# BASIC trading strategy that can work?



## grah33 (16 January 2015)

Hi

i've been buying in the game  several of the "top gains " stocks as reported by the asx site. i made some great wins in the game, but also saw some bad losses on other weeks.  what do you think of this strategy:

diversify through buying eg. 6-10 of the "top gains stocks". (buy them as they are reported on the website or soon after)
eg. $2,000 each (might start at $500 first)

sell when they go up a good amount - eg.5%-30%
LEAVE bad stocks alone. let them go down.  eventually after some time (could be 1-4 months) they'll go back up again.

focus on picking stocks that show  prices cycled up/down in the last few months.don't get something that has a steady long term down trend. use volatile stocks for this.

what do you think?  in the game i locked out some heavy losses, but if i look at the price charts of these stocks, quite a few come back to positive values or at least break back to zero.  my strategy would be to diversify and sell off the good stocks and buy new ones to replace them and as for the bad stocks, to simply wait - could be a month or 2 before they roll over positive again.  i'm thinking this might work.

and are there any other "no brainer " strategies that would help someone gain some money.obviously this isn't as good as professional day trading but i would be delighted to get something positive out of it. might be better than long term investing on blue chip stocks

thanks


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## Julia (16 January 2015)

grah33 said:


> sell when they go up a good amount - eg.5%-30%
> LEAVE bad stocks alone. let them go down.  eventually after some time (could be 1-4 months) they'll go back up again.



Possible translation:  instead of letting your winners run, you're going to dump them while holding on to losers.
Why would you assume that something going down is necessarily going to go up again?



> focus on picking stocks that show  prices cycled up/down in the last few months.don't get something that has a steady long term down trend. use volatile stocks for this.



What would be your reason for buying anything that is in what you describe as a 'steady long term downtrend'?



> my strategy would be to diversify and sell off the good stocks and buy new ones to replace them



What criteria would you use to determine that the 'new stocks' will be more profitable than those you have already described as 'good stocks' by which I imagine you mean profitable?


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## hhse (17 January 2015)

There is more than one way to make money other than just being long/bullish stock - you have the benefit of not being restricted like a super fund and shouldn't try to act like one.


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## tech/a (17 January 2015)

hhse said:


> There is more than one way to make money other than just being long/bullish stock - you have the benefit of not being restricted like a super fund and shouldn't try to act like one.




Agree and preferable
But that's where most start.


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## DJG (17 January 2015)

> i've been buying in the game  several of the "top gains " stocks as reported by the asx site. i made some great wins in the game, but also saw some bad losses on other weeks.  what do you think of this strategy:
> 
> what do you think?  in the game i locked out some heavy losses, but if i look at the price charts of these stocks, quite a few come back to positive values or at least break back to zero.  my strategy would be to diversify and sell off the good stocks and buy new ones to replace them and as for the bad stocks, to simply wait - could be a month or 2 before they roll over positive again.  i'm thinking this might work.




You were using fake money, how would you feel if you were to lose 20-50% on a single holding? What about three holdings? etc. (of real money by the way)



> diversify through buying eg. 6-10 of the "top gains stocks". (buy them as they are reported on the website or soon after)
> eg. $2,000 each (might start at $500 first)
> 
> sell when they go up a good amount - eg.5%-30%
> LEAVE bad stocks alone. let them go down.  eventually after some time (could be 1-4 months) they'll go back up again.




Who's to say it'll continue it's march up the following days/weeks? Additionally, who's to say that it'll only take 1 - 4 months for them to reverse?

Oh, and brokerage will eat right into that $500.

If it was this easy, everyone would be using the same strategy and making 'no brainer' easy money.


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## burglar (18 January 2015)

grah33 said:


> ... thanks




grah33, what makes share price go up?


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## grah33 (21 January 2015)

burglar said:


> grah33, what makes share price go up?




waht makes those stocks go up? top gains stocks reported on asx,  maybe nothing in particular. i don't know.  they are often just volatile

the point of my strategy is that many of those volatile stocks that go negative, if you wait some time (maybe 4 weeks),  they tend to go the other way as well (i checked the price charts and saw this).  I could wait as long as it takes for enough of them to turn round if necessary   perhaps this no brainer strategy could at least give me a little money on the side.



the other strategy i'm also trying now (in the game of course) is to buy say 6 stocks, same value for each, of the top gains stocks . if a stock goes down 3.5% , i sell it off and buy another.  if i get a good stock, i wait until it makes 7.5% or so, then take the profit.  each time a stock goes out, i replace with another one. wonder how that will go.  with a low 9$ brokerage could be alright... but i'm just testing stuff out in the game, even if it's not the normal way of doing things. you learn something anyway.


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## burglar (21 January 2015)

burglar said:


> Hi Shield11,
> Welcome to ASF!
> 
> It's an "all depends" question.
> ...





I had suspected that you might be guessing!


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## grah33 (22 January 2015)

burglar said:


> I had suspected that you might be guessing!




yes,  i'm guessing, but if i keep cutting out the bad ones early (3.5% decrease means exit) and running the better ones, it might work.   i'm assumming i guess that 1/2 the stocks i pick are bad and the other half are good.  or maybe it will work much better when the market is rising.


you mentioned that the overall market effects stocks prices significantly. can you give me more detail on this with numbers.  i take it we should always be looking at the general index (all ordinaries, and individual sector indices) because if these guys go down, our stocks tend to follow.  what kind of change in index value is significant and /or for how long? maybe if index is going up most of the top gains stocks will be good picks?  don't know, just musing around and trying to understand.  any information on how the overall index effects inidividual stocks would be helpful.


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## Wysiwyg (22 January 2015)

grah33 said:


> yes,  i'm guessing, but if i keep cutting out the bad ones early (3.5% decrease means exit) and running the better ones, it might work.



 Hope ye not see this as butting in but 3.5% isn't a lot of (as Tech/A says) wiggle room. Many stocks make that range in a day and most in a week so you would be taking lots of stop outs and paying lots of brokerage. I have just run two simple system backtests for the last 12 months. One with a 3.5% stop loss on the left with 18 consecutive losers and on the right with a 15% stop loss and 3 consecutive losers. Not to mention the profit and drawdown. If you check the statistics you will see great variation. The wiggle range will vary between stocks.


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## tech/a (22 January 2015)

I think this is a position sizing issue .
What G is trying to do is minimize risk.
His idea is to quit a trade if it falls 3.5%

Better to use % of equity loss rather than stock price loss.

Here is an example.
You buy Stock XYZ at $1
You don't want to lose more than 1% of your $10000 equity.---$100
But you want to give the stock 15% wiggle room.

That's 15c so you dont want to risk more than $100
So to do this you can buy 667 shares ---$100/.15 = 667

So you get your wriggle room and satisfy risk.

You can of course adjust 
Wiggle room %
Equity % risk

But of course no amount of Risk management will save an inherently unprofitable trading method

*Personally Id place Guessing in this group*.


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## burglar (22 January 2015)

grah33 said:


> ...  i'm assumming i guess that 1/2 the stocks i pick are bad and the other half are good.  or maybe it will work much better when the market is rising.




I see you are learning a lot!

You are now cutting your losers and running your winners!
This is opposite to where you were (and in my opinion incorrect)!

Forget about bad picks vs good picks. 
It is not the path to profitability.
It will lead you up the garden path.

Read more of tech/a posts to find out what will make you profitable!


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## Habakkuk (22 January 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Hope ye not see this as butting in but 3.5% isn't a lot of (as Tech/A says) wiggle room. Many stocks make that range in a day and most in a week so you would be taking lots of stop outs and paying lots of brokerage. I have just run two simple system backtests for the last 12 months. One with a 3.5% stop loss on the left with 18 consecutive losers and on the right with a 15% stop loss and 3 consecutive losers. Not to mention the profit and drawdown. If you check the statistics you will see great variation. The wiggle range will vary between stocks.
> 
> View attachment 61264





How do you get negative exposure in the system on the right?
I've never seen that in Amibroker.
Are they the same system with different stop loss?


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## Julia (22 January 2015)

tech/a said:


> Better to use % of equity loss rather than stock price loss.



It would never have occurred to me to do other than this.  It's always % win or loss on your total investment that counts, not individual SP movement which, as wysiwyg points out, can be considerable in a very short time.



> *Personally Id place Guessing in this group*.



+1.  And why I've asked how the stock selection process occurs with the OP.
Just randomly picking a bunch of stocks, without any qualifying criteria, might be fun in a game, but isn't going to cut in the real money world.


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## Wysiwyg (22 January 2015)

Habakkuk said:


> How do you get negative exposure in the system on the right?
> I've never seen that in Amibroker.
> Are they the same system with different stop loss?




Amibroker backtest program prints the numbers and Amibroker docs. states -
1) Exposure % - 'Market exposure of the trading system calculated on bar by bar basis. Sum of bar exposures divided by number of bars. Single bar exposure is the value of open positions divided by portfolio equity.

2) The only difference is the left test is 3.5% stop loss and the right test is 15% stop loss.


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## Habakkuk (22 January 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Amibroker backtest program prints the numbers and Amibroker docs. states -
> 1) Exposure % - 'Market exposure of the trading system calculated on bar by bar basis. Sum of bar exposures divided by number of bars. Single bar exposure is the value of open positions divided by portfolio equity..





I know that, but I can't figure out why it shows NEGATIVE  exposure on the right. What does that mean ?
How is that even possible ?
But don't worry too much about it. I was just surprised to see such a big difference due to the stop loss parameter.
I thought they had to be different systems.


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## Wysiwyg (23 January 2015)

Habakkuk said:


> But don't worry too much about it. *I was just surprised to see such a big difference due to the stop loss parameter.*
> I thought they had to be different systems.



 Obvious on a real time trading daily basis. Daily price range of 3.5% or greater is common therefore a buy one day and forced sell the next day would be all too common as the backtest results show and real life trading shows. A daily price range of 15% is much less common. A 15% move usually takes longer than a day or two or three.
A fixed percentage stop is a dumb idea anyhow as volatility varies with every security.


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## Wysiwyg (3 September 2016)

Is there anything basic besides trading with a trend or trading pivot points? I feel I am at the end of a long journey and have come full circle.


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## CanOz (3 September 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Is there anything basic besides trading with a trend or trading pivot points? I feel I am at the end of a long journey and have come full circle.




Well every trading method attempts to capture a small amount of trend, therefore in reality every system or method is trend trading by nature . Why are pivot points basic and who says they work any better than random lines?

Is you want something simple, try a condition then a pattern...example, trend/stall /trap / continue


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## Quant (3 September 2016)

The title of this thread is an oxymoron i'm afraid   , well especially in the current range bound market  . BASIC = mediocre in my mind ... good luck with it  , systems that stand the test of time with acceptable drawdowns are never basic for if it was so everyone would be rich . I like the fact its hard for obvious reasons 

Close this thread   ... my 



Oh and Wysiwyg   , my signature leads to the yellow brick road 
                                vvvvvvvvvv


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## Wysiwyg (3 September 2016)

Quant said:


> Oh and Wysiwyg   , my signature leads to the yellow brick road
> vvvvvvvvvv



My experience with the V word is a terrible case of whipsaw. Volatility up sooner or later is volatility down. When you get on a trade in the direction of volatility it is a great multiplier but gee if you hit the button when volatility reverses then your stop loss could get some (serious) slippage.


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## tech/a (3 September 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> My experience with the V word is a terrible case of whipsaw. Volatility up sooner or later is volatility down. When you get on a trade in the direction of volatility it is a great multiplier but gee if you hit the button when volatility reverses then your stop loss could get some (serious) slippage.




That's your execution


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## Wysiwyg (3 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> That's your execution



You're right Tech. My timing is terrible and my fear levels are hitting the roof.


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## tech/a (3 September 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> You're right Tech. My timing is terrible and my fear levels are hitting the roof.




I can understand that.

But
In my experience fear --- of loss can be deleted by trading well within you limits.

Let's take trading he DAX 
If I have an  account of say 100 k trading a few contracts is no issue even with a 100 tick loss.
But if I'm trading 10-20 lots with the same Account then that could be scary
Particularly if I only had $100k to my name.
If I had 20 or 50 of them then no fear at all.

Now fear of failure-----different beast.


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## Gringotts Bank (3 September 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> You're right Tech. My timing is terrible and my fear levels are hitting the roof.




Suggestion:  Calculate your net trading capital.  Withdraw 0.5% of it and go to the casino and play a few hours of blackjack.  As you play,try to understand what "letting go of fear" really means.  You have to mentally write off the cash as "gone and irretrievable" and yet still play, hand after hand after hand.  That's what trading requires.  If there's even the tiniest desire for the cards to fall your way, or fear that they won't, then you're not doing it correctly.  Complete and utter carefree abandon combined with methodological precision. If you start to win, notice the tension creep into the body and get back to not caring.  Then recall it for Monday's trading.  If you lose and start to feel badly stop and walk away, regain composure and start again.  You can't win feeling badly.  Find an aspect of the game which interests you (other than the win/loss aspect).


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## CanOz (3 September 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Suggestion:  Calculate your net trading capital.  Withdraw 0.5% of it and go to the casino and play a few hours of blackjack.  As you play,try to understand what "letting go of fear" really means.  You have to mentally write off the cash as "gone and irretrievable" and yet still play, hand after hand after hand.  That's what trading requires.  If there's even the tiniest desire for the cards to fall your way, or fear that they won't, then you're not doing it correctly.  Complete and utter carefree abandon combined with methodological precision. If you start to win, notice the tension creep into the body and get back to not caring.  Then recall it for Monday's trading.  If you lose and start to feel badly stop and walk away, regain composure and start again.  You can't win feeling badly.  Find an aspect of the game which interests you (other than the win/loss aspect).




GB , great post.


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## Quant (3 September 2016)

CanOz said:


> GB , great post.




Not sure what going to a casino playing blackjack has to do with trading . Blackjack best case scenario expectancy  ( assuming you play a probability based strategy , which maybe 1 in 100 do )  is -0.02   , if you are actually aware as a trader that is your expectancy all i can suggest is GIVE UP TRADING  ..   At least its commonly know you cant beat the casino without cheating so its a no brainer you arent going to get rich playing casino at their games . This is why i am so full on about expectancy because there are so many traders out there with an expectancy substansially lower than that of blackjack and are totally oblivious to it  . I will never get used to losing as its statistically unlikely over the long haul   .  If the casino is a metaphor for your trading i think you are in the wrong game with all due respect  ....

Blackjack simulation


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## Gringotts Bank (3 September 2016)

Quant said:


> Not sure what going to a casino playing blackjack has to do with trading




Forget about statistics and house edge for a minute.  Consider two guys playing against _each other_ in blackjack.  They have identical experience, bankroll, bet size, skill and knowledge.  One of them is happy and relaxed, the other is miserable and tense.  The odds are stacked firmly in favour of the relaxed, happy guy.  This is the psychological edge, and it is hugely influential in determining the bottom line.


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## Quant (3 September 2016)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Forget about statistics and house edge for a minute.  Consider two guys playing against _each other_ in blackjack.  They have identical experience, bankroll, bet size, skill and knowledge.  One of them is happy and relaxed, the other is miserable and tense.  The odds are stacked firmly in favour of the relaxed, happy guy.  This is the psychological edge, and it is hugely influential in determining the bottom line.




Regardless of my emotional state i play blackjack like i trade , as i keep saying its about skill and probability understanding not emotions . Now if we were talking pot limit or no limit poker that might be a tad different but nevertheless poker is still significantly probability based with a bit of pysche reading . The point being is when i trade i am the CASINO

when i play blackjack i know exactly what to do before the cards are laid out , the same goes with my trading . its predetermined based on probabilities . i dont have to think about it for a second


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## CanOz (3 September 2016)

I liked the idea of taking a crack at the casino with.5% risk...the choice of games is where the edge is.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

If I'm staking against an opponent with unlimited funds and a known edge I'm being reckless 

If I'm Kerry Packer with unlimited funds and no fear of loss I can win purely by being lucky with size.

But I'm gambling.

If I'm trading with an edge I'm not gambling.
I'm running a business. Just as any casino is


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## Triathlete (4 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> If I'm staking against an opponent with unlimited funds and a known edge I'm being reckless
> 
> If I'm Kerry Packer with unlimited funds and no fear of loss I can win purely by being lucky with size.
> 
> ...




+1..


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## Trendnomics (4 September 2016)

I find it strange how some posters have completely misconstrued Gringotts Bank's post.

His post outlined an excellent technique, that can be used to explore and analyse your own level of loss aversion (*using real money*) - *trading psychology:* the negative emotions experienced from a loss is far greater, than the positive emotions experienced from a gain.

Clearly trading psychology is Wysiwyg's main obstacle, I'm sure after 10 years on ASF, he has the fundamental knowledge required to succeed, but perhaps he needs to re-adjust his relationship with money and improve on his emotional intelligence.

For those who dismiss the importance of trading psychology, I doubt your trading ability.


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## Quant (4 September 2016)

Firstly the only thing that judges my ability as a trader is my P&L so whether someone doubts my skills due to the fact i discount trader psychology  ...   MEH care factor zero 

Once again i will say it , if you work and develop an empirically tested rules based systemtatic approach with a robust expectancy with a rock solid set of definable parameters all your stress becomes a moot point . You know the prime reason traders stress  ... Their method is not sustainable with a discipilined approach , its broken , its **** . If it wasnt there would be nothing to stress about , of course there will be exceptions and maybe these people need to seek a head doctor but in the main its all about method  . There is nothing more to say

previously i was a **** directionless discretionary trader and now i am not and it was freaking hard work , but ALL the work was on METHOD


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## Quant (4 September 2016)

Reality is confronting but it is the only TRUTH


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## Wyatt (4 September 2016)

Quant said:


> Reality is confronting but it is the only TRUTH




Love your work, I take it you're a mean reversion type of guy, but I may have got that wrong, maybe you have a number of strategies. Any chance of posting some backtests/results to give the rest of us an idea where the the bar is set?

Cheers,
Wyatt


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## minwa (4 September 2016)

Trendnomics said:


> For those who dismiss the importance of trading psychology, I doubt your trading ability.




One of those rare occassions I agree 100% with you 

Before AI have a mind of their own, there is ALWAYS human input behind ANY mechanical system. The temptation to alter rules is always there, the doubt to hold through draw downs is always there, the greed to increase position size/trade more markets on good runs is always there. Not to mention human factors that is always present hindering performance of every trader - nagging partner, sick child, fat finger typing input mistake, coding error, technical outages.

Any that claim they have no emotions are machines - therefore you are not motivated by money but only sole existence is to follow orders programmed upon you.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

minwa said:


> One of those rare occassions I agree 100% with you
> 
> Before AI have a mind of their own, there is ALWAYS human input behind ANY mechanical system. The temptation to alter rules is always there, the doubt to hold through draw downs is always there, the greed to increase position size/trade more markets on good runs is always there. Not to mention human factors that is always present hindering performance of every trader - nagging partner, sick child, fat finger typing input mistake, coding error, technical outages.
> 
> Any that claim they have no emotions are machines - therefore you are not motivated by money but only sole existence is to follow orders programmed upon you.




Again I'm in Quants camp.

I'm not motivated by money
I'm motivated by the challenge and the acceptance of that challenge.
Success or failure is measured in P&L

Trading,Property,Civil construction company
All businesses all completely free of emotion.
I've found all of those who I come in contact with who look at business---any business----as a challenge to be answered without fear of loss staked against a strong tested and proven plan---which may alter from business to business----enjoy success.

Have I and others had losing months and losing years----of course
Do we need to visit a psychologist --- no---- we learn from experience and embrace all challenges.

Fear for some is confidence for others---these are those with experience.


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## minwa (4 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> I'm not motivated by *money*
> I'm motivated by the challenge and the acceptance of that challenge.
> Success or failure is measured in *P&L*




But P/L *IS* money ?

Fascinating..let me know why you think P/L is not money - real or demo.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

minwa said:


> But P/L *IS* money ?
> 
> Fascinating..let me know why you think P/L is not money - real or demo.




It's certainly money

It's not the motivation it's the record of failure Or success.

If you successfully answer the challenge of ANY business the money comes.
If you simply want more money you need to know how to accept that challenge.
The better you become the more money you will find flows into your business.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

Let me use another example

Your a wage earner you want more money

If your motivated by being as valuable as you can to your employer
The money will come.
Just being motivated by being given more money won't make you a valuable asset
If your motivated by becoming as good as you can---the money will follow.


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## minwa (4 September 2016)

Sorry, anyone that enters in the market with a sane mind to speculate IS motivated by money. You say you are motivated by becoming as good as you can in trading - let's measure it in futures market ticks. What does this give you ? MONEY. I do not know of anyone who want to accumulate profitable ticks in the market for reasons other than monetary. 

In business it could be different yes like an architect would feel absolute great in having their designs built into reality. Their dream/vision coming into fruition may be greater than their monetary incentive. This is not the same in speculating in the market - you would NOT be trading if there wasn't monetary benefit involved. You yourself said you could think of nothing worse than glued to the screen for hours trading full time - but do this because it supplements your income which basically says you do not just trade for the challenge.

At the end of the day P/L money made is the underlying factor. We trade to make money, not to be right.

Let me ask you one question - which offer would you take ?

1.  I will give you $2000 today, but you must take today's trading session off.
2.  I will allow you to go into the market and take on the challenge to make as many ticks as possible. But whatever harvested you cannot be paid. Your reward is gaining the satisfaction that you made xx number of ticks.

Unless you can honestly say you would rather offer 2 then you ARE motivated by money to trade.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

Our views are different 
That's ok.

I'd actually take 2 as I don't need the money.
I'm on a few boards and let me tell you it's not about the money.


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## minwa (4 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> Our views are different
> That's ok.
> 
> I'd actually take 2 as I don't need the money.
> I'm on a few boards and let me tell you it's not about the money.




That's very interesting..you're a first that I've met that would day trade for nothing other than positive numbers on a computer screen. If I had all the money I need I would definitely not be sitting for hours bleeding my eyes over moving pixels & numbers. 

Maybe I can understand now..I get a rush and enjoyment from video games which is also just flashing graphics and you see the market as this.

For 99% others on this board myself included who do not have all the money they need and are looking to profit monetarily from the markets - they ARE motivated by money therefore emotions does play a part.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

minwa said:


> That's very interesting..you're a first that I've met that would day trade for nothing other than positive numbers on a computer screen. If I had all the money I need I would definitely not be sitting for hours bleeding my eyes over moving pixels & numbers.
> 
> For 99% others on this board myself included who do not have all the money they need and are looking to profit monetarily from the markets - they ARE motivated by money therefore emotions does play a part.




I don't sit for hrs
Perhaps 2 hrs a week
None for the last 8 weeks
Have been traveling.

There are easier ways to make $$s than trading
And there are no easier ways to make money than trading
I'll leave that one with you!


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## minwa (4 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> I don't sit for hrs
> Perhaps 2 hrs a week
> None for the last 8 weeks
> Have been traveling.
> ...




Time is irrelevant. You rather a big demo win of 20 ticks than say 10 ticks of live money real $ in the bank is your conclusion. Fair enough. Just trying to wrap my head around that.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

minwa said:


> Time is irrelevant. You rather a big demo win of 20 ticks than say 10 ticks of live money real $ in the bank is your conclusion. Fair enough. Just trying to wrap my head around that.




Sorry you've lost me.

I wouldn't sit for even an hr without long term profit----long term loss would have me re valuating my blue print
The only reason I can trade when I want for as long as I want is the hrs spent refining my trading method to the point where I can switch in and out of the market when I want.
Profit is the result of answering the challenge of designing a method which allows me the flexibility to trade as I want.

Where you've pulled this demo thing from has me baffled.

We are streets apart
That to is fine.


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## minwa (4 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> Sorry you've lost me.
> 
> I wouldn't sit for even an hr without long term profit----long term loss would have me re valuating my blue print
> The only reason I can trade when I want for as long as I want is the hrs spent refining my trading method to the point where I can switch in and out of the market when I want.
> ...




I was putting into context of your previous points where you say you are not in the market for money and would take offer 2 - the choice of a better entry/exit with no monetary reward (ie. on a demo account) than the gain of money itself.


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## tech/a (4 September 2016)

Oh I see 

Off to bed catch up on my jet lag


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## Gringotts Bank (4 September 2016)

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.617.5144
http://psychology.uga.edu/sites/default/files/Lakey et al. 2008 JBDM.pdf

These research papers found a link between narcissism and poor performance on a standardized gambling task (IGT).  The IGT requires the gambler to *learn *how to be profitable.

Why is this relevant?

Because narcissism can be used as a proxy for low self-acceptance or low self-worth (the former being a reaction to the latter).  Presumably this will be more important for discretionary traders, but will apply to some extent to all traders.  It makes sense that impulsivity, over-trading and inability to delay gratification would result is excessive risk taking and the potential for failure in the longer term.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that the reverse would be true also - ie. that those with high self-acceptance would find discretionary trading an easier and more profitable prospect.  Though I can't find any studies on this.

[edited]


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## banco (4 September 2016)

tech/a said:


> Sorry you've lost me.
> 
> I wouldn't sit for even an hr without long term profit----long term loss would have me re valuating my blue print
> The only reason I can trade when I want for as long as I want is the hrs spent refining my trading method to the point where I can switch in and out of the market when I want.
> ...




I don't recall you making much (if any) profits when you were competing against CanOz.


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## tech/a (5 September 2016)

banco said:


> I don't recall you making much (if any) profits when you were competing against CanOz.




Neither of us did.


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