# Where to invest in 2013?



## Ozier (20 December 2012)

Hello,
I want to know what is the best option to invest in 2013?


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 December 2012)

Ozier said:


> Hello,
> I want to know what is the best option to invest in 2013?




Cash under your bed.

gg


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## Joe Blow (20 December 2012)

Folks, just a reminder that it is not permitted for anyone to recommend any particular investment to anyone else.

However, opinions on areas of investment opportunity in 2013 are welcome, as long as some reasoning is also provided.


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## matty77 (20 December 2012)

I was also going to say under your bed.

BUT I cant recommend that strategy.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH ON WHAT TYPE OF BEDS, I take no responsibility.


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## young-gun (21 December 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Cash under your bed.
> 
> gg




I'm gonna go with gold under the bed. Will also recommend a latex mattress, best move I ever made. It's also a lot harder to move than a standard mattress, may deter potential thieves.


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## pixel (21 December 2012)

young-gun said:


> I'm gonna go with gold under the bed. Will also recommend a latex mattress, best move I ever made. It's also a lot harder to move than a standard mattress, may deter potential thieves.




a waterbed is even better. Apart from the obvious benefits in the "exercise" department, it really is an immovable object when it's full. Just be aware, you'll have to drain it to get at the loot under the mattress. But that should be done every now and then anyway.


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## ftw129 (21 December 2012)

pixel said:


> a waterbed is even better.




Waterbed? That's outrageous!

Haven't you seen the latest price increases in water? 

A nail bed is much more practical and a better deterrent.


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## pixel (21 December 2012)

ftw129 said:


> Waterbed? That's outrageous!
> 
> Haven't you seen the latest price increases in water?
> 
> A nail bed is much more practical and a better deterrent.




LMAO!
If you can afford gold bars to stash under your mattress, surely the water bill can be offset as a business insurance premium. Just make sure your gf doesn't wear stiletto heels in bed. And keep your toenails clipped


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## burglar (21 December 2012)

pixel said:


> LMAO!
> If you can afford gold bars to stash under your mattress, surely the water bill can be offset as a business insurance premium. Just make sure your gf doesn't wear stiletto heels in bed. And keep your toenails clipped




Hey! A little less jocularity. Cannot you see that the OP was asking a serious question?


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 December 2012)

burglar said:


> Hey! A little less jocularity. Cannot you see that the OP was asking a serious question?




For what it's worth.

Initially you need to look at charts and be in cash.

Stay in Cash until the (imminent) 2013 crash. ( Europe, Chinese Comrades, Commodities )

Then wait for a deep bar finishing at the highs on huge volume on the XAO.

Start buying at 3.49pm on this day, and continue until the market closes. Keep an eye on the bar, if it is falling to low, sell before close, and wait for the next bar ( day of bar as described above ).

The Europeans are resilient and need to wait for the Greeks plus or minus the Italians and Spanish to go **** up. Then they will recover.

The Chinese Comrades have a controlled economy and can cut wages or make money to keep the slave comrades working or spending.

Commodities will then recover.

So my advice is stay in cash. Log in to your broker at 3.30pm every day, and watch for the big, deep to low, bar closing high on huge volume on the XAO when the newspapers are predicting calamity.

Then go to Australian Shares.

gg


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## ParleVouFrancois (21 December 2012)

In my opinion the Australian shale gas/oil industry will boom in 2013. With LNG export projects sucking up all the available gas for energy projects and China still growing (and growing in demand for oil), I can see the entire sector at higher prices than today.


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## ENP (21 December 2012)

A membership to your local library. 

I'm constantly reading investment books.


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## PinguPingu (21 December 2012)

From this thread I can ascertain that _gold matresses_ are the best way to go.


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## white_goodman (21 December 2012)

try and beat everyone to the run for yield, especially when the alleged fiscal cliff doesnt happen, and before divvies start getting paid out


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## cynic (22 December 2012)

PinguPingu said:


> From this thread I can ascertain that _gold matresses_ are the best way to go.




Maybe not. I've heard that some disreputable manchester salespeople have been selling tungsten mattresses to unsuspecting customers.


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## ROE (22 December 2012)

Ozier said:


> Hello,
> I want to know what is the best option to invest in 2013?




Most people here cant give you advice plus when you ask a question 
that has endless possibilities you get the sort of reply you get 

be more specific and if you starting out, education is a good first step and work out what is it you
want to do? buy and hold for dividend? trading? derivatives? technical? fundamental etc....

the market will always be here and will be here when you long gone so you got plenty of time...

If everyone know what is the best place to put their money into for next year we all be millionaires.


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## DocK (22 December 2012)

ROE said:


> Most people here cant give you advice plus when you ask a question
> that has endless possibilities you get the sort of reply you get
> 
> be more specific and if you starting out, education is a good first step and work out what is it you
> ...




Nail hit squarely on head - as usual ROE 

At least an idea of goals (growth/income) or timeframe would have prompted a few more serious replies.  Maybe... 'tis the Silly Season after all...


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## tech/a (22 December 2012)

ROE said:


> Most people here cant give you advice plus when you ask a question
> that has endless possibilities you get the sort of reply you get
> 
> be more specific and if you starting out, education is a good first step and work out what is it you
> ...




To add
*I think reduction of debt is a good start.*
Inflation will return and when it does it
Will bite hard.

Learn how to profit in markets which are bearish or ranging.
Gear yourself so hat when opportunity does become obvious
You'll be able to take advantage of it.

This s a rare time of pause---don't waste it!


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## young-gun (22 December 2012)

tech/a said:


> To add
> *I think reduction of debt is a good start.*
> Inflation will return and when it does it
> Will bite hard.
> ...




Tech, you have mentioned your thoughts of fast raising inflation a couple of times now, any chance you could elaborate as to why? After all thigns are slowing down, and we haven't embarked on any printing or stimulus for some time now. What makes you think inflation is going to be an issue in the next 4-5 years I think you said?

If anything I would think that we are in for a small bout of deflation before anything like that will begin to occur.


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## robusta (22 December 2012)

young-gun said:


> Tech, you have mentioned your thoughts of fast raising inflation a couple of times now, any chance you could elaborate as to why? After all thigns are slowing down, and we haven't embarked on any printing or stimulus for some time now. What makes you think inflation is going to be an issue in the next 4-5 years I think you said?
> 
> If anything I would think that we are in for a small bout of deflation before anything like that will begin to occur.




Just my opinion but the Yanks, Japanese and Europeans are printing money like crazy, all that money once the fear is over has to come rushing out pushing up inflation worldwide.

Invest in businesses that have pricing power and can ride it out.


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## young-gun (22 December 2012)

robusta said:


> Just my opinion but the Yanks, Japanese and Europeans are printing money like crazy, all that money once the fear is over has to come rushing out pushing up inflation worldwide.
> 
> Invest in businesses that have pricing power and can ride it out.




I thought the same thing not so long ago. However the yanks have been printing for years now, and in HUGE amounts, and yet the ramifications have almost been non-existent. The Europeans would have to print trillions and trillions to offset their deflationary issues, and have the Japanese confirmed they are definitely going to embark on a similar path of printing?

I think that all this printing SHOULD cause inflation, but perhaps the deflation everyone is printing against is simply too strong for the time being, and it may be a decade or two before we start to see genuine growth take over.

You would think that 'somethings gotta give' at some point.


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## McLovin (22 December 2012)

robusta said:


> Just my opinion but the Yanks, Japanese and Europeans are printing money like crazy, all that money once the fear is over has to come rushing out pushing up inflation worldwide.
> 
> Invest in businesses that have pricing power and can ride it out.




They'll just sell the long dated debt on their balance sheet soaking up the excess cash (and destroying it) they printed to buy the debt in the first place. At least that's why inflation isn't a problem, because there's an expectation that will happen.


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## robusta (22 December 2012)

McLovin said:


> They'll just sell the long dated debt on their balance sheet soaking up the excess cash (and destroying it) they printed to buy the debt in the first place. At least that's why inflation isn't a problem, because there's an expectation that will happen.




And when the bonds that are paying a negative real return are no longer popular where will that cash go?


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## Bill M (22 December 2012)

My guess is that when people start reallocating their super into the balanced or growth sectors then that money will head for the sharemarket and that may help sustain higher prices. However, for the conservative and older Australians I think that residential real estate will still be their first choice. There are a lot of people out there who will never touch the sharemarket again.


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## kincella (22 December 2012)

interesting...
some debt is good debt, (against an asset that increases over time, or with inflation, for eg; land)  

other debt is bad debt (for example car loans, against a deflationary asset) cars decrease in value the moment you drive it out of the car yard 

if you are expecting inflation, then if the debt is held against an asset that will gain in an inflationary period, then you are in the box seat....

the debt cannot be inflated....eg a loan of xxxx amount, remains at xxxx

it is the money that is paying off the loan that is deflating

but at the same time, the land value will inflate....

so some debt is good to hold, to hang onto during an inflationary period....

there are so many articles, about people avoiding debt, paying it down in the past 5 years, and now they are hoarding cash.....they will not keep hoarding, they will get tired and move soon....if they have not already
I suspect many have moved some of the cash back into assets of choice

the shenanigans and games in the stock market, would have driven a good many people away
they will not return, not unless and until, it becomes a more level playing field again...which is doubtful
so where will they park their cash...?


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## Miner (22 December 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Cash under your bed.
> 
> gg




Hi GG 
Greetings for a festive season and HNY.
Returning to thread as Joe said you need to support your recommendation so please provide more details.
Why under bed ? Have you provided disclaimer that provided there is no bed bugs, cockraches or white ants to eat the cash ??


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 December 2012)

Miner said:


> Hi GG
> Greetings for a festive season and HNY.
> Returning to thread as Joe said you need to support your recommendation so please provide more details.
> Why under bed ? Have you provided disclaimer that provided there is no bed bugs, cockraches or white ants to eat the cash ??




Thanks Miner, you are a gentleman probably, unless you are a lady, sorry you know what I mean. I have to be careful as the Canberra Handbags are setting me up for the first "Insult" test case when the DepNoIns is set up.

I would advise this young person to stay in cash.

In an above post 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25894&p=742881&viewfull=1#post742881

I recommended to he or she, what to do, on that fine day next year, 2013, when the markets go to crap. Either on that day, or some time after will be the time to turn cash in to Australian shares. Then sit back and watch a wave three with oneself sitting upon it.

More importantly coming to your last point, I have no idea in what squalid conditions this young person lives or exists. 

Empty dorito packs, nuts, condoms, KFC, male or female pollsters, or both, bed bugs, long lost AWU documents, the complete judicial decisions of Justice Rares, more bed bugs, cockroaches or white ants may all lurk in or under his bed.

Assuming the worst case scenario, that all of the above are present, I consulted my resident expert on all things to do with Australian Cash, a good friend at Securency and Note Printing Australia (NPA), presently expecting a term in the slammer for bribery. He assures me that our good Aussie notes are resistant to all of the above, and would survive.

As to whether under the mattress or in the bed is a root point, sorry moot point. Under I would suggest is safer. One never knows these days who is a crook and who is honest. Just look at NSW ICAC.

gg


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## oldorman (22 December 2012)

Yeah I think you need to play the charts just as you see them. Buy low, sell high will always be a good strategy with equities that have sound fundamentals behind them.

I'm also considering some govt bonds in case it all turns to poo.

 GOLD hmm you know I still think the charts look top heavy and would like to see a 50% retracement off the OCT2008 lows. $1300 would be a great buy if it gets there. The thing is everyone is so pro gold that a massive crash is imminent before it takes off to new highs.......

And yeah under the mattress for when/if the banks don't open their doors one unsuspecting day .


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## McLovin (22 December 2012)

robusta said:


> And when the bonds that are paying a negative real return are no longer popular where will that cash go?




Equities, commodities etc. The same places it's going now.


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## tech/a (23 December 2012)

young-gun said:


> Tech, you have mentioned your thoughts of fast raising inflation a couple of times now, any chance you could elaborate as to why? After all thigns are slowing down, and we haven't embarked on any printing or stimulus for some time now. What makes you think inflation is going to be an issue in the next 4-5 years I think you said?
> 
> If anything I would think that we are in for a small bout of deflation before anything like that will begin to occur.




This could have a thread of its own.
Im sure many of the fundies here would love to get stuck into this topic.


But here is my view.
I think its* inevitable* --- exactly when I cant be sure.
But* for growth to re appear* --- and one day it will--there will need to be inflation.

Inflation creates demand.
Wages rise
Employment rises
Spending rise
Businesses proper ( Im talking mild Inflation not Hyper)
More taxation is collected
Held debt decreases in value.
Held asset generally increases in value.

But like everything I think it will initially over shoot before being controlled.
It wont be a time to be holding cash as it will de value.
If you can handle the increased interest (I can see up to 12 % or so) on debt then it maybe worth holding property asset or trading the bull run on margin.
If you cant then now is the time to diminish debt.


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## dombat (23 December 2012)

It is the first and probably the last time I believe that you tech are wrong .... have you really considered the implications of the demographics?  I can see outragous inflation in health, energy and food - but not traditional asset classes such as real estate - as you know japan printed and printed but still could not stop deflation - europe will certainly feel it and I just can't see inflation happening there beyond basic essentials for the next 25 years.  The western world I believe will struggle with low growth and meagre returns for a long long time.


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## tech/a (23 December 2012)

dombat said:


> It is the first and probably the last time I believe that you tech are wrong .... have you really considered the implications of the demographics?  I can see outragous inflation in health, energy and food - but not traditional asset classes such as real estate - as you know japan printed and printed but still could not stop deflation - europe will certainly feel it and I just can't see inflation happening there beyond basic essentials for the next 25 years.  The western world I believe will struggle with low growth and meagre returns for a long long time.




Look you could be right.

And if you are then we are in for some very tough times indeed.


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## explod (23 December 2012)

dombat said:


> It is the first and probably the last time I believe that you tech are wrong .... have you really considered the implications of the demographics?  I can see outragous inflation in health, energy and food - but not traditional asset classes such as real estate - as you know japan printed and printed but still could not stop deflation - europe will certainly feel it and I just can't see inflation happening there beyond basic essentials for the next 25 years.  The western world I believe will struggle with low growth and meagre returns for a long long time.




Agree dombat, your view is what I see also.

At any time soon in my view the markets are going to take a belting that will make 2008 look like child's play.

If we look at the Dow over the last 15 years, each of the recoveries have been by some form of stimulus.  That no longer seem to be working for the US and yes Japan the last 20 odd years is a good case in point too.  In fact if someone would trot a chart out on the Dow there would be some support at 4000 but more likely to overshoot to 2000.  Now just have a think of what that may do to all stocks, gold stocks with them.  And it would happen US time before our markets open so the system here would jam almost before you could hit the sell button.

This is why I stepped right out of trading and all of my investment moneys are in physical silver (mostly coins) in the hand.


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## young-gun (23 December 2012)

explod said:


> Agree dombat, your view is what I see also.
> 
> At any time soon in my view the markets are going to take a belting that will make 2008 look like child's play.
> 
> ...




just out of curiosity explod, are you talking about limited edition type coins printed by the perth mint for example, or junk silver like 56 rounds or other types out of the US? Do you not buy bars at all?

I can understand why you are going coins, just surprised that they are(judging from above) the majority of silver you hold.


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## explod (24 December 2012)

young-gun said:


> just out of curiosity explod, are you talking about limited edition type coins printed by the perth mint for example, or junk silver like 56 rounds or other types out of the US? Do you not buy bars at all?
> 
> I can understand why you are going coins, just surprised that they are(judging from above) the majority of silver you hold.




I do have some bars one at 5 kilo.  One ounce pure silver I like best, some eagles etc., but yes a good swath of 1966 rounds too.  At the end of the day it is the silver content that counts for me so don't' buy Perth Mint stuff, walking the dealers has been my best way of accumulating closer to spot.


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## Tyler Durden (25 December 2012)

Bullet proof backpacks:



> Elmar Uy thought his software was acting up when he first saw the huge jump in sales of bulletproof backpacks two weeks ago. He checked the figures and discovered the website's traffic had jumped tenfold.
> 
> Then he turned on CNN, and it made sense.
> 
> ...




http://www.theage.com.au/world/sales-of-bulletproof-school-bags-soar-20121224-2bul0.html

Can't seem to find an Australian company that does something similar though (I know gun control is not an issue in Australia, but it could easily export to USA).


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## tech/a (25 December 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> Bullet proof backpacks:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thats great thinking
Ill be the Chinese have it covered


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## PinguPingu (25 December 2012)

explod said:


> I do have some bars one at 5 kilo.  One ounce pure silver I like best, some eagles etc., but yes a good swath of 1966 rounds too.  At the end of the day it is the silver content that counts for me so don't' buy Perth Mint stuff, walking the dealers has been my best way of accumulating closer to spot.





Family has been collecting some very nice silver coins over the generations, quite a few European mixes with some..err.. interesting German pieces, and some very old Swiss stuff. No idea on valuation but I don't think we could actually bring ourselves to sell them.


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