# Will tomorrow's candle be red or white?



## nizar (21 October 2007)

Well I think all probabilities point to tomorrow being a sell off.

But Im interested in opinions as to whether the CLOSE will be lower or higher than the OPEN.
So, will we have a white candle close or a red candle close?

Will the bargain hunters come in or will selling lead to even more selling?


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## Aussiejeff (21 October 2007)

My guess - All Ords to drop initially by up to 150 points minimum. Maybe close down 75 or so, with a few more down days in the coming week (unless the Plunge Protection Team lower US interest rates by a further .5%).

Cheers,

AJ


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## nioka (21 October 2007)

The market will probably open lower because of Fridays US result but could recover to be almost neutral by the end of the day as the ever increasing fund money continues to look for a home. (But then I,m often wrong.)


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## nizar (21 October 2007)

Aussiejeff said:


> My guess - All Ords to drop initially by up to 150 points minimum. Maybe close down 75 or so, with a few more down days in the coming week (unless the Plunge Protection Team lower US interest rates by a further .5%).
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> AJ




LOL so the PPT lower interest rates now?


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## hangseng (21 October 2007)

Aussiejeff said:


> My guess - All Ords to drop initially by up to 150 points minimum. Maybe close down 75 or so, with a few more down days in the coming week (unless the Plunge Protection Team lower US interest rates by a further .5%).
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> AJ




"Plunge Protection Team lower US interest rates by a further .5%"

You have it in one, there will be no crash now the PPT has displayed the intent and will continue to do so.


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## Flying Fish (21 October 2007)

hangseng said:


> "Plunge Protection Team lower US interest rates by a further .5%"
> 
> You have it in one, there will be no crash now the PPT has displayed the intent and will continue to do so.




ABC easy as 123 same as PPt lol Don't get caught out, next week is a do or die effort, rates don't mean **** anymore ( just my ramblings though)


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## brettdale (21 October 2007)

There will be a big drop tomorrow morning without a doubt, the bargin hunters will then come in, and it will close the day up.


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## Nyden (21 October 2007)

brettdale said:


> There will be a big drop tomorrow morning without a doubt, the bargin hunters will then come in, and it will close the day up.




I'm not so sure on how big tomorrows drop will be - certain stocks will drop considerably, yes. But; base metal prices managed to hold steady with a rise; & let's face it - our market is *running* on resource stocks at the moment.

Our market does seem to have separated from the US to some extent - we rallied whilst they dropped just a few weeks ago? They rallied, & we dropped a little. Why is it that we *must* follow here? The US is irrational, & I at least hope that Australian traders have wised up.



Personally, I believe we'll have a rather neutral day. There's always China


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## insider (21 October 2007)

I think the question should be "for how long will the market fall for?". Will it be just Monday? what about Tuesday? Wednesday? and so forth...


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## IFocus (21 October 2007)

I get the feeling every one is expecting another bounce, there seems more confidence this time, another buying opportunity........... if this keeps up then its looking more like a short to me.

I wonder how many cockroaches are to come out.

Focus


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## Sean K (21 October 2007)

IFocus said:


> I get the feeling every one is expecting another bounce, there seems more confidence this time, another buying opportunity........... if this keeps up then its looking more like a short to me.
> 
> I wonder how many cockroaches are to come out.
> 
> Focus



I think red but it will be short lived. 

People will be buying the dip, perhaps me. Too much money floating about and expectations of a rate cut to keep the consumer afloat. 

Cockcroaches may be limited to the financial services sector overexposed to dodgy loans etc. Much of this is already factored in, IMO. 

Longer term, I'm still mighty concerned with the consumerists western imperialist human.....

BRIC etc is still an unknown quantity IMO, but I am backing them (especially China) to keep Australia afloat for some time.


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## enigmatic (21 October 2007)

I can see the DJI dropping again on monday arround 200+ points.
we will definetly drop atleast 200 starting arround 120-150 on open, most likely falling all day. following that with a drop tuesday much smaller in the 75-150 range but still enough. not to sure about wednesday although im backing for a drop on wednesday too or maybe a small rise


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## brettdale (21 October 2007)

enigmatic said:


> I can see the DJI dropping again on monday arround 200+ points.
> we will definetly drop atleast 200 starting arround 120-150 on open, most likely falling all day. following that with a drop tuesday much smaller in the 75-150 range but still enough. not to sure about wednesday although im backing for a drop on wednesday too or maybe a small rise




I dont think its a possibility that it will be that bad.


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## Ken (21 October 2007)

May I remind everyone who reads this....

That we all have more time than we think....

The market has rallied yes.... but is it worth selling all those capital gains you have made since August 10 and paying tax whilst missing out on dividends?

For the day trader the volatility is great, but for long term investors I think backing your knowledge, and seeking alternative advice is best.

The sky was falling when MBL was $60 2 months ago. People were calling for $30.  It is up $20....

I am tempted to turn the screen off untill xmas, but I dont want to miss any bargains.


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## saichuen (21 October 2007)

My guess is that it will close in the red tomorrow. It is hard to believe that the fall in the US market on Friday will have little or no impact on us here (ASX). However it will be minimal.

ASX has recovered very well since the fall in mid August and has been running pretty hard since then. This is a correction or pullback needed and I was kinda anticipating for it.

My opinion, it will be a good time to pick up some bargains again. 

Happy trading!


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## golddigger (21 October 2007)

I say tomorrow the market will drop early, but i,ll be waiting with cash in CFD a/c for short term bouces like ZFX NAB WBC , all down last week & with divs. in the near future . I don,t think the sky is going to fall as in 87 but some players will so there will be some caution at first. Most of tomorrow's trading has been factored in with selling off last week.   Also all the short sellers will have to buy some time soon this week.


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## alankew (21 October 2007)

Dont think i will be as bad as some expect but will be down still.Does anyone have info on the volume since last correction-what I am thinking is that if volume is down,it could be that Mums and Dads are still out of the market and that people that have been buying are a bit more experienced and used to what will happen and not panic-I am playing it cool and going to White Water World!Will be looking at the Giant Drop(a ride at Dreamworld)and hoping my shares dont emulate it.


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## Whiskers (22 October 2007)

I was anticipating a bit of a retrace wed DOW, thur XAO. I was intrigued by wavepickers explination as to why it did not happen here. 



> It was clearly evident yesterday that the rally of the Wednesday arvo to late yesterday was a dud. Looking at the pattern on a micro level on an intraday chart it’s quite easy to see that the rally was a an EW double zigzag pattern which means it was corrective and not impulsive, as such the decline of today comes as no surprise.




A dud rally!  Wavepicker, does this mean the buyers thought they were getting a bargain and the realisation that they overbought didn't hit til the next day?

Gold, while off it's high is still up there. The $A falling back a bit against the $US, base metals and U holding firm. All in all, since we are riding a resource boom and those factors have improved in our favour marginally if anything and as many have previously pointed out that ain't going away overnight, I don't see a big fall here, more of a change of trend... a sideways motion, consolidation more than down, for a few days.

That is more physiological than technical analysis. Geeez, I hope I got this right.


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## Bush Trader (22 October 2007)

hangseng said:


> "Plunge Protection Team lower US interest rates by a further .5%"
> 
> You have it in one, there will be no crash now the PPT has displayed the intent and will continue to do so.




Imagine the long term damage to the US$ this will cause, the exits may be jammed by bodies, the gold bugs may have their wishes come true and the chinese will have to have a serious look at their own currency valuation.


Cheers


BT


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## nizar (22 October 2007)

Several companies have recently announced trading halts.
About 5 or 6 in the last half an hour.

What a smart way to protect your shares from a slaughter !


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## nioka (22 October 2007)

nioka said:


> The market will probably open lower because of Fridays US result but could recover to be almost neutral by the end of the day as the ever increasing fund money continues to look for a home. (But then I,m often wrong.)




Well I was wrong and I have a sea of red to prove it. Didn't buy anything as it did not fall low enough on the ones I put a very low price on, just in case. Another day tomorrow and of course again the following one for it to come good again and be pushed higher by that fund money looking for a home.


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## overule (22 October 2007)

Any idea if tomorrow will be any better ?
I am planning to buy ZFX or are there other bargain i should look for ?

Thanks!


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## halfwheel (22 October 2007)

If Dow Futures is much of an indication it will be red again! Dow Fut down 108pts and FTSE 100 down 100pts. BHP london down 4.31%. Here we go again.


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## overule (22 October 2007)

If that's the case. Then, ZFX looks like a good bargain for me.

What do you guys think ?


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## nikki (22 October 2007)

i vote for pink 

that's charting for those of us who are colour blind!


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