# Fat Prophets - Fat Free email stocks



## RichKid (28 November 2007)

Fat Prophets often provides clues about certain stocks that it favours in their emails without giving the name of the stock. These stocks are usually recommended to their subscribers beforehand imo (this is often stated in the email) so that any further buying interest can only be to the advantage of current fp subscribers.

Today's email had me hunting for clues and I think I've identified the oil co referred to the email as TAP Oil (see the TAP thread for my post today).

In future, we could ID the co on this thread initially and then continue discussion of the stock in the relevant stock thread once we're settled on its identity. There are normally two or three specific clues which allow us to zero in on the correct stock. 

Any ramping via this thread will not be tolerated. Please refer to the clues in the email and any evidence you accumulate when you post your guess here.
*
To discuss fat prophets in general, or to critique their service, please use the general fat prophets thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=249702#post249702
*
Here is my post with evidence and analysis of TAP in relation to the most recent FP email from the TAP thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=229455&postcount=95


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## eddyeagle (30 November 2007)

Sounds like a good plan Richkid. 
I read the FP email everyweek and then work out what they are recommending. This week was TAP oil.


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## Riles (1 December 2007)

Aaahh, Tap oil eh? I also wondered who they were talking about so now I know!
I did work out the goldie they were talking about - SBM.
I actually sold SBM today - figuring the SP may drop back soon on the back of the SPP which is set at 63c.
So I'll have to have a look at TAP now...


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## RichKid (1 December 2007)

Riles said:


> Aaahh, Tap oil eh? I also wondered who they were talking about so now I know!
> I did work out the goldie they were talking about - SBM.
> I actually sold SBM today - figuring the SP may drop back soon on the back of the SPP which is set at 63c.
> So I'll have to have a look at TAP now...




Yes Riles, I thought it was SBM too from that old email, not sure if they still hold or have sold SBM. That's the catch, once they get you in you need to manage the position yourself. Glad to see other followers of this thread Eddy- many hands make light work so it's good for us to check each other's research. 

Note that FP do make spectacular mistakes sometimes so just identifying a stock from their email doesn't guarantee $$$$.


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## eddyeagle (1 December 2007)

I have been following their emails quite closely over the last few months and invested in a handful of their recommendations. I have done quite well so far -Carnavon Petroleum, Bannerman Resources, and a few gold stocks including SBM. 

They are pretty positive on TAP and I read the latest TAP presentation and there seems to be a lot of potential there, so I might consider buying into this one too.


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## grace (12 December 2007)

I just received an email from Fat Prophets about a uranium explorer in Namibia with an estimated initial resource of 30-40 mill lb U308 that they are pushing.  Is this Bannerman?  I only received it today.  Don't Bannerman already have a first resource?


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## alphman (12 December 2007)

grace said:


> I just received an email from Fat Prophets about a uranium explorer in Namibia with an estimated initial resource of 30-40 mill lb U308 that they are pushing.  Is this Bannerman?  I only received it today.  Don't Bannerman already have a first resource?




I thought it was EXT...


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## stock nub (12 December 2007)

grace said:


> I just received an email from Fat Prophets about a uranium explorer in Namibia with an estimated initial resource of 30-40 mill lb U308 that they are pushing.  Is this Bannerman?  I only received it today.  Don't Bannerman already have a first resource?




Yer Grace that is deffinately Extract they are talking about.

Maiden resource announcement soon to be released aiming for around 30-40 mill lb U308


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## JTLP (16 January 2008)

Can anybody decipher the 2 gold companies in the Fat Prophets email today.

Not too sure on the 1st gold mention, but the 2nd one I think is in reference to Centamin.

Any help? Analysis from smart people :


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## grace (16 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> Can anybody decipher the 2 gold companies in the Fat Prophets email today.
> 
> Not too sure on the 1st gold mention, but the 2nd one I think is in reference to Centamin.
> 
> Any help? Analysis from smart people :




Both of the two first ones mentioned are in WA, but they mention the egypt connection and that would be as you pointed out Centamin (previous buy).  Busy researching the first two.


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## grace (16 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> Can anybody decipher the 2 gold companies in the Fat Prophets email today.
> 
> Not too sure on the 1st gold mention, but the 2nd one I think is in reference to Centamin.
> 
> Any help? Analysis from smart people :




I think the second one is St Barbara SBM, because the $100 mill cap raising matches up and the price of 88c plus 37c low at August all matches up.


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## grace (16 January 2008)

Sorry, I think I read it wrong....all of the info (I thought they were describing 3 companies) is St Barbara SBM.  You have the second one Centamin CNT.


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## eddyeagle (16 January 2008)

Yep agree with that - SBM and Centamin


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## eddyeagle (16 January 2008)

Do they also talk about Andean Resources at the bottom of the email?


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## BlingBling (16 January 2008)

Remember that they are using those stocks as an example to lure you in and are not BUYs right now.


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## barnz2k (16 January 2008)

funny, been thinking recently about this too. That they give just enough info to let you figure it out, but so true - they dont just give the name which would piss off the paying subscribers, but you can work it out and buy what they subscribers already have, and helping them. Smart.

still could be useful though.
We should start tracking a few of them, noting the stock and the price at the time the newsletter was issued.
Then see how many of them gain over time.


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## JTLP (17 January 2008)

BlingBling said:


> Remember that they are using those stocks as an example to lure you in and are not BUYs right now.




How sound are your claims BB?

I know in their emails they highlight their various successes, but they also show some nice hypothetical portfolio gains?

I wonder what the success/failure ratio is of the stocks they own?


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## BlingBling (17 January 2008)

A lot of their stocks in these letters are or have done really well. I know a few personally that I have invested in that they used in the free newsletter that tanked. So it's best to do as was mentioned above and make a watchlist and follow em closely.  I am a subscriber and put each recommendation they make in a WL @ $2k for each recommendation. It's very interesting to see how they fair as a whole..  Looking at the watchlists from May last year the Aussie report is negative and the mining is much better.


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## JTLP (17 January 2008)

"Looking at the watchlists from May last year the Aussie report is negative and the mining is much better. "

Aussie report? Mining report? Can you please expand on this?

I guess thats the punt of the market though as well. If you invest when the newsletter comes out and they come good, you are . If not, you are right, you got duped...tough call


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## heredownunder (21 January 2008)

I think FP make some good calls. Although, working out when to get into them is a different issue. I used to subscribe but don't anymore, as a few of their recommendations I got into, only to see the share price keep going down. Their analyst might be right, but if the market doesn't agree, then you are stuffed. After losing money on a recommendation, I have sold out and waited for it to hit bottom, before getting back in.


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## eddyeagle (23 January 2008)

Just had a look at today's newsletter and I believe the cheap companies they refer to are AVO and TZN. 

The biotech is AVX. 

If anyone knows the 12c Mexican company please advise. 

Cheers


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## Rocket man (23 January 2008)

possible AZS - a guess 
I dont subscribe to FP and so havent read it


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## justincase (23 January 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> The biotech is AVX.




Definitely AVX, I was just comming on here to add that but you beat me to it.


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## JMcDog (23 January 2008)

Yes FP have recommended AZS over the last 12 - 18 months so probably a good guess.


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## Da Cat (23 January 2008)

yep, definitely AZS (Azure) for the Mexican explorer. Tony Rivera is the guy they're plugging - formerly of Jubilee Mines Cosmos pit (or Deeps) fame - can't remember which.


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## eddyeagle (23 January 2008)

Yep agree AZS - thanks for that - will get it on my watch list


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## bvbfan (24 January 2008)

AVO and TZN where the two other miners talked about in the last email


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## barnz2k (26 January 2008)

Im confused by their view on BHP



> Do you know which scenario is correct?
> 
> Fat Prophets Members do.
> 
> If you don't know, we'd respectfully suggest you *shouldn't be investing* in BHP Billiton shares.







> It won't be a surprise to readers of this email that one of the companies we recommended as a BUY was BHP Billiton. With the shares back down to around $32 or $33 we find them *very attractive*.




Am i missing the synical tone of the first one and saying if i dont know that BHP is a buy then move away because im an idiot? Or are they contradicting each other?


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## Miner (27 January 2008)

barnz2k said:


> Im confused by their view on BHP
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Barnz2k

Do not worry with Fat Prophets.
The amount of money they charge the return is rather not enough. Frankly FP should not boast for recommending any of the top ASX 50 shares including BHP. If they recommend someting very odd and not on speculation but pure research then they should take the credit .
They are synical and also arrogant bunch of sales people.
I would rather learn by own mistake than paying them $$$ to give them opportunity to pass their mistakes at my cost.

Regards


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## SM Junkie (27 January 2008)

I don't believe you should place too much value in free emails from any analyst, after all it is really only a marketing tool.

I probably disagree with Miner as my experience with FP has been nothing but positive. But their philosophy is in line with mine as a long term investor.  I don't take all their recommendations and checking what others have written on ASF helps me to get a better feel for a company. 

As far as cost goes, yes its expensive but inline with any other analyst service and I see it as a tax deduction anyway.

The current environment has ceretainly demonstrated the conflicting views of analysts, I've particularly enjoyed the conflicting views being presented in the press and on business channels. No one really has a clue, they are just making estimates based on the information they know at the time and I guess its the unknown that gives us that exciting buzz.


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## barnz2k (27 January 2008)

Yeah I never meant to take it very seriously, I already have BHP shares, and plan to hold them, more just curious by the fact they seem to contradict themselves in a single email.

Also I think when you see their "average return %" it is not even close to what you should expect - as you would need to invest same amount in every share they suggest if its a fair statement.. know what I mean?

I like it for possibly hearing about companies would never have heard of, then do own research on it. I've never actually followed anything from FP.

SMJ - Can a subscription like FP be tax deducted from gains on shares?


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## RichKid (28 January 2008)

*Ladies and gents, please pay attention!!
If you would like to discuss fat prophets in general or want to critique the service use the general fat prophets thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=249702#post249702

The current thread is only for working out the identity of the mystery stock.

Thank you for you cooperation!

RichKid
moderator
PS I will issue infractions or delete posts if anyone continues to be lazy and posts off topic.*


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## jw888wj (28 January 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Just had a look at today's newsletter and I believe the cheap companies they refer to are AVO and TZN.
> 
> The biotech is AVX.




The biotech obviously is AVX.


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## eddyeagle (30 January 2008)

Is the 'perfect gold sector' stock DIO?


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## eddyeagle (30 January 2008)

From today's newsletter I will say the gold stock is DIO and the oil stock is IPM.


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## stock nub (7 February 2008)

Anyone have any idea what these 3 are, email came out yesterday

Below is the quote from their free email

"Here is a flavour of just three of our favourite gold stocks… 


The Egyptian gold miner with over 11 million ounces of gold reserves.

The West Australian company whose corporate goal is "To produce 1 million ounces of gold per annum and have reserves of 10 million ounces by the end of 2010."

The Argentinean gold explorer about which we recently said is "one of the world's most exciting emerging gold players."

Thanks in advance


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## JMcDog (7 February 2008)

I think they are probably referring to SBM, CNT & Andean Resources (code escapes me for the moment and too lazy to look it up!!!).

What did they say about VRE which they recommended forever and a day?????  LST (one of their favourites) also has significant exposure to VRE.

MUN is another of their favourite goldies (which is a real goodie).

Cheers, JM


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## Goldmann (8 February 2008)

The FP response to the VRE "situation" is posted in the VRE stock thread...  no one saw that coming I think.

and yep - AVX is the biotech... I got on at the first tip - very glad i did - I wont recommend for fear of ramping but do some research on the company... ABN also have a buy out on it at around 70c.  But they are a fair way off the materialisation of any of their drugs, and hence get battered in a market like the present.


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## eddyeagle (20 February 2008)

Does anyone know what the Platinum and Silver stocks were from today's email?

Ps. their banking sector prediction has been spot on!


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## roland (20 February 2008)

Today's FAT alert:

As we stated in our report last night on Couer D'Alene (CXC), we were awaiting
a technical signal before placing another buy recommendation on the stock.
The US listing, CDE, had broken below a rising trendline and we were reluctant
to buy while the stock traded below this trendline.

Following a strong night for commodities and precious metals in the US last night,
Couer rallied by 8%, resulting in the stock pushing back above the 
rising trendline. We view this as a bullish development and combined with our
positive fundamental outlook as discussed in last night's report, we recommend
CXC as a buy to all Members

CXC will no doubt be up strongly today. Based on last night's move in the
US, the stock should trade around $5.20. We would be comfortable recommending
a buy at around these levels

Members should note that as the company's two major mines are in the ramp
phase, there is still a considerable amount of development and commissioning
 risk so this stock will continue to display a high level of volatility


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## eddyeagle (20 February 2008)

Nice work Roland!


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## roland (20 February 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Nice work Roland!




no probs - it helps to have a couple of friends here and there. If you have a look at CXC and the potential, it is really an enticing prospect. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.


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## roland (20 February 2008)

Looking at the charts, it looks like CXC will probably run a little harder than it did today.


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## roland (20 February 2008)

Hey, there was also a MACD crossover that is sure to affect the CXC SP. I don;t hold any yet, but starting to feeli like I should.


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## Muschu (27 February 2008)

I got this in an email today and wonder if anyone can identify the stocks?

"We have more on our stronger for longer resources boom theme a little further down, including… 

*	Details of one of our favourite gold plays, a company that looks like it could be sitting on an amazing 3-5 million ounces of gold, and;


*	A mid-sized oil exploration company set to drill 17 wells within five separate project areas during 2008, about whom we recently said "…is sure to generate exploration excitement."

But first, we have a little more on the stock market, including the name of one of our top uranium stocks, a company we think could be on the cusp of something huge. "


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## lsj84 (27 February 2008)

google (asx oman), you will get what you want. sometimes i dont even believe Fat gives out their stocks so easily... may it be a trap? haha


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## michael_selway (27 February 2008)

lsj84 said:


> google (asx oman), you will get what you want. sometimes i dont even believe Fat gives out their stocks so easily... may it be a trap? haha




So which stock are you reffering to?



thx

MS


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## eddyeagle (27 February 2008)

The oil stock would be Oilex... I took this from their website:

Fatprophets Mining & Resources 18th January 2007
18 Jan 2008 - 
Exerpt from the Oilex article on the Fat Prophets website:

First well in Oman drilling program underway
Oilex has recently commenced its first drilling programme in Oman, which forms just one part of a diverse international drilling programme, with India the other major country of importance. The combined programme is likely to see the drilling of up to 14 wells within five separate project areas over the next 12 months. With oil prices continuing to trade at close to record levels of between US$90-$100 a barrel, could there be a better time to generate exploration excitement?

"Oman is an exciting exploration destination as it is one of the world's most significant oil producing nations."


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## eddyeagle (5 March 2008)

Today's Iron stock would have to be Territory Resources (TTY)? 
And the gold stock SBM...


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## eddyeagle (12 March 2008)

What are people's thoughts on the two oil stocks below?

Beaten Down Stock #1 - A small oil production and exploration company whose share price has fallen 50% from its recent peak, leaving the whole company valued at around $65 million. 

Today the company is forecasting profits of over $16 million in 2008, putting the company on a price to earnings ratio of just 4 times. If that's not enough, the company themselves think their own shares might be worth around $1.55, some 384% above their current share price. 

Beaten Down Stock #2 - The company about whom we recently told our Fat Prophets Members that "Despite continuing to add impressively to its West Australian mineral sands position through aggressive exploration, the company has recently hit a brick wall with respect to its share price." 

The shares are off 40% from their recent peak*. We believe the market is missing out on a fantastic longer-term opportunity, and the company remains a core holding in our portfolio.


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## lazyfish (13 March 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> What are people's thoughts on the two oil stocks below?
> 
> Beaten Down Stock #1 - A small oil production and exploration company whose share price has fallen 50% from its recent peak, leaving the whole company valued at around $65 million.
> 
> ...




I am guessing #1 is SAE? Hit 68 cents couple month ago and trading at 32.5 today. 14M profit expected in 2008, market cap is over 70M though...


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## rhyslivs (19 March 2008)

Anyone got any idea what the two gold stocks this time are?

These are the clues:

Hidden Gem Gold Stock #1 
We have long regarded this West Australian company as a highly attractive, emerging gold player. In a sector dominated by projects with high-cost operations and flagging profitability, this company is set to be a fresh new face on the block, with strong operating margins. 
Just recently the company announced that it had substantially boosted its resource base at its flagship mining location by 23% to 1.35 million ounces of gold. 
We remain overwhelmingly positive on this company's story. There are very few emerging, high-quality gold producers in the Australian market, which means that the company should undergo a significant re-rating as first stand-alone gold production approaches during the middle of 2008. 

Hidden Gem Gold Stock #2 
The poor share price performance of this fellow West Australian gold explorer continues to stagger us. 
We have had numerous meetings with their Managing Director, and we must reiterate that in our view the company appears to be doing everything right. Yet it still is unable to generate any sort of positive share price momentum. 
We think the current price weakness presents an outstanding buying opportunity for astute investors in the near-term.


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## BlingBling (19 March 2008)

I know the 2nd one without having to go past the first line!


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## alankew (19 March 2008)

Any  of these AAR coz they could certainly do with a boost


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## Mousie (19 March 2008)

Hahahahaha I love that one Alan don't take it the wrong way, but I just find it somewhat funny in that don't we all hope for any kind of boost for our favourite pets especially in times like these

Hope you're doing great otherwise


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## stock nub (9 April 2008)

Hi guys..

Anyone have any idea the names of these 2 companies

STOCK 1
Beaten Down Stock #1 - A small oil production and exploration company whose share price has fallen over 50% from its recent peak, leaving the whole company valued at around $65 million. 

Today the company is forecasting profits of over $16 million in 2008, putting the company on a price to earnings ratio of just 4 times. If that's not enough, the company themselves think their own shares might be worth around $1.55, some 384% above their current share price. 

STOCK 2
We also think we've found another key winner, one that happily flies under the radar of most of the resource investment community. At a market value of around $260 million, compared to BHP's $225 billion, we think it's just a matter of time before this small Queensland explorer with the large and growing coal base will see its share price reflect the inherent value in the company. 

There are plenty of other things to like about this company too… 


It has no debt and plenty of cash in the bank.

It is focused on coal exploration and development in Queensland, having accumulated attractive acreage positions.

Its aim is to progress its current identified coal resources towards production within the next few years whilst at the same time, further exploration will hopefully yield new coal deposits - it has an aggressive exploration programme during 2008 at almost double last year's budget.

Longer-term coal demand is anticipated to rise by around 60% between now and 2030, according to the World Energy Council. Of this demand, Asia is expected to account for around 86% of the increase.
And all this for a company currently worth just $260 million. No wonder we currently rate this company as a BUY, having done so since mid December. 

But that may be about to change, given the threefold increase in the price of coking coal.

Thanks


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## Miner (10 April 2008)

stock nub said:


> Hi guys..
> 
> Anyone have any idea the names of these 2 companies
> 
> ...




My guess is the second stock is EER . It is owned by promoter of RMT . Currently RMT is much devalued with a coal seam result. EER is constantly approaching above 43 cents and it rose to 80 cents soon after listing . Please visit www.eer.com.au 

*East Energy Resources has acquired the rights to two coal tenements in the Bowen Basin and Adavale Basin in Queensland. *The Norwich Park tenement is an exploration phase project with identified coal material in the western portion of the block. Coal measures are being mined adjacent to the tenement area and further data review, exploration and drilling are required to assess the area. The Blackall tenement includes a potential quantity of thermal coal measures which have been defined by a limited number of drill holes. Large adjacent areas await evaluation.

The proposed exploration and development programs are consistent with good industry and technical practice for the evaluation of mineral potential in the areas. Programs may be adjusted subject to the grant of the Blackall tenement and results available at specific intervals.


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## Miner (10 April 2008)

After posting on EER - I used some 6th sense.
I think the first stock is OILEX. Fat prophets report is their site and their recommendation is HOLD.
_There has been a noteworthy softening of prices in Oilex since the stock fell short of resistance at 80p in
January. As shown on the daily chart, this well-established barrier has capped repeated rally attempts
since July and is the key to a sustained revival of the longer-term upward trend.
In the meantime, the recent slip below 60p leaves the stock exposed to a deeper correction. However, with near-term technical indicators exploring oversold territory, we believe that downside risks are limited.
In the weeks ahead, we anticipate further choppy trade with support between 53p and 50p protecting the  August low of 44.5p. On the topside, a break above 64p would ease immediate downside risks with a
*further gain above 70p to return focus to the 80p barrier*._


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## resourcesman (10 April 2008)

the coal one is not EER, its COK


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## eddyeagle (10 April 2008)

I dont think the first stock is OILEX because for $1.55 to be 384% above the stock price, the current price would have to be around 40 cents and Oilex currently trades around $1.25. 

I agree the second one is COK.


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## Macronomics (14 April 2008)

Hey there, 

I agree the second stock has to be COK - Cockatoo coal.
The company's website has a Fat Prophets report from April 10...and a report from Pattersons
Have a read - very interesting - http://www.cockatoocoal.com.au/research.aspx

cheers


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## Tukker (18 April 2008)

> There’s $380 Million Worth Of Value In This Oil Company
> 
> Let’s use a simple example to illustrate the point.
> 
> ...





Any Ideas?


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## JMcDog (18 April 2008)

Yes, this would be Salinas Energy SAE.  Read their latest presentation which is on their web site - February 2008 - and you will see that there is a "perfect match" with respect to FP's email.

Cheers, JM


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## rub92me (18 April 2008)

I would say Petsec Energy (PSA). Market cap is around 117 million and price has halved.


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## rub92me (18 April 2008)

I agree, SAE is a better match. Cash position of PSA is different (i.e. they have debt). So SAE it is!


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2008)

Tukker said:


> Any Ideas?




I do have some ideas but I'm unsure how receptive the posters on this thread may be to them.

There is no evidence that brokers or tipsters such as Fat Prophet are any more accurate at predicting future price movements than a monkey tossing a dart at a list of stocks on a board.

You concentrate on stocks from tipsters that fulfil your and their hopes while ignoring the hundreds of tips that if followed would have led people into investing in dogs.

Read this guys webpage and books, his name is Nicholas Taleb and he was a statistician.trader for a number of big broking houses in the US.

It may make you more objective about the future.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

gg


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## Tukker (18 April 2008)

Thank Garpal, ye I totally understand what your saying, I'm a system trader myself, i just enjoy the detective nature of this thread. Its just for fun.  

And to be fair to Fat Prophet (which i don't subscribe to), they do fit into the "better than most" analyst group. You really can get some duds. 

Cheers


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2008)

Tukker said:


> Thank Garpal, ye I totally understand what your saying, I'm a system trader myself, i just enjoy the detective nature of this thread. Its just for fun.
> 
> And to be fair to Fat Prophet (which i don't subscribe to), they do fit into the "better than most" analyst group. You really can get some duds.
> 
> Cheers




Yes mate,

Point taken,

I had a mate once in the UK who had a pet monkey, he was fairly well off (my mate that is) and they were both alcoholics. The monkey died from cirrhosis of the liver and my mate followed him to the bourse in the sky a few weeks later with a similar liver condition.

The monkey used pick the stocks, my mate said, by screeching as he listened to my mate read the stocks out. 

Rather like the way Rene Rivkin used pick his really, and look how well Rene did.

He'd probably have the RSPCA and the UK equivalent of Today Tonight all over his place now if it happened today.

gg


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## sleepy (19 April 2008)

"P.P.P.S. The poor share price performance of the West Australian gold explorer we told you about a few weeks ago continues to stagger us. We have had numerous meetings with their Managing Director, and we must reiterate that in our view the company appears to be doing everything right. We think the current price weakness will soon present an outstanding buying opportunity for astute investors."

Just a guess ... but are they referring to WMT - Western Metals?

sleepy


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## Tukker (19 April 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes mate,
> 
> Point taken,
> 
> ...




Haha So what your saying is that demand for monkeys is at an all time high in this current market  

Yea I think its SAE as well. Nice work JMcDog


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## Miner (20 April 2008)

Tukker said:


> Haha So what your saying is that demand for monkeys is at an all time high in this current market
> 
> Yea I think its SAE as well. Nice work JMcDog




Some monkeys are doing very well in Cricket in IPL India. 
The price of those monkeys have outsmarted in auction than many world ranked cricketers. 
It is your guess just as to find out the company from FP report !!


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## eddyeagle (21 April 2008)

Sleepy - I think the underperforming gold stock is DIO. 
It continues to get hammered!


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## eddyeagle (23 April 2008)

From todays newsletter the oil stocks are SAE and CVN...


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## AUtrader (14 May 2008)

The Stock Market Is Finally Waking Up To These Cheap Oil Companies 

In our view, triple-digit oil prices are here to stay. And based on the recent price movements of some of the Fat Prophets' favourite small to medium sized oil companies, it appears like the market is finally waking up to this new dawn… 
  	April 2008 Low	Price Today	Change
Small US producer/explorer	$0.29*	$0.485*	UP 67%*
Mid sized Thai producer/explorer	$0.455*	$0.755*	UP 66%*
Mid sized WA explorer/producer	$1.545*	$2.00*	UP 29%*


(All prices taken from Yahoo Finance as at Monday 12th May 2008 close) 

Just this week, the small US producer/explorer mentioned above made an announcement saying "…we fully expect production levels at the field to reach record highs within the next few weeks, coinciding with record world oil prices… by more than doubling our production rates in the coming weeks we expect a material increase in our monthly sales revenues." 

The mid-sized WA explorer/producer mentioned above is in the middle of a $60 million drilling programme in 2008 pursuing a portfolio of moderate risk, high impact opportunities. 

As part of that programme, this month the results of a potentially "game changer" exploration well are due to be released to the market. The company says the drilling result has the potential to see the company's oil and gas reserves increase by a massive 250%. 

If they do strike gas in a big way, we'd imagine the shares could take off. The high impact exploration well is drilling as we speak, with results due at the end of May.

You Might Be Able To Pick Up This Oil Explorer On The Cheap 

As we mentioned above, not all of our specially selected small and medium oil production and exploration companies have joined in the recent share price fun. 

Take the mid-sized oil exploration companywe've previously highlighted here about whom we recently said "…is sure to generate exploration excitement." 

The potential oil resource in place in the area they are drilling is estimated to lie somewhere between 6 million and 40 million barrels, with mean oil resources estimated at 20 million barrels. 

We first recommended this exciting oil explorer as a BUY in January last year when the shares were $1.64*. We re-recommended them as a BUY in January this year at around the same price, despite the company making excellent progress over the intervening 12 months. 

Fast forward to today, and largely courtesy of the sub-prime fall out, the shares currently trade around the $1.05* mark. That is 36%* down on the price we were happy to recommend them as a BUY just a few months ago. It just might turn out to be an excellent opportunity for new investors to buy shares in this company on the cheap. 

With $48 million in cash and receivables, all in all, we think this company adds up to an excellent medium-high risk/high reward oil explorer.


Any ideas?


----------



## wipz (14 May 2008)

The thai producer they mention is definately CVN.
Cheers


----------



## stock nub (14 May 2008)

small US is SAE


----------



## Lukeyz (15 May 2008)

Mid Size WA explorer/producer, TAP??


----------



## JMcDog (15 May 2008)

Yep, all correct!  BTW the last explorer mentioned is OEX.

Cheers, JM


----------



## eddyeagle (21 May 2008)

SAE, CVN and TAP for the oil stocks in today's report.

LGL and DIO for the gold stocks...


----------



## lsj84 (22 May 2008)

Has any1 actually subscribed Fat's reports? I just wonder if these tips in their free weekly letters are the entire collection of their current recommandations or only a few of them. I'm new to their reports. Has any1 tracked the performances of the stocks mentioned in the past letters? thx


----------



## eddyeagle (22 May 2008)

Everyweek they just give hints to a few of their current recommendations...
This is only a small sample of their recommended portfolio...
I have bought quite a few of their stocks over the last 6 months and the performances have been mixed: ie. I am up 100% on CVN but down 30% on DIO...


----------



## tezz (22 May 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Everyweek they just give hints to a few of their current recommendations...
> This is only a small sample of their recommended portfolio...
> I have bought quite a few of their stocks over the last 6 months and the performances have been mixed: ie. I am up 100% on CVN but down 30% on DIO...




EPE was a good one finished up 28c today, was 5c about a week ago,
ZRL, good report, they recommend a buy,finished 29c today


----------



## tezz (22 May 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Everyweek they just give hints to a few of their current recommendations...
> This is only a small sample of their recommended portfolio...
> I have bought quite a few of their stocks over the last 6 months and the performances have been mixed: ie. I am up 100% on CVN but down 30% on DIO...




CVN is my best stock up 850%
DIO is at last starting to improve


----------



## JTLP (22 May 2008)

I think Fat Prophets really need to give CVN a rest. I hold them (long term) but seriously every time i see that email all i see is "the thai producer we stated at just 5.4 cents blah blah"...its like their one claim to fame.

Come on fatties...roll out some new info


----------



## eddyeagle (4 June 2008)

The oil stock they plug in today's report is Incremental Petroleum if anyone is wondering...


----------



## Miner (4 June 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> The oil stock they plug in today's report is Incremental Petroleum if anyone is wondering...



Interesting discovery and thanks

I visited IPM website and found two brokers reports almost at same time
DO not know how could two independent broker reports came out at the same time. 
See attached the reports as available from public domainhttp://www.incrementalpetroleum.com/reports/IPM_15Apr08.pdf
Worth reading 

Regards


----------



## tradingforwealth (12 June 2008)

Hi guys, any news from fat prophets on companies such as SBM and the overall condition of the market?


----------



## tezz (12 June 2008)

not much this week, they are predicting oil to reach $200bl because of demand from China and India, plus most of the big easy oil pools are gone, the population in those 2 country's is expected to reach 3.5 bil in the 2020"s, this was the world population in the 60's,
I think there will be no end to the resource boom, infact its probably just started, ignore the doomsayers, get into gold, oil and base metals,
Latest buy recomendation Mundo Minerals around 60c, now a producer.


----------



## lsj84 (14 June 2008)

I think for gold it is a long term thing. I've heard many analysts saying the right price is at 2000/ouce instead 900. but it will be a bumpy road before that kind of price. For single stocks, I believe in SBM and MUN. SBM aims at being the third largest producer in aus after newcrest and Lihir. not too sure about MUN but its 3 projects are also very promising. At the moment the pressure comes from the USD, I dont think the money printer in the US will tighten their belt this soon or any time soon, and i think in the long term USD can only go down. long term = 5 yrs, for me.


----------



## dan-o (19 June 2008)

anyone figured out this week's stock recommendations?


----------



## eddyeagle (19 June 2008)

CVN (oil) and TTY (iron) are two of todays stocks they discuss...


----------



## eddyeagle (26 June 2008)

Fat Prophets giving OXR a plug today (the big miner). 

Anyone know what the oil stock and the bank stock they mentioned were?


----------



## limegreen (30 June 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Fat Prophets giving OXR a plug today (the big miner).
> 
> Anyone know what the oil stock and the bank stock they mentioned were?




I think one of the others was DML (Botswana copper)


----------



## lsj84 (11 July 2008)

why is fat so quiet now? Do they start to doubt about their belief since Marc Faber said the commondities face correction into the next 6 to 12 months?


----------



## prana (11 July 2008)

maybe they are reading this forum....


----------



## lsj84 (11 July 2008)

Think wisely, they cant afford stoping talking, that is why they exist. 

Anyone got the idea with SBM? it was recommanded by Fat, after right issue, the price is even below the issuing price of 40c. What is going on apart from banks reducing their holdings?


----------



## michael_selway (12 July 2008)

lsj84 said:


> why is fat so quiet now? Do they start to doubt about their belief since Marc Faber said the commondities face correction into the next 6 to 12 months?




Hasnt there already been a correction in commodities e.g. precious, basemetals, uranium etc?

Also any links?

thx

MS


----------



## eddyeagle (12 July 2008)

Quite a few of their stocks have tanked big time in the last few months...

SBM
CXC
DIO 
VRE


----------



## lsj84 (14 July 2008)

There was an article on Kitco.com a few days ago saying the Australian junior gold miners have been hit very hard and believing it has been a serious over reaction. Now I believe SBM is a super bargain, for even Macquarie believes the price shouldn't go below 40c.


----------



## tezz (14 July 2008)

One of their recent stocks they recommended was ZRL, (zambian resources),
good drilling results for AU, CU etc, the stock has been trashed like everything else in these uncertain times, I bought today at 18.5 just after the latest update ann. on the Joint Venture with RIO on this Uranium deposit,
They also said that exploreres and juniors are the first to get dumped in bear markets because they have more risk.
Tezz


----------



## lsj84 (16 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hasnt there already been a correction in commodities e.g. precious, basemetals, uranium etc?
> 
> Also any links?




Here is the link http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a9cZ913v7zTQ&refer=asia


----------



## limegreen (9 August 2008)

FP have been remarkably quiet of late. Although I guess when one of their flagship boasts halves in price...


----------



## Aussiest (10 August 2008)

Does Fat Prophets ever recommend blue chip stocks? Or are they all small caps?


----------



## swill (12 August 2008)

Please dont rely on FP to much, take it from someone 
who has been burnt. VRE, SOT, DIO 
DYOR


----------



## eddyeagle (13 August 2008)

One of their sales guys keeps calling me to try and get me to sign up...

He was quoting a one year return of 40% in their oz mining portfolio. 

I think any muppet could have made that kind of return in 2007. 

I sent him an email with 6 months charts of the following stocks: SBM, DIO, TZN, CXC and TTY - all stocks they have been recommending heavily and that have been absolutely smashed!

It will be interesting to see how they fare going forward.


----------



## BlingBling (13 August 2008)

swill said:


> Please dont rely on FP to much, take it from someone
> who has been burnt. VRE, SOT, DIO
> DYOR




If you'd picked COK & EPE (like I didn't  ) you would still be well in front!


----------



## Aussiest (13 August 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> One of their sales guys keeps calling me to try and get me to sign up...
> 
> He was quoting a one year return of 40% in their oz mining portfolio.




Omg, i have a guy from another subscription service calling me and because i keep asking questions, he says, "look XXX, i don't think we're going to be able to work together", and all this sort of stuff (like we're breaking up from a relationship). I'm sure they have a great product, but:


He wouldn't give me a PRICE!

He quoted an astronomical return, which is quite feasible, however, relies on high leverage

And, he answered just about every one of my sensible questions with another question, thus not giving me an answer. He couldn't even define their 'core' service to me during our initial conversation.

I'm sure they've got a good service, but this salesperson's tactics are bordering on abusive.


----------



## lsj84 (14 August 2008)

Aussiest said:


> Omg, i have a guy from another subscription service calling me and because i keep asking questions.




I'd be very interested to know which firm that is


----------



## shag (16 August 2008)

they r very quiet, fat profits
only talking of immenent buys while the rest of their pet stocks go further south
their pet commodities, uranium and gold rn't doing too well.
i joined up for some reason...
i read thier recomendations pretty carefully tho.
their web page is pretty crud.


----------



## tezz (16 September 2008)

Every stock good or bad is getting hammered, FP say the selling now is to pay down dept.
There will also be tremendous buying oppotunities when the market turns around. I'd have to agree with that.
They also say what is happening now and what could happen is similar to what happened in 1975, when the market turned around then, stocks moved up so much they said it was quite frightening, lets hope so.
commodities have taken a big hit as well and so has the AU dollar so gold for example miners are still getting well over $900 oz.
I won't be selling my stocks to another trader thats for sure.


----------



## Motogoon (16 September 2008)

Yeh, as much as it hurts me to look at my portfolio at the moment all i can do now is hold on till the turn around, someone's buying all those stocks that are getting sold off now. kinda wish i'd sold a month ago & bought back in at the bargain prices now though. Ah well thats the benefit of hindsight.


----------



## Gspot (18 September 2008)

Can anyone tell me what company this is. Might give me something to do, while everyones head is stuck in the sand.


Tiny Aussie Miner Discovers $17.8bn 'Energy-Metal' Deposit

With a melting point of 2,623 ºC, this greyish metal is crucial to 95% 
of the world's oil refineries and all new nuclear reactors. 

But chances are you've never heard of it...

One tiny Aussie miner is poised to 'bust open' a 30-year 'Energy Metal' 
resource in the Pilbara... and could potentially deliver you 
400% gains by the last quarter of 2009

"Having been all but ignored for many years, this ('Energy Metal') is now being mined at a ferocious pace as oil, gas and nuclear groups discover how many ways they can use it..." -- MoneyWeek


----------



## subaru69 (18 September 2008)

Gspot said:


> Can anyone tell me what company this is. Might give me something to do, while everyones head is stuck in the sand.
> 
> 
> Tiny Aussie Miner Discovers $17.8bn 'Energy-Metal' Deposit
> ...





*Molybdenum*
Atomic Symbol: Mo, Melting Point: 2623  ºC. Atomic Weight: 95.94, Boiling Point: 4639  ºC. 

From Wiki:

ApplicationsThe ability of molybdenum to withstand extreme temperatures without significantly expanding or softening makes it useful in applications that involve intense heat, including the manufacture of aircraft parts, electrical contacts, industrial motors, and filaments.[20][6] Molybdenum is also used in alloys for its high corrosion resistance and weldability.[5][21] Most high-strength steel alloys are .25% to 8% molybdenum.[4] Despite being used in such small portions, more than 43 million kg of molybdenum is used as an alloying agent each year in stainless steels, tool steels, cast irons, and high-temperature superalloys.[5]

Because of its lower density and more stable price, molybdenum is implemented in the place of tungsten.[5] Molybdenum can be implemented both as an alloying agent and as a flame-resistant coating for other metals. Although its melting point is 2,623  °C (4,753  °F), molybdenum rapidly oxidizes at temperatures above 760  °C (1,400  °F), making it better-suited for use in vacuum environments.[20]

Molybdenum 99 is used as a parent radioisotope to the radioisotope Technetium-99, which is used in many medical procedures.

Molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) is used as a lubricant and an agent. It forms strong films on metallic surfaces, and is highly resistant to both extreme temperatures and high pressure, and for this reason, it is a common additive to engine motor oil; in case of a catastrophic failure, the thin layer of molybdenum prevents metal-on-metal contact. Lead molybdate co-precipitated with lead chromate and lead sulfate is a bright-orange pigment used with ceramics and plastics.[22] Molybdenum trioxide (MoO3) is used as an adhesive between enamels and metals.[23] Molybdenum powder is used as a fertilizer for some plants, such as cauliflower.[5]

Also used in NO, NO2, NOx analyzers in power plants for pollution controls. At 350  °C (662  °F) the element acts as a catalyst for NO2/NOx to form only NO molecules for consistent readings by infrared light.

Supply and demandAlthough current molybdenum production meets demand, refiners, or roasters, are expected to run into a shortfall between 2009 and 2015, depending on demand.

A roaster processes the molybdenum into a fine powder, pellets, or other forms. Total world molybdenum roaster capacity is currently 320 million pounds per year, barely enough to meet demand. There is not much excess roasting capacity, and no one is actively permitting for the production of any new roasters in the United States. Global roaster capacity also looks limited, and a future roaster shortage is predicted. The data above are based on the assumption that mines will be able to increase output.

Western demand is projected to increase by around 3 percent annually, while China and the CIS demand is projected to increase by around 10 percent annually, increasing overall global demand by around 4.5 percent annually. Increasing demand can be attributed to two main factors. Hydroprocessing catalysts are becoming essential for crude oil. The other contributing factor is the increase in nuclear reactor construction. There are 48 nuclear reactors to be built by 2013, and approximately 100 are to be built by 2020. The International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) says that an average reactor contains about 520,000 feet (160,000 m) of stainless steel alloy. Some larger reactors contain over 1 million feet of stainless steel alloy. Unless molybdenum mine production picks up at a rapid pace, shortfalls of the metal are expected to arrive around 2009.[29]


----------



## Boggo (18 September 2008)

It will most likely be one of these then... which one ?


----------



## Suby (18 September 2008)

It's Moly Mines Ltd (MOL).


----------



## johenmo (19 September 2008)

Yes - it is Moly mines (MOL).  The Chilean aspect to the deal and the 10 year deal fits in with all the advertising.  See the MOL thread and 
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page674?oid=57734&sn=Detail
for details.


----------



## Miner (20 September 2008)

Aussiest said:


> Omg, i have a guy from another subscription service calling me and because i keep asking questions, he says, "look XXX, i don't think we're going to be able to work together", and all this sort of stuff (like we're breaking up from a relationship). I'm sure they have a great product, but:
> 
> 
> He wouldn't give me a PRICE!
> ...




I found the sales persons cold calls from both Fat prophets and ASR are very much intimidating and they appeared to tell the would be customers that they are clever and customer is an idiot. 

They kept on speaking how great they are and when I asked to recommend one share only which I put my money - then the came with disclaimer we can guarantee under law etc all sort of bull.


----------



## Miner (20 September 2008)

Yes It is MOL. If you simply search their website with the keywords on energy play etc will match identical. Currently MOL is in dirt cheap and just managed to get some fund to survive So do not know if FP prediction could be right here.

DYOR


----------



## Gspot (20 September 2008)

Thanks all. I love this site. 
While everyone lives on facebook, I'm living on ASF, so much more interesting.


----------



## kagey (1 October 2008)

The above is very interesting information.
I have been quite disenchanted with most of the so-called "stock advice" services.   I was with FP for a time.  Yes, their web site is terrible.  The particularly annoying aspect of the 'service' was how they performed an annual 'report card' of their performance, supposedly based on feedback from their subscribers.   Having been a subscriber, I had the clearly unrealistic expectation that they would seek feedback from me.  I was with them for a few years, but feedback was never sought from me, nor I suspect, from many others.   I queried them (ie. what information is your report card based on) via email a couple of times, and was never given a reply.   I terminated 
my subscription with extreme prejudice.   They haven't bothered me since.  

I've had other subscriptions over the years, mainly out of curiosity.   I've come to a pretty simple conclusion :  if their trading is so good, why do they need to be writing newsletters ?   Clearly the return on their effort in writing newsletters and ersatz analysis is much greater than trading, and a much lower risk activity.  

Another perennial problem with newsletters - entering a trade at the price specified is virtually impossible, due to the presence of other recipients of the newsletter, who in their head long pursuit of instant riches bid up the price, resulting in poor performance or non entry.   I called this the bozo effect at the time, but on reflection maybe I was the bozo for persisting with the newsletter !

As the boom times are now well and truly over many of these newsletter writers will return to more productive jobs in the economy and leave us in peace.

Thanks again to others for sharing.  My comments above are offered in the same spirit, and simply reflect my experiences.

PS :   I should also note that performance from any newsletters I've tried is not terribly spectacular, not much beyond index funds or the better fund managers.


----------



## eddyeagle (1 October 2008)

Given that FP have pretty much stopped plugging their shares (mainly bc most have been smashed by over 50%) I thought I would ask you guys if anyone knows what this stock is:

Taken from Money Morning newsletter:

_Right now, a little-known Australian company is preparing to unleash a patented new technology... and single-handedly launch an enormously profitable and life-altering global revolution.

If you're clever enough to get in on the story now, before it breaks in 2009, you could pocket $60 for every $10 you put down - every year for next five years._


http://www.portphillippublishing.co...ource=e9aaj906&o=1562646&u=27988633&l=1592451


Anyone got any clues?


----------



## alankew (1 October 2008)

TZL maybe?


----------



## edouardo (1 October 2008)

Hi,
I think it must be Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd (CFU)

http://www.cfcl.com.au/

Worth a read and it certainly looks like some action in 2009 with sales ramping up.

Cheers


----------



## eddyeagle (1 October 2008)

Yeah it is definitely CFU. 

Thanks


----------



## shag (17 October 2008)

guys fat profits r cr#p.
like i stupidly subscribed. i could hardly find one company in their portfolio for resources, which they have been so bullish on this sector, that is above its purchase price. even bhp was lower from yesterdays prices compared to their buy in price yrs back. and this is a 'good' one as virtually all the stocks are down 90percent.
they have barely produced reports over the recent crucial times and today i could not see any buy recommendations in the resources report, when often over the last six months when they were all much higher, they had freqquent buys.
this is obviously only my thoughts and should not be seen as advice...


----------



## SenTineL (22 October 2008)

Shag, you have to wake up to yourself mate. 

No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board.

Yes most resources stock are all battered, what do you expect FP to recommend? Sell everything now and realise a huge loss? The reason a lot of analyst will not recommend anything as a buy now is because there's too much uncertainty still out there, value of companies seems to have gone out the window when related to their share price.

If you are a subscriber you would have read that their recommendations and portfolios are meant to be for the long term, not 6 months or shorter. All this should also be taken into account with your own research and justification for the their research and recommendations


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 October 2008)

SenTineL said:


> Shag, you have to wake up to yourself mate.
> 
> No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board....




I'm sorry, I can't resist. I hear the "buy and hold for the long term" phrase so often in the media and from the so-called financial analysts and it's a way to protect themselves in times of downturn. 

It's a defensive phrase for people who don't understand the market - quite simply they only say "invest" 100% of the time and this works in a bull markets (approx 70% of the time). You need to remember who many of these people are - they work for very large global companies who depend on investments/advertising etc so don't expect them to communicate the "s-s-s-sell" message too often.

One thing's for certain, do your own research and have actions in place (eg stop loss), however very few investors do this.

Too-bad if you have retired or about to retire, the second most common phrase from the same media and analysts is:  "it's good for the economy to work for a few more years".


----------



## sinner (26 October 2008)

SenTineL said:


> you have to wake up to yourself mate.




WAKE UP.



> No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board.




Heaps and heaps and heaps of people predicted it. I have a paper trail dating back to 2000 (I like to keep hold of peoples predictions to see who ends up being right). 

The fact is, all the people who envisaged the current situation were laughed out of town for being doomsday prophets. Or ignored. 

I remember trying to convince my cousin (a rediculously well paid Macquarie Group financial consultant) of the dangers of the sub-prime crisis in 2001. She did not even know what I was referring to. When I tried again to explain to her the magnitude of the situation when Bear Sterns hit the floor, she smirked at me like I was an idiot and claimed (oh it's so amusing now) "the entire sub-prime debacle is contained to less than a fifth of the US real estate market" and how could it ever go wrong.

Thanks to google releasing a copy of their search engine from 2001, you can quickly go to see who was predicting this kind of across-the-board-snowball-effect before most people even knew what sub-prime meant.

Here's a good one:
http://web.archive.org/web/20010410165029/www.cagw.org/mediacenter/newsrel/search/00-03-09.htm



> "Our worry is that GSEs could become the savings and loans of the coming decade, with taxpayers getting the bill for a bailout that will make the S&L crisis look like chump change." Citing a report from the American Enterprise Institute, Schatz continued, "If Freddie and Fannie continue their attempts to expand their reach into subprime and jumbo mortgages, there is a real danger of collapse."
> 
> Schatz noted the many similarities between the S&Ls of the 1980s and the current state of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: They rely on home mortgages as their predominant investment. They borrow at government-subsidized rates, shielding them from marketplace competition that enforces sound business practices. Like the S&Ls of the 80s, GSEs are dramatically increasing their debt. GSEs are considered by the market to be "too big to fail," with an implicit government guarantee of their solvency. "Now is the time to avert this crisis, before history repeats itself," Schatz concluded.




Or read Fred L. Smith, Jr.'s "Testimony before the House Banking Committee's Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Securities, and Government Sponsored Enterprises."

Or this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20010211134621/www.investmentrarities.com/thebestofdn2.html



> This acute supply and demand imbalance led to year over year price increases
> of 29% in "wine country" and 34% in the Santa Clara region. Elsewhere, prices
> surged 17% in Orange Country, 19% in Northern California, 21% in the San
> Diego region, and 34% in Monterey. Clearly, this has developed into a
> ...



Or this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20021210073250/http://performancecapital.com/Fannie+Mae.htm



> The Executive Director of our industry association, NHEMA (link found
> in our Resources section) was quoted in today's American Bankers as
> saying "Fannie Mae is expanding its mission into areas where it has
> virtually no experience, and taxpayers should be prepared for a
> ...


----------



## OzWaveGuy (26 October 2008)

sinner said:


> WAKE UP.
> 
> 
> 
> Heaps and heaps and heaps of people predicted it. I have a paper trail dating back to 2000 (I like to keep hold of peoples predictions to see who ends up being right).




Good points Sinner.

Let me add also....In the latest Business Week magazine published on Oct 20th 2008 (pg 36) - there was a relatively small article titled "The watchdogs who saw the Sub-Prime disaster coming-and how they were thwarted by the Banks and Washington"

This article goes into some light detail on how the Banks and the US Gov spurred on inappropriate lending way back in 2003- “Federal Authorities took 50 Sheriffs off the job when the mortgage lending industry was becoming the Wild West” and  “Some states including North Carolina and Georgia, passed laws aimed at deterring rash loans only to have federal authorities undercut them.”

Has anyone ever asked themselves why these very same people who signed off on the recent $900B bailout and are the very same people now standing tall singing the "new order" in the global financial markets tune? Ask yourself who benefits? 

And right on tune - ANZ CEO Mike Smith in Friday's Australian also referred to a "new order" after the coming financial "Armageddon"

The signs have been there for some time, what's now becoming apparent is those responsible for a large proportion of the lending crisis are formulating new plans for a financial system that many will beg to be implemented at some point in the not so distant future - but who will really benefit?


----------



## sinner (26 October 2008)

$900Bn is a real nice number you pulled there OWG 

Referencing this contrarian article from Oct 10

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/aden_oct102008.html



> The bottom line was that in just one week, the Fed spent over $1 trillion to keep things going.




The funny thing is, this line is in reference to the week BEFORE the bailout passed. 

So we can add $>1tr (Lehman/AIG/WaMu/etcetc) + $700-900bn (bailout) + everything they are not telling us about + all the foreign capital (mostly from SE Asia) also involved in the bailout (which Singapore investment group is it that now owns a seriously large chunk of Merryl and Goldman?) to a grand sum of $>2tr in less than a MONTH without even knowing what they actually spent.

Luckily, the credit markets are so completely frozen (ignore LIBOR, it's only useful if banks are actually lending to each other instead of lining up at the please Govt can I have some more window) that such measures will not be shown as the hyper-inflationary triggers they are. 

Once/if that money goes into the real economy (as my economy lecturer father noted last night) via interbank lending or whatever other mechanism, the USDX will go into free-fall and the yen carry trade will unwind overnight. *This. Is. The. Worst. Case. Scenario.*

While I am loathe to quote two goldbug/contrarian articles in the same post, I feel the above statement needs some qualifying, so here you go.

From the "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction" article

http://safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=11502&pv=1



> Japanese investors increased their exposure to overseas assets by 59-trillion yen ($566 billion) last year, to a record 610-trillion yen ($5.9 trillion), making Japan the world's largest creditor nation for the 17th straight year. In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of Japanese yen, in order to buy higher yielding currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




To put it simply, imagine the overnight unwinding of $5.6tr.

Sorry if this is too far off topic.


----------



## SenTineL (29 October 2008)

My question still stands - what would you have FP do in these times?
The reports should be read and do your own research as well, that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines. I didn't buy their every recommendation and I didn't wait for them to tell me to sell.

I shouldn't have used such strong words, as I myself cashed a lot of my high profit shares last Christmas, I've held on to some and weathering the negatives at the moment. SO yes it was forseeable a year ago, just not on the scale that has eventuated IMO.


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## skyQuake (29 October 2008)

At least they could have suggested defensive stocks. Eg In 6 months, Forsters has stayed put while the index has fallen 35% 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FGL.AX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^axjo


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## kagey (11 November 2008)

SenTineL said:


> My question still stands - what would you have FP do in these times?
> The reports should be read and do your own research as well, that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines. I didn't buy their every recommendation and I didn't wait for them to tell me to sell.
> 
> I shouldn't have used such strong words, as I myself cashed a lot of my high profit shares last Christmas, I've held on to some and weathering the negatives at the moment. SO yes it was forseeable a year ago, just not on the scale that has eventuated IMO.




What would I have them do ?
Be honest in their assessments of themselves for a start.    Also, they might recommend when to be light weight in the market.  One day you will realise that you foresaw the market weakness "a year ago", not FP.  So why part with your hard-earned to access poor advice and lack of foresight ?   Do you work for them ?   That is in fact what you do when you pay for a service.   It would be reasonable to get something in return, like what they were selling for instance.


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## chops_a_must (11 November 2008)

SenTineL said:


> Shag, you have to wake up to yourself mate.
> 
> No one could have predicted what a snowball effect this financial crisis was going to have across the board.
> 
> ...



Are they still recommending a buy on VRE?



SenTineL said:


> that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines.



Like Bronzewing and VRE hey? 

lol


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## sutti (14 November 2008)

SenTineL said:


> My question still stands - what would you have FP do in these times?
> The reports should be read and do your own research as well, that's how I have used them and I have picked a few goldmines.




I don't really like it when people say what do you expect them to do? In most situations your paying between $700 - $1000 to get these crappy newsletters that tell you about stocks.

If they're going to charge people that amount they better make it worth while. They can't just shut up shop because the market is falling apart. They should be finding high quality stocks and recommending them for purchase between a specific price according to their estimate at intrinsic value. If they can't do that they should give people their money back. 

That's why I don't like wasting my money on this ****. I subscribe to a few different things that give a good wrap and a bit of commentary on the markets and do my own research on companies. 

If they're charging people a hefty fee, there is no excuse for leaving your clients out in the lurk. And if they think they deserve the high fee, why are they not out there making millions in their own right?


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## inenigma (10 January 2009)

sutti said:


> I don't really like it when people say what do you expect them to do? In most situations your paying between $700 - $1000 to get these crappy newsletters that tell you about stocks.
> 
> If they're going to charge people that amount they better make it worth while. They can't just shut up shop because the market is falling apart. They should be finding high quality stocks and recommending them for purchase between a specific price according to their estimate at intrinsic value. If they can't do that they should give people their money back.
> 
> ...




The one thing that I have to give to FP is that they actually have the balls to publish the CR@P that they do.  Due to a dear friend re-enacting the Parrot skit (unfortunately playing the part of the parrot himself), his widow has given me his Stock IP.  Part of that IP is FP and they are only minor players in ripping off my old mate.  The hefty fee he paid for HomeTrader far outweighs the mere $700 odd dollars he paid for Fat Profits.  At least Fat Profits can be an amusing read at times............

Shall I say that I'm glad that I didn't get ripped off.....


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## SenTineL (11 January 2009)

I think a lot of subscribers have complained.
The last report indicated that in future they will advise members to lock in profits more regularly rather than their hold and hope approach in the past.
Especially in high risk mining companies.

This is where I've been lucky and have picked a few of their stocks followed them up and sold when I was comfortable for a handsome profit, had I held on to these stocks I would be in big trouble with no signs of recovery. Blue chips might recover and go past their previous high, but I doubt this will happen for a lot of the small high risk mining companies which they've recommended.

Good luck to you all


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## Tukker (13 January 2009)

inenigma said:


> ........The hefty fee he paid for HomeTrader far outweighs the mere $700 odd dollars he paid for Fat Profits.  At least Fat Profits can be an amusing read at times............
> 
> Shall I say that I'm glad that I didn't get ripped off.....




Yet some of us have earned alot more than we payed for HT education. Sorry about your friend's experience.  *Home Trader Schooled*


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## craig_oneill (24 February 2009)

Hey does anyone know if FP is still plugging Salinas??? They were one of their most recommened stocks at one stage, are they better value now???


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## eddyeagle (26 February 2009)

Hi Craig, 

Obviously the oil price has plummeted and thus FP are not plugging oil stocks like they were doing 12 months ago. 

They havent covered Salinas since November but it remains in their portfolio.


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## lsj84 (28 February 2009)

In the recent email FP says:

3 Super Sized Gold Stocks 

Here are our 3 favourite large gold stocks... 

Super Sized Gold Stock #1 

This company has just broken a number of production records, with annual gold production up 26%* on last year. 

It has a key advantage over other miners as it saves tens of millions of dollars by generating its own energy through geothermal power stations. It allows them to remain at the lower end of the industry cost curve. 

The company is targeting production of more than 1 million ounces of gold through the year to December 2009. Finally, and critically, the company held approximately $64 million of cash on hand and no debt at the end of 2008. 

With the gold price set to soar, all the pieces are in place for this large gold miner to benefit in 2009 and beyond. 

Super Sized Gold Stock #2 

This company just announced a $500 million capital raising. So overwhelming was demand from investors, keen to invest in the company that they upped their raising to $750 million. 

In such a jittery market, this alone is quite remarkable. The company was not in any financial difficulty or under pressure from investors to pay down debt. It has raised the funds to accelerate its growth opportunities. 

Remember that word? Growth? Yep - some companies, particularly in the gold sector, are still growing. We expect this huge Aussie gold miner to power higher in the very near future. 

Super Sized Gold Stock #3 

This is one of the world's largest unhedged gold producers, and we think it should begin to attract serious attention from investors in the years ahead. 

The company has underperformed over the past few years as declining production and rising costs have eaten into profitability. However, these trends will be reversed this year and with the expectation of a robust gold price, this huge gold producer should return to focus. 

One Big Gold Explorer Available At A Small Price 

We asked our resident Fat Prophets Mining & Resources analyst for his very favourite smaller gold stock. Without hesitation, he highlighted this company... 


This gold explorer is sitting on what we think will be an eventual +5 million ounce gold camp.

It's projected annual gold production is up to 350,000 ounces per year at an expected very low average cash operating cost of just US$198 per ounce (after by-product silver credits), making it one of the lowest-cost undeveloped gold deposits in the world.
The potential for this company has seemingly not gone unnoticed, with its share price already soaring a massive 174%* since its November 2008 bottom. 

Yet if you were thinking you might have already missed the boat, think again. 

Think... 


Global stimulus packages.

Plunging interest rates.

Wall of money.

Rising inflation.

Warren Buffett.

Rising gold price.

Takeover potential.

One of the lowest-cost undeveloped gold deposits in the world.
Finally, to put the size of the gold resource this company is sitting on into perspective, a chart recently produced by the company showed that between 1999 and 2006, there have been a grand total of only 24 one-million plus ounce gold discoveries. 

With gold so scarce, and inflation set to rise in the years ahead, no wonder the price of gold is near record highs, and we think is headed significantly higher. 


Anyone got any clue? is SBM the Super Sized Gold Stock #2 ?


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## GumbyLearner (1 March 2009)

lsj84 said:


> In the recent email FP says:
> 
> 3 Super Sized Gold Stocks
> 
> ...




#1 LGL
#2 NCM
and
#3  :dunno:Could be NEM??(Check with the resident gurus Kennas or explod)


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## ormond (1 March 2009)

lsj84 said:


> In the recent email FP says:
> 
> 
> One Big Gold Explorer Available At A Small Price
> ...


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## Miner (1 March 2009)

I often wonder with such a great mind and analysts why the shareholders of Fat Prophets failing to reap the benefits 

Is it because who can not they teach ?

Personally I distance myself away from Fat Products recommendation as far as I can


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## shag (5 March 2009)

Miner said:


> I often wonder with such a great mind and analysts why the shareholders of Fat Prophets failing to reap the benefits
> 
> Is it because who can not they teach ?
> 
> Personally I distance myself away from Fat Products recommendation as far as I can




i agree, the dirty f-kers are constantly emailing their clients(read dumb suckers ie me) to try to get u to load up on even more of their expensive packages.
its been a constant bombardment of 'fantastic' deals since late last year.
by their webpage too, they all look like kids just out of school who want to make a quick buck and have never seen a bear market.

quick sign up guys, they need extra dosh to pay for the bmw hire most likely.


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## freebird54 (10 March 2009)

I subscribe to them and many others

 their failing is not using stop losses


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## Ghetto23 (20 March 2009)

Anyone know this one?

We think this South American gold miner has been completely overlooked and ignored by the market. 
In such unprecedented times, when equities are on the nose and cash is king, it's not really surprising that many stocks have been hung out to dry. To be honest, many deserve the share price hammering they've received, because they've been proven to have questionable assets and sometimes even more questionable management. 
Yet in the case of this South American gold miner, the facts versus the current share price seem to completely defy logic. 
The company's share price is just 19 cents and the whole company is valued by the stock market at just $28m. As most investors know, buying small and unloved companies can be a great way to significantly increase your wealth.
In a very recent update to the market, the company said it expects its net profit after tax for 2009 to be in the range of $7m to $13m. 
That places this profitable gold producer on a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of between just 4 and 2.
On top of that, the company has some attractive exploration assets, and one in particular in Peru is described by the company as "most encouraging".


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## JMcDog (20 March 2009)

It's MUN although the SP has recently appreciated to 26c+

Cheers, JM


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## Ghetto23 (24 March 2009)

Thanks JM - up to 31c today...


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## shag (7 April 2009)

freebird54 said:


> I subscribe to them and many others
> 
> their failing is not using stop losses




yes i agree, they basically ignored this point and blamed the demise of their whole portfolio as being typical of other portfolio falls.
they kept predicting a massive rise late last year.
it seems none of them experienced the 87 crash either.
a lot of the script that they own is only good as bog paper.


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

shag said:


> yes i agree, they basically ignored this point and blamed the demise of their whole portfolio as being typical of other portfolio falls.
> they kept predicting a massive rise late last year.
> it seems none of them experienced the 87 crash either.
> a lot of the script that they own is only good as bog paper.




You will find that nearly all of these newsletter type things are a waste of money and time. Learn how to do your own research and you will be on your way. The only thing I subscribe to now is Marc Faber's monthly market commentaries. They're very good, usually about 15 - 20 pages long at US$200 a year. 

 wonder.


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## stock nub (16 April 2009)

Anyone have an idea which csg play they are spruiking in the most recent email?


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## phong_01 (16 April 2009)

It's AOE.  You can check it out from the today Financial Review.  It's considered as one of the first coal seam gas producer.


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## phong_01 (16 April 2009)

However I haven't got the answer for winner #2? Does anyone have any idea who the winner #2 is?


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## bobyyy1 (18 April 2009)

Any ideas for winner #2?


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## freebird54 (18 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> You will find that nearly all of these newsletter type things are a waste of money and time. Learn how to do your own research and you will be on your way. The only thing I subscribe to now is Marc Faber's monthly market commentaries. They're very good, usually about 15 - 20 pages long at US$200 a year.
> 
> wonder.




15-20 pages!!! - I like Eureka but find that is a lot to read because of the frequency.
Rivkin is only 2 pages with maybe 1 update a week - he is good on covered calls now - about time we did more options due to high premiums around now


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## stock nub (18 April 2009)

number two is carnarvon petroleum ticker code: cvn. pretty solid little oil company lots of cash flow, good bank balance and no debt!


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## freebird54 (3 July 2009)

I have dropped FP and am testing a couple of others

Rivkin is brilliant lately on capital raisings/rights issues - got them all right and before most others - I am running out of capital now!!

I reckon its worth putting 500 in anything you think may have a raising soon as they dont give you long to get in

I just did MLE and MCC


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