# Potential Breakdown Alerts



## chops_a_must (6 January 2008)

Guidelines stolen from the potential breakout thread:



> The following are absolutely mandatory:
> 
> 1) A chart. If there is no chart attached the post will be removed.
> 2) A few sentences explaining your analysis, including details of any relevant support and resistance points.




Obviously this thread is for any stocks looking likely to break down. I'll go first.

I can't see any reason to be long ERA. Still firmly in an almost year long downtrend, in a market that is showing a tendency to roll over on stocks in established downtrends. Seasonal mining difficulties coming up... in what looks to be a very wet wet season. Just a few reasons to get short... plus, ERA reacts badly to any market correction...

But there is both good and bad news. The good news being that this should only get to it's lower trend line. The bad news is, that trend line will be between 10 and 11 dollars if/ when it gets there.

A couple of T/A observations. I'm assuming we are in a corrective c of some sort. A symmetrical C should see this get to about 10.80. We also have quite an obvious and symmetrical H&S pattern just about complete. The breakdown target from that is in the low 12's. Another interesting thing, is that this has had almost no buying interest on dips. Volume just stays flat. Virtually no interest on up days of late either. All this points to a high probability of seeing ERA between about $12 and $11.

With the chance of a very good R:R trade on it.

Cheers.


----------



## chops_a_must (9 January 2008)

That ERA trade still looks good. 

Here is another couple I had been looking at, and had shorts on until yesterday. 

QAN, and BHP. Was looking for a false breakout that you get often out of these descending triangles on BHP, to fade. Obviously, that aint gonna happen now.

QAN was a volatility breakdown, which put in a big hammer close to a fib point. Which is why I left it. Will be interesting to see if it tests the lows of that bar...


----------



## chops_a_must (16 January 2008)

There's probably a few hundred stocks sitting on support right now, with a fair few to break it. But here are a couple anyway. Interestingly, both energy stocks.

ORG looks pretty bad, and AOE is sitting on long term support. Recently got out of ORG, as I was just waiting for it to hit my stop. Looks like it will go much lower.

ORG first up, followed by my beloved AOE


----------



## Aviator33 (10 March 2008)

Haven't had much action in this thread for awhile so thought I'd chuck one in - BXB. Possible breakdown from a descending triangle, stochastic divergence, volume bubble, chart explains it all.

Cheers
AV


----------



## Joules MM1 (24 September 2021)

ASX:SLR

has been hugging the upchannel line for a few days now, expected it would take off after retesting the channel floor

1.280 is probably the freefall level when snapped (although i suspect that could be tightened up)









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




price is coiling so whichever way it moves now it is likely to have momentum
requiring decision to do nothing if long and (probably) a stop exit at 1.280 (or tighter)
it is unlikely to merely go and retest 1.280 ....without failing
jumping 1.42's would be a very good indication money that  matters is chasing


----------

