# Tipping Competition for Full CY 2017



## Joe Blow (13 December 2016)

OK folks, here we go. I have taken into account everyone's feedback when deciding on the final rules. I hope that you will all give the competition a go even if you don't agree with all of them.

The final rules for the 2017 full year stock tipping competition are as follows:

Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
No stocks that are trading at less than $0.01 on the day of entry may be entered.
A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
The competition will run from Monday, 2 January 2017 to Friday, 29 December 2017.
Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Friday, 30 December 2016.
Entries close at midnight on Saturday, 31 December 2016.
Each entrant is allowed to change two stocks between 1 April 2017 and 30 September 2017. To effect a change, the entrant must post the details of the change in the competition thread. The exit price of the exited stock and the entry price of the new stock will be calculated at the close of the final trading day of the month the change takes place. 
If a stock is taken over it can be replaced. The exit price shall be taken to be the takeover price. The new stock must be nominated before the date the taken over stock ceases trading and the entry price of the new stock shall be taken to be the closing price on the day the taken over stock ceases trading.
The cash prizes will be the same as this year:

1st Place: $200
2nd Place: $100
3rd Place: $50

Entries are now open. Please enter at your convenience by posting your entries in this thread.


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## ROE (13 December 2016)

ITD
TOX
MYX
AHZ
RFG


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## pixel (13 December 2016)

AKP
BAL
DRM
IOT
TWE


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## Klogg (13 December 2016)

VOC
SDI
TCN
VTG
AIK


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## nioka (13 December 2016)

GPP, SYA, EDE, TAS, SO4  Thanks


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## PZ99 (14 December 2016)

LPE
CXO
LPD
RMX
KSN

Cheers


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## tech/a (14 December 2016)

NOR
NAE
GMC
PDN
AGO


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## Muschu (14 December 2016)

GXY
HZR
AGO
S32
ADO


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## Parse (15 December 2016)

DCC
KNL
SYT
THD
TNG


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## Craton (15 December 2016)

Cheers Joe, thanks for setting this in motion.

CZZ
EVN
MPL
RFN
WLD


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## drillinto (17 December 2016)

AAC
MTA
NST
OZL
SWK


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## pixel (21 December 2016)

pixel said:


> AKP
> BAL
> DRM
> IOT
> TWE




Seeing that BAL will remain suspended until at least mid-January, that pick may not be a qualified entry.
If that's the case, may I replace it by CZZ?
Thanks, Joe.


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## kenny (21 December 2016)

Thanks Joe for organising this.

RAP
SYT
NOR
BRN
CR8

Cheers,

Kenny


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## peter2 (21 December 2016)

MYX - fallen angel, but there's no buy signal yet.
RSG - gold price to bounce next year and also a market hedge
GXY - early supplier of lithium
VCX - REIT, conservative selection
CSL - healthcare

I'm anticipating another up and down year.


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## Younga (25 December 2016)

CSR - boom in the building sector
FMG - expect iron ore prices to rise
BSL - expect strong demand for steel
XPE - new IOT company
OZL - expect strong demand for copper and good drilling results


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## Quant (25 December 2016)

NCM gold
BDR  gold
OGC gold 
RRL gold 
SLR gold 

theres a theme here and no im not a gold bug


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## nulla nulla (26 December 2016)

BHP - Iron ore, coal, copper, gold & oil; 
CSR - building materials (particularly in the US);
GPT - REIT a bit oversold atm;
SYD - Infrastructure oversold atm; and
VCX - REIT retail shopping centres, riding the euphoric consumer spending and credit card debt.


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## Logique (26 December 2016)

Logique's picks for 2017 are:

- APX - Appen
- BPT - Beach Energy
- CMP - Compumedics
- ISD - iSentia Group
- NUH - Nuheara


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## explod (26 December 2016)

NST
MOY
RMS
MML
CYL thanks Joe. 

Apart from CYL the same gold stocks as last year.  Not a trader anymore I look long term on the fundamentals of producers of gold which in turn will rise as markets based on unbacked paper printing will gradually fail in my view.  Happy festive all and good investing in 2017


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## nioka (28 December 2016)

EDE
TAS
BUL
GPP
SYA


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## Nortorious (28 December 2016)

I'll be in, just need to do my scans to find the best 5 for 2017.


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## djones (29 December 2016)

Heres my picks for the year:

*EMC* - power efficient wastewater treatment technology targeting China with excellent management and high profile backers.
*OOK* - shell controlled by Faldi Ismail from Otsana Capital who have reverse listed the likes of CR8 and DTZ. Smart team and skin in the game.
*SMN* - aircraft fatigue monitoring systems, only FAA approved solution, patent protected, backed by Delta and other big OEMs on the long road to commercialisation.
*GNX* - solar farm in northern queensland and pumped hydro storage project. Should see first cashflow this year. Again, smart management team with past success.
*LBT* - automated, artificial intelligence for screening and interpretation of culture plates in microbiology labs, only tech FDA approved, ramping up for commercialisation this year.


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## noirua (29 December 2016)

SBM - St Barbara
BPT  - Beach Energy
NCM - Newcrest
FMG - Fortescue
OSH - Oil Search

Thanks Joe


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## Miner (29 December 2016)

MCT
DNA
GNG
MCS
SMX


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## Nortorious (30 December 2016)

My picks are (not sure if these are the best 5 for 2017 but beach time is calling....)

AGL
GFY
ENN
PTB
CVC


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## So_Cynical (30 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
> A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.







Miner said:


> MCT
> DNA
> GNG
> MCS
> SMX




MCS is suspended and has been since August and doesn't meet the 100K rule.


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## myrtie100 (30 December 2016)

FMG
ISX
BNO
IFN
SLX


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## Wysiwyg (30 December 2016)

My selections -

VOC
SYD
3PL
AWC
CCL


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## odds-on (30 December 2016)

BKL
PTM
TPM
VAH
VOC

Cheers


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## Acetrade (30 December 2016)

AYS
EMC
MMJ
SKC
ZLD

Thanks, gl in the new year.


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## rcm617 (31 December 2016)

HZN
AHZ
VOC
FID
CNW


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## tech/a (31 December 2016)

NOR
NAE
GMC
PDN
AGO

As GMC will be suspended for some time
Could I change that for IAM

Thanks
Happy new year everyone.


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## rcm617 (31 December 2016)

rcm617 said:


> HZN
> AHZ
> VOC
> FID
> CNW



Should have read the rules more thoroughly, FID and CNW don't qualify, could I replace them with ADA and SMX please


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## OmegaTrader (31 December 2016)

My five picks:
* mzn 
 nae 
 mgx 
 iam 
 NWH *

I think they all meat the volume+ other  criteria
if any are unsuitable swap with 

CGF
NCK

Good luck everyone!

Thanks Joe


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## trillionaire#1 (31 December 2016)

MEB
SAR
CR8
RMX
GPP

Should have spent more time on this given it's for the whole year!
Anyway all good fun, NYE beckens - enjoy the comp everyone.


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 December 2016)

bhp
bhp
bhp
bhp
bhp
I see it going to $100 plus in calendar year 2017 and am piling in.


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## pinkboy (31 December 2016)

LICs are mostly trading at healthy premiums, but going the conservative approach just like I usually would.

Not holding any stock at moment (sold out all to purchase my business premises), but keen to get back in the game soon.

ARG
MLT
BKI
WAM
CDM

pinkboy


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## Joe Blow (1 January 2017)

Entries in the 2017 full year competition will remain open until midnight tonight, so if you haven't entered already please don't forget to do so today.


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## So_Cynical (1 January 2017)

BPF - Bulletproof, cloud services provider.
TCH - Touchcorp, the Touch system platform.
RIC - Ridley, manufacture and development of animal nutrition products.
SPZ - Smart parking, design, development and management of parking technology.
NSL - NSL Consolidated, Indian iron and steel development.


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## Wyatt (1 January 2017)

SLR
BPT
FMG
ILU
RAP

Thanks Joe


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## systematic (2 January 2017)

MGX
CAA
GRR
MAH
FWD


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## VSntchr (2 January 2017)

Just poking my head in and realised I may be a few hours late!! 
If I've made the deadline then ill choose the following:

*VOC*
*WBA*
*SRX*
*XTD*
*TPP*
Thanks Joe and all the contributors who have assisted in designing the comp.


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## tinhat (2 January 2017)

If I am not too late I would like to have a punt on the following please:

CZI
DMP
MTR
NRT
VOC


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## tech/a (2 January 2017)

tech/a said:


> NOR
> NAE
> GMC
> PDN
> ...




*Sorry a Further change!!*


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## robusta (2 January 2017)

Another one that may be very late....

ALU
BKL
SRX
TPM
XRO


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## Younga (2 January 2017)

Another very late entry....
FMG
BSL
CSR
XPE
QAN


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## peter2 (2 January 2017)

Keep them coming.
tech/a I'll start another thread for you.

Hey does "skaffold" or "RM" or "Motley" or others like them have a five for 2017?


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## explod (2 January 2017)

Trading does not start till tomorrow, cumoorn Joe, let em go till 9am before trading, this is going to be a great comp and interest builder this year.

Just my HUMBLE yeer, two cents.


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## mcgrath111 (2 January 2017)

VOC
MSB
SRX
A2M
_Deleted WOW for SRF_

Thanks Joe - Hope I'm not too late.

Also just changed WOW for SRF

Good luck to all!


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## skc (2 January 2017)

Here are my picks if it's not too late.
- APX - small cap language IT firm catching the voice command tailwind
- SEA - US shale oil company - more than viable if oil price keeps reversing
- QBE - It's been bad for so long...
- S2R - A punt on the team behind SIR
- SRX - Big catalyst ahead in 2017. May or may not work out but R:R seems attractive at these levels


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## Sdajii (3 January 2017)

SKB
TGR
IFN
BPT
SYR


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## peter2 (3 January 2017)

Welcome to the 2017 year long tipping competition.

There are 36 competitors, four ETFs, the All Ordinaries (XAO) index and a "special" guest tipster. 

The four ETFs are:
STW - SPDR S&P/ASX200 Fund
GEAR - Betashares geared ETF based on the ASX200.
VAP - Vanguard's Property ETF based on the S&P/ASX300 A-REIT index.
VSO - Vanguard's small cap ETF based on MSCI ASX Small Cap index

For those of you who posted multiple times I've used the last set of selections. 

Popular selections:
x7    VOC
x4    SRX
x3    BPT FMG


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## tech/a (3 January 2017)

tech/a said:


> NOR
> NAE
> GMC
> PDN
> ...




Just to be sure 
NOR
NAE
BIG
PDN
AGO


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## peter2 (3 January 2017)

Please check your stock codes and the Dec 30th starting prices.  
Please PM me to amend any mistakes. 

(Notorious: Sorry I misspelled your name last year. )

Nobody mention that the Duck's on top after one day.


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## Parse (4 January 2017)

I have no idea how to send a pm on these forums, but in case you read here again Peter, SYT closed at 0.032 on 30/12 according to my TP.


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## pixel (4 January 2017)

Parse said:


> I have no idea how to send a pm on these forums, but in case you read here again Peter, SYT closed at 0.032 on 30/12 according to my TP.



PMs are now called conversations.
Click on the envelope in the UR corner.


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## mcgrath111 (5 January 2017)

Peter is there any possibility of having a weekly post showing how everyone is tracking? 
Not sure if your sheet is largely automated or the degree of work required to update.
Edit: Also it may draw more interest into the comp. 

If it's relatively easy that would be awesome, if not no problem.

Greatly appreciate the work you put into making this comp great!


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## peter2 (5 January 2017)

Parse and Miner I got your "conversation starters". Thank -you.


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## tech/a (5 January 2017)

peter2 said:


> Please check your stock codes and the Dec 30th starting prices.
> Please PM me to amend any mistakes.
> 
> (Notorious: Sorry I misspelled your name last year. )
> ...




Like my Golf
First drive and first hole normally a birdie 

The rest turns to crap.


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## pixel (9 January 2017)




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## peter2 (12 January 2017)

Trial run of some excel macros that pixel kindly provided. 
A one button entry gets all the prices for the 148 stock codes while I'm having a beer.  Thank you pixel. 

The macro automatically gets the prices from a Yahoo financial webpage and a lookup function updates my spreadsheet. All I have to do is arrange the order and cut/paste the table into the final format that I post here. 

As this is a yearly comp I think a monthly update is sufficient.


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## OmegaTrader (12 January 2017)

1) Alot of green but only 12 days out, marathon not sprint
2) AGO wow 48% 
3) I am in the green  Better swap out ASAP 

hahaha


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## PZ99 (12 January 2017)

This year is one day shorter than last year so we have half a chance. lol


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## OmegaTrader (13 January 2017)

PZ99 said:


> This year is one day shorter than last year so we have half a chance. lol



no still no chance


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## peter2 (31 January 2017)

EOM January 2017 update:     The XAO lost 0.8% this month (*-0.8%* YTD)

*LEADER*:  *PZ99* with an impressive *+35.4%*

*Second*: *tech/a* with an impressive *+29.8%*

*Third*: *systematic* with *+23.7%*

_Biggest movers this month_:  The three leaders of course.

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:  *PZ99, Quant, mcgrath111*

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 36)_: 78%



Note:  Let me know if there are any significant errors.


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## Wysiwyg (31 January 2017)

I was trying to think like an investor instead of a penny stock wizard. The year is still young and the pennies can blow up just as readily.


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## systematic (9 February 2017)

Don't know if you wanted to add these to tracking @peter2 but Skaffold have released their Top 5 (we tracked them last year)

NST Northern Star Resources
VTG Vitagroup
NCK Nick Skali
CBA Commonwealth Bank
OFX OFX Group


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## peter2 (9 February 2017)

Last calendar year (2016) Skaffold attained a +6.8% performance from their top 5. 

@systematic, you showed me something new with this new forum software.


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## systematic (9 February 2017)

Ha, someone did it to me otherwise I wouldn't have known either.  Pretty fancy, hey?  But then, I don't even own a smart phone (still holding out) so all that type of thing is above me!


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## pixel (9 February 2017)

@systematic and @peter2 - you got to get out more 
@ is a common indicator in chat groups to direct a comment "at" someone.
(I have to admit though, I hadn't been looking for it in Joe's new Forum software either and managed to survive without  )


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## peter2 (26 February 2017)

I'm sitting here doing my weekly scans and I noticed that the gold stocks are going up, again. I think about our resident "gold bull" and wonder how his golden portfolio is going in the 2017 yearly comp. 

I'm surprised, explod's portfolio is not in my Jan table. Checked the entry thread and sure enough explod gold portfolio has been posted. 

My humblest apologies @explod for not including yours. This has been fixed for the next EOM posting.

Re-checked the entry thread and see that I've not included @Wyatt also. Sorry Wyatt, you're in now. 

What was I on! I don't know, I'll blame pixel's macrobots for getting into my brain. Sorry about that.


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## pinkboy (27 February 2017)

peter2 said:


> I'm sitting here doing my weekly scans and I noticed that the gold stocks are going up, again. I think about our resident "gold bull" and wonder how his golden portfolio is going in the 2017 yearly comp.
> 
> I'm surprised, explod's portfolio is not in my Jan table. Checked the entry thread and sure enough explod gold portfolio has been posted.
> 
> ...




People don't realize how much effort is required that goes into running these types of competitions.  Last year I ran a 'Biggest Loser' type comp on Property Chat for 12 weeks. Adding the human element of actually having to rely on people to weigh in and post their weekly results, then a doing into spreadsheets took a lot of time and patience.

I'm not sure if all your inputs are automatic, but even if they are, it requires some skill and most of all, precious time to.set up and monitor.

Time is what we should all be most appreciated for.  Thanks for taking time out for us on the forum.

pinkboy


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## peter2 (28 February 2017)

EOM February 2017 update: The XAO gained 1.5% this month (*+0.7%* YTD)

_LEADER_: *systematic* with an impressive *+33.3%*

_Second_: *myrtie100* with  *+22.7%*

_Third_: *nioka* with *+20.2%*

_Biggest movers this month_: 
*systematic +10%* 
(all the other big moves were down)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: 
*systematic, myrties100, mcgrath111*

# of competitors > XAO (out of 39): *51%*



Note: Let me know if there are any significant errors.


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## peter2 (31 March 2017)

_BREAKING NEWS_:  Cannabis investor smokes the opposition!  
 ... details to follow...


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## peter2 (31 March 2017)

EOM March 2017 update: The XAO gained 2.5% this month (+3.2% YTD)

_NEW LEADER_: *Acetrade* with an impressive *+72%*

_Second_: *systematic* with *+26%*

_Third_: *mcgrath111* with *+22%*

_Biggest movers this month_: 
*Acetrade* +74% with two cannabis companies in the portfolio
*Parse* +13%, *mcgrath11* +11% 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:   *systematic*

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39)_: 38% (down from 51% last month)



Note: Let me know if there are any significant errors.


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## tech/a (31 March 2017)

I will be changing 2 stocks which I will give you
By the end of the weekend


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## peter2 (31 March 2017)

Yes, competitors may change up to two selections over the next six months (April - Sept). This option was included to allow replacements for stocks that had been taken over (eg. MAH, SMX so far this year). It's also an opportunity to try to take advantage of changing market conditions and sector sentiment as the year unfolds. Think carefully about any changes. The comp. lasts for a year and both market conditions and sentiment change quickly. 

I'm willing to use the next open price (after notification) as the starting price for any replacements posted. I'll go through this thread and make the modifications at the end of each month. You may try to time your replacements if you wish. 

I'm undecided on how to process these replacements. eg if an original selection has lost 30% (1.00 to 0.70) and the replacement selection is 0.20 should I modify the starting price to reflect the existing 30% loss of value (modify 0.20 *1.00/0.70 = 0.2858) ?


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## PZ99 (31 March 2017)

Realistically I'd say it should be the same as your overall gain/loss from selling the original selection and reinvesting in the replacement. My 2c


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## tech/a (1 April 2017)

Well Ill go with whatever you decide.

Sell BIG to lock in 80% profit and open
BOT. (after trading halt)
All others remain as is.

Thanks.


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## peter2 (25 April 2017)

Replacements for April 2017

*tech/a*:  BIG replaced by BOT
BIG sold at next open (3/4) at 0.405 locking in +76.1% gain. 
BOT opened after TH at 0.064. This price has been adjusted down to refect the +76.1 gain from BIG (to 0.03634).

No others posted. EOM update is being processed.


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## peter2 (25 April 2017)

EOM April 2017 update: The XAO remained steady this month (*+3.2%* YTD)

_LEADER_: *Acetrade* with an impressive *+78%*

_Second_: *mcgrath111* *+25%*
_Third_: *systematic       * *+15%*

_Biggest movers this month_:  *Acetrade* +6%, *Parse* +3% 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: NIL

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39)_: 20% (down from 38% last month)


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## tech/a (25 April 2017)

Pete
Can you just check my numbers 
Ta


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## peter2 (26 April 2017)

OMG   For some reason (public holiday during the week) I thought today was the EOM. 

Yes *tech/a* I'll redo the whole spreadsheet at the real EOM. I was about to fall asleep when I realised there are three trading days left before the EOM. 

I've been day trading like a demon for five days trying to improve my skills. This is a perfect example, that day trading wrecks your brain. 

I cannot believe I've gone three days too early.


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## tech/a (26 April 2017)

All good


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## Logique (28 April 2017)

I'm on the upswing - only third last now


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## Craton (28 April 2017)

peter2 said:


> OMG   For some reason (public holiday during the week) I thought today was the EOM.
> 
> Yes *tech/a* I'll redo the whole spreadsheet at the real EOM. I was about to fall asleep when I realised there are three trading days left before the EOM.
> 
> ...



Heh heh, no probs. Nothing like getting lost in the stocks... lol.

Many thanks though for giving us a tally at each EOM Peter. Cheers.


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## peter2 (28 April 2017)

_My apologies again for the pre-emptive EOM blunder. _

*EOM April 30th 2017 update*: The XAO gained 0.6% this month (*+3.8%* YTD)

_LEADER_: *Acetrade* *+64%*

2nd: *mcgrath111* *+29%*
3rd:  *systematic* *+16%*

_Biggest movers this month_: *mcgrath111 *+7%,* Parse *+4% 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: *systematic* (very consistent again, like last year) 

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39)_: 15% (down from 38% last month)



@tech/a  I've recalculated your results with no compounding. BOT starts as new trade.


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## OmegaTrader (17 May 2017)

peter2 said:


> _My apologies again for the pre-emptive EOM blunder. _
> 
> *EOM April 30th 2017 update*: The XAO gained 0.6% this month (*+3.8%* YTD)
> 
> ...




Far out I am getting smashed. Short term they went ok and then fizzed off.
I think my new strategy will be to follow systematic. He also dominates the monthly comp as well.

cheers


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## peter2 (1 June 2017)

*<<<  Warning: Looking at the spreadsheet may be upsetting for many readers. >>>*

EOM May 2017 update: The XAO fell 3.1% this month (*+0.7%* YTD)

LEADER: *Acetrade* *+20%*

2nd: *PZ99* *+10%*
3rd: *systematic* *+8%*

_Biggest gains this month_: PZ99 +4.7%, miner +4% 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:  none

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39)_: 13% (down from 15% last month)


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## Logique (1 June 2017)

Thanks Peter,
as a group, hardly smashing it are we! Difficult market. I'm surging up the ladder, only 5th last now.


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## tech/a (1 June 2017)

Typically triple bogie on the ninth
Only luck will see me under par on the back nine!


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## So_Cynical (2 June 2017)

peter2 said:


> *<<<  Warning: Looking at the spreadsheet may be upsetting for many readers. >>>*
> 
> _Competitors with 5/5 positive_:  none
> 
> _# of competitors > XAO (out of 39)_: 13% (down from 15% last month)




There is a heap of us just in the red, 17 out of 39 in the red by less than 10% ~ its not a total disaster..

Glass half full.


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## peter2 (1 July 2017)

*EOM June 2017 update*: The XAO stayed about the same as last month (*+0.8%* YTD)

LEADER: *Acetrade* *+22%* 

2nd: *mcgrath111* *+14%*
3rd: *Younga* *+9%*

_Biggest gains this month_: mcgrath111 +14%, Younga +13%, Parse, Logique +11%, nioka +8%

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: _none_

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39): 8 (20%) 


_


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## pinkboy (2 July 2017)

Pretty chuffed to be in the first column with just some boring old LICs.  

pinkboy


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## mcgrath111 (31 July 2017)

I forgot about this comp and my entries...this has performed better than me this year :/ lol


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## peter2 (31 July 2017)

Breaking news from the July EOM update . . . there has been a leadership spill ...

The scrutineers are slowly recovering from the shock and will start the recount after a medicinal nip or two.


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## peter2 (1 August 2017)

*EOM July 2017 update*: The XAO stayed about the same as last month (+1.0% YTD)

_NEW LEADER_: *systematic* *+24%* 

_2nd_:  *Acetrade* *+18.5%*
_3rd_: *mcgrath111* *+13.5%*

Biggest gains this month: systematic +15%,  Mr BHP +10% (Garpal Gumnut)

Competitors with 5/5 positive: *pinkboy* 

# of competitors > XAO (out of 39): 10 (26%)


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## So_Cynical (1 August 2017)

Joe Blow said:


> *If a stock is taken over* it can be replaced. The exit price shall be taken to be the takeover price. The new stock must be nominated before the date the taken over stock ceases trading and the entry price of the new stock shall be taken to be the closing price on the day the taken over stock ceases trading.




I sort of though my TCH shares would roll over into APT shares...i can see where Peter got the 1.67 from, its about the T/O price.


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## rcm617 (1 August 2017)

Could I replace my SMX which is being taken over with CNW please, Thanks Peter.


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## mcgrath111 (1 August 2017)

Ah srf, what a dog of a stock you are.

Can I please change SRF to MYX. Thanks Joe.


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## PZ99 (1 August 2017)

3 Dumps in a month tipped old PZ over a cliff. That humble pie tastes yuk I tells ya


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## pinkboy (1 August 2017)

peter2 said:


> *EOM July 2017 update*: The XAO stayed about the same as last month (+1.0% YTD)
> 
> _NEW LEADER_: *systematic* *+24%*
> 
> ...




Boring LICs.....just chugging along with compounding growth! 

pinkboy


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## peter2 (1 August 2017)

@So_Cynical   I was unaware of the details of the merger [TCH shareholders receive 0.64*APT]
As you suggest, all I need to do is include the prices of APT. Is this OK?


It might be more accurate if I adjust the final price of TCH to 0.64 * Open price of APT = 1.728
This way you get the full benefit as an existing shareholder in the opening price of APT. 



I'll use the second calculation unless you have another suggestion.


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## peter2 (1 August 2017)

@mcgrath111   SRF has been replaced by MYX on today's open.

As SRF has lost 61% since the start your MYX adjusted start price also shows this -61%.
ie. MYX must increase by 156% before this parcel shows a profit.

@rcm617  SMX has been replaced by CNW.

SMX has gained +35% since the start and you've elected to "let it ride" on CNW rather than bank the profits. Today's CNW opening price will be adjusted to show this 35% gain in the table.

It's easier for me to do the replacements asap rather than all at the EOM. 

Good luck to all.


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## So_Cynical (1 August 2017)

peter2 said:


> @So_Cynical   I was unaware of the details of the merger [TCH shareholders receive 0.64*APT]
> As you suggest, all I need to do is include the prices of APT. Is this OK?
> View attachment 72097
> 
> ...




2nd option sounds good to me, thank you.


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## skc (2 August 2017)

peter2 said:


> @So_Cynical   I was unaware of the details of the merger [TCH shareholders receive 0.64*APT]
> As you suggest, all I need to do is include the prices of APT. Is this OK?
> View attachment 72097
> 
> ...




I think the correct and simple treatment is to adjust his entry price for APT to what he paid for the TCH adjusted for the merger ratio. So in essence he paid $1.71 (=$1.095 / 0.64) for his APT share.

It makes a difference because the accounting for this competition is based on percentages. If you put APT and TCH down as 2 separate entries, the sum of the percentage change of these two positions is less than the actual percentage change of So_C's position.


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## So_Cynical (2 August 2017)

skc said:


> I think the correct and simple treatment is to adjust his entry price for APT to what he paid for the TCH adjusted for the merger ratio. So in essence he paid $1.71 (=$1.095 / 0.64) for his APT share.
> 
> It makes a difference because the accounting for this competition is based on percentages. If you put APT and TCH down as 2 separate entries, the sum of the percentage change of these two positions is less than the actual percentage change of So_C's position.




Ok i thought that would be the case, the above fix sounds good, especially in this case as its not a straight up T/O, i wasn't sure how to figure out the correct entry price.


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## peter2 (1 September 2017)

EOM August 2017 update: The XAO stayed about the same as last month (*+1.0%* YTD)

_LEADER_: *systematic* *+30%* 

_2nd_: *Acetrade* *+28%*
_3rd_: *robusta* *+12%*

_Biggest gains this month_: Parse +16% (DCC), explod +14% (gold), Omegatrader +11% (NWH)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ pinkboy 

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39):_ 13 (33%)


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## peter2 (2 October 2017)

EOM September 2017 update: The XAO dropped a little but hasn't moved since Jan (+0.5% YTD).

There was a bit of shuffling in the pack and the top six are compressing. 

_LEADER:_ *systematic* *+29%* 

_2nd:_ *Acetrade* *+18%*
_3rd:_ *robusta* *+16%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ nioka +21% (BUL)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ pinkboy 

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39):_ 14 (36%)


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## peter2 (31 October 2017)

EOM October 2017 update: The XAO gained 4% in October(+4.5% YTD).

The top four are very compressed. Two months to go.

_LEADER_: *systematic* *+35%* 

_2nd:_ *nioka* *+34%*
_3rd_: *mcgrath111* *+33%*
_4th:_ *robusta* *+32%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ 
*nioka* +20% (BUL), *mcgrath111* +20% (A2M), *Parse* +20%(DCC), *robusta* +16%(all 5 gained)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *pinkboy* 
_
# of competitors > XAO (out of 39):_ 16 (41%)


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## systematic (4 November 2017)

peter2,

This is one for next year (posting now so I don't have to remember).

In November's issue of Money Magazine, Martin Roth (author of, 'Top Stocks') provides 5 of his picks for 2018 from his upcoming, 'Top Stocks 2018' book.  So, like with the Skaffold selections, we can add these to the 2018 comp.  His picks from his Top Stocks 2018 and provided to Money Magazine, are:

*BPT* Beach Energy
*EVN* Evolution Mining
*TGR *Tassal Group
*NHF* NIB Holdings* 
TNE *Technology One


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## verce (5 November 2017)

This one is also for next year as well (2018 is gonna be huge for growth with energy prices skyrocketing!)

*VIV* has some exciting clients including Coca Cola and Woolworths.

Mkt cap ~$18 million
Orders received to date for delivery in the 2017/2018 financial year now total $4.3 million

Collaboration with CSIRO for the design and development of energy efficient light
[ Source: https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/MF...onment/Coatings-and-surfaces/Fast-and-Furious ]

https://twitter.com/EECouncil/status/926237613706620929


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## tech/a (5 November 2017)

Ha
If I’d have kept BIG from the start ,23c
Would have given this a shake!!

It is what it is!!


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## peter2 (5 November 2017)

So glad you brought that up tech/a. I'd noticed and even did a little mock-up for you. 
BIG has gone higher this month.


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## tech/a (5 November 2017)

Thanks mate 
Wasn’t allowed to te enter!
But the. Again I could have in June I think? I seem to remember a rule
Not on my game!! 

As I’ve always said
You only need to get it really right once in life
This wasn’t one of mine!!


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## systematic (5 November 2017)

Woah!  Ten-bagger, tech/a!  Well done, regardless!
So hope you had this one in 'real life!'


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## tech/a (5 November 2017)

Some of it not all of it 
About half of sitting in there


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## peter2 (30 November 2017)

After the bullish market rally I'm sure you'll be expecting lots of changes. You're right. The leader changed four times as I was going down the list. A few micro-cap stocks have surged and produced large percentage gains in Nov.

Our esteemed member and long time leader has dropped out of the placings even after increasing his/her % gain. 

I'm going to leave you in suspense while I research the ASX news to find out what happened to one stock that's changed it name and it looks like there's been a reconstruction as well.


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## peter2 (30 November 2017)

EOM November 2017 update: The XAO gained 1.4% in Nov(+5.9% YTD).

New leader!  

_LEADER_: *PZ99   +108%*
_2nd:_ *Parse      +63%*
_3rd_:    *Acetrade  +56%*
_4th:_ *nioka       +52%*

_Biggest gains this month:_ 
*PZ99* +101% (LPD), *Parse* +45%(DCC), *Acetrade* +34%(MMJ,ZLD)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *nil*
_
# of competitors > XAO (out of 39):_ 18 (46%)


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## systematic (30 November 2017)

peter2 said:


> Our esteemed member and long time leader has dropped out of the placings even after increasing his/her % gain.




Ha, ha; and there I was getting quite comfy in that spot!  

You're right, some huge moves have happened in some of these stocks!


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## Logique (2 December 2017)

Thanks for the update Peter. I was dead last at one point during the year, but rapt to be now beating the index


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## Logique (14 December 2017)

Peter, sorry if this has been covered before, but how do you calculate the overall percentage gain?
My bundle has moved on a little bit from your last review on 30 Nov, which said a then 6.4% gain.  But I think I've done better than that.

If I assume an equal investment in each of my five stocks (say $1 each):
January initial $5.00 ; value on 14 Dec: $8.17 ; so $8.17 / $5 = 63.4% gain

Admittedly, it's the same calculation for everyone, so it wouldn't change the tipster placings.


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## PZ99 (14 December 2017)

Logique said:


> Peter, sorry if this has been covered before, but how do you calculate the overall percentage gain?
> My bundle has moved on a little bit from your last review on 30 Nov, which said a then 6.4% gain.  But I think I've done better than that.
> 
> If I assume an equal investment in each of my five stocks (say $1 each):
> ...



Add all your percentages up and divide by 5.

So as of today it's 174% + 34% - 57% - 53% - 38% = 60% / 5 = *12*% YTD

Not bad


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## Wysiwyg (14 December 2017)

PZ99 said:


> Add all your percentages up and divide by 5.
> 
> So as of today it's 174% + 34% - 57% - 53% - 38% = 60% / 5 = *12*% YTD
> 
> Not bad



 Shows exactly why buy and hold is not a great strategy.


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## systematic (19 December 2017)

peter2,

Another set of picks for next year - posting now so I don't have to remember...

Lincoln Indicators (via ASX)
source link

CGL The Citadel Group
PME Pro Medicus
PPS Praemium
SLK SeaLink Travel Group
CCP Credit Corp
_
As we only want 5 stocks and they provided 8 stocks, here are 2 comments to justify the above 5.

Note 1: 
The top 4 are the 'star growth' stocks (which I have selected) as the next group of 4 are star income stocks.  I don't expect any debate that this comp is geared toward growth over income.

Note 2:
That left a need to select one extra stock from the 4 income stocks...which they made easy because they state that Credit Corp also qualifies as a star growth stock.  So that gives us our 5._


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## nulla nulla (26 December 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Shows exactly why buy and hold is not a great strategy.



Just out of curiosity did you calculate the result including dividends? This would give a more realistic result for the "buy and hold" investor.


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## Logique (26 December 2017)

My Full CY 2018 selections are:
GXY
LPD
KDR
PLS
SXY


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## Wysiwyg (26 December 2017)

nulla nulla said:


> Just out of curiosity did you calculate the result including dividends? This would give a more realistic result for the "buy and hold" investor.



Yes you are right about adding dividends making the end result look better. For a fixed term competition hold though, cull the detracting, let the winners run in my opinion.


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## peter2 (26 December 2017)

There are  only three trading days left until the end of this CY2017 competition. 

The order of the top six has been changing frequently. I have not looked for miracles outside the top6. If there is one then it'll be a surprise for us all. 

_Dividends:_ If the difference between any of the top six is <10% I will include all dividends paid during the year. Currently, dividends may determine the 3rd placed competitor. I won't include divs for any other set of selections.


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## peter2 (29 December 2017)

Well that's it for 2017. I'll get the abacus out or better yet, do any of you remember VisiCalc ?


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## peter2 (29 December 2017)

EOY 2017 Final Results: The XAO ended the year *+7.8%* 

_WINNER for 2017 _: *Parse  +111% *(DCC +645%)

_2nd_: *PZ99    +86%* (LPD +436%)
_3rd_: *djones  +66%  *(OOK +383%)

Very honourable mentions to *systematic* (+50%) and *robusta* (+42%) whose final results were spread across all selections rather than one lucky pick. 

_Biggest gains this month_:  *djones* +60% (OOK), *Parse* +47% (DCC)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ *pinkboy* who got there with divs. 

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 39):_ 18 (46%)


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## tech/a (29 December 2017)

Great Job Pete.

Well done to all those who participated.
The Duck made one BIG error!
But hey happy new year


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## Joe Blow (29 December 2017)

A fantastic result in 2017 with 18 of the 39 entrants beating the XAO. Well done! 

On top of coming second in the 2017 yearly competition, PZ99 has also won the last two monthly competitions as well. Impressive stuff.

Can Parse, PZ99 and djones please contact me via PM regarding their prizes.

A huge thanks must go to peter2 for keeping track of the results in the calendar year competition and for posting the monthly updates. Thank you Peter for keeping this competition alive and for taking the time to update us every month. Your efforts are sincerely appreciated!


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## peter2 (29 December 2017)

It's my pleasure to contribute a little of my time to this community. 

To *tech/a*, thanks mate. I love your passion. This pic is just for you.


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## Logique (29 December 2017)

Thanks for running this Peter, and a very prompt final summary, well done. And of course thanks Joe for hosting it.

Well done the podium finishing tipsters, but interesting to note that both first and second would both be disqualified under 2018 rules, each picked several stocks below $0.10 in Jan 2017.  But it's not the Sydney - Hobart race, and I won't be protesting

Some hot tipsters in here. I comfortably beat both the index and the ETFs, but could only finish 15th!


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## Joe Blow (29 December 2017)

For those who kept track of the 2017 competition but didn't enter, now's your chance to join in the fun in 2018.

Post your entries here and have a crack at next year's competition: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2018.33678


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## tech/a (29 December 2017)

peter2 said:


> It's my pleasure to contribute a little of my time to this community.
> 
> To *tech/a*, thanks mate. I love your passion. This pic is just for you.
> 
> View attachment 85409




Thanks mate 
I feel like the guy who paid 85 bitcoins for a pizza!


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## PZ99 (29 December 2017)

Logique said:


> Thanks for running this Peter, and a very prompt final summary, well done. And of course thanks Joe for hosting it.
> 
> Well done the podium finishing tipsters, but interesting to note that both first and second would both be disqualified under 2018 rules, each picked several stocks below $0.10 in Jan 2017.  But it's not the Sydney - Hobart race, and I won't be protesting
> 
> Some hot tipsters in here. I comfortably beat both the index and the ETFs, but could only finish 15th!



Yep, agreed.... I delayed submitting my post by one hour as an attempted redress 

One cent stock was a fluke but there's plenty of potential 10c multi baggers out there so plenty of fun to be had for 2018.

Happy new year all and a big thanks to peter2 for updating the comp.


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## pinkboy (29 December 2017)

peter2 said:


> EOY 2017 Final Results: The XAO ended the year *+7.8%*
> 
> _WINNER for 2017 _: *Parse  +111% *(DCC +645%)
> 
> ...




Was watching WAM all day in hope that it finished the day on $2.41 - same price as of start of the year.  Not a bad result being off by 1c for my 5 picks.

Pretty hard to go with LICs for 2018 - all at high prices.  Ill have a look for next years comp.

Thanks again for the upkeep of the competition.

pinkboy


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## peter2 (29 December 2017)

Systematic's selections were the *only* batch to avoid going below zero throughout the year.

The selections of *systematic*, *robusta*, *Acetrade*, *mcgrath111* and *pinkboy* were the most consistent throughout the year.


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## So_Cynical (30 December 2017)

Some impressive results for sure, Thank you so very much Peter and Joe, great work in supporting this, my downfall was bulletproof and NSL, almost any other picks would of made me competitive for the top 5, but a win in last years comp and 10th place here with 28.2% return is still pleasing.

It seems that one big winner is needed and no big single losers.


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## Parse (31 December 2017)

Well, I can't believe this and peter2 is right, one lucky pick! Actually I expected the mining picks to do better by moving towards actual mining, DCC (and THD) were just there because I figured if they were going to bounce back during the year it should be a reasonable bounce. Those 2 were pretty well bashed in 2016. Did I have shares in DCC? Yes. Did I sell them way to early? Yes.

But hey thanks for hosting the competition Joe.


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## tech/a (31 December 2017)

Unfortunately the one pick wonder is the aim
BIG held would have creamed it.

So it means we have 5 chances to find a pick in a sector that has the potential 
Of increasing in price 3 to 10 times.

If the comp was limited to stocks over $2 then the results would be more even 
Across the board and in my view display more about the skill of The competitors.


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## systematic (31 December 2017)

peter2 said:


> EOY 2017 Final Results: The XAO ended the year *+7.8%*
> 
> _WINNER for 2017 _: *Parse  +111% *(DCC +645%)
> 
> ...





Thanks SO very much peter2 for recording and posting on this (and previous) annual comps.  So very much appreciated - you do an awesome job!  Of course, thanks also to Joe for hosting and the prizes!

Well done Parse and the placegetters - and EVERYONE who had a go, as the more the merrier for a fun comp! I hope everyone has a go in 2018!


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## systematic (31 December 2017)

peter2 said:


> Systematic's selections were the *only* batch to avoid going below zero throughout the year.
> 
> The selections of *systematic*, *robusta*, *Acetrade*, *mcgrath111* and *pinkboy* were the most consistent throughout the year.
> View attachment 85413




Was a nice run...wish every year of investing was like this!


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## systematic (31 December 2017)

tech/a said:


> Unfortunately the one pick wonder is the aim
> BIG held would have creamed it.
> 
> So it means we have 5 chances to find a pick in a sector that has the potential
> ...




I hear you tech/a.  
I don't think absolute price (e.g. $2) is the best way though, I'd rather see $ volume.  It's why I originally suggested a $ volume minimum...which we got...but I also argued for (and didn't get) a higher $ volume than what is currently required ($100k total volume over prior 5 days).

The other option would be to increase from 5 picks to a larger amount (say, 20?) which would lessen the impact of outliers, but that then lacks the concentration factor of wanting people's 'best ideas'

Still - there's no reason not to start yet another comp (if someone wanted to)...e.g. I suggested an ASX300 comp...stocks liquid enough for most individual investors.  Being a liquid set of stocks, people could pick however many they wanted for a portfolio (1 stock, 10 stocks or all 300!)  
Maybe a 'pick however many stocks you want from the ASX300' would be a cool idea for another comp...


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## rcm617 (31 December 2017)

Thanks Peter for donating your time for this competition and thanks Joe for running the competition, great for getting ideas. 
I think there has been a mistake in my calculations, not that it makes much difference but at least it puts me above the index. Hopefully will do a bit better in next years comp.


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## tech/a (31 December 2017)

Poor Pete 20!

Yes like your ideas Systamatic 
Perhaps ASX 100/200/300 whatever 
Would be interesting


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## peter2 (31 December 2017)




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## peter2 (31 December 2017)

@rcm617  You're correct, the calculation formula wasn't working in your EOY results. Sorry.
Your corrected result does place you above the XAO and just ahead of two ETFs. Now you can see how your whole year went.


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## Craton (28 February 2018)

Wow and bugger. Life happens, totally missed the finale AND the 2018 entry. Still it certainly was fun trying to diversify with 5 stocks and to watch the results each month. Congrats to all participants and parse the winner, blue sky one hit wonder, wow.  

Many thanks peter2 for keeping tabs and to Joe for setting up the playing field. Well done everyone.


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