# PRC - Pike River Coal



## Bushman (11 October 2007)

Just thought I would start some discussion on this stock. Looking for some thermal coking coal plays given the continued projections for global steel demand.  

PRC - Pike River Coal

Currently developing a hard coking coal deposit on the west coast of the South Island of NZ. 

IPO on the ASX about 3 months ago at $1. Current SP @ $0.785. 

Background:
* 180m shares with cornerstone investors NZOG (62.3m), Suarashtra (17m) and Gujarat (20m). 65m shares in recent IPO. 20m options.
* Mine expected to start producing in April 2008 (delayed from expected March start date as indicated in IPO. 
* Mine development budget has a current $11m increase due to 'more expensive fractured rock costs' in constructing 2,300m tunnel to coal seem. Revised mine capex $185m. 
* Fully financed up to mine opening via equity and debt facility (Westpac). NZOG has agreed to finance initial mine working capital requirements. 
* Premuim hard coking coal with low ash content. Long term conditional sales contracts entered into with keystone investors Gujarat, Suarastra.
* Mine will be of the Brunner Seam - 11.5mt measured, 27.5 mt indicated and 19.5 mt inferred. Mine will be 1 mt per year from FY09 with a cash cost of $77NZD per tonne. Conservative mine estimate is that 17.6 mt will be recoved over the life of the project, giving a mine life of 18 yrs. 
* Blue sky upside of deeper Paparoa coal seam can be accessed. 
* IPO sales price $96USD per tonne. Recent announcement suggests this price will actually be $115USD per tonne based on current demand. 
* Annual EBIT (based on sales 1 MT) = Revenue $115m USD less mine costs $57.75m USD (assuming USD/NZD ER 0.75) = $57.25m. 
* Current mkt cap $141.3m.  

Worth keeping an eye out with global steel demand set to continue price pressure on coking coal. Minimal risks as far as I can see - main one would be an initial placement to raise working capital requirements before coal sales turn this into a cash cow. 

Be interested to hear people thoughts. 

Note it is an illiquid stock and longer term investment. Def would not suit day traders.

I do not own any of these as yet. On my watch list.

Cheers
Bushman


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## arminius (6 December 2007)

rail access to deep water at lyttleton, tunnel 3/4 complete, all going well. 
im a believer in quality over quantity and this looks the goods. 
it will surely spike when they hit the seam.
the transport is 10% cheaper than planned. 
cash cow is right bushy


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## michael_selway (6 December 2007)

Bushman said:


> Just thought I would start some discussion on this stock. Looking for some thermal coking coal plays given the continued projections for global steel demand.
> 
> PRC - Pike River Coal
> 
> ...




Wow thanks, another coal stock!

*27 November 2007
Pike River Coal Announces New Coal Transport Route
Pike River Coal Limited has today announced it will transport it’s premium hard
coking coal by rail to Lyttelton, Christchurch for export under a new agreement
signed with Solid Energy NZ Limited (Solid Energy).
The 18 year agreement to use rail, supersedes previous transport arrangements with
West Coast Coal Company Limited (WCCC) which were based on coastal shipping
of Pike River coal from the port at Greymouth to Port Taranaki for export.
Pike River Chief Executive Gordon Ward says “The main factors leading to the
change in transport mode were a significant recent increase in rail capacity that has
allowed Solid Energy and Toll Rail to transport all of Pike River’s coal by rail and
the fact that the financing conditions in the transport agreement were not met.”
Following ONTRACK’s upgrade of the rail route and implementation of improved
traction control on trains, Solid Energy and Toll Rail are able to introduce 45 wagon
trains boosting the capacity and efficiency of the Midland line. Since the
Government took back ownership of the rail network in July 2004, investing $25
million in the Midland line through ONTRACK, Solid Energy has committed more
than $100 million to the line through its long term contract with Toll Rail and then
spent a further $15 million on the new Cobden rail bridge over the Grey River.
The total cost to transport Pike River coal from the coal preparation plant to the point
loaded on panamax vessels at Port Lyttelton under the new agreement with Solid
Energy is approximately NZ$39 per tonne. Mr Ward said “This cost is at a level at
least 10% less than WCCC were able to offer and slightly below the level forecast in
the IPO prospectus.”
Port Taranaki Chief Executive Roy Weaver says “We worked extremely hard at
WCCC to establish an innovative coastal shipping alternative transport solution for
West Coast exporters with Pike River Coal providing the base load. We are very
disappointed in not being able to build the transport chain for this project, but were
unable to constrain construction cost increases since 2005 to match the rates offered
on the newly renovated Midland Line. WCCC wishes Toll Rail, Solid Energy, Port
of Lyttelton and Pike River Coal Limited all the best for a successful venture.”
Pike River has agreed with Solid Energy that it will have capacity reserved of up to
1.3 million tonnes per year on the rail network and has priority access to rail and port
facilities to transport that tonnage.
Mr Ward said “One benefit of this decision will be the shorter distance Pike River
news release
coal travels by road and the consequent reduction in emissions and on traffic through
the Greymouth township. Delivery by Solid Energy and Toll Rail of a proven annual
capacity of more than 4 million tonnes has given us the confidence to move forward
with Solid Energy’s transport supply proposal”.
For further information contact:
Gordon Ward 04-4940190
Chief Executive
Pike River Coal Limited*


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## noirua (10 December 2007)

Just looking at this one more closely after the lift in the share price and particularly the quality of the coking coal, costs and any shipping problems:  http://www.pike.co.nz (Having problems with this website, maybe it will get better.)


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## lazyfish (12 January 2008)

Bushman said:


> Just thought I would start some discussion on this stock. Looking for some thermal coking coal plays given the continued projections for global steel demand.
> 
> PRC - Pike River Coal
> 
> ...




Actually I have been looking for OPEX information. Can you tell me where you got this number from? In particular I would like to find out whether this $77/ton include transportation to port. TIA.


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## Bushman (12 January 2008)

lazyfish said:


> Actually I have been looking for OPEX information. Can you tell me where you got this number from? In particular I would like to find out whether this $77/ton include transportation to port. TIA.




Hey LF; 

From memory is it is from the prospectus listed on the pike river coal website. Google Pike River Coal. 

I will have a look when I have a chance too. 

Cheers


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## Bushman (13 January 2008)

http://www.pike.co.nz/reports/analyst-reports/PRC FINAL 17-Dec-07.pdf/

From the latest McDouall research report, OPEX of $77 NZD/tonne is split as follows:

Mine costs                   $35
Transport costs            $40 **
Other                          $2

** $40 transport cost per tonne is as per the original prospectus. Since then, a revised coal transport arrangement has been entered into, reducing opex by $1 per tonne. This will lead to an overall cost of production of $76 NZD per tonne.


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## Bushman (14 January 2008)

20m share order went through at 90 cps this morning. Wonder who is buying and selling? That sort of amount would have to be one of the cornerstone investors.


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## noirua (1 April 2008)

noirua said:


> Just looking at this one more closely after the lift in the share price and particularly the quality of the coking coal, costs and any shipping problems:  http://www.pike.co.nz (Having problems with this website, maybe it will get better.)



Since last posting the website is still very shakey. The company raised $100 million for development and appears to be very determined to get this one moving quickly. Will watch trading and may buy today, on the otherhand I may not.


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## noirua (3 April 2008)

noirua said:


> Since last posting the website is still very shakey. The company raised $100 million for development and appears to be very determined to get this one moving quickly. Will watch trading and may buy today, on the otherhand I may not.



I've probably done the wrong thing buying just a few shares in Pike River Coal.  But with all that cash piled up ready, surely with coal prices so high, it's got to be OK. Hasn't it?


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## Scallop (11 April 2008)

Looks like you picked it well Noirua.

Things might be coming together nicely for this one with the big increase in coking coal price just as it comes into production.

Looks like a good long term buy, check out the forecast eps for 2010.

Regards


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## michael_selway (11 April 2008)

Scallop said:


> Looks like you picked it well Noirua.
> 
> Things might be coming together nicely for this one with the big increase in coking coal price just as it comes into production.
> 
> ...




Hi do they have forecast EPS anywhere for this stock PRC?

thx

MS

http://www.pike.co.nz/reports/analyst-reports/7-Apr-08_PRC.pdf


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## noirua (28 April 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi do they have forecast EPS anywhere for this stock PRC?
> thx
> MS
> http://www.pike.co.nz/reports/analyst-reports/7-Apr-08_PRC.pdf



Hi m_s, BHP have agreed coking coal prices at US$300 per tonne from April 2008 and this compares to US$98 per tonne for 2007.  I doubt anyone can really work out the EPS in these circumstances, and there are many companies wanting a stake in rare Aussie coking coal minnows or mines. 
I'm stuck to this one with superglue - good luck


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## RedHerring (28 April 2008)

Forsyth Barr have had a go at a forward EPS estimate in their research note.

They assume premium hard coking coal prices of US$300/t in the March 2008-09 year and US$190/t in 2009-10, drifting back to US$100/t over the following 3-4 years.

Once in full production in 2009-10 producing 1M tonnes pa, mine life of 18 years, they estimate a EPS of NZD 39.4cents and predict a fully franked dividend of NZD 21.0cents.

I guess unless further resources are identified, which is flagged as a potential outcome, Pike River will essentially be a cash cow and will probably trade a high dividend yield, a little like Jubilee Mines did when Cosmos was their only mining asset. It will all depend on what the company does with the cash it retains.

It's worth noting the valuation sensitivity to both the price of coking coal and the NZD/USD exchange rate.


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## AnDy62 (29 April 2008)

Damn, this is the first time I've seen this thread and PRC has already set sail.

I'm looking for a relatively unknown longer term coal prospect.

Do people think this is still good value? Any other suggestions?

Thanks, Andy


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## Real1ty (29 April 2008)

RedHerring said:


> Forsyth Barr have had a go at a forward EPS estimate in their research note.
> 
> They assume premium hard coking coal prices of US$300/t in the March 2008-09 year and US$190/t in 2009-10, drifting back to US$100/t over the following 3-4 years.
> 
> ...




While analysts forward price forecasts are something to work off, they are notoriously wrong and nearly always underestimate supply pressures and predictions usually end up being way to conservative.

Am watching this one closely.


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## noirua (6 May 2008)

Real1ty said:


> While analysts forward price forecasts are something to work off, they are notoriously wrong and nearly always underestimate supply pressures and predictions usually end up being way to conservative.
> 
> Am watching this one closely.



Quite right real1ty, that's been precisely the analysts problems in the last year or so. Infact, looking back at the analysts views its surprising how they downgrade a stock to hold, and then two months later its up 50%, and so it goes on. Their estimates on coal prices have proved as badly wrong as it gets, and still they keep on estimating. 

Pike River Coal are now up to $1.30 on the back of booming coking coal prices.


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## rafsanjani (10 May 2008)

AnDy62 said:


> Damn, this is the first time I've seen this thread and PRC has already set sail.
> 
> I'm looking for a relatively unknown longer term coal prospect.
> 
> ...




Andy, you might want to check out Gujarat NRE Minerals, GNM.ax - quite unknown, already in coking coal production - starting at 350 000T 2008 -- long term target of 2.5-3 MTPA in 2010-11. Pretty nice development story. Strong indian backing.


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## RedHerring (10 May 2008)

rafsanjani said:


> Andy, you might want to check out Gujarat NRE Minerals, GNM.ax - quite unknown, already in coking coal production - starting at 350 000T 2008 -- long term target of 2.5-3 MTPA in 2010-11. Pretty nice development story. Strong indian backing.




See PRC 14-Jan-08 Change in Substantial Holding announcement...



> Gujarat NRE Coke Limited has transferred its shareholding in Pike River Coal Limited to its wholly owned Australian subsidiary Gujarat NRE Limited.




A 10% holding in PRC was transferred to GNM (previously INR - listing code change on 8-Feb-08), so you can have an indirect exposure to PRC too 

DYOR


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## nizar (10 May 2008)

Hi noirua,

Nice you see you are riding this champion.
I only got on a few weeks ago.
Not complaining though


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## rafsanjani (4 June 2008)

Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 Per Tonne
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00847777

-- not bad, this one will be printing moneys for me for a long time


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## noirua (25 June 2008)

Bouncing along are Pike River Coal , ignoring bearish sentiment in the coal sector of late, and now double the low point in January. Coking coal at a booming US$300 per tonne and joining the NZ50 have put this one in the limelight. Infrastructure go-aheads and completions are making for on time future production targets.


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## urgalzmine (25 June 2008)

noirua said:


> Bouncing along are Pike River Coal , ignoring bearish sentiment in the coal sector of late, and now double the low point in January. Coking coal at a booming US$300 per tonne and joining the NZ50 have put this one in the limelight. Infrastructure go-aheads and completions are making for on time future production targets.




Hey Noirua have a look at NZO it holds about 30% of PRC...

PRC has also got contracts from Japanese steel mills and indian share holders (Gujarat NRE Coke Limited and Saurashtra Fuels Private Limited)


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## shag (5 September 2008)

cannt be long till they strike the full coal face
should push the share up a bit
should hit it in 3 weeks approx by current progress.


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## shag (9 September 2008)

ok only a hundred meters to go for the tunnel, chewed thru 20meters last week, so picking up pace again.
thats 5 weeks left at that pace, but i suspect they are accelerating. they r using the new road header.


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## noirua (9 September 2008)

shag said:


> ok only a hundred meters to go for the tunnel, chewed thru 20meters last week, so picking up pace again.
> thats 5 weeks left at that pace, but i suspect they are accelerating. they r using the new road header.



Thanks for the update shag, one of the most interesting future producers, imho.  Needs a bit more patience, but it will get there.


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## babka (10 September 2008)

*PRC*

This is the second consecutive day that PRC sp is being hammered. Since I am unable to find any profound reasons (apart from the fact that market is down generally) I am asking anybody would know something I don't. Thanks.


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## shag (11 September 2008)

*Re: PRC*



babka said:


> This is the second consecutive day that PRC sp is being hammered. Since I am unable to find any profound reasons (apart from the fact that market is down generally) I am asking anybody would know something I don't. Thanks.




i'd just treat it as a buying opp.
it takes little volume to depress this share here in aus
i've no news, like its awesome coal, was seemingly profitable at coal price of a third of the price
they are a wisker away from the full coal face, seem to have the infastructure in place to mine and sell the stuff
only 20k sold today so far, so wouldnt more trade if some poor news was looming?
its such good coal, i've burnt tons of the stuff from the west coast. my firegrates basically melted. little ash or sulphur.


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## babka (11 September 2008)

Thanks Shag, I feel the same way like you. Volume is a problem on sydney ASX.
I will watch the price movement and will average down. I belief in the company and that not before too long will be trading well.


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## shag (12 September 2008)

itS a large resource too, with good possibilities its much bigger than its current resource
also hopefully they will make the coal loadable from the west coast rather than the long trip to lyttleton(chch). very major cost savings in that, barge it or slurry pipe etc.


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## babka (16 September 2008)

*PRC sudden drop*

I am totally perplexed why PRC dropped 19c yesterday. Couldn't believe my eyes. Were people panicking because of the statement that PRC was awarded for being good conservationist????


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## noirua (16 September 2008)

*Re: PRC sudden drop*



babka said:


> I am totally perplexed why PRC dropped 19c yesterday. Couldn't believe my eyes. Were people panicking because of the statement that PRC was awarded for being good conservationist????




Probably the fall in coal prices as steel prices fall sharply. Hopefully the US$ will continue to climb, thus offsetting this fall. Choice now is to ride out the storm or jump off the ship.


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## michael_selway (16 September 2008)

*Re: PRC sudden drop*



babka said:


> I am totally perplexed why PRC dropped 19c yesterday. Couldn't believe my eyes. Were people panicking because of the statement that PRC was awarded for being good conservationist????




Hi Babka, do you have forward numbers for PRC?

Then i can see how much it is worth 

thx

MS


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## babka (16 September 2008)

Hello Michael, I am sorry I dont have forward numbers for PRC - there is absolutely nothing on Commsec site and I am guided mainly by some minor research and PRC website. I would appreciate very much if you would be kind enough to help me here and maybe enlighten me re those numbers or direct me where to get them. Thanks.


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## Who Dares Wins (19 September 2008)

I don't understand either why this stock has been caught up in the recent troubles, it should be considered one of the safe havens.

Consider the following: 

1. McDouall Stuart target of $2.75 NZD with BUY recommendation.

2. ABN Amro 12 month target of $3.87 NZD with BUY recommendation.

3. UBS (september) 12 month target of $2.40 NZD. 

4. Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd. contracted to purchase 40% of coal from PRC for the entire life of the mine at market prices.

5. Substantial holders: NZ Oil & Gas and the Indian companies Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd and Saurashtra Fuels Private Ltd. 

6. Shipments prior to 31/03/09 set at $300 USD per tonne.

7. First coal production expected in the very near term.

8. Needs no further funding.


_*Go PRC Go!*_


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## noirua (19 September 2008)

Hi who dares wins, don't worry about the drop, it is really a great performance by Pike River in the face of the recent collapse of many mining stocks.  I'm surprised PRC have not gone under $1 in the circumstances.


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## michael_selway (30 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi who dares wins, don't worry about the drop, it is really a great performance by Pike River in the face of the recent collapse of many mining stocks.  I'm surprised PRC have not gone under $1 in the circumstances.




yeah up a little on a down day 

PIKE RIVER COAL OVERVIEW 
Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) continues to make good progress in the development of its underground premium hard coking coal mine, located 50 kilometres north east of Greymouth on the South Island’s West Coast. Under Pike River’s mine plan 17.6 million tonnes of high quality, low ash coking coal will be produced over the mine life for use in the steel making industry, particularly in Asia and the sub-continent. Pike River’s hard coking coal will be used by coke and steel makers and will be an important component in the coke making blend due to its low ash, low phosphorous and high fluidity.


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## noirua (30 September 2008)

michael_selway said:


> yeah up a little on a down day
> 
> PIKE RIVER COAL OVERVIEW
> Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) continues to make good progress in the development of its underground premium hard coking coal mine, located 50 kilometres north east of Greymouth on the South Island’s West Coast. Under Pike River’s mine plan 17.6 million tonnes of high quality, low ash coking coal will be produced over the mine life for use in the steel making industry, particularly in Asia and the sub-continent. Pike River’s hard coking coal will be used by coke and steel makers and will be an important component in the coke making blend due to its low ash, low phosphorous and high fluidity.




Thanks for that m_s, Even if the Hard coking coal price falls from US$300 per tonne down to US$200, as a few forecast.  Profits per tonne will be enormous.  Also, the Aussie$ is falling, so, the 33% drop in the coal price should be offset quite a bit, around 16% - 17% today.


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## noirua (1 October 2008)

noirua said:


> Thanks for that m_s, Even if the Hard coking coal price falls from US$300 per tonne down to US$200, as a few forecast.  Profits per tonne will be enormous.  Also, the Aussie$ is falling, so, the 33% drop in the coal price should be offset quite a bit, around 16% - 17% today.




Apologies there, should of course read NZ dollar, anyway, weakness in the currency still applies, perhaps more so.


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## shag (7 October 2008)

tHEY CAN now stArt TO iNvestigAte THE secoND COal seaM below thiS OnE, so POSIBLE rEsOuRcE UPGRADES.
A wEEkfrOM THE coal face by their website.


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## noirua (10 October 2008)

Came back with an apology, after all I said, I've sold this stock as I think the future for coking coal looks a good deal blacker than last week. Good luck, hope it explodes upwards.


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## michael_selway (11 October 2008)

noirua said:


> Came back with an apology, after all I said, I've sold this stock as I think the future for coking coal looks a good deal blacker than last week. Good luck, hope it explodes upwards.




Hm yeah coking coal may be hit more than thermal?












thx
MS


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## NomadAUS (13 October 2008)

Well it has been a while and one would think that they have managed to reach the coal by now............

I wonder what the next few days bring us


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## Who Dares Wins (14 October 2008)

Check out the companys website NomadAUS for more information. The tunnel is now within 5m of the Brunner coal seam and coal is expected anyday now.


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## Who Dares Wins (17 October 2008)

The comapny has announced that they have struck coal at Pike River after 2 years of tunneling. Also aired on TV One in new Zealand. The announcemant mentions that the prospectus was based on $98 USD per tonne giving the company a large margin with sales until March 2009 set at $300 USD.


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## shag (19 October 2008)

about time, from now they r producing coal.
you should note, its top linhe coal, better than any i've seen so will be the first to sell.
and that second seam is promising.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10538115


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## mrgroundwork (20 October 2008)

looks pretty good... i notice it hasnt got smashed anywhere near as much as the other coal stocks... 

what are realistic cash costs per tonne?


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## shag (21 October 2008)

michael
i like yr graph of diretors buying/selling vrs sp
its pretty much on the ball so far.
its supprising that this stock trades more in nz than here in aus.
now labour r history that must help productivity also, less regulations, new employments contracts act i hope, and what about holding off on the carbon tax for a while too as inline with australia?


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## shag (3 November 2008)

i ditched this dog, most anyway. needed the dosh plus so many other stocks with a uptrend, however temporary.
sadly, being in shares  since the 80's, kiwi stocks just don't move much, most anyway. it may change when we become an oil economy(we have eight sedimentary baisins which have not or barely been explored, with the ones where people have bothered to put a drill into it, have found gas and damn good light crude). i can't help mentioning the great southern baisin, where hunt petroleum found oil/gas, in 4 of eight wells it popped below the sea before the rig got smashed to pieces. supposedly, only a rumour, they found a elephant gusher, but then-oil low, the roaring 40's, muldoon pushing for fair royalties, it was plugged. ExxonMobil and omv are currently trying to work the area.
the gov geologists are very bullish about all these fields, esp the great southen baisin where the last major field could be found. a bit off topic but if any of the nz oil stocks start moving alarmingly then i'd give them a look.


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## robert toms (3 November 2008)

I hold a few NZ oil and gas (large holders in PRC)
What are some of the other New Zealand oil and gas stocks ?


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## noirua (13 December 2008)

I'm not holding PRC stock. This video, 8 weeks old, is interesting as it shows the tunnel break through to the hard coking coal:  http://video.mining.com/videos/675c0/pike_river_coking_coal.aspx


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## noirua (3 April 2009)

It will be several weeks before we find out whether this renounceable rights issue at 70 cents comes off or not.  $41 million dollars of much needed cash with the stock price at 66 cents.
Coking coal is the name of the game for PRC and it is a game of future coal sales and rights issue worries.


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## RossRoss (3 April 2009)

70 cents nz payable for each new share and option.NZ sales at 82 cents so the new issue should have no problem.


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## babka (3 April 2009)

I am definitely taking up my entitlement. Have big hopes and faith for PRC. I read that 40% of coal production has been contracted for the life of its mine.
Just not quite sure about the options (they are free, yes) but at $1.25 - is it a good deal or not? Am right to think that the sp has to reach $1.25 before any option can be exercised? Thanks for the answer.


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## noirua (4 August 2009)

"Pike River Coal delays First Shipment; ..."
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/...irst-shipment-confidence-deadline-will-be-met


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## shag (4 August 2009)

its had bad luck prc, or poor planning.....
it looks good longterm with top coal and those underlying seams
being a nzx stock and company makes it a real dog tho.


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## Zird (16 November 2009)

It is now 4 months since the last post for PRC and still going backwards. Still down 50% on my investment from last year. A real dog of a share. The only thing I will ever buy again that is NZ is their white wines - some great wines at good prices.


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## babka (18 November 2009)

Yes Zird, the same here. Very disappointing stock, lots of bad luck, lots of teething problems. Have read somewhere that if they are not going to have any valid announcement re production by Jan/Feb next year, the sp might go down to around 60c. Hope not!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Zird (25 November 2009)

*Holy Smoke Babka* What a heart stopping day fpr PRC holders -  the share price went up *0.005* cents today.

We are on a roll bro! Who cares if they win the Bledisloe year in and year out. I am taking the rest of the week off.:


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## McCoy Pauley (25 November 2009)

Shouldn't that be 0.5c or $0.005, not five-thousands of a cent?  A fairly big difference, I would have thought.


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## Zird (25 November 2009)

Hi Mc Coy - I just rechecked my Commsec sheet incase I had got carried away with the Euphoria and yep it says that the price has increased today per share of $0.005.  

How anything can increase by this amount defies the senses. My PRC shares value increased by $4.
Maybe it is because the mine is in NZ and things move very  very slowly on the shaky isles. I guess it is why there are 1/2 mil. kiwis in Oz.

Can anybody else offer an explanation - tongue in cheek or otherwise?


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## babka (26 November 2009)

Hi Zerd and others, my only hopes for something positive are pinned for Jan/Feb 2010, when we should know more about PRC "going live" and finally starting to dig something from the ground. What an agony this share has caused so far; of course I could have sold but being in red so much I would get back peanuts.
Now I will wait another 2-3 months.


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## DTB (26 November 2009)

babka said:


> Hi Zerd and others, my only hopes for something positive are pinned for Jan/Feb 2010, when we should know more about PRC "going live" and finally starting to dig something from the ground. What an agony this share has caused so far; of course I could have sold but being in red so much I would get back peanuts.
> Now I will wait another 2-3 months.




Why wait 2-3 months to try and 'win' your money back through this stock?  And what is the opportunity cost of hanging in there?

Start with a clean piece of paper and ask yourself where the best place to put that money is.  Is PRC going to perform better than any other stock in the next few months?

It has taken me the last year to realise that you can't get emotionally attached to a stock. Sometimes you just need to take the hit and move on.

You can always re-enter the trade when things are looking more positive.


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## Zird (26 November 2009)

Thank you DTB - your comments are  most welcome and I will take it on board. It is a  painful lesson that  hanging on to a dead dog of a stock only prolonges the pain and loses more hard earned money especially when as you say there is also an opportunity cost of not investing elsewhere. I have much to learn and I am grateful for the guidance and will need to be braver in my decision making.

PRC has dropped yesterdays gains of 0.005c atoposting.


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## noirua (6 April 2010)

PRC are having a long struggle in NZ to produce large amounts of hard coking coal in a very difficult mine. They deserve to get this right and the high price of coke should push them away from shore to the promised land, eventually.
Sold the stock a while back as their struggles continued, eyeing up this KIWI share again.
First coal shipment to India was in February 2010 - got there in the end.


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## noirua (3 June 2010)

Still not sure about this stock despite buying a few shares. It's taken ages to get to this hard coking coal, though the stock price has been resilient.
India is interested with a colorful director on board. But I'm still unsure. 
If you know more about Pike River Coal I'd be glad to here - cheers noi


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## noirua (12 September 2010)

Pike River Coal the NZ hard Coking Coal miner that fought hard through tunnels to reach the resource are selling coal now.
The last shipment was for $6 million on 6th Sepember at US$225 a tonne. Up from US$200 in the shipment last quarter. 
Losses in the last full year were at $48 million and $39 million after tax allowances.
If they manage $72 million of shipments from the Earthquake slightly ravaged port of Lyttleton, NZ then their position will be looking up. Profits and not losses look likely next time round, year ending 2011. 
Profits hopefully in the wide range of $20 - $50 million - needs more research on this.


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## Who Dares Wins (19 November 2010)

Massive explosion at Pike River coal mine about 1600hrs NZDT today. 2 survivors so far have walked out and reported feeling an explosion underground. 36 miners still unaccounted for. helicopter just flew over the area and reported smouldering trees around one of the portals and a building blown off the hillside. Smoke still coming from the portal. Huge emergency response underway.


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## skc (19 November 2010)

Who Dares Wins said:


> Massive explosion at Pike River coal mine about 1600hrs NZDT today. 2 survivors so far have walked out and reported feeling an explosion underground. 36 miners still unaccounted for. helicopter just flew over the area and reported smouldering trees around one of the portals and a building blown off the hillside. Smoke still coming from the portal. Huge emergency response underway.




Such terrible news. I wish they can pull a Chilean-type rescue effort for the missing.

News article here.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10688716

And the irony


> A mix of miners and management, who were on a safety tour of the mine when the blast occurred, are among those missing.




And good luck to holders.


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## Who Dares Wins (19 November 2010)

A good interview with CEO Peter Whittal on TV here. Very calm and collected. He said he has no reports of fatalities but as he was saying that the ticker was saying "one dead". Real bad situation.


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## noirua (19 November 2010)

Reported by AOL that over 30 miners are missing. This is very sad and looks similar to the Strongman Mine explosion on 19th January 1967 when 19 miners were killed.
Shares are in Trading Halt and may now be virtually worthless.


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## Who Dares Wins (19 November 2010)

The 2 workers who walked out indicated that 3 more would follow who did not. Mine Rescue have not yet entered the mine at 2100hrs NZDT because of safety issues. Word is that "it could be days". PRC say there are 15 PRC employees and 12 contracators unaccounted for.

Yes Noirua, shares probably are worthless but dont think anybody is worried about that. Tucked my boy into bed a few hours ago and couldnt help but think of the families of those guys down below.


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## frankie_boy (19 November 2010)

Yes much thoughts to the families involved. Money is nothing when it comes down to the loss of life and sadness to all involved.


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## McCoy Pauley (19 November 2010)

The missus was watching Better Homes & Gardens earlier this evening.  Apparently Weekend Sunrise will be bringing "live pictures" of the "mine rescue" from 7am tomorrow.  Buncha clowns at Channel 7.


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## noirua (20 November 2010)

At this stage it is probably distasteful to talk about shares and cash; save to note that Pike River Coal Limited is a market quoted company and the Strongman Mine (later replaced by Strongman II and then by the Springhill Mine owned by Solid Energy Coal) in 1967 was owned by the New Zealand Government.


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## Smurf1976 (24 November 2010)

Just heard that there's been a second explosion at the mine this afternoon, about an hour ago I think, and that those underground are now presumed to all have died.

A terrible disaster for all those involved, their families, friends and the surrounding community. 

Also spare a thought for those who are still alive but will now likely lose their employment at the mine. It may seem a trivial concern, but for some that means not being able to pay the mortgage etc with all that entails. Better than being dead that is for sure, but it's still not a good situation.

A real tragedy in my view. And let's remember that in our technological world, we all depend in some way on those who undertake dangerous work such as mining. Someone has to do it.

One thing though, how to prevent something like this happening again? I'm thinking that if the gas was extracted prior to mining the coal, that would have three benefits. (1) Additional energy source in the form of coal seam gas (which is the same as natural gas) (2) elimination of unburnt gas escaping during coal mining, noting that the unburnt gas isn't too good for the environment (3) avoid future disasters such as this one. 

How practical it is to do this with every coal mine I don't know, but it's something that should at least be looked at in my view. It's already done as a source of gas in some places (eg Queensland), but my thinking here is to target areas that are also going to be mined for coal, and take the gas out before mining starts.


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## skc (24 November 2010)

Very sad indeed. The probability of 2 miracle mine rescues in one year was just too small


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## philly (24 November 2010)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just heard that there's been a second explosion at the mine this afternoon, about an hour ago I think, and that those underground are now presumed to all have died.
> 
> A terrible disaster for all those involved, their families, friends and the surrounding community.
> 
> ...


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## noirua (27 November 2010)

It happened before and they blamed the miners at the Brunner Mine Disaster at 9.30am on Thursday 26/3/1896 - 65 miners died.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunner_Mine_disaster

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/coal-and-coal-mining/7/2/1

http://christchurchcitylibraries.com/kids/nzdisasters/brunner.asp

http://folksong.org.nz/down_brunner_mine/index.html

http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~ourstuff/BrunnerDisaster.htm


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## noirua (27 November 2010)

It happened before and they blamed the miners at the Brunner Mine Disaster at 9.30am on Thursday 26/3/1896 - 65 miners died. [they said the miners were at fault due to a blown out shot that ignited coal dust and gases]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunner_Mine_disaster

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/coal-and-coal-mining/7/21

http://christchurchcitylibraries.com/kids/nzdisasters/brunner.asp

http://folksong.org.nz/down_brunner_mine/index.html

http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestory.com/~ourstuffBrunnerDisaster.htm


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## wayneL (29 November 2010)

Explosion no. 4 at Pike River and it seems the coal seam may now be on fire. 

I don't fancy their chances of recovering the miner's bodies.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10690745




> The Pike River Coal mine may have to be temporarily sealed after a fourth, powerful explosion sent large amounts of smoke and flames spewing from underground.
> 
> "There is quite a large amount of smoke coming out of the mine. This smoke has changed, it's no longer a gas fire, it's obviously now a coal fire," chief executive Peter Whittall said.
> 
> ...


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## Who Dares Wins (13 December 2010)

PRC has been placed in receivership this morning.

This is despite Peter Whittal on TV 1 NZ on friday evening stating "it was premature to speak of receivership".

Well maybe but only by 2 days Peter.

This goes to show that CEO's and the like will talk positive sh*t and toe the company line right up to the last minute. 

i'll be making sure i'm at the next public shareholders meeting if there is one.


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## McCoy Pauley (13 December 2010)

Who Dares Wins said:


> PRC has been placed in receivership this morning.
> 
> This is despite Peter Whittal on TV 1 NZ on friday evening stating "it was premature to speak of receivership".
> 
> ...




The CEO might not wanted to have called in the receivers, but from the article written in The Australian, it seemed like the decision was taken by the majority shareholder in PRC.


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## Who Dares Wins (14 December 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> The CEO might not wanted to have called in the receivers, but from the article written in The Australian, it seemed like the decision was taken by the majority shareholder in PRC.




Yes you're right it was NZO that called in receivers but only after the PRC board advised them they could not meet the debt repayment agreement after the stand still period offered by NZO and BNZ. 

But 2 day earlier when asked if PRC had funds to pay all miners their entitlements including the bonus they were due Whittal replied "Oh, absolutely". 

This morning receivers are evaluating how many miners will receive money and how much. One miner walked out of the talks after being told he will get nothing.

Whittal must have known this, he must have.


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## noirua (11 May 2012)

Who Dares Wins said:


> Yes you're right it was NZO that called in receivers but only after the PRC board advised them they could not meet the debt repayment agreement after the stand still period offered by NZO and BNZ.
> 
> But 2 day earlier when asked if PRC had funds to pay all miners their entitlements including the bonus they were due Whittal replied "Oh, absolutely".
> 
> ...




Pike River Coal, it was announced last evening on the ASX, have sold their Pike River Coal mine to NZOG. The sum is $35m inc  $2.5m on start up and a deferred payment of $25m -- payments per tonne of coal sold will be at, up to $15 per tonne.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120510/pdf/426688032dq98b.pdf


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