# Weekly and daily forex analysis



## mauriforex (11 December 2012)

Hi everybody!

My name is Maurizio Orsini, I'm an italian indipendent trader working in the Forex market with the Price Action Daily Method. I use to analize my charts with no indicator or oscillators but just the most important thing...the PRICE! I work with weekly and daily time frame (max H4) realizing 15-20 trades each month, respecting in a strictly way the rules of my method and especially my money mangement. I use to analize each evening, (italian time) in only 30 minutes, the Forex market searching for a signal of my trading plan and I open a position after having analized the weekly and correlation situation.
I'm not a scalper so I don't spend my time in front of my PC...I just analize for a few minutes the situation, after Wall Street closed, and if the price shows me a good opportunity (also in term of risk/reward) I take a position otherwise I just turn off my trading platform and wait the nex day!
I hope you'll enjoy my "humble opinion" and forgive my bad english.
I insert my last analysis (realized only 1 hour ago) and wish you all a nice trading time!
Cordially, Maurizio

ITALIAN CRISIS

Goodevening,

this week starts with great caution for equity markets, waiting for the European Summit for the Bank Union, but also begins with a heavy downward for Milan Stock Index.
As we already have been thinking in the weekend, the news of the resignation of Mario Monti (Italian Prime Minister) and the imminent coming back of Berlusconi led a sell-off on the list of Milan, a spread that flew upward (up to 380 points this morning, from 280 of 5 days ago!), as well as an increase in the yield of italian government bonds (and for correlation of Spanish ones). Europe does not see kindly at all the return of the previous Italian prime minister, due both to the low appreciation between the European governments and his “electoral” policy against spending cuts which could destroy what has been built in the recent months by the more esteemed Monti and his Brussell colleagues.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Cad: this pair just closed the strong downgap realized at the beginning of last night on the 1.2780 level. The retracement of this resistance area will take me to look for one of my short set up, in order to go back into the bearish short-term trend with the first target on the 1,26 support level.



That's all for today!

See you tomorrow, arrivederci.
Maurizio


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## bailx (11 December 2012)

*Re: Weekly and daily analysis*

Might get *lucky*, you think Maurisio. i also find it difficult to understand your patients?


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## mauriforex (12 December 2012)

*INTEREST RATE IN USA TOMORROW*

Goodevening,

discounted by the time the news of the resignation of Mr.Monti, stock indices rose with good movements in European stock markets also supported by the German ZEW index macro data higher than expected (6.9 in December).
We had a bullish day in the U.S. market too, which has been waiting for tomorrow's decision on interest rates and the speech of Fed Governor Bernanke (who could also speak about Fiscal Cliff).
USD had a weakly day (such as Gold and Silver) in contrast to high-yielding currencies which are moving up to resistance areas with many currency pairs.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the bullish force pushes euro up to area in 1.30. The new resistance level where I’ll look for a short signal is on area 1.3030. We'll see tomorrow how Fed’s decision will influence this pair.



Arrivederci!
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (14 December 2012)

*ECB WILL BE THE EUROPEAN FED?*

Good evening,

after a 17-hours long meeting, the Ecofin has reached a historic agreement on the Bank Supervisor. All finance ministers decided to award, from March 2014, the control of european banks to the ECB, in line with a true european integration and a gradual increase in the ECB's independence as U.S. Fed. In the same context, it was definitively ratified the aid package to Greece (in relation to the Buy Back  operation) that will receive in the next days 34 billion euros (plus another 15 billion in the 1st quarter 2013 ).
Switzerland's central bank, meanwhile, decided to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterated the goal of preventing the appreciation of the Swiss franc (and therefore the level of 1.20 as minimum price against the euro).
ECB monthly report, this morning, announced negative datas: the last quarter of 2012 has shown a major weakness in the economy and it is expected an increase of unemployment rate in the short term; the situation should gradually improve in late 2013.
Lastly, we had a weak session for stock markets, an stable euro and a rise of the USDollar.

ANALYSIS 

Gold: bad day for the yellow metal that breaks $1.700 drawing to a price level that is very interesting! Infact, the whole area between $ 1670 and $ 1690 is to be kept absolutely monitored in order to find a Buy setup according to the long-term bullish trendline.



That'all for today, see you tomorrow!	
Maurizio Orsini


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## bailx (14 December 2012)

Why would you go short EURUSD. i hear about strong EUR and negative USD. I would easpect these 2 too back resistance. don't you?


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## >Apocalypto< (14 December 2012)

bailx said:


> Why would you go short EURUSD. i hear about strong EUR and negative USD. I would easpect these 2 too back resistance. don't you?




they will have moments of weakness in a trend, so if you can catch a counter on daily or weekly that might ad up to 100+ pips but counters are tricky in timing.

on the 1 hour E$ i can see a possible sell setting up but wont be certain till the close of the current bar.


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## bailx (14 December 2012)

Sure looks Doji. and your certainly got the goss. But i'm thinking T/a. That it wants to breakout of its current range very soon.

wait for signal, you may say? i believe 1h chart will maintain its trend  tomorrow and go long. just on hindsight mind you of course may be wrong$.


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## mauriforex (14 December 2012)

Hi guys,

I'm looking for a short setup in Eur/Usd because we are near an importante resistance level (1,310 area and moreover the weekly chart shows a long term downtrend as a dynamic resistence in this level)! I don't open a position without a clear trading signal of my method and I don't analize 1h chart but only daily and sometimes H4 charts!
So let's see if the price will show the intention of a down movement to catch some good pips!
Thaks for your opinions and have a nice day!
Maurizio


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## bailx (15 December 2012)

No'worry's Maurio,

I see Eur/Usd has reached it resistance peek last night as I thought it would. My money's still on the euro bulls breaking resistance next trade. Perhaps with some shorts at the beginning of trade, given resent news and euro's versatile market. May I say I adore your patients for trading in only 4h and daily charts. I think your methodology is good, but are you missing the plot on variable stability. 
  How long does it take for you to enter a trade? Surely you don't just base everything on the news?
I'm not saying that your wrong by any means I just have a positive objective that the euro will breakout of resistance? I may be wrong as the odds are against it?
News ( headlines ) for Eur/Usd:

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are narrowing, indicating that this pair could see a price shift in the coming days.  Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is approaching the overbought zone, signaling that the shift could be downward.  Traders may want to open short positions for this pair.

I traded last night based on some other news:

Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to several German indicators, specifically the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI.  Earlier in the week, the euro saw significant gains following a better than expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure.  If either of the German indicators shows growth in the euro-zone’s biggest economy today, the euro could see additional gains before markets close for the weekend.


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## daveM (15 December 2012)

mauriforex said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> I'm looking for a short setup in Eur/Usd because we are near an importante resistance level (1,310 area and moreover the weekly chart shows a long term downtrend as a dynamic resistence in this level)! I don't open a position without a clear trading signal of my method and I don't analize 1h chart but only daily and sometimes H4 charts!
> So let's see if the price will show the intention of a down movement to catch some good pips!
> ...




I am thinking that price will retrace also, this was quite a pop upwards


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## mauriforex (15 December 2012)

Hi!
I usually enter in a trade after my evening (italian hour) analysis, at market or (expecially in this period) with a pendent break out order. I don't trade news, I just "read" the chart according to what the price is showing me in daily time frame and I take a position *only *in presence of one of my trading signals!
I learnt to be patient because I understood that 10 or 15 trades each month are sufficient to obtain a good profit
without stress or spendind the whole day in front of my PC!
Have a nice week end, greetings!
Maurizio 


bailx said:


> No'worry's Maurio,
> 
> I see Eur/Usd has reached it resistance peek last night as I thought it would. My money's still on the euro bulls breaking resistance next trade. Perhaps with some shorts at the beginning of trade, given resent news and euro's versatile market. May I say I adore your patients for trading in only 4h and daily charts. I think your methodology is good, but are you missing the plot on variable stability.
> How long does it take for you to enter a trade? Surely you don't just base everything on the news?
> ...


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## mauriforex (15 December 2012)

*WEEKLY OUTLOOK*

Hi everybody,

another week of Forex trading is over with important macroeconomic news from the United States (still waiting for the Fiscal Cliff) and Europe. Sunday will be a very important day for Japan, with the election of the new premier, and I "see" an increase in Yen volatility due to the consequences of the monetary policy that will be realized in case of Mr. Shinzo Abe's victory.
Here you can see some interesting chart situation for the next week!

Aud/Nzd: after touching 1.2520 resistance area, the price closed below 1.25 . I will look for a possible return on the previous resistance level to find the opportunity to sell at a better price.



Eur/Gbp: the price is rising up to 0.8160 resistance area where, in the next few days, I will try to find a short set up with first profit target in 0.8090 level.



Eur/Usd: the U.S. production macro data has led to the up movement of the most important pair. The price has reached the important resistance area of 1.3170 where I will look for (even in H4 tf) a short signal of my trading method to enter a downward movement with first target in area 1.30 .



Usd/Yen: in the resistance level 83.70 the price reacts with a bearish candle. I won't trade this signal because of the uncertainty that japanese elections will generate. According to the medium and short term uptrend I prefer to wait for a pullback to 81.80 support area to find a Long signal.



I wish you all a nice weekend, see you next monday!
Maurizio


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## TulipFX (16 December 2012)

Hi mauriforex,

I like your charts. Your entries look very reasonable. Would you mind adding in stop and profit levels?


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## bailx (16 December 2012)

Maurio,

Interesting concepts, I see there's a lot of selling going on 'Any particular reason?
I hope in time I will learn and pick up your strategy. Maybe I will be able to devise a system, to go inside with my trading. Perhaps use this to re-assure my own T/A. 'I hope you don't mind?

Anyway don't let me rain down on your parade! I'm always one to speak my mind and I like to keep a conscious objective. ' Maybe I'll pick up a few tips? As I'm sure you do. 

As an Intraday trader I'm very speculative on your results. Much like _TulipFX_. 'How do you aquire your Buy Sell signals? 'Being on a Day & 4H chart basis, to trade successfully, you still need to be able to pin point or forecast your trade set up for better Returns? 

'What is a pendant breakout order?

You have a good week end yourself.


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## mauriforex (17 December 2012)

Thank you but it's an analysis of a possible situation not an entry because there is not yet a trading signal! Without a clear trading setup of my method I dont' enter and I still can't say the levels of SL and TP!
Bye!
Maurizio



TulipFX said:


> Hi mauriforex,
> 
> I like your charts. Your entries look very reasonable. Would you mind adding in stop and profit levels?


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## mauriforex (17 December 2012)

Hi Bailx,
there is a lot of possible selling oportunities because many pairs are in key resistance levels (and I usually use to Sell on resistances and Buy on supports)!The Price Action Daily method is "simple" and clear and I obviously don't mind if you want to use it as your trading system, you only need patience and high discipline..
I just work with 2-3 trading set up, basicly following the trend,and using the most important price levels of the chart to fix supports and resistences before and Stop loss and Take profit later! I have this key levels drawn in the chart and I just wait the price in those levels. When the price is there I wait for a trading set up to enter in the market: if there is no entry set up...I just look another pair or turn off my PC until the following day!
I wish a nice sunday to you too, arrivederci!
Maurizio



bailx said:


> Maurio,
> 
> Interesting concepts, I see there's a lot of selling going on 'Any particular reason?
> I hope in time I will learn and pick up your strategy. Maybe I will be able to devise a system, to go inside with my trading. Perhaps use this to re-assure my own T/A. 'I hope you don't mind?
> ...


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## mauriforex (17 December 2012)

Sorry I forgot your question!
I didn't write correctly: I wanted to write "*PENDING *breakout order" that is a Sell Stop Order whis is realized when the price hits, with its downmove, the selling level you have fixed!
Greetings



mauriforex said:


> Hi Bailx,
> there is a lot of possible selling oportunities because many pairs are in key resistance levels (and I usually use to Sell on resistances and Buy on supports)!The Price Action Daily method is "simple" and clear and I obviously don't mind if you want to use it as your trading system, you only need patience and high discipline..
> I just work with 2-3 trading set up, basicly following the trend,and using the most important price levels of the chart to fix supports and resistences before and Stop loss and Take profit later! I have this key levels drawn in the chart and I just wait the price in those levels. When the price is there I wait for a trading set up to enter in the market: if there is no entry set up...I just look another pair or turn off my PC until the following day!
> I wish a nice sunday to you too, arrivederci!
> Maurizio


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## bailx (17 December 2012)

My apologies,' My bad, a very stupid question. i already know what a pendant is, it works very close to the flags and indeed gives out the breakout order. ( Flags ) represent pauses while a trend consolidates and are reliable continuation signals ( Pennants ) in a strong trend. I seriously need to work on my daily trading.  Whoops!!!



mauriforex said:


> Sorry I forgot your question!
> I didn't write correctly: I wanted to write "*PENDING *breakout order" that is a Sell Stop Order whis is realized when the price hits, with its downmove, the selling level you have fixed!
> Greetings


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## daveM (17 December 2012)

We will have to see what the coming days show, as the Christmas approaches it may be a bit risky to be entering the markets.

Many traders are away from trading now until the New Year and that could skew a trading plan.


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## >Apocalypto< (17 December 2012)

sellers flanked, this why analyzing a market is pointless you have to act off what it's telling you now at your personal entry point. any NY session sellers in the eur usd just took a 79 pip hit with this mornings Gap. The market is bullish atm and I will be looking for longs until things change. 

good trading.


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## mauriforex (18 December 2012)

*YEN SELL OFF*

Good evening,

stock market seems to feel the spirit of Christmas and closed with indecision, also waiting for news about the U.S. Fiscal Cliff.
Yesterday, as I announced in my weekly video last Friday, the Liberal Democrat Shinzo Abe won japanese election confirming its expansionary monetary policy ideas. This has led to a strong sell-off in the Yen and caused for all major pairs, with which it is compared, a downgap opening: next important appointment is for Thursday, with the interest rate decision by the BoJ to understand how Mr.Abe’s idea will be developed.
Tomorrow, from Australia, we expect the Minute of the RBA to check its position after the rate cut that just took place.

ANALYSIS	

Eur/Nzd: we had another day of moderate rise with this cross that is now on the intermediate resistance area of 1.5630 where we might find tomorrow a possible short setup. The target of an eventual return of the downmove is the support area 1.5470.



See you tomorrow!	
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (19 December 2012)

*MARKETS HAVE A POSITIVE OUTLOOK*

Goodevening,

another positive day for equity markets influenced by the last bullish performance of Wall Street (which discounted the probable agreement about Fiscal Cliff within this month) and let Euro run over resistences.
The RBA’s Minute has raised, today, the possibility of an extension of the actual expansionary policy, with other possible interest rate cuts during 2013.
Good news for the Spanish government bonds sale (fully placed and with a lower interest!) which has strengthened not only the Ibex of Madrid, but the Euro currency too.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Cad: the Euro bullish movement continues and, against the Canadian Dollar, reached the important resistance area of 1.3050. In this level I will wait for a possible Sell setup of trend reversal, considering as a first target the area 1.2750. Otherwise, in case of break up (confirmed) I will try to get into a possible upmove to the new resistance level at 1.3240.



Have a nice trading everyone! 
Arrivederci, Maurizio


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## mauriforex (20 December 2012)

*YEN: WAITING FOR BANK OF JAPAN*

Good evening,

also this day shows us euphoria in european financial markets which are discounting the possible U.S. agreement between Republicans and Democrats. The euro continues its “flight” in the first part of the trading session (against the dollar has already reached the top level of  May 2012) pushed up not only by a weak Usd, after Fed QE4, but also by the positive news of this morning about IFO data in Germany (better than expected).
In the Minute of this morning, the governor of the Bank of England, Mr.Miles, said that the decision (in December 5) against the adding of asset purchase has been voted by eight of the nine members of the Council and that the only vote against has been his one (moved by his conviction to create a greater incentive for production without generating a price increase).
Tomorrow let’s be careful, for those who have positions in yen, to the BoJ rate decision and the further indication about a possible new quantitative easing.

ANALYSIS

US Oil: the weakness of USD is strengthening WTI oil that comes close to the top of short/medium term laterality. In the resistance level $ 89.50 / $ 90 (if it won't be broken!) I'll try to look for a short setup of my trading system to enter into a possible bearish movement with a first target in area $ 85.



Greetings to everybody, 
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (21 December 2012)

*NEW QE IN JAPAN*

Good evening,

this morning the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, however, announcing an increase in the asset purchase of about 10 trillion yen and a revision of inflation target up to next january.
Officially ended in Greece Buyback operation with the repurchase by the government of the amount of its debt of 32 billion euro.
Better than expected the data of U.S. production (+3,1%) meanwhile politicians continue to work in order to reach to the important deal of these days!
The week will close tomorrow with the macro data on GDP in Britain and Canada.

ANALYSIS

Copper: last tuesday I sell this commodity according to a bearish daily set upet of my trading plan.  Yesterday I moved my stop loss to a zero risk level (my entry level) and a few hours ago closed the position with a good profit (also considering the initial r/r relation!). This is price action daily with no indicators but only the price!



Greetings to everybody, 
Maurizio


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## bailx (21 December 2012)

Interesting week

Took full advantage of the weaker JPY, earlier this week given the recent elections and the stronger EUR. I had a lot of success trading this pair as the JPY found resistance. Looking forward to today's. After recent announcements. I expect the EUR to struggle to find support. I can only assume that the JPY can only get stronger from here. As Abe will push the Japanese economy back on track.

*Quote:*

_A day after the election, Abe called on the BOJ to boost its monetary stimulus at a two-day meeting that ends on *Thursday* and pressed it to adopt a 2 percent inflation target, double its current price goal, as soon as next month._
_The report came a day after the Bank of Japan delivered its third shot of monetary stimulus in four months, as it faces growing pressure from incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for bolder action to beat deflation._

And of course as common Analysis will assume that other JPY currency pairs will follow suit.


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## bailx (21 December 2012)

Accordantly I may well be wrong I can't expect Abe to solve Japan's Inflation over night, The JPY market channels as we speak. A very UN decisive market is the JPY . The EUR Pushing strongly of  their biggest asset Germany.
_*Quote:*_ _higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. 
Understanding that the JPY is also losing on the industry front. I know I got out on the wrong side of bed this morning, with my eyes all twined back, believing that I ruled the world. But I still concur the The JPY will Bounce back into it's own in the near future ATM.

EUR/USD and Yen Crosses at Extreme Risk of Retracement.

*"The share market has dropped sharply into negative territory after the latest blow to hopes of a deal in the United States to avoid the fiscal cliff."

*_


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## mauriforex (22 December 2012)

*WEEKLY ANALYSIS*

Good morning,

we are at the end of another week, the last before Christmas, with the Fiscal Cliff problem still unsolved (although we have only a few days to go!). We have seen several up and down movements that a “normal” situation of the market, probably, wouldn’t have generated. Now we’ll have a few holidays with short trading time, closing sessions
and less liquidity in the market in the hope that the New Year could star with greater certainty especially from a technical point of view.
I prepared, as usual, my weekly analysis for a quick review of the situation.

ANALYSIS

Aud/Nzd: after the bullish rally we could see a technical pullback from the 1.2670 resistance area where I will try to look for short trading set up. Of course, in case of a continuation of the rise I will search for a pull back on that level to find an entry point for the bullish movement.



Eur/Usd: the short-term movement is bullish, so we can search a long set up after the technical pullback in area 1,3120 / 1,3170.



Nzd/Usd: the strong rise of last week has been canceled by the reduction of the current one. The short term trend is bearish, so we will look for a sell signal on the retracement in area 0,83 .



Oil WTI: the resistance area at $90 seems to produce its effect and the price might be ready for a new fall that would target the area of 85.50. A possible, "last", level to resume the bearish movement might be a momentary retest of $89.30 area.



I wish you a happy Holy Christmas and see you with my daily analysis next Wednesday 26 December.
Happy Christmas!
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (27 December 2012)

Good evening,

Christmas time continues with the closure of the main European stock exchanges and the wait for the decision on Fiscal Cliff. In this regard, President Obama will return tonight from Hawaii to be ready for the last two available days in which, in my opinion, a temporary agreement will be found.
Today we also had the press conference of the new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who announced a bold monetary policy and a flexible fiscal policy.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Aud: another bullish day for Euro that approximates this cross to 1.28 area where we could see a correction of the entire bullish movement. If this happens, a short trading set up would have as a first target the 1.2580 price level. Otherwise a bullish break could produce a continuation of the rise to the new resistance area at 1.30



Greetings to everybody, 
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (28 December 2012)

*WAITING FOR A SOLUTION*

Good evening,

we are in the last hours to solve the Fiscal Cliff problem with financial markets still on hold.
Today we had two important US macro datas: the jobless claim and the consumer confidence (lower than expected).
The Dollar Index has been stronger compared to yesterday; Gold and Silver are still uncertain even considering the positive session.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the most important currency pair shows another bullish session back to the 1.33 resistance area where it would be interesting to look for a bearish signal (always being careful to what happens in the U.S.)



Greetings to everybody, 
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (29 December 2012)

*WEEKLY ANALYSIS*

Good morning,

we are in the last week of this 2012 which brought good job results and important macroeconomic news. We are very close to a solution (positive or negative) for Fiscal Cliff and this, as well as affecting the risk aversion, will certainly make it less difficult for us to analyze and trade.
I leave you with my usual weekly outlook and I wish all of you a wonderful beginning of the new year, full of peace and serenity for your families!

ANALYSIS

Aud/Usd: this currency pair is in a bearish short period trend. A correction in 1.04 area would be interesting to find a short set up with first target on 1.0280 level.



Eur/Usd: the level 1.3120 could be, in case of downward correction, a good point where searching for a long signal with target on area 1.33.



Nzd/Usd: very similar to the Aussie in his short short-term trend. A continuation of the pullback in the 0.8270 area would be a good opportunity to look for a bearish entry. The area 0,81 is still very important for a possible long set up in order to resume the bullish medium / long term trend.



Oil: not very related to Usd in these days, it’s located in a bullish short period phase. A long set up of my trading plan in support area $ 90 might get me back into a buying position.



See you Wednesday January 2, happy New Year!
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (3 January 2013)

*TIME OUT FOR FISCAL CLIFF*

Good evening,

the 2013 begins with the news of the final approval, by the U.S. Congress, of the Cliff deal. Just a few hours before the end of the year, it has been possible to limit the tax increase to those people with an income of more than 400-450 thousand Dollars annually. In the same deal it has been postponed the decision on spending cuts and confirmed that one about unemployment benefits.
The reaction of the stock market has been, as expected, strongly positive with many buy orders of stocks and euros (in the first part of the session) as well as a selloff of conservative currencies (with a strongest USD in the second part of the day).
Tomorrow we will have the Fed analysis with the usual Minute of FOMC meeting.

ANALYSIS

Gold: the strong initial dollar sell off has put wings to the metals which broke resistance levels. Gold rises above the important static and dynamic level of $1680 where I’ll look for a pullback in order to find a possible Long set up and return in the long-term uptrend.



See you tomorrow,
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (4 January 2013)

*TOMORROW NFPR*

Good evening,

the "fiscal cliff" effect, which yesterday brought up the stock market, had a reduction in today's session not only for technical profit-takings but also in consequence of IMF spokesman statement according to which Us measures are not yet sufficient to ensure U.S.long term health. Thus Moody's also highlighted the risk of a down rating if there won’t be effective policies to contain the deficit and public debt.
In Europe, german unemployment remained stable at around 7% (with an increase of unemployed lower than expected).
We just had the FOMC meeting which showed a clear disagreement between the same members of the Fed, about a continuation of QE, generating strong dollar purchases that have driven down the euro-dollar and commodities.
Tomorrow, as first Friday of the month, we’ll take careful to volatility that will be generated with the No Farm Payrolls data.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the price broke down the 1.31 level and a confirmation of the weakness of the Euro could push this pair to the next support area of 1.30. In this case it would be good to find a short set up after a technical correction to the previous level.



See you tomorrow!
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (5 January 2013)

*WEEKLY ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

the No Farm Payrolls data have generated the usual volatility of the earlier days of each month; monday we should return to the "ordinary situation"!
As every weekend, I leave you with my usual weekly analysis to be prepared for the next opening of the market.

ANALYSIS

Aud/Nzd: the Oceania cross reacted strongly on the resistance level of 1.27 with a bearish daily candle. The breaking down of the level 1.2580 could bring this pair to 1.2480 area and then to 1.24 area.



Eur/Usd: after the down break of the laterality of last week, this pair had two very bearish sessions going very close to the 1.30 support area and then reacting after NFPR. The goal is to return into the short term bearish movement (with the target on area 1.2850) after a possible pullback on the intermediate resistance 1.31.



Oil: it tried a downward correction but the strength of buyers moved the price back to 93.30 resistance area. The break of this level could push the WTI to the next important level 94.60 and then, in the medium term, to the area ​​$ 99.



Gold: the NFPR data pushed the price up to area $1650 after the re-tested on $1625. The short term trend is still bearish and only a confirmed break of the $1680 level could let us re-evaluate a purchase of the yellow metal.



Have a good weekend and see you next monday.
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (8 January 2013)

*USD FOR SALE*

Goodnight,

this week begins with few economic data, waiting for the interest rate decisions in Europe and the UK on Thursday.
Today was released the Producer Prices Index of November, in the euro zone, which was slightly decreased (but in line with expectations).
Equity markets were weak and substantially below the previous close with a bearish US dollar and a strong euro especially in the second part of the day.

ANALYSIS

Nzd/Usd: it broke the resistance level 0.8310 (top of the last Friday pin candle) and it's close to the new important area 0.8470 where (considering the weak dollar) it could arrive in 2-3 sessions. In that level I will look for a short term  opportunity to sell the kiwi.



See you tomorrow!
Maurizio


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## mauriforex (9 January 2013)

*EURO IN RESISTANCE LEVELS*

Good evening,

european stock markets opened and closed this session near the previous level, and always waiting for the euro decisions of thursday.
The dollar reacts on the supports; Japanese Yen continues its technical recovery phase; Gold and Silver are still in an unclear short-term situation.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Aud: the weakness of the euro produced a short pin bar in 1,2530 key level. Now we could see a continuation of the short term down movement, after the break of the bearish flag, with first target on 1,2330 area and then 1,2170 level.



See you tomorrow!
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (10 January 2013)

*ECB AND BOE: MARKET IS WAITING*

Good evening,

the good data of industrial production in Germany (+0.2% in November) pushes up the equity markets that "see" the next ECB meeting of tomorrow in which, according to most analysts, there won't be some change in the interest rate and monetary policy.
We had a bullish session for the US dollar and weakness for Gold, Silver and Copper. Meanwhile it's continuing the bearish movement for Natural Gas.

ANALYSIS
Ngas: natural gas is on a clear downward movement of short/medium term and, right in today's session, broke down the support level at $ 3.160. The trend is obvious and linear and therefore I will wait for a possible pullback up to the broken level to find an interesting Sell opportunity Sell with first target at $ 3.050 and then $ 2.950 .



Greetings to everybody!
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (11 January 2013)

*BCE AND BOE: NO CHANGE!*

Good evening,

as expected: the Bank of England kept interest rate unchanged at 0.50% (and buying assets at 375 billion pounds) as well as the ECB which left its rate at 0.75%.
The initial jobless claims in the U.S. was higher than analysts foresaw and rose to 371k vs 365k expected.
Stock indices remained at the same level of the previous session (Italian index had a better performance) while, in the Forex market, we had a weak day for US Dollar and a strong one for commodities (especially for Gold and Silver).

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: after two days of retracement, Japanese Yen is still weak against the USD and the currency pair goes up. The break up of 88.40 area could accelerate the upward movement until the next major resistance level at 89.50 where we have the take profit of out Long position!



Greetings to everybody!
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (12 January 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

this week started with little volatility and without very important economic news however it's ending with a strong wave of risk and high yield currency purchase (after the ECB announcement on Thursday). Several currency pairs reached important price levels and you can see some interesting opportunities in my Weekly Video Outlook.
Happy weekend to everybody and see you next Monday!
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (15 January 2013)

Good evening,

today, without very important economic data, stock indices started the week positively and then got weaker in the course of the session.
Waiting for Mr.Ben Bernanke's speech, the U.S. dollar remains in the same range of previous days as well as the main commodities.

ANALYSIS
Copper: after another test of the key level $ 3.710, the price reacted with 2 bearish candles, breaking out during the session the support zone in $ 3.650. Price action shows a clear strength of the sellers that could push down the price to the area $ 3.535 firstly and $ 3.440 after.



Have a nice trading and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (16 January 2013)

*US DOWNGRADE?*

Good evening,

after the speech of Bernanke and Obama, about the confirmation of the Fed's monetary expansion and the problem of the debt limit, the markets had a negative session caused by the Fitch warning of a US downgrade. 
The U.S. dollar, originally affected by Bernanke's words, reacted with all currencies (except the yen) in the second part of the session and after the good Retail Sales and PPI data.
Euro has been weak due to the publication of the German Consumer Price Index and GDP data (both lower than expected).
The upmove of precious metals continues, reaching interesting buying levels (especially Silver).

ANALYSIS	
Usd/Yen: today I closed a good deal in profit at the beginning of the bearish technical correction. Japanese Yen still remains a weak currency with a devaluation outlook, so I still see a Long scenario and I’ll wait a possible retracement to the support area at 88.10 or, it would be better, 87 to find an interesting setup of my trading system.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (17 January 2013)

*DAILY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

stock markets had a weak first part of the session, as seen yesterday, inverting the trend in the second half. Different news from Europe and USA affected not only equity markets, but even Euro which confirms its indecision with almost all major currencies.
The U.S. dollar is strengthening as well as Japanese Yen, Gold and Silver.
Good session for WTI Crude Oil which retested $93 area rebounding up to $94 (note that tomorrow the monthly contract of this Cfd will expire!).
I prepared a daily video analysis to show you all my open positions and other interesting opportunities!
Have a nice trading!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (18 January 2013)

*YEN SELL OFF*

Good evening,

the ECB monthly report showed, today, a possible and gradual economic recovery in 2013 (thanks to a greater consumer confidence) and an inflation rate, this year, below 2%.
The negative data in the Australian labor market (fewer employees) put the Australian dollar weaker, waiting for the " correlation test " of tomorrow with the release of Chinese GDP data.
The stock market ended a positive session, after a weak opening, thanks to the positive American data of the real estate situation in december (better than expected) and of the jobless claims (lower than expected).
We had a good session for the Dollar Index as well as for the most important commodities.
Pay attention tomorrow to volatility that could arise with the usual Confidence Index issued by the University of Michigan!

ANALYSIS	
Usd/Yen and Aud/Yen: as we saw yesterday, in my daily video analysis, all currencies related to Japanese Yen had a strong bullish movement due to heavy selling of the japanese currency. As announced I took long positions in Usd and Aud placing pending Buy Limit orders considering a possible temporary retracement of the price in order to have a better risk/reward ratio and improve my performance. Both orders were achieved and are generating very good profits. For both trades I’ve been closing a 50% of my position, moving my stop loss to break even. Now I wait for a possible break out of the resistance levels (confirmed) to see an upward move and obtaining a greater reward with my two free-risk operations!







Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow with the weekly video!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (19 January 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

we are at the end of another week without strong market movers, with the exception of the U.S. data released yesterday (about real estate and labor sector) that caused a new wave of “risk buying".
Next week we will have the interest rate decision in Japan (it will be very interesting to analyze the actions of its Central Bank!) and in Canada.
Let’s consider all these things, and more, in my usual Weekly Video Analysis!

Happy weekend and relax without trading!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## bailx (20 January 2013)

USD/JPY to reach 95.00

Since the 8th of this month, being watching & taking full advantage of the falling GBP due to British Pound: U.K. Retail Sales Disappoints, BoE to Weigh New Policies.


----------



## mauriforex (22 January 2013)

*BOJ TOMORROW*

Good evening,

Mr. Obama officially began his second term becoming the 44th President of the United States on the day that Wall Street was closed for Martin Luther King's Day.
The lower liquidity and the negative data on industrial production in Germany (1.5% and lower than expected) has generated a flat session with positive values.
The Eurogroup meeting today will decide, among other things, the new chairman that will replace Mr.Junker (the current Dutch finance minister Mr. Joroen Dijsselbloem is expected to be elected). From Japan we will have tomorrow the decision on interest rate by the BoJ.

ANALYSIS	
Eur/Usd: continues its lateral move, amplified today by the lower liquidity in the market. However, we are close to the support 1.3280 with the EMA21 approaching the price. The idea is to look for a trading setup in the direction of the short term move, that is Long, with a first target on area 1.34. On the contrary, the breaking out of the level mentioned above could push the price to the next key area (static and dynamic) of 1.32 .



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (23 January 2013)

*QE IN JAPAN FROM 2014*

Good evening,

as expected interest rates in Japan remained unchanged with an inflation target at 2% (to be reached as soon as possible). The BoJ confirmed the plan of asset purchase (13 thousand billion yen), but only since 2014. This delay of the quantitave easying led Yen to continue its strengthen and the bearish correction with many currency pairs.
Stock market closed a negatice session (except Milan) despite Zew index on german confidence which has been much better than expected.
Tomorrow we'll have the interest rate decision in Canada.

ANALYSIS 
Usd/Yen: the pair retested again 90.10 resistance area but the news from Japan pushed it down. The medium and short remains bullish so I will look for the price to continue in the support area 88 or 87 to find a Long set up of my trading plan.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (24 January 2013)

*DAILY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

in a quitely contrasted day for equity markets, we had from Canada the confirmation of interest rate at 1%.
Anyway the most interesting news came from UK with its Prime Minister Mr. Cameron confirming the referendum (before 2017) to establish the permanence or the exit of his country from EU and the Bank of England's Minute. This one showed (with the unanimous maintenance of the rate at 0.50% and almost unanimously not to increase the purchase of assets) as for now there's no possibility for another quantitative easing, taking the pound to appreciate during this session.

I just prepared my video analysys with some interesting possible operations!

See you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (25 January 2013)

*NEW YEN SELL OFF*

Good evening,

also today stock markets had a low volatility session just moving at the same levels as yesterday.
The good PMI manufacturing data of Germany and UE have favored the upward move of the Euro (initially weak) in a day characterized mainly by the new pressure of Japanese government to BoJ, for a stronger action to depreciate the Yen (also considering the recent and worst japanese export data). The effect was an obvious sell-off of this currency that I and the other Forex Friends have immediately evaluated yesterday (with the help of Price Action Daily as we saw in my video analysis) and realized with a couple of excellent trades still in profit.






ANALYSIS	
Silver: after having approached, yesterday, the resistance area $32.50 the price rebounded also because of the strength of the USD. According to the short-term uptrend, I will wait for one of my trading signals in the $31.50 key level, or better yet, in area $ 31.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (27 January 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hi traders,

we had another bullish day for equity market in this last session of the week. From Europe we had a good IFO data on German business confidence (better than expected) and, from England, the GDP of the third quarter of 2012 (worse than expected) showing a still weak British economy.
I prepared my usual weekly video to see the most important data of the economic calendar for next week and some interesting trading opportunities.

Have a nice week-end and see you next monday!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (29 January 2013)

*NEW POSSIBLE APPRECIATION OF THE EURO*

Good evening,

at the beginning of this last week of January stock markets have been moderately contrasted, waiting for the important Fed meeting (next Wednesday) to decide on interest rates.
In Forex market we had a technical correction for the euro and the yen, after the strong movements of the previous week, while precious metals and oil continue to be weak.

ANALYSIS 
Eur/Aud: the medium term shows a possible bullish head and shoulder that could reach, after the breakout of level 1.30, a possible medium term target on 1.4250 which corresponds to the top level of August 2011. In the short term, we might also anticipate a buy entry in presence of a clear set up of my trading system on the support key level 1.28.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (30 January 2013)

*US INTEREST RATE TOMORROW*

Good evening,

we had another day without very important economic market movers (except a good consumer confidence index in Germany and the same one from Usa, lower than expected), a session with different directions for the major stock markets and a continuation of the technical correction of the Euro.
Tomorrow we will have the interest rate decision in New Zealand and, expecially, in the United States: beware the volatility.

ANALYSIS	
Gbp/Usd: sterling finally had the strength to correct upwards (also taking advantage of the weakness of the USD). I'll be looking for one of my trading signals in the area 1.5780 / 1.58 to catch the bearish movement with a target on the support level 1.55.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (31 January 2013)

*NO CHANGE IN INTEREST RATES*

Good evening,

stock markets moved down today with the U.S. indices always on top levels as well as the euro that, versus japanese yen, is coming to the top of three years ago.
No change in interest rate decisions with the Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that kept rates at the current levels of 0.25% and 2.50%.
Tomorrow we expect from Germany the Unemployment Rate and the CPI and from U.S. the Jobless Claims data.
I just prepared my daily video analysis, enjoy it!

See you tomorrow.
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (1 February 2013)

*NFPR TOMORROW*

Good evening,

Investors ‘take profits continued today in stock markets which closed below the previous levels.
From Germany we had some positive data, relative to the decrease in January of unemployment and consumer price index, waiting to see tomorrow from the United States and the usual key market movers on the market of non-farm labor.
In Forex market we had a weak day for Euro and for the major commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil).

ANALYSIS	
Oil WTI: the bullish trend is clear and evident with one or two correction candles in the different accumulation sessions. We could see a downward move to area $ 96.80/97 with the opportunity to evaluate a good long entry signal with a first target on level $99 and then $101.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (2 February 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

another week is over with a bullish session for stock markets and the usual volatility due to Non Farm Payrolls.
Now we prepare for next market opening with the important interest rate decisions in Australia, England and Europe.
New month, new goals and to the same interesting weekly Outllook to plan our job in Forex.

Good night and have a nice weekend.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## bailx (2 February 2013)

Certainly been a positive, and bullish week for the EUR. Will it keep trend and hold momentum? Still has ground to cover on fronts. As it still holds strong against all major and weaker currency's, USD, AUD, GBP, JPY. TA suggest possible reversal, but fundamentals indicate Positive results EUR.
AUD consolidates a downtrend due to recent flooding. Recovery unknown.
USD weaker dollar, global stability and growth.
JPY Continues to weaken the Yen in order to support there exports industry.
GBP Low yield and unattractive growth, speculates the U.K.

Interesting to see how far the EUR can take it. "Party Hard"


----------



## mauriforex (5 February 2013)

*ITALY AND SPAIN FRIGHTEN MARKETS*

Good evening,

today we had a decline in the PPI of the euro zone (-0.2% compared to the previous month in line with expectations). Bad news from spanish labor market with an increase in unemployment of 2.7% compared to the first month of the year and with a total number of nearly 5 million people without a job.
The stock markets closed a session characterized by profit-taking with heavy falls, especially for Milan and Madrid due to their difficult political situations.
Tomorrow we will have the interest rates decision in Australia with the RBA expected to keep the current level of 3% but...let's pay attention to any bearish surprise!

ANALYSIS	
Oil: the accumulation phase of WTI continues although it seems to reach the support area $ 95.50. A clear bullish signal would be interesting to try a new entry in the upward move with a first target level $ 99 and then $ 101.



Greetings to everybody, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (6 February 2013)

*NEW STRENGTH OF THE EURO*

Good evening,

the australian interest rate did not change (it's still at 3%) but there was an opening, by the RBA, to future cuts and this  made Australian dollar very weak.
Pending the same decision of the ECB, on Thursday, we had negative data from the euro area with a sharp drop in retail sales in December (-3.4% vs 1.4% expected).
Stock markets tried to recover after yesterday's crash, but are still weak and waiting.
Tomorrow we will not have significant market movers!

ANALYSIS 
Eur/Usd: after testing the support level 1.3450 in intraday session, it reacts and moves just below 1.36. The confirmed break of this level could push this pair to the resistance level 1.37 and then at 1.3850 area.



Have a nice trading, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## bailx (6 February 2013)

*Re: The Stronger EURO*

The stronger EURO continues to break through all major market..................


----------



## mauriforex (7 February 2013)

*DAILY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

while waiting for the interest rate decisions of tomorrow, I prepared my usual daily video analysis!!
Enjoy it and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (8 February 2013)

*A STRONG EURO? NO PROBLEM!*

Good evening,

as the previous month nothing changed in the “Europe” rate decisions. Mr.Mario Draghi has confirmed the euro zone rate at 0.75% announcing a continuation of the flexible monetary policy. The overall situation remains weak, with a possible recovery in the second half of the year and an inflation rate under control at 2%. The governor of the ECB has expressed no concern about the appreciation of the euro (mainly due to an increase in investors’confidence) and showed how the currency could affect price levels but, anyway, it’s not a political target of the ECB.
Even the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged (0.50%) as well as the asset purchase (375 billion pounds per month).

ANALYSIS	
Eur/Gbp: the cross continues its technical correction approaching the support area 0.85. A clear Long signal of my trading method in this level (but even better in the weekly support area 0.84!) could be interesting to resume the current bullish movement with a first target in area 0.87 and a second one in the resistance level 0.89.



Enjoy your trading and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (9 February 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

another week is over with our trading in Forex, with several interest rate decisions and technical corrections for euro.
I prepared my weekly video analysis to see the economic situation and some opportunities for next week.

Thanks and have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (12 February 2013)

*METALS FALL*

Good evening,

today we had no special market mover and stock markets have been rather weak. Euro and dollar recovered while precious metals continue their downward move.
Tomorrow we'll be listening to three interesting speeches realized by the governors of the central banks of Switzerland, Canada and Europe.

ANALYSIS	
Silver: another bearish candle for this metal that moves just above the support level $ 30.80 . A confirmed break out would be interesting to search for a pullback (with one of my trading signals) and going short with target $ 29.80 and then $ 29. On the contrary, a rebound in this support, with a clear and strong bullish signal, could represent a Long opportunity with a target area on $ 32.50.



Enjoy your trading and see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (13 February 2013)

*MR.DRAGHI IN SPAIN*

Good evening,

stock markets closed this session with a slight rise and a good performance of the Spanish Ibex. The governor of the ECB Mr.Mario Draghi (in his meeting with the spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy) said that the euro appreciation is due to an increased confidence in the eurozone, that the currency is not a political target of the ECB and that, probably, some alarmist claims about the strength of the euro have been inapposite.
From Japan we had an improvement in consumer confidence, waiting for the GDP and the interest rate decision of tomorrow (expected unchanged at 0.10%). Tomorrow we will also have the data on U.S. retail sales and the speech of Mr.King, governor of the Bank of England.

ANALYSIS	
Copper: we are in a short/medium term uptrend, in a retracement move close to an interesting support area ($ 3.71) where we could look for a long setup of my trading system with a first target on level $3.78 and then $3.84. In case of a bearish breakout we could find a better buying opportunity with a long signal in the weekly support level $3.55.



Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (14 February 2013)

*DAILY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,

today's session was characterized by a particular weakness of the pound, after the Bank of England report, and a moderate rise for equity markets.
In a few hours we will focus on Japan with the GDP and the interest rate decision.
Let’s see all these macro news and the most interesting trading opportunities in my daily video analysis.

Enjoy it!    
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (15 February 2013)

*GDP SINKS THE EURO*

Good evening,

today we had a negative session for the principal stock markets, as well as for the euro, because of the negative data came from Germany and France (with a GDP lower than expected in the last quarter of 2012) and a third consecutive recession quarter in the euro area (-0.9% at the end of December 2012). The ECB monthly report was less negative highlighting the greater cohesion within the European markets and the best climate of confidence from firms and consumers, according to the available indicators.
Even in Japan there was a contraction in GDP with the Bank of Japan that decided to keep the interest rate at 0.10% (as expected) as well as the policy of assett purchase.
Tomorrow we will have the important market mover of the University of Michigan Confidence and the G20, with the finance ministers and central bank governors, to be held in Moscow.

ANALYSIS	
Eur/Yen: another weak day for this currency pair mainly due to the strong sell-off of the euro. We are next to the static and dynamic support 123,50 where I definitely will be looking for one of my trading signals in order to return in the upward move. Any breakout, however, could push the pair lower to the next important level 121 (and this, indeed, is something not so improbable looking at bearish weekly pin candle drawing right now).



Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (16 February 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,
as every Friday I realized my weekly analysis to show you the most interesting opportunities of the market.

Have a good weekend and see you Monday!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## cogs (16 February 2013)

Nice ongoing analysis mauriforex.

I remember going to many seminars (in a past life it seems), trying to sell their wears that would never share analysis you are sharing.

Good work in putting your money/trades out there for all to see.


----------



## mauriforex (16 February 2013)

Thank you very much Cogs...it's because I'm a trader firstly and then an analyst and advisor!
People want to see real situations and not only words!!
Have a nice day,greetings!
Maurizio



cogs said:


> Nice ongoing analysis mauriforex.
> 
> I remember going to many seminars (in a past life it seems), trying to sell their wears that would never share analysis you are sharing.
> 
> Good work in putting your money/trades out there for all to see.


----------



## mauriforex (19 February 2013)

*THE DEPRECIATION OF THE YEN IS POSSIBLE*

Good evening,

while U.S. stock exchange has been closed today for Washington's Birthday, the main stock markets had a contrasted session with low volatility.
During the weekend the G-20 has essentially given the "green light" to Japan for its expansionary monetary policy, denying, in fact, the existence of a "currency war" (the ECB itself has also stressed that the Eur/Usd exchange is located within a "normal range" and the Eur/Yen pair is in a "not dramatic" appreciation level).
From Germany we had today the forecast of a higher a growth in the first quarter of 2013 and we will see tomorrow, about this, the result of the monthly confidence index ZEW.

ANALYSIS	
US Oil: today (with the opening of the new monthly contract) the price is falling and approaching the important support level in area $ 94 - 94.80. It will be interesting to evaluate its stregth to verify the possible continuation of the medium term upward movement (and any possible Long signal) or a reversal move, in case of breakout, with bearish targets on levels $ 92.50 and $ 90.



Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (20 February 2013)

*RISK ON WITH A POSITIVE ZEW*

Good evening,

the important German ZEW index was higher than expected (so we had an increase in the confidence of the German economy) and this led to a rise in major European stock indices and especially in the Dax. We'll see tomorrow if also the Consumer Prices Index in Germany will confirm this positive situation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, in his Minute, showed a slight optimism about the economic recovery (causing a rise in its currency) but it stressed anyway the possibility of future interest rate cuts.

ANALYSIS	
Aud/Nzd: the cross is located in a clear downward trend and in a correction phase that retested the resistance area 1.2280 and then decreased down to 1.22. Another approach to the resistance level just mentioned might be a good price level to enter the short move with target 1.20.



Thank you and see you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (21 February 2013)

*NEW OPPORTUNITIES!*

Good evening,

today I prepared a different video to present you a very interesting opportunity that many traders/investors were expecting since many weeks!
Enjoy the video and I wait for you to become a real Forex Friend!

Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## >Apocalypto< (22 February 2013)

*Re: NEW OPPORTUNITIES!*



mauriforex said:


> Good evening,
> 
> today I prepared a different video to present you a very interesting opportunity that many traders/investors were expecting since many weeks!
> Enjoy the video and I wait for you to become a real Forex Friend!
> ...





So you're selling coaching, or an IB that's conected to a broker and you make money off the rebates... I knew you had some angle when you first came on here. 

anyway doubt you will get much business of ASF many have come and left. good luck with your business.


----------



## mauriforex (22 February 2013)

*Re: NEW OPPORTUNITIES!*

Hi,
as you can see from my website I am not an IB but an independent trader. You will not see any advertising about brokers or intermediaries, in that case I could not make independent advisory as I do!
With regard to the "_angle_" as you wrote: I'm sorry but *it is not something new at all*! I signed up here since more than 2 months and I was already owner of a website, without hidding it to the public. It's been precisely the request of many people (to have a service in English) to convince me to develop a new version in your idiom ...do you think there is something wrong with that? I think the most important thing is to work in a professional and honest way, don't you agree?
Anyway I wish you all the best and a nice trading!
Ciao, Maurizio  



>Apocalypto< said:


> So you're selling coaching, or an IB that's conected to a broker and you make money off the rebates... I knew you had some angle when you first came on here.
> 
> anyway doubt you will get much business of ASF many have come and left. good luck with your business.


----------



## mauriforex (22 February 2013)

*SELL-OFF*

Good evening,

as we could easily expect, stock markets reacted very strongly today after the indications emerged yesterday from Fed's Minute. The possibility of a decrease in U.S. quantitative easing had the effect of generating a wave of buying of USD and a sharp risk sell-off, for indices (Dax -1,88%, CAC -2,29% and the U.S. indices with a negative session) and euro.
The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. slightly fell to 1,6% as analysts expected. 
Tomorrow we will have the same macroeconomic data for Canada and the GDP in Germany.

ANALYSIS	
Eur/Usd: we are close to a very important level because the price tested the static and dynamic support area (of medium term) 1.3170. It is important now to find out if the short-term bearish movement may continue, leading to a reversal of the medium term trend  (in this case we will be looking for a short trading setup after a pullback to 1.3280 area), or if the key support level will confirm its strength providing a new bullish movement and, by consequence, the search of a buying opportunity.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (23 February 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening,
this week is closing in the sign of the volatility with many announcements, more or less official, of central banks that moved the currency market.
For the economic calendar of next week we have a focus on the Italian elections and the expected volatility for next Friday with many important U.S. market movers.
Let's see everything in my usual weekly video (with a good medium term buying opportunity in Gold!).

I wait for you to learn how to work, or invest, in a professional, serious and disciplined way in the foreign exchange and commodities market.

Happy weekend everyone!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (26 February 2013)

*ITALIAN ELECTIONS*

Good evening,

the week opened with a rise for stock markets and a weakness for the yen and the pound.
The Japanese currency suffers the constant rumors about the name of the new Bank of Japan's governor, while the british pound (that generated several gap in yesterday opening) was sold especially after Moody's downgrading of the week-end.
Today (an yesterday) we had the Italian general election with data yet to confirm but with a volatility, for the Italian index, as rarely seen. Tomorrow we will know something definitive.
Also tomorrow we'll have the important data of US consumer confidence and Mr. Ben Bernanke's report to U.S. Senate.

ANALYSIS 
US Oil: after an initial attempt of a bullish correction the price reacts by drawing a Pin candle in line with short term move. The breakout of the close support area could accentuate the downward trend to the next key level $ 90.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (27 February 2013)

*ITALIAN DOUBT*

Good evening,

the uncertainty resulting from the Italian election (which could continue until the middle of March, with the intent of forming a new government) did not help the stock markets and especially the Italian index, who collapses 5% in the opening and just recovered a little bit during the session. Uncertainty weighs, especially in Europe, and we can see it with the volatility of these two days.
The main market mover, tomorrow, will be the GDP of Great Britain and U.S. durable goods.

ANALYSIS	
Usd/Yen: after the strong bearish candle of yesterday, and the (failed) attempt of retracement, there is a possibility of a short entry with the breakout of today's bottom and, in particular, of the support area 90.50. The first target level is 88.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (28 February 2013)

*GOLD NEAR SUPPORTS*

Good evening,

today we had a positive session on the financial markets still waiting for the Italian political situation and its impact on the euro area.
In Forex, waiting for the important day of Friday with the classic US market movers of the beginning of each month, we had an attempt of correction for the pound after the good GDP in UK, a weakness session for USD (with the durable goods orders worst than expected) and a strongest euro.
Tomorrow we will have several interesting data from Europe (the German market jobs data, Euro zone and Germany CPI, which could lead to a volatility in the euro), from U.S. (GDP) and from Japan (Consumer Price Index).

ANALYSIS	
Gold: the resistance area $ 1,620 seems to be strong at the time and the price goes down after the retracement of the bearish movement started in early February. Now we could see a possible continuation of the downward move with a return to support area $ 1550.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (1 March 2013)

*NEW BOJ GOVERNOR*

Good evening,

all the stock markets had a positive session with conflicting data from Europe (with a slightly lower-than-expected inflation in Germany and a slightly higher one in the euro zone) and a the U.S. GDP below the analysts' expectations.
Waiting for the Japanese GDP, it has been appointed (pending parliamentary approval), the new governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Haruiko Kuroda which would replace the outgoing Mr.Shirakawa from March the 20th.
Tomorrow let's pay attention to the volatility of USD with the important data of the University of Michigan Confidence and the ISM Manufacturing in USA. Although it will be the first Friday of the month we will not have the usual NFPR that have been scheduled for next Friday, March the 8th.

ANALYSIS	
Eur/Usd: after 2 days of retracement, the price touched the resistance level 1.3160 and dropped to the previous bottom. The breakout of this level and especially the confirmed closing below 1.30 could push the price to the next support area 1.2850.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (2 March 2013)

*VIDEO ANALYSIS SEMANAL*

Good evening,
this last week of February ended with a special focus to the decision that the U.S. government will have to take on the issue of public spending cuts, the so-called "sequester." 
Next week we will pay attention to the volatility with 5 decisions of interest rates as well as the usual NFPR.
We see all this and some interesting trading opportunities in my usual weekly video!

I wish you a good weekend
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (5 March 2013)

*TOMORROW AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATE*

Good evening,

last Friday US government didn't find any agreement and the started the $ 85 billion of government spending cuts. This situation (in part), along with the uncertainty of the Italian political situation, influenced the stock markets which closed weakly. Producer prices in the euro area has been higher-than-expected today (+0.6%).
Tomorrow we will have the first of several interest rate decisions, with the RBA that should keep the price of money at 3% unchanged.

ANALYSIS	
Aud/Usd: the possible confirmation of the interest rate at 3% could push up the Australian and facilitate the retracement (even temporarily) of this pair to the resistance area 1.0250. At this level, it would be interesting to look for a sell signal of my trading plan to enter the short-term bearish move with target in 1.0050.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (6 March 2013)

*TOMORROW BANK OF CANADA*

Good evening,

as expected the australian central bank left the rate unchanged at 3%, generating an initial upward trend of its currency. From Europe we had the data on Retail Sales which has been better than expected.
Also from the euro zone, tomorrow, we will have the Gross Domestic Product, as well as from Australia. We will also wait for the interest rate decision in Canada, expected unchanged at 1%.

ANALYSIS	
Eur/Usd: after the second day of technical correction, this pair seems to lose its strength and the confirmed break down of the 1.30 level could lead the most important pair firstly to the support area 1.2850 and then 1.27. It's an Interesting situation to return in the short term bearish movement.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
P.S: If you want you can try, completely for free (and without providing any payment information), my daily video service Forex Friends of trading signals and training! Just sign up to my site and request a free 1-month trial (http://www.mauriforex.com/en/forex-friends/) to learn how to work/invest in a serious and professional way in the foreign exchange and commodity market.
For more information: info@mauriforex.com


----------



## mauriforex (7 March 2013)

*DAX ON THE TOP*

Good evening,

today's session closed in a contrasted way for the stock market after the highs reached yesterday by the U.S. indices and the japanese one. The data of Australian GDP was in line with analysts' expectations (+ 0.6%) as well as the one in the euro zone (- 0,6%).
As expected the Canadian interest rate has been confirmed by governor Mark Carney at 1% .
Tomorrow we could have a strong volatility with the 3 decisions of interest rates in Japan, Europe and UK with a consensus of analysts for the maintenance of the current levels.

ANALYSIS	
German DAX: the German index broke upwards 7.870 points which was the top level of the 2-months sideways trend. Considering the short-term bullish movement I will be looking for the price to draw a long set up, after a possible technical correction in the level just violated.



Greetings.	
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (8 March 2013)

*TOMORROW NON FARM PAYROLLS*

Good evening,

all as expected for the rate decisions! The Bank of Japan left interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and the same for the central banks of UK and Europe (respectively 0.50% and 0.75%) with the first one that also confirmed the plan of asset purchase. In his press conference, Mr. Mario Draghi underlined his expectation for a contraction of GDP growth in the euro area, noting that there should be a gradual recovery in the latter part of the year. In this regard also confirmed a continuation of accommodative monetary policy in order to encourage the re-start of the economic activity.
Tomorrow we will have the main market mover of the Forex market, Non Farm Payrolls, as well as the unemployment rates in U.S.A. and Canada so... beware the volatility!

ANALYSIS	
Usd/Yen: it looks like we are having, for the Yen, a new situation of weakness (waiting for the new Governor of the BoJ) and several currency pairs are getting close to resistance levels. The pair Usd/Yen is just retesting 94.60 area where a breakout (confirmed at the moment)  could modify the short term outlook from "Sell" to "Buy" with the search for trading purchase signals.



Greetings.	
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (9 March 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Goodnight,
we are at the end of a week marked by the confirmation of the major central banks's actual monetary policy and by achieving important levels for some of the major stock indexes.
As always we see the macroeconomic and graphic situation in my usual weekly analysis.

Have a nice weekend everybody!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (12 March 2013)

*TOMORROW NEW ZELAND INTEREST RATE*

Good evening,

the new week begins with weak financial markets and in the absence of strong relevance market movers on the economic calendar (except for parliamentary confirmation of the new governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Kuroda, in office since March 19).
The euro remained weak against the major currencies as well as the U.S. dollar, in a slight correction after the strong move of the last Friday, and the commodities.

ANALYSIS
GAS: the medium-term bearish trendline has been broken and the price is right now in the important level $ 3.64. The upward breakout would be interesting to look for a Long opportunity with a first possible target on the resistance area $ 3.80/3.90.



Greetings.	
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (13 March 2013)

*DAY TRADING*

Good evening,

today the stock markets closed a low volatile session slightly around the values of yesterday, with a better performance for the commodities (especially the precious metals).
The data of the german Consumer Price Index has been in line with analysts' expectations, while the European Central Bank today confirmed that its currency is in line with the historical average and with the fundamentals of the euro zone.
Tomorrow, besides the interest rate decision in New Zealand, we will also have the data on retail sales in the U.S. (In this regard I really apologize for the mistake of last night: the strange belief that I was in Tuesday led me to highlight the NZD interest news for today while, on the contrary, it will be released tomorrow Wednesday March 13...I apologize again for the imprecision).

ANALYSIS
Copper: the triangle of possible bearish continuation has been broken but with a strong upward move and the price is now above the static and dynamic area $ 3,53. We are still below the moving average, but a slight correction on the key level, with a Long trading signal, might also be considered for a possible return to the $ 3.60 area.



Greetings.	
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (14 March 2013)

*TOMORROW SWISS INTEREST RATE*

Good evening,

the today we had a negative session for the stock markets with higher losses for Milan, Tokyo and London. The data on retail sales in the U.S. was much higher than expected (1.1% against 0,5%) generating strength in the USD.
Another interest rate decision will be taken tomorrow by the Swiss National Bank, together with other important data coming from the U.S. (the Production Price Index) and from Australia (about the labor market).

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: second day of retracement that pushed the price on the support area 95.80. The closing above level 96 and expecially the breakout of today’s top could resume the uptrend, also in line with the expectations of devaluation pursued by the Bank of Japan.



Greetings.	
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## Douglas Class (14 March 2013)

EUR/AUD  DAILY as of Thursday, 14 March, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 13/03/13, there are 2 white candles versus 8 black candles with a net of 6 black candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 13/03/13, there are 19 white candles versus 31 black candles with a net of 12 black candles.
Three Daily black candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a Gann Swing or Pullback that is usually a bearish pattern
Euro Dollar / Australian Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1.26 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 36.79 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 35.13 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -0.01, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 6.26. This value is in the oversold territory.


----------



## mauriforex (15 March 2013)

*NO CHANGE FOR CHF*

Good evening,

today's session showed a positive day for the stock market and in particular for Milan, Madrid and Frankfurt.
From the australian labor market we had good news with a sharp increase in the number of employed, together with a stability in the unemployment rate.
From Switzerland, the central bank has confirmed the level of interest rates as well as the floor of 1.20 in the exchange rate against the euro.
From the United States we had the Production Price Index which showed an increase compared to the previous one, but, however, lower than analysts' expectations.
Tomorrow we will expect the Consumer Price Index in Europe and in the United States.

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: we are always in a clear medium-short period downward trend, in a technical correction phase that is approaching the price to the resistance area 1.5150. This level could be an interesting point where to search a possible short set up with a target on the weekly support area 1.44.



Greetings.	
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (16 March 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALISIS*

Good evening,

the positive trend of the stock indices continues with a weakness of the dollar in last part of the week. 
The next week we will have the interest rate decision in the United States. However, you can find all the main market movers and trading opportunities in my usual weekly video.

Have a nice weekend everybody.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (19 March 2013)

*CYPRUS SCARES THE MARKET*

Good evening,

definitely the theme of the day has been the delicate situation in Cyprus which influenced all equity markets as well as the great weakness of the euro, especially at yesterday markets open. The hypothesis of the increasing taxation on Cypriots deposit accounts, as a conditio sine qua non for the 10 billion euros aid, could create panic among depositors, serious problems in the banking system and the resume of concerns about the stability of the Euro area after a few months of momentary "silence" over the problem. Thus it will be more interesting to know, tomorrow, the German ZEW index about the economic sentiment, in addition to the Minute of the Australian central bank and to the Consumer Prices Index in the UK.	

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: as all pairs with the euro, it began the new week with a strong bearish gap that makes the chart less easy to understand from a technical point of view. The session, however, closed with a rebound to the resistance area 1.2950 (bottom side of the previous channel) where, in line with a short-term downtrend, we could consider a bearish entry, in case of clear short trading signal, with target at 1.27 support area.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (20 March 2013)

*TOMORROW US INTEREST RATE*

Good evening,

the two main macro data from Europe were pretty much in line with expectations, with the German Zew index equal to 48.1 (against 48.2 expected) and the Price Consumer Index in the UK at 2.8% (compared to 2.7% expected).
Today there was the expected vote by the Cypriot Parliament on European aid with the rejection of the bank deposit tax.
The stock markets had a session rather weak and with negative movements.
During today we also saw the step down of the governor of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa.	
Tomorrow will be an important day because we will have, as well as the Minute of the BoE and the GDP of New Zealand, the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (with Mr. Bernanke's press conference).

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Usd: the Cable is proceeding in a very short term lateral move characterized by two inside candles. The break-down of 1.5060 level could facilitate the down move to the next support area 1.49 as first target.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## Douglas Class (20 March 2013)

EUR/USD  DAILY as of Wednesday, 20 March, 2013
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for Euro Dollar / US Dollar. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4. 
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a violation of the AlphOmega trendline at 1. This could mean a reversal of the trend to bearish. This trendline is for normal (21%) amplitude, it would be wise to test other amplitudes. To see the trendline, insert the indicator AlphOmega Trendline and select your amplitude/sensitivity. 
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3
Euro Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1.31 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.51 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 25.75 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -0.02, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 55.65. This value is in the neutral territory.


----------



## mauriforex (21 March 2013)

*CYPRUS CALLS RUSSIA*

Good evening,

the decision of the Cyprus Parliament not to approve the super tax on bank deposits does not seem to have caused damage to the stock and currency market, on the other hand the EU announced that now it’s up to Cyprus (which is still dealing with Russia) to find another solution to the problem. Equity markets had a positive session especially for Milan and Paris.
The main market mover today was definitely the decision of U.S. rates that, as expected, has not been changed compared to the previous 0.25%. The governor Bernanke, in his press conference, confirmed the current bond purchase plan, a gradual economic growth and low interest rates until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.	

ANALYSIS
Eur/Aud: the cross reacted in the 1.2420 support area highlighting a temporary recovery in the strength of the euro. The trend is still bearish in the short term so the idea is to look for a short signal after a possible correction on levels 1.2520 / 1.2550.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

P.S: If you want you can try, completely free (and without providing any payment information), my daily video service Forex Friends of trading signals and training! Just sign up to my site and request a free 1-month trial (http://www.mauriforex.com/en/forex-friends/) to learn how to work/invest in a serious and professional way in the foreign exchange and commodity market.
For more information: info@mauriforex.com


----------



## mauriforex (22 March 2013)

*BOJ:KURODA*

Good evening,

equity markets had a weak session (especially Paris and Frankfurt) waiting for the solution of the Cypriot issue.
In the absence of very important market movers, I point out the data on retail sales in the UK (better than expected) and the jobless claims in the United States (lower than expected).
After the official appointment, today was held the first speech of the new governor of the Boj Mr.Kuroda. He said that his main target is to beat deflation and he will do it without relying on a weak Yen and without buying govm.bonds but considering the purchase of other asset, including real estate (REITS).
Tomorrow the only important market mover will be the German IFO index on economic confidence.

ANALYSIS
Silver: we are in the upper level of the short period sideway channel and, considering the medium term down move (we’re still below the EMA21) we could evaluate short signals on level 29.40$ with a first target on the support area $28.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (23 March 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hi everybody,

after the confirmation of the U.S. interest rates and the first speech of the new Bank of Japan's Governor, we prepare to enter the last week of March with interesting trading situations to evaluate.
Enjoy my weekly video and have a nice week-end!

Greetings, Maurizio.
P.S: you can still request for free the 30 days training videos on my web page www.mauriforex.com entering the page Forex Friends, if you didn' do it yet!


----------



## mauriforex (26 March 2013)

*WEAK EURO*

Good evening,

last night was finally reached an agreement between the Troika and the Cypriot Government! This one will "hit" all bank accounts with over 100.000euro (which will suffer important losses) protecting the smaller depositors (but not the russians!) and proceeding to the close of the second largest bank, Laiki Bank. Troika will give next May the â‚¬ 10 billion needed to save the island.
Financial markets reacted positively to the agreement but later changed their move and closed negative. The same happened with the euro, that strengthened in the first part of the session (after the negative opening of yesterday) and got weaker in the second part.
Tomorrow we will expect two important major market movers from the USA: the durable goods order and the consumer confidence.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: after Cyprus news there was an attempt to recover but the price reacts strongly on the level 1,3050 falling below 1.2850. We are still within a short period laterality but the break-down of its bottom could push this pair to the next area of support 1.27.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (27 March 2013)

*SUPER NZD*

Good evening,

equity markets rebounded today without obtaining a positive result for all indices: the "Cyprus model" led operators to prefer prudence towards those “risky countries”.
The two main data expected today were contrasted, with the durable goods order at 5,7% and the consumer confidence worst than expected.
Tomorrow we will have the British GDP and the Consumer Prices Index in Canada.

ANALYSIS
Nzd/Usd: the long and short term trend is bullish with the strength of New Zealand dollar that could push the pair up to area 0.85. The goal is to enter this movement by taking advantage of a possible correction on the support level 0.8350.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (28 March 2013)

*THE EURO BREAKS THE SUPPORTS*

Good evening,

between the most important market movers today we had the British GDP (-0.3% as expected) and the Canadian Consumer Price Index (+1.2% higher than expected).
Equity markets got weaker as at the beginning of this week, with a worst performance for Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris.
Tomorrow we will expect from Germany the unemployment rate and from Canada and United States gross domestic product.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: it finally broke the short-term laterality and the trend takes the bearish medium term direction. In the level just broken (area 1.28) we may consider a possible retracement, with a trading signal, to enter the short movement.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (29 March 2013)

*TOMORROW MARKET CLOSED*

Good evening,

In this Holy Thursday (last day of trading for Cfd) the stock markets had a positive session compared to the drop of yesterday.
We had a good data on Canadian GDP (1% and slightly more than expected), not so good the U.S. GDP (0.4% less than expected).
In Forex we had a session of correction for the dollar and a stronger one for the euro waiting for the last trading day that, with all stock indices closed, will be less liquid and more volatile.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the assumed retracement I wrote yesterday happened today. Paying attention to the lack of liquidity that we will have tomorrow and Monday, we can look for a short trading signal to enter the downtrend!



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (30 March 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hi traders,
as usual I prepared my video analysis to show you how interesting and profitable is my method in the currency and commodity market!

Enjoy it and have a nice Holy Easter.
God bless you
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## Douglas Class (31 March 2013)

USD/CHF  DAILY as of Friday, 29 March, 2013
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for US Dollar / Swiss Franc. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4.   An Inside Day Narrow Range was detected by your Elliott Waves High Volatility on 29/03/2013. This is usually a trade set-up .
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 0.95 one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 2
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
normal amplitude (21%): bullish wave 1
US Dollar / Swiss Franc is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 0.93 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 55.86 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 73.69 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.01, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 63.57. This value is in the neutral territory.


----------



## mauriforex (3 April 2013)

*BULLISH MARKET*

Good evening,

after a slow start the stock markets turned positive and seemed not to have suffered from Italian politics uncertainty, with a good close for Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid.
The RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at 3% not excluding in the future an increase of expansionary policies in order to achieve the inflation target.
The unemployment in Europe continues to be worrying because it’s still at record levels of 12%.
From Europe we also had the Consumer Prices Index of Germany at 1, 4% (slightly higher than expected).

ANALYSIS
Nzd/Usd: after the bullish candles of last week (which I considered to enter at market) the price broke upwards the bullish continuation triangle. The technical target of the probable bullish movement is in the resistance area 0.8530. A momentary pullback on the level 0.8390 could represent a second opportunity of purchase for those who left out of the trade.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (4 April 2013)

*JAPAN, UK, EUROPE: INTEREST RATE!*

Good evening,

the bullish movement of the European markets had a short life, as today the strength of the sellers came back, especially for the "weaker" countries of the euro zone as Italy and Spain.
Tomorrow we will have a very important session in view of the interest rate decisions in Japan (the first for the new governor Mr.Kuroda!), in the UK and in Europe. Analysts are expecting a general confirmation of the current levels, however from the ECB are reaching some "rumors" about new future reductions. Pay attention to the press conference Mr. Mario Draghi that, as always, can generate important movements of volatility for the euro.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: we are in a bearish medium and short term move that draws today an internal Pin candle which attempted a technical correction. The breakout of yesterday's low (1.2390) could push the cross downward to area 1.23 before and 1.2150 after.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (5 April 2013)

*MR.KURODA RESPECTS THE EXPECTATIONS*

Good evening,

according to the forecasts, the three central banks confirmed today the interest rates (0.10% in Japan, 0.50% in England and 0.75% in Europe), but especially the governors' statements have been more interesting. The new chief of the Bank of Japan has announced a sharp increase in quantitative easing, to achieve the inflation target, by means of further asset purchases, even of higher risk.
From Europe, Mr. Mario Draghi in his press conference announced that inflation expectation remain firmly anchored and the ECB policy will be accommodative as long as needed (without cutting the interest rate in the short term) while governments should continue to implement reforms. Nothing new from the BoE.
Tomorrow we will have another session of high volatility especially with the Non Farm Payrolls, the most important market mover of the Forex market.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: after the BoJ communication the Yen collapsed causing at the same time a massive dollar purchases. The currency pair increased nearly 300 pips to the important resistance area 96.50. The breakout of this level would be a confirmation of the bullish momentum and would give me the absolute conviction to look for a buying trading signal with target on level 100.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (6 April 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hello traders,
we are at the end of another week characterized, as expected, by high volatility in the last two days. We saw important movements in some currencies and commodities which are close to very important price levels (such as Gold and Silver) and there will be great trading opportunities for next week!
You can see a part of my full weekly analysis as usual.

Have a nice weekend and see you next Monday!
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (9 April 2013)

*YEN SELLING*

Good evening,

after the "explosive" days of the last Thursday and Friday, we have seen today a much more quiet session in the absence of particularly relevant market movers: movements of "settling" for the equity indices and for the major currencies that still show a strong euro and a weakness of the yen.
Tomorrow we won't have very important macro news, but only a certain attention to the industrial production and manufacturing production in the UK.

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Nzd: the pair is very close to the historic bottom level (1.79), within a phase of accumulation of the medium term downtrend. The confirmed breakout of this support area (might be possible considering the current strength of New Zealand Dollar) could push this cross down to a possible target on area 1.75.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (10 April 2013)

*GOLD UPWARD*

Good evening,

also today stock markets had no very strong movements, closing the session in a contrasted way. Still in absence of important macroeconomic data (except the industrial and manufacturing production in UK, better than expected) we will wait tomorrow for the important Minute of the FOMC, to know the specific indications emerged in the last meeting of the Fed.

ANALYSIS
Gold: after having tested the important long-term support level, also seen in my weekly video last Friday, this precious pushes up returning close to the $ 1,590 (and to the EMA21). We have to control the next major resistance area (static and dynamic) $ 1615/1620 to evaluate a possible continuation of the bullish strength or, on the contrary, a reversal candle that might lead to the closing of our Long actual trade and, possibly, the search for a short signal.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (11 April 2013)

*SUPER NZD*

Good evening,

stock markets had a stronger session today and showed a purchase strength especially in Milan, Madrid and Paris.
The dollar is slightly recovering, while continues the increase for the euro and especially for the "Commodity currencies" (Australian and New Zealand), pushed up by the good data of the Chinese import.
In the Minute of the FED, released with anticipation, the members appeared sharply divided on how long the bond purchase plan should last, with one of the members that considered a possible decrease (is the stimulus plan going to an end?!)
Among the major market movers of tomorrow we can remember the Consumer Price Index in Germany and some data on the Australian labor market.

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Nzd: the New Zealand Dollar strength led to the breakout of the support level 1.7915 (as I wrote before yesterday) preparing for a possible decline to the next important area 1.7470. Now let's look for one of my trading signals to evaluate a short entry! Of course, in case of return up to the key level mentioned above (and therefore in case of a false bearish breakout) we will consider a bullish set up for a possible return to the top of the channel recently violated (1.8430 level).



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (12 April 2013)

*STOCK MARKETS UPWARD*

Good evening,

as expected, the inflation in Germany remained unchanged (1.4%), unlike the unemployment rate in Australia that, in March, rose to 5.6%, above the expectations. We had an initial weakness of the Australian dollar which recovered in line with the bullish short-term movement and tied to the strength of the stock market indices.
These ones confirmed the positive trend, closing a positive session with historic tops for the American market.
Tomorrow the most important market movers will be from to the United States with the Retail Sales and the usual monthly appointment with the Confidence Index from the University of Michigan.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: despite the strength of the Australian, the pair continued its bearish movement (in line with the medium and short term trend) leading my short operation, opened a few days ago, to the take profit at 1.2190 before turning a little bit upward. The momentum is still bearish, so I'll keep looking for new sales trading signals of my plan in the next  resistance level 1.2310.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (13 April 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hi everybody,

like every Friday here you have my video analysis about the macro and graphic situation for next week.
*I always remind you, if you want, the opportunity to take advantage by testing the 30-days free trial* (totally free) of my service "Forex Friends" of daily trading and training videos with no intraday trading method!

Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (16 April 2013)

*PANIC SELLING FOR GOLD*

Good evening,

after a positive start of the session, the major stock indexes turned negative closing down a day without important market movers. As last Friday, today we saw a sharp drop in the price of Gold (see the chart below), which confirms the reversal in the medium-term trend, as well as for Silver.
Tomorrow, in addition to the Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the German ZEW index, we will have the Consumer Price Index in different geographic areas: England, Euro zone, U.S. and New Zealand (all expected unchanged except in U.S. with a possible decrease).

ANALYSIS
Gold: the break out of the long-term historical support zone ($ 1.500/1.520) led the price reach many stop loss, of long positioned investors, creating a "domino effect" which became a true "panic selling" of the long positions. The price, which at the opening of last Friday was quoting $ 1560, today has touched the 2-years bottom of $ 1.355 inverting the medium-term movement. The actual goal is to find a momentary retracement to enter this great movement that could have, even in the short term, a target in the support area 1.310 $.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (17 April 2013)

*RETRACEMENTS*

Good evening,

the Boston attack and the collapse of some commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) have contributed to increase the weakness in stock markets which closed, today, an uncertain session.
In its Minutes the RBA announced that the cuts of Australian interest rates (-1.75% from November 2011) have contributed to boost some sectors of the economy and its effects have not yet been fully revealed. RBA also comunicated that other interest cuts still may be needed in the future (although probably not in 2013).
The German ZEW index was lower than expected, showing a decline in confidence due to the euro area debt crisis and to the recent macro indicators below the expectations.
UK and Euro zone CPIs were in line with expectations while US one was a little bit lower.
Tomorrow will be characterized by the Minute of the BoE, by the interest rate decision in Canada and the Fed Beige Book.

ANALYSIS
US Oil: the technical pullback we saw today for raw materials led WTI to react in the dynamic level $ 86 with a strong bullish candle. The breaking out of the $ 89 area (even being a countertrend) could push the price to $ 92 (beware the expiration of the contract of this CFD scheduled for Thursday, April 18!).



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (18 April 2013)

*NO CHANGE IN CANADA*

Hello traders,

after a positive start of the European markets, they turned down confirming the weakness of yesterday that we didn'see for Asian and Americans indices.
The Minutes of the Bank of England showed that the last confirmation of the interest rate was unanimous, but there are still 3 of the 9 members of the Board in favor of an increase in the Quantitative Easing (from 375 to 400 billion pounds, increasing for this reason, the weakness of the currency).
Everything as expected in Canada with the confirmation of the interest rate at 1%.
From the United States the usual publication of the Fed's Beige Book about the U.S. Economy.
Tomorrow we will have the retail sales in the UK and the jobless claims in the U.S.

*Today I show you a demonstration video of my trading method in the Forex market, considering two recent operations performed on NZD purchase.*

See you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (19 April 2013)

*AAA FOR GERMANY*

Good evening,

today we will have the beginning of the G-20 meeting in Washington to discuss over the economic outlook and the issue of "currency war"; while stock markets after a good start (with the confirmation by Moody of the triple A for Germany, but with a negative outlook) closed contrasted influenced by Wall Street.
In Forex we had a slight strengthening of the euro and a dollar unchanged.
From the economic calendar we saw a retail sales data in England below expectations and the jobless claims in USA higher than expected (352k).
Tomorrow we will have, as main market mover, the consumer price index in Canada.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the euro tries to ricover but it’s influenced by the resulting of the presidential elections in Italy. The pair is still in the important area 1.3030 / 1.3050 which (in line with the short term trend and being above EMA21) could bring back again the quotation on level 1.3150, exactly where they were before the words, said yesterday, by the "wise" Weidmann, of the Bundesbank.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (20 April 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hello traders,

the G-20 continues today in Washington (with the finance ministers and central banks). The euro zone crisis remains the main topic of discussion, as it has been defined, by the IMF, as the cause of the decrease in global growth estimates. Another key issue for the G20 is the currency situation, in order to avoid voluntary currency depreciations for commercial advantages (of course without making direct references to the Bank of Japan!).
Today's session, in financial markets, has been characterized by an upward correction, however, in a week in which the strength of the sellers has been predominant.
The most important macroeconomic data today was the Consumer Price Index in Canada, which was in line with expectations (1,4%).

As every Friday I prepared a short video analysis about the economic calendar and some interesting trading opportunities for the next week *(including 2 nice trades in selling Yen!)*.

Have a nice week-end everybody!
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (23 April 2013)

*NO CURRENCY WAR!*

Good evening,

the G20 confirmed the invitation not to adopt devaluation policies for commercial purposes ("absolving", however, the extraordinary policy recently adopted by the BoJ) emphasizing on the contrary the importance of monetary policy as a tool which aims to stabilize domestic prices and stimulate growth.
Today stock markets had positive opening, also considering the new election of the President of the Italy, but changed its move during the session, except Milan and Madrid.
In absence of very important macroeconomic data we will wait for the interest rate decision in New Zealand scheduled tomorrow night (European time).
In Forex we had another session of strength for the US Dollar, uncertainty for euro and another bullish retracement candle for gold.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the very short term sideways trend continues within the levels 1.3130 / 1.3020 but above the moving average. A strong bullish signal could be considered for a purchase (with target on the top of the range) otherwise a downward break, later confirmed by a bearish setup, could be negotiated with a profit target on area 1.2750.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (25 April 2013)

*NZD: NO CHANGE IN 2013*

Good evening,

last night we had the confirmation of New Zealand's interest rate at 2.50% , but also the RBNZ's indication about the maintenance of the current level through all 2013 (with the obvious strengthening of its currency). From Oceania we also received the inflation data of Australia which was lower than expected (2.5% vs. 2.8%).
From the United States we had the Durable Goods Orders and from Germany the IFO index, both below expectations.
The most important market mover for tomorrow will be the UK's GDP.
Stock markets close another positive session.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Chf: the pair is within a short-term bullish move but very close to a significant level (0.95 / 0.9550) of static and especially dynamic resistance (the long term downtrend line). Thus, we might consider a short entry, in presence of a strong bearish setup of my trading system with  first target area on 0.9240.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (26 April 2013)

*INTEREST RATE IN JAPAN*

Good evening,

UK’s GDP has been higher than expected (0.3% in the first quarter compared to 0.1% expected), avoiding the recession in the country and strengthening the pound against the dollar and the euro .
The stock markets had a positive session with ongoing "rumors" about possible upcoming cuts of the ECB interest rate, despite the disagree of Chancellor Merkel.
Tomorrow pay attention to the volatility of the yen and the dollar for the interest rate decision in Japan (and the following press conference Mr.Kuroda) and for the U.S. GDP.

ANALYSIS
Gold: the bullish pullback continues and, after a brief pause two days ago, it is going closer to the resistance area $ 1460/1470 highlightned here in "Forex Friends" (and also corresponding to the 50% retracement of Fibonacci). At this level I will verify the presence of one of my trading signals to enter a short position and take advantage of a possible continuation of the bearish movement with first target at $ 1,410 and then in the next bottom at $ 1,330.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (27 April 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good evening, 

in this week we saw a confirmation of the interest rates in New Zealand and Japan. In this country we also had the confirmation of the monetary policy to achieve the inflation target of 2%.
Yesterday we saw a strong movement of the british pound as a result of the good GDP data of the UK that avoided the danger of a recession.
The next week will be particularly important because we will see the usual monthly market mover Non Farm Payrolls (the most important in Forex) and also two interest rate decisions in the U.S. and Europe (perhaps with a possible downside surprise!).
As every Friday we look these, and other, macroeconomic data in my usual weekly video, along with the most interesting trading opportunities for the new market opening. 

I wish you a nice week-end!
Greetings
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (30 April 2013)

*SELL IN MAY?*

Good evening,

we are about to enter the first week of May and it will surely be important in view of the macroeconomic data that will come from Europe and the United States, as mentioned in my weekly video last Friday. As a matter of fact today we had the Consumer Price Index in Germany and the individual consumption in the U.S., both lower than expected.
Also tomorrow we will have from Germany the change in employment, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone, the Canadian GDP and the consumer confidence in the U.S.
Stock indexes were positive and will be interesting to see what could be the reaction in the levels of resistance ("sell in May and go away"?).

ANALYSIS
Copper: we are in a bearish phase, both in the short to medium-term. After an upward technical correction, we saw last Friday a false break of the resistance $ 3.23 and now a new test of it. Right in this level, we can find one of my trading signals to resume the bearish movement with a first target area on $ 3.08 .



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (1 May 2013)

*TOMORROW US INTEREST RATE*

Good evening,

stock exchanges were weak in a day with several macroeconomic indicators. The change in employment in Germany was higher than expected; from the euro zone we had a better inflation data but also a new record in unemployment to 12.1% (although in line with analysts' expectations). Canada's GDP was higher than expected (+1,7%), as well as the U.S. consumer confidence.
Tomorrow will begin the first of three days of high volatility with the U.S. manufacturing index and the Fed rate decision.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the weakness of the dollar continues to affect this currency pair that is getting closer to 96.40 support area in which I will try to look for one of my Long trading signals to enter the possible upward move with a target area at 100. In case of bearish breakout, of course, my view would change into short and I would follow the new downward trend.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (2 May 2013)

*WAITING FOR MR.DRAGHI*

Good evening,

today's session was characterized by a lack of liquidity due to the closure of the major world stock markets (Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Brazil, Russia, Singapore, Hong Kong).
From a macroeconomic point of view we had from the United States the ISM Manufacturing index (respecting analysts’consensus) and especially the interest rate decision of the Fed with the confirmation of the previous level of 0.25%.
Great expectations for tomorrow with the meeting of the ECB (there will be this rate cut or not?) and for the press conference by Mario Draghi that, as always, will cause high volatility in the movement of the euro.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: this pair is consolidating in these days just above the support 1.2050, with a series of internal candles, whose breakout could generate a downward move to the next key area 1.1940.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (3 May 2013)

Good evening,

the most important market mover today is certainly the interest rate decision of the ECB that, encouraged by the last negative fundamental data, finally confirmed the reduction of the rate of 25 basis points to 0.50%. The equity markets were "waiting" the ECB meeting and then turned into positive.
Mario Draghi, in his press conference, stressed that the expansionary monetary policy will continue until it is needed, even opening up the possibility of negative interest rates on deposits in euro (generating a strong fall in the same currency).
Be careful, because the volatility of this week is not over but, on the contrary, it will increase tomorrow with the most important monthly market mover of Forex which is the Non Farm Payrolls, from the United States along with the unemployment data, beware your open positions in USD!

ANALYSIS
Aud/Yen: the medium-term uptrend continues its downward correction and is now approaching the support area 99.70/99.50. A bullish setup of my trading system at this level could lead to a long position trade with target on 105. On the contrary, the breaking of the support may take the pair to the next key level 97.30.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (4 May 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hello traders,

the week is ending confirming the high volatility, characterized by two important interest rate decisions and by the U.S. NFPR (labor market data) that have generated significant movements in the currency market.
Also the next week we will have two rate decisions (in Australia and UK) but we should not see concrete changes in monetary policy.
Equity markets remain at historical levels (with the "risk-on" that is still present despite the statistically month of May famous for profit taking) providing potential profit opportunities in the event of a trend reversal with short trading signals.

I just realized my usual weekly analysis to see the macro situation and some of the most interesting trading/investment opportunities for the next week, in order to confirm the good start of the month that I and the "Forex Friends" are having!

Have a great weekend and see you next Monday.
Maurizio Orsini 
P.S: I apologize for the change in the sound but I prefered to change the microphone and close the webcam!


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## mauriforex (7 May 2013)

*TOMORROW AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATE*

Good evening,

after the big volatility of the recent days, we start a week with macroeconomic data probably less impressive: this morning we had the data on retail sales in the euro zone (at -0.1% as expected), while tomorrow we will have the interest rate decision in Australia (expected at 3%).
The major stock indexes closed the session with weakness highlighting a technical correction after the rising of the previous week.

ANALYSIS
S&P: the american index confirms the upward momentum (especially after the good data on US unemployment) and broke up the 1600 points historic highs! The correct analysis, now, is to evaluate the confirmation of this breakout in order not to run into false movements: a pullback of the price to test the former resistance, now support, with a long trading signal of my method would be very interesting for a purchase entry in CFD.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (8 May 2013)

*AUSTRALIA 2,75%*

Good evening,

equity markets were influenced by U.S. stock exchanges strength and resume today the upward movement of last week confirming, for example with the German DAX, the breakout of important resistance levels.
The most important macroeconomic data of the day was certanly the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (from 3% to 2.75%) to support an economy that is not in crisis, but it is beginning to show a fundamental warning and it's always affected by the slowdown in China. Tomorrow in the night (European time) we will have from Oceania the unemployment rate in New Zealand and, a few hours later, the Chinese inflation.

ANALYSIS
GAS: the weakness of this cfd continues getting closer to the support area $3.86 (last level before my take profit at $ 3.70!). In case of a strong bullish reverse signal in this key area I could close my position earlier, with a very good result, and evaluate a purchase countertrend entry with a very short-term target in $4.05 level.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (9 May 2013)

*TOMORROW BANK OF ENGLAND'S MEETING*

Good evening,

stock indices basically closed another positive session today, in the absence of particularly important market movers, confirming the "risk on" of this period.
In a few hours we will have the inflation data from China but before the unemployment rate in New Zealand. From this country we also had today the communication by the central bank governor, Graeme Wheeler, about a direct intervention just made in the currency market to reduce the appreciation of the NZD (and it might not be the last Bank direct intervention for this purpose!). Sales pressures also continue for the Australian dollar with several analysts who are expecting other possible interest rate cuts, as well as yesterday, even reaching 2% by the end of the year (probably with a cut of 25 basis points up to next June!).
Tomorrow, in addition to the ECB monthly report, we will also pay special attention to UK with the decision on interest rates and quantitative easing from the Bank of England (pay attention to your opened positions in pounds!).

ANALYSIS
US Oil WTI: the problems between Syria and Israel (from a fundamental point of view) and the interesting situation in the monthly chart (in a technical point of view) push up the price of the crude oil which still remains above the EMA21 and within a short term uptrend. I look forward to see a technical pullback in the intermediate support at $95.50 to return in the trend upward with first target at $97.50 and then $99.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (10 May 2013)

*NO CHANGE IN UK*

Good evening,

today we have seen positive data from Oceania with the unemployment rates lower than expected in New Zealand (6.2%) and Australia (5.5%). From China we had an inflation higher than expected (2.4% vs. 2.1% previously).
As mentioned yesterday, we saw a high volatility in the pound with the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rates and the asset purchase unchanged (respectively at 0.50% and £375 billion per month) and we will see, with the Minute to be published in a couple of weeks, which has been the specific view of the BoE's members.
Stock markets closed a flat session without high volatility (with a worste performance for Milan and Paris).
Tomorrow we will analyze the Canadian labor market data.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Cad: we are in a medium-term bullish movement, but in a short term downward trend and close to a very important static and dynamic support level. As a matter of fact, the breakout of the parity level could accelerate the fall of the price to the next support at 0.9930 firstly and 0.9830 later. So beware of a possible bearish break to evaluate a sale entry but always in the presence of one of my trading signals, to avoid false breakouts!



*Today I prepared a short video for those traders who would like to change their point of view in Forex trading, leaving a stressful operating system by a more relaxed and clear way of trading. Enjoy!*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvsklOnQEhg

See you tomorrow with my weekly outlook!
Maurizio Orsini


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## bailx (10 May 2013)

Maurizio,

How you going dude; certainly a lot going on in the market these day's as usual. been flicking through your analysis from time to time, like every analysis they come with the good and bad. So anyway I was wondering do you have any recommendations for the start of Monday's trading, FX. If you think there might be some big mover's on this day I would to hear your thought's.

All the best Maurizio, Keep up the good work.

Happy Trading!

Bailx


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## mauriforex (10 May 2013)

Hi! I will analyze later the weekly situation to be prepared for next opening...I see a good move of the Usd so..nice opportinities of purchase (expecially UsdYen...)
See you, Maurizio



bailx said:


> Maurizio,
> 
> How you going dude; certainly a lot going on in the market these day's as usual. been flicking through your analysis from time to time, like every analysis they come with the good and bad. So anyway I was wondering do you have any recommendations for the start of Monday's trading, FX. If you think there might be some big mover's on this day I would to hear your thought's.
> 
> ...


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## mauriforex (11 May 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hi traders,

this week is ending with the confirmation of the strength of the equity markets that fail to have an important corrective movement, on the contrary, they are rising up to new highs.
We had two interest rate decisions with the confirmation of 0.50% in England and the cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at 2.75% (which might not be the last of 2013).
A direct intervention in the currency market was realized by the central bank of New Zealand showing how the two countries of Oceania are very focused on stimulus measures to support its economy and the trade balance.
The week, in Forex market, closes with a strong purchase of U.S. dollar and a return of the weakness for the yen that could generate (even in the same direct exchange) excellent trading opportunities.
Next week we won't have interest rate decisions, but a series of market movers that will affect different currencies. Let's see which they are, togheter with some interesting situations of chart analysis, in my usual weekly video!

Have a great weekend and see you next Monday.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (14 May 2013)

*EUROFIN*

Good night,

today will begin the Eurofin summit in Brussels that will analyze the "not so positive"fundamentals data of the euro area as well as the particular situation of the euro, especially after the words of Mario Draghi who opened to negative rates deposits.
Also from Eurozone we will have tomorrow several important data as the inflation in Germany, theproduction  industrial in the euro zone and the ZEW sentiment on the German economy.
The only major market mover today was the U.S. Retail Sales which was better than expected and let the stock markets closed a session with slight losses.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the short-term laterality was broken up last Thursday (and confirmed the following day). The price action is showing a strengthening of the rising trend, so I'll try to find one of my trading signals in the previous key level 100 to enter this bullish move with first target on area 103.50.



Greetings.
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (15 May 2013)

*MARKET MOVERS FROM EUROPE*

Good night,

today we had three important market movers from Europe, the inflation in Germany (-0.5% in April and in line with expectations), the German ZEW (36.4 slightly above the previous data, but lower than market's expectations) and the industrial production in the euro area (equivalent to 1% and much higher than expected).
Tomorrow from Europe we will have the GDP data in Germany and the euro area and from England the inflation report and the jobless claims.
We had a new positive session on financial markets, which continue their upward trend of the last period, while in Forex market we had a strength for dollar and euro and  weakness for the commodity currencies.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the price seems to confirm the bearish violation of the medium-term laterality with the actual candle which tested again the previous resistance level at 1.30 showing a higher pressure on sale. The break out of 1.2930 area could generate a downward acceleration up to 200 pips (in line with the confirmation of the bullish breakout of the Dollar Index occurred today).



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (16 May 2013)

*FRANCE IN RECESSION*

Good night,

France slips "technically" into recession reporting a first quarter GDP contracted by 0.2%. We had a negative data from Germany, too with a modest growth in the first quarter, below market expectations, that still succeeds in avoiding recession being slightly in positive territory (+0.1%). Good news don't even come from Europe where the GDP fell by 0.2%, resulting, also in this case, below expectations.
From England we had an improvement in jobless claims and the positive outlook of the BoE about the british growth.
Tomorrow we will have the GDP in Japan and the inflation data in Europe and the United States.

ANALYSIS
Gold: it finally recovers the short direction breaking the $1410 support. Now I wait for a technical correction to retest the level just broken, looking for one of my trading signals (required to confirm the bearish breakout) to go on sale with a first target on area $1320.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
I wait for you in www.mauriforex.com (page Forex Friends after logging in) to try the free 30-days trial of my daily videos of trading signals and training (without providing any payment information!). You can watch the introducing video here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvsklOnQEhg .


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## mauriforex (17 May 2013)

*JAPAN IN EXPANSION*

Good night,

today we have to highlight the excellent recovery of Japan (with a GDP above expectations) that begins to benefit the particularly accommodative policy of prime minister Mr. Shinzo Abe.
We also had the inflation rate in Europe (confirmed at 1% as expected) and in the United States (at 1,1% lower than forecasts). Stock markets contrasted.
Tomorrow the most important market mover will be the inflation rate in Canada estimated slightly lower than the previous one.

ANALYSIS
Gas Natural: after touching the resistance level $4.08 (during the retrieve phase) the price seems to resume the short term bearish movement that, in case of breakout of the support $3.85, might go directly to the static and dynamic area $ 3.65. We can evaluate a short entry, perhaps taking advantage of a brief intraday bullish move to improve the risk-reward ratio of the trade.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (18 May 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good night, 

this week confirmed the "risk appetite" that the market is showing in this month of May, denying all the bearish statistics presented in late April!
The US stock markets (but also the German Dax) highlight new highs and do not suggest, for now, a force to correct downward.
The European negative fundamentals we had this week (GDP, German growth, technical recession in France) have contributed to the weakening of the euro especially against the dollar that, on the contrary (and temporary uncorrelated with the market "risk-on"), confirms its moment of strength.
The Oceanic currencies are stll weak, due to the devaluation pressures of their central banks, as well as commodities (such as Gold) due to a general decline in global demand.
Next week we will have the interest rate decision in Japan, among the most important market movers. Let's see them all, together with the most interesting trading opportunities, in my usual weekly video analysis.

Best wishes and happy weekend.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (21 May 2013)

*TOMORROW RBA'S MINUTE*

Good night,

the major stock markets closed slightly positive today and with low volatility in the absence of special relevance market movers.
Tomorrow we will have from Oceania the Australian central bank Minute (very interesting to clarify the next monetary policy measures of the RBA) and the 2-yaers inflation expectations by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. From England we will know the inflation rate in the previous month.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Yen: we are in a phase of accumulation of very short period with the price reaching the support area 131 (and the EMA21). The main trend remains bullish so I would be looking, in the level just mentioned, for one of my Long trading signals to resume a possible upward movement that could have as a first target the area 134.20 (maybe "helped" by the macro news that will arrive from Japan next Wednesday!).



Greetings.
Maurizio


----------



## mauriforex (22 May 2013)

*INTEREST RATE IN JAPAN*

Good night,

the Australian central bank announced this morning the Minute of the last interest rate decision by pointing out that reduction was due to the need to support investment of local enterprises, especially in the mining sector. The inflation target for the next two years provided by the New Zealand central bank remains almost unchanged (2.06%) while we had a decrease in the UK inflation rate of april at 2.4% below the expectations of analysts.
Tomorrow will be a day full of important market movers with the interest rate decision (and monetary policy statement) in Japan, the Minute in UK and the USA and the retail sales data in the UK and Canada.

ANALYSIS
US Oil: the short-term bullish trend (above EMA21) approaches an important static and dynamic resistance area at $97.50/98. In this level we could consider one of my bearish trading signals (although countertrend) entering a possible bearish movement with a target at $89, which corresponds to the bottom of the long term triangle evident in the chart.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


----------



## mauriforex (23 May 2013)

*AMERICAN QE CONTINUES*

Good night,

the Bank of Japan confirmed today the level of interest rates (0.10%) as well as the actual monetary policy, explaining that Japanese economy has started picking up not because of an increase in exports, but due to the end of its decrease.
In England, where retail sales fell sharply (0.2%) not so much compared to previous data (0.4%) but especially considering analysts' expectations (1.8%), we had this morning the Minute of the central bank publishing that most of its members (6 vs 3) were not in favor of an increase of the "quantitative easing" (ie more direct intervention in the economy) because of a possible recovery in the economy and also to avoid inflationary pressures.
From Canada we had the retail sales data showing a zero growth in march (below the expectations).
The US Federal Reserve just published its Minute, anticipated by the testimony of his governor Mr. Ben Bernanke in front of the US Congress. Bernanke confirmed the continuation of the current accommodative policy in order to avoid the risk of slowing or ending the current economic recovery and a decrease of the inflation. Obviously the asset purchase could be reduced in case of a very positive outlook for the labor market.
Also tomorrow we will have a full economic calendar with the inflation expectations in Australia, the PMI manufacturing index in China, Germany and Europe, the British GDP, the consumer confidence in Europe and the U.S. data about the new home sales and the initial jobless claims.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the main trend is still bullish but we are in a very short term lateral move and near the resistance level 103.50. In this area we will be evaluating one of my short trading signals (very carefully because it would be a countertrend!) or perhaps a return to the intermediate static and  dynamic support 101,50/102 to consider new buying opportunities with more ambitious target in area 105.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
I wait for you in www.mauriforex.com (page Forex Friends after logging in) to try the free 30-days trial of my daily videos of trading signals and training (without providing any payment information!). You can watch the introducing video here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvsklOnQEhg .


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## mauriforex (24 May 2013)

*CONTRACTION IN CHINA?*

Good night,

as mentioned yesterday we had an economic calendar full of market movers: inflation expectations of 2.3% in Australia, the Chinese manufacturing index (lower than expected and with the danger of an economic contraction that let Asian markets drop), the European PMI (above expectations), the UK GDP confirmed at 0.3%.
From the Euro zone we also had the consumer confidence (slightly better than the previous month but not as analysts were expecting); while from United States we received the data of new homes sales and jobless claims, both positive respect forecasts. In a few moments Mr.Draghi will have a speech in London.
Tomorrow we will have different data from Germany, such as GDP and IFO confidence, and the "Durable goods orders" in the United States.

ANALYSIS
US Oil: as we saw 2 days ago, in my daily article, the price reacted in the resistance $ 97.50 breaking down the moving average 21. A temporarily correction in the intermediate resistance $ 94.20 would be interesting to evaluate one of my short trading signals with a first target in the support level $ 92 (which is important looking to the reaction the price had on May 15!) and then in the static and dynamic area $ 89.



Greetings and see you tomorrow with weekly video.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (25 May 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Good night,

another week of volatility is over and this time it's been characterized not by interest rate decisions (only in Japan), but by a series of reports of central banks and macroeconomic data that caused strong movements on stock markets and foreign exchange. In particular, the difficult situation of the Chinese production generated tensions in global stock markets (especially in Asia) with downward corrections after the tops of the last days.
In their Minutes, several central banks (U.S., UK, Australia, Japan) have unanimously shown the intention to continue with the current expansionary monetary policy in order to ensure the system the necessary liquidity to drive the economic recovery (but the pockets of people will concretely have more availability?!) although the United States could decide a reduction of this intervention in case of very positive data from the labor market.
Next week too we will have many important market movers as the rate decision in Canada (the second-last of Governor Mark Carney before moving, next July, to the Bank of England!) and the manufacturing data in China.
Let's watch together, in my usual weekly video, the economic calendar for next week and the trading opportunities that a new dollar's rise could offer.

I wish you a very happy weekend!
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (28 May 2013)

*MEMORIAL DAY*

Good night,

this last week of May begins with less liquidity in the market due to the closing of the US and UK Stock Exchange for holiday.
In the Minute of the Bank of Japan it's been told as some of its members highlighted skepticism about achieving the inflation target of 2% in the next two years and therefore the need for flexibility in the adopted monetary policy.
The main market mover for tomorrow will be the Consumer Confidence in the United States.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Chf: we are in a short and medium term uptrend, with the price in the support area 0.96/0.9620. One of my bullish signals (with the arrival of the moving average too) could be interesting to confirm the end of the retreat as well as the breakout of the long-term downtrend line. The possible targets of a Long entry could be 0.9760 and 0.9850 levels.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## bailx (28 May 2013)

Happy Days,

Good time to buy back in against Yen. 'What do you reckon'?


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## mauriforex (28 May 2013)

Hi,
ECB Chief Economist Mr.Praet just said QE in the eruo zone could continue and we might have new interest rate cuts..so Eur could be weaker and Usd could rise! Let's see what will happen!
Greetings, Maurizio



bailx said:


> Happy Days,
> 
> Good time to buy back in against Yen. 'What do you reckon'?


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## mauriforex (29 May 2013)

*NEW ECB CUTS?*

Hello traders,

with the reopening of the U.S. and English market we saw a normal liquidity which led the major markets to close the session in a positive way, also considering the words of the Chief Economist and ECB member Mr. Peter Praet, according to which there will not be a decrease in monetary policy but, on the contrary, there is the possibility for further interest rate cuts to support the euro economy.
The only major macroeconomic data today was the Consumer Confidence in the U.S. which has been higher than expected waiting for the NFPR of next week.
Tomorrow, besides another BoJ governor's speech, we will have some interesting data about the labor market and inflation in Germany (and therefore correlated with the euro area) and the interest rate decision in Canada with the analysts' consensus for a maintenance of the current level.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: the strength of the New Zealand dollar (clears short/medium term downtrend) is decreasing by the current technical correction, which could draw on 1.1960 resistance area one of my clear short signals to enter the trade with a first target in the level 1.1830 and than 1.1770. Tomorrow we'll see if the daily or H4 chart will present interesting opportunities.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (30 May 2013)

*DAILY ANALYSIS*

Hello traders,

as expected the Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged at 1% probably delegating the next governor about any decision on monetary policy changes (in fact Mark Carney will move to the Bank of England next July).
From Germany we had today the data on unemployment (confirmed at 6.9% as expected) and on inflation which was higher than the forecast.
The International Monetary Fund has reduced the estimated GDP growth of China taking it slightly below 8% (generating a weakness of the commodity currencies).
Tomorrow we will have many important data from the United States (including GDP, personal consumption, jobless claims) and also the consumer confidence in the euro zone.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the oscillation of the dollar in these days generated a slight laterality in the very short term. The main movement remains upward, above the moving average and above the most important support zone 100. So a clear Long trading signal in the level just mentioned could be interesting to enter with a target in the price level 103,50 



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## bailx (30 May 2013)

Yesterdays correction to go short proved a volatile day for me. Certainly was not expecting it after previous lows had sustained a comfortable support level as it may seem. I hope this latest news will continue to up rise the USD/YEN.


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## mauriforex (31 May 2013)

*WEAK DOLLAR*

Good night,

the macroeconomic calendar today gave us interesting data from the United States, such as GDP (+2,4% lower than expected), the personal consumption (above the forecast) and especially the jobless claims (worst than expected and generating a USD sell off), and from Europe with the consumer confidence which respected the forecast (at -21.9) but lower than the previous month.
Tomorrow, last day of the week (and of May), we will have the inflation in Japan and Europe and the Canadian GDP.
The main stock market had a good recovery except Tokyo that closed the session falling 5%.

ANALYSIS
Gold: thanks to the weak dollar, we can see a bullish move of this commodity back to the $ 1,410 resistance zone. In this static and dynamic level we could find one of my short trading signals to resume the downward movement until the potential target $ 1320.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## Nona (31 May 2013)

You trend is up


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## mauriforex (1 June 2013)

Hi, sorry I didn't understand what did you mean?!!
Greetings, Maurizio



Nona said:


> You trend is up


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## mauriforex (1 June 2013)

*WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS*

Hi everybody,

today ends the month of May and a week characterized by a "standard" volatility: just one interest rate decision (in Canada), several economic data from Europe and U.S.A and stock markets that, although in a very short-term sideways range, continue to confirm the bullish move of this month denying the classic "Sell in May and go away!"
European macroeconomic data have generated a strong bullish move for the euro in the second half of the week, together with a simultaneous sell off for the U.S. dollar, especially after yesterday's data on unemployment.

Next week, in my opinion, will be the most important of June with a series of interest rate decisions (and monetary policy) and also the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls with the volatility that it will certainly generate.

In my usual weekly video I specifically consider all the major market movers for the next days and, of course, some interesting situations in my daily charts to have good trading opportunities!

Have a great weekend!
Best Regards
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (4 June 2013)

*PMI MANUFACTURING*

Hi everybody,

this day might be called the PMI Manufacturing Day because we have this important market mover in different geographical areas: China (49.2 lower than expected), Germany (49.4 higher than expected), Euro zone and UK (respectively 48.3 and 51.3, both above forecasts), United States (49 lower than expected).
Almost all important stock exchanges closed a negative session.
Tomorrow the focus will be on the RBA rate decision (with a probable confirmation of 2.75%) and on the April inflation rate in the euro zone.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Yen: the pair is in an important area of support (130), slightly below the moving average and drawing a series of inside candles of accumulation.
All the yen pairs are showing similar situations, according to the more or less obvious strength of the corresponding base currency. In this specific case a confirmed breakout of 129.80 level, below the bottom of the Outside candle we had on May the 23rd, could generate a new wave of sales with target in the next support zone 127. Anyway we have to manage it carefully considering the expected volatility generated by the ECB rate decision.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (5 June 2013)

*INTEREST RATE IN AUSTRALIA*

Hi everybody,

as expected the RBA left the interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, also considering new restrictive measures and rate cuts in the future due to the actual strength of its currency against the USD and the difficult situation of its exports (generating weakness for the AUD).
From Europe we had today the producer prices index (-0.6% below analysts' expectations).
Stock markets closed slightly positive, especially Tokyo and Madrid.
Tomorrow we will have the GDP in Australia and in the euro zone, and also the Beige Book from the Federal Reserve.

ANALYSIS
Gold: the yellow metal continues the consolidation phase just below the EMA21 and te resistance area $1415. The breaking of the upward short term trendline could lead to an important down move to the next target level at $1320. Obviously on the contrary (ie in case of breakout of the moving average and resistance) we might have an upward movement up to the previous month tops on levels $1480.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (6 June 2013)

*INTEREST RATE IN EUROPE AND UK*

Hi everybody,

also today I start my daily post with an Australian data, the first quarter GDP, resulted lower than expected. Otherwise the gross domestic product in the euro zone, in line with expectations, had a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013.
From the United States we had the Fed's Beige Book that reported a moderate growth of the economy (Dallas Fed was the only one of the 12 Fed districts to report a strong growth).
The main stock markets closed negative.
Tomorrow we will have high volatility due to the rate decisions in Europe and in the UK (and the respective monetary policy communications), in addition to the jobless claims the U.S.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Gbp: today we consider this cross that will be directly affected by the rate decisions of tomorrow! We are in the middle of a medium-term laterality and, just now, very close to the 0.85 support level. One of my bullish signals could push the price upward to level 0.86 while, on the contrary,  a breakout of the support could generate a down trend to the static and dynamic area 0.84 and resume the uptrend line started almost a year ago. Anyway considering a good setup in one of the two extreme levels of this laterality would allow us to have a better risk/return!



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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## mauriforex (7 June 2013)

*TOMORROW NON FARM PAYROLLS*

Hi everybody,

today's session confirmed the weakness of the stock markets that could continue this downward phase after the upward movement of May.
As expected, nothing changed in Europe about the rate decisions of the ECB and the BoE which confirmed the current 0.50% and the current monetary policy. The English Central Bank confirmed the 375 billion pounds of monthly asset purchase while Mario Draghi, in his press conference, underlined that the ECB continues to monitor the economic development of the euro area (expected in slight decrease in 2013) and will take stimulus measures only if it’ll be necessary (the result was an upward move of the euro to the 1-month tops!).
From the United States we had the jobless claims data which was higher than expected at 346.000.
Always considering the U.S. labor market we will have tomorrow the unemployment rate and the most important market mover in Forex market, the change in nonfarm employment (Non Farm Payrolls). The same data are scheduled from Canada.
Pay attention to the volatility and the management of the opened positions!

ANALYSIS
Eur/ Usd: the confirmation of the ECB's policy appreciated further the euro which continues its very short term ascending phase. The next key level to point out is the resistance 1.32 (also dynamic for the arrival of the moving average in the monthly chart!) with the view of searching one of my short trading signals with target 1,28 . Obviously, in case of breakout the view would change into "bullish" and therefore I would be looking for buying signals. Let's wait and see what the market will decide and we'll act accordingly.



Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini


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