# 1937-8 Dow compared to 2008-9



## metric (19 February 2009)

http://api.ning.com/files/AwcqrPivB...Z82l176idQKOnW-nGw5xwaw9BwYT/1937DowJones.jpg

pure coincidence? or are the markets MANIPULATED AND TIMED?



.


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## Aussiejeff (19 February 2009)

metric said:


> http://api.ning.com/files/AwcqrPivB...Z82l176idQKOnW-nGw5xwaw9BwYT/1937DowJones.jpg
> 
> pure coincidence? or are the markets MANIPULATED AND TIMED?
> 
> ...




Woohoo! Wow, according to those eerily coincidental charts, then, we only have another month to go of DOWN then ... get set for LIFT-OFF into the stratosphere!!???

Hmmmm. But, WILL those charts guide us truthfully this time?? Can I bank on that rebound in March/April???


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## Nick Radge (19 February 2009)

Patterns such as these, i.e. the large triangle, come about and repeat because of psychology of the participants. The whole basis of Elliott Wave theory is plotting social mood.


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## tcoates (19 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Hmmmm. But, WILL those charts guide us truthfully this time?? Can I bank on that rebound in March/April???




You probably would have made the same statement about a month or 3 ago 

Otherwise...

* will make counting waves easier
* you will know when the go short or long
* just a coincidence ?????

Reminds me of Split Endz (History never repeats)...

Never repeats!...
   Hey.... Hey....
   Never repeats!

  And I say, that's all
  Remember til the next time

Tim


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## metric (19 February 2009)

good point nick..

considering the universal monopoly of mainstream media, and its relative influence on societies view of the world and events, is mainstream media a driver of mood, or a reporter of it..?

if it is a driver of mood, what does this say?

.


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## Glen48 (19 February 2009)

About every 70 yrs there is a depression, Last in in the 30's had a false bottom ( no the sort Elton John carries) the market tanked  had a rally and tanked again until the War. Keep a close eye on it all.


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## CanOz (19 February 2009)

Nick Radge said:


> Patterns such as these, i.e. the large triangle, come about and repeat because of psychology of the participants. The whole basis of Elliott Wave theory is plotting social mood.




Should post your charts Nick, you've been there and done that.

Cheers,



CanOz


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## Buddy (19 February 2009)

Watch out for the ideas of March. If history repeats itself there could well be some bad days around then.  On the other hand, if you have the nerve, there may well be some great opportunities around then.


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## Buddy (19 February 2009)

Buddy said:


> Watch out for the ideas of March. If history repeats itself there could well be some bad days around then.  On the other hand, if you have the nerve, there may well be some great opportunities around then.




Oops, ides not ideas.  Could be a freudian slip though.


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## derty (19 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Woohoo! Wow, according to those eerily coincidental charts, then, we only have another month to go of DOWN then ... get set for LIFT-OFF into the stratosphere!!??



Not sure if i'm missing something here, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't we be comparing the current DOW situation to that commencing in 1929? The nasdaq compares well to the 1929 chart coming off the back of the tech wreck but the DOW must be more representative of the US situation in whole. 

If you did compare now to the DOW starting from 1929 you would expect a turn around in 2010 sometime. Though maybe based on the charts behaviour and the implications for the herd mentality you could be looking for an entry in late March with a possible hold of a month or two?


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## Temjin (19 February 2009)

derty said:


> Not sure if i'm missing something here, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't we be comparing the current DOW situation to that commencing in 1929? The nasdaq compares well to the 1929 chart coming off the back of the tech wreck but the DOW must be more representative of the US situation in whole.
> 
> If you did compare now to the DOW starting from 1929 you would expect a turn around in 2010 sometime. Though maybe based on the charts behaviour and the implications for the herd mentality you could be looking for an entry in late March with a possible hold of a month or two?




Agree, it doesn't seem right to compare it to 1937s/1938s because the crash happened from 1929 to 1933. And then they had a almost 400% move in Apr 1937. 

This chart is a simple "curve fit".


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## derty (19 February 2009)

derty said:


> Though maybe based on the charts behaviour and the implications for the herd mentality you could be looking for an entry in late March with a possible hold of a month or two?



This Eastern Bloc meltdown may be the factor that could facilitate this next plunge to lows late in March?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14431


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## motorway (19 February 2009)

Temjin said:


> Agree, it doesn't seem right to compare it to 1937s/1938s because the crash happened from 1929 to 1933. And then they had a almost 400% move in Apr 1937.
> 
> This chart is a simple "curve fit".




Absolutely...

it is about as significant as the "Bible Code"

and just as  predictive...

Of what is wrong with this type of analysis

One is the assumption that the speeds that  events are unfolding
are comparable... 

maybe a monthly chart in 1937 = A daily chart 2009

( But then it wouldn't anyway for very  long )

Maybe it is 1932/33 now ?

What was the first rally from the ultimate bottom in the Dow
and then 1933 ?

But so what...

at best guides

people are always the same true
They think they see shapes everywhere even in clouds

You can slide two time series across each other
until they match up and reveal patterns as in shapes..
But only till they don't




more likely we see a 1932 rally
at some point 

imo...
motorway

The charts of then and now seem to 
have very little in common


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## motorway (19 February 2009)

at 2009

motorway


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## motorway (19 February 2009)

Just on looks

It looks more like 1974

But you know what they say about looks 


motorway


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## motorway (19 February 2009)

One more

3 reversal chart

*For Discussion Only*

Every time the price series hit the lower channel
it was time to BUY not SELL

and 


The DOW  really only goes up
( for very good reasons )
1929 was the exception
does it make the rule ?

*For Discussion Only*
DYOR

motorway


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## metric (19 February 2009)

Buddy said:


> Oops, ides not ideas.  Could be a freudian slip though.





reinhardt just mentioned the dates....on a chat forum.

reinhardt i am seriously looking at march 15-16 1009 ............

reinhardt actually march 13 on ................

reinhardt MONEY


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## prawn_86 (19 February 2009)

metric said:


> reinhardt just mentioned the dates....on a chat forum.
> 
> reinhardt i am seriously looking at march 15-16 1009 ............
> 
> ...




Oh yeh, just how it was going to be Feb 9th hey?  I guess if you pick enough dates in a falling market you will get some of them right.

Does he still mention his Feb 9th call which never eventuated??


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## metric (19 February 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Oh yeh, just how it was going to be Feb 9th hey?  I guess if you pick enough dates in a falling market you will get some of them right.
> 
> Does he still mention his Feb 9th call which never eventuated??





well he was 1 day out over 6 months......

and he has called some dates again. to my knowledge he hasnt yet called a date that was wrong....

why dont you pick a date for a 400 point drop in the dow....prawn...lol

.


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## prawn_86 (19 February 2009)

metric said:


> well he was 1 day out over 6 months......
> 
> and he has called some dates again. *to my knowledge he hasnt yet called a date that was wrong....*
> why dont you pick a date for a 400 point drop in the dow....prawn...lol




How does a 400 point drop constitute a crash? He does what all other guru's do, uses open languauge so people can interpret it their own way.

So you think he hasnt been wrong yet, but you just contradict yourself by admitting he was wrong about Feb 9th? And i thought it was 2 days out...

Im not gunna pick a date, as i would be guessing just as much as he is.


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## metric (19 February 2009)

specific dates are not 'open language'....although they may be if one couldnt read.....

hes american. 9th feb is the 9th of feb over there. so when its the 10th.....it is the very next day. only 1 day....ok?

anything else i can help you with? lol


.


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## prawn_86 (19 February 2009)

metric said:


> specific dates are not 'open language'....although they may be if one couldnt read.....
> 
> hes american. 9th feb is the 9th of feb over there. so when its the 10th.....it is the very next day. only 1 day....ok?
> 
> anything else i can help you with? lol




Ok, so you admit he was wrong on that last call then?


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## metric (19 February 2009)

no.


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## sinner (19 February 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Ok, so you admit he was wrong on that last call then?




You've got to admit, going short the SP500 or DJIA on Feb9/10 would not have been a bad position.

My own strategy gave an alarm on Feb 8 when the SP500 daily could not even break the 50MA. So going short in anticipation of the drop would have been even more profitable...

I also posted a bunch of articles in the reinhardt thread which also called for a drop even possible drop by dow theory!


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## prawn_86 (19 February 2009)

sinner said:


> You've got to admit, going short the SP500 or DJIA on Feb9/10 would not have been a bad position.




Yeh i admit that. But in a down trend, the probability is with going short.

I just find it amusing that Metric thinks this guy has never been wrong, yet he was wrong with his last call. 1 - he was a day out (still wrong, even if only by a day) and 2 - he never defined a 'crash'. Would Metric have claimed a 100 point fall? If it broke new lows then i would have paid it, but otherwise i maintain that he was wrong for that particular call


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## Largesse (19 February 2009)

if my left ear gets itchy before 2:39pm in the afternoon on any given day i go short


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## sinner (19 February 2009)

Well we can agree there that was my first question "what qualifies a crash" and he said 1000+ points on the Dow. Only 200 points off that at this point...so by strict definition I guess not.

I'm still watching keenly. There have been weird goings on in the market this week, rational people who know what they are talking about are even noting it.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html

This price action was noted in forums everywhere, and by commentators like Yves Smith. Scalpers warned to stay out or risk getting blown away in the volatility. Then we saw what happened to the indices when US markets opened and the fear hasn't subsided yet.

Who knows how that secret cabal, Legatus operates?


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## metric (19 February 2009)

> I'm still watching keenly. There have been weird goings on in the market this week, rational people who know what they are talking about are even noting it.





...:bier:


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2009)

sinner said:


> Scalpers warned to stay out or risk getting blown away in the volatility. .




LOL, then they aren't scalpers!!


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## CanOz (19 February 2009)

sinner said:


> Well we can agree there that was my first question "what qualifies a crash" and he said 1000+ points on the Dow. Only 200 points off that at this point...so by strict definition I guess not.
> 
> I'm still watching keenly. There have been weird goings on in the market this week, rational people who know what they are talking about are even noting it.
> 
> ...




Not enough fear yet....the VIX hasn't spiked....anyone got a chart of the VIX current to the 18th?

CanOz


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## sinner (19 February 2009)

Ask and ye shall receive.

Note the jump to 50 corresponded perfectly with the 20MA of the put/call ratio hitting -2SD on the 1y chart.


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## Aussiejeff (20 February 2009)

Glen48 said:


> About every 70 yrs there is a depression, Last in in the 30's had a false bottom ( no the sort Elton John carries) the market tanked  had a rally and tanked again *[size=+1]until the War[/size]*. Keep a close eye on it all.




That's the clincher. What dragged the world out of the 30's Depression was a ruddy BIG WORLD WAR which, in addition to being a catastrophe in human terms, ironically had a huge economic stimulatory effect as a by-product of massive investment in arms manufacturing, huge steel works developments etc, etc which re-employed MILLIONS of till then unemployed workers (mostly labourers & factory hands).

It was WW2 that turned struggling, near broke Western economies around and triggered a great Post War BOOM in technology and manufacturing that has lasted until NOW. So, do we need a WW3? 

If not, how is a world BOOM in manufacturing & technology going to be kickstarted?? Oh, sure. CHINA & INDIA will save us all. Do we REALLY believe that?

aj


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## MR. (20 February 2009)

View attachment chart 1900-2009-b.bmp


What is similar is the lead up to both "finiancial crisis" like the chart above "in a fuzzy kind of way"
I also see stay puffed marshmellow men in the clouds

War.....  lets not go there!  We learn from our mistakes!


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## motorway (20 February 2009)

MR. said:


> View attachment 28067
> 
> 
> What is similar is the lead up to both "finiancial crisis" like the chart above "in a fuzzy kind of way"
> ...




What about the action subsequent from the top ?

*one* of the reasons



> The gold standard and the Great Depression.
> 
> The current judgment of economic historians (see, for example, Barry J. Eichengreen, Golden Fetters) is that attachment to the gold standard played a major part in keeping governments from fighting the Great Depression, and was a major factor turning the recession of 1929-1931 into the Great Depression of 1931-1941.
> 
> ...






> A gold standard has not been used in any major economy since that time.A true gold standard came to fruition in 1900 with the passage of the Gold Standard Act. The gold standard effectively came to an end in 1933 when President Franklin D. Roosevelt outlawed private gold ownership (except for the purposes of jewelery).
> 
> President Richard Nixon ended trading of gold at the fixed price of $35/ounce. At that point for the first time in history, formal links between the major world currencies and real commodities were severed". The gold




_The DOW really only goes up
( for very good reasons )
1929 was the exception_

motorway


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## metric (20 February 2009)

and just on the subject of...WAR...

reinhardt says historically war is 'achieved' after the completion of infrastruture and public works projects.....

the world is once again announcing and starting massive public works projects....the completion dates are the beginning of war...2012-3.

incidently.....in 1928 (begins last depression) ford re-tooled the russian auto industry. factries they used to beat the germans...

in 2008 (beginning of new depression) ford AND gm are re-tooling the russian auto industry (oz gm factroy just sent out equipt over there as well) again...

none of this is coincidence. it is manufactured to happen.


.


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## sinner (20 February 2009)

Why do you keep bringing that up? Just seems like fear mongering to me...


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## metric (20 February 2009)

9 months ago i was posting on hotcopper saying banks were shot and commodities were on the way out....i was howled down, and banned a few times in the process....

i posted many articles backing up my claims.....and many people said to me..."Why do you keep bringing that up? Just seems like fear mongering to me....".

either you can prepare, or stick your head in the sand and pretent it wont happen.....

alternate media has made me a lot of money in the last 9 months.....1stly i pulled out of the market because of it...and bought gold and silver because of it. ive nearly doubled my money on gold, and done pretty well on silver.

while those with many more years experience in the market than i, have followed mainstream advice, and now are either broke, ruined, much poorer, or still in the market with horrible losses.

.


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## motorway (20 February 2009)

> Such a run, and even the fear that there might be a future run, boosted unemployment and amplified business cycles during the gold standard era.




The good old days

of the gold standard

You could almost set a clock by it
( non linear one of course )

expansion contraction expansion contraction
sell buy sell buy

The dynamic of tIME  looks like a compression wave
( years at the bottom of the chart )

motorway


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## Sean K (20 February 2009)

sinner said:


> Why do you keep bringing that up? Just seems like fear mongering to me...



If he keeping mentioning reinharht talking about something eventually he'll get something right. Just like he got the 9 Feb armageddon call right. 

And metric, well done on picking that the market was going to fall over. 

Nice one.


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## metric (20 February 2009)

kennas said:


> If he keeping mentioning reinharht talking about something eventually he'll get something right. Just like he got the 9 Feb armageddon call right.
> 
> And metric, well done on picking that the market was going to fall over.
> 
> Nice one.




well, shucks kennas.....

i really cant take all the credit. reinhardt said the market would crash on sept 15 2008......over 6 months in advance. i guess i just listened....

but thank you for the compliment.


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## MR. (21 February 2009)

motorway said:


> What about the action subsequent from the top ?
> 
> _The DOW really only goes up
> ( for very good reasons )
> 1929 was the exception_




So this time it is different.... yes....  (and we will not make Japan's mistakes) so the questions this time round then are :
How much money will the US need to print?   
Will the opposition become even greater against the printing as time goes on?
So.... How much will they actually print?  Will it be enough?

Perhaps the above doesn't really matter and the point is simply "it will not be as bad."  Point taken.....  However, IMHO didn't think it would.  Dropping from 380 down to 42 in three years is one hell of a fall, down to a ninth of its value in three years!  That would have made the low in the DOW this time of 1540

What do you think will be the low with the DOW this time?  Have a stab!
3500 is mine!


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## Aussiejeff (21 February 2009)

MR. said:


> So this time it is different.... yes....  (and we will not make Japan's mistakes) so the questions this time round then are :
> How much money will the US need to print?
> Will the opposition become even greater against the printing as time goes on?
> So.... How much will they actually print?  Will it be enough?
> ...




Sub 3000.


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## MR. (21 February 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> Sub 3000.




View attachment CHART 1900-2009-A-a.bmp

We know most of the things causing further potential downward presures. 

I arrived at 3500 via simply the trend line above.  Trying to Keep it in some sort of perspective.   1269% rise in 20 years 1980 - 2000. I also would not be supprised if it was sub 3000!   

3500 still means a lose of 1/2 the share market again.....
Perhaps close enough then for this long termer.   
But it's the ASX which needs further study.

Would/can you explain your sub 3000?


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## metric (21 February 2009)

reinhardt predicted the dow at 3000 a year ago.....

.


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## MR. (21 February 2009)

metric said:


> reinhardt predicted the dow at 3000 a year ago.....
> 
> .




He's miles out then. 

So he's not just days out..... he's at least a year out then!  
That's the way I read it?


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## Dowdy (21 February 2009)

metric said:


> http://api.ning.com/files/AwcqrPivB...Z82l176idQKOnW-nGw5xwaw9BwYT/1937DowJones.jpg
> 
> pure coincidence? or are the markets MANIPULATED AND TIMED?
> 
> ...





Interesting graph but that means we've already reached the bottom since the DOW is at 7300 

I think the DOW had alot more to drop before it bottoms


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## metric (21 February 2009)

MR. said:


> He's miles out then.
> 
> So he's not just days out..... he's at least a year out then!
> That's the way I read it?




no. thats not what i meant.


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## agathos (22 February 2009)

Hi everyone @ ASF,

There use to be a chart that's posted here in other threads, which I would like to share with our fellow ASF mates.

Source: _The Princeton Economic Institute, 1997. The Economic Confidence Model. _. 

I hope I can upload the chart this time.

agathos.


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