# IPM - Incremental Petroleum



## noirua (19 July 2006)

Information on Incremental Petroleum can be found at the companies website: http://www.incrementalpetroleum.com

Report on the maiden reserves for the Selma Oil Field: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060717/pdf/3xky5wrp7kgnn.pdf


Boardroom Radio Report on Wednesday 19th July 2006 at about 2-30p.m: http://www.brr.com.au/event/pm/1806/12487


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## noirua (19 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Information on Incremental Petroleum can be found at the companies website: http://www.incrementalpetroleum.com
> 
> Report on the maiden reserves for the Selma Oil Field: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060717/pdf/3xky5wrp7kgnn.pdf
> 
> ...




The report was certainly upbeat on the Selmo Oilfield, Turkey and the year end December should see an announcement of a 50% " free cash " capital return and dividend. The company is concentrating on the Selmo Oil Field and any future acquisition would be in the same region.


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## DOC (25 September 2006)

An update on IPM,
Today about 9.5 million shares were traded in this stock, and in the past few months trading averages around the 100,000 mark!! with the largest ever daily volume being 3 million at the ipo.   

Does anyone know what this could mean, as the price did not move today and there were no new announcements?

I dont know how to interpret todays high volume, any ideas would be greatly appreciated.  

cheers
doc


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## noirua (26 September 2006)

DOC said:
			
		

> An update on IPM,
> Today about 9.5 million shares were traded in this stock, and in the past few months trading averages around the 100,000 mark!! with the largest ever daily volume being 3 million at the ipo.
> 
> Does anyone know what this could mean, as the price did not move today and there were no new announcements?
> ...





USR drilling results are awaited - stock has a strong NZ following. Interim results 10 days ago were inconclusive, due to drill pipe failures, and the follow on " Emerging Producers Presentation " failed to give any lift.


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## DOC (26 September 2006)

Hi,
thanks for that.
I have just been told by my advisor that the 9 million shares traded were a transfer of shares between related entities, (an off market transfer) not a real sale of shares.

but keep us updated with any info on this one please!!
I was told earlier this year by ........ ......... that this one is worth 2.50 and a div of 12c will be paid at year end.

i purchased a lot of these in the IPO, and i'm still hanging in there. fingers crossed as this is my biggest share investment.

anyway, thanks for replying to my post.
cheers 

doc


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## noirua (27 September 2006)

DOC said:
			
		

> Hi,
> thanks for that.
> I have just been told by my advisor that the 9 million shares traded were a transfer of shares between related entities, (an off market transfer) not a real sale of shares.
> 
> ...





The following shows the announcement of the start of seismic surveying:  http://www.oilvoice.com/Otto_Energy_Starts_Seismic_Survey_in_Turkey/7404.htm


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## DOC (27 September 2006)

thanks for that news.
some positive reports are what we need.
I'll also post anything that i hear about as well.


cheers
doc


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## Bonk (12 November 2006)

....read research material available , broker reports; asx presentations of late . There is going to be a broker brief very soon and new news for the punters . Share price activity last week or so indicates something is on ....


This is a very sound stock ; paying 8c dividend FY06 and anticipate an 11c dividend FY07 . Current production is approx 530,000 bbloe per annum . Cash flow is good ;  field development expected to take daily production from 1500 to 2600bopd in near future . PER is very low compared to other similar oilers.

dyor


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## noirua (13 November 2006)

Bonk said:
			
		

> ....read research material available , broker reports; asx presentations of late . There is going to be a broker brief very soon and new news for the punters . Share price activity last week or so indicates something is on ....
> 
> 
> This is a very sound stock ; paying 8c dividend FY06 and anticipate an 11c dividend FY07 . Current production is approx 530,000 bbloe per annum . Cash flow is good ;  field development expected to take daily production from 1500 to 2600bopd in near future . PER is very low compared to other similar oilers.
> ...




I hold this stock, bought in late June and they now stand at the same price as then. Euroz are the latest analysts to report and see IPM as a buy at $1.50, they reported on 1st Nov 06. Forecasts out to 2009 are less good than the 2007 outlook. 

What has sent this one sideways, rather than up, has been thoughts on the cost of the 12.5% royalties at the Selmo oilfield and oils weak performance of late. Royalties may reduce to 5% but that is by no means certain. 

Anyway, an analyst thinks they are a buy and certainly more knowledgable than I, and Euroz put a target at $2.25, so let's hope they're right.


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## noirua (29 November 2006)

IPM are attracting a little more interest following the Corporate Presentation at the start of the Month.


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## DOC (21 December 2006)

Hi,
i am just watching this stock hovering around 1.30, which is way off the highs and valuations i have been receiving over the last 6 months. A little dissapionted as i hold this stock and bought in the original IPO for a dollar.

A 9-11 cent dividend will be paid for holdings at 31.12.06, and a major sydney broking firm has released a conservative valuation of $2.25 in late november.(dont know if i'm alowed to mention the firms name? sorry).
so i'm hanging in there!

As the previous posts have said, this company is cashflow positive, paying dividends, no debt, no hedging as yet, middle-east petrol prices good, and sound management team. Its definately looks like good stock , with few negatives. 

My main concern is , when and how long will it take to see its full potential.
and can i wait while other oppertunities go by.

cheers,
Doc


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## noirua (21 December 2006)

DOC said:
			
		

> Hi,
> i am just watching this stock hovering around 1.30, which is way off the highs and valuations i have been receiving over the last 6 months. A little dissapionted as i hold this stock and bought in the original IPO for a dollar.
> 
> A 9-11 cent dividend will be paid for holdings at 31.12.06, and a major sydney broking firm has released a conservative valuation of $2.25 in late november.(dont know if i'm alowed to mention the firms name? sorry).
> ...




The horizontal Drilling at Selmo has yet to provide results that will massively increase the reserves. Also the field needs to have a lot of water pumped at great expense.  There could be a long wait as this drilling seems to be taking quite a long time.


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## DOC (28 December 2006)

Hi,
apparently it looks like another dividend will not be paid until feb/march 2007, and not at 31/12/06 as we previously thought.
A major shareholder has just left this one (MMC sold 5 million) and so far there is no evidence of any institutional buying in at this stage. tightly held stock as can be seen by the volume.

i'm still holding on at the edge of my seat, waiting for some positive sentiment. Although the short term doesnt look so rosy, i'm still hearing that its the cheapest oil stock around based on fundamentals.  

cheers,
doc


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## DOC (22 January 2007)

some latest news we have been waiting for:

22/1/2007
"EARNINGS LIFT FOR IPM FROM NEW PETROL TAX LAWS"
New petroleum laws in Turkey have been passed on 18 January 2007, the new law had been the subject of considerable consultation between industry and govermnent for 5 years, and was submitted to parliament 12 months ago.
effectively reducing the royalty paid by petrol companies from 12.5% to 1.7%  and 5% depending on bopd output. The net effective royalty paid by IPM on Selmo oilfield is thus reduced to about 3.2%.

ASX announcement by Gerard McGann, managing director, on 22/1/2007.

also,

Tricom is expected to increase its current valuation from $2.20, as a result of this earnings lift.


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## noirua (22 January 2007)

DOC said:
			
		

> some latest news we have been waiting for:
> 
> 22/1/2007
> "EARNINGS LIFT FOR IPM FROM NEW PETROL TAX LAWS"
> ...



Hi, We do seem to have a small lift off at $1.32. I will keep holding on to this one and quite content to do so.


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## DOC (22 January 2007)

This is the analysts report from "Fat Profits" dated 17 Jan 2007, that can be accessed via the IPM website: www.incrementalpetroleum.com
(sorry i didnt know how to link this one)  

*Incremental Petroleum Buy IPM around $1.22
Fat Mining 60, 17 Jan, 2007
Bargain priced oil producer Market cap$82 million*
With the shake out in oil markets that has occurred over recent weeks, we thought it appropriate to remind
Members about one of our favourite emerging oil plays, Incremental Petroleum. The company's share price has
been hammered by circumstances entirely out of its control, relating to underlying adverse oil price movements
and bad weather conditions in Turkey that affected production in recent weeks. Nevertheless, the fundamental
story remains outstanding and Members wanting exposure to a dynamic oil company at a bargain price, should
take note.
"With all that Incremental has achieved over the past year since listing, it has
never represented better value than it does now."
Fat Prophets initially recommended buying Incremental at 98 cents in December (Fat Mining 5). Our last review of
this stock was in October (Fat Mining 45).
IPM has experienced a disappointing six months with the shares experiencing considerable volatility. While
definitive signs of a recovery are yet to emerge, recent price action has nonetheless given cause for optimism.
After reaching a 10-month low of 1.15 cents last month, IPM has stabilised. The recent stability in the shares is
encouraging and indicates selling pressure is abating. While further near term weakness remains possible, we
believe IPM is becoming resistant to lower levels.
A break above $1.30 would be the first indication of upward momentum returning. Although the past six months
have been disappointing, we believe that a sustained recovery is probably in time.
Like most oil stocks over recent times, Incremental Petroleum has been battered from pillar to post by
circumstances totally beyond its control. In the first instance, it has suffered as the underlying price of crude oil fell
sharply to a 19-month low on the back of the warmer-than-expected North American winter.
But in the second instance and in a cruel twist of fate, record low temperatures in the region of the company's
Selmo oil field in Turkey have dramatically impacted production by disrupting power supplies. We believe such a
turn of events represents a real buying opportunity for those Members looking to gain exposure to a quality
emerging oil company, or those existing members who might be thinking of adding to their position at bargain
prices.
Members might consider us foolhardy to be analyzing investment opportunities in the oil sector at a time when it is
receiving such universally bad press. True, it is difficult to find favourable coverage of the sector at the moment, as
every story seems filled with doom and gloom for 'black gold.' Markets are apparently overflowing with the stuff,
with OPEC seemingly powerless to do anything about it.
While we accept that conditions in the oil market have conspired to soften the immediate oil price outlook, we
believe that the essential longer-term fundamental picture remains unchanged. Whatever might happen in the
short-term, Chinese consumption is going to continue to grow robustly over the next several decades, as will
demand from that other emerging giant, India. Meanwhile, the US is not going to lose its love affair with the motor
car.
At the same time, contrary to what the short-term supply data may say, oil is steadily getting more difficult and
more expensive to find and produce. Irrespective of the billions of barrels that no doubt remain to be found, these
untapped reserves will be more expensive to produce and more costly to refine. This means that we must become
accustomed to a high oil price environment.
This brings us to Incremental Petroleum. As a reminder to members, its owns 100% of the Selmo onshore oilfield,
situated in eastern Turkey. Selmo ranks as the second-largest oilfield in Turkey in historical production terms.
Mobil discovered the field in 1964 and operated the field until 1996; however, the field was not large enough in
Mobil terms to warrant the appropriate field work-over techniques to improve productivity.
Incremental saw an opportunity at Selmo because of the field's relatively low oil recovery rate of 16%, whereas the
average recovery rate for most oilfields is around 25%. Plainly speaking, if Incremental can enhance recovery
rates at Selmo to that approximating typical field averages, then it could potentially have access to an additional 45
million barrels of recoverable oil.
Incremental is utilizing modern oilfield technology to improve oil production from the field, including techniques
such acid jobs, plug-backs and pump changes.
The company estimates average cash production costs to remain at around US$18 a barrel over the next three
years, inclusive of all royalties. Assuming an Arabian Medium Oil price of US$63 a barrel over the next three
years, this means a robust operating margin of US$45 a barrel.
Using a base-case production scenario of 500,000 barrels of oil for each of calendar 2007 and 2008, we anticipate
generation of Net Profits After Tax (NPAT) of around A$15 million annually, which should enable the payment of
dividends of around 8 cents a share in each year.
Incremental has a policy of returning at least 50% of its free cashflow to shareholders via dividends and/or capital
returns. This puts the company on a solid yield of around 6.5% based on its current share price.
Incremental remains entirely debt free, with cash of $10 million and has no oil hedging in place. We therefore
retain our view that Incremental represents a cheap producing oil exposure for those investors with an appetite for
risk.
The Selmo oilfield last year received its first ever-independent estimate of its reserves. Independent experts, RPS
Energy, estimated 2P (proven and probable) reserves within the field of 12.04 million barrels. Now let us assume a
conservative net present value (NPV) of US$20 a barrel and this is worth $320 million to Incremental - or around
$4.70 a share. The company represents outstanding value at these levels.
Incremental has also enjoyed immediate exploration success with a farm-in joint venture late last year with fellow
Australia-based Turkish oil explorer, Otto Energy. Incremental is contributing $3 million towards expenses to earn
a 15% stake in Otto's Edirne licence in Turkey's Thrace Basin.
The first two wells, Koyustu-1 and Bati Umur-1, were both successful in encountering gas during drilling, with flow
testing of each well now underway to help ascertain likely reserves. The Koyustu-1 well has flowed gas at a rate of
2 million cubic feet a day from just one of the three prospective gas zones, while Bati Umur-1 awaits testing. The
partners are keen to commercialise these gas reserves as quickly as possible.
Despite all of this good news, we acknowledge that the market is applying an enormous discount to the company's
share price due to sovereign risk concerns. This helps to at least partly explains the discrepancy between the
company's share price and underlying value. We are of the view that with ongoing success both on the exploration
and development fronts, this gap will disappear rapidly over time.
Incremental Petroleum will remain Held in the Fat Prophets Mining & Resources portfolio, but for Members
with no current exposure we recommend the stock as a Buy around $1.22.
Fat Prophets Mining & Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 68 102 986 327) is an authorised representative (no. 277996) of Mint Financial Group Pty Ltd.


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## noirua (22 January 2007)

DOC said:
			
		

> some latest news we have been waiting for:
> 
> 22/1/2007
> "EARNINGS LIFT FOR IPM FROM NEW PETROL TAX LAWS"
> ...




Full Link to report:http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070122/pdf/310lhz8rcrwcqh.pdf


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## DOC (23 January 2007)

Thanks Noirua,

Some good news today too, with all wells back in operation after that freak cold snap they had. Back to about 1,500 bopd.

I will keep you informed of anything new, once i have permission to post any more valuations on this one.


cheers
doc


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## noirua (23 January 2007)

DOC said:
			
		

> Thanks Noirua,
> 
> Some good news today too, with all wells back in operation after that freak cold snap they had. Back to about 1,500 bopd.
> 
> ...




Hi DOC, You'r certainly following this one closely. Deserves to be a lot higher. No doubt others will arrive when we have lift off.


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## noirua (25 January 2007)

Further good news about the Selmo Oil Field as production come back to 100%. Net production was 1,478 net barrels in the last 7 days.


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## windwalker (8 February 2007)

Hi Doc, Noirua, Bonk
Have joined you with this one, 
Cheers


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## DOC (12 February 2007)

best of luck windwalker.
looks like some good news is on the horizon with the turkish government dropping its royalty tax rates.
IMO, still the cheapest, debt free,income producing, oil stock around.

cheers
doc


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## noirua (5 March 2007)

I have sold my holding in IPM as I move to 80% cash. I still hold a number of speculative stocks and that is the reason for selling really. Have to reduce somewhere. Everything looks good for the Selma Oil Field, so, good luck to everyone.


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## Dutchy3 (18 March 2007)

Only a daily chart and the weekly is indicating a stage 4 stock however. Perhaps  a quick LONG opportunity .... this is on my watchlist


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## DOC (21 March 2007)

hi, i hope your right dutchy.
toay was great up 6%. more to come?
i bought a little more @ 1.21


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## Dutchy3 (22 March 2007)

Hi DOC ... indeed I've been a buyer .... STOP 1.30 ish


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## Dutchy3 (24 March 2007)

Held up OK at the end of the week ... note that this is a daily chart and given the way this one has moved in the past any run up might be characterised buy days of selling ...


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## Dutchy3 (29 March 2007)

Big Whites breed Big Whites ...

This is only a daily ... so for me quick and dirty yet todays action indicates of hold until the market signals otherwise ...


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## jet328 (12 June 2007)

With value more difficult to find at the moment, I think this is one of the real stand-outs. 

-currently trading on p/e ratio of just 7
-earnings to significantly increase due tax change in Turkey (announcement 22/01/07) without producing an extra barrel
-sizeable potential to increase production from workovers
-lessons learnt and data gained after operating the field this last year
-they've been a bit unlucky with the weather which decreased production (worst weather in 25 years)
-low recovery rate from previous owner Mobil of 16%
-100% owned by Incremental
-AUD$15 cost of production per barrel
-very long production lifetime. P2 reserves = 12M, 25 years+
-good reports from analysts (on IPM's website)
-director buying on market this week

Worth the time to research

Cheers 

Disclosure- I hold


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## DOC (10 July 2007)

hi jett,

i currently still hold this stock, and have received both a 3c dividend and a 5cent return on capital last year. impressive.
I still think its the cheapest oil stock around based on the figures you mentioned which are all correct. (dividends, cashflow positive profit, no hedging, no debt, reduced government taxes, increased workover drilling methods, plenty of reserves, are my main reasons for staying in this one)

New workover drilling results are to be released over the next few months, with great expectations that this time the new techiques will prove favourable, and proitable by way of increased low cost production (BBL/d).

best of luck to all.

cheers
Doc

DYOR always.


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## jet328 (21 July 2007)

IPM's CEO has been buying up recently. 

He bought a substantial amount on market last week.
Always good to see management buying, especially on market


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## lazyfish (4 September 2007)

IPM acquired 45% interest in the Edirne project, through cash payments and exploration. The Joint Venture has already received an Expression of Interest to purchase gas from the gas fields in the Edirne License from Zorlu Petrogas, who has commenced pipeline construction activities. At this stage it is not clear how much reserve there is. However, today’s announcement (4th Sept 2007) stated that IPM has already identified and plans to drill two ~30bcf targets in Dec 2007/Feb 2008 (with potential upside). Given the current gas price of ~$10/mcf, if fully recovered, these 2 targets alone will bring in revenue of 270 million to IPM. Drilling the wells will cost only USD $300,000 each. First gas production is expected end of 2008. IMHO this is a project with huge upside potential and low risks.:car:


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## DOC (9 September 2007)

lazyfish said:


> IPM acquired 45% interest in the Edirne project, through cash payments and exploration. The Joint Venture has already received an Expression of Interest to purchase gas from the gas fields in the Edirne License from Zorlu Petrogas, who has commenced pipeline construction activities. At this stage it is not clear how much reserve there is. However, today’s announcement (4th Sept 2007) stated that IPM has already identified and plans to drill two ~30bcf targets in Dec 2007/Feb 2008 (with potential upside). Given the current gas price of ~$10/mcf, if fully recovered, these 2 targets alone will bring in revenue of 270 million to IPM. Drilling the wells will cost only USD $300,000 each. First gas production is expected end of 2008. IMHO this is a project with huge upside potential and low risks.:car:




some interesting facts regarding the gas projects Lazyfish, thanks for that.
i'm still very bullish on this stock ( and still hold this one), especially in this volatile climate .
if you look at their website incrementalpetroleum.com, you can download the latest report and from analyst ('Tricom Equities' who did the ipo for BNB) .
In the report dated 28.8.07 they have increased their valuation and price target to 2.10. Impressive! BUT PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

best of luck.

DOC


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## Trader Paul (12 November 2007)

Hi folks,

IPM ..... will be alert for some significant and positive news,
around 21-22112007 ..... 

          21-22112007 ..... 3 time cycles come into play here

              07122007 ..... positive spotlight on IPM ... 

              11122007 ..... positive news expected here

         17-18122007 ..... minor cycle

         28-31122007 ..... minor news

Looking ahead, January and February 2008 look mostly positive
for IPM, but it may turn negative again, from early-March 2008.

happy days

   paul



=====


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## DOC (18 December 2007)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> IPM ..... will be alert for some significant and positive news,
> around 21-22112007 .....
> ...




hi Paul,
i wish the current share price reflected your optism. anyway, the whole market is getting slammed at the moment, and this is still a dividend paying, cashflow profitable stock. i'm hoping that the $90+ current oil price will see healthy profits for this CY.

BTW, i'm curious how you get your stock predicitions/guestimates?

cheers,
doc


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## lazyfish (19 December 2007)

I think the recent news of turkey troops crossing into iraq is not helping the sp. I took the chance to top up. : Hopefully peace can return soon.


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## DOC (31 December 2007)

lazyfish said:


> I think the recent news of turkey troops crossing into iraq is not helping the sp. I took the chance to top up. : Hopefully peace can return soon.




yes thanks Lazyfish, some interesting news, however in my opinion after visiting Turkey, its definately changing as it strives to join the EU within the next 5 years. I noticed especially along the mediterannean towns where i stayed that almost all of the properties were being purchased by British citizens looking to cash in on the real estate while its cheap, and also looking for a great holiday home. definately exciting times ahead for turkey.

BTW, i topped up a little myself last week. 

best of luck to all in the new year.
doc


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## Mofra (13 January 2008)

Howdy holders & interested parties.

I have IPM on my watchlist, obviously an oiler with low PEs is going to be worth watching. I've noticed a few ask why IPM is trading at such low PEs, my question if answered will probably go some way to explaining this.

Why did Mobil, one of the larger & presumedly highly expertised companies in the industry, only achieve a 16% recovery rate for Selmo? The "workover" process not being pushed forward due to size would be the major reason?


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## Mofra (13 January 2008)

Just another little point to note, the Selmo oilfield is next to Diyarnakir in Turkey. Just checking the map below:





It appears this is also smack bang in the middle of Northern Kurdistan (according to traditional borders), so it appears the current problems in Northern Iraq & the Turkish actions against the Kurds will impact on the company as the wider market attempts to price for risk.


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## lazyfish (13 January 2008)

Mofra said:


> Howdy holders & interested parties.
> 
> I have IPM on my watchlist, obviously an oiler with low PEs is going to be worth watching. I've noticed a few ask why IPM is trading at such low PEs, my question if answered will probably go some way to explaining this.
> 
> Why did Mobil, one of the larger & presumedly highly expertised companies in the industry, only achieve a 16% recovery rate for Selmo? The "workover" process not being pushed forward due to size would be the major reason?




I think Mobil halted operation in the early 1990s because it got attacked by the Kurds. So about 80 mmbo produced till then out of 500 mmbo oil in place gives around 16%. Fat prophet had stated in its IPM report that average recovery for most fields were around 25%.

Of course there is the risk of this happening again. But from what I read there is now a Turkey Army base in the middle of Selmo. IPM, being one of the few employers in the region, hires mostly Kurds.


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## Mofra (15 January 2008)

lazyfish said:


> I think Mobil halted operation in the early 1990s because it got attacked by the Kurds. So about 80 mmbo produced till then out of 500 mmbo oil in place gives around 16%. Fat prophet had stated in its IPM report that average recovery for most fields were around 25%.



Thanks for that, so if recovery rates for Selmo increase by 9%, we are looking at recovery of 9% of 500 mmboe =  45 mmboe? 



lazyfish said:


> Of course there is the risk of this happening again. But from what I read there is now a Turkey Army base in the middle of Selmo. IPM, being one of the few employers in the region, hires mostly Kurds.



Employment... the only guaranteed way to trully placate the masses


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## DOC (10 April 2008)

some positive news on IPM:
they have just gone into trading halt one hour ago, pending an announcement of capital raising to purchase an oil & gas field in California USA. I was just told its presumed to be worth about 104 million. cant confirm as yet.

this stock's net assets alone are worth much more than its current price, but its been a sucker for market sentiment, like everyone else. 
Also, an interim dividend of 3c is to be paid in may, so lets hope this is all positively interpreted by the market.

BTW, i still hold about 20,000 of this stock.

good luck & cheers,
DOC


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## Mofra (14 April 2008)

Still nothing in the way of announcement, trading halt Friday stated there would be further news WRT cap raising prior to market open today.

Interested to know the details


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## noirua (14 April 2008)

Mofra said:


> Still nothing in the way of announcement, trading halt Friday stated there would be further news WRT cap raising prior to market open today.
> 
> Interested to know the details




As though speaketh out cometh thee announcement, raising $8 million for U.S.A. projects. I sold IPM back last March 2007 and they appear to have dropped back about 35 cents since then. They could become interesting again once the dust settles, or is it, fog clears. 
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080414/pdf/318kd7nxzw4501.pdf


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## Mofra (14 April 2008)

noirua said:


> As though speaketh out cometh thee announcement, raising $8 million for U.S.A. projects. I sold IPM back last March 2007 and they appear to have dropped back about 35 cents since then. They could become interesting again once the dust settles, or is it, fog clears.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080414/pdf/318kd7nxzw4501.pdf




Cheers Noirua, I'm holding a small amount so the placement offer appears to be ideal for someone in my situation to obtain a little more at a market discount and be eligible for the 3c divvie on the allocation as well.

I'm glad they are reducing overall geographical risk as well given the Selmo field is basically smack bang in the middle of the traditional borders of Kurdistan and other sources of revenue are realistically 12-18 months away


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## DOC (14 April 2008)

Mofra said:


> Cheers Noirua, I'm holding a small amount so the placement offer appears to be ideal for someone in my situation to obtain a little more at a market discount and be eligible for the 3c divvie on the allocation as well.
> 
> I'm glad they are reducing overall geographical risk as well given the Selmo field is basically smack bang in the middle of the traditional borders of Kurdistan and other sources of revenue are realistically 12-18 months away




yes thanks noirua, looks like i was way off the mark with the 8 million, sorry!
Anyway some good positive news and definately diversification is the way to go for future growth. i'll be watching this one closely over the next 3-4 months or so.

cheers,
doc


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## Mofra (19 April 2008)

Fortunately IPM dipped below the $1 level of the $3m placement for existing shareholders, preferred to pick them up slightly cheaper & in a different multiple to the 1, 3 or 5k offered.

Nice little ann to finish the week off on, just wondering whether the Edirne gas fields are now a higher priority than developing further efficiencies at Selmo? The blurb at the bottom of their announcements still notes that the Oil is trucked 40km to a refinery from the field gate, surely this in itself (despite the pretty photos of pipes in an announcment a few months back) is a fairly inefficient practice?

Still happy to hold & accumulate earning 6% divs on a growth play


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## jet328 (19 April 2008)

Mofra said:


> The blurb at the bottom of their announcements still notes that the Oil is trucked 40km to a refinery from the field gate, surely this in itself (despite the pretty photos of pipes in an announcment a few months back) is a fairly inefficient practice?



The new piping that you've read about is 'infield' piping ie. takes oil from the individual wells to a central collection point. This was a good move IMO, much less total pipe now & no frozen lines like the previous year.
In terms of the export pipeline, just think how far most oil travels from well to refinery....


			
				Annual Report said:
			
		

> Export Pipeline
> 
> Over a number of years, the owner of the export pipeline from Selmo, the state owned Turkish Petroleum (TPAO), have suggested that their 40 km export line from Selmo to Batman was environmentally unsafe, and wished to de-commission the line. This event occurred in December 2007. Oil is now trucked in TPAO trucks, with total crude shipping costs reducing slightly. The point of sale of Selmo crude and the purchasing contracts remain the same.






The fundamentals have gone one way & the share price the complete opposite.
Over the last 6 months
-very significant oil price increases
-USR drilling success which will add to production over the next month or two
-excellent results @ Edirne with more than double the expected net pay. High gas prices, close to market, shallow drills, low capex
-geographical derisking with acquisitions in the States with a good balance of low/higher risk plays
-dividend issued
-trading on a PE of just 6 (based on a historical PE from last year when oil prices averaged $66/b)


Cheers


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## 77TRADER77 (28 April 2008)

*INCREMENTAL PETROLEUM OFFER*

Hey Guys can anyone offer some opinion.
Tonite (as a IPM shareholder) I rrecd offer from IPM to purchase shares in ASX at $1-00 which is about current ASX price.
I know theyve struck paydirt on several wells and I gather they need funds to develop and looking for funds from shareholders than the expensive credit squeezed market. Wesfarmers paid 11% before putting its offer to shareholders...If I take up the offer do you think Im "on the money"??


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## Mofra (11 May 2008)

Placement date now over, would expect the millstone to be lifted from the short-term shareprice. Gas drilling near Istanbul seems to be running successfully.

Personally I topped up a little on market as there have been a few dips below $1 in the past fortnight.

BTW did anyone else receive a call from the company? I guess having relatively few shares on issue does allow staff to phone shareholders individually, but I still found it a nice touch


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## Ashsaege (12 May 2008)

Mofra said:


> Placement date now over, would expect the millstone to be lifted from the short-term shareprice. Gas drilling near Istanbul seems to be running successfully.
> 
> Personally I topped up a little on market as there have been a few dips below $1 in the past fortnight.
> 
> BTW did anyone else receive a call from the company? I guess having relatively few shares on issue does allow staff to phone shareholders individually, but I still found it a nice touch




I also received a phone call. but I didn't top up my holdings. Yeh hopefully the shareprice will start to lift now


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## DOC (19 May 2008)

i also recveived a phone call, but found it a little annoying though.

topped up at 99c but i didnt take up the offer. maybe i should have as we are starting to see some positive sentiment around this one.

cheers,
doc


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## Mofra (25 May 2008)

The good news keeps coming for this one, up almost 10% from purchase plan price & 8 new exploration licences granted in central Turkey.

No price was mentioned in the announcement - does anyone know if this is a purchase arrangement as per California or merely a decision by the Turkish government to stimulate the local economy?


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## eddyeagle (4 June 2008)

Here is an analyst report on IPM - worth a read:

http://www.incrementalpetroleum.com/reports/IPM_15Apr08.pdf


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## jet328 (5 June 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Here is an analyst report on IPM - worth a read:




Imagine if they used a realistic oil price 

They're forecasting $90/bbl for 2008. We are almost half way through the year, so to achieve that oil will have to pullback to $70ish dollars

$62US a barrel in 2010   

They can't be serious


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## pacestick (25 August 2008)

IPM now purchasing on market 1 million shares that amounts to 1.2% of issued capital hopefully that will push share above $1.00 and keep it there


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## pacestick (27 August 2008)

pacestick said:


> IPM now purchasing on market 1 million shares that amounts to 1.2% of issued capital hopefully that will push share above $1.00 and keep it there



new dividend 0.03cents per share This should help as well. This appears to be a well managed company with godd prospects in USA and TURKEY


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## Mofra (8 September 2008)

COE offer for IPM, 3.1 shares per IPM share or 1.9 COE shares + 50c each.

Can't say I'm wrapt in the takeover to be honest, seems opportunistic; COE's schedule of production appears to be declining at a steady rate, with a fair portion of the price appearing to be based on the speculative nature of their exploration. 

IPM have new exploration, a P/E based far below market ave, paying > 6% div yield. Will be interesting to guage the IPM board's reaction to the offer.


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## lazyfish (8 September 2008)

Mofra said:


> COE offer for IPM, 3.1 shares per IPM share or 1.9 COE shares + 50c each.
> 
> Can't say I'm wrapt in the takeover to be honest, seems opportunistic; COE's schedule of production appears to be declining at a steady rate, with a fair portion of the price appearing to be based on the speculative nature of their exploration.
> 
> IPM have new exploration, a P/E based far below market ave, paying > 6% div yield. Will be interesting to guage the IPM board's reaction to the offer.




I am happy to hold for the moment just for the divvy. They managed to get this in before the buyback. I would have to say, good try COE! :


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## Mofra (8 September 2008)

lazyfish said:


> I am happy to hold for the moment just for the divvy. *They managed to get this in before the buyback.* I would have to say, good try COE! :



COE aren't paying a dividend due to the speculative nature of their exploration requiring cash to fund (and possibly develop), and IPM have 1.2% of listed capital to be bought back in the next 12 months. Undervalued IPM by a reasonable margin IMO


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## jet328 (8 September 2008)

Completely agree guys
Scrip for scrip in COE is just not attractive
IPM has increasing earnings (I'm forecasting about 21c CY EPS just from Selmo), dividends & significant near term production growth which on a quick glance COE lacks
And to get 90% of the shares would require management support which COE has already tried...

Amazing how uninterested the market is! Normally you'd get some volume after a takeover announcement, but there is nothing today. Market must think there is about as much chance of this bid succeeding as me


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## pacestick (8 September 2008)

Find it hard to take this offer serious If it wasnt for the stated support of a institution I would be rolling around the floor with laughter. Would like to know the instos name so I can avoid doing business with them as they are obviously incompetent or desperate


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## jet328 (8 September 2008)

pacestick said:


> Would like to know the instos name so I can avoid doing business with them as they are obviously incompetent or desperate




Just speculating here, but I'd guess that the insto probably owns shares in both companies. If you own both companies it makes sense for synergies, costs, management, larger market cap etc.


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## Mofra (8 September 2008)

jet328 said:


> Just speculating here, but I'd guess that the insto probably owns shares in both companies. If you own both companies it makes sense for synergies, costs, management, larger market cap etc.



In theory, however you would have to expect that with interests so diversified & widespread that synergies would be very little. COE gain a cash-cow, a near production asset near Istanbul & a proven resource in California. 
IPM holders get shares in a company that is trading higher than market ave P/Es on the speculative nature of projects that will require capital to bring to full production, lose their dividends & the short term upside from the new gas project.

Here's to hoping the board (or at least, > 10% of IPM shareholders) see the value I do, and not let COE avail themselves of an opporunistic bid. Who the hell do they think they are, Xstrata?


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## eddyeagle (9 September 2008)

Good to see a 20% jump on the Takeover offer - only problem is i am still 15% below my purchase price


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## Mofra (11 September 2008)

From teh announcement today, advising holders to take no action:



> The directors of Incremental Petroleum advise shareholders to TAKE NO ACTION to this highly conditional, unsolicited and opportunistic offer.




Sounds like the board have the same reservations regarding the take-over as myself (and I presume most holders). If COE want to wait for Erdine to start producing then re-value the company on a market-average PE basis taking into account the dividend as well & further upside from the Ankora & Californian prospect areas, and then offer fair value for IPM, I'll be all ears


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## pacestick (8 October 2008)

In trading halt target statement rubbishes coe  values ipm at more than it was trading at before slump let alone  what its trading at now  wish i could get someone to pay the sort of prices that independent experts  value shares at


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## DOC (11 October 2008)

hi moiru & ors, been away for a while, but funny enough still holding much the same parcel of IPM since the IPO, plus a little more.

i agree the takeover offer is rubbish from every angle and does not come close to a decent offer.
pity our shares arent currently sitting anywhere near the valuation provided in the target statment. Wow!

still a great stock to hold, and about as recession proof as you get these days with mining stocks!


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## pacestick (11 October 2008)

wish I could be sure more ipm holders wont give in to pressures in mkt at moment and sell coe at 20% didnt think they would get that much


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## DOC (11 October 2008)

they only got 14% from the panic sellers, the other 5 % they already owned as shareholders themselves.
even in this climate, you really should think twice before accepting the first offer, let alone any offer that cheap!


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## Mofra (11 October 2008)

DOC said:


> they only got 14% from the panic sellers, the other 5 % they already owned as shareholders themselves.
> even in this climate, you really should think twice before accepting the first offer, let alone any offer that cheap!



In any language the takeover offer was ridiculously low, even without COE stating they aren't looking to pay a dividend in the near future


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## Rob_ee (17 October 2008)

Mofra said:


> In any language the takeover offer was ridiculously low, even without COE stating they aren't looking to pay a dividend in the near future




Ridicilously low it may be but the problem is that this $4+ analyst valued stock is now selling for .785 cents.

There is so little buying volume that it would not take much to drive it down to between 60-70 cents. All we need is for the yanks to do a few more 800 point intraday swings in this panic market environment.

Laughable I know but I never expected to see this type of price available.

So i bought in @ 86 cents congratulating myself on my trading prowess.
If say it got to 65 cents the COE offer of 50c cash + 1.9 shares I would take like a shot.
I am assuming that cOE's management will try to get the price a little higher.
Lets face it, COE is already trading below break up value.
With $70 mil cash in the bank divided by 250 mil shares the cash value alone is worth 28 cents which is more than the current price.

There may be much more institutional interest at sub 70 cent prices.
Lets face it the institutions can not ofload on market since a single 100k sell order would wipe out all buyers.

All hypothetical of course, COE are outrageously opportunistic BUT they have all that cash which in this market environment is king.

Seeing that the price has dropped substantionally since the latest posts how do you people feel about it know.

For the record I hold both, IPM for the dividend, outstanding diversified prospects and astute management.
COE for the cash, selling $1mil of oil per week and possibe company making prospects overseas.

Either way is ok by me

Rob


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## pacestick (24 October 2008)

COE offer went  unconditional today any  comment what does this mean to their overall chances of getting the company, Is the share price likely to rise more  or not


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## exgeo (25 October 2008)

I was a bit mystified as to the cause of Friday's sharp price rise. I think management alone have a large enough stake to ensure that Cooper can't get full control (above 90% to trigger compulsory acquistion) and it also seems that most of the shares COE have acquired have come from institutions, who were probably having to get cash wherever they could to meet redemptions, not from small investors. So it seems to me that it might actually be negative in the long term because COE will have a large, but not controlling block of shares that will overhang the market in the future; you never know when COE might decide to sell.


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## pacestick (25 October 2008)

No chance of  a white knight play  in action with senior execs using contacts in wpl and others. This  may be one explanation for fridays jump in price


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## pacestick (27 October 2008)

well half right it was awhite knight but not wpl could see a further offer yet hopefully $1.05 is just below my buy in price


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## jackson8 (27 October 2008)

pacestick said:


> well half right it was awhite knight but not wpl could see a further offer yet hopefully $1.05 is just below my buy in price




well it is pretty well pre trading price of  three years ago  so unless you had bought into that long ago or on the couple of occasions over the past  year when it has traded below 1.05 it is not such a great return on your investment

if you ask me an opportunistic attempt to purchase the company at a time when people would beleive that their is no more upside to any company

at least by accepting coe you have the possiblity of future growth by holding their shares and any future growth that ipm may have acheived should be reflected in coe share price


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## pacestick (27 October 2008)

I find  the whole thing frustrating as when i bought into  ipm in mid 08 I had been through a check list of looking at other oil exploration   and development companies  looking for those that suited my  requirements  coe was so different from them those  requirements that i eliminated it early. That is not to say it may  not be a good company just that their strategy involves a larger risk than ipm  , which of course has the possibility of a higher return or a higher loss and it did not pay  a dividend . While both of them did have the possibility of further growth


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## Mofra (28 October 2008)

jackson8 said:


> at least by accepting coe you have the possiblity of future growth by holding their shares and any future growth that ipm may have acheived should be reflected in coe share price



If you really wanted further upside in COE, you'd be better off taking the $1.05 cash offer and buying Cooper shares on market, and pocketing some change. Either way, I'm sure we are going to see a host of opportunistic offers on market as most mining stocks are trading at near their cash-backing per share value, and oilers are written down to current production value only, assuming credit for development is going to be either more difficult to obtain or more costly than previous estimates.


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## pacestick (30 October 2008)

It will be interesting to see who the third party the board is in discussions with is  hopefully we will get a notification by monday


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## pacestick (30 October 2008)

Sorry should have put this in my previous post
Incremental hints at third suitor

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October 29, 2008 - 6:45PM
Advertisement

Takeover target Incremental Petroleum Ltd says it is possible a third suitor may be planning a bid for the junior oil producer.

Incremental also said it had asked its independent experts KPMG to broaden its review of Cooper Energy Ltd's $80 million bid to include a second, $83.7 million offer from Canadian firm TransAtlantic Petroleum Corporation, which was launched on Monday.

"The board will continue to look at all opportunities to provide maximum value to shareholders and believes it is possible that other parties with an interest in Incremental and its assets may come forward," Incremental chairman Chris Cronin said.

Incremental continues to advise shareholders to reject Cooper's final and unconditional bid, which it says is "neither fair nor reasonable".

Oil and gas minnow Cooper is offering 3.1 of its shares for each Incremental share or 50 cents cash plus 1.9 of its shares for each share in the target.

The offer values Incremental at between $65.5 million and $80 million based on Cooper's share price of 26.5 cents.

TransAtlantic's cash offer is $1.05 for each Incremental share and is conditional on a minimum acceptance level of 75 per cent.

Incremental has advised its shareholders to take no action in relation to this bid.

Shares in Incremental inched one cent higher to 98.5 cents.


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## pacestick (1 November 2008)

May you live in interesting times it appears that transatlantic is quite determined to get its 755 and is buying aggresivley with a very positive effect on the sp hope it keeps it up after coe offer is finished as  coe can not make a further offer under the truth in takeover legislation


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## Mofra (4 November 2008)

The plot thickens today, enjoyable viewing for those economically minded.
COE runs to ASIC like a whining little kid who didn't get his lollypop, to extend the takeover offer beyond 7/11.
TransAtlantic Petroleum (as you'd expect) will be appealling against a move. 

Fun times


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## pacestick (5 November 2008)

Mofra said:


> The plot thickens today, enjoyable viewing for those economically minded.
> COE runs to ASIC like a whining little kid who didn't get his lollypop, to extend the takeover offer beyond 7/11.
> TransAtlantic Petroleum (as you'd expect) will be appealling against a move.
> 
> Fun times



If coe get the extension they may very well discover for want of a better word grounds  to apply to takeover panel for an alteration in their offer, if so I would expect  TA to trump it just wishing  i guess


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## pacestick (6 November 2008)

coe havent got the extension so it looks like  their bid is over  whether the share will be held up by trans atlantic buying or start to fall  will be interesting


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## Mofra (6 November 2008)

pacestick said:


> coe havent got the extension so it looks like  their bid is over  whether the share will be held up by trans atlantic buying or start to fall  will be interesting



Yup - just as interesting will be to see how COE decide to use their holding. Given the bid was hostile, it wouldn't appear logical to sign over their ~24% stake to the rival bidder, and the transatlantic bid will be difficult to get over the line without some support from Coopers holding if they don't want to try and waive the 75% acceptance ruling.


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## pacestick (10 November 2008)

coe have finished with 27%. Inteersting to see if  ta keep buying up to the same level or perhaps a level at which ta plus board equals coe


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## pacestick (10 November 2008)

Just a thought will MD  of coe keep his job after this debacle. yjays all I wanted to say this time  but have to get up to minimum letter standard


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## laurie (10 November 2008)

pacestick said:


> Just a thought will MD  of coe keep his job after this debacle. yjays all I wanted to say this time  but have to get up to minimum letter standard




lol don't think so 27% is a good foot in especially if they get board members on the IPM board the point is one has to consider if COE holding is going to cooperate with IPM or be a hinderance to IPM either way I hope they get on with the job of finding oil & gas 

cheers laurie


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## pacestick (11 November 2008)

looks like tpa still accumulating but  without coe  buying is  getting price  to fall.I wouldnt ecpect them to stop before 20% i think  they have to  make an offer formally for anything after that amazed at people letting  them get price lower . They have said they are prepared to pay $1.05 but some are prepared to sell it for less


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## pacestick (21 November 2008)

tpa seem to have stopped accumulating  we  might repeat might see a formal offer from them soon not that i think that will be the last of it


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## pacestick (1 December 2008)

coe not happy with  tpa not making an offer is threatning to take the matter to the regulatory authorities


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## pacestick (2 December 2008)

TPA offer now in I dont know if it will make a lot of difference. I dont intend to sell at this price They have buckleys of getting 75% and without buying out COE  and they will probably want a lot more than this . If so raises questions about how reasonable the bid was originally from COE


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## Kuri (2 December 2008)

How many firms recently have been offered a take over bid, stated that they are better off alone, the bid ultimatley fails and the share price never reaches the high of the take over offer again - Qantas, Aciano, Rio and of course incremental. The boards trying to save their own jobs in my opinion.


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## pacestick (12 December 2008)

looks like the large amounts being bought  erratically are tpa getting their percentage up  for as little as possible. I dont know why anyone would sell for less than $1.05  as they have said they are willing to pay that much


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## pacestick (15 December 2008)

formal offer from tpa  just out the whole thing is conditional on the  price of oil not going below $50.00 which it already has and  tpa obtaining 75% of ipm which would mean coe selling to them. I am an amateur at this but it looks like a claytons offer to me . The takeover offer you make when you are not making a takeover offer but just satisfying the regulators perhaps? any comments would be welcome I Live in fear of having missed something


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## pacestick (5 February 2009)

revised offer from TA now unconditional and increased to $1.07 suspect that might do it although it is still a fraction of its worth but in this  market


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## DOC (5 February 2009)

hi,
yes its been quite tempting to pick up some small parcels in the 86-90c mark, and on the other side of the coin also tempting to just accept the 1.05 offer and be done with all this reporting and valuations back and forth! (so much paper, so much time wasted reading!)
anyway having said that, the fact that transatlantic increased their offer ( even if its 2c) and that they have gone "UNCONDITIONAL", is  great news.

Both  trans and COE have put a lot of REAL effort and funding in order to grab this one, even if its just a piece of the IPM pie. 
Watch this space!

its good to see this stock back above 1.00 again.

cheers,
Doc


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## eddyeagle (18 February 2009)

Looks like it's game-over for IPM. 

Transatlantic now own 63%. 
Directors selling big parcels. 
Fat prophets have said accept the offer!

I guess I'll just have to take the 25% loss I am sitting on. 
Lucky I only had a small holding...


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## DOC (19 February 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> Looks like it's game-over for IPM.
> 
> Transatlantic now own 63%.
> Directors selling big parcels.
> ...




agreed. and accepted. interested to see what the future holds for this one.
i've enjoyed my time in vegas. thanks.


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