# Sectors/Stocks to OUTPERFORM in short term



## JWR (9 June 2009)

I thought I'd start this thread as I am fairly new to the share market and want to know what everyone's thoughts are on which sectors will outperform the Aussie market in the short term (next 1-3 months.) Specific stocks with charts would be reccomended as well, and reasons why you believe this will happen. Welcome for any technical analysts with possible breakouts, and any contrarian views that can make $$$ in the short term - for all long stocks.


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## KurwaJegoMac (9 June 2009)

JWR said:


> I thought I'd start this thread as I am fairly new to the share market and want to know what everyone's thoughts are on which sectors will outperform the Aussie market in the short term (next 1-3 months.) Specific stocks with charts would be reccomended as well, and reasons why you believe this will happen. Welcome for any technical analysts with possible breakouts, and any contrarian views that can make $$$ in the short term - for all long stocks.




I'm going to be honest here and say I think it's a little rude and presumptuous to request that people provide you:

1) Their recommended stock picks + charts
2) Their reasons as to why they picked the stock
3) Technical analysis with possible breakouts laid out for you

When you have provided no evidence that you have done any of the above research and analysis yourself.

I understand that you're new to the market and from what I can see you're new to the forum also. My recommendation is that you perhaps rephrase your question and stick to asking about sectors which people think may outperform in the short term, then go out and do your own research and technical analysis first.

Once you've done some of your own research and have a few stock selections, then ask others what they think of your stock picks as well as the conclusions of your analysis.

I assure you that you'll find a lot more people will be willing to help you out when they know you've done your own research rather than gone ahead and expected everyone to give you their research.

That's just my .

EDIT: Also there are topics on ASF which discuss potential and outstanding breakout alerts, so you should refer to those if you're after that sort of information.

EDIT2: I'm sure you didn't intend for your post to come out the way it did. Unfortunately the written word often has the habit of being interpreted in ways other than originally intended


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## vincent191 (9 June 2009)

wild speculative punts are not the theme in this forum. Go to hot copper if you want wild speculation.

OR go and get a broker or subscribe to the many newsletters.


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## nunthewiser (9 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> I'm going to be honest here and say I think it's a little rude and presumptuous to request that people provide you:
> 
> 1) Their recommended stock picks + charts
> 2) Their reasons as to why they picked the stock
> ...





good post



ps can everyone post all finacials and all analysis and all stock picks that are going to rise at least 20% this week as i cant be bothered sharing my picks but i feel its your duty to share yours

and be quick about it


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## JWR (9 June 2009)

I apologise if it seemed rude what I was asking. The reason I ask this is because I wish to learn _why_ a sector/stock will outperform, as this is a learning curve for me. I'm only 17, so don't have much money at all to trade with, therefore I will not be acting on this advice, instead absorbing and hoping to understand it. My theory is that if I could learn from other traders what is likely to outperform in the market in the short term, I will gain valuable insight into picking future trends in similar situations. If any information could be given on what turns the markets that would be greatly appreciated. Individual stock and sector analysis, in my opinion, would greatly help me determine why a market moves in the volatile fashion it does, so any advice would be welcome. Again, I sincerely apologise for any rudeness or cheekiness on my part.

Regards,
JWR


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## Pairs Trader (9 June 2009)

Look for sectors that are outperforming the main index on a 6month and 12month timeframe, then within that sector look for stocks with the biggest % gain over the last 6 and 12 months, then out of that list look for stocks with the lowest PEG values, this method is proven to deliver outperformance when the market is rising, ditto should it go down.


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## JWR (9 June 2009)

Ok, thank you for that analysis. I will be using this strategy. How do you know whether the rally will be sustained though. I've seen the resources/energy sector outperform in the past few months, but am too scared to get in, in case it turns sour. So I am just wondering what type of technical analysis supports stocks/sectors in the short term, and how you tell whether it is a false or sustainable rally.


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## investorpaul (9 June 2009)

JWR said:


> Ok, thank you for that analysis. I will be using this strategy. How do you know whether the rally will be sustained though. I've seen the resources/energy sector outperform in the past few months, but am too scared to get in, in case it turns sour. So I am just wondering what type of technical analysis supports stocks/sectors in the short term, and how you tell whether it is a false or sustainable rally.




Hi JWR,

congrats on wanting to invest/trade in the market, given time and application I hope you can be successful.

A good start is to head over to the beginners thread and read a heap of posts over there, alot of posters on here contribute/share their knowledge there.

Also head to asx.com.au and click on the education tab, there is a heap of info there which will give you a good general understanding on the market


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## Julia (9 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> I'm going to be honest here and say I think it's a little rude and presumptuous to request that people provide you:.....



This was my reaction too, but then I read that JWR is only 17, and I thought, well, how good is it that a kid is showing enough initiative to even think about the market, let alone ask a pretty intelligent question on a forum.

It takes a while to understand that the written word can come across as being more aggressive than was intended, and let's realise too that a 17year old isn't probably going to appreciate the, um, 'niceties' of what it's OK to ask and what isn't.

So JWR, hopefully we'll see you back on here in a few years' time, telling us how much you've learned and how successful you are.

Good luck.


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## JWR (9 June 2009)

I've been paper trading for two years now, so I'm no mug. Started investing small amounts and am down a little, but I basically would appreciate any useful advice of how to predict trends within the market that can give me an edge into profitable short term trades. Any advice would be appreciated so that I could learn why particular sectors outperform the market and how to capitalise on these opportunites.


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## KurwaJegoMac (9 June 2009)

There are quite a few analysis techniques which can help you predict trends. A really basic one is the moving average. Check out this post for an in depth (and heated!) discussion:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15824

Volume, Range, high and low analysis can be found here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14011

If that's too basic and you're after something more complex, a number of posters detail their analysis of the XAO - it could reveal to you a technique you might be interested in:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888

Also there are discussions available on specific techniques such as the elliot wave analysis technique:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6953

These are just some examples to hopefully get you started. There are many, many more techniques you just need to find one that suits your goals and trading styles.

Try searching the forums for short term analysis techniques, then narrowing it down to specific ones you're interested in.


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## beerwm (9 June 2009)

JWR said:


> I've been paper trading for two years now, so I'm no mug. Started investing small amounts and am down a little, but I basically would appreciate any useful advice of how to predict trends within the market that can give me an edge into profitable short term trades. Any advice would be appreciated so that I could learn why particular sectors outperform the market and how to capitalise on these opportunites.




Before you leap into 'finding the best entry' mode.

I think you should read a general book on trading -
you dont seem to be asking the right questions;

adaptive analysis - by nick radge
trade your way to financial freedom - can tharp

are the best two.


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## nomore4s (9 June 2009)

JWR, your questions are not that easy to answer as there a 100s of different analysis techniques, timeframes & markets to trade and entry & exit setups, and then you have money management & trade management to think about.

What you are after is a trading system & plan to help you determine which trades to take & when to take them. Unfortunately that is something that you need to develop for yourself as we all have different ideas, emotional make ups and goals in mind.

There are a number of very experienced traders on this forum with a wealth of knowledge they have been generous enough to share all you need to do is find and study this info. Just search these forums as there are plenty of threads discussing the questions you have asked. If you look at the bottom of the page you will find some similar threads which might be a good place to start.

I think it is great that you have an interest in trading at your age & have started to meld some ideas together to start a trading plan. One thing you will find out is it is a never ending learning process - part of what makes trading interesting imo.


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## JWR (10 June 2009)

No worries, thanks for the help guys. I know that I can learn about all technical indicators, but this will take me years (due to time constraints.) Could anyone reccomend any trading systems that will tell me what to do, but also teach me at the same time. I've been looking at Sharefinder recently, which offers probability trading investment tips. Has anyone had experience with this and could reccomend it? Or is it just another black box?

gotta get back to my school work before my teacher kills me. 

Thanks for the help,
JWR


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## nomore4s (10 June 2009)

One you could look into is Nick Radge and the Chartist.

Info on this thread.

But at your age you have plenty of time to learn - don't be in too much of a rush.


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## awg (10 June 2009)

Hi JWR,

make sure to sign up for Incredible Charts.

The free section allows you to analyse and scan for many criteria EOD

The educational section is really useful.

Big Charts have intra-day ( 20 min delay) charts.

Also, sign up for a trading account, as they have much free fundamental and technical data on site eg Commsec, Etrade


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## johenmo (10 June 2009)

awg said:


> Hi JWR,
> 
> make sure to sign up for Incredible Charts.
> 
> ...




After a while the free ends up being a 16 hour delay on data on IC.  But still OK.

I sat on a sharefinder session - Gary Stone recommends a min of $80,000 to run it effectively.  I find the Chartist suits me and others I know.  Can use it on lesser amounts.

Just beware of commissions of you are actively trading.  On a small account can take you from decent profit to miserable profit or no profit.

Read Van Tharp and Nick's book.


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## JWR (10 June 2009)

No worries, thanks mate. As a whole however, does anyone rate sharefinder, because if I was to team up with my parents and use levergage, I'll have enough to open an account. I like the idea of probability - and with such a stellar performance (as shown on the website) it seems like a great way to learn and make money.


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## investorpaul (10 June 2009)

JWR said:


> No worries, thanks mate. As a whole however, does anyone rate sharefinder, because if I was to team up with my parents and use *levergage*, I'll have enough to open an account. I like the idea of probability - and with such a stellar performance (as shown on the website) it seems like a great way to learn and make money.




 slow down a little. Leverage can wipe out a small account quicker than you can hit refresh if your not careful.

Trade your way to financial freedom is a great book and will teach you about position sizing and risk management, it is a great start now that you have moved from paper money to real money.

Be careful of performance claims on websites, there returns usually mean you have to follow every trade they make and enter and exit exactly when they do, which is highly unlikely to happen. I dont no anything about sharefinder but hopefully others can shed some further light for you.

Definately look at incredible charts as others have mentioned, its great for trying out your charting skills and learning to identify the various patterns you may look to trade and its free which is even better.


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## johenmo (10 June 2009)

investorpaul said:


> :Be careful of performance claims on websites, there returns usually mean you have to follow every trade they make and enter and exit exactly when they do, which is highly unlikely to happen.




This what the performance is usually based on.  You need either deep pockets (to be able to do this) or your position size will be smaller in $ terms, which means commission eats into more.

Leverage can be your friend or destroy you.  Money managment is very important.  I have used the last 6 months to learn about MM and paper trade, trying to incorporate slippage.

*Register in the ASX share game from July 1* - get 50K of money to play with.  Downside is large comm ($30) and can't use stop orders.  BUt it's good enought to show faults.  My first trade was good, next two destroyed the system, and I found I exited too early on my preferred system and missed out on gains, so lost $500 overall.  When I ran a second system at the same time, I made 16% ($8000).  Good learning opportunity.


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## nomore4s (10 June 2009)

Thread on sharefinder here


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## JWR (11 June 2009)

Thanks nomore4s. Have read the post and think it looks a good idea. I know it is risky to use margin loans (especially in this environment) but I believe they manage the risk by setting exit signals if things turn sour. I've played the sharemarket game before three years ago just before the crisis started (ended on around $60k.) 

What is everyone's opinion on the resources sector. Has it gone too hard too fast or does it have more to run...

thanks for the continued support
JWR


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## nomore4s (11 June 2009)

JWR,

Just to be clear on this - I personally don't think you should be looking at something like sharefinder.

The cost and the capital required to run it is somewhat excessive for someone of your age and position imo - especially if you are going to use margin.

The money would be better off used to build a small capital base while you educate yourself and understand what actually makes a profitable trader.

I would also suggest signing up the the Chartist for the 2 week trial and trying that service as you won't need such a large capital base to use Nicks set ups.


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