROFL


----------



## DeepState

notting said:


> The point is that in the free world, when there really are robots that can do jobs that people do, then the people are retired in as civil way as possible.  But in this instance there no robots and certainly not ones that can are replace the almost pay less jobs.  It's just a way of threatening the workers to abuse and enslave them further.




I sometimes go riding with some guy who was a regional CEO of a major crop harvesting machinery manufacturer/distributor.  One of his clients was in a 3rd world country and he was wondering why they never ordered any parts that would be normal wear and tear. This was despite the harvesting capacity being less than the fields on which crops were grown.  

So over he went to meet the client he sold the equipment to a year ago.  The two harvestor units sat in clear view of the workers in the fields.  They were a threat that if any of them decided to cause trouble, it would be easy to replace much of the labour force for a time with machinery. These workers were subsistence level so they could not endure a lock-out.  Just the threat was enough to create value for the farmer by buying these 'robots' which he never wanted to use.  It kept the wages low and the workers compliant.


----------



## qldfrog

DeepState said:


> I sometimes go riding with some guy who was a regional CEO of a major crop harvesting machinery manufacturer/distributor.  One of his clients was in a 3rd world country and he was wondering why they never ordered any parts that would be normal wear and tear. This was despite the harvesting capacity being less than the fields on which crops were grown.
> 
> So over he went to meet the client he sold the equipment to a year ago.  The two harvestor units sat in clear view of the workers in the fields.  They were a threat that if any of them decided to cause trouble, it would be easy to replace much of the labour force for a time with machinery. These workers were subsistence level so they could not endure a lock-out.  Just the threat was enough to create value for the farmer by buying these 'robots' which he never wanted to use.  It kept the wages low and the workers compliant.




Trusting you, DS it must be true and it is actually terrible, especially, as you pointed ,as  these workers were subsistence level : the poorestr of the poors.
I still expect major drama when self driven vehicle will start: imagine: long haul truckies replaced by machines, it will not go smoothly


----------



## Wysiwyg

qldfrog said:


> I still expect major drama when self driven vehicle will start: imagine: long haul truckies replaced by machines, it will not go smoothly



I can say in your lifetime this will not happen. Fixed plant automation and "controlled environment" mobile automation will see continued expansion.  From wikipedia I chose these reasons that are obstacles.


Liability placed on manufacturer of device and/or software driving the vehicle.
Resistance by individuals to forfeit control of their cars.
Implementation of legal framework and establishment of government regulations for self-driving cars.
Loss of driving-related jobs. Resistance from professional drivers and unions who perceive job losses.
Ethical problems in situations where an autonomous car's software is forced during an unavoidable crash to choose between multiple harmful courses of action.
Current police and other pedestrian gestures and non-verbal cues are not adapted to autonomous driving.
Software reliability.
A car's computer could potentially be compromised, as could a communication system between cars by disrupting camera sensors, GPS jammers/spoofing.
Susceptibility of the car's navigation system to different types of weather.
Autonomous cars may require very high-quality specialised maps to operate properly. Where these maps may be out of date, they would need to be able to fall back to reasonable behaviors.
Current road infrastructure may need changes for autonomous cars to function optimally.


----------



## luutzu

Wysiwyg said:


> I can say in your lifetime this will not happen. Fixed plant automation and "controlled environment" mobile automation will see continued expansion.  From wikipedia I chose these reasons that are obstacles.
> 
> 
> Liability placed on manufacturer of device and/or software driving the vehicle.
> Resistance by individuals to forfeit control of their cars.
> Implementation of legal framework and establishment of government regulations for self-driving cars.
> Loss of driving-related jobs. Resistance from professional drivers and unions who perceive job losses.
> Ethical problems in situations where an autonomous car's software is forced during an unavoidable crash to choose between multiple harmful courses of action.
> Current police and other pedestrian gestures and non-verbal cues are not adapted to autonomous driving.
> Software reliability.
> A car's computer could potentially be compromised, as could a communication system between cars by disrupting camera sensors, GPS jammers/spoofing.
> Susceptibility of the car's navigation system to different types of weather.
> Autonomous cars may require very high-quality specialised maps to operate properly. Where these maps may be out of date, they would need to be able to fall back to reasonable behaviors.
> Current road infrastructure may need changes for autonomous cars to function optimally.




Yea, automation and robotics would only be feasible in controlled environments - for our lifetime anyway.

So a factory, a mine site. But even then it'd only be doing physically heavy lifting or micro stuff. For the light weight and cheap manufacturing, there's already robots and they go for very very cheap - the poor buggers humans they now forced into menial jobs with hunching over conveyor belts all day.

I'm all for R&D and advancing technology and all that... but a self driving car? A bloody drone delivery service? Try curing cancer or renewable energy or bringing water and food to the world or something ya rich idiots.

Most people could do reverse parking. Most would find driving relaxing or at least not rich enough to afford a car that drives itself - most kinda do that with either a chauffer or a bus or train.


----------



## Wysiwyg

luutzu said:


> Try curing cancer or renewable energy or bringing water and food to the world or something ya rich idiots.



Yes there are many issues facing the planet with the presence of us (humans) that could have technological solutions. The technological revolution is upon us so buy into weight watchers businesses as everyone gets fatter from less physical activity.


----------



## notting

> Retail sales surprisingly weakens
> 
> Retail sales, which had been a beacon of strength in China's economy, were up 10.2 per cent over the year, well below both the forecast 10.8 per cent and the December growth rate of 11.1 per cent.
> 
> Credit expansion also missed the target, although the Lunar New Year probably affected this.
> 
> On a positive note, there was evidence of a transition in the type of loans being taken out, with promising expansion in longer-term credit.[/B]




No they didn't.
Well they didn't surprise me, that's for sure.
What they put out over their retard monkey year was such obvious BS that anyone should have seen it.

Market is finally reacting in line with the reality, though along way to go!
Market makers may be starting to realize that the dictatorship is not going to do a big build stimulus because it's done that to death and even peddled it along as a zombie stuffed with Mao monopoly money for about 10 years after it was dead.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/china's-industrial-production-falls-short-for-start-of-the-year/7242938


----------



## Uncle Festivus

luutzu said:


> Try curing cancer or renewable energy or bringing water and food to the world or something ya rich idiots.




Points 1 & 2 are happening, dunno bout the 3rd....



Wysiwyg said:


> Yes there are many issues facing the planet with the presence of us (humans) that could have technological solutions. The technological revolution is upon us so buy into weight watchers businesses as everyone gets fatter from less physical activity.




Not quite, they will have an injection for that soon? Or we could all eat Queen Garnet plums?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-14/antioxidant-rich-plum-to-fight-obesity/6094914

As for China, and the rest of the world generally, they are still in Central Bank dependent mode, hoping that even more rhetoric & 'stimulus' will be unleashed on a Central Bank rhetoric & 'stimulus' fatigued world? When will they realise that CB'ers are just glorified economists without any clue and almost always wrong!

Crash is imminent.....only blind faith in CB's and fiat is in the way.


----------



## notting

> the most extreme step yet by policy makers to prevent speculative bets against the Chinese currency, after state-run banks repeatedly intervened to support the yuan and the government intensified a crackdown on capital outflows.
> 
> A Tobin tax would complicate plans by China to create an international reserve currency and could undermine the leadership's pledge to increase the role of market forces in the world's second-largest economy.




No freedom here folks. We will do what ever we want despite our pledges.

China shall continue to buy trillions of $$ worth of international infrastructure, property, farms, assets etc.  With China's artificially now massively overvalued monopoly money, but of course China does not want any one else betting against their currency and China's dictatorship will not let it cost China anything to protect.  Then the dictatorship will let it fall by stealth with onlty the Chinese dictators capable of making money out of that too.  
What marvelous global citizens they are


----------



## notting

Small Chinese insurance company pulls 700 Billion Yaun out of thin air to bid for US hotel chain.
Founded in 2004 with capital of only 60 million US$ and a narrow focus on car insurance, Anbang has in the past year miraculously transformed itself into one of the biggest Chinese firms in the industry.
Anbang’s expansion is put down to connections of its chairman, Wu Xiaohui, who is married to the grand-daughter of Deng Xiaoping, China’s deceased but still revered leader!



> As for Anbang itself: It’s a relatively minor Chinese insurance company, which has recently also branched into financial services. Bruce Einhorn writes in Businessweek that, “in a market dominated by big, state-owned insurers, Anbang until recently was an extremely minor player. At the end of 2013, its share of life-insurance premiums was 0.1 per cent.” It has recently experienced a lot of growth, but still only has 3.6 per cent market share in China. According to its English language website, Anbang has assets of 700 billion yuan (about $US114 billion).
> 
> The question that remains unanswered is how Anbang is going to pay for its new property. There’s no word in reports on the deal about financing. Back in July, Andrew Collier, managing director at Orient Capital Research floated the idea that loans from the Chinese shadow banking sector — where a lot of the financing for foreign deals is coming from — could cripple the international property markets if they started going bad.




Shadow banking is now code for, 'we just print the money and buy foreign assets.  It's a new kind of expansion for free, so to speak.'  We can't believe how stupid the world is.

Hence as Premier Li stated today, "It's impossible for China not to meet it's guidance."  Understand?


----------



## notting

There are still no laws  in China when it comes to the Chinese Communist Party doing what ever it wants.

I just hope the world wakes up soon to the fact  that China is now using its now inflated currency to be quietly printing bucket loads of yuan amidst its shadow banking system and then funneling it though international banking system under the name of Chinese companies that have miraculously achieved huge sizes and are buying up international infrastructure, farming assets, property and land and and even pharmaceutical assets with what is nothing more than the equivalent of monopoly money.

It's hard for us to believe and here is another current example of Chinese utter lawlessness -

https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/03/26/amnesty-condemns-detentions-linked-to-xi-letter/


----------



## notting

China props up it's over printed worthless currency whilst using it to buy international assets with what is in reality paper backed by nothing.

Heres the hedge against the cost of artificially holding up the currency by selling treasuries -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/great-leap-upward-behind-china-s-100-billion-shopping-spree


----------



## notting

China's crackdown on corruption takes an interesting turn - 



> State media appeared to black out the news. But many on microblogging network Sina Weibo and mobile chat network Wechat were discussing the topic on Monday morning, sharing Chinese translations of details of the story, including information on Mr Deng.
> 
> A hashtag created on the topic quickly trended.
> 
> Checks by the BBC found that by the end of the day many of those posts had disappeared, with at least 481 discussions deleted from the hashtag's Weibo topic page, and other posts shared on Wechat also deleted.
> 
> Besides Mr Deng, several other individuals among China's elite were also named in the papers.
> 
> They include Li Xiaolin, the daughter of former premier Li Peng, and Jasmine Li, the granddaughter of former high-ranking official Jia Qinglin.
> 
> Li Xiaolin owned an offshore company, Cofic Investments Ltd, incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, while Jasmine Li received an offshore company as a teenager, ICIJ said.




Unofficial policy -  It's corrupt for the the people to talk about proof of corruption in the dictatorship.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> China's crackdown on corruption takes an interesting turn -
> 
> 
> 
> Unofficial policy -  It's corrupt for the the people to talk about proof of corruption in the dictatorship.




Especially after his highness was incarcerating all the corrupt opposition, err i mean officials...then, to top it all off, state media publishes an open letter asking for him to resign...heads still rolling over that one!



> China continues severe crackdown over letter demanding President Xi Jinping's resignation






> 'Not fit to lead': letter attacking Xi Jinping sparks witch-hunt in Beijing




I seem to recall you though he might be a good bloke?


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> I seem to recall you though he might be a good bloke?




He has shut own some of the worst labor and 're-education' camps 
So there are signs that he escaped the inbred Han psychopath genetic structure that the rest of them have.


----------



## CanOz

This seems the only hope for Chinese companies. IF they can learn how to manage businesses, from the PE crowd, maybe they have a hope of producing quality products at competitive prices.

China's Family Businesses Sell Out to Private Equity


----------



## notting

Peddling like crazy to stay afloat -



> Credit continues to bulge. Chinese banks made 1.37 trillion yuan ($211.23 billion) in new local-currency loans in March, according to Reuters. The news agency also noted that social financing rose to 2.34 trillion yuan ($360.78 billion) in March from 780.2 billion yuan in February as the country's central bank continues to stimulate the economy and aid its slowing growth.
> 
> "It's a warning sign because it shows how much more credit is needed to stop a decline," Soros said, commenting on the March credit data.


----------



## notting

Lying, thieving, cheating little f@#kers 



> NAB will follow its peers in tightening lending conditions for Chinese buyers, a move that could delay or derail dozens of impending settlements according to one mortgage broker.
> 
> The new rules, to come into effect on May 14, will see NAB only lend foreign buyers 60 per cent of a property's value, down from 70 per cent previously.
> 
> At the same time the bank will recognise just 60 per cent of income earned offshore, due to fears many Chinese buyers have been inflating their earnings in an effort to borrow more money.
> 
> "That will mean most Chinese buyers will only be able to borrow around $200,000," said one mortgage broker who was told about the changes by NAB.
> 
> The broker, who asked not to be named, said 40 of her clients were due to settle on newly built apartments over the next six weeks and these purchases were now in doubt.




China also trying to kill global steel production so they can wage war and other countries have no capacity to build steel machines to combat them -



> Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and US President Barack Obama have discussed the global glut in steel supply, which many blame on chronic over-capacity at Chinese producers.
> 
> China's steel production hit a record high earlier this year as rising prices, and profits, encouraged mills that had been shut or suspended to resume output.
> 
> In a phone call late yesterday, the two leaders "discussed the need to work together to address the global glut in steel", the White House said in a statement.
> 
> China, the world's top steel producer and exporter, is also the fifth-largest importer of steel, buying an equivalent of 13.57 million tonnes of crude steel last year.
> 
> Last month, China and other major steel producers failed to agree on measures to tackle the overcapacity crisis, prompting the US, European Union and others to call for urgent action.
> 
> China plans to shed 100-150 million tonnes of domestic crude steel capacity in the next five years in a bid to help tackle huge capacity overhangs that have saddled domestic firms with losses and debts.
> 
> Turnbull said he had raised the issue with top Chinese officials and that while he welcomed their commitment, more than "strong intentions" were needed.
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...es-wall-st-20160511-got2pi.html#ixzz48PfX6R3K
> Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> Lying, thieving, cheating little f@#kers
> 
> 
> 
> China also trying to kill global steel production so they can wage war and other countries have no capacity to build steel machines to combat them -




If Australia don't like steel flooding the market... stop flooding the market with cheap ore. 
Simple maths.


----------



## skc

luutzu said:


> If Australia don't like steel flooding the market... stop flooding the market with cheap ore.
> Simple maths.




Not really. The steel makers are making a loss. The iron ore miners are still making profits.

Iron ore doesn't drive steel making. Steel making demands iron ore. You've got the wrong way round.


----------



## luutzu

skc said:


> Not really. The steel makers are making a loss. The iron ore miners are still making profits.
> 
> Iron ore doesn't drive steel making. Steel making demands iron ore. You've got the wrong way round.




Wouldn't it go both ways?

Demand slags off so miners increase supply to reduce price, put small competitors out of business, lower input costs to steel makers while increasing their own market share; With lower costs steel makers/buyer would demand more than they would have.

So more efficient miners still make profit as you say, with steelers either breaking even or not lost as much after Chinese gov't lending a hand...


----------



## notting

> China newspaper chiefs red-faced after falling for hoax report in The Onion that named North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as 'sexiest man alive' (and commemorating title in 55-page photo special)
> 
> *  People's Daily mistakes comedy website for genuine news provider
> The paper runs a 55-page photo special in tribute to mystery-shrouded Kim
> Joins growing list of irony-starved newspapers fooled by The Onion*
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...aper-Kim-Jong-sexiest-man-alive-headline.html



*
China's favorite puppet son has been lourded to the people once more.  But this time they are happy to run with this all conquering truth.*




*Suck it up* *SLOB BOY*



Please please please now enter *China's grand champion into the UFC*


----------



## notting

Since it's Friday -


----------



## notting

*Told you the lying evil little f*#$ers where buying all out stuff with funny money!!*



> Foreign real estate buyers have paid about $200 each for forged bank income and spending statements used in mortgage applications,  mortgage industry sources said.
> 
> AFR Weekend has obtained a copy of a recent loan application in *Chinese and English that bilingual lending experts said was a "ludicrously obvious forgery" for a $960,000 loan to purchase a $1.06 million Sydney apartment.*
> 
> Nervous lenders are stopping lending to overseas' borrowers because of growing evidence that thousands of similar loan applications are being processed, or could have been approved and processed.
> 
> "This is huge," said Ken Sayer, chief executive of Mortgage House, a non-bank lender, about the potential size of real estate fraud.* "It is much bigger than everyone is making it out to be. The numbers could be astronomical."*
> 
> Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resi...&promote_channel=social_twitter#ixzz48j3y3kjh




Did we just sell them a port in Darwin.  :silly: There just isn't an emoticon stupid enough for it.



> *Australia has 'nothing to fear' says Chinese Government *



  Oh well great that's reassuring!  Well at least the Chinese haven't called us old friends and showered us with  gifts.  They normally do that before an invasion.

Australia should change its name to - Tardland


----------



## CanOz

Headline news:



> 12:59(CN) China said to upgrade manufacturing sector through major projects - financial press (related EEM FXI PGJ USD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com




What the party is thinking: 







> By upgrading our manufacturing, including higher tech automation, we'll be able to compete with better labor utilization and higher quality products




What the local party members think: 







> googie goodie, another major investment push where i can get my mates to borrow more money, backed by government initiatives/grants, to invest in businesses that appear legit, but are just a big facade for my commission scheme.


----------



## notting

Too much thinking not enough free markets!
Dictatorships find it hard to get!!

Looks like another high speed rail line to the ghost city for the mayor and his family.


----------



## notting

> A worrying new report from SociÃ©tÃ© GÃ©nÃ©rale called Restructuring China Inc argues that as China sets about restructuring its state-owned enterprises, which are the biggest borrowers in the economy, *"it will also become more apparent that Chinese banks need to be rescued."*
> 
> And this rescue will be extremely expensive. "We estimate that the total losses in the banking sector could reach *8 trillion yuan*, equivalent to more than 60 per cent of commercial banks' capital, 50 per cent of fiscal revenues and 12 per cent of GDP."
> 
> The report argues Beijing is unlikely to move quickly to restructure state-owned enterprises and banks because that would risk an economic hard landing, with massive corporate defaults and a big drop in output. "A hard landing threatens social stability, and for this obvious reason, Chinese policy-makers have opted for a slow and gradual process."
> 
> But, the report argues that *Beijing's plans to move to slowly restructure zombie state-owned companies could lead to an even bigger build-up in problem loans which will cause the eventual restructuring bill to balloon.*
> 
> The report argues that Beijing's prevarication is causing jitters in the China's massive corporate bond market, as a wave of defaults at state-owned companies have pushed up the borrowing costs of riskier companies, and caused investors to question the asset quality of the listed banks.




*Dha* wonder what da asset quality of listed banks is like? :shake:


----------



## notting

AMP also wakes up to the fact that the Chinese are stealing our property.



> 12:04pm: AMP will announce that it is banning mortgage lending to most non-resident borrowers, highlighting growing lender nerves about possible fraud and money laundering.
> 
> The nation's largest financial services group is also imposing tough new restrictions on the currencies used to repay mortgages, requiring up to 50 per cent deposits on foreign lenders and announcing more restrictions on overseas income and expenses.
> 
> AMP is blaming the tough policy on "changes to the market" without specifying their nature or extent.
> 
> "Our standards are continually reviewed with market developments to ensure we remain a prudent and responsible lender. Our criteria for overseas borrowers has recently been reviewed in line with this objective," AMP said in a statement.
> 
> But it follows complaints from other major lenders about widespread fraudulent applications and fears of money laundering.
> 
> "Some of the documentation  being used by foreign investor and local residents using foreign documentation to support a loan application (in Australia) now appears to be suspect," said Martin North, principal of Digital Finance Analytics, a consultancy to major financial institutions.
> 
> The Australian Financial Review recently revealed overseas mortgage applications using forged income, employment and asset statements on forged Bank of China letterhead.
> 
> "The real risk is that it could be part of more organised money laundering operations where overseas players use local real estate agents, brokers and lawyers to make purchases with dodgy funds," Mr North said.




From my dealings with the Chinese I have noticed this weird interest in Tasmania.
I think they see it as something that is gold with respect to resources like forests, farmland, water etc.
They figure they could easily anex it.

Question.  Why would you build the biggest buddhist temple in the southern hemisphere in Tasmania??
Where is the demand?
Wonder what kind of munitions they are hiding in the statues.
Or perhaps they are just building a comfortable place to stay and rule from when they come!!!!!!!!!!




Look at all the red flags in Chinese?  WTF.  This is sleepy old Tasmania.




Australia wouldn't know if it's ars was on fire.


----------



## CanOz

China’s Factory to the World Is in a Race to Survive

The scale of this boggles the mind....how can this ever end well?

More importantly how to play it? How much of this is already priced into the mainland banks? What about ASX plays to the exposure?


----------



## CanOz

Another Steel maker in trouble....



> 11:36(CN) China Dongbei Special Steel to miss payment on June 6th - financial press**Note on Apr 26th: (CN) China Dongbei Special Steel uncertain on CNY700M notes payments due May 5th more... (related FXI IYM) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Another Steel maker in trouble....




The workers in China are being harassed by police if they speak to western journalists about their unemployment and wages owed not being paid.
*China is in trouble.*


----------



## Wysiwyg

Must be tough on makers with the apparent "glut" of steel on the world market. Wondering if the iron ore price will test the lows again.


----------



## CanOz

China's Hidden Unemployment Rate


----------



## notting

Wysiwyg said:


> Must be tough on makers with the apparent "glut" of steel on the world market. Wondering if the iron ore price will test the lows again.




Just with respect to this.  
The fact that the Dictators went to fairly extreme lengths to curb speculation on the IO price in China that took it from 39 to 70 odd indicates to me that they are going to use stimulus to keep things as stable as they can.



> China demand may surprise to the upside," Citi analysts said, adding that the government will probably maintain short-term stimulus to prop up the economy. "We remain bearish on medium-term iron ore prices, and expect the seaborne market to spend a longer time finding lows."
> 
> After three years of sliding prices, iron ore has advanced in 2016 as China's steel output rose to a record and policy makers said they'd support economic growth, catching many analysts off guard who were forecasting a fourth year of losses. The demand revival spurred a speculative rally that boosted prices in the three months to April.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> Just with respect to this.
> The fact that the Dictators went to fairly extreme lengths to curb speculation on the IO price in China that took it from 39 to 70 odd indicates to me that they are going to use stimulus to keep things as stable as they can.






> 0:05CitiGroup raises short-term price forecasts for Iron Ore due to higher China demand- Sees 2016 at $49/ton and 2017 at 42/ton- 2019 seen at $38/ton and 2020 at $40/ton (related 6210.HK BBL BHP BHP.AU BLT.UK RIO RIO.AU RIO.OLD RIO.UK RTP.OLD VALE VALE3.BR VALE5.BR) - Source TradeTheNews.com




Yeah, seems it not quite the time to put the shorts on, but there will come a time


----------



## Gringotts Bank

The Chinese game goes like this:

Exploit the masses, massively degrade the environment and enforce your will with the backing of the Party.  Keep the masses ignorant of their situation through propaganda ("wealth for all"), internet blockages and policing.  Then, when you have enough blood money, start buying up property in first world countries.  Use whatever dirty tricks you can to get your money offshore.  

It's just like the wealthy Russians, the way they bought up Chelsea and Knightsbridge in London.  Now... how do you get rich in 2nd and 3rd world nations?  You cheat and you coerce.  We might as well be inviting drug barons from South America to peruse our available properties.


----------



## notting

China always uses distractions whilst it does it's sneaky dirty business.
This time Brexit is being used to devalue the Yaun by stealth.


----------



## CanOz

How is it stealth? I get the fix every day



> 11:16USD/CNY *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.6528 V 6.6375 PRIOR (lowest setting since Dec 2010, 2nd consecutive multi-year low)- Prior close 6.6585 (related CNY/USD CYB USD/CNY) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> How is it stealth? I get the fix every day




Well it's fixed for a start!


----------



## CanOz

trying to find some details on this...



> 16:11(CN) China revises GDP for 2012 and 2013 due to methodology- Raises 2012 GDP from 7.7% to 7.9%- Raises 2013 GDP from 7.7% to 7.8%- Maintains 2014 GDP more... (related CNY/USD CYB EUR/CNY FXI USD/CNY) - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## notting

China does nothing for the world



> More than 10 million Android devices around the world have been infected with malware linked to China, according to a CNET report.
> 
> CNET, citing an analysis from cybersecurity software maker Check Point, wrote that the "HummingBad" malware was developed by a team linked to an otherwise legitimate Beijing-based firm called Yingmob.


----------



## notting

A similar opinion -



> With all eyes on big dollar and sterling, Roubini Global Economics notes that nobody is watching renminbi.
> 
> Largely ignored by global investors, CNY has weakened against USD and (more modestly) against its three baskets. The sharper move, including this week's fixing below 6.60, has raised questions about the commitment of policy makers to "stable" CNY. We doubt this depreciation will help support growth/trade, but it will likely contribute to weaker [emerging markets] FX


----------



## CanOz

A very local problem in China is being exported at an alarming rate.

Whats worse than junk bonds, Chinese junk! Now that spells potential contagion


----------



## CanOz

A couple things I came across today, try and find the bloomberg article on the bank in northern China...it's scary. 

I was on a bike ride with my son this morning and I went through the new mall that opened up over a year ago across the lake from us...it's a ghost mall! I'll try and get back there today for some photos....


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> A couple things I came across today, try and find the bloomberg article on the bank in northern China...it's scary.




Is this the one? Article posted earlier on the ForexLive news feed:

http://news.forexlive.com/!/chinas-best-bank-called-mirage-of-shadow-lending-20160823

Bloomberg link in the article.


----------



## CanOz

That's it captain! Thanks for posting!!! Scary stuff....makes me sick to my stomach. This whole economy is toxic, the business culture is toxic....just the worst waste of resources I'm sure the planet will ever witness.


----------



## qldfrog

CanOz said:


> A couple things I came across today, try and find the bloomberg article on the bank in northern China...it's scary.
> 
> I was on a bike ride with my son this morning and I went through the new mall that opened up over a year ago across the lake from us...it's a ghost mall! I'll try and get back there today for some photos....



in China or in Oz?


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> in China or in Oz?




China, near Shanghai


----------



## Tyler Durden

Looking forward to the pics. Always interested in 'street level' views rather than relying on media which can be beat up at times.


----------



## JessaFrance

China is an economic paradox for sure. China boosted such property markets as Canada and Australia or New Zealand. Vancouver is in chaos because of Chinese property investors. Canada is the fifth most popular country with Chinese property investors who are interested in purchasing condos for their children near universities. As a result, single-detached homes first move further into luxury budget territory leaving first-time buyers with funds enough for a condo and now we see what is going on.


----------



## notting

*China always does it's dirty work when the world is distracted by other events.*

This time they put out some more realistic figures on what's really happening to their economy whilst the US election circus has everyone wondering what the fuc4 is wrong with Americans!

Note that they have slyly allowed the Yuan to depreciate against the world basket of currencies about 6% over the year



> China's September exports fell 10 percent from a year earlier, far worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly shrank after picking up in August, suggesting signs of steadying in the world's second-largest economy may be short-lived.


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> *China always does it's dirty work when the world is distracted by other events.*
> 
> This time they put out some more realistic figures on what's really happening to their economy whilst the US election circus has everyone wondering what the fuc4 is wrong with Americans!
> 
> Note that they have slyly allowed the Yuan to depreciate against the world basket of currencies about 6% over the year




Certainly had an impact on the markets....


----------



## notting

This is how you lose your country, democracy and human rights.
These politicians should be jailed by us.
They are traitors, deserter and cowards  

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-minister-julie-bishops-links-to-chinese-political-donors-20160823-gqzauy.html


----------



## CanOz

notting said:


> This is how you lose your country, democracy and human rights.
> These politicians should be jailed by us.
> They are traitors, deserter and cowards
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-minister-julie-bishops-links-to-chinese-political-donors-20160823-gqzauy.html




Agree, foreign donations of any kind, are only to influence policy and nothing more, Chinese or otherwise. Business and Unions are bad enough really...


----------



## qldfrog

notting said:


> This is how you lose your country, democracy and human rights.
> These politicians should be jailed by us.
> They are traitors, deserter and cowards
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-minister-julie-bishops-links-to-chinese-political-donors-20160823-gqzauy.html




agree


----------



## notting

China always does it's dirty work when the world is looking the other way.

*Whilst all eyes are on US elections in 30 hours China tightens its State controlled grip over Hong Kong by banning independent legislators and brutally bashing 1000s of protestors in the streets*


----------



## notting

How to raise people out of poverty headlines -


----------



## notting

More realistic -


----------



## notting

No longer a voice in the wilderness am I.

Hardly the best of company, but it's a start -


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> No longer a voice in the wilderness am I.
> 
> Hardly the best of company, but it's a start -





Fun times ahead. 

But is Trump as smart as the Chinese when it comes to business?


----------



## notting

China’s 'extraordinary leverage' tops Bank of England’s growing list of concerns



> China's burgeoning debt levels and rapid rate of credit expansion are singled out as significant red flags, with the report noting a 100 percentage point spike in the country's non-financial sector debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) since the 2008 financial crisis. The ratio currently stands at around 260 percent of GDP.
> 
> "This is extraordinary leverage for an advanced, let alone, an emerging economy," the BOE Governor Mark Carney said at a press conference to launch the report.
> 
> The "near-record" pace of net capital outflows from China during the third quarter and a 3 percent depreciation in the Chinese renminbi against the U.S. dollar since the publication of the BOE's July report were also highlighted as reasons for concern.




Just sayen


----------



## skc

notting said:


> No longer a voice in the wilderness am I.
> 
> Hardly the best of company, but it's a start -





Did Trump go skiing and got sunburn or something?!


----------



## notting

Apple has been bending over backwards to comply with Chinese regulators’ demands. Apple has agreed to China’s security checks, moved local user data onto China-based servers, and disabled a news app. Like other foreign companies, Apple views its capitulation to Chinese authorities merely as the price of market access. For a while, the return seemed justify the price tag””sales in China accounted for more than half the company’s growth for several quarters.

But that honeymoon is turning sour. The Chinese government shut down the iBooks store and iTunes Movies. It rejected Apple’s right to trademark the name “iPhone” in China. Apple total sales in China plunged 33 percent in the most recent quarter of 2016, due to stiff competition from home-grown brands such as Xiaomi.



> The Chinese Cheating Playbook
> 
> The Chinese government has paid lip service to protecting foreign companies’ intellectual property rights. Its actions show it follows a different playbook.
> 
> Step 1. Entice foreign companies to China with the allure of a giant consumer market, while forcing foreign companies to share their intellectual properties with a selected few large Chinese companies (so-called “national team”) through ruinous laws and regulations.
> 
> For example, according to a Harvard Business Review analysis, “Since 2006 the Chinese government has been implementing new policies that seek to appropriate technology from foreign multinationals in several technology-based industries, such as air transportation, power generation, high-speed rail, information technology, and now possibly electric automobiles. These rules limit investment by foreign companies as well as their access to China’s markets, stipulate a high degree of local content in equipment produced in the country, and force the transfer of proprietary technologies from foreign companies to their joint ventures with China’s state-owned enterprises.”
> 
> In 2015, China passed a new cyber-security law, which requires any telecom and Internet companies operating in China to provide Chinese law enforcement with assistance such as decrypting user data when deemed necessary to fight against terrorism. Despite objections from U.S. and European trade groups, the law became effective January 1.
> 
> Step 2. Punish foreign competitors to aid domestic companies. For example, Qualcomm, a U.S. technology company, had to pay the Chinese government $975 million to settle an anti-monopoly charge in 2015. In addition to the fine, Qualcomm had to “agree” to offer licenses to some of its cutting-edge technology at a sharp discount to what it charges companies elsewhere.
> 
> Step 3. Replace foreign goods and services in key industries with homegrown products and services after Chinese companies obtain the technical know-how. China just announced it has built a supercomputer that performs five times faster than a comparable U.S. one, with 100 percent made-in-China processor chips. Chinese leader Xi Jinping pronounced a goal to replace foreign technology in key strategic areas with homegrown ones by 2020.
> 
> Step 4. Shut foreign competitors out of strategic sectors. For example, Facebook is completely blocked in China despite CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s persistent charm offensive””Zuckerberg learned to speak Chinese and jogged through Tiananmen Square without a mask in the midst of suffocating air pollution.


----------



## OmegaTrader

So when and where do I go short?


----------



## notting

Trump appoints someone with who 'gets it' to head the White House National Trade Council, - Peter Navarro.
Hopefully a lot of people will watch the film he made to start with


----------



## galumay

The lunatics really taking over the asylum now. The trumpocalypse will be spectacular if nothing else.

Circle the carts and load the guns.


----------



## OmegaTrader

galumay said:


> The lunatics really taking over the asylum now. The trumpocalypse will be spectacular if nothing else.
> 
> Circle the carts and load the guns.




Very interesting letter, from someone living in China

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-will-probably-implode-16088

Ok lets say that you are right and a catlyst comes along to cause crash....


*How do I profit from it??*
In essence short any assets linked to Chinese economies success
*
Direct approach*
Go short using OTC derivatives or direct market if you can...

Although the Chinese government may manipulate this,

as they have recently

short china stocks, market index, put options etc etc

Currency will also be a play to make

*Indirect Approach*
Short firms and industries related to china

Short the negative flow on effects of the crash

Will global equity markets fall initially from the flow on effects??

Or will some competitor countries do even better with China's crash?? 

Interested to see the bears opinions on plays to make

Cheers


----------



## notting

_I'v been saying this for years -
"China wants its currency to become an international currency, but nobody knows its value. The only effective taxation going on here in China is [protectionist] for imports. The taxation system of businesses and income tax is completely broken and non-functional. There is no transparency in the financial system here. That is quite different from that of the Euro or the dollar. The fact is, the government is printing money like crazy here."
Why do our retarded governments let them buy our businesses and real estate with monopoly money the Chinese just print it, invent a business name and a history of the business and go buy a farm in Australia!_


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> _I'v been saying this for years -
> "China wants its currency to become an international currency, but nobody knows its value. The only effective taxation going on here in China is [protectionist] for imports. The taxation system of businesses and income tax is completely broken and non-functional. There is no transparency in the financial system here. That is quite different from that of the Euro or the dollar. The fact is, the government is printing money like crazy here."
> Why do our retarded governments let them buy our businesses and real estate with monopoly money the Chinese just print it, invent a business name and a history of the business and go buy a farm in Australia!_







First  You believe in authority and that everything is perfect, an innocent  bliss

Second You realise the world is corrupt but you still believe that there is order

Then  The world is bad and corrupt and there is going to be a crash

Then You realise that the truth is a combination of both and by understanding this you realise that 
*Opportunities arise out of this irrationality, *

It is not right, you cannot change it, it does not make sense 


but it is part of human nature and the human condition
*
What is the point in complaining if you are not going to benefit from it?*

Chicken little chicken little, the sky is falling

You stuck in world is bad and corrupt phase..

*Profit from it if you can,* human nature has not changed throughout history 

Complaining will not get anybody anywhere

my twocents


----------



## CanOz

That letter was pretty much the way I saw it when lived there as well. The biggest single problem the ccp has is the deep rooted culturally engrained corruption. It's just the way they do business and its through every fibre of daily life....the worst of Chinese culture is really toxic.


----------



## notting

CCP Peddling hard to hide the collapse - Merry Christmas for the Han Psychopaths.- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...a-outflows-rising-in-both-yuan-payments-forex


----------



## Wysiwyg

The Trump oligarchy will be orchestrating the markets to suit their own ideals. Leveraging in the right places to grow their empire as the smarter empires do. The supreme capitalist is hard at work.


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> CCP Peddling hard to hide the collapse - Merry Christmas for the Han Psychopaths.- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...a-outflows-rising-in-both-yuan-payments-forex





notting said:


> CCP Peddling hard to hide the collapse - Merry Christmas for the Han Psychopaths.- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...a-outflows-rising-in-both-yuan-payments-forex











I don't why you that China so much...

If you keep saying it will crash eventually you will be correct.
But they have a lot of leavers that other countries cannot use.

I wonder whether they are as bad as the media keep saying or whether all societies around the world as as bad as each other, everybody is self interested,

Just variations of grey.

Wasn't it the US banking system that caused the GFC and forced our government to use stimulus.
That forced Australia's reserve bank to print more money. 
It accelerated Australia's budget deficit.
Goldman didn't help us, local councils and pension funds lost money because of their recklessness.
What happens, the lawyers  get 50-75% of the money lost in cases after Goldman denies all wrongdoing and loses the case.

Isn't it US companies that are the biggest abusers our taxation system with offshore companies.
Google Chevron.....
Forcing the burden onto personal income tax.

China was the one who helped us with demand and business during the GFC not the US.

China provides us with cheap goods and technology that improve standard of living.


----------



## notting

OmegaTrader said:


> But they have a lot of leavers that other countries cannot use.




Indeed and how -

How The Chinese Communist Party secretly operates it’s economy pretending it is improving standards making fake reports of token arrests when someone escapes!!!




OmegaTrader said:


> China provides us with cheap goods and technology that improve standard of living.




Oh, oh, yes, cheap goods *and services* -

*Chinese Sex slaves in Australia*
If any one saw ABCs story on the Chinese sex slave syndicates it gives you an idea of what is *normal for powerful Chinese*. We see this as unthinkable, horrific and extreme. For them it's business!! They have not sense of human rights.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/lega...nal-sex-trafficking-rings-20111009-1lfxs.html

Merry Christmas -





Macro View
Taking a Macro View. What people don't seem to be noticing about this whole ongoing GFC is China. The roll it played to bring this all about. They kept their currency and labour costs so artificially low by using slave labour and currency manipulation to monopolized global manufacturing and cause much of the stress on countries who continued to try to play fair.
The real danger from this was that companies in countries playing by the rules would go bust or China would try to take them all over and rule the world! But most have managed to stay afloat and recapitalize. The world has been saved even though the crisis still appears to be in play.
The US has taken the first sensible step by printing money to counter what China has done for around 40 years by levelling the currency playing field, somewhat, as soon as Chinas labour costs became a little more realistic. This will counter some of the currency cheating China has been doing ( that no one will talk about openly) and allow liquidity for corporate activity when banks become confident to lend again.


The Chinese Communist Party is dropping the equivalent of 12 Hiroshima atomic bombs on it's own citizens every year and rising but in a way that doesn't get reported in the media nearly enough. - What kind of name would you give to that?  That's how many die from pollution related illnesses due to the Chinese Communist Party Profiteering as the expense of the environment of it's Poeple.  The Communist Party members have filtered air conditioning and property theyh can escape to all over the world. I'd say that's worse than collapse?!  (And that's just one issue)


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> Indeed and how -
> 
> How The Chinese Communist Party secretly operates it’s economy pretending it is improving standards making fake reports of token arrests when someone escapes!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, oh, yes, cheap goods *and services* -
> 
> *Chinese Sex slaves in Australia*
> If any one saw ABCs story on the Chinese sex slave syndicates it gives you an idea of what is *normal for powerful Chinese*. We see this as unthinkable, horrific and extreme. For them it's business!! They have not sense of human rights.
> http://www.smh.com.au/national/lega...nal-sex-trafficking-rings-20111009-1lfxs.html
> 
> Merry Christmas -
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Macro View
> Taking a Macro View. What people don't seem to be noticing about this whole ongoing GFC is China. The roll it played to bring this all about. They kept their currency and labour costs so artificially low by using slave labour and currency manipulation to monopolized global manufacturing and cause much of the stress on countries who continued to try to play fair.
> The real danger from this was that companies in countries playing by the rules would go bust or China would try to take them all over and rule the world! But most have managed to stay afloat and recapitalize. The world has been saved even though the crisis still appears to be in play.
> The US has taken the first sensible step by printing money to counter what China has done for around 40 years by levelling the currency playing field, somewhat, as soon as Chinas labour costs became a little more realistic. This will counter some of the currency cheating China has been doing ( that no one will talk about openly) and allow liquidity for corporate activity when banks become confident to lend again.
> 
> 
> The Chinese Communist Party is dropping the equivalent of 12 Hiroshima atomic bombs on it's own citizens every year and rising but in a way that doesn't get reported in the media nearly enough. - What kind of name would you give to that?  That's how many die from pollution related illnesses due to the Chinese Communist Party Profiteering as the expense of the environment of it's Poeple.  The Communist Party members have filtered air conditioning and property theyh can escape to all over the world. I'd say that's worse than collapse?!  (And that's just one issue)






I will ask you this?

Is the computer you are using made in China?
Are the parts of your car made in china?
Is the food that you buy from takeaways/restaurants made in china?
Are the metals and ores of the resource stocks you own sold to china?


Oh no, does that mean you have blood of your hands?????
Therefore you are complicit in china's crimes because your purchase is what drives the alleged actions outlined.




China is what pulled Australia through the GFC. 

Not the US, not Europe, not democracy or politicians borrowing more debt or printing money.

Almost everybody is corrupt, almost everybody is self interested.

That is the first rule of fiance and human nature.

People get abused in Syria, Zimbabwe, Congo....
All around the world.
That is the reality. 



The Communist Party members have filtered air conditioning and property theyh can escape to all over the world. I'd say that's worse than collapse?! (And that's just one issue)
[/QUOTE]

A collapse is a fall in assets prices caused by a macro economic event.

That is something I can profit from .

That is is something that I predicted/semi predicted.

It is a thesis, an idea that leads to decisions which are profitable 

That is something that I invested/ traded assets in strategically.

Complain and beating china doesn't help me or the chinese people.

It is just complaining eternally and saying I told you so when something bad happens.

It's just plain depressing and fruitless.

Now if you said well xyz therefore I think chinese equities will go down or global equities will go down or chinese currency will go down then sure that would be an international market debate.

Not china is bad, they abuse people rhetoric everyday  which is not directly related to any tangible outcome or investment decision.

my two cents


----------



## notting

WOW.  You're still trying to justify the psychopathic Chinese Communist Party after all that.

Trying to water it down and say we on this forum or in the west are the same.
That's right out of of their sick Chinese propaganda playbook - *force corruption on everyone so the Chinese Communist Party can't be held accountable, and give them justification for being able to arrest and torture anyone in China when it suits the Chinese Communist Party to enforce it's crushing power over the Chinese people and the world.*
I will address all that, but for now got better things to do than debate with someone who severely overestimates the interest in his mundane insights and limited abilities.


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> WOW.  You're still trying to justify the psychopathic Chinese Communist Party after all that.
> 
> Trying to water it down and say we on this forum or in the west are the same.
> That's right out of of their sick Chinese propaganda playbook - *force corruption on everyone so the Chinese Communist Party can't be held accountable, and give them justification for being able to arrest and torture anyone in China when it suits the Chinese Communist Party to enforce it's crushing power over the Chinese people and the world.*
> I will address all that, but for now got better things to do than debate with someone who severely overestimates the interest in his mundane insights and limited abilities.





When you can't win the ball fairly you attack the man.

I have won the ball of you fair and square.

You buy chinese goods but yet you say the chinese are the corrupt ones...


You can't answer that one, so you attack me.

Where are your clothes made
Your shoes
Your furniture
Your TV

You know that if you admit to buying chinese goods then you have lost the game.

Back to you example someone has to use the girls kept as slaves.

Maybe australians ????

I am not here to debate morality, this is an international market, not political ideology forum

I am here to make money from predictions. A crash means short as simple as that.

The rest is gobbledygook 

Saying someones  their ideology is bad does not help anyone in trading or making money.


----------



## notting

Beijing and other cities across northern and central China were shrouded in thick smog Monday, prompting authorities to delay dozens of flights and close highways.

The Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau extended an "orange alert" for heavy air pollution for three more days. Beijing's smog had initially been forecast to lift by Monday.

The "orange alert" is the third level, preceding a "red alert," in China's four-tiered warning system. On Sunday, 25 cities in China issued "red alerts" for smog, which triggers orders to close factories, schools and construction sites.

Air pollution readings in northern Chinese cities were many times above the World Health Organization-designated safe level of 25 micrograms per cubic meter of PM 2.5, the tiny, toxic particles that damage lung tissue. The readings exceeded 400 by Monday afternoon in several cities in the northern province of Hebei.

Expressways in Shijiazhuang, Hebei's capital, and more than a half-dozen other cities there were temporarily closed, according to notices posted on the official microblog of the province's traffic police.

In the central city of Zhengzhou, authorities ordered students from kindergarten through high school to stay home on Tuesday because of the smog.

More than 300 flights out of the northern city of Tianjin were canceled Sunday due to poor visibility.

Authorities have deployed teams of inspectors to check on polluting factories, reports said.

China has long faced some of the worst air pollution in the world, blamed on its reliance of coal for energy and factory production, as well as a surplus of older, less efficient cars on its roads.

Researchers at Germany's Max Planck institute have estimated that *smog has led to 1.4 million premature deaths per year in China, while the nonprofit group Berkeley Earth in California has had a higher figure, 1.6 million.*


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> Beijing and other cities across northern and central China were shrouded in thick smog Monday, prompting authorities to delay dozens of flights and close highways.
> 
> The Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau extended an "orange alert" for heavy air pollution for three more days. Beijing's smog had initially been forecast to lift by Monday.
> 
> The "orange alert" is the third level, preceding a "red alert," in China's four-tiered warning system. On Sunday, 25 cities in China issued "red alerts" for smog, which triggers orders to close factories, schools and construction sites.
> 
> Air pollution readings in northern Chinese cities were many times above the World Health Organization-designated safe level of 25 micrograms per cubic meter of PM 2.5, the tiny, toxic particles that damage lung tissue. The readings exceeded 400 by Monday afternoon in several cities in the northern province of Hebei.
> 
> Expressways in Shijiazhuang, Hebei's capital, and more than a half-dozen other cities there were temporarily closed, according to notices posted on the official microblog of the province's traffic police.
> 
> In the central city of Zhengzhou, authorities ordered students from kindergarten through high school to stay home on Tuesday because of the smog.
> 
> More than 300 flights out of the northern city of Tianjin were canceled Sunday due to poor visibility.
> 
> Authorities have deployed teams of inspectors to check on polluting factories, reports said.
> 
> China has long faced some of the worst air pollution in the world, blamed on its reliance of coal for energy and factory production, as well as a surplus of older, less efficient cars on its roads.
> 
> Researchers at Germany's Max Planck institute have estimated that *smog has led to 1.4 million premature deaths per year in China, while the nonprofit group Berkeley Earth in California has had a higher figure, 1.6 million.*





And the propaganda against China continues...

Still with no strategy or investments decisions  or suggestions to be made

Just Perma bear message , China  is bad


----------



## notting

Chinese Communist Party holds emergency meeting to come up with a plan as how they can blame foreigners for the catastrophic environmental neglect.

The Chinese Communist Party is dropping the equivalent of 14 Hiroshima Nuclear bombs on the Chinese people *every year.
*
It's now a catch 22 for the Chinese Communist Party who mocked the west for caring about human rights, the people and the environment.
The Chinese Communist Party saw it as their great advantage to promote hatred, division and corruption so they could control and use the Chinese people with terror and fear and end up controlling the world via unprecedented growth.
Now they face the consequences.  The dictators who run the country like a morally bankrupt corporation need to once again stimulate their economy.  However this time it's a lot more tricky because this is what is happening as they do -






*It's catch 22. *

If you don't understand the economic relevance or the reason why 'the west' chose to participate in the Chinese economy, despite the monsters dictating terms in China, then read this thread from the start.
I'm not going to teach it to you again. (or you could go for a field trip to North Korea, escape from your guides, and check out what a closed economy looks like as the alternative)

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/02/heavy-smog-continues-to-choke-chinas-heartland.html


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> Chinese Communist Party holds emergency meeting to come up with a plan as how they can blame foreigners for the catastrophic environmental neglect.
> 
> The Chinese Communist Party is dropping the equivalent of 14 Hiroshima Nuclear bombs on the Chinese people *every year.
> *
> It's now a catch 22 for the Chinese Communist Party who mocked the west for caring about human rights, the people and the environment.
> The Chinese Communist Party saw it as their great advantage to promote hatred, division and corruption so they could control and use the Chinese people with terror and fear and end up controlling the world via unprecedented growth.
> Now they face the consequences.  The dictators who run the country like a morally bankrupt corporation need to once again stimulate their economy.  However this time it's a lot more tricky because this is what is happening as they do -
> 
> View attachment 69408
> 
> 
> *It's catch 22. *
> 
> If you don't understand the economic relevance or the reason why 'the west' chose to participate in the Chinese economy, despite the monsters dictating terms in China, then read this thread from the start.
> I'm not going to teach it to you again. (or you could go for a field trip to North Korea, escape from your guides, and check out what a closed economy looks like as the alternative)
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/02/heavy-smog-continues-to-choke-chinas-heartland.html
> http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/02/heavy-smog-continues-to-choke-chinas-heartland.html




ok keep on going on

good bye


----------



## notting

We are now seeing a direct effect on IO price by Chinese Communist Parties creation of the *air apocalypse* for 'the people.'

When all the people start chocking to death, the communist party, from their air filtered homes, slow down production, a bit, to keep from having to deal with the people,  in a an even more obvious way  ala Tienanmen Square style and IO price and coal take a 'breather.'

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/07/millions-in-china-learn-to-live-with-smog-airpocalypse.html


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> We are now seeing a direct effect on IO price by Chinese Communist Parties creation of the *air apocalypse* for 'the people.'
> 
> When all the people start chocking to death, the communist party, from their air filtered homes, slow down production, a bit, to keep from having to deal with the people,  in a an even more obvious way  ala Tienanmen Square style and IO price and coal take a 'breather.'
> 
> http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/07/millions-in-china-learn-to-live-with-smog-airpocalypse.html




Chicken little???
or GFC


----------



## notting

Banking On China?

An accidental inquiry from an investor exposed the fact that the One of Chinas huge state run national banks sold Wealth Mangement Products that didn't even exist. When shocked investors rushed to the bank, they found the head had dissapeared and the supposed due payment date had passed.

Investors are still waiting for compensation as well as a detailed explanation from the bank.

Liu, 52, was one of 150 private banking customers who had bought the WMPs. In most cases, their ties with the lender go back 10 years when the Hangtianqiao branch joined them up in a "golf club". Under the programme, they frequently invested in the products offered by the branch and in return, the bank paid for them to go on golfing trips domestically and overseas.

"If we can't even trust a big national bank, what other financial institutions can we trust?" Liu Min, who bought 12 million yuan worth of WMPs from Minsheng, said as he waited in the lobby of the Hangtianqiao branch of Minsheng Bank to hear news. Two million yuan of the WMP he invested in is was "due" April 17 but he can't get the money back.

The money was used to cover up a financial black hole left when managers of the branch were unable to recover from a commercial notes scheme. Managers covered up the loss with a 3 billion yuan loan, and they then had to "fill" the loan hole with other sources of funding, according to a media report on Tuesday. _Caixin_ reported that the branch managers converted the commercial notes into banking notes, with higher credit and a lower rate, using fake seals.


----------



## OmegaTrader

notting said:


> Banking On China?
> 
> An accidental inquiry from an investor exposed the fact that the One of Chinas huge state run national banks sold Wealth Mangement Products that didn't even exist. When shocked investors rushed to the bank, they found the head had dissapeared and the supposed due payment date had passed.
> 
> Investors are still waiting for compensation as well as a detailed explanation from the bank.
> 
> Liu, 52, was one of 150 private banking customers who had bought the WMPs. In most cases, their ties with the lender go back 10 years when the Hangtianqiao branch joined them up in a "golf club". Under the programme, they frequently invested in the products offered by the branch and in return, the bank paid for them to go on golfing trips domestically and overseas.
> 
> "If we can't even trust a big national bank, what other financial institutions can we trust?" Liu Min, who bought 12 million yuan worth of WMPs from Minsheng, said as he waited in the lobby of the Hangtianqiao branch of Minsheng Bank to hear news. Two million yuan of the WMP he invested in is was "due" April 17 but he can't get the money back.
> 
> The money was used to cover up a financial black hole left when managers of the branch were unable to recover from a commercial notes scheme. Managers covered up the loss with a 3 billion yuan loan, and they then had to "fill" the loan hole with other sources of funding, according to a media report on Tuesday. _Caixin_ reported that the branch managers converted the commercial notes into banking notes, with higher credit and a lower rate, using fake seals.




It worked during the GFC....


----------



## notting

South Korea’s government wants to know whether Chinese President Xi Jinping gave alternative facts on the nation’s history to Donald Trump.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week, Trump said *Xi told him during a recent summit that “Korea actually used to be a part of China.”* The comments sparked outrage in Seoul and became an issue in South Korea’s presidential race, prompting the foreign ministry to seek to verify what Xi actually said.

“It’s a clear fact acknowledged by the international community that, for thousands of years in history, *Korea has never been part of China,*” foreign ministry spokesman Cho June-hyuck said at a briefing in Seoul on Thursday.

Here is what China does once they invade


----------



## notting

An investigation by Fairfax Media and Australian broadcaster ABC detailing A$6.7m in donations to the Liberal and Labor parties made by billionaires Huang Xiangmo and Chau Chak Wing. The report alleged that ASIO, Australia's intelligence agency, had warned both parties in 2015 about accepting the pair's donations because they had links to China's Communist party. It also said that the warnings had not been heeded.

Mr Huang, founder of Shenzhen-based property group Yuhu Group, was at the centre of a scandal last year that toppled Labor party senator Sam Dastyari when it emerged the politician had accepted thousands of dollars in donations from Yuhu and used them to pay for travel and legal bills.

In interviews with Chinese media, Mr Dastyari had publicly called for Australia to respect China's territorial claims in the South China Sea — a position contrary to that of his party.


----------



## notting

Here is your IQ test - pray tell what is odd about this picture!!!!!
If you get it right it means you have an IQ higher than 6 -


----------



## notting

But this is more important: Beijing's categorical statement that it would not tolerate disorder and military hostilities in its neighborhood *is at odds with its long-standing assurances that its influence with North Korea is limited.*

Indeed, the logic of last week's statement implies quite the opposite: *China* , it now seems, *claims an absolute control over North Korea* and asserts its ability to control all other would-be belligerents — the U.S., Japan and South Korea.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/nor...rge-of-war-in-northeast-asia--commentary.html

North Korea is the obvious decoy.  That is why they are being so provocative.
Makes sense of easily detestable fat boys madness, doesn't it!


----------



## notting

*[URL='https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/05/un-china-blocks-activists-harasses-experts']China engages with the UN on human rights not to further the advance of human rights and make the world a safer and nicer place but to:** "Block Activists and Harasses Expert" *
[/URL]
https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/05/un-china-blocks-activists-harasses-experts


----------



## notting

What China has made for your kids.....

*Counterfeit ISIS Lego sets pulled off shelves*

The *made-in-China* toys were sold both in stores and online,







Not only are they counterfeit (of course like everything made in Chinal) Be hard to come up with more evil thing to get your child into, without any conscience or sense of humanity.  Chinese don't even see what's wrong with it.


----------



## notting

Scott Morrison, in a speech to a business function in New York on Thursday, US time, *urged caution about China being a key source of growth for Australia.*

"The risks to the upside that have borne so much fruit for the Australian economy, can be just as sharp on the downside," he said.

Reminded me of when that labor guy called the end of the mining investment boom.  Seemed a bit premature as he was the first politician to call it and there were no signs in the market as yet, but he was right!  No wonder China is trying distract it's people and the world with Nth Korea provocations.


----------



## notting

Notice how you *did not hear a squeak* out of China (North Korea) for the few days leading into the *Chinese Dictators Congress*.  

As soon as The Chinese Dictatorship finishes it's psychopath fest - China (North Korea)  resumes hostilities......

*North Korea accuses US of 'criminal moves' as three Navy carriers operate in Asian waters*


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Congress over, begin the unwind. Credit pulse fading, ripples around the world.


----------



## notting

'Beijing is picking up pace in its efforts to export ideological conformity by coercing Western publishers to block content perceived as politically sensitive. In recent days, two more incidences have surfaced in the wake of the uproar over Cambridge University Press, which first agreed and then demurred to remove 300 papers from its archive inside China. In a case first reported by the Financial Times, Springer Nature has now blocked access in China to at least 1000 articles containing words deemed sensitive such as 'Taiwan', 'Tibet' and 'Cultural Revolution'. Springer told the FT that the censored articles constituted less than 1% of the company's content.

Another case has emerged regarding work published in Critical Asian Studies by two Italian scholars, Claudia Pozzana and Alessandro Russo, on the prominent Chinese intellectual Wang Hui. Two articles were published without permission in Chinese volumes, one of which was edited by Wang Hui himself. Among the material removed was a large chunk of a paper discussing the protest movement of 1989 and Wang Hui's own analysis of the movement. 'The censors' zealous hand has struck not only the most critical points from our papers but, in doing so, has removed the basis of our intent,' a statement from the Italian academics read. It is notable that they refrained from blaming Wang Hui, even though his actions whitewashed the past, as if the events of 1989 had simply not happened.'


----------



## notting

If all goes to CCP plan 10 years after 2040 China will rule the world






Which means your grandchildren etc will be being worked to death in a factory or having their organs harvested for a few Communist Party Dictators.


----------



## notting

Some substance or just retoric? -

President Donald Trump pushed for freedom and economic openness in a Friday speech that portrayed Washington as a more respectful trade partner to Asian nations than China has been.

Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam, the president also warned against mistreating his country, accusing some countries in the region of *"product dumping, subsidized goods, currency manipulation and predatory industrial policies."*

"We can no longer tolerate these chronic trade *abuses* and we will not tolerate them," Trump said.






Additionally, Washington will "no longer tolerate the *audacious theft of intellectual property,* we will confront *the destructive practices of forcing businesses to surrender their technologies to the state and forcing them into joint ventures* in exchange for market access," he said.

*Many U.S. firms operating in China have complained of such policies.*

Those who play by the rules will be Washington's closest economic partners, Trump said. "Those who do not can be certain that the United States will no longer turn a blind eye to *violations, cheating or economic aggression*. Those days are over."

"We cannot achieve open markets if we do not ensure fair market access," he said, adding that unfair trade "undermines us all."

The world's largest economy will also ink bilateral trade agreements with Indo-Pacific nations that abide by fair and reciprocal trade, he continued. "What we will no longer do is enter into large agreements that *surrender our sovereignty.*"

Meanwhile  - Beijing has a new ship capable of creating artificial islands — potentially the largest of its kind in Asia — raising fears it could be deployed in the tension-laden South China Sea.
China's largest cutter-suction dredger, the Tian Kun Hao, took to the water on November 3, 2017 in Qidong, Jiangsu Province, China. Measuring 140 meters long, the vessel is capable of dredging 6,000 cubic meters per hour. It can dig up to 35 meters deep and boasts a maximum conveyance of 15,000 meters.







China has many land reclamation projects along its coastlines, so the presence of a new dredger isn't unusual. But the nation's track record of territorial aggression has spurred concerns the device will be used to create man-made islands in the South China Sea.

*Whilst creating the islands China reassured the world that it would not militarise the islands. *
But *Beijing blatantly used the dredgers to create seven fortified islands* — some of which *now house airfields, missile bases and radar systems — in the international waterway*. That happened despite contesting assertions of sovereignty from Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration made up a lie to base the aggregation upon the world with  a concept they plucked out of their arses called the nine-dash line to mark territorial claims, which extend roughly 1,000 miles from the nation's southern shores.


----------



## notting

China’s internet censorship system (nicknamed The Great Firewall of China) is the most sophisticated in the world. Unlike a system such as North Korea’s, which simply blocks access to all content except the few websites established by the regime, China’s firewall in many ways gives the illusion of a free and open internet, while allowing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to remain in control.

Ever since the internet became available in China it has been protected by software that the government calls the “Golden Shield”. This system has both censorship and surveillance capabilities and blocks thousands of websites that the CCP has determined to be too dangerous for public consumption. If you run a newspaper that writes articles about human rights abuses in China, don’t expect anyone in China to be able to visit your website. If you are celebrity that calls openly for a free Tibet, you will now be invisible to Chinese netizens. And of course, Free Tibet’s website is totally unreachable under this system (you can check to see if your favourite website is blocked in China at https://en.greatfire.org/analyzer).


----------



## notting

> Investors pushed the benchmark gauge down as much as 1.4 per cent amid concern that the government's latest attempt to tighten supervision of *$US15 trillion in asset-management products* will siphon funds from the market. Developers and brokerages paced losses.
> 
> While analysts applauded the plan as an* important step toward curbing risk* in China's financial system, they also *warned of turbulence* as markets adjust to outflows from popular shadow-banking products. The government directives, which are set to take effect in 2019, add to signs that *President Xi Jinping is willing to sacrifice growth* as he tries to put the world's second-largest economy on a more stable financial footing.




This will be interesting.  lending 100x over against assets that don't exist to be reigned in.
I like what Xi is doing, not much progress on Human rights unfortunately however.


----------



## notting

f^cking awesome 






*



			Clive Palmer wins $200m in damages from former Chinese partners
		
Click to expand...


*
I have a new hero.
Clive smashes the thieving little c*nts

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...lions-in-damages-from-former-chinese-partners


----------



## notting

*Prominent Australian academic says he has been silenced by Chinese Government*



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-...s-been-silenced-by-chinese-government/9142694


----------



## notting

It's not investment it's invasion



> "The nature of Chinese economic decision-making has the potential to cause significant downside risks for those countries that become most dependent on the Belt Road initiative," he said. Nations that suddenly fall out of political favor with Beijing, for whatever reason, could subsequently suffer weighty economic consequences.




The Chines now control you with a more or less ruin!


----------



## notting

> Since Mugabe assumed power in 1980, Beijing has fostered intimate political, military and personal ties with the controversial politician, providing his government with interest-free loans — a relationship that's resulted in hefty Chinese investments within Zimbabwe's tobacco, diamond and power industries.
> 
> China has backed Mugabe even as he was slammed in the West for despotic rule — in 2008, Beijing vetoed a United Nations resolution that would have imposed an arms embargo and financial restrictions on the African leader.




*North Korea is not developing weapons*.  It is just re-branding what China gives it and pretends it's made a new advance like this -



> Adding to the speculation are reports of the Zimbabwe National Army deploying *Chinese-made Type 89 armored vehicles during the coup. Neither the United Nations nor the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute had any record of Type 89s being delivered to Zimbabwe*, IHS Jane's said in a recent note, adding that none of the army's other types of armoured vehicles were seen during the operation.


----------



## notting

*China's trying to gain political influence abroad, and the West isn't happy*

Officials in the U.S., Australia, New Zealand and Germany are questioning the extent of political interference by Beijing in their home countries
Experts say China's Communist Party is using education, spying, political donations and people-to-people diplomacy to gain a greater say in decision-making within these countries
"Chinese security forces have reportedly engaged in a campaign to monitor Chinese nationals, including many students — even threatening them not to offer any criticism of Beijing lest their relatives in China be harmed," Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a recent note.


----------



## notting

*China's using cheap debt to 'bend other countries to its will,' *

China uses sovereign debt to gain political leverage over developing countries, according to Brahma Chellaney from the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research
Member countries of Beijing's Belt and Road program are being trapped into "debt servitude," he said

China's continents-spanning Belt and Road network *threatens to "shackle" partner countries and deprive them of valuable natural assets.*






*Beijing is financing and executing massive infrastructure projects across the 68 nations* participating in the ambitious scheme, which snakes along Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
These recipient countries, many of them emerging economies in dire need of investment, obtain funding in various forms such as sovereign loans from Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration and credit from Chinese state-owned banks.
But concerns of developing countries taking on unrealistic financial obligations have sparked allegations of what's being called 'dept-trap diplomacy.' Earlier this year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration released a statement warning of unsustainable debt burdens being created by Belt and Road.

"Just as European imperial powers employed gunboat diplomacy, China is using sovereign debt to bend other states to its will," according to Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, who described Beijing's policies as "creditor imperialism."
In a stinging editorial published on Project Syndicate, Chellaney — a former adviser to India's National Security Council — pointed to Sri Lanka as an example. The South Asian state, unable to pay back onerous bills to China, recently handed over its Hambantota port to state owned China Merchants Port Holdings in a $1.1 billion deal that was widely viewed as an erosion of sovereignty.

"As Hambantota shows, China is now establishing its own Hong Kong-style neocolonial arrangements," Chellaney said. "Like the opium the British exported to China, the easy loans China offers are addictive. And, because *China chooses its projects according to their long-term strategic value, they may yield short term returns that are insufficient for countries to repay their debts,*" he explained.

 
As a result, the world's second-largest economy holds political leverage over governments and can *"force borrowers to swap debt for equity, thereby expanding China's global footprint by trapping a growing number of countries in debt servitude."*
* And it's not just Sri Lanka. *
In 2016, heavily indebted Djibouti, also part of Belt and Road, agreed to lease one of its military bases to Beijing for $20 million per year, resulting in the first overseas post for China's armed forces.
"China has also used its leverage over Turkmenistan to secure natural gas by pipeline largely on
Chinese terms," Chellaney said, adding that "Kenya's crushing debt to China now threatens to turn its busy port of Mombasa – the gateway to East Africa – into another Hambantota."


----------



## notting

*Chinese vessels transferring oil to North Korean*







American spy satellites had observed *Chinese vessels transferring oil to North Korean ships* in the sea between the two countries about *30 times since October*, Seoul-based newspaper Chosun Ilbo reported Dec. 26, citing unidentified South Korean government officials. China has denied the reports.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

And.......the scam is exposed.......filtering through the global economy right about now?

http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/01/18/the-blatant-dishonesty-of-the-boom/

The smoke & mirrors show of synchronised economic 'growth'?


----------



## notting

*Chinese flight routes set off military alarms in Taiwan*

Public discussion of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan has increased of late.
Beijing's launch of a new air corridor over the Taiwan Strait has contributed to those concerns.
Experts say the new flights carry defense implications for Taipei.
In self-ruled Taiwan, fears of a military invasion from the world's second-largest economy are growing.

Following Beijing's increased military drills near the East Asian island, which China illegally considers as part of its own, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said in a televised broadcast last week that she did not exclude the possibility of a full-blown attack.






The new routes, which are expected to cross paths with Taiwanese flights, will carry major defense implications for Taipei.

"By opening this new corridor, the Chinese will fly surveillance and reconnaissance operations closer to Taiwan on a regular basis, better monitoring communications and other electronic emissions, Such missions will allow the Chinese to pinpoint radars and associated air defense missile batteries more effectively.

Those activities could hurt Taiwan's ability to monitor its air and sea space, which would be an "essential" step in any Chinese military action against the island, Cheng continued.
*A clear majority of Taiwanese — 67.5 percent — said they believed the new Chinese flights posed a threat to national security*, local media reported, citing a recent survey from the Cross-Strait Policy Association.


----------



## notting

*Uyghur Scholar Dies in Chinese Police Custody*

A prominent Uyghur Islamic scholar has died in Chinese police custody, some 40 days after he was detained in the Xinjiang regional capital Urumqi, overseas Uyghur organizations said on Monday.

Muhammad Salih Hajim, 82, died “in custody,” about 40 days after he, his daughter and other relatives were detained, the Uyghur Human Rights Project (UHRP) said in a brief statement.

“The exact circumstances of his death are unknown, but he was taken into custody approximately 40 days ago, along with his daughter and other relatives,” said the UHRP.

“UHRP calls on the Chinese government to reveal under what conditions he was being kept, and to release his relatives if they are not being charged with any crime,” said the statement, which also called for international pressure on China to release *thousands of Uyghurs detained in re-education camps.*


----------



## notting

*Beijing Is Silencing Chinese-Australians*

By ALEX JOSKEFEB. 6, 2018

CANBERRA, Australia — On a September night in 2016, I took my seat at a theater in the heart of Canberra for a Chinese national day celebration organized by the pro-Beijing Chinese Students and Scholars Association. There was a commotion and all of the seats around me were suddenly filled by men in black suits communicating with walkie-talkies. They followed me into the bathroom and tried to have the theater’s security staff kick me out.

Earlier, I had reported for a student newspaper on Chinese government ties to the group and its efforts to censor anti-Communist Party material at my university. I later identified the men at the theater as members of the Chinese student association, and it was clear that the attempt to intimidate me was a result of my articles.

Beijing’s reach into Australia goes far beyond groups like the student association. Its interference in Australian society is becoming increasingly bolder. And as Australians debate how to respond, the voices of the Chinese-Australians alarmed by Beijing’s encroachment are being drowned out by an aggressive Chinese government campaign to silence critics here.

With so many Chinese-Australians left unheard, misunderstandings surrounding the Chinese-Australian community are rife. More than one million Australians claim Chinese ancestry, out of a total population of about 24 million.

The Chinese Communist Party is actively fostering in the Chinese-Australian community what the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, who died while in custody in China last year, called an “enemy mentality”: the idea that the liberal West is China’s enemy and that supporters of freedom are enemies, too. Those objecting to the Communist Party’s oppression, like pro-democracy activists, are widely referred to as “poison” or “hostile forces.”

Fear is among Beijing’s most potent weapons in silencing Chinese-Australians. Like me, other Chinese-Australian critics of Beijing are targets of threats and intimidation. Last year, a Sydney-based university professor, Feng Chongyi, was detained in China for a week. The Chinese-Australian artist Guo Jian was briefly detained in 2014 after creating a diorama of Tiananmen Square to commemorate the 1989 massacre.

China also monitors the social media accounts of dissidents in Australia, and many fear that their private messages and social networks might make them targets of the Chinese government. Badiucao, a Chinese-Australian cartoonist and street artist, has never revealed his face or real name out of fear.

Even those who avoid actively criticizing Beijing are affected. Last month, word spread of a Taiwanese waitress in Sydney who claimed that she had been asked by her boss at a Chinese hot-pot restaurant if she thought Taiwan belonged to China. “Definitely not,” she replied, and a few minutes later found herself without a job.
Beijing’s control of the Chinese-language news media helps to elevate the pro-Beijing voices here, while critics of Beijing find themselves with few public platforms. Prominent supporters of Beijing are rewarded by Beijing with trips to China.

Few Chinese organizations publicly opposing the Chinese Communist Party are left, their rallying power having been stunted by the lack of coverage by Chinese-language news outlets. And some independent organizations have been taken over by pro-Beijing members, who then change the club’s mission.

Beijing’s domination of the conversation in the Chinese community gives the wider public a skewed view of Chinese-Australians. The rest of the country is left with the impression that Chinese-Australians are a unified bloc that supports Beijing. One right-wing commentator even wrote an article titled, “A Million Chinese Here May Not All Be on Our Side.” This mind-set affects Australia’s policymaking process.

Beijing’s agents here are also keen to remind Australians of this country’s shameful history of racism against Chinese. The result is that when a Chinese-Australian is accused of having ties to Beijing, he may cry racism, saying that he’s being tarnished by connections to Beijing only because he’s ethnic Chinese. In the absence of balanced reporting in the Chinese-language media, many Australians are inclined to believe these claims.

A series of new bills in Parliament on foreign interference, including the introduction of a foreign-agents register and a ban on foreign political donations, would weaken Beijing’s levers of control among Chinese-Australians. It may also inspire new confidence among Chinese-Australians that our struggles are being recognized, that we are no longer being left to fend for ourselves in this fight against coercion.

Still, many Chinese-Australians feel frustrated by the way we are viewed and represented. All Chinese-Australians should have the right to voice their opinions without fearing reprisals by Beijing.

So-called Chinese community leaders who do not in fact represent most Chinese-Australians should be forthcoming about their ties to the Communist Party. And those who do not reveal their ties should be called out not just in English-language media but also in the Chinese-language press. Independent Chinese-Australian community groups should be supported.

The Australian government must do its part to put an end to Beijing’s coercive influence on the local Chinese-language news media and the broader Chinese community. Our government should use diplomatic and security channels to push back against pressure on the media and Beijing’s takeover of Chinese community groups. The independence and reach of publicly funded Mandarin and Cantonese news outlets should be ensured and expanded.

Chinese-Australians are not powerless. We need to speak up. But it’s also time for all Australians, regardless of ethnic background, to unite to protect the country’s sovereignty and dignity. If we are truly a nation of tolerance and freedom, all Australians should support Chinese-Australians’ freedom of expression.


----------



## notting

*You might think that Trumps new tariffs are stupid and ineffective* and not targeted at China as claimed - because China is a smaller exporter of steel and aluminum to the US than say Canada or Mexico.

Think again

*The sneaky, cheating, thieving evil Chinese *are always breaking the laws, screwing with the rest of the world in order to weaken and take over it
- A California aluminum executive commissioned a pilot to fly over the Mexican town of San José Iturbide, to snap aerial photos of a remote desert factory.
*He made a startling discovery*. - *Nearly one million metric tons of aluminum* sat neatly stashed behind a fortress of barbed-wire fences *in Mexico - By this Chinese Communist billionaire to make it look like it's a NAFTA issue not Chinese dumping.*










Aerial photos of a remote desert factory.

The stockpile, is worth some $2 billion and *represents roughly 6% of the world’s total inventory*—enough to churn out 2.2 million Ford F-150s or 77 billion beer cans—quickly became an obsession for the U.S. aluminum industry.

 U.S. executives contend that the mysterious cache was part of a brazen scheme by one of Communist China’s richest men to game the global trade system.

The Chinese do this type of thing with everything they can.

*Trump is right about the tariffs.  The Chinese have been distorting markets with this kind of cheating and manipulation for decades. *


----------



## notting

Almost all Chinese made stuff crap -


----------



## satanoperca

Notting, while I like some of your posts, I am wondering, why you dislike for all things Chinese.

I then wonder, if I did an audit on you, are some of you clothes, kitchen appliances, car parts, shoes, furniture, tv and electronic equipment etc made in China.

While I agree, that a lot of stuff made in China is crap, they are just meeting the market, people want cheap so they produce cheap. 

Consumers have a choice, but they choose on price, I cannot and you cannot change peoples mindset.

So I ask you this, if China is so bad, name me a country that is better and looking after their own and the rest of the world and please do not say the USA, as they (1%) has arse f--ked the other 99% in the name of democracy to toooo long


----------



## notting

Every country on earth.


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> Every country on earth.



Really, that was your reply


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> Really, that was your reply




Your questions are to stupid to warrant more, I can't be bothered
e.g -
*WOW blow me away! *- You actually think I wouldn't be across the made in China crap


----------



## satanoperca

Don't know, your hatred is so strong. Just thought I would ask, but seem to have struck a raw nerve as you quickly look at the labels on all your clothing.

As for the comment, stupid, gives me in insight into your post, there is never a stupid question, just a stupid answer.

Keep up your hatred, it will do your health well


----------



## notting

It's compassion for the people and the animals that they torture to death on a daily basis on an unimaginable scale that drives what I post about China.
Oh, and the issue of 'Engaging China in trade' was addressed by Nixen, I was across that then!
'Looking at a label' - Insulting.
Read the thread from about 10 pages back. ALL OF IT.


----------



## satanoperca

Okay, that is up to you.
But with replies like this "Your questions are to stupid to warrant more, I can't be bothered", your comments and posts which I have found interesting and sometimes informative go into the bin.



notting said:


> It's compassion for the people and the animals that they torture to death on a daily basis on an unimaginable scale that drives what I post about China.




there is 1.3B of them, I wonder as a % are we any different, if not worse.


----------



## notting

satanoperca said:


> there is 1.3B of them, I wonder as a % are we any different, if not worse.



You just don't seem to have the ability to think.
So to help you with your *'wondering'*
This is what worst looks like - We don't do this to our innocent and most peaceful citizens -








We don't do this and worse on a massive scale to our cats and dogs - 






They are laughing toward the end - 

https://fightdogmeat.com/videos-china-graphic/

We don't round up our most honourable citizens who cannot be corrupted and harverst their organs.


So pull your head out of your arse and -

*WONDER NO MORE.*

PS. they are fully engaged in coming for Australia and every other nation.  Make NO mistake about it, it's not the kind of mistake you want to make - 


*The whole of Chinese society is a threat to all of US!!!*
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-threat-to-america-fbi-director-warns-2018-2?r=US&IR=T


----------



## CanOz

One of the best articles on what's wrong with china's plan that I've seen to date....

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-is-losing-the-new-Cold-War


----------



## luutzu

CanOz said:


> One of the best articles on what's wrong with china's plan that I've seen to date....
> 
> https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-is-losing-the-new-Cold-War




Sorry but it's quite bad. He's wrong on a lot of things, first of which is history of why the Soviet collapsed.

Well... that's according to historians I've heard from various docu and interviews... and a bit about other lectures I've seen about imperial this and that.

I thought the Soviets collapsed becuase of its arms race with the US/Reagan too. But a few US historians have said that the Soviet knew the moment the arms race started that it's a joke they shouldn't follow. 

The Soviet leadership even brought back from Siberia a couple intellectual to hear their point regarding the arms race. They said that even if the US managed to build that Star Wars system, it could easily be overcome by firing massive barrage at a target or two. Problem solved.

I think it was the late prof Wolin [?] in an interview with Chris Hedges saying that when Gorbachev release the locked archived of Soviet adventures overseas, the peasants were seriously horrified and demand an end of the spreading of "socialism" abroad. 

I'm sure that's oversiplifying it but yea, weren't due to them going broke because of Socialism or the arms race. Too much corruption, cronyism and imperial over-reach... on top of an angry mob; the forfeiting of East Germany to be united with a promise (taht weren't kept) from Bush Senior to not have Germany become a member of NATO nor move NATO "one inch to the East". They're now at the border.

The thing is, if you take Mr. Pei's thesis for the collapse of empire, it would more appropriately apply to the American one than the Chinese one.

For one, China's military, according to Pei, spend some $275B - i.e. a lot more than the official $125B or so... That's a lot for sure. But compare that to the American $726B this current budget. 

That $726B doesn't include the black-ops, the nukes renewal programmes; the space force; the veteran affairs etc. If it's all include, the US taxpayers is looking at at least $1Trillion a year.

While that might be peanuts if the yank can keep paying it with their printed money. But given their debt level, the paper money backed by American prestige... What were to happen if no body around the world buy the greenbacks as a currency reserve; or oil no longer trade in US dollars? 


As to the Belt and Road Initiatives... Pei's analysis is pretty shallow. And that's coming from me, who watches YouTube. 

You just do not count investment of such scale in terms of dollars and cents. If you do, you do not count the return within the same year or construction cycle period. 

Imagine the efficiency gains; the reduction in air pollution, fuel reduction etc. from high speed rail; freeways; roads and bridges, tunnels. And that's just domestically. 

Internationally... as some founder of modern-day political scientist pointed out back in 1900s - McKinder? - Those who manage to control Euro-Asia, controls the world. 

That while control of sea ports and trade routes are important... most of the world's population are located on the Euro-Asian landmass. It's one continent. Separated by a massive desert between Europe and Asia... but it's a single landmass.

Han China managed to equal or superceded imperial Rome from a dusty old Silk Road to the West.

China's rails and roads linking it with S/E Asia, with the Middle East, Russia, Eastern Europe, into Europe... That's having the world by the nuts. 

Then there's its ambition in the seas... connecting a trade/military maritime route into Africa. 

Most important, I think, is that most of the places China is working in... Africa, the Pacific and other small nations... They have all experience Western/American imperialism. They haven't seen the Chinese flavour yet. 

So Chinese "diplomats" and friendly faces might be more believable than a White one. That and since the other guy have been using the bombs to keep the peace... China is forced to be more diplomatic, more generous. That's how you let people in to take your stuff.


----------



## notting

luutzu said:


> They have all experience Western/American imperialism.



This is just such Chomsky and CCP brainwashed BS.
The US is the least imperial of any nation in history relative to it's capacity.
Further there is more discontent with the evil ways China conducts itself in the countries it is selling debt enslavement to and abusing the local workers even at these early stages of its far more 'imperialistic' initiatives.
People and administrations are wising up to it because it's so brazenly brutal and despicable.  The CCP is so used to getting away with it's extremes of evil against it's own people and the helpless nations it is occupying that their ideas of subtle or soft power grabs are not seen as soft by other nations in the same way at all.


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> This is just such Chomsky brainwashed BS.
> The US is the least imperial of any nation in history relative to it's capacity.
> Further there is more discontent with the evil ways China conducts itself in the countries it is selling debt enslavement to and abusing the local workers even at these early stages of its far more 'imperialistic' initiatives.
> People and administrations are wising up to it.




Chomsky is a great historian and scholar. He's made out to be some sort of loonie leftwing nutjob because he's critical of the US and "capitalism".

The US was born as an imperial project. The thirteen colonies of Britain; that war for independence soon follow the purchase from French holdings; then the annexation of Spain's Florida, Cuba and various holdings in the Caribbean. Then the onward march West, further annexing land from Mexico right after a civil war put a pause to the ambition.

That's not mentioning the almost total eradication of the Native Americans.

All that was done in the span of about 150 years.

China is the same... starts off as a tiny Chou; broke up into various feudal states fighting each other for 800 freaking years until the first emperor unify it again.

Then onward and outward... massacring weaker barbarians, a couple decades with each other, then more barbarians until the Gweilo sent them a few shiploads of opium backed with plenty of gunboat diplomacy.

China's expansion took some 3000 years. The USA took about 150 years to gain a similar landmass.

Then things really got into high gear during WWI, then WWII... after which Uncle Sam almost completely dominate the world.

That's not Chomsky talking. That's just historical facts and current event.

-------------

Of course China is expanding and have imperial ambition. No one's denying that. And I'm not excusing it or saying they'll be a kinder, more gentler master.

But to say China as an imperial power will be worst than another, say the US... that's just not factual.

They'll be just as brutal where they can; and be more behind the scene where they must.

Take the example of "debt enslavement" by the Chinese.

That's what the US have been doing all these decades through the World Bank and the IMF. That's what the EU troika is doing to weaker EU countries like Greece, Italy, Spain... and many more I haven't read about.


----------



## notting

A group of #Kazakh mothers from East #Turkistan who hold pictures of their detained husbands , sons and gathered in front of #Chinese consulate in Almaty city of #Kazakhstan. The mothers demand Chinese government to release their husbands, sons and relatives and also shutdown the concentration camps. At result , A Chinese Consular Officer threatens to the mothers and say " You come here illegally and that those who organize this event will be held accountable by the law ". .......



Not even Tigers are safe from the inbred Han psychopaths - The Chinese





When I first saw this horrific photo quite a while ago.  I had no idea what was going on or what it was about.  Just one word came to my mind CHINA.  and then I read the story and the word was 100% accurate.  It wasn't the US, or colonial France or England.  No way!

Who else could come up with such a sick and demented idea like starving a tiger will make it's piss more potent for you to drink and become a stronger man.
Or that ripping a rhinos horn off it's head will make you more virile because the animal is big and it's shaped like an erect dick.
Or that cutting off the fins of sharks will make a good soup the list is endless.
Not to mention the doctors eating human embryos after forced abortions because it will make them live longer. - you know get the young human meat into you sonny.



> South Korean customs officials recently seized thousands of pills filled with powdered human baby flesh arriving from China. Since August 2011, South Korean officials have intercepted more than 17000 pills smuggled from China.
> 
> South Korean officials became aware of a horrific practice of eating aborted fetuses after Seoul Broadcasting System showed a documentary on Chinese doctors who performed abortions and then ate the fetuses. One Chinese doctor on the documentary took out fetuses from his refrigerator


----------



## notting




----------



## notting

I told you they are far more racist than we are.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/world/africa/kenya-china-racism.html?rref=collection/sectioncollection/world


----------



## notting

*$6 trillion US$ of local government debt may be lurking under the surface in China: S&P*

Gee, fancy that.  Who'd of thought?  

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/china-hidden-local-government-debt-could-be-6-trillion-sp.html


----------



## notting

*We Own You - 'One China'*
The NYT article features testimony from a variety of Kenyans who say they've experienced blatant racism from their Chinese employers, and have been segregated from Chinese employees.
*Soon to be slaves - *
"In Nairobi, workers in their 20s and 30s swap stories of racism or discrimination they have witnessed. One described watching a Chinese manager slap her Kenyan colleague, who was also a woman, for a minor mistake. Other Kenyan workers explained how their office bathrooms were separated by race: one for Chinese employees, the other for Kenyans," the article states.


----------



## notting

*China is locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims without trial in its western region of Xinjiang.*
The Chinese Communist Party denies the claims, saying people willingly attend special “vocational schools” which combat “terrorism and religious extremism”.


One of the most pressing human rights concerns of our age.
A massive, highly secure compound newly built in a Chinese desert away from where anyone would bother to visit - is a newly enclosed concentration camp with a 2km-long exterior wall punctuated by 16 guard towers. It's the world biggest concentration camp. with a grater capacity than all the concentration camps in Germany during the time of Hitler. 
This is just one!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> *China is locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims without trial in its western region of Xinjiang.*
> The Chinese Communist Party denies the claims, saying people willingly attend special “vocational schools” which combat “terrorism and religious extremism”.
> 
> 
> One of the most pressing human rights concerns of our age.
> A massive, highly secure compound newly built in a Chinese desert away from where anyone would bother to visit - is a newly enclosed concentration camp with a 2km-long exterior wall punctuated by 16 guard towers. It's the world biggest concentration camp. with a grater capacity than all the concentration camps in Germany during the time of Hitler.
> This is just one!
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps




Didn't hear much, if anything, about this.

Way too many Western corporate interests in China for the media to take it on or what?

Wait til Google goes back into bed with China. What re-education camp on what map?


----------



## notting

Here is the real map of China if you want to see a real map, not the fake one that everyone uses these days to placate them.







Here are some pictures of the concentration camp that is bigger than all of Hitlers put together.
Whilst pretending to the world that they were closing the camps and making grand shows of such they have been secretly buiding them  in remote areas.  This is better than a map it's a PHOTO -






Here's a photo a little later











Here's some of th nicer thing they do to nuns in the camps -

Round the clock rape of nuns who they also force to dress in military outfits for their brainwashing sessions









Have you forgotten how to click on a link?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps
*Yeah but keep on blaming Western companies for doing business with China, that's where the fault really lies.*


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> Here is the real map of China if you want to see a real map, not the fake one that everyone uses these days to placate them.
> 
> View attachment 90043
> 
> 
> ...
> Have you forgotten how to click on a link?
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps
> *Yeah but keep on blaming Western companies for doing business with China, that's where the fault really lies.*




The BBC is still a public/national broadcaster, the private ("mainstream") media... don't mention any of these. Not saying that it doesn't happen, saying that they figured it's not to their commercial interest to make it important. 

That map of China is being way too simplistic. There's at least some 50+ states that's been "absorbed" so well it's missing. Read somewhere before that there's some 100+ ethnic minorities in China today. 

So yea, China knows how to do empire building alright. Just that most in the world do not realise it seeing how they were properly colonised and impoverished since the mid-1800s to about four decades ago.

But, again, as brutal and as violent as the Chinese state is, the Chinese people are, on the whole, quite decent. Most people generally are.


----------



## Darc Knight

luutzu said:


> But, again, as brutal and as violent as the Chinese state is, the Chinese people are, on the whole, quite decent. Most people generally are.




That's interesting Luu. I remember a friend of Mine's Car broke down. A Chinese middle aged Man came over and found my friends misfortune hilarious. I said to my friend that this Chinese Man's lack of empathy was a bit annoying. My friend recalled an incident in South East Asia where a Boat overturned and its occupants drowned all while a group of Chinese stood on the shoreline laughing. He reasoned Chinese have a weird sence of humour. I further reasoned, perhaps they are desensitistised to human suffering due to living under a brutal regime.


----------



## SirRumpole

Darc Knight said:


> I further reasoned, perhaps they are desensitistised to human suffering due to living under a brutal regime.




Doesn't bode well if China continues to expand.

They don't seem to mind doing things like this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal


----------



## luutzu

Darc Knight said:


> That's interesting Luu. I remember a friend of Mine's Car broke down. A Chinese middle aged Man came over and found my friends misfortune hilarious. I said to my friend that this Chinese Man's lack of empathy was a bit annoying. My friend recalled an incident in South East Asia where a Boat overturned and its occupants drowned all while a group of Chinese stood on the shoreline laughing. He reasoned Chinese have a weird sence of humour. I further reasoned, perhaps they are desensitistised to human suffering due to living under a brutal regime.




There's about 1.5Billion of them, there's going to be a fair number of pri[ks among that large a population.

Like people from all races and culture, for everyone of those you can find hundreds and thousands of just average ordinary decent human beings. 

And for everyone of the "Chinese" bad deeds, you can find the same or similar perpetrated by members of other race and culture too. 

I know I don't need to say these stuff, just you know... in case.


----------



## luutzu

SirRumpole said:


> Doesn't bode well if China continues to expand.
> 
> They don't seem to mind doing things like this.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal




It's never going to bode well for any weak state with plenty of resources and strategic location when a rising power starts to ask if it needed any help.


----------



## notting

*Shri Lanka has just fallen.*
It's now in China's hands.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/29/sri...ent-as-one-killed-at-ex-ministers-office.html
They always do it with evil against humanity -
Mr. Rajapaksa, who was elected in 2005, presided over the last years of the war, when Sri Lanka became increasingly isolated by accusations of human rights abuses. Under him, Sri Lanka relied heavily on China for economic support, military equipment and political cover at the United Nations to block potential sanctions.

* •* During the 2015 Sri Lankan elections,* large payments from the Chinese port construction fund flowed directly to campaign aides and activities for Mr. Rajapaksa,* who had agreed to Chinese terms at every turn and was seen as an important ally in China’s efforts to tilt influence away from India in South Asia. The payments were confirmed by documents and cash checks detailed in a government investigation seen by The New York Times.

*• *Though *Chinese officials and analysts have insisted that China’s interest in the Hambantota port is purely commercial,* Sri Lankan officials said that from the start, *the intelligence and strategic possibilities of the port’s location were part of the negotiations.*

Here is another, map for you, of other couthries China has provided similar predatory loans to, to build ports whilst corrupting government officials (Note Melbourne)-







Join the dots to see how China hopes to reunite these rogue states with the motherland.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
*Brazil just elected a guy who is trying to fight back*
Bolsonaro has warned of Chinese investors taking control of strategic natural resources in the mining and energy sectors.
"China isn't buying in Brazil, China is buying Brazil," he said in August. "Are you willing to leave Brazil in the hands of the Chinese?"
*But it's probably too late, they are already too dependent. *Experts say Bolsonaro may be *forced* to temper his more antagonistic impulses for the sake of economic interests.


----------



## SirRumpole

notting said:


> Here is another, map for you, of other couthries China has provided similar predatory loans to, to build ports whilst corrupting government officials (Note Melbourne)-




Darwin ?


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> *Shri Lanka has just fallen.*
> It's now in China's hands.
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/29/sri...ent-as-one-killed-at-ex-ministers-office.html
> They always do it with evil against humanity -
> Mr. Rajapaksa, who was elected in 2005, presided over the last years of the war, when Sri Lanka became increasingly isolated by accusations of human rights abuses. Under him, Sri Lanka relied heavily on China for economic support, military equipment and political cover at the United Nations to block potential sanctions.
> 
> * •* During the 2015 Sri Lankan elections,* large payments from the Chinese port construction fund flowed directly to campaign aides and activities for Mr. Rajapaksa,* who had agreed to Chinese terms at every turn and was seen as an important ally in China’s efforts to tilt influence away from India in South Asia. The payments were confirmed by documents and cash checks detailed in a government investigation seen by The New York Times.
> 
> *• *Though *Chinese officials and analysts have insisted that China’s interest in the Hambantota port is purely commercial,* Sri Lankan officials said that from the start, *the intelligence and strategic possibilities of the port’s location were part of the negotiations.*
> 
> Here is another, map for you, of other couthries China has provided similar predatory loans to, to build ports whilst corrupting government officials (Note Melbourne)-
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Join the dots to see how China hopes to reunite these rogue states with the motherland.
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
> *Brazil just elected a guy who is trying to fight back*
> Bolsonaro has warned of Chinese investors taking control of strategic natural resources in the mining and energy sectors.
> "China isn't buying in Brazil, China is buying Brazil," he said in August. "Are you willing to leave Brazil in the hands of the Chinese?"
> *But it's probably too late, they are already too dependent. *Experts say Bolsonaro may be *forced* to temper his more antagonistic impulses for the sake of economic interests.




The US should refocus its priorities else it will lose all its influence around the globe in a couple generation to China. 

Paraphrasing Alfred McCoy, the US ought to be more strategic about which corner of the world it most prizes so that other (less influential) powers can occupy other spaces while it confronts a proper peer competitor without going completely nuclear. 

Britain planned for it during WWII, forced into a strategic retreat after the war and completely settles for chief lieutenant after Eisenhower shoos it (and the French) back from the planned re-take of the Suez Canal. 

If we look at all the hemispheric/regional US Commands... Africom, [MEcom ], Indo-Pacific, NATO, South America... all those commands, except for the Indo-Pacific one, are all keeping the US and its allies quite occupied. 

You can't fight any war on all fronts, in all region. The US and its Western allies are doing just that.


----------



## luutzu

SirRumpole said:


> Darwin ?




They're only renting it for 99 years. After they our great grandkids can rent it back from theirs


----------



## notting

The  mistakes the Chinese making are largely due to the fact the Chinese dictatorship class, themselves have been brainwashed since birth and will underestimate how easily it will be seen through this kind of vial Mao stuff.
https://www.change.org/p/minister-h...lightning_2primary_share_options_more.control
Also the *untenable costs* of China's new soft invasions as shown in the port map above are likely turn back on them just as it did on the British when they tried to run India.


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> The  mistakes the Chinese making are largely due to the fact the Chinese dictatorship class, themselves have been brainwashed since birth and will underestimate how easily it will be seen through this kind of vial Mao stuff.
> https://www.change.org/p/minister-h...lightning_2primary_share_options_more.control
> Also the *untenable costs* of China's new soft invasions as shown in the port map above are likely turn back on them just as it did on the British when they tried to run India.




I don't follow China's politics closely so have noticed a few setbacks/mistakes they've made past few years. But they're quite quick to learn from it though. 

There's that time they thought it's no biggie to anchor an offshore oil rig inside Vietnam's territorial waters. The Comrades in Hanoi let the plebs loose for a bit and they burnt down a few Chinese industrial parks, killing three Chinese nationals I think. 

Beijing stationed its troops near Hanoi, things calm down real quick... But since then they've only ramp any and all puny VNese fishing boats found fishing in "Chinese waters", so less public outcry.


Those projects and debt might be all lost but they'd still be less than what the US is currently spending each year just to maintain the status quo. 

I think the official figures is about $100B a year for some 1,000+ (known) bases around the world. The Pentagon/Defence budget is about $1Trillion a year. 

So China could comfortably fund a few of its corporations, sending them to some far flung African or S/American country to do deals and the US/West will either have to send some presence over to keep an eye out or watch as the Chinese flip or prop up dictators and friendly pollies .

I heard that that's why the US is getting back down into South America in a real hurry lately. 

Looking at the domestic infrastructures China's been building... it's incredible. Roads, bridges, rail linking the entire country. From zero to the world's longest high speed tracks and fleet in less than 10 years, soon to be the longest of all the world's combined.

With the new ($1 trillion?) Belt/Road infrastructure plan... the last time the East was linked with the Middle East and into Europe was Genghis Khan's. The last time the Chinese mapped the world's sea lanes on this scale was by Admiral Zheng He under order by a guy whose ambition was nothing less than global hegemony. 

You'd think Western planners would be hard at work doing something serious about not losing this one... but for some reason they decided it's best to upset Russia, isolating it rather than bringing it in from the cold and keep China a bit busy at half of its frontiers. 

Then getting itself into about 7 wars in the Middle East, spending loads of cash and plenty of military brainpower fighting idiots like ISIS, the Taliban, impoverished tribes in Yemen, Somalia pirates.... and not really winning it at that. 

But I suppose giving $250M to ASEAN countries, or $25M a piece... that'll win the Asians over. 

6 more years of Trump is going to see China getting to a point where S/E Asia will just have to be "lost", again... or have a couple proxy wars starting, giving S/Korea and Japan an excuse to militarise and have their own liberation from US control.


----------



## notting

luutzu said:


> Looking at the domestic infrastructures China's been building... it's incredible. Roads, bridges, rail linking the entire country. From zero to the world's longest high speed tracks and fleet in less than 10 years, soon to be the longest of all the world's combined.



It's certainly incredibly large but it's not market driven.  Most Chinese can't and probably will never be able to afford the tickets on the trains for instance. There massively under used. Either the government will go broke trying to save face by keeping them going or they will end up largely unused. The internal debt they have generated to build it is staggering!

US has been incredibly stupid in response to the terror attacks.  They totally took the bait and lost Trillions that's true.

The other mistake the Chinese continually make is that they think they can win human domination with force and inhumanity. It's extremely short sighted and dumb.  Mao didn't care.  All he cared about was staying in power till he died.
The CCP acts like it was a template for success.

It might seem to work in small defenseless places like, East Turkistan and Tibet for a short time but even in those places they have not won the hearts of the people and still have to go to disproportionate lengths to maintain the status quo.  It's an oxymoron to  win over humanity with inhumanity.  Really dumb.
They cant' see past their violent and bullying ways. Ultimately they can only fail.


> However, Mr Hillman added that while these policies generate resentment, they were intended to create a climate of fear and send the message that fighting back was futile.
> 
> "There is no doubt in my mind that this type of treatment and the abuse of people's rights is going to foster resentment, and it is not going to make the Uighurs and other minorities in these camps more loyal," he said




Remember that not even the Chinese in Hong Kong or Taiwan want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist party.  That's how much of failure they truly are. In other words the Chinese don't want to be ruled by them!

It's our job to minimize the misery they inflict in the meantime.
Like this -
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10...ults-and-strengthens-war-on-religion/10390784


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> It's certainly incredibly large but it's not market driven.  Most Chinese can't and probably will never be able to afford the tickets on the trains for instance. There massively under used. Either the government will go broke trying to save face by keeping them going or they will end up largely unused. The internal debt they have generated to build it is staggering!
> 
> US has been incredibly stupid in response to the terror attacks.  They totally took the bait and lost Trillions that's true.
> 
> The other mistake the Chinese continually make is that they think they can win human domination with force and inhumanity. It's extremely short sighted and dumb.  Mao didn't care.  All he cared about was staying in power till he died.
> The CCP acts like it was a template for success.
> 
> It might seem to work in small defenseless places like, East Turkistan and Tibet for a short time but even in those places they have not won the hearts of the people and still have to go to disproportionate lengths to maintain the status quo.  It's an oxymoron to  win over humanity with inhumanity.  Really dumb.
> They cant' see past their violent and bullying ways. Ultimately they can only fail.
> 
> 
> Remember that not even the Chinese in Hong Kong or Taiwan want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist party.  That's how much of failure they truly are. In other words the Chinese don't want to be ruled by them!
> 
> It's our job to minimize the misery they inflict in the meantime.
> Like this -
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10...ults-and-strengthens-war-on-religion/10390784




Personal preferences doesn't count for much when you're going to be dominated though. Unfortunately, politics follow that Bismarck maxim of "might makes right".

China is not going to let Taiwan go independent or entertain any American ship. They might go to war over it. It's not just the historical claims and national pride at work, it's part of their move to push the US back the heck away and out of the neighbourhood.

And so far, the US is a bit busy all over the place; close to being bankrupt if it's not careful. Heard, from McCoy, that the US Navy in the Pacific is so over-worked that two of its frigates [?] got into accidents during routine runs around the Pacific/S.China Seas.
-----------

I don't know the details of China's roads and infrastructure usage. But I reckon that although the toll is high and usage reserves to the wealthier lots... it could change quite rapidly the way the US inter-state highway and rail networks link the states soon after WWII. Leading to massive adoption of cars, urbanisation, efficiencies, rapid economic development etc.

But yea, China has the image problem - totalitarian, Communist, human rights abuses etc. But you could argue that since Iraq, the torture programs, droning everywhere, befriending dictators, overthrowing this and that regime, sanctioning everyone they don't like, excusing a highly publicised brutal murder 'cause there's money to be made, being outright racist, sending troops to stop refugees... 

I mean politics have always been cruel, just that you got to pretty it up with nice speeches and big smiles and stuff. Being naked isn't pretty.


----------



## notting

luutzu said:


> Iraq, the torture programs, droning everywhere, befriending dictators, overthrowing this and that regime, sanctioning everyone they don't like, excusing a highly publicised brutal murder 'cause there's money to be made




Classic Chomsky false equivalencies. These are reactions to far greater evils like Putin's agony gassing in Syria.  Which would be everywhere if it wasn't for the west clumsily doing what it can to limit the tyrants.

Pathetic.

Put your money where your mouth is. Make your children Muslims and go live in East Turkistan. 
Why wouldn't you? 
What are you doing here?
Go back to what you bat for.


----------



## luutzu

notting said:


> Classic Chomsky false equivalencies. These are reactions to far greater evils like Putin's a Syria.
> Pathetic.




Chomsky is not a philosopher and does not hold an ideology. I know because I've listened and watched his work quite extensively. He's a historian and scholar, first and foremost. It's a shame that not enough people study his work, it's the best, most objective study of modern history. 

As to false equivalencies... An evil deed is evil, regardless of who does it, which side they're on. Putin's handyworks in Syria is no more or less vile than the Americans, the Israelis, the Saudis, the Chinese...

Those who excuse Soviet invasion of, say, Afghanistan is no different to those who excuse the Alliance; same as those mandarins who excuse Chinese taking Tibet etc. etc. They're all the same, just serve a different master.


----------



## notting

I just told you to go live in your equivelent evil
So FO

Make sure you take your dog to you sub human C


----------



## explod

luutzu said:


> Chomsky is not a philosopher and does not hold an ideology. I know because I've listened and watched his work quite extensively. He's a historian and scholar, first and foremost. It's a shame that not enough people study his work, it's the best, most objective study of modern history.
> 
> As to false equivalencies... An evil deed is evil, regardless of who does it, which side they're on. Putin's handyworks in Syria is no more or less vile than the Americans, the Israelis, the Saudis, the Chinese...
> 
> Those who excuse Soviet invasion of, say, Afghanistan is no different to those who excuse the Alliance; same as those mandarins who excuse Chinese taking Tibet etc. etc. They're all the same, just serve a different master.



Well put Iuutzu.

Just for a start the yanks via the crooks they arm have been getting into Syria for 40 years, for the oil of course.  Saddam Hussein fell for the same, was starting to pipe his oil north to Russia.  Don't start me on Afghanistan, Vietnam et. al

Of course the Seppo's have God, so stand back and have a drink when the games begin.  Party for our funerals all round, bejeezuuzz


----------



## notting

*China's Huawei and ZTE were banned from providing 5G technology equipment to Australia in August.*

Australia's government said at the time that it could not involve firms that were "subject to extrajudicial directions from a foreign government that conflict with Australian law" in its national 5G rollout.

*Chinese smartphone manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE are subject to legislation that requires citizens and businesses to cooperate with Chinese intelligence authorities.*

*China throws a tantrum, for they see no reason why Australian's wouldn't want to live under their rule.*
*Just look at how they treat the countries they have invaded and occupy so far -*
*Unless your a corruptible Han psychopath who is willing to shoot your own parents for a dollar, your of no use to the Chinese  so it's Off to the concentration camp where the Chinese work you to death, harvest your organs for a communist party member or just torture you to death for fun -*


----------



## notting

World war 1 ended today 
World war 3 is well and truly in play.
Most people are to stupid to realize it - 
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/b...-used-australian-insider-20181031-p50d2e.html

I was so happy to see this video. Not because of the awful reality but because at least they are on to it!!
It was odd that someone with the public persona of Banon would say it but he is spot on - 


The south China Sea is another decoy in an attempt to weaken and distract the US on the way to China.


----------



## notting

If your surprised your an idiot.



> “North Korea’s decommissioning of the Sohae satellite launch facility, while *gaining much media attention, obscures the military threat to U.S. forces and South Korea from this and other undeclared ballistic missile bases*,” Bermudez said.




https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...=topNews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

https://www.c-span.org/video/?452464-6/washington-journal-michael-pillsbury-discusses-us-china-relations


----------



## notting

Mihrigul Tursun, a 29 year-old Uygur woman, tells of her experience in one of Chinas concentration camps.



> Tursun was arrested for the first time when she arrived at Urumqi airport from Egypt with her 2-month-old triplets in 2015. Her babies were taken away from her.
> 
> Months later, she was released on “parole” because her three babies were in critical condition in a hospital. The eldest one died the next day.
> 
> During her second detention, in 2017, she was interrogated for four days and four nights without any sleep.
> 
> During her third detention, in 2018, she witnessed nine deaths of fellow inmates within nine months. She was tortured so badly that she begged the guards to kill her.
> 
> She was eventually released so that she could take her children to Egypt, but she was ordered to return to China.
> 
> Tursun struggled very hard between a desire to speak out about her experiences, and a guilty feeling that if she didn’t go back to China, her family there could be arrested and tortured.




I  really don't understand why the world does nothing about what is Nazi Germany 2018 - CHINA
The less we do the greater the chance that this is what will be happening to Australians in a decade or two's time.
At least tell everyone you reasonably can.  It's upsetting but silence leads to a hell of a lot worse than staring this down

https://www.theepochtimes.com/globa...g-end-mass-internment-of-uyghurs_2725889.html


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## CanOz

*A Great Shift Unseen Over the Last Forty Years*





	

		
			
		

		
	
 China Change
1 week ago


Xiang Songzuo, December 28, 2018

_On Dec. 16, Prof. Xiang Songzuo (向松祚) of Renmin University School of Finance and former chief economist of China Agriculture Bank, gave a 25-minute speech during a CEO class at Renmin Business School that was apparently applauded by the audience but immediately censored over the Chinese internet. Singling out 2018 as the year when China comes to a large shift unprecedented over the past 40 years, the speech can be seen as a landscape survey of Chinese economy, and obliquely, also of politics. Just as Tsinghua law professor Xu Zhangrun’s (许章润) broadside “Imminent Fears, Immediate Hopes”, which was superbly translatedand widely talked about among China watchers, Prof. Xiang’s speech is another rare burst of Chinese intellectuals’ discontent with the direction the country is taking under Xi Jinping. With this unauthorized translation of the speech, China Change wishes our readers a happy New Year!_ — The Editors


_





I want to share two characters with my fellow alumni here. I hope that everyone present, every entrepreneur here, can reflect together with me. These two characters are fan si (反思, reflect). What do we reflect on?

China’s economy has been going downward this year, as everyone knows. The year 2018 is an extraordinary year for us, with so many things taking place. But the main thing is the economic slowdown.

How bad are things? The number that China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) gives is 6.5 percent, but just yesterday, a research group of an important institution released an internal report. Can you take a guess on the GDP growth rate that they came up with using the NBS data?

They used two measurements. Going by the first estimate, China’s GDP growth this year was about 1.67 percent. And according to the other calculation, the growth rate was negative.

Of course, my main point here is not about the accuracy of these calculations, or which one is more credible. But this year, there have been three issues regarding China that we either failed to consider, or about which we have made serious misjudgments.

First, the trade war between China and the U.S.. Did we make some inaccurate assessment? Did we underestimate the severity of the situation? Let’s recall some slogans from the mainstream media at the beginning of the year: “In the trade war between U.S. and China, the Americans are lifting rocks only to smash them on their own feet, China is sure to win.” “China will win the trade war without a doubt, be the battles big or small.”

What’s behind this kind of thinking? To this day, we keep suffering from a cognitive dissonance between our understanding of the Sino-U.S. trade war and the international reality. This calls for deep reflection.

Second, what was the cause for the economic downturn? Why did private enterprises suffer setbacks in 2018? Looking at the data, investment by private businesses has dropped substantially, so what made private business owners lose confidence? On November 1, the national leaders convened a high-profile economic conference, which some interpreted as a signal that the government wants to win back the confidence of private businesses as the economy worsens.

Since the beginning of the year, though, all kinds of ideological statements have been thrown around: statements like “private property will be eliminated,” “private ownership will eventually be abolished if not now,” “it’s time for the private enterprises to fade away,” or “all private companies should be turned over to their workers.” Then there was this high-profile study of Marx and the Communist Manifesto. Remember that line in the Communist Manifesto? Abolition of private property. What kind of signal do you think this sends to private entrepreneurs?

This is why we need to reflect on China’s economic downturn, the pressure on Chinese economy, and the trade war between the U.S. and China that is escalating with every passing day. We need to reflect on what we did wrong, on how to revive the economy as we walk into the future, and what steps we should take to ensure that China’s economy maintains its steady rate of growth.








You might not agree with what I say, and please feel free to give your opinions. But I hope that you can think in a sober manner after we finish today’s seminar. Why do I say this? Because the problems that we face are our own doing, and there are a lot of them. But many of them have been addressed in superficial terms only.

At the symposium on the private sector, General Secretary Xi Jinping talked about six issues. Among them I am most concerned about the sixth: the protection of personal safety and property. Think about it. In a country with robust rule of law, where everyone is equal before the law, shouldn’t these basic rights be properly guaranteed for everyone, entrepreneurs and  commoners alike?

It has been four decades since the reform and opening up, yet the General Secretary still feels a need to specifically promote entrepreneurs’ rights to personal safety and the security of their property. This reflects the gravity of the issues facing the governance of Chinese society and state. In my view, China’s economy will face six internal challenges that deserve our serious consideration. Due to time constraints, I won’t be able to get through all of them.

In addition to this, there are three major external challenges. The first is the trade war, which is in fact no longer a trade war but rather a clash between two opposed value systems. It can be said with certainty that the Sino-U.S. relationship has come to a crossroads right now and faces significant historic challenges. What are we to do? To be honest, I don’t think we have really found much of a solution.

You are aware that Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou was recently detained in Vancouver. In the past two days, mainstream media such as BBC and CNN have been reporting on how the U.S. is going at Huawei on all fronts. What this tells us is that this issue is not simply about trade or economics.

We used to speak of “China’s period of strategic opportunity for economic growth.” Does this period of strategic opportunity still exist? Personally, looking at the international situation, I think this period of strategic opportunity is fading quick.








Let’s think about what “international period of strategic opportunity” means. It means that in the past, international regulations have been favorable to us; we had open access to technology, capital, talent, and markets. Because of the imminent changes we face on the domestic and international fronts, I have titled today’s speech “the great shift unseen over the last forty years.” (四十年未有之大变局)

Have we really given the problems due consideration? Of course the short-term problem we are looking at is economic decline; the preponderance of data demonstrating this point needs no introduction here. Data concerning performance in November hasn’t been released, but you can extrapolate based on the October figures: there’s been a decline across virtually all sectors, from consumption in retail, autos, or real estate. Just look at China’s exports. Who can say that the trade war didn’t impact China and that China is sure to win the war no matter how big it is? Why don’t the people who were saying this kind of thing in April and May stand by their words now?

Why did we made such mistakes in assessing the international circumstances?

Look at these numbers. That China faces a long-term economic downturn is not a problem by itself. But you may have noticed that the consumption and the service sectors now make up 78.5 percent of GDP. Going by the government’s logic, this should be a good thing, since it means the economic transition to a consumption economy has been successful: we used to rely on investment and export, now we rely on consumption and the service sector. This sounds reasonable, but think about it: in a country like China, as investment slows dramatically, how can we maintain economic stability by solely relying on consumption?

The fact that consumption and services comprise 78.5 percent of GDP may be good news to some extent, but is far eclipsed by the negative implications. Take a look at investment. More importantly, can consumption alone support faster economic growth?

In the four decades following the economic reform, we have undergone five phases of consumption. The first was to solve the food problem, the second was the “New Big Three” [新三大件, short for refrigerator, color TV, and washing machine], the third was the consumption of information, the fourth was automobiles, and fifth was real estate.

But these five waves have essentially all come to an end. Car sales have dropped sharply and real estate spending is also substantially decreasing, so we are facing serious problems. This is the crux of the six stabilities called for by the Politburo [stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment and stable expectations], or as some internet users have joked, the six “tender kisses” [吻, kiss, is a homophone for 稳, stability].

Now, let me give you three more “kisses”: stable reserves, stable exchange rates, and stable housing prices.

It should be fairly obvious that these stabilities are difficult to achieve. For now it looks that “stable foreign investment” and “stable foreign exchange rates” shouldn’t be a problem. Foreign investment is basically stable. But how can you stabilize investment, exports, real estate market, and employment? The reason that I want to share the word “reflect” with everyone today is that we need to reflect on why this happened, and on how to find an appropriate solution.

As economy slows, financial risk escalates and shadow banking shrinks rapidly. Some say that the president of China’s central bank has come out to apologize, saying that their prior policy was not well thought out, lacked coordination, and wasn’t properly implemented, that these, coupled with the effects of overbearing regulations, caused credit to recede. This is certainly an important reason, but it’s not the fundamental issue.

We can see that the direct financing market, whether the bonds or stock market, has been cut in half in 2018 and that many companies have defaulted. Total debt due to default has exceeded 100 billion RMB ($14.5 billion) for the first three quarters.

According to data provided by the government, the corporate debt default could exceed 120 billion RMB, and many businesses have gone bankrupt. As Cao Dewang (曹德旺) put it, companies are collapsing in droves; not even state-owned enterprises are spared this phenomenon. Bohai Steel, once listed in the Fortune Global 500, was 192 billion RMB in debt when it bankrupted; the real number could be as high as 280 billion RMB.

Local debt is a big problem in China’s financial market. As for the actual number, the National Audit Office claims it to be about 17.8 trillion RMB, while He Keng (贺铿), vice director of National People’s Congress Financial and Economic Affairs Committee, thinks it’s over 40 trillion RMB. Worse yet, not one local government intends to pay back its debts.

So this is the larger context. Then there’s also the stock market crash. My friend Mr. Jin Yanshi  (金岩石) will share with you shortly his thoughts about an impending stock market rebound, but in my opinion, it’s far from forthcoming. You can look at the history: only the Wall Street Crash of 1929 can compare to the steep decline that the Chinese stock has experienced this year. Many stocks are down 80 or even 90 percent.

So here’s a problem that we need to think about today: we know China’s stock market is feeling the pain, but what exactly is hurting?

Some people blame the securities regulators, Chairman Liu (刘主席), or this and that, but I think they are going after the wrong people. The problem lies in regulatory policy, which I fear may be lacking. The absence of comprehensive stock regulation might be an important issue, but it’s not the crucial one.

Look at our profit structure. To put it plainly, China’s listed companies don’t really make money. Then who has taken the few profits made by China’s more than 3,000 listed companies? Two-thirds have been taken by the banking sector and real estate. The profits earned by 1,444 listed companies on the SME board and growth enterprise board are not even equal to one and half times the profit of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. How can this kind of stock market become a bull market?

When we buy stocks, we are buying the profits of the company, not hype and rumors. I recently read a report comparing the profits of China’s listed companies with those in the U.S. There are many U.S. public companies with tens of billions dollars in profits. How many Chinese tech and manufacturing companies are there that have accomplished this? There is only one, but it’s not listed, and you all know which one that is. [Xiang is referring to Huawei, the Chinese tech company.] What does this tell us? As Yale professor Robert Shiller said: stock market performance may not work as a barometer of the economy in the short run, but it does for sure in the long run.

So I think that the terrible stock performance only demonstrates one thing, which is that the real economy in China is in quite a mess. Where is the stock market rebound? I think it’s obvious that investor confidence has yet to recover.

A number of policies came out on October 19 and 20, and Vice Premier Liu He (刘鹤) personally gave a speech to pledge results, but what of it now? The SSE Index fell to 2600 points by last Friday, and just stayed there, barely alive. When is the market rebound coming? Real estate is not showing much cause for optimism right now, but I won’t go into details for lack of time. You can take a picture of the data for your reference.

That’s why China wants to fight the three tough battles. China’s economic decline indicates that there is a major issue with the focus on expansion and growth:  It has deviated from the fundamental and moved to speculation. These are the words of former chief of China’s central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan (周小川).

What are our current financial risks? They are hidden, complex, acute, contagious, and malevolent. Structural imbalance are massive, and violations of law and regulations are rampant. There are black swans to prevent, and gray rhinos to stop. A reporter once asked Zhou, “Where are the black swans? Which ones?” Zhou smiled and did not answer.

The black swans are right next to you. The P2P lending, blockchain, Coin Circle, aren’t all these black swans? But you can’t see them. As for the gray rhinos, they can charge at any time. The biggest of them is real estate.

We have rampant speculations everywhere, in too many aspects. In short, it’s arbitrage.

During the national finance work conference last year, the General Secretary and the Premier strongly criticized the Chinese financial sector with a pile of literary-sounding polemics, saying that they were entertaining themselves without the slightest consideration for reality, and that the financial sector was in chaos and was a horrible sight to behold.

Apart from this financial arbitrage, what do most businesses do with their money? Forty percent of it goes to the stock market, speculation, and buying stocks of financial companies, but not investment into primary business. Then can this be considered a good situation for listed businesses? You can say goodbye to the equity pledges, game over. As an economist, I am opposed to the government bailing out the market. If stock pledges collapse, let it be: what’s the point in bailing them out? What are you doing using stock pledges for other purposes anyway? What did you do with the loans you get from stock pledges?

I’m acquainted with many bosses of listed companies. Frankly speaking, a large part of their equity pledge funds did not go into their primary business, but used on speculation. They have many tricks. They buy financial products; they buy housing. The government said listed companies have spent 1-2 trillions on speculative real estate. Basically China’s economy is all built on speculation, and everything is over leveraged.

Starting in 2009, China embarked on this path of no return. The leverage ratio has soared sharply. Our current leverage ratio is three times that of the United States and twice that of Japan. The debt ratio of non-financial companies is the highest in the world, not to mention real estate.

Having shared all this data with you, shouldn’t we be arriving at a conclusion now?

“The swallows come back every three years.” [This is a reference to the three years of RMB growth between 2005 and 2008.] Now they are back again. The economic decline has created a lot of pressure, so now the government brings back its old set of tricks: relaxed currency regulations, aggressive monetary policies, relaxed financial policies, and aggressive capital financing policy.

But now I want to ask a question. Everyone in the audience is an alumnae of Renda business school and capable of thinking independently, so give it some thought: Will these policies work? Can they solve China’s fundamental problems? It’s not that our currency regulation this year was not relaxed enough—we released 400 billion yuan in liquidity, 2.3 trillion yuan in hedging or medium-term lending facilities. 2.3 trillion times the money multiplier is about a dozen or so trillion.

Three monetary policy “arrows” have been fired, also known as “Bank Chief Yi’s three arrows.” The first is loans, the second is issuing debts, the third is to solve the problem of stock pledges. Even more mind-blowing was the “125 Target.” [Guo Shuqing (郭树清), CCP committee secretary of the People’s Bank of China and chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said in November that banks’ lending to private companies need to meet the “125 Target,” which means that in new corporate loans, the big banks should issue no less than one-third of the loans to private firms, medium and small banks should issue no less than two-third of the loans to private firms, and in three years the goal is for banks to lend no less than 50 percent of its loans to private enterprises among their loans to new companies.]

We recently went to the Pearl River Delta and some other regions to conduct field research, and locals told us that the local officials invited the bank chiefs over to meetings and told them which banks to turn to for loans. What is this nonsense?

So we need to reflect on our current problems: can these policies of ours solve the deeper issues?

As for the debt-for-equity swap, the capital market has issued many policies but I don’t see any of them will really be useful. It’s been another two months since October 19, have they been effective? So we have to ask ourselves: What has really gone wrong with our economy?

My own reflection has reached its conclusion: The problem with the Chinese economy is no longer speed or quantity, but quality.

The official report of the 19th Party Congress is an excellent report. So is the report of the Third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress. All of these major decisions were beautifully written and made all the right points. Sadly, they have not been followed through. The structural problems we face as a country, the “Six Big Imbalances,” are not sufficiently addressed. Think about it, entrepreneurs and alumni of Renda business school in the audience, can any radical credit policy or monetary easing solve these problems?

Moreover, these credit and monetary policies can only make short-term adjustments that are incapable of fundamentally solving the “imbalances” I mentioned earlier. We are still trapped within the box of the old policy and the old way of thinking. The key to whether transformation will be successful is the vitality of private enterprises—that is, whether policy can stimulate corporate innovation.

We have been making a game of credit and monetary tools for so many years. Isn’t this the reason we are saddled with so many troubles today? Speculation has driven housing prices sky-high.

The problems that private business actually faces are not difficulties in financing. What is it then? They are afraid of unstable policy and the government not keeping its word.

The leader of the State Council said it clearly in a meeting of the Standing Committee: in China, the government is what can be least trusted. Therefore, in order to solve the debt problem, first, the government has to pay back debts it owes businesses, the state-owned enterprises have to pay back debts they owe private enterprises, and large private enterprises have to pay back debts they owe smaller ones. The three costs keep going up [production cost, transnational cost, and systematic cost], therefore tax cut and fee reduction is the primary appeal.

My basic assessment of the overall issue is that these short-term monetary credit schemes are wholly incapable of solving the problem. For the Chinese economy to continue growing in a truly stable fashion, and extricate itself from its present quagmire, it must implement the following three essential reforms: tax system, reform in the political structure, and reform in state governance.

How to reduce taxes and fees? The structure of the government must be streamlined by cutting large numbers of staff. Personnel must be let go and expenditures have to drop, which means that structural reforms have to be carried out.

Professor Zhou Qiren (周其仁) of Peking University is someone I respect and admire deeply. All these years, he has been saying: what is China’s biggest problem? The costs of societal administration are too high.

Then there are the matters of governmental  reform and reforms in the structure of state governance. Of course, there’s also reform of academia and research.

I hear that the day after tomorrow, there’s going to be a grand conference to mark the 40th anniversary of the “reform and opening up.” I sincerely hope that we’ll hear something about further deepening of reforms at that conference. Let’s wait and see if any real progress can be made on these reforms.

If this doesn’t happen, let me conclude on these words: the Chinese economy is going to be in for long-term and very difficult times.


More information about Prof. Xiang Songzuo can be found here. 
_


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## notting




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## notting

China's belt and road 'vision' is a failure


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## daytradeprofit

notting said:


> China's belt and road 'vision' is a failure




https://www.daytrade-profit.com/2019/02/is-it-buy-rumor-and-sell-facts.html


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## Ann

I have been watching the Shanghai Composite for years. I held an investment called China Growth Fund. I had no intention of selling it ever. I bought it when it was floated from a friend who was a chartist and an agent for AMP called Peter.  In 2017 it was closed off because of a big investor who voted to get it closed down. Bastard!
Anyway I still keep an eye on it and saw that it was on the rise. I have just started looking at volumes and the EquiVolume chart and I looked at the SSEC EV. Well that was a site to see. I thought the chart had broken until I looked closer. Wednesday February 21 2018 saw a purchase of 1.44 billion shares at around 3200 yuan. That is the kind of money that could keep this index below 3200 forever or it could sell the index up to infinity for a very long time.

This is what the EquiVolume chart looks like, it looks very broken, it is not! Look at the date on the bottom of the chart....


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## notting

Ann said:


> I have been watching the Shanghai Composite for years. I held an investment called China Growth Fund. I had no intention of selling it ever. I bought it when it was floated from a friend who was a chartist and an agent for AMP called Peter.  In 2017 it was closed off because of a big investor who voted to get it closed down. Bastard!
> View attachment 92536




That thing traded for ages higher than book value and it was right to take the difference.  They should have done it earlier.  It was managed appallingly ~ at AMP standards that is.


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## Ann

notting said:


> That thing traded for ages higher than book value and it was right to take the difference.  They should have done it earlier.  It was managed appallingly ~ at AMP standards that is.



I wouldn't argue with you notting but I bought into it at the float, so there was no history and I wanted to hold an A-shares China fund. I didn't do too badly, not great but not burned either. It would have been a nice little ride up recently if it hadn't been closed as it followed the SSEC. I have a great faith in China and its growth potential and want to have a permanent Index holding . There was really nothing else to choose from at the time or even recently until now with CNEW but I think there may be some weakness with a potential buying op coming up for CNEW. May be wrong of course.


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## rederob

This thread was started over 10 years ago.
A lot of people have gravely miscalculated China.
I take my 5th visit to China in 12 years in August.
I agree there are many things that happen in China that are unsavoury, but here we are with our first peoples amongst the unhealthiest in the world.
I would much rather be a minority group in China than an indigenous Australian.


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## notting

This is a classic debate that show how naive and stupid the arm chair economists, intellectuals and talking heads are about China.
They are talking down to a bloke who actually knows what is going on because he deals  with the c)nts
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/...ate-china-trade-with-a-wharton-professor.html


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## rederob

notting said:


> This is a classic debate that show how naive and stupid the arm chair economists, intellectuals and talking heads are about China.
> They are talking down to a bloke who actually knows what is going on because he deals  with the c)nts
> https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/...ate-china-trade-with-a-wharton-professor.html



China continues at a GDP pace well ahead of most of the world.
The USA has no competitive advantage, and continues to isolate itself from the rest of the world.  It is doing its best to lose friends and influence.
Not sure what armchair economists you are talking about, so maybe you have missed the last 30 years of China's remarkable development.


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## notting

Of course the Chinese don't understand they are slaves to their rulers with all the propaganda they are force fed as soon as they can understand Mandarin.
They haven't heard a thing about how they were slain with machine guns by their dictators The CCP in Tienanmen Square and  run over by tanks.






Then round up and shot along with their families







Intellectuals tortured and ridiculed in the streets, just for being able to think.
If the crowds they were paraded  infront of did not hit them or abuse them enough they'd be next.








The Chinese even make sport evil - Getting her  legs ready for the Olympics just one in thoughsands of children brutalised for Communist thug pride -






Nor do they show you how the Chinese economy really progesses on the back of Chinese and invaded countries slave labor camps -







The real map of China not the fake one that they show you-






Here's to China's progress -


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## rederob

notting said:


> Of course the Chinese don't understand they are slaves to their rulers with all the propaganda they are force fed as soon as they can understand Mandarin.



If people want history lessons they can do better than read your crap.


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## notting

Even a person with half a brain can figure out via inference the true history.

Lets take Hong Kong for example - Full of Chinese.  

You'd imagine they would be delighted to be incorporated back into the fold of mainland China if there was something true or good about 'China,' for them.
NOPE.
They utterly reject the lie of The Chinese Communist Parties history now being fed to them by the pig thug dictatorship that has brainwashed all the mainlanders who know no better from birth.  The Hong Kong Chinese hate the 'mainland dogs.'  The Hong Kong Chinese can't stand what is now being imposed on them.
The Hong Kong Chinese are resisting the Chinese Communist Parties self serving lies about history. 
Why?
The Hong Kong Chinese weren't subjected to the The Chinese Communist Parties propaganda because they were protected by the Brits and had access to international news and free press. So they naturally SEE THROUGH the Chinese Communist Parties lies about it's appalling history of inhumane brutality and economic blundering and plundering of China and the Chinese over whom the rule.

Now these Hong Kong Chinese are free of British rule but they do not want to be ruled by the lying Chinese Communist Party thugs.  Fancy that!!! 
They'd rather the British system remained.

The Hong Kong Chinese are naturally protesting, largely in vein, about the propaganda now being imposed on them in their schools and everywhere else.  
These  courageous Hong Kong Chinese who have the courage to resist The Chinese Communist Party fake history and blatant lies call themselves the yellow umbrella movement.  When you have no free speech you know you are being lied to.  All you have ever had access to is the Chinese Communist Parties dictation of lies.  It's that simple.

Oh yes about a dozen of these Hong Kong Chinese yellow umbrella leaders have just been jailed by The Communist Chinese Party thugs in an ongoing attempt to shut them up and bury the truth and the real HISTORY to hide their ongoing lies and crimes against the Chinese people.

Taiwan? - SAME!!  

The last thing Taiwan Chinese want is the rule of Chinese Communist Party telling them what progress is.  
Oh and both Hong Kong and the Taiwan Chinese economies have been far richer per capita than the mainland is now and has been historically as the Chinese Communist Party caused the unbearable suffering and horrors of famines, poverty, starvation and even culls of the Chinese citizens enslaved by the Chinese Communist Parties dictatorship and propaganda.

The so called miracle of the Chinese being raised out of poverty, on the mainland, is nothing other than the Chinese Communist Party cleaning up some of the mess they created!!! The Chinese people, whom they dictated over, would never have been poor in the first place if it wasn't for the Chinese Communist Party.  That's not out pacing the rest of the world at all, far from it.  
There is still more mainland Chinese living in poverty than not, because of the Chinese Communist Parties horrendous self serving thuggery and blundering monstrous history.

Taiwan and Hong Kong did not suffer that because they were not dictated to by the Thug Pig Chinese Communist Party.
HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## rederob

notting said:


> Even a person with half a brain can figure out via inference the true history.



They would be better off reading it for themselves than from you.
I could selectively write about how the USA has, and continues to screw over nations that are not democracies, Cuba being one at its doorstep.  Or how the USA intervened in Iraq via a false WMD claim, and turned that country into a political, religious and economic basket case.  Or how its sabre rattling overnight led to the partial evacuation of the US embassy in Iraq.
And when it comes to persecutions for true history, the USA's relentless pursuit of Julian Assange and other whistleblowers speaks volumes for how they deal with those who expose their grubby underbelly.


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## notting

United States allows for free speech, freedom of the press and pretty much everything politcal.
Anyone can run for president and shake the place up if THE PEOPLE want it enough, even Donald Trump.
The difference is immeasurable.
Australian, New Zealand and over a hundred other democracies are even better.
Asange was nothing more than an attention seeking brat willing to sell out anyone or anything for attention. He tried to pose a bastion of transparency which was total BS.
He became a Russian pawn.
Hacking is illegal and should be punished according to the laws, so is rape a crime, which is an accusation not being made the the US.  Assange will be tried according to the laws in two different countries.
Asange put himself in self imposed exile to avoid a trial.  That is what a guilty feeling bloke does!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is no rule of law in China. The trials are a farce and over 99% get convicted.  That's not a trial!

Simple example-




Note the inclement unquestioned even promoted racism of the everyday brainwashed Chinese.
The Han Chinese, when abroad, accuse people of racism at the drop of a hat even for extortion purposes, whilst being the most racist inbred psychopaths on earth.  They are so brainwashed that when they live in other countries they still think all the western media is propaganda.  That is what is dictated to them from birth.
But if Chinese person living, studding or traveling in another country does start to wise up and tries to do something then all their closest relatives are jailed and tortured back in mainland China by the CCP dictators, so they can't speak anywhere.  Oh, and this does not happen in America............


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## rederob

notting said:


> United States allows for free speech, freedom of the press and pretty much everything politcal.



True, they have the wonderful Fox news channel, and social media sites that espouse more conspiracies than any sane person could ever imagine.
The USA's history of involvement in wars is legion.  Better yet is its government's honesty with its populace.
It is true that China has a policing system and judiciary supporting the State.  But then when you call the police for help you do not expect to get shot dead, and then have to confront the courts for justice.
These are somewhat incidental to China's economic power, which pundits have canned for decades, and have the credibility of Australia's pollsters.
Yes, China will at some point fall from economic grace, but I cannot see it on the horizon right now.


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## notting

Fox news is obviously biased for republicans as is CNN for democrats.  They are not state owned like all the  media dictated to in China.

The problem with the brainwashed psychopathic Han Chinese is that they have no concept of the 'social contract' that all of us in the free world and most other places naturally have.  We won't and don't behave in certain ways simple because we have values and standards of decency.
The Chinese don't have such a sense of decency they in mainland China they are bullied into obedience otherwise they will do anything and every thing psychopath will do.
They keep debating with you in a thread like this because they have no sense of the grotesqueness of what they are representing.  They think you would do exactly what they do if you were in their position. They convince themselves and are brainwashed into thinking that all other counties are the same or worse

If you watched Sixty Minutes tonight.  You should have noted how the Chinese developer who was just a foreman type was going to go back and beat the Australians with an iron bar.  It was his Fijii accomplices that talked the Chinese guy out of doing what the Han Chinese little prick thought was the natural next thing to do to the Australians he was destroying.




One of the nations China has quietly invaded whilst the world was looking the other way is East Turkistan.  It should enrage all of us that the world media refers to them as minority groups when in fact they are occupied peoples in their own countries and not Chinese at all!
This is just a light tastes what they to to the people in the countries they invade ~ Oh and they have plans for Australia and New Zealand

Here is the concentration camps and their progress ~


















What happens in the concentration camps


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> Fox news is obviously biased for republicans as is CNN for democrats.  They are not state owned like all the  media dictated to in China.



Same difference - news is not worth a cracker.
This thread is, however, about China's "bull run."
You should create a new topic and see how many are interested in your propaganda.
If you want to see how a nation destroys people rather than kill them, head off to Nauru.


----------



## notting

No freedom of speech is the most valuable thing a country can have.
It is the foundation of democracy, freedom and free determination.
It seems you can't tell the difference between truth that is as plane as day and CCP Lies.
Here is how the Chinese Communist Party silences and cleanses the the few good Chinese left ~


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> No freedom of speech is the most valuable thing a country can have.
> It is the foundation of democracy, freedom and free determination.
> It seems you can't tell the difference between truth that is as plane as day and CCP Lies.
> Here is how the Chinese Communist Party silences and cleanses the the few good Chinese left ~



Personal liberty is the foundation of all good societies.
Freedom of speech allows stupid people to say stupid things, and equally stupid people will believe them.  That was evidenced in media reporting throughout the recent election campaign.  It was also evidenced at this site.
Is there a reason you cannot post on topic?  Or do you prefer to demonstrate by example what I suggest is problematic with free speech?


----------



## notting

In Steps the Chinese Communist Party.



It takes only three generations to domesticate wild animals.
It takes only three generations to make wild animals from domesticated animals
It takes only three generations to make a nation of psychopaths by cleansing the good ones if you have enough power over the people.
China has been doing it for about 5000 years. 
Hence the purest possible Han Psychopathic State evolved.
Note how the cops have no hesitation to brutalize the clearly innocent and peaceful.
Psychopaths enjoy it regardless of whether it is right or wrong, the Chinese enjoy it.


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> It takes only three generations to domesticate wild animals.



Again, nothing on topic.
I think you need to take your ideas elsewhere.


----------



## notting

Hence Trump finally standing up to China is utterly justified.
It will have huge consequences for China's economy and Australia
It's the most relevant topic for all of us
Clive Palmer may look like an idiot but he has done a lot of business with China.
Idiots when entering business tend not to make a lot of money
Clive Palmer couldn't give a rats toss about winning the election. He used it as a platform to warn us, because the major parties could not, given our dependence on Chinese trade.
In his own words "I am a national treasure!" When you understand what he did you understand that too.
HE KNOWS ~


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> Hence Trump finally standing up to China is utterly justified.
> It will have huge consequences for China's economy and Australia
> It's the most relevant topic for all of us
> Clive Palmer may look like an idiot but he has done a lot of business with China.
> Idiots when entering business tend not to make a lot of money
> Clive Palmer couldn't give a rats toss about winning the election. He used it as a platform to warn us, because the major parties could not, given our dependence on Chinese trade.
> In his own words "I am a national treasure!" When you understand what he did you understand that too.



Trump is a buffoon.
US industry is paying the tariffs, not China.  US consumers are the ultimate losers.
Trump fails to understand that the USA can't compete on cost of labour or materials with China, so if they try to produce what China presently supplies, then US consumers will be even harder hit.   
China's Belt & Road strategy is providing it with massive new markets, so any losses from the US imbroglio are going to be absorbed elsewhere.
If Australia wants to compete for business in future it should now be developing renewable energy resources and creating a hydrogen export economy with the rest of the world.  No other country has our capacity for using land areas for renewable energy generation.


----------



## notting

Trumps standing up to China's economic warfare on the rest of the  world is bipartisan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is also going to garner support internationally.



You don't have to compete.  You take away the inhumane slave edge that the Chinese dictators have exploited for decades with tariffs to start with - encouraging manufacturing out of there.
China has been exporting deflation for decades along with it and currency manipulation.  It's more of a risk to the the global economy than inflation which isn't a risk in the current climate.
There is no doubt the fall of China's economy will cause a lot of harm and irruptions globally but that's life we will get through it.

Other places will take up the slack and destroy China's slave labour impoverishment and exportation of poverty to the rest of the world, as will Robots!!
China's model is starting to fail. They are desperate to win the Tech race.
You can't lead the way in tech and innovation when your entire culture is based on theft and stealing it from the leaders and true innovators in the other countries.

China can't win HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> Trumps standing up to China's economic warfare on the rest of the  world is bipartisan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> It is also going to garner support internationally.



I think you need to get out more.
Maybe you don't read what happens in the news, but Trump's actions are not supported by the rest of the world which prefers to abide by the WTO's principles.


----------



## HelloU

rederob said:


> Personal liberty is the foundation of all good societies.
> Freedom of speech allows stupid people to say stupid things, and equally stupid people will believe them.  That was evidenced in media reporting throughout the recent election campaign.  It was also evidenced at this site.
> Is there a reason you cannot post on topic?  Or do you prefer to demonstrate by example what I suggest is problematic with free speech?



it may have been widely reported that Shorten would win but that does not make people stupid who believed it ........ just turns out the earlier polls did not have a large enough sample size. 

when peeps say china ..... i think spratleys, and ask what they would do about it.


----------



## notting

rederob said:


> I think you need to get out more.
> Maybe you don't read what happens in the news, but Trump's actions are not supported by the rest of the world which prefers to abide by the WTO's principles.




You need to learn to think for yourself.
The big players are FINALLY literally doing what I have been saying needs to be done to China for about 15 years.
It's awesome and well overdue.  This thread is a testimony to it
WATCH..............................................


----------



## rederob

HelloU said:


> it may have been widely reported that Shorten would win but that does not make people stupid who believed it ........ just turns out the earlier polls did not have a large enough sample size.



I never suggested anything like that and I reported the betting odds that were being published.  I differentiate the presentation of actual information from media which creates their preferred version of events.  Check my posts - they confirm how I use information and regularly provide links to sources.
As to your idea about sample size, I regret that you are wrong.  Sample sizes are relevant to the extent they are representative.  However, they then need to ask they ask the right questions of the right cohort, and the recent polls did not.  I was polled 3 times, so I have a pretty good idea of what happened.


HelloU said:


> when peeps say china ..... i think spratleys, and ask what they would do about it.



You mean, like Cyprus or las Malvinas, and literally dozens more examples I could cite.


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> You need to learn to think for yourself.



You should make informed comments and not baseless assumptions.


notting said:


> The big players are FINALLY literally doing what I have been saying needs to be done to China for about 15 years.
> It's awesome and well overdue. This thread is a testimony to it



This thread is testament to you not appreciating the China bull is still running.
I give you credit for holding a line for 15 years and never catching a fish.


----------



## HelloU

when i say spratleys i mean the spratleys.  what would peeps do about them? (right now as it is happening i mean - not some inquiry in 20 years time investigating what happened in 2019)

....to talk about all those other places would be off topic for the thread and just invite nasty personal comments from posters, but agree that labor voters are not stupid.


----------



## satanoperca

Notting, as just an observer, if you have been at this thread for so long, can you provide me with some guidance as to your resolve with this threads subject line :

Under what parameters do you define the end of the China bull run? How will you define that it has ended, things that can be universally measured.


----------



## notting

End of the China Bull?
It's a question.
Is that enough or do I need to explain more?

I thought so.

It means - Is it the end? It's not saying, it is the end.
Hence participating in such a thread suggests analysis not a fait accompli.



When I first started talking about what China is really about and what they were up to, no one in this country was talking about it.  No one even in the US, apart from Peter Navarro, who I had not heard of and was just a uni lecturer back then.

Now people are getting it and if Trump holds the line it will awesome.
You can't make a deal because a reasonable deal for all would be the end of the China bull.  So these are interesting times indeed!!


----------



## rederob

HelloU said:


> when i say spratleys i mean the spratleys.  what would peeps do about them? (right now as it is happening i mean - not some inquiry in 20 years time investigating what happened in 2019)



Except it's not just China disputing the Spratley Islands is it?  You forgot about Vietnam and Taiwan.
You seem also to forget ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea region involving both island and maritime claims among Brunei, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> When I first started talking about what China is really about and what they were up to, no one in this country was talking about it.  No one even in the US, apart from Peter Navarro, who I had not heard of and was just a uni lecturer back then.
> 
> Now people are getting it and if Trump holds the line it will awesome.
> You can't make a deal because a reasonable deal for all would be the end of the China bull.  So these are interesting times indeed!!



I started talking online about China at Commsec's trading forums 20 years ago, and then at Incredible Charts over 15 years ago.  Way back then I was calling the China bull naysayers ill informed, and I say that still.
You are nothing more than a propagandist who seems incapable of distilling an argument and relies on disaffected populists for your material.
China might not have a good human rights record, but Australia is no Robinson Crusoe.
China does have a strong economy, and the question remains, when is it likely to end?
Remember too that China withstood the GFC, unlike the bastion of the free world.  So it seems to be a lot smarter than people like you suggest.


----------



## HelloU

rederob said:


> Except it's not just China disputing the Spratley Islands is it?  You forgot about Vietnam and Taiwan.
> You seem also to forget ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea region involving both island and maritime claims among Brunei, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.



 lol. china are building brand new islands so they can claim territory in the sth china sea using international law - they are doing this right now. china is building islands on top of coral reefs. They are then putting people on those islands with guns telling others to keep away as this is now chinese land. 

onlookers can either do nothing, or they can do something.


----------



## rederob

HelloU said:


> lol. china are building brand new islands so they can claim territory in the sth china sea using international law - they are doing this right now. china is building islands on top of coral reefs. They are then putting people on those islands with guns telling others to keep away as this is now chinese land.
> 
> onlookers can either do nothing, or they can do something.



They have been doing this for about 10 years that I recall. 
These are "disputed" claims amongst many nations, so what is your point?
The islands and reefs that have undergone recent construction are shown with a white ring.
Coloured rings show occupation by *China*,the *Philippines*, *Malaysia*, *Vietnam *or *Taiwan*.





Maybe the Chinese got the idea from the USA?




It's what the USA did to have a strategic position in the Indian Ocean (through Diego Garcia pictured above) so they could bomb the Middle East whenever they felt the need.


----------



## HelloU

when i come across things that i do not like i sometimes just turn away ............


----------



## rederob

HelloU said:


> when i come across things that i do not like i sometimes just turn away ............



Perhaps do not start what you are not prepared to finish.


----------



## HelloU

i reckon the chinese will finish, some say they have watched this island building chinese expansion for 10 years .........


----------



## History Repeats

lol at recent few pages. Gordon chang is that you? notting


----------



## notting

Xi is starting the long march, again!
Sounds a like a reset to me.
*The template is broken.*
Trust me, YOU DON'T want another Long march.




This is what the real long march was like, not the CCP propaganda ~


> *Truth Behind the Long March*
> It is hard to call the Long March a great victory, The Communist Army was largely on the run and when it fought a battle it was usually defeated, suffering huge losses. Many historians think the Chiang Kai-shek allowed the Communist to escape. Six weeks after the Long March began Mao's army was reduced from 86,000 to 30,000 troops at the Battle on Xiang River. At most 15,000 died; the rest fled.
> 
> Many of the reported events of the Long Mrach, it seems, never happened or were exaggerated. The Luding Bridge incident appears to be a complete fabrication. There were no Nationalist troops at the bridge and there was no battle: only a skirmish with no casualties. The local warlord, who controlled the bridge and hated Chiang Kai-shek, let Mao's army pass and was later made a minister in the Communist government.
> 
> Many questions have been raised about the original story line. The distance covered now appeared to have been 6000 miles not 8000 miles and some question whether it lasted until 1936.
> 
> Mao's role in the Long March was often inaccurately reported. It has often beem claimed that he walked the entire 6,000 mile distance but in fact he was carried much of the way on a litter by porters and used the time to read. While Mao's troops suffered huge losses, not a single senior party member was killed or even seriously wounded.
> 
> The Long March was third longer than was necessary as Mao dragged the Red Army in a huge loop so he could go near the Soviet border to receive arms because the Soviets said that whoever made first contact with them would be recognized as the leader of the Chinese Communist Party.
> 
> It also appears not all the participants of the Long March were enthusiastic volunteers. Some were press ganged captives. Sun Shuyun, author of a book on the Long March, interviewed one man who said he was barely into his teens when he was forced to join the Red Army and he only did so because his father was arrested and would not be released until the man agreed to join the army. The man thought of deserting but stayed on because he feared being caught and executed.
> 
> Driven by desperation and hunger, the armies took hostages for ransom. Purges continued until there were practicably no officers left to command battles




Read this if you want to really understand the glories of the Chinese Communist Party
*Mao: The Unknown Story*


----------



## notting

China is now terrified of Steve Bannon 
Why?
He gets it.
Wonder who fed him


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> Read this if you want to really understand the glories of the Chinese Communist Party



Would actually like something original, on topic, and not propaganda.


----------



## notting

Never has this thread ever been more relevant or utterly on topic.
The world has caught up to it!!

https://www.amazon.com.au/s?k=Mao:+The+Unknown+Story&rh=n:2496751051&_encoding=UTF8


----------



## HelloU

rederob said:


> Would actually like something original, on topic, and not propaganda.



OT china bull
(my head says then ignore the post, or post up your own info .....whatevs ....... peeps can post all they want but if the purpose of the post is just to slap others down then why bother ......)


----------



## notting




----------



## rederob

notting said:


> Never has this thread ever been more relevant or utterly on topic.
> The world has caught up to it!!



You are truly delusional .
This linked article is almost 10 years old, and suggests many myths about China's USA relationship.  The reality is that since then China has grown stronger, and US dependence on China stronger still.
Some people fall for Fox broadcasts as if they are gospel, but they are some of the poorest commentary available.  
When I began commenting on China around 20 years ago, around half of its GDP was dependent on exports.  Today that figure is down to 20%.  Domestic demand is now crucial to China's ingoing growth, albeit less frenetically.
China is being affected by the current "trade war" but Americans more so, as tariff increases are mostly being passed on to consumers.  If Trump think Americans don't notice  this, he will be in for a rude shock.
This gives a much better picture of my views.


----------



## notting

I'm Just glad
*Xi Jinping calls for ‘New Long March’ amid trade tensions*

It shows the CCP has no confidence and are rallying nationalism to save themselves from The People
So they don't have to do this to them again on a grand scale, which they will -


----------



## notting

State run economics. Here is a typical example of those (NOT) raised out of poverty -
This is the growth - 

It's been going on so long now.
You really have to wonder what will happen to the iron ore price when it all comes to the surface.


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> It's been going on so long now.



Like your posts here which have been proposing an "end" for a very long time.
It's like the broken clock that always gets the time right, but you never know when.


----------



## notting

People think it means a collapse, but I'm not so certain.
You see people think China has 1.6 Billion people, but it's not like that.
There is the Communist party and it's members which comes to about 250 million - that's China.
The rest are serfs and slaves that are expendable.
So there is no great cost if the thing shrinks massively.  They massacre any uprisings and don't help the starving and dying masses.  China inc - 'The CCP' barely wares a cost, they just let it got, mow it down and steal their savings.
The people don't matter.  That's the mistake when most look at the collapse of China.


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> That's the mistake when most look at the collapse of China.



Given there has been no collapse, the mistaken ones are those who see it as imminent.


----------



## notting

rederob said:


> Given there has been no collapse, the mistaken ones are those who see it as imminent.




I tend to agree.

But form the outside world and Ausi miners and so on, it will be viewed as a collapse.

Also for the majority of the Chinese people it has been collapsing since 2016.  The CCP backed companies have stolen all the insurance and retirement money owed to the workers (serfs/slaves) (part of the figures used to fake the 'raised out of poverty' status according to World bank statistics - gone) . The CCP also encouraged the Chinese People (serfs/slaves) to all spend their savings and go into debt buying worthless apartments off the CCP members, telling the people the prices would only go up and that they could sell later on at a profit, - WORTHLESS NOW!.
You see with no freedom of speech or free press, there is no one to give them a different opinion or report the truth.  So they have no idea what is really going on and get totally used and destroyed by Chinese Communist Party inc



And as it gets worse it will look more like this again -


----------



## notting

One of the best overall  soft commentaries about what the Chinese inc really is and how corrupt it is economically and how stupid the rest of the world has been accommodating it -


----------



## notting

> “It’s hard to imagine a complete break of the United States from China or of China from the United States. We are not interested in this, and our American partners are not interested in this. President Trump is my friend and I am convinced he is also not interested in this,” Xi said in Chinese, interpreted into Russian and then translated into English by Reuters.




Seemed  like quite a positive thing to say.
I've had a positive feeling about Xi all along despite what everything looks like.

I am wondering whether Xi and Trump made a secret deal that would make Trump posture as he has in order to force down the hardliners behind the scenes in China inc. To show the hardliners that it was going to be very bad for China if they continue in the way they have.  Getting Trump to make a stand is also showing the hard liners that opening up and genuine reform is in fact the best way to go, which perhaps Xi understands and wants but does not have the support to  implement due to the refusal of the all powerful hardliners to want to give up their monopoly on everything in China. To make great changes there will be disruptions and uncomfortable transforming that will in fact be good for China in the longer term. But short term it is helpfull for Xi to be able to point to the US and say to the hardliners, 'But we have no choice.'

The hardliners only care about their fortunes and their power.  This requires an external enemy to force the change or they could lose even that and be left with a dysfunctional and economically crippled police state.

For the short and medium term pain that the Chinese will have to go through as it reforms and becomes a more responsible global team player rather than a kingdom unto itself, making changes that look as though are being forced upon China is much better for Xi.  If it looked like  all the inevitable disruptions were coming from Xi then the people would blame him rather than external forces.


----------



## notting

HONG KONG — Tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands of protesters marched in Hong Kong on Sunday in a display of anger and fear over a government proposal that would allow extraditions to mainland China.

Organizers said they hoped to draw one of the largest turnouts in years to show the breadth of disagreement with the plan, which has stirred worries about people in Hong Kong, including foreign visitors, being sent to face trial in Communist Party-controlled courts in mainland China.










https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/09/world/asia/hong-kong-extradition-protest.html


----------



## notting

If they turn off the mobile towers *RUN*
Police vans have lined the crowds in response. Protesters booed loudly






Don't worry, we have enough bullets.


----------



## notting

Again tonight.
No, we are Hong Kong
We are the free Chinese People
You the CCP do not represent us.

No, we are not a result of Foreign media interference
We see through your lies.
We have FaceBook we have unfiltered internet
We have free speech, we have eyes, ears and noses
We can see and we know!!

You were not voted by the people
You have no right to make a single decision on our behalf.
We are the people and you are a handful of cowardly dictators.
1.5 million of us. How many must you kill to keep your pathetic
Grandiose obsessions with power in tact?


----------



## notting

*Day three*
Looks like we're going to have to kill all the HK people.
We've done it before there were about 100million Falun Gong practitioners in mainland China
We fixed that!
HK has only 7.5 million.  It's a peace of cake.
Let the noise die down.  Take them away quietly and slowly and fill it up with mainlanders.


----------



## notting

Hong Kong locals, who have the luxury of holding foreign passports, and many of the 100,000 Australians living in the former British colony, woke up on Friday reassessing their future in the city.

Enter the psychopaths - the menacing looking police who were in black, mixing with the local police but far outnumbering them.  Who did not speak English like the HK people can, The Chinese Communist Party and HK dictatorship of course deny they were mainland police.
Then came the beatings, the tear gas, pepper spray, rubber bullets, bean bag shotgun shelling and general chaos. -






"The protests were different than in 2014," says the head of a large Australian corporate in Hong Kong during a conversation in one of the high rises overlooking the city's harbour. "They were peaceful and calm. People seem much angrier now. Having 10 per cent plus of the population turning up for a protest is huge.

"It was a tinderbox already and [opposition to the extradition laws] catalysed people."











At the press conference the next day -
*Hong Kong reporters wear helmets to indoor police press conference to highlight police brutality*


----------



## notting

NOW
What the unbrainwashed Chinese really think of the CCP.
It's not enough to just postpone the extradition bill.
How dare they even consider such and evil lawless imposition on the HK people.
They want their freedoms to stop being eroded as any normal person does.


----------



## notting

*The Chinese Financial System is Full of Lies*
According to Baoshing's most recent regulatory filing, the smallish lender based in Inner-Mongolia, made a $600 million profit in 2017.
It had assets of around $90 billion, non-performing loans were modest — under 2 per cent — and its capital buffers would fit comfortably with the global demands of a Tier1 bank.
Then it collapsed!

The Baoshang collapse totally contradicts fundamental claim of the CCP that interbank defaults are not possible thanks to 100 per cent implicit guarantees.

Now credit risks and counter-party risks are descending on this very core market in China's financial system, all the key players in the system have to figure out how to price risks in the new paradigm, and quickly.  However they can't because it's full of fraud and lies.
The consequences are big and unpleasant waves of risk repricing with major banks shying away from doing business with smaller lenders.
This is a major problem, as small-to-medium sized banks combined have balance sheets as big as the big banks combined, but are far more dependent on interbank funding - that spells* 'credit crunch.'*
Not an ideal mix when the broader Chinese economy is slowing and under pressure from the ongoing push backs from the US against China's legacy of economic aggression.

*Meanwhile in China's property market* China has an estimated 21.4 per cent dwellings vacancies.  China now has as much as 6.4 billion square metres of empty residential floor space.That is 1.68 times the amount of floor space built over the past five years, and hints at the scale of construction downturn needed to allow the excess supply to be filled with residents.
To give you a better sense of the scale of China's overbuilding, assuming a reasonably generous average of 40sqm of floorspace per new dwelling, that is 160 million units that are currently sitting empty.


----------



## notting

*Biggest pushback against Chinese president Xi Jinping’s Belt Road Initiative*

Tanzania’s president John Magufuli has accused the Chinese project backers of presenting “exploitative and awkward” terms in exchange for financing. *Chinese financiers set “tough conditions that can only be accepted by mad people,”* Magufuli told local media.
https://splash247.com/tanzania-scraps-massive-chinese-port-project/

China usually gets the local officials in poor nations to sell out their countries by taking bribes for agreeing to exploitative terms.


----------



## notting

Chinese people plead to Trump to free them from the Chinese Communist Party.


----------



## notting

<iframe src="https://www.bloomberg.com/multimedia/api/embed/iframe?id=bfa45052-6d63-46cc-a5ee-5a442074dc52" allowscriptaccess="always" frameborder="0"></iframe>


----------



## kahuna1

They are so far ahead in some areas ... if you open your eyes.


----------



## satanoperca

kahuna1 said:


> They are so far ahead in some areas ... if you open your eyes.





Finally, someone put a more balance view to the situation. Only if notting would spend more time highlighting all the sh--it that our own govnuts impose or turn a blind eye to in our own communities, but some just need to rage


----------



## notting

There are problems in all governments and organizations.  Of course nothing is going to be perfect when people need to interact. I focus on the greatest threat to everything the human race has been threatened with.
You clearly have no idea how relatively fortunate you are to make such a naive and futile statement.
After a day in one of their camps you'd be wishing you were never born.
The sadism of the Chinese is unprecedented to humans and animals  alike.
Worse is the fact that they get off on it.






Here is an example of how you will be living in the not too distant future, for your mindless and childish complacency -


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> There are problems in all governments and organizations.  Of course nothing is going to be perfect when people need to interact. I focus on the greatest threat to everything the human race has been threatened with.
> You clearly have no idea how relatively fortunate you are to make such a naive and futile statement.
> After a day in one of their camps you'd be wishing you were never born.
> The sadism of the Chinese is unprecedented to humans and animals  alike.
> Worse is the fact that they get off on it.
> 
> View attachment 95901
> 
> 
> Here is an example of how you will be living in the not too distant future, for your mindless and childish complacency -





Well constructed argument, not.

Naive, hardly, futile, you responded, wish I was never born, ask the people of the first nation the same question, unprecendented sadism, you have never spent time in China with the locals.

FYI the greatest threat to the human race is the human race.


----------



## notting

Welcome to China, we're sure it's not what you expected.

*A Photographer Goes Missing in China*

*For five weeks, the world has had no idea where Lu Guang is.*

Lu Guang is an internationally acclaimed photographer from China, and he has been my friend for more than 15 years. I’m proud that the agency I co-founded represents and distributes his work. We first met in Beijing in 2002. He was already a well-known and widely awarded documentary photographer in his country, and he would soon win a slew of international awards, including some of the world’s most prestigious.
Lu Guang’s images have shown the world China’s larger reality -





No wonder they all smoke, it's healthier than breathing.





Hoping to catch something for dinner





What's that smell?





Workers





And what would I drink?





Anyone for a run around the block?





Perhaps you'd like to go for a spot of fishing?
	

		
			
		

		
	






We love the people and wish them to have a bright future.  That's why we are not enriching ourselves at the expense of well, everything.
Love The Chinese Communist Party




Come and get it, we love you -


----------



## kahuna1

IS so so good ;;;




700 million Chinese peasants NOW live middle class lives post 1980.
Life expectancy has risen 24 years in the past 40 years in China ...

USA ... lower 80% live SHORTER lives and lost 12 years of life compared to 40 EU nations lower 80% post 1980.


----------



## Dark Knight 2.0

satanoperca said:


> Well constructed argument, not.
> 
> Naive, hardly, futile, you responded, wish I was never born, ask the people of the first nation the same question, unprecendented sadism, you have never spent time in China with the locals.
> 
> FYI the greatest threat to the human race is the human race.




Cmon Satan. This Chinese regime is one of the worst with all the atrocities.
I think it's comendable what @notting is doing. Something needs to be done. Xi Jinping is worse than Putin and Trump combined. Probably just a smaller Kim.


----------



## kahuna1

A favorite  ....

Nothing has changed how they treat people .... other than one group now allowed at the event .... all others are subhumans.

Rah rah rah   happy 4th July

*Oscars Film Shows Nazi Rally at Madison Square Garden*



2019 version about to occur ... with tanks in Washington.

For all Chinese issues, and yes there are many ... slavery never went away in the USA  ...


----------



## kahuna1

I would kiss the ground ... Australian ... right now.

China has massive issues and still a lot in poverty 700 million are NO longer there ...'
'
USA has its lower 50% NOW with no net wealth .... NONE ..
Lower middle class and half the middle class has NO NET WEALTH .... none.

Putin is worse than both with the top 1% with 90% of wealth.'
Kim is a psychopath ... NO ifs ... whats or Buts ... 

USA is so far right they are actually debating healthcare for all. Anyone supporting it ... is called communist or socialist, things we enjoy ... even China has a decent and getting better healthcare system.

One is going backwards, whilst actually stealing tax globally from other sub humans, and we are viewed as subhuman and if we complain, tariffs, even threats further than that.

strange world we live in rah rah rah ... USA stocks all time highs ... not anyone in the middle class and lower middle class OWNS ANY SHARES .... NONE ... choices are paying your rent ... or medication where say Ibuterol for asthma  is 10 times the cost in Australia ... of eating food.

Meanwhile homeless number up 25% in 2 years, living in cars up similar and ... well ... apparently all time lows unemployment ? Which, has USA participation rates DOWN .... not up ., down ... where the 28 EU nations all time highs ... Australia all time highs ... USA just doesn't count those mainly brown and black people who cant get jobs after 6 months, they are removed. No support.

The amount of poo ... on the sidewalks in LA and San Fran ... liberal twits like Tucker Carlson complain about the inconvenience of 3 million homeless or living in cars, double that living on the couch ... 

Every nation has issues, but one where tax stops on social security at $110,000 and Medicare tax which is only for over age 65 free healthcare ... which no longer is free in the USA but needs $15,000 a year to pay for gaps and NOT covered and co-payments ... is where they are.

Mr Gates pays NOTHING to welfare .... not a cent ... Mr Buffet out of his 100 billion .... not a cent ... Mr BEzos with 200 billion ... minus 40 for his new girlfriend ... made 20 billion last 2 years Amazon and paid NOT a cent in tax.

China whilst i do NOT admire its authoritarian style .... control of people and its going to get far worse .... USA has gone to the uber rich with their quaint views about non whites and Latinos ... and healthcare that only covers 66% of people costs 20% of GDP ... basically double any other nation .... but only covers 66% so at near Medicare ion Aust or NHS in UK ... cost would be 30% of GDP ...

3 TIMES ... anywhere else .... MRI costs $1,100- v $270 here ... on and on I could go.

Welfare ... in USA ... is ... awful and slashed of late. USA stocks all time highs ?
Of course they are. ... tax was cut from 35% to 21% ... tax paid already awful at 35% tax at 17.6% ... its NOW .... 7.1% .... 

Meanwhile anyone outside the top 10% is being paid with wooden tokens where they may be on a good day exchanged for an aspirin for your ill child.

China is no saint .
I do prefer our system ... and EU one. 
A progressive tax system .... decent health and education ... China has these but with massive over control and lack of liberties. Sure .... lots left as peasants ... about half ... still there ... 

The liberties and freedoms we enjoy in Oz and NZ and Eu .... USA has lost its mind, then again the Historical Amnesia they suffer, slavery sadly never went away in 1876, it is alive and well ... sadly we in Australia are viewed as sub humans as well.

USA oil company .... LNG plant in WA ... they sat on the deposits for 40 plus years .... we have several plants up ... Pluto the WPL Australasian one paying 300 million company tax ... same economics built around same time ... next door ... not one, but three different USA ones ... Chevron and others.... NO tax paid doing same thing. .. same costs .... 

We must pay ... Google ... Microsoft ... Facebook .... lets not book sales in Australia ... but via Bermuda and avoid GST ... and some tax on profits ....

A mere speck of the 30 billion we pay to our masters !! Each year ...


----------



## notting

Villages don't matter much to the communist party, the majority of the Chinese people are officially treated as serfs and slaves.
The Chinese Communist Party plunged the Chinese into poverty and mass starvation in the first place.
They have barley raised them out of anything that the CCP created and the numbers are lies.  Recently they have stolen their retirement money and healthcare money.  Simply by not paying it when it became due.
That money was counted as part of the 'raised out of poverty status'  Which is pathetically low to begin with.
She got ill in the village.  You have to drink the poisoned water and try to live off the toxic land when you can't afford to buy water or filter it.


----------



## satanoperca

notting said:


> Villages don't matter much to the communist party, the majority of the Chinese people are officially treated as serfs and slaves.




It seems are ex pollies see us as no different.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/b9f053eb0bd99e20412a2b628133bb87

"Foreign investors are thought to own around 500,000 Australian homes, many of those in Sydney and Melbourne."

I walk past homeless people everyday, it seems to be getting worse in inner Melb every year and Bob Carrs answer to the problem is "Get Over it". How about F--k off Mr Carr


----------



## notting

Australia is in deep sh0t from allownig the Chines to buy up all sorts of things here, not the least of which is property which they do in concentrated areas to take over the politics of an area and gain leverage over governments to assist in corrupting the decision making for further infiltration.
Even the Chinese here tell us we are crazy to have let this happen.
it's one reason why you should find out as much as you can about how the Chinese operate and how terrible the consequences will be for Australia's future.


----------



## notting

According to the Henry Jackson Society researchers, the analysis of employee CVs—with as many as *25,000 uncovered *by Fulbright University's Christopher Balding—showed that Huawei staff had "worked as agents within China’s Ministry of State Security; worked on joint projects with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA); were educated at China’s leading military academy; and had been employed with a military unit linked to a cyber attack on U.S. corporations.

They dress to look soft, look you in the eye with a kindly smile whilst telling unconscionable lies..





They have no conscience at all.
They think it is weakness!
How stupid you are for not doing the same.
We are the Han Chinese.  We are superior.  We are a long way ahead of you.


----------



## rederob

notting said:


> it's one reason why you should find out as much as you can about how the Chinese operate and how terrible the consequences will be for Australia's future.



What about the way you operate here?
This was not what you quoted at all, and is typical of your inability to offer balance.
It was in fact an award winning photo taken by Lu Guang in 2004, inside an aids village in Henan province, China.
I could go around Australia taking equally shocking photos and posting them without perspective, but it would not be particularly informative.
What I dislike most here is the fact you are using this thread to propagandise a personal issue you have, and are not at all posting on the thread's principal theme.


----------



## notting

Who would have the despicable idea of stealing money from beggars?
The evil Han Chinese -

https://7news.com.au/news/crime/pro...jIJMiReQHLevlwThrIoGU9qkzieI52oZfsOAIFZkrKifk



Not only is it stealing from the good hearted people of our country, it is stealing from our real street people and beggars because it takes over their slim opportunity for a meal, it takes over the good hearts in people who naturally want to give to those suffering by casting doubt in their minds, making them think 'Is this person a fake?'  
Not just one, China decides to make an industry of it and export it worldwide .
Only and unconscionable psychopath would organize such a thing.


----------



## notting

This should freak the CCP out.
HK protesters are in Kowloon a most popular shopping district for mainlanders where they are letting them know how hoodwinked they are by the CCP propaganda as well as letting them know that if the CCP takes full control of HK - They will not be able to feed their babies safely.
They come to HK and Australia to buy baby formula because you can't trust the stuff the corrupt Chinese mainlanders make.
Having babies die of poisoned baby formula isn't something most people are comfortable with!!
Of course that's nothing to the psychopathic Han Chinese, what's important to them is making as much money out of the stuff as you can.
A2 Milk, Bellamys would benefit it the CCP decide to crack down or limit mainlanders from entering HK.


----------



## notting

*Chinese warship heads towards Queensland coast to 'collect information' on US-Australian military exercises*






https://7news.com.au/politics/defen...e=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1562556885850

*Unbeknown to us, what the Chinese are really doing is looking at what we will do when they invade Australia.*

*The Chinese think Tasmania is the easiest target and very useful to them.  They have already made small steps there.  Obviously the mainland is what this exercise is focusing on.

Can you believe Xi got away with saying this regarding a huge fake Buddhist temple they have built in the middle of Tasmania - "
at Hobart Radio, Tasmania, Australia on 6th December 2014 ──"Persistence in Chinese Characteristics Diplomacy" mentioned, President Xi Jinping expounded at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs:

"We should seek other countries' understanding of and support for the Chinese dream, which is about peace, development, cooperation and win-win outcomes. What we pursue is the wellbeing of both the Chinese people and the people of all other countries."

“We should increase China's soft power, give a good Chinese narrative, and better communicate China's message to the world.”
*


----------



## notting

In Tasmania Xi also said this in a speech - "Ever since twenty-five years ago, based on the ultimate virtuous kindness, compassion and wisdom of the Great Sage Sakyamuni Buddha, Bhagavan Zhi Ji Vimalakirti Patriarch dedicated to promote *religious harmony, human harmony and world peace; to share Chinese fine traditional culture"*

Literally today The Chinese communist party is blowing up churches and removing Christianity from the country.







The Chinese have destroyed over 5000 monasteries in Tibet and murdered over 1 million monks.  China  invaded Tibet and brutally occupy it to this day today.

China is still doing the destruction and cultural destruction today in Tibet and Southern Mongolia -











Currently has over 1million East Turkistan Muslims in concentration camps and is reeducating their children in huge kindergarten prisons whipping all Muslim ideas from their minds and brainwashing them with Chinese Propaganda.


The Chinese have murdered around 100 million Falun Gong practitioners in China istelf and havested most of their organs

*Xi comes to Australia and Tasmania whom they have clear plans to invade, makes this evil lying speach and our press says NOTHING!*


----------



## notting

What Trump did last night was fantastic!
Everyone including the communist pigs in China thought he would not raise tariffs because it could rock the economy and weaken his re-election chances.
it was a beautiful thing.


----------



## notting

*Andrew Hastie -*  






*The First Australian Politician to call out China for what it really is *
*FINALLY*
How many years have I been warning people, How many years for us to wake up that we are under full fledged attack from a *monstrous* regime, more powerful, far more dangerous and far more inhumane that the Nazi regime.  This is not an exaggeration!!

We are in such deep **** People have NO IDEA!

"Like the French, Australia has failed to see how mobile our authoritarian neighbour has become. Even worse, we ignore the role that ideology plays in [Beijing's] actions across the Indo-Pacific region."

Mr Hastie said the West had made the same mistake before in believing the actions of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin "were the rational actions of a realist great power".


----------



## notting

*Australians Are Idiots *
*What will it take before Australian citizens are screaming at their politicians to end China's invasion that the politicians are too stupid to recognize!?*

China needs Australia more than you think Australia needs China, With a massive population they need to feed, high quality iron ore for steel, and coal to produce energy, China cannot afford to disrupt this trade for fear of further destabilising their economy which exacerbates their biggest fear, internal disruption.
*Encirclement*
What is Australia doing to prevent China from encircling it via its Belt and Road Initiative, the creation of subservient nations across the Asia Pacific and de facto ownership of nearby ports, and actively meddling in Australian politics? Why are former high-ranking Australian politicians (including a former prime minister, state premiers, and former cabinet ministers) effectively on the Chinese payroll across organisations including the Australia China Business Council, China Development Bank and China Matters?
To Jim Fanell these are classic Cold War era tactics to bring an unwitting country to heel. And what bigger prize for the CCP than a docile or compliant Australia?
Fanell’s biggest fear for Australia is that we’re slipping towards becoming a Chinese vassal state without a conscious decision.


----------



## notting

*China builds more secret ‘concentration camps’ to detain East Turkestan people despite global outcry over human suffering

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ims-persecution-detention-camps-a9051126.html*


----------



## notting

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/kyl...t.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar


----------



## notting




----------



## notting

The CCP is a Kleptocracy
you need to understand the currency printing and how they are effectivly stealling all the assets they buy overseas.
Feel the vibe of a guy who has real life experience with the CCP


----------



## notting

*Australia is invaded and too stupid to know it*

You should be more worried about the fact that 70% of her electorate are Chinese who have taken over that electorate and work for China's control in Australia.

feature=youtu.be


----------



## notting

Now Ordinary Australians are being subjected to intimidation by the Chinese in their own country 



Read the article -
https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/10/08/chinese-spying-dissidents-australia/


----------



## notting

*Whatch the whole thing.  
It starts a bit slow but gets into the issue, guts and all!!!*


----------



## notting

We are idiots!


----------



## notting

The epidemic could have been controlled fairly easily three weeks ago had there been more openness, swift action, and no attempted cover-up. But now it’s too late, and this virus is spreading globally. Because there is no vaccine or treatment for nCoV2019—the Wuhan pneumonia—and infection has spread throughout China, the government is forced to turn to its 2003 SARS playbook. And that means entire cities must be cut off, and the population of the nation must be restricted in its movements and potential disease-spreading behavior. It is not surprising then that travel out of Beijing may be forbidden; the entire mainland could go on lockdown soon.

Whilst watching the video
Keep in mind the Chinese Communist Party tried to blame the citizens for not wearing masks, as being the reason for the outbreak!
The central government is now blaming the local government.



*Isn't it telling that another miraculous killer virus emerges from China seemingly out of the blue?*
Not really -






When news first broke the Chinese Dictators quickly blamed a fish marked and was flooding local media with Chinese people eating bats and wolf cubs and really strange animals to throw speculation off the real source!!


----------



## notting

Doctors Arrested in China for telling the truth -



But wait there's more -
Children in Wuhan were starving to death at home because their parents were quarantined said some Chinese.  See their hypocrisy and blindness due to brainwashing by the CCP for Uighurs have been detained, sentenced, disappeared, and thier children have often frozen to death, starved and even found drowned. The Chinese are not filled with remorse, indignation or show the least concern about East Turkistan people.  Frankly the West has not done enough to end this evil either.
There are now stories coming out about Chinese abroad being shunned due to being Chinese.  So we only shun them now when our health is at risk?  Otherwise we will happily take their money no matter what they do.
We have brought it upon ourselves.  Our silence is EVIL


----------



## notting

China is a cult. 
Doctors ordered to sing Communist Parties Anthem to sick and dying people.


----------



## frugal.rock

rederob said:


> What I dislike most here is the fact you are using this thread to propagandise a personal issue you have, and are not at all posting on the thread's principal theme.



Here, here.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-inject-174-billion-liquidity-091350955.html
"*China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen"*
So stick that in your pipe...
F.Rock


----------



## notting

*This Virus thing could have been prevented!*



Dr Forced to sign this document months ago saying everything was OK and declare that he would not be spreading 'more rumors' (the truth) -


----------



## frugal.rock

Mate, give it a fricking break would ya?
This ain't the thread or the forum for political propaganda, whether true or false.

F.Rick


----------



## qldfrog

notting said:


> *This Virus thing could have been prevented!*
> 
> 
> 
> Dr Forced to sign this document months ago saying everything was OK and declare that he would not be spreading 'more rumors' (the truth) -




Notting, no it could not have been prevented by releasing information
It could actually have been worse in a democracy as people would have escaped and spread the virus further faster
It might be not PC to say that but i think China because of its endless tracking and control as well as mega industrial power under the direct orders of the CCP, is the best place on earth to try to control the virus
Imagine the same elsewhere in the west
People complaining about cockroach in the quarantine center..FFS
But you may see your dream fullfilled as the Chinese economy will take a heavy hammering


----------



## notting

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-property-real-estate-boom-covid-pandemic-bubble-11594908517
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-property-real-estate-boom-covid-pandemic-bubble-11594908517


----------



## notting

Have a look at the information in this thread and the dates I was posting it. Go back as far as you like.
Still think I'm a bit crazy?
I was trying to help the country.
Now this -








						China threatens Australia with missile attack | The Strategist
					

In the face of an increasing torrent of abuse from Beijing, Canberra should seek a much clearer commitment from Washington that its United States ally will retaliate if China launches a missile attack against Australia. ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au


----------



## qldfrog

Probably the end of the Australian bull based on the china bull:
https://qz.com/2051594/chinas-boycott-of-australian-coal-has-been-good-for-india/?utm_source=YPL


----------



## StockyGuy

Thinking about laying down a lump of the hard earned stuff on an ETF, maybe Chinese only, or anything just broadly Asian always has massive Chinese (especially tech stock) element.

Too much of my portfolio in cash so very little upside potential.  I simply can't go long term on apparently overheated markets with non-super capital.  That being said I've not touched my superannuation settings since early 2009 and will never veer from their Aus and USA focus; it's axiomatic.  To my simple nature crypto and NFTs shouldn't even be a thing, so definitely must allow for being wrong the big western stock markets seem toppy.  For all I know we might see S&P 500 hit 10,000 before it sees another proper 30+% crash.

Anyone else seeing fit to have some long term stake in the Chinese arena?  Many unknowns of course; who even knows if under serious tensions with the US if American ETFs holding Chinese stocks would remain viable.  If nationalisation of a stock happens would the owners get anything back?


----------



## divs4ever

now i THINK China is consolidating  and probably has been hard at it ,  ever since this virus distraction  ( just like Russia  , moved even faster towards self-reliance and self-sufficiency )

 now a couple of years ago i bought some ASIA  , and a little later EAI , but then i think India is a super power of the future  , and China although becoming powerful , will face hurdles from the fading empires ( US and EU )

 one nation i don't have explicit exposure to and wished i could ( at the right price )  is Korea  ( which i would hope would unify in my lifetime , but probably won't )


----------



## qldfrog

StockyGuy said:


> Thinking about laying down a lump of the hard earned stuff on an ETF, maybe Chinese only, or anything just broadly Asian always has massive Chinese (especially tech stock) element.
> 
> Too much of my portfolio in cash so very little upside potential.  I simply can't go long term on apparently overheated markets with non-super capital.  That being said I've not touched my superannuation settings since early 2009 and will never veer from their Aus and USA focus; it's axiomatic.  To my simple nature crypto and NFTs shouldn't even be a thing, so definitely must allow for being wrong the big western stock markets seem toppy.  For all I know we might see S&P 500 hit 10,000 before it sees another proper 30+% crash.
> 
> Anyone else seeing fit to have some long term stake in the Chinese arena?  Many unknowns of course; who even knows if under serious tensions with the US if American ETFs holding Chinese stocks would remain viable.  If nationalisation of a stock happens would the owners get anything back?



My view and not advice on this:
I actually moved bear on China stocks for a few months and cashed my profit.
China is big,and will be bigger but our access to the Chinese stock market is at best limited. And i mean even via NYSE.
The big players there are subject to both US and China governments pressure/manipulation...as just recently shown ,with 0 surprise from me, for Tencent Alibaba etc..i do stay away.China will become more and more powerful but it could be hard to pinpoint a winner chosen by bj, and allowing westerners to gain from it
One area of interest is the yuan....
I bet it will go stronger and stronger,got much more gold backup and a strong economy not affected by Reset and other covid scam,
They will actually benefit from...
I own a Yuan etf on US market.
I also see Russian economy as a winner,both secondary winner to China but also direct winner of the western economic suicide: providing energy and food to the world from former western markets.
There is a russian ETF i am invested in in the NYSE.
Will also benefit from the fall of USD and collapse of American power.
I agree with @divs4ever about India but am not in. i should and happy to know of relevant etfs
Lastly, do not neglect Asia
From Thailand, Vietnam to even Laos, Cambodia. Riding China wave with educated population and room to grow. Hope it helps


----------



## qldfrog

And please do not forget a black swan not that unexpected like Taiwan takeover.Trump is gone, it is now a given.
military or smooth, that is the only question....


----------



## StockyGuy

Cheers, fellas.  I'm especially sizing up VAE - Vanguard FTSE Asia ex Japan Shares Index ETF.  Lowish Management fee at 0.40% p.a. - low for this exotic type of thing. It's very heavy China tech stuff, as expected. That Taiwan black swan would have ta hurt lol -  given its #1 shareholding is currently Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.


----------



## notting




----------



## dyna

Can't find the right thread for this, so.....
Texan fund manager Kyle Bass had this to say about China.( Having stopped investing, there in 2,009 )
" Why would you invest in China given all the risks? There's no rule of law, no fiduciary duty towards investors, and no appropriate level of auditing for their companies."
Another Texan, Muddy Waters Research founder, Carson Block adds " China is rule by law, not rule of law. Its numbers are not trustworthy and...nothing about China is trustworthy."


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Kunming. 2021


----------



## rederob

Dona Ferentes said:


> Kunming. 2021
> 
> View attachment 131794



Was only $155 million collapsing and looks better in slomo:


----------



## finicky

The filth that is CCP China


----------



## divs4ever

Flights cancelled, schools closed as China fights new Covid outbreak









						China Coronavirus News: Flights cancelled, schools closed as China fights new Covid outbreak | World News - Times of India
					

China News: Authorities in China cancelled hundreds of flights, closed schools and ramped up mass testing on Thursday to try and stamp out a new Covid-19 outbreak




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com
				




might be worth keeping a track of 

 my interest will mostly be on coal prices  , i hold WHC ( 'free-carried ' ) NHC , S32 and BHP although from memory Mongolia has a bit of iron as well 

 DYOR


----------



## Smurf1976

rederob said:


> Was only $155 million collapsing and looks better in slomo



What's the logic in doing this?

$155 million plus the resource use and environmental impacts of all that concrete, steel and so on.

Could they not be fixed or completed?


----------



## sptrawler

Smurf1976 said:


> What's the logic in doing this?
> 
> $155 million plus the resource use and environmental impacts of all that concrete, steel and so on.
> 
> Could they not be fixed or completed?



Exactly what I thought, there is a lot of global warming, putting that up, taking it down and cleaning up the mess.
It would only hit the headlines, if it happened in Australia. 🤣


----------



## rederob

Smurf1976 said:


> What's the logic in doing this?
> 
> $155 million plus the resource use and environmental impacts of all that concrete, steel and so on.
> 
> Could they not be fixed or completed?



Long story.


----------



## againsthegrain

That is your typical Chinese mentality,  screw everybody around you over kill the environment and poison anything in your way as long as your family is safe and there is $1 profit to be made


----------



## over9k

Smurf1976 said:


> What's the logic in doing this?
> 
> $155 million plus the resource use and environmental impacts of all that concrete, steel and so on.
> 
> Could they not be fixed or completed?



Test run for tianamen square round two. Before you put your boot on everyone's necks you've gotta figure out the most effective boot to use.


----------



## rederob

againsthegrain said:


> That is your typical Chinese mentality,  screw everybody around you over kill the environment and poison anything in your way as long as your family is safe and there is $1 profit to be made



Sounds more like Australia's climate change policy.
Otherwise your comments are the usual standard we can expect.  Are you and  @notting twins?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I must admit to being a bit agnostic on the end of the China Bull, just not willing to make a formal prediction. China is such a unique place. The same goes for the threat of China to Australia militarily and economically.

People tend to make prognostications on China, quite naturally, from a set point in time, usually the present, right now, or at a time shortly in the future, statim as one of the drinkers here at the hotel who is a medical doctor would say. He's not a bad doctor by the way but a dreadful investor. 

I tend to have a different view and that is of an ever changing world where future events unknown to us, large and small, will lead on to larger events such as prosperity or ruin and so on repeatedly. 

The Chinese will do what is best for China, and The Western World including Australia will do what is best for them. Presently both China and the West are in a state of huge flux. I find it impossible to be bullish or bearish on China or Australia. The unknown beckons. Experts are inexact and have their own agenda.

I will wait, and watch.

gg


----------



## finicky

Entertaining and encouraging take. CCP brutish mindless policies lead to self inflicted calamities.
Australia's coal = the 'Chinese' sparrow (the cute little chubsters look like English sparrows to me)


----------



## wayneL

There is a mainstream view that countries (especially China) can ignore the laws of economics.

I say that hypothesis will be disproved in due course.

Please consider this to be "on record" (especially for China)


----------



## rederob

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit to being a bit agnostic on the end of the China Bull, just not willing to make a formal prediction. China is such a unique place. The same goes for the threat of China to Australia militarily and economically.
> 
> People tend to make prognostications on China, quite naturally, from a set point in time, usually the present, right now, or at a time shortly in the future, statim as one of the drinkers here at the hotel who is a medical doctor would say. He's not a bad doctor by the way but a dreadful investor.
> 
> I tend to have a different view and that is of an ever changing world where future events unknown to us, large and small, will lead on to larger events such as prosperity or ruin and so on repeatedly.
> 
> The Chinese will do what is best for China, and The Western World including Australia will do what is best for them. Presently both China and the West are in a state of huge flux. I find it impossible to be bullish or bearish on China or Australia. The unknown beckons. Experts are inexact and have their own agenda.
> 
> I will wait, and watch.
> 
> gg



China's ongoing development is predicated on rolling 5 year plans which take in views from the bottom up.
China's present objective is to continue to industrialise until around 2030. 
Between now and then China sees itself in a transformative phase, shifting significantly towards services and employment sectors more reliant on its internal economy.
This year consensus forecasters expect China's annual GDP to be around 8%.
There will always be an end to a bull run but for now China continues to be one of the best performing nations wrt annual growth in GDP:





This IMF interactive shows China is expected to grow GDP at no less than 3% for the next 5 years.


----------



## notting




----------



## notting

*They peddled the lie for 20 years!*
The collapse will be like nothing the world has ever seen before -


----------



## notting

Think China's infrastructure development and progress like high speed rail is miraculous?
Think again -


----------



## qldfrog

notting said:


> Think China's infrastructure development and progress like high speed rail is miraculous?
> Think again -




I would tend to disagree on that one, if the whole company collapses tomorrow,trains and lines remains,and will still run fully dependent on electricity and not imported oil.
Comoare this to the west use of debt:..
Social welfare and government bonds repayment for overseas liabilities.
Give me debt like high speed train , here we build olympic park facilities, in Europe welfare and in the US,missiles for Afganistán and share buy back.
Interesting to also look at 2021,with covid impact on travel.
Definitely NOT a great failure.
Tell me about ghost cities or environment in China, or windmills farms in the West and then i will agree about useless wasted money


----------



## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> I would tend to disagree on that one, if the whole company collapses tomorrow,trains and lines remains,and will still run fully dependent on electricity and not imported oil.
> Comoare this to the west use of debt:..
> Social welfare and government bonds repayment for overseas liabilities.
> Give me debt like high speed train , here we build olympic park facilities, in Europe welfare and in the US,missiles for Afganistán and share buy back.
> Interesting to also look at 2021,with covid impact on travel.
> Definitely NOT a great failure.
> Tell me about ghost cities or environment in China, or windmills farms in the West and then i will agree about useless wasted money




 indeed , a case of 'our ' waste of money , is more beneficial than yours 

 apart from Japan's recycling of their Olympic Games facilities  such 'international showpieces ' have been vainglorious propaganda projects 

 BTW how is Australia's hi-speed rail project going , given the congestion at Sydney Airport  one would have thought a hi-speed rail in south east Australia (Canberra-Sydney-Melbourne-Adelaide ) would have been a no-brainer  .. maybe the problem is keeping the power-lines up


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## Knobby22

China to dominate new technologies  especially batteries, magnets, solar, rare metals, etc.  They have planned this. Nasty read but a very good one. 
Just because their growth is slowing doesn't stop the bull long term.









						What if China saved the world and nobody noticed?
					

If pending US efforts on renewable energy are extraordinary, the revolution under way in China is truly staggering.




					www.theage.com.au


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## divs4ever

Knobby22 said:


> China to dominate new technologies  especially batteries, magnets, solar, rare metals, etc.  They have planned this. Nasty read but a very good one.
> Just because their growth is slowing doesn't stop the bull long term.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What if China saved the world and nobody noticed?
> 
> 
> If pending US efforts on renewable energy are extraordinary, the revolution under way in China is truly staggering.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theage.com.au




 now ( elsewhere ) i have been urging China to lift the 'foot off the gas peddle ' since about 2016   ( to bring official  growth  below 6% , ideally near 5% ) and focus more  on infrastructure  and removing ( internal ) bottlenecks  , now i was always concerned China  could do this AND have a soft landing  ( if China crashed the wreckage would destroy most of the developed economies )

 now maybe China didn't want to lose face by slowly down openly and methodically , OR others saw the over-expansion as a weakness that could be exploited 

 now the question nobody seems to asking  .. is China using all this confusion  to leap into the lead of the space ( exploration ) race  , bypassing the US India , and Russia  , all the technologies China is improving are ideal for more efficient for space exploration ( and colonization )


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## notting

qldfrog said:


> I would tend to disagree on that one, if the whole company collapses tomorrow,trains and lines remains,and will still run fully dependent on electricity and not imported oil.
> Comoare this to the west use of debt:..
> Social welfare and government bonds repayment for overseas liabilities.
> Give me debt like high speed train , here we build olympic park facilities, in Europe welfare and in the US,missiles for Afganistán and share buy back.
> Interesting to also look at 2021,with covid impact on travel.
> Definitely NOT a great failure.
> Tell me about ghost cities or environment in China, or windmills farms in the West and then i will agree about useless wasted money



CCP use and are still creating new coal fired power stations to creat enough electricity with mega tons of the filthiest coal and it still costs the majority of Chinese tax payers a  fortune.  Almost all of the Chinese people cannot afford to use the 'high speed rail' because the tickets are too expensive.  It's a mega vanity show of the worst kind. They try to export the technology but most countries reject it when they see the amount of electricity needed!!!


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## qldfrog

notting said:


> CCP use and are still creating new coal fired power stations to creat enough electricity with mega tons of the filthiest coal and it still costs the majority of Chinese tax payers a  fortune.  Almost all of the Chinese people cannot afford to use the 'high speed rail' because the tickets are too expensive.  It's a mega vanity show of the worst kind. They try to export the technology but most countries reject it when they see the amount of electricity needed!!!



The middle class does use them.
Nearly all the 20-25y plus employees of our startup where using these instead of airplanes when either travelling for pleasure or during the big family holiday/transhumance 😁
Not a fan of ccp, but these trains are really used intensively.
And in the 3y i worked in mainland China, i never ever saw any push to reduce power use.just build more power stations...


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## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> The middle class do use them.
> Nearly all the 20-25y plus employees of our startup where using these instead of airplanes when either travelling for pleasure or during the big family holiday/transhumance 😁
> Not a fan of ccp, but these trains are really used intensively.
> And in the 3y i worked in mainland China, i never ever saw any push to reduce power use.just build more power stations...



And while they were uni level kids, they were not rolling in it, our chinese co founder was a real bastard salary wise.
Higher middle and top class flew..so did we so the reason i never took it🥴


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## divs4ever

divs4ever said:


> now the question nobody seems to asking .. is China using all this confusion to leap into the lead of the space ( exploration ) race , bypassing the US India , and Russia , all the technologies China is improving are ideal for more efficient for space exploration ( and colonization )



CHINA LAUNCHES NEW REMOTE SENSING SATELLITE GROUP​


 the usual confusing description  , i am assuming it is monitoring the earth ( and probably communications ) 

 i suppose the important question is WHERE are these  Chinese satellites  doing all their 'sensing '


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## qldfrog

China better not fail:


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## notting

Australia's miners got a boost today as China cut it's interest rates, again.
*How naive are Ausi's for thinking that is something to buy on?*


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## notting

But don't worry Chinese Communist Party so smart they can fix anything....
*Remember fish don't even have lungs -* Hint, it didn't come from The Wuhan lab.  It was - the prawn...
🤣








						Chinese city swabs freshly caught seafood for Covid-19 | CNN
					

The Chinese coastal city of Xiamen is testing freshly caught fish, crabs and even shrimp for Covid-19 as it goes all out to contain a spiraling outbreak -- a policy drawing ridicule online and criticism from experts who say it's a "waste of resources."




					edition.cnn.com
				




😂🤣


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## divs4ever

notting said:


> Australia's miners got a boost today as China cut it's interest rates, again.
> *How naive are Ausi's for thinking that is something to buy on?*




 China will think of itself first  and it would not shock me to find out China has a list of 'unfriendly nations' of it's own 

 are the recent  'disruptions ' actually selective export bans  for instance they have no problem supplying Chinese made phones to Russia ( while Apple and Samsung phones are difficult to buy )

 Turkey is also slashing rates in a counter-intuitive play


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## divs4ever

notting said:


> But don't worry Chinese Communist Party so smart they can fix anything....
> *Remember fish don't even have lungs -* Hint, it didn't come from The Wuhan lab.  It was - the prawn...
> 🤣
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chinese city swabs freshly caught seafood for Covid-19 | CNN
> 
> 
> The Chinese coastal city of Xiamen is testing freshly caught fish, crabs and even shrimp for Covid-19 as it goes all out to contain a spiraling outbreak -- a policy drawing ridicule online and criticism from experts who say it's a "waste of resources."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 😂🤣



 they were fine at fixing a narrative that doomed Western economies  ( strict lock-downs )


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## notting

divs4ever said:


> they were fine at fixing a narrative that doomed Western economies  ( strict lock-downs )



Pathetic the free world fell for that one!


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## divs4ever

notting said:


> Pathetic the free world fell for that one!



 power is addictive , absolute power is absolutely addictive 

 given the quality of most of the Western leaders  , i was very disappointed to be proven right ( they are mostly lightweights  and media whores )

i assume the West will try to rush to 'social credit  scores ' and digital money as well  ( because politicians are addicted to more control and power )

 the BIG question  is which type  of war will they use to distract us to complete the power grab  ( a major international one or a series of civil unrest  episodes )

 i will be still watching China  , to see if the measures taken already start to unravel the CCP


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## notting

And you thought Europe and Russia was a problem -
*Think Iron Ore *in the back of your head whilst watching!! Where has it all been going apart from the catastrophic largest housing collapse in world history in China, here -


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## divs4ever

please keep in mind  , China's 'miracle dream ' also kept Australia out of very deep crap  ( especially  during the GFC ) via our mineral exports 

 meanwhile in the West ....  we just doled out money ( to selected  friends )

 yes they can distract with China's issues  but the detractors  have no moral high-ground  to preach from 

 China has it's hi-speed rail , the West has the Ukraine conflict ( as trillion dollar black holes )

 and Australia hasn't the ability to learn from  either problem


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## sptrawler

Dont know how accurate this is, but does sound concerning.


			https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/very-painful-leaked-memo-shows-huawei-boss-worried-about-companys-survival/news-story/f9e9a58ece872d4b7740e6680617dc46?amp


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## moXJO

The drought in China looks pretty bad. Media always beats it up bigger. But it must be having an effect.


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## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> The drought in China looks pretty bad. Media always beats it up bigger. But it must be having an effect.



China spent the last 20y making sure that there's food on the table..from China, Africa, Europe or even Australia.and as far as i know, any production issue is hurting us, not them.
Hum....


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## notting

Imagine how good the economy really is in China!!
 -


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## notting

This good!! -


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## notting

*Here comes India!* (relevance? Well it's going to replace China as the growth and factory of the world)


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## notting

*In school the Chinese children are forced to read a book by Xi about how smart Xi is and why China is better than the rest of the world, as if we didn't already know - *


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## notting

*But don't stop there.
We know it's airborne but we have our #chinavirus hero's leaving no stone unswabbed regardless -*


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## notting

Nothing but debt everywhere -


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## notting

Meanwhile 'made in China' keeps on doing what you expect things made in Chine to do - a high-rise telecom building in the central city of Changsha becomes a towering inferno.


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## qldfrog

End of the Chinese boom for Australia???
How dumb can we be ?








						China cripples Australia's AdBlue supply. Hit back with gas.
					

Late last year, the Chinese Government banned the export of urea, a naturally occurring chemical component that is used in both fertiliser and as a vital anti-pollution additive for diesel fuel named AdBlue. At the time, around 80% of Australia’s urea had been imported from China, which has the...




					www.macrobusiness.com.au


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## notting




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## divs4ever

notting said:


> *Here comes India!* (relevance? Well it's going to replace China as the growth and factory of the world)
> 
> View attachment 146508




 yes i believe you are correct , but NOT right away  , and maybe not in my lifetime  

 i am trying to increase exposure to India  , but be careful India still has it's traps and excesses 

 but China is still liable to be a strong No.2 in the longer haul


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## qldfrog

divs4ever said:


> yes i believe you are correct , but NOT right away  , and maybe not in my lifetime
> 
> i am trying to increase exposure to India  , but be careful India still has it's traps and excesses
> 
> but China is still liable to be a strong No.2 in the longer haul



Number 1 no doubt in my mind
 look as the us collapses under its own weight of wokeness and windmills and leftist crap as the EU did


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## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> Number 1 no doubt in my mind
> look as the us collapses under its own weight of wokeness and windmills and leftist crap as the EU did



And India will come, but not yet


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## Dona Ferentes

What does it cost to keep some of these people on location? Probably a million bucks a year, for salary, housing, schooling, travel.








						‘All my neighbours are moving to Singapore’: Expats flee Hong Kong
					

In Hong Kong, rents in high-end enclaves are plunging, international schools are closing, and the car market is saturated with second-hand luxury cars as expatriates leave in droves.




					www.afr.com


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## divs4ever

qldfrog said:


> And India will come, but not yet



India has it's warts , but also the potential  to go far , there is plenty to improve at home during a global economic collapse  , so it can re-skill the local populace  to do productive stuff  ,  the Muslim v. Hindu tensions will be the main danger  , if they get beat that ... 

 reasonably sunny  so solar can help , lots of coast-line  so wave technology can help  , if it can stay neutral with Russia  , commodities will be no problem


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## divs4ever

Dona Ferentes said:


> What does it cost to keep some of these people on location? Probably a million bucks a year, for salary, housing, schooling, travel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘All my neighbours are moving to Singapore’: Expats flee Hong Kong
> 
> 
> In Hong Kong, rents in high-end enclaves are plunging, international schools are closing, and the car market is saturated with second-hand luxury cars as expatriates leave in droves.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afr.com



maybe South Korea was a better choice  .. just saying .. they still have some industry


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## notting

Killing it in EV too as they keep telling us -


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## mullokintyre

Meanwhile, according to this guy,  Biden has completely screwed the Chinese  Chip supplies.
Similar to what Peter Zeihan has been saying.
Mick


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## qldfrog

mullokintyre said:


> Meanwhile, according to this guy,  Biden has completely screwed the Chinese  Chip supplies.
> Similar to what Peter Zeihan has been saying.
> Mick




When Biden screws someone,it  tends to be the western populace.
Might be time for China to send a few million drones to Ukraine


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## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> When Biden screws someone,it  tends to be the western populace.
> Might be time for China to send a few million drones to Ukraine



China don't want the Ukraine war to escalate. The chess player they are they know if tactical nukes are used it opens up a brand new chapter in nuclear arms race.
Looking 10 moves ahead some asian players such as Japan will also want nukes, and they probably can get their hands on them or develop them.


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## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> China don't want the Ukraine war to escalate. The chess player they are they know if tactical nukes are used it opens up a brand new chapter in nuclear arms race.
> Looking 10 moves ahead some asian players such as Japan will also want nukes, and they probably can get their hands on them or develop them.



For it not to escalade, they need to ensure Russia holds..so the drones


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## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> For it not to escalade, they need to ensure Russia holds..so the drones




Yeah maybe, its a very slipper political game. If they are seen as the ones fuelling the war they risk more sanctions.  If Russia falls also not that good for China. 
However I think China got all the wanted from this war, seeing the international community response, seeing how far and much usa is willing to support etc. 

The best outcome for China would be de-escalation, a slow quiet war at worst and a half victory for Putin at best. 

hmm rock and hard place definately. 

btw did you know Turkey has nuclear weapons as part of the Usa nuclear sharing program?  I never know until not long ago,  the whole escalation will push more Usa allies to push to be part of the program.  Won't be good for China nor Russia... for nobody


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## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> Yeah maybe, its a very slipper political game. If they are seen as the ones fuelling the war they risk more sanctions.  If Russia falls also not that good for China.
> However I think China got all the wanted from this war, seeing the international community response, seeing how far and much usa is willing to support etc.
> 
> The best outcome for China would be de-escalation, a slow quiet war at worst and a half victory for Putin at best.
> 
> hmm rock and hard place definately.
> 
> btw did you know Turkey has nuclear weapons as part of the Usa nuclear sharing program?  I never know until not long ago,  the whole escalation will push more Usa allies to push to be part of the program.  Won't be good for China nor Russia... for nobody



Especially Armenia, no one here gives a **** it seems but a whole civilized  and Christian region is under Islamist and Turk attack right now, and their only help is Russia while Biden provides the weapons to slaughter them..
Once again, if you are not Muslim and friends with the Saudis and the Bin ladens of this world, US bombs are heading your way.
A democrat signature: Serbia, Russia, Armenia and also Yemen if you remember.
So I would expect non Muslim countries to soon turn to China, no high hope but at least they will support you against trades.

The level of corruption in the US is too high for them to be saved IMHO and China will prevailin medium term.
Now, time to rush and get that computer and mobile replacement quickly as I guess they will soon become rarer


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## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> Especially Armenia, no one here gives a **** it seems but a whole civilized  and Christian region is under Islamist and Turk attack right now, and their only help is Russia while Biden provides the weapons to slaughter them..
> Once again, if you are not Muslim and friends with the Saudis and the Bin ladens of this world, US bombs are heading your way.
> A democrat signature: Serbia, Russia, Armenia and also Yemen if you remember.
> So I would expect non Muslim countries to soon turn to China, no high hope but at least they will support you against trades.
> 
> The level of corruption in the US is too high for them to be saved IMHO and China will prevailin medium term.
> Now, time to rush and get that computer and mobile replacement quickly as I guess they will soon become rarer



This is all true, can't argue on any of the points above. Unfortunately its human history all repeating itself all over. Small guys everywhere have always been getting squashed. 

It just depends on your geo location, the balkans historically got done by the Ottomans, Eastern Europe by the Russians and Austro Hungerian empire.  South East Asia by the Chinese.  

Chose your poison, when you go to prison you have to join one of the gangs for protection.  In the end id rather speak English and watch Hollywood trash and pretend im free then speak mandarin and be punished for even mentioning the word.


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