# SIG - Sigma Healthcare



## PorscheACE (6 October 2006)

*Sigma Pharmaceuticals (SIP)* today proposed a takeover bid for *Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API). * Sigma is already the biggest pharmaceutical wholesaler and due to its recent merger with Arrow Pharmaceuticals (one of the largest generic pharmaceutical drug makers/distributors in the country) is in a perfect position to succeed. API own major brands like Priceline, Priceline Pharmacy, Chemworld, Soul Pattinson Pharmacy and not to mention they are the 2nd largest pharmaceutical wholesaler in Australia. 

Personally think its a monster move...lets see what happens. Any thoughts people? Anyone holding either stock?

Not sure how accurate everything below is but definetely a takeover bid:

*Sigma Offers A$566 Million for Australian Pharma (Update2) *  

By Vesna Poljak

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Australia's biggest contract maker of drugs, offered to buy Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., the nation's largest drugs wholesaler, for A$566 million ($422 million). 

Sigma may bid A$2.20 a share for Australian Pharma stock, the Melbourne-based company said in a statement to today, without making a formal proposal. 

Buying Australian Pharma would give Sigma an extra 14 Australian distribution centers serving about 2,500 customers, pharmacy brands including Priceline, Soul Pattinson and Chemworld, and control of about 215 drugstores in New Zealand. 

``Merging the two companies would create significant shareholder value,'' Sigma said, citing ``strategic and cost synergies.'' 

Shares of Australian Pharma, which traded above the offer price at A$2.36 in Sydney today, have gained 45 percent since a record low of A$1.63 on Aug. 22, when they resumed following a six-week suspension because the company couldn't account for a A$17.2 million hole in its accounts. 

Sigma approached Australian Pharma's board, offering cash or stock, it said in the statement. It wants to review Australian Pharma's accounts. 

(SOURCED http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aNkb2rOApP8g&refer=australia)


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## Prospector (7 October 2006)

I inherited SIP when they merged with Sigma a while back.  Sigma had been doing OK.  It has had its ups and downs since then but has recently been progressing in recent times.  I guess it is a matter of bigger is better, but I really dont know too much about API


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## PorscheACE (7 October 2006)

API has gone through some hell recently! But it all makes sense for SIP to takeover API...3 Major pharmaceutical wholesalers in Australia...Sigma, Mayne and API...Mayne getting sick of the wholesale game and API just cant do it well...so lets see what happens...Sigma's been around forever so Im sure they will be ok...

Has anyone heard more on the takeover?


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## mark_au (14 March 2007)

Hi Guys

is it just me or since arrow and sigma merged the sigma price hasnt really done anything, Id have thought that with the synergies of the merger, they would be powering ahead.. is SIP broken :-(..... or does it have a future ??


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2007)

mark_au said:


> Hi Guys
> 
> is it just me or since arrow and sigma merged the sigma price hasnt really done anything, Id have thought that with the synergies of the merger, they would be powering ahead.. is SIP broken :-(..... or does it have a future ??




Somethings up this morning, in a trading halt ? why.
Garpal


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## wto23 (13 April 2007)

It wasn't that big a deal after all. I was anticipating a takeover.
Was it really necessary to have a trading halt??

Attached is the announcement.


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## Nicks (8 May 2007)

Ive recently bought in heavy to SIP. Why:

- Are the biggest player in the domestic generic drug market and intent on growing this organically further.

- Australia and the Western society is increasingly relying on pills, both prescription, non and therapeutic.

- They have good solid brands.

- Many of the drugs that boomed in the last 10-20 years are out or coming out of patent, and SIP will be making many of these.

- The Insitutions are Bullish on SIP.

- It pays a nice Dividend. This will give a nice bonus whie also is indicative of a stocks capital gains that follow.

- Management are now fully free to manage and grow the business.

- It has not yet recognised a strong share price gain to reflect all of the above, therefore expect this to come very soon.

Thanks


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## quarky (8 May 2007)

Nicks said:


> Ive recently bought in heavy to SIP. Why:
> 
> - Are the biggest player in the domestic generic drug market and intent on growing this organically further.
> 
> ...




good reasons.
but i'm not listening to them. why?
because i bought them last week, already.
 
@ $2.57


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## quarky (9 May 2007)

a lot of stocks are down today.
but SIP has open lower, ie. $2.52
so, it's on the slide (?)

wondering if there's going to be announcements about this stock


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## wto23 (17 May 2007)

With the market strong today SIP again saw a considerable drop and with huge volume.
Anybody here shed some light on this?

This is stock I've been watching for a while and one of which I see strength and a good defensive stock to dip into.


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## jchan86 (18 May 2007)

i just moved in as well 

nice 2.40 support level.  the key areas revolve around patents and IP

examine what happened in the drug/pharmeceutical industry about 15-20 years ago.... interesting times ahead


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## Jikx (20 May 2007)

I just got in on it too.. either there's some information leaking, or the market is not taking into account the huge block-buster drugs that are going generic in the future..


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## Kieran (6 June 2007)

What price did you get in at Jikx? Current price is $2.41, I'm tossing up whether to get into SIP or increase my tiny holding in Lynas (LYC)


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## Jikx (7 June 2007)

$2.42, so I'm 1c down per share. I don't think SIP is a short term holding, definitely medium to long term.


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## reece55 (7 June 2007)

Jikx said:


> $2.42, so I'm 1c down per share. I don't think SIP is a short term holding, definitely medium to long term.




And here we have it, my all time favorite quote........ 

Personally, SIP is looking a bit sick to me. I actually traded this one a few weeks back for a potential break into a wave 1 (don't have the count with me, it's at work), but got stopped out for a small loss. For what it's worth, to me it has broken support and in the short to medium term, the least path to resistance is down.......

However, I wish you the best in your trade. But I wouldn't let a stock dictate the timing of your holding - rather ask yourself the question what kind of an investor are you - long or short term? If you are indeed long term, review the chart, set your stop and run with it........

Cheers


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## smoothsatin (7 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> And here we have it, my all time favorite quote........
> 
> Personally, SIP is looking a bit sick to me. I actually traded this one a few weeks back for a potential break into a wave 1 (don't have the count with me, it's at work), but got stopped out for a small loss. For what it's worth, to me it has broken support and in the short to medium term, the least path to resistance is down.......
> 
> ...




Hi guys,

SIP could be ready for a turnaround, may have double bottomed at 2.25 last week, and very strong volume since. If it does break that downward sloping resistence, or at least has its next low higher than 2.25, could be a good time to get in........ideally would like to see continued volume and breaking of resistence first....


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## Jikx (7 June 2007)

You guys love technical analysis don't you! Doesn't really do it for me however. I just like the company because it has substantial exposure to the generics business and there will be quite steady growth in that area for quite some time. If there are no shock earnings reports, the downside risk will be very limited.


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## reece55 (7 June 2007)

Jikx said:


> You guys love technical analysis don't you! Doesn't really do it for me however. I just like the company because it has substantial exposure to the generics business and there will be quite steady growth in that area for quite some time. If there are no shock earnings reports, the downside risk will be very limited.




Yep, absolutely love it, but personally thats because I find i trade a hell of a lot better with it, just my view.

My accounting view on this stock - these guys have performed super well for a very long time, they have the lions share of the generic drug sector and a chemist chain to distribute the drugs, so long term it will perform. All areas of fianancial performance gets a tick. They are however a little expensive P/E wise, especially considering that I would have thought it will be hard for them to grow without expanding via M&A activity and they will pay a high premium in this market to do it.

Always bare in mind however that fundamentals and technicals can have a significant time lag and other risks can affect stocks. If you are a fundamentalists, then this is a great stock to be in - I just don't like it short term....

Cheers


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## quarky (28 June 2007)

argh...Sigma goes down to $2.14 today.  i bought it at $2.50 
guess i'll have to sell it for a loss for tax-time. 


Sigma won’t force Symbion deal
Wednesday, June 27, 2007


Sigma Pharmaceuticals will not pursue legal action to force the Symbion Health board of directors to consider an offer for the company's consumer health and pharmacy business that was lodged after a bidding deadline. 


Readers of the Fair Margin column on this site were told that Sigma was unlikely to pursue legal action. 

Fair Margin noted that a Sigma bid for Symbion Health's business would face a series of hurdles, including Australian Competition and Consumer Commission approvals and the possibility of defections from members of the Symbion pharmacy banners, Chemmart and Terry White Chemists. 

With Sigma not pursuing its late bid for the Symbion Health businesses, a $2.8 billion by Healthscope will now be assessed by the ACCC. 

Healthscope wants to acquire Symbion Health's medical services businesses and its takeover offer involves the on-sale of the consumer health and pharmacy business for $1.085 billion to private equity firms, Ironbridge Capital and Archer Capital. 

One of the features of this site, Fair Margin provides a weekly commentary on retail events and issues, often providing readers with the news behind the news.


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## quarky (3 July 2007)

even more woeful news for me,.. share price is at $1.76
(i'm losing 30%!) 



Shares in Sigma Pharmaceuticals have tanked in opening trade after the company cut its full-year earnings forecast. In a bid to soften the news, Sigma also announced an on-market share buyback of nearly 10 percent of its issued shares. Sigma said it expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to increase by 5 percent for the full year ending Jan. 31, 2008. It expected underlying net profit after tax for 2007/08 to be in line with the previous financial year, excluding the interest impact associated with the buyback. Shares in Sigma have tumbled 15.33% to $1.79 and a half cents.


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## CanOz (3 July 2007)

reece55 said:


> Yep, absolutely love it, but personally thats because I find i trade a hell of a lot better with it, just my view.
> 
> My accounting view on this stock - these guys have performed super well for a very long time, they have the lions share of the generic drug sector and a chemist chain to distribute the drugs, so long term it will perform. All areas of fianancial performance gets a tick. They are however a little expensive P/E wise, especially considering that I would have thought it will be hard for them to grow without expanding via M&A activity and they will pay a high premium in this market to do it.
> 
> ...




I love it when an accountant uses T/A!

Great call Reese, i can't read your short list, but was SIP on it?

For those who are longer term hopers...err i mean holders...look for some absorption volume, maybe the smart money will come back in where they think its undervalued.

Cheers,


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## Awesomandy (3 July 2007)

CanOz said:


> For those who are longer term hopers...err i mean holders...look for some absorption volume, maybe the smart money will come back in where they think its undervalued.




Looks like we might have found it - 40 orders of total 594,097 quantity @ 1.70. It is currently at 1.72.

Guess I misread it earlier today - bought them in at 1.82.


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## reece55 (3 July 2007)

quarky said:


> even more woeful news for me,.. share price is at $1.76
> (i'm losing 30%!)
> 
> 
> ...




Quarky
I do feel your pain (we have all been there, definitely me included) , but as I said previously, SIP was looking sick.

The one thing to remember here is that news travels in the direction of the trend - it had been under performing for so long and low and behold, we have a profit downgrade. Normally, unless there is an unforeseen event, the chart will reflect the issues surrounding the business, indeed it usually is a leading indicator.

All the best
Reece


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## Nicks (4 July 2007)

Interestingly Huntley's had a Buy recommendation on SIP prior to yesterdays news, with High Value and Income. They now say since yesterdays news it is a Hold.

I dont think the news was significant enough (read it carefully, it actually was not really bad) that if they had a Buy at > $2.20 to $2.35 before yesterday, that it now isnt even better value at a 30% discount to the previous share price. Given the returns I like this stock even more at this price plus there could be some consolidation in the industry coming or perhaps a private equity bid at these low prices.

In other words, the share price has dropped 30% - far more than warranted, so it is a better buy now than before, and before it was good buying.

So rather than just say this, I put faith in my reason and bought some more.

.... of course all in my own opinion and do your own research....


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## Nicks (4 July 2007)

quarky said:


> even more woeful news for me,.. share price is at $1.76
> (i'm losing 30%!)
> 
> 
> ...





Exactly - it is still forecasting an increase! one of those situations where investors expected more, and sold when it didnt meet the expectation. Still not really bad news funnily enough.


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## Awesomandy (5 July 2007)

9 brokers/analysts have now rerated SIP after the drop, with the mean being around $2.03 in 12 months time (the range generally being 1.89 - 2.10). Even so, most of them have recommended a hold, and only about 2 or 3 have recommended a buy. Personally, I am leaning towards a buy, although only in small quantities. If they meet their earnings target, the upside is looking pretty bright. But then, given their current performance and profit downgrade, I'm not quite sure how they are going to meet the target.

Note: I am currently a holder (and so is a friend of mine who has lost 25% of his money on this)


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## FinalFantasy (16 July 2007)

It looks pretty good to me right now, but it might be a bit slow to get up to $2; other shares probably do better I think @_@


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## Nicks (16 July 2007)

At this P/E is it not a darn good deal? I mean there is actually not really any downside now, thats already done. Just upside and a good dividend payout ratio to boot and potential industry consolidation in a drug indulgent western society. Perhaps we will see (or have justed started to see) an albeit quite delayed bounce, my eta $2 by Aug minimum.


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## Mutley (1 August 2007)

I bought in at $1.73 on the strength of coverage in The Intelligent Investor. The stock has been strong this past week despite much market uncertainty, so I think the worst is behind us and there's a level of bargain-hunting activity sustaining SIP.

Hold on...it could get ugly out there :


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## Nicks (13 August 2007)

I think it just needs to break through this 1.70 - 1.80 barrier.

Lets face it, there is the most minute risk left of any downside left with this stock, but plenty of upside. I suspect the next good news or next set of financials will see this stock set off for above $2 again very quickly. 

In the meantime i'll happily hold whilst getting dividends, 10% of the stock bought back increasing my stocks EPS and enjoy the gradual capital gains until the next financials come out and we see the result of this large Buy Back, which inevitably will be an increase in EPS.


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## jet328 (13 August 2007)

Nicks said:


> 10% of the stock bought back increasing my stocks EPS and enjoy the gradual capital gains until the next financials come out and we see the result of this large Buy Back, which inevitably will be an increase in EPS.




How are they funding the buyback?

If a buy back is funded through spare cash, yes EPS will increase. However, if they borrow the money to fund the buyback then obviously there are interest costs.

Cheers


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## Nicks (14 August 2007)

jet328 said:


> How are they funding the buyback?
> 
> If a buy back is funded through spare cash, yes EPS will increase. However, if they borrow the money to fund the buyback then obviously there are interest costs.
> 
> Cheers




Spare cash from what I can remember, check out the announcement about a month ago.
That being said sometimes it is good to buy with interest as well to establish a target D/E ratio for tax benefits and funding projects that give a +NPV.


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## quarky (15 August 2007)

markets have tumbled.
i don't even know whether to hold SIP or any other stock for that matter.
bought SIP @ $2.55
now it's at $1.60+


maybe i should put a deposit down on a house.


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## quarky (16 August 2007)

SIP just dropped another $0.19 (11%) today, to $1.465
damn!


i haven't been able to find why this is happening?


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## Nicks (16 August 2007)

The Friecking CFO chose today as the day to resign from SIP. Coward and insensitive. What I mean is that he didnt do shareholders any justice at all.


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## mark_au (22 August 2007)

Nicks said:


> The Friecking CFO chose today as the day to resign from SIP. Coward and insensitive. What I mean is that he didnt do shareholders any justice at all.




Yea great timing, double whammy, market going splato and him resigning
so i bought some more LOL

mid - long term it would be logical that the business should do well, but geeze they need to get their finger out


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## Alien (26 August 2007)

At least the price fall has been good for the share buyback. Company is soaking plenty up. Good value at these prices IMO.


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## Awesomandy (26 August 2007)

I've given up on this a little while back. Although I agree that there is potential for the mid - long term, surely, there have to be better opportunities elsewhere while this mob sort themselves out.


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## Nicks (20 September 2007)

Mr Elmo aint doing a good job imo. Pretty disappointing today. Damn good business but not being managed too well. I want to see his resignation and see the back of him and his CFO. I'd be eyeing this one off now if I was someone interested in the business.

Anyway 3c dividend is pretty good and looks like the future does hold well. Would prefer fresh management team to capitalise on the good fundamentals and market position to take Sigma into the future.


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## Awesomandy (25 September 2007)

It's down to $1.32 at the moment. Definitely in a breakdown mode. After the half-year profit announcement a few days ago, the only way it has gone is down. Surely, heads will have to roll soon if this company is to be resurrected.


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## Nicks (27 September 2007)

Too many analysts dropping their value of SIP and most saying they dont believe Sigma will even meet its next target.

Im struggling to see any upside to Sigma in the next 12 months, after that no doubt it could pick up.

Im all out for 1.39. Nasty loss but oh well, cant win them all. Just gotta win most.


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## Miner (28 September 2007)

Nicks
I tend to agree what you did .
I was holding it for long time and then shed it at 1.4 after making good losses. But that is fine and every time winning is not a game.
Ironically Huntley made a U turn to change its prediction from Buy to HOld within 24 hours.
Now there is another broker said speculative buy. That is not on technical ground but assuming someone will take it over.

One bird in hand is better than two birds in bush.

Regards


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## Whiskers (23 October 2007)

Can anyone explain why SIP pre open sales are quoted so high above yesterdays close on no news?




> Sigma Pharmaceuticals Limited
> (Trading Status: PRE_OPEN)
> As at 23/10/2007 9:16:41 AM
> Prev. Close
> ...


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## Awesomandy (23 October 2007)

It's still early days. Wait till around 9:58, and see what we have left. I would guess that the open will be much closer to yesterday's close.


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## rhen (1 November 2007)

Contrarians, what do you think of this chart?
Certainly worth putting SIP on a watchlist?
This dog may, just may, show signs of coming to life, technically at least.
Linda (director) bought 34000 3 weeks ago.
Nielsen indices are also encouraging.
I have a small (long suffering) parcel...but this is a positive break above $1.505...but not for the faint-hearted!

have a great day,
rhen


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## Rainmaker2000 (1 November 2007)

I'm a bit of contrarian but have managed to stop myself getting tempted on SIP......I just think for all the past belief that its a 'growth stock' and now a value play, I just think its a pretty average company which has already grown to dominate a market which remains competitive, not helped by govt. meddling...it likes issuing shares to make acquisitions and looks to be a capital intensive business....if its worth something, The Intelligent Investor rates it, so its obviously not far from its value


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## nomore4s (6 March 2008)

The chart of SIP has some interesting signs appearing.

Some signs of accumulation appearing? But I will stress there is alot more work to happen yet, as it is still in a down trend! But $1.30 looks to have established strong support.

Some tests coming up for SIP. While it is building a base atm, it still needs to break its down trend and with the sp now approaching the supply line of the trendline we should get an idea of the strength behind the stock and how much supply is still around.

I'm now guessing we will see some sort of quick probe lower maybe even a terminial shakeout to catch stops and test supply. Then I would like to see some higher highs and lows and maybe even a SOS, but if we do get some sort of rally we could also get another test of $1.30 before seeing a SOS.

Early days but one for the watchlist.

This of course could all get blown out of the water with a serious break of $1.30, then it would be a good short!

I think SIP reports results at the end of the month as well, which may provide more info on the future direction of this stock.

Charts attached.


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## nomore4s (24 March 2008)

Quick update.

Prices broke through the strong support a few times last week but managed to close at $1.30 or higher till Thur when the close was very weak, with 1.9mil shares going through at $1.225 at the closing auction.

With results due out tomorrow I'm not filled with confidence that they'll be positive after Thursdays close, someone desperately wanted out before the long weekend (and maybe the results being released on Tues).

But I was looking for some sort of terminal shakeout, the response will be telling imo.

Will try to update in more depth later in the week.


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## nomore4s (3 April 2008)

Okay prices are continuing to probe lower and obviously did not even have a good attempt at breaking the down trend, but what still has me interested is the volume surge which has accompanied the break below $1.30.

While supply still well and truly has the upper hand, there appears to be some strength in the background atm. Who is doing the buying?

The big question is will the strength in the background remain or will it be completely overwhelmed? There appears to be alot of supply around atm, but the vol surge is at least showing that the other side is interested in coming to the party imo.

The conviction of both sides may well be tested in the coming days/weeks.

Please keep in mind what I stated a few posts back that it is early days atm and this stock still in a long downtrend and has plenty of work to do to confirm there is accumulation going on, it could be a phase of re-distribution or nothing at all, but the character of the chart does *suggest* some accumulation to me (I've been known to be wrong quite often though, lol)

I haven't taken a position yet.

For those who have been following Motorways Wyckoff thread you may (or may not) find some similarities between the SIP chart and the early stages of the CEY chart posted in that thread. While the patterns aren't identical (eg the probe lower with SIP) imo some of the characteristics are the same(CEY probably has a more "text book" look to it though as it's in hindsight), and it will give an idea on the sort of timeframe and magnitude of move I'm looking for if accumulation is taking place. The CEY chart will also provide some insight into the signs I'm looking for to confirm accumulation is happening.


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## nomore4s (3 April 2008)

Strong day for the overall market and also a good day for SIP.

Have attached a chart with the thrusts down since Dec 06.

The ease of movement has very obvioulsy slowed since around July 07 - between points 5 - 7. The thrusts down have slowed considerably and the last thrust down has taken longer than the rest for not much new ground.

And look at the volume needed to push the price below $1.30. Effort & Result.
The next few days will give more insight into whether yesterdays high vol was demand or not but todays action seems to suggest it was.

This may not be the end of this current wave down as I would like to see a better rally than 1 day but the next rally and reaction will reveal more insight (character).

What I see atm is -
Slowing of momentum to the downside - shortening of thrusts (has yet to go up though)
The volume that has come in, has slowed the descent. Ease of movement - line of least resistence revealing itself?

Supply & Demand
Effort & Result
Cause & Effect


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## reece55 (3 April 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Strong day for the overall market and also a good day for SIP.
> 
> Have attached a chart with the thrusts down since Dec 06.
> 
> ...




Jeez, it's been a tough run for Sigma.....

Once upon ago this was a stock that warranted a hefty premium, with high returns on equity and strong EPS growth... Then the PBS was revamped and it looks like Sigma was the net loser in the equation....

Whilst the technicals look very weak here, substantial holders appear to be popping up quickly and volume in this latest move down is extreme.... Perhaps a few people are now throwing away there underperforming stocks...

Funnymental back of envelope valuation supports a price of 1.24, with NPAT only growing with inflation in perpetuity..... My view would be that this is a market with high barriers to entry and 3% in perpetuity is an extremely conservative approach.... 10% growth gives 2.48, so good risk reward from a numbers perspective... But just look at the attached weekly chart since the acquisition of Arrow........ ooooooooooowwwwww.....

Cheers


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## quarky (14 April 2008)

damn...
today, SIP dropped to $1.065

and this is a stock that i bought quite a few, about a year ago, at $2.50 

i hope this doesn't collapse One.Tel style or there's some kind of Wollongong Council managerial undertable-dealings.

don't know what to do. buy more into it, given its risk/reward characteristics...or sell and move on.
decisions, decisions...


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## Nicks (14 April 2008)

I bought at 2.20, only to keep buying more as it went down. Kept buying to about 1.70 until it announced that nasty report which sent shares downward. Sold out at 1.39. Glad I did now.

Moral of story - sometimes buying as it goes down doesnt work. If i'd kept doing it i'd be even worse off now.

SIP is one share whose story really disappoints.


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## Julia (14 April 2008)

quarky said:


> damn...
> today, SIP dropped to $1.065
> 
> and this is a stock that i bought quite a few, about a year ago, at $2.50
> ...



Why would you buy more of something which is already losing you money?
Looks like a lot more risk than reward imo.


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## nomore4s (14 April 2008)

Will look at posting an updated chart when I get time.

Volume has dropped off and the price has fallen with no support, and the decent now appears to be picking up speed again.
To me it looks like whatever demand that was providing support in the higher vol bars has disappeared.

Unless we see some demand (support) come in for the stock it's not looking good.

Downtrend remain well and truly intact


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## quarky (16 April 2008)

Julia said:


> Why would you buy more of something which is already losing you money?
> Looks like a lot more risk than reward imo.




i think you're replying to *Nicks* post and mistakenly quoting me.
*Nicks* bought more as it went down. not me.

i only bought SIP once (and a pretty big sum of it) about a year ago.
it's sitting at well over half that value.

don't know what to do....  
i haven't had much luck with the ASX, so am holding off.


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## reece55 (16 April 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Will look at posting an updated chart when I get time.
> 
> Volume has dropped off and the price has fallen with no support, and the decent now appears to be picking up speed again.
> To me it looks like whatever demand that was providing support in the higher vol bars has disappeared.
> ...




Hrmm.... I'm not sure... chart wise it is looking terrible, but substantial shareholders are turning up left right and center..... Funymetantal base case scenario supports a substantially higher valuation than SIP currently commands...

Normally, I would say this one is doomed because of the chart, but I just think this may be an extremely good buying point...... I have no technical basis to draw this conclusion however... Anyone here have an insight into the industry at the moment...

Cheers


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## oldblue (16 April 2008)

I don't have an insight into the industry, but a prominent investment advisor has SIP as a Buy at present.

( Okay, there are probably others who have it as a Sell)


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## nomore4s (16 April 2008)

reece55 said:


> Hrmm.... I'm not sure... chart wise it is looking terrible, but substantial shareholders are turning up left right and center..... Funymetantal base case scenario supports a substantially higher valuation than SIP currently commands...
> 
> Normally, I would say this one is doomed because of the chart, but I just think this may be an extremely good buying point...... I have no technical basis to draw this conclusion however... Anyone here have an insight into the industry at the moment...
> 
> Cheers




Reece, while my last statement was some what bearish, I still think the stock is being accumulated, so I'm probably long term bullish, lol.

I just don't think the accumultors(?) are in any hurry at the moment and seem willing to let the stock sag.

I was in a rush (like now) in my last post so probably not exactly what I was trying to say.

I will try to post an updated analysis when I get time - probably not till tomorrow or the weekend.

While buying at these levels may prove to be a good buying point I would only do so if you have a long term view.


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## Julia (17 April 2008)

quarky said:


> i think you're replying to *Nicks* post and mistakenly quoting me.
> *Nicks* bought more as it went down. not me.



No.  I'm not.  Nicks made it quite clear he had sold.

I was responding to your Post 52 of 14 April where you said:
"don't know what to do. buy more into it, given its risk/reward characteristics...or sell and move on.
decisions, decisions... "

I was questioning why you would consider buying more, given how much you had already lost.  






> i only bought SIP once (and a pretty big sum of it) about a year ago.
> it's sitting at well over half that value.
> 
> don't know what to do....
> i haven't had much luck with the ASX, so am holding off.



Seems you're still undecided.


----------



## nomore4s (22 April 2008)

Updated chart.

Have had a new wave down marking a new low.

Some mixed signals atm.

While I think there is accumulation going on, the downward slide is proving difficult to stop.
The break through $1.30 led to a bit of a quick probe lower, leading to a larger thrust down (red levels on the side).

I've circled the volume bubble as this interests me.
To me it looks like strength, demand soaking up supply. Maybe if the buyers didn't come in here the low could have been lower?

As the volume subsided the price has started to inch higher - supply currently exhausted?

This stock needs to do a few things before I will be truly interested in taking a position but there are signs there.

If there is accumulation going on they are in no hurry thats for sure. A test of patience.

Good learning expirence at any rate.


----------



## quarky (24 June 2008)

nomore4s said:


> While I think there is accumulation going on, the downward slide is proving difficult to stop.
> The break through $1.30 led to a bit of a quick probe lower, leading to a larger thrust down (red levels on the side).




i hold a substantial amount in Sigma Pharma.
bought it at $2.50 over a year ago, but it closed at 0.985 yesterday.
this is fresh lows and i hope it's not like a One.Tel collapse...because i stand to lose a lot of money.

does anyone know why the share price is this low?
i've been checking some sites but can't find anything on this.  

signed,
Concerned...


----------



## oldblue (24 June 2008)

Apart from the obvious weakness of a lot of stocks in the current bear market, possible reasons include:

Lack of favourable news.
Competitive/regulated nature of pharma market.
Govt proposals to reduce/restrain margins.
Sigma missing out on acquisitions recently and opportunity for consolidation.
Entry of Indian firm ( name escapes me) to Aust market.

In short, there seem to be plenty of reasons not to buy SIP at present and no compelling reason to buy. That said, I don't see it as a company in imminent danger of going out of business, rather as just a steady performer.


----------



## ROE (24 June 2008)

oldblue said:


> Apart from the obvious weakness of a lot of stocks in the current bear market, possible reasons include:
> 
> Lack of favourable news.
> Competitive/regulated nature of pharma market.
> ...





Agree I dont think it will go under, with distribution network like SIP someone will buy it out before something happen to it in a worse case scenario.

but generic drugs is a tough game, anyone can make them and the cheaper you make the better you are at taking on your arch rival and there are pressure for SIP as oversea generic makers are coming in to Australia.

I dont think it can go much lower than where it is at a moment I reckon 80 cents is a low as it go... I buy it at 80 cents actually if it hits that low.


----------



## oldblue (24 June 2008)

ROE said:


> Agree I dont think it will go under, with distribution network like SIP someone will buy it out before something happen to it in a worse case scenario.
> 
> but generic drugs is a tough game, anyone can make them and the cheaper you make the better you are at taking on your arch rival and there are pressure for SIP as oversea generic makers are coming in to Australia.
> 
> I dont think it can go much lower than where it is at a moment I reckon 80 cents is a low as it go... I buy it at 80 cents actually if it hits that low.




I won't be putting a target Buy price on SIP but rather will be watching to see the downtrend stopped and reversed.
Even then, I'm not too sure I would buy it when there are a lot of other similarly beaten down stocks available.


----------



## Spork (28 August 2008)

I'm holding this one, and have just noted that the ASX has issued a "please explain" to Sigma regarding its share price spike over the last few days, to which Sigma has replied with the Schulz defense, "I know nothing".  Can anyone shed a light on what implications the issue of this notice can have on the spike, based on previous examples / experiences?

BTW, if it makes any difference I'm in this long-term based on value.


----------



## 2BAD4U (28 October 2008)

I've just had SIP come up on my radar.  Looks like a flag forming so will be looking for a breakout above $1.40 following a 50% retracement of the run up.  Haven't looked at the fundamentals yet, but I may start paying attention to this one.


----------



## UMike (9 October 2009)

> Existing Eligible Retail Shareholders took up approximately 32% of their
> Entitlements. New Shares not taken up under the Retail Entitlement Offer were sold
> through a bookbuild process conducted on 8 October 2009. The Retail Entitlement
> Bookbuild priced at the Issue Price of $1.02.




You would think that the existing holders are not very confident, not to take up thier entitlements!

What exactly does this "bookbuild" mean?????


----------



## So_Cynical (9 October 2009)

Traded under the issue price today...they prob should of discounted the issue further than they did, the 32% take up by holders is pretty weak and a sure sign that the issue was over priced.


----------



## oldblue (10 October 2009)

UMike said:


> You would think that the existing holders are not very confident, not to take up thier entitlements!
> 
> What exactly does this "bookbuild" mean?????




It means that certain instos etc were asked to tender for all or some of the shares. A price was set at a level that would allow all the "surplus" shares to be placed.

It is essentially the same process used in placing bulk lots of shares or in setting a price (sometimes) for IPO's. The Myer IPO is a case in point.


----------



## UMike (12 October 2009)

Thanks SC and Oldblue







So_Cynical said:


> Traded under the issue price today...they prob should of discounted the issue further than they did, the 32% take up by holders is pretty weak and a sure sign that the issue was over priced.



I 'spose it didn't matter as the underwriters took up the remaining shares therefore this bookbuild play. I can understand SIP not reoffering the SPP (like AIO and BLY did) with so a poor take up.

Very little activity today so I 'spose most of the manovering was done on Friday.


Swapped WES for this so I'll see how it goes long term.


----------



## snabbu (15 December 2009)

*SIP*

I wonder if anyone had an opinion as to why SIP is taking such a hammering.
The analysis on comsec shows an issue with short term liabilities due to retirement of some debt in the short term, yet the half yearly report from the company says they have renegotiated all their debt with west pac through 2011 so both can't be correct or am I missing something. 

The average projected dividends for the next two years is at 7.2 cents FF grossed up to 10.286 Cents. At todays price 91.5 cents that is 11.2 odd percent return.

Comsec analysts have it as 2 strong buy and 1 hold .
The only thing I can see that might be wrong is the amount of debt they have but having said that wespac's just redone their loans and they would have been through them with a fine tooth comb.

So my question is before I average down yet again is there something I am missing here.  The market seems to hate the stock and the volumes in market depth look crook.

Cheers

Gary


----------



## skyQuake (15 December 2009)

*Re: SIP*



snabbu said:


> I wonder if anyone had an opinion as to why SIP is taking such a hammering.
> The analysis on comsec shows an issue with short term liabilities due to retirement of some debt in the short term, yet the half yearly report from the company says they have renegotiated all their debt with west pac through 2011 so both can't be correct or am I missing something.
> 
> The average projected dividends for the next two years is at 7.2 cents FF grossed up to 10.286 Cents. At todays price 91.5 cents that is 11.2 odd percent return.
> ...




Where did you get that figure for the divvies? I have Divvies as 6c in 2010 and same for 2011. Does your figure account for the cap raising dilution?
Nothing exciting in the pipeline and a bit of disappointment on the generic drugs business may be keeping people away.


----------



## snabbu (15 December 2009)

"Where did you get that figure for the divvies? I have Divvies as 6c in 2010 and same for 2011. Does your figure account for the cap raising dilution?
Nothing exciting in the pipeline and a bit of disappointment on the generic drugs business may be keeping people away."

Comsec has them in their research at 7 for 2010 and 7.4 for 2011
so My 7.2 is an average of that I assume comsec has taken note of the dilution.

The generic drug business represent 19%-20% of their action the balance comes from retail Pharmacies, the PPS which is a big player in this will not be mucked about with again before the next election.  it's too much of a political football. All their pharmacies offer you their own drugs it's like "would you like frys with that"  That seems to me to be a good vertical business. Who would not buy Valpam and save money it's the same drug as valium it's still diazapam. 

Yes they have pushed the boat out with borrowing but it has been to buy some good earners like Methadone now there is a loyal customer that Mc Donalds would kill for.

Cheers

Gary


----------



## ROE (15 December 2009)

*Re: SIP*



snabbu said:


> I wonder if anyone had an opinion as to why SIP is taking such a hammering.
> The analysis on comsec shows an issue with short term liabilities due to retirement of some debt in the short term, yet the half yearly report from the company says they have renegotiated all their debt with west pac through 2011 so both can't be correct or am I missing something.
> 
> The average projected dividends for the next two years is at 7.2 cents FF grossed up to 10.286 Cents. At todays price 91.5 cents that is 11.2 odd percent return.
> ...




to me this business is pretty ordinary at best, they don't do anything special and the oversea generic drug maker probably can do it a lot cheaper.

They have no competitive advantage, they are in the business of cheapest price win the game.... and are they the cheapest?

and with this sort of business you need volume because they cant command price, you need to command volume and if volume is not there
so is the bottom line.

I don't own the stock and would never own it either, failed my test


----------



## snabbu (15 December 2009)

*Re: SIP*



ROE said:


> to me this business is pretty ordinary at best, they don't do anything special and the oversea generic drug maker probably can do it a lot cheaper.
> 
> They have no competitive advantage, they are in the business of cheapest price win the game.... and are they the cheapest?
> 
> ...




Yes it probably is a pretty ordinary business. Yes overseas drug companies could probably make generics a lot cheaper.  But what the overseas companies do not have is distribution.  When you walk into an Amcal pharmacy they don't ask you if you'd like the chinese version of this drug.  They do ask you if you would like the Australian version of this drug, and they tell you it's cheaper. End off. 

I disagree that they have no competitive advantage, they have retail distribution. 

I disagree they are in the business of the cheapest, they are in the business of the cheaper.  Which they are.

In regard to volume I agree if the volume is not there then there is an issue.

Having said all this all your comments are directed to less than 20% of the companies business.  This business is several retail chemist chains who makes a few drugs on the side. You don't seem to be across the business.

What is this test you have that precludes a stock from your portfolio forever.  I am constantly evaluating and re evaluating if I had a test that banished a stock to the remainder bin forever it would sure save me a lot of time.

 Cheers

Gary


----------



## ROE (15 December 2009)

*Re: SIP*



snabbu said:


> Yes it probably is a pretty ordinary business. Yes overseas drug companies could probably make generics a lot cheaper.  But what the overseas companies do not have is distribution.  When you walk into an Amcal pharmacy they don't ask you if you'd like the chinese version of this drug.  They do ask you if you would like the Australian version of this drug, and they tell you it's cheaper. End off.
> 
> I disagree that they have no competitive advantage, they have retail distribution.
> 
> ...




You are probably right because you may know more about this company than I am because you own stock in it... 

But this company failed for me for lot of reasons ... I have 10-15 rules it didn't pass many... let just say SIP has an advantage like you said in distribution or retail or better cheaper drugs, the number tell me it doesn't

now you can argue till the cow come home about how good their distribution network are but they have to show me the key figures in their reports to prove it..... Like someone tell me they can buy a new BMW 3 for $30K I said bull**** unless you show me the invoice with a 30K sticker on it.... 

Since you like Retail business have a look at JBH and TRS   I like them when they are $2 and I still like them when they are $6 and still like them even at today price ..with the exception of JBH .. I start to dislike it a little.... 

somebody tell me TRS sell junks no one want to buy...the number tell me they are in the commodity market where price is everything and they seem to be the kings of kings when it comes to deal maker...and they have the keys number to prove it to me so I don't have to listen to other people I just look at key figures...

I like DMP and NVT when they are $2 too and still like them at $4 and still today.... People said Dominos is crab no one eat them, XYZ make better pizzas, again the number blow away crazy analyst and comments, I admit dominos isn't the greatest pizza on earth but the strange thing is people keep eating more and more of it each year and it doesn't stop, not for nicer pizza, not for the financial crisis... go figure 

There are 3500 listed companies I own at most 15-20 
Company unless you are top of the top dog, you wont make into the
list....so I excluded thousand of stocks from my buy list FOREVER not
just one or two...SIP is one of thousands... I wouldn't say these companies wont make money, they are just not my in thing 

I wont post any more  time to go and get a coffee and read today AFR


----------



## UMike (1 March 2010)

First a trading halt with the information relaesed in quotes



> the trading halt is necessary as Sigma expects to make an announcement to the
> market in relation to revised earnings guidance arising from year end adjustments




Now a suspension.

Any clues????

Can't be good.


----------



## ROE (1 March 2010)

They probably didn't lodge their report by the deadline and hence suspension from trading...bad bad management

From experience this sort of thing is never good as the auditor and the company are disagree on key figures and auditor isn't signing it off.

Good luck hope you come out clean and buy better stocks


----------



## oldblue (1 March 2010)

It doesn't look too good but I wouldn't be completely negative on this.

Although the odds are that SIP is going to announce a downgrade to its earnings, their financial year is to 31 January, not 31 December, so the announcement isn't overdue at this stage.


----------



## oldblue (2 March 2010)

oldblue said:


> It doesn't look too good but I wouldn't be completely negative on this.
> 
> Although the odds are that SIP is going to announce a downgrade to its earnings, their financial year is to 31 January, not 31 December, so the announcement isn't overdue at this stage.




No announcement yet but here's the SMH's comment on the company.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/sigma-rests-ahead-of-downgrade-of-condition-20100301-pdjf.html


----------



## oldblue (5 March 2010)

And this today from The Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-off-the-bourse/story-e6frg9io-1225837354972


----------



## ROE (22 March 2010)

Game, Set & Match with the master of financial engineering Allco 
It has the word dodgy written all over 

http://www.news.com.au/business/disastrous-allco-deals-haunt-sigma/story-e6frfm1i-1225843550633


----------



## GumbyLearner (22 March 2010)

oldblue said:


> And this today from The Australian.
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-off-the-bourse/story-e6frg9io-1225837354972




The companies sales are also being constantly challenged by out-of-patent generic pharmaceutical-makers in places like India. Couple this with what has already been posted and this is a bow-wow that no Daddy should buy. IMO. 

DYOR


----------



## bandicoot (31 March 2010)

I just read that even after revealing the partial collapse of the business, and consequent loss of credibility and s/h value, nobody is resigning. 

Is there a process whereby a group of shareholders can force a 'vote of confidence?'

Better yet, is there a way to actually 'sack' a board and/or its chairman?


----------



## vincent191 (31 March 2010)

bandicoot said:


> I just read that even after revealing the partial collapse of the business, and consequent loss of credibility and s/h value, nobody is resigning.
> 
> Is there a process whereby a group of shareholders can force a 'vote of confidence?'
> 
> Better yet, is there a way to actually 'sack' a board and/or its chairman?




This is almost like a re-run of the Allco buying Rubicon story. Allco paid far too much for Rubicon and now the media and the liquidator and ASIC is questioning the transaction. The lost of confidence is a BIG issue and it will take a long time for the sp to recover, in the meantime the long suffering shareholders have to bear the whole burden while those responsible for the disaster still enjoy the high life. What justice?


----------



## bandicoot (31 March 2010)

vincent191 said:


> The lost of confidence is a BIG issue and it will take a long time for the sp to recover, in the meantime the long suffering shareholders have to bear the whole burden while those responsible for the disaster still enjoy the high life. What justice?




Agreed, hence the question. 

IMO, the board and chairman need to go; it's not about 'punishment' it's about confidence (restoring it). This is _our_ company after all, not theirs.

What concerns me is that by the time it becomes obvious to everyone that the status quo can't continue, it may be too late for shareholders to recover value.

*
No such thing as a 'passive shareholder,' post GFC*
The usual approach of shareholders in this situation (myself included) is to simply sell up and move on, but what happens when company after company collapses under similar circumstances? When ASIC, ASX, and auditors are unable to keep up? What do investors do then? Why buy into yet another accident waiting to happen? 

*Board has not told all*
I strongly suspect that the board has only revealed their failure to the extant that they must. Am I just cynical, or do others share this 'gut feeling'? 

Their description of the mismanagement of our assets, as well as their comments regarding future prospects suggest (to me) a bad outcome if new leadership is not hired soon. 

Reading between the lines, I believe the current plan is to stagger on another couple of years, hoping to stay one step ahead of creditors, until 'something' positive happens. But this approach only works when credit is 'easy' and investors are lazy/gullible. As for 'asset sales..'  that sounds fine, but I don't think these are the people to get the best price.

I hope other shareholders will respond to this. Sigma is a great company, and I believe prompt effort by shareholders will be well rewarded.


----------



## ROE (31 March 2010)

big gutless institution holders.. I feel angry for SIP holder 

If I was a fund manager and has a large stake in any company. (hope one day I will)

If I don't like what they doing I will express my anger and let it be known
you are wasting shareholder money and if they don't smarten up I call the vote to kick them out...

What a big jokes these fund managers, waste of space they don't deserve to be the champion of your cash... 

any decent fund managers would have express their anger months back when they go on an "undisciplined in pursue of more" course... I would
and I lecture them how to properly allocate capital


----------



## lzen5 (1 April 2010)

the company claims that the loss is due to impairment to goodwill, while sales have gone up. I havent really looked at their spreadsheet, but its quite obvious that the managment is hiding something bigger. someone needs to be sacked.


----------



## lzen5 (1 April 2010)

bandicoot said:


> Agreed, hence the question.
> 
> IMO, the board and chairman need to go; it's not about 'punishment' it's about confidence (restoring it). This is _our_ company after all, not theirs.
> 
> ...





you are absolutely right on this one, I was given a small number of SIP shares, so it didnt hurt as much,  but i would sell before thier next audited report comes out.  at the moment just see what happens in the short term.


----------



## vincent191 (1 April 2010)

lzen5 said:


> the company claims that the loss is due to impairment to goodwill, while sales have gone up. I havent really looked at their spreadsheet, but its quite obvious that the managment is hiding something bigger. someone needs to be sacked.




In my vocabulory "impairment to goodwill" means you paid for something that was suppose to be good and valuable but it turned out to be "sh#t". We are talking about hundreds of millions paid for Bristol.

I cannot post here what I think is happening but read up on Allco and their acquisition of Rubicon in recent newspaper articles and form your own opinion.

Anyway....I have no patience for Directors who are paid a small king's ransom and show such inpairment in their judgement.  I share ROE's opinion that the big institutions are gutless wonders.

If the current board can so easily fall into this current mess what confidence is there that they can stagger their way out of it. My current sentiment is the board cannot even find their way out of a paperbag!!!!

Unfortunately nearly all of my money is gone....and no use crying over spilled milk. Hopefully, the sp can recover a little bit more and I am cutting my losses. I am fuming.......


----------



## McCoy Pauley (1 April 2010)

bandicoot said:


> I just read that even after revealing the partial collapse of the business, and consequent loss of credibility and s/h value, nobody is resigning.
> 
> Is there a process whereby a group of shareholders can force a 'vote of confidence?'
> 
> Better yet, is there a way to actually 'sack' a board and/or its chairman?




The shareholders would need to get a sufficient block of members together to force the company to call an extraordinary general meeting to spill the board.  It's possible to be done but the retail shareholders simply won't have the numbers.

I saw in the papers this morning that Slater & Gordon has been approached about a possible class action suit against SIP.


----------



## oldblue (2 April 2010)

Taking a class action might benefit Slater and Gordon but it's rather counter-productive for shareholders to take action against their own company! 

Now action against the directors would be a different matter but I guess they are indemnified by the company in any case so any insurance payout would result in an increased premium being paid - by the company - read "shareholders"!


----------



## vincent191 (2 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> Taking a class action might benefit Slater and Gordon but it's rather counter-productive for shareholders to take action against their own company!
> 
> Now action against the directors would be a different matter but I guess they are indemnified by the company in any case so any insurance payout would result in an increased premium being paid - by the company - read "shareholders"!




I really don't care who pays, I have losted my money and if there is any chance of getting some back I will go for it. The Directors knew of the impending doom but they failed to disclosed their knowledge in a timely manner under the ASIC continous disclosure requirements. Had I known about the difficulties facing the Company late last year I wouldn't have invested in the Company.

Instead they continued to supply misleading profit forecasts and I made my investment decision based on this. I have been mislead.

Even toady - the CEO is still making doubtful statements like Sigma will resume making didvidends next year and they will stagger out of the current problems and the underlying business is sound.

Firstly, there is no way Sigma will be making any dividends soon. Dividends can only be made out of profits (equity) and right now after the huge write offs they have a negative owners equity. Somebody tell me how you can make a dividend out of negative equity. And it will be a long time before they can return to a positive equity.

Secondly, under the new banking covenance, they have to sell assets. It is not known what they are going to sell and how much they have to sell. I believe this is not a small number, there have a very significant debt to reduce and their assets have been bought at the top of the market. IMO there are more write downs to come. Is this business as usual?

Thirdly, the banks have increased their interest because of the higher risk, considering the huge amount of debt what is the increased interest expense going to do to the bottom line. Still business as usual?

Finally, about 1.2 billion of debt is due next year and unless they can turn the ship round in time and avoid a fire sale this is going to be a big problem.

In the old days military commanders are expected to fall on their swords after disasters and in this case someone has to fall on their sword. I want my pound of flesh for my money.


----------



## vincent191 (2 April 2010)

oldblue said:


> Taking a class action might benefit Slater and Gordon but it's rather counter-productive for shareholders to take action against their own company!
> 
> Now action against the directors would be a different matter but I guess they are indemnified by the company in any case so any insurance payout would result in an increased premium being paid - by the company - read "shareholders"!




Insurance and Company indemnities does NOT cover fraud and wilful misconduct or criminal breaches. Directors in breach can be sued personally.

ASIC has an obligation to investigate Elmo and the board, if certain allegations made against them are proven then it is going to be litigation BIG time.

Wild speculations have already begin to circulate about their Sale and Profit numbers. I repeat "wild speculations" at this stage. It is a common practise to dress up sales and profit numbers by consigning stock to retailers, it is speculated that retail chemists have been induced to stock up on their products and given 180 days to pay. IF this is true then how did SIP treat this practise. Is the goods on consignment treated as inventory which does not inflate profit or has this been treated as a sale which inflates profit.

I believe that their audit report is also heavily qualified and raised doubts to their going concern ability. 45 cents may look a bargain right now but the full facts are only just starting to emerge. 

It took 5 weeks of "discussions" with their auditors and bankers before they released their accounts. Historically, when this happens - the company does not survive. Time will tell with SIP.  Is this company undervalued at 45 cents?  You make up your own mind. For me I am now only a poorer spectator.


----------



## oldblue (3 April 2010)

So far, the press talk has been about possible legal action against the company, not against individual directors or officers, but I guess that could change in time.

Of course, the problem with acting aginst individuals is that one relies on them being worth the "powder and shot", either in their own right or through appropriate liability insurance that covers them for the alleged misdemeanors.

I've been following SIP for several years but was never convinced that either the company or the sector offered compelling reasons to invest, compared to other opportunities.


----------



## snabbu (15 April 2010)

vincent191 said:


> I really don't care who pays, I have losted my money and if there is any chance of getting some back I will go for it. The Directors knew of the impending doom but they failed to disclosed their knowledge in a timely manner under the ASIC continous disclosure requirements. Had I known about the difficulties facing the Company late last year I wouldn't have invested in the Company.
> 
> Instead they continued to supply misleading profit forecasts and I made my investment decision based on this. I have been mislead.
> 
> ...





I can understand your unhappiness at what has occurred. 
I agree with your summation of the situation, nice and concise. 
There is little or no chance of any recovery of money by any means.
Either (a) legal or (b) price recovery. (c) Revenge.

Legal
There is the issue of the write down of the carrying capacity of good will.
What happened here was poor judgement, or risk taking or, lack of proactive management. They are in denial about this they are calling it bad luck.
Now de-wiz and de-thick or whatever their names are would say this was caused by unforeseen circumstances. I would say it's their job to foresee the unforeseen and should have protected share swap acquisition deals with some mechanism like a call option. Or put a price limit in the deal. They didn't, I think incompetent but not illegal. And the good will had to be written down not to do so would have been illegal. 

price recovery
I think the board is in denial, I don't think they really want to face the reality of the situation they are in. I guess this is basic human nature not to want to face up to the bald truth. because it's ugly.

I think it's this.
Banking covenants have been breached and waived by a consortium of the big four. They have done this because they think they can get some or all their money back. They have the say whether future dividends will be paid.
Basically you have a company with margin pressures in a highly competitive market now in the hands of their bankers. 

I understand this is a quote from their audit report.
‘there is significant uncertainty as to whether the company … will continue as a going concern and, therefore, whether it will realise its assets and extinguish its liabilities in the normal course of business’

I had a 9% portfolio weighting my buy price was 92 cents and my exit price was 48 cents.  So obviously I would say get out. The issue is where and when and that depends a lot on where the shares are held, personally, SMSF, etc. Also on the rest of your portfolio. So do feel your pain but make sure you get out at the most advantageous time for tax, try to get something positive out train wreck. I kind of feel that leaving it much past July 1st 2010 would not be good.

Revenge
Yes it would be sweet but we all know it is only in John Wayne movies that the guys in the white hats win and the bad guy always looses. I think some american investment fund has about a 6% chunk of Sigma if they got cross I suppose something might happen. But my information is that $1.9 million a year man good old Elmo de Alwis is quite relaxed about it all.  Don't you just love it he gets paid 2 million for loosing half our money and if you go and look at the announcements late last year you will notice he got a performance bonus.  So I can understand his relaxed state up to a point.
Anyway if he got the sack he could always go and run the NSW RTA he has all the right qualities. 


Cheers

Gary


----------



## UMike (15 April 2010)

Resignation of CEO & Managing Director
The Company CEO and Managing Director, Elmo De Alwis has today tendered his resignation to
the Company as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, which the Board has accepted.

Ann out 2:38 PM.

Yay????


Ediit
Ha ha the SP was dow 2% and is now uo 3%. Thats a 5% rise on the ann. :lol:


----------



## vincent191 (15 April 2010)

UMike said:


> Resignation of CEO & Managing Director
> The Company CEO and Managing Director, Elmo De Alwis has today tendered his resignation to
> the Company as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, which the Board has accepted.
> 
> ...




Elmo's resignation had come too late.  I have done my bread but there are still plenty of people out there trying to catch falling knives.  Snabbu, do what I had done, have a couple beers and forget about SIP, there are plenty of fishes in the sea. 

How can I trust SIP ever again. Only last week Elmo was saying it is business as usual, fundamentals have not changed and he had the full support of the board and now barely a few days latter he resigns and the board had accepted it almost straight away. What a turn around in such a short space of time, what else have they told us which is a bunch of lies.

I reckon the current sp is being pushed up by Instos trying to get out, could be a pump & dump you reckon?


----------



## snabbu (15 April 2010)

vincent191 said:


> Elmo's resignation had come too late.  I have done my bread but there are still plenty of people out there trying to catch falling knives.  Snabbu, do what I had done, have a couple beers and forget about SIP, there are plenty of fishes in the sea.
> 
> How can I trust SIP ever again. Only last week Elmo was saying it is business as usual, fundamentals have not changed and he had the full support of the board and now barely a few days latter he resigns and the board had accepted it almost straight away. What a turn around in such a short space of time, what else have they told us which is a bunch of lies.
> 
> I reckon the current sp is being pushed up by Instos trying to get out, could be a pump & dump you reckon?




"On behalf of the Board, I sincerely thank Elmo for his hard work and dedication throughout his 33 years with the business," Sigma chairman John Stocker said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX)

Thank you for your excellent advice, I shall replace the beers with single malts as is my want.
John stoker has just lost half a mill
and he thanks Elmo for this 
What a soft ****.
Fancy investing in a company when the FIN CON is a woman called DE- THICK, you have to laugh sometimes I can be very stupid besides my wise looks. A women !!! ( is this misogynist) and DE-THICK!!!

Ah Yes the bishop in the bedroom with the alter boy.

Stoker's cards are marked as a wanker, my little black book says if Stokers on the board don't buy the shares.


----------



## vincent191 (16 April 2010)

Hehehe....I like that "the Bishop & the alter boy."  I am over SIP now....took an overall hit of .72 cents a share. Well, the pain lessens each day but I will live. 

I am only watching SIP out of interest, given the length of time of the trading halt there must have been one hell of a sh*t fight between the Board and the Auditors.

Surely, when the Board of SIP buy something for hundreds of millions of dollars you would expect them to do due diligence very diligently. How can they be SO WRONG.

Further, they must have known when they did the latest capital raising yet no warning was given and I took up the rights issue in good faith. 

I still haven't receive anything about a class action but if it cost me nothing or very little I will definately join in. Judging from what I read regarding Storm Financials, Opes Prime, ABC Learnings, Allco etc....I think it is every shareholders' duty to prosecute Directors & CEO if there is a decent case against them for breach of fudiciary duties, afterall, we the shareholders pay them millions and millions of dollars.


----------



## steptoe88 (17 May 2010)

so where does sip go now?
do you think the new management will be able to turn things around?
or is it just going to be a lost cause?
I always find it interesting that no matter the size of an organisation nobody is too big to make mistakes.


----------



## steptoe88 (20 May 2010)

well toiday i see board resignations wonder where this will end up now?
could be a major shakeup?
i guess it was inevitable.


----------



## lemontree (21 May 2010)

"Sigma advises that it has received a non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal to
acquire all of the issued share capital of Sigma for an indicative price of $0.60 per Sigma
share under a scheme of arrangement or other whole of business transaction.
The Sigma Board is considering the proposal and recommends that shareholders take no
action at this stage. Sigma will make a further announcement in due course."

So why is it that the sp doesnt rise to just below 60c? Does the "conditional" proposal have to do with anything?


----------



## oldblue (21 May 2010)

lemontree said:


> "Sigma advises that it has received a non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal to
> acquire all of the issued share capital of Sigma for an indicative price of $0.60 per Sigma
> share under a scheme of arrangement or other whole of business transaction.
> The Sigma Board is considering the proposal and recommends that shareholders take no
> ...




Yes, the "conditional" and the "non-binding" and the "indicative" bits!

It's a punt and the market's marking it at about a better than even bet at the moment.


----------



## UMike (7 July 2010)

Conditional takover offer @55c

Doubt that It'll be taken up.

tp://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01077478


----------



## Chief Wigam (17 July 2010)

latest annoucement says board is considering this offer and working with the bidder to improve it

Also they are considering other options in selling off assets.

but seems to me they don't have much choice but to accept this offer if that's the best they can get. That is quite a premium on currrent share price 13c higher.


----------



## lemontree (16 August 2010)

From the latest announcement, sigma and aspen agree in principle to a 900m take over of sigmas pharmaceutical division. This would value each share at about 75c. I wonder how long it'll actually take to draft up the necessary paperwork for this haha. Either way, imo it looks good for those who entered in the 50c mark or below.


----------



## tronic72 (6 December 2010)

Todays biggest drop SIP is currently @ .405. Close to it's lowest for the year.

Anyone know what has caused this second drop?

EDIT:
_Sigma Pharmaceuticals has been informed by one of its major suppliers, Pfizer Australia (Pfizer) that from 31st January 2011 Pfizer will be expanding its current "Pfizer Direct" model so that all prescription products (PBS and non PBS) will be delivered by Pfizer direct to pharmacies. This program will by-pass the national full line wholesaling system. Pfizer also announced it would not be seeking to participate in the Community Service Obligation (CSO) funding pool.
Sigma will continue to distribute Pfizer’s OTC & Consumer Products.
As a result of Pfizer’s decision, Sigma expects its annual wholesaling revenues to decrease by approximately 10-15% from February 2011. However the full impact on future earnings is being assessed. Given the significance of this change, combined with the impact of the recent PBS reform legislation, this will accelerate the need for Sigma to further reduce its customer trading terms.
Sue Morgan
GENERAL COUNSEL AND COMPANY SECRETARY_



T


----------



## polska (6 December 2010)

API also had a massive tumble today, if I had to choose they would be the much better buy


----------



## Gringotts Bank (30 March 2011)

SIP 	  	SIGMAPHARM FPO 	  	Interim 	  	0.15     	  	05 Apr 2011 	  	11 May 2011 	100% 	*15C FRANKED @ 30% SPECIAL*


Should see it crack 50.


----------



## xenith69 (30 March 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> SIP           SIGMAPHARM FPO           Interim           0.15               05 Apr 2011           11 May 2011     100%     *15C FRANKED @ 30% SPECIAL*
> 
> 
> Should see it crack 50.




So those who buy in before 5th april will get the 15c divvy?


----------



## UMike (31 March 2011)

xenith69 said:


> So those who buy in before 5th april will get the 15c divvy?



Yep. Don't see how that rewards long suffering long term holders????



polska said:


> API also had a massive tumble today, if I had to choose they would be the much better buy



 Doesn't appear so ATM.


----------



## Muschu (1 April 2011)

Certainly is a remarkable dividend -- don't get the reasoning behind it however


----------



## skc (1 April 2011)

Muschu said:


> Certainly is a remarkable dividend -- don't get the reasoning behind it however




They sold their generic drugs business last year and got the spare cash to distribute out in the form of a dividend...

It was always on the cards.


----------



## wasabi (6 April 2011)

Can someone help with new calculation, what is the new value / entry price for this stock? I am hoping to see the bounce and want to buy at dip.

Appreciate & thanks.


----------



## Muschu (6 April 2011)

wasabi said:


> Can someone help with new calculation, what is the new value / entry price for this stock? I am hoping to see the bounce and want to buy at dip.
> 
> Appreciate & thanks.




I can't calculate this but the stock is pretty much at a 12m low.  It may go lower - I have no idea.

Or perhaps there has been an over-reaction to the special dividend, perhaps not.

But how would you know where the bottom is?  Surely better to buy on an uptrend?

Just my thoughts.

Rick 

- Holding SIP


----------



## Muschu (30 July 2011)

SIP  has done well recently but now seems to be trending down after holding up well.... 

That, "holding up", seems a compliment to the company in a market which is currently suffering.

Yet there appears to be no bad news.  

My approach, as best as I understand it, is a combination of TA, FA and just getting older.

Any views on where SIP is heading in the longer term?

Thanks 

Rick


----------



## UMike (14 September 2011)

Nice 15+% rise to a well over 12mth high

60c atm on the release of theri half year report.

May even see a 1.5 fully franked dividend.


----------



## McLovin (14 September 2011)

Good to see they're continuing to get their receiveables in order. They used to pretty much fund all their customers. I think it's probably still too early to get too excited though, especially with more PBS price changes coming.


----------



## UMike (15 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> Good to see they're continuing to get their receiveables in order. They used to pretty much fund all their customers. I think it's probably still too early to get too excited though, especially with more PBS price changes coming.




Excited ain't quite the word.

Very relived. Lucky I bottom picked this..... But not as much as I would of liked.

Got the majority out 61c and 64.5c

If it drops below 57.5c I'd be very reluctant to pick any more up.

Dunno why I didn't sell the lot. Very interesting story for sure.


You'd think this would be "speeding ticket" material?????


----------



## pixel (20 February 2013)

It's been a slow grind over recent years, but SIP's trend shows successive higher Lows, and I'm also noticing the last Highs increasing.





Even more intriguing is last week's Dragon Fly doji, the likes of which seem to be followed by more rises. See August 2011, January 2012, and several more.

SIP came to my attention in today's Market Scan, which suggests some accumulation after a "purposeful" price decline. Not on yet, and I'd prefer the higher trendline to be broken before committing. That's what alerts are for.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 February 2013)

Thanks pixel,

I've made and lost more money on SIP and it's monster father SIG than I care to count.

I'll keep an eye on it.

Chart looks promising.

gg


----------



## ROE (20 February 2013)

what have we here...I like the new restructure and balance sheet much much better than the old SIP..never own the old SIP....

decent dividend and prospect of maintain and increase dividend is high that seal the deal....and I like management proactively exercise their capital allocation by buying back shares when it's nice and cheap  ...short term cash drain for massive long term gain....
just as simple as that no need for fancy formula 

when I like something I like to buy... I hop on board not long ago.
sit back and sip coffee and enjoy dividend twice a year


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 February 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks pixel,
> 
> I've made and lost more money on SIP and it's monster father SIG than I care to count.
> 
> ...






ROE said:


> what have we here...I like the new restructure and balance sheet much much better than the old SIP..never own the old SIP....
> 
> decent dividend and prospect of maintain and increase dividend is high that seal the deal....and I like management proactively exercise their capital allocation by buying back shares when it's nice and cheap  ...short term cash drain for massive long term gain....
> just as simple as that no need for fancy formula
> ...




Thanks

I will keep an eye on SIP.

The 3 year weekly chart is informative.

If it breaks previous high at about 0.78, I may be induced to hop on board again.

As for fundamentals, it is in a tough market, a dividend today, may disappear on the morrow.






gg


----------



## tinhat (21 February 2013)

Pharmaceutical distribution, especially the generic products, might be one of those markets where the margins are so low that the existing distribution channels and contractual/compliance channels of incumbents such as SIP provide a sufficient defensive moat. With the massive destruction of shareholder value that occurred in the GFC I've never looked into SIP but it could be a defensive income earner?


----------



## ROE (21 February 2013)

tinhat said:


> Pharmaceutical distribution, especially the generic products, might be one of those markets where the margins are so low that the existing distribution channels and contractual/compliance channels of incumbents such as SIP provide a sufficient defensive moat. With the massive destruction of shareholder value that occurred in the GFC I've never looked into SIP but it could be a defensive income earner?




There is more to the new SIP than just generic drugs, buy the time the market see it 
it's doing a bunnings......

The new management is very focus and know where to target high margin area...it may not show up for a few years but happy to collect 6% dividend while I wait and I can almost be certain dividend can be maintained


----------



## McLovin (21 February 2013)

ROE said:


> The new management is very focus and know where to target high margin area...it may not show up for a few years but happy to collect 6% dividend while I wait and I can almost be certain dividend can be maintained




What are they targeting? I'd be interested to know because they've been such a low margin, wc intensive business for years (a few years back a shareholder could easily have wondered if the business was being run to enrich pharmacists!). I'd be interested if they could start getting paid sooner, 75 days is a bit rich.

API, Clifford Hallum, SIP they all seem to suffer the same problem, they're getting spitroasted ('scuse the French) by their suppliers and their customers.


----------



## tinhat (8 September 2013)

ROE said:


> There is more to the new SIP than just generic drugs, buy the time the market see it
> it's doing a bunnings......
> 
> The new management is very focus and know where to target high margin area...it may not show up for a few years but happy to collect 6% dividend while I wait and I can almost be certain dividend can be maintained




SIP is due to report this Thursday. I'll be interested to read the report. Just a question - what is preventing Woolworths or Wesfarmers from entering the pharmacy market? I seem to recall that there is some regulatory ban against them contesting this market?

Share price is sitting on a very long term support level at 62c.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (9 September 2013)

tinhat said:


> SIP is due to report this Thursday. I'll be interested to read the report. Just a question - what is preventing Woolworths or Wesfarmers from entering the pharmacy market? I seem to recall that there is some regulatory ban against them contesting this market?
> 
> Share price is sitting on a very long term support level at 62c.




Legislation prevents Woolies and Coles from entering into the pharmacy game.  Woolies tried to break the monopoly of the Pharmacists' Guild a few years ago and lobbied the Commonwealth Government hard to have the law changed to allow supermarkets to set up pharmacies inside their stores, but the Pharmacists' Guild is a very well-connected industry lobby group and successfully convinced the Government that their interests (and I use that phrase loosely so everyone can draw their own conclusions) would best be served by the status quo.

Accordingly, Howard and Abbott (then Health Minister) caved and canned Woolworths' proposal to trial in-store pharmacies in five stores.

This would have been 10 years ago.

Alan Mitchell wrote about the issue about 12 months ago, urging Julia Gillard to change the laws, but of course nothing happened (http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/prescription_for_savings_4DSByEpIww0fJWpL0sXPHM), and given that Abbott apparently pledged his support for the industry prior to the election, still nothing will happen (http://www.pharmacynews.com.au/news/latest-news/coalition-s-letters-of-support-reassure-guild).   Like the ridiculous prices Australians have to pay for software, it looks like Australians will have to pay ridiculous prices for drugs, unless the drugs are subsidised on the PBS (which as its own issues, as Brian Toohey never tires of pointing out, though it seems nobody listens to him).


----------



## skc (9 September 2013)

McCoy Pauley said:


> Alan Mitchell wrote about the issue about 12 months ago, urging Julia Gillard to change the laws, but of course nothing happened (http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/prescription_for_savings_4DSByEpIww0fJWpL0sXPHM), and given that Abbott apparently pledged his support for the industry prior to the election, still nothing will happen (http://www.pharmacynews.com.au/news/latest-news/coalition-s-letters-of-support-reassure-guild).   Like the ridiculous prices Australians have to pay for software, *it looks like Australians will have to pay ridiculous prices for drugs, unless the drugs are subsidised on the PBS* (which as its own issues, as Brian Toohey never tires of pointing out, though it seems nobody listens to him).




I spoke with a pharmacist friend the other day. He's saying that it's a tough gig out there for an independent pharmacy. The margin on drugs are quite thin, and margin on retail are razorthin. They are screwed on payment terms and there are going to be PBS changes that will on average reduce income by $90k per store.

He also mentioned that it's a mis-conception that Australians pay more on drugs... he said while that is true for some common drugs, the truely expensive drugs (the ones that cost over 5 figues) are made very affordable by PBS. So in value-weighted terms drugs are not overly expensive. 

The other thing he mentioned was that, with these super-expensive drugs, the pharmacy puts up the money to buy it first, and it's 10 days before the government's payment come in. The out-of-pocket payment by the patient is only low, so really it just locks up working capital with very little in return. 

(Sorry I can't be more clear as it was a conversational conversation so I am struggling to recall full details).


----------



## pixel (13 December 2013)

After going sideways for 2 months, Sigma seems to have finally found some strength to break the barrier.




Compared to its sector, XHJ, it's doing remarkably well, enough for me to buy a few.
Stop if it closes below 60c, although I wouldn't mind if the gap to 59.5 was closed Intraday.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 December 2013)

Thanks pixel,

I watched SIP on Friday after your post, decided not to get involved, mainly because of the general recent pessimism about the XAO.

Well bought!

I may change my mind tomorrow, volume and RSI seem promising, but worry it may be a Sept 13 rerun, when it promised to break higher then plateaued and continued down.






A good post. Thanks.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 February 2014)

Where to from here with SIP.

The XAO looks set for a leg up.

Will SIP follow?

gg


----------



## pixel (11 April 2014)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Where to from here with SIP.
> 
> The XAO looks set for a leg up.
> 
> ...




Today, SIP seems to buck the trend and move North.
Maybe I've set the alert @70c a tad too high, but when it fired, I started buying again.




good early volume as well.


----------



## VSntchr (24 June 2014)

Since the budget was released last month, Primary and Sonic Healthcare have been suffering on the basis that GP co-payments will reduce patient numbers and flow-on business for pathology etc.

It seems that SIP is bucking the trend after today nudging 80c, despite being in a business which is similarly affected by GP flow-on volumes of clients. 





- FWIW, I think the impact of the GP co-payments is being a tad exaggerated - both by the public, and by the investment community. But that's perhaps for another thread.


----------



## galumay (24 June 2014)

VSntchr said:


> It seems that SIP is bucking the trend after today nudging 80c, despite being in a business which is similarly affected by GP flow-on volumes of clients.




I happily hold, bought in October for 57c, up about 36% and a nice divvy to boot! My best performer in the portfolio to date.


----------



## pixel (24 June 2014)

VSntchr said:


> I think the impact of the GP co-payments is being a tad exaggerated - both by the public, and by the investment community. But that's perhaps for another thread.




I can't argue with that - especially since the legislation is still very much in limbo and may not even become Law.
But when I look at PRY and SHL, I reckon the investment community is really scared it may indeed come true. Now, SIP and API are in a different situation: Patients may not visit their GP as frequently as before, but the pills they need are far less under threat. So, even if they visit their doctor less often, they can still "bundle" prescriptions and ask for 3 or four scripts at one visit, rather than going twice as often for one or two.

From yet another angle, looking at today's Shooting Star candle (which is a highly reliable Top Reversal Doji) makes me suspicious that wouldbe profit takers may have created a little rally, so they can sell at a higher level.


----------



## ROE (8 September 2014)

SIP going from strenght to strenght with the latest aquisition

I foreshadow this a while ago when I bought this baby cheap, and by the time the market see what is going on with SIP it already bolt ... time to grow again


----------



## galumay (8 September 2014)

ROE said:


> SIP going from strenght to strenght with the latest aquisition
> 
> I foreshadow this a while ago when I bought this baby cheap, and by the time the market see what is going on with SIP it already bolt ... time to grow again




Yes, i seem to remember you helped me with my decision to include SIP in my portfolio, its subsequently been one of my best performers.


----------



## JTLP (8 September 2014)

So the question begs, has the train bolted or are there still legs in this?

I would have thought Chemist Warehouse would have made a bigger dent in to SIP, unless they have some arrangement that I'm not seeing?


----------



## ROE (8 September 2014)

JTLP said:


> So the question begs, has the train bolted or are there still legs in this?
> 
> I would have thought Chemist Warehouse would have made a bigger dent in to SIP, unless they have some arrangement that I'm not seeing?




Chemist Warehouse still buy drugs from SIP  in fact chemist warehouse drive a lot of SIP volume
can't see why they SIP cant play in Chemist Warehouse area as well, since the new CEO took over he negotiate pretty good term in favour of SIP

like TLS supplies lines to a lot of ISP and in the broadband market themselves
they can use the pricing knowledge to their advantages.

It takes time but this CEO will make SIP in a decent force to reckon with


----------



## JTLP (9 September 2014)

ROE said:


> Chemist Warehouse still buy drugs from SIP  in fact chemist warehouse drive a lot of SIP volume
> can't see why they SIP cant play in Chemist Warehouse area as well, since the new CEO took over he negotiate pretty good term in favour of SIP
> 
> like TLS supplies lines to a lot of ISP and in the broadband market themselves
> ...




Thank you - I was always of the belief that Chemist Warehouse parallel imported a lot of their goods and delivered them at cut-throat margins. Interesting to see how SIP goes then


----------



## galumay (19 March 2015)

Full year report released today, still not seeing the full benefit of the acquisitions and changes to the company, these will show up next FY for the full year. None the less a satisfactory result, a reinstatement of the divvy as expected and a special divvy to make up for the one we missed.

Steady as she goes, I like the way this company is building slowly but steadily.


----------



## piggybank (9 May 2016)

Well it's been going a lot quicker the past 3 months, with the price having jumped 70% on increased volume.


----------



## galumay (9 May 2016)

piggybank said:


> Well it's been going a lot quicker the past 3 months, with the price having jumped 70% on increased volume.




Yes, I am up over 100% on my original investment. They are tonking along nicely.


----------



## piggybank (9 May 2016)

galumay said:


> Yes, I am up over 100% on my original investment. They are tonking along nicely.




Congratulations Galumay on the mark up on your original investment. If only it was the case all the time


----------



## galumay (9 May 2016)

piggybank said:


> Congratulations Galumay on the mark up on your original investment. If only it was the case all the time




Tru dat, mind you a few multi baggers in the portfolio really help, you dont need a lot of them - although more would always be nice!


----------



## System (5 May 2017)

On May 4th, 2017, Sigma Pharmaceuticals Limited changed its ASX code from SIP to SIG.


----------



## System (8 May 2017)

On May 8th, 2017, Sigma Pharmaceuticals Limited changed its name to Sigma Healthcare Limited.


----------



## notting (26 July 2017)

Busting up


----------



## skc (26 July 2017)

notting said:


> Busting up




Gone from legal action against its biggest customer to commercial negotiation... not a bad sign. Remember this was the issued that dropped it from $1.20 to sub 80c. 

I have a small trading position in the high 80s that is now finally coming good. Hopefully the uptrend continues and the gap gets closed.


----------



## galumay (26 July 2017)

Very happy I overcame any biases at play and held on when they dropped. I came close to selling as even at sub-80c I was well in profit.


----------



## luutzu (15 November 2017)

Anyone know what Sigma's hospital and ADF distribution business is? 

Is it what they say in terms of distributing to Hospitals and the ADF? Or do they set up a pharmacy on a few sites there?

Thanks.


----------



## rnr (15 November 2017)

luutzu said:


> Anyone know what Sigma's hospital and ADF distribution business is?
> 
> Is it what they say in terms of distributing to Hospitals and the ADF? Or do they set up a pharmacy on a few sites there?
> 
> Thanks.




http://sigmahealthcare.com.au/our-services/


----------



## luutzu (15 November 2017)

rnr said:


> http://sigmahealthcare.com.au/our-services/




Thanks. Somehow I forget to look beyond the Annual Report pages of corp websites.

Could be an interesting company this Sigma middleman.


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 March 2018)

Under the radar? Not a lot of announcement forthcoming from the company. Maybe Mr. Hooper has positioned this company nicely. Financial year report should be out this month as it was 23 March last year. Boss was looking for 5% growth in EBIT. Chart looking possible for a renewed trend up. I could be in for 10k worth pending price action. Will see.



> *Outlook*
> “We confirm our previous guidance of at least 5% underlying EBIT growth for FY18, even though it will be off a bigger base than initially anticipated,” said Mr Hooper.
> 
> Mr Hooper continued, “The year ahead will not be without its challenges as we continue to bear the full cost of our reinvestment plans that will start to incrementally contribute to results, skewed towards the end of FY18 and into FY19.  So to still expect deliver on our guidance is pleasing.”


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 March 2018)

Thought to post this screen shot before supply comes in to meet. Some larger buy orders in for some speculation or knowing?


----------



## Wysiwyg (15 March 2018)

As expected supply arrived in numbers. God bless their souls. It is a great morning to sell.


----------



## Wysiwyg (17 March 2018)

Taking some risk here that an EOY report isn't going to be detrimental to the share price. Thursday coming week.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 March 2018)

In keeping with integrity, my great quality, I was forced to exit at a loss from SIG this morning. If they don't go, then it's bye bye bro.


----------



## notting (2 July 2018)

Suing your largest customer then not turning up to renew the contract.  Woops. 37% smack down as the contract goes elsewhere.  Maybe they should sell to kogan and go online.


----------



## luutzu (2 July 2018)

notting said:


> Suing your largest customer then not turning up to renew the contract.  Woops. 37% smack down as the contract goes elsewhere.  Maybe they should sell to kogan and go online.




Not pretty. Got in at 72c before. Ouch. 

But just added a bit more. So no one will know what I did, when I did it


----------



## McLovin (2 July 2018)

McLovin said:


> What are they targeting? I'd be interested to know because they've been such a low margin, wc intensive business for years (a few years back a shareholder could easily have wondered if the business was being run to enrich pharmacists!). I'd be interested if they could start getting paid sooner, 75 days is a bit rich.
> 
> API, Clifford Hallum, SIP they all seem to suffer the same problem, they're getting spitroasted ('scuse the French) by their suppliers and their customers.




This is my post from 2013. It's interesting to work backwards from today's announcement. Three hundred million dollars in cash released from WC by the loss of this contract and only a $25m-$35m hit to EBIT. Woeful economics in this industry. 

On the other hand, $500m mc on a business that will *hopefully* be receiving $300m in cash in the next twelve or so months and be left with a business generating EBIT of ~$45m.


----------



## galumay (2 July 2018)

Using the same process, McLovin,



galumay said:


> Very happy I overcame any biases at play and held on when they dropped. I came close to selling as even at sub-80c I was well in profit.




I sold out in the end in Sept 17, lost any conviction the business was deserving of my capital! Got out in the mid 80s and made a nice profit plus good dividend yield over the time I held. 

Very happy to not be holding today!


----------



## luutzu (2 July 2018)

McLovin said:


> This is my post from 2013. It's interesting to work backwards from today's announcement. Three hundred million dollars in cash released from WC by the loss of this contract and only a $25m-$35m hit to EBIT. Woeful economics in this industry.
> 
> On the other hand, $500m mc on a business that will *hopefully* be receiving $300m in cash in the next twelve or so months and be left with a business generating EBIT of ~$45m.




They've since improved on the receivables. Down from that 70 days to 49days last FY17.

Cash cycle also improved. 

Practically no debt. Low margin but awesome cash flows. With that potential $300M cash, selling for $500M... Backed up my truck today. 

See how it goes, might unload others to hopefully bottom feed a bit more.


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## notting (2 July 2018)

The boss, Mark Hooper, looked surprisingly happy and even a little smug today.  Perhaps he knows that EBOS who picked up the contract are going to be destroyed by it! They haven't given guidance only said it's a 1B contract and should make good profits! Hardly encouraging news. 
SIG have a fair bit of experience in what can go wrong!!
I really don't want them go give all the money back to shareholders.  I hope that do something much smarter.


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## luutzu (2 July 2018)

notting said:


> The boss, Mark Hooper, looked surprisingly happy and even a little smug today.  Perhaps he knows that EBOS who picked up the contract are going to be destroyed by it! They haven't given guidance only said it's a 1B contract and should make good profits! Hardly encouraging news.
> SIG have a fair bit of experience in what can go wrong!!
> I really don't want them go give all the money back to shareholders.  I hope that do something much smarter.




Hopefully a big share buyback and some acquisition. API might make another tilt soon? Third time lucky?

Got to admire management who are willing to walk away from a big contract because they can't make the numbers work. And this doesn't look like because SIG doesn't have the scale or the reach to deliver to CWH.


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## notting (2 July 2018)

It will be interesting to see the contract with EBO, see if there is a clause or way for Chem Warehouse to buy from 'others!!!!' if they feel like it or EBO can't keep up the supply!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Country Lad (2 July 2018)

notting said:


> The boss, Mark Hooper, looked surprisingly happy and even a little smug today.




From his statement

_



			Conclusion 
Mr Hooper concluded, “The decision on the MC/CW contract creates an important pivot point for Sigma. It may be a step back in our short term financial results, but it improves the risk profile of our earnings and also releases significant capacity to better leverage our infrastructure and resources in areas that can provide long term sustainable growth."
		
Click to expand...


_And the market said "yeah, sure, who are you kidding" and smashed it 40%.


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## leyy (2 July 2018)

Could be a good buying opportunity for SIG.

I feel that the termination of the supply agreement with Chemist Warehouse may have already been priced in as this should not be a surprise to any shareholder this was advised in May 2017 and since they started legal proceedings it was very clear that there was no coming back to repair the relationship with CW.

The drop in price may have been an overreaction for the CW announcement but more so to the profit downgrade from 90m to 75m EBIT for FY19, which was not really impacted by the CW deal as this supply agreement terminates at 30 June 2019 more so softer sales...

I'll be watching this space.


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## Mr Bear (2 July 2018)

Wouldn’t waste time investing in SIG,  fairly valued to expensive now.. a lot more risk to come as they attempt to create some earnings growth..


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## JTLP (3 July 2018)

Country Lad said:


> From his statement
> 
> 
> And the market said "yeah, sure, who are you kidding" and smashed it 40%.




I laughed!

The way the statement reads isn’t encouraging. If they diversify into something they’re good at, then great! Fraught with danger if they just acquire to make up the revenue.


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## notting (16 July 2018)

> It would not have been a pleasant task for the likes of chief executive *Mark Hooper*, chairman *Brian Jamieson* and well-known directors like *Kate Spargo* who were buying shares as part of the employee share plan just days before the stock price nearly halved.
> 
> The directors collectively acquired about $50,000 worth of shares between June 28 and June 29 at around 80c each with Hooper and Jamieson accounting for the big share purchases.
> 
> ...




Perhaps they were anticipating that the bad news of losing Chemist wharehouse had well and truely being priced in.
When it tanked further they went crazy buying more.
Perhaps there going to make a take over bid of EBO when it's trading at 2c


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## luutzu (14 December 2018)

In Trading Halt.

Majority holding from API at about 12%. 

A takeover?

Sigma tried to take over API a couple times before. Looks like it's payback this time.


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## luutzu (14 December 2018)

Merger proposal, not takeover. Same difference?


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## luutzu (14 December 2018)

I called into the SIG teleconference. There were a few questions from three guys... my takeaways:

The board is awaiting Accenture's report (expected early Jan 2019) before making any recommendation.

As stated in the news release, API approached SIG around Oct. The board is not opposed to the idea of a merger per se, industry consolidation is "good"... but of course the price have got to be sensible for SIG shareholders.

My guess is at the current 68c equivalent, it might not represent much value for those who bought in a year or two ago.

Hooper was saying, as you would, that the takeover and the lost Chemist Warehouse contract doesn't affect Sigma's investment/operating decision and grand strategy. Not at all .

That the two brand spanking new DC in Sydney and Melbourne are long term investment that'll be use in the planned growth opportunities anyway.... although a sublet is possible    and I'm guessing API's taking over will greatly optimised these capital assets.

There was a question on his take on what the ACCC will do... seeing how they've knocked back API's previous two attempts. He might be right that the landscape have changed a fair bit since the previous proposals/knockbacks...

There's EBOS trying to take over the Pacifics; DHL, the CW etc.. That and API wouldn't be forking out some $100M to try a third time without being fairly confident, this time, they can convince the ACCC this merger will be good for the Aussie battlers.


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## luutzu (14 December 2018)

Just showing off right now.... but my calculator works 


See how if the asking price [red constant line, at 49c a share] falls below your estimates, preferably in the gold/orange area... that's a good pitch to strike at.







OR... combining Graham's valuation estimates... the then market price at 49c implies return of 10%p.a. whereas the seller is expecting less than 1%p.a. return.

Combine that with the "normalised" earnings, the maturity of Sigma's business [as shown by its stable earnings since 2014]... and ignoring the potential upside from its new ventures into hospital privatisation around Australia... the odds of it turning out well buying at 49c was pretty good.


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## mcgrath111 (28 December 2018)

"According to the release, Australian Pharmaceutical Industries has made an offer to merge the companies with a cooperative approach so that Sigma shareholders will receive the equivalent of 68.6 cents for every share they own.

This offer comprises 23 cents per share in cash and 0.31 Australian Pharmaceutical Industries for every Sigma share. Sigma’s shares last closed at 40.5 cents, meaning this offer equates to a premium of 69%."

At today's sp of $.565, I'm seeing some value - yet how it plays out is anyone's guess. API sitting at 12.5% on the registry


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## bigdog (14 March 2019)

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-sigma-healthcare-share-price-210830715.html

Motley Fool reports

*Why the Sigma Healthcare share price plunged 12% on the ASX yesterday*

Lachlan Hall
Motley Fool 14 March 2019

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG) share price plunged 12.3% on the ASX yesterday to lead the ASX losses after the company provided an update on the proposal it received from *Australian Pharmaceuticals Industries * (ASX: API) in December 2018."

The Board of Directors has decided the API proposal is not in the best interests of Sigma shareholders, and the share price plummeted on the news, falling to $0.535 per share – its lowest level since early December 2018.

*What did management say in the update?" *
Management stated that since January 2019, API and Sigma have engaged in a limited form of due diligence focused on the synergy and regulatory workstreams which included mutual sharing of high-level information through virtual data rooms and in-person due diligence sessions. The due diligence confirmed a sound basis for $60 million per annum run-rate synergies assumption, largely due to supply chain consolidation to Sigma-owned warehouses.

On 4 March 2019, Sigma received a letter from API reconfirming its non-binding indicative proposal on essentially the same terms as the indicative proposal received from API on 11 October 2018. This initial bid was for API to acquire Sigma, via a Scheme of Arrangement, for 0.31 API shares plus $0.23 cents in cash for each Sigma share held.

Management also said the outcome of its Sigma standalone business review has identified cost efficiencies of over $100 million that are deliverable by Sigma as a standalone business in the next 18-24 months, separate from the $60 million of synergies identified.

As a result of the above, the Board of Sigma has concluded that the API Proposal is not in the best interests of Sigma shareholders and will not recommend entering into the Scheme of Arrangement.

*So where to now for Sigma?*
These mergers and acquisitions tend to have a little bit of cat-and-mouse about them, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is simply a tactic by the Sigma Board to bring API back to the table with a juicier offer.

Having said that, betting on M&A approvals is risky business given the regulatory and anti-competition hurdles that need to be cleared even once the Board and shareholders have approved any deal. While management believes they can target significant cost savings in the next 18-24 months, I’d be wary given Sigma’s profitability and potential growth outlook.

If you’re willing to look outside the healthcare sector, I’d be checking out these top growth shares that have been tipped as market beaters.


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## Trav. (14 August 2019)

I probably jumped in a little early on this one as BO was not confirmed ( still isn't ) when I bought @ $0.615 but SIG is trending nicely on no news.

There is a large unfilled gap from $0.657 to $0.80 (not shown) so hopefully it can get past the $0.65 mark, then work on filling the gap after that.


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## galumay (14 August 2019)

Still not an investible business IMO, likely heading to its next corporate disappointment.


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## systematic (14 August 2019)

galumay said:


> Still not an investible business IMO, likely heading to its next corporate disappointment.




Hope not, I just got in last week


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## galumay (14 August 2019)

systematic said:


> Hope not, I just got in last week




No doubt I will be wrong and you will do very well! With a bit of luck some sort of M&A deal will emerge and there is some decent profit for you.


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## Zaxon (24 March 2020)

With SARS-CoV-2 on the loose, I'm hoping this healthcare stock will do well over the next few months.


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## Dona Ferentes (23 March 2021)

Sigma Healthcare has bounced back from a loss a year earlier to report a profit for the year ended 31 Jan.  Sales revenue rose 4.8 per cent to $3.4 billion while net profit after tax climbed to $59.8 million from a $12.3 million loss a year earlier. Underlying EBITDA rose 39.2 per cent to $81.1 million, slightly ahead of guidance.



> “_Significantly, Sigma has navigated the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic without any reliance on direct government support such as Job Keeper_,” said Sigma chief executive and managing director Mark Hooper.





> “_We have the building blocks in place to underpin our target of 10 per cent per annum growth in underlying EBITDA for the next two years and around $100 million by FY23._”




Sigma declared a fully franked dividend of 1¢ a share.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 September 2021)

_not much confidence in SIG ...  60c again_

Sigma Healthcare has blamed the impact of the pandemic and associated lockdowns for the half-year net loss of $1.3 million.  And it sees the lockdowns causing more pain in coming months.

Revenues were up 5.5% to $1.7 billion for the July half year and the loss figure was better than the $4.3 million loss during the same period last year when the company had to withstand the first round of lockdowns.

CEO Mark Hooper said in the earnings release that the business had achieved a pleasing result despite the continued impact of city-wide lockdowns, which have moved foot traffic away from pharmacies in key areas like airports and CBD areas.


> “It is creating a slightly softer position for us,” he said. Despite this, Hooper said he does not expect any widespread closures of pharmacies in city areas, optimistic that the vaccine rollout is now underway.




He said it was disappointing that pharmacies had only been green-lit to give COVID-19 vaccines over the past month, but was confident the sector would now play a big part in speeding up the rollout.


> “With Moderna now coming into pharmacies, it’s a real positive,” he said.




Underlying earnings before interest and tax rose 14.7% to $39.2 million for the half but Mr Hooper said the lockdowns will trim that growth for the full year to around 5%.


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## divs4ever (29 October 2021)

SIG is my November ( 2021 )  tip in the comp.

 please remember i ( normally ) pick stocks i want to buy cheaper  , and have an order in for SIG @ 55 cents ( which MIGHT edge lower in the coming month )

 i THINK  SIG will  be edged out of the bidding war over API , because the regulator will ( ACCC ) will be hesitant  , i see GG has a differing opinion on the API thread )

 i hold SIG , API and WES  , and the SIG offer suits me better  ( but would prefer API carried on  as it is )

 but SOL have already bailed  so i suspect somebody  will snap up API , 

 my instincts tell me  the banking sector will come under pressure next month  , and should really have picked a XFJ focused ETF  , but i picked SIG anyway 

 good luck everyone


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## divs4ever (5 November 2021)

API Merger Proposal
Sigma Healthcare Limited (Sigma) announces that it will not proceed with its current proposal to
merge with Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (API). This follows the non-binding
proposal lodged by Sigma on 27 September 2021 to merge with API.
Whilst the Board of Sigma remains of the view that Sigma’s merger proposal with API is a very
strong proposal for all stakeholders, particularly given the $45 million of operational synergies per
annum that it believes would likely have been created for API and Sigma shareholders, the Sigma
Board has put an end to the process.
Sigma Chairman Ray Gunston commented: “Sigma believed it made economic, commercial and
strategic sense to pursue the merger proposal between Sigma and API on the terms we
presented. However, after further assessment, and in the context of the competitive bid process
with its changing transaction and economic considerations, Sigma has made the decision not to
proceed with this current proposal.”
“Sigma remains confident of our growth prospects without a merger with API and the Board and
management have continued to focus on longer term growth in our core operations. The Sigma
team will keep on working to finalise the completion of our infrastructure upgrade, including our
ERP project, and to remain focused on leveraging our infrastructure to create greater shareholder
value.” he said.
“Notwithstanding some short-term challenges in the current year, we believe the Sigma business
base provides a positive longer-term outlook. Sigma’s investments in its operations, and its strong
balance sheet and future cash generation, underpin the future strategic directions that will be
shaped under the leadership of our new CEO Vikesh Ramsunder from February 2022.” Mr
Gunston concluded.
This announcement is authorised by order of the Board.

courtesy of Bell Direct
============================================================================

DYOR

i hold both SIG and API ( and WES )

the scrip ( SIG ) offer would suit me better

 looks like my second choice is off the table  , but since WES is doing a $2 a share capital return  , is WES still interested in 100% of API ??

 although holding a controlling interest in a company  is unusual for WES  ( instead of inhaling it all ) one might wonder until  an announcement to clarify  the current offer 

i lowered my order to 54c after just being missed twice  higher  , now will the share price fade on the news in the near term


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## Sean K (2 December 2021)

Not sure about the fundamentals on this but I assume WES and WOW would have run the ruler over them before pushing up the price of API. Could have bought this way off highs and looking quite ill.


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## divs4ever (2 December 2021)

i bought  API from $1.74 down to $1.07 ( av. SP $1.34 )

 so cash-wise if the take-over proceeds ( either one )  i am looking pretty , but the portfolio strategy is looking ragged

 especially if the holdings in Aussie utility companies  ( AST and SKI ) complete

OOPS   posted in the wrong forum 

 maybe Joe would like to move it to the API forum  , please


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## divs4ever (2 December 2021)

SIG i bought from 83.5 cents down to 46 cents a share price average of 60.5 cents  , so am a bit underwater  so far on SIG , but am willing to carefully add more ( lower  )


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## Sean K (2 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> SIG i bought from 83.5 cents down to 46 cents a share price average of 60.5 cents  , so am a bit underwater  so far on SIG , but am willing to carefully add more ( lower  )




I'm surprised it's only up a few % atm. 

You're averaging down strategy seems to be working for you though.


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## qldfrog (2 December 2021)

just added some SIG fordiscretionary, 53c is not that high and might get a bit of back wind now
, a shame for API as I have held often  but within systems and I was out when it was right to be in...


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## Dona Ferentes (2 December 2021)

a lot of this corporate activity would be, I think, to shore up the defenses,  as it is quite likely Chemist Warehouse will list  in 2022 (I've heard).


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## qldfrog (2 December 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> a lot of this corporate activity would be, I think, to shore up the defenses,  as it is quite likely Chemist Warehouse will list  in 2022 (I've heard).



That would be a good vompany with aging and poorer population, plus all the supplements craze..obviously at the right price


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## Dona Ferentes (2 December 2021)

qldfrog said:


> That would be a good company with ageing and poorer population, plus all the supplements craze..obviously at the right price



Don't forget the beauty products, skin care and perfumes.... that is where the margins are


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## divs4ever (2 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> I'm surprised it's only up a few % atm.
> 
> You're averaging down strategy seems to be working for you though.



 now my trader buddy  , did very well on SIG back when it did the capital return  ( i was on the sidelines , uninterested at the time )  my strategy was to hold hybrids on healthcare stocks back then ( Primary Healthcare and Healthscope , mostly ) and have always been struggling  to get a good position in SIG ( meanwhile API had grown into a major holding , for me )

 but SIG has had it's dramas in the past  , so some might be a little cautious , looking ahead   .. will SIG improve or slide when this virus thing is history and near-normal supply-chains return 

 i was looking for small(ish) parcels in the 4x cent range  , that might be a fair wait now  , but SIG has had it's moments before 

 ( since SIG manufactures some products  i was mildly surprised WES chased API instead of SIG , since WES already has chemical capability in other areas  , WES making medicines AND fertilizer/agri-chemicals should have yielded some synergies , just not a truckload early on )


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## divs4ever (2 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> I'm surprised it's only up a few % atm.
> 
> You're averaging down strategy seems to be working for you though.



was mostly playing API and SIG as 'safe-havens '  , mostly because  i have biases against most of the listed food producers .
 i try to avoid seafood companies   am harsh on beef/sheep companies  and careful ( but lucky so far ) on companies that produce plant crops . there will be huge changes coming eventually , there is just too much debt in the system  for endless can-kicking


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## divs4ever (6 December 2021)

Trading Update

Sigma Healthcare Limited (Sigma) has today updated its earnings guidance for the financial year
ending 31 January 2022 (FY22). With 10 months of FY22 complete, Sigma now anticipates FY22
Underlying EBITDA to be down around 10% versus FY21. This follows the most recent update
provided in September this year of 5% growth.
This update reflects a challenging second half of the financial year, which has been impacted by
shorter-term operational issues resulting from the roll-out of our Enterprise Resource Planning
(ERP), with Sigma switching to the live SAP environment on 29 August 2021. These issues were
compounded further by the protracted COVID-19 impacts.
Interim Chief Financial Officer Jeff Sells commented: “A total ERP upgrade is a significant change
management program for any company, and whilst we reached go-live on this project broadly on
budget and on time through a pandemic, we have faced additional challenges in the context of
completing implementation through the height of COVID-19 restrictions. Unfortunately, this has
had some significant impacts on our customers, and we are rectifying these issues as quickly as
possible.”
The combination of these factors in the second half of FY22 have materially impacted sales and
resulted in an unexpected increase in operating costs through the transition. One-off and nonoperating costs are likely to be higher at around $25-$30 million. As a result of all these outcomes
the peak net debt will be commensurately impacted.
Mr Sells commented: “We are confident the actions already taken and in progress will see the
technical challenges with our ERP implementation largely confined to FY22. However, these
issues have affected sales in FY22 which will flow through to FY23 sales, with the impact
expected to abate as we progress through FY23.”
Chairman Ray Gunston commented: “Notwithstanding this set-back, we remain confident in the
future growth profile for Sigma, which was further underlined with the Sigma Board recently
approving the extension to our new Victorian Distribution Centre in Truganina. This will see $20m
invested to double existing capacity to 40,000 square metres to accommodate the growth pipeline
ahead. The extension is expected to be completed over the next 18-months.”
“Sigma has undertaken an extensive transformation program over the past four years that puts the
company on a strong footing for our incoming CEO Vikesh Ramsunder to execute our strategy,
focussing on actions to accelerate our long-term growth and improve margins.”
“We remain focused on growing our core business, whilst continuing to build on business
expansion opportunities across areas such as Hospital Services, Contract Logistics and medical
devices and consumables, to leverage our strategic advantage across our automated DC
network.” Mr Gunston concluded.
Sigma has also updated it’s reporting date and is now is expected to announce its FY22 results on
Tuesday 29 March 2022.

courtesy of Bell Direct
==========================================================================================================

DYOR

i hold SIG

will this be a top up opportunity ( for me ) since it is probable the API holding
will be taken over in time and i am playing this niche as a 'safe-haven'


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## qldfrog (6 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> Trading Update
> 
> Sigma Healthcare Limited (Sigma) has today updated its earnings guidance for the financial year
> ending 31 January 2022 (FY22). With 10 months of FY22 complete, Sigma now anticipates FY22
> ...



Bought too early...


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## divs4ever (6 December 2021)

have been nibbling cautiously 

 bought some in November  , before that December 2018 and several more earlier 

 i normally resist big parcels  but have been buying medium size ( for me ) in other stocks this year ( RMS , FMG , WOR , RRL ,MGX ,EVN )

 more about increasing the position AND averaging down ,  here ,  seems  to regularly have stumbles , that MIGHT be a good thing for long term holders ( plenty of top up opportunities )


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## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

another full year pick for the comp. 
 i will need to bulk up on SIG   to partly offset the API takeover ( which will probably go through , i just don't know who the winner will be  )

 i have two small orders in for SIG currently   one @ 41c and one @ 39c  

 a recent ( negative ) turnaround of the forecast  .. i read it as 15%  worse than the previous guidance 

 so putting a 12 month 'thumb of doom '  on this would help balance the portfolio nicely


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## Sean K (8 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> another full year pick for the comp.
> i will need to bulk up on SIG   to partly offset the API takeover ( which will probably go through , i just don't know who the winner will be  )



Good timing I think. Once they get over the short term issues, will be in the frame for consolidation, unless Chemist Warehouse are the next target.


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## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

well API seem to have got away  ( unless WOW make a total mess of that acquisition , and is back for-sale at basket-case rates in a few years  )

 there are  some  kinda related  companies   SIG could go after if adventurous  ( COO isn't the only company  in the 'pharmacy support ' game )

 and they might be unlisted but i suspect SIG  could find something earnings accretive  businesses  lurking around say   a smaller health food supplier  , maybe medical aids  or smaller fitness gear maker/seller

 it will depend on how hungry SIG is 

they might be happy to bunker down  , and buy stuff from the administrators ( all that   debt has to bite eventually , i just don't know where , don't know when  )


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## divs4ever (29 December 2021)

just in case  the previous  post  doesn't  qualify my SIG pick for the yearly  comp. 

 two reasons why SIG MIGHT  rise  is folks speculating  the API  take-over loser will  consider SIG as a take-over target 

OR the API take-over is successful  and SIG is the only  pharmaceutical distributor  left listed on the ASX  , inspiring a few extra buyers 

 but i think SIG is more likely to come under pressure  from increased costs ,  holders  hoping SIG will try to force  growth (  two chances  at a miss disappointment if the take-over plays are unsuccessful  , or reduced shareholder participation if the attempt a capital raise 

 ( but i still have those low buy orders in the market  a year is a l-o-n-g time in the market  , and hitting a buy-order can happen in minutes )

 DYOR


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## frugal.rock (29 December 2021)

Have had my own thoughts about SIG and API merging as @barney might recall. 😂 

Would be a great business move from API in my opinion. 
To my knowledge, SIG pharmacies are generally the smaller ones. A pharmacy, and not a lot more. 
For API to be able to grab all those smaller outlets of SIG's, and consolidate and or fix em up so to speak, would represent a good piece of the overall pie.
If merged, there will be API, Chemist Warehouse and Soul Patterson. A Triopoly.

One API Priceline pharmacy I know of has beaten it's previous daily sales record twice (by over 50% !) in the week leading into Christmas. Not a great data set I know, but a little indicative overall.


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## divs4ever (29 December 2021)

SIG did  put in an offer to buy API ( in a scrip deal )  which would have suited me better than the current two all cash deals , but then SIG  backed off  , from memory SIG actually manufacture  some pharmaceuticals ( probably under licence )

 since SOL  did an agreement with WES early in the game  i am guessing SOMEBODY will acquire API , all API management seem to be worried about is the price , so unless an international player comes in and   invokes FIRB oversight  , API will become a small arm of a retail giant ( at least for a short while )

 so my guess is SIG will  have to stand alone , but will it acquire  , or be acquired  that seems to be the question  ( SIG could always  buy a company with a useful drug patent  and manufacture it  , probably not MSB  , but there are a few small companies that might have a successful drug in the works )


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## bk1 (5 September 2022)

Three days out from the next earnings report, massive volume today, volume contraction preceding this..


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## divs4ever (5 September 2022)

currently up about 21% on this which is a shame because i am trying to accumulate 

 my target price for more is somewhere around 42-43 cents a share 

 maybe the coming report will disappoint  ( or all the buyers already have their seat on the train  )


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## qldfrog (5 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> currently up about 21% on this which is a shame because i am trying to accumulate
> 
> my target price for more is somewhere around 42-43 cents a share
> 
> maybe the coming report will disappoint  ( or all the buyers already have their seat on the train  )



Or reports leaking...and good news coming


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## redsmartie (6 September 2022)

Good stock, at times felt like it was struggling. I like accumulating on gentle up slopes. Don't want to damage my average buy ins. 👍


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## divs4ever (6 September 2022)

i was preferring API , but WES came along a changed that


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## redsmartie (6 September 2022)

SIG chart, not looking like a ski jump.🤞 I got WES as a long term holder so API is in the bag with that one.


divs4ever said:


> i was preferring API , but WES came along a changed that


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## divs4ever (6 September 2022)

i held WES as well  ,but would still bather have API as a stand alone company 

 it is liable to get lost in the mix as just another part of WES

 even a bigger SIG would have been OK but a bit messy  ( SIG and API were held in different accounts )


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## redsmartie (7 September 2022)

redsmartie said:


> SIG chart, not looking like a ski jump.🤞 I got WES as a long term holder so API is in the bag with that one.



My very choppy week and day bar chart with some doodle done on mobile, sorry PC too far away. Could do sideways motion for god knows how long, annoucement pls.







I'm long on SIG.


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## divs4ever (7 September 2022)

SIG has disappointed  from time to time  IF the SIG-API offer had of succeeded  that would have been 'transformational '

 now you have SIG  competing with the WES war-chest 

time will tell but i don't see SIG multi-bagging in the next 5 years  .. now MAYBE  if it acquired some CBD products ( to manufacture and distribute  , am not a CGD fan , but maybe some ACTUAL research will swing me over )

 i hold FIJ  but i can't see SIG rushing to sell Kava by agreement (  but since FIJ are  targeting retail food outlets and health-food shops  .. i would LOVE to be wrong , but i don't think so )

 but sideways  if they can keep paying divs , isn't a bad place to be  , you could nibble in the dips  like i try to do


----------

