# Ascending vs. Descending - In Real Time



## Dutchy3 (7 July 2007)

Hi Everybody

For those interested in pattern formations here's what I see. Two stocks (AGK, FGL) forming up into Decending Triangles and another two (CBH, NCM) Ascending Triangles, right now ....

I've posted elsewhere regarding the strength, or predictability of the Decending Triangle bullish breakouts that I trade .... lets watch as these four evolve over the next few weeks ....

All offered via CFD too.


----------



## CFD (9 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Looking forward to you following these through Dutchy. You may need to remind us of some finer points as you go.


----------



## CanOz (9 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Thanks heaps for those Dutchy! I love these patterns too!

Cheers,


----------



## Gar (9 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

will be interesting to see how this pans out, cool idea dutchy


----------



## Dutchy3 (11 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Time for a zoom in ...

Here we see the first of these four stocks taking a bit of interest ... NCM

The first duty I have as a market participant is to understand what success and failure look like ... in practical terms ... what's a BUY signal and where would the STOP therefore be?

NCM - like ALL the patterns I trade make this task simple. A CLOSE at 24.50 or above will be my entry signal ... STOP at 23.00 ...

Why ... A BIG WHITE that closes at 24.50 or above defeats three attempts at this price over the last three months ... 23.00 is safely below today's BIG WHITE and contained within the confusion since March 2003. An additional comfort factor is the little blue arrows below the three BIG WHITE's contained within the pattern since March 2003. These arrows signify greater than 150% of the 50 period average volume for that period. In other words these days the BUYERS DOMINATED the sellers ... always a happy party when seeking to go long ... 

Now this is an ASCENDING TRIANGLE and according to my logic its the BUYERS that have been doing all the work holding this market up for the last three months. The SELLERS have been patient at 24.00 and simply used their combined 'weight' to smack this down for the three months....

So .... Buyers need to have plenty of lead in pencil if they are to breech 24.50 and beyond ... opposite is true for DECSENDING TRIANGLE bullish breakouts.

We should have an answer on this one very soon ....


----------



## reece55 (12 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> Time for a zoom in ...
> 
> Here we see the first of these four stocks taking a bit of interest ... NCM
> 
> ...




Hey Dutchy
Great minds think alike - I was actually reviewing NCM tonight for a possible position.....

24.50 seems like a logical entry point, provided that we see a nice white candle...

Certainly, with Oil on the rise, the USD on the fall, Gold becomes a possible investment target. So far our hot stocks have been in the materials and oil and gas sectors - perhaps it's time to see NCM move upwards, along with fellow gold stocks.

Out of interest, Citigroup upgrading their price target to 28.00 today, on the potential for NCM's removal of it's hedge book...

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (12 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Dutchy, thanks for this, been following NCM pattern as well, and thought it a potential breakout for some time as seen in that thread. I like your approach here. $24 proving quite a barrier. I notice it has touched it 15 times in the past 5 months and held above once. My bottom support line would be a little steeper than yours. I think your stop at 23 is a little conservative. I think 23 might be some initial support as it coincides with a possible weaker upward trend, so a stop just under that might be better, and I think it could probably get to 22.50 (last lows) and still be ascending. A break below there and it's back to sideways probably. 

Having said that, this is a pretty skittish stock. Investors take it to task on any whiff of trouble, so maybe your conservative stop is a better approach. I'd also consider pyramiding up and down in this while it's hovering around $23.50. I'd certainly be adding to a position on a clear break through $24. 

Agree with Reece that $US, Oil and geopolitics are pointing to break up. 

Great thread, thanks. Hopefully this turns into a good example of a breakout of an ascending triangle. 

(holding some already - since 04)


----------



## CFD (12 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> Time for a zoom in ...
> ~~
> Now this is an ASCENDING TRIANGLE and according to my logic its the BUYERS that have been doing all the work holding this market up for the last three months.
> ~~




That I can follow, it looks like whenever there is low volume the price drops. 
ie it can't hold itself up, needs buyers just to hold a stead price.
Could this be just as likely to fall as rise?


----------



## Sean K (12 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

I've opened up another long position with this formation potential break, but intraday looks like 24.50 is forming as a strong barrier. Finger on the 'save my @rse' button, as much as I can on the other side of the planet. This aint darts!! Come on ascending triangle, ascend!!!!


----------



## Dutchy3 (12 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Not quite there yet ... very tempting I know ... further reinforced the SELLERS at 24.50 ish though .... 

A CLOSE below 23.50 will now discount yesterdays BIG WHITE ... as the BUYERS will need to regroup. All the same a CLOSE at 24.50 + tomorrow will see me LONG ... could be in the last few minutes of trading


----------



## Sean K (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> Not quite there yet ... very tempting I know ... further reinforced the SELLERS at 24.50 ish though ....
> 
> A CLOSE below 23.50 will now discount yesterdays BIG WHITE ... as the BUYERS will need to regroup. All the same a CLOSE at 24.50 + tomorrow will see me LONG ... could be in the last few minutes of trading



Close $23.90.

Currently: dollar down, oil up, DJI pumping, geopolitics dodgy, M&A activity high, MACD and Stoch just crossing, all supporting the ascending triangle. All in all, makes a high probability break up IMO. 

Therefore, they'll release some bad production numbers tomorrow...


----------



## Sean K (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

CBH seems to have a little further to go. Looks pretty positive though, doesn't it.


----------



## clowboy (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



kennas said:


> Close $23.90.
> 
> Currently: dollar down:




Kennas, when you say dollar down are u refering to USD?  wouldn't that hurt NCM?  Ie our dollar is up, reducing profits?


----------



## Dutchy3 (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Dow up 283 last night ... THE most positive lead in a while .... if NCM can't do it today then ..... well then!


----------



## Sean K (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



clowboy said:


> Kennas, when you say dollar down are u refering to USD?  wouldn't that hurt NCM?  Ie our dollar is up, reducing profits?



I think you are right, but I'm referring to the weak $US influence on POG. Not sure of the sum effect on Aus gold producers in Aus....even? Could be negative perhaps....


----------



## Dutchy3 (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



kennas said:


> CBH seems to have a little further to go. Looks pretty positive though, doesn't it.




Yep ... when the time comes we will make a few bob on her ... the waitings the bit I struggle with ... I can make all sorts of other things happen in my life but I need the wait for the market to give me the $ .... rather hard to handle ....


----------



## Sean K (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> Dow up 283 last night ... THE most positive lead in a while .... if NCM can't do it today then ..... well then!



Gap up is building. Might find your 24.50 today but EOD not sure. I agree with other comments on big gap up, power for a while and then sell off in the afternoon. Glad I was in yesty in retrospect, but more just a lucky pluck I think.


----------



## Dutchy3 (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hi kennas ... I've taken an anchor position as soon as I posted my last on this at the open ... I'm taking a week off next week so only a small bite.

All the same the rest of my positions are having a great run so far today ... I'll just be monitoring next week and closing out should I need to ... no new positions will be opened


----------



## Sean K (13 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> Hi kennas ... I've taken an anchor position as soon as I posted my last on this at the open ... I'm taking a week off next week so only a small bite.
> 
> All the same the rest of my positions are having a great run so far today ... I'll just be monitoring next week and closing out should I need to ... no new positions will be opened



Crap day today! Out of 16 stocks, 3 are red! Aaaaagh! How could that be? DJI up 20% overnight, and something goes down. Disaster!!!

Is this a blow off top?


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

AGK breaking up? 

FGL has some way to go. 

NCM looks to gap up at this stage. Match $24.97. 

(PS, NCM will probably get smashed now. )


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

I'm looking very short term here because of potential market toppiness and I went CFD with this trade, so need to keep it tight. Contracting back to support and has respected it to date. This is a good thing, but breaking down through previous resistance, now support, will be bad karma!  Parachute at the ready....


----------



## brettc4 (19 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Kennas,

From my understanding of an ascending triangle, the target price is based on the heigth of the triangle, and therefore around the $27 mark. Is this correct.

Also where did you put your initial stop on this breakout, at around $23, $22.5 or elsewhere and why?

Brett


----------



## Sean K (20 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



brettc4 said:


> Kennas,
> 
> From my understanding of an ascending triangle, the target price is based on the heigth of the triangle, and therefore around the $27 mark. Is this correct.
> 
> ...



Yes, I'd call $27.00 ish target, possibly $27.50 ($20.50 low to $24.00 = $3.50 potential), which is all time high as well, and I'd expect resistance there. Stop on EOD close below $22.50 which is making a lower low from breakout, and breaking uptrend support line. 

I'm re-evaluating this as it goes. Breaking $25.00 will be even more bullish IMO, and I might add to the position. After that a trailing stop would be introduced on any significant breakdowns, just depends on how the stock behaves. Watching POG chart as well for breakdowns to influence this.


----------



## Dutchy3 (21 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hmmm ... back from a weeks break .... NCM, the BULLS having done all the work within the triangle formation are now looking for more in order to drive the SP ... AGK on the other hand ... the BEARS are now exhausted and the break looks ALOT healthier .... Look for bullish breakouts of DECENDING triangles trading above the 30 WEMA ....


----------



## CFD (22 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Which M/A are you using on the daily charts? (and welcome back)


----------



## Dutchy3 (22 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

HI CFD ... 30 day exp move avg


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> Hmmm ... back from a weeks break .... NCM, the BULLS having done all the work within the triangle formation are now looking for more in order to drive the SP ... AGK on the other hand ... the BEARS are now exhausted and the break looks ALOT healthier .... Look for bullish breakouts of DECENDING triangles trading above the 30 WEMA ....




Dutchy,

I am quite happy to watch it take some time to get up there, NCM that is. Not weeks, but we don't want those sellers to flood in.


cheers...


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hi Snake

Me too ... NCM was never going to set the world on fire in terms if SP increase. It's a little too 'mature' for that sort of behaviour. Nicely geared into it so can play out over the coming months.


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

CBH signals its future intentions .... LONG on the close today ... Another heavy volume day too .... this one is being picked up by those with deep pockets ...
Should be looking fine by the end of the week ...


----------



## CanOz (23 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Going to be very interesting to watch this one. At first i was keen on the triangle break. But after i looked closer i can't get my R/R..so i'll pass on it and see how it pans out...could be tracing out a larger triangle here...good luck Dutchy.

Cheers,


----------



## Sean K (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

FGL is getting closer to a decision point...


----------



## Sean K (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



Dutchy3 said:


> CBH signals its future intentions .... LONG on the close today ... Another heavy volume day too .... this one is being picked up by those with deep pockets ...
> Should be looking fine by the end of the week ...



Damn! Good pick up. I was in bed before the close so missed this. Still might be a good opp. Cheers!


----------



## Sean K (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

NCM gap up over that little resistance $25.00 but it's a big leap to hold onto. 

I think this has been a success story for the thread, with the ascending triangle proving to be to be highly probably for a break to the upside.  (well, in this one case anyway! LOL) 

Now just manage the trade.


----------



## Dutchy3 (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hi kennas

Gaps are good .... agreed especially after a move out of any compression formation. The depth of the last one was about 400 .... so I'm thinking 28.00 at this stage for this reaction


----------



## clowboy (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Damn, NCM turned out to be an awesome trade.  Was interesting to watch it unfold and everyones comments, just wish I had of "followed" the trade for real.

Gratz to all that took the trade


----------



## Dutchy3 (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

It's an amazing day ... if this thing holds up I'll have increased my entire portfolio value by about 15% today. I've never been in a position where each position is in front all on the same day .... gives me some perspective just how 'geared' I am at the moment


----------



## clowboy (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Does OSH qualify?

It would need to break up a bit before a trade I would think?  Does todays action on such high volume suggest a failure?

Would apreciate ppls thoughts.  thanx


----------



## buggalug (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hey Guys,

New to this, but how's this one look?


----------



## nomore4s (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



buggalug said:


> Hey Guys,
> 
> New to this, but how's this one look?




Buggalug, what's the stock code?


----------



## buggalug (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



nomore4s said:


> Buggalug, what's the stock code?




HFA, it's up the top of the chart.


----------



## nomore4s (24 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



buggalug said:


> HFA, it's up the top of the chart.




lol, yeah I know just can't read it


----------



## Sean K (25 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

I've closed my CFD on NCM but still holding my ordinary shares. Tidy few days. 

Closed to lock in profits and I'm guessing that $US is going to make a short recovery soon, and POO may fall back too which will effect POG...To be reviewed.


----------



## R0n1n (25 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



kennas said:


> I've closed my CFD on NCM but still holding my ordinary shares. Tidy few days.
> 
> Closed to lock in profits and I'm guessing that $US is going to make a short recovery soon, and POO may fall back too which will effect POG...To be reviewed.




smart way to do it Kennas. I am also looking to jump in at the retrace.


----------



## buggalug (25 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*



nomore4s said:


> lol, yeah I know just can't read it




hehe no problem, just thought you missed it. It seemed to take off again today, did anyone jump on?


----------



## Dutchy3 (28 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Well

What a week ... just gave back 30% of my capital two days after it had increased 15% the day before .... 

I'm in cash .... my money mgt has recieved a good looking at this morning

I've been doing two things clearly wrong 

1 CFD positions taken have been using the equity built up in previous postions taken who's gains I had not actually realised (ie : these positions where still open themselves)
2 Latter CFD positions much larger that the earlier ones so reversals in latter positions not only eroded the gains in that position but also wiped out the gains from, smaller and profiatable, previous positions ...

My analysis is generally OK ... and I've always used STOPs effectively with straight equity positions ... oh well ...

Looks like we shouild not expect any great bounce on Monday either ... going to be a hard one to come back from too quickly and I expect the shadow of last week, and what is to come will be around for quite some time


----------



## CFD (29 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Yes, there is not too many descending triangles that have not descended past the support line!

I am happy with using a GSL (which may have helped your situation), only problem is IG will not let you set it to a distance less than 5%


----------



## Dutchy3 (29 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hi CFD

I'm going to open one one position at at time from now on via CFD

Bit like those that just trade the SPI or similar.

Will only be in one of the 1, 3 or 5 % offerings

That way I can concentrate my attention, not be concerned about multiple positions impacting on each other in terms of margin etc.

I had a great position in ZFX (my first CFD) that was very profitable in its own right and had I had that position alone last week I would of simply exited and locked in a great profit.


----------



## JeSSica WaBBit (29 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Dutchy,

Sorry to hear of those losses, i am sure you will bounce back mate!! 

Have a think about loading up on Cue??


----------



## Dutchy3 (29 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Hi JW .... cheers .... that's anothery .... this position was also well in front!!

30% margin needed though

Mind not a bad idea to make this one my only one and drop the exposure...


----------



## JeSSica WaBBit (29 July 2007)

*Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time*

Yep, not CFD that margin is too big. 

Without hijacking your thread consider this.

Speculative, but calculated, downside seems limited to me especially with SPC's recent 34 million share spending spree @ 19.2 cent average. Todd with large quantity @ 22 cents.

How i see it possibly playing out is.................get in before Oyong starts, 21.5 seems to have support to me and i doubt it will drop below 20 cents?
Then, sell on price rise following Oyong start up. Ride to top of trend.

Hopefully get out before US driving season demand dwindles in late August - Spetember, could compound pull back if oil drops in price? If this happens, however, i have also read that oil may remain high through till next year? Who knows????

Then wait patiently for around mid 2008, hope for an announcement that Maari is delayed, watch price fall then buy back at bottom of down trend. Then hold until Maari is fully operational and then sell out. 

All hypothetical and a long shot but i see it playing out something like that. The money maker is being able to sell the top of the up trend after Oyong and then get back in before Maari kicks off. Hoping the punter lose interest and you can capitalise.

I'll leave it at that and make all other comments in the CUE thread.

Best of luck!!!


----------

