# The Top of the market is Looming?



## Dark1975 (18 February 2021)

With the rising of real estate eventually the last indicator in the Top of the Boom as show in the attachment .
There is alot more indicators that will need to happen before i conclude this.
The early Tell tale signs that the market is topping or starting to bubble :
* Stocks like Tesla and SPACS and crypto like Bitcoin which  made the largest gains are the first to the first to make large daily drops and then recover, Then again large daily drops and slightly recover (rinse and repeat)
Usually the last two sectors that finish well in the Top of the Boom is Energy stocks and precious metals / commodities,
Well , It's really hard to predict the market, No one really can,
Tho with past indicators we can hypothetically come to a near conclusion that the top of the boom is nearing .
Markets always crash, its not a matter if , it"s when?
R.kiyosaki and Jim pickards - the new depression , a great watch indeed , If you get a chance, a must watch for any savvy investor
And pls DYOR , not financial advice by any means,  Just my personal take as long term investor


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## investtrader (19 February 2021)

We have had 6 and 12 - falling and rising property prices in one year. We are at 9 with rising commodity prices. And who knows when 1 - rising interest rates are going to happen.
Best defence is run when share prices fall - because price is actually all that matters at the end of the day. As as self directed investor this is your major advantage - being able to get out quickly.


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## basilio (19 February 2021)

I went to an optometrist yesterday to check out my eyes.  He bustled around doing all sorts of checks and then asked me to look at his computer to work out the optimum prescription for close work.

I notice that the open page was on a stock so I lightheartedly said "How are your investments going ?"

Immediately got a 3 minute rundown on just how  profitable his investments in cryptocurrency were at the moment. 4 Fold increase. Worth a motza. Sees it as his next treasure trove.

When your optometrist is punting furiously on cryptocurrency, and spruiking it, maybe its time to get out.


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## Value Collector (19 February 2021)

I just want to mention, that if you are a long term player, living off dividends, and you own good portfolio of day 6 or 7 strong companies or a broad Whole of market index, you don’t actually have to worry about if of when a market crash is going to happen, you can just hold those shares, watching the underlying performance of the companies over time, and just collect your dividends ignoring the ups and downs.

The only people that really get hurt are the once that’s panic sell during a crash and never get back in.

take my Mum for example, she bought into CBA in 1996 for $12.50 per share, did the dividend reinvestment plan, 

She has never sold, and Today her shares are worth $80+ and have paid over $60 in dividends as well.

Sure in 2008 they dropped from $50 to $25 and that caused her some alarm, but she didn’t sell and she actually picked up some cheap shares from the dividend reinvestment plan through the crash.

Some people will immediately say she could have made more money selling at $50 and re-buying at $25 which is technically true, but if here strategy was to trade she also may have sold at times when crashes didn’t come, and ended up paying capital gains taxes and had to buy back in higher.

I guess my point is that trading activity isn’t necessary, and neither is trying to time when crashes will happen, you will be wrong just as often as you are right, and suffer higher taxes and trading fees that offset the gains you might make.


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## vharik831 (19 February 2021)

Market dynamics have changed. I am not sure if there are tops and bottoms anymore. I dont see a sustained selling or buying at any point. Instead, there is a lot of sector rotation(quick) and flash falls and quick recoveries. 

This was not the case during late 2000's when you would have an event, market responded over a period of time and it actually took time for markets to recover from event.


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## tech/a (19 February 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I guess my point is that trading activity isn’t necessary, and neither is trying to time when crashes will happen, you will be wrong just as often as you are right, and suffer higher taxes and trading fees that offset the gains you might make.




While I agree that Trading Isn't necessary I think it can be very beneficial even with the Tax and fees.
My trading account is currently +520% on capital at risk. Since September when I started using this 
smaller funded account.

But I agree timing crashes and re entry may not be perfect but I think opportunity exists on both sides
Getting out early enough to save serious damage to your Financial health and getting back in when
momentum returns. Again you dont have to but I think you should be able to at least be in a position 
anticipate then act.

Limit downside and maximize up side. 
Its what businesses do every day.
There will be those with very good business skills and those with very bad skills.


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## Dark1975 (19 February 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I just want to mention, that if you are a long term player, living off dividends, and you own good portfolio of day 6 or 7 strong companies or a broad Whole of market index, you don’t actually have to worry about if of when a market crash is going to happen, you can just hold those shares, watching the underlying performance of the companies over time, and just collect your dividends ignoring the ups and downs.
> 
> The only people that really get hurt are the once that’s panic sell during a crash and never get back in.
> 
> ...



I enjoyed reading your post 👌, and agreed with many of your points , 
Personally I wont be totally selling out of my positions, I'm actually just leveraging down,
For e.g IF last week I had a portfolio of $900K,
as of today today I am only 200k in long term investments and leveraged more in to cash,
Putting myself in a better position to buy the lows, 
I'd prefer to be" 5mins early " than "5 mins late"
On another note, the volatility is great for day trade 😉
I hope this isn't regarded as financial advice, Just my own personal view, I could be totally wrong ! 
Just as in chess, my position is castling at the moment to protect my position. 
PLs Dyor


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## Value Collector (19 February 2021)

vharik831 said:


> Market dynamics have changed. I am not sure if there are tops and bottoms anymore.




I wouldn't be to sure about that, human nature has not changed, there will be another mass panic at some stage, and this will eventually be followed by another bout of mass greed and FOMO. You can choose to profit from that by trading if you are skilled or lucky if you wish or you can choose to ignore it and profit throughout the cycle via the companies output, but you just have to try and avoid being swept up with it.

I feel that in general, some people that try and time markets are a bit more likely to be swept up in the panic or greed than people who are more agnostic to the movements and focus on value or long term dollar cost averaging.

You can see on threads in various forums peoples panic and pessimism set in, it can be entertaining to watch, its a real three ringed circus sometimes, but I generally ignore the fluctuations and basically do not "Trade", my biggest profits in the share market have all been in shares I have held for 5 years + and never traded.


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## Smurf1976 (19 February 2021)

vharik831 said:


> flash falls and quick recoveries



Ask someone to name the dates of stock market crashes and you'll most likely hear 1987, the dot com crash, the GFC or 1929 mentioned.

Most seem to have already forgotten that we had a pretty decent crash less than a year ago. The speed and extent of recovery is such that it seems to have wiped the occurrence of it from the minds of many.


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## qldfrog (19 February 2021)

indeed this is the XAO:


if you are breakeven with the beginning of 2020, you did very good;
obviously many here made an actual killing in the last year, and i do not complain myself but the correction was severe for the average Joe in his super fund, worse even if he exited and was late to reenter


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## basilio (19 February 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Ask someone to name the dates of stock market crashes and you'll most likely hear 1987, the dot com crash, the GFC or 1929 mentioned.
> 
> *Most seem to have already forgotten that we had a pretty decent crash less than a year ago. The speed and extent of recovery is such that it seems to have wiped the occurrence of it from the minds of many*.




True.  In March last year all the  stock markets collapsed while business tried to work out how they would survive either a collapse of society  or a closing down of industry. 

The only reasons the market recovered were the trillions of dollars of  free money thrown into the economy that essentially stopped economic collapse.

Thats great.  So far. But I suspect many of us are wondering what happens next ?  And frankly I think the roaring back of the stock market on teh back of  much of this stimulus isn't healthy.  My comments on the madness that is cryptocurrency speculation still stand.


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## Smurf1976 (19 February 2021)

basilio said:


> And frankly I think the roaring back of the stock market on teh back of much of this stimulus isn't healthy.



As someone who remembers the dot com bubble and crash pretty well, I'm definitely seeing many parallels here.

A lot of general public interest and involvement directly in the market is one that was present then and is present now.

An overall sense of invincibility and that nothing can go wrong, whilst truly bizarre in view of actual recent world events, also seems to exist now and was present back then. 

Meanwhile the real economy has seemingly done the equivalent of someone being in a head on car crash at high speed, getting out, brushing some dust off themselves then immediately proceeding to board a bus that just happened to be coming past. That's what it looks like but I'm not convinced that there isn't a serious fracture or two that'll become apparent in due course.

Some sort of major fraud usually becomes apparent around the time of a market top. That's another one to look for.


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## joeno (19 February 2021)

basilio said:


> I went to an optometrist yesterday to check out my eyes.  He bustled around doing all sorts of checks and then asked me to look at his computer to work out the optimum prescription for close work.
> 
> I notice that the open page was on a stock so I lightheartedly said "How are your investments going ?"
> 
> ...




That's the state of cryptos and EVs. We're in a K-type market recovery so there are still some sectors heavily beaten down and not even close to pre-COVID prices.

With fee free brokers we're seeing more speculation, small-time gambles than ever. More newbies, more traders, less investors. Faster moves up, and as a consequence faster moves down once we do get in a crash scenario. We can see this lately with GME. Everything's gravy when the stock is going up everyone is buying, but panic when it goes down and everyone is trying not to be the last one through the doors.


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## Smurf1976 (20 February 2021)

One thing I'll note is that if you simply get a list of ASX stocks and manually start going through charts, that is actually look at charts not use any kind of software to scan for whatever but actually look at the chart yourself, you'll pretty quickly realise that there are some stocks in clear uptrends doing very nicely but there's plenty of others that are going nowhere or down.

The current market isn't one where simply randomly throwing money at it will work.


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## Smurf1976 (20 February 2021)

More often than not, energy's an issue around major market tops. Either the price of energy commodities or physical supply constraints.

Thus far in this cycle we've seen some localised problems with electricity supply in China, Japan, France, parts of the US and a few other random places. Those however relate to local technical or logistics issues, they aren't caused by any lack of availability of coal, gas, fuel oil or uranium at the global level.

Nor is price an issue. Prices are trending up but at present thermal coal, oil and natural gas are all at what could be described as pretty normal sorts of prices. There's no crisis, there's no shock.

So that's one factor often seen around market tops that's missing at present - pay attention though since prices are creeping up.  

Note in that regard that oil's more important in this sense than gas or coal. The other two are important as such, but oil's the key one to watch.


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## basilio (20 February 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> More often than not, energy's an issue around major market tops. Either the price of energy commodities or physical supply constraints.
> 
> Note in that regard that oil's more important in this sense than gas or coal. The other two are important as such, but oil's the key one to watch.




Going to be interesting on oil. International travel is still on its knees. I suggest sea trade is still sluggish.
The big push at the moment is EV cars so  it seems likely oil use with cars will not continue on its previous trajectory and in fact could fall away within a few years.

If/when heavy transport becomes electric that will also reduce underlying oil demand.

But the most significant element will be a  stronger world wide push to reduce fossil fuel use to tackle CC. Now that Biden is President of the US the internal and external politics of tackling global warming via reductions in carbon use will be accelerated. Even the industry is acknowledging that demand will not continue to rise.

And of course  renewable energy has now become far more competitive than fossil fuel.

The other question is how much permanent  supply destruction there has been in the oil industry as prices have fallen?


			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


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## investtrader (20 February 2021)

......


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## Dark1975 (20 February 2021)

Some other concerns for myself that wasn't posted originally as there's so much to digest!

Firstly let's look at the Dow jones and the
S & P 500,
Well as its very well known for traders, That our XAO ( ASX ) markets virtually mirrors the Dow charts ( not always) but typically if you pulled up 10 year charts you would see the comparison like a mirror (see att)
There's a old expression I learned early in trading, " when America sneezes , The world catches a cold"
So hence my research is always invested heavily on what  the American Economy is doing / inc politics, involves 2-3 hours per day,

So we move on to my first issue , The three trillion added by the Fed in early covid , Which was Amazing amount added, which we look 9 months later @ the current highs, Concerning?
Tho how many dollars were added last year?
Well infact if u look @ 200 years of amercian history as dollars, last year 20% of all American dollars created last year alone,
That's right 1 in 5 of all money created in u.s history was created last year ? Concerning?
Will not debate if it causes high inflation/ pull- push deflation/ stagflation (cause this is a whole topic alone )
My point being is America's Debt level vs GDP
Will show attachments,
The stock market only looks at futures and not at current, Tho come April 19th the real GDP numbers will come in, This is my concern.
With another 2trill stim to come, Concerning?
We will digress further,
With past crashes from 1987 through to 2009, Greenspan has two options that worked well, which seen one of the longest bull runs in history,
Tho the cash rate is @ 0% - so the lever is broken on one option, So hence we can't lower rates to give a injection spark as we have in the past 20 years,
Leads my to there last option : printing more money? This can only last so long, As the U.S dollar is losing its status quo , And with Debt levels never seen since World War 2 ( see attach)
With crypto booming dawning the new age of future curriences, I see alot of countries racing to set to new polices! Are we looking at a currency reset in the future?
Cause personally this time right now reminds me of 1972 where nixon took the u.s currency off the gold standard.
Because right now , I can't see America paying its debt levels due to GDP levels,
As I linked the first video with Jim prickards ,
He discusses The S & P is market capp indexed , So altho 6-7 of the largest companies like Google/ Microsoft/ amazon etc represents 40% of the S & P , like Jim reminds us, What about 30-40 % of sole trading business that represents the other half of GDP , Some restaurants and cafes are  closed and may never come back.
Anyways more input later, Tho i think we haven't seen what's behind the curtain yet?


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## Value Collector (20 February 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> And with Debt levels never seen since World War 2 ( see attach)



Compounded growth works like that.

The USA economy is the largest it has ever been in the last 200 years, so you would expect debt to be the highest its ever been, everything grows as the economy grows including debt.

Yes there is more money in circulation, but there is also more avocados, cars, movies, etc etc etc being consumed than ever before, and the money can be removed from circulation if needs be, the Fed has the ability to shrink or expand the money supply when ever it wants.


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## Smurf1976 (20 February 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Yes there is more money in circulation, but there is also more avocados, cars, movies, etc etc etc being consumed than ever before, and the money can be removed from circulation if needs be, the Fed has the ability to shrink or expand the money supply when ever it wants.



Agreed but if Fed did shrink the amount of money then what happens to the market?

My expectations is that any shrinkage is going to prove extremely difficult in practice without blowing anything up.


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## Dark1975 (20 February 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Compounded growth works like that.
> 
> The USA economy is the largest it has ever been in the last 200 years, so you would expect debt to be the highest its ever been, everything grows as the economy grows including debt.
> 
> Yes there is more money in circulation, but there is also more avocados, cars, movies, etc etc etc being consumed than ever before, and the money can be removed from circulation if needs be, the Fed has the ability to shrink or expand the money supply when ever it wants.



The fed can shrink or expand the money supply ?
With only with monetary policy , this is either lowering the requirement of the bank reserves required.  Which this has been done,Or play there last hand which increasing the reserves the banks require to have, in effect reducing the amount of loans given,
In short - crushing growth and confidence,
In short any play from here adversely changes the environment.
In short there problem will be GDP vs Debt ,


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## Value Collector (20 February 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed but if Fed did shrink the amount of money then what happens to the market?
> 
> My expectations is that any shrinkage is going to prove extremely difficult in practice without blowing anything up.




if it caused interest rates to start rising again then that would create downward pressure on market prices, as investor demand larger dividend/earnings yield compared to risk free treasury bonds.

But what happens to the market prices of shares is kind of irrelevant, the Fed isn’t there to protect share prices, it’s there to maintain the money supply and support the real economy, which in the long run is good the companies that trade on the share market anyway.

the market prices of the companies we own will fluctuate, but as I explained above that doesn’t real matter that much, the most important thing is that the companies you own continue to do decently, and pay the dividends or create real growth over time.

The earnings yield companies trade on will change like the tides ebbing and flowing, what matters is that those earnings grow and dividends continue.


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## Value Collector (20 February 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> The fed can shrink or expand the money supply ?
> With only with monetary policy , this is either lowering the requirement of the bank reserves required.  Which this has been done,Or play there last hand which increasing the reserves the banks require to have, in effect reducing the amount of loans given,
> In short - crushing growth and confidence,
> In short any play from here adversely changes the environment.
> In short there problem will be GDP vs Debt ,




There is a lot more to it than that, for example the fed had been buying loads of government and corporate Bonds and other financial assets.

If the Fed simply stopped these purchases, over time as these existing investments matured the money supply created by them would shrink, if they wanted to shrink faster they could simply begin to sell them, or buy more to expand.


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## Dark1975 (20 February 2021)

Value Collector said:


> There is a lot more to it than that, for example the fed had been buying loads of government and corporate Bonds and other financial assets.
> 
> If the Fed simply stopped these purchases, over time as these existing investments matured the money supply created by them would shrink, if they wanted to shrink faster they could simply begin to sell them, or buy more to expand.



I value your opinion, And yes and I stated previously I wont debate inflation/ mom policy - you could create another topic.
Also I don't want to plant seeds of doubt in young traders that the market will collapse.
I simply putting my personal opinion that I'm moving from bullish to neutral at this point at time.
I could be completely wrong and miss another 10 year bull run.
Tho being that I day trade as a profession and have a family and property and business loans to pay, I'm still in the every day market and just lowering my leverage in a overall position at thus point of time.


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## Dark1975 (23 February 2021)

Could this be the Top of the market?
A little more evidence is needed,
Tho when i was trading crypto markets last night and @ 2.15 am est I seen btc go from 69k to 61k in 10mins, and slowly recovered,
As stated previously a good indication for me is when BTC/ SPACS and stocks like Tesla (-8% last night) that have had massive gains in the market are usually the first to retract with huge daily drops and then slowly recover, And will become more regular  as volatility sets in,
Well a little early too call it yet !
Tho a lot of red flags were pooping up for me, I am currently sitting @ 85% cash atm, and set stop losses on my current holdings,
Indeed a interesting time!
Pls DYOR
And this isn't any financial advice, just my own personal opinion, could be absolutely wrong 😉


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## moXJO (23 February 2021)

Debt to gdp is at near 130%?
Every dollar the government spends is returning less and less the more this number blows out.


Dark1975 said:


> Could this be the Top of the market?
> A little more evidence is needed,
> Tho when i was trading crypto markets last night and @ 2.15 am est I seen btc go from 69k to 61k in 10mins, and slowly recovered,
> As stated previously a good indication for me is when BTC/ SPACS and stocks like Tesla (-8% last night) that have had massive gains in the market are usually the first to retract with huge daily drops and then slowly recover, And will become more regular  as volatility sets in,
> ...



Elon made a negative comment on bitcoin and it dropped. There's still a lot of stimulus to wash through the system and vaccination will open up the world again. It's possible inflation will pump the market a bit more yet.

I am skittish though. I'm usually a year out predicting crashes but it feels very toppy to me.  Watch for black swans out of south China Sea action.


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## Dark1975 (23 February 2021)

moXJO said:


> Debt to gdp is at near 130%?
> Every dollar the government spends is returning less and less the more this number blows out.
> 
> Elon made a negative comment on bitcoin and it dropped. There's still a lot of stimulus to wash through the system and vaccination will open up the world again. It's possible inflation will pump the market a bit more yet.
> ...



Yeah tend to agree with your comments,
Reference to the stimulas to come, is what is probaly holding it up, 
Yes noticed also the elon musk tweet, tho the Asian / Europe market is on now, and still volatile on crypto, good time for a quick flip,
Been flipping bnb (binance) best volatile spreads, 
E.g bought bnb @ $295 last morning and flipped it 20mins later @ $345 - still great opportunity in volatility


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## investtrader (23 February 2021)

The ASX has largely missed the huge 13 year bull  market with total index price return of about 120% over this time, with 3 bear markets in between. It doesn't feel like 2000 where everything was going up, that's for sure.
The US is a totally different story. The S&P 500 returned 600%+ and Nasdaq 1,300%+!!!!!!
It seems obvious that something will crack in the US markets at some point. Then there may be a once in 15 year opportunity. I think maybe futures will be the way to profit unless it short and really sharp like this year and then it is hard for us mortals.

Note : these are monthly charts. Nasdaq is gong parabolic. I didn't post Russell but it is worse.


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## moXJO (24 February 2021)

Michael burry (big short fame) seems to think hyperinflation for the US. Guys twitter is a mess and he just turned it invisible again. Might have just been one of his rants.

Over years though. He thinks it's on the cycle.


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## Craton (24 February 2021)

moXJO said:


> Michael burry (big short fame) seems to think hyperinflation for the US. Guys twitter is a mess and he just turned it invisible again. Might have just been one of his rants.
> 
> Over years though. He thinks it's on the cycle.



A little research led me the businessinsider.com.au re. Burry's predication.
His Twitter account.
More on Burry's thoughts on how BTC and Gold could be squashed by govts due to inflation


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## Dark1975 (24 February 2021)

Craton said:


> A little research led me the businessinsider.com.au re. Burry's predication.
> His Twitter account.
> More on Burry's thoughts on how BTC and Gold could be squashed by govts due to inflation



Im paying attention to him 😉 enjoyed the movie also the big short


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## Dark1975 (26 February 2021)

Will be a bloodbath today, especially in the afternoon, So tempting to buy this afternoon, tho how this is unfolding I will have patience and see how the dow appears on the Friday? Time to get a coffee today @ the beach and get popcorn and enjoy the show
The bears are a wake ?


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## qldfrog (26 February 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> Will be a bloodbath today, especially in the afternoon, So tempting to buy this afternoon, tho how this is unfolding I will have patience and see how the dow appears on the Friday? Time to get a coffee today @ the beach and get popcorn and enjoy the show
> The bears are a wake ?



you assume a dip not a crash...


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## Dark1975 (26 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> you assume a dip not a crash...



Depends on your terms a dip?
Say last week, I would be normally buying in on a classic Friday afternoon sellout, 
Tho today I won't be buying in, i feel like this selloff will be a bit more dangerous to buy in to, given the nature of the volatility on hand gauged on momentum. 
I will protect my postion and see what the dow does, I mean it might be a sell out on the dow come Friday ( investors cautious ) not holding over the weekend , this will lead in to a maybe a buying opportunity Monday?
Plus watching the cypto markets looking shaky, we could see a possible pause and a retraction in the general market,


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## Dark1975 (26 February 2021)

Mr frog,
If you get a chance to watch this clip?
Watch from 30.30 mins , it will only take 2mins, but this is my theory also on the start of the cracks showing
Great watch from co- founder of Boston gmo


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## joeno (26 February 2021)

investtrader said:


> The ASX has largely missed the huge 13 year bull  market with total index price return of about 120% over this time, with 3 bear markets in between. It doesn't feel like 2000 where everything was going up, that's for sure.
> The US is a totally different story. The S&P 500 returned 600%+ and Nasdaq 1,300%+!!!!!!
> It seems obvious that something will crack in the US markets at some point. Then there may be a once in 15 year opportunity. I think maybe futures will be the way to profit unless it short and really sharp like this year and then it is hard for us mortals.
> 
> Note : these are monthly charts. Nasdaq is gong parabolic. I didn't post Russell but it is worse.



 That 15 year opportunity might turn out to be a 15 year bag hold like what happened to the Japanese markets.

The point being everyone seems to know it's overpriced. But to not "time" it because 5 years ago people were saying stocks were overpriced. It's capitulation to the markets which is the right move. However wrong stocks (imo) with bad fundamentals.

Everyone and their mother now is saying "if the market drops like in March then I'm all in!". 

So i can almost guarantee it will not be another case of a 30% market wide drop then V-shaped recovery. We could keep going up. Trade sideways. Or a painful see-saw drop down over years to reflect economic realities.


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## Value Collector (26 February 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> I value your opinion, And yes and I stated previously I wont debate inflation/ mom policy - you could create another topic.
> Also I don't want to plant seeds of doubt in young traders that the market will collapse.
> I simply putting my personal opinion that I'm moving from bullish to neutral at this point at time.
> I could be completely wrong and miss another 10 year bull run.
> Tho being that I day trade as a profession and have a family and property and business loans to pay, I'm still in the every day market and just lowering my leverage in a overall position at thus point of time.




If you want to learn a bit more about the Federal reserve, this is a good university lecture by the chairman of the fed at the time.


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## Value Collector (26 February 2021)

joeno said:


> The point being everyone seems to know it's overpriced.




The trouble is "over priced" compared to what, Bond and cash yields are so low that what is traditional considered "over priced" probably now represents good relative value, compared to the returns of the alternative defence assets you might want to run to.

If something is throwing of 5% yields (including franking) and it has a natural inflation hedge, it if far better than a 0.70% cash yield that gets taxed and has the capital base eaten by inflation.

If cash yields start to rise then maybe todays share prices will start to look more expensive, but if thats 5 years down the road then 5 years worth of higher returns and inflation protection will offset any loss from a return to mean.


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## moXJO (27 February 2021)

Craton said:


> A little research led me the businessinsider.com.au re. Burry's predication.
> His Twitter account.
> More on Burry's thoughts on how BTC and Gold could be squashed by govts due to inflation



He deletes his twitter weekly sometimes. It's back up as of now with one post again. I think it's archived though.


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## joeno (27 February 2021)

Value Collector said:


> The trouble is "over priced" compared to what, Bond and cash yields are so low that what is traditional considered "over priced" probably now represents good relative value, compared to the returns of the alternative defence assets you might want to run to.




Yep i agree there is no viable alternatives. Hence I'm steadily buying and not selling.

I actually think the Aus market is priced ok. March last year was a brilliant time to buy in hindsight as the ASX was sent back to 2012 levels. Currently it's lower than 2007 levels but still somewhat bubbly imo.

It's' more the US stocks (and specifically NASDAQ) which are overvalued. Sure returns are better than bond / savings. But stoically the world prob doesn't work so simplistically that when markets fall and jobs are lost the central banking can just money print, throw it at people and buy equity to keep everything rosy. There's no free lunch. Equities go up, inflation goes up. Want inflation down? Well now got to export that inflation elsewhere. The international establishment heavily screws people until there's either no one left to screw or the screwed rise up against the system (latter being more likely).

I don't know if we're in for a correction or not but it's worth being careful. We're in uncharted territory in terms of interventionist policies. Everything looks good but that might be because nobody's figured what the cracks are. And when the cracks do reveal itself we could be in for at least a scenario like 2008 where the stock markets have a really hard time recovering for a long time. Or worse. I get a lot of thoughts in my head when everyone's saying "we're going to be shooting up until at least 203X" and pinpointing parts of the last century and saying "that's us" like we're guaranteed to go up no matter what.


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## Smurf1976 (5 March 2021)

Individual incidents are of themselves usually meaningless but in view of recent action in the credit markets and speculation of a looming market top this one may well be a relevant data point.









						Aussie billionaire’s empire facing collapse
					

A Bundaberg farmer-turned globetrotting billionaire is this week staring down the collapse of his financial empire – and thousands of Australian jobs could hang in the balance.




					www.news.com.au
				






> investment bank Credit Suisse on Monday froze billions of dollars of funding, kicking off an explosive chain of events that has rocked the financial industry.
> 
> Greensill Capital is now preparing to file for insolvency




And more concerning:



> The _Financial Times_ further reported on Wednesday that BaFin, the German regulator, had filed a criminal complaint against Greensill Bank’s management for alleged balance sheet manipulation




One thing that usually emerges at a market top is the exposure of some sort of serious fraud.

That said - I'm still in the market but I'm paying close attention definitely.


----------



## tech/a (5 March 2021)

Have only 2 positions with trailing stops that are likely to be taken out today


----------



## Dark1975 (5 March 2021)

It's going to be brutal on the xao today,
Going on the dow / nasdaq, At least the dates have a sense of irony 😏 like a fire station burning down.

March 9th 2020, March 15th 2009 I remember that day bought CBA @ $20.03 ,
What will this march bring ? 🤔 not a good month in my book


----------



## Dark1975 (5 March 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> It's going to be brutal on the xao today,
> Going on the dow / nasdaq, At least the dates have a sense of irony 😏 like a fire station burning down.
> 
> March 9th 2020, March 15th 2009 I remember that day bought CBA @ $20.03 ,
> What will this march bring ? 🤔 not a good month in my book



Will add as last post depicted a crash, diffently want to clarify this is in my opinion just a correction taking place atm, Actually thinking to buy this afternoon if price entry of some look oversold.
Tho will state the this toppy scenario could be the start of something bigger underlying which make take place in the next couple of months?


----------



## Value Collector (5 March 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> What will this march bring ? 🤔 not a good month in my book




I think you are being a bit superstitious there my friend if you look at the facts March has historically been a good month.

Firstly, you mentioned March 2009 as being bad, but the market ended March 2009 higher than it started, how is that bad?

The Market also went up in march in 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019.

So most years the market has ended March higher than it started, of course there have been crashes in march, they happen in every month at some point.

I am not making a prediction about this march, because I am not superstitious, just pointing out that march is historically good, so any thoughts you are having about it being bad might just be negative bias, In my opinion short term movements are somewhat random.


----------



## frugal.rock (5 March 2021)

I can see threads like this can sway opinions, and if that is part of the intention of the thread, I don't know what to say. (Well, I do, but I am going to bite my tongue)

An active push to benefit a few at the expense of most?

I am 100% invested, except for the 20% account which doesn't ever see the light of day....
How do you like them apples?
It only takes one bad apple.

Doom and gloom.
The end is is near.


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2021)

I am gloomy but here on my pure systems side , so absolutely objective and not mood influenced,  that part of investment made of 6 different systems, inc some going up during downmarket phase,  is now 65% cash.yeap...
DYOR


----------



## Beaches (5 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I can see threads like this can sway opinions, and if that is part of the intention of the thread, I don't know what to say. (Well, I do, but I am going to bite my tongue)
> 
> An active push to benefit a few at the expense of most?
> 
> ...



That seems like a harsh assessment.

Perma bulls are just as dangerous as perma bears and both are wrong.

The market often has corrections and there is nothing wrong will calling it such. This is clearly a correction, the only thing in any doubt is the size of it. It may finish in a day or two or linger a bit longer.

That's not to say that indvilual stocks wont still go up .. it just gets harder to find the winners. Basically the risk/ reward profile of being long only is not as good

Many experienced traders will either:
1 Reduce holdings
2 Hedge existing holdings, or
3 Trade short

They are valid strategies. If they are wrong on the correction, they miss some profit and wade back into the market with the same capital.
If they are right, they go back into the market with more capital than if they had of held and taken the draw down.

Just wishing the market higher or lower is never a valid strategy. You have to trade what you actually see and not what you want to see.

Edit:
There is nothing wrong with trading through a minor correction, you just need to make sure you actually know what you are doing and not just blindly trading because it has worked before while the market was running.


----------



## Dark1975 (5 March 2021)

Value Collector said:


> I think you are being a bit superstitious there my friend if you look at the facts March has historically been a good month.
> 
> Firstly, you mentioned March 2009 as being bad, but the market ended March 2009 higher than it started, how is that bad?
> 
> ...



Actually I was trading heavily at that time, and actually show a attachment of trades,
And I don't need to look up charts on revenant dates, Cause I was trading and remember from 20th Jan 2009 through to March 7th was the most volatile time in trading see attachments.
The lowest point was actually 6th March 2009 the asx was 3111.7 lowest point ..see attachment.
And yes if it was the lowest point you would expect a good rebound at the end of the month.
I guess if you are looking up charts from the past, it would show that march performed well, though expected off its lowest point a massive rebound.
I guess my point is, traders actually trading live remember march as the lows and the best entry point,
People that weren't trading in 2009 ? Looking up charts would see a different perspective.
I've attached some chess holdings to show that I was trading and don't need to look up historical charts to know the past 😏


----------



## Value Collector (5 March 2021)

Beaches said:


> That seems like a harsh assessment.
> 
> Perma bulls are just as dangerous as perma bears and both are wrong.
> 
> ...




There is also nothing wrong with just holding through a correction.

I mean a lot of people focus far to much on the market price of the assets they own, and whether these market prices will be higher or lower next week or next month, and hence feel the need to trade.

In your example of the trader that gets out of the market with $X amount of capital and then wades back in with $X, you make it seem like he hasn’t lost anything because he has the same amount of capital.

to me that is kind of non sensical, I mean let’s say I owned 10% of a pizza shop and I sold it for $100,000 and then later re-bought 8% of that pizza shop for $100,000.

You are saying that I should feel comfortable that my $100,000 capital is still intact, even though my ownership of the pizza shop has reduced by 20%, and I have lost real world value.

I know many people look at it the way you do, but to me that is incorrect thinking, I focus on what I actually own rather than it’s market price, sure I am happy if market prices rise to reflect the underlying value, but I don’t get upset if market prices drift below what I know is the true value.

I am happy owning quality assets throughout market price cycles, sure as I explained earlier in this thread it’s possible to trade and increase your real world stake, but as you noted some times that doesn’t play out, and you take a real world loss even though the numbers on paper mask your loss.


----------



## Value Collector (5 March 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> Actually I was trading heavily at that time, and actually show a attachment of trades,
> And I don't need to look up charts on revenant dates, Cause I was trading and remember from 20th Jan 2009 through to March 7th was the most volatile time in trading see attachments.
> The lowest point was actually 6th March 2009 the asx was 3111.7 lowest point ..see attachment.
> And yes if it was the lowest point you would expect a good rebound at the end of the month.
> ...



The market was higher on the 31st of March than it was on the 1st, in my book that’s a good month.

what ever volatility happened in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements.

I have been investing since 1996, so I owned shares through March 2009, I can’t remember whether I bought or sold during that month, I can’t even remember anything memorable happening.

What ever fluctuations chilled you to the bone enough to make you still fear “March” 12 years later didn’t seem to impact me at all.


----------



## Dark1975 (5 March 2021)

Value Collector said:


> The market was higher on the 31st of March than it was on the 1st, in my book that’s a good month.
> 
> what ever volatility happened in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements.
> 
> ...



Quote " What ever volatility in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements"

How is buying in the lows irrelevant ? Or trading different strategies irrelevant ?
Are you basically saying that every strategy is irrelevant unless they are there following your philosophy of just buying and holding  during cycle movements? 
I don't claim to have the best trading strategy , tho i won't comment on your long term holding (typically SMSF strat) and say it's irrelevant,
Etiquette is important and respect different trading strategies. 

Quote " What ever fluctuations chilled you to the bone enough to make you still fear the market " ?
I didn't say that volatile fluctuation scares me ? I don't know how you came to that conclusion. In fact it's quite the opposite as a strategy to
be aware of the correction taking place and leverage down and buy larger volumes at correction points. Simple buy low / sell high.
In my last post was just mentioning the irony of the low points that have happened in march,


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I can see threads like this can sway opinions, and if that is part of the intention of the thread, I don't know what to say. (Well, I do, but I am going to bite my tongue)
> 
> An active push to benefit a few at the expense of most?



The whole point of a discussion forum is to discuss things.

If a potential market top or bottom can't be discussed on a stock market forum well that would be a pretty major gap in what's being discussed given that many investors would have at least part of their money invested in index funds or other assets which in practice follow the index reasonably closely.


----------



## tech/a (5 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> tech/a said:
> 
> 
> > Have only 2 positions with trailing stops that are likely to be taken out today
> ...


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The whole point of a discussion forum is to discuss things.
> 
> If a potential market top or bottom can't be discussed on a stock market forum well that would be a pretty major gap in what's being discussed given that many investors would have at least part of their money invested in index funds or other assets which in practice follow the index reasonably closely.



I would also say that i would be very happy if a few posts on asf could influence the overall market, but i am not that megalomaniac. The market does not care less what dark,frog or frugal think😁


----------



## Value Collector (5 March 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> Quote " What ever volatility in between is irrelevant unless you let your self get swept up in the movements"
> 
> How is buying in the lows irrelevant ? Or trading different strategies irrelevant ?
> Are you basically saying that every strategy is irrelevant unless they are there following your philosophy of just buying and holding  during cycle movements?
> ...



Your post about March being a Bad month gave me the impression you thought a fall was bad,  not that you were hoping to buy at a low point.

mid you are in the market to Buy shares, wouldn’t have you have said something like “March is usually a good month to buy” obviously if you are using terms like “March is a bad month” it means you are expecting March to do something bad not something good.

Either way, I was just pointing out that March has been up more often than it’s down, which is not what an uninformed reader would have taken from your post.


----------



## frugal.rock (5 March 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I would also say that i would be very happy if a few posts on asf could influence the overall market, but i am not that megalomaniac. The market does not care less what dark,frog or frugal think😁



Yeah, I know, it's just a very "looming" thread title. 

looming
adjective

 something unwanted or unpleasant) about to happen soon and causing worry:
the looming crisis
From the Cambridge dictionary.

I am entitled to get out of the wrong side of the bed like a bear with a sore head....BULL....
make that a BULL with a sore head


----------



## Craton (5 March 2021)

So if the top of the market is looming what is the big money doing, accum or dist?
Answering my own question led me this indicator.

Looks like I've work to do, unless someone has charts they'd like share.


----------



## joeno (6 March 2021)

Well as i suspected... 2nd tier growth stocks (esp in US tech) are getting slaughtered. Some dropping 50% in a matter of days. E.g. Virgin Galactic.

Paradigms shift. New industries replace older ones. But no such thing as a free lunch. Valuations do matter eventually. Don't listen to sweet-talkers who ask you to take a leap of faith at prices 5x the price they bought in.

The 2 major snake oil salesmen currently is Cathie Woods and Chamanth Palihapitiya.

For those of you who don't know Cathie invests the $billions in her fund based on "what God asked her to" (LOL). Chamanth is the one who bought a whole bunch of speculative garbage like SPCE and went on CNBC telling people to buy his favored stocks at 5x the price he bought in. These days he's dumping his shares and saying he's "re-investing the money into the fighting climate change" (LOL). Nobody can see through that excuse.








						Virgin Galactic drops 10% after chairman Chamath Palihapitiya dumps his $213 million personal stake
					

Virgin Galactic Chairman Chamath Palihapitiya sold his remaining personal stake in the space tourism company earlier this week.




					www.cnbc.com
				




Absolute dirty market manipulating scumbags. They should both be locked up for life imo for misleading 10s of thousands of investors. But hey wishful thinking as business people like them never do.


----------



## frugal.rock (6 March 2021)

joeno said:


> Absolute dirty market manipulating scumbags.




On a lighter note...
It's looking like Monday should have mostly a good start going by US last night and ASX 200 futures closing up nearly 1%


----------



## qldfrog (6 March 2021)

Yes, not out of the wood yet:
Nice channel down if you want to read it that way so down again by tuesday?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Yes, not out of the wood yet:


----------



## Dark1975 (7 March 2021)

So as expected, Senate passed stimulas 6hrs ago ,
Good short term trade for myself as I bought in Thursday / Friday 
Expect the euphoria ( last sugar hit ) to flow green days on the Dow and Xao Monday /Tuesday altho markets have some what factored this in.
Tho the last piece of the puzzle for me,
Will this be our last surge ?
Will the Fed buy a new printer 🖨  ?😋
The printer will be going brrrrrrr


----------



## againsthegrain (7 March 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> So as expected, Senate passed stimulas 6hrs ago ,
> Good short term trade for myself as I bought in Thursday / Friday
> Expect the euphoria ( last sugar hit ) to flow green days on the Dow and Xao Monday /Tuesday altho markets have some what factored this in.
> Tho the last piece of the puzzle for me,
> ...




If there is a ink shortage a new printer might not help


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## Dark1975 (7 March 2021)

Just keep printing , its all good 👍
 Usd looks good 😉
some humour gif required


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## Smurf1976 (7 March 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> Will this be our last surge ?



It plausibly will get the market to the big round number (4000) for the S&P500.

What happens at that point will be telling in my view - I'm expecting a lot of profit taking once it's hit but time will tell, probably in the near future.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> It plausibly will get the market to the big round number (4000) for the S&P500.
> 
> What happens at that point will be telling in my view - I'm expecting a lot of profit taking once it's hit but time will tell, probably in the near future.




Who wants to be last out of the door ?

IMV dramatic flash falls are far more likely to happen than some general easing.


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## Dark1975 (27 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> It plausibly will get the market to the big round number (4000) for the S&P500.
> 
> What happens at that point will be telling in my view - I'm expecting a lot of profit taking once it's hit but time will tell, probably in the near future.



Sorry for the late reply 
I didn't even see the post sorry 😐 
I like to miss a few days out of the forums as judgement can get clouded by other views,
I find stepping back for a couple days at a time gives me a clear perspective. 

But in regards to your question?
I still feel the same about way that we have now clear indicators that we gave approached the top of the markets.
If you look @ spacs / tesla and bitcoin there is massive one day drops followed by recovery,
Volality is high, 
Look at btc for e.g it dropped 10% in 6hrs on Thursday morning trade and now slowly recovering,
Looking at Tesla for e.g is the same scenario,
The stocks that made the largest gains in the bull run will be the lead indicators of a down turn in the market.
Is this the last surge ? I wish i had a crystal ball
Tho my personal view is that there will be a few more last pushes before confidence/euphoria eroad away.

So my own view is that the bull run has now finished and we will start in a new downtrend accending over 2- 3 months until the Fed/IMf step in.

But  good time for swing trading / day trading As high volatility during trade is easy chops.

Pls note : this is not financial advice, Pls DYOR


----------



## SirRumpole (22 April 2021)

Everything is so expensive at the moment.

Shares, property , commodities are all at record levels.

Question is , what is cheap now but likely to be expensive later ?

Any ideas ?


----------



## basilio (22 April 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Everything is so expensive at the moment.
> 
> Shares, property , commodities are all at record levels.
> 
> ...




No debt ? own house ? 

I have to say with COVID still trashing its way through Europe India and many other countries and exceptionally dangerous politicial situations around Russia and China the "strength" of stock markets seems like a mirage.

On a bigger picture  I also fear that markets are on a hair trigger. In effect AI systems are ready to sell down in a blink if the situation turns south and there simply won't be the opportunity to take profits and go. 

Just my opinion..


----------



## over9k (22 April 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Everything is so expensive at the moment.
> 
> Shares, property , commodities are all at record levels.
> 
> ...



80ish years after a baby boom, you have a death boom


----------



## SirRumpole (22 April 2021)

over9k said:


> 80ish years after a baby boom, you have a death boom




Funeral homes eh ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 April 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Funeral homes eh ?



Aldi sell cardboard coffins. 

If Covid gets worse it will be "Bring out yer dead" time again.

Funeral homes are not on my buy list.

We are just about to hit peak boomer cark so it's all downhill for nursing homes, funeral parlours and ..... boomers.

gg


----------



## bsnews (22 April 2021)

over9k said:


> 80ish years after a baby boom, you have a death boom



The funeral sector has became very competitive with the smaller players able to play well against the larger well established business.

Gold and silver still look the best of the best ATM in my humble opinion.


----------



## over9k (22 April 2021)

Jokes aside, WGO and THO were absolutely screaming before the pandemic as 60 years after a baby boom you have a caravan et al boom.

They're still up, but it'll be interesting to see how much time has been robbed from that particular market. Same actually goes for healthcare/drug companies.


----------



## pozindustrial (22 April 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Everything is so expensive at the moment.
> 
> Shares, property , commodities are all at record levels.
> 
> ...



I am a relative newbie TBH, but I have a plan.
By looking at the US market overnight, if there is a crash there we will most likely get it the next day like last Tuesday. If you keep cash available you can invest in BBOZ at the start of the market opening and make a killing as it heads south. Sell out again at the end and buy all the stocks that have become cheap.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 April 2021)

over9k said:


> Jokes aside, WGO and THO were absolutely screaming before the pandemic as 60 years after a baby boom you have a caravan et al boom.
> 
> They're still up, but it'll be interesting to see how much time has been robbed from that particular market. Same actually goes for healthcare/drug companies.



The oldest boomers are now 75 and the youngest 57 on most estimates. Peak boomer approaches and a few more pandemics may involve the young sacrificing the elderly to the inevitability of death.

Of note is the indifference of many youth worldwide to follow Covid directions which is their choice and one which I don't necessarily wish to argue. 

I believe the spend by boomers is over-estimated in its duration as many of the later boomers were caught by government measures to "make them pay for their keep" by super and pension crackdowns. Many of the older ones avoided this, but they will die sooner. 

I have met many of our city Aussie RV boomers in North and Western Queensland and the NT and they are not big spenders and owe much of their wealth to over inflated house prices. So on paper wealthy, spendthrift by nature or necessity.

Like much we take for granted as panning out in the future, boomers are not a golden egg and will just fizzle out as have all previous generations. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 April 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> I am a relative newbie TBH, but I have a plan.
> By looking at the US market overnight, if there is a crash there we will most likely get it the next day like last Tuesday. If you keep cash available you can invest in BBOZ at the start of the market opening and make a killing as it heads south. Sell out again at the end and buy all the stocks that have become cheap.



It sounds like a plan but may cost you the lot if the market swings back suddenly as it often does. 

BBOZ is not a security with which I am familiar but on a cursory glance it will not guarantee you a profit in your scenario.

gg


----------



## pozindustrial (22 April 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It sounds like a plan but may cost you the lot if the market swings back suddenly as it often does.
> 
> BBOZ is not a security with which I am familiar but on a cursory glance it will not guarantee you a profit in your scenario.
> 
> gg



Great to hear an opinion thanks. I have tested it and broken even because of not watching it as you said. It is a work in progress and I am willing to wait for the strong downturns whenI believe it will be hard to beat. It is not for smaller fluctuations just for when the US dives the night before.


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## over9k (22 April 2021)

Yes AU follows USA quite closely. U.S futures are good to eyeball late in the afternoon if you're thinking about selling off on a cheeky day trade


----------



## sptrawler (22 April 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Aldi sell cardboard coffins.
> 
> If Covid gets worse it will be "Bring out yer dead" time again.
> 
> ...



So obviously when the kids inherit, it is boom time for flight center, ahg automotive, jb hifi, hardly normal, netflicks, bws, dan murphys and dominos pizza.lol


----------



## qldfrog (23 April 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Great to hear an opinion thanks. I have tested it and broken even because of not watching it as you said. It is a work in progress and I am willing to wait for the strong downturns whenI believe it will be hard to beat. It is not for smaller fluctuations just for when the US dives the night before.



You will find that bboz price at open will already factor the increase.so it will work only if the us market is falling on more than 1d. you can build something based on this,but not that simple


----------



## qldfrog (23 April 2021)

Back to the top of the market:
Biden's tax policy leak includes some major hikes on CGT
_For $1 million earners in high-tax states, rates on capital gains could be above 50%. For New Yorkers, the combined state and federal capital gains rate could be as high as 52.22%. For Californians, it could be 56.7%._
So a very logical fall in the market, suprisingly the russell 2000 was still positive amid a sea of red..
Maybe a surge in stocks providing nappies,emergency shelter tents and food rations companies.
I welcome our fellow americans to the new green and universal socialism.enjoy😊


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## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Yes AU follows USA quite closely. U.S futures are good to eyeball late in the afternoon if you're thinking about selling off on a cheeky day trade



It appears that the USA market follows ours! I am no expert with graphs, but an overlay of S&P500 on our XJO asx200 seemed to strongly indicate over the last 12 mths that they follow us rather than we follow them on a roughly day to day basis. Could this be true? I may have been looking at this the wrong way.


----------



## over9k (1 May 2021)

no lol


----------



## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

over9k said:


> no lol



Cheers, but it is not definite looking at the charts. Hard to actually work it out looking at day to day data around crashes, rather than a trend and taking into consideration that we are about 12hrs ahead. A fool's errand perhaps, too many factors involved.


----------



## greggles (1 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> It appears that the USA market follows ours! I am no expert with graphs, but an overlay of S&P500 on our XJO asx200 seemed to strongly indicate over the last 12 mths that they follow us rather than we follow them on a roughly day to day basis. Could this be true? I may have been looking at this the wrong way.




The US GDP is $21.5 trillion USD, while Australia's is $1.4 trillion USD, so their economy is more than 15 times larger than ours.  The global influence of the US economy is therefore much greater than ours and is the reason why our market follows theirs, rather than the other way around.


----------



## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

greggles said:


> The US GDP is $21.5 trillion USD, while Australia's is $1.4 trillion USD, so their economy is more than 15 times larger than ours.  The global influence of the US economy is therefore much greater than ours and is the reason why our market follows theirs, rather than the other way around.



Sure, good point, and their population used to be 14+ times Australia. I still export my tools there, have visited several times and I agree that when they sneeze we catch a cold. I am a sharemarket newbie trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses via bboz shares and my mission is to find a signal, but I think that is impossible. However, I still want to get an idea of patterns eg. how long the market takes in decline etc.


----------



## debtfree (1 May 2021)




----------



## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

debtfree said:


> View attachment 123630



Thanks for that graph. I have been comparing our ASX 200 XJO with the S&P500 on a day by day basis. Nowhere near finished. Particularly in the month of 2008 crash and the month of the March 2020 crash looking for signals such as who dropped first, them or us knowing we are ahead of them. I am trying to compare our graphs of XJO to see if they line up with the US graphs of XJO in case the US ones are a day out of sync or if they are actual dates which is far more likely. My problem is I am using free graphs and it has not been easy to work out that comparison yet. Can't work on it all day, but I will get back to it.


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## over9k (1 May 2021)

You sound very young poz. 

There's an old saying "When america sneezes, the world catches a cold". 

The 'states IS the world's financial centre, and the safe haven, and the most powerful country in the world etc etc. Not to say there aren't some exceptions/anomalies out there, but broadly speaking, the world follows the USA.


----------



## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

over9k said:


> You sound very young poz.
> 
> There's an old saying "When america sneezes, the world catches a cold".
> 
> The 'states IS the world's financial centre, and the safe haven, and the most powerful country in the world etc etc. Not to say there aren't some exceptions/anomalies out there, but broadly speaking, the world follows the USA.



Yeah, I mentioned that saying four posts up. I believe I have 30 more productive years left, I will be 100 then! By the way over9K, I enjoy your posts.


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## over9k (1 May 2021)

Ah yes I see you're a newbie. Same thing, so to speak.

This is america's world, we just live in it.


If you're just starting out on charting, I wrote up a handy beginners' guide you can find here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...reading-101-for-beginners.36157/#post-1115847


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## over9k (1 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Sure, good point, and their population used to be 14+ times Australia. I still export my tools there, have visited several times and I agree that when they sneeze we catch a cold. I am a sharemarket newbie trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses via bboz shares and my mission is to find a signal, but I think that is impossible. However, I still want to get an idea of patterns eg. how long the market takes in decline etc.



Ok @pozindustrial  I just had a re-read of things and now I can see what you're trying to do. Just to clarify, you want to enter with BBOZ, which is a bet AGAINST the market, but you're trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses?

Are you trying to time a bet _against_ the market?


----------



## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Ok @pozindustrial  I just had a re-read of things and now I can see what you're trying to do. Just to clarify, you want to enter with BBOZ, which is a bet AGAINST the market, but you're trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses?
> 
> Are you trying to time a bet _against_ the market?



I guess so. If I buy bboz now and the market rallies again I lose a lot quickly so I am investigating past daily movements before other crashes to see if there is a cue from overnight us market movements before the big slide. My ideal is to cover most of the slide and of course get in as early as possible.
Betting against the market requires balls a few sizes bigger than mine so I am looking for ways to enter once it begins.


----------



## over9k (2 May 2021)

That's assuming it begins though...


----------



## pozindustrial (2 May 2021)

Yes, I have made that 'market bust' assumption based on many signs. I first got interested in stocks after the 1984/5 (from memory) times of a sharp recession followed by a boom and a bust in 1987. I read some great objective tutorials in the 1990s about investing in general which of course covered property, collectibles, futures, options, stocks, value investing, bonds, booms and busts including what happened during the 1990s after 1987 so it was very current showing strategies over a boom/bust period which demystified investing. The missing part was the zero interest rates scenario. I did some basic trading, using the Rivkin Report for guidance and tips, then got out and just kept an interest. Now I want to increase my super assets so I can retire more comfortably in a few years so I am looking for the fastest way to do that with an acceptable level of safety (for me).

The signs of a bust I see are:
Things are way off balance. P/E ratios are off the scale, there is 'fashionable' investing and talk of easy money on the streets, the markets have continued to rise at an accelerated pace during bad economic times, fortunes have been publicized with tech stocks that lack fundamentals, historically busts follow booms (like night follows day) and this boom has gone on way too long. There are whackos talking doom and gloom all over the internet competing with their opposite numbers spruiking fortune, but there are some very respectable people issuing warnings with good fundamental reasons and I believe them. In my opinion it is all coming together and the longer it goes on or the higher the market rises the bigger the fall will be. That is simply the law of nature or balance. To me a bust is correctly predicted, but nobody can predict the timing accurately. I regard the present as 'High Fire Danger' times, that is my gut feeling.

There are many stories of investors who cashed out before a bust and did exceptionally well investing after and I aspire to be one of those even though my assets are modest. I have changed my industry super funds to cash as well after seeing negative returns for about three years after the 1987 crash. I can do without that this time around. It is cheap ($11) to change the investment strategy with an industry super fund, but as I build my SMSF I will use different strategies and this is my beginning.

I am not a seasoned trader so I cannot comfortably make money during these times and get out quickly like many of you guys. My chosen option is to sit in cash and wait, but with bboz I can make large profits when most are losing them during a crash and then pick up good stock with the winnings. I see that as my best chance to increase my assets quickly. It might be spectacular, or it might be subdued, but I do not believe I will lose over twelve months with this plan.

I just have to study patterns to give myself my best chance of moving at the correct time. I have to weigh this against the risk factors and try to work out the signs that tell me when and how to move.


----------



## basilio (2 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Yes, I have made that 'market bust' assumption based on many signs. I first got interested in stocks after the 1984/5 (from memory) times of a sharp recession followed by a boom and a bust in 1987. I read some great objective tutorials in the 1990s about investing in general which of course covered property, collectibles, futures, options, stocks, value investing, bonds, booms and busts including what happened during the 1990s after 1987 so it was very current showing strategies over a boom/bust period which demystified investing. The missing part was the zero interest rates scenario. I did some basic trading, using the Rivkin Report for guidance and tips, then got out and just kept an interest. Now I want to increase my super assets so I can retire more comfortably in a few years so I am looking for the fastest way to do that with an acceptable level of safety (for me).
> 
> The signs of a bust I see are:
> Things are way off balance. P/E ratios are off the scale, there is 'fashionable' investing and talk of easy money on the streets, the markets have continued to rise at an accelerated pace during bad economic times, fortunes have been publicized with tech stocks that lack fundamentals, historically busts follow booms (like night follows day) and this boom has gone on way too long. There are whackos talking doom and gloom all over the internet competing with their opposite numbers spruiking fortune, but there are some very respectable people issuing warnings with good fundamental reasons and I believe them. In my opinion it is all coming together and the longer it goes on or the higher the market rises the bigger the fall will be. That is simply the law of nature or balance. To me a bust is correctly predicted, but nobody can predict the timing accurately. I regard the present as 'High Fire Danger' times, that is my gut feeling.
> ...




Pretty comprehensive analaysis Poz. I too feel exceptionally uneasy about the "strength" of the current market. IMV far too many people swimming naked.

I suspect the triggers will be the economic fallout from COVID in India, Brazil and some other countries currently under seige. I suspect a collapse will be very, very quick. I think the widespread speculation in crypto currencies and the risk of most of them imploding is also underestimated.

I'm not saying this analysis says it all but the recognition that US business have some pretty big  exposures  is sobering.









						The Looming Bank Collapse
					

The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## pozindustrial (2 May 2021)

I think there are two ways to look at it. The first is to analyse data from many sources, but my brain is not good enough to do that and there are many streams of data to consider. The other way is to step back and look around with the knowledge that busts always follow booms and booms are usually frenzied just before they end as if there is no tomorrow. We are in that frenzy now but it could still continue for a year or so and that is how I look at it.

This is my personal view on the top-of-the-market.


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## moXJO (4 May 2021)

I'll give you the best money making advice that will make you rich ponz. 

Drop the bear attitude. 

You can have opinions, but trade what's in front of you from a neutral mind.

I think it will crash but I have a natural "bear mindset".
 I'm heavily on longs at the moment till I  get skittish.


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## Smurf1976 (5 May 2021)

moXJO said:


> You can have opinions, but trade what's in front of you from a neutral mind.



This x 1000.   

In any sort of business the value of contemplating what might happen is so that you can be ready to act. 

You know how to (for random examples) invest to profit from an oil price surge or a bear market because you've previously considered that they could occur and on that basis you investigated what you'd do in that situation. You are thus ready to act.

What you actually do though is follow what's actually happening.


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## Sean K (8 June 2021)

More stuff on Burry's current position here. A new movie may be in the works.


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## moXJO (9 June 2021)

kennas said:


> More stuff on Burry's current position here. A new movie may be in the works.




This guys twitter is schizophrenic. Regularly deletes all tweets.


----------



## Sean K (9 June 2021)

moXJO said:


> This guys twitter is schizophrenic. Regularly deletes all tweets.




I think he was told to by twatter because he was going to cause mass panic.


----------



## Value Collector (9 June 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Question is , what is cheap now but likely to be expensive later ?
> 
> Any ideas ?



Interest rates.


----------



## aus_trader (10 June 2021)

A lot of reading with this thread and started out very bearish but I guess it's not easy to predict when it will eventuate. So, although there is reasons to be cautious, I think it's good to have market exposure.

I am usually looking at themes within specific sectors or certain commodities or small to mid caps that has good growth potential. Themes and trends change, so it's good to be able to be nimble enough to roll with the punches.

or example Gold price has been appreciating lately (I am talking in weeks/months as I don't day trade), so currently getting some exposure to that via purchase of junior Gold mining stocks. Have bought two so far ALK, FFX which are discussed in some detail, therefore providing reasons for the purchase in the Speculative Stock Portfolio

There is no way to predict the market with a high degree of accuracy. Even if the prediction is correct, timing could be awful. So in my experience, it's good to be aware of macro themes developing and prepare accordingly but not to fall in love with either the Bull or the Bear too intimately, they can both hurt us.


----------



## Value Collector (10 June 2021)

aus_trader said:


> A lot of reading with this thread and started out very bearish but I guess it's not easy to predict when it will eventuate. So, although there is reasons to be cautious, I think it's good to have market exposure.
> 
> I am usually looking at themes within specific sectors or certain commodities or small to mid caps that has good growth potential. Themes and trends change, so it's good to be able to be nimble enough to roll with the punches.
> 
> ...




I am not Bearish so to speak, but I am at the stage where I am beginning to deleverage.

Eg. Over the last decade or so I have been pretty aggressive with put options and margin loans which has worked fantastically, however I am now reducing the size of my put option portfolio as they expire and using my investment portion of my dividends to reduce margin loan debt.

While I am not selling any of my investments, I am deleverging and building reserves so as to increase my capacity to take advantage of any correction that does happen in the future.


----------



## Dark1975 (19 June 2021)

So took a while for confirmation on the 24hr time frame, Though now i haven confirmation the bearish divergence has been noted from the RSI and the strong break down and close below the 50 day ma, 
From my perspective seeing large volume i can only assume that the institution has waited to move large volumes with out tanking the market through distribution .
I have moved now to 85 % to cash,
What i expect to happen,
Over the next 2- 4 weeks a  downtrend correction. Though greedy retail investors will come in to buy the dips and show a steady bounce back , over time this massive signal of a bearish divergence crossed with the close of the day below the 50ema - could now signal a change in market structure.
Inflation will continue to move higher and we the current fiscal policy of  printing endless money..sooner or later interest rates will need to lift to turn the tide....and we begin the the crash..
I think the tide has turned..enjoy the ride 
Pls note : this isn't financial advice pls DYOR


----------



## gartley (19 June 2021)

SPX has recently reached target zone for 40 week Nominal cycle for the projection generated July last year.


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## aus_trader (19 June 2021)

I can only see a top of a market after the bear has done his business... 💩  and we are well into the decline... 😧

But I've been reading this thread eagerly and if we can be at least a bit prepared to a looming market top, that's got to be a good thing.

You guys have provided good rationale and reasoning for your hypothesis... 

Unlike constantly preaching doom and gloom like what's his name, who basks in glory when it eventually happens after years or decades later...

So I am watching the ball , no it's not crystal, otherwise I won't be reading this thread


----------



## over9k (20 June 2021)

Even after the pounding of this week, SPXL & UDOW both up about 17%, TQQQ flat:




TQQQ looks like it's double-topped, the others are clearly still on a bull trend, albeit one that's been pounded over the last few days.


----------



## basilio (26 June 2021)

For those posters and punters who  follow property markets can I suggest taking a big short position on  funds that invest in Miami beachfront condos?

I reckon they are going to come down in a rush.

*The collapse of the condo a couple of days ago is going to expose every building on that foreshore to complete structural scrutiny.* The building insurers are going to want cast iron evidence that the building they are insuring isn't going to fall down next week. Likewise the banks that loan against any new purchasers. .

Objectively I can't see how scores of other building of a similar age  and construction aren't in a similar position. It's just that human nature being what it is no one wants to talk down their tower.









						Authorities scramble to find cause of Florida condo collapse. But there are some clues
					

Theories are emerging about how a Florida apartment building collapsed without warning in the dead of the night.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## over9k (26 June 2021)

Lots of new business for demolition and/or construction firms though


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## over9k (29 June 2021)

For anyone that cares about/uses the technicals.


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## greggles (29 June 2021)

Michael Burry has re-activated his Twitter account and has been tweeting again... and then deleting them shortly after. Here are a couple of the latest deleted tweets.

Needless to say, he's got very firm views about where all this irrational exuberance is going to end.


----------



## Dark1975 (11 July 2021)

Well the attachment speaks a thousand words 😏 liquid squeeze? Not looking good 😕


----------



## wabullfrog (11 July 2021)

On a local level I had thought of taking out a Maquarie CC as it offered similar benefits for a lower yearly fee compared to one I currently have. Note the highlighted in blue.


----------



## noirua (11 July 2021)

Many investors, depending on the domain invested in, will see quite different pictures of events.  The view of a boom continuing for sometime after the decline in countries in America and Europe looks set and may well continue until 2029 in line with what happened in America after the First World War and the roaring twenties - 1929 and maybe 2029 will be similar in the end.


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## gartley (11 July 2021)

noirua said:


> Many investors, depending on the domain invested in, will see quite different pictures of events.  The view of a boom continuing for sometime after the decline in countries in America and Europe looks set and may well continue until 2029 in line with what happened in America after the First World War and the roaring twenties - 1929 and maybe 2029 will be similar in the end.



The roaring 20's market was preceded by a sideways bear of 10 years.
Does the current juncture look to be the start of a new bull market or the tail end of the one that started in 2009?
As you say everyone has the 2c worth but whatever unfolds the next 10 years will be nothing like the last 10 years and I doubt a continuation of it as the best of this advance is probably already history...


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## noirua (12 July 2021)

gartley said:


> The roaring 20's market was preceded by a sideways bear of 10 years.
> Does the current juncture look to be the start of a new bull market or the tail end of the one that started in 2009?
> As you say everyone has the 2c worth but whatever unfolds the next 10 years will be nothing like the last 10 years and I doubt a continuation of it as the best of this advance is probably already history...



Maybe some of these quotes are worth considering when playing the guessing game. Plus making sure we always remember cash is king in the end: As never mind what it is including cryptocurrencies it is always related to cash in the end.  Being short of cash or negative must be avoided.

_"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."_ — George Soros

_"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over." — Warren Buffett

"The biggest risk of all is not taking one."_ — Mellody Hobson

_"The four most dangerous words in investing are, it’s different this time."_ — Sir John Templeton

_"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."_ — Warren Buffett

_"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself."_ — Peter Thiel

_"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets."_ — Peter Lynch


----------



## aus_trader (12 July 2021)

noirua said:


> Maybe some of these quotes are worth considering when playing the guessing game. Plus making sure we always remember cash is king in the end: As never mind what it is including cryptocurrencies it is always related to cash in the end.  Being short of cash or negative must be avoided.
> 
> _"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."_ — George Soros
> 
> ...



Won't try to guess the market direction, I am usually wrong. Would be nice if it keeps booming for the next decade.

But love those quotes by market legends.


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## gartley (12 July 2021)

Personally don't care which direction only diminishing volatility


----------



## gartley (12 July 2021)

Weekly chart of SPX, which have been oberving for weeks now.  Market looks to have reached an extreme of the cycles channel below (+ 3 standard deviations) of the % price excursions from nominal trend ( green line). Market moves from one extreme to another within the channel. If an extreme is not reached then trend usually persists.
Coupled with the Cycles based FT Swing indicator which is clearly showing that trend is running out of steam here...
Similar FT swing chart exhibited buy Bitcoin (lower chart) some months back. Although no idea how far a correction would carry if it starts I would not be surprised to ultimately see SPX 3200-3300.


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## gartley (12 July 2021)

Looking at commodities and specifically CRB Index of which Crude OIl is a big component. Has completed a textbook impulse and ending diagonal red wave 5.  USD looks to be continuing bullishly for now so a sharp correction will probably start soon in the CRB Index.
Other markets like the NASDAQ 100 also show close to having a completed impulse. Gonna be some wild months ahead imo and possibly the largest correction sonce March 2020


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## over9k (12 July 2021)

Whilst there's always going to be a new top eventually, there's quite a few positions that have bounced off their tops a few times now. The S&P traded in a beautiful range for quite a while last year and semiconductors are now doing the same thing: 




I trimmed a bit at 44.50 and am now kicking myself for not diving back in below the $40 mark.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 July 2021)

Dark1975 said:


> Well the attachment speaks a thousand words 😏 liquid squeeze? Not looking good 😕



Meanwhile in China:









						Does China know something the rest of the world doesn’t?
					

China’s change to its monetary policy has raised questions about just how concerned it is about its slowing economy.




					www.smh.com.au
				






> The government announced a 50 basis point reduction in its reserve requirement ratio, effective from this Thursday, which should add about 1 trillion yuan ($210 billion) of liquidity to its banking system.




Seems like an interesting coincidence with timing?


----------



## qldfrog (13 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Meanwhile in China:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Was reading the same.


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## gartley (17 July 2021)

Well SPX has almost reached upper trendline. What now? Long term Delta chart suggestes time is almost up and trend must change un
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
til down fo the rest of the year....


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## over9k (17 July 2021)

If the market does dump, I doubt it'll be for that reason. 

Currently, everyones' heads are spinning over the delta variant.


----------



## Gunnerguy (17 July 2021)

gartley said:


> Well SPX has almost reached upper trendline. What now? Long term Delta chart suggestes time is almost up and trend must change un
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How can anyone not look at the second chart and see that the market is probably 1,000 over valued ? I’m not a TA chart reader (anymore) however really, would anyone not be surprised if we had a 20%-25% drop ?
I’m certainly getting scared. I reduced my stock holdings on Monday and have 1 to 1.5 years in cash. ‘A bird in the hand’.
Yes I may be missing some growth, and realised some CGT, but happy to take some good gains off the table after the last 15 months (BTD last year) and maybe BTD if there is a, say 15% drop.
Not quite sleepless nights but a bit concerned now.

Gunnerguy.
(FOMO << BITH)


----------



## qldfrog (17 July 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> How can anyone not look at the second chart and see that the market is probably 1,000 over valued ? I’m not a TA chart reader (anymore) however really, would anyone not be surprised if we had a 20%-25% drop ?
> I’m certainly getting scared. I reduced my stock holdings on Monday and have 1 to 1.5 years in cash. ‘A bird in the hand’.
> Yes I may be missing some growth, and realised some CGT, but happy to take some good gains off the table after the last 15 months (BTD last year) and maybe BTD if there is a, say 15% drop.
> Not quite sleepless nights but a bit concerned now.
> ...



Bith?.. English as a foreign language....


----------



## gartley (17 July 2021)

over9k said:


> If the market does dump, I doubt it'll be for that reason.
> 
> Currently, everyones' heads are spinning over the delta variant.



Talking about timing, strange coincidence all these variants seemed to arrive just in time for worldwide vaccine rollouts....
As for markets dumping look at the chart above, some of the most critical market turns coincided with future cycle points that where generated from years back, namely cycle points 16, 8 are two of the best ones.....
That doesn't mean it will happen that way this time. But looking at a series of charts and methods can add a little weight. Completed 5 wave structures, cycles starting to roll over, price extremes within a channel.
Then most will say the that central banks (namely the trading desk at the FED) won't allow it. Maybe so, but they couldn't prevent the COVID dump last year either.


----------



## aus_trader (17 July 2021)

over9k said:


> If the market does dump, I doubt it'll be for that reason.
> 
> Currently, everyones' heads are spinning over the delta variant.



Delta could be the trigger, so we should tread carefully I guess.

I am going about things as normal, still researching companies and buying stocks since it's bull market until proven otherwise.

Just bought an asx stock that has the tailwind of a global trend taking place in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 July 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I am going about things as normal, still researching companies and buying stocks since it's bull market until proven otherwise.



Likewise.

I’m presently over 94% in stocks and 5% in USD but if circumstances change then I’ll be out, every share has a stop loss set.


----------



## aus_trader (17 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Likewise.
> 
> I’m presently over 94% in stocks and 5% in USD but if circumstances change then I’ll be out, every share has a stop loss set.



Great, the important thing is that you have that protection in place. Me too, except some long term holdings such as dividend paying TLS, AGL and those in _Medium_/Longer _Term_ Stock _Portfolio_ that I will hold through a downturn or sell at my own discretion due to change of market conditions.

I have a smaller % invested in the market at the moment as I have sold out of several stocks recently. But there is no reason to hold back on deploying those funds as opportunities arise in the market. Until all hell breaks loose...


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## over9k (17 July 2021)

I posted this over in the virus thread: 




I've noticed with a lot of trends in individual stocks as well as the market that when they break below trend they'll only resume it in a channel below it rather than above it. 

So previously it'd run above trend, then dip back down to kiss the trendline, then bounce back up again. 

After, it'll dump below trend, rebound UP to kiss the trendline, and then drop back down again:





I sold some at 128, it peaked at 133. Been really annoyed at myself for missing several big opportunities lately. Not flipping enough crypto dips, not selling enough NIO when it peaked, not rebuying back into soxl after timing the latest sell almost to the cent, not buying BTU when it dipped below $7, not rebuying back into HNRG when it dipped back down nearly 20% TWICE, so on and so on... 

If my ultra sophisticated trend analysis above is accurate, TQQQ is a rebuy at about the 113-114 mark.


----------



## qldfrog (17 July 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Great, the important thing is that you have that protection in place. Me too, except some long term holdings such as dividend paying TLS, AGL and those in _Medium_/Longer _Term_ Stock _Portfolio_ that I will hold through a downturn or sell at my own discretion due to change of market conditions.
> 
> I have a smaller % invested in the market at the moment as I have sold out of several stocks recently. But there is no reason to hold back on deploying those funds as opportunities arise in the market. Until all hell breaks loose...



I just noted that i am 50% cash with my systems, so not a decision made, just buy switched off by programs.
I do not want to do a conscious decision, otherwise i am too early to get out..and in


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Bith?.. English as a foreign language....



Bird in the hand

(worth two in the bush)


----------



## Gunnerguy (17 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Bith?.. English as a foreign language....



FOMO << BITH ....

The value of 'Fear of Missing Out' is significantly lower than 'Bird in the Hand'. Thus Happy to have some cash and not fear about missing a further possible rise .....

Gunnerguy


----------



## over9k (17 July 2021)

Ask the delta variant IMHO gunner. I'm 80% USD denominated so I'm significantly cushioned.


----------



## qldfrog (17 July 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> FOMO << BITH ....
> 
> The value of 'Fear of Missing Out' is significantly lower than 'Bird in the Hand'. Thus Happy to have some cash and not fear about missing a further possible rise .....
> 
> Gunnerguy



Bird in the hand ..thanks did not know the acronym


----------



## over9k (17 July 2021)

Here's your $64,000 question: 




Are markets going to continue cascading from here? They've dumped from their peak on the news, but are they going to consider it a storm in a teacup or lose their collective minds?


----------



## aus_trader (18 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Bird in the hand ..thanks did not know the acronym



Yeah man, I actually thought 'Bullet In The Head' before these guys explained it to us...


----------



## over9k (18 July 2021)

I'll repost this again:




And point out that even if you'd bought right at the end of sep or middle of feb or end of march, you'd still be deep in the green right now.

Honestly, even if things dump another 15% or so I'd just consider that yet another dip to buy. Australia's vaccine rollout might be abysmal and AU markets follow USA fairly strongly (about 0.75 correlation with the S&P last I checked) but USA's isn't.

In fact, if your holdings are in USD like mine, then we might very well see a relatively strong U.S market and a relatively shite AU one, which would bring strong exchange rate favourability as the AUD will tank. 

Food for thought.


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## gartley (20 July 2021)

Well the headlines say the market was "spooked" by the Delta variant. MSM as always looking for reasons to justify what the market did on any given day.
Only problem is:
Just like its predecessor 18 months ago, this coronavirus version was in the news *long before* the markets tumbled.
The warning signs where there....


----------



## aus_trader (20 July 2021)

Interesting to see XAO has recovered fast after a little sell off this morning. So looks like there is some local buying support to backstop any fear coming from Wall St...


----------



## frugal.rock (20 July 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Interesting to see XAO has recovered fast after a little sell off this morning. So looks like there is some local buying support to backstop any fear coming from Wall St...



Look into my crystal balls...

Market direction was clear before open, just had to get past last nights *FEAR*...🙀 and the panic dumping on open.


----------



## aus_trader (20 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Look into my crystal balls...
> 
> Market direction was clear before open, just had to get past last nights *FEAR*...🙀 and the panic dumping on open.
> 
> View attachment 127604



Nice crystal ball, better than a psychic !


----------



## qldfrog (20 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Look into my crystal balls...
> 
> Market direction was clear before open, just had to get past last nights *FEAR*...🙀 and the panic dumping on open.
> 
> View attachment 127604



I do not have much trust in the crystal ball..i usually look at the nyse future before open, and not sure i have seen such a good correlation between future and actual values at the end of the session...
Anyway, my systems do the decision and they are very cautious...
4 out of 6 100pc cash, 5th no buy mode, 6th is agressive and would trade in the middle of a hurricane 😁
But none of the 2 which can do it have engaged the bear mode...
For what these are worth..not much


----------



## divs4ever (20 July 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Yeah man, I actually thought 'Bullet In The Head' before these guys explained it to us...




 in this crazy mixed up current world  that makes sense too ( and it made laugh .. good one )


----------



## divs4ever (20 July 2021)

Bubbles, bubbles everywhere: Jeremy Grantham on the bust ahead









						Bubbles, bubbles everywhere: Jeremy Grantham on the bust ahead By Reuters
					

Bubbles, bubbles everywhere: Jeremy Grantham on the bust ahead




					www.investing.com
				




 but then somebody rushes onto the field and finds a new way to kick the can 

 what SHOULD happen and what does happen seem to be light years apart 

  i have SOME reserve cash , but have some juicy positions in some places ( up more than 400% )

 keep what i have  and try for a bargain or two looks like my best option 

 good luck everyone


----------



## over9k (20 July 2021)

@divs4ever I deployed my last remaining cash into BTU & SPCE at the open dip yesterday. SPCE is up 12%, BTU is up 7%, and the futures for all the indices are deep into the green.

You'll be fine


----------



## divs4ever (20 July 2021)

i have been in the share-market since 2011 ( actually very late 2010 ) and haven't been in a REAL crash yet ( March 2020  was more ' too many things to buy ' rather than panic , to me  )

 however i am now retired so can't afford a near total wipe-out 

 i would rather have a margin of safety  ( than not )

 cheers


----------



## aus_trader (21 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i have been in the share-market since 2011 ( actually very late 2010 ) and haven't been in a REAL crash yet ( March 2020  was more ' too many things to buy ' rather than panic , to me  )
> 
> however i am now retired so can't afford a near total wipe-out
> 
> ...



Yeah, having a bit of cash on the side is not a bad idea in that case.

Now to the markets.

So with the daily monitoring of the markets, Wall street has pretty much clawed back yesterday's losses:



We could have a few runs on the board when asx starts trading in the morning...


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## noirua (21 July 2021)




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## qldfrog (21 July 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Yeah, having a bit of cash on the side is not a bad idea in that case.
> 
> Now to the markets.
> 
> ...



Here we go again another market at the top and an economy growing less than the artifical injection of cash should be aka a depression hidden..
Happy the systems did not switch to bear...we should see big jumps today


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## over9k (21 July 2021)

Good morning, people who did not deploy all of their remaining cash yesterday. 



(You know I've gone & jinxed it now)


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## aus_trader (21 July 2021)

aus_trader said:


> We could have a few runs on the board when asx starts trading in the morning...





asx having a good day...


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## divs4ever (21 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Good morning, people who did not deploy all of their remaining cash yesterday.
> 
> 
> 
> (You know I've gone & jinxed it now)




 i still have some cash reserves despite trying to find better spots to deploy it  , i also hold at least 3 current take-over targets ( that i would rather not succeed  , i prefer offers with a scrip component )


 maybe i am too demanding but only bought a few EVN yesterday and a few RKN ( so far ) today 

 sigh just a test of patience  , i guess  ( more divs coming near the end of the month as well )


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## over9k (22 July 2021)

Told you it was a dip buying opportunity.


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## over9k (24 July 2021)

There we go, right back on trend. Total storm in a teacup.


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## divs4ever (24 July 2021)

will probably stay that way until the various forms of stimulus stop


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## Smurf1976 (5 August 2021)

I see that CommSec has announced on 3 August that limits on trades without a cash deposit will be reduced from 4 September 2021.



> Important changes to CommSec trading limits​
> 
> The limits on trades without a cash deposit are changing from 04 September 2021.
> 
> In light of recent market volatility, CommSec is changing trading limits to help protect our customers and minimise risk associated with investing and settlement.






> *What are the changes to trading limits?*
> 
> From Saturday, 04 September 2021, the trading limit will be reduced to $5,000 for leading stocks. Non-leading stocks will be reduced to $1,000. Our current list of leading stocks can be found here (non-leading stocks are any stocks not included on this list).




Details aside, I do see it as potentially of relevance that the country's largest broker (at least they claim to be) is tightening up on risk management (from their own perspective) at this point in time.

My thinking isn't so much about what they're doing, the idea of requiring that someone actually has the $ to pay for the stocks they're buying doesn't seen an unreasonable concept to me, but it's more about what triggered the decision? What information do they have or what conclusions have they come to which lead them to take this action?


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## qldfrog (5 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I see that CommSec has announced on 3 August that limits on trades without a cash deposit will be reduced from 4 September 2021.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



One of the advantagese of commsec is that you can have $0 cash left and put orders saying 
Sell $7k of BHP and buy $7k of CSL at open tomorrow morning.
Bell Direct does not allow this.
If this restriction is happening as i understand it, systems traders might be impacted.. Mr Skate? @Skate 
My solution is twisted: i have a small buffer and on big trading days, i have to be on the screens at open time, only pre order the buys from the start of the alphabet while waiting for the sell of the first batches to be completed and free the cash for the end of the alphabet buys...
A pain..i am not aware of these restrictions but could just have missed them


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## Smurf1976 (5 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> A pain..i am not aware of these restrictions but could just have missed them



The details are on the CommSec site so worth looking for those who need to know.

I haven't studied the detail but it does say something to the effect that shares you already own are counted. Worth reading it carefully for those who need to know.

What intrigues me more however is the "why now?" question.


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## KevinBB (5 August 2021)

I'm sure that this new restriction by CommSec is due to the need for cost savings by them, as I'm sure that removal of the forum was for the same reason.

As far as I am aware, no other retail broker allows trading unless funds are already in a cash account. CommSec, with the piddly little $5,000 for 10 stocks, and $1,000 for everything else, is still the exception to the rule.

KH


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## divs4ever (5 August 2021)

'Wealth of Experience' podcast - markets rinse and repeat
https://www.firstlinks.com.au/wealth-experience-podcast-s1-ep4
DYOR


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## divs4ever (5 August 2021)

an interesting decision by Commsec  

 brought in about the time i MIGHT have increased buying activity ( during a crash )

   but yes Bell Direct requires the cash in the holding account before you can place a buy order  but offsets that by a better brokerage structure  for buys over $1,000

and for really big buys i still have that account  for the full service broker ( at a straight percentage  system )

is Commsec preparing for the big meltdown ??


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## divs4ever (5 August 2021)

CommSec/Commonwealth Bank of Australia reserves the right to vary the above list of securities at any time without notice and at its total discretion. CommSec/Commonwealth Bank of Australia or any member of the Group does not make any recommendations (express or implied) about any securities listed above or give any guarantee as to the payment of income or repayment of capital. This list has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason any individual should, before acting on the information, consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek professional advice. CommSec/Commonwealth Bank of Australia do not accept any liability for losses resulting from a reliance on this information.


 and what an interesting list 

 in the event of a major meltdown  only BHP and MQG  MIGHT be targets of my buying spree  ( that appear on that list )

 looks like Bell Direct ( i hold BFG ) just got a free kick


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## basilio (20 August 2021)

And now for something completely different. 
Seth Myers  special insight into the Stock market.


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## The Triangle (27 December 2022)

joeno said:


> Well as i suspected... 2nd tier growth stocks (esp in US tech) are getting slaughtered. Some dropping 50% in a matter of days. E.g. Virgin Galactic.
> 
> Paradigms shift. New industries replace older ones. But no such thing as a free lunch. Valuations do matter eventually. Don't listen to sweet-talkers who ask you to take a leap of faith at prices 5x the price they bought in.
> 
> ...



Chamath Palihapitiya...   He pops up from time to time when I'm researching various investments.   He sells an almost perfect "American Dream" story: a son of immigrants who lived in poverty was abused as a child by an alcohol father and then made it big in Silicon Valley...  Surprised he's not been referenced here more often (probably a good thing).  In Australia we have those who always seem to make money off losing junior miners.  In the US they have those who always seem to make money off losing tech. 

To my knowledge (which is really Wikipedia's knowledge😬) he's been involved with 4 companies listing.  Virgin Galactic, Opendoor (online realestate), clover health (health insurance), and sofi (share trading/personal finance).  Chart below.    sofi is the only thing which has not completely collapsed, and sofi's loanbook...  I certainly wouldn't want to be investing in a company which has 90% of its loans listed as 'student' and 'personal' especially since most are assuming the US economy is going to struggle for the next 12 months (if not longer)


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## moXJO (27 December 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Chamath Palihapitiya...   He pops up from time to time when I'm researching various investments.   He sells an almost perfect "American Dream" story: a son of immigrants who lived in poverty was abused as a child by an alcohol father and then made it big in Silicon Valley...  Surprised he's not been referenced here more often (probably a good thing).  In Australia we have those who always seem to make money off losing junior miners.  In the US they have those who always seem to make money off losing tech.
> 
> To my knowledge (which is really Wikipedia's knowledge😬) he's been involved with 4 companies listing.  Virgin Galactic, Opendoor (online realestate), clover health (health insurance), and sofi (share trading/personal finance).  Chart below.    sofi is the only thing which has not completely collapsed, and sofi's loanbook...  I certainly wouldn't want to be investing in a company which has 90% of its loans listed as 'student' and 'personal' especially since most are assuming the US economy is going to struggle for the next 12 months (if not longer)
> 
> ...



I'm sure he invested in Tesla and sold at the heights last year. I watch a lot of his youtube stuff as he has some interesting insights.


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