# TLS - Telstra Corporation



## banjo_pete (31 October 2004)

With the LIB's having the power now to sell telstra, what will this do for tls??? do you believe it would be a buy if they sold it off??? What would the advantages and disadvantages???
I will be looking at it as a long term hold. I think giving full power to the share holders and board will lead TLS into different areas. 

Anyone's thoughts??


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## Lucstar (31 October 2004)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

Well, johnny howard selling telstra would mean that it expand the growth potential of telstra. However, telstra is still limited (by law) to eliminate its competitors, although they are capable of doing just that. The next thing our economy doesn't want to have is have another MICROSOFT. I think whats limiting tls to its full potential is that its only limited to Australia. In my opinion, if telstra was too expand into international grounds, then we might finally see telstra lose its dog tag.


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## RichKid (1 November 2004)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

The fact that the government wants a higher price for Telstra means it'll be doing everything it can to have the share price go up before the float in 2006.
That at least is a bullish indicator. I think there are better co's around; good dividend yield though and it's at historic lows (or there abouts).


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## RodC (1 November 2004)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

Lucstar,

Telstra has certainly made attempts at expanding internationally, without much success. Telstra now seems to have settled down to be a relative high yielding utility. Telstra has actually done quite well out of competition, many of their competitors use at least some of Telstra's network for their services. As a result much of Telstra's revenue has moved from the retail side to the wholesale division. In many areas the wholesale should be better margins as you don't need anywhere near the same number of customer support staff.

Don't know what they can do to increase the share price, they're unlikely to be able to increase market share (due to the ACCC) and there's only so much more cost cutting they can do.

Rod.


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## RichKid (1 November 2004)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

Whatever happens keep your eyes and ears open since there'll be millions of reports and observations coming out in the media since a Telstra sale in now in play. Considering that this is a bull market, I don't now why you should stay in Telstra when there are plenty of other stocks running well and paying reasonable dividends- see the bottom drawer stocks thread for example. IF I held TLS I'd sell on any spikes heading towards $5.

I heard the Treasurer say today that TLS will remain majority Australian owned and that he was looking for a price of at least $5 before a sale. When you have the fed govt trying to jack the price up and what will be an army of advisers and investment banks about to join in the float I don't really see how it'll not make $5, it's just that it'll take time and that means hanging on to a dud with just dividends for comfort when lots of other bluechips are running well.

I basically don't think it is a well run company from what I've heard and see lots of resistance at $5, which limits upside. Better to look for value elsewhere. Sorry to be negative but just my opinion.


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## RichKid (1 November 2004)

*Re: Where will tls head???*



			
				RodC said:
			
		

> Lucstar,
> 
> many of their competitors use at least some of Telstra's network for their services. As a result much of Telstra's revenue has moved from the retail side to the wholesale division.
> Rod.




But new technology like that used by Unwired Broadband will start to eat in. Even Optus has started aggressive marketing, recently announcing 3 to 4 months of free broadband access for bundling options. 



> In many areas the wholesale should be better margins as you don't need anywhere near the same number of customer support staff.




Can't say TLS 'service' is as good as it should be anyway, but at least it's improved since the bad old days! While the bush is still a political issue it'll also have to support those areas. But the current ACCC make-up may mean less aggression towards TLS than under Alan Fels - especially re: its behaviour towards smaller competitors.



> Don't know what they can do to increase the share price, they're unlikely to be able to increase market share (due to the ACCC) and there's only so much more cost cutting they can do.




Exactly! 3G and new technology/markets is what they'll be looking at, but again it doesn't happen overnight and competition is still fierce.

One way to stay ahead is not to get into the fanciful ventures they got into in Hong Kong for example with PCCW.


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## still_in_school (9 February 2005)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

TLS to $5.50.. 

great possiblity.. have been trading turbo warrants and CFD's, after TLS made a close above $5.05.. but as of yet.. still looking to re-enter in again.. though missed my entry today.. when it trade back up above $5.20..

though short term, $5.50 is possible... 

Cheers,
sis


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## markrmau (10 February 2005)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

IMHO the only reason tls is going up is because a number of brokerage firms have upgraded it, hoping for a slice of the action when the remainder is sold off. It is still the same old company with an aging copper network, the mobile market is saturated, people may start moving from fixed line to mobile as prices drop, and as stated above internet is moving to wireless.

Thats no reason not to make money out of it while it is in favour though!


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## Investor (12 May 2005)

*Re: Where will tls head???*

Yes, TLS had a short price run when the big end of town were vying for the $600 million fees for T3 to be carved up.

Looks like it was a short term 'support' as I expected. 

I do not see much SP growth for TLS because it will face many problems going forward. Example, VoIP will reduce its revenues significantly. It has also not resolved a non recourse debt of around USD 1 billion that is still owing by Reach (the bad business in HK that it had a JV with PCCW). The JV for Foxtel has already lost a lot of money and continues to lose money.

Intense competition from just about every other player in the telco sector.

I have read that American investors are not interested in T3. Based on international P/E's for telcos, TLS is probably still a bit overpriced.

I do not hold. Bought T1 at IPO. Later sold. Avoided T2. 

I see more downside risk than upside potential. 

Brokers talk about the high dividend yields, without stressing that future DPS hinges on future EPS not falling and that DPS payout is already around 90% of EPS, meaning not much prospect for SP growth.


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## Smurf1976 (12 May 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Even Telstra's own technicians readily admit that the copper network has only been patched up for many years. That is, there is no real investment in the future of that part of their business and in due course infrastructure will fail thus necessitating either massive investment or withdrawal of the service.

It's a bit like having a 30 year old car and only buying the minimum parts needed to keep it running and not doing any servicing. In due course you can't keep doing it that way.

My guess is that the copper network is in due course abandoned in favour of optical fibre bulk data transmission and wireless connection to the end user.

(I have never worked for TLS and do not hold stock but suffice to say that I'm very familiar with underground cabling and have periodic contact with their techs.)

Also Telstra management is very "proceedure" based rather than practical.


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## Investor (12 May 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Even Telstra's own technicians readily admit that the copper network has only been patched up for many years. That is, there is no real investment in the future of that part of their business and in due course infrastructure will fail thus necessitating either massive investment or withdrawal of the service.
> 
> ...




Yes. I have read that as well.


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## RichKid (12 May 2005)

*Re: Where will tls head???*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Yes, TLS had a short price run when the big end of town were vying for the $600 million fees for T3 to be carved up.
> 
> Looks like it was a short term 'support' as I expected.




That's one of the price risks with TLS imo (both ways) as any future work for brokers (eg Seek or the like) may end up being a bribe for brokers to talk up Telstra in exchange for govt favours. Still the bad old behemoth it was a year ago, things don't change that fast for TLS.


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## silent knight (3 June 2005)

*TLS - when announcement expected?*

The new CEO of TLS should be announced soon. Does anyone know when?


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## ghotib (13 June 2005)

*Telstra*

Anyone willing to say what they see in the tea leaves after Sol Trujillo's massive public relations blitz this weekend? Or did we all miss it?

Having done my dough - I mean cunningly taken a capital loss - on T2, I don't have any opinions about Telstra's future, nor yet any advice for Sol. However, by coincidence last week I was reading one of the books about Lou Gerstner and his turnaround of IBM, so I was quite interested to hear Simple Sol's lack of enthusiasm for splitting Telstra. When Gerstner took over at IBM breaking it up was widely regarded as a possible solution to its troubles (much worse troubles than Telstra's) and some steps had actually been taken. He decided against that, although he did close or sell off some divisions. He also rightsized some 70,000 employees - but I guess Telstra can't do that, praise the pigs. 

Ghoti


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## texinozz (11 August 2005)

*TLS Stock - What the ?????*

I am confused by this stock. It seems to have two types of investors, those that undervalue it & invest in it and those that love it & get scared and sell at the first point of problems. It doesn't make any sense to me why this is one of the highest traded stocks yet has very little movement (Over the last 50 days it has been $0.05).
I don't understand how they can make a 4 billion dollar profit and get hammered. When the stock is reviewed most people are selling which would indicate that they were taking profit, yet most of the stock would have been bought at a higher price than what it is being sold at. Does this mean that there are inexperienced investors in the trade or large investors trying to control the price or people who do not want Telstra privatised and are controlling price. As i said I am very confused by this stock because even with the problems they are having I would have expected investor confidence and therefore the stock would be trending up on news of 4 billion profit.


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## markrmau (11 August 2005)

*Re: TLS Stock - What the ?????*

Current profit was good, but future guidance is bad.


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## Rockon2 (11 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Not sure about the FA of tls.. and im not a fan of theirs, 
But. TA suggests this support line will be held..


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## Aden_1 (12 August 2005)

*TLS - Great buy?*

Hey all.

Is it just me, or with telstras share price diving right now.
due to all the speculation about the coming years profits .etc

That is almost a great time to buy in?
They are paying 6% div.

Anyone have thoughts on telstra?


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## Knobby22 (12 August 2005)

*Re: TLS - Great buy?*

woof?


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## raider (12 August 2005)

*Re: TLS - Great buy?*

No I don't think it is a good time to buy.Second half profit lower and maybe
worse to come, expect share price to drop to $4.50. Maybe better bet UNW
running lots of adds now on TV and radio share price has nearly double in the
last 6 weeks which I think is due to the fact that by next quarter they might
be cash positive - I would not rule out that sp could hit a $1.00 or even more.


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## waratah (12 August 2005)

*Re: TLS - Great buy?*

Aden,

I added a few thousand to my long-term portfolio this morning. 

I reckon Donald and Sol are likely to be around a bit longer than John and Helen.

Coonan worries me, I think she's out of her depth.


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## mit (12 August 2005)

*Re: TLS - Great buy?*

That's two pretty significant down gaps on very high volumes. I would wait awhile until it formed a base before buying any, it might keep dropping for awhile

MIT


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## chicken (12 August 2005)

*Re: TLS - Great buy?*

TLS pays this year 35cents per share fully franked...next years payout will be 40 cents in total with special dividents....for long term hold..very cheap at present price when it settles down price will rise again...big buying by institutions.....not by small investors...TLS needs to have more overseas investors up to 50 % to increase the price..Australia to small to absorb this hugh amount...watch overseas institution buying..maybe buying allready..give away price for a company who produced over $4 billion $$$ in profit


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## mit (12 August 2005)

*Re: TLS - Great buy?*

Here's the chart and you can see it has drop through a major support point at a very high volume. It might be a great fundamentally but technically the balance of probability is that there is no sign of it changing direction soon and buying now might be like trying to catch a knife.

I'd wait to see it recover or at least go sideways first. 

MIT


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## raider (12 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I think maybe that the whole problem with TLS are the fundamentals, nearly
half their money comes from fixed lines with little external competition but
the rest come from mobiles, internet etc which are all very competitive and
the more that they compete the more they hurt their own fixed line business- like a dog chasing his tail - not to mention the government chasing the dog.


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## el_ninj0 (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.


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## chicken (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.



At present the divs return now 8% fully franked


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## el_ninj0 (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> At present the divs return now 8% fully franked




Sure, but that doesn't mean anything when the company falls through the floor in a couple of years. Since the dawn of telstra, they have been ripping people off, wholesalers, retailers, consumers. They are basically in tatters at the moment, hence there rush to get a new CEO on the books to make them seem like they are getting their act together. The fact is, Telstra has had record profits again and again, and share holders will continue to expect more and more, and they wont get it any more, there is so much competition out there in the telecommunications sector that its impossible for them to get much more. There market share has been dropping year after year. Yet there profits increase only because they figure out a way to scam people with the services they currently have(eg, excess charges on broadband internet bills).

I have no doubt in my mind that Telstra's best days are over. Artificial price boosting is the only way they are going to be able to make the sale, after that, kiss your money good bye if you have any them.


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## Profitseeker (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I would not touch this share with a barge pole. New technology such as cheap phone calls over the net will soon blow them out of the water.


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## Smurf1976 (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.



And you get heaps better customer service with iiNet too. Something that can't be doing Telstra much good.


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## Smurf1976 (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I have periodic contact with Telstra technicians through work. They always say much the same thing, usually without being asked. Telstra haven't been spending anywhere near enough to maintain their infrastructure and it's come to the point where it's basically cheaper to just replace rather than fix it up.

On another point, does everyone realise that Telstra has thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of pits in the ground. These are the things with concrete lids on them, usually oval shaped for the small ones and rectangular for the bigger ones. You probably have one near your house somewhere.

Now, I don't want to cause any panic here and I've been assured that they're quite safe if you're not touching them but they're made of asbestos. Any idea how many $ Telstra has set aside in case of compensation claims? They're not puting these in any more (they use plastic to make them these days) but a lot of workers would have been exposed over several decades installing them. There's an ongoing risk of exposure for maintenance workers too, especially those installing new conduits into the old pits since that involves putting a hole in the asbestos. Some of the conduits (pipes) that they run the cables through are also made of asbestos.

The big pits with 4 large lids commonly found in city areas are apparently made of concrete so are safe. It's the small ones that are the problem. They aren't removing them since doing so would create dust (which is exactly what you don't want to do with asbestos) and is a pretty difficult ($$$) task without disconnecting all the cables first.

So, no need to panic if there's one in your garden but I wouldn't be messing about with it. If you do come in direct contact with asbestos then I'm told (by a doctor) that (1) make sure you don't inhale it or spread it around where it could be inhaled in the future and (2) it's especially important that you wash your hands very well before going to the toilet since the skin in that region of the body is different to the skin on your hands and asbestos fibres will penetrate it which can lead to cancer. (Apparently many former asbestos workers get cancer in this region but it's somewhat of a "taboo" subject since it implies lack of personal hygene.)

But do you want to own stock in a company with a potential asbestos liability? You decide, I'm just passing on what I know.


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## krisbarry (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I did read in the paper that fund managers are selling out of Telstra, could be the main reasons for the price drop.

I think this yank dude is spending like he lives in the USA.  Kinda can't see our little Johnny Howard coughin' up $5 billion to increase services in the bush.


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## Julia (13 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I regard my holding as part of "cash at bank".  The returns are better.  If it ever achieves some capital growth, good, but if not, it can continue to trickle in as at present.  Unless, that is, it continues a downward path which I don't think will happen once the market accommodates the CEO's gloomy forecast which I  think was possibly intentional for political purposes.

Julia


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## skin (15 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				krisbarry said:
			
		

> ...  Kinda can't see our little Johnny Howard coughin' up $5 billion to increase services in the bush.



Seems like little Johnny has a little cough - his cold may be worse - presently looking at $3bln  the negotiations have begun...


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## waratah (15 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I bought a few thousand more this morning @ $4.78.

Considering all the negative vibes proffered from the "experts" I read in the papers over the w'end, I thought TLS held up rather well.

Donald & Sol - CRASH OR CRASH THROUGH !!


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## Bronte (15 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

"Buy in Gloom"
I think I will wait for a bit more gloom this time.


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## rozella (15 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

News article 

Telstra up as investors chase dividend


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## waratah (16 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Rozella,

You appear to be the man who knows his dividends.

TLS is keeping her head above water today, despite the negatives.

In your opinion, how much is this result yield driven, versus other factors?


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## rozella (16 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

G'day waratah,



> You appear to be the man who knows his dividends.



Ha-Ha.....I wish.

I have found that "The lure of the dividend, gives a stock a reason to rise", & thats it, nothing fancy about the dividend trading strategy.

With TLS, it is a big dividend when you take the special into account.  I own it, but it is a "dog" of a stock.  I have made money & lost money with it.....I'd say lost more than I have made over the years, & many a time I have said I will never touch it again.

Just my own personal opinion (not advice whatsoever), the only thing that I see it has going for it at the moment is the lure of the dividend, but not to stay in for the dividend, I will take what I can on the leadup to exdiv & sell, & I will probably still be behind.  With interest it owes me 530.0 atm.  I did what we all do sometimes & let fall below my stop.....it does not pay.

So you can see how much I like TLS


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## waratah (16 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Rozella,

No, I was serious, mate. I like your stuff.

I added TLS to my long-term portfolio late last week and yesterday. Must admit, I considered the possibility that I'd be averaging out at around $4.50 sometime this week, having read all the doom & gloom from the "experts" in the weekend tissues.

If the new Chairman & CEO are unable to sort that joint out and give investors some confidence over the medium/long term, then Yes....I'll consign TLS to the kennel as well.

In the meantime, well bid @ $4.86 as we speak.


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## rozella (16 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Here is another article

Telstra shares continue short-term recovery


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## Bronte (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

My target is $4.65 ish
The divi must be looking very attractive to some.


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## Smurf1976 (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Anyone know why the governement thinks next year is the best time for them to sell the rest of Telstra? It was on the news that they are thinking that, but why?


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## rozella (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Does not give a reason for the timing

Govt clears way for Telstra sale with $3bn bush package


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## mit (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Howard in a speech indicated that he was given advice that the price might be better next year for a sale. At least somebody somewhere is bullish about next year.

MIT


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## Battman64 (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I am sorry to keep going on about WD Gann...
(I normally keep to my own thread.)

He said many years ago that "The fifth year of the decade is the ascension year"

We have never had (so far) a down year in the fifth year of the decade.
2005 1995 1985 etc

Maybe the government advisors know this.


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## mit (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Battman64 said:
			
		

> I am sorry to keep going on about WD Gann...
> He said many years ago that "The fifth year of the decade is the ascension year"
> We have never had (so far) a down year in the fifth year of the decade.
> 2005 1995 1985 etc
> Maybe the government advisors know this.




Wouldn't they sell this year (1995) then   rather than next year 1996 as they want a high price?


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## Battman64 (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

No mit the prices should keep going up until next year.
Look at the sixth year of the decade. (usually higher prices)


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## Battman64 (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

In 1996 we peaked on March 4th
I know I sold the market  
Please see "Trading the SPI"


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## mit (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				mit said:
			
		

> Wouldn't they sell this year (1995) then   rather than next year 1996 as they want a high price?




Oops I meant 2005 and 2006.

Battman,

I have the SPI plot in front of me. Only from 1983 but there were only a half dozen down years in this entire period so most years ended higher than they started and there doesn't seem to be anything particularly different around the years ending in '5. It did peak in March 1996, but after a minor correction the year finished stronger. Looked at 1986 and it didn't peak in March but later in the year and again finished the year higher. 

MIT


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## Battman64 (17 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Hehe!

Gann talks about well over 100 years of Dow.
He died in 1955 (wasn't a good year for him)  
77 years of age.

SPI started Feb 16th 1983

The 1995 range peaked on March 4th 1996
Pulled back to July 17th (50% of the range)


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## Bronte (23 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Bronte said:
			
		

> My target is $4.65 ish
> The divi must be looking very attractive to some.




$4.69 Low for today.  
Thoughts anyone!!


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## Bronte (31 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

$4.66 as I type
It will be nice to see $4.65


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## chicken (31 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Bronto thats all very well...but look at the stock which is shortsold....whoever they are they will have to buy stock on the open market...there are at present 15 million shares sold without stock....and watch what will happen....stock needs to be delivered within 3 days....so by next tuesday they must have bought this stock....and before div.payout...its now a buy ...sp will go up


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## Bronte (31 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I certainly agree with you chicken legs.
Very well done with the comp.


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## Warren Buffet II (31 August 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Bronte said:
			
		

> I certainly agree with you chicken legs.
> Very well done with the comp.




$4.70 before XD and then $4.30 - $4.50


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## Yippyio (1 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Interesting article in the SMH yesterday. The government is looking at changing the media laws.

This would pave the way for Telstra to aquire all of Foxtel, Fairfax and possibly Channel Nine (currently under a cloud at PBL)

With the new laws in place (no probs with a majority in the senate) the government will be paving the way for Telstra to demonstrate a very strong growth strategy that will impress the investment community and as such raise the SP (sky rocket), prior to T3. 

Telstra as a 360 degree, fully intergrated media bohemath is probably the only way that T3 will fly, allowing the government a maximum return on their 51%.    

FYI

SMH - 31st August 2005

Telecommunications Minister Helen Coonan is considering a revamp of media ownership laws that would allow a single company to own newspapers, radio and television stations in the same market.

Addressing the National Press Club, Senator Coonan said that, subject to keeping some licence and reach limits, she was looking at ways to allow mergers of existing media systems.

"I'm considering an approach where mergers could take place between the regulated platforms of television, radio and newspapers within a licence area," she said.

"This would mean, for example, there could be common ownership of a television licence, two radio stations and an associated newspaper or other combinations in that same market."

Senator Coonan said she was looking at a system where mergers could be allowed, as long as there was enough competition in the market.

"Mergers would be subject to there remaining a minimum number of commercial media groups in the relevant regional and metropolitan markets. Four voices in regional markets and five in mainland state capitals," she said.

AdvertisementAdvertisement
AAP


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## Yippyio (1 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Exert from today's SMH - Note her last referefence to "perhaps in other networks"

Telstra will very soon be on the aqusition trail. Any media with substantial reach will be a potential target.

SMH - 1 September 2005  

"Obviously Telstra, along with every other dominant telecommunication provider in the world, is feeling some pressure because of declining revenues that are returned from its fixed line network.

"But it needs to be more competitive in other areas, in mobile delivery, in broadband and perhaps in other networks.


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## Bronte (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

*"Buy in Gloom"*
Can Telstra get any gloomier?
New 52 week Low.
$4.59 today.


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## Rockon2 (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Telstra Corp Ltd has abandoned plans for a five bln aud share buyback to boost its share price ahead of the 51.8 pct Australian government-owned telecommunications group's full privatization, The Australian Financial Review reported, citing Telstra sources.



Uh Oh !!


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## Yippyio (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

TLS down .10 so far, thanks to the public slanging match between Burgess and Howard/ Coonan. Can't they keep it in the boardroom.

Burgess, Telstra 2IC has gone on record, The AGE newspaper, to state that he would not sell TLS shares to his mother. This guy needs to be gagged or sent packing.


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## el_ninj0 (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> TLS down .10 so far, thanks to the public slanging match between Burgess and Howard/ Coonan. Can't they keep it in the boardroom.
> 
> Burgess, Telstra 2IC has gone on record, The AGE newspaper, to state that he would not sell TLS shares to his mother. This guy needs to be gagged or sent packing.




I agree, if I was a Telstra share holder I would be extremely unhappy with there performances. This new telstra crew has done more damage than good so far. I agree with him though, I wouldn't sell TLS shares to anyone, they are overvalued and whats more, there forecast is absolutely terrible. As Telstra refuses more and more to do anything about their ageing infrastructure, there more they will lose out.



			
				Bronte said:
			
		

> "Buy in Gloom"
> Can Telstra get any gloomier?
> New 52 week Low.
> $4.59 today.




It can get alot gloomier. But I wouldn't say it'll do that any time soon. So mabey nows the time to buy if your looking for a quick rise before the sell off(if it ever happens).


----------



## Yippyio (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

And the political manuvouring continues. Media changes not top priority, more like let's not draw to much attention to the fact that we need to change the current media laws to give Telstra any chance of growth.

Read between the lines. Media laws will change soon and Telstra will go on a spending spree.

FYI


Media changes not top priority: PM
September 2, 2005 - 10:37AM

If the government could reach an agreement on proposed media ownership changes in the public interest it would proceed but it wasn't top priority, Prime Minister John Howard says.

Mr Howard said he had never supported the present media ownership laws and opposed them way back when they were introduced.

He said he and communications minister Helen Coonan had discussed her proposals for media ownership changes.

"I authorised her to go and talk to people about it, talk to different sections of the community and when she has completed that process, she will come back and talk to me and cabinet will discuss it," he told ABC radio in Tasmania.

"If we can obtain agreement on a fair package then we will go ahead with it. If we can't then I don't regard changing the existing laws as the most important priority for the government in this term.

"But if we can reach agreement and it seems in the public interest then we will go ahead with it. If we can't then we won't."

Under proposed changes outlined this week, Australia's media moguls would be able to join forces and foreign media players enter the local market.

Under the plans, a single media company could own a TV station, two radio stations and a newspaper all in the one market.

As a result, Rupert Murdoch's News Corp would be free to snap up the Ten Network and newspaper giant Fairfax to buy Kerry Packer's Nine Network.

Foreign media players could also snare Australian TV networks and newspapers, subject to federal government approval.

Mr Howard said the media market had changed so much and the existing restrictions should no longer apply.

"I don't think you should have prohibitions on cross media [ownership]. There are other things that can be looked at," he said.

"I know the ABC has put submissions about other things that can be looked at. That is what Senator Coonan is doing at present and I believe that she is doing it well. But it is not number one on my list."

AAP


----------



## el_ninj0 (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I'd just like to point out that UNW is going to be a major threat to Telstra in the future, both as a whole saler of bandwidth and a retail competitor. Now that intel is backing them, and there interstate rollout begins in 2006, they will slowly but surely take over alot of Telstra's revenue, as specially with all the new WiMAX 802.16e technogies being developed by Intel and other manufacturers.

Just thought i'd bring that to everyones attention.

 :goodnight


----------



## kerosam (2 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

the top few executives are not setting good examples to the thousands working in telstra and definitely not good ambassadors of the company. looks like telstra has got a mountain to climb.

selling mine after ex-div.


----------



## clowboy (3 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

By the time they go ex-div I wonder if they will be worth anything at all????


----------



## krisbarry (3 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Did I hear it correctly through the week that one of the exec. was quoted as saying that he wouldn't even buy TLS shares for his own mother?

Brokers fleeing this stock in droves, not good for the government and as a whole for the people of Australia.


----------



## raider (4 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> I'd just like to point out that UNW is going to be a major threat to Telstra in the future, both as a whole saler of bandwidth and a retail competitor. Now that intel is backing them, and there interstate rollout begins in 2006, they will slowly but surely take over alot of Telstra's revenue, as specially with all the new WiMAX 802.16e technogies being developed by Intel and other manufacturers.
> 
> Just thought i'd bring that to everyones attention.
> 
> :goodnight




I fully agree with el-ninj0, I think UNW will achieve revenue neutral by the end
of next quarter (sept) which will be a surprise to the market (they need only about 45,000 customers to break even not as stated by some 70,000 which was the initial capacity of the network and not the breakeven number) and it will have a major impact to its share price maybe up to a $1.00 with more to come if it really becomes a threat to Tls or someone else.


----------



## rozella (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Phew, down 20 cents & 27 million traded in the 1st 17 minutes


----------



## Yippyio (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

TLS is doing the red baron. 

Thanks to Burgess's comments last week, "I would not recommend Telstra shares to my mother" the government is now going to have to move a bit quicker on revising the current media ownership laws.

Unwired is not going to effect Telstra business. Telstra already have an wireless service, which will be quicker then Unwired, with 3G. The Telstra version of 3G is being launched this week.

Growth for Telstra is not going to come from tradional revenue streams i.e. domestic and business fixed line, ADSL, mobile or Broadband. 

Telstra growth will come from media content delivery through a convergence of media platforms, that will operate on Telstra networks.


----------



## chicken (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> TLS is doing the red baron.
> 
> Thanks to Burgess's comments last week, "I would not recommend Telstra shares to my mother" the government is now going to have to move a bit quicker on revising the current media ownership laws.
> 
> ...



That may be so....but taking an axe to telstra is not to do business..I agree thinks have to change but not at the expense of small shareholders..this handling of this business is NOT professional...As the Goverment said...the Mexican thinks he runs the country..THE GOVERMENT RUNS THE COUNTRY...I was not happy with the Choice of CEO in the beginning well here we got the s...t just hit the fan I am sure negotiation would have been the way to go forward not using an AXE...Sol if he carries on like that will be replaced smartly....the sooner the better.....


----------



## Happy (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Looks that ‘Three Amigos’ follow typical scenario for US bread CEO’s.

They come and cry poor, company is almost collapsing, everything is wrong.
Then, due to their interference things turn around and CEO big name gets bigger.

Of course this doesn’t have to be the case, they could be really something.


----------



## el_ninj0 (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> Unwired is not going to effect Telstra business. Telstra already have an wireless service, which will be quicker then Unwired, with 3G. The Telstra version of 3G is being launched this week.




I have to disagree on that one Yippyio. My profession is Information Technology, and I do know for a fact that the service that WiMAX can provide is a phenominal advantage to Unwired over every other telecommunications service provider in the country. Im sure ive already said this, but Unwired own the WiMAX spectrum. Thats why Intel has just made a deal with Unwired, and not Telstra, because the understand the benefit to them in the future will far outway the costs right now.


----------



## Yippyio (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Thanks for the heads up on that El Ninjo, TLS is just getting smellier and smellier.

So the question remains, "Where will TLS head ?"

Well Confucius says, "Try to pick bottom and you get smelly finger"


----------



## mit (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

But isn't there also a huge cost difference between wireless and 3G?  

I have always thought that though Telstra have had problems with regulations, with all of their property and huge cash-flow they had huge opportunities. They could have put a huge broadband wireless network through-out Australia. San Francisco is introducing a free wireless network through the city. Instead of Telstra doing it, others have made the running and with VOIP and so-forth the only way for Telstra is down.

Because of the distance to the nearest exchange I was never going to get ADSL, Telstra took two months to tell me that I was too far away for ADSL and didn't even try to discuss alternatives. 

Somebody has just put a wireless tower near me with reasonably priced broadband. Why couldn't Telstra do this for both voice and internet?

MIT


----------



## el_ninj0 (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				mit said:
			
		

> But isn't there also a huge cost difference between wireless and 3G? I think that is where Telstra has shown it's style. Think of all of the cash it has and all of the properties it has access to. It could have put up a huge wireless network. This is where it is going to get unstuck and has missed opportunities.
> 
> MIT




There is a huge cost difference, it costs alot more to run a 3G network than it does a WiMAX/WiFI network. 3G only works at very short distances, where as WiFi/WiMAX technologies work at upto 6/50km's respectively. Less equipment to put in, greater range and at higher speeds. For me, its pretty self explanatory what is going to happen...


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> As Telstra refuses more and more to do anything about their ageing infrastructure, there more they will lose out.



Exactly what the workers and unions have been saying for years. 

It's the same thing again and again. Highly skilled, knowledgeable technical people are ignored (or sacked) by know-all managers and CEO's. Then the inevitable happens and those few left that know what they are doing try and patch it all up while management and CEO's make excuses for their own mistakes.

Who was right? Technical people were right as they generally are. They focus on what needs to be done for the long term, not how to prop up the share price for the next few months as management does.

Who was wrong? Management (as usual) putting the short term ahead of the long term.

It's always the same, management ideas come about, fail and then disappear. Then in comes a new management idea, it fails and disappears. Meanwhile the technical people keep the company, and the country, running.

Needless to say, simply doing more of the same isn't going to fix anything.


----------



## Kauri (7 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

After this latest fiasco I hope those investigating the "market disclosure" aspect also check to see which, if any, family trusts, family related co's, etc, managed to fortuitously sell out after the Gov. got an early look at the real state of TLS. I think that maybe one late R.R. may be laughing.


----------



## Rockon2 (7 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Sheesh!! just watched Kerry Obrien grilling John Howard over tls ......

Howard correct on the most important piece..... They the government dont run Telstra!!!
Telstra Runs Telstra..... 

And no wonder the govt want out!!

Be interesting to see what ACIC turns up.......Hmmnnnn   


Arrwell interesting times... Im now cranky i didnt short the sucker


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200509/s1459502.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/australia/tas/northtas/200509/s1459081.htm

Looks like it could be bye, bye Telstra if this communications over power lines project is a goer. Just won't need their infrastructure (apart from mobiles which is highly competitive) anymore.  

And to think that those who are ultimately responsible for Telstra's lack of technical leadership and see selling it as the answer to everything also thought selling Aurora and Hydro Tasmania would be a good idea. Hmm... they don't seem to keen on anything scientific! Why would anyone want to sell off something that produces 60% of Australia's renewable electricity, is into hydrogen, broadband for the masses and even changes the weather (to make it rain more - another thing the other states ought to be looking at instead of water restrictions etc.). These "privatisation" people just don't seem able to think about the future.


----------



## Bronte (15 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Plenty of twists and turns on this stock.
Divi 26th Sept.


----------



## Yippyio (15 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Watch TLS go today, should put on 1 or 2% now that it is over the line. All focus will be on T3 and building shareholder value.


----------



## Joe Blow (26 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Telstra is getting sold down heavily today. At the moment it's at $4.10, down almost 5% and looking very weak. Went ex-div today, so obviously that's a factor.

Apart from that, the only news released this morning was this:



> ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT
> 
> Dear Sir or Madam
> 
> ...



If it stays stuck in this downtrend it looks like it might test its all time low around $3.90-$4.00 in the near future. Not looking good.


----------



## krisbarry (26 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I agree Joe, latest predictions from many brokers agree too.


----------



## ob1kenobi (26 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

I agree. Already TLS is testing the $4-25 level and the volume chart suggests that the spike in volume has been people off loading the stock. I suspect that the downward trend will continue and will not be surprised if TLS tests the $4-00 mark.  In recent times they have had more ups and downs than a Roller Coaster Ride at Lunar Park!  I did an analysis of their chart around March with my Business Class when we were doing Financial Planning. Using any form of analysis, you wouldn't have gone near TLS then (or now)!  The recent chart is attached.


----------



## RichKid (26 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

Does anyone have any quality info on the chances of them continuing with the div payments? The engineers seem to say they should be using the money for new infrastructure while the mums and dads only want the divs. No divs in future and this'll drop like a brick. Looks like the US boss doesn't really care much for what John Howard thinks.


----------



## bonkers (27 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

TLS) Telstra’s share slide
26-Sep

Telstra shares have suffered a major slide in value after the shares went ex-dividend today.

At 1245 AEST Telstra shares had fallen 4.6 percent or 19 cents to $ 4.11 in morning trading.

Analysts are expecting the price to fall even lower, with some predicting the shares could finish at below $ 4.00 by then end of the week.

The value of the shares have plummeted due to a 14 cent dividend payed out to investors today.

Shares fell last week after Telstra CEO Sol Trujillo issued a profit warning, blaming regulatory restrictions imposed by the federal government and a drop in fixed line and mobile revenue.

The profit warning sparked a massive sell-off in Telstra shares and sent the stock to a two-year low of $4.26, having fallen from $5.20 on July 1, Mr Trujillo's first day in the office.


----------



## Yippyio (30 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*

A lot of buying support yesterday but it looks like this may have been people covering their shorts. Alot of volume was settled overnight @ 5.36. 

Very nice for some.


----------



## sails (30 September 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> A lot of buying support yesterday but it looks like this may have been people covering their shorts. Alot of volume was settled overnight @ 5.36.
> 
> Very nice for some.



Option expiry yesterday and most of the overnight volume was due exercise of puts which explains the trades going through at higher prices.  Yes, it's been a good run for the put holders!


----------



## ob1kenobi (3 October 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

According to Huntley's Telstra has: Current Assets $6177m and Current Liabilities $6382m. Using a basic liquidity ratio (current ratio) derived by using the formula CA/CL that would mean:

6177/6382
= 0.97:1 (rounded)

Simply put, for every 97c of Assets, it has $1 of debt. Interestingly the same formula is used to calculate a Working Capital Ratio. This means that, if Huntley's report is correct, Telstra has a short fall in its Working Capital. In dollars this is calculated out as CA-CL which would mean:

$6177m-$6382m
= -$205m

The attached Huntley's Report is dated 2 October 2005. Interestingly, Telstra had a similar set of figures back in March! Caveat Emptor!


----------



## Yippyio (17 October 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

Anyone wondering where TLS will acheive growth only need to read this article.

Foxtel now has 1.2 million subscribers at an avarage of $100/month this is equivalent to $ 120 000 000/ month in subscriber income, alone. In addition to subscriber income Foxtel is now attracting substantial advertising income.

Foxtel is set to dwarf the free to air stations, if not already.

By relaxing the cross media ownership laws the government will also pve the way for TLS to make more media aquisitions ie. Fairfax & Ten are both potential targets.

FYI  


Pay TV gives thanks to football fever
By David Dale
October 17, 2005
Page Tools

As it celebrates its 10th birthday, the pay television industry is boasting that its total viewing audience has risen by 20 per cent over the past 12 months and that a quarter of Australian homes are subscribers.

However, a closer look at the way Australians actually use pay TV suggests the growth is almost entirely based on the nation's passion for all codes of football: all of the 20 most watched programs on pay TV this year have been NRL matches.

The Cowboys versus the Sharks drew an audience of 331,000 and the Bulldogs versus the Rabbitohs drew 325,000.

The areas where pay TV was supposed to attract viewers, like children's programming, recent movies and nostalgia, lost viewers between 2004 and 2005. (An exception was The Simpsons interactive, which was the most-watched non-sport program in 2005.)

The Disney channel, for example, lost 13 per cent of its average audience; Showtime lost 20 per cent; and TV1's audience fell by 9 per cent.

These losses were offset by big audience gains for sport and news: Fox Footy's audience was up by 37 per cent, Fox Sports 1's rose by 23 per cent, and Sky News gained 35 per cent.

The average total audience for all pay tv stations between 6am and midnight in the first nine months of this year was 372,000; the figure for the corresponding period last year was 310,500.

Foxtel claims to have 1.2 million subscribers and Austar claims 500,000. This means about 25 per cent of Australian homes are receiving more than 40 pay TV stations by cable or by satellite.

In September, pay TV's share of viewers, at 17.2 per cent, was the highest it has ever been.

Anthony Fitzgerald, the chief executive of the pay TV lobby group, Multi Channel Network, said the figures showed "the momentum continues to build for subscription television".

"This highlights the growing appeal of STV's [subscription television's] broad program offering, and the fact that peak television ratings are driven by more than sporting special events," he said.

However, the "broad program offering" is not what seems to be attracting most new viewers.

The pay TV stations with the biggest audience growth this year were Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Fox Footy, Sky News, UKTV, National Geographic, MTV, Hallmark and Fox Classics.

The stations with the biggest audience losses were the Disney Channel, the Cartoon Network, Channel V, the Comedy Channel, Arena, Fox 8, the History Channel, Max, Movie Extra, Showtime, Movie One and TV1.


----------



## el_ninj0 (17 October 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

Correct me if im wrong, but Foxtel is only half owned by Telstra is it not?
thats leaving $60,000,000 a month already, plus advertising costs, plus infrastructure costs, plus maintanance, etc....
Sure they will still make a nice sum from it, but how much was their original outlay for foxtel?
In my opinion, Telstra is a dinosaur waiting to die out. The extinction is already in the process, just give it a few more years and it'll have had it.

Besides didn't anyone see that show on ABC last nite?, the world is going to end in 20 years, .


----------



## Yippyio (17 October 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

Hi El ninjo,

Consider the value to TLS and the other sharholders if they were to spin Foxtel off and list it seperatly.

In addtion to Foxtel consider Sensis as another seperate listed entity brokers have placed a valuation on Sensis of $ 10 billion.

Over the next few months we are going to be made very aware of the value there is in the Telstra assets and it is alot more complex then a few copper wires.

This bohemoth needs to be pointed in the right direction, hopefully with the T3 as motivation this is going to happen.

P.S. I missed the ABC last night, wasn't the world supposed to end in 1984 ?


----------



## randomtrader (27 October 2005)

*Telstra (I hate you so much)*

What are everyones thoughts on telstra, its seems to be a little unpredictable lately.  I'm guessing 4.50 short term, but 3.50 long term.


----------



## amohonour (27 October 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

I think of AMP and its big crash when i think of TLS i can remember saying to my mife when they bottomed hey they would be a great buy but because of the once bitten twice shy rule have never really bothered with them could well be the same for TLS. still a long way to go before people will haqve confidence in them imho


----------



## Yippyio (27 October 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

I am certain that the eagerly awaited strategic review, soon to be delivered by Telstra will be very pleasing to the market and I very much doubt that you will see Telstra at these levels again.







-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: I do not hold TLS. I have lost loads of money and anyone who pays any attention to anything I say or post probably will as well.


----------



## Lucstar (1 November 2005)

*Telstra? Turn of the tide?*

TLS has been in jeopardy for some time but it seems that its settled down now. The charts seem to have bottomed out and starting the turn around now. What's your views on this dog? Has the storm finally ended? Or should we wait till the privatisation is fully complete before the outlook can be painted?


----------



## Yippyio (1 November 2005)

*Re: Telstra? Turn of the tide?*



			
				Lucstar said:
			
		

> TLS has been in jeopardy for some time but it seems that its settled down now. The charts seem to have bottomed out and starting the turn around now. What's your views on this dog? Has the storm finally ended? Or should we wait till the privatisation is fully complete before the outlook can be painted?




All eyes will be on the Strategic Review, due to be delivered by Sol next week (I think it's next week, you need to check). If the market likes what it hears you "may" see the SP spike and start heading towards the government's price target for T3 ($5.25)

I currently do not hold TLS


----------



## Yippyio (14 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

TLS will deliver it's long awaited strategic review. I have no doubt that they will be saying all the right things, which "should" lead to a bit of a spike.

Watching with interest


----------



## dutchie (16 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

Don't write off Telstra just yet!

I think they did say all the right things yesterday - not too much bull**** and they bit the bullet on hard decisions.

Its got a hard and long road ahead but imo TLS will come good in the long term.

There seems to be support at about $4.00.

With the 28c dividend that equates to 7% yield (better than the banks).

I think they have learnt from other national telcos in the same position (market loss) and are going to slowly build Telstra back up. Will be a while before it gets to $5.40 though.


----------



## money tree (16 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> Foxtel now has 1.2 million subscribers at an avarage of $100/month this is equivalent to $ 120 000 000/ month in subscriber income, alone.




Income.......NOT PROFIT

they dont get all those channels for free ya know! In fact I bet they are probably just clearing a profit.


----------



## happytrader (16 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

Telstra is a prime example of what happens when the government is 'holding your hand'  Telstra has been 'babied' for years, the sooner it grows up and takes responsibility and supports itself the better. 

This is merely an observation and opinion.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## serp (28 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

3.88 close today, I've heard analysts saying it'll head to 3.75. I dunno, but if it starts going below 3.75 I'd say thats a good buy. If it hit 3.60 or 3.50 I'd buy some


----------



## RichKid (29 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*



			
				dutchie said:
			
		

> Don't write off Telstra just yet!
> 
> With the 28c dividend that equates to 7% yield (better than the banks).




But what if they decide to lower it or not pay it or reduce franking or do something along those lines, then is it worth holding? Also, we like to think that big companies never die (even if it's partly govt owned) but it could just go lower and wallow for a while, your money could be doing more elsewhere (eg in an uptrending stock with a good fully franked div yield).

Just my thoughts. Currently around the recently made all time low.


----------



## Richard Willoughby (29 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

i agree with dutchie, the fact that optus and co still require the protection of the accc after approx 17 years is a sure sign that they have failed. if regulators are removed/restricted by gov and telstra is allowed to actually compete with them freely i believe they will disappear. they have had a lot of time to pick the eyes out of tls business without the disadvantages associated with cross subsidies and still they (not telstra) require protection.
a dividend can be increased as well as decreased with an announcement.
perhaps this gov won't(remove/restrict) but small shareholders and country people vote.
cu tricky


----------



## Milk Man (30 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*



			
				Richard Willoughby said:
			
		

> ....a dividend can be increased as well as decreased with an announcement.
> perhaps this gov won't(remove/restrict) but small shareholders and *country people vote.*
> cu tricky




The telstra crew do an awesome job out here. I know because the phone lines are shot and I always need someone to come fix them. They are also replacing the old one with a nice fibre optic cable. Theyve won a vote if anything here, not that I hold TLS though....


----------



## rozella (30 November 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

An article in yesterdays media Telstra shares sink deeper 

Its the last couple of paragraphs of a poll that is interesting.


----------



## serp (1 December 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*



			
				rozella said:
			
		

> Its the last couple of paragraphs of a poll that is interesting.




I thought that T3 was going to be targeted at mostly institutional investors anyway, so mum and dad investors that read news.com.au probably don't reflect the real opinion of the market.

But who knows? I'm sure everyone is just waiting for the deadline to roll around for the T3 sale to become live and then decisions will be made then whether to postpone or change the guidelines on what will be offered.



> Of those who intended to participate, 64 per cent said they would only buy T3 shares at prices up to $3 a share.




I tell you what, in the current market if Telstra offered shares @ $3 you would find it hard going to find someone that wouldn't buy them, even though Telstra are looking shaky that is a bargin.


----------



## mit (31 December 2005)

*Re: Where will TLS head???*



			
				Battman64 said:
			
		

> I am sorry to keep going on about WD Gann...
> (I normally keep to my own thread.)
> 
> He said many years ago that "The fifth year of the decade is the ascension year"
> ...




Unfortunately for this year the DOW ended up down.

MIT


----------



## Yippyio (4 January 2006)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

TLS up 2.5% today, any news ?


----------



## michael_selway (4 January 2006)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*



			
				Yippyio said:
			
		

> TLS up 2.5% today, any news ?




no news it seems but All Ords, went up, so most stocks generally went up as well?


----------



## TheAnalyst (4 January 2006)

*Re: Where will TLS head?*

Hi yippio

I just finished a short term trade on tlsiss warrants and if i waited 2 more days i would have go $600 instead of $180....i think and have noted with tls its main sensitivities are legislative or government and semi gov organisations such as accc heavily weigh on the stock....i never bothered with the stock until it went below $3.90 as i always considered it a risk but when it hit this price and i read the financials that came from the board i was able to determine that for the medium term this would probally be its final low.

But there is always a risk, so thts why i only used installment warrants as i was able to use little capital to make  a quick gain and if the trade went against me i could sit and wait a while.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (30 March 2006)

Hi folks,

TLS ..... a bounce off 3.60, ahead of some positive 
news expected, around 07042006 ..... 

Other key dates ahead for TLS, may be:

        12042006 ..... minor

        26042006 ..... significant and positive ... finances???


        01052006 ..... minor news???

        12052006 ..... significant and negative??? 

        16052006 ..... more negative news???

        22052006 ..... 2 cycles here ... positive ... finances???

        30052006 ..... minor news ???

Looking ahead, 13-18 October 2006 should bring us
some huge TLS news, though response may be muted
at that time .....  but, sentiment should improve in
November 2006, where we also expect to see the
spotlight focused yet again, on TLS ... ???

happy days

  yogi


----------



## kr1zh (28 April 2006)

Lets see what's happening to the stock price when TLS has turn off CDMA and turn on its 3GSM technology operating at 850 MHz.

TLS will start rolling out 850 soon.

I guess at a point of time in future as soon as 850 service is turned on TLS will gain quite a hugh profit..


----------



## bionic (17 May 2006)

Dear All,

I am starting to consider telstra, mainly due to its big pond movie via cable or internet which i beleive is going to give it a huge market

whats the best way to use as little capital as possible to invest  over about a 18 month period ?

any suggestions appreciated


----------



## Sean K (17 May 2006)

It's a dog with gigantic flees all over it. 

Buy something that's growing, not shrinking.


----------



## wavepicker (17 May 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> It's a dog with gigantic flees all over it.
> 
> Buy something that's growing, not shrinking.





With so much pessimism on TLS, this makes it a great contrarian trade for the long haul.

Buy good stoxx that nobody else wants, otherwise somebody else will!!!

cheers


----------



## Sean K (17 May 2006)

Contrarian, not massachist!   

Must admit though, I keep on looking at it, thinking 'surely this can not go down any more!' They make billions!!!!!!   

But, then I have a bit more of a think about it, and look at the leadership group and, well,  I just don't trust men with moustaches.   

The stock has to go back to $5 for me to be square. I bought it all the way down, down, down, thinking there was a bottom.


----------



## wavepicker (17 May 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Contrarian, not massachist!
> 
> Must admit though, I keep on looking at it, thinking 'surely this can not go down any more!' They make billions!!!!!!
> 
> ...




If you bought it all the way down, then what was your entry strategy or quantified your buying decision?, beside averaging down? relying on economic and company fundementals will definately get you burned.

To be honest with you I bought this stock at $3.64, three weeks ago. Did not even look at the fundementals or announcements. Initially in fact, I did not even know which company it was!! The buying decision was initially based on chart patterns. The chart is showing that this particular stock was churning and it's bear market is about to end or has ended based on elliott waves and cyclic analysis(Hurst doinancy envelopes) Long term momentum is slowly changing upward.
The second criteria was based on sentiment. As I said to you before, you would be hard pressed to find a bull for this stock at present with negativity and all the hype in resources sector. The perfect setup for a buy as pessimism is as low as it can get. Five years ago when gold was trading at $254, the pessimsism on gold was unbeleivable. Financial magazines repeatedly posted stories of gold having no future in the technological world we live, in stating that it had no commercial value. That it was financial relic with no hope.You were hard pressed to find a bull among people. (similiar to the US Dollar in Dec of 2004 before it rallied)This was the perfect buy. I bought physical gold back then and liquidated 3 weeks ago,a little early to be honest but who's perfect.Now everyone wants to own gold, we are at the other extreme of the spectrum.

 Another factor for TLS: The rally this stock had 3 weeks ago from $3.64 to $4.02, happened exactly the same time resource stoxx sold off. This tells me that there is rotation going on. The big boys are slowly unloading from resources and the volume is increasing on the down days.
I also like PBB which I think has also ended it's bear. Bought that one at $1.55 using the same criteria as TLS

Well we see how we wil go  

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (17 May 2006)

wavepicker, Your logic and strategy has made a few people very rich. Good work. 

The market in the short term may be irrational but eventually all market forces come into play to bring things back to equilibrium. 

I think you may have jumped off the resource boom too soon though. The Chindia story is very compelling. 

We'll see.


----------



## kr1zh (28 May 2006)

I tell you something, Telstra's WCDMA 2100 services joined with Hutchinson will soon be available in country such as Wollongong..

Where Telstra will be heading for the wireless mobile technology? Finger crossed to have 3G WCDMA 850 to the country as well.

850 will be cost effective and high return. Let's see guys, the time will come..


----------



## Hopeful (27 June 2006)

T.A. tells me that TLS is weak, looks like it's going to test the all-time lows again. but could rebound from here. I bought some in anticipation of a bounce but have the sell trigger ready, the risk-reward ratio looks favourable - a close below $3.60 will be my unhappy exit.


----------



## TraderPro (27 June 2006)

Alan Kohler interviewed three execs from Telstra on the weekend . Was all mumbo jumbo that was reported already... Nothing groundbreaking. 

But it did sound good. 

Could be good for long term investors. Nothing too exciting for short term traders.


----------



## chennyleeeee (29 June 2006)

This company seems so undervalued. This company is a fine example of what market sentiments can do to people. The company thrives like mad but the market just keeps selling and selling. Its had a pretty bad stock price history so no one is game enough to lock their money in this stock. Everyone is unhappy with this stock. Their a 22 billion dollar company, but thier able to make 8 billion dollars a year in free cash from operations. No wonder they give just good dividends.

But then again who noes, maybe the likes of Engin will take over the use of phone lines and thats that for telstra. But then again even after that you still need cable, and who has that yes telstra. haha

CHEN


----------



## yogi-in-oz (14 July 2006)

Hi folks,

TLS ..... will be alert for a period of positive cycles
from the end of July 2006:

       28072006 ..... positive cycle - finances???

       04082006 ..... significant negative cycle here.

  10-18082006 ..... expecting a strong rally here ..... 

  21-22082006 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles???


  01-04092006 ..... 2 minor and positive cycles

       15092006 ..... minor and positive - finance-related??

       19092006 ..... minor news

       26082006 ..... minor

Late- October/November looks very positive for TLS,
with another positive period, in early-January 2007.

happy days

 yogi


----------



## Fab (14 July 2006)

No point in talking up this company, the only thing that is keeping it share price of falling further is its high yield. I have seen few European telco going through this phase in Europe and none of them have gone through without big dommage.
Why then the government is trying to sell its big share if TLS was such a good buy


----------



## shinobi346 (14 July 2006)

Chennylee, their dividends come from borrowings not profit so in the long term it is unsustainable. This was widely publicised around the same time as the last dividend payout.


----------



## utedog (17 July 2006)

with TLS dividend payouts over the last few years, you need to distinguish between the special dividend it pays and the regular dividend (28c pa).  As far as I recall, only the special dividend has been paid from borrowings.  However, this special dividend is more than likely to be scrapped.  I hold a large share in TLS and I will be holding on to it.  There may be difficult times ahead, but IMO the share price has seen bottom.  Even without the special dividend, TLS still pays an excellent dividend   and IMO the share price now holds minimal downward risk.


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2006)

Yogi tipped a significant negative cycle on 4 Aug, but the sp looks to be recovering a little to me. Could it in fact be heading back above $4.00? Breaking through $3.90 was important.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yogi tipped a significant negative cycle on 4 Aug, but the sp looks to be recovering a little to me. Could it in fact be heading back above $4.00? Breaking through $3.90 was important.





Where is the love in this share? Why is dangling at $3.50>$3.51????? surely not because of the 'divi' any other share that would perform like TLS ,would have been a candidate for the butchers mincer.


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

Yogi was right.   

Just when will this be a bargain?? 

Will be a big tax rightoff for me this FY!


----------



## wavepicker (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Yogi was right.
> 
> Just when will this be a bargain??
> 
> Will be a big tax rightoff for me this FY!





From when I last checked, he was tipping a significant up move in August, or did he change his mind?????


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> From when I last checked, he was tipping a significant up move in August, or did he change his mind?????




LOL, 10-18 Aug was strong rally! Rally down.......


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (24 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> LOL, 10-18 Aug was strong rally! Rally down.......




Was the rally driver Sol Trujillo followed by a possee of mums & dads and Kennas a close third! :screwy:


----------



## x2rider (25 August 2006)

*Telstra sale - Whos buying?*

Just had a read of this tonight . 

The company says this is good news but I'm not so sure . The price is already depressed how will dumping alot of shares on th market help . 

 Are they still looking for a corner stone investor ?
 And looking to off load in sept. or october . Not the greatest months either in the share calender
 Would those Mums and dads still be willing to invest after seing there own shares drop so Much ?
 Just after some feed back 
 Cheers Martin


----------



## laurie (25 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying ?*

Once bitten twice shy   

cheers laurie


----------



## doctorj (25 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*

I can't see how selling the $8bill really achieves anything.

The conflict of interest they've admitted to will still exist as the balance will be held by the future fund.
Much of the overhang will still exist as they're only selling a portion.

I don't know if its true or not, but I've heard payments will be in installments (now and in 18 months) and punters will be entitled to the full dividend.  It makes an already high yielding stock an interesting yield play.


----------



## YELNATS (25 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*



			
				x2rider said:
			
		

> Just had a read of this tonight .
> 
> The company says this is good news but I'm not so sure . The price is already depressed how will dumping alot of shares on th market help .
> 
> ...




As still a holder from T1 & T2 days, as soon as it hits $4 again, if it ever does, I'm out of TLS. They are only guaranteeing 12 more months of dividends then they'll chop it.

The Chairman says no more whingeing about the ACCC, but has he got Burgess onside? Big mistake getting expats who no nothing about Aus business to run the company.

Regards. YN


----------



## Julia (25 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I can't see how selling the $8bill really achieves anything.
> 
> The conflict of interest they've admitted to will still exist as the balance will be held by the future fund.
> Much of the overhang will still exist as they're only selling a portion.
> ...




What you heard is correct, doctorj.  Yes to installments and yes to the full dividend.  I guess they had to provide some incentive.  I won't exactly be champing at the bit to buy any!

Julia


----------



## michael_selway (25 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*



			
				YELNATS said:
			
		

> As still a holder from T1 & T2 days, as soon as it hits $4 again, if it ever does, I'm out of TLS. They are only guaranteeing 12 more months of dividends then they'll chop it.
> 
> The Chairman says no more whingeing about the ACCC, but has he got Burgess onside? Big mistake getting expats who no nothing about Aus business to run the company.
> 
> Regards. YN




if they chop dividend, its hardly worth anything, imo the only thing holding them up is the franked dividend

thx

MS


----------



## son of baglimit (25 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*

the interesting thing now is what price the 1st instalment ?

under half price ($1.70) and the mugs will stampede the door.


----------



## taurus (26 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*

there's also talk of offering T2 shareholders a 20% discount off the issue price.  not that many T2 holders would consider it imo.  i received some as a gift - someone really hated me!  

for me it would be totally dependent on a change to industry regulation...and then whether there's enough fire (and cash) in the belly to take on optus etc in an infrastructure rollout (fttn, wireless) race.  

i used to love this company back in it's $9 days.


----------



## TraderPro (26 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*

News update on the Telstra situation:



> The Federal Government will sell almost half of its remaining stake in Telstra later this year, parking the rest of the shares in the Future Fund.



http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...1156012731231.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1



> Telstra shares may fall to new lows and there's unlikely to be a rush to buy more shares in the next sale, brokers say.
> 
> Brokers and the nation's peak shareholders' group say the federal government's decision to sell part of its remaining stake in Australia's largest telco is not the best outcome for investors.



http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...ows-say-brokers/2006/08/25/1156012735812.html

Some very interesting developments...
I wonder how the market will react to it on Monday?


----------



## Prospector (26 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*

I was invited to a Focus group to discuss an 'undisclosed' future share sale and how this was to be marketed to the general public a couple of months ago!

Guess what, it was T3!  They had a rather unusual advertising campaign designed, focussing very heavily on SMS texting as a means of promotion.  In the focus group we thought that this meant they were targetting younger people as a market for purchase, as us oldies might use SMS but we arent exactly hooked on it.  But some of the messages they were using were really stupid - as if anyone (old or young) would text to another person something like:
"hey, remember the T3 application closes soon.  Love Sally XXX"

There was some discussion about discounts too, but those details were sworn to secrecy!      

But obviously none of that might ever come to fruition, so who knows what will eventuate!

Some of the focus group were very naiive to shares, and the language the advertisers were testing was just way too complicated for the 'mum and dad' investors.  Things like  "declared dividend"   - why not just say dividend?  

Most of them didnt have a clue what this meant!

But interestingly enough, they were actually considering looking to purchase if the shares were ever released!

Will be interesting to see how the advertising unfolds!


----------



## nizar (26 August 2006)

banjo_pete said:
			
		

> do you believe it would be a buy if they sold it off???




no; they really need insto support if they want to sell it; retail investors they can forget about. how many investors did t2 have? maybe 10,000, well u can rule them out from getting burnt twice

they reckon $2 first instalment with 28c div and then the balance in 2 years. sounds familiar? YES, t2 was also the same structure but that didnt help the price. and plus look at the sharemarket; we have been bearish since may, and they say stocks with yield outperform others; well unfortunately tls hit its all-time low $3.43 this last week


----------



## GreatPig (26 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> They had a rather unusual advertising campaign designed, focussing very heavily on SMS texting as a means of promotion



Sheesh... talk about spam.

Why don't they just give the shares away in Weetbix packets. At least they'd be priced about right then, and recipients would at least get something of value from the Weetbix...

GP


----------



## 2020hindsight (27 August 2006)

*Re: Telstra sale - Whos buying?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Sheesh... talk about spam.
> 
> Why don't they just give the shares away in Weetbix packets. At least they'd be priced about right then, and recipients would at least get something of value from the Weetbix...
> 
> GP



Sell them c/- Kellogs, and on the back you can cut out your own cardboard cornflakes.
Would be great to have a crystal ball here.  Surely the future of phone companies involves megabucks.  One day TLS will come good.  Question is, I guess, when, and who is prepared to wait that long.  When? - well sometime after the Govt bites the bullet and releases the balance from Fort Knox. And TLS stands on its own two feet, no more apron strings.
Surely this partial sale T3 thing is just a political thing to make sure there is no going back.


----------



## 26 Broadway (27 August 2006)

*TLS - Telstra*

T3 in Oct/Nov.

$2.00 first up and $1.40 further on.

With the dividend artificially set high, could be worth having in the short term.


----------



## wavepicker (27 August 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> no; they really need insto support if they want to sell it; retail investors they can forget about. how many investors did t2 have? maybe 10,000, well u can rule them out from getting burnt twice
> 
> they reckon $2 first instalment with 28c div and then the balance in 2 years. sounds familiar? YES, t2 was also the same structure but that didnt help the price. and plus look at the sharemarket; we have been bearish since may, and they say stocks with yield outperform others; well unfortunately tls hit its all-time low $3.43 this last week




Hi Nizar,

TLS hit all time low last week that was correct. But the fall early last week was in some part also due to it going ex dividend 14c. During the large falls of the months of May-June, TLS actually hung in there by managing to move sideways. But then again what you would expect? This stock has been hammered over the last 6 years. The rate of change of price has to slow at some time?? 

Actually when you look at the broader market, it has also done bugger all since May as well??

Cheers


----------



## carmo (29 August 2006)

*T3*

T3 whats your thoughts?


----------



## Happy (21 September 2006)

> From ABC, September 20, 2006
> Doubt cast on Trujillo's track record
> 
> Serious questions have been raised about the competency of Telstra boss, Sol Trujillo, during his time as the chief executive officer of US West - one of America's biggest telephone companies.
> ...




Hard to understand the reason why he was hired, but I must assume that at least he was the best for the job from shortlist of candidates.


----------



## alankew (3 October 2006)

Anyone like to give their opinions on Telstra as a potential shorting opportunity in light of the recent bad publicity.I have been thinking of shorting it but it just seems to keep going up despite the negative media it is getting.Confused


----------



## YELNATS (3 October 2006)

alankew said:
			
		

> Anyone like to give their opinions on Telstra as a potential shorting opportunity in light of the recent bad publicity.I have been thinking of shorting it but it just seems to keep going up despite the negative media it is getting.Confused




TLS has been getting indifferent to bad publicity for several years now. Maybe it's a case of what goes down has to go up eventually, though it's hardly setting the world on fire. regards YN


----------



## wavepicker (3 October 2006)

alankew said:
			
		

> Anyone like to give their opinions on Telstra as a potential shorting opportunity in light of the recent bad publicity.I have been thinking of shorting it but it just seems to keep going up despite the negative media it is getting.Confused




What a great contrarian play

extreme pessimism within 95% of the crowd can only indicate one thing, that this downtrend has either finished or is very close to finishing. 

I think bears looking to go short will suffer a surprising dissapointment.


----------



## GreatPig (3 October 2006)

Appears to be building up a slow fan reversal pattern.

Could be looking to buy around these levels shortly.

GP


----------



## 2020hindsight (3 October 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> ... slow fan reversal pattern...GP



GP I appreciate that you know a heap more about this that I, but... another way to look at it....if they put the fan in reverse ... you get hit twice  :fan 
Any guesses what price the govt will go down to to ensure than the next issue doesnt burn anyone.  In which case current shares will go down as well.  what a predicament for the govt.


----------



## GreatPig (3 October 2006)

2020hindsight said:
			
		

> I appreciate that you know a heap more about this that I



A very risky assumption... 

GP


----------



## Sean K (3 October 2006)

Waiting for a push through $4.10ish to be in. Again.


----------



## binh25 (4 October 2006)

Institution buy drive the price up in recent days..Maybe they want to hedge their bet as they may have short the Telstra and worry the price will push up
once T3 are up for grab as 28 cents div on a $2 first installment is very attractive 
I think this dog will have its day long term buy for me


----------



## SevenFX (6 October 2006)

*Re: WEBCAST OUT NOW*

Telstra Webcast out now: http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/presentationsevent.cfm?ObjectID=1163#webcasts


----------



## scsl (6 October 2006)

I requested a copy of the prospectus today... But unsure as to what I will do from here. 

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously...


----------



## wavepicker (6 October 2006)

TLS has been really interesting.  The stock has seen the subject of so much negativity, that pessimism among investors is at an all time high. Just a month ago(with prices at all time lows)  the Herald Sun conducted a poll among mums and dads as to whether they would be buying into T3. The crowd gave an overwhelming no vote of 82.3%, convinced that the trend was down and the future bleak. My point here?

WHEN EVERYONE THINKS ALIKE EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO BE WRONG

Although it takes balls to do it, especially since it goes deeply against what the crowd is thinking, the art of contrary thinking consists in training your mind to ruminate directions opposite to general opinions; but weigh your conclusions in light of current events and manifestations of human behavior.

One of the 1st things to understand about markets and how and why they move is that: What seems logical is usually what will not happen.


----------



## nioka (10 October 2006)

I'm surprised that there isn't a lot of discussion on TLS today. I am interested in hearing comments on the offer ????


----------



## Warren Buffet II (10 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> I'm surprised that there isn't a lot of discussion on TLS today. I am interested in hearing comments on the offer ????




Hi Nioka,

Well, I believe the T3 offer is an interesting proposition. I will look at the prospect in more detail and probably will buy some shares in it.

WBII


----------



## carmo (10 October 2006)

I was just on ninemsn, they have a poll " Will you buy T3 shares?"
Yes...4339
No...29596


----------



## binh25 (10 October 2006)

What people vote do not translate to what people will/will not buy
People just need to look at TLS number, add some risk factor into it
and see if the price justify the purchase.

TLS is a massive and stable company so you wont see them increase their earning by 50% any time soon, more like a few percent going into the next couple of years. If their transformation process is working, ie compensate losing revenue on copper line with 3G, data and broadband then TLS is definitely a winner going forward but if the transformation doesnt work out then there is a risk you wont get your dividend and the share price may drop further.

Pick your risk level and decide whether or not to go or not to go with T3.

and the guy talking about Telstra going to 15 bucks in the next few years.....hmm just highly speculative talk and I leave it at that.


----------



## scsl (11 October 2006)

I don't know if any of you have noticed one of the ads in the top right of the forum window... The one from 'The Intelligent Investor' which starts off by saying 'Get your FREE special T3 Report now'.

At first I thought it would be worth getting to see what reasons it spells out for investing in the offer. But, a click on the ad reveals that the report is actually titled ‘5 Better Buys Than Telstra’!

I wonder what Mr. Trujillo and his Amigos would think of it...


----------



## Warren Buffet II (11 October 2006)

carmo said:
			
		

> I was just on ninemsn, they have a poll " Will you buy T3 shares?"
> Yes...4339
> No...29596




This is the beauty about T3 as less people buy, the best (lower) price that people who is buying will have to pay.

So if I am buying I want everyone else out of there 

WBII


----------



## Ferret (12 October 2006)

Due to its brilliant performance, my portfolio has become underweight in Telstra over the last few years!  Guess I'll put in for a top up in T3.

Despite goverment regulation, their must be some money to be made in owning the pipes, even if Skype and the like are going to take the traditional revenue sources.  And I'll take a punt that Telstra can get its act together and find a way to take a leading part in the new technology changes.

Ferret


----------



## pacer (12 October 2006)

Anyone got a BARGEPOLE.....so I can say "I still won't touch it"...better stuf than this circus about....totaly embarrasing to even think about goin' here...

Just had a few seconds to spare.....Freaks.....LOL


----------



## Vainglorious (12 October 2006)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> TLS has been really interesting.  The stock has seen the subject of so much negativity, that pessimism among investors is at an all time high. Just a month ago(with prices at all time lows)  the Herald Sun conducted a poll among mums and dads as to whether they would be buying into T3. The crowd gave an overwhelming no vote of 82.3%, convinced that the trend was down and the future bleak. My point here?
> 
> WHEN EVERYONE THINKS ALIKE EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO BE WRONG
> 
> ...




All good point BUT ..... markets (on average) are very good at predicting the future even when none of the participants themselves may be aware of the "big picture"  

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031018/bob9.asp


I didn't buy T1 because I was being screwed around by Telstra at the time over an overcharged phone bill.  Why own shares in a company you don't want to do business with?

I didn't buy T2 because it was overpriced.

I won't buy T3 because Telstra has major problems with its internal culture (this dates back to their debacle of getting into internet hype at the top of the bubble)  and I won't invest in any company in which people are paid more than $1m.  I believe management should be kept mean and hungary.


----------



## wavepicker (12 October 2006)

Vainglorious said:
			
		

> All good point BUT ..... markets (on average) are very good at predicting the future even when none of the participants themselves may be aware of the "big picture"
> 
> http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031018/bob9.asp
> 
> ...



I agree, the market is probably the best barometer of future economic activity. In most cases market activity precedes what happens in the economy, not the other way round as most fundamentalists believe to think.

TLS has been in decline some 6 years and that decline has preceded the upheaval going on in that company. However at some point in time, the market eventually starts to churn and we get a trend change from down to up or up to down. People love to project the current trend into the future. Whether it is up or down.

I have noticed in the past when pessimism/optimism reaches an extreme amongst the crowd, this is usually accompanied with a change in trend. Sometimes a change in primary trend, at other times only a minor trend. That’s not to say that this should be used as a timing tool. It merely suggests that we maybe near a bottom.

When optimism is high what does that mean? It means people already have their $$ invested in a company and are waiting for prices to go up and get them rich. If there is no new $$$$ to go in, then there is only one place prices will go, down. 

When pessimism reaches an extreme what does that mean?  It means that who ever was gonna sell out, has probably already done so. In that case the “strong hands” will start to do their buying. 

Re employees being paid more than $1M.  I agree, seems to be quite common in large companies however.


----------



## TraderPro (12 October 2006)

I'm going to invest some money into the float. 

I'm not going to put the whole of my life savings on it.

We'll see where it goes...

Put it under my "long term speculative portfolio + cashflow" (if they keep their promise with the dividend)


----------



## scsl (13 October 2006)

I'm having a look at the prospectus atm. No kidding, there are 7 full pages on 'Risk factors'!!   

I guess it means that if T3 turns out to be as bad an investment in the long run as the first two, investors only have themselves to blame.


----------



## nizar (13 October 2006)

TraderPro said:
			
		

> I'm going to invest some money into the float.
> 
> I'm not going to put the whole of my life savings on it.
> 
> ...




All the best with it TP,
I wont be participating myself. I can see *much better* investment opportunities at the moment.


----------



## DOC (22 October 2006)

it may not be like "Poseidon" or AUM (now CDU), 
but my mother likes it and my grandmother is buying in T3, 
so it must be good!!  ....LOL


----------



## Kauri (22 October 2006)

On a technical perspective, if you owned this share, would you say now was a good time to sell??


----------



## RichKid (22 October 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> On a technical perspective, if you owned this share, would you say now was a good time to sell??




Just thought I'd guess for the sake of theory....there could be any number of choices for an exit depending on your trading plan, for those long and just using some trend lines and swing patterns- break of last trendline or break of last major pivot low (start of last trendline), break of prior all time high (peak at middle of chart), break of minor pivot high, break of previous horizontal resistance line (at about halfway down last trendline), on failure to make new highs within 30 days etc etc. 

Note there are no price markers and we don't know if this is intraday or daily or weekly and whether what the time frame is....but I guess you were probably just trying to make a simple point Kauri!


----------



## Alfredbra (23 October 2006)

IMO telstra is **** so is the SP as it has been for the last how many years. As significantly cheaper alternatives to phone calls such as VOIP, internet etc. the more worse telstra will be in years to come. Why dont they start by closing down india or iraqi pakistan or wherever call centers they have and start hiring australians that actually know what the hell they are doing. so many people are crapped off by telstra already so goodluck anyone who buys.


----------



## Kauri (23 October 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Just thought I'd guess for the sake of theory....there could be any number of choices for an exit depending on your trading plan, for those long and just using some trend lines and swing patterns- break of last trendline or break of last major pivot low (start of last trendline), break of prior all time high (peak at middle of chart), break of minor pivot high, break of previous horizontal resistance line (at about halfway down last trendline), on failure to make new highs within 30 days etc etc.
> 
> Note there are no price markers and we don't know if this is intraday or daily or weekly and whether what the time frame is....but I guess you were probably just trying to make a simple point Kauri!




    Just that if there is no obvious technical reason to sell the other chart *at this time*, then technically there is probably no reason to buy the chart in this post *at the moment*.
_Yes, they are both Telstra, just the first one was inverted._


----------



## petal (24 October 2006)

Have received 3 Telstra prospectus this week for our family - binned the lot .We lost faith with this company when the rocket scientist took off for greener pastures after making his fiasco in China. Lost thousands on T2.


----------



## RichKid (24 October 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Just that if there is no obvious technical reason to sell the other chart *at this time*, then technically there is probably no reason to buy the chart in this post *at the moment*.
> _Yes, they are both Telstra, just the first one was inverted._



Nice technique Kauri, I find it helps to clear biases sometimes when I'm stuck in a particular mindset. btw, notice the rounding nature of the last few months price action, may spike lower thought in a final flush out- this is from my understanding of rounding bottoms, no real evidence of one yet but we have lots of TA pointers on how to trade them.


----------



## RichKid (24 October 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> I requested a copy of the prospectus today... But unsure as to what I will do from here.
> 
> On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)
> 
> When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously...




That's a very interesting anecdote, I have read of marketing companies running ad campaigns involving stooges like this on public transport- they speak loudly on their phones to someone and drop info and phrases that the marketer is trying to get out to the public- like spreading rumours. Maybe the guy was just an idiot, if his judgement is so good that he can predict the share price ($15+ in two years??), how come he's working for a co that's gone south at a rate of knots? If he'd made that call on ASF he'd be banned by now....hehehe.
Thanks for sharing that though.


----------



## Kauri (24 October 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)
> 
> When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously....




    Was he by any chance short, grey haired and have bushy eyebrows??  :evilburn:


----------



## Ken (24 October 2006)

Would people buy telstra at current prices or subscribe to T3?

I just feel the dividend is far to good to pass up.

What do people think the total T3 share price will be?

Is telstra cheap at current prices?

If dividends are kept up 10 years will see the stock pay for itself...


----------



## Warren Buffet II (25 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> Would people buy telstra at current prices or subscribe to T3?



I believe people will prefer to subscribe to T3 rather than buying at current prices, I heard that some people are actually selling their shares and buying T3.



			
				Ken said:
			
		

> I just feel the dividend is far to good to pass up.



The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.



			
				Ken said:
			
		

> What do people think the total T3 share price will be?



I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70



			
				Ken said:
			
		

> Is telstra cheap at current prices?



I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

I have seen comments here about VOIP, Vodafone etc etc and how this is going to end Telstra, that people have no idea about Telcos at all. I'll just give you an example, Broadband, people are saying I am not taking Telstra Broadband anymore I am moveing to ISP XX, it is OK but ISP XX has to pay Telstra every month for the line that goes to your place, in most cases we are talking about 30%-40% of the price charge but the ISP to you. I can go on and on about this...



			
				Ken said:
			
		

> If dividends are kept up 10 years will see the stock pay for itself...




Not only that, if Telstra anytime decides to demerge some of their businesses I believe T3 will be paid by itself. I'll give you this Telstra book price currently is $2.10.

But at the same time I'll be more than happy if no many people buy into T3.

WBII


----------



## RichKid (25 October 2006)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> I believe people will prefer to subscribe to T3 rather than buying at current prices, I heard that some people are actually selling their shares and buying T3.
> 
> 
> The *dividend is very good* and in contrast to what some people believe I think *it will increase* next year or after that.
> ...




WBII, would you be able to flesh out some of the reasoning behind your initial comments in your last post please? While I understand that these are merely your opinions it would be helpful if you could reveal the basis of your reasoning, while you have done this for your latter statements a bit more detail in your initial statements would be useful. Thank you.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (25 October 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> WBII, would you be able to flesh out some of the reasoning behind your initial comments in your last post please? While I understand that these are merely your opinions it would be helpful if you could reveal the basis of your reasoning, while you have done this for your latter statements a bit more detail in your initial statements would be useful. Thank you.




Hi RichKid,

Sure, no problem:

****The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.

14% for the $2 you pay today (excluding final instalment) I believe is higher that any other share on offer at the moment, who pays more than that?

(0.14 + 0.14) / $2 = 14% Franked 100% @ 30%, so you are low income you can even get an 18.2% divds

The 28c divds in based on the last paid divd which was 14c, but before that it was 20c twice, there are chances that the divds even increase.


****I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70:

Check some articles:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20560016-664,00.html

****I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

Everyone knows Telstra is a monopoly in many Australian places and in fixed lines, there is no other company that offers copper lines to residences, which means any company installing any service over those lines will pay the toll.

Any more questions Richkid?

WBII


----------



## Ken (25 October 2006)

I have applied for 10,000 T3 shares.

i am getting them through margin loan on my bhp shares, and am comfortable that the dividend will cover the interest on the $2 intial payment.  

I will have paid the intial installment off in this time, and bhp and rio will be booming. I am firm believer in TLS for the future, and believe that for company that offers such good divs the possibilty of the share price doubling in the next 5-10 years is high, if they get their **** together.

thats my opinion and believe theres still a very rocky road ahead.


----------



## RichKid (26 October 2006)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi RichKid,
> 
> Sure, no problem:.............
> ..........
> ...




Thanks WB, that's great, I had an idea of what you were saying but I thought it useful to have these issues fleshed out further. In relation to the last point, it's important to remember that the political climate and ACCC intervention in pricing schemes may take something of the monopolistic power away from TLS so perhaps it should not be considered the same as any other monopoly due to the high level of political interest in this market. Just a thought as many people just make assumptions about monopolies when there aren't many true monoplies left these days with true monopolistic power (eg ASX, TOL?, WDC?, AWB?). Besides, how important are these copper lines to TLS over the next decade or so? This is a vexed issue. Will a monopoly in that specific market be of much value in the future?

If you have a look at the commsec website www.comsec.com.au/t3 there is a comparison of alternative leveraged products, I was doing some reading to see if I should buy in myself. Note that comsec is trying to sell you something so take it with a grain of salt. There is another T3 thread on ASF if anyone wants to go into more detail about the prospectus and T3 strategies.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (26 October 2006)

RichKid said:
			
		

> Just a thought as many people just make assumptions about monopolies when there aren't many true monoplies left these days with true monopolistic power (eg ASX, TOL?, WDC?, AWB?). Besides, how important are these copper lines to TLS over the next decade or so? This is a vexed issue. Will a monopoly in that specific market be of much value in the future?




Hi RichKid,

I agree with what you are saying but I also believe that Telstra will keep its current monopoly in copper lines at least for the next 5 to 10 years because basically there is no replacement available for that technology yet. I know there are techs like wireless broadband but that kind of tech will need about 2 or 3 years just to take off from today, in the meantime Telstra will keep generating revenue from them.

Also remember that Telstra is the largest media company in Australia, they offer phone lines, mobiles, Internet Broadband, printing media (sensis, white and yellow pages etc) and TV media (Foxtel), and one of the comments I pickup yesterday from a newspaper is that Telstra could be even interested in  fairfax newspapers once all this T3 affair ends and the media reform get on its way.

I believe there is potential in the long run and that even T2 people could benefit from T3, so I am personally applying for T3 because I see this company as a value investment. Telstra sounds like any company that the real Warren Buffett have invested in the past: out-of-favour, low value, monopoly, I'd say good management and opportunities available.

WBII


----------



## Ken (26 October 2006)

who thinks telstra will be below $4 in 10 years?


----------



## scsl (26 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> who thinks telstra will be below $4 in 10 years?



As bad as Telstra may be at the moment, I think this is highly unlikely. Telstra is a major player in the telecommunications sector and a well known brand. 

Although it would make sense for potential customers to steer clear of Telstra because of the bad media, this is not the case in real life. Telstra continues to see high growth in its internet/broadband division. The cost cutting will not go to waste and should see Telstra come out as a 'leaner and meaner' company. 

Telstra is a good long term buy, but if I was to buy, I would buy later down the track. For this company to be below $4 in 5 years (not to mention 10), A LOT of things would have to go really wrong.   

I say this, despite not ever owning Telstra shares. I won't be buying any in T3 either.


----------



## Ken (26 October 2006)

soo many opinions on telstra.

its good to get different points of view.

With any company majority comes down to management and decision making.

If everyone is heading in the one direction i dont see any reason why things cant turn around. with the right people at the top change is happening.

Due to the mum and dad investors losing big time on telstra over the years its had more bad publicity than most.  I am sure if you went through a woodside or a maquarie bank there would be areas that could make them more profitable for shareholders. 

I see telstra as a different company now that the board is not government owned.

I just dont see how a company could perform at its best when its run for the people, and not the shareholders.

anyways

i am subscribing.

12000 units please, hope i get em...


----------



## scsl (27 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> 12000 units please, hope i get em...



I think you can put them down as being yours already! It would be very interesting if you were to be scaled back.


----------



## TraderPro (27 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> anyways
> 
> i am subscribing.
> 
> 12000 units please, hope i get em...




Ken... just wondering...

Are you in for the long term growth or are you in for the short term yield?


----------



## Ken (27 October 2006)

at 21 years of age i plan on holding them for 5 years plus and beyond.

re-investing the dividends into stocks i find attractive.

bad plan?  I believe this is a good place to start, i dont have the time to be a day trader as such or do i want the headaches of investing in property and having a big loan to pay back.

If telstra falls down after the 18 month period i will be buying more again.

telstra is not the only stock in my port folio though.


----------



## trading_rookie (30 October 2006)

I've looked at TLS as a long term buy.

The dividends paid out on my T1+T2 shares (1997-current) has been good! Actually a lot better than any other stock I own. Infact, you could say div + current sp has me in the black not red.

T3 incl. discount + free shares and installments adding up to about AUD3.50 has my attention.

The negative is the 15% still owned by the Future fund (obviously the final amount will depend on how much public interest there will be for T3) and what will happen to these shares in 2 yrs time. 

Not to mention the ever present ACCC forcing Telstra to surrender it's networks and services to it's competitors for a pittance. Last one I read about was Unwired claiming Telstra was undercutting it! 

If Telstra does eventually end up de-merging into a few subsidaries then the prospect of automatically owning shares in these 'spin offs' sounds enticing indeed.


----------



## Ken (30 October 2006)

the things are headed the second installment could be $2 or are people buying up now so they can use the stock to margin loan on t3.

BT investments will not let me use the full extent of my margin loan capacity as i am going in the public offer...


----------



## Ken (31 October 2006)

TLS up to $4 surely the second installment is not going to be over $2....


----------



## YELNATS (31 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> TLS up to $4 surely the second installment is not going to be over $2....




Like many of us, I threw my T3 prospectus straight into the bin about a week ago. But on reflection I have just sold my T2 shares at a capital loss, with the attendant CGT advantages, and will take up the T3 offer as soon as the funds are available before Nov 9th.

There seems to be a bit of a turnaround emerging on TLS. Regards YN.


----------



## TraderPro (1 November 2006)

Yeah... TLS has moved about 45 cents +ve since its lows in August...

Is this strong uptrend going to continue?
What is the next resistance/support point?

I've heard that the stock price movement was due to the strong uptake of T3 shares... is this true?


----------



## scsl (2 November 2006)

TraderPro said:
			
		

> Yeah... TLS has moved about 45 cents +ve since its lows in August...
> 
> Is this strong uptrend going to continue?
> What is the next resistance/support point?
> ...



Yes, that's correct. More than half the $8 billion that is being offered has already been accounted for. Nearly half a billion went to Japanese investors and $4 billion was pre-sold to clients of brokers and financial planners. Not only is the high yield attractive, but clients of brokers are using the opportunity to utilise instalment structures. Macquarie has gone a step further and created its own series of instalment products. 

I think people are starting to realise that T3 might be worth investing money in (hence the run up in sp recently) and so retail demand in the offer is likely to be pretty strong - at least $5-6 billion easily. This doesn't leave much for institutional investors, who will demand a lot of stock and thus have a big say in the final pricing. Organisers could leave the offer as it is so that T3 will turn out to be a huge success, but it is likely that demand will be very strong that it will be justifiable to sell more stock.

Also, the lack of news about regulation being an impediment and negative comments/media from and surrounding the Telstra executives has helped.


----------



## rosie (2 November 2006)

TLS needs to break thru the dble top it has ran into for mine.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (2 November 2006)

The reason TLS has been experiencing a huge increase in the last week is because institutions need to show to the goverment that they have been "loyal" to Telstra and that they hold Telstra shares. There are some requirements from the goverment to institutions to show this characteristics in order to get some installment allocations.

Last Monday when the price shot up to almost $5 was because one of the institutions was short in Telstra and bought close to $100m in shares, I think it was $110 and so the rest of institutions did the same to secure T3 installments from the goverment.

Now, what I read is that once these institutions stop buying, the price will go down to the lowest price possible because in that way T3 will be the cheapest possible as well.

Well, this is what I read and saw so let see what happens in the next few weeks.

WBII


----------



## Ken (2 November 2006)

is it possible to go short on telstra....


----------



## scsl (2 November 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> is it possible to go short on telstra....



Yes, you can short sell Telstra with shares and CFDs.


----------



## TraderPro (3 November 2006)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> The reason TLS has been experiencing a huge increase in the last week is because institutions need to show to the goverment that they have been "loyal" to Telstra and that they hold Telstra shares. There are some requirements from the goverment to institutions to show this characteristics in order to get some installment allocations.
> 
> Last Monday when the price shot up to almost $5 was because one of the institutions was short in Telstra and bought close to $100m in shares, I think it was $110 and so the rest of institutions did the same to secure T3 installments from the goverment.
> 
> WBII




The price didn't shoot to $5?!?! You had me excited there for a minute hehehe...

I think you meant $4...

As for the requirements from the government - are these documented somewhere? I don't remember reading about this...


----------



## GreatPig (3 November 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> Yes, you can short sell Telstra with shares and CFDs.



And warrants.

With T3 coming up, I think the government will want to see a high price set for the second installment. After that's set, they'll let it go to the dogs 

GP


----------



## pacer (4 November 2006)

Still trying to find the "care factor'........I'll leave to those that do....just here for a look anyway......onya.


----------



## Fab (6 November 2006)

Any idea when shares are due to be credited to the account for T allocation ?


----------



## Dutchy3 (22 November 2006)

Buying the Jan 07 CALL options on this one.

Looking for a quick and dirty reaction to these levels.


----------



## Ken (22 November 2006)

does call option mean you think it will go down.

T3 seems to be firing.

has anyone offloaded there TLSCA things.... @ 2.30 or above the $2 issue price or havent the public been allocated shares.


----------



## Fab (23 November 2006)

I think the idea with tls is to strip the dividend so the sell off might start after the first div payment or for sure after the second if there is no guarantee of the same level of div or if the share price has not appreciated much


----------



## Ken (23 November 2006)

tlsca hit 2.34.  i'd be tempted  take profits.  but holding long.

i got 5750 out if 6000 shares i apllied for.


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 November 2006)

I need this one to rally to secure a profit. Closed on its low today and Market Depth is not supportive of a rally, on the close.

I will need to close out my position by end DEC 06 so need the price up around 4.00 by then


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (23 November 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> I need this one to rally to secure a profit. Closed on its low today and Market Depth is not supportive of a rally, on the close.
> 
> I will need to close out my position by end DEC 06 so need the price up around 4.00 by then




Dutchy3 ,sorry about my witty comment bought TLS @ 3.59 the other day.........but tell me if it does not reach 4 bucks does that mean your evicted from the caravan park again! Lets hope MBP is your beacon! G'nite ( I sleep onthe park-bench these days!!!!)


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 November 2006)

Hi 3

Happy to report that the last time I spent too much time on a park bench was in Carins in the 1990's during my mis spent youth. Right at the time of the pilots strike so a good many young backpackers had too much time and nowhere to go ....

Ive already my sell order in the market ... this looks to me as though it could react higher although the sell down on the close today has me on full alert ...


----------



## Ken (8 December 2006)

T3 shares are booming....

WHY???

and how much further can they go they  are up 48 cents in a month

tempted to take the profits.  I only bought for the dividend though.... so i am sticking with that, i guess.


Sol Trujino has made a killing.  he bought a **** load of them super mario is killing it.....


----------



## Ken (8 December 2006)

now 2.52....


WTF.....


----------



## Sean K (9 December 2006)

Long term investors might be interested in TLS's current situation. Big rounded bottom appearing and approaching resistcne at $4.00 again. A break through here would be a breakout I reckon. MACD looking very good, about to cross signal line on way up. 

(holding - too many!   )


----------



## Dutchy3 (9 December 2006)

Quick and dirty reaction back to 4.00ish has seen the JAN 3.94 CALLS improve nicely ... sold down 30% of my position on the close Friday. 4.00 could still prove resistance at this point.


----------



## Sean K (12 December 2006)

Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> Quick and dirty reaction back to 4.00ish has seen the JAN 3.94 CALLS improve nicely ... sold down 30% of my position on the close Friday. 4.00 could still prove resistance at this point.



No where near confirmed but broken through this am, trading $4.04. This happened a couple of months ago and was quickly shot down, so I'm not getting too excited. Still like the rounded bottom and if it can hold above this, high end technical traders will be jumping all over it.


----------



## Ken (12 December 2006)

T3 share price.

Any one taken their profits..?

I said to myself go long term on them...

They are almost 5 grand up for me....

Could the T3 installments get to $3?

I thought $2.50 was high....

I can really see them dropping in the ass still......

If they are $2.70 by friday i am taking the  profits and running.


----------



## Sean K (14 December 2006)

Holding above $4.00.

Could it be the start of the recovery of the telco beheamoth? Probably not, but I'd like to look back at this time and say 'hey - that was it!!!!!!'   

Technically it's looking good.


----------



## Dutchy3 (14 December 2006)

Hi kennas

I refer your previous post re Rounding Bottom ... totally agree. I've just closed out a bought JAN 07 3.94 CALL position that I entered some weeks ago and expect that TLS will deliver many such opportunities over the next 12 -18 months. Of all the decent option stocks this one is the most predictable at the moment ...


----------



## Sean K (24 December 2006)

Has held above $4.00 and hopefully that's the last we see of a number 3 in front of the sp......

Next resistance on the upside at $4.50 and lots of noise between there and Kipps note on his avatar. Is that ramping kipp?? he he   It's going to take some good news and market conditions to find it's way through there I reckon. Looks like a pretty safe play short term to me. Maybe Phil Burgess can talk his mum into buying some and we'll be ok. When she gets on we know it's going alright!


----------



## wavepicker (24 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Has held above $4.00 and hopefully that's the last we see of a number 3 in front of the sp......
> 
> Next resistance on the upside at $4.50 and lots of noise between there and Kipps note on his avatar. Is that ramping kipp?? he he   It's going to take some good news and market conditions to find it's way through there I reckon. Looks like a pretty safe play short term to me. Maybe Phil Burgess can talk his mum into buying some and we'll be ok. When she gets on we know it's going alright!




Share you sentiments kennas. Was bullish this stock 4-6 months ago and trading it numerous long and short as it was base building.  I remember opinion poles in the newspapers with regard to this stock and 90% of respondents said they would not buy T3, not to mention the negativity in the mainstream media. Just the sort of pessimism seen at bottoms.

Although long term bullish this stock, I would expect it to continue to base build in the coming months and retest the lows, but not make new lows and have thus sold out my position. Will look at buying on the dips.

Cheers


----------



## Ken (28 December 2006)

T3 installments are expected to be one of the best performing blue chip stocks according to the smart investor magazine.

i suppose big dividends would already account for the most of that profit.

if telstra gets to $4.50, what will the T3 installments be... around $2.90?


----------



## Sean K (15 January 2007)

TLS has just started to break out of a sideways consolidation period after breaking through $4.00 and out of the long term downward trend. Next resistance at $4.50 where I expect it to pause.


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2007)

For those following TLS, it's been a pleasing ride since bottoming out and then watching it unfold as expected. 

Has definately broken that short term resistance at $4.15 ish. 

Still not breaking BB on the upside so hasn't run to hard in that department, but Stochastics say it has. For the 'rounded' bottom to continue up to the final target of $5.00, it probably needs a few days of consolidation which I expect to occur around resistance at $4.50......

Going to plan so far, but of course the whole market has been going great so not sure if this is responding to it's own revaluation, or just following the market........

Chart update.

(holding)


----------



## nomore4s (16 January 2007)

Big day for TLS, especially TLSCA. Could be pushing that $4.50 shortly


----------



## Sean K (16 January 2007)

Yeah, one of the biggest single day gains for some time. Encouraging for long term holders. I bought T2   and then kept averaging down - all the way down! I think my average price is $5.00 so I've got a bit to go....luckily my girlfirend used to work for Telstra and she got a whole bunch of T1 which are now in my name consolidated with the rest so it's looking ok now. I'm still not confident in this being a start performer down the track. Looking for an exit, especially if it gets back to my $5 mark. All the best!


----------



## nomore4s (16 January 2007)

I only got in on T3 so I'm looking very good at the moment. I'm not sure of the long term prospects either. Am weighing up whether to wait for the dividend or not, if price keeps pushing up to over $3.00 may just take the profits and run.


----------



## ROE (16 January 2007)

nomore4s said:
			
		

> I only got in on T3 so I'm looking very good at the moment. I'm not sure of the long term prospects either. Am weighing up whether to wait for the dividend or not, if price keeps pushing up to over $3.00 may just take the profits and run.




I take the the profit and run on T3.. nearly 50% gain, once the dividend is paid and people exercise their warrants and take profit this dog will go back to the Zoo  .. their earning trend has steadily going downward so there is no justification for this stock to shoot for the star.

Judgment day will be 15 Feb on 1st quarter result to see if they make any in road into the next G stuff if it look bad this dog could be in for another long hard year.

I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.

I exit a little bit short at $2.65 and for a moment there it going to $2.60 and I said beauty this dog could head back down further and I can pick it up again to make a quick buck but I was wrong, still pocket 33% so I'm not complaining.


----------



## Ken (16 January 2007)

What should T3 shares realistically be priced at?

I am thinking of selling up as telecommunications stocks have had a good run and believe market is due for a correction in these sorts of stocks.

On the other hand the government will be getting a heap back in tax.... so I dont know whats worth doing...

Hold long long term...

or take profits...


----------



## louie (17 January 2007)

Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike. 

There must be more to it than what we all know.


----------



## TheRage (17 January 2007)

louie said:
			
		

> Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike.
> 
> There must be more to it than what we all know.




Fundamentally speaking how could earnings improve so suddenly on this dog of a stock. The companies margins are still the same unless line rentals have gone up with out me knowing. Sales are probably roughly equivalent but perhaps a little higher due to the bigpond division. The only real area for improvement would come from a restructuring and cost cutting. While Sol has set out to do this it is unlikely he has achieved anything dramatic in such a short timeframe. I may be proven wrong but my feeling is that the company will report earnings similar to their projections. If they end up having this wonderful result I will be wondering where the profit upgrade went to as an ASX announcement and I think ACC might be thinking the same thing. My feeling is that the Sp is being pushed up by the positive sentiment surrounding this stock. I can't help but feel that some further finger burning might be on the way.

Disclaimer: this is not financial advice merely my opinion.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (17 January 2007)

Hi All,

I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:

1) Yield driven funds, TLSCA is expected to pay 14c which at current price is 4.8% + Franked divs = 6.25. This yield is at the top of the table and is above usual yield-stocks like banks. So Imputation funds which are looming these days are just racing to get in.

2) Why people keeps thinking that TLS is only about land lines?, they have more than one revenue stream and remember that even if that one is getting less revenue it will stop where the other ISPs and customers use the service.

3) From the beginning I thought the goverment was giving away TLSCA at these price and that was the main reason to invest in it. TLS book value is $2, so installments were sold at book price.

WBII


----------



## ROE (17 January 2007)

I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:

1) Yield driven funds, TLSCA is expected to pay 14c which at current price is 4.8% + Franked divs = 6.25. This yield is at the top of the table and is above usual yield-stocks like banks. So Imputation funds which are looming these days are just racing to get in.


2) Why people keeps thinking that TLS is only about land lines?, they have more than one revenue stream and remember that even if that one is getting less revenue it will stop where the other ISPs and customers use the service.

that where they draw majority of their revenue, a 2% decline in line rental area equivalent to 5-10 on other stream.


3) From the beginning I thought the goverment was giving away TLSCA at these price and that was the main reason to invest in it. TLS book value is $2, so installments were sold at book price.

Where the hell do you get that crazy number, this one coming from comsec (Aspect Huntley Data)

Book Value($) 	0.77 	0.86 	0.80 	0.90 	1.03 	1.10 	1.20 	1.22 	1.20 	1.01


----------



## ROE (17 January 2007)

louie said:
			
		

> Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike.
> 
> There must be more to it than what we all know.




Dont forget this 1st/2nd Q maybe good because it's leading up to XMAS sale, next few quarter maybe crab.


----------



## ROE (17 January 2007)

Ken said:
			
		

> What should T3 shares realistically be priced at?
> 
> I am thinking of selling up as telecommunications stocks have had a good run and believe market is due for a correction in these sorts of stocks.
> 
> ...




Tax shouldnt be an issue when you make a big profit...
Imagine this you have 45% gain on TLS, you think the stock is over price and dont sell because you afraid of paying tax. 

Stock trade down to previous level then then went back again 

had you sell at 45% gain, you pay your tax, pick the stock up again when they are low, you make a decent return.


----------



## TheRage (17 January 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi All,
> 
> I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:
> 
> ...




Firstly I don't buy on yield only. I agree that Managed funds may do so and that is their perogative but hardly a reason for me to consider investing in the company.

Secondly I agree that Line Rental isn't the only revenue component but perhaps a large one. Until we know whether this will be fixed under ACC how can you accurately forecast future earnings growth. To me this puts a lot of risk into this stock. Once this issue is resolved I may infact buy into Telstra if the decision is favourable. God knows I may have to offset the increase line charge that could occur if there was no regulation. I can certainly see why WBII you might like this company. It comes across as a monopoly has plenty of free cash flow etc. But to me the unkowns outweigh the positives. Share price is being driven up on greed not a fundamental shift in the companies earnings.

BTW well done to those who bought into T3.


----------



## Buster (17 January 2007)

Hey nomore4,



			
				nomore4s said:
			
		

> Big day for TLS, especially TLSCA. Could be pushing that $4.50 shortly



Kenna's has also been calling this in for a little while now.. seems there is some support from the insto's/analysts.. Good work fella's



			
				The Age (Jan 17 2007) said:
			
		

> Credit Suisse this week increased its price target for Telstra from $4.78 a share to $5.05.
> 
> MMC Asset Management's portfolio manager, Eric Metanomski, agreed the stock had benefited as brokers and institutional investors, who had previously been bearish about its fortunes, had changed their sentiment.
> 
> "These sorts of significant moves in stocks tend to occur when there is a fairly significant sentiment change," said Mr Metanomski, whose firm has about 7 per cent of its $600 million in funds under management invested in Telstra.



Full article here.. http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...big-oneday-jump/2007/01/16/1168709754491.html

I like ROE's comment below..



			
				ROE said:
			
		

> I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.



Seems to have shot out of the barriers, I guess it's fairly obvious that there is some good news to be announced that I as a mug am not yet privy to..   My 'portfolio' is a little TLS heavy at the minute so I will be looking to 'unwind' around the $5 mark if it gets there..

Cheers,

Buster

P.S I Hold..


----------



## Sean K (17 January 2007)

I think this could be benefiting from funds rejigging their portfolios taking some money out of the resource/materials sector and into yield plays.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (17 January 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.




I don't think so. There are huge incentives to keep the installments until the end and get the bonus shares which for example for a person that invest $10,000 = 5000 shares means 200 free shares, at current prices that means 
200 X 4.38 = $876 or 8.76% return.

Current 50% is a big return, but I will wait and collect the didvs which for the example above will be something like:
14c in March, 14c in Sep, 14c in March/08 = 0.42c
= 5000 * 0.42 = $2100  = 21% before franked divds or
= 5000 * 0.42 = $2100 * 1.3 = $2730 = 27.30% after franked divds.

So in the case that this 50% gain stays, people will get a total return in the top side of
8.76% + 27.30% + 50% =  86.06%

So, I'll take the risk and keep them 

WBII


----------



## nomore4s (17 January 2007)

TheRage said:
			
		

> If they end up having this wonderful result I will be wondering where the profit upgrade went to as an ASX announcement and I think ACC might be thinking the same thing.




I heard on the late night news last night that there is speculation that Telstra is going to annouce a profit upgrade shortly. I'm not sure how accurate this is - you can't belive everything you see on TV.

But it maybe some of the driving force behind the increasing sp.

Again I'm fairly new at this game so, don't take my word for it.


----------



## Sean K (17 January 2007)

TLS rapidy approaching my first price target of $4.50 - perhaps too rapid. Has just gone outside the BB to the up, which puts it as a short term sell. Perhaps this, linked to the $4.50 resistance, might make it pause for a moment. There is going to be lots of static between $4.50 and $5.00 by the look of the chart. There was lots of buying and selling in there in the past, and perhaps some punters will be taking profits (or break evens!) 

Interesting to read the theories on why this has run so hard. Could have just been technical buying after the clear break through $4.00, or reweighting of portfolios into 'safer' stocks that won't halve during a commodities led correction perhaps....or, Maybe Sol has changed it around. Perhaps Phil B has talked his Mum into buying some, and she's the cause?


----------



## TheRage (17 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Perhaps Phil B has talked his Mum into buying some, and she's the cause?




Don't forget the cabbie down the street. I had a fella who drove me home from the car group who I get my car serviced with the other day say to me "how about those Telstra shares". It seems even the general punters are keen on TLS.


----------



## louie (17 January 2007)

nomore4s said:
			
		

> I heard on the late night news last night that there is speculation that Telstra is going to annouce a profit upgrade shortly. I'm not sure how accurate this is - you can't belive everything you see on TV.
> 
> But it maybe some of the driving force behind the increasing sp.



Another reason could be a quote from this mornings paper.

"_Rumours of a possible property spin-off of the company's old switching stations also lifted sentiment." 

A senior trader at a major European brokerage said: "It could potentially be worth quite a bit because they have 6700 of these properties at about 400 square metres each, scattered throughout Australia."  

_
If thats the case, the Telstra business might be so, so. 
But these Telstra properties would be worth squillions.
.


----------



## UMike (17 January 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> I don't think so. *There are huge incentives to keep the installments until the end and get the bonus share*s which for example for a person that invest $10,000 = 5000 shares means 200 free shares, at current prices that means
> 200 X 4.38 = $876 or 8.76% return.
> ....
> So, I'll take the risk and keep them
> WBII



I'm shooting for the bonus shares also.


----------



## Ken (17 January 2007)

brokers are bullish on Telstra, and thats not such agood thing.

look at BHP when brokers thought they were going to boom.

hows that $35 price target looking....

having said that,  the government is making up for the reduced telstra price sale with all the capital gains they are getting.


----------



## ROE (18 January 2007)

Ken said:
			
		

> brokers are bullish on Telstra, and thats not such agood thing.
> 
> look at BHP when brokers thought they were going to boom.
> 
> ...




The higher they praise the harder they fall, if earning fall below expected 26 cents this year hmm wouldnt imagine the share price.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (18 January 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> The higher they praise the harder they fall, if earning fall below expected 26 cents this year hmm wouldnt imagine the share price.




I can see you didn't buy any T3 shares and you are bitting yourself for that.
Just let us enjoy the ride for those who did.

In a positive note:
50% reached today. I think we might see another 10c before ex-divds day.

WBII


----------



## ROE (18 January 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> I can see you didn't buy any T3 shares and you are bitting yourself for that.
> Just let us enjoy the ride for those who did.
> 
> In a positive note:
> ...




You didnt read my earlier post I bought T3 but sold out already because this baby will drop again and I pick up again for cheap and pocket the profit differences.


----------



## ROE (22 January 2007)

any prediction for TLS this week?
North or South?


----------



## Sean K (22 January 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> any prediction for TLS this week?
> North or South?



Or sideways....

I expect consolidation just under $4.50. Not sure when their market update is due, but I think that will have a significant impact on the company up or down. If Sol delivers an upbeat assessment after talking the company down for so long then it'll be looking very good. This might have been part of their tactics all along. Bag the crap out of it, drive the price down, then talk it up as a turn around story due to the review and changes they put in place..... Cynical kennas.


----------



## ROE (23 January 2007)

*Signs of a desperate TLS*

I got a bill today from TLS after disconnecting all services from
Telstra for the last 4 years saying I applied for a suppress number and residential address and charge me $32 for it.

I called them up and said i'm not paying a cent, they pass the bucks back to my provider who I bundle the phone and everything with. I rang them back and said they never do such a thing and any Bill sent out by Telstra is Telstra problem and any charge I incur with my phone line will be bill my my provide and not Telstra

so I rang Telstra again and confront them and again passing the bucks to my provider, at this stage I'm pretty pissed and ask my provider to send me an official letter stating their claims, arm with that information I came back to Telstra and guess what the bastard back down and cancel my charges.

When tactic like this apply to a big business like Telstra, they are in desperate need of a few bucks from their customer to maintain their revenues. (and in the process driven their customers else where and lose future revenues)

I thought I'm the odd one out but I am not a few guys at work has the same problem with different billing matters which they up charge for something they didnt apply for.

Time for me to avoid Telstra shares unless they selling at book value


----------



## Warren Buffet II (23 January 2007)

Well, I was with another provider and I passed all my services to Telstra 2 months ago. I got good service and happy with them.  

WBII


----------



## ROE (24 January 2007)

Guess Investors doesnt like TLS when they take ACCC to court.
Big drop today on T3 today or some smart investor take their profit and buy back when it's at bargain basement price.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (25 January 2007)

This is a comment from an interview by Alan Kohler to Ivor Ries, telco analyst with EL & C Baillieu, www.eurekareport.com.au

So you’re saying that Telstra is a target for a private equity takeover? 

Most definitely, yes. I’d imagine that most of the world’s big private equity houses would be doing their sums on Telstra. 

Do you think it’s a $5 stock? 

Certainly most of our valuations are sort of 50 ¢ either side of $5 but that’s … we’re applying pure old-style investment analysis for passive investors. For a private equity person who wanted to buy it, you know, they could comfortably pay $6 or $6.50 and still walk away with a very high return on their equity. 

WBII


----------



## ROE (25 January 2007)

Keep dreaming on that price.. no private equity going to buy a company that are heavily regulated and too many uncertainty going into the future....

If the rumour was true why TLS price has been going south every since Monday?

TLS will slip below $4 by the year end


----------



## ROE (27 January 2007)

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...dband-price-war/2007/01/26/1169788692590.html


----------



## ROE (7 February 2007)

*hmmm*

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,21183574^15306^^nbv^,00.html

she is one of the better CIO around, she transformed Qantas IT system beautifuly... this is not a good sign for TLS when one the good staff just get up and go.


----------



## malachii (7 February 2007)

As someone who deals with the system she set up at Qantas everyday I wouldn't necessarily say that she transformed Qantas IT beautifully!!  She also left Q for Telstra a few weeks after re-signing a very large contract with Telstra.  Hmmmm - it makes you wonder!

malachii


----------



## TheRage (15 February 2007)

So Telstra have released H1 report. Revenue is up 2% but operating expenses are also up 9% and most importantly Net profit after tax is down 20.1%. Apart from struggling to read the poor pdf release due to the grainey quality, these results were expected and probably won't affect Sp too much. The thing I really hate about Telstra announcements is that they always talk about where they are superior to others. They never seem to mention where they can improve.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (15 February 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...dband-price-war/2007/01/26/1169788692590.html




Where is little ROE today? I guess he is trying to find some article about Telstra.

TLS is getting close to 5% up today.

WBII


----------



## nomore4s (15 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Where is little ROE today? I guess he is trying to find some article about Telstra.
> 
> TLS is getting close to 5% up today.
> 
> WBII




lol, He is quite negative about Telstra isn't he. At least the market doesn't seem to agree with him at the moment.

TLS up 17c today


----------



## nomore4s (15 February 2007)

mmm very good day closed above $4.50 & TLSCA above $3.10

Kennas will be a happy man in Mexico


----------



## TheRage (15 February 2007)

nomore4s said:
			
		

> lol, He is quite negative about Telstra isn't he. At least the market doesn't seem to agree with him at the moment.
> 
> TLS up 17c today




To be honest I think like ROE on this stock. I can see why WBII likes the cashflow with this stock and the fact that it is a monopoly but the exuberant enthusiasm that the share is currently experiencing has no merit. The share announces a decrease in NPAT of 26% and it goes up 5%. We have become so conditioned to this share performing so badly that when the announcement isn't quite as bad as we thought it might be we reward it by pushing the Sp higher. A simple 3 year analysis of the stock on forecasted earnings reveals the true picture. Forecast earnings in 2009 are 27.3 cents. On current price $4.50 PE ratio will be 16.48 which is higher than the current PE of 15.4. Average 9 year PE is 18 so even at this level SP in 3 years on projected earnings is $4.91. Shareholder return = 4.91-4.5 = 41 cents. 0.41/4.5 = 9.1% return / 3 years = 3.03% return. If we factor in forecasted dividends which are being paid partly out of earnings we get a better return .26+.26+.27 =0.79. Overall return = 0.79 +.41 = 1.2. 1.2/4.5 = 26%/3years =8.88% yearly return. Adding back franking credits and the return becomes better again. The problem is that there are better opportunities out there. Net Tangile Assets seems to be steadily declining and current liabilities as well as long term liabilities keep getting bigger. Current Liabilities are almost twice current assets at 8 billion and will continue to grow over the next few years. Long term debt is 11.4 billion dollars which would take 4 years of current earnings to pay off providing that no dividends were paid. If telstra cleared all its debt it would take 6.5 yrs to payoff providing no dividends were paid and assuming flat earnings. 

Anyway I am glad that those who own Telstra including my father are starting to see some increase in Sp expecially after it's poor performance. Just remember where the exit sign is when the final instalment payment on the T3 offer is due.


----------



## michael_selway (15 February 2007)

TheRage said:
			
		

> To be honest I think like ROE on this stock. I can see why WBII likes the cashflow with this stock and the fact that it is a monopoly but the exuberant enthusiasm that the share is currently experiencing has no merit. The share announces a decrease in NPAT of 26% and it goes up 5%. We have become so conditioned to this share performing so badly that when the announcement isn't quite as bad as we thought it might be we reward it by pushing the Sp higher. A simple 3 year analysis of the stock on forecasted earnings reveals the true picture. Forecast earnings in 2009 are 27.3 cents. On current price $4.50 PE ratio will be 16.48 which is higher than the current PE of 15.4. Average 9 year PE is 18 so even at this level SP in 3 years on projected earnings is $4.91. Shareholder return = 4.91-4.5 = 41 cents. 0.41/4.5 = 9.1% return / 3 years = 3.03% return. If we factor in forecasted dividends which are being paid partly out of earnings we get a better return .26+.26+.27 =0.79. Overall return = 0.79 +.41 = 1.2. 1.2/4.5 = 26%/3years =8.88% yearly return. Adding back franking credits and the return becomes better again. The problem is that there are better opportunities out there. Net Tangile Assets seems to be steadily declining and current liabilities as well as long term liabilities keep getting bigger. Current Liabilities are almost twice current assets at 8 billion and will continue to grow over the next few years. Long term debt is 11.4 billion dollars which would take 4 years of current earnings to pay off providing that no dividends were paid. If telstra cleared all its debt it would take 6.5 yrs to payoff providing no dividends were paid and assuming flat earnings.
> 
> Anyway I am glad that those who own Telstra including my father are starting to see some increase in Sp expecially after it's poor performance. Just remember where the exit sign is when the final instalment payment on the T3 offer is due.




Hi Can it surprise withs its earnings forecasts? M & A also maybe?

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 26.5 16.5 -15.2% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 27.5 15.9 3.8% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 31.2 26.5 27.5 27.3 
DPS 34.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 * 

Nice sustainable payout ratio!

thx

MS


----------



## giss (15 February 2007)

this nxt G thing is going to be big & there baby only for the next few years australia wide. It might not be a complete replacement for the losses occuring in converging tech but its going to be a constant source of good news to plug the holes. I wouldn't be surprised if the share price keeps rising up to say $5.50 in the next 6 months.


----------



## TheRage (16 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Nice sustainable payout ratio!
> 
> thx
> 
> MS





Hi Michael,

I can't tell whether your being sarcastic or not. The payout ratio is certainly sustainable but at the expense of using full earnings and a little extra debt to cover it. I prefer companies that can afford to pay dividends not ones who pay them because the shareholders would bail without them.

cheers
ryan


----------



## Warren Buffet II (16 February 2007)

TheRage said:
			
		

> Hi Michael,
> 
> I can't tell whether your being sarcastic or not. The payout ratio is certainly sustainable but at the expense of using full earnings and a little extra debt to cover it. I prefer companies that can afford to pay dividends not ones who pay them because the shareholders would bail without them.
> 
> ...




It (pay divids and increase share price) isn't what shareholders for an income type of share want?

If they have the cash flow to pay divids from debt that is OK for me and for any other shareholder and that is what Telstra has been doing for many years, so it is not something new.

WBII


----------



## TheRage (16 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> It (pay divids and increase share price) isn't what shareholders for an income type of share want?
> 
> If they have the cash flow to pay divids from debt that is OK for me and for any other shareholder and that is what Telstra has been doing for many years, so it is not something new.
> 
> WBII




Warren I have been following telstra for a very long time due to my father's interest in the share and am familiar with their debt structure etc. 

Here is a little food for thought. On current long term debt of 11.4 billion  telstra is paying 1 billion dollars a year on interest alone. Lets assume for interest sake that Telstra has no hedging and no fixed interest and the markets interest rate ramps up to 10% then Telstra debt commitment becomes even higher. On recent and predicted cash flows telstra earnings are predicted to be between 3-5 billion over the next few years. over a 1/4 of earnings are being used to pay off the interest on debt. To further complicate this more debt is being added due to payment of dividend in excess of earnings further compounding interest payments. I can appreciate that everyone's long term view on this stock is bullish due to the supposed cost savings, improvements in technology, monopolistic nature of the company, but I am waiting until I can see debt being paid off before I get too excited or earnings doubling. Good luck on your investment.


----------



## UMike (16 February 2007)

FYI

Westpac Stock broking has given them an intrinsic valuation of $5.10.


----------



## TheRage (16 February 2007)

UMike said:
			
		

> FYI
> 
> Westpac Stock broking has given them an intrinsic valuation of $5.10.



Thank you but I don't need a stock broker to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock when I can calculate it based on future cash flows for myself. I certainly hope you are right though it would be nice for my father to regain some ground on his dwindled return on this stock.


----------



## UMike (16 February 2007)

TheRage said:
			
		

> Thank you but I don't need a stock broker to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock when I can calculate it based on future cash flows for myself. I certainly hope you are right though it would be nice for my father to regain some ground on his dwindled return on this stock.



Yes but some of us aren't as smart as you.   

I am always happy when others recognise an undervalued stock that I have previously recognised.


----------



## ROE (16 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Where is little ROE today? I guess he is trying to find some article about Telstra.
> 
> TLS is getting close to 5% up today.
> 
> WBII




Telstra fundamental hasnt change since last year, the price gone up because fund managers is pumping money into the stock for yield, nothing special about Telstra today than it was 10-12 months ago.

This dog still face lot of challenge ahead, regulation, google going to hurt their sensis earning in a few years.... if ACCC is successful with their case, there go alot of line rental revenues because people like me will get rid of phone rental and have it just for ADSL and use mobile and VoIP. Debt level is also high on this dog, if sudden movement in interest rate will cause problems for it.

There are alot more stock out there that perform much better than TLS and I put my money in those stocks.

PS: if you hold a stock long enough it will eventually go up but you have to compared against other stocks and TLS is certainly a real dog.
put the same money you put into TLS a few years ago into CBA/WOW/BHP/MBL etc...and you come out way way way ahead.


----------



## ROE (16 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> It (pay divids and increase share price) isn't what shareholders for an income type of share want?
> 
> If they have the cash flow to pay divids from debt that is OK for me and for any other shareholder and that is what Telstra has been doing for many years, so it is not something new.
> 
> WBII




NO I dont want a company to pay me dividend when it takes on extra debt to cover it and take on debt to fund its infrastructure..

you look at all Wonderful company and none of those do anything like it.
they pay 50-60% payout ratio, the rest they use for cap ex and increase equity in the company. TLS is like a guy that live from pay cheque to pay cheque. They spend everything they earn then take on more debt when they need the cash to buy a car or TV or whatever, after a series of bad moves they lost their job and they go bankrupt.

I got nothing against TLS, the figure speak for themselves I once owned this stock but not until it sell at Bargain price 3.50 and I pick it up and offload them when they hit above $4 because I dont think it's a good stock fundamentally..the onlything TLS has that sustain their earning is monopoly on copper line, not good business.

The stock is higher and I sold them out earlier but I never ever regret my decision on a profit. I work with my systems and it make me money and I dont intend to change it because of 1 or 2 stocks.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (16 February 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> NO I dont want a company to pay me dividend when it takes on extra debt to cover it and take on debt to fund its infrastructure..
> 
> you look at all Wonderful company and none of those do anything like it.
> they pay 50-60% payout ratio, the rest they use for cap ex and increase equity in the company. TLS is like a guy that live from pay cheque to pay cheque. They spend everything they earn then take on more debt when they need the cash to buy a car or TV or whatever, after a series of bad moves they lost their job and they go bankrupt.




Well, that could be right, but the fact is that Telstra T3 has returned sharesholders 55% and soon a 7% in divds. Happy days.

WBII


----------



## ROE (16 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well, that could be right, but the fact is that Telstra T3 has returned sharesholders 55% and soon a 7% in divds. Happy days.
> 
> WBII




hey good on those with T3 I did have T3 as well but sold them at $2.64
that enough profit for me for a dog of ASX.

I just speak fundamentals and pick out company weak points.

If you make a **** load on TLS good for ya, seem like your systems work for you
dont have to get too personal.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (16 February 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> hey good on those with T3 I did have T3 as well but sold them at $2.64
> that enough profit for me for a dog of ASX.
> 
> I just speak fundamentals and pick out company weak points.
> ...




Hey, ROE that is fine, I am happy you made a profit with T3. 

I have to ask you, if you believe TLS is that bad why did you invest in it in the first place? It is just an honest question to understand why people invest in companies that they believe don't have good prospects

WBII


----------



## TheRage (16 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hey, ROE that is fine, I am happy you made a profit with T3.
> 
> I have to ask you, if you believe TLS is that bad why did you invest in it in the first place? It is just an honest question to understand why people invest in companies that they believe don't have good prospects
> 
> WBII



Warren I am guilty of having done this in the past on other stocks I simply did not believe in. The only reason I can give you is that positive sentiment is overwhelmingly favourable to an Sp increase. If an offer is oversubscribed then Sp goes up. I have done this on several stocks at offer and offloaded not too far down the track because I knew it was the sentiment pushing up the price and not the fundamentals. To be honest I knew T3 would be oversubscribed by the mere fact that everyone I knew was talking about it. I should have jumped in and dumped but didn't because I couldn't separate my own emotions of disliking this stock from a true opportunity.


----------



## ROE (19 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hey, ROE that is fine, I am happy you made a profit with T3.
> 
> I have to ask you, if you believe TLS is that bad why did you invest in it in the first place? It is just an honest question to understand why people invest in companies that they believe don't have good prospects
> 
> WBII




I buy them because at $3.50 it's relative cheap with the prospect of turning it around but after 6 months or so with the shares pushing up and fundamentals hasnt change and profit margin get hammer each year so it's time for me to let go at a reasonable profit and pick up the next bargain stocks. 

Even though TLS did better than predicted because Analysts play into Sol's
hand, he wanted to knock the stock back sooooooooo bad when he join and make all the bad news and make worse possible prediction on earnings so when the news comes out it can only get better and he becomes a hero.

Pretty smart huh. I would do the same TLS is already a dead dog when he join so doesn't hurt to shoot the dead dog down and raise a new puppy and get the love of the family.

But read TLS fine print carefully, their Mobile margin got knock back a whooping 45% to 35%. Cost are higher, for every extra dollar revenue they generate their cost is higher than normal.

So all the signs is there just need to read it. I still maintain TLS is not a good company for now but it may be in 2-5 years, but only time could tell.

I continue to monitor TLS and when all the signs is right (lower cost, higher margin, growth above 8% etc..) I come back in or when it's selling like $3.50


----------



## Warren Buffet II (19 February 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> But read TLS fine print carefully, their Mobile margin got knock back a whooping 45% to 35%. Cost are higher, for every extra dollar revenue they generate their cost is higher than normal.




Well, that is the power of a monopoly, any monopoly can do that without any problem and they are spending like crazy to get ahead in the mobile market, specially in the 3G network. Optus which is trying to compite and keep second place will install its network in 3 years!!. TLS has 3 long years to gain as much customers as they can and do what a monopoly does the best, economies of scale. So I am most than happy to see TLS spending millions in mobile and broadband, I believe that is great.

Not all cost increases are bad and I recommend you have a read about monopolies become natural monopolies.

WBII


----------



## ROE (20 February 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well, that is the power of a monopoly, any monopoly can do that without any problem and they are spending like crazy to get ahead in the mobile market, specially in the 3G network. Optus which is trying to compite and keep second place will install its network in 3 years!!. TLS has 3 long years to gain as much customers as they can and do what a monopoly does the best, economies of scale. So I am most than happy to see TLS spending millions in mobile and broadband, I believe that is great.
> 
> Not all cost increases are bad and I recommend you have a read about monopolies become natural monopolies.
> 
> WBII




TLS monopoly is not a good one, they bound by regulations and that will some what restrict in what they can do, sometimes to a deadth ... see how much money TLS loose when regulation make them open up their copper line?.... Still some form of monopoly is better than none but I prefer Monopoly like Coca Cola, Google where services and quality dictate their monopoly and customers are prepared to pay for it even it cost them more.


----------



## Sean K (23 February 2007)

TLS holding above $4.50 - what I thought was long term resistance. Will be very positive if it can hold above, maybe test it, forming support. Next resistance on the long term chart is up at $5.00 ish. MACD confirming upward trend. Looking ok for the minute.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (2 March 2007)

*ACCC drops Telstra Case*

ACCC drops Telstra Case

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/accc-drops-telstra-case/2007/03/02/1172338844028.html

Looks like the ACCC is just trying to intimidate TLS and is coming out with nothing. They better have a strong case for TLS line rentals when TLS starts the court case.

WBII


----------



## ROE (5 March 2007)

Warren got some more money to buy TLS at $3.50? it's heading down that way  

I   got some ready


----------



## Warren Buffet II (5 March 2007)

ROE said:
			
		

> Warren got some more money to buy TLS at $3.50? it's heading down that way
> 
> I   got some ready




Be prepared because they whole market is going that way . 

WBII


----------



## ROE (9 March 2007)

Good you have a sense of humor Warren   I thought I'm going to get a blast from you since you are so attached to Telstra  .

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 March 2007)

Unusual volume on TLS yesterday. Any ideas?

Broke through $4.50 again and touched $4.60 an area not seen for some time. Aug 05 actually. For those following we picked the break of the down trend some time ago and it seems to have been recovering OK. Chart forming a big cup, heading back to $5.00 by the look. Lots of resistance between $4.50 and $4.75 though, so there might be some sideways action. Still medium term going up. 

(holding - too many. Bought all the way to the bottom after T2   - making up for it now  )


----------



## Gurgler (30 March 2007)

kennas said:


> Unusual volume on TLS yesterday. Any ideas?




I noticed dividends were paid in overnight - any connection, or is this coincidence?


----------



## Sean K (30 March 2007)

Gurgler said:


> I noticed dividends were paid in overnight - any connection, or is this coincidence?



I think it was options...hit 4.68 this am. Had a good run. I'm not sure what has really changed fundamentally for TLS. Is it safe haven buying? Belief in the 3 Amigo's story? TLS winning the mobile and broadband battle? Release from Gov control? Whatever it is, it's certainly been a turn around story.


----------



## Ken (30 March 2007)

I missed Telstra on open at 4.16 last after the crash...

Everytime you think Telstra has had its run it keeps kicking.


----------



## Glenhaven (30 March 2007)

Finally a fantastic couple of days for Telstra holders. Telstra 3 was such a great investment.


----------



## Happy (6 April 2007)

This week TLS touched price recorded in September 2001 so it is not that bad.


----------



## louie (7 April 2007)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation has a big win over ACCC*

This has to help Telstra a lot.

Telstra  has had a big win over the ACCC.   

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/telstra-has-big-win-over-accc/2007/04/05/1175366408029.html


----------



## Warren Buffet II (13 April 2007)

ROE said:


> Warren got some more money to buy TLS at $3.50? it's heading down that way
> 
> I   got some ready




Hi ROE,

I just could not resist to quote your entry from January saying that TLS was going to touch $3.50 well it has done it today but ...... it was TLSCA who did it 

WBII


----------



## ROE (14 April 2007)

hahahaha glad you make your money on TLS  
at current price it's around PE of 18 ..... no longer a bargain stock  
It may starts free fall soon  
keep your feet close to the exit


----------



## dhukka (14 April 2007)

Good analysis ROE, paying dividends that exceed profits by using borrowed funds to meet the shortfall was a blatant ploy to prop up the share price before the float of T3. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that paying dividends that exceed profits by increasing debt is unsustainable and detrimental to the health of a business. 

Without the ability to reinvest profits at high rates of return, the encumbrance of government regulation and as competition heats up in several areas of its business its hard to entertain holding such a poorly managed business at these prices. Actually I think ROE is being generous


----------



## ROE (16 April 2007)

are we buying T4  

http://www.tellthetruthtelstra.com.au/


----------



## Gurgler (14 May 2007)

Don't you just want to hug him?

He's out there confronting the government on our behalf:
*Sol says:
"I would like to see the environment for investment change - it means a policy change, it means that it's a change the government will have to lead.

"Otherwise my shareholders, the Telstra shareholders don't want to invest in money-losing projects."

He said Telstra shareholders "should not be put into a position where they are asked to subsidise foreign competitors".*

from an Age article just out: "Sol resumes broadband hostilities"

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...and-hostilities/2007/05/14/1178995053432.html


----------



## AndyMc (16 May 2007)

Hey Guys

Yarr I'm very new to trading and have been having a good look at Telstra charts.

Recently I'm becoming more and more keen on the idea of Telstra getting to and going below 4.60 by the last week of May. :homer:

Any thoughts?


----------



## ROE (22 May 2007)

Any truth to this story?
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21773473-462,00.html

it will be a sad day for TLS if they resource to this sort of tactics.

1 thing I hate is management disregard for their staffs well being, and the pain and suffering they may cause to their family.

Maybe TLS CEO should read common stock, uncommon profit by Philip Fisher.


----------



## ROE (22 May 2007)

AndyMc said:


> Hey Guys
> 
> Yarr I'm very new to trading and have been having a good look at Telstra charts.
> 
> ...




No idea. I'm not a chart reader . I don't understand it.. I stay the hell away from it ..   ...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 May 2007)

AndyMc said:


> Hey Guys
> 
> Yarr I'm very new to trading and have been having a good look at Telstra charts.
> 
> ...




Andy,
Both on a weekly chart I see an opportunity to buy but some weakness may creep in. If you feel it is going to sub 4.60 ish then be quiet because you may scare everybody out of it again.........


----------



## rocka1 (24 May 2007)

MY OPNION IS LOOK ELSE WERE better value in other stocks due to managemen.stock price due  for a breather in my opnion cheers rocka


----------



## AndyMc (24 May 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Andy,
> Both on a weekly chart I see an opportunity to buy but some weakness may creep in. If you feel it is going to sub 4.60 ish then be quiet because you may scare everybody out of it again.........




It's moving slower then I thought, so who knows. 
Just my speculation even i don't trade from them at the moment. :


----------



## Sean K (29 May 2007)

kennas said:


> Unusual volume on TLS yesterday. Any ideas?
> 
> Broke through $4.50 again and touched $4.60 an area not seen for some time. Aug 05 actually. For those following we picked the break of the down trend some time ago and it seems to have been recovering OK. Chart forming a big cup, heading back to $5.00 by the look. Lots of resistance between $4.50 and $4.75 though, so there might be some sideways action. Still medium term going up.
> 
> (holding - too many. Bought all the way to the bottom after T2   - making up for it now  )



On last review I thought 4.50-75 was going to be difficult, but on review, perhaps it's 4.75-5.00 which is going to be where most of the static will be. Plenty of churning there between Jul 03 to Jun 05. Probably plenty of mums and dads buying around there who will be happy to cash in soon to buy a caravan. 

The cup has formed now IMO, and if we get some consolidation sideways ish for a little bit you can count that as a handle, perhaps. Quite a cup and handle that one! Price target from break through 5.00 ish will be $6.50. Pretty early to call, but I like making rash TA predictions. I'll wait for the eggs to be thrown later.


----------



## Sean K (30 May 2007)

Been chatter around of TLS as a takeover target, along with just about everything else on the ASX. Can't really see it myself. Where's the potential turn around, or release of value in the stock. Sell Sensis and Yellow Pages? 

I think Sol was right, it wouldn't be a target while it's half way through an efficiency program - or whatever he's calling it. 



> 0847 [Dow Jones] Trade in Telstra (TLS.AU) likely to be active after AFR's Street Talk column says Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU) recently approached the Future Fund about taking a cornerstone TLS stake. Unsourced item says Macquarie working with consortium of unnamed institutions to bid for at least 3% of the company - Future Fund owns 17%. Report says it looks like MBL, which recently failed in its takeover bid for Qantas (QAN.AU), approached the Fund directly, but was referred to Fund's advisers at Deutsche Bank. Had been some talk at time of T3 sale that Macquarie wanted a chunk of shares then. Macquarie spokesman declines comment on today's report, same at Deutsche Bank, but report likely to reignite speculation that TLS could be a takeover target. TLS last at A$4.84. (LMF)


----------



## Sean K (1 June 2007)

Here's a close up of the handle forming on TLS. Pretty dodgy but it's shaping up on the 3 years chart. Break though 4.90 ish is taking on greater significance. That will just mean that the break will be more significant too. I think.  I hope.


----------



## Sean K (10 June 2007)

kennas said:


> On last review I thought 4.50-75 was going to be difficult, but on review, perhaps it's 4.75-5.00 which is going to be where most of the static will be. Plenty of churning there between Jul 03 to Jun 05. Probably plenty of mums and dads buying around there who will be happy to cash in soon to buy a caravan.
> 
> The cup has formed now IMO, and if we get some consolidation sideways ish for a little bit you can count that as a handle, perhaps. Quite a cup and handle that one! Price target from break through 5.00 ish will be $6.50. Pretty early to call, but I like making rash TA predictions. I'll wait for the eggs to be thrown later.



Still happening. Looks like it's going a bit bearish short term, and could find 4.50 to the down side even while the long term bull is running. I'm still guestimating a break though $5.00 could see a C&H significant breakout. I don't think I've seen a cup this size before. Just a _probability _of course. I think the future fund can sell off stakes in this shortly, which it should, to balance the portfolio, so should see some significant holders eventuate in the comming weeks/months. Takeover spec should probably blossom at that time also, although a very long shot. 

(holding - too many - since T2 and 'averaged down' to 3.50 and added on break through $4.00 up to now - and now breaking even, not counting dividends which have been noice )


----------



## reece55 (10 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Still happening. Looks like it's going a bit bearish short term, and could find 4.50 to the down side even while the long term bull is running. I'm still guestimating a break though $5.00 could see a C&H significant breakout. I don't think I've seen a cup this size before. Just a _probability _of course. I think the future fund can sell off stakes in this shortly, which it should, to balance the portfolio, so should see some significant holders eventuate in the comming weeks/months. Takeover spec should probably blossom at that time also, although a very long shot.
> 
> (holding - too many - since T2 and 'averaged down' to 3.50 and added on break through $4.00 up to now - and now breaking even, not counting dividends which have been noice )




Hey Kennas
Top post mate - the cup and handle on the monthly is very obvious here, almost text book in fact. Short term, looks like it's going to take a breather (MACD divergence), but perhaps it will find support at that 4.50~ level as you said, which incidentally looks like where the 200 MA on a weekly time sits at the moment. Then I guess we are just waiting for confirmation of another bullish move back up and see if it can crack the 5.00 level.

On my watch list now........

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (13 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> Hey Kennas
> Top post mate - the cup and handle on the monthly is very obvious here, almost text book in fact. Short term, looks like it's going to take a breather (MACD divergence), but perhaps it will find support at that 4.50~ level as you said, which incidentally looks like where the 200 MA on a weekly time sits at the moment. Then I guess we are just waiting for confirmation of another bullish move back up and see if it can crack the 5.00 level.
> 
> On my watch list now........
> ...



Shorter term the horizontal support looks like it _should _be between 4.50 and 4.60, which will also be at an upward trend line. Not sure about the 200 d ma. Mine is a daily, but a little bit off the level you describe, but it could move closer as the sp comes off over the comming days to reach the support (if it does).


----------



## julius (14 June 2007)

Think your on it Kennas.

Look for TLS to climb back to resistance at $5.

We might see a run if it breaks - but I'm out at 5 without new signals.


----------



## julius (15 June 2007)

Now up 12c since Wednesday.

Note support is more difficult to quality than resistance. Market has tested that level four times since April - I think we'll need major buying pressure to move through $5. 

Till then I'v got my eye on the exit.


----------



## Sean K (19 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Shorter term the horizontal support looks like it _should _be between 4.50 and 4.60, which will also be at an upward trend line. Not sure about the 200 d ma. Mine is a daily, but a little bit off the level you describe, but it could move closer as the sp comes off over the comming days to reach the support (if it does).



Unfortunately, this FTTN v Cable debarcle and win by the Singaporeans over Australia is going to cost Telstra short term I feel. There's a lot of uncertainty of what this all means at the moment, and I think the SP will suffer. Not sure if those support levels will hold actually. Helen Gooner is such a pain in the @rse.


----------



## Kauri (19 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Unfortunately, this FTTN v Cable debarcle and win by the Singaporeans over Australia is going to cost Telstra short term I feel. There's a lot of uncertainty of what this all means at the moment, and I think the SP will suffer. Not sure if those support levels will hold actually. Helen Gooner is such a pain in the @rse.




 Hi Kennas,
              Tls...one of my few loooong-term pattern trades... trading a potential cup on the weekly... unfortunately can still fall a long ways and remain valid    ..
      Cheers
               Kauri


----------



## wavepicker (19 June 2007)

Kauri said:


> Hi Kennas,
> Tls...one of my few loooong-term pattern trades... trading a potential cup on the weekly... unfortunately can still fall a long ways and remain valid    ..
> Cheers
> Kauri





Hello Kauri, hows things?

Great chart, I actually have been looking at the daily chart of this the last few weeks, the struggling move up in that timeframe appears to be and EW Ending Diagonal (ED).  Moves away from such patterns(in this case it would be down) can be quite abrupt. These are terminal patterns of a particular "degree" of trend. Whether it is the larger trend in this case remains to be seen, but this was easily spotted from weaks ago

Cheers


----------



## ROE (19 June 2007)

Why let an American Comedian Amigos treat Australian Workers and Australian company this way???? Share holders vote him out.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21929990-2,00.html


----------



## YELNATS (9 August 2007)

Disappointing results today from a disappointing company. 

When will the Mexi-Yankees start to perform or leave? They're on a high enough and increasing stipends aren't they?

Isn't it time they stopped blaming the regulatory landscape in this country and started to perform to the max within it's accepted boundaries and restrictions? 

"Hello guys, Hello, ..... wake up, this isn't the USA.

Surely your honeymoon period is over and you need to perform quick smart or quit."

I can't remember the last time this company pleasantly surprised the market.

I'm Peeved. YN


----------



## UMike (9 August 2007)

YELNATS said:


> Disappointing results today from a disappointing company.
> 
> When will the Mexi-Yankees start to perform or leave? They're on a high enough and increasing stipends aren't they?
> 
> ...



I'm more than peeved.
These Mexi - Yankees have no idea about how to deal in Australian environments.

I wouldn't recommend these guys to run my Mother in laws company.


----------



## Ken (17 August 2007)

TLS to go under 4.00 as it goes EX dividend on Monday.

If you're looking for yield stocks, TLS is as good as any.


----------



## ROE (21 August 2007)

Ken said:


> TLS to go under 4.00 as it goes EX dividend on Monday.
> 
> If you're looking for yield stocks, TLS is as good as any.




TLS ex-dividend yesterday or this Coming Friday?
Comsec said Friday and news.com.au reported yesterday ????? 

I think news got it wrong.

not touching TLS until it trades below $4  that how much I think it's worth.


----------



## ROE (21 August 2007)

YELNATS said:


> Disappointing results today from a disappointing company.
> 
> When will the Mexi-Yankees start to perform or leave? They're on a high enough and increasing stipends aren't they?
> 
> ...




I never seen a company waste so much time fighting the government instead of putting effort in running the company and run it well.

this to show these guys cant manage but love raging war and in war no one wins.


----------



## Awesomandy (21 August 2007)

ROE said:


> TLS ex-dividend yesterday or this Coming Friday?
> Comsec said Friday and news.com.au reported yesterday ?????
> 
> I think news got it wrong.




TLS ex-date is (was) 20 Aug. If you are desperate for the dividend, buy it on the New Zealand exchange, where the ex-date is 27 Aug.


----------



## Sprinter79 (24 August 2007)

Suffer in your jocks!!! My next G phone even cuts out in my office in West Perth. 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=59377



> ACCC forces Telstra Next G ad changes
> Friday Aug 24 13:08 AEST
> Telstra has changed a series of television advertisements promoting its Next G mobile telephone network after the consumer watchdog raised concerns that they could be misleading.
> 
> ...


----------



## ROE (25 August 2007)

Next G is a shocker compared to 3. I dump next G and went with 3.
there are going to be a lot of disappointed next G customers in the next few years, you can see that in 3 rise in subscription.

I got 3 phones and 3 Broadband plan, NICE!

$29.95 for 3 Broadband plan 1G limit is awesome...more quota than I need
to play with stock in a month anywhere that has 3 coverage.


----------



## vishalt (26 August 2007)

I don't understand this company..

it makes money. 

But its declined for years, its crazy, what the hell is it gonna make it go into an uptrend?

Anyway but I think it seems like a good daytrading stock as it lacks intraday volatility. Will buy if it breaks $4.45, or supports at $4.15 - with 18c stops.


----------



## ROE (26 August 2007)

vishalt said:


> I don't understand this company..
> 
> it makes money.
> 
> ...




Good company with good assets and good cash flow it just really badly manage and do stupid things which can be corrected , with an overhaul of the whole board and senior management..It has huge monopoly advantage on its side but don't know how to use it to their advantage instead of waging war with the government.


----------



## Sprinter79 (26 August 2007)

The bosses are complete tools and have absolutely no subtlety about them. They have no repore (sp) with the common Australian, who see them as arrogant Americans who have come over here to tell them how to do things.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (9 September 2007)

I get a giggle reading all these posts about Tls....you guys are all day traders and dividend strippers......you wonder when the line will trend upwards and you want to analyse the personalities of these crazy US imports.....has anyone of you actually had a look at Tls fundamentals, business model or even its earnings.....would it be too simple to suggest that the price will trend up when Tls increases its earnings and vice versa....well derr, you want to know how and when......heres a hint, all parts of the tls business except for one very lucrative part is growing earnings impressively.....would it be fair to say that once they stem the bleeding in this one area, the growth from the other areas will flow straight to the bottom line...when will this happen....you guys like graphs, have a look at the graph in their presentation...its as plain as an azure sky...for the  record Tls is a massive buy and Macquarie bank would bid twise its current price to financially engineer it, gear it up, break it up and sell it to ignorant retirees


----------



## reece55 (9 September 2007)

vishalt said:


> I don't understand this company..
> 
> it makes money.
> 
> ...




Vishalt
The answer is simple - whilst it's a cash flow machine, it is expensive valuation wise and won't grow profits for years to come. So, at present, from a valuation perspective, you are probably loosing money each year you invest in Telstra until it starts to find new ways to make $$ in a declining fixed line market, once you factor in the yeild et. 

I still don't understand why they don't split Telstra up - one entity would be the infrastructure paying investors a yield based return and the balance the wholesale business and Sensis, etc. Watch the EV appreciation if that were to occur.

Bloody Ziggy and his tech investments in the dot com boom!!!!

Cheers


----------



## Bluebeard (10 September 2007)

I dont like the way TLS is being managed either, not in terms of attacking government regulation, but clearly the shareholders could get bigger returns if Telstra itself does to itself what private equity would do to it if and when they decide to have a go at Telstra.


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (10 September 2007)

Its tough to say Telstra has a stretched valuation, especially in this market..maybe if you only looked at PE..in this market you have no asset businesses like fund managers and retailors selling at PE20.....Tls has hard assets and its infrastructure quality recurring cashflow...it also has some compelling consumer franchises like foxtel and Sensis which are only starting their growth really...throw in the possibility of fibre to node and you can see why the instalment receipt is still a valued commodity....I'm just amazed that everybody hates this management so much that they totally don't believe their 2010 targets.....Shareholders seemed to like Ziggy a lot more with his penchant to just waste shareholder funds and give in to the government....the Telstra business is actually performing exceptionally well if you believe the reported stats, especially compared to other fixed line dependent telcos....I must confess I believe in the assets and just the franking credits alone are putting my kid through college


----------



## gregcourageous (10 September 2007)

Time for a bounce??? What do you think? Still heading below $4????
This chart seems to point to a bounce


----------



## vishalt (10 September 2007)

Can I ask why you guys trade in Telstra?

Just curious as I think there are so many more/better/solid/liquid stocks out there than this permanent downtrend scum lol.


----------



## juw177 (10 October 2007)

Potential break out here. It has broken out of horizontal range by smashing $4.45 let's see if it holds.


----------



## Dutchy3 (10 October 2007)

Yep ... and I went long on the close ...

4.75 - 4.85 shouldn't be to much of an issue in the next 4 - 6 weeks ...


----------



## Sean K (14 October 2007)

Looks like a more significant break occuring to me. I recently sold long term holdings around $4.40.


----------



## Dutchy3 (14 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Looks like a more significant break occuring to me. I recently sold long term holdings around $4.40.




Hi kennas ... Yes has the potential. When TLS does manage to put together a few white candles in quick succession it has signaled a more significant move in the past ... recent highs at 4.95 might now be at risk


----------



## YELNATS (7 November 2007)

I just heard on the radio, at Telstra's meeting today apparently about two thirds of shareholders *voted against* the new TLS remuneration package for the Mr Trujillo and his executive team. Those against it included the Future Fund who owns over 16% of TLS.

Despite the vote, because it was "non-binding", the remuneration package is going ahead anyway. This includes Mr Trujillo's package being doubled even though the TLS share price is now lower than when he started.

Isn't this the height of arrogance and disregard for the wishes of the owners of the company?

Makes you wonder why they bothered to put it to the vote at all  ???


----------



## prawn_86 (7 November 2007)

I agree Yelnats.

Im all for executives getting fat pay packets providing they are making the cash for the shareholders.

Sol is running a company how he likes without anyone to keep him in line. If a shareholders vote cant stop him i dont know what can 

My partner was one of the people recently made redundant by TLS and the way they are going about the staff cutting seems to also be completely wrong imo. Not saying that staff dont need to be cut, but sometimes you wonder about certain methods...


----------



## bigdog (25 November 2007)

For those members that hold Telstra shares look forward to higher SP's after the Rudd victory.
-- out with the Liberals broadband solution!!

Any predictions on what the SP high tomorrow?

My guess is $5.00

Date-----  	Close  	Volume  	
23-Nov-07	4.63	18,221,736
22-Nov-07	4.63	30,167,943
21-Nov-07	4.54	36,548,812
20-Nov-07	4.60	19,159,077
19-Nov-07	4.65	30,120,418
16-Nov-07	4.66	25,092,195
15-Nov-07	4.71	24,642,451
14-Nov-07	4.72	27,718,147
13-Nov-07	4.69	31,087,080
12-Nov-07	4.65	44,379,962
09-Nov-07	4.68	34,222,206
08-Nov-07	4.73	45,185,762
07-Nov-07	4.82	40,492,129
06-Nov-07	4.83	29,038,808
05-Nov-07	4.77	29,601,364
02-Nov-07	4.79	46,246,721
01-Nov-07	4.71	65,367,689


----------



## Rainmaker2000 (25 November 2007)

To be honest, I think the Labor win was widely expected and the actually effect on Telstra, the company, is a big question mark....

As for tomorrows share price, I think it would be ridiculous for it to jump substantially cause of a Labour win, but markets can be ridiculous in the short term......you are also assuming the market will know whether Labour is plus or minus and rise or fall accordingly, when history of similar incidents suggest that markets often move the wrong way in the short term...

Back to the big question mark, I do think Labour is a bonus for Telstra but only because they get to start afresh on new ground with the Government and Labour has already seen how the 'new Tls' will not take **** from anyone and will even endanger the relection of the Government......as Labour's first priority will be to get elected again, I think they will me amicable with TLS............

Also, Labour obviously is planning to partially fund fibre to node...........I view any taxpayer funding of commercial infrastructure as 'corporate welfare' and a free kick for TLS who will on participate on commercial terms.....Govt. will essential just be handing taxpayer funds to TLS in the similar to other 'public/private' ventures............

As opposed to others on this site, I'm a big fan of Tls long term plan and prospects


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## Bill M (19 February 2008)

This thread hasn't been visited for a while so I thought I would revive it. TLS has shot up lately mostly due to the ADSL2 connections now being put in play plus the forecast of more earnings via their wireless broadband network.

How do you people feel about the long term prospects of TLS now? Elections out of the way and the price has bounced?

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

I hold T3, payment is due in May 2008 for the final instalment plus you get the free shares. Is TLS worth a buy and is it worth these prices? What is your opinions?


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## Birdster (19 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> This thread hasn't been visited for a while so I thought I would revive it. TLS has shot up lately mostly due to the ADSL2 connections now being put in play plus the forecast of more earnings via their wireless broadband network.
> 
> How do you people feel about the long term prospects of TLS now? Elections out of the way and the price has bounced?
> 
> ...




Bill, I agree that Telstra is losing a certain market share. They have major institutions on board though and an infrastructure that suits outback rural to the beaches.

Today I went shopping for a mobile internet dongle for my laptop. competetion's $29-2Gig d/load p/month vs Telstra $59 200Meg p/month. But people still buy Telstra??

As per topic though, they will/should adapt to meet and supply new technologies to keep on business as usual.

OZ post survived email. Blockbuster survived Foxtel. Both are still adapting to change as well as trying to promote new market strats just as Telstra is doing.

Agree?


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## Bill M (19 February 2008)

Birdster said:


> Agree?




To a certain extent yes but for me as a customer they need to pull something out of the bag, something even better to get me back. Another product is Virgins G3 get your home phone with us and get free internet product. They pay $60 a Month for virtually unlimited internet and free local and national calls, this is a good product.

My fear is that if TLS doesn't do something "mind blowing" or better than another company that they may keep losing market share. I am torn between selling T3 and making good profits now or watching it tank after dividend day. It's a hard decision because I hear plenty of people saying they will sell after divi day, what you reckon that will do to the share price? Although I'm a long term investor I am a bit worried about TLS innovativeness.


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## Bill M (20 February 2008)

More info here

"Chief executive Sol Trujillo has forecast earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to grow by between five and seven per cent in the first six months of fiscal 2008, up from earlier guidance of a three to five per cent lift."

Full Story Here


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## ROE (20 February 2008)

With the introduction of Naked DSL, you will see TLS going to lose rapid share of the line rental. Naked DSL started late last year and many providers are aggressively offer the services.

I'm one of the people in the process of going with Naked DSL and VoIP.
no more line rental.

Naked DSL is a service where you just have a copper line in your home just for ADSL connection but without
an analogue phone serviced so their is no rental on the line...well there maybe but at rate far far below the current line rental
maybe a couple bucks compared to $30 most people pay.


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## Rainmaker2000 (20 February 2008)

Good to see some discussion of TLS.

You guys are referring to TLS losing market share......I agree it would seem likely, but the statistics so far show that TLS is actually gaining market share in almost all of its markets......this is not a joke, look at the graphs in tomorrows profit presentation.....if consistent with prior results, TLS is actually growing share signficantly in broadband for example, even from their high base...and killing them in mobiles

Even fixed line phone, TLS will likely have growth in the residential market.....growth........all the financial estimates are based on how slow TLS can stem the loss..

Everybody seems to be focussing on how these beautiful products like naked broadband and voip will kill TLS.......they do have the potential but the stats so far do not support that at all.

I think the difference between the two stories is simple: smart people beat TLS........as for the masses, they are just happy having the old fixed line, paying riduculous prices to TLS and getting locked into bundling contracts

People should take a fresh look at the TLS profit release tomorrow......everybody, everywhere seems to hate this company, it's management and its prospects......if you take out 'fixed lines' which should be pretty stable, TLS is very much a growing business with great potential


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## ROE (20 February 2008)

I check the figure tomorrow but from what I see in the last 6 months it's not great ..

Mobile call margin is being sweeze.

Google maps pretty much killed Sensis maps so I want to see sensis earning,
as TLS predicting this is a massive growth area for them.. I want to see if Google has muscle in and slow it down and eventually take it out.

Naked DSL wont effect line rental for another year I reckon because it relatively new and adoption is not that great yet but I be interesting to see toward the end of 2008 on their line rental.

I think TLS has strong market position and a massive moat, pitty they dont use it too well to their advantage and let people work around their moat.


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## Rainmaker2000 (20 February 2008)

Agreed, they have not used market power well in the past....but say what you like about Sol....every major decision and investment has been based around product differentiation and having exclusive product.........my favourite is the telco cable that joins Aus- and US for internet.....there is a perfectly good cable already their owned by NZ telecom made viable with Tls traffic though.....Sol of course is building a new cable.....I think the press release was something like "TLS saves Australia from subsidising foreign companies."....NextG is the best example to date though

Sensis is doing okay, but not up to expectation....most of Sensis is yellow pages  with the paper version actually going backwards last report

The Mobile margin squeeze is on the back of massive market share and subscriber growth and probably will continue till can turn off CDMA

People forget that, yes, emerging technologies can cost less with great efficiency......but funny enough, the existing players have a way of colonising the emerging technology and making just as much, if not more, profitable.....No sign yet that TLS isn't doing that.........For example, it not like News Corp has sat in a corner to mourn the loss of the newspaper.......instead they are going out making great returns on recently acquired digital assets


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## sinic (20 February 2008)

Birdster said:


> Bill, I agree that Telstra is losing a certain market share. They have major institutions on board though and an infrastructure that suits outback rural to the beaches.
> 
> Today I went shopping for a mobile internet dongle for my laptop. competetion's $29-2Gig d/load p/month vs Telstra $59 200Meg p/month. But people still buy Telstra??
> 
> ...




This is hardly comparing the same thing.. Telstra 3g works while travelling all over Australia - the others are only in major cities.


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## engo (20 February 2008)

Bill M said:


> I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?




At the moment other companies are getting cheap access to TLS infrastructure, now we have a change from a anti-telstra government to a pro-telstra ALP government I think things will change for the better for TLS


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## Bill M (20 February 2008)

engo said:


> At the moment other companies are getting cheap access to TLS infrastructure, now we have a change from a anti-telstra government to a pro-telstra ALP government I think things will change for the better for TLS




You could be right but right now it is all nothing but proposals.

"In a statement, Optus said that Telstra's application had "little chance of approval", believing it is "a desperate last throw of the dice by Telstra to distract the ACCC as it is set to hand down its watershed ruling on ULLS prices." This ruling "will finally open up last mile access to genuine competition", said Optus."

Full Story Here


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## Birdster (20 February 2008)

sinic said:


> This is hardly comparing the same thing.. Telstra 3g works while travelling all over Australia - the others are only in major cities.




Where are you coming from? This is what I meant about losing a *certain* market share. Rural to the shores Telstra has it stake. And they are adapting to new strats. (now I am just repeating myself). Prices are cheaper for going non-Telstra if you live in metro areas. But users still go Telstra. Many are, and I quote you,again, sinic "are only in major cities" and that is where TLS needs to adapt. As IMO people are going to move from Telstra products to a cheaper, if not inferior, product. Price rules. IMO majority will pay less for result than demand quality at no limit. The "$2" shops in every mall sell it and profit.

It is no secret that Telstra is most expensive. But it still shows growth through adapting and advancing. Just as their competitors do. Soon 3g will be norm Aust. wide for all telcos. If you disagree, I would call that foolish thought. 

All prediction and opinion of course. BTW not holding TLS (or any other telco for the fact) only stating for discussion. 

My hero the naked dsl and voip; hopefully the fall of telemarketers at tea time. OMG, am I going to get bagged!


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## Rainmaker2000 (21 February 2008)

Not too shabby a result from TLS.....not exceptionally good either....sp likes the result but unsure why...

Pretty hard to argue that its a declining business with 65% retail broadband growth, 13% in mobiles.....I was hoping PSTN would go closer to steady but you can see on their graph 2.1% decline is an unbelievable outcome in global context and in context of TLS few years ago..Residential appears to be in growth...Fibe to home will fix all that....

Since their revenue growth is tracking way ahead of 2010 transformation, it is scary to see what TLS will be worth in management executes on the cost side, as costs have always been the ambition......Free cash flow could be just staggering by 2010 and I'm looking forward to a long, prosperous ride on the TLS train.


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## jersey10 (9 March 2008)

Any insights as to why this stock has fell quite sharply recently after a good up trend from $4 to $5ish


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## UMike (10 March 2008)

I'd like to know also. 

Aspect Huntley re-rated this as Accumulate last Thursday. (With an intrinsic value of $5.10)

I'm a long term holder on this stock and will continue to hold but find this recent downtrend way over the All Ords's performance over the last week intriguing.


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## UMike (10 March 2008)

I'd like to know also. 

Aspect Huntley re-rated this as Accumulate last Thursday. (With an intrinsic value of $5.10)

I'm a long term holder on this stock and will continue to hold but find this recent downtrend way over the All Ords's performance over the last week intriguing.


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## Rainmaker2000 (10 March 2008)

Honestly, why is everyting going down......its just a constant downward barrage........I think just driven by peoples margin loans and general belief that the stock market is now longer a conservative investment.....

I've got stocks trading at PE 6,7,8,9,10 and upwards who've had great profit seasons including TLS, as yet the market justd does not care, but it will soon


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## Fab (4 April 2008)

What is the deal with TLSCA (T3) if we decide to pay for them in May when the installment warrant expires? I understands that you get 1 free share for 25 held. So for 10000 TLSCA warrants held that means you get for free 400 TLS @ roughly 4.50 (today price) = $1800. Is that correct as this is a fair bit of money and sounds worthwhile paying for it when the installment warrant expire.


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## UMike (4 April 2008)

Fab said:


> What is the deal with TLSCA (T3) if we decide to pay for them in May when the installment warrant expires? I understands that you get 1 free share for 25 held. So for 10000 TLSCA warrants held that means you get for free 400 TLS @ roughly 4.50 (today price) = $1800. Is that correct as this is a fair bit of money and sounds worthwhile paying for it when the installment warrant expire.



Thats correct.

It was a great incentive for me to keep them all this time.

If you include the fully franked dividends on your holdings at $4,200 and the $9000 in the  shares acapital gains then it's been a winner for sure.


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## Bill M (4 April 2008)

Fab said:


> What is the deal with TLSCA (T3) if we decide to pay for them in May when the installment warrant expires? I understands that you get 1 free share for 25 held. So for 10000 TLSCA warrants held that means you get for free 400 TLS @ roughly 4.50 (today price) = $1800. Is that correct as this is a fair bit of money and sounds worthwhile paying for it when the installment warrant expire.




You only get the free shares if you bought the T3 shares from the retail float. If you bought them on market after the float you won't get them, just pointing that out for the people who may not know, cheers.


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## master82 (6 September 2008)

*TLS - Telstra Corporation Ltd*

Like like Telstra will have to split for the NBN, if it does how severe will this impact on the share price?

I have 10,000 TLS bought at $4.22 - a large proportion of my capital, should I reduce it?

Thanks


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## michael_selway (6 September 2008)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation Ltd*



master82 said:


> Like like Telstra will have to split for the NBN, if it does how severe will this impact on the share price?
> 
> I have 10,000 TLS bought at $4.22 - a large proportion of my capital, should I reduce it?
> 
> Thanks




Hm not bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 29.8 31.7 35.7 40.7 
DPS 28.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 *



> Date: 5/9/2008
> Author: Matt O'Sullivan
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: online
> Telstra has admitted that the proposed broadband network increases its risk ofstructural separation. In a prospectus for a debt issuance program, theAustralian telco said that its network and retail businesses could be splitbecause of the Federal Government's national broadband network. Tenders forthe project were announced in early September, with submissions due by 26November




thx

MS


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## Greg71 (6 September 2008)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation Ltd*



master82 said:


> Like like Telstra will have to split for the NBN, if it does how severe will this impact on the share price?
> 
> I have 10,000 TLS bought at $4.22 - a large proportion of my capital, should I reduce it?
> 
> Thanks




If your total trading bank is, say, $40k (I mean the total amount in your trading account if you liquidated all positions), work out what 2% of that is ($800), divide it by the number of shares you have (at the moment 10k), and you have your stop based on a 2% loss. In this case, 8 cents.  Subtract this amount from your entry of $4.22, and you have a 2% stop at $4.14.

As the bottom of the channel it's in is lower than that, it's not a realistic stop, so you'd need to reduce your position to allow for a wider stop at say, $4.08, which would keep you in if it goes to support and bounces. You could then re-enter with your full position.

Looking at the chart, there's some ominous lower peak activity recently, so  there may be some downward pressure. If there's a split coming up there may be some additional unsteadiness ahead.

$4.22 is a nice entry price, but if it were me, I'd be regretting not taking profits already. 

This is not financial advice, as I am not a qualified financial advisor, only my observations based on my current level of expertise. 

In other words, I take no responsibility for your actions.


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## master82 (6 September 2008)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation Ltd*



Greg71 said:


> $4.22 is a nice entry price, but if it were me, I'd be regretting not taking profits already.
> 
> This is not financial advice, as I am not a qualified financial advisor, only my observations based on my current level of expertise.
> 
> In other words, I take no responsibility for your actions.





I regret it too when I didn't sell at $4.42, I 'm too greedy, I will reduce my position just in case next week.

Thanks for the advice


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## fordxbt (30 September 2008)

Telstra DRP Suspended

Dividends are now accredited to your financial insitution

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/drp.cfm

:swear:


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## tommymac (16 December 2008)

*TLS - Telstra*

I have never done a lot of research into Telstra, mainly because it is so policital which is proven by the recent events with the National Broadband Network.

I know it has a good yield, but for what other reasons have people invested in Telstra?

Would you buy Telstra now?
What would make you want to buy Telstra in the future? (e.g. if the company was split)


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## ROE (16 December 2008)

Losing the FTN stuff is a dead nail to Telstra.

If in fact someone else rather than TLS winning the bid, TLS is screw
they by pass all TLS copper line in the future and that will deal a $4B to TLS earning.

TLS only make money because of the monopoly on copper line..once that made obsolete by FTN, TLS is going down the toilet.


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## Gundini (16 December 2008)

I only bought TLS because it was sold off too heavy over the last couple of days. Not really an exciting stock, but at these prices I couldn't resist!

Long term hold for me, but I am still hoping for some more cheaper, if it gets cheaper...

Also think the media thing is a beat up, and TLS will end up getting the deals anyway.


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## TheAbyss (17 December 2008)

Telstra have an unbreakable monopoly imo. Whether they get readmitted into the NBN tender process or not they will emerger visotrs (ask Aussat). Of course it would be better that they get back on board as they are only hurting themselves trying to out manouvre the government who will fight tooth and nail to save face.

If they do not get back on board the NBN race then so what! They still have the best broadband coverage via Next G wireless and their Cable network and have the market share in all the places that matter (where the revenues are) so who needs to provide costly infrastructure to rural areas that are non profitable without government handouts to support it? They have lost nothing imo.

If a competitor comes on line and makes some inroads into the CBD areas then Telstra will take them on via a price war. The Accc has supported all against Telstra over the years but they continue to win market share because they have the best product and service network.

Nothing will change and all those nervous nellies who sold will regret it imo.


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## tommymac (17 December 2008)

^ Do you think the Government will ever force Telstra to split into two companies?  Infrastructure v Telecom


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## ROE (17 December 2008)

tommymac said:


> ^ Do you think the Government will ever force Telstra to split into two companies?  Infrastructure v Telecom




it happens every where in the world cant see why TLS wont be force down the same path... it counter productive to have a monopoly controlling such critical infrastructure... There is no room for monopoly in a capitalist economy


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## ROE (17 December 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> Telstra have an unbreakable monopoly imo. Whether they get readmitted into the NBN tender process or not they will emerger visotrs (ask Aussat). Of course it would be better that they get back on board as they are only hurting themselves trying to out manouvre the government who will fight tooth and nail to save face.
> 
> If they do not get back on board the NBN race then so what! They still have the best broadband coverage via Next G wireless and their Cable network and have the market share in all the places that matter (where the revenues are) so who needs to provide costly infrastructure to rural areas that are non profitable without government handouts to support it? They have lost nothing imo.
> 
> ...




TLS is nothing without their copper lines...FTN will make copper infrastructure obsolete... TLS manage to get customers by holding on to copper line and make it difficult for people to move around

ADSL customers still need TLS copper line for now doesnt matter who you sign up with but with FTN they just ignore TLS all together.

it be some years away but I cant see TLS compete on price, they just dont have it in them, look at all the mobile plans, it just doesnt compare....broadband plan too their price is just out of this planet and forget next G broadband for now...$100 bucks buy you a few gigabytes, only tech savy business buy those plan for work, general public can forget it.

Like I say most of the customers they got are old school people and they dont want to mess with TLS... once Gen Y coming on they are more selective and more tech savy they jump around and find the best deal.

At the current price the market already factor in TLS for that a fair bit of risk

this Dinosaur is big and it moves slow....I cant see it grow it earning more 5-10% a year... Until National Broadband deal finalise I dont think the price will not move any where soon.


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## TheAbyss (18 December 2008)

Roe, i hold with my previous comments. Time will tell.

Only real question is how can the government split the infrastructure component out of Telstra and not get taken to the cleaners by Telstra shareholders? They will sort it out sooner or later no doubt but for now my money is on Telstra. 

There is a litany of failed Telstra competitors in Australia. Ask Optus Vision what happened when they took on Foxtel, ask Aussat when they took on Satellite delivery. Even the low end of the spectrum for Telstra (non business mobiles) is lifting for telstra now. Telstra is smashing the competition on Mobile data (revenues up 70% this year alone in the enterprise and government sector) in addition they are gaining more market share from the non tech savvy. They are mums and dads, they are gen y. People expect quality and that is what they are getting.

Just read the Telstra shareholder announcement and it pretty much says it all although a more than healthy dose of arrogance exudes from it than is expedient in my view.

No i do not work for Telstra but am in the communications industry. Bought some TLS at $3.37 on my belief that TLS not being part the NBN tender process will actually save Telstra money not cost them as some will have you believe.


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## rub92me (18 December 2008)

TheAbyss said:


> . They are mums and dads, they are gen y. People expect quality and that is what they are getting.



I nearly choked on my sandwich when I read this line. Quality? As recently as 6 years ago their copper lines they put to the new unit I was living in at the time in Sydney were so pathetic that I couldn't even get ADSL on it. They were (and probably still are) unable to combine their billing for broadband internet and mobile/phone bill. Just trying to get a Customer Service rep on the line is like undergoing Chinese water torture and it turns into something even worse once you finally manage to get one on the line. They can't provide itemised data charges for mobile phones. And the list goes on.
They probably have qualities that are appreciated by some, but quality?


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## oldblue (18 December 2008)

Worth bearing in mind that the NZ govt forced Telecom to split into three standalone businesses, without any compensation to shareholders.
Not saying that it will necessarily happen to TLS but the precedent is there, not only in NZ but elsewhere.


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## TheAbyss (20 December 2008)

rub92me said:


> I nearly choked on my sandwich when I read this line. Quality? As recently as 6 years ago their copper lines they put to the new unit I was living in at the time in Sydney were so pathetic that I couldn't even get ADSL on it. They were (and probably still are) unable to combine their billing for broadband internet and mobile/phone bill. Just trying to get a Customer Service rep on the line is like undergoing Chinese water torture and it turns into something even worse once you finally manage to get one on the line. They can't provide itemised data charges for mobile phones. And the list goes on.
> They probably have qualities that are appreciated by some, but quality?




This is not the complaints department it is an investment forum. No company is perfect and the more customers you have the higher number of bad news stories will abound. My question to you is are you still using any Telstra services? Lot of people complain but still acknowledge there is no real alternative sometimes.

Their Next G services are 2nd to none and they are quality. Watch them ramp up the speed over the next few years on mobile data. The MPLS network is the acknowledged world leader so yes it is quality. MPLS is the patform the data network is based on and delivers speeds required for future uses such as video etc. One day you will be able to ring Telstra and ask for internet and they wont ask how much you will just get it and it will be sufficient for everything you could possibly want. Does your electricity or water provider ask you how much? No they just connect you. Different for business of course as usage varies dramatically. Telstra are the only ones capable of doing this and this is the sore point for a lot of people so change is inevitable imo.

Off topic somewhat though sorry. TLS will be around long after we are all gone and to not have some in any balanced portfolio is unwise imo. The sell off was over done is my point and i bought some and more than happy with my investment for now.

Watch them announce a major customer signing shortly perhaps a large bank or similar just to shift the focus somewhat


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## Smurf1976 (20 December 2008)

ROE said:


> TLS is nothing without their copper lines...FTN will make copper infrastructure obsolete... TLS manage to get customers by holding on to copper line and make it difficult for people to move around



And yet they've been running down the copper network for years through lack of maintenance, outsourcing and a general "patch up" mentality.

A classic case of what's wrong with how Telstra works:

At work we needed 3 copper lines installed. A simple job since the cable is already there - they just have to connect it, supply a phone number etc.

So what does Telstra do? Send a technician half way across the state (and we're in the city) to connect one of the lines. The technician informed us that someone will be back later to connect the other two - possibly one visit for each line.

Now, for those not aware, it takes only a few minutes work to do the connection. One 30 minute visit would have done the lot easily. But no, they want to travel ridiculous distances and spend a fortune instead.

The average 5 year old could work out that this isn't a particularly productive or economical way of getting the work done.


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## lcl999 (20 December 2008)

From an investors point of view there are a number of problems with Telstra.

1) The confrontational style of the hard men at the top. One must query whether their approach is the best path to shareholder's wealth. By getting the govt. offside they are finding out that if the govt. can close a door in their face, they will. By getting so many end users off side, there is political support at grass roots level for the govt. attitude.
2) By holding an effective monopoly they will be fighting the regulator on a continuing basis. This is a distraction from managing the company better.
3) With the steady increase in wireless's ability to replace copper in that last mile connection, Telstra's monopoly of that connectivity is on the wane.

I think there is a good business case for Telstra to split itself. "Old Telstra", call it Last Mile Limited, sells local bandwidth to all comers without any bias. A good steady business, like a toll road, to suit conservative investors.
"New Telstra" then becomes a high tech. company selling phones, internet connectivity, television, - whatever promises to turn a fast buck. The mindsets and management styles of the two companies would be quite different. Hence
4) Telstra is a conglomerate. Conglomerates are way out of fashion as specialists do better. Until Telstra sells off its low profitability divisions it will be a second-rate dinosaur. Regrettably current management thinks the current mish-mash is an asset.


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## Rainmaker2000 (20 December 2008)

Not many TLS fans here.........thought I would play a little devils advocate.

1. I think TLS 'independent management' is a massive plus for the company as opposed to the former TLS managers who gave away shareholder funds to do what the gov wanted..........for those who actually know about TLS long term transformation, it's actually about enhancing the business and shareholder returns, not pleasing the gov.........good luck to the builder of Fibre to Node....it's great that it won't be TLS putting up the cash........fact is that they need TLS customers to make it work and the gov. will literally have to force them through structural separation.......that should be interesting

2. Someone can again explain the concept of monopoly to me.....yes, they own copper wire that came with an access regime in place.....not sure if anyone's notice but since 2005, TLS has only been putting money into 'non-regulated', 'non-monopoly' endeavours.....nextG, nextIP, ADSL2+......I think you get confused with the old TLS management who milked the monopoly, made wasteful acquistions and lifted the dividends ratio on falling earnings....for anyone who actually knows the business, TLS has done quite remarkably in slowing the migration away from the fixed lines...

3.  Someone can explain to me how consumer's moving to wireless is a threat to TLS 'monopoly' after TLS created it's own 'monopoly' with its NextG, NextIP networks that no other firm in this country will ever invest the cash to match

4.  While a spit in the company may interest those short term arbitrages after a quick buck........the current TLS model is quite a beautiful thing for shareholders and consumers alike............my understanding of a conglomerate is a firm with various businesses with only tenuous relationship................that's certainly not the beautiful, vertically integrated TLS model

The great thing about current management was an early determination to grow and make all these assets leverage off each other......I would not know what divisions TLS would want to sell off....under the current business model, all divisions are so vital.....you got infrastructure, customers and content

5.  Bottom line: there is no way fibre will be profitable especially if TLS upgrades its cable network.........that means the government literally has to pass a law forcing TLS own customers from the copper and onto the fibre.........I can't wait to see the regulatory solution..........no matter, cause TLS is not wasting shareholders funds on this debacle, they shall ensure funds are invested where they will get a return....


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## kirtdog (29 December 2008)

too much debt, one main asset that will one day be worthless, if you ask me telstra is a risky investment, technology will phase out landline phone completely and everything will be satellite, thats talking very long term... the only thing theyve got going on is the mobile phone side of things.. over priced risky long term company IMO.


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## sofman2000 (31 December 2008)

I agree with rain maker- also having worked in telco for 15 yr+- I am confident that the management do not care about being excluded - Infact it was probably planned- They know they cant lose - if they build it they will make money- If they dont build it they will make money- They are not going to give something away for nothing- they want to make $$$ full stop. The sell off was really just scared investors who fell for the media hype IMO. I will hold my parcel for now.


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## lcl999 (31 December 2008)

Kirtdog, in principal I agree with you. One minor point, it is unlikely to be satellite technology as the quarter second up/down time kills voice conversations. However, my son has no land line. He uses mobile phone (Vodaphone) and public wireless for his internet connection. And he is not alone. Nomads like him are already land-line free and better cheaper wireless is imminent. Very soon land-lines will go the way of film cameras.
Ta-Ta Telstra

LCL


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## outback (1 January 2009)

You don't think the boffins at Telstra are aware of this and are working on a solution. I.E. Not satellite, but rather Next G, Wireless, Cable or whatever they perceive to be the next "big thing"?


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## Bolivia (10 February 2009)

This is probably a silly question, but with all these natural disasters, is Telstra's network insured? They have come out today and said that it is going to cost hundreds of millions to repair and replace damaged infrastructure. Are they insured for this?


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## Harro7 (26 February 2009)

So Sol is gone. He needed to leave to have his earnings remain tax free. Telstra needed him to leave to find a way back into the new government project.

What do people think the best play for tls is now?


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## trading_rookie (26 February 2009)

What Telecom NZ did to get themselves back in favour with the NZ government was to appoint an external CEO...someone with no baggage re: separation of their business. And from all reports things there are looking rosy again.

They got someone from BT. Telstra's consultant has also spoken to someone within BT. Sticky point is investors might get a little peeved having to pay for an expensive import again especially with the the value of the AUD.

Personally I was happy with Sol's performance overall (Ziggy was a flop). The talk is Sol was quite surprised how much media speculation came with the job. And compared to that disaster in HK, it appears the partnership venture into China could be a good revenue raiser.

I find it funny that our own government would bend over so far for foreigners in the name of free trade that they wouldn't hesitate to ban Telstra from the NBN. You don't see the Singapore government ask Singtel to structurally separate if they wanted to tender and then win (in parternship with that Cannuck mob whose name escapes me) the Broadband rollout there....yet the cheek of it's puppet Optus to demand that of Telstra.


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## trading_rookie (28 February 2009)

Our PM was asked yesterday his thoughts on the departure of the TLS CEO...
Journo: Any reaction to Sol's departure?
Rudd: Um, adios
Journo: Will ppl be entitled to be angry  if he walks away with a multigazillion-dollar payout?
Rudd: That will be a matter for the many, many hard-working Australians who are currently TLS shareholders.

Pffffff!!!! what about the many, many hard-working Australians who have seen the share price dip not because of the economic crisis but because of the decision to ban TLS from participating in the NBN by your party?!?!?!?!


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## tommymac (28 February 2009)

trading_rookie said:


> Pffffff!!!! what about the many, many hard-working Australians who have seen the share price dip not because of the economic crisis but because of the decision to ban TLS from participating in the NBN by your party?!?!?!?!




Telstra was arrogant to think it could make a bid for the NBN which didn't even meet all the pre-requisites. (It was written on 11 pages, or thereabouts)

The Govt had to make a decision, allow Telstra and receive complaints from the other bidders and the press, or ban Telstra which could increase costs. If you try to bully the Govt, eventually you will lose.

And let's face it, TLS has never been a great performer on the ASX even before the NBN. Mum's and Dad's have been losing lots of money from this company for a while. In my view its only a yield play, nothing more.


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## trading_rookie (2 March 2009)

TLS's arrogance is due to wanting to be sure before they submitted a bid that they would't be forced into structurally separate their business.
The argument is look what happened at BT Group and Telecom NZ when they were forced to. It would be interesting how Singtel would have reacted if the Singapore government had asked them to separate their businesses before successfully winning the bid to build the NBN there in partnership with a Canadian mob...Axia I recall??

On two occasions the chariman, McGauchie has requested a meeting with Conroy (Senator for TeleComms) and twice rejected, incl. two letters they wrote to his office clarifying if they put in a bid will they be forced to separate their wholesale and retail business, which too were ignored. It appears the government is as arrogant as our biggest telco ;-)

Since they received no clarification they submitted what they discussed with their lawyers was sufficient then and a few days later some more info re: the governments request for impact to sme's. 

This is the sticky point, and why the bid was rejected, not due to the amount of pages submitted. The government argues they wanted all documentation submitted that day - TLS are arguing show me where in the bid it stipulated this? TLS are also stating it was a 'bid' not a 'tender'  ;-)

In hindsight, instead of playing hardball and being arrogant they should have submitted it all. We can call it a 'Mexican' standoff ;-)

If TLS were successful and then pulled out, because they'd be required to separate the wholesale and retail businesses, the government would have the right to sue them for not going ahead. And they'd have more of a leg to stand on, then when TLS unsuccessfully sued former telco senator Coonan and the ACCC.



> And let's face it, TLS has never been a great performer on the ASX even before the NBN. Mum's and Dad's have been losing lots of money from this company for a while. In my view its only a yield play, nothing more.




Excluding the dotcomm bubble where it hit $10 for a day, mum and dad investors in T1 and T3 have done okay with the share price...but then again, they're long term investors so the dividend payouts they've received since T1 have yielded quite nicely. Godd to see TLS will not cut it's interim dividend despite the price heading south after being excluded from the NBN.


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## ROE (3 March 2009)

I like TLS at this price but I know more about the people who build their transformation IT system and I tell you this mob going to bleed TLS dry, leave a half ass system ..
nothing will works ..Billing Chaos will be upon TLS in the next few years with them wasting more time disputing bill with customers than collecting it.

American Amigo will be gone along with half of the yanks that responsible for this transformation projects ..no one left to kick and TLS will be picking up the pieces... arm with that knowledge I stay away.

we call them the viking of IT world, they come they pillage and they go


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## TheAbyss (4 March 2009)

Bit of press coverage in the last day or so regarding the NBN process.

We have had Maha "why use a sentence when i can use 20" Krishnapillai telling us why Telstra should not be allowed back into the bidding process

Media speculation that the Govt will be up for billions in compensation if Telstra are excluded and other reports that the whole process is flawed without a telstra bid.

I suspect things are warming up for a government rethink on the NBN bidding and Sol may well become the scapegoat that the government can point at and say ok now we will let you have another crack.

Personally i believe that Telstra will win no matter what happens as they have all the cards to play and any competitor will surely die a slow death no matter how much the ACCC prop up the competition. Singtel are losing market share each quarter and haven't found a solution to halt the bleeding as yet which is why they are desperate to lobby Telstra out of the NBN process. Pity of it is if the Singtel consortium win they will lose as the rural data side of things will cost a fortune to deliver and australians just dont want to pay a high fee for internet.

The existing infrastructure is key for any NBN delivery so in the end there can be only one solution whether the govt or anyone else likes it or not from an infrastructure investment perspective.


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## jancha (6 March 2009)

Lot of nervous investors out there. Div day and TLS down 6%. Wonder what their share price will be come Monday?


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## nev.shaun (6 March 2009)

Fairly new at this, looking at charts Telstra's had a fairly slow or minimal recovery from ex div, but those were quite a while ago

I wonder how people will/are reacting to these though

Call for urgent ACCC intervention to ‘stop Telstra stealing customers’ say competitors

Canberra carriers being cut by Telstra: CCC


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## Uncle Festivus (6 March 2009)

I think TLS is sufficiently oversold today for me to have my first purchase since I sold my T2 all those years ago. In at 315. When cash is king, TLS is still a cash cow? P/E & div yield looking mighty attractive, as long as it's maintained. Anyhow, so far a good whip/flip trade? Will they be left out in the cold with the NBN, will it even go ahead in this climate?


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## malachii (6 March 2009)

I thought they were oversold as well so I picked up a chunk.  Think we'll see a bit of a rebound fairly quickly as despite all their problems - they are still have a pretty safe dependable cash flow.  Also think a lot of the drop in price was because of Sol announcing he was leaving.  I think the market will get over that pretty quickly especially when they announce his replacement.

malachii

PS Please note I own TLS so my opinion is VERY biased!!


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## bloomy88 (6 March 2009)

jancha said:


> Lot of nervous investors out there. Div day and TLS down 6%. Wonder what their share price will be come Monday?




Telstra's SP was down 13c today but it payed out a dividend of 14c. In theory though the SP of a company should drop by the dividend amount, since in theory SP is the present value of expected dividends in the future.

In short, SP went down 13c but paid dividend of 14c so in theory the SP went up by 1c. The drop in SP today shouldn't worry shareholders too much i would think


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## hem9 (6 March 2009)

G'Day Mates 

New to the site, posted in the introduction forum already and hoping to get some valuble wisdom from you experienced investor types. 

Got a small amount of money to make my first investment  and I have been doing a lot of research on Telstra (since I am using the service), and from what i gather from this forum its not a popular stock. 

From doing my homework I thought todays share price would be a great buying opporunity for the following reasons:

1. TLS is cashed up and in this market thats really important
2. I think if any company can survive this downturn it would be TLS
3. Like Woolworths it is a defensive stock and for reasons 1 & 2, but unlike Woolworths in my opinion it is quite cheap (made a new low cause of the ex dividend and the share price is cheaper than other stocks which may or may not survive  this recession/depression.
4. With regards to Growth, TLS is supposed to be the leading telecom in Aus and I read that the Gov would have to pay TLS to use its infrastructure in going forward with the NBN and TLS bought some companies in China and I read somewhere they are going to try to penetrate that market.
5. The dividends would be more secure in comparison with other companies and the yields are not bad. 
6. If we are coming out of the recession then I could understand that money would be moving to growth stocks because TLS do not have rapid share movement but from all indications and what i have heard from the news that the recession is only going to get worse and "we ain't seen nothing yet" as stated by some economists, so I would think that TLS would be a good stock because of reasons 1,2 & 3.

If anyone can give a newbie some insightful advice on why TLS is either a good stock or bad stock, it would be most appreciated. 

Sorry for the long read and thank you in advance


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## oldblue (7 March 2009)

Hi, hem.

Now this is not advice because posters are not permitted to give advice. So it's just my opinion or as they say here, IMO.
Personally I'm not a great fan of TLS. Main reasons are the heavy capital cost of ongoing development and the potential for govt intervention/regulation. I realise that any messing with TLS would risk alienating the affections of voting shareholders but if the crunch came I wouldn't want to take the risk that the interests of the relative few would be favoured over those of the majority non-shareholders. Not saying it would happen but the world of telecoms is littered with govt interventions.

In favour of TLS is that it is a steady earner with a great yield and selling at a reasonable P/E for today's conditions.

You will be aware of the need to diversify your investments, ie not to put all your eggs in the same basket/company. That's easier said than done of course and one has to start somewhere/funds are limited. The classic solution has always been to start with a managed fund which spreads the risk for you. I'm not a fan of that, preferring to take and stand by my own decisions.

Happy investing!


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## hem9 (7 March 2009)

oldblue said:


> Hi, hem.
> 
> Now this is not advice because posters are not permitted to give advice. So it's just my opinion or as they say here, IMO.
> Personally I'm not a great fan of TLS. Main reasons are the heavy capital cost of ongoing development and the potential for govt intervention/regulation. I realise that any messing with TLS would risk alienating the affections of voting shareholders but if the crunch came I wouldn't want to take the risk that the interests of the relative few would be favoured over those of the majority non-shareholders. Not saying it would happen but the world of telecoms is littered with govt interventions.
> ...




Thanks for  your expressing your views and at least I learned more about the stock, I guess in this kind of market if possible government intervention is the largest possible problem then I guess it is not so bad.


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## Rainmaker2000 (7 March 2009)

Hey Hem9........as a relative newbie, you may not go far wrong with TLS but in this market, there are some incredible stocks which are superior to TLS and the market has dealt with more harshly.........if you can believe TLS has been one of the better performers in the last year.......

I probably reiterate the comment below....you may just want an index managed fund or something.............if you want to become a great invester, then learn a lot and stay away from any of the so-called wisdom you read in newspapers and magazines

For example: TLS is not cashed up but actually has quite a bit of debt, but not too much................there is really no such thing as a defensive stock, your best defense is a stock that grows earnings quicker than another..........dividends matter little compared earnings and free cash flow......

The best stocks in whatever economic climates are the stocks that are growing earnings quickly and selling at a relatively low valuation.........TLS does not excel on either count but is not a dunce all the same.....


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## hem9 (7 March 2009)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> Hey Hem9........as a relative newbie, you may not go far wrong with TLS but in this market, there are some incredible stocks which are superior to TLS and the market has dealt with more harshly.........if you can believe TLS has been one of the better performers in the last year.......
> 
> I probably reiterate the comment below....you may just want an index managed fund or something.............if you want to become a great invester, then learn a lot and stay away from any of the so-called wisdom you read in newspapers and magazines
> 
> ...




Thank you for sharing your views, that is why I joined this forum because of you guys very insightful opinions. With regards to your comments, all I really have to learn with is magazines and newspapers. I guess when I mean defensive I mean that it has not fell as much as other stocks and the sector is not traditionally affected by the slow down. In my opinion, based on the climate growth stocks have lost at the very least 50 - 95% and since the immediate future looks worse I am kinda scared to place my money in growth stocks such as financials, real estate and maybe airlines. I guess if the "recession" was ending I would be braver. 

I also think that the valuation for a "defensive" stock such as TLS is not too bad since turning ex dividend the share price is in its lowest price for 12 years from what I heard.


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## oldblue (8 March 2009)

I'm not really a Technical Analysis type but if there's one lesson I've learnt, at great expense, over many years of investing it's not to buy a share because it's trading at a 52 week low, an xyears low, or an all-time low.
I've achieved much better results from exercising a bit of patience, not being tempted to " pick the bottom ", and waiting for some strength to be shown in an uptrend in the shareprice.
In fact, taking a hard look at stocks that make new 52 week highs, perhaps taking a small position and then buying into further strength has often proved to be a profitable strategy. After all, SP movements merely reflect the combined knowledge and sentiment of market participants, some of whom will know a lot more about a particular stock than I do. All this is subject to doing my own research and analysis but TA is a useful tool to overlay on my results.

Just IMO!


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## Rainmaker2000 (8 March 2009)

Hem9, I get the impression you are excited and interested in stocks.......which I think is awesome.......I doubt I would have any success in market if it was not a massive passion......

Australian Financial Review or BusinssSpectator website are great sources>>>>>books are the best however 

Try Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits by Philip Fisher........he was arguably the inventor of the 'growth stock'........but of course he did not call it that..he just wanted to describe the best stocks...that is a term others have used and abused..

There are no blue chips either.......every company and even stock is unique.....and that is why people can make heaps on money on the market by knowing the differences..........not just between sectors but stocks

Example of stock at moment:  my favourite salmon farmer has more than halved in price since correction.........it is on track for lifting earnings by 40% this year, after a good half year, after lifting earnings for the last 4 years and it has detailed plans to lift earnings every year out to 2015..........it may be a 'growth stock' but really, they grow salmon, kill it, sell it, people eat it


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## hem9 (8 March 2009)

Thanks guys for helping a guy down on his luck and for sharing, will act on all your insightful "opinions".


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## oldblue (8 March 2009)

Getting well off the subject of TLS here but Rainmaker's favourite salmon farmer sounds very much like Tassal - TGR - to me. I have it on my watchlist too. SP is well beaten down so I would like to see a bit of an uptick before buying. 
Also of interest is TGR's biggest shareholder, Websters - WBA - who hold 25.9% of TGR with a market value of $65.6m. Now WBA's own market capitalisation is only $38.7m which would appear to make them extremely attractive! The problem is that WBA is a small, thinly traded stock, also trading in a bit of a rut. It's also on my list for signs of an upturn in the SP but extra caution is warranted, IMO, due to its small size and limited marketability.


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## Rainmaker2000 (8 March 2009)

hehe, your onto me Old Blue....not very vague..my understanding there are only two Salmon farmers in Australia now......Huon is unlisted and Tassal fills out the comfortable duopoly

Unlike TLS, the regulators care very little about Tassals massive market power....practically owning the domestic supply of Aussie Salmon....and now having a stranglehold on import supply into this market......and cause they are now apparently Tasmanias 2nd largest private sector employer, the Tassie government seems to be bending over backwards to consolidate their market power even further.......


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## jancha (11 March 2009)

TLS is getting hammered. Big sellers & not so big buyers. I thought this would have been a relative safe share at 3.30! Any thoughts on why the down trend? News of a super fast broadband & the costs?


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## brianwh (11 March 2009)

Suggestions by posters on another forum that short sellers are at work. Is there somewhere you can access a list of big sellers and or big stock lenders?


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## vincent191 (11 March 2009)

According to the list provided on the ASX website, only 15% of TLS turnover is due to short selling. It is a bit higher than usual.  I am not saying that this is the cause for the tumble in the SP, I am only responding to the above posting.


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## Uncle Festivus (11 March 2009)

brianwh said:


> Suggestions by posters on another forum that short sellers are at work. Is there somewhere you can access a list of big sellers and or big stock lenders?



That's good - they have to buy them back some day, 62M gone through today!


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## joeyr46 (11 March 2009)

jancha said:


> TLS is getting hammered. Big sellers & not so big buyers. I thought this would have been a relative safe share at 3.30! Any thoughts on why the down trend? News of a super fast broadband & the costs?




been a downtrend for years just not as steep as some, usually has something to do with reality Technically it broke out of a big consolidation a few weeks ago and whilst it may bottom anywhere I'd like to see a bottom form probably take a good while but could rally sharply with all the short sellers


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## jancha (16 March 2009)

Hi Old Blue,
              You were saying that you would look for a sign of an up trend in order to buy into a particular company. Unfortunately I've been buying TLS on the way down & now find myself in a position where im stuck with them or sell at a loss. I've noticed of late that when TLS shares have gone up in sp  on moderate buys it gets to a certain rise only to be hit with larger volumes of sells to fall back down. This suggests to me that the sp will eventully fall further. Would you agree with this line of thinking or does short selling come into the equation? If so could you explain what & how short selling works?  As i'm day trader with not much experience i'm considering in selling at a loss on the basis of the large sells. As I'm fairly new at this your opinion would be appreciated.


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## oldblue (16 March 2009)

Hi jancha.

I'm no expert on short selling - which involves borrowing shares and selling (shares you don't own) in the hope/expectation that the price will fall and that you're able to buy back at a cheaper price. I don't have the temperament for that.
Also I don't really give more than a passing nod to Technical Analysis, except to check from the charts that anything I'm interested in isn't trading in a downtrend. It's taken me a long time to learn not to buy in those circumstances - trying to " catch a falling knife " - with a very poor chance of getting the timing right.
As far as Telstra is concerned, it doesn't appeal to me right now, for various reasons. Having said that, it's a strong company with a dominant position in its industry and paying a good div. If I held them I wouldn't be selling.


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## Bluebeard (16 March 2009)

Any chance that TLS could slide to such a point where the Federal Government may decide to buy back the company in a takeover or a major mediacomms company comes in with a takeover proposal? Its a very big bite ... but TLS has some brilliant assets like Bigpond etc.


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## oldblue (16 March 2009)

I don't see that, myself.
The govt has got too many other things to spend its money on and too many other priorities for its attention. Besides which I doubt that there would be many political brownie points in such a move, and a lot of potential downside.
Big international telcos are similarly pre-occupied with keeping their own heads above water.
It would be a real "black swan" if it happened, though!


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## drsmith (16 March 2009)

I also can't see the government buying it back.

Imagine the political ammunition that would give the opposition.


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## jancha (16 March 2009)

Thanks for that Oldblue. I almost sold at a big loss but decided against it. I guess i wont be day trading for awhile. When you say it doesn't appeal to you right now for various reasons...can you explain in more detail as to why or is that getting to complex as involves reading charts? Just trying to understand why you don't like it & at what point would you like it. I do know one thing tho that i struggle with the charts... for example with the candle stick charts what do the colours represent eg. a green line or a brown line? Does the green represent a buy & the brown a sell for example? Maybe there is a site that you know of that i could go to to look into it in more depth?


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## Trembling Hand (16 March 2009)

The reason traders don't like it is for the obvious. It's going DOWN. Making new lows. traders don't like to waste money or time so they buy stocks with momentum in the direction they can make money with. Not momentum that's going against them.

I would sudjest you do some research on what the hell you are trying to do because from the comments you are lost.

basic candle stuff here,
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp


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## Trembling Hand (16 March 2009)

brianwh said:


> Suggestions by posters on another forum that short sellers are at work. Is there somewhere you can access a list of big sellers and or big stock lenders?




Yeah good one that. As usual totally wrong though!!!!!

Shorts are at 5% of issued shares......... nothing for the 4th largest company considering most would be arb plays.

Just as a comparison BHP is a 11% its not the shorts that are doing damage.


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## nunthewiser (16 March 2009)

for whoever is under the misguided idea that shorts are killing TLS 


http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


shows transactions a day in arrears but a handy lil tool nuntheless


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## joeyr46 (16 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> for whoever is under the misguided idea that shorts are killing TLS
> 
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
> ...




Thanks for that didn't know where to get that. Correct me if I'm wrong but usually high percent of shorts usually occurs near bottom not top of trend
And if so TLS has a long way to go down (Potentially) because noone believes it will


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## nunthewiser (16 March 2009)

joeyr46 said:


> Thanks for that didn't know where to get that. Correct me if I'm wrong but usually high percent of shorts usually occurs near bottom not top of trend
> And if so TLS has a long way to go down (Potentially) because noone believes it will




Uh? dunno about that ........ TLS will do what it will , just no point fighting the direction ....... dunno about stats etc etc but ME personally will short ANYWHERE within a trend if i feel theres a buck in it for me .ie a dip OR a longer term fall ......dunno prolly one of the more suffistaicated posters here would know the stats of the matter but me personally it dont matter will short anywhere as long as i think its due a drop


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## CanOz (16 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Uh? dunno about that ........ TLS will do what it will , just no point fighting the direction ....... dunno about stats etc etc but ME personally will short ANYWHERE within a trend if i feel theres a buck in it for me .ie a dip OR a longer term fall ......dunno prolly one of the more suffistaicated posters here would know the stats of the matter but me personally it dont matter will short anywhere as long as i think its due a drop




I think he could be alluding to the contrarian value of the data. Sometimes its also used to indicate when a short squeeze could take place, as happened with Seek last year.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Uncle Festivus (16 March 2009)

Anyone looking at the div yield, and the maintenance of such 'going forward"? Above 10% now - taking off thongs to test water temp of the big pond?


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## M34N (16 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Anyone looking at the div yield, and the maintenance of such 'going forward"? Above 10% now - taking off thongs to test water temp of the big pond?




It's actually funny because as I was reading last Sunday's Herald Sun recommendations for stocks, one broker had a sell on TLS because they suggested basically that if the markets go up, TLS will go up only a little, but if they go down, it will go down hard, so why bother? Had me chuckle!

But technically speaking, this one looks scary and has hit lifetime lows from what my charts tell me, but $3.00 looks pretty technically important on the charts and wouldn't touch this until there is a sharp turnaround similar to what happened to MQG a couple weeks ago, I'm looking for an inverted hammer on the charts.  Good luck to those bottom pickers, again one bad night on Wall St is all it takes...


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## jet328 (16 March 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Anyone looking at the div yield, and the maintenance of such 'going forward"?



Exactly, their cash flow doesn't cover the dividend. From memory they had to borrow $1bn for the last dividend payment


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## vincent191 (17 March 2009)

What is going on with TLS? The SP seems to have gone into free fall. There does not seem to have too many short sellers to have such an impact, so you cannot blame it solely on short selling. The volumne is high too, looks like someone is dumping a large amount of scrip onto the market. 

Is their failure to put in a complying bid for the new broadband network really have such a big impact? This new network is still only an election promise and there is no guarantees that it will go ahead, with or without TLS.

Further, TLS is still off the opinion that the project cannot go ahead as planned without TLS. Me like millions of others who hold shares in TLS are puzzled. When is ASX going to issue TLS with a speeding ticket?


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## oldblue (17 March 2009)

I doubt that the ASX will issue a speeding ticket. It's not that the SP has taken a sudden dive but rather that its gradually lost altitude.
TLS has a few issues around it at present but is, arguably, one of the most openly discussed stocks on the ASX as befits its size and wide shareholder distribution.
Just not the sentimental favourite at the moment.


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## YELNATS (17 March 2009)

vincent191 said:


> What is going on with TLS? When is ASX going to issue TLS with a speeding ticket?




A ticket for speeding? More like when are they going to be issued with a ticket for reversing down a one-way street.


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## nunthewiser (17 March 2009)

For what its worth .......... i have entered a TLS long today at 2.99 as a trade ONLY 

yes ... fighting the trend! silly ! reckless!   only in for a bounce .TIGHT STOPLOSS ......

the bishop wishes ya well


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## CanOz (17 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> For what its worth .......... i have entered a TLS long today at 2.99 as a trade ONLY
> 
> yes ... fighting the trend! silly ! reckless!   only in for a bounce .TIGHT STOPLOSS ......
> 
> the bishop wishes ya well




Trying to catch that wedge nun? Good luck. Quite a few down days, you might catch a bounce after all. 

CanOz


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## jancha (17 March 2009)

Thanks for your help on the Candle Stick matter Trembling Hand. As i said in the previous post I don't know much about charts & trading but am trying to understand it as a whole. What I was trying to do was bottom pick TLS as i thought it was good value, low risk ect. I kept buying it on the way down to the point where now i have to sit on them till they come back. Not too smart i guess but It's called a learning process. By the way, spelling is also a learning process. "SUDGEST" is spelt "SUGGEST". Thanks once again for your help.


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## Sean K (18 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> For what its worth .......... i have entered a TLS long today at 2.99 as a trade ONLY
> 
> yes ... fighting the trend! silly ! reckless!   only in for a bounce .TIGHT STOPLOSS ......
> 
> the bishop wishes ya well



Capitulation low maybe, but yes, a stop might be handy. I may join you.....maybe.

Good luck to us ....


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## nunthewiser (19 March 2009)

For what its worth . stopped out of TLS .... the bishop reckons sheet happens and lives to trade another day 

good luck to holders .

was a low % loss on stoploss point set out b4 entry 

could be wroing and stopped out to early but thats the way the cookie crumbles


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## nomore4s (19 March 2009)

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?


----------



## nunthewiser (19 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.
> 
> This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?




Probably m8 .... certainly holding well after that news ........ oh well ya get that , i could always renter . murphys law applys to me on this one i think . IF i,d kept beyond stop point it would have continued falling  but because i stuck to plan and stopped out .its bound to fly


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## Sean K (19 March 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.
> 
> This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?



Candle is looking pretty good for today at the moment. If it finishes above $3.00 will be a trigger for me to grab the knife. Love bloody hands!


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## vincent191 (19 March 2009)

I sure hope you guys are right. I am holding on by my finger nails. 

I cannot understand ACCC's action. What is wrong with a Company trying to protect it's assets by excluding the competition from accessing it's copper network.

The government tends to forget TLS id no longer belongs to the government. It now belongs to it's shareholders, we bought it off the government. So the shareholders are quite entitled to block others from accessing it's network to protect TLS's interest.


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## Nero64 (19 March 2009)

Trying to make sense of Telstra's latest 1/2 year report.

16 B in Net debt
28 B in captial 
58% Gearing
1 Bill in Div payouts last year
40 B in assets
909 M in cash
A2 rating negative growth by Moodys

That's quite a bit of debt but it's financials aren't that bad. 

Stuff the National broadband deal, it owns the network. If it says somthing you do it. It can bend Optus/Singtel, AAPT, and NZ telecom like a plastic rod. 

I work in IT/Telecommunications and this company is the ocean and the rest are pissing in its pond. Excuse the French. 

I'm looking to buy Telstra. Not yet though. People are getting out in droves. Remember Wesfarmers and Westfield. These companies are off there lows and they have worse balance sheets. 

Be paitient and wait.


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## tommymac (19 March 2009)

vincent191 said:


> I cannot understand ACCC's action. What is wrong with a Company trying to protect it's assets by excluding the competition from accessing it's copper network.
> 
> The government tends to forget TLS id no longer belongs to the government. It now belongs to it's shareholders, we bought it off the government. So the shareholders are quite entitled to block others from accessing it's network to protect TLS's interest.




The Howard Govt made the mistake in the first place by selling the infrastructure. Everyone knew that TLS was a monopoly and ACCC cannot allow a monopoly if it is not in the best interests of competition and consumers.

Therefore TLS are actually not entitled to block others from accessing the network if it prevents competition.

I say split the company and then I may look at buying into TLS Infrastructure.


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## brianwh (22 March 2009)

Something that seems to be missing in the analyses on this thread is the "Conroy factor". Our 2 previous ministers seemed driven by idealogy and sometimes pettiness and generally didn't seem up to addressing the issues associated with telecommunications. But Conroy seems to be taking this to a new level. He is coming across as a vengeful apparatchik schooled in the factional tribal infighting that so defines Labour Party processes. My fear is that the NBN decision will be as much driven by a determination to show TLS who is boss as it will be to produce a modern world standard telecommunications system available all Australians. If this means destroying the value of holdings of 1.4 million shareholders (including the Govt), well tough!


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## Sean K (23 March 2009)

Price action encouraging last Friday, but didn't drag me in. Watching for support this morning to make a call on short term trade off it's potentially oversold condition. Could be a reversal signal on the longer term chart. If it does bounce, I can only guess at a potential 50c gain to that significant resistance at $3.50. No other signals that I can see. Stop under $3.00 I suppose.


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## Sean K (25 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Price action encouraging last Friday, but didn't drag me in. Watching for support this morning to make a call on short term trade off it's potentially oversold condition. Could be a reversal signal on the longer term chart. If it does bounce, I can only guess at a potential 50c gain to that significant resistance at $3.50. No other signals that I can see. Stop under $3.00 I suppose.



I failed to mention that gap at $3.30 ish and Dec low which will also be a problem I think. If it does head up, expect a pause there. I'm in for a short term trade, finger on the sell button at break down $2.90. Finger on the buymore button on break through $3.80.


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## shag (25 March 2009)

talking of telstra, i was talking to a mate who worked for them or such yesterday, hes a top elec enger(enginer).
he said it would be sad if telstra got broken like telecom nz, as its a great place to cruise, and get fat(doing nothing apparently).
i think hes eyeing up the future, when all he needs is a desk and job title as an excuse to leave the wife and kids for a while...


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## Sean K (26 March 2009)

Fingers clean so far.

But gloves still on.

I've got no idea what the volume really means but I hope that it's exhaustion of sellers and then a lack of sellers which is causing this short term support.

I still hold hope for the bounce to make $3.50 but I usually have no idea. Happy for an EW'er or a funnymentalist to provide some analysis... 

All I can do is have a stop and think that it's oversold..... eeeek


----------



## nomore4s (26 March 2009)

Kennas I've moved the stop on my trade up to $3.09 now, so well above b/e. I risk getting stopped out early but it was only a short term trade anyway.

I think a break above $3.20 may see prices run a bit, but atm I can't see $3.50 being breached without some sort of retracement. I already have an order to sell in at $3.45 but may move it if the price action is strong above $3.20.


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## nunthewiser (26 March 2009)

yeah well traded guys ........ in hindsight the bishop reckons his stops were too tight on his entry but hey thats how it goes ... was an entry with a low% loss on stopoints ....... 

well done anyways


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## nomore4s (26 March 2009)

Nun probably more to do with the timing of the trade than the stops imo - in a day or so early. With this sort of play you need to keep the stops tight. I just got lucky with my entry.


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## Muschu (3 April 2009)

TLS can be curious to try to follow.  Maybe someone out there has a resaon / theory why TLS drops from around $3.28 to $3.04 [as of now] in about 6 days - and in an up market.  People looking for better growth elsewhere?


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## Sean K (3 April 2009)

Muschu said:


> TLS can be curious to try to follow.  Maybe someone out there has a resaon / theory why TLS drops from around $3.28 to $3.04 [as of now] in about 6 days - and in an up market.  People looking for better growth elsewhere?



Punters moving out of the 'save havens' maybe, or that they are going to lose some contract worth a few quid. I bought the knife and it's about to start bleeding, so time to put a bandage on it, for me maybe.


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## oremo (3 April 2009)

As you said Kennas, is there some huge contract they may lose or something something else under the bonnet?

Beats me

John Stanhope delivered an address to the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong last week,

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090326/pdf/00939597.pdf

The address outlined clear goals. Understated income and produced a number of worst possible scenarios. TLS still looks good long and very much undervalued. Even if you underestimate the dividend it still looks good.

Does anyone out there REALLY know? 

Anyone out there who can offer unemotional feedback? 

Please note the word "unemotional".

Give me facts not fears or emotions or "gut feelings"

I upped the ante today at $3.03. Based my decision on available and provable FACTS!

Cheers


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## prawn_86 (3 April 2009)

oremo said:


> Give me facts not fears or emotions or "gut feelings"
> 
> I upped the ante today at $3.03. Based my decision on available and provable FACTS!




Thats the problem, the stockmarket is a leading indicator, so it will price in what it thinks will happen to the stock in the future. 

If you are buying now only based on facts and not forecasting in anyway then you are behind the curve imo


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## oremo (3 April 2009)

I hear what you're saying about the market dictating the value prawn_86.

I've looked at the stockmarket and it's indications. Felt like I was in a TAB looking at the horse prices up on the screen and reading the tipters comments on the newspapers pasted on the walls before laying a bet

I understand that point of view if one is a trader. Traders have a short-term mentality. That's not a criticism. It's the nature of the craft. Simple buy & flip. Great if you're good at it. 

My argument is.....what the stockmarket thinks is only belief...not entirely based on numbers and facts. It's fear, suspicion, scepticism, mass hysteria and, coming to a stockmarket near you real soon,....optimism.

I have forecasted TLS's great current value based on facts. Not the stockmarket. Only thing I refer to on the stockmarket is the current price. That's why I bought again. 

What is the REAL VALUE? That's the question

Cold, level-headed facts should win the day  - long term.

Am I missing something? Illuminate me.......please.

Cheers


----------



## prawn_86 (3 April 2009)

oremo said:


> Cold, level-headed facts should win the day  - long term.
> 
> Am I missing something? Illuminate me.......please.
> 
> Cheers




What you are missing is that the facts can change dramatically, even on a long term fundamental outlook. What the market is essentially doing is pricing in a sum of all the probabilities of things happening.

Yes there is fear and greed, but that fear and greed is what determines peoples probabilities of outcomes.

So in theory, your analysis should have at least considered a couple different scenarios and you should keep evaluating with every news item to see if the company fundamentals change.

Just my opinion. Hope that helps a bit


----------



## drsmith (3 April 2009)

It will be interesting to see how the SP responds to the upcoming NBN tender announcement and whether there's too much negativity currently factored in.


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## oremo (4 April 2009)

drsmith said:


> It will be interesting to see how the SP responds to the upcoming NBN tender announcement and whether there's too much negativity currently factored in.




Read the report I previuosly posted. Long term, will it matter? TLS is a healthy standalone business. It's plugged into every building in Australia. 

It's globally focussed as well. Looking to China. I don't know about you but if I want to plant vegies, I'll look for some fertile land to plant in. I'm looking for good yields for my crops.


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## Trembling Hand (7 April 2009)

KRUDD is building the network.

No one won it!!

Telstra back in the build if they want. to be up to 49% private owned


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## jancha (7 April 2009)

Hi,
   Anyones thoughts on the Goverment building their own NBN? How will this effect TLS sp down the track?


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## Trembling Hand (7 April 2009)

jancha said:


> Hi,
> Anyones thoughts on the Goverment building their own NBN? How will this effect TLS sp down the track?




I would say the bigger effect will be this ann from the gov,

"comprehensive review of Telecoms Regulations"


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## bloomy88 (7 April 2009)

Wow, what a turn of events.

Krudd must be joking if he thinks that the government will make the NBN cheaper than a private company though, all those lazy government beaurocrats must be rubbing their hands together at the moment.

A good result for Telstra though i beleive, means their competitors cant dominate the market and the government will probably sell it to Telstra in the end anyway...


----------



## Jackob (14 April 2009)

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25331701-15306,00.html

Telstra open to break-up

Michael Sainsbury and Jennifer Hewett  
April 14, 2009 

*TELSTRA will consider a voluntary separation of its wholesale and retail arms as well as the sale of some assets to the federal Government's proposed $43 billion broadband network in a spectacular about-face that effectively dumps the aggressive four-year strategy championed by chairman Donald McGauchie and chief executive Sol Trujillo.*

The radically different and more conciliatory approach is part of an attempt to ward off the threat of much greater government intervention in Telstra's business. The company's board has set up a special committee of directors and executives to come up with a new approach and to negotiate with the Government. 

The committee, headed by Mr McGauchie, will focus on how best to respond to the Government's twin announcements that it will build a $43 billion high-speed fibre-to-the-home broadband network and will pursue a comprehensive review of regulation that includes the prospect of forcing Telstra to sell a range of valuable assets. 

Although company sources say it is too early to tell which options Telstra will pursue, the move signals the company's acceptance that its long-running war with two consecutive governments has backfired, and it must find a way to adapt to the new reality. 

News of Telstra's plan comes as Malcolm Turnbull argues in The Australian today that the new broadband network will be able to operate only with a massive government subsidy - probably for most of the $43 billion. "Unless we (completely unrealistically) assume that the vast majority of potential customers take up the Rudd net services and that they will pay very high monthly fees in the order of $150 to $200 per month, there is no way that Rudd net can deliver a commercial return on $43 billion of investment," the Opposition Leader writes in an opinion piece. 

He likens the proposed spending to the failed business case for Sydney's cross-city tunnel, which cost nearly $1 billion to build but went broke, with shareholders losing their investment. 

Telstra's new committee does not include Mr Trujillo, who is due to leave the company on June 30 but is spending even more time than usual travelling overseas. As well as Mr McGauchie, its members are directors John Stocker and Peter Wilcox, with chief financial officer John Stanhope, business head David Thodey and new head of marketing Kate McKenzie. 

The options under consideration would include Telstra selling some of its existing fibre assets into the new network in exchange for a minority stake in the new majority government-owned broadband company. 

Canberra wants this to reduce the likely cost to taxpayers of the proposed network, as well as the complexity of building it over eight years. 

The Government is arguing that the current regulatory system of limited operational separation of Telstra's wholesale, or network, operations has failed to encourage viable competition to the dominant player, and quick action needs to be taken. 

That makes the potential splitting of Telstra's wholesale and retail businesses likely to be the most immediately sensitive issue to be considered. 

A government discussion paper on regulatory reform, released last week to coincide with the national broadband network announcement, asks for submissions on a range of options to reduce Telstra's dominance and ensure the success of the network. These include "functional separation", under which network operations would be ring-fenced as a separate entity but still owned by Telstra. 

The network arm would have its own management and accounts, and would treat everyone who uses the network, including Telstra, equally in terms of information access and pricing. 

Under pressure from the regulator, Britain's former monopoly carrier BT Group agreed to a separation of functions in September 2005. Telecom New Zealand went down the same path early last year. 

Last week's discussion paper, which also canvassed the option of forcing Telstra to sell part of its fibre cable network, suggested the British and New Zealand experience had been positive for customers and not necessarily bad for shareholders. 

Mr McGauchie had railed against the prospect of even a mild form of further separation. Telstra insisted it would continue to fight any such proposal because the impact on the telco would be disastrous. 

But the Government's decision to fund the national broadband network, and the implicit threat it would consider dismembering Telstra, have led to a big shift in attitude at the top. 

The new mood is that the best way to protect shareholder interests is to co-operate in negotiations with the Government to restrict potentially damaging government actions. 

The special Telstra committee was formed a few days before the Government's announcement last week, reflecting the understanding that a drastic change in its approach to government relations was required. 

"It is clear that the discussions and negotiations with the Government on the national broadband network will occur over an extended period of time and will continue well beyond my tenure as the company's CEO," Mr Trujillo wrote to all staff on the day of the announcement. 

"Accordingly, we have put in place arrangements that will provide continuity in our NBN engagement with the Government. We have established a joint board-management committee, which is capable of conducting these negotiations and discussions over the extended period during which they will occur, over coming months and perhaps years." 

Mr Trujillo said that knowing more about the Government's long-term broadband plans would enable Telstra to deal better with any strategic options that must be considered. But it is clear Mr Trujillo will have virtually no role in developing the new strategy and rolling back the formerly aggressively unco-operative Telstra approach. 

Mr McGauchie and Mr Stanhope held a long-planned meeting with the Prime Minister's office last Wednesday, and Mr McGauchie has cancelled a business trip to China this week to concentrate on Telstra's NBN response and the selection of Mr Trujillo's replacement. 

As well as looking at a short list of external candidates, the board is considering a list of internal candidates, including Mr Stanhope, Mr Thodey and Sensis chief Bruce Akhurst.


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## ands (15 April 2009)

Would a breakup be a good or bad thing for Telstra shareholders? The share price hasn't be knocked around too much since talk of a break up started.


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## drsmith (15 April 2009)

That's because it was knocked around beforehand.

Telstra need to kiss and make up with the government. Then, hopefully they will be in a better position to discuss future arrangements.


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## trading_rookie (15 April 2009)

> KRUDD is building the network.
> 
> No one won it!!



Exactly, the only good thing for TLS is that they're back in contention to be part of a partnership ie NBNCo. As mentioned, TLS owns valuable assets like the exchanges that will route the optic fibre across Oz. The government can play hardball with TLS and introduce regulation to take ownership, but considering the number of voters in the country who are also TLS long term holders I doubt that's what they'd do. If anything, they'll be offering TLS a strategic position within NBNCo. that will see the assets either sold to NBNCo. or do what SingTel did with their assets and lease them to the government.



> Telstra back in the build if they want. to be up to 49% private owned



Typical Rudd hypocrisy during the launch...having a dig at the previous government for selling TLS, then making mention that NBNCo. will be a fully public company within 5 years...doush-bag.



> A good result for Telstra though i beleive, means their competitors cant dominate the market and the government will probably sell it to Telstra in the end anyway...




The gov is replacing one monopoly with another, ie TLS for NBNCo. I wonder how they're going to deal with the conflict of interest of being both the regulator and wholesale owner?? TLS will only dominate if their sold or leased assets to NBNCo. give them a greater say in the new partnership of TLS, Optus, Maquarie, AAPT (Telecom NZ), Vodafone/Hutchinson, etc, etc. 



> Would a breakup be a good or bad thing for Telstra shareholders? The share price hasn't be knocked around too much since talk of a break up started.



Talk of a breakup has been mentioned ever since the launch of T3 - re-read the prospectus. It'll be a good thing if we end up getting shares not only in the incumbent (TLS) but in NBNCo. as well. How cool would it be if for every 1 TLS share you have, you're entitled to 1 NBNCo. share ;-)

According to BT and Telecom NZ, a break-up of their businesses by their respective governments has seen a disastrous affect on their share price...can't see TLS letting go of Foxtel and the HFC Broadband business without some kicking and screaming...unless the government offers them a sweetener...sweetener's however more often that not have a use by date, usually the election of a new government.

An analyst commented that if the NBN can't be made to work at $10 billion what makes Rudd think it will work at $43 billion? According to the analyst the return will take forever unless the pricing model is very expensive. That of course can't be true, since it was meant to be affordable to everyone. 

The original idea was to lay fibre to the pillars - those grey stumps that one sees on street corners, and then it was to utilise the copper wire running from the pillar to every house, business, etc connected to that pillar. That's been scrapped since they'd  have to compensate TLS (figure is roughly $3 billion) and the technology to do this would be out of date in the not too distant future and have to be replaced. This non-upgradable idea would have cost them $13billion. 

The problem with fibre to the home (FTTN) is they're going to have to dig up streets and footpaths, and for those with telegraph poles, there will lbe bureaucratic red tape as most councils think there is enough wire hanging off them already. The government has yet to decide who will pay for NBN to flats and units - as the cable will probably go to the basement and then use existing copper wire via a new technology called VADSL (cousin of ADSL) to every tenant. For those buying in green belts you'll be slugged an extra $5K for the installation of ducts in anticipation of NBN....all this in 8 years and two federal elections.


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## Jackob (17 April 2009)

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25345919-15306,00.html

*Telstra chairman's future uncertain*

Mitchell Bingemann | April 17, 2009 

*THERE'S no doubting that, come June 30, Telstra will have a new chief executive, but the fate of the telco's chairman Donald McGauchie is not as certain.*

The tide of disapproval has been steadily building behind Mr McGauchie since Telstra was dumped from the Government's original national broadband network tender process in December, sending the company's shares into a downward spiral. 

While a lot of the blame for its exclusion was dumped on outgoing chief executive Sol Trujillo, the blame game has started to shift to Mr McGauchie, who has become the face of the company since the Government reinvented the national broadband network and invited Telstra back to the negotiation table. 

With regulatory reform looming and the possibility of functional separation on the cards, Mr McGauchie has his work set out for him if he wants to see through his term as chairman to 2011, analysts say. 

Despite the challenges ahead, White Funds Management investment manager Angus Gluskie believes that Mr McGauchie's recent conciliatory approach towards the Government could bolster his chances. "The market on the whole can be too fast at times to turf people out, which can be a very destabilising change and the fact that McGauchie has taken a new tack is evidence that this is someone who wants to change and someone who might be able to develop new productive relationships with the Government," Mr Gluskie said. 

But analysts say it could be a case of too little too late for the chairman. 

"The Government's stance shows they are sick of Telstra's aggression," one analyst said. "The past has happened and now it's about doing whatever is best for the company." 

This week it was revealed that Telstra's biggest shareholder, the Future Fund, had also been distressed by the telco's aggressive stance towards the Government and the regulator, and the telco's subsequent poor market performance. 

However, analysts say that the Future Fund's chairman David Murray will have little say in what becomes of Mr McGauchie. 

"When David Murray took charge of the Future Fund, McGauchie negotiated that Telstra's market performance would not dictate the chairman's position, so on those counts he should be safe," one analyst said. 

"McGauchie's time is up but I don't think the Future Fund will have any say in that." 

Industry speculation is running rife on possible replacements for Mr McGauchie, but three names keep rearing up above the rest. While some back former Telstra Countrywide boss and Acacia head Doug Campbell as a possible candidate, others are behind former Wesfarmers chief executive Michael Chaney. 

However, in order to take the role Mr Chaney would be required to give up his seats on the boards of NAB and Woodside Petroleum. 

Another hotly tipped candidate is current Telstra board member Peter Willcox, but he too has his share of hurdles to pass. Mr Willcox is a former board member of James Hardie; a current ASIC case against James Hardie's non-executive directors could wipe out his chances.


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## oremo (5 May 2009)

What's happening now with the SP? Is it fear, uncertainty?

Anyone in the (REAL) know?

Appreciate some feedback

Cheers


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## Real1ty (5 May 2009)

oremo said:


> What's happening now with the SP? Is it fear, uncertainty?
> 
> Anyone in the (REAL) know?
> 
> ...




Imo there is a lot of people getting out of defensive stocks and into riskier growth stocks.

If we start a leg down, i think TLS will move up again but that is not fact of course, just my opinion.


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## ROE (2 June 2009)

Did I post sometimes ago about their transformation project?
they come, they pillage and they go  ..the truth now surface.

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25571447-15306,00.html


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## sqwark7600 (2 June 2009)

ROE said:


> Did I post sometimes ago about their transformation project?
> they come, they pillage and they go  ..the truth now surface.
> 
> http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25571447-15306,00.html




From that article: “Our national account executive was genuinely shocked because all the info at the top end is that (the) Siebel (billing system) is working well. He was also amazed (must be an excitable chap) at the operators who put you on hold and then disappear (hullo-this is Telstras signature tune). He even said that if he had to deal with that on a daily basis, he would be looking for another career," the dealer said.”

And therein lies the problem. Customers are moving to another supplier for high-end products. They’ll keep the copper line but won’t give T more opportunities to hang up for any other product. I recently moved house and it took me 15 calls and two weeks just to transfer the copper line and retain my old number to the new address in the same suburb. Call centre CSO’s ranged from the Gold Coast to Perth. I wrote the usual letter of complaint but like most decided it was a waste of time explaining problems to an organisation who seems bent on self-destruction by incompetence.

Of all people ex-IBM employee CEO David Thodey should be able to sort out a simple billing system. The market will continue to reward the company's inability to run a customer oriented telephone company by continuing their efforts to equate TLS share price to the last dividend.


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## iASX (21 June 2009)

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for TLS, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX


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## sqwark7600 (21 June 2009)

iASX said:


> My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for TLS, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...
> 
> 
> Best,
> iASX




My research group iDUM is just about to ask your research group iASX do you expect a rush of subscribers, lured by your golden beacon of share trading wisdom, to now rush out and buy ignoring our beloved but "floored" DCF valuation.....miASS! Say hullo to the groupies.


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## YELNATS (24 July 2009)

Telstra's new $2.20 fee per transaction to be introduced on September 14 when you pay each of your bills at a post office, or at a Telstra shop or by mail, seems a bit over the top.

As I understand it, the only way to pay them fee-free is via the internet using B-Pay direct from your bank account. If you pay over the phone using a credit card you are slugged a percentage fee based on the payment amount.

I can see an outcry over this, especially from pensioners/older people who don't have access to a PC or the internet - ie. the poorest among us who can least afford to pay the impost.

Hardly behaving as a good citizen, Telstra, thought you were going to reform yourselves after the departure of the 3 amigos? !!?


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## awg (24 July 2009)

YELNATS said:


> Telstra's new $2.20 fee per transaction to be introduced on September 14 when you pay each of your bills at a post office, or at a Telstra shop or by mail, seems a bit over the top.
> 
> As I understand it, the only way to pay them fee-free is via the internet using B-Pay direct from your bank account. If you pay over the phone using a credit card you are slugged a percentage fee based on the payment amount.
> 
> ...






Pensioners are exempt.

I dont think other beneficiaries are though, not 100% sure.

As per others posts, there billing system still seems buggy

have had some "integrated" billing problems with our business account.

One thing that may be saving their ass is that Optus are even more hopeless.

I get calls on an almost daily basis on our various phones, from service providers, really frustrating, when you are trying to trade, and deal with genuine business calls.

and because the third party providers rely on these two, changing providers on an integrated account is problematical


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## trainspotter (24 July 2009)

Was with Telstra for 15 years with mobile phone. Got Optus sales jerk one day who had me at at weak moment. Swapped carriers. Optus was far worse billing and coverage. Swapped back to Telstra. Optus sent me a bill for $5.00 for late payment on account. Receipt on payment evidenced otherwise. They stuck to their guns and demanded their $5.00. I advised I would pay them $5.00 and 10 cents. This would cause their computer to go into overload and send me a credit for 10 cents for the next 2 years. Man at Optus said FINE. Sure enough. In an envelope was three bits of paper from Optus EVERY MONTH for 2 years evidencing my 10 cent credit. The finally sent me a cheque for the amount once they woke up I was no longer with them. Morons.


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## NedFlanders (24 July 2009)

trainspotter said:


> Was with Telstra for 15 years with mobile phone. Got Optus sales jerk one day who had me at at weak moment. Swapped carriers. Optus was far worse billing and coverage. Swapped back to Telstra. Optus sent me a bill for $5.00 for late payment on account. Receipt on payment evidenced otherwise. They stuck to their guns and demanded their $5.00. I advised I would pay them $5.00 and 10 cents. This would cause their computer to go into overload and send me a credit for 10 cents for the next 2 years. Man at Optus said FINE. Sure enough. In an envelope was three bits of paper from Optus EVERY MONTH for 2 years evidencing my 10 cent credit. The finally sent me a cheque for the amount once they woke up I was no longer with them. Morons.




hahahaha!!! Worked for Optus for almost 10 years - billing systems are an absolute mess. Now they are charging to send invoices. will be changing carrier at the end of contract.


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## Miner (24 July 2009)

trainspotter said:


> Was with Telstra for 15 years with mobile phone. Got Optus sales jerk one day who had me at at weak moment. Swapped carriers. Optus was far worse billing and coverage. Swapped back to Telstra. Optus sent me a bill for $5.00 for late payment on account. Receipt on payment evidenced otherwise. They stuck to their guns and demanded their $5.00. I advised I would pay them $5.00 and 10 cents. This would cause their computer to go into overload and send me a credit for 10 cents for the next 2 years. Man at Optus said FINE. Sure enough. In an envelope was three bits of paper from Optus EVERY MONTH for 2 years evidencing my 10 cent credit. The finally sent me a cheque for the amount once they woke up I was no longer with them. Morons.



I got a debt collector's notice for recovering $1.24 from Optus when in 1994 I changed my residence from Melbourne to WA (no Optus was in bush) and the bill (thanks to Australia post) failed to be redirected to my new address at minesite at the first place. 

Telstra is not the best but still they listen to complaints and recently gave me credit for big pond (three months rental ) when my wife complained to Ombudsman for Telstra's own fault. The manager spoke with me long time, profuedly apologised and then on her own gave me the credit to say SORRY.

Optus did nothing in 1994 when they sent me the debt collector's notice and attempted to charge  $63 for collecting back $1.24

For mobile you go to any bush or minesite it is only NEXT G works. When you really need a mobile to help you unfortunately it is only Telstra which comes to use. I switched from Telstra Mobile to 3 but now in a process going back to Telstra after contract finishes. 

Do not hold Telstra share however


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## trainspotter (25 July 2009)

It seems Telstra has us by the tail when it comes to coverage ! It might take 37 minutes for them to get a human at the end of the phone when you call them BUT at least they listen. All to no avail I am afraid. Had an incident whereby I was OS and the mobile bill was not paid. I thought I had setup internet bank transfer whilst I was away. Got a text while OS saying bill not paid etc. Ever tried to call Telstra OS and it takes 37 minutes to get a human to talk to? Bill was escalating rapidly. Came back to debt collector and contacted Telstra with reason for non payment. THEY DID NOT GIVE A TOSS. Apparently it is your responsibility to ensure you pay their bill. Even when the mail goes missing. Or you are dead apparently.


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## YELNATS (28 July 2009)

As per the Telstra website:

Quote 
Exemptions may apply, including eligible pensioner concession card holders.

Fee-free options are available to help you avoid these fees.
To avoid these fees, use an electronic payment option, such as one of our Direct Debit options or BPAY ®, to pay your bill from a cheque or savings account. 
Unquote

There are plenty of people, old and young, who don't have internet access and who are not pensioners - they will be disadvantaged.

You could opt for Direct Debit, but who would trust them, as I agree many of their bills are inaccurate.


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## jasonator (3 August 2009)

Was just wondering if anyone knows what date i would use for aquiring the Bonus Telstra Shares for CGT purposes??

My online trading account shows it as being the 19/11/2006 (the date the instalment receipts were issued), but I thought that the date would have been the date the bonus shares were issued?

Can anyone clarify this/direct me to where i can find this info.

Cheers!


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## Buckeroo (14 August 2009)

We'll no ones saying it so I will - well done Sol.

10% profit rise in the worst economic scenario the world has seen since 1929.

After franking, dividend yield at around 11%. If you bought in at $3 what a cash cow you have found.

Cheers


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## Rainmaker2000 (15 August 2009)

Agree, no one stands up for Sol when at least he and his US cronies knew about telecommunications technology and adding to the consumer bargain...and shareholder value...most aussie punters don't believe or don't care about above.....but for many who matter, like IINET chief executive and Optus management, they have reiterated how well Sol did in this regard

People like Ziggy Switowski and the new dude only seem to know only about how to work Telstra for its No.1 stakeholder.....the government....

I do however think it was appropriate to put the current CEO in charge cause after the NBN debacle....Sol had definitely served his purpose...It was clear TLS was never going to be an autonomous corporate identity...TLS infrastructure would be compulsorily resumed anyway.......so why not have a government type smoozing up to get the best deal

In the years to come, the irony is that TLS businesses will all be the businesses that were not even on the agenda before Sol and his cronies arrived......say what people like about them.......but there are not many legacies left by the wasteful and incompetent former TLS managements......just poor overseas acquisitions and fat dividends funded by debt

and $7 billion free cash flow next year will be an incredible phenomenon across corporate Australia in general.......what a novelty to fund dividends out of free cash flow!!!

Good onya Sol, sometimes it takes a wanker to get a good job done.....


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## johannlo (15 August 2009)

That may be true but if the books are so great why the SP slide then. 

It must be really hard as an incumbent with dominant infrastructure to use your market size to crush the competition.... not. Yes I realise ACCC constraints, and he didn't great getting around them didn't he. Crash or crash through? I thought we learnt that lesson already

Adopting super aggressive US style corporate standover tactics in Australian old boys club govt-business relationship style = epic fail. 

IT transformation completely ----ed up the creek.

Guaranteed PSTN cash cow slowly drying up and hopelessly incompetent at seizing the day w/ VOIP or pushing VOIP solutions backed up by our superior backend infrastructure (better 'pipes' if you will). I'm an onsite engineer (professional services) and the stuff our customers want to do is stuff that the idiots in HQ haven't even dreamed of yet. 

Outsourcing every man and his dog to India and resulting in horrendous f--- ups both customer facing and internal facing. 

THe one tick mark he has got is ramming through the NextG infrastructure, and yes its a BIG tick in my book. But on the balance he was pretty poor esp considering his wage packet. 

Having finished that rant, on the other hand it would have been nice to pick up some at 3 as a defensive.... what a super divvy.

And I am telling you they know ---- all about technology. From a strategic POV it is blindingly obvious why build an 'NBN' yourself if your competitors aren't, FTTH or FTTN its just a simple question of what speeds you want to deliver and how much cash you want to spend etc. Basic capacity planning 101 and its an engineer's job not an accountants' (the accountant gives you the budget, the engineer tells you what you can do with that budget).  

Maybe I'm biased as I'm from the engineering side of things (yes telco engineering.... routers and switches and VOIP)


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## Rainmaker2000 (15 August 2009)

I do agree with much of that.....agree that share price has not looked like it benefited yet...but then its performed okay in the meltdown...but the buss is now on a growth trend whereas it was not......it's consumer facing with focus on broadband and wireless

It may sound crazy, but I think Sol's ridiculously over the top combatative style served the purpose and got the result for TLS shareholders.......I always thought, in a way TLS never wanted to build NBN but knew it was always the 'elephant' in the room....

Was it ever going to be seriously possible for TLS to build and operate NBN......I think the answer was always no..........what was the result achieved......the taxpayer will be building an over the top $43 billion build.....Sounds like a great result for TLS to me.......for the whole industry actually

Agree, transformation not seemless.....apparently IT is a real basket case

But the growth Sol got on Mobiles and especially broadband left me completely shocked

On broadband, TLS was adding customers at a quicker rate to rivals, actually gaining absolute market share...........this was a bit shocking since their product and deals are so inferior to the competition

I don't ever remember being a TLS customer, why would you be...........I now have VOIP from IInet......phone and internet for $50 flat a month....absolutely gorgeous........which is part of why I'm an IINET shareholder........but the average consumer could not give a stuff about VOIP or saving money or better service....I've never understood it....TLS is certainly not the worst buss in the top 10......but obviously IINET is a far better investment case I think.......


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## johannlo (15 August 2009)

IInet has a significant risk attached due to the copyright lawsuit its fighting. Bad luck that they got targeted, it could easily have been internode or any of the other major tier-2 ISPs. Agreed they seem to run an excellent shop - but any tier 2 carrier has razor thin margins and not owning your own bearers causes a lot of pain that the tier 1 guys don't have to deal with. 


Back to the topic (shares) agreed TLS is looking sound as a defensive, but in this market why would you do it unless you are completely over exposed (I am already well covered w/ 25% of portfolio by WBC and QBE). The momentum in the telco market is definitely with Optus, observe recent iphone driven performance, another case of TLS missing the boat.


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## Wysiwyg (17 August 2009)

This David Toady ()  is a polished spin doctor hey. Rubbing his greedy mitts together in readiness for a massive salary. 



> While the comparatively meager pay packet may disconcert the new chief, Thodey will have the opportunity to increase his annual package to as much as $9.2m with bonuses if he hits short and long-term targets.


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## freebird54 (21 August 2009)

Rivkin report just came out with a buy due to latest news f/fund sell off 
I did - lots for div and big yield
ex dividend  next week
recently Share analysis gave a 4.14 target and eureka 4.03

Would like to do covered calls but premiums are poor


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## YELNATS (21 August 2009)

freebird54 said:


> Rivkin report just came out with a buy due to latest news f/fund sell off
> I did - lots for div and big yield
> ex dividend  next week
> recently Share analysis gave a 4.14 target and eureka 4.03
> ...




Yes, I've done the same thing today with purchases on 2 of my accounts. Bought in at $3.50, with an 8% pa dividend + franking credits. Hope it doesn't collapse on Monday when it goes ex-dividend.


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## Aussiejeff (21 August 2009)

Wow!!

Check out the $2.3Billion trade first up this morning.

More of the gummint's Future Fund dumping, perhaps?


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## JWR (21 August 2009)

If I buy Telstra on Monday, will I still get the dividend? I think it will go down on Monday due to the Dow Futures being down so I'd rather buy it Monday if possible rather than today - if I can still collect the dividend?


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## YELNATS (21 August 2009)

No. 

As indicated above, on Monday it goes ex-dividend, on Monday it goes ex-dividend. (100 chars)


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## Real1ty (21 August 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Wow!!
> 
> Check out the $2.3Billion trade first up this morning.
> 
> More of the gummint's Future Fund dumping, perhaps?




That's what it was.

Sold to UBS who have offloaded it to fundies for 3.47 ps.

future fund can't sell any more for 3 months at least.


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## vincent191 (21 August 2009)

Possible TLS <$3 next week. I rather wait at the side line for the next 2 weeks for the dust to settle. I sold today at and forgo the dividend and avoid the fall next week.

Next week fall it surely will by how much is the $64 question.


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## drsmith (21 August 2009)

vincent191 said:


> Possible TLS <$3 next week.



If that's based soly on what happened with the interim dividend you will most likely be dissapointed.


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## ozbecool (22 August 2009)

drsmith said:


> If that's based soly on what happened with the interim dividend you will most likely be dissapointed.




Pitty I reached this forum today and not on Fri - it would have been more appropriate if my comment was on 21Aug09:

21Aug09 RIVKIN said BUY Telstra - but most of the indicators say : SELL Telstra - additionally TLS goes ex DIV on 24Aug so the down pressure will be even higher.

I would wait long time - until indicators change - with buying this stock (and there are many better stocks than this one anyway)

______________
The above comment should not be considered as a financial advice - it is only author's personal opinion.


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## The Owls (22 August 2009)

JWR said:


> If I buy Telstra on Monday, will I still get the dividend? I think it will go down on Monday due to the Dow Futures being down so I'd rather buy it Monday if possible rather than today - if I can still collect the dividend?




Please advise that if Telstra shares are purchased on Monday 24th August the dividend will not be paid to the new owner.


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## Buckeroo (22 August 2009)

ozbecool said:


> ______________
> The above comment should not be considered as a financial advice - it is only author's personal opinion.




Well, that's one thing I do agree with you on

Its the best thing that could have happened to have the future fund sell out. Its been a noose on Telstra's share price. I'm always wary of government controlled investments - they can turn the screws anytime to get their own way.

So the quicker they can sell out the better. But have no fear people, looks like it will be another 6 months before the next sell.

Cheers


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## Glen48 (22 August 2009)

Good thing we suckers are there to buy these shares for our supper funds with out our permission.
And the brokers pick up a nice earner on the side.


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## jennifer.c.thomp (22 August 2009)

If I sell Telstra on Monday (ex-dividend day) do I get the dividend or do I have to wait until the day after? [I'm new to all this.]


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## ozbecool (24 August 2009)

*TLS - Telstra Corporation - dividend*



jennifer.c.thomp said:


> If I sell Telstra on Monday (ex-dividend day) do I get the dividend or do I have to wait until the day after? [I'm new to all this.]




You can sell shares of any company on EX-div day (in this case for Telstra it is Mon, 24Aug09) and you will still be entitled to the dividend.

To make it easier to remember try to use the following paraphrase: "EXpired of the DIVidend".


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## ozbecool (24 August 2009)

Buckeroo said:


> Well, that's one thing I do agree with you on
> ....
> Cheers




Your choice of course - people trading shares have two options when they encounter a drastically DIFFERENT point of view then their own:
- stick to their ideas no matter what (sometimes it is until is too late to change them or the change would cost a lot of lost capital / earnings)
- listen to others and consider modifying their own position

My intention was to warn people that a big SELL OFF is not on its own merit alone a good trigger to buy into 'cheaper' stock. One shall consider at least the possible reasons of such a big SALE. The impact of that being the price going down is normal in such circumstances - but does it mean that it is ALWAYS a BUY recommendation. By all means : no.

And in general : buying purely on NEWS carries high level of risk that the news we received might have been interpreted incorrectly (by us)

Cheers


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## JAS81 (24 August 2009)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation - dividend*



ozbecool said:


> You can sell shares of any company on EX-div day (in this case for Telstra it is Mon, 24Aug09) and you will still be entitled to the dividend.
> 
> To make it easier to remember try to use the following paraphrase: "EXpired of the DIVidend".




According to telstra, the record date for the dividend the 28th of august. Shares go ex-div on the 24th... correct me if i am wrong, but i have always read this to mean that if your holding on the 28th is nil - so will be your dividend... so you need to hold your shares from the 24th to the 28th - and it is those held shares that will attract a dividend...


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## skyQuake (24 August 2009)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation - dividend*



JAS81 said:


> According to telstra, the record date for the dividend the 28th of august. Shares go ex-div on the 24th... correct me if i am wrong, but i have always read this to mean that if your holding on the 28th is nil - so will be your dividend... so you need to hold your shares from the 24th to the 28th - and it is those held shares that will attract a dividend...




T+3 settlement: Shares go onto the register 3 days after trade. Thats why you need to hold as of close of trade 24th Aug.


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## JAS81 (25 August 2009)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation - dividend*



skyQuake said:


> T+3 settlement: Shares go onto the register 3 days after trade. Thats why you need to hold as of close of trade 24th Aug.




I see... so the key date is record date, less three days. Assuming that not all stock records dates are T+3 from ex-div date.. or are they all?


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## ozbecool (25 August 2009)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation - dividend*



JAS81 said:


> I see... so the key date is record date, less three days. Assuming that not all stock records dates are T+3 from ex-div date.. or are they all?




Note that it is almost a rule that on EX Div day share price of the stock being considered goes down - and there are often many comments in the press saying  "price of XYZ fell N cents today as it today goes Ex Div" - does this provide you with a new light at this issue ?

In my personal opinion it shouldn't be like this - i.e. "as per record date" and then 3T+ rule applied; this is because it creates confusion for many people. It should be stated 100% clearly that : "you must hold shares at the close of the day preceding the EX Div date" - then there would be no questions asked. 

The same applies to ever unclear SHARE OFFERS and the RECORD DATE for the entitlements. On one occasion (recent BSL placement) I asked the BSL support line about that patricular placement and ... the guy DID not know the answer !


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## ozbecool (25 August 2009)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporation - dividend*

An example of the 'market EX Div price correction' - from today's market: WES is EX Div today (25Aug09) - div is $0.60 and the price fall is $1.70 at the moment.


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## Tukker (10 September 2009)

I got a Buy triggered on tls today, unfortunately i have no capital to spare. Chart looks like the sell-off has been overdone. hoping for some consolidation today to confirm a buy order tomorrow.  What do you guys think?







This was in the news today also.



> Telephone company Telstra Corp (ASX: TLS.ax) may be in focus after Credit Suisse raised its rating to outperform (see [nRCHAU]).



http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090909/19/28ile.html


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## Miro (15 September 2009)

CANBERRA -- The Australian government said Tuesday it wants Telstra Corp. to the nation's largest telecommunications company, to agree to structurally separate its wholesale and retail arms as Canberra prepares to build a new 43 billion Australian dollar ($37.02 billion) high speed national broadband network.

If the group doesn't agree to structurally separate its businesses, Canberra will impose a "strong functional separation" framework on the company.

"It is the government's clear desire for Telstra to structurally separate, on a voluntary and cooperative basis," Communications Minister Stephen Conroy said in a statement.

"Telstra is one of the most highly integrated telecommunications companies in the world across the fixed-line copper, cable and mobile platforms," Mr. Conroy said.

Competition watchdog the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, and some of Telstra's rivals, had argued that the government should force a much tougher structural split on Telstra -- requiring a legal separation of Telstra's assets and activities into separate corporate entities with entirely separate owners and shareholders -- to allow the ambitious new open-access network to compete on equal footing.

The plan, contained in telecommunications legislation to be introduced into Parliament later Tuesday, would allow the government to impose a strong functional separation framework on Telstra if the telecommunications firm chooses not to voluntarily separate. That would mean that Telstra has to conduct its network operations and wholesale functions at arm's length from the rest of the group, and provide equivalent price and non-price terms to its rivals.

Continue reading at online.wsj.com/article/SB125297547118110515.html


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## freebird54 (15 September 2009)

Tukker said:


> I got a Buy triggered on tls today, unfortunately i have no capital to spare. Chart looks like the sell-off has been overdone. hoping for some consolidation today to confirm a buy order tomorrow.  What do you guys think?
> 
> 
> Nice drop today - I own 28,000 looking for some good Put premiums to get more at a discount


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## skc (15 September 2009)

The fundamentals of TLS will change so much if it was forced to separate structurally - this uncertainty makes holding this stock a risky prospect imo.

The whole situation is quite absurd with the NBN. 

The government sold off Telstra only to build and create the next TLS (i.e. NBN) again. Shouldn't there be at least some non-compete clause that limit the government competing with a business they recently sold off? 

If and when the Liberals come back into power, would the NBN be sold off to the public investors again?


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## sammy84 (15 September 2009)

The handling of TLS is a joke and a sad story for mum and dads. First it is sold off, with the government pushing people to invest. Didn’t they realise at the time when TLS was being sold that they were effectively privatising a monopoly? Now the government feels this is unfair and is trying to dissemble the monopoly. There's only one loser set of losers in all this...


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## skyQuake (15 September 2009)

skc said:


> The fundamentals of TLS will change so much if it was forced to separate structurally - this uncertainty makes holding this stock a risky prospect imo.
> 
> The whole situation is quite absurd with the NBN.
> 
> ...




And not to mention future fund unloaded right before this crap came out 
Certainly screwed the retail guys


----------



## jonnycage (15 September 2009)

well said sammy,  im will be out of all my TLS shares over the new
few days if the prices rises a little.  no point hanging on to these anymore
with a government hell bent on them failing


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## skc (15 September 2009)

jonnycage said:


> well said sammy,  im will be out of all my TLS shares over the new
> few days if the prices rises a little.  no point hanging on to these anymore
> with a government hell bent on them failing




Sold all mine this morning. Not gonna muck around for a few cents.

For all T3 investors... 

Purchased Nov 2006 for $3.6 ($2 + $1.6)
6 x dividends of 14c (Total $0.84)
Today's price $3.11

For a nice return of 9.7% return, or 3% per year...


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## sammy84 (15 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> And not to mention future fund unloaded right before this crap came out




Potential case for insider trading?? 
I'm sure the ASIC would actively pursue such an issue (typed in sarcasm)


----------



## drsmith (15 September 2009)

From Telstra's company announcement today.



> Trlstra is currently examining the detail of the reforms and will provide an update to the market as appropriate.



In terms of influence over the overall process it sounds to me like Telstra is still very much outside the tent.


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## jonnycage (15 September 2009)

skc said:


> Sold all mine this morning. Not gonna muck around for a few cents.
> 
> For all T3 investors...
> 
> ...




fair call to mate,  and am T3 subscriber so good maths there

seems a shame this puppy aint being allowed to fly

j c


----------



## drsmith (15 September 2009)

T3 investors also got 1 for 25 if they held on and paid the final instalment. That does not add much to the overall return though and if sold at today's levels would still represent a poor return on investment.


----------



## Dark1975 (15 September 2009)

It makes me sick to see a great auzzie icon can't dominate with a incompetent goverment with different set of rules for monoplies.Take a look at WOW and coles with 80% monopoly in the market.Oh wait sorry i forgot the directors of WOW have bigger pocket handouts and sit on 5 different companies at one time.
Sorry for throwing the topic,But im just upset with this latest announcement.I really thought this telco would take off.Dam this goverment


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## nikemi (15 September 2009)

Is the government going to compensate shareholders for the premium they paid them when they sold TLS initially and paid what they did for what they sold them - a monopoly, now they are concerned and want to fix things but without the cost of the mistake coming out of their pocket. 

I forgot they are the government and we are a democracy so they can do what they like and change the regulations if necessary!


----------



## skc (15 September 2009)

jonnycage said:


> fair call to mate,  and am T3 subscriber so good maths there
> 
> seems a shame this puppy aint being allowed to fly
> 
> j c




Your sarcasm detector didn't go off there...

~3 ish percent p.a. return over the last 3 years is worse than cash, but slightly better than BNB I guess.


----------



## jonnycage (15 September 2009)

skc said:


> Your sarcasm detector didn't go off there...
> 
> ~3 ish percent p.a. return over the last 3 years is worse than cash, but slightly better than BNB I guess.




dont worry it went off,  just dont waste energy on tls any more.

yep unfortunately tis a dog with fleas to boot.

let the good times roll

jc


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## ROE (15 September 2009)

nikemi said:


> Is the government going to compensate shareholders for the premium they paid them when they sold TLS initially and paid what they did for what they sold them - a monopoly, now they are concerned and want to fix things but without the cost of the mistake coming out of their pocket.
> 
> I forgot they are the government and we are a democracy so they can do what they like and change the regulations if necessary!




government never promise TLS  share holders that it will stay a monopoly or wont face regulation...
they spell out the risk in the prospectus...

when you buy a stock there is always an element of risk something goes against it and down
goes the share price...fraud, regulation, more tax, stupid CEO that gamble the company on debt etc...

I like TLS for yield only and that is not really good enough for me to buy...

This is a business that spend more than it earns for many years now and that sort of business doesnt grab 
my attention...it doesnt matter how much money you make or earn..if you spend more than you earn sooner or later
something bad may happen to you..

Now its has a pile of debt facing split up battle..could be messy stuff for them.

TLS as a whole debt isnt an issues but now spit the company into 2 that will bring some headaches of debt structure.


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## jono_oz (15 September 2009)

What I find most interesting about todays events is that no one has commented on the fact that the Goverment (The Futures Fund) Sold a huge chunk of its stake in TLS only a week ago..... wow wasn't that fortunate for them!!!! 
Could it be INSIDER TRADING??  Surely that woudn't happen!


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## supermatt (15 September 2009)

couldnt agree more with that, man I really am so fuming right now, words cannot describe my anger at the government and tls.
I am screweddddddddd big time, this is going to take years of getting out of my huge tls share loss now.
Well I feel sorry for all the rest of you that have been shafted too. 

all the best


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## ROE (15 September 2009)

jono_oz said:


> What I find most interesting about todays events is that no one has commented on the fact that the Goverment (The Futures Fund) Sold a huge chunk of its stake in TLS only a week ago..... wow wasn't that fortunate for them!!!!
> Could it be INSIDER TRADING??  Surely that woudn't happen!




If you read future fund performance and their general direction, they have been telling the market for at least a year now that they want to sell down the TLS stake and diversify...

they acted some weeks ago and carry out what they been telling the market.

I think they did not know this is coming..I mean everyone sort of know TLS will face separation sooner or later it's just a matter of timing and how.

Plus they sold it to institution holders which I'm sure fully aware of the risk
facing TLS.


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## jono_oz (15 September 2009)

ROE said:


> If you read future fund performance and their general direction, they have been telling the market for at least a year now that they want to sell down the TLS stake and diversify...
> 
> they acted some weeks ago and carry out what they been telling the market.
> 
> ...




Let us review: "Futures Fund sells 21/8 Shares were $3.65 - two days later they are $3.36. I am sure the institutions were less aware than the government about what was about to happen. Minister makes announcement 15/09 shares drom from $3.30 to $3.11" If I were an "Institution" I would certainly steer clear of any further selloffs from the Futures Fund.
Perhaps you are right and the left hand knew not what the right was up to?? I would just like to hear them say it on oath.


----------



## QBN_BOY (15 September 2009)

jono_oz said:


> Let us review: "Futures Fund sells 21/8 Shares were $3.65 - two days later they are $3.36. I am sure the institutions were less aware than the government about what was about to happen. Minister makes announcement 15/09 shares drom from $3.30 to $3.11" If I were an "Institution" I would certainly steer clear of any further selloffs from the Futures Fund.
> Perhaps you are right and the left hand knew not what the right was up to?? I would just like to hear them say it on oath.





Which companies have been toughing for a strategic stake in Foxtel via Consolidated Media Holdings the last couple of weeks. Naive to think no information was out there prior to the TLS announcement.


----------



## skc (15 September 2009)

jono_oz said:


> Let us review: "Futures Fund sells 21/8 Shares were $3.65 - two days later they are $3.36. I am sure the institutions were less aware than the government about what was about to happen. Minister makes announcement 15/09 shares drom from $3.30 to $3.11" If I were an "Institution" I would certainly steer clear of any further selloffs from the Futures Fund.
> Perhaps you are right and the left hand knew not what the right was up to?? I would just like to hear them say it on oath.




Don't be a silly conspiracy theorist. Future fund sold 684.4 million Telstra shares at a price of $3.47. So they may be $250m better off. Would the government risk that kind of backlash from voters (TLS shareholders) for such amount?

In fact, the government is probably pi$$ed off that the Future fund sold at such time causing these kinds of allegations. Having said that, if Future Fund was to sell right after today's announcement that would be just as damaging to the government. So either way - it was hard for government to make good of this absurd situation.


----------



## ROE (16 September 2009)

jono_oz said:


> Let us review: "Futures Fund sells 21/8 Shares were $3.65 - two days later they are $3.36. I am sure the institutions were less aware than the government about what was about to happen. Minister makes announcement 15/09 shares drom from $3.30 to $3.11" If I were an "Institution" I would certainly steer clear of any further selloffs from the Futures Fund.
> Perhaps you are right and the left hand knew not what the right was up to?? I would just like to hear them say it on oath.




People find all kind of excuses for their loss but themselves for not knowing enough about the business and the nature of the industry..

I got ripped off by storm, oh its not my fault it's finanical advisor and greedy banks werent you greedy also in the first place beleive you can get easy return in the stock market?

Wespoint I got con
oh getting 12% is easy?

Opes Prime, leverage up to buy small cap and speculative stocks
oh it's not my fault I was con into it and didnt understand the contract

leverage up and buy speculative stocks are nothing more than gambling on steroids.

and there are thousands who never get burn or fall into these traps
and make good return, can we think they are lucky or they do their homework 

its your money, you make the decision take some responsibility


----------



## Nyden (16 September 2009)

ROE said:


> People find all kind of excuses for their loss but themselves for not knowing enough about the business and the nature of the industry..
> 
> I got ripped off by storm, oh its not my fault it's finanical advisor and greedy banks werent you greedy also in the first place beleive you can get easy return in the stock market?
> 
> ...




Damn straight. If you ask me, anyone caught up in those sorts of schemes *deserves* to lose everything. May as well send $50K to the Nigerian Prince, you know, to cover the transaction costs in his efforts to send you $10 million.


----------



## Calliope (16 September 2009)

Most brokers are optimistic, and see an upward trend with the opportunity to get involved in the National Broadband related deal; 



> Oversold and misunderstood and $4.55 target is the UBS headline. They have a Buy recommendation share price reaction they say is “overblown” and separating might potentially liberate TLS in a NBN world. “Capital management or media M&A could also be an option post separation.”
> 
> Macquarie Equities upped their recommendation to Outperform from Neutral on the view that the reforms will provide “a catalyst for significant progress towards an NBN-related deal by the year-end.” Now that the regulatory risk in known, they think the catalyst for constructive dialogue on NBN outcomes has arrived and a progress towards an NBN-related deal with follow by the year-end. They have a 360c target price.
> 
> ...


----------



## Miro (16 September 2009)

Calliope said:


> Most brokers are optimistic, and see an upward trend with the opportunity to get involved in the National Broadband related deal;



Yea, I'm really happy I didn't sell today. I bought quite a bit of TLS just 5 days ago and I was ready to take the losses and move on.

I don't like Telstra but it seems very cheap at the moment, so I'll keep holding.


----------



## YELNATS (16 September 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> Take a look at WOW and coles with 80% monopoly in the market.




There is no existing parallel between the telco and retail food markets. 

Woolies and Coles aren't a monopoly in their market. A monopoly means one seller, many or at least more than one buyer (mono = one). Retail food market is an oligopoly.


----------



## The Owls (17 September 2009)

Quote "Telstra shares have rebounded from losses driven by fears its likely structural separation will hurt earnings, with analysts now predicting changes to the business could actually improve shareholder value."

The above quote was in the shares to watch today in thebull.com.au today. As a retired person looking after our own superannuation fund how can we take the advise serious when Tuesday the market for TLS shares was down down down and yesterday was up up up. Today we read that what the Government did could now be good for TLS shareholders. Is the spin, a guess or just hope. 

Where were the analysts on Tuesday who are now predicting the changes to the business could actually improve shareholder value.  Every analyst is smart after the event.


----------



## Gillie (17 September 2009)

Does anyone know what the breakdown of TLS is in terms of Retail, wholesale and the Foxtel is as a percentage?

If you have any articles on this it would be much appreciated.


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## Kieran (20 September 2009)

After the govt announcement I did a bit of research on Telstra after consistently dismissing it as an evil monopoly for the past couple of years. I believe the split will be a great thing for the country in terms of competition but also gives shareholders certainty with regard to how the company can/will proceed into the future.

At a price of $3.10 (about a 4.6% drop from Friday's close of $3.25) and assuming dividends hold at 28c/pa, that is a fully franked dividend of 9%.
Of course there is always the possible upside or downside with regard to the split of the company but I doubt it's the end of the world for Telstra. At $3.10 I'll likely dip my toes in the water, unless there's some bad news in the meantime.


----------



## mikes (20 September 2009)

did i hear that canberra is threatening to give all the new generation mobile spectrum to the singapore owned optus and other foreign owned companies and zilch new spectrum to ozzie icon ( with large shareholdings from the ozzie battlers) telstra - surely not.

prev held telstra, not now, though some rellies have small holdings.


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## Kieran (20 September 2009)

I haven't heard that at all (the optus part)

The Government has said as long as Telstra doesn't split (etc...) then the government will block any attempt by Telstra to acquire further radio spectrum for their mobile network. This is legally allowable since the Government owns the spectrum (or at least the licenses to use it) which makes it a very important bargaining piece.

Whether or not that spectrum is then sold to competitors is, in my opinion, irrelevant as Telstra needs it regardless. Telstra not having it is just as bad as no one having it or a competitor having it - if it's not under Telstra's control they can't make money from it and the Government knows this - hence their "threat"


----------



## TheAbyss (21 September 2009)

Thought i would throw in my two cents worth regarding TLS and the NBN.

Any NBN roll out will have to be via existing infrastructure hence why the govt is now talking break up. Reason being they need access to the copper network. 

Once the copper network is available they can look to deliver an NBN to deliver video and data to all and sundry (similar to Hong Kong where you can order a single pay TV channel; if you like). The NBN will use a device which allows them to transmit data over a copper cable using an end point similar to an ADSL modem. That will allow delivery without the billions required to lay fibre everywhere.

BTW the hardware is NEC in HK so no real gain for us here.

So the question for TLS holders is will we get a fair price or not? We will however the trade off will be TLS involvement in the NBN roll out is no longer a must once this happens as it becomes an auction to see who can provid ethe hardware and billing once the last mile is resolved. 

A bit to think about and thought provoking i hope. 

Key points are 

1.Do TLS get a fair price for the infrastructure? - If so a positive for holders
2. Without the leverage that the infrastructure provides what do Telstra have to offer that the competitors do not? Price war helps no one.


----------



## shiftyphil (21 September 2009)

TheAbyss said:


> Any NBN roll out will have to be via existing infrastructure hence why the govt is now talking break up. Reason being they need access to the copper network.
> 
> Once the copper network is available they can look to deliver an NBN to deliver video and data to all and sundry (similar to Hong Kong where you can order a single pay TV channel; if you like). The NBN will use a device which allows them to transmit data over a copper cable using an end point similar to an ADSL modem. That will allow delivery without the billions required to lay fibre everywhere.




There's no copper in the NBN. It's been fibre all the way for a while now.

They've already announced it'll be GPON.


----------



## skyQuake (21 September 2009)

shiftyphil said:


> There's no copper in the NBN. It's been fibre all the way for a while now.
> 
> They've already announced it'll be GPON.




No copper? Thats a bummer for shareholders. At least if it was copper wiring it could be cashed in for scrap metal!


----------



## TheAbyss (21 September 2009)

shiftyphil said:


> There's no copper in the NBN. It's been fibre all the way for a while now.
> 
> They've already announced it'll be GPON.




And how many years will that take to realise?

In the interim, by buying the infrastructure arm from Telstra (Valued between 10 and 20 billion dollars by analysts) The govt will allow the successful NBN bidder access to all of the copper infrastructure comprising of the copper itself, ducts, conduits and pipes. 

This will allow the bidder to use the ducts and conduits etc to run the fibre which is the end goal.

However in the shorter term they can also offer a copper based solution which will allow them to fulfill the govt mandate of delivering data to every household with the added benefit of generating revenue which they could use to fund the roll out the fibre on an interim  basis.


----------



## shiftyphil (21 September 2009)

TheAbyss said:


> And how many years will that take to realise?
> 
> In the interim, by buying the infrastructure arm from Telstra (Valued between 10 and 20 billion dollars by analysts) The govt will allow the successful NBN bidder access to all of the copper infrastructure comprising of the copper itself, ducts, conduits and pipes.
> 
> ...




The original NBN proposal was scrapped months ago.
http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/media_releases/2009/022

There is no 'bidder' anymore. There's a new goverment owned company to build and manage a completely new network.


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## TheAbyss (21 September 2009)

Sorry. Replace bidder with "The Company". Was that changed because the net value of the NBN as proposed was negative $9 billion?

If Telstra get $8-10 billion for the infrastructure plus costs for restructuring their It systems etc (estimated at approximately 2.5 billion) then it could be good for everyone all round.

No winners if a separate infrastructure is used so whatever happens it must use the existing trenches etc or the project will never get off the ground. Aerial is not an option and the economics say a separate trench to what is there is not viable.

Great to have some constructive comments on where readers feel this will end up.


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## johannlo (24 September 2009)

I would love for a parallel universe opportunity to call the govt's bluff. 

I would not trust a brand new, govt appointed organisation to competently execute a massive and complex engineering project like the proposed NBN. For heaven's sake they're gone all in without even having concrete figures available. Its not viable without getting Telstra's assets/cooperation and everybody who knows anything about telecoms knows this. 

For arguments sake, say Telstra sticks to their guns, loss of medium term future revenue (ie 4G frequencies, only an issue in 3-5 years time and even then tech may develop to further utilise existing 3.5G/UTMS better)  is easily compensated (in medium term I stress) by existing flows, and Telstra already has a friggin NBN for all intents and purposes (from a big picture economic POV, the single digit % where its uneconomical to roll out doesn't count). They could easily roll out enough infrastructure so the last mile copper is pushing 20Megs plus to vast majority of households (already do actually). 

Meanwhile the govt has to build it all from scratch, with zero income stream. And where are they getting their engineers from? Do you expect Optus, AAPT, Soul and all the other bit players to be able to organise a piss-up in a brewery? The only bullet left is further regulatory smackdown. 

If nobody blinks then its actually Telstra holding the cards. But the govt is now in a corner (of their own making) and Conroy is a mongrel (a stupid one at that but still a mongrel) and I do not expect him to back down now that he's placed his cards and reputation on the block.  The best outcome we can hope for, from both a citizen and a TLS investor POV, is that a compromise is reached whereby TLS participates and assists in NBN whilst being compensated with fair value. Now did that really need the govt to turn around and play Sol, we only just got rid of him lol.


----------



## TheAbyss (25 September 2009)

johannlo said:


> I would love for a parallel universe opportunity to call the govt's bluff.
> 
> I would not trust a brand new, govt appointed organisation to competently execute a massive and complex engineering project like the proposed NBN. For heaven's sake they're gone all in without even having concrete figures available. Its not viable without getting Telstra's assets/cooperation and everybody who knows anything about telecoms knows this.
> 
> ...





Great post. 

One way to ensure Telstra stays interested (which is a must for this to get some traction) is when (if) the infrastructure is hived out for the NBN, Telstra take a mix of cash and Equity. That way Telstra will have some strong reasons to migrate their base over to the NBN. Cash short term and increasing revenues long term is a popular theme with share holders.


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## ROE (25 September 2009)

if TLS dont play ball the government can just
fund the whole NBN, force TLS to split.

Sell the NBN as a public float at half price and on the cheap and let the new investors compete with Telstra 

Competition Solved

Cant remember when was the last time a company fight the government and wins 
it's like kids get into an argument with their mum and dad who rules the house, who make the law
and has endless pocket and the kid expect their parents to bend to their will


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## johannlo (26 September 2009)

fund the nbn how?

They already expect 49% funding from private investment - WITHOUT any proper costings or showing how ROI can be achieved. A quick google will get you lots of back of envelope costings that show that its v difficult - if not impossible - to achieve a ROI that will attract private capital, without charging high costs and assuming massive uptake. 

Here's just a few links

http://www.crn.com.au/News/155202,nbn-cost-debate-picks-up-steam.aspx

http://www.commsday.com/node/325

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-myth-of-NBN-profits-pd20090731-UG4FD?OpenDocument

You might be right if this was a dictatorship, but the government does not have that luxury of being able to throw away billions without a massive backlash, also blowing a hole in the budget. 

lets also not forget the legal issue i.e. if they go too heavy with regulation and destroy shareholder value - the value that they sold off in T1, 2, 3. 

Here's a genius idea: NBN is going to cost ~43 billion they say. TLS's market cap is: ~43 billion, with an NBN already effectively in operation and retail arms making good profits. Also govt already has some of the shares so it won't cost 43 billion. See how I am joining the dots..... why is it that this most obvious of approaches (re-nationalise Telstra) has not even been discussed?


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## boofhead (26 September 2009)

My assumption would be because it would involve buyings lots of copper, ADSL equipment etc. that will be superseded. Add to that it doesn't give people fibre etc. that is starting to be rolled out now.


----------



## johannlo (26 September 2009)

Copper is far from superceded, greater and greater speeds are being squeezed out of DSL technologies all the time . Here is a hint:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Very_high_bitrate_digital_subscriber_line

Far more economical to increase DSLAM coverage (more exchanges, FTTN, whatever) than run expensive fibre to everyone's house when most people don't want to be paying for the privilege. Those who want it, give them an option to pay for the cost themselves. 

Either that or give up the backyard and two cars and squeeze everyone into hi rise flats, how do you think Hong Kong and South Korea etc. can deliver 100 megs to the door and make it economically viable? Basically they have FTTN to the basement of the apartment / housing estates then the 'last mile' is still copper (ie up 20 stories instead of 3 kms but the principle and architecture is identical). They don't actually run fibre into each individual household per se.  

Its pretty simple really and I am astounded how policymakers want to have their cake and eat it too. If you read any industry publications or articles written by telecoms people / engineers they are all saying the same thing I am saying. Would love to see Conroy ripped to shreds in a public debate with a bunch of real life comms engineers. 

From your comment I get the impression that you don't realise how much fibre Telstra has and how its entire backhaul network is pretty much fibre already, its just last mile that is copper. 
And Telstra's fibre backbone has far more capacity than most laypeople are aware of and can easily roll out more 'nodes' to reduce the distance covered by last mile copper, its simple economics why they haven't done so (hint: because there is no competitive pressure) because their key driver is to maximise profits.  

If we nationalise the Telstra infrastructure then it could act as the NBN effectively at a fraction of the cost and risk (building a new network is an unknown, we know what the current network is, how it works, and what can be done with it). Instead we gamble with the option of building a duplicate, over-specced network using nonexistent costings and with no business plan that anybody can discern. This is what happens when you let pollies make an engineering decision (heck even the accountants wouldn't have been so stupid, and in fact those types are amongst the ones pointing out the clear lack of figures in the government's plan).


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## Gamblor (26 September 2009)

Greater speeds may be getting squeezed out of DSL but the main problem will always be signal degradation. FTTH is fantastic infrustructure and i can't wait for the NBN to get up and running. Yes the costs will be high but I think it will actually end up being a very good spend in the long run.

As for TLS.... I no longer hold it and don't plan on buying again anytime soon.


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## Buster (26 September 2009)

G'Day ROE,



ROE said:


> if TLS dont play ball the government can just
> fund the whole NBN, force TLS to split.
> 
> Sell the NBN as a public float at half price and on the cheap and let the new investors compete with Telstra




Ha ha.. Wow, theres an idea.. 

Lets get all those people who *didn't* take part in the Telstra float to invest in the NBN float.. Surely there are some shmucks out there that'll buy into the NBN despite the contsant gut kicking we've given Telstra.. We promise we won't flog the NBN the way we have TLS.. Honest.. 

Only a mug would buy in after witnessing the TLS events unfold over the last few years.. 

Cheers,

Buster


----------



## ROE (26 September 2009)

Buster said:


> G'Day ROE,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




You probably wont but I would if it's sell below its intrinsic value
I make lot of money out of TLS 

Sold T1 for $8, T2 was over value didn't buy, T3 Sold for $4.50 
No longer Hold TLS, there are much better stocks


----------



## ROE (26 September 2009)

johannlo said:


> fund the nbn how?
> 
> They already expect 49% funding from private investment - WITHOUT any proper costings or showing how ROI can be achieved. A quick google will get you lots of back of envelope costings that show that its v difficult - if not impossible - to achieve a ROI that will attract private capital, without charging high costs and assuming massive uptake.
> 
> ...




Dont understand estimate the length the government go through to keep their election promise, save face and meet agenda, they borrow extra $25B if they have to  and they make laws
to damage TLS if they have to....well they already started.....split up or no more wireless spectrum for you....it's like a gun to the head...

Government can build for $50B and flock to Joe Public on the cheap like they did with TLS because after all it's tax payer money...


----------



## boofhead (26 September 2009)

johannlo: I understand how much fibre they have. Backhaul network is not to the premises. Telstra basically have fibre to the node in many areas - Telstra messed up assuming FTTN would go ahead.

Read up on the limitations of the DSL variations. Read up on what Telstra has done to reduce cost for copper network expansions. Many cost cutting exercises hurt what would come later - ADSL (and the other DSL variations.) The general pattern is to increase performance the better the line conditions need to be and the shorter the distance. I'm sure many may remember the other cockups - using the gel so waterproof joins that could become an expensive option and did in areas.

Japan and South Korean governments have put some public money in to their networks. They also put in conditions that helped the consumer which eventually help the network operator.

Building more phone exchanges will add a number of costs. The building lease or purchase, fitouts, electrical bills etc.

Telstra has been working with a Canadian based company and managed to get 10 and 40 gigabits per fibre for long haul.

I would love to see fibre grow from being backbone of the network to being the basis of the majority of the network.


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## Dreadweave (9 October 2009)

Not a good day for TLS, 
I see that the ACTU has expressed cncearns about job losses if the split goes ahead but is this the only reason? I cant see how this would be a problem.
can anyone elaborate as to the cause of the drop today?


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## cornnfedd (27 October 2009)

does anyone know why my telstra shares dont show up on computershare.com.au?

all of my others do, but not telstra (which i have been holding forever)


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## Real1ty (27 October 2009)

cornnfedd said:


> does anyone know why my telstra shares dont show up on computershare.com.au?
> 
> all of my others do, but not telstra (which i have been holding forever)




Because they are managed by Link

http://www.linkmarketservices.com.au/public/home.html

...........................................................................


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## cornnfedd (27 October 2009)

cheers, trust telstra to be different than everyone else. grr 

any positive news with telstra lately or is this now a dead dog?


----------



## Phantum (28 October 2009)

Here was me thinking the call for telecommunications reform legislation was to encourage more competition, according to government and the 'competition'.  Now it appears that some of the competition are retreating because is is too hot!!!  Maybe some are reading the stories about there being more in the Governments pie than that ...



> One of the people said SingTel could raise between $US4 billion to $US5 billion ($4.4bn to ($5.5bn), and that the money could be used to gain a foothold in Vietnam, China or Africa.
> 
> "There's not too much money to be made in Australia. It's a mature market and competition is very intense. Right now SingTel is thinking of selling a minority stake, but this can change depending on market conditions," the person said.




Oops I can not post links as have previously only been a reader ... but you can find the article on "The Australian" business section under the title Singapore Telecommunications mulls Optus IPO to raise up to $5.5bn.

Maybe someone else could link ...


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## Dreadweave (31 October 2009)

Some nice movement in the past week for TLS.

Im happy to hold something conservative in this upcoming predicted correction.


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## kotim (5 November 2009)

Telstra is very close to a significant long term low,if it has not allready made it at 2.93.  On the attached chart you will see that I have 1-1 equality lines at 2.90.  The market has allready made a low at 2.93 which as far as I am concerned would normally be acceptable allowance, however why I think that the 2.90 will occur is that we are currently in very clear wave action down in this leg.  You will see I have marked the ABC .382 on the chart and Telstra hit the mark perfectly, as well as that if you look slightly to the lef tyou will see tha the 382 is in line with a wave 4 of smaller degree.

It is the exact .382 retrace ABC correction that makes me think we will see a break below 2.93, but with an immediate turnaround.

anyway only time will tell, but I intend to buy if it gets there


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## ROE (5 November 2009)

cornnfedd said:


> cheers, trust telstra to be different than everyone else. grr
> 
> any positive news with telstra lately or is this now a dead dog?




Been a dog every since it floated...share price gone no where in 10 years,
Probably one of the worse performing stocks in the ASX..

in those 10 years put your money into JBH, TRS, REH, BKL,CAB
you can now retire


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## Knobby22 (6 November 2009)

I don't own any and have long considered Telstra a dog however there is the glimmering of greyhound.

If Testra can wind up with cash and a decent share of the new fibre optic network it could become a very valuable company. The yield is 9.1%, PE ratio a bit over 9. Really starting to get on my radar.


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## Paul Ellis (6 November 2009)

9% + fully franked at the moment - I am happy just to sit on it for the dividends and wait until everyone realises they have overreacted to the NBN issue.


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## McCoy Pauley (23 November 2009)

The dividend stream is the only reason why I've held onto my stake in TLS (I hold 2,000 shares, purchased in the T1 float).

The legislation to force a separation of Telstra's businesses will go before the Senate this week.  It will either (a) pass the Senate (but only with the support of the independents) unamended (b) it is rejected with or without amendments or (c) debate is deferred until the next sitting of the Senate, in February 2010.

I imagine that this will have a big impact on the share price one way or the other this week.


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## McCoy Pauley (24 November 2009)

According to the AFR today, the legislation will be debated in the Senate on Thursday but given their full plate with the ETS scheme, it will be highly unlikely that anything will happen on the legislation until next year.


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## bloomy88 (24 November 2009)

McCoy Pauley said:


> According to the AFR today, the legislation will be debated in the Senate on Thursday but given their full plate with the ETS scheme, it will be highly unlikely that anything will happen on the legislation until next year.




Pretty standard move from the politicians, im tipping not until next year as well. It's annoying though because i think that the SP will respond positively to any legislation announcement, i think people just want to know definately what's going to happen...


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## McCoy Pauley (24 November 2009)

bloomy88 said:


> Pretty standard move from the politicians, im tipping not until next year as well. It's annoying though because i think that the SP will respond positively to any legislation announcement, i think people just want to know definately what's going to happen...




On the flipside, it would give the Telstra board time to negotiate with the Government to try to forestall the passage of the legislation and come up with a plan that maximises the shareholders' return.


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## condog (16 December 2009)

I have been watching Telstra for some time (7 years or so) and believe they are turning the corner. The ROE has stabilised and is beginning to rise, they have stopped paying dividends from borrowed money. 

The market over reacted to the split announcment which was priced at approx 6-11c per share cost to split....So I got in at $3.10 for a big parcel....

happy to take the yeild and see.....but on fundamentals its always been a dog until recently.....

My primary concern is its high debt at 128% debt to equity..... One has to wonder why a company with huge free cash flow needs such a huge amount of debt..... There books are toooooooo complex for me to bother investigating, but I do have concerns they may be placing expenses (software etc ) on thier balnce sheet as assets and hence that may justify the debt.....This is not fact , its just one possibility I have come up with....

If thats the case , even though they can depreciate those assets , there will inevitably remain high replacement costs or write downs of assets at some point in time.....None the less their position seems to have hit the bottom 18 months ago and seems to me to be improving each report since.

The fact thats not reflected in the current price due to investor anxiety over a possible split / NBN outcome is a positive for a buy.... on correction of course...


----------



## syang12 (27 January 2010)

The market was weak recently, while Tls is quite strong. I belive it's safe to have some Tls as XAO is still in the high position.  I changed ANZ to TLS last week. Any suggestion?


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## McCoy Pauley (27 January 2010)

I suggest you do your own research, syang12.  No member of ASF can give you financial advice.

I have to confess that I'm bearish on TLS long-term.  The NBN has the big ability to really reduce the income earning potential of TLS and unless TLS can negotiate a favourable outcome with NBN Co., there is the potential for NBN Co to wipe billions off the assets sheet of TLS.

I'm not sure about the pedigree of the CEO, either.  I do have confidence in the chairperson, having seen her work wonders at COH in a previous role.  But the CEO will need to be very adroit at working through the political ramifications of the NBN.  In going up against Sen. Conroy, David Thodey will need to be very politically astute.

I'm also concerned about the extremely high debt to equity ratio of TLS.


----------



## Trembling Hand (27 January 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I have to confess that I'm bearish on TLS long-term.  The NBN has the big ability to really reduce the income earning potential of TLS and unless TLS can negotiate a favourable outcome with NBN Co., there is the potential for NBN Co to wipe billions off the assets sheet of TLS.
> 
> I'm not sure about the pedigree of the CEO, either.  I do have confidence in the chairperson, having seen her work wonders at COH in a previous role.  But the CEO will need to be very adroit at working through the political ramifications of the NBN.  In going up against Sen. Conroy, David Thodey will need to be very politically astute.
> 
> I'm also concerned about the extremely high debt to equity ratio of TLS.




Yes the management question. After trying a radical and getting burnt and ridiculed they have swung the other way which is a shame as the company seems to have a cultural problem that they just cannot shake. It seems strange of Thodey to state that they need to focus on their appalling customer service or perception of it, yet pretty much go about the same old same old. With the same old mangers that are indoctrinated in the telstra way of doing the same poor job 

The board has a meeting soon. Wonder what great ideas will come of that? Will be a good idea of Thodeys vision/ideas or lack there of.

On the NBN as a long term idea it could be good one. Drop all the old assets into it while taking care of debt/cash injection then ramp up their 3G over the top of the government's NBN as a better, cheaper more convenient system.


----------



## syang12 (27 January 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> I suggest you do your own research, syang12.  No member of ASF can give you financial advice.
> 
> I have to confess that I'm bearish on TLS long-term.  The NBN has the big ability to really reduce the income earning potential of TLS and unless TLS can negotiate a favourable outcome with NBN Co., there is the potential for NBN Co to wipe billions off the assets sheet of TLS.
> 
> ...




Thanks, McCoy Pauley. 

I'm quite new to the market(only 10 months) and very new to this forum. I'd held ANZ for almost 9 months. It gained more than 40%. However, during the same period, Tls remained silent. That's why I switch from ANZ to TLS.  Plus the company devidends are coming soon.

And you are right. I need do more research on the company and industry background. 

Thanks again


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## lcl999 (27 January 2010)

I still think that the best strategy for TLS and its long suffering shareholders is to split the company. Current shareholders get one for one in, say, Telstra Utility(TUT) plus one for one in, say, Telstra Info. Technology (TIT).

TUT runs the NBN and the existing copper network. There should be no incentive to favour any perticular customer. Good boring safe low risk income from a utility. 

TIT can get on with the business of selling mobile phone services, internet services, and whatever comes next. And can also look to do the same overseas. Higher risk and volatility, and higher potential for profit.

The current situation will have TLS senior management continually fighting the govt. and the regulator rather than focussing on new revenue.


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## McCoy Pauley (1 February 2010)

Bill to split Telstra delayed again by the Government.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...the-senate-again/story-e6frg8zx-1225825242498

Interesting to see how this plays out.  The last TLS said anything official was back in mid-December 2009 when TLS announced that it had agreed the foundations for the negotiations with the Government.

As I noted above, I'm bearish on the long-term future of TLS.  Sen. Conroy will like nothing better than to whack the Opposition over TLS and that, IMO, means that TLS will suffer, just so that Sen. Conroy can trumpet to the voters that, unlike Sen. Coonan and the other Liberal telco ministers before her (Alston, I think?), Conroy can control TLS and get TLS to dance to his tune.


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## DeCal (10 February 2010)

I think a bearish outlook on TLS is a safe outlook. They've minimal growth potential and a lot of regulation risks.

But maybe I am bias as they've done wrong be me too many times!


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## McCoy Pauley (11 February 2010)

1H10 report out now - see here.

Revenue and profit both down on the corresponding period from 2008/09.  Dividend held at the same level (14c per share fully franked). Operating expenses fell 4.8%, which was a bigger fall than the revenue fall.

Interesting to note TLS' comments on the discussions with the government concerning the NBN.  They're very short, as far as I can tell.


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## ROE (11 February 2010)

DeCal said:


> I think a bearish outlook on TLS is a safe outlook. They've minimal growth potential and a lot of regulation risks.
> 
> But maybe I am bias as they've done wrong be me too many times!




watch that PSTN decline, initially 1-2% then 4.x% now up to nearly 7% 
it's a scary trend ..if it decline any faster they are in for a rude awakening

with smaller rival taking their broadband and wireless market how are they going to make up for PSTN lost revenue?

plus broadband market is now is fairly complete and saturate, they have to steal rival customers and with price struture like TLS I doubt many will move over...

PS: this quater they can add me in as 1 more getting rid of LAN line and all mobile and VoIP all with iinet


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## Boognish (11 February 2010)

> plus broadband market is now is fairly complete and saturate, they have to steal rival customers and with price struture like TLS I doubt many will move over...




I can confirm this.  Just went shopping for ADSL and TLS were the most expensive of all I looked at, even moreso if you don't want to use them for your landline.


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## McCoy Pauley (11 February 2010)

TLS share price absolutely pounded down today (almost 6.0% drop).  Missing market expectations and no update given on the negotiations with the Govt on the NBN really hammered TLS today.


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## BrightGreenGlow (15 February 2010)

Mmm, last week TLS suffered 2 big DOWN days... interesting to note that the Government FF will be able to sell their shares again soon..... may find TLS to be under the $3 mark?

Surely TLS must make a deal of some sort and be a big player in the NBN.... one can only help this news raises the share price to atleat $3.34 so I can come out even....

Its sad that the Government is constantly ******* TLS in the rear end.


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## drsmith (15 February 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Its sad that the Government is constantly ******* TLS in the rear end.



To be fair honours here have been shared somewhat between the Government and TLS's management/board.

There has been a long history of poor decisions by the board of directors itself. These include;

1) Purchasing overpriced assets at the height of the dot-com boom (Who remembers Reach ?).
2) Going to war with the government over FTTN (Sol Trujillo).
3) And more recently not adapting quikly enough to changing market conditions.


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## Trembling Hand (15 February 2010)

drsmith said:


> 2) Going to war with the government over FTTN (Sol Trujillo).
> 3) And more recently not adapting quickly enough to changing market conditions.




I'm not so sure about that. it was the war of the wholesale pricing that did the damage yet I'm not so sure they had any other way to go, maybe a tactical change but still they had to fight the battle. And really it was with Samuel & competitors.

And on the adapting to changing market thats just wrong. Telstra is in first position with new tech, note the world first roll out of 3G Dual Carrier just announced. The unavoidable problem is that their highly profitable PTSN business is fading away very fast. They are positioned to cover it but they will _not _have a monopoly in it. There is nothing they can do about it, Monopoly is gone. That is where their problems lie.


Just on that upgrading of 3G, ever increasing the pressure on Conroy's 50 bil disaster. Thats where their biggest advantage now is, spread of fast 3-4G wireless.


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## BrightGreenGlow (15 February 2010)

Some good points there.... where do you guys see the TLS price by mid year though? Say if the FFund sell another heap of shares, could we see it in the $2.80s??


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## drsmith (16 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm not so sure about that. it was the war of the wholesale pricing that did the damage yet I'm not so sure they had any other way to go, maybe a tactical change but still they had to fight the battle. And really it was with Samuel & competitors.



They could have submitted a valid proposal in relation to FTTN.



Trembling Hand said:


> And on the adapting to changing market thats just wrong. Telstra is in first position with new tech, note the world first roll out of 3G Dual Carrier just announced. The unavoidable problem is that their highly profitable PTSN business is fading away very fast. They are positioned to cover it but they will _not _have a monopoly in it. There is nothing they can do about it, Monopoly is gone. That is where their problems lie.



PTSN is fading much faster than the directors anticipated judging by the revenue downgrades.



Trembling Hand said:


> Just on that upgrading of 3G, ever increasing the pressure on Conroy's 50 bil disaster. Thats where their biggest advantage now is, spread of fast 3-4G wireless.



What's the garantee that the NBN will even go ahead in any substantive form ?

Policy failure seems to be this government's defining characteristic.


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## malachii (16 February 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Some good points there.... where do you guys see the TLS price by mid year though? Say if the FFund sell another heap of shares, could we see it in the $2.80s??




If you take out the dividend (14cents - goes ex on Friday) it is already trading below $3 and i'm willing to bet that a lot of people are only holding until it goes ex.  I think more blood letting will start monday.

My opinion only and I hold no shares - although I infrequently short term trade it.

malachii


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## Taltan (17 February 2010)

I don't have much faith in TLS board however at 28c dividend any price under $3.20 is still a bargain. We're talking 8.75% + franking credits return per annum, no need for Capital Growth. 

What I have faith in is that if the govt hammers TLS anymore the dividend will drop and then lots of mums and dads (who vote) will not be happy. A lot more voters hold TLS than any other stock, it all very well for Rudd to prop his NBN (knowing that a lot of voters only care about the dividend) but anymore squeezing of TLS and voters will not be happy. Thus I'm tipping that all else being equal TLS will hover around $3-$3.50 for awhile making enough cash to pay the dividend. 

8.75% not bad value, especially as there is a small chance of upside. Just my $0.02 worth very interested if other people think I should sell it all.


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## Trembling Hand (17 February 2010)

Taltan said:


> I don't have much faith in TLS board however at 28c dividend any price under $3.20 is still a bargain. We're talking 8.75% + franking credits return per annum, no need for Capital Growth.
> 
> Thus I'm tipping that all else being equal TLS will hover around $3-$3.50 for awhile making enough cash to pay the dividend.
> 
> 8.75% not bad value, especially as there is a small chance of upside.




If the PSTN is 30% of their biz and its falling at a rapid rate, in fact falling at an accelerated rate, and their other juicy biz is under pressure from competitors. How long is that 8% div gonna last. There's a fair amount of unknown risk in that div I reckon.


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## Taltan (17 February 2010)

They still own the last mile of copper to the home and they're in a pretty defensive industry. Also PTSN is surely not news. I agree the 8.75% could drop but I doubt by much. 

There's a lot of regulation risk in the current price and I think that if it starts to fall away too much I bet our pollies would rather change some laws than annoy the voters. Profits maybe dropping but if you modify ACCC/NBN rules TLS becomes very profitable.

I view TLS like the banks, if they make too much the govt brings out the sledgehammer (so upside is minimal) however there's definately a floor to keep paying that dividend


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## ROE (17 February 2010)

Keep holding and hoping TLS will do better and turn around but 10 years of under-performing I cant see much future ahead.

TLS may own the last mile but if people dont use them, how are they going to make money?... People gone wireless, mobile and ditch PSTN all together

and remember PSTN margin is big and fat, for every bucks they lose in PSTN they need to make more than one buck else where to retain the same profit. 

I see TLS holders in the same basket case as Fosters 

hoping each year their share price will increase only to face one disappointment after the other...

TLS do have a moat but they dont know how to defence it that moat is disappearing fast each day as their small rival keep dig in a few percent each year

then you look at a small player like CAB who has iron grip on taxi payment system and it can fence off rival 10 or 100 times its size...Visa got a bloody nose and Mac bank got bloody nose when they try to cut into CAB market.
they all either quit the game or play by CAB rules 

Have patient if you want TLS you can get them below $3 very soon...as soon as future fund start selling a few more percent


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## Iggy_Pop (17 February 2010)

ROE, I have to agree with you. I am thinking about selling my Telstra shares as there is little chance of upside and many reasons for downside and dividend reduction. The only hope is the NBN outcome does something to boost the SP, but that when I will sell and move on to something else.


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## malachii (17 February 2010)

Taltan,

The 2 problems I have with your theory are:

  - While at first an 8.75% return sounds great, if the price drops (as I believe it will) then you are losing $.  It wont take long for you too eat up your whole dividend on capital loss.  I don't know what you paid for your shares but if you have bought anytime in the last few months - you may already be sitting on a loss the size of the next div - or maybe more.  If you've owned the shares for years you have either made a large capital loss (shares were above $9 i think at one stage) or - if you bought them on the initial float - you have made no capital gains for years.  Even if you were astute enough to buy them below the current price - you still will have seen very little capital growth and I suspect more likely a loss.  

You say yourself that there is not much hope of capital gain so again - your money is not working that hard and with massive bad news around and a very large shareholder making it known they want to unload large amounts of stock - your downside risk is quite high.

  - The other problem I see is with the div itself.  The company has for years been borrowing money to pay the dividend.  This cannot go on forever.  The age old response "we'll pay it with future cashflow growth" is looking less and less plausible as they are now admitting their "cash cow" - the PTSN - is declining at an accelerating rate.  Unless they can pull a "non capital intensive" cash cow out of the hat - surely dividends must reduce.  This will cause a decrease in share price and now we've been hit with a double loss - a capital loss and less dividend.

This is my opinion only - I dont hold Telstra although I admit I am watching it in case of a short term trade.

Just to finish I'll give you a real world example.  My mother bought both TLS and WOW when they first floated.  For the first few years she made good money out of both but then the inevitable - "I need some cash for..." came and she decided to sell WOW because TLS was paying a better dividend.  The difference in her returns between then and now are such that I refuse to calculate them because I know it will only cause her more grief!

malachii

PS - FWIW the "last mile of copper" is now pure B.S.  We moved house 6 months ago and we decided not to get a home phone.  We use our mobiles and I use wireless internet.  We went from having everything through Telstra to nothing - and the only difference we notice is we dont have any problems.  We are not the only ones!


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## drsmith (17 February 2010)

At a yield of 8.75% fully franked, Mr Market is now factoring in a reduction in expected future dividends.


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## bloomy88 (18 February 2010)

drsmith said:


> At a yield of 8.75% fully franked, Mr Market is now factoring in a reduction in expected future dividends.




But then again, Mr Buffet doesn't think much of the manic depressive Mr Market...
Still, it looks like TLS will get hammered in the short term as a result of their poor results and the stalled NBN deal


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## Taltan (2 March 2010)

And so today TLS have sent a letter to shareholders outlining their objection to the NBN legislation. As per my previous posts I suspect this letter is not to shareholders - its to voters. The board's rightfully trying to fight back & next could be a letter advising voters of their reduced dividend around election time. 

Its politics from here on in and the market at under $3.20 still favours Conroy to be victorious.


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## Mofra (2 March 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> If the PSTN is 30% of their biz and its falling at a rapid rate, in fact falling at an accelerated rate, and their other juicy biz is under pressure from competitors. How long is that 8% div gonna last. There's a fair amount of unknown risk in that div I reckon.



True - also worth mentioning that much of the growth in their other "juicy biz" will be limited by mobile bandwidth - the bandwidth with a competitor's holding that will now be combined into the largest single holding due to the merger of Hutch & Vodaphone. The upside is limited and the risk is big - growing competitors, outdated business and the dreaded legislation risk from a government that still remembers the combatant Sol years. 

*Insert whiny gen Y voice here* "Copper network is sooo last century"


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## Trembling Hand (2 March 2010)

Taltan said:


> And so today TLS have sent a letter to shareholders outlining their objection to the NBN legislation. As per my previous posts I suspect this letter is not to shareholders - its to voters. The board's rightfully trying to fight back & next could be a letter advising voters of their reduced dividend around election time.
> 
> Its politics from here on in and the market at under $3.20 still favours Conroy to be victorious.




And so they should. 



> NBN Co Exposure Draft Legislation
> On 24 February, the Government also released draft legislation that would govern how NBN Co is operated
> and regulated. Although this is only draft legislation, it raises for the first time the prospect of NBN Co becoming
> a *Government-funded retailer,* not just a wholesale network provider. Such an outcome would run counter to the core purpose of the NBN and the Government’s primary policy objective of restructuring the industry to have separate providers for retail and wholesale fixed network services. We are very concerned about this potential change in the Government’s position. If enacted, we would need to factor this into the



http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/docs/tls724-shareholder-letter.pdf

It beggars belief that they, Conroy, are now trying to add the "option" to also retail. Its just truly stunning. Isn't it??


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## UMike (2 March 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> And so they should.
> 
> 
> http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/docs/tls724-shareholder-letter.pdf
> ...




Nothing this government does atm stuns me. 
Really hope they get voted out at the next election or at least get a masive wake up call.


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## McCoy Pauley (2 March 2010)

The letter gives nothing of comfort to current investors and it's little wonder that TLS has hit a new all-time low today.


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## Frank D (2 March 2010)

*TLS*

Looking at TLS there is a potential move towards the lower levels
 @ 2.47-$2.58.

If it gets that low I'd be happy to BUY it.

If it doesn't get that low i'll use a swing pattern in April as support.


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## sptrawler (3 March 2010)

If NBN Co has all the backbone infrastucture and can also be a retailer and the government funds it all with taxpayers money. If it sells out in 5 years who would buy it when it is just a repeat of Telstra. 10 years down the track the government could do the same again. Sell the publics asset to the public and then shaft them, talk about history repeating,what a scam.


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## jake (8 March 2010)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Shares May Rise*

Last Thursday in the Australian Financial Review it was reported that Telstra (TLS) would soon do an International Road Show.

Surely the roadshow would lead to a rise in the share price.

Also with the NBN letter to shareholder having gone out and leading to panic selling the shares may have already bottomed.

The Labor Party would probably like to have the NBN matter resolved in the next six months prior to the next federal election sometime this year.At that time if the NBN matters are resolved Telstra shares may rise considerably.

Always seek the advice of a sharebroker before buying these or any other shares. I may be right or wrong.


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## McCoy Pauley (8 March 2010)

I hear what you're saying, Jake, but as a long-term holder of TLS, I still feel that there's more downside on the SP before it turns the corner.

Conroy and the Commonwealth Government are clearly intent on belting TLS around the head with the NBN Co, and there's no doubt that the inclusion of a possible retail side to NBN Co in the draft legislation was intended to send a strong message to TLS management.

In my view (and everyone should do their own research), there's no compelling reason to buy TLS.  I'm continuing to hold because I don't feel like selling into such a weak market, but I think the SP could sink further over the next few months.


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## SuperGlue (8 March 2010)

Any possibility of Telstra being a takeover target by a foreign Telco??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????


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## oldblue (9 March 2010)

SuperGlue said:


> Any possibility of Telstra being a takeover target by a foreign Telco??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????




Nothing's impossible but why would anyone else want to step into Telstra's shoes and take on the Commonwealth Government? 

Especially a foreign telco?

Telstra's battles are similar to those experienced by British Telecom and Telecom NZ. In both cases, the telcos have come off second best and have had to adapt to govt policy and regulation. And no-one else has wanted to buy into those particular fights.


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## Mofra (9 March 2010)

SuperGlue said:


> Any possibility of Telstra being a takeover target by a foreign Telco??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????



Some of the big foreign telcos already have a presence here, and they would not want to buy into the shrinking market of copper infrastructure and the associated regulatory dramas that Telstra face. 

A major telco wanting to establish a presence here would focus on higher margin product offerings and leech off whichever carrier would sell them bandwidth/exchange space.


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## McCoy Pauley (10 March 2010)

The Liberals have flagged that they will vote against the bill to break up Telstra in the Senate and Sen. Fielding has indicated that he will also vote against the bill.

There's a possibility of at least one National Senator crossing the floor, as the Nationals apparently believe that the break-up of TLS will lead to improved services in regional and rural areas.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...plan-hits-a-wall/story-e6frg9hx-1225838885252


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## sptrawler (12 March 2010)

At least Nick Minchin is calling it as it is, blackmail by the government to re-nationalise Telstra as the NBN for minimal cost. The joke with it all is then they are going to re-float it again in 4 to 5 years. If the Government want open competition in the Telecommunication industry why don't they build their own infrastructure and then float it in competition with Telstra. This would also force Telstra to update their infrastructure. Lets hope common sense prevails and Conroy stops head butting. Then us share holders may get some peace, that would be nice.


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## McCoy Pauley (12 March 2010)

Yeah, if you can get a hold of hansard for the Senate debates yesterday on the bill, it makes for some interesting reading as a holder of TLS.

It's interesting to note that since the Opposition and Sen. Fielding publicly said they would oppose the passage of the bill, the TLS sp has rebounded a few percent and reached as high as $3.10 this morning (but is now about $3.07-$3.08/share).


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## ers_6 (12 March 2010)

shouldve bought in around the 2.50 mark. 
win some you lose some i guess...

anyone see a downturn around the corner considering the speculation at present?


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## sammy84 (16 March 2010)

TLS $1b debt issue:

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ls-1b-euro-of-10year-bonds-20100316-qarp.html

Apparently used to rollover old debt facilities, nevertheless I can't help but think this is a test of the waters.

Could be building a war chest which would be used to start their own independent NBN. If this was to happen, logically a reduction in dividends would follow as well.

All pure speculation

Dis: I don't hold, but would like to see TLS turn around for all those suffering holders out there.


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## trainspotter (25 March 2010)

I am going to go "disgruntled postal worker" on Telstra and stop shooting when I run out of bullets. I have NEVER had service as bad as what I have just received from TELSTRA !!!! I moved from one premise to another and asked Telstra to changeover the phone lines. Very straight forward you would think?? Instead they have changed my account from a Home Budgetline to a Business line and have sent the bills to the premises (which is a storage shed and the phoneline is for an alarm system only) which has NO letterbox as it is a commercial storage shed (Did I mention this before?) Therefore they have now cut off my phone and sent me off to CRAA to really p*ss me off .......... *hand me my shotgun* Never mind that I have 3 mobiles and 7 other landlines with this same company ...... at no stage did they try and call me or text me to advise the accounts had not been paid? Nevermind that I have been with Telstra since 1991 and my mobile bill is regulary $500 per month. Don't even consider the fact that every other bill I have had with them has always been paid on time etc. *reload* 

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR @ TELSTRA !!!!!!!!!!!! SREKNAW & SDRATSAB


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## drsmith (25 March 2010)

trainspotter said:


> *reload*



Sometimes mistakes get made. When you have holstered the gun, contact Telstra to get the issue resolved. 

Their response will be a truer measure of their customer service.


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## trainspotter (25 March 2010)

*Thanks drsmith* ...... I have been on the phone to Telstra since 9.43am this morning. I was transferred to Adelaide, Brisbane and the Phillipines and finally I think Pakistan (I could not understand a word he was saying). All to no avail. Put on hold then transferred to another department until finally they cut me off. I then went to the Telstra Shop to try and resolve the issue. This took a further 1 hour and 20 minutes of my life that I will never get back. The Telstra Shop were fantastic !!! (feel the sarcasm) and gave me another number to call (Credit management apparently)  I have since checked my watch and it is now 1.54pm WST. Guess what ! I am on hold to Telstra AGAIN !!!!!! Credit management put me through to connections but they wont reconnect in the correct name until the bill is paid. SO WHY AM I PAYING FOR A BILL that I did not want in the first place. ??????? *reload*


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## trainspotter (25 March 2010)

Still on hold ........ *pull* ...... Now been put through to billing ....... *reload* ......... not their fault ......... *pull*


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## skyQuake (25 March 2010)

trainspotter said:


> Still on hold ........ *pull* ...... Now been put through to billing ....... *reload* ......... not their fault ......... *pull*




I wonder how many people have shorted telstra out of pure hate. (or the basis that service this crap will come bite them later)
And made money from it. Oodles of money apparently, looking at the say the 10 year charts:


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## trainspotter (25 March 2010)

skyQuake said:


> I wonder how many people have shorted telstra out of pure hate. (or the basis that service this crap will come bite them later)
> And made money from it. Oodles of money apparently, looking at the say the 10 year charts:




Ummmmmmmmm ........ that will be me directly ! I am going to resort to carrier pigeon and beating of drums as my main line of communications in future as it has to better than TELSTRA ! Smoke signals, morse code, french horns ........ anything has got to be better than this !!!!!


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## awg (25 March 2010)

trainspotter said:


> *Thanks drsmith* ...... I have been on the phone to Telstra since 9.43am this morning. I was transferred to Adelaide, Brisbane and the Phillipines and finally I think Pakistan (I could not understand a word he was saying). All to no avail. Put on hold then transferred to another department until finally they cut me off. I then went to the Telstra Shop to try and resolve the issue. This took a further 1 hour and 20 minutes of my life that I will never get back. The Telstra Shop were fantastic !!! (feel the sarcasm) and gave me another number to call (Credit management apparently)  I have since checked my watch and it is now 1.54pm WST. Guess what ! I am on hold to Telstra AGAIN !!!!!! Credit management put me through to connections but they wont reconnect in the correct name until the bill is paid. SO WHY AM I PAYING FOR A BILL that I did not want in the first place. ??????? *reload*




lol..and your time is probably worth $100+ per hour.

I have just thought of a new business idea.

Establish a service company were low paid lackeys wait on hold for Telstra ( or Optus):

Notice if you ever phone Sales, you are put thru immediately to a well trained English-is-my-first language operator here in sunny oz.

All "after sales" enquiries are dealt with by a long wait, then a lottery dip to see if the operator 1) knows what they are talking about,2) has sufficient command of English to understand your issue.

I have just been dragged kicking and screaming to Telstra, cause I am on a tiny sub-exchange and nobody can be bothered installing updated equipment in it..so much for the NB F'N N.

Did you end up screaming filth into the reciever, when for the umpteenth time the voice recognition said " sorry I did not understand your selection"  

I especially enjoy having the call terminated after a long fruitless wait in the queue

We have bad phone lines at my wifes business. An ex-Telstra employee mate has done extensive tests and the problem is in the Telstra cabling, but they are not interested because it is "within specs" (just)


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## trainspotter (25 March 2010)

I actually asked the automated recording "Put me through to a human that understands english" .. the response was "All of our operators are busy, you have been placed in a queue and your call will be attended to as soon as possible" followed by a large *CLICK* then a beep beep beep at the end of the phone .......... Aaahhhhhhhhhh TELSTRA !

On a brighter note I actually got through to a lady called AMY in NSW and she fixed the whole ctatsrophe for me in less than 10 minutes, stayed online whilst I was shoved from department to department getting sorted (credit management and reconnection) and actually credited back the incorrect amount that I was billed for. I asked for her direct number. She was not allowed to give it to me !!!!! PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTTTT !

As for the business idea to pay low paid lackies to listen whilst on hold is pure genius ! I like it !


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## drsmith (25 March 2010)

trainspotter said:


> On a brighter note I actually got through to a lady called AMY in NSW and she fixed the whole ctatsrophe for me in less than 10 minutes, stayed online whilst I was shoved from department to department getting sorted (credit management and reconnection) and actually credited back the incorrect amount that I was billed for.



How did you manage that after all the drama earlier ?

Was it as a consequence of your earlier requests for assistance or did you start afresh ?


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## sptrawler (27 March 2010)

trainspotter join Optus. 3, Vodaphone, Virgin or Dodo and give us feedback on customer service. I look forward to the comments.


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## BrightGreenGlow (30 March 2010)

Telstra really arn't that bad.  I say they own the infrastructure so they can charge the 3rd Party Operators as much as they want. Feels like FMG in WA with the whole train line thing.


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## knightofsx33 (7 April 2010)

right now telstra is trading at a very cheap price. It is also a very strong company with a strong stance in its sector. There is always going to be minor faults with its service but it is only minimal and so we shouldnt focus on those small bad things. The big picture is that its a great company and its very cheap. Im buying right now and with just a 15 times earnings which is normal for this sort of blue chips the price target is at $6


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## oldblue (7 April 2010)

The market, on the other hand is wary about what effect increasing govt regulation might have on TLS. Every right to be concerned, IMO, considering recent past and similar heavy handed interference of telcos in Britain and NZ, just to mention a couple.


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## Trembling Hand (7 April 2010)

Yep oldblue and there is lots to add to that. 

Clearly the break up looks bad for Telstra but I reckon there is more to it. Have a look at the price since new management came in. DOWN. Because its basically the same management. Same old people doing the same old crap.

 The recent management "shake up" by Thodey did nothing to bring in new people to give a very tired old company a lift. All it did was set up structures to ease any break up. Hardly forward thinking in terms of profits.

Its not a turn around story.


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## malachii (7 April 2010)

When you take a good look at this company the only suprising thing is that it is still above $3.  Lousy management, history of terrible results, no sign of doing anything different, I've not met anyone that is a happy cusomer and a government that is hell bent on destroying it.  Even the dividend is starting to look a bit iffy.  Why would you buy it? 

malachii


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## knightofsx33 (8 April 2010)

the management has done their job in my opinion the earnings has being steady and growing, what are u on about that its crap? the price is very low right now and if they get through this small rock in the way the future looks very bright.

knight


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## Trembling Hand (8 April 2010)

knightofsx33 said:


> the management has done their job in my opinion



The previous one created enemies with everyone. All they left behind was a supper wireless network that will/could be of value.

The current one has done nothing except say they are going to focus on customer service which back fired spectacularly as everyone knows their service is a disgrace and a mess. End result was that they have done nothing about it except realise that if they talk about it their customers just complain more. So now Thodey doesn't mention it. As far as management its the same old same old. Thodey had a chance to shake it up when he came in but his left the same people there to not fix the same old problems.



knightofsx33 said:


> the earnings has being steady and growing,



 BS. Their meaty PTSN is accelerating downwards. Their Mobile voice is under pressure from optus etc. There wireless data is losing its premium price faster than they can add extra traffic. They will probably loss Foxtel. And there wholesale section. 

Just what bits have been "steady and growing"?

"small rock" "very bright"  Too funny!!


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## malachii (8 April 2010)

knightofsx33 said:


> the management has done their job in my opinion the earnings has being steady and growing, what are u on about that its crap? the price is very low right now and if they get through this small rock in the way the future looks very bright.
> 
> knight




I love it - I have a cheap bridge to sell you in Sydney!!!!

At the start of 2000 the share price of TLS was over $9.00.  It has been on a steady decline over the last 10 years and is now $3.00.  Shareholders have lost 67% of their capital in 10 years.  On what planet or in what way does this show that managment is doing it's job???????  

This small rock is about the same size as the small iceberg that took out the Titanic.  They were probably saying the same as TLS - "If only we can get through this small iceberg in the way the future looks bright".

I'm sorry for being sarcastic but you touched a raw spot.  No - I havent lost money in TLS - it is not a company I would buy.  However it gets my goat when people (including professionals!) that should know better - come out with comments that are just complete rubbish and "hope" that others will react accordingly.  

Before you jump down my throat - lets look at your statements:

"right now telstra is trading at a very cheap price. "  Define cheap - with the current loss of market share, customer dissatisfaction and ageing technology the price may not be cheap.  And has been proven many times - just because something is cheap doesn't mean it wont get cheaper.

"It is also a very strong company with a strong stance in its sector."   It is a strong company - but so was Bear Sterns, HIH and many others that people will be able to list off around the world.  The question you need to ask is - is it a company that is using it's strength to grow it's market or just abuse it's market.  I think if you look at it's past record - you wouldn't be able to say that it was growing it's market share.

"There is always going to be minor faults with its service but it is only minimal and so we shouldnt focus on those small bad things."  I'm sorry - but this statement takes the cake.  I cannot think of anyone who can say this company has minor faults with it's service.  Just listen to call back radio/read a paper/look on the internet and that will give you a bit of a picture of what is happening.  Or better still - try and phone up and sort out a problem with them.  If this doesn't put your blood pressure up into the danger area - I'd say you're already dead!

"The big picture is that its a great company"(on what measure - give me one - just one!) "and its very cheap."(again - huh??) Im buying right now"(good on you - a person with conviction and prepared to put his/her money where their mouth is) "and with just a 15 times earnings which is normal for this sort of blue chips the price target is at $6"  Show me any professional in the world that has a target price of $6 for TLS. 

Apologies in advance for any anger issues I have just caused.

malachii

PS -I HOLD *NO* SHARES IN THIS COMPANY.  MAYBE THIS GIVES ME A NEGATIVE BIASED OPINION.  YOU'LL HAVE TO DECIDE FOR YOURSELF. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.


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## wecanallinvest (8 April 2010)

I agree with malachii that $6 is a bit rich for TLS to go to, however I also agree with knightofsx33 that it is a buy right now for the following reasons:

- P/E of less than 10
- Dividends at around 9-10%
- Predictable, steady earnings
- Very low downside risk at current price compared to rest of the market

A lot of other stocks on the market are starting to look fully priced righ now, so I can only assume that investors will turn their eyes on to TLS in the near future because of the undeniable value to be had.


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## oldblue (8 April 2010)

It's stark disagreements on stocks such as above that makes a market!

For my part, I wouldn't touch TLS for the reasons already articulated. If I *was* buying, I'd be waiting until the SP showed a bit of strength. As Charlie Munger has said "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent " or words to that effect.


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## Taltan (8 April 2010)

A p/e of under 10 for such a defensive stock is very attractive. You cannot compare a telco with a Bear Stearns or HIH.

Malachii a lot of your arguments may be correct but there are historical. Its the next 10 years we are concerned about and the current mnmngt team were not around in 2000. 

I expect telecommunications to be an ongoing profitable sector whilst even regarding the NBN there is at least a $8b sale price on the table already. This is apart from the fact that only TLS currently has the ability to build the NBN.  There are regulatory risks but if they weren't there the p/e under 10 would not exist.

What I do agree with is Do Your own Research.


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## malachii (8 April 2010)

Taltan,

The comparison was not between a telco but rather a company that is considered "strong".

As for TLS being considered "defensive" - I struggle with any company that has lost 67% of shareholders' value being called "defensive".  

I would agree the things I have used to back up my opinions are historical - but all factual company analysis is based on history - your opening comment is value based on P/E ratio - a pure historical fact.  We dont know the future.  We can make best guess but usually this is based on the past, and the past shows this company sux.

Could you also expand on the comment about about the current managment team.  Most of them were around in 2000 in senior managment roles.  Stanhope has been there since 1967 and as CFO since 2003 even Thodey started in 2001/2002.  Surely you cant argue that they are now going to "change" the company completely.  They sure haven't made any remarkable changes yet.  I'll admit they are taking a more concilitary role with the government - but this doesn't seem to have made any difference yet to either the NBN or their customer service generally.

TLS has as near to a monopoly as you can get.  This (and as far as I can tell - only this) is it's one redeeming feature.  And even this seems to be slipping through it's fingers.

If this stock can get back to $9 in the next decade - I'll be astounded (but there again - I have been wrong many times before!).  Even if it does though - it will only be back to where it was in 2000.  That is not a great return on investment.  If the biggest shareholder (government through the future fund) thought it was a good buy - do you really think they would be offloading large chunks?

malachii


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## Taltan (8 April 2010)

Dont get me wrong $6 is a long strech and $9 is fanciful. But you have to weigh it up for the price you can get it - approx $3. My only argument is that due to its monopoly, large voter base and being in a defensive industry (the industry is defensive not the particular stock) it can't go to $0 either. In fact if it stays at $3 and maintains 9.3% fully franked dividends your doing well.

Historically there have been a lot of mistakes most notably bringing in an American to act out what is essentially a political role, basically akin to appointing a foreigner to run for PM. Thodey is more aware of our tall poppy syndromes and is taking a smarter approach.

Of course only time will tell


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## vincent191 (8 April 2010)

Taltan said:


> In fact if it stays at $3 and maintains 9.3% fully franked dividends your doing well.




Telstra is a GREAT investment. It is the only Company in the world that can maintain a very high dividend whilst profits and cash are going south.


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## snowking (13 April 2010)

Was this the news that gave Telstra's sp a bit of a spark today 



> Australia's proposed A$43 billion national high-speed broadband network could be built cheaper and faster with the involvement of Telstra Corp. (TLS.AU), Australian Communications Minister Stephen Conroy said Monday.





http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100412-702937.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesAsia


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## snabbu (13 April 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> The previous one created enemies with everyone. All they left behind was a supper wireless network that will/could be of value.
> 
> The current one has done nothing except say they are going to focus on customer service which back fired spectacularly as everyone knows their service is a disgrace and a mess. End result was that they have done nothing about it except realise that if they talk about it their customers just complain more. So now Thodey doesn't mention it. As far as management its the same old same old. Thodey had a chance to shake it up when he came in but his left the same people there to not fix the same old problems.
> 
> ...




I would make a couple of comments
1: Fiscal matters
(a) Bond issue oversubscribed I think 6 times 1.5 B euro 20 years at 4.25%
About half the going rate for Greece.  

(b) We are in the box seat we can use our copper until it becomes uneconomical, then and only then we can become the NBN's customer.  We don't need to do this all at once we can do it area by area.

2 Political matters
What is it about share analysts that makes them ignore the political aspects of the TLS price. Whether you like it or not if you have super you own TLS
I think there are also 1.5 million Ma and pa Telstra investors, I think they all probably vote. Have you heard of vote buying?

The NBN has to give the board something to put to me, that I might accept, I am currently so pissed of with the labor party that there is a premium on my acquiescence. perhaps just perhaps we may say " give us something that doubles the share price or go **** yourself Kevin" Who knows what we may say. But this has little to do with value.  A bloke that will spend 900K on  a shade house will surely give me $6 or $7 for my tls. Ok Maybe $4.50 would be sweet. For get the value feel the politics. 





Cheers

Gary the Good


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## drsmith (13 April 2010)

While this government likes to splash the cash I can't see it offering $4.50. 

If it was to offer $3.60 it could gloat an 11% pre tax return through the dividends for investors who participated in T3. Not bad when comparing to how investment markets have fared over the same period.

In any case I suspect most Ma and Pa direct shareholders would be Coalition supporters regardless of the fate of Telstra.


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## snabbu (14 April 2010)

drsmith said:


> While this government likes to splash the cash I can't see it offering $4.50.
> 
> If it was to offer $3.60 it could gloat an 11% pre tax return through the dividends for investors who participated in T3. Not bad when comparing to how investment markets have fared over the same period.
> 
> In any case I suspect most Ma and Pa direct shareholders would be Coalition supporters regardless of the fate of Telstra.




I suspect you are correct in regards to politics however you have to understand that Krud like all politicians is delusional.  

I'd be happy with anything over $3.20 as I was dividend stripping, the price just dropped a bit more than I expected, although I think we are only at about 45 days plus 2 and the price has almost recovered to pre dividend levels, so 6.25% after tax in under 60 days is not to be sneezed at. 

Today will be interesting

Cheers

Gary


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## drsmith (15 April 2010)

snabbu said:


> I suspect you are correct in regards to politics however you have to understand that Krud like all politicians is delusional.



Politicians are not delusional, they just concentrate a little too much on their short term political well being.

If the government purchased Telstra back at $3.60 per share it would cost about as much as the BB network. They could then use it'as cashflow/sell off parts of the business over time to roll out the BB network.

Sounds good in principal but I suspect in practice it would be political suicide. The opposition would (should ?) have a field day if the government did that. It would be low on the government's list of options.


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## sptrawler (18 April 2010)

Maybe I am missing something, but can some one explain to me how Telstras maket capitalisation is less than Singtel's(Optus). When Telstra owns the infrastructure, makes a massive amount more profit than Singtel(Optus) and pays a much bigger dividend. Maybe people are over reacting and the sum of Telstras parts are worth more than people are factoring in. If Telstra sells it's infrastucture and gives a return of capital to share holders of say $1-2. Then it becomes a carrier the same as Optus but with a much broader wireless network and also has its national service obligation lifted and the punitive regulation that stops it offering equivalent products as other carriers cancelled out. It would be a much stronger carrier than Optus and one would think it's share price would reflect that. One can only hope or maybe I am missing something.


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## ChilliBlue (18 April 2010)

Let us not forget that TLS also owns a substantial chunk of Foxtel which other players are desperate to get their hands on.


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## malachii (19 April 2010)

Singtel own much more than just Optus so the comparison is unfair.   They are a massive international telecommunications company and Optus is only a small chunk.  You cant take the whole value of Singtel and value Optus at that amount and compare it to the whole of TLS.  

malachii


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## shinobi346 (19 April 2010)

I have to agree there. Here in Australia telstra is massive, but overseas, singtel, virgin group, vodaphone and three are massive corporations.


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## sptrawler (21 April 2010)

So therefore Malachi and shinobi346 why is the Government try to stuff the little aussie battler instead of making these massive multinationals put some money up to put in infrastructure. No instead they will use taxpayers money and then the multinationals can use that. What a winner.


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## oldblue (22 April 2010)

Intervention/regulation by the govt isn't just an Australian phenomenon. A very similar thing has happened in other countries, Britain and NZ included, as governments try to encourage more competition in telecoms.

As for competing against giants, it just so happens that they are the ones who happen to be interested. For example, in NZ, Telecom is up against the likes of Vodafone and Telstra, both many times NZ Telecom's size.

I don't invest in telecom companies. Too much govt interference.


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## malachii (22 April 2010)

Sorry sptrawler - are you saying that TLS is a good investment, pays great dividends, makes massive profits and is a bargain or that it is stuffed?  You cant have it both ways.

malachii


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## BrightGreenGlow (23 April 2010)

I see the price lately has been hovering around 3.15 - 3.20 so this is decent and whoever bought them at 2.9 would have to be very happy at the moment. With the election creeping up surely a deal with be made and a favourable one at that for Telstra.

PS: Does Krudd realise Telstra is an Australian company yet Optus, Voda, 3 and Virgin are not? Does this not mean anything or is he yet again on his knees ready to accept with his mouth wide open? ....


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## oldblue (24 April 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I see the price lately has been hovering around 3.15 - 3.20 so this is decent and whoever bought them at 2.9 would have to be very happy at the moment. With the election creeping up surely a deal with be made and a favourable one at that for Telstra.
> 
> PS: Does Krudd realise Telstra is an Australian company yet Optus, Voda, 3 and Virgin are not? Does this not mean anything or is he yet again on his knees ready to accept with his mouth wide open? ....




We need to remember that there are more voters than there are TLS shareholders.

Govts throughout the world have courted favour by appearing to deliver better telco services to their electorates by encouraging competition, usually at the expense of the dominant incumbent. eg BT in Britain, Telecom in NZ, TLS in Australia.


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## Mofra (24 April 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> PS: Does Krudd realise Telstra is an Australian company yet Optus, Voda, 3 and Virgin are not? Does this not mean anything or is he yet again on his knees ready to accept with his mouth wide open? ....



Virgin is just a CSP though - all traffic flows through the troika of major carriers through interconnect agreements so isn't a huge player in the local telco industry.

Given Sol's fractuous relationship with the Government, it's no surprise the government is going to look at ways to reduce Telstra's dominance of the marketplace (approx 2/3 of the market according to the ACMA's eligible telco revenue figures). Thodey has more than a few bridges to mend in Canberra, and in an election year one has to question how much time he has to do it.


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## sptrawler (28 April 2010)

Actually malachi what i am inferring is the Government is playing with fire. They will have to either give Telstra a fair and equitable price for its infrastructure or the shareholders won't accept it. Then the Government has a real problem, build its own infrastructure which it can't afford to do or scrap the NBN which it should do but is politically another back flip. If it decides to build it,who is going to jump onto a fibre fixed line when it will cost more and when people are leaving fixed line connections in droves. If the take up is low how will it be funded? Maybe the Government will treat it like sewage and water and force owners to pay for it when it goes past the house, political suicide. So malachi it is just a punt on who will blink first. One thing for sure is Telstra owns it and is making money from it, the Liberals if they get in will reduce spending and Telstra should be off the radar. If Labor keep going the way they are, another potential $43billion stuff up will see them out in the wilderness for another 20years.
 It is a dead set loser for Rudd and I think that makes Tls a potentially good buy at around $3. But as with all shares it is just a punt on outcomes. I have taken the plunge on Tls again hope I don't get burnt again.


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## boofhead (28 April 2010)

sptrawler: Any references to say using FTTH will be more expensive for the consumer? So far it is mostly only opinions.

Reason why I ask is Internode's heavy plans for fibre are cheaper than resold TW plans. So as a consumer it would be cheaper for me to ditch copper and switch to fibre. I'm not sure about plans for phone calls using typical phone devices though. Internode may not be the best example as they often have a premium but their site does list FTTH and ADSL plans. You could probably do the same exercise with iiNet.


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## sptrawler (28 April 2010)

boofhead, I don't have any references but I am making an assumption that there will be some kind of cost associated with a multiplexing device required at the home and also some form of labor and materials cost to pull out the copper and pull in the fibre. Also one would assume for a $43 billion outlay there would be some form return on capital required, maybe the taxpayer will wear it. But from information available on the net, places that have the superfast broadband have not seen a corresponding superfast take up of the services. At the end of the day it will depend on the cost, most people just browse and that speed is governed by the site you are viewing.


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## boofhead (29 April 2010)

Copper is Telstra's asset. It is up to Telstra how it manages it. That is not an expense for FTTH.

Some FTTH deployments are exclusive to some fibre wholesalers which limits ISP choice. Also not many ISPs in the FTTH resale game. The Tasmanian stage 1 is in areas of lower population and generally lower socio-economic regions where there is a lower proportion of broadband users in general too.

Multiplexing etc. shouldn't be too bad as the depoyment is based off already deployed technologies and uses a lot of passive devices.


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## Boggo (29 April 2010)

From a charting viewpoint TLS looks like a good short at the moment.
Overall it does seem to be the direction of the trend.

(click to expand)


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## drsmith (9 May 2010)

Watching Stephen Conroy on ABC's Inside Business, one gets the impression  he would like to grind Telstra into the dirt and would have no hesitation at using any amount of taxpayer's money and/or Legislative power to achieve that (either personally and/or as part of a broader ALP socialist agenda).

Political reality however suggests they need a successful negotiation with Telstra as they have failed in so many other policy areas but with this government you never know.


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## Sainter (9 May 2010)

I know I resent the government choosing to spend MY money on a very risky proposition that only pays a 7% return assuming all the positive assumptions come to fruition. In some cases, that is what is needed from a government, but when they are replicating a portion of what is already available or do-able by a listed company, and kneecap that company at the same time-absolute thuggery. And when you look at their record of achievement with 'big ticket' items (insulation/schools) I wouldn't trust them to do a competent job. The sooner the next election is held the better. I only hope the swinging voters appraise what has happened over the last 3 years and vote accordingly.

I hold TLS, and a few miners/energy companies for that matter, too. And I vote.


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## Julia (9 May 2010)

Sainter said:


> I know I resent the government choosing to spend MY money on a very risky proposition that only pays a 7% return assuming all the positive assumptions come to fruition.



Me too.  But, as drsmith says above, this battle has become personal for Conroy now (as has the internet filter), and doesn't give a damn if he wastes taxpayer funds as long as he gets to kick TLS in the head.


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## McCoy Pauley (9 May 2010)

Looks like Alan Kohler shares the sentiments of a few posters.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...goose-is-cooked-pd20100507-57S9U?OpenDocument


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## sptrawler (10 May 2010)

As I stated in an earlier post the Government is between a rock and a hard place. This is even more highlighted when you read in the Australian that they are contemplating legislation to stop Telstra competing with them, legislation to stop Telstra getting access to 4 G wireless, legislation to make them sell Foxtel. It certainly doesn't sound as though they think they can do it without Telstra and it knows Telstra can cream them in the market place. The reason little Kev has put Conroy on the case is because he is a bully like Kev the only problem is everybody can see through them. Telstra is pulling offf a blinder and i for one think Conroy is a hiding to nothing. This government is on top of the ski slope Australia isn't ready for communism or a dictatorship yet. COME ON THE NEXT ELECTION BRING IT ON.


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## sptrawler (21 May 2010)

There was another thread how can you make Telstra profitable, I can't find it. However I have the answer at last, go into competition against the N.B.N, all the other carriers will jump on board with the N.B.N because they will supply discounted access at the taxpayers expense. Then Telstra will be allowed to supply a service on a level playing field because it doesn't have a supposed monopoly. Then the Government will screw all the other carriers to pay for the blown out cost of unwanted infrastructure i.e more landlines, that the taxpayer has funded but is now a huge millstone on the Government. Meanwhile Telstra has a company that supplies everything and it is payed for. Like I said before it is a hiding to nothing for the Government. Even now the legislation being proposed must be bordering on restrictive practice and from a Governments point unconstitutional and I am no lawyer. If it keeps trying to push a political ajenda by making laws to disadvantage a publicly listed company(that it floated) it must be leaving itself open to constitutional chalenge.


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## sptrawler (25 May 2010)

This all sounds  good for NBN, I think not.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/aus...hly-access-pitch/story-e6frgakx-1225871171154


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## Boggo (25 May 2010)

Boggo said:


> From a charting viewpoint TLS looks like a good short at the moment.
> Overall it does seem to be the direction of the trend.




Nearly to the target, one more day should do it, and I got stopped out by 1 cent on the 6th.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=551600&postcount=663

You get that 

(click to expand)


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## sptrawler (27 May 2010)

Well that was a good call BOGGO $3.20 down to $2.85 ,approx 12% fall  nearly got it with an all ords fall of 5000 to 4200 approx 18% fall. Maybe Mincor $2.20 down to $1.30 or Panoramic or BHP would have been better calls.
Actually maybe it would be easier to show shares that only fell 12%, there wasn't many in my portfolio.


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## Boggo (28 May 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe Mincor $2.20 down to $1.30 or Panoramic or BHP would have been better calls.




Maybe I am misunderstanding what you are saying above.

Are you saying that you did pick or could have picked and did/could have posted your entry, stop and target for any or all of those three on the day after they peaked and they all went to your assigned target or are you just making a general hindsight comment after the event ?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=551600&postcount=663


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## sptrawler (28 May 2010)

Hi Boggo, It appeared from your post that the fall in the Telstra price was predicted in your previously posted chart. When in actual fact the fall was due to an overall fall in the market. I don't mind people taking  credit where credit is due. It would be really creative charting to predict when Telstra is going to go up instead of down.LOL


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## sptrawler (2 June 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe I am missing something, but can some one explain to me how Telstras maket capitalisation is less than Singtel's(Optus). When Telstra owns the infrastructure, makes a massive amount more profit than Singtel(Optus) and pays a much bigger dividend. Maybe people are over reacting and the sum of Telstras parts are worth more than people are factoring in. If Telstra sells it's infrastucture and gives a return of capital to share holders of say $1-2. Then it becomes a carrier the same as Optus but with a much broader wireless network and also has its national service obligation lifted and the punitive regulation that stops it offering equivalent products as other carriers cancelled out. It would be a much stronger carrier than Optus and one would think it's share price would reflect that. One can only hope or maybe I am missing something.




Well Boggo I am not a chartist, but Telstra seems to be going against the market. If a deal is struck with N.B.N it could mean a decent return of capital and all the punitive, restrictive rules that apply to Telstra being lifted. At last there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. What do you think Julia and Dr Smith?


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## chb (2 June 2010)

Telstra is the scum of the earth as far as i'm concerned 

Yes I hold telstra shares, but not enough for me not to want the government to pummel them to the ground.

*hides from everyone* 

Here's an example. Try to keep an open mind and pretend you don't hold shares and pretend you aren't blessed with decent internet. With decent i'm talking ~$70 a month around 8mb with maybe 30+gb

I'm currently living in an apartment serviceable only by a Telstra DSLAM. ADSL2+ is unnecessarily ridiculously expensive. So i'm on ADSL1 8mb and I pay for a phone line which has no phone connected to it. I know how much cheaper it can be as i've had ADSL2+ before in a different home.

Fast forward 2 months and i'm moving to a new estate.. yes NEW estate(<5 yrs). This estate is plagued by RIMS which are limited in available ports with some residents waiting for YEARS to get ADSL.. not ADSL2.. but ADSL in general. 

Now to connect a phone line just to get an OPTION to apply for internet, I will have to dig a trench from the house to the box on the side of the house which with telstra's contractors is about $280. Then I have to pay a first time connection fee of $299. Then I have to pay a monthly fee of at least $20 just to get an option to apply. But what's the point of having a phone If i can't even get internet? I don't require a physical phone at all.

I'd have no hesitation paying that fee if I'd get a guarantee of an internet port which most suburbs have and you would expect new suburbs to have. But Telstra has gone on the cheap and installed RIMS to save their cost.

It's fked me over and it has fked over plenty of other people too. You may have been lucky but there are other people out there that have been screwed over. 

I still hold the shares because I believe an agreement will be struck.


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## sptrawler (2 June 2010)

I understand your frustration and the Government is tying to pummel them into the ground, therein lies the problem. 
Why would Telstra put in all the conduits and trenches in these new suburbs? What is the upside at the moment. The Government is wanting to buy the infrastructure on the cheap(written down cost base) so why put in more infrastructure. Even if Telstra puts it in for themselves the Government wants to legislate to stop them using it (cherry picking) legislation. So really get on to your local MP and get NBN on the job, maybe yours could be the first suburb(after Tassie). Meanwhile I for one think it is in the shareholders interest, not to be installing equipment for the Government at the shareholders expense. 
On a final note can't wait to see what it costs you with the NBN $43B someone pays one way or another.


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## sptrawler (2 June 2010)

By the way chb I forgot to respond to the other part of your post, the one that mentions the apartment block serviced by Telstra. If the apartment block was easily serviced at a good return on investment one of the other service providers would be supplying a competing service i.e Optus, Iprimus etc. But obviously they don't want to.
This is the funny thing with the N.B.N, they don't want anybody cherry picking the high volume areas, but have been forcing Telstra to allow all the other carriers to cherry pick for years.
Like I have said on numerous occasions Telstra can take on the N.B.N on a level playing field and it will take a lot of draconian legislation to make the N.B.N a viable alternative. With the Governments socialist record this sort of legislation would put us in a real tailspin. Chairman Rudd isn't that stupid, well I don't think he is.


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## chb (2 June 2010)

Hi sptrawler, thanks for your meaningful response.

Here in lies the problem, I would have no beef with telstra and the NBN would not have existed or even have been required if telstra in the first place did things with quality and costed their items at reasonable prices. When you say with the apartment block that other ISPs can install their own equipment that is possibly true(i'm not sure if it is full or just not profit worthy). But what ideally would happen is that since telstra is such a large communications organisation they could have priced competitively but they've chosen not to do this to maintain maximum profits. They're paying for this now via the NBN.

Hopefully an agreement gets sorted out for all parties involved, telstra, the government and the people of Australia.


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## Julia (2 June 2010)

sptrawler said:


> : What do you think Julia and Dr Smith?



Sorry, sptrawler, I haven't been following what's happening with Telstra.
Maybe consider that on the outside chance the Libs win the election, Mr Abbott has said he will not proceed with the NBN project.  Has the government ever actually got round to doing a feasibility study on all the costings, including the take up rate from the public?


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## sptrawler (2 June 2010)

hi Julia,
From what I have read they have taken all their costings and business plan from KPMG. The take up in Tasmanian trail project has been low and the N.B.N has given access to suppliers (ISP's ) at a one of cost of approx $300 no ongoing monthly access charge.
As for KPMG in a report I read today they were reported as saying 3 weeks ago that the resources tax would have zero economic cost and in todays Aust Financial Review KPMG said it would be hard for miners to raise financing because of the tax. The report went on to say that KPMG will basically come up with the outcome you want if you pay the money. Sounds a bit like C.D.O investment ratings.
I am a Telstra shareholder for the #$%%time and this time I can see the monkey coming off Telstras back. Just hope Kev stays in long enough to pick it up and then all Australians can have the monkey instead of Telstra shareholders.


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## sptrawler (2 June 2010)

chb said:


> Hi sptrawler, thanks for your meaningful response.
> 
> Here in lies the problem, I would have no beef with telstra and the NBN would not have existed or even have been required if telstra in the first place did things with quality and costed their items at reasonable prices. When you say with the apartment block that other ISPs can install their own equipment that is possibly true(i'm not sure if it is full or just not profit worthy). But what ideally would happen is that since telstra is such a large communications organisation they could have priced competitively but they've chosen not to do this to maintain maximum profits. They're paying for this now via the NBN.
> 
> Hopefully an agreement gets sorted out for all parties involved, telstra, the government and the people of Australia.



Well cbh If you read back a few posts you would see that I was told Telstra is not such a large Communications orginisation. In actual fact Singtel(optus), Hutchinson(3), Vodaphone, Virgin are all bigger on a global scale, it is just they want to cherry pick and be parasites on your telecom system. Also the Government legislated to stop Telstra offering deals the same as the competition. Haven't you been noticing the loss of market share to Optus. If they were allowed to offer the same or better they would be creaming Optus. There is only one saving grace with the N.B.N. one would think Telstra will then not have to service all the country areas(how many Optus trucks have you seen in the bush) and will also be able to offer the same deals as the opposition. The difference will be Telstra have full national coverage the parasites don,t and won't untill the roll out of the N.B.N* at taxpayers expense*. Yeah lets support the freeloader!!!


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## sptrawler (10 June 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Actually malachi what i am inferring is the Government is playing with fire. They will have to either give Telstra a fair and equitable price for its infrastructure or the shareholders won't accept it. Then the Government has a real problem, build its own infrastructure which it can't afford to do or scrap the NBN which it should do but is politically another back flip. If it decides to build it,who is going to jump onto a fibre fixed line when it will cost more and when people are leaving fixed line connections in droves. If the take up is low how will it be funded? Maybe the Government will treat it like sewage and water and force owners to pay for it when it goes past the house, political suicide. So malachi it is just a punt on who will blink first. One thing for sure is Telstra owns it and is making money from it, the Liberals if they get in will reduce spending and Telstra should be off the radar. If Labor keep going the way they are, another potential $43billion stuff up will see them out in the wilderness for another 20years.
> It is a dead set loser for Rudd and I think that makes Tls a potentially good buy at around $3. But as with all shares it is just a punt on outcomes. I have taken the plunge on Tls again hope I don't get burnt again.




Well a few months on and at last someone is starting to call it as it should be. John Stanhope said in the Australian today that it may be better for Telstra to accept functional seperation. Does that mean Telstra shareholders get a share in the carriers infrastructure and a share in the biggest carrier with the largest footprint and all the restrictive legislation is lifted( YIPPEE). Then the government can either roll out its fibre to the home and compete with all the carriers including Telstra on a level footing. Or replicate Telstras backbone infrastructure around Australia(best of luck) and go into competition against Telstra at the wholesale level. Well lets see how many people want to pick up the fibre connection  Then the tax payer has to start paying for the huge loss on lack of take up. But not to worry business and government got their high speed connections at taxpayers expense. *Like i said, I think applying logics, Telstra are a bargain around $3 However when talking about this government logics can go out the window.*


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## boofhead (20 June 2010)

The federal government has done a deal with Telstra giving NBNCo access to infrastructure. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/20/2931852.htm has 9 billion for pit/duct access. Is that good or bad for Telstra? It is money but signs away a part of their earnings.


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## Trembling Hand (20 June 2010)

boofhead said:


> The federal government has done a deal with Telstra giving NBNCo access to infrastructure. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/20/2931852.htm has 9 billion for pit/duct access. Is that good or bad for Telstra? It is money but signs away a part of their earnings.




The removal of the USO into a new company is a huge plus for Telstra. It cost them many many many millions per year. That alone from my understanding is a goodie. The price I think is pretty good also considering the decline in revenue from the fixed line.

Would think the plan being out would also be a short term plus.


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## sptrawler (20 June 2010)

Sounds good, even though it is early days and the finer details still to come out. Could be a great return of capital and dividends shouldn't be affected  for some time. Like Trembling Hand said the service obligation monkey will be off Telstras back and the draconian legislation not allowing Telstra to compete with the other carriers should be lifted. Also from the sounds of the press release, compensation for structural seperation would indicate Telstra keeps its wholesale division for now.  . Well Boggo it might have been your lucky day when you were stopped out by 1 cent, time will tell, my guess is they will fly on Monday.


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## sptrawler (20 June 2010)

By the way great pick up on the news bulletin Boofhead. Talk about hot off the press WELL DONE.


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## ROE (20 June 2010)

I like it  I bag out Telstra a bit but a couple weeks ago I sit down and work out fundamentals rather than emotion and I cant see a scenario where TLS share can goes much lower than $2.90 regardless of any out come
so I load it up at $2.92 

Upside is just too good for any down side...

Tomorrow will be a good day...


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## ROE (20 June 2010)

boofhead said:


> The federal government has done a deal with Telstra giving NBNCo access to infrastructure. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/20/2931852.htm has 9 billion for pit/duct access. Is that good or bad for Telstra? It is money but signs away a part of their earnings.




any outcome is good for TLS  market like certainty 
this is a good deal for Tesltra, I will read the fine prints when it available and see
but doesnt look too bad so far with that announcement ...


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## Trembling Hand (20 June 2010)

So it has to be asked whats the story if the libs win the election?? they have already said they will stop the NBN. Then what of this. I would say it would be long Rudd then you would be long TLS as well. Long Libs short tls??


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## lemontree (20 June 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> So it has to be asked whats the story if the libs win the election?? they have already said they will stop the NBN. Then what of this. I would say it would be long Rudd then you would be long TLS as well. Long Libs short tls??




It'd be quite a conflict in interest for those who hold shares in the big cap miners and telstra haha.


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## ROE (20 June 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> So it has to be asked whats the story if the libs win the election?? they have already said they will stop the NBN. Then what of this. I would say it would be long Rudd then you would be long TLS as well. Long Libs short tls??




Liberal wins and they throw out NBN ...TLS goes back to the old way and use its monopoly power to milk more money and every now and then ACCC write them angry letter and said stop it


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## Trembling Hand (20 June 2010)

lemontree said:


> It'd be quite a conflict in interest for those who hold shares in the big cap miners and telstra haha.




Yes I have no doubt at all that this is why we have this announcement. Rudd and his merry fools desperately need something to go their way. What better way to scour a win for the next 2 weeks than spending 11 billion of tax payers money to sure up your image 

I'm sure TLS have got a better deal out of this because of the heat Krudd is taking due to the Super stupid mining tax.


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## sptrawler (20 June 2010)

If the Libs win one would think they will still roll out the N.B.N to business, government and new developments (which makes sense). They may decide to be selective about replacing existing residential, unless there is serious demand. Which is the way it should have been done anyway.
Rudd just has to get a WIN at the moment and he was a hiding to nothing with the CHAIRMAN KEV and hit man Conroy approach. The way the mining tax was floated and the Telstra shafting was being percieved, it was starting to add up to pure arrogance. Aussies hate nothing more than arrogant $#!!!ts telling them this is how it is so suck it up. OH and by the way it is your jobs and your money, I forgot.


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## Boggo (20 June 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Well Boggo it might have been your lucky day when you were stopped out by 1 cent, time will tell, my guess is they will fly on Monday.




Actually no, I would have been stopped out on the 2/06 at $3.02 on its way back up for $947 gross if I hadn't been stopped by that 1 cent.

You get that eh !


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## sptrawler (20 June 2010)

Actually no, I haven't a clue, i am obviously just another dumb punter trying to find intrinsic value. Don't have a clue how to read the trends, to me they are just showing what has happened they don't show what is going to happen. Trends don't take into account anything other than history, to be ahead of the game takes information and intuition.


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 June 2010)

Excellent news friends, well for people who hold TLS shares and most importantly the ones who bought a heap under the $3 bracket.   Oh yeah oh yeah. Take thats TLS doubters.


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## TheAbyss (21 June 2010)

TheAbyss said:


> And how many years will that take to realise?
> 
> In the interim, by buying the infrastructure arm from Telstra (Valued between 10 and 20 billion dollars by analysts) The govt will allow the successful NBN bidder access to all of the copper infrastructure comprising of the copper itself, ducts, conduits and pipes.
> 
> ...








TheAbyss said:


> If Telstra get $8-10 billion for the infrastructure plus costs for restructuring their It systems etc (estimated at approximately 2.5 billion) then it could be good for everyone all round.
> 
> No winners if a separate infrastructure is used so whatever happens it must use the existing trenches etc or the project will never get off the ground. Aerial is not an option and the economics say a separate trench to what is there is not viable.
> 
> Great to have some constructive comments on where readers feel this will end up.






TheAbyss said:


> Great post.
> 
> One way to ensure Telstra stays interested (which is a must for this to get some traction) is when (if) the infrastructure is hived out for the NBN, Telstra take a mix of cash and Equity. That way Telstra will have some strong reasons to migrate their base over to the NBN. Cash short term and increasing revenues long term is a popular theme with share holders.




Well market likes the $11 billion offer which is pretty close to expectations so good that there is something on the table now.

Long way to go yet though.

Watch for the future fund selling hard into this rally imo.


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## Stabilo (21 June 2010)

So do you think TLS would be a good buy at this stage? (ie, in your opinion, would it head North? or South?)


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## skc (21 June 2010)

Stabilo said:


> So do you think TLS would be a good buy at this stage? (ie, in your opinion, would it head North? or South?)




I moved recently and just called Telstra to sign up for new phone connection.

I wanted to get naked DSL so just wanted a cheap phone plan and ditch it later.

They have a homeline budget for $20.95 per month, but the consultant told me that you are not allowed to connect ADSL with another supplier with that service. So I had to go with the next plan at $27.95.

Then you can't disconnect for 3 months or it will cost $100. And that creates a huge problem - I can't live with no internet for 3 months, so I will have to sign up for an internet plan that's not naked, yet many ISPs have contracts of 6-18 months and charges an initial setup fee depending on the contract duration. Also if I sign up for a normal plan, I will need to retain the land line for a long time as well...

Then she asked me if I wanted to be listed in the White Pages. I said No. And she said that will cost an extra $3 per month to be NOT listed.

Telstra sure is doing all sorts of tricks to hold on to customers and the traditional phone service income...


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## Boggo (21 June 2010)

Last month we moved from the Adelaide hills to a place we recently bought near the beach (sea change).
Went through the usual stuff with organising phone disconnect and reconnect at new location etc.
About a week prior to the move I got a call from Telstra confirming the move etc, I asked about the number and was told I could keep the number that was at the property now.
Two days before the move I got a text asking if someone would be at the property on the Thursday as they needed to connect and check the line. I rang them and eventually got hold of someone who told me the line would be connected on Thursday as requested (the day prior to move) and did I want to know the new number. When I told him I already had it we compared numbers and he had a different number, I couldn't keep the one at the property because it was a silent number (even though they gave it to me a week before).
In the meantime I had organised my internet to be connected to the number I was originally given so I had to ring them and tell them of the new number.

I couldn't meet the Telstra guy on Thursday  so I organised it for Friday, he turned up just as I did, did his check of the phone connections and left.
Ten minutes later he came back and asked how many connections I wanted as there was already a phone line connected yesterday (Thur) and he had just connected another.
We compared the phone numbers and I told him that the one connected yesterday was the amended number and that was the one I wanted to keep.

He then got on his mobile to ring Gupta (his words) to disconnect and remove any details associated with the new Friday number, a few minutes later after he explained everything about three times he hung up, advised that it was all sorted and left.

About an hour later I tried to make a call, no dial tone, tried the other socket, dead too. On the mobile phone to Telstra and 20 minutes later I find out that they disconnected the line that they had connected on Thursday as well as the one connected today.

The following Tuesday we got the phone back on, meanwhile the ADSL had also been disconnected with the phone line so I had to get that reconnected too.

I cannot understand why anyone would not want to hold shares in a company that runs so efficiently, absolutely amazing.


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## glenn_r (21 June 2010)

It makes you wonder how Optus makes a living....

I have their Fusion plans here at my business and at home, here at work for $99.00 per month I get phone rental, free calls to local, STD, any mobile and 20gig of DSL, not bad hey and at home for $129.00 per month phone rental, free calls to local, STD, any mobile and 30gig of ADSL.

With every customer now leaving their mobile phone number as a contact and 3 teenagers at home I'm getting value for money.

Why can't Telstra offer this as they own the copper wire I'm using?


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## BrightGreenGlow (21 June 2010)

I thought the reason TLS costs more was due to their excellent coverage for mobile devices. You pay for what you get. My iPhone plan with vodafone might be cheaper and my mate's plan with Optus is just as cheap but however don't travel too far west or in certain areas and there will be no coverage.

I believe TLS get a hard deal when it comes it the 3rd party operators.

I cashed in a whole heap of TLS shares today for a very nice profit. I also believe they will continue to grow in share price as the year goes on and as the final deal comes closer.


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## ROE (21 June 2010)

Boggo said:


> I cannot understand why anyone would not want to hold shares in a company that runs so efficiently, absolutely amazing.




Not sure a few stuff up and a few disgruntle customers qualify as a matrix for buying and selling a business 

No large organization is perfect, hell people hate banks guts and they still making decent profit ...

and dominos is cheap and nasty pizza and the youtube video about some guy wipe his ass with dominos pizza but they still racking in.

if investment decision are based on personal experience and internet sensation  not sure if you can make much money out of it 

PS: I hear Vodafone is an excellent company and provide good customer services but I wouldn't put a cent into that business.. I rather put alot more in Telstra..

also Nokia executives are nice and friendly and got great market shares 
with their phone but I rather buy Ass holes Steve Jobs apple business and not even put 1 cent into Nokia


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## Boggo (21 June 2010)

ROE said:


> and dominos is cheap and nasty pizza and the youtube video about some guy wipe his ass with dominos pizza but they still racking in.
> 
> *if investment decision are based on personal experience and internet sensation*  not sure if you can make much money out of it




There's nothing else to go on really is there other than personal experience etc.

You could always inject a dose of reality I suppose. Then again reality is just an illusion created by alcohol deficiency.

Some people use that charting (pictures with squiggly lines) type stuff but I would rather trust a Mexican than use any of that.

.


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## sptrawler (21 June 2010)

Well at last a decent outcome for telstra shareholders. From the news articles it would appear that Telstra will be compensated as subscribers are transfered to the N.B.N. Also one would think they will require Telstra to play a major part in rolling out the infrastructure as they are probably the only ones with the expertise and skilled labour pool to expedite the roll out. From the newspapers they say some of the money is for access to Telstras exchanges, which would indicate Telstra will still own them. It should be great for the shareholder because the government payments should enable Telstra to maintain the dividend as it migrates its dying landline customers over to the N.B.N(taxpayer). What a winner as the universal service agreement monkey is off Telstras back and the regulation forbidding Telstra from offering the same deals as the other carriers should now be lifted. 
If you could get the same deal from Telstra as Optus, Vodaphone etc, but have much better coverage, I know who I would be using. Bring it on a level playing field, just look how the overseas banks went, can't wait to see what Optus has to say when they can't sic the ACCC onto Telstra.
UPWARD AND ONWARD, I SAY YEH.


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## sptrawler (21 June 2010)

Hi Boggo, I was writing the post so never noticed your chart. 
As I stated before charts show historic trends and don,t have the ability to factor in changes, they only show in the future what effect those changes had, be it good or bad. The reason I thought Telstra were a reasonable punt was because when they were floated in the 90,s at $3 the opposition government at the time stated they were a give away price to help the fat cats make money.
Subsequently the next tranche  was floated at $7.40 since then Telstra has installed a wireless network far in excess of the competitors. Because the opposition tele providers promise to install infrastructure but don't bother because it's easier to cherry pick high density areas. If the restrictive legislation is lifted Telstra will cream Optus because Optus have sat on their **** and cherry picked for years.


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## Boggo (21 June 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Hi Boggo, I was writing the post so never noticed your chart.




I was a holder of TLS in the early days, it had (and still should have) enormous potential but through idiots and mexicans they ruined it.
I have probably made more by shorting it than what I made on its way up, it shouldn't be like that.
Telstra are not doing themselves any favours with the level of bungling of what should be simple routine daily tasks that constitute most of the gripes on here.

They need to have a big clean out from the top down and they need to approach their business in a competitive manner.
Some of the staff they have in their newly branded stores need to spend six months in McDonalds to learn some of the most basic of skills, how they actually get employed to be the public face of a company is beyond me.

One day I hope to be able to have TLS in my SMSF and and also feel confident that I don't have to set aside half a day to sort out minor problems.

The one area I do have an issue with is why anyone would have hung on to their shares while they dropped over 60% in ten years and then get excited when they turn up by 5%, maybe its just me.

Lets hope that this NBN etc is a new start for them.

Rant over


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## sptrawler (22 June 2010)

Hi Boggo, I agree with you completely, I had them in the early days and luckily I had some T1's that offset my losses on T2. It just shows what a stuff up Governments do when they get involved in the market. Just have a look at the R&I  i.e Bankwest fiasco with bank of Scotland. I just think that now the government is getting out or should that be getting in and taking the monkey, or is that the ACC, off telstras back they may be able to compete on a level playing field. If they give a return of capital or a big dividend it is well worth being in at $3 especially in the SMSF.


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## nulla nulla (22 June 2010)

Interesting column in todays Sydney Morning Herald Business Day. They suggest that the tls price is unlikely to go above $3.47 as that was the price the future fund dumped their large parcel previously. 
Even though the brokers value it arround $4, now that it's involvement with NBN has been given some positive direction, it is considered unlikely for the institutions to buy in while the overhang of the future funds holding persists.


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## Tatts (22 June 2010)

skc said:


> I moved recently and just called Telstra to sign up for new phone connection.
> 
> I wanted to get naked DSL so just wanted a cheap phone plan and ditch it later.
> 
> They have a homeline budget for $20.95 per month, but the consultant told me that you are not allowed to connect ADSL with another supplier with that service. So I had to go with the next plan at $27.95.




Not sure if that is a new policy they brought out but i have the budget homeline connection set up with ADSL from another supplier. It was connected about March last year.
If you are getting naked DSL why don't you just use VOIP instead of paying that much for a phone line?


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## skc (22 June 2010)

Tatts said:


> Not sure if that is a new policy they brought out but i have the budget homeline connection set up with ADSL from another supplier. It was connected about March last year.
> If you are getting naked DSL why don't you just use VOIP instead of paying that much for a phone line?




It's a catch 22 - you actually need a phone line first before they can get you naked... 

With the NBN essentially paying TLS to shut down the copper wire, TLS become essentially a retail operation - will they be a better performing company compared to an integrated monopoly?? hmm...


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## malachii (23 June 2010)

ROE said:


> Not sure a few stuff up and a few disgruntle customers qualify as a matrix for buying and selling a business




I agree - except for the fact that is not a few.  I have yet to meet a satisfied customer of TLS.  A mate of mine works for TLS and when I asked about hooking up our phone (we have just moved) he recommended several companies - none of which were TLS!!  When I queried him he said that he would never recommend them.  Even though he gets a staff discount off his phone bill if he is with TLS he has his phone with another company.

I thought I would give them another chance and went into the local TLS shop to enquire about home and mobile phones.  The sales girl told me that I would be better off with Optus as TLS was too expensive!!!!

With that kind of service and reputation - what hope do they have?

malachii


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## Boggo (23 June 2010)

Add to that the fact that they cannot do an announcement properly, quite a few would have been buying on Monday from the people who got on last week.

http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/tesltra-insider-trading-suspicion-1628170.html


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## Dunger (23 June 2010)

Is Telstra the beast that it is because it's a "private" organisation owned by the government with the appropriate legislation to secure it in the market?

Would Telstra behave more efficiently if they were a totally private business competing against other telcos with no legislation to make it a monopoly?

I deal with HP regularly and they are much bigger than TLS but they don't have monumental stuff ups like TLS.


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## sptrawler (23 June 2010)

Well Dunger, the whole stuff up was the Government, as usual. They wanted maximum money from the float, so they sold it to the mums and dads as a verticaly intergrated company( and lets be honest the mums and dads i.e taxpayers payed for building it originally). That way the mums and dads thought they were going to get a good return.
Then came the problem, all the overseas multinationals eg Optus, Hutchinson, Vodaphone, said we can't compete and since then it has been downhill for Telstra. After getting maximum dollars for it the Government have then constantly legislated to cripple it, Telstra can't offer the same price as the competitors, they must sell access to the network cheaper than they sell it( so the multinationals can make a margin). They have to supply a service to outback areas where the service runs at a huge loss, funny the multinationals don't want to service these low margin areas.
Telstra shareholders have had to carry the social conscience of the Government. Really the only fair thing to do would have been to have nationalised Telstra and payed out the shareholders at the same price the Government recieved for it( but that money has been spent).


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## ROE (23 June 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Well Dunger, the whole stuff up was the Government, as usual. They wanted maximum money from the float, so they sold it to the mums and dads as a verticaly intergrated company( and lets be honest the mums and dads i.e taxpayers payed for building it originally). That way the mums and dads thought they were going to get a good return.
> Then came the problem, all the overseas multinationals eg Optus, Hutchinson, Vodaphone, said we can't compete and since then it has been downhill for Telstra. After getting maximum dollars for it the Government have then constantly legislated to cripple it, Telstra can't offer the same price as the competitors, they must sell access to the network cheaper than they sell it( so the multinationals can make a margin). They have to supply a service to outback areas where the service runs at a huge loss, funny the multinationals don't want to service these low margin areas.
> Telstra shareholders have had to carry the social conscience of the Government. Really the only fair thing to do would have been to have nationalised Telstra and payed out the shareholders at the same price the Government recieved for it( but that money has been spent).




Don't blame anyone, when you make an investment decision you have to factor in some risks....whether it's regulation, **** management, or change in landscape of the business or change of government..

No one put a gun to anyone head and say buy Telstra...

mum and dad or whoever they are smart enough to make that call when you put the money on the line to buy something....if they cant then it's their problem and they need to understand the risk before they buy into a business.

when you drive on the road people assume you know the rules, if you don't
you get into accident, same with investing in the sharemarket...if you play ignorant and don't know the rules you can get burned and who to blame but yourself..


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## ROE (23 June 2010)

Dunger said:


> Is Telstra the beast that it is because it's a "private" organisation owned by the government with the appropriate legislation to secure it in the market?
> 
> Would Telstra behave more efficiently if they were a totally private business competing against other telcos with no legislation to make it a monopoly?
> 
> I deal with HP regularly and they are much bigger than TLS but they don't have monumental stuff ups like TLS.




you don't get regulate because you are big, you get regulated because you are in the business that has regulation surrounding it..

Regulations usually exist in business that provide vital services and infrastructure to the people...Electricity, Gas pipe line etc..

HP can stop selling computers and printers and it wont effect people life
but if Telstra decided that they turn off the phone services in regional area
then farmers and people in those area will be up in arm 

or someone decided to turn off the Gas pipe line or rack up price 100%
you don't have much choice but pay up...

HP can rack up their computer and printers by 100% and people don't care
as they just ignore them and buy from someone cheaper...


----------



## sptrawler (23 June 2010)

Hey ROE I am not blaming anyone for an investment decision, what I was saying was the`same people that sold it(the Government) then systematically destroyed its value. They should have done that before they sold it.


----------



## sptrawler (23 June 2010)

Actually what is really ironic is the Government is going to replace tax payer infrastructure it sold to the tax payers. With tax payer infrastructure it is going to put in and then in 5 - 10 years sell it to the taxpayer. I WON"T BE CAUGHT NEXT TIME. I must remember.


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## ROE (26 June 2010)

malachii said:


> I agree - except for the fact that is not a few.  I have yet to meet a satisfied customer of TLS.  A mate of mine works for TLS and when I asked about hooking up our phone (we have just moved) he recommended several companies - none of which were TLS!!  When I queried him he said that he would never recommend them.  Even though he gets a staff discount off his phone bill if he is with TLS he has his phone with another company.
> 
> I thought I would give them another chance and went into the local TLS shop to enquire about home and mobile phones.  The sales girl told me that I would be better off with Optus as TLS was too expensive!!!!
> 
> ...




You may be on to something there but I usually looks at financial books to determine if customers abandon the company or they don't make enough in certain area......This will tell me whether the customers shout loudly but they couldn't be bother switch carrier because they know they get the same treatment in Optus and Vodafone.....

very much like the banks  lot of shouting and bitching about banks not many people do anything about it....

Right now the book tell me they are losing fix line but this is a problem
they have to address at some stage this is a problem management has to tackle head on.....

if they decline in fix line and other division then it worry me
but decline in old ancient asset only to be replaced by growth in Wireless, Data and Foxtel then it's a good thing for Telstra...

TLS do have their fair share of problems but what they lose in one area they make money in other area and their return on asset is the best
of its class..

at a certain price TLS become compelling value despite all their problems.

TLS has many unique assets other Telco in the world would dream of having 
all it need is decent management to get a high return for these assets
by changing the way they offer their services (bundle is the key here) and I think Thodey already started this journey not too long ago...


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## AngusSmart (8 July 2010)

This was sent to my email, and i am not a member of fat..

http://www.fatprophets.com.au/Membe...C9701E}&product=Australasian Equities&pt=paid


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## sptrawler (13 July 2010)

I tend to think the issue with Telstra now that they have a general agreement with the NBN. Is how they offer competing plans with the other telcos and don't bring the wroth of the ACCC down on them. The Government has to give Telstra a fair go which should allow them to protect their consumer base while giving away their fixed line consumers to the NBN. That would indicate the Government would have to lift the restrictive legislation that stops Telstra from offering competitive plans similar to the other carriers. If this happens (as it should) Telstra would stop bleeding customers and start to build up its customer base again.


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## boofhead (14 July 2010)

Does the legislation cover NBN? I don't think Telstra paying for access to NBN will be an excuse for anything except lower profits. Optus is large and often not competitive with other telcos. Telstra also has interests in international fibre.


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## BrightGreenGlow (15 July 2010)

So guys when will the deal with the NBN become iron clad? I could imagine a price around $3.60 on that day? Since this should happen soon especially with the election coming very soon is TLS a strong buy? I have $20k waiting to put into something soonish and I feel TLS would be a good bet. Thoughts?


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## drsmith (15 July 2010)

When ??

More like if. The current ALP government has to be re-elected first.

Everybody likes to imagine higher prices for their investments.


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## BrightGreenGlow (15 July 2010)

If the Libs get in there will be no NBN or a forced separation by the ALP so its win.win isn't it????


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## drsmith (15 July 2010)

If it is a win win for Telstra regardless of who is in power, then why would that not be factored into the current share price ?


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## ROE (15 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> So guys when will the deal with the NBN become iron clad? I could imagine a price around $3.60 on that day? Since this should happen soon especially with the election coming very soon is TLS a strong buy? I have $20k waiting to put into something soonish and I feel TLS would be a good bet. Thoughts?




Factor in some cut for yield say 24 cents I think the yield can be maintained at current level or 24 cents for a while yet

I would buy at price closer to $3 to factor in margin of safety to have high yield with some risk to capital decline but not hell of a lot at price closer to 3

I put more than your amount at 2.92 some times ago when all the negatives news going against telstra. I soon figure out at that price and yield it is as good as it get for any stock  

Still holding for yield


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## BrightGreenGlow (28 July 2010)

drsmith said:


> If it is a win win for Telstra regardless of who is in power, then why would that not be factored into the current share price ?




Maybe everyone is taking into account when the FF will offload another lot of shares?

I'm very tempted to buy a few thousand more TLS soon. Hoping the SP will drop a few more cents though. When does TLS report their next profit?


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## snowking (28 July 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Maybe everyone is taking into account when the FF will offload another lot of shares?
> 
> I'm very tempted to buy a few thousand more TLS soon. Hoping the SP will drop a few more cents though. When does TLS report their next profit?




TLS reports on the 12th of August, only a couple of weeks away now. 

Business Spectator has a full list of company reporting dates, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/EARNINGS-CALENDAR-pd20100727-7RA52?OpenDocument


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 July 2010)

snowking said:


> TLS reports on the 12th of August, only a couple of weeks away now.
> 
> Business Spectator has a full list of company reporting dates, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/EARNINGS-CALENDAR-pd20100727-7RA52?OpenDocument




Thank you  
                                             .


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2010)

sptrawler said:


> I tend to think the issue with Telstra now that they have a general agreement with the NBN. Is how they offer competing plans with the other telcos and don't bring the wroth of the ACCC down on them. The Government has to give Telstra a fair go which should allow them to protect their consumer base while giving away their fixed line consumers to the NBN. That would indicate the Government would have to lift the restrictive legislation that stops Telstra from offering competitive plans similar to the other carriers. If this happens (as it should) Telstra would stop bleeding customers and start to build up its customer base again.



.

The terrain seems to have changed and what I mentioned above seems to be coming to fruition. http://www.smh.com.au/business/mobile-price-war-looms-for-telcos-20100729-10wvq.html .
Well if you take the latest ACCC fine into account $18M (not enough, says the competition) there seems to be a bit of panic coming into the competitors. Well I for one, think they know they are like the people crying wolf for the last 10 years. Now they have the real wolf on their doorstep and they are $#!T!#&. A level playing field, AT LAST A FAIR GO FOR TELSTRA SHAREHOLDERS.


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2010)

I forgot to mention, *Congratulations ROE*, picking them at $2.92 was a winner. 
Even if Liberal win the election my guess is they will continue on with the NBN. Business and government require a secure network, wireless doesn't provide it and Telstra was being shafted to have to provide it(with the copper network)at the shareholders expense. 
With the NBN the Government will be supplying the secure infrastructure that is required(as it should be) not the Telstra shareholder.
Telstra will be leasing out it's exchanges and infrastructure to the government to provide the secure service. Telstra will then be able to compete with the other users eg Optus, to supply retail services at competitive prices with a much better and far reaching wireless network. 
I can only see upside for Telstra with the burden of the Universal Service Obligation being lifted and the dying copper network being taken over by the Government, leaving Telstra with the best wireless network and leasing it's infrastructure for ongoing income. $h!t it has been a long time coming but maybe the outcome will have been a torturous but excellent result.


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2010)

sptrawler said:


> boofhead, I don't have any references but I am making an assumption that there will be some kind of cost associated with a multiplexing device required at the home and also some form of labor and materials cost to pull out the copper and pull in the fibre. Also one would assume for a $43 billion outlay there would be some form return on capital required, maybe the taxpayer will wear it. But from information available on the net, places that have the superfast broadband have not seen a corresponding superfast take up of the services. At the end of the day it will depend on the cost, most people just browse and that speed is governed by the site you are viewing.




Well boofhead, the quote in April is proving correct. The take up in Tassie has just been reported on the news as low(hot off the 5 PM news WA time). I think this will put more pressure on the Government, whichever party, to continue on with the NBN because it is the responsibility of the Government not the Telstra shareholders to supply the secure network.


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## sptrawler (29 July 2010)

drsmith said:


> If it is a win win for Telstra regardless of who is in power, then why would that not be factored into the current share price ?




I hate to keep hijacking the thread but I just love seeing Aussie companies standing up to the multinationals.
Dr Smith i accept your comments with high respect. but how would the fund managers make money if all shares were fair value, eg why is WBC at such a discount to CBA if is a reflection of fair value. Chart them both against each other and taking into consideration their take overs and their shares on issue to earnings potential. One would have to think WBC is a bargain.
Again these are personal beliefs and I did sell CBA to buy WBC


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## drsmith (29 July 2010)

There's not much scope for variation in the assessment of fair value if it's only based on who is in government and it's a win win either way.


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 July 2010)

If the ALP get re-elected they will go gang busters.

They will probably trade sideways or fall a bit if the Libs get over the line. 

The Rollout is in their favour. 

I must have a close look at their chart on the weekend. 

gg


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## Boggo (12 August 2010)

I may be wrong but I suspect that the end result of people like me trying to call the Telstra Tshop in the Marion shopping centre from Brighton (just over 1 km away) and getting put through to a call centre in the Philippines to be re-directed may have an impact on the financial results just published.

Then again I could be wrong


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## ROE (12 August 2010)

sptrawler said:


> I forgot to mention, *Congratulations ROE*, picking them at $2.92 was a winner.
> Even if Liberal win the election my guess is they will continue on with the NBN. Business and government require a secure network, wireless doesn't provide it and Telstra was being shafted to have to provide it(with the copper network)at the shareholders expense.
> With the NBN the Government will be supplying the secure infrastructure that is required(as it should be) not the Telstra shareholder.
> Telstra will be leasing out it's exchanges and infrastructure to the government to provide the secure service. Telstra will then be able to compete with the other users eg Optus, to supply retail services at competitive prices with a much better and far reaching wireless network.
> I can only see upside for Telstra with the burden of the Universal Service Obligation being lifted and the dying copper network being taken over by the Government, leaving Telstra with the best wireless network and leasing it's infrastructure for ongoing income. $h!t it has been a long time coming but maybe the outcome will have been a torturous but excellent result.




Nothing to be congratulated just trying to get a decent return for my money over the cycle of my working life before I retire 

on that note I bought another 6500 shares today at $2.95


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## jonnycage (13 August 2010)

dipped in at 2.85,  pretty happy with that.  hope for a quick return but as
they say stranger things have happend lol

j c


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## Huitzii (13 August 2010)

jonnycage said:


> dipped in at 2.85,  pretty happy with that.  hope for a quick return but as
> they say stranger things have happend lol
> 
> j c




I was having a close look at TLS last night and thought the same thing but there are much better opportunities out there atm so ive passed for now
DYOR


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## trainspotter (13 August 2010)

Hands up who shorted them on the way down? If the revenue is dropping form their land lines what is it being replaced with? More mobile phones? Or do people just don't have a phone hanging on the wall anymore?


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 August 2010)

Whats the latest with TLS guys? I see they are back below the $3 mark again due to the reporting season. Surely they are worth more than $3? How will the election affect them?


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## Boggo (20 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Whats the latest with TLS guys? I see they are back below the $3 mark again...




Probably another analyst or broker recommendation, always a good time to exit or short.

Interesting read
http://www.smh.com.au/business/telstras-dividend-under-siege-20100816-1266j.html
.


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## pixel (20 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Whats the latest with TLS guys? I see they are back below the $3 mark again due to the reporting season. Surely they are worth more than $3? How will the election affect them?




It's probably less a case of the election, but Monday's going ex-dividend. The last couple of days may have been influenced by dividend strippers. In the end, I sold, netting an immediate profit, rather than having to wait for the 14c to be paid in September and Franking Credits a year later - if I'd get them.

Regardless of the election outcome, I find it quite conceivable that Telstra may drop below $2.80 next week. And if they lose control of "their" copper network, and are coerced to add and support bandwidth in the bush, profitability will be further reduced. Our pollies fly the economy by the seat of their pants - and with short-sighted targets in 3-year election rhythms. That's never going to turn a utility like Telstra into a future-proof, profitable enterprise.


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## malachii (20 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Whats the latest with TLS guys? I see they are back below the $3 mark again due to the reporting season. Surely they are worth more than $3? How will the election affect them?




I struggle to see how TLS can be valued above $3.  It is a declining political football that is kicked from pillar to post.  Nothing gets votes and ratings like bagging TLS.  No matter when you bought this company, if you still hold it you have made a loss.  We can argue about the great dividends (which they have to borrow money to pay for????!!!! How can this be a great long term strategy for shareholders?) but at the end of the day it has been on a downward slope for years and shows no sign of slowing.  Every time they come out with a report it shows how they are losing more customers and money.  We can blame changes in technology, political parties, managment, customer service...... the list goes on and on but at the end of the day - as an investment this company is one of the worst.

My opinion only - do your own research.  Even better - try to find someone that has had a good experience with this company in ANY form - customer, employee, shareholder, regulator.  I'm sure there is one out there - I just haven't met them yet.

malachii

PS - I do not own shares in this company so maybe my opinion is biased.


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## jancha (21 August 2010)

malachii said:


> I struggle to see how TLS can be valued above $3.  It is a declining political football that is kicked from pillar to post.  Nothing gets votes and ratings like bagging TLS.  No matter when you bought this company, if you still hold it you have made a loss.  We can argue about the great dividends (which they have to borrow money to pay for????!!!! How can this be a great long term strategy for shareholders?) but at the end of the day it has been on a downward slope for years and shows no sign of slowing.  Every time they come out with a report it shows how they are losing more customers and money.  We can blame changes in technology, political parties, managment, customer service...... the list goes on and on but at the end of the day - as an investment this company is one of the worst.
> 
> My opinion only - do your own research.  Even better - try to find someone that has had a good experience with this company in ANY form - customer, employee, shareholder, regulator.  I'm sure there is one out there - I just haven't met them yet.
> 
> ...




You may struggle to see tls fair value above $3 so at what price would you put on them?
Huntleys have them at a buy with a fair value @ $3.60.
True that Telstra over the years has declined in value and long term holders would be very dissappointed but at some point as in most shares there's a bottom. 
How much lower can it go before there's a correction?
It's not as if Tls earnings are going to disappear in a hurry, they are a low risked share and are leaders in the field. They just have to get their act together & win back customers. I would have thought that they're in the drivers seat to do this. 
Imo they are a good buy. If there's a hiccup in the world market, a double dip it would be one of the least of companies to be effected by it as shown in the past. 
I personally think it's a buying opportunity especially next week when they'll more than likely fall after the ex div date.


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## Julia (21 August 2010)

I read an article last week suggesting that the dividend on TLS is vulnerable, giving how much difficulty they are in.
Sorry, I can't now recall where it was.


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## Boggo (21 August 2010)

Julia said:


> I read an article last week suggesting that the dividend on TLS is vulnerable, giving how much difficulty they are in.
> Sorry, I can't now recall where it was.




There is info about it in the link in my post 745 above Julia, probably similiar summary.


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## BrightGreenGlow (21 August 2010)

In regards to that $3.60 target. I have read many people say that TLS is way under-priced in the world stage of telecommunication operators. I would also imagine the land-line profits they get well only be switched over to mobile handsets. Who here has Voda, 3 and Optus that has poor reception or non constant 3g transfer?


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## springhill (21 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> In regards to that $3.60 target. I have read many people say that TLS is way under-priced in the world stage of telecommunication operators. I would also imagine the land-line profits they get well only be switched over to mobile handsets. Who here has Voda, 3 and Optus that has poor reception or non constant 3g transfer?




3 steal alot of customers off telstra due to better plans and the fact they roam to the telstra network in areas where the 3 network signal is not available. 75% of my friends would be with 3.


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## McCoy Pauley (21 August 2010)

Julia said:


> I read an article last week suggesting that the dividend on TLS is vulnerable, giving how much difficulty they are in.
> Sorry, I can't now recall where it was.




Probably multiple sources.  Hard to maintain the dividend in the face of declining earnings and NPAT.


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## jancha (22 August 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Probably multiple sources.  Hard to maintain the dividend in the face of declining earnings and NPAT.




Hence Telstras goal on winning customers back & moving with the changing market. 
Imo Sol Trujillo stuffed up Tls big time with its new billing system, customer service ect. Didn't help their cause.
Tls still hold the cards it's just a matter of working with the customers & gaining them back.


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## Dreadweave (22 August 2010)

interesting that 3 roam telstra network. sounds good but then I read this "Roaming charges are 50c per megabyte for customers using X-Series Packs, or $2 per megabyte for casual use.

Prepaid customers are charged $8 (Bonus) or $5 (Cap) per megabyte.

Monthly mobile broadband users will be up for 50c per megabyte (previously $1.65), while prepaid customers will get 15M for $7.50 instead of the old 4M allowance."

so anyone wanting telstra coverage is better off just going on a telstra
service. shouldn't take long before 3 customers realize this and switch to telstra.


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## ROE (22 August 2010)

People are expecting too much when buying stocks 
Lower your expectation and you be surprise what you get in return.

I actually want TLS to lower its dividend to 20c if its earn 30c 
a share and use that cash cow to starve its rival and I hope Thodey will
do that...

at $2.90 expect 15 to 20 cents dividend and you still get
5.1 to 6.8 franking yield

that is very good compared to long term bonds.
but there are someone who always argue bonds is safer, sure it is safer that why the return on investment is low that why Stocks offer better pay off when things do align.
so if people cant handle the volatility of the stock price bonds or bank deposit should be their thing

people buying TLS at higher price may not like it but price is paramount
for any investment when you consider its intrinsic value.

Expect a few more years of slow earning before TLS becomes a more efficient
machine... given that expectation TLS can deliver 20 EPS a year and you wont panic too much before the giant start to turn.

Always compare your return to long term bond return not some high rise double digit fantasy but if stock do deliver double digit return when you expecting 8% return a year then you just accelerating your compounding return

good luck and you know what to do when you recognise value and I am a TLS share holder only recently


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## Julia (22 August 2010)

ROE said:


> People are expecting too much when buying stocks
> Lower your expectation and you be surprise what you get in return.



So it's unreasonable to buy a stock with the expectation that the SP will rise?
Yes, I suppose if you have no expectations of making a capital profit, you're not going to be so disappointed when the SP falls.
Sorry, ROE, but - unless you're taking a very, very long term view (and even that's suspect under the present circumstances) - that's a pretty hard sell imo.


> at $2.90 expect 15 to 20 cents dividend and you still get
> 5.1 to 6.8 franking yield
> 
> that is very good compared to long term bonds.



Long term bonds are a very poor investment at present.  But why limit the comparison of buying TLS to just bonds?
I'm currently getting 8% on a term deposit, certainly no chance of capital gain, but in the current market, having no risk of capital loss feels pretty good to me.



> Expect a few more years of slow earning before TLS becomes a more efficient
> machine..



So why wouldn't you in the meantime put your funds into something with more security, or if choosing shares, a company with a more optimistic outlook regarding rising SP?


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## malachii (23 August 2010)

ROE said:


> People are expecting too much when buying stocks
> Lower your expectation and you be surprise what you get in return.
> 
> I actually want TLS to lower its dividend to 20c if its earn 30c
> ...




Is a company with declining revenue and shrinking market share a good buy with a dividend at 6.8%?  I would say not - I can get similar or better dividends with companies that are growing and have good managment.  You cant compare it too bonds.  As you say bonds are safer.  If I'm going to take out a higher risk I want a higher return - not the same return.  That just doesn't make sense.

TLS dividend has to be at risk.  How can a company borrow money to pay a dividend?  That would be like me borrowing from the bank because I dont earn enough in the hope that in the future I might get a pay rise AND ignoring the fact that I'm working less and less hours a week!

The other argument of "last week this work selling for 3.30 therefore at 2.90 its a bargain" is rubbish.  The chart shows that over the last X (pick a number) years it has been in a decline.  Until the company changes drastically - it will continue in decline.  It is still one of the most expensive providers of services and has an incredibly poor reputation for customer service.  I have yet to see any sign of managment seriously dealing with these issues - so what is the trigger for change?

To say that there income is stable or always going to be there is being proven wrong every year.  The decline in their "bread and butter" areas is real and not showing any sign of reversing.  The uptake of "new" areas is increasing - but not at a rate that can counteract the other declines and pretty much all of the new tech areas have heavy competition from major players who are not restricted by Politicians.  

I am not bagging TLS because I hate the company.  I just cant see any reason to risk my money with them.  They have a bad history, with bad management, in a bad industry, surrounded by bad political policies and are showing no tangible way to change this.  Please prove me wrong.  Please show me that my assumptions are wrong.  I'm keen to be proven wrong on this but I've yet to see any argument backed by facts.  Even the "professionals" (huntleys was quoted previously) dont really show any credible arguments to change.  Just that "if all things stay the same - maybe its worth a bit more than now"!  I'd also be interested to see if huntleys still think it is worth $3.60 because I think that report has been out a little while.

malachii

PS - I dont own TLS shares.  This may make me biased!!!


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## mr. jeff (23 August 2010)

Well I don't think that Thodey is the same "bad" management that Sol may have been, the current media coverage shows that he is taking a major run at improving customer service, whilst also beginning to squeeze the competition on cost - see their quick change in smart phone plans. 
They also have the hardware that Australia will need in the future, like it or not, and very big corporate muscle, so it is quite questionable  to label TLS a company that is just rubbish and finished and going down the drain.
Although they have not performed and are losing market share, this does not change the underlying fact that they are tesltra, not Optus or 3; that is a big difference...I have friends who have recently moved back to TLS for their service recently, I wonder if this is reflected in their churn over the coming quarters?


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## jancha (23 August 2010)

malachii said:


> Is a company with declining revenue and shrinking market share a good buy with a dividend at 6.8%?  I would say not - I can get similar or better dividends with companies that are growing and have good managment.  You cant compare it too bonds.  As you say bonds are safer.  If I'm going to take out a higher risk I want a higher return - not the same return.  That just doesn't make sense.
> 
> TLS dividend has to be at risk.  How can a company borrow money to pay a dividend?  That would be like me borrowing from the bank because I dont earn enough in the hope that in the future I might get a pay rise AND ignoring the fact that I'm working less and less hours a week!
> 
> ...




Malachii you may not own Tls shares now but you certainly seem to have been burnt from them in the past.
Sol was a biggest set back for Telstra & he's gone now.
I have faith in the management and what they can deliver.
I look for a company like Telstra where it's been dogged in the past & has the ability to gain back customers and revenue.
Huntleys last analyst was the 16th of August 2010 with a fair value of $3.60.
I suppose you could find better returns in other companies but if there were  double dip with GFC Telstra shares would be least affected as it has been in the past. Each to their own.


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## Dreadweave (23 August 2010)

mr. jeff said:


> Well I don't think that Thodey is the same "bad" management that Sol may have been, the current media coverage shows that he is taking a major run at improving customer service, whilst also beginning to squeeze the competition on cost - see their quick change in smart phone plans.
> They also have the hardware that Australia will need in the future, like it or not, and very big corporate muscle, so it is quite questionable  to label TLS a company that is just rubbish and finished and going down the drain.
> Although they have not performed and are losing market share, this does not change the underlying fact that they are tesltra, not Optus or 3; that is a big difference...I have friends who have recently moved back to TLS for their service recently, I wonder if this is reflected in their churn over the coming quarters?




exactly right. in the past 6 months telstra has released more compedative mobilephone, mobile Internet, and fixed broadband plans. With the fixed broadband and foxtel bundles, I think things are moving in the right direction.

happy to say I'm in today at 2.8

making me a shareholder, as well as an employee and customer of telstra.
working in a marketing and sales type of position Im happy to say I have finally put my money where my mouth is lol.


----------



## noie (23 August 2010)

Dreadweave said:


> exactly right. in the past 6 months telstra has released more compedative mobilephone, mobile Internet, and fixed broadband plans. With the fixed broadband and foxtel bundles, I think things are moving in the right direction.
> 
> happy to say I'm in today at 2.8
> 
> ...




Well if they can keep there balance sheet looking nice (as it is at present) for another half, i value the company at 3.30-3.50 depending on the NROE
remember it only dropped below 3.00 after some bad earning results in Feb


----------



## malachii (23 August 2010)

jancha said:


> Malachii you may not own Tls shares now but you certainly seem to have been burnt from them in the past.
> Sol was a biggest set back for Telstra & he's gone now.
> I have faith in the management and what they can deliver.
> I look for a company like Telstra where it's been dogged in the past & has the ability to gain back customers and revenue.
> ...




To suggest this is personal and that I am bagging TLS "because I was burnt" is dodging the facts.  I have made no dispersion on any persons comments - just asked for some facts to back up predictions/expectations.  And I am still waiting!

Other than last week for a period from Fri 13/8/2010 to Mon 16/8/2010 I haven't owned TLS since it first floated (2 Trades - bought 2 parcels of 10 000 @ $2.90 and sold 10 000 @$2.91 and 10 000 @ $2.95).  I bought in on the inital T1 float and sold about 8 months later (for a profit) so I have never been "burnt" by it.   

TLS managment has been there for years and have done nothing but run it into the ground.  You can bag Sol but at least he tried something.  It didn't work but he did try.  The current managment has been promoted from within and have done nothing.  Thodey has been there is 2001 (2009 as ceo).  Stanhope has been there since 1967.  How much time do they want?  What are they doing differently?  When do they expect the changes to take effect?  Even their outlook for the company is enemic!  Why would you place any more faith (and $$$) in them?

They are not predicting an overall increase in customers nor revenue as far as I can see in their report.

There is NO evidence that TLS would not be hit less or more than any other company with a double dip.  When revenues fell in 2008/2009 they blamed the GFC.  Why would GFC 2 be any different? 

Huntleys released a report back in late may that had a $3.60 target so maybe they are rehashing reports.

I am not critisizing you or anyone else for holding TLS.  I cannot make an investment case for them but that does not mean I am not wrong.  My main concern with the company is really that they should have a basically bullet proof company but dont seem to be able to "get it together".  I am, and have been, looking for evidence to the contrary - but cannot find it.  If you can show me then please do.  I am always willing to be corrected by facts but not beaten over the head by emotions.


----------



## malachii (23 August 2010)

noie said:


> Well if they can keep there balance sheet looking nice (as it is at present) for another half, i value the company at 3.30-3.50 depending on the NROE
> remember it only dropped below 3.00 after some bad earning results in Feb




Show me the last earnings results that didn't cause a drop.  It has been dropping after earnings results almost consistently since it was $9 something.

malachii


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## ROE (23 August 2010)

Julia said:


> So it's unreasonable to buy a stock with the expectation that the SP will rise?
> Yes, I suppose if you have no expectations of making a capital profit, you're not going to be so disappointed when the SP falls.
> Sorry, ROE, but - unless you're taking a very, very long term view (and even that's suspect under the present circumstances) - that's a pretty hard sell imo.
> 
> ...




That is because I cant time the market 

I do go in with the intension of getting capital grow what I can't do
is predict it...that where the margin of safety come in....

can you predict share price movement?

what I am saying is price violity doesnt bother me, you saying TLS suffer price decline that because you have hindinsight 20/20 ..if you are really sure TLS going to go down

why don't you short it? lot of people can make lot of money if they know for sure it's going down or up....

why I go in doesn't really matter to anyone but me because of my margin of safety and I'm not encouraging to anyone to buy TLS, I just put forward a view based on TLS figures... 

if you ask any respectable people about money they will tell you
when you place money outside bonds you expect your money is under some form of risk

to compensate for better return...these risks range from regulations, competition, technologies etc...but if these risk can be contained, minimise or eleminated then your return on investment will be rewarded for you to take money outside bonds...

I'm not talking about high risk, high return crab that is a falacy.
you can get low risk high return based on intrinsic value of the business...

and yes my investment horizon is long term, very long term... 25 years plus
TLS may not be around by then but I keep close eyes on most of my baskets..

2 years is short in my time frame, intrindsic value doesnt works well in
short time frame.

I wont get into an argument with bonds and bank deposit and stuff as this is up to  individual how they measure risk free premium.....

good luck maybe your short or long TLS 

I be back here in three years and see 

if my investment in TLS is a loss making venture or a profitable one.
and while I sit on my ass I'm happy with 15-20 cents payout a year other
may want a lot more for their money and good luck to them...


----------



## jancha (23 August 2010)

malachii said:


> To suggest this is personal and that I am bagging TLS "because I was burnt" is dodging the facts.  I have made no dispersion on any persons comments - just asked for some facts to back up predictions/expectations.  And I am still waiting!
> 
> Other than last week for a period from Fri 13/8/2010 to Mon 16/8/2010 I haven't owned TLS since it first floated (2 Trades - bought 2 parcels of 10 000 @ $2.90 and sold 10 000 @$2.91 and 10 000 @ $2.95).  I bought in on the inital T1 float and sold about 8 months later (for a profit) so I have never been "burnt" by it.
> 
> ...




Facts are they are the leading telecommunications service with the ability to turn things around.
At least Sol tried something different? What a Joke!!  Going logger head with the government?
 The new billing system? 
 How many people had billing mistakes?
  Telstras customer service would've been run off their feet and would have only heard from customers that were short changed not the ones that were in credit. A shamble and waste of share holders money. 
I'd hate to think how much revenue was lost over it!
Anyway to fix something like that doesn't happen over night.
You obviously dont think they can gain customers back and thats basically what it all comes down to. 
If you want to stick to facts dont assume that Huntleys are rehashing from May report with latest report dated 16/08/2010.


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## malachii (23 August 2010)

jancha said:


> Facts are they are the leading telecommunications service with the ability to turn things around.
> At least Sol tried something different? What a Joke!!  Going logger head with the government?
> The new billing system?
> How many people had billing mistakes?
> ...




I can agree they are the largest telecomm. company - not sure about the leading.  The rest of your points seem to be reasons to not invest rather than to invest.  As I said - What Sol tried was a mistake - but he did try something.  I wasn't assuming a May report, the assumption was they may have rehashed it.  I cannot tell because I dont have the report from 16/8.  That was all I was trying to say.

I am not trying to make this personal.  For everyone selling - someone is buying.  My comments were just in response to people asking for opinions - that is all.  I dont own the company as I have made clear.  I have no interest in it from a long or short term perspective.  Occaisonally I may short term trade it but even that is rare because for this to work - volatility is best and TLS is not particularly volatile most of the time.  

You cannot argue that it has been in a downtrend for years.  It may be on the brink of a turn around, I dont know but there is no sustained evidence (that I can find) to support this.  I hope you are right.  I hope that the largest shareholder of this company is wrong and they have made a mistake unloading large chunks of TLS.  I hope that the last 10 years of performance is not indicative of the next 10.  I hope for a lot of things but I try not to make my investment or trading decisions based on hope.

Can we agree to disagree.  You think this stock is a bargain and I dont.  Lets leave it at that and allow the discussion to continue.

malachii


----------



## Julia (23 August 2010)

malachii said:


> Can we agree to disagree.  You think this stock is a bargain and I dont.  Lets leave it at that and allow the discussion to continue.
> 
> malachii



Yep, I doubt the different points of view here are going to be resolved.
Largely it seems to depend on whether you buy and sell based on fundamentals or price action.  I have no idea about the fundamentals, but wouldn't touch it just on what the price action shows regarding market sentiment overall to TLS.

Re Huntleys:  they mostly take the FA approach.  If you look at some of their results they sometimes don't even match the index.  Each to his own, of course, but I wouldn't be regarding Huntleys as any sort of bible for investment guidance.  Do enjoy Ian Huntley's general political commentary though.

ROE, good luck with TLS.  I hope it turns around and starts to make you some money.
My point was simply that there are much better companies out there actually showing a rising SP, even in these difficult times.


----------



## pixel (23 August 2010)

Julia said:


> Yep, I doubt the different points of view here are going to be resolved.
> Largely it seems to depend on whether you buy and sell based on fundamentals or price action.  I have no idea about the fundamentals, but wouldn't touch it just on what the price action shows regarding market sentiment overall to TLS.
> 
> Re Huntleys:  they mostly take the FA approach.  If you look at some of their results they sometimes don't even match the index.  Each to his own, of course, but I wouldn't be regarding Huntleys as any sort of bible for investment guidance.  Do enjoy Ian Huntley's general political commentary though.
> ...




Inclined to side with you there, Julia;

as last week's share price couldn't even hold $3 with the imminent 14c (ff=20c) dividend, I decided to sell on Friday, "cashing in" the ff dividend immediately, rather than waiting a month and a year. Today's drop by said 20c suggests I did the right thing.

wrt Aspect-Huntleys, I agree even more. Their guesses are at times "bluddy woeful" and I regret ever having come into contact with them (as a freebie "advisory service" from one of my online brokers, who is now even charging for access  )


----------



## sptrawler (23 August 2010)

sptrawler said:


> I forgot to mention, *Congratulations ROE*, picking them at $2.92 was a winner.
> Even if Liberal win the election my guess is they will continue on with the NBN. Business and government require a secure network, wireless doesn't provide it and Telstra was being shafted to have to provide it(with the copper network)at the shareholders expense.
> With the NBN the Government will be supplying the secure infrastructure that is required(as it should be) not the Telstra shareholder.
> Telstra will be leasing out it's exchanges and infrastructure to the government to provide the secure service. Telstra will then be able to compete with the other users eg Optus, to supply retail services at competitive prices with a much better and far reaching wireless network.
> I can only see upside for Telstra with the burden of the Universal Service Obligation being lifted and the dying copper network being taken over by the Government, leaving Telstra with the best wireless network and leasing it's infrastructure for ongoing income. $h!t it has been a long time coming but maybe the outcome will have been a torturous but excellent result.



.

Well a couple of months in politics is a long time, but I still feel whoever gets in will have to continue to some degree with the NBN. As I stated in the earlier post, wireless is very hard to secure, business is wanting to move more data electronically not in hard copy, Government has to be able to monitor internet activity for security reasons. Therefore even if there is a change of Government I think it will go ahead (Libs will be told), time will tell, these are only my personal thoughts.

By the way Julia can you let me know where I can pick up 8% on cash.


----------



## Julia (23 August 2010)

sptrawler said:


> .
> By the way Julia can you let me know where I can pick up 8% on cash.



Sorry, sptrawler, I doubt you'll find it now.  I have that for a five year term with SUN who were not advertising it, but who happily agreed when I asked them to match what Westpac were offering about six months ago.   Even then, it was a high rate, and obviously only applied from those banks who were anxious to shore up deposits at the time.

And before anyone suggests it's unwise to tie up funds for five years, I'll say that there is a proportion of my SMSF which I always keep in cash, and I'm more than happy to be getting 8% on it.

One thing I really would say, though, is to never be shy about asking a bank for a better rate than they are advertising.  I've only once been turned down doing this (by CBA).  Usually they seem happy to meet what their competitors are asking.


----------



## sptrawler (23 August 2010)

As per usual Julia, you are moving on light feet, while I plod on. 8% for 5 years when the market is treading water is a good move, especially in a low tax vehicle.


----------



## noie (24 August 2010)

malachii said:


> Show me the last earnings results that didn't cause a drop.  It has been dropping after earnings results almost consistently since it was $9 something.
> 
> malachii




Well that is kinda my point.. 
30/06/2010 IS the first time we have not seen a decent drop that satys down after a new balance sheet: close at 3.25 ,carried on for 40 days then election faf, has beaten it with a stick.


----------



## malachii (24 August 2010)

noie said:


> Well that is kinda my point..
> 30/06/2010 IS the first time we have not seen a decent drop that satys down after a new balance sheet: close at 3.25 ,carried on for 40 days then election faf, has beaten it with a stick.




G'day Noie,

Not sure what you mean about staying up for 40 days.  Financial results were released 12th Aug and shareprice got canned 12th Aug - The market reacted as soon as the results were released.  It had nothing to do with election.

malachii


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## BrightGreenGlow (25 August 2010)

sptrawler said:


> As per usual Julia, you are moving on light feet, while I plod on. 8% for 5 years when the market is treading water is a good move, especially in a low tax vehicle.




Are you being sarcastic Sptrawler? As anyone would know on a good wage $100k+ that bank interest is crap due to the tax. Unless you have houses to rent I guess.


Anyways.. who is thinking of buying TLS now? $2.77 screams cheap. Surely it wouldn't dive much further?? or... ???


----------



## Julia (25 August 2010)

sptrawler said:


> As per usual Julia, you are moving on light feet, while I plod on. 8% for 5 years when the market is treading water is a good move, especially in a low tax vehicle.






BrightGreenGlow said:


> Are you being sarcastic Sptrawler? As anyone would know on a good wage $100k+ that bank interest is crap due to the tax. Unless you have houses to rent I guess.



john, if you'd read sptrawler's post properly you'd note his reference to a low tax vehicle.   If the interest is earned in a SMSF in pension phase there is no tax paid.  Obviously, also, someone in such a tax environment is unlikely to still be employed at $100K+.



> Anyways.. who is thinking of buying TLS now? $2.77 screams cheap. Surely it wouldn't dive much further?? or... ???



Hah!  That's what thousands of investors said as they hung onto their ABC Learning, and various other downtrending companies, while they watched them disappear to nothing.  Not saying that will happen with TLS, of course, but to say anything can't fall further is a bit like saying you bought something because you HOPE it will come right.


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## BrightGreenGlow (25 August 2010)

Julia said:


> john, if you'd read sptrawler's post properly you'd note his reference to a low tax vehicle.   If the interest is earned in a SMSF in pension phase there is no tax paid.  Obviously, also, someone in such a tax environment is unlikely to still be employed at $100K+.
> 
> 
> Hah!  That's what thousands of investors said as they hung onto their ABC Learning, and various other downtrending companies, while they watched them disappear to nothing.  Not saying that will happen with TLS, of course, but to say anything can't fall further is a bit like saying you bought something because you HOPE it will come right.





Ahh so ur retired Julia? 8% is alll good then  I guess i mean TLS is worth far more than where it is at the moment, its all this government uncertainty.


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## sptrawler (25 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Are you being sarcastic Sptrawler? As anyone would know on a good wage $100k+ that bank interest is crap due to the tax. Unless you have houses to rent I guess.
> 
> 
> Anyways.. who is thinking of buying TLS now? $2.77 screams cheap. Surely it wouldn't dive much further?? or... ???




Not wanting to be funny johnkenndal, but my late father in law once gave me some great advice, you have one mouth and two ears use them accordingly. I have watched the forum for a long time and tend to think Julia adds a lot of sense to a sometimes over excited comentry.


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## malachii (25 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Ahh so ur retired Julia? 8% is alll good then  I guess i mean TLS is worth far more than where it is at the moment, its all this government uncertainty.




Not trying to be a smart ar$e here but why is it worth more?  A company that is in decline and has been for years.  A company whose profit is getting smaller every year.  A company whose customer base is shrinking.  A company that has to borrow funds to pay for its dividend.  A company in a very capital intensive industry.  A company that is a political football in a very politically unstable environment.  I know it looks cheap but is it?  On what basis can you say it is worth far more?  Every time it comes out with a report - the share price drops lower and people say it's a bargain.  The price trickles up a bit until the next report and then it gets smacked down even lower.  This cycle repeats itself every 6 months.

Like I said - I know it sounds like I am being a smart ar$e but really I want to know where other people can see value that I cant.

malachii


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## sptrawler (25 August 2010)

Well Malachi, Telstra , as you say is a political football, regulation cramps its earnings, everyone knows this. But they still pull in billions of dollars because they own what is required to provide business and the general public what they want, communication. The more the Government interferes the more sovereign risk escalates, this has been brought more to the fore by the last Government. I think the only thing the last Government did right was relieve Telstra of the public obligation and service requirement, with the NBN.
I suppose the punters see a company with $6b of free cash flow as not bad. You would say the banks earn that, but if the Government suggested a super profit tax on them they would crash. If China turns around and has it's own financial crisis, all of a sudden B.H.P go back to $20 a lot of junior miners become .com companies again. So therefore it boils back to peoples perceptions of value. Some people believe that Telstra has an infrastructure that is worth something, because everywhere you look people are using mobile phones. Telstra is the owner of the background infrastructure. What does Woolies own?
The only thing keeping Tesltra's share price down is Government, through the ACCC and the general public is getting fed up with it. Telstra bashing while a lot of Aussie companies are being bought out by overseas multinationals is becoming political suicide. The public are a lot more informed these days, that is what T.V does. 
To put it another way if Telstra said we are shutting down for a day, there would be a state of emergency and an emergency sitting of Parliament. If Woolies said the same everyone would say Oh well i will shop at Coles or I.G.A or the delhi or Safeway or 7/11


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## Julia (25 August 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I guess i mean TLS is worth far more than where it is at the moment, its all this government uncertainty.



Why is the currently depressed SP just due to the political uncertainty?
If that were the case, the downturn would not have been strongly under way since long before the election.



sptrawler said:


> I suppose the punters see a company with $6b of free cash flow as not bad. You would say the banks earn that, but if the Government suggested a super profit tax on them they would crash.



I'd bet my last dollar on a super profit tax never, ever applying to the banks.
Even if it did, it would only be passed on to customers, and governments know this.  Completely counterproductive imo.



> So therefore it boils back to peoples perceptions of value.



And here you have the essence of this whole discussion.
We all know the SP is a consequence of market sentiment.  Nothing more complicated than that.  And it's a self-perpetuating concept.  
So you can have the best managed company ever, with apparently solid fundamentals, but if the market doesn't believe in it, you will simply not see the SP rise.


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## sptrawler (25 August 2010)

touche I agree the Banks are are really above Government interferance, as was proven in the G.F.C . 
However the fact remains that the Telstra network is critical infrastucture (until new technology takes over) and the Government can't keep applying restrictive legislation to Telstra to allow competitors to free load. Well i suppose actually they can but as i said it is becoming more and more politically charged due to the fact Telstra is loosing market share. Therefore they put less money into upgrading the critical infrastructure, which in turn results in a poorer service. This then comes back on the Government because the service is declining due to lack of spending which is due to ACCC reducing the return on investment by Telstra.
That is why the Government has to replicate the system or compensate Telstra to improve it


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## boofhead (25 August 2010)

Why do people say the competition freeloads off Telstra? Surely wholesaling at higher prices than what it retails suggests competition is paying more than the consumer.


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## sptrawler (25 August 2010)

Actually boofhead, when Telstra was floated they had a monopoly, legislation was passed to stop Telstra offering deals as cheap as any entrant to the market. This was done to encourage entrants to the market and that is understandable. However it is now getting to a point where the legislation needs to be relaxed, as Telstra has lost over 50% of it's market share yet is the company that is expected to upgrade the system for the other multinational carriers. They pay a pittance to compensate Telstra for providing Australia wide communication infrastructure


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## sptrawler (25 August 2010)

Julia said:


> Why is the currently depressed SP just due to the political uncertainty?
> If that were the case, the downturn would not have been strongly under way since long before the election.
> 
> 
> ...




And for my last comment on Telstra I will use Julias' last  paragraph above. It is hard to change market sentiment


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## boofhead (26 August 2010)

sptrawler: Telstra pricing for ADSL and that of competition suggests Telstra has good markups. IT also appears that the Telstra wholesale charges can be a significant part of the cost for competition. International traffic is cheaper with expensive submarine cables.

The current system sees competition install DSLAMs where profitable, compete with Telstra's recently competitive plans, make profits and DSLAMs are paid for within a 2-3 years. That would suggest with Telstra's previous pricing the DSLAM buildout would already be paid for.

Some of Telstra's issues comes back to it appears they only competed against Optus and bundling of everything. Meter uploads. Trying to use only media content and not services for value adding. Customer support issues. If you're planning on getting large overall marketshare you're going to have a lot of customers that know little about technical aspects of broadband and trouble shooting. Offhshoring support = visible cost savings but it turns people away. Accent issues do not help support issues.


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## BrightGreenGlow (27 August 2010)

Julia said:


> Why is the currently depressed SP just due to the political uncertainty?
> If that were the case, the downturn would not have been strongly under way since long before the election.




The downturn was always the political uncertainty.... we were going to the polls every few days lol....


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## sptrawler (7 September 2010)

Well boofhead, now the election is settled, we can get back into it. I noticed the other day in one of the national papers, a Telstra exchange is being pulled down to build a hospital. The "competition "is screaming, what about our equipment it is set up to freeload on the copper network and now all the infrastructure is changing to fibre. Guess the other providers will have to start and spend money on fibre compliant freeload instead of copper freeload(thats gonna cost). I bet you a pound to a pinch of $#1t Telstra has no problems converting to fibre.:


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## boofhead (8 September 2010)

I'm sure the exchange issue will be brought up in federal parliament. Within 8 years the competitors will have access to the fibre as long as Labor can hold on. I'm sure ACCC and other authorities will have their bit to say too. Pressure will be put on Telstra to open it up to competition and possibly have fibre deployments regulated as a means to stop Telstra from damaging competition.


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 September 2010)

Sure the government welcomes cheaper communication prices for it's people to gain support however why continue to crush an Australian company over the likes of foreign owner entities?


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## boofhead (8 September 2010)

Foreign? AAPT is crumbling. Optus/Singtel seems to be the only major international to gain from it. Much of the other competiton is Australian owned. Oh, forgot about Primus. Seems the masters are killing something that has so much more potential.

Telstra's pain comes party because of self infliction but mostly how in the past the political masters were more interested in rhetoric. The privatisation and legislation was designed to try and not properly do anything about telecommunications to look after Telstra. Unfortunately we can't play out alternative realities if different approaches were taken from retaining full public ownership to full own open slather competition.

In the short term the fibre replacing the exchange with copper relives the Optus + Telstra cable rollout if competition want access to the same customers. Duplication.


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## sptrawler (8 September 2010)

Telstras problem is to convince the general public they are now a reasonably priced alternative. If they can do that and stay under the ACCC radar they are on a winner. 
They will no longer be the wholesaler but will still recieve rent for the wholesale infrastructure. Also now that the deal with the independants requires the NBN roll out to start in the regions, means the loss of Telstra fixed line customers will be slower. I would think their shareprice will head up to $3.40 again quite quickly.


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## malachii (9 September 2010)

sptrawler said:


> Telstras problem is to convince the general public they are now a reasonably priced alternative. If they can do that and stay under the ACCC radar they are on a winner.
> They will no longer be the wholesaler but will still recieve rent for the wholesale infrastructure. Also now that the deal with the independants requires the NBN roll out to start in the regions, means the loss of Telstra fixed line customers will be slower. I would think their shareprice will head up to $3.40 again quite quickly.




Head to $3.40 based on what - that they will lose money slower???????? 

malachii


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## Boggo (9 September 2010)

malachii said:


> Head to $3.40 based on what - that they will lose money slower????????
> 
> malachii




They are going to install fibre and then dig up the (originally taxpayer funded and handed to them on a platter) copper and sell it.
That's their best chance of making a buck.
Only potential problem is that you will have to bid for it via a call centre in India or Malaysia but they will assure you that it will be delivered within three working days


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## sptrawler (9 September 2010)

With the N.B.N taking over the cost of rolling out cable in greenfield sites and carrying the cost for rural roll out. Telstra not having to fund the universal service obligation and still retaining the higher margin high population areas while loosing the low margin rural, low density areas first. One would think that Telstras costs should drop faster than revenues thereby improving the net bottom line. 
Time will tell, having the dearest plans and still making $3.8b profit and a P.E of 9 with a dividend of 10%, should attract some interest. The test will be how Telstra drops prices without loosing margins and still keep the ACCC onside. The thing in their favour is the Optus network is bogged down with all the other providers piggy backing on it. Optus wireless is useless during peak times see what happens if Telstra is allowed to offer competing deals.
As I said time will tell.


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## WMD (9 September 2010)

sptrawler said:


> With the N.B.N taking over the cost of rolling out cable in greenfield sites and carrying the cost for rural roll out. Telstra not having to fund the universal service obligation and still retaining the higher margin high population areas while loosing the low margin rural, low density areas first. One would think that Telstras costs should drop faster than revenues thereby improving the net bottom line.
> Time will tell, having the dearest plans and still making $3.8b profit and a P.E of 9 with a dividend of 10%, should attract some interest. The test will be how Telstra drops prices without loosing margins and still keep the ACCC onside. The thing in their favour is the Optus network is bogged down with all the other providers piggy backing on it. Optus wireless is useless during peak times see what happens if Telstra is allowed to offer competing deals.
> As I said time will tell.




Telstra's fix-line margin will shrink as NBN rolls out, mobile network doesnt have the scale advantage nor the cash flow contribution as the copper network. Competition will be fierce in broadband, telephony and media... Add to that D/E at 100... uncertainty around the entire industry... It is really hard to get excited about Telstra, nor can one imagine the dividend can be maintained at current levels.


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## Boggo (10 September 2010)

Roger Montgomery has an interesting view and (accurate ?) valuation on TLS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLXCTxsmGYg&feature=related

and

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znEo2OXl_fU&feature=related


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## nulla nulla (11 September 2010)

The share price is hard to follow atm. I can understand the price being pushed down on the back of the forecast revenue down grades, due to drop off in fixed line income streams. Also the recent uncertaintity of the federal election outcome and the future of NBN roll out didn't help. 

However the election is over and there is no reason to consider that the Labor government can whelch on the $11billion deal. This combined with the float off of Soufun Holdings P/L with a potential realization to tls of between US$400 million to US$425 million makes me think tls will be very cashed up in the near future.

It remains to be seen whether this cash will be used to:

1. Retire debt;
2. Go on an acquisition splurge;
3. Do a share buyback; and/or
4. Make a special div to share holders. 

I highly doubt option 2. I suspect option 1 and/or option 3 are the more likely outcomes although it would be good to see them do a special div to return some of their surplus cash to shareholders.

The retirement of debt would have the benefit of reducing operating finance/interest cost and in turn would improve the earnings per share for share holders and help maintain dividends. It wouldn't hurt tls to let the public know their intentions, which inturn could help slow the decline in the share price.


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## BrightGreenGlow (15 September 2010)

From all reports from colleagues and friends Telstra has improved their customer service in leaps and bounds. I know for a fact that Vodafone has stuffed me around for the last time and I'll be switching to Telstra when my plan runs out. Im doing this for two reasons.

1. TLS mobile plans have dropped and are more competitive. This is a fact.
2. Their NextG service dominates all regions outside of capital cities.

I believe because of their far superior mobile network TLS will gain profits from new 'fed-up-with-2nd-rate-providers' mobile customers transferring to TLS. Once the NBN is finalised and signed surely the SP will rise like it did a few months ago when the announcement header was put to the media.

Digital media (foxtel) will only grow in popularity and if TLS has somehow drop their margins I don't see why TLS in a years time wouldn't be a $3.50 cheap share.

Oppinions? 

Also, when do you guys think the NBN final signing will take place?


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## nulla nulla (17 September 2010)

Long as I remember The share price has been coming down.
Clouds of myst'ry pouring Confusion on the ground.
Good men through the ages, Trying to find its worth;
And I wonder, Still I wonder, Who'll stop the fall.

(with thanks to Credence Clearwater Revival: "Who'll stop the rain").

Closed tonight on $2.75, starting to ask myself "How low it can go, or can it bounce from here?"


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## nulla nulla (21 September 2010)

This might help explain some of the recent share price drop.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/future-fund-hedges-its-bets-20100920-15jq0.html

"THE Future Fund has plunged almost $10 billion, or 15 per cent of its assets, into a suite of hedge funds in the United States in an effort to diversify overseas and away from its dominant holding in Telstra.

The fund, which invests superannuation for government employees, appointed nine hedge funds in the US and a boutique hedge fund in Britain to manage $9.8 billion last financial year, up from an allocation of $2.6 billion in June last year.

More than 15 per cent of assets are now invested in the ''alternatives program'', which the fund describes as ''[using] skilled managers to take advantage of capital scarcity and market inefficiency''.

Overall, the Future Fund generated returns of 10.6 per cent in the past year.

*It also sold down its stake in Telstra from 16.4 per cent to 10.9 per cent last month*."


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## nulla nulla (21 September 2010)

The day started well with the share opening at $2.78 then started into $2.79 but then  it became a bit like "the word had got arround, the colt from the future fund had got away" and the sellers jumped in pushing the price down to close at $2.72. 

Mr Murray wants to spread his risk and diversify his portfolio. Understanderbly he needs to cash out of some shares and then buy into others. However you have to question the way he has gone about it. 
Seems to me, that passing large parcels of his portfolio to U.S. hedge funds to sell and replace with "stressed shares" seems like the super funds lending the shares out for the  hedge funds to short the market down, buy back at a lower price, then pocket the difference and return the lower valued shares to the super funds.
The U.S. hedge funds probablty can't believe their good fortune.

Of course as soon as it becomes public that the super fund has reduced their holding from 16% to 10%, the rest of the public wants to bail out as well. No wonder the price tanked today and will  probably drop again tomorrow.


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## polska (21 September 2010)

great high dividend stock good old telstra, but will fall to 2.50 in my honest opinion, then i may have a look at it


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## sptrawler (21 September 2010)

Well it will be interesting Singtel dividend 4.7 and p.e of 12.8.   Telstra div 10.4 and p.e of 8.6. If polskas right it would be an interesting dividend.


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## Boggo (22 September 2010)

Trying to make some sense of it from a charting viewpoint (apart from the obvious).

It has overshot the 1 = 1 from the previous significant high although it did hesitate in that area for a while.

Next level then may be an expansion to the 1.272 area around 2.60.

Re the dividend, if the stock price drops and the dividend stays at the same $ value then the dividend will always look (misleadingly) good, a bit like peeing in a wetsuit, initially you get a nice warm feeling but then reality sets in 

Just my 

(click to expand)


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## outback (22 September 2010)

Why do you say misleading? 10% plus dividend yield is good. Isn't it?  Or have I missed it again?


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## Boggo (22 September 2010)

outback said:


> Why do you say misleading? 10% plus dividend yield is good. Isn't it?  Or have I missed it again?




Assume a 28c annual dividend (2x14).

Stock price $2.70 = yield of 10%
Stock price $8.00 = yield of 3.5%

Which would you rather have, TLS at $8.00 or at $2.70 (price you bought at being a variable of course)

Another chart view below...

(click to expand)


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## drsmith (22 September 2010)

The future fund sold down its stake in Telstra from 16.4 per cent to 10.9 per cent in August 2009, not last month.


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## BrightGreenGlow (22 September 2010)

Well once again TLS is making me cry lol..... Soo many sellers. People must be seeling out and just running with a big loss...

Was just on the business channel and an analyst from Macquarie said negotiation between TLS and NBN were nearly finalised. Said $2.65 could be a great BUY depending on result... Wouldn't imagine it being a bad result for TLS... but who knows


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## flee (22 September 2010)

Sound fundamentally, and would've assumed that Labor and the NBN getting into power would've been good for Telstra... yet investors are still selling out?


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## outback (22 September 2010)

Boggo said:


> Assume a 28c annual dividend (2x14).
> 
> Stock price $2.70 = yield of 10%
> Stock price $8.00 = yield of 3.5%
> ...




Ahhh I understand your worms now. Our 10% yield is of course dependant upon buy price, but buying now means we receive that, if TLS goes to $8.00 I'll take the 3.5% yield and worry about the CGT on the 300+% I made on the deal.


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## nulla nulla (22 September 2010)

drsmith said:


> The future fund sold down its stake in Telstra from 16.4 per cent to 10.9 per cent in August 2009, not last month.




The link I posted above was a current newspaper article that indicated the future fund sell off was last month.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/futur...920-15jq0.html


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## nulla nulla (22 September 2010)

outback said:


> Ahhh I understand your worms now. Our 10% yield is of course dependant upon buy price, but buying now means we receive that, if TLS goes to $8.00 I'll take the 3.5% yield and worry about the CGT on the 300+% I made on the deal.




There is a very unreliable assumption here that telstra will continue to pay $0.28c per annum dividend. Particularly after the Chairman advised that they would have difficulty maintaining the dividends at the current level.

Also, how long since tls was $8.00? If it can get back to $3.36 I will be happy.


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## shinobi346 (22 September 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> The link I posted above was a current newspaper article that indicated the future fund sell off was last month.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/futur...920-15jq0.html




Quoting your article:

"Overall, the Future Fund generated returns of 10.6 per cent in the past year.

It also sold down its stake in Telstra from 16.4 per cent to 10.9 per cent *in August 2009.*"


If I get $2 back I will be happy.


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## Julia (22 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Well once again TLS is making me cry lol..... Soo many sellers. People must be seeling out and just running with a big loss...
> 
> Was just on the business channel and an analyst from Macquarie said negotiation between TLS and NBN were nearly finalised. Said $2.65 could be a great BUY depending on result... Wouldn't imagine it being a bad result for TLS... but who knows



So what's your plan here, John?  Do you have a price at which you will accept the loss and sell?  Or do you continue to watch it fall, while *hoping* it will eventually recover?

Why/when did you buy it, and what was your plan at that time?


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## laurie (22 September 2010)

outback said:


> Ahhh I understand your worms now. Our 10% yield is of course dependant upon buy price, but buying now means we receive that, if TLS goes to $8.00 I'll take the 3.5% yield and worry about the CGT on the 300+% I made on the deal.




Why is everyone quoting 10% yield! its approx 15% allowing for franking credits

laurie


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## So_Cynical (22 September 2010)

laurie said:


> Why is everyone quoting 10% yield! its approx 15% allowing for franking credits
> 
> laurie




The market would seem to be pricing in a fall in dividends, perhaps getting a little carried away...perhaps not.

Time will tell.


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## Boggo (22 September 2010)

When a stock is falling then paying dividends just adds to the pain, and 100% franking further adds to it.

When TLS pays a 14c dividend each share is effectively worth 14c less, add approx another 4c to that for the tax they have paid (30%) and each share is worth around 18c less in rough figures.

SRL went ex dividend yesterday, it could absorb that as its in a climb and it has proven that by closing higher today just one day after going ex.

The only stock worth getting a dividend on is one that can absorb the payout and resume its upward trend.

If you hold the likes of TLS in a SMSF then there is an advantage in the 100% franking (ie 30% paid) as you get a 15% tax credit for the super fund.
If a stock is falling however it is still false economy to even consider the perceived benefit of the dividend (and the franking credit).

I don't have the figures in front of me for SRL but I think their dividend yield is only around 2.8%, I know which one I would rather be holding, compare both charts and tell me which you would rather be holding.

Sorry if I seem to be too matter of fact about this but if you want to make a squid there is no place for sentiment when it comes down to this scenario and judging by the selling off that's going on TLS I am not alone in that method of thinking.

Having said all of that, at some point it will bottom and turn up, until then...


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## laurie (23 September 2010)

Well its horses for courses Telstra is not a growth stock just a cash cow that pays dividends and if Telstra falls further that return will grow again.I will get some more if it bottoms out at $2.60 and starts to turn up but one has to be sure its not a dead cat bounce  

laurie


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## nulla nulla (23 September 2010)

shinobi346 said:


> Quoting your article:
> 
> "Overall, the Future Fund generated returns of 10.6 per cent in the past year.
> 
> ...




You are right. The link to the article now shows that the sell down took place in "...August 2009". 

However, when i made the initial thread post, I posted the http link and cut and pasted the quote directly from the article. It would appear that the article has since been edited. 
I will see if I can recover the paper from the recylce bin to see what went to press on the day.


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## nulla nulla (23 September 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> This might help explain some of the recent share price drop.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/future-fund-hedges-its-bets-20100920-15jq0.html
> 
> ...




The above quote was cut and pasted to the thread, from the linked article,  shortly after I read the article on the front page of the "Sydney Morning Herald - Business Day" section on 21 September 2010.

I have retrieved the BusinessDay section for 21 September 2010 from the recycle bin and it definitel went to post claiming *"It also sold down its stake in Telstra from 16.4 per cent to 10.9 per cent last month".*

This is interesting, not so much that the online article has since been edited/corrected, but because (imo) it is likely that the media allegation that the future fund was selling down "last month"  would have contributed to the sell down this week also.


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## Frank D (23 September 2010)

*Telstra*

Timeframe support on TLS @ 2.46

'Bear trend' will only be over once price is trading above the Primary trend 50% level.

That level is defined by the Yearly 50% level in 2011 (currently 2.98)


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## alphaman (23 September 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> This is interesting, not so much that the online article has since been edited/corrected, but because (imo) it is likely that the media allegation that the future fund was selling down "last month"  would have contributed to the sell down this week also.



Hard to say. People who can really move markets definitely would know that was a mistake. Retail investors might have got fooled, but they are not influential.


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## BrightGreenGlow (25 September 2010)

Article from The Australian... The quote the NBN deal being worth 90c+ SP jump.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-near-record-low/story-e6frg8zx-1225929099447


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## nulla nulla (26 September 2010)

Good article. I like the idea of $0.90c upside to the current share price. One thing about the high recent turnover is that for every nervous seller there is an optimistic buyer.


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## BrightGreenGlow (26 September 2010)

This is true. Hopefully we will get an NBN deal and yeah to sell one must buy!


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## drsmith (26 September 2010)

The 90c potential upside is known to the market and easy to calculate.

If it goes ahead, the NBN deal is worth $11bn to Telstra which in turn has ~12.5bn shares.

That's 88c per share.


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## So_Cynical (26 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Article from The Australian... The quote the NBN deal being worth 90c+ SP jump.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-near-record-low/story-e6frg8zx-1225929099447




Interesting that Telstra have lost half a million shareholders...we should probably keep in mind that we are now 13 years on from the T1 float and there's been alot of change in Telstra over those years....perhaps with there new CEO and other management changes, NBN deal, Growth of smart phones and next-G etc...it mite be time to take a fresh look at Telstra. 



drsmith said:


> The 90c potential upside is known to the market and easy to calculate.
> 
> If it goes ahead, the NBN deal is worth $11bn to Telstra which in turn has ~12.5bn shares.
> 
> That's 88c per share.




But is it really priced in? i very much doubt that it is.


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## skc (27 September 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Interesting that Telstra have lost half a million shareholders...we should probably keep in mind that we are now 13 years on from the T1 float and there's been alot of change in Telstra over those years....perhaps with there new CEO and other management changes, NBN deal, Growth of smart phones and next-G etc...it mite be time to take a fresh look at Telstra.
> 
> 
> 
> But is it really priced in? *i very much doubt that it is.*




I suppose you mean that you doubt that it *isn't *priced in? Probably not fully priced in would be my guess due to the uncertainties. But I have to say, with so so so much negativity out there on TLS - it's due for a rally soon...

The decline in number of retail shareholders is not unexpected. I did this analysis some years back on major public floats and the number of shareholders always decline rapidly. You can get shareholder numbers from annual reports to verify yourself. QAN, AMP, IAG etc will all show the same picture. TLS will be more confusing due to the multiple tranches.


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## oldblue (27 September 2010)

oldblue said:


> The market, on the other hand is wary about what effect increasing govt regulation might have on TLS. Every right to be concerned, IMO, considering recent past and similar heavy handed interference of telcos in Britain and NZ, just to mention a couple.




I posted this back in April and see no reason to change my view.

TLS is still unattractive to me, particularly when there are plenty of other well performing  investments with far less regulatory and technology risk.


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## nulla nulla (27 September 2010)

drsmith said:


> The 90c potential upside is known to the market and easy to calculate.
> 
> If it goes ahead, the NBN deal is worth $11bn to Telstra which in turn has ~12.5bn shares.
> 
> That's 88c per share.




Hmmm....On these calculations the $400mil from the offloading of Soufun Holdings into the float would only be worth between 3 or 4 cents per share holder. Can't see them doing a special div for that.


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## So_Cynical (27 September 2010)

skc said:


> I suppose you mean that you doubt that it *isn't *priced in? Probably not fully priced in would be my guess due to the uncertainties. But I have to say, with so so so much negativity out there on TLS - it's due for a rally soon.




LOL no im suggesting that the positive upside of the NBN deal isn't priced in appropriately, without a doubt the uncertainty is priced in, perhaps over priced in....its a sideways bear market and ive found that what happens is that the uncertainty and negativity is always over priced in and tends to dominate.

Interesting to also note that Telstra's total revenue at the time of the T1 float (1997) was 16 billion, in 2001 it was 23 billion, this years total sales revenue is 24 billion...so for a company that's had its core business smashed over the last 13 years and had belligerent management and faced massive technical and logistical hurdles and ridiculous expectations from the bulk of its customer base...big picture its not doing that badly.

Worth serious consideration at these prices IMO.


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## Boggo (27 September 2010)

TLS, the facts (or a dose of reality)...

Examples of annual profits for a "cash cow" with a great dividend yield 
FY 2005 - $4.31 billion
FY 2006 - $3.18 billion
FY 2009 - $4.07 billion
FY 2010 - $3.88 billion


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## skc (27 September 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> LOL no im suggesting that the positive upside of the NBN deal isn't priced in appropriately, without a doubt the uncertainty is priced in, perhaps over priced in....its a sideways bear market and ive found that what happens is that the uncertainty and negativity is always over priced in and tends to dominate.
> 
> Interesting to also note that Telstra's total revenue at the time of the T1 float (1997) was 16 billion, in 2001 it was 23 billion, this years total sales revenue is 24 billion...so for a company that's had its core business smashed over the last 13 years and had belligerent management and faced massive technical and logistical hurdles and ridiculous expectations from the bulk of its customer base...big picture its not doing that badly.
> 
> Worth serious consideration at these prices IMO.




I think we are talking about the same thing. We both believe the 90c is not *fully *priced in - just described it from a different starting point.

The revenue is just one side of the story. You probably need to look at the industry growth and whether TLS's revenue growth was above or below industry growth rate. Personally I know I spend way more on telecommunications every month these days then I did back in 1997, but TLS is getting $0 of my revenue at the moment.


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## So_Cynical (28 September 2010)

skc said:


> I think we are talking about the same thing. We both believe the 90c is not *fully *priced in - just described it from a different starting point.




Agree



skc said:


> Personally I know I spend way more on telecommunications every month these days then I did back in 1997, but TLS is getting $0 of my revenue at the moment.




You me and everyone else spends more on telecommunications...in 13 years the pie has grown alot, while Telstra's share has remained static, however the ingredients of the pie have been changing... internet and mobile has significantly grown at the expense of PSTN...Telstra was always going to lose that fixed line revenue because it was there's to lose, so no surprises there.

One positive with Telstra is that they have been able to maintain total revenue while in transition from one dominating revenue stream to another, unfortunately and unavoidably they have taken on debt to build the best mobile network in the country, and its a given the dividend is unsustainable at current levels.

I cant help but think that for someone looking at Telstra for the first time (an outsider) could possibly see some potential for a bottom and a contrarian, great turn around story in the making....a Telco giant on the brink of a comeback.

Apparently, according to a recent thread...there's some money to be made being contrarian.


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## BrightGreenGlow (28 September 2010)

So_Cynical said:


> Agree
> 
> 
> 
> ...





This is a good point.... obviously a very very very small example but I know of atleast 5 mates who have in the last 2 months become 24mth TLS contract mobile phone users... coming from optus and Voda... In March when my contract end I'll also be on the TLS network as will my girlfriend. On top of that I know of another 5+ people about to switch to TLS due to their coverage and improved plans.

Other providers just don't cut it outside the capital cities....


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## Tatts (29 September 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> This is a good point.... obviously a very very very small example but I know of atleast 5 mates who have in the last 2 months become 24mth TLS contract mobile phone users... coming from optus and Voda... In March when my contract end I'll also be on the TLS network as will my girlfriend. On top of that I know of another 5+ people about to switch to TLS due to their coverage and improved plans.
> 
> Other providers just don't cut it outside the capital cities....




I'm going to move to Telstra when my current plan ends. Also know a few others that are planning to/already have. Same reasons as you, for the times when i am away from a capital city and can't get reception with any network.


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## jonnycage (29 September 2010)

i got back in a 2.65, and happy with that position,  will take a quick
gain if the gods allow it lol jonny c


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 September 2010)

This is from today's media release...

In the first 2 months 10/11 Telstra:
"Added 73,000 post-paid mobile subscriptions (compared to a net gain of 91,000 in 2009/10)."

So this means their mobile phone plan changes have accelerated plan growth by x4. Sounds good to me.

"Added 32,000 fixed broadband subscribers (compared to a net loss in 2009/10) and 176,000 wireless broadband subscribers (compared to a net gain of 608,000 in 2009/10)."

Another big improvement.

"Lost fewer fixed-line telephony customers than for any two-month period since 2007."

Thodey ends with ... "Telstra will be faster and more customer-centric. We will have lower costs and higher productivity. We will have sales and marketing expertise to match our network and engineering experience. And we will have capitalised on profitable new growth businesses in media, international markets and network-based applications and services"


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 September 2010)

Also on Dividends....

"“Telstra's board has always been acutely aware of the importance of dividends to shareholders. Because of our strong free cash flow, Telstra could comfortably fund a 28 cent share dividend in 2010-11,” Mr Thodey said."


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## Boggo (30 September 2010)

Is this backward thinking by Telstra management.
I would have thought that getting rid of workers would hamper their ability to go forward especially with the potential of the NBN.

The (mis)management of this dog with fleas needs to be reviewed.

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/6700...ge-telstra-to-reconsider-planned-job-cuts.htm


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## alexandro (30 September 2010)

Studying the long downward trending chart, the current fall from 3.33 to 2.66 matches a previous decline of similar size (21%). Other falls have not been this size. This current fall is up there with the biggest. Following such a big fall, there has always been a nice bounce. I am thinking there is a relief bounce coming soon. Who cares if it is a dead cat. Again, studying the chart, bounces go for around 7 trading days after which you should off-load.


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## BrightGreenGlow (6 October 2010)

Boggo said:


> Is this backward thinking by Telstra management.
> I would have thought that getting rid of workers would hamper their ability to go forward especially with the potential of the NBN.
> 
> The (mis)management of this dog with fleas needs to be reviewed.
> ...




TLS competition is heating up. Just had a chat over the phone with one of my mates.. A Telstra rep came to his house, beat his Optus plan by $1 a month (I know not much but still..) but increase his internet data to 200gb, a faster connection and free local calls 24/7.

I believe TLS are getting very competitive.... they have to be now...


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## Boggo (6 October 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> TLS competition is heating up. Just had a chat over the phone with one of my mates.. A Telstra rep came to his house, beat his Optus plan by $1 a month (I know not much but still..) but increase his internet data to 200gb, a faster connection and free local calls 24/7.
> 
> I believe TLS are getting very competitive.... they have to be now...




They are making an effort john as far as pricing etc is concerned.
I was with Optus for my mobile and Telstra for the landline (local calls only as interstate are done on VOIP).

I decided to with Telstra for a new contract for my iPhone (due to 3G coverage), a change of plan for the home phone and the two merged to one account.
Sounds simple and straightforward yes, not so, they completely cocked up every possible aspect of it, they blamed everything except Mabo for their inability to perform what they are advertising, they talked me into the setup but then it took them nearly four weeks to get it right.
Their problems apparently were because of the migrating of my accounts to to their new software.
Last week I got a bill of 5 pages for $157 that I cannot understand as it all seems to consist of debits, credits and adjustments. I though about giving it to my accountant daughter to analyse until she mentioned something in passing about issues she was having with them on behalf of a client with billing errors.

They have a long way to go john before the get it all in one pile I think, they are really going out of their way to initially accommodate new clients but when they get them is when the fertiliser impacts the mistral.


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## nulla nulla (9 October 2010)

Telstra hit $2.60 then bounced but the bounce to yesterdays close of $2.66 could prove to be a dead cat bounce while the uncerainty of the impact/outcome of NBN remains in limbo.
Volumes of turnover have dropped as the price comes down to the analyst target of $2.60. Thodey's comment that tls can afford to continue to pay annual dividends of $0.28 (franked) make tls a high yielding share with tax beneifts for longer term holders at this price level.
Thodey appears not to be being backward about comming forward with the upbeat comments at the moment. Telstra to work on reducing staff and overheads; improve orientation to customer service; clear out stupid and uncompetative fees; release of new products and going toe to toe with the oposition on pricing. 
All good news for those looking for a more competitive telstra grabbing back market share and improving profitability. As always the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.


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## Frank D (30 October 2010)

*TLS *

My preferred pattern on TLS moving down into 2.46-2.48 in October
 hasn't played out, with minor support levels coming into play @ 2.58

*I'd keep an eye on 2.72*

If trading above then my view is a 2-month wave pattern upwards
 into December's highs (target unknown as yet), and depending on the
 price action push upwards into January (possibly around $3.26+)

If TLS struggles to rise higher than 2.87 in the last month of the
 Quarter (December) then I would be reluctant to hold, especially if 
the overall Index is struggling to remain above 4582 (read Weekly Report)
 or has already reached 4900

*TIME is the arbiter of risk-reward strategies*


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## nulla nulla (13 November 2010)

Just when tls looked like it was attracting support and might wriggle back above $2.70, four days of trading saw the price pushed down to test $2.61. 

Hopefully for holders it will bounce from here. 

The rsi chart shows the price as oversold, but it would be a bold person looking for a short term trade with all the political manouvering going on in respect of NBN roll out and the ACCC giving tls a hard time with land line pricing on the now aging copper network.


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## namrog (13 November 2010)

A telstra story, I'm sure we have them about all communication companies.
About a month ago, a chap called to our house offering telstra bundle deals, I was interested as my fixed line, internet, and mobile was with 3 different providers.
Sat down for about an hour, and settled on a deal to connect all with telstra, my mobile had been with them on a month by month basis..

I explained to the chap that I ran business sometimes from home and that I had a fax and phone on the same line with a duet number, and regardless of what offer he came up with that it was essential that I keep this arrangement , he assured me there was no problem and rang his boss to confirm that I could keep the separate numbers as part of the new deal.
$ 80 per month was for line rental, so much free calls, and 100 gb per month on broadband with free connection...To be honest I'm not very tech wise these days, and whether this was a good deal or not, I'm not sure , but it was way better than what I had before by about $30 a month..
Either ways I was happy enough to have everything on the one bill.
At the same time he offered me a deal on a new I phone if I signed for 24 month on a $40 plan, and I had to pay an extra something like $60, because it was an I phone, this I didn't mind as it included net time on the phone, and also my old phone had just about done it's time , I had it for about 5 years... 
Signed all the paperwork, and was advised that there was a 10 day cooling off period.
I hadn't heard from anyone from Telstra for a month and was just about to call them as I had cancelled my net connection , when I got a call from them, the guy advised me that the bundle deal could not go ahead because of the fax and phone being on the one line, I explained to him that this had all been covered when I signed the contract, he said there was nothing he could do, except apologise for the miss information that I'd been fed. 
I did say to him that this was a legal contract that I had signed, and that I expected Telstra to uphold their end, but he said that there was nothing he could do.....
So I then asked about the mobile phone deal, and he said that this contract couldn't be honoured either as the I phone was only to be offered to new customers, I explained to him that I had gone through this with the guy doing the sales and that he once again had contacted his boss to clear everything, It was agreed that because I was on a month by month deal with Telstra, that technically I would be a new customer if I cancelled my current arrangement immediately, but this they decided wasn't necessary....
In the end I was so annoyed, that I told the guy to forget the whole deal and that  f***ING Telstra had lost me for good....
The thing that really annoys me is if the boot was on the other foot and I had something like a 24 month contract with Telstra and hadn't paid my bill, there would be all sorts of letters ariving in my post box threatening legal action, I just can't be bothered

So I'm back to square one, Does anyone here know of a communications company that can deliver a bundle including broadband 100 gig / month, mobile phone, fixed line with duet capability to run the fax, on one bill at a fair price..???

Joe..


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## alexandro (13 November 2010)

Nulla Nulla, You are right that everytime it approaches 2.70, it weakens back down. It has been weak for too long now. What is causing this extended weakness? There is something going on. It is the future fund drip feeding its selling into the system. Everytime it strengthens a little up to 2.70, 2.71 or even 2.68, the fund comes in and does its thing. Thats why the dog is struggling so hard. Up days have become really rare, even 2-3 cents is hard to come. As soon as the future fund backs off, we end up with a small up day. The fund then takes advantage and when nobody is looking, starts pushing in more sells. The funds holding was reported to be 10.6% (pre 19 October), then 10.0 and now just recently, 9.88% (now). Why the hell are you selling now Future Fund? Back off for now and let the thing recover before you push it in more. And if you know something us folk don't know, then tell us and we will sell too. Whats happened and is happening with this stock and to all its shareholders is completely unjust. The stock is copping pressure from a number of sources, all over-very extraordinary. There are people with poor abilities running the country and the company. Fix some of the contributing uncertainties for f**** sakes and do it in 7 weeks not 2 years. NBN and Conroy is crying and wants Telstra infrustructure, pay well for it punk (15B) and do the deal (2 weeks), if you don't want to pay, back off and lay off the company. The Future fund over hang is a problem, who the hell messed up they anyway? get rid of it by some well thought out arrangement (2 weeks). Telstra not customer friendly and doesn't offer plans like others, are you mad? fix it right away (3 weeks). Conroy, do you have a confidence problem where you must prove yourself and show that you can be successful in life? Go and show your skills elsewhere. Learn how to restore cars or something. Drop this communications portfolio thing. It will be an interesting AGM on Friday.


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## Julia (13 November 2010)

alexandro said:


> Nulla Nulla,   The fund then takes advantage and when nobody is looking, starts pushing in more sells.



"When nobody is looking?....."



> The funds holding was reported to be 10.6% (pre 19 October), then 10.0 and now just recently, 9.88% (now). Why the hell are you selling now Future Fund? Back off for now and let the thing recover before you push it in more. And if you know something us folk don't know, then tell us and we will sell too. Whats happened and is happening with this stock and to all its shareholders is completely unjust.



Are you even remotely serious?   The job of the Future Fund is to make money for itself, not at all to act as a benevolent society for TLS shareholders who should have exited some time ago on a price action basis.

Unjust?   What makes you think it's the duty of anyone other than yourself to look after your own interests?


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## Boggo (13 November 2010)

Julia said:


> Are you even remotely serious?   The job of the Future Fund is to make money for itself, not at all to act as a benevolent society for TLS shareholders who should have exited some time ago on a price action basis.




Agree Julia, if these people who call themselves Telstra investors actually took a leaf out of the Future Fund book then they too would be out of there.

Here are four profit figures...
FY 2005 - $4.31 billion
FY 2006 - $3.18 billion
FY 2009 - $4.07 billion
FY 2010 - $3.88 billion

The thing has a decreasing profit scale and that is after it has been handed a taxpayer built infrastructure.

Which direction do you think their share price should go each year alexandro (not which way would you like it to go) ?


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## nulla nulla (14 November 2010)

For what it is worth here is a link to the Future funds charter:

http://www.futurefund.gov.au/__data...ment_of_Investment_Policies_Sept_16_FINAL.pdf

The following is an extract of how it is required to deal with the Telstra holding:

*3.5. Telstra Shareholding
Following the Telstra 3 share offer and the transfer of the Australian Government’s
remaining shares, the Fund received approximately 2.1 billion shares in Telstra
Corporation Limited (Telstra). A set of Ministerial Directions relating to this holding
was issued on 28 February 2007. These Directions placed the shares under escrow,
subject to limited exceptions, until 20 November 2008.
The Board has managed the holding in line with the Ministerial Directions, its broader
Investment Mandate and the Act. Following the disposal of some 126 million shares
(as permitted under the Ministerial Directions) and a small further transfer of shares
from Government, the Board’s holding totalled approximately two billion shares in
November 2008.
With the expiry of the escrow period, the Board expects to reduce its holding over
the medium term with a view to maximising long term value with acceptable risk
while avoiding causing abnormal volatility in the market. Specifically, the Board will
manage the holding in a manner that:
• is consistent with the legislation and Investment Mandate;
• gives consideration, if appropriate to the rights attaching to the shares;
• takes into account the Board’s view of Telstra’s performance and prospects;
and
• reflects the market and other considerations prevailing from time to time.*

The Future Fund holding of Telstra shares is still an overhang, even though they have reduced it. Unfortunately every time they unload a significant parcel, to move their investment elsewhere, it will have a negative impact on the share price. 
The new telstra boss appears to be trying to make the company more competitive, customer orientated and come out on top of the NBN deal (if it happens). With the revised approach to new products and competitiveness, the ultimate winners will be the consumers regardless of who their carrier is.


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## nulla nulla (14 November 2010)

Boggo said:


> Agree Julia, if these people who call themselves Telstra investors actually took a leaf out of the Future Fund book then they too would be out of there.
> 
> Here are four profit figures...
> FY 2005 - $4.31 billion
> ...





Actually if you look at the results for the last 5 years, they have continued to grow the profit with the exception of the last result compared to the previous year. I haven't delved into the impact of extraordinary items (sale of assets at profit or loss and/or write down of assets). But if you were to compare price/earnings ratio's with other top 100 companies, tls would still come up favourably. Their real problem at present is market perception as to their competitiveness and future profitability.

This is a summary of Telstra's last five financial years.

                           2010$m 2009$m 2008$m 2007$m 2006$m

Sales revenue         24,813  25,371  24,657   23,673 22,712 
EBITDA(1)              10,847  10,948  10,416     9,861  9,575 
EBIT(2)                   6,501    6,558    6,226     5,779  5,497 
Profit before 
income tax expense   5,538    5,658    5,140     4,692  4,564 
Profit for the year 
after non-controlling 
interests                  3,940   4,076    3,711      3,275   3,183 
Dividends declared 
for the fiscal year(3)  3,474   3,474    3,476      3,479    4,224 
Dividends declared 
per share (cps)             28.0     28.0     28.0       28.0     34.0 
Total assets            39,282    39,962   37,921   37,837   36,208 
Gross debt               16,031    17,036   16,285   15,547  13,792 
Net debt                  13,926    15,655  15,386    14,724  13,102 
Equity                     13,008    12,681  12,245    12,580   12,834 
Accrued Capital 
expenditure                3,471     4,598    4,897     5,879     4,479 
Free cash flow            6,225     4,365    3,855     2,899     4,579 


Additionally, if you were a long term investor (rather than a short term trader) and you were confident that tls would maintain the dividend at $0.28cps fully franked, you could easily justify leveraging a large investment where the finance costs were well and truly offset by the dividend income.

Sorry but it doesn't seem to matter how I align the above information it doesn't hold the column allignment when it is saved. The link follows:

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/financial-information/financial-summary/index.htm


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## Boggo (14 November 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> But if you were to compare price/earnings ratio's with other top 100 companies, tls would still come up favourably.




The problem is that when a company becomes one of the top 100 then its real profit making race is run, the average sum result of all of the top 100  is just a bit better than holding cash.
According to Alan Kohler the ASX200 only just performs better than the cash rate.

The stocks to be investing in are tomorrow's top 100.

Piccy below if from that TLS link nulla, I have highlighted an area of it.
Below that are pics of similiar data for JBH and MND for comparison.

Those who apply fundamental analysis and see TLS as a keeper, am I missing something here.

(click to expand)


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## alexandro (14 November 2010)

Boggo, Here are the profit figures you present (and a few more for years in between that I have included) and the share price at the time. Looking at it, I think (not like for it to go) the share price should have gone each year in a direction that is certainly not in the direction it has taken. Profits in 2006 and 2007 were much lower than 2010 but share price much higher. So by presenting me with past profits and asking me where I expected the share price to go is suggesting that I should have known. Not one analyst knew and I could not have known. Looking at the numbers, you could say the share price should be anywhere between 2.96 and 4.35. I can't be and no shareholder can be blamed for not seeing it coming according to the profit numbers. Clearly the current share price of 2.60 is not as a result of past, present or 2011 profits. It is as a result of fear, uncertainty and sentiment. What is causing this fear? The items I mentioned in my previous post. The threat by Conroy to split a private company, the Future Fund over hang and not the best management (although I have respect for Thodey) and more.

year	net profit	share price at the time
2005	4.31	4.58
2006	3.18	3.50
2007	3.25	4.24
2008	3.69	4.35
2009	4.07	3.47
2010	3.88	2.96
2011	3.20	2.60


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## Boggo (14 November 2010)

alexandro said:


> Not one analyst knew and I could not have known.




As Kerry Packer said "if an analyst appears on the BRW top 100 I may start to take him seriously".

All I am trying to establish is whether you guys want to make money or pay a price so you can say you are Telstra  investors.

If you want to make money from a fundamental approach then subscribe to StockDoctor and invest in their emerging Star Stocks which is where the likes of JBH, SUL, EQN and MND just to mention a few were years ago.
(Pic below of some of their stocks that are still going well and still have good fundamentals)
Most 'investors' would never have heard of half of these !

If you are sitting around watching your money go down the gurgler while waiting for a Labour politician or Greens policy to save the day then good luck.

Just my


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## nulla nulla (14 November 2010)

Boggo said:


> The problem is that when a company becomes one of the top 100 then its real profit making race is run, the average sum result of all of the top 100  is just a bit better than holding cash.
> According to Alan Kohler the ASX200 only just performs better than the cash rate.
> 
> The stocks to be investing in are tomorrow's top 100.
> ...





Thanks Boggo, what codes did you use to post the tls table? Thanks Boggo, what codes did you use to post the tls table? (Had to make up the 75 required letters)


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## Boggo (14 November 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Thanks Boggo, what codes did you use to post the tls table? Thanks Boggo, what codes did you use to post the tls table? (Had to make up the 75 required letters)




I use SNAGIT nulla, great little program for pic etc functions.
http://www.techsmith.com/snagit/default.asp
Costs about $49 but I use it for work related tasks as well.

This is a freebie and does much the same, I am sure there are many others.
http://www.softsea.com/review/1-Screen-Capture.html


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## BrightGreenGlow (14 November 2010)

I just rang up Telstra (Bigpond) 1 hour ago. This is my experience....

The call was a billing inquiry... call was answered in 10 seconds. The guy on the other end was very helpful. Problem was solved in 2 minutes and logged. I rated his call effective and high quality...

Excellent service again Telstra.. I just came back from my girlfriend's uncles place and he just switched everything to Telstra/Bigpond and loves the service and its cheap!

Let's hope the NBN is done quickly to get the price above $3 again. 

PS: Cant wait to signup my new mobile plan with them to save more money 

Vodafone can die.


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## Bintang (16 November 2010)

Boggo said:


> I use SNAGIT nulla, great little program for pic etc functions.
> http://www.techsmith.com/snagit/default.asp
> Costs about $49 but I use it for work related tasks as well.
> 
> ...




Here is another excellent freebie 9called MWsnap:
http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html


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## BrightGreenGlow (16 November 2010)

I see Telstra gaining marketshare in the next 12 months.. if my little group of friends / family / colleagues reflect the broader picture which it is doing if you have a good at their latest mobile and bundle figures. I just paid Telstra my first ever $59.95 today! I wouldn't mind betting a NBN deal and better than expected profit (read above) is very possible.


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## drsmith (16 November 2010)

Me thinks Mr Market is betting on another profit downgrade at the upcoming AGM.

If Telstra is winning back customers, then, what about the margin ?


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## malachii (16 November 2010)

I think it is probably a pretty safe bet (the downgrade).  I cant remember an AGM without one!

malachii


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## Boggo (17 November 2010)

The reality that cannot be ignored, TLS vs ASX200.
At some point I am sure that it will turn around.

(click to expand)


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## sammy84 (17 November 2010)

Boggo said:


> At some point I am sure that it will turn around.




A touch of sarcasm there?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 At least it can't go belly up.


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## Boggo (17 November 2010)

sammy84 said:


> A touch of sarcasm there?




It does look like that sammy, it wasn't actually intended that way.

I would hope that it turns around for those that have held on because they listened to advisors or because of an "investment" approach and are willing to learn from the experience.

I think it is going to be a long time before the old style investment approach to making money comes around again, especially with the yanks spending more money on fixing up other countries than their own basket case, the europeans in a "mine is bigger than yours" competition while their economies go down the gurgler and the Chinese putting stop losses in place to save them when the rest fail.

Sure, go into it with an investment approach, but if it is costing you money or is not making money then adopt a technical approach and have an exit strategy.

I am hoping too that most of those who have followed some of the discussion on here are now more aware of the dividend yield trap that is constantly promoted by company boards and advisors.

If the sum total is a reduction in the value of your portfolio - eliminate the lazarus elements.


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## Trembling Hand (17 November 2010)

Boggo said:


> Sure, go into it with an investment approach, but if it is costing you money or is not making money then adopt a technical approach and have an exit strategy.
> 
> I am hoping too that most of those who have followed some of the discussion on here are now more aware of the dividend yield trap that is constantly promoted by company boards and advisors.
> 
> If the sum total is a reduction in the value of your portfolio - eliminate the lazarus elements.




Although to be fair to tls punters that chart should include the share price _with _the divs included. At $0.28 to $0.34 per year it nearly holds its head above water.


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## Boggo (17 November 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Although to be fair to tls punters that chart should include the share price _with _the divs included. At $0.28 to $0.34 per year it nearly holds its head above water.




A good point TH, the divs should be the icing on the cake, the cake unfortunately has collapsed.


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## nulla nulla (17 November 2010)

tls held up better than I expected today. After some more press in respect of the cost to tls of vodaphones new package, I expected tls to test $2.50.


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## Bintang (18 November 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Although to be fair to tls punters that chart should include the share price _with _the divs included. At $0.28 to $0.34 per year it nearly holds its head above water.




Trembling Hand, I'm not sure what you mean by 'nearly holds its head above water' so I decided to test the assertion. The attached chart based on my own analysis shows the value today of one dollar invested in Telstra shares at various times since August 2000. It simulates  a strategy of buying Telstra shares around one month before each ex-dividend date, which is what some punters might have done based on the usual broker mantra "buy Telstra for the dividend”.  It is a cashflow valuation, i.e. cashout is initial share purchase price, cash-in is dividends plus share disposal price at today’s price of $2.56.  Punters who bought in 2003 or 2006 might think they have just 'held their heads above water' but that would be on an undiscounted basis. The only thing that really matters is Net Present Value. Throw in a modest discount rate of 5% and it looks to me that on a historical basis punters have been guaranteed to lose an average of around 25 cents for each one dollar invested in Telstra. But maybe history is a bad guide to the future and maybe therefore Telstra is a screaming buy right now and maybe those really are pigs flying past my window.
Disclosure: I bought shares in Telstra when it was floated but off-loaded all of them when the price went over $9.00.


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## Trembling Hand (18 November 2010)

Bintang said:


> Trembling Hand, I'm not sure what you mean by 'nearly holds its head above water' so I decided to test the assertion.




My point was that since 2000 its lost about $4.50 in share price but its paid about $3.00 in dividends. Therefore the holders of TLS since then are down about $1.50 give or take a lot cus I cannot be bothered checking the actual figures and of course ignoring tax on divs.

But still no matter which way you slice the cake. I'm sure it will still leave a sour taste in ya mouth.


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## BrightGreenGlow (19 November 2010)

The AGM was held today and as I predicted in previous posts their customer base is up a less money will be lost of fixed line and mobile and bundles are on the way up nicely. TLS is currently up 7c. NBN draft hopefully by Christmas and a shareholder vote by mid 2011.

Once again they noted focus on customer service and I agree Telstra customer service is handsdown better than my experience with Optus and Voda.

Well done Telstra


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## drsmith (19 November 2010)

Reading the AGM release I notice this from John Stanhope regarding the NBN negotiations.



> We hear a number of observers suggesting that the $11b number is still open to negotiation.
> 
> So, let me be clear. As a Board, the approximately $11b is the value we believe is necessary for us to recommend our shareholders vote for our participation in the NBN in preference to other alternatives.



So, yes, it is. The nogotiations may no longer be bare knuckle fisticuffs in the street, but the arm wrestle between Telstra and the government over the final outcome is still very public and very obvious.


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## McCoy Pauley (19 November 2010)

Good work from the Future Fund.  Blanket 'no' vote on every resolution put up by the company at the AGM today.

Still holding this stock but it's difficult to maintain any optimism that Thodey and Livingstone can turn this beast around (bigger turning circle than the Queen Mary).  

I happen to work in a building which has a Telstra call centre (it's in downtown Melbourne, not downtown Mumbai).  The employees at the call centre are by far the dirtiest people in the building.  I hope that's not symptomatic of their culture and attitude.


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## nulla nulla (20 November 2010)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Good work from the Future Fund.  Blanket 'no' vote on every resolution put up by the company at the AGM today.
> 
> Still holding this stock but it's difficult to maintain any optimism that Thodey and Livingstone can turn this beast around (bigger turning circle than the Queen Mary).
> 
> I happen to work in a building which has a Telstra call centre (it's in downtown Melbourne, not downtown Mumbai).  The employees at the call centre are by far the dirtiest people in the building.  I hope that's not symptomatic of their culture and attitude.




If I read the report put out yesterday correctly, the future fund has reduced their holding to 1%. This will go some way to getting rid of the overhang of a large shareholder with such a negative attitude.


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## drsmith (20 November 2010)

The future fund has reduced its holding *by* 1%. That leaves it with about 10% of something it would prefer to wipe from its bum.


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## drsmith (20 November 2010)

A suggestion for the future fund having had a few beers. 

Use a DRP to reduce it's holding by offering existing shareholders the option of shares in leu of dividends (in part or in full). The insto's wouldn't take it up, but a top up plan for small shareholders in addition to the DRP at dividend time might help them offload a few.

Burp!

EDIT: Drink responsibly.

Burp!


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## BrightGreenGlow (23 November 2010)

Telstra up 10/11/12 cents today! Hmmm bit of news on NBN but nothing amazing I can see. Maybe a bit of anticipation? Coming closer to Christmas and a good deal I'd predict?


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## alexandro (23 November 2010)

Commonwealth analyst who a month ago downgraded TLS to a sell, today changed her mind and upgraded TLS to a hold (she couldn't resist the dividend and gave this as the reason). Also, going by the volume, fund managers who hated TLS since August are now starting to like it and going back in causing a swell. The NBN looks stalled, I would have thought this would be negative news. But all up, very amazing what has happened to the share price past 3 days. Good work.


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## nulla nulla (24 November 2010)

JP Morgan have recommended the stock as a "buy" for the first time in six years.. Price target lifted from $3.06 to $3.08 with an "overweight" rating, recommending Telstra should be be a large part of a managed fund. If the deal with NBN gets up they value the share at $3.14.

Sounds good to me, I hold and would love to see it go back over $3.00 in the short term.


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## Boggo (24 November 2010)

alexandro said:


> But all up, very amazing what has happened to the share price past 3 days. Good work.




Even more amazing what has happened in the last ten years !

Reading through some of the _fundamental_ reasons for hanging on to the likes of Telstra convinces me that the people who use the term 'Fundamental Analysis' for their reasoning seem to base it wholly on two items...

1. stock popularity (everyone has heard of them)
2. broker recommendations/valuations (who only do so called analysis on stocks that satisfy item 1)

TLS was over $9 in 2000 (now $2.75) and MND was less than $1.00 in 2000 (now approaching $17).

The dividend yield is only 5% though on MND 

That's the difference between actual fundamentals and the sum total of items 1 and 2.

My


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## Knobby22 (24 November 2010)

I stayed away because of fundamental analysis. My post was woof - see first page.

There is no growth so you are relying completely on dividends.

Unless you are retired or a super fund, I can't see any case for buying Telstra at these levels. I might reconsider below $2 if I feel they can keep market share, can't see that at the moment though.


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## BrightGreenGlow (24 November 2010)

I was aware that mobile services are on the rise???? Under $2 hey? Hmmmm....


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## Frank D (25 November 2010)

*TLS:- *

Breakout pattern @ 2.73, as per previous post.

First target reached @ 2.87 (#A)

however, profit objectives are based using the December highs (unknown as yet # C)

 or....

any further gains during the current month can be as 
high @ 3.26 (whilst above 2.87 # B)


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## skyQuake (25 November 2010)

Gap fill today too 

Might get a quick pullback?

TLS has a LOT of work to do to get back up and fill the rest of the gaps lol


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## alexandro (26 November 2010)

I hauled in $110,000 with 500,000 shares at 2.66 so I am happy. I had a feeling they were way undervalued at 2.60. Tonight I am out spending the cash.


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## drsmith (2 December 2010)

Any commercial value for Telstra in its copper ?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/telstra-coppers-worth-580m/story-e6frg6nf-1225882486737

The article above is 5-months old.


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## Knobby22 (2 December 2010)

Not really, the copper cables are quite small and the labour to witdraw them, get rid of insulation and transport them would take up most of the profit.


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## BrightGreenGlow (3 December 2010)

More news that Telstra is starting to dominate the broadband new customer share. As this articles shows wirless technology is the solution for many region people and renters.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...broadband-stakes/story-e6frg9hx-1225964763117


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## McCoy Pauley (3 December 2010)

From last night's 7.30 Report, a lengthy piece on the future of Telstra.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2010/s3083263.htm


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## ROE (3 December 2010)

Hurry up and split TLS and let the NBN building begins.

My research tell me NBN will be the best thing that happen to Telstra in
this environment.

TLS fixed broadband customers has been steady for years now, no growth here so a fix NBN wont do too much damage to Telstra.

On the other hand wireless data and broadband explode at a crazy pace

What Telstra working on is the wireless network that will beat NBN in term of price and service... people don't want mega fast broadband people want decent speed and convenient 

see the investment they spend on wireless and it paid off
it performance far far exceeding its peers..

last time I check (last week) data on an iPhone/iPad Telstra network speed is close to 10 times faster than Vofadone and I say Optus is on the same par as Vodafone

so sell NBN a whole bunch of useless Coppers a customer based that has no growth, get  a nice $14B for it ..very nice ...

Good war chest to build world class wireless network and let the cash roll in again and customers decide whether they want cheap and convenient  of wireless or mega fast, mega expensive NBN 

hang in there if you buy them around 2.64 - 2.95 there is very little down side but a lot of upside to this baby 

It is always darkest before dawn


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## BrightGreenGlow (3 December 2010)

100% agree with you ROE. Wireless is the future and Telstra is samshing the market to pieces. No one has come or will come close.


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## So_Cynical (3 December 2010)

ill quote myself from 4 pages back...28 Sept



So_Cynical said:


> Agree
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yet another bottom picked by me and not brought...very annoying.


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## nulla nulla (4 December 2010)

ROE said:


> Hurry up and split TLS and let the NBN building begins.
> 
> My research tell me NBN will be the best thing that happen to Telstra in
> this environment.
> ...





Nice post ROE. I agree with the upside. Telstra cashed up will have the financial clout to compete on any level with the other players and have the capital foundation to outlast the others in any drawn out price war. In My Opinion.

Re...."TLS fixed broadband customers has been steady for years now, no growth here so a fix NBN wont do too much damage to Telstra"....I thought I read that Telstra kept the fixed broadband customers? The security of fixed line connection for internet over wireless will see fixed arround for a long time to come. IMO.


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## ROE (4 December 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> 100% agree with you ROE. Wireless is the future and Telstra is samshing the market to pieces. No one has come or will come close.




I am a heavy user of wireless and I can tell you telstra network put everyone else to shame except the price... If they can price them correctly people will move to telstra I can say that with certainty...the network is too good and they can command a premium but not an outrageous one as in the previous years

I used to have vodafone and three and gave up on them, coverage just crab with data and can't get decent speed out of them

What do I have for wireless data...? 2 iPhone 2 iPads and a portable wireless broadband for my laptop.

Post on my iPad -


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## Trembling Hand (4 December 2010)

ROE said:


> Hurry up and split TLS and let the NBN building begins.
> 
> My research tell me NBN will be the best thing that happen to Telstra in
> this environment.
> ...




Agree, Telstra and high users of pr0n will be the only winners out of the NBN  

But,

Telstra has an internal time line for the split out around 5-9 years!! It aint gonna happen over night.

But the BIGGEST problem aint the Gov wrecking their biz or the ACCC or fixed line decline or insert the usual, customer service etc etc. Its the friggin management. They are destroyers of good will, innovation and efficiency. In a technology company!!!  The senior management has been the same monkeys in control of the above complaints for 10 years. The problems aren't getting fixed because the management is the same. 

Have a look at how many gun innovation/customer service/biz change leaders they bring from other companies every few months just under the group management level. And watch how quickly these dudes take off once they see how impossible it is to get anything done at Telstra. The culture is toxic to innovation and change..... for a consumer Tech company..... lol

Share holders are buying the management as well as the infrastructure. Arn't you fundies worried about that?? I thought it was only the dumb techies that ignored that stuff.


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## sptrawler (4 December 2010)

Oh well I haven't posted for a while on my worst performing share, so here goes.
The N.B.N is definitely the best outcome for Telstra as stated above. The real isssue now as I see it is the amount of shares on issue. Ongoing cash flows will be difficult to maintain on an earnings per share basis when they loose the high margin users on fixed line, this was going to happen anyway. I hope Telstra uses a lot of the money they get to do a buy back thereby reducing the shares on issue. As for the business they are in a stronger position now than they were pre N.B.N, they still own the backbone infrastructure and N.B.N rent it providing ongoing income. As stated above they have the best mobile network by a long way and now they are just another service provider the ACCC should get off their backs. The opposition providers are using an overloaded system and their speeds are getting slower and require a major capital spend Optus will have to pass on this cost to the second line carriers.
So even though generally, one would think, telstras income will drop it may not be as major as people think and if their are less shares on issue the earnings per share should be maintained.
Well thats what I am hoping on.


----------



## awg (4 December 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Agree, Telstra and high users of pr0n will be the only winners out of the NBN
> 
> The problems aren't getting fixed because the management is the same.
> 
> ...





Roger Montgomery stated his fundamental valuation on TLS as $2.36 a few weeks ago.

I agree with TH comments on management.

Not sure whether mainstream (not pr0n) users will need/be prepared to pay, for the speed and volume of high-volume data dowload, like T-box etc.

Someone must think they are

I can foresee that it would be totally feasible for users to have downloads in the Terabytes per month if the pace of digitilyzed entertainment and work is maintained. 

I am of the opinion that would be difficult to manage with wireless


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2010)

The idea that people are going to download movies as opposed to going to a video store is a bit like saying Libaries are going to shut down because people can download a book or supermarkets are going to be replaced by online shopping. People still like to browse before they buy and going through screen after screen to find a movie rather than walking down an aisle and glancing at covers, I think is a long way off. 
To rent a DVD costs $1-$3 and if you don't feel like it or there is something decent on free to air(that would be novel) you don't spend it. With the high speed broad band you would have to be a real movie buff if you are going to pay the line rental just to download movies. I think the consumer will still migrate to mobile phone and wireless for mobility and convienience. As things get tighter in consumer land people will become more decerning about what they spend on andd at present mobile phones are a fashion statement and a must have for the younger generation.


----------



## ROE (4 December 2010)

awg said:


> I can foresee that it would be totally feasible for users to have downloads in the Terabytes per month if the pace of digitilyzed entertainment and work is maintained.
> 
> I am of the opinion that would be difficult to manage with wireless




This population is very small, the vast majority of people using internet for paying bills, surf the web, online shopping, ebay and a host of other information related tasks that require little bandwidth.... decent speed and coverage is more important here than raw speed and mega download quota...

So they pay for convenient access to the internet rather than top speed and Terrabyte of data 

I got fix broadband I also has wireless data on iPhone and iPad and Portable Wireless for laptop.. I pay more for my wireless all together with hell of a lot less data quota and frankly I don't need a lot for the things I want to do....

I want coverage and network performance so I can access any where any time...

Buy a block of shares while I'm on holiday in QLD some where
Pay bills, check local eat out places, look up business phone number in the car etc...

I can see the day people download their movies and do all sort of hungry bandwidth stuff and fixed broadband is fine for that but wireless can serve as a compliment for fix lines , for people on the road  as well as fixed line replacement for those that are not into activities that required very very large download quota...

Enough of this debate, time to pack and go on a long holiday and let the market take care of itself have a safe xmas people


----------



## YELNATS (10 December 2010)

My wife who holds just under 1000 TLS shares yesterday received a letter from National Capital Corporation (NCC) of Loganholme Queensland offering $3.17 each for her TLS shares.

The offer says it pays 10% within 14 days and the balance of 90% within 26 weeks.

With TLS currently selling at between $2.70-$2.80 it seems like a good deal but I'm skeptical about the bona fides of the offer.

Telstra have warned about it on their website. 

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttels...ut-unsolicited-share-offers-asic-notified.xml

I don't know much about this company or how it would expect to make any money with this type of offer.

Has anyone else on ASF been approached by NCC?


----------



## poverty (10 December 2010)

YELNATS said:


> I don't know much about this company or how it would expect to make any money with this type of offer.




They pay your wife 10% up front for her shares, take those shares over to a margin loan where they can gear it up ~70% LVR.  For the cost of $317 upfront they now have over $10,000 to trade with, assuming they get a lot of suckers it could add up to a large amount.  I just made all of this up but it's plausible!

I can definitely see how long-suffering TLS holders would be soft targets for something like this.


----------



## sptrawler (10 December 2010)

They give you $317.00 for 10,000 shares you sign over the shares then they are sold on market at $2.75 each. Company goes into liquidation you take them to court for the rest off your money. Well thats my guess.


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## BrightGreenGlow (11 December 2010)

Ok.... but any news on the NBN deal by Christmas now? When can we expect it and how much do you guys think TLS would rise on a 14million deal and also recent news on TLS customers on the rise and gaining market share in the mobile and wireless internet market.


----------



## nulla nulla (11 December 2010)

YELNATS said:


> My wife who holds just under 1000 TLS shares yesterday received a letter from National Capital Corporation (NCC) of Loganholme Queensland offering $3.17 each for her TLS shares.
> 
> The offer says it pays 10% within 14 days and the balance of 90% within 26 weeks.
> 
> ...




They are probably targeting people holding less than 1000 shares, looking for mums & dads that bought in T1.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (17 December 2010)

http://www.news.com.au/money/money-...for-poor-service/story-e6frfmd9-1225971785208

Watch all the fed-up Vodafone customers join up with Telstra now.... good days indeed.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (6 January 2011)

A few more weeks and Telstra and Foxtel will seal a deal with the t-box and foxtel shows... sounds like a win for TLS depending on the deal... should be something to watch while the NBN is on hold until Mid 2011

Read more....
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ose-to-a-tv-deal/story-e6frg8zx-1225982649668


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 January 2011)

I was thinking today would anyone think about jumping into Telstra shortly for a Feb Dividend + NBN hold play?

With a dividend payment likely at 14c coming next month and a NBN deal likely to be signed off by Mid 2011 could this be a good play to get on?

On a side note everytime I walk past my local (Townsville) Telstra shop I see about 30 customers in there (90% would be new business) all the time.. I recently terminated my Vodafail contract via the Ombudsman and signed a 24month plan with Telstra. Also, a work colleague just signed the same plan with a iPhone 4 and another mate is just signing up today. Vodafail is no longer a serious competitor in Australia due to their poor coverage/service and media coverage of late.

I wouldn't be surprised if Telstra had a bit of good news coming with their mobile services and bundles for their next report. I'll track this play from today with $20,000 @ today's price of $1.78. So I have on paper 11,235 shares... let's see how they go to May 2011.

Any thoughts?

PS: Future Fund just sold down a whole 1% today and the SP rose 1c....


----------



## questionall_42 (10 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I'll track this play from today with $20,000 @ today's price of $1.78. So I have on paper 11,235 shares... let's see how they go to May 2011.
> 
> Any thoughts?




Correction: closing price is *$2*.78, not $1.78, resulting in 7194 shares. But agree, interesting play. Watching closely.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 January 2011)

Oh sorry guys. Thanks. I'll update every Friday I guess.


----------



## sptrawler (11 January 2011)

I tend to agree Telstras numbers will be picking up and the bleed to N.B.N won't be as fast as was first predicted(N.B.N are having trouble getting up to speed with installs, suprise,suprise). However Telstra still need to do something about the number of shares on issue and need to get some money from the government to do it. They made a killing when they sold Telstra so giving a bit back shouldn't hurt.
The other point that is interesting is when Telstra applied for a flat connection fee the ACCC knocked them back as being counter competition now the N.B.N is going to charge a flat connection fee on the grounds it is the only way to make remote area connections viable. So if the N.B.N falls over will Telstra have grounds to re apply?
My gut feeling is there will be a compromise situation where the N.B.N covers the high density populated areas and Telstra retain their remote infrastructure and the government gives back some of the money they stole.
We certainly are at the crossroads, the next 12 months are certainly make or break.
Well that's my 2c worth . I do hold TLS


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (12 January 2011)

A good start to my $20,000 paper holding today (up 6c ) and great market depth for the sellers which came off the back of no announcement or news.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (12 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> A good start to my $20,000 paper holding today (up 6c ) and great market depth for the sellers which came off the back of no announcement or news.




I wouldn't celebrate any short term market fluctuations in your favour or you will be forced to mourn when the market fluctuates against you.

I prefer to take the stance that market fluctuations neither make me richer or poorer, only increases in the true value of my companies makes me richer or poorer, and this is true regardless of what the companies share price does after I have bought.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> A good start to my $20,000 paper holding today (up 6c ) and great market depth for the sellers which came off the back of no announcement or news.




There was an article in the Fairfax papers regarding ongoing talks between Telstra and NBN without giving any detail away. There was also the announcement that the Future Fund has reduced their holding by another 1%.

The share price rallied touching $2.86 before being pushed back in the close. I wouldn't be surprised if the Future Fund took advantage of the price runup to unload a few more shares. The volume of turnover was up significantly on what it has been in the past week or so.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (12 January 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I wouldn't celebrate any short term market fluctuations in your favour or you will be forced to mourn when the market fluctuates against you.
> 
> I prefer to take the stance that market fluctuations neither make me richer or poorer, only increases in the true value of my companies makes me richer or poorer, and this is true regardless of what the companies share price does after I have bought.




Was only having a go at myself. The next few months will be very rocky as any TLS holder knows. Any good news is often hunted down and stabbed by the bad news.


----------



## drsmith (12 January 2011)

A formal agreement with the NBN will, in my view, result in another spike in the share price to be followed by a slower decline.

The directors will need to be successful at more than managing a business in decline for sustained improvement in share price.


----------



## sptrawler (12 January 2011)

Agree with you drsmith, with 12.5 billion shares on issue you are not going to get decent earnings per share on selling products the same as everyone else. I was a bit surprised when Telstra didn't have a tilt at "10" before Packer and the rest. They certainly need to come up with a strategy, while cash flows are good and I DON'T think Trading Post was it.
 Maybe they need to think outside the box like Wesfarmers and become a conglomerate rather than a single focus company. They at least have exposure to the whole country through their depots and exchanges, just need an avenue to capitalise on it. Who knows maybe tie up with Toll(trucking and logistics with state of the art communications and tracking). Maybe keep their copper infrastructure for dedicated use that doesn't compete with the n.b.n for example a national security network for home and business security alarm monitoring. Telstra could install a dedicated system at each exchange to send alarm messages to the nearest police station, just needs a bit of vision, I came up with this in 2 wines and 30 minutes.
While I can still edit. 
Maybe give radio stations the ability to transmit from the Telstra repeaters so that travellers can pick up radio stations all over Australia not just in built up areas. The government might even pay extra for this facility then they could broadcast emergency messages in hard to reach areas, the government has seemed to have plenty of money to screw Telstra so this should be a pitance.


----------



## Greedy_Kev (13 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I recently terminated my Vodafail contract via the Ombudsman and signed a 24month plan with Telstra.




Humm i'm also pissed at voda my area is jumping from full reception to no reception, was it hard terminating and did u get the termination fee which is the cost they incurred?

I'm thinking of joining telstra, since they would probally have the best reception, so sick of crap reception


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (13 January 2011)

Greedy_Kev said:


> Humm i'm also pissed at voda my area is jumping from full reception to no reception, was it hard terminating and did u get the termination fee which is the cost they incurred?
> 
> I'm thinking of joining telstra, since they would probally have the best reception, so sick of crap reception




No fees at all because Vodafail was breaching the contract terms. Ring the TIO or check the ombudsman website. Vodafone will then ring you and then you ask for a termination. You must call voda first before lodging a complaint to the TIO. Within 2 weeks you should be done with them.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (13 January 2011)

sptrawler said:


> Agree with you drsmith, with 12.5 billion shares on issue you are not going to get decent earnings per share on selling products the same as everyone else. I was a bit surprised when Telstra didn't have a tilt at "10" before Packer and the rest. They certainly need to come up with a strategy, while cash flows are good and I DON'T think Trading Post was it.
> Maybe they need to think outside the box like Wesfarmers and become a conglomerate rather than a single focus company. They at least have exposure to the whole country through their depots and exchanges, just need an avenue to capitalise on it. Who knows maybe tie up with Toll(trucking and logistics with state of the art communications and tracking). Maybe keep their copper infrastructure for dedicated use that doesn't compete with the n.b.n for example a national security network for home and business security alarm monitoring. Telstra could install a dedicated system at each exchange to send alarm messages to the nearest police station, just needs a bit of vision, I came up with this in 2 wines and 30 minutes.
> While I can still edit.
> Maybe give radio stations the ability to transmit from the Telstra repeaters so that travellers can pick up radio stations all over Australia not just in built up areas. The government might even pay extra for this facility then they could broadcast emergency messages in hard to reach areas, the government has seemed to have plenty of money to screw Telstra so this should be a pitance.




I don't claim to know much about this industry. All I know is in the past few months Telstra service has beaten off competition and actually won market share. There is big money in mobile device communication and I also know Telstra is the only option.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (13 January 2011)

I can't wait until the next subscription report to come out, with Telstra's new plans, change in service attitude and the failure of Voda there should be a good surprise in their Mobile share. Plus these bundles are selling really quick from what I've heard from friends/family and hopefully their DSL subscriptions will be on the increase too  .

This is a good run to the dividend too, anything above $1.92 will be a very good positive.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (14 January 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.85
Market Value: $20,503
======================
Gain since play: $503


----------



## Greedy_Kev (15 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I can't wait until the next subscription report to come out, with Telstra's new plans, change in service attitude and the failure of Voda there should be a good surprise in their Mobile share. Plus these bundles are selling really quick from what I've heard from friends/family and hopefully their DSL subscriptions will be on the increase too  .
> 
> This is a good run to the dividend too, anything above $1.92 will be a very good positive.




the fail of vodafone is definitely pushing me towards telstra, so sick of poor reception, just waiting for my contract to end soon.


----------



## Greedy_Kev (15 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> *Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
> Initial Capital: $20,000
> Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
> ======================
> ...




I can't believe u only had 20k to invest and u put it all on TLS in an industry u claim not to know alot about... i think they may do well too but its going to be a very slow and boring journey for u.


----------



## golfmos123 (15 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> No fees at all because Vodafail was breaching the contract terms. Ring the TIO or check the ombudsman website. Vodafone will then ring you and then you ask for a termination. You must call voda first before lodging a complaint to the TIO. Within 2 weeks you should be done with them.



\

can you pls supply more details about your vodafail contract termination??  Happy to receive personal message if you prefer.

We have a mobile contract with voda which also suffers from drop outs and low/no signal when inside the house, and they "sold" their infinite plan on us because of the advantages of using our mobile instead of the home phone for local/mobile calls, thereby saving us money. But of course, it is too problematic to do so where we are so we end up using the home phone anyway!


----------



## McCoy Pauley (15 January 2011)

sptrawler said:


> Agree with you drsmith, with 12.5 billion shares on issue you are not going to get decent earnings per share on selling products the same as everyone else. I was a bit surprised when Telstra didn't have a tilt at "10" before Packer and the rest. They certainly need to come up with a strategy, while cash flows are good and I DON'T think Trading Post was it.
> Maybe they need to think outside the box like Wesfarmers and become a conglomerate rather than a single focus company. They at least have exposure to the whole country through their depots and exchanges, just need an avenue to capitalise on it. Who knows maybe tie up with Toll(trucking and logistics with state of the art communications and tracking). Maybe keep their copper infrastructure for dedicated use that doesn't compete with the n.b.n for example a national security network for home and business security alarm monitoring. Telstra could install a dedicated system at each exchange to send alarm messages to the nearest police station, just needs a bit of vision, I came up with this in 2 wines and 30 minutes.
> While I can still edit.
> Maybe give radio stations the ability to transmit from the Telstra repeaters so that travellers can pick up radio stations all over Australia not just in built up areas. The government might even pay extra for this facility then they could broadcast emergency messages in hard to reach areas, the government has seemed to have plenty of money to screw Telstra so this should be a pitance.




I can't remember the name of the CEO now (I think it was before Frank Blount's time and not Ziggy, I think), but the CEO was dead keen for Telstra to buy Nine when it was put up for sale.  The board rejected the CEO's strong recommendation (probably along the lines of "we're a telco, not a content provider").  History has proven that CEO right.

Dammit, I'm going to have to find out the name of the CEO, otherwise it'll bug me.  If anyone has read _The Gatekeepers_, then the reader should know the name.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2011)

Hi McCoy Pauley, firsly you should get a signature that isn't so awkward lol.
The CEO may have been right when Telstra owned all the infrastructure and the other telcos were in their infancy. Now it is a bit different, the competition have jumped on their back and cherry picked the high population areas. Now the government who made a killing selling the infrastructure is now buying it back at about 25% of its selling cost, through the n.b.n. Who said their is only one Allan Bond in your lifetime. 
Telstra have been plundered by the government and the ACCC since they were floated and the only way I can see them not being thrown into a rehab is by the government giving enough money back to enable Telstra to reduce its shares on issue. Unfortunately I own them and I wish it was different but from memory when they were floated at around $3 the opposition hit the roof and said you are giving it away. I would like to know how many of those bought shares 

While I can still edit the post
Maybe Telstra has to fail just to prove the Government was right in privatising it.  Just a bit sad that it had to sell out the mums and dads to prove it. Just hope the new management can rise above the government and make a serious company from your investment.


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## BrightGreenGlow (16 January 2011)

Greedy_Kev said:


> I can't believe u only had 20k to invest and u put it all on TLS in an industry u claim not to know alot about... i think they may do well too but its going to be a very slow and boring journey for u.




This is paper money. Just trying to track this play. I have noticed a localized change in Telstra and while I only account for a small population I predict this is a wide spread shift in Telstra subscription rates. Only time will tell. This $20,000 paper play will record if I was correct or not. 

PS for the Vodafail users. Just got over 500kb per second download speed using a speed test with Telstra. Loving this network.


----------



## Greedy_Kev (21 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> This is paper money. Just trying to track this play. I have noticed a localized change in Telstra and while I only account for a small population I predict this is a wide spread shift in Telstra subscription rates. Only time will tell. This $20,000 paper play will record if I was correct or not.
> 
> PS for the Vodafail users. Just got over 500kb per second download speed using a speed test with Telstra. Loving this network.




haven't u heard of never keeping all your eggs in one basket. you know TLS has a debt/equity ratio of 117%! they have alot of out standing debt(bond) issues in europe that i believe alot will expire in 2-3 years time.

since u only have tls shares, ur completely exposed to the pitfalls and gains of tls.

your screwed if the NBN doesn't go through.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 January 2011)

Once again, this is only a play in a TLS specific thread. I wanted to test how the future dividend and NBN will work out. This is totally a paper plan directed at TLS as an experiment. You should really read my posts before making yourself look silly.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 January 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.79
Market Value: $20,071
======================
Gain since play: $71


----------



## nulla nulla (21 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> *Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
> Initial Capital: $20,000
> Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
> ======================
> ...






BrightGreenGlow said:


> *Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
> Initial Capital: $20,000
> Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
> ======================
> ...




Is the second post relative to the first post or do you have two paper trades in play now?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (21 January 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Is the second post relative to the first post or do you have two paper trades in play now?




Just the same play Nulla, just updating every Friday. Hope I didn't make a mistake with the calculation?

On other news... reporting is coming up in Feb... I can't wait, however, I'm not that confident as I wouldn't put money behind this play. This being said the last report was a big turn around for mobile/bigpond/bundle subscribers and with the problems of Vodafail this might even push it along a bit. Remembering that most people will sign up for a period of 24 months too.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (6 February 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.86
Market Value: $20,575
======================
Gain since play: $575[/QUOTE]

Last Fridays... the 4th.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (7 February 2011)

Today, due to Telstra's Reach restructure, Telstra will gain 50million on signing and a further 80 to 100million once it's all done.

150million maximum, small fries but better to have it than not. TLS up another 2c today and dividend coming very soon.

Also, who can forget NBN.... this is quoted from The Australian today.
"Talks between Mike Quigley and David Thodey, the CEOs respectively of NBN Co andTelstra, have been progressing well. As a result, the telco may soon announcethe final agreement on the plan to vend its cable infrastructure assets into thenew national broadband network roll-out being managed by the NBN Co entity. Thespeedy resolution will be welcomed by Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, asthe Australian Government aims to push the matter through the parliament. Thetransaction is worth about $A11bn"


----------



## McCoy Pauley (7 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Today, due to Telstra's Reach restructure, Telstra will gain 50million on signing and a further 80 to 100million once it's all done.
> 
> 150million maximum, small fries but better to have it than not. TLS up another 2c today and dividend coming very soon.
> 
> ...




Seems to me that the market is pricing in a favourable announcement from Thodey/Livingstone about the NBN deal with the Govt on Thursday, to coincide with the announcement on the first half results.

TLS has consistently guided the market to a fairly significant decline in revenue on fixed-line telco services and margins on mobile services, so they'll need to demonstrate that the margins sacrificed have been recouped through the increased marketshare in mobile phone communications.

I see Thursday morning as the crucial day.  If TLS does not satisfy the market, it could quickly re-test its all time lows.  If TLS satisfies the market, then we could see $3 in the rear-view mirror in the short term.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (7 February 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Seems to me that the market is pricing in a favourable announcement from Thodey/Livingstone about the NBN deal with the Govt on Thursday, to coincide with the announcement on the first half results.
> 
> TLS has consistently guided the market to a fairly significant decline in revenue on fixed-line telco services and margins on mobile services, so they'll need to demonstrate that the margins sacrificed have been recouped through the increased marketshare in mobile phone communications.
> 
> I see Thursday morning as the crucial day.  If TLS does not satisfy the market, it could quickly re-test its all time lows.  If TLS satisfies the market, then we could see $3 in the rear-view mirror in the short term.




This is very true, very testing times and who knows which way it will go. There last 3 month report showed excellent progress but the full results will make or break and will be very pivotal for the future and change TLS/Thoedy is aiming for.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (7 February 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Seems to me that the market is pricing in a favourable announcement from Thodey/Livingstone about the NBN deal with the Govt on Thursday, to coincide with the announcement on the first half results..




ALso the ex dividend date is approaching so it is natural to see some strength prior to that, which should be offset by some weakness after.


----------



## ROE (7 February 2011)

TLS got to be the most unloved dog in the whole ASX
but you pay a high price for cheery consensus in the stock market world
so I rather buy and wait before the cheer arrive 

Unlike the future fund I actually like what Thodey is doing.

He throw out the old guards and bring in some fresh new guard dogs .
these new guys aren't bad either..Between them they should have enough
will power to turn the ship 

Give Thodey time, he will give you the result, I'm patient I can give Thodey 3-5 years and while I am waiting eating 10% dividend isn't bad either.

Maybe Thodey will chuck us a surprise party Thursday.


----------



## Bill M (7 February 2011)

ROE said:


> Give Thodey time, he will give you the result, I'm patient I can give Thodey 3-5 years and while I am waiting eating 10% dividend isn't bad either.
> 
> Maybe Thodey will chuck us a surprise party Thursday.



My thoughts are the same. Those divi's will have paid for my stock soon. What's the saying? "The stockmarket is all about transfer of money from the impatient to the patient."


----------



## Noddy (7 February 2011)

Watching Charlie Aitken from Southern Cross Equities on Lateline Business tonight.
When asked for an opinion as to which company could surprise on the upside, he nominated Telstra.
Depends though on whether the Future Fund will stop selling their holding on market.
Have off loaded about 1% of TLS stock on the market in the last month.
IMO this is the only thing holding down the stock price.
And how many other companies will pay 10% pa ff this reporting season ?


----------



## drsmith (8 February 2011)

The following could be the reason behind the recent "slight" share price rally.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...report-pd20110207-DTREF?OpenDocument&src=hp16

On recent history, a report without a downgrade will be a suprise.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 February 2011)

drsmith said:


> The following could be the reason behind the recent "slight" share price rally.
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...report-pd20110207-DTREF?OpenDocument&src=hp16
> 
> On recent history, a report without a downgrade will be a suprise.




Yep, it would be a surprise, though Thodey has done fairly well in preparing the market for the downgrade on revenue.  The market won't want to see a decline faster than that predicted by Thodey, though.

Kohler wrote about Thodey coming back from his Christmas holidays a changed man (for the better), according to his sources inside Telstra.  Moving on the last of Sol Trujillo's guard seems to have energised Thodey to fully take control of the company, according to Kohler's article in the Eureka Report.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 February 2011)

Bill M said:


> My thoughts are the same. Those divi's will have paid for my stock soon. What's the saying? "The stockmarket is all about transfer of money from the impatient to the patient."




This is very true and since the dividend was said to be secure for another 1.5 years TLS can drop 14 +14 +14 = 42c and we all come out even steven.... but it's undervalued and change is in the air... just ring them and find out you'll actually talk to an operator within 2 minutes.

Mobile subscriptions will be something to watch for guys... also bundles slash bigbond sales! From my own small world up here in NQ I see a lot of people changing over to TLS again... just depends if it's just here or all around Australia.... Thursday should be interesting indeed.


----------



## drsmith (9 February 2011)

Profit will be within 5% of previous guidance, but not up.
Formal arrangements with NBN announced. Mostly factored into share price.
Dividend $0.14 fully franked.
Further downgrade in future financial performance.
Share price slightly lower on the close and declining over subsequent days. New low ex-dividend.

That's my guess.


----------



## sptrawler (9 February 2011)

Hope you are wrong dr smith, it would be a disaster if they are not getting any traction with stopping the exodus of subscibers. 
My gut feeling is there is a little bit of panic happening with the other carriers, they are desperate to lock people in to new 2 year contracts, also the contracts aren't as attractive. Quite a few of my aquaintances are changing to Telstra, despite me not being with them.
There is one thing for sure Thursday will set the trend for Telstras future share price, so hold your breath it should be an interesting ride.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 February 2011)

drsmith said:


> Profit will be within 5% of previous guidance, but not up.
> Formal arrangements with NBN announced. Mostly factored into share price.
> Dividend $0.14 fully franked.
> Further downgrade in future financial performance.
> ...




The NBN has not been factored in. I believe we might be an upturn.

Hope you're wrong and Im right but who knows? Cant wait till tomorrow though! Should be announced by midday???


----------



## skcots (10 February 2011)

Telstra posts 36% profit drop

http://www.smh.com.au/business/telstra-posts-36-profit-drop-20110210-1anew.html

Does not sound promising.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (10 February 2011)

Just about as expected, I think.  Sales revenue for the half was down 0.5% compared to 1H10.  EBITDA was down 12.5% for the half compared to 1H10.  TLS is certainly gaining traction in the market at the expense of margin.  Customer base for mobiles, etc, grew seemingly considerably in 1H11.

It also looks like TLS has reached a broad agreement with the Govt on the NBN, and that TLS aims to test the shareholders on 1 July 2011 on the agreement.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (10 February 2011)

Conroy has given a press conference five minutes ago confirming that a deal has been struck with TLS on the roll-out of the NBN.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 February 2011)

More interesting was they gained nearly 1 million new mobile customers and they will be money in the bank fir the next two years. Good job Telstra. Bit of a pitty they had a big spending spree last year. Good result but not the best. Also once again awesome broadband subscription rates. . Hopefully nbn deal by Oct maybe?


----------



## nulla nulla (10 February 2011)

sptrawler said:


> There is one thing for sure Thursday will set the trend for Telstras future share price, so hold your breath it should be an interesting ride.




IMO until the overhang of shares held by the Future Fund is cleared, the price will continue to be held in check.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (11 February 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> IMO until the overhang of shares held by the Future Fund is cleared, the price will continue to be held in check.




Agreed.  If you have any interest in the share market, you'd have to have been deaf over the last six months not to hear about the Future Fund's decision to sell out TLS.  Until the Future Fund completely sells out of TLS, there will be a hand-brake on whatever capital growth there might be on the company.


----------



## TheAbyss (11 February 2011)

How do you propose that a business with steadily declining profits and steadily increasing costs to obtain that business actually improve their bottom line?

Their cash cow was the fixed business which is being eroded daily, they are replacing some of this with mobile business however that is a less than loyal client base with high costs to obtain and retain those customers.

The data side of things was looking good (Nextg) but margins are low due to competition. 

Add to that the unions demands are high for the labour force that internal costs are massive when compared to other carriers. that isnt to say the unions are not necessary just that they have been adding a premium to every expense for so long now the only real way out for Telstra is to do a QR and fully privatise then sack a swag and reemploy at realistic rates and have the staff work to sustainable KPI's. 

Where do they improve their bottom line? Yes they will get a 10-14 $b windfall from their infrastructure sale via the NBN howveer that only defers the inevitable and allows the dividend to contiue for a while longer.

If you cant make similar gains with less capital risk elsewhere in this market then your eyes are closed or your fear of risk is so great you should employ a broker imo.

Death, taxes and a lower TLS share price are certainties in life.


----------



## Ian (11 February 2011)

TheAbyss

_If you cant make similar gains with less capital risk elsewhere in this market then your eyes are closed or your fear of risk is so great you should employ a broker imo._

Your comments are very interesting. Must admist I am looking at TLS right now based on the divi but would be very interested to hear any alternative options you may have. 

thanks
Ian


----------



## TheAbyss (11 February 2011)

Have a good read of this thread first Ian 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18433&page=1

Then a little light reading with Roger Montgomery - http://www.asx.com.au/resources/newsletters/investor_update/20100413_best_value_stocks.htm

Then perhaps make a choice from these 

http://australian-investing.blogspot.com/2011/01/highest-dividend-paying-stocks-in.html

Then you just have to ask yourself which ones put my capital at the lowest risk vs div yield.


----------



## Ian (11 February 2011)

TheAbyss
Many thanks. That is indeed interesting stuff. 
But as the Investment Blog spells out, TLS is one of the main dividend performing stocks. However I take your point about the mix of both growth and Divi. It's hard to tell with TLS isn't it. 
Never the less, thanks again
Ian


----------



## nulla nulla (11 February 2011)

Shot up quickly today on low volume then came down slowly on large volume. For every seller there was a buyer, hopefully the Future Fund further reduced their overhang.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (11 February 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.91
Market Value: $20,935
======================
Gain since play: $935

This is on the back of their recent subscription increases, minimal profit slump, NBN deal closing in and another massive 14c dividend. Exciting times for Telstra.

Watch for the next profit release.... 1 million mobile subscribers is massive news and has been an underrated fact of their report. Not only is this figure growing hard, the growth would generally be locked in for 2 years.  Awesome week for Telstra!


----------



## robusta (11 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> *Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
> Initial Capital: $20,000
> Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
> ======================
> ...




Things are looking better than they have for a long time for TLS but too many unknowns for my money.

Will increased market share = increased profits?

Will they stop borrowing to pay dividends?

Can the culture be turned around?

Will a change of govt honour NBN deal? - remember we have a hung parliment.

What will competition do? Sit around and let TLS steal market share?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (11 February 2011)

robusta said:


> Things are looking better than they have for a long time for TLS but too many unknowns for my money.
> 
> Will increased market share = increased profits?
> 
> ...




1. I'd like to think so. Every contact is money to Telstra not a negative. Sure the prices are low but another few million could happy and hey, that's a lot of money. Coverage is a big thing for TLS, they have a big monopoly on it and you'll notice more and more individuals and businesses using products like iPads. Telstra is the ONLY suitable choice for mobile data. Mobile data will be a big market in the future.
2. Maybe not, however I believe they will start to make more money once people realise dealing with Telstra is FAR better than Optus/3/Voda.
3. Maybe, it will take a long time. Thodey has them on track I believe.
4. Labor will control the NBN deal as government so that point was valid a few months ago but not so now.
5. People that want mobile phone/smart phones can really only pick Optus or Telstra. With Telstra only a few bucks behind the pace now; smart people will choose Telstra if they know anything about data rates and coverage.

These are sensible answers and could happen, however, most of the time people and the market is and are not sensible. What do you guys think?


----------



## Calliope (12 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> These are sensible answers and could happen, however, most of the time people and the market is and are not sensible. What do you guys think?




I am optimist for the first time in years. I got back in yesterday at $2.90. The future fund bogey-man can't hang around for ever.



> I'm actually finding it quite hard to write this however given Telstra's result yesterday I'm suggesting that investors looking for some yield and potential upside step into Telstra. One of my main rules when trading/investing is not picking up stocks that are in a downtrend - both in price and in earnings momentum. We've started to see Telstra find some price support over the last few weeks and the results yesterday suggest that earnings have now bottomed.
> 
> There are certainly still risks for Telstra and the main one here is the large overhang of the Future Fund who still owns 6.8% of the company. The Future Fund have been very transparent in their intentions to sell down that stack and in my view this would have given international hedge funds a reason to short the stock. This is now a more questionable prospect when we consider that earnings are gaining momentum and there is more clarity in its role with the NBN.
> 
> The stock continues to yield 10% FF which has been confirmed for the next two years. If the Future Fund does come out and say their 'selling has stopped' this should prompt a rally in the stock.  We're also seeing a repositioning of Telstra with a rejig of its product offering and pricing points which should drive customer acquisition




http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/BrokerCommentry/229/Morning-Note-|||-RIO-+-TELSTRA-Results-


----------



## nulla nulla (12 February 2011)

One of the things I noted in the news coverage of Thodey's presentation was his comment, that "Telstra incurs and takes to book all the costs associated with generating the additional market share at the commencement of the contracts but the revenue comes in from those contracts over the following 12 - 24 months of the contract". 
On that basis I would expect costs to be held or lower going forward as income from the additional market share offsets the expence of gaining further market share.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 February 2011)

I went into a Telstra shop today to buy a new mobile phone sim. card to notice the walls and ceiling were peeling paint like real bad. Sort of like entering a butcher shop and flies are buzzing around everywhere.  Not to mention the youth's primary concern was extracting customer dollars through "plans".


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (19 February 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.96
Market Value: $21,294
======================
Gain since play: $1,294

Another great week for telstra... bit of a pitty it fell yesterday 2c, thought it was holding. The NBN/Div play has now surpassed 14c + so once the dividend comes out hopefully it will still see a profit. Still 2 more trading days to lift the SP before the dividend date.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 February 2011)

I think you will find that tls goes exdiv on Monday 21 February. If you were planning to unload before the exdiv date, it is too late. On Monday the share price will probably fall by as much as the div and a component for the franking credit. 

Could be a trade in the bounce arround, for the brave. Could also provide another opportunity to get in, if you are confident that it will improve with the changes they are making and the NBN broadband rollout. 

Remember, if you want to benefit from the franking credit linked to the div, you need to have held the shares for 45 days before you sell.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 February 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I think you will find that tls goes exdiv on Monday 21 February. If you were planning to unload before the exdiv date, it is too late. On Monday the share price will probably fall by as much as the div and a component for the franking credit.
> 
> .




Yep, it would be completely rational to believe that TLS may fall back towards $2.75 - $2.80 over the next few days.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (19 February 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> .  Not to mention the youth's primary concern was extracting customer dollars through "plans".




I hate that, I went to Maccas the other day and it seemed their primary concern was extracting customer dollars through the provision of meals.


----------



## Boggo (19 February 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Remember, if you want to benefit from the franking credit linked to the div, you need to have held the shares for 45 days before you sell.




Only if you are claiming over $4999.99 in franking credits.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 February 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I hate that, I went to Maccas the other day and it seemed their primary concern was extracting customer dollars through the provision of meals.



 LOL  Would you like fries with that? No dough boy, just give me what I asked for please.


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2011)

Boggo said:


> Only if you are claiming over $4999.99 in franking credits.




Or if you are a share trader or a SMSF, I think


----------



## nulla nulla (20 February 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I hate that, I went to Maccas the other day and it seemed their primary concern was extracting customer dollars through the provision of meals.





Had to laugh. A quick witty response and drier than a New Zealand Cabernet Blanc. 



Wysiwyg said:


> LOL  Would you like fries with that? No dough boy, just give me what I asked for please.




Have to admit. macca's started it all with "Would you like fries with that?" Now upsizing is a standardised selling concept regardless of what you are looking to buy.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (20 February 2011)

I'd take the 14c franked dividend than selling the shares. Bring on July


----------



## nulla nulla (21 February 2011)

Did you top up on the retrace?


----------



## tothemax6 (21 February 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> 5. People that want mobile phone/smart phones can really only pick Optus or Telstra. With Telstra only a few bucks behind the pace now; smart people will choose Telstra if they know anything about data rates and coverage.



Just like to point out I have a smart phone and I'm with 3. Cheaper, unless you simply must have EDGE data rates and high quotas - i.e. you are tethering your phone to a laptop or you spend all day watching youtube on your phone.


----------



## 6figures (22 February 2011)

anyone know why TLS loss 5.4% yesterday?


----------



## Tanaka (22 February 2011)

6figures said:


> anyone know why TLS loss 5.4% yesterday?




... Yesterday was it's 'Ex Dividend Date' You can find that infomation on their website or the ASX website.


----------



## awg (22 February 2011)

6figures said:


> anyone know why TLS loss 5.4% yesterday?




C,mon champ,

you only would have needed to read the few preceeding posts to have your question answered.

TLS went ex-dividend, which means, in a flat market, that the price of the stock will fall by approximately the amount of the div...14c + the franking credit.

Yesterday was also a down day on the market.

Because TLS pays a whopper of a div, it would ususally follow this pattern exactly, unless some other factors were acting upon the SP


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (23 February 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Did you top up on the retrace?




No but I'm thinking aboutselling MAP due to cgt tax cut in half and putting that capital into TLS. I just bought more oil related stocks but to me TLS is looking very cheap at the moment. I wasn't expecting today to be a negative day for TLS. I'm guessing the FF offloaded for after the dividend and also today. I would suggest it will bottom out this week and increase again towards Late June. I'll keep tracking it as I feel next report will be very good for TLS with all those new subscriptions and maybe even more.

Have you bought in again?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (23 February 2011)

tothemax6 said:


> Just like to point out I have a smart phone and I'm with 3. Cheaper, unless you simply must have EDGE data rates and high quotas - i.e. you are tethering your phone to a laptop or you spend all day watching youtube on your phone.




For the average Joe that's ok. For the Y generation and onwards (future) the speed you get and coverage with non-Telstra will and is right now rendered garbage. Think of it like any technology. Did you ever think 10 years ago a 2gb HDD would suffice.. Yes. Now computers are standard 320gb atleast right?

Same thing will happen once 4g comes. Telstra will have another monopoly... Grand times ahead!


----------



## Calliope (25 February 2011)

Between 7 Jan and 24 Feb the Future fund has sold 255,042,430 TLS shares. In this period their holding was reduced from 7.8% to 5.75%.

They really know how to kick the a*se out of mum and dad shareholders. On the positive side I think the price has stood up reasonably well in the face of this onslaught, but the Future Fund menace will be a brake on the price while they are a significant shareholder, which hopefully, won't be much longer. The day they become a spent force the price will climb.


----------



## TheAbyss (25 February 2011)

Calliope said:


> Between 7 Jan and 24 Feb the Future fund has sold 255,042,430 TLS shares. In this period their holding was reduced from 7.8% to 5.75%.
> 
> They really know how to kick the a*se out of mum and dad shareholders. On the positive side I think the price has stood up reasonably well in the face of this onslaught, but the Future Fund menace will be a brake on the price while they are a significant shareholder, which hopefully, won't be much longer. The day they become a spent force the price will climb.




Why do you think they will climb? No gain in margins or revenue that i can see.

Sure, the future fund will no longer need to report on share sales once they are less than a 5% holder but that doesnt mean TLS are worth any more per share than today. FF are overweight TLS so have are provided some sort of base for the SP for quite  awhile. the fact that they have removed their support due to whatever filters they are using doesnt entitle TLS to a SP increase.

In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?


----------



## Calliope (25 February 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?




Well, you can ponder that. In my opinion the overhang has been a brake on the price reaching its true value. Time will tell.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (25 February 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> Why do you think they will climb? No gain in margins or revenue that i can see.
> 
> Sure, the future fund will no longer need to report on share sales once they are less than a 5% holder but that doesnt mean TLS are worth any more per share than today. FF are overweight TLS so have are provided some sort of base for the SP for quite  awhile. the fact that they have removed their support due to whatever filters they are using doesnt entitle TLS to a SP increase.
> 
> In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?




The theory is that the Future Fund have been known by all and sundry as extremely willing sellers so that there is plenty of supply of TLS stock in the past few months.  As that stock dries up with the FF selling out, the theory predicts that the share price should climb.

As a holder of TLS since the first float, I think there's been some encouraging signs from Thodey in the past couple of months that he's beginning to imprint his mark on the company.  It's probably taken him the best part of 12 months to erase the influence of the three Amigos on the company's direction and to set his own direction.

I would like to see TLS retain as many of its new mobile subscribers as possible on higher margins.  It's one thing to attract almost 1 million new subscribers, but it's another thing to convince those subscribers to stick with their provider as prices rise.  Hopefully, Vodafone's issues over the past few months knocks their competitive capability around a little bit.


----------



## TheAbyss (25 February 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> The theory is that the Future Fund have been known by all and sundry as extremely willing sellers so that there is plenty of supply of TLS stock in the past few months.  As that stock dries up with the FF selling out, the theory predicts that the share price should climb.
> 
> As a holder of TLS since the first float, I think there's been some encouraging signs from Thodey in the past couple of months that he's beginning to imprint his mark on the company.  It's probably taken him the best part of 12 months to erase the influence of the three Amigos on the company's direction and to set his own direction.
> 
> I would like to see TLS retain as many of its new mobile subscribers as possible on higher margins.  It's one thing to attract almost 1 million new subscribers, but it's another thing to convince those subscribers to stick with their provider as prices rise.  Hopefully, Vodafone's issues over the past few months knocks their competitive capability around a little bit.




David Thodey is a breath of fresh air and loves technology and the company he works for. I know this from personal experience and whilst i don't eny him his job, am quietly cheering him on.

Mobile customers are traditionally difficult to retain however Telstra have the coverage to keep the customers and finally have recognised that they need to be price competitive to get the customers in teh first place.

Currently Optus sale speople are hurting because not only do Telstra have the best coverage they are now matching Optus and co for price.

They are winning the mobile battle and the assoicated data sales that come with that.

Still they need to not only need to stop losing market share, they need to show growth which is what i dont see. Stopping the bleeding isnt even half the battle form a shareholders perspective. Growth in earnings per share is required and it needs to be better than other stocks available or the SP will suffer some more.

The FF overhang is real and potentially restricting the SP but i dont like excuses. if TLS were showing growth then the FF wouldnt be selling in the first place.

Good luck to holders (which i am not one of)


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (26 February 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.82
Market Value: $20,287
======================
Gain since play: $287
Dividend since play: $1,007
======================
Total gain/loss: *$1,294*

Roughly 5+% so far.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (26 February 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> Why do you think they will climb? No gain in margins or revenue that i can see.
> 
> Sure, the future fund will no longer need to report on share sales once they are less than a 5% holder but that doesnt mean TLS are worth any more per share than today. FF are overweight TLS so have are provided some sort of base for the SP for quite  awhile. the fact that they have removed their support due to whatever filters they are using doesnt entitle TLS to a SP increase.
> 
> In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?




I don't know about you mate but generally pressure on mass selling leads to a decrease in SP usually. Therefore, good change the SP will rise once the FF is done. Very simple to understand. They aren't holding the floor they are tearing it away whenever we start to see nice growth. I still don't know how the government/FF got away with insider trading with Telstra... very disappointing.


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2011)

I think all the posturing by you guys is distracting from the main game. I would not be suprised if Telstra isn't allowed to keep a lot of it's infrastructure in operation to provide a service to the unemployed, pensioners and anybody else that just wants a telephone service thats works when the power drops off HELLO.
Also the "cherry picking" clause Conroy wants put in is exactly what he argued TELSTRA couldn't have when they wanted to stop the other carriers jumping on TELSTRAS back to cherry pick high population areas. The problem is Conroy thinks the electorate is stupid, what he forgets is a lot of them were Telstra mum and dad buyers or their families. This is becomming a bigger stuffup than the home insulation.Don't want to be political but you can't change the playing field to support your ideoligy, just makes everyone angry.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 February 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> ......The FF overhang is real and potentially restricting the SP but i dont like excuses. if TLS were showing growth then the FF wouldnt be selling in the first place.




The FF needed to sell down a component of it's holding in tls to broaden it's investment portfolio rather than just hold tls. Whether it needed to sell down tls to the extent it is, is another question. The negative outlook of the FF in a major shareholder is something tls doesn't need and will be well rid of when it is gone.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (4 March 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.81
Market Value: $20,215
======================
Gain since play: $215
Dividend since play: $1,007
======================
Total gain/loss: *$1,222*


----------



## TheAbyss (9 March 2011)

Now that the dividend play is over this is back on the downtrend. Interest will be whether it bounces off the Nov 2010 low of $2.55 or goes through to start making lower lows.

Sure the FF are still selling but this has been going down since its high of May, 2007 so to blame FF is only a short term view imo.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 March 2011)

TheAbyss said:


> Now that the dividend play is over this is back on the downtrend. Interest will be whether it bounces off the Nov 2010 low of $2.55 or goes through to start making lower lows.
> 
> Sure the FF are still selling but this has been going down since its high of May, 2007 so to blame FF is only a short term view imo.




THis is very true, the popularity of TLS is bad but IMHO this is on the improve and the 24 plans have been great for TLS just gotta wait for the next report and I can only see TLS's SP rising towards end June for the NBN vote. What do you guys think?


----------



## Bintang (9 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> THis is very true, the popularity of TLS is bad but IMHO this is on the improve and the 24 plans have been great for TLS just gotta wait for the next report and I can only see TLS's SP rising towards end June for the NBN vote. What do you guys think?




I am going to accumulate all the way down. I have a large holding of TLS which I acquired at an average price of $2.72. As it goes lower I will just acquire more. In fact if it goes below $2.55 I'll happily pick up a lot more.


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## BrightGreenGlow (9 March 2011)

Bintang said:


> I am going to accumulate all the way down. I have a large holding of TLS which I acquired at an average price of $2.72. As it goes lower I will just acquire more. In fact if it goes below $2.55 I'll happily pick up a lot more.




You make money by beating the market. I think you are going about it the right way! Just fingers crossed NBN goes through and those plans keep selling which I think they are judging by the people I talk with.


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## TheAbyss (9 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> THis is very true, the popularity of TLS is bad but IMHO this is on the improve and the 24 plans have been great for TLS just gotta wait for the next report and I can only see TLS's SP rising towards end June for the NBN vote. What do you guys think?




I see the current plans as having a degree of success and look forward to the SP downtrend to cease on the back of this. What i dont see is how the trend reverses and capital growth begins. 

More likely in my view is a halt of the downtrend at some point and a new trading range is found. That by no means indicates TLS SP will get back to circa $4.00 in the foresable future. Their market is shrinking all the time due to GOVT and ACCC rulings around level playing fields etc (which are bordering on restraint of trade in some areas imo).

Some good news on NBN will be a panacea for TLS and may put a halt to the downtrend for a while and buy some time for Thodeys plans to show some success.

SP will overshoot to the downside then come back up onto a range and fluctuate for 12 months but where that range is, is yet to be seen


----------



## Frank D (9 March 2011)

*TLS*

TLS is back into support levels @ 2.73, but the cycle remains weak as
 it's trading below the March 50% level @ 2.84.

If you are holding longs on TLS, you don't want to see TLS trading below 
these levels in the 3rd month of the Quarter, as it can follow a larger 
trend down towards 2.48


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (9 March 2011)

Whoops double post. Joe can you delete. Sorry guys


----------



## nulla nulla (9 March 2011)

Frank D said:


> *TLS*
> 
> TLS is back into support levels @ 2.73, but the cycle remains weak as
> it's trading below the March 50% level @ 2.84.
> ...




I see the support level at $2.55....*if*....it continues to slide. 
I can't see the reason for the slide to the current level and i am hesitant to top up (in case it slides further) however if it gets back to the $2.55 - $2.60 levels, I will talk to the margin lenders to take a long term stake. Just my perspective but imo tls is getting kicked arround by everyone from the ACCC to the Future Fund and is worth more than the current price level.


----------



## drsmith (10 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> *Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
> Initial Capital: $20,000
> Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
> ======================
> ...



A few corrections to the above pre-tax figures need to be considered.

_1) Brokerage and GST on the purchase and ultimately on the sale._

Obviously not much in terms of the invested capital, but still needs to be included for accurate calculation of gain, realised or unrealised.

_2)  $432 of imputation credits (6 cents per share) flowing from the 14 cent dividend._

While these tax credits are not paid into your bank account, they do represent income from the shares.

_3) Opportunity cost from having the initial capital (~$20k) invested elsewhere._

For example, 6% pa is easily available from cash, so this needs to be deducted from the total gain/loss to calculate the difference between the investment in TLS and cash.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (10 March 2011)

drsmith said:


> A few corrections to the above pre-tax figures need to be considered.
> 
> _1) Brokerage and GST on the purchase and ultimately on the sale._
> 
> ...




This is very true, I just wanted to keep it very simple though.


----------



## nulla nulla (13 March 2011)

TLS continued to drop on Friday 11-03-2011. Couldn't see any new negative news to spark a sell off. The daily Depth figures have shown twice as much sell volume as buy volume all week. 
The two year chart shows a continuous slide and if tls continues to follow this trend we will see new lows before too much longer. The yield might be good but the falling capital value since it went exdiv is undermining any value it held.


----------



## Frank D (13 March 2011)

*TLS*

TLS started the month of March in a bearish cycle ;- below 2.84

And now it's broken it's support levels @ 2.73 which can often extend lower 
into the following Quarter, and as low as 2.48.

Minor swing pattern support next week would be 2.58, but I'm not sure
whether TLS will get back above 2.73/77 for the rest of the month.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (16 March 2011)

Whatever short term bullishness on TLS existed seems to have completely disappeared.  The share price is now back to depths seen in November 2010 and I suspect we'll see a break below the previous bottom price of $2.55/share in the near future.  That $2.58/share support level Frank mentioned in his post is now being sorely tested.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (16 March 2011)

To be honest I believe TLS is massively cheap when you consider the next two dividend periods are going to be paid at 14c each. The possibility of the NBN is becoming more probable, customer base is turning around (mum n dad just signed up for 2 years + of bigpond...), service is now the best you can find in the telco business and another monoply (4G) will start to be rolled out by the end of the year.

So many strong fundamentals should change the SP and change Telstra's earnings.. however it has just drifted and couldn't even get into the red today. I'm very bullish on this however have been proven wrong the last few weeks. Any other incite rather than charts?


----------



## Frank D (18 March 2011)

*TLS *

minor swing pattern off 2.58 and potentially back towards 2.78-2.80

*Next week's trend guide is 2.68/70*

What traders need to keep an eye on is the April 50% level,
 and whether there is a 2nd wave down towards 2.48.

TLS is currently in a monthly breakout pattern that can often extend down into
 next months lows, therefore I would treat TLS as a minor swing pattern at 
this stage.

if it can get above 2.68/70


----------



## McCoy Pauley (18 March 2011)

Thodey announced to the market this morning that a shareholder vote on the deal with NBN Co will be delayed, notwithstanding that progress has been made on negotiating the finer points of the deal.

Unsurprising, really.  It was always an ambitious target to have a shareholder vote in July 2011.  I suspect that shareholders won't be asked to vote on the deal until August or September 2011 at the earliest, given the hurdles that remain to be cleared.  But we might get an update in the next fortnight about the progress of negotiations, though.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (25 March 2011)

The FF is up around the 5% level of ownership and no longer a substantial holder of Telstra. This is only good news and so the SP has risen today... hoping to be around the 2.75-80 level by next month.


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## nulla nulla (26 March 2011)

The papers indicated that the senate pushed through some NBN legislation last night, with some hotly contested ammendments. Apparantly the lower house is to be recalled on Monday to vote the legislation into law. This must bode well for the tls timetable that has been up in the air. Hopefully, for holders, it will have more positive effect on the share price on Monday.


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## BrightGreenGlow (26 March 2011)

Is this to do with the policy that TLS will be allowed to make backdoor deals with NBNco... I saw on the news yesterday Optus bitching about this... pitty for Optus...


----------



## nulla nulla (27 March 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Is this to do with the policy that TLS will be allowed to make backdoor deals with NBNco... I saw on the news yesterday Optus bitching about this... pitty for Optus...




I read into it that NBN would be a wholesaler unable to do supply deals with anyone including telstra.


----------



## wat17 (31 March 2011)

Telstra has seemed to be moving up and up after their low the other week.

I was hoping to get some at $2.60 but couldn't get my act together.

Reckon they might head back down that way? Currently at $2.80 and have been going up 2-4c a day for the last week or so.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (31 March 2011)

I don't see the SP going down that much while the nbn is still on the table. Unless the FF offload all their stock soon. Either way therer won't be an announcement if they do just more selling pressure.


----------



## drsmith (31 March 2011)

I would suggest that Tesltra is responding to the expectation that the deal with the NBN will shortly be formalised.

By the time it's announced, it may largely be factored into the share price.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (31 March 2011)

wat17 said:


> Telstra has seemed to be moving up and up after their low the other week.
> 
> I was hoping to get some at $2.60 but couldn't get my act together.
> 
> Reckon they might head back down that way? Currently at $2.80 and have been going up 2-4c a day for the last week or so.




I think the market might be pricing in some good news on the advancement of the deal between NBN Co and Telstra on the handover of the copper network.  If the news doesn't come through in the next couple of weeks (as a hunch) I suspect the share price might come down again, but perhaps not to $2.60/share.

DYOR.  I hold.


----------



## nulla nulla (2 April 2011)

It is always a good week when the Telstra share price goes up. On Thursday there was a jump in turnover and a huge part of it went through at $2.84. The sellers built up to 9 million at $2.85 during the day and a little over 1 million went through at $2.85. Unfortunately in the closing stages of the day (particularly in the auction) there was a huge sell down pushing the closing price down to $2.82. 

Turnover on Friday was very subdued in comparison with Thursday, with most trade in the range $2.80 - $2.81. Telstra held $2.81 in the close.
If there is any good news released (NBN wise) I wouldnt be surprised to see the share price testing $2.85 and above next week.


----------



## Bintang (2 April 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> It is always a good week when the Telstra share price goes up. On Thursday there was a jump in turnover and a huge part of it went through at $2.84. The sellers built up to 9 million at $2.85 during the day and a little over 1 million went through at $2.85. Unfortunately in the closing stages of the day (particularly in the auction) there was a huge sell down pushing the closing price down to $2.82.
> 
> Turnover on Friday was very subdued in comparison with Thursday, with most trade in the range $2.80 - $2.81. Telstra held $2.81 in the close.
> If there is any good news released (NBN wise) I wouldnt be surprised to see the share price testing $2.85 and above next week.





I was watching the TLS action around market close on Thursday. The price at actual market close was still 2.84 but the large number of trades at 2.82 went through 10 minutes after closing. I did wonder what the hell was going on. How that can happen? Can anyone explain?


----------



## Bintang (2 April 2011)

TLS looks to have been largely tracking the market since October last year.
SGT on the other hand has been going in the opposite direction. Is that telling something?


----------



## nulla nulla (2 April 2011)

Bintang said:


> I was watching the TLS action around market close on Thursday. The price at actual market close was still 2.84 but the large number of trades at 2.82 went through 10 minutes after closing. I did wonder what the hell was going on. How that can happen? Can anyone explain?




The market closes at 4:00pm but then goes into Auction Mode where the buyers and seller are matched in a similar fashion to the opening. The auction usualy closes at 4:10pm on the dot.


----------



## nulla nulla (8 April 2011)

TLS appears to be trying to break through the resistance levels arround the $2.86 mark. It is hard to work out if the resistance is the result of the Future Fund selling out or other market pressures linked to the NBN. 

TLS has announce the raising of $1billion at 4.8% (or there-abouts) in the U.S. Probably another opportunity to retire debt financed at higher rates. However it is hoped thay have factored in the potential for currency revaluations impacting on the bottom line if the AUD$ returns to sub parity levels.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 April 2011)

Last week tls bounced around the range $2.80 to $2.85. A couple of times it opened arround the $2.84 level and looked like it could push higher before being slapped down to the $2.82 - $2.83 range or lower.

I am not a great chart reader, so I can't say what it means when the recent shoulder is higher than the previous shoulder or whether this weeks action is a pennant indicating the price is due to break out (up or down). 

I suspect the Future Fund is continuing to reduce their holding, so I am not expecting any rally in the short term. Maybe an announcement that NBN will use Telstra to do the roll out of their cable would do the trick. Otherwise I expect more of the same, continuing sideways and downwards in what appears to be a well established channel.

Mind you, the recent low was higher than the previous low, perhaps the Elliot Wavers can advise us what it means?


----------



## nulla nulla (21 April 2011)

After a sporadic 3 days where tls looked like it was going to stick to last weeks script, tls took off after todays open and turned over a quick 10 million or so as it pushed up to $2.87. And then it stopped.

I have two small sell parcels sitting in queue at $2.87 (within the first 500k shares) and wasn't impressed when the sellers came out of the woodwork, well and trully putting the brakes on. 

Back to the $2.84 - $2.85 and struggled there after to make any impression on $2.85 before the end of day auction.

To my untrained eye tls really looks like it is trying to break out above $2.85. Maybe next week?


----------



## alexandro (23 April 2011)

The characteristics of TLS have changed since its visit to 2.57 recently and the announcement that future fund holding was now down under 5%. It has become stronger and less of a dog. A tinge of bullishness.

It’s taking a long breather after a decent recovery from 2.57 but time is running out and it has to decide soon, up or down. It should go to at least to 2.94 for a start then test 3 again. That way it would have filled the trading gap between 2.94 to 2.81 created in February when it went ex-dividend. But the last few days trade where it added 1c per day from 2.83 to 84 to 85 was more that the All Ords tide was lifting all boats than any TLS strength action. Like a shy girl not quite ready, it did it but reluctantly and not yet convincingly. The desire must be stronger. What we need is a day soon where it closes up by at least 3-4c on volume above 60mil and a close above 2.85-86.

If you do a monthly candlestick plot of TLS you can see that TLS has gained nothing the past 5 months. The gains were only intra-month if any (up, then down). So there hasn’t been a month for a long time where it has closed higher than it has opened the month. I am betting April is going to be a month where this happens. It opened April at 2.82 and by the time April trading days are over, it should close higher than 2.82. And I’m betting there will be months ahead where gains are posted. TLS opened the year at 2.80 and will close the year higher than that to post the first positive year in a while. It must happen. We are not far from the year open now 2.80 vs. 2.85, so according to my theory, TLS has a lot of gaining to do and upside up to December 31st. I’m thinking this stock is on its way to 3.25.

Frank D's insights have been useful, although sometimes wrong way around or out by timing, his posts contained many elements that played out. If you’re out there Frank D and got a few moments.....let’s hear your analysis.

Happy Easter


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## nulla nulla (25 April 2011)

The fairfax article has received mention in the NBN thread.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...holesale-pricing/story-e6frg8zx-1226044176709

If the monthly cost for the minor telco's to cherry pick City copper lines increases from $6 per month to $16.00 this would have to impact profitably on the tls bottom line for such time as it takes for NBN to roll out and telco customers to be migrated (if ever).

Be interesting to see if tls has to put out a revenue/profit forescast upgrade.


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## ROE (25 April 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The fairfax article has received mention in the NBN thread.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...holesale-pricing/story-e6frg8zx-1226044176709
> 
> ...




not until after May please 

My covered call strike price 2.90 is getting mighty close and i want it expire worthless before any good news come out 

from now till end of May if TLS trade between 2.80 and 2.90 I double bag this month options ...both PUT and CALL expire worthless


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## nulla nulla (29 April 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> To my untrained eye tls really looks like it is trying to break out above $2.85. Maybe next week?




Nice to get one right. Only took the news of the AFL Internet Streaming rights to provide the spark to launch tls up past the $2.86 barrier. 

The spurt with volume before the close to $2.91 and holding at $2.91 in the auction looks promising for next week.


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## BrightGreenGlow (29 April 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Nice to get one right. Only took the news of the AFL Internet Streaming rights to provide the spark to launch tls up past the $2.86 barrier.
> 
> The spurt with volume before the close to $2.91 and holding at $2.91 in the auction looks promising for next week.





That helped it for sure nulla, without any bad news TLS should really be gaining 1-2secs a week in anticipation of the NBN..baring all things go as planned. Not necessarily on time but to plan. PS: I hope ur right about next week.


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## BrightGreenGlow (30 April 2011)

Will be hoping its before Novemember (the NBN vote) however I won't mind waiting until then...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...faces-long-delay/story-e6frg8zx-1226047202643


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## drsmith (30 April 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Will be hoping its before Novemember (the NBN vote) however I won't mind waiting until then...



What year ?

The current ALP government might be toast by then.


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## BrightGreenGlow (30 April 2011)

this year i hope x 2 smith.....

we are already half way to the next bit of franked money....


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## alexandro (7 May 2011)

I think TLS has huge upside from here. This is just the start. It is 3.40 within 6 months then back into the $4's in 18 months. The trend is our friend.


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## Boggo (7 May 2011)

sptrawler said:


> I would think their shareprice will head up to $3.40 again quite quickly.






alexandro said:


> I think TLS has huge upside from here. This is just the start. It is 3.40 within 6 months then back into the $4's in 18 months. The trend is our friend.




The first post above was made on 8th of September, it hast gained 10c since then and now we have a target of another 6 months 

alexandro, can you show some analysis/qualification/information to substantiate that bold statement or is it just wishful thinking ?


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## nulla nulla (8 May 2011)

Seems to have broken away from the $2.80 - $2.85 range and is now trying to work higher. The recent news has been good regarding mobile market share gains at the expense of vodaphone. NBN appears to be slowly moving toward a positive outcome for telstra.

The overhang from the future fund is probably still being pushed into the market. I would not be surprised to see tls move to the $3.00 - $3.10 range before the end of fiscal year as the future funds completes their exit. At the same time the NBN volatility could push the price back down. I like the chart.


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## alexandro (8 May 2011)

Analysis/qualification/information 1.

It appears that an important trend is taking place - the double bottom reversal.
•Is there a prior trend to reverse - yes, the magnificent TLS down trend of all time.
•Has the down trend line been broken-yes.
•Are the two bottoms at about the same price level – yes (within 3%).
•Have the two bottoms formed in the text book time frame of 1-3 months – yes (4 in this case).
•The breakout point is at $2.99. The bottoms have occurred at 2.55 and 2.57 (call it 2.57). The distance between the breakout point and the levels at which the bottoms have taken place is 2.99-2.57=42cents. The potential target becomes 2.99+0.42=$3.41.

TLS arrived at the breakout point of 2.99 on Friday. This level is psychologically important as it is the February high and 3.00 is psychologically important for obvious reasons. So it is natural for it to stall here. Thats it and enough on charts. What is more is that fundamentals are also good at this time and there are good developments on the way to support the double bottom reversal.

NBN deal sign off and removal of uncertainty. Completion of the Future Fund sell. Re-weighting of the stock up to 3% on the AllOrds. Significant increase in mobile customer numbers. If interest rates go down, TLS’s rate will look even more attractive. Successful bid and award of wireless spectrum. 

There could even be an upward revision to profits (that would really do it and is likely).

Analysis/qualification/information 2.

TLS was tracking with the AllOrds during the financial crisis and even outperformed owing to its defensive nature at the time. The deviation began in August 2009 where the future fund did its first off-load. Then, profit downgrades, NBN issues and further Future Fund on-market sell offs made it worse and the gap between the AllOrds and TLS widened. Last November, when the gap got too wide (about 25%), TLS bounced and did some bridging of the gap. The gap currently stands at about 20%, again very wide. On the 10 years chart, the gap stands at 100%. The last time the gap was 100% was late 2006 where TLS rose from a low of 3.43 to 4.96 (45%) in a space of 7.5 months. An effort was made to close the gap, but the credit driven and artificial rise of the AllOrds was too strong and the gap widened. In the crisis, the AllOrds broke down and helped bridge the gap afterwards. The gap again widened when TLS didn’t participate in the 2009 recovery. I believe conditions are shaping up and fundamentals are there now for this gap to close further to more normal levels (I’m not saying all the way, but the probability is high). That is also why the double bottom reversal and 3.40 target makes sense. It all fits in. TLS’s PE ratio of 11.75 is also low and has room to move up to 12 or even 13.


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## Boggo (8 May 2011)

Excellent alexandro, good summation.

TLS is not my kind of stock but its refreshing to see someone associate some fundamental potential and pattern analysis.

Its triggered my weekly system again but on past occasions it rebounded off the line and created a shorting opportunity on the daily chart.

(click to expand)


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## alexandro (8 May 2011)

Here are charts again


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## McCoy Pauley (9 May 2011)

Looks like that $2.99/share is a resistance level.  Down to $2.93/share today.  This week will be pivotal, IMO, to working out the near-term share price of TLS.


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## nulla nulla (10 May 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Looks like that $2.99/share is a resistance level.  Down to $2.93/share today.  This week will be pivotal, IMO, to working out the near-term share price of TLS.




Possibly a bit of profit taking given the open of $2.99. Anyone projecting a re-entry point?


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## nulla nulla (14 May 2011)

A solid week finishing on $2.98 after tapping $3.00 in interday trading on Friday. The chart has all the appearance of a share trying to break out upwards (in my opinion).

Next week could see a repeat of a recent entry exit pattern with trading between $2.98 and $3.03 (as holders lock in their profits and fresh buyers jump on looking for the rises into the low $3.00's). 

At least the Future Fund has lost some of it's ability to push/hold the price down with it's policy of dumping large volumes of shares every time the share price looked like climbing.


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## alexandro (14 May 2011)

Closing of the gap between the AllOrds and TLS performance progressed further this week (compared to last post 3yr chart) as AllOrds went down and TLS held steady (up 1 cent). TLS needs a close above 2.98 into 3's on very high volume (in a very convincing way). Australian and world markets not looking good (weak), thats not going to help. So in the short term, the force that propels TLS over the line doesn't look like it will come from there. It will have to be TLS specific news that does it.


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## alexandro (16 May 2011)

She has traded at 3 again but not convincingly. Volume too light at 27mil. Needs to punch through 3 harder.


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## jaystar86 (16 May 2011)

I can't believe i'm even admitting this... but... TLS looks like it could form into a reasonable trade (as per the above analyses and my own opinion)... 

Adding to the appeal for me is their new CEO seems to be able to get things done... unlike their last highly overpaid excuse for a leader.


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## BrightGreenGlow (18 May 2011)

*Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $3.02
Market Value: $21,726
======================
Gain since play: $1,726
Dividend since play: $1,007
======================
Total gain/loss: *$2,833*

Roughly 14+% so far.

Very handy.... I must say... this play has beaten many other plays since the buy date which I posted around Feb? Cheers.

Note: nearly half of this money is dividend money, therefore, very effective for income tax.


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## nulla nulla (18 May 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> *Telstra Dividend and NBN play*
> Initial Capital: $20,000
> Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
> ======================
> ...




Given the length of time you have held these , don't forget your franking credits..


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## BrightGreenGlow (18 May 2011)

Yep that's right nulla, add another $200+ there. This has come as the market has been depressed through May and April. I don't suggest that this run will continue without hiccups but given the NBN is approved by end October I dont see why there wouldn't be another 30-40c added on the nearing of this announcement..... if all things go smooth. I don't think Labor can handle a NBN F-up now.


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## Muschu (18 May 2011)

A stock that is becoming interesting, imo, for the first time in a long time....


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## nulla nulla (20 May 2011)

At this point, imo, you would have to ask yourself "if you are not on, have you left your run too late?"  A meteoric rise pushing to $3.06 before falling back in the close. Can it sustain this rate or is it due for a retrace? DYOR, goodluck.


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## nulla nulla (27 May 2011)

Seven (7) days on and it looks like tls is trying to break though the upper channel bar and move on to $3.20 or (dare I say it ) $3.36.

Then of course the ACCC could put the kybosh on the Foxtel (50% Telstra owned) take-over of Austral which could see the price of tls slump to a reasonable low risk entry point (IMO). As always DYOR.


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## alexandro (7 June 2011)

Finally broke above 3.06 after dicking around a while (a bullish rectangle). A good candlestick formation on decent volume. There will be more coming. On its way to close the gap in the chart between 3.06 and 3.25 left there in August 2010 when it did the one day step drop owing to profit downgrade. So will trade that gap all the way up to 3.25. The trend is our friend.


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## drsmith (7 June 2011)

NBN Co chairman Harrison Young has revealed the complex $11 billion deal between Telstra and NBN Co on the National Broadband Network will be completed next week, the Australian Financial Review has reported.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-to-deal-report-pd20110607-HL9KR?OpenDocument


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 June 2011)

Feels great to have backed myself and kept buying TLS knowing how much their service has changed and how their sales are up just from a personal level.  This is obviously due to the NBN news but very deserving.


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## alexandro (9 June 2011)

No need to worry. Just a pull-back. Higher highs will follow. See it as another chance to get in.


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## BrightGreenGlow (13 June 2011)

Alexando.... this will help.



			
				News Corp said:
			
		

> ART OF A STORY IN THE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS, WITH THE WALL ST JOURNAL >
> Telstra negotiates NBN break fee
> June 13, 2011 12:00AM
> 
> ...




I'm focusing on the "maybe this week" bit.


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## LRG (16 June 2011)

TLS has been holding up exceptionly well thru this current panic selling on world markets.

Was hoping it would dip below 3 bucks to pick up some more - but no it is holding up so well - amazing.

where will it go in a few days/weeks when sentiment is back to positive 3.50ish???


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## BrightGreenGlow (22 June 2011)

Hey guys... and TLS holders.. I have read a few articles today (news.com.au and theaust.com.au) that seem to suggest a NBN deal will be out as soon as this week and possibly tomorrow. Should be a big week for the holders... I'm looking at offloading around 50% of my holding if the price jumps to say $3.20 area.. this could well be on the cards due to broker's valuations and realistically maybe even near $3.45ish... who knows but ill be watching and trigger clicker ready...

Don't know if I could sell more due to that very juicy tax friendly divy coming up very soon too.


----------



## Bintang (23 June 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Hey guys... and TLS holders.. I have read a few articles today (news.com.au and theaust.com.au) that seem to suggest a NBN deal will be out as soon as this week and possibly tomorrow. Should be a big week for the holders... I'm looking at offloading around 50% of my holding if the price jumps to say $3.20 area.. this could well be on the cards due to broker's valuations and realistically maybe even near $3.45ish... who knows but ill be watching and trigger clicker ready...
> 
> Don't know if I could sell more due to that very juicy tax friendly divy coming up very soon too.




Well it closed down 7cents today on the 'good news'. Gone completely in the opposite direction. Why?


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## drsmith (23 June 2011)

Bintang said:


> Well it closed down 7cents today on the 'good news'. Gone completely in the opposite direction. Why?



Because, the 'good news' was broadcast well beforehand and hence allready factored into the share price.


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## nulla nulla (23 June 2011)

The key to the retrace in my opinion was the statement by Thodey that the benefits of the signing of the deal would not materialise in the 2012 P&L. Market was hoping to see the revenue come on stream earlier.


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## Boggo (24 June 2011)

Nice chart action for those with a shorting plan in place.

(click to expand)


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## BrightGreenGlow (24 June 2011)

Well, wasn't I wrong about the latest movement.... sellers are very fickle. I'll still hold and buy buy is it does into the low $2.8 to get in for that divy again and also the ever stronger customer base.


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## Boggo (24 June 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> ... sellers are very fickle.




And very predictable too sometimes, price just hit 2.87, a potential support area around 2.86 to 2.87.

2.83 to 2.80 is a possible next hesitation/stop if this does not hold, one step at a time.

(click to expand)


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## skc (24 June 2011)

Boggo said:


> And very predictable too sometimes, price just hit 2.87, a potential support area around 2.86 to 2.87.
> 
> 2.83 to 2.80 is a possible next hesitation/stop if this does not hold, one step at a time.
> 
> (click to expand)




My random prediction of the day...

TLS falling back down and lingers around $2.8, until early Aug when people start to pile in for the dividend prospect again...


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## Knobby22 (24 June 2011)

I agree skc.

Its the old saying by the rumour sell the fact. I think too many temporary buyers dived in expecting more buyers once the deal was sealed and they didn't materialise.

Good buy if you need the dividends, this also goes with Mortgage Choice which has also fallen back.


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## poverty (24 June 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> Good buy if you need the dividends, this also goes with Mortgage Choice which has also fallen back.




LOL well I guess I won't bother buying, I don't need any dividends


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## oldblue (24 June 2011)

Just a thought, but why would you want to buy a stock that's subject to such heavy-handed political interference as TLS has had to contend with?

Oh, I see, it's the yield!


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## nulla nulla (24 June 2011)

I've got bids in at $2.85 and $2.79. Market is driven by sentiment and doesn't know what it wants. Brokers previously rated tls at $2.90. The yield on $2.80 is 10% plus franking. If I get set I will see if I can ride it for the divs and (hopefully) a run up over $3.36.


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## Boggo (24 June 2011)

I just do not understand why people stuff around with this stock (other than a quick short when everyone expects it to go up).

Buy a few instalment warrants for half the price of the share a month or so before TLS goes ex, collect the dividend x 2, sell asap and watch the 'investors' wonder why its falling again after the 'run up'. 

Oh, and have a read of this *TLS - the facts*


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## So_Cynical (25 June 2011)

oldblue said:


> Just a thought, but why would you want to buy a stock that's subject to such heavy-handed political interference as TLS has had to contend with?
> 
> Oh, I see, it's the yield!




One of the big problems with TLS is that people have a memory, so many seem to only want to see what was and not what is, what's possible...i predicted the turn around back in Sept and was pretty much right.



So_Cynical said:


> (28th-September-2010)
> I cant help but think that for someone looking at Telstra for the first time (an outsider) could possibly see some potential for a bottom and a contrarian, great turn around story in the making....a Telco giant on the brink of a comeback.
> 
> Apparently, according to a recent thread...there's some money to be made being contrarian.




The NBN changes everything for Telstra...its a company transformer.


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## Boggo (25 June 2011)

So_Cynical said:


> ...i predicted the turn around back in Sept and was pretty much right.




You're joking right  

What turn around, its lowest point in Sept was 2.62, its now on 2.88.
That's $0.26 in eight months = 3.25c per month.

Have a look at what the likes of ASL, ILU and numerous others have done over a similiar time period.


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## Knobby22 (25 June 2011)

I think its a great company if you are retired or reasonably low income and want a safe way to invest your cash at better than bank rates.

The argument that you shouldn't invest because of government interference works both ways. Now we know what the NBN deal is that creates a stabler price.

Sure its not a great capital gain stoc and lousy for traders and high income earners but for the right people its preety good. I don't own any as it doesn't suit my needs but I would if my circumstances were different.


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## ginar (25 June 2011)

Knobby22 said:


> I think its a great company if you are retired or reasonably low income and want a safe way to invest your cash at better than bank rates.
> 
> The argument that you shouldn't invest because of government interference works both ways. Now we know what the NBN deal is that creates a stabler price.
> 
> Sure its not a great capital gain stoc and lousy for traders and high income earners but for the right people its preety good. I don't own any as it doesn't suit my needs but I would if my circumstances were different.




FWIW a glance at a chart shows TLS to be one of the slowest stage 5 disasters ever witnessed so dont be mistaken . as an investment its total sh!te but for a short term trade every now and then for some div skimming it is pretty predictable and easy ...............


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## poverty (25 June 2011)

ginar said:


> FWIW a glance at a chart shows TLS to be one of the slowest stage 5 disasters ever witnessed so dont be mistaken . as an investment its total sh!te but for a short term trade every now and then for some div skimming it is pretty predictable and easy ...............




Completely depends on when you bought in, if you bought in at $6 yes it's a disaster and a 'serial wealth destroyer' as it has been described.  But it's pretty hard to see much further downside if you get in at say $2.80 and the dividend return at that price is huge.


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## ginar (25 June 2011)

poverty said:


> Completely depends on when you bought in, if you bought in at $6 yes it's a disaster and a 'serial wealth destroyer' as it has been described.  But it's pretty hard to see much further downside if you get in at say $2.80 and the dividend return at that price is huge.




the thing is people were saying the same thing at 4.50 , 4.00 , 3.50 , 3.00 etc . now at 2.80 as a long term investemnt how long do you really think this yield can be maintained .... ill give you a hint  , declining revenues on declining margins with a payout ratio that averages over 100% last 5 years . sustainable ?? you tell me 


Company Historicals  
PER SHARE STATISTICS   
 6/01  6/02  6/03  6/04  6/05  6/06  6/07  6/08  6/09  6/10  
Sales($) 1.45 1.57 1.60 1.65 1.78 1.84 1.91 2.00 2.06 2.01 
Cash Flow(cents) 51.3 55.2 54.8 58.4 65.2 69.2 68.6 71.4 72.8 78.1 
Earnings(cents) 34.6 28.4 35.2 32.6 34.8 25.7 26.2 29.8 32.9 31.3 
Dividends(cents) 19.0 22.0 27.0 26.0 40.0 34.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 
Franking(%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 
Capital Spending(cents) -34.0 -27.1 -25.3 -23.7 -28.3 -34.4 -45.5 -43.0 -38.8 -29.0 
Book Value($) 1.03 1.10 1.20 1.22 1.20 1.01 0.99 0.97 1.00 1.02 
Shares Outstanding(m) 12,866 12,866 12,866 12,628 12,443 12,443 12,443 12,443 12,443 12,443 
Avge annual PE ratio 19.0 18.1 12.9 14.6 14.2 16.0 15.8 15.3 11.5 10.4 
Relative P/E(%) 142.2 130.3 97.4 103.4 97.3 116.6 108.0 100.0 108.0 78.6 
Total Return(%) -18.3 -9.8 0.2 20.6 7.5 -19.7 33.8 -1.6 -13.9 4.7 
+/- Market(%) -27.2 -5.2 1.3 -1.8 -17.3 -44.0 3.5 10.5 8.3 -9.1 
+/- ASX sector(%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 




HISTORICAL FINANCIALS  
 6/01  6/02  6/03  6/04  6/05  6/06  6/07  6/08  6/09  6/10  
Revenues ($million) 18,718 20,240 20,528 20,950 22,257 22,772 23,709 24,834 25,514 24,967 
Operating margin(%) 55.8 46.8 50.0 49.2 47.9 42.1 41.6 41.9 42.9 43.4 
Depreciation ($million) -2,386 -2,612 -2,703 -2,873 -2,946 -3,183 -3,344 -3,486 -3,624 -3,440 
Amortisation ($million) -485 -655 -744 -742 -820 -904 -738 -704 -766 -906 
Net profit before abnormals ($million) 4,453 3,656 4,528 4,154 4,349 3,181 3,253 3,692 4,073 3,883 
Net profit ($million) 4,058 3,661 3,429 4,118 4,447 3,181 3,253 3,692 4,073 3,883 
Income tax rate(%) 35.5 33.0 31.1 29.6 29.1 30.3 30.2 27.8 28.0 28.9 
Net profit margin(%) 23.8 18.1 22.1 19.8 19.5 14.0 13.7 14.9 16.0 15.6 
Employees (thousands) 44.9 40.4 42.1 78.1 46.3 49.4 47.8 46.6 43.2 45.2 
Long term debt ($million) 11,386 11,860 10,806 9,014 11,816 11,409 11,619 13,444 15,344 12,370 
Shareholders equity ($million) 13,239 14,108 15,420 15,359 14,879 12,586 12,329 12,017 12,418 12,696 
Return on capital(%) 20 16 20 19 18 16 17 18 17 18 
Return on equity(%) 33.6 25.9 29.4 27.0 29.2 25.3 26.4 30.7 32.8 30.6 
Payout ratio(%) 55 77 77 80 115 132 107 94 85 89


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## ginar (25 June 2011)

forecast earnings lower than supposed div

I have some macq analysis that paints bleaker picture into 2014 with declining divs forecast , cant really post that here as its pdf


FORECAST EARNINGS TREND DETAILS  
 Year Ending 30-06-11 --------- Year Ending 30-06-12 
 EPS(c) PE Growth --------- EPS(c) PE Growth 
Median 24.3 11.8 -22.3%  27.9 10.3 14.6% 
High 26.1 11.0 -16.7%  29.6 9.7 13.6% 
Low 23.0 12.5 -26.4%  26.9 10.7 16.7% 
30 Days Ago 24.2    27.6   
60 Days Ago 24.2    27.6   
90 Days Ago 24.1    26.9   

Number of Analyst 
Estimates 5  5


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## Boggo (25 June 2011)

ginar said:


> the thing is people were saying the same thing at 4.50 , 4.00 , 3.50 , 3.00 etc .




Exactly.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 June 2011)

Boggo said:


> You're joking right
> 
> What turn around, its lowest point in Sept was 2.62, its now on 2.88.
> That's $0.26 in eight months = 3.25c per month.
> ...




You didn't include the last dividend and credits 18.2 CPS and your selectively quoting Fridays close...personally i have a 100% record of NOT selling at low points so the $2.90 > $3 range is more realistic....i called a bottom (broadly) Sept/Oct/Nov 2010 and anyone that did buy at the low points over that period would be doing fine right now...and IMO opinion will continue to do so.

44.2 CPS (gross) in 8 months (16.8% approx) is a brilliant return and at the lower end of the range, smarter punters could of easily got 20%+....and lets leave ILU outa this, im still kicking myself that i only made 265%+ 
~


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## stacks (26 June 2011)

ginar said:


> FWIW a glance at a chart shows TLS to be one of the slowest stage 5 disasters ever witnessed so dont be mistaken . as an investment its total sh!te but for a short term trade every now and then for some div skimming it is pretty predictable and easy ...............




Total sh!te is a bit harsh given the price it can be bought for today. Up until the last 6 months though.. fair call.


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## Tysonboss1 (1 July 2011)

Boggo said:


> You're joking right
> 
> What turn around, its lowest point in Sept was 2.62, its now on 2.88.
> That's $0.26 in eight months = 3.25c per month.
> ...






So_Cynical said:


> You didn't include the last dividend and credits 18.2 CPS and your selectively quoting Fridays close...personally i have a 100% record of NOT selling at low points so the $2.90 > $3 range is more realistic....i called a bottom (broadly) Sept/Oct/Nov 2010 and anyone that did buy at the low points over that period would be doing fine right now...and IMO opinion will continue to do so.
> 
> 44.2 CPS (gross) in 8 months (16.8% approx) is a brilliant return and at the lower end of the range, smarter punters could of easily got 20%+....and lets leave ILU outa this, im still kicking myself that i only made 265%+
> ~




I aggree with So C, 

I have been selling (writting) Puts against this stock all year and so far it's been a cash cow.

Gee Boggo, if your not happy with a  10% cap gain along with a yield of over 12%pa your a hard man to please.


----------



## Boggo (1 July 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Gee Boggo, if your not happy with a  10% cap gain along with a yield of over 12%pa your a hard man to please.




Actually I love that yield, now I just have to do some calcs on which of these I will hold for the next couple of months - TLSIOI, IOP, IOU or IZJ.


----------



## nulla nulla (1 July 2011)

It goes up, it goes down and there never seems to be any logic. The recent retrace to $2.86 - $2.87 provided a couple of trade oportunities for the bold. Not me, I have a bid sitting at $2.85 and the closest the action got to me was 3.2 million shares in front of me when it hit $2.86. The chart looks lke it is forming a pennant with a potential break out (upwards action). 

Looks like it really needs the xao to turn upwards and have some more positive news on NBN. Otherwise I can't see it going anywhere while the xao continues to experience a 2 speed bear dominated environment.


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## Garpal Gumnut (1 July 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> It goes up, it goes down and there never seems to be any logic. The recent retrace to $2.86 - $2.87 provided a couple of trade oportunities for the bold. Not me, I have a bid sitting at $2.85 and the closest the action got to me was 3.2 million shares in front of me when it hit $2.86. The chart looks lke it is forming a pennant with a potential break out (upwards action).
> 
> Looks like it really needs the xao to turn upwards and have some more positive news on NBN. Otherwise I can't see it going anywhere while the xao continues to experience a 2 speed bear dominated environment.




Agree nulla, you would be brave to go long atm, no matter what the chart tells you, the downside risk is too great, you could be lucky , but the way this bugger gaps down there is no guarantee you could have your stop honoured. 

I haven't looked at volume recently. Does this point to a break to the up?

gg


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## nulla nulla (1 July 2011)

I have attached the MACD chart: 





and the RSI chart. 




The volumes are slightly below average (however we have no way of adjusting the average daily trade for the Future fund so I consider the average to be slightly overstated).

Personally I think we are due for another break out upwards., but as always dyor.


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## Garpal Gumnut (1 July 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> I have attached the MACD chart:
> 
> View attachment 43471
> 
> ...




You could be correct nn.

Although the volume recently does not indicate buyer support , at least not compared to the volume in March when it had rising volume on the drop at 2.60, and this volume doesn't push the closes up.

I'll wait I think, for a long.

gg


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## Boggo (1 July 2011)

I am expecting it to at least close the gap to 2.96.
There is a brick wall at 2.99, if it can get over that and get support in that area there could be a bit in it between now and the dividend.
I am long as of today on TLSIOU instalment warrants.

Link to my post on 24th June TLS chart low

(click to expand)


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## Boggo (8 July 2011)

Boggo said:


> I am expecting it to at least close the gap to 2.96.
> There is a brick wall at 2.99, if it can get over that and get support in that area there could be a bit in it between now and the dividend.
> I am long as of today on TLSIOU instalment warrants.




It looks like it is trying to find support at 2.99, if this holds then we may have another run up.
Its been playing the game since its dip at the end of June.

(click to expand x 2)


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## McCoy Pauley (11 August 2011)

TLS report out this morning. My key takeaway is that the dividends paid in the last financial year exceeded TLS' NPAT.  I wonder how sustainable 28cps dividends will be going forward.

The market doesn't seem to care, though. It's up almost 4% this morning.


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## Tysonboss1 (11 August 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> TLS report out this morning. My key takeaway is that the dividends paid in the last financial year exceeded TLS' NPAT.  I wonder how sustainable 28cps dividends will be going forward.
> 
> The market doesn't seem to care, though. It's up almost 4% this morning.




because the dividends are paid from cashflows, not from reported net profit.


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## pixel (11 August 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> because the dividends are paid from cashflows, not from reported net profit.



 That's one explanation; I would add the onservation that the 2nd half of the FY showed a strong turnaround compared to the July-December 2010 period. 
I'm hapy to hold, inspite of the 1c gap below yesterday's candle. It makes Tuesday more of a bottom reversal, and above that kind of candle, gaps can often remain open for years.


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## Boggo (11 August 2011)

That turning point had a convincing reversal written all over it.
I went long on TLSIOU warrants, couldn't resist that action on Tuesday, didn't expect the news to have that much effect today though 

(click to expand)


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## ROE (11 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> That turning point had a convincing reversal written all over it.
> I went long on TLSIOU warrants, couldn't resist that action on Tuesday, didn't expect the news to have that much effect today though
> 
> (click to expand)




Sold 80 TLSPN7 MAR 12 $3.1000 CALL @ $0.0800

when the going is good plus pocket 2 dividend

TLS can hovering around 2.80-$3.00 and I make 20-25% out of this dog each year.

TLS is my darling


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## Muschu (12 August 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> TLS report out this morning. My key takeaway is that the dividends paid in the last financial year exceeded TLS' NPAT.  I wonder how sustainable 28cps dividends will be going forward.
> 
> The market doesn't seem to care, though. It's up almost 4% this morning.




Unless I missed it, TLS has not yet given an XD record date.  Would someone mind confirming that please?

Thanks

Rick


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## Boggo (13 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Unless I missed it, TLS has not yet given an XD record date.  Would someone mind confirming that please?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> Rick




14 cents fully franked Rick, ex on Mon 22nd Aug, paid on 23rd Sept.


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## Boggo (13 August 2011)

ROE said:


> TLS can hovering around 2.80-$3.00 and I make 20-25% out of this dog each year.
> 
> TLS is my darling




Mine too twice a year, so predictable


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## Muschu (13 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> 14 cents fully franked Rick, ex on Mon 22nd Aug, paid on 23rd Sept.




Many thanks Boggo -- Don't know how I missed that...But I do miss a great deal these days...


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## Frank D (13 August 2011)

*TLS Primary cycles*

If long on TLS i'd keep an eye on 3.14...but it might not breakout
*until September...*

but if it begins trading above 3.14, it will be the first time since 2007 (#A) 
that TLS is above the Yearly 50% level and Quarterly high. (#B)

This could see the trend continue to move upwards for the next 6-months.

Support $2.95


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## Boggo (13 August 2011)

Frank D said:


> If long on TLS i'd keep an eye on 3.14...but it might not breakout
> *until September...*




I am long on this (warrants) for the bi-annual run with the upcoming dividend.

Circled below is my target area so I am hoping that Sept gets brought forward to this coming week Frank 
Some resistance to overcome first though. 

(click to expand)


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## iced earth (16 August 2011)

TLS(TELSTRA):15 AUGUST 2011
================================
In Telstra we are in a very important situation, we see at this price , TLS has two resistance line:

1- is a shorter term channel, which has target around3.60 (if the upper line of the channels passed up successfully)




2- there is another longer term channel which has the target around $4.00




and at this price at long term view, TLS would reaches the top of the long term bearish channel


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## nulla nulla (16 August 2011)

A paragraph in todays Sydney Morning Herald "Business Day" section, Telstra on Hold. The future fund has aparently reach its target of 100 million shares and will stop selling down the level of stock held.

This should take some sell pressure of tls. It will be interesting to see how much further (if any) it can run up this week before it goes ex-div on Monday.


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## ROE (16 August 2011)

Media release  

15 August 2011 
Future Fund completes portfolio rebalancing and achieves 
market weight in Telstra  

The Future Fund Board of Guardians (“Board”) today announced it had completed the 
rebalancing of its portfolio through its on-market selling of Telstra shares and reduced its 
holding in the company to 0.8% or approximately 100 million shares.  
Completion of the rebalancing meets the Board’s long-stated objective of reducing its Telstra 
holding in an orderly manner over the medium term.  
The Government transferred $9.21 billion worth of Telstra shares to the Board, primarily 
through the transfer of 2.1 billion Telstra shares in February 2007. As a result of share sales 
and dividends received, $9.37 billion has been integrated into the broader Future Fund 
portfolio over the Board’s holding period.  
The Board will no longer report the performance of its Telstra holding separately from the 
rest of the portfolio and will transfer management of the holding to external investment 
managers in line with its usual arrangements. 

ENDS


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## notting (16 August 2011)

> Orderly.



I hate to see the future fund make an unorderly exit.


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## Boggo (19 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> That turning point had a convincing reversal written all over it.
> I went long on TLSIOU warrants, couldn't resist that action on Tuesday, didn't expect the news to have that much effect today though




Just offloaded all my TLSIOU warrants, TLS going ex on Monday.
With the fact it is going ex and the negative sentiment at the moment I am tending to think that if TLS does a retrace of 38% to 50% it will be sub $3 again.

Taking the dividend and wearing the potential retracement was not an option, rather take just the profit and sit it out.


----------



## Muschu (19 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> Just offloaded all my TLSIOU warrants, TLS going ex on Monday.
> With the fact it is going ex and the negative sentiment at the moment I am tending to think that if TLS does a retrace of 38% to 50% it will be sub $3 again.
> 
> Taking the dividend and wearing the potential retracement was not an option, rather take just the profit and sit it out.




Between a rock and a hard place really.  No doubt TLS will go "sub $3" on Monday.... Just a matter of whether the dividend and franking credits in a SMSF make it worthwhile...


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## Boggo (20 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Between a rock and a hard place really.  No doubt TLS will go "sub $3" on Monday....




It was a bit of a no brainer this time Rick, just take the profits and let it do whatever it wants to.
In a more stable market it is possible to get into a warrant, get the dividend and still get out again for the same or better price with the divvy as a bonus.

Regardless of what you trade the overall market sentiment/trend will have an influence, in the case of TLS though this has been perfect timing for the run up as it goes ex on Monday.


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## jancha (23 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Between a rock and a hard place really.  No doubt TLS will go "sub $3" on Monday.... Just a matter of whether the dividend and franking credits in a SMSF make it worthwhile...



Correct on that it would drop below $3 but what about the run back up. 
TLS is a defensive stock and i personally see it heading back up to where it was exdiv date.


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## Muschu (23 August 2011)

jancha said:


> Correct on that it would drop below $3 but what about the run back up.
> TLS is a defensive stock and i personally see it heading back up to where it was exdiv date.




At the moment it at least looks like it may hang on, which is good enough for me in this market.


----------



## pixel (23 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> At the moment it at least looks like it may hang on, which is good enough for me in this market.



 At these levels, TLS should remain a rather useful "Hold" for Superfunds.
14cps dividend every 6 months, fully franked, gets a gross yield of 40c/$3 or 13.33% p.a.
Not bad in my books.


----------



## Boggo (23 August 2011)

pixel said:


> At these levels, TLS should remain a rather useful "Hold" for Superfunds.
> 14cps dividend every 6 months, fully franked, gets a gross yield of 40c/$3 or 13.33% p.a.
> Not bad in my books.




If it starts to turn up I would agree. Past history though over the last 10 years or so would indicate that it has been a lemon for long term holders.

I 'hold' this stock for about 5 to 6 weeks each year and I am pretty sure that I make a lot more from it that someone who has been holding it continously.

Having said that though I am tending to think that it may have some future upside potential which may be good for anyone buying now but is just a long road to recovery for anyone who has been there for many years.

Monthly chart (click to expand)


----------



## Muschu (23 August 2011)

Boggo said:


> ....Having said that though I am tending to think that it may have some future upside potential which may be good for anyone buying now.......




Fortunately [I think...] my buy price averaged around $2.85.  Hoping this one may make up some lost ground but uncertaintly seems to be the flavour of the times...

Regards

R


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## notting (23 August 2011)

Did splendidly today given it went ex.
May have finally tuurned


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## jancha (23 August 2011)

notting said:


> Did splendidly today given it went ex.
> May have finally tuurned




They had positive results in the 2nd half of the financial year and as a defensive share why wouldn't it turn? 
It's been a bad performer over the years but at some point it has to turn back into positive territory it just cant keep going down (unless they're in financial trouble) with that 28c return each year so with the current sp people will want to get on board
I bought 10,000 last Friday @ $3.08 before ex div date on Monday. I still get the div yes so im up $700 or even better seeing as it's franked. No expert but i feel telstra will have a bit of a run up from here on. Im thinking $3.30 We'll see anyway.


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## Julia (23 August 2011)

jancha said:


> They had positive results in the 2nd half of the financial year and as a defensive share why wouldn't it turn?



Can you say what you believe makes it a defensive share?


> It's been a bad performer over the years but at some point it has to turn back into positive territory it just cant keep going down



Why not?



> No expert but i feel telstra will have a bit of a run up from here on. Im thinking $3.30 We'll see anyway.



Can you explain the analysis behind your belief that it's about to have a run up?

I'm not saying you're wrong.  I don't know what will happen with TLS.
Would just like to understand the reasons behind your assertions.


----------



## pixel (23 August 2011)

Just for the record and to clear up any confusion:
Many years ago, when I was still green enough to occasionally ask a Full Service Broker for advice, the person looking after one CHESS holding of mine insisted TLS would "soon be a $10 stock". That's when I ordered her to sell as soon as it poked the nose above $9. (yes, it was last Century  and no, she didn't like it at all, but complied - $9.05 I got.)

I've been trading TLS in spurts now and then, even clipping a few dividends; but this year is the first time that I seriously consider keeping a few as an income provider - based on the calculations offered earlier today.Mind you, even at $4, a 40c dividend is nothing to sneeze at.

Yes, since the Future Fund has offloaded what they considered "excess", TLS may also "turn the corner" and provide some growth potential; the more the merrier. As long as the dividend keeps pace, I'll look at the parcel from both angles. If one side outweighs the usefulness of the other, I'll switch to Plan B.

Specifically replying to Julia's Q: I have been waiting for some time for TLS to "bottom out" and reverse the long-term down trend. Momentum (MACD) has shown a Bullish Divergence for about a year, suggesting last November marked THE Low; bearing in mind the short-term effect of yesterday's ex-div (add 14 or even 20c to today's Closing price) the breakout from the new rising channel looks done and dusted. (remember: if that's wrong, there's a Plan B or C, ...  )


----------



## notting (23 August 2011)

TLS off loaded aging Copper network for more than it's worth to a desperate labour government before an election.
The lunatic running the future fund has finished screaming the stock down then trying to sell masses of it which was somewhat negative for the stock!!! Took it down from 4.20
The NBN is one of the worst examples of waisting tax payer money ever,Telstra stands to gain a big chunk of it's use as well as being contractually obliged to not compete too much with it on it's state of the art wireless tech!!! It gets to charge too much all over the place. Thanks Labour!
It's all about improving competition, yeah right Steve!
There is new wireless tech coming on that will mean the mobile wireless will make the NBN, largely redundant. Telstra has all the cards.
Was a cracker of a buy 2 weeks ago at 2.75 bonuses today already!
No wonder they were grinning like Cheshire cats at the annual general meeting!
Could still show weekness after yesterdays ex but once it moves after that it's moving!!! 
IMO


----------



## jancha (24 August 2011)

Julia said:


> Can you say what you believe makes it a defensive share?
> 
> Why not?
> 
> ...




Julia
The reason i believe Telstra's a defensive share is in the past when the market has been volitile & uncertain Telstra doesn't seem to be effected as much as other companies. (maybe because it's one of the lowest risked companies) Example would be to go back to the GFC and compare sp fall in comparison to other companies eg. BHP and note the difference in fall %. I think off hand BHP dropped to as low as $20 from $44 where as TLS fell very little in comparison in the short term.
Telstra's drop from mid $4 was a slow continual one to where it is now but that was due to bad results not so much as the GFC at the time  Would you then not call it a defensive stock?
Why now? TLS are back in positive territory with sales up. I looked at Wes Farmers when they bought Coles i noticed the difference with the lift in customers and the improvement overall in the Cole stores. Much the same with Telstra i noticed their shops of late are full whereas Optus and Vodaphone stores were basically empty. They said they would turn that side of it around and if you look at their end of the year financials they have. You can also see further reasons from other posted responses to your questions as to why.
Why $3.30? Just a prediction nothing more.


----------



## notting (24 August 2011)

I reckon 4.20 easy within 12 months for the reasons sighted above.


----------



## McLovin (24 August 2011)

I don't know why people call a rent seeking monopoly engineering company that is having to transform itself into a competitive marketing and service company a defensive stock.


----------



## RandR (24 August 2011)

notting said:


> There is new wireless tech coming on that will mean the mobile wireless will make the NBN, largely redundant. Telstra has all the cards.




I agree with a lot of the points you made notting, except this one 


Care to provide an example of this wireless tech that will make fibre redundant ? .. and why would telstra have a monopoly on such a product ?


----------



## RandR (24 August 2011)

McLovin said:


> I don't know why people call a rent seeking monopoly engineering company that is having to transform itself into a competitive marketing and service company a defensive stock.




The transformation of Telstra as a company is interesting though isnt it ... I actually see it as a genuine future media play. Digital distribution rights for sports etc, could be a real $$$ spinner, both for sporting codes and telstra once the NBN beefs up the national bandwith. (disc: I dont hold and have no intention of holding tls atm)


----------



## notting (24 August 2011)

RandR said:


> Care to provide an example of this wireless tech that will make fibre redundant ? .. and why would telstra have a monopoly on such a product ?




Never used the word monopoly.  That's over.  It is is part of the point.  All that loss of monopoly is priced in already IMO.  It's now however the dominant player in both wireless and fixed line NBN.  
Fibre to the home is rediculous and shockingly waistefull.  Fibre to the Node would have been a good thing for the country.  People and indsutry could then pay to tap into it if they really wanted to and pay for it!



> I actually see it as a genuine future media play. Digital distribution rights for sports etc, could be a real $$$ spinner, both for sporting codes and telstra




Yes and on top of that there's quite a thing for wireless handheld devices.



> Care to provide an example of this wireless tech that will make fibre redundant ?




I am referring to fibre being redundant, I am talking NBN which is fibre to the home not fibre to the node which could have been achieved at 1/4 of the price.

This shouldn't suprise anybody who knows about the tech.  It's a fast moving, developing and very valuable industry!!!

New wireless technology claims to enable download speeds up to 1000 times faster than possible on conventional wireless networks.

A TECHNOLOGY guru who has been described as the Thomas Edison of Silicon Valley claims to have developed a new wireless technology that could one day rival the download speeds on the National Broadband Network.
The new technology, called DIDO, allows internet users to access download speeds up to 1000 times faster than possible on conventional wireless networks, without any fall in speed as more users get on to the network.

I hope this helps you RanR


----------



## McCoy Pauley (25 August 2011)

notting said:


> Never used the word monopoly.  That's over.  It is is part of the point.  All that loss of monopoly is priced in already IMO.  It's now however the dominant player in both wireless and fixed line NBN.
> Fibre to the home is rediculous and shockingly waistefull.  Fibre to the Node would have been a good thing for the country.  People and indsutry could then pay to tap into it if they really wanted to and pay for it!
> 
> 
> ...




Admittedly, it's been more than 10 years since I last studied physics and communications engineering, but I'm interested to read/hear about how this "guru" managed to overcome the fact that there is limited spectrum for wireless networks to use.

Having spoken to a former patents examiner a couple of years ago, if you search carefully enough and know what you're looking for, you can see multiple patents granted for what are essentially perpetual motion machines.

Colour me a sceptic, but a bite-sized quote about how a "guru" claims to have created a wireless network that overcomes the issues with increased spectrum usage won't fill me with much confidence.


----------



## RandR (25 August 2011)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Admittedly, it's been more than 10 years since I last studied physics and communications engineering, but I'm interested to read/hear about how this "guru" managed to overcome the fact that there is limited spectrum for wireless networks to use.
> 
> Having spoken to a former patents examiner a couple of years ago, if you search carefully enough and know what you're looking for, you can see multiple patents granted for what are essentially perpetual motion machines.
> 
> Colour me a sceptic, but a bite-sized quote about how a "guru" claims to have created a wireless network that overcomes the issues with increased spectrum usage won't fill me with much confidence.



 I'm not in anyway a techhead so reading about it didn't actually make a world of sense to me. But if you Google 'DIDO technology' it actually does come up with a fair bit of info for both for and a couple against. But it was interesting reading.


----------



## McLovin (25 August 2011)

RandR said:


> The transformation of Telstra as a company is interesting though isnt it ...




Sure it's interesting, I'm not sure I'd call it an investment though.



RandR said:


> I actually see it as a genuine future media play. Digital distribution rights for sports etc, could be a real $$$ spinner, both for sporting codes and telstra once the NBN beefs up the national bandwith. (disc: I dont hold and have no intention of holding tls atm)




I won't hold my breath on that. FXJ is a media play and look how badly it has done with transforming itself. TLS has spent its entire life with a monopoly advantage over its "competitors", that advantage is evaporating now. They may reinvent themselves, but history is littered with companies like TLS and the results aren't usually pretty.


----------



## jancha (25 August 2011)

McLovin said:


> Sure it's interesting, I'm not sure I'd call it an investment though.
> 
> 
> 
> I won't hold my breath on that. FXJ is a media play and look how badly it has done with transforming itself. TLS has spent its entire life with a monopoly advantage over its "competitors", that advantage is evaporating now. They may reinvent themselves, but history is littered with companies like TLS and the results aren't usually pretty.




Market isn't seeing it as ugly as you are Mac. $3.10 and steady.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 August 2011)

$3.11 in the close. I can't see tls becoming market litter in the near future. All the stars seem to be slowly coming into alignment.
NBN to take over from the copper network and pay ongoing lease for the access to the trenches; Leading edge technology being developed to take advantage of those wanting wireless mobility; and a massive marketing campaign underway to lift the customer base.

And the big factor appears to be Thodey, getting along with Government and focusing on getting on with the job of improving tls rather than engaging in media conflict with the government like his predecessors.


----------



## Muschu (30 August 2011)

Any idea what is going on today?  Has been as low as $2.92.  No announcements that I am aware of.....


----------



## notting (30 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Any idea what is going on today?  Has been as low as $2.92.  No announcements that I am aware of.....




ACCC has raised a little flag of concern saying - I want to look closer at it  - about the NBN deal. 
As it bloody well should! I am an Ausi, tax payer, internet, telephone user.
As well as TLS fan!
Traditionally the ACCC hates TLS. Sorry TLS.

It's still considered a defensive and is trading ex dividend.
The market was showing excited strength this morning.
It's not going to shoot the lights out just yet.
If it get's below 2.80 again I reckon it will be one of the last times for quite some time!!


----------



## Muschu (30 August 2011)

notting said:


> It's still considered a defensive and is trading ex dividend.
> The market was showing excited strength this morning.
> It's not going to shoot the lights out just yet.
> If it get's below 2.80 again I reckon it will be one of the last times for quite some time!!




Went XD some time ago though.  Just seems a bit strange.


----------



## notting (30 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Went XD some time ago though.  Just seems a bit strange.




It's still ex dividend - Meaning that it can and should trade at the dividend amount discounted from it's pay day price or worse for a few months if it's a bit of an old dog.  The ACCC thing will hang over it until it's resolved. 
You'd wanna be hoping the labor government isn't needling a ACCC to correct it's stupid deal.


----------



## brianwh (30 August 2011)

Muschu said:


> Any idea what is going on today?  Has been as low as $2.92.  No announcements that I am aware of.....




This seems to be what it is about Ric although not sure that I understand what the ACCC is having a problem with.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...aration-pd20110830-L859J?OpenDocument&src=hp1


----------



## Muschu (30 August 2011)

brianwh said:


> This seems to be what it is about Ric although not sure that I understand what the ACCC is having a problem with.
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...aration-pd20110830-L859J?OpenDocument&src=hp1




Thanks Brian  -- always place for a surprise I guess.


----------



## ROE (30 August 2011)

ROE said:


> Sold 80 TLSPN7 MAR 12 $3.1000 CALL @ $0.0800




Telstra on going history  , when the good get going for them, it always follow by some bad news and get hammer .... I do it all the time..good news write covered call


----------



## silence (6 September 2011)

ROE said:


> Telstra on going history  , when the good get going for them, it always follow by some bad news and get hammer .... I do it all the time..good news write covered call




Basically my method at the moment. Not a bad day for topping up today either..
Tempted to buy back my $3.10 call but even on sizeable parcels the options brokerage is a killer..


----------



## Dutchy3 (12 September 2011)

Is this a little opportunity opening up?

All the indicators say the overall market is out to lunch for a bit and yet TLS is bouncing around and getting itself into bit of a bind. I mention it as it can be levered heavily ...


----------



## nulla nulla (17 September 2011)

Recent highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher as well. TLS appears to be working upward breaking out of the downward channel of the last few years. 

IMO tls will need more good news in the too-ing and fro-ing going on between tls, the accc and the federal parliament to maintain the upward momentum. 




A positive vote at the agm for the restructure of tls and sale of access to nbn co might provide the impetous needed. I wouldn't be surprised to see tls test $3.36 in the next 5-6 weeks. If the news is bad, look for another dip below $3.00.


----------



## alexandro (23 September 2011)

The gap between the AllOrds (XAO) and TLS has now narrowed, as I felt it would in a post back in April-May.

It hasn't closed completely, but it's good enough. It shows the market has corrected TLS's value from being undervalued in the past 2 years. The market has also corrected the value of all the other large cap stocks from being overvalued.

TLS would have been the stock to switch to in April around the time of my post. Sell all CBA's, WBC's, ANZ's, NAB's, BHP's and WPL's and just put it all in TLS in April - the contrarian approach.

Now that TLS has caught up with other ASX stocks, could this now be indicating the time to switch back? That is, the price of banks and others are becoming cheap.


----------



## alexandro (25 September 2011)

If we had spent the 5 minutes to put a simple ruler up against the screen during 2007, we would have seen the credit fuelled deviation from the natural 27 year growth trend of Australian shares and the correction to come. 

Going by historical corrections (or over-corrections), looks like we have some way to go yet. It looks like XAO (All Ords) to 3700 or 3800 if we are lucky.

But in fact, the long term growth trend suggests the XAO has already gone too far down and we should be at 4600 right now.


----------



## notting (18 October 2011)

Telstra buy back.
Wonder if David Murray just trashed his office.


----------



## ROE (15 December 2011)

Things get awfully quiet around here when thing going good for TLS and it out performing
the index by a large margin buying around $2 something doesn't seem too bad after all 

maybe get another chance for $2 something again in the future and ride the double digit dividend


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## TMC93 (16 December 2011)

TLS is one of the only shares in my portfolio that has been stable since i purchased. Everyone told me it was a dog of a company (probably true if you bought at float) but i have always liked its outlook for 2011. 

One thing i have noticed in TLS is its change in customer service. I have an optus phone and telstra wireless broadband, i dont think i have ever resolved a problem with optus over the phone. In contrast, a few weeks ago my broadband password went down and my credit was gone when i woke up, telstra gave me a free recharge plus an apology. I think they have really started to pick their act up, coming out with impressive deals and good customer service. Both qualities are what i like to see in a company. 

My


----------



## Frank D (17 December 2011)

Frank D said:


> *TLS Primary cycles* If long i'd keep an eye on TLS but it might not breakout *until September...* it will be the first time since 2007 (#A) that TLS is above the Yearly 50% level and Quarterly high (#B)
> 
> This could see the trend continue to move upwards for the next 6-months.  (14th August 2011)




TLS 6-month trend continues, and currently stalled at the
 4th Quarter high @ 3.28

Any further gains as part of the 6-month Trend (2 quarters), and upper target
 is around 3.48 (where I would take profits)  2012 Yearly highs.


----------



## tinhat (20 December 2011)

Frank D said:


> TLS 6-month trend continues, and currently stalled at the
> 4th Quarter high @ 3.28
> 
> Any further gains as part of the 6-month Trend (2 quarters), and upper target
> is around 3.48 (where I would take profits)  2012 Yearly highs.




You can take the profits. I'll take the fully franked dividend.


----------



## alexandro (29 December 2011)

alexandro said:


> The characteristics of TLS have changed since its visit to 2.57 recently and the announcement that future fund holding was now down under 5%. It has become stronger and less of a dog. A tinge of bullishness.
> 
> It’s taking a long breather after a decent recovery from 2.57 but time is running out and it has to decide soon, up or down. It should go to at least to 2.94 for a start then test 3 again. That way it would have filled the trading gap between 2.94 to 2.81 created in February when it went ex-dividend. But the last few days trade where it added 1c per day from 2.83 to 84 to 85 was more that the All Ords tide was lifting all boats than any TLS strength action. Like a shy girl not quite ready, it did it but reluctantly and not yet convincingly. The desire must be stronger. What we need is a day soon where it closes up by at least 3-4c on volume above 60mil and a close above 2.85-86.
> 
> ...




We are nearing December 31st and I am happy with all my posts on TLS. Whilst many were negative on this stock and gave me grief with their posts (grief because I had bought and was holding 500,000 of them and it was serious for me), i could sense that change had arrived on TLS way back in November 2010 and earlier on this year in April. It was hard to ignore the negative but i went with my views and was rewarded.


----------



## nulla nulla (29 December 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> Recent highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher as well. TLS appears to be working upward breaking out of the downward channel of the last few years.
> 
> IMO tls will need more good news in the too-ing and fro-ing going on between tls, the accc and the federal parliament to maintain the upward momentum.
> 
> ...




TLS tapped $3.38, although a few weeks behind schedule. When it continued to track sideways through October/November I considered that TLS would be unlikely to reach the $3.36 until the run-up to the next dividend in March 2012. Blowed if I know where it will go now?


----------



## McCoy Pauley (12 January 2012)

Apparently a few brokers covering TLS changed their rating on TLS to a combination of "sell" or "hold", on valuation grounds.

This would partly explain the sell-off of TLS over the last two trading days (including today).


----------



## Boggo (12 January 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Apparently a few brokers covering TLS changed their rating on TLS to a combination of "sell" or "hold", on valuation grounds.




That means its gonna go up, they were saying "hold", "buy" and "accumulate" when it was falling off a ledge.

The only bit they were right about was the dividend yield was excellent (a result of the falling price !)


----------



## notting (12 January 2012)

Yeah, I've also heard a chorus of brokers chanting that the buy hold strategy of ‘yesteryear’ is over and that you really have to be managing and active with your protfollio!!
Wonder if that means buy hold is on again starting, I don't know, two days ago!

Funny that Warren Buffet is also on the front of this Weeks Time Magazine subtitled with 'The Optimist'

First of all, I thought that print like 'Time' would have gone the way of the dinosaurs and so should have Buffet according to all these brokers.  Looks like he's filled up big time.
Alleluia I think it's a sign!


----------



## Boggo (12 January 2012)

notting said:


> Yeah, I've also heard a chorus of brokers chanting that the buy hold strategy of ‘yesteryear’ is over and that you really have to be managing and active with your protfollio!!




I wonder if that is because the XAO is now at the same level it was in March 2005 and they have just worked out that buy and hold only works if you are going in one of the two available directions !!


----------



## notting (12 January 2012)

Boggo said:


> XAO is now at the same level it was in March 2005



Really? what about dividends and capital raising baught into. I guess real wealth can be deceptive and hence illusive. Sidewise is third dimention!


----------



## Boggo (13 January 2012)

And don't forget CPI, inflation and the MER (fund 'adviser' fees) etc over seven years, how is the third dimension looking now ?

_A Buy & Hold investor using the State Street ASX-200 ETF (STW) has a total return of -1.96% (incl. divs) since May 2006, an annualized return of -0.348%._ - Radge 2012


----------



## notting (13 January 2012)

Pretty good! Warrens OK!
 In two years time maybe swimming in it!  
Though I am referring to a well considered portfolio of well managed companies not a fund managed thing.
CBA,ANZ,WOW,UGL,COH,ARB,MTU,GCL,AGO, APA.
if I sold in March 2009 You'd be right! 
But a buy and hold culture tends to sell when eyes are popping out of your head not when they are dripping!
 That's what longer termers tend to do as well as improving the value by topping up on big dips, capital raisings and reinvesting unfranked dividends,which is also not reflected in blanket charts that in reality do not reflect underlying value!


----------



## Julia (13 January 2012)

notting said:


> That's what longer termers tend to do as well as improving the value by topping up on big dips, capital raisings and reinvesting unfranked dividends,which is also not reflected in blanket charts that in reality do not reflect underlying value!



What's the relevance of  "underlying value" if it's not actually making you money?
You can attribute whatever 'underlying value' you like to a stock, but unless the SP is rising (unless you're shorting) it is simply not going to make you money.


----------



## notting (13 January 2012)

Who said its not making u money?
The longer termers that I know who do the above have multiple holiday houses, real nice cars and a relaxed demeanours.
 Though they do tend to be in for much longer than than 5 years where u really see some staggering gains!!!!
Not in TLS of course but that was obvious.


----------



## Frank D (17 January 2012)

*TLS Primary and Secondary cycles*

2012 Primary target remains 3.58

Currently hitting resistance around the January highs :- 3.40/43 (secondary cycle)

1st Quarter support  @ 3.21-24 (secondary cycle)

long term 2012 Primary support @ 3.09


----------



## CNHTractor (20 February 2012)

I see the dividend date for TLS is today 20th Feb - does that mean if i buy today I am entitled to the dividend or is it already ex dividend. i see the price has dropped today.


----------



## Chasero (20 February 2012)

CNHTractor said:


> I see the dividend date for TLS is today 20th Feb - does that mean if i buy today I am entitled to the dividend or is it already ex dividend. i see the price has dropped today.




I think today is the ex-div date.

i.e. if you buy today you are NOT entitled to the dividend.

someone pls correct me if i'm wrong. Not 100% certain.


----------



## McLovin (20 February 2012)

It is ex-div today, ie you will not get the dividend if you buy today. Hence the SP fall.


----------



## CNHTractor (20 February 2012)

Chasero said:


> I think today is the ex-div date.
> 
> i.e. if you buy today you are NOT entitled to the dividend.
> 
> someone pls correct me if i'm wrong. Not 100% certain.




Yes sorry - it was a dumb question. I had another look. Yes it is ex div today


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## Bintang (28 February 2012)

Structural Separation of Telstra:
Does anyone know what this means for TLS shares. Will they be split?


----------



## ROE (28 February 2012)

Bintang said:


> Structural Separation of Telstra:
> Does anyone know what this means for TLS shares. Will they be split?




yeah split the retail from the whole sale ..

Telstra keep retails, they flocking the wholesale network like duct, pipes and stuff to NBN
for $11B.

NBN will then eventually control the new infrastructure and Telstra is just a retail and content providers ....buying infrastructure from NBN and retail it back to customers and get their margin...

Price already been factoring in that TLS will get 11B and they free to use the 11B on how they wished..

war chest to kill off rival, paid more dividend, share buy back, debt repayment 
up to Thodey and the board to deploy that capital.

I dont think they do a spin off like you see other business like fosters ....TLS just separate the wholesale from retail
so that whole sale can go to NBN...


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## Bill M (28 February 2012)

ROE said:


> Price already been factoring in that TLS will get 11B and they free to use the 11B on how they wished..
> 
> war chest to kill off rival, paid more dividend, share buy back, debt repayment
> up to Thodey and the board to deploy that capital.
> ...




I think a nice fully franked capital return for the long suffering shareholders would be the right thing to do, come on Thodey, think of all those loyal Mums and Dads that paid $8.40 a share.

Disclosure: I hold TLS and a capital return would be very nice indeed.


----------



## notting (28 February 2012)

Bill M said:


> I think a nice fully franked capital return for the long suffering shareholders would be the right thing to do.




NA, invest in new wireless and make the NBN redundant before its even finished. Rudd policy on the hop deserves to be humiliated.

Was grimacing whatching Conroy try to speak today. He was crapping on about how much better the fibre to the home was as apposed to the node. Failed to mention the massive upfront cost that will not be recouped or ever be justified especially when it is quickly superseded by wireless everything!
Julia noted strongly that it was a vote winner for the hillbillys!!
Lear Jets r better transport to the country than buses, but it's a bit expensive even if it's a vote winner - Labor all over!:swear:


----------



## McCoy Pauley (29 February 2012)

notting said:


> *NA, invest in new wireless and make the NBN redundant before its even finished. Rudd policy on the hop deserves to be humiliated.*
> 
> Was grimacing whatching Conroy try to speak today. He was crapping on about how much better the fibre to the home was as apposed to the node. Failed to mention the massive upfront cost that will not be recouped or ever be justified especially when it is quickly superseded by wireless everything!
> Julia noted strongly that it was a vote winner for the hillbillys!!
> Lear Jets r better transport to the country than buses, but it's a bit expensive even if it's a vote winner - Labor all over!:swear:




You do realise, of course, that the laws of physics dictate that wireless will never make the NBN redundant, don't you.

Abbott, Turnbull and co might overturn the NBN but a wireless network will never replicate the performance the NBN will offer, if it's built.


----------



## nulla nulla (24 March 2012)

Having gone ex-div the telstra share price has retraced by the equivelent of the div and the franking credit arround $3.22. Heavy selling early this week (reminiscent of the future funds desperation to unload their holding) saw the share price hit a low of $3.18 before rebounding with very good volume buying at $3.19 - $3.20. 





tls needs to break back above $3.28 if it is to continue the slow northbound trip otherwise it risks falling back to support levels arround $3.12.


----------



## Boggo (24 March 2012)

MTPredictor's view of a setup on TLS at the moment.
The figures are based on $ at risk + brokerage of $1000 max.

(click to expand)


----------



## MrBurns (29 March 2012)

I was about to put a lot of cash into TLS because I'm sick of 5% in a TD.

However I have been told that the dividend guarantee expires in 2013, is that correct ? and if so that surely must mean a lower return and a depressed share price.


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## McLovin (29 March 2012)

MrBurns said:


> However I have been told that the dividend guarantee expires in 2013, is that correct ? and if so that surely must mean a lower return and a depressed share price.




If you're looking for guarantees equities are not the place to be, my friend.

I was pretty anti TLS (you can see in this thread) not so much anymore. I still can't make sense of the $11b PV of those payments and why they discounted at 10%, nor have I seen anyone else who can explain it. My guess is that this is a political hot potato and neither the government or TLS wants the heat that will be felt if they actually discounted it at a more appropriate rate and came up with a value closer to $20b.

I should add I'm long TLS.


----------



## MrBurns (29 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> If you're looking for guarantees equities are not the place to be, my friend.
> 
> I was pretty anti TLS (you can see in this thread) not so much anymore. I still can't make sense of the $11b PV of those payments and why they discounted at 10%, nor have I seen anyone else who can explain it. My guess is that this is a political hot potato and neither the government or TLS wants the heat that will be felt if they actually discounted it at a more appropriate rate and came up with a value closer to $20b.




I know the risks with equities but when I read you can get $170k PA franked from an investment of $2M my head was turned, share prices go up and down but it's worth the risk with those returns and a "safe" share such as TLS but my knowledge of these things is almost zero, I glaze over at the thought of research I guess because I've got no idea what to research.


----------



## silence (29 March 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I was about to put a lot of cash into TLS because I'm sick of 5% in a TD.
> 
> However I have been told that the dividend guarantee expires in 2013, is that correct ? and if so that surely must mean a lower return and a depressed share price.




I believe the amount is sustainable after that based on their earnings now, however it may still be a turning point either way, really depends if they have anything to invest in or decide to just remain a mature cash cow from this point.


----------



## MrBurns (29 March 2012)

silence said:


> I believe the amount is sustainable after that based on their earnings now, however it may still be a turning point either way, really depends if they have anything to invest in or decide to just remain a mature cash cow from this point.




Suppose I'd be better to consider it after 2013 .....


----------



## nulla nulla (1 April 2012)

Telstra has enjoyed a steady runup since the $2.60 lows of November 2010 reaching a spike of $3.45 in early February 2012. An excellent gain plus a few divs for anyone that bought at $2.60 and has held on (I didn't hold on).   Rallying off the ex-div low of $3.18 tls rebounded to test $3.31 through the week.




However, I can't help but feel that the recent spike to $3.45 (before it went ex-div) was a bubble that may have burst. Trading since the start of this year has been pretty much sideways and down. All the good news of NBN deal approval, ACC restructure approval and Foxtel taking over Austar etc seems to be eroded by negatives arround sensis (yellow pages) and the ability of tls to maintain the annual div of $0.28 fully franked. Add to that the certainty that Labor will be gone next election and the uncertainty as to what the Libs will do to NBN and you have a very nervous environment.


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## McLovin (10 April 2012)

Good news today on the approval of the AUN takeover by Foxtel. I think this plays well for TLS. If they can get Jimmy P to sell his stake too even better.

Who else is going to be able to bundle pay TV, broadband and mobile broadband except TLS?


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## boofhead (10 April 2012)

Optus wholesales 3G. Such wholesale customers can offer FetchTV, 3G, ADSL/Fibre and other services.


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## McLovin (10 April 2012)

boofhead said:


> Optus wholesales 3G. Such wholesale customers can offer FetchTV, 3G, ADSL/Fibre and other services.




Yeah, I use Optus 3G sometimes. Data coverage is sketchy and I'm in Sydney. Not as bad as Vodafone/3, mind you. 

The value add of Foxtel is in live sport, IMO. Once streaming and downloading movies takes off, exclusive content is where the cash will be.


----------



## Boggo (13 April 2012)

Follow up from my previous post -
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=692578&viewfull=1#post692578

Still slowly going in the right direction, I think I am becoming an investor 

(click to expand)


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

What's the bottom line here, will TLS tank once the dividend guarantee expires in 2013 ?


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> What's the bottom line here, will TLS tank once the dividend guarantee expires in 2013 ?




It depends whether you think the dividend is sustainable.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> It depends whether you think the dividend is sustainable.




and ?


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> and ?




What do you think?


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> What do you think?




I supose it depends if the dividend is sustainable


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I supose it depends if the dividend is sustainable




And at some point _you_ will have to decide if it is. It is your money after all.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> And at some point _you_ will have to decide if it is. It is your money after all.




I'm glad I'm in a forum where people know shares or I'd be in real trouble.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I'm glad I'm in a forum where people know shares or I'd be in real trouble.




Why the eye rolling? This website isn't for hand holding, it's for sharing knowledge and educating eachother.

I asked whether you thought the dividend is sustainable, I think it is, but for all you know I could be the worst investor in the world. Don't you think if you're considering investing a sum of money into TLS you'd benefit from being able to form at least a basic understanding of where the company is headed instead of relying on others spoon feeding yes or no answers to you? 

Things you need to think about include:
- What is the effect of the NBN on TLS; 
- will they continue to expand their mobiles business; 
- will they be able to capitalise on increasing mobile data or will they just become the seller of a commodity product; 
- what is the actual value of the NBN cash payment to TLS worth to the business; 
- how will a change of government affect that payment.

You could keep rattling off things but I'm sure you get the picture.

The question "is the dividend sustainable?" is not as simple as a yes or no. Without knowing the inputs, the actual answer is of limited use.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> Why the eye rolling? This website isn't for hand holding, it's for sharing knowledge and educating eachother.




Thats why I asked a question but you only gave me a question in reply.



> instead of relying on others spoon feeding yes or no answers to you?




You mean give an opinion on a question asked don't you.
Next time you ask a question I hope I'm around to remind you not to be expected to be spoon fed.



> Things you need to think about include:
> - What is the effect of the NBN on TLS;
> - will they continue to expand their mobiles business;
> - will they be able to capitalise on increasing mobile data or will they just become the seller of a commodity product;
> ...




I understand all that.



> The question "is the dividend sustainable?" is not as simple as a yes or no. Without knowing the inputs, the actual answer is of limited use.




The opinion might come from someone who knows a bit more than you, next time someone asks a question if you cant answer it just stay out of it rather than just contribute smart **** remarks.


----------



## Klogg (13 April 2012)

Not to shoot you down, but there are few people on these forums that would be better placed to answer your question. And from what I've read, he's just trying to promote thinking for one's self...

Anyway, back to TLS.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

Klogg said:


> he's just trying to promote thinking for one's self...
> Anyway, back to TLS.




Well then lets shut the whole thing down, asking opinions is redundant.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I understand all that.




Right, and so what do you think? Why do you have to take everything as some sort of personal attack?


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> Right, and so what do you think? Why do you have to take everything as some sort of personal attack?




Because you didnt give an answer or opinion to my question you just threw it back to me, which is a bloody waste of time frankly.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

I think there's every chance the shares will tank because the dividend is no longer guaranteed and Telstra aren't known for their talents other then what's hand fed to them by the Govt, just thought someone else might see it differently.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Because you didnt give an answer or opinion to my question you just threw it back to me, which is a bloody waste of time frankly.




Yes I did...



> I asked whether you thought *the dividend is sustainable, I think it is*, but for all you know I could be the worst investor in the world.




So what is your opinion?


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I think there's every chance the shares will tank because the dividend is no longer guaranteed and Telstra aren't known for their talents other then what's hand fed to them by the Govt, just thought someone else might see it differently.




Thanks.

I disagree. I think the value of the NBN payments is being understated (they used a NPV of the cash flow rather than the nominal value of the cash payments).

They definitely have issues but Thodey actually seems to have some idea about how to transform what is an engineering company into marketing company. The recent deal with Foxtel and Austar (and the possibility of Packer selling his Foxtel stake) will give TLS the strongest position to offer a bundled NBN package. On top of that they have the best mobile network and the mobile data will keep growing exponentially.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> Yes I did...
> So what is your opinion?




You're just playing games and clogging up the flow of information please take your self righteous BS and try it on someone else.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> Thanks.
> 
> I disagree. I think the value of the NBN payments is being understated (they used a NPV of the cash flow rather than the nominal value of the cash payments).
> 
> They definitely have issues but Thodey actually seems to have some idea about how to transform what is an engineering company into marketing company. The recent deal with Foxtel and Austar (and the possibility of Packer selling his Foxtel stake) will give TLS the strongest position to offer a bundled NBN package. On top of that they have the best mobile network and the mobile data will keep growing exponentially.




Why couldnt you have just said that in the first place.........thats all I wanted.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Why couldnt you have just said that in the first place.........thats all I wanted.




'Cause I'm full of self righteous BS, and I honestly believe that you get more out of offering an opinion than being told an opinion.

My intent wasn't to offend you.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> 'Cause I'm full of self righteous BS, and I honestly believe that you get more out of offering an opinion than being told an opinion.
> 
> My intent wasn't to offend you.




Thats fine but you dont have to approach it like a school master, if you had have offered your opinion first then asked for mine it would have been different.

Argument over... I'm really fed up with forum scraps, they achieve nothing do they.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Argument over... I'm really fed up with forum scraps, they achieve nothing do they.




They do not.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> They do not.




I'm a little nervy as I might put a substantial piece of the farm into TLS soon, I know it's a gamble no matter how much information you have so just trying to get the drift of feeling out there and opinions in here are worth something, not that I would rely on them exclusively.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I'm a little nervy as I might put a substantial piece of the farm into TLS soon, I know it's a gamble no matter how much information you have so just trying to get the drift of feeling out there and opinions in here are worth something, not that I would rely on them exclusively.




TLS is in a pretty unique position, even by the standard of former government telcos. They own the largest mobile network (and can charge a premium to use it and are growing customers) they own half (and possibly 75% soonish) of the only pay TV operator in Australia, which will also be the sole provider of non-FTA sports broadcasting, including internet. The ACCC has said they do not have to share that, meaning if you want to watch the AFL/NRL you will need Foxtel, which TLS wil 100% I'm sure start bundling with their NBN service and possibly even mobile. They have given undertakings that they will not compete against the NBN by offering mobile data, but I will believe that when I see it. Finally, there is the NPV $11b in cash payments. The discount rate is 10%, which seems high when 10 year government bonds are below 5%.

It seems to me to be pretty difficult to see a scenario where TLS is not at least maintaining it's profitability. And the dividend is very nice.


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> TLS is in a pretty unique position, even by the standard of former government telcos. They own the largest mobile network (and can charge a premium to use it and are growing customers) they own half (and possibly 75% soonish) of the only pay TV operator in Australia, which will also be the sole provider of non-FTA sports broadcasting, including internet. The ACCC has said they do not have to share that, meaning if you want to watch the AFL/NRL you will need Foxtel, which TLS wil 100% I'm sure start bundling with their NBN service and possibly even mobile. They have given undertakings that they will not compete against the NBN by offering mobile data, but I will believe that when I see it. Finally, there is the NPV $11b in cash payments. The discount rate is 10%, which seems high when 10 year government bonds are below 5%.
> 
> It seems to me to be pretty difficult to see a scenario where TLS is not at least maintaining it's profitability. And the dividend is very nice.




Thanks for that, now I'll integrate that with my research method, a bottle of scotch and roll the dice

Sounds like a fair bet though


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks for that, now I'll integrate that with my research method, a bottle of scotch and roll the dice




I'm sucking back on a 30 year old Laphroig. It was given to me, I don't really drink scotch but this is pretty tasty. My jaw hit the floor when I saw what it was worth!


----------



## MrBurns (13 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> I'm sucking back on a 30 year old Laphroig. It was given to me, I don't really drink scotch but this is pretty tasty. My jaw hit the floor when I saw what it was worth!




Not to wander of topic for long but I drink brandy when I drink spriits, as a mate of mine once said, gets you where you want to go quicker. We're a classy lot.


----------



## McLovin (13 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Not to wander of topic for long but I drink brandy when I drink spriits, as a mate of mine once said, gets you where you want to go quicker. We're a classy lot.




I think I'm about 50 years too young to be drinking brandy.


----------



## Julia (13 April 2012)

Klogg said:


> Not to shoot you down, but there are few people on these forums that would be better placed to answer your question. And from what I've read, he's just trying to promote thinking for one's self...



Absolutely my impression also.

I'd say ten out of ten to McLovin for tolerance and patience, not to mention quality of information offered.
I wouldn't have been so generous in the circumstances.


----------



## So_Cynical (14 April 2012)

For what's its worth...any company wanting access to the NBN will have to pay annual fees of around 25 million (from memory), making it rather cost prohibiting for new entrants, so with that basic cost...size matters and customer base MATTERS.

After all's said and done there will be 4 to 5 major players...Telstra will be #1


----------



## Klogg (14 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> I think I'm about 50 years too young to be drinking brandy.




Ouch! At 25years of age, I have quite the cognac collection, haha.


----------



## McLovin (14 April 2012)

Klogg said:


> Ouch! At 25years of age, I have quite the cognac collection, haha.




My grandmother used to have her friends over to play cards and they'd bring a bottle of Chateau Tanunda so that's probably where my opinion is formed.


----------



## notting (14 April 2012)

It's annoying me that the NBN is probably going to be run at a massive loss and creating a big debt to disguise costs and make it look like users are getting a better deal from the new structure.  When in fact they are just paying for it through inevitable taxes.  All this on top of the massive build cost.

I haven't actually seen any figures on that.


----------



## tinhat (19 April 2012)

Announcement:

Dividend guidance 28c for 11/12 and 12/13 confirmed.

Free cash flow over the next three years (including NBN payments) expected to be $2-3 billion. This is subject to NBN roll-out.

Preference for capital management is to pay fully franked dividends but there won't be enough franking credits to increase dividends until 2014.


----------



## McLovin (19 April 2012)

Good announcement. As tinhat said, they have basically said that they will have an additional $2-3b in FCF over the next three years. While they could do an on-market buy-back the shareholders they have spoken to (in all likelihood ff divvie hungry superfunds) have said they would prefer an increase in FF dividends. This won't occur until 2014.

The change in the tone of management is palpable to the combative agressive tone TLS was taking 5 years ago. It's easier to swim with the current than against it.

Interestingly, Thodey mentioned that Frank Blount (TLS CEO back in the 90's) had estimated that TLS would receive no copper wire voice revenue by 2010.

TLS also reconfirmed that a change of government would not affect the company wrt to cash flow from the NBN.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 April 2012)

The irrational push down on opening after the release of the Investor Update was hard to understand or ignore. I felt the report was positive and didn't warrant the drop in opening price. A quick entry at $3.31 shortly after open with the sell listed immediatley for $3.39 saw one of the easiest 2.4% gains by close of trade for a long time.


----------



## McLovin (20 April 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> The irrational push down on opening after the release of the Investor Update was hard to understand or ignore. I felt the report was positive and didn't warrant the drop in opening price. A quick entry at $3.31 shortly after open with the sell listed immediatley for $3.39 saw one of the easiest 2.4% gains by close of trade for a long time.




Yeah it was puzzling. I can only surmise that some people had taken positions based on a buyback being announced. When the catalyst didn't materialise, they closed out their positions.


----------



## tinhat (20 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> Yeah it was puzzling. I can only surmise that some people had taken positions based on a buyback being announced. When the catalyst didn't materialise, they closed out their positions.




I looked at the price after hearing the announcement this morning and was quite surprised too. $3.33  or less represents 12% or more yield including franking credits. Such a nice number.


----------



## ROE (24 April 2012)

This dog with flees now has its day in the Sun.

I like dog with decent cash flow because the day will come when it has its day in the sun again and those Sun ray start burning those flees off pretty quick ...

My Motto buy the most hated stock with good cash flow 

http://www.theage.com.au/business/telstra-shares-shine-amid-the-gloom-20120423-1xh8o.html


----------



## McLovin (24 April 2012)

ROE said:


> This dog with flees now has its day in the Sun.
> 
> I like dog with decent cash flow because the day will come when it has its day in the sun again and those Sun ray start burning those flees off pretty quick ...
> 
> ...




And the best bit is, in 18 months time people will still be telling us what a dog it is. It's a conservative group of managers who seem to have their eyes on the ball. They've telegraphed that the dividend will be maintained and then will rise in 2014.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2012)

Looks like I've missed the boat on TLS, would have made $50k if I'd jumped in a few weeks ago.


----------



## Boggo (24 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Looks like I've missed the boat on TLS, would have made $50k if I'd jumped in a few weeks ago.




A bit of a heads up a month ago Mr B, a nice ABC correction on an uptrend, nearly at the first target today.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=692578


----------



## sammy84 (24 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Looks like I've missed the boat on TLS, would have made $50k if I'd jumped in a few weeks ago.




Mr Burns, I don't mean this in an offensive way but I think you're best not to invest in shares.

You're indecisiveness and inability to make an independent choice regarding whether or not to invest is clear from many of your posts on this forum. How will you know when to sell? How will you deal with an unexpected news item? 

Might be best to let someone else handle your money. Could guarantee that a large proportion of your stock standard fund managers are invested in Telstra anyway.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Mr Burns, I don't mean this in an offensive way but I think you're best not to invest in shares.
> 
> You're indecisiveness and inability to make an independent choice regarding whether or not to invest is clear from many of your posts on this forum. How will you know when to sell? How will you deal with an unexpected news item?
> 
> Might be best to let someone else handle your money. Could guarantee that a large proportion of your stock standard fund managers are invested in Telstra anyway.




I think you're right, now back in a TD.........until I see an opportunity that even I can recognise.
All the publicity about TLS lately, share dividend guaranteed till 2014 loads of cash etc have done this, I was hesitant.....never mind.


----------



## Muschu (24 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Looks like I've missed the boat on TLS, would have made $50k if I'd jumped in a few weeks ago.




Wow -- Making $50k on a stock that has gone up 20c in 3 weeks ?  My calculation is 250,000 shares... 0r over $800k....


----------



## Julia (24 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Looks like I've missed the boat on TLS, would have made $50k if I'd jumped in a few weeks ago.



Ah, the joy of hindsight.
Your remark above, Burnsie, goes to the correctness of Sammy's advice imo.



Muschu said:


> Wow -- Making $50k on a stock that has gone up 20c in 3 weeks ?  My calculation is 250,000 shares... 0r over $800k....



Hopefully Mr Burns will tell us he wasn't seriously considering any such very considerable amount in a single company.


----------



## Muschu (24 April 2012)

Julia said:


> Ah, the joy of hindsight.
> Your remark above, Burnsie, goes to the correctness of Sammy's advice imo.
> 
> 
> Hopefully Mr Burns will tell us he wasn't seriously considering any such very considerable amount in a single company.




Having said that Julia, TLS is our biggest hold since the chart started trending up from under $3.  But of course all our eggs are not in the TLS basket.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2012)

Julia said:


> Ah, the joy of hindsight.
> Your remark above, Burnsie, goes to the correctness of Sammy's advice imo.
> 
> 
> Hopefully Mr Burns will tell us he wasn't seriously considering any such very considerable amount in a single company.




I was a about to, the signs all looked good PLUS interest rates are about to go down so watch it rise again.


----------



## Frank D (25 April 2012)

Frank D;  Jan 2012 said:
			
		

> *TLS Primary and Secondary cycles*
> 
> 2012 Primary target remains 3.58
> 
> ...





it began with the 3-year breakout pattern (primary cycle) in the 3rd quarter of 
2011 ....

Stalled at its february highs @ 3.45 and reversed down towards its secondary
support

found dynamic secondary cycle support in March @ 3.19....

and is now making its way towards the *Primary target of 3.58.*

Random resistance 3.49/52


----------



## Boggo (26 April 2012)

Frank D said:


> Stalled at its february highs @ 3.45 and reversed down towards its secondary
> support
> 
> found dynamic secondary cycle support in March @ 3.19....
> ...




Nice and predictable behaviour Frank, well done.

First target zone achieved today on mine.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=692578&viewfull=1#post692578

(click to expand)


----------



## tinhat (26 April 2012)

Boggo said:


> Nice and predictable behaviour Frank, well done.
> 
> First target zone achieved today on mine.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=692578&viewfull=1#post692578




Just goes to show that there are all sorts of people that make up a market. You are in the market to trade for capital gain and have your charts and elliot wave analysis software on the go.

I've got a spreadsheet open with my current holding's buy prices and am working out what my fully franked yield will be if I add to my holdings over a range of potential prices. Aiming to top up a pension fund account while maintaining 12% grossed up yield. I've got a buy order in now that probably won't get filled today. I'll be happy for a pull back though.


----------



## Boggo (26 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> Just goes to show that there are all sorts of people that make up a market. You are in the market *to trade for capital gain* and have your charts and elliot wave analysis software on the go.
> 
> I've got a spreadsheet open with my current holding's buy prices and am working out what my *fully franked yield* will be if I add to my holdings over a range of potential prices. Aiming to top up a pension fund account while maintaining 12% grossed up yield. I've got a buy order in now that probably won't get filled today. I'll be happy for a pull back though.




And I get both the capital gain and the franking credits and I only hold TLS via instalment warrants for about two months a year, thank you for TLSIOU and TLSIOI for the last two dividend profits and franking credits (and current profit position).

Good to see we both enjoy a good pull back


----------



## MrBurns (27 April 2012)

Ok when the Libs take over they say they will scrap the NBN.

If they do how will that effect Telstra and the share price ???


----------



## Klogg (27 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Ok when the Libs take over they say they will scrap the NBN.
> 
> If they do how will that effect Telstra and the share price ???




The Libs still want to go with Fibre to the node (as opposed to Fibre to the home), so all is not lost. There is still work and Telstra will still benefit - actually, Thodey recently came out in support of this, so I can't imagine it'd hurt the company much...


----------



## MrBurns (27 April 2012)

much........ok thanks but it will have some effect.

At current price showing about 8% yield, not worth risking capital for an extra 2% above TD rates.


----------



## Bintang (27 April 2012)

Its 8% fully franked!  Is your TD interest fully franked?


----------



## MrBurns (27 April 2012)

Bintang said:


> Its 8% fully franked!  Is your TD interest fully franked?




I don't pay tax at present, get a nice refund though


----------



## McLovin (27 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> much........ok thanks but it will have some effect.




Thodey actually said words to the effect that he thought the coalition's idea was better than the government's. The Coalition's idea involves renting the last mile of copper off TLS, rather than the Government's idea of cabling everywhere and paying TLS to decomission its network.

He wouldn't be talking up an increasing dividend if he believed that change of government would materially change TLS's financial position.


----------



## MrBurns (27 April 2012)

McLovin said:


> Thodey actually said words to the effect that he thought the coalition's idea was better than the government's. The Coalition's idea involves renting the last mile of copper off TLS, rather than the Government's idea of cabling everywhere and paying TLS to decomission its network.
> 
> He wouldn't be talking up an increasing dividend if he believed that change of government would materially change TLS's financial position.




So result would be the same as what we have on the table now or close enough.....as far as TLS goes.


----------



## McLovin (27 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> So result would be the same as what we have on the table now or close enough.....as far as TLS goes.




That's my take. They're pretty conservative at TLS.


----------



## tinhat (27 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I don't pay tax at present, get a nice refund though




That's the whole point. Example:

You own 1,000 TLS shares.

You receive $280 dividends for FY12 (@28c per share). These dividends are fully franked so you receive an imputation credit (franking credit) of 12c per share which is a credit for the tax TLS paid on those dividends. Total franking credit is $120.

You declare a total income received in your tax return of $400 (being the $280 received in cash and the $120 received as a franking credit). The $120 franking credit is offset against the tax you owe the ATO for the financial year. If your franking credits are in excess of the tax you owe, the ATO refunds you the difference. If you don't owe the ATO any income tax they refund you the full amount of the franking credits ($120).

[edit to add...] Think of the imputation credits as a credit note with the ATO. Telstra have paid you $280 in cash and given you a credit note with the ATO which is good for $120. If you owe the ATO income tax you use the credit note to offset what you owe the ATO. If the imputation credit exceeds what you owe the ATO they refund you the difference in cash.

Please read some general investing and stock market investing books. You need to be able to calculate the after tax returns on your investments.


----------



## MrBurns (27 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> That's the whole point. Example:




Thanks tinhat I havent done my own tax since the 70's and I dont have a clue and havent bothered to educate myself.

TLS will go up further when rates go down after the next RBA meeting (I asked Bill Shorten when that wil be but he doesnt know) then I think the market wil strike a balance of return against risk, if the market panics and tanks that will be the time to get in I presume.


----------



## Boggo (27 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> That's the whole point. Example:
> 
> You own 1,000 TLS shares.
> 
> You receive $280 dividends for FY12 (@28c per share). These dividends are fully franked so you receive an imputation credit (franking credit) of 12c per share which is a credit for the tax TLS paid on those dividends. Total franking credit is $120.




Or, you buy 2250 TLSIOI instalment warrants for the same cost as 1000 TLS shares, you now get $630 dividend, fully franked and if you buy them in a SMSF which pays 15% tax you now get a 15% tax credit towards any other profits for that FY.
Oh, and for the fans of yield, that is around 18% 

Of course this is not advice, but you know that.


----------



## tinhat (27 April 2012)

Boggo said:


> Or, you buy 2250 TLSIOI instalment warrants for the same cost as 1000 TLS shares, you now get $630 dividend, fully franked and if you buy them in a SMSF which pays 15% tax you now get a 15% tax credit towards any other profits for that FY.
> 
> Of course this is not advice, but you know that.




Boggo of course you are taking on the additional risk of gearing. You aren't buying an immediate income stream because you need to use the dividends to pay the instalments (and interest). You get the benefits of the additional franking credits due to the gearing so as you say, quite tax affective. I can see how they are attractive to  a SMSF account in accumulation phase.

If a SMSF is in pension phase however, it needs to generate an income stream of at least the minimum draw down rate.

Anyway, because I don't know anything much about warrants, can I ask, what are the differences between self funded instalment warrants versus regular instalment warrants? I've never learnt about warrants - I only started actively managing a share portfolio two years ago due to a death in the family. Until then all my super was in an industry fund and my personal savings went into boats.

Also, if I understand you, you have been buying the instalment warrants on the secondary market and holding them briefly just for the franking credits? Is that right? I assume then that the standard 45 day holding rule applies?

Cheers

PS. Your signature should read "if you can read this you can Google".


----------



## Muschu (27 April 2012)

Boggo said:


> Or, you buy 2250 TLSIOI instalment warrants for the same cost as 1000 TLS shares, you now get $630 dividend, fully franked and if you buy them in a SMSF which pays 15% tax you now get a 15% tax credit towards any other profits for that FY.
> Oh, and for the fans of yield, that is around 18%
> 
> Of course this is not advice, but you know that.




Question:  I just checked and there were no TLSIOI trades today.  One buyer and 2 sellers.  Not exactly high liquidity.  If things go pear-shaped and you want out..... what happens?


----------



## skyQuake (27 April 2012)

Muschu said:


> Question:  I just checked and there were no TLSIOI trades today.  One buyer and 2 sellers.  Not exactly high liquidity.  If things go pear-shaped and you want out..... what happens?




Marketmakers keep a bid and ask there. Generally spread a bit more than the underlying. Highly recommend you read the entire PDS if you decide to do business with warrant marketmakers


----------



## Boggo (27 April 2012)

tinhat said:


> Boggo of course you are taking on the additional risk of gearing. You aren't buying an immediate income stream because you need to use the dividends to pay the instalments (and interest). You get the benefits of the additional franking credits due to the gearing so as you say, quite tax affective. I can see how they are attractive to  a SMSF account in accumulation phase.
> 
> If a SMSF is in pension phase however, it needs to generate an income stream of at least the minimum draw down rate.
> 
> ...




Re your first paragraph, yes, they are very effective but you need to understand the type of warrant and where it is in its life as well as the greeks especially delta if you are in for a hit and run approach.
The interest is treated differently in a SMSF than a personal account.
If a stock is in an uptrend you can buy and hold, collect the divvy and after a correction the stock will proceed in its upward direction.
If the stock is in a downtrend then you may be able to capitalise on the run up to the dividend but it may not be a wise move to hold for the dividend if it is likely to turn and maintain a downward trend ("the trend is your friend" always).

Re your second paragraph, you can do both ?

Re your third paragraph, you buy and sell them just like any stock. If you are buying them in a SMSF then you need one of these for compliance...
http://www.lawcentral.com.au/CreateDoc/createlink.asp?docId=207

The 45 day rule has a few variables depending on account type and $ values etc, nothing is straight forward.

Your PS re Google, I could write pages but Google is the way to go as well as the ASX site. Citi warrants are probably the best provider of warrants at the moment - http://www.citifirst.com.au/Installs_price.html




Muschu said:


> Question:  I just checked and there were no TLSIOI trades today.  One buyer and 2 sellers.  Not exactly high liquidity.  If things go pear-shaped and you want out..... what happens?




Muschu, you need to read up a bit on how they work, look at the depth, as long as you have liquidity in the underlying the rest is up to the market maker as skyQuake says below.



skyQuake said:


> Marketmakers keep a bid and ask there. Generally spread a bit more than the underlying. Highly recommend you read the entire PDS if you decide to do business with warrant marketmakers




Agree entirely skyQuake, TLSIOI has a constant 300000 in both the bid and ask and a tight spread too.
A view of the matrix is also of interest, if you have a target for the underlying then the daily matrix will provide the matching warrant bid/ask for each price (read the last three letters carefully).

Warrants can be a big learning curve initially but a worthwhile exercise even if you never use them.

My


----------



## Muschu (28 April 2012)

Ok - seems I don't understand.  Thx for comments.  Hopefully illumination will follow...

Do these (TLSIOI/IOU) suit a SMSF in pension phase?


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

I'm with you rick or worse I think, I dont undersand any of it and am impressed by the knowledge expressed by tinhat and boggo, have either of you guys ever lost on the market ?


----------



## Boggo (28 April 2012)

Yes, lose all the time mr burns, over 60% of last years trades were losers but I still had over 23% profit for the FY.
Gotta be in it to win it and don't hold on to losers, simple concept really.


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

Boggo said:


> Yes, lose all the time mr burns, over 60% of last years trades were losers but I still had over 23% profit for the FY.
> Gotta be in it to win it and don't hold on to losers, simple concept really.




I've often wondered how you can get in and out so quickly, what/how do you do that ?, broker ? online ?


----------



## tinhat (28 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I'm with you rick or worse I think, I dont undersand any of it and am impressed by the knowledge expressed by tinhat and boggo, have either of you guys ever lost on the market ?




I'm not a trader. I'm mainly managing a SMSF that lost a lot of money during the GFC before I took over running it. This SMSF is paying a pension to my mother which she lives off. I've got my super in there too in accumulation and I also manage a growing personal portfolio outside of the super fund.

Although by the time I got my hands on the SMSF most of the 2009 recovery had already happened, I still had to sell shares that were still haemorrhaging badly. Actually, at first, based on external advice, I was fairly hands off and was hoping that the SMSF share portfolio would organically repair itself to a large degree.

At this stage having just organised transfer of the SMSF holdings to a new trustees, I had only just learnt what a HIN was, what a Chess statement was, and capital gains tax works, how franking credits work. The SMSF had only had one previous tax return and I didn't know where to find the cost bases for the shares currently in the portfolio.

Then I watched MQG (the largest holding in the portfolio) start to slide in May 2010. I was aware that the business outlook and balance sheet weren't good for MQG and I realised I had to do something proactive even though I didn't know what to do. Other examples of substantial shareholdings that were on the slide are PPT, AMP, MQG, SIP. I didn't start actively picking stocks until November 2010 (with the exception of RIO which I bought at about $63 earlier in 2010) and that was a bit late in the cycle for an inexperienced investor like myself to be entering positions. 

I've made plenty of mistakes in only eighteen months. Mainly because I've been using fundamental analysis and value investing without understanding market sentiment and market momentum. Where to start? 

OZL & PNA - Bought too late into the cycle, paid too much and held too long past the peak last year.

RCG - bought not long after the top early last year and never put a stop on it. Share price has been falling ever since. Complete disaster.

MCE - despite taking profits on the way up managed to still turn this into a loss.

IIN, WEB, RMD - bought but sold because their share prices were going nowhere only to subsequently see them rally once I got out (sometimes a long time after).

MML, HZN - happy to be holding both of these for the medium term (next couple of years) but didn't time entry and could have picked them up or even dollar averaged in over time at much lower prices.

EQN - automatic stop-loss got triggered not long before they got taken over. Lost out on the upside.

MGX - loss.

TSM - disaster.

TGA - caught a falling knife. Didn't pay attention to the price momentum when purchased. Out of the money.

IPL, PEM - out of the money.

I've sat on losses when I could have freed up money to jump on rising stocks that were on my watch list such as SUP, SLR, CCP, the list goes on.

Fortunately, I've done reasonably well at limiting positions sizes, so although my more speculative capital growth trades have been poorly managed, I've done a lot better at managing the income portfolio where most of the money is and used the 2011 slump to rebalance and lock in some great yields (CBA, ANZ, TLS, ASZ, GZL, GUD, IUL).

I'm one of those people who needs to experience things viscerally to learn well. So although I've been through some pain and anxiety it's helped me to identify my deficiencies and weaknesses and to distil what I have learnt and crystallise certain rules which, to my amazement, I still seem to break.


----------



## MrBurns (28 April 2012)

Very interesting tinhat, I had Fairfax, out of that in a hurry, bought the banks before they tanked, now out of them, CSS got no where got out, had MSB for ages, nothing doing then then when they rose a bit I got out, not long after they trippled in price.

I dont have any shares at present was tempted by TLS in the last month but didnt act now it's too late I think.

I'll just watch ans wait, for what I don't know.


----------



## Boggo (28 April 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I've often wondered how you can get in and out so quickly, what/how do you do that ?, broker ? online ?




Not so much a case of getting in or out quickly, more a case of having plan/method and applying it.
Go back to my post on March 24th for TLS, one example of entry and exit etc all in front of you before you enter.

In the current market you just have to be active, the old buy and sit back with visions of retirement will most likely result in a bottom drawer bigger than a swimming pool full of "bargain at this price" stocks with great dividend yields !

Marcus Padley summed it up on TV a few weeks ago when he said that this is a traders market, not an investors market.

(We are starting to get off topic here and I think I can predict the outcome if we don't get back to TLS  )


----------



## Boggo (1 May 2012)

Frank D said:


> and is now making its way towards the *Primary target of 3.58.*




Hovering around your target today Frank 

From an EW approach it is just on top of the min zone, typical zone around 3.70 is next target to aim for.
(click to expand)


----------



## Muschu (1 May 2012)

In this market, as a retiree, TLS has been "friendly".  Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but good at the moment.


----------



## MrBurns (1 May 2012)

Muschu said:


> In this market, as a retiree, TLS has been "friendly".  Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but good at the moment.




I was thinking of going in hard on TLS some weeks ago, but stalled and have watched it climb ever since.
Will wait now for other things to unfold, the market generally, the elsction which could be on at any moment, just some opportunity, there always is isnt there.


----------



## Muschu (1 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> .....Will wait now for other things to unfold, the market generally, the elsction which could be on at any moment, just some opportunity, there always is isnt there.




How will you recognise and identify the moment / opportunity ?  I am not being cynical as I hope you know.


----------



## MrBurns (2 May 2012)

Muschu said:


> How will you recognise and identify the moment / opportunity ?  I am not being cynical as I hope you know.




Rick, I usually cross check gut feel with what I see and hear, in the case of TLS I saw it but didnt act because I thought...."naaa I must have missed something"

Interest rate cut looked very likely, TLS dividend guaranteed going forward, TLS will have a bucket load of cash. 
It was a no brianer but I just didnt trust my own judement.
In the past I had a bundle of spec stocks which got no where and that put me off somewhat.

Nothing else in shares really excites me too much, I think the banks are at some risk, certainly the miners are, even Coles and defensive stocks wont stand up in a severe downturn and I think thats on the cards.


----------



## Muschu (2 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Rick, I usually cross check gut feel with what I see and hear, in the case of TLS I saw it but didnt act because I thought...."naaa I must have missed something"
> 
> Interest rate cut looked very likely, TLS dividend guaranteed going forward, TLS will have a bucket load of cash.
> It was a no brianer but I just didnt trust my own judement.
> ...




Thanks Mr B.  I appreciate your comments.


----------



## MrBurns (2 May 2012)

Muschu said:


> Thanks Mr B.  I appreciate your comments.




There's no expertise in my reasons for buying and I'm always very cautious, or pessimistic more likely.


----------



## Frank D (5 May 2012)

*TLS Primary and Weekly cycles*

Primary target for 2012 reached @ 3.58...

 and if you know my work using the lesser patterns in the Weekly cycles:- *break
 and extend patterns * breakout of the April high @ 3.33 extends towards the 
MAY high.

Therefore, the completion of the break and extend pattern along with the
 Primary target being reach...

And I believe that TLS has found its high for 2012, and will likely to struggle
 to move higher for the rest of the year unless it revisits it's 3-month lows over 
the next couple of Quarters.

I could be wrong, but the weekly 50% levels @ 3.51 should now be used to define how the short-term trends play out.


----------



## starman45 (6 May 2012)

Tls: beautiful climb. Now the stock is in the area of strong resistance 3.6. This is an area of ​​target. I think you have to wait for their first wins to go long, or wait for a retracement, but is more risky because it could turn into a good opportunity for sellers.
Good weekend to all!


----------



## Boggo (6 May 2012)

starman45 said:


> Tls: beautiful climb. Now the stock is in the area of strong resistance 3.6.




Typical Wave 5 is in the range 3.68 to 3.76. Both TS4's (ABC corrections) have been spot on.
It has played by the rules nicely so far, a nice correction would provide an opportunity to overlap another run up when it does run out of steam.

(click to expand)


----------



## starman45 (8 May 2012)

Boggo said:


> Typical Wave 5 is in the range 3.68 to 3.76. Both TS4's (ABC corrections) have been spot on.
> It has played by the rules nicely so far, a nice correction would provide an opportunity to overlap another run up when it does run out of steam.
> 
> (click to expand)




On the monthly chart, we see that it is strong resistance.


----------



## MrBurns (9 May 2012)

The market goes down TLS continues up, I guess it's a safe haven ?


----------



## McCoy Pauley (9 May 2012)

TLS' guaranteed dividend acts means an investment in TLS is almost like buying bonds.  Not surprising that spooked investors rush to TLS in troubled times.


----------



## MrBurns (9 May 2012)

McCoy Pauley said:


> TLS' guaranteed dividend acts means an investment in TLS is almost like buying bonds.  Not surprising that spooked investors rush to TLS in troubled times.




With the likelihood of rates falling further it may keep rising.


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> With the likelihood of rates falling further it may keep rising.




And it has 

up another 3% today.


----------



## HarryH (15 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I don't pay tax at present, get a nice refund though




LOL you only earn only about $16,000? (ie $6000 + low income offset) each year? I'm sure you would have made 50k buddy .


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2012)

HarryH said:


> LOL you only earn only about $16,000? (ie $6000 + low income offset). I'm sure you would have made 50k buddy .




I'm sure there's plenty of reasons why tax is minimised, I leave it to the accountants.


----------



## Julia (15 May 2012)

HarryH said:


> LOL you only earn only about $16,000? (ie $6000 + low income offset) each year? I'm sure you would have made 50k buddy .




Mr Burns might be in pension phase of his Super in which case no tax is paid.
Maybe consider various circumstances before you dismiss the accuracy of what someone says.


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2012)

Julia said:


> Mr Burns might be in pension phase of his Super in which case no tax is paid.
> Maybe consider various circumstances before you dismiss the accuracy of what someone says.




Not actually in pension mode Julia but I am running a business which has been making losses for a while as it builds.


----------



## Julia (15 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Not actually in pension mode Julia but I am running a business which has been making losses for a while as it builds.



 I wasn't actually suggesting you were.  Just making the point that there can be various circumstances in which no tax is payable.
Good luck with the business.


----------



## McLovin (15 May 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Not actually in pension mode Julia but I am running a business which has been making losses for a while as it builds.




How will the carbon tax affect your power plant?


----------



## MrBurns (15 May 2012)

Julia said:


> I wasn't actually suggesting you were.  Just making the point that there can be various circumstances in which no tax is payable.
> Good luck with the business.




Thanks Julia, actually I've got no real idea how he does things but I seem to get enough back to pay his ridiculous bill each year .......co incidentally



McLovin said:


> How will the carbon tax affect your power plant?




It's involved with the ACTU and they've given me a credit card to take care of that problem


----------



## Frank D (26 May 2012)

*TLS Monthly & Weekly Cycles*


After reaching my Primary target of 3.58, but following the *Break and Extend
*pattern from the April highs into the MAY highs....

TLS will be at a critcal level next week, as the Weekly lows @ 3.47 have 
the potential to form support (next 5-days) until the start of the following
 month (June).

That's when the next support patterns come in, which could push TLS back
 towards the highs.

However, anything below 3.47, and the trend bias is down into the 3-month lows 
after reaching the Yearly highs @ 3.58, which is something to be aware of 
as previously mentioned.


----------



## Boggo (9 June 2012)

A follow up to my previous posts here - 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=59&p=692578&viewfull=1#post692578
and and comment below from here -
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=63&p=701885&viewfull=1#post701885



Boggo said:


> *Typical Wave 5 is in the range 3.68 to 3.76.* Both TS4's (ABC corrections) have been spot on.
> It has played by the rules nicely so far, a nice correction would provide an opportunity to overlap another run up when it does run out of steam.




Sometimes they do play by the rules and that is when you need to be there (with an exit plan just in case). Where to from here is the next question, it will get my attention if (when) it breaks out again.


----------



## starman45 (17 June 2012)

starman45 said:


> Tls: beautiful climb. Now the stock is in the area of strong resistance 3.6. This is an area of ​​target. I think you have to wait for their first wins to go long, or wait for a retracement, but is more risky because it could turn into a good opportunity for sellers.
> Good weekend to all!
> 
> View attachment 47007




The retracement was a good opportunity to get long, but after more than a month, we are still in the same area. 3,6 is a strong resistance.


----------



## Bintang (22 June 2012)

starman45 said:


> The retracement was a good opportunity to get long, but after more than a month, we are still in the same area. 3,6 is a strong resistance.
> 
> View attachment 47457




I don't think $3.60 is 'resistance' longer term. TLS has a long way to go upwards yet.
Consider this: "Why would anyone buy shares in Singapore Telecoms at around $2.35, which gives an unfranked dividend yield of around 5.2% instead of buying shares in Telstra for around $3.60, which gives a fully franked dividend yield of 7.8%. Obviously someone does. But then again in the last 12 month period to date TLS is up 20%and SGT only up 5%."
I will confess to having a large position in TLS which I acquired in the price range $2.55 to $3.10 thanks to the financial geniuses at the Future Fund. Oh how I wish the Future Fund was still offloading TLS shares so I could continue to buy them ultra cheap. I have read lots of criticism about the TLS dividend not growing but some simple net present value calculations will show that even at $3.60 per share TLS is a good deal if it generates a constant dividend of 28 c/share. Even if I thought the dividend would drop to 21c per share I would still buy TLS at $3.60 in prefernence to many other alternatives, eg SGT or term deposits or an investment property etc.


----------



## MrBurns (11 July 2012)

As things get worse people are fleeing to the safety of TLS, by not buying in when I should have I have lost the equivalent of a very nice Mercedes, I just shouldn't look at the stock any more.


----------



## ROE (11 July 2012)

history is on your side if you buy stock that has reasonable cash flow that got beaten down so bad that people either hate or outright pissed off about it plus compounding of bad news this is where it trades at its lowest level.

I buy such stocks always


----------



## MrBurns (11 July 2012)

About a month ago I guess I saw the guaranteed return was excellent and interest rates were about to go down again, it looked too good to be true, I didn't trust my own judgment and paid the price, but it's all on the merry go round after all.


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

MrBurns said:


> About a month ago I guess I saw the guaranteed return was excellent and interest rates were about to go down again, it looked too good to be true, I didn't trust my own judgment and paid the price, but it's all on the merry go round after all.




MrBurns at today's closing price of 3.86 TLS is still a good buy. Its fully frank yield (7.25%) is still better than the major banks. And if you buy now you will get 14 cents per share dividend paid into your bank account around 22 September. Let's see  (0.14/3.86)*12/2.5= 17.l4%. Gee, that's like have money in the bank at 17.4% annualised interest for the next 2.5 months, except its better than that because bank interest will get gouged by the taxman


----------



## MrBurns (11 July 2012)

Bintang said:


> MrBurns at today's closing price of 3.86 TLS is still a good buy. Its fully frank yield (7.25%) is still better than the major banks. And if you buy now you will get 14 cents per share dividend paid into your bank account around 22 September. Let's see  (0.14/3.86)*12/2.5= 17.l4%. Gee, that's like have money in the bank at 17.4% annualised interest for the next 2.5 months, except its better than that because bank interest will get gouged by the taxman




Thanks Bintang, I'm feeling bullish all of a sudden.


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

Bintang said:


> MrBurns at today's closing price of 3.86 TLS is still a good buy. Its fully frank yield (7.25%) is still better than the major banks. And if you buy now you will get 14 cents per share dividend paid into your bank account around 22 September. Let's see  (0.14/3.86)*12/2.5= 17.l4%. Gee, that's like have money in the bank at 17.4% annualised interest for the next 2.5 months, except its better than that because bank interest will get gouged by the taxman




And when the future fund was selling down TLS at prices under $3.00 the above type of calculation was even more compelling.  I have to hand it to those guys at the Future Fund.  Pure genius of them to sell down the Future Fund's telstra shares. Did me a huge favour and also everyone else who bought when they were selling. Would be intersting to know how many of the Future Funds TLS shares went to overseas buyers. I think Australia got fleeced on this one. But for me personally a big thank you to the Future Fund.


----------



## MrBurns (11 July 2012)

At some stage when alll the good news dries up and the return guarantee is close to finishing people will start to get out, how long away is that ?


----------



## sammy84 (11 July 2012)

Bintang said:


> MrBurns at today's closing price of 3.86 TLS is still a good buy. Its fully frank yield (7.25%) is still better than the major banks. And if you buy now you will get 14 cents per share dividend paid into your bank account around 22 September. Let's see  (0.14/3.86)*12/2.5= 17.l4%. Gee, that's like have money in the bank at 17.4% annualised interest for the next 2.5 months, except its better than that because bank interest will get gouged by the taxman




You haven't factored any ex-div top in your calculation. Will drop at least 10c on ex-div date.


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

Sooner the better I hope because then I will buy some more.


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

sammy84 said:


> You haven't factored any ex-div top in your calculation. Will drop at least 10c on ex-div date.




You are right. I haven't and I don't need to because I will not be selling. You see after Sep12 I will get another 14cents per share paid into my bank account around 22Mar13. Let's see, (0.14/3.86)*12/6 = 7.25% which will be like having left my money in a bank account for another 6 months at an annualised interest rate of 7.25% except it will be better because that nasty taxman is going to take less of it from me.

And besides if I had been worried about the ex-div top (which is bleeding obvious) I would not have bought in December 2010 at $2.74 or in July 2011 at $3.04 or in December 2011 at $3.34.


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

MrBurns said:


> At some stage when alll the good news dries up and the return guarantee is close to finishing people will start to get out, how long away is that ?




And good luck to them finding somewhere else to put their money that gives them a better rate of return.
When they are ready to sell there will be eager buyers waiting - me for one!


----------



## Julia (11 July 2012)

Bintang said:


> And good luck to them finding somewhere else to put their money that gives them a better rate of return.
> When they are ready to sell there will be eager buyers waiting - me for one!



In your unbridled enthusiasm for your splendid rate of return, if the SP were to fall to half what it is now, will you still be so thrilled?

And, of course you wouldn't be ramping TLS, would you?


----------



## Muschu (11 July 2012)

MrBurns said:


> At some stage when alll the good news dries up and the return guarantee is close to finishing people will start to get out, how long away is that ?




Who knows Mr B.  There is no certainty.  People keep waiting to buy cheap . How long have you been waiting?
 I have been buying TLS since it was $2.84.  I don't think I have been rash.
I even bought y'day at $3.82.  
As a retiree, and in today's climate, l am OK with this.  
I am also 80% in cash.  Is that wise? No idea !
But I buy on momentum and uptrends.... Not when a stock appears cheap.

I am definitely not suggesting that you buy TLS.  Will it reach  $4?  Will it go back to $3?

My only observation is, that today, it looks OK.  And, with it's FF dividend, better than a TD.

As always I could be completely wrong.

Regards

Rick


----------



## Ves (11 July 2012)

Julia said:


> In your unbridled enthusiasm for your splendid rate of return, if the SP were to fall to half what it is now, will you still be so thrilled?
> 
> And, of course you wouldn't be ramping TLS, would you?



Would it fall to half because of bad news, or because a major shareholder decided to sell out again for no good reason?


----------



## Julia (11 July 2012)

Ves said:


> Would it fall to half because of bad news, or because a major shareholder decided to sell out again for no good reason?



Why would it matter?  The question relates to Bintang's situation and his concern or otherwise for capital preservation.
(PS  I doubt too many major shareholders would decide to sell their substantial holding 'for no good reason'.)


----------



## Ves (11 July 2012)

Julia said:


> Why would it matter?  The question relates to Bintang's situation and his concern or otherwise for capital preservation.



Capital preservation in the long term is linked to business performance; in the short term it is linked to market sentiment (which may or may not be riding on the back of business performance - something as simple as a Fund wanting to reduce or completely sell their holding can have massive implications that have nothing to do with long-term prospects).  

It certainly does matter.


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

MrBurns said:


> At some stage when alll the good news dries up and the return guarantee is close to finishing people will start to get out, how long away is that ?






Julia said:


> In your unbridled enthusiasm for your splendid rate of return, if the SP were to fall to half what it is now, will you still be so thrilled?
> 
> And, of course you wouldn't be ramping TLS, would you?




In terms of my overall investment portfolio I can withstand a fall of 50% in the TLS share price as unlikely as that is. I am sorry for offending you with my unbridled enthusiasm. You are free to ignore it.
And of course you wouldn't be talking down TLS, would you?


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

Julia said:


> Why would it matter?  The question relates to Bintang's situation and his concern or otherwise for capital preservation.
> (PS  I doubt too many major shareholders would decide to sell their substantial holding 'for no good reason'.)




Well, well, well. I think that is exactly what the Future Fund did. Maybe be there should be a Senate enquiry into why they did it!!


----------



## Julia (11 July 2012)

Bintang said:


> In terms of my overall investment portfolio I can withstand a fall of 50% in the TLS share price as unlikely as that is. I am sorry for offending you with my unbridled enthusiasm. You are free to ignore it.
> And of course you wouldn't be talking down TLS, would you?



I have no interest in talking TLS up or down.  Do not own it.  Never have.
You have not offended me.  I am simply curious about how people rate capital preservation.

So should I understand from your above comment that - if it were to happen - you would allow your capital investment to fall 50% without any intervention?

No need to answer if you are offended by the question.  I am, after all, just being curious.


----------



## Muschu (11 July 2012)

Just kidding but maybe the interchanges are becoming as defensive as TLS is, may be, may be not....


----------



## Bintang (11 July 2012)

Julia said:


> I have no interest in talking TLS up or down.  Do not own it.  Never have.
> You have not offended me.  I am simply curious about how people rate capital preservation.
> 
> So should I understand from your above comment that - if it were to happen - you would allow your capital investment to fall 50% without any intervention?
> ...




Fair question and I am not offended.  When I first became interested in Telstra ( towards end 2009) I was tantalised by the dividend yield but concerned about capital preservation having observed how far TLS had fallen in previous years. So I decided to study Telstra's annual reports, model its cashflows and make my own independent assessment of what I thought it would be worth paying for a Telstra share.
As the TLS share price continued to decline through 2010 I could see no fundamental reason for it other than general Telstra bashing and negative sentiment brought about in part by the Future Fund selling. Once TLS dropped below $3.00 I began to buy - why, because at this level I decided the downside risk to capital preservation was very small and yet the dividend yield had become absolutely compelling.
So having bought in at low values I am minimally concerned about a share price drop from current levels. If it dropped 50% I would not sell because I don't think Telstra's earnings would fall by 50%. Also if TLS was down 50% it would mean that the general stock market would probably be down 70% so I would rather have my money in TLS anyway. The dividend yield would still be good and such a precipitous drop would have to be temporary.   Therefore if it did drop by that much I would be a heavy buyer.
Believe me I am not ramping TLS. Each time I get TLS dividends I immediately reinvest them and I therefore like the TLS price to be as low-priced as possible.


----------



## sammy84 (12 July 2012)

Bintang said:


> You are right. I haven't and I don't need to because I will not be selling. You see after Sep12 I will get another 14cents per share paid into my bank account around 22Mar13. Let's see, (0.14/3.86)*12/6 = 7.25% which will be like having left my money in a bank account for another 6 months at an annualised interest rate of 7.25% except it will be better because that nasty taxman is going to take less of it from me.




Ha, you quoted a 17% annual return based on buying TLS today, but in order to achieve this return we have to ignore the ex-div drop because you won't be selling and are assuming that price will return to today's levels. Amateur hour....


----------



## Bintang (12 July 2012)

sammy84 said:


> Ha, you quoted a 17% annual return based on buying TLS today, but in order to achieve this return we have to ignore the ex-div drop because you won't be selling and are assuming that price will return to today's levels. Amateur hour....




I take a long term view but perhaps your view is shorter. You think after the ex-div drop the price will not recover but I disagree. Sure there is risk attached to my assumption but it is tempered by a higher potential return.  Each to his own.


----------



## MrBurns (12 July 2012)

I think, rightly or wrongly, that the higher the price goes the closer it gets to a tipping point where it tanks, this will become clearer the closer we get to the end of the dividend guarantee.

So it becomes pass the parcel, who will be first to cash in and run ?


----------



## Julia (12 July 2012)

Muschu said:


> Just kidding but maybe the interchanges are becoming as defensive as TLS is, may be, may be not....



On the contrary, Rick.   Bintang has now provided his/her entirely rational explanation for what came across as irrational enthusiasm for the stock.

Thanks for that, Bintang.  You're obviously the archetypal value investor.  I wish you luck.
The level of focus any of us place on capital preservation changes, I think, with our age and outside earning capacity.



Bintang said:


> Fair question and I am not offended.  When I first became interested in Telstra ( towards end 2009) I was tantalised by the dividend yield but concerned about capital preservation having observed how far TLS had fallen in previous years. So I decided to study Telstra's annual reports, model its cashflows and make my own independent assessment of what I thought it would be worth paying for a Telstra share.
> As the TLS share price continued to decline through 2010 I could see no fundamental reason for it other than general Telstra bashing and negative sentiment brought about in part by the Future Fund selling. Once TLS dropped below $3.00 I began to buy - why, because at this level I decided the downside risk to capital preservation was very small and yet the dividend yield had become absolutely compelling.
> So having bought in at low values I am minimally concerned about a share price drop from current levels. If it dropped 50% I would not sell because I don't think Telstra's earnings would fall by 50%. Also if TLS was down 50% it would mean that the general stock market would probably be down 70% so I would rather have my money in TLS anyway. The dividend yield would still be good and such a precipitous drop would have to be temporary.   Therefore if it did drop by that much I would be a heavy buyer.
> Believe me I am not ramping TLS. Each time I get TLS dividends I immediately reinvest them and I therefore like the TLS price to be as low-priced as possible.


----------



## Bintang (12 July 2012)

MrBurns said:


> I think, rightly or wrongly, that the higher the price goes the closer it gets to a tipping point where it tanks, this will become clearer the closer we get to the end of the dividend guarantee.
> 
> So it becomes pass the parcel, who will be first to cash in and run ?




Ah now I see .... Thanks MrBurns ...... so it is a bit like investment real estate except that:
 - the yield on IPs is worse than bank interest and there is no franking
 - buying and selling the IP incurs real estate agents fees and stamp duty
 - the IP investment is not very liquid

Besides,  the end of the dividend guarantee will be another great TLS buying opportunity because the negative sentiment will cause over-shoot.


----------



## Muschu (12 July 2012)

Julia said:


> On the contrary, Rick.   Bintang has now provided his/her entirely rational explanation for what came across as irrational enthusiasm for the stock.......




Don't think I mentioned Bintang........


----------



## notting (27 July 2012)

There all putting the boots into Facebook due to everything going mobile.  
Not many seem to be putting the boots into Rudds NBN wastage.  Still popular


----------



## MrBurns (31 July 2012)

Touched $4 yesterday, is the run over ?


----------



## tinhat (31 July 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Touched $4 yesterday, is the run over ?




At $4 it is still yielding 7% before franking credits.


----------



## MrBurns (31 July 2012)

tinhat said:


> At $4 it is still yielding 7% before franking credits.




For how long ?

This time bext year ?


----------



## tinhat (1 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> For how long ?
> 
> This time bext year ?




Surely we have discussed this already at length? Dividend is expected to remain at 28c until 2014. Capital management of excess cash due to the NBN compensation will be done once there are sufficient franking credits for dividend increase, special dividends, etc.  which will be 2014 and beyond.


----------



## MrBurns (1 August 2012)

tinhat said:


> Surely we have discussed this already at length? Dividend is expected to remain at 28c until 2014. Capital management of excess cash due to the NBN compensation will be done once there are sufficient franking credits for dividend increase, special dividends, etc.  which will be 2014 and beyond.




If it's so good why was the price suppressed for so long ?


----------



## sval62 (1 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> If it's so good why was the price suppressed for so long ?




Your just cranky because you did not get in at the right price.
Stick with term deposits .


----------



## MrBurns (1 August 2012)

sval62 said:


> Your just cranky because you did not get in at the right price.
> Stick with term deposits .




If you cant answer the question don't waste peoples time with BS  - thanks


----------



## Bintang (1 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> If it's so good why was the price suppressed for so long ?




I think it has been a combination of the following:
1) General negative sentiment due to Telstra T2 purchasers having got badly burnt (they bought at $7.40)
2) The sell-off by the Future Fund
3) A lot of small investors not understanding the benefits of franking credits

For the last point read the following article:
"Dividends and franking credits are underestimated by investors"
by James Dunn,  The Australian, July 09, 2011 12:00A

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/dividends-and-franking-credits-are-underestimated-by-investors/story-fn92b2g9-1226091024260

For the kind of reasons explained in this article I believe TLS share price has a long way to run, especially as bank interest rates have fallen further since the article was written.

For me personally I will keep buying TLS up to a price of $4.95, at which point I will consider it fully valued.
This is based on my judgement that TLS can at least maintain its 28 cents per share dividend long term and that interest rates will remain depressed long term, i.e. my TLS valuation does not depend on an assumption of dividend growth.
I also consider a more conservative valuation based on the assumption of lower dividend yields after 2014 but even then I come to a valuation of around $4.60 (i.e. that being the maximum price that I would be prepared to pay for a TLS share today)
If a dividend growth assumption is factored into the analysis it will give a higher valuation than $4.95.

But you have to make your own judgement according to your own circumstances.


----------



## MrBurns (1 August 2012)

Bintang said:


> But you have to make your own judgement according to your own circumstances.




Thank you Bintang, much appareciated, the only other thing is if it's scrapped, little chance of that now , but what if ???


----------



## MrBurns (1 August 2012)

I've just read through a lot of but certainly not all the posts in here and I can say that negativity is easy there's plenty of that but the positive posts by credible posters are the ones to watch.

The one that stands out is when someone said I shouldn't bother with shares, they're probably right, not without a very good adviser at least.


----------



## Bintang (1 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Thank you Bintang, much appareciated, the only other thing is if it's scrapped, little chance of that now , but what if ???




Well in that case I am screwed along with all the other Telstra shareholders but I will take my chances nonetheless.

There is risk with every investment decision and judging that risk should be part of making the decision. If I seriously thought Telstra was completely risk free my valuation would be higher than $4.95 (maybe even as high as $7.00)  because I would use a lower discount rate. But the reality is TLS is not risk free.  So if TLS does reach $4.95 and the outlook for dividends remains at 28 cents/share I would prefer to keep spare cash in a term deposit rather than buy more TLS shares at that price. But these are just my personal judgements and I could be wrong.


----------



## MrBurns (1 August 2012)

Bintang said:


> Well in that case I am screwed along with all the other Telstra shareholders but I will take my chances nonetheless.




Looks like chances are very much in favour of it continuing - 



> Gillard adamant on NBN despite Coalition policy shift From: AAP July 02, 2012 11:15AM
> 
> PRIME Minister Julia Gillard insists only Labor will build the national broadband network despite the coalition's backflip on cancelling the project.
> After promising to terminate the NBN if it comes to power, Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull has been quoted by Fairfax as saying the coalition won't cancel an estimated $1.8 billion worth of contracts already signed by NBN Co.
> ...




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/aus...ion-policy-shift/story-e6frgakx-1226414351617


----------



## MrBurns (7 August 2012)

Can someone tell me when the best time to buy TLS is, what I mean doesn't it dip when the dividend is paid ???
I dont know about these things but if someone could enlighten me, I think I may dip a large toe in the water.


----------



## pixel (7 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Can someone tell me when the best time to buy TLS is, what I mean doesn't it dip when the dividend is paid ???
> I dont know about these things but if someone could enlighten me, I think I may dip a large toe in the water.




TLS has run very hard, on the back of uncertainty that caused many investors to look for perceived "value" and yield. At close to 14-times earnings, I'd call TLS overbought and not much use buying here for 7% yield; I had to hold far too long for  the franking credits. The extra 3% could easily be wiped out in a  normal-sized correction.





As regards "buy when?" for dividend, there are various theories about dividend stripping, buying-holding, etc. None of them are effective *every time*; to me, the chart tells the "right time" regardless of dividends. 
But you're guessing correctly (IMHO) when you expect a drop after the ex-div date. The unknown elements are: by how much? and will the sp recover afterwards or keep dropping? What I wrote above makes me doubt it can hold on to current levels.


----------



## MrBurns (7 August 2012)

Thanks pixel, much appreciated


----------



## Bintang (7 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Can someone tell me when the best time to buy TLS is, what I mean doesn't it dip when the dividend is paid ???
> I dont know about these things but if someone could enlighten me, I think I may dip a large toe in the water.




I think TLS has peaked for the current cycle. It might drop back into the range 3.80 to 3.90, which could be another buying opportunity IMHO.  But the question is for how long?


----------



## MrBurns (8 August 2012)

Dunno how you guys do it but it's now below $4.00, my best move in shares is just to observe


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2012)

Buy now Burnsie. The price is off about 5% in two days. You know if you don't now, you never will. 

Hang on for a rise as it appraches the ex-div date and sell before ex-div for quick profit. See disclaimer below.

DISCLAIMER: I could be wrong. 

Despite recent falls, the share price has risen strongly over recent months and I suspect this has been driven to some extent by investors chasing yield as interest rates have been falling. Headline profit while now inching in the right direction is only projected by the company to continue to grow slowly. If investor emphesis changes from yield to growth in the near term, the general trend in my view is that the share price would likely be to fall further in the near term.

Again when trying to predict these sorts of things, the above disclaimer applies.


----------



## MrBurns (9 August 2012)

drsmith said:


> Buy now Burnsie. The price is off about 5% in two days. You know if you don't now, you never will.
> 
> Hang on for a rise as it appraches the ex-div date and sell before ex-div for quick profit. See disclaimer below.
> 
> ...




Wow down to $3.89 I dont think I'd risk enough to make any worthwhile profit.

If it goes back up 20c invest $100,000, you only make $5,000 invest $500,000 = $25,000 that's worthwhile but the risk is greater too, or you could lose the same.


----------



## Trembling Hand (9 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> If it goes back up 20c invest $100,000, you only make $5,000 invest $500,000 = $25,000 that's worthwhile but the risk is greater too, or you could lose the same.




Burnsie there seems to be two types of profitable traders. Those that are very lucking putting a lot on one or two stocks and getting on an incredible ride and the other type are the ones who know how to skew the numbers in their favour over 100s of trades. Not just the next one.

But only 1 of the above types ever become* long-term profitable* traders.

Seems very unwise to not plan or control risk with so much cash, only asking to be at the mercy of emotions.


----------



## MrBurns (9 August 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Burnsie there seems to be two types of profitable traders. Those that are very lucking putting a lot on one or two stocks and getting on an incredible ride and the other type are the ones who know how to skew the numbers in their favour over 100s of trades. Not just the next one.
> 
> But only 1 of the above types ever become* long-term profitable* traders.
> 
> Seems very unwise to not plan or control risk with so much cash, only asking to be at the mercy of emotions.




You're right, gut feel comes into it far too often , I've lost a bit over the past 5 years following "tips" from brokers on Business Tonight (or The Business as its now called) Charlie Aitkin comes to mind

I'll never "research" to the point where I'll do multiple trades as you describe, if anything I should just take an index fund when the market stabilises.


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Wow down to $3.89 I dont think I'd risk enough to make any worthwhile profit.
> 
> If it goes back up 20c invest $100,000, you only make $5,000 invest $500,000 = $25,000 that's worthwhile but the risk is greater too, or you could lose the same.



I'd tend to agree as per the second part of my post above.



MrBurns said:


> You're right, gut feel comes into it far too often , *I've lost a bit over the past 5 years following "tips" from brokers on Business Tonight (or The Business as its now called) Charlie Aitkin comes to mind*



If however it's someone else's money, ................................


----------



## MrBurns (9 August 2012)

drsmith said:


> If however it's someone else's money, ................................




Not with you there, no doubt some other quirk of trading that went straight over my head


----------



## drsmith (9 August 2012)

I was being a little cryptic (and humorous I hope), but I'm simply saying that it's easier to risk someone else's money (or provide advice to that effect) than it is to risk one's own. 

With the latter, you bare the full responsibility of the outcome.


----------



## MrBurns (9 August 2012)

drsmith said:


> I was being a little cryptic (and humorous I hope), but I'm simply saying that it's easier to risk someone else's money (or provide advice to that effect) than it is to risk one's own.
> 
> With the latter, you bare the full responsibility of the outcome.




Ahh yes thats what I thought you might have meant and it's true, thanks


----------



## herzy (10 August 2012)

Burns from what I can see you have been watching TLS for quite awhile and seem to know the arguments for and against medium and long term price direction, dividends (including franking), etc - you'll really need to make your own decision as to when a good time to buy in will be. Opportunities always come. 

I tend to agree with TH though, and worry that the trend of your posts has been when to 'buy large' into TLS. I think that is the only way you are truly at risk investing in TLS. Invest a small portion of your funds, and you can enjoy the dividend and possible capital growth. Invest it all in TLS, and you risk a lot of your capital for what suddenly seems like a fairly paltry 7% dividend (as you said above, if 5% ain't enough...).

There are many other options with high dividend yield, much lower p/e and comparable future earnings growth potential. I would advise looking into a few others as well. This is of course based on investing, and not trading - which in my opinion is easier to master, and easier to apply basic principles of logic in. 

Sorry if any of this post is presumptuous and/or inappropriate.


----------



## MrBurns (10 August 2012)

herzy said:


> Sorry if any of this post is presumptuous and/or inappropriate.




Not at all, thanks for your input


----------



## MrBurns (10 August 2012)

This is more interesting than any action movie



> TLS  *   3.760    -0.120


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> This is more interesting than any action movie




I'm not really into action movies but it is interesting.  I'm in the pension phase of a SMSF with an average TLS buy price well under today's close.  

I'd be interested in the views of members into charting.  Around $3.50 TLS might again be a good buy?

The market is clearly precarious.  Have you any buy price in mind Mr B?


----------



## MrBurns (10 August 2012)

Muschu said:


> Have you any buy price in mind Mr B?




No buy price rick, I'm just trying to work out why this stock vasilates so much, seems when times look bad it rises and the opposite when things look OK again.
Where it ends up is anyones guess, but I'm a bit concerned the Libs might change the NBN somehow and what effect that might have.
All things considered I'll probably just sit on the fence, primarily because I dont know any better.


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> No buy price rick, I'm just trying to work out why this stock vasilates so much, seems when times look bad it rises and the opposite when things look OK again.
> Where it ends up is anyones guess, but I'm a bit concerned the Libs might change the NBN somehow and what effect that might have.
> All things considered I'll probably just sit on the fence, primarily because I dont know any better.




Fair enough response .... Sounds like a good move for now.


----------



## Peterchap (10 August 2012)

TLS closed today at $3.76, it goes Ex Dividend on 20th Aug. paying a $0.14 dividend - $0.20 if you include the franking credit - paid on the 21st Sept.

If you buy TLS tomorrow at $3.76 , deduct the $0.20 grossed up dividend you're going to receive on 21st Sept. you're net cost is $3.56.

They project the next year or so dividends to stay at $0.28 - grossed up to $0.40.

$0.40/$3.56 = 11.235% yield - using the franking credits.

Sure, you've got to wait a while to claim your franking credits but I think that's still a pretty good return, especially in today's low interest climate.

I'm in a SMSF pension mode so it's tax free and I can claim the franking credits.

I've accumulated TLS over many years, from $1.95 T1 (remember?), to their high, around $9.00 down to the low, around $2.65 not so long ago.

I think if plan on keeping them long term and they maintain their dividend, 11% is a pretty good ROI.

Regards from Peter.


----------



## Muschu (10 August 2012)

Peterchap said:


> TLS closed today at $3.76, it goes Ex Dividend on 20th Aug. paying a $0.14 dividend - $0.20 if you include the franking credit - paid on the 21st Sept.
> 
> If you buy TLS tomorrow at $3.76 , deduct the $0.20 grossed up dividend you're going to receive on 21st Sept. you're net cost is $3.56.
> 
> ...




Well said Peter.  I won't be buying Monday however.  Lots of sellers right now.  I probably have enough stock right now but close to $3.50 could be interested again.  Still, the volatility is extreme and each day brings its own news.  No guarantees anywhere. Hindsight is marvellous .....
Regards
Rick


----------



## MrBurns (13 August 2012)

TLS still going down and I've no idea why.

At least I didnt buy in a week ago.


----------



## notting (13 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> TLS still going down and I've no idea why.
> 
> At least I didnt buy in a week ago.




Pretend blow costs of NBN co and longer time to completion.  Labour was lying about the costs from the beginning pretending it was going to be affordable as well as faster, selling it cheap to initial customers to make it all look so good.
Now they say "oh look it's costing more."
Rudd and Conroy lying monkeys.
Libs getting better case for changing the stratergy and Telstra's bonus. 
Not sure how solid the contracts are myself.


----------



## McLovin (13 August 2012)

Looks to me like a few grey-nomads are disappointed that they won't be getting their share-buyback to free up cash to upgrade to the latest Jayco and so are selling their shares. I've only had a quick look at the report but it didn't seem that bad aside from the lack of "capital management intiatives".


----------



## notting (14 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> TLS still going down and I've no idea why.
> 
> At least I didnt buy in a week ago.




*Phone calls obsolete soon: Google boss*
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/phone-calls-obsolete-soon-google-boss-20120814-246e1.html


----------



## MrBurns (20 August 2012)

TLS big dive today, I've given up this guessing game.


----------



## McLovin (20 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> TLS big dive today, I've given up this guessing game.




It's ex a 14c dividend today.


----------



## Boggo (20 August 2012)

MrBurns said:


> TLS big dive today, I've given up this guessing game.




Its within a couple of cents of where it should be MrBurns.

14 cent dividend fully franked = 14 + (14x30%= 4.2) = 18.2 cents.

Each TLS share is worth 18.2 cents less than what they were worth on Friday


----------



## MrBurns (20 August 2012)

McLovin said:


> It's ex a 14c dividend today.






Boggo said:


> Its within a couple of cents of where it should be MrBurns.
> 
> 14 cent dividend fully franked = 14 + (14x30%= 4.2) = 18.2 cents.
> 
> Each TLS share is worth 18.2 cents less than what they were worth on Friday




Thanks guys, I should take a course.


----------



## Ves (20 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> Its within a couple of cents of where it should be MrBurns.
> 
> 14 cent dividend fully franked = 14 + (14x30%= 4.2) = 18.2 cents.
> 
> Each TLS share is worth 18.2 cents less than what they were worth on Friday



I think it's  14  /  0.7  = 20 cents. Which is exactly what it fell today.  Cheers.


----------



## Boggo (20 August 2012)

Ves said:


> I think it's  14  /  0.7  = 20 cents. Which is exactly what it fell today.  Cheers.




Why 0.7, as a famous politician once said "please explain"

Is that the accounting method ?


----------



## Ves (20 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> Why 0.7, as a famous politician once said "please explain"
> 
> Is that the accounting method ?



Companies pay 30% of tax as you know.   So  1 - 0.3  = 0.7.   To get back to the gross figure you divide by 0.7.

Hope this helps?


----------



## nulla nulla (20 August 2012)

The 14/07 represents the formula for calculating the div plus franking. The div is fully franked at 30% paying $0.14. Divide $0.14 by .70 (70%) = .02 and multiply by 10 (100%) = $0.20c.


----------



## Boggo (20 August 2012)

Ves said:


> Companies pay 30% of tax *as you know*.   So  1 - 0.3  = 0.7.   To get back to the gross figure you divide by 0.7.
> 
> Hope this helps?




Yes, I've always just taken 30% of the actual div and added it 

Just saw the end of the Ch 7 news where they were commenting on individual stocks, their comment on TLS was "and Telstra had a day they would like to forget".

Kochie will probably tell us that it is a bargain at these prices tomorrow


----------



## nulla nulla (20 August 2012)

Boggo said:


> Yes, I've always just taken 30% of the actual div and added it
> 
> Just saw the end of the Ch 7 news where they were commenting on individual stocks, their comment on TLS was "and Telstra had a day they would like to forget".
> 
> Kochie will probably tell us that it is a bargain at these prices tomorrow




I'm sick of looking at his bald patch when he tries to simulate talking to the characters from comsec of a morning. He should stay at the desk and cross to the indicators rather than show them to us in a reduced format with him standing next to them looking like a boof head.


----------



## Ves (20 August 2012)

nulla nulla said:


> I'm sick of looking at his bald patch when he tries to simulate talking to the characters from comsec of a morning. He should stay at the desk and cross to the indicators rather than show them to us in a reduced format with him standing next to them looking like a boof head.



Couldn't be any worse than listening to guys like John Noonan from Thomson Reuters every morning on SKY Business.


----------



## McLovin (21 August 2012)

Ves said:


> Couldn't be any worse than listening to guys like John Noonan from Thomson Reuters every morning on SKY Business.




There was a bloke on Sky Business a few months ago who kept confusing return on equity. This went of for a few days. He was basically using dividend yield to explain why the banks weren't as profitable because "their return on equity is only about 7%".


----------



## Ves (21 August 2012)

McLovin said:


> There was a bloke on Sky Business a few months ago who kept confusing return on equity. This went of for a few days. He was basically using dividend yield to explain why the banks weren't as profitable because "their return on equity is only about 7%".



Fantastic way of gauging sentiment though for traders... the "expert" guests love saying one thing then saying the opposite three weeks later  (as if no one would remember).  Maybe it's just me that notices.


----------



## McLovin (21 August 2012)

Ves said:


> Fantastic way of gauging sentiment though for traders... the "expert" guests love saying one thing then saying the opposite three weeks later  (as if no one would remember).  Maybe it's just me that notices.




I've noticed it. The short-termism on Sky Business is without equal. It will go from the "end of days" on Monday to raging bull market by Friday. It is entertainment though, afterall.


----------



## prawn_86 (21 August 2012)

McLovin said:


> I've noticed it. The short-termism on Sky Business is without equal. It will go from the "end of days" on Monday to raging bull market by Friday. It is entertainment though, afterall.




From their perspective though they have to talk about somehting. Same as the mainstream newspapers. You cant just say "it's quiet today and no data so lets come back tomorrow"


----------



## Julia (21 August 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> From their perspective though they have to talk about somehting. Same as the mainstream newspapers. You cant just say "it's quiet today and no data so lets come back tomorrow"




The same silliness applies prior to every time the Reserve Bank is about to meet to pronounce on interest rates.
For days before, we have every insignificant economist in Australia hitting the airwaves with their opinions about what the decision will be and why.  At least it's funny when when 95% of them get it wrong.


----------



## prawn_86 (24 October 2012)

Telstra set to buy Adam Internet which is an SA mainstay in the IT area with great internet, service and data centres. Telstra planning to operate it as stand-alone but im sure some Adam customers wont be happy.

Deal needs ACCC approval


----------



## MrBurns (25 October 2012)

Well I just bought in, I think the price will waver up and down but keep crawling in an upward direction.
Telstra are almost a monopoly really and seems to be well run.


----------



## Boggo (25 October 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Well I just bought in, I think the price will waver up and down but keep crawling in an upward direction.
> Telstra are almost a monopoly really and seems to be well run.




My way of trading TLS (and similiar stocks) is via instalment warrants, usually after it goes ex and then either hold and collect the next dividend or ride the run up to just before the next dividend, sell and then re-enter after it goes ex.

The advantage with the warrants on TLS is that you get just over 2x div for same dollar cost as one underlying share, same calcs apply to value increase minus decay.
I am currently long on TLSIOI as of 21st Aug. Just another way of extracting some $$ from a slow but steadily moving stock.
http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?section=pricehist&sy=tpl&code=TLSIOI#tabs


----------



## starman45 (29 October 2012)

Finally, after the breakout of the resistance 3.6, the stock has recovered zone 4.
If he can keep this area, the next targets are about 4.35 and about 4.86.


----------



## MrBurns (29 October 2012)

starman45 said:


> Finally, after the breakout of the resistance 3.6, the stock has recovered zone 4.
> If he can keep this area, the next targets are about 4.35 and about 4.86.
> 
> View attachment 49490




Suspect you might be right, pessimism seems to have died away but we'll soon see.

Also interest rates might fall again so that would keep it moving up.


----------



## MrBurns (12 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Suspect you might be right, pessimism seems to have died away but we'll soon see.
> 
> Also interest rates might fall again so that would keep it moving up.




Well that was short lived, pessimisim is back.

But will TLS hold as it's a defensive stock or will it fall like the others ?

We'll see.


----------



## Muschu (12 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Well that was short lived, pessimisim is back.
> 
> But will TLS hold as it's a defensive stock or will it fall like the others ?
> 
> We'll see.




Still trending up at this time Mr B - even if slowly.  

Rick


----------



## MrBurns (12 November 2012)

Muschu said:


> Still trending up at this time Mr B - even if slowly.
> 
> Rick




Dont care if it's slow as long as it's up.
Seems to be a little immune to the general market, things look good it eases things look bad it goes up.
No huge fluctuations just generally up.


----------



## MrBurns (15 November 2012)

How long can TLS continue to rise in a falling market ?


----------



## McLovin (15 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> How long can TLS continue to rise in a falling market ?




It's got a grossed up yield of almost 10%. And they've been talking up the prospect of rising dividends in the years ahead. Over $5 wouldn't surprise me.


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## MrBurns (15 November 2012)

McLovin said:


> It's got a grossed up yield of almost 10%. And they've been talking up the prospect of rising dividends in the years ahead. Over $5 wouldn't surprise me.




Might have to get some more.

I see Google have launched their offering already, if that comes to AU it would bugger the NBN surely...



> Google Fiber is live in Kansas City, real-world speeds at 700 Mbps
> 
> After months of fanfare and anticipation, gigabit home Internet service Google Fiber finally went live on Tuesday in Kansas City. The search giant is offering 1 Gbps speeds for just $70 per month””significantly faster and cheaper than what any traditional American ISPs are offering.
> 
> ...




http://arstechnica.com/business/201...in-kansas-city-real-world-speeds-at-700-mbps/


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## McLovin (15 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Might have to get some more.
> 
> I see Google have launched their offering already, if that comes to AU it would bugger the NBN surely...
> 
> ...




There is a better chance of you and me sitting down to some Kansas City style BBQ in Kansas City (I know a fantastic place there ) than there is of Google rolling out cable in Australia. We've had one copper network and we will have one fibre network.


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## MrBurns (15 November 2012)

McLovin said:


> There is a better chance of you and me sitting down to some Kansas City style BBQ in Kansas City (I know a fantastic place there ) than there is of Google rolling out cable in Australia. We've had one copper network and we will have one fibre network.




Hope you're right......thanks for your input, it's a bit quiet in here.


----------



## McLovin (15 November 2012)

MrBurns said:


> Hope you're right......thanks for your input, it's a bit quiet in here.




Google aren't dumb enough to try and compete in a geographically large, population small country against what will be an entrenched government monopoly.

Don't worry.


----------



## JTLP (15 November 2012)

McLovin said:


> Google aren't dumb enough to try and compete in a geographically large, population small country against what will be an entrenched government monopoly.
> 
> Don't worry.




Too true.

When I was in America I did see that Google offered free internet on their basic ADSL - and you could pay for faster services. That's what I call 'connecting people'...


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## MrBurns (6 February 2013)

TLS is going down on high volumes, any ideas why ? 
Is it because of the interim dividend about to be paid ?


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## Trembling Hand (6 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> TLS is going down on high volumes, any ideas why ?
> Is it because of the interim dividend about to be paid ?




Gee Burnsie I'd hardly call it slash the wrist territory.


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## MrBurns (6 February 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee Burnsie I'd hardly call it slash the wrist territory.



 Yeah I'm not exactly an expert at his, just so used to seeing only rises lately


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## Trembling Hand (6 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Yeah I'm not exactly an expert at his, just so used to seeing only rises lately




Well just a quick look at the chart and you can see pullbacks in the range of 25 - 30 cents have been common yet its still managed to move pretty much straight up in a nice trend. I'd start worrying if it makes a lower High then a lower low.


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## MrBurns (6 February 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Well just a quick look at the chart and you can see pullbacks in the range of 25 - 30 cents have been common yet its still managed to move pretty much straight up in a nice trend. I'd start worrying if it makes a lower High then a lower low.




Thanks I'm sure I'll see a post in here bout it before I pick it up


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## skc (6 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> TLS is going down on high volumes, any ideas why ?
> Is it because of the interim dividend about to be paid ?




TLS has run full steam ahead since a disappointing Aug 12 report. 

If I have to bet I'd say tomorrow's report will be disappointing as well.

But I don't expect the pull back to be substantial. 5-8% over 2-3 months probably all there is to it.


----------



## herzy (7 February 2013)

skc said:


> TLS has run full steam ahead since a disappointing Aug 12 report.
> 
> If I have to bet I'd say tomorrow's report will be disappointing as well.
> 
> But I don't expect the pull back to be substantial. 5-8% over 2-3 months probably all there is to it.




Still on 6% yield before franking - much better than ever-dropping term deposits


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## sinner (7 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Hope you're right......thanks for your input, it's a bit quiet in here.




Google has a significant dark fiber investment in the US and has been accumulating it for years now. This is a long term thing for them, they aren't going to just up and start competing on the wire with NBN, if anything they might be a whitebox customer.


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## robusta (8 February 2013)

Watch the earnings, a dividend payout ratio above 100% can not be sustained forever. Talk of expansion into Asia is also a little scary they do not have a good record of allocating capital for growth. Maybe present management is better?


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## McLovin (8 February 2013)

robusta said:


> Watch the earnings, a dividend payout ratio above 100% can not be sustained forever. Talk of expansion into Asia is also a little scary they do not have a good record of allocating capital for growth. Maybe present management is better?




Cashflow is more important. Their FCF easily pays the dividend.


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## Bintang (10 February 2013)

*"Don't Ever Buy Telstra Shares..." I wonder how many punters took this advice !*
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20100212/why-you-shouought ldnt-buy-telstra-shares-ever.html
On 12 Feb 2010 when this 'financial insight' was published TLS had a daily high of 3.21 and closed at 3.12.
Let's see now. If you had chosen to recklessly ignore the sage advice of Kris Sayce and bought TLS on 12 Feb 2010 for say $3.16 (only 10 days before the ex-dividend date ) you would have received $0.84 dividends from Mar 2010 until Sep 2012 and then if you happened to have sold last Friday (8 Feb 2013) at 4.62 your total return over the  3 year period would have been a measly 20% per annum. 
Kris Sayce said he could have done better than that by buying *" ... an over-priced property with a 100% mortgage and negative gearing". WOW!!!!* 
Actually I have to thank Kris Sayce for bringing TLS to my attention back then. When I read his article on 12 Feb 2010 it was so totally lacking in any  logic that I decided to do my own detailed and independent evaluation of TLS and subsequently began buying in late 2010 at prices below $3.00 (And by the way I did not sell any of them last Friday)


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## prawn_86 (18 February 2013)

Ex-div today and down about 2.5%, which is probably less of a fall than many were expecting, especially after such a big run up also


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## MrBurns (18 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Ex-div today and down about 2.5%, which is probably less of a fall than many were expecting, especially after such a big run up also




Is there any advantage buying in now ?

Seems to me you get the capital gain when it bounces back but you lose the dividend.

Dividend is tax paid , capital gain isn't..........


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## skyQuake (18 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> when it bounces back




is that guaranteed?


----------



## MrBurns (18 February 2013)

224M traded so far


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## burglar (18 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> ... but you lose the dividend. ...




Where did you lose it?


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## MrBurns (18 February 2013)

burglar said:


> Where did you lose it?




Why else would the stock reduce by approx value of the dividend ?
I'm probably not reading this right, enlighten me.


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## Bintang (18 February 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Is there any advantage buying in now ?
> 
> Seems to me you get the capital gain when it bounces back but you lose the dividend.
> 
> Dividend is tax paid , capital gain isn't..........




My target for TLS has been $4.95 for a long time so for me personally TLS is getting close to full valuation based on its current full year dividend of 28cents.  I believe the dividend can be maintained at 28 cents for some time yet but dividend growth still looks elusive.
Now that the hordes in general are chasing dividend yield TLS might push higher to around $5.00 from here but if it goes beyond that I will put it down to irrational exuberance unless some actual real evidence emerges that Telstra can start to grow its dividend.
If chasing dividend yield is your game the current TLS price doesn't offer much advantage over similarly good, 100% franked, dividend yielding stocks, such as the banks. At current prices I am holding but not acquiring. When I get my TLS dividends I normally use them to acquire more TLS but I will be ambivalent about this next March. Might be time to diversify.


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## MrBurns (19 February 2013)

They were down .14c initially and now they're back where they started almost.
In a day or 2, missed buying opportunity...... for me anyway.
Lesson for the future I guess.


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## JTLP (24 February 2013)

TLS is still yielding 6.1% - this is on par with NAB and higher than the other 3 banks.

Given the 28 cents looks pretty locked in for some time - and the nearest best yielding High Interest Saver getting about 5% for Mums & Pops - may not be too bad to hop in for the short term. If things were being based on yield alone - could run to $5.50 before equalling a saving account; however lets wait and see.

Thoughts?


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## Bintang (24 February 2013)

JTLP said:


> TLS is still yielding 6.1% - this is on par with NAB and higher than the other 3 banks.
> 
> Given the 28 cents looks pretty locked in for some time - and the nearest best yielding High Interest Saver getting about 5% for Mums & Pops - may not be too bad to hop in for the short term. If things were being based on yield alone - could run to $5.50 before equalling a saving account; however lets wait and see.
> 
> Thoughts?




JTLP I have a couple of thoughts for what they are worth:
1) Your Mums & Pops will pay tax at their marginal rate on any interest income so at a TLS share price of $5.50 a fully franked 5% dividend will still be better value than 5% savings account interest.
2) Nonetheless you need to consider the relative risks. In the share market your capital is at more risk than if it is in a bank account. So I personally would not buy TLS at a price which gave me an after tax yield which is merely as good  as the after tax interest from a savings account. I would want something better than that from TLS to justify the risk of having my capital in the share market rather than in the bank account. So if you are just chasing yield that consideration should put a cap on the price you are prepared to pay.  For me personally TLS has reached that very point at its current price of around $4.50 to $4.60. But risk judgement is subjective so there may well be investors who are prepared to buy TLS at prices that yield 5% or less in preference to putting their money in a savings deposit.


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## brianwh (1 March 2013)

*TLS and a change of Govt.*

Can anyone direct me to a credible analysis of the likely impact on TLS shares of a change in Govt. Given how widely held these are I would have thought it a topic fairly well covered. I have heard the issue addressed a couple of times on Your Money Your Call but the "experts" seemed fairly clueless


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## Bintang (2 March 2013)

*Re: TLS and a change of Govt.*



brianwh said:


> Can anyone direct me to a credible analysis of the likely impact on TLS shares of a change in Govt. Given how widely held these are I would have thought it a topic fairly well covered. I have heard the issue addressed a couple of times on Your Money Your Call but the "experts" seemed fairly clueless




I don't know about analysis but this article from the Financial Review is interesting:
http://www.afr.com/p/technology/telstra_keen_to_keep_its_darling_H8TPMnszDnY2hQvX7LUvKP

The article states that Malcolm Turnbull "...has indicated Telstra shareholders would be no worse off under his plan"  whatever that means.

But some of the so-called "experts" don't like TLS shares irrespective of what is happening with NBN. I can't figure out whether they are 'super geniuses', 'merely smarter than me', 'fairly clueless' or 'completely clueless'.
For example this is Roger Montgomery on Your Money Your Call:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn6a0pnEgFY

Here is some of what he says:
"...TLS has gone up because its popular. It hasn't gone up because it is good quality."
"...without a doubt they [Telstra] cannot afford that dividend [i.e 28 cents] from their cashflow from operations and with what they are doing"

"...they end up with free cash flow of about $600 million and their dividend was $1.7 billion  ... so they can't afford their dividend. I reckon they are  bleeding ... I think Telstra can't afford to do any of the things they would love to do because they have made a commitment to the market to pay this dividend and I don't think it is sustainable..."

"They are getting a big payment for retiring their copper network .... so from that cash they will pay the dividend but as an operating business,  from free cash flow they can't pay that dividend. You've got to keep that in mind. To me it's not a high quality business. All the best analysts covering this stock ... and they're better than me at it... they're saying that in 2014 the profits of this company are still not going to be any higher than they were in 2002. That's 10 years or 12 years and no growth in earnings."

So this guy is implying that without NBN cash TLS cannot pay its dividend. I struggle to understand this statement because having taken the trouble to read Telstra's annual and half yearly reports I observe the following:
There are 12,443 million TLS shareholders
In 2012 financial year Telstra received $67 million of NBN cash which equates to 0.5 cents per share.
In first half 2013 financial year Telstra reports receiving $176 million of NBN cash.
In the full 2013 financial year Telstra is expected to receive $343 million of NBN cash, which equates to 2.8 cents per share.

So doesn't look to me that Telstra is very dependent on NBN cash to pay its dividend of 28 cents per share but then again I'm only a pleb punter. I'm not an investment guru who gets to be interviewed on 'Your Money Your Call'


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## notting (2 March 2013)

*Re: TLS and a change of Govt.*



brianwh said:


> Can anyone direct me to a credible analysis of the likely impact on TLS shares of a change in Govt. Given how widely held these are I would have thought it a topic fairly well covered. I have heard the issue addressed a couple of times on Your Money Your Call but the "experts" seemed fairly clueless




Their not clueless.  These guys were calling it "Do not touch with a 10 foot pole, when it was 2.60 something. " Not sure what the word is for that    ruinous .:flush:
Ya wouldn't want to be looking to them for insight into what it might do next!!!

The conservative money is still coming in from cash looking for yield. 
 Whilst there is still a premium its likely to hold. 
I thought it was a buy below 3. 

I don't think the libs are going to modify too much,  everyone knows their a shoe in and there's no great sell off after the div payment .
Wait for the trend to end, there's plenty of room to give back a little on a reversal.


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## McLovin (2 March 2013)

The half year cash flow usually doesn't cover the divvie but the full year does. Last year they would have ended up with ~$600m surplus after paying dividends.


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## Country Lad (2 March 2013)

TLS free cash flow (after paying dividend) for 2011/12 was $349 mil.  The estimates for next periods according to one broker's research in $millions are:

2012/13     351
2013/14    (105)
2014/15    1,358

Cheers
Country Lad


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## McLovin (2 March 2013)

Country Lad said:


> TLS free cash flow (after paying dividend) for 2011/12 was $349 mil.




How did you get that number? I just checked and it looks to me like $568m including all capex. Presumably at least some of that capex was growth capex which would make FCF even higher. In any event, I don't understand why all these pundits are saying they can't afford their dividend.


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## Bintang (2 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> How did you get that number? I just checked and it looks to me like $568m including all capex. Presumably at least some of that capex was growth capex which would make FCF even higher. In any event, I don't understand why all these pundits are saying they can't afford their dividend.




Annual report 2012: 
Telstra reported free cashflow of $5197 million
Dividend payout was $3475 million

1st half report 2013:
Telstra reported free cash flow of $2155 million
Dividend payout was $1739 million

Now In the You tube video Roger Montgomery states bold as daylight that Telstra's 2013 first half free cash flow was $600 million and he was reading from Telstra's 'statement of cashflows'.
Either he doesn't know what free cash flow is or he needs glasses.
Glasses mus be the explanation because how could an 'expert' guru investment advisor be so completely wrong?


----------



## McLovin (2 March 2013)

Bintang said:


> Annual report 2012:
> Telstra reported free cashflow of $5197 million
> Dividend payout was $3475 million
> 
> ...




You've omitted interest payments. They are usually excluded to come up with FCF but included to work out "FCF to equity".

I can see what he's doing but seriously, to take a behemoth like TLS and say their dividend is unsustainable on the basis of a single half year report is a bit disingenuous.


----------



## Bintang (2 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> You've omitted interest payments. They are usually excluded to come up with FCF but included to work out "FCF to equity".
> 
> I can see what he's doing but seriously, to take a behemoth like TLS and say their dividend is unsustainable on the basis of a single half year report is a bit disingenuous.




Still think it only requires an ability to read:


----------



## McLovin (2 March 2013)

Well, it's hardly surprising that management use the most flattering calculation; unlevered FCF.


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## Country Lad (2 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> How did you get that number?




By summing the last 4 lines in the attached.

What constitutes the definition of "Free Cash Flow" seems to be an issue here.  I hold the old fashioned view that FCF should be the the amount left over after everything is paid, including dividend, but unfortunately many companies define it it more loosely and in particular before dividend payment - more along the lines of this is the amount left over from which we will pay a dividend.  Not really free cash flow in my view, seeing it is no longer there after paying the dividend.  May be logical for the half yearly as the dividend has not yet been paid but not for full year accounts.


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## Bintang (3 March 2013)

Country Lad said:


> What constitutes the definition of "Free Cash Flow" seems to be an issue here.




Granted we have to be careful about definitions but I think the real issue is whether or not Telstra can afford to continue paying a dividend of at least 28 cents/share. If I believed Roger Montgomery when he said: "...they end up with free cash flow of about $600 million and their dividend was $1.7 billion ... so they can't afford their dividend. I reckon they are bleeding ..." I might panic and hit the sell button on TLS while the going is good. But where does that $600 million figure come from (?) and whatever it is it is NOT the measure of Telstra's ability to afford its dividend payments. Question: What is a suitable measure?

Mclovin refers to the Telstra reported free cash flow as 'unlevered free cash flow'. I'm happy to use that terminology - after all it is just a label. More importantly I am going to use it as a 'relative measure' of Telstra's ability to pay its dividend.( I'm sure someone is going to object to this but I simply offer it up for discussion.)

So I've looked up Telstra's 'unlevered free cash flow' numbers back to 2002 and compared them to the annual dividend payouts as shown in the attached table. If Roger Montgomery is correct when he says Telstra is "bleeding" [i.e. currently] then it has been bleeding for a long time and from 2002 until 2009 it was bleeding more profusely than it is now - and in 2007 it was haemorrhaging!


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## craft (3 March 2013)

Telstra is not bleeding cash!

Roger Montgomery  is a ........

There is a little bit of economic liquidation going on and if the NBN is going to assist that process through paying to retire the copper all the better. The economic liquidation is more about transitioning and improving efficiency rather than a dying business.  

Simply a large and mature company constrained in growth by its size but one that is finally being run not too badly by current management.


----------



## McLovin (3 March 2013)

Bintang said:


> Mclovin refers to the Telstra reported free cash flow as 'unlevered free cash flow'. I'm happy to use that terminology - after all it is just a label. More importantly I am going to use it as a 'relative measure' of Telstra's ability to pay its dividend.( I'm sure someone is going to object to this but I simply offer it up for discussion.)




If you're purely looking at TLS ability to pay dividends then you should use levered FCF, not unlevered. The more you have to pay in interest the less you have available to pay in dividends. All things being equal if a company is paying more than its levered fcf (and we're including total capex in this calculation not just maintenance capex) in dividends, then it's either increasing its debt or its raising fresh equity. For a large low growth company like TLS that is unsustainable. They are not doing that though.


----------



## Bintang (3 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> If you're purely looking at TLS ability to pay dividends then you should use levered FCF, not unlevered. The more you have to pay in interest the less you have available to pay in dividends. All things being equal if a company is paying more than its levered fcf (and we're including total capex in this calculation not just maintenance capex) in dividends, then it's either increasing its debt or its raising fresh equity. For a large low growth company like TLS that is unsustainable. They are not doing that though.




In that case Telstra's dividend payout for 2011 and 2012 was about 80% of levered free cash flow and their net financing costs look to be decreasing. That's much better than previous years so I have to conclude that not only is Telstra NOT bleeding cash but it can comfortably pay its dividend. I wonder if there could even be a dividend increase on the horizon?


----------



## tinhat (4 March 2013)

Bintang said:


> In that case Telstra's dividend payout for 2011 and 2012 was about 80% of levered free cash flow and their net financing costs look to be decreasing. That's much better than previous years so I have to conclude that not only is Telstra NOT bleeding cash but it can comfortably pay its dividend. I wonder if there could even be a dividend increase on the horizon?




I haven't looked into the exact figures, but they gel with what the forecasts were when I made an investment decision to invest in late 2011. I quickly read the most recent Lincoln Indicators analyst report when the half year results came out and I know that if there was not a decent earnings coverage on the dividend (both present and forecast) it would not be in their income preferred stock list.

TLS have bee quite consistent in their guidance since the NBN deal was announced. The extra cash arising from the NBN payments will be paid out as dividends after any capital investments are provisioned for and only once franking credits are available to apply to those increased dividends.

Thank goodness that Sol Trujillo did one useful thing during his disastrous tenure and that was to invest in the 3G network ahead of the shift in the demand curve for data over mobile networking due to smart devices.

Hopefully Telstra can maintain this advantage in the mobile market though staying ahead of the curve. They seem to be fixing their customer relations and billing IT problems which was a big problem for them and they can stem the bleeding from the Sensis business which they have only made worst with failed online strategies (including the Trading Post acquisition).


----------



## brianwh (5 March 2013)

Those interested in the likely impact on the value of TLS shares as a result of the Coalitions proposed changes might be interested in this article.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...mises-m-pd20130305-5H436?OpenDocument&src=sph


----------



## alexandro (12 March 2013)

Boggo said:


> The first post above was made on 8th of September, it hast gained 10c since then and now we have a target of another 6 months
> 
> alexandro, can you show some analysis/qualification/information to substantiate that bold statement or is it just wishful thinking ?






Wow, look at that Boggo, looks like it was not wishful thinking after all. In the 4.00's in 18 months as I wrote back then. People we so critical towards my post on TLS back then. 

Looks like my posts on page 52 of the TLS forum were right on the money.


----------



## MrBurns (12 March 2013)

Well what's your prediction now ?


----------



## Boggo (13 March 2013)

alexandro said:


> Wow, look at that Boggo, looks like it was not wishful thinking after all. In the 4.00's in 18 months as I wrote back then. People we so critical towards my post on TLS back then.
> 
> *Looks like my posts on page 52 of the TLS forum were right on the money.*





I replied to your post on this link https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=52&p=631738&viewfull=1#post631738

Allow me to demonstrate what I was doing with reality (a couple of charts) while I was responding in a manner that was appropriate to your eloquent dialogue.
Never believe what you read, go with what you can see .

This is my current status...
Bought 10000 TLSIOI on 28/03/2012, have collected two dividends since then and with the current warrant bid price as of today I am up about $10800.00 including dividends.

Waiting now to see what the your outcome was of your analysis especially in light of your comment that I have highlighted in *bold* above.

(click to expand)


----------



## MrBurns (23 March 2013)

Just got my first TLS dividend..........very handy


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## Muschu (23 March 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Just got my first TLS dividend..........very handy




Already spent ours... Average buy price not much above $3.  Nice to get it right sometimes..... As for tomorrow, who knows?


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## MrBurns (24 March 2013)

Muschu said:


> Already spent ours... Average buy price not much above $3.  Nice to get it right sometimes..... As for tomorrow, who knows?




Bought at $4.07 so no reason to sell... ever... unless it starts to tank for some reason


----------



## McLovin (24 March 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Bought at $4.07 so no reason to sell... ever... unless it starts to tank for some reason




If your holding period is forever, then you should only worry if the business starts to tank, not the share price.


----------



## MrBurns (24 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> If your holding period is forever, then you should only worry if the business starts to tank, not the share price.




One would be tied to the other surely.


----------



## McLovin (24 March 2013)

MrBurns said:


> One would be tied to the other surely.




Of course over the long run that happens, but its share price in the short run can be linked to the market. Market drops 20%, TLS drops with it. Nothing about the business has changed.

If your holding forever, then worry about the business not the share price. At least that's what I do.


----------



## MrBurns (24 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> Of course over the long run that happens, but its share price in the short run can be linked to the market. Market drops 20%, TLS drops with it. Nothing about the business has changed.
> 
> If your holding forever, then worry about the business not the share price. At least that's what I do.




TLS seems to work contrary to the market. market up TLS down and vice versa


----------



## MrBurns (26 March 2013)

Seems to be tough going at the moment, trending down generally.


----------



## nulla nulla (26 March 2013)

Profit taking before the correction?


----------



## MrBurns (17 April 2013)

Now going gangbusters


----------



## Julia (17 April 2013)

I've not found any reason in news for the substantial rise today.  Anyone know?


----------



## skyQuake (17 April 2013)

Breakout


----------



## MrBurns (17 April 2013)

Julia said:


> I've not found any reason in news for the substantial rise today.  Anyone know?




Huge volume 45m +

Seems like another leg up ?


----------



## Bintang (17 April 2013)

Julia said:


> I've not found any reason in news for the substantial rise today.  Anyone know?




I'm only guessing but I suspect there's a lot of money seeking refuge from the rout in commodities and commodity stocks.
The TLS yield remains attractive.


----------



## Boggo (17 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Huge volume 45m +
> 
> Seems like another leg up ?




I hope so Mr B

There are a few stocks in a nice trend and barely affected by the random down days (TLS CCV CRZ MTU SUL etc).

(click to expand)


----------



## tinhat (17 April 2013)

Who knows where the money is coming from? But when the money printing presses are running - whether it be in Japan or the USA - that money has to find a home. With regards to the NBN versus fraudband issue - Telstra is the winner either way. TLS is still yielding 5.81% at today's close. TLS is looking sweet.

I loaded up on TLS quite a while ago. I'm looking at the opportunity to get into copper miners and other miners when the opportunity becomes available. I might sell down some TLS at some point if it gets over the $5 mark.


----------



## chops_a_must (17 April 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Breakout




Set up a bull spread last week because I liked the setup.

A week later I'll be unwinding because its at my profit target. 

Crazy stuff.


----------



## rcm617 (17 April 2013)

Sector as a whole is going gangbusters. My other Telco TPM has been doing even better than Telstra.
I think market likes the idea of the new fibre rollout under the liberals.


----------



## Muschu (17 April 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Breakout




And may it continue!  MTU and IIN are 2 other stellar performers.


----------



## Julia (17 April 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> A week later I'll be unwinding because its at my profit target.



Even if it's still in an uptrend?


----------



## nulla nulla (17 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> Who knows where the money is coming from? But when the money printing presses are running - whether it be in Japan or the USA - that money has to find a home. With regards to the NBN versus fraudband issue - Telstra is the winner either way. TLS is still yielding 5.81% at today's close. TLS is looking sweet.
> 
> I loaded up on TLS quite a while ago. I'm looking at the opportunity to get into copper miners and other miners when the opportunity becomes available. I might sell down some TLS at some point if it gets over the $5 mark.




David Potts in, SMH money section, suggests that all the Japanese Housewives are borrowing capital at extremely low interest rates and investing in Australian stocks with high yields. 1% borrowing interest with 5.6% yield. If the Yen falls against the dollar after they invest, even better for them. I can imagine some "Storm" type financial advisor recommending that they mortgage their houses and buy Aussie shares.


----------



## chops_a_must (17 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Even if it's still in an uptrend?




Bull spread has a maximum profit potential.

Distance between the two strikes, minus premium paid.

I can roll out, leaving a long call, buy the underlying, or create a butterfly if I want to capture a breakout. But it's reached my target, so I'm easy from this point on.


----------



## prawn_86 (17 April 2013)

nulla nulla said:


> David Potts in, SMH money section, suggests that all the Japanese Housewives are borrowing capital at extremely low interest rates and investing in Australian stocks with high yields. 1% borrowing interest with 5.6% yield. If the Yen falls against the dollar after they invest, even better for them. I can imagine some "Storm" type financial advisor recommending that they mortgage their houses and buy Aussie shares.




With the currencies how they are it becomes a currency play not a yield play, unless they hedge, which then takes away any yield difference 

Not saying its not happening, i doubt it though


----------



## tinhat (18 April 2013)

Announcement:


> Defence awards Telstra six year contract for enhanced telecommunications
> 18 April 2013 – Defence has signed a $1.1 billion contract with Telstra for the provision of telecommunications services. The six-and-a-half year contract will enable Defence to transform its communications technology including better integrating fixed telecommunications with satellite and tactical networks.


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2013)

Jeeeez just had a look there's something going on..........wish I had a lot more but just grateful I did what I did when I did


----------



## Julia (18 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> wish I had a lot more but just grateful I did what I did when I did



Me too.  However, I saw an article this morning somewhere "Is it time to sell TLS?"


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Me too.  However, I saw an article this morning somewhere "Is it time to sell TLS?"




It might be but I'm really in there for the yield, if I sell I pay tax .....


----------



## Julia (18 April 2013)

I wouldn't be contemplating it either, Burnsie.  Bought for the same reasons as you did.
Just a bit amused that every time a stock has a slightly greater than usual rise, someone has to say that it's time to sell.


----------



## MrBurns (18 April 2013)

Julia said:


> I wouldn't be contemplating it either, Burnsie.  Bought for the same reasons as you did.
> Just a bit amused that every time a stock has a slightly greater than usual rise, someone has to say that it's time to sell.




I'd like to get more but I'm not brave enough


----------



## chops_a_must (18 April 2013)

Julia said:


> I wouldn't be contemplating it either, Burnsie.  Bought for the same reasons as you did.
> Just a bit amused that every time a stock has a slightly greater than usual rise, someone has to say that it's time to sell.




And that's why the "experts" don't perform.

Things go up, sell.

Things go down, buy.

Idjits.


----------



## tinhat (18 April 2013)

Julia said:


> I wouldn't be contemplating it either, Burnsie.  Bought for the same reasons as you did.
> Just a bit amused that every time a stock has a slightly greater than usual rise, someone has to say that it's time to sell.




They're paid to write so they have to make it up.


----------



## Muschu (18 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Me too.  However, I saw an article this morning somewhere "Is it time to sell TLS?"




Hi Julia

I twice received a "MÃ¶tley Fool" email with this article title today.  (Although I am not a subscriber).  An attached article, amidst some verbosity, appeared to suggest that the "current" answer is "No".  Usual cautious and self-protective additives.

We have held TLS since it was about $3 and certainly do not plan to let it go without good reason.  

Rick


----------



## MrBurns (22 April 2013)

Ok let's have your opinions has TLS topped out or is there more upside ?


----------



## Muschu (23 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Ok let's have your opinions has TLS topped out or is there more upside ?




If you are asking me Mr B, I have no idea.

I'm a retiree with a SMSF.  TLS has been offering me excellent returns.  Would I ever sell? Of course but see no reason to at this time.  I'll just keep observing.


----------



## Julia (23 April 2013)

Rick, sorry, I missed your earlier post.  You'll be even happier with your TLS on the basis of today's rise.


----------



## MrBurns (23 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Rick, sorry, I missed your earlier post.  You'll be even happier with your TLS on the basis of today's rise.




If the RBA lower rates to get the dollar down to help business this may just be the start..........I feel like rolling the dice

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26662


----------



## Muschu (23 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Rick, sorry, I missed your earlier post.  You'll be even happier with your TLS on the basis of today's rise.




No need to be sorry Julia but certainly TLS has been good value.  Just don't put it down to my "astuteness" as I could also refer to several losses.  The last several years have been a fascinating ride and it will be no surprise if this continues.

I hope I am not complacent and doubt the ride is done... Volatility has perhaps become "ordinary"....


----------



## MrBurns (23 April 2013)

Muschu said:


> No need to be sorry Julia but certainly TLS has been good value.  Just don't put it down to my "astuteness" as I could also refer to several losses.  The last several years have been a fascinating ride and it will be no surprise if this continues.
> 
> I hope I am not complacent and doubt the ride is done... Volatility has perhaps become "ordinary"....




Thanks Rick, I was looking for some analysis that might indicate something, anything to help with the voodoo that I usually go by.


----------



## Muschu (23 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks Rick, I was looking for some analysis that might indicate something, anything to help with the voodoo that I usually go by.




Sorry but I am not up to that level of analysis Mr B.    In this instance your voodoo approach may have worked.   Please don't transfer this thought into future investment thoughts... Decisions need to be evidenced based - in my view.


----------



## Country Lad (24 April 2013)

TLS is a good example why valuations are mostly a waste of time and the market determines the price of a share regardless of theoretical valuations.  For at least 12 months all the brokers have had valuations on Telstra well below the market price.  

All are saying that that there will be no impact on TLS when the coalition wins government.  All are saying that their DCF valuation is around the $4 mark and most have a neutral recommendation. Yet the price has kept rising as the market determines its own value.

As talk of further rate cuts continue TLS will remain a popular yield stock, which, along with the Defence contract,  I think accounts for its recent price rise.  I am happy to hold at this stage.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

Country Lad said:


> I am happy to hold at this stage.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




But are you happy to buy more ?

I see TLS as bullet proof from a number of angles, it's a secure monopoly, even if the market corrects it will come back as it's IT sector is one of infinite growth..........


----------



## Country Lad (24 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> But are you happy to buy more ?
> 
> I see TLS as bullet proof from a number of angles, it's a secure monopoly, even if the market corrects it will come back as it's IT sector is one of infinite growth..........




No, but that is because I have enough.  Everybody is concentrating on the (very little or no) effect a change of government will have.  I tend to look more at the changing market.  Sure, there will be connections to the NBN or the coalition alternative, and less household fixed phone connections, but in the meantime the real growth is in wireless with all the new smartphones, gadgets and aps.  TLS is best placed with their extensive network around the country and the increasing 4G rollout, so I expect them to take advantage of the growth in that lucrative segment of the market.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

Country Lad said:


> No, but that is because I have enough.  Everybody is concentrating on the (very little or no) effect a change of government will have.  I tend to look more at the changing market.  Sure, there will be connections to the NBN or the coalition alternative, and less household fixed phone connections, but in the meantime the real growth is in wireless with all the new smartphones, gadgets and aps.  TLS is best placed with their extensive network around the country and the increasing 4G rollout, so I expect them to take advantage of the growth in that lucrative segment of the market.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Well if they're well placed for wireless I can only see that as rivers of gold, I'm tempted to jump in harder.......however the whole thing is a gamble, for all the professional advice out there no one seems to actually have any reliable answers.


----------



## prawn_86 (24 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> .......however the whole thing is a gamble, for all the professional advice out there no one seems to actually have any reliable answers.




You go through this over and over every time you are thinking of making an investment decision. Either find an adviser you trust, learn to do it youirself with confidence, or accept that it is just gambling and get on with it rather than umming and ahhing for weeks each time

If someone did have reliable answers then it would be easy wouldnt it.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> You go through this over and over every time you are thinking of making an investment decision. Either find an adviser you trust, learn to do it youirself with confidence, or accept that it is just gambling and get on with it rather than umming and ahhing for weeks each time
> 
> If someone did have reliable answers then it would be easy wouldnt it.




So you have no opinion ?, that's what this thread was asking.


----------



## prawn_86 (24 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> So you have no opinion ?, that's what this thread was asking.




On TLS specifically i would never invest in them because of their management and the way they treat their customers. 

Beyond that i have not delved very deeply due to the above fact. Their yield was quite good, and being the dominant player of an oligopoly is always a strong position, however they are exposed to government regulation, like most in a similar positions.


----------



## Julia (24 April 2013)

Country Lad said:


> TLS is a good example why valuations are mostly a waste of time and the market determines the price of a share regardless of theoretical valuations.  For at least 12 months all the brokers have had valuations on Telstra well below the market price.



Yes.  Which is why trend followers prefer that price based approach to 'value investing'.


----------



## craft (24 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Ok let's have your opinions has TLS topped out or is there more upside ?




Short to medium term, any business specific matters are going to have little to do with the price. Because of the size and nature of the business – underlying valuation (at a fixed discount rate) changes little and slowly.

What’s driving TLS from a valuation perspective is changes to the discount rate.  As alternative investments return less and less – people are willing to drive the price up and yield down on TLS because it’s a perceived better bet than say a term deposit etc.

So if you want to know where TLS is going in the short term, ask yourself where interest rates are going short term.

A complication though is the currency; it may start to fall if the yield differential with other countries is eliminated   so you could have a positive for TLS from reduced interest rates and a negative from fleeing international capital.

Ditto the banks and other large yield plays in Aus.


----------



## sinner (24 April 2013)

IMHO the rise in TLS has very little to do with idiosyncratic risk, probably 95% of the rise in price can be explained by TLS presence on ASX Dividend Yield indices and Global Dividend Yield indices, which have been in high demand since Sep 2011.

i.e. I concur entirely with craft.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

craft said:


> So if you want to know where TLS is going in the short term, ask yourself where interest rates are going short term.
> 
> A complication though is the currency; it may start to fall if the yield differential with other countries is eliminated   so you could have a positive for TLS from reduced interest rates and a negative from fleeing international capital.
> 
> .




I think that's exactly what about to happen, rates will go down to bring the dollar back to help business which is on it's knees, so one will inflate the price the other bring it back again.

Which is the stronger influence ? That will dictate what will happen to the TLS price


----------



## Julia (24 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> You go through this over and over every time you are thinking of making an investment decision. Either find an adviser you trust, learn to do it youirself with confidence, or accept that it is just gambling and get on with it rather than umming and ahhing for weeks each time



Is that quite fair?  Mr Burns is just being honest enough to express his uncertainty publicly, something I expect many others also feel.

Perhaps consider something you're always promoting, i.e. more comment on stock threads.  His questions have provoked responses from multiple other posters.  If you only encourage questions and comments from people who are confident about what they're doing, you're going to significantly limit any discussion imo.

(I'm personally appreciative of the input of  others on this thread.)


----------



## prawn_86 (24 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Is that quite fair?  Mr Burns is just being honest enough to express his uncertainty publicly, something I expect many others also feel.
> 
> Perhaps consider something you're always promoting, i.e. more comment on stock threads.  His questions have provoked responses from multiple other posters.  If you only encourage questions and comments from people who are confident about what they're doing, you're going to significantly limit any discussion imo.
> 
> (I'm personally appreciative of the input of  others on this thread.)




Without meaning to derail the thread (so this will be my last post on the matter), there is a lot of agonising that he goes through for each investment decision, as far as i can tell. 

I am all for asking questions, and you will note that most of the questions have been answered, but if it is just a should I/shouldn't I/its seems like a gamble comment, that is never going to change and be like that for every stock until the investor has a plan. I would have thought that since the last investment decision (which was very successful for MrBurns) there would have been more research about the market and the stock and then he would know what questions to ask rather than bemoaning if he should put more money into it because it is a gamble.

Personal view only of that one specific post, many other posts have some very good questions which have generated a lot of discussion


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

Julia said:


> Is that quite fair?  Mr Burns is just being honest enough to express his uncertainty publicly, something I expect many others also feel.
> 
> Perhaps consider something you're always promoting, i.e. more comment on stock threads.  His questions have provoked responses from multiple other posters.  If you only encourage questions and comments from people who are confident about what they're doing, you're going to significantly limit any discussion imo.
> 
> (I'm personally appreciative of the input of  others on this thread.)




Thanks Julia I was going to respond to that effect but couldn't be bothered, sometimes online comments get misinterpreted, but annoying to have a query thrown off track by an unhelpful comment.

Waiting on NAB trade , they've taken so long the price has increased 3c while waiting for their newby girl to get things right.

Have just doubled my investment, I expect it to be volatile but ok in the end.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

Bloody unreal the price went up so much they had to come back to me to transfer more across to buy the quantity I wanted, s l o w


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Without meaning to derail the thread (so this will be my last post on the matter), there is a lot of agonising that he goes through for each investment decision, as far as i can tell.
> 
> I am all for asking questions, and you will note that most of the questions have been answered, but if it is just a should I/shouldn't I/its seems like a gamble comment, that is never going to change and be like that for every stock until the investor has a plan. I would have thought that since the last investment decision (which was very successful for MrBurns) there would have been more research about the market and the stock and then he would know what questions to ask rather than bemoaning if he should put more money into it because it is a gamble.
> 
> Personal view only of that one specific post, many other posts have some very good questions which have generated a lot of discussion




Don't worry about it prawn, I was flushing out the experienced thoughts of any ASF members that cared to answer and to them I say Thank You


----------



## Ves (24 April 2013)

Country Lad said:


> TLS is a good example why valuations are mostly a waste of time and the market determines the price of a share regardless of theoretical valuations.  For at least 12 months all the brokers have had valuations on Telstra well below the market price.
> 
> All are saying that that there will be no impact on TLS when the coalition wins government.  All are saying that their DCF valuation is around the $4 mark and most have a neutral recommendation. Yet the price has kept rising as the market determines its own value.



Yet another poster trying to claim that valuation is useless because a few brokers got it wrong (pushing their own "technical analysis or the highway type agenda.")  I've had several PMs and such over the last 18 months saying that I will never make any money relying on DCFs and valuation models and that I should read such and such technical analysis classic because it will cleanse my mind (and line someone else's pockets of course).

I'm not sure if you are implying the following, but the assumption that all valuations are most likely wrong if the price keeps rising above them is naive at best as is the reverse you are probably be wrong because the stock is falling.

Just to clarify - there were value investors  (same post here) buying this well under $3.50 when _some chartists_ were saying that it would be silly to buy it as it was in the mother-of-all-downtrends.   I don't think the same people bought this on valuation grounds at $9, either.

Value exists - and just because it doesn't appear in time for the nightly news doesn't mean that the price won't track it over the long-term.

I'm sure I'll get a chorus of angry posters saying "how dare I respond to your post in this fashion." But I don't really care any more, the claim that something that has worked for others and myself "is mostly a waste of time" is a bit much for me.


----------



## Country Lad (24 April 2013)

Ves said:


> Yet another poster trying to claim that valuation is useless because a few brokers got it wrong (pushing their own "technical analysis or the highway type agenda.")  ..................................
> 
> I'm not sure if you are implying the following, but the assumption that all valuations are most likely wrong if the price keeps rising above them is naive at best as is the reverse you are probably be wrong because the stock is falling.




No I haven't implied that and if you are going to read that sort of crap into my posts I would prefer you don't respond to any of my posts - put me on the ignore list would be good, so that I don't have to read your garbage as a response to something I didn't say.

CL


----------



## Ves (24 April 2013)

Country Lad said:


> No I haven't implied that and if you are going to read that sort of crap into my posts I would prefer you don't respond to any of my posts - put me on the ignore list would be good, so that I don't have to read your garbage as a response to something I didn't say.
> 
> CL



You are making an argument for efficient market hypothesis whether you know it or not.  My post is not that far off the mark for this reason.   Please explain how you are not saying emh exists?


----------



## Country Lad (24 April 2013)

Ves said:


> You are making an argument for efficient market hypothesis whether you know it or not.  My post is not that far off the mark for this reason.   Please explain how you are not saying emh exists?




Sorry, I don't respond to nonsense


----------



## Ves (24 April 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Sorry, I don't respond to nonsense



Do you even know what the position of EMH is? Because you pretty closely described it in your first post.


----------



## drsmith (24 April 2013)

To me, the difference in performance between the materials sector and the defensive high dividend yielders may be leading to a bubble in the latter as capital chases equity yields due to declining deposit interest rates.

A healthy rise in the equity market to me would be one where the outlook for sectors that contribute majorly to our economy participate in the positive trend.

That being said, it's difficult to know when bubbles are going to pop. Telstra might be $7 in a years time, it might be $3, who knows.


----------



## MrBurns (24 April 2013)

drsmith said:


> To me, the difference in performance between the materials sector and the defensive high dividend yielders may be leading to a bubble in the latter as capital chases equity yields due to declining deposit interest rates.
> 
> A healthy rise in the equity market to me would be one where the outlook for sectors that contribute majorly to our economy participate in the positive trend.
> 
> That being said, it's difficult to know when bubbles are going to pop. Telstra might be $7 in a years time, it might be $3, who knows.




I agree but Telstra are in a unique position so my guess it is protected to a great degree, though the last time I was right was ..........errr I forget


----------



## skyQuake (24 April 2013)

sinner posted a chart a whole ago showing how broker valuations tend to be backwards looking rather than forwards looking. 

See below for TLS Price targets for Credit Suisse and Citi. vs TLS price
	

		
			
		

		
	






Lets keep it civil


----------



## McLovin (24 April 2013)

Broker reports are good for certain things, like if you need an estimate of how profitable a division/product line is. They're rubbish for just about everything else. It would be interesting to see the difference between buy side and sell side forecasts.


----------



## Boggo (24 April 2013)

McLovin said:


> Broker reports are good for certain things, like if you need an estimate of how profitable a division/product line is. They're rubbish for just about everything else. It would be interesting to see the difference between buy side and sell side forecasts.





Gotta agree.

I have yet to see a broker report that makes any sense, especially when a stock is in freefall.
They seem to keep their amateur Buffetoligists amused but as far as anyone surviving on their expert advice they may need to also include where baked beans are on special.

Here is just one example from last November... (there are many others and they never fail to amuse)

*UBS rates BBG as Buy*
Tuesday, November 20, 2012 - 10:24

Billabong Director and US boss Paul Naude is set to put the fox amongst the chickens, indicating his intention to put together a leveraged buyout (LBO) plan to purchase the company. He will step aside from duties while formulating a plan, with the broker noting that at this point it appears that he's out on his own.

The broker has its doubts, believing financing will be difficult to secure, while shareholders and the board are likely to have a much different view on value than new lenders/investors would have.

In short, a deal is unlikely and the downside is that if this LBO fails, it may be the last of Paul Naude, who is well regarded. Buy call, price target and forecasts maintained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.82 Difference:$0.28 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BBG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.06.


----------



## McLovin (24 April 2013)

Boggo said:


> I have yet to see a broker report that makes any sense, especially when a stock is in freefall.
> They seem to keep their amateur Buffetoligists amused but as far as anyone surviving on their expert advice they may need to also include where baked beans are on special.




Like I said, what a buy side analyst and sell side analyst are saying about a stock is probably vastly different. I doubt you've ever seen a buy side analyst report.


----------



## Muschu (24 April 2013)

Isn't the only reality the SP movement and (volume) momentum?

I have no idea how to judge tops and bottoms.


----------



## TikoMike (24 April 2013)

McLovin said:


> Broker reports are good for certain things, like if you need an estimate of how profitable a division/product line is. They're rubbish for just about everything else. It would be interesting to see the difference between buy side and sell side forecasts.




Brokers make their money of activity and absolutely love activity. I don't think anyone with a brain should be following their buy/sell forecasts. But yeah you're right, most of the reports are generally rubbish except for the financial data they can present. Just their opinion is questionable.


----------



## sinner (25 April 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> You go through this over and over every time you are thinking of making an investment decision. Either find an adviser you trust, learn to do it youirself with confidence, or accept that it is just gambling and get on with it rather than umming and ahhing for weeks each time
> 
> If someone did have reliable answers then it would be easy wouldnt it.




I concur wholeheartedly.


----------



## MrBurns (25 April 2013)

Well, better close this web site,if it's not here for advice and discussion it has no purpose.


----------



## MrBurns (27 April 2013)

> Chinese in running for Optus 4G deal
> 
> 
> 
> ...





http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/chinese-in-running-for-optus-4g-deal-20130426-2ijze.html


----------



## MrBurns (30 April 2013)

Hit $5 today:bier:


----------



## sammy84 (30 April 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Hit $5 today:bier:




Still unrealised gains.

Do you have an exit plan?


----------



## MrBurns (30 April 2013)

sammy84 said:


> Still unrealised gains.
> 
> Do you have an exit plan?




Na, I want them for the yield, as long as they don't look like tanking I'll keep them long term.

Everyone's looking for yield now that's why the banks have gone berserk as well.


----------



## rbgmauq (30 April 2013)

At present, TLS is facing the resistance of 5.00. The technical indicator shows a buy. Six months target: 5.84


----------



## MrBurns (30 April 2013)

rbgmauq said:


> At present, TLS is facing the resistance of 5.00. The technical indicator shows a buy. Six months target: 5.84




I suspect you are right, sorry I missed the banks but glad I got TLS...........finally.


----------



## MaZed (1 May 2013)

rbgmauq said:


> At present, TLS is facing the resistance of 5.00. The technical indicator shows a buy. Six months target: 5.84




Hi there, what do you mean by technical indicator? Sorry I'm a newbie...

Thanks


----------



## Boggo (1 May 2013)

rbgmauq said:


> At present, TLS is facing the resistance of 5.00. The technical indicator shows a buy. Six months target: 5.84




My technical indicator has it as a buy too as displayed below. I don't have a price target as such but I am interested in "the technical indicator" and how you established your target.

(click to expand)


----------



## tinhat (1 May 2013)

I wonder if people realise that there are defensive stocks that are breaking out of their 07 highs at the moment. I've just looked at TLS and CBA on monthly charts. CBA broke above its 07 high in January. TLS is doing so now. Plenty of blue sky ahead for TLS in the medium term in my humble opinion.

PS: That said, would not be worried about a period of consolidation before another move up.


----------



## sptrawler (1 May 2013)

At last, buying TLS at $3 is paying off, maybe I will recover the money lost on the second tranche.

However jumping out of CBA at $54 and onto WBC at $19 has worked out o.k


----------



## MrBurns (1 May 2013)

tinhat said:


> I wonder if people realise that there are defensive stocks that are breaking out of their 07 highs at the moment. I've just looked at TLS and CBA on monthly charts. CBA broke above its 07 high in January. TLS is doing so now. Plenty of blue sky ahead for TLS in the medium term in my humble opinion.
> 
> PS: That said, would not be worried about a period of consolidation before another move up.




I agree at some stage there will be some profit taking..............or will there be ?


----------



## Ann (6 May 2013)

Just thought I would throw in a chart showing a potential Cup and Handle pattern on TLS. The cup is complete, it needs a bit of a pullback to form the handle. Should it resolve into this chart shape, I did the swing trade calculations for it and can see $8.40 being the target price.

Let's see!


----------



## Bintang (6 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Just thought I would throw in a chart showing a potential Cup and Handle pattern on TLS. The cup is complete, it needs a bit of a pullback to form the handle. Should it resolve into this chart shape, I did the swing trade calculations for it and can see $8.40 being the target price.
> 
> Let's see!




Ann, excuse me for asking but do you ever actually trade on the basis of this type of mumbo jumbo and how successful are you? Did you buy TLS when it was below 3.00 and if so what were your black magic charts telling you at the time. Was it perhaps a cauldron pattern merging into a broom handle or cat's tail?


----------



## MrBurns (6 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> Ann, excuse me for asking but do you ever actually trade on the basis of this type of mumbo jumbo and how successful are you? Did you buy TLS when it was below 3.00 and if so what were your black magic charts telling you at the time. Was it perhaps a cauldron pattern merging into a broom handle or cat's tail?




Leave her alone, I'm with Ann all the way


----------



## Ann (6 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Leave her alone, I'm with Ann all the way




Thank you for your kind words Mr Burns most appreciated!:remybussi



Bintang said:


> Ann, excuse me for asking but do you ever actually trade on the basis of this type of mumbo jumbo and how successful are you? Did you buy TLS when it was below 3.00 and if so what were your black magic charts telling you at the time. Was it perhaps a cauldron pattern merging into a broom handle or cat's tail?




Hi Bintang

I can really understand where you are coming from!  
Charts are simply the trail left behind by all the inside information and outside influences over whatever is being charted. It allows me to easily set stop levels below which I am not pepared to hold a stock. It shows all the market sentiment in a single snapshot. For whatever reason, charts tend to regularly throw up patterns of similar shapes. These patterns can hold a potential for an outcome...and I do say potential because there are no ironclad guarantees that I have actually read it correctly or that it will resolve the way I think it may.

I would never buy a stock without first refering to a chart. 

I use an indicator that tells me what the general population think of a stock. It is the PVI or Positive Volume Indicator. It has been negative to neutral about Telstra so without a signal from that indicator I am hesistant to put my money on it. So no I didn't buy under three dollars and I am not likely to buy into it at all other than indirectly. 

Why did I chart it? Because it was developing an interesting shape and I am like a piano player who needs to practice their scales.

_*smiles a wrinkly smile, cackles, picks up the cat and heads off to the cauldron to throw in some more candlesticks!_


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## Bintang (6 May 2013)

Ann,
Thank you for the explanation and for not taking offence at my humour.
If you are right I am more than happy to ride TLS all the way to 8.40 along with Mr Burns.
My biggest worry will be the obscene amount of tax I will owe the ATO if I cash out a that price.
Bintang


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## MrBurns (6 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> Ann,
> Thank you for the explanation and for not taking offence at my humour.
> If you are right I am more than happy to ride TLS all the way to 8.40 along with Mr Burns.
> My biggest worry will be the obscene amount of tax I will owe the ATO if I cash out a that price.
> Bintang




Just keep them for yield........on the other hand the Govt spends the money so wisely it's a pleasure to pay as much tax as possible


----------



## Bintang (6 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Just keep them for yield........on the other hand the Govt spends the money so wisely it's a pleasure to pay as much tax as possible




Mr Burns I invite you to pay my tax for me when the time comes.


----------



## MrBurns (6 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> Mr Burns I invite you to pay my tax for me when the time comes.




I wouldn't deprive you of the pleasure.


----------



## burglar (6 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> ... My biggest worry will be the obscene amount of tax ...




I wish I had an obscene amount of tax to pay!


----------



## Bintang (6 May 2013)

burglar said:


> I wish I had an obscene amount of tax to pay!




You will if Federal Labor stays in power much longer. Be careful what you wish for.


----------



## MrBurns (6 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> You will if Federal Labor stays in power much longer. Be careful what you wish for.




That's right she's maxed out the credit card but that's ok she can take whatever she likes from you.


----------



## dtraeger (6 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> That's right she's maxed out the credit card but that's ok she can take whatever she likes from you.




Lets see if she raises a funeral levy and then goes and arranges one for herself. Id put my hand up to pay that one.

Back onto TLS. When the NBN comes in, TLS infrastructure will no longer be in use which is its main (only?) asset. I predict everyone will swap to a voip service for phone since the bandwidth/reliability will support it. As a result, other telcos stop paying rent/wholesale fees, causing income to drop, causing yield to drop, causing demand to drop causing price to drop. What then?


----------



## chops_a_must (6 May 2013)

dtraeger said:


> Lets see if she raises a funeral levy and then goes and arranges one for herself. Id put my hand up to pay that one.




Not cool.


----------



## herzy (6 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> That's right she's maxed out the credit card but that's ok she can take whatever she likes from you.




Can we please keep this to Telstra, rather than the usual Labour bashing. If you are interested, please at least try to get a bit of perspective and an informed opinion by looking at the public expenditure of any other developed country. Any examples of her maxing out our AAA credit limit or upping taxes (ummm Cyprus?) would possibly give a bit more credit. I'm surprised that for a group of people who invest based on their research skills, people are remarkably uninformed. Also, agreed, death suggestions? Not cool. Cheers.


----------



## dtraeger (6 May 2013)

Sorry, it was meant in jest.

At least i had an ontopic component in my post


----------



## MrBurns (7 May 2013)

herzy said:


> Can we please keep this to Telstra, rather than the usual Labour bashing. If you are interested, please at least try to get a bit of perspective and an informed opinion by looking at the public expenditure of any other developed country. Any examples of her maxing out our AAA credit limit or upping taxes (ummm Cyprus?) would possibly give a bit more credit. I'm surprised that for a group of people who invest based on their research skills, people are remarkably uninformed. Also, agreed, death suggestions? Not cool. Cheers.




I don't need to look at other countries I've seen the waste here under Labor and I'm shocked and angry, I don't give a rats about Cyprus, it's like saying we have a serious disease but that's ok because that bloke over there has a worse one. You've dragged this further off topic , it was just a mild diversion before your post which in itself was way off topic..........now back to business


----------



## dtraeger (7 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I don't need to look at other countries I've seen the waste here under Labor and I'm shocked and angry, I don't give a rats about Cyprus, it's like saying we have a serious disease but that's ok because that bloke over there has a worse one. You've dragged this further off topic , it was just a mild diversion before your post which in itself was way off topic..........now back to business




Thanks.

So how about that NBN reducing TLS wholesale dept income as per my last post?


----------



## MrBurns (7 May 2013)

dtraeger said:


> Thanks.
> 
> So how about that NBN reducing TLS wholesale dept income as per my last post?




I hadn't thought of that, I await further comment......


----------



## MrBurns (7 May 2013)

Down a bit today but on low volume.......


----------



## Knobby22 (7 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Down a bit today but on low volume.......




I get the feeling you are on a white knuckled roller coaster ride with this company.


----------



## MrBurns (7 May 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> I get the feeling you are on a white knuckled roller coaster ride with this company.




Not at all, I just enjoy watching things I have a fair bit of money in.


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## Knobby22 (7 May 2013)

Just kidding. I own some too.
With interest rates falling and the possibility of the NBN being changed to enrich Telstra shareholders further, I am a confident holder of them.


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## dtraeger (7 May 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Just kidding. I own some too.
> With interest rates falling and the possibility of the NBN being changed to enrich Telstra shareholders further, I am a confident holder of them.




My post a few posts up was suggesting the opposite, do you have info you could link me i may have missed?


----------



## MrBurns (7 May 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Just kidding. I own some too.
> With interest rates falling and the possibility of the NBN being changed to enrich Telstra shareholders further, I am a confident holder of them.




Anything can happen but as long as nothing surfaces to injure TLS badly I'm happy to hold for the long term.


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## Paccioli (14 May 2013)

dtraeger said:


> My post a few posts up was suggesting the opposite, do you have info you could link me i may have missed?



Near as I recall, TLS was paid 11 G$ to compensate for the desuetude of its copper network. If the Libs are silly enough to buy it back again, I will own some TLS for the ride. Who knows, one day another government may compensate for the copper a second time . Australia, home of the most expensive copper ever known.


----------



## Knobby22 (14 May 2013)

Paccioli said:


> Near as I recall, TLS was paid 11 G$ to compensate for the desuetude of its copper network. If the Libs are silly enough to buy it back again, I will own some TLS for the ride. Who knows, one day another government may compensate for the copper a second time . Australia, home of the most expensive copper ever known.




Yes, exactly. There may have been only one Bond for Packer but the government just keep on giving for Telstra.


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## Gringotts Bank (14 May 2013)

I wouldn't be the only one, surely?  

des•ue•tude (ˈdɛs wɪˌtud, -ˌtyud)

n.  the state of being no longer used or practiced.


----------



## tinhat (15 May 2013)

Paccioli said:


> Near as I recall, TLS was paid 11 G$ to compensate for the desuetude of its copper network. If the Libs are silly enough to buy it back again, I will own some TLS for the ride. Who knows, one day another government may compensate for the copper a second time . Australia, home of the most expensive copper ever known.





Copper can be shiny, dull or verdigre - a bit like the human mind. The deal with Telstra is not really about buying their red gold - that's a metaphor (obviously). It is about Telstra giving up structural separation, physically shutting down their consumer end of their network into the premises and being compensated for it. That change in market structure will remain under the NBN whether it gets built out as a FTTN or FTTP network. The NBN will still end up owning the actual wiring - whether they use it to connect fibre from the node to the premises or not isn't really material to Telstra. Thodey gave an interview the other day where he basically said that as far as Telstra is concerned they don't care. In principle the deal is about Telstra divesting of that end of the network.

Whether there is a change of government and a change from a FTTP to a FTTN roll-out I doubt it is going to affect Telstra at all. The only person who seems to be getting all up into a bother over the NBN is Rupert Murdoch. I guess he isn't happy about losing his Pay TV monopoly with Foxtel. Ironic in that Telstra paid for the physical infrastructure that Foxtel runs on.


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## Julia (15 May 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I wouldn't be the only one, surely?
> 
> des•ue•tude (ˈdɛs wɪˌtud, -ˌtyud)
> 
> n.  the state of being no longer used or practiced.



No, you are not.  Thanks to Paccioli for an interesting word I'd not come across before.


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## herzy (16 May 2013)

Julia said:


> No, you are not.  Thanks to Paccioli for an interesting word I'd not come across before.




+1.


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## MrBurns (24 May 2013)

Anyone think of any particular reason TLS is in free fall ?

I thought the restructure toward wireless and expansion into Asia was a good thing ?


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## prawn_86 (24 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Anyone think of any particular reason TLS is in free fall ??




As skyquake mentioned in a different thread. General sentiment away from yield and probable cashing in on profits by overseas investors. See the AUD chart also for Australian hours selling pressure


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## Knobby22 (24 May 2013)

It's not just Telstra. it's all high dividend shares.
Mortgage Choice for instance has also dropped substantially. I think it is people scared of the $A falling, moving their money offshore.


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## MrBurns (24 May 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> As skyquake mentioned in a different thread. General sentiment away from yield and probable cashing in on profits by overseas investors. See the AUD chart also for Australian hours selling pressure




Ah yes I posted something on that myself, people moving away from yield in anticipation of higher interest rates ?

Seemed a bit odd to me.


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## Trembling Hand (24 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Seemed a bit odd to me.




Only because its against you.


----------



## sammy84 (24 May 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Only because its against you.




Haha.

Did it seem odd when Telstra was running hot as a yield play?


----------



## MrBurns (24 May 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Only because its against you.






sammy84 said:


> Haha.
> 
> Did it seem odd when Telstra was running hot as a yield play?




No it's seems odd that people are thinking rates will rise.............sorry to spoil your nasty shots.


----------



## Ann (24 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Anyone think of any particular reason TLS is in free fall ?
> 
> I thought the restructure toward wireless and expansion into Asia was a good thing ?




Hello MrBurns, the market as a whole is retracing and consolidating, a very healthy sign. It is testing a long term support/resistance line at the moment. It may fail to hold to the line but it is still fine and all good, it may be looking for support from a rising support line. On my chart for TLS I put up a little while ago you may have noticed I drew in a period of retracement in order to form the 'handle' for the 'cup and handle' chart pattern. This may be the start of the handle and absolutely nothing to give you any concerns...very healthy, very good sign! Here is a link to the chart so you can see what is happening at the moment was totally foreseeable and desireable. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=770395&viewfull=1#post770395


----------



## Trembling Hand (24 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> No it's seems odd that people are thinking rates will rise.............sorry to spoil your nasty shots.




Its not odd to think that the yield has reached a point where the risk to reward doesn't favour more inflows in the same direction, especially carry trade type trades as the AUD takes it in the neck and capital is at risk. My point being that you are blind to why capital is flowing out of what has been a one way trade for some time because you have such a stake in it to keep going in said straight line.


----------



## Bintang (24 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Hello MrBurns, the market as a whole is retracing and consolidating, a very healthy sign. It is testing a long term support/resistance line at the moment. It may fail to hold to the line but it is still fine and all good, it may be looking for support from a rising support line. On my chart for TLS I put up a little while ago you may have noticed I drew in a period of retracement in order to form the 'handle' for the 'cup and handle' chart pattern. This may be the start of the handle and absolutely nothing to give you any concerns...very healthy, very good sign! Here is a link to the chart so you can see what is happening at the moment was totally foreseeable and desireable. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=770395&viewfull=1#post770395




Hope the handle is glued on strongly. They can break off sometimes you know - especially if the cup was too full.


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## McLovin (24 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> No it's seems odd that people are thinking rates will rise.............sorry to spoil your nasty shots.




It's not about rates it's about rate of return. TLS is a low growth company. At the moment on a grossed up basis it's yielding 8%. Granted there's a bit more visibility earnings wise than there was a few years ago but it's still not a growth stock and most of the return will remain in the dividend. An 8%-9% return seems about fair value.

Of course if rates go to Euro/US style levels then it will get further bid up but that's just punters chasing yield rather than any endorsement of the company.

Under $3 it had a great divvie and a bit of growth to give not a bad return, now it's really just the domain of those who have been flushed out of term deposits and want yield. I've pulled in about 65% capital growth + another 56c in dividends. That rate of return is hardly sustainable.


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## CanOz (24 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Hello MrBurns, the market as a whole is retracing and consolidating, a very healthy sign. It is testing a long term support/resistance line at the moment. It may fail to hold to the line but it is still fine and all good, it may be looking for support from a rising support line. On my chart for TLS I put up a little while ago you may have noticed I drew in a period of retracement in order to form the 'handle' for the 'cup and handle' chart pattern. This may be the start of the handle and absolutely nothing to give you any concerns...very healthy, very good sign! Here is a link to the chart so you can see what is happening at the moment was totally foreseeable and desireable. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=770395&viewfull=1#post770395




Its 50/50 Ann...but at least Burnsy can have an exit point...

CanOz


----------



## MARKETWINNER (24 May 2013)

_Today I saw following links on Telstra. It is time analyze this company again due to new development. 

http://www.theage.com.au/national/telstra-cuts-jobs-amid-bleak-outlook-20130522-2k1da.html

Telstra cuts jobs amid bleak outlook

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/motley/8663480/telstra-shares-hit-eight-year-high

Telstra-shares-hit-eight-year-high_


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## Ann (24 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> Hope the handle is glued on strongly. They can break off sometimes you know - especially if the cup was too full.




Many a true word spoken in jest Bintang! I have seen them fall off on many an occassion! 






CanOz said:


> Its 50/50 Ann...but at least Burnsy can have an exit point...
> 
> CanOz




So you are saying there is many a slip between the cup and the lip CanOz?:


----------



## MrBurns (25 May 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> My point being that you are blind to why capital is flowing out of what has been a one way trade for some time because you have such a stake in it to keep going in said straight line.




Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats I'm well in profit and wouldn't be selling anyway for tax reasons, but I was curious on the interest rate front.
You are way too presumptious about people's motives and circumstances.


----------



## herzy (25 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats I'm well in profit and wouldn't be selling anyway for tax reasons, but I was curious on the interest rate front.
> You are way too presumptious about people's motives and circumstances.




I would be extremely cautious of basing investment decisions on tax.


----------



## Porper (25 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Just thought I would throw in a chart showing a potential Cup and Handle pattern on TLS. The cup is complete, it needs a bit of a pullback to form the handle. Should it resolve into this chart shape, I did the swing trade calculations for it and can see $8.40 being the target price.
> 
> Let's see!




A Cup & Handle can often be mistaken for a Rounding Bottom. The main differences are that a Cup & Handle needs to form following a decent trend (30.0%) and has to form the handle. A rounding bottom forms at lows and doesn't have to from a handle although they generally do. Basically because the right edge of the pattern hits resistance.

Also, a Cup & Handle should only take 65 weeks max to form. The pattern here for TLS  started in 2007. Still, the basic shape is clear so if you have your own definition of the pattern it's not an issue.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats.




Just one point. You couldn't give a rats that the people that created the trend that you have road so nicely are possibly now doing the opposite.

Cool.


----------



## Country Lad (25 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> Hope the handle is glued on strongly. They can break off sometimes you know - especially if the cup was too full.




Oops, the glue just failed.






Ann, it may not have been a cup and handle which requires the 2 lips to be more around about the same price level. This may be a better example. 






Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Bintang (25 May 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Oops, the glue just failed.
> 
> View attachment 52395
> 
> ...




Amazing the difference of opinions here. CL I showed your lower chart to my wife and she said, "rubbish, can't you see it's a saucepan" and I showed Ann's original chart to my brother-in-law who agreed that it is a cup but he said, "I can't figure out from the scale of the chart whether it's a C-cup or a D-cup".


----------



## MrBurns (25 May 2013)

herzy said:


> I would be extremely cautious of basing investment decisions on tax.




I agree and never do normally, however in this case I only want the dividend...mainly.


----------



## MrBurns (25 May 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Just one point. You couldn't give a rats that the people that created the trend that you have road so nicely are possibly now doing the opposite.
> 
> Cool.




and plenty aren't..........for every share sold someone bought in..................cool.


----------



## Ves (25 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> and plenty aren't..........for every share sold someone bought in..................cool.



Burnsy.... a major sell off could be an opportunity for those looking to buy more.   Of course, your thesis for the long-term still has to be accurate.


----------



## McLovin (25 May 2013)

Ves said:


> Burnsy.... a major sell off could be an opportunity for those looking to buy more.   Of course, your thesis for the long-term still has to be accurate.




A company like TLS is like the Queen Mary, it takes a long time for the business to change courses. Arguably the last managers of the business were just not steering the ship properly. That's changed now, IMO, and the SP reflects that. But with a company like TLS, there's really no need to be second guessing every rise and fall in the SP.


----------



## Bintang (25 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I agree and never do normally, however in this case I only want the dividend...mainly.




Some people are traders hoping to make profits on the swings. Others like me and MrBurns invest for the dividends and the swings don't matter.  However if the price gets bid up too high there is a point at which I would sell. That's the point at which my net after tax proceeds give me sufficient extra capital that I can put the money in a safer, lower yielding investment and achieve the same or better total income that my current TLS shares give me. As it turns out, for me that price is around $8.40 so. There is a long way to go.


----------



## coolcup (25 May 2013)

It looks as though the share price rallied ahead of itself recently and the recent correction is just a healthy pullback towards its upward sloping trading range. If it can hold at these levels, it should be a positive for the stock.

The fundamental drivers have not changed - secure yield in a low yield environment, potential upside from renegotiation with government on NBN and a management team that seem to understand the need to give capital back to shareholders.


----------



## Bintang (25 May 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Oops, the glue just failed.
> 
> View attachment 52395
> 
> ...




I was musing on what my brother-in-law said about the scale of the charts and then I realised that your TLS chart has a much shorter time scale than the one originally posted by Ann. On the longer time scale it is definitely a cup. Anyway since it looks like the handle has just fallen off I said to my brother-in-law that the cup size is most likely a 'B' or a 'C' trying to do the job of a 'D' whereupon my wife got mad and hit me over the head with one of her saucepans.


----------



## Ann (25 May 2013)

Porper said:


> A Cup & Handle can often be mistaken for a Rounding Bottom. The main differences are that a Cup & Handle needs to form following a decent trend (30.0%) and has to form the handle. A rounding bottom forms at lows and doesn't have to from a handle although they generally do. Basically because the right edge of the pattern hits resistance.
> 
> Also, a Cup & Handle should only take 65 weeks max to form. The pattern here for TLS  started in 2007. Still, the basic shape is clear so if you have your own definition of the pattern it's not an issue.




Porper I am very familiar with C&H patterns, I have been charting for many, many years. The time scale you quote is a 'book' definition, in other words, one or two peoples' observations. I say with drawing charts it is the shape and not the time scale that is the crucial point. This I have proven to myself over and over to satisfy my own need for proof of chart shapes and outcomes. 

I don't hang onto charts I draw, I draw them constantly and then float them off into the ether. Recently I was googling for an historical chart for gold and right up there I found an ancient chart I drew for a C&H swing trade calculation and had put up on a US goldbugs forum years ago. Just for fun I decided to see how I went with my swing trade calculations.... The original chart was the blue one, please note the time frame! Then please note the outcome on the yellow chart. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544 The handle depth was too great because I was not concerned about drawing for a potential stop loss but merely a long term outcome for a swing trade. On TLS I drew for a potential stop loss level this time for the depth of the handle.

 So far TLS is travelling exactly as I would expect it to travel, textbook reaction to the pattern description at exactly the right moment.


----------



## Country Lad (25 May 2013)

Bintang said:


> .................then I realised that your TLS chart has a much shorter time scale than the one originally posted by Ann.




Actually, my bad, sorry Ann.  I was looking more at the immediate past and not as far back as Ann, whose chart I had not seen.  I generally don't pay that much attention to what happened 6 years ago, but as Ann has said, a forming C&H is still quite valid for that time frame.  That means of course it may take a little while for the handle to form and then to see a break from it.

Will be worthwhile watching out for it.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Ann (25 May 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Actually, my bad, sorry Ann.  I was looking more at the immediate past and not as far back as Ann, whose chart I had not seen.  I generally don't pay that much attention to what happened 6 years ago, but as Ann has said, a forming C&H is still quite valid for that time frame.  That means of course it may take a little while for the handle to form and then to see a break from it.
> 
> Will be worthwhile watching out for it.
> 
> ...




Actually Country Lad it is my bad, I really have to spell out the time scale of my charts in a clearer manner.


----------



## Porper (25 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Porper I am very familiar with C&H patterns, I have been charting for many, many years. The time scale you quote is a 'book' definition.




It is a tested book definition yes, but you have to have definitive rules for any pattern if it's to be of use. Once we start saying  "it looks like a Cup & Handle so it is" then pattern recognition is of little use I.M.O. Also it needs to be tested over a decent period of time. How successful is the pattern in regard to breakout rate?...Measured target?...Throwback etc. One example means nothing. Show 100 examples then we can start seeing how successful it is in reality.

It is the same for any pattern, Elliott Wave, Candlesticks or whatever your preferred method is.


----------



## Ann (26 May 2013)

Porper said:


> It is a tested book definition yes, but you have to have definitive rules for any pattern if it's to be of use. Once we start saying  "it looks like a Cup & Handle so it is" then pattern recognition is of little use I.M.O. Also it needs to be tested over a decent period of time. How successful is the pattern in regard to breakout rate?...Measured target?...Throwback etc. One example means nothing. Show 100 examples then we can start seeing how successful it is in reality.
> 
> It is the same for any pattern, Elliott Wave, Candlesticks or whatever your preferred method is.




Thomas Bulkowski clearly trades and charts to a time scale and for him the limit of 65 weeks for the evolution of a C&H is a truth/rule for his time scale.

The point I am making is not to limit the efficacy of a pattern to a particular time scale. Patterns don't grow old and doddery, patterns don't change their habits with age. Patterns are reliable regardless of the period of time they took to evolve. By their very nature a pattern is a pattern! 

Having said that, I am not making any guarantees TLS will resolve in such a pleasing manner as the 2006 example I gave. I only gave that example to show there is no time limit for a pattern to form and resolve.

Will TLS resolve the way I have drawn it? In truth I am optimistic but not sure! There is a greater external pattern power of influence over TLS pattern which is giving every indication of support for a positive outcome.

As Bintang so correctly observed, handles can fall off cups and from my own experience they certainly do sometimes. Let's see!


----------



## sptrawler (28 May 2013)

Ann said:


> Thomas Bulkowski clearly trades and charts to a time scale and for him the limit of 65 weeks for the evolution of a C&H is a truth/rule for his time scale.
> 
> The point I am making is not to limit the efficacy of a pattern to a particular time scale. Patterns don't grow old and doddery, patterns don't change their habits with age. Patterns are reliable regardless of the period of time they took to evolve. By their very nature a pattern is a pattern!
> 
> ...



That's a fantastic post to say little.


----------



## MrBurns (30 May 2013)

Must be almost time to start buying again ?


----------



## Ves (30 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Must be almost time to start buying again ?



I doubt I'd touch it over $4 personally.   Probably less.


----------



## MrBurns (30 May 2013)

Ves said:


> I doubt I'd touch it over $4 personally.   Probably less.




Wont be long at this rate


----------



## Ves (30 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Wont be long at this rate



I think it depends on how much the dollar falls and how much this hurts the overseas investors who get hit with the double whammy of share price decline + currency devaluation.


I wouldn't say no to any kind of pain like that.   It's been a slow year so far.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (4 June 2013)

It looks like some traders are jumping off the TLS bandwagon at the moment, with the asbestos in the pits issue brought to life in the last couple of days being the latest excuse.

I've held TLS shares since the T1 float but haven't really paid any attention to TLS (though I'm regretting not purchasing some when the Future Fund was selling out and talking down its prospects).  Might need to do some research on TLS in the next few days.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

McCoy Pauley said:


> It looks like some traders are jumping off the TLS bandwagon at the moment, with the asbestos in the pits issue brought to life in the last couple of days being the latest excuse.
> 
> I've held TLS shares since the T1 float but haven't really paid any attention to TLS (though I'm regretting not purchasing some when the Future Fund was selling out and talking down its prospects).  Might need to do some research on TLS in the next few days.




I just sold out yesterday, the asbestos scare, real or not is an issue and the exit of money from Australia generally.
I'll go back in when it settles down.


----------



## Bintang (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I just sold out yesterday, the asbestos scare, real or not is an issue and the exit of money from Australia generally.
> I'll go back in when it settles down.




The period from now until August is normally the 'seasonal' upswing in TLS as people start salivating over the next 14c dividend (next ex-divdidend date 19Aug13). It will be interesting to see how the opposing forces of this upswing, the asbestos negative sentiment and the exit of foreign money play out. I think the  price will bounce around close to its current level for a while and possibly go as low as 4.50. After that it should move back into the range 5.00 to 5.10 just prior to 19Aug. IMO.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

Bintang said:


> The period from now until August is normally the 'seasonal' upswing in TLS as people start salivating over the next 14c dividend (next ex-divdidend date 19Aug13). It will be interesting to see how the opposing forces of this upswing, the asbestos negative sentiment and the exit of foreign money play out. I think the  price will bounce around close to its current level for a while and possibly go as low as 4.50. After that it should move back into the range 5.00 to 5.10 just prior to 19Aug. IMO.




I'm already keen to get back in but just have a feeling there may be more bad news on the way.


----------



## sinner (4 June 2013)

This thread is hilarious. I recommend anyone who is even remotely bored to go back and check out Bintang and MrBurns posts in  chronological order, to see why the majority of investors underperform.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> This thread is hilarious. I recommend anyone who is even remotely bored to go back and check out Bintang and MrBurns posts in  chronological order, to see why the majority of investors underperform.




You must have a lot of spare time on your hands, the majority of investors under perform, as you put it, because they're just guessing same as you........except when you excel in hindsight.


----------



## sinner (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> You must have a lot of spare time on your hands, the majority of investors under perform, as you put it, because they're just guessing same as you........except when you excel in hindsight.




It took me 10 minutes in the low activity time of my day, to incredulously read your last few posts, and go back to check them against what you said previously just to make sure I wasn't imagining someone who could lie to themselves so blatantly. Another 5 minutes to record the dates of your posts and annotate them in a chart.

Hindsight not required to see this coming, some people tried to point out what you were doing prior to your "investment", and how it was a very bad idea. I've seen you do it before and I imagine it'll occur again.


----------



## McLovin (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> This thread is hilarious. I recommend anyone who is even remotely bored to go back and check out Bintang and MrBurns posts in  chronological order, to see why the majority of investors underperform.
> View attachment 52601




You owe me a keyboard. This one is covered in Coke.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> It took me 10 minutes in the low activity time of my day, to incredulously read your last few posts, and go back to check them against what you said previously just to make sure I wasn't imagining someone who could lie to themselves so blatantly. Another 5 minutes to record the dates of your posts and annotate them in a chart.
> 
> Hindsight not required to see this coming, some people tried to point out what you were doing prior to your "investment", and how it was a very bad idea. I've seen you do it before and I imagine it'll occur again.




Why don't you just watch your tongue, I don't like self righteous BS artists like you lurking around waiting to have a shot at someone , just get a life and stay away from my posts.



> some people tried to point out what you were doing prior to your "investment", and how it was a very bad idea



 ..........absolute crap

I'm still nicely in profit and better off for selling when I did, you on the other hand are just an annoying worm in an otherwise civil environment.



McLovin said:


> You owe me a keyboard. This one is covered in Coke.




Well I imagine it's usually covered in some other emission so that might help clean it up.


----------



## Julia (4 June 2013)

Sinner and McLovin, how would it be if you were to tell Mr Burns how he could better have managed this?


----------



## prawn_86 (4 June 2013)

To be fair I am not sure if Sinners chart includes any dividends received, but it is an example of how emotions can rule 'long term' investment decisions.

Let please focus on the stock at hand, and its trading etc, rather than abusing others.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Well I imagine it's usually covered in some other emission so that might help clean it up.




LOL! Errrrr


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> To be fair I am not sure if Sinners chart includes any dividends received, but it is an example of how emotions can rule 'long term' investment decisions.
> 
> Let please focus on the stock at hand, and its trading etc, rather than abusing others.




These keyboard hero's have no idea of what my objectives are and what drives my decisions.

They should just shut up instead of making fools of themselves by making stupid uninformed comments about others.


----------



## sinner (4 June 2013)

Julia said:


> Sinner and McLovin, how would it be if you were to tell Mr Burns how he could better have managed this?




Julia, I've seen MrBurns do this more than once since I joined ASF. After seeing prawn trying to point it out, and failing, I thought that this time I would just wait for the inevitable to happen and then post the result. There was a solid month of "fishing" from MrBurns before he finally decided to buy in near the current high.






> I'm still nicely in profit and better off for selling when I did,




If this above statement is true (no proof offered by MrBurns), then either I cannot read English, or MrBurns was lying on Apr24 when he said he purchased over $100,000 in TLS shares, and lying again when he said he sold at 5% below the closing price on April 24. He certainly wasn't being truthful with himself when he said he was only interested in the dividend and holding for the long term.


----------



## McLovin (4 June 2013)

Julia said:


> Sinner and McLovin, how would it be if you were to tell Mr Burns how he could better have managed this?




Well he's either an investor or a trader. As he's never posted a chart, and based on his comments in this thread about being in TLS for the long haul and has said it's about the dividends. It seems rather random to be in something long term, sell it one day and the next day say you're ready to get back in. It just seems to lack any sort of clarity of thought.

The best posters on here, whether they be TA or FA have a strategy.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> but it is an example of how emotions can rule 'long term' investment decisions.
> 
> .



I would have been happy to stay in there and just because I've been cautious and temporarily backed out doesn't mean the original objective isn't still my aim, the amount of cash involved in this was such that the risk of holding at this point was too great.

In any case I'll be sure not to post any further moves I make in here because some people just aren't worth informing and can only make immature smart **** "look how clever I am" comments after the fact.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> These keyboard hero's have no idea of what my objectives are and what drives my decisions.
> 
> They should just shut up instead of making fools of themselves by making stupid uninformed comments about others.




Yeah you are probably right. 

A week ago,



MrBurns said:


> Wrong again,* I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats I'm well in profit and wouldn't be selling anyway *for tax reasons, but I was curious on the interest rate front.
> You are way too presumptious about people's motives and circumstances.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I would have been happy to stay in there and just because I've been cautious and temporarily backed out doesn't mean the original objective isn't still my aim, the amount of cash involved in this was such that the risk of holding at this point was too great.
> 
> In any case I'll be sure not to post any further moves I make in here because some people just aren't worth informing and can only make immature smart **** "look how clever I am" comments after the fact.




Thats utter BS. That was what I said to you over a week ago and you told me to stick it as I was uniformed, then you followed up with one of the dumbest statements,



MrBurns said:


> for every share sold someone bought in..




You ask a question then hate the answer. No wonder people take pot shots at your stupidity.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah you are probably right.
> 
> A week ago,






> Wouldn't be selling anyway



.........................unless it slumped the way it did, you people are nit picking naval gazers.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> Julia, I've seen MrBurns do this more than once since I joined ASF. After seeing prawn trying to point it out, and failing, I thought that this time I would just wait for the inevitable to happen and then post the result. There was a solid month of "fishing" from MrBurns before he finally decided to buy in near the current high.




Once again you have to much time on your hands and are far more analytic of my posts than I am, the "inevitable" ? I've made enough to buy a small car so I'm not particularly concerned and the "inevitable" is fine with me.



> If this above statement is true (no proof offered by MrBurns), then either I cannot read English, or MrBurns was lying on Apr24 when he said he purchased over $100,000 in TLS shares, and lying again when he said he sold at 5% below the closing price on April 24. He certainly wasn't being truthful with himself when he said he was only interested in the dividend and holding for the long term.




Presumptuous BS once again, you're really showing your true colours here, my average buy price was well below what I sold for , don't call me a liar, you are a troll just provoking for sport I hope the moderators take note.


----------



## Bintang (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> This thread is hilarious. I recommend anyone who is even remotely bored to go back and check out Bintang and MrBurns posts in  chronological order, to see why the majority of investors underperform.




Sinner, I am so pleased to have kept you entertained.
I have a very large position in TLS which I acquired in the price range $2.55 to $3.20.  I created that position for the dividends it produces and it provides me with all the performance I need.
I will only consider selling any of my TLS if the price reaches ~$8.40 which as I said in a previous post is a long way to go.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats utter BS. That was what I said to you over a week ago and you told me to stick it as I was uniformed, then you followed up with one of the dumbest statements,
> 
> You ask a question then hate the answer. No wonder people take pot shots at your stupidity.




Share market pseudo intellectual looking down your nose at others, a sure sign of your own inadequacy.


----------



## sinner (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Presumptuous BS once again, you're really showing your true colours here, my average buy price was well below what I sold for , don't call me a liar, you are a troll just provoking for sport I hope the moderators take note.




So what you're saying is that the >$100,000 of TLS you purchased on Apr 24 was simply the last in a collection of parcels purchased in greater size at lower price? Yet the realised profit was only enough to buy a small car? OK then...


----------



## sinner (4 June 2013)

Bintang said:


> I will only consider selling any of my TLS if the price reaches ~$8.40 which as I said in a previous post is a long way to go.




Bintang, what I am curious about is how your price target almost doubled from $4.95 in late Feb to $8.40 this week, on the basis of investing in less risky assets like you said?


----------



## prawn_86 (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> ... my average buy price was well below what I sold for ...




According to this thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26668) your average buy price must have been about 4.8 (120k/25000 shares). There hasn't been a dividend between now and then, so unless you sold earlier than when you posted I don't see how you can have made a profit :dunno:


**Puts mod hat on** Any further name calling or abusive posts (from anyone) will be removed and infracted. Please lets stick to the facts at hand and TLS


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> So what you're saying is that the >$100,000 of TLS you purchased on Apr 24 was simply the last in a collection of parcels purchased in greater size at lower price? Yet the realised profit was only enough to buy a small car? OK then...




Ferraris are small.

If you took as much notice of your own affairs as you do others you might do ok.

Your preoccupation with others posts, noting them from way back looking for inconsistencies equates to stalking.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Share market pseudo intellectual looking down your nose at others, a sure sign of your own inadequacy.




Yep. I probably wasn't breast feed enough as a baby. Thats the only possible reason you don't like what I was pointing out to you a week ago.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> According to this thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26668) your average buy price must have been about 4.8 (120k/25000 shares). There hasn't been a dividend between now and then, so unless you sold earlier than when you posted I don't see how you can have made a profit :dunno:
> 
> 
> **Puts mod hat on** Any further name calling or abusive posts (from anyone) will be removed and infracted. Please lets stick to the facts at hand and TLS




Look prawn I made a decent profit if you would like me to send over my trading statements PM me your email address.

I'm not going into exactly how many I bought or when as obviously

1. it's no ones business and 
2. there are stalkers in here.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> According to this thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26668) your average buy price must have been about 4.8 (120k/25000 shares). There hasn't been a dividend between now and then, so unless you sold earlier than when you posted I don't see how you can have made a profit :dunno:




I had bought earlier................. substantially.

Sorry I didn't post the details


----------



## Joe Blow (4 June 2013)

Enough with the insults everyone, and back to discussing Telstra please.


----------



## Bintang (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> Bintang, what I am curious about is how your price target almost doubled from $4.95 in late Feb to $8.40 this week, on the basis of investing in less risky assets like you said?




Depends what you mean by price target? $4.95 is what I expected TLS might reach but I never said it was my target price for selling. (And I wasn't far off cause it got to $5.14 before starting its recent fall).  I mentioned another price (different 'target' if you like) of around $4.50 above which I would not be a buyer. My average cost basis for TLS holdings is $3.16 per share. I started accumulating in 2010 and have not sold any. After the next dividend payout this coming September I will have earned $345,800 in cumulative dividends since March 2011. (This doesn't feel like underperformance to me but maybe I am just too conservative.)

The $8.40 is a recently calculated 'theoretical price' at which I might be prepared to sell based on the net proceeds I would have in hand after paying capital gains tax and what the prevailing best available term deposit rate might be such that after tax I could earn from the net sale proceeds the same amount in interest annually as I currently receive in fully franked dividends. As the RBA continues to lower interest rate this theoretical target price increases.
I am not saying that I believe TLS will get to $8.40 but I was inspired to think and post about it after seeing Ann's 'Cup and Handle' Chart.


----------



## prawn_86 (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I had bought earlier................. substantially.
> 
> Sorry I didn't post the details




That's fine, you can see how I got confused. Seems a bit strange that you were still so indecisive to buy more after already holding a parcel but each to their own


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> That's fine, you can see how I got confused. Seems a bit strange that you were still so indecisive to buy more after already holding a parcel but each to their own




I wanted to go in deeper but was unsure, I did and lost a little on those but the earlier gains more than made up for it. Wasn't prepared to hold any longer because of asbestos and general funds leaving Australia......the decision to hold becomes very easy when you've been in there from historic lows.

Neighbours of mine bought WOW when they were $2, they don't care what the market does these days.


----------



## Trembling Hand (4 June 2013)

If anyone cares i reckon this week will be up based on a move back to highs. How far it gets will tell if we are now looking at lower highs rather than higher lows like we have had for some time.


----------



## dutchie (4 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> If anyone cares i reckon this week will be up based on a move back to highs. How far it gets will tell if we are now looking at lower highs rather than higher lows like we have had for some time.




Thanks TH

Got out of my shorts today so will look at going long. Should retrace 50% or so of last movement down if nothing else if your right.

Cheers

dutchie


----------



## Ves (4 June 2013)

sinner said:


> This thread is hilarious. I recommend anyone who is even remotely bored to go back and check out Bintang and MrBurns posts in  chronological order, to see why the majority of investors underperform.
> View attachment 52601



Post #1355 on 25 October 2012 is calling your chart a liar.



> If this above statement is true (no proof offered by MrBurns), then either I cannot read English, or MrBurns was lying on Apr24 when he said he purchased over $100,000 in TLS shares, and lying again when he said he sold at 5% below the closing price on April 24. He certainly wasn't being truthful with himself when he said he was only interested in the dividend and holding for the long term.



If you're going to spend 10 minutes bashing someone. At least do it properly?


----------



## waza1960 (4 June 2013)

Sh*t I'll have to visit stock threads more often didn't realise there was so much drama.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Post #1355 on 25 October 2012 is calling your chart a liar.
> 
> If you're going to spend 10 minutes bashing someone. At least do it properly?




Be careful every post you make is being logged and put aside for later abuse.


----------



## Ves (4 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Be careful every post you make is being logged and put aside for later abuse.



But only if it happened in the last two months.


----------



## MrBurns (4 June 2013)

Ves said:


> But only if it happened in the last two months.




If it happens to be convenient otherwise the time frame can be adjusted.


----------



## MrBurns (5 June 2013)

sinner said:


> This thread is hilarious. I recommend anyone who is even remotely bored to go back and check out Bintang and MrBurns posts in  chronological order, to see why the majority of investors underperform




You really are a goose, my entry into TLS was in late October last year, subsequent buys are a different story, so your incorrect assumption ridden voyeuristic graph means nothing as my comments related to the entire holding not the part you knew about........you should watch yourself, calling people liars over the net is a cowardly thing to do and reflects on you more than you think.


----------



## clinta44 (5 June 2013)

Perhaps everyone needs to take a deep breathe and chill the F out?


----------



## drsmith (5 June 2013)

Burnsie,

Is your intention with Telstra to be a short term trader or a long term investor ?


----------



## MrBurns (5 June 2013)

drsmith said:


> Burnsie,
> 
> Is your intention with Telstra to be a short term trader or a long term investor ?




I was thinking long term but when you come in at a high, it's a little unnerving when things start to look shaky on several fronts. I guess if I was confident all would be ok in the long term I'd just stay in there.
I'll go back in at some stage, maybe soon maybe not, I'm just concerned there may be a sudden and unexpected downturn, things just look a little fragile right now.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 June 2013)

Just noticed this thread today.  I do remember Burns buying a decent parcel a while back and it occurred to me that he might well have bought at the top.  (whether this is true or not is not the point of my post, and I'm not nearly interested enough in others' trading activities to chronicle their moves).

My point is that it is strange behaviour for a couple of ASF posters to attempt to humiliate him for this loss, without adding anything constructive.   What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?


----------



## Trembling Hand (5 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> without adding anything constructive.   What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?




that was tried but ignored and spat back at a long time ago. I guess all thats left is a "told ya so" when trying to offer an opinion thats taken as hostility.


----------



## MrBurns (5 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just noticed this thread today.  I do remember Burns buying a decent parcel a while back and it occurred to me that he might well have bought at the top.  (whether this is true or not is not the point of my post).
> 
> My point is that it is strange behaviour for a couple of ASF posters to attempt to humiliate him for this loss, without adding anything constructive.   What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?




It backfired as he was only referring to the second purchase and I agree with the rest of your post, I wont be posting any details in here in future.


----------



## MrBurns (5 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> that was tried but ignored and spat back at a long time ago. I guess all thats left is a "told ya so" when trying to offer an opinion thats taken as hostility.




That's BS, link please.


----------



## sinner (5 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> that was tried but ignored and spat back at a long time ago. I guess all thats left is a "told ya so" when trying to offer an opinion thats taken as hostility.




What I find interesting is that people take it as hostility, apparently despite Joe calling for maturity, I'm the coward out to bash and humiliate all round.


----------



## Bintang (5 June 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> My point is that it is strange behaviour for a couple of ASF posters to attempt to humiliate him for this loss, without adding anything constructive.   What does this achieve other than more bitterness on both sides?




I agree with you GB. Their post are just pollution of cyber-space. Best just to ignore them.


----------



## MrBurns (5 June 2013)

Bintang said:


> I agree with you GB. Their post are just pollution of cyber-space. Best just to ignore them.




I didn't lose in any case but it certainly was a vile and vindictive post as well as being incorrect.


----------



## Joe Blow (5 June 2013)

Folks, I want to make something very clear:

If you volunteer information about your holdings, or your buy/sell decisions, then you need to be ready to have others question them, or even criticise them, if they feel inclined to comment on it. Everything you post is up for discussion. If you do not wish for your holdings or buy/sell decisions to be discussed then please do not volunteer the information. It cannot be simpler than that. 

Conversely, if someone has not posted anything about their holdings or their buy/sell decisions then it is simply not up for discussion. Do not ask for details, do not make assumptions or accusations, and do not level any criticism. Just stick to discussing the stock and leave others out of it.

I want all this pointless bickering to stop now. Any post in this thread from this point forward that is not discussing TLS will be removed. Enough is enough. Back on topic please!


----------



## Ves (5 June 2013)

I'm fairly sure that the future estimated  (read:  guessimate) of JHX's asbestos liabilities is about $1.7 billion.  I believe they have paid about $1 billion before this.   There are estimates of costs of consultants ex. $30 million per year that TLS might need to handle this if it blows up.   Sounds like pocket change for an ASX20 company.

That's about the equivalent of a TLS half-yearly dividend payment ($0.14). A bit more pocket change for costs.  It looks like a bit of a storm in a teacup, and potentially an excuse for those in the media and institutions to keep screaming "sell TLS!"  We all know what happens when fear strikes, people sell, and someone is on the other end of the trade taking advantage.

That's the beauty of reliable free cash flow - it can be used to meet contingencies if and when they come up without weakening the capital structure.

What am I missing?

edit:  I think the recent sell-off has more to do with the AUD currency devaluation and foreign investors getting out than anything fundamental to the company itself.


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 June 2013)

Ves said:


> We all know what happens when fear strikes, people sell, and someone is on the other end of the trade taking advantage.




Its not necessary fear nor can you say the the person on other end of the trade is the one taking advantage. There is always someone on the other side of a trade. That's irrelevant. What matters should be protection of your own capital then as i pointed out to Burnsie a week ago the risks were changing and the people who were forced to pay ever higher prices to get in and therefore create a nice trend have stopped, at least temporarily, piling in.

Now anyone who wants out is being forced to accept lower and lower prices to have their demand met.


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2013)

Ves said:


> What am I missing?




Nothing that I can see. The asbestos thing has been way overblown imho. The presence of asbestos in pits is not a secret, and Telstra already pays out to former workers. There has been some sort of breakdown in the process of training and safety, probably because there are so many contractors working on this. If you've ever worked in a large corporate you know these things happen all the time. Usually they don't involve something as dangerous as asbestos though and Thodey needs to show ownership of this issue and cut it down before it grows into something big. Which is what he seems to be doing.



Ves said:


> I'm fairly sure that the future estimated (read: guessimate) of JHX's asbestos liabilities is about $1.7 billion. I believe they have paid about $1 billion before this.




I really doubt this will ever get to the level of the Hardie claims. If you make some high ball compo assumptions, that each person affected will receive $300k (the average Hardie claim is ~$200k), then that assumes 9,000 workers will contract a dust disease. A mighty feat when NBN Co only has 7,500 contractors in total. And the majority of those who go into the pits will not even be exposed to asbestos dust, unlike people who were exposed to asbestos through building products or mining/manufacturing asbestos related product.

The media will swirl around this until they find some new outrage on social media to focus their attention on.


----------



## prawn_86 (6 June 2013)

Have to agree with McLovin (as usual). It has been overblown by the media and the risk posed is minimal, to a tiny number of employees. I'm not saying that everything is fine, but I bet there are a lot more dangerous things going on in other workplaces that the media is not reporting


----------



## fiftyeight (6 June 2013)

I must be missing something in the chain of responsibility (possibly/probably wrong terminology) or something else completely?

If NBN and Telstra are aware of these issues and have procedures in place to deal with it appropriately, how can there be legal action at a later date because somebody did not follow company policy?

JH knew about the dangers but did not provide an adequate level of safety to employees. Telstra and NBN "appear" to be taking an adequate level of safety and protection. If individual contractors do not follow these guidelines are they not responsible?


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2013)

fiftyeight said:


> I must be missing something in the chain of responsibility (possibly/probably wrong terminology) or something else completely?
> 
> If NBN and Telstra are aware of these issues and have procedures in place to deal with it appropriately, how can there be legal action at a later date because somebody did not follow company policy?
> 
> JH knew about the dangers but did not provide an adequate level of safety to employees. Telstra and NBN "appear" to be taking an adequate level of safety and protection. If individual contractors do not follow these guidelines are they not responsible?




I'm not sure. I know Comcare have told the federal government that they may be liable (through NBN Co) but I don't know the interaction between TLS and NBN. Most of the media reports are also sufficiently vague which makes me think they don't know either.

Workers' Comp is no fault, iirc, so they will still be eligible for compensation regardless of whether they followed rules/procedures.


----------



## fiftyeight (6 June 2013)

Cheers McLovin, the current vagueness says a lot.

This is probably for a different thread, but

Can a worker for an "asbestos clean up company" claim for damages at a later date? I would think not or there would be none is business. Therefore if any company provides the same level of safety as an "asbestos clean up company" to a known asbestos threat how can they be liable?


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2013)

fiftyeight said:


> Cheers McLovin, the current vagueness says a lot.
> 
> This is probably for a different thread, but
> 
> Can a worker for an "asbestos clean up company" claim for damages at a later date? I would think not or there would be none is business. Therefore if any company provides the same level of safety as an "asbestos clean up company" to a known asbestos threat how can they be liable?




I would think they would be able to claim for damages. They have been injured at work, which is the primary criteria that needs to be met. It is probably a bit beyond this thread though.

You can even claim compo when you're on the job...

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...kers-compo-for-sex-injury-20121217-2biru.html


----------



## fiftyeight (6 June 2013)

Haha I remember reading that one. 

That blows my argument out of ... the water


----------



## Ves (6 June 2013)

McLovin said:


> Nothing that I can see. The asbestos thing has been way overblown imho. The presence of asbestos in pits is not a secret, and Telstra already pays out to former workers. There has been some sort of breakdown in the process of training and safety, probably because there are so many contractors working on this. If you've ever worked in a large corporate you know these things happen all the time. Usually they don't involve something as dangerous as asbestos though and Thodey needs to show ownership of this issue and cut it down before it grows into something big. Which is what he seems to be doing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thank you -  just to clarify I don't hold any TLS - and I was using JHX asbestos claim costs as the extreme end of the scale  (ie. even that won't hurt TLS long-term).   Good to see I'm not the only one who is thinking along these lines.  This sounds like one of those "media needs to attach a story to price movement" cases that you mentioned in the XAO thread.   It's a shame that some retail investors probably fell for it.


----------



## skc (6 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Thank you -  just to clarify I don't hold any TLS - and I was using JHX asbestos claim costs as the extreme end of the scale  (ie. even that won't hurt TLS long-term).   Good to see I'm not the only one who is thinking along these lines.  This sounds like one of those "media needs to attach a story to price movement" cases that you mentioned in the XAO thread.   It's a shame that some retail investors probably fell for it.




I am pretty sure that TLS isn't falling because of the asbestos news...


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

skc said:


> I am pretty sure that TLS isn't falling because of the asbestos news...




That's just part of it.


----------



## Ves (6 June 2013)

skc said:


> I am pretty sure that TLS isn't falling because of the asbestos news...



Yep, which I was I added that bit to my original post last night. 

I often get bored during the day at work and read some of the news blogs / forums.  I've seen a few times people saying that they have sold TLS because of the "articles on asbestos" and such.  Which is why I brought it up...  I figured it was either them or myself missing something since I disagreed with the fact that it was fundamentally important.


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Yep, which I was I added that bit to my original post last night.
> 
> I often get bored during the day at work and read some of the news blogs / forums.  I've seen a few times people saying that they have sold TLS because of the "articles on asbestos" and such.  Which is why I brought it up...  I figured it was either them or myself missing something since I disagreed with the fact that it was fundamentally important.




"Fundamentally important" isn't the issue it's perception that does the damage.


----------



## Julia (6 June 2013)

skc said:


> I am pretty sure that TLS isn't falling because of the asbestos news...



So could you outline what you think is behind the rapid fall at present?


----------



## Ves (6 June 2013)

Julia said:


> So could you outline what you think is behind the rapid fall at present?



As a holder what are your thoughts?  We don't hear from you much on the stock boards, Julia!


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## skc (6 June 2013)

Julia said:


> So could you outline what you think is behind the rapid fall at present?




It's the unwinding of the yield trade.

There's no asbestos in NAB, Westfield or APA gas pipelines!


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## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

skc said:


> It's the unwinding of the yield trade.
> 
> There's no asbestos in NAB, Westfield or APA gas pipelines!




Why would the yield trade unwind ?


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Why would the yield trade unwind ?




The dollar dude...


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## skc (6 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> The dollar dude...




Why would the dollar fall?

And I pre-ask why on the next 6 layers of explanations.

A bit like peeling an onion, isn't it?


----------



## MrBurns (6 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> The dollar dude...




So interest rates drop
The dollar drops 
So yield is no longer sought because ?


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## Muschu (6 June 2013)

Julia said:


> So could you outline what you think is behind the rapid fall at present?




Good question Julia and I don't have the answer.  But I'm not sure if reason,  rather than sentiment, explains the fall. We could equally ask the same question about the rapid uptrend that Telstra has enjoyed.

We sold a third of our TLS hold, amongst others, last week. However this stock, and other Telcos, have certainly supported our SMSF this past year.

No pretence here about understanding.  I can assure you of that.  

Best wishes

Rick


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## coolcup (6 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> So interest rates drop
> The dollar drops
> So yield is no longer sought because ?




My sense of it is that global investors piled into our market through the course of late 2012 / early 2013 chasing the larger liquid stocks with earnings certainty. These also happened to be the stocks that provided good yields (others went up too, like CSL Ramsay, etc). Basically anything with a degree of earnings certainty got pushed up.

Now, these offshore investors are benchmarked against global indices which are measured in US dollars. Their outperformance is measured every quarter (and bonuses are paid off the back of that, but don't go there). As long as these investors are "market weight" to Australia, they don't really care because the performance of the Aussie market (in A$ and US$) doesn't impact their outperformance / underperformance because they are tracking along at market weight. The problem was that with the amount of money they put to work in the last 6 months in Australia, coupled with the sharemarket rally the larger stocks had - this all meant they ended up overweight to Australian stocks. As the currency came off, this impacted their US dollar returns and Australia started to be a source of underperformance for their portfolio. They simply hit the sell button and left. There was not enough liquidity around to catch the sudden supply of stock. Most domestic managers are at the minimum level of cash allocation at present. When the offshore funds hit sell, they are usually only in the larger stocks and these have been smashed (including TLS).


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## sammy84 (7 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> So interest rates drop
> The dollar drops
> So yield is no longer sought because ?




Yield is still sought, just not as many will try achieve their returns through Telstra. Hence there will be less demand. 

Theoretically, more domestic money will move out of stocks and into property. 

Growth stocks which have been hampered by the historically high AUD should get more attention now. 

People will start positioning their investment for an interest rate rise and subsequent dollar appreciation in USD.

The AUD is no longer supported by higher relative interest rates and this depreciates the AUD- like what we're seeing now. What do you think that does to the value of TLS shares held by international investors?

Simple economic theory. The yield play has been on, and easier to spot given the presence of QE. But it always had to come to an end.

TLS might bounce from here, and the chart still looks healthy, but I'm fairly certain the trend has nearly run its course and we won't see prices much higher than $5.


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## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

coolcup said:


> My sense of it is that global investors piled into our market through the course of late 2012 / early 2013 chasing the larger liquid stocks with earnings certainty. These also happened to be the stocks that provided good yields (others went up too, like CSL Ramsay, etc). Basically anything with a degree of earnings certainty got pushed up.
> 
> .






sammy84 said:


> Yield is still sought, just not as many will try achieve their returns through Telstra. Hence there will be less demand.
> 
> Theoretically, more domestic money will move out of stocks and into property.
> 
> ...




Thanks very much to both of you for going to the trouble of answering my query.
So it seems the fall is mostly because of off shore money, I didn't realise the market was propped up so much by external funds.
TLS now represents good value for those in AU if the price doesn't fall too much further resulting in loss of capital.


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## Knobby22 (7 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks very much to both of you for going to the trouble of answering my query.
> So it seems the fall is mostly because of off shore money, I didn't realise the market was propped up so much by external funds.
> TLS now represents good value for those in AU if the price doesn't fall too much further resulting in loss of capital.




True, but the dollar fall continuing is a real risk so I would like to see a yield of 7% before I buy any more.

If you are investing as a retiree then its pretty good value as an alternative to fixed interest, especially if the RBA lowers interest rates next month which the market says is a 50% chance. 

I reckon anyone thinking of buying should wait a couple of weeks before plunging in.  You might get them for $4.30 or ideally $4.00 with a 7% yield. At $4.00 you can relax and not worry about the price.


----------



## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> True, but the dollar fall continuing is a real risk so I would like to see a yield of 7% before I buy any more.
> 
> If you are investing as a retiree then its pretty good value as an alternative to fixed interest, especially if the RBA lowers interest rates next month which the market says is a 50% chance.
> 
> I reckon anyone thinking of buying should wait a couple of weeks before plunging in.  You might get them for $4.30 or ideally $4.00 with a 7% yield. At $4.00 you can relax and not worry about the price.




At $4 I'm in, but so will everyone else


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## Julia (7 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Thanks very much to both of you for going to the trouble of answering my query.
> So it seems the fall is mostly because of off shore money, I didn't realise the market was propped up so much by external funds.



+1.  Such a contrast to the cryptic minimal answers from the clever people.


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## Ves (7 June 2013)

Julia said:


> +1.  Such a contrast to the cryptic minimal answers from the clever people.



Why the snide comment?   I thought most of the replies were helpful.


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## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Why the snide comment?   I thought most of the replies were helpful.




Julia was referring to other comments made by others recently in direct contrast to these excellent posts.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2013)

Julia said:


> +1.  Such a contrast to the cryptic minimal answers from the clever people.




Unfortunately some are so blind that even when trying to explain something as its unfolding they cannot see their own nose let alone an up coming disaster. You are left trying to prompt sensible consideration and in return end up have to do this.


----------



## MrBurns (7 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Unfortunately some are so blind that even when trying to explain something as its unfolding they cannot see their own nose let alone an up coming disaster. You are left trying to prompt sensible consideration and in return end up have to do this.




Well there's an example above of how to talk to people then again the web does distort things , while you're being as nice as pie it might come across as something else.............move on


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## qldfrog (7 June 2013)

coolcup said:


> My sense of it is that global investors piled into our market through the course of late 2012 / early 2013 chasing the larger liquid stocks with earnings certainty. These also happened to be the stocks that provided good yields (others went up too, like CSL Ramsay, etc). Basically anything with a degree of earnings certainty got pushed up.
> 
> Now, these offshore investors are benchmarked against global indices which are measured in US dollars. Their outperformance is measured every quarter (and bonuses are paid off the back of that, but don't go there). As long as these investors are "market weight" to Australia, they don't really care because the performance of the Aussie market (in A$ and US$) doesn't impact their outperformance / underperformance because they are tracking along at market weight. The problem was that with the amount of money they put to work in the last 6 months in Australia, coupled with the sharemarket rally the larger stocks had - this all meant they ended up overweight to Australian stocks. As the currency came off, this impacted their US dollar returns and Australia started to be a source of underperformance for their portfolio. They simply hit the sell button and left. There was not enough liquidity around to catch the sudden supply of stock. Most domestic managers are at the minimum level of cash allocation at present. When the offshore funds hit sell, they are usually only in the larger stocks and these have been smashed (including TLS).



+1 this is my understanding of the situation, foeign investment (ie 50% of asx if I remember we00) leaves to avoid the effect of AUD collapse, share fall, more leaving, we are on a slide....
mostly affcet ASX20 but contagious so...


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## Bintang (7 June 2013)

qldfrog said:


> +1 this is my understanding of the situation, foeign investment (ie 50% of asx if I remember we00) leaves to avoid the effect of AUD collapse, share fall, more leaving, we are on a slide....
> mostly affcet ASX20 but contagious so...




I think there is still a Government imposed  limit on the aggregate foreign ownership of Telstra - either 30% or 35%
Not sure how this is enforced and I don't know how the average investor has any way of knowing what the level is at any particular time. (If anyone knows the answers to this I would love to hear about it.)

Anyway if the average foreign ownership on the ASX is 50% and if I am correct about there being a limit on TLS one might surmise that the impact on Telstra of  foreign capital fleeing from Australia should be less than the market average.
I've seen stated that some ASX resource stocks have as much as 70% foreign ownership. Again it would be nice if the average punter could get access to data like this for individual companies. Does anyone here know where to find it outside of a professional broking service?


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

Bintang said:


> I think there is still a Government imposed  limit on the aggregate foreign ownership of Telstra - either 30% or 35%
> Not sure how this is enforced and I don't know how the average investor has any way of knowing what the level is at any particular time. (If anyone knows the answers to this I would love to hear about it.)



Have a look at this.

Section 8.1 in particular.

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttels.../foreignownershipregulations-november2006.pdf

Is this what you are looking for?


----------



## Bintang (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Have a look at this.
> 
> Section 8.1 in particular.
> 
> ...




Thanks.
Confirms there is a 35% limit - assuming the regulations are still current? (I notice it dates from 2006)


----------



## McLovin (7 June 2013)

Bintang said:


> I think there is still a Government imposed  limit on the aggregate foreign ownership of Telstra - either 30% or 35%
> Not sure how this is enforced and I don't know how the average investor has any way of knowing what the level is at any particular time. (If anyone knows the answers to this I would love to hear about it.)




Here you go...Straight off their website.



> Telstra estimates that as at 31 May 2013, the number of Telstra shares recorded as foreign on the Telstra register was 22.97 percent of the total number of issued Telstra shares.




http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/my-shareholding/faqs/index.htm?faqid=61

The wording in the The Telstra Corporation Act I read as being a group (ie related parties acting together) of foreigners cannot control more than 35%, rather than an upper limit of all foreign ownership being 35%.



> For the purposes of this Act, an unacceptable foreign-ownership situation exists in relation to Telstra if:
> 
> (a)  there is a group of foreign persons who hold, in total, a particular type of stake in Telstra of more than 35%; or
> 
> (b)  there is or are one or more foreign persons each of whom holds a particular type of stake in Telstra of more than 5%.




However the TLS website says my interpretation is wrong. In which case the use of the word "group" in (a) is redundant.



> That is, foreign persons collectively cannot control more that 35 per cent of the non-Commonwealth owned Telstra shares


----------



## Bintang (7 June 2013)

McLovin said:


> Here you go...Straight off their website.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Thanks. You found all of that amazingly quickly.


----------



## Bintang (7 June 2013)

I'm quite surprised by the foreign ownership level of 23%. Assumed it would be up close to the limit.
Anyway it also suggests to me that TLS should see a relatively smaller impact from fleeing foreign capital than say for example resource stocks.


----------



## Julia (7 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Why the snide comment?   I thought most of the replies were helpful.




From Mr Burns:  







> Why would the yield trade unwind ?




From Canoz:  







> The dollar dude...






skc said:


> Why would the dollar fall?
> And I pre-ask why on the next 6 layers of explanations.
> 
> A bit like peeling an onion, isn't it?



It was not a snide question, rather an appreciation of people (Coolcup and Sammy, plus Knobby) who took the trouble to actually answer Mr Burns' original question.

People don't set out to look foolish by asking questions that they don't actually want an answer to.  Neither do they enjoy the answers that I described as cryptic, seemingly designed not to inform but rather to make the respondent look superior.

This sort of stuff happens all the time.  Mostly we don't comment on it.  But it seems a pity to me that people come to forums in good faith, being prepared to ask about what they don't understand, and are belittled in response.  Perhaps that's just the nature of a stock forum.  I don't know.  It just seems to me that it's a phenomenon which is increasing lately and will definitely deter people from asking questions.




coolcup said:


> My sense of it is that global investors piled into our market through the course of late 2012 / early 2013 chasing the larger liquid stocks with earnings certainty. These also happened to be the stocks that provided good yields (others went up too, like CSL Ramsay, etc). Basically anything with a degree of earnings certainty got pushed up.
> 
> Now, these offshore investors are benchmarked against global indices which are measured in US dollars. Their outperformance is measured every quarter (and bonuses are paid off the back of that, but don't go there). As long as these investors are "market weight" to Australia, they don't really care because the performance of the Aussie market (in A$ and US$) doesn't impact their outperformance / underperformance because they are tracking along at market weight. The problem was that with the amount of money they put to work in the last 6 months in Australia, coupled with the sharemarket rally the larger stocks had - this all meant they ended up overweight to Australian stocks. As the currency came off, this impacted their US dollar returns and Australia started to be a source of underperformance for their portfolio. They simply hit the sell button and left. There was not enough liquidity around to catch the sudden supply of stock. Most domestic managers are at the minimum level of cash allocation at present. When the offshore funds hit sell, they are usually only in the larger stocks and these have been smashed (including TLS).






sammy84 said:


> Yield is still sought, just not as many will try achieve their returns through Telstra. Hence there will be less demand.
> 
> Theoretically, more domestic money will move out of stocks and into property.
> 
> ...




See the difference, V?  A clear explanation for which Mr Burns expressed his appreciation.  I, and perhaps Rick, also had our understanding improved.



Trembling Hand said:


> Unfortunately some are so blind that even when trying to explain something as its unfolding they cannot see their own nose let alone an up coming disaster. You are left trying to prompt sensible consideration and in return end up have to do this.



Really?  We all come with diverse backgrounds and experience.  Some may have made money others can only imagine via property development and investment, for example, yet have minimal experience of global markets, currency etc.  You may have extraordinary expertise in trading, I don't know.  But I'm just puzzled as to why you and others are so impatient with people who are quite clearly asking for help in understanding.

Maybe if it's so irritating, just don't comment at all, rather than feel obliged to decry others' lack of understanding at a level you approve of.

I don't mean to be antagonistic or inflammatory toward anyone.  I just don't understand why there is this apparent need to embarrass others.  Sorry if I've expressed it poorly, and apologies also for - in answering Ves's question - I've further contributed to the thread going somewhat off track.


----------



## Trembling Hand (7 June 2013)

Julia said:


> Really?




Well look at this from me trying to explain what was happening on the 25th 




Trembling Hand said:


> Its not odd to think that the yield has reached a point where the risk to reward doesn't favour more inflows in the same direction, especially carry trade type trades as the AUD takes it in the neck and capital is at risk. My point being that you are blind to why capital is flowing out of what has been a one way trade for some time because you have such a stake in it to keep going in said straight line.



Could I be any more clearer and concise?

To get this,


MrBurns said:


> Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats I'm well in profit and wouldn't be selling anyway for tax reasons, but I was curious on the interest rate front.
> You are way too presumptious about people's motives and circumstances.




to then try this,



Trembling Hand said:


> Just one point. You couldn't give a rats that the people that created the trend that you have road so nicely are possibly now doing the opposite.
> 
> Cool.




Bottom line is I'll leave you all to it. It seems you guys want eternal patience and good grace while kicking the **** out of any frustration that build from telling fools the obvious.

So in an attempt to not scare away any more newbies I'll leave this place to the wiser.


----------



## Ves (7 June 2013)

Julia said:


> See the difference, V?



Julia, I do see where you are coming from... but as soon as skc said "yield trade unwinding"  I just googled it and found the answer myself.   

It's really hard having the knowledge sometimes, we often assume that other's share that knowledge and that a few words, or a finger in the right direction is good enough.   I do it all the time,  I accidently forget that other's may not know what all the terminology stands for on the same level as myself.

I think it was a bit harsh that you called the responses cryptic.  Perhaps it is just the wording, your point was probably justified.


----------



## Bintang (7 June 2013)

Julia said:


> We all come with diverse backgrounds and experience.  Some may have made money others can only imagine via property development and investment, for example, yet have minimal experience of global markets, currency etc.  You may have extraordinary expertise in trading, I don't know.  But I'm just puzzled as to why you and others are so impatient with people who are quite clearly asking for help in understanding.
> 
> Maybe if it's so irritating, just don't comment at all, rather than feel obliged to decry others' lack of understanding at a level you approve of.
> 
> I don't mean to be antagonistic or inflammatory toward anyone.  I just don't understand why there is this apparent need to embarrass others.  Sorry if I've expressed it poorly, and apologies also for - in answering Ves's question - I've further contributed to the thread going somewhat off track.




Julia, I agree with you wholeheartedly.
Its also disappointing when good discussion gets hijacked by these petty diversions and anyone trying to learn or share something misses out.


----------



## MrBurns (8 June 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Well look at this from me trying to explain what was happening on the 25th
> 
> 
> Could I be any more clearer and concise?
> ...




Your comment was condescending hence my reply, also my comment that I was holding pertained to the situation at that time, when it started to fall and continued to do so I bailed just in case there was a sudden and unexpected fall.......I had quite a lot in there, now I've had enough of this, moving on..........


----------



## coolcup (8 June 2013)

Bintang said:


> I'm quite surprised by the foreign ownership level of 23%. Assumed it would be up close to the limit.
> Anyway it also suggests to me that TLS should see a relatively smaller impact from fleeing foreign capital than say for example resource stocks.




This is a logical conclusion. However, trading activity is more dependent on the composition of the activity during the day rather than the % of the register. If foreign ownership is only 23%, I would bet this is a fairly overweight position to TLS from global investors in the context of global allocations. Let's say 10% overweight (not based on any science, just illustrative). If they wanted to move to a market weight position, then that 10% of the stock is suddenly available for sale. It then depends on how liquid the stock is (ie how much of it trades every day / week / month) to determine whether the general trading activity can handle such a large influx of stock. My view is that in the short term it could not which is what has driven the prices down. Just like over the past 6 months when the offshore money was flooding in, the daily volume could not provide enough supply which drove prices up.


----------



## coolcup (8 June 2013)

Julia said:


> rather an appreciation of people (Coolcup and Sammy, plus Knobby) who took the trouble to actually answer Mr Burns' original question.




Thank you Julia!


----------



## Julia (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Julia, I do see where you are coming from... but as soon as skc said "yield trade unwinding"  I just googled it and found the answer myself.



Sure.  Probably my first option also with stuff I want to find out about.  But I suppose a stock forum seems a reasonable source of information.



> I think it was a bit harsh that you called the responses cryptic.  Perhaps it is just the wording, your point was probably justified.





> cryp·tic
> /ˈkriptik/
> Adjective
> 
> Having a meaning that is mysterious or obscure.




Not sure how 'cryptic' is harsh.  If someone just says "the dollar, dude", as an example, seems pretty cryptic to me.

Anyway perhaps I'm being unreasonable.  Forums are not designed as nurseries, and I take TH's point in this respect.

Back to TLS:  Being still essentially in cash, I decided to do a small experiment with a purely yield intent.
My main priority has always been capital preservation and I've always disagreed with those who have said "don't worry about what's happening with your capital if your aim was the grossed up yield"
Fairly obviously in a significant downturn your yield isn't going to go anywhere near making up for the capital loss, even if this is unrealised.

So, taking only about 2% of available investable capital, this went into TLS and NAB.
Usually I'd have been out of both several days ago, but sticking with the 'plan' I've resisted the compulsion to exit.
It doesn't worry me with such a relatively small amount, but I'm more than ever convinced that this is for me absolutely not a viable approach with bigger amounts.  I'm really uncomfortable with the diminution of my capital and don't know how others routinely take this approach.


----------



## McLovin (8 June 2013)

Julia said:


> Sure.  Probably my first option also with stuff I want to find out about.  But I suppose a stock forum seems a reasonable source of information.




I agree, but I think the point of this forum is on assisted self-educating rather than just asking other posters for their opinion. Afterall, if you have no idea what you're doing and don't really have any interest in trying to apply some sort of strategy, the safer option is either bank deposits/index funds/something else that requires minimal input.


----------



## Ves (8 June 2013)

Julia said:


> Not sure how 'cryptic' is harsh.  If someone just says "the dollar, dude", as an example, seems pretty cryptic to me.



No, that isn't a cryptic response.   It just shows that Burnsy  (and probably yourself as you didn't answer the original question either) don't understand the correlation between the dollar, foreign investors and the effect on share prices on the ASX.  This concept is not mysterious or obscure at all.   Lots of things may seem cryptic if you do not have the knowledge base to understand them.

The catch 22 of forums:   someone replies and doesn't understand and takes offense but if someone does not reply someone else cries foul that no one helps.

Take a step back, apart from the silly stuff over Mr Burns and the argument over his trade (whether it was a loss or not) there has been absolutely nothing wrong with the participation in this thread.   It is rare to see a "blup chip" on this forum with so much quality input from a wide range of posters.

People like TH will stop contributing if you keep complaining about minor things like this.


----------



## CanOz (8 June 2013)

Wow, i just caught up with this thread today...i had no idea my short comment caused such a stir...my apologies. I was actually in the middle of something when i popped that answer in there to Burnsy, thinking he would understand my hint was to alert him to the AUD unwind...Didn't mean to cause any issues or come across as cryptic, i just wanted to answer him and only had a second or two. I guess i should have let someone else answer that had the time to explain properly..

Now i realize why Burnsy thanked me for explaining something clearer on another thread, i thought that was kind of strange at the time.


Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> correlation between the dollar, foreign investors and the effect on share prices on the ASX.




Actually this was the only reason i was even interested in the thread as comments from Prop Traders regarding carry trades interest me greatly as there is allot for me to learn in this area...in fact i was only able to respond to Burnsy from what i had learned a few posts back from TH's comment. It had not occurred to me that unwinding of foreign positions in Telstra after the dollar collapsed was the cause of the drop in the price....

CanOz


----------



## Ves (8 June 2013)

CanOz said:


> Now i realize why Burnsy thanked me for explaining something clearer on another thread, i thought that was kind of strange at the time.



So I wasn't the only one who noticed?


----------



## CanOz (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> So I wasn't the only one who noticed?




lol....ahhh forums...


----------



## Julia (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> No, that isn't a cryptic response.   It just shows that Burnsy  (and probably yourself as you didn't answer the original question either)



Perhaps appreciate that just because you decide to ask a question of someone, they are not obligated to respond.  I ask questions all the time and don't get any replies.  Some of your questions come across as intrusive and some as baiting.  As a result, and since you called me a troll,  I quite often have you on Ignore so don't even see your questions.



> don't understand the correlation between the dollar, foreign investors and the effect on share prices on the ASX.  This concept is not mysterious or obscure at all.   Lots of things may seem cryptic if you do not have the knowledge base to understand them.



Well duh!!!  Why do you think people ask the questions, fergawdsake!  Because they don't know and are seeking answers.  If they already had the damn knowledge base, they wouldn't be asking would they???
Sometimes, V, you can be either obtuse or obstructive, difficult to know which.



> The catch 22 of forums:   someone replies and doesn't understand and takes offense but if someone does not reply someone else cries foul that no one helps.



No catch 22 at all.  Coolcup and Sammy both managed to read Mr Burns' question and respond in a way that provided him (and others of us also) with greater understanding.  Due appreciation  has been accorded them as a result.  



> People like TH will stop contributing if you keep complaining about minor things like this.



So???
I understand that TH is only interested in communicating with those whom he feels are his equal in terms of skill and understanding of trading.  That's absolutely his right and I completely respect that.

Might be good to make up your mind, Ves.  Earlier you agreed that I had made some valid points.
Now, typically, you swing in the other direction and accuse me of fussing about "minor things".




CanOz said:


> Wow, i just caught up with this thread today...i had no idea my short comment caused such a stir...my apologies. I was actually in the middle of something when i popped that answer in there to Burnsy, thinking he would understand my hint was to alert him to the AUD unwind...Didn't mean to cause any issues or come across as cryptic, i just wanted to answer him and only had a second or two. I guess i should have let someone else answer that had the time to explain properly..
> 
> Now i realize why Burnsy thanked me for explaining something clearer on another thread, i thought that was kind of strange at the time.
> Cheers,
> CanOz



Hello CanOZ, many thanks for above post.  That cryptic remark (and yes I mean cryptic, Ves) seemed entirely out of character from you, hence my remarking on it.  
Really appreciate your clarification.


----------



## skc (8 June 2013)

Julia said:


> It was not a snide question, rather an appreciation of people (Coolcup and Sammy, plus Knobby) who took the trouble to actually answer Mr Burns' original question.




Am I right in interpreting that you put my posts in the "crypyic" category?!

I told Burns that asbestos, like McLovin was pointing out, is not what's causing the share price fall.

I put together a chart to show him how the yield trade is unwinding all over the market.

I also responded to CanOz's short post on the dollar to prompt him to post further to explain about the dollar.

In the mean time, Mr Burns could use all these information to research further answers. 

No I didn't write a comprehensive respond to the qeustion with hyperlink to every terms and jargons used. But surely my posts are at least considered helpful to someone looking for answers!


----------



## Ves (8 June 2013)

Hi Julia

I have decided that this is going no where and respectfully choose not to reply.  We have wasted enough time and are only going around in circles.

I am seriously re-considering my time on this forum as it appears that I spend too much time either defending myself or squabbling with others to the detriment of any constructive input I may have.

There is a certain group of posters that Burnsy and you are a part of that seems to jump to each other's defence at the drop of a hat and I find it quite intimidating.


----------



## MrBurns (8 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Hi Julia
> 
> There is a certain group of posters that Burnsy and you are a part of that seems to jump to each other's defence at the drop of a hat and I find it quite intimidating.




No one jumps to anyone's defence without reason...........but I think we call a halt to this now and start afresh...this gets us nowhere but perhaps we have cleared the air a little.


----------



## skc (8 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> No one jumps to anyone's defence without reason...........but I think we call a halt to this now and start afresh...this gets us nowhere but perhaps we have cleared the air a little.




Last one...

MrBurns can you tell me if my chart illustrating the unwinding of yield trade (and hence showing asbestos wasn't the cause of TLS's fall) was helpful and prompted you to think further, or was it cryptic?

Just looking for an honest opinion to improve my communication skills. Thanks.


----------



## MrBurns (8 June 2013)

skc said:


> Last one...
> 
> MrBurns can you tell me if my chart illustrating the unwinding of yield trade (and hence showing asbestos wasn't the cause of TLS's fall) was helpful and prompted you to think further, or was it cryptic?
> 
> Just looking for an honest opinion to improve my communication skills. Thanks.




It's a total waste on me I never have looked at any chart, they send me to sleep, all I want is the conclusion spelled out in plain English............if that's possible.

I really should apply myself more to all this but alas it holds no real appeal to me, all I want is the short story like many others.


----------



## RottenValue (9 June 2013)

The short story is that Telstra is a business that has *ZERO *growth in Earnings Per Share since 2000 (having gone from 31.4 cents to 31.5 cents).  During that time, EPS has ranged from 25.7 cents to 35.2 cents, spectacularly unimpressive given its dominant market share. 

Therefore, the only possible reason to invest in it is to get the highly prized 28 cents dividend per year (which hasn't changed for a long time).  In a rational market, the Share Price for Telstra will increase as interest rates decrease as long as confidence in the dividend payout holds.  For overseas investors, a falling Australian dollar is a problem as the yield evaporates with currency losses so they will want to get out causing share price to fall.

My view, Telstra made some sense as a holding pen for some money when the price was $3 as returned about 10%.  At $5, the risk of capital loss (when interest rates rise or australian dollar falls) far outweighs the 6% yield.

Admit to no longer being able to avoid TLS at $2.90 a while ago but also that was happy to get out at $3.90 as soon as I found better things to do with my money.


----------



## MrBurns (9 June 2013)

RottenValue said:


> The short story is that Telstra is a business that has *ZERO *growth in Earnings Per Share since 2000 (having gone from 31.4 cents to 31.5 cents).  During that time, EPS has ranged from 25.7 cents to 35.2 cents, spectacularly unimpressive given its dominant market share.
> 
> Therefore, the only possible reason to invest in it is to get the highly prized 28 cents dividend per year (which hasn't changed for a long time).  In a rational market, the Share Price for Telstra will increase as interest rates decrease as long as confidence in the dividend payout holds.  For overseas investors, a falling Australian dollar is a problem as the yield evaporates with currency losses so they will want to get out causing share price to fall.
> 
> ...




Well that makes sense thanks for your insight.


----------



## CanOz (9 June 2013)

Didn't someone else make the point in this thread that there are a heap of Australian "Blue Chips" that have the done the same thing? They were basically milked for yield and then dumped when the dollar tanked...?

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (9 June 2013)

skc said:


> It's the unwinding of the yield trade.
> 
> There's no asbestos in NAB, Westfield or APA gas pipelines!
> 
> View attachment 52677




Yup....

Same story here as SKC mentioned....


----------



## Julia (9 June 2013)

skc said:


> Am I right in interpreting that you put my posts in the "crypyic" category?!
> 
> I told Burns that asbestos, like McLovin was pointing out, is not what's causing the share price fall.
> 
> ...



skc, I always find your posts knowledgeable and worth reading.  The chart, for me, was illuminating as I'd not been paying attention across the market, being still almost entirely in cash, and - as you suggested - it demonstrated that the dreaded asbestos is not the problem.  I thank you for that insight and your trouble in posting the chart.

Look, folks, I realise it's irritating to read questions that you think people should, for heaven's sake, know the answer to and difficult not to express that irritation in response.  All I've been trying to say is that people don't set out to look stupid by asking questions when they actually know the answers already.

Yes, they could google the question, and I expect many do, but others will think 'this is a stock forum, and therefore where someone won't mind explaining something to me'.

I suppose, too, it's difficult to know how our remarks are going to be received.  No tone of voice in a typed message to help.  I remember some long time ago, as an enthusiastic gardener, being happy to offer answers to someone's questions about what would grow where.  Later that person described the response as patronising, so there you go.

Dunno really.  Perhaps some of us just have unrealistic expectations.


----------



## coolcup (9 June 2013)

I know I am new here, but can I suggest that the moderators in this forum delete all the back and forth posts in recent days (including this one) which I felt went beyond healthy debate about a stock? The reasons for this are as follows:

1. The debate that has been going on has not really had a lot to do with TLS and more to do with personalities and communication skills

2. TLS is a very popular stock with retail investors and many new forum readers will come to this thread to read about it, particularly given recent price weakness has meant the yield looks more and more attractive. If they see the type of back and forth going on in this thread they will think that either (a) this forum is more about arguing between people rather than debate around a stock's outlook or (b) it is too scary to join and ask questions because they me find themselves in the kind of argument that has been occurring.

If this all happened in some microcap thread, I don't think it is an issue, but given the popularity of TLS I would hate to think new readers of this forum would be turned off given the back and forth banter which has carried over across several pages now.

Just my thoughts for consideration.


----------



## MrBurns (9 June 2013)

coolcup said:


> I know I am new here, but can I suggest that the moderators in this forum delete all the back and forth posts in recent days (including this one) which I felt went beyond healthy debate about a stock? The reasons for this are as follows:
> 
> 1. The debate that has been going on has not really had a lot to do with TLS and more to do with personalities and communication skills
> 
> ...




I think you're right all the argumentative posts serve no purpose and the thread would be more useful if they were culled.


----------



## Julia (9 June 2013)

MrBurns said:


> It's a total waste on me I never have looked at any chart, they send me to sleep, all I want is the conclusion spelled out in plain English............if that's possible.



If you had looked at it, even briefly, you'd see skc's point, i.e. that downturn has occurred in major high yield stocks across different sectors, thus dispelling the thought that asbestos is the cause of the SP fall.
Maybe understand, Burnsie, that it's a bit disheartening for people to put up a chart which at a glance demonstrates the point when you dismiss it without consideration.  You don't have to develop a whole lot of technical expertise to find a basic understanding of charts hugely helpful in stock selection, buy and sell points.
Have a look at skc's chart now, perhaps, and you will see what he is illustrating.


skc said:


> It's the unwinding of the yield trade.
> 
> There's no asbestos in NAB, Westfield or APA gas pipelines!
> 
> View attachment 52677







coolcup said:


> I know I am new here, but can I suggest that the moderators in this forum delete all the back and forth posts in recent days (including this one) which I felt went beyond healthy debate about a stock? The reasons for this are as follows:



Agree, coolcup.


----------



## MrBurns (9 June 2013)

Julia said:


> If you had looked at it, even briefly, you'd see skc's point, i.e. that downturn has occurred in major high yield stocks across different sectors, thus dispelling the thought that asbestos is the cause of the SP fall.
> Maybe understand, Burnsie, that it's a bit disheartening for people to put up a chart which at a glance demonstrates the point when you dismiss it without consideration.  You don't have to develop a whole lot of technical expertise to find a basic understanding of charts hugely helpful in stock selection, buy and sell points.
> Have a look at skc's chart now, perhaps, and you will see what he is illustrating.




This chart ?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=776822&viewfull=1#post776822

That's easy, my comment was a general one about charts, some of them are very technical.


----------



## Ves (9 June 2013)

RottenValue said:


> The short story is that Telstra is a business that has *ZERO *growth in Earnings Per Share since 2000 (having gone from 31.4 cents to 31.5 cents).  During that time, EPS has ranged from 25.7 cents to 35.2 cents, spectacularly unimpressive given its dominant market share.



Someone else might like to confirm,  but hasn't the business and capital structure changed over time so that there is higher FCF compared to times past?   McLovin maybe?


----------



## McLovin (9 June 2013)

Ves said:


> Someone else might like to confirm,  but hasn't the business and capital structure changed over time so that there is higher FCF compared to times past?   McLovin maybe?




Yer...Not at home so don't have my spreadys handy but this kind of tells the story just as well...

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/financial-information/financial-summary/

FCF is calculated to the firm not to equity, so deduct ~$1.1b in interest in for FCFE.

It seems like every day there is another "expert" declaring the TLS dividend unsustainable and that it is being funded by debt. Nothing could be further from the truth, debt has been falling as the dividend was maintained.


----------



## Ann (20 June 2013)

Just a thought. Technically speaking sometimes handles break off cups because there is a greater pattern at play. Keep your stops up to date!


----------



## coolcup (23 June 2013)

The price action on TLS has tested and fallen through the lower end of the upward sloping trend channel and is headed for a test of support at $4.50. I would await confirmation that this support line holds to see if this is indeed a healthy pullback or something a little more sinister. The key risk is continued weakness in the Australian dollar which will add further incentive for offshore investors to keep pulling money out of the Australian market - and they are primarily invested in the liquid, large cap stocks like TLS.


----------



## Ann (23 June 2013)

Ann said:


> Just a thought. Technically speaking sometimes handles break off cups because there is a greater pattern at play. Keep your stops up to date!




....and the point I was trying to make was the DOW has reached a critical point which suggested to me there may be a decent retrace on the US markets and if this is the case it will drag down the Aussie market with it, including high profile companies like Telstra, so my confidence in a cup and handle outcome may be disappointed, the handle may well be broken off in the washup!

I put up a monthly chart for the DOW for the end of last month. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8840&p=775911&viewfull=1#post775911  I suggested there was a risk of retracement, it appears my fears were correct. I will put up another chart for the DOW at the end of this month for the quarterly view, also not a pretty sight so far. The temptation is great to start shorting.


----------



## MrBurns (23 June 2013)

> Unions raise doubts over Telstra's copper network; workers using plastic bags to waterproof cables
> 
> Unions have told the ABC that Telstra's copper network is in a state of disrepair, with workers at the coalface of the infrastructure using plastic bags to protect cables from water.




http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-...rk-in-a-state-of-disrepair-say-unions/4774342


----------



## Boggo (23 June 2013)

Purely technical (EW) view.

Three downside target areas with 4.32 being the likely predictive probability. Until there is a confirmed reversal at one of those three levels or a break above 4.68 then a case of just watch and wait imo.
There are some some great leverage derivatives on TLS such as TLSIOI that collect the full dividend etc provided that you are holding in the right direction.

(click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (23 June 2013)

Getting back to basics, how does Telstra cover its dividends with earnings?

Then have enough left over for R&D and expansion.


----------



## Ann (24 June 2013)

sptrawler said:


> Getting back to basics, how does Telstra cover its dividends with earnings?
> 
> Then have enough left over for R&D and expansion.




I just did a quick calculation to work out TLS dividend cover and currently it is a very healthy 2.07. So there is plenty of money for a divie and TCB!


----------



## coolcup (24 June 2013)

What is TCB?


----------



## McLovin (24 June 2013)

sptrawler said:


> Getting back to basics, how does Telstra cover its dividends with earnings?
> 
> Then have enough left over for R&D and expansion.




It covers it with cashflow.

Debt wouldn't be falling if the dividend wasn't being covered by the cashflow of the business.


----------



## Ann (24 June 2013)

coolcup said:


> What is TCB?




TCB=Taking Care of Business


----------



## coolcup (24 June 2013)

Ann said:


> TCB=Taking Care of Business




Thanks Ann. Sorry, need to get with the lingo!


----------



## Ann (24 June 2013)

coolcup said:


> Thanks Ann. Sorry, need to get with the lingo!




Never any need to be sorry about asking a question of clarification, it shows intelligence Coolcup! It was originally coined by Elvis Presley who called his band TCB, short for Taking Care of Business. So it is actually a bit of a tragic term in reality!


----------



## Boggo (24 June 2013)

Ann said:


> ..., short for Taking Care of Business. So it is actually a bit of a tragic term in reality!




Aren't there enough tragic terms associated with company fundamentals without creating more


----------



## Ann (24 June 2013)

Boggo said:


> Aren't there enough tragic terms associated with company fundamentals without creating more




Nooo it wasn't me,  I am merely the messenger! *falls dead with a gun shot wound to the vitals:rippergun


and I am not overeducated i just know how to google!


----------



## EngineeringGrad (9 July 2013)

Thoughts about the Telstra share price with regards the upcoming election and half yearly dividend?


----------



## Muschu (16 July 2013)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh*

I find this company an investment quandary.  I've profited well since the SP was around $3.  Then up to $5+, down to $4.50, then up again......  At times a refuge, at others perhaps a growth opportunity.... And with a decent dividend. 

I reduced our SMSF hold... But in this volatile market am considering buying back.

Any TA, FA or other thoughts are most welcome...


----------



## MrBurns (16 July 2013)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh*



Muschu said:


> I find this company an investment quandary.  I've profited well since the SP was around $3.  Then up to $5+, down to $4.50, then up again......  At times a refuge, at others perhaps a growth opportunity.... And with a decent dividend.
> I reduced our SMSF hold... But in this volatile market am considering buying back.
> Any TA, FA or other thoughts are most welcome...




TLS is really the only stock I'm watching, I believe it's future is good but with glitches along the way.
I got out then back in again at $4.60, it's been good to me............so far.


----------



## Julia (16 July 2013)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh*



Muschu said:


> I find this company an investment quandary.  I've profited well since the SP was around $3.  Then up to $5+, down to $4.50, then up again......  At times a refuge, at others perhaps a growth opportunity.... And with a decent dividend.
> 
> I reduced our SMSF hold... But in this volatile market am considering buying back.
> 
> Any TA, FA or other thoughts are most welcome...



Maybe consider what else you would be doing with the money rick.
It still has a decent yield compared with bank deposits if that were to be the alternative.
That's the only light in which I'm viewing my small holding.


----------



## Muschu (16 July 2013)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh*



Julia said:


> Maybe consider what else you would be doing with the money rick.
> It still has a decent yield compared with bank deposits if that were to be the alternative.
> That's the only light in which I'm viewing my small holding.




We both understand the importance of capital preservation in retirement Julia.  TLS has been brilliant for us.... If the general market becomes more bullish, and the dollar declines, it seems conceivable that investors may move elsewhere... Some may even view TLS as a shorting opportunity.....   But maybe the refuge factor is accompanied by growth opportunities.... 

So basically I am saying I have no idea.  We have reduced our hold by 75%.....  And have no idea idea if that was silly or wise.  But the good news is that we sold at a significant profit and that it is only money...


Best wishes

Rick


----------



## Boggo (16 July 2013)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh*



MrBurns said:


> TLS is really the only stock I'm watching, I believe it's future is good but with glitches along the way.
> I got out then back in again at $4.60, it's been good to me............so far.





Been good to me too although I haven't actually held the stock, been in and out of TLSIOI instalment warrants most of the way up and collected a few dividends along the way.

In the current market it is one of the few stocks where I am willing to use leverage (warrants) and the only warrant holding at the moment.

Its behaviour has been reasonably predictable, it got to within 2 cents of minimum turn target area before turning back up...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=85&p=779924&viewfull=1#post779924

Projections based on the weekly chart below has a potential target area in the range 5.30 to 5.50 but I don't expect it to get there without a few minor corrections along the way.

Just my


----------



## Muschu (17 July 2013)

Thanks Boggo - and Julia once again.  May be time for a little patience on my part.
And you are quite right Julia.... Where do we put our money when bank returns are so modest.
I have been using AFI and ARG as relatively safe havens.  Around 4% FF. 

Leveraging is not for me --  maybe if I was younger??


----------



## Muschu (18 July 2013)

Hi 

Can someone please remind me....?

What is the current ruling about how the minimum number of calendar days that shares must be held for before the franking credits can be claimed?

And are those number of calendar days calculated back from the XD date?  

As an example:  Hypothetically if I was to buy TLS tomorrow and the XD date is around August 20 then my understanding is that I will not qualify for the franking credits... 

Correct?

With thanks

Rick


----------



## craft (18 July 2013)

Muschu said:


> Hi
> 
> Can someone please remind me....?
> 
> ...




45 days (plus the day of purchase and day of disposal) in total – doesn’t matter where the ex dividend date falls within the holding period.

There is a small holder exemption to the 45 day requirement if your total franking credits are less than 5K. (Exemption not applicable if holdings are held via a SMSF/trust /company)


----------



## Muschu (18 July 2013)

craft said:


> 45 days (plus the day of purchase and day of disposal) in total – doesn’t matter where the ex dividend date falls within the holding period.
> 
> There is a small holder exemption to the 45 day requirement if your total franking credits are less than 5K. (Exemption not applicable if holdings are held via a SMSF/trust /company)




Thanks Craft...This would be inside a SMSF in pension phase. So I gather I could, if I choose, buy tomorrow and hold for 45+ days, and still get the FF credits ??

Genuinely appreciate your comments. Many thanks. Anything extra welcome.  


Best wishes 

Rick ... 

always learning.....


----------



## MrBurns (19 August 2013)

What happened today ? down 17c on 100m volume.

Ex Dividend ? would that be the cause ?


----------



## craft (19 August 2013)

MrBurns said:


> What happened today ? down 17c on 100m volume.
> 
> Ex Dividend ? would that be the cause ?




Yep ex 14c div and 6c franking credit.


----------



## MrBurns (19 August 2013)

craft said:


> Yep ex 14c div and 6c franking credit.




Ahhh thanks, huge volume too.


----------



## clinta44 (19 August 2013)

Check out this calendar while it doesn't cover every stock on the ASX it does cover a lot of them. 

I find if handy too keep up to day with annual report announcements etc.

http://businesscalendar.businessday.com.au/

Im pretty sure its just the www.brrmedia.com calendar though.


----------



## MrBurns (25 October 2013)

> Can David Thodey turn Telstra into Apple?
> 
> 
> DAVID Thodey has cemented Telstra's evolution from its engineering past into a technology future.
> ...




http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...lstra-into-apple/story-fni0d787-1226745509267

I think I may have to buy more


----------



## Knobby22 (25 October 2013)

I remember them going into Asia previously and losing their money.
I also remember them buying Sausage Software and losing their money again.
Is this CEO more capable?


----------



## MrBurns (25 October 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> I remember them going into Asia previously and losing their money.
> I also remember them buying Sausage Software and losing their money again.
> Is this CEO more capable?




I think so, he's a winner and I think they may be about to take a big step up.


----------



## McLovin (25 October 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> I remember them going into Asia previously and losing their money.
> I also remember them buying Sausage Software and losing their money again.
> Is this CEO more capable?




Yeah I certainly wouldn't be paying a premium based on some hypothesised Asian el Dorado. Comparing TLS to Apple is just plain dumb, I don't see people queuing up to buy the latest T-Box. Cloud computing, mobile internet and connecting devices is TLS's bread and butter, it's hardly revolutionary and it's not as though TLS will march into Asia with a government monopoly. Personally, I think you're mad to consider this a growth stock, yet. Handy dividend though and Thodey is a very competant CEO.


----------



## MrBurns (25 October 2013)

I cant see a lot standing in their way, it just needs to right man to take them to the next level and I think Thodey just might be the one to do it.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (25 October 2013)

Thodey has been a very good CEO since taking over from Sol.

But credit should also go to Catherine Livingstone, who has been a very good chairperson for Telstra since Ms Livingstone took that role.

Ms Livingstone turned Cochlear into an international powerhouse and the combinatin of Ms Livingstone as chairperson and Thodey as CEO has been excellent for TLS.

I hold, partly because of Ms Livingstone's presence as chairperson.


----------



## McLovin (25 October 2013)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Thodey has been a very good CEO since taking over from Sol.




And this is the thing. When Thodey took over TLS was a mess. It was battling the government (a battle you will never win) and had high customer dissatisfaction. What Thodey has really done is smooth things over with the government and sort out the NBN and improved the customer service experience. It was the low hanging fruit, and it's gone now. TLS at its heart is still an engineering company (and from what I understand, a pretty damn good one), changing that culture to be more customer focused won't happen over night and they won't enter any new markets with the natural advantage of incumbency. TLS basically needs to reinvent itself to pull off its Asian plan, it'll be more like IBM than Apple. Coincidentally, Thodey came from IBM.


----------



## Knobby22 (26 October 2013)

Good post McLovin.
I didn't realise Thodey came from IBM.

The big strength Telstra has is their engineering. If they destroy this they will lose a big advantage over their competitors. The NBN is going to be big and Telstra can get a good slice of it if they are smart.


----------



## MrBurns (31 October 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Good post McLovin.
> I didn't realise Thodey came from IBM.
> 
> The big strength Telstra has is their engineering. If they destroy this they will lose a big advantage over their competitors. The NBN is going to be big and Telstra can get a good slice of it if they are smart.




I think they're smart enough and the market is running with it.


----------



## MrBurns (5 November 2013)

Telstra prepares for listing of Autohome on NYSE 

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network25154.html

Hope they know what they're doing. portals is a whole different ball game to Telco stuff.


----------



## McLovin (4 December 2013)

Out of TLS. It's done what I wanted it to do, and I have better use for the money.


----------



## notting (12 December 2013)

You'd think all this reviewing of the nbn would be putting a bit of a negative hit on TLS.
Is their 10b guaranteed?
They are talking about stringing it up on power lines which would mean they don't need TLS ducts.


----------



## rcm617 (12 December 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Telstra prepares for listing of Autohome on NYSE
> 
> http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network25154.html
> 
> Hope they know what they're doing. portals is a whole different ball game to Telco stuff.




Sounds like they know what they are doing, they bought this for $76 million in 2008, and their residual 66.2% stake is now worth $2 billion.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianso...ying-potential-but-real-winner-is-australian/


----------



## piggybank (27 December 2013)

Highest close today since March 2005


----------



## piggybank (16 January 2014)

Most peoples favourite dividend stock Telstra (ASX: TLS), is amassing a significant lump of cash that could find its way into shareholders pockets. Not surprisingly, income-hungry investors are salivating at the thought. Earlier this week, the telco announced it was selling 70% of its Sensis business for $454 million. That’s chickenfeed for Telstra, but when you add it to other recent asset sales, plus an expected $4.6 billion or more in free cash flow in 2014, you’re looking at a very decent lump of change.

Expectations are that the telecom giant has earmarked the cash for capital management purposes, which could include a higher dividend, a special, one-off dividend or a share buyback. CEO David Thodey is reported as saying that he is conscious that shareholders would appreciate a return in dividends, which could mean a lovely bonus for Telstra shareholders this year.

Lets wait and see!!


----------



## boofhead (16 January 2014)

Do you see Telstra having enough franking credits? Any other time it is suggested it seems it is the issue. Maybe a share buyback.


----------



## Valued (16 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Most peoples favourite dividend stock Telstra (ASX: TLS), is amassing a significant lump of cash that could find its way into shareholders pockets. Not surprisingly, income-hungry investors are salivating at the thought. Earlier this week, the telco announced it was selling 70% of its Sensis business for $454 million. That’s chickenfeed for Telstra, but when you add it to other recent asset sales, plus an expected $4.6 billion or more in free cash flow in 2014, you’re looking at a very decent lump of change.
> 
> Expectations are that the telecom giant has earmarked the cash for capital management purposes, which could include a higher dividend, a special, one-off dividend or a share buyback. CEO David Thodey is reported as saying that he is conscious that shareholders would appreciate a return in dividends, which could mean a lovely bonus for Telstra shareholders this year.
> 
> Lets wait and see!!




That's useful information for anyone considering a short. They might be right but if you were shorting with say a CFD you might be up for a special dividend which would be unfortunate to say the least.


----------



## rnr (16 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Most peoples favourite dividend stock Telstra (ASX: TLS), is amassing a significant lump of cash that could find its way into shareholders pockets. Not surprisingly, income-hungry investors are salivating at the thought. Earlier this week, the telco announced it was selling 70% of its Sensis business for $454 million. That’s chickenfeed for Telstra, but when you add it to other recent asset sales, plus an expected $4.6 billion or more in free cash flow in 2014, you’re looking at a very decent lump of change.
> 
> Expectations are that the telecom giant has earmarked the cash for capital management purposes, which could include a higher dividend, a special, one-off dividend or a share buyback. CEO David Thodey is reported as saying that he is conscious that shareholders would appreciate a return in dividends, which could mean a lovely bonus for Telstra shareholders this year.
> 
> Lets wait and see!!




The Motley Fool by any chance?

http://www.fool.com.au/2014/01/15/market-crash-alert-2014-style/


----------



## galumay (17 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Lets wait and see!!




You should really make it clear when you are directly quoting from a source and reference it.


----------



## clayton4115 (8 February 2014)

this stock is losing upward momentum, any agree?


----------



## telefomin (8 February 2014)

clayton4115 said:


> View attachment 56738
> 
> 
> this stock is losing upward momentum, any agree?




Well the SP seems to be struggling even on very recent up days.  Could people be extracting profit in order to enter other stocks which they seem as having more growth potential?

I do hold TLS and, at age 65, hope to continue to do so.


----------



## clayton4115 (9 February 2014)

well tls reports in a week or two, interesting to see how the sp performs

I have taken a short on this see how it goes


----------



## nulla nulla (9 February 2014)

*Telstra:  Weekending Friday 07 February 2014 * 

The four year chart shows Telstra has enjoyed a stellar recovery since bottoming out at $2.55 in November 2010. At that point the annual dividend of $0.28 fully franked ($0.40. before tax) represented a gross yield of 15.68%. An attractive rate of return by anyone's standards. Even more attractive for self funded retirees looking for high yield and the prospects of a tax return for the fully franked component or part thereof.  At the recent peak of $5.29 the fully franked dividend of $0.28 ($0.40 before tax) dropped to a gross yield rate of 7.56%.




No doubt over the past three and a half years the share price has been driven upwards as the market embraced the changes introduced by Mr Thodey and and the deal struck with the Labor Government for the roll out of the NBN. The share price rise faltered as the market factored in the change of Government and proposed changes to the NBN rollout. Also network advantages Telstra enjoyed over Optus and Vodaphone have started to close with the rollout of competing G4 mobile networks. 

Telstra continues to enhance value by unloading non performing assets and freeing up resources for investment in opportunities but the question now facing the market is whether there is enough growth opportunity left in the near future to support continued investment in Telstra and can Telstra maintain the fully franked dividend of $0.28? At this point the market is looking to see what Telstra will do with the capital it has generated from the sale of Sensis and some asian assets. Will Telstra retire debt, do a special div or commence a share buy back or a combination of these options? 

The share price looks as if it has peaked and has entered another volatile sideways and possibly downward cycle. The Relative Strength Index chart shows that the share price has recently gapped down on increasing daily volumes. There appears to be a contest at the moment between the optimists expecting a bounce and the pessimists shorting for further falls. 




The MACD chart also shows the moving average is clearly in a down trend and the gap to the recent share price is widening. 




To me, until we get some clear direction from the Government in respect of the NBN rollout and Telstra as to what they will do with there recent capital realizations, the support levels at $4.92, $4.89 and $4.77 appear likely to be tested in the near future. As always do your own research and good luck.


----------



## clayton4115 (9 February 2014)

thanks for your comprehensive analysis, the reporting period is on 13 Feb will be interesting to see where the stock goes, i got my stop at $5.72


----------



## qldfrog (9 February 2014)

do you mean $4.72 or are you shorting?


----------



## clayton4115 (9 February 2014)

i am shorting


----------



## burglar (9 February 2014)

clayton4115 said:


> well tls reports in a week or two, interesting to see how the sp performs
> 
> I have taken a short on this see how it goes






clayton4115 said:


> thanks for your comprehensive analysis, the reporting period is on 13 Feb will be interesting to see where the stock goes, i got my stop at $5.72






qldfrog said:


> do you mean $4.72 or are you shorting?




He's in his shorts!!


----------



## boofhead (13 February 2014)

Is the increased interim dividence of 14.5 cents messing with your shorting?

I noticed the free cashflow is down from 2.2 billion to 1.7 billion.


----------



## clayton4115 (13 February 2014)

pretty good result today, stock up, still holding the short, see how it goes.


----------



## nulla nulla (15 February 2014)

At this stage the Telstra share price has bounced off the lower channel bar, I guess we will have to wait a few days to see how the market digests the report and the extra $0.005c dividend. 





Not a bad recovery, 4% for the week.


----------



## clayton4115 (15 February 2014)

Not a bad recovery, 4% for the week. 

Yes as per the broader market.


----------



## jaeyon (19 August 2014)

no post for a while but positive recent coverage.

recent announcement of a $1bn buy back and this telstra-lifts-the-lid-on-its-next-gen-cloud-collaboration-service looks promising too.

What are peoples thoughts?


----------



## Boggo (19 August 2014)

*Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh*



Boggo said:


> Projections based on the weekly chart below has a potential target area in the range 5.30 to 5.50 but I don't expect it to get there without a few minor corrections along the way.




That was from over a year ago on here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=85&p=784457&viewfull=1#post784457

Gone through that level nicely. I hold instalment warrant TLSIOZ, noticed a significant buy on that warrant today.
TLS has been a good performer since 2011.


----------



## piggybank (7 November 2014)

It hasn't been this high in 13.5 years but still some way off it's ATH of $8.96. I also forgot to mention that this is the 50% Fib of the down leg of November 1999 to November 2010.





​


----------



## pinkboy (22 December 2014)

Closed at 6 pesos today!



pinkboy


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (22 December 2014)

Yeah i reckon its on the way to a good price, new nbn deal looks good by all reports, 

As people move away from these cap mobile plans with phone included to people wanting pure service contract(calls and data) and having 24-7 usage will be a bonus for TLS, phone is now coming second to a point

The other area going well is the telecommunications/infrastructure services they are providing to defence force, major companies, international clients etc


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (18 January 2015)

TLS going well,

i wonder if they should get out of foxTEL


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (27 January 2015)

Even with Optus coming out about how its going to attack Telstra's mobile customer base the stock still pushed up another 1% and bit more today

Fingers crossed the dividend can tick up a little aswell


----------



## Muschu (27 January 2015)

A superb hold since under $3.... (Won't mention the losers..  )


----------



## UMike (28 January 2015)

Gee 

Just sold 1/3 on close today. ($6.49)
Dunno if I made the right decision.
They way they were going it made my portfolio very lop sided. A good problem to have.


At least I am cashed up now just in case there is a correction, or a sell down any time soon.


----------



## Nortorious (28 January 2015)

UMike said:


> Gee
> 
> Just sold 1/3 on close today. ($6.49)
> Dunno if I made the right decision.
> ...




Nice work riding this one UMike. My analysis has it pointing higher still so probably a good thing that you still have 2/3 of your position left (that is of course if my analysis is on the mark).

"Right decision" is an interesting statement.... If it is right for you and relieves any concerns, than it is right. I try to trade my plan without worrying about my emotions but in saying that, if something plays on my mind... I start my analysis from scratch and see what it says (and try to objectively assess if I would be a buyer or seller or neither).

Plenty of opportunities around at the moment so I'm fairly light on cash in my portfolio.


----------



## Bintang (4 February 2015)

Nortorious said:


> Nice work riding this one UMike. My analysis has it pointing higher still so probably a good thing that you still have 2/3 of your position left (that is of course if my analysis is on the mark).




A long time back I had a target of $5.90 to $6.00 for TLS and thought I might off-load at that level but at the time I never imagined that interest rates would continue to fall as much as they have.
It seems crazy, but I am beginning to think that $9 to $10 for is now possible given the interest rate cut today and very likely more still to come.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2015)

+ the fact that as a business TLS is not a bad one; protected market still with a bit of initiative (as opposed to TLS 10 y ago)


----------



## rattler888 (4 February 2015)

Noob question, why do low interest rates affect TLS sp?


----------



## sir elements (4 February 2015)

rattler888 said:


> Noob question, why do low interest rates affect TLS sp?




Investors will now be chasing dividend yields because term deposit rates will decrease.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2015)

sir elements said:


> Investors will now be chasing dividend yields because term deposit rates will decrease.



And when this happens, the mum and dads go for TLS and the banks.
A rough summary but mostly accurate
So even if I did not want to touch banks with a pole, I ended buying some NAB yesterday on top of my TLS shares
Share market has told me one thing for sure
Follow the lemmings or you loose..so I am a cautious lemming, staying at the back and ready to jum out before the cliff

And by the way, in the real world: lemmings do not commit mass suicide but the image is now part of our culture so i use it unshamelessly.


----------



## tinhat (4 February 2015)

A while ago I made a big mistake by selling down my CBA holdings significantly. I was worried that I was too overweight banks and felt that CBA had gone above fair value and I should look for opportunity elsewhere. Big mistake because regardless of the share price, the I was getting a fantastic yield based on what I paid for them.

If I can remain satisfied that the business can sustain its dividend, I won't be selling my TLS given that it is yielding me 12.4% grossed up in the SMSF.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2015)

tinhat said:


> I was getting a fantastic yield based on what I paid for them.



hi Tinhat, I do not get that
why should you care the price you got them for?
you are today in a position when you should compare the yield vs the current price not the price you paid for in the past
and then assess:
can i get a better yield elsewhere for the capital values of these shares?
This is a general point of view, not TLS based as I bought some more myself today

But I sold today from my IP
the yield (against my purchasing price) was good but not good enough against the current market value of the assets so I decide to sell;
obviously capital gain tax, expected capital gain etc need to be taken into account when doing that reset

 Otherwise on that principle you never ever sell CBA if you bought them for a few dollars when privatised  a few decades ago even if tomorrow their share price was to be divided by 4 and you would by any chance be aware .


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 February 2015)

You would have to be happy with today's results, all going well, the boss doing a good job

Very very small increase in dividend,


----------



## notting (20 February 2015)

David Thodey - Simply brilliant.
Nice guy too.
Pitty I can't say the same for the idiot who sold out the future fund at the worst possible time by trashing TLS and then selling the public massive stake in it.


----------



## tinhat (20 February 2015)

notting said:


> David Thodey - Simply brilliant.
> Nice guy too.
> Pitty I can't say the same for the idiot who sold out the future fund at the worst possible time by trashing TLS and then selling the public massive stake in it.




David Murray's dumping of TLS from the future fund combined with the government deal to buy out Telstra's copper wires and pits provided one of the best opportunities of the century for mum and dad investors. Ching, ching.


----------



## Boggo (20 February 2015)

notting said:


> ....
> Pitty I can't say the same for the idiot who sold out the future fund at the worst possible time by trashing TLS and then selling the public massive stake in it.




Yeah but didn't he create some fantastic opportunities for those who didn't ride the downside 

We need more mexicans I say 

(click to expand)


----------



## Bintang (20 February 2015)

Boggo said:


> Yeah but didn't he create some fantastic opportunities for those who didn't ride the downside
> 
> We need more mexicans I say
> 
> (click to expand)




Too right. Reminds me of Kerry Packer's quip, "You only get one Alan Bond in a lifetime"


----------



## ROE (21 February 2015)

Bintang said:


> Too right. Reminds me of Kerry Packer's quip, "You only get one Alan Bond in a lifetime"




That was before the internet trading
There dozen of them now every week


----------



## Bintang (21 February 2015)

ROE said:


> That was before the internet trading
> There dozen of them now every week




That's funny but I think you are talking about smaller fry than Alan Bond and unfortunately The Future Fund stopped dumping TLS. I wish they would do it again.


----------



## datto (22 March 2015)

ROE said:


> That was before the internet trading
> There dozen of them now every week




The thing with Bondy is that even though he went through the mincer, in the end he's still got plenty of coin.  He's about the only survivor from that era.


----------



## The Falcon (22 March 2015)

^ Not forgetting K.M. Stokes of course


----------



## Muschu (22 March 2015)

datto said:


> The thing with Bondy is that even though he went through the mincer, in the end he's still got plenty of coin.  He's about the only survivor from that era.




Survived in monetary terms only however.


----------



## datto (22 March 2015)

The Falcon said:


> ^ Not forgetting K.M. Stokes of course




Bondy was more colourful

He made me laugh


----------



## datto (22 March 2015)

Muschu said:


> Survived in monetary terms only however.




Life's had it's ups and downs I suppose


----------



## rimtas (6 June 2015)

As of Today TLS is moving against the main trend for 5 straight month. That's the biggest time-wise correction since the 2010 Bottom, suggesting that the 5 year run-up is over.  Depending of what the broader market will do, TLS may crash or move sideways, but the bottom line is that it should correct the entire advance since $2,5 bottom. It could take years. 

Now the stock is still above the two  trendlines that market see as important ones. The breach of any of them only confirms that bear market in TLS has started. Short term wave subdivisions are not textbook, best looking like a bunch of 3's, but switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.


----------



## tinhat (6 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> As of Today TLS is moving against the main trend for 5 straight month. That's the biggest time-wise correction since the 2010 Bottom, suggesting that the 5 year run-up is over.  Depending of what the broader market will do, TLS may crash or move sideways, but the bottom line is that it should correct the entire advance since $2,5 bottom. It could take years.
> 
> Now the stock is still above the two  trendlines that market see as important ones. The breach of any of them only confirms that bear market in TLS has started. Short term wave subdivisions are not textbook, best looking like a bunch of 3's, but switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.
> 
> View attachment 62897




Maybe it helps that I don't know much about Elliot waves and don't use them, except when they appear obvious to me, but the wave count you've applied to that chart is just plain ridiculous. Talk about the emperor wearing no cloths. Leave aside your mumbo jumbo, stand back from the monitor and tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart. No argument that it is correcting - it has come off over 10% this year; but how you've managed to get five Elliot waves into that chart is beyond me.


----------



## Triathlete (6 June 2015)

tinhat said:


> Maybe it helps that I don't know much about Elliot waves and don't use them, except when they appear obvious to me, but the wave count you've applied to that chart is just plain ridiculous. *stand back from the monitor and tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart*. No argument that it is correcting - it has come off over 10% this year; but how you've managed to get five Elliot waves into that chart is beyond me.
> 
> View attachment 62912




You are using a weekly chart.

 The chart that was put up previous was a daily chart

Here is my take on it from the daily chart.....I prefer using weekly and monthly charts.

Wave 2 has retraced almost 100% of the wave 1...usually retraces 38.2% - 61.8% but can be up to 100%.

Wave 3 is usually the extended wave and the safest wave to profit from usually rises 162% to 262% of the price range of wave 1.
In this case it has risen 725% of wave 1.The minimum a wave 3 rises is usually 100%.

Wave 4 usually retraces 38.2% to 61.8% of price range of wave 3 and usually no more than 50%.In a very bullish share wave 4 may only retrace up to 25% in this case 16%.

Wave 5 usually rises 50% to 75 % of price range of wave 3. In this case just short of 50%.

Note:  Their are other rules but this is the basics for this explanation.


----------



## Muschu (6 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> As of Today TLS is moving against the main trend for 5 straight month. That's the biggest time-wise correction since the 2010 Bottom, suggesting that the 5 year run-up is over.  Depending of what the broader market will do, TLS may crash or move sideways, but the bottom line is that it should correct the entire advance since $2,5 bottom. It could take years.
> 
> Now the stock is still above the two  trendlines that market see as important ones. The breach of any of them only confirms that bear market in TLS has started. Short term wave subdivisions are not textbook, best looking like a bunch of 3's, but switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.
> 
> View attachment 62897




Hi Rimtas

I appreciate your contributions.

I can't locate a previous post of yours that I was searching for.  I thought it suggested $6.08 as a buy point.  

I may have this totally wrong and am not a TA by any stretch of the imagination.

Does anyone on ASF REALLY know where the market is heading?  

Regards and apologies if my recollection is incorrect.


----------



## Triathlete (6 June 2015)

Muschu said:


> Hi Rimtas
> 
> 
> I can't locate a previous post of yours that I was searching for.  I thought it suggested $6.08 as a buy point.
> ...




Hi Muschu,
                That price above $6.08 may have been an entry back then but we would have been on an impulse wave 5 still moving higher and based on EW theory would have been looking for it to rise to 50% @$6.83 as a minimum,16% higher,... to 75% @ $7.62 which is 25% higher. 

However now that we are in retracement and a possible wave A or LT wave 2 now is not the time to buy as we are possibly in a corrective wave decline ( as Rimtas has mentioned )which could be anywhere between 38.2% to 100% we cannot tell until we see it unfolding on the chart and keep updating our wave counts.

Also looking at the daily chart an earlier entry of $5.81 on dow theory entry would have been a conservative entry if you had been trading off this daily chart and a more aggressive trader may have been in earlier after the first signs that the trend had change up on daily and weekly Gann swing up.


----------



## craft (6 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> switching on Daily or Weekly presents picture as the start of an Impulsive decline.




Would take a turn around in current financial suppression environment IMO.  The TLS business is pretty stable ATM and price is more a result of the discount rate applied than anything else. It could be regarded as expensive on an absolute basis but not relative to other reasonably stable yields available. 

On a relative basis to the XAO nothing in duration or depth out of the ordinary here.





ps
Waves are for surfing.

[video=vimeo;71959302]https://vimeo.com/71959302[/video]


----------



## Triathlete (7 June 2015)

craft said:


> The TLS business is pretty stable ATM and price is* more a result of the discount rate applied than anything else.* It could be regarded as expensive on an absolute basis but not relative to other reasonably stable yields available.




Then best to let it discount some more before jumping back in...!!


----------



## Triathlete (7 June 2015)

Triathlete said:


> You are using a weekly chart.
> 
> The chart that was put up previous was a daily chart
> 
> Here is my take on it from the daily chart.....I prefer using weekly and monthly charts.




Correction to previous post 1770....I have put up a weekly chart instead of a daily chart as well but we can still see the breakdown of the waves.

There is a possibility that we could be retracing on a wave 4 and so we could still have a wave 5 to go we will need to see how far this move retraces to have an idea of where we are.

The trend lines that where shown on Rimtas's chart will be important so need to keep an eye on it and we still may get a chance to trade it long once we get some confirmation on what wave we are on.

Possibilities in my opinion so far we could be on a wave 4,wave A, or a Long term wave 2.


----------



## Porper (7 June 2015)

tinhat said:


> the wave count you've applied to that chart is just plain ridiculous. Talk about the emperor wearing no cloths. Leave aside your mumbo jumbo, stand back from the monitor and tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart.




To me there is no high probability wave count on this chart. The one previously put forward as completing 5-waves is clearly incorrect and fits somebody's bias...as in a wave count has been made to "fit" someone's expectations. A common fault with Elliott Wave pupils.

Moving down in a falling channel to support. Good yield which should be sustainable, so difficult to envisage a steep decline.


----------



## Porper (7 June 2015)

Porper said:


> To me there is no high probability wave count on this chart. The one previously put forward as completing 5-waves is clearly incorrect and fits somebody's bias...as in a wave count has been made to "fit" someone's expectations. A common fault with Elliott Wave pupils.
> 
> Moving down in a falling channel to support. Good yield which should be sustainable, so difficult to envisage a steep decline.




Forgot to mention the 200 day moving average. Coincidence?


----------



## Triathlete (7 June 2015)

Porper said:


> To me there is no high probability wave count on this chart. The one previously put forward as completing 5-waves is clearly incorrect and fits somebody's bias...as in a wave count has been made to "fit" someone's expectations. A common fault with Elliott Wave pupils.
> 
> Moving down in a falling channel to support. Good yield which should be sustainable, so difficult to envisage a steep decline.




Hi Porper,
               With the way you have marked up your chart could we not say that the move from the low in Sept 2014 to the high in Feb 2015 could be the LT wave 1 and with the current retracement if it finds support as is shown on your chart could be the LT wave 2 and then start the LT wave 3 ?


----------



## Porper (7 June 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Hi Porper,
> With the way you have marked up your chart could we not say that the move from the low in Sept 2014 to the high in Feb 2015 could be the LT wave 1 and with the current retracement if it finds support as is shown on your chart could be the LT wave 2 and then start the LT wave 3 ?




Could be Triathlete but the leg you are talking about unfolds in 3-waves...corrective. Also where does that leg higher fit within the larger degree count? TLS price action has been strong, no doubt about that but for the most part it has been quite choppy. My opinion only but for me, trying to force a count on this chart doesn't help from a trading point of view. Sometimes it's best to go with more traditional analysis....or stand aside.


----------



## Triathlete (7 June 2015)

Porper said:


> Could be Triathlete but the leg you are talking about unfolds in 3-waves...corrective. Also where does that leg higher fit within the larger degree count? TLS price action has been strong, no doubt about that but for the most part it has been quite choppy. My opinion only but for me, trying to force a count on this chart doesn't help from a trading point of view. *Sometimes it's best to go with more traditional analysis....or stand aside.*




Thanks for your view Porper.
I had also carried out some price analysis  to try and support the EW wave count and had come up with these level which are the strongest in my view:

$5.70
$7.00
$7.68
$10.84
$11.50

I usually use a combination of* price, pattern *and *time analysis *to help zero in on the likely future movement and turning points of a stock and do not use EW in isolation.


----------



## rimtas (7 June 2015)

tinhat said:


> tell me how you manage to get five waves into that chart.
> View attachment 62912





Here you go, please (chart from my earlier post about TLS).












Actually I do not understand the anger and hate towards all ellioticians and the Wave Principle itself, especially from ones that are not even familiar with the method.
 It is the great basis for analysis and I would recommend it to add it to everyone's arsenal of knowledge about markets. 
I understand that Prechter made (and still makes to this day) a lot of laugh, but it has nothing to do with EW. He just has resources and a great public availability to do so and many people understand that  EW is somehow directly related to DJIA crash to 100 or whatever. 
 But the truth is that this is one man's opinion, based on theories and hypothesies he  delivered. Anyone saying that he is wrong is wrong too. And anyone saying that he right, is wrong as well. Because the end is seen only after the fact and the method used to forecast it doesn't matter actually.  

So please, just forget Precter and discover the Wave Principle without him in mind.


----------



## rimtas (7 June 2015)

Or a Simpler Way of counting Waves-identify the steepest five way advance within the structure as a Third Wave, and what is left is Leading Diagonal as First Wave (consisting of five) and Expanding Ending Diagnal consisting also of five(two major corrections within are clear).  Count as you like (or be blind as Porper), but the unfolding correction right now is the biggest correction, means second wave in progress. 
It can end any time, but usually they end not when everyone put good fundamentals as the reason for further advance on the table. Good fundamentals are the consequence of the rising market and positive mood, which made TLS prosper-this is reflected in prices already. 
During second waves, fundamentals start to deteriorate, because people's mood turns down.They refuse services, downgrade, or switch to cheaper low quality providers. This will be reflected in prices later.

 Good fundamentals and a big confidence and complacency among commentators only confirms the fact that Intermediate First Wave has toped out. And I won't be surprised if TLS will crash right to the 2010 bottom of $2.55 in the years to come, but for many it would be a nasty surprise, that denies their logic.


----------



## gartley (7 June 2015)

You don't to be chopping, changing and wondering which wave count is in force.  Agreed social mood and waves of optimism and pessimism go hand in hand to some degree, but how do you measure this???  The only measures of investor confidence are specialized sites that take surveys such as Investors intelligence and even the put/call ratio. 

EWI uses such information to back their wave counts. But they have a problem, extreme pessimism or optimism can stay extreme for a very long time, years in fact. This is not an accurate basis for taking trades.

How high is too high, and how low is too low a price?
In the case of TLS I didn't trade it because I don't follow it. But from the attached weekly cycles chart it's not hard to see that price action reached an extreme ( ie upper 2nd and 3rd std deviation excursion from the pink nominal trend level) and upward trend was at risk of ending. As can be seen throughout the history of TLS when such level is reached, a pullback to the pink nominal line at a minimum starts or even to the lower 3rd std deviation. So when price reaches this extreme either up or down it only has a very small probability of maintaining such levels without at least a reversion to nominal levels first. Looks like TLS has further to fall.


----------



## gartley (7 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> Here you go, please (chart from my earlier post about TLS).




By the way Rimtas. I think you have done a great job of numbering this chart and this particular count I would have labelled the same as you but ofcourse it varies from practioner. I like to see the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 followed be the point of recogntion 3rd wave. That's the way i was taught by EWI many years ago))))  I think every subdivison needs to accounted for to do this objectively.


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## rimtas (7 June 2015)

gartley said:


> .  Agreed social mood and waves of optimism and pessimism go hand in hand to some degree, but how do you measure this???  .





Sentiment is hard to measure. There are Surveys as you noticed and Daily Sentiment Index data(costing thousands $ from Trade futures.com), but apart from this you can just be a good observer and capture a good articles in the media, "shows" on the Business TV in a related manner, read forums what everyone is thinking and so on. Internet is a some sort of a mirror of Sentiment, which waxes and wanes along with the price of a stock or Index. Just  have a feel of it and compare to the past.

As an example just last year in November I was in Telstra store to enquire about one product that I was interested in. And just out of curiosity I asked a consultant how business is going and is it a good time to Buy Telstra shares.
 And he extoled that YES, now is the BEST time to BUY. That was an alarm bell for me, as when the average guy that doesn't know much about stock market makes such a recommendation, is a clear sign that the optimism towards the stock and the company reached deep into the non-professional layer of "investors", which is the sign of a mature trend.  
Later I also saw on a Business News where one pensioner was exiting to have TLS shares and how he planned his bright retirement while seeing TLS rise 1-2 % each day. But the stock toped much later. 

  So the sentiment is not a precise timing tool. What it does tell you, though, is that the bulk of the advance from the $2,55 low back in 2010 is already in place.  Wave counts agree with that, momentum signature agrees with that… This was the time when you should be expecting everyone to climb aboard the trend, and I was  seeing strong signs of that, too.
 There is a reason why extreme sentiment signals a turning point: First the trend gets popular, then it becomes too popular, then there is no one left to buy (or sell). 
Put differently, you can have an extreme sentiment without an immediate reversal, but you almost never see a reversal without extreme sentiment.

 But the markets are doing what they are supposed to be doing: inflicting the most pain on the most number of people. The majority always gets caught on the wrong side at big reversals. Always. For me, the news of the public piling into a trend is another snapshot of the market sentiment. That’s useful information. Markets fool the most number of people at the most unexpected moments, but by tracking sentiment -- and the news -- you can prepare yourself.

What separates Elliott wave fans from the rest of the public is that the public has no basis for determining when the trend may be over. In fact, the longer the trend continues, the more people join in -- and the more committed they become.

So again, Wave Principle is the key to understanding Sentiment Extremes.


----------



## gartley (8 June 2015)

There is a very good book written in the 1950's called "The Art Of Contrarian Thinking".  It not only focuses on the financial markets but also politics and all sort of trends.

These sort of sentiment measures where around way before Prechter came onto the scene.

I agree about the opinion of the average man out on the street. Personally I never follow the financial media although I agree it can help you with your analysis.

For me all one needs is the price chart. If their buying prices are going up and if they are selling prices are going down


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## Triathlete (8 June 2015)

craft said:


> Would take a turn around in current financial suppression environment IMO.  The TLS business is pretty stable ATM and price is more a result of the discount rate applied than anything else. It could be regarded as expensive on an absolute basis but not relative to other reasonably stable yields available.
> 
> On a relative basis to the XAO nothing in duration or depth out of the ordinary here.
> 
> ...




Hey Craft...Like the video brought back memories of my own surfing safaris in my younger days......To now get back on this TLS thread I prefer making money from *WAVES* these days its better for my back pocket!!


----------



## craft (8 June 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Hey Craft...Like the video brought back memories of my own surfing safaris in my younger days......To now get back on this TLS thread I prefer making money from *WAVES* these days its better for my back pocket!!




The mental challenge of the market is great but preferable to the adrenalin of taking off on something like shippys – I dunno about that.

Unfortunately this video tends to bring back more memories for me. 



So how do you make money from waves in the market?


----------



## Triathlete (8 June 2015)

craft said:


> The mental challenge of the market is great but preferable to the adrenalin of taking off on something like shippys – I dunno about that.
> 
> Unfortunately this video tends to bring back more memories for me.
> 
> ...




I use price analysis, time analysis and *ELLIOT WAVES*


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## craft (8 June 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I use price analysis, time analysis and *ELLIOT WAVES*




So how do the three of them make you money?


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## Triathlete (8 June 2015)

craft said:


> So how do the three of them make you money?




Sent you a PM....Check your inbox.


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## craft (8 June 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Sent you a PM....Check your inbox.




Thanks triathlete. 

You probably should post the pm rather then just wasting it on me. – others may appreciate it. 

In relation to the question of how does it make money – is it fair to summarise your post as answering high probability prediction of future price?


----------



## Triathlete (9 June 2015)

craft said:


> Thanks triathlete.
> 
> You probably should post the pm rather then just wasting it on me. – others may appreciate it.
> 
> In relation to the question of how does it make money – is it fair to summarise your post as answering high probability prediction of future price?




Yes that is how I would summarise it...

I like to work out where price is today and where it is likely to move  in the future using the technicals although I really only trade stocks that also have strong fundamentals. 

Working out what a stock is likely to do is your biggest benefit to being successful in the long run. My experience tells me that just picking stocks on fundamentals without using technicals to back it up does not give you the best returns.(in my case anyway)

I used to be only a fundamental investor, buy and hold, dollar cost averaging into stocks based on fundamentals  etc,etc,etc but have found that adding the technicals also gives you much better returns overall* if you really understand what to do with the technicals and what to look for to give you your edge.*

 I would also add that just because I may get a signal to buy I might not actually take a trade unless I see say 15% upside minimum that is why I make up my price charts to find the strongest areas of the stock to help me make that decision.

Any time I trade I will always have two views ...one on the upside (best case scenario) and one on the downside ( worst case scenario) or vica versa depending if we are trading long or short. Knowing this gives me the confidence in my trading so I am ready if things go against me ( not often though)  I then know what I am going to do with my trade.

If you do not have an idea of which way your stock is going to move then really you are just gambling with your money. IMO

Cheers
Triathlete


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## craft (9 June 2015)

> is it fair to summarise your post as answering high probability prediction of future price?





Triathlete said:


> Yes that is how I would summarise it...




So the answer to Muschu's question would be that you know?  



Muschu said:


> [Does anyone on ASF REALLY know where the market is heading?




My problem is I don't think anybody can predict the future.  We are not dealing with laws of nature that can be extrapolated robustly into the future and historical correlation says nothing about future causation. 

Having a story that gives you confidence to enter a position and something to monitor reality against as it unfolds is necessary - but if we can't know the future we better acknowledge the fact our story is fiction and any basis for predictive probability is tenuous. Rather then trying to make more accurate predictions with more and more complex analysis we should deal with the uncertainty accordingly. My stories are around value drivers for companies, because I 'believe' they have the most robust predictive foundation for the time frame I'm interested in - but I'm acutely aware that my bull**** stories around value drivers of a businesses future are fiction in the present. I can't perfect the prediction of the unknowable - but I can manage the uncertainty.

Obviously its each to their own in this game but I still reckon waves are best for surfing.


----------



## rimtas (9 June 2015)

Ok, let's leave those who think they can't predict future prices aside and look into the short term TLS waves (ripples). 

Based on the current price movement from Wave 2 top( in May of $6,42) TLS has declined in three waves, so most likely it won't produce the big wave down yet. Pro surfers can pack their boars and get a coffee.  But those who just started to learn surfing can switch to the smaller time frames-waves here are huge, just right for jump on jump off(the board). 
There could be a good chance that a small Leading Diagonal  can be at works, that will touch Impulsive Channel Lines multiple times before penetrating them, creating a wake up call for Pro Surfers that they were waiting for. Novice surfers will be washed out by the cunami wave that comes later, carrying prices towards $5.20.

Key level to watch on the horizon is $5.70-5.80-it can produce Point Of Recognition.
 If the skies get clear, there could be no storm. But there appears that clouds are getting darker each day. Well probably depends on the wind. Don't forget your sunglasses, it's Australia.


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## Muschu (9 June 2015)

No disrespect..... But there is so much hindsight here and, looking forward, 2 bob each way in predicting and self-protecting those predictions.... 

Then there are the semantics of one form of TA versus another, or multiple others.

If anyone can predict and reduce risk then how much certainly, or uncertainty, is attached?

Surely if any of us were absolutely great at this then billionaire status would be a given result.

Mind you I am older and less interested in risk (less time for it I guess)..  It's probably a good thing for younger people to take a relatively educated, controlled and modest punt (although the criteria around being " market educated" seem to be variously interpreted)... 

But doesn't it remain a "punt" and about trying to reduce the odds?  

If you are a higher risk player... Very different scenario.

As for TLS... I don't know where it may be in a month or so.  Meantime, in my SMSF, it has been better than solid.


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## rimtas (10 June 2015)

Muschu said:


> No disrespect.....
> 
> Meantime, in my SMSF, it has been better than solid.





No disrespect...
But I found valuable only the sentence above. I shows a great confidence towards the future based on past prices. 
5 years ago the words "solid in my SMSF" would have been like a joke.

And my post above was a response to the surfing topic, with a dose of water


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## Triathlete (10 June 2015)

craft said:


> My problem is I don't think anybody can predict the future.




Your right Craft....not with absolute certainly..

However on some stock charts and using technicals I have a pretty good idea of which way a stock is likely to move and therefore have the *odds in my favour rather than the markets.*I know we are getting off the thread!! but the example below...

 Two charts in particular were the *WOW*, and *CBA charts*. Go back and take a look as to what was said months before it happened .

The technicals were showing that *WOW*  was heading lower

I remember some ASF members were saying at the time the price was going to go back up in(*wow*) based on fundamentals and probably more hope than anything since they were probably holding the stock.

 Yet the stock kept falling and still is today. 
We might be getting closer to a bottom now...time will tell.

 Look at the *CBA* chart I mentioned at $83 that it was looking at going to $100 and was marked on that chart at where to buy it months before it happened as well it got to $96 and we received a signal to get out at $94 which I did...so *another profitable trade *for me anyway....

Some may not believe in technicals but for me it helps to put the odds in my favour.

As to the market and I have only had a quick look on the monthly chart..It has been on a wave 3 and reached a minimum 100% so the current pullback is in line with EW.  

 The market could go anywhere from 25% to 61.8% retracement  again nothing is certain but at least I have an idea as to what is likely to happen and am prepared for that scenario at present.

Once this completes than we should start to see the market move higher . If this was indeed a wave 3 then I would expect the 5th wave to rise between 162% and 262% over the next number of years how long that will take is unknown but on my chart presently that is what I expect.

Cheers
Triathlete


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## Muschu (10 June 2015)

rimtas said:


> No disrespect...
> But I found valuable only the sentence above. I shows a great confidence towards the future based on past prices.
> 5 years ago the words "solid in my SMSF" would have been like a joke.
> 
> And my post above was a response to the surfing topic, with a dose of water




I was not referring to any single post made by any single poster.

I also do not doubt the sincerity of many analysts.

I do wonder,  if analysts of any particular conviction are so skillled at what they do,  how many of them are now people of exceptional wealth.

"Solid in my SMSF"? My portfolio has varied over the years and, at times over the past 8 years, has been totally cash.


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## Muschu (10 June 2015)

For interest I just checked.  

I first bought TLS 4 years ago under $3.  I have added since then and now have an average purchase price of $4.01.

Where will it go from here?  I don't know.


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## Triathlete (13 June 2015)

Muschu said:


> I also do not doubt the sincerity of many analysts.
> 
> I do wonder,  if analysts of any particular conviction are so skillled at what they do,  how many of them are now people of exceptional wealth.




I think the question should be....

 "How many of these analyst / technicians are now generating greater than the average returns of the market due to there knowledge of the market and there skill level to generate and above market return."

So if the average has been 8% over the very long term and they are generating greater than 20% in there personal portfolios then it will still take many years to achieve exceptional wealth even starting with a 100K portfolio and without leverage.

Or if we look at it another way....

If the market returns 20% in a year and the analyst/technician returns 40%
then there returns would be classified as exceptional and a very skilled technician of the market.


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## Muschu (13 June 2015)

Triathlete said:


> I think the question should be....
> 
> "How many of these analyst / technicians are now generating greater than the average returns of the market due to there knowledge of the market and there skill level to generate and above market return."
> 
> ...





That's a fair point Triathlete.  Thank you.  I hope some posters have done this well.

And, if I may add, when I said "With respect" I meant it.  I have been around too long to play word games.


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## rimtas (29 June 2015)

Based on Telco's Index XTJ, Telstra can be labelled the same as Index, which Is a nice looking Leading Diagonal. 
Though the most recent rise from $5.95 to $6.34 took just two weeks and looks a bit short in terms of time in order to correct 5 mo decline, but it corrected 50% of it, which can be considered as enough.  Maybe it will squeak another wave to $6.44 producing a better looking wave and give the last chance for folks to exit near highs, but chances that the third wave is starting, are high.

The drop below $5.95 will confirm that "fast and furious" selling is starting, that will carry prices right to $5.00 area in a relatively short time, giving everyone a realization that no matter how strong fundamentally company is, it's share price is still at the mercy of the market mood.


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## CanOz (29 June 2015)

I wouldn't mind owning a bit of the ole Telstra, whats the dividend at 6 bucks?


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## notting (9 July 2015)

It's a very long view.
But worth noting -


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## PinguPingu (13 August 2015)

Mixed result, but decent divvie. Looks like some dip buyers coming in for the yield.


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## Toyota Lexcen (13 August 2015)

reasonable effort by TLS

as life rolls on I cannot see any other company providing the internet, data and mobile service that they offer and this will slowly equate to a better valuation for shareholders

the contracts they get which involve the supply and management of big data networks to government and large corporations will be a good contributor as well I feel


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## So_Cynical (13 August 2015)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> as life rolls on *I cannot see any other company providing the internet, data and mobile service that they offer* and this will slowly equate to a better valuation for shareholders




The problem with being number 1 is staying there, maintaining market share while the lower cost competitors chip away at you, the NBN provides a level playing field of sorts, EVERY other telco provides what telstra does at a lower price with less or similar service.



Toyota Lexcen said:


> the contracts they get which involve the supply and management of big data networks to government and large corporations will be a good contributor as well I feel




Maquarie do a lot of the data services to govt depts, The recent Amcom Vocus merger will help Vocus chip away at the corporate market...the game has changed a bit for Telstra, mobile they are still dominant but again when your number 1 it's hard to get growth.


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## Knobby22 (14 August 2015)

I sold mine a few months ago. if I still held I would be looking to sell on any upturn. This company has peaked.


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## rimtas (21 August 2015)

TLS has a nice three wave correction (up) and now is poised to break may-Jun bottom and decline towards $5.


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## Muschu (26 August 2015)

rimtas said:


> TLS has a nice three wave correction (up) and now is poised to break may-Jun bottom and decline towards $5.
> 
> 
> View attachment 63951




Any further thoughts on this one Rimtas?  I appreciate your contributions.


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## MrBurns (26 August 2015)

rimtas said:


> TLS has a nice three wave correction (up) and now is poised to break may-Jun bottom and decline towards $5.




Time to buy then ? Yes I know you roll the dice and take your chances


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## Triathlete (27 August 2015)

Looking at my own weekly chart and price tables.I would expect TLS to hold around $5.70 currently on a EW C.

If this price does not hold then it could come back all the way to $4.50 over time.

I will post a chart in the next day or so of my analysis.


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## Triathlete (27 August 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Looking at my own weekly chart and price tables.I would expect TLS to hold around $5.70 currently on a EW C.
> 
> If this price does not hold then it could come back all the way to $4.50 over time.
> 
> I will post a chart in the next day or so of my analysis.





My current  view on Telstra, weekly chart.....Any other views???


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## Muschu (27 August 2015)

Triathlete said:


> My current  view on Telstra, weekly chart.....Any other views???
> 
> 
> View attachment 64061




I'm no chartist TriA and wish I could contribute more in that area.  Telstra has been a pretty good investment for both growth and dividends in recent times.  I am semi-retired and TLS is in my portfolio.  I recently decreased my holdings in case the SP headed south as several analysts have suggested it may.
That doesn't really appear to have happened yet, apart from the XD response.  It may decline of course - or not.
However I am interested in the probabilities from here.... So far diminishing my hold has proven expensive...


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## rimtas (27 August 2015)

I hold a firm view that TLS is poised to decline to 2010 bottom of 2.54. This could happen either until Jul 2016, or until 2022-23, where only Wave (A) bottoms out in 2016.
 I am not a financial advisor, but waves suggest that if there is a rebound till 6.20 in the coming days/weeks, which is highly probable, take the last chance to get out. Back tests from below the channel comes more often than not, so I expect this to happen. 

 TLS is overbought, over believed and all TLS shareholders share the same dream. Alarm is ringing, and when it stops, all dreamers awake. Then there will be too late to hope for a dream to continue.


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## tinhat (27 August 2015)

rimtas said:


> I am not a financial advisor, but waves suggest that if there is a rebound till 6.20 in the coming days/weeks, which is highly probable, take the last chance to get out.




Then, perhaps you shouldn't be giving out financial advice.


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## Triathlete (27 August 2015)

Muschu said:


> I'm no chartist TriA and wish I could contribute more in that area.  Telstra has been a pretty good investment for both growth and dividends in recent times.  I am semi-retired and TLS is in my portfolio.  I recently decreased my holdings in case the SP headed south as several analysts have suggested it may.
> That doesn't really appear to have happened yet, apart from the XD response.  It may decline of course - or not.
> *However I am interested in the probabilities from here*.... So far diminishing my hold has proven expensive...





I agree with you on knowing the likely probabilities......and whether you are able to get them in your favour or not before you invest or trade..

I also like to trade on...* "what I know and see and not what I think"*

Here is another chart on TLS this time it is based on a longer term view using a monthly chart.


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## Muschu (28 August 2015)

Really interesting and much appreciated.... Might watch for a little while yet..


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## rimtas (2 September 2015)

Short term traders must look tomorrow for a bottom of this decline from ~6.50.


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## CanOz (2 September 2015)

Two stops to go, maybe 5.00 will be a good bargain! Got some powder dry for these guys.....


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## rimtas (8 September 2015)

rimtas said:


> Short term traders must look tomorrow for a bottom of this decline from ~6.50.




Next day we had a bottom at $5.53, since then series 1's and 2's started to develop. I am looking for a correction towards $6, maybe even put my own money if confirmation develops( as 5) in the next few  days.


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## MrBurns (19 October 2015)

Just loaded up on TLS long term should be ok and they are at a low at the moment.


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## skcots (19 October 2015)

What was your reason for buying today?
I would have thought a yearly low would be a reason not to take any new positions yet.


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## MrBurns (19 October 2015)

I'm not a sophisticated investor
I just saw they were down and thought I might as well have it in TLS than sitting in the bank
I'm prepared for more volatility but will be holding long term.


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## skcots (19 October 2015)

Fair enough. I can see the value of the dividend over the bank.


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## sptrawler (19 October 2015)

MrBurns said:


> I'm not a sophisticated investor
> I just saw they were down and thought I might as well have it in TLS than sitting in the bank
> I'm prepared for more volatility but will be holding long term.




I agree with your sentiments, but I just can't get my head around, where Telstra will get the money to support the dividend as the NBN rolls out.

I do have a holding in them, but can't see the benifit in adding to them, maybe someone can enlighten me.:1zhelp:


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## MrBurns (19 October 2015)

I hope their foray into Asia will keep the growth going apart from that I employ the strategy of fingers crossed


----------



## UMike (20 October 2015)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with your sentiments, but I just can't get my head around, where Telstra will get the money to support the dividend as the NBN rolls out.
> 
> I do have a holding in them, but can't see the benifit in adding to them, maybe someone can enlighten me.:1zhelp:




I read ya.

I sold alot of them at the $6.50 mark but struggled with that decision. However, buying half of that lot back (even though I missed out on 2 dividends) makes sense as I think they will be a great long term investment. Even with the NBN.

Bottom picking quality stocks atm is a valid stratagy imo.


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## Ves (20 October 2015)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with your sentiments, but I just can't get my head around, where Telstra will get the money to support the dividend as the NBN rolls out.



Can you please expand on this?  

It seems you are predicting that Telstra might be less profitable once the NBN rolls out (hence a lower dividend).  What are the reasons you think might be behind this?


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## Porper (20 October 2015)

Quite a bit of negativity around for TLS but the patterns suggest a bounce will kick in now. A push down through 5.25 means I am wrong. I'll post a chart when I have some time.


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## Porper (23 October 2015)

Porper said:


> Quite a bit of negativity around for TLS but the patterns suggest a bounce will kick in now. A push down through 5.25 means I am wrong. I'll post a chart when I have some time.




Chart attached. A few things advocating a bounce.

1. Bullish divergence has triggered.
2. 5 wave move down within wave-C
3. Hit 1.618 projection and reversed.
4. Volume increased at lows.

If $5.25 fails to hold then the patterns change for the worse...a lot worse. Also more applicable to U.S markets... but the 200 day moving average has been very significant on this chart. May well now act as resistance on the way up.

I hold TLS.


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## rnr (23 October 2015)

> I hold TLS.




Porper, if you don't mind me asking, are you trading (i.e. Holding purchased since 19/10/2015) or are you a long term holder of TLS shares? No sinister reason for asking, but if trading then I would like to ask some further questions.

Cheers
Rob


----------



## Porper (23 October 2015)

rnr said:


> Porper, if you don't mind me asking, are you trading (i.e. Holding purchased since 19/10/2015) or are you a long term holder of TLS shares? No sinister reason for asking, but if trading then I would like to ask some further questions.
> 
> Cheers
> Rob




Hi Rob, just a swing trade at the moment. However I don't tend to take profits at set targets...just tighten stops.


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## rnr (23 October 2015)

Porper said:


> Hi Rob, just a swing trade at the moment. However I don't tend to take profits at set targets...just tighten stops.





Hi Porper, thanks for responding and, as per my initial reply, another question if I may.

Do you enter a swing trade, long or short, if your wave count and divergence are evident on same bar (i.e. look for a bearish trade following wave B in August of this year)?


----------



## Porper (23 October 2015)

rnr said:


> Hi Porper, thanks for responding and, as per my initial reply, another question if I may.
> 
> Do you enter a swing trade, long or short, if your wave count and divergence are evident on same bar (i.e. look for a bearish trade following wave B in August of this year)?




Yes, that is a good example (wave B high). However you'll rarely pick the exact high/low as divergence needs to trigger as a confirming factor before initiating a position. In that example you'd have shorted on the 5th of August. I didn't as wave B could only be labelled after the event as it pushed through the 61.8% retracement level.

At the recent low the divergence triggered on Tuesday so a nice low risk entry. For me that's a very important aspect of a trade.


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## CanOz (23 October 2015)

Nice Porper, the volume profile has some confluence with your target


----------



## Porper (23 October 2015)

CanOz said:


> Nice Porper, the volume profile has some confluence with your target




Great, the more confluence the better CanOz. Doesn't guarantee anything but provides an edge i.m.o.


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## sptrawler (26 October 2015)

Ves said:


> Can you please expand on this?
> 
> It seems you are predicting that Telstra might be less profitable once the NBN rolls out (hence a lower dividend).  What are the reasons you think might be behind this?




The only reason I think they may be less profitable, in the long term, is they end up being an on seller of internet access same as everyone else.

The difference being, they do receive ongoing lease payments for backbone access.

I personally don't think, this will end up being enough to support, the current dividend payout ratio. I could be wrong, have been on heaps of occasions.

But what is their current earning per share? $0.34c and their current dividend $0.30c that isn't much margin.IMO

It isn't a problem when you bought them at $3, but it does expose the gonads, if you bought them at $6.

That is unless you can see a blinding flash of light, where they are going to obtain growth, rather than lose customers.

I always thought Telstra should have made a move on a free to air broadcaster, and built a broader footprint, much earlier.

Poking around and throwing away money in O/S countries, to supply what they already had, seemed fraught with danger.

Untill they come up with something, that is going to make everyone chose them, over Iprimus, Dodo, Optus,Virgin and so on. I can't see where the growth is going to come from, to support the P/E's of the banks etc.

Like i always say, it's only my take and I don't drive a porsche or live in a McMansion, so I'm no guru.


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## Ves (26 October 2015)

That's all fair enough,  if the communications industry  (internet / mobile / data etc.) became increasingly commoditised in Australia,   then my thinking would be that a lower cost base through larger scale than the competition would be a potential saving grace for Telstra.  That all depends on them holding a leading share of the market of course.

Also;  my understanding is that the government (don't recall which one,  but probably both) made a bit of a dog's breakfast of the NBN competition laws,  and there were a few loopholes open for Telstra,  Optus and especially TPG to exploit through Fibre to the Basement.  Not sure what this does in terms of profits going forward.

All 3 seem to hold separate non-NBN infrastructure too,  which could potentially be leveraged.


----------



## Calvin27 (26 October 2015)

I find it strange there is so much weight on the NBN for TLS. My holdings are more to do with the dominant nature of it's wireless networks. They've had the best network for years and I've been waiting for the competition to catch up but it hasn't happened yet. When eve n the likes of vodafone can make a dent in the market, it sounds like a solid long term play until at least the next mobile tech comes along.


----------



## Bill M (26 October 2015)

Talking about the NBN and Telstra, don't worry, Telstra is as aggressive as any other company in trying to get customers. Today at my local mall, there was this huge multicoloured Telstra Publicity van with balloons all over it inviting locals to talk to them about the NBN. There were quite a few people lined up there. I would have gone over too, it's just that I checked a couple of days ago and my suburb is still not connected.

I agree that their wireless GSM, 3G and 4G networks are second to none. Also where I live, there is a lot of building going on, each new suburb seems to getting the NBN infrastructure in. Admittedly any company can compete for the NBN business but Telstra seems to be doing more than any company trying to get customers to sign up.

Whether I would buy their shares is another matter. I've held in the past but not now.


----------



## sptrawler (27 October 2015)

Calvin27 said:


> I find it strange there is so much weight on the NBN for TLS. My holdings are more to do with the dominant nature of it's wireless networks. They've had the best network for years and I've been waiting for the competition to catch up but it hasn't happened yet. When eve n the likes of vodafone can make a dent in the market, it sounds like a solid long term play until at least the next mobile tech comes along.




About 90% of Australians, live in the cities, which most of the competitors cover at a cheaper price.

With the NBN, the competitors will be paying the same price as Telstra for access, so Telstra's piggy back payment will fall. It will be compensated, but longer term the return falls.

With regard wireless, Telstra will probably always remain dominant IMO. 
Because the competition won't spend the capital required, to compete for the minimal return of capital, in regional areas.

Sad and not good for Australia or Telstra, but I can't see regional reception, supporting Telstras dividend long term.

The best thing they have done IMO is get a part of TEN, makes much more sense, they should have bought it outright years go.
Then integrated free to air, with regional mobile access.
From this they could have integrated travel channels, for tourists, gps location on t.v, all sorts of consumer intergrated apps.
Typical lack of vision, from Telstra.IMO


----------



## alonso (28 October 2015)

Yes, there is a question of fairness when Telstra does the job for the whole country and the competition picks bits out of the cream
Maybe it's time all of them had to contribute to a fund to subsidise rural networks. Perhaps this happens already, I don't know.


----------



## boofhead (28 October 2015)

Don't forget Telstra has lots of POI and in some areas no competition.


----------



## Triathlete (15 November 2015)

Triathlete said:


> View attachment 64061




Following on from my previous analysis on Telstra, we can see that the stock did not hold at $5.75 and has moved to my next price level of $5.15.We are now getting into some interesting price ranges.

Looking at my monthly chart (THE ONE ABOVE IS THE WEEKLY CHART )which is a longer term view the next price levels to look at will be $4.90,then
$4.60 which is a very important level as it is the 50% level of the All Time High which was already mentioned previously and if gets here and does not hold then $4.15 is certainly a possibility in a long range forecast.

The daily, weekly and monthly swings are all down so interesting times ahead for TLS in my view.


----------



## shouldaindex (15 November 2015)

Some interesting areas there.

TLS seems like a very consistant earner, so any major changes in SP will be valuation or macro related.

Unbelievable how it's doubled with very similar earnings, the yield / NBN narrative got squeezed for everything it was worth up to $6.75!

$4 with 35c EPS doesn't make sense, so will probably take a macro recession / crisis.  
$4.50 with a -20% Dow Jones re-valuation with some fear around the macro.
$5 a possibility in current environment.

*I've just used rounded supports, instead but similar ranges.

1 concern I have is the earnings makeup of TLS, it's still got declining divisions like Fixed Line and Foxtel, competition from new technologies like Skype/WhatsApp and it's growth divisions such as E-Health make up a tiny %, and Asian expansion would require about 15% ROIC for it to be worthwhile, and that is a tough target.

But it's a lot steadier company than the banks or commodities when there's downside risk in then next couple of years in the economy / markets.


----------



## Wysiwyg (16 November 2015)

I am very much against paying a company recurring income such as line rental so I investigated VOIP or Voice Over Internet Protocol with my ISP. My ISP told me I cannot get VOIP service because Telstra owns the cable to my house and the contract with Telstra and my ISP will not allow such a service.

Bit suspect how consumers have no alternative because Telstra owns the cable.


----------



## Triathlete (16 November 2015)

shouldaindex said:


> Some interesting areas there.
> 
> *TLS seems like a very consistant earner, so any major changes in SP will be valuation or macro related*.
> 
> ...




Like the comments.I am thinking that the stock is getting re-valued.

As you also mentioned about the declining divisions this may be a concern to people so they are getting out after making some nice profits on the way up.

I see lincoln indicators have it valued at $6.18 but EPS is only around 4%.


----------



## Bill M (16 November 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> I am very much against paying a company recurring income such as line rental so I investigated VOIP or Voice Over Internet Protocol with my ISP. My ISP told me I cannot get VOIP service because Telstra owns the cable to my house and the contract with Telstra and my ISP will not allow such a service.
> 
> Bit suspect how consumers have no alternative because Telstra owns the cable.




Similar situation to you, I do not want nor need a fixed land line. I was using wireless for a while but I needed more gigabytes and nothing anyone offered was enough. My suburb finally got connected to the ADSL 2 network. I wanted to go with somebody other than Telstra but I was told that unless I already had a phone line connected they could not do it.

So reluctantly (no choice) I bundled with Telstra and got a home phone line plus ADSL 2 on contract for 2 years. In that 2 years I never used the land line. My 2 years is up shortly and then I can change providers as I already have the phone line connected. 

With iinet I can get a naked ADSL 2 package with 10 times more gigabyte allowance than what I get now plus I can use VOIP with the wireless modem they supply. This will be cheaper as well. Being forced to pay "line rental" when you don't want nor need it is just a waste of money. Telstra should offer a package that doesn't include the unwanted line rental.


----------



## Muschu (15 February 2016)

The SP has been all over the shop lately.... And certainly not having a good day today...

Couldn't be reputation damage could it?


----------



## Triathlete (1 March 2016)

Is Telstra about to go lower????


----------



## Bill M (2 March 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Is Telstra about to go lower????




Of course it will seeing it has just gone X dividend. A lot of holders were hanging on for that precious 15.5c dividend. Give it some time and then take a new look at it further down the track, cheers.


----------



## So_Cynical (2 March 2016)

Triathlete said:


> Is Telstra about to go lower????




Not much talk in Aust about Telstras possible 1 billion dollar Philippines adventure, that could be a price driver.


----------



## Boggo (2 March 2016)

Triathlete, you are pushing a few EW boundaries with that count on the chart above - just my 

Bit of an overreaction to the dividend today, in theory should have devalued each share by approx 20c but its proximity to a low point may have triggered a few stops or a few short entries.

There are other stocks in the same arena, VOC as one example which is coming up to a dividend and is in an uptrend and has the investment attention of both the NAB and CBA recently and these type of companies may be starting to impinge on TLS.

Just from a weekly EW perspective the weekly chart below is a possible scenario ??

Anyway, just my  again !

(click to expand)


----------



## Triathlete (2 March 2016)

Boggo said:


> Triathlete, you are pushing a few EW boundaries with that count on the chart above - just my
> 
> Bit of an overreaction to the dividend today, in theory should have devalued each share by approx 20c but its proximity to a low point may have triggered a few stops or a few short entries.
> 
> ...




Yes dividend would be the cause in drop in price for sure...but It really needs to stay above $4.60 as this is one of the most important levels.

Whichever count we use and I agree with the one you have shown the price targets on both charts match up...

Boggo are you able to put one up using the Monthly chart also, I would like to see how that matches my other chart?


----------



## Boggo (2 March 2016)

Triathlete said:


> ...
> 
> Boggo are you able to put one up using the Monthly chart also, I would like to see how that matches my other chart?




That software will only produce daily or weekly and if I go to either of my other two programs I would have to force a count and it would be similiar to yours which to me is way out of proportion.

Plenty of action around the $5 area at the moment.


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## skcots (2 March 2016)

I don't understand ellliot wave theory so I am just reading the price action as a bearish flag which puts the target down to about $4.29. Lots of support there and the mid point of the previous range trading is about the 50% retracement.

Should have an attractive yield at that price.


----------



## Muschu (2 March 2016)

skcots said:


> I don't understand ellliot wave theory so I am just reading the price action as a bearish flag which puts the target down to about $4.29. Lots of support there and the mid point of the previous range trading is about the 50% retracement.
> 
> Should have an attractive yield at that price.




So attractive I hope it gets nowhere near that price.. 

Holding obviously.


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## Boggo (1 June 2016)

Bit of a follow up from the previous post above. (caution - squiggly stuff  )
It did turn up from the min wave.5 in the link and looks like it is now in wave.4.
In theory it should turn up from this zone with a couple of upside targets when it does.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=93&p=899645&viewfull=1#post899645

(click to expand)


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## UMike (28 June 2016)

I can understand TLS not being sold off.
But to rise like it has the past 2-3 days is unusual for me.


feeling like selling some of it off to invest in speculative shares like banks and Insurance.


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## CanOz (28 June 2016)

UMike said:


> I can understand TLS not being sold off.
> But to rise like it has the past 2-3 days is unusual for me.
> 
> 
> feeling like selling some of it off to invest in speculative shares like banks and Insurance.




Yield...got to be for the yield. The bonds almost banked another rate drop...yield is attractive.


----------



## pixel (28 June 2016)

UMike said:


> I can understand TLS not being sold off.
> But to rise like it has the past 2-3 days is unusual for me.
> 
> 
> feeling like selling some of it off to invest in speculative shares like banks and Insurance.




The cash pulled out of the Banks will need a new home. 
The upcoming dividend, albeit not due for another 2 months, may also attract some buyers. Look what's happening to CZZ in the lead-up to tomorrow's ex-Div.
Not many alternatives left...


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## CanOz (28 June 2016)

pixel said:


> The cash pulled out of the Banks will need a new home. Not many alternatives left...




Telstra is basically a safe haven utility as well....


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## sptrawler (25 August 2016)

What is the general feeling on the Telstra share buyback?

IMO, With such a large dividend component, it appears to be a no brainer, for SMSF in the pension phase.


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## Quant (4 September 2016)

TLS washed after exdiv , in the zone , alerts at 5 and change , no rush but watching for the flush day for a bargain 






quick look at revisions and see earnings revised on report , maybe lower than 5 is doable


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## Quant (28 September 2016)

Quant said:


> TLS washed after exdiv , in the zone , alerts at 5 and change , no rush but watching for the flush day for a bargain
> 
> 
> 
> ...




As Expected and nicely signalled on the flush sub 5


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## Newt (28 September 2016)

Quant, just curious - do you trade the stock or options for this sort of approach?


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## Quant (29 September 2016)

Newt said:


> Quant, just curious - do you trade the stock or options for this sort of approach?




Trade shares but absolutely no reason you couldnt use option on same premise


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## peter2 (3 October 2016)

Telstra off market buyback. 

Well that was a waste of time and effort. The 84% scale back is ridiculous.


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## Newt (3 October 2016)

Quant said:


> Trade shares but absolutely no reason you couldnt use option on same premise




You had me freaking out there for a bit - I still have a cumulative bear/bull indicator programmed 18months ago on my main Amibroker page that started out with separate bull and bear counts in a not dis-similar fashion.  You never know when a little new thing gets your head working exploring ideas.  Thanks for sharing.

Rolling range I'm guessing is something like a cumulative sum of maximum absolute price change over the last 5 days?

(apologies for wandering around on the TLS thread..)


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## Quant (3 October 2016)

Newt said:


> You had me freaking out there for a bit - I still have a cumulative bear/bull indicator programmed 18months ago on my main Amibroker page that started out with separate bull and bear counts in a not dis-similar fashion.  You never know when a little new thing gets your head working exploring ideas.  Thanks for sharing.
> 
> Rolling range I'm guessing is something like a cumulative sum of maximum absolute price change over the last 5 days?
> 
> (apologies for wandering around on the TLS thread..)





Yeah i like the separate counts 

Cant see Rolling count on those but yeah roll count is dynamic 5 day range 

Your not the first guy to have told me about a similar code , its a handy tool to add to collection


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## Newt (4 October 2016)

Cheers Quant.  Most appreciated


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 October 2016)

yeah Foxtel has been looking like a dud for a little while now, things have a got about 3-4yr lifespan at the moment

this will get written off


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## Miner (13 October 2016)

TLS is supposedly a good scrip but the postings are rather low. 
Any way, I think feud at VOC and TPG unknown issue even after a great profit gives TLS a good opportunity.
I personally noticed the service level has increased. Even TLS make a down fal toay I strongly  believe this is one of my maust to have scrip.
Noticed one director spent $28000 to buy prices at a much higher than ruling toay
Disclaimer - I walked the talk and bough few TLS today at $5/04


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## Toyota Lexcen (13 October 2016)

i agree MIner, but this uncertainty about US interest rates, commodities, elections, banking crisis in Australia is driving our market at the moment with Telstra being caught up in it all (alot of top 50 are struggling)

the current bear market doesn't look like clearing up for 5-10 years


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## Klogg (13 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> i agree MIner, but this uncertainty about US interest rates, commodities, elections, banking crisis in Australia is driving our market at the moment with Telstra being caught up in it all (alot of top 50 are struggling)
> 
> the current bear market doesn't look like clearing up for 5-10 years




Err, bear market?


----------



## Boggo (14 October 2016)

Miner said:


> TLS is supposedly a good scrip but the postings are rather low.
> Any way, I think feud at VOC and TPG unknown issue even after a great profit gives TLS a good opportunity.
> *I personally noticed the service level has increased.* Even TLS make a down fal toay I strongly  believe this is one of my maust to have scrip.
> Noticed one director spent $28000 to buy prices at a much higher than ruling toay
> Disclaimer - I walked the talk and bough few TLS today at $5/04




Just got off the phone to a mate just North of Brissy.

His wife is a medic and works from home on the medical 1800 hotline. They have a separate phone line, modem, computer and office etc. all set up by Telstra for the government hotline.

Early last week they went to the NBN and a Telstra tech connected to the home office. That same person does not connect the modem etc, they send someone else to do that.
It was supposed to be finished last week but after a few phone calls they sent a tech out yesterday to fix their phone problem.

They explained that they don't have a phone problem, just need the modem connected (only Telstra has the approved passwords etc) but this guy was not approved to connect it.

More phone calls yesterday and the tech was going to be there between 8am and 10am this morning to connect it.

At 11:00 am Brissy time this morning no sign of anyone arriving and still one less person available to respond to the 1800 line  !!


----------



## notting (14 October 2016)

Customer service and service in general has always been unbearable from Telstra. 
They can't even bill you properly. David Thodey tried to fix it and improved it for a while.
Looks like the old culture is back.


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## Klogg (14 October 2016)

Miner said:


> TLS is supposedly a good scrip but the postings are rather low.
> Any way, I think feud at VOC and TPG unknown issue even after a great profit gives TLS a good opportunity.
> I personally noticed the service level has increased. Even TLS make a down fal toay I strongly  believe this is one of my maust to have scrip.
> Noticed one director spent $28000 to buy prices at a much higher than ruling toay
> Disclaimer - I walked the talk and bough few TLS today at $5/04




Did you happen to read the Chairman's statement that was recently released? They've basically said they have a $2-3bn hole in earnings coming up...  No real plans on how they remedy that from what I can tell.

To add to that, the ACCC have decided to progress further down the regulation path for ADSL services:
http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/608521/accc-rules-continue-adsl-regulation-amid-nbn-rollout/

I must say, the future does not look too bright for Telstra.


----------



## Miner (14 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Did you happen to read the Chairman's statement that was recently released? They've basically said they have a $2-3bn hole in earnings coming up...  No real plans on how they remedy that from what I can tell.
> 
> To add to that, the ACCC have decided to progress further down the regulation path for ADSL services:
> http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/608521/accc-rules-continue-adsl-regulation-amid-nbn-rollout/
> ...




Klogg
I did read the statement from Chairman.
What I have however noticed the improved customer service (even long waiting on phone) from Telstra for last 12 months (thanks to competition and I got 5 G modem and 100 GB bonus  - working great), poor performances from VOC and TPG, Telstra's massive strength of technology/manning and experience, recommendation from Motley Fool (I bought TLS yesterday about 50 cents lesser price however what MF recommended), Market Matters recommendation to buy TLS today.
Some times new CEO and Chairman do provide a gloomy picture with intention to show off how wonderful turnaround they did to get their performance bonus. To me it is  game plan of those figure. Same people will read the figures differently looking every thing good after one year. That could be my cynical observation but technically I am confident on TLS performance for long term meaning in 2018. Made the mistake to sell off TLS after getting them from public offer (like many of us probably did). But technology has changed and so is TLS (things could change once competitors disappear). Optus is pathetic any way.
Current some of the valuations describe TLS is lower priced than its real value. Which has been echoed by Market matters also. 
Sorry for a  long answer to your short question. 

Regards

Extract from Market Matters (within copy right and taken from free email)
" T_elstra (TLS); At current prices TLS trades on a forecast yield of 6.1% plus franking (8.7% gross) based on 31 cps forecasted dividend – which is likely to stay flat until at least FY19 on our numbers. The stock is not overly expensive trading on 14.2 times expected  FY17 earnings, so about a 15% discount to the market.* Surely with these metrics TLS should be a BUY here??
*
The risk as we’ve been highlighting in recent times stems from the artificially inflated earnings courtesy of the* one-off NBN paymen*ts. Although the BIG one off payments seem impressive, it will come down to Telstra’s ability to reinvest those payments, given they lose $2bn-$3bn of re-occurring earnings over the next 3-3.5 years. That said, it seems this is now a very well known-known with the market having digested this over the last few months – hence the weakness in the stock. The reason we say this is that when the market is collectively positioned a certain way as it is with TLS (shown by analysts’ views below) it sets the scene for strong counter trend moves. At some point, TLS will rally hard and we’ll be looking to get set for this when it _happens" .


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Err, bear market?




yes we in  a bear market, April 2015 we almost got 6000, been down to 4800 now stuck between 5000-5500 for quite a few months

TLS got up to 6.70 around april 16 now down to 5.00, its a great company but general uncertainty is impacting the market

I don't believe it will clear up for 5-10 years


----------



## dpgrubesic (15 October 2016)

TLS at very least moderate buy at todays prices

+ Net profit is still growing 

+ It is a industry leader 

+ It is well below its 18 month high 

+ Dividends are 6.2% (in a low interest rate environment) 

I dont think you can expect 15-20% p.a returns but i'd say the Warren Buffet 10%p.a isnt out of the question 

However there are some concerns...

- Rising in long term debt being one 
- Slowing organic growth

I'd say it its a buy at around the $5-5.50 mark, simply put if people start to move away from TLS to cheaper alternatives TLS can just become more price competitive. However TLS is and always will have the best service because of certain advantages. So in short TLS can always get 'cheaper' if they want but competitors (at least in the mid-term) wont be able to match the level/quality of service on offer. Therefore people who need the best phone coverage, best internet have one option.  

In fairness there probably are better Stocks out there but IMO TLS is a safe defensive stock probably better for those needing reliable dividend returns and wanting to sleep well at night.

Note: Im 26 and probably looking at taking a bit more risk but considering everyones super in Australia pretty much has stocks in TSL and the big Banks i thought i'd give me 2cents/

David Out....


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## Miner (15 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> yes we in  a bear market, April 2015 we almost got 6000, been down to 4800 now stuck between 5000-5500 for quite a few months
> 
> TLS got up to 6.70 around april 16 now down to 5.00, its a great company but general uncertainty is impacting the market
> 
> I don't believe it will clear up for 5-10 years



OMG - that is a very brave prediction - 5 to 10 years. What happened to my hard earned money I invested couple of days back to retire safely !!!
Let me enjoy my red now as I can not resell even with 2 % gain over three days


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## Toyota Lexcen (15 October 2016)

yes, a few fund managers have called it a bear market (WAM capital in particular) with view for the market to  improve 2017, many now pushing out expectation of turn around to late 2017, even that is generous

what sort of market are we in? bull market?


----------



## Miner (16 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> yes, a few fund managers have called it a bear market (WAM capital in particular) with view for the market to  improve 2017, many now pushing out expectation of turn around to late 2017, even that is generous
> 
> what sort of market are we in? bull market?




Toyota Lexcen 
Market behaviour tells we are in bear market and probably go another 12 months by experts. But those experts change their colour like Melbourne weather on a day. 

Cheers


----------



## dpgrubesic (16 October 2016)

Miner said:


> Toyota Lexcen
> Market behaviour tells we are in bear market and probably go another 12 months by experts. But those *experts change their colour like Melbourne weather *on a day.
> 
> Cheers





100% correct


----------



## Klogg (17 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> TLS at very least moderate buy at todays prices
> 
> + Net profit is still growing
> 
> ...




Is net profit still growing? Again, there's a $2-3bn hole in EBITDA coming up... That's a little scary given total EBITDA was just over $10bn...

As for the "Warren Buffett 10%p.a."... check Berkshire Hathaway's returns - they're far higher than 10%.


@Miner
Appreciate the response. Just a few things I'd mention:
1) Not sure I'd take the Motley fool's advice on anything. Track record is not great. I know nothing of Market Matters, so I won't comment there.
2) Customer service - sure, this helps. But telecommunications is largely commoditised at the retail level. People will pay less and complain, rather than pay a premium (somewhat similar to airlines) - the device is a different story. And with the recent series of network outages, it'll take a while for Telstra to get that goodwill back.

"But technology has changed and so is TLS"
Technology as a whole has, but for the worse for TLS shareholders. The impact of NBN is not a positive one for Telstra.


----------



## dpgrubesic (17 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Is net profit still growing? Again, there's a $2-3bn hole in EBITDA coming up... That's a little scary given total EBITDA was just over $10bn...
> 
> *As for the "Warren Buffett 10%p.a."... check Berkshire Hathaway's returns - they're far higher than 10%.*
> 
> ...




I wasn't talking about Berkshire i was talking about Buffett investing rule of companies with at least a 10 year history of a average of 10% return. - not saying its my way of investing but he says it all the time 

NBN hasnt been positive  for any telco so far that doesn't mean anything Australia needs it, it has some of the worst telecommunication in the developed world. 

The fact is TLS still has competitive edge and people need telecommunication it is in a no lose situation. However I agree with people saying it is badly managed.

Additionally,nI agree with you when you say dont trust the fools though they have good 'general principles' however in my experience they are far better at marketing then they are at investing.


----------



## Klogg (17 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> I wasn't talking about Berkshire i was talking about Buffett investing rule of companies with at least a 10 year history of a average of 10% return. - not saying its my way of investing but he says it all the time




He actually says this about the business return on what he's paying (and I think it's 13%... but I remember that from a Bruce Greenwald interview). As an example, imagine Telstra had flat revenues and profits from now to eternity. At a price/earnings of 14times (approximate) this would equate to a return of 7.14% - far below the required rate of return he's after.




dpgrubesic said:


> NBN hasnt been positive  for any telco so far that doesn't mean anything Australia needs it, it has some of the worst telecommunication in the developed world.



Agreed, we need it. But the way its structured still required large wholesalers and a larger number of retail service providers. What I don't agree on is the fact that no telco will make money from it. The bandwidth charge (CVC from memory) will just get squeezed until retailers and wholesalers make their margin - meanwhile consumers will have 1/20th of the bandwidth they're paying for.

If there's no change in pricing, I can't see that as a sustainable outcome.




dpgrubesic said:


> The fact is TLS still has competitive edge and people need telecommunication it is in a no lose situation. However I agree with people saying it is badly managed.




This seems to be a very generic statement. Can I ask where their competitive edge will come from? (Please be as specific as possible if you can - I don't do well with broad statements...)




dpgrubesic said:


> Additionally,nI agree with you when you say dont trust the fools though they have good 'general principles' however in my experience they are far better at marketing then they are at investing.



Couldn't agree more.


----------



## craft (17 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Agreed, we need it. But the way its structured still required large wholesalers and a larger number of retail service providers. What I don't agree on is the fact that no telco will make money from it. The bandwidth charge (CVC from memory) will just get squeezed until retailers and wholesalers make their margin - meanwhile consumers will have 1/20th of the bandwidth they're paying for.
> 
> *If there's no change in pricing, I can't see that as a sustainable outcome*.




Who will fold? 
The customer and pay more?
The Telco industry and invest capital at below economic returns just to stay in existence?
The government and lower its pricing for the greater benefits of NBN utilisation to the economy?


General consensus at the moment seems to be that its all bad for the Telco's but I see it a little differently – NBN is is only ever going to be infrastructure, its never going to take on the customer facing role and billing system _(the gov’t is never going to build another integrated type Telstra structure again after having so much trouble separating TLS)_ – That will always be left to the private sector and if they want the private sector to do it – it has to be economically viable.  If the customer is truly price sensitive than I think the gov’t will yield before it makes the customer facing private part of the delivery system unviable (uneconomical).  Be more efficient than average in the industry and you are almost guaranteed better than average economical returns - That’s a better dynamic than most business face.  The important question – in relation to NBN – who is the most efficient retailer on a level cost basis – Don’t think its Telstra at the moment, becoming so is their challenge – I would agree though they are trying to lift their customer service and they can bundle other services for retail better than most.

Still a really interesting Industry to watch. Does it become a cosy four player industry with quasi competition underpinned by Govt having vested interest in the economic private delivery of critical infrastructure, (ala banks) or does competition go cut throat in a land grab for market share before things settle down to quasi competition with only two or three_(don’t think It will ever be allowed to progress to a single winner scenario)_ main players remaining.


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## Klogg (17 October 2016)

craft said:


> General consensus at the moment seems to be that its all bad for the Telco's but I see it a little differently – NBN is is only ever going to be infrastructure, its never going to take on the customer facing role and billing system _(the gov’t is never going to build another integrated type Telstra structure again after having so much trouble separating TLS)_ – *That will always be left to the private sector and if they want the private sector to do it – it has to be economically viable.  If the customer is truly price sensitive than I think the gov’t will yield before it makes the customer facing private part of the delivery system unviable (uneconomical).*  Be more efficient than average in the industry and you are almost guaranteed better than average economical returns - That’s a better dynamic than most business face.  The important question – in relation to NBN – who is the most efficient retailer on a level cost basis – Don’t think its Telstra at the moment, becoming so is their challenge – I would agree though they are trying to lift their customer service and they can bundle other services for retail better than most.




Bolded section is exactly in line with my thinking (or perhaps it's your thinking, just rebranded... ) - couldn't have said it any better myself.




> they can bundle other services for retail better than most




I'm not so sure of this. The big telcos all basically offer the same products now at the retail level. I can't think of a service that Telstra can provide me that the others can't (unless theirs is the only network available).


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## dpgrubesic (17 October 2016)

TLS has the best service being number one gives you the edge over your competitors this is true in any industry 

http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2016/0...g-speeds-but-vodafone-matches-it-on-coverage/

Although others may close the gap they will always lag behind and for a strong portion of the market that is all that matters


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## Ves (17 October 2016)

Am I right in saying that you guys are focusing on the retail (NBN) internet side of things in this discussion?   Surely the mobile phone networks themselves have some future potential for value generation  (well,  they'd want to after all the money Telstra has pumped into them and still continues to pump into them).

One think is for certain,  Telstra is certainly ramping up their infrastructure spend.   The last few years it has been the lowest as a percentage of sales since it first listed.   If I recall the latest presentation states that going forward (ie. next 3 years) this is going back up to 18% of revenue,  don't have the exact figures but in 2016 it was closer to 14-15%.

They specifically stated that they have budgeted a return higher than their current ROIC on these investments.  Whilst it won't make up the 2-3bil EBITDA gap from the NBN transition,  it's entirely feasible that in a world where mobile data transmission is growing at a rate of knots,  they can definitely make some in-roads into this figure.

Not sure how their more expansionary business lines like e-health and even PacNet (underwater data cables I think?) will play out.


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## craft (17 October 2016)

Ves said:


> Am I right in saying that you guys are focusing on the retail (NBN) internet side of things in this discussion?   Surely the mobile phone networks themselves have some future potential for value generation  (well,  they'd want to after all the money Telstra has pumped into them and still continues to pump into them).




Its the retail NBN that I'm talking about - TLS mobile network is an example of the bundling I'm thinking about where they have pre-existing asset and cost advantages.  I suspect TLS is a long way from being the most cost competitive lowest churn reseller of straight NBN but that lack of NBN retail margin is potentially offset in a bundled offering.???


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## Ves (17 October 2016)

craft said:


> Its the retail NBN that I'm talking about - TLS mobile network is an example of the bundling I'm thinking about where they have pre-existing asset and cost advantages.  I suspect TLS is a long way from being the most cost competitive lowest churn reseller of straight NBN but that lack of NBN retail margin is potentially offset in a bundled offering.???



Maybe,  I'm not sure.  Telstra seems to run their services on much higher mark-ups than the competition.

How great is the profitability difference for Telstra between mobile customers contracted to Telstra  and customers that use Telstra's network but are contracted to a reseller?


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## Klogg (17 October 2016)

Ves said:


> Am I right in saying that you guys are focusing on the retail (NBN) internet side of things in this discussion?   Surely the mobile phone networks themselves have some future potential for value generation  (well,  they'd want to after all the money Telstra has pumped into them and still continues to pump into them).
> 
> One think is for certain,  Telstra is certainly ramping up their infrastructure spend.   The last few years it has been the lowest as a percentage of sales since it first listed.   If I recall the latest presentation states that going forward (ie. next 3 years) this is going back up to 18% of revenue,  don't have the exact figures but in 2016 it was closer to 14-15%.
> 
> ...




The mobile networks definitely have a value to them. From my basic knowledge of the mobile networks, I believe Optus and Vodafone are also increasing their investment (SSM and BSA are good proxies for this)

At an extra 3-4% of revenue (lets use 3.5% of $28.5bn) - that's $1bn of investment a year. I'm not familiar with margins on their mobile networks, but to plug a 2-3bn EBITDA hole, they'lll need a lot more than $1bn a year.

And from my knowledge, the other business lines are currently making a loss. I don't know much about it, but Forager have a decent summary on it all:
https://foragerfunds.com/bristlemouth/telstras-looming-earnings-hole/


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## craft (17 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Bolded section is exactly in line with my thinking (or perhaps it's your thinking, just rebranded... ) - couldn't have said it any better myself.




Not sure if its a case of great minds think alike or fools seldom differ




Klogg said:


> I'm not so sure of this. The big telcos all basically offer the same products now at the retail level. I can't think of a service that Telstra can provide me that the others can't (unless theirs is the only network available).




Do they however all have the same cost base for the services they can bundle?


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## craft (17 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> but to plug a 2-3bn EBITDA hole




Is the asset transfers that creates this hole sufficiently unknown to not have been priced in since the original NBN deal was struck and disclosed years ago? 

If its been disclosed why should they be desperate to fill the hole? If EBITDA is down in alignment with the assets sold and return on assets remains the same is it even really a hole?

Is it causation or justification of price movements?

Just ponderings - not really questions.


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## Ves (17 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> At an extra 3-4% of revenue (lets use 3.5% of $28.5bn) - that's $1bn of investment a year. I'm not familiar with margins on their mobile networks, but to plug a 2-3bn EBITDA hole, they'lll need a lot more than $1bn a year.



Don't forget the $1bn a year you have calculated is _additional_ to what they have already been investing!

I had a look and over the last five years EBITDA has been a factor of 1.6 times EBIT on average.

Think their presentation said ROIC was 13-14%.   Say they do beat this,  and achieve 15% on new investments.

Correct me if I am wrong but to plug the 2-3billion EBITDA hole they'd need to invest between 8.33 and 12.5 billion. Obviously less if the returns are better.

That's not small change, but I think they've forecast $5bil in free cash flow next year.  If they're brave (cut the divvie) and use a bit of leverage it's certainly not impossible.

A better question is do they have $12.5 billion worth of investments they can make that would achieve and sustain those returns in the next few years and beyond. And of course are the rest of the earnings outside of the gap sustainable in the face of competition, technological change etc.

If the answer to both of those questions are in the affirmative then even at $8 billion EBITDA run rate this company isn't exactly super expensive. At closer to 2016 EBITDA it's actually pretty cheap.

Unfortunately I haven't been able to answer either of those questions at this point.   I do however, see where the doubt that comes from craft,  yourself and the Forager and others have expressed.


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## Miner (17 October 2016)

dpgrubesic said:


> I wasn't talking about Berkshire i was talking about Buffett investing rule of companies with at least a 10 year history of a average of 10% return. - not saying its my way of investing but he says it all the time
> 
> NBN hasnt been positive  for any telco so far that doesn't mean anything Australia needs it, it has some of the worst telecommunication in the developed world.
> 
> ...






Klogg said:


> Is net profit still growing? Again, there's a $2-3bn hole in EBITDA coming up... That's a little scary given total EBITDA was just over $10bn...
> 
> As for the "Warren Buffett 10%p.a."... check Berkshire Hathaway's returns - they're far higher than 10%.
> 
> ...




Folks
I really appreciate the interactions on Telstra regardless that we do have some common and divergent views . I noticed there are however three common themes:

 1) We are not sure on Telstra value proposition any more and does not seem to be an attractive stock option for many . Yes I bought at $5.04  only couple of weeks back and happy to watch even if with NBN issue.

2) here appear to be an opportunity to have a thread on Motley Fools (I am unfortunately happy to see so many people including me are pxxxd off with their marketing) on ASF same way we have on Phillip Porter Publishing. I know Joe reads (please comment ) each post. If that does not put ASF any trouble (even if it is a free forum), can we have a new thread on MF for all of us to share experience ? 

3) The activities on TLS have gone up in last week which is excellent for keeping ASF kicking 

Regards


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## Klogg (17 October 2016)

craft said:


> Do they however all have the same cost base for the services they can bundle?




Good point - but it looks like this is under threat for copper-based services from the ACCC, although nothing is anywhere near final or even proposed:
https://www.accc.gov.au/regulated-i...olesale-adsl-service-declaration-inquiry-2016


As for mobile - I have some reading to do before I can give a reasonable opinion.


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## craft (17 October 2016)

Ves said:


> Unfortunately I haven't been able to answer either of those questions at this point.   I do however, see where the doubt that comes from craft,  yourself and the Forager and others have expressed.




Just to clarify - I think I'm a lot less pessimistic than the general commentary is at the moment (maybe I didn't express it well) Any rate all of it probably fades into insignificance compared to bond yield outlooks and hence discount rates at this stage for the short to medium term impact on TLS's stock price.


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## Klogg (17 October 2016)

Ves said:


> Correct me if I am wrong but to plug the 2-3billion EBITDA hole they'd need to invest between 8.33 and 12.5 billion. Obviously less if the returns are better.




Great response as always, Ves.

I was under the impression the improved ROIC is only on the additional expenditure, but that makes absolutely no sense. You'd obviously prioritise your investments in terms of prospective returns.

Interested to see how they plan on increasing their ROIC on all of their capex - that's not easy.



> Any rate all of it probably fades into insignificance compared to bond yield outlooks and hence discount rates at this stage for the short to medium term impact on TLS's stock price.




Very true - I keep comparing this with the remainder of my opportunity set. Not everyone has the same opportunity sets for various reasons.


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## Klogg (18 October 2016)

Not sure which thread this question should go in, but I'll ask it here to start...

I'm taking a look at the mobile coverage Telstra has in regional areas (also applies to other mobile providers) and trying to understand the technologies behind it - specifically the backhaul that transports data from the mobile towers to the relevant Point(s) of Presence (PoP).

Is this carried across the same set of copper networks that are used for standard telephone lines/ADSL connections, or is it a separate backhaul? (I ask because I'm wondering if ultimately the NBN could do the same thing for mobile towers)

I'm not 100% sure of the makeup of the network, so this might be a stupid question... If I manage to answer the question myself and it hasn't been answered here, I'll post my findings.

Thanks.


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## Klogg (18 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Not sure which thread this question should go in, but I'll ask it here to start...
> 
> I'm taking a look at the mobile coverage Telstra has in regional areas (also applies to other mobile providers) and trying to understand the technologies behind it - specifically the backhaul that transports data from the mobile towers to the relevant Point(s) of Presence (PoP).
> 
> ...




Well it took a bit of googling, but I think I've found my answer.

For the most part, the answer is yes, but another transmission medium can be used in place of a copper network. It also seems that Vodafone are already using the NBN to provide the backhaul to some of it's mobile towers:
http://www.zdnet.com/article/vodafone-quietly-tests-nbn-co-fibre-for-tower-backhaul/#ftag=RSSaa94ebc

Which is why I was looking at this... Should the NBN pricing change, at what price point does it remove Telstra's mobile network dominance (i.e.  Telstra's services are no longer cheaper to provide). I haven't got the answer yet, but found it interesting that this possibility hasn't been explored very much - or perhaps I just haven't been exposed to it.

From the article linked above:


> Late last month, Vodafone CEO Inaki Berroeta told a Trans-Tasman Circle business lunch that NBN Co fibre to Vodafone's cell tower sites would help bring down the company's costs.




and to give an idea of transmission costs (this is back in 2014, but I doubt it would have changed a whole heap):


> "Vodafone Hutchison Australia would pay close to* 6 percent of revenues on transmission*; this is more than three times what the whole company would pay outside this market. I really want, and I am also watching really closely with NBN Co because this will bring more competition there."




finally:


> "I don't know. You should be asking what NBN Co is doing. As soon as I can use NBN Co for transmission, I will use it," he said at the time




And a more recent article:
http://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-puts-mobile-tower-backhaul-on-fast-track-414271

Some questions that arise:
- Does this mean that NBN that has been rolled out to remote areas will allow other telcos to improve their mobile network coverage without the significant capex spend?
- How does the cost compare to using current backhaul?

More digging required it seems.

I do also wonder if Vocus could provide this same service using their fibre network, given current utilisation rates...
EDIT: Answer to the last question is a yes - http://www.itnews.com.au/news/tpg-to-build-vodafone-dark-fibre-network-409820


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## Klogg (18 October 2016)

Sorry for the flurry of posts...
I meant to link this as an answer to the Vocus question:
http://www.itnews.com.au/news/nextgen-first-with-nbn-wholesale-260472

Hopefully someone else finds that useful.


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## Ves (18 October 2016)

Thanks Klogg,  must admit I had a quick look at this before work after seeing your first post and couldn't find much.

I have a feeling the NBN trial in relation to mobile network backhaul (with Vodafone) have more to do with regional areas than they do metropolitan city areas.  I suspect there's much less competition in those areas because it's very expensive to build the technology (and less scale etc.).  Do Telstra and Optus use a bit of satellite technology for some of those regional areas?

The big cities are probably a different story.  There's literally cables every where owned by all kinds of private companies.  I'm sure there's all kinds of agreements going on between them all too.  It's really hard to get any transparent information about how it all works.

Then there's 5G,   which Telstra is paying a lot of money to get a headstart.  I remember reading they even paid big money to send personnel to get involved in the development / testing overseas.  In some areas the technology is rumoured to trump the NBN too.  

In a way it's like a nuclear arms race at the moment.  Only the big players have the balance sheets to fund it.

EDIT:  And of course,  then the phone carriers need to build towers every where...  and have the technology to transmit all of the different frequencies.  Does my head in.


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## Klogg (18 October 2016)

Ves said:


> Thanks Klogg,  must admit I had a quick look at this before work after seeing your first post and couldn't find much.



Yes, the major players aren't very vocal about it at all... You would think NBN Co would be shouting this from the rooftops, given all the negative press.




Ves said:


> I have a feeling the NBN trial in relation to mobile network backhaul (with Vodafone) have more to do with regional areas than they do metropolitan city areas.  I suspect there's much less competition in those areas because it's very expensive to build the technology (and less scale etc.).




At the moment, yes. But what happens if the NBN becomes the cheaper option for backhaul? As I understand it, NBN charge for bandwidth, whereas the current utilisation is charged based on data usage. I could be wrong though, needs more work on my part.




Ves said:


> Do Telstra and Optus use a bit of satellite technology for some of those regional areas?




From what I've read, the costs are too prohibitive for this to happen. I've only ever seen reference to satelites being used for emergency services or corporate requirements (i.e. where the customer can afford the service).




Ves said:


> Then there's 5G,   which Telstra is paying a lot of money to get a headstart.  I remember reading they even paid big money to send personnel to get involved in the development / testing overseas.  In some areas the technology is rumoured to trump the NBN too.




FWIW - the 20Gbps is the theoretical maximum, but the real speeds will be nowhere near that. I believe 4G LTE is quoted at 100Mbps, but the reality is users achieve about 20Mbps.

I'm just not sure how it can trump the NBN though... It can only go as fast as the backhaul allows. If CVC charges weren't so prohibitive, there's no reason why NBN can't provide this level of service, if not more. From memory, a single strand of fibre can accomodate for 1Tbps (1,000Gbps)... Sure, each consumer won't get this, but imagine what the technological limits (rather than financial limits) are.




Ves said:


> In a way it's like a nuclear arms race at the moment.  Only the big players have the balance sheets to fund it.
> 
> EDIT:  And of course,  then the phone carriers need to build towers every where...  and have the technology to transmit all of the different frequencies.  Does my head in.




Yeah, it's one of those industries where a few big players just makes sense. Unless the government wants to take part in all of the big capex, it must rely on some big private enterprise. What's even more interesting is that there's a huge amount of noise for the retail component (i.e. NBN developments) but the developments in the corporate space don't even get a mention. Anyone who provides dark fibre to corporates should be able to build a nice competitive advantage without any real problems.

As for the frequencies that are sold... they still confuse me a little. I understand that they split of certain bands and auction them, but I don't quite understand the terms... (e.g. is it Aus wide? How long is it for? Do they sub-let it, if so for how much? etc.)

It's all very confusing, but really fascinating!


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## Ves (18 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> At the moment, yes. But what happens if the NBN becomes the cheaper option for backhaul? As I understand it, NBN charge for bandwidth, whereas the current utilisation is charged based on data usage. I could be wrong though, needs more work on my part.



Struggling with this issue a bit.   Say it does become cheaper.   Is NBNCo limited to only building such backhaul that links in to 121 Points of Interconnectivity (POIs) that have already been agreed for the NBN?   Or is this a completely different issue?  Does it need government funding outside of the current NBN budget or if not how does NBNCo fund it?  Do they want to fund it if someone else already is in that area?

Could get messy!  But I can definitely see why you're looking at this.




Klogg said:


> FWIW - the 20Gbps is the theoretical maximum, but the real speeds will be nowhere near that. I believe 4G LTE is quoted at 100Mbps, but the reality is users achieve about 20Mbps.
> 
> I'm just not sure how it can trump the NBN though... It can only go as fast as the backhaul allows. If CVC charges weren't so prohibitive, there's no reason why NBN can't provide this level of service, if not more. From memory, a single strand of fibre can accomodate for 1Tbps (1,000Gbps)... Sure, each consumer won't get this, but imagine what the technological limits (rather than financial limits) are.



Agree,  it is all theoretical.  In reality those maximum speeds won't happen.  But they don't need to happen at the top end,  they just need to be at least equivalent to the NBN speeds  (especially if the retail providers are spreading the bandwidth thin), for it to be a source of competition don't they?  And if they are equivalent,  it'll be interesting to see the cost differentials between NBN and mobile data. Both will obviously be in demand....  but wonder if there's some overlap.




> As for the frequencies that are sold... they still confuse me a little. I understand that they split of certain bands and auction them, but I don't quite understand the terms... (e.g. is it Aus wide? How long is it for? Do they sub-let it, if so for how much? etc.)




I have a feeling that ACMA administer this. 

http://www.acma.gov.au/Industry/Telco/Carriers-and-service-providers/Licensing

I don't know much about it either.  But that looks like a good place to start if you're interested?


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## Klogg (18 October 2016)

Ves said:


> Struggling with this issue a bit.   Say it does become cheaper.   Is NBNCo limited to only building such backhaul that links in to 121 Points of Interconnectivity (POIs) that have already been agreed for the NBN?   Or is this a completely different issue?  Does it need government funding outside of the current NBN budget or if not how does NBNCo fund it?  Do they want to fund it if someone else already is in that area?
> 
> Could get messy!  But I can definitely see why you're looking at this.




My understanding is that it would work much like the one-off setup fee structure provided by NBN to connect to the POI.
NBN currently provide a service to connect the POI to your relevant Access Seeker (wholesaler) Point of Presence - with the charge increasing based on bandwidth and distance. I'd imagine it works the same way, but instead of distributing it from that PoP to the various consumers, it'd feed into the mobile infrastructure/wireless tower.

Given NBN have been testing it for a while now, they must have a plan for a commercially viable model (or something close to it). It's all theoretical though without knowing the costs compared to the existing backhauls.

One of the articles I linked was about TPG running dark fibre to Vodafone's mobile towers from memory. If they're already doing this, fibre must be a viable option

(FWIW - I actually ended up looking at this as a result of craft's comment regarding costs for providing various services in Telstra. A little off-track, but still related. Very informative though).




Ves said:


> Agree,  it is all theoretical.  In reality those maximum speeds won't happen.  But they don't need to happen at the top end,  they just need to be at least equivalent to the NBN speeds  (especially if the retail providers are spreading the bandwidth thin), for it to be a source of competition don't they?  And if they are equivalent,  it'll be interesting to see the cost differentials between NBN and mobile data. Both will obviously be in demand....  but wonder if there's some overlap.




If they end up using the NBN as the backhaul, I don't think it's possible that mobile exceeds NBN speeds for at a competitive price, as the cost would be NBN connection _+ wireless tower/infrastructure_. If they remain on the copper network, then its definitely possible and is really determined by technical limitations of the copper network and costs of using it.




Ves said:


> I have a feeling that ACMA administer this.
> 
> http://www.acma.gov.au/Industry/Telco/Carriers-and-service-providers/Licensing
> 
> I don't know much about it either.  But that looks like a good place to start if you're interested?




Awesome, will start reading. Thanks!


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## Ves (18 October 2016)

This is a case of the more you know the more you realise you actually now for me!

Thanks you're given me some food for thought - I will see what else I can dig up and post here or in VOC if I find something else.


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## Toyota Lexcen (21 October 2016)

struggling to get away from $5, was $6.60 18months ago, close to a 30% fall for TLS in this bear market  

hope the dividend does better


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## Miner (21 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> struggling to get away from $5, was $6.60 18months ago, close to a 30% fall for TLS in this bear market
> 
> hope the dividend does better




I will have patience with TLS . It will not shoot up with steroid or shoot down. Consistency will pay and my look out is dividend and wait until March 2017. Lot of drama with submarine cabling to Singapore and 5 G will unfold to put TLS in box seat. VOC drama without the founders will enable a clear direction .


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## galumay (21 October 2016)

picking a few points up... mobile services dont have to use NBN backhaul, there are various fibre backhaul providers, Telstra would have enough of their own fibre backhaul for their mobile network. I dont know Telstra's costs but their pricing for mobile data has always been multiples more expensive than fixed broadband, I assume its not just daylight robbery and the fixed costs are much higher. The potenial reduction in CVC charges still doensnt help that much - at $10 its still $1000 per month in CVC charges to provide the plan I am paying for - 100/40mbps, unlimited.

There are still issues with mobile, latency, pings etc that make it problematic as a straight alternative for fixed fibre, but I dont imagine they are insurmoutable.

The other point is that Australia's fibre model is horribly hamstrung by the chosen infrastructure at either end, the potenial for fibre is much faster than anything mobile can provide. (as peer countries like South Korea.)


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## Klogg (21 October 2016)

galumay said:


> picking a few points up... mobile services dont have to use NBN backhaul, there are various fibre backhaul providers, Telstra would have enough of their own fibre backhaul for their mobile network.



Yeah, makes sense that Telstra would use their own. Just curious if it could allow others to extend their mobile networks to regional areas. Not sure of the distance though from the POI to various required mobile towers.



galumay said:


> The potenial reduction in CVC charges still doensnt help that much - at $10 its still $1000 per month in CVC charges to provide the plan I am paying for - 100/40mbps, unlimited.



It won't provide you with the full bandwidth 24/7... but I'm guessing your internet plan now doesn't either. At that price, contention ratios may be within the realm of useful.


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## galumay (22 October 2016)

Klogg said:


> Yeah, makes sense that Telstra would use their own. Just curious if it could allow others to extend their mobile networks to regional areas. Not sure of the distance though from the POI to various required mobile towers.
> 
> It won't provide you with the full bandwidth 24/7... but I'm guessing your internet plan now doesn't either. At that price, contention ratios may be within the realm of useful.




On the first point, I don't think so, given that the fibre backhaul already exists, and did prior to the 'creaction' of the POI's. The issue is the towers (or access to them), without them, no reception. Telstra received massive injections of public money to build it's mobile network and that along with its high pricing, is what allowed it to build coverage to such a high % of the population and geographic area. 

I take your point about contention ratios, and yes a reduction to $10 would potentially make a significant change to the contention ratios that RSP's were forced to run - if the RSPs didn't just use it to improve their margins! 

The squeeze will come if the ACCC comes to the conclusion that the current model needs regulation because RSP's are simply not providing anything like what they are promoting. Its a catch 22 for the NBN, Government and the RSP's - the whole conversion of people to NBN relies on it being accepted that NBN is faster and more stable than ADSL2+, but each one of the parties wants it to be profitable from the start. 

Its interesting to observe from my location, because our town has FTTH and as a very remote location we have a dedicated fibre backhaul that has a massive surplus of capacity, direct to the Darwin POI, any congestion is immediately obvious and because my business is the only install contractor and the only IT company in the town I get  a unique insight. Currently all RSP's including Telstra have noticeable congestion at peak times, so if the CVC rates do drop it all be interesting to observe which RSP's pass it onto customers via better contention ratios and which ones use it to improve their skinny margins.


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## Toyota Lexcen (26 October 2016)

Closed at $5 today, terrible situation for long term shareholders


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## Miner (26 October 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Closed at $5 today, terrible situation for long term shareholders




Toyota Lexcen
Yes and it depends when  a long term investor bought Telstra share ?
If he or she bought during IPO and held then there is no sleep loss. if any bought during mid may or mid july - great loss.
But the people who bought after 12 September should stay calm and wait. The fluctuation has been minimal and TLS is not a script to go sky rocketing up or down. Please consider it is an infrastructure and Telco share both. 
I bought at $5.04  for long term (unlike few like LOM on short term) and happy to hold until mid 2017.


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## Toyota Lexcen (26 October 2016)

fluctuation been minimal, $6.60 to $5

anybody who bought in past 5yrs would be very disappointed,


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## Triathlete (29 October 2016)

I am expecting TLS to continue towards $4.60 and worst case $4.15.....might be time to start shorting....

Attached is my latest analysis...Happy trading

Triathlete


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## Quant (29 October 2016)

Triathlete said:


> I am expecting TLS to continue towards $4.60 and worst case $4.15.....might be time to start shorting....
> 
> Attached is my latest analysis...Happy trading
> 
> ...




Wow im sure they are WAY better candidates for shorting , solid earnings with a fully franked div in the 6% zone in this 10 year 2.3% yield world isnt anything id be shorting here atm when its already near 20% of recent highs . Good luck if you do short sell


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## Triathlete (29 October 2016)

Quant said:


> Wow im sure they are WAY better candidates for shorting , solid earnings with a fully franked div in the 6% zone in this 10 year 2.3% yield world isnt anything id be shorting here atm when its already near 20% of recent highs . Good luck if you do short sell




Yes you could be right, but I am just looking at the levels...I actually think BKL at the moment might be a better short ...what do you think??


----------



## UMike (31 October 2016)

Triathlete said:


> I am expecting TLS to continue towards $4.60 and worst case $4.15.....might be time to start shorting....
> 
> Attached is my latest analysis...Happy trading
> 
> ...



Would depend a lot on how you think the ASX200 is going.
Seems TLS has outperformed this slightly.

Buyers number have seemed to halve atm while the sellers numbers stayed the same.


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## Toyota Lexcen (1 November 2016)

$4.92 close today

doesn't matter how good the dividend is on these companies, the chance of losing capital is so high no one is buying


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## dpgrubesic (1 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> $4.92 close today
> 
> doesn't matter how good the dividend is on these companies, the chance of losing capital is so high no one is buying




I'd give you that i'd argue the market has been pretty shaky past couple weeks due to the US election and if Trump wins it will probably continue in a a bear fashion for the short term.


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## Klogg (1 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> $4.92 close today
> 
> doesn't matter how good the dividend is on these companies, the chance of losing capital is so high no one is buying




Confirmation bias.


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## Toyota Lexcen (10 November 2016)

$4.85 at close, apparently you not buying Telstra but some type of bond proxy stock that will go up and down depending on what happens to bonds

nothing to do with telecommunications


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## Miner (11 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> $4.85 at close, apparently you not buying Telstra but some type of bond proxy stock that will go up and down depending on what happens to bonds
> 
> nothing to do with telecommunications



agreed TLS is not doing well . But if I compare performance on stock eg TPM, VOC - then it tells some story on telecommunication stocks. I incurred some loss on my buy price but I am long on TLS.


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## Toyota Lexcen (11 November 2016)

I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85


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## sptrawler (11 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85




Until Telstra can come up with a plan to shore up earnings, investors will continue to lose confidence in their ability to maintain the dividend.

The NBN is still rolling out and making the playing field more and more level, the majority of the customer base is concentrated in the high density city areas, where all carriers will have the same coverage therefore equal earning potential.

Telstra needs to find another income stream, while it is still getting compensation payments from the Government, giving all their money away to support a dividend is short sighted.IMO

They should have bought channel10 when it was available, then integrated free to air/ foxtel and over the internet t.v years ago. Only my opinion.

I have a holding in Telstra, but I'm definitely not adding to it, until I can see where their growth will come from.

The banks get natural inflation hedged growth, by the fact wages generally go up, so more goes in, Telstra is competing in a market where prices generally go down.

As I said only my opinion, as a contribution to the discussion.


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## Miner (11 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85






sptrawler said:


> Until Telstra can come up with a plan to shore up earnings, investors will continue to lose confidence in their ability to maintain the dividend.
> 
> The NBN is still rolling out and making the playing field more and more level, the majority of the customer base is concentrated in the high density city areas, where all carriers will have the same coverage therefore equal earning potential.
> 
> ...




Candidly today my confidence on TLS is shaken terribly. Price has dived down . NBN was down in many areas of Perth yesterday also. That could also have contributed investment community.
Like Toyota L I am now in 'deep soup'.
Let us pray together for miracle like Trump saw. But I do not have red hair of three lovely mistresses turned out to be wives as Trump has.


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## UMike (12 November 2016)

OK OK.....
But what's changed to last few days.

I've been lucky and unloaded quite a few at the last few peaks.
I've just bought back to my original holding amount.


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## Triathlete (13 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> I got 40k in Telstra for buy prices similar to yours, *watched it go to $6.60 back down, then back up to $5.85 when I discussed with girlfriend about unloading it but didn't and now its at $4.85*




What you have described here is what the majority of buy and hold investors do.

I learnt my lesson many many years ago when the same thing happened to me holding MBL and watching that stock go from $20 into the $90's and was still holding it when it came back down to $40.I was very inexperienced at the time....

Since that time I knew I had to look at investing differently so I eventually learnt something about technical's to go with the fundamentals and this has helped me.

A must for me now is every time I take a position I will always set an exit point both *on the upside and downside* based on the Fundamentals and Technical's at the the time of the investment and then just continue to monitor the situation....

Whether there is better reports coming out on the company and if the technical's are supporting that view, and they match up then all good and if the technical's do not support that view then I keep a close eye on the situation...just my


----------



## So_Cynical (13 November 2016)

10 year chart clearly shows where TLS was good, "no remorse" buying, i have no idea what so ever why anyone would be buying after that point, looking back it was quite a large (3 years) entry point if one considered that under $3.75 was the buy zone, under $3 it was a screaming buy.
~


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## Miner (20 November 2016)

just putting some salt on my own wound TLS has been downgraded . The 2.5% rise on last week could be a temporary. Still holding but watching to get my exit low price .
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/63932-ratings-agency-cuts-its-outlook-on-telstra.html


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## UMike (21 November 2016)

Miner said:


> just putting some salt on my own wound TLS has been downgraded . The 2.5% rise on last week could be a temporary. Still holding but watching to get my exit low price .
> http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/63932-ratings-agency-cuts-its-outlook-on-telstra.html



Morningstar analyst estimates still maintain their $6.00 Intrinsic Valuation but with a Fair Value Uncertainty: 
Medium


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## Miner (28 November 2016)

UMike said:


> Morningstar analyst estimates still maintain their $6.00 Intrinsic Valuation but with a Fair Value Uncertainty:
> Medium




Agreed. I read just now from Fat Prophets that they have initiated BUY for Telstra on long term basis.

"Telstra is resting on long-term support, and the Telco looks to be great buying at current levels. A 6.5% dividend yield (9.5% grossed up for franking credits) combined with longer term top line revenue growth prospects, is an opportunity that doesn’t come knocking every day."

BTW I am also looking into TPG  and AYS instead of VOC.


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## Toyota Lexcen (28 November 2016)

the dividend is just worthless at the moment, it means nothing by the looks of it, 9.5% gross yield!

so many companies that are paying out year after year are flops yet a company with a very minor dividend is soaring

when this changes who knows


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## Miner (29 November 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> the dividend is just worthless at the moment, it means nothing by the looks of it, 9.5% gross yield!
> 
> so many companies that are paying out year after year are flops yet a company with a very minor dividend is soaring
> 
> when this changes who knows


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## Boggo (3 December 2016)

I am with Telstra but out of contract and i've been looking at phones and phone plans.

I would go with Boost (Telstra network) but my phone is about stuffed so looking at a phone inclusive plan.

You seriously have to wonder if Telstra are being greedy or are they trying to lose customers.

The Optus plan has unlimited talk and text, Telstra $550 talk and unlimited text, both 2 year contract and 64g phones and both 1gb data.
$576 difference over the 2 year plan !

(click to expand)


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## Muschu (3 December 2016)

I prefer unlocked phones and recently switched from Telstra to Amaysim.  Good monthly plan including some overseas inclusions. Think it's about $25 / month but not a plan for everyone.  Worth a look I suggest.
They use the Optus network so coverage pretty good.  Online support is pretty reasonable (live chat) and better than others I have used including Iinet.  However hopeless response to emails or via Facebook.
Took the phone overseas (with data turned off) and coverage was good except none at all in Norway.  
I didn't use the phone much but used it with wifi when I had access; also used Viber and Whatsapp.  So my 4.5 weeks away actually incurred no extra costs.  Needs care though.


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## Boggo (3 December 2016)

Muschu said:


> I prefer unlocked phones and recently switched from Telstra to Amaysim.  Good monthly plan including some overseas inclusions. Think it's about $25 / month but not a plan for everyone.  Worth a look I suggest.
> They use the Optus network so coverage pretty good.  Online support is pretty reasonable (live chat) and better than others I have used including Iinet.  However hopeless response to emails or via Facebook.
> Took the phone overseas (with data turned off) and coverage was good except none at all in Norway.
> I didn't use the phone much but used it with wifi when I had access; also used Viber and Whatsapp.  So my 4.5 weeks away actually incurred no extra costs.  Needs care though.




Thanks Muschu.

I was looking at sim only plans, for those Boost seems to be the way, Telstra network etc.

My iphone 5 is nearly 5 years old and I have already replaced the battery once and the iphone SE is the same size which fits in my pocket and its case etc.

This is interesting...
https://whatphone.com.au/?utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=bing


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## Miner (4 December 2016)

Boggo said:


> Thanks Muschu.
> 
> I was looking at sim only plans, for those Boost seems to be the way, Telstra network etc.
> 
> ...



I have been using SIM only phone for Australia for  a long time. mid last week I bought a new phone Samsung Galaxy J 5 from JB HI Fi. It ticks all the needs I have and not to suffer from price reduction from high range of Samsung (which is better than I Phones with Gorilla glass, and considering they only manufactured for Apple) Edge or similar. I am a happy customer.
I do not like Telstra SIM but many places you do not have choice as Amaysim and others do not work. Yes, Boost uses Telstra network but they are treated as second class citizens (just migrants from certain countries are treated in Australia - when people say you are Australian of Chinese/Korean/Malaysian/Indian born but never say the same with Australian with SA/UK born- sorry digressed).
Amaysim has real value for money if you do not want to speak a real person (30 mins waiting on phone) but just check the free countries. Canada is not included and many places it does not work. Overseas hardly even you want to receive free incoming SMS while roaming. Amaysim uses Optus network and second class citizen for Optus too.
If you want to oveseas and use Telstra SIM only then consider no locking Post SIM plan than Pre paid SIM plans. 
I have been working in Madagascar and found after 8 months the differential on services between post paid SIM and pre paid SIM. That is of course a stupid marketing differentiator by Telstra . If they have half a cent brain then people paying cash under prepay should be prioritised and not the people who pay after one month.
However, I have switched to Telstra SIM yesterday because my work place area in Perth does not cover any other network except Telstra . Yes Perth is a metro town and capital.
In addition in my residential area Sorrento, we do not have NBN coverage or ADSL . So have to rely on Telstra cable. Ironically in Duncraig 6023 we have had the same story.
.Thought to share my experience on the discussion on TLS vs Amaysim and Boost. 
*Oh yes, use social email address for Amaysim or Face book for fastest responses.*
Returning to TLS - still holding


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## galumay (4 December 2016)

Miner said:


> Yes, Boost uses Telstra network but they are treated as second class citizens




In what way?? I switched my business phones over to Boost a year ago and havent looked back, support is much better than Tel$tra ( I know thats a low bar! ) and I am saving a lot. We live in a remote location where the Tel$tra network is the only available one so other carriers are not an option.


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## Boggo (4 December 2016)

galumay said:


> In what way?? I switched my business phones over to Boost a year ago and havent looked back, support is much better than Tel$tra ( I know thats a low bar! ) and I am saving a lot. We live in a remote location where the Tel$tra network is the only available one so other carriers are not an option.




My research and comments from existing users would agree with what you are saying. I would have gone with Boost if I hadn't wanted a phone too.

As this is a Telstra thread the real question is are they trying to price themselves out of the market.
Maybe they under the misguided illusion that the are special and people will pay whatever they ask and are willing to put up with their poor service.


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## sptrawler (6 December 2016)

Boggo said:


> I am with Telstra but out of contract and i've been looking at phones and phone plans.
> 
> I would go with Boost (Telstra network) but my phone is about stuffed so looking at a phone inclusive plan.
> 
> ...




I am with Lyca mobile on the Telstra network, similar to Boost, some fairly attractive plans.IMO


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## BarneyChambers (6 December 2016)

I am currently with Optus personally, I've been with Telstra before and found them to have TERRIBLE customer service.

The telecommunication company is enjoying a market cap of $63,800 Million as a core holding for other retail investors. Many shareholders (myself included) were very happy with the company’s latest performance stating that it has been doing well because of its position as a dominant telecommunication carrier in the ASX. 

There's an interesting article on Tesltras dividends here which is where I got my information:

http://au.advfn.com/newsletter/barn...ividends-gives-shareholders-a-reason-to-smile


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## pixel (23 December 2016)

Trend Reversal possible: Higher Low, Higher High





of course, "false breaks" are not unheard of. So nothing must be taken for granted.


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## peter2 (28 December 2016)

I agree with you pixel. TLS is looking good here.


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## Triathlete (28 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> I agree with you pixel. TLS is looking good here.
> View attachment 69259




I also agree and since we have an ex div in about 60 days this should help to push the price higher.

I would be looking for price to move towards $5.30 - $5.40 in the short term.


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## pixel (6 January 2017)

While the upper gap ($5.23 on 1 September) has been filled yesterday, and this morning's pre-Open looks again rather strong, I remain cautious about the small gap left open on Wednesday. 
(Purists may also point to the gap below $4.90, but I see that as part of the strong bottom reversal, a pattern that leaves quite often a gap which can remain open indefinitely.)





Summing it up, I find a retracement to somewhere between $5 and $5.10 quite probable. If the next Higher Low finds support in that region, I see increasing odds for an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern with a main target in the $5.70-$5.80 region around March/April.


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## Triathlete (6 January 2017)

pixel said:


> While the upper gap ($5.23 on 1 September) has been filled yesterday, and this morning's pre-Open looks again rather strong, I remain cautious about the small gap left open on Wednesday.
> (Purists may also point to the gap below $4.90, but I see that as part of the strong bottom reversal, a pattern that leaves quite often a gap which can remain open indefinitely.)
> 
> View attachment 69444
> ...




I believe the run up in price is due to the dividend coming up shortly.

I would be very surprised if it ran up to $5.70 - $5.80 this time around as you have mentioned,anything is possible though.

Taking a look at Elliott Wave charts the weekly is on a Wave C or has started a Wave 1 possibly

and the Monthly is showing a wave 2

I am expecting it to come back down after the ex dividend date.


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## pixel (6 January 2017)

Triathlete said:


> I am expecting it to come back down after the ex dividend date.



So would I. When will they go ex-div next time? Maybe early March, which should fit in nicely with the inverted H&S.


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## nulla nulla (8 January 2017)

Does the fact that the ACCC is looking at opening up the Telstra wi fi network to other carriers, in a similar manner they did to opening up the Telstra land lines in the past, concern potential investors at all?


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## pixel (18 January 2017)

As expected, TLS closed the 1c gap of Jan 3 to 4, but in doing so, it's left a new 1/2c gap overhead. As there is still more than a month to go till the next ex-div, there is time enough for a swing Low to be formed before the announcement.
Worth keeping an eye on TLS when/where it finds support


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## Boggo (18 January 2017)

5 wave sequence playing out there at the moment (imo).

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (18 January 2017)

Boggo said:


> 5 wave sequence playing out there at the moment (imo).




Time to go warrant shopping to collect the divvy 

(click to expand)


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## Boggo (26 January 2017)

Five wave pattern is now on the limit low for Wave 4, a close below 5.07 and this pattern will be invalid.

(click to expand)


----------



## rnr (26 January 2017)

Boggo said:


> Five wave pattern is now on the limit low for Wave 4, a close below 5.07 and this pattern will be invalid.
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 69696




Lets see if the Bullish Hidden Divergence kicks in to save the day!


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## UMike (9 February 2017)

_Five wave pattern is now on the limit low for Wave 4, a close below 5.07 and this pattern will be invalid._
I Guess this is now invalid.... Is that good or bad chart wise?

As a customer I have never been more dissatisfied and if this recent experience is any guide to the future getting out now would be a wise idea.


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## Boggo (9 February 2017)

Will have a look at the updates when I get to the computer later.
Likely now to resume its downward trend however I think it has a dividend coming up which may play havoc with the pattern for a while.

I have been a customer for over eight years, nearly got done with a new phone and plan until I saw that Optus had a much better plan.
I also gave them up on home phone line, I packaged that with broadband plan through Internode for over $30 month saving by combing them.

They are being overrun by better deals and customer service in every area that I am aware of.


----------



## Boggo (9 February 2017)

UMike said:


> _Five wave pattern is now on the limit low for Wave 4, a close below 5.07 and this pattern will be invalid._
> I Guess this is now invalid.... Is that good or bad chart wise?




Not sure when they are paying a dividend, usually in March each year. Maybe someone can update me on this.

It is likely that the recent pattern since mid Nov is just a corrective to the downward trend since July.
If this is the case then around $5.17 would be the first test of the recent direction of the last week or so. Should it continue up through that then around $5.35 would be the next resistance and a break up through that would be a new trend direction.

A potential dividend could distort this in the short term.

Basically, TLS is in a downtrend and has experienced a corrective pattern which (imo) is unlikely to last and until it either breaks up through $5.30 or down through $5.00 its a heads or tails prospect.

(click to expand)


----------



## PZ99 (9 February 2017)

1st of March for the XD divvy date


----------



## Boggo (9 February 2017)

PZ99 said:


> 1st of March for the XD divvy date




Thanks for that, was going to search around later.

We will probably see the price creep up until that date then.


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## Triathlete (11 February 2017)

Here is my latest analysis on Telstra.

As we move closer to the Dividend date 01/03/2017 I will be looking for the stock to move closer towards the previous high of $5.29.

If we get a good result we may break this level at which point I would be looking at the stock to move towards $5.48 to $5.57 which is 100% from the extension of the low $4.70,$5.29 and $4.99 as shown on the chart.

If the Elliot Wave pattern can hold its shape then a move higher to 162% level of $5.94 is a possibility but we are a long way from that yet.

Should the results not be favorable then a reversal and continuation of the longer term Wave C will come back into play again and we may see a move lower back towards $4.60 which is the 50% level of the All Time High which is a very significant support level and really needs to hold here otherwise the stock would be in serious trouble..

Interesting few weeks coming up...Happy trading everyone...


----------



## PZ99 (16 February 2017)

Gee whiz I thought they did the divvy today after the opening !

Are we heading for sub $4.90 ?


----------



## Triathlete (16 February 2017)

Maybe they pushed the stock lower today to trigger everyones stops.???


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## Triathlete (16 February 2017)

I see why the slide happened now.....

Telstra's first-half profit has dropped 14.4 per cent to $1.79 billion, largely due to the loss of earnings that followed the sale of its stake in a Chinese car website and stiff competition at home.

Net profit for the six months to December 31 dropped from $2.09 billion in the same period a year earlier as revenue fell 6.4 per cent to $12.8 billion.

Interim dividend was flat at 15.5 cents a share, fully franked.


----------



## Porper (16 February 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Maybe they pushed the stock lower today to trigger everyones stops.???




The weekly chart shows the better patterns.

Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.

Disclosure: I am short.


----------



## sptrawler (16 February 2017)

Triathlete said:


> I see why the slide happened now.....
> 
> Telstra's first-half profit has dropped 14.4 per cent to $1.79 billion, largely due to the loss of earnings that followed the sale of its stake in a Chinese car website and stiff competition at home.
> 
> ...




That is a really good dividend, when you consider they only earned 14.8 cents a share, I wonder how long they can keep that dividend for?


----------



## Triathlete (16 February 2017)

Porper said:


> The weekly chart shows the better patterns.
> 
> Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.
> 
> ...




Always good to get your view using the wave principle.

On the weekly chart a Wave C was a view I also agree with.
On the Monthly chart I have it still marked as a wave  2

I had shorted the stock earlier on its move down to $4.70 which was just above the 50% level of the All time high at $4.60.

*Once we started moving back I took the position that it may have completed.
Maybe not after today.*

With the result just posted the $4.60 will be a level I will keep an eye on now .

If it breaks here then the move to $4.15 looks on the cards.

Time will tell though....


----------



## Porper (16 February 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Always good to get your view using the wave principle.
> 
> On the weekly chart a Wave C was a view I also agree with.
> On the Monthly chart I have it still marked as a wave  2
> ...




The interesting aspect of the daily chart is the 3-wave move up to the recent high. It can only be a corrective pattern, or part of a larger structure. It can't be a wave-1 as overlap has occurred.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 February 2017)

very disappointing, now its look like the stock/company will have to "shake" itself up again over the next 3-5yrs


----------



## galumay (17 February 2017)

Totally unsurprising to anyone in the industry. Telstra is a basket case and the NBN has routed their business, they have adapted very poorly to being a retailer only, customer service has actually got worse and the silo mentality withing the org has caused massive strutural dysfunction.


----------



## mcgrath111 (17 February 2017)

galumay said:


> Totally unsurprising to anyone in the industry. Telstra is a basket case and the NBN has routed their business, they have adapted very poorly to being a retailer only, customer service has actually got worse and the silo mentality withing the org has caused massive strutural dysfunction.



Interested to see if Telstras announcement has changed your view on the upcoming report of Vocus.
Im still comfortable, but another drop wouldn't surprise me.


----------



## Boggo (2 March 2017)

Porper said:


> The weekly chart shows the better patterns.
> 
> Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.
> 
> ...




Weekly chart, slightly different method but same target area should it break down through $4.50.

(click to expand)


----------



## WRiley (10 March 2017)

Boggo said:


> Weekly chart, slightly different method but same target area should it break down through $4.50.
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 70154



Looks like it broke earlier but bounced up again.


----------



## WRiley (10 March 2017)

Triathlete said:


> I see why the slide happened now.....
> 
> Telstra's first-half profit has dropped 14.4 per cent to $1.79 billion, largely due to the loss of earnings that followed the sale of its stake in a Chinese car website and stiff competition at home.
> 
> ...




Knowing the reason for the drop is good,...

What can we do, or Telstra do... in the coming days to 'replace' that lost profit to maintain our dividend payout at 31 cps ? Well, they can always wait for the NBN payments to come in,... only question is : will this be enough ?


----------



## Boggo (10 March 2017)

WRiley said:


> Looks like it broke earlier but bounced up again.




I may as well follow through with this as an exercise, let's see if it plays out.
Assuming from above pic that we are in a Wave C on the weekly chart and C has a five wave sequence of which four have already played out then we are left with two target areas.

(Weekly - click to expand)


----------



## MrChow (12 March 2017)

TLS capital management review was worded alot like BHP in 2015 with emphasis on balance sheet over distributions.

BHP had a 30 year record of rising dividends then changed to a payout ratio which resulted in dividends 3 times less.

TLS won't be that extreme, but hypothetical payout ratio of 75% on forecast medium term EBITDA (-10% net NBN vs offset strategies) would cut dividends by about a third.

They said a decision would be due this year, under that scenario what do you pay for 2020 eps of 28c and dividend of 20c?


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## WRiley (13 March 2017)

MrChow said:


> TLS capital management review was worded alot like BHP in 2015 with emphasis on balance sheet over distributions.
> 
> BHP had a 30 year record of rising dividends then changed to a payout ratio which resulted in dividends 3 times less.
> 
> ...



I am estimating a yearly dps of 24 cps as of this moment,.... you are calling 20 cps ?? TLS has NEVER PAID anything less than 28 cps yearly since FY2007 !


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## sptrawler (14 March 2017)

WRiley said:


> I am estimating a yearly dps of 24 cps as of this moment,.... you are calling 20 cps ?? TLS has NEVER PAID anything less than 28 cps yearly since FY2007 !



Telstra owned everything in 2007.
As time goes by they will become more of a reseller, with a rental component from the NBN, unless they can come up with a way to diversify.
Previous attempts, to break into Asia, have come to nought.
The Governments cross media ownership rules, stymie a lot of options to diversify into inter media content, so I personally can't see were the moneys going to come from.
I do hold Telstra.


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## sptrawler (14 March 2017)

MrChow said:


> TLS capital management review was worded alot like BHP in 2015 with emphasis on balance sheet over distributions.
> 
> BHP had a 30 year record of rising dividends then changed to a payout ratio which resulted in dividends 3 times less.
> 
> ...



A 30% drop in dividend, would in must circumstances result in a drop in share price, unless the company has a light at the end of the tunnel rhetoric and vision.
I do own them, but at this point am not adding to the holding.


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## Boggo (16 March 2017)

$4.80 is significant now on TLS, that will close the gap on the daily chart.
Still tending to think that another turn down may be a possibility, just my


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## Porper (16 March 2017)

Boggo said:


> $4.80 is significant now on TLS, that will close the gap on the daily chart.
> Still tending to think that another turn down may be a possibility, just my




Agree Boggo, the gap is important now. I still believe the larger degree patterns portend another leg down. The only problem is the Butterfly reversal pattern as shown. These often prove to be significant. A push up through point A would be required to avoid a deeper retracement i.m.o.


----------



## WRiley (17 March 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Telstra owned everything in 2007.
> As time goes by they will become more of a reseller, with a rental component from the NBN, unless they can come up with a way to diversify.
> Previous attempts, to break into Asia, have come to nought.
> The Governments cross media ownership rules, stymie a lot of options to diversify into inter media content, so I personally can't see were the moneys going to come from.
> I do hold Telstra.



If Telstra is able to secure something from the coming 4G spectrum auction in April, then, this would be the light at the end of the tunnel ???


----------



## sptrawler (20 March 2017)

WRiley said:


> If Telstra is able to secure something from the coming 4G spectrum auction in April, then, this would be the light at the end of the tunnel ???




The other carriers will be bidding for some spectrum also, of greater concern is access to their rural network, if the ACCC forces access big problems. IMO


----------



## WRiley (20 March 2017)

sptrawler said:


> The other carriers will be bidding for some spectrum also, of greater concern is access to their rural network, if the ACCC forces access big problems. IMO



It is sufficient if TLS can get a bigger chunk of the auction, and it's not necessary for her to catch everything, IMO,... then the ACCC will not, hopefully force access into ALL the rural areas. Just a small part of the rural area is okay.


----------



## Porper (22 March 2017)

Nothing changes in my view. The wave equality projection aligns with the 61.8% retracement level providing confluence as per chart. Still heading lower. Also, as I posted yesterday...the banks have bearish divergence on the daily and weekly charts. Not good for the XJO.


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2017)

The problem with Telstra, is they don't think outside the square, just try using their websites to give them a suggestion.
It is o.k if you want to comment on what they do, but try giving them an idea, they don't supply a box for new ideas/suggestions. lol
Obviously they think, they do everything right, and there isn't a new idea worth pursuing.
Just another Aussie icon going round the S bend. IMO


----------



## WRiley (28 March 2017)

Available blocks of the 700 MHz spectrum is due to start auction on Tuesday, April 4th.,... unless the date has been changed by the ACMA. Let's see how Telstra does,...


----------



## Boggo (2 April 2017)

I have a Telstra sim in my ipad for use when I am out of wifi range etc.
The current 365 days is about to expire so I had a look at the recharge cost with Telstra and how much the same would cost with Optus.
With Optus I have to pay $2 for a new sim card and then recharge it.

I have recently cancelled my home phone and mobile that were with Telstra and gone to Internode and Optus.
Looks like the ipad data is due for a change too.

Is this a complete ripoff or am I missing something ? No wonder they are on the nose !!


----------



## sptrawler (3 April 2017)

Boggo it might be worth going to a Telstra shop, I'm on $50 for 5gig 365 day expiry. I think they also do $140 for 16gig with 730 day expiry.
Still expensive, but better than what you have posted.
Telstra is hanging on by its finger tips, if they have to give other carriers access to their Country network, they are history. IMO


----------



## Boggo (3 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Boggo it might be worth going to a Telstra shop...




Thanks sptrawler.

I was with Telstra for many years with my iphone and when the old one started playing up I had a look at the iphone SE as it is fairly compact and the same size as the iphone 5.

The pic below was what I found, I printed off both pages and went to the local Telstra shop, showed them what Optus was offering but they wouldn't budge.

Result was that I went with Optus and also cancelled my home line that was with Telstra and bundled that in with Internode broadband, $$ savings on both home line and broadband.

"It's our way or the highway" attitude is costing them business but they don't seem to care !

iPhone SE comparison, note the talk time difference.


----------



## sptrawler (3 April 2017)

Yes Telstra prices are outrageous, I'm with Iprimus home line and woolies mobile, only have Telstra mobile data usb dongle for coverage while travelling.


----------



## WRiley (5 April 2017)

The 700 MHz spectrum auction was held yesterday. Anybody heard of any results yet ?
http://www.acma.gov.au/Industry/Spectrum/Spectrum-projects/700-MHz-band/700-mhz-auction-overview


----------



## sptrawler (12 April 2017)

TPG and Vodaphone picked up the remaining 700mhz spectrum, Telstra wasn't allowed to bid as it purchased a slab in an earlier auction.


----------



## PZ99 (12 April 2017)

Is that why they're down to $4.30 today ??


----------



## Boggo (12 April 2017)

Looks like its on it way to the next level.
Previous post here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-99#post-939986

Weekly chart


----------



## DeepState (12 April 2017)

PZ99 said:


> Is that why they're down to $4.30 today ??




TPG spectrum acquisition.


----------



## sptrawler (12 April 2017)

Well it had to happen sooner or later, Telstra had better come up with a vision for growth, sitting there like mushrooms isn't going to cut. IMO


----------



## Porper (12 April 2017)

Porper said:


> The weekly chart shows the better patterns.
> 
> Corrective pattern down, expanding triangle and currently seeing wave-C down to the target/area of confluence.
> 
> ...




The target area has now been achieved. However, that doesn't imply the rout is over. It's just a POTENTIAL reversal zone.

I still hold my short position.


----------



## pixel (12 April 2017)

Boggo said:


> Looks like its on it way to the next level.
> Previous post here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-99#post-939986
> 
> Weekly chart
> View attachment 70694



Fibonacci suggests an even worse scenario could be possible. 
When the sequence 0-100%-50%- is breaking beyond 100% again, I often find 200% the next target. In this case, 200% is near enough $3.20.


----------



## sptrawler (12 April 2017)

Boggo said:


> I may as well follow through with this as an exercise, let's see if it plays out.
> Assuming from above pic that we are in a Wave C on the weekly chart and C has a five wave sequence of which four have already played out then we are left with two target areas.
> 
> (Weekly - click to expand)
> View attachment 70287




Well Boggo, the chart you posted on March 10, was pretty accurate regarding depth of fall.


----------



## peter2 (12 April 2017)

Good work by all the TA's on this thread to project possible target prices for this move down. 

I couldn't convince family TLS holders to sell on the break below 6.00, because they thought the div was too good to miss out on.


----------



## pixel (12 April 2017)

peter2 said:


> Good work by all the TA's on this thread to project possible target prices for this move down.
> 
> I couldn't convince family TLS holders to sell on the break below 6.00, because they thought the div was too good to miss out on.



hmm - $1.80 = 6 years times 30c divi; forget inflation.
that's about right back to $6 - provided it doesn't drop any lower. 

too bad they don't teach real-life Maths anymore in schools


----------



## peter2 (12 April 2017)

Then you invest the TLS proceeds into something that's going up and paying 4% div like a market ETF. After "6 years" you have so much more. 

too bad they don't teach real-life Common Sense anymore in schools.


----------



## PZ99 (12 April 2017)

Does anyone think the divvy will drop or is that a length of string question ?


----------



## Porper (12 April 2017)

PZ99 said:


> Does anyone think the divvy will drop or is that a length of string question ?



 I am no fundamentalist so I may be completely wrong...but, the dividend will have to be cut at some point as they can't afford to pay it at it's current rate. The other problem is growth...or rather lack of it. They need to pull a rabbit out of the bag and that's not easy.


----------



## Boggo (12 April 2017)

I have a mate in Hong Kong who has a significant six digit holding in TLS.
Last April he was buying more on the advice of as he put it "one of the top financial planners in Adelaide" who told him it had bottomed and he would never see these prices again (he may be right too ).
I gave him my opinion at the time and he emailed me about a month later to tell me how wrong I was, strange that I haven't heard any mention of TLS from him recently 

Just my way of looking at it.
If a stock is going down but the dividend is good (ie TLS) its like having two employees on your payroll, one is working and the other one is standing around costing you money.
Surprising too is how many don't understand the formula for or implications of a rising dividend yield.

ALL as an opposite example has tripled in price in three years and only has a dividend yield of 1.3%.
Which one should you be holding...


----------



## Boggo (12 April 2017)

Porper said:


> I am no fundamentalist so I may be completely wrong...but, *the dividend will have to be cut at some point as they can't afford to pay it at it's current rate*. The other problem is growth...or rather lack of it. They need to pull a rabbit out of the bag and that's not easy.




Expensive advertising and promotions, exorbitant non competitive prices, head in the sand attitude, competitors trouncing them and a falling share price - something has to give.

A perfect recipe for very basic "common sense" fundamentals to reinforce technical price behaviour.


----------



## MrChow (12 April 2017)

Does anyone know what happens after the NBN pit access contract expires in 30 years (or whenever it is)?

I assume if the NBN is still in use then, would they have to extend the contract with Telstra or do they have other options?


----------



## sptrawler (12 April 2017)

PZ99 said:


> Does anyone think the divvy will drop or is that a length of string question ?




Their last dividend was 15.5 cents, their earnings were 14.8 cents, like everyone has said somethings got to give.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 April 2017)

Will tpg wholesale this 4G to Telstra, Optus etc,


----------



## sptrawler (12 April 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Will tpg wholesale this 4G to Telstra, Optus etc,




Why would TPG do that? 
Also Telstra and Optus have their own 4G 700Mhz spectrum bandwidth, why would they want to purchase extra capacity off TPG?


----------



## Muschu (13 April 2017)

peter2 said:


> T....................
> too bad they don't teach real-life Common Sense anymore in schools.




Yep, let's blame the schools....


----------



## WRiley (13 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Their last dividend was 15.5 cents, their earnings were 14.8 cents, like everyone has said somethings got to give.



At present moment, I am factoring in just 12 cents dps per HY when I buy this ctr. If the dps given out is higher, I get to earn more,.. I preferred to err on the lower side.
TLS has never paid less than 14 cents dps per HY since the stats started in 2006/7. Hence, I'm even going below 14 cents to justify the yield for me to buy this ctr.
In the back of my mind,.. I wouldn't discount out the fact that this dps may go lower than 12 cents in the next one to two years if the profit shld suffer further.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (13 April 2017)

Tls was not allowed to bid on this new spectrum?


----------



## sptrawler (13 April 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Tls was not allowed to bid on this new spectrum?



No, because they bought a big chunk in the first auction of the 700Mhz spectrum, in 2013.


----------



## Nicks (13 April 2017)

Could TLS ever be a takeover target for a bigger international? Just like Singtel's interest in Optus. You'd think if this was an option right now would be an opportunity to strike.


----------



## skc (13 April 2017)

Nicks said:


> Could TLS ever be a takeover target for a bigger international? Just like Singtel's interest in Optus. You'd think if this was an option right now would be an opportunity to strike.




There's no way that the FIRB will approve that imo.


----------



## Boggo (13 April 2017)

Nicks said:


> Could TLS ever be a takeover target for a bigger international? Just like Singtel's interest in Optus. You'd think if this was an option right now would be an opportunity to strike.




If $4.15 doesn't hold it could be a bargain buy at $3.45  

Weekly...


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## Triathlete (13 April 2017)

Not sure were Telstra will finish up but the downtrend is still in place although I have pulled the pin on my short today @ $4.16 ,may look to get back in if $3.92 is broken.
Have attached the Monthly and Weekly charts analysis below.....

Monthly Chart:







Weekly Chart:


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## MrChow (13 April 2017)

Here's my downside scenario based on current information.

Earnings in next 4 years:
-20% from NBN partially offset by cost cuts (Telstra's own forecast)
-10% from TPG mobile competition (Share Price attribution this week)

EPS 23c (33c x -30%)
Div 17c (if changed to 75% payout ratio)
PE 11 (just above 2009 low)
Div Yield 9.4% (gross)
Share Price $2.50

I think this is why they are looking at bringing the potential $88b future NBN revenue forward into a new vehicle, it could hit -5% of earnings, but give them a one-off treasure chest to reinvest to offset the above scenario.


----------



## galumay (13 April 2017)

I have no idea of the hard numbers, but at a local level I know TLS are absolutely bleeding customers with the NBN, the fact that they charge about a 30% premium for the same plan with worse support than just about any other company has seen a massive erosion of market share in our town. I know because I run an IT company and also have the contract for NBN installs in our town. If the numbers were consistent across the country the loss of revenue from broadband due to the move to NBN will be massive for NBN. I suspect the rest of Australia is not quite as well informed so the hemorrhaging of customers is probably less elsewhere, regardless its not a business I would allocate capital to.


----------



## Boggo (13 April 2017)

galumay said:


> I have no idea of the hard numbers, but at a local level I know TLS are absolutely bleeding customers with the NBN, the fact that they charge about a 30% premium for the same plan with worse support than just about any other company has seen a massive erosion of market share in our town. I know because I run an IT company and also have the contract for NBN installs in our town. If the numbers were consistent across the country the loss of revenue from broadband due to the move to NBN will be massive for NBN. I suspect the rest of Australia is not quite as well informed so the hemorrhaging of customers is probably less elsewhere, regardless its not a business I would allocate capital to.




Yes, my previous posts 1993 and 1995 on page 100 are two examples of what could be considered a display of their attitude.
There was a time when they could get away with that but those days are long gone for the majority who look at the numbers rather than the advertising.


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## MrChow (14 April 2017)

TLS seem to be doing well with the official NBN numbers, but based on those TLS still forecasts 20-30% loss in annual earnings from NBN by 2021, so they wouldn't want to be tracking below target.

Keep in mind TLS was in the $3-4 range before the NBN was announced, and without the NBN earnings would have been flat / declining in recent years.

Also the biggest divisional growth has come from TLS taking mobile share from Vodafone, which looks to be the opposite in the future with TPG being on the hunt and others looking to defend.

If that all sounds overly negative, I believe TLS management feel the same way which is the reason for their announcing to the market the up to $3b loss of EBITDA from NBN 5 years before it's due to happen and to warn that capital strategy such as dividends / capex / asset sales are all up for review.  They know business as is will leave a significant earnings gap (even more so with TPG news) and need to realise the financial assets they have so they can use them for a combination of capital investment = earnings clawback = maintaining (as much as possible) capital returns.


----------



## nulla nulla (15 April 2017)

IMO the Telstra share price will be driven by negativity in the near term. However the market will ultimately wake up to two factors (other than the outcome of the ACCC review of roaming access to their competitors in regional areas):

1. It will be some time before TPG has it's Mobile Network up and running in all major cities. Telstra will be locking in as many customers as possible in the interim and the new contracts will include a break fee. Any disruption to Telstra's income will be down the road; and
2. Telstra has been trying to decide what to do with the NBN aspects of the business and is expected to announce its' decision in the near future. One of the speculated options is a split off, others are share buybacks and special dividends. Shareholders/investors probably see some good in this.

I suspect that when the market gets over the TPG purchase of spectrum, the Telstra share price will rebound somewhat.

Disclosure: I purchased some Telstra shares in Thursdays close at $4.16 for my superannuation.


----------



## sptrawler (18 April 2017)

Boggo said:


> If $4.15 doesn't hold it could be a bargain buy at $3.45
> 
> Weekly...
> View attachment 70707




I'm with you on that, they could be a bargain buy at $3.45, but I still wouldn't put my life savings in.
The one thing in their favour, is they have a ton of cash, they just have to come up with a viable business plan.
That may entail looking at other opportunities, ala Westfarmers, they don't get fixated on one income stream. However, thinking outside the box, hasn't been Telstra's strong point.
My gut feeling is, they need to work out what is working overseas, then look for the opportunity here.
The line between, free to air t.v, cable t.v, live view mobile t.v and internet newsprint, is becoming very grey. 
All media is feeling the pain, and the Government is going to have to relax cross media ownership, before several go under.
This will no doubt will give Telstra an opportunity, if they are still in a financial position to compete with other predators. Just my two cents worth.


----------



## preemo (18 April 2017)

Telstra's big hope for a new business & revenue stream was Health and the formation of Telstra Health. Any thoughts about when or if that will impact the share price?


----------



## sptrawler (18 April 2017)

preemo said:


> Telstra's big hope for a new business & revenue stream was Health and the formation of Telstra Health. Any thoughts about when or if that will impact the share price?




Why would that be a big new revenue stream, when any of the providers can supply the internet connection? 
Was Telstra going to supply a knowledge base of doctors at a call centre?


----------



## preemo (18 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Why would that be a big new revenue stream, when any of the providers can supply the internet connection?
> Was Telstra going to supply a knowledge base of doctors at a call centre?




Yes they were....as well as a few other things such as the National Cancer Screening Register, the IT systems linking providers such as pharmacists etc. Have a look at https://www.telstrahealth.com/


----------



## sptrawler (18 April 2017)

Well it will be interesting to see, if the medical and hospital sector, take it onboard.
I still think in the scheme of things, it won't be a lifeline, for Telstra.
We are talking a $50billion company, they need a strong and growing income stream, to maintain that.
As has been said on numerous occasions since 2009, Telstra with the advent of the NBN, will become just another reseller.
If the ACCC decides it is in the public's interest, to allow third party access to Telstra's regional network, it is curtains.
They really do need to come up with a plan to diversify, while they have time, as it will run out.IMO
They keep trying to stay ahead of the technology game, where the margins are small and the cost is high.


----------



## preemo (18 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Well it will be interesting to see, if the medical and hospital sector, take it onboard.
> I still think in the scheme of things, it won't be a lifeline, for Telstra.
> We are talking a $50billion company, they need a strong and growing income stream, to maintain that.
> As has been said on numerous occasions since 2009, Telstra with the advent of the NBN, will become just another reseller.
> ...




Totally agree.


----------



## sptrawler (18 April 2017)

Telstra should have pushed the Government to allow it to buy a t.v station, then develop world leading t.v to mobile applications, but that would have been clever.
Australia wants to be that, but the politics don't allow it. Weird

We can't give ourselves a break, because it isn't fair to the Multi Nationals.


----------



## galumay (19 April 2017)

Seriously, Imagine Telstra Health, 2 hours on a support call to India with people at the other end who not only know nothing about Comms, but also nothing about Health!! What could possibly go wrong?! 

Same with them owning a TV station, a badly run TV station combined with a badly run Telco, that will fix the share price!!


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2017)

galumay said:


> Seriously, Imagine Telstra Health, 2 hours on a support call to India with people at the other end who not only know nothing about Comms, but also nothing about Health!! What could possibly go wrong?!
> 
> Same with them owning a TV station, a badly run TV station combined with a badly run Telco, that will fix the share price!!



There is no easy fix, to their problem.


----------



## skc (19 April 2017)

galumay said:


> Seriously, Imagine Telstra Health, 2 hours on a support call to India with people at the other end who not only know nothing about Comms, but also nothing about Health!! What could possibly go wrong?!
> 
> Same with them owning a TV station, a badly run TV station combined with a badly run Telco, that will fix the share price!!




Foxtel was supposed to be the unique content offering that makes TLS communication products more competitive. It worked for a while but, ACCC was never that obliging and now it's probably the next shoe to drop given how terrible value Foxtel offers compared to the other streaming giants. Live sport is the only real attraction, but the rights just get more and more expensive each round.

A TV station would be pointless... in 5 years there'd still be TV stations, but there will be no money in it.


----------



## McLovin (19 April 2017)

skc said:


> There's no way that the FIRB will approve that imo.




It's actually in enshrined in legislation...



> *TELSTRA CORPORATION ACT 1991 - SECT 8BG*
> *Meaning of unacceptable foreign-ownership situation*this Act, an *unacceptable foreign-ownership situation *exists in relation to Telstra if:
> 
> (a)  there is a group of foreign persons who hold, in total, a particular type of stake in Telstra of more than 35%; or
> ...






			
				skc said:
			
		

> Live sport is the only real attraction, but the rights just get more and more expensive each round.




There's also no reason why live sport is immune from streaming. Optus flopped with the EPL, but give it a few years and Foxtel could be totally redundant for anything more than re-runs of the Real Housewives of Dubbo: Live sport pretty much subsidises all the other stuff no one wants to watch on Foxtel. It's kind of funny how much times have changed. 12-13 years ago Kerry Stokes spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to get access to the Foxtel set top boxes for his one sports channel.


----------



## skc (19 April 2017)

McLovin said:


> There's also no reason why live sport is immune from streaming. Optus flopped with the EPL, but give it a few years and Foxtel could be totally redundant for anything more than re-runs of the Real Housewives of Dubbo.




The NBA has a great streaming service for all the basketball any fan would ever want to watch.. and that costs ~$200 for the entire season. It doesn't take a lot of technological innovation to stream and it doesn't take much marketing to reach your audience - who are fans to start with. I am guessing that, there is still a lot of organisational momentum behind the massive cash inflow from broadcast rights each year, and they can't be sure that streaming revenue can match that. Plus it's always good to have more than one party bidding for your product, as in the case with the rights auctions.


----------



## McLovin (19 April 2017)

skc said:


> The NBA has a great streaming service for all the basketball any fan would ever want to watch.. and that costs ~$200 for the entire season. It doesn't take a lot of technological innovation to stream and it doesn't take much marketing to reach your audience - who are fans to start with. I am guessing that, there is still a lot of organisational momentum behind the massive cash inflow from broadcast rights each year, and they can't be sure that streaming revenue can match that. Plus it's always good to have more than one party bidding for your product, as in the case with the rights auctions.




I don't think the issue is a tech one it's just a total shift in how sport has been sold for the last 70 years.

Does the NBA sell that subsciption or is through whoever owns the TV rights? I watch a fair bit of sport and there are things I'd buy a subscription to (cricket, NRL, test match rugby, PGA Tour) but there are also a lot of other sports that I watch but wouldn't buy a subscription to. There are a lot of casual fans out there which is the strength of the Fox sports offering, imo.


----------



## MrChow (19 April 2017)

The 3 FTA channels combined make up only 4% of TLS market cap.  So even if Telstra got them to double in value in 4 years, it's only 1% growth p.a for TLS.  Simiarly a takeover of a 2nd tier telco like VOC (hypothetically) would be the same maths.

So they're going to have to get creative with a blackhole in the range of -40% in the medium term from NBN / Fixed Line Decline / Mobile Metro Competition / Regional Roaming.  I remember hearing them talking about being a technology company in the future so that could be just about anything with any consequential result.


----------



## McLovin (19 April 2017)

MrChow said:


> The 3 FTA channels combined make up only 4% of TLS market cap.  So even if Telstra got them to double in value in 4 years, it's only 1% growth p.a for TLS.  Simiarly a takeover of a 2nd tier telco like VOC (hypothetically) would be the same maths.




I doubt TLS, or anyone really, has any interest in buying an FTA. They're dying. TEN was the canary in the coal mine because of its demographic skew, but just look at the numbers that win the ratings these days and compare it to 8 or so years ago. There's a reason they run endless news and reality TV these days – it's cheap. Advertisers still like the reach of TV, but at some point on the horizon the penny will drop.

As for buying another telco, not gonna happen. The ACCC will smack it down before it even starts.


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2017)

As we have said, they will have to pull a 'rabbit out of the hat', or the slow decline will be inevitable


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 April 2017)

McLovin said:


> just look at the numbers that win the ratings these days




Back in the old days it wasn't unknown that 3 million or more watched the same program on TV and we had a significantly smaller national population back then too.

So there's a shift definitely.


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Back in the old days it wasn't unknown that 3 million or more watched the same program on TV and we had a significantly smaller national population back then too.




We had a lot less channels back then, also.


----------



## Boggo (19 April 2017)

If you are not into squiggly lines skip this post or if you are into EW we can take the squiggly line discussion to the appropriate thread.

If you are wondering about what the price could do then this is one of the options I am looking at, purely as an exercise of course.

Weekly chart...


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2017)

Well a lot of fund managers, will try and crank it up, before bailing.IMO
So it will be interesting to see, how your chart plays out.
The problem, as I see it is, there is nothing but negatives supporting the price.
Then management asks the share holders, what do you think we should do, jeez why are we paying them ridiculous wages?
Telstra will end up at a price that reflects its earnings, we just have to work out what the earnings will be.


----------



## Boggo (19 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Well a lot of fund managers, will try and crank it up, before bailing.IMO
> So it will be interesting to see, how your chart plays out.
> The problem, as I see it is, there is nothing but negatives supporting the price.
> Then management asks the share holders, what do you think we should do, jeez why are we paying them ridiculous wages?
> Telstra will end up at a price that reflects its earnings, we just have to work out what the earnings will be.




Yes, a fun exercise watching TLS price behaviour especially as a former customer who attempted to point out what their opposition was offering and was met with their "but we are Telstra" attitude.

I am going to miss buying into their instalment warrants weeks before they went ex div and collecting the dividend and credits x 4.
Too risky to engage in that process now with the downside pressure.


----------



## Triathlete (20 April 2017)

Boggo said:


> If you are not into squiggly lines skip this post or if you are into EW we can take the squiggly line discussion to the appropriate thread.
> 
> If you are wondering about what the price could do then this is one of the options I am looking at, purely as an exercise of course.
> 
> ...




I like these type of exercises Boggo as it keeps the T/As on their toes...I reckon a lot of people have been caught out by the drop in TLS and Vocus as well as TPM and our now trying to recover some of their positions.

If you get a chance can you put your view with Vocus as well as an exercise so we can see how the TA plays out.

The price rallied in vocus  yesterday and I have a feeling it may get pushed back up to the $4.70-$4.83 range before another sell off is my opinion depends how nervous they get .. Time will tell though..!


----------



## McLovin (20 April 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Back in the old days it wasn't unknown that 3 million or more watched the same program on TV and we had a significantly smaller national population back then too.
> 
> So there's a shift definitely.




There's a stat floating around that 1/3rd of 14-29 year olds in Australia *never* watch TV. That's the future of television. It explains why TEN felt it first.


----------



## Porper (20 April 2017)

McLovin said:


> There's a stat floating around that 1/3rd of 14-29 year olds in Australia *never* watch TV. That's the future of television. It explains why TEN felt it first.




Not sure what it's like in Oz but in NZ there are now as many adverts as programmes. Towards the end of a film you'll get 5 mins followed by 5 mins of adverts. We record everything so never watch adverts which is something almost everybody I know does. It's a joke...SKY channels are even worse.

Regarding TLS...out on open this morning. Yesterday saw demand return, even though it could well only be a bounce unfolding.


----------



## nulla nulla (20 April 2017)

Nice run up today, I was half expecting the buyers from $4.00 to be taking their profits and for the price to stagnate or drop back. The inter-day volumes suggest there was strong demand. Tomorrow will be interesting as to whether there is a sell off prior to the weekend or whether there is enough demand to push the share price higher.


----------



## sptrawler (26 April 2017)

They seemed to run out of puff at about $4.20, given the market really bounced today, a 3c rise wasn't really inspiring.


----------



## Boggo (26 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> They seemed to run out of puff at about $4.20, given the market really bounced today, a 3c rise wasn't really inspiring.




Watched that for a little while today, some subtle offloading happening there with around 50% increase in daily volume selling into any upward momentum.


----------



## sptrawler (26 April 2017)

What would that indicate, from your understanding Boggo?
I am only starting to follow charting ideology, so would that indicate a lack of confidence, or just a lack of nerve?


----------



## Boggo (26 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> What would that indicate, from your understanding Boggo?
> I am only starting to follow charting ideology, so would that indicate a lack of confidence, or just a lack of nerve?




No charting etc, just saw a bit of the live depth action. Every time it went up it got hit with selling pressure.
Small snapshot example of 1 second of past trades at $4.23 but watching the behaviour on the live depth action was more convincing imo.


----------



## sptrawler (27 April 2017)

So from my fundamental ideology(if that's what it is called), it would appear that there are willing sellers, at a rising price. 
Therefore if the price rises and the volume drops, it would indicate the price will rise further because people don't want to sell? even though Telstra don't have a plan?
The alternative would be, the price rises and the volume rises, which would cause a price drop, because everyone is bailing out?
Hope you don't think I'm picking your brains, just trying to get a handle on charting, before July 1


----------



## Boggo (27 April 2017)

sptrawler said:


> So from my fundamental ideology(if that's what it is called), it would appear that there are willing sellers, at a rising price.
> Therefore if the price rises and the volume drops, it would indicate the price will rise further because people don't want to sell? even though Telstra don't have a plan?
> The alternative would be, the price rises and the volume rises, which would cause a price drop, because everyone is bailing out?
> Hope you don't think I'm picking your brains, just trying to get a handle on charting, before July 1




Yes, tech/a can explain it better in VSA terms than I can but you are on the right track.
Today there were more buyers than yesterday but there were equally more sellers who were happy to sell to them and as a consequence it went nowhere (closed where it opened) even though that market sector had a small gain (XTJ - about 0.6%).
Just one day is probably not a good measure but is a clue. The bit where I get lost is how to detect who is likely to give up first, buyers or sellers


----------



## nulla nulla (27 April 2017)

The following chart is the Incredible Charts Relative Strength Index for the past six months:







It helps put the recent volumes of share turnover in perspective. Snap shots of the price action for the days 12 April - 148 million, 13 April - 102 million & 18 April - 106 million follow, where the turnover volume surged lifting the daily average share turnover from 25 million to approx. 43 million.

















With 356 million shares turning over in three days there must have been a lot of fund managers (as well as short term day traders) snapping up shares at the low prices that are now selling for a quick 4% - 5% gain.


----------



## qldfrog (27 April 2017)

nulla nulla said:


> With 356 million shares turning over in three days there must have been a lot of fund managers (as well as short term day traders) snapping up shares at the low prices that are now selling for a quick 4% - 5% gain.



 Yes was among sold 2 lots out of 3 for a quick profit


----------



## MrChow (29 April 2017)

ACCC regional roaming decision hasn't met the expected deadline, wonder if that bodes well or not for TLS.


----------



## WRiley (29 April 2017)

Read in an article over my phone this morning that a judge overturned a legal action by TLS to charge more onto Vodafone and Optus if they wished to use her (TLS') copper lines. That decision was truly against TLS' interest ! Ordered TLS to pay the legal costs for Vodafone and Optus too !


----------



## nulla nulla (5 May 2017)

I would just like to thank all the shorters that saw fit to push Telstra up to $4.45 on open today.


----------



## WRiley (5 May 2017)

So,... Telstra got the advantage in the ACCC"s ruling announced today. The ACCC will NOT regulate mobile phone infras, usage, etc,... How much will this improve Telstra's earnings compared against if the infras are opened to all operators ?


----------



## skc (5 May 2017)

WRiley said:


> So,... Telstra got the advantage in the ACCC"s ruling announced today. The ACCC will NOT regulate mobile phone infras, usage, etc,... How much will this improve Telstra's earnings compared against if the infras are opened to all operators ?




Improvement = 0. Negative impact averted = 5-10% EPS depending on which analysts you read.


----------



## WRiley (6 May 2017)

skc said:


> Improvement = 0. Negative impact averted = 5-10% EPS depending on which analysts you read.



Going by yr reasoning, if negative impact has been averted by 5 to 10%, this would MOST CERTAINLY improve the EPS,....and the 2020/21 should not be so gloomy anymore,...


----------



## skc (6 May 2017)

WRiley said:


> Going by yr reasoning, if negative impact has been averted by 5 to 10%, this would MOST CERTAINLY improve the EPS,....and the 2020/21 should not be so gloomy anymore,...




No it wouldn't improve the EPS. Most forecasts have the current ruling as base case scenario and estimated forward EPS as such. 

For example, FY20 consensus EPS estimates are 30c (as an example). If mobile roaming was declared, it would have caused 10% damage and see EPS downgraded to 27c. Given mobile roaming was NOT declared, EPS estimates remain at 30c. 

So there's no improvement to EPS.... the positives come from removing a negative sentiment, plus reducing the coverage and hence competitiveness of TPM's future mobile network.


----------



## coolcup (7 May 2017)

nulla nulla said:


> I would just like to thank all the shorters that saw fit to push Telstra up to $4.45 on open today.




Nicely done nulla. I was also so close to buying it the day it fell to $4 but chickened out. Well done for following your discipline and judgement - great return!


----------



## nulla nulla (8 May 2017)

A re-entry at this point is tempting for a longer term dividend and capital return play. However it may get cheaper yet?


----------



## Triathlete (8 May 2017)

nulla nulla said:


> A re-entry at this point is tempting for a longer term dividend and capital return play. However it may get cheaper yet?




Do you have a price level where you believe TLS is likely to move to over the next 12 months or where you will decide to liquidate your position.????


----------



## nulla nulla (8 May 2017)

I believe it will come back over $5.00+. Telstra has the jump on the opposition on 4G and probably 5G. Wi Fi will ultimately be faster than and just as reliable as internet over cable. NBN will be a white elephant by the time it gets rolled out with any semblance of national coverage in its' retarded format. Consumers are going to be streaming larger and larger amounts over wi fi and looking to the network that can consistently provide the level of support. Consumers will still trend to Telstra as the major supplier that has a demonstrated capacity to perform. Their capacity to cope has already been demonstrated with the record amounts of data that were streamed in 24 hour periods when Telstra allowed free downloads as compensation for their outages last year. If the ACCC follows through with the proposed decision, imo,  the rebound will likely be sooner than later. If the rebound takes longer there will be a few good dividends with franking credits along the way. I just see it as a win win for the patient.


----------



## WRiley (8 May 2017)

I managed to catch at 4.34 today,... near the day low ! Lucky,..I guessed,...


----------



## nulla nulla (9 May 2017)

If it drops back to the mid $4.20s (or lower) will you still consider your self lucky?


----------



## WRiley (9 May 2017)

Since I still believed in the long term value of TLS, then I would try my best to go in at every compressed price possible. Yes, coming form this angle, to be able to go in at a lower price is lucky ! It would be different though, if I don't believe in TLS. I would have cut loss earlier then,....


----------



## nulla nulla (10 May 2017)

Good luck. For the record I am holding a parcel purchased at $4.96 and I will re-enter if it drops below $4.30.


----------



## Porper (10 May 2017)

Nothing changes on the weekly chart.

The patterns are about as textbook as it gets. Impulse higher followed by a symmetrical A-B-C correction into the target area. A brave person would have reversed the short trade on the completion of the weekly bar at recent lows. Not me, but short trade closed and looking for a low risk entry. Price should bounce up toward $5.36 - $5.69 as a minimum.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (10 May 2017)

i'm in at $5.10, hoping it gets back there soon so I can sell and put money into property


----------



## MrChow (11 May 2017)

I've stated that my expectations for EPS are in the mid 20s in the medium term, with a lesser dividend and contracted PE so I obviously disagree.


----------



## Boggo (11 May 2017)

Still tending to think that it will end up closing the gap at around 4.50 to 4.56 in the box, where to then though is the question.

Another option in addition to Porper's above.


----------



## Boggo (29 May 2017)

Boggo said:


> Still tending to think that it will end up closing the gap at around 4.50 to 4.56 in the box, where to then though is the question.




Gap was closed at 4.50 as expected. In neutral now until it either breaks above 4.50 or below 4.32.
Just my


----------



## sptrawler (30 May 2017)

Your chart is still looking the goods.IMO
I still have them, still hold them for the dividend, but long term is shaky.
Unless they can come up with a plan.


----------



## Boggo (9 June 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Your chart is still looking the goods.IMO
> I still have them, still hold them for the dividend, but long term is shaky.
> Unless they can come up with a plan.




The price activity is in a critical decision area at the moment.

sptrawler, just wondering if the VOC activity may be having an impact ?


----------



## skc (9 June 2017)

Boggo said:


> The price activity is in a critical decision area at the moment.
> 
> sptrawler, just wondering if the VOC activity may be having an impact ?




TLS is a tax loss selling candidate so I'd look for weakness in the next 2 weeks and tentative bounce in last week of June to early July.


----------



## sptrawler (12 June 2017)

Boggo said:


> The price activity is in a critical decision area at the moment.
> 
> sptrawler, just wondering if the VOC activity may be having an impact ?
> 
> View attachment 71482



From what I can find on the internet, VOC major shareholders, are major shareholders of TLS. Maybe they are propping up the price, who knows, I like your underlying research better at this point in time.
http://www.afr.com/research-tools/VOC/shareholders

http://www.afr.com/research-tools/TLS/shareholders
Scroll down to the bottom of that last post.

I really don't know how this all works, I just rely on my training through the "school of hard knocks"
The thing is, I'm going to have to get more nimble, with the new "super" rules.


----------



## Boggo (13 June 2017)

sptrawler said:


> ...
> http://www.afr.com/research-tools/TLS/shareholders
> Scroll down to the bottom of that last post.
> 
> ...




Just got to the bottom of the page in that link when it told me I need to subscribe.
Will chase similiar info tomorrow via another route, Cheers.


----------



## Boggo (13 June 2017)

Boggo said:


> ...
> Will chase similiar info tomorrow via another route, Cheers.




Found another source with this list of EOFY sell off candidates

_CYBG PLC (CYB), Brambles (BXB), Star Entertainment (SGR), Navitas (NVT), Domino’s Pizza (DMP), Janus Henderson (HGG), Santos (STO), Healthscope (HSO), Medibank Private (MPL), Westfield Corp (WFD), Vicinity Centre (VCX), Harvey Norman (HVN), Carsales (CAR), Vocus (VOC), TPG Telecom (TPM), Myer (MYR) and Telstra (TLS)_


----------



## Triathlete (13 June 2017)

Boggo said:


> Gap was closed at 4.50 as expected. In neutral now until it either breaks above 4.50 or below 4.32.
> Just my
> 
> View attachment 71325




Like the look of this chart Boggo...

I am also looking for a move lower towards $3.95 to $3.75 for TLS....


----------



## Boggo (13 June 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Like the look of this chart Boggo...
> 
> I am also looking for a move lower towards $3.95 to $3.75 for TLS....




Plays by the rules doesn't it. EW has worked well on this stock for quite a while now including when it was on the way up.


----------



## Triathlete (13 June 2017)

Boggo said:


> Plays by the rules doesn't it. EW has worked well on this stock for quite a while now including when it was on the way up.




Sure does....The move up was at the levels we would have expected for this turn for the fifth wave.

The other thing for me is that it is also starting to line up with my weekly cycles which shows we are moving towards a low between 7th July and 4th August which has got me a little excited to see how this is going to play out. Time will tell I guess.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 July 2017)

looks like you getting this one right Triathlete, not much hope for long term TLS investors moving forward


----------



## sptrawler (24 July 2017)

Boggo said:


> Gap was closed at 4.50 as expected. In neutral now until it either breaks above 4.50 or below 4.32.
> Just my
> 
> View attachment 71325




Still liking your post, IMO you are still on the money.
Telstra need some Earth shattering statement, to soften the downward trajectory.IMO
Still own a few in the SMSF, but as said earlier not adding yet, untill I see a vision.


----------



## Boggo (24 July 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Still liking your post, IMO you are still on the money.
> Telstra need some Earth shattering statement, to soften the downward trajectory.IMO
> Still own a few in the SMSF, but as said earlier not adding yet, untill I see a vision.




Yes, still playing the game isn't it. At some point though it will head off in its own direction, upwardly I hope for those holding.
If it continues to follow this pattern then there is another month of downward before it hits the next decision (yellow - end of Aug) zone.
It seems to be heading down a bit too fast at the moment so there may be a long period where it hold up above the round number support at around $4.00 or may run up for a while.

An interesting exercise if nothing else 

Daily chart...


----------



## sptrawler (24 July 2017)

Boggo said:


> Yes, still playing the game isn't it. At some point though it will head off in its own direction, upwardly I hope for those holding.
> If it continues to follow this pattern then there is another month of downward before it hits the next decision (yellow - end of Aug) zone.
> It seems to be heading down a bit too fast at the moment so there may be a long period where it hold up above the round number support at around $4.00 or may run up for a while.
> 
> ...




Spot on Boggo, I'm expecting a major drop, when they announce a dividend drop.
Then I expect it will gradually rise to a benign level, reflective of the dividend, until it comes up with a plan.
If it doesn't come up with a plan, it will slide with the dividend. IMO

Then it would be eventually be bought out, by a Chinese company, IMO


----------



## notting (24 July 2017)

They did their big mobile investment thing which was good but the earth shattering miracle that got em out of the dog house to begin with was Rudds nbn gift.  They even sold that stupid Hong Kong 2b investment great!! But - 
That's over now and trust me there is no way a dog like this is going to make some earth shattering announcement.
you should all have gotten out here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-91#post-8750
If I was in I'd be looking for a last ditch bounce into the next div if they don't cut it too much, 25c ball park expectations.


----------



## Miner (24 July 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Spot on Boggo, I'm expecting a major drop, when they announce a dividend drop.
> Then I expect it will gradually rise to a benign level, reflective of the dividend, until it comes up with a plan.
> If it doesn't come up with a plan, it will slide with the dividend. IMO
> 
> Then it would be eventually be bought out, by a Chinese company, IMO



Good thoughts indeed.
My two cents, market has already discounted heavily for TLS to drop its dividend. I believe the market will bounce back because TLS will drop dividend by an amount which is lower than the market was expecting. The first day of reaction will be some drop down giving an opportunity to buy immediately for me. Unfortunately, in the past, I bought at $4.8 in this year only to be sold at $4.0. Now I am waiting for my turn to return the debt with a bang.
I do not believe China will ever try to venture into TLS. They do not have the capability nor Australian Government FIRB will allow this.
One forgotten telco is SPK or Singtel - can show wonder.
Just a few weeks to wait. DNH at the moment.


----------



## sptrawler (24 July 2017)

notting said:


> They did their big mobile investment thing which was good but the earth shattering miracle that got em out of the dog house to begin with was Rudds nbn gift.  They even sold that stupid Hong Kong 2b investment great!! But -
> That's over now and trust me there is no way a dog like this is going to make some earth shattering announcement.
> you should all have gotten out here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-91#post-8750
> If I was in I'd be looking for a last ditch bounce into the next div if they don't cut it.





The problem with that thought, from my perspective is, they have paid about $3.15 dividend since that 2007 post.
If you add on 30% franking in the SMSF, that is about $4.15 return, just back of the napkin  but it is still compelling at $3.40.
But having said that I'm thinking of bailing, just not yet


----------



## notting (25 July 2017)

sptrawler said:


> The problem with that thought, from my perspective is, they have paid about $3.15 dividend since that 2007 post.




My post suggestive of a top was July 2015!! Not 2007


----------



## Boggo (25 July 2017)

Area of interest if it turns up.


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2017)

My appologies, when i clicked on the link it showed a date of 2007, so as I've owned them forever just worked it out from that date.
Like I've said I tend to keep shares for dividend, and ride them into the ground, just have to learn when to jump off. lol


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2017)

Boggo said:


> Area of interest if it turns up.
> 
> View attachment 71986




I'm sure there will be a jump up, I've just got to work out when to jump out jump in and jump out forever. lol
The dividend won't be cut hugely IMO, they will say we are witholding capital for a major aquisition, to keep the mum and dad investors salivating.


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2017)

notting said:


> My post suggestive of a top was July 2015!! Not 2007




Actually going by your chart, if you had bought them in sept 2010 for $2.50, you would have just about got your money back in dividends, without counting the franking credits.
Now that is a real win.


----------



## notting (25 July 2017)

With respect to 'getting in,'  earlier in this thread, I was calling 'em a buy at around 2.90, from memory. But that's history.
Fundamentally They no longer have their landline monopoly which is all they ever were good for.
Now they've sold the ducts, what's left?
Soon data will be vertically free!!
There is not going to be another miracle. I'd take the run up into the div or hang on till 2.50 if you want. TPM will have far better growth prospects from that point.


----------



## sptrawler (25 July 2017)

notting said:


> With respect to 'getting in,'  earlier in this thread, I was calling 'em a buy at around 2.90, from memory. But that's history.
> Fundamentally They no longer have their landline monopoly which is all they ever were good for.
> Now they've sold the ducts, what's left?
> Soon data will be vertically free!!
> There is not going to be another miracle. I'd take the run up into the div or hang on till 2.50 if you want. TPM will have far better growth prospects from that point.




I would definitely agree.


----------



## WRiley (3 August 2017)

I'm just wondering - my average price at present is 4.65. At worst case, in the near term, if the dps is cut to 24c, I'd still be earning 5.21% gross, and if franking, it would be 7.45%. Is it that bad ?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 August 2017)

any loss of capital or no capital appreciation is bad,

to think you can hold a stock for 5yrs, 10yrs or 20yrs with no appreciation is a poor outcome


----------



## Boggo (3 August 2017)

Last time I looked the EPS was about 13c above the annual dividend of around 31c p/a.

If they can keep a gap between the two they may be able to keep the divvy where it is for now and not drop it in the reporting season.

This keeps the financial planners on side and they can quote the fantastic yield to the Mum and Dad investors.

Next four weeks should be interesting.

Daily chart...


----------



## WRiley (3 August 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> any loss of capital or no capital appreciation is bad,
> 
> to think you can hold a stock for 5yrs, 10yrs or 20yrs with no appreciation is a poor outcome



I plan to sit it out by continuing to collect dividend, while waiting for TLS to turnaround and provide capital gain, ie rise above my average price later-on,... of course, the assumption here is, TLS can rise above my average price later-on with incremental earnings reported,...


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (3 August 2017)

thats what I hoping for also, very frustrating though


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 August 2017)

Their customer service is crap. 

All the fundamental and charting analysis cannot get away from that. 

Unfortunately I hold some. 

gg


----------



## Triathlete (4 August 2017)

WRiley said:


> I'm just wondering - my average price at present is 4.65. At worst case, in the near term, if the dps is cut to 24c, I'd still be earning 5.21% gross, and if franking, it would be 7.45%. Is it that bad ?



Well lets see $4.65 - $4.07 =minus -$0.58 on share price
$0.58/$4.65= -12% capital loss so far
-12%-7.25%= minus -4.75% return so far on your investment
does not look like a good return to me at the moment....and still looks to be going lower..


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 August 2017)

its no wonder people keep putting money into property, even leaving 1 mil odd homes with no tenants in them across the country


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 August 2017)

When one is running a portfolio such a SMSF, it is important to take in to consideration the long term.

Although I hold TLS at a loss I am happy with the divi.

If that goes there will be some cross trading in to other entities pretty quick and active trading.

All evens out. 

I've had some wins and some losses.

gg


----------



## WRiley (5 August 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Well lets see $4.65 - $4.07 =minus -$0.58 on share price
> $0.58/$4.65= -12% capital loss so far
> -12%-7.25%= minus -4.75% return so far on your investment
> does not look like a good return to me at the moment....and still looks to be going lower..



Tq Triathelete,... appreciated your calculations,... at least I know someone is watching and helping to count,...

Well,... if TLS does not DROP the dpu to 12c immediately on the next reporting, AND the SP does NOT drop quickly below $4.05 moving fwd,... that -4.75% will be lower from the next payout for a start. But, mathematically, yeah,... I will need time to recoup my losses,... during which I can't sell at all. During this period of holding hopefully the half-yearly dpu does not reach 12c, and the SP does not drop too low.


----------



## WRiley (5 August 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> When one is running a portfolio such a SMSF, it is important to take in to consideration the long term.
> 
> Although I hold TLS at a loss I am happy with the divi.
> 
> ...



Yes,... I know this path,... but this only works for an investor who has held long enough, for which he has received sufficient payouts over the years, AND he has invested those payouts into ctrs that earned him more. The 'compunding' effect from the earning more will even out the cap losses,.. I have counted for some ctrs that I held-on long term, and the divvies collected actually cut down the losses when I sold below my Buy price.

There has even been instances too that the total divvies collected over the years and the 'compounding' effect actually made me gains after minussing out the realized cap losses upon selling !


----------



## WRiley (5 August 2017)

Sadly,... after saying all the above, I have not held-on long enough for TLS, and have not managed to reap sufficient benefits in time before the tide turns,...


----------



## Triathlete (5 August 2017)

WRiley said:


> Tq Triathelete,... appreciated your calculations,... at least I know someone is watching and helping to count,...
> 
> Well,... if TLS does not DROP the dpu to 12c immediately on the next reporting, AND the SP does NOT drop quickly below $4.05 moving fwd,... that -4.75% will be lower from the next payout for a start. But, mathematically, yeah,... I will need time to recoup my losses,... during which I can't sell at all. During this period of holding hopefully the half-yearly dpu does not reach 12c, and the SP does not drop too low.



Everyone has their own reasons for buying stocks and the returns they expect.Whenever I take a position I will always have a price I expect a stock to go too and a price where I know I am wrong  based on the analysis I do.
If you go back through this particular thread their were many contributors who had called a low around $4.15 many months before and so backed the call to short the stock.
We saw it then bounce back up from their which was playing out exactly as would be expected based on EW so there was the next phase down to come, and also in a comment back in June 13th when the stock was still at $4.35


Triathlete said:


> Like the look of this chart Boggo...
> 
> I am also looking for a move lower towards $3.95 to $3.75 for TLS....






Triathlete said:


> Sure does....The move up was at the levels we would have expected for this turn for the fifth wave.
> 
> The other thing for me is that it is also starting to line up with my weekly cycles which shows we are moving towards a low between 7th July and 4th August which has got me a little excited to see how this is going to play out. Time will tell I guess.




Will it go lower probably after the next dividend.....Boggo has some great charts on this stock and is worth going through and taking a look if you have not already.


Boggo said:


> Yes, still playing the game isn't it. At some point though it will head off in its own direction, upwardly I hope for those holding.
> If it continues to follow this pattern then there is another month of downward before it hits the next decision (yellow - end of Aug) zone.
> It seems to be heading down a bit too fast at the moment so there may be a long period where it hold up above the round number support at around $4.00 or may run up for a while.
> 
> ...


----------



## sptrawler (13 August 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> When one is running a portfolio such a SMSF, it is important to take in to consideration the long term.
> 
> Although I hold TLS at a loss I am happy with the divi.
> 
> ...




I'm the same as you, I will be jumping horse, very soon. Just have to check when the the next report is due.


----------



## sptrawler (13 August 2017)

My money is still on Boggo.
As I've said on numerous occasions, unless TLS comes up with a strategy, they will end up just another re seller.
They had the opportunity, to diversify into cross media, but were too busy pulling the t!ts off the cow.
Now they seem to be begging people to stay with them.
I'm lightening up, the dividend has to be squeezed soon.IMO


----------



## Boggo (16 August 2017)

sptrawler said:


> ...
> I'm lightening up, the dividend has to be squeezed soon.IMO




Approaching an area of potential resistance now sptrawler, should be interesting 

Daily chart


----------



## Triathlete (16 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Approaching an area of potential resistance now sptrawler, should be interesting
> 
> Daily chart
> View attachment 72261



I would be looking for a another sell off again at those levels, trying to suck people in me thinks ....


----------



## sptrawler (16 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Approaching an area of potential resistance now sptrawler, should be interesting
> 
> Daily chart
> View attachment 72261




The institutions have too much skin in the game, for there to be an absolute crash. Even with a mediocre report, after the initial fall a rebound will be required, for the insto bail outs.IMO


----------



## MrChow (16 August 2017)

TLS drawdown was -35% in the past 2 years.

My forecast has been for around $2.50 SP post NBN construction era.

So I don't see going to the $3.80 region as a big move for TLS.


----------



## Boggo (16 August 2017)

The pics below are from the online sites of two businesses that I deal with here in SA.
The update on the top pic is from Monday, problem has been going since May !
The bottom pic is from two weeks ago but will be there for a while I would guess.

Onya Telstra.








	

		
			
		

		
	
 .


----------



## sptrawler (16 August 2017)

Interesting today, more buyers than sellers, price climb over past few days incredible.
Now we wait for what tomorrow brings, I'm on the edge of my seat, more tension than a Dockers game.LOL


----------



## Boggo (16 August 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Interesting today, more buyers than sellers, price climb over past few days incredible.
> Now we wait for what tomorrow brings, I'm on the edge of my seat, more tension than a Dockers game.LOL




 Yes, at a very interesting point now.
Wasn't around to see the action but the after close depth has a few big sellers. I suspect that there would have been a few of them all day but someone is buying what they are selling.

After close depth, individual sellers circled at $4.33.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2017)

Sic transit gloria Telstra.

A divi and a close within my loss area and I'll be out and happy. 

gg


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## Boggo (16 August 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sic transit gloria Telstra.
> 
> A divi and a close within my loss area and I'll be out and happy.
> 
> gg




Got a feeling that you won't be alone GG


----------



## skc (16 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Got a feeling that you won't be alone GG



TLS's reporting tomorrow with the key being the capital management decision. Will they or won't they cut 

FY18 dividend? Or may be they will securitise NBN cashflows? Will there be share buyback? Or may be it's all undecided and investors will have to wait until closer to the November deadline?

If TLS is trading closer to $4 then it feels like plenty of downside priced in, but the rally in the past week means that there's scope for some downside. My guess is that, the more concrete details on capital management released, the better the share price reaction. Barring a major hiccup in the current year numbers of course.

For the record consensus @ 32c EP and 15.6c final dividend.


----------



## PZ99 (17 August 2017)

Slashed profit and divvy 

Telstra has slashed its dividend outlook and reported a 34 per cent slump in full-year profit to $3.9 billion.

The result was down from last year's $5.8 billion profit, but still roughly in line with expectations after the sale of Telstra's $1.8 billion stake in the Chinese Autohome venture.

Telstra announced it would pay a full-year dividend of 31 cents per share this year, which was below market expectations.

However, the future looks a lot bleaker for investors' cherished dividends.

Telstra said it would cut next years full-year payout by 30 per cent to just 22 cents per share.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/telstra-result/8815342


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## sptrawler (17 August 2017)

Well we can't say we didn't call it.


----------



## PZ99 (17 August 2017)

It was a good call. Might visit sub 4's soon ?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (17 August 2017)

maybe end the day down 5%,


----------



## Wysiwyg (17 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Yes, at a very interesting point now.
> Wasn't around to see the action but the after close depth has a few big sellers. I suspect that there would have been a few of them all day but someone is buying what they are selling.
> 
> After close depth, individual sellers circled at $4.33.



Surely the buying was momentum related and/or being duped into believing the report was going to be great.


----------



## Boggo (17 August 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Surely the buying was momentum related and/or being duped into believing the report was going to be great.




I wasn't able to see the price and depth action yesterday but I suspect that it was an induced upswing that would have suckered in quite a few.
There is a good chance that there will also be a bit of "it's a bargain at this price" buying for a while now too.

Then again we may have seen the bottom


----------



## oldblue (17 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> I wasn't able to see the price and depth action yesterday but I suspect that it was an induced upswing that would have suckered in quite a few.
> There is a good chance that there will also be a bit of "it's a bargain at this price" buying for a while now too.
> 
> Then again we may have seen the bottom




That seems to have covered all possibilities!


----------



## Boggo (17 August 2017)

One opinion but many possibilities [emoji851]


----------



## rb250660 (17 August 2017)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> maybe end the day down 5%,




5% down hey?


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## Toyota Lexcen (17 August 2017)

thought it might rebound as I feel the dividend cut was built into the share price over the past 6-12months and it would have a down day as its confirmed to the market

i sold out yesterday at 4.30, lost $6000, bought in at $5.10 around 2-3yrs ago collected a few dividends along the way and just have to hold the loss against anything i have capital gain against in the future

from what I can gather TLS is really at the crossroads of how it is going to move forward, some articles talk about selling off the NBN payments, some hope NBN Co reduce access fees,

you have TPG entering the mobile network,


----------



## MrChow (17 August 2017)

TLS board comparison:

ASF predicted what happened, HC 200 posts from delusional gamblers telling everyone to buy their losses.


----------



## sptrawler (17 August 2017)

MrChow said:


> TLS board comparison:
> 
> ASF predicted what happened, HC 200 posts from delusional gamblers telling everyone to buy their losses.



I think we will see Boggo's prediction of $3.50, in the short to medium term, then your prediction of $2.50 in the longer term.
They really only have themselves to blame, relying on a gold plated system, that is tarnishing more every day. The end result will be just another telecom re seller, unless they can come up with the magic pudding, but they have already had plenty of time to find it to no avail.
Once they settle into stable model, after the NBN and they have transparent ongoing growth and income, they will probably be a good income stream.
But I believe, a lot of water has to go under the bridge, before that happens. Just my opinion.


----------



## MrChow (17 August 2017)

I'll probably be proven wrong.

But one thing I know is that having an informed investment method gives you a better chance than investing based on pumping and confirmation bias.


----------



## Boggo (17 August 2017)

sptrawler said:


> ...
> They really only have themselves to blame, relying on a gold plated system, that is tarnishing more every day. The end result will be just another telecom re seller, unless they can come up with the magic pudding, but they have already had plenty of time to find it to no avail.




Yes, an attitude towards the public like they have and there really is only one way it's going to go but they still don't seem to get it.

Once the planners all start having to explain to their clients why both the price and the yield is falling Mum and Dad sentiment will change to reflect reality, imo.


----------



## PZ99 (18 August 2017)

A bit of light reading 



> *Telstra: Stockbrokers describe 'extraordinary' market scenes as investors dump communications giant*
> 
> Telstra is the most widely held stock by small investors, partly because of its big dividend — but that is all about to change.
> 
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/telstra-dividend-slash-sobering,-says-investor/8817882


----------



## Triathlete (18 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Plays by the rules doesn't it. EW has worked well on this stock for quite a while now including when it was on the way up.



*Exactly..!!...Spot on with your previous charts Boggo.....good work....!!

*


Triathlete said:


> I am also looking for a move lower towards *$3.95 to $3.75 for TLS*....[/*QUOTE]*
> I guess this from Jun13 turned out ok....
> 
> I wonder if their is going to be further downside.......any further views at this early stage, I am out at the moment???


----------



## sptrawler (18 August 2017)

Talk about luck, I wonder what TLS would have gone to today, without the trading halt.


----------



## MrChow (18 August 2017)

I've examined the announcements again and am actually more bullish on the rebasing of earnings post NBN completion, but am more bearish on organic prospects.

So I am updating my model with the new information (apologies if getting repetitive):

Earnings Rebase:
-35% NBN completion by 2021
-5% NBN Securitization Spinoff by 2019
-40% Total

Offset by initiatives:
+15% Cost Cutting by 2022
+5% Capex Investment Returns by 2021
+5% Buybacks from Spinoff Proceeds by 2019
+25% Total

So we're looking at being -15% for an EPS rebase which gets us to around 28c.

That is higher than other figures I've projected between 25-27c previously.  So to project a floor price I'd use a decade low average PE of 10 that get's us closer to $2.80 which if given some margin for error indicates a downside range of between $2.50-$3.

The main issue with this now though is that the 3 divisions (Mobile, Fixed, Data IP) that make up 80% of earnings all had organic declines.  Given there's no forecast for these divisions in the same way TLS has provided forecasts for the earnings rebase the simpliest thing to do is just budget for flat organic returns which means it has no affect on the model which may turn out to be a generous assumption.

I should point out that it may not be even that complicated. The TLDR method is that every All Ordinaries stock in the 2008-2009 period had a -30% SP loss so that would project similarly at $2.50-$3.


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## Boggo (18 August 2017)

There is a possibility that it will close this gap, may sucker a few in.
It has hit the predicted minimum target area, could be more to go as others like sptrawler and Triathlete are saying.

Daily at Aug 17th.


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## So_Cynical (19 August 2017)

At some point the bad announcements and negative sentiment will stop, the mobile network is still a major asset and they have cash, another buy back down the road perhaps?...there are worse stocks, the challenge is to identify the bottom.

I figure the smarter money has been selling over the last 12 to 18 months expecting the divi cut to come, the not so smart money sold after the announcement, how many more bad announcements to come? this is the question.


----------



## galumay (19 August 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> how many more bad announcements to come?




Its hard to know with Telstra, one thing that occours to me is that they are such a badly run company, with such a bad reputation with consumers that there are presumably not too many more things that could go wrong!

I have never looked into TLS in detail so have no idea what sort of valuation I would find for it, but if I were interested that would be my starting point, try to work out what the business is really worth going forward. The old addage that there is no company so bad that its expensive at any price rings true.


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## rb250660 (19 August 2017)

Anecdotally, the thing with Telstra, and I speak for myself and many people I know, is that we wouldn't even consider using another mobile carrier. I used to work in the bush and if you had Telstra mobile you got full reception, other carriers were 'No service'. This is the case at times in densely crowded city areas too I've found in the past. I've been with Telstra mobile for 21 years continuously and I'm not about to change.


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## galumay (19 August 2017)

rb250660 said:


> I've been with Telstra mobile for 21 years continuously and I'm not about to change.




I live in a remote area, for many years we had no choice but to accept the price gouging rougues, Tel$tra, but those days are gone now, there are resellers of the network that are much cheaper and people are moving in droves. So the days of TLS having dominance in the bush are disappearing, other networks are gaining as well, the days of TLS having the bush to themselves to rip off are going.

Regardless, its probably the one area of the business where they still dominate and hold a reasonable market share. TLS was greatly helped by the taxpayer paying for the mobile network infrastructure - and then having to pay TLS to use the network they had paid for!! Nice corporate welfare if you can get it!

The question is, even if you are right and they can at least maintain their market share in mobile, how much is that part of the business worth in a per share sense? I have no idea, but i bet its less than $3.


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## Boggo (19 August 2017)

galumay said:


> ...
> So the days of TLS having dominance in the bush are disappearing, other networks are gaining as well, the days of TLS having the bush to themselves to rip off are going.
> ...




Mate of mine has a shack on the Yorke Peninsula and when we were there last time a discussion came up about phone companies etc.
I am with Optus and he is with telstra and he used to have better reception with telstra than what I would have with Optus. He still thought that telstra was the only one that would work there.
I showed him my phone which had 5 bars of reception while his had three .

This got me fired up yesterday.
Mother in law who is 79 and slowing down a bit has a mobile phone plan with telstra that has expired.
My wife has explained that there are now cheaper plans etc available that we need to look at for her.

Yesterday my wife got a call saying that she had been to a telstra shop and she was going to keep this phone because the nice man had "given" her $30 credit on her phone.

Wifey spent the next 10 minutes trying to explain that the $30 that the "nice man" had given her would actually appear on her next telstra bill, I still don't think she understands and needless to say any further contact re new phone is not to happen without supervision.
Wrong way to treat customers telstra


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## Bill M (19 August 2017)

When I go into shopping malls the Telstra shop still has more customers than the Optus and Vodafone ones do. Plus all my mates tell me their Telstra mobile and 4G networks have more coverage than anyone else. Not much to go on but that's what I see and that's what people tell me.

Also, people are writing off the dividend as though there won't be any anymore. Even with the slashing of the dividend to 22c per share per year, it means that at the current price of $3.90 it equates to a fully franked dividend of 5.6%.

Having said all that doesn't mean diddly squat, it is what it is and the dividend to come this Month is still 15.5c per share. I hold a small parcel of TLS and I am not selling as it is in my super fund and it is in pension phase so all those franking credits come back to me as well.

I might add, I cut all my services from Telstra and I use just about everyone else for everything. TPG for unlimited NBN, Amaysim, Aldi and Lebara for mobile. All of those have better deals price and allowance wise than Telstra. 

Maybe what they need to do is meet the market price wise. If they did that perhaps they might just knock off the competition, but as long as prices remain higher than others things might get worse. Just my  worth.


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## MrChow (19 August 2017)

Even with positive characteristics about it's regional monopoly and instrastructure - Mobile Earnings declined in FY17.  They did grow subscriber numbers but ARPU declined.  I'm not sure that's a good thing.


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## Triathlete (20 August 2017)

sptrawler said:


> I think we will see Boggo's prediction of $3.50, in the short to medium term, then your prediction of $2.50 in the longer term.



I have to agree also based on EW at the moment...


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## galumay (20 August 2017)

Boggo said:


> Wrong way to treat customers telstra




Its a constant story with TLS, after all these years, customer service is still some of the worst in Australia. That inability to change the culture worries me in terms of management competence.

With NBN i see it every day, we do the NBN installs here and Telstra stuff up orders and provisioning all the time, they have really struggled with the transition from being a wholesaler to a retailer of broadband. 

I have never looked at TLS as being an investible business, but if I did I would want a larger margin of safety to compensate for the culture and management!


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## Miner (20 August 2017)

galumay said:


> Its hard to know with Telstra, one thing that occours to me is that they are such a badly run company, with such a bad reputation with consumers that there are presumably not too many more things that could go wrong!
> 
> I have never looked into TLS in detail so have no idea what sort of valuation I would find for it, but if I were interested that would be my starting point, try to work out what the business is really worth going forward. The old addage that there is no company so bad that its expensive at any price rings true.



I am not a great fan of Telstra but I often hear bad customer service. Telstra's customer services are far superior nowadays than getting someone on the phone at Amaysim, TPG, VOC, Optus and alike. Telstra at least returns the phone call.
What has recently called to ASIC (if I may digress)? What was the waiting time - 26 minutes or so. My house falls ironically in an area where I have the only choice - TELSTRA and Cable for Big Pond. The person stays next door enjoys ADSL but unhappy with TPG.
Put a buy note @$3.50 on TLS.
Please also consider the volume TLS holding by all investment brokers and super funds. So they will all try to pump the shares as best as they can consolidate over next two weeks. So my gut feeling TLS will not go down below $3.8 until another 4 weeks.
DNH


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## So_Cynical (21 August 2017)

Miner said:


> Put a buy note @$3.50 on TLS.
> Please also consider the volume TLS holding by all investment brokers and super funds. So they will all try to pump the shares as best as they can consolidate over next two weeks. So my gut feeling TLS will not go down below $3.8 until another 4 weeks.
> DNH




Yep, pick a price level under $3.80 and accumulate without getting carried away or like you're in a hurry, cos this mite take a while, bottom could be close or 18 months away.


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## Miner (23 August 2017)

So_Cynical said:


> Yep, pick a price level under $3.80 and accumulate without getting carried away or like you're in a hurry, cos this mite take a while, bottom could be close or 18 months away.



Thanks So Cynical for your endorsement of my strategy. I will try not to be impatient.


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## Quant (23 August 2017)

What I want to know is , has anyone made any money shorting this or is this a room of analysts . Given the conviction from a few in here I " hope " someone exploited the downside .

Oh and fwiw

I think at 12 x 2020 TLS  ( $2.80 )   becomes compelling value for SMSF with sustainable grossed up yield of 10% VERY attractive  , alerts are in at $3.00


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## Toyota Lexcen (30 August 2017)

top 20 aussie company


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## Porper (30 August 2017)

Quant said:


> What I want to know is , has anyone made any money shorting this or is this a room of analysts . Given the conviction from a few in here I " hope " someone exploited the downside .




Both myself and Boggo disclosed our short positions months ago. I closed out a while ago as posted at the time. Not sure if Boggo is still holding...doing very nicely if he is.

The patterns lack symmetry for me so no intention of trading again any time soon.


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## MrChow (30 August 2017)

Could say it's not bad value at $3.50 at a 2020 PE of 13 with a 7% grossed up yield.

But that assumes no economic cycle bottom by 2021 with TLS at 10 PE or starting with a $2...

And the business case assumes once the rebase happens TLS can at least maintain earnings.


----------



## galumay (30 August 2017)

The news just gets worse for Tel$tra, it has dropped plan to securitise receivables from NBN after NBN said they would not approve it.


----------



## pinkboy (30 August 2017)

galumay said:


> The news just gets worse for Tel$tra, it has dropped plan to securitise receivables from NBN after NBN said they would not approve it.



Coincidence the bad news masked on ex div day....

pinkboy


----------



## skc (30 August 2017)

galumay said:


> The news just gets worse for Tel$tra, it has dropped plan to securitise receivables from NBN after NBN said they would not approve it.




I am confused why does the NBN need to approve it... what TLS does with it's current and future cashflow sounds like TLS's business.

It is actually not that much of a game changer. The real difference is a bit of interest arbitrage and a general good feeling of getting a lump sum to nurse the big dividend cut. It may change the buyback prospective but that seems secondary.

TLS still has lots of cashflow. The problem is where can they invest it (in meaningful size) to make good returns. Their record is patchy at best... they bought crap like The Trading Post, but they did get a win in that Chinese online business (the name escapes me at present). The mistake of course is that they took profit on that business and used it to buyback TLS shares! So I have no idea whether it's a good thing or not if TLS can't do buyback with the NBN securitisation proceed...


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 August 2017)

TLS need to make a huge special dividend to restore value in their stock. Otherwise the shorts will crucify it.


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## sptrawler (5 September 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> TLS need to make a huge special dividend to restore value in their stock. Otherwise the shorts will crucify it.




My guess is it has gone past that, the churn to other telcos with the NBN, will cause a stampede from their mobile service next. 
Once people have broken the bond with their landline and email address, the migration from their mobile service will happen, at end of contract.
Telstra has waited too long to address the impending train wreck, they still are perceived as a high cost service and other providers are waiting to pounce. IMO it is game over and a new sp floor has to be found, that will take some time. Like I said just my opinion. 
I have off loaded all my TLS.


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## MrChow (6 September 2017)

I made a significant error in my information.

TLS revealed underlying earnings for 2017 were 25c with a further -25% hit from NBN to come.

(That is much worse than my own illustration where I used pre-NBN earnings of 33c EPS as the starting base).

So this would now take us down to 19c EPS / offset by projects aiming for 4c EPS = 23c EPS in 2021 post-NBN completion.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 September 2017)

Seems to have bounced up today.

gg


----------



## Miner (7 September 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Seems to have bounced up today.
> 
> gg



short term or sustainable bounce?


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## Boggo (4 October 2017)

sptrawer, Triathlete and others following TLS progression, updated follow on from when we were looking at a distant projection back here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-105#post-953754

First close into the blue today, timewise too into the Sept Oct area.

Downward trend shows no sign of abating, Triathlete your next level may not be far off !!!


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## sptrawler (4 October 2017)

Boggo said:


> sptrawer, Triathlete and others following TLS progression, updated follow on from when we were looking at a distant projection back here...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tls-telstra-corporation.4270/page-105#post-953754
> 
> First close into the blue today, timewise too into the Sept Oct area.
> ...




You were spot on Boggo, I tend to think Triathlete's idea of the $2.80 mark, will be the settling area. 
They really are rudderless ATM, so it will depend a lot on where there earnings slide stops, then a sustainable dividend yield and P/E will become obvious.
They really have lost control of the "footy", so to speak.
Thanks for all the charts and explanations posted Boggo, they were much appreciated.


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## So_Cynical (5 October 2017)

Entered yesterday - sub 3.50 is about right, i like the Belong strategy, a low price point (budget) alternative...i like stocks in transition.


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## sptrawler (17 October 2017)

The Chairman's report isn't good reading, no new growth engine, just more of the same and hope they deliver it better than the opposition.

Mobile subscriber price per megabyte fell 99%, in the last 8 years and still trending down.
NBN roll out accelerated post 2013, will be a $3billion hit to earnings.
Fourth mobile phone network, to bring prices down further.
Yikes!!


----------



## Jimbo55 (11 November 2017)

Morning, afternoon, evening! 
I’m a newby. Not much in experience. I wanted to get my feet wet and start off with a trade with Telstra. What does everyone think about these buys? I know there is a lot of negative sentiment out there about Telstra, especially with the drop in dividend payouts, but the price seems pretty low, and I’m happy to wait 10+ years for a return. Right now seems to be the lowest price point in years. Do people think it will drop any further?! Is this stock too risky or worth a punt?! I really only want to concentrate on big name stocks (foolish some might say) as it will be easier for me to follow any stock market chatter whether to buy sell or hold these big name stocks going into the future.....


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## Triathlete (11 November 2017)

Jimbo55 said:


> Morning, afternoon, evening!
> I’m a newby. Not much in experience. I wanted to get my feet wet and start off with a trade with Telstra. What does everyone think about these buys? I know there is a lot of negative sentiment out there about Telstra, especially with the drop in dividend payouts, but the price seems pretty low, and I’m happy to wait 10+ years for a return. Right now seems to be the lowest price point in years. Do people think it will drop any further?! Is this stock too risky or worth a punt?! I really only want to concentrate on big name stocks (foolish some might say) as it will be easier for me to follow any stock market chatter whether to buy sell or hold these big name stocks going into the future.....



Even though Telstra has dropped in price significantly we cannot be sure if we are at the bottom just yet, there are still signs that a move towards $2.50 is possible just as a move up from these levels is possible.

I would start by reading this thread from 2015 to understand how some of the ASF community had been seeing Telstra in there view it makes interesting reading as well as some explanations with charts.
I would suggest that you spend time learning about Fundamentals and Technicals before investing your hard earned money in any stock.


Jimbo55 said:


> and I’m happy to wait 10+ years for a return.



 This is not the way to look at investing in my opinion. you need to look for companies that are growing into the future and if they also pay a dividend that is a bonus. You need to look at companies that will make returns on your investment each and every year....
Good Luck.


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## Jimbo55 (11 November 2017)

Triathlete said:


> Even though Telstra has dropped in price significantly we cannot be sure if we are at the bottom just yet, there are still signs that a move towards $2.50 is possible just as a move up from these levels is possible.
> 
> I would start by reading this thread from 2015 to understand how some of the ASF community had been seeing Telstra in there view it makes interesting reading as well as some explanations with charts.
> I would suggest that you spend time learning about Fundamentals and Technicals before investing your hard earned money in any stock.
> ...



I will certainly spend some time reading through the thread. I didn’t really have much planned for the weekend anyway 
Does anyone else want to put in their two cents regarding Telstra shares ?


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## tech/a (11 November 2017)

Go where the money is and go there often.
Look at other sectors.
Lithium
Resource
Health

To name a few


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## brty (11 November 2017)

I fully agree with Tech/A here. Why waste time on something that might gain or lose 20-50% over the next year or so when other aspects of the market are flying with 200-1000% over a couple of weeks or months.
Yes you miss cap gains tax exemptions, big deal, get use to paying lots of tax if you want to be successful.


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## Jimbo55 (11 November 2017)

brty said:


> I fully agree with Tech/A here. Why waste time on something that might gain or lose 20-50% over the next year or so when other aspects of the market are flying with 200-1000% over a couple of weeks or months.
> Yes you miss cap gains tax exemptions, big deal, get use to paying lots of tax if you want to be successful.



I really don’t think I’d be lucky enough to find a stock that is going to give such gains (200%). I think my best chance would be for a asx100 company. I’m struggling as it is to find a reliable resource to seek advice from in terms of which shares to buy/sell/hold even for your household names


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## brty (11 November 2017)

Household names are not the section of the market where the gains are being made. You are looking left instead of right.

If you are looking for safety, good resource or income with very tiny risk, the returns are likely to be minor.
You do NOT bet the farm on any one play, but use the sorts of things taught and shown that work on so many threads. 
Bet small, be prepared to lose, but let winners run.

The stock I mentioned on another thread, pretty much has nothing but an idea, but when I entered had a relatively low number of shares on issue, had a market cap of only $4m so not much above shell value, plus an idea or plan. I certainly did not want to hold for a long time, but a couple of positive looking announcements in the current market and it flew. It was only TA and experience I bought it on.

I can't find a good reliable household name to bet on at present either, yet making plenty at the other end of the market that is actually moving!!


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## pixel (11 November 2017)

Triathlete said:


> You need to look at companies that will make returns on your investment each and every year....



spot-on 
... and if they stop rising, sell them and replace them with shares in a company that does promise to rise. "promise" not as in "make big promises in glossy advertorial style", but "in the process of being re-rated by the Market, and rising".

PS: If you can, grab hold of a copy of Marcus Padley's commentary in today's weekend papers, e.g. The Weekend West.


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## Triathlete (12 November 2017)

pixel said:


> spot-on
> ... and if they stop rising, sell them and replace them with shares in a company that does promise to rise. "promise" not as in "make big promises in glossy advertorial style", but "in the process of being re-rated by the Market, and rising".
> 
> PS: *If you can, grab hold of a copy of Marcus Padley's commentary in today's weekend papers, e.g. The Weekend West*.



www.pressreader.com/australia/the-west-australian/20171111/282797831656055


----------



## Boggo (11 December 2017)

Where to next, needs to close this gap.


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## sptrawler (11 December 2017)

I wonder who or what is driving the share price, I haven't been keeping an eye on them recently.


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## sptrawler (13 December 2017)

There are a lot of shares changing hands, and a lot of buy recommendations, there is a valuation of $4.40 on one.
I don't know what they are smoking.
Anyway, I'll sit on the fence and wait for the hype to settle, still backing Boggo and Triathlete's original prognosis.


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## pixel (21 December 2017)

Today's Option Expiry has probably some influence on the sp.
I have support at $3.61, which "just so happens" to be a significant Fibonacci level. If it plays out "by the book", $3.96 could be in sight.


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## PZ99 (15 February 2018)

Telstra has seen its first half profit fall by 6 per cent as its sales revenue flat-lined and the impact of the NBN and write down of its video streaming business took its toll.







http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-...ofit-drops-6-per-cent-to-$1.7-billion/9449266

Sales,  profit loss and lower divvies. Is the worst over or yet to come?


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## sptrawler (15 February 2018)

I find it interesting that the dividend is 7.5c and a special dividend of 3.5c, if this is the first step toward a dividend of 7.5c, the worst is yet to come.

The biggest problem telstra have IMO is, they seem to stuff up every opportunity to branch into new areas, the latest write down being one of a many.
It is a very competitive field and the opposition where given a big leg up when they entered Australia, at Telstra's expense.


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## pixel (15 February 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I find it interesting that the dividend is 7.5c and a special dividend of 3.5c, if this is the first step toward a dividend of 7.5c, the worst is yet to come.
> 
> The biggest problem telstra have IMO is, they seem to stuff up every opportunity to branch into new areas, the latest write down being one of a many.
> It is a very competitive field and the opposition where given a big leg up when they entered Australia, at Telstra's expense.



Telstra had a much too easy ride for much too long.
Remember, they were given an $11B present from the taxpayer for the suburban copper network, which was in most parts corroded and in disrepair. It had been known for years that it had far exceeded its use-by date; therefore, only the absolute minimum was done to maintain it fit for the old steam phone purposes. Consequently, most of those $11B were in fact a net profit - once off.
And who benefits the most from the need to patch up the inevitable breakdowns and the subsequent NBN stuff-ups? SSM of course. Now SSM have the quasi-monopoly in network maintenance, and their soaring profit results a showing the utter stupidity of turfing it out. As a TLS subsidiary, it would substantially enhance the bottom line...


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## moXJO (20 March 2018)

I had my business phones set up with them and it was almost double the price of what a competitor was offering.
It took over a month and a half of telstra stuffing around just to get the complex service off the line so I could port the numbers.

From the sounds of it, there was mass migration going on. They even tried to get me to stay by offering me a deal that was still way over. While also under delivering services. That was after I told them what deal I was getting with the other mob.

Been a while since they were this bad.


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## tinhat (20 March 2018)

I took most of my profits some time ago. I only have a tiny portion left in the self managed super and my Mother's income portfolio. The problem is I churned a fair chunk of my investment in TLS into VOC and TPM and I've now got bloody hands from catching those two falling knives. I swore that would be the last time I try to pick the bottom of a stock price and I've since developed some further TA rules around value buying.

As someone who uses very little data and rarely uses my mobile (limited reception where I live - I have to go to the road to make a call) I find their tablet plans on a 24 month contract quite reasonable.

They had a great deal a while ago where I got a Samsung Tab A and 1.5GB of data (somehow I managed to wrangle an extra 0.5GB of data from them under the contract) for $15 a month. Unfortunately, I accidently left the tablet on the roof of my car while unloading it and I ran the tablet over a few weeks ago. The tablet was actually bent like a banana and the screen was all smashed but it miraculously continued to work for a while the battery has now died. I've got four months ($60) until the contract ran out and when I asked Telsta what it would cost to early terminate they said $180.

I just got my Mum a Samsung Tab 8 (9.7") with 1GB data for $30 a month on 24 month contract. We share a total of 3GB data on the account and never use it. $10 per GB automatic top-up if we do seems a good deal.


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## greggles (18 April 2018)

A 10 year chart provides an interesting perspective on Telstra. 

There are few industries that have seen as much deregulation and competition as telecommunications and Telstra has been the big loser since peaking at around $6.75 in early 2015.

However, there are signs that it may be starting to bottom out. Dividend yield is around 7%, so it appears to be mostly negative sentiment that is dragging it down at the moment. $3 appears to be a key level, so it will be interesting to see where it goes from here.


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## Triathlete (22 April 2018)

I always like to go back and see how a stock has unfolded to see whether the analysis has turned out correctly or not.

I find this really can help your confidence as far as what you expect the market or individual stocks to do.Telstra has been one of those stocks that has seemed to follow EW theory...

Back on the 27th Aug 2015 the long term view using Elliott wave was showing the start of a wave 2 by my calculations and was at $5.90 with a view that it could go as low as $2.55.

Looking at the closing price on Friday we are now at $3.08 it will be interesting to continue to watch what happens from here.



Triathlete said:


> I agree with you on knowing the likely probabilities......and whether you are able to get them in your favour or not before you invest or trade..
> 
> I also like to trade on...* "what I know and see and not what I think"*
> 
> ...




Time to sit and wait for a wave 3 turnaround me thinks. Of course the stock could still continue lower and then who knows we may get a move sideways for some time until we get some positive news on the stock which will start to propel the stock higher.....


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## Triathlete (15 May 2018)

Triathlete said:


> Back on the 27th Aug 2015 the long term view using Elliott wave was showing the start of a wave 2 by my calculations and was at $5.90 with a view that it could go as low as $2.55.




Looks like the $2.55 is getting closer after today close.....How much further is Telstra going to fall??  

Any views on the stock after the latest announcement.???


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## greggles (16 May 2018)

Triathlete said:


> Looks like the $2.55 is getting closer after today close.....How much further is Telstra going to fall??
> 
> Any views on the stock after the latest announcement.???




I think it'll get back to that $2.55 low it reached at the end of 2010. It almost seems a bit inevitable when looking at a 10 year chart. TLS in a really competitive sector with slim margins and it has a lot of infrastructure to maintain. It will never be a growth stock again and there are so many other better opportunities out there IMO.


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## fiftyeight (20 May 2018)

Why do carriers allow companies like Boost to use their network? I work remote, so I have to be on the Telstra network, but I and most other people on site use Boost rather than the expensive Telstra plans. I imagine this would be similar in many small towns.

Metro I would still choose Boost as the coverage is great and for Spotify and youtube Boost is fast enough. Why spend the money on infrastructure to have the "best" network to then allow someone else to use your superior network  and steal your market share gained from having the best network?


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## galumay (20 May 2018)

fiftyeight said:


> Why do carriers allow companies like Boost to use their network?




I think if you could dig deep enough you would find Boost is Telstra. The thing is Telstra know they will lose market share to telco's that are not price gouging to the same extent, so by having a sub-company like Boost, they get to keep market share and just accept a more normalised margin for those customers. Better to make a bit less than lose them altogether! There are some hints, even the billing is run by Telstra, my Boost recharges show up as 'Telstra' on my credit card. 

Dont forget the taxpayer largely subsidised the Telstra Mobile Network too, so it doesnt owe them much. Thats how they were able to get the penertration into the remote and regional market ahead of other telcos. 

Another example is Belong for NBN, cheap and nasty NBN ISP, but its a similar arrangement to boost, its Telstra really and this way they get to make margin where otherwise the customer would have gone to a non-telstra, cost effective alternative. There are only so many people you can fool into paying 30-40% more for the same service with inferior support!


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## fiftyeight (20 May 2018)

galumay said:


> I think if you could dig deep enough you would find Boost is Telstra.




I originally assumed that, but a quick look their wiki page suggested different. Could be wrong.

Founded by Peter Adderton and was originally on the Optus network made me think at least at first it was not owned by Telstra.

Definitely can see the business case for the 2nd tier to their business model (if Telstra do own Boost or a at least a large part of it) that is more reasonably priced but surely would restrict it somehow to preserve your regional and remote dominance?


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## galumay (20 May 2018)

fiftyeight said:


> but surely would restrict it somehow to preserve your regional and remote dominance?




I think they would run foul of the ACCC if they tried to discriminate against regional/remote just to preserve their price gouging. 

Also remember a significant % wont look elsewhere, I still here people say all the time "Telstra is the only provider that works here for mobile service", so they keep their ripoff margins with all those customers, the ones that go to Boost, they at least still get the wholesale revenue and it discourages Optus/TPG etc from investing in remote infrastructure, because unlike Telstra there is no taxpayer subsidy and they can see there is already availability of a cheap alternative via Boost.


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## Tisme (21 May 2018)

Telstra is now less than half its market capitalisation than three years ago. And that's with the high margin monopoly it was handed by the LNP for the NBN. Dividends are tipped to be about 10cps in 4 years.

Some would say the NBN deal killed off the lucrative wholesale side of the business, but that would have happened anyway, especially if Labor's plan had been embraced.


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## greggles (21 May 2018)

More network outages are not going to help with consumer confidence in the Telstra brand.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/telstra-customers-hit-major-mobile-network-outage-005408027.html


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## explod (21 May 2018)

Users will be departing in droves.

3 years back I disconnected my phone, 18 months ago connected to Kogan.  Now have phone (unlimited calls and texts) and ipad with 16 gig tethered to the phone, for $21 a month on a 12 month contract.  Only use about 9 gig so I'm laughing.

Feel for many innocents with such firms in their super.  But then who cares for others, just party


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## McCoy Pauley (4 June 2018)

Thodey maintained the public appearance of positioning Telstra as a company that valued customers and would provide them with better service than they previously received. Trujillo never understood government relations but he invested in building a network that would put Telstra ahead of its competitors. But the competitors have caught up and customer service is slipping. Penn has a lot to answer for in terms of the destruction of shareholder wealth.


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## sptrawler (6 June 2018)

IMO Telstra shot itself in the foot years ago, by not looking to diversify, it got too locked into Foxtel.
Which in turn made it locked in to Murdoch, who really only has his own interests at heart.
They should have off loaded Foxtel and bought into a T.V station, then had a vehicle ready and integrated for internet t.v, be it over the air or hard wired.
Just my opinion, but now all they are is a re seller, with higher customer costs due to Country coverage.
Where they are going to get growth from is anyones guess, Vodaphone and Optus don't require much margin, they have large overseas markets.


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## sptrawler (20 June 2018)

Interesting times for Telstra, looks as though they are finally throwing in the towel and becoming just another re seller of services.

https://thewest.com.au/technology/t...tractors-in-company-restructure-ng-b88871687z

Growth prospects seem to be diminishing, along with revenue and dividends.


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## greggles (20 June 2018)

Their four key pillars as outlined in their Market Release announced today don't sound too revolutionary or innovative:

Radically simplify our product offerings, eliminate customer pain points and create all digital experiences
Establish a standalone infrastructure business to drive performance and set up optionality post the nbn rollout
Greatly simplify our structure and ways of working to empower our people and serve our customers
Industry leading cost reduction programme and portfolio management
It's a tough sector to be a part of these days. TLS are just too big and too unwieldy to compete effectively with smaller, more efficient companies IMO. The big margins are gone from telecommunications. It's a different world in 2018.


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## HelloU (20 June 2018)

no expert here, a lot of value gone, but the structural separation was was due to be done next week (government enforced thing) has been delayed till 2020 or something so makes it confusing for me. It is not till then that the NBN restrictions and legacies will be gone (unless NBN funding/ownership falls in a hole in 2020 and what happens then?) If this infraco thing flies - on the back of telstra 5G (and 6G?) then future prospects are prolly good as telstra can stop being an NBN lapdog and compete....just unsure when that future is atm, and what it looks like - but it will certainly have to be more lithe.


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## galumay (20 June 2018)

Telstra lost the battle 25 years ago, the advent of ADSL was the beginning of the end for them, they had enjoyed a monopoly moat, they missed the point that legislative moats can disappear at a whim, they could have built a moat with customer service and support - instead the services they offered were generally not superior and the customer service for all of my adult life has been absolutley appalling. 

Any business that is so arrogant as to dismiss customers as irrelevant annoyances will eventually wither and die. Its too late now, the monopoly is gone, they have no moat with either brand or customer service and support so its just a slow uwind to the end IMO.


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## Toyota Lexcen (20 June 2018)

there still thousands to sack, literally thousands have to go

there is no support, the call centres just change you from assistant to assistant


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## So_Cynical (20 June 2018)

In stead of being part of the solution they chose to be part of the problem, dragged kicking and screaming into the future, going forward they are best positioned to maintain their leadership in mobile, 5G is a whole new ball game and they have the resources (deep pockets) and expertise to deliver.

This is one of the once in 20 year things, the whole telco sector has fallen like 55% or so, its a cyclical low. The S&P/ASX 200 Telecommunication Services Index - XTJ has fallen 55% top to bottom, back to near post GFC lows = its time to go deep and go long.
`


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## galumay (20 June 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> its time to go deep and go long.




Maybe, if so which company would you back to give you significant returns? I cannot see any chance of it being TLS. Its a crappy sector with tiny margins, I think there are much easier hunting grounds!


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## sptrawler (20 June 2018)

You are right So Cynical, but if Telstra spend big on 5G, will the ACCC step in yet again and re regulate access?

I wouldn't be suprised in 20 years, if Telstra isn't bought out by Optus(Singtel), or Vodaphone.


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## greggles (20 June 2018)

So what will be the drivers of growth for TLS in the future? They currently have a market cap of ~$33 billion. What is the telecommunications market worth and how would Telstra go about clawing back market share?


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## Gringotts Bank (20 June 2018)

iinet support staff are south African - you can understand them and they can understand you.  Maybe that will be the new thing for TLS - support staff who speak and understand English.  Sound crazy, I know.


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## notting (20 June 2018)

greggles said:


> So what will be the drivers of growth for TLS in the future?



The industry in general? It's pretty hot still.
I'm thinking this was a low.  Not expecting sky rockets but people will want the div for a little while longer you'd think.


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## sptrawler (21 June 2018)

notting said:


> The industry in general? It's pretty hot still.
> I'm thinking this was a low.  Not expecting sky rockets but people will want the div for a little while longer you'd think.



You could be right, Ive thought along that line, but it is risky. IMO
TLS still own the infrastructure and from my understanding, NBN lease it.
So maybe the wholesale section is worth something, that is unless the NBN are buying the backbone, rather than leasing it.
How you value it, is beyond me.


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## So_Cynical (21 June 2018)

5G is a whole new service to sell and new network to build, Telstra has the infrastructure, the towers and exchanges and fibre backbone and the customer base, 5G can also be a fixed service - with 5G all the telcos are starting from scratch, its a brave new world.


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## galumay (21 June 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> 5G is a whole new service to sell and new network to build




Not really, at the end of the day mobile wifi broadband has a limited market, the backhaul on Telstras mobile network cant handle a significant increase in data, 5G is more marketing spin than real world difference for consumers of mobile broadband. 4G is fast enough to comfortably stream 4K video, and almost no mobile users are downloading large files to their devices. 

If there was much of a takeup as a substitute for NBN for instance, the network would collapse and to build a separate network that could support that would be too expensive. Also wireless has other limitations that will mean its always inferior to fixed fibre.

I think the customer base is nearly gone, even in the very remote areas where Telstra is the only option as a mobile carrier their name is poison. People are fast moving over to providers like Boost who resell Telstra network. So telstra are moving from retail margins to only wholesale margins.

I really cant see 5G being a panacea for Telstra's problems. The biggest issue remains their disdain for customers, appalling customer support, silos within the support system, CSRs who are completely ignorant of the systems, processes and technology that Telstra uses, and a pricing structure in many parts that is eye watering price gouging.

Admittedly I work with the outcomes of their incompetence every day in my business, so I am probably more negative than most, but the horror stories are relentless. The real indicator for me that they have learnt nothing is the way they treat business customers - that was the last place where they really had a bit of customer stickiness due to switching costs.


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## nulla nulla (21 June 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> ......This is one of the once in 20 year things, the whole telco sector has fallen like 55% or so, its a cyclical low. The S&P/ASX 200 Telecommunication Services Index - XTJ has fallen 55% top to bottom, back to near post GFC lows = its time to go deep and go long.
> `
> View attachment 87897






notting said:


> The industry in general? It's pretty hot still.
> I'm thinking this was a low.  Not expecting sky rockets but people will want the div for a little while longer you'd think.




124 million share were soaked up yesterday around the $2.76 mark. If Telstra maintains their dividend at or near $0.22 this will represent a return of around 10% (including franking) for the buyers. Their investment in 5G and mobile network will position them well for competing with NBN when the no compete handcuffs come off. Problem is you are trying to predict the future in an ever changing technological environment. 2022 is  a long way down the track, a lot can change in 4 years.


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## HelloU (21 June 2018)

sptrawler said:


> You could be right, Ive thought along that line, but it is risky. IMO
> TLS still own the infrastructure and from my understanding, NBN lease it.
> So maybe the wholesale section is worth something, that is unless the NBN are buying the backbone, rather than leasing it.
> How you value it, is beyond me.



from the govt document......
"Telstra owns the copper-wire network that connects most of Australia’s homes. This is changing. As the National Broadband Network (NBN) is built across Australia, NBN Co Ltd will take over the lines in most areas. Telstra will still be able to use the lines, but it will be on the same basis as any other business that resells phone and internet services to people".

link https://www.communications.gov.au/w...ition-broadband/telstras-separation-framework


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## Country Lad (21 June 2018)

nulla nulla said:


> If Telstra maintains their dividend at or near $0.22 this will represent a return of around 10% (including franking) for the buyers. ....................................Problem is you are trying to predict the future in an ever changing technological environment. 2022 is  a long way down the track, a lot can change in 4 years.




My view is the announcement when this year's $0.22 dividend is declared will include a reduction of dividend in the next years.  The dividend comprises around an 80% of earnings plus the special from the NBN payments.  22 cents would be unsustainable as the earnings decrease (already a downgrade in the latest release).  The saving grace for TLS is the 5G opportunity for which TLS is far better placed than the competition, but that is not a given yet and a few years off.


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## sptrawler (21 June 2018)

HelloU said:


> from the govt document......
> "Telstra owns the copper-wire network that connects most of Australia’s homes. This is changing. As the National Broadband Network (NBN) is built across Australia, NBN Co Ltd will take over the lines in most areas. Telstra will still be able to use the lines, but it will be on the same basis as any other business that resells phone and internet services to people".
> 
> link https://www.communications.gov.au/w...ition-broadband/telstras-separation-framework




I'm not 100% sure on it, but I think Telstra still owns the exchanges, the interconnecting fibre cable, ducts and pits, and the overseas interconnecting fibre cable. The NBN, I think rents them off Telstra and it is this backbone, Telstra is talking about seperating, from retail.
The initial payments from the NBN are for access, then payments for poaching customers.
After the NBN is finished, I think they still pay Telstra a rent on the backbone of the system.
Well that's my understanding, someone will correct me, if I'm wrong.
As Country Lad says, I don't know how they will maintain the dividend at its current level, the last .22c was made up of a top up special payment.


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## Smurf1976 (21 June 2018)

galumay said:


> If there was much of a takeup as a substitute for NBN for instance, the network would collapse and to build a separate network that could support that would be too expensive. Also wireless has other limitations that will mean its always inferior to fixed fibre.



Agreed in a technical sense but I'm hearing of rather a lot of people ditching fixed comms altogether once the NBN comes through and going from ADSL to 4G.

If you aren't streaming much video then it's the rational thing to do given that NBN plans are all really only targeted at high volume users. If you're not streaming a lot of video then using your mobile phone's data is a sure fire winner on cost over being connected to the NBN and likely less hassle too (since that way you've only got to deal with Telstra etc for one thing not two).


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## galumay (21 June 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed in a technical sense but I'm hearing of rather a lot of people ditching fixed comms altogether once the NBN comes through and going from ADSL to 4G.




I dont see that in the real world, running a business that does the NBN installs, the takeup is nearly 100%, Netflix and Playstation are the 2 drivers I hear about over and over again. The teenage kids are all on Playstation and mum & dad are watching Netflix. Mobile broadband wont cut it for that, especially if more people start trying to do it. The backhaul is completely inadequate.

Even if you are right it isnt going to help Telstra much, nearly everywhere in Australia you get a better mobile deal with one of the other service providers. People have already voted with their feet with their mobiles.


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## Klogg (21 June 2018)

galumay said:


> The backhaul is completely inadequate.




This.

The way things are playing out, NBN will provide infrastructure for home internet, mobile will head more and more to TPG (lowest cost operator) and business internet between a number of fibre providers.

Telstra really need to cut costs and become competitive, because their copper monopoly is dying away quickly. The NBN won't be a flop forever


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## galumay (21 June 2018)

I have been thinking about it some more today and I think the single biggest problem for TLS remains its corporate cultural attitude to customers. As I said earlier, with ADSL the unwinding of the monopoly removed the only competitive advatage they had. There was a residual of customer stickiness, especially in business, but the abject failure for 30 years to make any attempt to change the corporate culture towards customers has wrecked the business and leaves it with absolutely no meaningful competitive advantage. They are now price takers on a slow race to the bottom

Oddly the only thing that has delayed the inevitible has been the consistently poor management across the sector. I still remember David Teoh's clarifying his attitude to customers, cant be posted here as its a family friendly site! Floptus, Vocus....


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## HelloU (21 June 2018)

what happens in 3 years time if Huawei was the only expression of interest in the NBN?


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## sptrawler (27 June 2018)

galumay said:


> I dont see that in the real world, running a business that does the NBN installs, the takeup is nearly 100%, Netflix and Playstation are the 2 drivers I hear about over and over again. The teenage kids are all on Playstation and mum & dad are watching Netflix. Mobile broadband wont cut it for that, especially if more people start trying to do it. The backhaul is completely inadequate.
> 
> Even if you are right it isnt going to help Telstra much, nearly everywhere in Australia you get a better mobile deal with one of the other service providers. People have already voted with their feet with their mobiles.




If 5G has the bandwidth capability they are saying it has, it may be the case that a lot of homes may decide to go full wireless.
From what I've read there is a suggestion that 5G transmitters could be installed in the node, then the house can be connected without the requirement for either copper or fibre.
If this proves correct, it would give a seamless connection from your mobile to domestic applications.
This then wouldn't require, all the different providers each person uses, and could really streamline packages and flatten data costs.
At the moment, I use Iprimus for home internet/phone, Woolies mobile and Telstra mobile pre paid broadband.
If the phone, the house and the mobile broadband was all 5G, the provider may say the cost of all the data, calls etc are in the bundle and a uniform price.
If this happens, then Telstra has a bit of a coverage, tech advantage, but it wouldn't encourage me to buy back in at this point.
5G if it comes up to expectations, is a real game changer, due to its bandwidth from memory 600Mhz to 6Ghz.
Which will equate to a huge data handling capability, and may lead to even higher data speed, which they are know talking about on 6G.
This is the problem with technology, it moves so bloody fast.

Here is a bit of technical blurb on 5G:
_The flexibility in Frequency for 5G goes from 3 to 300 GHz, and it can also switch between multiplexing and access technologies CDMA and BDMA. The standards it’s compatible with include IP broadband LAN/W AN/PAN & WWWW, and its ultra high speed, with gigabit data rates, high quality coverage and multi spectrum use for near real-time performance.

In the Internet of things (IoT) or Machine to Machine (M2M) space, 5G will be able to support 100 times more connected devices, achieve deep indoor coverage and have improved signaling efficiency, all at a 90% reduction in network energy usage, which also makes it cheaper to operate.
End of Quote.

*The problem for Telstra is, they are just another seller of the technology, with a better coverage, that doesn't help if all the extra coverage only gives you 10% more customers.*
_


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## HelloU (27 June 2018)

(i do not get where the telstra pre-paid thing fits spt, but anyway)

5G will give a real choice for most between.....5G or NBN. 4G does everything for me right now. No home phone for many years. To each to their own.......


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## galumay (27 June 2018)

sptrawler said:


> If 5G has the bandwidth capability they are saying it has, it may be the case that a lot of homes may decide to go full wireless.




Trust me, it doesnt and they wont. It will work fine for the odd household that just browses a bit and posts a few emails. It wont work for the sort of usage we are seeing across most households, long periods of HD video streaming, increasingly moving to 4K & in the future 5K. 

5G is not the panacea for TLS's woes.


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## sptrawler (27 June 2018)

HelloU said:


> (i do not get where the telstra pre-paid thing fits spt, but anyway)
> ..




The Telstra pre paid dongle, works great, when on the road.


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## sptrawler (27 June 2018)

galumay said:


> Trust me, it doesnt and they wont. It will work fine for the odd household that just browses a bit and posts a few emails. It wont work for the sort of usage we are seeing across most households, long periods of HD video streaming, increasingly moving to 4K & in the future 5K.




Well I'm no expert and I'm only going off what is on the internet, but it does sound like 5G is going to open up a lot of new boundaries, if it lives up to its hype.




galumay said:


> 5G is not the panacea for TLS's woes.




Yes, like I said, I won't be diving in on the back of 5G.

But I don't want to be completely negative, because as I've said I'm no expert, and don't want to make statements I've developed because of my own beliefs.
That isn't fair on the suffering shareholders, if I had some technical knowledge to give them hope and or desperation, I would.
But because I have no real in depth knowledge, of where the technology can lead, I just post what I have gleaned off the internet.
I'm not making a judgement on Telstra, just trying to add to the conversation.


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## galumay (27 June 2018)

I get the intent sptrawler, and I am probably more negative because its my field of specialty and what my business does. 

The suffereing shareholders need to work it out for themselves, what they do should never be influenced by what you, I or any other random on the internet says!


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## Smurf1976 (27 June 2018)

galumay said:


> I dont see that in the real world, running a business that does the NBN installs, the takeup is nearly 100%, Netflix and Playstation are the 2 drivers I hear about over and over again.




It probably reflects demographics etc. Nobody I know owns a Playstation..... 

$49 per month for all my comms on a mobile network (Telstra) that actually works. NBN and the others can't beat that for me so I don't use them.

NBN the problem is they only want higher volume users and that's it. 

Optus and Vodafone the problem is their networks are built to "cherry pick" profitable areas and in too many places just don't work where Telstra does.

That said I do agree that Telstra have a very major problem with customer service. Tried to sign up with them for internet back in 1996 and they never did get it sorted. Went with a local company instead who ended up being bought out twice over and becoming part of iiNet. That was fine until TPG took over iiNet and promptly turned it into a cheap, low quality operation.

There's no way I'll say Telstra is good but thus far I haven't found anyone who is actually better.


----------



## sptrawler (27 June 2018)

We have to decide which way we go with the internet, the node has arrived at a street near us. lol

We have Iprimus, the daughter, who lives with us has Telstra. 
To reduce overheads we will go with Telstra, at this point in time, I think they are probably better situated to provide a better outcome.


----------



## HelloU (27 June 2018)

galumay said:


> .... It will work fine for the odd household that just browses a bit and posts a few emails. ..........



that is me......no movies, no pr0n, no games. I do understand I am out of the normal demographic. I do not have demanding bandwith, latency or volume requirements. I do love having all my comms with me all the time though, no matter where I am, for little cost. Again, to each their own.


galumay said:


> I get the intent sptrawler, and I am probably more negative because its my field of specialty and what my business does.
> The suffereing shareholders need to work it out for themselves, what they do should never be influenced by what you, I or any other random on the internet says!




DYOR as usual, plenty of time to bail already, and new holders are betting on the future. I am keen to hear any views on both telstra and very much the broader comms things (cos they will change future directions and do so pretty fast imo)....so galumay your comments are very very welcome as you are closer to network frustrations and technicals than most. (and thanks to the the rest of you)


----------



## galumay (27 June 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I think they are probably better situated to provide a better outcome.




In what way sptrawler? There are much better service providers at lower price points, Telsta's NBN provisioning team is a special kind of incompetent and the support is non-existent. How does it reduce overheads for you? I may have missed something?

EDIT - reading the last dozen posts or so, I realise I have dragged this thread off topic! I will leave it there and let it get back on track to discussing the company TLS from an investment point of view rather than a discussion about the relative merits of ISPs and alternative technologies. Sorry.


----------



## sptrawler (27 June 2018)

galumay said:


> In what way sptrawler? There are much better service providers at lower price points, Telsta's NBN provisioning team is a special kind of incompetent and the support is non-existent. How does it reduce overheads for you? I may have missed something?




I have to defer to her somewhat, as she is hearing impaired and Telstra's apparently is better than the opposition.
To me personally it doesn't matter, as usually I'm just keeping the peace.lol


----------



## HelloU (27 June 2018)

galumay said:


> In what way sptrawler? There are much better service providers at lower price points, Telsta's NBN provisioning team is a special kind of incompetent and the support is non-existent. How does it reduce overheads for you? I may have missed something?
> 
> EDIT - reading the last dozen posts or so, I realise I have dragged this thread off topic! I will leave it there and let it get back on track to discussing the company TLS from an investment point of view rather than a discussion about the relative merits of ISPs and alternative technologies. Sorry.



Do not discount slightly OT comments here imo. Urs and others are valuable. This is all about TLS's future...particularly at the three year mark when NBN goes somewhere......it is all heading to that point for me...and how the companies position themselves before then.


----------



## So_Cynical (28 June 2018)

itnews said:
			
		

> NBN Co has revealed that the top user on its network is pulling down *23.6 terabytes of data a month* - To put that into perspective, the average user pulls down *190GB of data* and the median usage is even lower at *108GB a month*.




Try doing that with 4G 

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-cos-top-user-downloads-236tb-a-month-495646

Some interesting stats above...nothing to do with Telstra but just shows the incredible increase in data use, and people will want that freedom on the move and thats where Telstra and 5G come into it, people want to stay connected 24/7 where ever they are, there's no going back.


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## greggles (2 July 2018)

From $2.60 to $6.75 and back to $2.60 again in less than seven and a half years. Telstra has finally come full circle.

However, the telecommunications sector has experienced vast changes in that time and Telstra now occupies a very different place in that altered landscape.

Needless to say, I'm not very optimistic about it future prospects.


----------



## So_Cynical (2 July 2018)

greggles said:


> From $2.60 to $6.75 and back to $2.60 again in less than seven and a half years. Telstra has finally come full circle.
> Needless to say, I'm not very optimistic about it future prospects.



Buying TLS in early 2011 would of given a bottom to top (early 2015) return of about 180% with dividends...if the circle is to continue then now would be a fantastic time to join the circle.

I placed a buy order on Thursday, yet to be filled.


----------



## tinhat (3 July 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Buying TLS in early 2011 would of given a bottom to top (early 2015) return of about 180% with dividends...if the circle is to continue then now would be a fantastic time to join the circle.
> 
> I placed a buy order on Thursday, yet to be filled.




I know you like to pick a bottom, and it may well be in, but I wouldn't be holding out hope for the circle to continue. The NBN cash winfall was a once-off event. The industry is undergoing a massive structural change. The dividend is not sustainable. Telstra is playing out the classic tale (and often repeated in history) of what happens to the incumbent through the demonopolisation of an industry.


----------



## greggles (3 July 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Buying TLS in early 2011 would of given a bottom to top (early 2015) return of about 180% with dividends...if the circle is to continue then now would be a fantastic time to join the circle.
> 
> I placed a buy order on Thursday, yet to be filled.



I agree with tinhat. You may be right about TLS having found a bottom for now, but I don't see how it could experience the kind of revenue growth required for any sustainable share price increase. The industry is chock-a-block with competition that has slashed margins to try and increase market share. I just don't see how Telstra can effectively claw back its lost market share or find other avenues of revenue growth that would justify a much larger market cap.

There are plenty of better large cap growth stories out there IMO.


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2018)

It will be interesting to see what value is placed on the wholesale business/retail business, when it is separated.
The retail entity, may have some take over potential, from one of the O/S players.
The wholesale side will be interesting to value, IMO, how much will its earnings be regulated?

Still there may be more value in the two parts, than the whole business.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/telstra-new-infrastructure-business-2018-6


----------



## PZ99 (3 July 2018)

Bearish until they restructure: target $1.88


----------



## PZ99 (3 July 2018)

Bearish until they restructure: target price of $1.88 when it next goes EX dividend.


----------



## PZ99 (3 July 2018)

Very bearish until they restructure. Target price de-rated to around $1.88 when it next goes XD after which point the dividend would be far less than the current 22 cents.


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## peter2 (11 July 2018)

Unfortunately all our operators are busy and the current waiting time is longer than twenty minutes. . .


----------



## moXJO (13 July 2018)

I was getting a slower product for double the price with tls. 
It takes a lot (and I mean a lot) for me to change providers.
They sent me a final bill of about $2000. I told them that they "might want to check that" and after a bit of arguing they discovered that it was only supposed to be $50. 

Turns out I was being overcharged on top for about 3 years. I must have been with them for 16 years. 

I would say that the cheaper services are about par with telstra where I am. 
 Surprisingly, the quality dropped once nbn came along. They did get bad years ago (maybe 2006 and 2012) for me to notice. 

I'll pay extra for quality, but telstra wasn't delivering. Once I change I tend to stick with that services.

Everyone seems to be looking for cheaper services. Rego, Insurance electricity and food slug enough money out of people.
The younger generation are a lot more tech informed as well and that may act against tls.


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## Miner (13 July 2018)

moXJO said:


> I was getting a slower product for double the price with tls.
> It takes a lot (and I mean a lot) for me to change providers.
> They sent me a final bill of about $2000. I told them that they "might want to check that" and after a bit of arguing they discovered that it was only supposed to be $50.
> 
> ...



I am not a great fan of Telstra. However when I compare - AMAYSIM - no real person. Only emails, face book. Apologies for ever. 
TPG /Dodo/Optus - do not serve to the area with broadband even I live at Sorrento. Choice is Telstra.
Minesite - No one but Telstra works. Some folks carry Virgin etc for home and SIM card for minesite provided by Telstra. Too complicated for me. Of course if one buys Boost SIM Card comes very cheap even if Telstra provides the service to them as well.
Dispute Resolution - If you can speak the language - Telstra is the best. I have seen my friends who have IINET connection (now VOC) - when the line is out of operation - God helps.
End of the day saving $20 pm by a switch does not change a life style. At least I know the service is provided by Australian and Filipinos (nice husky girls speak with a good English command) when I use Telstra.
Returning to my share - sold out half of them and holding. Price is constant and keeping in mind Telstra is supported by a strong workforce even after shedding 2000 in next 6 months and financial instos back Telstra too. This could be the bottom of the price we have seen unless Chinese Telecom offers for a take over (who knows).


----------



## moXJO (14 July 2018)

Miner said:


> I am not a great fan of Telstra. However when I compare - AMAYSIM - no real person. Only emails, face book. Apologies for ever.
> TPG /Dodo/Optus - do not serve to the area with broadband even I live at Sorrento. Choice is Telstra.
> Minesite - No one but Telstra works. Some folks carry Virgin etc for home and SIM card for minesite provided by Telstra. Too complicated for me. Of course if one buys Boost SIM Card comes very cheap even if Telstra provides the service to them as well.
> Dispute Resolution - If you can speak the language - Telstra is the best. I have seen my friends who have IINET connection (now VOC) - when the line is out of operation - God helps.
> ...




Its a tough one. That juicy dividend is tempting. I haven't kept up to speed on tls, is the dividend due to be chopped? 
Surely it has to be, or its not sustainable.

Change of leadership and direction could bring a turnaround ?


----------



## notting (23 July 2018)

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/tra...lous-flight-to-safety-money-manager-says.html

Hmmm
TLS
Bitcoin
Gold


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## sptrawler (16 August 2018)

Things are certainly on the decline at Telstra, no plan, is finally coming home to roost.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...9-percent-fall-in-profit-20180816-p4zxqy.html


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## So_Cynical (17 August 2018)

And yet traded and closed above $3 per share today for the first time in 3 months, a rough broad flattish V bottom, and my buy order didn't get filled...can i pick bottom or what/



So_Cynical said:


> (july 2) I placed a buy order on Thursday, yet to be filled.


----------



## sptrawler (17 August 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> And yet traded and closed above $3 per share today for the first time in 3 months, a rough broad flattish V bottom, and my buy order didn't get filled...can i pick bottom or what/



Yes that was the weirdest stock movement in years, someone is pushing the price up, possible re gearing of institutions?
All the analyst's were saying worse to come, the dividend is made up with a 7c special from NBN, so that will go eventually. The NBN special payments will dry up sooner than expected, as the roll out has been sped up.
The only underlying glimmer of good news was 4k tv and 5g mobile, which the other players will no doubt roll out at a cheaper price, having said that they seem to be holding NBN subscribers at a higher price than the competitors.
I certainly won't be jumping in until the dividend settles and price follows.


----------



## HelloU (17 August 2018)

maybe it is positioning for nbn sale (by that I mean the giveaway)


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## systematic (17 August 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Yes that was the weirdest stock movement in years, someone is pushing the price up, possible re gearing of institutions?




I would've thought any price movement yesterday would have been largely in reaction to the annual report that came out before the market opened?


----------



## systematic (17 August 2018)

My take - more like  - on Telstra (financially speaking) is pretty well summed up as simply:

Profitable and stable, but devoid of any growth.

It has consistently rated as a 'cheap' stock for me, but the chart has been undesirable, making it a very middle-of-the-road idea; not particularly good and not particularly bad.


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## notting (17 August 2018)

It's a bond


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## sptrawler (17 August 2018)

systematic said:


> My take - more like  - on Telstra (financially speaking) is pretty well summed up as simply:
> 
> Profitable and stable, but devoid of any growth.
> 
> It has consistently rated as a 'cheap' stock for me, but the chart has been undesirable, making it a very middle-of-the-road idea; not particularly good and not particularly bad.




I guess that depends on what the person paid for them.


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## So_Cynical (17 August 2018)

Talking to a guy who plays the markets (trend follower) at work yesterday and hes like TPG, its TPG that you want, they will do this and do that, and im like so what will TPG look like in 10 or 15 years time, what are they tiring to be? well they would want to look like Telstra, TPG's measure of success will be how many customers they can take away from Telstra by providing pretty much what Telstra already provides.

I think its a pretty silly argument, Telstra is king and will always be King, Telstra pays the dividend that TPG cannot because they have the cash and its the cash that will keep them way out in front with 5G, TPG has many hurdles to jump that Telstra simply dose not.


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## systematic (17 August 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I guess that depends on what the person paid for them.




I just meant it as how I have seen the stock in recent times (and currently)


----------



## fiftyeight (17 August 2018)

If 5G does develop strong commercial demand perhaps being cashed up and ready to pull the trigger quickly will be an advantage. Commercial will require the "quality" network with best coverage and will pay a premium for the quality. If TLS can be the first to own such a network and keep the rate of expansion quick enough perhaps there will a big enough first mover advantage to justify a quick roll out


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## sptrawler (17 August 2018)

fiftyeight said:


> If 5G does develop strong commercial demand perhaps being cashed up and ready to pull the trigger quickly will be an advantage. Commercial will require the "quality" network with best coverage and will pay a premium for the quality. If TLS can be the first to own such a network and keep the rate of expansion quick enough perhaps there will a big enough first mover advantage to justify a quick roll out




I agree, if 5G does what they are purporting it can do, it will take wireless to a whole new level.
But it really is in its infancy, so it will take time before technology catches up with the 5G capability.
Telstra will have a huge advantage with its tower network coverage, but will Telstra's earnings maintain until 5G starts paying a dividend?
My guess is the dividend will drop, the price will drop, then there will be a long slow growth.
However if I got a $ for everytime I was wrong, I would be rich.


----------



## brisrocket (18 September 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Talking to a guy who plays the markets (trend follower) at work yesterday and hes like TPG, its TPG that you want, they will do this and do that, and im like so what will TPG look like in 10 or 15 years time, what are they tiring to be? well they would want to look like Telstra, TPG's measure of success will be how many customers they can take away from Telstra by providing pretty much what Telstra already provides.
> 
> I think its a pretty silly argument, Telstra is king and will always be King, Telstra pays the dividend that TPG cannot because they have the cash and its the cash that will keep them way out in front with 5G, TPG has many hurdles to jump that Telstra simply dose not.



Is TPG set to float? I've been under a rock with Telco's sorry. Hoping to catchup here...


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## Miner (19 September 2018)

brisrocket said:


> Is TPG set to float? I've been under a rock with Telco's sorry. Hoping to catchup here...



Motley float (though I have little faith on them) has declared TPM as a SELL. They have been nagging on a buy but after the result published, they raised a white flag. To me, it is a really bad signal.
DYOR. Do not hold TPM but do hold TLS bought at a very low price when others were selling.
If I am not wrong one thing I believe why TLS can not fail like ABC child care or Lehman brothers -
Financial institutions hold TLS to a great extent and so probably Federal Government through their super funds etc.
So forget financial cals, for the sake of vote and colossal damages those big guns will keep the sheep saved from sinking.


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2018)

Telstra way out in front having about 1.9 million active NBN connections, TPG second with 800K, Optus 500K and Vocus 300K, so Telstra with easily more than the other big 3 combined.

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/telstra-towers-over-rivals-in-war-for-nbn-power-512746


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## Miner (21 September 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> Telstra way out in front having about 1.9 million active NBN connections, TPG second with 800K, Optus 500K and Vocus 300K, so Telstra with easily more than the other big 3 combined.
> 
> https://www.itnews.com.au/news/telstra-towers-over-rivals-in-war-for-nbn-power-512746



Being a Telstra holder and customer I am happy but as a holder of SOL, I know the share price tumble on TPM will heavily impact SOL performance.  The annual report has already showed some of it for SOL and many more to come. Opportunity to buy moment for SOL for sure. 
On VOC, the Chairman Bob Mansfield of ex Optus and MacDonald fame bought $200,000 worth of shares.


----------



## Darc Knight (16 October 2018)

"Telstra chairman John Mullen has warned shareholders that the telco's net profit is expected to be cut in half after the National Broadband Network is fully rolled out."

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/progra...-to-be-halved-after-full-nbn-rollout/10382502


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> "Telstra chairman John Mullen has warned shareholders that the telco's net profit is expected to be cut in half after the National Broadband Network is fully rolled out."
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/radio/progra...-to-be-halved-after-full-nbn-rollout/10382502



That is a great pick up Darc Knight, jeez if that hits mainstream news the poo will hit the fan.

Luckily they are pre occupied with the Wentworth by election.

If you read back through the thread, the underlying issue always brought to the fore, was where is revenue and growth going to come from.
Why Telstra executives get paid at all is beyond me, all they have done is steer dead ahead into the abyss.
No imagination, no lateral thinking, no hope.


----------



## PZ99 (16 October 2018)

One would hope TLS gets pro-active in the area of aerodynamic RF transmissions. All 5G's of it.


----------



## Redbeard (17 October 2018)

IMO the only long term hope will be if TLS gets 5g up and exceeds expectations or it buys some or all of NBN off the govt to protect its income.


----------



## galumay (17 October 2018)

5G is not going to save TLS. However bad the NBN rollout has been, imagine the disaster that would ensure if TLS bought it from the Government.


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## Klogg (17 October 2018)

galumay said:


> 5G is not going to save TLS. However bad the NBN rollout has been, imagine the disaster that would ensure if TLS bought it from the Government.




I'm working at Telstra at the moment, on the transformation component of T22. 

To be completely honest, I think they need a miracle to save them. The workforce is heavily unionized, and they're changing software delivery methodology at the same time as imposing unrealistic delivery time-frames given the current state of play.
I could be wrong, but that's how I see things right now.


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## jbocker (17 October 2018)

Looks like the workers wont be the only ones sweating their jobs this year.
T22 might be too late. "T19" will need to show verrry good progress.

From their results announcement today....

_4:  Remuneration Report  The following non-binding resolution was decided on a Poll and the resolution did not pass. 
“That the Remuneration Report for the year ended 30 June 2018 be adopted”. For* 38.02% Against 61.98% 
As more than 25% of the votes were cast against this resolution, this constitutes a first strike for the purposes of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)._


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## sptrawler (17 October 2018)

Redbeard said:


> IMO the only long term hope will be if TLS gets 5g up and exceeds expectations or it buys some or all of NBN off the govt to protect its income.



Non of the telco's will be allowed to own the NBN, the Government hasn't spent all our money to break Telstra up, just to allow it to become vertically intergrated again.


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## sptrawler (17 October 2018)

Well if this report is true, what a scam, getting the taxpayer to pay for the replacement of the copper network. So that the taxpayer, can pay more for the service, they owned in the first place.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...re-huge-hit-to-taxpayers-20181017-p50a5t.html


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## Redbeard (25 October 2018)

That sounds more like it.  And thats what I was meaning by my previous comment.  Telstra is not going to roll over and get eaten away. They have to do something to keep in the game.  It was obvious when they announced the NBN that long term Telstra would try to buy it.
In a similar vein Transurban will keep doing upgrades to Citilink so it can extend and extend the contract. They were never going to "hand over" the road after the end of the first contract.


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## sptrawler (21 November 2018)

I doubt Telstra will be allowed to buy the NBN, however I will be buying some if the downtrend takes them to the $2.80 region, on the back of the 5G roll out.


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## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

IMO this is the space Telstra should have been in years ago, they should have bought Ten and offloaded Foxtel, or integrated it. Just my opinion

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...stan-with-surprise-price-20181203-p50jto.html


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## Ann (11 January 2019)

....and a chart, maybe TLS will do a double bottom and head into a consolidating sideways channel for a bit. Could be a good buying op coming up for those who don't totally hate TLS that is!


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## tinhat (11 January 2019)

Ann said:


> ....and a chart, maybe TLS will do a double bottom and head into a consolidating sideways channel for a bit. Could be a good buying op coming up for those who don't totally hate TLS that is!
> 
> View attachment 91288




So it turns out that David Murray was right after all. But, by golly, I and many others here made a lot of money out of TLS. I didn't get out as early as I should have and as early as wiser minds on these fora suggested, but it was a great ride! Special thanks to Tony Abbott!


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## sptrawler (12 January 2019)

I'm no Telstra fan but, if they split and if the wholesale section picks up the NBN and if the retail section has the 5g, and if the ACCC let's them get away with it.
What a great buy. Lol


----------



## Ann (12 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I'm no Telstra fan but, if they split and if the wholesale section picks up the NBN and if the retail section has the 5g, and if the ACCC let's them get away with it.
> What a great buy. Lol



It has been on my watchlist for a very long time sptrawler. Interesting to watch.


----------



## sptrawler (12 January 2019)

Ann said:


> It has been on my watchlist for a very long time sptrawler. Interesting to watch.



Yes I had them, sold pre the plunge, but still think they at some time, will be a good stable income stock.
I just have to work out what that income will be. Lol


----------



## peter2 (11 February 2019)

OMG Dare I post this?  With the withdrawal of competitors to establish a rival 5G network, TLS price has jumped. The chart is showing a bullish basing pattern. I've put the level at 3.30.


----------



## Miner (11 February 2019)

peter2 said:


> OMG Dare I post this?  With the withdrawal of competitors to establish a rival 5G network, TLS price has jumped. The chart is showing a bullish basing pattern. I've put the level at 3.30.
> 
> View attachment 92045



Good posting Peter2.
I am optimistic on Thursday result news.
Technically, with the banks and few others have been shy to attract bulls, with iron ore miners (sadly taking leverage of Vale's tailing dam disaster) and TLS are attractive options for the investors.
Cheers


----------



## Boggo (11 February 2019)

TLS popped up in my weekly scan on the weekend, first time since Jan 2015.

(click to expand)


----------



## Miner (11 February 2019)

Boggo said:


> TLS popped up in my weekly scan on the weekend, first time since Jan 2015.
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 92056



Hi  @Boggo 
Another nice chart published with optimism on TLS. Feeling good as a holder .
Not being a chartist, can not pretend to be knowing the difference on the chart you have presented and the one I saw from Commsec Data. Are we seeing different graphs here. Not an issue, so long TLS prices rise higher and I get comfortable to balance my rest


----------



## Boggo (11 February 2019)

Miner said:


> Hi  @Boggo
> Another nice chart published with optimism on TLS. Feeling good as a holder .
> Not being a chartist, can not pretend to be knowing the difference on the chart you have presented and the one I saw from Commsec Data. Are we seeing different graphs here. Not an issue, so long TLS prices rise higher and I get comfortable to balance my rest




Select a weekly chart Miner, should look the same as peter2's and mine ?


----------



## kahuna1 (14 February 2019)

Wow,

well, a long affair with this stock I have had. Hate it, love it, hate it and on and on it goes.
T1 back in the dark ages like most government floats, a steal, then T3 was rubbish.

Back in 2000 in a stupid tech boom ... up over $9- I think it stunk, and a long long wait till future fund stupidly dumped its holding at $2.60 ish and then, THEN NBN was a great deal with the 30 plus cents for along time fully franked at over 10% yield and then 13% with credits, one could NOT ignore it.

I sold out, early, as I tend to do and amazed it went over 20% higher up over $6- whilst the NBN and underlying ground was evaporating.

Now we are here, 2019. NBN is what it is, an expensive joke. Seriously a joke and the write-down the government is going to eat will make anyone cry.

Technology advances and with mobile broadband in the middle of nowhere, by Telstra at 50 MBS v NBN not a hell of a lot faster and sucky coverage, TLS eventually will prevail. NOT for a while however !!

I suspect at some stage NBN is taken over by TLS and the folly of a goverment run bureaucracy, called the NBN with incompetence in the extreme will be dumped as a bad joke.

Even if this does NOT occur, the 5G v the 4G 50 MPS .... will soon be lightening fast 200 MBS plus and NBN a whiote elephant in many respects.

For NOW, TLS in my opinion NOT a BUY. The rally when TPG or whomever it was that was going to build a mobile network pulled out *was IDIOTIC*. So so so stupid the market at times always amazes me. The stock impact, on TLS earnings was MINIMAL and the stock rallies over 10%. For NOW, an opinion is that TLS struggles with dividend income and the price here even though its off 2% at 3.14 is STILL 10% too high.

TELCO's are risky and at this price, at a 16 cent dividend IT SUCKS WIND. The rally from 2.80 to 3.20 was always stupid when this result was always on the cards and expected. UNTIL the share price represents a dividend close to 6% or $2.80, or LOWER I am not a fan and will just watch and wait.


Good Luck
Mark K


----------



## sptrawler (14 February 2019)

Pretty well sums up my thoughts kahuna, 5G will decimate NBN, then NBN will just become pay T.V which Telstra will pick up for a song.
White elephants all around, the sooner the whole sad NBN story, gets put into the history books the better.
A waste of taxpayers money, that is now causing hand wringing Governments, to scrounge around in the $hit pit to pay it off. Absolute disgrace, the whole sham.
The Government would be better off buying back Telstra, than keep throwing taxpayer money at the telco's to upgrade their infrastructure. IMO


----------



## kahuna1 (14 February 2019)

Hahah ... buy it back ? Hell no, it would be worthless within a few years.

One has to love technology and 5G and a few years, NBN is, what was cutting edge like my IMB AT with 624k ram !! Or my first ZX sinclair 81 PC. 

I do think there is value, somewhere, but not for some time.

Cheers


----------



## sptrawler (14 February 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> One has to love technology and 5G and a few years, NBN is, what was cutting edge like my IMB AT with 624k ram !! Or my first ZX sinclair 81 PC.
> 
> Cheers



The taxpayer will be funding the upgrade of the NBN, to 5G, so the telco's can charge us more again.Lol
Also 5G will be required for autonomous cars, and we know who will be paying for it, jeez we are a bunch of muppets.
NBN the biggest waste of taxpayer money, in history. lol

The only value Telstra's going to have, is the fibre backbone, in 10 years time.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 February 2019)

Is 5g going to be adequate at home? 

Will everybody at home use there own mobile device or a mobile modem hub


----------



## luutzu (14 February 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The taxpayer will be funding the upgrade of the NBN, to 5G, so the telco's can charge us more again.Lol
> Also 5G will be required for autonomous cars, and we know who will be paying for it, jeez we are a bunch of muppets.
> NBN the biggest waste of taxpayer money, in history. lol
> 
> ...




It's only a waste of money 'cause our representatives thought to foot the bill in getting it built, but then offload it once the money starts to roll in.

Certain infrastructure got to be public owned. Things like the internet, telecom, roads, airport... why in the hell would you privatise it if it's not to hand cash out to your friends.

Just drove the folks to the airport the other day. Got back 3 minutes past the parking timeframe and they charge me $19.60.

During peak hours, the traffic to and from Sydney International backs up a mile or two.


----------



## sptrawler (14 February 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Is 5g going to be adequate at home?
> 
> Will everybody at home use there own mobile device or a mobile modem hub




5G has huge bandwidth, the thing is going to be, who will use a PC when the mobile device will out perform it?
Blue tooth keyboard and full size TV screen or a monitor, take your phone with you as your phone, camera, internet and pc, no point in having a massive box in the corner doing nothing.
With regard the mobile modem hub or individual phone plans, will depend on the household I guess.
I think, the only thing coming down the line to the house, will be pay t.v.


----------



## sasch (15 February 2019)

sptrawler said:


> 5G has huge bandwidth, the thing is going to be, who will use a PC when the mobile device will out perform it?
> Blue tooth keyboard and full size TV screen or a monitor, take your phone with you as your phone, camera, internet and pc, no point in having a massive box in the corner doing nothing.
> With regard the mobile modem hub or individual phone plans, will depend on the household I guess.
> I think, the only thing coming down the line to the house, will be pay t.v.




Sptrawler, 

I already find my mobile 4G connection faster than my Telstra cable connection most of the time and more reliable (I don't remember ever being not able to access my phone internet). I find it kind of ironic that I used to get 100 Mbps 8 years ago on my connection, and the top NBN speed now being marketed is the 100 plan, lol. 

My original connection has deteriorated over the years, and Netflix was the final nail in the coffin, so to speak.

There is no incentive to switch over to NBN, and that is a worry. The minimum speed for a new network should be 1000 Mbps. I will take the convenience of 5G over cable any day. There has to be a payoff for using a wired service, such as much faster speed. But, this does not look like it is happening anytime soon.

This is vital future infrastructure for Australia, yet it seems we want to focus on digging stuff out of the ground and putting up houses/apartments.


----------



## sptrawler (15 February 2019)

sasch said:


> Sptrawler,
> 
> I already find my mobile 4G connection faster than my Telstra cable connection most of the time and more reliable (I don't remember ever being not able to access my phone internet). I find it kind of ironic that I used to get 100 Mbps 8 years ago on my connection, and the top NBN speed now being marketed is the 100 plan, lol.
> .




Hi sasch, the problem with 4G is the bandwidth is too narrow, therefore the more that get on it the more it bogs down.
That is where 5G is a massive step forward, the bandwidth is huge, so congestion isn't an issue. The data handling capability, will apparently be able to handle autonomous car and consumer data concurrently, which will mean the NBN will be left for fixed appliance feed.
Well that's my understanding.


----------



## sptrawler (15 February 2019)

Just read up on the Telstra dividend, it is 5c with a 3c special dividend, doesn't bode well for the underlying share price.

https://exchange.telstra.com.au/2019-half-year-financial-results/


----------



## kahuna1 (15 February 2019)

Howdy,

Out come the analysts reports, valuation is #2.80-2.90 from the ones I got.  Share price has stopped for now going down !! Amazing what they are thinking when the head of TLS came out and in the AFR is saying they make NOTHING from reselling NBN plans. Not any motivation to sell them and even worse, the whole bunch is in the same place, selling NBN for no or little margins. As such, of course they are asking for a price rise so they can eat !! 

On one hand if it occurs, the price rise, some profits, on the other not good for competition overall as it will make those with their own networks worth MORE. So I suppose I understand why TLS has stopped dropping for now, but its a bloody long way from any rise and a political nightmare already the whole NBN. Basically don't expect the price to rise any time soon as its a political football and we have an election coming. 

Basically heads they loose tails they loose for the NBN and TLS the stupid hope of some price rise that NEVER EVER is going to  occur until late 2019 if ever, is not a good risk.

Cheers
Mark K


----------



## sptrawler (15 February 2019)

kahuna1 said:


> Basically heads they loose tails they loose for the NBN and TLS the stupid hope of some price rise that NEVER EVER is going to  occur until late 2019 if ever, is not a good risk.



The light at the end of the tunnel IMO is, eventually autonomous vehicles will arrive. They will use a lot of data, which will have to be delivered wirelessly, someone will have to pay for that data.
But that is a long, long, long way off and a lot of capital has to be spent, on data transmission infrastructure.
The whole telco industry, is a money pit and it is difficult to keep up with technology, while keeping prices down.
I have no idea, what is holding Telstra's price up.


----------



## peter2 (11 March 2019)

The TLS price chart is starting to look a little bullish. Price is close to a clear resistance level (3.30) and it's not far away from making a new yearly high.


----------



## $20shoes (11 March 2019)

Yeah, it came up on a scan for me this weekend, Peter. I think I'll be in with a nibble if it continues on its merry way.


----------



## Boggo (14 March 2019)

peter2 said:


> The TLS price chart is starting to look a little bullish. Price is close to a clear resistance level (3.30) and it's not far away from making a new yearly high.






$20shoes said:


> Yeah, it came up on a scan for me this weekend, Peter. I think I'll be in with a nibble if it continues on its merry way.




It's only Wednesday data on a weekly chart but it's still saying "look at me" on my scan.

(click to expand)


----------



## Ann (20 March 2019)

TLS listed on Monday November 17th 1997 the initial price was $3.30 today it closed at $3.26.


----------



## sptrawler (20 March 2019)

The funny thing was the opposition of the day, said T1 was sold too cheap, to the Governments mates and rich individuals. 
So the second installment went for $7.40, that proved to be a laugh, so T3 was floated back at T1 prices.
Just shows what can be done, when a lot of false news, is thrown around.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 March 2019)

Ann said:


> TLS listed on Monday November 17th 1997 the initial price was $3.30 today it closed at $3.26



I ponder whether we could now be seeing a double bottom on the long term chart?

Bottoms at a similar level in 2010 and 2018 so looks possible.


----------



## Ann (21 March 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I ponder whether we could now be seeing a double bottom on the long term chart?
> 
> Bottoms at a similar level in 2010 and 2018 so looks possible.




I have been watching for this Smurf however there is an overhead resistance line at $3.30 which it needs to overcome first. Then we have a falling long term overhead resistance which is around the $3.70ish level depending on how the price travels. In other words technically there is a lot of headwind for TLS.


----------



## Ann (17 April 2019)

The $3.30 resistance line seems to have given TLS a bit of trouble, it still seems to be a (weakening) resistance line. It needs to push above this to get it out of a sideways range coming from March 2018.


----------



## Boggo (17 April 2019)

Constantly saying "look at moi" on my weekly system (weekly data on last bar not complete yet).

(click to expand x 2)


----------



## peter2 (17 April 2019)

Every time I mention that the TLS chart looks bullish to a friend who was a Telstra employee for a long time, he tells me to take a BEX and lie down. BEX powder was banned in 1977 so that tells you we're both getting on. He can't see anything positive in Telstra's future other than 5G, but I like the chart.


----------



## Boggo (17 April 2019)

peter2 said:


> Every time I mention that the TLS chart looks bullish to a friend who was a Telstra employee for a long time, he tells me to take a BEX and lie down. BEX powder was banned in 1977 so that tells you we're both getting on. He can't see anything positive in Telstra's future other than 5G, but I like the chart.




Yes, its a stock that I gotten sick of hearing about, great yield etc etc over the years.
I have a list of what I think are better stocks for my SMSF but I couldn't resist a few TLS instalment warrants in my trading account


----------



## Ann (22 April 2019)

peter2 said:


> Every time I mention that the TLS chart looks bullish to a friend who was a Telstra employee for a long time, he tells me to take a BEX and lie down. BEX powder was banned in 1977 so that tells you we're both getting on. He can't see anything positive in Telstra's future other than 5G, but I like the chart.




I bet he isn't a chartist Peter!



Ann said:


> The $3.30 resistance line seems to have given TLS a bit of trouble, it still seems to be a (weakening) resistance line. It needs to push above this to get it out of a sideways range coming from March 2018.




....and I reckon it may have done it, look at the energy as it crosses that $3.30 line!


----------



## kahuna1 (22 April 2019)

My view,

as to value of TLS well below $3- even with TPG pulling out of its proposed mobile network, even with NBN sucking as to any profit for TLS, the market, in its wisdom, loves it !! 

Glad to be wrong, but nothing has changed to alter its outlook and if anything, Labor and its record with NBN will not make the next few years easy o  Telcos let alone TLS.

But for now, sit ... wait and be disciplined.


----------



## tinhat (23 April 2019)

I think at this stage the value of TLS depends on what sort of yield you are happy with. This is a mature stage cash cow business.


----------



## MarketMatters (24 April 2019)

Interesting times for Telstra investors ahead and if this chart is anything to go buy it will be an interesting ride. Over the last 3-months we have seen divergence in high yield stocks - Australian regional Bank of Queensland (BOQ) fall -9.5% & Bendigo Bank (BEN) -7.5% while Telstra (TLS) has rallied +17.6% plus also paying a dividend in February.







Add to this Macquarie Group's announcement, to further muddy the waters, who are preparing to launch a mobile phone business - a surprising move that will increase competition in an already tough market!

Will the elasticity in price give way to a change of trend?


----------



## Ann (28 May 2019)

There is a long term overhead falling resistance line coming up for TLS from August 2015, it will be interesting to see if it pulls back from the resistance line and retests horizontal support at around $3.27 or manages to break above this red line of resistance. Interesting to watch...


----------



## sptrawler (28 May 2019)

I think there is a lot of buying on the back of 5G expectations, as far as I know technology hasn't caught up with capability yet, so to a degree a lot of the price rise is speculative IMO. 
As you say Ann it will be interesting to watch, especially when the cash burn figures come in, for the 5G roll out.


----------



## Boggo (30 May 2019)

One view of TLS based on weekly chart.
Target of $4 area ????

(click to expand)


----------



## Ann (3 June 2019)

TLS has been traveling very well recently but there is a big test coming up for it shortly, that is the falling overhead resistance coming from 2015.
I have included the 'prat meter' that is the Indicator called the Positive Volume Index. It is supposed to measure the buying sentiment of the unsophisticated investors. It looks like your average punter has little to no interest at all in TLS. 
However the Negative Volume Indicator which is supposed to show what the 'smart' money is doing is going gangbusters as is the Twiggs daily and weekly Money Flow. (Not shown)


----------



## rnr (3 June 2019)

It's probably worth mentioning that TLS has some headwinds to contend with as there are 6 unfilled gaps between the current high of $3.65 and $5.50.


----------



## sptrawler (11 July 2019)

Now that both the Government and the ACCC, has poured water on any chance Telstra or its entities have of buying the NBN, it will be interesting to see how the share price reacts.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...ate-competition-watchdog-20190710-p525to.html

In reality it would be a slap in the taxpayers face, Telstra would be back to a monopoly, with a taxpayer funded network upgrade.


----------



## Boggo (16 July 2019)

Follow up from post #2325 above.
Got to within a cent of the typical W.3 area. Sold my instalment warrants yesterday.

(click to expand)


----------



## rnr (4 August 2019)

TLS has already conquered one overhead gap of $0.05 but will they stumble filling the next gap of $0.25. Get the next one out of the road and there is only 4 more unfilled gaps to go! No pressure at all.


----------



## Boggo (4 August 2019)

I'm back into instalment warrants again on the breakout.

(Weekly chart, click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2019)

There seems to be a lot of wishing and hoping, in Telstra's current price, 8c dividend with 3c of it being a nbn payment, doesn't bode well for the future.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-impact-from-nbn-in-2020-20190815-p52h8k.html
From the article:
Earnings (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) fell 21 per cent to $8 billion.
Excluding the NBN roll out, earnings declined about 4 per cent.

Telstra grew net retail postpaid mobile customers by 378,000, with 181,000 at Belong, and grew fixed-line retail bundle and data services by 107,000.

The telco is guiding total income for the 2020 financial year to be $25.7 billion to $27.7 billion and underlying earnings to be $7.3 billion to $7.8 billion.

Telstra will pay a fully franked 8¢ final dividend on 26 September. This includes an ordinary final dividend of 5c and a special dividend of 3¢. That brought full year dividends to 16¢, down from to 22¢ a year earlier.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190815/pdf/447hg10wkhltxp.pdf


----------



## Boggo (15 August 2019)

The CEO is happy...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...cOrqsfahiy7yR4kq0ys6lPXwEc#Echobox=1565837122


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2019)

Boggo said:


> The CEO is happy...



Yes I think it is about time, for me to jump ship, again.


----------



## Boggo (15 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Yes I think it is about time, for me to jump ship, again.




I'm out, gave back part of the profit from last trade.


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I doubt Telstra will be allowed to buy the NBN, however I will be buying some if the downtrend takes them to the $2.80 region, on the back of the 5G roll out.



At last, a lucky guess back in November.


----------



## fiftyeight (15 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Yes I think it is about time, for me to jump ship, again.




Why now, there was nothing that was surprising was there?


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> Why now, there was nothing that was surprising was there?



Shaky stock market, good profit, dubious dividend = better value elsewhere.
Only my opinion, everyone is in a different position.


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

I haven't owned TLS for a while now. As a customer of the NBN fraudband (FTTN) who has experienced faster speeds but more frequent drop-out than ADSL2, I cannot believe that those younger than me will tolerate the fraud that NBN is for much longer.

I also have reservations that G5 will be tolerated in many areas, including where I live. It's hard to know because, contemporaneously, people appear more willing to accept lower perceived quality of life outcomes.


----------



## sptrawler (16 August 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> Why now, there was nothing that was surprising was there?



A quick question, with the financial results that Telstra produced, what about them would encourage you to hold or indeed buy?
From my perspective, I would rather wait and see how much traction 5G gets and what new technologies come from it, before committing. An increase in mobile phone connections and a decrease in income, isn't a great signal.
Also a 5c dividend on a 60% income pay out ratio, does bode well, when they have conceded the income will drop next year. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't fathom where the blue sky value is, can someone help?
Just my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler (16 August 2019)

While we are on the subject of Telstra, they have sold part ownership of their exchanges, should be a sugar hit.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...perty-fund-to-raise-cash-20190816-p52hqv.html


----------



## fiftyeight (16 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> A quick question, with the financial results that Telstra produced, what about them would encourage you to hold or indeed buy?
> From my perspective, I would rather wait and see how much traction 5G gets and what new technologies come from it, before committing. An increase in mobile phone connections and a decrease in income, isn't a great signal.
> Also a 5c dividend on a 60% income pay out ratio, does bode well, when they have conceded the income will drop next year. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't fathom where the blue sky value is, can someone help?
> Just my opinion.




Not much to be honest, there was nothing surprising or new in there. (From the small pieces I have read, I dont follow TLS closely...yet) Which why I was curious as to what was in there has made you want to jump ship again? 



sptrawler said:


> Yes I think it is about time, for me to jump ship, again.




One thing I have started to ponder, 'IF' 5G is a 'national strategic asset ' maybe Telstra will get some kind overly generous conditions/funding/deal/protection to roll out it out


----------



## So_Cynical (16 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't fathom where the blue sky value is, can someone help?.




Not bright blue sky, very little bright blue sky for almost anything at the moment, after all's done TLS will be a very simple big business with
a simple offering dominating a must have market, everyone has a mobile and the infrastructure required to operate the network is a moat of sorts.


----------



## galumay (16 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't fathom where the blue sky value is, can someone help?




Does anyone think there is? Its a bad business getting worse, 5G is mostly marketing, it offers no real world advantage for most users over 4G. The infrastructure cant handle much increase in usage if there was a larger than expected takeup of 5G anyway. 

Its a crappy sector and Telstra are the worst of the operators in it. I see their blind incompetence every day in my company, their support and service is actually getting worse - something I would not have thought possible. I would deal with at least one major stuff up with NBN provisioning by them every week, and it usually results in the loss of a long term business customer.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 August 2019)

galumay said:


> I would deal with at least one major stuff up with NBN provisioning by them every week




I thought the NBN contractors do all the provisioning - is Telstra an NBN contractor?


----------



## sptrawler (17 August 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Not bright blue sky, very little bright blue sky for almost anything at the moment, after all's done TLS will be a very simple big business with
> a simple offering dominating a must have market, everyone has a mobile and the infrastructure required to operate the network is a moat of sorts.



Which goes back to the underlying NPAT and the sustainable dividend payout ratio, which I mentioned.


----------



## sptrawler (17 August 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> Not much to be honest, there was nothing surprising or new in there. (From the small pieces I have read, I dont follow TLS closely...yet) Which why I was curious as to what was in there has made you want to jump ship again?
> One thing I have started to ponder, 'IF' 5G is a 'national strategic asset ' maybe Telstra will get some kind overly generous conditions/funding/deal/protection to roll out it out



IF 5G proves to be the massive leap forward, as the gurus say, Telstra will be in the box seat.
However even if that is so, I feel there will be many years of dwindling income and major expenditure, before it comes to fruition.
Just my opion.


----------



## Knobby22 (17 August 2019)

5G needs a tower within 200m.
I don't see how this will be practical in the country.


----------



## galumay (17 August 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> I thought the NBN contractors do all the provisioning - is Telstra an NBN contractor?




The ISP's do the provisioning, occasionally other ISPs stuff it up. Telstra stuff it up more than any other. (Some Telstra techs are now trained and onboarded as NBN contractors, but thats nothing to do with provisioning.)


----------



## galumay (17 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> IF 5G proves to be the massive leap forward, as the gurus say,




As someone in the industry, I have never heard anyone outside Telstra suggest there was any 'leap forward' in 5G, its 90% marketing spin, I doubt thats going to save the business!


----------



## sptrawler (18 August 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> 5G needs a tower within 200m.
> I don't see how this will be practical in the country.



That is where the nodes come into play, as relay transmitters in populated areas, apparently.
In the country, there will always be blackspots IMO


----------



## sptrawler (22 August 2019)

Boggo said:


> I'm out, gave back part of the profit from last trade.



That proved to be a good move Boggo, TLS have been on the slide ever since and IMO they have a long way to go.
The 5G will eventually be a winner, if the technology does in fact drive autonomous vehicles, but that is a long way into the future, if at all.
The reality is, if 5G doesn't bring about technology that demands far reaching mobile coverage, then Telstra is spending a lot of capital to replace existing infrastructure needlessly.
On the other hand, if the technology does become a must have feature, to drive productivity and efficiency improvements, then Telstra is in the box seat.
It is a big gamble that they probably had to take, time will tell if it puts a brake on the slow slide to the pack.
Just my opinion. I don't hold.


----------



## Boggo (22 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> ...
> 
> *It is a big gamble* that they probably had to take, time will tell if it puts a brake on the slow slide to the pack.
> Just my opinion. I don't hold.




Trying to trade it is a bit of a gamble too at the moment sptrawler as you never know what is next with them.
They have been predictable on the way up, may do the same on the way down ?

If it plays out then in should move into the W.4 retracement area between 38.2% and 50% but if it breaks below $3.40 then all bets may be off until next support around $3.27 (see chart below).

Watching this behaviour is an interesting exercise anyway and I picked up a few $$ on the way up, some good warrants available for short term hit and run trades. Lets see where to from here.

(click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (22 August 2019)

With your charting skills, I'm sure you will start and pick up a pattern, IMO the institutions will be lightening up, so volume may be the indicator that sets the pattern. Not that I know anything about charting.


----------



## sptrawler (31 August 2019)

I wonder where the TLS price will settle? I suppose it will depend a lot on where the earnings per share ends up at, post the NBN payments and reduction in operating costs (8,000 people).
Eventually it will become a good income generating share, if the price is right. 
I don't hold TlS.


----------



## Boggo (20 September 2019)

Follow on from post #2353 above (and from MCR thread reference).

Weekly chart, turned at the minimum reversal of fib 0.382 but waiting for an indication that a reversal may be in play at my "eyeball" test of 3.745.
Just my  again.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo (1 October 2019)

Follow on from above...

Starting to think that the boundaries for the next direction (up or down ?) have been set.
Will be interesting to watch.

(click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2019)

Things still aren't looking rosy with Telstra $2.1b net profit after tax (down 39%), $1.9b dividend sounds like a 90% payout ratio, which in a capital intensive company is unsustainable. IMO

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190830/pdf/4481dd1gqc2tkn.pdf


----------



## Boggo (15 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Things still aren't looking rosy with Telstra $2.1b net profit after tax (down 39%), $1.9b dividend sounds like a 90% payout ratio, which in a capital intensive company is unsustainable. IMO




Next few days should show if this is already priced in to the last few months, I'm tending to think it is ?


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2019)

Boggo said:


> Next few days should show if this is already priced in to the last few months, I'm tending to think it is ?



It has been ranging around your predicted price, so you could be right, they will still have to strip out a lot of costs to maintain the dividend around this level.


----------



## Boggo (16 October 2019)

@sptrawler TLS looking good so far.


----------



## sptrawler (22 October 2019)

Boggo said:


> @sptrawler TLS looking good so far.



It certainly looks as though you were right on the money Boggo, still in the range, well called.


----------



## Boggo (28 November 2019)

It's finally come back to life. My TLSIOO warrants were looking like heading towards decay for a while there.
Next question... is there another 40 cents in it ?

(Weekly at Wed 27th - click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler (10 December 2019)

Boggo said:


> It's finally come back to life. My TLSIOO warrants were looking like heading towards decay for a while there.
> Next question... is there another 40 cents in it ?
> 
> (Weekly at Wed 27th - click to expand)
> View attachment 98776



Well as usual Boggo, you have called it right, just back of holidays and TLS is bouncing.
Well done.
My guess some are moving from Banks to TLS, for dividend growth?
How has the volume been?


----------



## Boggo (10 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> ...
> 
> My guess some are moving from Banks to TLS, for dividend growth?
> How has the volume been?




Yes, it's slowly plodding in the right direction @sptrawler.
The more reliable patterns tend to move slowly, hopefully it will continue and if it does it could take til mid Feb to continue to the potential target area.

Nothing significant on the volume that I can see on the weekly anyway, tech/a may see some clues in there.

Cheers @sptrawler.


----------



## sptrawler (30 January 2020)

Boggo said:


> Yes, it's slowly plodding in the right direction @sptrawler.
> The more reliable patterns tend to move slowly, hopefully it will continue and if it does it could take til mid Feb to continue to the potential target area.
> 
> Nothing significant on the volume that I can see on the weekly anyway, tech/a may see some clues in there.
> ...



The share price is still holding well Boggo, I suppose the next step one way or the other, will be when it gives a market update on earnings?
ATM though there is obviously a positive sentiment.


----------



## Boggo (30 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> ...
> ATM though there is obviously a positive sentiment.




@sptrawler agree. It's having a bit of an issue getting past the constant sellers around the $3.90 area and this will probably repeat around the $4 area.

I'm tending to think that a bit of positive news will kick it on but in the meantime sit back and watch


----------



## sptrawler (6 February 2020)

Obviously the call from the regulators, for large companies to expedite their payments to service providers has hit a chord.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-of-decade-telstra-chief-20200206-p53ye2.html
From the article:
_The fairness of the telco's payment arrangements for small business suppliers has been in the spotlight over the fortnight. Telstra recently dumped its controversial supply chain finance arrangement with US company Taulia,which allowed suppliers to be paid in a shorter payment window but for a fee.

Telstra has since also committed to 20 day payment terms for 85 per cent of its supplier base.

Mr Penn said Telstra was now working to stop its supply chain finance arrangements in a way that did not disadvantage suppliers who had been using it_.
It certainly is about time, Government Departments and large Companies, paid their bills quickly. They sure are quick to jump on customers when they fall behind. 
I remember in the 1980's being assaulted in a country town, because I was wearing a power company uniform and the disgruntled person had had his power cut off.
Yet the power company owed him money for services provided, but they didn't pay invoices for 90 days, after the punch up we had a beer.  Christ it had nothing to do with me, I was installing a diesel gen set.


----------



## sptrawler (13 February 2020)

Telstra's results, it will be interesting to watch market reaction, we should be starting to get an idea of future earning potential IMO.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...3-p540c6.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true
From the article:
_Fixed revenue declined by 10.9 per cent to $2.38 million, hit by migration to the NBN and competition in market. Mobile revenue increased slightly by 0.3 per cent to $5.31 million. The company added 137,000 retail postpaid mobile services, including 91,000 from Belong.

Media revenue was hit by the performance of Foxtel from Telstra. Foxtel from Telstra declined by 5 per cent to $323 million and had 52,000 subscriber exits in the half. Telstra said it now has 1.625 million Telstra TV devices in market, while Sports Live Pass users increased by 602,000 to 3.194 million across AFL, NRL, netball and FFA.

The telco giant re-confirmed guidance with full year total income - excluding financial income - between $25.3 to $27.3 billion, and underlying EBITDA to be between $7.4 and $7.9 billion_.


----------



## Knobby22 (22 February 2020)

Interesting stat. 
If you bought Telstra and CSL 5 years ago, the dividend for CSL would now be equal to Telstras.


----------



## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

Big volume being traded today, I wonder if the market is reacting to perceived handset supply problems, that Telstra could face if the coronavirus issue worsens?


----------



## sptrawler (5 March 2020)

Another interesting move by Telstra in these uncertain times, they are making a big commitment to carbon zero, very honourable gesture just a funny time to announce it. Maybe with the volatility, it may hide any market reaction, possibly a clever move?

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...us-plan-to-cut-emissions-20200304-p546u2.html


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## UMike (5 March 2020)

I'd rather they concentrate on costs, service and profitability.


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## matty77 (23 March 2020)

Strong dividend player, more people working from home and Business "tends" to go TLS for safety reasons so I would expect some growth from TLS in this area. 

The merger that was TPM might get TLS to get their act together a bit more OR could damage them?


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## sptrawler (17 April 2020)

Telstra to issue 500m Euro 10 year bonds, they seem to be building a bit of a war chest ATM, I wonder if it for impending problems or a buying spree.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Telstra to issue 500m Euro 10 year bonds, they seem to be building a bit of a war chest ATM, I wonder if it for impending problems or a buying spree.



Probably just rolling debt. But a good idea to lock it in for a while. (as long as currency is hedged?)

Impending problems could be more likely to do with changing habits. I posted this in ST1 







> A view is, as we go longer in lockdown, that this has "driven business and entertainment online, but left telcos spending to service surging demand, and, with fixed pricing structures, no quick way to monetise the investment." "At the same time, roaming revenue has dried up as people travel less, and telcos are bracing for a slump in new contracts accompanying a wave of unemployment as businesses shut."



 Although other reports, from Andy Penn, no less, are less pessimistic







> "The fact that actually we can even contemplate large sectors of the economy and the population working and studying from home is in of itself a pretty impressive fact, given the technology and the capacity that’s had to be created and invested in to get us to that point.”
> “We are seeing an increase in mobile traffic, we’re seeing a shift in the peak time of mobile traffic, which was typically around 5:00 pm, it’s now trending more towards 2:00 pm in the afternoon. We’re seeing, obviously, volumes on the network more generally increase.”- Andy Penn, CEO


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## sptrawler (17 April 2020)

The drop in roaming revenue is an interesting one, I wonder how much revenue that generates.
Good articles Donna


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## Dona Ferentes (10 July 2020)

TLS has picked up a bit over the last week or so.... $3.20 -> $3.50.

Probably in anticipation of an August report that is less bad, plus of course the bait of a dividend, no matter how scrawny.

Also, seems to have moved to raise *postpaid mobile pricing* across the board by $5 to $15 a month. (which is bold)


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## Dona Ferentes (12 August 2020)

from earlier this month: 







> Telstra ...  entered an agreement to sell its data centre complex in Clayton, Victoria, to Centuria Industrial REIT for $416.7 million. The sale includes a triple-net lease-back arrangement which means Telstra will retain ownership of all IT & telecommunications equipment, as well as ongoing operations and responsibility for building upgrades and repairs, future capex requirements and security. The sale has no impact for Telstra customers.





> The lease is for an initial period of 30 years with two 10-year options for Telstra to extend the lease. Telstra CEO Andrew Penn said the sale was another marker of progress on the company’s T22 strategy. “_As part of T22, we have an ambition to monetise up to $2 billion worth of assets to strengthen our balance sheet. This deal means we have now reached over $1.5 billion. “Data centres are an incredibly important part of the digital ecosystem and we continue to own and operate world-leading facilities in Australia and overseas."_



The 3.2 hectare complex is 25km from the Melbourne CBD, and incorporates 10 buildings, including Telstra's newest 6.1MW data centre and its adjacent 6.6MW data centre and associated energy centre. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of August. The transaction will generate $416.7 million in proceeds. Due to the long tenure of the lease-back, the transaction will not be treated as a sale under accounting standards, therefore no accounting gain will arise.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 August 2020)

in these days of climate change, it would be unfair (to glaciers) to compare TLS to them.

But, within the organisation, what have we got... declining fixed line, expanding mobile, 5G (the great hope for IoT) and the NBN. Plus infrastructure. One analyst, with the eye for a deal, came out with this:


> _Infrastructure is probably the most attractive on the assumption that it can be successfully separated from the retail assets. Telecommunications infrastructure provides a long-term steady cash flow, which is highly valued by the market. Unfortunately, in Australia, there are no pure play communication tower investments. Telstra's communications infrastructure is part of the overall business and has not yet been *demerged *as a separate business; similarly with TPGs cable infrastructure_.



That may be about to change after a restructure announced last year, which resulted in Telstra splitting its infrastructure assets into a separate business segment called *InfraCo*. InfraCo consists of exchanges, ducts, data centres, subsea cables, fibre and 8000 towers that host networking equipment. We have just seen a data centre at Clayton leased to a REIT (#2379).



> Towers and other parts of InfraCo generate revenue from servicing Telstra alone. If this division was separated from Telstra, these assets could increase revenue by servicing other telcos. A tower that now services only Telstra could service all three mobile networks. Competitors would have to supply their own networking gear, but the infrastructure owner could earn three times as much revenue. Mobile network towers are a natural monopoly and it makes little sense to duplicate a network once it has been constructed. There is no duplication of water pipes or electricity wires and the same can apply to mobile towers. This is an important opportunity for investors to grasp.



Expect an Infrastructure entity to emerge; high yield, low growth, geared? .... especially in this 'low interest' era.


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## So_Cynical (12 August 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> We have just seen a data centre at Clayton *leased* to a REIT (#2379).
> 
> Expect an Infrastructure entity to emerge; high yield, low growth, geared? .... especially in this 'low interest' era.




Sold to the REIT and leased back - 416 million sale price, was just reading about this last night and found the sale to be a little strange, the property looks like 
a great growth asset and the kind of thing that a dynamic modern company would want to keep, note that TLS will continue to use the asset for maybe 30 years.


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## Boggo (12 August 2020)

Boggo said:


> @sptrawler agree. It's having a bit of an issue getting past the constant sellers around the $3.90 area and this will probably repeat around the $4 area.




Extract above was from a post around the end of January. It did hit $3.94 and then headed South from there.
MTPredictor gave a nice heads up back then and a few weeks ago signalled another short to $2.82.
Second signals are usually not as reliable as the first one in these situations (imo) but lets see how it pans out 

(click to expand)


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## Dona Ferentes (17 August 2020)

would a barcode scanner help interpret today's _One Minute_ price action?


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 August 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> would a barcode scanner help interpret today's _One Minute_ price action?
> 
> 
> View attachment 107730



I did scan it.

I've just bought the NBN. 

I may start a GoFund page.

gg


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## sptrawler (17 August 2020)

Boggo said:


> Extract above was from a post around the end of January. It did hit $3.94 and then headed South from there.
> MTPredictor gave a nice heads up back then and a few weeks ago signalled another short to $2.82.
> Second signals are usually not as reliable as the first one in these situations (imo) but lets see how it pans out



Again they are paying out more than they are earning, so as was worked out a while back in this thread a $2.80 price is a possibility.
A lot of punters would have expected Telstra to be immune from the virus, as everyone was either on the internet or on the phone, the drop in earnings probably came as a shock to many IMO.
If they hit $2.80 I will be getting in.
By the way great chart Boggo, cheers.


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## tinhat (17 August 2020)

I couldn't help myself...


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## tinhat (17 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Again they are paying out more than they are earning, so as was worked out a while back in this thread a $2.80 price is a possibility.
> A lot of punters would have expected Telstra to be immune from the virus, as everyone was either on the internet or on the phone, the drop in earnings probably came as a shock to many IMO.
> If they hit $2.80 I will be getting in.
> By the way great chart Boggo, cheers.




I haven't read the report or the recent coverage. It's been a while since I owned Telstra. You only get the confluence of the bravado of a David Murray, Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott once in your life-time.

With Telstra I think the free cash flow is more important for the maintenance of the dividend than the reported earnings figure. They have maintained strong free cash flow for some time but everything else is compressing, return on assets, return on equity profit margin all falling for years and with profit growth being on average negative for years now.

I don't know if this company transforms itself or just sits out to pasture as a cash cow. I assume the future is more in wholesale infrastructure and services rather than retail. I assume they don't want retail anymore as they keep jacking up their prices. I've moved three devices off Telstra to Woolworths Mobile (still Telstra network) recently and will be taking the NBN account elsewhere once my contract is up.


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## Boggo (26 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Again they are paying out more than they are earning, so as was worked out a while back in this thread a $2.80 price is a possibility....




I’ve been in and out of internet coverage in Arnhem Land and Areas of Kakadu so haven’t been keeping up with what’s happening to the share price.

Now in Katherine and getting updated and it seems like it could be on its way there @sptrawler.
Cheers.


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## sptrawler (26 August 2020)

tinhat said:


> I haven't read the report or the recent coverage. It's been a while since I owned Telstra. You only get the confluence of the bravado of a David Murray, Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott once in your life-time.
> 
> With Telstra I think the free cash flow is more important for the maintenance of the dividend than the reported earnings figure. They have maintained strong free cash flow for some time but everything else is compressing, return on assets, return on equity profit margin all falling for years and with profit growth being on average negative for years now.
> 
> I don't know if this company transforms itself or just sits out to pasture as a cash cow. I assume the future is more in wholesale infrastructure and services rather than retail. I assume they don't want retail anymore as they keep jacking up their prices. I've moved three devices off Telstra to Woolworths Mobile (still Telstra network) recently and will be taking the NBN account elsewhere once my contract is up.



Yes their payments from the NBN, for transferring subscribers will be drying up, now the project is nearing completion.
The ongoing rental of the exchanges could end up being spun off? Also I think I read they are trying to get out of the rural service obligation, they really are reducing down to just another service provider. So as you say a possible cash cow with minimal growth.
A big issue is having the best coverage, only affects those who live or travel to remote areas and that isn't where you make the bulk of your money, the cities are.
The cost of providing the remote services and upgrading them probably outweighs what you earn from them.


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## Newt (29 August 2020)

Boggo said:


> I’ve been in and out of internet coverage in Arnhem Land and Areas of Kakadu so haven’t been keeping up with what’s happening to the share price.
> 
> Now in Katherine and getting updated and it seems like it could be on its way there @sptrawler.
> Cheers.




Wonderful part of Australia.  Out of interest Boggo, are you still trading your systems while on the move?


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## Boggo (29 August 2020)

Newt said:


> Wonderful part of Australia.  Out of interest Boggo, are you still trading your systems while on the move?




No I’m not @Newt.
Just adjusted the stops where necessary on existing holdings and left any updates etc until I get back on around the 5th Sept.
Cheers.


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## Newt (29 August 2020)

Sounds like a good compromise.  Safe travels!


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## fiftyeight (31 August 2020)

Tin foil hat time.

Telstra = Telstar



sptrawler said:


> Yes their payments from the NBN, for transferring subscribers will be drying up, now the project is nearing completion.
> The *ongoing rental of the exchanges* could end up being spun off? Also I think I read they are trying to *get out of the rural service obligation*, they really are reducing down to just another service provider. So as you say a possible cash cow with minimal growth.




Building some kind of cash pile maybe???

ABC running stories on how awesome space is, and that space is the new frontier.

Who else would the gov give a contract too, if oz did go space broadband?

If TLS reduce their divs and/or walk away from any NBN or other commitments, who knows hahaha


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## danz95 (1 September 2020)

What does everyone think about averaging down TLS? I stupidly bought 9000 TLS at 3.42 and a couple weeks ago averaged down by adding another 2800 shares to create an average of 3.35. now they are sitting at 2.84 (a 52 week low) and i now have a $6220 loss on a $40000 investment. By my calculation if i average down again, i can buy another $10000 worth. That equates to around another 3500 shares, creating 15300 shares at an average of $3.25 and turning a $6220 loss into $3967. (i think) is this a good idea?


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## sptrawler (1 September 2020)

danz95 said:


> What does everyone think about averaging down TLS? I stupidly bought 9000 TLS at 3.42 and a couple weeks ago averaged down by adding another 2800 shares to create an average of 3.35. now they are sitting at 2.84 (a 52 week low) and i now have a $6220 loss on a $40000 investment. By my calculation if i average down again, i can buy another $10000 worth. That equates to around another 3500 shares, creating 15300 shares at an average of $3.25 and turning a $6220 loss into $3967. (i think) is this a good idea?



That is something no one can tell you, we aren't advisers, just people who chat about our own thoughts on shares.
Read through the TLS share thread and make up your own mind, there is a lot of history in the thread, so it should give you food for thought.


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## Ferret (2 September 2020)

TLS is one I've lost money on in the past, but I am also interested again at current prices.

I last added some at 2.62 in 2018.  I might add some more now.


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## sptrawler (2 September 2020)

Ferret said:


> TLS is one I've lost money on in the past, but I am also interested again at current prices.
> 
> I last added some at 2.62 in 2018.  I might add some more now.



I tend to agree with you Ferret, IMO at current prices they should provide a reasonable dividend going froward, I will be buying in just have to work out what to sell to get the money together.


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## cutz (2 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I tend to agree with you Ferret, IMO at current prices they should provide a reasonable dividend going froward, I will be buying in just have to work out what to sell to get the money together.




Same here, over the years I haven't been a particular fan of TLS, but with price action of late indicating oversold I couldn't resist entering into a low risk leveraged strategy.


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## sptrawler (2 September 2020)

I was having a think today, where does Telstra get its growth from?
Technology is a fast moving and highly competitive space, so the advantage Telstra has is better coverage in remote areas, but that gives much lower returns due to sparse population and high service costs.
So does Telstra get an advantage in high density, high volume areas? dubious most users are very price conscious, which in reality forced Telstra to introduce "beyond" the budget plan section.
Will 5G be a game changer? possibly for the short term, but competitors will introduce it and cramp margins again.
The other problem is as technology is so fast moving, how long before 6G and 7G? this will be another cost to Telstra as it spends to keep up. 
The problem is the return on investment for Telstra isn't a lot, when they can't charge a lot more for the new technology, people don't want to spend a lot more for the perceived improvement.
I just can't work out where Telstra's growth is going to come from.
Maybe someone can enlighten me?


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## Newt (2 September 2020)

From a TA price momentum perspective, TLS has recently made new 18 month lows, currently has no sign of an upward trend on medium to long timeframes (weekly, monthly), is below the 200 day (daily) Moving Average, and has less bullish price momentum than a garden snail with a tummy full of Yates slug and snail pellets.  

It would normally seem prudent to await at least 6 month new highs, and bullish action above, at least, a very long period moving average.  As attractive as the dividend might be, any gains could be quickly eroded by any further price falls.  

(Disclaimer:  I would also say a 33% reduction in price requires a 50% gain to recoup losses, which some FA investors on ASF would argue is a falsehood  )


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## cutz (2 September 2020)

Newt said:


> It would normally seem prudent to await at least 6 month new highs, and bullish action above, at least, a very long period moving average.




Hey Newt ,

What's the point of waiting till its trading above it's very long period moving average, by then there won't be much left to give ?

The way I see it the stock price is sitting on support that's been established for quite a while.


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## Newt (3 September 2020)

Hi cutz

You're quite right - for an ASX20 stock there is so much inertia that small cap price momentum trading may not apply.  I was mainly seeking to show there are many possible interpretations on what might happen, and TA traders are generally more concerned setting entry/exit/risk margins than predicting.  

Your interpretation may well be correct.  Only time will tell of course, and any new trade could benefit from specifying what criteria will constitute confirmation of a rebound off resistance and where the stop loss should be.


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## Boggo (3 September 2020)

Follow on from this post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1088089/

So far it's got to one cent of the software prediction and ahead of time (lateral movement) which TLS seems to do.
I'm still not seeing anything positive in it's behaviour at the moment and I wouldn't be surprised to see it move into the sub $2.80 area, not advice, just my 

Current weekly chart, click to expand.


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## Boggo (16 September 2020)

Just another annoying TLS EW post, and just my opinion 

It closed on the predicted $2.82 yesterday.
I'm still not seeing anything positive in it's behaviour and wondering if the current pattern may not yet be complete ?.

(click to expand)


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## Knobby22 (16 September 2020)

I haven't looked at Telstra for years but I was aware they were getting good income from NBN roll-out, (selling their final wires to home, allowing some use of their infrastructure). Now that work is finished it has to reduce their profits long term.

Not a company that shouts buy me.


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## sptrawler (16 September 2020)

My gut feeling is, there is a lot of hope going into the infraco arm, if it doesn't end up getting the NBN, well then it is anyone's guess.








						UBS runs numbers on Telstra InfraCo/NBNCo mega deal
					

The build of Australia's National Broadband Network is expected to finish later this year and when it does the firing gun on NBNCo's sale will start being loaded.




					www.afr.com
				



Just my thoughts.
I don't hold.


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## sptrawler (13 October 2020)

The Telstra chairmans address didn't do anything for my underlying feelings, I still feel there is a lot of navel gazing going on, as to where the growth and income is coming from.
There are several references, as to whether the earnings are achievable, to support the current  dividend.


			https://asx.api.markitdigital.com/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292952-3A552417?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


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## Dona Ferentes (12 November 2020)

Telstra said that its proposed restructure will enable it to take   advantage of potential monetisation opportunities for its infrastructure  assets. The restructure is expected to be complete by December  2021. The business will be split into *InfraCo Fixed*, *InfraCo Towers* and  *ServeCo*.

_



			"The proposed restructure is one of the most significant  in Telstra history and the largest corporate change since  privatisation. It will unlock value in the company, improve the returns  from the company's assets and create further optionality for the  future,"
		
Click to expand...


_.. said CEO Andy Penn_.



			"The challenges and disruptions of  the last 6 to 12 months have reinforced the increasing value of  infrastructure assets globally; the importance of the digital economy,  not only to business but to the whole of Australia and its economic  recovery; and the dependence of the digital economy on  telecommunications as its platform. "Our proposed new corporate  structure reflects this new world and will help us support the  foundation for it; one that is in the interests of our shareholders,  our employees, our customers, and ultimately one that benefits the country overall."
		
Click to expand...


_
But, is this just _*History repeating?*_


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## sptrawler (12 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Telstra said that its proposed restructure will enable it to take   advantage of potential monetisation opportunities for its infrastructure  assets. The restructure is expected to be complete by December  2021. The business will be split into *InfraCo Fixed*, *InfraCo Towers* and  *ServeCo*.
> 
> .. said CEO Andy Penn_._
> 
> ...



I guess the question is, will Telstra be worth the sum of its parts?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 December 2020)

*Average Price of 1GB Mobile Data ($US)*





_Source: www.cable.co.uk/mobiles/worldwide-data-pricing/

"If one looks at the chart above, Australians are paying less for their mobile data than places like Pakistan and Bangladesh, and we believe that over time, mobile rates in Australia will rise to be more in line with other developed market economies."_
- Anton Tagliaferro; Investors Mutual



> Despite the headwinds of the last few years from the loss of fixed line revenues to the NBN and declining mobile earnings, we remain optimistic about Telstra for three key reasons – the prospect of improved mobile earnings as a result of consolidation in the sector; the likely monetisation of some of Telstra’s infrastructure assets; and Telstra’s projected strong cashflows, all of which should enable the company to improve its financial position and maintain its dividend.











						Where is the upside in Telstra? – ShareCafe
					

Telstra’s share price performance has been lacklustre over the last few years. So what does IML find attractive about Telstra, and why have they increased their holdings over the last three to six months?




					www.sharecafe.com.au


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## sptrawler (6 December 2020)

Interesting report @Dona Ferentes and I'm trying to get excited about them, but ATM I can't. 
I did get excited when they went into the $2.70 region, but failed to act, hoping for more downside that never came.









						Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) Stock Price & Quote Analysis  - Simply Wall St
					

Research Telstra Group (TLS) stock with daily updated analysis.




					simplywall.st
				




*RISK ANALYSIS*


> Interest payments are not well covered by earnings





> Dividend of 5.25% is not well covered by earnings





> Large one-off items impacting financial results


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## Miner (6 December 2020)

Technically COVID 19 has opened a new world. I believe at a current price following the demerger, TLS is more than likely to offer a great opportunity for the believers. It has the size. insto's backing, organisation, and reputation. Some small ups and downs but in midterm to longterm TLS will outweigh its competitors.
Disclaimer - Holding long - DYOR - every one has his or her own investment/trading strategy


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## sptrawler (6 December 2020)

Miner said:


> Technically COVID 19 has opened a new world. I believe at a current price following the demerger, TLS is more than likely to offer a great opportunity for the believers. It has the size. insto's backing, organisation, and reputation. Some small ups and downs but in midterm to longterm TLS will outweigh its competitors.
> Disclaimer - Holding long - DYOR - every one has his or her own investment/trading strategy



An interesting aside, I wonder how they will break up the debt, with the demerger, how much each entity takes with it and how they fund it.
Certainly an interesting period in Telstra's history.


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## Miner (6 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> An interesting aside, I wonder how they will break up the debt, with the demerger, how much each entity takes with it and how they fund it.
> Certainly an interesting period in Telstra's history.



It is a multi billion dollar question. Any one knows the answer would be having lunch with Andrew. 
May be @Joe Blow invites Andrew Penn to answer us through ASF


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## sptrawler (11 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The Telstra chairmans address didn't do anything for my underlying feelings, I still feel there is a lot of navel gazing going on, as to where the growth and income is coming from.
> There are several references, as to whether the earnings are achievable, to support the current  dividend.
> 
> 
> https://asx.api.markitdigital.com/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02292952-3A552417?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4



Sounds as though the question still needs answering.








						Telstra shares hit six month high as 16¢ dividend maintained
					

Telstra’s earnings guidance has given its shareholders confidence despite a weak fiscal half year result.




					www.theage.com.au
				



From the article:
_Telstra has reported a double-digit decline in underlying earnings for the December half, dragged down by payments to the national broadband network and an estimated $170 million hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, but flagged its battered mobile division would return to growth by the end of the financial year.

The telco giant’s revenue fell 10.4 per cent to $12 billion in the half year to December 31, while net profit dipped by 2.2 per cent to $1.1 billion as chief executive Andrew Penn flagged the telco would look for external investors for its InfraCo Tower division.
Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell by 14.2 per cent to $3.3 billion over the half, due to large payments to NBN Co and the damage from the coronavirus pandemic, which among other issues caused declines in international roaming revenues and additional expenses for customer support. It also triggered $100 million in costs from the pause in previously planned job cuts as the pandemic unfolded. The company earlier this month restarted its redundancy program, which is set to eliminate 1400 jobs, with another 800 roles to be axed by the end of the year_.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 March 2021)

and getting close to a 12 month high for TLS, spurred on by corporate activity

Telstra 22/03 announced the _next steps in its proposed legal restructure to enable it to better realise the value of its infrastructure assets, take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities and create additional value for shareholders. The proposed legal structure within the Telstra Group, expected to be completed by December 2021, includes the following: _
_ • *InfraCo Fixed*, which would own and operate Telstra’s passive or physical infrastructure assets: the ducts, fibre, data centres, and exchanges that underpin Telstra’s fixed telecommunications network. This will provide important optionality to create additional value from these assets in the future. 
• *InfraCo Towers,* which would own and operate Telstra’s passive or physical mobile tower assets, which Telstra is looking to monetise given the strong demand and compelling valuations for this type of high-quality infrastructure. 
• *ServeCo*, which would continue to focus on creating innovative products and services, supporting customers and delivering the best possible customer experience. ServeCo would own the active parts of the network, including the radio access network and spectrum assets to ensure Telstra continues to maintain its industry leading mobile coverage and network superiority. 

Telstra also intends to establish its *international business *under a separate subsidiary within the Telstra Group to keep that part of the business, including subsea cables, together as one entity. The international assets will be transferred to the new subsidiary over time, subject to relevant approvals and engagement with appropriate stakeholders_.

Also, Telstra will delist its scrip trading on the New Zealand Stock Exchange from June 16 in favour of a single ASX listing. 


> _Telstra  is looking to simplify its administration and streamline its   shareholder services. Telstra shareholders on the New Zealand register   have been reducing over time and, given the accessibility of the ASX to New Zealand-based shareholders, Telstra considers that delisting is an appropriate step_,


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## Dona Ferentes (5 May 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and getting close to a 12 month high for TLS, spurred on by corporate activity..



And punched through for the 12 month high today.

 picked up 5G spectrum recently


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## sptrawler (5 May 2021)

I still can't get excited, maybe I'm just gun shy.


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## sptrawler (13 May 2021)

Not a good look for Telstra, but a drop in the ocean to the bottom line, it will scare the hell out of service providers though.









						The second-largest fine in Australian consumer law history has been issued to Telstra
					

The Federal Court orders Telstra to pay $50 million, plus costs, for its treatment of Indigenous customers in remote areas, the second-largest penalty ever imposed on a company for breaking Australian consumer law.




					www.abc.net.au


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## peter2 (13 May 2021)

Who pays for it? The shareholder of course, not the executives who made the decisions.


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## sptrawler (14 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> Who pays for it? The shareholder of course, not the executives who made the decisions.



Telstra will end up being the next AMP IMO, a great Australian institution that is slowly ground down.
Just my opinion and their demise wont be solely due to poor management.
More due to a ridiculous belief that 25 million people can support unlimited competition.
Some things shouldnt be privatised, in a small market place, when in reality they are an essential service. The NBN proved that.
I havent held for years and cant bring myself to re enter.
It says something when a market sector leader, is at the same price it was, when it was floated 20 years ago.


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## Newt (16 May 2021)

Newt said:


> Hi cutz
> 
> You're quite right - for an ASX20 stock there is so much inertia that small cap price momentum trading may not apply.  I was mainly seeking to show there are many possible interpretations on what might happen, and TA traders are generally more concerned setting entry/exit/risk margins than predicting.
> 
> Your interpretation may well be correct.  Only time will tell of course, and any new trade could benefit from specifying what criteria will constitute confirmation of a rebound off resistance and where the stop loss should be.




Captain Hindsight just noticed that a 200 day MA applied to telstra since Sept last year would have resulted in a 10-25% proiftable trade, and avoided the Oct 2020 drawdown.

My work here is done - I must move on to save another family!   Up and away......


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## Dona Ferentes (29 June 2021)

(probably should belong in the Nimby thread)

Telstra networks and IT executive Nikos Katinakis said the initial battle to build new mobile infrastructure, particularly in *Byron Bay*, had been “very difficult” but the telco had now managed to activate its 5G network in the area.



> “_We even had a demonstration a few months ago and you could see most of the protesters were using the 4G network to record and stream the protest, and then we were getting complaints about the capacity of the network_,” Mr Katinakis said.





> “_So we are sort of going in circles ... it is my firm belief that it is just a matter of time before we see these communities come around_.”



Of course there are other communities that would welcome the upgrade, so why not just let them stew.

Thomas Picketty refers to these groupuscules as the _Brahmin Left _* , but that is being too kind, as it implies some sense of place (and intelligence). Perhaps the slang as used in France to label them _les Bobos_, is more appropriate.

*_Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948-2020_


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## Dona Ferentes (30 June 2021)

Telstra up on news of the deal to sell 49% of InfraCo Towers.

A consortium has paid $2.8bill for what is 28x EV/EBITDA, which is at the upper end of what similar businesses have sold for around the world, with the following aspects:

the multiple is impressive in that it is not leveraged
a minority stake, with Telstra keeps control
sold to local consortium - Future Fund, the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation and Sunsuper - so no FIRB considerations
a convergence of views for what are long term assets

Marko Bogoievski, chief executive of Morrison & Co, which stitched together the deal and will manage the investment on behalf of the consortium, says a key to making an offer that could successfully pre-empt the auction was to come up with a structure that met Telstra’s specific needs. A *commitment to keep improving the tower network was particularly crucial.*

He says a problem with similar transactions around the world has been strained relationships between the infrastructure owner and their major customer.


> “_We are taking the exact opposite stance_,” Bogoievski says. “_The way to be successful is to make sure they’re successful_.”




The consortium’s focus, he says, will be making sure Telstra’s service arm gets what it needs, particularly around access to existing towers and new towers as required.


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## So_Cynical (30 June 2021)

Selling half the towers seems like a dumb move, i was hoping they would spin them off and give shareholders a in specking distribution of shares.


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## sptrawler (30 June 2021)

Still don't see where the sustained dividend is going to come from? But it is great to see China didn't buy our communication towers. 🤣


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## Dona Ferentes (9 August 2021)

Telstra Health to acquire MedicalDirector

09 August 2021: Telstra announced that Telstra Health has entered into a binding agreement to acquire leading GP clinical and practice management software company MedicalDirector for an enterprise value of A$350 million. (MedicalDirector was formerly owned  by ASX listed Healius (formerly Primary Health Care), before it was sold  to Affinity for $155 million in 2016.)

Telstra Health Board Chair Brendon Riley said the acquisition of MedicalDirector was a key step in Telstra Health’s vision to create a connected and improved digital health experience for all.


> “_MedicalDirector is a modern clinical and practice management solution that supports GPs and other medical specialists to focus on providing high quality care and reducing time on paperwork and administration. It supports consultations by medical practitioners through a comprehensive patient medical record, including electronic prescriptions, options for virtual consultations, patient care plans, real time alerts about drug safety and drug interaction, and a range of other functionalities,” _Mr Riley said.





> _“GPs play a central role in connecting to every part of the health and aged care systems, and practice management is an incredibly important addition for Telstra Health in providing quality solutions and supporting them to deliver care. Telstra Health has transformed substantially over the past five years and this announcement reflects its continuing maturity as a business and its importance as part of Telstra’s long-term growth strategy. It also reflects its continued growth into a global business, including strengthening our existing presence in the UK where MedicalDirector has been establishing itself in recent years.”_




MedicalDirector has been trusted by healthcare practitioners for over 25 years, providing software as a service and innovation to the healthcare industry, including across electronic health records, patient and practice management, billing, scheduling, care coordination, medicines information and clinical content. Its SaaS solutions support general practitioners and other specialists and pharmacies in the Australian healthcare industry. It currently supports approximately 23,000 medical practitioners and is used to deliver more than 80 million consultations a year.

Telstra Health’s Managing Director, Professor Mary Foley AM, said the acquisition supported Telstra Health’s vision to be a leading partner to the health and aged care sectors.


> “_Patient care journeys move back and forth across home, clinics, hospitals, aged-care and pharmacies. This acquisition helps realise our vision to connect and co-ordinate across the continuum of care, enabling smoother experiences for those who need it and provide it.” __Digital solutions support operational efficiency and effectiveness and help clinicians and other care providers solve some of the complex problems they face in the delivery of care.”  “We will significantly increase investment in MedicalDirector to provide medical practitioners with the best digital solutions, across desktop and cloud, to support the future delivery of primary health care."_


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Telstra Health to acquire MedicalDirector
> 
> 09 August 2021: Telstra announced that Telstra Health has entered into a binding agreement to acquire leading GP clinical and practice management software company MedicalDirector for an enterprise value of A$350 million. (MedicalDirector was formerly owned  by ASX listed Healius (formerly Primary Health Care), before it was sold  to Affinity for $155 million in 2016.)
> 
> ...



My local quack just changed from Medical Director to Best Practices.

She still uses Google. I've tried to get her to change to Duckduckgo. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (9 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My local quack ... tried to get her to change to Duckduckgo.



Just put it on the bill!?

I think TLS is looking like the banks 15 years ago, when they veered into Financial Services omnichannels


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## basilio (9 August 2021)

I thought this was an outstanding piece of public relations by Telstra.  They have made all calls from their public phones free.
The cost is peanuts -$5m a year - but the goodwill should be excellent.

Next question is how long will the public phones stay in service ?








						Telstra to make public pay phone calls around Australia free
					

Standard national calls and SMS from Telstra’s network of more than 15,000 pay phones will be made free




					www.theguardian.com


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## sptrawler (13 August 2021)

Telstra sounds all upbeat, but i still can't see where it is going to get its earnings upgrade from.
2020-2021 earnings fell 9.6% to $6.7b and previously Andy Penn stated earnings need to be between $7.5 and $8.5b to support the current dividend. The poor result is apparently due to NBN and pandemic headwinds, I would have thought with people being at home streaming would have increased usage.
I'm probably missing something, but I still can't get excited.








						Telstra shares hit two-year high as investors cheer upbeat outlook
					

Telstra chief executive Andy Penn has declared the telecoms giant has reached a tipping point after a rise in profits allowed it to hold its 16¢ dividend steady




					www.smh.com.au


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## miawilson (25 August 2021)

Hello,

Let me start out by saying I am a splunk + tls novice.

Over the last 18 months, I POC'ed an further onboarded Splunk + Cribl in my firm. I get events in either via splunkforwarder and/or syslog.

When I initially setup my production environment, I did not bother with setting up TLS in my communication between splunkforwarder to Cribl/SplunkIDX due to it being a secure container + time constraint to go live.

I am planning to move away from syslog to splunkforwarder to get events in. I have a few very fundamental questions.


What is the smallest key length I can use, which leads to my 2nd question
If I enable TLS between the splunkforwarder and/or cribl/splunkidx does that automatically imply compression happens considering all the data flowing is pure ascii text.
My objective is not securing these events, but optimizing the tcp flow at a network level as there are points in the morning when a lot of applications come up, there are some udp drops and I lose about 1% or even less of the events.


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## sptrawler (25 August 2021)

Sounds like a question for the whirlpool forum, this is a stock forum. 
I could be wrong and what you are talking about is stock related and I'm just too old to understand the lingo.
I know what spunk is , but what is cribl?


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## divs4ever (25 August 2021)

well some of it is in regard to networking  , and maybe a few other members have more practice than me in that area 

 but i agree Whirlpool  might be a better place to ask the questions


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 August 2021)

miawilson said:


> Hello,
> 
> Let me start out by saying I am a splunk + tls novice.
> 
> ...



Please ignore the digitally challenged on ASF @miawilson .

In answer to your questions which I ran past the barflies here at the hotel, at least those able to text an Uber without falling over.

1. 
In the Splunk indexer's inputs configuration, you'll want to configure a UDP listener on port 514, with the type set to syslog (which allows it to figure out some of the default syslog fields) and the host set to the source of the traffic (which allows it to set the host field for the log items appropriately). Once this is done, any standard syslog device can send data to the Splunk indexer, and it will be happily accepted by Splunk.

2.
No.

Simples.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (20 November 2021)

gee whizz, Telstra has held above $4 for two days in a row. And at the start of the year, it was sub $3. What has happened?

I have never met anyone with a good thing to say about their customer service, but somehow it is the default option for many users, possibly the only (realistic) option. And it is all about data, and bandwidth.


*Ally Selby: *_Hello, and welcome to Livewire’s Buy Hold Sell. I’m Ally Selby, and today we’re discussing quality companies with resilient cash flows and further earnings upside on the horizon, and to do that, we’re joined by Rhett Kessler from Pengana and Stuart Welch from Alphinity. First up, we have national treasure Telstra, which has seen its share price rise around 27 per cent over the past 12 months. Rhett, I might start on you. Is it a_* buy, hold or sell ?

Rhett Kessler (BUY):* _It’s a buy for us. It’s one of our largest holdings in the portfolio. We like the fact that the two main assets are the mobile phone network, and let’s face it, mobile data is the new oxygen. I have four kids. Try and take it away from them._

_So, that’s a very good business, and they’re obviously good engineers because they’ve got the best network, and they’re very good marketers because they managed to get a 15-20 per cent premium for the same data that their competitors sell.

The other bit we really like is the fact that it’s got an inflation-protected arrangement with the NBN, where it rents the infrastructure on a CPI contract. So my view is inflation’s coming and that gives a really nice kicker to earnings if it does turn up._

*Ally Selby:* Also, a kicker for earnings is Telstra’s just announced two new partnerships with the Aussie government. Stuart, over to you. Is Telstra a buy, hold or sell?

*Stuart Welch (SELL):* _It’s a sell for us. So I think the share prices got quite excited and trended up after they did a deal to sell some of their mobile phone towers._

_They’re pretty lofty prices, and we may hear more about asset sales at their investor day. That’s not too far away, but for us, now that the NBN existential threat is behind it, it’s back to being predominantly a mobile-phone operator.

And although they are the best network in the country with the widest reach and the most spectrum, it’s a pretty mature space. And so from our perspective, we see better opportunities elsewhere_.


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## UMike (20 November 2021)

Been a long term trader of TLS and consumer of their services,
.
Have One long horror story with them but otherwise been happy. Bought alot sub $3 last year and am very happy.

Massive company and hard for a pleb to fully value and understand.

Still hold.


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## Tyre Kicker (20 November 2021)

Customer service has improved out of site in the last 12 months. Certainly looks like Penn has turned the ship around somewhat.

Divi is ok if you got in near the lows. Any future increase in dividend will give the share price a nice kick along too.

Looks to be a bit to look forward to really.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 November 2021)

Tyre Kicker said:


> Customer service has improved out of site in the last 12 months.



Certainly has moved out off site. The local shopfront closed and I have to go to some anodyne shopping complex more than 10 km away.

Yes there were Covid closures, but is that just an excuse?


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## Tyre Kicker (20 November 2021)

Ha. Left myself open to that one!


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## sptrawler (21 November 2021)

Still a long way to go, to get back to $7.40 issue price.


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## sptrawler (3 February 2022)

Telstra, will more cash burn equal more income? I'm still not convinced. DYOR








						Telstra’s Penn says new $1.6b spend good for earnings
					

The telco says its plans to  lay new fibre optic networks, and build and manage on-the-ground satellite support will deliver incremental earnings.




					www.afr.com


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## mullokintyre (3 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Telstra, will more cash burn equal more income? I'm still not convinced. DYOR
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah, adding more fibre optic cable in the cities already well supplied with FOC.
Pity he couldn't spend a little to relieve the poor  services in areas outside the big cities.
Mick


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## sptrawler (3 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Yeah, adding more fibre optic cable in the cities already well supplied with FOC.
> Pity he couldn't spend a little to relieve the poor  services in areas outside the big cities.
> Mick



Not enough return out there Mick, that's why only Telstra are out there and the very reason it should never have been privatised in the first place.
It's an essential service these days, it shouldn't be based on the must make a profit private industry format, hopefully at some stage a Govt  with a few balls will buy it back into public ownership..


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## JohnDe (22 February 2022)

Interesting, looks like there is more room for growth in TLS 



> Monday’s 10-year network sharing agreement between Australia’s No. 1 and No. 3 telcos is strange: strange because Telstra and TPG, traditionally fierce competitors, both feel they come out winners.
> 
> It turns out that when rivals co-operate they can both do well out of it. Sharing allows them to monetise their infrastructure. How refreshing compared to some other decisions taken by business leaders, notably the shameful overinvestment in LNG export plants.
> 
> ...






			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/telstratpg-a-little-cooperation-goes-a-long-way-in-the-telecoms-market/news-story/28a570773e86d00ffba06e8f579334d3


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## sptrawler (29 April 2022)

I see Telstra is still wandering around in circles, wondering where to go.

IDNH









						channelnews :  Why Is Telstra Looking To Buy Out Fetch TV When They Could Buy News Corp’s Share Of Foxtel?
					

Serious questions are being asked as to why Telstra is in discussions to buy a share in Fetch TV, who is a key partner of Optus. Telstra owns 35% of archrival Foxtel with insiders telling ChannelNews that Telstra believe that they can still own a 35% share in Foxtel and a major share of Fetch...




					www.channelnews.com.au


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## JohnDe (14 July 2022)

Fetch is now part of Telstra. 

I don't see a lot of growth for Foxtel.



> *Telstra’s Acquisition Of Fetch TV Given Green Light*
> 
> Telstra’s takeover bid of content aggregator Fetch TV has been approved by the ACCC.
> 
> ...


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## sptrawler (14 July 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Fetch is now part of Telstra.
> 
> I don't see a lot of growth for Foxtel.



What is the underlying difference between Fetch and Foxtel? Aren't they both just streaming devices. 
I don't have either by the way and I haven't owned Telstra for years.


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## JohnDe (14 July 2022)

Telstra on a role?



> *Telstra completes multi-billion dollar Digicel deal, widely seen as a bid to counter China’s rising regional influence*
> 
> Telstra has completed its acquisition of Digicel Pacific and has received all necessary government and regulatory approvals for the $US1.6bn ($2.4bn) deal, in what as been widely viewed as a political move to counter the rising regional influence of China.
> 
> ...


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## JohnDe (12 August 2022)

Telstra announcing a bright future and increases in profits for next few years. There will be investors that will disagree, but so far the facts are on the side of the TLS board. I’ve been lucky with TLS, luck only lasts for so long 😊



> The message behind Penn’s parting Telstra profit​
> A small but highly symbolic gesture by Telstra’s board – hiking the second-half dividend by half a cent – sent a clear message that the telco has made it through to the other side of a painful but much-needed makeover.
> Chief executive Andy Penn steps down at the end of the month after more than seven years and has largely delivered on his ambitious T22 program that slashed billions in costs, including pulling 8000 staff from the organisation, slicing management layers and selling off heavy assets such as towers.
> 
> ...


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## sptrawler (12 August 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Telstra announcing a bright future and increases in profits for next few years. There will be investors that will disagree, but so far the facts are on the side of the TLS board. I’ve been lucky with TLS, luck only lasts for so long 😊



Best of luck sunshine 🤣 you're obviously not a long term holder.
Maybe I will get to see them back at the price of the sale of the third tranche.
Absolute ripper share.😉
Way back when, the Govt had no trouble selling Telstra to the widowed mother in law, I couldn't convince her to buy CBA at $10, just shows how much mums and dads listen to politicians and the media.


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## JohnDe (12 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Best of luck sunshine 🤣 you're obviously not a long term holder.
> Maybe I will get to see them back at the price of the sale of the third tranche.
> Absolute ripper share.😉
> Way back when, the Govt had no trouble selling Telstra to the widowed mother in law, I couldn't convince her to buy CBA at $10, just shows how much mums and dads listen to politicians and the media.
> ...




Well sparky, I did mention that I had been lucky  

Purchased T1 in 1997, first child born in 1999. Bit of bad luck in early 2000 with an investment property, still owned by the bank, was trashed by tenants. However this is where the good luck picked up, sold all TLS shares at a good profit to fund the renovation of property, increased rent and never had another issue. 12 years later bulldozed the house, sudivded and built two beautiful homes and haven't looked back since. 

In 2020 I decided to own TLS again and purchased at $2.80.

Yes, luck and sunshine for me and TLS. Will it last, I don't know but I will monitor it like I do all my investments.


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## sptrawler (12 August 2022)

JohnDe said:


> In 2020 I decided to own TLS again and purchased at $2.80.
> 
> Yes, luck and sunshine for me and TLS. Will it last, I don't know but I will monitor it like I do all my investments.



Yes if you want to trawl back through this thread, I kept saying they are a good buy at $2.80, I just couldn't bring myself to get back in.
I made a profit when I sold years and years ago, but they are a sad quasi govt dept, that will never be allowed to grow IMO. When they do the ACCC will again put the brakes on, in the name of competition.
I've made a lot more out of MCR at 30cents. And I personally think they will double before TLS.😂
It will be interesting to watch. But I have been wrong before on many occassions.


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## Dona Ferentes (21 October 2022)

On 20 October 2022, Telstra announced that the scheme of arrangement being used by it to help finalise its corporate restructure has become legally effective. 

As a result, Telstra will be changing stock code form TLS to *TLSDA *on 21 October 2022. The ASX will purge all orders for TLS due to the change. New orders can be placed for Telstra using the new stock code TLSDA from 21 October 2022 when the market opens ..


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