# The Simple Weekly Income system



## So_Cynical (8 January 2013)

In need of a simple system to take advantage of my talent for stock picking and entry timing, i have decided to paper trade (test) a weekly system using discretionary stock picks and a fixed total investment starting point, and some weekly rules that are not set in stone just yet.

*The Basics*

 100K starting money that will not be added to from outside the account.
 All buy orders will be for $2000+ rounded up to the nearest even number ending in 0
 All dividends will be reinvested (not DRP)
 Broker will be NAB trade with $14.95 brokerage and 4.25% p.a interest.
 Will be withdrawing 1K per month after 90 weeks, every month while the account balance is over 104K, with the minimum balance rising by 3K every new year.

*The Trade Rules*

 1 Trade (entry or exit) per week as long as system and funds permit.
 Dividends and credits not included in winning and losing % calculations.
 Maximum of 2 parcels per ASX stock.
 First 39 parcels (weeks) will be buying only.
 Week 40 will see the biggest (trade %) loser sold, repeating every 10 weeks (loser must be at least 20 weeks old)
 At week 42 and every 2 weeks following i will sell the 4th or 5th biggest winning Parcel as long as the selection is in profit by at least 12% and not within 5 weeks of an approaching or past ex div date.

My goal is to create an account that will live on in perpetuity and give me an income of 1K per Month, every month in perpetuity...comments and suggestions more than welcome. 

-------

Trade #1  

 PRG - Programmed Maintenance
 1070 Shares @ $1.86
 Week 1 - 08/01/2013


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## Vixs (8 January 2013)

I'll watch with interest. Your exit criteria look very unforgiving - any plans for dealing with a market rout with that system?


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## skc (8 January 2013)

Good you are paper testing this. I fail to understand how the week-based rules relate to your return objectives.

With $14.95 per trade and $2k parcels, you are looking at a fee of 1.5% round trip. You are only targeting 12% total return so spending 1.5% on brokerage seems like a heavy burden.

The first suggestion I'd have is to at least double your parcel size. 

The second suggestion is to allow a quicker build up of the portfolio. What's the point of earning 4.5% interest if there are good cheap shares to buy next month? If you must have a hard limit make it 15 trades a month or something at least.

Lastly, there should be a manual override / kill switch - whatever the criteria is.

Good luck anyway. It's always good to play around with new strategies.


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## tech/a (9 January 2013)

Firstly I presume you dont have a history to refer back to on performance.
The rules are best intended.

The Trade Rules

•1 Trade (entry or exit) per week as long as system and funds permit.

Bit confused does this read either a trade or a sale will take place not both? 
If a screaming buy comes up or the market falls 200 pts? what do you do then?

•Dividends and credits not included in winning and losing % calculations.


Why?

•Maximum of 2 parcels per ASX stock.

Ok

•First 39 parcels (weeks) will be buying only.

Ok

•Week 40 will see the biggest (trade %) loser sold, repeating every 10 weeks (loser must be at least 20 weeks old)

so after 50 weeks there will be atleast 40 trades 50 weeks old. your not cutting losers.

•At week 42 and every 2 weeks following i will sell the 4th or 5th biggest winning Parcel as long as the selection is in profit by at least 12% and not within 5 weeks of an approaching or past ex div date

Yet you will sell winners at a ration of 5:1

Fine in bull runs.
I hope you get one.
So at 1000/ mth thats 12% a year.
I doubt youll get close but will watch with great interest.
Are you going to report your profit as closed only trades OR inclusive of open trades. Big difference.


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## sinner (9 January 2013)

If the real goal is "income" i.e. "withdraw 1K per month from the account" then you should definitely examine the Safe Withdrawal Rate

http://gestaltu.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/youre-looking-at-wrong-number.html


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## tech/a (9 January 2013)

sinner said:


> If the real goal is "income" i.e. "withdraw 1K per month from the account" then you should definitely examine the Safe Withdrawal Rate
> 
> http://gestaltu.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/youre-looking-at-wrong-number.html




Handy thanks sinner.


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## Trembling Hand (9 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> In need of a simple system to take advantage of my talent for stock picking and entry timing, i have decided to paper trade (test) a weekly system using discretionary stock picks and a fixed total investment starting point, and some weekly rules that are not set in stone just yet.




Will it not take about 5 years to validate a once a week system you are forward testing.


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## So_Cynical (9 January 2013)

A few general answers to comments and inquiries.

I spent a lot of time over Xmas thinking about my future and decided i needed to come up with a rules based system that was scalable, a system that could deliver a reasonable return by taking advantage of my stock picking and timing ability's while eliminating some of the extremes of my current strategy..some strict money rules are required to do this.

One trade only per week, either a buy or sell but never both and only if rules and funds allow, if the cash component of the portfolio isn't above the minimum 2K required to buy a parcel then no buy will happen for that week.

5 losers will be cut per year, the biggest losers, so that's a big chunk of the losing trades culled, its mechanical and will be somewhat brutal and some of the losses may be substantial in % terms but due to the smaller parcel size wont hurt the overall portfolio to much. 

This testing process will be 100% transparent, updated in real time (EOD) ok cos its weekly anyway...for me this system will work or not work based on my ability's to pick stocks at the right time, if there are obvious flaws then im open to rule changes to help correct that, in the end i would like to trade a system like this with confidence in it working.

--------------

To retire early, i need a system that can get me 1K per month from a 100K (closed) portfolio (12%)...a system that's scalable and reliable, a system that grows to accommodate inflation.


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## tech/a (9 January 2013)

*if there are obvious flaws then im open to rule changes to help correct that,*

If your long only So C
The biggest flaw I see is the overall world market.
I cant see a way around it for you.
Other than ignore it---which most do.
Could decimate a portfolio---in fact a capital base.
If that was a crucial part of funding retirement it could
be a disaster!! 

But for *the purpose* of the exercise Id like to see it ignored so you are left to 
see how it goes.
Just be aware that the yanks are in the background with a Meteor aimed at your portfolio.


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## sydboy007 (10 January 2013)

I can see the benefit of giving yourself some rules to keep emotions out of the buy and sell, but a bad trade is a bad trade.

Golden rule - don't let your purchase price become an anchor.  A bad trade can turn into the gamblers I've got to win my money back.

There is a huge opportunity cost for holding onto a stock that wont go anywhere for an extended period, especially if there's some undervalued shares you could move across to.

having said that, I still feel like banging my head against the wall after buying AAC last year, sitting on the loss for as long as I could bare, only to see the shares jump back up to near my purchase price less than a month later.

Just console myself with the big rewards from M2 that could use up the capital loss from that trade.


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## RandR (10 January 2013)

I just can't see the sense in this So Cynical, you say your strength is timing and picking the right stock as a discretional investor, yet your trying to come up with a whole bunch of largely unecessary rules that could only hinder your ability to do so surely. The rules have an element of 'randomness' to them... Surely restricting yourself in terms of when and how much you can purchase is going to absolutely remove any ability you have to actually time things?


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## So_Cynical (10 January 2013)

RandR said:


> I just can't see the sense in this So Cynical, you say your strength is timing and picking the right stock as a discretional investor, yet your trying to come up with a whole bunch of largely unnecessary rules that could only hinder your ability to do so surely. The rules have an element of 'randomness' to them... Surely restricting yourself in terms of when and how much you can purchase is going to absolutely remove any ability you have to actually time things?




Ill try and explain my thinking on some of the rules and why i think they are necessary and how they will help the system.

_1 Trade (entry or exit) per week as long as system and funds permit._...every week i see stocks that i think are good buying 'in the buy zone' so a weekly system would make sure i have the opportunity to buy something almost every week...and would smooth out bull runs and sell off's...buying bottoms and tops.

_5 losers will be cut per year, the biggest losers, 1 every 10 weeks._...i need a mechanical way to cut the biggest losers because im just not good at doing that, and it really needs to be done even though some will turn around.

_Maximum of 2 parcels per ASX stock._ ..this allows me to take only 1 average down and since the system is parcel based, will also allow me to sell the biggest losing parcel in a stock with 2 parcels that has gone against me.

Note to self...i need a 'do not re-enter' rule on losers, perhaps? i mean after 1 parcel has been sold for a loss.



sydboy007 said:


> Golden rule - don't let your purchase price become an anchor.  A bad trade can turn into the gamblers I've got to win my money back.
> 
> There is a huge opportunity cost for holding onto a stock that wont go anywhere for an extended period, especially if there's some undervalued shares you could move across to.




In general i have no problem with the gambling aspect of what i do, its calculated, form based gambling with time as an advantage, wanting to get your money back is a good thing and should be encouraged...opportunity cost is something that's real but cant be calculated so i try and not let that influence my thinking to much.


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## tech/a (10 January 2013)

> Maximum of 2 parcels per ASX stock. ..this allows me to take only 1 average down and since the system is parcel based, will also allow me to sell the biggest losing parcel in a stock with 2 parcels that has gone against me.
> 
> Note to self...i need a 'do not re-enter' rule on losers, perhaps? i mean after 1 parcel has been sold for a loss.




This is another aspect of this style of trading I just cant get my head around.

Why on earth dont you buy on a pull back during a sustained up trend say on your biggest winner or so?

If you take an early loss why then dont you alter your mantra to.
"note to self---Look for new buying opportunity if stock turns in the direction I first anticipated"

Just seems Arrsed about to me.


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## So_Cynical (10 January 2013)

tech/a said:


> This is another aspect of this style of trading I just cant get my head around.
> 
> Why on earth dont you *buy on a pull back during a sustained up trend* say on your biggest winner or so?




I'm not for a minute saying i wont, i have done it a few times in my real Portfolio (PFL, ALZ, SND, CLV) and with this test system having so many stocks, i would expect to take an average down one week and an average up the next week..no big deal just no more than 2 parcels per stock (single stock risk/no stops)




tech/a said:


> If you take an early loss why then dont you alter your mantra to.
> "note to self---Look for new buying opportunity if stock turns in the direction I first anticipated"
> 
> Just seems Arrsed about to me.




Note to tech / your a technical trend follower, everything other than technical trend following looks arrsed about to you. 

I'm only selling the biggest losers and only after they have had a bit of time to (20 weeks min) move , assuming that the winners will out number the losers by 4 or 5 to 1 as per my experience.


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## tech/a (11 January 2013)

So C

You now have me interested.

How are you going to profit without trend ( price increasing above previous price )

80 % winners after a 20 week hold period
Now that's a trend!!


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## peter2 (11 January 2013)

The concepts that I like in these plans are that you know what you do well and are determined to continue doing it. You also understand what you do poorly and want to improve. 

I think a simple rule based approach will help you so long as they don't restrict you. One entry per week seems a little restrictive to me. How about altering your condition to an average of 1-2 per week. This would allow you to buy 3 over two weeks. 

There are times to buy and times to sell. You've heard the phrase, "Sell in May and go away, but remember to buy in November".  A bit simplistic, but does remind one of the market cycles.


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## CanOz (11 January 2013)

peter2 said:


> There are times to buy and times to sell. You've heard the phrase, "Sell in May and go away, but remember to buy in November".  A bit simplistic, but does remind one of the market cycles.




Exactly, just be consistent with something that works most of the time...my Super gets re-balanced in November, again in April...

CanOz


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## So_Cynical (16 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #1
> 
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> ...




Trade #2 


 AAC - Australian Agricultural Company
 1740 Shares @ $1.14
 Week 2 - 15/01/2013


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## So_Cynical (23 January 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #1
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> 1070 Shares @ $1.86
> ...




Trade #3  

 UGL - UGL LIMITED
 190 Shares @ $11.01
 Week 3 - 23/01/2013

-------

So far so good, open profit of 3.08%


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## tinhat (23 January 2013)

Goal. 12% annual return per annum on $100k investment. You could have bought TLS a year ago and you would be getting 12% return with franking credits. But the river moves on... My point is that dividends are a wonderful thing for people looking for income. There are still some little gems out there that are still yielding well. I would have a serious think about allocating some of that capital to long term holdings in dividend paying stocks.


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## So_Cynical (23 January 2013)

tinhat said:


> Goal. 12% annual return per annum on $100k investment. You could have bought TLS a year ago and you would be getting 12% return with franking credits. But the river moves on...




This is my post in the Telstra thread in Sept 2010 when TLS was trading at under $2.90



So_Cynical said:


> (27th-September-2010) no *im suggesting that the positive upside of the NBN deal isn't priced in appropriately*, without a doubt the uncertainty is priced in, perhaps over priced in....its a sideways bear market and ive found that what happens is that the uncertainty and negativity is always over priced in and tends to dominate.
> 
> Interesting to also note that Telstra's total revenue at the time of the T1 float (1997) was 16 billion, in 2001 it was 23 billion, this years total sales revenue is 24 billion...so for a company that's had its core business smashed over the last 13 years and had belligerent management and faced massive technical and logistical hurdles and ridiculous expectations from the bulk of its customer base...*big picture its not doing that badly*.
> 
> *Worth serious consideration at these prices IMO*.




Now if i had money at the time i would of brought some TLS, but i didn't have any money because i was stuck in 6 or 7 trades...and that experience has lead me to this thread and experiment because with this weekly system i would of had the money to buy TLS at under $2.90.

That's my point...and the guts of this strategy.


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## tinhat (24 January 2013)

> Dividends and credits not included in winning and losing % calculations.




Sounds to me like you are aiming for a capital gain through trading approach with dividends a secondary concern? Do you have any rules about dividend yield in picking your stocks?

It also looks to me like you are trying to pick the bottom on the stock you have chosen so far.

My most recent approach has been two-fold. One concentrate mainly on stocks with prospects for a long term dividend yield should they end up in the portfolio for the long term (eg TLS, CBA, ANZ, WBC, GZL, TGA, RCG) although this is not my only criteria - eg, entries and exits into FGE.

Only buy in when there is momentum. I have some buy signals now that I look for on the daily, weekly and I am also using the coppock on the monthly to confirm that the stock sentiment is on the up. I'm still mainly looking at moving average indicators but I'm still reading up on volume spread analysis and starting to grock it a bit. I wouldn't get in as early as you do because for me those two stocks you have chosen are still in downtrend. Set stop losses based on my eyeballs or a simple 15%. This worked for me nicely with BOL and has worked nicely for me with FGE and DCG. One thing that it has taken me a while to get onto is not buying in until the stock is in uptrend to try and avoid getting stopped out early like I did last year when I bought FGE for $4.15 and got stopped out 15% lower to now see it above $5.

As someone who only started actively investing in stocks a couple of years ago and who has been through a fair bit of pain myself I will be reading this thread with interest. Best wishes.

A few stocks on my short list that may be of interest are LCM, SOM, CYG.


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## So_Cynical (1 February 2013)

tinhat said:


> It also looks to me like you are trying to pick the bottom on the stock you have chosen so far.




Buy em cheap every week is the name of this game.



So_Cynical said:


> Trade #1
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> 1070 Shares @ $1.86
> ...




Trade #4 

 APK - Australian Power & Gas
 4700 Shares @ $0.425
 Week 4 - 31/01/2013


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## So_Cynical (4 February 2013)

> Trade #1
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> 1070 Shares @ $1.86
> ...




Trade #5 

 SLX - Silex Systems
 630 Shares @ $3.20
 Week 5 - 04/02/2013


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## So_Cynical (15 February 2013)

> Trade #1
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> 1070 Shares @ $1.86
> ...




Trade #6

 SAI- SAI Global
 540 Shares @ $3.75
 Week 6 - 14/02/2013


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## So_Cynical (18 February 2013)

> Trade #1
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> 1070 Shares @ $1.86
> ...




Trade #7 

 BSA - BSA Limited
 10530 Shares @ $0.19
 Week 7 - 18/02/2013

While i realise the market is having a run and making my results look ok, i have to say im finding the simple task of selecting the cheapest stock each week a rewarding challenge...2K is a small position size and i reckon the fact that im under thinking my selections is helping.

Not a lot of second guessing myself partly because im thinking, oh ill get a chance to buy that other stock next week...and mostly that's working out, only 2 that have got away from me so far.
~


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## Skatter (18 February 2013)

nice work!


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## So_Cynical (1 March 2013)

> Trade #1
> 
> PRG - Programmed Maintenance
> 1070 Shares @ $1.86
> ...




Trade #8

 RIC - Ridley Corp
 1840 Shares @ $1.09
 Week 8 - 1/03/2013


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## chops_a_must (1 March 2013)

Good on you for making these trades public.

A couple of thoughts:

I'd like to know more about your selection criteria.

If you aren't going to back test or pick entries based on patterns, do you at least have some basic stats to guide your entries?

Your hold lengths mean your buys could wipe out your capital easily if you're bottom picking.

With these hold lengths, I'd be inclined to trade breakouts, and cut your loss making stocks much earlier.

If you are going to hold these lengths, what is your universe of stocks? I'd bias the high end and dividend payers.

I also don't think you're outperforming the market by that much.

I also don't like the one buy a week strategy. 

But, who knows?


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## So_Cynical (1 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Good on you for making these trades public.
> 
> A couple of thoughts:
> 
> ...




I encourage everyone to *READ THE FIRST POST* in this thread, this is a paper trading test (WIP) of a low capital outlay weekly system...thanks for your input chops but im not trend following or cutting my losses early or looking for break outs...ill leave that to the punters that pursue those strategies.

I'm testing a simple weekly system looking to build on my stock picking and bottom picking skills, doing it now to see if it works over all market conditions....you cant back test discretion.


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## chops_a_must (1 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> I encourage everyone to *READ THE FIRST POST* in this thread, this is a paper trading test (WIP) of a low capital outlay weekly system...thanks for your input chops but im not trend following or cutting my losses early or looking for break outs...ill leave that to the punters that pursue those strategies.
> 
> I'm testing a simple weekly system looking to build on my stock picking and bottom picking skills, doing it now to see if it works over all market conditions....you cant back test discretion.




I did. And did again. And now confused. 

A lot of these things seem confusing. Are you investing or trading?

And if you aren't looking for dividends, and not looking for trends, how are you intending to get a return?

To me, it sounds like it's a system to get entries to invest. Without actually saying that. And for that there is no back test.

Not doubting it will work, if you select well, but you haven't explained the criteria, or the system well enough for you to do justice to this system.

Maybe you could explain the rationale behind your future entries to help bring this out?


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## tinhat (2 March 2013)

So_Cynical, I would be interested to hear more about your bottom picking technical analysis if you are willing to share or give a little primer.


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## RandR (2 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> I did. And did again. And now confused.
> 
> A lot of these things seem confusing. Are you investing or trading?
> 
> ...




The thing I dont understand is how he will outperform the asx 200 by any meaningful amount with so many stocks to be held in his portfolio. Forget how he is entering positions. I just cant imagine how a portfolio of 40 plus positions is going to be concentrated enough to see outperformance.


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## tech/a (2 March 2013)

There are many problems with this method.

Firstly it's an idea which is being forward tested here.

The biggest flaw is virtually no consideration for capital depreciation.
The culling idea is far far too slow.
Any shock move or sustained reversal of this market will crucify the holdings
Not only that but falls in price will see yields also fall.

As has been pointed out in this parabolic uptrend there is no real out performance.

It very much reminds me of Ducati's method which ran for 2 yrs and failed dramatically.
So C is putting his ideas on the chopping block and for the exercise and the comments ---positive and negative--- should continue to validate or negate all " theories" So Cynicals--- mine and everybody else's.

So although I'm not a supporter of So Cynicals method I applaud his presentation,


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## nulla nulla (2 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> I encourage everyone to *READ THE FIRST POST* in this thread, this is a paper trading test (WIP) of a low capital outlay weekly system...thanks for your input chops but im not trend following or cutting my losses early or looking for break outs...ill leave that to the punters that pursue those strategies.
> 
> I'm testing a simple weekly system looking to build on my stock picking and bottom picking skills, doing it now to see if it works over all market conditions....you cant back test discretion.




Putting up his evidence of his "paper trading" system as it goes forward is probably the most honest display of someone testing their investment ideas we will ever see. At least here we will see what works and what doesn't and there won't be any suggestions of "after the event" successful stock picking.


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## So_Cynical (2 March 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> I did. And did again. And now confused.
> 
> A lot of these things seem confusing. Are you investing or trading?




Travesting 



chops_a_must said:


> And if you aren't looking for dividends, and not looking for trends, how are you intending to get a return?




I'm not using dividends as a selection criteria though understand that there will be some dividends and distributions, the system will out perform (get a return) via my stock/bottom picking ability's and the forced closing of trades.



chops_a_must said:


> Not doubting it will work, if you select well, but you haven't explained the criteria, or the system well enough for you to do justice to this system.
> 
> Maybe you could explain the rationale behind your future entries to help bring this out?




Simply buying stocks that i like when i think they are cheap enough...i have 200 stocks in watch lists and select the 1 that looks to be cheapest, not necessarily the one that has fallen the most that week.

-----------------------



tinhat said:


> So_Cynical, I would be interested to hear more about your bottom picking technical analysis if you are willing to share or give a little primer.




Bottom picking technical analysis  BPTA -  i look at long term charts and short term charts, 10, 5, 2 and 1 years...looking for factors to explain the significant SP moves, i read over some of the Annual reports, look over the announcements year by year looking for cap raisings and take overs and acquisitions etc, anything that is price sensitive.

I do 'form' based Travesting so use all relevant macro information available to come up with a judgement of the cheapness of a stock, i then tie that into my general macro world view and make a decision to buy or continue watching...some stocks i know well, some stocks i don't.  

----------------------



RandR said:


> The thing I dont understand is how he will outperform the asx 200 by any meaningful amount with so many stocks to be held in his portfolio. Forget how he is entering positions. I just cant imagine how a portfolio of 40 plus positions is going to be concentrated enough to see outperformance.




Good points.

What's a meaningful amount? i would hope to be outperforming the index by at least 20% and lets use the All Ords as a benchmark...40 stocks is a 2 edged sword, diversified enough to get an opportunity advantage and not concentrated enough to be hammered by big changes in sector sentiment...but of course will be hammered by, or advantaged by any larger swings in general sentiment.

-----------------------

Starting point 8th Jan 2013 ~ All Ords  = 4730.30 / SWIS - Simple Weekly Income Sys  = $100000

All Ords now 5100.90 up 7.46% / SWIS = $101300 up 1.3%


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## So_Cynical (7 March 2013)

> Trade #1 ~ PRG - Programmed Maintenance, 1070 Shares @ $1.86 ~ Week 1 - 08/01/2013
> 
> Trade #2 ~ AAC - Aust Agricultural Co, 1750 Shares @ $1.14 ~ Week 2 - 15/01/2013
> 
> ...





Trade #9 

 IAW - ILH Group
 21050 Shares @ $0.095
 Week 9 - 7/03/2013


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## So_Cynical (13 March 2013)

Trade #10 

 ERJ - Enerji
 333000 Shares @ $0.006
 Week 10 - 13/03/2013


The portfolio is actually 0.01% in the red!!!


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## chops_a_must (13 March 2013)

Overall?


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## So_Cynical (20 March 2013)

Trade #11


 PGI – Panterra Gold
25300 Shares @  0.079
 Week 11 - 20/03/2013
~


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## So_Cynical (27 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #12
> 
> 
> AKP – Audio Pixels
> ...




Portfolio still less than 1% down


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## Julia (27 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Portfolio still less than 1% down



Are you happy with being 1% down?


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## So_Cynical (5 April 2013)

Trade #13


 HHL – Hunter Hall
 730 Shares @  $2.77
 Week 13 - 05/04/2013

Portfolio now down 2.16% ~ over the next few weeks ill add some miners as its about time to dip the toe in.


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## So_Cynical (11 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #13
> 
> 
> HHL – Hunter Hall
> ...




Trade #14


 SDL – Sundance
 22200 Shares @  $0.09
 Week 14 - 11/04/2013

Obvious choice after such a big decline.


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## CanOz (11 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #14
> 
> 
> SDL – Sundance
> ...




Struth....


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## prawn_86 (11 April 2013)

CanOz said:


> Struth....




Yeh i'll agree with that assessment. SC seems to be contrarian just for the sake of it with this pick rather than with any analysis.


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## skc (12 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #14
> 
> 
> SDL – Sundance
> ...




This is at best a trade with proper stops etc. 

If you want mining exposure there are plenty of profitable miners out there that are more suitable for your weekly income system...


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## Ves (12 April 2013)

skc said:


> This is at best a trade with proper stops etc.
> 
> If you want mining exposure there are plenty of profitable miners out there that are more suitable for your weekly income system...



Maybe by week 40 comes around and he's allowed to sell it under the system rules they will have magically built their 500km railway across Africa and the iron ore will be flowing into China who will buy it at excessive prices.  

There seems to have always been a lot of "hopium" surrounding this stock.


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## skc (12 April 2013)

Ves said:


> Maybe by week 40 comes around and he's allowed to sell it under the system rules they will have magically built their 500km railway across Africa and the iron ore will be flowing into China who will buy it at excessive prices.
> 
> There seems to have always been a lot of "hopium" surrounding this stock.




Exactly. Good range and move today for a trade. But God knows what's going to happen in 40 weeks.


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## So_Cynical (12 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Yeh i'll agree with that assessment. SC seems to be contrarian just for the sake of it with this pick rather than with any analysis.




Yep its a pure contrarian buy, i think Sundance is over sold and this system was always going to have a few pure speck stocks in it and i figured it was about time to add one...analysis is simple, Sundance looks cheap so ill buy it, the project is still a goer, the ore body is substantial as are the obstacles.




skc said:


> This is at best a trade with proper stops etc.




With 2K position size im prepared the take a total loss if it comes to that...no stops.



skc said:


> If you want mining exposure there are plenty of profitable miners out there that are more suitable for your weekly income system...




Yep and they will come..looking at one of the ETF's (maybe both) and my favourite gold miner, and a U play..later.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 April 2013)

Trade #15

IPL – Incitec Pivot
710 Shares @ $2.84
Week 15 - 17/04/2013

Portfolio now down 4.7% 

--------

Addition to rules: Buying 2nd parcels of a held stock

Second parcels can only be bought after the first parcel has fallen a minimum of 25% and 8 weeks has passed since the first parcel was purchased...or after 20 weeks has past, second parcels can never be purchased at a price greater than the first parcel.


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## tinhat (17 April 2013)

IPL is a company I like and hold. So_Cynical, can you let us know what it is about the IPL chart that makes you think it has seen it's lowest low of the cycle? What has made you decide to buy now? I find your bottom picking approach intriguing and frankly I don't understand it at all!


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## prawn_86 (18 April 2013)

If SC could answer Tinhats question in the IPL thread it would be much appreciated


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## skc (18 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #15
> 
> Portfolio now down 4.7%




Do you mean 4.7% down on invested funds or the $100k full amount? 

And does this include brokerage paid?


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## So_Cynical (18 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> If SC could answer Tinhats question in the IPL thread it would be much appreciated




I like keeping stock talk where it belongs so will do. 



skc said:


> Do you mean 4.7% down on invested funds or the $100k full amount?
> 
> And does this include brokerage paid?




4.7% down on invested funds (portfolio) including brokerage, still got 69K in the bank pulling 4.25%  one of the benefits of going in week by week, the results so far reinforce my belief that my bottom picking technique works best when general sentiment is falling and or has fallen substantially.

----------------------

An observation.

The stocks i have bought so far are falling mostly due to stock specific issues, and i think my greatest past successes have come when either general sentiment is heavily negative and when whole sectors are influenced by negative sentiment, like real estate and telcos were 1 to 2 years ago, and mining in late 2008, manufacturers in 2009/10...and commodity specific stocks like oil and gas when the price falls.

Perhaps im best suited to a system that requires me to wait months and months until i see something truly compelling :dunno: i have sort of enjoyed waiting these past 7 months having only purchased one stock.


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## So_Cynical (26 April 2013)

Trade #16


 RHL - Ruralco
 730 Shares @ $2.75
 Week 16 - 26/04/2013

Going a little better this week, now down 4.28%


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## So_Cynical (1 May 2013)

Trade #17


 IPP - iProperty Group
 2440 Shares @ $0.82
 Week 17 - 01/05/2013

Portfolio 5.64% down now...5 stocks down by double figure percentages, ERJ by 50%


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## So_Cynical (9 May 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> (13th-March-2013) Trade #10
> 
> ERJ - Enerji
> 333000 Shares @ $0.006
> Week 10 - 13/03/2013




Trade #18 

 ERJ - Enerji
 1000000 Shares @ $0.002
 Week 18 - 09/05/2013

Its been 8 weeks this week since i first entered ERJ so im in for my second and last parcel... fair enough to buy @ 0.002 as well because 5 million shares in 8 trades today (out of 9) went thru at that price.

Portfolio now down 7.62%


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## So_Cynical (15 May 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> (23rd-January-2013) Trade #3
> 
> UGL - UGL LIMITED
> 190 Shares @ $11.01
> Week 3 - 23/01/2013




In Again

Trade #19  


 UGL - UGL LIMITED
 250 Shares @ $7.95
 Week 19 - 15/05/2013


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## So_Cynical (21 May 2013)

Trade #20

 ICN - Icon Energy
 15380 Shares @ $0.13
 Week 20 - 21/05/2013

Ill be away for 2 weeks so will put the system on hold, unless i can get some free wi-fi.


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## So_Cynical (14 June 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #20
> 
> ICN - Icon Energy
> 15380 Shares @ $0.13
> ...




I'm back and will continue on...surprisingly the Portfolio is only down 6.5% :dunno: thought it would be worse.

Trade #21

 IBC - Ironbark Capital
 3900 Shares @ $0.505
 Week 21 - 24/06/2013

IBC went ex div today and fell a little more than it should...adds a little diversity to the mix to.


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## So_Cynical (20 June 2013)

Trade #22


 MAQ - Macquarie Telecom
 260 Shares @ $7.65
 Week 22 - 20/06/2013

Double bottom :dunno: just want to keep the diversification theme going before i get stuck into the Goldies, miners and services stocks.

Portfolio now down 10.2% ~ when i started this the all Ords was 4712 and now its 4743 so with more than 17 of my 20 stocks bought with the index higher than it is now and was at the start..10.2% down is prob about right if not over performing a little. :dunno:


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## So_Cynical (24 June 2013)

Trade #23


 FMG -  Fortescue
 680 Shares @ $2.92
 Week 23 - 24/06/2013

Getting hit now, Portfolio down 11.28% with only 2 stocks out of 23 in profit...but on the plus side im almost at the half way point as far as initial dollar/s roll out goes.


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## So_Cynical (2 July 2013)

Trade #24


 CDA -  Codan
 1340 Shares @ $1.49
 Week 24 - 02/07/2013

Portfolio now *-9.39%*


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## So_Cynical (8 July 2013)

Trade #25

 EHL - Emeco 
 8500 Shares @ 0.235
 Week 25 - 08/07/2013
Portfolio now *-0.81%*

The portfolio had a good week with the SP recovery of ERJ, timely to at the half way point with 50K in and 50K to come....conclusions/feelings so far?

Well i think the discipline of 1 stock per week is somewhat working as is the small position size and 2nd parcel rules all limiting my early losses..diversification is also working because if i had been throwing everything at the mining and mine services stocks of would of been hammered.

Overall i think this system has potential, some fine tuning to come...im toying with the idea of not selling losers at all, i mite set up a mirror portfolio and see how that works.
`


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## So_Cynical (17 July 2013)

Trade #26


 EGP - Echo Entertainment
 720 shares @ $2.77
 Week 25 - 17/07/2013

Portfolio now *+6.32%*~ was down 11.28% just 3 weeks ago. 

A remarkable turn around in the portfolio with the take over announcement concerning APK, the rising oil price for ICN, the 100% rise in ERJ and the slight turn in sentiment for gold and minerals in general helping my FMG, PGI and EHL positions.

Portfolio now holds 24 stocks of which 15 are in profit.

-----------

Something not often talked about on this forum is the opportunity gained when a portfolio reaches a certain size, as in holds a number of stocks large enough to open up the portfolio to the positives of random positive announcements/corporate actions.

I have seen this positive opportunity benefit play out in my personal portfolio over the last 6 years and now just 6 months and 24 stocks into this experiment we are seeing it play out in this portfolio...the positives of holding many diverse stocks.


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## So_Cynical (26 July 2013)

Trade #27


 PFL - Patties Foods
 1520 shares @ $1.31
 Week 27 - 26/07/2013

Portfolio now *+7.71%*

Interesting that the 2 stocks i have averaged down with (ERJ & UGL) are at either end of the portfolio according to $ up/down, ERJ is the biggest cash winner and UGL the biggest cash loser..the double edged sword of the market.


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## So_Cynical (31 July 2013)

Trade #28


 TRY - Troy Resources
 1420 shares @ $1.40
 Week 28 - 31/07/2013

Portfolio now *+3.86%*


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## So_Cynical (10 August 2013)

Trade #29


 BLD - Boral
 470 shares @ $4.24
 Week 29 - 09/08/2013

Portfolio now *+2.81%*


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## So_Cynical (15 August 2013)

Trade #30


 EZL -  Euroz
 2030 shares @ $0.985
 Week 30 - 15/08/2013

Portfolio now *+5.66%*

Portfolio has been in the green for 5 weeks now, 30 parcels in total with 16 in profit, with 8 of the 10 biggest losing parcels purchased between Jan 23 and April 11..a tale of 2 half's :dunno:


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## So_Cynical (22 August 2013)

Trade #31


 TWE - Treasury Wine
 430 shares @ $4.68
 Week 31 - 22/08/2013

Portfolio now *+4.14%* ~ portfolio has been in the green for 6 weeks now.

The largest % loser and winner have both changed this week, FMG the biggest % winner at 44% and RIC the largest % loser at 27% ~ reinforcing the absolute fact that both winners and losers are not constant, one weeks loser can be another weeks winner.


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## tech/a (24 August 2013)

> The largest % loser and winner have both changed this week, FMG the biggest % winner at 44% and RIC the largest % loser at 27% ~ reinforcing the absolute fact that both winners and losers are not constant, one weeks loser can be another weeks winner.




But had you kept your winning trades and culled your losing trades even at a 10% loss surely your portfolio would be performing much better??


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## So_Cynical (30 August 2013)

tech/a said:


> But had you kept your winning trades and culled your losing trades even at a 10% loss surely your portfolio would be performing much better??




I was going to actually calculate this (the above) but never got round to it...one clear difference would be that losses would be locked in and thus the positive side to the 2 edged sword of the market would be closed out so to speak...opportunity lost in exchange for the certainty of small loss.

----



Julia said:


> (27th-March-2013) Are you happy with being 1% down?




5 months later am i happy being 2.4% up? 

--------

Trade #32


 SLX - Silex
 820 shares @ $2.42
 Week 32 - 30/08/2013

Portfolio now *+2.39%*

Time for some 2nd parcels, Still very keen long term on Silex...recent positive news to.


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## So_Cynical (5 September 2013)

Trade #33


 CLV -  Clover 
 3650 Shares @ $0.545
 Week 33 - 05/09/2013

Portfolio now *+4.25%*

I hold CLV in my real portfolio, prob should be getting some more at this level...Markets down and this portfolio is up. :dunno:

Another week and yet another largest % winner IPP up 54.94%


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## skc (6 September 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Markets down and this portfolio is up. :dunno:
> 
> Another week and yet another largest % winner IPP up 54.94%




Your portfolio return is heavily skewed by a +/- one tick for ERJ which you have over 1m shares. 

How's your portfolio compare to the XJOAI from the start of the exercise, including dividends?


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## VSntchr (6 September 2013)

skc said:


> Your portfolio return is heavily skewed by a +/- one tick for ERJ which you have over 1m shares.
> 
> How's your portfolio compare to the XJOAI from the start of the exercise, including dividends?




I always have trouble finding a source for historical performance/charting for the accumulation indicies...does anyone have a good source available for benchmarking purposes??


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## skc (6 September 2013)

VSntchr said:


> I always have trouble finding a source for historical performance/charting for the accumulation indicies...does anyone have a good source available for benchmarking purposes??




http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Weekly/2013-08-31/JAwrdp130831.xls


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## VSntchr (6 September 2013)

skc said:


> http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Weekly/2013-08-31/JAwrdp130831.xls




:thankyou:


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## So_Cynical (6 September 2013)

skc said:


> Your portfolio return is heavily skewed by a +/- one tick for ERJ which you have over 1m shares.
> 
> How's your portfolio compare to the XJOAI from the start of the exercise, including dividends?




Ah good to see someone is paying attention, yes a big turn around for ERJ which was making this exercise look good just a few weeks ago, and was as of this week giving a neutral contribution...now i though this was a positive in that the general portfolio was performing ok and not needing the out perform of ERJ to make it look ok/good.

Will do a portfolio comparison next week.


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## So_Cynical (13 September 2013)

Trade #34

 IAW - ILH Group
 26600 Shares @ $0.075
 Week 34 - 13/09/2013



So_Cynical said:


> 17th-April-2013
> Addition to rules: Buying 2nd parcels of a held stock
> 
> Second parcels can only be bought after the first parcel has fallen a minimum of 25% and 8 weeks has passed since the first parcel was purchased...or after 20 weeks has past, second parcels can never be purchased at a price greater than the first parcel.




Staying within the rules as 23 weeks has passed since the first entry into IAW..i find myself drawn to re-entry's for some reason.

----

Portfolio now *+2.63%*


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## RandR (14 September 2013)

I understand you take a certain level of enjoyment from your investing efforts SC.

You appear to be able to save a hell of a lot of your time and effort by purchasing an index etf. Why not?

I know this thread wouldn't be half as exciting if it was. "Trade 35: Once again purchased another lot of STW/IOZ/VAS/IVV."

But have you considered it?


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## So_Cynical (14 September 2013)

RandR said:


> I understand you take a certain level of enjoyment from your investing efforts SC.




Yeap a certain level of enjoyment.



RandR said:


> You appear to be able to save a hell of a lot of your time and effort by purchasing an index etf. Why not?




Because this is about developing a "simple weekly income system" and i cant see how that would be possible with an index ETF, not any sort of parcel based system anyway, not in the same ETF and not weekly.

Considering the screen shot below, how would i have parcels in STW (for example) purchased over the last 8 months that were 55% in profit and 33% in loss...simply not possible.

----------

Interesting that ERJ is now (again) the biggest % loser, since first entry the stock has gone to the biggest loser to the biggest winner and now back again to the biggest loser...the key to the success or failure of this experiment will be outperform stocks like ERJ and having rules in place to make sure they are more often than not sold as winners not losers.
~


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## So_Cynical (20 September 2013)

Trade #35

 NHC -  New Hope
 520 Shares @ $3.88
 Week 35 - 20/09/2013
Some Coal exposure to round out the portfolio, struggled to find a pick this week as everything is looking expensive ~ Portfolio now *+3.67%*[/QUOTE]


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## tech/a (21 September 2013)

So C

I've noticed that your having trouble out performing the market.
I feel your unlikely to do so due to 
(1) The number od stocks held
(2) the close to buy and hold strategy.

Is this something you expect?


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2013)

tech/a said:


> So C
> 
> I've noticed that your having trouble out performing the market.
> I feel your unlikely to do so due to
> ...




The number of stocks held was always going to be a leveller, i think the portfolio performance is perhaps distracting attention from the system as a whole...the selling is where the profits are going to come from and there are many stocks held that are in substantial profit.

I haven't given portfolio performance much thought other than i expected to be in small (under 20%) profit.


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## So_Cynical (30 September 2013)

I took a week off last week, going away this week so might take 1 or 2 more off.

Trade #36

 WEB -  Webjet
 530 Shares @ $3.78
 Week 36 - 30/09/2013

Portfolio now *+4.34%* and we have a new leader, IPP @ *97.31%*


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## So_Cynical (17 October 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> (20th-March-2013) Trade #11
> 
> 
> PGI – Panterra Gold
> ...




In for parcel number 2 of PGI, this time at a much lower price. 

Trade #37


 PGI – Panterra Gold
41500 Shares @  0.048
 Week 37 - 17/10/2013

Portfolio now *+3.84%* and about 1% in dividends paid.


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## So_Cynical (28 October 2013)

Trade #38


 LYC – Lynas
41500 Shares @  0.36
 Week 38 - 28/10/2013

Portfolio now *+7.33%*


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## So_Cynical (8 November 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade #4
> 
> APK - Australian Power & Gas
> 4700 Shares @ $0.425
> Week 4 - 31/01/2013




Trade #39 - week 39 - 07/11/2013 

Sold this week for $0.52 due to the AGL take over, 21.44% profit  nice way to kick off the approaching sales part of this strategy.

Portfolio now *+3.21%*


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## So_Cynical (13 November 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> *The Trade Rules*
> 
> 1 Trade (entry or exit) per week as long as system and funds permit.
> Dividends and credits not included in winning and losing % calculations.
> ...




Due to selling APK last week because of the takeover and compulsory acquisition, week 40 will see a new position opened rather than the first loser sold....that will now come next week.

--------------

Trade #40


 IMF – IMF Aust
1170 Shares @ $1.71
 Week 40 - 13/11/2013

Portfolio now *+3.56%*


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## So_Cynical (21 November 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> (8th-January-2013)
> 
> *The Trade Rules*
> 
> ...




Slight change in plan..2nd biggest losing parcel has been sold, UGL for a 39% loss as i have decided that selling the biggest % loser would sometimes be stupid, have to say my hearts not in this, selling losers is just not in my DNA.

The UGL chart for me is a screaming buy, and here i'am selling - following this rule set....its an experiment after all, and so i have decided to choose between the largest 3 losing parcels when its time to sell a loser (every 10 weeks) funny that after entering the UGL sale the portfolio lifted by almost 2%

Portfolio now *+2.12%*

Trade exit #2


 UGL - UGL 
190 Shares @ $6.75
 Week 42 - 21/11/2013


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## So_Cynical (6 December 2013)

Ok so a bit of house keeping first, trade #39 should of been Trade exit #1

So lets make this Trade #39


 REX - Regional express
 2300 Shares @ $0.87
 Week 42 - 06/12/2013

Portfolio now *-0.87%* with 40 trade entry's and 2 exits.


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## So_Cynical (9 December 2013)

So lets make this Trade #41


 AMP - AMP
 460 Shares @ $4.35
 Week 43 - 09/12/2013

Portfolio now *-1.40%* More losers (19) than winners (17) now, first time in 6 months, the tide is turning.


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## skc (10 December 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> So lets make this Trade #41
> 
> 
> AMP - AMP
> ...




Can you add a little bit more details around your performance? Since your thread is about "weekly income", it'd be good to know how this income part is working out as well as the portfolio value itself.

May be something like:
- Total portfolio value = $XX
- Cash = $XX
- Open P&L = $XX
- Closed P&L = $XX
- Dividends received = $XX
- Overall return = $XX (XX%)

Just a suggestion.


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## mikepowers (10 December 2013)

tinhat said:


> Goal. 12% annual return per annum on $100k investment. You could have bought TLS a year ago and you would be getting 12% return with franking credits. But the river moves on... My point is that dividends are a wonderful thing for people looking for income. There are still some little gems out there that are still yielding well. I would have a serious think about allocating some of that capital to long term holdings in dividend paying stocks.




Agree! There will always be gold mine out there, utilizing it well.


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## So_Cynical (10 December 2013)

skc said:


> Can you add a little bit more details around your performance? Since your thread is about "weekly income", it'd be good to know how this income part is working out as well as the portfolio value itself.
> 
> May be something like:
> - Total portfolio value = $XX
> ...




The selling started a couple of weeks back and will now be regular part of this thread...as per the plan.



So_Cynical said:


> (8th-January-2013)r.
> [/list]
> 
> *The Trade Rules*
> ...




Ill go with your template except that im not keeping track of dividends and interest on cash, so have decided to just add a lump sum every year (Jan) to represent dividends and interest, thinking that since Nabtrade is paying 3.65% on its high interest trading account.

3% would be a fair approximate return...since the portfolio was more cash than shares over the last 12 months and that at least half the shares held pay dividends, 35 stocks in the portfolio of wich 24 pay dividends...so fair enough i would think.


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## So_Cynical (24 December 2013)

I'm travelling until mid Jan and have no access to my portfolio software..im quessing that EZL meets the requirements for making it my first proper (in profit) sale.



So_Cynical said:


> Trade #30
> 
> 
> EZL -  Euroz
> ...






Trade exit #3


 EZL - Euroz
 2030 Shares @ $1.20
 Week 42 - 24/12/2013


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## So_Cynical (8 January 2014)

Trade entry #42

 EPW - ERM Power
 880 shares @ $2.30
 Week 45 - 08/01/2014


----------



## So_Cynical (20 January 2014)

Trade entry #43

 AVA - Aviva
 8900 @ $0.225
 Week 46 - 20/01/2014


----------



## So_Cynical (1 February 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade entry #43
> 
> AVA - Aviva
> 8900 @ $0.225
> Week 46 - 20/01/2014




Like to be buying the above this week.

Anyway

Trade entry #44

 GNC - Graincorp
 270 @ $7.57
 Week 47 - 31/01/2014


----------



## So_Cynical (6 February 2014)

Trade entry #45

 ISO - IShares ASX Small Ord's ETF 
 530 Shares @ $3.78
 Week 48 - 06/02/2014

ERJ is going thru a share consolidation so no accurate portfolio vale info is avaliable.


----------



## So_Cynical (18 February 2014)

Trade entry #46

 AMA - AMA Group
 7550 Shares @ $0.265
 Week 49 - 18/02/2014

Portfolio now *+1.03%* ~ IPP is now a *234.09%* Winner..and safe to say that without that out performance the portfolio would be well into the red due to losers out numbering winners by 21 to 18.


----------



## Ves (18 February 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Trade entry #46
> 
> AMA - AMA Group
> 7550 Shares @ $0.265
> Week 49 - 18/02/2014



Been watching this one myself since the middle of last year.    Not sure what to make of it long-term,  but they've done fairly well profitability wise and in mending the balance sheet since 2010.


----------



## So_Cynical (1 March 2014)

Trade entry #47

 OTH - Onthehouse
 3850 Shares @ $0.52
 Week 45 - 28/02/2014

Portfolio now *- 1.19%*
~


----------



## So_Cynical (14 March 2014)

Trade entry #48

 AGF - AMP China Growth Fund
 2600 Shares @ $0.77
 Week 46 - 14/03/2014

Portfolio now *- 1.35%*


----------



## So_Cynical (26 March 2014)

Trade entry #49

 CLV - Clover
 4300 Shares @ $0.465
 Week 47 - 26/03/2014

Portfolio now *- 1.36%* 21 losing stocks (26 parcels) and 20 winners...2nd CLV position.


----------



## So_Cynical (5 April 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> (26th-April-2013) Trade #16
> 
> RHL - Ruralco
> 730 Shares @ $2.75
> Week 16 - 26/04/2013



Trade exit #4

 RHL - Rural Holdings
 730 Shares @ $3.40
 Week 48 - 4/4/2014
Trade Profit of 21.98%

RHL was the 6th highest % winner in the portfolio and was chosen over BLD and PRG based no the fact that RHL has been ranging and was at the top of that range, BLD has recently had a big leg up and US building fundamentals are on the improve, PRG's Share price has recently fallen and a dividend is approaching.

Some stats:
`


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 April 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> In need of a simple system to take advantage of my talent for stock picking and entry timing
> 
> My goal is to create an account that will live on in perpetuity and give me an income of 1K per Month, every month in perpetuity...comments and suggestions more than welcome.




Interested to know what criteria you use to open positions and what stops out a position?


----------



## So_Cynical (5 April 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Interested to know what criteria you use to open positions and what stops out a position?




From the first post in this thread, below.



So_Cynical said:


> *The Trade Rules*
> 
> Week 40 will see the biggest (trade %) loser sold, repeating every 10 weeks (loser must be at least 20 weeks old)
> At week 42 and every 2 weeks following *i will sell the 4th or 5th biggest winning Parcel* as long as the selection is in profit by at least 12% and not within 5 weeks of an approaching or past ex div date.




The 4th, 5th and *6th* (expanded the rule while still staying within the basics) highest % winning parcels were, BLD, PRG and RHL...chose RHL due the stated reasons, this is a somewhat discretionary system.

I think BLD and PRG can go higher, and don't think RHL can in the short term, and had to choose one of the three.


----------

