# Are the bears starting to wake up?



## DTM (18 January 2005)

Hello all     

Just wondering if anyone else is thinking the same.  

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Regards

Daniel

 :blover: 

PS Did anyone see that CBA wave today?  49c drop if you look at it from the high to the low.


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2005)

No why?


----------



## positivecashflow (18 January 2005)

Speaking of CBA, this was in an email newsletter sent out by Tricom...




> We have interest in the current setup on CBA as it approaches its usual dividend paying time of February.  Traditionally, bank stocks which are good yield investments run nicely into their upcoming dividends.  What also intrigues us in regard to CBA, while admitting that this is an 'early call', is the possibility that after 4 years of sideways price action this may be ready to make a move to the upside.  When you look at it, the banks haven't greatly participated in the bull market of the past 18 months.  Whilst they have continued to shell out the dividends, concerns about lending growth and margins have meant that outside of some of the regionals and perennial outperformer ST GEORGE, the banks have struggled for any decent upside.  In CBA's case we have a stock which has more or less gone nowhere since 2001, albeit having traded within a broad range predominantly between 2700 and 3400, with a couple of brief spikes lower.  Tracking now just above 3200 we see the possibility of CBA pushing towards the upper end of that range as we head towards the dividend date.




Not that I follow OZ stocks.. :aus: :bigun2:


----------



## positivecashflow (18 January 2005)

Tech/A,

Are you sure you're looking at the right chart?

CBA:

Open: 32.37
High: 32.54
Low: 32.05
Last: 32.12


----------



## phoenixrising (19 January 2005)

pcf,the charts the all ord's

Tech, just an observation,while at the Syd Traders Expo a seemingly well credentialed person commented on a similar chart.He called it 3 strikes and your out.It featured a rising trend followed by a sharper rising trend and yet another sharper rising trend.To him a reversal was iminent.

Just a thought.

Cheers


----------



## positivecashflow (19 January 2005)

Thanks for correcting me phoenixrising.. sorry tech/a for the misunderstanding.


----------



## DTM (19 January 2005)

I remember on the news over the holidays everyone was saying that the XAO could possibly reach 4100.  Does this mean that most institutions are looking at it that way and could be possibly planning to phase out of the stock market?

Looking at the XAO, it seems to have been climbing since mid December with less volume.  

If you had a guess as to where it would peak, what would your guess be?

 :bong:


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2005)

Currently I dont see any bearishness but that could change and when it does then Ill trade it as such.

tech


----------



## money tree (23 February 2005)

XJO broke a significant level today being 4140. Also it broke a decent trendline.


----------



## wayneL (23 February 2005)

I've got nuttin' but shorts ATM. Dow had biggest down day in 16 months or something last night.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2005)

Wayne your short USA stocks or the index?
Or sold calls.


----------



## money tree (23 February 2005)

I wrote XJO calls and wrote puts on high yield stocks such as NAB & QAN. Also wrote CML puts @ 912.

We need a 300pt drop.


----------



## wayneL (23 February 2005)

Tech,

Mainly bear credit spreads and put ratio backspreads (these having started life as bull spreads) on US stocks.

A typical setup below:


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2005)

M/T over what time frame.300 pts is not out of the question(But interested in timeframe).But would hardly call that a bear market.

Wayne Ill have to look up my Funk and Wagnels.


----------



## SuperTed (25 February 2005)

money tree said:
			
		

> I wrote XJO calls and wrote puts on high yield stocks such as NAB & QAN. Also wrote CML puts @ 912.
> 
> We need a 300pt drop.





From another post titled "yr mission Jim" you said:



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> "My current strategy returns 187% p.a. with zero risk. The previous strategy ran at +51% with zero risk."




Am I sceptical? ;-) or am I missing something


----------



## money tree (25 February 2005)

one is trading and the other is investing


----------



## DTM (25 February 2005)

Had an interesting conversation with other traders today.  They were both saying that the current market is similar to the XAO 1987 pre crash charts.  

Any thoughts?  (my software doesn't go back that far)

I thought it was confirmation when I saw a report on TV saying that more than 1 million people traded at least seven times per year in Australia.  

It seems that when ever every man and his dog decides to jump on the share market band wagon, its time to take your money and run.  Does anyone else feel like its a feeding frenzy out there too?


----------



## wayneL (26 February 2005)

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,16849-1497723,00.html


----------



## markrmau (26 February 2005)

If you really want an alarmist view of things, try this:

http://view.exacttarget.com/?ffcd16-fecc1c707765037c-fe0815737561067c74117377

Personally I think we will see the aords at 4500 soon.


----------



## SuperTed (27 February 2005)

money tree said:
			
		

> one is trading and the other is investing




I would give up the trading part then


----------

