# NWH - NRW Holdings



## nomore4s (3 April 2009)

Couldn't find a thread for this one.

Anyone else holding this?

Has broken out of its base and is looking pretty strong atm. Currently up about 9% for the day and well up from its lows at under 15c.


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## nomore4s (7 April 2009)

No one is interested obviously, I will happily keep riding this one higher by myself:

In a trading halt pending an annoucement re a "significant contract", will be interesting considering the amount the price has already risen over the last few weeks.


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## snowfree (21 April 2009)

Just came across this one. The fundermantals look pretty healthy, although the dividend is cut to only 1c for the 1st half.

Considering getting a parcel, but the market seems to be pushing it down a bit...


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## titus (16 September 2009)

You guys still in NWH?  Or have you taken your profits and run?  Fundamentals are still good but I don't know if there's much puff left as the charts have gone off.  Any views?


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## travwj (13 January 2010)

Dunno if anyone is really following this one, but in a trading halt again. For a significant contract negotiation announcment. Recently broke through resistance at about $2 mark. Interesting to see how this goes as it has come a long way in the last year.

Cheers

Trav


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## nomore4s (13 January 2010)

travwj said:


> Dunno if anyone is really following this one, but in a trading halt again. For a significant contract negotiation announcment. Recently broke through resistance at about $2 mark. Interesting to see how this goes as it has come a long way in the last year.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Trav




I still hold Trav, but sold a small portion of my holdings off and am "free carried" now so am happy just to sit back and see where it leads now, certainly no reason to sell atm.


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## Absolutely (13 January 2010)

travwj said:


> Dunno if anyone is really following this one, but in a trading halt again. For a significant contract negotiation announcment. Recently broke through resistance at about $2 mark. Interesting to see how this goes as it has come a long way in the last year.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Trav




Probably civil works for Karara mine. Decent project and it was between them and Macmahon. We will see.


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## travwj (3 February 2010)

Just wondering if anyone would know, or has an idea why the sp has dropped over the last couple of weeks. I understand the market as a whole has been heading down, but even over the last couple of days with the market going up the sp of NWH keeps heading south.

Any info or explanations would be great.

Trav


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## skc (3 February 2010)

travwj said:


> Just wondering if anyone would know, or has an idea why the sp has dropped over the last couple of weeks. I understand the market as a whole has been heading down, but even over the last couple of days with the market going up the sp of NWH keeps heading south.
> 
> Any info or explanations would be great.
> 
> Trav




The engineering sector has been spooked a bit since WOR came out with a profit downgrade so some weakness may persist until NWH reports or provide an update.

On the other hand, it's not really doing that poorly compared with the XAO.
Not sure you can find a better correlated charts.


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## Fifty101 (3 March 2013)

*NWH - NRW Holdings Ltd*

Noticed these guys didn't have a thread that i could see as yet. Mining and resource service provider - operating in WA, QLD, NT and West Africa. Market cap around 575M. Steadily improving NPAT, ROE up close to 30% for last couple of years or so, Current price of $2.06 provides 8.74% div (100% franked and looking to remain stable). Still going through their reports in a bit more depth - anyone have anything to do with them, anything to offer?

BTW - great site - plenty of great info. I live reasonably remote, so has been good being able to see a bit of feedback on companies I'm looking at.


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## Country Lad (3 March 2013)

*Re: NWH - NRW Holdings Ltd*

Welcome to the forum fifty101.

There is an existing thread on NWH  here.  Easiest way to find them is to enter the code into the search bar top up in the right hand.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Fifty101 (3 March 2013)

*Re: NWH - NRW Holdings Ltd*



Country Lad said:


> Welcome to the forum fifty101.
> 
> There is an existing thread on NWH  here.  Easiest way to find them is to enter the code into the search bar top up in the right hand.
> 
> ...




Thanks mate, i thought of that after posting Great avatar by the way!


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## tinhat (6 March 2013)

Inverse head and shoulders turn around?


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## Pioupiou (13 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> Inverse head and shoulders turn around?




I took that to mean that NWH has a good-looking bottom, and the gluteophile in me occasioned me to buy this morning at $2.00.

Actually, I am not a chartist - I justified NWH on FA grounds, plus a bit of upside-versus-downside gambling, and a dash of fond hoping.

The FA side is that EPS will drop to about 31 cents in FY13, which requires a drop of EPS in 2H13 to about 13 or 14 cents, but Mr Market has accommodated this in the circa $2.00 SP.  The gamble is that things will remain at the 30-cent-EPS-16-cent-DPS level for a few years, which with franking credits yields an 11+% return - good in the current low-yield environment.  The fond hoping is that things will turn out well in time (the next three years), and the SP will rise.  Of course, I could be wrong.

The Thomson Consensus Estimates approximate my views, except I think NWH will hold the DPS at 16 cents per year for the next few years.  The Thomson Consensus Estimates are:

- - - -- 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - 2015
EPS - - 34.7 - 31.0 -- 29.9 - 28.6
DPS - - 18.0 - 16.0 -- 15.6 - 15.2

I looked at BYL too, but my spare cash sits in my SMSF, and NWH suits my SMSF portfolio better.  Had I loose personal cash, I flutter on BYL would have been justified, IMO.


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## tinhat (13 March 2013)

Pioupiou said:


> I took that to mean that NWH has a good-looking bottom, and the gluteophile in me occasioned me to buy this morning at $2.00.
> 
> Actually, I am not a chartist - I justified NWH on FA grounds, plus a bit of upside-versus-downside gambling, and a dash of fond hoping.
> 
> ...




Thanks Pioupiou. I should have mentioned in my previous post that I was looking at the weekly chart.

I bought some BYL recently - I only got half my order filled and it is still sitting with my broker.

NWH is a stock that has always been on my watchlist and which I have never owned. The Thompson Reuters data I have is forecasting dividends of 16c for FY 13 and 14.

I'll put NWH onto my list to research further. It could be a good little income earner to throw into the SMSF.


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## Pioupiou (13 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> Thanks Pioupiou. I should have mentioned in my previous post that I was looking at the weekly chart.
> 
> I bought some BYL recently - I only got half my order filled and it is still sitting with my broker.
> 
> ...




When you research NWH, you may find it useful to look at MACA (MLD) and BYL to get an idea of the earth-moving business as a whole.  I call it earth moving, because that is the essence of these three Perth-based firms (NWH, MLD and BYL), although they also do concreting, and I assume asphalting.  Being Perth-based, there is a great deal of similarity between the trio (and obviously, differences).  What is interesting, is that BYL is ramping up its employee tally, while NWH has cut back by 25%.  MLD may have superior metrics, but then its P/E ratio is 9.5 - much higher than BYL, and higher than NWH.

On holding the dividend, NWH is cashed up with no obvious need to spend the money, and it has already reduced headcount and paid a few million in redundancy payments.  It would not be difficult for NWH to keep the DPS at 16 cents for a few years, which period should suffice to allow NWH to adapt to changed circumstances.

I'll sit on my current holding with a view to increasing it over time if the underlying business improves.  It's an income play for me, because I have retired and my equity investments are my sole source of income.


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## Fifty101 (14 March 2013)

Nice drop in the SP today - low of $1.81, close of $1.835 - very close to a buy price for me. Even with the reduced DPS outlook over the next few years, at this price it's still a very reasonable return. Looks like all the mining related services are following the big players down again. Will see what tommorrow brings......


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## Fifty101 (23 March 2013)

Closing price of $1.635 = current yield of 11%. Even dropping to forecast 16c = 9.79% and 15c = 9.17%. Anyone aware of any developments with this one to cause the drop in price apart from the general follow down of the big name miners and mining svcs?


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## RottenValue (23 March 2013)

Viewed by market as being closely linked to the Iron Ore share price as has large contracts with FMG, RIO, etc.

Value is obviously far greater than market price, as always though will depend on when sentiment catches up with reality.  

Not a holder but interested.


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## tinhat (23 March 2013)

Small caps tied to iron ore are being hammered; eg GRR (similar PE and similar forward forecast PE), MGX. Reward is related to risk.


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## Country Lad (23 March 2013)

Fifty101 said:


> Great avatar by the way!




Sorry, missed your post. Yes, fishing at Cape Range National Park (Ningaloo Reef). Beats workin'




RottenValue said:


> Value is obviously far greater than market price, as always though will depend on when sentiment catches up with reality.




Sentiment hasn't been consistently positive for quite a while.  Better value elsewhere at the moment I'd say.


Cheers
Country Lad


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## PointBlank (12 April 2013)

A 6% drop today, does anyone know anything about this? I can't find any announcements.


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## skc (12 April 2013)

PointBlank said:


> A 6% drop today, does anyone know anything about this? I can't find any announcements.




Negativity on the sector due to:

1. $40b of work delayed / cancelled by WPL's Browse LNG.

2. Profit downgrade by CGH.


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## PointBlank (16 April 2013)

Thanks skc!
After finishing at $1.18, NWH is at a low it hasn't seen in over two years. The contributors are a drop in gold price and and a lower than expected Chinese growth rate. Does this all warrant such a drastic plunge in prices in a matter of a few days?
NWH had an EPS of 34.7c and paid out fully franked dividends of 18c over the past year. Their half year presentation stated that they had increased revenue and profit in each of their sectors significantly, although they did lay of a significant number of staff.
Their dividend yield is currently 15.25% (0.18/1.18), assuming of course that profits and dividends hold steady. My logic is that even if dividends halve then a 7-8% dividend isn't bad either.
Obviously mining won't have a good year this year, however has the share price scaled down accordingly? In my mind it has been too excessive, although I'm just a newbie and would appreciate feedback from others. Thanks!


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## skc (16 April 2013)

PointBlank said:


> Thanks skc!
> After finishing at $1.18, NWH is at a low it hasn't seen in over two years. The contributors are a drop in gold price and and a lower than expected Chinese growth rate. Does this all warrant such a drastic plunge in prices in a matter of a few days?
> NWH had an EPS of 34.7c and paid out fully franked dividends of 18c over the past year. Their half year presentation stated that they had increased revenue and profit in each of their sectors significantly, although they did lay of a significant number of staff.
> Their dividend yield is currently 15.25% (0.18/1.18), assuming of course that profits and dividends hold steady. My logic is that even if dividends halve then a 7-8% dividend isn't bad either.
> Obviously mining won't have a good year this year, however has the share price scaled down accordingly? In my mind it has been too excessive, although I'm just a newbie and would appreciate feedback from others. Thanks!




Mining services are operationally leveraged. 

In boom times, they have $1b in revenue, fixed costs of $500m and variable costs of $200m (20% of revenue), they make a $300m profit.

In quieter times, revenue reduced to $750m, fixed costs stay at $500m, and variable costs of $150m (20% of revenue), they make only $100m profit.

This example shows that a 25% reduction in revenue can lead to a 2/3 reduction in profits. 

Now if you take market's PE compression into account, the share price can fall even more. 

Apply this kind of thinking to NWH and assess if it is truely oversold / undervalued. Don't look at it based on historical prices / yield alone.

ASL is in a trading halt... see how price reacts to their new earning guidance.


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## PointBlank (16 April 2013)

skc said:


> Mining services are operationally leveraged.
> 
> In boom times, they have $1b in revenue, fixed costs of $500m and variable costs of $200m (20% of revenue), they make a $300m profit.
> 
> ...




Thanks again skc, I'll keep doing my research!


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## PointBlank (18 April 2013)

Sorry, I've got another question. Today NWH was awarded a $67 million Roy Hill contract, yet the share price dropped 7c to $1.155. I also remember the same thing happening to Decmil when they were awarded RH work. Have shareholders reacted negatively because: 1) They believe there is risk in Roy Hill; 2) NWH was expected to secure a contract worth more? Or were there any other reasons? I realise that the whole market dropped today, but NWH had a larger than average decline as did Decmil when they were awarded RH work. Thanks again


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## notting (18 April 2013)

The reason is that analysts are calling the end to the commodity super cycle, based on things like the 60 minutes story played in the US a few weeks ago and the announcement China's economy grew at a shocking annual 7.7% in the first quarter, below the expected 8 precent level and down from 7.9% in the previous quarter.(annualised)

These are the analysts that predicted the 7.9% growth in the first place and prior to that China would continue it's  urbanisation push for another 20 years although may not be so full of steriods so that it can last longer!!!!!!!!
So now that these legends are declaring the end of the super cycle you should sit up and take fricken good notice because these guys know what the frick they are talken about man!

I remember Lloyd Blankfein saying wonderful things about China about 18 months ago with a kind of - if you doubt that story your another dumb muppet you unworldly limp dick without a clue what the heck is going on over there,  look on his face.  
Now well, IO is going to $70.  
Not sure who is going to be around to sell it at that level but that's where it's going boys!!  Right through the floor.  I mean demand hasn't flinched but we can see where it's going from what we saw on 60 minutes!
I’ve been trying to alert people to the reality of China for decades and I mean decades!!
However, even a realist like myself, knows that the Chinese know no other way, they have to keep spending all the trillions they have made and are making to keep the people breathing the toxic air.  

The Chinese will keep spending because they will have to keep spending because they will never be consumers like the states and when the Leadership runs out of money to spend and the people are no longer able to be suckered, forced, conned, blackmailed into property to line the pockets of the princelings the princelings will have  take refuge in Nth Korea from the revolution which aint on the cards just yet.  Especially as the Chinese Peoples Murdering army is rather efficient at mowing down protests with machine guns and then murdering the families and friends of all who had anything to do with questioning the Chinese dictatorship.

No sign of the slowing of IO imports yet.  Still plenty of money in the till to keep the people eating the poisonous food & toxic pig and human soup they call water.
But the analysts know, now that US 60 minutes told them and they missed a .3 on 8% growth that the world is changing.  They know, they know.
That’s why!


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## Pioupiou (19 April 2013)

Hi PointBlank

Step 1 - Decide if you are a trader or an investor, and if you are a trader, read no further, it's not my game. 

Step 2 - Assuming you are an investor, decide that you are going to try to put a value on the stock, and ignore the share price for now.  Actually valuing the stock starts at step 3.  In my case it is never a sequential thing, I probably jump at a valuation, and change it as I do my homework.

Step 3 - Nut out what you think the business is, it is often not what people think.  For instance the Radio Rentals/rentlo arm of TGA does not rent new TVs and PCs - they sell them via finance leases, and where they pretend that they rent stuff like furniture, the truth is the $1 purchase price at the end of a 72-fortnight pretend operating lease is substantially a finance lease, so again, these items are substantially sold.  TGA's real business is creating debt situations, and then collecting repayment streams, and the bulk of their customers are on welfare.  I only mention TGA, because I know it well, and people often misunderstand it.  In the same vein, the significant business that NWH is in is earthmoving - it gouges and moves ore for miners, and it does other earthworks for them - access roads, holding dams, landing strips, et cetera.  It also does civil works for councils, road authorities, airport authorities and the like - substantially earthmoving with a concreting or asphalting component.

Step 4 - Think of the macro environment in which NWH operates.  Iron ore is being gouged at an ever increasing rate as simple reading about BHP, RIO and FMG will confirm, and most people who have an idea of this business see this happening for many years to come, so from an iron ore tonnage perspective, the boom is still on, so the earthmovers are not in deep trouble.  Royalties are paid in WA on a tonnage basis, and the WA Government's Royalties-for-Regions programme will see more civil works undertaken, which is good for NWH.

Step 5 - There will be a decline of profits, because the miners are going to negotiate harder, now that margins are slimmer, and because the exploration side of NWH's work will decline, but this is accommodated for in the Thomson Consensus Estimates that I presume all online brokers publish.  I have found these to be reasonably accurate - better than what most amateurs can invent .

Step 6 - Check the debt and things like that, and again, things are not always as they seem.  NWH has a mountain of cash, and it has HP commitments, but if you deduct the cash from the debt, the residual is small - 8% of equity, so this is not a risky business hounded by creditors and drowning in interest payments.

Step 7 - Now ask yourself what you are prepared to pay for the company.  This will probably be something like $2.00 - it could be lower.  In my case it is about $2.00.

Step 8 - If you are an investor using your own money, and you get say 14 cents dividend, or 16 cents after franking credits are added back, that would be 8% on a $2.00 SP, you could probably hold those shares for years, provided nothing looked like threatening that dividend.  You cannot eliminate the risk, so you take a punt and decide if the upside (getting more than 16 cents per share is more likely than get less, and if it is, you can accept the 16 cents as reasonable.  If you buy for less than $2.00, which is now the reality, things look even better.

Step 9 - You jump in and buy the shares if you cannot think of anything better wherein to invest your funds.

Step 10 - Watch the share, and provided your view of the earnings and dividend do not decline, do not worry about falling prices, other than perhaps considering buying more.  If the SP rises, you might take your capital gain if you think you can do better elsewhere.  As an aside, I bought in at $2.00 and doubled up yesterday, so thus far I am behind, but I expect not to remain behind for ever.  I could, of course, be wrong, but the trick is to be right more often than you are wrong, loosely speaking.  You can have more small failures than big successes, and still be ahead.

That is only one style of investing, there are others, as you will no doubt learn from forum members who do things differently.  My experience is that if you get the fundamentals right, then in time the SP aligns to the fundamentals, but this can take a long time, and that is why I like a dividend - it helps me sit out that long time.  Where I have probably failed in my investing is that I tend to hold too long, even when my perception of the business has changed, or when the SP has got toppy.


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## skc (19 April 2013)

PointBlank said:


> Sorry, I've got another question. Today NWH was awarded a $67 million Roy Hill contract, yet the share price dropped 7c to $1.155. I also remember the same thing happening to Decmil when they were awarded RH work. Have shareholders reacted negatively because: 1) They believe there is risk in Roy Hill; 2) NWH was expected to secure a contract worth more? Or were there any other reasons? I realise that the whole market dropped today, but NWH had a larger than average decline as did Decmil when they were awarded RH work. Thanks again




Roy Hill contract works are subjected to the project itself getting funding which isn't necessarily a given. 

Also, the forecast revenue for NWH would have included some expectation (may be a probability discounted %) of Roy Hill contracts. So while announcing a contrract win is good news, much of that may already be "factored in" so to speak.



Pioupiou said:


> That is only one style of investing, there are others, as you will no doubt learn from forum members who do things differently.  My experience is that if you get the fundamentals right, then in time the SP aligns to the fundamentals, but this can take a long time, and that is why I like a dividend - it helps me sit out that long time.  Where I have probably failed in my investing is that I tend to hold too long, even when my perception of the business has changed, or when the SP has got toppy.




Great post. I'd just like to add 2 points.

1. Be open to the idea that you are wrong and always look for evidence that prove you wrong. And have a plan handy for what you'd do when you are wrong.

2. Manage your risk of being wrong by not going "all-in".


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## Pioupiou (19 April 2013)

skc said:


> Roy Hill contract works are subjected to the project itself getting funding which isn't necessarily a given.
> 
> Also, the forecast revenue for NWH would have included some expectation (may be a probability discounted %) of Roy Hill contracts. So while announcing a contrract win is good news, much of that may already be "factored in" so to speak.
> 
> ...




Good response.  Obviously, I could not in a few words encompass everything, so you added the good point of what has been factored into an SP to explain a lack of reaction to news, or a negative reaction to good news, when better news was expected.  The bad news pertaining to NWH changing its EPS trajectory is, in my view, factored into the Thomson Consensus Estimates, and over factored in the current SP, which is why I bought.

Even seasoned experts make investing mistakes, so one should couch one's thinking in a framework well peppered with the concept of probability and subjectivity.  Beware of people who are adamant (Google the Dunning Kruger effect).  I like to articulate why I should buy a share in a written report, because the articulation itself often flushes out thinking and perception flaws, and I often expose these views to others, sometimes in this and other forums, which exposes my views to folk who may supply constructive criticism, but more importantly, my natural inclination not to look foolish forces me to be more thorough if I go public.

Your last point raises the concept of conviction levels and intellectual honesty.   Where my conviction level is high, I tend to hurl reasonable money at an investment, because it then forces me to invest time in the research supporting the decision.  I am not going to spend a day or more researching a stock, and refining my logic by way of a written report, if I am only going to invest $5K.  But for a new investor, your advice is sound.  With the benefit of hindsight, I wish I had not hurled as much at NWH as I did in April, and hurled more than I did on 18 May.

Take my views as mere grist for the mill, for were I a savvy investor I would be a multi-millionaire, which I am not.  I could write a long and sad tome on my bad investing experiences, and I wish I had started earlier in the game with less money.  I went in big-bang style when I was on the verge of retiring, so I know all about the University of HK (hard knocks).


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## rbgmauq (19 April 2013)

NWH has been showing support at 1.14 and resistance in the 1.77 range. Stochastic Oscillator (%K(14,3): 9.3      %D(3): 5.4) and RSI (RSI(14): 30.2)  are increasing according to au.stoxline website.


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## PointBlank (20 April 2013)

Thanks Pioupiou and skc, great advice all round and you've certainly given me my homework to do! I bought in at $1.41 after an initial 6% drop and  I thought it may rebound as I have seen with other stocks in previous instances. Like Pioupiou I have invested in NWH with the intention of holding it, however if it did go up considerably (which I doubted it would in a short period of time) then I would have considered selling for capital gains. I think fundamental analysis of the stock itself said that it was a buy, however I underestimated the effect the market sentiment had on it.

What I'm really trying to do at the moment is establish why certain drops happen, by how much was the drop, over what period of time and how did it recover? I hope to establish a sort of library of precedents in my head (as I'm a new trader) so in the future I may be able to buy in (or sell out) at a more ideal moment. Origin for instance had an 8% drop (from memory) when it announced that APLNG was $1.7 billion over budget, I didn't buy although I thought the drop was excessive and surely enough it did bounce back up. The 0.3% difference in China's growth was obviously far more significant to the market as a whole and caused drops over a longer period of time, so in the future I'll be sure to remember this. 

On the plus note, a variety of contractors and consultants have been commissioned for Roy Hill work which will start very soon! If it gets to construction phase then I'm sure we'll see upward movement from NWH.


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## tinhat (26 April 2013)

PointBlank said:


> What I'm really trying to do at the moment is establish why certain drops happen, by how much was the drop, over what period of time and how did it recover? I hope to establish a sort of library of precedents in my head (as I'm a new trader) so in the future I may be able to buy in (or sell out) at a more ideal moment.




I think that is the realm of technical analysis.

I bought in today at 1.235 At this price the market seems to have priced NWH with an improbable level of pessimism. Time will tell.


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## Fifty101 (30 April 2013)

Announcement today - followed by a 6% share price increase:

NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED (ASX: NWH) Contract Award
The NRWand Eastern Guruma Joint Venture is pleased to announce that it
has been awarded an approximate $180 million contract at
Rio Tinto’s Nammuldi Below Water Table(NBWT)

Project –
Bulk Earthworks
The Contract includes Bulk Earthworks for the processing plant, waste fine storage facility, mine
service facilities, stockyard, explosives compound, heavy vehicle haul roads, light vehicle roads,
and a rail link with a train loading facility.
Project Scope includes
(approx.)
:
•
5.7km of Heavy Haul Roads
•
12km of Ligh
t Vehicle Roads
•
Over 3,000,000 cubic metres of excavation
•
Over 690,000 cubic metres of drill and blasting
•
Over 7,000 lineal metres of culverts
The Project is expected to run for 37 weeks commencing May
2013 and at its peak, over 400 workers will be required.


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## Fifty101 (30 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> I think that is the realm of technical analysis.
> 
> I bought in today at 1.235 At this price the market seems to have priced NWH with an improbable level of pessimism. Time will tell.




Timely purchase for you Tinhat, as it turns out given today's announcement. I also picked some up at $1.23 a week ago.


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## tinhat (2 May 2013)

Fifty101 said:


> Timely purchase for you Tinhat, as it turns out given today's announcement. I also picked some up at $1.23 a week ago.




Let's hope we picked the bottom. I only bought a few and will add to my position if I think the stocks is on the move. The problem is that the stock could languish here around these levels (or go lower still) for some time yet. The good thing is the volume has dropped away since the last leg down so it appears to have found a bottom fo the time being at least.

If it doesn't recover beforehand it could be that it will get more interest as it gets closer to the next ex-div date which should be late August.


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## odds-on (2 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> Let's hope we picked the bottom. I only bought a few and will add to my position if I think the stocks is on the move. The problem is that the stock could languish here around these levels (or go lower still) for some time yet. The good thing is the volume has dropped away since the last leg down so it appears to have found a bottom fo the time being at least.
> 
> If it doesn't recover beforehand it could be that it will get more interest as it gets closer to the next ex-div date which should be late August.




Hi Tinhat,

I suspect you are right, not a lot will happen until the next earnings guidance / Annual Report which can be expected in August. NWH sticks out like a sore thumb on my simple fundamental stock screener (admittedly so do some of the other mining services companies), so I am confident that other investors will be having a look. By my calculations NWH is worth $2.00.

Compared to the flash crash before Xmas the response has not been so immediate (admittedly other mining services companies have issued downgrades in that time) which suggests to me that Mr Market is pondering the impact of mining boom/downgrades so may take a while longer for stock to rise. Enough speculating from me and back to the street craps.

Cheers


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## Boggo (2 May 2013)

All the theory sounds inviting, the reality is not so tempting just yet !

(click to expand)


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## odds-on (6 May 2013)

Boggo said:


> All the theory sounds inviting, the reality is not so tempting just yet !
> 
> (click to expand)




Hi Boggo,

Thanks for the chart - what would have to happen to the chart for you to be tempted? 

I call this stage of the stock price cycle the "uncertainty" period.

Cheers

odds-on


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## Boggo (6 May 2013)

odds-on said:


> Hi Boggo,
> 
> Thanks for the chart - what would have to happen to the chart for you to be tempted?
> 
> ...




Probably a repeat of the left side of the chart I posted above.
Effectively it has been in a downtrend for over twelve months with a loss in value of around $3 so it needs to break out of its ongoing cycle of half hearted attempts at turning back up.

Just my


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## odds-on (7 May 2013)

Boggo said:


> Probably a repeat of the left side of the chart I posted above.
> Effectively it has been in a downtrend for over twelve months with a loss in value of around $3 so it needs to break out of its ongoing cycle of half hearted attempts at turning back up.
> 
> Just my




Thanks Boggo.

At this stage I think you will have to wait at least a year before you are tempted. The market is being pessimistic about this company, for the downtrend to continue the company has to go bankrupt and I do not see that happening. I speculate this is the point of “maximum pessimism”, so I took a position and am going to patiently wait for the party to get started or the facts about the business to change. According to the mainstream media it is a “yield-chasing” market so I reckon the double digit dividend yield and consensus estimates will eventually bring about a change in sentiment to the stock.

If the sentiment does change, I would appreciate your posts. I played TGA wrong (got in at the bottom but sold out too early) and would like to play this one better.

Cheers


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## tinhat (8 May 2013)

Fundamentally, only time will tell how well NWH is going to perform over the next couple of years. With their heavy exposure to Pilbara iron ore mining civil construction contracts just how well will they be able to replace work and sustain their civil works division and how well will they be able to maintain margins on future work?

NWH do a lot of work for Rio. Rio are the world's lowest cost iron ore producer. The Pilbara in general is low cost. What does this mean? It doesn't matter what the price of iron ore is, Rio will always be able to clear its production and make a profit. The more the price of iron ore falls, the more of the world's supply will come out of the Pilbara. Demand for Pilbara iron ore will not fall. The price may fall, but companies like Rio will be able to supply at profit throughout the price cycle.

So, there should be demand for NWH's services in the Pilbara in the long run. The question how much ongoing work and at what margin?

NWH have used a lot of labour hire and equipment hire during its current boom in work, so they should be able to continue to deploy their current full time work force and machinery to a large extent even if the work on hand reduces over the next couple of years - so they say.

Just how pessimistic a future does NWH face? Let's assume that in future years the company makes no money out of the civil construction business at all. In the 2012 financial year, the company saw $700m revenue from the drill, blast and mining businesses which are generally recurring revenues with multi-year contracts. At an after tax profit margin of 6% that still works out to earnings of $0.15 per share. At today's close that gives a PE of 8.8. Assuming a payout ratio of 67% on those earnings that would provide a dividend yield of 7.6% on today's closing price.

And yet we know that iron ore production out of the Pilbara is still set to expand further. Iron ore production is going to end up about double what it was in 2009 by 2015.

I agree with Bogo that from a technical position, it is far to early to make an entry into NWH from t/a of the chart. It would have been better to have gotten in close to the 1.14 low than I did, for safety in placing a stop loss, but I don't watch stock prices every day.


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## pacman (17 May 2013)

still a good bet, and a solid company, planning to buy more over the coming weeks.


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## Porper (17 May 2013)

pacman said:


> still a good bet, and a solid company, planning to buy more over the coming weeks.




Be interested to know if you thought it was a good company at $4.36 just over a year ago?

It's declined 73.0% since that time. Next support around $0.85. That's the technical side of things. Now tell us why it's a good company fundamentally?


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## Boggo (17 May 2013)

Boggo said:


> Effectively it has been in a downtrend for over twelve months with a loss in value of around $3 so it needs to break out of its ongoing cycle of half hearted attempts at turning back up.




No change in opinion for me, it is still maintaining a consistent downtrend with a few sucker upturns.




Porper said:


> Be interested to know if you thought it was a good company at $4.36 just over a year ago?
> 
> It's declined 73.0% since that time. Next support around $0.85. That's the technical side of things. Now tell us why it's a good company fundamentally?




The days of fundamentals and reality (actual stock price) consistently going in the same direction is a rarity since the pre GFC days.
There are many stocks trying to climb a hill in fourth gear because they have a full tank of gas but since the GFC and a whole new merciless operating environment the hill has had the last laugh.
Nowadays there are too many variables that can have a significant influence over a short time span that need to be recognised and dealt with if future survival is in your plan.
I believe it will stay like this too, belatedly received fundamental data just doesn't have the same influence anymore, especially over the period between bi-annual reports.

NWH is another classic example (there are many) where unless you have a bottomless drawer (and bottomless money pit) and also believe in cryogenics to see it back into a profit for you then you are better off striking up a cosy relationship with reality.


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## ricee007 (19 May 2013)

Just got in... expecting that there is not an awful lot of downside.

A dividend of 13c-18c looks likely... so anything under $1.30 looks exceptional for my needs.


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## ricee007 (2 June 2013)

Dropped around 15% to $1 or so after I got in (at $1.16), now is up to around $1.155... so hopefully I got near the bottom of the knife?

I guess we'll find out within the next three months or so.


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## Choongy (9 June 2013)

I have bought in at average price of $1.37 months ago. Reasons are high dividend yield , bought by directors at around$1.50 mark, always been a top shorted stock, still very solid order book, very low debt levels,profit downgrades by peers ugl,wor etc which may be in similar sector but are totally different stocks altogether when you read their annual reports.
I believe this company will do well when $aud keeps falling, increasing profitability of miners like bho,rio alike, which will maintain current capital works and keep future expansion. About mining boom being over, in 5-7 years time when you look in hindsight, you will be laughing at the comments of top analysts about this.
Now could not be a better time to buy in. Everything runs in cycle. I love a bargain.


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## Boggo (9 June 2013)

Choongy said:


> I have bought in at average price of $1.37 months ago. *Reasons are high dividend yield* , bought by directors at around$1.50 mark, always been a top shorted stock, still very solid order book, very low debt levels,profit downgrades by peers ugl,wor etc which may be in similar sector but are totally different stocks altogether when you read their annual reports.
> I believe this company will do well when $aud keeps falling, increasing profitability of miners like bho,rio alike, which will maintain current capital works and keep future expansion. About mining boom being over, in 5-7 years time when you look in hindsight, you will be laughing at the comments of top analysts about this.
> *Now could not be a better time to buy in.* Everything runs in cycle. I love a bargain.




Two queries regarding the areas I have *in bold* above...
1 - do you understand the dividend yield formula ?
2 - please explain


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## tinhat (13 June 2013)

If anyone has time to have a look at the twenty-one page Form 604 "Notice of change of interests of substantial holder" for Goldman Sachs lodged this morning I would be interested to hear your feedback. Does it give any indication of whether they have finished shorting this stock or is this just noise?

View attachment 130613 nwh.pdf


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## skc (13 June 2013)

tinhat said:


> If anyone has time to have a look at the twenty-one page Form 604 "Notice of change of interests of substantial holder" for Goldman Sachs lodged this morning I would be interested to hear your feedback. Does it give any indication of whether they have finished shorting this stock or is this just noise?
> 
> View attachment 52778




You might get a better picture if you sum up all the rows in buys / sells / borrow and return. That way you can see the net direction. It may be that they were just doing the stock lending and someone else has been shorting it.


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## sinner (13 June 2013)

Porper said:


> Be interested to know if you thought it was a good company at $4.36 just over a year ago?
> 
> It's declined 73.0% since that time. Next support around $0.85. That's the technical side of things. Now tell us why it's a good company fundamentally?




Over a year ago, at 4.36, the company was trading at >27 times 5y avg earnings. That is an earnings yield of ~3% if you purchased on that day. I would say that overvaluation has played just as much a role in the move to ~90c as technicals have! Currently, the multiple is 6, which implies an earnings yield of 16% at 16c in EPS.  i.e. good or bad company, over the longer term (>6 months) then valuations absolutely play a role in outcomes, with the importance of value increasing as the investment term inreases. 

If you buy a company (or the index!) when it's expensive, you can expect poor long term results regardless of the trend. Th*is is a scientifically verified fact at the single name and index level*. Trends occur in both cheap and expensive markets, but 99% of the time, investors only get to keep the fruits of the trend when it's driven by cheap valuations. Overvalued assets can destroy value at an amazing rate, just look at how much the NASDAQ 100 returned between 2000 and 2010.

Stocks are calls against the long term cashflows of a company. Therefore fundamentals absolutely matter when it comes to investing in stocks, and it's simply wrong for Boggo to say that stocks don't react to fundamentals when the entire global rally since Aug 2011 has been off the back of value stocks, with growth stocks significantly underperforming.

I say all of this as an avid technician.


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## McLovin (13 June 2013)

sinner said:


> If you buy a company (or the index!) when it's expensive, you can expect poor long term results regardless of the trend. Th*is is a scientifically verified fact at the single name and index level*. Trends occur in both cheap and expensive markets, but 99% of the time, investors only get to keep the fruits of the trend when it's driven by cheap valuations. Overvalued assets can destroy value at an amazing rate, just look at how much the NASDAQ 100 returned between 2000 and 2010.
> 
> Stocks are calls against the long term cashflows of a company. Therefore fundamentals absolutely matter when it comes to investing in stocks, and it's simply wrong for Boggo to say that stocks don't react to fundamentals when the entire global rally since Aug 2011 has been off the back of value stocks, with growth stocks significantly underperforming.




Great post, Sinner.

The FWD thread is a great example of relatively simple FA in practice. A look at margins and asset utilisation gave plenty of notice the company was operating in a boom. That sort of FA could have been repeated across the mining services industry and would have generated similar results. At the point some of us here were pointing out the unlikelihood of the recent business performance continuing most brokers were still calling them buys.

Now that the boom is passing the real danger is investors seeing big price falls and assuming something has become "cheap". When in fact it's just reverting.

It doesn't matter how great the business, if you overpay, you won't get the return that someone who paid a reasonable price for the same asset achieves.


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## sinner (13 June 2013)

It's also important to note that "value" as defined by a very low P/B, P/B TEV/EBIT multiple, etc is not just correlated with higher performance but also more bankruptices and delistings. In the same way that it doesn't matter whether a company is good or not when it's overvalued, it matters very much whether or not an undervalued company is good or not.

The seminal work on this matter is by Piotroski, who found that taking the value quintile (bottom 20% of market by P/B) outperformed each year, but that over 50% of the stocks in the quintile actually underperformed! A strategy to sort the quintile into two halves of high and low quality. running a hedge book of long high quality value short low quality value produced 20% CAGRs from the period 1976-1996.

"Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" - Piotroski.

I finished reading "Quantitative Value" a couple of months ago, and they provide their own (slightly better IMHO) version of the Piotroski score.


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## skc (13 June 2013)

sinner said:


> "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" - Piotroski.
> 
> I finished reading "Quantitative Value" a couple of months ago, and they provide their own (slightly better IMHO) version of the Piotroski score.




Thanks for the reference. You are such a walking library of trading and investing research papers. I have no idea when you find the time to locate them or read them (or not fall asleep whilst reading).


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## sinner (13 June 2013)

skc said:


> Thanks for the reference. You are such a walking library of trading and investing research papers. I have no idea when you find the time to locate them or read them (or not fall asleep whilst reading).




Love the markets! Grasping one concept makes me realise how little I understand about ten other things so I have to go out and research them. My IT career has largely been in research/academia, and my other personal interest is ethnobotany/ethnopharmacology so I am very used to reading and seeking out journal papers. Usually on the weekend I will spend a fair chunk of time taking new notes and evaluating ideas from my notes.


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## Ves (13 June 2013)

Thank you for the posts, sinner.   I mean this sincerely,  I think it is a credit to you that you have made the effort to understand where some of the fundamental analysists are coming from even though you do not practice it in your own investing style.


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## odds-on (13 June 2013)

sinner said:


> It's also important to note that "value" as defined by a very low P/B, P/B TEV/EBIT multiple, etc is not just correlated with higher performance but also more bankruptices and delistings. In the same way that it doesn't matter whether a company is good or not when it's overvalued, it matters very much whether or not an undervalued company is good or not.
> 
> The seminal work on this matter is by Piotroski, who found that taking the value quintile (bottom 20% of market by P/B) outperformed each year, but that over 50% of the stocks in the quintile actually underperformed! A strategy to sort the quintile into two halves of high and low quality. running a hedge book of long high quality value short low quality value produced 20% CAGRs from the period 1976-1996.
> 
> ...




Sinner,

If you ever get bored, pick a stock, calculate the 5 year average EPS,  multiple by 10, now compare it to the broker forecast range. In my experience this usually gives the lower end of the broker forecast range.

For NWH this calulates to $1.88 and the broker forecast range is $1.25 to $3.08.

Cheers


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## sinner (14 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Thank you for the posts, sinner.   I mean this sincerely,  I think it is a credit to you that you have made the effort to understand where some of the fundamental analysists are coming from even though you do not practice it in your own investing style.




Thanks for the thanks V :

Just a note, while I don't use value in the same way as most on ASF, I do use it as part of my quant toolset in a very similar way to (and inspired by) John Hussman, who I greatly admire. Check out one of his recent weekly commentaries for a simple model which demonstrates the idea and discusses its logical basis 

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130506.htm

I prefer the Ulcer Index over the Sharpe ratio used above, but you get the idea.

EDIT: Sorry for going offtopic.


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## PointBlank (18 July 2013)

So the price is now up to $1.15 - roughly 7% up yesterday and 7.5% so far today. Do you think this is a result of the $32million win for BHP 2 days ago or perhaps because it's getting closer to dividend date. The real question will be can it hold its price (or grow) until div or will it slip?


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## skc (18 July 2013)

PointBlank said:


> So the price is now up to $1.15 - roughly 7% up yesterday and 7.5% so far today. Do you think this is a result of the $32million win for BHP 2 days ago or perhaps because it's getting closer to dividend date. The real question will be can it hold its price (or grow) until div or will it slip?




NWH has revenue of $1.3B last year so a $32m contract is but a rounding error.

The whole sector has a bit of life recently. I suspect coming into reporting season may be some of the short positions are being unwinded...


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## notting (18 July 2013)

skc said:


> NWH has revenue of $1.3B last year so a $32m contract is but a rounding error.
> 
> The whole sector has a bit of life recently. I suspect coming into reporting season may be some of the short positions are being unwinded...




Yeah and we're about 2 months out from dividends and China figures where better than expected and AU$ is down making us a bit more competitive and IO prices haven't gone to $70 as prophesied by the Fu#K Witts at Goldman Sachs whilst calling buys on BHP and RIO and even gold seems to have found a base here and is better against the Ausi as is IO.


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## galumay (18 July 2013)

Yup, i think they were way oversold, all of the factors in the posts above have probably contributed to the share price moving back up towards the IV.

I bought these a little early, nearly square again now and I had no concerns as they dropped down about 20% below what I paid, the fundamentals are good and even allowing for the likely downturn in earnings they still show solid prospects in the medium to long term.

Happy to be a holder of NWH.


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## jazza679 (25 July 2013)

Anybody know why this dropped nearly 15 cents today? I'm not aware of any announcements that could have caused this or is it just investors cashing out profits from gains made last and early this week. It just seems like a large fall for no reason from what I can see.


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## Fifty101 (25 July 2013)

I'm keen to know too. I did notice that a number of mining services companies all dropped today:

BKN  - down 6.38%
MND - down 5.04%
FWD - down 6.08%
NWH - down 13.18%

Odd, considering RIO and BHP were fairly stable.

????????


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## Ves (25 July 2013)

They're probably all down due to the Ausenco (AAX) earnings downgrade announcement this morning.


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## skc (25 July 2013)

jazza679 said:


> Anybody know why this dropped nearly 15 cents today? I'm not aware of any announcements that could have caused this or is it just investors cashing out profits from gains made last and early this week. It just seems like a large fall for no reason from what I can see.




Catepillar earnings were below estimates last night and citing weakness everywhere, and this morning AAX came up with a pretty significant profit downgrade, barely 2.5 months after their AGM. With reporting season just around the corner it may be the start of a fresh wave of downgrades by the sector.


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## Ves (25 July 2013)

skc said:


> *Catepillar earnings* were below estimates last night and citing weakness everywhere, and this morning AAX came up with a pretty significant profit downgrade, barely 2.5 months after their AGM. With reporting season just around the corner it may be the start of a fresh wave of downgrades by the sector.



Thanks - forgot about them from last night.   Explains why SVW also went down 5-6%.


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## galumay (25 July 2013)

Ves said:


> They're probably all down due to the Ausenco (AAX) earnings downgrade announcement this morning.




Thats how I read it too, still happy to hold NWH as I think they are one of the better situated mining services companies and have been oversold IMO.


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## odds-on (26 August 2013)

In April this year I took a position in NWH @ $1.425. This means I now have my underwater swimming badge . NWH released their Annual Report on 22/08/2013. Before reading the report I took a step back to assist my decision making process and thought about the following :

•	I have never worked for an earthmoving company
•	I do not know anybody who works for NWH
•	I do not know anybody who works in the industry
•	I do not live in Australia
•	I am not a qualified accountant
•	My career has been spent working with (and for) cyclical/engineer/contractor type businesses.

All up, I am not going to be able to provide an valuable insight into the business, the only thing I do know is that with these types of businesses (cyclical/engineering/contractor) any attempt at precision is foolish – in my personal experience, agile management is the key to success. I therefore have decided not to put any weight on neither my business insights nor the management propaganda and instead weight my decision on the following:

•	Bankruptcy looks unlikely in the next 6 months
•	They are paying a dividend
•	Above average ROE/ROCE (compared to all listed businesses)
•	Cash of $131 million
•	Order book of $1billion
•	$3.96 billion in active tenders

My investment decision is to HOLD until next company guidance/HY report or a better opportunity… I have actually thought about the opportunity cost of this position to date, there have been two situations where I have been tempted to switch horses; the NCM write-downs and the recent MMS trading halt, both of which I would have been profitable if I had made my move – oh, how I cry.

If pushed to put a price on NWH, the five year snapshot on Page 52 of the Annual Report is worth looking at for 5 minutes before even attempting to put numbers into a spreadsheet to calculate the “Intrinsic Value” using some  formula, it would be a waste of time, so finger in the air estimate, $1.80-$2.40 seems about right to me .

Any thoughts?

Cheers


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## galumay (26 August 2013)

Oddson, I think you are correct to hold. With the benefit of hindsight you could have bought in at a better price - me too, to a lesser extent, I took a position at $1.14. But I agree with your assessment and would add that while the peak of the boom may have passed, the mining industry remains very strong and there will be plenty of work for companies like NWH going forward. 

I reckon they were hugely oversold earlier this year and expect a slow and steady rise in share price over the medium term, we will also get a healthy dividend stream in the meantime. Happy to be a holder and back in the black, don't think it will be too long before you see some positive territory!


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## Country Lad (26 August 2013)

odds-on said:


> My investment decision is to HOLD until next company guidance/HY report or a better opportunity… I have actually thought about the opportunity cost of this position to date, there have been two situations where I have been tempted to switch horses; the NCM write-downs and the recent MMS trading halt, both of which I would have been profitable if I had made my move – oh, how I cry......................Any thoughts?




odds-on, this one is interesting from a technical viewpoint.  We have been talking in other threads about two chart patterns, double bottoms, which has been successful for other charts and flags.  This one has both.

I bought these on the break last Thurs so here is another view.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Country Lad (26 August 2013)

P&F looks nice as well.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## Pioupiou (27 August 2013)

odds-on said:


> . . . If pushed to put a price on NWH, the five year snapshot on Page 52 of the Annual Report is worth looking at for 5 minutes before even attempting to put numbers into a spreadsheet to calculate the “Intrinsic Value” using some  formula, it would be a waste of time, so finger in the air estimate, $1.80-$2.40 seems about right to me .
> 
> Any thoughts?
> 
> Cheers




I think you are right Oddson, and I have always thought NWH was worth something north of $2.00.  The mid-point of your range is $2.10.  I paid on average $1.34, so I am currently in the red, but hopeful as a long-term, dividend-liking investor.  Positive themes are:

* NWH has a pile of cash.
* Its debt relates to hire purchase - not as toxic as corporate debt.
* It is more into civil work than mining services, although mining companies generate much of the civil work.
* NWH has a substantial presence in the Pilbara, and due to low costs, tonnages are expanding, plus some brownfield iron ore mines have been tagged for development.
* State royalties are tonnage based, and the WA Government has a Royalties-for-regions policy, which should translate into civil works from which NWH may get business.


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## tinhat (2 September 2013)

Pioupiou said:


> I think you are right Oddson, and I have always thought NWH was worth something north of $2.00.  The mid-point of your range is $2.10.  I paid on average $1.34, so I am currently in the red, but hopeful as a long-term, dividend-liking investor.  Positive themes are:
> 
> * NWH has a pile of cash.
> * Its debt relates to hire purchase - not as toxic as corporate debt.
> ...




Up-blast! You're back in the money today Pioupiou. $1.49 as I type with lots of demand pushing up the price. I bought my current holding at $1. Makes the accounting easy . But I'm only back in the black recently too having got stopped out in July from an earlier holding bought at $1.20.


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## Pioupiou (2 September 2013)

tinhat said:


> Up-blast! You're back in the money today Pioupiou. $1.49 as I type with lots of demand pushing up the price. I bought my current holding at $1. Makes the accounting easy . But I'm only back in the black recently too having got stopped out in July from an earlier holding bought at $1.20.




Yip, the cockles of my heart were much warmed when I looked at my portfolio's performance at about noon today.

I am an investor type - I tend to buy on fundamentals, especially a company's ability to pay sustainable dividends, and I often hold for a long time.  Being a high-conviction investor, I do not use stops.  To force myself to take enough interest in a stock and investigate it, I like to hurl serious money at a play.  Serious for me is $30K or more.  I have 100,000 NWH at an average of $1.344, so that is an above average punt based on high conviction and a dividend yield on my price that allows me to wait a long time for a correction - years if necessary.

The main purpose of looking for dividend is to reduce the number of stocks that my trawl throws up as a short list, so I never set the dividend-yield filter high.  This knocks out the Ponzi stocks whose main reason for being is to pay those in the inner circle fat wages funded by shareholder subscriptions.  Secondly, a good dividend yield allows me to hold a share for a long time if I think Mr Market has got it wrong.  A high sustainable dividend yield may simply be the corollary of a low SP, so if I am right in my decision to buy, I get a good yield, plus a capital gain down the track.

Since I have adopted the above investing policy, I seem to have done better than in earlier times, but this could also simply spring from timing.  One has to be aware of the hoary "Post hoc, ergo propter hoc" fallacy.


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## PinguPingu (19 September 2013)

Looks to be at a crossroads with the short term up trend from July just hanging in vs the long term down trend from early '12.


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## Sergio (30 September 2013)

how about now?

i see resistance has become support?



i might be wrong though......


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## odds-on (13 November 2013)

The continued (and justified) negative sentiment in the mining service sector will mostly likely continue and maintain a negative pressure on the SP of NWH. The recent company announcements have not changed my view on NWH and I intend to continuing holding until earning guidance/financial report. The temptation is to start using the negative sentiment to incrementally average down into NWH whilst being realistic about market valuations that NWH will achieve in the next 6 months or so (an earning announcement/financial report will be very damaging in the current market)

Has anybody got any experience in these type of medium term averaging down situations? I am sitting on some cash and there are no other opportunities that take my fancy.

I got it wrong with ASL, fingers crossed I get it right with NWH


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## Pioupiou (15 November 2013)

Oddson

Never mind about what you paid for NWH in the past, and do not confuse ASL's business and circumstances (debt for one) with NWH's situation.  Work out what NWH does, where it does it, and guesstimate what is going to happen to its business, then figure out what you would pay for it.  If, relative to the SP, the value is there, then consider buying, and if you think there is a better place to put your money, then forget about NWH.

If you proffer your views on how NWH's business might perform in 2014 and beyond, and why you think so, then we can get a useful conversation going, and then we would have the basis for a valuation.  Thereafter it will be time to consider the buy-in SP and timing.

I hold 100,000 NWH, and I think it will do better than Mr Marklet thinks.


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## ricee007 (3 December 2013)

Definitely not a market baby at the moment unfortunately.

I'm now about even overall.


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## piggybank (28 December 2013)




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## odds-on (2 March 2014)

odds-on said:


> In April this year I took a position in NWH @ $1.425. This means I now have my underwater swimming badge . NWH released their Annual Report on 22/08/2013. Before reading the report I took a step back to assist my decision making process and thought about the following :
> 
> •	I have never worked for an earthmoving company
> •	I do not know anybody who works for NWH
> ...




Before reading the HY report, I reminded myself of the points above i.e. not being as accountant and so on. The key impression I got from the HY report was that management were playing it safe, which is the right thing to do and maybe it will payoff in the long term by allowing them to achieve a dominant position in the industry. I have to accept I just do not understand enough about the industry to accurately assess this payoff - it is basically a gamble for me. The strong balance sheet means that NWH is a reasonably safe punt  dependant on your buy price; unfortunately I paid too much too early. I have sold my position and will stay in cash until something  attractive comes along.

The last 12 months has been an education 

Cheers


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## galumay (2 March 2014)

odds-on said:


> The strong balance sheet means that NWH is a reasonably safe punt  dependant on your buy price; unfortunately I paid too much too early. I have sold my position and will stay in cash until something  attractive comes along.
> 
> The last 12 months has been an education
> 
> Cheers




Interesting decision, I hold, but got in a lot cheaper than you, even so I wonder about selling out at a loss, unless you have another opportunity that is more attractive I would have thought it may be better to hold and see if you couldnt get back in the black. They have pushed up near your purchase price in recent times.


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## odds-on (2 March 2014)

galumay said:


> Interesting decision, I hold, but got in a lot cheaper than you, even so I wonder about selling out at a loss, unless you have another opportunity that is more attractive I would have thought it may be better to hold and see if you couldnt get back in the black. They have pushed up near your purchase price in recent times.




Hi Galumay,

The loss is small and water off a duck's back!

My personal view is that in the short-term it is more likely to go alot lower, especially as all of the mining services companies that i follow have reported poor profitability. The industry is struggling and margins will no doubt get tighter. The dividend cut indicates to me that management expect a tough year and I would rather have my money in cash than a business that expects a tough year. It has been an education - the market is broadly efficient and I should have listened.

Cheers


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## tinhat (2 March 2014)

I'm underwater 1.3% percent overall on this company (took a stop loss before buying back in lower). With a 4cps interim and assuming a 5cps final dividend, it's yielding 9% before franking credits for me. Dividend trap? At only a 50% payout ratio I do suspect the dividend is sustainable over the next couple of years given that they do have work in hand including Roy Hill. I'm surprised it's been sold down so much since the report. Unless the share price collapses, I'll probably hold.


----------



## kmlk (30 September 2014)

Hey Guys

Looking to jump into NWH,

I understand profit is down a lot, however company has strong contract books + reduced their loans (Debits), considerably PE ratio is at 5.6,

Dividend is almost 10%, 

Unless I'm not seeing something, I think this is possibly a buy? Any opinions, would like to get in before ex div date of 10/10/14


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## kmlk (30 September 2014)

I also noticed that EBIT was this low, back in 2010 (when share price was at similar level), and even then it was trading at 93c mark... how much lower can this stock go?


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## Klogg (1 October 2014)

kmlk said:


> Hey Guys
> 
> Looking to jump into NWH,
> 
> ...




I actually own this, but something to consider is the amount of revenue coming from the Roy Hill project. There's been no definite cost per tonne of IO from this project, but Iron Ore has dropped hugely in recent months.

Consider the fact that NWH's direct customers may still pull projects as a result and look at who's on the Order Book.


----------



## kmlk (1 October 2014)

Klogg said:


> I actually own this, but something to consider is the amount of revenue coming from the Roy Hill project. There's been no definite cost per tonne of IO from this project, but Iron Ore has dropped hugely in recent months.
> 
> Consider the fact that NWH's direct customers may still pull projects as a result and look at who's on the Order Book.




That's true, I believe on their report I read they mentioned that they will diversify into oil etc... I guess its all 'talk' untill deals are signed...


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## kmlk (1 October 2014)

Well I ended up getting some today and RCG, both my gut was telling me that they were good value 

Thanks for your input


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## jbocker (25 November 2014)

Been watching this for a while, and couldn't resist buying in today, when its price dropped over 17%.

I think the business is generally run pretty well, and I will hold for the longer term when the general mining industry picks up again. In the meantime existing mines will still require services and equipment where I trust well run businesses will outperform their competitors.


----------



## Klogg (25 November 2014)

jbocker said:


> Been watching this for a while, and couldn't resist buying in today, when its price dropped over 17%.
> 
> I think the business is generally run pretty well, and I will hold for the longer term when the general mining industry picks up again. In the meantime existing mines will still require services and equipment where I trust well run businesses will outperform their competitors.




I don't disagree with anything you've said as a generic statement, but what are your thoughts on issues with payment from Samsung?

The write-down of goodwill and assets was somewhat a given in my book.


----------



## jbocker (25 November 2014)

Klogg said:


> I don't disagree with anything you've said as a generic statement, but what are your thoughts on issues with payment from Samsung?
> 
> The write-down of goodwill and assets was somewhat a given in my book.




Yes it is a problem, hopefully this has already impacted the price, we will need to wait till after Xmas to find out. It will be an interesting outcome and will tell us much about the management.


----------



## KnowThePast (25 November 2014)

Klogg said:


> I don't disagree with anything you've said as a generic statement, but what are your thoughts on issues with payment from Samsung?
> 
> The write-down of goodwill and assets was somewhat a given in my book.




Same here. I thought the price below $1 had this kind of result factored in, so the big drop on this news surprised me.


----------



## skc (26 November 2014)

KnowThePast said:


> Same here. I thought the price below $1 had this kind of result factored in, so the big drop on this news surprised me.




I don't know if the market factored in Roy Hill not being paid. Today's sell-off is mere 10c per share or $28m fall in market cap. Roy Hill rail is $620m contract... a $28m dispute is <5% which is a small problem on project of this scale. It is because NWH is <$1 that the reaction was't more savage.

Compare to say UGL which announced a potential $100m provision (it's 50% share of a $860m power project - albeit more complicated than a rail civils work) it's market value fell by around $130m.

I am surprised that NWH wasn't punished more... given how quickly FGE went from "strong balance sheet" to "VA appointed'. A bad stuff up at Roy Hilll may raise existential issues for NWH.


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## jbocker (1 March 2015)

I have bailed out of this company at 44% loss. 
Been a while with talks with Samsung. I hear they are going to sort it out in March. Unclear future, 200M of the 900M order book is confirmed revenue next half. The order book was 1B-1.2B at last report (Nov). No dividend.

Will sit and watch for a while. (Now that I am out it will probably do very well  )
Good luck to holders.


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## galumay (1 March 2015)

jbocker said:


> Will sit and watch for a while. (Now that I am out it will probably do very well  )
> Good luck to holders.




I reckon it will take a while to recover, no doubt they are in a sector where you need big hairy, contrarian, gonads to be buying. I think that they will recover a bit in March when the Samsung contractural issue is resolved, mainly because they have taken all the costs and zero profit on the H1 books, so whatever they get will go onto the bottom line 100%.

It certainly takes an act of faith to hold now the dividend is suspended, but that was the only responsible action to take given the impairments and Samsung situation.

I continue to hold, looking at adding some more if they hang around the mid 20s.


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## skc (31 August 2015)

It's been a long time between posts on NWH.

The overall macro environment has gotten deciding worse for all mining contractors. Most major commodities are at post boom lows, and there are increasingly hungry operators competing for an ever-shrinking pie.

NWH for one has dramatically reduced headcount from 3092 from Jun 2014 to 846 in Jun 2015. Only $250m or so revenue is in place for FY16, against a total order book of $663m. Cash on the balance sheet has reduced from $155.5m down to $34.6m, while debt stands at $142m.

None of this is helped by contract dispute at Roy Hill. It's hard to get a handle on the numbers with this, but it's clear it's a major factor to NWH's. NWH is relying on it's lending group being supportive whilst the dispute is being resolved... 

I wonder how the market will react to the report tomorrow...


----------



## VSntchr (8 October 2015)

skc said:


> None of this is helped by contract dispute at Roy Hill. It's hard to get a handle on the numbers with this, but it's clear it's a major factor to NWH's. NWH is relying on it's lending group being supportive whilst the dispute is being resolved...



A bit of a win for NWH today with regard to the dispute with Samsung.


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## tinhat (8 October 2015)

VSntchr said:


> A bit of a win for NWH today with regard to the dispute with Samsung.




One win on Tuesday (around $15m from memory) and another today (around $8) - both WA supreme court decisions upholding the adjudicator's rulings. At least another $31m to come to NWH in the form of release of a bond held by Samsung. Still more millions of under dispute to be resolved yet. Share price doubled on lifting of trading halt.


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## explod (19 February 2016)

How's this today,  up 180% 

The big leader in our stock tipping comp.  

Love to know your methods systamatic,  well done.


----------



## notting (19 February 2016)

Bank busting short squeeze hell!
That all happened in 2 hours. Unbelievable.
Some poor geezers (without auto stops in place) who were having the Friday afternoon off will not be enjoying the weekend!
Sellers still offloading at 18, see if they can get rid of it all or it just goes back to the bottom of the dam.


----------



## skc (19 February 2016)

notting said:


> Bank busting short squeeze hell!
> That all happened in 2 hours. Unbelievable.
> Some poor geezers (without auto stops in place) who were having the Friday afternoon off will not be enjoying the weekend!
> Sellers still offloading at 18, see if they can get rid of it all or it just goes back to the bottom of the dam.




I watched the open and lost interest after 15 minutes... I thought it'd trip between 10-10.5c and dribble away into the 
close. I also thought they must be close to reporting and I didn't want to hold when they go into the announcement.

No... I didn't expect the afternoon boom and by the time I saw it it was already 16.5c.

The reported numbers after close actually aren't half bad. Half year profit = $6.1m, debt repayment pushed back and cash flow is quite strong, although I wonder if it included the settlement money from Roy Hill. Either way it has a chance of holding most of the gains come Monday.


----------



## systematic (19 February 2016)

explod said:


> How's this today,  up 180%
> 
> The big leader in our stock tipping comp.
> 
> Love to know your methods systamatic,  well done.




Cheers mate...but you're too kind; what about you in the '16 comp?  Off like a rocket...


----------



## tinhat (28 July 2016)

NRW was hit with a speeding ticket today. It certainly has taken off. (I hold). It opened up a gap too.


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## galumay (28 July 2016)

NWH was certainly overdue a re-rating, its one of the better mining services companies and has emerged in good shape. I bought in too early, but averaged down and back in the black now. I wont be surprised to see it make it back to round $1 later this year.


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## galumay (14 August 2017)

Interesting acquisition of Golding Group announced today with a capital raising and some increased debt. I dont have an opinion yet as I havent had time to dissect the details.


----------



## VSntchr (15 August 2017)

galumay said:


> Interesting acquisition of Golding Group announced today with a capital raising and some increased debt. I dont have an opinion yet as I havent had time to dissect the details.



1.6x EBITDA multiple...
One has to question why they are getting it so cheap!?
They are buying a company with similar revenue and earnings to their own, at a fraction of the price.
Maybe Golding lost their negotiation power with a pretty poor order book past FY18?


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## galumay (15 August 2017)

I know NWH have been looking at Golding for 10 years or so. The apparent cheapness also struck me at first glance.


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## galumay (15 August 2017)

BOOM! up more than 35% this morning. Nice little boost to my holdings in personal and SMSF portfolios.


----------



## skc (15 August 2017)

VSntchr said:


> 1.6x EBITDA multiple...
> One has to question why they are getting it so cheap!?
> They are buying a company with similar revenue and earnings to their own, at a fraction of the price.
> Maybe Golding lost their negotiation power with a pretty poor order book past FY18?



 NWH itself only trading at 2-3x from memory.


galumay said:


> BOOM! up more than 35% this morning. Nice little boost to my holdings in personal and SMSF portfolios.



Well done.


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2017)

Oh boy. I've been holding this stock for years. I didn't have a stop loss in place and took my eye off the market when this baby crashed all the way down to $0.04. FU Gina Rinehart! I will be back in the black if the stock price holds up after the share offer. I never thought I would get my money back on this one.


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## agumby (16 August 2017)

Bought into this one in 2014 at $1.11 and then as newby investor i chased a falling knife all the way down and then bought heaps of them cheap at $0.056 with some lazy cash i was prepared to loose. At one stage i had 45000 but have sold some off on the way back up but still hold 29000. May be time to lower my exposure some more


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## galumay (16 August 2017)

tinhat said:


> Oh boy. I've been holding this stock for years.




I have held it for a few years, bought most of my initial position around $1, I always believed the market was wrong about NWH and I patiently accumulated - I ended up averaging down well under 50c. 

I have had a few holdings like this where my conviction was very strong, my patience long and nerves strong, with the result in the end that they have become very profitable holdings.

Its not easy though, you need good research and analysis skills to be able to have the strength of conviction and you need strong filters to shut out the 'noise', loads of patience to sit out the turnaround, and nerves of steel not to panic and sell. You also need a strategy with regard to the process of averaging down.

Of course you need to do it with the right businesses too, otherwise you will simply destroy capital as you end up heavily invested in a business that goes broke or never has any liklihood of recovery.

Finally you need to remind yourself that most of the time the market stays irrational longer than you can sit patiently!


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## galumay (17 August 2017)

Good result for NWH for the FY, looking very strong now. I really like management's decision not to pay a divvy until they have bedded down the Godfrey's acquisition and focus on debt reduction -  thats long term thinking in terms of shareholder value that is all too rare.


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## HelloU (4 October 2018)

I am busy right now, but I will get to you NWH - ur goodness has not gone unnoticed.


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## PinguPingu (8 October 2018)

Wow what a ride on NWH. Only picked it up on a momentum scan at 1.75 but threatening to break out again.


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## galumay (8 October 2018)

Its a good example of what good management can achieve in a business, it also allows an investor to have high conviction, i bought the 'falling knife' all the way down to 25c from $1 - and rode the successful turnaround all the way back up due to my high conviction in the business and its fundamental financials, industry competency, project reputation and management competence.


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## PinguPingu (9 October 2018)

Sorry guys, I added at 2$ and the stock shot right through


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## ah13 (28 December 2018)

Reasons for top pick Full CY 2019 competition:

The business turnaround is well underway with eps having grown by 72% in FY 17, 24% in FY 18 and consensus forecast eps growth for FY 19 is for a further 83% growth
Even if FY19 eps growth is only half analysts predictions, at current prices NWH is on a PE of <10
On 19/12/18 they confirmed their guidance for H1 FY19 with revenue increase expected to be 45% and EBITDA increase expected to be 74%.


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## HelloU (14 February 2019)

10%-5% pa reducing ongoing is dalangara (and loan). my head says a slight wobble if things go ass up (like if 0.6g persists).

meh ....next


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## HelloU (14 February 2019)

HelloU said:


> 10%-5% pa reducing ongoing is dalangara (and loan). my head says a slight wobble if things go ass up (like if 0.6g persists).
> 
> meh ....next



and to paraphrase that head speak ... keep riding and buy the wobble.

(my head said toot toot - but i did not include that ..... anyone in CIM?)


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## HelloU (18 March 2019)

HelloU said:


> 10%-5% pa reducing ongoing is dalangara (and loan). my head says a slight wobble if things go ass up (like if 0.6g persists).
> 
> meh ....next



and did dalangara just go ass up, or will this mob dig deeper into the piggy bank?
(i wouldn't)... (found my cim info so forget that ask)


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## galumay (18 April 2019)

NWH back in the ASX200 yesterday, popped 6% today and now my first 10 bagger, up 1030% from my entry.


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## galumay (17 May 2019)

NRW awarded Koodaideri Rail Formation South Earthworks contract. 

Boom! squiffy pop again for me, up 9% or 24c.


----------



## HelloU (23 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> and to paraphrase that head speak ... keep riding and buy the wobble.
> 
> (my head said toot toot - but i did not include that ..... anyone in CIM?)



quick 50c in 2 weeks post dip and on to highs ................. cd players in the hilux - ahhh the technology - these miners are going soft. what is happening at dalangara?
(civmec seem to struggle .... but for how long?)


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## galumay (23 May 2019)

Its a juggernaut, HelloU. If NWH can continue to execute well and control costs as the business grows I think it has a solid future in front of it. Hopefully the lessons of the past have been etched in corporate memory! Its a game of skinny margins, cyclical activity and ruthless multinational corporate clients so its a bit like ice skating in late spring!


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## HelloU (31 May 2019)

HelloU said:


> and to paraphrase that head speak ... keep riding and buy the wobble.
> 
> (my head said toot toot - but i did not include that ..... anyone in CIM?)






HelloU said:


> and did dalangara just go ass up, or will this mob dig deeper into the piggy bank?
> (i wouldn't)... (found my cim info so forget that ask)




the old short then long play


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## galumay (3 June 2019)

Looks like the end for Dalangara, GCY in administation.


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## galumay (22 August 2019)

Another stellar year for NWH, results inline with expectations, NPAT dropped from PRP, but NWH went from having significant tax losses to use last year, to paying significant tax this year, so not unexpected. Cash flow remain strong, capital management is positive as well, structural debt soon be zero and only debt will be asset leases. Mr Market liked the result.


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## HelloU (22 August 2019)

yep, at the same time as the "P" blokes got the go slow message at Bald Hill. So thumbs up here.

(and the mob that these are still .....ummmmmm .... doing work for at Dalangara, well they did not pay their asx fees this week, so nrw are now doing a "black op" there - in profit though one would assume atm).


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## galumay (28 November 2019)

Another strategic acquisition by NWH, again showing good execution by management, this company is building into something pretty special. I will be applying for my full allocation in the SPP. It could quickly head north of $3 with this latest move.


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## rnr (21 December 2019)

NWH continues to head north. A BO-NH looks to be on the agenda before too long.


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## galumay (22 December 2019)

rnr said:


> NWH continues to head north




Recent rise has been the effect of the announced acquisition, NWH have a good track record with aquisitions and this one looks good on paper too. SPP will be hugely oversubscribed given the effective discount. 

I applied for my full allocation of $15k in personal portfolio and SMSF, I will be surprised to get anything more than $2k.


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## galumay (7 January 2020)

Ok, SPP results announced, oversubscribed of course, better than expected scale back, we will get 64% of application.


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## Trav. (22 May 2020)

I am following this stock as I have selected it the the yearly tipping contest and thankfully it had a good day yesterday up 32% following the release of the update

Closed @ $2.19 so hopefully it can consolidate at these levels for a while.

Financial Performance (unaudited 10 months to April 2020)
• Record Revenue of $1.6B(1); the result, for only 10 months, represents a record revenue for the
group compared to any previous full financial year.
• EBITDA(2) of $177M; pre adoption of AASB16.
• Continued strong earnings generation with normalised earnings, EBITA(3) of $107M.
• Significant improvement in net debt (cash less interest bearing debt) at 30th April 2020 to $115M.
• A much lower AASB 16 debt of circa $60M expected to be reported as at June 30thFurther reviews
of equipment rental agreements are expected to reduce the liability recognised in the half year
accounts at?$122M.​


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## galumay (22 May 2020)

One of the best of the Mining services businesses IMO, yesterday's announcement a reflection of the steady hand of excellent management at the helm. A double spiffy pop for me yesterday! (making up ground lost of course.)


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## galumay (19 August 2020)

Just steamrolling along, as expected a record revenue and 100% increase in divvy is nice. The best performer in my portfolio even at the price well off its ATH from earlier in the year.


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## Dona Ferentes (19 August 2020)

galumay said:


> One of the best of the Mining services businesses IMO, yesterday's announcement a reflection of the steady hand of excellent management at the helm



The Mining Services outfits that have good management, strong balance sheets, loyal/ skilled workforces and repeat contracts have stayed the distance. But it is a cyclical sector, and dividend flow is important.

Below, the SPs for NRW (purple), LYL (red) and MND (blue) since 2007. No real need to own more than one? It would be nice to think the next few years echo post 2009


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## galumay (19 August 2020)

I think you are right @Dona Ferentes - one is probably enough, unless you have special knowledge! $NWH has created the most value - by virtue of how cheap it got when it was in trouble with non-payment of a major contract. 

It made it a 10+ bagger for me, you dont get many opportunities like that in an investing life, needs deep conviction, buckets of luck and oodles of patience. 

I have also owned MND in the past, but took my profits there. 

If you can stomach the cycles, then as you say, look for a strong balance sheet, better margins and nimble management.


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## Dona Ferentes (19 August 2020)

galumay said:


> I think you are right @Dona Ferentes - one is probably enough, unless you have special knowledge! $NWH has created the most value - by virtue of how cheap it got when it was in trouble with non-payment of a major contract.
> 
> It made it a 10+ bagger for me, you dont get many opportunities like that in an investing life, needs deep conviction, buckets of luck and oodles of patience.
> 
> ...



MND is mine .... bought just as the China story was taking off ... 2005 soon after it floated. Paid $4 a share, then there was a 4 for 1 split, so I am similar to you. Notionally *x10 *plus healthy though fluctuating dividends along the way. So good to see management still there, and aligning with shareholders. And not bidding just for work.

I have noticed margins are a bit skinnier as the contractors moved into maintenance, and also away from the big lucrative mega projects. But a necessary move to keep the work rolling in.


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## Dona Ferentes (5 December 2020)

and there has been a lift in the contractors, over the last few weeks especially,.

Iron ore price holding high (Vale is not rebounding as expected) and economies recovering after Covid

MND ... dark blue
NWH ... red
LYL ..... in light blue


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## galumay (5 December 2020)

For some reason this sector seemed to have been missed in the froth & bubble of the last few months, most capital I allocated in that period went in that direction and the last few weeks has seen me nicely rewarded as they have started to catch up.


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## peter2 (13 May 2021)

Since the beginning of 2021 the price of *NWH* has been going down. There's no sign of it pausing or slowing down at the moment. The downward momentum started after release of the NRW Half Year Results. Price gapped down in response to the news. I must admit the news didn't look to bad to me. The market showed that it had a different opinion. 

I've been patiently waiting for a reversal opportunity but price has been sold down once again even though *NWH* reports new work contracts. Perhaps the takeover of Primero isn't going as well as instos would like. 

Nothing of note on the chart currently. I'm wondering if the current lower price is near investor valuations yet?


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## galumay (13 May 2021)

Hey Peter, well below even my conservative valuation. Its just an unloved sector for some reason, i have owned NWH for years, still one of my best ever performing businesses. I really cant understand why its so cheap, its a great business, very well run, a series of well executed acquisitions over the years, well diversified now, heaps of contracted work in the pipeline. I would add more but I already hold a massive amount of it, still one of my biggest positions at today's price.

Its best in class in the mining services game IMO, the metrics I look at are all very strong for any business let alone one in this industry, gross margins over 58%, FCF Yield 7%, ROIIC over 11%, my range of valuation which is always conservative is over $2.

Of course it may well go down a lot further before market sentiment changes, so I have no idea whether its suitable for trading.


----------



## peter2 (13 May 2021)

@galumay  Thanks for your comments. I was interested in your opinion on *NWH*. I hadn't seen any published reason for the price decline. Clearly *NWH* is unloved at the moment. If the business is being managed as well as you say then other investors will notice it soon. 

*NWH* is suitable for medium term traders like myself because in the past, when price moves, the moves are smooth (with low volatility). This makes it easy to hold while letting the revaluation swing play out. 

I'll place *NWH* in my reversal watch list and wait for the bottom and subsequent buy setup.


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## finicky (10 July 2021)

Weekly chart is giving some cause for optimism. Last three candles bullish and divergence in a few indicators. Monthly chart not looking as bright and quarterly chart not showing any reversal signs yet that I can see. Seems to be getting plenty of work and the infrastructure services was expecting increased work from government's 'post' covid stimulus projects back in Feb's HY report. First Half reported 28% ebitda increase over pcp but noted decreased margin for some mineral projects due to Covid restrictions impeding transit of resources. It looks undervalued based on historical performance if you overlook one calamitous year. Overall not one I want to risk now myself due to everything generally seeming so vulnerable and because it took on $50m more debt to partially fund the Primero acquisition. I do get though that they have been paying off debt too. Also the possible chart reversal is not emphatic yet. Primero does seem good, blue ribbon clients and got the Tietto Minerals (TIE) gold mine contract. Just my notions.

3 Year Weekly


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## galumay (11 July 2021)

From a fundamental point of view its got very cheap, its one of the best in the sector IMO, management showed their ability a few years ago when they ran into terrible problems with a head contractor failing to pay them. The acquisitions over the years have been sensible and capital allocation has been prudent (never carry debt for long). It has very good ROIIC for a mining services business, strong FCF yield and looks pretty cheap on my calculation of range of value. I have been adding when its under $1.50.

I think it could be a FY result that disappoints some, as the effects of Covid on the business has driven costs up, so it may present a better buying opportunity in a month or so, but also the chance they surprise to the positive. So that may be something to think about for those wishing to trade it.


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## peter2 (12 July 2021)

Didn't enter my order over night and slept in. Expensive sleep in.





	

		
			
		

		
	
   Will wait for the retest of the low.

One up day isn't going the change the down trend but it's nice to see that there's some demand for this company, finally.


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## Country Lad (12 July 2021)

peter2 said:


> Didn't enter my order over night and slept in. Expensive sleep in.



Till after 10am?  I wish I could do that.


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## galumay (12 July 2021)

LOL! Sorry to hear that Peter, thankfully I topped up again last week. Seems Mr Market particularly liked the news about paying down the debt with the proceeds of the sale.


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## galumay (4 August 2022)

galumay said:


> I think it could be a FY result that disappoints some, as the effects of Covid on the business has driven costs up, so it may present a better buying opportunity in a month or so, but also the chance they surprise to the positive. So that may be something to think about for those wishing to trade it.




I guess I covered all outcomes with that comment! But partly correct -


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## galumay (18 August 2022)

Busy day for NWH! Final results released, as we knew another great year for NWH. Also a merger offer for MLD which looked very attractive but MLD management rejected it. 

Anyway, should see a re rate with confirmation of excellent results and strong cash conversion.


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## divs4ever (18 August 2022)

galumay said:


> Busy day for NWH! Final results released, as we knew another great year for NWH. Also a merger offer for MLD which looked very attractive but MLD management rejected it.
> 
> Anyway, should see a re rate with confirmation of excellent results and strong cash conversion.



aha ! 

 caught a glimpse of the take-over headline ( before being distracted )  and thought it was the reverse  , which seemed to me strange 

 i had a successful run with NWH a few years  back   , but since the governments  are not doing enough in the infrastructure investment  cycle 

 i didn't come back to research this for a second adventure  ( i was waiting for the mining investment cycle to crater )


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## galumay (18 August 2022)

I dont look at macro or cycles, my crystal balls are useless. I just try to buy resilient, well managed businesses at a significant discount to value and hold for a very long time. It tends to make the fortune cookies irrelevant!


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## divs4ever (18 August 2022)

i take note of various cycles   , but don't hold my breath waiting for them  ( am more likely  to pursue something currently at  good value )

 i bought NWH as low as 18.5 cents  , i was hoping  for a sub $1 opportunity to reappear ( civilian infrastructure contracts are rarely sexy in the investing world )


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## galumay (18 August 2022)

Yep, i bought them at about 20c, but that was nothing to do with macro or cyclicals, it was the Mitsubishi legal wrangle that drove them down so low. I think you may die of old age before they get down to $1 again! The reason its only $2 something is because mining services is not sexy! If it was running data centres or selling some crappy software on subs it would be $20.


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## divs4ever (18 August 2022)

galumay said:


> Yep, i bought them at about 20c, but that was nothing to do with macro or cyclicals, it was the Mitsubishi legal wrangle that drove them down so low. I think you may die of old age before they get down to $1 again! The reason its only $2 something is because mining services is not sexy! If it was running data centres or selling some crappy software on subs it would be $20.



 it won't be old age that gets me  , but may  NWH will find another hiccup and maybe not 

 i hold some rival mining services companies  and they are travelling OK ( except DCG )

 i don't need sexy  , i need income ( rather than capital gains ) however mining services companies hit those big speed bumps  ( giving you a chance to buy cheap )


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## peter2 (21 November 2022)

*NWH* has shown it's strength relative to the index over the past three months (wkly chart). If price can close above the 2.65 this break out should see it go higher to near $3.00 (old high).


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## galumay (21 November 2022)

Sooner or later it had to rerate, its such a strong business, one of the best in the sector. Underpriced relative to value for a long time.


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