# The Decline of the US Dollar



## wayneL (6 August 2007)

*The Death of the Dollar*

Slipping under 80c after Cramer's pleading to the Fed. Do traders believe the Fed is that stupid?

They must do... and maybe they (the Fed) are stupid enough.

Live USD Index Chart here http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...tUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=&x=22&y=14


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## Kimosabi (6 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Slipping under 80c after Cramer's pleading to the Fed. Do traders believe the Fed is that stupid?
> 
> They must do... and maybe they (the Fed) are stupid enough.
> 
> Live USD Index Chart here http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...tUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=&x=22&y=14




The Fed isn't stupid, they know exactly what they are doing...


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## wayneL (8 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Today the USD received a direct death threat... from China.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...BQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml



> China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
> 
> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
> Last Updated: 6:00pm BST 07/08/2007
> ...


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## theasxgorilla (8 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

When I read about the China (reserves) / US (IOUs plus a consumption habit) situation it almost seems as though China has used the collective mentality of  the US against itself.   Like the cliche of the cunning talent manager deceptively taking advantage of the pop/movie star...using their penchant for good times (weakness) against them...a taste of success, promises, contracts signed,  drugs, parties, habit, bigger contracts signed, forced to tour incessantly...self-destruction??  Years later the star ends up in rehab...the manager is long gone... busy off being retired somewhere.


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## explod (8 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Slipping under 80c after Cramer's pleading to the Fed. Do traders believe the Fed is that stupid?
> 
> They must do... and maybe they (the Fed) are stupid enough.
> 
> Live USD Index Chart here http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...tUi.bardensity=LOW&chartUi.overlay=&x=22&y=14




This should be a star thread.  Bit early in the morning for me to think about it but the US dollar has been the worlds reserve currency and its demise is going to have huge consquences.   As Rome burned (can't remember his name) their leader fiddled.   Sound familiar.   Except that ordinary Americans, and many of us in the developed worlds are facing a bad period of poverty.   Will qualify later.

Ah.................... Neru was the Roman Emporer I think


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## Sean K (8 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Buying gold, or gold equities?

Or, is there something better if the USD does completely collapse? Or, has it already?


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## explod (8 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> Buying gold, or gold equities?
> 
> Or, is there something better if the USD does completely collapse? Or, has it already?




Word out of "The Street" (Chuck Butler, EverBank) to US investors is buy Krona (sic) Euros, Aussie or NZ currencies,  gold EFT's or the physical stuff. 

Interesting that gold and silver rose in late US trading with the US dollar, that is a bullish move and probably indicates a rout on the dollar due to Benarke keeping interest rates on hold.  His support statement when released will be interesting


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## Pommiegranite (8 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*




kennas said:


> Buying gold, or gold equities?
> 
> Or, is there something better if the USD does completely collapse? Or, has it already?




Invest in giffen goods/giffen good producers: 

Rice and Noodles in China
Potatoes in the west
Hay - as we will require more horses for transport

Ps...Explod...'Nehru' was the first PM of India. I think you mean 'Nero'. Nero was fames for being mad. Remind you of another leader?


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## ZzzzDad (9 August 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Today the USD received a direct death threat... from China.
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...BQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml




This threat is just bluster from China.  China and America need each other, are intertwined with each other.  For China to do this, it would be harming its biggest market.  Putting America into recession would cause the loss of millions of jobs in China, as well as the U.S.  They know this, just muscle flexing imo.  In fact, China would lose much more if they follow through with this.  America would seek to diversify into other third world countries to produce its products.


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## explod (9 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Dollar Falls to Lowest in a Month Versus Euro Amid Job Losses 

By Bo Nielsen

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to the lowest in a month against the euro on concern the worst housing slump in 16 years and a credit market rout may push the U.S. into a recession. 

The U.S. currency declined for a second week versus the yen after a government report yesterday showed the economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month for the first time since 2003. Interest-rate futures show traders are unanimous in betting the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs at least a quarter- percentage point to 5 percent on Sept. 18. Data next week is forecast to show retail sales growth accelerated in August. 

``The downside risks to the economy have magnified, and a 25-basis-point cut is pretty much a lock,'' said Jay Bryson, global economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``If retail sales come in really weak, people in the market are going to say'' the consumer is reducing spending. 

The dollar fell 1 percent to $1.3768 per euro in the week. The U.S. currency declined 2.1 percent to 113.38 yen. Japan's yen gained versus the 16 most-active currencies during the week. 

Retail sales increased 0.5 percent last month, according to the median estimate of 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Sales rose 0.3 percent in July. The August data will be released on Sept. 14. 

``If the bad housing sector and market turmoil are now causing damage to business confidence, then the U.S. economy is in trouble,'' said Robert Robis, an international fixed income portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds Inc. in New York, which oversees $250 billion. ``And so is the dollar.'' 

Dollar Index 

The U.S. dollar index comparing the currency with its six primary peers fell to as low as 79.841 yesterday, the weakest in 15 years, from 80.791 on Aug. 31. 

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 4,000 in August from a revised gain of 68,000 a month earlier, the Labor Department in Washington said. It compared with the median forecast of a 100,000 increase in a Bloomberg News survey of 88 economists. The unemployment rate held at 4.6 percent. 

Central banks from the U.K., the 13-country euro region, Canada, Australia and South Korea kept interest rates unchanged during the week as they assessed how the credit squeeze will affect economic growth. 

Interest-Rate Futures 

Interest-rate futures show a 76 percent chance the Fed will cut borrowing costs to 4.75 percent from 5.25 percent at its Sept. 18 meeting, up from 46 percent on Aug. 31. 

The difference in yields between two-year U.S. Treasuries and comparable-maturity German bunds fell 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, during the week and turned negative for the first time since 2004. 

The three-month rate banks charge each other for dollars rose to 5.73 percent from 5.62 percent on Aug. 31 as financial institutions were reluctant to lend. 

The yen gained 1 percent versus the euro, 1 percent versus the Australian currency and 3.6 percent versus the New Zealand dollar during the week as investors repaid loans in Japan used to fund the purchase of higher-yielding assets such as stocks. 

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 1.4 percent during the week. 

Japan's 0.5 percent target lending rate is the lowest among industrialized nations and compares with 8.25 percent in New Zealand and 6.5 percent in Australia. 

The Swedish krona rose 1.4 percent versus the dollar during the week, the biggest gain in two months, as the Riksbank yesterday increased borrowing costs a quarter-percentage point to 3.75 percent. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Bo Nielsen in New York at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: September 8, 2007 09:14 EDT


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## chops_a_must (19 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

The USD just took an absolute bath by the looks.

Looks like gold and oil joining in as well. Despite the hype I can't see the move as healthy.

Glad to be long Gold here.


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## wayneL (19 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



chops_a_must said:


> The USD just took an absolute bath by the looks.
> 
> Looks like gold and oil joining in as well. Despite the hype I can't see the move as healthy.
> 
> Glad to be long Gold here.



Although this just gave me a nice boost in equity too, I'm sure this will turn out to be a very bad decision.

Moral Hazard


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## theasxgorilla (19 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Think Paul Hogan in Crocodile Dundee in the mugging scene with the hunting knife...only sub in action figure Ben Bernake with his helicopter.







"You call that a helicopter drop? This is a helicopter drop!"


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## tayser (19 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

^ lol.


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## chops_a_must (20 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

The USD in capitulation mode again. Finally below 79 on the dollar index. Gold on another run. All in all, continues to look very bad.


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## Smurf1976 (20 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

No, no, no... This can't be right! 

Those with their heads in the sand are still talking about US$20 oil.

Maybe they meant $20 per gallon not per barrel... :


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## wayneL (20 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Smurf1976 said:


> No, no, no... This can't be right!
> 
> Those with their heads in the sand are still talking about US$20 oil.
> 
> Maybe they meant $20 per gallon not per barrel... :




Ehh????

Who's coming up with that rubbish? Link?


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## Smurf1976 (20 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Ehh????
> 
> Who's coming up with that rubbish? Link?



Go and talk to just about any professional funds manager and for that matter quite a few oil companies too. Very few (if any?) are basing any sort of credible economic forecasting on the basis that USD oil prices don't come down but instead continue to rise for years to come.

They might be in the 30's or 40's now, but most of the industry still seems to think that a project must be viable at $20 - $30 or don't bother with it. Just look at how they are evaluating their field developments - not too many are rushing to develop fields which are break even at $60. 

The entire notion of a sustained run up in commodity prices / fall in USD hasn't really sunk in too far yet. 

In much the same way very few Australians would have heard anyone saying that interest rates were headed up, up, up and up again once they started to rise. And yet that's exactly what's happened.

This is, of course, exactly what's supposed to happen in the early stages of a major bull market. Most don't believe and expect a correction to bring new lows.


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## numbercruncher (20 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



> In March 2005, Goldman shocked the world with its prediction that oil was headed for $105 per barrel, sending the prices of oil stocks surging. But how high did oil go? It briefly topped $70 a barrel in the summer, but spent most of its time in the $60s. The following year, oil prices again took a leap, but fell short of $80, and spent most of their time in the $70s. They're pushing an $80 price level this year, of course. But as you'll recall, oil prices through most of 2007 were less than what they were last year.
> 
> It's not just Goldman that got it wrong, either. Anybody remember Lord Browne, the BP CEO who in June 2006 predicted "oil prices will range in the medium term around an average of $40, and in the long run it could even be $25 to $30." Where Goldman got it wrong on the upside, BP fumbled the low ball.
> 
> ...





http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2007/09/18/on-goldman-and-black-gold.aspx

Fair article on the subject of oil prices i guess!

I think it will all depend on how weak the USD gets in relation to other currencys.


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## rederob (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



numbercruncher said:


> http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2007/09/18/on-goldman-and-black-gold.aspx
> 
> Fair article on the subject of oil prices i guess!
> 
> I think it will all depend on how weak the USD gets in relation to other currencys.



I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
However, if I am wrong, it will more likely be that oil will no longer be denominated in the debased US dollar, than any other factor.
Tonight the euro was costing over $1.40 for the first time.
The euro looks more and more stable against the greenback, and Central Banks will be looking for greater certainty of "value" than is now offered by the USD.
I don't know how the guard gets changed, but for the time being the Americans are looking somewhat naked, and getting cast out in the cold.
We need to listen out for that sneeze - it's surely acoming.


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## wayneL (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



rederob said:


> I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
> Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
> Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
> Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
> ...



Incredible, but true.

The latest interest rate decision implies that they don't even care about the dollar. They could have gotten away with a .25 % cut and apart from short term liquidity and sentiment issues, .5% will not help them.

I think the yanks are losing control. I wish I could live another hundred years, because it will sure be interesting if they survive as the No. 1 economic superpower.


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## chops_a_must (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



rederob said:


> I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
> Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
> Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
> Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
> ...



Hard to disagree with oil above $100. Just to get to its inflation adjusted all time price it needs to be over 100 for starters. So the market has never even factored in peak oil. And well... we saw what happened at the point of realisation when peak oil was reached for the US in the 70s.

By the way, the US open couldn't stop gold and the USD tonight:


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## Sean K (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> I think the yanks are losing control. I wish I could live another hundred years, because it will sure be interesting if they survive as the No. 1 economic superpower.



I don't think we'll have to live another 100 years Wayne. I think we'll see the transition in our life time. 

Well, those of us under 50 anyway.


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## wayneL (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> I don't think we'll have to live another 100 years Wayne. I think we'll see the transition in our life time.
> 
> Well, those of us under 50 anyway.



I'm just trying to decide whether to learn Urdu or Mandarin.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> I'm just trying to decide whether to learn Urdu or Mandarin.




English will be fine. More Chinese speak it than Americans. Koreans have better vocabulary than most natives. The Japanese can only read it, terrible speakers(communicators). Indians speak English. The reality is languages such as Chinese and Urdu etc are not practical to learn nor use. English is far easier than many languages and will continue as the main language. Spanish, French, German are satellite languages of influence and are easier to learn. Having a common script helps.

私の意見です。どちらが一番簡単ですか。(My opinon. Which is the easiest?)
As you can see roman script is easier, though I can read the above and wrote it to highlight it's difficulty.


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## wayneL (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> English will be fine. More Chinese speak it than Americans. Koreans have better vocabulary than most natives. The Japanese can only read it, terrible speakers(communicators). Indians speak English. The reality is languages such as Chinese and Urdu etc are not practical to learn nor use. English is far easier than many languages and will continue as the main language. Spanish, French, German are satellite languages of influence and are easier to learn. Having a common script helps.



Well, I speak (very bad) German, and know all the swear words in French, Spanish and Greek. So I guess I'll struggle by OK.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Well, I speak (very bad) German, and know all the swear words in French, Spanish and Greek. So I guess I'll struggle by OK.




Das ist gut!


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## dhukka (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



rederob said:


> I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
> Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
> Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
> Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
> ...




Saw a guy on bubble-vision the other day predciting that Oil prices will spike in the short term (ie. this year) but come down next year as a greater supply of feedstock for alternative fuels comes online. I think the numbers at the moment were that alternative fuels account for *4 1/2%* of fuel sources in the US but will jump to *9%* by the end of next year putting a cap on oil demand.

Don't know if I buy the alternative fuels riding to the rescue story just yet. Problem there is of course that feedstock prices have also jumped making the inputs in the process for alternative fuels much more expensive. Natural Fuels (ASX.NFL) has suffered because of this - possibly the worst IPO in the last year? listed at $1.50 and now sitting at $0.275.  

But I digress, in the short term a weak $USD means higher prices at the pump. The last thing that struggling US consumers need right now.


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## KIWIKARLOS (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

In regards to the cost and availability of oil i dont think most people realise how dependant we are on the stuff. When the cost of oil increases its not just petrol prices that go up.

Oil is used as the main component of plastics which makes up alot of our "cheap" consumables. Not to mention that fertilizers based from oil make up a huge part of the agricultural industry.

So the cost of growing the food, packaging the food and then moving it to woolies all goes up :

The US dollar is cactus now the aussie dollar is going strong and correct me if im wrong has even outperformed against the euro lately. Who knows maybe the AUS dollar will become the worlds new reserve currency. We'll have to start making our coins from Iron and uranium


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## KIWIKARLOS (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Hey Dhukka in regards to bio fuels etc. With the cost of food "wheat esp" and oil based fertilisers increasing the bios will prob become just as if not more expensive in future


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## Aussiejeff (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> I don't think we'll have to live another 100 years Wayne. I think we'll see the transition in our life time.
> 
> Well, those of us under 50 anyway.




Drat! I'm 56 so that counts me out 

Have fun then, young'uns 

AJ

PS: I heard today that the Canadian "Loonie" is now past parity with the Yankee "Doler". Go the Mounties & Lumberjacks!!


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## Sean K (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Aussiejeff said:


> Drat! I'm 56 so that counts me out



You might scrape in Jeff.  LOL


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## dhukka (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



KIWIKARLOS said:


> Hey Dhukka in regards to bio fuels etc. With the cost of food "wheat esp" and oil based fertilisers increasing the bios will prob become just as if not more expensive in future




Yeah my point exactly, the commodity I was thinking of was corn which rose another *3%* in Chicago overnight.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Alternative fuels from wheat etc have been investigated at length by the US. Expect more in the future on this topic. Oil will be a thing of the past.


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## KIWIKARLOS (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

i dont believe in bio fuels they aren't the best solution to the problem and in my opinion will only cause more problems.

For starters its a huge waste of food to be growing crops for fuel use and will increase the price of basic food stocks.

The environment will suffer greatly, imagine how much forest has to be cleared to cater for the amount of crops required to grow fuel for the us let alone the world. Land degradation and erosion will increase not to mention biodiversity will plummet.

Water is already a scarse resource and growing fuel crops will only use more of it and start competing with drinking water.

I believe efficiency is the main way we can reduce our fuel use right now then followed with different forms of fossile fuel such as gas and Hythane. Hythane is a natural stepping stone toward hydrogen based transport. 

Fact is that climate change is not as big an issue as environmental destruction when it comes to preserving species and protecting the world. I think we would be better off saving the rainforest from clearing and burning all our coal than cutting down the forest to save some co2 emissions. We will end up with low co2 levels but no natural environment left anyways and extinctions will still happen on large scales.


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## chops_a_must (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



dhukka said:


> Yeah my point exactly, the commodity I was thinking of was corn which rose another *3%* in Chicago overnight.




Yeah, before the latest food price hike, from what I've read biofuels were only break even at about US $70 a barrel. That's why it couldn't stay below there. Hell knows what the break even price is now. I think the yanks just have to accept >$70 oil... and probably more... until it's gone I'd say.


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## KIWIKARLOS (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Also oil may be running out but coal can be converted into diesel fuel and Wyoming has enough coal to produce diesel for 100 years for US supply. The drawback is ecological, they would have to dig up huge amounts of land plus the old co2 thing.

Anyone seen the doco "the great global warming farce"? bit off topic:


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## >Apocalypto< (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

I am backing up Wavepickers comments about the US$ not dying but quite the oppersite it could make a dramatic come back in the near future. we could be talking 1-3 years here not 6 months! (Chops)

Have a look at the chart below the US$ is in a creeping trend now.

Notice a pattern is now starting to form, a downwards pointing diagonal which is still in formation not 100% complete by any means. but's its there normally this pattern has bullish ramification's. So I for one am not leaning on the side of the US$ is dead I am starting to think its in early stages of accumulation.

See Chart:


Good trading


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## chops_a_must (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Trade_It said:


> I am backing up Wavepickers comments about the US$ not dying but quite the oppersite it could make a dramatic come back in the near future. we could be talking 1-3 years here not 6 months! (Chops)




Why would anyone choose not to take a trade in the meantime because of something that might happen in six months time?

I'll be looking for a capitulation that's quickly recovered before I'll believe there is a change in trend. Given the pressure on it, a capitulation is probably needed.

The other dollar index chart probably looks more bearish...


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## rederob (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Trade_It said:


> I am backing up Wavepickers comments about the US$ not dying but quite the oppersite it could make a dramatic come back in the near future. we could be talking 1-3 years here not 6 months! (Chops)
> 
> Have a look at the chart below the US$ is in a creeping trend now.
> 
> ...



Dead cats bounce.
I expect the greenback has as many lives as a cat.
Wayne, can you please count the "bounces" so far - tell us when we get to 9.
Cheers


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## >Apocalypto< (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

guys believe what u want, 

I am just showing and supporting evidence that is there. I see it as not very bearish you see it as bearish. that's the fun of trading.


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## dhukka (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



KIWIKARLOS said:


> i dont believe in bio fuels they aren't the best solution to the problem and in my opinion will only cause more problems.
> 
> For starters its a huge waste of food to be growing crops for fuel use and will increase the price of basic food stocks.
> 
> ...




Without trying to turn this into a thread about bio-fuels. I remember around twelve months ago one of the Aussie TV networks ran a story on 'peak oil.' It centred around a politician in Northern Queensland who was advocating the Queensland government make massive investments in public transport rather than the current policy of building more roads. 

His saw this as urgent as oil production was set to peak at the end of this decade. He also claimed that if all the sugar-cane in Australia was used to produce ethanol for alternative fuels it would only be enough for 1 litre of petrol, per car, per week. This is all from memory so apologies in advance if I got some of that info wrong. 

The peak oil debate seems to have died down a bit but I suspect it will rear it's head again given where oil is at the moment.


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## >Apocalypto< (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



chops_a_must said:


> Why would anyone choose not to take a trade in the meantime because of something that might happen in six months time?
> 
> I'll be looking for a capitulation that's quickly recovered before I'll believe there is a change in trend. Given the pressure on it, a capitulation is probably needed.
> 
> The other dollar index chart probably looks more bearish...




Chops,

when and how u trade is up to u, I have read your more on the intrady side of things now.

Evidence i am puting forward is that the Bear market in the US$ looks to be slowing.

that is a weekly chart chops it is the US$ its its life for many years, lol ofcorse a daily and a 4 hour look more bearish there was a rate cut it got smashed lol

daily and lesser time frames are not the bigger picture of that market, but if u trade on micro time frames then weekly monthly charts would mean nothing to your trades.

but that weekly chart has a lot to do with this tread of the US$ being dead, from what the chart show's its not that dead at all *right now.*

but I may be wrong and it tanks, as of right now I don't think it will.

Mark Fabber is another that thinks the US$ is also on the recovery trail but I prefer to listern to what a chart tells.


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## Uncle Festivus (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Trade_It said:


> Mark Fabber is another that thinks the US$ is also on the recovery trail but I prefer to listern to what a chart tells.




That would be a major reversal of opinion by him - do you have a link for this info?
UF


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## >Apocalypto< (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Uncle Festivus said:


> That would be a major reversal of opinion by him - do you have a link for this info?
> UF




watched him say it on a video UF,

I am trying to find it, was very recent just around the sell off. I will try to find it and get back to u


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## chops_a_must (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Trade_It said:


> Chops,
> 
> 
> that is a weekly chart chops it is the US$ its its life for many years, lol ofcorse a daily and a 4 hour look more bearish there was a rate cut it got smashed lol
> ...




No, what I meant was the the broader dollar index (in comparison to 30 currencies) rather than this one, (6 from memory) does not look nearly so good...


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## dhukka (21 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Uncle Festivus said:


> That would be a major reversal of opinion by him - do you have a link for this info?
> UF




Marc Faber Interview

Click on the link above and scroll down to the 4th story and click on play. Faber says that he says the $US dollar going the same way as Zimbabwe but he says in the short term the $US may strengthen. He sees any strengthening of the $US dollar as an opportunity to buy gold.


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## Uncle Festivus (22 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



dhukka said:


> Marc Faber Interview
> 
> Click on the link above and scroll down to the 4th story and click on play. Faber says that he says the $US dollar going the same way as Zimbabwe but he says in the short term the $US may strengthen. He sees any strengthening of the $US dollar as an opportunity to buy gold.




Thanks,
Marc Faber will be on 
*ABC Inside Business*

 10:00am Sunday, 23 Sep 2007 

*Also showing on ABC2*
 - 7:30am Monday, September 24

Another regular commentary site - 
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Dr__Marc_Faber/


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## barrett (22 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Great!  Thanks for the tip.

This isn't really a reversal for him, he's been saying for a while that the US dollar is the most out of favour asset in the world.

His main holdings for 2007 were gold, cash and farmland.  Farmland has been going through the roof.. and the cash might yet come in handy.  My portfolio has been similar but no farmland.

 here is an interesting quote from truecontrarian.com:

"Historically, whenever the Fed begins to cut interest rates, it is usually the case that the U.S. dollar rises over the next several months, and sometimes for more than a year.  The most obvious recent example was in 2000-2001, when the beginning of Fed rate-cut action led to a rising greenback throughout the remainder of 2000 and all the way through July 2001.  Going back to the beginning of 1972, when the U.S. dollar first began to be publicly traded against other world currencies, the pattern of a rising dollar following the first Fed rate cut holds true approximately 80% of the time."


----------



## dhukka (25 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Interesting interview with Jim Rogers on commodities and the dollar. Click on the link and scroll down to the 6th story to see the interview.


----------



## chops_a_must (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

So much for that USD rally... Getting another capitulation tonight.


----------



## explod (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



chops_a_must said:


> So much for that USD rally... Getting another capitulation tonight.




It is a sorry state of affairs for the ordinary hard working people of the US and the demise unfolding now will have bad implications for us all.  GWB has sold out the US to the multinational capitalists.   

There will also be huge economic tensions as the dollars (now reads debt) held in large part by China will not be repaid at any where near value.

Yep gold will rise but I almost feel as a grim reaper profiting from what will be great misery to many others


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Just imagine if the treasonous b@stards cut again.


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Just imagine if the treasonous b@stards cut again.



Isn't this inevitable now? I'm cashing in my managed funds with direct US exposure next week.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> Isn't this inevitable now? I'm cashing in my managed funds with direct US exposure next week.



Incredibly, there is expectations of further cuts, even as evidence of inflation mounts.

This could be what the market is pricing in now. 

I would be stunned if they did, but I'm spending most of my time in a stunned condition lately.


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Incredibly, there is expectations of further cuts, even as evidence of inflation mounts.
> 
> This could be what the market is pricing in now.
> 
> I would be stunned if they did, but I'm spending most of my time in a stunned condition lately.



Yes, you bears would be shocked with the recovery! : I think it has everyone in a daze. 

What's the story??!!??

Have the markets got it completely wrong?
Is it becasue it's not that bad?
Is it because humans are more gready than fearful?

Whatever the case, the bears calling a start to the end 2 months ago (as far as stock markets go) have got it wrong perhaps.

Or, is the stock market totally out of touch with reality? I can't see that. Isn't it a measure of all things?


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> Yes, you bears would be shocked with the recovery! : I think it has everyone in a daze.
> 
> What's the story??!!??
> 
> ...



The SM is not a good indicator of the health of the economy. It is only a good indicator of prevailing sentiment. So for that purpose it can be discounted.

The rally is no surprise; equity investors are obsessed with interest rate, almost to the exclusion of all other fundamentals (in the broad market sense). A cut of that magnitude was a guarantee of a rally.

However, if we look past the share market, the underlying economy is deteriorating (This is the reason The Fed thought it necessary to cut). The goings on are just behind closed doors now, so-as not to spook the punters.

The bears have not got it wrong, but the SM will do what it will. Bear in mind that the ASX is a resources dominated market. As resources go, so does the ASX. This is why it is performing strongly... take a look at metals/oil.

But the US and European markets are far more tentative, even with the rate cut. Reason - bodies will start floating to the surface sooner or later. Heck, even Goldman Sachs has joined the bear camp (on the quiet of course). 

Even so Oz will probably outperform in the next 12 months, after that, all bets are off.


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> The SM is not a good indicator of the health of the economy. It is *only a good indicator of prevailing sentiment*. So for that purpose it can be discounted.



 Is this your own strawman Wayne? 



wayneL said:


> The rally is no surprise; equity investors are obsessed with interest rate, almost to the exclusion of all other fundamentals (in the broad market sense). A cut of that magnitude was a guarantee of a rally.



Yes, I agree, so does interest rates drive the SM entirely? If so, and we invest in the SM, shouldn't we be betting on this? I actually don't think they do, as you have recognised, so if the 'other factors' are so poor, why the rally? Must be because at this time all the market wants is cheaper money? Greed is good? 



wayneL said:


> However, if we look past the share market, the underlying economy is deteriorating (This is the reason The Fed thought it necessary to cut). The goings on are just behind closed doors now, so-as not to spook the punters.



 Since the 'intelligent' masses understand this, why are 'we' pumping our hard earned dollars into a beast destined to capitulate? Greed is good?



wayneL said:


> The bears have not got it wrong, but the SM will do what it will. Bear in mind that the ASX is a resources dominated market. As resources go, so does the ASX. This is why it is performing strongly... take a look at metals/oil.



How can the bears not have it wrong at the present moment, when the MASSES are investing their money into the SM? (unless your strawman is correct) Is it just that the bears are the smart  ones? But if they are the smart ones, why have they (potentially) missed out on record share prices across particular sectors? (not saying some bears haven't taken advantage of this, just speaking generally) 



wayneL said:


> But the US and European markets are far more tentative, even with the rate cut. Reason - bodies will start floating to the surface sooner or later. Heck, even Goldman Sachs has joined the bear camp (on the quiet of course).



 Agreed, but aren't most people on this forum investing in the aussie market which is pumping? You are assuming a direct flow on to the Aussie market (which I anticipate) but it has not come to fruition? As you suggest - resources...?? 



wayneL said:


> Even so Oz will probably outperform in the next 12 months, after that, all bets are off.



 Maybe but perhaps the US will get out of recession by then and the bull will kick up another gear? 


When I started posting on this forum my avatar was a bear. It's my nature, and I will ALWAYS look to the downside before making a decision. However, after being a bear for so long, I've probably missed on quite a few opportunities.

Where's the answer? 

Maybe somewhere in the middle?


----------



## wavepicker (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Bull or bear who cares?

When the market goes up we should be bulls and when it goes down we should be bears. Get rid of the the biases and trade the market both ways.

The market is there for only one thing, to make money from, that is all it's good for.  Who cares whether it goes up or down? Who cares about the economy? The only economy that is important is OUR personal economy!
Look at it as objectively as possible, trade it both ways and let go of the biases. You will be a better off.


----------



## wavepicker (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> I agree, but this is a 'traders' perspective, not a long term lay person investors game.
> 
> Most people on this forum are part time investors who are 'buy and hold', or bull market investors. Most do not day trade, or even short sell.
> 
> ...




That' fair enough, depends on ones approach/goals.
If one is a buy and holder, they are forever a bull and need to have the patience to ride out all the pot holes along the way or at least he some type of hedge.

Having said that, given that this has been such a strong bull over the last 4 years, most are expecting to see a continuation of the same, and any deviation from this can hit them very hard psychologically if they are not prepared for it.

This is very evident here on this forum every time we have a correction by the types of posts that are made. You can see the emotion in the posts.  I hate see what it will be like when we get a lower high or a deeper correction.


----------



## Sean K (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> That' fair enough, depends on ones approach/goals.
> If one is a buy and holder, they are forever a bull and need to have the patience to ride out all the pot holes along the way or at least he some type of hedge.
> 
> Having said that, given that this has been such a strong bull over the last 4 years, most are expecting to see a continuation of the same, and any deviation from this can hit them very hard psychologically if they are not prepared for it.
> ...



Yes, absolutely, I agree. When we get into a sustained sideways/downward trend (which is inevitable for some period) then many people are going to feel some pain. As those who have been 'long term investors' over the past 20 years have experienced at some time. 

Might depend on if you are a professional investor or not, and need to make an income every month/year. 

However, if the uber bears have it right, and the US entirely implodes, then there will be more damage to the long term investors......


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



dhukka said:


> Without trying to turn this into a thread about bio-fuels. I remember around twelve months ago one of the Aussie TV networks ran a story on 'peak oil.' It centred around a politician in Northern Queensland who was advocating the Queensland government make massive investments in public transport rather than the current policy of building more roads.
> 
> His saw this as urgent as oil production was set to peak at the end of this decade. He also claimed that if all the sugar-cane in Australia was used to produce ethanol for alternative fuels it would only be enough for 1 litre of petrol, per car, per week. This is all from memory so apologies in advance if I got some of that info wrong.
> 
> The peak oil debate seems to have died down a bit but I suspect it will rear it's head again given where oil is at the moment.



Each person eats, roughly, food equivalent to 2 litres of petrol per week. Allowing for losses in turning that into ethanol etc, if we take ALL the food supply then that gives each of us one tank full of ethanol per year. And literally nothing left to eat.

Biofuels aren't the answer unless we're going to drastically reduce, in a short space of time, the number of people and cars on the planet. In 50 years that turns Sydney, for example, into a city about the same size that Hobart is today. And that's assuming we find a way to live without food.

As for the Dollar, we'll there's some toast we could possibly eat or perhaps we could just burn the notes for heating. Or use them for toilet paper once the cost of a roll exceeds the cost of simply wiping your bum with greenbacks.

IMO we''ll see competitive currency devaluations underway before too much longer. That's when the real inflation starts. 

Price inflation is everywhere now. Petrol, houses, food, power, insurance, commodities, medical costs... All rising far more rapidly than the supposed 3% inflation rate. Not surprising after years of rapid money supply growth and loose credit.


----------



## rederob (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> That' fair enough, depends on ones approach/goals.
> If one is a buy and holder, they are forever a bull and need to have the patience to ride out all the pot holes along the way or at least he some type of hedge.
> 
> Having said that, given that this has been such a strong bull over the last 4 years, most are expecting to see a continuation of the same, and any deviation from this can hit them very hard psychologically if they are not prepared for it.
> ...



wavepicker
You make some fair points.
However, very few here - I suspect - trade currencies, and are more reliant on working out what a weak greenback will mean to our stock market and/or economy.
There is no standout answer because a weak greenback has strong positive and negative influences on different market sectors.
My suspicion is that too many that actively trade have lost sight of the bigger picture here.
The weak greenback is not just a symptom of economic policies that also have the power to cure an ailing American economy.
The weak greenback today reflects a major transitional phase in global market dominance wherein America's mantle is being shaped by Asia until, ultimately, they steal it for keeps.
The subprime fiasco will hasten the demise of the greenback because we are  all becoming familiar with not just the levels of per capita indebtedness, but also with the far reaching tentacles of that debt burden: In other words, those thousands in the UK who have unwittingly made deposits to banks that could collapse because they have bought the debt of US homebuyers through various financial instruments, will leave an indelible impression in the minds of all other UK depositors that your money is not as safe as houses!
Similarly, some Australian mortgage lenders feeling the subprime pinch have sent ripples through our vast community of mortgagees that debt carries huge risks.  And knowing how that debt is now purchased will be something more of us examine before putting the house on the line.

But they are digressive points.
The stock market is a giant bull market and every chart of the major indexes will tell you that, if you see them from a very long term perspective.
The present bull run is relatively short, although has had some nice corrections since the massacre of 1987: Since that peak we are sitting over 300% higher.  More and more corrections are ahead.
A 4-5 year buy and hold strategy will not cut it if you want to be a long term investor.  Adjust your mindset to a 10 year horizon, minimum.

And what of a recession?
Will it be compartmentalised to the US, or must it be global?
And what happens to the greenback if there is a recession?
These are not questions that can be quickly canvassed here.
My view is that a US recession will occur soon after the US has withdrawn the majority of its troops from Iraq and its printing presses turn to the issue of productive money.

Summary: The dollar is in its death throes.  Any recovery will be short term (perhaps up to 12 months, but I suspect very much shorter) only.


----------



## noirua (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

The Death of the Dollar is as unlikely as China adopting the Dollar as its currency. The strength of the Euro against the Greenback is worrying Europe, as its extension has gone well beyond just keeping commodities priced lower than they would otherwise have been.

America will benefit as imports increase in cost and exports cheapen and they no longer need sanctions against cheaply imported steel etc.,

Australian miners and oilers have a big problem with the Aussie heading for A$1 to the greenback.

After 2008 and the China Olympic Games that may signal a slowdown, America may start to show its strengths. 
China stock indexes have changed in format, but a rise in 12 months of about 320% appears ridiculous and a sudden reversal, combined with problems in their property markets and racing ahead with opening 2 or 3 powerstations a month, will eventually take its toll.

Time will tell of course, as it always does, and makes fools of most of us.


----------



## dhukka (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> Yes, you bears would be shocked with the recovery! : I think it has everyone in a daze.
> 
> What's the story??!!??
> 
> ...




Why do assume that bears thought the market would not rally post Fed rate cuts? I'm hardly surprised, I posted on my blog at the end of August that I thought the market would end up for the month of September. 

How does a one month rally invalidate bearish views on the market? In September 2001 the XAO slid more than 7%. Then in October 2001 the XAO rallied *6.6%* and then rallied a further *6.7%* over Nov, Dec, and Jan 02. Then what happened? The XAO fell over *18.4%* between the end of Jan 02 - Feb 03.

So by your reasoning 6 years ago you would have declared the bears wrong for a good 4 months only to watch all those gains given up and then some. Was the market right back then? 

This above is not a forecast nor is it meant to imply that we will have a repeat of the the 2002 - 2003 episode. It just demonstrates that calling bears or bulls right or wrong at this stage has no merit. 

Below is another piece of history from Nouriel Roubini. Again this is not a forecast but a reminder that markets can and do get it wrong. 



> The stock market is still blissfully ignoring the onslaught of lousy macro news deluding itself that the Fed easing – and more to come – will rescue the economy from a hard landing. But it had the same delusion in 2001 when the S&P500 rallied 18% in April and May on the expectations that the aggressive Fed easing would lead to a second half of 2001 rebound and would prevent a recession. Too bad that the recession had already started in March. It took three months – until June – for the stock markets to lose their delusion and realize that – in spite of a most aggressive Fed easing – the economy was in a hard landing; thus, stock prices started to sharply fall again starting June 2001 after the 18% “sucker rally” of April and May.


----------



## wavepicker (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Kennas,

I am first to admit I was bearish post 16th July. In fact I think I was one of the only ones who shorted at that time. I will also admit that I though we ere going further down. I got the start of the correction right but the depth of the correction wrong.

Financially that was not a problem because I was not short post 17th August. In fact I was expecting a rally after then but not new high. So what went wrong with the bearish view??

Firstly in my opinion in terms of EW the market did  complete an impulse on the 16th July. Although we have made an unorthodox new high IMO this is still part of the correction that started on the 16th July. If this is the case then we might get a very fast impulse down starting mid to end of next week right through to mid November to exceed the August low to finish the correction.(This is an irregular or expanded flat under EW parlance-unfortunately it's impossible to tell when they will happen) I know that sounds like a bit of a long shot but that is how I am looking at things at present as the volatility has not let up yet.

The important thing I see is that there is a downward cycle between 5th October and 14/15th November. This might reasult in a mild move or a big move, no one knows, but I am banking on a big move. If it doesn't happen that way then I can eat crow and shutup.

 After that move down, that is when I am looking at going long term bullish for the next 12 months.

Cheers


----------



## CFD (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Smurf1976 said:


> Each person eats, roughly, food equivalent to 2 litres of petrol per week. Allowing for losses in turning that into ethanol etc, if we take ALL the food supply then that gives each of us one tank full of ethanol per year. And literally nothing left to eat.
> .




I don't know enough facts to argue with this, but to me it seem illogical.

Ethanol is mainly produced from wheat and sugar cane, both of which have been in over supply in resent years. Oz is still storing wheat faster than we can bribe people to buy it. If these over supplies (and any possible increased production of the same land) was used for ethanol, we could again become self sufficient in petroleum with the added benefits to the environment, balance of payments and farmers.


----------



## CFD (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> Kennas,
> If it doesn't happen that way then I can eat crow and shut up.
> Cheers




To share the in depth knowledge you have gained for the benefit of others  and use this to make predictions on a public forum, says heaps about your character IMHO. If you do get it wrong, I'm sure many of us will still hold your views in the same high regard next time. 

(ie there would be no need to eat humble pie in my account.)


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



CFD said:


> I don't know enough facts to argue with this, but to me it seem illogical.
> 
> Ethanol is mainly produced from wheat and sugar cane, both of which have been in over supply in resent years. Oz is still storing wheat faster than we can bribe people to buy it. If these over supplies (and any possible increased production of the same land) was used for ethanol, we could again become self sufficient in petroleum with the added benefits to the environment, balance of payments and farmers.



It don't want to hijack the thread (feel free to move this post someone) but I'll answer the question.

A few facts and figures.

A small (50g) bag of potato chips contains about 1 MJ (megajoule). It's about the same for a small chocolate bar.

An adult office worker needs to eat about 10 MJ of food per day. Perhaps 15MJ for a labourer.

One litre of liquid petroleum is 35 - 41 MJ (varies depending on whether it's crude oil, petrol etc being considered). 

Running an electric oven for half an hour requires about 13 MJ of coal into the power station. The oven uses far more energy than is contained in the food being cooked in most cases.

To heat your 250 litre hot water tank from cold (15 degrees) to hot (70 degrees) requires about 160 MJ of coal into the power station.

Overall, human food production just isn't in the game in terms of energy volume. If we take the Australian population as 20 million each using an average of 10 MJ per day (labourers etc higher, children etc lower) then we have 200 million MJ or 200 TJ per day of energy being eaten. 

Now, if we take that 200 TJ, Australia's entire food consumption, and put it into a power station then we get about 800 MW baseload. That's all of Australia's food generating enough power to run a bit over half of South Australia.

Turn it into petrol instead and we'll do slightly better with almost enough to run every car in SA. Pity about trucks, buses, trains, planes, ships or the rest of the country.

Biofuels might work based on algae or something like that but it won't work based on corn and wheat. And that's without even considering the oil and gas used to grow the crops in the first place.

As for the Dollar, I don't see it crashing as badly as some when measured against other currencies. That's because I'm expecting all currencies to go down all at once. Odds are the Dollar will fall more than some of the others but in my opinion there's more chance of me landing on Mars than fiat currencies collectively gaining value in the foreseeable future.


----------



## Mofra (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



CFD said:


> Ethanol is mainly produced from wheat and sugar cane, both of which have been in over supply in resent years. Oz is still storing wheat faster than we can bribe people to buy it. If these over supplies (and any possible increased production of the same land) was used for ethanol, we could again become self sufficient in petroleum with the added benefits to the environment, balance of payments and farmers.



There are also alternatives to wheat and sugar cane - Palm Oil is another tipped to be a large contributer to the global alternative fuel industry.


----------



## explod (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



Mofra said:


> There are also alternatives to wheat and sugar cane - Palm Oil is another tipped to be a large contributer to the global alternative fuel industry.




The debate on ethenol is off the thread but as others have I will dabble also.  It has been an interest for a number of years and I can assure that it is in no way a viable alternative, there is not enough land//or sea for that matter.  The internal combustion engine as we have enjoyed it is doomed.

At out current level of technology we have hydrogen and electric for future engines.  Fuel will come from wind, waves, solar, thermal and nuclear.  The sooner we stop bullcrap debate, playing politics and get on with it the better chance that in a few years we will still have air to breath.

Back on the subject itself, go back and have a good read of rederob's excellent post.  He is right on the ball and if you do not agree then in my humble opinion you have a lot yet to learn or you are just listening to the Wall Street spin doctors.  Notice in news overnight that even Goldman Sachs has become bearish on the dollar, struth,,,,talk about the captain leaving the sinking vessel.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



kennas said:


> wayneL said:
> 
> 
> > The SM is not a good indicator of the health of the economy. It is *only a good indicator of prevailing sentiment*. So for that purpose it can be discounted.
> ...



Other points satisfactorily picked up by others , but wanted to address this one:

NO, this is not a straw man argument at all. Look up what a straw man is. It is assigning an argument to an opponent he didn't make.

For example, here is a real life example:

Me: Call centre operators all live offshore and speak Hindi.
Straw Man: That's racist, I suppose you think we are all suicide bombers as well.

Once the logical fallacy was pointed out and destroyed, the straw man bade a humiliating withdrawal.

So you can see that my point about the SM being a measure of sentiment, is nothing like a straw man argument, nor is is logically fallacious, as Nouriel Roubini illustrated via dhukka.

OK one more point:



> Greed is good!




Greed is beneficial to the greedy while it works. But greed can destroy the greedy, indeed, it is destroying the earth.

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> Having said that, given that this has been such a strong bull over the last 4 years, most are expecting to see a continuation of the same, and any deviation from this can hit them very hard psychologically if they are not prepared for it.




It's also worth balancing this statement with a statement which says that it must be excruciatingly frustrating for wave counters and bears these last four years to keep calling for tops and corrections down to much lower digits on various world indices and to have no fruit from said labour.  With each threat of an actual correction the anticipation in the 'bear' camp to get ready to finally be able to say, "I told you so!" becomes immense.

It seems there is an ego driven psychological need for some people to be right when the majority are wrong.  Makes them feel special I suppose.  Not having a personal go at you wavepicker...just spring-boarding this point off your quote as I believe it's the yin to your yang.

ASX.G


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> Greed is beneficial to the greedy while it works. But greed can destroy the greedy, indeed, it is destroying the earth.
> Cheers




Wayne,

Considering communism has done more to destroy the planet than any other political doctrine/system known, how is greed linked to such a system?

Those who own look after what they own.
Those who don't own abuse to the fullest extent what they don't own.
Russia is a good casestudy.

No straws intended 

Cheers...


----------



## wavepicker (29 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



theasxgorilla said:


> It's also worth balancing this statement with a statement which says that it must be excruciatingly frustrating for wave counters and bears these last four years to keep calling for tops and corrections down to much lower digits on various world indices and to have no fruit from said labour.
> ASX.G




What makes you think  EW people are frustrated ASXGorilla?  E Wavers make mistakes like everybody else they also make stunning forecasts and trades. 

Times are not frustrating for me at all, I am as happy as a pig in sh.t. I don't have long term positions ATM so I don't care, just trade the market step by step. It was E wavers that called the peak to the day just prior the last correction AND WENT SHORT, only to be ridiculed and laughed at on the day  by the likes of yourself and others like we were nuts or something, have you forgotten??

It's E Wavers that went long the market thereafter while you and others where still waiting for signals from your lagging indicators in your systems. You know what? It's gonna be E Wavers and market timers that will be short next month while you and the others comfort each other while looking for reasons why it happened.

I really can't understand what you have against E wavers ASXGorrilla. It's like a hate tract, just because you tried it, and just "couldn't get it" then you automatically dismiss it. Well not everyone is like you ASXGorilla, some can and do make it work, much to your dismay.
Very rarely will I come out and attack you and "Quantative analysis". What and  how you conduct your business is up to you and I respect that. If you think EW is a load of garbage, fair enough. No one is forcing it down your throat, just ignore the posts I and other Elliotticians make and stick to what interests you. Does that sound fair enough?

Sure I like to be right, everybody does, it's human nature because it means I have traded correctly and will profit, but if I am wrong I have contingency plans. Unfortunately the system, method, trader, forecaster that does not make mistakes when looking at the probabilities of future market action does not exist.


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

You said:



wavepicker said:


> most are expecting to see a continuation of the same, and any deviation from this can hit them very hard psychologically if they are not prepared for it.




I'm just saying that the psychology cuts both ways.  I don't think its easy being a wave counter with long term wave counts or a bear with half a clue about macroeconomics when markets continue to defy gravity.

For the life of me I can't remember laughing at or ridiculing anyone.

ASX.G


----------



## Sean K (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> NO, this is not a straw man argument at all. Look up what a straw man is. It is assigning an argument to an opponent he didn't make.
> 
> ..........OK one more point:
> 
> ...



Yep, sorry Wayne.  Damn it! I was trying to catch you out!  

And I agree about the greedy thing, and I agree with Snake also. Perhaps humans will find a way no matter what political path we take...


----------



## wavepicker (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



theasxgorilla said:


> For the life of me I can't remember laughing at or ridiculing anyone.
> 
> ASX.G




Let me refresh your memory then:


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=34

Your reply(post #678) to post #676(which was a continuation of posts #603,662,and 676.)




theasxgorilla said:


> I'm just saying that the psychology cuts both ways. I don't think its easy being a wave counter with long term wave counts or a bear with half a clue about macroeconomics when markets continue to defy gravity.
> ASX.G




It ain’t easy being a trader using any methodology ASX. Including what you are doing. This is the hardest game in town and anyone who has a methodology that can beat the market as well as the rest of the pack CONSISTANTLY in most market CONDITIONS is probably doing something quite different to others.

Your basic algorithms in your systems have worked a treat in a strongly trending market ASX, but if you have been around long enough you will quickly realise this is not a normal market. So ASX Gorilla what are you going to do when market conditions do change and say stay choppy in a multi year sideways or bear?.  Even some of the best systems traders like Nick Radge and Tech/a realise this and have taken steps to diversify their knowledge into more discretionary approaches?

As for long term wave counts I will make the counts, but I don’t take long term trades(plans) as I focus on trading the market move by move and are predominantly a swing trader.

I am still of the opinion that EW was not wrong in the last correction, nor is it wrong now, the current leg is still part of the correction that started on the 16th July unless it’s invalidated and disproved which it has not just yet

Good Luck


----------



## chops_a_must (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> Let me refresh your memory then:
> 
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=34
> ...




You're kidding aren't you?


----------



## wavepicker (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



chops_a_must said:


> You're kidding aren't you?




I don't find it surprising to hear anything but that from you


----------



## wavepicker (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



rederob said:


> wavepicker
> 
> Summary: The dollar is in its death throes.  Any recovery will be short term (perhaps up to 12 months, but I suspect very much shorter) only.





Hello Red,

good to hear from you! Where have you been as have missed your posts?

Agreed the long term trend of the USD is down, never ever have I thought otherwise. But there will be retracements on the way down, perhaps some lasting longer than 1 year, that has been my argument(not with you) but others on this thread, but they are so fixated on the present, they forget to look at the big picture.

Just look at the USD Index since the USD was no longer backed by Gold since 1976. It has been in a downtrend, so why would I think it is about to get long term bullish? Well it won't  But you will also notice that it's had even longer downtrends than the one we are in in the past and had sizeable rallies lasting a while before resuming bearishly. Historically the long term pattern has not gone straight down but been very very volatile, so when someone says this thing is gonna drop like a rock, then you gotta ask yourself the question, yeah perhaps in the long term but right now? Well maybe but then again maybe not, it might also do some fancy footwork for a while, confuse the hell out of everybody first and then ultimately head south as you say in the longer term. You will notice last time it broke lower in the early 1990's it "jammed back up". Could it be that history repeats itself?

Cheers


----------



## Mofra (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



explod said:


> Back on the subject itself, go back and have a good read of rederob's excellent post.  He is right on the ball and if you do not agree then in my humble opinion you have a lot yet to learn or you are just listening to the Wall Street spin doctors.



Where did I disagree with rederob? Or mention that I think the USD is poised for recovery? If anything the situation worse than some here expect because of the 2002-04 accumulation of US currency by Asian treasuries provided a false support that is not sustainable in the long term. Without Bernake's interest rate slaying sword the signs are poor for the USD.


----------



## rederob (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> I am still of the opinion that EW was not wrong in the last correction, nor is it wrong now, the current leg is still part of the correction that started on the 16th July unless it’s invalidated and disproved which it has not just yet



Elliott Waves are never wrong.
They just revise the count pattern as more data emerges.
So wavepicker is on safe ground.

However, the thread is supposed to speculate on the death of the dollar, and in this regard some recent posts don't reveal too much on that front.
5 years ago I would have been willing to have an each way bet.
But today the weight of evidence suggests there is nothing short of a recession or similar traumatic event that will reinvigorate the US dollar.

From a personal perspective, where most of my investment dollars are long term and in commodities, it means that profits will be seriously eaten into by exchange rates.  While metal producers have had a great run in recent years, in the present financial year they will need to do at least 15% better just to retain parity with 06/07 results (due to the US dollar denomination of their sales).
Bit by bit I am moving money from metals into energy where I anticipate greater percentage returns over the next few years.  This is partly a reflection of my view that peak oil production will be achieved in the next year or so, and oil demand is progressing relentlessly higher.  Note that oil is USD denominated, also.  Which to me suggests that the weak greenback will see oil prices sitting well over $100 next year. In Australian dollar terms we should be insulated from some of the shock due to our stronger currency.  Nevertheless, we will all become more "conservative" in our total energy footprint when $100 oil is hit, which in turn could reduce demand growth and give us a slightly longer buffer before hitting the slippery slope of Peak's downcurve.


----------



## champ2003 (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



rederob said:


> Elliott Waves are never wrong.
> They just revise the count pattern as more data emerges.
> So wavepicker is on safe ground.
> 
> ...




And this all points to more conservation of Oil and alternatives to fight off climate change which of course will lead to an enormous flight into uranium! Funny how this is all tied in in some way or another. The dollar seems to be in peril and gold seems to be the immediate beneficiary.


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> Let me refresh your memory then:
> 
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=34
> ...




“I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Maya Angelou.

You have an excellent memory.

I'm sorry if you thought I was laughing AT you.  I wasn't.  I found it amusing because Edwood had wondered the same thing at almost the same time ie. how you were measuring that there were 'way too many bulls in this market'.  Consistent and tight Elliott Wave analysis followed by a seemingly subjective and sentiment based statement.  Given that you yourself have stated that I seem not to have grasped EW fully I thought you'd be impressed that I can tell the difference.  You ought to be flattered that people  pay enough attention to your analysis to notice the difference .

I try not to take myself too seriously.


----------



## wavepicker (30 September 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



theasxgorilla said:


> “I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Maya Angelou.
> 
> You have an excellent memory.
> 
> ...




Firstly I remembered because I don't read or post as many posts as you on these boards.

Secondly, EW and sentiment go hand in hand. 

ASX, you have made numerous critcisms of EW in the past both in this forum and your blog. 

It's good to hear you don't take yourself too seriously, but you do so more than me, being a mod and all.

For me this place is just for entertaiment value, but it can also become a distraction. Time spent better elsewhere such as studying the market.

BTW Good job on your blog

Cheers


----------



## wayneL (1 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Wayne,
> 
> Considering communism has done more to destroy the planet than any other political doctrine/system known, how is greed linked to such a system?



Well I don't think greed is confined to any one ideology; in any case, my comments were in no way directed at any particular political/economic system.



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Those who own look after what they own.
> Those who don't own abuse to the fullest extent what they don't own.
> Russia is a good casestudy.
> 
> ...



It is true that owners will look after their own. But *greedy* owners will:

* happily rape and pillage someone else's plot. e.g. destruction of Indonesian & New Guinea rainforests for cheap hardwood. Destruction of Amazon rainforest for cheap grazing for Burger King pillage of fish stocks and ocean environment... and thats just for a start.

* Be energy gluttons. Buy SUVs far larger than their needs, build homes vastly larger and more energy hungry than necessary. Global Warming anyone? Peak Oil anyone?

* Invade sovereign nations for oil and splatter radioactive uranium-238 all over the place.

Owners just have NIMBY syndrome, but greed still destroys. 




N.B. Does not imply that all owners are greedy, many are very responsible... and is still not comment on any political/economic system.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



> Considering communism has done more to destroy the planet than any other political doctrine/system known, how is greed linked to such a system?
> 
> Well I don't think greed is confined to any one ideology; in any case, my comments were in no way directed at any particular political/economic system.




Wayne, I was genuinely interested in an answer to this question from you or anyone else. 



> It is true that owners will look after their own. But *greedy* owners will:
> 
> * happily rape and pillage someone else's plot. e.g. destruction of Indonesian & New Guinea rainforests for cheap hardwood. Destruction of Amazon rainforest for cheap grazing for Burger King pillage of fish stocks and ocean environment... and thats just for a start.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the comments.

What is NIMBY syndrome?

Global warming is happening but for anyone to say humans are causing it borders on charlatanism. (not attacking) Many people are prepared to talk about it which is good, but it is at this point unable to be disproved. 

Russia has just taken the north pole. What awaits there?


----------



## wayneL (2 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> What is NIMBY syndrome?




*N*ot *I*n *M*y *B*ack *Y*ard


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (3 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wayneL said:


> *N*ot *I*n *M*y *B*ack *Y*ard




ah, got it.


----------



## MARKETWAVES (4 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

*Us Dollar
--------------*
( Usd/Chf )
---------------------------------------------------------
Here is a probable Wave-count

( Longer-Term ) Daily Bars
------------------------------------------------
*Only a Probability .............Not Cast in Stone !*


----------



## DTM (7 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Hey......, welcome back stranger.

Good to see you again and look forward to your posts.

Daniel

PS I sent you a pm if you ever decided to clean out your inbox.


----------



## wavepicker (7 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



MARKETWAVES said:


> *Us Dollar
> --------------*
> ( Usd/Chf )
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> ...




I agree MW. For the last month now I have been saying here that the movement down in the USD will be limited from here. Perhaps some minor subdivisions lower to finish the pattern since early 2006. I would expect some sort of rally to start by early next year

All this is accompanied with sentiment that is hyper bearish against 
USD. The last time this happened was Dec 2004 and then the dollar had a one year rally.

The move down since early 2006 appears to be highly corrective. IMO it would be difficult to count it anything else other than and abc(black labels) with black wave b being a contracting triangle which is the biggest clue the move that has followed is the last before a major upward rally since these contracting triangles always PRECEDE the last move in a sequence.


The chart is a long term (weekly EW count), sorry itg's hand drawn and a bit hard to read!!

Cheers


----------



## rederob (7 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



wavepicker said:


> I agree MW. For the last month now I have been saying here that the movement down in the USD will be limited from here. Perhaps some minor subdivisions lower to finish the pattern since early 2006. I would expect some sort of rally to start by early next year
> 
> All this is accompanied with sentiment that is hyper bearish against
> USD. The last time this happened was Dec 2004 and then the dollar had a one year rally.
> ...



wavepicker
I think we need to see 75cents before you get any bounce.
I am not optimistic of a bounce greater than 6 months, and actually favour a continuation to 72 cents.
When the USD fell through support in early September it also broke through the otherwise long term "bullish" falling wedge.
This suggests a greater likelihood of continuing weakness.
The Fed is in a catch 22 dilemma.
To curb the inflationary impact of a falling dollar it needs to raise interest rates, which in turn will exacerbate the current housing crisis.
Unfortunately the housing crisis has embedded itself in the broader financial sector through credit instruments that remain largely hidden until until financial institutions themselves expose themselves - and their probable risk.
I think it is more likely the Fed will reduce interest rates further to lessen mortgage defaults, much of which has yet to flow through US housing markets as interest rate resets (the "honeymoon is over" syndrome) trigger significantly more instability.


----------



## wavepicker (7 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



rederob said:


> When the USD fell through support in early September it also broke through the otherwise long term "bullish" falling wedge.




Hello Rederob,  Yes it broked through support, but I don't subscribe to this old Wall St axiom of selling breakdowns of for that matter buying breakouts. This is a very poor strategy IMO and this current move can just as easily be a false break. Fast moves in the opposite direction start from false breaks and present some of the best trading opportinities IMO.  
As for the falling bullish wedge or Ending Diagonal scenario it's still alive and HAS NOT been invalidated yet.
Throughout it's history since 1972 the USD has been been in a long term downtrend. I am not and never have disputed to the contrary, irrespective of what some people on this thread think. My point is that the USD has broken through support at othe major long term junctures through it's history only  jam back up again just to confuse the masses. I would be surprised if this is an exception. You and other have very valid long term fundemental points regarding the USD demise. I totally agree with you here, but IMO it just ain't gonna happen that fast. 



rederob said:


> This suggests a greater likelihood of continuing weakness.




Don't disagree but I think it will limited as USD tends to be seasonally stronger later between December to February


Have a great weekend!!


----------



## MARKETWAVES (8 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

Hi  Wavepicker ,

  This  is  a  Short-term view  of  the * US Dollar*  that  I  just  worked  out 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 I think that price is contained in the gap-up spike from this past friday's NFP report  .
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The  low end  of  the range of wick of  the  bar is  now  looking  like the  end  of  a  wave  4  
 buying  opportunity . So  now  it  all  about  controlling  the  Risk if  you decide  to  go  long .
 Keep  those  stops tight !

  Another  point  to  make  here  is  that  the  NFP  report  happened  at  I  think  it  was
  (9:00 am New York Time ) which means  that  Asia was  asleep  at  the  time ,  when
  they  wake  up  the Us  markets  will  be  closed .....
 So I  guess  Sunday  and  Monday  will  be  the  time  for  them  to  react  to  those NFP numbers .

 A  close  above  1822 (30 min bars) could start to  get a  whole lot of people excited........

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
 ( See  chart  below )


----------



## MARKETWAVES (8 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

*Usd/Chf*
 Heres  a  closer  look .........
///////////////////////////////////


----------



## MARKETWAVES (9 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



			
				marketwavez said:
			
		

> Now that friday's  NFP Fiascso is over -
> 
> Here is a probable wave-count scenario ............
> -------------------------------------------------------
> *Only a Probabilty!* ........ Not cast in stone !




Looks like we go that strong break-out after all 
( Price is now moving towards intended targets )......


----------



## Uncle Festivus (18 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

* Japan and China lead flight from the dollar*

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...7/10/16/bcnchina116.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox


Japan and China led a record withdrawl of foreign funds from the United States in August, heightening fears of a fresh slide in the dollar and a spike in US bond yields.






*The US requires $70bn a month in capital inflows to cover its current account deficit*

Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort.

Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan ($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have, on balance, sold Treasuries.
Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.
The release comes a day after the IMF warned that the dollar was still overvalued and likely to face "some depreciation in the medium term".


----------



## rederob (25 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



MARKETWAVES said:


> Looks like we go that strong break-out after all
> ( Price is now moving towards intended targets )......



That was 9 October.
What do we now have?
And what is the actual target we need to keep an eye out for - so I can focus?
By the way, I think the decline of the greenback is hastening as weeks pass.
And I prefer the EUR/USD as a measure, especially given the recent decline of the Swissie against stronger currencies (including AUD and CAD).


----------



## bean (25 October 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

One thing a declining US$ must be hurting a few other markets as there currencies are stronger.
The exporters??
Japan are they heading for a resession thank to the US$.
We are ready to have a rise in interest rates? 
We will soon be 1:1
A weaker US$ is actually stuffing the worlds economy?


----------



## reece55 (8 November 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*

This is a hilarious must read.....

Wayne, I'm thinking you will just love this one.....

Cheers
Reece

>> Link <<


----------



## explod (8 November 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



reece55 said:


> This is a hilarious must read.....
> 
> Wayne, I'm thinking you will just love this one.....
> 
> ...




Sounds close to the mark, maybe it was a phone tap.   Laughing or crying probably wont' make much difference anyway.  Dollar seems to have settled tonight so who knows, Benarke may have ruminated things back on track


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 November 2007)

*Re: The Death of the Dollar*



explod said:


> Sounds close to the mark, maybe it was a phone tap.   Laughing or crying probably wont' make much difference anyway.  Dollar seems to have settled tonight so who knows, *Benarke may have ruminated things back on track*




Nope. His "ruminations" have now developed an ominous "rumbling" ... best prepare for something unpalatable to spew forth soon...




AJ


----------



## BradK (17 November 2007)

This is from the UK Independent. Front page story. 

The dollar's decline: from symbol of hegemony to shunned currency
By Andy McSmith
Published: 17 November 2007


The decline of the dollar, symbol of US global hegemony for the best part of a century, may have become so entrenched that some experts now fear it is irreversible.

After months of huge and sustained turmoil on the money markets, lack of confidence in the world's totemic currency has become so widespread that an increasing number of international traders are transferring their wealth to stronger currencies such as the euro, which recently hit its highest level against the dollar.

"An American businessman over here who is given the choice would take anything but the dollar," David Buik of Cantor Index said yesterday. "I would want to be paid in yen, and if not yen then the euro or sterling."

Matthew Osborne, of Armstrong International, added: "The majority would say sterling. There are a few dealers in the City who may take the view that they'll take dollars now, while they're cheap, and hold on to them for 12 months.

"But the problem is so serious that there are people who in July or August might have been thinking, 'I'm paid in dollars, how annoying' for whom it's now a question of, 'Do you have a job; do you have a bonus?' "

The collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in the US, which is fuelling the dollar unrest, has already brought down one British bank, Northern Rock, and has forced others to declare vast losses. Yesterday, just as it appeared that the dollar might have finally reached its floor, there was another warning that the sub-prime crisis is going to get worse. The US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, warned an international business summit in South Africa: "The sub-prime market, parts of it will get worse before it gets better." Huge numbers of US homeowners are still cushioned by introductory interest rates set when they took out loans in 2005 or 2006, he said. When these introductory offers run out, their interest payments will increase, setting off another wave of defaulting and repossessions. And the dollar is enduring its rockiest spell in recent memory.

Kenneth Froot, a Harvard university professor and former consultant to the US Federal Reserve, warned yesterday: "Part of the depreciation [of the dollar] is permanent. There is no doubt that the dollar must sink against periphery currencies to reflect their increase in competitiveness and productivity."

Professor Riordan Roett, of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, told Bloomberg News: "There is a loss of confidence in the dollar and the US. It may only reflect the widespread dismay with the Bush administration, but it is obvious that the next administration, of either party, will have a steep uphill struggle." As well as reaching its lowest level against the euro, which has been trading at more than $1.47, the dollar has also fallen to its lowest level against the Canadian dollar since 1950, sterling since 1981, and the Swiss franc since 1995.

Its plight was made still worse by a jarring signal from China that it was switching to other currencies. Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing: "We will favour stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly."

The warning was reinforced by a Chinese central bank vice-director, Xu Jian, who said the dollar was "losing its status as the world currency".

China has stockpiled £700bn worth of foreign currency, and has only to decide to slow its accumulation of dollars to weaken the currency further. Last month, in a humiliating turn of events, the central bank in Iraq, four years after the United States invaded, stated that it wished to diversify reserves from a reliance on dollars.

Korea's central bank has urged shipbuilders to issue invoices in the local currency and take precautions against the weakened dollar, and three of the world's big oil exporters, Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, are demanding payment in euros rather than dollars. Iran insisted that Japan should make all its payments for oil in yen, rather than dollars.

Warren Buffet, who is reputedly the richest man in the world, was asked on the US network CNBC last month what he thought was the best currency in the world to own now. He answered: "Not the US dollar."

The Wall Street Journal ran an online poll asking people which currency, they would prefer to be paid in. The euro came top, ahead of sterling, with others such as the Canadian dollar, yen and Swiss franc trailing far behind. One respondent wrote: "Being an expat in Europe with a European employment contract, I am paid in euros, and happy to get paid in euros, and shop in the US, just as long as the cycle lasts through my retirement, so I can pick up pension in Europe and retire in the US."

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since September to revive the US economy, but the cuts – combined with the possibility that more were on the way – made the dollar less attractive to investors. Yesterday, it recovered slightly when one Federal Reserve banker, Randall Kroszner, dampened speculation about further interest rate cuts, saying that rates were low enough to get the economy through a "rough patch".

Problems with the greenback, combined with cheap air fares, have encouraged more Britons to go shopping across the Atlantic. British tourists spent £785m in New York last year, the city's marketing and tourism organisation said yesterday. There were 1,169,000 visitors to New York from the UK in 2006, with 54 per cent going for four to seven nights and 31 per cent staying for two to three nights. They spent an average of £112 a day. The average age of the UK visitor is 40.

Christopher Heywood, director of tourism PR for NYC & Company, said he expected the dollar crisis to attract yet more British shoppers. "The savvy traveller who's coming here for the shopping can really get a bargain. They're coming with one suitcase and leaving with two or three," he said.

"We have people coming over here even for weekend trips to shop for the famous brand names. People are coming for the department stores that everyone around the world knows, but also for the boutique stores out of the centre of Manhattan, anything from Madison Avenue and Fifth Avenue to Bleecker Street in the West Village and SoHo."


----------



## BradK (17 November 2007)

And the decline of the Dollar in Popular Culture. 

Rappers join models in insisting on euros as greenbacks fall further out of fashion

David Usborne in New York
Published: 17 November 2007

Pay attention as you watch the catchy new music video from the mega-star rapster Jay-Z, "Blue Magic", and see if you can't spot the product placement. It is not a fancy car that he is endorsing – although both his rides, a Rolls- Royce and soft-top Bentley, are plenty spiffy – but rather a currency – and it is not the dollar.

Like so many in the hip-hop genre, the song is a celebration of ostentatious wealth. But capturing the attention of commentators in this clip, shot in the glimmering, neon-lit canyons of New York City, are the repeated glimpses of flickering wads of â‚¬500 notes. Jay-Z has thus performed a currency defection: the dollar is not just down, it is out. The euro is the new bling.

It is only a music video, but Jay-Z, whose influence on pop culture is immense, may, wittingly or otherwise, be bringing America to what some pundits call the "point of recognition" – the moment when the droop of the dollar against other currencies ceases to be the preoccupation only of economists and American tourists in Paris, and enters the popular zeitgeist as a new and unsettling reality.

He is not, as it happens, the only celebrity imparting the new currency wisdom. Chatter about his video comes on the heels of reports that Gisele Bundchen, the world's richest model, is asking that payment for her numerous advertising gigs be in euros. While her manager has since denied any such stipulation exists in Bundchen's contracts, the message is nonetheless compounded: the dollar is out of fashion.

Even the Wu-Tang Clan, another power on the rapping scene, is daring to diss the dollar. Never mind that they coined the catchphrase of conspicuous consumption, "dolla dolla bill, y'all"' - click on their official website and inquire about buying their new album. It is priced not in greenbacks, but in euros.

The downward spiral of the dollar is hardly new, even if its plight was accelerated by the start of the housing credit crunch over the summer. It has lost 44 per cent of its value against the euro since 2002. The Canadian dollar reached parity with its American cousin in September and has since shot above it. But awareness on Main Street America may be lagging behind. Listen to presidential candidates take questions on the stump in Iowa and New Hampshire and still you will hear nary a question about it. Americans have been accustomed for so long to thinking of the dollar as reigning supreme and unassailable, that the reality will take time to sink in.

"It's ignorance and arrogance," commented Clyde Prestowitz, of the Economic Strategy Institute. "The candidates, the voters, the country's elite – they all take it for granted that the US currency is always going to be the world's currency. It hasn't hit them yet."

But Jay-Z has given the dollar's slow demise visuals and a soundtrack, while Bundchen has given it a sexy face. Now Americans, reluctant as they may be, might start to pay attention.

James Cramer, a financial commentator and television host, even blamed Bundchen. He has since back-tracked, but not entirely. "Is Gisele really to blame? No," he said. "But when things have gotten to the point that even people like Gisele and Jay-Z realise the dollar is too weak, things have gotten out of control."


----------



## Rafa (20 November 2007)

This could possibly be posted in many threads, including 'Iraq was about oil' and 'The Middle East and Western Asia: origin of the next world war'...


http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/19/1195321650487.html?sssdmh=dm16.289727



> *OPEC members discuss ditching $US*
> 
> Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says OPEC's member countries have expressed interest in converting their cash reserves into a currency other than the depreciating US dollar, which he called a "worthless piece of paper."
> 
> ...


----------



## wayneL (15 March 2008)




----------



## Aussiejeff (15 March 2008)

wayneL said:


>




wayneL, _now look at moi, look at moi...!_ I've got one word to say to you...

*"Priceless"*





AJ

PS: Hark! Is that a Eurobird I hear in the distance, twittering _"Burn baby, *BURN*!"_  LOL


----------



## explod (15 March 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> wayneL, _now look at moi, look at moi...!_ I've got one word to say to you...
> 
> *"Priceless"*
> 
> ...




Well Big Chief Burnin Bush been jawbonin this week so maybe his feathers caught fire from your nice rubber band plane and de market got to follow the flame on Thursday.    Seemed to go out quick though.

Arr well, maybe we could do a deal with the cavallery and burn the middle east a bit.   They sit up an look at that.


----------



## explod (17 March 2008)

explod said:


> Well Big Chief Burnin Bush been jawbonin this week so maybe his feathers caught fire from your nice rubber band plane and de market got to follow the flame on Thursday.    Seemed to go out quick though.
> 
> Arr well, maybe we could do a deal with the cavallery and burn the middle east a bit.   They sit up an look at that.




Looks like they got a bit rattled.   Their Index down 1.2% today.   Got to be some fireworks of sorts tonight.    

I bet Big Chief's Staff Officer being tapped on de shoulder inna de tee pee as we speak.


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## Kauri (17 March 2008)

*Reuters,,,,*Reports on Saturday said that *Bush plans to meet Monday with his advisory panel on financial markets - which includes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson* - after the Fed had to step in to keep Bear Stearns afloat. Dow Jones reports that it is unlikely that Bush will back any dramatic action to help the US economy after the markets were unnerved on Friday due to the growing credit crunch that almost claimed its biggest victim yet on Friday. Dow Jones notes that in Bush"s weekly radio address on Saturday he said the federal government must guard *against going too far in trying to fix the troubled economy, cautioning that "one of the worst things you can do is overcorrect.*" Bush said "*it is clear that growth has slowed*," but said the recently passed program of tax rebates would lift the economy in the second quarter. He also warned that "_*If we were to pursue some of the sweeping government solutions that we hear about in Washington, we would make a complicated problem even worse.""Steering through a rough patch requires a steady hand on the wheel and your eyes up on the horizon. And that's exactly what we're going to do,*_" the president added. In response, Senate Majority Leader Henry Reid, D-Nev., said in a written statement, "*The president continues to convince himself that inaction is the cure-all* for the economic problems hurting hardworking Americans."


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## Aussiejeff (17 March 2008)

_*"Steering through a rough patch requires a steady hand on the wheel and your eyes up on the horizon.*_ 

Ahhhh! Such wise words from *The Ultimate Master* of the succinct, yet philosophically deep quote...

The US is saved!


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