# BNB gone, Macquarie next?



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2009)

It would not surprise me if MQG were to go the way of BNB. Their styles of investment were so similar. BNB was a gonnabe MQG. The price action on MQG is interesting, it appears to be moving up slightly but the volumes are pathetic and my guess is that the big players are feeding stock out. 

gg


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## cutz (14 March 2009)

G'Day GG

Are you just laying in on for the MQG die hards,

Seriously though, volume appears to be reverting back to the long term average, looking back over its downward period that’s when it had above average volumes (which it may be coming out of now).


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## sammy84 (14 March 2009)

Just what we needed, another MQG bashing thread. Different assets, different leverage, different exposure...there really arent that many similarities between BNB and MQG.


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## michael_selway (14 March 2009)

Good article below

*EPS & DPS Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 653.5 313.8 365.4 460.1 
DPS 345.0 220.0 204.2 247.6 *

http://business.smh.com.au/business/battered-n-bruised-20090227-8kbl.html?page=-1









> Battered 'n' bruised Feb 28, 2009
> 
> While no one is game enough to predict Macquarie's demise, the global economic downturn is forcing the group to rethink its famed business model, writes Lisa Murray.
> 
> ...


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2009)

cutz said:


> G'Day GG
> 
> Are you just laying in on for the MQG die hards,
> 
> Seriously though, volume appears to be reverting back to the long term average, looking back over its downward period that’s when it had above average volumes (which it may be coming out of now).




Mate I've been sus about MQG valuations for a long , long time. 

I enclose a chart to yesterday which has a gann fan superimposed on it. 

I won't go into gann. Ask trader paul or google gann fan.

If MQG is to recover it will need to convincingly move up out of its present downward trajectory.

I agree volume is important, however on 20/5/08 the volume was similar to yesterday. 

Only difference was it closed at above $65 not above $19 as it did yesterday.

Funds work on capital invested, not volume. 

Lets see how it goes on Monday. If the volume goes up and it dips below that gann line in the fan then its all bets off for a recovery.

gg


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## nikemi (14 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It would not surprise me if MQG were to go the way of BNB. Their styles of investment were so similar. BNB was a gonnabe MQG. The price action on MQG is interesting, it appears to be moving up slightly but the volumes are pathetic and my guess is that the big players are feeding stock out.
> 
> gg




However there is difference in 'history' and 'legend', just because someone tried unsuccessfully to copy their concept and failed does not mean that the original is going to fall as well. i am not saying their share price won't get punished further as many people equate MQG to BNB but also those that bother to do their research know that their so called business 'models' are fundamentally different. in other words appart from the fact that they were both clasified under the same class in ASX200 there is very little in common between the MQG and BNB. But then again very few people go on fundamental analysis in today's market it is all psychology and emotion....


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2009)

I have posted extensively on 

Allco Finance AFG
Babcock and Brown  BNB
Macquarie  MQB

I will bet London to a brick that the unsustainable model I have alluded to in previous posts will have its nadir shortly.

AFG is gone 
BNB is gone

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=254330#post254330

gg


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## white_goodman (15 March 2009)

so your saying dont take a grad role with them next year lol


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## prawn_86 (15 March 2009)

white_goodman said:


> so your saying dont take a grad role with them next year lol




Thats if they are even hiring grads this year... And if you can get in if they are...

I would still take a job with them just for the experience


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## Sean K (15 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Just what we needed, another MQG bashing thread. Different assets, different leverage, different exposure...there really arent that many similarities between BNB and MQG.



Really? Gee, I thought they were very similar. Can anyone else elaborate on this?


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## sammy84 (16 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Really? Gee, I thought they were very similar. Can anyone else elaborate on this?




Hi Kennas

Admittingly I don't bother myself to much with the company news of either. However at face value here are some of the noticable differences between MQG and BNB;

Macs quality of assets is first rate (e.g Thames water)
BNB asset purchases were more highley leveraged.
Their exposure is less as in the last few months MQG has around $2b using the government guarenteed bonds. From memory MQG have about 3b in excess of their minimum capital requirments
Mac's management is not to be underestimated. Their directors are some of the brightest in Aus. 
Most importantely, they are still producing a profit.


Note: I am a holder of MQG


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## Phillip (16 March 2009)

Only issue I have with MQG is their assets are not liquid enough. RIO is a company with liquid assets and they had issues fire-selling their assets. MQG debt covenance is problematic as highlighted in the CDS where their spreads have ballooned. Not really a stock I would be bashing nor promoting. I am really here nor there with MQG, just like many others I believe their business model is flawed in the 'delevereging' world.


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## skc (16 March 2009)

BNB only ever copied one part of MQG's business. BNB was nothing more than a specialist infrastructure financier / manager.

MQG on the other hand is a lot more. They have many more parts:
- A bank operation
- A brokerage business with margin lending
- An investment bank, active in corporate advisory, ECM, DCM, M&A, underwriting etc
- Probably others like project finance, PPP, structure finance, financial product development etc

I am not saying MQG is doing well, as pass-the-infrastructure-parcel was a significant part of their business. But a casual glance at MQG's website and last results will tell you quickly that MQG is like a supermarket to BNB's little cornor store.


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## shag (16 March 2009)

the guys in mac aus branch might be bright but they bought into the absolutely shonky blue chip disaster in nz, despite the mac nz guys telling them how bad it was.


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## vincent191 (16 March 2009)

I agree with those who say MQG is different from B&B. If you look at the MQG accounts you will see that it has a very diversified range of acitivities. 

I think MQG will survive this downturn, most of their problems are in their satellite funds. Their core "banking" business is still profitable. Their earnings will suffer but I think they will be around for a while.


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 March 2009)

vincent191 said:


> I agree with those who say MQG is different from B&B. If you look at the MQG accounts you will see that it has a very diversified range of acitivities.
> 
> I think MQG will survive this downturn, most of their problems are in their satellite funds. Their core "banking" business is still profitable. Their earnings will suffer but I think they will be around for a while.




They have still payed their executives more than their shareholders.

A chart.

gg


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## goldchopper (17 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> They have still payed their executives more than their shareholders.
> 
> A chart.
> 
> gg




I was telling a mate to sell at 60. Then at 40. Leverage has hurt them. When mac was @ 100 a share, they had 6000 staff. Now @20 they have 12000 staff. I would say media are not reporting on silent staff lay offs there. Estimate by y.e. some 3 to 5 thousand could be gone...


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 March 2009)

goldchopper said:


> I was telling a mate to sell at 60. Then at 40. Leverage has hurt them. When mac was @ 100 a share, they had 6000 staff. Now @20 they have 12000 staff. I would say media are not reporting on silent staff lay offs there. Estimate by y.e. some 3 to 5 thousand could be gone...




Accept your comments.

I am still concerned that insiders may be selling out.

This uptrend would be more convincing if the volume were not falling as the price rises.

Perhaps ARG and the other big players have called it a day, or the MQG people have figured they have squeezed the apple dry.

gg


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## Naked shorts (17 March 2009)

I hope they go next, I staying with a guy who works there, he is the most arrogant, stupid, lying, insecure SOB I have ever met. It would make me extremely happy to see him lose his job.


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## nunthewiser (17 March 2009)

Naked shorts said:


> I hope they go next, I staying with a guy who works there, he is the most arrogant, stupid, lying, insecure SOB I have ever met. It would make me extremely happy to see him lose his job.




LOL u need a trip to the convent !


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Accept your comments.
> 
> I am still concerned that insiders may be selling out.
> 
> ...




Seriously though all you nun fetishists it would not take too many associated funds to push this little gerkin up today, and sell into the expected rise tomorrow.

gg


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## nunthewiser (18 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Seriously though all you nun fetishists it would not take too many associated funds to push this little gerkin up today, and sell into the expected rise tomorrow.
> 
> gg




dunno what nuns have got to do with the price of eggs but do know that this low volume push lately on MQG aint no confidence signal


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> dunno what nuns have got to do with the price of eggs but do know that this low volume push lately on MQG aint no confidence signal




agree.

gg


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## cutz (18 March 2009)

G’Day Everyone,

A few of you have mentioned that the bounce in MQG has been accompanied by low volumes but is this a natural occurrence during the depths of a bear market?  i.e. many players got burnt  picking up stocks on the way up and around the top,  then as the party ended volumes started increasing on the way down as pain thresholds were being breached . 

Now we have a situation where many of the participants that contributed to the volumes licking their wounds vowing to never return and the stayers picking up the pieces, naturally this is reflected in lower volumes all round.

I’ve only got iress which just shows volume traded and not value but am I correct in assuming this.


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## cutz (19 March 2009)

What's the lastest theory on MQG Guys,

Share price has smashed through $20 on increasing volumes.

Anyone?


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## nunthewiser (19 March 2009)

cutz said:


> What's the lastest theory on MQG Guys,
> 
> Share price has smashed through $20 on increasing volumes.
> 
> Anyone?




um . Go MQG for holders ?


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## cutz (19 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> um . Go MQG for holders ?





Hi Nun,

Sorry I hope I haven’t come across as ramping MQG, 

I have actually formed the view that the recent rise in this stock has been overdone, so much so that today I have gone against my sensibilities and put on a synthetic split strike short ( Apr Expiry 19/21), my brain was saying no but my heart made me click the mouse. If i don't get a favourable move tommorrow, i'm out of there.


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## nunthewiser (19 March 2009)

cutz said:


> Hi Nun,
> 
> Sorry I hope I haven’t come across as ramping MQG,
> 
> I have actually formed the view that the recent rise in this stock has been overdone, so much so that today I have gone against my sensibilities and put on a synthetic split strike short ( Apr Expiry 19/21), my brain was saying no but my heart made me click the mouse. If i don't get a favourable move tommorrow, i'm out of there.




i actually have no opinion on MQG other than what i posted re vols and the rise m8 ..... actually got a few friends in chat currently trading it from around the lows and happy they were braver than me ..... happy for holders but my previous statement re the vols still stands .... not for me but happy others making a nice quid out of it

i do however admire your stategy in hedging your position both ways there (i may not understand the option type but understand the concept), well done


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> i actually have no opinion on MQG other than what i posted re vols and the rise m8 ..... actually got a few friends in chat currently trading it from around the lows and happy they were braver than me ..... happy for holders but my previous statement re the vols still stands .... not for me but happy others making a nice quid out of it
> 
> i do however admire your stategy in hedging your position both ways there (i may not understand the option type but understand the concept), well done




Next week will be crucial for MQG. It tracks the DOW pretty much and if that sinks then there goes MQG.

gg


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## sammy84 (22 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Next week will be crucial for MQG. It tracks the DOW pretty much and if that sinks then there goes MQG.
> 
> gg




Yep, $15 to $23.50 in less than 20 days on rising volume and a positive trending RSI...this puppy is sick


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## sammy84 (31 March 2009)

Couldn't resist one more post in this thread. MQG up to $27, and extra billion in its pockets from the MCG sale. Not such a BNB after all


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## michael_selway (31 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Couldn't resist one more post in this thread. MQG up to $27, and extra billion in its pockets from the MCG sale. Not such a BNB after all




Hm not bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 653.5 313.8 365.4 460.1 
DPS 345.0 220.0 204.2 247. 



> Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG) today announced that Canada
> Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) has made formal cash offers to acquire MCG
> stapled securities for A$2.50 per stapled security.
> The A$2.50 offer price values the equity of MCG at A$1.37bn and implies an enterprise
> ...










thx

MS


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 April 2009)

I'm sorry to rain on the MQG parade but technically this stock looks sick and may go the way of BNB with tears all round and recriminations abounding.

MQG have now changed their business model and are selling some of their best cash flow businesses because I presume they need cash and see a slow down in cash flow.

Its boring funnymntals and before I fall asleep I'll post a chart.

This shows MQG still in the mother of all downtrends.

The nadir will occur at $15 when all but the brave will exit.

gg


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## nomore4s (2 April 2009)

I'm actually not that bearish on MQG atm.

I think we could see $32-$34 before we see sub $20 again. If they release half decent figures and don't cut the D/E by too much we could see prices pushing $50 again imo.

Anyone know when they are due to release results?


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## sammy84 (2 April 2009)

Hey GG

If you tighten your trend line on that last post and have it touching the previous highs, it would then seem that MQG has actually broken its long term trend. 

I am bullish on this stock, just waiting for an entry signal to get in


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## nulla nulla (2 April 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Hey GG
> 
> If you tighten your trend line on that last post and have it touching the previous highs, it would then seem that MQG has actually broken its long term trend.
> 
> I am bullish on this stock, just waiting for an entry signal to get in




$16.00 would have been a good entry point for someone prepared to park their funds for the long haul or spec a short term capital gain. A dividend of $2.00pa would give an annual yield rate of 12.5%. At yesterdays close of $26.40 you would be in front by $10.40 or 65% with long term prospect in the stratosphere (give it a few years and appreciate the ongong divs in the interim). 
Of course it will oscilate in the near future and could even test the lows of $15.00 if the ban on shorting financial stocks is lifted or mqg decides to go back to the market for a capital raising.


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 April 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Hey GG
> 
> If you tighten your trend line on that last post and have it touching the previous highs, it would then seem that MQG has actually broken its long term trend.
> 
> I am bullish on this stock, just waiting for an entry signal to get in




Thanks sammy84, agreed , I accept your criticism. however higher highs and higher lows are the signs of an uptrending stock and MQG is not in that league, yet.

I'll post 2 charts, the first is a daily, showing considerable support at the $26 mark and as you say a definite break of the down trend.


The second is a gann fan on the low looking forward and if MQG behaves itself and stays in the upward band it is in, then many an MQG punter will be happy. I'm not convinced, yet but like you would buy on a definite signal.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 April 2009)

The recent price action looks positive for Macquarie tragics. Anyone buying a month ago and selling today would be laughing.

I enclose a chart, the RSI shows an overbought signal. This is not unusual in a beginning uptrend. 

I'm still wary.

gg


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## nulla nulla (4 April 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> $16.00 would have been a good entry point for someone prepared to park their funds for the long haul or spec a short term capital gain. A dividend of $2.00pa would give an annual yield rate of 12.5%. At yesterdays close of $26.40 you would be in front by $10.40 or 65% with long term prospect in the stratosphere (give it a few years and appreciate the ongong divs in the interim).
> Of course it will oscilate in the near future and could even test the lows of $15.00 if the ban on shorting financial stocks is lifted or mqg decides to go back to the market for a capital raising.




With MQG closing at $29.45 this now represents a gain of $13.45 on the hypothetic entry of $16.00 or a gain of 84.05%. This stock was only just reflecting the potential book gain of $1 billion on MCG when it snuck up yesterday, again, on the notice of MQG proposing to buy back long term bond at discounts of 40 - 50 percent of cost. You can call it the millionaires factory and bag it all you like but they are clever fellows in there and know how to turn a profit. 
What are the chances of MQG closing the gap on CBA and leap frogging ahead, again?


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 April 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> With MQG closing at $29.45 this now represents a gain of $13.45 on the hypothetic entry of $16.00 or a gain of 84.05%. This stock was only just reflecting the potential book gain of $1 billion on MCG when it snuck up yesterday, again, on the notice of MQG proposing to buy back long term bond at discounts of 40 - 50 percent of cost. You can call it the millionaires factory and bag it all you like but they are clever fellows in there and know how to turn a profit.
> What are the chances of MQG closing the gap on CBA and leap frogging ahead, again?




agree nulla, however I'm waiting for the ban on shorting MQG to occur before committing myself to its long term health.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 April 2009)

Just an update on MQG.

The price rises but the volume falls.

Always a worry for technical analysts.

This may be a trend trade in its final throes.

It may fall over the next week and if on higher volume then perhaps get out although if it recovers on higher volume then it may survive.

Remember the volume here is on a $25 share as opposed to a "breaking $100 not so long ago"

Sell buy sell etc.

A chart.

gg


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## beamstas (9 April 2009)

Decreasing Volume on a series of very bullish up bars isn't always a bad thing

The fact that the close is high and the open is low means that there is alot of demand

The fact that there is lower volume means there are less sellers or very strong holders, which gives lower supply

Think about it... More demand.. Lower Supply.... Prices Rise

Not rocket science

Brad


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 April 2009)

beamstas said:


> Decreasing Volume on a series of very bullish up bars isn't always a bad thing
> 
> The fact that the close is high and the open is low means that there is alot of demand
> 
> ...




A reasonable premise.

I take the opposite view. The total volume of money supporting this stock is low, very low, the big holders sold out some months ago, this support is composed of small operators imo.

Time will tell

gg


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## beamstas (10 April 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A reasonable premise.
> 
> I take the opposite view. The total volume of money supporting this stock is low, very low, the big holders sold out some months ago, this support is composed of small operators imo.
> 
> ...




Yep,

The fact that it was a very impulsive move off that bottom with very high closes indicates to me that there are no real sellers. It could also mean, as you rightly said, there is no professional money getting involved. Weak holders will easily be shaken out with a move down, causing the price to collapse.

Macquarie has doubled in price in the last month. I can't see it going much further without a rest

At this stage i can't really call it either way
I'll stick with a move down, following the broader market

Brad


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## Abcguy (15 April 2009)

Correct me if I'm wrong please but using the Buffett approach (I've been studying him quite a bit lately), looking at the fundamentals and forgetting about all this technical bull****, wouldn't MQG have been a damn good buy at $15?


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## nomore4s (15 April 2009)

Abcguy said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong please but using the Buffett approach (I've been studying him quite a bit lately), looking at the fundamentals and forgetting about all this technical bull****, wouldn't MQG have been a damn good buy at $15?




lol, history now shows it would have been a damn good buy at $15 no matter what "bull****" you used to buy.

Do the fundamentals say it is good value at $15?

There is also nothing saying it won't one day trade at $15.00 again, but it is looking unlikely in the short term at least.


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## beamstas (15 April 2009)

Abcguy said:


> forgetting about all this technical bull****






So i take it you have enough money to buy Macquarie Bank then? 

Brad


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## Abcguy (16 April 2009)

beamstas said:


> So i take it you have enough money to buy Macquarie Bank then?
> 
> Brad




If I don't like technical analysis why would that make you automatically think that I would have enough money to buy the whole of MQG?


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