# ARQ - Arc Energy



## Bonk (24 April 2005)

ARQ : WILL SET THE PACE with big production and cashflow in this weeks quarterly . This will show COE and other oilers how it is done at the top ~!

EXPLORATION : Dongara-33 is testing 10BCF reserve . Should have nice flow expected to be near 5mmcuftd if it is anything like Dongara-34 . These are all part of the Aranoo gasfield ~! 

Next well will be the CORYBAS delineation well . It will be called Yardarino-6 . It is said unofficially that the Elegans gasfield area has reserves of several hundreds of BCF ; with 100BCF recoverable .

Following on will be the return to Jingermia oilfield , with Jingermia - 5 well ..... this is under 3D seismic , and should increase reserves significantly , not to mention increased production by 1000bopd+

It is expected that Rig #11 will then commence the main oil 3D seismic based program consisting of 6-12 wells . 

Rig #16 will r /e Turantula-1st and this to should be very positive for ARQ gas production. We will have to see if this rig joins its brother rig in the oil campaign ?????

The above is based on my research and may be taken as a guide ONLY . DYOR , and buy ARQ to get rich quick...........

Hold significant ARQ shares .


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## GreatPig (24 April 2005)

*Re: ARQ = STOCK OF THE YEAR 2005*

Bonk,

I think one ramp for ARQ would have been enough.

IMO, from a technical point of view, they are currently about 40% odd over-priced. Unless things change dramatically, I wouldn't consider an entry unless the price got down to around $1.20 or so.

Despite the upward movement of the last few days, I think they're still on a short-term down trend, with a fair possibility of getting back to the $1.20 - $1.30 area in the not-too-distant future.

And if I really polish up the crystal ball, hold a wet finger up to the wind, and read a few tea leaves, I'd anticipate another price fall on Tuesday. But this is, of course, pure speculation based on very little.

Oh... and just to balance the ramp a bit...

I heard ARQ's going broke!!! SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL!!! 

GP


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## RichKid (24 April 2005)

*Re: ARQ = STOCK OF THE YEAR 2005*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Bonk,
> 
> I think one ramp for ARQ would have been enough.
> 
> ...




Agree with you GP, looks like it's retracing and returning to trend, think it may bounce closer to 1.30 though. A fibbonnaci study would be good for the recent downtrend. Watch the price of oil, always an influence on oil stocks but this one looks like it's just gone up way too far.


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## RichKid (26 September 2005)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

ARQ now around 2.09, a recent presentation said some work coming up in October and lots of wells over the next year. Approaching all time highs, I'm watching for a breakout as it has bounced off a recent trendline. Doing some drilling with ORG, more leverage via ARQ for those wells.


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## The Once-ler (27 September 2005)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

I really can't see how ARQ could be overvalued.

It has a really low PE as you would expect of an established producer, but it has no debt, heaps of cash, and a big continueing drilling program. In my opinion, there is not much downside due to the low PE, but plenty of upside and blue sky. Just the sort of company I like.

I hold.

Good luck.


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## RichKid (7 November 2005)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

A very poor story recently for ARQ, lots of red down days, has steadily fallen. No sign of halting yet, oil price falling doesn't help, lots of oil juniors have taken hits. Wonder when the next big exploration date is...


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## RichKid (5 January 2006)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

Ok, I think we've seen a moderate to major bottom here in ARQ and with the oil price appearing to prepare for a retest of the all time highs around US$70 I expect the oilers to start running again, it's when the whole crowd joins in that prices spike so now is the time for early entries imo. Arc Energy is an established producer with diversified interests looking to expand, it's not just one well in the middle of nowhere. Busy exploration schedule ahead.

The chart shows a consolidation/reversal pattern imo, prices rejected lower levels and then raced up to near the top area of that box, now retracing but firmly above the lows of last month. While this isn't the strongest confirmation I believe the worst of this decline has ended. The key is higher prices on higher volume imo so that hasn't ocurred yet but I expect it will soon.

Please note that I often get these charts wrong and we could well see some selling to even lower levels than last month so be wary. I'm not sure if that 'key reversal' day qualifies as one technically (Strictly speaking) as the prices didn't close above the open but it was a strong signal that the decline had ended and was confirmed on the subsequent days.


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## TjamesX (5 January 2006)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

With you on this one RK, I purchased ARQ and AWE about 1 month ago looking for a rebound in oil prices.... so far ARQ has gone nowhere but AWE up 12%.

I'm still bullish on ARQ - and oil in general, may get some more now that the oil price is rebounding. I believe a couple of brokers have a buy rating on this one (price targeting $2 - $2.10).

See what happens


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## RichKid (5 January 2006)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> With you on this one RK, I purchased ARQ and AWE about 1 month ago looking for a rebound in oil prices.... so far ARQ has gone nowhere but AWE up 12%.
> 
> I'm still bullish on ARQ - and oil in general, may get some more now that the oil price is rebounding. I believe a couple of brokers have a buy rating on this one (price targeting $2 - $2.10).
> 
> See what happens




Hey TJ,
I hold both as well, have been stopped out before, same basis as you for purchase plus technical patterns. ARQ is a slow mover atm but these bases take time, people would have been shaken out during that reversal spike, I do note broker views but don't place that much emphasis on them generally.

Good news today but the last well was a duster and that's what weakened it before imo apart from the oil price. Let's see how this goes, bad news from the testing will really test that support level imo. A positive close today (not shown on last graph) butwe need more volume.


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## GreatPig (5 January 2006)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

I've been considering ARQ recently as well, but don't have any spare funds at the moment.

If it's still looking good after my next sale, I might get some.

Cheers,
GP


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## Dutchy3 (17 January 2006)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

BIG WHITE NEW AIR HEAVY VOLUME


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## RichKid (17 January 2006)

*Re: ARQ  ARC Energy*

Looking to  pyramid once support is established and a new pattern is clearer. Huge volume today, couldn't believe it. Need confirmation now.


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## Amarillo Slim (15 March 2006)

Hey guys,

Any recent views on Arc, I've had it on my watchlist since July '04 when it was about 80c. It's about $1.50ish now, with a PE ratio half of others in it's sector and with what looks like very enticing profit figures.

Anyone care to comment? 

Cheers...AS


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## RichKid (15 March 2006)

Amarillo Slim said:
			
		

> Hey guys,
> 
> Any recent views on Arc, I've had it on my watchlist since July '04 when it was about 80c. It's about $1.50ish now, with a PE ratio half of others in it's sector and with what looks like very enticing profit figures.
> 
> ...




Hey Amarillo,
I got stopped out of it recently, a lull in exploration activity and a bearish oil price have seen it slide imo. I sold because it broke a support level. Will look to enter again but not yet, some nice support appearing recently but it may have further sellers to overcome.


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## Lachlan6 (15 March 2006)

G'day amarillo slim. Well you may be a hardcore fundamentalist, I am a hardcore chartist. Anyway ARQ from one glance at the weekly chart poses a few problems. Since reaching its all time high in October last year, it has collapsed and is only being saved by support at $1.48 currently. If ARQ falls through this level, watch out for much bigger falls. From there it would probably have new support at $1.13, fibonacci level. This stock is a very good example of bearish divergence working its magic. It had huge bearish divergence in the RSI from its highs in March 2005 and October 2005, one of the surest signals of predicted weakness. Its in oil though cant be a bad thing, however will be if that $1.48 level is breached imo.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (9 June 2006)

Well Lachlan6 ,what do your hardcore charts suggest with ARQ.It seems todays prices of $1.53>1.55 seems pretty ripe for pickings.
At present ,I hope some of the prices you've mention will test my patience.Have speculated on this stock with considerable returns......  :dance:


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## RichKid (9 June 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Well Lachlan6 ,what do your hardcore charts suggest with ARQ.It seems todays prices of $1.53>1.55 seems pretty ripe for pickings.
> At present ,I hope some of the prices you've mention will test my patience.Have speculated on this stock with considerable returns......  :dance:




It has broken a minor diagonal support line today, not good if it closes below that, much selling at levels above this, I expect that recent low to be re-tested, best to find an oil stock in a strong uptrend imho. I like this stock but not to buy atm.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (9 June 2006)

Rich Kid .....your thoughts most appreciated! 
At present there is 145K shares in the buyers column @1.53.......anxious moments! and quiet unusual for this share.What does the market know that I don't know!
Nice weekend!


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## RichKid (9 June 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Rich Kid .....your thoughts most appreciated!
> At present there is 145K shares in the buyers column @1.53.......anxious moments! and quiet unusual for this share.What does the market know that I don't know!
> Nice weekend!




Hi 3views!
Good to hear from a fellow ARQ follower, I try not to put too much emphasis on the depth unless something really stands out. Price comes foremost imho. I hope this works out well for you.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (9 June 2006)

With just a hint of mayhem,this share is going places.I will buy and sell this share throughout,next financial year .Unfortunately ,the current price and lines involved today is bait enough.I need therapy....or back to basics .....a glass of wine!


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## 3 veiws of a secret (16 June 2006)

Well $1.24 a few blinks yesterday or the day before -and today $ 1.50+....this share is a wizard, if not a true star. A day traders delight indeed!
Richkid! did you trawl this one out, if so put a smiley on your reply!


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## 3 veiws of a secret (24 August 2006)

I keep seeing this stock dropping off to $1.50 levels every once in a while ,and everytime I buy into them and sell at $1.65>$1.70 it drops back again to $1.45>$1.50........deja-vu who knows ! Ching ching I'm in again !


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## brerwallabi (11 September 2006)

Rich
Are you still following this?
I think $1.60 might be possible on the chart, does not look like one to hold though.
The price of oil is also a concern.


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## RichKid (17 September 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Rich
> Are you still following this?
> I think $1.60 might be possible on the chart, does not look like one to hold though.
> The price of oil is also a concern.




Apologies Brer for not replying sooner, just stumbled on your post while browsing for something else.

I'm bearish oil and bearish oil stocks but I do expect this sharp sell off in oil to end shortly and then we should see a temporary retracement during which I expect some oil stocks to bounce too (could correspond with a retest of your upper boundary on your chart, best to trade the ARQ chart than the oil chart for such a bounce imo), but in the short term oil aint my darling, although over the next few years I expect to see prices above $90 based on the current price trend.

I too like ARQ but can't see a reason to buy atm, I view this as a major correction in the first major cycle of what I expect will be a stellar bull run- that's just probabilities, not sure what will actually occur.

Just my views guys, have often been wrong on these oilers of late and I'm not exactly a gun trader but it's well worth studying these mid sized producers, you never know what you'll learn before the next bit of oil mania on the ASX.....


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## RichKid (18 September 2006)

Another chart, weekly, similar to yours Brer, showing a broad channel. Today is Monday so that last bar is not of much use, just trying to show the general trend...there is some buying though (see the mid range close of last week for instance).


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## scranch (21 September 2006)

Bought a small parcel today @ $1.27.
Can see more upside than downside at that price.Will keep a tight stop,and take a small loss if neccessary.
Brian


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## 3 veiws of a secret (21 September 2006)

scranch said:
			
		

> Bought a small parcel today @ $1.27.
> Can see more upside than downside at that price.Will keep a tight stop,and take a small loss if neccessary.
> Brian




Well Brian I'm just been hanging on waiting for $1.25.....then I'm in like Flynn! 17500 will do me ! 
ARQ has been a little earner for me ,somehow feel touched by it ...... G'Luck @ $1.27!!!!


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## yogi-in-oz (24 September 2006)

Hi folks,

ARQ ... will be alert for news early this week
25092006, then some more significant time 
cycles coming into play, on:

06101006 ... aggressive move here???

12102006 ... spotlight on ARQ

16102006 ... financial news here ???

happy days

yogi


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## KaiserBun (27 September 2006)

It was interesting to see on Lateline Business the other night where the head of AWE admitted to discussions about takeover/merger but refused to provide details. 

I wonder if ARQ has had the same interset in it.

Just from an Australian perspective, who would be interested in merging, taking over ARC??? Just after opinions, not saying that these companies are actually interested. 

For me, i believe ARC would fit into SANTOS very well. It would give them exposure to the onshore Perth Basin.


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## brerwallabi (30 September 2006)

Nice pick up for ARQ over the week.
3 views did you miss buying?
There was a lot of volume on Friday, it might reach that $1.60 again.
I think I would be having a very tight stop now if I owned this.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (30 September 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Nice pick up for ARQ over the week.
> 3 views did you miss buying?
> There was a lot of volume on Friday, it might reach that $1.60 again.
> I think I would be having a very tight stop now if I owned this.




Yep I missed it .My strict policy of not chasing the share explains my discipline. But nevermind it's a poker game at the moment ,it will resurface again to its lower levels. Next week you might be driving that porsche!


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## Dukey (9 October 2006)

Dont forget the ARQ - ADI (adelphi) connection.

IF ADI have good news from Sugarloaf this or next week (mid-late Oct) - then surely ARQ will jump with it.  

How much i dunno - someone in another thread suggested up to +$1 per ARQ share - but that might be pushing it. Could press towards $2 again though...

As for Santos wanting ARQ - They seem to have their hands full with their QGC bid at the mo!!    If that falls through - who knows.


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## Agentm (9 October 2006)

hey Dukey,,

yep, as an ARC shareholder,, its definately nice to see the rise,, you may find its from ADI.. as they own 25% of ADI then if sugarloaf strikes it big and the hosston sands are a success, then the price will be worth $1 to the ARC price.. 

As for takeovers,, they have been trying to make it attractive but i think as they have no new field discoveries, then they are not so attractive,, they have had a few look at them,, i believe one merger came close.. but by an large they are better equiped to actually snare a few small cap oil companies themselves and get into new acerage that way.. that are ceryainly cashed up... and so are Adelphi.. I think you may find that the Sugarloaf prospect is holding up both companies from taking on new leases,, they will need all their cash reserves and them some if sugarloaf becomes a success,, for the gas alone they will need to drill about 15 wells... and the oil thats been found but kept quiet may take 100 wells..

ARQ is a definate hold right now  or a great spec buy!!!


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## cicak_kupang (9 October 2006)

I agree, if sugarloaf shines like its looking like, then it would be awesome to see the share price back up to $2 plus.  I know ARQ has had a few dry wells and hence no new finds in the last 10 months, but its a well managed company, great cash flows and loads of bucks in the bank.  Sugarloaf aside, Yemen is on the horizon for drilling, and thats looking promising from what i've read. I just have this feeling that ARQ will shine through at some time.  Lets stop looking at the past and focus on what the future will hopefuly hold.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (17 October 2006)

cicak_kupang said:
			
		

> ... Yemen is on the horizon for drilling, and thats looking promising from what i've read. I just have this feeling that ARQ will shine through at some time.  Lets stop looking at the past and focus on what the future will hopefuly hold.




I've taken a look at the blocks in Yemen. They are useless, there's 
no active petroleum system in the three blocks. If you have ARC 
shares and the company starts to drill wells in those areas, I 
recommend you think carefully.


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## Agentm (17 October 2006)

Activity in Yemen during the year was focussed on a major
technical review of Block 35. This review has identified a
number of prospects, two of which are considered mature for
drilling. The joint venture has approved the drilling of these
wells and site construction has commenced for the first well,
Reeb 1. Reeb 1 has a target spud date of November 2006.
The second prospect, Al Magrabah 1, is likely to be drilled
early in 2007, and is designed as an updip test of the offstructure
Wadi Al Sana 1 well.


The second round of bidding for blocks in Yemen were so eagerly contested that most didnt participate,, i believe at least 15 per block.. the first round blocks were back then less sought after,, ARQ inherited its blocks from a takeover..  

i wouldnt immediately discount their potential.. although yemen is not the easiest palce to do business,, its far from the worst.. ARQ wouldnt have gone there willingly,, but since they have inherited the blocks they are not so keen to offload..


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## 3 veiws of a secret (17 October 2006)

"ARQ inherited its blocks from a takeover..  
i wouldnt immediately discount their potential.. ARQ wouldnt have gone there willingly,, but since they have inherited the blocks they are not so keen to offload"

They might not be so keen to off load because nobody wants the blocks .I'm sorry to say but my expert source ,instructs me geologically its dry as a bone. 
Now if you consider Tullow Oil  from Ireland....now we're talking!


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## RichKid (17 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> "ARQ inherited its blocks from a takeover..
> i wouldnt immediately discount their potential.. ARQ wouldnt have gone there willingly,, but since they have inherited the blocks they are not so keen to offload"
> 
> They might not be so keen to off load because nobody wants the blocks .I'm sorry to say but my expert source ,instructs me geologically its dry as a bone.
> Now if you consider Tullow Oil  from Ireland....now we're talking!




3views- I get the impression from your recent change in sentiment that you no longer hold ARQ, please try not to refer to 'expert sources' or the like without further substantiation and saying you've had a look at the well's in Yemen- what does that mean? Did you visit Yemen? 

Downramping is just as abhorrent as ramping at ASF so please re-read the posting guidelines and code of conduct and try to back up your claims with more detail. You are halfway there so just put that extra effort in.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (17 October 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> 3views- I get the impression from your recent change in sentiment that you no longer hold ARQ, please try not to refer to 'expert sources' or the like without further substantiation and saying you've had a look at the well's in Yemen- what does that mean? Did you visit Yemen?
> 
> Downramping is just as abhorrent as ramping at ASF so please re-read the posting guidelines and code of conduct and try to back up your claims with more detail. You are halfway there so just put that extra effort in.




Apologises Richkid -no intentions of downramping whatsoever -NOPE did not visit Yemen.And correct I do not hold ARQ as I never got my order in when the price was @ $1.25 recently.
My source is a PHD geologist who is currently a director of a stock listed company with offices across the globe . The persons credentials are impeccable,not only on a professional level but a close trusted friend of 36 years. So my substantiation is based on his geological knowledge of this area( ie the Middle East).  
*I would also like to point out I have not made no references to the Canning basin.*
You can make your own judgements as the press releases will eventuate in regards to Canning drilling projects .
Whether this is deemed as ramping then again I apologise -but I will not apologise for being honest to the facts that has been relayed to me.
Furthermore I will not discuss any other details on ARQ .This will be my final say in this matter.


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## RichKid (17 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Apologises Richkid -no intentions of downramping whatsoever -NOPE did not visit Yemen.And correct I do not hold ARQ .....
> .....



Thanks 3views for the extra detail, hopefully you can confirm all this once it's announced by the company. We will be clarifying the posting guidelines soon to make things easier for everyone to interpret, feel free to post in a balanced way in this thread if you like, good luck with your trading.
Rich


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## Agentm (17 October 2006)

habban 1 had a 750 meter oil column..  thats extremely close to block 7..

masila and nabrajah have huge columns too.. their reserves are staggering.. if they are parched and dry then bring it on i say...

obviously this geologist isnt that respected that they ask him about the region otherwise the fields currently discovered would never have been drilled on his advice..

if you put forward a geologist that is in the region and is well respected and sourced by all that go there then sure,, i would listen..  but i would say he is already proven incorrect and they plays in yemen are large and very hotly contested..

canning is very hard to size up,, the hype there is hard to believe,, many have come and gone,, and those left are obviously unreliable and switch out of contracts as quick as they can  ie REY!!!  

lets see how it goes there,, and dont underestimate yemen on hearsay,, if there is a geological reason for yemen to be dry  then present the facts,, and dont discount past success as fancy,, there is plenty to be explored there..

i will sell after they are taken over in the coming year or so...  lets hope they get on with it and make the company attractive and actually perform and find some new fields away from sugarloaf..


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## Stan 101 (17 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> *I would also like to point out I have not made no references to the Canning basin.*




Well you have now..


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## Agentm (19 October 2006)

i see arq now are making an extra 33.8 mill on a real handy flow rate from the new hovea well..


nice!!!!!!!!!


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## Dukey (19 October 2006)

Yes indeedy Agent 86.

ARQ and ADI - my deadly combination for this month (and next). >>>> Watch `em go boys n gals.   
(plus KZL just for the Halibut)

ARQ was a great buy a few days back at $1.30 or so - wish I`d had the cash to buy more then!!  Damnnnnnnn.


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## cicak_kupang (19 October 2006)

Hi Dukey,  Yep, i agree, these  2 sure have potential. I also have exposure to them both, and feel that it is only a matter of time.  Hope so any way....


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## cicak_kupang (25 October 2006)

For any ARQ share holders out there, it may be worth your time to take a look at whats been writen in ADI, ARQ's subsid' company.  Looks and sounds good.Just trying to get a feel on peoples opinion as to how ARQ's share price may run if ADI has a good find?  Any comments guys/ gals?


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## fflintoff (2 November 2006)

*Oilbarrel 2 November 2006*

http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html


02.11.2006
Empyrean Energy Looks To Sugarloaf Prospect For Sweet Smell Of Success



"Empyrean Energy Looks To Sugarloaf Prospect For Sweet Smell Of Success
London AIM-listed Empyrean Energy is drilling ahead with the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well in Texas, where it hopes to bring a smile to investors' faces ahead of the Christmas break. Empyrean is earning a 6 per cent equity share in the Sugarloaf Hosston prospect in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin, with initial drilling scheduled for completion later this month, slightly behind original timings. 

Empyrean farmed into the acreage earlier this year and partners Aussie duo Aurora Oil & Gas and Adelphi Energy, alongside operator Texas Crude Energy Inc. The proposed total depth of the well, which crosses a number of potentially interesting formations, is around 21,000 feet. 

There is clear potential, especially in such a built-up, gas-hungry neighbourhood. Sugarloaf is an 80 km four-way closure that could hold several trillion cubic feet of gas, making it one of the largest undrilled structures onshore US. The P50 resource number on the prospect is 0.97 tcf and it carries a P10 estimate of 2.3 tcf. 

But only time will tell how good Sugarloaf will taste. In the meantime, Empyrean can take heart from earlier drilling at its other US play, the Eagle Oil prospect in the San Joaquin Basin in California. A proven oil and gas zone - the area has produced some 12 billion barrels of oil and 11 tcf of gas through the years - the project offers strong potential for near-term production and cash flow. 

Empyrean signed up for a 38.5 per cent slice of Eagle Oil just months after its market listing last year, and now partners another reputable Aussie in the shape of Victoria Petroleum NL. But getting the oil out of the ground is the key challenge. A workover rig is testing encouraging oil shows from previous drilling at the Eagle North-1 well, though the project has faced delays due to supply and equipment bottlenecks. 

The group plan a future re-entry and sidetrack from the current cased Eagle North-1 well bore in the lower Gatchell oil sand, about 14,000 feet down. This future well test will indicate the size of the Eagle Oil pool, according to Tom Kelly, Empyrean's commercial director. “We know that oil is there,” he says. “We just need to flow test.” 

More than a year after its AIM listing, Empyrean has bolstered its portfolio with two promising, and fairly low-risk, US-based projects. An additional capital raising exercise earlier this year means it is well placed to continue its exploration and work towards first production. This includes ongoing site work in Germany, the firm's other core territory. 

On the other side of the Atlantic, the UK firm has a stake in the Glantal Prospect, Neues Bergland permit, close to Frankfurt, which is operated by Pannonian International Limited. The joint venture, which gives Empyrean a 40 per cent working interest - and the possibility of raising this to 52 per cent - hopes to extract gas trapped in deep coal beds. 

Again, the prospect is thought to contain several tcf of recoverable gas reserves, hugely attractive figures anywhere but especially so in Western Europe's industrial heartland. But there is still some way to go, with further testing planned following initial positive drilling and gas shows."


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## Ken (10 November 2006)

at current prices of $1.51 is ARQ worth an investment of 2000 shares...

if not why not....

if so why so....

westpac says BUY... but they also said that for funtastic...


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## Dukey (10 November 2006)

Well Ken for my part I'd say you couldn't go to far wrong with ARC just now.
Why so ?? - *go check out the ADI thread *- Sugarloaf Gas IS starting to happen big-time in Texas and ARC are ~25%(?) owners of ADI. So it stands to reason  that ARC should benefit nicely. 
Then again ADI should benefit more!!  I'm happy - I've got both 
Good luck. 
*DYOR!!! *


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## Agentm (14 November 2006)

couple of handy reports today..

arc managed to get more acerage in the canning, and announced a place to drill there.. 

and good results from their development well..

if adi does what its meant to then the arq share starts to get the value of sugarloaf potentially also..

arq tout $1 to their share on a 800BCF find at the sugarloaf well..

are there lots of buy recommendations still on this stock??


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## cicak_kupang (17 November 2006)

Agentm said:
			
		

> couple of handy reports today..
> 
> arc managed to get more acerage in the canning, and announced a place to drill there..
> 
> ...




Hi Agent m,on etrade there are 3 brokers with a strong buy for ARQ, and one with a med buy.  Its been that way for a few months. Hope they haven't forgot about ARQ like the market has seemed to forget about the link between sugarloaf and ARQ?????  Where have you been Agentm, no postings lately?


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## Aussiejeff (27 November 2006)

Release Date: 27 November 2006
To: Australian Stock Exchange Ltd No of Pages: 2
From: Eric Streitberg
Re: Eremia 6 Development well flows 3,790 bopd on test
ARC Energy Limited advises that the Eremia 6 well, operated by ARC Energy and
located in the onshore Perth Basin Production License L1, has now been completed
and flow tested at an initial rate of 3,790 barrels of oil per day.
Since the last report, the operations at the well have been the completion of cementing
of the production casing, running of production tubing and the release of the drilling rig
to the Lyginia 1 location.
After perforation over an eight meter interval at the top of the Dongara Sandstone a
cleanup flow was undertaken and the well was then flowed over a 6 hour period
through a 1 inch (24.5 mm) choke. The average flowing tubing pressure during this
period was 190 psig (1,312 kpa) and the average oil flow rate was 3,790 bopd (602
cubic meters per day) with no water. The well will now be put on production through
the temporary flow line until installation of the permanent flow line which is expected to
take approximately three weeks.
Participants in L1 and L2 (excluding the Dongara, Mondarra and Yardarino fields) and
Eremia 6 are:
• ARC Energy Limited - 50% (Operator)
• Origin Energy Developments Pty Ltd - 50% (a wholly owned subsidiary of Origin
Energy Limited)
Managing Directors’ comments:
“This is another outstanding result for the ARC team and makes a hat trick for the three
appraisal and development wells drilled in the program. The well has been placed on
test production less than three days after being handed over to the production crew,
and will immediately add to production rates from the field. The well produced at
somewhat higher rates than expected and the attached photo of the clean-up flare
illustrates the size of the flow rate. The rig is currently drilling Lyginia 1, the first of a
series of exploration wells and we look forward to success during that program.”

Good news folks!  With ARQ's 50% share = approx. 1900 BOPD which at a conservative ave. price of AU$75 per barrel = approx. AU$52million over a year into ARQ's kitty.

Might fire the shares a bit more in the short term at least.

Cheers,

AJ


----------



## cicak_kupang (2 December 2006)

Does any body know what they are expecting to find at Lyginia 1?  I cant find anywhere what size of reserve may be there.


----------



## Odduna (3 December 2006)

cicak_kupang said:
			
		

> Does any body know what they are expecting to find at Lyginia 1?  I cant find anywhere what size of reserve may be there.




According to slide 17 of the November Corporate Presentation (www.arcenergy.com.au)

Lyginia:  1-2 mmbbls
Drakea: 15 mmbbls
Red Hill/Eutaxia: 10 mmbbls

Not sure if the 1-2 mmbbls is a typo on presentation, in that it could be 12 mmbbls?


----------



## cicak_kupang (7 December 2006)

Cheers Odduna, i did actually see that now come to think of it, but it was late at night, so that prob had something to do with it.
Anyway, alot of good it did, god damn dry well!  They drilled it quickly though. Cant wait to see more interest and support for ARQ when the results for Sugarloaf,ADI, eventually come out.  All sounds positive from what i have seen/ read.


----------



## cicak_kupang (22 December 2006)

Yemen block 35 is meant to spun late 06, lets hope that will bring the sp back up and back in favour with investors.  all i can say is that its a bargan at these prices.  I've been looking into the canning basin a bit more and i'm feeling rather excited about that too.  Plenty of positive events ahead for ARQ i feel.


----------



## speves (11 January 2007)

ARQ Energy continues to produce consistently good drilling results, has an impressive portfolio of on and offshore Perth Basin petroleum assets including infrastructure supporting producing fields. Output continues to rise with the exploration successes tied in to the regional Parmelia Pipeline.  It owns 25% of ADI which has a SP that has grown 150%+ over the past 4 months and it continues to consolidate its Canning Basin land position in preparation for drilling from April/May 2007. And it's cashed up!

I haven't yet seen a broker report in the past 3 months that doesn't have a buy recommendation, yet the SP continues to fall???

Even with Oil prices down at the moment surely this SP is significantly undervalued currently???

Thoughts anyone


_I hold and am accumulating_


----------



## barney (11 January 2007)

speves said:
			
		

> ARQ Energy continues to produce consistently good drilling results, has an impressive portfolio of on and offshore Perth Basin petroleum assets including infrastructure supporting producing fields. Output continues to rise with the exploration successes tied in to the regional Parmelia Pipeline.  It owns 25% of ADI which has a SP that has grown 150%+ over the past 4 months and it continues to consolidate its Canning Basin land position in preparation for drilling from April/May 2007. And it's cashed up!
> 
> I haven't yet seen a broker report in the past 3 months that doesn't have a buy recommendation, yet the SP continues to fall???
> 
> ...






			
				speves said:
			
		

> Howdy Speves,  It is a similar looking scenario on PSA ..............Fundamentally strong yet the sp is dropping like a stone .......... I know very little about valuing a company, but ARQ (and PSA) both look undervalued to this layman ......... With patience I think your accumulation could be well rewarded,
> 
> (I hold neither stocks, but do hold ADI)   Good luck, Barney.


----------



## chops_a_must (11 January 2007)

speves said:
			
		

> I haven't yet seen a broker report in the past 3 months that doesn't have a buy recommendation, yet the SP continues to fall???
> 
> Even with Oil prices down at the moment surely this SP is significantly undervalued currently???



The downtrend is the reason I haven't bought in yet, otherwise I would have.


----------



## speves (11 January 2007)

Correction (my apologies), ARQ now owns 33% of ADI.......


----------



## Tomahawk (12 January 2007)

I am just hoping Sugarloaf comes in. If that doesn't move the share price then I will sell all my other stocks and bet the farm on ARQ.


----------



## wintermute (12 January 2007)

speves said:
			
		

> Even with Oil prices down at the moment surely this SP is significantly undervalued currently???
> 
> Thoughts anyone
> 
> ...




Hi Speves  I'm a relatively long term holder of ARQ, currently down about 29% on them, but I'm not really worried about that.... IMO they are very undervalued at the moment.... If I had more cash I'd consider averaging down.

Why is the market selling them down?? simply IMO because of the 55% drop in profit last year... the funny thing is it was just a paper drop, they changed some accounting practices (If I've read it properly) which ended up writing off some exploration expense in a big lump, whereas they had previously been expensing it over a longer period.  The underlying business is as strong as ever, and should continue to grow...

The other factor that could be causing concern in the market is that ARQ haven't managed to grow their reserves, in fact they haven't quite replaced those that they have used, however they have an aggressive exploration plan this year, so hopefully we shall see that situation change.

My tip is that once the interim report comes out (due 27th feb) if the sp hasn't picked up already, it will then... this is based however on the belief that the write down of 34 Million in June 2006 was an abnormal event, I have not verified that this is the case.... if they have a similar write off again, then  my reasoning is flawed  

Tony.


----------



## speves (12 January 2007)

Thx Tony for the info.  I remain confident in this stock and "averaged down"  on a fairly solid performance today as you have suggested.


----------



## speves (13 January 2007)

A highly rated weekly newsletter has given the thumbs up for ARQ based on the three case senarios below:  

*Case 1*. Long term US$60/bbl oil as per our current
position.
*Case 2*. US$50/bbl in CY07 and US$60/bbl thereafter.
*Case 3*. Long term US$50/bbl from now.


*RecommendatIon case 1 case 2 case 3*
BHP  Accum  Accum Hold
WPL  Accum  Hold    Hold 
ORG  Hold Hold Hold
STO  Hold Hold Reduce
OSH  Accum Accum Hold
AWE  Hold Hold/Reduce Reduce
ROC  Buy  Buy  Accum/Hold
 ARQ  Buy  Buy  Buy
TAP Spec  Buy  Spec Buy Spec Buy
AZZ  Accum/Hold  Hold  Hold
MOS Spec Buy  Spec Buy  Spec Buy/Accum


----------



## reece55 (13 January 2007)

Geez guys, not sure about ARQ. Fundamentally, sure - the stock looks oversold. Analysts additionally maintain extreme an buy bias. But technically, to me I see an acceleration of the downtrend here. In fact, on Thursday and Friday, the low of 1.245 that was set in June to me acting as the next major support level has been broken. All in all, not good signs. However, much of the oil and gas sector is the same. WPL additionally has now broken its major support and is in strife. From a shorter term outlook, I would want a break on high volume above about 1.50 to be interested in a long position. The only positive I would say is that Fridays close is at a round about the high for the day on high volume, which could be indicative of buyers here. But the chart reeks of distribution, not accumulation.

As for averaging out your losses, personally I say only losers average out losing trades. However, the caveat for this is if you are a long term holder and wish to accumulate, this could be a strategy to employ. But anyone with less than about a 6 month time line on an investment should never average out losing trades IMO, especially when you have lost more than 25% (in fact, I would set my stop my capital exposure at a lot less than 25%, even on a higher geared trade).

Cheers
Reece


----------



## speves (13 January 2007)

Thx Reece, it always good to get a contrary (and educated) prospective to keep us alert.  I will be watching this stock closely, however I remain comfortable with the analyst's advice (for the moment).  My losses are much less than 25% and this one sits firmly in the longer term portfolio.

Time.... as always will tell


----------



## reece55 (13 January 2007)

Fair enough speeves, I didn't add in my previous post that I certainly wouldn't be advocating a short trade here either however, as I think generally the Oil and Gas sector has been over sold. Plus any stock that has been sold down as much as this one are always risky on the short side, its greater than 45% off highs made in Sep 05. 

If you like ARQ, have a look at TAP as well. This one paints a similar picture to that of ARQ - however unlike ARQ I think it may have found a bottom at about $1.40. To me, this is my pick for the Oil and Gas sector in 07. Just as disclosure for everyone else and moderators, I don't hold TAP at present and speeves, this is just my view and as always, seek professional investment advice, etc........ 

Cheers
Reece


----------



## wintermute (14 January 2007)

Hi Reece, I agree with you on how ARQ looks technically, but I've seen it do this before (looking woefull technically, and then suddenly turn around and back up to old levels... Earlier this year I was tempted to buy some around $1.40, but decided I already had enough, in hind sight I could have bought them and sold after they recovered, efectively paper shuffling and getting rid of some of the shares I'd bought at a higher price, but still getting a nice profit, without tax implications... of course at the moment its back in the doldrums, but same strategy could be applied again, assuming that there is another recovery)... since I believe in the fundamentals and I hold long term (ie I have held for over 12 months and plan to keep holding for an indefinite period) I see this as bargain territory and a great time to buy... however I realise there is real risk when being contrarian, and that I could get burnt... my initial stake in ARQ was a small one and was at a peak (bought at $2.22) My average buy price is closer to $1.75... 

ARQ has strong fundamentals, however they don't pay dividends, which may be part of the reason the market is shunning them, that combined with what I beleive is only a perceived major drop in profitability, IMO is not helping...  I'm very interested in what happens after they release the 1/2 yearly report, if they don't recover any ground then I will probably need to seriously reconsider my position!  

I like T/A however the biggest drawback I see with it, is it only tells you it is time to buy way after the turnaround is evident... I like to take the value approach, be confident in a companies fundamentals, and buy in when it seems undervalued, don't necessarily wait till it recovers to signal it is ok to buy in...... only works though if you have a really good handle on things, and right at the moment, I must admit until I see the 1/2 yearly results I'm on somewhat shaky ground  

I've been burnt before catching falling knives when brokers are saying buy... I don't trust broker recos anymore at all, in fact sometimes I tend to do the opposite to what they are suggesting!!  so based on that maybe I should reconsider!!!! 

Tony.


----------



## speves (15 January 2007)

5% gain on fairly good volume and finished strong today.  By no means confirmation of a turn around but a good result nontheless; tomoro be interesting!!


----------



## reece55 (15 January 2007)

Agreed Speeves - had a look at this one at close and it looked quite strong. If it can get to 1.40 on high vol, recovery may be on the cards. Good luck to all long term holders here - most oil stocks were up today so hopefully there will be a turnaround.

Cheers


----------



## britishcarfreak (15 January 2007)

Two strong days after testing a low..  do others see this as a turnaround?  I tend to agree it looks strong.  I guess I would have bought today if I had spare cash.  

I guess seeing as we want healthy discussion I must raise that as much as it looks like a turnaround what's the estimate on the upside?  From my limited understanding of their current situation I would have thought it would be a lot of effort to push to $2 like the good old days of late 2005 when I sold out.

I'll probably be forced to eat my words but I would think that there are other stocks getting coverage on this forum that have better upside to go with.

Still I agree that you've identified a pretty solid looking buy point and it appears good value.


----------



## reece55 (15 January 2007)

Brittishcarfreak
Whilst it was a good test of the lows today, I personally wouldn't be looking at going long until say 1.50 was broken and thereby moving the stock out of the downtrend its been in for some time. Plus I agree for someone with a short time frame, there are better opportunities available. But those with a value long term hold mentality may find something they like here and best of luck to them.

Cheers


----------



## wintermute (15 January 2007)

yeah I think $2.00 in the medium term (6 months) is a bit of an ask... I'm thinking maybe 1.75 by June is doable but is going to depend on the 1/2 yearly report.... This is only based on production though... they have a lot of exploration over the next 12 months, so if they have any major increases in reserves as a result of that, then there should be added upside one would think.

Tony.


----------



## Bush Trader (16 January 2007)

Tomahawk said:
			
		

> I am just hoping Sugarloaf comes in. If that doesn't move the share price then I will sell all my other stocks and bet the farm on ARQ.





G'Day Tomahawk

As you are an experienced oil stock follower, are you able to do a similar valuation for ARQ, as you did previously with GGP?

PS:If you do own a farm (my area of expertise), you would know that at the momement it is very difficult to free up some working capital in order to do any sort of punting. I wouldn't think that too many bookies would let you use the farm as security either for a bet like that. Unfortunately, I also think most margin lenders would take a similar view at the moment.

Cheers


----------



## wintermute (16 January 2007)

Anyone else noticed that every time ARQ makes an announcement about the Canning basin the sp takes a dive!!!  Seems that the market isn't impressed with them doing any exploration in this area...

Tony.


----------



## doctorj (16 January 2007)

I wonder why?  It seems to be a reasonably prospective area near to infrastructure.  Maybe they're switching into more highly leveraged partners in the block?


----------



## wintermute (16 January 2007)

could be just coincidence, I just looked at the 1 day 5 minute chart and the main drop is about an hour after the announcement, and it had cooled off a little before that.

But I'm pretty sure I've seen it do similar in the past....  Only thing I can think of is that people are concerned about them taking over what might be regarded as "others explorers rejects"...  ARQ seem pretty positive about this basin though, and they have done very well in the Perth Basin, so I figure they know what they are doing and I'll trust their judgement  

Tony.


----------



## Dukey (18 January 2007)

The ADI (Adelphi)  factor aslo appears to be being ignored by the market.
ADI has gone from below 40c to 95+c since Sept 06. with more gains looking likely - and yet there is no flow on to ARQ - the major shareholder... whats with that?  ... Beats me! 

- Holding both ARQ and ADI


----------



## speves (28 January 2007)

I'm not much of a Tech Analyst when it comes to charts, but does ARQ look like it's coming off a "Double Bottom". 

Too early to call perhaps?


----------



## reece55 (28 January 2007)

Speeves - It's a little early to call yet, but the price action on 23 Jan 07 in candlestick charting is referred to as a doji and could signal a change in trend. The large volume additionally indicates significant activity. The days following have seen it bounce back, but this may just be to do with the positive movement in the price of oil. But as I have said before, it's making lower highs and higher lows, indicating a bearish stock (however we have discussed your reason for a long position here in the past). I would still wait for about 1.45 to be taken out before thinking about a long position.

Cheers


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM (28 January 2007)

- sugarloaf ( 32%ADI held by ARQ)- news soon 
anaylts value 70c-80c to ARQ if SL is 800BCF
 Dongara 36&37 both now look likly to add to ARQ's  bottom line.
then onto more drilling Yemen ,Canning basin,perth basin
 1.30   it's a no-brainer at these low levels 
 $2 isn't as faraway as you may think not with the big SUGAR on the horizon  

Jbmurc-long ARQ


----------



## nioka (28 January 2007)

JBMMMMMMMMMM said:
			
		

> - sugarloaf ( 32%ADI held by ARQ)- news soon
> anaylts value 70c-80c to ARQ if SL is 800BCF
> Dongara 36&37 both now look likly to add to ARQ's  bottom line.
> then onto more drilling Yemen ,Canning basin,perth basin
> ...



If the only reason to hold ARQ is sugarloaf then sell ARQ and buy ADI or AUT. I sold most of my ARQ ( at a much better price than they are now) and put the funds into ADI ( at av price 37c at the time). The rest of my ARQ will be sold this week. The market doesn't seem to like the Canning basin !!!


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM (29 January 2007)

Na hold a long CFD in ARQ some 60,000 1.31av not only for SL but Yemen,Perth basin,Canning,NT,SL takeover exp.
hold-EKA EKAO for higher exposure to SL
also held ADI paid 36c sold recently for 91c investing profit into eka  
Buying up PPP as well


----------



## speves (1 February 2007)

I am new to the TA scene but is the MACD showing a bullish signal for ARQ in this chart.


----------



## cicak_kupang (5 February 2007)

God volumes for the first 45min of trade this am.  330164 shares on the board already. Lets hope there is a turn around starting to happen for ARQ, and that its back in favour with investors.

Dongara 37 should just about be finished, just waiting for the announcement there........


----------



## speves (5 February 2007)

i am a great believer in ARQs immenent recovery, it has been oversold with the oil price drop and at it's current price it's well undervalued.  Consistently reporting succesful drilling results and pretty good quarterly report just released.

The chart tells the recovery story IMO....MACD and RSI


----------



## britishcarfreak (6 February 2007)

I agree with you.  It looks set to go.  I've got some skin in the game now too as I entered today.  I held these guys a while ago when they were averaging $2.  Perhaps we will see some strength come back.  It looks like we'll have trouble crossing the $1.50 mark as there was a downturn there last time.


----------



## speves (15 February 2007)

Anyone else noticed the direct (inverse) corrolation between ARQ and ADI.  These stocks are linked thru ARQ's 33% holding of ADI but I can't help noticing another link that when one goes up the other goes down and vice versa..  Note the drop in ARQ in mid Nov, a similar rise in ADI at exactley the same time. In mid Jan ADI started to loose ground whilst ARQ started it's gain.....uncanny!!

...just an interesting observation...for what it's worth.....guess I must have too much time on my hands.


----------



## britishcarfreak (21 February 2007)

This has started to form a ceiling at around $1.39/$1.40.  Today it's dropped back.  Either we're seeing a pull back from the ceiling and we'll go sideways for a week or so - OR - it's a temporary glitch and we'll be back off to 1.40 and hopefully through.  

Anyone else think this is a good time to buy?


----------



## LifeisShort (21 February 2007)

britishcarfreak said:
			
		

> This has started to form a ceiling at around $1.39/$1.40.  Today it's dropped back.  Either we're seeing a pull back from the ceiling and we'll go sideways for a week or so - OR - it's a temporary glitch and we'll be back off to 1.40 and hopefully through.
> 
> Anyone else think this is a good time to buy?




When they start drilling the canning basin and have some drilling success otherwise a barren spell


----------



## cicak_kupang (21 February 2007)

Todays pull back maybe due to ADI's Sugarlaof announcement, which really is not as bad as it first appears, see ADI thread for details.  Investors may also be holding off abit as the First half report is due tue 27th, just a bit of anxiousness there maybe.  However, Reeb 1 must be due to spud soon in Yemen, that looks good im my eyes, and people may also be trying to size up what the heavy canning basin exploration programme really means.  With as much exploration going on as there is, there's gotta be some good.......?  With good first half figures, a good result from Reeb and Al Magrabah, would surely boost confidence in this stock just in time to start the canning....
Go get 'em i say........


----------



## Dutchy3 (15 April 2007)

This has run out of room ...

Expect a drop through 1.25, which would have the potential to be quite savage or not even trade at 1.25 again before a jolly good run up .... waiting


----------



## wintermute (15 April 2007)

I guess it depends on what one reads into the chart... 

A look at this chart to me would say it could go either way  






Considering how much explporation ARQ has coming up and that it is widely claimed to be undervalued at the current sp, I'm not thinking a crash down through $1.25 is likely... I was thinking we would see $1.20 touched briefly before a trend reversal, but then again maybe not... 

I hold and I'm down... so take this with a grain of salt  

Tony.


----------



## cicak_kupang (16 April 2007)

Just looking at the volume gragh above, there has been a steady consolidation of volume over the last 3 months, and with the symmetrical triangle formation off the sp, it could be investors priming themselfs for the up comming exploration programme, however sym triangle formations are a 50/ 50 possibility ineither direction.  Im holding....


----------



## Ken (24 April 2007)

Anyone read arq's latest announcement?

2008 production set to increase by 125% with a new acquistion.

Bigger market cap I guess.

Was this expected?

Any downside for shareholders share price wise?

Looks positive to the naked eye.


----------



## Dukey (25 April 2007)

Sounds nice to me.  and quite unexpected really, though we knew they had no debt.
>> Good increase in reserves (2p=300%+!) and production. Plus some more exploration possibilities to add to Yemen, and Nth WA. etc. 
Have been holding for a long time always thinking something good has to happen with ARQ eventually - thought it would come via ADI  - but maybe this will give the SP the kick along so badly needed for so long.  Certainly hope so  .....


----------



## Ken (25 April 2007)

Its hard to know how significant the announcement is.  Shares have risen heavily on worse news.

Looks very positive, hope share price is rewarded.


----------



## cicak_kupang (25 April 2007)

I think this  is awesome, i cant see how this can be bad news at all.  Quote from the arq web site announcement "The Acquisition will transform ARC into one of Australia’s leading listed oil and gas companies ". Now thats impressive!
It sounds not too shabby to me.  Cant wait to see if how the investor briefing goes tomorrow at 11 am.  Will we see a trading halt in the morning?


----------



## Ken (25 April 2007)

I hold 2000 shares in this, was part of my long term group.

I might add to it tomorrow if its around the 1.30 mark still.


----------



## Dukey (26 April 2007)

Up 7% so far today with good volume - seems we weren`t the only ones who liked the news!!  Finally - maybe - I can stop worrying about ARQ for a while!!


----------



## resourceboom (27 April 2007)

It sounds like ARC have more potential acquisitions planned, especially if the Wandoo field is not able to be purchased.  I think this is the positive news that has been needed to stop the bleeding in the SP.


----------



## Ken (6 May 2007)

Very little talk about arq, considering they have a share placement going on.

My thinking on these share placements is that the big fish try and keep the share price down, so they get the shares a lot cheaper.

At the moment i think the issue of new shares will be at around $1.29.


Margin loan on ARQ may provide some quick profits if you play this one right.


----------



## quarky (6 May 2007)

I bought ARQ at $1.75 about 10months ago.
The downward slide continued, and i began losing 4 figures.

The loss became 5-figures.

I was upset.

I'm trying to sell this now (@ $1.45 but with no buyers in the last few days), and cut my losses...because it was disappointing, when it showed promise.

I hope tomorrow shows the light about what's to happen.

Then, I'll dispose of ARQ and look at BMN (Bannerman) or AUZ (Australian Mines), as my mining/energy stock in my portfolio.


----------



## Ken (7 May 2007)

Its funny how we like to dispose of stocks for there lack of peformance in the past. Telstra prime example. T3 has been a great return thus far.

When really we should be looking at the future.

All things look good for ARQ.

Every stock does have its moment.


----------



## Logique (7 May 2007)

quarky,
depends on your own situation and style of course, but please think about it carefully, as Ken suggested. 1.25 has been strong and tested support.


----------



## quarky (8 May 2007)

Logique said:


> quarky,
> depends on your own situation and style of course, but please think about it carefully, as Ken suggested. 1.25 has been strong and tested support.




well, the thing is, i put in a lot of money and it was tied up for 10months, while i watched other shares have returns of about 20 - 40%.
so, this frustrated me.  i couldn't pull out and incur a 5-figure loss.

in fact, i bought a significant amount at $1.38 in Feb. to try and prop my shares up but it took too long.  

but now, since it's creeping up, i was still going to tolerate my losses and put it into something else...'cos i see other stocks having the potential to make gains, which i hope to offset with the tax return come July.


it's just that, financially i was tied for so long...that it would have been a sale out of frustration.  i watched other shares (eg. CSL, MBL,) go nuts, while i looked at my money lose more than 30%. lost potential to make money.

anyway, i'll keep an eye on it.

thanks for your encouragement peeps.


----------



## Agentm (8 May 2007)

arq is being shorted, and for some time now..

i held arq, and saw them fly to amazing heights, then get pulled down for an extensive time, so i bailed.

quarky, keep in mind the ADI factor, they may well hold a position in SL that will bring some real value to ARQ.. 

happy investing


----------



## quarky (8 May 2007)

Agentm said:


> arq is being shorted, and for some time now..
> 
> i held arq, and saw them fly to amazing heights, then get pulled down for an extensive time, so i bailed.
> 
> ...




*Agentm*,
by ADI, do you mean 'Adelphi Energy'? and SL means "Sri Lanka"?
(i'm not so clued up on the ASX jargon!...and still learning. : )

well, ARQ is at $1.48 so it's put a smile on a little.


----------



## cicak_kupang (8 May 2007)

Fantastic to see ARQ up to a 6 month high today, and above the 210  day MA. Would be nice to see the momentum keep going, but i guess there will be profit taking at some point, and maybe a new upper resistance found.  Happy for today.....


----------



## Agentm (8 May 2007)

quarky

arq holds 30% in a company called adi, adelphi energy.

sl is sugarloaf, in recent weeks adi has been very bullish on a gas discovery at sugarloaf, i was suggesting perhaps some upside to arq is on the cards as ADI are constantly updating and upgrading the size of the find and still maintaining their revised figures are possibly also way under the mark.. after leasing 80 square kilometers of prime texas land and still going after more, the play is looking very much like 100's of bcf and potentially tcf..  

if you pull up the shorters list on the asx you can see how much arq is being shorted,, so there are real reasons for downward pressure on the sp.. but my belief is that arq is ultimately going to be a very attractive stock in the near term and with production increasing and new fields being explored, any new discoveries are going to bring significant strength to the sp..

i dont hold this share, sold out and went elsewhere short term,,, but i have followed this comapny closely for many years and invested at a very different phase to today..


----------



## wintermute (8 May 2007)

Hi Quarky, I can understand your frustration, but if you have held this long you might regret selling out at break even (or somewhat below)... I just went over break even... that was at $1.47 after I sold the parcel I bought at 2.22 for 1.31  (I bought the same amount at 1.29 during the march correction and then sold when it hit $1.31 cause I got jittery about it).  actually if I consider that loss I'm probably not at break even quite yet...

It is a quite common mistake, people don't sell when they should, hold on, and when it finally gets back to break even sell out, only to see it rise to much greater heights.. I've done it as I'm sure many others have... The way I look at it, if I've held on because I believed in the company (rather than because I couldn't stand to take a loss, which I have done when I didn't see there was any other sensible option), why would I sell out when it is going up, basically validating the reason I held in the first place?? 

Anyway that's just my personal view.  If I'd have sold ARQ last time it was at 1.75 (and I was in profit) and then bought something that was going up (which it may not have) and then bought ARQ at the bottom, THEN I would probably be better off now... but the thing is I didn't  so who knows what might have happened!!  I'm just happy that my patience seems to be paying off now, and I'm happy to wait and see it pay off even more 

Tony.


----------



## quarky (9 May 2007)

wintermute said:


> Hi Quarky, I can understand your frustration, but if you have held this long you might regret selling out at break even (or somewhat below)... I just went over break even... that was at $1.47 after I sold the parcel I bought at 2.22 for 1.31  (I bought the same amount at 1.29 during the march correction and then sold when it hit $1.31 cause I got jittery about it).  actually if I consider that loss I'm probably not at break even quite yet...




yeah, ARQ was one of the companies that i had 'believed' in.
i saw so many stocks do well, considering i put in most of money on ARQ...and it was just disappointing.
in the same time frame MBL and BHP went up ridiculous amounts, as an example.

besides ARQ didn't even pay dividends, so i had this financial noose around me for almost a year now.

anyway, i sold the portion of ARQ @ 1.48 that i had bought 3 months ago (1.38).
waiting until it hits around 1.55 or thereabouts, and i'll sell my majority of 
ARQ buoght at 1.75, ten mths ago
declare the capital loss for this financial year.
not buy stocks for a while...because i heard somewhere some chinese fortune teller saying the market will crash in 'o7  ....the power of the 07s (1997, 2007...)

see what happens in about 25mins. when ASX opens.


----------



## Ken (9 May 2007)

Do we expect a price rise or fall from this trading halt?

I suspect the price was pushed up with shareholders trying to get a stake in cheaper shares in the capital raising.  So I wouldnt be surprised if there was a pull back.


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## quarky (9 May 2007)

ARC's $380m Wandoo acquisition plans stymied by Vermillion 
9-May-07 by Andrew Hobbs

West Perth-based petroleum explorer ARC Energy Ltd's plans to acquire the Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd Australian portfolio for $380 million have suffered a setback, with Canada-based Vermillion Oil & Gas exercising its pre-emptive rights to a major asset.

Vermillion held a pre-emptive right to Wandoo's 40 per cent stake in the Wandoo oil field, in the offshore Carnarvon Basin, and will now acquire that right under the same terms. 

The total cost of the acquisition will now be, according to ARC, around $229 million, down around $151 million on its previous announcement.


The full text of a company announcement is pasted below

ARC Energy Limited (ASX:ARQ) announces that it has been notified that Vermilion Oil & Gas ("Vermilion") has exercised its pre-emptive right to purchase Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd's ("WPP") 40% interest in the Wandoo Oilfield. This pre-emption has been made under the terms of the joint operating agreement governing WPP's interest in permit WA-14-L, the permit that contains the Wandoo Oilfield. Vermilion will now purchase the Wandoo Oilfield on the same commercial terms as agreed between ARC and WPP.

As a result of this pre-emption, the Wandoo Oilfield will be excluded from the assets ARC has previously announced that it willacquire from WPP. ARC will proceed with the acquisition from WPP of WPP's interests in the BassGas and Cliff Head fields, together with associated exploration acreage,1 on the same terms as previously agreed and announced to the market.

The revised total consideration for the Acquisition is US$189.6 million as at the effective date of 1 January 2007. The net amount payable by ARC on completion of the transaction is now expected to be approximately US$180.6 million. The Acquisition remains competitively priced, with the revised total consideration for the Acquisition price representing a 2P reserves value of US$14.93 per boe3. This compares favourably with recent transactions in the E&P sector, which have averaged US$17.95/boe4 on a 2P basis.

The Acquisition of BassGas and Cliff Head will substantially increase ARC's oil and gas production and reserves. ARC's net 2Preserves will increase by 190% from 6.7 to 19.4 million barrels of oil equivalent ("mmboe").5 Net FY2008 production is forecast to increase by 72% from 1.9 to 3.2 mmboe.

Mr Eric Streitberg, Managing Director of ARC, said:
"While we are disappointed not to be able to acquire the Wandoo Oilfield interest, the fact that Vermilion chose to exercise their pre-emptive right vindicates our assessment of the value of the asset. We applied the same rigour to our assessment of the Cliff Head and BassGas assets and are confident that we are acquiring a suite of high quality assets at an attractive price. The revised transaction is extremely positive for ARC shareholders and, importantly, gives the Company the flexibility and financial reserves to take advantage of other opportunities we identify."

Acquisition Funding

As a consequence of the reduced size of the Acquisition consideration, ARC now proposes to fund the Acquisition via:

a placement of approximately 28% of its issued capital to institutional and sophisticated retail investors to raise A$90 million to A$100 million ("Placement");
a share purchase plan open to all ARC shareholders, intended to be underwritten by Macquarie Bank up to A$25 million ("SPP"); and
a senior debt facility with BOS International for the balance of the acquisition funding.
ARC now intends to complete the equity raising and be ready to draw down on the senior debt facility prior to completion of theAcquisition, removing the need for the previously announced bridge financing.

The Placement will be conducted by way of a bookbuild on Wednesday, 9 May 2007 and is expected to comprise two equal tranches:

Tranche 1 - an unconditional tranche equal to ARC's available 15% placement capacity; and
Tranche 2 - a conditional tranche, which will be subject to approval at an EGM of ARC shareholders, expected to be held in June 2007.
In recognition of the fact that only institutional and sophisticated retail investors will be eligible to participate in the Placement, ARC is undertaking the SPP under which each ARC shareholder will be able to apply for up to A$5,000 worth of shares at an attractive price.

Further details of the EGM and SPP, including pricing and application forms, will be sent to shareholders shortly.


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## resourceboom (16 May 2007)

From latest "Relief Under Section 708A(5)(e) of the Corporations Act" Announcement:

ARC has today become aware of preliminary results from the Oil Search Limited
operated Al Magrabah -1 exploration well, indicating the primary target to be low to prognosis and without significant hydrocarbons indications. ARC would not ordinarily release this information at this stage because it is insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure. ARC will make a further announcement once it has received further details on the results of the drilling program.


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## Ken (23 May 2007)

Any holders looking  to take up the minimum $5000 worth of new shares that will be available?

Has ARQ turned the corner???

Up to $1.535 today....

Appears to have broken its downward trend but I am no chartist.

I find the volume most interesting in all this. 

There is more buying than selling.


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## cicak_kupang (23 May 2007)

Ken said:


> Any holders looking  to take up the minimum $5000 worth of new shares that will be available?
> 
> Has ARQ turned the corner???
> 
> ...




Hi Ken, For me it hasnt yet turned the  corner, maybe 1/2 way there.  Sure is moving in the write directon though, and yes, heaps more interest in this stock now, with volumes quiet often in the hi 1 mill to 2 mill ea day. since the wandoo takeover it has seemed to have awakened.  I will wait till the 1.60 barrier has been reached before i feel 100% confident that it has turned the corner. Very happy all the same.


----------



## Ken (23 May 2007)

Well its hard to say, because all the oil stocks have fired up lately....

BPT looks to be back in again also.  Smart Investor mag has it as the stock to watch in 2008....


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## Logique (24 May 2007)

> Any holders looking to take up the minimum $5000 worth of new shares that will be available?
> 
> Has ARQ turned the corner???



Well it's had false starts before, let's wait and see on that one. Taking them up on the share offer, absolutely.


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## Ken (24 May 2007)

Heres a scenario:

I currently hold ARQ shares.  I purchased them for $1.30 last month.

I purchased 2000 arq shares @ $1.30.  I have made a small paper profit to date of aroud $400.

I am eligible to apply for more  shares through the placement at $1.30.

Can i sell my current shares on market at $1.54, and then apply for the new ones at $1.30?

The prospectus says that you are eligible to participate in the SPP if you were registered as a a holder of fully paid ordinary shares in the company on the record date Thursday 17th of may!  Now I believe I was definitely registered.

So what is stopping me from selling and then just applying for new shares?

Or do i have to own shares now.... or just when the record date was?

Surely they cant keep track of all the shares post record date, as that was the purpose of the record date???

I was just thinking it would be a way for me to buy in at $1.30 then sell at $1.54 and then I can buy back in through the plan at $1.30 then hopefully sell around $1.50 again, and keep some for long term.


----------



## Logique (25 May 2007)

Ken,
my first thoughts (please somebody correct me if I'm wrong),

are that having held at the record date, you may now sell your existing holding without forgoing the opportunity in the ensuing placement. There is a known quantity of company shares on issue, regardless of who owns them. 

Bear in mind the CGT liability incurred in selling before 12 mths. Also that what you would be selling are shares ex-entitlement in the placement.

And if applying for new shares in the placement, how many are you entitled to, or likely to get, in this process? Will it be as many as you want. A lot depends on the nature of, and any implied entitlement within the placement. Applying for shares is not necessarily a guarantee of getting them.

Personally I'm waiting to see fuller detail when the formal notification to shareholders arrives from the company.


----------



## Ken (25 May 2007)

Response from company:

You are certainly able to sell your shares on market at any time.

Please note that Share Purchase Plan offer has been mailed out to all eligible shareholders (i.e. those who appeared on our Share Register at 5:00pm on 17th May, 2007 and who have a postal address, as recorded on the Share Register at this date, in Australia or New Zealand only).  Therefore, providing you meet the criteria above, you should have already received the brochure and form enabling you to participate.  Please do let me know if this is not the case, and I will investigate further for you.

If you have received the offer documents and would like to participate, there is nothing preventing you from selling your existing shares prior to this.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me again, should you have any further questions.


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## Logique (27 May 2007)

Ken,
our thoughts are confirmed, as the SPP documents reveal. 

If you received the documents, you are eligible, on non renounceable basis. You can apply for one of: $1k worth, $3k worth, or $5k worth, at notional $1.30 per share. However oversubscription, in combination with share price movement, may lead to scale back of allotments, of currently unknown magnitude.

I'll be applying for the max and hoping for no scale backs.


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## Ken (27 May 2007)

Well I only had 2000 shares to begin with.

So in the event of a scale back I will receive more than 2000.

So I am pretty happy.

This is a 5 year stock for me.


----------



## Lachlan6 (27 May 2007)

Bit of technical side. (ARQ) looks like a reversal is under way. Weekly has just recently bounced nicely off the 50% fibonacci from all time lows and all time highs, coinciding with a nice little double bottom off the fibonacci level. Its next test will be fibonacci level of $1.6, however if this is cleared, it should test all time highs again. All bets are off if it falls through $1.20.


----------



## Logique (28 May 2007)

Technically, it does appear to have broken out of a 17 month downtrend Lachlan6. One thing I'd add to your analysis is that increased volumes are validating the current uptrend. 

On the potential down side, is the unknown dilutive effect of extra shares on issue through placement and SPP. 

Then again, thinking about peak oil, the long term trend for oil and gas prices can only be up, and this acquisition of Wandoo Petroleum increases ARC's diversity and availability of potential reserves.


----------



## Sean K (6 June 2007)

Just saw in the Fin this morning that a recent report on ARQ by Peter Strachan has described the Valentine structure as potentially company transforming prospect, hosting up to 1 trillion cubic feet of gas and 200 mbo.

Having a look at the report itself, it looks like there's potentially quite a bit of upside for Arc as well as the other partners in the projects. 

Looks to be more upside for Empire and Emerald by these figures though. Over 3000%! 

Will be interesting to see how the drilling goes. At least. 

http://www.far.com.au/files/research/StockAnalysis FAR Special Issue May 3rd 2007.pdf


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## cicak_kupang (8 June 2007)

Oil Search reports that as at 0600 Yemen time (+2 hrs GMT) on 6 June
2007,* the Al Magrabah-1 well was at a depth of 3,440 metres and
preparing to log section.* Drilling progress for the week was 468 metres.
*During the week oil and gas shows were recorded *while drilling the Lower
Nayfa section. The significance of these shows will be evaluated during
the next wireline logging programme.
Al Magrabah-1 is located in Block 35, onshore Yemen, approximately 55
kilometres north east of the Nabrajah field. The primary target is the
Qishn Clastics with secondary targets in the fractured/karstified Saar and
Nayfa formations, Kuhlan sandstone/Weathered Basement, and fractured
metamorphic basement*.The planned total depth of the well is 3,039
metres* MD.[/COLOR]The participants in Block 35 are:
Oil Search 32.5% (operator)*
Virgin Resources 37.5%
ARC Energy 15.0%
MND 10.0%
The Yemen Company 5.0%
Total 100%
* Working interest. The Yemen Company is carried by the other JV participants.

Cant wiat to see these wire logs, as they have drilled about 400 m deeper than they had planned, thats substantially deeper than planned.  oil and gas shows where recorded.....mmmmmm, pay dirt???


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## Logique (12 June 2007)

Up another lazy 5.8% today. Sure hope they don't scale me back in the SPP. Might take a look at Empire and Emerald, thanks Kennas.



> During the week oil and gas shows were recorded while drilling the Lower
> Nayfa section. The significance of these shows will be evaluated during
> the next wireline logging programme.



15% interest in Block 35 in Yemen. Nice one cicak_kupang, let's not count our chickens though.


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## Ken (12 June 2007)

I dare say people will be rushing in there forms for ARQ energy seeing as it is almost a 25% higher than $1.30 issue price.

I know i applied for the maximum.  you'd be pretty stiff, if you owned an oil and gas producer and it was struggling, feel for the PSA holders.


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## Tomahawk (13 June 2007)

Closed at 174 today  Have held ARQ for a long time and have been looking at a loss for quite a while. Am now glad to that I have held on to my shares 

Two gas discoveries and two oil discoveries the last several weeks. Company suggests at least 2 of them (Frankland and Dunborough) will be commercial.

Drakea sidetrack results due this week or early next week. Hoping it's good coz 6-7 million barrels recoverable would be worth 30-35 cents per share to ARQ. 

So many things to look forward to:
Yemen results dues soon
Stokes Bay Pt Torment in July
Valentines in July (multibagger factor!)

This is such an exciting time to be holding ARQ


----------



## Ken (13 June 2007)

Would ARQ be classed as a potential blue chip share, or just a small cap?

It seems above speculative. With the capital raising I would think it will put it further up on the asx 200, but then again other share prices have been rocketing.

Gas sector has had some good gains, and i am glad i stuck with westpacs recommendtions on this.


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## Tomahawk (13 June 2007)

I would think that they probably still fall into the small cap category with slightly less than half a billion dollars market cap. Hopefully we will see ARQ joining the ranks of the mid caps with > 1 billion market cap like BPT, ROC, AWE soon.

Wilson's report from the ARC site is worth reading
http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Wilson%20HTM%2018%20May%202006.pdf

"Post Acquisition Valuation
Our simulation based DCF model estimates an expected (i.e. mean) Net Asset
Value of $ 2.10 /diluted share for ARQ post the Wandoo Petroleum acquisition.
We estimate an unrisked value of $ 8.50 /diluted share. The unrisked value is a
simple measure, indicating the potential upside from 100 % exploration success.
The probability of this occurring is low, as is the probability of 0 % success. A better
estimate of realistic upside potential can be derived from simulation results. We
estimate a 1 in 10 chance of the share price exceeding $ 3.40 /diluted share.
The Monte Carlo simulation shows a bi-modal share price distribution, with a range
of outcomes based on production from existing assets at the lower end, and a range
of outcomes at a higher level, incorporating exploration success.
Our 12 month price target of $2.00 /diluted share represents a 10 % discount to the
12 month roll-forward of the current valuation. This discount results from our view
that the market is unlikely to assign a risk adjusted valuation to ARQ’s exploration
portfolio until Canning Basin and Yemen discoveries have occurred, and hence we
have only included 50 % of the risk adjusted exploration value in our price target."


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## cicak_kupang (13 June 2007)

Tomahawk said:


> Closed at 174 today  Have held ARQ for a long time and have been looking at a loss for quite a while. Am now glad to that I have held on to my shares
> 
> Two gas discoveries and two oil discoveries the last several weeks. Company suggests at least 2 of them (Frankland and Dunborough) will be commercial.
> 
> ...




Im in pretty much the same situation too Tomahawk, have held it for a long time, and at a loss. some would say ive missed out on other gains with having my dosh tied up at a loss for so long, but ive always had a good feeling with ARQ.  Its a well managed company, good production, good management, excellent exploration an the horizon.  And its a company that really want to go places, and i feel it is starting to do so, what with the Wandoo take over and the alliences, and massive exploration thats in the pipe lines. Im really keen to see how the Yemen results come through.  they palnned td for this well at 3039m, but drilled to 3440m?.  You dont drill THAT much further is you havent a reason...right??????   There are some companys that have foung oil colums up to 900m in depth in the fractured basement, that this same drill is targeting.  Im not counting my chickens yet, but i'd be crazy happy with even a 50m oil pay zone. Anyway time will tell.  They where hoping to find 35mmbbls in this drill, but i cant remember what P estimates that was on.
Anyway, good to see ARQ sp moving in heavenly direction.


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## cicak_kupang (13 June 2007)

Just as an after thought, I wonder how many big fish will be watching ARQ's Yemen results and canning basin exploration results as a prelude as a take over target????????
I understand that several companys where eyeing ARQ for take over before the crappy 06 exploration that was full of dry wells......


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## Tomahawk (13 June 2007)

cicak_kupang said:


> Im really keen to see how the Yemen results come through.  they palnned td for this well at 3039m, but drilled to 3440m?.  You dont drill THAT much further is you havent a reason...right??????   There are some companys that have foung oil colums up to 900m in depth in the fractured basement, that this same drill is targeting.  Im not counting my chickens yet, but i'd be crazy happy with even a 50m oil pay zone. Anyway time will tell.  They where hoping to find 35mmbbls in this drill, but i cant remember what P estimates that was on.
> Anyway, good to see ARQ sp moving in heavenly direction.




Now you are getting me excited!
Had a look at a report on fractured basement reservoirs around the world
http://www.geoscience.co.uk/downloads/fracturedbasementver8.pdf

Found the part about Yemen interesting
"DNO have also had significant successes in onshore Block 43 in the Yemen. The Nabrajah
wells have primarily targeted both the Qishn Formation sandstone and the Kohlan Formation
dolomite, however significant hydrocarbons have also been discovered in the basement.
*Production tests carried out in the basement lithology flowed 5800 b/d of 38.6 API crude and
4162 Mscf/g of gas using an ESP. Following a pressure build-up test, flow was 2812 b/d of
41.9 API crude, and 3054 Mscf/d of gas with no pumping*. Oil is also being produced from
the basement in the neighbouring Blocks 10 and 14 (operated by TotalFinaElf and Nexen
respectively) (see DNO press-release,13/04/05)"


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## Tomahawk (13 June 2007)

Having said that, we probably shouldn't get carried away just yet. They could have drilled an extra 400m just simply because the basement was fractured and they decided to drill until solid basement was encountered. Also note that they only mention oil shows in the lower Nayfa section. One would have expected them to mention shows in the basement if there were any.

Either way, we will find out very soon I think. There has been an announcement every Thursday.... so expect one in the next 16 hours!


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## Tomahawk (14 June 2007)

Hmm... more waiting for Yemen. It seems they are still carrying out intermediate logging and will only drill into the basement after this. This well is definitely going to be a lot deeper than the planned 3090m.

Drakea news just out seems positive but doesn't tell us much other than elevated gas readings and oil shows, which I guess is a lot better than finding nothing at all


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## Tomahawk (15 June 2007)

Anyone else noticed the volume today? Highest I have seen for years if not the highest ever. 7,714,105 shares changed hands with big trades coming after market close. If not for the after market shenanigans, it would probably have closed at 180ish.

179 394,546 16:50 SXXT
179 2,416,469 16:28 SXXT
179 1,128,333 16:27 SXXT
179 579,844 16:27 SPXT


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## cicak_kupang (16 June 2007)

Yeah, massives volumes yesterday Tomahawk. Total vol for ARQ yesterday was 12,940,400, the only other volume that came close in the companys history was back on the 18/10/2001, when 12,316,300 shares for the day where traded.  Sourced from bigcharts.com

This is a snippet from the  Wilson report, it can be found on te ARQ site, dated 18 may:

Post Acquisition Valuation
Our simulation based DCF model estimates an expected (i.e. mean) Net Asset
Value of $ 2.10 /diluted share for ARQ post the Wandoo Petroleum acquisition.
We estimate an unrisked value of $ 8.50 /diluted share. The unrisked value is a
simple measure, indicating the potential upside from 100 % exploration success.
The probability of this occurring is low, as is the probability of 0 % success. A better
estimate of realistic upside potential can be derived from simulation results. *We
estimate a 1 in 10 chance of the share price exceeding $ 3.40 /diluted share*.
The Monte Carlo simulation shows a bi-modal share price distribution, with a range
of outcomes based on production from existing assets at the lower end, and a range
of outcomes at a higher level, incorporating exploration success.
Our 12 month price target of $2.00 /diluted share represents a 10 % discount to the
12 month roll-forward of the current valuation. This discount results from our view
that the market is unlikely to assign a risk adjusted valuation to ARQ’s exploration
portfolio until Canning Basin and Yemen discoveries have occurred, and hence we
have only included 50 % of the risk adjusted exploration value in our price target.

I think that the $3.40 per share is possible if any of the bigger drills pay of as listed bellow
1:  1 or both of the Yemen wells come through with the goods.
2:  Sugarloaf, via ADI in Texas...check out ADI thread in ASF.
3:  Valentine 1, first drill to be done in canning.  ARQ 33%, P10 est at 380-1000bcf and 19 mmbls.
4: yulleroo,canning basin.  Arq 100% P10 est at 332-900bcf and 17 mmbls.

With such large volumes yesterday at the current price, i feel the upward momentum of this share will continue, i was getting worried that it may had started running to far too quick, but now feel alot more composed.


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## Logique (17 June 2007)

You can blame me for a tiny part of that volume, on the Buy side. I nearly choked on the weeties when I saw that quoted unrisked value of $ 8.50 /diluted share. This was appropriately qualified fortunately, the unrisked value is the potential upside if they have 100 % exploration success. Possible, but likelihood indeterminate. 

Happy with the (lower) 12mth target, and with those four listed current exploration prospects for increase.


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## Dukey (25 June 2007)

Well my $5k SPP cheque has been cashed - just hoping they give me the full entitlement!! - what are the chances of that happening...??
Have been in ARQ for quite a while now - nice to see them finally get up and start running instead of plodding/stumbling. A very well run company I think - but the SP hasn't reflected that for  over a year.    But  the Wandoo t/o has really raised their profile and looking good from here... Those valuations look great.


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## Logique (25 June 2007)

You'll soon know Dukey,

Key SPP dates, indicative only:
- Offer closed 21 June
- Issue and quotation of shares under the SPP - 28 June 2007


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## Ken (25 June 2007)

Well i am keen to find out also.

I would expect the share price to fall for profit takers....

But not sure whether its the best thing to be doing considering its right before tax time....


I hope people have been lazy and forgotten to apply for shares. I reckon a scale back would have to be on the cards.

I owned 2000 shares at the time, but applied for $5000 worth so who knows.

Not counting my chickens....


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## wintermute (26 June 2007)

Well appendix 3B came out today and it is 26 million odd share that have been placed.  under the options of oversubsciption they said they would place up to 30% of the issued capital (that equates to 77 million odd shares) so I think we should have got our full entitlements  

I took the strategy of selling enough shares to give me $3000, and threw in an additional 2K to get the full $5k worth, bit of an each way bet, cashed in at a higher price with an (almost) guaranteed lower buy back price (assuming getting as many as I sold)... that way I took my profits before I even bought the shares 

I'm betting that there was no scale back  

Tony.


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## OK2 (28 June 2007)

received my 5k or 3846 of shares today. SP has dropped back a little but still 1k up on the issue. a nice reminder of why not to daytrade every stock!


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## Ken (29 June 2007)

ARQ needs to keep its upward momentum, very important I feel.

Would be really ugly if ARQ pulled back to $1.30.


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## Ken (2 July 2007)

Has the trend changed? I think a lot of fund managers have now gone short on ARQ from what I have researched.

Opinions?

 I am considering selling today.


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## Logique (3 July 2007)

As things stand it's hard to supply anything but an opinion Ken. I considered what you said, but decided to hold on. The price is doing it's best to stabilize around 1.53, the volumes being traded are nothing out of the ordinary, perhaps even falling away a little. 

I'm seeing the recent price relaxation as some near term momentum exhaustion, combined with some post SPP profit taking.  Until or unless the price action proves me wrong, I don't see that the trend is broken yet.

Oil back over USD71 a barrel last night, so that's the clincher for me.


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## Logique (4 July 2007)

Posting as a trial of the administrators chart posting instructions. Chart legend is self-explanatory, traders would be looking for consolidation from the rapid down leg, however ST trading isn't my approach to holding this stock.


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## Logique (11 July 2007)

Hope you're still with it Ken. Terrific announcements this morning. The partnership with Alcoa is a great move, a $billion in potential value according to the MD in the open briefing. The MD also said the Wandoo acquisition has turned out well, with more expected potential than they originally thought.


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## Dukey (13 July 2007)

It's intriguing to me the performance of ARQ share price since the recent  spp - down from around $1.80 to low 1.50s.
And this despite improving outlooks for Canning; plus ADI's sugarloaf  finally starting to look the goods and todays announcement!!

I presume it's just a case of profit takers  after the spp - though I would expect  all those recent sellers may  regret it in down the track a ways. 
IMO ARQ is fundamentally looking the best it has for a long time. As an investor - not a 'trader' -  I expect to hold my ARQ spp shares for at least a year - barring some unforeseen catastrophe !!!!!


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## wintermute (13 July 2007)

even at $1.50 that is a 15% profit (or $750) on the $5000 placement.  You will always get people who go for the stag profit... it is possible a lot of small  purchases leading up to the cut off date were simply to get the right to apply for 5000 at 1.30..... with no interest in the company or it's prospects at all. 

I'm quite happy to sit back again, as I think the next 12 months should be a lot more pleasant than the last 

Tony.


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## Ken (13 July 2007)

At the cut off date  for the placement, the shares were around $1.42 I think from memory. So your theory that it pushed the share price up to $1..80 is a little bit off.

So when the buying was going on in the 1.60's and 1.70's it was for different reasons as the record date passed.


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## wintermute (15 July 2007)

Just checked and the sp opened at 1.50 on the record date (17th May) and from the graph it looks like it closed at 1.49.  It also peaked at close to 1.54 about a week before the entitilement date. 

There may have been others who did what I did and sold a portion of their holdings (before sending in the cheque)  to help fund the purchase of the entitlement. 

Tony.


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## cicak_kupang (19 July 2007)

Just wondering if anybody is able to tell me the significance of what a jet pump is and what it is used for in the testing part of a well, re the ARQ announcement on their yemen drill..

."Oil Search reports that as at 0600 hrs Yemen time (+2 hrs GMT) on 18
July 2007, a Drill Stem Test, DST#2, over the lower section of the Nayfa
Formation in the Al Magrabah-1 well was underway and awaiting delivery
of a jet pump."


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## cicak_kupang (6 August 2007)

Phew, im just a bit over this down turn of the ARQ sp, still, not good market condidtions......    Surely the share is over sold by now?
Lets hope interest from ADI with sugarloaf and the spudding of Valentine in the canning sparks some interest.


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## nioka (6 August 2007)

cicak_kupang said:


> Just wondering if anybody is able to tell me the significance of what a jet pump is




A jet pump usually works from the surface pumping liquid circling to the bottom of a well and returning. The return pipe is of greater diameter which creates a vacuum and allows the jet action to create a suction at that point drawing in fluid whuch is released at the top.
 Hope that makes sense and I have explained it correctly.


----------



## moneymajix (15 August 2007)

Hartley's report, 14 August

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys 14 Aug 07.pdf


See link for comparisons of players in the Canning basin.


Conclusions

The Canning Basin has received little attention from oil and gas companies over last few decades due to a
combination of perceived technical risk and a view that the Basin is too remote for discoveries to be commercial.
The tightening of the domestic gas supply market has changed this considerably. Hurdle sizes for commercial
discoveries are now lower, and the recent ARQ-Alcoa deal highlights the need for the Basin to be explored and
developed.
The Canning remains a prospective Basin and is likely to provide high value for companies willing to commit to
its exploration. It is one of the few Paleozoic petroleum systems in the world remaining relatively underexplored.
In our view this makes it prime real estate for oil and gas exploration and the ARQ-Alcoa deal gives greater
confidence in its future development. Of the companies with Canning Basin exposure, ARQ clearly has the
greatest leverage, with by far the dominant acreage holding. However, individual wells, such as Valentine-1,
highlight that there are opportunities for smaller players (such as FAR) to gain significantly from exploration in
the basin. Valentine-1 has potential to unlock significant value to its participants if successful. We think it will
mark the start of an active period of exploration in the Canning Basin.


----------



## moneymajix (22 August 2007)

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s2011552.htm

Companies vie for slice of Kimberley 
AM - Wednesday, 22 August , 2007 08:04:00
Reporter: David Weber

...

Arc Energy is looking at a massive area in the Kimberley. Arc's Managing Director is Eric Streitberg.

ERIC STREITBERG: Our estimates run from relatively small quantities up to trillions of cubic feet of gas, which will be enough to supply Perth for 10 or 15 years.

DAVID WEBER: It's a fairly expansive area, 75,000 square kilometres that Arc Energy will be looking at. Why hasn't this been done before? Why hasn't this resource been exploited before?

ERIC STREITBERG: Basically because of its remoteness and the lack of a market for gas reserves. That's changed dramatically in the last three or four years as the West Australian resources boom has kicked off and there's been enormous upsurge in demand for gas. So if we do find any gas, we can now sell it and sell it at a good price.

DAVID WEBER: Do you envisage drilling across a wide area of the north-west, then?

ERIC STREITBERG: We certainly do, it's a geological area called the Canning Basin, which basically runs east from the coast between Broome and Derby and goes inland for three or 400 kilometres and we'll certainly be exploring right across that area. It's a very large area and it's quite a task for us but we think that with the application of modern technology, we've got a pretty good shot at finding something.

DAVID WEBER: Mr Streitberg says any gas that's found is expected to come on stream in 2010 or 2011, just in time for the start up of some iron ore projects in the area.


----------



## moneymajix (6 September 2007)

At the RUI Good Oil Conference yesterday, Eric Streitberg (ARQ Managing Director), gave a presentation.

He was scheduled at 4.50pm. 

http://www.riuconferences.com.au/conferences/tgoc/forms/Programme.pdf


----------



## moneymajix (6 September 2007)

Announcement

Presentation by ARC Energy at the Good Oil Conference yesterday.



http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070906/pdf/314dpx1xvgg1n2.pdf


----------



## benwex (12 September 2007)

"gas sales agreement (GSA) with Alcoa Australia for the delivery of up to 500
petajoules of gas from future discoveries on ARC’s interests in the onshore Canning Basin has now been completed. ARC has now received the A$40 million prepayment from Alcoa. These funds will be used to accelerate ARC’s regional Canning Basin exploration program"

This is very incouraging for ARC and their partners..

benwex


----------



## Trader Paul (16 September 2007)

Hi folks,

ARQ ... expecting some positive news and a rally, as 
3 positive time cycles fall into place, on 18092007 ... 

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/8/arqupdate14092007-1227445.pdf

From previous significant aspects (Neptune retro cycles),
we can project an expected price on 31102007, at around
$1.53 (or possibly $1.71)... same as, on other previous 
Neptune stations, marked by the black dotted vertical lines.

have a great weekend

  paul



=====


----------



## doctorj (16 September 2007)

That coincides with some drilling the in the Valentine target formation.  I hope you're right Paul.  Too wireless for wirelines or DST.  More HC shows in the mud i guess.


----------



## Trader Paul (19 September 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ARQ ... expecting some positive news and a rally, as
> 3 positive time cycles fall into place, on 18092007 ...
> ...






Hi folks,

ARQ ..... nice spike comes in, right on TIME ... !~!

happy days

 paul

P.S. ..... holding ARQ



=====


----------



## cicak_kupang (27 September 2007)

Would have been nice for V1 to have found something, still not to worried as SB1 is 100% ARQ, V1 was 33% ARQ interest, both with similar estimates in P10 reseves.  Quiet obvious its better for ARQ to hit pay dirt in SB than V1.  Sound like promosing mud shows they encountered in the formation that SB will be targeting, while they where drilling V1.

Its comming crunch time for ARQ.  If SB is a flop then there will be a alot of non believers around for the  canning drilling programme.  It may be that Sugarkane via ADI will be ARQ's saviour......


----------



## doctorj (27 September 2007)

cicak_kupang said:


> Would have been nice for V1 to have found something, still not to worried as SB1 is 100% ARQ



Stokes Bay isn't 100% ARQ - PCL, EGO, EMR & FAR all have an interest.  ARQ's interest in SB is similar to their share of Valentine.



> V1 was 33% ARQ interest, both with similar estimates in P10 reseves.



Valentine p10 = (1091bcf gas & 19mill barrels of condensate) or (200mmbo)
Stokes Bay p10 = (158 bcf) or (10.3mmbo)



> Quiet obvious its better for ARQ to hit pay dirt in SB than V1.



 Nup.



> Sound like promosing mud shows they encountered in the formation that SB will be targeting, while they where drilling V1.



It's possible.  See this below from ARQ.


----------



## Trader Paul (18 October 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ARQ ... expecting some positive news and a rally, as
> 3 positive time cycles fall into place, on 18092007 ...
> ...






Hi folks,

ARQ ..... looking good, ahead of an expected strong finish to October 2007 ... 

happy days

 paul

P.S. ..... holding ARQ.



=====


----------



## wipz (18 October 2007)

Hi does anyone know when can we expect drilling results from Stokes Bay?  any links or references will do, cheers.
Arc did mention that the drill would take 15 days to complete, it commenced on the 3rd Oct, therefor tomorrow being the 18th an announcement should be made?  Now i think about it they did run into some trouble mentioned on the 11th so possibly expect some news mid next week?


----------



## blues (18 October 2007)

Spoke to Bob Berven from EMR yesterday and he said that there will be a report out today mid morning which should have the answers.


----------



## Trader Paul (22 October 2007)

Hi folks,

ARQ ..... AZA and ARC announce merger discussions ... 

happy days

 paul



=====


----------



## Stan 101 (22 October 2007)

Thanks, Paul... Yes, ARQ is now in a trading halt.

As for AZA, how are they looking?...I'm just starting to research them now.


----------



## nioka (22 October 2007)

The interesting part in this probable merger is will Anzon's intention to pay dividends rub off on ARQ or will the no dividends\invest in prospecting attitude of ARQ dominate after the merger. I sold out of ARQ because I believed that any profit they made would be spent on an increasing search for gushers until they eventually went the way of the dodo.


----------



## doctorj (22 October 2007)

Surely a small oil company like AZA/ARQ is better off not paying dividends from a shareholder's point of view?  What paying dividends says is that the company believes the individual investor can get a better return than they can - meaning either they aren't confident of their abilities or don't have enough interesting dirt to drill.  I have some ARQ, mainly for the oil prospectivity of the Southern Canning.  Perhaps the merger will give ARQ access to the capital they need to advance their drilling program?


----------



## nioka (22 October 2007)

doctorj said:


> Surely a small oil company like AZA/ARQ is better off not paying dividends from a shareholder's point of view?  What paying dividends says is that the company believes the individual investor can get a better return than they can - meaning either they aren't confident of their abilities or don't have enough interesting dirt to drill.  I have some ARQ, mainly for the oil prospectivity of the Southern Canning.  Perhaps the merger will give ARQ access to the capital they need to advance their drilling program?




Only if you only want long term growth and not investment income which has tax credits. Some of us, a lot of us in fact, need investment income. It may be OK if arq kept finding plenty of oil but they are only just keeping pace with declining productivity. They could end up worth zilch if they don't keep finding more oil and gas. The directors and staff get paid, shareholders are entitled to some payment too.
They could always have a dividend reinvestment plan for those that way inclined.


----------



## Flyer (24 October 2007)

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Anzon Australia Ltd. (AZA.AU) said Wednesday its board will unanimously approve a takeover bid from ARC Energy Ltd. (ARQ.AU). 

ARC is offering either 1.175 of its own shares for each Anzon share, valuing the company at A$708 million, or a combination of cash and shares, the companies said in a joint statement. 

"In the absence of a superior proposal, and subject to the independent expert concluding that the merger is in the best interests of Anzon shareholders, the Anzon board intends to recommend that Anzon shareholders vote in favor of the merger," the statement said.

That gives 5% premium to Aza holders who can choose to get either all cash, all shares or a bit of both.

Who is the winner here?


----------



## zander (25 October 2007)

found the comment by ES in the latest open briefing:

"We are
getting some very good early encouragement in the Canning Basin."

I guess we know more about tomorrow lunch time.


----------



## GREENS (25 October 2007)

Have been taking a closer look at ARC lately, the merger looks like it could create some real synergies and value for shareholders. The only thing holding me back at the moment is no proven discovery in the Canning Basin as yet, but maybe why it is worth jumping in for, looks highly prospective and has been largely untouched. Another benefit is that investors don’t seem to have priced in much of an exploration premium, which means that any medium sized, future discovery would push the SP northward. Will definately keep it on the watch list!!


----------



## lioninzion (25 October 2007)

As someone who has held a fairly large chunk (relative to my portfolio) of Anzon shares, I'm pleased the merger looks like going ahead. Anzon has been something of a white-knuckle ride this year - I bought in at $1.34, then a gas deal in Tasmania fell through, one of their two ships in Bass Strait got knocked around in a gale, and finally a shackling pin broke on their single pipeline. The share price fell below $1 at one point. Anzon have a courageous (in the Yes Minister sense of 'a courageous decision, Minister') little operation featuring one ship which acts as a rig and another ship which loads up with oil and trundles back and forth to Singapore. I was a bit unwise to load so much money into a stock which came unstuck (literally) when a single shackling pin broke. I don't know much about ARC but a merger will at least spread a bit of risk around.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 November 2007)

Todays news...

_The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 52 

Australian-listed Mineralogy is calling for a meeting of investors in ArcEnergy. Mineralogy is seeking a board revamp and to have Arc call off itstakeover of Anzon Energy. Clive Palmer, of Mineralogy, claims Arc should have consulted shareholders before agreeing to the Anzon acquisition. Recent purchases have pushed Mineralogy's shareholding in Arc above six per cent, and the group has signalled it intends to keep buying Arc stock until it has amassed a 10 per cent investment. Nexus Energy, which holds a 17.8 per cent interest in Anzon, is also reportedly opposed to the $A708 million takeover _

Hmmm. I hope this doesn't turn into a total *fracas* between duelling powerful shareholders..

AJ


----------



## nick2fish (13 November 2007)

whats the go with arq ?

Like why did EGO pullout of the deeper push of the Stokes drill then buyback in even though it sounded like hydrocarbon shows were negated by poor reservoir quality? SP seems to endorse another negative result

Where is the Century rig off to now as that piece of equipments pricey and needs to be kept drilling ?

Will arq quell this rebellion ?

Will arq share price ever reflect its true value?

In case you haven't already guessed I'm overweight in ARQ and any positive feedback would really help to curb my suicidal tendencies that are manifesting themselves of late (also am big on BHP)


----------



## doctorj (13 November 2007)

nick2fish said:


> Like why did EGO pullout of the deeper push of the Stokes drill then buyback in even though it sounded like hydrocarbon shows were negated by poor reservoir quality? SP seems to endorse another negative result



No idea why EGO did what it did - perhaps it didn't have the cash pay its share, but by pulling out it could participate by paying its (now higher) share out of future production?

I'm not sure what you mean by 'poor reservoir quality'. The way Nullara sucked up the mud, it appears the sands are both very permeable and porous. My understanding of it is that being shut in a for a few weeks should allow the trap to reach some sort of equalibrium, meaning if there is HC's down there they should make themselves known pretty quickly once the testing team gets up there. 1-2 days of flow max before we know.



nick2fish said:


> Where is the Century rig off to now as that piece of equipments pricey and needs to be kept drilling ?



The way I see it, they don't intend to test the Anderson sands for some time. With Century 18 away, I don't know how they'd set a plug. 

From what I understand Century was moved on as it wasn't needed to test Nullara and SB is in an area that is prone to flooding during the wet season. Leaving it there risked it being stuck for some time. Plus ARQ has a drilling program that is now a long way behind. 



nick2fish said:


> Will arq quell this rebellion ?



What's his name doesn't yet have enough shares to cause too much trouble. That said, I understand there's an arguement doing the rounds that they're seriously overpaying for AZA.



nick2fish said:


> In case you haven't already guessed I'm overweight in ARQ and any positive feedback would really help to curb my suicidal tendencies that are manifesting themselves of late (also am big on BHP)



That's never good. I personally would never hold a share that kept me awake at night.


----------



## Aussiejeff (13 November 2007)

nick2fish said:


> whats the go with arq ?
> 
> Like why did EGO pullout of the deeper push of the Stokes drill then buyback in even though it sounded like hydrocarbon shows were negated by poor reservoir quality? SP seems to endorse another negative result
> 
> ...




Hold onto your hat man.... the unwinding of carry trades overnight is likely going to hit oil stocks hard in the short term.

.....and stay positive,


Cheers

AJ


----------



## nick2fish (13 November 2007)

Thanks for the info ... yea I think the price is too much but its a bit like the Rio thing but on a much smaller scale. big is best and companies pay a premium to get there. I prefer with an oil spec like Arq that exploration success to drive expansion rather than expensive acquisitions. Anyway I'm pretty positive about the Canning Basin so hanging tough and am optimistic about long term share price growth in general. Thanks again guys


----------



## Trader Paul (26 November 2007)

Hi folks,

ARQ ... has 100% stake in the current Valhalla-1 well,
in Canning Basin ... no gas, but evaluating oil shows ... 

..... expecting a positive cycle to come into play here.

Updated ARQ chart, attached.

happy days

  paul



=====


----------



## bazollie (6 December 2007)

Good to see a rebound today from yesterday's closing price. I cannot work out arq! Here they are , lookin at a merger that will see them with a market cap of $1B plus. Exposure to Adi who are involved in a Potential Company Maker. They have a reasonable amount of cash in the bank with an income stream from Oil & Gas sales in Aust. Add to this near record Oil prices. 
And their SP has vitually bottomed out!
What is doing? 
If you go to their web site , & look up Broker reports , you can read what the Brokers are saying about this Company. 

Why is the SP where it is now??

Any ideas / comments why?

Regards

Bazollie


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 December 2007)

bazollie said:


> Good to see a rebound today from yesterday's closing price. I cannot work out arq! Here they are , lookin at a merger that will see them with a market cap of $1B plus. Exposure to Adi who are involved in a Potential Company Maker. They have a reasonable amount of cash in the bank with an income stream from Oil & Gas sales in Aust. Add to this near record Oil prices.
> And their SP has vitually bottomed out!
> What is doing?
> If you go to their web site , & look up Broker reports , you can read what the Brokers are saying about this Company.
> ...




Well, FWIW I think the problems they have had and are continuing to have with their high-hope Valentine-1 well probably doesn't help investor confidence right now....

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Valhalla 1 Update 6 Dec 07.pdf

Also, sitting on big wads of cash (rather than *rewarding* their long suffering investors through the occasional special share or options offers or even the occasional special cash dividend) doesn't help either. Beach Petroleum does. So why not ARQ? Beats me.

Failing to offer any shareholder incentives, management had better hope this miserable Valentine-1 adventure redeems itself handsomely, or the SP will sink a fair bit lower yet IMO.....  


AJ

**Disclaimer - I currently hold ARQ shares... so, do your own research!**


http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Valhalla 1 Update 6 Dec 07.pdf


----------



## jman2007 (23 December 2007)

Hi people,

New to this thread, I dont currently hold ARQ, but following on from bazollie's comments I felt compelled to chuck in my 

Given the buy recommendations I've seen for this stock, I wanted to find out more about it, and try to understand why the sp performance has been so disappointing.  Given that the merged ARQ/AZA will have a market cap of well over $1B and cash reserves exceeding $100M, you could be forgiven for thinking that ARQ are trading at a significant discount to similar-sized, mid-tier companies like NXS.

They seem to have had some really bad luck with the Valhalla-1 drilling, with losing equipment down-hole , and the abortive Sokes Bay drilling has hurt them as well.  The market may be saying that "we're unsure if these guys have the necessary technical capabilities to bring these projects to fruition", and on top of that it seems like the HC anomolies for these holes remain largely untested.  So ok, there seems to be an element of operational risk here.

The PR campign for the merger seems to have been a bit of a mini-disaster as well, but in the long-term, I think teaming up with a more experienced partner like Anzon esp for the Gippsland Basin area is the way to go.  With proven cash-generating operations elsewhere, imo these setbacks will eventually be overcome, and at some stage a re-rating of the sp should occur.

Imo, as with a lot of these companies like ARQ, TAP and NXS, their true value will not be realised until peak or even post-peak production as the cash-flow and the profits start to roll in.  Investors hoping for a quick buck from these investments will find that they will best be rewarded by patience, and correct entry-level timing.

Just expressing my opinion here of course, feel free to agree/disagree! As always DYOR 

jman


----------



## subi1 (23 December 2007)

I talked to Arc about a dividend but they are trying to grow the company and keep as much percentage in each project as possible.

I am hoping/thinking that their strategy is good. They seem to be trying to generate as much cash as possible and then accumulating projects with good exploration(expansion) potential. 

I have read that the Wandoo acquisition could be very good for the future with the bass gas project having very good near term expansion possibilities.(Trefoil,Aroo etc.). They also bought into a nearby field that Origin owns with possibly 50% of this project being theirs once some money is spent. They also went from 6%to approx. 30% in offshore Perth basin and they have had 2 discoveries(Frankland & Dunsborough) since then. They are drilling possibly 3 wells in January, February to prove whether these discoveries are commercial. It is possible that the Frankland gas discovery will be be piped to their Dongara gas facility if the economics are there. Time will tell.

They are also really giving it a go in the Canning Basin and hopefully they will prove up a substantial province. 

As far as the share price goes it is very frustrating but I am in for the long term and like what I see. 

Please do your own research. There is plenty of information at their website  www.arcenergy.com.au


----------



## doctorj (23 December 2007)

Eric's staked his future on the Canning Basin - there's oil there, similar geology has yielded billions of barrels of oil elsewhere in the world.  The trouble is it's highly faulted and notoriously difficult to drill.  10m to the left or right and you may miss a stack of oil and wind up with a dry hole.  

It's tough and the weather means drilling is only viable about half the year, but if it comes off its a company maker and then some.  If not, then, well, you get that.


----------



## nick2fish (29 December 2007)

Arc is moving in the speculative -disappointment cycle at present up on impending drill results/progress reports and down on perceived adverse results. Because ARQ has had their setbacks in a challenging environment their share price has tumbled to a ridiculous level. I keep on accumulating in these downturns only to see the price tumble more. If it drops to $1.20 I'm gonna have to sell something to get in again. And the reason I will and will keep doing this is as "The Doctor " has said any discovery in the Canning could well be huge and with the exploration acreage ARQ holds these discoveries could well be in the multiples. The fact is ARQ is already a company that is traveling along nicely care of high oil and gas prices  
Is increasing reserves by way of acquisition  
The chance of a reserve upgrade in the near future due to exploration success is high. 
As I am an investor, as opposed to a trader, I continue to hold and accumulate


----------



## Trader Paul (29 December 2007)

Hi folks,

ARQ ... looking ahead, volatility in 2008 should make ARQ a good
trading stock, as some BIG swings are expected.

For example, time cycles in January-March 2008 show:

 31122007-02012008 ..... negative news expected

               09012008 ..... significant and negative light on ARQ 

Many ARQ highs/lows/breakouts have figured in the past,
around 09-12 January, each year.

               15012008 ..... minor and positive ... finances???

               21012008 ..... significant and positive news expected

          06-08022008 ..... 3 cycles bring a positive spotlight onto ARQ ... 
               ... but, the share price may not be as strong as expected.

          04-06032008 ..... 2 cycles - significant and positive news expected

              10032008  ..... difficult times are highlighted here ... possibly
                                   with the technology being used (???)

          14-24032008 ..... significant and BIGtime negative cycle 

          27-28032008 ..... 2 cycles ... news expected here 

 ... there's also some very nasty aspects coming ARQ's way in April 2008.

have a great weekend

   paul



-----


----------



## wintermute (11 January 2008)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> ARQ ... looking ahead, volatility in 2008 should make ARQ a good
> trading stock, as some BIG swings are expected.
> ...




Spot on Paul!! current route started on 9th Jan, I'm just wondering how low it will go! $1.00 seems to be the only tentative support on the long term monthly chart!  Haven't seen prices this low for about 4 years   if it hit's $1.00 I think I'll have to buy some more 

Tony.


----------



## bazollie (11 February 2008)

wintermute said:


> Spot on Paul!! current route started on 9th Jan, I'm just wondering how low it will go! $1.00 seems to be the only tentative support on the long term monthly chart!  Haven't seen prices this low for about 4 years   if it hit's $1.00 I think I'll have to buy some more
> 
> Tony.




I just hope that it doesn't get to that $1.00 mark! I cannot believe the pricing of this stock. In the recent corporate presentation, there is a statement in this declaring that "the current share price is close to the value of proved & developed producing reserves." 
The way I see it this is that all of the exploration in the future, any discoveries are basically a free hit with the share price. Add to this the ongoing project in the US that ARQ has ownership of via ADI & this must surely be worth something at least! 
I am currently holding these, & feel particularly frustrated at the moment, wishing that something must go ARQ's way soon. 
Maybe they broke a few mirrors & walked under some ladders recently??

Still waiting , Bazza.


----------



## nick2fish (11 February 2008)

Hang in there buddy...you're not alone thats for sure. My feeling is Canning will be worth the wait and the punters will stall the exchange trying to get back on


----------



## kingbrown (29 February 2008)

Hi there 
any good reason as to why *Arq has been smashed so much *in the sp 
Have traded this stock before when it was in the 1.40's 

Couldnt help myself today bought back in at 1.04  has to be value ??
Looking to buy more if she goes under $1 

Let me know if you have any negatives on the current value around $1


----------



## nioka (29 February 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Hi there
> any good reason as to why *Arq has been smashed so much *in the sp :




One reason is the fall in value for ADI where ARQ is a major shareholder. Add to that a lack of news from the Canning basin and the history of not paying dividends and there is a lack on confidence in ARQ as a long term investment.


----------



## wintermute (1 March 2008)

I don't think that their new accounting practices are helping either!!!  what previously would have been a very decent profit becomes "on paper" a very minimal one... the cash position tells a different story. 

It would be nice to know how long the various writedowns will continue for, and whether they are slowly including lots of past exploration, or whether it is only current....   Shareholders (myself included) may be wondering if the effect on profit of these writedows will ever end!

Tony.


----------



## bazollie (3 March 2008)

wintermute said:


> I don't think that their new accounting practices are helping either!!!  what previously would have been a very decent profit becomes "on paper" a very minimal one... the cash position tells a different story.
> 
> It would be nice to know how long the various writedowns will continue for, and whether they are slowly including lots of past exploration, or whether it is only current....   Shareholders (myself included) may be wondering if the effect on profit of these writedows will ever end!
> 
> Tony.




Sorry to digress a little, but do you see amy correlation between a rise from 97.5 cents this morning to $1.06 today & the announcement from AED regarding their interests in acreages being sold off?

Just curious, as there was no news form arq , but in a shocker of a day on the market , arq did hold themselves reasonably well. Maybe the Canning Drill results which can't be too far away?

I still cannot understand why their price is at these levels with all of their cash on hand & other acreages screaming for holes to be drilled. 

Anyway, would welcome comments / theories etc. 


Regards

Bazza


----------



## oldblue (4 March 2008)

I don't think the SP pain is specific to ARQ.

Most of the small/mid tier energy stocks are taking a hiding in this market.


----------



## subi1 (28 March 2008)

Nice announcement from ARQ, ROC & AWE.

Their Dunsborough 2 well has found a large oil column by the looks Roc are saying 60 metres so far and still get more core samples to find the true extent of the field.(possibly39api oil)

All the shareprices were positive today so lets hope it keeps up. It looks like ARC'S move by buying the extra 24% of this field will pay off. Time will tell I guess. 

Have a read of the announcements for confirmation if you are interested.


----------



## jovan (29 March 2008)

Nice move up. Looks like they finally got some good news on the exploration from.

Any news on the merger?


----------



## oldblue (29 March 2008)

jovan said:


> Nice move up. Looks like they finally got some good news on the exploration from.
> 
> Any news on the merger?




What merger is that?
Not the aborted Anzon business?



Have I dozed off and missed something?


----------



## subi1 (29 March 2008)

Anzon merger?

My opinion is that ARQ are better off without it. They would have had a lot more shares on issue and therefore not as much leverage to exploration success.

Hopefully we will have exciting times ahead with all the wells being drilled over the next few years. There is also really good cash flow happening at the moment with the high oil and gas prices currently on offer.

AWE also look to have good things happening with a lot of exploration and cashflow.

As I said time will tell how it all works out.


----------



## oldblue (29 March 2008)

I don't think there is any question about it. ARQ are better off without Anzon. I'm just intrigued that jovan thinks this proposal is still alive. Or is it some other merger?


----------



## Sean K (14 April 2008)

AWE have put an offer on the table by the look.

Should be good you you ARQ holders. Hopefully you get a counter bid too.


----------



## pointr (14 April 2008)

Yes , we long suffering ARQ holders could do with some good news. I've held some for around 2 years. If the price mooted in the press $1.58 is the price achieved it would equate to about bank interest over that period for us. There has been much talk of hydrocarbon in the Canning Basin, but nothing much seems to have tested well so far. Or at least that has been the markets view to date. But who knows, maybe some good news from the drill bit or a counter bid might sweeten returns.


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## Stan 101 (14 April 2008)

I sold out of ARQ today for $1.38 average and a slight loss. My buy in price was $1.46 quite a while ago. This share has under performed and is one of the worst I've had in the stable for a while. This won't stop me buying back in at low $1.20s though if the talk of merger / take over continues.

I agree this is oine share it would have been better to keep the money in the bank and forgotten about it for a while. It's all experience, though..

cheers,


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## nick2fish (19 April 2008)

Hi sanguar, I can't understand why you sold out at this time? Merger talk ,testing Stokes soon and even though Yullero looks like a duster so did Sugerloaf for ADI. Sometimes it pays off to swim against the tide. Oh well you may be correct, so well done, but I don't think ARQ will go to $1.20 again.


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## Stan 101 (19 April 2008)

Hi Nick, you could well be right. I didn't want to lose the chance to regain my paper losses on this share if it slipped back into obscurity again.
This week has been a terrific one for day trading and with the funds freed up by selling my ARQ I have bought and sold several shares this week and I am well ahead.
Basically I let ARQ slide out past my usual stop loss going I went against my trading strategy. I have a list of shares that have cost me directly and in potential profit by working against my strategy. I hbasically had to clear dead wood to allow new growth.

All the best for you in this share. It is still on my radar and if I get a drop, I'll be back in like a flash..

cheers,


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## cicak_kupang (25 April 2008)

Im interested in this AWE and ARQ merger in realation to how any announcement from ADI about their SL testing will effect the ARQ SP and in return the SP offer from AWE for ARQ.
The timing of it all will be interesting. In the AWE ARQ merger presentation they value ARQ at $1.59 per share. ARQ has 32%of ADI, what happens to the offer if in the course of things if ADI comes through with the goods?  Surely AWE would have to up the offer on ARQ.  If im not mistaken, ADI  could be worth $1 to the ARQ SP, as talked about at  in the beginning of the ADI  thread.
There would be a lot of p…..off  punters too, if the AWE ARQ deal goes through, only to have ADI to announce that its all go at SL.  
ARQ would have to have some idea what they have with ADI at SL by now.
On page 4 of the AWE ARQ merger presentation under key conditions there is a clause..”no material adverse change”….this could mean any added value from ADI?
What do people think of the creation of Buru Energy for the canning assets?
If the merger goes ahead, Buru will have $75 million the bank, but the 3 yr 20 well canning exploration will coast $100 mill. The $40 mill Alcoa down payment will have to be repaid too if there are no gas finds. Brave move for this lil unborn company, but maybe this is a sign in itself that ARQ is sure there is oil/gas there.
I plan to email ARQ and ask them but am also interested in ASF's opinions.....

Comments anyone?


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## bazollie (25 April 2008)

I'm with you Cicack, to me the timing is not good given the fact that IF ADI comes through with a Discovery in their SL prospect, the $1.59 per share value will seem insignificant. Add to that the potential that ADI with Yemen & Indonesia , and all of a sudden $1.59 value is left way behind as well as the shareholders. 
It certainly would be a tremendous coup for the shareholders, should the Canning be "cracked!"
On the flip side , if there is little or no success then us shareholders will be equally frustrated. 

I am kinda hoping that there may be others keen to look at ARQ & perhaps a small bidding war will evolve? Blue sky I know , but there is so much potential of share price appreciation with ARQ in the next 3-4 months , that to give in to the first offer may not be the best result for the shareholders??

I am not qualified to make this call, but I'm sure that Eric would be keen to get the best result for himself & fellow shareholders. 

Regards

Bazollie


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## pointr (28 April 2008)

Does dropping 5% on opening albeit on low volume show what the market really thinks of the ARC / AWE merger. I'm a bit underwhelmed myself.


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## reece55 (28 April 2008)

pointr said:


> Does dropping 5% on opening albeit on low volume show what the market really thinks of the ARC / AWE merger. I'm a bit underwhelmed myself.




Not much in it really for anyone but the consultants who will extract a ton in putting together the deal....

However, perhaps an arb op here - the market is valuing the new Buru entity at about 43 cents, when according to the announcement it should be worth 73 cents... What is the value of the Canning Basin assets, anyone here got any comparisons to draw? Either way, a long ARC short AWE could have potential!

Cheers


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## doctorj (28 April 2008)

reece55 said:


> What is the value of the Canning Basin assets, anyone here got any comparisons to draw?



How much are ARQ’s Canning Basin assets worth? Eric obviously thinks a fair bit and there are plenty of signs that he might be right – a proven hydrocarbon system, some success with early drilling (Stokes, Blina, Larapintine, Lloyd, Sundown, West Kora, Point Torment).

The problem is the Canning has had a tough life. It’s highly faulted and success so far has fallen well short of expectations. The southern part of the Canning apparently isn’t as faulted and there are a number of companies (such as the unlisted Kingsway) that are backing that to hold riches.

The Canning seems to have excited petroleum Geos a great deal – parts of the Canning have been compared to the Devonian reefs in Canada, the Paradox Basin in USA and the Cambrian Ara Salt in Saudi Arabia.

Work is due to commence on Stokes shortly - success will improve the prospectivity of the whole region (but particularly the North) immensely. The porosity in the Nullera is very exciting and successful production from there should see all players re-rated significantly.


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## nick2fish (15 May 2008)

Hi all, 
Called ARQ today to enquire about Stokes testing program. Was told that due to the need to co-ordinate equipment around the Yulleroo drill site testing will probably be pushed back to the Q3. 
Garry Jeffreys said that it was a questions of economics and nothing to do with the merger. (I was suspecting otherwise)
Also said the JV partners are fine about it (luckily they are all lightweights)
Oh well, Peter Strachan of StockAnalysis is quite bullish on both drill sites.
The waiting game continues......


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## doctorj (15 May 2008)

nick2fish said:


> Garry Jeffreys said that it was a questions of economics and nothing to do with the merger.



Riiiight.

Along with their strong cash position, Stokes will be the asset that sells Buru to investors.  It will not be dealt with until this merger business is settled and Buru is spun out.


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## cicak_kupang (19 May 2008)

Why would ARQ re-release an old announcement about thier increased holding in ADI, on the same day when ADI has a promising sounding announcement, if ARQ wasnt trying to maybe draw importance to what ADI has at SL?
Maybe ARQ knows what they are onto at SL and are trying to draw attention to that.  If that results in any substantial ARQ SP increase, may also mean that AWE may have to re-nego an offer for ARQ?  IE; the $1.59 per share offer with 32% interest in ADI with what they are onto at SL is a bargan basement price and ARQ wants a better offer?

Comments Anyone?

On the cover note of the announcement is said that it had nothing to do with the AWE merger.......just like the delayed testing of stokes bay has nothing to do with the awe meger, Buru birth......i guess.  mmmmmm

Also posted on ADI thread....


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## nick2fish (19 May 2008)

I really don't think ARQ will be going for a better offer, more likely worried that AWE will be thinking of a sp offer reduction, given their strong sp climb due to strong production at Tui. 

It must be admitted that at $1.59 is at the lower end of most broker (and ARQs) valuation, however the market values ARQ much lower. 

Certainly looks like the ARQ promo machine in action but IMO a defensive play as opposed to offensive


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## oldblue (20 May 2008)

nick2fish said:


> I really don't think ARQ will be going for a better offer, more likely worried that AWE will be thinking of a sp offer reduction, given their strong sp climb due to strong production at Tui.
> 
> It must be admitted that at $1.59 is at the lower end of most broker (and ARQs) valuation, however the market values ARQ much lower.
> 
> Certainly looks like the ARQ promo machine in action but IMO a defensive play as opposed to offensive




I agree with your conclusion, nick, although I don't think the Tui production has changed anything. Production was at strong levels before the t/o was announced and a review of reserves had already been foreshadowed, with a stong hint that an upgrade was expected.
The strength of the AWE sp may be more a result of the POO, as evidenced by sp increases for other producers, Woodside, STO, OSH, BPT etc.

Disc: Holding both ARQ and AWE


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## oldblue (29 May 2008)

Good to see ARQ's sp up another 4% today.
Being partly pulled up by AWE, of course, whose own sp is up 6% today!


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## nioka (29 May 2008)

oldblue said:


> Good to see ARQ's sp up another 4% today.
> Being partly pulled up by AWE, of course, whose own sp is up 6% today!




More likely because of it's holding in ADI and the jump in ADI value with the better news coming through on Sugarloaf. ADI up 15% and ARQ holds approx 30% ADI.


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## oldblue (29 May 2008)

nioka said:


> More likely because of it's holding in ADI and the jump in ADI value with the better news coming through on Sugarloaf. ADI up 15% and ARQ holds approx 30% ADI.




For whatever reason the theoretical value of ARQ in the "merger" with AWE has now increased to $1-80.5, comprising .3 of an AWE share ( $1-30.5 ) plus 19c cash and 31c worth of Buru Energy.
Have to think about increasing my ARQ holding!


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