# Practical Elliott Wave Trading



## Nick Radge (14 March 2009)

Due to the amount of hot air being bantered around elsewhere I thought I'd do a specific Elliott Wave strategy that people can clearly understand and replicate. I will show the specific rules here and you can apply them when you see similar patterns. I will update charts and examples on an ongoing basis but will do so only after the setup is triggered so my subscribers are not disadvantaged.

I have no use for time.
I have no use for cycles.
I have no use for intra day time frames.

If you do. Great. Go use them elsewhere.

My point is that over time we'll make very good profits with ease and without stress. Anyone can do this in a bull or bear market, on any time frame, in any market and without expensive software or a degree in rocket science. Let me also stress that EW is not making the money.

As usual I'll be happy to answer questions.

Let's lay out the rules, the pattern and the setup using recent price action in CBA. This pattern example is an A-B-C but I will also trade triangles, flags and rectangles. 

*Chart 1:*
You can see here that CBA advances strongly off the January low. We know its a strong move because its quite a clean swing higher that contains a gap. Subscribers will know why that gap is important but for our example it simply shows good buying pressure. We do not know, and need not know, if the high set on Feb 13 was a wave-1 or -A. All we need to know is that its the end of an impulse and after every impulse a 3-wave counter trend move will occur. 

Next note the 3-wave counter down to the Mar 9 lows. This is what you need to watch out for. This is the setup. It should retrace now more than 70% of the prior advance and it should contain 3 clear waves.



*Chart 2:*
Now we determine an entry level or trigger point. We do this by measuring from the Feb 13 high down to each successive low point. In this example you would have started on Mar 3, then Mar 4, 5, 6 and 9. So you take the high point to the absolute low point. We do not know how far down this swing will be so we keep adjusting each day until the market swings higher again. 

The trigger point is a 25% swing up off the lowest low which occurred on Mar 10 entering us long at $27.67. At no time in the preceding 5 bars did the market swing off an EOD close of 25%. An entry would have been setup on Mar 4th had prices swung higher that day - but they didn't, indeed they opened lower. This swing entry technique is outlined in my book, pages 99 - 118.

Therefore we are long at $27.67. We place our protective stop 1c below the lowest point which is $26.43. Our risk is therefore $1.24



*Chart 3:*
To set our target we measure the length of wave-1 or -A and add that distance to the recent low of $26.43. Our target is therefore $33.80 which if met will offer a risk/reward of 4.94. We trail a stop behind or take profit at the target.

Will the target be met? Who knows. In theory it should but with a risk/reward of almost 5 I will take these trades any day of the week even if they only succeed 30% of the time.





_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Trembling Hand (14 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Due to the amount of hot air being bantered around elsewhere I thought I'd do a specific Elliott Wave strategy that people can clearly understand and replicate.



 Yes good idea. lets hope we get trading setups, real ones, not endless (worthless) "_we have 4 things can play out here" _type of post.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 March 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes good idea. lets hope we get trading setups, real ones, not endless (worthless) "_we have 4 things can play out here" _type of post.




hear hear

p.s and no offense intended as understand your obligation to your subscribers getting a heads up /direction b4 the other readers BUT theres already enough "hindsight" entry points given in this forum to choke a cow ... as in drawing a chart then marking an ideal entry afterwards .... would be nice for a direction to be noted as a probability at the time or even pointing out the trade entry at the time .NOT once it has moved and one can draw in the entry afterwards 

i can do that too 

i post entrys here AT time RIGHT OR WRONG at least i cant be accused of picking entrys in hindsight 

like i said no offense intended just bored with seeing at what price ppl SHOULD or DID enter AFTER the fact 

have a great day


----------



## Nick Radge (14 March 2009)

Your point is taken nunthewiser however:

*1.* Its pretty cut and dried from an entry perspective. 3-waves down with a 25% swing back up. Its hardly a hindsight entry. It is posted after the fact but its hardly a hindsight when the specific entry trigger is almost systematic.
*2.* I also won't put the setup here because I will be liable.


----------



## sammy84 (14 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> i post entrys here AT time RIGHT OR WRONG at least i cant be accused of picking entrys in hindsight




Hey Nun

I am a subscriber to Nicks service, and have seen how he uses EW real time with great results. That being said, I'm glad he doesn't post his set up here for free


----------



## Porper (14 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> as in drawing a chart then marking an ideal entry afterwards .... would be nice for a direction to be noted as a probability at the time or even pointing out the trade entry at the time .




I think the whole point here is to show examples of specific "trades" using Elliot Wave,without hindsight and proving it as a valid method.I think Nick Radge has done this with his earlier post.

Everything is in place from how to identify the set up through to entry, exit and trade management.




nunthewiser said:


> NOT once it has moved and one can draw in the entry afterwards .




Well this can't happen in this case because the trade has been viewed by his subscribers so no after the fact labelling is going to occur.

Posting "real time" isn't going to happen for the reasons Nick has mentioned.Also how many are going to follow his trades because they know he has a positive expectancy, ie he knows what he is doing and how to make a profit ? Plenty I would suggest.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 March 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Hey Nun
> 
> I am a subscriber to Nicks service, and have seen how he uses EW real time with great results. That being said, I'm glad he doesn't post his set up here for free




I respect and understand that hence my previous part of my post . I too would be piiised off IF i was paying for something he was giving out free elswhere .....

i think my post has kinda been lost in translation . i have no probs with his responsibilities and my hindsight entrys was mainly a generalization of what does happen in the forums .

i do not subscribe to him or antone actually , i follow my own methods .good and bad ...... i take your word on it that he gives u the heads up AT trade entry time etc etc .......... never doubted his sincerity OR ability ..just pointing out that trades are a lot easier to impress and look good after the fact  

hey .. if it was joe bloggs or foo man choo etc  that posted these charts and entrys here AFTER the fact would u guys say the same thing ?


----------



## sammy84 (14 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> hey .. if it was joe bloggs or foo man choo etc  that posted these charts and entrys here AFTER the fact would u guys say the same thing ?




Probably not


----------



## beamstas (14 March 2009)

It's funny that people jump on and say that Nick's post is worthless because it is in hindsight. If you want the setups then subscribe.

The analysis hasn't even played out yet.


----------



## nunthewiser (14 March 2009)

beamstas said:


> It's funny that people jump on and say that Nick's post is worthless because it is in hindsight. If you want the setups then subscribe.
> 
> The analysis hasn't even played out yet.




um ithink you need to reread the posts . no one mentioned worthless, no one jumping on nick radges posts actually .... i have no doubt as to his abilitys as he would not be in the position he is now without ability and sound financial management 


so if it was me or some other unrespected poster that posted a chart and added an entry that happened in the past it would be ok and you would cheer me on also .OR would it be viewed with a slanty eye and wonderment at why i did not point out the entry at the time?


----------



## nunthewiser (14 March 2009)

aw bugga it no need to reply , the ppl that viewed my posts have already answered and we have discussed it ... no need to batter up this fine thread with anymore bullsheet 

sorry nick all yours


----------



## beamstas (14 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> um ithink you need to reread the posts . no one mentioned worthless, no one jumping on nick radges posts actually .... i have no doubt as to his abilitys as he would not be in the position he is now without ability and sound financial management
> 
> 
> so if it was me or some other unrespected poster that posted a chart and added an entry that happened in the past it would be ok and you would cheer me on also .OR would it be viewed with a slanty eye and wonderment at why i did not point out the entry at the time?




You've just started out playing basketball.
You are in the gym after school/work shooting hoops.

Michael Jordan and some random bloke both approach you and attempt to teach you how to play. Who do you listen to?

I'd listen to the *one with the reputation.*

We know michael can shoot hoops and do it consistently. 

You are probably right, i wouldn't hold just any post by anyone in high regards just from looking at a trade in hindsight. Nick has a reputation, he posts his trades live and his subscribers had access to this before it had even played out this far.

I think his analysis is pretty fair.

Thanks
Brad


----------



## acouch (14 March 2009)

evening all
it has been a interesting read..
but i don't know about the others, but i post my road map
hopefully to help traders..whether you believe in it or not..but it is my effort to help other traders out that to find there own level..as i know how hard it was in 1999..
most of the guys that post here all have there own technique's and all have merit, and have had
great success with it all..but for goodness sake..lets all learn from each other..
and don't let the hormones get involved, as it isn't a easy world out there for traders..and those that do survive are few and far between..

and hopefully those that read the posts on this forum and others..will start there own learning process..as that is half the fun of trading..if you don't put the time in to learn you will always be a lamb following the herd..knowledge creates freedom..
if this post is not in the right forum..please feel free to remove it
have a great evening 
ac


----------



## tech/a (15 March 2009)

> 2. I also won't put the setup here because I will be liable.



*
NICK*

*You know more about this than most.*
If I as a contributor here post a chart with a setup as I see it with the intention of explaining and following a particular analysis or methodology which I have done many times---without the intention of recommending it or the methodology as a trade--could I be liable in some way?

Also if I post my own opinion of my analysis of a stock which is being followed in a thread---again without a recommendation of what I think people should do---do I have a liability?

Or do you mean because of your professional position you could be liable?


----------



## Nick Radge (15 March 2009)

Tech,
The difference is that I am in a position and expected to know better, so yes we can call it a professional liability. Others need not worry.

Lets keep this topic on target and not drop it into the poop like others.

I won't post the chart until later this week. Those that are interested can look at CSL.

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Nick Radge (15 March 2009)

I have been asked why I would trade like this if it only worked 30% of the time.

Simple.

3 wins at 4.94 units of risk = +14.82 units
7 losses at 1 unit of risk = -7 units

Net result is 7.82 units profit. Assume a unit is 2% risk of capital, therefore my return on capital is 15.64% for every 10 trades done. 200 trades a year for an EOD trader is well within reason over the longer term. Some short term periods, such as the last 5 months there are less (I think I have made 23 trades since November), but the shorting ban and lack of shortable stock has contributed to that.

Obviously these numbers will move around within a larger sample. Some times a 5R trade will not be forthcoming. Some times we have 10 losses out of 10. Other times the market will be very kind, maybe even throwing out 5 successive 5R wins and now losses. What the market throws out is up to the market.

All we need to know is that when the market throws out a trend we have to stay with it for as long as it goes our way.

In stronger trending environments I would not use a target as in this example.


----------



## Frank D (16 March 2009)

Nick,

If this is practical Elliot wave then it’s ambiguous at best.

Take CBA as an example.

You don’t know C is a wave until price moves away from C, as it isn’t 
hard-coded into the methodology. As most EW traders could, would, or 
might not have done the same thing

You’ve reacted to the price action and are trading the price action 
rather than using EW to make any entry decision.

Your entry isn’t based on EW, but rather price action, and now your
 potential target is based on a fibonacci extension pattern.

In my opinion you’ve just applied different strategies to trade CBA, but 
then optimized Elliot wave into the equation afterwards

Which makes much more sense to me, and illustrates why EW is 
constantly lagging and being optimized afterwards.

Then the question begs, why would you use EW in the first place if you 
are relying on other variables to make trading decisions based on entry.

You might as well just find set-ups in the market, optimize your 
entry strategies and apply fibonacci extensions techniques, instead 
of constantly curve fitting EW.

It would be make much more sense in saying... "_I use certain trading 
set-ups that are unique to myself and some others, and then I optimize
 my trading using Elliot wave afterwards:- Practical Trading_"

This is why EW is illusory to the majority because each entry taken is unique the individual trader and then curve fitted to suit the methodology, resulting in different counts and wave structures and confusion based on an individuals interpretation of the trend…..

 Or in your case the trade.


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2009)

Frank.

No illusion from me.

*Just let the man do his thing.*


----------



## James Austin (16 March 2009)

is that trade closed tech?

just out of interest, why did you close before Nick's target $33.80, if u dont mind? i'm assuming u r using his stuff!

interestingly, my target is $31.70 (if reached on Monday/ $31.90 if Tues . . . )


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2009)

No its not closed.


----------



## Nick Radge (16 March 2009)

Thanks Frank - I am not interested in your opinion.


----------



## beamstas (16 March 2009)

Frank D said:


> Nick,
> 
> If this is practical Elliot wave then it’s ambiguous at best.
> 
> ...




I'll try answer this for you frank...

EW doesn't make the money. EW can be used simply to confirm a position, and when being applied to a position it can give you a specific target and a point where you are wrong and it's time to exit. 
It can also help you to determine when a wave of price action is ending so your stops can be tightened and you can be alert for any reversals in the price action.

Thanks
Brad


----------



## Bobby (16 March 2009)

Frank D said:


> This is why EW is illusory to the majority because each entry taken is unique the individual trader and then curve fitted to suit the methodology, resulting in different counts and wave structures and confusion based on an individuals interpretation of the trend…..
> 
> .




Frank , 
Thats why I have moved on from EW , *Interpretation ,* seems No two experts or the rest of us can come up with the same count ??


----------



## CanOz (16 March 2009)

Bobby said:


> Frank ,
> Thats why I have moved on from EW , *Interpretation ,* seems No two experts or the rest of us can come up with the same count ??




You know, almost everyday i check out Franks Thread, with interest. I am amazed at how uncluttered it is, no C**kh**ds to clutter it up. Lets him present his methods quite clearly. Even i can start to catch on a little.

It would be polite to let Nick have the same stage.

But alas, not to be.

CanOz


----------



## Bobby (17 March 2009)

CanOz said:


> It would be polite to let Nick have the same stage.
> 
> But alas, not to be.
> 
> CanOz



Thats a bit rough  
Lets see what scintillating analysis comes up  ```````

Imbue me please.


----------



## tech/a (17 March 2009)

Well done people youve just stuffed up another thread.

You've been given the opportunity to learn from one of the true educators in this country,who has offered his teachings here for gratis.

Your inability to grasp the analysis and in particular its application is *WHY* Radge started the thread in the first place.

The guys education has made me a lot of $$s----Around $6500 on CBA in the last few days alone.
Best you *PAY* for the education in *my view *just like I do!


----------



## johenmo (17 March 2009)

tech/a said:


> Well done people youve just stuffed up another thread.




Looks that way.

A lot of you have forgotten more than I have learned.  And I recall many posts saying that there is no "one true way" - I have to develop my own system, expectancy, etc etc..  Most importantly I read 2 things over and over again 
1)what works for one person won't necessarily work for another, and
2) there is no holy grail.

Therefore, using some logic, just as there are supporters, there are detractors.  If I don't use EW doesn't mean it's wrong. Maybe there is better, maybe not.

I'd like to hear how EW works, from Nick's view/experience.  If upsets you, then stay out of the thread.  It's conceptual thing.  If I want Nick's power setups, then I have to be prepared to pay for it.

Have a great day...


----------



## nunthewiser (17 March 2009)

well bugga me !

no place for preciousness and emotion in the market i heard 


post or dont post just dont bloody whine about it ........ happy to hear ppls views , happy to question them views , this is a public forum .

i had my say ... it was sorted respectfully and had no arguments 

frank had his say and personally actually agreed with some of his points 

if questioning OR disagreement with some analysis is gunna stop ppl from posting on there OWN thread ........all i can say is harden the fark up!

no offense intended but geeeez im grateful for ALL viewpoints , if all viewpoints / questioning not accepted whats the point of posting in the first place.

.dare say this will cause an uproar as im not here fluffing the OP also but geez guys im grateful for his contributions BUT am also grateful if ppl question the anylasis also


----------



## Cartman (17 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> well bugga me !
> 
> no place for preciousness and emotion in the market i heard
> 
> ...




:iagree:

exactly Nun ---- i notice people give u a bit of stick around here ----- they'd do well to actually take the time to comprehend what u say a lot of the time before kicking their own egos into overdrive --- 

Re this thread -----if its annoying ppl so much Y dont the Mods give Nick a locked thread for his personal analysis ---- and any banter related to the analysis could be done in a complimentary thread ---  

personally im with Nun --- one in all in  ---


----------



## Vito (17 March 2009)

Hi All,
       What gets me is that Nick wanted to post a simple Elliott wave system that people can learn about and decided whether you wanted to use it or not. To put it bluntly if you don't agree  with it or it does suit you. Don't look at the tread and let the people who want get something out it make their own mind up.

Vito


----------



## CanOz (17 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> :
> 
> Re this thread -----if its annoying ppl so much Y dont the Mods give Nick a locked thread for his personal analysis ---- and any banter related to the analysis could be done in a complimentary thread ---




Excellent Idea Cartman, sounds like what they did with Franks thread too.

CanOz


----------



## Cartman (17 March 2009)

CanOz said:


> Excellent Idea Cartman, sounds like what they did with Franks thread too.
> 
> CanOz





gidday Can ------ it would solve the issues some ppl are having i guess ---- 

i actually like it when ppl disagree, or question a method ---- gives a more balanced view methinks ---- so the complimentary 'banter' thread would be the one i'd be reading the most    Cheers


----------



## Frank D (17 March 2009)

CanOz said:


> Excellent Idea Cartman, sounds like what they did with Franks thread too.
> 
> CanOz




My thread isn’t locked, it’s open.

I don’t have a problem with Nick’s analysis or trading.

I was making a comment regarding the separation of his trade set-up and 
the actual methodology of Elliot wave.

I was stating that the methodology was being optimised afterward and 
curve-fitted allowing the him to manage the position. Once in the trade 
E.W was introduced too help forecast where price might go, and if 
successful I’m sure someone else would attribute the success 
to methodology used.

Whilst Nick understands it’s simply a game of numbers:- risk/reward.


Nick’s wasn’t interested in my comment, so I’ll butt out of this thread 
and leave it to others to highlight the practical use of Elliot wave.


----------



## Boggo (17 March 2009)

Its a real pity that someone of the calibre of Nick Radge who was willing to spend time on this forum and help people by displaying *one* way of extracting a profit had a potentially great thread stuffed.
Your loss folks, he will continue to keep making profits for me.

Anyway, gotta go, gotta move my stop up another $1 on CBA 

The thread is already rooted so I may as well post a piccy that is my mental picture of some of the usual suspects who couldn't post a chart or an idea to save themselves


----------



## OzWaveGuy (17 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> gidday Can ------ it would solve the issues some ppl are having i guess ----
> 
> i actually like it when ppl disagree, or question a method ---- gives a more balanced view methinks ---- so the complimentary 'banter' thread would be the one i'd be reading the most    Cheers




There's a big difference between offering constructive help and asking relevant questions v's thread sabotage eg waffling on for the 3rd+ time about why EW doesn't work. There are obvious trolls who simply undermine the 'goodness' of threads in the forum for their own good. I believe many (including the trolls) have great systems and/or strategies that people can benefit from - but their actions in these discussions rate them poorly as individuals.


----------



## Nick Radge (17 March 2009)

No stress here. Been doing it for 23-years I'm not going to change my view on a dime.

I'll post the setups when they come along - they're aren't that many in the ASX at present. I've done 38 odd trades since November compared to 160 odd the prior Jan - Sep. 

CBA moving along week as is ERA which popped out of a wave-4 triangle a week or so ago. 

Focus is on CSL right here.

The good news is that we're starting to see some nice impulsive movements across the board meaning that a pause will offer offer up some a-b-c setups in due course.


----------



## nunthewiser (17 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> No stress here. Been doing it for 23-years I'm not going to change my view on a dime.
> 
> Focus is on CSL right here.
> 
> The good news is that we're starting to see some nice impulsive movements across the board meaning that a pause will offer offer up some a-b-c setups in due course.




Personally think CSL setting itself in a nice little short entry pattern could be wrong  ...... not entering as yet need confirmation . but have placed on watch for now 

thanks

P.S PDN may be worth a squiz with them wave counts .........amongst other forms of anyalasis


----------



## potato (17 March 2009)

nunthewiser: can u post a chart to show us what u mean?


----------



## nunthewiser (17 March 2009)

potato said:


> nunthewiser: can u post a chart to show us what u mean?




no , i have no idea how too , never tried .... easy enuff to bring up a pdn chart , easy enuff to bring up a csl chart ..... different patterns mean different things for different people .. doesent make me correct until afterwards tho 

sorry will leave thread now and stick elswhere


----------



## potato (17 March 2009)

thank you.


----------



## Cartman (17 March 2009)

OzWaveGuy said:


> There's a big difference between offering constructive help and asking relevant questions v's thread sabotage eg waffling on for the 3rd+ time about why EW doesn't work. There are obvious trolls who simply undermine the 'goodness' of threads in the forum for their own good. I believe many (including the trolls) have great systems and/or strategies that people can benefit from - but their actions in these discussions rate them poorly as individuals.





howdy Oz ---- i think what has probably blown this all out of proportion, is not the actual difference in viewpoints, but the *threads* these viewpoints are being aired in

u will have noticed i had not posted on this thread or the other E/W thread since the other day cause i knew i was starting to pees people off a bit  ----- 
to be honest, i didnt realize that E/W was such a contentious issue between users and non users until after id had a little dig --- now i know  Cheers.


----------



## potato (17 March 2009)

cartman: i like lamingtons...


----------



## Cartman (17 March 2009)

potato said:


> cartman: i like lamingtons...




what colour ? 

ps i know when i'm beaten   lol ----


----------



## MichaelD (18 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> In stronger trending environments I would not use a target as in this example.




Nick,

If this thread isn't mortally wounded...

I'm genuinely interested in why you use profit targets. My personal experience (backtesting + walk-forward + actual trading) over multiple time frames from daily to weekly has invariably shown me that the use of a profit target always adversely affects overall system expectancy. It gives you a greater % win rate, but cuts the profits from the really big outliers off at the knees. I have always regretted implementing profit targets even though initially they seemed to make systems easier to trade.


----------



## Nick Radge (18 March 2009)

MichaelD,
I hate using profits targets, but have been doing so since November in these conditions mainly for short side trades. I will be quick to back them off if the daily and weekly trends confirm. 

I agree 100% with everything you say.

Nick


----------



## Nick Radge (18 March 2009)

CBA came within 30c of its target and closed weak. I have stressed to subscribers on many occasions that we need to see wave-iii prove itself by bolting through the wave equality level. If it reverses at it there is scope that we're seeing a 3 wave correction and not a 5-wave impulse.

We have a saying from the trading floor, "_don't be a dick for a tick_" meaning the last 30c is not worth being obsessed about. If the US dips tonight I would be out of CBA and looking for other opportunities.z

WOR looks interesting. 



_
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2009)

Actually closed all trades tonight.
Those 2 were amongst them.


----------



## Bobby (18 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> We have a saying from the trading floor, "_don't be a dick for a tick_" meaning the last 30c is not worth being obsessed about. If the US dips tonight I would be out of CBA and looking for other opportunities.z




Nick ,
How about a chart to show the next count Please .


----------



## Nick Radge (18 March 2009)

There is no change to the count Bobby. It has not been invalidated. You want to be a trader or a theorist?


----------



## Bobby (18 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> There is no change to the count Bobby. It has not been invalidated. You want to be a trader or a theorist?




Thanks for the quick reply , nice answer 
As for if I'm a trader or a theorist ,   exoteric !

:


----------



## Cartman (18 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> There is no change to the count Bobby. It has not been invalidated. You want to be a trader or a theorist?




hi Nick ---- this question is not meant to be either leading or confrontational ---- just curious ---- the run up on CBA has been (on a relative time scale) --- 'exponential' ----------- is the reason y u r considering closing the trade based more on the current market conditions (uncertainty)  or from an E/W pov?? --- Cheers --- 

ps -- from a standard T/A pov, the chart says the exponential run up  has been fast, and even though we look like going into retrace mode, there is 'technically' no reason to shut the trade down ---

for the record --- what is yr trailing stop loss at this point? ----- mine would be $32.25  ------ 

also for the record I am with Tech and would have closed the trade down at $32.64 ---  today ---- u can always re-enter !

Just interested, and not trying to create 'poop' at all  --- Cheers.


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2009)

Cartman

Nick is correct.
He is showing practical Elliott Wave Trading.

I closed my trades today from my own analysis.
Right or wrong.
WOR SUN and CBA all displayed similar technical signals.

It was in appropriate to mention this in this thread.
Apologies.


----------



## beamstas (18 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> for the record --- what is yr trailing stop loss at this point? ----- mine would be $32.25





Cartman buddy 

Would you mind explaining how you came about $32.25?

I'd probably be close to $31.40. That being said im not actually in the trade myself.

Though i'd reassess tomorrow to see if CBA still had anything left. A weak close like this occured right before the top of wave 1


----------



## Cartman (18 March 2009)

tech/a said:


> Cartman
> 
> Nick is correct.
> He is showing practical Elliott Wave Trading.
> ...




Tech --- i actually agree with u shutting the trades down ---- taking a profit and not holding o/night in the current climate makes a lot of sense to me, considering that CBA has had an exponential rise and today had a conspicuous drop from its late Nov- early Dec highs  -----

i'm  a great believer in taking the 'meat' out of a  trade ---- u have done that --- and sleep well 2nite ---- if it goes up another 2% tomorrow who cares ----- just curious on the E/W pov at this point of the trade (no ulterior motives at all in my questions !!)   

ps  with what u've made ---- i assume its yr shout at the local ---- i cant make it to Adelaide, but happy for u to post me a carton of Carlton Cold !!


----------



## Cartman (18 March 2009)

beamstas said:


> Cartman buddy
> 
> Would you mind explaining how you came about $32.25?
> 
> ...





gidday Brad ------ only had a loose eye ball on my initial post, but even after a closer look it is pretty close to the trailor mark for me  (prob closer to a little over $32 ++ ---- sue me if u like  lol --- ) 

-- better to run yr trailors close and not give back too much profit once they are in + territory methinks  ---- 

Logic ----- 50% zone of the last high volume low relative to the previous high volume low --------- this also corresponds to the area just under the long term ( for me -- 12 hour) MA -----   confluence of inputs ----- 

totally discretionary for me, but technically looks sound also ----

personally, i would expect a slight retrace from CBA over the next day or so, followed by a further high b4 another serious fall, but that is all assumption, and to be verified by Momentum ---- the only true indicator which actually leads price action !!!!   

ps bear in mind i am an idiot     lol -----


----------



## Nick Radge (19 March 2009)

The question is whether or not CBA has completed a 3-wave move, which is a true corrective move, or whether it will continue on as a 5-wave impulse. The answer to that question will be how price reacts right at this wave equality level. 

If it reverses, chances are that we've completed a 3-wave correction, or the first part of a larger correction. In both those situations there is no need to hold a long position.

Alternately, if price runs straight through this wave equality level without hesitation then we're being told its a 5-wave impulse and that more upside, including a wave-iv and -v, will be delivered.

The point here is that I am not 'forecasting' what the future holds. I am open to two patterns and will position myself around those patterns as they develop and as they show signs of being validated or invalidated. I come from a trend following so should I run a trailing stop it would be a fairway behind.  background.





_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Nick Radge (19 March 2009)

> Momentum ---- the only true indicator which actually leads price action




Could you explain this?


----------



## wavepicker (19 March 2009)

I agree with Nick here. Given the EW possibilities, it is practical to take profits here or at least PARTIAL profits. Even if this current wave is only the first wavelet of an even larger 3rd wave it will have to correct. 

In time, if Price Action layers @ approximately the high of Wave A or even slightly above it, then the market maybe in a position to move higher. Also key is the type of pattern in the next decline i.e. a 3 wave corrective pattern or overlapping more complex one as opposed to a clear impulse.


Cheers


----------



## Cartman (19 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> The question is whether or not CBA has completed a 3-wave move, which is a true corrective move, or whether it will continue on as a 5-wave impulse. The answer to that question will be how price reacts right at this wave equality level.
> 
> If it reverses, chances are that we've completed a 3-wave correction, or the first part of a larger correction. In both those situations there is no need to hold a long position.
> 
> ...




makes sense thank u --- only difference is id run my trailing stop tight at this point



wavepicker said:


> I agree with Nick here. Given the EW possibilities, *it is practical to take profits here or at least PARTIAL profits*. Even if this current wave is only the first wavelet of an even larger 3rd wave it will have to correct.




agree



Nick, re the Momentum ---- will post something later today -----


----------



## Cartman (19 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Could you explain this?





Nick, I don’t want to get into a useless debate over whether Momentum is seen as a lagging indicator  etc etc ----- when I stated E/W was a lagging indicator it raised some ire in you which was not my intention,  ----  I suspect we wont agree re Momentum either --- 

I cant state anything new that u don’t already know about indicators --- its basically how a trader uses them that may or may not give him an advantage

However, just for the point of the exercise, can I make an analogy for the punters who may be interested ----

If we imagine Momentum being  represented as a motor vehicle ---- it doesn’t get to top speed without starting slowly ---- changing gears --- and accelerating ----- a MV also travels pretty steadily along a flat road, but going down or up hills creates either a gain or loss of momentum ----  

on a chart, the gains/losses in  momentum  patterns can become very obvious (im speaking  FX mainly ) ----  price action can often appear dormant, but the position of that price *relative to the position and length*  of the current Momentum cycle (size of the hill  !!) ----  and the current cycle’s relative position to the preceding cycles (size of the mountain !!)  can be as obvious as all crap --- 

Whether punters use straight Momentum or Stochastics, or a combination of MACD etc etc, it really doesn’t matter ----- its more about pattern recognition --- and being able to front run those patterns for the most effect ----- combining price pattern recognition with Momentum pattern recognition is a pretty robust tool 

My point that Momentum leads price is based on picking cycle reversals  ---- *Divergence* on Momentum  is probably the best indicator for picking that up early (short of  reading the DOM like TH and Mirc do , but as I said im talking FX ---- different beast !!) 

Picking tops and bottoms seems to be  frowned upon by many  for some reason which I don’t understand ----- I mean if yr gona short something, *short it near a top* --- isn’t that the point of the exercise  ---  

PS --- I trade short time frames so all of the above may  be meaningless to someone who trades differently.  

Enuff rambling ------ Cheers.

(ps if this post is considered off topic, no prob with me if its moved to somewhere more appropriate) ------ i heard u say "the bin" Tech    lol --


----------



## nunthewiser (19 March 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> Personally think CSL setting itself in a nice little short entry pattern could be wrong  ...... not entering as yet need confirmation . but have placed on watch for now
> 
> thanks
> 
> P.S PDN may be worth a squiz with them wave counts .........amongst other forms of anyalasis




waves


----------



## Nick Radge (19 March 2009)

A one day move doesn't make a trend. No trade from me either, but still watching.


----------



## IFocus (19 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> Picking tops and bottoms seems to be  frowned upon by many  for some reason which I don’t understand ----- I mean if yr gona short something, *short it near a top* --- isn’t that the point of the exercise  ---
> 
> --




There was a time when I was really clever and went after tops and bottoms mostly treated water and bled slowly not to mention the mental damage.

Market helped me to discover I wasn't that clever and so started trading trends looking for continuation patterns, not as exciting but haven't had a down year since.


----------



## Cartman (19 March 2009)

IFocus said:


> There was a time when I was really clever and went after tops and bottoms mostly treated water and bled slowly not to mention the mental damage.
> 
> Market helped me to discover I wasn't that clever and so started trading trends looking for continuation patterns, not as exciting but haven't had a down year since.




appreciate yr comment IF ---- but one mans trash is another mans treasure so to speak ---

my last 113 trades over the last 10 days --- picking tops and bottoms 

Total Trades: 113 

Short Positions (won %): 69 (89.86%) 

Long Positions (won %): 44 (79.55%) 

Profit Trades (% of total): 97 (85.84%) 

Loss trades (% of total): 16 (14.16%) 

results can be verified if necessary, but i have nothing to prove to anyone here ----- not trying to sell anything after all


----------



## nunthewiser (19 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> A one day move doesn't make a trend. No trade from me either, but still watching.




i am trading them .PDN long entry 3.40 . CSL short entry 33.10

i dont know what your intention was on CSL but thanks for bringing it to my attention . oh totally agree that one move does not make a trend but theres a little more than one move on each stock that does actually define one .

BHP may b e worth a look as a short entry too if your intrested , i have entered this one , dont know if its your cup of tea as yet tho , wouldnt mind your thoughts on it if you get a mo ........ or not as already in my position and viewed the entry with my own special brand of entry criteria which prolly not applicable for this thread


----------



## johnnyg (19 March 2009)

Looking threw the outstanding breakout thread I thought this chart may be useful to this thread in regards to picking tops and bottoms and as Nick puts it - 


> I am open to two patterns and will position myself around those patterns as they develop and as they show signs of being validated or invalidated.




First is a chart of a breakout posted on the 4/2/09 by AlterEgo -







Next is a chart of a possible EW count posted on 4/2/09 by Boggo -






Next is the current chart of DOM. I hope Boggo doesn't think i'm having a go at his analysis which i'm not, I probably would of looked at exiting around those levels on his chart myself. But I think it relates well to the posts in the thread.


----------



## IFocus (19 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> appreciate yr comment IF ---- but one mans trash is another mans treasure so to speak ---
> 
> my last 113 trades over the last 10 days --- picking tops and bottoms
> 
> ...




Not questioning your integrity just stating my own experience in case it strikes a cord.

BTW there are times my win loss gets to 95% at 3RR over some months, at that point  I am a Guru but long term 50% is closer to the mark


----------



## weird (19 March 2009)

Interested in seeing the thread continue as intended, that is practical EW trading.  Not interested in other methods being discussed.  I personally trade a system, which in normal volatility has a 33% win ratio, in extreme volatility it has a 20% win ratio ... however the outcomes over either period are the same ... volatility works both ways ... will I fill this thread with this system ... nah ... just interested in learning what Nick is teaching at the moment.


----------



## Nick Radge (19 March 2009)

113 trades in 10 days...doesn't help my golf swing or fishing time.


----------



## Ashsaege (19 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> appreciate yr comment IF ---- but one mans trash is another mans treasure so to speak ---
> 
> my last 113 trades over the last 10 days --- picking tops and bottoms
> 
> ...




What about your average win/loss ratio?


----------



## Boggo (19 March 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Next is the current chart of DOM. I hope Boggo doesn't think i'm having a go at his analysis which i'm not, I probably would of looked at exiting around those levels on his chart myself. But I think it relates well to the posts in the thread.




Not at all, I was just providing a bit of a heads up the current possibility at the time, ie. it was more of an area where I would be tightening stops rather than buying in.

Below is perhaps an example with JBH, is it a breakout or is it approaching expiry of this run, three different methods with two different software programs playing by three sets of individually proven methods.
Either way its a winner so we tighten the stops and be patient.

(click to expand)


----------



## Cartman (20 March 2009)

IFocus said:


> BTW there are times my win loss gets to 95% at 3RR over some months,




 --- that is guru status!



Ashsaege said:


> What about your average win/loss ratio?




PM me if u r genuinely interested




weird said:


> Interested in seeing the thread continue as intended, that is practical EW trading.  *Not interested in other methods being discussed*.   ... just interested in learning what *Nick is teaching* at the moment.




no probs ---- i'll respect the thread and depart forthwith   ---

i'll leave u with a chart to ponder from an E/W pov ----- how would u label it and how would u trade it ? ---- i took 27 trades on it 2nite --  2 shorts still open as i type ---


----------



## Nick Radge (20 March 2009)

If you've finished discussing your illustrious trading abilities cartman, perhaps we could get back on topic because johnnyg has made an interesting point worth expanding on, indeed it may even be educational for some of us mere mortals.

Let me know when you've finished though...


----------



## Porper (20 March 2009)

Cartman said:


> Total Trades: 113
> 
> Short Positions (won %): 69 (89.86%)
> 
> ...





Very impressive results Cartman.

Let's say you have a meagre win loss ratio of 2:1, that means.....................................
you are a genius 

Forget Elliot wave and struggling to feed my poor children,I need to know your methodology.............Please.


----------



## glenn_r (20 March 2009)

Maybe once Cartman posts his brokers statement to validate the results (preferably in a new thread) we should nominate him for trader of the year, damn fine results there dude.

I hope people let Nick work through his EW analysis without putting up red herrings and maybe start their own threads if they feel the need to explain their method/s.


----------



## beamstas (20 March 2009)

Cart
I'll pm you my IG account name and password

You can take it from there


----------



## tcoates (20 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> If you've finished discussing your illustrious trading abilities cartman, perhaps we could get back on topic because johnnyg has made an interesting point worth expanding on, indeed it may even be educational for some of us mere mortals.
> 
> Let me know when you've finished though...




It seems the choice here is whether to use a target or not???

If you don't use the target and then use some sort of trailing stop, then you have the potential to lose profits. At this point you would kick yourself for not sticking to using a target. In either case, the end-user has to stick to their plan come what may.

In the case of DOM... is it possible the count was wrong? And, is a different count possible that would have left you in the trade until now?

Your thoughts?

Cheers,


----------



## Boggo (20 March 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> perhaps we could get back on topic because johnnyg has made an interesting point worth expanding on, indeed it may even be educational for some of us mere mortals.




Yes please Nick, a very good subject that johnnyg has raised and an area that I have many issues with, ie targets for R/R, stops and exits in general.


----------



## nomore4s (20 March 2009)

Cartman, we get it - you don't like EW. You have now pretty much destroyed 2 EW threads why not leave them in peace and let us poor struggling traders try and learn something. If you want to tell everyone how good you are and how much better your methods are start your own thread or blog or something. 




tcoates said:


> It seems the choice here is whether to use a target or not???
> 
> If you don't use the target and then use some sort of trailing stop, then you have the potential to lose profits. At this point you would kick yourself for not sticking to using a target. In either case, the end-user has to stick to their plan come what may.




This is something I've struggled with for a while - exits. I've come to the conclusion now that I'm never going to be 100% happy with them.
I now have an exit strategy based on the type of trade - ie a swing trade will either have a profit target for a partial or full exit at resistance or a very tight trailing stop, a trend trade will obviously have a wider stop. Sometimes I miss out on extra profits on swing trades and sometimes I give back some profit on trend trades but this is part of trading.
While I don't use EW this is where I think methods like EW can come in handy giving some guide to possible outcomes of the price action and levels where you know you are wrong and it is time to exit.


----------



## Frank D (20 March 2009)

Nomore,

Why don’t you base profit objectives not only at a price target but also 
a Time ‘Target’

I know Nick doesn’t give a rats about Time, but if you are trading a 
Weekly timeframe ie closes on Friday, then often a trend can last into Friday.

That means Price stalls at resistance or reaches your target:- Point A 
and Partial cover. Then you would trade-manage the 2nd parcel based on 
the closure on Friday:- Fail or Break

If  Friday breaks and closes above resistance, this would normally
 lead into a 2nd wave upwards and continuation higher, as resistance 
has failed and has been verified by a  higher timeframe close:- Breakout

Sure partial exit at a first target, but define the 2nd stage of the trend 
by Friday’s close. If Friday closes above resistance there is less reason 
to cover, simply run trailing stops.

Let the market tell you whether the entire trade should be exited 
simply using the Price action that's occurring, and combining a price 
target and then trade management using a time variable and closing price.

On most occassions price will stall and reverse and once again move 
into another consolidating trading pattern. But occassionally you'll get
 a stock, currency or any derivative that just continues.

And if the latter occurs you introduce your larger Secondary and Primary wave counts.

Just a thought.


----------



## Trader Paul (20 March 2009)

Frank D said:


> Nomore,
> 
> Why don’t you base profit objectives not only at a price target but also
> a Time ‘Target’
> ...






..... nice work, Frank ... !~!

have a great weekend

   paul



=====


----------



## johnnyg (20 March 2009)

Being a Practical Elliott Wave thread I would imagine that in the case of CBA and another that Boggo highlighted being JBH that an appropriate stop would be just below the high of Wave a or 1 because one of the main EW rules is that wave 4 can never overlap the top of Wave 1.

If prices dip below $31.20ish in CBA's case and $10.30 in JBH's case it would invalidate the count and point towards a 3 wave correction - A, B, C instead of a 5 wave impulse.

I guess its whether or not your comfortable giving back profit if it turns out to be a 3 wave correction, and if you can be happy to take profits only then see your 3 wave pattern turn into a 5 wave impulse?


----------



## Nero64 (20 March 2009)

Hi Nick, 

Nice thread. I went to your chartist website and you charge $77/ per month for the chartist subscription. 

That is a bit steep. Any chance of doing a deal for us ASF members. 

Also on your blog link you post your current open postions sheet. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but you are down -33000 (40% of equity) on some US trades. Are these long term positions being held. It is dated late Feb so you're probably in front now with the market going up 15% or so:


----------



## Kryzz (21 March 2009)

Would this be a practical short setup? or is it strictly for 3 wave counter trends? Not sure how far a wave 4 is allowed to retrace..EW novice btw.

Thanks,
Shaun.


----------



## Nick Radge (21 March 2009)

Nero64,
The account balance is $50,933 being Net Liquidation Value  - top line - which is marked to market. This Model Account started with $50,000 so a gain of 1.8%.

I assume you know the extent of what my service entails to suggest $77 is too steep.


CSL has now dropped off the radar. There are minimal setups at present basis my setups style. They will return. 

I will answer the DOM extension when I get some time.


----------



## Porper (21 March 2009)

Kryzz said:


> Would this be a practical short setup? or is it strictly for 3 wave counter trends? Not sure how far a wave 4 is allowed to retrace..EW novice btw.
> 
> Thanks,
> Shaun.




Shaun, it looks like a valid set up to me, although I am no Nick Radge. 

Infact this came up on a scan of mine yesterday.The logic behind trading a,b,c set ups is because they generally offer better Risk reward, but AXA would offer a R/R of around 5 from a quick glance, very nice.It's actually a text book Elliot Wave count, not sure what your retracements are on the chart ? I'd be looking at around the 2.20 area for wave 5 to complete.

There is also high volume with closes off their highs as a confirming indicator of sellers being around.

I'd be looking at selling on a break of yesterdays low with a stop above the day before high.Trouble is as AXA is a financial stock you can't short it.


----------



## Kryzz (22 March 2009)

Porper said:


> It's actually a text book Elliot Wave count, not sure what your retracements are on the chart ?
> 
> Hey porper thanks for the reply, the first level is a 25% retracement of the last move higher, i thought that would be the entry level to go short? as per Nicks first post with the CBA chart, however i'm unsure.


----------



## johnnyg (22 March 2009)

Heres a chart of UGL that may be appropriate to the thread.


----------



## johnnyg (22 March 2009)

Sorry guys, chart should read 3.5R not 4.5R.


----------



## 2BAD4U (8 April 2009)

Thanks for the thread Nick.

I've got your book and haven't been too keen to trade EW's yet.  But this has helped a lot.  I entered into TFC a couple of days ago and wondering if anyone else agrees with the setup (ie 25% retrace).

Cheers


----------



## beamstas (8 April 2009)

2BAD4U said:


> Thanks for the thread Nick.
> 
> I've got your book and haven't been too keen to trade EW's yet.  But this has helped a lot.  I entered into TFC a couple of days ago and wondering if anyone else agrees with the setup (ie 25% retrace).
> 
> Cheers




2BAD4U, how did you decide to start the count where you started it?
I am on a school computer so don't have access to a chart.

Looks like that could be the finsh of a larger degree 5 wave pattern coming down with an A-B-C correction

I could be entirely wrong because i can't see a graph 

(If it's not totally ignore this post LOL!)

Brad


----------



## tech/a (8 April 2009)

TFC

My view
The black labelling is mine the Blue AGET's
Agets current "C" and 4 will get re labelled.


----------



## Boggo (8 April 2009)

And just to give the dudes with no method some fodder  I have attached another similiar/slightly different view.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## Lachlan6 (8 April 2009)

I would suggest your wave 4 is out of proportion with the preceeding move tech/a. It could still be the case however I think the previous move lower has terminated in five waves and the ensuing upward correction is now taking place. After five waves down I would be looking at a grind higher into the $1.10 - $1.20 area. Also note the bearish divergence in the MACD with the two recent peaks suggesting short term downside looks imminent.


----------



## tech/a (8 April 2009)

Lachlan.

You could well be right.

So we both agree on a correction.
Magnitude of it is the question.


----------



## Lachlan6 (8 April 2009)

tech/a said:


> Lachlan.
> 
> You could well be right.
> 
> ...




No worries tech. Let's see how price action in the stock transpires. This is one of the best and most fundamental points of EW; the characteristic of price. Even if we don't all agree on the exact count, we all know that action since late Nov last year has been corrective and we can take a lot from that.

Cheers


----------



## johnnyg (13 April 2009)

Just an update on the UGL chart I posted on 22/3/09.

Pretty self explanatory I think, prices didn't quite retrace as far I thought. A better entry would of been a buy when prices had swung 25% off the low as Nick posted in his CBA trade.

FMG looks like it could be setting itself up for a similar move. Looks like we might of completed a larger degree wave B down however the wave equality doesn't look quite right so id be inclined to wait and see if prices push lower in the coming days.


----------



## ricky (26 April 2009)

Hi all,

I'm really interested to know what traders use to scan the market for EW setups,software or manual analysis, really keen to find out quick way to scan the ASX 200-300 stocks.

Thanks
Rick


----------



## salsem (10 May 2009)

hi
mi view DJIA daily

CIAO.salsem


----------



## Boggo (10 May 2009)

Just a follow up to post #94.
It took a while but it almost got there.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## 2BAD4U (11 May 2009)

Thanks for reminding me Boggo!!  Shame I was running a tight stop on this one and got stopped out only to then watch it hit the target I had set.   What was it that Ned Kelly said before he was hung........


----------



## Boggo (11 May 2009)

2BAD4U said:


> Thanks for reminding me Boggo!!  Shame I was running a tight stop on this one and got stopped out only to then watch it hit the target I had set.   What was it that Ned Kelly said before he was hung........




I wasn't holding it but I would have been stopped out around the 88c area if I had been, an entry around 80c and a wider stop @ 84.5c would have been ideal (in hindsight  ).
Cheers


----------



## Boggo (13 May 2009)

BOQ, possible ABC Wave 2

(click to enlarge)


----------



## skc (13 May 2009)

Boggo said:


> BOQ, possible ABC Wave 2
> 
> (click to enlarge)




Nice one Boggo. $8 is around 50% retracement from wave 1, $7.50 would be 61.8%. 

One to watch definitely.


----------



## johnnyg (13 May 2009)

Picked this one up last aswell. Ive got a buy @ 8.34 with a stop under yesterdays low. Excellent R:R in this trade, approx 1:7 from memory as a minimum.


----------



## beamstas (13 May 2009)

Boggo said:


> Just a follow up to post #94.
> It took a while but it almost got there.
> 
> (click to enlarge)




Boggo
What program is this?
Or did you put those boxes there yourself?

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Boggo (13 May 2009)

Software in those posts is MTPredictor, points are automatically generated.

Some blog examples on short term trading here by the developer...
http://mtpredictor.blogspot.com/


----------



## Boggo (13 May 2009)

skc said:


> One to watch definitely.




Agree, I am a bit wary of the banks just at the moment with the shape of the XAO.


----------



## skc (13 May 2009)

Boggo said:


> Agree, I am a bit wary of the banks just at the moment with the shape of the XAO.




Agree. Sub $8 more than likely. Today's action not brillant so far. 



johnnyg said:


> Picked this one up last aswell. Ive got a buy @ 8.34 with a stop under yesterdays low. Excellent R:R in this trade, approx 1:7 from memory as a minimum.




Was it you who got the fill at $8.34?


----------



## Boggo (13 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Boggo
> What program is this?
> Or did you put those boxes there yourself?
> 
> ...




Example of a current (ASX CFD's) short based on the auto routine.

Version 1 of both eyeballs is still the most reliable software and always has the final say :blover:

(click to enlarge)


----------



## johnnyg (13 May 2009)

skc said:


> Was it you who got the fill at $8.34?




Not me skc, still only paper trading atm.


----------



## skc (13 May 2009)

Anyone like to analyse this from a EW perspective?

NHC - This is one coal stock that hasn't flied as much as some others, but also didn't fall nearly as hard. I have put forth 2 scenarios. Is the current down more forming wave 2-C, or wave 3-ii?

P.S. I hold at the moment and simply gone for a 6 day countback stop from the recent top.


----------



## johnnyg (13 May 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Picked this one up last aswell. Ive got a buy @ 8.34 with a stop under yesterdays low. Excellent R:R in this trade, approx 1:7 from memory as a minimum.




In and out today  Must learn to be patient and not rush setups.


----------



## Boggo (14 May 2009)

RIC, possible ABC wave 2 pattern ?
Positive finish in a down day.

(click to enlarge)


----------



## johnnyg (14 May 2009)

Whats the bottom indicator you have there Boggo? Do you use it as confirmation of a trend change?

Check out PRG, looks interesting.


----------



## Boggo (14 May 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Whats the bottom indicator you have there Boggo? Do you use it as confirmation of a trend change?
> 
> Check out PRG, looks interesting.




Moving average 1 is a moving average of a Stochastic RSI and moving average 2 is a moving average of moving average 1.
Combined they seem to work well with basic Elliott Wave turning points.

The only similarity between PRG and RIC (post #115) is at a quick glance overall pattern and they may look the same, a closer look at the last bar on each is what separates them, at the end of today anyway.

Just my 

(click to enlarge)


----------



## johnnyg (14 May 2009)

Yes of course, PRG still has a little way to go as of yet, one to put on the watch list though. Check out the possible wave equality of wave a and to where possibly wave c could terminate (middle of 50-61.8% retracement).

Cheers ill have to have a look into the MA's.

John


----------



## Boggo (21 May 2009)

Its slow moving today, closed at 1.26 but going in the right direction...

(click to enlarge)


----------



## DaveMac (4 January 2010)

Hey guys, no posts since May?  Thought I'd try and revive the thread with a chart of PRY.


Wave 3 was 161.8% of Wave 1.  
Wave 4 was just under 38.2% of Wave 3.
Thought the a-b-c of Wave 4 might be a sweet set-up, for entry at a close above $6.09.
Possible Wave 5 between $6.80 and $7.50 - use your own exit rules to let it ride
Pattern fail (stop loss) if close below $5.75, a retrace back into Wave 4

Obviously this is not a recommendation, follow your own trading plan, etc etc.


----------



## ectoplasm (5 January 2010)

Hi DaveMac,

I am not much into Elliott wave, but I like PRY set up ~ for the reasons stated (as much as I understand them) & the more importantly the chart pattern.

Will follow progress on the PRY thread

Daily chart: Looks like a bit of consolidation is in order..


----------



## DaveMac (5 January 2010)

Hey Ectoplasm,

Nice!  I use trend lines too.  

Not sure how others actually trade the Elliott Wave setups - possibly a single bar entry (buy at the top of the bar, stop at the low of the bar) would be used as a super low risk setup. 

Perhaps Elliot Wave traders could be coaxed back to comment on setups? 

Sorry this one for BEN is super late, I wasn't going to post it but should still hit at least $10.81 (Wave 5 being around 61.8% of Wave 3) after a brief consolidation at previous highs.  Again, wave 3 was 161.8% of Wave 1.


----------



## Boggo (5 July 2011)

Some good info on here http://thepatternsite.com/abc.html

and on here http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets.htm


----------



## pavilion103 (5 July 2011)

Boggo said:


> Some good info on here http://thepatternsite.com/abc.html
> 
> and on here http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets.htm




Thanks Boggo. I'll take a look. 
I moved my post to the other Elliott Wave thread just incase this thread was only for practical application. Seems it doesn't matter. 

Thanks


----------

