# CTM - Centaurus Metals



## System (10 September 2010)

Centaurus Metals Limited (CTM), formerly Glengarry Resources Ltd (GGY), is a minerals exploration company based in Perth. CTM's current exploration activity is focused on the Percyvale and Hampstead Projects located in North Queensland. The current projects are located in a region which contains significant economic quantities of gold, base metals, uranium, molybdenum and nickel.

http://www.centaurus.com.au


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## enigmatic (14 September 2010)

Been surprised that there hasn't been much talk about this share.. looking like a good iron ore junior.. there got a small market capital and there targeting a production of 3mtpa. 

would be interested to see if anyone has interest in this specy play


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## noie (14 September 2010)

I like this as a speccy, and one of the very few with a toe hold in Brazil

i am waiting for the dust to settle on the SPP then might jump in.

Centaurus Metals Ltd To Raise AUD18 Million To Accelerate Growth At Brazilian Iron Ore Projects
Tuesday, 7 Sep 2010 08:15pm EDT 
Centaurus Metals Ltd announced that it will raise up to AUD18 million to accelerate growth at its Brazilian Iron Ore Projects. The funds will be raised through a AUD14.4 million share placement at AUD0.075 per share to international and domestic clients of Joint Lead Managers Hartleys Limited and Southern Cross Equities Limited and a AUD3.6 million Share Purchase Plan (SPP) to existing shareholders. The SPP will also be undertaken at AUD0.075 per share. Centaurus reserves the right to scale back applications under the SPP if total demand exceeds AUD3.6 million. The funds raised will be used to progress the Company’s domestic iron ore projects in Brazil to a point where a development decision can be made on the preferred key domestic projects whilst its larger regional iron ore tenement package is explored with a view to defining a resource of sufficient size to be able to pursue an export project. The details of the capital raising are: Shares under the Placement and SPP will be issued at AUD0.075 per share; The Placement will be made in two tranches (Tranche 1 and Tranche 2); 48 million shares will be offered under the SPP to persons registered as shareholders of Centaurus as at September 7, 2010, with SPP documentation to be sent to eligible shareholders shortly. The SPP is expected to open on September 14, 2010 and close on September 28, 2010.


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## fatmango (8 January 2011)

*: CTM - Centaurus Metals*

Have just bought a small parcel in CTM. Hoping to trade on it....any thoughts?


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## enigmatic (9 January 2011)

I'm interested in following this one as it is a up coming junior in Brazil.
With brazil growing at a rate of about 5% per year in GDP and the possibility of Brazil becoming one of the Top 5 economic powers in the next decade it will be interesting to see if they can get there initial 3mtpa output once this has been instablished with an applied 120-150million of free cash flow the company will hopefully be able to establish there goal of identifying a project of 12-15mtpa giving them an estimated 500million+ cash flow.


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## fatmango (14 January 2011)

enigmatic said:


> I'm interested in following this one as it is a up coming junior in Brazil.
> With brazil growing at a rate of about 5% per year in GDP and the possibility of Brazil becoming one of the Top 5 economic powers in the next decade it will be interesting to see if they can get there initial 3mtpa output once this has been instablished with an applied 120-150million of free cash flow the company will hopefully be able to establish there goal of identifying a project of 12-15mtpa giving them an estimated 500million+ cash flow.




Thanks for your thoughts and the information. This may be one to hold on to for a while as the future does look interesting.


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## enigmatic (22 February 2011)

Interesting Presentation, I had high hopes of this company, However I have yet to see a definitive plan stating when they will get particular operations up and running.
They do state projects will have a particular Mtpa but never state when.

The only reason I'm interested is they state they will have 3Mtpa by 2013 and looking at operation or resources capable of 10-12Mtpa by this year.
however no mention of how.

Will continue to watch and may change my opinion if something definitive is presented.


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## enigmatic (28 April 2011)

Drilling on existing resource areas are to be completed in April with the Updated Resource Expected in May sometime. _Should see some rise if good results come May, continuing with more drilling to increase size of Resource_

Targeting Initial Iron Ore production of 3Mtpa by the end of 2013, to be sold into the domestic steel industy. _Low Operation cost due to low transportation cost_

Jambreiro, Itambe and Passabem, have a collectively host JORC compliant resources totalling 126million tonnes at a grade of 30% Fe.
Current JORC resource base should produce over *50Mt of High grade (+63% Fe)*

Jambreiro will be the first project which has the possibility of being a 2Mtpa producer in its own right with Beneficiation test demonstrating 66.2% Fe 

Finally the company has roughly 12million in cash which i believe will provide them the required cash to complete there current goals. 3Mtpa will be a fair amount of profit for a company of this size. 

Would be interested if anyone else has this on there radar or am I the only one with Brasil on my mind. They have alot of infrastructure to come in the future (Loads of Iron Ore required )


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## fatmango (25 August 2011)

Just received the notice re share and option placement. all a bit too much for me. If anyone can enlighten me it would be most appreciated. Does the share placement mean a dilution of value (and price)? Is the option price of 15c too high?


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## fatmango (12 October 2011)

My Centauras Metals stock CTM has turned into CTMDA. Could someone please enlighten me as what this means? Thanks


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## McNovice (18 April 2012)

Some nice upward movement in the past few weeks, seemed to be stuck on .50c for a while and some good results below

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...bolster-potential-resource-upgrade-27726.html


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## McNovice (27 April 2012)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120427/pdf/425vmszp5jcd1v.pdf


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## springhill (6 August 2012)

*SERRA DA LONTRA IRON ORE PROJECT DRILL RESULTS AND PROJECT UPDATE*

Drilling at the Senna Prospect, the second of two prospect areas at Serra da Lontra, has been ongoing and highlights of recent drill results include the following continuous intersections of siliceous itabirite with several of these intersections falling within wider mineralised zones (see attached Figure 2 for drill hole location map and Tables 1 and 2 for a full listing of new intersections from drilling at the Senna Prospect):
● 39.5 metres @ 38.1% Fe, 5.7% Al2O3 and 0.08% P from 11.3m in Hole SDL-DD-12-0026
● 30.7 metres @ 37.8% Fe, 5.3% Al2O3 and 0.08% P from surface in Hole SDL-DD-12-0028
● 21.3 metres @ 38.1% Fe, 6.2% Al2O3 and 0.08% P from 8.2m in Hole SDL-DD-12-0025
● 17.0 metres @ 35.8% Fe, 9.7% Al2O3 and 0.09% P from 9.0m in Hole SDL-RC-12-0041
● 8.0 metres @ 50.5% Fe, 0.6% Al2O3 and 0.09% P from surface in Hole SDL-RC-12-0042

While significant intersections of siliceous itabirite have been encountered at the Senna Prospect, drilling has intersected more amphibolitic itabirite than originally anticipated, with some of the continuous intersections of amphibolitic itabirite including:
● 40.0 metres @ 43.2% Fe, 1.8% Al2O3 and 0.08% P from surface in Hole SDL-RC-12-0042
● 48.6 metres @ 32.3% Fe, 1.7% Al2O3 and 0.07% P from 35.4m in Hole SDL-DD-12-0024
● 21.1 metres @ 33.3% Fe, 1.9% Al2O3 and 0.08% P from 98.7m in Hole SDL-DD-12-0022
● 20.0 metres @ 35.1% Fe, 0.7% Al2O3 and 0.13% P from 23.0m in Hole SDL-RC-12-0032

*PILOT PLANT TESTWORK CONFIRMS HIGH GRADE PRODUCT FOR JAMBREIRO IRON ORE PROJECT
*● Key pilot plant testwork program on Jambreiro friable ore complete● High-grade product (66.0% Fe) with low impurity levels produced
● New process flow sheet delivers product with enhanced physical properties
● Potential to reduce capital and operating costs
● Product being prepared for delivery to potential customers

The extensive testwork program, which has been conducted on the friable itabirite iron ore which underpins the Project, demonstrated the ability to deliver a high-grade sinter feed-blend product with low impurities (4.1% silica, 0.8% Al2O3, 0.01% phosphorus) at an improved mass recovery of 39.4%.
The key batches of the testwork program generated approximately 9 dry tonnes of finished product which will now be prepared for distribution to domestic steel producers in Brazil ahead of discussions around potential off-take arrangements. Some of the product will also be used to undertake independent sinter testwork.
Importantly, the testwork has also revealed opportunities to reduce both capital and operating costs for the Jambreiro Project by introducing slight changes to the design of the flowsheet in response to the testwork results. These will be incorporated in the Bankable Feasibility Study due for completion next month.


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## greggles (20 September 2017)

Centaurus Metals up today after announcing it had identified a significant new exploration opportunity
at its Pebas Copper‐Gold Project in Brazil.

Watching with interest.


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## greggles (23 November 2017)

More positive news has seem the CTM share price continue to advance. There have been a total of 10 price sensitive announcements since I last posted in September. They appear to be making good progress at their Salobo West Project and have delineated an extensive IOCG anomaly that is 6.5km long and up to 600m wide. Some real potential here.


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## warthogjump17 (11 May 2020)

Anyone else watching this stock? Short term it is likely to hit $100m MC which would see it at almost double the current share price. It is currently in a very strong bullish trend. Good time to buy if not already in IMHO.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 August 2020)

*Key Catalyst*
Significant thick semi-massive to massive nickel sulphide intercepts from infill and extensional drilling at Jaguar Central Deposit, along with thick, shallow high-grade nickel at Jaguar North.

CTM is reaping the rewards of maintaining focused exploration activity, following its recent company-making acquisition of Vale’s 100%-owned Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Brazil. Jaguar represents an at-surface nickel sulphide project, where a maiden JORC 2012-compliant resource of 48.0mt @ 1.08% Ni for 517,500 tonnes of nickel, has just been announced. The Jaguar Deposit is unique in the nickel sulphide space, as the high-grade nickel sulphide mineralisation comes almost to surface, whilst also continuing at depth. More than 80% of the nickel metal in the maiden Resource lies within 200m of surface, demonstrating the strong open-pit potential of the Project. Jaguar is already one of the largest near-surface undeveloped nickel sulphide projects in the world and CTM’s deepest hole to date extends to a depth of just 300m, which in a nickel sulphide context means CTM has only just scratched the surface.

*Jaguar Nickel Project Update*
As CTM continues its drilling campaign at its 100%-owned Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Brazil’s Carajás Mineral Province, it has released further encouraging results from its Jaguar Central and Jaguar North Deposits.

*Overview*
Jaguar drilling continues to deliver a consistent flow of high-quality, shallow intersections of semi-massive and massive nickel sulphides that support, and are likely to enhance, CTM’s recent maiden JORC 2012 Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 48.0Mt at 1.08% Ni for 517,500 tonnes of contained nickel. A number of the new assay results have come from extensional and step-out drill holes that were not included in the June 2020 MRE and are expected to help build on the existing MRE

*Technical Significance*
The latest assays included some of the best drilling results generated from the Jaguar Project to date, suggesting further near-term increases to the existing Mineral Resource, whilst also underlining the prospects for development of a high-margin nickel sulphide mine – given the thick, high-grade nature of the mineralization that extends from surface and remains open at depth. The highlight is the intercept of 33.7m at 2.23% Ni at Jaguar Central, which occurs from just 46m depth.

Many of the latest results reported will boost the high-grade component of the company’s Mineral Resource, which hosts an estimated 321kt of contained nickel at a grade of more than 1.5% Ni – with more than 70% of the high-grade resource located within 200m of surface and amenable to extraction via open-pit mining. CTM’s maiden Resource Estimate announced in June contains more than 500,000 tonnes of nickel at an average grade of over 1.0% Ni.

With a third diamond rig to be reactivated over the next few weeks, and all three diamond rigs to recommence double-shift operations, CTM is aiming to boost the Indicated component of the Mineral Resource via in-fill drilling, while also testing a number of the deeper targets where DHEM Conductor plates extend well below the depth of current drilling and are likely to represent semi-massive and massive sulphides.

*Summary*
_CTM is moving ahead in leaps and bounds with respect to its Jaguar project, a fact reflected in the company’s strong share price performance. The first major milestone for the company was the delivery of its maiden Jaguar JORC 2012-compliant MRE, which is really just the start. Ongoing drilling is showing that the mineralisation extends from shallow depths and along strike, is thick, high-grade and consistent. The key is the near-surface nature of the mineralsation – with 80% of the current Resource lying within 200m of surface – meaning mining, costs and grades are more akin to that of an open-pit gold operation._

_ From a bigger picture perspective, the Jaguar project provides CTM with the opportunity to pursue development of an advanced and well-located nickel sulphide project that offers high-grade open-pit development potential. Nickel sulphide deposits like Jaguar are extremely rare globally and for CTM to be able to successfully acquire such an asset is a game-changer._

_https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/0...ts-shallow-high-grade-nickel-at-jaguar-north/_


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## Dona Ferentes (19 October 2020)

another kick up








*Key Catalyst*
Drilling at the Jaguar Central Deposit intersects thick semi-massive – massive nickel sulphides, confirming down-dip extensions of previous high-grade intercepts which remain open.
_
CTM is reaping the rewards of maintaining focused exploration activity, following its recent company-making acquisition of Vale’s 100%-owned Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Brazil. Jaguar represents an at-surface nickel sulphide project, where a maiden JORC 2012-compliant resource of 48.0mt @ 1.08% Ni for 517,500 tonnes of nickel was recently announced to the market. The Jaguar Deposit is unique in the nickel sulphide space, as the high-grade nickel sulphide mineralisation comes almost to surface, whilst also continuing at depth. More than 80% of the nickel metal in the maiden Resource lies within 200m of surface, demonstrating the strong open-pit potential of the Project. Jaguar is already one of the largest near-surface undeveloped nickel sulphide projects in the world and CTM’s deepest hole to date extends to a depth of just 300m, which in a nickel sulphide context means CTM has only just scratched the surface_.


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## The Cruising Investor (1 January 2021)

I think we will see a take over of this Company this year. It's indicated and inferred reserves of nickel sulphides are too big not to go unnoticed.
plus it's my top pick in the 2021 share portfolio competition


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## Sean K (26 March 2021)

CTMs had a good year. I wonder if all the fun is now factored into the SP? Their development timeline looks pretty slow considering their claim that this is the 'biggest and best' Ni project on the planet. 

Anyone into this puppy?


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## Sean K (29 March 2021)

Scoping Study out this am.

Is a MC of $250m good value for these figures at this stage of development?


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## matty77 (26 May 2021)

anyone got any other thoughts on CTM at the moment?


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## Sean K (24 June 2021)

matty77 said:


> anyone got any other thoughts on CTM at the moment?




Some decent step out and in-fil results. Should grow the MRE from current 562K t of contained metal. @17,700 a tn that's about $10b in the ground making it a Tier 1 asset. Not too many of those around. LRTs most held stock in their resource portfolio. MC under $250m for a $10b resource seems a bit cheap.


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## Sean K (29 July 2021)

Hartley's report with target $1.40 ish. Quite a bit up on current 92c. Hitting a top. Will she break through...


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## Sean K (17 August 2021)

Consolidated a bit and now 90c should be support. The overall story for Ni looks good particularly CTM with Jaguar ESG credentials. Sprott also covering and of course have a buy on them, since they own a chunk of it. All things being equal, expect a bounce from around here.


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## bk1 (17 August 2021)

Thats an interesting concept "double premium". I have not seen these forecasts of carbon offset prices before, but i think its inevitable.
Its for those reasons that i stay away from Nickel laterite miners.
Holding


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## Sean K (25 August 2021)

Some good step out results here which will add some tonnage to future MREs. Not sure how big this thing needs to get or what total size is factored into the sp already. They're ramping it as a top 10 Ni deposit in the world so sounds like the right deposit at the right time. 

Is that a cup and handle I see? Hope that plays out. Target $1.30.


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## Sean K (1 September 2021)

Interesting to see Karmanis (ex Jubilee) increasing his stake substantially to +5%. Twiggy seems to be interested in Ni at the moment, perhaps he can shift some of his dividends to bump up the MC a bit.


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## bk1 (1 September 2021)

Harmanis?
I wondered who he was, didn't realise he was the man behind Jubilee...


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## Sean K (1 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> Harmanis?
> I wondered who he was, didn't realise he was the man behind Jubilee...




Woops, yes, Kerry Harmanis. Not sure if he's doing anything other than investing in other projects at the moment.


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## barney (1 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> Harmanis?
> I wondered who he was, didn't realise he was the man behind Jubilee...




Share held under the Harman Family account so there is more than one of them

Holding a lazy +18 million shares.  At todays price that is over $18 million

Not exactly small change.


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## Sean K (10 September 2021)

I think some exploration success around Jaguar is probably expected and factored into the sp. Probably depends on how good that drilling is, but Tiger looks to be what the punters would be hoping for. I don't think this would effect the valuations done above. Yet.

Cup and handle still in play.


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## Sean K (16 September 2021)

Jaguar and nearby is turning into a Tier 1 asset by the looks. I think those valuations above will need to be rejigged going forward. I'm predicting a takeover by a major in the region. Not sure who'd be interested in a large bolt-on Ni deposit in northern Brazil producing 20k+ tn pa? I'm tipping Vale and Oz will be looking very closely at it.


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## bk1 (16 September 2021)

They are putting themselves in the shop window, aren't they? The previous announcement talked about the Tigre drilling program, theres a lot of greenfield exploration going on.
I'm tempted to buy more.


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## Sean K (16 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> They are putting themselves in the shop window, aren't they? The previous announcement talked about the Tigre drilling program, theres a lot of greenfield exploration going on.
> I'm tempted to buy more.



Vale could use Jaguar to replace or extend mining at Onca-Puma just 15km down the road. Not sure if it's the same ore/mining type proposed. Hard to find decent info on their mill and operations. Was shut down for a couple of years due to issues with waste effecting locals. That's of slight concern that I'm sure CTM would be wary of. Vale is going full in on their ESG credentials too, so this would fit. I'm sure it's going to be big enough for them especially with Ni at $20K a tn.

They're still working on MRE upgrades before DFS due Q4 next year, so a lot of drilling and extra tonnage to add till then. More upside to come I think if Ni price stays around where it is. Not sure of supply/demand on global Ni at the moment, but the Ni-Cu-Co story for EVs etc growth is pretty strong.


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## Sean K (16 September 2021)

I hadn't noticed Sprott issue a new broker report on 10 Sep. As they're a major holder take this with a grain of salt. However, I do like the upgrade from $1.35 to $1.50 after the Tiger exploration success. 

The cup and handle TA target remains $1.30.


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## Sean K (24 September 2021)

Step out drilling at Onca Preta will add more tonnage to future upgrades. Hopefully Tigre turns into something and these guys will be on their way to 100Mt @ 1% Ni for about 1Mt contained Ni. That's ambitious but would be a very good result going to DFS late next year. Long way off yet and patience required, even though they have a bunch of rigs spinning. Shoring up something at Tigre and another green field discovery would be some good news going forward. At quite a discount to price targets of analysts coverage that range from $1.20 to $1.50. Topping up on weakness. 

Cup and handle looks like it's failed after the Evergrande sell off. :-(


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## Sean K (11 October 2021)

CTM still going sideways and medium-long term up. Moving back up to all time highs again. Unusual moves today, up 7% ish on no news, maybe some of those holes announced last month are on the way... 

I didn't realise they bought Jaguar off Vale, so I guess them taking over CTM is unlikely. Vale to get a royalty type payment going forward. They also have an iron ore project that's not accounted for on their balance sheets but will be looking at a partner to take that over. That could be a surprise. Interview from a couple of weeks ago:


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## sptrawler (21 October 2021)

kennas said:


> Step out drilling at Onca Preta will add more tonnage to future upgrades. Hopefully Tigre turns into something and these guys will be on their way to 100Mt @ 1% Ni for about 1Mt contained Ni. That's ambitious but would be a very good result going to DFS late next year. Long way off yet and patience required, even though they have a bunch of rigs spinning. Shoring up something at Tigre and another green field discovery would be some good news going forward. At quite a discount to price targets of analysts coverage that range from $1.20 to $1.50. Topping up on weakness.
> 
> Cup and handle looks like it's failed after the Evergrande sell off. :-(
> 
> ...



Hey Kennas do CTM own any processing plant, or are they farming that part out?


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## Sean K (22 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Hey Kennas do CTM own any processing plant, or are they farming that part out?




They've done a scoping study on building a mill and producing Ni sulphate. They're a long way from mining. DFS not due till Q4 22. I think once they've firmed up some more tonnage to extend a LOM to 15 years + they'll probably be taken over by a major. I'm slightly concerned about the locals causing trouble. Vale have had to halt their nearby Onca Puma mine a couple of times due to not looking after the environment - read compensation. Not sure where they are on the Lassonde Curve. They're still exploring but also into the feasibility - development phase. They've had some initial success in finding more deposits close by so I'm hoping there's some more upside surprises with discovery on the way to financing. Going to be a slow burn from here I think.


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## bk1 (22 October 2021)

Well, there's your answer to future plans, ASX announcement.
"proposed Jaguar flotation and nickel sulphate production facility is to be located."
533 Hectares of land added to their current endowment.


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## mullokintyre (22 October 2021)

Thanks to kennas and bk1 and their most valuable discussions recently,I have added centaurus to the portfolio on todays  price wekness.
Happy now to sit back till the DFS comes out next year.
Unless of course it shoots over 1.50, then I will have to take my profit.
So much useful discussion on stocks in this forum.
Mick


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## Sean K (22 October 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Thanks to kennas and bk1 and their most valuable discussions recently,I have added centaurus to the portfolio on todays  price wekness.
> Happy now to sit back till the DFS comes out next year.
> Unless of course it shoots over 1.50, then I will have to take my profit.
> So much useful discussion on stocks in this forum.
> Mick




If Ni keeps going on up then I think this will follow it. I think I trust the Argonaut valuation of $1.40 a bit more than Sprott's $1.50 due to Sprott being the major shareholder, so if it makes Argo's guestimate I'll be skimming, unless they make some material discovery that changes the playing field. MRE update due before the end of the year and they've had some good extension drilling results the past couple of months. If they can raise the tonnage up from 60Mt to 70-80Mt ish then that could add another 100-200Kt of Ni and another 5+ years onto the LOM. (Numbers plucked)


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## Sean K (28 October 2021)

No significant update in the Quarterly although they have omitted to remind themselves we're due an MRE upgrade by the EOY.



> From an exploration perspective, eight diamond rigs are now operating on site continuing to drill both in-fill and step-out extensional holes at the Project that will underpin the next resource upgrade, planned and on schedule for December 2021. Presently, a single RC rig continues to drill the extensive suite of greenfields targets identified across the tenement area.




What might be new to some is more significant mention of their iron ore project which has a small M&I resource on it and some feasibility studies were done by Vale. Too small for them, plus it's magnetite, so I'm not sure how much value it would be to sell it, but if they could get some more cash on hand shortly that would be good to take them through to DFS for Jaguar. They've only got $15m in the kitty, so CR on the horizon.


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## Sean K (1 November 2021)

Not sure how close CTM is tracking Ni price, but it should obviously have an effect of some sort. CTM is still an explorer, early developer, with lots to navigate to mining. Potential upsides and downsides. As mentioned has the potential to get up to the 80Mt @ 1% mark. My money is on a takeover by a major who wants to bolt on a low emissions miner / green metal project. Twiggy? The Big Australian? Even Oz. 

Hoping these support lines hold but any further weekness looks like a long term opportunity. Plus, I need to prop it up for this months comp!


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## mullokintyre (1 November 2021)

To my untrained eye it looks like a series of higher lows, then higher highs.
Rinse. repeat.
Mick


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## Sean K (1 November 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> To my untrained eye it looks like a series of higher lows, then higher highs.
> Rinse. repeat.
> Mick




This will conform to an EW count in 6 months too.


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## mullokintyre (1 November 2021)

Don't tell me. EW equals Elliott Wave??
Mick


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## Sean K (4 November 2021)

I've been expecting M&A activity in this space and thought it more likely one of the locals in Brazil would take it out. Vale or Oz. Since Vale was the one who initially sold it to CTM and will get a royalty from it, that doesn't make a lot of sense. Oz? Maybe. The other suiter may be BHP or something related to Twiggy who are fighting over Noront in Canada. Why pay overs up there when there's a perfectly good well developed property down here? Maybe it's not the scale they're after, but it's a pretty handy 20Kt pa clean Ni product to feast on...


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## Sean K (10 November 2021)

Was expecting some good news this month and hence picked it in the monthly comp. And yes, they did come out with some good news, but I think it was factored into yesterdays gains. Was up quite a bit yesty on nothing, and today slightly down (so far) on something. It's a wacky world this share market.

Anywho, these extension / step out drill results  and first assays from Tigre show that the current MRE will grow substantially, and it's already going to be a long life mine. If they can increase total tonnage to 100Mt @ around 1% then that's a whopping 1Mt of Ni sulphate.

Next MRE upgrade mid-Dec, so pencil me in for this in next months comp too @Joe Blow


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## bk1 (10 November 2021)

Decent grades too, if grade is still king...


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## mullokintyre (10 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> Was expecting some good news this month and hence picked it in the monthly comp. And yes, they did come out with some good news, but I think it was factored into yesterdays gains. Was up quite a bit yesty on nothing, and today slightly down (so far) on something. It's a wacky world this share market.
> 
> Anywho, these extension / step out drill results  and first assays from Tigre show that the current MRE will grow substantially, and it's already going to be a long life mine. If they can increase total tonnage to 100Mt @ around 1% then that's a whopping 1Mt of Ni sulphate.
> 
> Next MRE upgrade mid-Dec, so pencil me in for this in next months comp too @Joe Blow



Beat me to it, was just reading  the report and calculating the value based on todays Ni price (still north of 20k per tonne \, but back from most recent highs). 
100MT would make it a very noice long term earner.
The question now is, how long before they tap the market?
Mick


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## Sean K (10 November 2021)

bk1 said:


> Decent grades too, if grade is still king...




Grade's are good. Over 2% is high. This thing has the tonnage making it a long-life asset. If they get the LOM up to 15 yrs plus, then it's something a larger player would like to see on their books.


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## Sean K (10 November 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Beat me to it, was just reading  the report and calculating the value based on todays Ni price (still north of 20k per tonne \, but back from most recent highs).
> 100MT would make it a very noice long term earner.
> The question now is, how long before they tap the market?
> Mick




They had $15m at the end of Sep, so won't be far away. They're a long way from building the mine. Decision to mine not scheduled till Q3 2023. So, there will probably be a couple of raisings between now and then. Unless they fast track things. They probably want to firm up a bigger resource first. MRE upgrades in Dec and then Q2 2022.


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## Sean K (11 November 2021)

New report from Sprott after the recent ann. They only think the next MRE will take it up to the 70Mt mark whereas I was hoping for 80M. Sprott target no change at $1.50. Will wait and see.


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## Sean K (27 November 2021)

CTM and HCH on the panel to discuss operating in Latin America.

Both due for significant resource upgrades to put them on the map, IMO. 

$200 and $400m MCs, with $billions of Cu and Ni in the ground waiting to be dug up. 

Both will be taken over in the mid term, IMO, due to the flight to RE minerals/metals. Wouldn't be surprised if BHP et al come a knockin.

CTM has just ran from strength to strength and the easy money has been made. Unfortunately, I missed most of that, but this will be a significant Ni miner in the next three years. Or, be owned by BHP.


----------



## bk1 (27 November 2021)

I'm waiting for the next MRE before pulling the trigger. Certainly been a good run so far.
From Lowell Resource Fund in October: "_The Fund continued to switch some of its nickel exposure from Centaurus Metals to Azure Minerals_" 
I was surprised by this, but willing to wait and see.


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## Sean K (27 November 2021)

bk1 said:


> I'm waiting for the next MRE before pulling the trigger. Certainly been a good run so far.
> From Lowell Resource Fund in October: "_The Fund continued to switch some of its nickel exposure from Centaurus Metals to Azure Minerals_"
> I was surprised by this, but willing to wait and see.




Solid plan. LRT tries to invest at the beginning of the upward trend of the Lassonde Curve, and sells near the (theoretical) peak of discovery and development. I think CTM will peak at later development stage once further resources are defined and _should_ climb up to the $1.40 mark, where I'll exit. I'm just buying significant dips on this now. It will obviously be effected by a general market blow off, which I'm expecting, but that will just be another buying opportunity. Cash or leverage is going to be very nice to have in the next 12 months.


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2021)

Still on schedule to deliver the updated MRE 'imminently'. Just hoping that it clearly indicates the throughput and LOM can be increased a bit to perhaps 22,000Kpa and 15+yrs, for a start. Still room to grow to more than that with continued exploration success and adding in the Tigre discovery.


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## Sean K (9 December 2021)

CTM been going sideways for a few months but obvious diagonal upward trend line on the lows. Going to need something good to take it to all time highs. Hopefully the upgraded MRE does it, but some of that must be factored into the sp already, so will need to surprise to the upside probably. PON is probably a factor. Around six year highs but still nowhere near all time highs. If Ni goes back to $50k, watch out.


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## Sean K (10 December 2021)

Now in TH for MRE upgrade. Fingers crossed it exceeds expectations to push it into new territory. Not sure what is factored into the sp already, but probably a 20% increase in the last MRE. But, for the sake of the monthly comp I'm hoping for a 30+% increase. 

So perhaps something like 70Mt@0.96% for 670K Nickel, at a minimum.

Current numbers:


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## Sean K (12 December 2021)

Hopefully the MRE upgrade comes out before open in the am. I think it's TH until Tuesday, or until ann comes out, but I guess tmw.

Sprott raised their target to $1.65. I'll be happy with that for this months comp. They're only expecting an additional 5-10Mt on the current 58Mt resource, so hopefully CTM can surprise to the upside on that.

I daresay they'll come out with another report off the back of the MRE update.

(note: Sprott also major holder, so can you believe the numbers)


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## Sean K (13 December 2021)

I got my wish, 30% increase. So, double what Sprott were expecting. 

With continued extension drilling success, another MRE upgrade next year could well take it to 100Mt, extend LOM to 20 years and increase throughput to 3.5Mt pa +/- for up to 30K Ni pa.


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## mullokintyre (13 December 2021)

Question is , do I take the profits now or wait for the next  MRE upgrade?
If i sell now, can I reasonably expect it to fall before the next up leg?
What is the best risk/reward strategy??
Decisions, decisions.
Mick


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## Sean K (13 December 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Question is , do I take the profits now or wait for the next  MRE upgrade?
> If i sell now, can I reasonably expect it to fall before the next up leg?
> What is the best risk/reward strategy??
> Decisions, decisions.
> Mick




I'm just holding till it gets closer to that Sprott valuation.

Risk between now and then is general market sentiment and the price of Nickel.


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## mullokintyre (13 December 2021)

Well, it obviously was not enough for  Mr market.
Down 3%.
Might buy some more if it gets back near a buck.
Mick


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## Sean K (13 December 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Well, it obviously was not enough for  Mr market.
> Down 3%.
> Might buy some more if it gets back near a buck.
> Mick




LOL. Must have been baked in already. It's a crazy thing this stock market.


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## mullokintyre (13 December 2021)

maybe it might be that a lot of market players read your comments on ASF, and expected a 30% increase , so it may have been already baked in.
Mick


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## bk1 (13 December 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> What is the best risk/reward strategy??



This is the hardest part of the equation for me to resolve.
The MRE looks like a winner to me, there would be juniors in WA that would struggle to get 2 diamond rigs to a site never mind 13 of them.
And yet, we had a big volume day on 08 Dec to go with the last announcement, and today we are down 3% with the MRE.
I'm not willing to fight the market or a perceived Lassonde curve, taking profit imminently..


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## Sean K (13 December 2021)

I can't see CTM taking this to mining. I think a larger player will buy in once it's de-risked and shows clear potential to be a Tier 1 asset, which is not too far away. Maybe it's already there.

BHP are obviously after Ni and other battery metals and have seemingly just lost out in the bid for Noront, which was only going to be a 15K pa producer plus some other minerals. Twiggy wasn't going to sell his shares in this deal, so it doesn't look good. 

There's a big chance a couple of larger players will make a decision on CTM and hopefully there's an arm wrestle over it.


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## Sean K (13 December 2021)

bk1 said:


> I'm not willing to fight the market or a perceived Lassonde curve, taking profit imminently..




I think I might have picked up some of your shares today BK, cheers. This was one of those dips I thought I should buy as I still think this has further re-rating to go on likely future resource upgrades above Mr Market's perception. I think you bought it way earlier to me though, so well done.


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## bk1 (13 December 2021)

Not mine, @Sean K , waiting for an up day and sell into some strength. Not even sure i want to sell *all* of them, might keep a small amount in the event of a takeover in the Nickel space that everyone keeps talking about.


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## bk1 (14 December 2021)

Sprott Equity arguing for a higher NAV multiple on the back of the " market has missed the implications of last weeks engineering update"
Price Target of $2.50 now!
They are going large on this one, believing the market to be "asleep at the wheel" in relation to Centaurus.
I know they are into CTM for a chunk but that is a big jump in PT...


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## Sean K (14 December 2021)

bk1 said:


> Sprott Equity arguing for a higher NAV multiple on the back of the " market has missed the implications of last weeks engineering update"
> Price Target of $2.50 now!
> They are going large on this one, believing the market to be "asleep at the wheel" in relation to Centaurus.
> I know they are into CTM for a chunk but that is a big jump in PT...




Crikey!

Yes, they are a major holder, and every reason to be bullish, but they'd completely lose credibility if they were so far off. 

I should have added a zero to my top up yesty.


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## Sean K (16 December 2021)

So, IGO have just taken over WSA for $1.1b.

WSA's total resource is 70Mt @1.1% Ni for 758Kt contained Ni. 

Jaguar already contains 80Mt @.91% Ni for 730Kt and it's open everywhere.  

Still flying under the radar I'd say.

Hello BHP!


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## bk1 (16 December 2021)

Yes, but the mines WSA owns in Forrestania are some of the highest grading Nickel mines in the world.


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## Sean K (16 December 2021)

bk1 said:


> Yes, but the mines WSA owns in Forrestania are some of the highest grading Nickel mines in the world.




Yep, and it's operating, WA, and not Brazil. Although, I'm not sure if the district CTM are in should provide a major discount. Only if your mine is in a local village like Vale have been dealing with at Onca Puma. With CTM seemingly on the way to 100Mt for 1Mt Ni, open pit, sulphide, it's still under the radar. Even if Sprott are ramping it.


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## Sean K (17 December 2021)

I don't think she'll do it today, but general trend is pointing to ATHs at some stage. (touch head) Only has to get to half of the Sprott valuation and I'll be happy.


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## Sean K (19 December 2021)

I think this is still well under the radar and with the M&A action happening around the place, I think CTM is going to attract some attention.

EH even have a $1.50 target on it.

Not sure how to reconcile that with a $2.50 from Sprott, but I think you might know.


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## Sean K (20 December 2021)

Failing at ATHs of $1.18 again means that's firming up as some significant short term resistance - selling point for the big money. But, they should also be buying the dips on support with the ma's and that horizontal line, unless Mr Market just breaks everything down. Interesting close though, with after hours auction being bought up supporting my theory. Disappointed that my monthly comp numbers are being held back here. grrrr.


----------



## Sean K (30 December 2021)

I'm not sure if these secondary listings are actually good for the companies or not, but I think there's an assumption it is. Will see.


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## Sean K (4 January 2022)

Not sure how much drilling has been done over Xmas and when t o expect further results. Might be some time while they continue to work on the DFS also. Hopefully more good extension drilling and another MRE upgrade to enhance the mining peramiters.

Another analyst report I missed was from Argonaut. $1.79 target. They must have read my comments about the WSA/IGO tie up on 16 Dec. LOL. 

Currently, still in that ascending triangle with resistance at $1.18.


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## Sean K (6 January 2022)

There's been lots of selling above $1.13 so I don't expect $1.18 to go anytime real soon. Not sure what's going to push it over except for general market advance, the Tigre Deposit proved up, or perhaps another discovery. Or, maybe some more M&A taking place in the Ni sector.


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## mullokintyre (11 January 2022)

Market Players obviously hanging on your every word.
CTM up again to 52 week high at 1.19.
Be extremely good if it hold above it at the close.
Mick


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## bk1 (11 January 2022)

Up 10% so far on no obvious news, and as you say now at a 52WH.
I dont see any other Nickel juniors on the ASX getting the same push...


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## Sean K (11 January 2022)

I thought I'd jumped the gun by calling a breakout earlier today when it looked like it was clearly through, but then dropped, and climbed again. Hopefully closes strong. If it goes to form, it'll probably (hopefully) consolidate above $1.18 for a bit before the next leg.

Could be just Ni continuing to go up. There was also news of a Canadian Ni company doing a deal for off-take with Tesla today, which may have put a spotlight on CTM. These guys are on a clear path to production with not a lot of risk.


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## mullokintyre (11 January 2022)

Well, it not  only held 1.18. it shot right up to 1.275!
Up 15% for the day.
Guess those in the know  have heard something, maybe a little more drilling to flesh out that expanding MRE.
Mick


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## Sean K (12 January 2022)

On top of the Talon / Tesla news yesterday, BHP were also buying into a Nickel mine in Africa, so maybe it's take-off and M&A action that's pushed this up.


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## mullokintyre (12 January 2022)

Sold half my holding at 1.34.
A 105 % gain in half  a year is too good to pass up.
The rerst are now free carried.
Mick


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## Sean K (12 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Sold half my holding at 1.34.
> A 105 % gain in half  a year is too good to pass up.
> The rerst are now free carried.
> Mick




I was very late to this and have averaged around the $1 mark. So, I'll sell half when it gets to Sprott's valuation.  LOL Well, actually, I'm open ended on what to do with this as I'm not sure how big the resource is going to get, how high Ni is going to go, and who might try and take them over. So, general plan for me is to take some chips off the table if I think it goes a bit nuts, or buy the dips.

I'd really like to see some consolidation here above $1.18. It's run away from me a bit.


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## mullokintyre (12 January 2022)

Would be more than happy to buy in if it consolidated around the 1.21 mark or less.
Satisfies my  tendency to try to make small 10 to 15 percent takes on stocks as they meander.
Mick


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## bk1 (13 January 2022)

Nickel futures leapt overnight, and now early volume today for CTM.
I'm not sure that battery metals will meander in the first half of this year @mullokintyre


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## mullokintyre (13 January 2022)

bk1 said:


> Nickel futures leapt overnight, and now early volume today for CTM.
> I'm not sure that battery metals will meander in the first half of this year @mullokintyre



perhaps not, but more than happy with my profit.
Mick


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## Sean K (13 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Sold half my holding at 1.34.
> A 105 % gain in half  a year is too good to pass up.
> The rerst are now free carried.
> Mick




A 45% ish gain was enough for me to skim the pot.


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## Sean K (14 January 2022)

Nice timing to skim some cream. Now waiting for consolidation and potential downside action to some support. Unfortunately, that support is way down there. It's just unhealthy for good stocks to go running away and not establishing some levels of obvious support. As much fun as it is to see stocks pop, I just don't like the potential technical damage it can do.

In an ideal World, a flag appears.


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## mullokintyre (19 January 2022)

CTM in trading halt this morning sitting at 1.285.
Judging by the fall in the stock from last weeks 1.44, I would say that those in the know think they can buy it back cheaper.
perhaps a cap raise?
Mick


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## Sean K (19 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> CTM in trading halt this morning sitting at 1.285.
> Judging by the fall in the stock from last weeks 1.44, I would say that those in the know think they can buy it back cheaper.
> perhaps a cap raise?
> Mick




CR. I thought they had enough to get through the next 12 months of drilling... Maybe opportune given the run up in the price. Hopefully we get some cheap ones, but I doubt it.


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## Sean K (19 January 2022)

This is quite a discount to the current price although 10% ish is about what you'd think. I guess that flag pattern will fail and it'll drop to that support line. Although, maybe getting the cash will just be seen as de-risking the path to development. AFR article:


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## Sean K (21 January 2022)

CR details out. I suppose this was of course going to happen, I just didn't think it was coming around for a few months. Anywho, it de-risks the path to a BFS, past DFS. Probably all the way to getting finance for the capex. They're going to have to tap the market for $300-400m for capex depending on the final scale of the plant. More likely $400m+ I reckon. 

Just a shame it upset that beautiful breakout and set up on the chart side of things. Who knows what happens with the sp short term now, but should be quite a bit of support at the CR level which is also significant on the chart..


----------



## mullokintyre (21 January 2022)

Well, I guess it means I can buy back that half I sold at a significantly cheaper price.
All is not least.
Pity they didn't give the non instos and other non "significant" shareholders a chance at buying in at 1.16.
Mick


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## Sean K (21 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Well, I guess it means I can buy back that half I sold at a significantly cheaper price.
> All is not least.
> Pity they didn't give the non instos and other non "significant" shareholders a chance at buying in at 1.16.
> Mick




Nice moves Mick. I had to add some here too. Good long term opportunity.

One thing they are going to do with this cash is another 90,000m of drilling. If they continue to have the same success as they've had with adding Ni they should make the 100Mt @ about 1% for 1Mt Ni club by the end of the year and it be incorporated into the DFS. My crystal ball tells me a 25K pa for 20 year LOM.


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## bk1 (21 January 2022)

In strict observance of the Lassonde curve i sold my remaining parcel of CTM.
I should perhaps have seen this CR coming earlier in the face of the macro Nickel supply and demand picture, but i've learnt plenty and made good profit.
Onward to the next exploration opportunity...


----------



## Sean K (21 January 2022)

bk1 said:


> In strict observance of the Lassonde curve i sold my remaining parcel of CTM.
> I should perhaps have seen this CR coming earlier in the face of the macro Nickel supply and demand picture, but i've learnt plenty and made good profit.
> Onward to the next exploration opportunity...




Where do you think we are on the curve bk1? I'd say most likely close to the top of Discovery as they are still defining resources but also starting DFS, so there could be an argument it's over the hump going into the Orphan Period / Feasibility. Since they're drilling another 90Km this year, and could add another 30% to the resource, I'm leaning towards left side of the first hump, maybe 80% up. So, a bit to go for me.


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## bk1 (21 January 2022)

The start of DFS in my opinion. I know they have committed, or intend, to a huge drill program, but the slope or gradient of the curve will be shallower to my mind. Take longer to realise gains...

I had an entry and an exit point *before* i committed money.
At one point it, CTM, was 5% of my portfolio, which is my limit for a junior explorer.
I note that Kerry Harmanis remains on the share register but Lowell exited last month.


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## Sean K (25 January 2022)

CTM telegraphing a change in the mining parameters in the DFS for later this year, just depends by how much I suppose and of course related to extension and exploration success. Going to be a huge year with 11 diamonds rigs turning. This correction and potential future market weakness represents longer term opportunity.


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## Sean K (26 January 2022)

News that Green Twiggs is buying up Western Areas to potentially block the IGO takeover makes me more sure that CTM will be taken over at some stage. The run to green energy / battery metals by the majors and major investors doesn't seem to be stopping any time soon.

Not sure what the risks are with this except it's in the general vicinity of Onca Puma and Vale have had some local issues there. Maybe there's some local community risk I'm not aware of or have missed in my research. Perhaps that's why they've been buying up the land around the project. Otherwise, this is going to be producing, with probable further resource upgrades this year, more than 25K Ni pa for 15 years plus.


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## Sean K (27 January 2022)

Some good extension drilling here and infill de-risking. On the way to 100Mt@1% ish for 1Mt contained Ni, which would be a very nice target to meet this year for the DFS.

Just not sure if they're going to take this to production or be taken out. I think the CR means they might think they're going to mine it themselves.


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## Sean K (27 January 2022)

bk1 said:


> The start of DFS in my opinion. I know they have committed, or intend, to a huge drill program, but the slope or gradient of the curve will be shallower to my mind. Take longer to realise gains...
> 
> I had an entry and an exit point *before* i committed money.
> At one point it, CTM, was 5% of my portfolio, which is my limit for a junior explorer.
> I note that Kerry Harmanis remains on the share register but Lowell exited last month.




Yes, start of DFS, but still in a major part of discovery still ongoing. With another 90Km of drilling this year they could end up with anything.


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## Sean K (7 February 2022)

Well, after the break up for no apparent reason and then smashed down to the CR price it's slightly recovered and back on track, hopefully. A new line of support has been formed, hopefully that path continues.

Should be a big news year with all that drilling and another MRE upgrade.


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## Sean K (16 February 2022)

Seems like every man and his dog is going to the RIU Explorers Conference in Freo this month. Wish I could have gone.

CTM's presentation here.

Highlights slide below.

I'm focussed on *Project Scope* bullet point. I want 100Mt@1% for 1Mt (+/-) Ni this year for 25ktpa over 15 years +.


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## Sean K (20 February 2022)

New note from Sprott after Ausenco appointed to lead the DFS. No change to valuation of $2.60 - more than double current SP.

Hoping for some more significant extension and exploration success near Jaguar to change the mining parameters upwards and therefore valuation.


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## Sean K (2 March 2022)

Must be due some drill results with 14 rigs on site after re-starting drilling post Xmas. Still tracking the upward diagonal support since Jul/Aug 21 nicely with healthy consolidation stages on the way up. Nickel price is probably helping a tad.


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## Sean K (7 March 2022)

This sounds like good news. Didn't realise Brazil had such a scheme. Must be good for financing the project which is not that far away.


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## Sean K (9 March 2022)

Might be a good day to be a Ni holder and a good day to release some good results. Some good extension drilling at Jaguar. Next MRE in Q3 should put them closer to 90Mt for 800Kt Ni at this rate.


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## Sean K (11 March 2022)

New note from Sprott on the back of the extension drilling results above. Target unchanged at $2.60 which is double the current MC, so predicting a $1b company. Check the justification on this price with the peer comparison on how much nickel CTM have to EV. Australian miners are 10x more expensive. Or, CTM could go up 10x I suppose. A $5b company? Maybe not.


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## Sean K (30 March 2022)

This is a beautiful thing.

MC approaching $600m, still half Sprott's ramp. Site visit report below.


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## mullokintyre (30 March 2022)

ok thats it. I'm all out.
Been a great run, but I need a big chunk of cash  to install  12kw of solar panels on the roof, as well as a RFX flow battery and a EV charger.
Have made some pretty good profits out of trading this one, and my thanks to Sean k and  Bk1 for first putting me on to it.
Will most likely triple in value in a very short time now that I am out.
Good luck  punters.
Mick


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## Dona Ferentes (31 March 2022)

*Any junior miners you like that most people (probably) haven’t heard of? **



> One that we are really excited about is the nickel sulphide developer Centaurus Metals. The company is developing the Jaguar nickel sulphide project in Brazil. The project is targeting annual nickel production of over 20,000 tonnes per annum with a mine life of over 15 years. Capital expenditure is estimated to be just over $400 million. It is located in an established mining region, supported by low-cost hydroelectric power, and it has good availability of labour.



- from _Argonaut’s Natural Resources Fund.

*....... clearly, doesn't apply to ASM_

but is it enough to put it in April comp especially as it is nearing an all-time high and, importantly, Mick has bailed?


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## Sean K (4 April 2022)

Unusual volume on Friday. Almost double previous record. Interesting.


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## mullokintyre (4 April 2022)

Its all the punters loading up now that I am out.
Mick


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## Sean K (19 April 2022)

Might not be long before Sprott's target is hit at this rate. There must be a decent pause and healthy correction / sideways consolidation at some point.


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## Sean K (27 April 2022)

Blood on the streets and there's only a few things green. This is great for those who have been on the sidelines and willing to top up on longer term fundamental plays. CTM has a history of advance, retreat, repeat to higher levels over the past 2 years. Still way off Sprott's longer term price target identified previously. But, with talk of commodities topping out after crazy increases due to geopolitics and bad trading, maybe there's a longer term pause. Maybe not. Maybe this is just a shake out of short term players. The 200dma and diagonal trend _should_ be support.


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## Sean K (16 May 2022)

CTM has been smashed the past couple of weeks, beaten back down to a dollar ish with metal prices hammered recently. Zn, Sn, Ni, Cu, Pb, etc all off massively the past month. Maybe a correction overdue after the previous 12 months run up in prices.

Good infill results out for CTM, de-risking the project. Would really like to see further extension drilling success though to push it towards the 1m contained Ni.

MC back under $500m. 730K contained Ni @ $27K a ton = about $20b in the ground.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 May 2022)

Well, someone just spent over 4 Big Ones on them at the open. I wonder if the gap will be filled.






gg


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## Sean K (18 May 2022)

Sprott updated research note on the above results here.


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## mullokintyre (23 June 2022)

Back into CTM this morning on a partly filled order.
Will accumulate at anything around 92 or 93.
Mick


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## Sean K (23 June 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Back into CTM this morning on a partly filled order.
> Will accumulate at anything around 92 or 93.
> Mick



This _should_ be one of the explorers / developers to spring back once the blood is dry. Not sure if it's dry yet. Longer term, nickel is still going to be a much in demand metal. Much like copper.


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## Sean K (20 July 2022)

Some good step out results here. Should bode well for another significant MRE upgrade. Already one of the biggest deposits outside the majors. I'd be surprised if a major doesn't come sniffing around really. BHP might want to tack on another large Ni deposit. Maybe even OZL want to expand their Ni holdings and they work in the region already. With so much cash in the bank they should come out of this dip/recession period strongly.


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## Sean K (27 July 2022)

DFS being put back three months is disappointing, but otherwise it's all sounding very good for an MRE upgrade and potential higher throughput for final mining numbers. Be interesting to see what the additional Cu, Zn and Co provides.


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## Sean K (29 July 2022)

Sprott maintain their $2.60 target even after the significant drill results above. They note it's because they're not sure how much the ROM will improve over previous guestimates. With it turning into one giant pit and significantly more Ni tonnage they've surely got to increase the mill throughput to closer to 3Mtpa which should lift the valuation further. Will have to wait on the DFS I guess.


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## Sean K (6 August 2022)

At D&D. Aiming for 1Mt contained Ni. I don't think they'll be there at the next MRE but maybe the one after.


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## Sean K (1 September 2022)

CTM has appointed someone to advise on their debt financing to make sure the Q1 23 DFS lines up for the banks.

New research note from Argonaut who raise their target a bit to $1.87. In the guts of their report they put an NPV on Jaguar of about $1.1b and $2.57 a share, less risk (-25%), exploration and dilution. I think they're putting too much risk onto it, even though it's not yet started construction. I think the risk is to the upside with the price of Ni in the future more likely to be higher in 5+years than current.


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## Miner (6 October 2022)

started looking at CTM.
Not sure to believe on various reports including today's one 


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02577932-6A1113736?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

and two days back one :


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02575085-6A1112386?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

or this one - directors sold out existing shares and converted options at juicy prices


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02512444-6A1087635?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

On technical ground after getting excited on the above, the following chart enhanced my confusion


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## mullokintyre (6 October 2022)

Miner said:


> started looking at CTM.
> Not sure to believe on various reports including today's one
> 
> 
> ...



Believe the market.
Up 10% today.
The market is always right.
Mick


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## mullokintyre (6 October 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Believe the market.
> Up 10% today.
> The market is always right.
> Mick



Oops, got my maths wrong, should read 0.1% today.
That's what ya get for being smart.
Mick


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## Sean K (10 October 2022)

Latest update from Sprott.

disappointed in the delays here…


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## Sean K (10 November 2022)

This is wayyyy better than expected. I was going to be very happy with just a 10% bump on the tonnage. Should be on the radar for majors with these numbers.


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## Sean K (10 November 2022)

Just an idea of the basic value of the contained metal in this deposit. 938k tonnes at $23k a ton for Ni = $21.5b. In gold equivalent terms that's a 12.6m OzAu deposit. Bigger than DEG. DEG MC is $1.8b, CTM is $415m. Another one to compare it to is CHN's Gonneville which has 2mt NiEq. So, double CTM. MC, $1.7b. CTM should be at least half that valuation, say $800m, or double the current SP.


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## Sean K (11 November 2022)

Sprott out ramping CTM overnight. Increased their target by 50c to $3.10. I'm not sure why this is still trading at these prices when the writing seems on the wall. This is going to have a NPV well over $2b. 1xNAV it will be quadruple ++ current EV, less dilution for capex.


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## Sean K (11 November 2022)

I think the reason this is flying under the radar, or as Sprott say 'the market is asleep at the wheel' on this is that it's nickel in Brazil and not gold in Australian. Imagine a gold explorer in Australia sitting on 12.3m ounces at 3.6g/t? It'd have a MC of about $2b. Just sayin...


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## Sean K (16 November 2022)

CTM being rightly re-rated after the resource upgrade which was better than expected. I think they can still add more nickel to this deposit over the next year or so as they complete development studies. It's still well open, especially at depth, where other deposits in this region go very deep. Sitting on a 20kpa for 20+ years already. Maybe they could even increase the mill size for extra output. Tier 1 asset.


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## mullokintyre (29 December 2022)

My final pick for the 2023 full year comp.
 Zinc will be in demand in the massive increase in EV battery usage.
CTM is looking at a world class deposit, good management, and I expect big things forom this one.
Mick


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## Sean K (1 January 2023)

mullokintyre said:


> My final pick for the 2023 full year comp.
> Zinc will be in demand in the massive increase in EV battery usage.
> CTM is looking at a world class deposit, good management, and I expect big things forom this one.
> Mick




I've picked this too, I think that's allowed in this comp. 

But, my history in the tipping comps is so poor I should not be picking anything I actually own and this is my largest stock holding.


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## Miner (1 January 2023)

Sean K said:


> I've picked this too, I think that's allowed in this comp.
> 
> But, my history in the tipping comps is so poor I should not be picking anything I actually own and this is my largest stock holding.



@Sean K  happy new year!
Did I read correctly 😳  that your largest holding is Centaurus


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## Sean K (1 January 2023)

Miner said:


> @Sean K  happy new year!
> Did I read correctly 😳  that your largest holding is Centaurus




Yes, closely followed by IOZ. Much more in cash and real estate not on this chart.


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## Sean K (3 January 2023)

Not sure what the catalyst for this is over the next few months until the DFS comes out around mid year. Maybe some significant extension drill results, or off take MOUs, or takeover offer. Not sure if that will happen until the DFS is out. 

Will be interesting to see what price assumptions they plug into the model. The SS was done on $7.50/lb but the current price is over $13/lb. By their own numbers at $10/lb Jaguar has an NPV of $2.2b. At $12/lb that must be over $2.5b. Current MC under $500m. Not sure what sort of a discount to NPV they should be trading at at this stage but 25% seems low on the surface of it. Hence why I've picked it for this years comp and it's my largest holding.  

Not sure where they can go wrong from here. Political unrest in their region, depression, Indonesia ramps up Ni production too much, Ni price crashes... 

Seems to have been de-risken enough for it to be on a radar of the majors.


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## Miner (3 January 2023)

Thanks SC.
To add in your positive note,their NPV and IRR is outstanding.
Regards


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