# SUL - Super Retail Group



## GumbyLearner (30 December 2008)

I noticed there was no thread for this stock.

Due to the vast majority of new car sales in Australia being obtained on credit that wont be as easily available now and also rising unemployment I think this stock might have a solid future for the next few years.

SUL has 250 Super Cheap Auto stores across Australia and New Zealand.
They had a 6.3% increase in sales btw 2007-2008, roughly $550 million in total sales.

They have recently spent some marketing cash about $44 million re-furbishing 30 stores Australia-wide. 

P/E Ratio: 10.66 
Dividend: 0.08 
Yield: 5.81% 
EPS: 0.24 
Market Cap: 275,104,425 
Shares Out: 106,629,622 

SUL's current external debt is approx. $110 million.

SUL also owns Boating Camping Fishing (BCF) which has 49 stores across Australia and has recently purchased the Gold Cross Cycling chain of stores.

They have recently spent some marketing cash of about $44 million re-furbishing 30 stores Australia-wide. 

They announced 17 weeks of 12.2% sales growth to 25 Oct 2008,
comparative year-on-year. 

Im sure with many family budgets under pressure and the resulting lack of new car sales. Is it possible that many consumers may decide to service their current vehicles in the yard (DIY) with basic parts like oil filters, plugs, points and replacing things like oil, brake fluid, coolant etc... 

This may be one retail stock that might improve sales due to the implosion in the new auto sales. A possible trend-bucker maybe. 

They are currently trading at about $2.58 on the ASX.

Will Australians remain as automotive service dependent during the downturn?

Any thoughts?  

I dont hold these as yet but have been on my watchlist for a while
Do your own research
As always this is just my opinion!


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## bloomy88 (1 April 2009)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto*

I agree with you that SUL could be a good buy in current market conditions, especially as it is seen as a discount store that will "beat any advertised price".

From what I have read about them all the broker seem to think they are a good buy, with all 5 brokers on investsmart.com.au recomending it as a buy.

One downside for SUL is that they are in a very competitive industry with companies like Bursons and Repco competing against them.
The purchase of Goldcross may have been mistimed as well as i expect that bike sales will fall in the current economic climate.

At their current share price of $2.30 they could represent a good long-term buy for the future though...
SUL also pay fully franked dividends and at the moment their yeild is approximately 6%
Any thought would be appreciated

Cheers
Bloomy


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## Out Too Soon (26 November 2009)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto*

Fortunately I'm not a holder at the moment. sp dropped like a stone yesterday & yet I can't find a reason- no ann, rumours 
 Any one know what happened?


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## skc (26 November 2009)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto*



Out Too Soon said:


> Fortunately I'm not a holder at the moment. sp dropped like a stone yesterday & yet I can't find a reason- no ann, rumours
> Any one know what happened?




SUL's liquidity fluctuates quite a bit... sometimes it's just a hole in the market depth meeting a keen seller. Volume in the past few days are so light it is unlikely to be anything really important. 

Gave me a perfect entry as a pairs trade against Harvey Norman... there are no better short opportunities around than shorting a ramping CEO.


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## Out Too Soon (30 November 2009)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto*



skc said:


> SUL's liquidity fluctuates quite a bit... sometimes it's just a hole in the market depth meeting a keen seller. Volume in the past few days are so light it is unlikely to be anything really important.
> 
> Gave me a perfect entry as a pairs trade against Harvey Norman... there are no better short opportunities around than shorting a ramping CEO.




I'm hoping it's a good buying opportunity, SUL has been good to me in the past & I'm good to them ie: a good customer


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## GumbyLearner (15 January 2010)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto Group*

Just thought I would re-visit this thread.

What a trend-bucker these proved to be.

With Aussie car manufacturing and sales at all time low throughout 2009.
It looks like many DIY backyard mechanics went out and bought up on spare parts.

Increase in like-for-like sales last reported 16% growth for 17 weeks to October 24 FY 2009-2010 compared to 2008-2009

Currently sitting on $5.53 a share. Definitely still appears performing well. IMHO

DYOR

Also, divs looking a lot more enticing if you bought in this time last year.


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## UMike (16 January 2010)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto Group*



GumbyLearner said:


> Just thought I would re-visit this thread.
> 
> What a trend-bucker these proved to be.
> 
> ...




Not that surprised as people are keeping their cars that year or two longer and just maintaining or sprucing them up a bit.

BCF is also a big winner (plus would have a greater profit margin on overall sales I presume)


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## skc (28 January 2010)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto Group*

Pretty aggressive sell off to SUL since the half year trading update yesterday.

I actually thought the results weren't that bad. 

- Like for like sales growth 6-9% and total growth ~12%. 
- EBITDA margin up by 40 to 120 bps
- Group EBITA ~20-21% higher than pcp
- Goldencross cycles underperformed and lost $3.5m + further $2m write down

You can do a lot worst in retail then these figures. Personally I like the Supercheap auto stores, and I think a lot of growth is yet to come in the BCF banner. Also important to remember that these figures were not growth from a low base, but consistent growth year on year.

Is SUL getting super cheap? EPS last year was 30.2c, this year probably ~35c, leaving a PE of 14... Compare that to Harvey Norman trading at similar PE... I would say SUL can probably outperform over the next few years.


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## GumbyLearner (27 April 2010)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto Group*

*Super Cheap to buy Ray's Outdoors*

http://www.theage.com.au/business/super-cheap-to-buy-rays-outdoors-20100427-tojc.html

Super Cheap Auto Group says it will buy outdoor leisure retailer Ray's Outdoors for $54 million, funded through share placements to raise $86 million.

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, managing Peter Birtles said Ray's Outdoors was a strong brand which complemented its BCF (Boating Camping Fishing) brand.

"The company has the capital and systems to accelerate the growth of the business," Mr Birtles said.


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## subasurf (28 April 2010)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto Group*

Volume skyrocketed today as the trading halt was lifted and more shares were offered.
Volume was at 92,095 on the 23rd and as of right now it's up at 2,242,343. Jeebus.


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## GumbyLearner (24 February 2011)

*Re: SUL - Super Cheap Auto Group*

Super Cheap sales motor along.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/super-cheap-sales-motor-along/story-e6frg8zx-1226010996299

STRONG demand for motoring and fishing accessories propelled the Super Retail Group to a 60 per cent increase in net profit to nearly $25 million in the six months to the end of December.

******************************************************************
What a great result, another defying the retail downturn.
Dividends increased to 11.5 cents too! 

Well dip me in honey and throw me to the lesbians.

DYOR


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## clinta44 (10 January 2012)

Any thoughts on the resent take over of the Rebel sports group? 

it will add a good bost to sales but I am not convinced the price was right.


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## McCoy Pauley (10 January 2012)

I'm just undertaking some research into SUL at the moment.  It's hard to comment on whether SUL overpaid for the Rebel Group because, at least based on what I've found to date, the average "mum and dad" investor does not have access to the financial records of the Rebel Group.

However, SUL did dilute its shareholder base significantly and also raised a considerable amount of debt to fund the purchase of the Rebel Group.  Both are gutsy moves in the current retail environment, though SUL did announce to the market some (on the surface) pleasing numbers yesterday on its first half performance.

Despite the best efforts of spin from the SUL corporate advisers, I'm not too sure whether the acquisition of the Rebel Group is all that complementary to SUL's activities.  I think of Super Cheap Auto when I think of SUL, and Ray's Outdoors is also a strong brand - but I do not associate either business with a sporting goods retailer, such as Rebel Sport.

Having said that, apart from Rebel Sport, I struggle to think of many other sporting goods retailers that have more than a couple of stores.  You'd have Athletes Foot and Foot Locker, but apart from that I'm struggling.  So there would be some brand name recognition in Rebel Sport (I don't know anything about Amart, as I don't live in the States and Territories in which it operates).


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## skc (10 January 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I'm just undertaking some research into SUL at the moment.  It's hard to comment on whether SUL overpaid for the Rebel Group because, at least based on what I've found to date, the average "mum and dad" investor does not have access to the financial records of the Rebel Group.
> 
> However, SUL did dilute its shareholder base significantly and also raised a considerable amount of debt to fund the purchase of the Rebel Group.  Both are gutsy moves in the current retail environment, though SUL did announce to the market some (on the surface) pleasing numbers yesterday on its first half performance.
> 
> ...




Don't know if SUL overpaid for Rebel, but I am sure if you buy anything at Rebel you definitely overpaid compared to the Internet. Bought some basketball boots for ~$100 from US including shipping and they sell for ~$215 in various Aussie retailers. RCG (owner of Athletes Food) had a profit downgrade last year so the sporting goods market isn't immune from the downturn.

I've been to SUL shops a few times and they seem awefully quiet for the times that I was there... but I am no petrol head (do petrol heads shop there?) and me buying a few carwash sponges probably means nothing in the whole scheme of things.

Based on first person anecdote, I am not filled with confidence about the prospect of SUL. But their numbers from yesterday were solid, and in fact pretty strong compared to the retail sector in general. They must be doing something right.


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## McLovin (10 January 2012)

They paid $610m for $77m EBITDA. And, and this is a big and, they bought it off a PE group. Based on what I've seen from companies sold by PE. I'm a touch skeptical. The update yesterday was OK, didn't look that exciting though, sales up margins down. The positive number was quantified, the negative number wasn't; surprise, surprise.

I went into a Rebel a few months ago to buy a squash racquet. I picked one up that had been discounted from ~$270 to ~$90. It took about 10 minutes to find a member of staff to get it for me (it was up high).


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## Tyler Durden (10 June 2013)

This article today brought my attention to SUL:



> US sports apparel juggernaut Under Armour has tagged Australia as a key growth market that will help fuel its energetic ambitions to double sales to $US4 billion by 2016, making it the latest in a growing invasion of overseas fashion retailers to hit our shores.
> 
> Under Armour CEO, founder and Forbes rich-lister Kevin Plank has told investors the international market represented the 17-year-old clothing company's biggest opportunity, with its maiden Australian store slated to open next year and the group also in talks with Rebel Sport to expand their strategic relationship.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/american-giant-plans-assault-20130609-2ny37.html

Given the history of the SP, this looks like a decent company.


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## ROE (10 June 2013)

Judging from rebel sale and clearance and promotion I think they may start to find it hard to grow earning
with Rebel sport now ...

Stuff too expensive and people can buy much cheaper from the net

I buy my stuff exclusive from www.wiggle.com.au Spent around $800 last year on that site...
you generally get them 30-50% cheaper .... and once you become a platinum member ..automatic 12% off ...
and they stocked some quality brands that rebel doesn't and half the price


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## Tyler Durden (27 July 2013)

I sold out of this yesterday. I have had concerns for a little while now, both with the global economy (constant money printing in the US, Detroit bankruptcy, slowdown of China) and with the national economy (unemployment appears to be on the rise), so wanted to load off my retail stocks at the right time. My decision was made easier when I read this yesterday:



> Australians are the developed world's most frequent online shoppers at international retailers, a global survey has found.
> 
> The shift towards online shopping came as more Australians chose to save rather than spend, the annual global survey of almost 30,000 consumers by the Boston Consulting Group found.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/australian-online-shoppers-go-global-20130726-2qoll.html


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## Tyler Durden (18 January 2014)

This closed 14% lower yesterday, and went as low as $9.50, as investors were disappointed with results and company downgraded sales forecasts.



> Australia's recreational speed boaters, campers and fishermen appear to have closed their Velcro wallets in the past six months and thus played havoc with the sales of this group's biggest supplier - Super Retail Group.
> 
> The company, which also owns sporting goods company Rebel, Supercheap Auto, BCF (Boating, Camping and Fishing), Ray's Outdoors and Workout World, has been operating in a parallel universe in the retail galaxy.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/camp...ds-life-no-picnic-of-late-20140117-310cp.html


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## ROE (7 November 2014)

I start loading up in the $6 dollar range, target 10,000 shares got half of my quota accumulate
then M&A rumor drive it crazy, better half than nothing


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## tinhat (24 February 2015)

I've never owned this stock. After a fairly large correction from $14 down to $7, and after a rebound, the chart is coming up as a buy on lots of technical analysis indicators on monthly, weekly and daily charts. From a FA point of view however, the business doesn't look like its heading in the right direction. I see that they are looking to concentrate on the leisure sector for future growth and they are looking to relaunch Rays Outdoors, are trialing different store formats, different house brand strategy and are planning on opening 50 new leisure stores. 

I've just had a very quick glance over the 2015 half year results presentation. I do like the level of straight-forward detail and analysis they have provided in presenting their financial performance.

Is anyone following this stock that has more background on where they think this business is going?


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## galumay (24 February 2015)

tinhat said:


> Is anyone following this stock that has more background on where they think this business is going?




I still think they are expensive, but I like the business mix, its a bit skewed towards discretionary spending obviously, so tight times in tight times so to speak! Management do seem to have a handle on the issues in the businesses and appear to have moved positively to address them. For mine the debt is high, ROE & ROC are not great, operating margins are ok for retail. Its one of those companies I look at occasionally, but it has never attracted me enough to buy.

The branding is an unquantified part of the business, all those names are well known, prominent and well patronised from what I see round the place. They do all have other strong brands in competition though, so margins unlikely to increase.


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## ROE (24 February 2015)

tinhat said:


> I've just had a very quick glance over the 2015 half year results presentation. I do like the level of straight-forward detail and analysis they have provided in presenting their financial performance.
> 
> Is anyone following this stock that has more background on where they think this business is going?




I like the straight talking too, very honest and straight shooter.

I am not big into details figure so I cant provide that I am more looking at the business and its product mix
and model and I like what I see so I just get on board.

This business can potential capture the camping, outdoor and sport market just like bunnings for hardware.

most of the stuff they sell technically not really discretionary (some where in between that and must have), most people has some sort of hobbies or leisure activities that these guys stocks good.

When you play soccer or basket ball or cricket you aren't going to skim on buying shoes and gears for them
nor fishing and camping and if you own a car, you going to buy the accessories and parts for them when you need them.

I am into most of this stuff so I can sort of understand the buyer mentality on their products

I Spent thousands on sport gears and outdoor activities because something I love doing and I just don't hold back on them where as I hold back in other area.


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## greggles (20 February 2018)

Super Retail Group punished this morning after releasing their half year results to 31 December 2017. SUL is currently down $1.30 to $6.90, a decline of around 16%.

I'm wondering if this might have been a bit of an over-reaction. Sales were $1.3 billion and net profit after tax was $72.2 million. The company also announced an interim dividend of 21.5c.

A largely flat result, no doubt, but I am surprised at the market reaction which was pretty harsh. The share price has now climbed back to $7 since I started this post, so maybe it will recover further this afternoon?


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## notting (20 February 2018)

There were higher expectations on growth and growth outlook, but looks like pretty fair price to me about here.
Bounced off this level in December 2014 so watch out if it breaks that in a sustained way.
Earnings reactions over the last few, and this, reporting season have tended to be over reactive and turned out to be opportunities. That could be due to excessive risk and leverage at this stage of the cycle.
Traditionally it's good to wait a few days to make sure the selling is over.


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## BlindSquirrel (7 January 2019)

They've been punished again lately. I bought a parcel at $7.60 and am tossing up whether to cut bait or buy the dip. The financials from last June were ok (profit ratios up, liquidity ok, cash flow fine), p/e multiple is on the lower end of historical average.
Why does the market dislike them? It's been in a steady downtrend since the SP fell off a cliff in October. Is it all due to the lack of a christmas rally?


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## bigdog (12 February 2019)

HIGH TODAY $8.54 AND LOW OF $7.72
FINISHED AT $7.84

M Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/12/why-the-super-retail-share-price-jumped-over-8-higher-today/


*Why the Super Retail share price jumped over 8% higher today*

The *Super Retail Group Ltd* (ASX: SUL) share price had been a strong performer in early trade on Tuesday following the release of a couple of key announcements.

In early trade the retail group’s shares were up over 8.5% to $8.54, but at the time of writing are now up just 2% to $8.01.

* What was announced? *
Starting with the negatives, this morning Super Retail advised that it will make back payments to retail managers after completing a comprehensive review of employment arrangements across the business.

The review identified an underpayment of overtime and some allowances to retail managers. As a result, Super Retail will recognise approximately $32 million pre-tax to cover the estimated cost of back payments to retail managers for the six financial years up to and including FY 2018.

In light of these serious underpayments, Super Retail’s managing director and chief executive officer, Peter Birtles, has offered to resign and the board has accepted. He will leave the company ahead of schedule on February 20 and be replaced by Anthony Heraghty. Mr Birtles was already due to retire in March and be replaced by Mr Heraghty.

On a normal day this news might have been enough to sink a share price, but fortunately for shareholders a positive trading update has offset this negative news.

According to the update, the company expects to report total sales of $1.4 billion in the first half, up 6% on the prior corresponding period. Unaudited EBITDA was $166.2 million during the half, up 11.3% on the prior corresponding period.

All segments delivered growth during the period. The Auto segment posted 2.5% EBIT growth, the Outdoor segment achieved 39.6% EBIT growth, and the Sports segment saw EBIT increase 5.2%.

A key driver of growth was its online operations. Management explained that it was “pleased to maintain strong growth in our online sales as we leveraged the re-platforming of all of our websites. Online sales, as a proportion of overall sales, increased in all businesses and for Rebel now represents 11 per cent of overall sales.”

Pleasingly, the overall strong form has continued so far in the second half with management advising that the majority of its businesses have delivered positive sales growth.

“Like for like sales growth has been circa 4 per cent in Supercheap Auto over the first six weeks of the second half. BCF has delivered circa 8 per cent like for like sales growth over the same period, while Macpac has been circa 2 per cent below pcp, as the business is cycling a significant clearance program in the prior comparative period. Like for like sales growth in Rebel has been 8 per cent over the six weeks.”


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## BlindSquirrel (12 February 2019)

I should have bought the dip...


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## BlindSquirrel (30 July 2019)

I reckon it might be getting near time to sell this one...


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## Dona Ferentes (29 March 2020)

_Super Retail told investors on Thursday that its Supercheap and Rebel stores had also recorded growth in sales this year. In the past five weeks alone, Supercheap’s sales grew 7.5 per cent.

The company’s Supercheap Auto and BCF stores hold all the essentials a doomsday prepper needs, while Rebel Sports has benefited from consumers loading up on home fitness gear as gyms shut down_.

- the SP has plummeted along with most 'discretionary retailers'; if the above is correct, then a fall from $9 to $4 in the last 6-8 weeks could be overdone?


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## rederob (29 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _Super Retail told investors on Thursday that its Supercheap and Rebel stores had also recorded growth in sales this year. In the past five weeks alone, Supercheap’s sales grew 7.5 per cent.
> 
> The company’s Supercheap Auto and BCF stores hold all the essentials a doomsday prepper needs, while Rebel Sports has benefited from consumers loading up on home fitness gear as gyms shut down_.
> 
> - the SP has plummeted along with most 'discretionary retailers'; if the above is correct, then a fall from $9 to $4 in the last 6-8 weeks could be overdone?



SUL has been on my watchlist for the last year.  Never grabbed it as I thought JBH was better, before it went ballistically high.
Anyhow, I am taking the simpleton's approach to investing.
Step one: is the share price *lower *than any time in the first quarter of 2009 (ie, 6 months post-Lehmans (GFC) collapse?
Step2: is the company materially ahead of its peers from a growth perspective since then?
Step 3: can the company quickly clear its debt burden to deliver positive cashflows?

Anything more than that hurts my brain!


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## over9k (7 May 2021)

So here's one that seems obvious in hindsight:






Chip shortage = new car shortage = used car (and thus used car maintenance) boom.

It formed a beautiful wedge & everything


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## systematic (7 May 2021)

over9k said:


> So here's one that seems obvious in hindsight:
> 
> View attachment 123900
> 
> ...




I bought before the crash   ~Oct 19...so am only up just over 20% on it. Will continue to hold for now


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## over9k (7 May 2021)

Yeah based on the basic chart I've drawn I'm not keen to buy now. The only question I have is how long this chip shortage is going to continue for (which is actually quite a while). 

Thing is, it's likely already been priced in as said chip shortage is well & truly yesterday's news now.


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## Ferret (8 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Chip shortage = new car shortage = used car (and thus used car maintenance) boom.



I think this is only part of the story.  I think the business is being boosted more by the overseas travel ban.

Their BCF, Rebel Sport & Macpac businesses will all be booming due to people spending holiday time in Australia.


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## over9k (8 May 2021)

Hmm not sure how much that'd be contributing ferret but it'd certainly be contributing something to it, yes


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## rederob (8 May 2021)

Ferret said:


> I think this is only part of the story.  I think the business is being boosted more by the overseas travel ban.
> 
> Their BCF, Rebel Sport & Macpac businesses will all be booming due to people spending holiday time in Australia.



COMMSEC rates it as a "buy" with a $15 target price.


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## sptrawler (8 May 2021)

Ferret said:


> I think this is only part of the story.  I think the business is being boosted more by the overseas travel ban.
> 
> Their BCF, Rebel Sport & Macpac businesses will all be booming due to people spending holiday time in Australia.



I'm with you on that Ferret.


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## BlindSquirrel (11 May 2021)

rederob said:


> COMMSEC rates it as a "buy" with a $15 target price.



They must be basing that on the Fib


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