# AJL - AJ Lucas Group



## Dutchy3 (26 March 2006)

Hi Analyst

From the AVJ thread here's the AJL chart that might (sic) make the most sense.

Monthly chart - some 'tails' appearing and if March cant hold up this might indeed be some sort of turning point. Very long bow though and much better LONG plays out there too.

Not a buy for me. Indeed as I would not put on my watchlist at this juncture. I do like to see a reasonable 'basing' pattern develop after such a decline on a stock.


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## TheAnalyst (26 March 2006)

Thx Dutchy

I am trying to get good at picking turning points before they actually happen but have started to realise it is a bit energy sapping.

What do you mean by the tails appearing?? is this the longer tails appearing on the bodies of the candles from their intra day lows and the closes being above the daily low range??


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## Dutchy3 (26 March 2006)

Hi Analyst

Yes ... that's right.

Remember the chart above is monthly so the daily and weekely detail is summarised. All depends on the term of an investors view. I tend to hold positions for weeks/months so a monthly chart is a little too lacking in the finer detail for me. I actually take positions based on a weekly chart and use the daily to fine tune entry positions and exits.


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## yogi-in-oz (26 March 2006)

Hi Dutchy,

AJL ..... that hammer in the monthly chart,
includes a nice v-bottom on the daily chart,
on the lower extreme of a rounding bottom.

A few key dates to watchover the next month
or so, which may give us lift-off:

31032006 ..... minor changes ... finance-related???

03042006 ..... minor cycle

11042006 ..... significant and positive news???

14042006 ..... negative spotlight on AJL???

28042006 ..... significant and positive ... finances???

02052006 ..... significant and negative news???

12-15052006 ..... minor and positive cycle

17052006 ..... minor and positive news???

24052006 ..... 2 significant cycles here ..... finances???

31052006 ..... minor news???

happy days

  yogi


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## TheAnalyst (26 March 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi Dutchy,
> 
> AJL ..... that hammer in the monthly chart,
> includes a nice v-bottom on the daily chart,
> ...




Hi Yogi

Whats the substance behind these dates as i am interested in AJL at the moment as well as SUN. 

cheers


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## yogi-in-oz (26 March 2006)

..... dates determined by Gann's astrostuff,
natural cycles of our solar system ..... a
cosmic clock, if you wish.

happy days

 yogi


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## TheAnalyst (23 April 2006)

This baby is shooting up hehe


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## alankew (8 February 2007)

Might not be shooting up at the moment but  might be worth watching this space


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## alankew (9 February 2007)

Any chartists got any comments on AJL,i havent bought in yet but think it looks interesting.No comments and i will start hassling you!


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## Col Lector (27 June 2007)

AJL is 70% holder of the Gloucester permit with Molopo 30%. Good proximity to high gas-demand Newcastle mkt. Early drilling for CSM with promising results announced this morning  (MPO ann.).


> The Gloucester Basin permit is located approximately 100km north of Newcastle, where gas prices could exceed other major east coast markets such as Sydney and Brisbane. The permit covers an area of 1,050km², with over 200km² of prospective coal measure sequence






> Preliminary core analysis indicates a gross coal thickness of approximately 10.8m in several coal seam splits, with 3 coal seams greater than 2m thick in this hole. The partially penetrated coal seam at the base of the hole had a thickness of at least 4.0m. On visual inspection, the seams contain predominately bright, vitrinite rich, highly cleated and fractured coal with little cleat mineralisation. Coal core and gas sample testing is in progress, with early gas content results showing these coals are gassy.
> On the basis of the above intersected coal thickness and preliminary gas content results, the CBM potential of this coal seam sequence is very encouraging.


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## Col Lector (12 July 2007)

AJL 's core operations are in engineering& construction /utilities management/drilling services. Involved in directional drilling & pipeline construction for water/gas etc Growing its focus on Coal Seam Gas (CSG) industry.
Has been sitting on the Gloucester CSG project  (see prev.post above) for a while. That it is now actively exploring spices up this profitable "services company".
Initially AJL were cautious not to "talk-up" Gloucester's potential....even issued anns within last 6 months  to stress this; Sounding markedly more upbeat recently & have just raised $25mill to accelerate the project (convertible secs) Currently drilling a second hole.
Mkt Cap 123 mill approx. Last $2.35.
Previous years earnings (5.7cps 2006) have been disappointing due to the company's exposure to projects that didnt eventuate or were delayed (ie, Rioters at Goro nickel pipeline construct). The upcoming FY07 results should be big improvement.Aspect/Comsec is forecasting +149% to 14.2cps for pending FYO7 results. And +11% to 15.8cps 08 (08PE approx 15)

Recent SP buoyancy . Not huge volume but reluctant sellers.Ticking over.
Difficult to set a target price for AJL given a growing cashflow  from existing diversified business base, is additional to the upside potential of Gloucester.
*Ramp Warning:I own shares & tipped AJL in the current competition.


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## Col Lector (13 September 2007)

Excerpts From Today's Broker Call
Thursday, 13 September 2007

AJL - AJ LUCAS GROUP LIMITED 
ABN Amro rates AJL as Buy - Initiation of Coverage - The broker has initiated coverage with a Buy rating as it sees scope for the company's drilling division to more than double earnings in FY08. 
It also expects the gas and water pipeline operations to perform strongly given spending in the sector should remain high. 

Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $2.53 Difference:$0.51 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AJL meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.21. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0


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## Col Lector (15 October 2007)

AJL gaining more followers in the market...not so at ASF it appears.  CS gas project Gloucester continues to raise eyebrows in anticipation of confirmation of the extent of the gas-find. AJL's full services to the coal/csg industry in full demand; and other sectors too...eg, the
gas pipeline project announced today.


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## Col Lector (15 October 2007)

AJL is vertical-integration in action in the Coal-Seam-Gas industry. Have long experience at drilling/gas recovery/pipeline construction. Also a history of alliances with major utility/energy operators.
a  share to consider if looking at the CSG or energy infrastructure sectors. Mkt Cap 190mill.
A twelve month perspective below...
Plenty of sp growth but Gloucester project remains a dark horse....how much has been/should be priced in?


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## Col Lector (31 October 2007)

AJL's Gloucester project progress report today very promising. Hidden amongst the heap of quarterlies.
Good gas content/composition; widespread resource apparent. Large tenement comprising all of the Gloucester Basin,, which includes both Stroud & Gloucester townships within.
Development decision close - anticipated within next couple of months once extent of gas resource is clarified. 
Potential for AJL to utilise theit CSG (&pipeline) capability to fast-track development cost-effectively.
Potential for Gloucester to be spun-off.



> 31 October 2007
> Australian Stock Exchange Limited
> Via Electronic Lodgement
> Gloucester Basin Drilling Update
> ...


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## Col Lector (4 November 2007)

AJ Lucas (AJL) is proving up gas resources at its Gloucester Basin CSM project where in JV with MPO (30%). This encompasses a large area that includes both Stroud & Gloucester townships. Indications suggest it could be a highly significant project with potential to supply gas to the Newcastle/Sydney market.
AJL is investigating develpment options through dedicated business arm Lucas Energy.
AJL is a vertically integrated CSM operator with 48+ drilling rigs, pipeline building capability etc. 
Significantly, AJL has historic ties to AGL....has been preferred contractor on a range of AGL (& other projects); one of the directors,Garry O'Meally was formerly AGL Gen Manager.
AGL has been constrained by reliance on others to supply gas and to meet power demands. They have stated that it considers securing future generating capacity as a priority. 
Gas-fired power stations are in vogue. Origin's Darling Downs 400MW gas-fired power-station is publicised as Co2 efficient....equiv to taking 200 000 cars off the road vs conventional coal.
To my speculative point....
Is AGL positioning itself to ann a gas-fired powerstation for Sydney/Hunter??....And towards this, are they in the process of firming up long-term gas resources...& development capability, targetting both SGL (both Camden, then Hunter projects) and also AJL??
Plenty of synergies exist for all parties if AGL was to coordinate such an arrangement .


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## james99 (4 November 2007)

I think that regardless of whether you are right Col, the MPO share price is the one that will benefit most from the Gloucester Basin project, at least in the short term. Although MPO has a lesser share in it, its lower share price (.195 - .22 av over last week or so) means a small success in the basin has potential for a substantial percentage increase; cf the large rise necessary for a similar percentage with SGL (SP .415) and AJL (SP 3.37).

I have put to one side the capitalisation, number of shares on issue and potential returns, because those factors tend to be more relevant to longer, not short, term share prices. I have also put to one side the other projects of MPO and AJL, because both have other substantial projects. I would accept that in the long term, if AJL has an infrstructure interest as well, then obviouly that will be an extra benefit to it.

It is probably fair to say that all three have significant potential, and I think that trading styles may determine the best investment for each shareholder.


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## Col Lector (4 November 2007)

James...not sure you can assume other players/investors will disregard the factors you mentioned and focus only on the nominal sp numeral.
Consider this.....
MPO Mkt cap $178mill (@$0.20)
AJL mkt Cap $184mill (@$3.37)

MPO yet to make a profit. Forecast earnings...?
AJL (Comsec/Aspect figs) 
eps07 11.8cents PE 22.5; 
eps08 21.0c PE 16; Growth 78%;
eps 09 32.5c PE 10.4; 54%
eps 10 28.1....

Significantly, this income is generated independently of AJL's Gloucester (& QLD) potential gas production assets..! 
We are comparing  apples and abalone here; although I must admit to lacking a full knowledge of MPO's other projects.
However, it must be considered that all AJL  non-gas-production sectors are growing - contributing to current earnings & growth projections ...eg pipelines, directional drilling, water projects etc.
These earnings at least underwrite the sp of AJL and justify the current $3.37sp & $184 mkt cap. 

Difficult though to place a confident value on sp until the full extent of AJL/MPO Gloucester reserves are spelt out ( next couple of months). 
The value of SGL may become apparent in this time-frame also, given evident positioning there, and may help decide AJl's ultimate value.
I'm tipping a further positive rerating.... but then, I do hold a few of these..


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## james99 (5 November 2007)

Col, all three companies, as I indicated, have potential. MPO has a variety of other and arguably more important projects than the basin.

I agree that not all investors will disregard fundamentals, but that will not necessary deter investment in either. They are at different stages of the cycle. Both have prospects and good management. My money is with one, and yours is (I infer) with the other.

You and are are in essence talking about different things. I am referring to short term market reaction and you are talking about longer term aspects. I think in the long term both are excellent. No doubt the market will determine the short term result. We could both be wrong or partially right ;-).


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## Col Lector (23 November 2007)

AJL's Chairman's Address (& presentation) today extremely positive. Well worth a read.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071123/pdf/3160hhtcsxnlz5.pdf
 Forecasting a 70% increase in revenues this year and improved margins. Expansion plans well underway. Fingers in a lot of strrategic pies.
Looks like they will spin off Lucas Energy (CSG assets including Gloucester & Walloon). Considering powerstation adjacent site &/or pipeline to Hexham. Talking to potential offtake parties.
Has corrected recently after a strong run. IMO this is one for the bottom drawer. Holding & accumulating on dips.


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## Col Lector (23 November 2007)

Gas content 12 to 20m3/t and flows proving very promising from initial wells within large tenement. Augurs well for 70% AJL & 30% MPO.



> MEDIA RELEASE
> Gloucester Project Update – Gas Production Commences and Expanded Pilot Announced
> 23 November 2007
> Molopo announces today that its LMG03 coalbed methane (“CBM”) well within the Stratford Production Pilot in the Gloucester Basin has commenced initial gas production at a strong rate of 358,000 standard cubic feet per day (scf/d). Production continues to build on a daily basis as the water levels are reduced.
> ...


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## Col Lector (9 January 2008)

Currently AJL-watchers are fixated on the soon to be released independent reserves report for AJL's Gloucester Coal-seam project. Confirmation of success at Gloucester could open the way for some major expansion energy/electricity projects to flow. 
Note Babcock & Brown's involvement in recent AJL discussions with Sydney Gas where  they are said to be advocating that AJL take management control of SGL. 
Definitely a vote of confidence in AJL. With plenty of stategic possibilities attached....... particularly given the imminent privatisation of NSW electricity assets....and the likely move to the more greenhouse friendly gas-fired generation to meet e.coast demand (in a carbon-credit environment).
Initial indications are that Gloucester gas resource is significant...talk is of local power-generation; and also pipelining gas to the nearby high-margin Newcastle market. These could expand if reserves exceed expectations &/or other parties become involved.
AJL's diverse engineering & construct capabilities must be considered a big positive should Gloucester be fully developed. all AJL divisions will be available to be utilised ....water; oil/gas; csg; electricity infras; drilling; pipelines; engineering &construct....with benefits to both project costs, &  AJL's revenues.


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## pointr (9 January 2008)

Yes Col Lector, I think it is a potentially very good news story in the making in the Gloucester Basin. I hold some AJL and some MPO. I posted in the ASX chat forum on Saturday regarding an article in the Newcastle Herald about CBM projects in the Hunter Valley and Gloucester particularly. I also noted a few weeks ago a NSW Gov't Dept advertising for a geologist to work in the assessment of CBM projects in the area. I think these things indicate that "real" things are happening in this area, not just exploration hype! I also have a few SGL shares, it would be nice to get back into the black with them. pointr


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## michael_selway (9 January 2008)

pointr said:


> Yes Col Lector, I think it is a potentially very good news story in the making in the Gloucester Basin. I hold some AJL and some MPO. I posted in the ASX chat forum on Saturday regarding an article in the Newcastle Herald about CBM projects in the Hunter Valley and Gloucester particularly. I also noted a few weeks ago a NSW Gov't Dept advertising for a geologist to work in the assessment of CBM projects in the area. I think these things indicate that "real" things are happening in this area, not just exploration hype! I also have a few SGL shares, it would be nice to get back into the black with them. pointr




Hm interesting company

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 11.8 21.0 32.5 28.1 
DPS 2.5 175.1 0.1 0.1 *



> Business Description
> AJ Lucas Group (AJL) specialises in the engineering, design and construction of projects relating to horizontal directional drilling (HDD), pipelines, degasification of coal mines and well head monitoring, gas exploration, building and civil engineering services, and facilities management
> 
> Company Strategy
> AJL strategy focuses on improving the quality and maintainability of earnings streams, increase involvement in the growing Asian economies and leverage the Companys engineering expertise into sustainable services businesses. AJL operates in sectors where high barriers to entry exist and in which it sees opportunities for growth. Thus, AJL aims to be a niche, focused, vertically integrated infrastructure services business with an emphasis on the oil and gas, water and waste water, mining, property and construction sectors. In order to achieve its business strategy objectives, AJL has acquired on December 2004 the facilities management business of the Mace Group, with the intention to build a quality maintainable earnings stream. Further, the completion of the SEA Gas and Bass Gas pipelines will help establish a reputation which may aid AJL in securing several of the larger projects planned in the next few years. In the meantime, the company will attempt to secure small/medium pipeline projects to maintain a base level of revenue and work. Additionally, AJL plans to establish a solid presence in Hong Kong with the objective to secure additional projects in China. The company also seeks to capitalise on the buoyant coal sector by creating a service unit within the gas management division to provide a full service capability to clients in the coal and coal seam gas industries. AJ Lucas Group reported NPAT up 114% to $3m for the year ended 30 June 2006. Revenues from ordinary activities were $171.2m, up 130.4% from last year. Diluted EPS was 6 cents compared to (42.8) cents last year. The net operating cash inflow was $15.7m compared to an outflow of $6.6m last year. No dividend was declared.


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## Col Lector (9 January 2008)

Gidday guys...AJL holding up well in the face of a volatile market.  Small volume....as generally the case, but up another 1 % or so today. Functioning well as a "defensive" holding while this continues. There remains a constant demand but limited selling......shares are being held tightly in anticipation of events to come.....
Hard to place a target price on these guys given good revenue growth expected with all divisions firing, in addition to the difficult to quantify upside of Gloucester (& associated projects)


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## Col Lector (9 January 2008)

Micheal, FY2007 results (below) are a big improvement on the FY2006 figs  the extract quoted. This despite  events such as the Goro site riots impacting results. 
FY2008 results should give a clearer indication of AJL revenue potential ongoing from non-Gloucester operations.  Gloucester income potential remains to be quantified...with the pending indep.reservres certification being the next key step to calculating this.... I'm sure  more than a few trembling hands will be running over the figures..


> 2007 results announced Friday, 24 August 2007
> Highlights of the results are: revenue of $216 million, a 26% increase on the FY2006 ; profit after tax of $6.4 million, a 111% increase on the previous year.
> The company has announced a dividend of 2.5c per share, fully franked.



as compared to the quoted FY2006....


> AJ Lucas Group reported NPAT up 114% to $3m for the year ended 30 June 2006. Revenues from ordinary activities were $171.2m, up 130.4% from last year. Diluted EPS was 6 cents compared to (42.8) cents last year. The net operating cash inflow was $15.7m compared to an outflow of $6.6m last year. No dividend was declared.


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## michael_selway (10 January 2008)

Col Lector said:


> Micheal, FY2007 results (below) are a big improvement on the FY2006 figs  the extract quoted. This despite  events such as the Goro site riots impacting results.
> FY2008 results should give a clearer indication of AJL revenue potential ongoing from non-Gloucester operations.  Gloucester income potential remains to be quantified...with the pending indep.reservres certification being the next key step to calculating this.... I'm sure  more than a few trembling hands will be running over the figures..
> 
> as compared to the quoted FY2006....




Do you know whtis companyonly started to run since Aug06?

Before thenit was heading downwards unlike WOR fore example

thx

MS


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## Col Lector (15 January 2008)

Another piece of the jigsaw in place with yesterday's ann. of AJL taking management control of Sydney Gas.
SGL's tenements (prospective but mismanaged) stretch from SW Sydney  to Newcastle ("The Hunter Project") & nicely complement AJL's Gloucester tenements where reserves are pending. 
With methane reserves undercontrol/left in safe hands, the bigger plans can now be rolled out.
This AJL/SGL arrangment has been  done with the backing by BNB - a key SGL stakeholder with 2 board members. It has also been forced upon SGL  by the fact that under the terms of the previous facesaving 50% asset sale/supply agreement to AGL (ie,AGK) subsequent payments were dependent on confirmation of reserves size before a defined date and specified supply volumes. 
AJL is the white knight here for all parties....SGL particularly, but also BNB, AGK. I was surprised that AJL didnt head north on the news. The terms appear to offer considerable upside for AJL...IMO it is a reflection that without AJL's expertise maybe no-one would win, and expansion plans would have to be delayed. AJL holds the cards ...they are the ones with the highly sought expertise, contacts & equipment. 

Interestingly, on the back of this news FN ARENA today released an article "Strong Earnings Growth Suggests More Upside in AJ Lucas" that notes Intersuisse has called AJL a Buy on the basis of anticipated strong revenue/profit growth from all existing divisions, and for the blue-sky potential the SGL deal, & Gloucester tenements, bring
Intersuisse expect 08 rev of $350 mill, up from 216 in 07; Profit tipped to rise from 6.4 to14.6 mill....with further growth expected in 09 .

Read the non-price sensitive ann from Jan14 carefully...once again there are hints that big things are afoot...offshore ventures....maybe a spinoff...or...


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## Col Lector (15 January 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Do you know whtis companyonly started to run since Aug06?
> 
> Before thenit was heading downwards unlike WOR fore example
> 
> ...




Hi Michael...Combination of factors...including relative obscurity to the market. AJL geared up for some major pipeline projects 05/06 that were pulled and left them in the lurch time/costwise. Took a while to work its way through. Growth in CBM industry generally, but expectations for Gloucester, in particular have spurred the SP since then.


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## Col Lector (23 February 2008)

Superb half-yearly results from AJL reflecting the strength of the diversified business model. Coal seam projects where AJL operates as an equity-partner offer considerable upside. AJL are positioning for this...as is evident when reading between the lines of the actual half-yearly (21/2)& Analysis Presentation(22/2).
The media release below summarises...



> Record profit of $8.2m for six months to
> 31 December 2007
> Thursday, 21 February 2008
> 
> ...


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## Aussiejeff (25 February 2008)

AJL is up 45c or 11%+ right now on the 1/2 year results news. Thin trading so far though (likewise most stocks today). Should be good for the SP looking forward....


AJ


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## Col Lector (25 February 2008)

Aussiejeff. Sp response (up 9.5% to $4.16) was mainly due to today's ann....ie, excellent initial reserves for Gloucester with considerable upside. 







> ~ 525 BCF
> 1P 14.9
> 2P 170.2
> 3P 359.2
> ...




Also very bullish report from Baillieu out too on the back of these reserves...tho yet to see it myself. Comments particularly on the high strategic value of AJL's (&SGL's) NSW reserves.


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## Col Lector (17 March 2008)

Baillieu's recent report on Molopo website highlights how potentially lucrative AJL's 70% holding of the Gloucester Basin project could be....noting the 100% project "will likely have a terminal valuation (upon development) in excess of $1 billion..."
Noting that  the market cap of (diversified/profitable/dividend-paying) AJL is currently less than 200million.....



> E L & C Baillieu Stockbroking Ltd
> Molopo: Gloucester and South Africa developments increase valuation ranges
> 
> 
> ...


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## Col Lector (25 April 2008)

AJL's prospects are only getting rosier as the coal-seam gas sector booms and the coal industry continues to expand. The pending NSW power-privatisation and the flagged spin-off of Lucas Energy make thing even more interesting.
AJL continuing to attract strong buyer support on low volume... recovered ~25% over last few weeks to push back through the $4 barrier. A testament to the solid earnings profile & big upside potential of this company 
IMO the move into Sydney Gas was v.strategic and really spices up AJL's growth potential. The fit with the Gloucester project has huge upside and it cements AJL's position as a critical player, (as both resource-holder & as a key drilling/pipeline etc service provider)in the anticipated boom in NSW CSG sector.
Initially AJL was happy to pay 38c for their large SGL stake, later reduced to 34c as the sub-prime hit the markets. 
Interestingly SGL shares have (unexpectedly)been under pressure since then, hitting 23.5c last week.It appears certain that the broker debacles are to blame, in particular Chimaera. The publicised "rescue" by ANZ has had a significant effect on SGL's market depth over the last few days. The dumping of shares appears to have ceased and confidence is returning to the buy-side, as evidenced by SGL's ~40% appreciation this week to return to around the levels that AJL initially purchased...ie, 34c.
I hold both. IMO SGL's potential has been overlooked by investors due to the broker-related underperformance noted above; also debacles & bad management of prior years. AJL's expertise, management nous and good relationship with key stakeholders (eg, Babacock & AGL)will be on display as it seeks to unearth SGL's recognised potential.

And then of course there's also AJL's Gloucester Project nicely cooking away to keep investors interested....looking v.tasty IMO


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## pointr (26 April 2008)

I agree with your sentiment Col Lector. As a holder of AJL & MPO & SGL and a resident in a nearby area I would not be surprised to see further minor delays with the Gloucestor project as there has certainly been some rain up here and it has caused delays in the past. That said, such issues are minor as we see  the NSW CSG industry head onward and hopefully upward.


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## Col Lector (4 May 2008)

Giday Pointr, Not a bad week....! All time high for AJL and appears no barrier to further appreciation given outlook for sector activity, and the flagged spinoff of Lucas Energy....
The price paid for Origin (North of $1.50/GJ) gives an indication of what Lucas Energy may be worth.


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## TheAbyss (28 May 2008)

Surprised AJ Lucas hasnt run as far as the others in the CSG sector. They have a lot going for them and should be a major winner of the new QGC pipeline build which will add to their CSG interests.

AJL are the largest Australian coal and CSG driller. They have, 

■  cash flow from operating businesses
■  70% interest in Gloucester Basin, NSW _ Important with the new QGHL pipeline
■  attributable 2P reserves 119 PJ
■  drilling to increase reserves
■  100km pipeline required to market
■  15% interest & management of SGL

AJL’s objective is to prove up additional 2P reserves in Gloucester Basin and SGL assets and spin off Lucas Energy (CSG Assets) as a separate vehicle by calendar year end and commercialise the assets. Its operating businesses have the usual broad range of operating risks.


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## Aussiejeff (28 May 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Surprised AJ Lucas hasnt run as far as the others in the CSG sector. They have a lot going for them and should be a major winner of the new QGC pipeline build which will add to their CSG interests.
> 
> AJL are the largest Australian coal and CSG driller. They have,
> 
> ...




A more realistic wholesale gas price might help. The current scenario where the rest of the world appears to be paying around $12MMBTU while Oz producers get around $3 is crazy. It's no wonder QGC would prefer to bottle up and sell most of theirs overseas!! I bet most Oz producers are "fuming" at the price differential ATM.....

AJ


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## Col Lector (29 May 2008)

AJ, pointr, The A...
thought AJL was surprisingly subdued following the Petronas/Santos deal ann. given reaction elsewhere.
IMO  take some comfort from the fact that the deal values Santo's 2P reserves at $4.91/GJ of2P (widely quoted)
AJL's share of INITIAL Gloucester cert reserves of ~119PJ has a parallel value of ~$585 million. 
Importantly this without considering AJL reserves Qld & via SGL holding & the fact have been drilling furiously several months at Gloucester since this reserve figure released.
AJL total mkt cap currently ~300mill at $5.60....can be largely justified on basis of current non-production earnings (pipelines, drilling etc).  
IMO, eitherway the CSG projects &/or AJL earning businesses are not fully reflected by current AJL mkt cap. eg, Gloucester assigned 30%of 300mill mkt cap =$90mill vs inferred 585. 
The Santos deal infers an enterprise value for 2P Gloucester on the basis of initial reserves only that dwarfs that of the full profitable entity. 
Some would argue that AJL CSG assets deserve a further premium given stand-alone potential/proximity to key Newcastle/Sydney market.
Thoughts to comfort.


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## pointr (29 May 2008)

Hi Col Lector, 
                 my only concerns with AJL is why I have so few of them. But then your share dollars can only go to so many places. Both of the Gloucester players have been quiet for a while as far as announcements go. they are probably busy developing energy busnisses as compared to running PR / Spin enterprises


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## Col Lector (30 May 2008)

Pointr...would love some more myself but portfolio looking a bit lopsided as it is.
Can be sure that there is plenty of negotiating going on re AJL gas supply though. Concerned that they do not rush to sell/commit these assets too cheaply, but management have proved to be adept at deal making...if maybe a little (too) understated so far.  The CSG rationalisation has but started....
While the case for "Lucas Energy" spinoff seems easily justified on a valuation basis, it should not be overlooked that AJL's NSW assets, in particular are also v. strategically located....& growing....
*The SGL (AJL 15% earning25%) Hunter Project tenements have will be crossed by the announced QGC pipeline introducing new low capex fastrack opportunities. *AJL/MPO Gloucester Project controls the entire basin and is close enough to Newcastle to control options & supply.....eg,
1.Supply and build! own pipeline direct to  consumers or to connect QGC Hunter Power Station/nsw hub.
2. Build/supply own gas-fired capacity in JV (with??) onsite Gloucester/ lower Hunter
3. If fully proved & aggregated, SGL Hunter & AJL Gloucester reserves have major (&strategic) supply potential....and other possibilities....including maybe even NSW LNG could come into the frame.....:22_yikes:


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## Aussiejeff (30 May 2008)

Significant holder announcement today by *AJL* - increased holding of *SGL* shares through on-market purchases from 61,802,102 (15.35%) to 66,556,202 (16.54%).

Both companies up today (so far).



AJ
(I hold)


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## Col Lector (31 May 2008)

Quite (a) day...+17% with relentless buying in the afternoon. IMO a belated recognition of:
The strategic nature of AJL's CSG HunterValley reserves ie,Gloucester; & via the SGL.
Their v. strategic holding of SGL (approaching 27% if option conditions satisfied) .

Very interesting to see AJL quietly ann Friday that it has been in the market recently topping up with SGL.... Thats a big vote of confidence from the guys drilling SGL's holes.

A combined AJL/SGL would effectively control  coalseam gas tenements from Wollongong to Gloucester - both the Sydney & Gloucester Basins.
This proximity to Sydney & Newcastle reduces capex on expensive pipework (eg, QGC plan)and opens a myriad of options.
From a SG major's point of view, gaining control of AJL would secure a v.key position on which to build.
Eg, For QGC it would mean securing the "NSW hub" at the other end of a very long pipeline...as well as  pipeline builders, and a hell of a lot of drilling rigs & drilling expertise.
A longshot....especially since rapid rise recently, but I'm tipping it for the June Tipping Comp....to finish a nose ahead of SGL


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## grace (23 June 2008)

Picked some of these up today, thanks to the sad market.  Thanks for the posts on this thread and site.  I'm going to suggest that this was the stock recommended by The Daily Reckoning last week, as no other stock fits the description to my knowledge (see my post on the general csm thread).  

Someone has to build these new gas pipelines "in the pipeline".  AJL seems well placed to do this (given they are only one of two companies that build onshore gas pipelines).  Hoping they pick up some large contracts.

Also like their coal seam gas exploration prospects.  Here's hoping anyway.


----------



## ormond (23 June 2008)

grace
I think the true value of AJL will be reliesed with the diveesment of its csg
portfolio.Have seen a broker report with a 540 mill. valuation of its gloucester basin intrests alone. cheers ormond


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## grace (26 June 2008)

Can someone have a read of this....think it is in relation to AJL.  What do you think?  Also received some coverage last night too on AJL (copyright sorry).



> Every One of Those Companies Needs This Month's Tip
> 
> Remember what we said about coal-seam gas requiring a lot of wells? Santos alone plans to drill a total of 1,350 coal-seam gas wells over the next 20 years, liberating 4,200 petajoules. That's the minimum required to run its Gladstone plant. It'll probably drill more.
> 
> ...


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## TheAbyss (26 June 2008)

This is the company dexfription for AJ Lucas out of a ABN Amro Morgan report on CSG companies. AJL are the largest in this country so they are the obvious benificiary of the CSG industry maturity

AJ Lucas
(AJL.AX)

■  largest Australian coal and CSG driller
■  cash flow from operating businesses
■  70% interest in Gloucester Basin, NSW
■  attributable 2P reserves 119 PJ
■  drilling to increase reserves
■  100km pipeline required to market
■  15% interest & management of SGL

AJL's objective is to prove up additional 2P reserves in Gloucester Basin and SGL assets and spin off Lucas Energy (CSG Assets) as a separate vehicle by calendar year end and commercialise the assets. Its operating businesses have the usual broad range of operating risks.


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## grace (17 July 2008)

Good to see a new substancial holder Westpac/BT in there with 5.08%

Brendon Lau (in the Smart Investor mag) has a bit of a write up on AJL.  Conservative target of $8.50 for the next year.  So is that 12 months away, or sometime next year.

Anyway, fairly positive and says further upside if CSG assets floated off, and any reserve upgrade will increase target price.

Seems to think that it will be worth more as two entities - one of energy, one of drilling and pipeline services.

Tend to agree, as fairly hard to value at the moment.

John Deniz from Patersons says



> On price-earnings multiple, it's the second most expensive stock in the sector that we cover, but if you strip out its CSG assets, it's actually the second cheapest"




Hopefully, they cover more than 3 stocks.


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## michael_selway (17 July 2008)

grace said:


> Good to see a new substancial holder Westpac/BT in there with 5.08%
> 
> Brendon Lau (in the Smart Investor mag) has a bit of a write up on AJL.  Conservative target of $8.50 for the next year.  So is that 12 months away, or sometime next year.
> 
> ...




Sounds Good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 11.8 31.8 38.0 42.5 
DPS 2.5 7.0 8.0 11.0 *

thx

MS


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## Dukey (17 July 2008)

Ohhh Damn!!!
Have been checking out AJL grace since your recent mention of it somewhere on ASF. Dunno why they slipped thru my net before!
they have been VERY attractive this week - but a fast bounce and now we know why.   
# There were two notices posted that I saw - One for BT 5.08% and another for WBC 5.08%....   so it would seem to me that they HOLD over 10% now in total. And they got a great price I reckon.

I love the sound of the CSG spinoff later in the year, and they are set for BIG earnings increases this year over last.... comsec says 170 odd %... could be more.

Now I have to decide whether to bail from the RPM/BOW/QGC hunch - which looks like reaping sweet FA.... and buy these for Long term...
thinking...:freak3:
thinking...


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## jet328 (17 July 2008)

Dukey said:


> # There were two notices posted that I saw - One for BT 5.08% and another for WBC 5.08%....   so it would seem to me that they HOLD over 10% now in total.




Westpac is the major owner of BT. That's why the holdings are identical (it's just one holding, not two)


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## Dukey (17 July 2008)

jet328 said:


> Westpac is the major owner of BT. That's why the holdings are identical (it's just one holding, not two)




Yes - I stand corrected - both noticed are identical except for the holder name.....  *But why two notices for the one holding??*  seems strange to me.

If the second notice is correction to the first, then they should state it clearly in the title...

doesn't matter... still good news


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## Col Lector (18 July 2008)

> Good to see a new substancial holder Westpac/BT in there with 5.08%
> 
> Brendon Lau (in the Smart Investor mag) has a bit of a write up on AJL.  Conservative target of $8.50 for the next year.  So is that 12 months away, or sometime next year.
> 
> ...




Giday Grace....was that a "consolidation" we just felt?? Increased broker & funds interest bodes well. I think these guys will have plenty of options to realise  value of CSG assets whether they "spin-off" Lucas Energy  as planned or take another route.
Has been largely overlooked by many CSG stock porers....mainly due a relatively low-profile, & a diversified business structure that complicates direct comparisons with pure-players. Also off many funds radars as currently  outside the ASX300 (but for how long though?)
Mkt Cap $329mill @ $5.55. 
FY08: 31.8 cps; PE 17.5
FY09: 38cps; PE 14.6.
Paying dividends...!
Is classed as "Industrial Sector" company but more realistically an Energy & Infrastructure Services business ....2xgrowth sectors.....with a substantial bolt-on CSG asset(s) as a strategic bonus. Its this enterprise diversity that brings  AJL some deep competitive advantages not there with many other energy players.

An  investigatation of AJL potential value done by simple separating into the 2 entities via  assignment of all existing debt/assets/earnings to
A.  LSERVICES
Assigned full $329 mill mkt cap; all debt ~ $200.
Currently all earnings flow from services. Reasonably conservative forecast FY09 PE of  14.1 (Comsec) on eps of 38cps.
IMO sp justified under this scenario & debt could be supported given the strong order book & sector growth profile. 
B. LENERGY
Mkt cap..? What price when approached as an unencumbered pure-gas play...? 
Becomes an evolving game of totalling the petajoules &  applying the going $/reserves benchmark. With maybe some upside to reflect the strategic potential of the assets.
Gloucester Basin
QLD JV
Sydney Basin (SGL holding & deal)
Arawn Energy BC


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## Col Lector (18 July 2008)

This a  link to very recent (July08)report to analysts re NSW assets....Good valuation fodder....


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080708/pdf/31b23rxlg3pvzv.pdf


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## grace (23 July 2008)

Dukey, did you pick up those AJL before the trading halt?  

Acquisition of Mitchell Drilling with Nathan coming on board, and more drill rigs.  Super.  58 (AJL) + 31 (Mitchell Drilling) means a monopoly in the Industry!  

Acquisition is 5.6x 09 earnings.  I'm happy with that.

Not happy about no detail of offer of placement to current shareholders.

The purchase price for Mitchell Drilling of $150 million represents a 5.6x FY09E EBITDA multiple. The acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive for AJ Lucas in FY09.



> AJ Lucas also wishes to update the market on its financial year 2008 performance and outlook for financial year 2009. While the audit for the year ended June 2008 has not been completed, AJ Lucas expects to report EBITDA of A$37.6m. This will be impacted by non-recurring legal expenses of $5.2m. *Normalised EBITDA for the year ended 30 June 2008 is expected to be A$42.8m. In relation to the 2009 financial year, AJ Lucas expects continued organic growth in addition to the impact of the Mitchell acquisition, with forecast financial year 2009 EBITDA of $80.0m*[/QUOTE]http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080723/pdf/00862387.pdf
> 
> Investor Presentation
> http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080723/pdf/00862389.pdf


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## pointr (23 July 2008)

Ah yes Grace, offers to existing shareholders. I sent a letter to the chairman on this topic with a view to the spin-off of energy assets, still haven't got a reply. But still I suppose the commercial cost effective reality is to get funding from a few large players rather than deal via prospectus etc with lots of little ones. The only thing I'm particularly unhappy with about AJL is why I didn't buy more, my average holding price is $0.98, but they seemed dear enough back then. But I do think CSG is a STRONG fundamental investment trend and am very happy to hold a few companies with exposure to it


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## Col Lector (23 July 2008)

Mmmmm...Today's bookbuild price outcome will be very interesting. A floor of $ 5; but recent increasing instituational interest, & rising broker valuations (above $8 generally) bode well for a bullish book price.
The combined Mitchell& Lucas drilling stand to hugely benefit from both increased CSG and coal activity (check out the client list of combined entity) as well as water+ pipeline projects.

As an aside, was reading up on AJL's Arawn partner's in Canadian venture.... Cornelius & Bustin. These guys are non-conventional gas experts (Dr's in fact)with a knowledge of prospects that can only work to AJL's advantage. Grizzly & Red Deer prospects around Peace River Measures (SW of Fort St John) noted for high CSG prospectivity.
The shale-gas phenomena in North America is based on new horizontal drilling & fracturing techniques. The AJL/C&C tieup may open doors to more than the CSG acreage...must be plenty of demand for expert drill operators I'd imagine & opportunity to negotiate attractie terms...


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## Dukey (23 July 2008)

grace said:


> Dukey, did you pick up those AJL before the trading halt?
> 
> Acquisition of Mitchell Drilling with Nathan coming on board, and more drill rigs.  Super.  58 (AJL) + 31 (Mitchell Drilling) means a monopoly in the Industry!
> 
> ...




No  not yet grace

Have been busy getting back into full time work and scraping $ together for AJL.... a day too late.
Damn Damn Damn....


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## grace (24 July 2008)

Well that was all pretty quick....plenty of interest so they thought they would raise a bit more while they were at it.  
Placement at $5.30.



> The placement was conducted via a bookbuild process and completed at a price of $5.30 per share, which represents an 8.5% discount to AJ Lucas’ last closing price on Tuesday, 22 July 2008 and a $0.30 premium to the underwritten floor price. Due to very strong demand from both existing AJ Lucas shareholders and new investors, the placement was increased from an initial 5 million shares.


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## Col Lector (24 July 2008)

A good result Grace.....strong support @ ~$6 despite $5 floor & $5.30 placement.....  I believe base price  was maybe set a bit low given the predicted earnings growth presented recently ?? Would have liked to pick up a few at that price.
AJL set to reap huge benefits from new CSG customers (AOE, ORG, BLU...etc) & enhanced drilling service dominance. The high & ongoing demand will give them negotiation power going forward....


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## Col Lector (20 August 2008)

AJL followers...
The text of the ann released day is IMO highly significant ...read & soak it up ..
IMO a bold strategic move by AJL to tap the broadband roll-out. 
Cant believe it was released as non-price-sensitive....or that sp hasnt responded markedly...



> *Broadband infrastructure at ten times the speed and a third of the cost.*
> *AJ Lucas strengthens trenchless technology leadership through JV with Groupe Marais SA*
> World leader in trenchless technology, AJ Lucas Group Limited, has agreed with French engineering company, Groupe
> Marais SA, to form an Australian joint venture company to exploit Marais’ innovative one-pass, mechanised trenchless
> ...


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## grace (20 August 2008)

Yes, that announcement was very interesting indeed.  More potential for this little market darling IMO.


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## Col Lector (20 August 2008)

Helo Grace.... a potentially major move IMO. Trenchless tech is likely to come into its own as the broadband rollout nears. That it is patented & proven technology bodes well. Doesnt appear a rash decision.
As a diversification ploy from energy/energy services/infrastructure construction it reads well....and builds nicely on AJL's existing trenchless/pipeline division...
Might just print that ann out....


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## Go Nuke (20 August 2008)

Chart looks really good doesn't it.

IMO I see a pennant forming with some good volume and the MACD looking great!

Probably a real buy....if I had any money

Goodluck to those that hold.


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## michael_selway (20 August 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Chart looks really good doesn't it.
> 
> IMO I see a pennant forming with some good volume and the MACD looking great!
> 
> ...




Yep its a nice one, also has coal seam gas...

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 11.8 31.9 44.0 51.0 
DPS 2.5 7.0 10.0 12.0 *

thx

MS


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## Dukey (21 August 2008)

Well - the sp response came today! and a nice one - up 42c.

- thought I had mentioned on this thread that I bought in not long after my previous post... but it seems I didn't - maybe I mentioned it elsewhere.
... anyway - AJL seem to be a very sensibly managed company - the mitchell drilling merger and this new partnership make perfect sense - positioning themselves for a big future across CSG drilling; state of the art trenchless pipeline; + CSG acreage likely to be spun off sometime... all looking good for AJL.  
- nice to see some green after some hard days across the board recently!!
-D


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## grace (9 September 2008)

AJL trying to push through that $7 mark today, with the csg sector hotting up again.  Thought I would post a chart.  All time high is $7.12.  Chart looking pretty nice really.


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## pointr (9 September 2008)

I'm someone who leans more toward the fundamental than the technical. There are lots of good things about AJ Lucas. Its CSG drilling services are definitely in place at the right time. In its recent annual presentation it used a phrase something like 'now is the time to separate our CSG assetts to realise value and avoid perceived conflict of interest with drilling customers' I've read other posts saying that when this happens the true value of AJL will be revealed. I dont know when the 'now' mentioned above will be, but I'm looking foward to it. We have held these now for about 4 years from unloved dog to market darling


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## Aussiejeff (8 October 2008)

pointr said:


> I'm someone who leans more toward the fundamental than the technical. There are lots of good things about AJ Lucas. Its CSG drilling services are definitely in place at the right time. In its recent annual presentation it used a phrase something like 'now is the time to separate our CSG assetts to realise value and avoid perceived conflict of interest with drilling customers' I've read other posts saying that when this happens the true value of AJL will be revealed. I dont know when the 'now' mentioned above will be, but I'm looking foward to it. We have held these now for about 4 years from unloved dog to market darling




Yikes. Market darling no longer... getting hammered today - plummeting down to $3.55 ATM. I wonder what is causing this very sharp drop (with no bad news?) apart from the expected downturn in the economy?


aj
(I don't hold)


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## grace (8 October 2008)

Could this be the result of margin calls?  I am at a loss for why this dropped so low today, but I'm watching it carefully for a top up as I like the stock!


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## Dukey (9 October 2008)

I havn't been around ASF lately due to much work on and not much to say in this dodgy market.... but stunning fall for AJL today... I'm kind of thinking it might be margin calls too grace - the volume was high but not astronomical... maybe just the combination of margin calls + no-one game to buy on a day like today - so no support?

Could also be folks worried about a slow down in drilling... but I tend to think theres so much going on with CSG that they'll have plenty of work regardless.
Plus they still have their CSG reserves to flog
... the world still needs energy...even in a recession.

-  watching for a potential bounce tomorrow on this one. dunno if I'll be game to risk more $$ though at this stage.... crazy crazy market - all common sense goes out the window so ??????????????

any thoughts?


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## Bushman (9 October 2008)

Dukey said:


> any thoughts?




Stupid behaviour by punters. 

AJL has just come out and said it will buy 10% of its listed equity via share buy-backs. Best way to protect a very profitable business.


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## Dukey (9 October 2008)

Oh damn!!  I forgot about daylight saving and missed the open!!! 13% bounce so far.
AJL directors seem very canny - this buyback both boosts investor confidence & they'll probably make a motza to boot!!
"good thinkin 99"


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## joelc (12 October 2008)

Did anyone else catch the announcement on the 9th of Oct by Molopo in regards to PEL 285, which is AJL 70%, MPO 30%. Molopo states _"that in recent months Molopo has received several unsolicited expressions of interest by parties wishing to either acquire or assist in the development of it's interest in the Gloucester Basin."_

What are people's thoughts on this? Is AJL infact receiving the same offer or could they quite possibly be one of the parties interested to acquire?

Also on another note, within the AJL Buyback announcement on the 9th of Oct it states _"The Company has also secured several pipeline contracts
and is at present negotiating further significant work."_ But for some reason there has been no individual announcements regarding these pipeline contracts.


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## Dukey (19 December 2008)

joelc said:


> Did anyone else catch the announcement on the 9th of Oct by Molopo in regards to PEL 285, which is AJL 70%, MPO 30%. Molopo states _"that in recent months Molopo has received several unsolicited expressions of interest by parties wishing to either acquire or assist in the development of it's interest in the Gloucester Basin."_
> 
> What are people's thoughts on this? Is AJL infact receiving the same offer or could they quite possibly be one of the parties interested to acquire?
> 
> ...




Well it's happened - AJL said they were looking to offload Gloucester and they have.
Total $$ was 370 Mill - AJL's share = 259M$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Now Gloucester had 2P reserves of around 100 PJ last I remember and the price of 370M = about $3.70 per 2P PJ - which is astounding - so maybe they had proved up more gas I didn't hear about.

Now.... If you have a look at the total market capital of AJL today - it's about $$285Mill according to comsec. And has ranged from probably 250M$ to 450M$ over the last year with the ups and downs of the market. At todays MC - the rest of AJL's very profitable businesses are worth just $25 odd Mill.  And we know thats not true - I mean they paid $150Mill for Mitchell drilling, and their pre-existing drilling company was bigger... so who wants to do the math...?

  basically... todays market capital of $285M  - seems ridiculously low when you consider that these guys have juat pulled in $259M cash.... some of which will go towards retiring debt - (not sure how much exactly??..... anybody know / remember?) - but they will still have a HUGE wad of cash  PLUS some very profitable and growing drilling businesses PLUS the infrastructure side.

Something tells me that AJL should be in for some considerable revaluation - just as long as their order book remains steady as it appears to have done so far- thanks to the juggernaut of CSG exploration...

Punters... watch this space!!!!!!!!!!
The only downside is the lack of confidence in this market ... but then have a look at PES??

.... any thoughts from fellow AJL holders??   do you like the deal?

-D


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## joelc (20 December 2008)

Dukey said:


> basically... todays market capital of $285M  - seems ridiculously low when you consider that these guys have juat pulled in $259M cash.... some of which will go towards retiring debt - (not sure how much exactly??..... anybody know / remember?) -
> 
> -D




"_The group plans to retire virtually all of it's 54.4million in debt_" 
As quoted on AFR.com on Thurs 18th Dec, 2008 under the headline 'Asset sale boosts mining services group'.


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## pointr (6 January 2009)

The same puzzle continues, AJL sitting on heaps of cash, don't know if they have started their announced buyback yet( no ASX notices). Only positive views announced from this historically conservative 'announcer'. Strong CSM drilling presence, infrastructure, particularly water management sounding good. Share price doing nothing/drifting lower on piddling volumes with the average sale today just over 200shares.


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## resourceboom (6 January 2009)

yep, I reckon another case of throwing the baby out with all engineering firms in the bathwater, it will be interesting to know the cash backing after retiring all debt, I reckon its well over half.

also their recent announcements say they are still growing well and not suffering too much from the global crisis (currently anyway)


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## resourceboom (6 January 2009)

I forgot about the SGL sales too, I wonder when those $$$ will enter the companies coffers.

I am amazed at the number of companies who have still profitable businesses with close to or greater cash backing (after debt) then their market cap.

I guess this is how people can make so much money coming out of bad periods on the mkt. Unfortunately there would be probably be lots of people without incoming cash to capitalize on the situation.


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## pointr (7 January 2009)

All good points, probably everyones crystal ball is never as clear as their 'retrospectoscope'. I'm happy with most of the shares we currently hold including AJL. But I'd be happier if I sold them on the 01.07.08 and rebought near their lows


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## Dukey (29 January 2009)

Well - over the last couple of days AJL has commenced share buybacks which show a maximum of around 5.45 mill shares to be bought back over the coming months.... thats almost 10% of the 59Mill AJL shares in the market - so in theory that should allocate an extra 10% ... of what... enterprise value (?) to the remaining shares... can't hurt I guess. 
Wouldn't mind more news on contracts etc.
-E


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## pointr (17 February 2009)

So AJL continues to drift lower, a fair part of each days trade being AJL's buyback. Probably not much incentive to release good news if there was any, as they are currently getting more bang for their buy back buck with this falling share price. One would think that with the current and continuing interest in CSG, that the company that drills a lot of the wells and also builds pipelines would be in a  very good place.


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## Goldmann (17 February 2009)

yeah Pointr - agreed... i dont understand the negativity around this one at all... just no real interest...


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## Jonathan111 (21 February 2009)

Goldmann said:


> yeah Pointr - agreed... i dont understand the negativity around this one at all... just no real interest...




Hi Goldman,

There is alot of talk about the low share price, i think the factors include: about a Reedeemable Convertible Preference Share issue, VWAP, Spec Div, ann 8/12/08, and back back.. But i am also stumped..


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## Dukey (22 February 2009)

Jonathan111 said:


> Hi Goldman,
> 
> There is alot of talk about the low share price, i think the factors include: about a Reedeemable Convertible Preference Share issue, VWAP, Spec Div, ann 8/12/08, and back back.. But i am also stumped..




Any chance you could explain your thoughts on these factors a bit further Jonathan? - I'd be interested hear.
My opinion is it's mostly related to the general market sentiment rather than anything else. Business outlook for AJL should be pretty good with their strong focus on Coal seam drilling, pipelines etc. - which is showing no signs of slowing. 
In fact it looks like the Hunter to Qld pipeline is go!! - that would be a great contract for AJL if they can jag it.
-e


----------



## Jonathan111 (22 February 2009)

Dukey said:


> Any chance you could explain your thoughts on these factors a bit further Jonathan? - I'd be interested hear.
> My opinion is it's mostly related to the general market sentiment rather than anything else. Business outlook for AJL should be pretty good with their strong focus on Coal seam drilling, pipelines etc. - which is showing no signs of slowing.
> In fact it looks like the Hunter to Qld pipeline is go!! - that would be a great contract for AJL if they can jag it.
> -e




Hi Dukey,

These are things ive heard on other forums, but have not done my own research to find out if they are true or not:

_1. 
$300million realised in cash, and that is cash in the bank.
$50million will be used to retire debt.
$15millionish allocated for buy back.
Tax to pay on sale of assets? Anyone have any ideas on this, i am pretty sure they had these assets on their books at full prices, but lets be really conservative and say they will have to pay $40million in tax????
That leaves $200millionish in cash.
59million shares on issue this will be reduced to 55million or so.
Effectively the current market cap is covered by their cash, so at current prices AJL is a free call option on their business. 

2.
Just so I understand this you are proposing that maybe if there is a special divi coming up and some of the note holders know about it , then the devious bartards sink the sp to then be eligible for more shares to cover the $45 million of convertible notes.. Is that how it would work? So rather than giving out potentially 6 250 000 shares at 7.20 AJL they have to give out twice that..


3.
These convertibles were issued "just in case" the restructuring that saw GB and ATP651 put on the market didn't within the anticipated timeframe. As it turns out the breathing space wasn't necessary but without it there could have been pressure applied by potential purchasors of these assets - also AJL would have risked being lumped in same basket as other potential re-financing cos - sp hammered.
When the convertibles were being put together there was talk of a sp div to use some of the proceeds os asset sales - so the convert price needed a clause to re-adjust. That seems fine to me. With hindsight the conversion price of $7.20 looks ok. I daresay AJL would like to redeem these early (like now) as interest payable on these is north of 11% but I don't think this is allowed - but it's a while since I read the deed.
So, these convertibles are not having any affect on the buyback or the falling sp.
BUT - another series of convertibles that I think have been fully redeemed over past 12-18mths might be having a shadow effect, with those shareholders that converted feeling nervous and offloading into the buyback. It is quite possible that their risk profile is not as robust as the long-term equity holders in this company. As I recall there were about $20m of these convertibles - some would have cashed out before AJL sarted running and it may well be that this buy back will mop the rest up.
I expect we will hear about the sp div with the half-yearly.

4.
This sp reaction to this buyback is all too common these days. imo it goes like this - investor needs cash, looks at portfolio and decides to sell into a buyback - assumptions being made are that price will fall post-buyback and in the meantime sp is being supported. ie buyback fluhes out sellers, many of whom might well have sold other investments in its absence._



I hold a small parcel long term. (to replace my sgl holdings). 
Contemplating buying more..

If point 1 is true then i will go heavy.


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## jancha (23 February 2009)

Hi,
   Could someone explain why AJL are buying back 10% of their shares & why should they drop in price? If there's plenty of drilling work out there for them & they're reducing the numbers of shares by buying them back shouldn't that increase the share price not reduce them?


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## oldblue (23 February 2009)

Your theory's right as far as it goes.
The SP movement just says there are more sellers than buyers at present - including AJL in the buyers - and for whatever reason the sellers are keener to sell than the buyers are to buy.


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## pointr (23 February 2009)

Well said oldblue, unargueable logic. It was once said that the market is a very effective pricing tool. I assume AJL is to release half yearly figures this week, these may show the market to be right or wrong.


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## jancha (23 February 2009)

Thanks for that Old Blue But why does the company want to buy back the shares? Whats the object of that...more money in their pockets in the long run? And if what Pointers saying in regard to the market being the best guiding tool....would that suggest AOE won't come back with a counter offer for PES as the share price for PES have dropped today suggesting that. I know thats a different thread altogether but on those priciples would that be correct?


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## oldblue (23 February 2009)

I don't really know much about AJL but it suggests to me that they have cash surplus to their requirements and that they have no other, better use for it. That's the usual motive for a share buyback and, again in theory, it results in the profits of the company being spread among a smaller number of shares with a commensurate increase in the SP. Again, all other things being equal!

The fact that the PES SP has dropped would indicate that the market doesn't expect AOE to make a higher offer.
As usual, we'll have to wait and see.


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## pointr (27 February 2009)

I've had a casual read of AJL's 1H09 results today and found them to be positive and cautiously optimistic for their future. The language as is usual for this company is conservative. They have also increases the interim dividend by a reasonable percentage. The net result as far as share price goes has been a drop of about 3% last time I looked. Am I missing something here


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## pointr (2 March 2009)

Well AJL certainly dropped by more than 3% on Friday and another 12% today. I take a little comfort that the average of each trade today was about 1200 shares. The weak thing I noticed in the half yearly report was that if you took out the Gloucester 1 off gain, you also took out most of the 'cream'. Perhaps it is still as was said last week "the sellers are keener than the buyers".


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## Mad Mel (4 March 2009)

AJL bought back 500,000 shares (~10% of their total buyback) yesterday, by far the largest single amount yet.  Perhaps a sign that they think that the SP has bottomed out?  Or that they want to get on with it so they can start releasing good news stories and bring the SP back up?  Thoughts?


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## Dukey (4 March 2009)

The SP performance is indeed very mysterious to put it nicely - given the kind of volumes they are buying back?   
Who the hell is selling at these crazy prices?? Any ideas folks?

and why havn't the ASX issue a WTF?! notice. - not that it would achieve anything other than the standard 'no reason that we know of' response.

Company reports massive profit increase - SP plummets.... spells something fishy to me!
-E


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## grace (4 March 2009)

Dukey said:


> The SP performance is indeed very mysterious to put it nicely - given the kind of volumes they are buying back?
> Who the hell is selling at these crazy prices?? Any ideas folks?
> 
> and why havn't the ASX issue a WTF?! notice. - not that it would achieve anything other than the standard 'no reason that we know of' response.
> ...




Yes Dukey, I am scratching my head as well.  I didn't think we'd see the $2 in front.  Should we buy more.....or is there something leaking that is bad?

Rumour and gossip can destroy a share price.  I just haven't heard any goss though.


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## pointr (17 March 2009)

AJL released a very informative 'Investor Presentation' on the ASX yesterday-late. Also yesterday inside an origin energy announcement it disclosed that AJL has been chosen to build an 80klm gas pipeline in western Victoria. In the presentation they stated that they were going to sell off more assetts in 2010(they probably have enough earnings this year post Gloucester).Also in the presentation they stated that the  Gloucester csg project turned a 28.5 M investment into 380M, a nice return. THe presentation also contained continuing reference to building AJL presence in water management, recycling and ownership. So only good news still from AJL


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## Dukey (3 April 2009)

So now we see where at least some of the downward pressure has been coming from - Westpac / BT have been offloading shares over recent weeks - reduced their holding by about 600 000 odd shares.

Meanwhile AJL have been buying back nice and cheap, and then cancelling those shares they bought - so in the long run it should be good for shareholders... increasing the underlying value of each remaining share...
well thats my take on it anyway.

Might see some upward movement if WBC / BT has stopped selling...

There certainly seems to be plenty of drilling continueing in CSG sector, plus other big contracts for AJL like the desal plant in WA, so outlook should be pretty good - despite the nasty GFC.

- any other ideas out there on this one?


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## pointr (4 April 2009)

No fresh ideas Dukey. Anything released to the market has only been good. The company only seems to speak in conservative engineers speak as compared to mining spruikers speak. Currently during a buyback it would only be in their interest to release the absolutely necessary good news. I like AJL, if I had spare $$'s I'd buy more. I think it is well positioned in the services it offers. I'm more a investor than a trader and even my limited brain has come to the realisation that as well as the company, I'm investing in the markets opinion of the company. So it may take awhile for the market to turn its attention in a positive way to this stock.


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## Nero64 (9 May 2009)

Hi AJL holders, 

Looking into this stock and it looks promising with its cash, appreciable equity and low share count. 

Read a few pages of this thread as well. 

After selling Gloucestor does this company own any GSG assets? Maybe its lack of holding has caused the sluggish share price. You only have to look at BPT to see what happend after it off loaded its CSG assets to AOE. 

Its seems to have a 3-5 years of stable contracts on board but what is it doing with its cash. CSG or oil would be a good start.

Looks good long term provided it can use its cash well, but wondering if there is more down before up.


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## pointr (11 May 2009)

AJL does have other 'non conventional' energy assets, and has stated its intention to sell some more of these next year. Feels at odds with its drilling customers being a explorer/developer as well. I've only read good news from this company, I'm particularly interested in their business plans regarding water. When you invest in a company you are also 'investing' in other peoples view of the company and currently the market has priced this one down.  I'm wondering why they haven't been doing more of the 'buy-back' for the past fortnight or so. Any ideas out there amongst the clever and more experienced.


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## pointr (13 May 2009)

Ok so now I've read some news that I read as short term negative, depending on the state of the coal industry. Perhaps as they knew this was on the horizon the buy-back was stopped for a week or so, they can certainly buy-back cheaper today than yesterday. I still like the long term story of this business and the various business sectors they work in.


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## Nero64 (13 May 2009)

Thought the selling was an over reaction and I reckon stops got hit a long the way which made the free fall more apparent. Boy it certaintly did bounce from $2.03 though.


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## jancha (14 May 2009)

Sounds like AJL continues to try & drive the share price down with bad news & then the following day come out with corrections to scheduled works. Before announcing news to the ASX shouldn't they get there facts right & is this ecceptable with the ASX? After the cancellation of the buy back on 27th can the company then buy back again? Can anyone explain?


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## pointr (14 May 2009)

Hi Jancha, I'm a bit disappointed by this correction announcement today, hopefully someone gets something more than counselled over it. What ever happened to planned communication and proof reading. I wasnt aware that the buyback had been cancelled, I think they simply stopped buying for a while.


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## JTLP (14 May 2009)

jancha said:


> Sounds like AJL continues to try & drive the share price down with bad news & then the following day come out with corrections to scheduled works. Before announcing news to the ASX shouldn't they get there facts right & is this ecceptable with the ASX? After the cancellation of the buy back on 27th can the company then buy back again? Can anyone explain?




I don't think they cancelled the buyback. They were destroying the shares that they had obtained via the buyback so as it lessen the amount of securities on issue.

For what reason? I don't know...haven't followed AJL...just thought i'd help out.


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## jancha (15 May 2009)

Thanks JTLP. I misinterpreted the news on the 27th. They are still buying back. Over 3mil shares so far. I wonder what news they'll bring out when they finish buying.


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## Col Lector (2 June 2009)

Alan,
Shareholders are overdue for some positive pronouncements....maybe time for management to dynamically extract from their apparently entrenched bearish navel-gazing!! After all we are a prime-player in the booming CSG sector with a raft of strategic energy investments on the boil...
Maybe some positive news on these would be timely??

But Alan, are you capable of talking up the company? By this stage the market, and particularly your suffering shareholders, are WELL AWARE of your propensity for (& over-readiness to publicly admit to) stuff-ups, mistimings, the ability to sell golden-geese at the bottom of the market and to transact company-knobbling finance deals...
I personally feel the release of wrong information in the last report was unforgiveable...particularly when accompanied by another round of inappropriate venting to the market, seemingly just to accentuate the impact on the AJL sp., and the pain inflicted.

If unable positively invigorate the market, then may I suggest harnessing your "mea maxima culpa" to shareholder benefit...? by way of a VSD maybe?.
..ie, a Very Special Dividend ...whereby you liquidate your holdings and send a cheque to each of the faithful shareholders that have suffered by way of your actions at the helm.
Cheers
RS


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## jancha (2 June 2009)

Here Here!! Sounds like a great idea Collector. A little frustrating this company. Would the buy back of shares have something to do with lack of positive news & incorrect announcements which they should have be proof read or something before being announced. I to feel that this is a bit of a worry with management & lack of news.


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## pointr (2 June 2009)

Hi Col Lector, did you actually send that to Alan Campbell, if not you should. I'm also concerned that a company that has the engineering expertise to steer a drill several klms through the ground can't proof read an announcement. I'd also like to know why they are not continuing to 'buy'. I'm well and truly in the black with these still, but have given lots of dollars back to the market. Yes it is time for some good news and a rising SP or if they can't generate a return on that cash a VSD as you say.


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## Jonathan111 (10 June 2009)

Why such a large bounce? Its trading around $2.80 today..
Is there anything happening? Insiders? Pump and dump scheme? 

I think the last announcement was talking the business down a bit?

Why no buy back for a while? Saving cash for a TO or something?


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## pointr (17 June 2009)

Well Jonathon111, I can't answer your questions, I posed similar ones to the company by email last week but have yet to receive a reply.


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## pointr (26 June 2009)

Well I still haven't got that reply to my email, however AJL's price has jumped today by over 12% on a bit more than average volume. Where there is life there is hope.


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## pointr (26 June 2009)

So it closed around 15% up ,on its high for the day on about double daily volume of late. Is this just AJL having its 'moment in the sun' after being oversold or is something happening. Any encouraging rumours out there to cheer us long suffering holders I can't whinge too much about this one as we are still well ahead even apart from the franked dividends.


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## Jonathan111 (2 July 2009)

Hi Pointr,

It hit 3.44 today. Desalination plant, however a bot seems to have been buying for over a month now, someone may be taking a stake..  

Regards,
Jonathan


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## pointr (3 July 2009)

Hi Jonathan, 
                yes it's pleasing to see it moving ahead, I still don't know why they have stopped 'buying back'. It's interesting that you notice a buying pattern emerging. On a fundamental point they are providing drilling services to ESG, they appear to have mastered the art of drilling long laterals CSG wellls judging by the reduced time it takes as revealed in ESG's Bi-Monthly reports.


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## pointr (27 August 2009)

Another 'HOT' thread. AJL released its full year results today plus associated releases. They contained the expected '_mea culpa'_ revealed a few months ago. Still conservative language but positive for 2010 and very positive for 2011. An increase in the dividend was very nice. Anyone out there with more report reading insight have a view on this for the forum?? They talked about about an unsucessful restructure, but didn't say who and how many got the chop. There was also talk of other energy projects not yet ready for release to the market. This stock owes us around $1.00 so its no burden to sit on while its paying dividends and who knows there may be some capital gains ahead, just a question of how far ahead


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## pointr (28 August 2009)

At the time of writing this AJL has risen around 13% this morning, but still on fairly low volume. Perhaps some others are forming a more positive view after yesterdays results.


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## googs (17 September 2009)

what are peoples thoughts on this share?  It's gaining 4-5% daily for the last few days...what is this based on?


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## pointr (23 October 2009)

Yesterday in AJL AGM announcement there was notice of a motion to enable a buyback of up to 20% of their shares, providing no better use can be found for the spare cash. They also reserved the right to consider alternative capital management ideas. AJL are still releasing 'reviews' showing what they have done during the year and future capabilities, it all sounds quite good. Now what was that phrase from Tom Cruise movie 'Show me the money"


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## pointr (25 January 2010)

Do the sellers who have driven the price of this company down by around 25% in the past few weeks know something, or is it just general malaise and no positive news (make that no news at all) from this company for a while???


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## pointr (1 February 2010)

And so a profit outlook announcement that says apart from one off sale gains there isn't any profit and no dividend next time to boot. As usual a fair bit of potential positives mentioned for the future which all sound wonderful?? I'm starting to think that when you buy shares in this company they should throw in an ALP membership because you need to be a 'true believer'.


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## pointr (17 February 2010)

Yesterday AJL announced that a private equity investor had 'bought in' to Cuadrilla, this is Lucas's European holding company for developing non-conventional hydrocarbon plays in Europe. This venture will now be cashed up for exploration work for the next 3 years. The cash invest by the private equity firm is greater than Lucas's investment to date, so I suppose that points toward much increased value particularly if the geology can be sucessfully exploited. From memory the goal of Lucas is to exit it's energy ventures when the price and timing is right


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## pointr (6 March 2010)

Another hot thread. Yesterday AJL announced it had received the sale proceeds for some CSG acreage in QLD. From memory they received around 90 million dollars from an initial investment of 5 million. The money will be used to retire debt and put some banking covenants back in order + working capital. This announcement was made a few minutes before fridays close, hopefully this will put a floor under the sinking shareprice and from this time foward management might manage better


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## mccollr (26 June 2010)

Any thoughts on this stock.  I see it dropped nearly 15c in the last two days.  Was there news that I have not picked up on.

Rod


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## pointr (8 July 2010)

My thoughts on this stock. This engineering firm seems to be good at just that, seriously good engineering applied to drilling,pipelines,building,water and some energy development. The problem seems to be converting that expertise into profits and anything that the market recognises as worth. Today they have announced a JV with a Coiled Tube Drilling firm from Canada. The system has many stated advantages over conventional joined pipe drilling systems and is suited to coal seam gas drilling. It would be nice++ if AJL could actually do something that causes the market to price it higher. AJL is also involved in some non-conventional gas exploration in Europe through 'Calliden Energy' (name from memory ) The only profits they have booked of late have been from selling out energy projects they have developed so maybe at some point in the future there may be a dump of cash from Calliden and just maybe management has learned something from their mistakes.


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## frankblack (31 July 2010)

pointr said:


> My thoughts on this stock. This engineering firm seems to be good at just that, seriously good engineering applied to drilling,pipelines,building,water and some energy development. The problem seems to be converting that expertise into profits and anything that the market recognises as worth. Today they have announced a JV with a Coiled Tube Drilling firm from Canada. The system has many stated advantages over conventional joined pipe drilling systems and is suited to coal seam gas drilling. It would be nice++ if AJL could actually do something that causes the market to price it higher. AJL is also involved in some non-conventional gas exploration in Europe through 'Calliden Energy' (name from memory ) The only profits they have booked of late have been from selling out energy projects they have developed so maybe at some point in the future there may be a dump of cash from Calliden and just maybe management has learned something from their mistakes.




Hi POINTR,
just wanted to shake hands,
Your dedication to the  cause is outstanding.
For what its worth I believe things are about to change for the better.
I will be buying this stock at what I believe is the bottom.
If you also hold, I wish you the best.
Cheers.


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## pointr (2 August 2010)

Hi frankblack,lets hope that your prediction of things getting better are correct. There are so many things that should be right about this company, but I think the market has got so sick of management crying 'mea-culpa'. Lets hope it's good for all its shareholders, a return to paying dividends would be a nice place to begin.


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## frankblack (2 August 2010)

pointr said:


> Hi frankblack,lets hope that your prediction of things getting better are correct. There are so many things that should be right about this company, but I think the market has got so sick of management crying 'mea-culpa'. Lets hope it's good for all its shareholders, a return to paying dividends would be a nice place to begin.




I am not up to date on the company, and by the sounds of it, it is difficult to know what is really going on. 
With what I have heard about them in the past they are not all bad. They look a bit over sold, to me, and looking at the charts, due to bounce.
Best volume today for along time.
Nice financial report will make all the difference.


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## skc (12 November 2013)

Another drilling company hits the hard times.

AJL slashed EBITDA forecast for FY14 from $26-29m down to $12-15m.

What drives you nuts is that they only release the revised guidance after receiving a price query from the ASX when the share price tanked 50% in the last 3 months. 



> Since June 2013, the company has experienced a deterioration in business conditions and consequential pressure on its margins, but the extent to which those conditions have lead to a material guidance downgrade have not been known or able to be known to the company until the date of this letter.




WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP! Just by pure coincidence, they finish their guidance revision on the same day as an ASX price query?! Don't we have computers and real time accounting / ERP these days to know things like projected rig utilisation and costs in real time? Or may be there's a company policy not to revise guidance unless queried by the ASX.


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## qldfrog (2 November 2019)

What no post for 6 y?
Bade news and SP hit planned ahead as UK forbid fracking


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## Country Lad (2 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> What no post for 6 y?



Yes there are very smart people here at ASF.  I had a bit to do with this company many years ago and I was involved in a conference where one of their execs was telling us how to suck eggs while it was so obvious he really had no idea what he was talking about.  I decided never to even look at AJL. Looks like people here thought the same.


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## frugal.rock (1 March 2021)

No news here for a while.
Market clearly liked 2020 EOY   results announced this morning.

3 year chart.


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## barney (2 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> No news here for a while.
> Market clearly liked 2020 EOY   results announced this morning.
> 3 year chart.




Have to feel a bit sorry for the Punters who got caught buying the top of the roller coaster at 12 cents though.  

Company turned a $10 million 1st half loss into a $9 million 2nd half profit so maybe there is some hope for today's late buyers.


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## frugal.rock (1 April 2022)

barney said:


> Have to feel a bit sorry for the Punters who got caught buying the top of the roller coaster at 12 cents though.



More pommy government kneejerk reactions. The world has gone mad and the number 1 culprit is Biden.
Reactions to climate change are totally farsicle. Jackassrs.

(Orders to plug and abandon the only UK gas shale wells have been retracted)

No one seems to be interested in the mining equipment thing of AJL, or are they?.
🤔
It's just a steer clear one for me.
I should remove it from my watchlists... but I like lessons, either way 🙄


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## barney (1 April 2022)

Must be something in the air around MARCH with this one   Pretty nothing announcement as you say Rock.  

I know nothing about this fella, but they have a market cap of $68 million (higher after today of course)

They had a Net Loss of $3.3 million for their last Half year results but are expecting a good result for the upcoming Half

Cash/cash equivalents apparently +$7 million.  Its a "Yeah Nah" for me but who knows


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## divs4ever (1 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> More pommy government kneejerk reactions. The world has gone mad and the number 1 culprit is Biden.
> Reactions to climate change are totally farsicle. Jackassrs.
> 
> (Orders to plug and abandon the only UK gas shale wells have been retracted)
> ...




 i am interested   and cautiously cherry-picking in this sector  , but SO FAR not  buying AJL ( but that could change in the future )


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## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> More pommy government kneejerk reactions.....
> 
> (Orders to plug and abandon the only UK gas shale wells have been retracted)



I'd reckon it's a game of keeping their options open.
Its UK subsidiary, Cuadrilla Resources Holdings Limited, has been formally advised by the UK Regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority, that the NSTA is *withdrawing the notice it had previously issued *requiring Cuadrilla to plug and abandon the two shale gas exploration wells drilled at the PNR site.  The two wells will instead be temporarily plugged and suspended until at least the end of June 2023. 

_The two wells are the only horizontal wells drilled and hydraulically fractured into UK shale rock.  The wells were drilled into the Bowland Shale to vertical depths of approximately 2.25km and onwards horizontally for a further 0.75km each through the shale.  _

_Fracturing and flow testing of each well confirmed the presence of a very high-quality natural gas resource, which flowed to surface from the underlying shale.  However, seismicity induced during the fracturing process, above the UK regulatory limit of just 0.5 on the Richter scale, meant that neither well could be fully fractured, or flow-tested, to properly assess how much gas might be commercially produced. _
_at its UK subsidiary, Cuadrilla Resources Holdings Limited, has been formally advised by the UK Regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority, that the NSTA is withdrawing the notice it had previously issued requiring Cuadrilla to plug and abandon the two shale gas exploration wells drilled at the PNR site.  The two wells will instead be temporarily plugged and suspended until at least the end of June 2023.  _



> The two wells are the only horizontal wells drilled and hydraulically fractured into UK shale rock.  The wells were drilled into the Bowland Shale to vertical depths of approximately 2.25km and onwards horizontally for a further 0.75km each through the shale.





> Fracturing and flow testing of each well confirmed the presence of a very high-quality natural gas resource, which flowed to surface from the underlying shale.  However, seismicity induced during the fracturing process, above the UK regulatory limit of just 0.5 on the Richter scale, meant that neither well could be fully fractured, or flow-tested, to properly assess how much gas might be commercially produced.




Sounds like Putin has shaken up the dreamers in the UK Energy department, to me.

((just _as a footnote, the only measured fracking event in Australia was achieved by Geodynamics, which created a 2.3 on the open ended scale event, when trying for hot rock geothermal testing, in the Innamincka Basin_)). Seismic is a log scale.


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## frugal.rock (1 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Sounds like Putin has shaken up the dreamers in the UK Energy department, to me.



Russia and China have the world by the short and curlies. Just wait till India joins in...

Stupid politicians that couldn't organise a BBQ outside a butchers shop have just let it happen over the years.  
Aus has no excuse, we could've been (a contender) nearly totally self sufficient.... I'm a communal hippie at heart 😋😘


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## barney (1 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm a communal hippie at heart 😋😘





"I bring you love" ..... "Break it's legs"  ...... lol   Thanks for the laugh Rock


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## frugal.rock (23 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Sounds like Putin has shaken up the dreamers in the UK Energy department, to me.



Dreamers have turned into screamers.

8 April 2022 
UK Energy Security Strategy – Review of Moratorium 
on Shale Gas 

AJ Lucas Group Limited today welcomed the announcement by the UK Govt. that it “remains open-minded about onshore gas reserves and has commissioned an impartial technical review on shale gas by the British Geological Society to consider any further scientific updates on seismicity that the Govt. ought to consider”.

Watching with popcorn. 
If they start fracking again, they might just have a few more Isle's... the place is pockmarked underground from 
"ye olden days" shafts.


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## frugal.rock (21 July 2022)

I can see the UK guv backflipping here...
Fracking will be a go, probably.
Shale licences laying dormant and unusable were going to be exited.

Mid June announcement states;
"Spirit Energy Withdraws Notice to Exit 
Lancashire Shale Exploration Licences"
in a twisty turn of events.
 I'm quite sure the guv quietly told 'em to withdraw the notices... too much paperwork and red tape to get them going again, I'd say.

As we move into Summer, I really think the shite will hit the fan in Europe.
They're already up ship creek, energy wise.

What if Vlad really raises the middle finger flag?

Starting to think the geo political factors are greenlighting this stock, in my opinion only.
Not sure on micro FA, but macro FA is compelling...
Not held.


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## divs4ever (22 July 2022)

i am betting Vlad will  annoy the West again so much  they will do another 'circular firing-squad ' 

don't forget Russia  sells a bit of nickel and aluminum  , not so exciting in themselves .. but who has all the cheap excess energy to process them  ???


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

Chart update


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## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Chart update



this was the company I was trying to remember.  !!!


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> this was the company I was trying to remember.  !!!



It's a little like imdex and an oiler/ gasser all in one.
What could go wrong?
Unless the aristocracy falls... I wonder how Her Majesty is these days, apart from "old" that is.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> It's a little like imdex and an oiler/ gasser all in one.
> What could go wrong?
> Unless the aristocracy falls... I wonder how Her Majesty is these days, apart from "old" that is.



Vladolf is keeping up the pressure; the Siberian gas is not flowing



> "British households were told on Friday that their power and gas bills will increase from Oct. 1 by 80%.
> The so-called energy price cap was set at £3,549 ($4,189) per year, up from £1,971 over the past six months and £1,277 during last winter.”




Do something . Someone. Pretty please.


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## peter2 (29 August 2022)

The other UK gas explorer is *HHR*.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> The other UK gas explorer is *HHR*.



also doing well


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## InsvestoBoy (31 August 2022)

There was an article in the AFR today mentioning that if Truss wins the expectation is she will approve a bunch of licenses for fracking, offshore exploration, etc. (even though exploration would take a decade to result in usable energy for the UK) and mentioned AJL specifically as the owner of whatever UK fracking company.

So the AJL price and I guess HHR mentioned by @peter2 have become proxy bets on Truss win outcome?


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## Dona Ferentes (8 September 2022)

New UK PM Liz Truss will reportedly follow through on her leadership pledge to ditch the ban on fracking to allow shale gas extraction in places where it is supported by local communities

( _which, by the end of winter, they will support _)


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## Dona Ferentes (8 September 2022)

and I should have tipped this in the comp. (Truss was a cert)


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## frugal.rock (9 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Unless the aristocracy falls... I wonder how Her Majesty is these days, apart from "old" that is.



Turns out, she's not well  at all and has passed at the ripe old age of 96.
RIP Lizzy 🌼


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## greggles (23 September 2022)

AJL share price up 16% on news that the UK government has lifted its moratorium on fracking in England. UK government doing whatever is necessary to ease Euope's transition away from Russian energy, as well as attempting to lower spiraling energy costs for its own citizens.

Cuadrilla has been lobbying for this for some time. This is from the AJL Annual Report:



> Against the above backdrop Cuadrilla has been actively seeking to persuade the UK Government and the Oil and Gas Regulator to lift the Moratorium on shale exploration and to properly support onshore domestic gas production. Our starting point was challenging, with the Regulator advising that not only was the bar to lift the Moratorium being set high but that Cuadrilla must also, by the end of June 2022, plug and abandon the UK’s only two successful horizontal exploration wells drilled at our Preston New Road (PNR) site in Lancashire.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 September 2022)

greggles said:


> AJL share price up 16% on news that the UK government has lifted its moratorium on fracking in England. UK government doing whatever is necessary..



_and seems to have (been) shot down as quickly_

*AJ Lucas completes $19.7m placement *
• $19.7 million capital raising successfully completed via a share placement to institutional, sophisticated and professional investors using the company 15% placement capacity 
• The placement was strongly supported and oversubscribed 
• Issue price of $0.11 per share , which represents a discount of approximately 29% (!)
• There was no offering to retail


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## peter2 (29 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> • Issue price of $0.11 per share , which represents a discount of approximately 29% (!)
> • There was no offering to retail




Totally sucks for the shareholders. Easy money for the insiders without taking much risk.


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## InsvestoBoy (29 September 2022)

peter2 said:


> Totally sucks for the shareholders. Easy money for the insiders without taking much risk.











						AJ Lucas Group raises $20m as UK lifts hydraulic fracturing ban
					

Listed drilling services and gas exploration business AJ Lucas was asking investors for $19.7 million via a share placement on Wednesday morning.




					www.afr.com
				






> The term sheet sent to potential investors said AJ Lucas planned to use the proceeds for its UK operations to respond to regulatory changes, expenditure on plant and equipment and for working capital.




With all of $3M in cash, $110M debt and $33M in 12-month liquidity...need the cash to actually make the price worth even 11c  

Shareholders probably should've seen it coming. Not gonna be able to actually frack with negative EPS and what they have on hand...


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## peter2 (27 October 2022)

An example of sovereign risk as UK quickly changes PM. 





They either need a new supply of gas or they don't.


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## frugal.rock (27 October 2022)

peter2 said:


> hey either need a new supply of gas or they don't.



You don't need gas to sing and dance.
Let's hear it for Bollywood. 🕺💃


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## Dona Ferentes (27 October 2022)

naw, we got this. just a blip !!


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