# CIM - CIMIC Group



## barney (19 February 2007)

Could not find a thread on  LEI, so I thought I'd start one ........... This has had an incredible spike the last few days for a big blue chip ............. Just wondering if any fundamentalists out there can put a spin on whether the current sp represents "true value" 

I'm interested from  a contrarian point of view cause often good news is "overbought" ................ I know their profit increased by about 60% ?? half year, but does this represent an increase of almost 50% in the sp over the last 3 weeks ............. any thoughts from those much better versed in fundamentals than I would be appreciated. Cheers, Barney


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## michael_selway (19 February 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



			
				barney said:
			
		

> Could not find a thread on  LEI, so I thought I'd start one ........... This has had an incredible spike the last few days for a big blue chip ............. Just wondering if any fundamentalists out there can put a spin on whether the current sp represents "true value"
> 
> I'm interested from  a contrarian point of view cause often good news is "overbought" ................ I know their profit increased by about 60% ?? half year, but does this represent an increase of almost 50% in the sp over the last 3 weeks ............. any thoughts from those much better versed in fundamentals than I would be appreciated. Cheers, Barney




Hm i want to see new thew forcast EPS, below is new but before teh annoucment

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 119.5 24.4 19.5% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 131.5 22.2 10.0% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 100.0 119.5 131.5 125.3 
DPS 66.0 76.0 83.0 79.0 * 

thx

MS


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## Buffettology (9 April 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Cannot beleive there is no discussion on this thread.  Everyone is too overconcerned with Uranium etc.  This is a company that is a golden apple on the ASX.  Not sure about now though, it has spiked incredibly but it was always a solid company.  Wait for a fall, and Im jumping back on board without doubt.


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## michael_selway (9 April 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Buffettology said:


> Cannot beleive there is no discussion on this thread.  Everyone is too overconcerned with Uranium etc.  This is a company that is a golden apple on the ASX.  Not sure about now though, it has spiked incredibly but it was always a solid company.  Wait for a fall, and Im jumping back on board without doubt.




I think its worth about $20, if you look at the numbers below and access the upside/downside risk factors etc

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 144.3 24.6 44.3% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 170.5 20.9 18.2% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 100.0 144.3 170.5 177.1 
DPS 66.0 95.9 110.0 119.2 *

thx

MS


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## the barry (21 May 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Lei just announced a joint venture deal in india worth 2.5 billion over 5 years to the company. Has had an unbelievable run of late due to a series of profit upgrades. The latest announcement should continue that trend.


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## legs (22 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Look at this bollinger squeeze and what has happened last two squeezes... every indiacator here says buy, buy, buy.... I haven't the opportunity until Monday..I hope i dont miss the boat.. 
THOUGHTS??


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## Santob (23 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Ok for the newbie here, Bollinger bands give an indication of volatility, yes typically a squeeze indicates a period of low stability, usually followed by a period of unstability. BUT...what are the other indicators you're using to indicate the price is going up? BBands themselves cannot forecast upward or downward movements.


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## legs (23 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Santob said:


> Ok for the newbie here, Bollinger bands give an indication of volatility, yes typically a squeeze indicates a period of low stability, usually followed by a period of unstability. BUT...what are the other indicators you're using to indicate the price is going up? BBands themselves cannot forecast upward or downward movements.




Ummm the rest of the indicators on the chart... 
1: RSI isnt too high...about 60,
2: MACD about the cross upwards, my opinion only, but looking upwards,
3: Slow Stochastic IS on the way up. 

I could have put more like 
4: the Williams % R of -20 is good
5: Money Flow is high. 

I am relatively new to this as well, but has proved successful as in my OSH post #174  proved true. 

Still only my Opinion... take it on own will.


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## Santob (23 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



legs said:


> Ummm the rest of the indicators on the chart...
> 1: RSI isnt too high...about 60,
> 2: MACD about the cross upwards, my opinion only, but looking upwards,
> 3: Slow Stochastic IS on the way up.
> ...




Sorry, my post didn't really indicate it correctly, but - I'm the newbie here  - I'll have to investigate how these BBands work a bit more closely now.


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## thierry (28 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Where to from here with this stock.. does anyone know any broker recommendations for this stock.. or 12 - month price targets.. 

It appears to be very volatile at the moment.


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## Santob (28 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I hope Legs missed the boat  Maybe the Next Monday will be a better time to buy.

Legs' Analysis was somewhat correct...I think


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## legs (28 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Santob said:


> I hope Legs missed the boat  Maybe the Next Monday will be a better time to buy.
> 
> Legs' Analysis was somewhat correct...I think




I got in and i am  down currently 9.8%. OUCH this is going to come back up i hope. I am nearly stopped out, i set it way too low i think.


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## Damuzzdu (28 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



thierry said:


> Where to from here with this stock.. does anyone know any broker recommendations for this stock.. or 12 - month price targets..
> 
> It appears to be very volatile at the moment.




Macquarie Private Wealth have an outperform on LEI with a 12 month target of $42.04. However, I dont really pay much attention to these targets to be frank.
Point in case MPW have ZFX on neutral rating for now 8-9 months and 12 month price of $14.80, and yet ZFX is now at $18.52 and been as high as $19.62 and has outperformed the market (ASX200) easily in past 9 months. 

Cheers
Muzz


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## aussiebuggaa (28 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



legs said:


> I got in and i am  down currently 9.8%. OUCH this is going to come back up i hope. I am nearly stopped out, i set it way too low i think.




I knew I’ll find you here some where Legs.   

William R% is now at 100%, Fast Stochastic at 0.  Other indicators don’t show much of a recovery trail, but personally I think it should be a bounce back soon.  I think I’ll get in once I see an up trail.


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## Julia (28 June 2007)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



thierry said:


> Where to from here with this stock.. does anyone know any broker recommendations for this stock.. or 12 - month price targets..
> 
> It appears to be very volatile at the moment.



This is one of my long term holds.  Perhaps if you take a look at, say, the two year chart, you will be a bit less bothered about some interim volatility.
It has had a very strong run up recently so a bit of a pull back at this stage is not unexpected.


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## thierry (5 September 2007)

*LEI - Leighton Holdings*

This company has had some great announcements recently. 

The stock price has also broken out again, at an all time high.. 

I couldn't find a forum on this.. so I thought i'd start one for any views on this share.


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## chops_a_must (14 February 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Julia said:


> This is one of my long term holds.  Perhaps if you take a look at, say, the two year chart, you will be a bit less bothered about some interim volatility.
> It has had a very strong run up recently so a bit of a pull back at this stage is not unexpected.




It's obviously been a great performer, and I think will be for years to come.

It's on support at the moment, and the sector is weak. However, if they can get a share in the billions on offer in Perth redevelopment over the next few years, it'll go in the bottom draw for mine.

Cheers.


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## mhar9655 (14 August 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Hi just wondering what your thoughts are on the most recent Leighton announcement with the profit figure and the Entitlement Offer on the table?  I''m fairly new to investing and bought these shares just the other day.  Did I get in at a bad time or was I lucky and got in at a good point?


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## Aussiest (19 August 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Well, it depends. If you want to buy more, you probably got in at a good point, because the cut-off date for the discounted shares is 19th August, 2008, which means you needed to own them by then. So, if you can afford more, by all means, you should buy some, because you'll get them at $35 ish (don't quote me on figure), and can sell them back into the market when it picks up again.

I'm just really P*ssed off because i bought a whole lot of them hoping to cash in on their profit report, and then they go and do this. It's like, thanks alot Leighton, don't you want loyal holders?! 

Anyway, vent over. The price will probably be pushed down upon open tommorrow, but i'm not sure by how much.

(Oh yeah, i don't think you made a mistake in buying LEI as it is a good company with profits and a full order book).


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## Miner (30 October 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Hi 
Could any one provide any clue on LEI ?
When the market has been rising but LEI has been descending continuously.
Have they lost any contract or was it because o any cancellation of contract with MAH due to market slump and projec cancellation ?

Any thoughts or knowledge sharing will be appreciated

Regards


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## oldblue (30 October 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Hi Miner.
I don't hold LEI although I've been a longtime admirer and it's firmly on my watchlist but I think it's just a sign of the times/market.
LEI is still at a higher historical P/E than BHP which is some measure that it hasn't fallen into the "write-off " basket. Anything to do with development/capital works/expenditure is going to do it hard for a while yet. I'm picking that LEI will be worth a hard look when the trend turns.


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## oldblue (30 October 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I've just read an email from Macquarie Equities in which they downgrade LEI to "Hold" on account of the slowdown in world GDP growth and expected effect on infrastructure spending. Probably accounts for the weakness in the LEI S/P ?


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## Miner (30 October 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



oldblue said:


> I've just read an email from Macquarie Equities in which they downgrade LEI to "Hold" on account of the slowdown in world GDP growth and expected effect on infrastructure spending. Probably accounts for the weakness in the LEI S/P ?




Thanks a lot Old blue for sharing with Macquaire report. 

I also noticed InterSuisse has recommended a BUY note for LEI when market slumped  and So Bell even at a much higher price.

The SP further eroded at the end of day today and with a rise today in ASX and high rise in Dow Index probably the market will correct itself tomorrow in Oz and NYSE tonight.

I will watch LEI tomorrow for an opportunity


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## zorrro13 (1 November 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Miner said:


> Hi
> Could any one provide any clue on LEI ?
> When the market has been rising but LEI has been descending continuously.
> Have they lost any contract or was it because o any cancellation of contract with MAH due to market slump and projec cancellation ?
> ...




 Well I bought in today surely something has to give.. reminds of bhps fall but where is the bottom? They just got approval yesterday for Royal north shore and even with that huge contract they still getting hammered, anyone know why?


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## Sean K (1 November 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



zorrro13 said:


> Well I bought in today surely something has to give.. reminds of bhps fall but where is the bottom? They just got approval yesterday for Royal north shore and even with that huge contract they still getting hammered, anyone know why?



Entire contruction industry is freezing up. A lot may be factored in to the current sp but I'm not sure if everyone is aware of the effect this will have on overall development and infrastructure projects around the world. 

*Construction freeze hits city*
Cameron Houston and Royce Millar 
November 1, 2008 

DEVELOPMENT in Melbourne is expected to come to a virtual standstill over the next few years, with commercial building projects worth billions of dollars frozen by the financial meltdown.


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## Reealjrd (1 November 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

In the coming days the construction sector is going to come down. And many development projects will be taking place. The construction sector is down at present worldwide.


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## nick2fish (1 November 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Thanks Kennas .........really bad news for construction and more importantly
Steel ......................


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## Miner (1 November 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

That is right that construction gloomy picture in LEI like companies will short the demand of steel

When the market is bad for steel (BSL and ONe Steel), then the news is bad for iron ore (BHP, FMG, Rio and others). metallurgical coal (RIV, Mccarthur and other coal) used for steel, alloy elements (Moly, Nickel and Vanadium), Cement (CSR, Brick works, Brighton) - gosh and then holes in our pockets and super fund 

When do we get the good news probably another war like Iraq will inflate the consumption and pumping money into market - bad omen but that is the reality in life when consumption fails down. So if I stretch my imagination on a long shot to see Iran gets attacked by USA under some pretext in next 12 months


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## Miner (18 November 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

SO MANY contracts LEI won but the share price sliding inversely.

It has gone to about $19 from $24. Does any one know what could be reason which does not justify the wining contracts ?


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## Johno (4 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Why does leighton continue to drop in the face of a rise all other stocks? This stock seems pretty cheap to me, but am I missing somthing?

I want to buy but am hesitant in case it drops further...


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## Sean K (4 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Johno said:


> Why does leighton continue to drop in the face of a rise all other stocks? This stock seems pretty cheap to me, but am I missing somthing?
> 
> I want to buy but am hesitant in case it drops further...



Seems unusual considering all the new contracts they are winning and already have in the pipeline.

Like many other stocks, the market is factoring a reduction in demand and earnings due to the potential long and deep recession.

VERY long term these guys should do OK, so depends on your horizon. Worst case the world explodes and 4 horses break out of the cracks in the ground and carry your money off to armageddon. A better case might be a 1-3 year recession which means the US is already 1/3 into it. We'll probably find soon that we have been in recession for a few months, but how long to go?

Place your bets.


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## The Muffin Man (4 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

The company has massive amounts of work in hand, at all time highs I think. Things are slowing down, but you also need to consider that this is the time Governments will start spending to give the economy a boost, and one way they spend is through infrastructure. Leighton is, amoung other things, a world class construction company, and will therefore benefit from such expenditure.

I was reading from one of their announcements that the company is sticking by its guidance of 15% profit growth for the coming year. They also have stuck by their commitment to pay out about 70% of profits in dividends. You go do the maths regarding what the yield will be if this holds true and you buy LEI around the $18-22 mark. It really doesn't look too bad at all.

Just my thoughts.


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## Julia (4 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

This article offers some suggestions re reasons for falling SP.
I've held LEI, sold at $53.50, would like to buy back in but won't in this climate.



> FN ARENA NEWS - 25/11/2008
> 
> 
> At its AGM earlier in the month, construction leader Leighton Holdings' (LEI) management maintained an upbeat view of the company's ongoing prospects, implying a level of immunity to the global economic downturn. Management noted that the Australian government is set to pour money into infrastructure, that rumours of the local mining industry's demise are exaggerated, and that the Middle East is still offering golden opportunities for further extravagant construction.
> ...


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## Sean K (8 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Julia said:


> This article offers some suggestions re reasons for falling SP.
> I've held LEI, sold at $53.50, would like to buy back in but won't in this climate.



Thanks for the article Julia.

Did someone in there have a $51 price target? For when? 2020?  And someone was 'comfortable' with $45 ish.... eeek

Makes you wonder why anyone bothers to take notice of those valuations/targets.

They are so far behind the curve it's crazy. Perhaps because if they give a sell recommendation too early, the industry won't allow them access to briefings etc ... In fact, it can get to the point where analysts can be sued for issuing a sell. Something my brother had to deal with a couple of years ago. FFS! 

Still, can't help but think the market might be going into an oversold state, or was and is recovering a little of that. I think the market's potentially factoring in major disaster for the infrastructure players. 

Having said that,

Maybe it will be total distruction?   

Hitting a zone of support here, but does technical support matter anymore?


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## Miner (8 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Bell Potters have valued LEI as $35 about. Still a buy.

LEI lost some project and won.

One of the directors sold considerable shares end of last month.

It seems around 24-26 Nov few things were reported in ASX

WIth market it may not be an unlikely event that LEI again takes control of MAH in next 6 months or so.

Extracted from Bell Report with some formatting done (less than 10% content so copy right is not violated) original size 800 kb not allowed due to size restrcition

"$ 3.8b Dubai win:* Still some gas in the tank.*

 Al Habtoor Leighton wins AED8.85bn contract (A$3.75bn LEI shr $1.7bn LEI’s UAE JV Al Habtoor-Leighton signed a letter of intent on a $3.8bn 4-year construction contract (not incl. design) for the Dubai Pearl mixed use development comprising a luxury hotel, commercial, retail, residential and leisure facilities. The contract is fixed price, though major input costs of c50% are recoverable at cost.

 Can government funded work fill the void as the economy slows?

Elsewhere Aust. economic data today showed some resilience in the construction cycle with work done surprising on the upside (4.4% vs UBSe 1.5%). 
This is a* function of the 2-3yr lag between work commitments & work done. *We note the strength in public construction at +8.8%. *LEI have an estimated c95% of FY09 & 55-75% of FY10 work locked in today. Hence the important issue is understanding the growth profile into FY11 & onwards*.

 Weak macro outlook though work still there & cost pressures reducing
While LEI is exposed to the construction cycle & broader economy, its scale &
diversification may provide opportunities as competitors fall away & cost pressures subside. 

(26/11) Today’s Dubai win (in a market supposedly cooling) shows that LEI can still drive revenue through large projects even as the pace slows. Assuming an 8% margin this is c4% of NPAT for 4 years locked in.

* PE-based PT $34.50 & Buy recommendation unchanged.*

We  (BPS) believe the key driver for LEI is whether governments commit soon enough & in sufficient size to avoid a 2011 hole as private sector infrastructure support & resources slow. In the short term we look to the $700m Single LEAP defence accommodation project contract as the next likely piece of positive newsflow, expected in the next c2 months."


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## Sean K (8 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

And, yet anoter project awarded.

Must be a fvckin big slowdown coming in 2010....

*Al Habtoor – Murray & Roberts – Takenaka JV awarded
AED 4.9 billion (A$2 billion) Dubai Airport Concourse 3 project*

The Al Habtoor – Murray & Roberts – Takenaka (HMRT) Joint Venture has been awarded an AED 4.9 billion (A$2 billion) contract for the construction of Dubai Airport’s new Concourse 3 for Dubai’s Department of Civil Aviation (DCA).

The project is worth AED 2 billion (A$800 million) to the Al Habtoor Leighton Group.


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## The Muffin Man (8 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I wonder how much of the $38Bn that the Victorian Government just announced to be spent on road and rail infrastructure will end up being awarded to Leighton or subsidiaries. 

Here comes the infrastructure spending, next stop, Federal Government.


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## Miner (8 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Reported in Compare Shares with no data or reasoning. Probably they think the prospective investors have no knowledge and they will take his no fact based reasoning to buy LEI. Span is for five years. So many ups and down will be there to give this broker a credit. ANy way DYOR and just positng as verbatim


"Richard Morrow
E.L.& C. BAILLIEU

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Leighton Holdings (LEI)

Leighton is a construction and contracting giant trading at less than half the price its shares reached during the peak of the bull market. The company has major exposure to infrastructure development, where a lot of government money will be focused over the next five years."


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## Miner (9 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

One more broker's recommendation extracted from FN Arena published yesterday

" LEI - LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED 

_Deutsche Bank rates LEI as Buy - Leighton Holdings is doing its best to counter the critics and the sceptics by announcing new deals in the Middle East. Yesterday the company delivered another confirmation of a new contract won. 
Deutsche Bank analysts estimate the group's Gulf business now has $5.2bn in work at hand, compared with $2.8bn at June 2008. This gives them enough confidence about the performance of this division in the three years ahead. 

Double digit EPS growth should be maintained for years to come for the group, Deutsche argues, and thus the current share price is seen representing "compelling value". 

No changes made to forecasts. 

Target price is $36.85 Current Price is $24.44 Difference:$12.41 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If LEI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

Market Sentiment: 0.5" _


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## georgey (13 December 2008)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Watched this on Friday, it held about 2250 which is on short term uptrend from its lows.
At noon it broke up and reached abt 2310 before dropping back to 2250, possibly on negative
US car firm news. Many stock dropped at the same time so nothing to do with LEI,
After a bounce it dropped to 2210 where it seemed to form a double bottom before it rocketed
to close at 2300.
If this is due to a positive buyer influence it could test 2500 again, maybe Monday, with
a possible move back to 3500 where it would still be in a downtrend.
Some could say it is now in a rising wedge or flag which is usually bearish.
Georgey

ps


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## gfresh (15 February 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Interview this morning on inside business with CEO Wal King.. 

You can view it here presently: http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/

He seemed fairly positive with regards to still securing major projects, even during the GFC.

Chart also reflects a bit of a bear market rally with a recovery with 9.55% rise last week, although I'm a bit hesitant on whether next week will be messy for many stocks in a similar position. Resistance possible at $20.00.

100% Fib retracement target = $9.57


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## Nero64 (6 April 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

This stock opened up above short term resistance at 20.50, smashed through the 38.2% Fib mark at 21.15, Just broken through the 50% fib at 22.69, and hopefully heading higher on above average volume. 

I was wondering why this stock was lagging the general market upturn (Bris connections stuff didn't help). The Rudd spending will help it to. Let's hope the big fish start accumulating it.


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## anatol (6 April 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Nero64 said:


> This stock opened up above short term resistance at 20.50, smashed through the 38.2% Fib mark at 21.15, Just broken through the 50% fib at 22.69, and hopefully heading higher on above average volume.
> 
> I was wondering why this stock was lagging the general market upturn (Bris connections stuff didn't help). The Rudd spending will help it to. Let's hope the big fish start accumulating it.




Now, LEI is going up. It has added 11% to its value today. The reason is beleived to be as below;

"Acacia is rumoured to be in the box seat to build the NBN. Following speculation that the form of the NBN itself has shifted to more of an emphasis on wholesale backhaul, industry sources claim the *Federal Government is currently locked in negotiations with Acacia to roll out fibre with the backing of Nextgen Networks owner Leighton Holdings*

With a formal announcement from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Communications Minister Stephen Conroy  *now expected around April 7, sources close to the negotiations inform CommsDay that both Acacia and Leightons have been in back-room meetings with the government over the NBN rollout *"

Read the article below ;
http://www.commsday.com/node/322

Also there is very detailed discussion about this issue at this forum : 
http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies-archive.cfm/1162978.html


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## michael_selway (6 April 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Nero64 said:


> This stock opened up above short term resistance at 20.50, smashed through the 38.2% Fib mark at 21.15, Just broken through the 50% fib at 22.69, and hopefully heading higher on above average volume.
> 
> I was wondering why this stock was lagging the general market upturn (Bris connections stuff didn't help). The Rudd spending will help it to. Let's hope the big fish start accumulating it.




Yeah nice work today!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 214.0 213.7 224.5 229.9 
DPS 143.6 145.0 146.0 148.5 *



> Date: 13/3/2009
> Author: Mathew Murphy
> Source: The Age --- Page: B3
> Wal King, CEO of construction conglomerate Leighton Holdings, argues that the Australian Government's large-scale infrastructure projects will need to use novel ways of financing, as banks now are unwilling to get involved in major public-private partnerships. King says the revival of infrastructure bonds could be one answer to the problem.









thx

MS


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## Sean K (14 April 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

There's a few stocks like this at the moment, seemingly coming out of clear downward channels and moving sideways. The bears are still convinced that that wasn't a bottom, but to me the clear downtrend is no longer there. There's so many resource juniors wit rounded bottoms too, or who have been tracking in a sideways band for a few months it really makes me wonder if we did see a bottom down there.


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## impala_group (7 May 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I think there are good signs coming.

I hope my charting doesnt look too newbish - still learning. LOL


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## gfresh (22 July 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Somewhat unexpected break over $26 today..albeight in pretty low volume at the moment. 

Still seem to be signing up a few projects worldwide, and forecast earnings still running around the 200cps for 2009. Still probably fairly priced if this turns out to be the case.

Preliminary Final Results out on 14th August


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## gfresh (22 July 2009)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Leaky tyre it seems.. 

Subsiduary Thiess awarded part of $2.25bn M80 Ring Road Project in Victoria.


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## ers_6 (13 June 2010)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

From ninemsn:

Stocks in the spotlight
Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI) | Overview
Recommendation: Accumulate | 
Price: $31.58 ( 0.68 )
Australia�s largest engineering services contractor has major infrastructure, contract mining and construction businesses locally, in the Gulf and in Asia. Capable financial management funds a $35bn-plus order book. Risk is generally well...

Thoughts?

A great Australian company with a great story.
Im going to spend some time looking into it but my thoughts are that it is a overpriced to be entering...


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## skc (6 August 2010)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Just whipped up a chart on LEI.

Decent up move today in a weaker overall market but staring $30.50 resistance in its face. SP has poked out of that line twice before but retreated just as quickly.

A solid close and break of that resistance today coupled with a good result on 16 Aug may see the stock move to next resistance at $34.


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## fanger (22 December 2010)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I wish Leightons stock would start heading north, even good news can't get it moving it the right direction. Its going to be out of LEI and JBH for my dog stock of 2010.


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## Mr Capital (12 January 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Any thoughts on how Leighton may fair due to exposure in Queensland's flood affected areas - 1Billion dollar contract for the Ipswich town center, 105million dollar contract to upgrade the Goodna reclamation plant in Ipswich, various coal mines (not sure if they have been caught up in the disaster) & the contract with Ergon Energy??

Is it quite possible that Leighton will be contracted to clear up the mess as such & rebuild a fair share of damaged infrastructure? 

Any insights would be appreciated. 

Currently hold long term.


----------



## Sirbill (18 January 2011)

*THEISS WINS $136M COAL SEAM GAS CONTRACT*

Leighton Holdings Ltd subsidiary Thiess has won a $136 million coal seam gas upstream infrastructure contract in Queensland for early works projects in the Surat Basin.
Thiess says it will begin work this month to install field compressor stations, HDPE gathering pipelines, intermediate pressure gas trunklines, water storage ponds and complete site preparation for additional compressor stations for explorer and producer QSG.
Managing director David Saxelby said the contract was a major milestone that secured Thiess' presence in the growing LNG sector.
At 1310 AEDT, shares in Leighton were down 14 cents at $31.36.

Link:http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/16986-theiss-wins-$136m-coal-seam-gas-contract.html


All good news except for "shares in Leighton were down 14 cents at $31.36." Better value for money buy. Its going have to go up soon with all the positive news going around?


----------



## Sirbill (28 January 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

LEI - LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED 
Leighton Holdings Secures $110m Botany Paper Mill Contract 
27/01/2011  10:00AM 

Leighton Holdings announced that Leighton Contractors has been awarded a $110m contract by Amcor for the design and construction of civil and building infrastructure at the Botany B9 Paper Mill in Sydney. Under the contract, Leighton Contractors will design and construct the paper machine building, stock preparation building, product store waste paper yard, mill offices, control room and other ancillary works. The Botany B9 Paper Mill will  


LEI stocks finally moving north!


----------



## sharezum (30 January 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Leighton seem to win a new contract about every other week but are taking their time travelling North.


----------



## fanger (31 January 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



sharezum said:


> Leighton seem to win a new contract about every other week but are taking their time travelling North.




The stock price hasn't recovered from its profit down grade


----------



## fanger (9 February 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



sharezum said:


> Leighton seem to win a new contract about every other week but are taking their time travelling North.




Its a piece of **** stock going no where.


----------



## Julia (14 February 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

More bad news for Leighton.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/leighton-its-worse-than-it-looks-20110214-1at31.html


----------



## fanger (15 February 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I'm so sick of this stock so I sold out of it yesterday.


----------



## skc (15 February 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



fanger said:


> I'm so sick of this stock so I sold out of it yesterday.




I am afraid you are looking like a perfect contrarian indicator...

We've all done it at some point in your trading/investing life.


----------



## Julia (15 February 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

skc is right, fanger.  LEI is facing headwinds at present, but it's still a top, well run company.


----------



## fanger (15 February 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> I am afraid you are looking like a perfect contrarian indicator...
> 
> We've all done it at some point in your trading/investing life.




You may be right but I don't care, there are much better stocks to have ones money in at the moment. LEI has let me down too many times in the past so I've moved on.


----------



## TheAbyss (11 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Expect a 22.25% sp drop here on the back of a cap raising at $22.50 plus no dividend this year. Ouch!

Anything more than 22% fall and maybe a short term opportunity to make a small gain but not for me. Bad news tends to follow bad news and Wal King saw the writing when he chose to take cash over shares when he left.

Plenty of press on this around and enough pain for now.


----------



## fanger (11 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

wow I'm glad I sold out of LEI now


----------



## Tightwad (11 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I bought in cheaply at $28 last year.. then topped up a bit higher...  I'm leaning towards getting out, I've put up with too much guff.


----------



## Nero64 (12 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I have been investing/trading in and out of this stock for 2-3 years. It always seems to get the better of me. I always pull out to early or to late and then a bomb hits like this.  

They went into a trading halt on the 7th April. What they should've done is opened again on the the 7th or 8th announcing a profit downgrade then the shares would've dropped $2 max. That would of got me out losing a bit but not a shocking amount. By extending the trading halt and doing the capital raising they will cause it to drop substantially lower at the expense of retail investors who don't buy big into this stock.

Although I think Leighton is a solid company with work always coming in, it has some cowboys onboard who haven't properly estimated the risk and expenditure for certain projects.  

The 1 in 9 share offer won't really help retail investers. A pittance really. 2 in 9 would be more acceptable but what they are offering is pathetic. Why can't they just do a normal captial raising where you can buy up to 15K worth of shares. 

I just hope the stock doesn't drop and keep going like Nufarm did. It will be under pressure for a while until the bookbuilds are done, I remember RIO was under pressue when it did a rights issue. Maybe the traders will prop it up $4-5 the first day.


----------



## skc (12 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Nero64 said:


> I have been investing/trading in and out of this stock for 2-3 years. It always seems to get the better of me. I always pull out to early or to late and then a bomb hits like this.
> 
> They went into a trading halt on the 7th April. What they should've done is opened again on the the 7th or 8th announcing a profit downgrade then the shares would've dropped $2 max. That would of got me out losing a bit but not a shocking amount. By extending the trading halt and doing the capital raising they will cause it to drop substantially lower at the expense of retail investors who don't buy big into this stock.
> 
> ...




There was never a chance that they will resume trading after the profit downgrade. The market will trade un-informed while they sound out the capital raising, not to mentioned that the prospects of a capital raising (which all analysts would have worked out) will see the share price fall more than a couple of $$.

Rights issue, placement or SPP (where you buy $15K worth of stock) are all 'normal' capital raising methods.

I think sentiments will no doubt remain negative towards LEI for some time. LEI has always traded at a premium to other builders and this needs to come out first. Management forecast of $600m profit next year is ~ $2 per share (before capital raising). A more normal PE of 12-14 puts the share price at ~$25 range. Market scepticism of the $600m figure will see it trade lower than that imo.

Back in 2004 LEI stuffed up Southern Cross Station in Melbourne and Hilton Hotel upgrade in Sydney. They however recovered relatively quickly thanks to the mining boom. Will that history provide useful lesson for now?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

This is an exciting situation for those of us who trade long and long-term.

The chart shows 2 points of potential support/resistance

$16.30 and $25.

Interesting times. Downtrends do present opportunities.

A monthly chart going back 10-11 years.

gg


----------



## Aussiest (13 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Well, i have just read that Leighton shares have been suspended from trading. What does this mean? Does this mean that the company has gone belly up and we've all lost our money?!


----------



## nomore4s (13 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Aussiest said:


> Well, i have just read that Leighton shares have been suspended from trading. What does this mean? Does this mean that the company has gone belly up and we've all lost our money?!




Looks like it is in suspension due to a capital raising and will be trading again tomorrow. Suggest you read the company announcement for further info.


----------



## skc (13 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Aussiest said:


> Well, i have just read that Leighton shares have been suspended from trading. What does this mean? Does this mean that the company has gone belly up and we've all lost our money?!




Not all... it will probably fall 15-20% minimum upon reopen however.

You will have a chance to participate in the capital raising, which may or may not be a wise idea.

DYOR and start by reading announcements as 123567890 suggested.


----------



## inq (14 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

:/

I was going to sell of my LEI holdings the day they went into a trading halt, and now it seems I've got my head kicked in. 

What do we think people, that LEI might be able to trace back up a bit, or is SP only going to go down?


----------



## Nero64 (14 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



inq said:


> :/
> 
> I was going to sell of my LEI holdings the day they went into a trading halt, and now it seems I've got my head kicked in.
> 
> What do we think people, that LEI might be able to trace back up a bit, or is SP only going to go down?




I usually stick by a rule I have. I sell half my holdings when prices drop this far from my buying point - like I did today. It's possible the share price may not ever recover. The next thing you know you have Babcock and Brown on your hands. However with LEI I think it is a good company and in time it should recover. I made the mistake of investing after 2 profit downgrades and was in front for a while and I didn't use a stop loss.


----------



## 3aq1e (16 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

How much further will the share drop?? Trading @ $24 atm.


----------



## 3aq1e (19 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Taking another beating today? at what price do you guys think it worthy to buy?


----------



## aaronphetamine (19 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I bought a small parcel today at $24.10, it will now make up less than 3% of my portfolio. I believe it to be a good long term company to buy. No dividends + Cap Raising have seen it fall in value, and if our market on the whole continues to fall, LEI will most likely fall with it, but being a long term investor, Im OK to sit with the swings at the moment


----------



## McCoy Pauley (20 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Now there's talk of shareholder class actions being launched against Leighton Holdings.  Who knows whether that will come to fruition but it will be a discration for the management.

Personally, I think anyone taking a position in Leighton Holdings now is being, in the words of Sir Humphrey Appleby, "courageous".  Pessimistically, I don't think all the bad news is out in the open yet.


----------



## Julia (20 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

McCoy, what does 'discration' mean?


----------



## McCoy Pauley (20 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Good question, Julia.  When I found out, I'll get back to you.

I meant "distraction".  I was obviously distracted myself when I wrote that earlier post!


----------



## Julia (20 April 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

OK, McCoy.  I guess I should have been able to figure that out myself.


----------



## 3aq1e (9 May 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

At what point does it become feasible to buy this share  It finished at a 1 year low today


----------



## Julia (9 May 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

If you haven't seen this article from the SMH, it's worth a read before deciding on whether to enter LEI in the immediate future.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/hoch...rn-for-embattled-leighton-20110508-1ee78.html


----------



## skc (16 August 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

This was a laugh.



> ''Now you will all probably laugh at me for this but I thought it might be worth me taking you through this,'' Gregg told the Leighton full-year results briefing yesterday when slide No.25 came up.
> 
> Headed ''One-off adjustments give a profit of around $600m'', the chart showed that Leighton would have made an underlying profit of $600 million had it not been for a $690 million loss it incurred from the Brisbane Airport Link toll-road project, a $355 million loss on its Victorian desalination project and a $206 million loss from its Middle Eastern operations.
> Advertisement: Story continues below
> ...




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5942&p=631978&highlight=lei#post631978


----------



## fanger (16 August 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> I am afraid you are looking like a perfect contrarian indicator...
> 
> We've all done it at some point in your trading/investing life.





I don't think so, looking back I did the right thing in selling it.


----------



## skc (16 August 2011)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



fanger said:


> I don't think so, looking back I did the right thing in selling it.




Yes definitely a good sell. Saved yourself 20% even with the rises in the last 2 days.

I thought at the time all the bad news were out but how wrong was I.


----------



## notting (16 January 2012)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Great, labor's desal plant is going to be producing water by july!!
We could be back in flood by then!
We all pay more for water because of it.:fish:


----------



## StumpyPhantom (27 March 2012)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

LEI in trading halt over Brisbane Airport link - 

HERE WE GO AGAIN!


----------



## Country Lad (13 February 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

I bought this as a recovery stock at $17.50.  It is continuing the recovering, up 10% today.

Cheers
Country Lad

PS  As I post this, looks like another 2% in the match-out.


----------



## skc (22 March 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

LEI lost the Chair and 2 independent directors as they are not happy with the Spanish owner.

Stock down 10%.

I am guessing some righteous fund manager thinks that the Board should be independent so decided to vote with their feet... but what's the actual fundamental implications of such an event? 

Apart from a bit of fun boardroom drama, it doesn't sound that meaningful when it comes down to earnings and revenue etc? Are they worried that a Spanish rule would be inferior? 

A good pairs candidate to hold for a Monday bounce I think....


----------



## Country Lad (22 March 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Johns'  letter of resignation may be of interest to some here.  

Fortunately I sold when my $22.86 stop was hit on 4 March.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Tyler Durden (3 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



> Fraud and bribery claims against Leighton Holdings have sent shares in the construction giant falling by more than 10 per cent, its biggest one-day loss in more than two years, as former chief executive Wal King denied all allegations of wrongdoing.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/bribe-claims-send-shares-into-slump-20131003-2uxct.html

Such big news and no posts??


----------



## MrBurns (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Tyler Durden said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/business/bribe-claims-send-shares-into-slump-20131003-2uxct.html
> 
> Such big news and no posts??




I know someone in there fairly high up
I hope they shut the bastards down if he is any indication of what the rest of them are like


----------



## SilverRanger (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> LEI lost the Chair and 2 independent directors as they are not happy with the Spanish owner.
> 
> Stock down 10%.
> 
> ...




BLD


----------



## skc (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



SilverRanger said:


> BLD




My post was dated back in March?! That trade worked out quite nicely.

Having said that... I did put a LEI/LLC trade on yesterday but spat it back out first thing this morning for a loss. Citi downgraded LEI to a sell and I didn't want to be there for the fun. On hindsight I should have just reversed...

Back in Feb 2012 when it announced that there are potential breaches of ethical codes etc, the share price fell sharply and remained weak for another week or so. It may be similar this time around. However, LEI has run up pretty hard (on the back of a so-so result) so imo much of the fall is really just retracing some of the previous up move.

Fundamentally nothing terribly new or bad happened. Afterall it was just a newspaper story which the police is already investigating. It's not like they will lose their wheat export monopoly like AWB. They may lose a few government contracts overseas, and there's some words about how it will impact further their cash collection in the Middle East. So on these grounds the 12% fall seems like an over-reaction. But valuation wise it isn't a no-brainer bargain or anything like that either.


----------



## McLovin (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> Fundamentally nothing terribly new or bad happened. Afterall it was just a newspaper story which the police is already investigating. It's not like they will lose their wheat export monopoly like AWB. They may lose a few government contracts overseas, and there's some words about how it will impact further their cash collection in the Middle East. So on these grounds the 12% fall seems like an over-reaction. But valuation wise it isn't a no-brainer bargain or anything like that either.




The fines at the top of the range (an unlikely outcome, IMO) would be $1.89billion


> Under Australian law, it is an offence to bribe a foreign public official even if a bribe may be seen to be customary, necessary or required in the situation, and even if there is official tolerance of the bribe.
> 
> The maximum penalty for an individual is 10 years imprisonment and/or a fine of 10,000 penalty units (that is, $1.1 million). *For a body corporate, the maximum penalty is the greater of the following three amounts: 100,000 penalty units ($11 million); 3 times the value of the benefits obtained (if calculable); or 10% of the previous 12 month's turnover of the company concerned.*
> 
> ...




http://www.dfat.gov.au/issues/measures-against-corruption.html


----------



## pixel (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



McLovin said:


> The fines at the top of the range (an unlikely outcome, IMO) would be $1.89billion
> 
> 
> http://www.dfat.gov.au/issues/measures-against-corruption.html




what hypocrisy! what double standard!
Companies that improve Australia's foreign trade balance get penalised and their officers crucified, yet the same politicians that have legislated from a position on a moral high ground absolve themselves and their ilk when they rort the system, then come up with all kinds of lame excuses. 
"Networking" at a wedding.
"Study crime fighting" on an Overseas family holiday.
etc...


----------



## skc (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



McLovin said:


> The fines at the top of the range (an unlikely outcome, IMO) would be $1.89billion
> http://www.dfat.gov.au/issues/measures-against-corruption.html




I guess it depends on the definition of "company concerned".

If they take 10% of turnover of LEI holdings that'd be a massive fine. If they take 10% of turnover of the subsidiary the broke the law - probably a lot less.

Either way, the investigation is not completed yet anyway.


----------



## McLovin (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> I guess it depends on the definition of "company concerned".
> 
> If they take 10% of turnover of LEI holdings that'd be a massive fine. If they take 10% of turnover of the subsidiary the broke the law - probably a lot less.
> 
> Either way, the investigation is not completed yet anyway.




If the board of LEI knew of the corruption then you can guess who they'll be going for. I'm not sure if a foreign domiciled subsidiary can be fined by an Australian authority. Either way I'm sure they'll negotiate it.

Early days, but there is a trend emerging here with Australian companies paying bribes. If the RBA is doing it then who knows who else is!

If these allegations are true, then look out below...



> Among the most explosive of the company files is a memo written on November 23, 2010, by then acting CEO David Stewart. It says Leighton International managing director David Savage had revealed he and Mr King knew of a $42 million kickback to a firm in Monaco nominated by Iraqi officials who gave Leighton a $750 million oil pipeline contract. "I asked did Wal K approve this? And he said yes," the memo says.




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/buil...tion-claims-20131002-2ut2e.html#ixzz2giY0qmRN

I do think this is bigger than just losing a few government contracts.


----------



## skc (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



McLovin said:


> Early days, but there is a trend emerging here with Australian companies paying bribes. If the RBA is doing it then who knows who else is!




Lol. What is RBA's annual turnover?



McLovin said:


> If these allegations are true, then look out below...
> 
> I do think this is bigger than just losing a few government contracts.




Well judging by the lack of bounce in LEI's share price today it does seem that market is looking at it more seriously than I am. 

I think LEI must have the ASX large cap record of dropping 10%+ bombshells in the last few years.


----------



## Country Lad (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



McLovin said:


> The fines at the top of the range (an unlikely outcome, IMO) would be $1.89billion
> 
> 
> http://www.dfat.gov.au/issues/measures-against-corruption.html




The problem I have with the fines against the company is that the shareholders, who had nothing to do with the illegal activities, are the one who suffer.  It should be more so the people who carried out or condoned the activities who should carry the burden in huge fines or jail terms.  Not quite "off with their heads!!, but nearly.

This would be the best incentive for directors and senior people in all companies to ensure that their risk management and corporate governance was as good as it can be.  

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Quite a distressing long term monthly chart on LEI.

Particularly over the last 6 years.

A descending triangle, looking to break down as volume is of late to the downside.

Looking further back I would suggest an entry at $7.50 to $8.00 mark.

I lost a small amount on a short term long trade earlier this year, but it was chickenfeed to what has happened this week, and I fear for long holders in the next month or two.







gg


----------



## Country Lad (4 October 2013)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Quite a distressing long term monthly chart on LEI.
> 
> Particularly over the last 6 years.




Yes, but over that period there were 3 occasions of significant rises from the low to high of 158%, 57% and 65% so opportunities to make significant profits were there.  Just before the announcements a couple of days ago, the chart again looked positive with good continuation patterns.

Shows the benefit of waiting for a breakout from the positive patterns because an event out of left field can always be just around the corner.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## edman79 (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

So Leightons gets an ASX price query on Friday due to higher volumes being traded and the price rising by ~10% and they respond with the standard "We don't know why and have no explanation for it". Next trading day there is a takeover bid. So if Leightons didn't know then someone did. Is this another ASIC sit on their hands moment, which I call a weekday?


----------



## skc (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



edman79 said:


> So Leightons gets an ASX price query on Friday due to higher volumes being traded and the price rising by ~10% and they respond with the standard "We don't know why and have no explanation for it". Next trading day there is a takeover bid. So if Leightons didn't know then someone did. Is this another ASIC sit on their hands moment, which I call a weekday?




Yes... definitely dodgy as. Often share price will at least take a rest upon the speeding ticket response, but it kept powering upwards on Friday. Thank God I didn't short them.

It is now trading above the proportional offer price... so the market is looking for a full takeover at some stage? The offer price is only $22.75 and only for 37.5% of one's holding. I would have thought the share price will trade lower after the takeover lapses...


----------



## McCoy Pauley (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

ASIC is a toothless tiger.  Does a lot of roaring but won't back up that roaring with action, especially against a company the size of Leighton's.

Clearly someone in the market was well-informed before the announcement was released.  Logically, therefore, it seems that someone is buying in the anticipation that a proper takeover offer will be submitted before too long.


----------



## McLovin (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

How can you make an offer that will take you from 59% to 74% without making an offer for all remaining shares?


----------



## SilverRanger (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> Yes... definitely dodgy as. Often share price will at least take a rest upon the speeding ticket response, but it kept powering upwards on Friday. Thank God I didn't short them.




What kept you away from going short? I went in as soon as I saw LEI's response on the speeding ticket..


----------



## skc (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



McLovin said:


> How can you make an offer that will take you from 59% to 74% without making an offer for all remaining shares?




Dunno. The same mechanism that lets them hold 59% and not do a takeover? I had to read the announcement a few times to make sure I understand the "proportional takeover" business.

I guess there are a few other companies with only a pretty small free float as they are majority-owned by different entities. 



SilverRanger said:


> What kept you away from going short? I went in as soon as I saw LEI's response on the speeding ticket..




Just the price action after the response. It had every opportunity to fall but it didn't so I accepted the fact the buyer was better informed (and it's hard to argue that he/she isn't).

Plus I've been trading like $h.it so I just didn't want to chance something that didn't look right.


----------



## Ves (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> Dunno. The same mechanism that lets them hold 59% and not do a takeover? I had to read the announcement a few times to make sure I understand the "proportional takeover" business.
> 
> I guess there are a few other companies with only a pretty small free float as they are majority-owned by different entities.
> 
> ...



They didn't make a takeover bid....  so my understanding is that s606 applies instead.



> Section 606 prohibits the acquisition of a relevant interest in voting shares if, because of that transaction, a person's voting power in the company:
> 
> increases from under 20% to over 20% or
> increases from a starting point that is above 20% and below 90%.




http://www.takeovers.gov.au/content...mmary_of_takeover_provisions_in_australia.htm

They've gone from 59% to 74% if shareholders accept.   From what I understand if they go to 75% ownership there is a trigger / issue in relation to the debt covenants.


----------



## SilverRanger (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> Dunno. The same mechanism that lets them hold 59% and not do a takeover? I had to read the announcement a few times to make sure I understand the "proportional takeover" business.



Whatever they did surely is working in their favour, spending AUD$1.16 billion to build up their share holding from 59% to 74%, while their original 59% share enjoyed a paper profit of almost AUD$1 billion just in the last 2 days.



skc said:


> Just the price action after the response. It had every opportunity to fall but it didn't so I accepted the fact the buyer was better informed (and it's hard to argue that he/she isn't).
> 
> Plus I've been trading like $h.it so I just didn't want to chance something that didn't look right.





Glad you dodged this, now thanks to this I have a clear March target: try to break even..


----------



## skc (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



SilverRanger said:


> Whatever they did surely is working in their favour, spending AUD$1.16 billion to build up their share holding from 59% to 74%, while their original 59% share enjoyed a paper profit of almost AUD$1 billion just in the last 2 days.




They are not traders so I doubt they care about paper profits.



SilverRanger said:


> Glad you dodged this, now thanks to this I have a clear March target: try to break even..




I have the same target for March


----------



## Ves (10 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Ves said:


> They didn't make a takeover bid....  so my understanding is that s606 applies instead.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Sorry I meant it goes from s606 to s611 (one of the exceptions),   which means that it has to be accepted by shareholders without being a full takeover bid,  more like an increase in control.  

I walked off mid post because the phone rang and obviously forgot to write that bit.

They had previously been using the "3% creep" role to increase their control.


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## goccipgp (11 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

If we can pass 23.15, then 27.039 is easy. Technical buying signal at ************ website.


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## piggybank (11 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Construction group Leighton Holdings Limited (ASX: LEI) has had to defend itself to the ASX, after its share rose 14.7% in the past few days. Shares in Leighton closed at their highest level in twelve months, at $20.72, after rising 7.7% today. The company says it is not aware of any reason for the price rise, nor the unusually high volumes. Around 4.7 million shares changed hands, around 3 times more than usual daily volumes over the past year. But it appears there may be a simple explanation for the price rise.

Germanys Hochtief, Leightons largest shareholder, with more than 57% of the companys shares, lifted its holding to 58.77%, after purchasing an additional 3.4 million shares. Under Australian corporate law, Hochtief, can buy up to 3% of the company every six months, without being forced to make a takeover offer. Hochtief has in the past said that it would continue to lift its holding in Leighton. So this might be a slow and stealthy takeover.

On the other hand, Hochtief could also... 

If you want to read the remainder of the report then please double click on the link below 
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsb...s-leighton-holdings-limited-a-takeover-target

​


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

Where to from here. ?

My charts indicated a buy about Christmas, and I am sitting on some capital gain.

gg


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## VSntchr (13 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

That's weird that they adjusted the offer so quickly after announcing it?!

Share price didn't react to it, but would have been frustrating for the shorts to read!


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## McLovin (13 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



Ves said:


> Sorry I meant it goes from s606 to s611 (one of the exceptions),   which means that it has to be accepted by shareholders without being a full takeover bid,  more like an increase in control.
> 
> I walked off mid post because the phone rang and obviously forgot to write that bit.
> 
> They had previously been using the "3% creep" role to increase their control.




Ahh...so they can just put the offer to shareholders and if they accept then they get around the rules.


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## skc (13 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



McLovin said:


> Ahh...so they can just put the offer to shareholders and if they accept then they get around the rules.




What an awesome rule. You have to do XYZ, unless you tell people you are not. 



SilverRanger said:


> What kept you away from going short? I went in as soon as I saw LEI's response on the speeding ticket..




Did you hold onto your shorts or did they get recalled? I was puzzled by why it would trade above the indicative offer price. You can only sell 3 of 8 into the bid so the remaining 5 shares are not worth as much as the offer price. Now it's pretty clear that LEI will become a majority owned subsidiary that, while remaining listed, will have much lower liquidity and perhaps get kicked out of all the indices. A mop up offer may or may not eventuate... with highly uncertain timing and price.


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## McLovin (13 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> What an awesome rule. You have to do XYZ, unless you tell people you are not.






I think I understand the reasoning behind it, but it's a bit stupid, imo. Also, I assume that the acquirer who already owns more than 50% of the stock cannot vote on the resolution?


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## SilverRanger (13 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*



skc said:


> What an awesome rule. You have to do XYZ, unless you tell people you are not.
> Did you hold onto your shorts or did they get recalled? I was puzzled by why it would trade above the indicative offer price. You can only sell 3 of 8 into the bid so the remaining 5 shares are not worth as much as the offer price. Now it's pretty clear that LEI will become a majority owned subsidiary that, while remaining listed, will have much lower liquidity and perhaps get kicked out of all the indices. A mop up offer may or may not eventuate... with highly uncertain timing and price.




No I didn't hold on as it went way above my worst case scenario (the offer price), in hindsight I should have known better that this means a short opportunity. I don't think these guys are going to take over LEI any time soon, cuz it makes more sense to keep borrow under LEI (better credit rating) and easier to raise equity if they have to.


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## Sharkman (15 March 2014)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

anyone know if LEI shares held in an IB account are also eligible to take up the hochtief offer, given that it is IB's name that's on the register, and not ours? can we get IB to accept it on our behalf?

also what would happen if one was to dispose of their LEI shares (or more accurately in my case, have them called away) after today (from what i can tell, the stock trades ex the rights to this offer next monday, since only those on the register on the 21st are eligible) but before the offer expires? if we take up the offer, having already sold all our units with the rights attached, then do we end up with a short position afterwards? or do we lose the rights to take up the offer by selling?

i hold LEI stock but i also sold march european 21.01 covered calls over my entire position last week (before the offer was known). obviously at this stage there's a good chance it'll expire ITM and there's also a good chance it'll expire worthless. trying to work out at the moment whether i should close out all the calls, close out 37.5% of them, or let them run to expiry (and let my stock get called away if it comes to that).

i'm thinking i probably need to buy back the lot if they're going to expire ITM, as i'm guessing shareholders would have to retain their entire holding right up until the end of the offer period to be eligible to dispose of 37.5% of their holding at 22.50? gonna be a pain in the butt to do so... the european contracts are so illiquid. none of the MMs showed a spread to the market all day today for those contracts. i shoved a token way off market bid in there, the MMs are supposed to show a spread once i've indicated i'm looking to trade those contracts by doing that, but after 15 mins, nothing. hope it's not like that on expiry day if the things are ITM


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## System (24 April 2015)

*Re: LEI - Leighton Holdings*

On April 24th, 2015, Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI) changed its name and ASX code to CIMIC Group Limited (CIM).


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## fanger (17 February 2016)

This stock seems to be having a good run, the last couple of reports looked very good.


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## tinhat (30 March 2016)

> The offshore arm of Australian company Leighton Holdings paid millions of dollars in bribes to middlemen as part of an audacious strategy to influence Iraq’s deputy prime minister, oil minister and other senior officials, and win more than $1.3 billion of oilfield contracts.
> 
> Leighton’s 18-month campaign of corruption, bribery, fraud and money laundering is revealed in the biggest leak of documents in the oil industry’s history.



Source: http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2016/the-bribe-factory/day-1/leighton-news.html


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## skc (19 July 2016)

You have got to give it to these guys....

In the half year results announcement, it said



> Our continued focus on sustainable, *cash-backed profit *is reflected in our generation of operating cash flow of almost $1.2 billion during the 12 months to 30 June 2016




Hmmm... why not mention the actual operating cash flow in the HY just past? A reported profit of $265.2m vs operating cashflow of $74.2m . Did someone say cash-backed?

Let's see how the market pick them apart tomorrow.


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## VSntchr (20 July 2016)

skc said:


> You have got to give it to these guys....
> 
> In the half year results announcement, it said
> 
> ...



Another bit I noticed was how they gave revenue as a Q on Q comparison rather than H on H. A nice way to avoid the negativity. 
There aill be a lot more bear eyes on this stock now since the destructive analyst report was released.


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## Country Lad (19 July 2018)

CIMIC Group Limited (CIM, formerly Leighton Holdings Limited) provides construction, mining, mineral processing, engineering, concessions, and operation and maintenance services to the infrastructure, resources and property markets. It operates in more than 20 countries throughout the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, North and South America and Sub-Saharan Africa.


It’s not only the smaller shares which can jump in price, this one is up 13% at the moment.  The market obviously liked the Investor Presentation. *https://tinyurl.com/y7v6ssa5*


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## peter2 (28 August 2018)

Another class action notice. These are fun because it makes me go back and review my trade. This time it's Cimic formerly known as Leighton Holdings (LEI). The period involved in the class action is almost three years. 

First thing I do is check the chart to note my setups. I'm hoping that my actual trade did comply with my trade plan (gulp).

LEI was in a down trend for most of 2010 - 2012 and I knew I wouldn't have bought it then. For large cap trades my TP uses a weekly 123 low pattern. There were three opportunities that I could have used. The first setup produced a ripper of a trade. I didn't take that one. I traded the second one and got zapped by heavy selling and sustained a -1.4R result. I checked and there was no news released during that week. The third setup started well but was zapped by poor news. This would have produced a disappointing, but small loss. 

My loss was not caused by the conduct of the respondent as alleged by the applicant in the claim. I'll opt out of this one also. 

The outcomes of the three setups, a good win, a bad loss,a small loss and an overall profit is what I'd expect from a short term trading strategy.


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## Wyatt (11 September 2018)

Country Lad said:


> CIMIC Group Limited (CIM, formerly Leighton Holdings Limited) provides construction, mining, mineral processing, engineering, concessions, and operation and maintenance services to the infrastructure, resources and property markets. It operates in more than 20 countries throughout the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, North and South America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
> 
> 
> It’s not only the smaller shares which can jump in price, this one is up 13% at the moment.  The market obviously liked the Investor Presentation. *https://tinyurl.com/y7v6ssa5*




CIM has stayed up in the top 1/3 of the recent move up since reporting in July and threatening to breakout (again) on this last day before going ex div tomorrow. Some news today on future contracts.
Tempting but not holding atm


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## peter2 (25 January 2019)

The price of CIM has been stuck in a large range and is now bouncing of the lower support level. 

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread. 

Setup: Bouncing off support ($40), BO-HR     Grade A 
Buy limit: 44.35 iSL 41.00, initial target 51.00


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## peter2 (18 July 2019)

Following up from my previous post. Price did go higher and hit the target of $51 (arrowed on chart). Since then price has struggled to go higher and spiked lower on poor news in May19. 
I was considering a buy if price broke out again at $47, but it didn't and has spiked lower again after another poor company update. I'm slowly learning to stay away from companies that produce one bad report as there is usually another one or two to follow. 

Early signs that this reporting season will contain more surprises.


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## Grizzly82 (18 July 2019)

20% loss today - worth a buy?


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## peter2 (18 July 2019)

From a technical/chartist perspective, absolutely not. A little bit of commonsense would see you reading the latest report and understanding why some instos have decided to sell today. You may form an opinion on the business outlook by comparing today's news with the May19 report. Is the business improving or do they still have problems in one or more divisions?


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## Miner (18 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> From a technical/chartist perspective, absolutely not. A little bit of commonsense would see you reading the latest report and understanding why some instos have decided to sell today. You may form an opinion on the business outlook by comparing today's news with the May19 report. Is the business improving or do they still have problems in one or more divisions?



Pete
You are an acknowledge, astute analyst and I do value your comments, postings, data analysis. Reading your postings, it appears CIM is a hot potato and more troubles are coming.
But I am confused to read this one - guidance maintained  and market reaction
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190717/pdf/446pdr38hgqxvq.pdf
Yes, Leighton was at $24 and then after the acquisition, CIM was roaring success.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190717/pdf/446pdtjw74ssjm.pdf - solid cash flow. Sorry, do not get it and firmly believe you have good reasons - let us know more .


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## barney (22 July 2019)

Miner said:


> - let us know more .




I have no real idea Miner. My fundamental ability to read balance sheets etc is basic at best …… People think dabbling in Specs is fraught with danger, but I still find trying to make sense of massive drops in Blue Chips really difficult to work out.  I know its still just 20%, but 20% of $14 Billion is a lot of moola


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## BlindSquirrel (30 July 2019)

I reckon we'd need to see it get above $40 before I'd believe that we're back to being on a winner.


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## peter2 (11 October 2019)

Since my last post the CIM price fell further and even traded <$30 briefly. The chart looks much better now as the price has stopped falling. There's a base pattern (sideways consolidation) with a recent higher low (HL). This is enough for me to consider buying a partial position as the reward potential is much higher than the risk of being wrong at this time. 

The initial targets are marked by the gaps in the chart. There's one at $35 and the big one at $45. If I bought the BO at 32.70 my iSL would be at $30 (trade risk is 2.70). My initial target would be $45 providing a reward of 12.30. Risk $3 to earn $12 is acceptable for me. 

Let me be clear that this setup is a* reversal setup*. Prices tanked following the May19 and Jul19 company reports. I have no idea when the next report will be released. $30 should provide some support. The monthly chart shows possible support at $27. Price won't go to $45 quickly after being hammered so hard. The base pattern on the monthly chart lasted five years before investors were happy to pay >$25.


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## bigdog (23 January 2020)

CIMIC share price has plummeted as investors try to revalue the stock in light of the news!!!!

CIMIC will recognise a one-off post-tax impact of around $1.8 billion in its 2019 financial statements, representing all of CIMIC’s exposure in relation to BICC.

*ASX announcement today*
UPDATE ON BICC STRATEGIC REVIEW AND IMPACT ON 2019 RESULTS (uploaded)

23 JANUARY 2020
UPDATE ON BICC STRATEGIC REVIEW AND IMPACT ON 2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS
Update on strategic review of BICC CIMIC Group today announced that it has completed an extensive strategic review of its financial investment of a non-controlling 45% interest in BIC Contracting (BICC), a company operating in the Middle East region.

As a part of this review, CIMIC initiated a confidential M&A process in respect of its financial investment in BICC. Discussions continue with a shortlist of potential acquirers for all or part of BICC.

In addition, in the context of an accelerated deterioration of local market conditions, BICC is engaging in confidential discussions with its lenders, creditors, clients and other stakeholders.

After thorough evaluation of all available options, CIMIC has decided to exit the region and to focus its resources and capital allocation on growth opportunities in its main core markets and geographies (Australia, New Zealand and Asia Pacific).

*Financial impact*
In this context, CIMIC has reassessed its financial exposure to BICC, mainly shareholder loans and financial guarantees.

CIMIC will recognise a one-off post-tax impact of around $1.8 billion in its 2019 financial statements, representing all of CIMIC’s exposure in relation to BICC.

The aforementioned impact includes an expected cash outlay net of tax of around $700 million during 2020, as CIMIC’s financial guarantees of certain BICC liabilities materialise. CIMIC has committed facilities and cash available to meet all obligations as required.

Consequently, CIMIC will not declare a final dividend for 2019.

*2019 guidance*
Excluding the BICC impact, CIMIC expects to report NPAT for 2019 of around $800 million, in line with its 2019 guidance. CIMIC expects to announce its 2019 financial results on 4 February 2020.

Issued by CIMIC Group Limited ABN 57 004 482 982 www.cimic.com.au
Authorised by the CIMIC Group Board of Directors






288


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## peter2 (23 January 2020)

Miner said:


> it appears CIM is a hot potato and more troubles are coming.




@Miner  We were so right to be concerned by the price action in the CIM chart.
Unexpected corporate disappointments are like cockroaches, when ever we see one, there's always more around.


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## FactorMe (24 January 2020)

Grizzly82 said:


> 20% loss today - worth a buy?




I was thinking the same thing..   Cimic is on sale  ?


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## sptrawler (4 February 2020)

Here is another engineering/construction horror story.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...gs-to-1-billion-net-loss-20200204-p53xr7.html


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## Trav. (25 December 2020)

Trialing some new software and I still have my training wheels on so bear with me as I post a few charts and hopefully I can get 1 or 2 predictions correct

CIMIC recovering from October lows and was picked up in my scan. Wave 4 in the zone and are we looking at another leg up to complete wave 5?

Yesterday's close was a disappointment ( -3.6% ) was this due to the announcement of the 50% sale of Thiess ?


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## Trav. (31 December 2020)

News out today, and a nice sum of dollars there   💲 💰


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## Trav. (7 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> Trialing some new software and I still have my training wheels on so bear with me as I post a few charts and hopefully I can get 1 or 2 predictions correct
> 
> CIMIC recovering from October lows and was picked up in my scan. Wave 4 in the zone and are we looking at another leg up to complete wave 5?
> 
> ...



We missed the W4 target zone, but today was a big day up 4.1%

I have manually added the (4) and we will see if this is correct

holding


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## rnr (7 January 2021)

Trav. said:


> We missed the W4 target zone, but today was a big day up 4.1%
> 
> I have manually added the (4) and we will see if this is correct
> 
> ...




@Trav. Looks good along with the potential for a 6R+ profit at the $28 mark.
Cheers, Rob


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## Trav. (13 January 2021)

rnr said:


> @Trav. Looks good along with the potential for a 6R+ profit at the $28 mark.
> Cheers, Rob



CIM up today and finished strongly on the high.

Holding


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## Trav. (20 January 2021)

CIM retracing a bit over the last few days, as can be seen below it hit the minimum W5 point which is a bugger. 

Holding but finger poised over the sell button.


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## lucifuge1968 (10 February 2021)

Why so down today? is it tied to the dividend? their performance stats didn't seem to bad given Covid


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 February 2021)

lucifuge1968 said:


> Why so down today? is it tied to the dividend? their performance stats didn't seem to bad given Covid



Just google cimic Qatar unpaid workers slavery.

gg


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## KevinBB (13 November 2021)

well, its finally happened. The interesting part of this AFR story is that ASX investors are finally getting IPO fatigue.

Apart from Ventia, the AFR lists a number of IPOs that have been pulled in the last fortnight:


> _Raisings for ASX hopefuls including bus business ComfortDelGro Australia, copper miner Round Oak Metals, doctor booking service HealthEngine, comparison business Compare Club, and the big bopper, SG Lottery, were all pulled in the past fortnight._




Can't wait for Ventia to list on 19 November. Could be a few bargains to be had from those who have already committed to the IPO.

KH


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## dyna (14 November 2021)

Local Insto's were none too keen on the original $ 1 billion Ventia IPO priced at 12 times earnings with a healthy 6 % yield.
I've only applied for five grand worth, mainly for the dividend . Might try for more if the S.P dips a fair bit on listing.
It's an ok sort of company, for the long term.


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## KevinBB (19 November 2021)

KevinBB said:


> Can't wait for Ventia to list on 19 November. Could be a few bargains to be had from those who have already committed to the IPO.
> 
> KH





dyna said:


> Local Insto's were none too keen on the original $ 1 billion Ventia IPO priced at 12 times earnings with a healthy 6 % yield.
> I've only applied for five grand worth, mainly for the dividend . Might try for more if the S.P dips a fair bit on listing.
> It's an ok sort of company, for the long term.




No dip, opens at $2.08.
Still looking to buy this if the price does dip later on, but won't chase.
KH


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## dyna (19 November 2021)

Top 20  now hold 92 % of the share registry ,so it's tightly held.
CIMIC shareholders were scaled back to  $2,000 + 70 % above that.....just 17  million shares out of the 257 mill in the offer. Insto's got 193 million shares.


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## KevinBB (19 November 2021)

dyna said:


> Top 20  now hold 92 % of the share registry ,so it's tightly held.
> CIMIC shareholders were scaled back to  $2,000 + 70 % above that.....just 17  million shares out of the 257 mill in the offer. Insto's got 193 million shares.



And that's why I don't like the current share listing rules. They have been biased against the small shareholder for eons.

What's wrong with a demerger for cases like this, or the good old-fashioned issue of options? The issue sponsors and their close associates, 
those who get issued the shares at a discount, seem to make too much money out of issues like this.

KH


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## Dona Ferentes (23 February 2022)

Spanish construction company ACS is making a $1.5 billion bid to take full control of Australia’s CIMIC Group, potentially ending CIMICs 60 year stint on the Australian Securities Exchange and its decade long power struggle with its biggest investor.

ACS, via its subsidiary Hochtief, has *offered $22 a share *for all the CIMIC shares it does not already own. The offer was unconditional.  The bid was made at a 33 per cent premium to CIMICs last traded price and valued the company equity at about $8 billion.

The deal would see CIMIC, one of the biggest players in Australia’s construction sector, delisted and fully foreign owned. The group has nearly 30,000 employees


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## finicky (23 February 2022)

Taking everything. Hochtief via CIMIC grabbed Sedgman from us during a low a way back. I was a contented holder of Sedgman. Never tempted to follow the transaction into CIMIC which didn't have the quality of SDM.


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## Dona Ferentes (23 February 2022)

CIMIC makes about $10 billion a year in revenue and $1 billion in earnings from its engineering-led construction, mining, services and public-private partnerships units, which operate under names including *CPB Contractors, Leighton Asia, Thiess, Sedgman, UGL and Ventia*. Some of the businesses are part-owned with other investors.
Hochtief has had a controlling stake in CIMIC since 2001, and now owns 78.5 per cent of the company. ACS has a 50.5 per cent stake in Hochtief, which is listed in Germany.

and of course, the other end of the biz


> Building contractor *Probuild *has become the largest casualty of Australia’s increasingly pressured construction industry, after its South African parent appointed administrators after propping it up by 2 billion rand ($132.1 million) over the past four years.


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## System (12 May 2022)

On May 11th, 2022, CIMIC Group Limited (CIM) was removed from the ASX's official list in accordance with Listing Rule 17.14, following compulsory acquisition of its remaining securities by HOCHTIEF Australia Holdings Limited.


----------

