# Tech/a vs. CanOz - Futures Trading Competition



## CanOz (24 December 2013)

Tech and I have agreed to have a competition involving trading. 

Here's what we're looking at for a draft of the rules:

-Trade whatever you want, whatever time frame you want as long as its spelled out ahead of time.
-Risk per trade should be 2% or less. 
-25k max. trading capital
-Results of closed P/L to be posted weekly, closed trades may be posted with charts as they're closed.
-Results to be verified by Joe or nominated moderator at the end of the competition.

Start date - January 6th to be agreed to by Tech/A

If for some reason a participant must leave the competition the remaining competitor will win by forfeit.

Prize: We haven't even discussed prize money or anything actually, personally i would prefer the right to claim the position as winning trader, that's good enough for me.


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## tech/a (24 December 2013)

Can Oz has indicated he will be trading spreads
From what I know of this s a powerful and chosen
Futures trading method by many successful futures traders.

Something I personally am very interested in seeing how it works.

I only trade directional long or short so that will be
My chosen method
FTSE and possibly DAX 

So I'm presuming statements to Joe for verification.
I'd like to see the Winner being 
(1) best return over x period ---- what is that Can
(2) best R/R.


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## CanOz (24 December 2013)

> So I'm presuming statements to Joe for verification.
> I'd like to see the Winner being
> (1) *best return over x period* ---- what is that Can
> (2) best R/R.




Lets try 3 months...I want to say 6 but i don't know if I can commit to that at the moment...


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## tech/a (24 December 2013)

CanOz said:


> Lets try 3 months...I want to say 6 but i don't know if I can commit to that at the moment...




Ok
I'll wait to week 11 make one trade and skate straight past you!
Or I could do nothing---
No seriously look forward to it.


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## Assasin (24 December 2013)

This is brilliant!

Thanks guys.


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## CanOz (24 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> Ok
> I'll wait to week 11 make one trade and skate straight past you!
> Or I could do nothing---
> No seriously look forward to it.




Well this is my first January trading spreads so i really have no idea how active I'll be at all...but from history its one or two trades per week, so plenty boring here...


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## CanOz (24 December 2013)

For seasonal trends in January i will be using SeasonAlgo to search for opportunities.....From time to time i also use Moore Research as well. I also know Jay Richards from JustSpreads quite well now and he does provide me with some educational material regarding spreads and thanks to Nick Radge for introducing us.

I also read Joe Ross's book on Trading Spreads and Seasonals... So this is my research and it formed the basic of my education into spreads.

There are approximately 10 opportunities for seasonal spreads in January based on historical data. We won't take every trade, in fact we'll take very few that meet our criteria...


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## tech/a (24 December 2013)

CanOz said:


> For seasonal trends in January i will be using SeasonAlgo to search for opportunities.....From time to time i also use Moore Research as well. I also know Jay Richards from JustSpreads quite well now and he does provide me with some educational material regarding spreads and thanks to Nick Radge for introducing us.
> 
> I also read Joe Ross's book on Trading Spreads and Seasonals... So this is my research and it formed the basic of my education into spreads.
> 
> There are approximately 10 opportunities for seasonal spreads in January based on historical data. We won't take every trade, in fact we'll take very few that meet our criteria...




Can you give a brief overview of how these trades work.
What the philosophy is. The objective.


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## beachlife (24 December 2013)

$25k account, max risk 2% ($500).  Going to be interesting to see how you do that with futures, very tight stops I guess.

Will be interesting to see how you compare with these guys.

http://www.worldcupchampionships.com/live-stats-3

Looking forward to watching this one.


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## tech/a (24 December 2013)

beachlife said:


> $25k account, max risk 2% ($500).  Going to be interesting to see how you do that with futures, very tight stops I guess.
> 
> Will be interesting to see how you compare with these guys.
> 
> ...




$500 no problem that's about 40 ticks a trade on one contract.
15 is massive for me and a move to B/E as quick practical will
See my average stop well below 2% more like < 1 %

What you want to invite Larry Williams along?
Who gives a crap about anyone else.

We aren't out to be the best on the planet.


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## CanOz (24 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> Can you give a brief overview of how these trades work.
> What the philosophy is. The objective.




When you trade a spread you're going long one instrument and short another, some are calendar spreads in agricultural commodities. These spreads are affected by seasonal changes in supply and demand and therefore they tend to do the same thing on a regular basis, i.e. start new trends at the same time of the year. So we first have to find out which spreads tend to trend at the current point in time + or - a couple of weeks. We then need to monitor the spreads for a chance to enter in the direction of the seasonal trend. This entry would be similar to any technical entry that you may use for trading....breakouts, fades etc...



> $25k account, max risk 2% ($500). Going to be interesting to see how you do that with futures, very tight stops I guess.




Should be ok for me, as most of my stops are money stops anyway...The spread gives you plenty of room, more so than outright directionals.


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## minwa (24 December 2013)

Is this competition open to other people ? Not going to open another account so going to be more than $25k but everything can be compared equally ?

Happy to pool for prize money.


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## tech/a (24 December 2013)

No problems from me.


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## CanOz (24 December 2013)

I have no issues with anyone else joining provided that:

1. Its futures only
2. Position sizing is according to a 25k account
3. Statements are sent to ASF to verify


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## cynic (24 December 2013)

tech/a said:


> ...
> 
> What you want to invite Larry Williams along?
> Who gives a crap about anyone else.
> ...




Well the year 1987 did provide exceptional opportunities for savvy derivatives traders, particularly those that recognised the early warning signs and shorted the donkey out of that market crash!


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## beachlife (25 December 2013)

It would seem that way but IIRC he made his $1m by March, the account was up to $2m a while later, and finished back at $1m by Dec.  Crash wasnt until Oct.  He also says it was extreme risk trading for the sake of the comp, not his normal style.  Some of the other winners have also traded their accounts with more risk than normal just because it's a comp.

CMC used to have comps also, with $100k prize money.  There were some extreme profits back then too.  It wont let me post the link but the winner in 2007 made 441% in 9 weeks.  All of the top 10 were over 140%.  I remember that year well.  I blew my comp account up in a couple of weeks, but even so wasnt last, a couple of others blew up more.

I wonder if we will see some extreme risk taking in this comp.


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## minwa (25 December 2013)

beachlife said:


> I wonder if we will see some extreme risk taking in this comp.




I am assuming this is going to be $25k live money ? Will be very different to demo trading going for highest % gain.


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## CanOz (25 December 2013)

I'm very risk averse, that's why i like spreads...I don't really care if i win, but keen to see how it turns out none the less.

Tech and I will be trading live accounts for this.

If anyone wants to take me on in a sim account i'll do outrights...no worries!

That might be fun too...for another day.


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## CanOz (26 December 2013)

Tech, I'd like to raise the capital requirement to 35,000 AUD if its ok with you? After i did a little bit more research i found a couple of instances where i would have been over my 2% stop with a 25k account. So just to be on the safe side, i should use a little more capital.

Also, regarding the start date, I should be right to go next week as i scheduled all the transfers to finish by the 29th. So if you agree we can start anytime from the 29th...?

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Valued (26 December 2013)

CanOz said:


> Tech, I'd like to raise the capital requirement to 35,000 AUD if its ok with you? After i did a little bit more research i found a couple of instances where i would have been over my 2% stop with a 25k account. So just to be on the safe side, i should use a little more capital.
> 
> Also, regarding the start date, I should be right to go next week as i scheduled all the transfers to finish by the 29th. So if you agree we can start anytime from the 29th...?
> 
> ...




Perhaps you should start after the new years binge drinking contest (the true pissing contest). Us little people who only trade on the ASX will be drunk and the markets will be closed! Too drunk to read what some futures market is doing somewhere else


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## CanOz (26 December 2013)

Valued said:


> Perhaps you should start after the new years binge drinking contest (the true pissing contest). Us little people who only trade on the ASX will be drunk and the markets will be closed! Too drunk to read what some futures market is doing somewhere else




Enjoy...Don't drink and drive!


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## notting (26 December 2013)

Play the game not the player, that's my tip. 
May the best man win.


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## pavilion103 (26 December 2013)

Oh wow. Interesting. 

Tempted to throw my hand up, but might leave this to the big guns to shoot it out


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## ThingyMajiggy (26 December 2013)

Winner has to take on TH trading the Seng


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## tech/a (26 December 2013)

CanOz said:


> Tech, I'd like to raise the capital requirement to 35,000 AUD if its ok with you? After i did a little bit more research i found a couple of instances where i would have been over my 2% stop with a 25k account. So just to be on the safe side, i should use a little more capital.
> 
> Also, regarding the start date, I should be right to go next week as i scheduled all the transfers to finish by the 29th. So if you agree we can start anytime from the 29th...?
> 
> ...




$35 k ok

I have an account with $34 now so fine.
I wont be starting until the week of the 6 TH 
Not fussed how long 
3 mths as a start or finish is fine.


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## kid hustlr (26 December 2013)

Looks very interesting. lol @ bringing Larry Williams in reminds me of that guy on the bulls + bears thing I posted a few weeks back.

Especially interested in how you go about the calendar spreads Can I do a lot of intra day spreading stuff myself (inter-commodity not calendar) so will be nice to see a different point of view.

fwiw I hope there's no 'shot taking' in this comp for the sake of winning the comp. I'm just interested to hear how you guys are going about it on a day to day basis.

Hopefully there's some volatility over the next few months to make this interesting!


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## snsdmonkey (2 January 2014)

Good luck guys, should be interesting.


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## CanOz (2 January 2014)

Four of the trades are shaping up nicely but copper is not cooperating with the seasonal trend YET.


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## kid hustlr (2 January 2014)

Can, when you have the note there saying ' Coffee - sell from Jan 5 +/- 10'

I assume that means you are looking to sell the spread (ie sell the front buy the back) any point from now up until the 15th? Am I reading that correctly?


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## CanOz (2 January 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> Can, when you have the note there saying ' Coffee - sell from Jan 5 +/- 10'
> 
> I assume that means you are looking to sell the spread (ie sell the front buy the back) any point from now up until the 15th? Am I reading that correctly?




Yeah, that's it.


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## CanOz (6 January 2014)

Starting account balance.


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## pavilion103 (6 January 2014)

GL fellas.

Will there be regular updates?


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## tech/a (6 January 2014)

Only the winning trades--!!!!


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## CanOz (6 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> GL fellas.
> 
> Will there be regular updates?




Its really up to the individual but we agreed on weekly equity updates.

Then the final equity and trades to be verified by Joe or a mod.


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## pavilion103 (6 January 2014)

Sounds good!


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## skc (6 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Its really up to the individual but we agreed on weekly equity updates.
> 
> Then the final equity and trades to be verified by Joe or a mod.




How do you police "max 2% risk" rule?

Broker statements are not going to show where your stop was when you entered the trade. Do you simply look at realised loss (which would be difficult for spreads as you can have a loss >> $500 on one leg which the other leg is well in profit)?

Or may be it doesn't really matter?


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## tech/a (6 January 2014)

I'm not fussed if this limit is lifted.
If I get over 2% Ill be sticking my head in a bucket!


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## CanOz (6 January 2014)

Regarding risk ... thats why i put it this way 







> -Risk per trade _*should*_ be 2% or less.




I'll do my best to manage my risk within the limits, but i cannot guarantee i won't go a little over due to the nature of spread trade management.

Its in my interest to manage the risk.


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## pavilion103 (6 January 2014)

Don't know why there has to be a limit.

It's not like anyone is going to just put $35k on red or black to win the comp haha


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## CanOz (6 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Don't know why there has to be a limit.
> 
> It's not like anyone is going to just put $35k on red or black to win the comp haha




Yeah exactly, but it is good to have a target for how much to risk on each trade, as you know it makes up part of the math that will determine whether the trade management together with the edge is profitable. 

Its good for newbie's to realize as well that we're trying to control our risk, as we cannot control the reward.

In most cases i won't be using hard stops, only a level on the spread chart. So its hard to place risk management stops on the individual legs. On some contracts a protective can be used...


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## CanOz (6 January 2014)

Charting spreads can be a pain in the pigu:arsch: at times:bad:. I went to chart an energy spread that i want to use as my first trade and IB is not charting the spread correctly. 

Thankfully i have two other options, NinjaTrader and Amibroker. 

I had TradingCoders code me up a custom indicator to chart spreads in NT. Then i had Nick's Amibroker coding code me up another spread indicator for Amibroker. 

AMP nor Kinetic EOD is providing data for this spread so i now need to rely on Amibroker.

While these are handy solutions there is not allot for the retail trader in terms of charting options for spread trading.


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## tech/a (6 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Starting account balance.




Balance


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## tech/a (6 January 2014)

Initial position.

Wont report on all but--
Strong resistance at around 6690-6700

First target 6670 ish.


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## CanOz (6 January 2014)

shoot Rudy, the European markets are thin!


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## tech/a (6 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> shoot Rudy, the European markets are thin!




Yeh I moved it with 1
Still open might ride this a while if it behaves.
Break below 6660 good for me.
Below 6643 and we are out of here it----- will have topped.
My current thinking after Xmas.
Not that brilliant really!
Stop at B/E.
Up to watch some TV.


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## nulla nulla (7 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Four of the trades are shaping up nicely but copper is not cooperating with the seasonal trend YET.




Are these simulated trades (as per header bar on charts) or real time?


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## tech/a (7 January 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> Are these simulated trades (as per header bar on charts) or real time?




All real.--well mine are.
Pretty sure Canz are also

Last night was a "'No Gainer"
Stopped at B/E


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## CanOz (7 January 2014)

nulla nulla said:


> Are these simulated trades (as per header bar on charts) or real time?




Sometimes in the morning I'll sim trade the Hang Seng, but I use the same settings file for both live and paper trade on IB. Demo accounts on IB start with DU, live accounts with U.

We have one live trade on at the moment, it's a heating oil spread and I'm taking some heat...

You've got a nice bracket to work with on the FTSE tech, I think it's just a matter of time before you hitch a ride on a trend day...


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## tech/a (7 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Sometimes in the morning I'll sim trade the Hang Seng, but I use the same settings file for both live and paper trade on IB. Demo accounts on IB start with DU, live accounts with U.
> 
> We have one live trade on at the moment, it's a heating oil spread and I'm taking some heat...
> 
> You've got a nice bracket to work with on the FTSE tech, I think it's just a matter of time before you hitch a ride on a trend day...




Yeh its an interesting dilemma.

Best trade 2 or more contracts.
One to stick and one to profit take.


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

Well after taking some heat on my HO spread (pun intended), its come good for the first time. Because i've hit a snag in my charting capability it makes looking at the real time info more difficult. I really need to chat with someone at IB about this but I'm procrastinating on that for obvious reasons...

Normally supply and demand in the actual commodity leads to the spread trending at certain times of year. I'm a little concerned how this years harsh start to winter in the largest heating oil market in the world will affect the trend versus historical behavior. Should be interesting but no doubt its already priced in...

Heres a shot of both legs of the spread...


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## peter2 (8 January 2014)

As I'm curious to see the chart of the spread I found this resource at britefutures.com.

I assume you entered this spread recently (Jan14) based on the seasonal stats rather than the chart pattern. A good swing started in Sept13. Hope it breaks up from the current descending triangle pattern for you.


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## beachlife (8 January 2014)

How does spread trading work?  

What do you want it to do, go up, go down, go side ways or just move in any direction at different rates?


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

For the record i just liquidated my HO spread for a tiny profit, due to confusion in IBs definition of a spread....

Look at this ... lol...Its the wrong way around. I was actually correct in selling the front month and buying the back month. But IB is telling me that to sell this spread i must buy the front month and sell the back month...

I need to clear this up, its fine to do it manually as i did to enter, but to chart the spreads i need to use the combinations...from the quote screen. The charts are upside down when i do it this way.


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## peter2 (8 January 2014)

Canoz is short the current (March14) contract and long the Jun14 contract so he wants the Jun contract to go up more (or go down less) than the March contract. 

You can understand why Canoz is frustrated that he can't get his spread charted easily. It's much easier to understand when it is visual. 

If I've plotted his spread correctly Canoz wanted(*) this spread to go up. [* closed for small profit due to glitch ]

The elegance of trading spreads like this is that the exchange will significantly reduce the margin required for the spread as the price volatility is massively reduced (hence a larger "bang for buck").


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## peter2 (8 January 2014)

The IB orders seems correct to me Canoz if you use option terminology buy to open your spread and sell to close your spread. I can't help you with the charting though.


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

I can't believe I've managed to catch TWS support out this bad! They're thoroughly stumped but at least I've figured out why i couldn't plot the spread...


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## kid hustlr (8 January 2014)

Absurd they don't know what a calendar spread is.


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

Ahh, we seem to have found the problem with the spreads. It seems you need to combine them manually "leg by leg" in TWS. You'll know you have the right combo because the+ or - sign in front of the contract month.

Eg: -mar 14 + jun 14 is the one i'm after.

I've also managed to get the spread to chart properly in IB...

By the way i wanted to be short the spread so as above -mar14 + jun14. I've re-entered this spread using the TWS combination function this time. As of yet i have not been filled.


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

Here's a Brent spread we're looking to enter tonight, MOO

The current spread on top, the seasonal trend to follow on the bottom chart...


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## sails (8 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Ahh, we seem to have found the problem with the spreads. It seems you need to combine them manually "leg by leg" in TWS. You'll know you have the right combo because the+ or - sign in front of the contract month.
> 
> Eg: -mar 14 + jun 14 is the one i'm after.
> 
> ...




Canoz, I got into trouble with an option calendar spread with IB some years ago now.  I learnt from that rather painful lesson that it pays to set the spread up as a long spread - and then sell it to create a short position.  Otherwise it gets very confusing!  I think it makes no difference whether it's options or futures when setting up a spread in IB.

Hope that helps!


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

sails said:


> Canoz, I got into trouble with an option calendar spread with IB some years ago now.  I learnt from that rather painful lesson that it pays to set the spread up as a long spread - and then sell it to create a short position.  Otherwise it gets very confusing!  I think it makes no difference whether it's options or futures when setting up a spread in IB.
> 
> Hope that helps!




Yes! That's what i found as well Sails, thanks for confirming it I think thats where IB is a little tricky.

Thankfully i have a reasonably good knowledge of the futures contracts, otherwise to have all that to contend with on top of the platform would be too much. Despite me testing these on the sim i still found issues when i went to chart the spreads. To enter them manually presented no problems though...


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## sails (8 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Yes! That's what i found as well Sails, thanks for confirming it I think that where IB is a little tricky.
> 
> Thankfully i have a reasonably good knowledge of the futures contracts, otherwise to have all that to contend with on top of the platform would be too much. Despite me testing these on the sim i still found issues when i went to chart the spreads. To enter them manually presented no problems though...




Yeah it is tricky until you understand how the  IB platform works.  And I was no novice at option spread trading when I was caught!


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

Wow, for combos, like this one i can even use the chart trader...one leg as a limit, the next as a market order.


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

This is one that actually works as a combo, its ZW Mar 14 - KE Sep 14, sell +-10 days from the 3rd of Jan...looks quite ripe to me...


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

Here's what we have pending for this evening...

A re-entry on our HO spread, a Brent trade, and a Wheat trade.


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## tech/a (8 January 2014)

FTSE heading toward Resistance again.
Heading to Dinner in a minute
Will see if anything interesting when I return.

Don't want to set an order and hope!
(I know your not doing that Can!)


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## pavilion103 (8 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> FTSE heading toward Resistance again. Heading to Dinner in a minute Will see if anything interesting when I return.  Don't want to set an order and hope! (I know your not doing that Can!)




Was only able to get on for 30 mins before heading out. 
Was tempted to get in on open with a 20 point stop to the highest recent high. I didn't.

Looks like it's pushing up again with a good chance maybe to short near highs once more. Looks ominous IMO.


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## tech/a (8 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Was only able to get on for 30 mins before heading out.
> Was tempted to get in on open with a 20 point stop to the highest recent high. I didn't.
> 
> Looks like it's pushing up again with a good chance maybe to short near highs once more. Looks ominous IMO.




Missed it --


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## CanOz (8 January 2014)

FTSE setting up a long pattern? big drop then grind down until enuf shorts are trapped...


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## tech/a (8 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> FTSE setting up a long pattern? big drop then grind down until enuf shorts are trapped...




If I'd have got on early I would stay short.
I think it will continue down with weakness
From the US 
But risk is to high now.


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## pavilion103 (8 January 2014)

Good opportunity was there. A very good place to have had a crack.

There was a two bar reversal low at 6670 (bottom of a channel and near a previous low). Maybe a bit if a push up now?

I'll post any other thoughts in the futures thread


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## CanOz (9 January 2014)

peter2 said:


> As I'm curious to see the chart of the spread I found this resource at britefutures.com.
> 
> I assume you entered this spread recently (Jan14) based on the seasonal stats rather than the chart pattern. A good swing started in Sept13. Hope it breaks up from the current descending triangle pattern for you.
> 
> View attachment 56202





Thanks Peter, that site will come in handy to double chech my charts from time to time....the spread is a bear spread.

@beachlife - spread trading is directional, so yes we're looking for the price difference to continue in a direction...a direction that due to seasonal supply and demand changes, usually repeats itself.


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## CanOz (9 January 2014)

We ended up having some favorable closes in two of the three spreads. The Brent bull spread and the Bear wheat spread are in profit after their first close.

The HO bear spread is still behind a little.

I've got some time today to re-do the video on IB spreads. I'll post a good webinar too from YT on Spread trading.

We've also got a new spread, a bull copper spread to look at for an entry this evening...


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## beachlife (9 January 2014)

I get how spreads work with options, but I dont get it with futures.  How do  you position size to your 2% risk without a delta for the various contracts?  Or is some sort of rate of change data available somewhere?


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## CanOz (9 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> I get how spreads work with options, but I dont get it with futures.  How do  you position size to your 2% risk without a delta for the various contracts?  Or is some sort of rate of change data available somewhere?




That's a good question and its tricky and a bit ambiguous. Generally you need to get a feel for this using sim, but you can calculate an approximate point value for the spread as you know the point value of the contracts, the tick values are the same, see here. I use a money stop and generally in my experience most of my spreads fall into the 1% risk given my account size. I could trade 2 contracts on most trades and still be within my 2% risk rule. By taking trades that are close to support and resistance and provide a good risk to reward profile you'll certainly know when you are wrong by using using a money stop...

These things generally move pretty slow, so you'll have time to assess the risk as it moves as well. When it comes to the money stops Jay Richards of JustSpreads has been very helpful in determining the money stop to use.

I always try and err on the conservative side when it comes to risk too, taking less than 2% where i can...


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## skc (9 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> When it comes to the money stops Jay Richards of JustSpreads has been very helpful in determining the money stop to use.




Thanks for sharing this site. Looks like it has plenty of useful materials.


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## tech/a (9 January 2014)

Set bracket orders and had tea.
returned to see I had incorrectly 
set the Limit Buy and stop side of the bracket
No damage but missed a good move! (I was short)


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## CanOz (10 January 2014)

Well we've got good news and bad news on the spreads today. The good news is that our HO bear spread has come good and our Wheat bear spread has totally broken through support. The bad new is that our Brent bull spread is looking bearish now instead of bullish.

I plan to exit the Brent spread this evening and await another entry...


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## CanOz (10 January 2014)

One for the watchlist on the currencies....


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## peter2 (10 January 2014)

I don't know how you can use those "hairy caterpillar" charts. To my inexperienced eye they indicate the spreads to avoid as the market participants all agree on the costs of carry between contracts and there is no real change in supply/demand. 

Not sure about seasonal patterns in currencies. They might occur at EOFY's as large companies repatriate their P&L to their base currencies. I'm aware of different EOFY's between US, Aust(UK) and Japan. 

As for that GBPCAD chart. I'd call that an UP-trend that has just broken higher once more. The GBP is currently quite strong and the CAD has weakened noticeably in the last few days. Hence the move in this pair. However your 5y,15y seasonal averages are compelling and I'll be watching.


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## tech/a (10 January 2014)

Nothing out of the box
Long FTSE 6660


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## Caveroute (10 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Nothing out of the box
> Long FTSE 6660
> 
> View attachment 56245




Nice one, that trade ticked all the boxes and some on the  on the 150 tick chart.


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## tech/a (10 January 2014)

Closed on a trailing stop.
Finished the week with a small profit!




Not a weeks wages but not bad for a couple of hrs.


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## Caveroute (10 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Closed on a trailing stop.
> Finished the week with a small profit!
> 
> View attachment 56246
> ...




Tech, what's your trailing stop strategy ?

No obvious exit point at 6681.5, that I can see.


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## kid hustlr (10 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Closed on a trailing stop.
> Finished the week with a small profit!
> 
> View attachment 56246
> ...




Buying the low aint bad!!


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## cynic (10 January 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> Buying the low aint bad!!




Yes, but it does make one feel a little sorry for the poor devil that sold at that point!

(Fortunately it wasn't me this time around!)


----------



## tech/a (10 January 2014)

Caveroute said:


> Tech, what's your trailing stop strategy ?
> 
> No obvious exit point at 6681.5, that I can see.




Low of the 9 min bar 
6682
I had people over and couldn't watch it.
Not ideal.


----------



## CanOz (13 January 2014)

Well, not the start i wanted.

Two trades, two losses.


----------



## tech/a (13 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Well, not the start i wanted.
> 
> Two trades, two losses.




It happens!
Cant say anything stellar here either.
Battle on next 1000 trades!


----------



## CanOz (13 January 2014)

Dax, Eurostoxx spread anyone?

...ratios can be 6 to 1, 5 to 2, or even 8 to 1 (the most conservative).


----------



## beachlife (14 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Well, not the start i wanted.
> 
> Two trades, two losses.




Is that because you got the direction wrong, or because the spread didnt behave, or a bit of both?


----------



## tech/a (14 January 2014)

One of the advantages of working stupid early hrs.




Actually had an order on Overnight with a short at 6720
but it never got there.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (14 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Dax, Eurostoxx spread anyone?
> 
> ...ratios can be 6 to 1, 5 to 2, or even 8 to 1 (the most conservative).




Now that's a crazy one, used to trade that a bit at Propex. Will want to get your timing spot on with the Dax, if you're legging in individually, that thing is nuts.


----------



## CanOz (14 January 2014)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Now that's a crazy one, used to trade that a bit at Propex. Will want to get your timing spot on with the Dax, if you're legging in individually, that thing is nuts.




Yeah i can imagine. Maybe if you took a the Dax leg whiles its trading in value, slow and choppy consistent trade.

I'm going to start trading it with 8 to 1 on sim as position trades. I'm not game to take it live just yet.


----------



## minwa (14 January 2014)

First week results. Won't be officialy entering the competition as I am not trading futures and my capital not within required range. As long as we all make some money or learn something all good. Still post up results for interest sake. Will send full statement to admin or mod when its finished.


----------



## tech/a (14 January 2014)

Can

You'll be happy to know I gave back all profits and now 
have a small loss!

Next 1000----


----------



## CanOz (14 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Can
> 
> You'll be happy to know I gave back all profits and now
> have a small loss!
> ...




Well i can't say that I'm happy about Tech...but i know the feeling.


----------



## tech/a (14 January 2014)

52c in the Warehouse at work today.
Brain meltdown!
That's damned hot.


----------



## Trembling Hand (15 January 2014)

Can you may be interested in this,

http://pages.cmegroup.com/webinar-2014-january-practitioners-guide-to-riding-the-yield-curve.html


----------



## tech/a (15 January 2014)

Long Dax.


----------



## tech/a (15 January 2014)

After having my long stuck long due to first my limit stop not activating and secondly my Market order not filling instantly as it should---rang the US desk and they closed out for me.

Still a better night and one where I did manage a weeks (average wage in a trade) which should have taken 1 hr not 1.5!

*Click to expand*


----------



## CanOz (15 January 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Can you may be interested in this,
> 
> http://pages.cmegroup.com/webinar-2014-january-practitioners-guide-to-riding-the-yield-curve.html





Thanks TH!

Nice trade Tech, was that news or a big stop run?


----------



## tech/a (15 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Thanks TH!
> 
> Nice trade Tech, was that news or a big stop run?




Luck mate!
The above chart is a 9 min chart.
I find that periodicy cuts out most noise.


----------



## CanOz (17 January 2014)

Not much happening on my spreads....heating oil has gone against me a little bit, wheat is ok...

HO needs to move back down soon or i'll have to bail. I'm still within my risk though.


----------



## pavilion103 (17 January 2014)

Do we get account updates at the end if this week?


----------



## CanOz (17 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Do we get account updates at the end if this week?





Well we have been yeah. I get my statement on Saturday so i'll try and update on Sunday or Monday by the latest.


----------



## tech/a (17 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Well we have been yeah. I get my statement on Saturday so i'll try and update on Sunday or Monday by the latest.




Not that hard for me I've only had one trade this week
+â‚¬984


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (17 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Not that hard for me I've only had one trade this week
> +â‚¬984




How many contracts tech? 

We should run a tally of total acc balance at the end of each week too.


----------



## CanOz (17 January 2014)

peter2 said:


> I don't know how you can use those "hairy caterpillar" charts. To my inexperienced eye they indicate the spreads to avoid as the market participants all agree on the costs of carry between contracts and there is no real change in supply/demand.




Here are two different looking charts for the same spread. One is eSignal and its only RTH. The other is IB and its just ETH. I can't seem to get IB to plot only RTH with some contracts...



> Is that because you got the direction wrong, or because the spread didnt behave, or a bit of both?




@ Beachlife....The Brent spread i bought support, then it broke. So yes, directional bet gone wrong. One was an exit because i thought i had the wrong spread, turns out it was the right one.


----------



## tech/a (17 January 2014)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How many contracts tech?
> 
> We should run a tally of total acc balance at the end of each week too.




One

Gave back a couple of hundred just now.
Trading range! I'm not setup for it---dumb lesson learnt
Frankly I don't really care when totals are given
It's the end result that's important.
One good trade can be the difference.
Enjoying the challenge.
I wanna win!


----------



## tech/a (18 January 2014)

As I haven't converted back to base currency
I find this easiest to track.
Balance end of this week.

*Click to expand*


----------



## minwa (19 January 2014)

Week 1 + Week 2


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (19 January 2014)

minwa said:


> Week 1 + Week 2




What are you trading minwa? So reading that you've made around 10K yeah?


----------



## tech/a (19 January 2014)

minwa said:


> Week 1 + Week 2




Aren't you the same guy who photo bombed Man U


----------



## minwa (19 January 2014)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What are you trading minwa? So reading that you've made around 10K yeah?




Options on equities. In net value, yes increased around 10k. Pretty strong start, don't expect it to continue.

tech - do you mean Manchester United ? Don't think it was me got no interest in football.


----------



## tech/a (20 January 2014)

10k on 34k is around 30%
what am I missing


----------



## pavilion103 (20 January 2014)

Looks like its on about $228,700


----------



## tech/a (20 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Looks like its on about $228,700




Presuming that's the contract value and the 10K is against the margin just like everyone else
10K/34k = 30%


----------



## skc (20 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Presuming that's the contract value and the 10K is against the margin just like everyone else
> 10K/34k = 30%




Pretty sure Minwa's capital is $228k as per Pav's post.



minwa said:


> First week results. *Won't be officialy entering the competition as I am not trading futures and my capital not within required range. *




BTW good job so far Minwa.


----------



## CanOz (20 January 2014)

Account balance. Four trades, three losses and one still open. The HO trade was closed Friday night at a loss at over my 2% risk limit.


----------



## CanOz (23 January 2014)

A little update on my activity this week. I've been down with the flu but still managed to get into one currency trade.

The first charts are of the CAD/JPY spread that is due for a seasonal bounce. I reluctantly entered this spread, as did a few others i know, around 9491 on a pullback after a channel break out. It looked weak all night and into the next day. Yesterday i exited with a small loss ($200). I checked this morning only to realize that it broke bad right after i exited. I wasn't comfortable with this trade as it looked like a bear flag was forming. Not being that experienced with spreads i wasn't sure whether to discount this or not...My instincts this time were correct. It could have been worse as the trade had a large money stop. This pair will still be on the watch list for a later entry...

The last chart is of the Wheat spread, the only winning trade so far, its still in open profit of around $600. Its getting close to its target and seasonal exit.

I've also been practicing with Index spreads. Mostly the HSI_HHI spread, trading it 1:1. The HHI has been outperforming the HSI lately, since the liquidity injection, so I've been trying to sell pullbacks. Yesterday was a nice trend on that spread, will post a chart later. Posting charts has become a pain again as ASF is now blocked in China and i need to use the VPN, which is not validated on my trading PC yet...

I have some regrets on the HO spread and i didn't manage that trade as closely as i should have. I have setup my platform enabling me to monitor the P/L for the overall position, whereas it was setup to monitor only the daily P/L. This isn't the first time I've made that mistake, but it will now be the last time.

Incidentally the Brent spread has broke out, so we'll look for an entry there soon again on a pullback.

I've taken a free trial of eSignal, the only platform other than CQG that charts spreads quite well. I'm really impressed with it. I used an 'on - demand' data feed thats 15 min delayed. This works well with the IB platform for RT.


----------



## peter2 (23 January 2014)

Thanks for the update Canoz. You've had a rocky start with these seasonal spreads. The 5y,15y patterns look compelling but the markets are not complying, yet. You must have a watch list as long as your arm.  (btw, good exit on the CADJPY trade)

Your experience so far has been interesting as from what I've read trading spreads is supposed to be a safer and a more conservative way to trade. I hope the seasonal patterns kick into gear for you soon (maybe at the new lunar year).

LOL. This message appeared when I went to post my sympathetic and supporting reply to Canoz.




Edit: Joe must be trialling his new BS detector.


----------



## CanOz (23 January 2014)

peter2 said:


> Thanks for the update Canoz. You've had a rocky start with these seasonal spreads. The 5y,15y patterns look compelling but the markets are not complying, yet. You must have a watch list as long as your arm.  (btw, good exit on the CADJPY trade)
> 
> Your experience so far has been interesting as from what I've read trading spreads is supposed to be a safer and a more conservative way to trade. I hope the seasonal patterns kick into gear for you soon (maybe at the new lunar year).
> 
> ...




Thanks Peter for the ahhh sincere reply

I've put myself out there trading this strategy and its a learning in progress thing for me. I traded it for a while on IBs sim to get familiar with it but obviously in RT its somewhat more challenging. Most of the losses have been mistakes, which i need to be prepared to take, but quick to learn from. 

I do have a watch list that has about 10 or 12 spreads, mostly generated from SeasonAlgo's recommendations. I do look at Jay's (JustSpreads) and Joe Ross's recommendations as well, but they're all on SeasonAlgo anyway. Getting the knack of the entry seems to require some finesse. Making sure the book is thick at the time of entry is key as well. I've also started to use a LMT + a MKT order for entry.

Anyway, i hope there is something here for those following Tech and I and i hope i don't embarrass myself too much in the process.


----------



## tech/a (23 January 2014)

Yes having a few problems myself.
Missing opens (Not home early enough) and not finding anything smacking me in the eye.

*Taking a trade to participate* (I have this desire to be involved) when the trade is poor.

Will keep at it.
Have now dropped to an over all small loss. 

I find this totally different to trading against myself.
The competitive nature of a competition is clouding my judgement.
Time to watch some TV and contemplate!


----------



## pavilion103 (23 January 2014)

Interesting to follow this, particularly the psychology involved .

Tech, even the last 2 nights have provided two strong shorts in the first 30-45 mins that I took (posted in the futures thread). I find most of my good ones come from the open. Now that I'm using bracket orders I can set targets and leave it if I choose.

Would certainly be keen to be involved in a future comp with you guys. I've got nothing to lose and everything to gain


----------



## pavilion103 (23 January 2014)

Gordon Gecko v Bud Fox


----------



## CanOz (24 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting to follow this, particularly the psychology involved .
> 
> Tech, even the last 2 nights have provided two strong shorts in the first 30-45 mins that I took (posted in the futures thread). I find most of my good ones come from the open. Now that I'm using bracket orders I can set targets and leave it if I choose.
> 
> Would certainly be keen to be involved in a future comp with you guys. I've got nothing to lose and everything to gain




Step right in, I'm in the *red* and Tech's about even...i haven't got any concerns what so ever. The way I'm looking at it is its just a way for me to be held a little more accountable while learning to trade spreads...I need that sometimes. If you feel that competing will help your trading then by all means go for it.


----------



## tech/a (24 January 2014)

PAV 
Go ahead just have your IB statement ready.

My last 3 trades have been a comedy 
Each time having the direction correct but being stopped
Out before it turns.
 Last night was 3.5 ticks past my stop before it fell to - 59
Yesterday was exactly to the tick.

If my entry timing was at the point of my stop placement ----- you get the picture.
Hence my comment I'm looking for the trade rather than allowing it to come to me.

That being identified will move on.

Won't be trading tonight.
Going to see " Wolf of Wall street "
I've read both books and been looking forward to the movie for over a year!


----------



## pavilion103 (24 January 2014)

It's a fine line isn't it Tech?
The one from the previous week where I got stopped out to the exact tick and missed a 50 point move. 
One in that same week, where I moved the stop 2 points, got stopped and lost out on another 30 or 40. 
An 80 point week looks a lot different to a 2 point loss!

This is why I love getting on an entry near the open and then having a loose stop to ride it for most of the day if it looks like a possibility. 


I think I will sit this one out guys for the following reason. 
I start a course in 2 weeks. 
Monday, Tuesday night at 6:30!
Wednesday and Friday I have commitments. 
Only leave me Thursday. 

Unitl daylight savings changes and then I can be on for the first 2 hours 5 nights a week (this is where I take 90% of my trades anyway) and use bracket orders if I need to leave.


Definitely keen to do it. Disappointed this time period sucks!


----------



## CanOz (24 January 2014)

Well we have our first win, all be it a small one. Doesn't do much for the overall R/R. Wheats seasonal exit was yesterday and the weak dollar pushed up the front month more than the back month. I took profits early in the Globex session just before the pit opened when the book was thick enough to get out without much slippage.

Onto the next spread.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (24 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> Well we have our first win, all be it a small one. Doesn't do much for the overall R/R. Wheats seasonal exit was yesterday and the weak dollar pushed up the front month more than the back month. I took profits early in the Globex session just before the pit opened when the book was thick enough to get out without much slippage.
> 
> Onto the next spread.




congrats on doing this tech and CanOz I am really enjoying the thread. I coudn't do this though, i want to win so bad i would ruin my acc. 

keep your focus


----------



## wayneL (24 January 2014)

>Apocalypto< said:


> congrats on doing this tech and CanOz I am really enjoying the thread. I coudn't do this though, i want to win so bad i would ruin my acc.
> 
> keep your focus




Murphy's Law
 Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2) 

 Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.


----------



## >Apocalypto< (24 January 2014)

wayneL said:


> Murphy's Law
> Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2)
> 
> Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.




i really beleive in this, i have noticed it myself.


----------



## CanOz (24 January 2014)

wayneL said:


> Murphy's Law
> Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2)
> 
> Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.




lol @ WayneL...

I think there is another Murphy's law as well...goes something like this:

When a new strategy is first traded live, the strategy will go into an extraordinary draw-down. This draw-down will make the trader question all the testing prior to going live. The resulting losses will beat the traders psyche to a pulp, leaving them battered and bruised and lying in the gutter.


----------



## tech/a (24 January 2014)

Best thing to do is fade Murphy.
Have a bit to post up when I have time.
Think it will be helpful.
Need charts.

Not unhappy with where I'm at.
Still over 2 mths to go.

Enjoying the challenge and learning something new.
Competing live -----


----------



## minwa (25 January 2014)

Sweet, volatility back to the party, now it gets interesting..


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> Best thing to do is fade Murphy.
> Have a bit to post up when I have time.
> Think it will be helpful.
> Need charts.
> ...




After reading various other posts on other threads
I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves 
No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
Fodder for cynics


----------



## IFocus (25 January 2014)

wayneL said:


> Murphy's Law
> Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2)
> 
> Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.





I think its a law of physics or some thing more profound.........


----------



## CanOz (27 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> After reading various other posts on other threads
> I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves
> No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
> Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
> Fodder for cynics





What the?

Did I miss something?


----------



## cynic (27 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> After reading various other posts on other threads
> I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves
> No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
> Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
> Fodder for cynics




As a self-respecting cynic, I demand my FODDER!


----------



## barney (27 January 2014)

tech/a said:


> After reading various other posts on other threads
> I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves
> No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
> Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
> Fodder for cynics




That's a big reversal of enthusiasm there Tech! 

I understand your point, but I'm sure you'd be the first to agree that a little dose of cynicism is healthy on a public Forum.  I think you'll find that the "readers" get a lot more out of what is written than the "repliers" often do

I also think the majority of punters have a good grasp of who is being fair dinkum so I wouldn't be too concerned about the serial "knockers" whoever they are.  Personally, I can't really think of any off the bat.

Cheers.


----------



## CanOz (27 January 2014)

Here's my trade record so far...


----------



## beachlife (29 January 2014)

Can, I am still curious as to why you trade spreads.  It seems you have to pick a direction but are using spreads to keep the risk low.  But you are paying two lots of costs and have to search for a spread that fits. 

Are you using spreads purely to reduce the leverage or is there some other reason?


----------



## CanOz (29 January 2014)

beachlife said:


> Can, I am still curious as to why you trade spreads.  It seems you have to pick a direction but are using spreads to keep the risk low.  But you are paying two lots of costs and have to search for a spread that fits.
> 
> Are you using spreads purely to reduce the leverage or is there some other reason?




I'm trading spreads to reduce the volatility and try to catch larger moves. I'm having a lousy start too, taking a beating on HO again...


----------



## tech/a (29 January 2014)

Still trading when I get the chance

Managed +350 on the DAX
-204 on the FTSE.

Over all since start I'm around even.

Got called away with people over and missed setting for an overnight short.
6570 area best.
May re test it so too much risk for me.


----------



## CanOz (29 January 2014)

I got stopped out on a currency trade yesterday for a 20 tick profit, then got absolutely reamed again for a full stop on that Heating Oil spread. The worst part was i woke up at 3:40 AM and could have exited for a smaller loss, but it was at a point where it could have turned....and didn't.


----------



## Valued (30 January 2014)

CanOz said:


> I got stopped out on a currency trade yesterday for a 20 tick profit, then got absolutely reamed again for a full stop on that Heating Oil spread. The worst part was i woke up at 3:40 AM and could have exited for a smaller loss, but it was at a point where it could have turned....and didn't.




Do you think though you should have actually exited knowing only what you knew at 3:40am or did you think it was the most positive expectation decision but it didn't work out this time?


----------



## CanOz (30 January 2014)

Valued said:


> Do you think though you should have actually exited knowing only what you knew at 3:40am or did you think it was the most positive expectation decision but it didn't work out this time?




Well yeah in hindsight i would have been better off. maybe i should have set my alarm and woke up before the session ended while the book was still thick. It would have been difficult being half asleep trying to get both legs filled properly.

The worst thing about trading these Calendar Spreads is the time zone....


----------



## pavilion103 (30 January 2014)

This hasn't exactly been an epic battle of the heavyweights as yet!

CanOz - I'm not familiar with what you're trading so I can't comment specifically on it.

Tech - I feel that a lack of screen time has been your worst enemy at a time where there has been a golden opportunity to profit. I dare say if you'd had the opportunity to be at the screen more the last couple of weeks you'd be up $5,000 or more!


----------



## CanOz (30 January 2014)

I guess there is something to be said for a good exit. This time i got out at my 2% limit or close enough...it went onto rally again...Energies are too volatile for me to trade right now...a reflection of the risk on/risk off mood i guess.


----------



## Newt (30 January 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> This hasn't exactly been an epic battle of the heavyweights as yet!




Awww - that's just _harsh_ isn't Pav?  
Actually, its probably better in some ways the wannabes are reading this and there aren't massive riches being clocked up.  The contest figures are probably a good wake up call how things are often very challenging when you first start out.  Agree it sounds like Tech has penalised himself time wise a bit without complaining, and Canoz is being downright brave attacking spreads in real time.  Cheers for all that are giving it a go....


----------



## tech/a (30 January 2014)

I'm enjoying the challenge.
Things will crank up I'm sure.
But nights like tonight where 
you have to be really at it--I
just don't have the time or inclination.
Rather get the odd good move and 
every now and again will be at the screen
when I can belt it--limit 3 contracts---

You only need a couple of them and your 
starting capital can be doubled quickly


----------



## CanOz (4 February 2014)

Will post an updated account tomorrow. Been a bit busy on the social calendar with all the Lunar New Year celebrations...I'm suffering from sleep deprivation from the 5th day fireworks too i reckon

Anyway, the recent volatility has spoiled some seasonal spreads, so not much to trade. Maybe I'll post up a few that i was watching so y'all can see how they've diverged.

My account will be down another 500 or so from the HO spread loss...

Just a waiting game now....rather be trading indices i think, that's where the volatility should be working in Techs favor at least.


----------



## tech/a (5 February 2014)

I too am a few 100 quid lower.
Excuses I know but had a big 60th on the W/E and still have interstate 
guests staying over--so little screen time and some sloppy trades before rushing off to dinner
or joining people socially at night.

Missed some great trades.
But that's life.
Will keep at it.

They say age is just a number---but its a bloody big number!


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (5 February 2014)

tech/a said:


> Excuses I know but *had a big 60th* on the W/E and still have interstate
> guests staying over.
> 
> They say age is just a number---but its a bloody big number!




You know you're 60 when...

The phrase zero to 60 means your life is flashing before your eyes.
You start getting carded again, but now cashiers want to see your senior card to make sure you're old enough to qualify for the discount.
Instead of adding blueberries to your cornflakes, you just sprinkle them with your morning medications.
Your joints snap, crackle and pop more than your Rice Krispies.
Your liver spots are starting to make you look like a Dalmatian.
Your gums have receded so far that you look like you could be the oldest cast member of Twilight.
You save a ton of money on shampoo, not because of your senior discount, but because you now have too little hair to bother with it.
You no longer need a spoon to stir the creamer in your coffee. You just pour the milk in and let your shaky hand do the job.
You go from wearing bifocals to wearing trifocals.
The 20-year-old clerk at the DMV thinks you're joking when you say you are there to renew your driver's license.
Your brand new lighter runs out of fluid before you can light all five-dozen candles on your cake.
Trying to remember what you wanted to wish for leaves the candles burning on your cake long enough to set off the smoke detector.
There are so many medication bottles in your bathroom cabinet that you no longer have room for cosmetics and toothpaste.
You finally have to admit that your "character lines" are really just wrinkles.
You start wondering who that old woman/man is looking in your window and realize you're standing in front of the mirror.
You remember back to when you used to need a booster seat at restaurants, and realize that now you could use one to see over the dash on your car.
You used to make fun of adult diaper commercials, and now you're clipping coupons for them "just in case."
You look back fondly at your 40th birthday and laugh at all the trauma you felt about getting so old.

<.<  >.>


----------



## tech/a (5 February 2014)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> You know you're 60 when...
> 
> The phrase zero to 60 means your life is flashing before your eyes.
> You start getting carded again, but now cashiers want to see your senior card to make sure you're old enough to qualify for the discount.
> ...




Seriously if I was that 60 yr. old --shoot me!


----------



## burglar (5 February 2014)

tech/a said:


> Seriously if I was that 60 yr. old --shoot me!




I used to say that ... but I have had a few good days since my 60th!


----------



## Trembling Hand (6 February 2014)

CanOz said:


> Just a waiting game now....rather be trading indices i think, that's where the volatility should be working in Techs favor at least.




Can I join in since I've been hobbled today? Largest size was a 4 lot so that would of been about half the allowed capital.

I submit my 45 minutes work,



$1700 AUD up. get back to me when I need to do some more.


----------



## CanOz (6 February 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Can I join in since I've been hobbled today? Largest size was a 4 lot so that would of been about half the allowed capital.
> 
> I submit my 45 minutes work,
> 
> ...





Ok...you win...first prize is a tryout with a Prop Firm...oh yeah you already work for a Prop Firm...ok, you get a pack of chewy


----------



## tech/a (6 February 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Can I join in since I've been hobbled today? Largest size was a 4 lot so that would of been about half the allowed capital.
> 
> I submit my 45 minutes work,
> 
> ...





Great stuff

But with all due respect its not your $$s.

Hop on tonight with your $$s and sure no problems.
I look forward to an absolute caning!


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## CanOz (6 February 2014)

tech/a said:


> Great stuff
> 
> But with all due respect its not your $$s.
> 
> ...




I reckon that IS his dollars, he said they were having IT trouble...


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## CanOz (6 February 2014)

Here's my account balance....

Got a ZW trade on at the moment, lets hope i get a decent one this time!


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## tech/a (6 February 2014)

I'm negative.
Few hundred Quid.
Every poodle has its day!


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## CanOz (6 February 2014)

Here are some spreads that blew out / failed...Lots of this around this year, i suspect due to the equity market volatility which is driving volatility in the Us Dollar and over to commodities maybe?


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## skc (6 February 2014)

For the benefit of all readers, here's the thread that prompted this competition.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27837&highlight=return

We are only 1 month into the 3 month time frame so plenty of time left to turn things around yet.


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## skc (6 February 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> Can I join in since I've been hobbled today? Largest size was a 4 lot so that would of been about half the allowed capital.
> 
> I submit my 45 minutes work,
> 
> $1700 AUD up. get back to me when I need to do some more.




This I did over 4 trades, trading 1 contract only.




There... go trade some more


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## Trembling Hand (6 February 2014)

skc said:


> This I did over 4 trades, trading 1 contract only.
> 
> There... go trade some more




ya got me i give up.


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## Trembling Hand (7 February 2014)

Just for some balance. First hour a little different today..


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## kid hustlr (7 February 2014)

my P+L  for today would make a lot of people feel pretty good about themselves


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## avion (7 February 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> my P+L  for today would make a lot of people feel pretty good about themselves




...do show us kid! Maybe the rest of us will get inspired....


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## kid hustlr (7 February 2014)

avion said:


> ...do show us kid! Maybe the rest of us will get inspired....




You know what, it's all relative and truth be told with the size im trading it's not THAT bad. That being said it's my worst day since being here for 9 months. Just as I thought I was turning a corner to.


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## skc (7 February 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> You know what, it's all relative and truth be told with the size im trading it's not THAT bad. That being said it's my worst day since being here for 9 months. Just as I thought I was turning a corner to.




What does "+500 more in bro" mean?

Without knowing what size you are trading.... it's not that bad regardless of size (esp considering that you are trading prop)! Drawdown periods are character building... keep at it.

P.S. Nevermind - $500 more in brokerage.


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## Trembling Hand (7 February 2014)

skc said:


> (esp considering that you are trading prop)!




You are kid?


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## skc (7 February 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> You are kid?




https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27819&p=807199&viewfull=1#post807199



> 1. How's your overall performance?
> I can't complain, made the move to prop early in April, treaded water/learned the game for the first few months, then took the plunge and struggled initially yet the last couple of months I truly I feel I've had some 'aha' moments and the results have turned around accordingly. It's now time to take the next step and my confidence is sky high. It's nice to know 'I can do this' given the fact that 3 months ago I wasn't sure if I would still be in the game come Xmas


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## kid hustlr (7 February 2014)

skc said:


> What does "+500 more in bro" mean?
> 
> Without knowing what size you are trading.... it's not that bad regardless of size (esp considering that you are trading prop)! Drawdown periods are character building... keep at it.
> 
> P.S. Nevermind - $500 more in brokerage.




Yeah I know in the grand scheme of things its nothing but I've worked my but off over the past 9 months getting through that initial learning period and watching the desk fees build up etc, late last year I finally got my account back to even (from a long way in the neg the desk fees can build up and Im on a good deal with great guys too) and then I've walked in from a 2 week holiday and got smoked on the open the last few days!



Trembling Hand said:


> You are kid?




ya mate been at it 9 months sfe bonds but the bloke gave me ftse small limits to experiment as I said good group


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## avion (7 February 2014)

So you call $1200 profit or thereabouts your worst day!! Well, i would be feeling good about myself with that sort of performance...


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## kid hustlr (7 February 2014)

avion said:


> So you call $1200 profit or thereabouts your worst day!! Well, i would be feeling good about myself with that sort of performance...




?? stuck 1200 plus brokerage...

don't mean to clog up the thread can/tech if you want to move this to the futures thread or something you can.


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## avion (7 February 2014)

...oops, i am used to see negative sign in front when down...


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## CanOz (7 February 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> ?? stuck 1200 plus brokerage...
> 
> don't mean to clog up the thread can/tech if you want to move this to the futures thread or something you can.




Doesn't phase me Kid, if a mod wants to move it over to the Transition to Futures then its fine too....

By the way, can you go into a little detail in a prop thread about your transition to prop? I'd be keen for that


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## Trembling Hand (7 February 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> ya mate been at it 9 months sfe bonds but the bloke gave me ftse small limits to experiment as I said good group




Oh cool. For some reason I thought you had left. 



kid hustlr said:


> then I've walked in from a 2 week holiday and got smoked on the open the last few days!




Ha! You didn't listen too hard to the morning commentry did ya?



> To me it looks like a clear buy







: /


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## kid hustlr (7 February 2014)

I think I need to be more weary trading the open, very easy to get run over. What bugged me today was I actually did want to buy it and my feel was freaking spot on but somehow I got caught short and just couldn't get out.

Can,

not sure I'll be able to give much insight and as you'll see from my thread when i type it I've hardly been super successful but I'll type up a thread sometime this weekend. Thinking ill drown my sorrows in front of the big bash tonight 2 days back into it and i can feel those stress levels rising ha


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## CanOz (7 February 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> I think I need to be more weary trading the open, very easy to get run over. What bugged me today was I actually did want to buy it and my feel was freaking spot on but somehow I got caught short and just couldn't get out.
> 
> Can,
> 
> not sure I'll be able to give much insight and as you'll see from my thread when i type it I've hardly been super successful but I'll type up a thread sometime this weekend. Thinking ill drown my sorrows in front of the big bash tonight 2 days back into it and i can feel those stress levels rising ha




Don't blame you, i think i'll do the same :silly:

I think it would be good to know the process you went through, as so far i can tell its bloody hard work. It would be great for others to know this too...


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## Trembling Hand (7 February 2014)

kid hustlr said:


> I think I need to be more weary trading the open, very easy to get run over. What bugged me today was I actually did want to buy it and my feel was freaking spot on but somehow I got caught short and just couldn't get out.
> 
> Can,
> 
> not sure I'll be able to give much insight and as you'll see from my thread when i type it I've hardly been super successful but I'll type up a thread sometime this weekend. Thinking ill drown my sorrows in front of the big bash tonight 2 days back into it and i can feel those stress levels rising ha




You mark up a chart with support and possible targets, or right down a trading idea before the open? etc

Its a little easier waiting for a setup when you actually have one to go by rather than just winging it tick by tick.

Speaking of wasted plans I know......


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## kid hustlr (7 February 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> You mark up a chart with support and possible targets, or right down a trading idea before the open? etc
> 
> Its a little easier waiting for a setup when you actually have one to go by rather than just winging it tick by tick.
> 
> ...




I'll start a new thread, it might generate some discussion and I'll go into more detail about 'a day in the life of kid hustlr' but these were my thoughts this morning:

- It appears that the market has had a 'change of tune' since the RBA meeting on Tuesday. Since that meeting the curve has moved up strongly from 1.005 to 1.07 and both markets have clearly been heavy with the recent highs being made pre RBA in both markets (3s and 10s). The selling flow has been heavy in both markets since then with XT being especially heavy.

- Noting the above, we've got RBA minutes/talk today and then the big NFP tonight and as such most guys will want to be square going into it. Given the market appears short term short and we've had a pivot high and then 3 days of selling there may be some short covering to take place. I also note that the volume last night was relatively light and YT is at a little bit of support.

- Given most of the flow is in XT these days and the curve has moved quite sizeably over the past 3-4 days to the upside with the market coming off, I think I'd rather buy XT and worst case be short the curve. There must be some long curve players that need to unwind. One could also argue the curve is a longer term sell and this is a sell the bounce chance anyway.




You've harped on about context til the cows come home and the last few months the penny has dropped for me, its still a matter of trusting yourself and knowing the best way to execute my bias though. Anyway I'll write up a thread soon


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## pavilion103 (17 February 2014)

So is this no longer running now?

I'd be interested in considering putting my hand up for something similar once daylight savings changes and I'll be able to trade more frequently.

I will consider it, but not sure yet.
Anyone else interested?

So it would probably commence he beginning of April or around then I think.


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## CanOz (17 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> So is this no longer running now?
> 
> I'd be interested in considering putting my hand up for something similar once daylight savings changes and I'll be able to trade more frequently.
> 
> ...




I'm still trading, just nothing to report, been in a wheat spread for a week and its hardly moved....of course the Heating Oil spread took off again and hit the profit target in three days...without me. 

I'll hopefully be employed again by then so i'll be out mate...


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## ThingyMajiggy (17 February 2014)

Hopefully it keeps going, there hasn't been much action in here, would love to see it get more active.


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## beachlife (17 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> So is this no longer running now?
> 
> I'd be interested in considering putting my hand up for something similar once daylight savings changes and I'll be able to trade more frequently.
> 
> ...




You might find it interesting watching these guys, even if you arent trading much now.  You dont see how or what they trade, but seeing the returns change and thinking about what's going on in the market is interesting.  The bloke on top spot came from no where and was over 100% last week, now seems to be going back a bit.  The returns are straight returns on starting capital.  So if the bloke on top spot started with the min $10k he has made $6.5k to date, $20k would put his profit at $13k etc.  They also have FX running this year so interesting to compare the returns.

http://www.worldcupchampionships.com/live-stats-3


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## CanOz (27 February 2014)

Still in my wheat spread, its pretty quiet though...and slightly in profit.

No other spreads on the radar that are near entry yet.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2014)

With Tech no longer around here, would you be interested in starting a new "competition" when daylight savings ends and I'm back on "full time"?

Anyone who is interested can sign up. 
We could even do a leaderboard.
Weekly updates. 
Run for 3 months. 

Maybe we can have a maximum starting capital, say $35K. 
(I'd only have 20-25K in my account - enough for 2-3 contracts of FTSE, but doesn't fuss me if someone has 35-40K because even if I put in extra, I wouldn't use that amount). 

We can make the "winner" the one with the most profit (not largest account size or percentage increase of account size).


CanOz would you be keen?
Anyone else interested in putting their hand up?

I believe that this would generate great interest on this site.


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## skc (27 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> With Tech no longer around here




Do you know where he is?


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## CanOz (27 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> CanOz would you be keen?




I'll have a go if I'm around...currently awaiting an offer or two on employment back in my previous field. When i accept I'll be trading Nick's Power Setups EOD again.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2014)

skc said:


> Do you know where he is?




I'm guessing at work lol


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## skc (27 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> I'm guessing at work lol




He works? No seriously... he hasn't posted since 10 Feb which is unlike him - he was posting even during his overseas holiday! So just checking to see if you know that he's OK etc.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2014)

skc said:


> He works? No seriously... he hasn't posted since 10 Feb which is unlike him - he was posting even during his overseas holiday! So just checking to see if you know that he's OK etc.




He's all good.
I keep in regular touch.

Not sure if he'll be around here for some time though.


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## skc (27 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> He's all good.
> I keep in regular touch.




Thanks. Good to hear. 



pavilion103 said:


> Not sure if he'll be around here for some time though.




That's a shame.


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## cynic (27 February 2014)

skc said:


> Thanks. Good to hear.
> 
> 
> 
> That's a shame.




+1

Thanks for letting us know pav,please send him my regards. His participation is definitely missed. 
(On second thoughts, , I did manage to make small profits on the DAX this past fortnight, so perhaps my interests are better served by his absence. Then again, profit or not, I definitely miss him.)

I'll certainly be watching this competition with interest and quietly comparing posted results with my personal performance, but shall decline to participate (primarily out of concern for the sanctity of my grail and secondarily on account of three months being an unsuitably short time frame for my trading methods).


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## Buckfont (27 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> He's all good.
> I keep in regular touch.
> 
> Not sure if he'll be around here for some time though.




That's a shame as he is a great contributor to this forum. Bring back the Duck. This the first signature on the petition.


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## pavilion103 (27 February 2014)

I've passed on the regards


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## waza1960 (27 February 2014)

> That's a shame as he is a great contributor to this forum. Bring back the Duck. This the first signature on the petition.



 +1 however unless I have missed something sure is an odd duck.................

 Enters a competition and then disappears without a trace no explanation no nothing


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## Lone Wolf (27 February 2014)

waza1960 said:


> +1 however unless I have missed something sure is an odd duck.................
> 
> Enters a competition and then disappears without a trace no explanation no nothing




Only Tech (and possibly Pav) know for sure, but I wasn't surprised he left.

He started the bottom/top picking thread, which was supposed to be about recognizing an impending shift from one direction to the other so that you can get on board early. A very valuable skill. But people gave him a hard time about proving that he can exactly pinpoint tops/bottoms to the tick. He also received a bit of flak about why he isn't showing examples of making a weeks wages in a few hours in this challenge. So I wouldn't be surprised at all if he decided that he doesn't have to prove anything and that this is all a waste of his time.

Having said that, Tech can still win this if Can tanks.


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## nulla nulla (28 February 2014)

Have either party posted an update/summary of all their trades to date and the net profit/loss generated since this competition began?


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## pavilion103 (28 February 2014)

From a personal point of view I find it highly disappointing. 
As soon as I came on this site I recognised Tech as the real deal and someone to learn from. 
What he says makes sense and more importantly it works. 

If others want to attack and try and cut him down then that's their choice. 
I'll just sit back, continue to listen and continue to profit.


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## waza1960 (28 February 2014)

> From a personal point of view I find it highly disappointing.
> As soon as I came on this site I recognised Tech as the real deal and someone to learn from.
> What he says makes sense and more importantly it works.
> 
> ...




 Well I have being a member for over 7 yrs and have never made any criticism of Tech in that time plus I cannot
 find any criticism of him on this thread so I guess your talking about elsewhere

 I just think its a bad look when you enter a competition you are behind and then disappear without a trace


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## pavilion103 (28 February 2014)

Yeh I'm talking about other threads.

I'm sure he will be in touch with CanOz about his results.


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## skc (28 February 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> From a personal point of view I find it highly disappointing.
> As soon as I came on this site I recognised Tech as the real deal and someone to learn from.
> What he says makes sense and more importantly it works.
> 
> ...




Attack him personally? Or attack (challenge) his views? 

I have seen plenty of the latter (I do it a lot, it engages the mind) but not much of the former.

Would be good to see him at least post here and give some closure to the many eager followers.


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## pavilion103 (28 February 2014)

I dunno guys.
I'm not a defence lawyer.
I'm just happy to be here sharing ideas.


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## minwa (14 March 2014)

Anyone want to have another game ? Let's not call it "vs" or "competition" this time, I think that made the pressure too big.

Just free-for-all live trading game. I propose the following:

-Live money only
-Minimum $5-10k
-Weekly updates of P/L
-Mod/Admin to check statement at end. Not revealing positions while they're on, unless you want to.

NO prizes, titles to be won so no pressure. No judgements of % made/Risk taken, all personal accounts so everyones trading sensibly to their own risk. Readers will make up their own mind about the results.


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## havaiana (14 March 2014)

minwa said:


> Anyone want to have another game ? Let's not call it "vs" or "competition" this time, I think that made the pressure too big.
> 
> Just free-for-all live trading game. I propose the following:
> 
> ...




I'm already giving daily updates in a blog, so might participate in this, wont take me any extra work. I don't understand the minimum/maximum $ thing though, account balance is just not relevant. There has to be a better way to judge performance. I'm thinking something like total P&L in comparison to largest daily loss (or maybe in comparison to average daily loss or max drawdown).

The returns need to be based on risk somehow, not on account balance or contracts, they are just not relevant  to performance imo. This could also allow some people with bigger accounts to participate and post risk adjusted results without revealing account balances. It would put everyone on an equal playing field. Statements could still be confirmed by a mod at the end.

At the moment I withdraw money from my account to get it back to around $2,000 if it gets too much over. That is all the money I need in my account to trade 2 contracts. I'm probably trading more contracts per day than many people with $10k accounts. But contracts also have no relevance, an active trader will make less per contract but have much smaller drawdowns which allows them to trade more size. A once or twice a week type trader could have huge returns per contract but have massive drawdowns in comparison and much less ability to size up.


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## havaiana (14 March 2014)

havaiana said:


> ...I'm thinking something like total P&L in comparison to largest daily loss (or maybe in comparison to average daily loss or max drawdown)....




Too late to edit, my first two suggestions wouldn't make sense. I think performance would be best based on percentage profit over max drawdown.


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## Trembling Hand (14 March 2014)

havaiana said:


> Too late to edit, my first two suggestions wouldn't make sense. I think performance would be best based on percentage profit over max drawdown.




People could just be free to present what they think is their advantage to trading the way they do. Others can then see what each person is trying to achieve. Some want to just survive :horse: others have a performance metric in mind :dunno:. Some want to be :cowboy:

Would be good to see some continual trading achievements either way.


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## havaiana (14 March 2014)

Trembling Hand said:


> People could just be free to present what they think is their advantage to trading the way they do. Others can then see what each person is trying to achieve. Some want to just survive :horse: others have a performance metric in mind :dunno:. Some want to be :cowboy:
> 
> Would be good to see some continual trading achievements either way.





That's true, will probably get the most benefit this way, if we all just post it our own way it will also show different perspective on how we all look at our results too I guess


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## CanOz (14 March 2014)

Well i exited my last spread trade the other night after it hit my time stop. The spreads just aren't trading the same as before i started...thats my bad as luck again. To be honest its very hard to stay interested. There are other issues as well that should be sorted out with daylight savings. While i don't an issue trading these as part of a portfolio of swing trading strategies, you need to be in the right time zone to get in and out of them. I wasn't using stops either and that was a little nerve wracking to begin with. 

I'll post my account balance when i stop trading or go back to work, which ever comes first.


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## Caveroute (14 March 2014)

CanOz said:


> Well i exited my last spread trade the other night after it hit my time stop. The spreads just aren't trading the same as before i started...thats my bad as luck again. To be honest its very hard to stay interested. There are other issues as well that should be sorted out with daylight savings. While i don't an issue trading these as part of a portfolio of swing trading strategies, you need to be in the right time zone to get in and out of them. I wasn't using stops either and that was a little nerve wracking to begin with.
> 
> I'll post my account balance when i stop trading or go back to work, which ever comes first.




Chin up Can.

The first 25 yrs are the worst !


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## CanOz (15 March 2014)

Caveroute said:


> Chin up Can.
> 
> The first 25 yrs are the worst !




ahh thats good, another 15 to go then...by that time i'll be 63 and be incapable of seeing my screens...


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## skc (15 March 2014)

Caveroute said:


> Chin up Can.
> 
> The first 25 yrs are the worst !




Haha. So true! Come to think of it, it's like having children...


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## lesm (15 March 2014)

havaiana said:


> Too late to edit, my first two suggestions wouldn't make sense. I think performance would be best based on percentage profit over max drawdown.




Why not just simplify it to points won vs points lost and who has the largest point gain.

Don't really need to worry about account size or other factors, such as trading OPMs, private traders, etc.

If people want to present more info up to them.


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## minwa (6 May 2014)

If anyone still has interest in this my updated results for year to date.

First quarter was disappointing at around 8%, second quarter got back on track, a month to go to make up for first quarter. 

Review: Didn't manage to catch the explosive moves like gold and agriculturals, just rode the boring more predictable markets like treasury bonds and healthcare with backspreads. 

Forward view: my view is that we will probably see inflection points and cycle inversions in the next few months in major markets. Tracking capital flow will be the key for me.




Will be in Taiwan temporarily so will day trade more with the better time zone, for comparison my daytrading account is only up 13% so far YTD, I certainly haven't been utilizing it to full effect with the potential to be more aggressive with lower draw downs. 

If anyone is still up for the game/competition maybe June is a good starting date ?


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## pavilion103 (6 May 2014)

Were you part of the competition? I can't remember anyone else joining?


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## minwa (6 May 2014)

pavilion103 said:


> Were you part of the competition? I can't remember anyone else joining?




Nope I did not trade futures and my account size is over 25k so I was not part of the competition.

Just posted for fun to whoevers interested.

I did post earlier though:



minwa said:


> First week results. Won't be officialy entering the competition as I am not trading futures and my capital not within required range.


----------

