# Deutchemark Uber Alles? - Euro Rumour



## wayneL (13 May 2010)

There's been a rumour floating about that Germany may be reinstating the Mark.

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/05/new-kitco-dem-page-lets-rumors-about.html

I would be very surprised if true, but there it is.

<add> ZeroHedge is running it too


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## Timmy (13 May 2010)

In the comments section of that Prudent Investor blog post is this:



> Anonymous said...
> 
> Guys, you know that this kitco site is the "old" page prior the EUR introduction?! This can be simply verified by using webarchive.org:
> 
> ...




This would seem to me to be a reasonable explanation.  (But it does show how lazy Kitco are at updating their website graphics )

The link to http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html in the blog post doesn't work (for me, anyway) so haven't been able to check that out.

Good rumour, and I would like it to be true (can't have too many currencies!), but can't see it myself (not by Friday anyways).


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## wayneL (13 May 2010)

Timmy said:


> In the comments section of that Prudent Investor blog post is this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeah I just can't see it at this point in time. 

Though wouldn't be surprised to see the EU unravel at some point in the future.


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## MRC & Co (13 May 2010)

wayneL said:


> Though wouldn't be surprised to see the EU unravel at some point in the future.




Yeh agreed.

This is actually becoming quite funny, from the FT:  _Ralph Atkins, notes that the public opposition by Bundesbank chief Axel Weber to last Sunday’s ECB decision to start buying Eurozone bonds may now have lessened the chanced of Weber succeeding Trichet as next ECB chief.  French President Sarkozy in particular is seen as potentially opposing his appointment having led the call for bold ECB actions last week.  This, Atkins suggest, could improve the chances of the current second favourite for the role, Bank of Italy’s Mario Draghi.  _ 

LOL, the soft Italians are now going to bail out all the PIIGS on the Germans backs, I would be wanting back to the Deusche mark too!  

Germany riots and EUR/USD goes to parity!


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## wayneL (15 May 2010)

More grist for the (rumour) mill.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8CjGqGASv9E&pos=3



> Euro Breakup Talk Increases as Germany Loses Proxy
> 
> SNIP: “You have the great problem of a potential disintegration of the euro,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, 82, said yesterday in London. “The essential element of discipline in economic policy and in fiscal policy that was hoped for” has “so far not been rewarded in some countries.”


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## Timmy (10 June 2010)

Gunna be a long wait for a Euro break up.  
In the meantime, CHF as a proxy for the DEM.

*Meet the new Deutsche Mark*
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/09/256201/meet-the-new-deutsche-mark/


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## Bushman (10 June 2010)

Timmy said:


> Gunna be a long wait for a Euro break up.
> In the meantime, CHF as a proxy for the DEM.
> 
> *Meet the new Deutsche Mark*
> http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/09/256201/meet-the-new-deutsche-mark/




'Twenty per cent of Swiss exports go to Switzerland’s northern neighbor. As Germany’s own exporters benefit from the weakness of the euro globally over the next few years, German demand for Swiss exports will rise. This will boost Switzerland’s trade balance and the value of the franc.'

How much cheese, chocolates and watches can the Germans consume?


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## wayneL (10 June 2010)

According to a few soothsayers, it won't last out the next five years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

I'm crap at time frames, but I reckon the Euro is cactus unless there is European fiscal union (0% chance).


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## tonza (10 June 2010)

Bushman said:


> 'Twenty per cent of Swiss exports go to Switzerland’s northern neighbor. As Germany’s own exporters benefit from the weakness of the euro globally over the next few years, German demand for Swiss exports will rise. This will boost Switzerland’s trade balance and the value of the franc.'
> 
> How much cheese, chocolates and watches can the Germans consume?




I am a bit perplexed by this statement:



> As Germany's own exporters benefit from the weakness of the Euro globally over the next few years,...




This is true. Weak Euro = More affordable for foreign nations to purchase from Germany.



> German demand for Swiss exports will rise.




Weakening Euro  = More expensive for Germany to purchase Swiss exports. Therefore, German demand for Swiss imports will FALL?

I have the feeling that this journalist may have spun some quotes from this Mansoor Mohi-uddin bloke in order to make a story...


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## Timmy (10 June 2010)

A very practical problem for the CHF becoming some sort of proxy for the DEM and therefore some sort of reserve currency is the relatively small size of the Swiss economy and the limited amount of CHF (compared to the USD or EUR) around (although all the intervention by the SNB recently is increasing the supply rapidly )


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## Timmy (9 July 2010)

Euro breakup fans will like this ... hair-raising 

*Legal noose tightens on Europe's monetary union*
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...gal-noose-tightens-on-europes-monetary-union/



> Contrary to general belief, Germany's eurosceptic professors have not abandoned their legal efforts to block the EU rescues for European banks exposed to Greek debt, and since May 7 for banks exposed to debt from Spain, Portugal, and Ireland as well.
> 
> Should they succeed, of course, the eurozone risks disintegration within days, and perhaps hours.




I am not as up-to-date on German constitutional law as I really should be ...  but this does sound scary.


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## UBIQUITOUS (9 July 2010)

Timmy said:


> Euro breakup fans will like this ... hair-raising
> 
> 
> I am not as up-to-date on German constitutional law as I really should be ...  but this does sound scary.




Not really hair-raising at all, when you consider who's article it is: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

I do like reading his views for bear food, but also recognise that he is the Dr Doom of English journalism. If he has nothing good to say, he won't say it at all.


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## Timmy (9 July 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Not really hair-raising at all, when you consider who's article it is: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
> 
> I do like reading his views for bear food, but also recognise that he is the Dr Doom of English journalism. If he has nothing good to say, he won't say it at all.




I agree he is a bear but nevertheless what do you think of his points?  Actually that's probably not a fair question, I have to admit to being just a bystander on this, German constitutional law and all.  Be interesting to see if a less bearish commentator than Ambrose-Evans had a different take.  Or just wait for the decision.


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## Timmy (22 July 2010)

Germany and France getting politically & fiscally closer?



> Germany and France made the first step today towards the coordination of their tax policies today, as German Finance Minister Wolfgang SchÃ¤uble took part in the French Cabinet meeting
> ...
> This comes after the French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde was invited to the German Council of Ministers in March 2010.




*It Begins: France and Germany Move Towards Unified Fiscal System*
http://www.businessinsider.com/fran...aign=Feed:+businessinsider+(Business+Insider)

(Hint to Sarkozy - don't go too far and drop Carla for Angela.  This would catapult you ahead of Charlie as biggest tosser of all time).


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## Timmy (1 September 2011)

Timmy said:


> *Legal noose tightens on Europe's monetary union*
> http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...gal-noose-tightens-on-europes-monetary-union/




Decision expected Sept. 7:



> (Reuters) – Germany's top court will give its verdict early next month on whether the government broke the law with last year's bailouts of debt-stricken euro zone countries ”” a ruling which could limit Berlin's room to manage the region's debt crisis.
> The Karlsruhe-based Federal Constitutional Court will announce its verdict on September 7 at 4 a.m. EDT, it said in a statement on Tuesday.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/23/us-germany-court-eurozone-idUSTRE77M1RY20110823

Another potential headline bomb out of Europe.


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## Bushman (14 September 2011)

Euro is starting to look decidedly wobbly now. Greece is heading into depression territory, German consitutional bank has ruled that further bail-out are unconstitutional, ECB is chaos etc. 

Amazingly, there is now stories that the BRICs migh bail out the PIIGS sans the G. 

Meanwhile the bankers of Europe are wishing that they had not dipped their troughs in all that sovereign liquidity. Moodie's has just downgraded SocGen to ram this home. 

Feels very GFC'ish this now and the Euro needs to be restructured ...  

Damn Europeans could not turn around a Mini Minor in a airport hanger. At least we know the drill this time around. Duch & cover, duck & cover ...


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