# The ASX should soar today - finally!!



## Realist (27 September 2006)

Been a long time coming, The ASX is still down nearly 10% from May, but overnight in the US the news was all good.

Economic data released was all positive, The DJ is up to a 2006 high, BHP was up 3.3%. RIO up 2%, RIN up 1%, NEWS up 2.5%.

All good!!    

Maybe a 2% rise today?  Here's hoping!


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## Nick Radge (27 September 2006)

The last week of September tends to be strong on both 10-year and 25-year seasonal cycles. Then of course we have October...


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## clowboy (27 September 2006)

And what happens in october?

I can never remember is sept or oct the worst month statisticly?  Or are they both bad?


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## juddy (27 September 2006)

HI Nick,

would you mind extending that chart into October if you have the time.

cheers


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## bowser (27 September 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> And what happens in october?
> 
> I can never remember is sept or oct the worst month statisticly?  Or are they both bad?




These for starters!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_27,_1997_mini-crash


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## Prospector (27 September 2006)

It means you should enjoy September while it lasts........


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## Realist (27 September 2006)

Got him yes....


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## Realist (27 September 2006)

Here's an analyst that was telling everyone to sell yesterday, saying the boom was over.  RIP.


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## swingstar (27 September 2006)

Prospector said:
			
		

> It means you should enjoy September while it lasts........




There's many more counter-trends to come.


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## wayneL (27 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Here's an analyst that was telling everyone to sell yesterday, saying the boom was over.  RIP.




Yep Goldilocks is buying with her ears back. She believes the totally manipulated #'s without analysis.

But the bulls are running only because the bears are busy with the property market... still work to do there yet. Got the US and east coast Oz bull, just carving it it ready to put in the freezer now, still the UK and WA to do over yet.

Then the stockmarket


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## wayneL (27 September 2006)

Here's one non-zombified view:

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=159159



> Fred Hickey is used to going against the crowd.
> Everyone scoffed in 1999 when the veteran Nashua, N.H., stock market guru, who publishes the influential High-Tech Strategist investment newsletter, warned that the tech bubble was going to pop.
> And they dismissed him as a wild alarmist early last year when he said house prices were going to slump.
> What’s his view now?
> ...


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## Luke6450 (27 September 2006)

yes nice day in the market today.... Back above 5000 again... Now stay there !


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## wayneL (27 September 2006)

There is a fundamental difference in the modus operandi of bulls and bears.

The bulls carry on like Man. U. fans. Waving and cheering, clapping, waving pom-poms about, going mental at each posession of the ball. They talk the game up, wear the colours, scarves etc etc etc.

Bears are different however.

Bears sit back and watch all this going on... No! While Man U. are winning, they're BSing on with the fans; but still sitting back and watching, waiting. Expediency is the bears motto. They'll be long, but it's a completely mercenary thing... only in it for the money.

But when the time is right...........




Steak for dinner!







Ahahahahaha!


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## Realist (27 September 2006)

Wayne, the bear is too busy evicting people from their Sydney homes at the moment to worry about the ASX, he'll travel south to Melbourne, up to QLD, then he'll have a field day in Perth.  By then he may be ready to destroy the ASX, but that's a long way off.


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## juddy (27 September 2006)

we've still got all those Perth housing profits to come into the market yet.


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## Realist (27 September 2006)

Central Perth, 2016.   

The mining boom and house boom are almost forgotten.


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## wayneL (27 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Central Perth, 2016.
> 
> The mining boom and house boom are almost forgotten.



... you're showing what will be the most popular bit... the road out.

*duck*


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## Realist (27 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> ... you're showing what will be the most popular bit... the road out.
> 
> *duck*




Wrong!!

No-one could afford the petrol to drive out, it is $9.50 a litre afterall.


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## barney (27 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> ... you're showing what will be the most popular bit... the road out.
> 
> *duck*




There is some seriously good "twoing and froing" on this thread, but the most important question is;..............why did you get rid of the 'Bear" wayne .........was he costing you too much to feed??..............(I miss the bear :bounce:


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## Realist (27 September 2006)

The bear has moved to a property forum...


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## wayneL (27 September 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> There is some seriously good "twoing and froing" on this thread, but the most important question is;..............why did you get rid of the 'Bear" wayne .........was he costing you too much to feed??..............(I miss the bear :bounce:



LOL, he's hiding in his cave conserving energy. 

He WILL reappear


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## wayneL (27 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Wrong!!
> 
> No-one could afford the petrol to drive out, it is $9.50 a litre afterall.




ROTFL 

True


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## GreatPig (27 September 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> And what happens in october?



Hopefully I get some money back on the couple of short positions I'm holding 

GP


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## lesm (27 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> LOL, he's hiding in his cave conserving energy.
> 
> He WILL reappear



Will he awaken :sleeping:  in October?

Always an interesting month.  

Who remembers '87?


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## dr00 (27 September 2006)

Heres hoping for a crash, ive got some money to invest


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## Smurf1976 (27 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> The bear has moved to a property forum...



I can confirm that is true. Plenty of bears on property forums, at least two of which are also on ASF (though the Smurf bear is specifically a property bear rather than a general purpose bear).


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## 3 veiws of a secret (27 September 2006)

roll on october ,friday THE 13th! spooky  :sleeping:


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 September 2006)

US Dow new high!

 :goodnight 


Open: 11,670   

*High: 11,713  * 

Low: 11,661  
*
52wk High: 5/10/2006 11,709  * 

52wk Low: 10/13/2005 10,098  

 Avg Volume: 228.25M


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## wayneL (28 September 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> US Dow new high!



Good!

Now we've got that out of the way, we can go ahead and tank. LOL


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## scsl (28 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Good!
> 
> Now we've got that out of the way, we can go ahead and tank. LOL



Here's hoping we that we do!

I've gone short some NAB CFDs at about $36.30 as I'm anticipating falls in the Dow which should see some selling of the banks. I'm also long CML and even if the broader market falls, I don't see CML falling below $14. I got in at $14.23 and am banking on an offer above $15.50.

What to you think wayne? Do you see the Dow marching on (it's already up about 50 points as I type) or do you see some falls in the next few days?

Thanks,
scsl


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## michael_selway (28 September 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> Here's hoping we that we do!
> 
> I've gone short some NAB CFDs at about $36.30 as I'm anticipating falls in the Dow which should see some selling of the banks. I'm also long CML and even if the broader market falls, I don't see CML falling below $14. I got in at $14.23 and am banking on an offer above $15.50.
> 
> ...




The way i see it, ST to MT it will be up, before the crash, so atleast 12 months of up imo, DOW 11300, XAO 6000

thx

MS


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## wayneL (28 September 2006)

Yeah the US is firmly in Goldilocks mode.

This is a country that believes its own rhetoric in the face of all evidence to the contrary. They will prop it up till it pops big time.

<added>\/



> No Shortage of Bubbles and Troubles
> 
> By Jim Jubak
> MSN Money Markets Editor
> ...


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## brerwallabi (28 September 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Yeah the US is firmly in Goldilocks mode.
> 
> This is a country that believes its own rhetoric in the face of all evidence to the contrary. They will prop it up till it pops big time.
> 
> <added>\/



Yes and when they could not sell the original green coke they changed it to black.
Many years left in the US and I previously did not think so.
I don't know if leopards can really change their spots.
But I do know that bears become bulls.


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## wayneL (28 September 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> But I do know that bears become bulls.




Of course! That is the whole point of being a bear!

Bears just want restoration of fair value... thats all!

errrr...well maybe just a bit less than fair value


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## Realist (28 September 2006)

Well BHP up 3%, RIO up 3.3%, and Rinker up 2%.

Maybe we are in for a proper commodities boom, the last rise was merely the calm before the storm!!   

ASX should soar today as well!


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## wayneL (28 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well BHP up 3%, RIO up 3.3%, and Rinker up 2%.
> 
> Maybe we are in for a proper commodities boom, the last rise was merely the calm before the storm!!
> 
> ASX should soar today as well!




Gold, Silver, and Energies up smartly (the fear commodities)... Cu, Al not so much, so wouldn't get too carried away. Nevertheless BHP et al will benefit.

Been stepping into Gold and silver in small chunks via ETFs over the last few days, but plonked on oil futures tonight.... so I'm mingling with the commodity bulls atm... I wouldn't be surprised to see a convenient terrorist attack before the Evil Empire mid term elections.


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## Realist (28 September 2006)

It's looking good for another big rise on the ASX today...  :

What are you doing up so late Wayne?


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## wayneL (28 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> It's looking good for another big rise on the ASX today...  :
> 
> What are you doing up so late Wayne?




I trade futures in the Evil Empire... CME just closing in a few minutes.

SYCOM (overnight SPI) action FWIW \/


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## nizar (28 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> The way i see it, ST to MT it will be up, before the crash, so atleast 12 months of up imo, DOW 11300, XAO 6000
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




The way i see it, DOW will see 12,000+ by the end of the year. Its due for a good rally, last year it underformed other global equity markets big time, pretty much ending flat from where it started.

Once the DOW closes above 11,722 which will be an all-time high, TA says it willl rally into blue skies.

As for XJO/XAO, we really like higher oil prices. Our correlation to the US markets is rather poor.
Last year DOW ~0%, XAO ~17%.

This year they have outperformed us


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## GreatPig (28 September 2006)

Things are a bit better for me so far today, with most longs being up (none are actually down) and one of my shorts being down (the underlying that is).

The other short is up a bit, but not strongly and slipping as I watch. I'll keep a close eye on that one though.

GP


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## BSD (30 September 2006)

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=159159

*But he’s certainly putting his money where his mouth is. Hickey is betting against a wide range of U.S. stocks, including Google, IBM, Motorola, Intel, Apple, Research In Motion, Texas Instruments and Amazon. “I’ve got the biggest number of short positions I’ve ever had,” he says. 

    The next few weeks should tell an interesting story. U.S. companies are due to start reporting in numbers on the summer season, which ends on Sunday. * 

OOPS

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afnsdEFGVOHE&refer=home

The stock rose as much as 21 percent after the company said yesterday that second-quarter profit rose 27 percent

``These numbers were awesome,'' said Peter Misek, an analyst at Canaccord Adams in Toronto who rates the stock ``buy''


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## wayneL (30 September 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=159159
> 
> *But he’s certainly putting his money where his mouth is. Hickey is betting against a wide range of U.S. stocks, including Google, IBM, Motorola, Intel, Apple, Research In Motion, Texas Instruments and Amazon. “I’ve got the biggest number of short positions I’ve ever had,” he says.
> 
> ...




Yeah saw that, it's one of the stocks I follow... ouch!

Hope he had the sense to be hedged.

As an aside, it just doesn't make mathematical sense to be a medium/long term shorter of stocks... and with the market in goldilocks mode... well.....


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## wayneL (30 September 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=159159
> 
> *But he’s certainly putting his money where his mouth is. Hickey is betting against a wide range of U.S. stocks, including Google, IBM, Motorola, Intel, Apple, Research In Motion, Texas Instruments and Amazon. “I’ve got the biggest number of short positions I’ve ever had,” he says.
> 
> ...




Maybe he is short RHAT as well. Down ~20% on wednesday.

That's how it is in the tech sector in the US  

Remember my "Dog in the night" quote?


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## Bearman52 (30 September 2006)

BELIEVE IT OR NOT?????? RIPLEY STRIKES AGAIN
 HI FOLKS FOUND THIS ON THE WEB !
THINK I'LL BUY A HUMPIE IN NTH QLD AND GO BARRA FISHING
BM
I find it usefull to Google the Astrology sites and see what those mystics and seers are thinking and seeing.  We have had a bunch of people reflecting on the astros around 9/22-27 but this is deeper thought and insight. We are shifting from Jupiter to Saturn and that is a long term big change.  I know of one Astrologer who has moved into the heart of West Viginia and gone back to living off the land based on his predictions. So here's some thoughts.



from: http://www.revelation13.net/economy.html

(3) I would keep a close eye on the Stock Market and the world economy in 2006 - 2007, there likely will be worsening economic problems in Europe, Asia, and generally in the world economy, but I think the U.S. will do much better than most of the world. I think that Europe, Asia, and Latin America will see economic chaos and economic recession or depression, and stock market decline and chaos, from in 2007. Watch the New York Stock Exchange  and the Dow Jones average, but I think Wall Street and the U.S.economy will not do too badly, either staying steady or dropping some in 2006, but Europe, Latin American, and Asian stock markets and economies could be headed for serious problems in 2007. In particular, I think the world economy could worsen in 2007, see this page. 
Also, investments and business dealings with Russia should be avoided. Europe and in particular Germany, which are increasing economic and political connections with Russia, I think are making a big mistake that will be regretted when Putin turns against Europe in the future. Putin is evil, but Europe will be fooled by him. Watch out for a mother bear (Russia) that has lost its cubs (Russia's empire), it can be an angry mother bear. I think Russia's economy will actually grow under Putin during 2006-2007, but I think Russia will turn very dangerous and angry towards the West within a few years.
I believe that 4 of the Planets correspond to the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse in Revelation; Jupiter is the Antichrist, Mars is War, Saturn is Economic Depression, and Pluto is Death (and Hell rides with Death, Pluto has a single moon Charon, which like Pluto has a mythology connected with the Land of the Dead.) Saturn I would relate to economic depression, because in Greek / Roman / Etruscan mythology, Saturn was associated with agriculture as well as weights and measures and coins. So, there could be worsening world economic problems in 2007. So the third horseman, economic problems, could ride (in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and much of the rest of the world, the U.S. I think will not do too badly, the economy dropping some). 

And I think there could be worsening economic problems also in 2007-8 in Europe, possibly a stock market crash in Europe. Also, watch out for the world economy sinking in 2007-8 after an August 2007 Middle Eastern war. World economic chaos and economic disaster I think will exist from 2007-2008. During this time period expect to see economic chaos and disaster, wars, Muslim terrorist attacks, Sunni-Shiite Muslim war in Iraq and the Middle East, disease epidemics, great earthquakes, great storms and global warming causing sea levels to rise, and possibly asteroids or pieces of a comet may hit earth. This ends with the Armageddon, World War 3, in August 2007. After that, after 2007, hope for the world will come from the Southern Hemisphere. 
But how about in the past, were there any particular planetary alignments during times of economic problems? Yes, there is a general pattern we shall discuss here. During the October 1987 and October 1929 stock exchange crashes, the Planet Saturn was in the Astrological sign of Sagittarius. The significance of this is that Sagittarius, the combined horse/man, with Saturn having a connection in Greek / Roman / Etruscan mythology to agriculture as well as weghts and measures and coins, means that Saturn in Sagittarius represents the third Horseman of the Apocalypse, economic depression. When Saturn is in Sagittarius you may get the trigger event, such as a stock market crash, that begins an economic depression. Saturn will not be in Sagittarius for many years, but you can still expect great economic chaos in 2007-2008 as we will then be in the seven year End Times period, including a major war in 2007.
Other cases of economic problems when Saturn was in Sagittarius: 
(1) Saturn was in Sagittarius in 1782, when an economic decline began that resulted in economic depression in the U.S. from 1783 to 1787.
(2) Saturn was in Sagittarius from 1838-1841, a severe economic depression, lasting seven years, began with the panic of 1837, caused by a series of bank failures.
(3) Saturn was in sagittarius on Sept. 24, 1869, when a Gold Market panic, "Black Friday", began an economic decline that resulted in a severe recession for the U.S. 1873-1879.
(4) The Panic of 1893 resulted in a severe recession until 1897, when Saturn entered Sagittarius, in this case at the end of the recession.
Generally, the U.S. economic pattern of recessions or depressions every 30 or 60 years is related to the 29.4 period of revolution around the Sun of the planet Saturn. 

I am currently looking at buying a Pearson 39 sailboat which is another way of getting out of the way of all this.  Sail the Caribbean for a few years while the world works its way through this mess.

MJS




Marshall Schroeder


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## tasmanian (30 September 2006)

another doomsdayer!!!!

well have fun sailing around the carribean sounds like a nice way to spend the next few years.if you can do it now why do to need the bad news.even if the world is booming it sounds like a nice way to spend a year or 2.

good luck.need any crew no maybe not too much negativity for me.cheers


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## Bearman52 (30 September 2006)

tasmanian said:
			
		

> another doomsdayer!!!!
> 
> well have fun sailing around the carribean sounds like a nice way to spend the next few years.if you can do it now why do to need the bad news.even if the world is booming it sounds like a nice way to spend a year or 2.
> 
> good luck.need any crew no maybe not too much negativity for me.cheers



Hi Tasmanian
I'm only quoting Mr. Schroeder!! My name may be Bearman but I'm not that negative. I am, however, very open minded.
BM


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## tasmanian (30 September 2006)

no worries bearman.

openminded fair enough.enjoy sailing the carribean sounds good.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 September 2006)

Hmmmm like some of the astrologers and tea leave readers making predictions I too have made a few  observations and would like to post my findings,


1. My fish seems to be swimming counter-clockwise around his bowl

2. My toilet seems to be flushing in the opposite direction to what it used to

3. My dog seems to be chasing his tail in a counter-clockwise direction

These observations lead me to conclude that the US Housing Market is set to follow that of the Aus mkt stagnating for a few years,

I think I'll set up a website and a newsletter and call 'Flat US Housing'  :


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## phoenixrising (30 September 2006)

Phew, I was just about to go throw myself of the Gap, when I remembered the Grand Final is nearly starting, so I'll wait awhile.

Sun is in um, the sky I think so I'm predicting a good day today.
Tonight should be good also, the Moon is in the sky as well


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## Bearman52 (30 September 2006)

HI PHOENIX
                                 "the Moon is in the sky"
ARE YOU SURE???????
BM


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