# GCN - GoConnect Limited



## motorway (22 May 2008)

Chart reveals the story 

may it continue ( I hold )

A type of fulcrum pattern called "Recoil"

( names are really unimportant ....But some names do capture the dynamics )

I would point out the volume activity along  .025 line

The objective to .07... The conforming to trend line

The  building of a small stepping stone
( which would not negate the current  uptrend if it moves sideways for 3 more columns ) 

motorway


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## Sean K (23 May 2008)

Could be breaking a long term downtrend. Short term up, but mid term I think it needs to crack that resistance between .048 and .05, otherwise it's vulnerable to fall back, and or just trade sideways.


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## motorway (24 May 2008)

Looking OK

a log chart ( I like to  look at both... But the difference is not the same issues as with bar & candle charts )

I also like the old name for a P&F chart as a "manipulation detector"

What manipulates is of course some sort of information..

( eg that something good is unfolding ot not )


SSI  ended up with a gambling franchise in Shanghai
 GCN appears  connected in the same way and has its own focus ( media )

a few announcements

and in parallel the chart starts ""detecting" ( basically moving in a particular sort of way )

( because of  the flow of money and sentiment.. )



On this chart we see a little more detail in the congestion of the last 5 columns... A breakout out here above the "double top" , and it is moving up atm... I would view as very postive... Given the context of the chart..

A significant  continuation of the  changing of the behavior

and unlike CXY this is certainly not a traders paradise atm.

DYOR 

motorway


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## Sean K (24 May 2008)

MW, the red lines you have projected up to the East look nothing more than an absolute pluck! Can ypu please provide some justification to that? Cheers... SK


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## Sean K (24 May 2008)

Sorry, for some reason the system is making me add several lines in to say this:



kennas said:


> MW, the red lines you have projected up to the East look nothing more than an absolute pluck! Can you please provide some justification to that?
> 
> Let's hope it goes that way, but really???
> Cheers... SK




Golly, a Mod shorting the system..... LOL


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## motorway (24 May 2008)

They are often called today

objective trend lines

Some of the earliest texts on P&F commented on how
These charts move at 45 degree angles under certain conditions

ChartCraft today ( Dorsey too ) use nothing but 45 degree lines
projected like this..

They are drawn from pivot points

Time is not on the horizontal axis

so it is not a trend line projected through time

But a measure of trend Vs volatility

very much a measure of supply demand dynamics

and a hurdle rate



> Trend Lines
> 
> 
> Trend lines are very important in point & figure analysis. The saying that ‘the trend is your friend’ is certainly true.
> ...




from 

http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/using_point_and_figure_charts.html

motorway


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## motorway (24 May 2008)

It is basic P&F technique

and as minor pivots form
the "internal lines" are drawn
to keep a sensitivity.....


motorway


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## Sean K (24 May 2008)

MW, still doesn't make any sence to me. Perhaps you can add a glossary to these posts, or something....

Or, perhaps I need to spend more time analysing P&F....


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## motorway (23 June 2008)

> The building of a small stepping stone
> ( which would not negate the current uptrend if it moves sideways for 3 more columns )




If the chart is identifying a new information dynamic

( and the chart is defining the "line" marked by the blue arrow as accumulation)

Then the stepping stone has reached the window
where a resumption of the move up could be expected

 It is a window, another column across would be OK.
point --->columns are not time but  "work" 

Time and no work is nothing ( unless the work is hidden )
Work in it's own time is everything ( always )

Scales of Magnitudes
not Frames of time

defines P&F

DYOR 

motorway


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## nomore4s (29 June 2008)

Some weekly charts of GCN.

First chart is just a weekly over a 5 year period to give a general overview. Second chart is a 18 month period to give a better view of the congestion area. 

Nice zone of congestion over the last couple of months with some positive volume, look at where the volume picked up and the effect that volume has had since the lows at under 1c (whoever brought on those lows must be pretty happy). Look at the high closes in this area of congestion, very positive signs imo.

A weekly close above 4.5c could lead to a good break out and hopefully a decent push higher.

I hold.


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## motorway (9 August 2008)

> another column across would be OK




And that is where we are 

"another column across"

Again

What is the character ?

If that is a ceiling
what is keeping up there ?

But then maybe it a a floor ?

Interesting
even though it is through
the trend line quite a bit

That trendline has not be negated .

I still hold

But ........Anything could happen from here.

Until it does
Atm my intention is to wait

motorway


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## motorway (14 April 2009)

> In studying the movements of stocks, it is well to have in mind the old saying,
> "Stocks must fluctuate."




The flow of fluctuations on this chart have been frozen since the End of 2008



> I still hold
> 
> But ........Anything could happen from here.
> 
> ...




The stock went into hibernation or it did in fact die...


Harsh conditions are the cause of both conditions
relative to the resiliency of the particular example

But if the stock is still alive then it "must fluctuate"

No movement on this chart yet  ( it is scaled to identify a more significant (The Significant) reversal . But The market depth has shown some life esp on Thursday..

Market cap got down to below 4 mil dyor 

There is over a year of fluctuations on this chart...

At the end is a dampening pattern 
with lower tops coming to an end ( froze ) in Jan ( The *1* )

Supply shifted down and then evaporated ( rotated away )
Demand was not too keen either though there were bids available..

Maybe it is wake up time

Two things now would help

A positive series of events that leads to an increase in the population of interest ( that is what an event is as distinct from news that often is not an event , So these two things are really the one thing )

Real events cause fluctuations that will show up on this chart.. 

 An event can be anything ( even some ones technical signal , even related to the broader market ) and need not be news ( often isn't ).... The response ( esp at the half way points )then becomes important .

Market cap might be low
But so  would be cash on the balance sheet..

last sale was .009

motorway


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## motorway (25 April 2009)

log chart 16% X 1

16%    all the talk about square root scales
and how prices trend etc

( It is the Log equivalent of the .00035 X 1 Chart )

If the stock froze only because of market conditions
And normal service is to resume ( ie the dynamics unfolding from the prior bottom )

These are the signs we would expect to see

There is a Higher LOW
and an IMPULSIVE move up form that low

( dull to active acceleration )

one or two boxes up ( esp three )
and a high is broken in the sense of angles

The more I look at Gann the more I see P&F

eg "angles are extensions of bottoms and tops ---- When you buy or sell on an angle you are buying or selling at a top or bottom..

But units on the P&F are of work
And we are not predicting anything ( in the sense of time ) But measuring
The dynamics unfolding and the technical positions being created..

motorway


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## Datsun Disguise (15 July 2010)

Looks like this was only of technical interest when it was of any interest at all - however...

Their speeding ticket caught my eye today and from a fundamental point of view it also caught my interest. Something called IPTV - like Voip but with pictures. This means basically TV on demand - telstra have just started advertising their 'T box' which I think you need to access this type of new fangled idiot box - I assume Go connect will be providing a channel?? The Goconnect model is a music channel, their revenue will be from advertising. They say that they are the only listed IPTV company in Australia - couldn't make much sense of their investor presentation, but planning to look further. Could be a good speccie as an early adopter - maybe a takeover target for a bigger fish.

For reference up 0.9c to 3.7c intra hi of 4c.


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## J&M (15 July 2010)

this was in the Eureka report where David H recommend a buy 

he brought 10,000 at .028 not with real money 
just a recommendation of what the readers of the report may choose to buy  
There is also a full page noting the reasons to buy these shares

If you want the full copy of the notes Will try to copy and past it 
let me know 

I am a reader of Eureka but at this time chose not the buy these shares 

James


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## Miner (15 July 2010)

J&M said:


> this was in the Eureka report where David H recommend a buy
> 
> he brought 10,000 at .028 not with real money
> just a recommendation of what the readers of the report may choose to buy
> ...




Dear J & M

Like you I also refrained to commit on this one even Speculator recommended it. 

Some times his fluke does work as there are many more recommendations where the prices he bought have not rose up.

I do not hold GCN and may I bring your attention to the copyright issue often published by Joe Blow. Please check that before publishing the Eureka Report in ASF .


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## Datsun Disguise (16 July 2010)

J&M said:


> If you want the full copy of the notes Will try to copy and past it
> let me know




perhaps you could put up a synopsis? I reckon there might be something in this - traded it today, but want to spend some time understanding exactly what this IPTV is all about and what GCN have got to make it work for them. My initial thoughts are  that IPTV is the first step in the right direction towards removing the need for illegail downloads. 'on demand' TV. how good would it be to not have to worry about recording another program again, or not stressing about opening your computer up to file sharing net works (or the concern that some media company decides to make an example of you in the courts..)

If I find time to do it I'll post my findings....


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## J&M (17 July 2010)

Datsun Disguise said:


> perhaps you could put up a synopsis? I reckon there might be something in this - traded it today, but want to spend some time understanding exactly what this IPTV is all about and what GCN have got to make it work for them. My initial thoughts are  that IPTV is the first step in the right direction towards removing the need for illegail downloads. 'on demand' TV. how good would it be to not have to worry about recording another program again, or not stressing about opening your computer up to file sharing net works (or the concern that some media company decides to make an example of you in the courts..)
> 
> If I find time to do it I'll post my findings....




hello D D 
I have sent you a PM with the David H report 
I know nothing about IPTV so will take some time to find out a little more 
Like Miner has stated Not all the recommendation from David H come good 
but he had a good track record last year. This year not so good but its early days yet


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## Albi (25 July 2010)

On Friday again jumped 14%. This stock is tempting me. I also read the report and speed ticket answers. Will it continue to rice or can fall back.


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## motorway (23 December 2010)

This has come well and truly back to life
Some volume coming in 
Like the look of the action

key levels marked

it already looks like the pattern of failures after all the excitement
has changed

expect some resistance if it does start to breakout 

I hold

Motorway


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## motorway (12 January 2011)

Updated chart

Apex completely filled


*T*imes UP

lets see some action
at least we see response

congestion = where traders were willing to buy and sell
Shape and position gives indication

volume not revealing much except absorption !

which I guess* is* much

needs catalyst
needs news

Motorway


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## motorway (25 January 2011)

> it already looks like the pattern of failures after all the excitement
> has changed
> 
> expect some resistance if it does start to breakout
> ...




same same 

more confirmation
but  closer maybe to a breakout

Ignore a column on a P&F chart at your risk !

Motorway


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## alexc2005 (7 September 2011)

Jeez, bit of a rocket up GCN the last couple of days.

from 8c ->18c last week
then dropped back to 10c and now at 20c!

Some people are riding those waves and smiling all the way to the bank!


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## McCoy Pauley (7 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Jeez, bit of a rocket up GCN the last couple of days.
> 
> from 8c ->18c last week
> then dropped back to 10c and now at 20c!
> ...




I think you might be missing a decimal point. I'm seeing a quoted price of 1.9c/share for GCN.


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## alexc2005 (7 September 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I think you might be missing a decimal point. I'm seeing a quoted price of 1.9c/share for GCN.




yes sorry!! .8 to 1.8 and 1 to 2.2c

woops


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## alexc2005 (30 September 2011)

A bit of movement today on the share price. Up 23% so far.

Announcement came out as a reminder of the Priority one shares entitlement.

Looks kinda promising hey.

I will keep watching, not convinced so far.


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## alexc2005 (30 September 2011)

41% now. Bloody hell this stock gets some momentum when it gets going.

Constant huge daily movements from this stock. I daresay if you daytraded it smartly you could easily be up 500% by now.


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## alexc2005 (5 October 2011)

More crazy volume on this stock yesterday and today.

Investors trying to get in before the share arrangement/offer they have going?

Closes on friday. Could be a good opportunity, but we will see. Not really sure how it works to be honest.


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## alexc2005 (20 October 2011)

Shareprice has dropped out of sight over the last couple of days.

Have been keeping an eye on them while in full day training and bought some yesterday at a "good" price of .016.

The massive price drop can be blamed on the closing date of the Priority 1 share offer of which the shares need to be "settled" by 21st (friday)

Sadly I, didn't realise this was the case when i purchased yesterday, however, had i bought tuesday i would have been down 50 odd % right now due to the crash, so i guess it is a double edged sword.

Anyway, interested to see where this goes, Theoretically will jump up to 3c when priority one lists at that price.


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## tugga (25 November 2011)

Anyone here on this?

Looks like blue sky is approaching. The valuation and listing of P1 are only around the corner.

GCN having a 50% stake in P1 means that if the P1 listing is about 30c then I would imagine we could be headed there also!

Good Luck


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## alexc2005 (25 November 2011)

tugga said:


> Anyone here on this?
> 
> Looks like blue sky is approaching. The valuation and listing of P1 are only around the corner.
> 
> ...




Sure am 

Got in at 1.6c, loving the surge in shareprice.

Although it has somewhat cancelled out my drops elsewhere haha. Just wish i bought more when they pulled back to 1.2, or even at .8 when i was first considering them!

All good though


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## tugga (25 November 2011)

In at 1.4 ... Thinking about buying more. Just waiting on a retrace.

But the question is.... Is there going to be a retrace!?


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## alexc2005 (27 November 2011)

tugga said:


> In at 1.4 ... Thinking about buying more. Just waiting on a retrace.
> 
> But the question is.... Is there going to be a retrace!?




While i realise HC is a bunch of uprampers/downrampers all in the one place.

I don't get the feeling there will be a retrace unless P1 is valued at less than 30c and doesn't list.

Otherwise its onwards and upwards. 

The only disappointing thing is that I only bought 200 thou shares at 1.6c, while it's nice turning a current profit, it would be nice to put more in and reap the benefits.

We are looking at a 2000% increase if GCN gets to 30c to match P1.

enough to offset all my current losses and more . Tempted to sell some of my downers at the moment and reinvest. Even if only for a day, that's all it would take (potentially) to make back a 20% loss....


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## motorway (27 November 2011)

> Ignore a column on a P&F chart at your risk !



And down it went  ! Bottomed out at .006 !


Huge volumes and many shareholdings cleared out
Volume dried up
But since ==> Volume and price have expanded massively

massive volume ...chomping through supply
yes could easily have/expect a significant pullback

But the price holding ground and the ever increasing volume 

Suggests the population of interest is expanding

Means new dynamics

And the charts display significant change of behavior here.
I would like to see the price start to move up with more ease (less volume relative )

A very significant number of people holding this are in profit
That is there has been a huge change in the technical position

And all this while markets have been not very supportive.

All through the "accumulation" 
Volume was way ahead of price
action was totally inharmonious

That is a Screaming look Here.
and time to be guided by Price and Time


Motorway


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

Really surprised at the lack of discussion on ASF for GCN considering it's run over the last few trading days. I would look for an open of high 5's today and a close which will be determined by whether we get an announcement or not. Jumped in yesterday and ready for the ride


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## alexc2005 (29 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Really surprised at the lack of discussion on ASF for GCN considering it's run over the last few trading days. I would look for an open of high 5's today and a close which will be determined by whether we get an announcement or not. Jumped in yesterday and ready for the ride




Have to say I agree.

I have been trying to get people interested for months and get a bit of discussion going.

There may be alot of down/up ramping on HC, but at least they are onto little beauties like GCN.

I'm waiting for a retrace before buying more, may not even buy more. Diminishing returns at the moment since I got in early to begin with.

Worked out assuming they go to 30c that the following outcomes are possible:

Leave as is - 187500 shares -> $56250
Buy $3000 more @ .048 = 250 000 shares -> $75000

Lol, seems like a no brainer, but I'm happy just getting my 2000% return on my initial investment without putting more money in (also promised myself I wouldn't buy anything until I sold something else, i.e. don't keep dumping my savings into shares)


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

Haha they have the smacktalk going and all that at HC, helps that toono is a substantial holder now as well. I don't really see a retrace here, sellers are getting greedy watch how they're just moving their sells further and further back, there's a massive gap that needs to be filled provided the 5.7+ open goes through. We'll just wait and see but my view is that the buyers are just going to follow the sellers up and we could get a weird rally on (still) nothing at all LOL


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## Chasero (29 November 2011)

I'm surprised by how much it's moved tbh!

I was very sceptical with all the talk on HC ramping GCN, and now it's got a rocket behind it 

grats to all holders, pity I didn't get any!


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

Chasero said:


> I'm surprised by how much it's moved tbh!
> 
> I was very sceptical with all the talk on HC ramping GCN, and now it's got a rocket behind it
> 
> grats to all holders, pity I didn't get any!




Yeh same here. All hype, this is buying the rumour to the max LOL angry, toono and bassyabbie have the community hooked over there. Friend suggested it would be good to see a run to 6.5c and take out the large sell order sitting there.

Still no announcement. I wonder what's holding them up...


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2011)

Please note that this is ASF not HC, and there is no reason to really talk about what other members are doing/saying on other forums.

This looks like a typical pump and dump to me, where posters are saying that they are signifcant holders etc etc and then somehow always miracuously get out near the high and are never seen from again.

Buyer beware i say


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Please note that this is ASF not HC, and there is no reason to really talk about what other members are doing/saying on other forums.
> 
> This looks like a typical pump and dump to me, where posters are saying that they are signifcant holders etc etc and then somehow always miracuously get out near the high and are never seen from again.
> 
> Buyer beware i say




GCN released an announcement stating there has been a new significant holder and the poster has acknowledged it was him?

Also I just wanted to spark up some conversation here. Not really much point in the thread when no one discusses even one of the more significant days in the company's history...


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## alexc2005 (29 November 2011)

If P1 lists at 30c or greater, i don't see how this could be a pump and dump.

Let's just hope the announcements are positive.

I will admit its hard not to get caught up in the upramping. A lot of people are falling into that trap. Mind you, each to their own.


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

Also the WIFI deal they potentially have going is HUGE to say the least...


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## alexc2005 (29 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Also the WIFI deal they potentially have going is HUGE to say the least...




Yepp.

The market knows it too.

Let's just see how patient the market is though.

Still holding strong.


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2011)

Instead of just saying how potentially huge this stock is, why dont members here provide some details of their potential projects so other ASF members can comment on it?

ASF is all about analysis, and the more you provide, the more other people will comment on it and give you different opinions


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## alexc2005 (29 November 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Instead of just saying how potentially huge this stock is, why dont members here provide some details of their potential projects so other ASF members can comment on it?
> 
> ASF is all about analysis, and the more you provide, the more other people will comment on it and give you different opinions




Good point.

As far as i know they have a couple of things going on, there may be more, but these are the main ones.

1) WIFI network in melbourne announcement coming up, believe this is a public use city wide wifi network 
2) priority 1 valuation, P1 is a 50/50 deal with Go connect so therefore the share price that it lists at is expected to be the price that gcn goes to. It is expected that this price is above 30c.


In other news WOW, the momentum on this stock is insane. Up another 26% today.

Seems liek that .046 price i was considering yesterday is long gone. 

Glad to be aboard.


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> 1) WIFI network in melbourne announcement coming up, believe this is a public use city wide wifi network
> 2) priority 1 valuation, P1 is a 50/50 deal with Go connect so therefore the share price that it lists at is expected to be the price that gcn goes to. It is expected that this price is above 30c.




1. Wifi networks aren't cheap as far as i understand it. Where are they getting the money from? How long will it take to build? What figures have the put out for projected revenue?

2. Can you link me to the company annoucement giving this 30c valuation?


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## skc (29 November 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Good point.
> 
> As far as i know they have a couple of things going on, there may be more, but these are the main ones.
> 
> ...




How many shares outstanding will P1 have vs GCN (which has 901.2m shares)?

If P1 has the same number of shares as GCN then it have a market cap of $270m... how much are they listing that company at?


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> 2. Can you link me to the company annoucement giving this 30c valuation?




The company has no made this announcement yet. If it had, GCN would not be at 6.5c right now. It is the expected the announcement will be made within this week.


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> The company has no made this announcement yet. If it had, GCN would not be at 6.5c right now. It is the expected the announcement will be made within this week.




So where does this supposed 30c valuation come from? It seems to me as though this number is plucked from the sky which is not how ASF works. What happens if they decide to list at 5c a share? Or 2c? Or what happens if it is all pure speculation and there is no alternative listing?

If anyone is going to provide a price target, it needs to be backed up by analysis showing how you arrived at that figure. I suggest members posting int his thread read the posting guidelines, as any further posts conatining unsubstantiated price targets will be deleted.


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## snsdmonkey (29 November 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> So where does this supposed 30c valuation come from? It seems to me as though this number is plucked from the sky which is not how ASF works. What happens if they decide to list at 5c a share? Or 2c? Or what happens if it is all pure speculation and there is no alternative listing?
> 
> If anyone is going to provide a price target, it needs to be backed up by analysis showing how you arrived at that figure. I suggest members posting int his thread read the posting guidelines, as any further posts conatining unsubstantiated price targets will be deleted.






> P1 has a 50/50 joint venture with GCN for their entire business, now P1 are at present getting a valuation done on their proposed business, this is part of the listing process, ie. they are not doing an IPO so to satisfy ASX listing rules they must have at least 500 shareholder each with $2k worth of P1 stock.
> 
> So P1 gave free stock to GCN holders, and had a formula that meant they need the P1 shares to be valued at 30 cents in order to satisfy the $2k holding for each shareholder.




So that is why the valuation.

Good enough for you?


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> So that is why the valuation.
> 
> Good enough for you?




I'm a little confused to be honest. Can you give a link to the company announcement showing this formula so i can look at it in detail?

500 shareholders at $2k each only equates to $1m, it doesnt matter what price they issued those shares at. Or did they give the shares to more than 500 shareholders?


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## skc (29 November 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> I'm a little confused to be honest. Can you give a link to the company announcement showing this formula so i can look at it in detail?
> 
> 500 shareholders at $2k each only equates to $1m, it doesnt matter what price they issued those shares at. Or did they give the shares to more than 500 shareholders?




Prawn, this whole thing is a joke.

P1 is a private unlisted company. They want to list without an IPO. As part of the ASX listing rule they need 500 shareholders with $2k each. They achieved that by giving away some free shares (~15% of shares outstanding) to GCN holders based on a *notional face value of 30c*.

Where's the 30c comes from? IMHO the backend of the P1/GCN directors. P1 supposed to have some 700m shares on issue and poof we've just created $200m of value out of thin air.

Any valuation on GCN is a joke as well. They don't hold 50% of P1 shares like some said here. GCN has a 50/50 JV which was established earlier this year. The JV alledgely has *a potential customer base *of 400m, but actual customers of a much much lower number (if there's in fact any).

People are jumping up and down saying Groupon is valued at $X billion even though they are losing money. GCN will go to China, will go to Europe, free internet in Melb... It's like a time warp back to 1999...

BTW, in 1999 GCN's business model was to offer free internet services (dial up) but subscribers are forced to watch slow video ads that are streamed to them (dial up!). Yes back in those days who burns more money gets the highest valuation.

Another example of delusional crowd behaviour imo.


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## prawn_86 (29 November 2011)

Cheers SKC, my thoughts also i just didnt have the time today to research as thouroughly as you do.

Other participants of this thread wanted some discussion so at least we are providing that. Still seems like a typical HC pump and dump to me, and i have seen a lot of them over the last 5 years. So many i cant even remember the names of all the different stock. CDU, AKK (i think), some ****ty diamond co in Africa that had HC members supposedly on the board etc etc Same old same old


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## McLovin (29 November 2011)

A WiFi network to compete against 4G. Good luck. 4G will make WiMax (what BGL is offering) redundant.


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## tugga (29 November 2011)

The Wifi deal I believe is to put wireless hubs on public transport as well as the terminals. They want to replicate what is already up and running in any European counties.

Now I don't know what type of speeds they are going to be offering, and if its anything like what is offered at free hotspot areas like McDonald's or nominated cafes. Then its not going to work as after a few people log on the system gets clogged.

I believe the system is going to be similar to what is available at international airports.

With current mobile phone plans offering 2-3gig of internet access, I don't really see a need for the average user to log on and painfully watch ads before they can browse.

I think its going to be aimed at people that are using their ipads and laptops on trains and buses etc...


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## McCoy Pauley (29 November 2011)

tugga said:


> The Wifi deal I believe is to put wireless hubs on public transport as well as the terminals. They want to replicate what is already up and running in any European counties.
> 
> Now I don't know what type of speeds they are going to be offering, and if its anything like what is offered at free hotspot areas like McDonald's or nominated cafes. Then its not going to work as after a few people log on the system gets clogged.
> 
> ...




How does GCN and its partners intend to monetise their offerings if this is their target market?  Through advertising?  It's a head-scratcher for me, although I confess I have no more than a passing familiarity with the company through David Haselhursts posts on the Eureka Report over the last few months on GCN.


----------



## tugga (29 November 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> How does GCN and its partners intend to monetise their offerings if this is their target market?  Through advertising?  It's a head-scratcher for me, although I confess I have no more than a passing familiarity with the company through David Haselhursts posts on the Eureka Report over the last few months on GCN.




AGM is today/tonight so I guess we will have to wait for that. Fingers crossed that good questions get asked and they answer them correctly. Otherwise, tomorrow could be a blood bath!

The stock has risen on hype and and cold water that is thrown onto this fire will put it out completely I believe.


----------



## motorway (29 November 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Please note that this is ASF not HC, and there is no reason to really talk about what other members are doing/saying on other forums.
> 
> This looks like a typical pump and dump to me, where posters are saying that they are signifcant holders etc etc and then somehow always miracuously get out near the high and are never seen from again.
> 
> Buyer beware i say




Yes prawn this is NOT HC .. where is YOUR analysis 







> This looks like a typical pump and dump to me'




Chart ? A critical review of announcements ?

I am all for the right kind of ignorance !

RDW Said it all !

But what good the wrong kind of ignorance ?




> I, therefore, claim that:
> You need never read anything on the financial page of your newspaper
> except the table of stock prices and volumes.
> 
> ...





massive volume
Price finally I would judge has caught up ..

That then  defines all previous action as "ACCUMULATION" 

There was a new  substantial shareholder notice recently .


A Number of announcements pending ..
I would like to see at least one of those this week.

As far as the chart
If this opens at .07 tomorrow
no reason it can  not push to new highs. ABOVE THE 2010 HIGHS.
I think RDW would agree with me .

*I hold .. So DYOR *
I agree nearly everything about this  looks HIGH RISK
note I said Nearly .. The one thing that doesn't imo is the CHART.

At least as at  close today 

Motorway


----------



## motorway (29 November 2011)

tugga said:


> AGM is today/tonight so I guess we will have to wait for that. Fingers crossed that good questions get asked and they answer them correctly. Otherwise, tomorrow could be a blood bath!
> 
> The stock has risen on hype and and cold water that is thrown onto this fire will put it out completely I believe.




AGM has already been and gone !

And the stock has in fact  risen on massive buying !

111,902,839 shares just today

Motorway


----------



## erichmj (30 November 2011)




----------



## tugga (30 November 2011)

motorway said:


> AGM has already been and gone !
> 
> And the stock has in fact  risen on massive buying !
> 
> ...




Sorry I was thinking of PEN haha and just so you know their AGM wasn't very good ha


----------



## skc (30 November 2011)

motorway said:


> *I hold .. So DYOR *
> I agree nearly everything about this  looks HIGH RISK
> note I said Nearly .. The one thing that doesn't imo is the CHART.
> 
> ...




The chart never lies... and it's great to see traders like yourself capitalising on a strong momentum play.

It is just sad to see some others who get sucked in thinking this is a share for their kids, or are completely confused in their "valuation".


----------



## snsdmonkey (30 November 2011)

Well, well. Here we have a cap raising (http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111130/pdf/422y9rlg9qcmbz.pdf) at I would say an average of 3.78c. Sold out at 6.2 today after digesting the news, support looks pretty good I would say at the low 5's at the moment.

Friend has called up Richard who said that this capital raising was done last Friday when the SP was much lower. CEO to be trusted?


----------



## alexc2005 (30 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Well, well. Here we have a cap raising (http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111130/pdf/422y9rlg9qcmbz.pdf) at I would say an average of 3.78c. Sold out at 6.2 today after digesting the news, support looks pretty good I would say at the low 5's at the moment.
> 
> Friend has called up Richard who said that this capital raising was done last Friday when the SP was much lower. CEO to be trusted?




So forgive my ignorance and inexperience but what are the implications of this? If the capital raising has already taken place, there should be no effect on shareprice? I guess there is a negative sentiment with everyone expecting a different announcement AND the fact that they are still raising money?

Share price seems to have dropped at first, but now seems to be recovering slightly.

EDIT: now back to open..


----------



## motorway (30 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Well, well. Here we have a cap raising (http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111130/pdf/422y9rlg9qcmbz.pdf) at I would say an average of 3.78c. Sold out at 6.2 today after digesting the news, support looks pretty good I would say at the low 5's at the moment.
> 
> Friend has called up Richard who said that this capital raising was done last Friday when the SP was much lower. CEO to be trusted?




3.78c is about right ... Again "everything about this looks HIGH RISK
note I said Nearly .. The one thing that doesn't imo is the CHART." At least as at NOW.

It is not one of the flagged announcements. QUITE THE OPPOSITE .. With all the "good news" to come. You could have expected any capital raising to be delayed .



> Friend has called up Richard who said that this capital raising was done last Friday when the SP was much lower. CEO to be trusted?




The two prices suggests it was done last Friday ..



> CEO to be trusted?




That quote from RDW has a *DOUBLE MEANING*.. if not mutiple meaning

How do you know such things as you and SKC ask

You either KNOW ( eg you really done the research ) or You Let the chart inform you.

The Composite MAN ...  Who is made up of the informed and  uniformed , leader and laggards .  The  open today provides a ''TEST"  







> CEO to be trusted?



We soon see in the response ==> back to .066 as I finish this post

Motorway


----------



## snsdmonkey (30 November 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> So forgive my ignorance and inexperience but what are the implications of this?
> 
> Share price seems to have dropped at first, but now seems to be recovering slightly.




Depending on who you trust there are vastly different views. The CEO has stated in a phonecall only (so don't go bullying me for a link to an announcement or anything) that the capital raising was done on Friday. I would say the share price would've been at around the 2c level when this was done if he is being honest and so the capital raising would indicate confidence in GCN. 

However, if the capital raising was done today, that would mean that the company is valued much less than the supposed P1 (at 30c), and therefore, also GCN. Based on current market sentiment I would like to think the former is true, price seems to have rallied back to the open already so someone knows something (people have called up Richard?).


----------



## marioland (30 November 2011)

Well, if they know the company is worth 30c per share they would have waited with the capital raising thing until a higher share price, so I reckon they're very risky. Just my opinion.


----------



## snsdmonkey (30 November 2011)

marioland said:


> Well, if they know the company is worth 30c per share they would have waited with the capital raising thing until a higher share price, so I reckon they're very risky. Just my opinion.




Isn't it's already a higher share price. 2c --> 7c?


----------



## motorway (30 November 2011)

marioland said:


> Well, if they know the company is worth 30c per share they would have waited with the capital raising thing until a higher share price, so I reckon they're very risky. Just my opinion.




You only need to look at the cash statements to know that they have very little working capital .

But that was true when the share price was  .006 and it still  true today even after the placement imo . 

But that is not what matters ... If P1 is really worth .30 .. GCN shares will soon resume making higher prices and at the very least the share price will find support .

I am not surprised they needed to raise working capital for the purposes in the announcement. You need working capital to work !

Motorway


----------



## snsdmonkey (30 November 2011)

Well not sure if this adds anything to the discussion but I'm back in at 6.3. Lesson learnt to read and digest announcements better LOL

I believe nothing has changed since yesterday and hope for an announcement soon...


----------



## alexc2005 (30 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Well not sure if this adds anything to the discussion but I'm back in at 6.3. Lesson learnt to read and digest announcements better LOL
> 
> I believe nothing has changed since yesterday and hope for an announcement soon...




Good move.

A lot can be made trading this share on the highs or lows. I wish i had the time.

if you look at the massive gap between the highs and lows of the day, some have been making a buck.

This doesn't really change anything as it's already occured. Still waiting on announcements here.


----------



## skc (30 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Well not sure if this adds anything to the discussion but I'm back in at 6.3. Lesson learnt to read and digest announcements better LOL
> 
> I believe nothing has changed since yesterday and hope for an announcement soon...




You read the announcement correctly. The market is wrong 

No nothing has changed since yesterday. It's still hot air galore.

But hey, Bitcoins can go up to $32 a pop so what do I know about market irrationality?!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22781&highlight=bitcoins


----------



## McLovin (30 November 2011)

tugga said:


> The Wifi deal I believe is to put wireless hubs on public transport as well as the terminals. They want to replicate what is already up and running in any European counties.
> 
> Now I don't know what type of speeds they are going to be offering, and if its anything like what is offered at free hotspot areas like McDonald's or nominated cafes. Then its not going to work as after a few people log on the system gets clogged.
> 
> ...




Exactly. This is about 10 years too late. If you're doing work then it's unlikely your employer will allow you to sign in over a public a WiFi network (I guess with a VPN it wouldn't be such a big issue). As you point out public WiFi tends to be painfully slow, even when it's a fee for use service.


----------



## motorway (30 November 2011)

McLovin said:


> Exactly. This is about 10 years too late. If you're doing work then it's unlikely your employer will allow you to sign in over a public a WiFi network (I guess with a VPN it wouldn't be such a big issue). As you point out public WiFi tends to be painfully slow, even when it's a fee for use service.




People either have to read the announcements and understand them.
Or read the charts and understand them.
Or both

The other way imo  does not work
Not reading the announcements and not reading the charts  


GCN has a number of J/Vs

Eg with Wifi.. GCN are not spending any money building any of the networks ..



> GoConnect to represent Netbay Internet in advertising sales to WiFi hotspots in
> Australia
> GoConnect  Ltd (GCN) is pleased to advise that it has entered into an Advertising
> Representation Agreement (Agreement) with Netbay Internet Pty Ltd (Netbay). Under
> ...




I expect today's  close will be revealing .. Given esp  the volume today.

Right Now ... the action looks positive ..


Motorway


----------



## McLovin (30 November 2011)

> Netbay’s free WiFi service is expected to be rolled out in the December quarter of this
> year to a number of high traffic locations in Melbourne estimated initially to have about
> 500,000 users per day.




That sounds extremely optimistic, almost laughably so.

AT&T runs 29,000 WiFi hotspots (it's free for some existing customers* and for others either a single use charge or monthly charge) across the US and only recieves 3.2m connections/day. I find it very difficult to believe that a  free WiFi network (with all the slowness and advertising that comes with it) centred around the CBD of a city of ~3.5m people will get 500k connections/day.

*All AT&T iPhone customers are eligible for free WiFi. Last year AT&T sold 15m iPhones on contract. All smart phone customers spending more than $30/month on their contract are eligible for free WiFi. In total AT&T Mobility have 100m subscibers. Broadband subscribers were around ~16m, and they are also entitled to use the free WiFi (obviously there would be some overlap with Mobility customers).


----------



## skc (30 November 2011)

> Advertising in banner and video commercials will be targeted to the users based on age, gender and location of the users so that users will be receiving advertisement that will be relevant to them.




Seriously!


----------



## snsdmonkey (30 November 2011)

Ok how about we analyse the stock technically then? Would you have a different view on it apart from the potential business?


----------



## Ajax (30 November 2011)

I got excited by this stock over the last few days and picked it as my December tip.

My self imposed trading rules stop me buying a stock whose shareprice has risen parabolically. The chart today suggests my trading rule saved me from a bad trade.  

Maybe another round of hype will come into this stock. Having David Haselhurst (The Speculator) recommending this stock (however at far lower levels and pre an entitlement to shares in Priory One) makes me think there is some value here.

Thanks to the more reasoned posts on this forum (versus the Gooooooooooconnect! and Whooshka posts on another forum). I really appreciate the reasoned information/analysis.


----------



## motorway (30 November 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Ok how about we analyse the stock technically then? Would you have a different view on it apart from the potential business?




yes sure ...Will say something later tonight..

In the meantime read this I will be using this methodology and terminology 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10020&p=263842&viewfull=1#post263842


note



> Cause and Effect
> 
> is about what is the reason those holding have for holding
> strong or weak hands
> ...




change that to "It won't go up until after they sell" 

Motorway


----------



## alexc2005 (30 November 2011)

So, speculator has sold his parcel at 7c.

Good pick of the high haha.

I wish i had all day to sit there and watch it.


----------



## McLovin (30 November 2011)

Oh..If I'd known it was this pie in the sky I wouldn't have attempted a serious reply in my earlier post. 

This is from the company last year for it's uctv.fm offering, which once you get through all the froth and bubble just looks like an unpopular version of Youtube with a bit of Myspace built in...



> - Valuation will ultimately be comparable to valuation of Free To Air (FTA) television networks.
> 
> - Once the TV consumer has experienced free on-demand TV, and can watch programs whenever and whatever he
> chooses, other than some premium content which he may choose to pay per view, he will not want linear or pay TV
> ...




Given the presentation is almost a year old, they should be valued at somewhere around $800m now. If you want a laugh have a look at how they have come up with that value.

http://www.goconnect.com.au/corporate/pdf/GoConnect Investor Presentation Dec2010.pdf

I wouldn't trust a thing anyone associated with this company says. 


And a little background. Here's the list of top 100 Australian websites, with numbers of unique visitors/month. 

http://www.google.com/adplanner/static/top100countries/au.html

Now, let's discuss more important things like will the world end on January 1, 2000 because of Y2K???


----------



## motorway (1 December 2011)

At the time of my last post on the thread 
This is how I was looking at it



> bouncing between .058 and .062
> see who wins  a close below .058 puts a lot back underwater
> in between  .058 to  .062   ok to move ahead tomorrow
> 
> above .062 and a real vote of confidence




All the action was in the morning 
The announcement initiated  a sell off

Supply overcame demand
Demand was seen to meet Supply
and Demand then overcame Supply

Ok Who won that initial battle ?

Price and Time ==> I judge reveals Demand did .

It could have then have pulled back and finished at a Higher High
( the price movement tests the extremes of the ranges )

But price more or  less sagged into the close
With volume increasing into the close=> some absorption , but  then the last push up displaying no real demand..

So we could ,*expect weakness to continue at the open.
*

But I on the balance of the early action ( the bulls winning )
and the sagging action that was absorbed,

Anticipate that demand will reassert and the 2010 highs will be passed.

If we look at a bigger picture P&F we can see That No column goes directly to heaven or directly to Hell.

We can see that each column builds the cause for the one that follows. That a series of columns defines phases of accumulation and distribution... 

We can see that the recent move up was fairly extended both in comparative length and in distance from the very clear base .

A normal expected correction would  be 50% of that move.

So far the effort ( today's volume ) has not produced an equal result .. There has been  some absorption .. ( inharmonious action )

Without that announcement I was expecting with the momentum ( this is again TIME in one of it's aspects ) and the volume ( this is effort ) ==>and along with the nice formation the movement broke out from ( this is cause ) ==>That a correction would have occurred above the 2010 highs.

So I am still holding and looking to see where demand now  starts to emerge and overcome supply. I would anticipate that, that will be the bottom of the correction.. 

That is==>That the next Up column on this P&F chart *will* pass the 2010 highs

If it doesn't then that will be a red flag that the analysis is WRONG
and the last point of support ( The bottom of this column of Os that are still to be locked ) will become  very important ...

The tops and bottoms of the Xs and Os are points of support and supply

There is  7 years of battles visible on that chart .. But it is not of any time frame

The diagonal lines project forward from  pivotal Points 

THE CHART IS BULLISH
WITH A CLEAR BASE
atm in a correction

when will the next up column occur ?

Not till 







> " after they sell"



Just like this down column did not occur till 







> after they had bought




A hint on when and where to BUY and SELL maybe !

A trade has to be opened and Closed

cause has effect (important point .. this is one thing)

TEST and RESPONSE
CAUSE and EFFECT 

These are names for the the columns of Xs and Os

Every column is always both 

Motorway


----------



## ob1kinobi (1 December 2011)

Thanks for your contribution to the thread motorway.

You share some interesting persepectives.

I took profits yesterday, and may look to re-enter after further signs of strength or a +ve anns from mgmt.

Your posts and language are almost mystical. 

I don't know much about Wykoff?

But appreciate your analysis

Cheers


----------



## skc (4 December 2011)

I spent a fair bit of time looking at GCN...

The more I look at this the more bemused, amazed and saddened I feel. 

I am bemused at the gullibility of people who are blinded by greed and convinced by mis-information, charades and pipe-dreams.

I am amazed by how well orchestrated the whole pumping process has been.

I am saddened by people on the other forum who seem to believe... like they are brainwashed.

Take a look at GCN's quarterly reports... employees dropped from 30 to 15 people, only $11k in the bank and a revenue of $45k. Does that look like a business that is expanding, or capable of expanding?

Take a look at the so called Priority One Network Group... a company with no website, only registered in March this year, and no real signs of meaningful operation, is supposed to have a market capitalisation of $300m upon listing?

Take a look at the listing requirement for ASX... issues like you cannot achieve spread by giving shares away for free (which is exactly what P1 is doing), asset and profit test etc. All evidences pointing to P1 won't be listed.

Take a look at the supposed blue-sky opportunities. GCN wants to produce 7 IPTV channels - with what content? How are they paying for the production? Filming on an iphone with staff? What about the supposed 100,000 merchants with 400m members? Not real. It's only P1's supposed collaboration agreement which "allows it to reach" those numbers. It's only a target...

In the face of absolutely overwhelming fundamental evidences, it doesn't matter what the chart says. It actually wouldn't surprise me if there was one last hurray... the P1 valuation can be any number they make it to be... the same way GCN managed to "value" themself at $800m.

The only thing that I can't figure out... how could have this ramping worked? 

But if this ends well for long term believers, I will give up fundamental analysis for good.

And, according to the primary ramper on the other forum.. people like me who don't hold shares but question the merits of a company must have alterior motives... may be I want to ramp it down and buy it cheaper, or I must have been hurt by this company in the past. And that's good enough argument for the lemmings over there to discredit anyone who offer negative evidences. It is just so sad...


----------



## motorway (4 December 2011)

skc said:


> I spent a fair bit of time looking at GCN...
> 
> The more I look at this the more bemused, amazed and saddened I feel.
> 
> ...




I could give you reasons to explain all your points...
Yes I have looked into them

But what degree of confidence would I put on them Vs the keeping in harmony with the chart ?  

its ok imo to look at all the things thst RDW warns against. As long as the chart has the final word ...

 Why because I am only a " Hitchhiker" I am in no position to buy the whole "shebang".. If I was driving I would know exactly where I was going. As a Hitchhiker I need The Composite MAN.. Who is ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to take me where I want to go. I have no control over him.

* I can accept a ride or decline it and there is my POWER..*



> The only thing that I can't figure out... how could have this ramping worked?
> 
> But if this ends well for long term believers, I will give up fundamental analysis for good.




 Two fabulous observations  esp the Your first sentence..

Never BUCK the TREND .. But do not follow it from behind . The key word is *HARMONY*

and asymmetric information is another.

*A trend is a series of higher highs and HIGHER LOWS *

GCN is back to a 50% retracement   zone  and at more than one scale.

Motorway


----------



## McLovin (4 December 2011)

motorway said:
			
		

> I could give you reasons to explain all your points...




What are they?


----------



## skc (4 December 2011)

motorway said:


> its ok imo to look at all the things thst RDW warns against. As long as the chart has the final word ...




What's RDW?



motorway said:


> Why because I am only a " Hitchhiker" I am in no position to buy the whole "shebang".. If I was driving I would know exactly where I was going. As a Hitchhiker I need The Composite MAN.. Who is ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to take me where I want to go. I have no control over him.




I have no problems with traders who trade the chart and don't get attached to things. And frankly I spent quite some time investigating this because I am interested in making money joining the madeness (too late now for GCN, but I am sure other opportunities will come down the track) as a trader, even though I made my post with a fundamental hat on.

It is those long term believers (I am still finding hard to believe that they do in fact exist) who I find bemused and saddened with. But hey, it's not my money they are playing with so if they want to believe, they can back the crazy stories all they want.



motorway said:


> Two fabulous observations  esp the Your first sentence..
> 
> Never BUCK the TREND .. But do not follow it from behind . The key word is *HARMONY* and asymmetric information is another.
> 
> ...




Again, no arguments from me. But the keyword for me in this case is *GRAVITY*. I don't really doubt that GCN could pop up higher still, but it won't escape the pull of the fundamentals forever. My guess is it will have a almighty jump on the release of the P1 valuation. If that jump takes out the old high at 7c we might see more silliness. If it doesn't then it will be all down hill from there.

There's asymmetric information alright... the crowd is being played and some don't know about it.



McLovin said:


> What are they?




I would like to know as well...


----------



## ob1kinobi (5 December 2011)

RDW - has to be R.D.Wyckoff, I'd say. Motorway seems to be a devotee.

RDW has a trading system for sale if you happen to be lookng for one.

Motorways posts are a great read.


----------



## motorway (5 December 2011)

ob1kinobi said:


> RDW - has to be R.D.Wyckoff, I'd say. Motorway seems to be a devotee.
> 
> RDW has a trading system for sale if you happen to be lookng for one.
> 
> Motorways posts are a great read.




Anyone interested or ever read any of my posts should realize who  RDW is  

Just update the chart.

Remember if it is going to go up  







> "It won't go up until after they sell"




Have they SOLD YET ?

Volume _was_ lower today.

On the 50% level   







> A normal expected correction would be 50% of that move.



 ==>....http://enantiodromian.blogspot.com/2009/12/half-way-point.html

On some pointers on when when to Buy  http://enantiodromian.blogspot.com/2009/11/way-to-make-money-in-stock-market.html

(THAT is a TRICK QUESTION )


Not too  many know there are at least TWO half way points

One on an arithmetic scaled chart and ( maybe the more primary ) One on a Log scaled chart ... Which often is found near the 61.8% level on a arithmetic scaled chart 

Such is the only _magic_ of FIBS imo ..

And such is the only magic of the 50% level imo too ( You judge with it - That still makes it a magic tool )

Motorway


----------



## skc (6 December 2011)

motorway said:


> Motorway




Motorway are you still in the trade?

Would you be so kind to share your stop and how it is determined - price, volume, depth, time, announcement or some combination of these?

In non-mythical language preferrably


----------



## motorway (7 December 2011)

McLovin said:


> What are they?




GCN rallied hard in 2010 on the back of the intial mergers and IPTV promise
followed was a tie up with SONY and then LG ( much later )

There was a retrace from that rally
and then it started to push higher 

It stalled in September of that year..
Why ?  Does it matter ? and who knows for sure ?

It is enough that it went sideways and down
went into the wilderness
finally finished at .006

Two significant factors imo if we are looking for a story to tell.


LA JOLLA COVE INVESTMENTS &

CASHMERE MEDIA.. ( GCN itself is a given )

WHY has it rallied from .006

Does it matter ? Here is the crux or at least a crux of stock market technique.



> Something is only CHEAP. IF it is going to SELL at a HIGHER PRICE in the FUTURE..
> IT is NOT CHEAP based on anything that is PAST HISTORY. ( THAT IS ANYTHING ).. IT is especially NOT CHEAP because The current price is LOW compared to a prior  PRICE...
> 
> Something is only CHEAP if THE LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS UP.
> ...




The trick part to the question is ==> When is something stopped going DOWN

OK so ==> WHY has it rallied from .006 ?

  P1 yes  ( "FREE SHARES"  etc ).. but also

LA JOLLA and CASHMERE seem to be no longer issues

Note I am not saying there is anything wrong with
LA JOLLA and CASHMERE in themselves ,, I am SAYING that  the combination of factors forming a triangle with GCN. I think derailed the 2010 dynamics..

So I see it now as being in a sense back exactly where it was just before sept 2010
In the recent move it almost made that 2010 high .. Retraced ( on the back of the Capital Raising  announcement ) and then came the delay announcement !


OK All that might be true or not
That is what I can see

I will and would rather rely on the Composite MAN and would not disagree (too strongly ) IF someone  said you either do some very good research or you better off not knowing anything... 

*In any case you do not SECOND GUESS THE CHARTS*

At least one very high profile trader who did so did  come to a sad end. 

Often nearly always we are better off not knowing anything. esp if we are only Hitchhikers.

You could also say GCN is the reason and for sure it is.

But their are three corners to a TRIANGLE.
So it was a Dynamic that unfolded.

ALSO their were other major shareholders SELLING too

Motorway


----------



## motorway (7 December 2011)

skc said:


> Motorway are you still in the trade?
> 
> Would you be so kind to share your stop and how it is determined - price, volume, depth, time, announcement or some combination of these?
> 
> In non-mythical language preferrably




YES still in the trade

imo selling is nearly absorbed if not already
Was there a buy today ?

Yes an aggressive one with at stop just above yesterdays LOW
The possible Buy presented itself when today it rallied to .045

There are several  possible types of entry.

Today's was based on The Halfway points.

The buy itself way not at .045
But the fall into the close ( part of that trick question .. it does not have to be going up TO BE GOING UP ... REMEMBER HIGHER LOWS make for an UPTREND TOO ,, AND THOSE HALFWAY POINTS ?.. There is a link in a previous post with some info )



> GET THIS------>
> 
> 
> The one that goes down ( or UP ) is not the same as the one that returns
> ...






Think about this nothing ( I say is MYSTICAL )

-->

The action takes place on a field
But the action is the field
and the half way point ++>IS THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN KNOW AHEAD OF TIME. WHERE THE FIELD IS and HOW IT IS MOVING.

WHAT ELSE MATTERS 

Here are three others  


(1) The Price movement
(2) The Time elapsed in each movement 
(3) The Comparative lifting power or pressure of each movement

( That does not exhaust what to _MEASURE_ ..But that ALONE will take you very far  )

MOTORWAY


----------



## alexc2005 (8 December 2011)

Announcement released.

P1 valued at just over 30c.

Share price action reflects this with a move to a top of 7.1c (from 3.9c close).

10c by the end of the week? We will see.

I bought more at 5.3, Not much $$ but just felt like i had to put something in it!!

Initially went to buy at 4.8, by the time my order had gone through the price was at 5.3, dayumm.

See what happens.


----------



## motorway (8 December 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Announcement released.
> 
> P1 valued at just over 30c.
> 
> ...




looking very good atm

consolidating atm holding ground because of this

looks as I write .getting ready to close strong maybe over .07

IE re accumulation   ( talking just about the infra day action )

Motorway


----------



## skc (8 December 2011)

Fundamentally I maintain my "can't defy gravity forever" call.

The P1 directors said shares have face value of 30c, and the "independent" valuation comes out at 30.35c. Within 1%.  

And a valuation of $273,163,550... talk about false precision.

The valuation purports that year 2 EBITDA multiple of 6.4... at 20% discount that means they think they can achieve EBITDA of ~$51m in year 2. Current year number on cards issued, transaction volume and revenue? 0, $0, $0. But hey the independent valuer said "a high degree of certainty" so what do I know. 

And just to put a bit of perspective into this. Ezybond, the payment system that P1 wants to piggybacking-off, is valued at $20m GBP or so. Another perspective... MySpace was sold for $35m in June. How many visitors does MySpace has compared to GCN's IPTV channels?

Agree that technically the close is very important... and may push up towards 7c once all those who were trapped last week have their exits - unless all the insiders rush to the exits at the same time.


----------



## McLovin (8 December 2011)

skc said:


> Fundamentally I maintain my "can't defy gravity forever" call.
> 
> The P1 directors said shares have face value of 30c, and the "independent" valuation comes out at 30.35c. Within 1%.




I noticed too that the "independant" valuer has not been named. 

If this turns out to be legit I will walk backwards to Perth.

The valuation is a farce. Especially the bit about the DCF valuation being "adjusted to only take into account revenues with a high level of certainty...". Were that statement true the DCF would spit out a big doughnut.

Good luck on the TA, it seems as though everyone is playing musical chairs and eventually the music will stop.


----------



## motorway (8 December 2011)

skc said:


> Agree that technically the close is very important... and will likely push up towards 7c once all those who were trapped last week have their exits.




Little to go on in the announcement in regard to assumptions and what they are based on..

But the close today might well be a pointer . So it is important in that regard as well.

Your comments on those trapped is apt and also always lagging behind.

There are those more or less informed. There are those who know all about P1 because ?  they just do. eg they know the personnel etc . They know the valuer etc

In other words they are in a position to make a judgement ( Not talking insider trading 
If so they will buy or sell==> while others sell or buy !
So the close is important for a number of reasons

Motorway


----------



## skc (8 December 2011)

McLovin said:


> If this turns out to be legit I will walk backwards to Perth.




I will print you a Tshirt that says.. 

"I was hopelessly wrong about GCN. Ask me how."

Similar to this one.


----------



## skc (8 December 2011)

skc said:


> I will print you a Tshirt that says..
> 
> "I was hopelessly wrong about GCN. Ask me how."
> 
> Similar to this one.


----------



## McLovin (8 December 2011)

I'll wear that for sure! 

I'd probably get more "hits" on the street in that than any of the GCN websites. Their independant valuer would then value "Brand McLovin" at $400m +/- 0.1%.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 December 2011)

skc said:


> I will print you a Tshirt that says..
> 
> "I was hopelessly wrong about GCN. Ask me how."
> 
> Similar to this one.




SKC = Steve Keens Child???  

If this company can get a listed valuation half the size of Cabcharge within a year i'll do something drastic also


----------



## skc (8 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> SKC = Steve Keens Child???




Lol. I just had a vision of Steve Keen in Darth Vader's voice telling me he is my father.



prawn_86 said:


> If this company can get a listed valuation half the size of Cabcharge within a year i'll do something drastic also




May be you can ask cabcharge to enlist the service of this independent valuer and start a ramping campaign in all the taxis.


----------



## PinguPingu (8 December 2011)

Wow and I thought Lynas was volatile. In and out today for a measley $160 profit 

But there was no way I was taking a big positon on this one, I guess even at my young age I'm not that much of a risk taker.


----------



## motorway (8 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> SKC = Steve Keens Child???
> 
> If this company can get a listed valuation half the size of Cabcharge within a year i'll do something drastic also




Prawn do you use TA , FA or NA  ( No Analysis )?  


..................



> The action takes place on a field
> But the action is the field
> and the half way point ++>IS THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN KNOW AHEAD OF TIME. WHERE THE FIELD IS and HOW IT IS MOVING.
> 
> ...




Ok we can all measure the halfway points==>  current zone is  .05 , .054 , .058 


(1) The Price movement was-->  tremendous with a lot of ease of movement to the         
       high.

(2) The Time elapsed in each movement --> up was swift = the ease of movement
      comparatively lot longer down = Bulls WON 

(3) The Comparative lifting power or pressure of each movement. ==>The move Up pipped   the high at .07  got to .071 The move up was really one movement with no real corrective moves. The move down to .057 into the close was a series of moves with little EOM  there was more selling pressure .. But this pressure could not make new low ground into the close ( Was a retest at .057 )

Everything considered I will give these room to swing and look for higher prices

The playing field ranges from .036 to .071   atm

Motorway


----------



## prawn_86 (8 December 2011)

motorway said:


> Prawn do you use TA , FA or NA  ( No Analysis )?




I've stated my thoughts. This is the same as many other ramped stocks on certain other sites. CVI, CDU are the main 2 that come to mind but there are haps of others.

Technically, of course you can make money off it, but fundamentally i dont see how they can pluck a number out of thin air and come up with a $250m valuation for a company that is essentially starting from scratch. It's like me coming out and saying "oh hey, i just thought of 'x' and me and my independent valuer reckon its worth $500m so get on board because in 2 years time i'm going to have a company listed and worth half a billion dollars" 

I just think those holding for fundamental reasons should be very careful they are not left holding this stock for the "long term" when/if it goes below their buy price.

I'm actually surprised by your semi snide remarks Motorway.


----------



## motorway (8 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> I've stated my thoughts.
> 
> I just think those holding for fundamental reasons should be very careful they are not left holding this stock for the "long term" when/if it goes below their buy price.
> 
> I'm actually surprised by your semi snide remarks Motorway.




Fair enough ! And I did had add the   To emphasize it was not 100% serious .

And It was not. Certainly not any personal attack intended.



Motorway


----------



## McLovin (8 December 2011)

motorway said:


> Little to go on in the announcement in regard to assumptions and what they are based on..




With all due respect, there's enough in there to know it's BS. I've never heard of someone giving a DCF to within +/- 1% (I'm surprised the valuer isn't worried about possible legal ramifications of giving such an apparently watertight number). By giving such a small margin you are by extension implying you have a very, very good idea of what the DCF should be. I've never seen that done for a blue chip, let alone for a startup with no revenue. The blurb about it only measuring revenue that is highly likely to occur is the cherry on top.

I have no idea technically how it looks (and I wish you the best of luck trading it), but from a fundamental perspective it's no better than a bag of magic beans.


----------



## motorway (9 December 2011)

> A trade has to be opened and Closed




Seeing a lot of this atm



> Ok we can all measure the halfway points==> current zone is .05 , .054 , .058




Important Now..

looking for "Resilience" 

Motorway


----------



## prawn_86 (9 December 2011)

I'm not at home so cant get the BRW issue, but a quick scan online reveals the tenth fastest growing company this year had a turnover of $17m and its more than a year old. Also another company that was founded in 2006 and has reach $80m revenue this year.

This shows that in order to get a company from 0 to say $25m profit (apply 10x pe would give the market cap of 250m) is virtually impossible. I dont think even Facebook grew at that rate...


----------



## poverty (9 December 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> This shows that in order to get a company from 0 to say $25m profit (apply 10x pe would give the market cap of 250m) is virtually impossible. I dont think even Facebook grew at that rate...




What's Facebook?


----------



## motorway (9 December 2011)

poverty said:


> What's Facebook?




Don't know 

But Prawns research sugests they would have a market cap much smaller than GCN


We have Chaotic Action atm 




> *THE EXPANSION AND CONTRACTION of  the AGGREGATE TIME HORIZON is THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF ALL TRENDS..*
> 
> The point is .
> IT HAS TO BE CHANGING and it is THE WORK on the "FIGURE CHART" that CHANGES IT...... But when ?
> ...







> *CHAOTIC FLUCTUATIONS characterize the BEGINNINGS and ENDS for VERY GOOD REASONS and  are a TELL TALE SIGN..*




Has to do with when a floor or ceiling is approached 

Eg  The first steps of a Toddler compared to the those of a very elderly frail person.
             Chaotic Fluctuations !

A new emergent trend is characterized by such Chaotic Fluctuations
( as is an Ending One )

The emergent trend is heralded by Precursor and Catch up effects !
The ending trend is in turn  by Overshoot  and delayed ending efects

Think of the toddlers new first steps compared to the frail old persons last ones.

*Think of How the dynamic will fluctuate around the Half Way points.*

Mention of Risk in the thread ... Consider How risky to be buying HIGH and SELLING low

Consider ( for  Wyckoff Students ) Where the Springboard is  found

http://enantiodromian.blogspot.com/2010/01/vibrations-and-fluctuations.html


Motorway


----------



## motorway (10 December 2011)

> Here are three others
> 
> 
> (1) The Price movement
> ...




From this -price movement alone we are able to judge the supply and demand,
the points of resistance and support, and the trend.

.045 is important now . A confirmation of strength would be some spacing between that juncture (Important Point of  Old Resistance , _A_  Last point of Supply )

And where this bottom ( forming ) finally is seen to occur .

Consider --> WHY are beginnings so Chaotic ? 

==> *THE EXPANSION AND CONTRACTION of the AGGREGATE TIME HORIZON is THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF ALL TRENDS..*

How does the AGGREGATE TIME HORIZON Expand ?

By in part ( A large part ) ==> change of OWNERSHIP .. In other words a change of the TECHNICAL POSITION..

All shareholders holding at a LOSS to Some Shareholders Holding at a LOSS to 
nearly All ( If not ALL ) Shareholders Holding at a profit.

It takes "WORK" to cause this transfer.



> When you are looking for an opportunity to buy, watch for the down waves
> in the market and in your stock. RDW




If you someone said  Now is the time to Buy
I would not disagree.

But whatever research you DO...Do your OWN !



> 1) Is there potentially an increasing "Population of Interest"




Yes




> 2) Is there a steady stream of favourable events ?




Yes imo.





> 3 etc




We will see 

So .045 for Monday to judge strength

Motorway


----------



## motorway (14 December 2011)

Action really narrowing down. ( a lot of the noise gone )

A lot of chaotic action behind now .. All ?  Atm it is swinging in a 2 tic range

The Apex of which  is about .055 ( if you think of wild swings narrowing down like a cone )

levels of support  have been  occurring at higher prices --So far.

Time to watch closely imo

Motorway


----------



## motorway (15 December 2011)

Need  to see support confirmed now

.05 would be great
.047 would be fine
.045 would be OK

below that would be a lower low.

( question to ask then is why should there be a lower low )


* Need to see support confirmed.*

Need to some some sign of strength.==> Any sign of demand overcoming supply.



> Action really narrowing down. ( a lot of the noise gone )




==>"AWAIT (PREVIOUS) SUPPORT"

Motorway


----------



## skc (15 December 2011)

motorway said:


> Need  to see support confirmed now
> 
> .05 would be great
> .047 would be fine
> ...




So your stop is <4.5c or there abouts?



motorway said:


> ( question to ask then is why should there be a lower low )




Did you mean from a fundamental or technical perspective?


----------



## motorway (15 December 2011)

It is set up for a good move .
But imo anyone considering buying now needs to see Support Confirmed .
But also to be ready to jump on

yes .045 is the danger point



> Did you mean from a fundamental or technical perspective?




Both , they are the same.

from the link I gave earlier



> As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks down and keep them down. There is nothing mysterious about this. The reason is plain to everybody who will take the trouble to think about it half a minute. Suppose an operator raided a stock -- that is, put the price down to a level below its real value -- what would inevitably happen? Why, the raider would at once be up against the best kind of inside buying
> 
> The people who know what a stock is worth will always buy it when it is selling at bargain prices.




*The people who know what a stock is worth will always buy it when it is selling at bargain prices. *

These people are those who know it is a bargain TECHNICALLY or FUNDAMENTALLY or Both or _whatever_


> Echoing back Through Reminences , Wyckoff and Charles Dow--->
> 
> It is best summed up by understanding that when a stock gets to be too cheap, it will stop going down. As long as it is still going down, it is not too cheap!





*It is best summed up by understanding that when a stock gets to be too cheap, it will stop going down. As long as it is still going down, it is not too cheap! *

This simply and alone. If put into practice imo would save people a lot of grief.
And it is SIMPLE.

But then if we can also identify the turning points ? 



Motorway


----------



## skc (15 December 2011)

motorway said:


> *The people who know what a stock is worth will always buy it when it is selling at bargain prices. *
> 
> These people are those who know it is a bargain TECHNICALLY or FUNDAMENTALLY or Both or _whatever_




Do you think your analysis on the fundamentals would be clouded by what you see on the technical? It is difficult to remain unbiased when another perspective appeared to be so conclusive... 

Which aspects of the fundamental GCN story do you find compelling? 



> As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks *up *and keep them *up*. There is nothing mysterious about this. The reason is plain to everybody who will take the trouble to think about it half a minute. Suppose an operator *ramp up *a stock -- that is, put the price *up *to a level *above *its real value -- what would inevitably happen? Why, the *ramper *would at once be up against the best kind of inside *selling*
> The people who know what a stock is worth will always *sell *it when it is selling at *inflated *prices.




Isn't the opposite also true?


----------



## snsdmonkey (15 December 2011)

Another announcement: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111215/pdf/4239c2l8fhw4pw.pdf


----------



## motorway (15 December 2011)

skc said:


> Do you think your analysis on the fundamentals would be clouded by what you see on the technical? It is difficult to remain unbiased when another perspective appeared to be so conclusive...
> 
> Which aspects of the fundamental GCN story do you find compelling?
> 
> ...




Isn't the opposite also true ==> YES , But  consider the life cycle of crowd behavior .

The beginnings and endings will behave very differently.

But in the end YES you are right

What I mean is this. At the bottom . only those who know will BUY
But at the top only those who do not know will BUY .

There is a lot more "do not knows"  than "knows"
So at a top. long after the knows have sold and gone . The many "Do not Knows" can still Buy and attract more buying.

This quote from the Wyckoff Thread



> The point we fail to remember is that public opinion in a speculative market is measured in dollars, not population. One man controlling one million dollars has double the weight of five hundred men with one thousand dollars each.
> 
> This is why the great body of opinion appears to be bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom. The multitude of small traders must be, as a plain necessity, long when prices are at the top, and short or out of the market at the bottom. The very fact that they are long at the top shows that they have been supplied with stocks from some source.
> 
> ...




" You can distribute ALL THE WAY DOWN " because there are always the " Do NOT KNOWS " who think they are buying a Bargain .

So if we think of a circle as a market cycle . This circle is deformed by the life cycle of the crowd.

As RDW says .. Waves of buying and selling gather followings . Gather means there are early adopters and laggards..

So as I said in an earlier post



> The emergent trend is heralded by Precursor and Catch up effects !
> The ending trend is in turn by Overshoot and delayed ending efects




 I Know all about the Fundamentals that can be known ( that anyone can glean by reading the announcements and looking importantly at the History of the Company )
But they are to me only a good story. That could have a very happy ending .

The more I have experienced the risks and rewards of the market

The more and more analysis of  DEMAND AND SUPPLY as seen in  PRICE VOLUME and TIME of Quoted PRICES.. Becomes only more important. OF supreme importance

Motorway


----------



## skc (16 December 2011)

motorway said:


> I Know all about the Fundamentals that can be known ( that anyone can glean by reading the announcements and looking importantly at the History of the Company )
> But they are to me only a good story. That could have a very happy ending .




Let me give you a few more pieces of fundamental facts.

*Capital Raising*
- On 30 Nov GCN annonuced a private placement of $1.063m by selling 28.125m shares (18.125m @ 2c and 10m @ 7c, avg price ~3.78c) underwritten by Sino Investment Services Pty Ltd (ASFL No 246936), a company owned by Sino Strategic Investments (ASX code SSI).
- Richard Li is the chair of GCN and a director of SSI.
- SSI has been suspended from trading since Aug 2010, it has not lodged any financial accounts since then. It's last financial report on 1 May 2010 showed the company had tangible assets ~$1.6m, and liabilities of $7m. 
- GCN has yet to issue Appendix 3B for the 10m shares @ 7c. 

Based on these facts, a reasonable person may ask 
- *Why hasn't the 10m shares @ 7c been issued *since the capital raising announcement 2 weeks ago, while the tranche for 18m shares @ 2c has already been issued.
- *How is SSI supposed to underwrite the offer *when it has no asset and is not really a going concern?

*Independent valuation*
- SSI's financial report on 1 May 2010 carried intangible assets of ~$60m from goodwill and gaming rights that were determined based by "*Independent expert valuation*" of an acquired business CEH.
- On 19 Oct 2010, ASIC found that SSI's accounting treatment of this intangible asset is not allowed, and these are to be written down to $0. As mentioned above, SSI hasn't filed a financial report since.
- The 1 May 2010 financial report of SSI also showed a *valuation of its gaming rights to be worth $1.08B*, or $15.21 per SSI share. 
- SSI last traded at ~30c before suspension in Aug 2010.

Based on these facts, a reasonable person may infer
- Richard Li as a director *doesn't appear to have a good record *on independent valuations.

*Priority One*
- 21 Sept 2011, CNC released a market update titled "Priority One Rewards". It says "Priority One Rewards will operate a loyalty reward and incentive marketing business delivering solutions to companies, associations, member groups and consumers". *Priority One Rewards Pty Ltd is a wholly owned subsidary of CNC.*
- 3 Feb 2011, *liquidator appointed *for CNC.
- 5 Oct 2011, the liquidator of Consolidated Capital Investment Ltd (ASX code CNC) stated that "At this stage, there are *no funds available *for any dividend to be paid to creditors or shareholders of the company".
- On ASIC record, Priority One Network Group is formerlly known as "Priority One Rewards Ltd". 
- *Peter Stafford is a Director of CNC. He is also the MD of Priority One Network Group.
*
Based on these facts, a reasonable person may ask 
- Is Priority One Network Group *the same business *as Priority One Rewards Pty Ltd?
- If so, how can a company have a* $275m independent valuation* at the same time it's apparent holder is a liquidation process where creditors will get no return?
- Is the supposed listing of Priority One Network Group approved by the liquidator? 

Based on these facts (the questions I've provided are not facts), people can draw their own conclusions... 

And yes, it might have a happy ending. Or some people might soon get calls from ASIC...



motorway said:


> There is a lot more "do not knows"  than "knows"
> So at a top. long after the knows have sold and gone . The many "Do not Knows" can still Buy and attract more buying.
> 
> " You can distribute ALL THE WAY DOWN " because there are always the " Do NOT KNOWS " who think they are buying a Bargain .




That's a good theory. There are often greater fools to sell to. Unless there is a suspension and everyone goes down with the ship. 

Gravity...


----------



## McCoy Pauley (16 December 2011)

Is Richard Li the same one associated with Pacific Century Cyber Works?


----------



## motorway (17 December 2011)

For starters SSI does not have anything to do with SIS
It does not own any equity in SIS

And SSI does not own any equity in GCN. Or have anything to do with GCN.

Today there was very interesting action at .048.

Still awaiting Support .. Still need to see Sign of Strength 

And 







> Is Richard Li the same one associated with Pacific Century Cyber Works?



 No.

Motorway


----------



## skc (17 December 2011)

motorway said:


> For starters SSI does not have anything to do with SIS
> It does not own any equity in SIS
> 
> And SSI does not own any equity in GCN. Or have anything to do with GCN.




Yes you are quite correct. I relied on the information from SSI's website http://www.sino.com.au/regulations.shtml which is out of date. 

On 4 May 2010 SSI announced that they disposed their holding in SIS and SSI nominees for an undisclosed sum. The buyer (or uyers) was also undisclosed. 

I cannot find information on who the current owner or directors of SIS or SSI Nominees are. If people are interested they can buy this information from ASIC information brokers.

However, GCN and SIS have the same address of "'SUITES 1 TO 3' 107-111 HIGH STREET PRAHRAN VIC 3181", according to ASIC and ASX data. In fact, GCN moved to this address in May 2011.

So GCN, SSI, SIS and SSI nominees have very little to do with each other...


----------



## motorway (18 December 2011)

Just a Chart update in the main.

SKC points to the past ( rightly ). But it only should have its place.

It is another reason why new early trend dynamics are chaotic.
Just like at the change of tides.

It again takes work to totally negate  a poor past and a powerful downtrend.

Technically many over the years have commented on it eg " The first sell signal in an uptrend is BUY SIGNAL " 

But You Still Have to Manage Risk and hence REWARD

so  I link to these comments I have made in the past on STOPS  

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16701&p=481156&viewfull=1#post481156.

I would point to the Volume .. its magnitude and behavior
Also the Price.

.036 is important as a major  LAST POINT of SUPPORT


Also post for information a Market Cycle
Notice Chaotic  behavior at ENDS and BEGINNINGS .
Note in this graphic.. The PULLBACK after the "PRECURSOR"  falls well below the  initial starting point and then the CATCH-UP effect on to MARKUP..

We Could or most likely  Not see that happen if it is to be an UPTREND.
It would most likely mean .. THERE IS NO UPTREND .
It could ( I give it very small probability ) be a TERMINAL SHAKEOUT

But everything is FLUX and DYNAMIC..

EVERYTHING is a RESPONSE and a TEST and Everything changes as these occur.

http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2011-12-01/ahSApiSLv_w0.html
EZYBONDS (UK) PLC - Final Results , Chairman's Address



> It was announced on the 9th of September 2011, that Goconnect Limited (GCN) a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, would implement the Ezybonds Payment Platform as its preferred payment provider.
> 
> GCN's principal activities
> are the provision of video infotainment and interactive advertising, all of
> ...




Motorway


----------



## skc (19 December 2011)

motorway said:


> Just a Chart update in the main.
> 
> SKC points to the past ( rightly ). But it only should have its place.
> 
> ...




The valuation and validity of P1 seems to me to be a pretty current issue...

So fundamntal analysis of previous announcements is looking to the past, but technical analysis of previous price and volume is looking to the future?

I can see one more fundamental scenario where GCN can have another good spike... and may be that's what the chart is indicating... 

Surely today's announcement is jocular in nature, right?


----------



## motorway (19 December 2011)

> So fundamntal analysis of previous announcements is looking to the past, but technical analysis of previous price and volume is looking to the future?




Probably understood .. YES

Why ? .. Anyone who knows this will be worth more in Six months . Must hold and buy Now to benifit .. Not after the six months passes

Anyone who knows this will be worth a lot less in six months time. Must sell and not hold today .. Not after the six months have passed... ( Six months is a proverbial Six months )

That is why TA probably understood .. Is a Study of responses in the present moment.
it is a process looking forwards .. it is not a whole bunch of lagging indicators imo. You will note I do not use any or recommend any.

To Profit from future events one must make oneself available today.
This is the meaning of Speculation ( to look out ).. 

*To sell tomorrow one must Buy first Today.*



> The study of responses … is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market."






> EVERYTHING is a RESPONSE and a TEST and Everything changes as these occur.




Today's announcement you mean the TTV one ?

motorway


----------



## skc (19 December 2011)

motorway said:


> Today's announcement you mean the TTV one ?




I meant the GCN one... they get to film an event. Awesome.  

But the TTV one is pretty funny as well.



> The PON shares are to be issued at 30 cents per share, a price which is supported by the independent valuation report obtained by PON, and is the expected listing price of PON shares on the ASX.




P1 decided to issue themselves an ASX-like 3-letter code (PON) and they "expect" the listing price to be the same as the "independent valuation".

Anyway... enough commentary from me on GCN. Anyone who cared to listen will hopefully do their own research. And good luck to anyone trading this.


----------



## McLovin (19 December 2011)

skc said:
			
		

> I meant the GCN one... they get to film an event. Awesome.




As per usual, no mention of what/if they are being paid. They also added 25% to the attendance figures (per the event website which claims 200k; GCN claims 250k). Not that it matters, because people all over the world will be watching this on GCN's platform.

It's nice to see they are in event management now too.


----------



## Bassyabbie (2 January 2012)

motorway said:


> For starters SSI does not have anything to do with SIS
> It does not own any equity in SIS
> 
> And SSI does not own any equity in GCN. Or have anything to do with GCN.
> ...




You've been busy motorway, let's hope the next couple of ann's aren't far away.

Bassy


----------



## snsdmonkey (3 January 2012)

Bassyabbie said:


> You've been busy motorway, let's hope the next couple of ann's aren't far away.
> 
> Bassy




Oh it's you. Here to ramp on ASF without the threat of a suspension? :


----------



## motorway (3 January 2012)

Bassyabbie said:


> You've been busy motorway, let's hope the next couple of ann's aren't far away.
> 
> Bassy




Still waiting for Support.

Still see the action as a large correction

Price and volume are slowly catching up with each other

There proved to resistance at .038 on the last trading day of the year.
volume came in and price eased back down .

There were signs the two days previous that a bottom is being sought

Lets see if .038 can become a point of support !

*Above that .042 will get real interesting.
*
That level has set itself up to be a real  visible change of behavior juncture.

Until we see SUPPORT
The correction still proceeds.

That is the CORRECTION !  



Motorway


----------



## motorway (3 January 2012)

Very nice start to the new year in my opinion
We need to see the action move across and break out of the current channel.

But !

 In the most  recent trading days the action has started to look clearly accumulative imo 

We will see if we can get some follow through the rest of this week
.038 was resistance.. Now it is looking more than a little like support.

Zones of Volume are moving down. We want to see THEM  ( just ) UNDER the current price

( charts and explanation on my blog )

Motorway


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## Bassyabbie (4 January 2012)

motorway said:


> Very nice start to the new year in my opinion
> We need to see the action move across and break out of the current channel.
> 
> But !
> ...




There you go motorway, that should help your chart, fully loaded


----------



## motorway (4 January 2012)

Bassyabbie said:


> There you go motorway, that should help your chart, fully loaded




There is still a little resistance to the left.


It Turned on ~ 100 mil shares. Which confirms this move down as a correction in my opinion.

Looking Very Good
DYOR  

Technically This is Set up well !

Technically 






Motorway


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## Bassyabbie (4 January 2012)

Hey Motorways, love the updates, what do you mean by,

"There is still a little resistance to the left"

I thought the buyer/s smashed the sellers in the market depth late in the day and caught the sellers off guard lol, opened it right up so to speak.

If enough punters realise we closed out of the trending channel, the buyers might start building up strongly on the buy side, it does look weak as of the close, is that what you refer to as a little resistance.

Thank you in advance

I attended the AGM and am expecting a couple of Company Makers to be announced by the end of this month, 1 or 2 already overdue and then the MOU in China for the Gateway to be signed off, I know Richard Li is currently in China/Hong Kong FWIW

Exciting times hey, it's always good to see things backed up on the chart, nice GAP at 15c from memory that needs to be filled on the last run up to I think 19.5c

I'm excited


----------



## motorway (5 January 2012)

Bassyabbie said:


> Hey Motorways, love the updates, what do you mean by,
> 
> "There is still a little resistance to the left"
> 
> ...





If you look left there is some congestion at ~ .045
There was some supply there . Price  ran up and was  Hit.
Buying power was absorbed there
and it ran down from there into the lows.

There was a small trade at .046
But .045 in the main.

Yes Buying was urgent into the close and a  base  has formed.
Valid Patterns of Accumulation
At the lows , then at that .039/.04 levels before and after. (stair steps down and up ).

Certainly seems to have the "spark adjusted" atm




> In liquid financial markets, up to 98% of all the trading can be  based on speculative positions and the hedging of those positions. These positions, being
> speculative, are temporary, and any opening trade will need to be closed.
> *The closing trade has the effect of inducing a price reversal.*
> 
> ...




So the behavior of any who were locked in at ~ .045 
10 mil shares maybe



Motorway


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## Bassyabbie (5 January 2012)

There's our confirmation, should go BUNTA in next couple of days leading up to at least 3 company makers  over due possibly to be announced over next 2-4 weeks with first next week more than likely IMHO with the Chairman Richard Li's return from China & Hong Kong.

If anybody is wondering, I'm a top 20 shareholder here,

Went to the AGM,

Am in constant touch with the board and other Top 20 shareholders FWIW, speak to a few in Top 5 lol

So just putting it out there peeps


----------



## Joe Blow (5 January 2012)

Bassyabbie said:


> There's our confirmation, should go BUNTA in next couple of days leading up to at least 3 company makers  over due possibly to be announced over next 2-4 weeks with first next week more than likely IMHO with the Chairman Richard Li's return from China & Hong Kong.




Specifically, what "company makers" are you referring to you and when did the company indicate that these announcements would be made during the next two to four weeks?


----------



## motorway (6 January 2012)

Broken out of the "Correction Channel" and moving UP.

A Very interesting JUNCTURE.

It is where the Population of Interest Could start to Increase . Ideal especially if Supply starts to DRY UP.





> Changes  in the population of interest is an often overlooked dynamic.
> ............ Buying and Selling waves gather followings !




Motorway


----------



## Bassyabbie (6 January 2012)

Joe Blow said:


> Specifically, what "company makers" are you referring to you and when did the company indicate that these announcements would be made during the next two to four weeks?




Joe,

 the WiFi Ann, is way overdue,

Priority 1 listing, PON is overdue,

Cornerstone investor/s injecting up to 5 million bucks at 30c is overdue,

Chairman and Stafford currently in Hong Kong where GCN have entered into a MOU with a Chinese gateway company of which there are only 4 licensed by the Chinese government, ie like PayPal here in Australia

These dates and timelines can be found in previous ann's, the business show interview in one of the ann's, and were all heavily discussed at the AGM I attended.

thank you for the interest Joe


----------



## motorway (6 January 2012)

Best Outcome here is for .044 to be intra day support and then a close at a high for the day.

It has been doing this all the way up
making resistance support.
.044 is the current level that could happen at.

We see.

It is the backing and filling
The Fluctuations that make a HEALTHY trend
That is how overhead supply is removed and how the 
Trend is Tested.

SO its better to dip to .044 and then close strong
Than to just go up all day and close strong.

You need to put things to the test , or see them put to the test to really know how strong they are.

Consider that YOU want to clear OVERHEAD SUPPLY.
*That will not happen if prices do not correct and test the trend*

Sellers need to SELL... If price just went up they wouldn't . They would hold off and raise there offer or remove it. But only temporarily and it  does not mean they are not there and having there effect===> RESISTANCE.

Contingent Supply  and Demand are Just as IMPORTANT .

Motorway


----------



## Bassyabbie (9 January 2012)

Nioce strong close with a Bullish Hammer Motorway. 

Let's see hey.


----------



## motorway (9 January 2012)

Looks tremendously setup for a strong move up. 

Your observation could not be more on the money imo

Any buying taking prices up
should be the real thing.

Because it will be 

NEW Initiatory Buying ( from above support )
Not like today which was
responsive buying ( from below support).

look at the last three closes

.045 up/down .045 down/UP .045 
will put some charts up latter no doubt  


Motorway


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## motorway (11 January 2012)

motorway said:


> Looks tremendously setup for a strong move up.
> 
> Your observation could not be more on the money imo
> 
> ...




Volume at .047 has ended the move.
We did not get any 







> NEW Initiatory Buying ( from above support )




It is tracking sideways in a trading range . Many will be looking for a break back above  .047
Maybe even .048 ( There was no volume there just some momentum ).


Mistake !  more important is what happens around .042/.044  and in between.

That is where we will see the Springboard.

The move has Corrected and will now setup for the next one.

As I have said .. No  Markup  Here YET.

These are small moves within a trading range of Accumulation atm

Motorway


----------



## motorway (13 January 2012)

Have to be happy with today's action !
There has been  little effective supply ( tests at .042 ) and the bulls started to wake up!
And there were  some rising supports !

Nicely "balanced"  imo 

Motorway


----------



## motorway (17 January 2012)

motorway said:


> Have to be happy with today's action !
> There has been  little effective supply ( tests at .042 ) and the bulls started to wake up!
> And there were  some rising supports !
> 
> ...




The Stock has washed out all shorter Time Horizons

It is now well set up.

Would seem to be on the springboard .



> It is tracking sideways in a trading range . Many will be looking for a break back above .047
> Maybe even .048 ( There was no volume there just some momentum ).
> 
> 
> ...




Expansion==>Contraction===>  now time to watch closely.

Motorway


----------



## motorway (20 January 2012)

OK  no interest so will leave the thread with an updated chart.







A chart like this provides  its own interpretation in any case.

Hint the current action is very much the same as the reversal pattern at the bottom.
..................imvho...........


Motorway


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2012)

Keep the posts up mw. I'm following this one.

gg


----------



## Dr.Stock (24 January 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Keep the posts up mw. I'm following this one.
> 
> gg





Also following this Motorway-keep it up.

ps The on balance volume looking sluggish though.

pss thanx for the analysis. I hold.


----------



## Chasero (24 January 2012)

Been following ur analysis of GCN with interest Motorway!


----------



## motorway (24 January 2012)

Chasero said:


> Been following ur analysis of GCN with interest Motorway!




Dr S & GG too. 

OK I will.

The last chart on my blog contains a yellow box. it counts back 100 million shares.

Consider there has been 100 million shares transacted and sitting above the current price now. 

Consider three hypothetical scenarios of stock XYZ

everyone bought at 1 and the price  is 10

everyone bought at 20 and the price is  10

*EVERYONE recently bought at 10 and the price is  10*

One of these situations will allow significant price movement
will facilitate significant price movement.

NOTE the word allow. It is not a given.

I will update the thread later.

With volume sitting above price consider what effect that cause could have ?
 it is not as simple as  =  DOWN   
It depends on who is selling and Who is buying

"There are three time frames in any marketplace: the market imposed time frame, defined by the operating hours of the exchange; the participant time frame, which is the individual trader’s time frame for buying or selling; and the opportunity time frame.
The opportunity time frame is a moment in the market that forces a participant to act because of the favourable price opportunity it offers."   J. Peter Steidlmayer 

THIS --> "the participant time frame"    at least Three of these interacting. this is the who I refer to.

Today's close might reveal



Motorway


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## motorway (25 January 2012)

"A chart of the most recent action displaying Mid pattern rally.
Test Through support forming a possible "Recoil Pattern"








Important "lines" 
At .04 ( The four 0s )
and at .043

The one X at .038
is the Higher Low seen on the other charts
It is the last point of SUPPORT

(Here is the 5 Reversal Chart)







What do Fluctuations achieve ?
What does the mid pattern rally facilitate ?   The way ahead !

For price to go UP sellers need to SELL. For prices to go down BUYERS need to BUY.

Only Then.

Look for a move UP from the close at .04 ( The last Purple 0 ).

Look for Expansion in Price and Volume

Look carefully at .043 ( The possible move past the X at .042 )

Then  for  Resistance at .048 ( remember--RESISTANCE IS ALWAYS MET UP AHEAD )

esp LOOK for a "JUMP"
IE The recoil = The back-up

The Danger Point is .038 !

Anything is still possible.

FEEDBACK and the STUDY of RESPONSES is what matters

Not PREDICTING... But FORECASTING"

Motorway


----------



## motorway (25 January 2012)

Dr.Stock said:


> Also following this Motorway-keep it up.
> 
> ps The on balance volume looking sluggish though.
> 
> pss thanx for the analysis. I hold.




OBV can go down it can go up , It can be convergent or divergent 

It can mean in all cases Accumulation Distribution or NOTHING

WHY ? There is the last 6 days of action on the chart posted ( The X chart ) ( and 6 days just happen to be the duration of the pattern ),

Which is the most important Price ( BOX ) on those days ?

The OPEN ? CLOSE ? HIGH ? or LOW ? of each of those days ?

No ! The Prices that had the most action. THE  LINES with the most Xs and VOLUME are the most important and the same with every other day or days .  

In other words the OBV is being defined in many cases by the prices that matter the least. It will define accumulation when in fact it was distribution etc .

My  Motorway


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## Dr.Stock (25 January 2012)

motorway said:


> OBV can go down it can go up , It can be convergent or divergent
> 
> It can mean in all cases Accumulation Distribution or NOTHING
> 
> ...





Thanx motorway

So this slow recoil either allows our gun to fire a bullet soon or if below 3.8 then we need more ammunition in order to fire or is a blank shot


----------



## motorway (26 January 2012)

Dr.Stock said:


> Thanx motorway
> 
> So this slow recoil either allows our gun to fire a bullet soon or if below 3.8 then we need more ammunition in order to fire or is a blank shot




Yesterday






Today







The second test at .038 was ONE trade of 41,080  shares. ( we are or should be looking for Exhaustion here ! )

Take note of the line of six 5s.
The seven .043s and now especially the double line of four .04s and four .039s .


Notice also the pattern formed.

"This gives the appearance of a wedge, apex, or dead center"


 "So this slow recoil either allows our gun to fire a bullet soon  or if below 3.8 then we need more ammunition in order to fire or is a blank shot"

Properly Understood ---YES !

What allows the GUN the opportunity to fire is the final absorption of the LAST SELLER.



> For price to go UP sellers need to SELL





Motorway


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## motorway (28 January 2012)

More Development of the pattern !
What pattern ?

The pattern of the relationships between --> PRICE , TIME , VOLUME , WORK & ACTIVITY and the patterns in their changing.

Line of Seven .04s now ! 







Motorway


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## Dr.Stock (28 January 2012)

motorway said:


> More Development of the pattern !
> What pattern ?
> 
> The pattern of the relationships between --> PRICE , TIME , VOLUME , WORK & ACTIVITY and the patterns in their changing.
> ...






The dead centre?

Life is about to form from the dust!

Thanx for the analysis motorway.


----------



## motorway (30 January 2012)

Nine .04s  ! Nice action at .042 especially

.043 needs to be just  a stepping stone to confirm breakout from this corrective move.

Good expansion in the "right" direction today.

All looks good atm.


Motorway


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## motorway (1 February 2012)

Mark Up ?






Who initiated this move ?
Who joined in on this move ?

Who = time horizons


How do we know ?

There is both a vertical and horizontal price-volume  dimension !


330 trades 	-- volume  32,028,864 
compare to yesterday !

Thirteen .049s 
High Volume Box at .05 ( red X )

Two horizontal levels marked.

The Speed of and the fulfillment of--> The upside objective ?

Other positive attributes ?

Motorway


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## skc (1 February 2012)

The release of Appendix 3B was a big positive, and the timing was exquisite. Because later in the day the quarterly report showed that GCN had cash in bank of $1,752. That's it. $1,752. No more zeros after that.

The quarterly would have hammered the share price, but the 3B (which raised $700k) saved the day. You have to take your hat off to GCN's management... they have been able to access equity capital ongoingly for a company that no reasonable person should invest in. 

It makes sense to question also, what reasonabe person would subscribe to 10m shares @ 7c when the market price is <5c, and there being plenty to buy on the ask. But as far as the company is concerned, this capital raising offers them another 3-6 months of operation so fundamentally it's a positive.

Cash receipts for the quarter was ~$55k and cash flow was negative $1m or so. But as the true believers would tell you... stop looking to the past. However, they may have said the same thing 3-6 months ago at which time this quarterly report was the future.

Technically, the stock has woken up a fair bit of late so well done to those who managed to profitably trade it. It hasn't broken 4.8c decidingly yet for me but if they put out a few more positive announcements they might get there.


----------



## motorway (1 February 2012)

skc said:


> The release of Appendix 3B was a big positive, and the timing was exquisite. Because later in the day the quarterly report showed that GCN had cash in bank of $1,752. That's it. $1,752. No more zeros after that.
> 
> The quarterly would have hammered the share price, but the 3B (which raised $700k) saved the day. You have to take your hat off to GCN's management... they have been able to access equity capital ongoingly for a company that no reasonable person should invest in.
> 
> ...




The ability to generate revenue remains to be demonstrated. 

4c is as expected no one should be surprised by the cash position or lack of revenue.

The comments on WiFi are promising,
The launch with NetBay yes..but the suggestion of further JVs would be very positive imo.

The raising at .07 was previously announced some time ago.

GCN over it's entire listed history has been always able to raise new capital at favorable prices . With one exception . That should not be dismissed lightly imo !


Why buy at .07 ?  GCN is doing deals and making connections in a wider context maybe the parties are interested in generating goodwill ?

In any case the .07 was previously announced.




> * Note that $218,000 in R&D tax rebate from Australian Tax Office received in January
> 2012 and capital raising of $700,000 via underwritten placement of 10 million shares at 7 cents each *announced on 30 November 2011* (Appendix 3B filed today) were not part of the cash flows for the half year to December 2011.




I see nothing unexpected or that should have been unexpected.
The 4C should have been no surprise and should not have hammered the share price.

The comments in the covering letter point to the more important factors that will move the share price when and if achieved.

Motorway


----------



## McLovin (1 February 2012)

Looks like more hot air from GCN. It's truly outstanding that a company with virtually no revenue and, IMO, no prospects for changing that, can manage to push out so many announcements and still say so little.


----------



## motorway (1 February 2012)

McLovin said:


> Looks like more hot air from GCN. It's truly outstanding that a company with virtually no revenue and, IMO, no prospects for changing that, can manage to push out so many announcements and still say so little.





You can not discount the fact that the company is a survivor and has connections.

"Looks" do not matter..

Delivery Now Does , yes !

.045 would be a GOOD level to start the next move UP.

launch of Wifi with Netbay YES

But the Covering letter in the 4 c
Points to further JVs in Wifi

This would be very positive imo !

People can Buy and sell in the one day
or over a few days-- means corrections to the trend.

People who Buy and Hold a "good thing" They are the ones that make the trends.

.044 would be half way back
To resume a move up from .045 would be a positive.

The 30+ million traded yesterday was not all day traders ! esp when it came out of previous day on ~ 3 million !

When it went past .048 it took on shorter time horizons.
And the chart not long after  went sideways .. actually sideways !

Motorway


----------



## skc (1 February 2012)

motorway said:


> I see nothing unexpected or that should have been unexpected.
> The 4C should have been no surprise and should not have hammered the share price.




The rise on 3B's release indicates to me that many (myself included) didn't believe the 7c placement was going to come through. It did take 2 months which is a fair bit longer than usual. Without the 3B and the new money, the 4C will show that the company is pretty much dead and it would most definitely hammer the share price. 



motorway said:


> Why buy at .07 ?  GCN is doing deals and making connections in a wider context maybe the parties are interested in generating goodwill ?




The differences between buying in a raising at 7c vs buying on market at 5c is $200k (more expensive for the investor) and that the company can continue as a going concern. To me, this placement suggests that that particular investor's motivation is to ensure the company stays alive, rather than to maximise his/her profit. You'd think that if a company has fantastic prospects but is close to insolvency, you would drive a pretty hard bargain and grab as many shares as you can.



motorway said:


> GCN over it's entire listed history has been always able to raise new capital at favorable prices . With one exception . That should not be dismissed lightly imo !




Yes and that has been great for management to keep their jobs but not particularly rewarding for shareholders.


----------



## motorway (1 February 2012)

Individual stocks are to be judged as much by what they do as what they do not do !


Motorway


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## motorway (4 February 2012)

Really interesting !

Note it did make new ground !

Also note the increasing volume concentration ...And  it at close was finding support at .045

Now consider How would  you define the active  time frame ( I prefer Time Horizon ) ?

What causes trends Vs Stop and reverse.

Every position  has a dual effect ... Every Buy at some time becomes a sell... The important question is when ?

eg people may buy and sell in the one day ! or they may buy and a decade later sell !
consider where do you want these respective volumes ? above the current price ? or below the current price ?

Consider the pattern That 5 reversal chart is showing ==> slow but sure rising supports With bearish patterns  at the tops  _which reverse_  giving rise to impulsive moves up which retrace quickly almost, _ALMOST _from their starting place

( markets in general are behaving like this on a larger scale )

A lot of volume compressed into the recent action

See where I am going here ?

Consider should we buy strength at the open ?


Motorway


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## motorway (5 February 2012)

motorway said:


> Really interesting !
> 
> Note it did make new ground !
> 
> ...




Charts Discussed above !


line of .045s are an important feature !







~ 5 Reversal









Consider should we buy strength at the open ?

It can Go Up
It can Go Sideways
It can Go Down



> Consider should we buy strength at the open ?




I would consider .045 itself  a good entry ( .044 as well )



Motorway


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## Dr.Stock (9 February 2012)

motorway said:


> Charts Discussed above !
> 
> 
> line of .045s are an important feature !
> ...






Motors

We found support at 4.1 ish.
So even though our 2 charts may slightly differ there is support at 4.1 on one of them on a 45 degree angle.
Onwards from this point hopefully.


----------



## motorway (9 February 2012)

comment from the last blog update last night !




> Very likely THE TURNING POINT
> we will see tomorrow ==>
> But we always  need to act today !









Yesterday's close is the Green 0

Motorway


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## Dr.Stock (13 February 2012)

Waiting. waiting. Waiting.
I feel like the David Carradine character in kung fu "Kwai Chang Caine"

The base is formed now.

I guess we see a run up in price preceding the next price sensitive announcement-funny that?


----------



## motorway (21 February 2012)

Dr Stock

Same opportunity Again imo 

Buying got hit with supply last time.

This Time ?

Motorway


----------



## skc (21 February 2012)

motorway said:


> Dr Stock
> 
> Same opportunity Again imo
> 
> ...




You are still holding I guess. It's got a 50% range in the last 3 months. I have no idea how one manages the risk/reward with such share price behaviour (without being stopped out and without an overly small position).

There's a lot of talk about this free WiFi generating substantial revenue for GCN, but I've yet to see any real numbers being presented. I am not an expert in online media but here's a revenue sizing exercise for people to use as a starting point. 

The free Wifi is available at Melbourne Flinder Street Station which has 100,000 people going through it everyday.

How many of these 100,000 people carry a web-enabled device? 
   Let's say 60%, so 60,000 people.

How many of these 60,000 people want to use the net while they are at the station? 
   Many people are only at the station for a short time so they may not have the need to use their devices (even though they are carrying them). Let's say 50%, so 30,000 people.

How many of these 30,000 people choose to use Wifi instead of their own 3G/4G network? 
   Again, since most people are not at the station a very long time, many tasks are easier done with their own mobile data service. So let's say 1/3 will use the Wifi, which means 10,000 users per day.

How long will each usage session be? 
Let's say 10 minutes being the average time people wait for trains.

How many ads can be displayed in 10 minutes?
You would think most people wouldn't tolerate much more than 2-3 ads within a 10 minute session. So let's say 3 so that brings the total daily impressions to ~30,000.

How much many can you charge advertisers?
Online display ads are pretty cheap - may be $10-20 cpm. Let's say the GCN ads are potentially smarter/bigger/interactive so they can charge 3-4x the rate. So let's say 5-8c per impression. 

So what have we got? 100,000 people a day, 60% with devices, 50% of them uses the device and 1/3 of them uses the free wifi, and each of them see 3 ads which produces revenue of ~5-8c each. 

Total potential daily revenue ~$1500 to $2400. Annual revenue = $0.5-0.85m. Let's round it up to $1m p.a.

Now before you say that's pretty good... that $1m is the revenue for the wifi network itself. How much is GCN's share as the sale agent who secure the ads from other ad agencies? Remember that Netbay who's paid for and run the network might want a return as well. So 20%? 30%? That's somewhere between $200-300k revenue for GCN. 

Happy to stand corrected but the numbers do not look that big on first pass.


----------



## McLovin (21 February 2012)

Gees skc, with those generous forecasts I'm starting to think you've jumped on the bandwagon!


----------



## motorway (22 February 2012)

skc said:


> You are still holding I guess. It's got a 50% range in the last 3 months. I have no idea how one manages the risk/reward with such share price behaviour (without being stopped out and without an overly small position).
> 
> There's a lot of talk about this free WiFi generating substantial revenue for GCN, but I've yet to see any real numbers being presented. I am not an expert in online media but here's a revenue sizing exercise for people to use as a starting point.
> 
> The free Wifi is available at Melbourne Flinder Street Station which has 100,000 people going through it everyday.




SKC ...So with all the Stations ?

Possibility of content ? special offers ? driving audience ?

Then possibility of such success bringing in other expansion ?

With Netbay ? or with others ? China ?..

One of the possible themes that could drive the share price  ? ( P1 to come too )

All part of Successful Tape Reading==>
A study of responses.

Yes it does not hurt to be aware of the themes 
But do not get lost in the them...

Those who really understand them
Tend to be silent or after the fact ( the fact of their selling or buying )

What is more important
what you or I think or what is true ?

What price is after another ~ 7 million go though ?
*Such is a fact we can take real bearings from 
*

Motorway


----------



## skc (28 February 2012)

motorway said:


> SKC ...So with all the Stations ?
> 
> Possibility of content ? special offers ? driving audience ?
> 
> Then possibility of such success bringing in other expansion ?




If I was valuing a single corner store, do I factor in all the other street corners they can potentially expand to? What about other product range? Hardware? Fashion? Makeup? Cars?

Using this logic, all businesses have _unlimited _potential. How one chooses to discount (or even disregard) those potentials is up to the investor. But asking simple questions like "Have they had a track record of success?", "Do they have any unique competencies or competitive advantages?" and "Have they got the funds to expand?" would guide one in deciding how much value (if at all) to put on such potentials.

It is a fact that Wal-mart and Westfield started off as a small single store and built an amazing empire... but for every Wal-mart there are 50 million other corner stores that don't make it. So let's make a distinction between possibility and probability.



motorway said:


> With Netbay ? or with others ? China ?..
> 
> One of the possible themes that could drive the share price  ? ( P1 to come too )




Again, it is not possible to value these (and all the MOUs) which are only slightly evolved from the "thought bubble" stage. The only rational way of looking at these is to consider the historical returns of the many GCN partnerships and ventures in the past to see how successful they have been. Imo the only rational answer one can arrive at is zero (in fact the rational answer is a negative number, but let's be kind and call it zero).

One can possibly argue that after failing for 10 years it is finally the time for GCN to shine. Good luck to those who invest on this view (which they are entitled to hold).

And P1... I raised the question about its history and actual ownership some posts back. If someone has done the research it would at least resolve its legitmacy, although not its worth.



motorway said:


> All part of Successful Tape Reading==>
> A study of responses.
> 
> Yes it does not hurt to be aware of the themes
> ...




I am sure there are those who know what is true. They just don't seem to be buying at the moment. 

GCN will report in the next couple of days. We know the financials will be weak but let's hope for holders sake that there will be some meaningful updates.



motorway said:


> What price is after another ~ 7 million go though ?
> *Such is a fact we can take real bearings from
> *
> 
> Motorway




You've been studying this tape over 200m shares ago... why would the next 7m going to provide real bearing? Or is that 7m just a figure of speech?


----------



## motorway (28 February 2012)

skc said:


> If I was valuing a single corner store, do I factor in all the other street corners they can potentially expand to? What about other product range? Hardware? Fashion? Makeup? Cars?
> 
> You've been studying this tape over 200m shares ago... why would the next 7m going to provide real bearing? Or is that 7m just a figure of speech?




Rate of change in price in terms of  _certain_  number of shares

Atm a trading range with the top of the range .032
and the  bottom of the range .032  



Motorway


----------



## Chasero (28 February 2012)

Just wondering,

Is it possible to find out how many shares a company has issued?

And how many shares a company has issued in the past year? 

Another forum says GCN has 6 billion shares on issue? That can't be right..


----------



## McLovin (28 February 2012)

Market cap/share price will give you number of shares on issue. GCN has 929,346,337 shares on issue, according to Iress.


----------



## Chasero (28 February 2012)

McLovin said:


> Market cap/share price will give you number of shares on issue. GCN has 929,346,337 shares on issue, according to Iress.




Thanks.. 1 bill shares on issue! Interesting


----------



## McLovin (28 February 2012)

Chasero said:


> Thanks.. 1 bill shares on issue! Interesting




Out of curiosity, why is it interesting?


----------



## skc (28 February 2012)

Chasero said:


> Just wondering,
> 
> Is it possible to find out how many shares a company has issued?
> 
> ...




Data from Comsec. You will have to fix the formating yourself.

Year    2002/06 	2003/06 	2004/06 	2005/06 	2006/06 	2007/06 	2008/06 	2009/06 	2010/06 	2011/06
Shares Outstanding (m) 	310.8 	320.2 	358.5 	371.5 	389.1 	411.8 	443.7 	491.4 	766.0 	843.7

Today 929.3


----------



## Chasero (28 February 2012)

McLovin said:


> Out of curiosity, why is it interesting?




From memory, in the past year, they did 2 capital raisings? (someone correct me if I am wrong)

With that many shares, I'm sure quite a few people are in @ 0.005. don't know how they managed to get people buying in at 0.06


----------



## motorway (28 February 2012)

skc said:


> If I was valuing a single corner store, do I factor in all the other street corners they can potentially expand to? What about other product range? Hardware? Fashion? Makeup? Cars?




Why would you not take into account what is in the announcements ?

If I said I was opening one store value = one potential store I agree.
But what did they state ?

some examples 



> ASX Release 11 July 2011
> GoConnect to represent Netbay Internet in advertising sales to WiFi hotspots in
> Australia






> GCN will be representing Netbay in securing advertisers and sponsors for
> the free WiFi (wireless Internet) service operated by Netbay* in a number of high traffic
> free WiFi hotspots throughout Australia.* Netbay is an ADSL 2 Broadband ISP operating
> in the metropolitan areas of Australia. Netbay has also entered into a separate agreement
> ...




I never saw an intention to roll out just "one corner store"

But many.

..Sure you would have a range of value. depending on one none or many.

If the announcements said just one . Then only use one !
But they did not say just one.. So you should do a range of values.



> ASX Release 24 January 2012
> RE : UPDATE ON NETBAY FREE WIFI SERVICE
> Netbay Internet has advised management of GoConnect Ltd ("GCN") that installation of infrastructure for operation and delivery of the free WiFi (wireless Internet) service by Netbay Internet to* certain high traffic locations within the City of Melbourne is nearing completion. Based on current progress, the service is expected to go live by the end of February 2012.*
> GCN represents Netbay Internet for advertising sales into this free WiFi network. GCN has been working closely with Netbay Internet to ensure that the advertising services that GCN will be delivering to the free WiFi users will be acceptable to both Netbay Internet and the end users.





Lets Not forget as I stated in earlier posts 

The Big Picture.

Such massive demand and so urgent
exhausted itself .. Too Many Weak HANDS

Gorged and Satiated !

Many I would guess are feeling a bit sick
even some revulsion..

Over Blown Expectations as to timing.
And significant DELAYS by the company..

Still if we look at the action from a larger degree.
There is a certain Symmetry.. ( remember the chaotic nature of starts )

Nothing like Demand to cause a down move .
Same when that Demand becomes SUPPLY to cause an UP move.

We had a massive JUMP with extra extreme volume
Ever since grinding down and out.
Delays have fed into that.
But mainly peoples own actions sow the seeds.

Massive JUMP
Now a BACKUP right back to ( and it is a BACK UP IE is is CORRECTIVE )

How Far ... Is .03 it ?  maybe .028 ?  .026 ?

We had very high volume and duration at .03 today after significant dullness
no selling into the close.




Motorway


----------



## McLovin (29 February 2012)

Half year result out. Despite making almost no sales the company has $4.5m in intangibles, what a laugh!

Take out the intangibles (of dubious quality) and the company has negative equity of ~-$4m.


----------



## skc (29 February 2012)

motorway said:


> Why would you not take into account what is in the announcements ?
> 
> If I said I was opening one store value = one potential store I agree.
> But what did they state ?
> ...




I don't disagree and I never said GCN's valuation should be limited to one WiFi location. I merely worked up a framework for assessing possible cashflows from the first station (just in case people were looking for millions of revenue in the current quarter), and I said the individual investor can decide for themselves what value to put on future potentials, taking into account factors such as management and financial capabilities.



McLovin said:


> Half year result out. Despite making almost no sales the company has $4.5m in intangibles, what a laugh!
> 
> Take out the intangibles (of dubious quality) and the company has negative equity of ~-$4m.




Would you stop living in the past! It's all about the future!

BTW - a bit of information on P1 to those who are interested. GCN seems to have forgotten to announce this... 

https://www.nzx.com/companies/INS/announcements/219618

It used to be a cash injection of $200k but now it's just swapping paper with paper between one unlisted entity to one listed shell entity. May be it's not important.


----------



## motorway (29 February 2012)

skc said:


> Would you stop living in the past! It's all about the future!




Interesting time fellows.

Yes the Half year
is really OLD NEWS

And it is about the future.
But that will look after itself

It will be what it will be.

IE the chart has pulled right back retracing the entire move
So many will have lost a lot of money. Not Nice !

Put that down to expectations and the delays.

eg P1 talk of by June now.

Motorway


----------



## Chasero (29 February 2012)

This stock reminds me of a lot of Metricom..

Retrace and sideways movement after rocket move.

If it follows metricom we'll see a range between 0.02 and 0.03.. then it'll bottom and slowly rise again 

Cannot predict the future of GCN sp but it's nice to know how other companies have traded like after huge bursts.


----------



## motorway (4 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Retrace and sideways movement after rocket move.
> 
> we'll see a range between 0.02 and 0.03.. then it'll bottom and slowly rise again




imo==>  A large Corrective Move To kill all the short term longs.

To  note now is the line of Nineteen  .027s and tentative and early rising supports.

Count the Implications and note that in this "last column down".  The horizontal formations are all one below each other ( So FAR ).

What has been missing to ( possibly)
Start the new Trend ?

A Sign of Strength !

Most look to Externals
When what matters is the Internal.

We could see a significant thrust of a 3 or more  Reversal or we could see
The "Horizontal Formations" start to form one above each other ( unlike the unbroken run we have had of one below )






As long as it lives ( IE the fluctuations Fluctuate )
The Technical Position is what matters.

260 million shares traded in this move down !

Edit-- "unlike the unbroken run we have had of one below "
Or is this behavior already changed ?

Motorway


----------



## Chasero (5 March 2012)

I may consider buying in at low 2 cents..

And closer to announcement dates. i.e. April-may and towards end of the year.

buy the rumour


----------



## skc (5 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> I may consider buying in at low 2 cents..
> 
> And closer to announcement dates. i.e. April-may and towards end of the year.
> 
> buy the rumour




That's a good approach to capture any upside... but how do you protect against the downside? It's not like there's a definite deadline on a takeover due diligence or something like that. They could easily announce anyday in May that P1 is off and you will have no floor under your feet.

On a separate note... would someone like to find me a ~$300m company that operates out of a serviced office?

Hint: This company also does not have a website.


----------



## McLovin (5 March 2012)

skc said:


> On a separate note... would someone like to find me a ~$300m company that operates out of a serviced office?




I'm more excited about finding out who the did the "Independent" valuation.


----------



## Chasero (5 March 2012)

skc said:


> That's a good approach to capture any upside... but how do you protect against the downside? It's not like there's a definite deadline on a takeover due diligence or something like that. They could easily announce anyday in May that P1 is off and you will have no floor under your feet.
> 
> On a separate note... would someone like to find me a ~$300m company that operates out of a serviced office?
> 
> Hint: This company also does not have a website.




Can't protect against unexpected announcements.. comes with the risks.

If trapped long, have to look for best exit.

Buying the rumour... i.e. postive anns usually works out better because people are "naturally bullish"


----------



## skc (5 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> I'm more excited about finding out who the did the "Independent" valuation.




It doesn't matter. What matters is the assumptions and disclaimers used.

Here's a valuation report done by BDO Corporate Finance for SSI (the old parent and still good friend of GCN) which gave SSI's China gaming rights a value of $788 to $905m. SSI has been suspended from Aug 2010 with a market capitalisation of $19m

http://www.sino.com.au/pdf/Final_Report_2008_02_27.pdf

BDO Kendall is a very large and reputable firm... over 48,000 employees and 1,118 offices worldwide (from Wikipedia).

But here's some of the disclaimers I found interesting from the report (p.14).



> The valuation is based on forecasts and assumptions prepared by management and there are significant uncertainties underlying the assumptions and the forecasts.
> > Whilst *Sino is responsible for the financial projections *provided to us, we have made appropriate enquiries of Sino management to determine whether there exists a reasonable basis for the assumptions underpinning the financial projections (my bolding).
> > The achievement of the prospective results is not warranted or guaranteed by BDO
> Corporate Finance. Prospective results by their nature are uncertain and are
> ...




Now a valuation done using management-supplied financial projections would not be what I would call "independent". Yet according to SSI this was an Independent valuation...



> As there have been many enhancements to the gaming business since purchase, BDO also conducted an *independent *valuation of all of the Company’s gaming rights in addition to the rights included in the
> Balance Sheet (including Welfare Lotto and Keno, Sports Lotto and Sports Betting but excluding VLT) and arrived at a value of between $788m and $905m, equivalent to approximately A$11.02 and A$12.65 per SSI share fully diluted. This represents a substantial premium over and above the total current market capitalisation of SSI and demonstrates the significant mismatch between the Company’s fundamental
> enterprise value relative to the current market price of SSI shares.(From SSI 28/02/2008 Half year announcement)




So it doesn't matter who did the valuation. In fact, if GCN was to release the name of a legitimate accounting firm, the share price might make a run (albeit 20 minutes delayed as most people buying this are amateurs with no access to live announcements), but only to be sold down soon after as the insiders continue their exits.

BTW, just to clarify my views on GCN. I actually think that the ad-supported Wifi _may _be an opportunity. My doubts here are simply on the returns that can be generated, and whether GCN has the expertise and financial capability to win in the market.

But with P1 I have strong suspisions on its actual legitimacy... any punters who invest on this basis should do their own careful due diligence.


----------



## McLovin (5 March 2012)

I see. So they're really just trying to almost hold the valuation out as an experts review rather than a tightly framed internal box ticking exercise.

I disagree on the WiFi thing, I don't think it's got a chance of ever making money. To me it seems the same as those business models that were around 12 years ago, offering ad based free dial-up internet. There's enough free wifi sans ads in the major capital cities and that will continue to grow.

http://www.freewifi.com.au/listing_...gion_id=27&listing_type=free&formSubmited=yes

According to that there are 165 free or free with purchase WiFi networks in the Melbourne CBD. I just don't see who is going to be using an ad based one.

I'd put money on this thing never making a cent.


----------



## skc (5 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> I see. So they're really just trying to almost hold the valuation out as an experts review rather than a tightly framed internal box ticking exercise.
> 
> I disagree on the WiFi thing, I don't think it's got a chance of ever making money. To me it seems the same as those business models that were around 12 years ago, offering ad based free dial-up internet. There's enough free wifi sans ads in the major capital cities and that will continue to grow.
> 
> ...




I don't know how the economics have changed over the past 12 years, but I'd imagine that costs (in hardware and data transmission) have come down a lot, while the advertising revenue has probably come down a little as well. While I've made some approximation on the revenue side, I simply don't have the data on the cost side. 

Another thing that I don't know is how the ad is actually delivered through the free wifi. You can't put the usual banner / video through the web browser, and you can't really use something that takes up part of the screen (the iphone screen is small enough). Any method that requires the user to download an app (or program etc) may be too much trouble for most. 

It would be simple enough to do a sign-in type screen where you can do some display and video ads on the webpage . This may give them the real estate space to display more than one ad per login (say top+bottom banner plus two sides and a video overlay - again getting pretty cramped for iphone), but each login session will then only see one set of ads, as opposed to being shown more ads the longer you stay login (which sounds more fair and acceptable).

Not something I'd invest in, but at least it has potential to be a real business (which is a really low bar I know).


----------



## Chasero (5 March 2012)

Looking at their financials, haven't really improved much from 2010..

Trade & other payables 2.5m??<--- Big turn off right here.

The thing I don't like about these spec companies is they do not give earnings guidances, so there is nothing to judge them against from year to year. (hence why investing in gold companies is a lot easier imo)

Their statement of cash flows also not rosy looking.

Though possible projects and potential is there?

P1 expected to list in May - June??! (other forums are saying this is not possible?) Thoughts?


----------



## Chasero (6 March 2012)

Huge selloff today..

down to 0.024....



Too risky to enter, need to see signs of a bottom first. Might reach 2c.. or even 1 c possible?


----------



## motorway (6 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Huge selloff today..
> 
> down to 0.024....
> 
> ...




Might is not a useful word

lets see what does happen
and what the signs of strength or weakness are.

In flux atm

Instability !

We have the appearance of significant weakness. An you would have to go with that atm.   But it is in process still.   When I say  significant weakness , I mean the most significant in ages . Real Sign of Weakness ... 

But it is at the Bottom of the Hill !
Ever been in a Billy cart as a Kid
*It gets scary as it gets fastest.*

And at the fastest 
IS the Bottom  !

Real Interesting atm

Motorway


----------



## sammy84 (6 March 2012)

motorway said:


> Might is not a useful word
> 
> lets see what does happen
> and what the signs of strength or weakness are.
> ...




You're a perma bull in your analysis. What would it take for you to exit?


----------



## motorway (6 March 2012)

sammy84 said:


> You're a perma bull in your analysis. What would it take for you to exit?




"We have the appearance of significant weakness.* An you would have to go with that atm. *  But it is in process still. "

"When I say significant weakness , I mean the most significant in ages . Real Sign of Weakness ... "



> Count the Implications and note that in this "last column down". The horizontal formations are all one below each other ( So FAR ).
> 
> *What has been missing to ( possibly ) Start the new Trend ? A Sign of Strength !*




note "the last column down" is the entire move down from the swing high posted on the recent charts.

It is the last column down on the larger ''Big picture charts" 
Of the multiple reversal charts.


No perma bull here !

But looking at the context within that larger current. ( Which we see in the smallest scale charts .. )




> In flux atm  Instability !



.

Instability will lead to Stability
and thence opportunity.


Seeing we need vertical movement to profit from
We should be looking at the Horizontal.

There are Two dimensions  !
one or the other can dominate.
 Have a think of their relationships ! 
( note these are not one dimensional bar charts )

Horizontal = among other things -- Stability
The chart is measuring all sorts of Exhaustion.

The longer stability
the more vulnerable to exhaustion is that stability
The more it runs into opportunity.
or becomes opportunity ( to someone )

When I say 







> Count the Implications



I mean something in particular.

A down move will be seen to have ended
when the last downside implication is negated and the first upside implication is fulfilled.

Has not happened YET

Been looking and commenting on that "looking"

Implications are negated , fulfilled or  sidelined
They become active and inactive

ATM the row ( line ) of five .026s have become important.
That could change with even the first trade of tomorrow.

Every-time the vertical is overcome by the horizontal.
What was in effect becomes vulnerable to change  or is renewed.

My comments on that unfolding to date
Have been in the form of asking the question and highlighting the opportunity.

When I say the line of five .026s are important
Does not mean that is The Turning Point .

*It means here we can watch very closely !*

TESTS and RESPONSES.

I mentioned what is important is what is Internal.

Most of the commentary in this thread is EXTERNAL.

Something to think on ( when I say that I mean me too  )

It would seem all fundamental analysis is external.
and would seem 99.9% ( more or less ) of technical analysis is external too.

That people might make well  money ( maybe a lot of money )
But in despite of their use of them !

What is the only thing that is Internal to the Markets ?

A trade for a particular number of shares at a particular point in time--and that is all. One trade following another and another and so on. Forming a two dimensional pattern _through time_.


Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (7 March 2012)

Call me dumb and stupid, but the above post makes no sense at all to me.
I'm not sure you are talking about this stock or even about the market !
Beyond me how anyone could advance their Wyckoff knowledge reading this stuff
Sorry


----------



## skc (7 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> Call me dumb and stupid, but the above post makes no sense at all to me.
> I'm not sure you are talking about this stock or even about the market !
> Beyond me how anyone could advance their Wyckoff knowledge reading this stuff
> Sorry




I've alway said that Motorway's posts are mythical... I am just not enlightened enough to make any sense out of them either. Nor do I understand how Wyckoff's method allows a share to be held all the way from 7c to 2.5c.

It is probably worth mentioning about GCN's announcement yesterday. 



> Goconnect Limited’s wholly owned subsidiary PLW Entertainment Pty Ltd (“PLW”) is pleased to announce that a binding Production Heads of Agreement between Sogua Entertainment (“Sogua”) and PLW has been entered into for Sogua’s premium recording artist, Ayi Jihu a.k.a “the Chinese Madonna”.




How can they possibly make such announcement with a straight face? They signed a binding production contract for a Chinese R&B artist who is not only a PR hoax, was already exposed in 2010, doesn't actually belong to Sogua AND has no actual talent (in singing or looks). 

It is unbelievable. In this era where anyone can google the answer in the time it takes GCN to come out of the pre-open NR mini halt, they try to pull on Lorenzo Von Matterhorn http://www.lorenzovonmatterhorn.com/ on the investing public. Which leads me to think... they cannot possibly be that stupid. Right? 

So why did they do that? I can think of 5 possible explanations.

1. They are really that stupid and didn't know it was a hoax.
2. They are really that stupid and thought the people wouldn't know it's a hoax.
3. They geniuinely think that the hoax has talent and can be turned into a star.
4. They are grasping at straws trying to push the share price up.
5. They are deliberately releasing something so stupid to push the share price down.

Take your pick.


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> Call me dumb and stupid, but the above post makes no sense at all to me.
> I'm not sure you are talking about this stock or even about the market !
> Beyond me how anyone could advance their Wyckoff knowledge reading this stuff
> Sorry




Well , ask a particular question and I will try and answer it.
Forums are for discussion and sharing after all !

Motorway


----------



## McLovin (7 March 2012)

Wow...that's some pretty heavy duty stupidity. I can't believe that scams like that can even have legs in the age of the internet.


----------



## Chasero (7 March 2012)

Can anyone please confirm the following?

GCN 

Cash on hand = $1,000

Accounts payable = $2,500,000?

Does this not mean they need ANOTHER capital raising ASAP?

Unless they get cash from advertisers from their free wi-fi???


----------



## McLovin (7 March 2012)

They did a cap raising after close of books for the half. They also have some unused finance facilities which are disclosed in the notes. I'm not sure the two combined would cover the payables, you'll have to go check the half yearly report.

If you're asking these questions, you don't want to be owning this stock, IMO.


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

skc said:


> I've alway said that Motorway's posts are mythical... I am just not enlightened enough to make any sense out of them either. Nor do I understand how Wyckoff's method allows a share to be held all the way from 7c to 2.5c.
> 
> It is probably worth mentioning about GCN's announcement yesterday.




Google the "Western Madonna" or anyone and you will find negative , positive and neutral . You will also find biased and unbiased and no doubt hidden agendas.

Google USA and read and believe everything  ?



> Nor do I understand how Wyckoff's method allows a share to be held all the way from 7c to 2.5c.



 Would it depend on when they were bought or/sold ? Could the number held be a constantly moving number ? 

Motorway


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Can anyone please confirm the following?
> 
> GCN
> 
> ...




* Note that $218,000 in R&D tax rebate from Australian Tax Office received in January
2012 and capital raising of $700,000 via underwritten placement of 10 million shares at 7 cents each announced on 30 November 2011 (Appendix 3B filed today) were not part of the cash flows for the half year to December 2011.



> The revenue anticipated from the expanded range of media products of the Company,
> the R&D tax rebate and capital raising announced since the start of the new year totaling
> close to $1 million, together with the credit facility available, are expected to provide
> sufficient capital to the Company for meeting its business objectives.




So they raised capital , they have a credit facility and they expect to earn money from 
initially the WiFi ..

IF they don't they will have to eventually  raise new capital. If you look at the history they have done this very successfully over the last 10 years with small share placements.

The big increase in listed capital has been associated with mergers with other companies.

*And they should have a much lower cost base now.
*
Motorway


----------



## McLovin (7 March 2012)

motorway said:


> Google the "Western Madonna" or anyone and you will find negative , positive and neutral . You will also find biased and unbiased and no doubt hidden agendas.




Funnily enough, when you search for her in Baidu you get very few search results.

For a woman who is apparently "the Chinese Madonna" with 100 million downloads (and no doubt copious other illegal ones) her name only returns 5,560 search results.

http://www.baidu.com/s?wd=%BC%AA%BA%FA%B0%A2%D2%C0&rsv_bp=0&rsv_spt=3&rsv_n=2&inputT=919

And nothing under MP3.

http://mp3.baidu.com/m?tn=baidump3&ct=134217728&lm=-1&word=%BC%AA%BA%FA%B0%A2%D2%C0


----------



## skc (7 March 2012)

motorway said:


> Google the "Western Madonna" or anyone and you will find negative , positive and neutral . You will also find biased and unbiased and no doubt hidden agendas.




We are not debating the merits of Western or Eastern Madonna. What we are talking about here is the truth that she is not a premium superstar with 100m mobile download.

Look at some of her Youtube video FFS. They are filmed in some school hall looking stage in UK with no sign of an audience. She's got like 300 views (probably 200 more than 2 days ago). Her record company is trying to raise $110k to film a short film featuring her.

Are these views or just pretty good facts that she's no superstar? I don't know how any holder can be not embarassed by this. 



motorway said:


> Would it depend on when they were bought or/sold ? Could the number held be a constantly moving number ?
> 
> Motorway




No. It wouldn't depend on where they were bought. In fact the lower the entry price, the worse the trade management allowing a movement of 7c down to 2.4c.


----------



## Mistagear (7 March 2012)

motorway said:


> Well , ask a particular question and I will try and answer it.
> Forums are for discussion and sharing after all !
> 
> Motorway






> When I say the line of five .026s are important
> Does not mean that is The Turning Point .



Why is 2.6 important and worth mention? 
Other than it being a recent pause within a continuation, and not containing huge volume. Not being a significant past congestion point either.

If say, you had said 3c was a significant level, being the initial level broken during the Feb/Nov 2011 basing formation, subsequently broken in the Jump Up signal (change of sentiment) 22/11/11, I might understand better in Wyckoff terms.
or
Perhaps the 4.8c level (as I mentioned elsewhere) when volume appeared and price declined.
or 
On 14/2/12 when volume again appeared and the 4c level was broken, yet you have continued to sound bullish imho.

If you could address any of these points in Wyckoff terms to aid my learning, would be greatly appreciated.


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> Why is 2.6 important and worth mention?
> Other than it being a recent pause within a continuation, and not containing huge volume. Not being a significant past congestion point either.
> 
> If say, you had said 3c was a significant level, being the initial level broken during the Feb/Nov 2011 basing formation, subsequently broken in the Jump Up signal (change of sentiment) 22/11/11, I might understand better in Wyckoff terms.
> ...




Bit pressed for time , will come back to this ~
here is the chart to consider

It is updated to this moment







The  5 is the .025 level

above that is the line of five .026s mentioned

They have become ( for me ) locked

That is they can not become a line of six now ( there would be an empty space )

They can only have  primarily a down side count now ( They can become part of an upside count but that is more advanced )

What made them important ?
The action itself ==> those trades one after the other through time. Demand and Supply met there on each swing.

*UNTIL they DIDN'T  *

what happened !
We know the sellers are there for sure.

The buyers were exhausted.

what happened to the floating supply at the moment ?
and how did holdings get gathered together ?

Same with the other phases

 How would you have described the action up to the Green Box !

Nothing Mystical HERE ..

Just demand meting supply in the moments

The Purple Xs are the daily closes.

LOOK and see the TWO DIMENSIONS

sometimes a Days action is contained in a single X
sometimes a Days action is contained in ~ 50 Xs and many columns across the chart.

There is a Vertical and a Horizontal Dimension to the Price activity
Both are moving through time.

What makes anything important is INTERNAL to the market.
The TRADES make the lines and columns.

The composite man ..

happy to say more later

ask any other questions

Motorway


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

skc said:


> We are not debating the merits of Western or Eastern Madonna. What we are talking about here is the truth that she is not a premium superstar with 100m mobile download.
> 
> Look at some of her Youtube video FFS. They are filmed in some school hall looking stage in UK with no sign of an audience. She's got like 300 views (probably 200 more than 2 days ago). Her record company is trying to raise $110k to film a short film featuring her.
> 
> ...




Please read this==> from 2009 ( and I believe I posted it earlier than that )
So I am not making it up on the spot  Also have posted on the application of such before too.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16701&p=481156&viewfull=1#post481156

As You can not step in to the same river twice !

Maybe it is the same with that word HOLD ?

I think it does matter
Where and When !

In fact it makes 
ALL the DIFFERENCE !

Surely  a Value/ Fundy would know that the price paid determines the future return.
And is the only thing you can have  control of for sure is WHEN YOU BUY and WHERE


Motorway


----------



## Chasero (7 March 2012)

Can't help but have a bit of a laugh at the recent ann though.

This Ayi person.. never heard of her and I know quite a few chinese artists

The way that announcement was presented seemed more of an advertisement for her really.

GCN working closely for a number of months to secure advertisers from the following agencies:
arts, travel, automotive, education, food... etc. Re - 14/02/11 announcement. Not price sensitive.

Needs some concrete deals from this announcement instead of this price sensitive ayi announcement..


----------



## McLovin (7 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Needs some concrete deals from this announcement instead of this price sensitive ayi announcement..




The only concrete with GCN, are the shoes shareholders will be wearing shortly before they get tossed overboard.

I can feel a Darwin Award in the offing for shareholders.


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Can't help but have a bit of a laugh at the recent ann though.
> 
> This Ayi person.. never heard of her and I know quite a few chinese artists
> 
> ...




Who determines what is price sensitive

The Company or the ASX

or are there hard rules that have to be followed ?

PLW have a long history
why would they sign someone if they did not think it worthwhile ?
They could sign any nobody if  that is what she is  .

Also I believe that    YouTube Facebook and Google are banned from within China so might explain the small hits on youtube  ---  and yes they are tiny.

Motorway


----------



## skc (7 March 2012)

motorway said:


> Please read this==> from 2009 ( and I believe I posted it earlier than that )
> So I am not making it up on the spot  Also have posted on the application of such before too.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16701&p=481156&viewfull=1#post481156
> ...




Sorry I am still not enlightened enough to understand that post. But there's no need to waste your time explaining it to me.



motorway said:


> I think it does matter
> Where and When !
> 
> In fact it makes
> ...




I said a trading method that allows a share price to move from 7c to 2.4c yet still holding is bad trade management, regardless of what the entry price is. You could have bought at 0.5c or 1.0c and still be in the green, but there's no denying that a lot of profit was left unprotected.


----------



## McLovin (7 March 2012)

motorway said:


> PLW have a long history
> why would they sign someone if they did not think it worthwhile ?
> They could sign any nobody if  that is what she is  .




Maybe the better question is, the company (PLW) has been around since 1997, if it ain't making money yet then when does it think it will? It's sold 15 million copies (or clipped the ticket in some form or another along the way) but it's still loss making. It name drops worse than even the biggest hanger-onna in Hollywood but it has little else to show for its efforts.

Here's the group they were banging on about in the last AR. Jason Derulo's name is dropped in several times. They even mention how many of Jason's songs were downloaded last year but they don't mention how many times their own artist was downloaded.

According to the AR they had just completed a "very sucessful global tour"...

http://www.youtube.com/user/Trinityplw?ob=0&feature=results_main

The number of views is a joke, hardly what you'd expect of a group who have just completed a "very sucessful global tour".



motorway said:


> Also I believe that    YouTube Facebook and Google are banned from within China so might explain the small hits on youtube  ---  and yes they are tiny.




I provided a link to Baidu (China's biggest search engine, it accounts for 70% of all searches) which had similar results.

Unfortunately, motorway, I think you're seeing what you want to see, even though reality is staring everyone in the face.


----------



## Mistagear (7 March 2012)

Motorway, 
Others here with different agenda to my questions.
Will comeback to the analysis questions later.

One aspect of the 2.6c level I would like to leave here for future reference (while I remember the total) is,
during the period on your p&f involving the 2.6c level, that price represented only 16.6%of the total traded. Am still struggling to see a particular significance in that level beyond it being a momentary corner on the pathway to a lower price.


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> Motorway,
> Others here with different agenda to my questions.
> Will comeback to the analysis questions later.
> 
> ...




As for the chart
 It did not move again and remained unmoved at the end of the day.
The last Box filling with more Volume and Time

As to volume
(your question 







> 16.6%of the total traded



  )

The figure charts boxes are filled with volume
No trade  ( A meeting of demand and supply ) ->No volume --> No Box is filled on our Figure charts...So volume ( and you will find this out for yourself ) is internal to the Figure chart , just like the waves in the ocean are filled , have to be filled with water.

But water does not make waves in the ocean and Volume does not make price movements ( waves ).

Question .. How much volume is in a P&F BOX ?
Answer .. just as much as there needs to be !
Question .. How much time ? ( the other component )
Just as much as there needs to be!

Needs to be =  what matters at that moment in time.

The volume  you see is only the  volume actualized 
And that is Not the volume that matters.. ( nothing to do with the "CAUSE" )

What matters is the demand that did not find supply
the supply that did not find demand.

The volume you do not see is what matters.

"What did not happen matters as much as what does happen"

The volume you did not see ( Did not see NOW , but WILL see later at a higher or lower PRICE ) matters

What matters is what the Figure chart reveals
===> EXHAUSTIONS ( various )

why were there only
five boxes at .026

Because demand became exhausted and that is what matters

The columns change direction as Demand and Supply in turn exhaust themselves.

They change direction for NO OTHER reason.
They do not wait ,  They do not pause.

THEY DO NOT LAG...


And they do not change because some amount of time passed
or amount of volume traded or  any other reason. 

They change when it MATTERS.

They change when the Composite Man makes them change.

The Figure Chart
is called the "Manipulation Detector" ( consider why not volume ? ==> if I _were _ to sell 1,000,000, shares to myself that would be manipulation 10,000,000  ,100,000,000  would be  massive manipulation ,who cares does not mean a hill of beans. How can you tell if I am selling to myself or really SELLING ?  )

A topic of worthy study
and extreme reward ( imo  )

The chart is at the current _moment_ the same as earlier posted.

In that is a hint of the Two Dimensional reality of the market.

maybe it never moves again 


Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (7 March 2012)

> why were there only
> five boxes at .026
> Because demand became exhausted and that is what matters




I put it to you that demand was exhausted prior, 2.6c level was a pathway between significant levels.
The market moves from high to low volumes and back again. Extremes become the more significant levels where a trader is able to benefit through appropriate risk/reward plays.
2.6c level was actually a supply exhaustion, but was so time brief, and light on relative volume that it represented neither a significant volume or time level, as far as my analysis of the volume, price and time relationship is concerned. Barely greater than a random level (a corner in the pathway between more significant and complex points)

Am trying to understand your terminologies, however we seem to use very different styles (and chart type)in our respective thought processes and explanation style.
Please bear that in mind.
Interesting convo, appreciated


----------



## motorway (7 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> I put it to you that demand was exhausted prior, 2.6c level was a pathway between significant levels.
> The market moves from high to low volumes and back again. Extremes become the more significant levels where a trader is able to benefit through appropriate risk/reward plays.
> 2.6c level was actually a supply exhaustion, but was so time brief, and light on relative volume that it represented neither a significant volume or time level, as far as my analysis of the volume, price and time relationship is concerned. Barely greater than a random level (a corner in the pathway between more significant and complex points)
> 
> ...




Here is the whole leg down







Note it is a series of runs and congestions !

it is really from those horizontal congestions that Price moves to and from
High Volume is the effort seen at exit and entry.

Price Volume and Time are all Important !

It is just that many do not explore the figure chart studies or ever understand the figure chart at all.

yet RDW said of it that it is Vital
His chart of choice for intra day and extra day trading. ( short and longer term than intermediate swings ) 

The Figure chart has much to teach and is closely connected to the wyckoff reality of understanding the market in terms of Waves.

I do not disagree that .026 was a stepping stone ( the earlier question )
just that at that moment it was what was important  ! 


check your PM inbox 

Motorway


----------



## Chasero (8 March 2012)

Bottom might have been in @ 0.024 

Really nice today


----------



## motorway (8 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> Bottom might have been in @ 0.024
> 
> Really nice today








The columns change direction as Demand and Supply in turn exhaust themselves.

They change direction for NO OTHER reason.
They do not wait , They do not pause.

THEY DO NOT LAG...


And they do not change because some amount of time passed
or amount of volume traded or any other reason. 

*They change when it MATTERS.
*
They change when the Composite Man makes them change.


The Figure Chart
is called the "Manipulation Detector" ( consider why not volume ? ==> if I were to sell 1,000,000, shares to myself that would be manipulation 10,000,000 ,100,000,000 would be massive manipulation ,who cares does not mean a hill of beans. How can you tell if I am selling to myself or really SELLING ? )

A topic of worthy study
and extreme reward ( imo  )

The chart is at the current moment the same as earlier posted.


_maybe it never moves again_ 


Changes in activity are an important indication!
This is part of the Time Element , Time  is important.

It stopped at that ( what was it ? , was it _The Station_ ? ) BOX
as I said for a significant period of time.

It sat there and filled with Volume and Time ( much more than any surrounding )
( is it the bottom of that very long hill ? The Billy cart did stop there , that we know)

It now as become active again. But moving UP

Forming an interesting pattern ( patterns that people use are well down the list of what matters . Pattern as shape is more important)

Some of the more important things that matter are:
(1) The  Price movement ”” number of points advance or decline. ( this relates to the whole wave as well as individual columns 
(2)The  Time elapsed in each movement ”” up or down. ( work takes time -->in this sense time--Ripens and puts to the test )
(3) Comparative lifting power or pressure on each up and down swing ( this relates to how much new ground gained-->  very revealing)
(4) Pattern / Shape ( many ways to get from A to B- power = work done / time taken  
(5)  etc eg half way points etc 


looking at the action
There is new demand but trying hard not to buy at .028

lets see that happens if we see .028 box start to fill !
*
No reason not to be buying NOW with a stop
for an aggressive entry !
*

*The fluctuations are the market reality
*You only need an "Engine" to turn them into $$$

Motorway


----------



## Chasero (9 March 2012)

Looks like bottom was in.

GCN is running today. 0.03

Wonder how it'll close.


----------



## motorway (11 March 2012)

sammy84 said:


> You're a perma bull in your analysis. What would it take for you to exit?




Also sammy.. Bear in mind. The only point of the forum is discussion. To the extent that there is discussion I will participate. Where there is no discussion there is likely to be gaps in the flow of comment. Or even an end to any discussion.

Here is a comment I made elsewhere where there was a discussion at the time.

The topic was "Way Oversold"  and some being said about Fibs and Indicators  etc
There was no further discussion on this.. Just in the main more talk about about other things==> announcements.



> We have in the main urgent sellers
> continual reaching for the bid and yes there are bids.
> 
> While this is the situation what means "OVERSOLD"
> ...




"The last price is always , just HISTORY"

OK for the benefit of discussion.

High Probability that it has happened !

Is it time to look for multiple buy opportunities ?

I will say YES.

Ok This is "good" maybe only to the next box on my chart !
So no point discussing this after --. As being Bullish or Bearish
Discuss after if you like for education.

It is a comment about NOW ( and that is what always matters the NOWs )

Remember to click and expand the chart !






Uptrend is Not confirmed just YET ! imo 
A Turning Point  was identified !
But is it MAJOR, INTERMEDIATE or MINOR ? ( I have a view based on the chart )

Mistagear  => The line at .026 did prove crucial.. It is a P&F chart ! Given one consideration,  You can not assume any box or series of Boxes are unimportant or has any less meaning until it proves to be so.

IE To not miss any important Box on this chart you would have to use a BAR chart with a time frame less than 10 seconds.. You could safely ignore maybe 99.9% of all the bars on such a chart. But you ahead of time do not know what 10 sec bar is going to be important ( maybe you will need bars less than 1 sec ).

Whatever 1 sec bar does become important WILL post a BOX on My chart. All those not important will Not post a box My chart.


Note there is well over 300 million shares traded now  since the last swing High !


Obviously Void if falls back to or esp below .025


Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (11 March 2012)

Motorway, 

Struggling with the P&F so far, enjoying the alternate to my own method.

Does the current base formed on your chart create a potential target ?
Theoretically, of course


----------



## motorway (11 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> Motorway,
> 
> Struggling with the P&F so far, enjoying the alternate to my own method.
> 
> ...




Every box is where the was a difference of  opinion !

Every congestion zone is where there was an aggregation of differences of opinion.

A trend lets say up... is where these zones of "differences of opinion" form at sequentially Higher prices

++> 


> Technical Targets to gauge..
> 
> .045
> then .051
> ...






> "The most valuable feature of Figure Charts, however, is their horizontal formations !"




Because with one exception ( maybe )  No other chart can reveal the Horizontal Formations as explicitly .. It is where the differences of opinion are that matter..

The one exception calls these formations ... Zones of  Value.

Motorway


----------



## motorway (13 March 2012)

As to the Chart ===> ABSORPTION ( consider why )
A  ( *another* ) PRIMARY BUY POINT !

The only variable is tIME.

consider carefully 

Unless You Understand Time
You Understand NOTHING


I have Highlighted tIME with Black Boxes
They are the daily closes!

But they are NOT *T*ime



Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (13 March 2012)

motorway said:


> You Understand NOTHING
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Well I know nothing in that case.


----------



## motorway (13 March 2012)

Mistagear said:


> Well I know nothing in that case.




P&F takes you out of time frames into the intrinsic reality of supply and demand.

( It is truly imo a very worthwhile study with many nuances. It seems foreign to many it would seem... It is NOT a bar chart with static time frames ==>







> " Most technical traders organize market data in terms of time and price. Peter contends that this is not the way the market represents itself, and that traders would be better served to view market data as the market actually presents it.
> 
> Peter examines market segments, or discrete market movements, in terms of value and development rather than price and time. To really understand the market, traders must allow the market to communicate freely. Any externally imposed structure will distort the results. Peter views chronological time as just such an external structure. Market movements do not conveniently begin and end at pre-calculated times in order to coincide with a particular chart or trading style. Market movements begin when some inefficiency between buyers and sellers exists. The movement ends when the market has attained its objective." etc ........




 I post to challenge myself as well as anyone who is interested.

The only real variable on that chart _it would seem_ is tIME ( in that it significantly changes ( tIME = chronological time the time of time frames ) The time frame is expanding and contracting. It is a Primary factor to consider.

In Intrinsic time , market time  we just see the structure and dynamic of SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Two views ==> Chronological Time Vs market time. This is what I mean by understanding.

A well know P&F Authority stated that P&F charts are charted under the aspect of eternity ( any P&F practioneers will be able to  tell me who said that ).

In what he said he was imo only halfway correct..

In the  Blog post associated with this chart  ... I quote a passage from  Peter J Steidlmayer on this topic. I find him a very good P&F ( Intrinsic time ) Practioneer.


*I have read your posts here and elsewhere
I would never have said You Know Nothing
Quite the Contrary.*

Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (13 March 2012)

motorway said:


> P&F takes you out of time frames into the intrinsic reality of supply and demand.
> 
> ( It is truly imo a very worthwhile study with many nuances. It seems foreign to many it would seem... It is NOT a bar chart with static time frames ==>
> 
> ...




I do not as yet have an understanding of your "time" concept.

For me, On a Bar Chart I have an awareness of time spent at price, but that has an "amount of volume" component as a greater priority.
My favourite chart type for clear understanding of supply/demand is a Volume Chart (not a bar/time chart with volume indicator ), and that has no time component at all.
Perhaps this is the cause of my mental block with the Time Dimension.
I will continue to read, Thanks.


----------



## Chasero (15 March 2012)

IPTV/WiFi partnership in Mongolia,FirstMongolian entitlement

Anyone understand this mongolian mine business?


----------



## motorway (15 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> IPTV/WiFi partnership in Mongolia,FirstMongolian entitlement
> 
> Anyone understand this mongolian mine business?
> 
> ...




No ! But free shares sounds OK !

But in any case  the Chart says good  absorption at  .033 through the day. After by any measure==>



> Thrusts,  halfway points . trend lines etc..



The trend had turned up ( at least till it turns down  ).
Was close to 300 mil shares in that down leg.
Now / there is nearly 200 million shares  in *A* Base. ( rough ball park figures-> You get the Picture ! ).

What will sustain any up move is more selling ( SERIOUSLY ! )

Only way to lock in a STRONG TECHNICAL POSITION

How else to get 300 million shares in the base ?



Will try to get around to updating the charts. ( serious personal matters at the moment )

Consider the ( esp a P&F)  chart  in  the sense as a  chart of  the flow of willing supply !

Absorption -->  Reveals  a certain growing unwillingness !

Consider in this sense reading your charts from the aspect of SUPPLY.

Like turning charts upside down . Give you a different perspective



Motorway


----------



## skc (15 March 2012)

Chasero said:


> IPTV/WiFi partnership in Mongolia,FirstMongolian entitlement
> 
> Anyone understand this mongolian mine business?




Let's see.

Unknown Mongolian investment company wants to list on ASX. GCN holders are asked to help achieve spread requirement for ASX listing - so free shares for holders above a certain threshold. The record date is undisclosed so you can't sell. But the mine might worth Billions so you won't want to miss out. 

Hmmm... sounds familiar? 

Wasn't that the same deal with P1? How's that listing going? In fact, this is the 4th such soon-to-list deals GCN has tried since 2005 - none of the first 3 amounted to anything. I am sure the supporters will say "Stop looking at the past and look to the future!". I am sure P1 will be in the past soon as well - the next deal is ever so much more enticing.

Absolutely unbelievable that they try to pull this kind of trick again (and so soon). Is GCN the most pathetic company on the ASX? This is a listed company using tactics that are imo comparable to those Nigerian scams. 

And Wifi partnership in Mongolia... Please!. Mongolia has a population of 2.8m and a per capita GDP of $3000. That's the equivalent of ~120k Australians. You think they'd target Wagga Wagga first. At least people speak English there.

And the saddest part is that there are probably plenty of fools out there buying this . I think there are also many traders out there who don't believe in this sort of $hit - but all it takes for them to buy is the belief that there are greater fools out there to take the stock off them. 

The stock will probably run, then it will crash. A trading opportunity perhapds, although I've decided not to participate because the whole thing just smell so bad and I don't want to get any stench. But the danger is that, with this kind of pumping, it wouldn't surprise me to see a cap raising soon.


----------



## McLovin (15 March 2012)

This is getting into just being completely stupid. Anyone who touches this thing should go and put their money in an index fund, you're not cut out for the market.

Honestly, I think they have a big map in the GCN head office and they just throw a dart at it and then presto, a day later we have an announcement about how they are expanding into it.


----------



## Chasero (16 March 2012)

Gotta say this is the most ramped up AND bagged out stock on other forums.

I have to hand it to GCN for being the company to make the most announcements (just look at them over the years, or should i say decade) yet none of these come into fruition?? i.e. generating constant revenue.

I wonder who they are going to get to value the manganese mine at..


----------



## McLovin (16 March 2012)

Chasero said:
			
		

> Gotta say this is the most ramped up AND bagged out stock on other forums.




The people ramping it have no idea what they are doing. I've read some of the comments on other forums and it's like Innocent First Timers meets the dotcom bomb.

Think rationally about it and there is no other conclusion you can make.

1) The company has _never_ made a profit, _ever_.

2) The company has virtually no revenue.

3) The company has a history of strange valuations. In 2010 they were tossing out numbers as high $800m for their IPTV platform. Valuing each subscriber at $813 based on the bizarre formula of using FTA TV networks market cap and dividing by number of viewers.

4) They seem to have a penchant for using scrip to buy unprofitable startups, which again they assign bizarre valuations to.

For this latest announcement, why is there nothing on the internet about First Mongolian? Why have they said nothing beyond "diversified interest in mining, business consultancy and media"? Why don't they give some idea of the brands used by the company or at least a website we can go to?


----------



## Mistagear (16 March 2012)

Ethical traders in here,
 Personally I have always thought of Traders/Investors as being a parasite on society (self included). Unless you can claim to be a seed capital provider, all else does nothing to add to society. 
In fact we prey on the misfortune of others by buying shares from the counter-party when we fully believe that to be the bottom from then on, and sell to some unfortunate persons when we think the price to be the highest. 
Each time we inflict this merciless act upon our fellow Traders, it does nothing to add value anywhere, except in our own bank account... How ethical is that ?
Anyhow, I have had no problem taking profit from GCN, it's purely another chart used to play this game we play.
Have just locked in some "dirty profit" (+40% @3.6c, trail stop the remainder ), better go take a shower to get the smell off myself.

PS. I'm thick skinned as well as unethical


----------



## motorway (17 March 2012)

Some comments on the recent posts.

Secondary markets are essential. They are linked to freedoms.

Markets are Dynamic Self Organizing Systems.



> Dynamic systems need
> stabilizers
> Who is aware that the human
> heart pumps 70 liters of blood
> ...




The problem with markets is they are not liquid enough and are not diverse enough.
We need more traders and more variety of traders Not Less...



> "Your heart pumps six liters of blood a minute, and so if you weigh eighty kilos it would take about fifteen minutes to pump your body's weight. By that analogy, the world foreign-exchange market should be transacting $40 trillion every 10 minutes. Today we do $1 trillion or so in 24 hours. My claim is the global economy is close to a heart attack."




If there is real freedom then markets will always be heterogeneous and this is there resilience , strength and wisdom.

We need more prepared to buy at bottoms and sell at tops . NOT LESS..

Quotes are from modern day P&F... Richard B Olsen.

On the issue of Newbies 
I would suggest one of the most basic Newbie mistakes is to think reading announcements and becoming opinionated  or maybe worse forum posts.
Translates into some sort of Method..

I quoted Richard D Wyckoff in an earlier post . There were plenty of such Newbies way back then too.

I would suggest that if reading announcements or forum posts clouds your judgement and I mean posts on all the External things ( not on Internal Generated Information of ==> price volume and Time ) Then maybe better to cease reading them. At the end of time they should not have not mattered in the least. (when you should click the sell Button).




> It is not necessary for you to consider any of these factors because the
> effect of all of them is boiled down for you on the tape. Thus the tape does for
> you what you are unable to do for yourself: it concentrates all these elements
> (that other people use as a basis for their stock market actions) into the combined
> ...





And he became very strong on this point to this extent
(and He was no slouch on real fundamental understanding either)



> You are thus far better equipped than the man who is supplied with all
> the financial news, statistics, etc. from the whole world.
> 
> I, therefore, claim that:
> ...




I see at the moment no deterioration in the technical position
I see continued positive signs of absorption.

The three Box reversal chart is very useful for a number of reasons. But (imo) should not be the basis of BUY or SELL decisions.

One of it's virtues is the OBJECTIVE and HIGH CLARITY aid in STOP PLACEMENT..

The Tape has a Two Dimensional Reality. Price and Time. But that is not Time Frames.


Motorway


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## motorway (22 March 2012)

I see an emergent uptrend
With very positive action over the last two days

A lot of supply being absorbed
~ .034 would seem to be a key level Just at this moment ( the battle today was waged there )

A move now to .036 would be significant
A move back  to .038 would very much confirm the bullish case.

See only reasons to be long from the charts
But too  early to raise stops
Though OK to do so
As long  as you ready to re enter quickly  ( of course imo )

Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (22 March 2012)

motorway said:


> I see an emergent uptrend
> With very positive action over the last two days
> 
> A lot of supply being absorbed
> ...




Am really at odds with your analysis.
Since November there are currently 2 billion shares worth of recently trapped new owners who are today sitting on losing trades, between break even and 45% loss.
As is often the case, the moment they can escape their loosing position and keep their ego intact, they do so.
There is a suggestion today that despite the 10m worth of demand which appeared at todays open to push price to 3.8c, another 16million traded which forced price back down by about 10%, surely this must be counted as evidence that supply exists in huge numbers and is likely to exhaust this impulsive push by demand.

Motorway, when there is large volumes on the highs and much lower numbers on the lows, do you agree that should be seen as significant resistance zone and not likely to be broken to the upside until a large amount of that volume has been transferred to stronger hands at lower prices in the range ? 
I note 2 billion underwater and only 300m in profit at this point


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## motorway (22 March 2012)

volume can be churned and these days a  lot  is.



eg today saw the action as very short term traders , buying and then selling within the first half of the day.

But who did they sell too ?

There are other indications beside volume !

esp Time
The initial move up from .024 recently was a key indication imo

Also moves with news Vs moves without news
esp moves against the initial response of news 


I will Leave this  open for discussion  for the moment.


Motorway


----------



## Mistagear (22 March 2012)

motorway said:


> volume can be churned and these days a  lot  is.




Churned has nothing to do with it. The sell still leaves a new owner holding a losing trade if price goes lower



motorway said:


> eg today saw the action as very short term traders , buying and then selling within the first half of the day.




Demand controlled the first hour, supply enjoyed the rest of the day and with greater volume which is why price declined again.



motorway said:


> But who did they sell too ?
> 
> There are other indications beside volume !
> 
> ...




If you include the move from 2.4c as a single wave, note how much greater the supply on the second occasion today, compared to 16/3.
Very hard for me to dismiss volume, without volume price does not change, no matter how much time passes.



motorway said:


> Also moves with news Vs moves without news
> esp moves against the initial response of news
> Motorway




With or without news is only one of the reasons why people trade. Price action and volume encompasses all the reasons within the period.

Appreciate if you would address my prior question.
Motorway, when there is large volumes on the highs and much lower numbers on the lows, do you agree that should be seen as significant resistance zone and not likely to be broken to the upside until a large amount of that volume has been transferred to stronger hands at lower prices in the range ? 
Thanks,


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## motorway (22 March 2012)

History is important. We have reference points.

But resistance is about what is happening and how it is happening in the context of scale. Resistance is about the movement and ease of movement NOW.

The action today retraced to a half way point of the last up wave from

2.9 to 3.8

~ 3.3/3.4

Buying came in there was  GOOD DEMAND .

It makes for a series of rising supports
At the right side of reversal

Ideal indications would be a intra day move to .038 then a ease back to .036

A move to .036 and close would be also be a  good indication



It is the lines at .03/ .031  that define an important lower level

Motorway


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## motorway (24 March 2012)

> With or without news is only one of the reasons why people trade. Price action and volume encompasses all the reasons within the period.





"It is well understood in financial economics that shifts in demand can move price without involving transactions. So long as the shift in demand is common knowledge"

"order flow is ( in fact ) correlated with information that is not known by all market participants "

"Order flow, then, is a proximate cause of
Price  changes, with the underlying dispersed information being the primitive cause. "

Ok hence the importance on the move highlighted below

On No News...

==>I have it in an Uptrend !

.034 is atm important area

But a move down to even .031 would still be OK

.03 would have us back in the base ( at the top of that base )

Supply  was seen to be  Overcoming Supply ( The Down trend )
Supply was met by demand ( A base formed , An Equilibrium , Sideways development )
Demand  has been  seen to be overcoming Supply ( The Up trend )

*At .034 , We have an apex forming
*

Ok this chart Shows the action up till the 15 march

I want to draw attention to the move through the Trend Line Between the  Two Black Boxes ( all those Black Boxes are the daily closes )
That move was on NO News and was Faster and Further than any other on that chart

*It was a Sign of Strength
*

The 0 is the line at .03

What I said above should be clear from the chart.

_It's in an UPTREND !_

I have not posted the recent action
-->The Apex forming at .034









Motorway

"There is no failure, only feed back 
Observations should be seen as something that changes opinion"


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## motorway (1 April 2012)

> A move now to .036 would be significant
> A move back to .038 would very much confirm the bullish case.




Ideally would like to see .038 now before any move down (~ .032 )
A move down after .038 would be fine imo ( better to see the trend tested , than untested )

.04 would trigger many Buy signals.. So we see if the composite man is content to let those signals be triggered or not.

I see signs of strength and reasons to be looking to adding to more positions.

lets see 

On stops 







> But too early to raise stops



 ==> .038 would allow the raising of stops imo

At .038 and esp .04 ... many upside objectives begin to be activated..




Motorway


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## motorway (5 April 2012)

> Ideally would like to see .038 now before any move down (~ .032 )
> A move down after .038 would be fine imo ( better to see the trend tested , than untested )





Done !

Now would like to see a move back to .035 ( .036 ideal )

Motorway


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## tugga (11 April 2012)

Firstmongolian.com site up


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## motorway (18 April 2012)

> It is the lines at .03/ .031 that define an important lower level




Building quite an important lateral..

How aggressive should an entry be ?

Now.. Would be very aggressive
Waiting for expansion of activity would be middling aggressive

Waiting for expansion and .032 would be 3/4 aggressive

.035 would be aggressive at one scale higher etc

could also break down towards ~ .026.

Extreme contraction of activity atm
Exhaustion of sellers
but passive support and lack or urgency of buyers.

But atm Support.

Not take much to trigger good upside targets imo



> It is the lines at .03/ .031 that define an important lower level




imo watch for here for any change of behavior

Motorway


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2012)

motorway said:


> Building quite an important lateral..
> 
> How aggressive should an entry be ?
> 
> ...




I've been watching as well. Very low range of bars and bugger all volume. I'd wait for both to change.

gg


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## Mistagear (18 April 2012)

motorway said:


> Building quite an important lateral..
> 
> How aggressive should an entry be ?
> 
> ...




This post has upside bias, assumes price will rise from this price zone.
IMHO, there is little evidence to support that opinion.

Looking at the background, since Nov 11 when demand moved from a previous price zone (top of zone 2.5c) through to the extreme top of the next price zone (7c), supply has steadily retreated price.
Middle of this zone  is between 5.2c and 3.8c where the bulk of traders have transacted holdings during the past 12mths.
You can see how in mid Feb this middle ground was left behind when again supply voted to force price lower, attempting to test the previous zone at 2.5c.
By 7th March, showed there was no desire to take price back into the previous zone (lack of supply beyond 2.5c)
Since then there has been 2 relatively weak advances made by demand (9th and 21st Mar) which were successful and another attempt on 22nd Mar which was subsequently squashed by available supply. 
This leaves the last clear signal of consensus as negative, since that date no evidence is apparent either way to support a bias.
More recently you can see lows getting lower on lack of supply, this shows no demand at present, where any supply entering the market sees price fall. Easiest direction of travel remains down at this stage.
I dont see how a long trade is justified with the background as it has unfolded over the last few months.


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## motorway (18 April 2012)

*could also break down towards ~ .026.*

There is evidence but not enough agree !

.026 is real possibility

The thing about lateral phases is someone will be proved wrong.

we about to find out , maybe

Evidence was in the deceleration and exhaustion ( temporary? ) against *intermediate *scale background.

What is missing are ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTH from this lateral phase

lets see 


*could also break down towards ~ .026.*
This has / had just as much probability.

The buy questions has stated were questions for discussion


A bullish case now (ATM) rests on depth returning and holding at .03

Some sort of spring.

But .026 is real possibility.  ( then new questions )

We just seen how dynamic is analysis

The 1,000,000, + taking out of the bid is new info
 it was a response to that lateral
Now it is a test.

Now we must judge the response

Motorway


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2012)

No worries Motorway, 

I prefer to back the horse coming around the last turn, rather than in the starting gate. Less individual profit I admit.

gg


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## skc (18 April 2012)

Mistagear said:


> This post has upside bias, assumes price will rise from this price zone.
> IMHO, there is little evidence to support that opinion.
> 
> I dont see how a long trade is justified with the background as it has unfolded over the last few months.




There are few posts by Motorway on GCN without upside bias... since circa 2003 



> And As I have said
> It is looking good.
> The Liquidity was an attraction in buying
> If You are buying something no one else wants
> You Can be sure It is a bargain !!






> Micro caps can sell like lottery tickets totally overvalued.
> but that is mainly at Mkt and sector peaks.
> other wise they are often bargains and sell at a discount only to be bought later at a premiums when they look safe bets and are bigger companies.
> 
> look past the present and at where things are unfolding.




Quotes from Motorway taken from the other site dated 29 July 2003. I particularly like the last line... look to the future - don't stop now just because it's been 10 years! 

Motorway, congratulations on almost 10 years of dedicated ramping disguised under whatever form of technical analysis you practice. I think GCN should recognise you and your fellow ramp crew for a long service award - perhaps have the ceremony held in Mongolia, broadcast live over their IPTV channel, and give free P1 shares to all those who attend. On second though, may be only those who purchase minimum 10 drinks can qualify for the free shares. BTW, don't worry about any hangover, there is a bottle of Liver Bioguard in the showbag of free goodies.


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2012)

skc said:


> There are few posts by Motorway on GCN without upside bias... since circa 2003
> 
> 
> 
> ...





This has all the makings of a scandal.

Do tell.

Do reply Motorway.

And I thought it was just a stock.

gg


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## motorway (18 April 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This has all the makings of a scandal.
> 
> Do tell.
> 
> ...




GG I have followed the stock since it listed. Posts 10 years ago were posts 10 years ago. ( that was a good post supported by research from the time on "the lottery ticket premium"

You will find a long period in between when there was no posts the majority of that period. Until very recently

SKC   







> Motorway, congratulations on almost 10 years of dedicated ramping disguised



  Provide proof or a retraction fair enough.

When did my most recent post on GCN occur on that other site ?
When was my previous last post on that Site ?

If it GCN stays listed another 10 years. That would be even a more reasons to keep an eye on it.

I have one nick on all these forums
and so anyone can search.

I also earlier mentioned and pasted a post I made on that forum myself.


A buy at .03 would still not be stopped out (.028 )
the more confirmed buys at .032 and .035 NEVER OCCURRED or were triggered.

Why .026 is a probability
I see just atm .032 as the higher probability 

Because of the intermediate background

There has been a wave Up a correction
and then a failed move into the second wave

There has been a very small three wave move DOWN into the lateral

With today a move below the .03 to .029

With some increase in Volume activity.



Analysis is Dynamic.


Motorway


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## snsdmonkey (18 April 2012)

Lol motorway are you still in GCN? I hope you've taken some off the table previously yeh?...


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## skc (19 April 2012)

motorway said:


> SKC     Provide proof or a retraction fair enough.




I said 







> Motorway, *congratulations *on almost 10 years of *dedicated ramping disguised *under whatever form of technical analysis you practice.



Which part would you like me to retract precisely? 

*Dedicated? *Your HC searchable history had 525 posts total since 2003. 277 are on GCN, 117 on SSI. Plus another 100 posts on Top$ purely on GCN, and another 41 Blog Entries on GCN (out of total of 62 blog entries since Dec 2011). That's a total of 535 from 687, or 78%. You can't deny that's dedication! 

*Ramping? *I can't go over all your 535 posts and work out the exact percent of posts with positive bias/spin. But here's an example from one of your first HC posts dated 23/01/2003 titled "Lots Happening".



> I hope interested investors have managed to have a read of the research report on GCN. It gives a focused view of where GCN is concentrating and points to likely developments. *I am impressed *By two things. First SSI through GCN is trying to build credibility and exposure for the Gotrek technology, the emphasis is an ongoing profitable business. The reports high lightis the move into the mobile space through the Microsoft O2 XDA phone and the GPRS network . With deals with three Asian carriers at advanced stages. This report would be worse than useless if there was not *extreme confidence of these deals being done*. The technology is already operating.
> Given this the net income projections are relevant and *enticing to the point of causing one to look twice to make sure ones eyes are not playing tricks*. The net income ( not revenue ) calculations produce a *net present value of $1.63 *per GCN share.




And later that same day when refuted by others...



> Each to his own. By all means say it how you see it.
> That is all I am doing. Remember the *fullness of time will say who is right or wrong*. You see failure, falling price, lack of liquidity. I see opportunity and something of Value offered at a discount. I also see a company that is flexible resilient and focused. Three very *worth while investment criteria*. The fact that GCN is still around and moving forward speaks volumes. maybe you should take off the dark glasses opportunity is always hard to see . That is what makes it opportunity. Mkts soon make you pay a premium for the supposed obvious.
> The small and unnoticed can be had at great discount.




I suppose we have yet to reach the fullness of time? Enough said.

*Disguised? *You present your charts inevitably with a positive bias, and it was picked out twice here by other chartists. Your discussion of the chart is either in an uptrend, or when it is heading down, it is showing "absorption", "sign of strength", "support below", followed by "imminent breakout". The best one was "the billycart goes the fastest at the bottom". It is always buy or hold, it's never a sell.

*Congratulations? * Surely you don't want me to retract that? No. You deserve it!


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## motorway (19 April 2012)

Those posts had context and were part of discussions. ( sometimes heated ) They had a Particular History also. The number of posts also had context .. HC has very much a conversational feel.. Sometimes a thread can be ongoing and quite long.. Esp when there is argument.

The point is I probably made significant number of posts at various times when I was active in the stock.

Just like I make many posts on themes that I find interesting and important here on ASF.

eg I made a Number of posts on ASF on a number of threads that I initiated that I was interested in and felt important to share.

As I said I have always been Motorway anyone can search for old posts.
If I wanted to ramp I would have different nics on the different forums at the very least.

There was imo good material in all those threads.




> Remember the fullness of time will say who is right or wrong. You see failure, falling price, lack of liquidity. I see opportunity and something of Value offered at a discount. I also see a company that is flexible resilient and focused. Three very worth while investment criteria. The fact that GCN is still around and moving forward speaks volumes. maybe you should take off the dark glasses opportunity is always hard to see . That is what makes it opportunity. Mkts soon make you pay a premium for the supposed obvious.
> The small and unnoticed can be had at great discount.




very pertinent . imo very true.
And there is some research I have posted on this at times

I will add to that old post.. That Timing is important.

of course as time goes past we refine out methods
Today unlike you ,I rarely talk about announcements or offer opinions about them.

Back in 2003 I was more focused on such things.

In the recent post here I said .026 is a real possibly. I have said nothing about absorption or accumulation.

I pointed to a deceleration and exhaustion. BUT also a lack of any urgency of buyers.
And the need to see .032 and .035 in rating  buy points.

That post and all post are for discussion. They are not the last word.

.03 was an aggressive entry.. That word has meaning. 
It means 100% price discovery. HIGH RISK  ( of being wrong But not necessarily of making loss )

Moving back through .032 and .035 is letting others share that Price  Discovery.


Motorway


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## motorway (19 April 2012)

snsdmonkey said:


> Lol motorway are you still in GCN? I hope you've taken some off the table previously yeh?...




sns very early on  I posted a model that allowed for an intial Precursor and catch up ( A deep retracement after the initial wake up )

Since GCN listed I have been active in it on a number of occasions..

Very low priced stocks have different challenges to higher priced stocks ( or maybe is market cap )... There is a lot to be learned from trading and analyzing them.

But on the other hand they have other virtues that make them worthwhile. ( eg extremes of dullness and activity and also the compactness of activity )

Also on occasion the returns

One of the challenges is the lack of depth to the action

A .01 move on BHP is really nothing

A .01 move on GCN is significant for all participants of all time horizons.

IE degrees of trend are more super imposed than otherwise ( they always are But here they have the same vertical dimension )


GG likes to get them around the last turn..

MW is getting on board before the race is run ( watching the barrier trials )

MW is not worried about following trends
But determining turning points and being counter trend at one degree of trend. ( my thinking atm )

Trends will then look after themselves.

Harmony with trend*s* more than following.

My focus is on discussion and learning I am always doing the latter.

Other participants have control of the former .

The compactness of GCN's activity mean there is useful insight in teasing out the relationships of Price Volume and Time rather easily.

BUT..analysis must be ongoing.. opportunity appears when it does.


Motorway


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## motorway (19 April 2012)

Maybe this helps . I am not chasing after trends ! My focus is turning points !

two points

1) I can not predict the future. ( do not want to try )
2) It does not matter how many times I am proved wrong  in MY forecasting.


The Important thing is - The Waves of The Market



> Any one who can spot these points has much to win and little to lose, for he can always play with a stop placed close behind the turning point or "point of resistance". .
> 
> How do we cross a busy Highway ?
> By using a rule like see three cars and count to five and run ( with eyes shut ? ).
> ...





SKC maybe will post some more of my old posts. As much as they are about the Stock. They are ALWAYS  as much about various aspects of trading and Wyckoff or P&F of whatever.


I am happy to post charts and discuss. But I think the thread is better if it remains on topic. What ever your analysis.




Motorway


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## Chasero (25 April 2012)

Motorway, GCN back to 26c. 

Interesting to see where it will head from here?


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## motorway (26 April 2012)

Chasero said:


> Motorway, GCN back to 26c.
> 
> Interesting to see where it will head from here?




Yes , I just lost a long reply pointing out why.

So I just put the chart up and see what discussion flows

The Black Boxes are the close of each day ( a "2" means that a BOX contains TWO days of the signed order flow )

Important level was .03
Important are the small lateral trends in the move down from the high
( and they will become very important )

Now look left to original the Reversal Base. 







> Interesting to see where it will head from here?




Prior action has lots ( significant ) Horizontal Development  all not far from this price level ( VERY IMPORTANT ). But most is now above the current price. ( But even a move back to .028 would now start to change those relationships )

Given the congested nature of the action. ANY increase in the speed of activity will be significant.

The lateral phases all have important implications ( nature of a TWO DIMENSIONAL CHART ).

What price does from here will increase the clarity of the definitions of those implications ( Accumulation or Distribution ). 

Relative congested from the last RED BOX ( important again )







The last BOX is the close of the 24th ..at .026 it also contains the signed order flow from the 23rd.
if the price stays at .026 today that BOX will have a "3" in it.

This is the only phase that has BOXES on top of each other and so congested

Motorway


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## prawn_86 (20 June 2012)

Turned out to be another pump & dump fizzler as many of us said it would be.

Does anyone who actually keeps an eye on this have any news as to what they are promising, but not delivering on, this time?


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## McCoy Pauley (21 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> Turned out to be another pump & dump fizzler as many of us said it would be.
> 
> Does anyone who actually keeps an eye on this have any news as to what they are promising, but not delivering on, this time?




Somewhat surprisingly, David Haselhurst still appears to buy the hype around this company as he wrote glowingly about GCN and its spin-off in one of last week's Eureka Reports.


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## tugga (19 April 2013)

Not a lot happening with GCN and P1... I hear there is news on the horizon... Lets hope this turns the SP around!


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## piggybank (5 December 2013)

On the move...


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## skc (31 August 2016)

prawn_86 said:


> Turned out to be another pump & dump fizzler as many of us said it would be.
> 
> Does anyone who actually keeps an eye on this have any news as to what they are promising, but not delivering on, this time?




4 years on.

GCN delivers the cleanest balance sheet I've even seen for a listed company.




Assets = $88 cash. That's it. Not even computers and office desks? What about the $millions of intangible assets from all these little JV's... here are just some of the ones I can remember:
- liver oil
- free wifi
- Solar Airconditioners
- documentary on multi-cultural festivals
- PriorityOne
- First Mongolia
- Jackson5 and the hotel empire
- Premium Chinese grapes
- and the latest... VR headsets

GoConnect... what an amazing entity.


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## McLovin (31 August 2016)

Where's motorway to talk it up? That's not just any $88!


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