# BIR - BIR Financial



## YOUNG_TRADER (12 June 2007)

I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.

This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate *$75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m *

It has a largish low scal magnetite deposit,

We can expect a JORC in 1-2weeks

With a PFS By start of JULY,

I am seeking to get a discussion going to assess whether my assements of the company are reasonable
*
At 25c Current Mkt Cap = $21m
An EBIT of $75m a yr for 30yrs = NPV $1Billion+ (EBIT of $2.25Billion)
So I'd say once PFS is out I'd expect a mkt cap of $50m minimum = 60c*


Advantages
- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
- TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight
- Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options   instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit 
- Mkt cap tiny vs NPV
- Backed by Martin Place
- Pig Iron in high demand, much higher than magnetite ore as its a value added product
- Japanese Steel firm Kobe already taking Iron Ore samples, they could easily underwrite the development of Yogi project


Disadvantages
- Cap Ex = $350m+


It all looks good but I want to hear some others thoughts and feedback,

I found most of my info on the companies web 
Project- http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html
Top 20 (old) - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Management - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/directors.html

And also recent announcements



p.s. DYOR!


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## greggy (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.
> 
> This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate *$75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m *
> 
> ...



Hi YT,

I recently looked at this overlooked stock which is at the top of my watch list.  Its arguably the cheapest iron ore spec listed on the ASX.  It has experienced management and is tightly held.  If all goes well, this stock has strong potential to be a multi-bagger.  The iron ore sector is certainly hot at present. Thanks for the info.
DYOR


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## stoxclimber (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*

I have a number of questions, some of which you might not be able to answer straight away but I'll pose them anyway:


Where did the EBIT of $75mm come from? (What is the implict metal price, and how realistic are the companies cost assumptions vis-a-vis current producers)
Why is this a constant EBIT and not ranging with inflation?
How is the capex getting financed?
How realistic is this mine cost vis-a-vis current mine developments?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*

I have exams so I don't have alot of time to answer questions,

Go see the companies web page and you'll see the scoping study which has the imput costs etc etc

I found most of my info on the companies web 
Project- http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html

Also read the ann's

and finally speak to the company management, they are really top notch if your unsure,

But put it this way I see FWL as having potential to have a mkt cap of at least $50m =  60c if the PFS confirms what I estimate it will,

They aim to produce 500kt's Pig Iron for 20yrs generating an EBIT of $165/t (500 x $165 = $82.5m I rounded down to $75m)

Note management believe deposit could be 2-3x the intial expected 75Mt@25%Fe,

Also note the 25% Fe is not an issue for Pig Iron (very different to  YML type play which is looking to DSO the Heamatite Ore because that requires grades of 60% Fe+) also the Ore is apparantly ideal for benefication etc

Re financing, look at how many Chinese and Japanese steel firms are fudning projects AXO, MIS, MGX, TFE, AGO, CFE, ARH, GRR, IDO, then also realise the fact that Japans huge Kobe steel has already asked for sample ore from FWL, if the PFS stacks up it'll only be a matter of time

I think the JORC will cause a semi re-rating and the PFS should cause the full re-rating,

For a copmarable Magentite plays see 
- IDO Mkt Cap $100m 70% of a large 600Mt@10%Fe Iron Sands project CAP Ex $750m NPV $500m Pig Iron project, Iron Sands so techinacally more challenging, also in PNG

- GRR Mkt Cap $200m, 458Mt@37%Fe, excellent grade but **** Infrastrucutre, deposit is in the middle of nowhere, Cap Ex will be $1Billion and will need Power Station, Slurry pipe to transport Ore, New Port constructed etc etc

- AXO Mkt Cap $100m, FerroVandium operation 100Mt@45%Fe + 0.63% Vanadium, Cap Ex $500m NPV $300m


Clearly FWL's biggest adnvantage is its location location location, combined with its mkt cap, you have an undiscovered Iron Ore/Pig Iron play

At 20c its mkt cap was $10m
At 25c its $14m or $21m if the opies are exercised still cheap I would have thought.

Compare this to others and then let me know your thoughts, 

I'll do follow up posts on Wednesday thursday,

Also make sure you thoroughly read their web page to get all the info you need!


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## kgee (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*

magnetite and good location 
I couldn't find where they said they expect having 2-3 times more than their (expected)75mt ore body- was that your own research?

A 75mt deposit divide by 2.4 mt a year  gives a 30 year mine life

Curious as to why in the samples they included silica and phosphorous but not sulphur....any ideas why that would be? wouldn't this be a major cost inclusion for benefication?? surely a pfs should include that or does that wait down the line to bfs?


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## Fool (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*

Does anyone have access to the top 20 shareholders?

It would be interesting to see who is holding them, because there is currently very little amount of shares/options on offer:

FYLO Sell side:
0.120 50,000   1 
0.130 35,000   1 
0.140 75,000   1 
0.150 220,000   3 
0.180 15,100   1 

$56,000 would see FYLO with no sell orders leftover.

FYL has a few more:
0.290 11,700   1 
0.340 37,885   1 
0.350 20,000   2 
0.400 40,000   1 
0.460 50,000   1 

but even this only equates to $62,000.


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## Sean K (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*

"Does anyone have access to the top 20 shareholders?

It would be interesting to see who is holding them, because there is currently very little amount of shares/options on offer:

FYLO Sell side:
0.120 50,000   1 
0.130 35,000   1 
0.140 75,000   1 
0.150 220,000   3 
0.180 15,100   1 

$56,000 would see FYLO with no sell orders leftover.

FYL has a few more:
0.290 11,700   1 
0.340 37,885   1 
0.350 20,000   2 
0.400 40,000   1 
0.460 50,000   1 

but even this only equates to $62,000"


Go to this link. Wasn't really that hard to find. 

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html


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## heads up (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

as this is a magnetite project, i understand that they have to be developed to a significant scale to warrant investment? or is the pig iron production different?
  you seem to imply,YT, that this will not be a problem.
  2.4Mt pa is this on the low side? i mean should production not be higher to match the investment required?


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## Pommiegranite (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*

Hello friends ,

The most important factor as to whether FWL will realise their goals is in the technology they end up using.

FWL have just sent samples to Japan to see if they are suitable for FASTMET ®, Corex, Circofer and a *new emerging technology, ITmk3 ®.*

Is there anyone out there who knows about these processes first hand?(especially ITmk3)?

I found these links, but as I'm not in the industry, its over my head.

I found *this* and *this* relating to Kobe steel's ITmk3 technolgoy, which you may find useful.


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## Fool (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*



Pommiegranite said:


> Hello friends ,
> 
> The most important factor as to whether FWL will realise their goals is in the technology they end up using.
> 
> ...




Hey not sure if you have seen the info on their site

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html#magnetite

hope it helps.


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## Pommiegranite (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thanks Fool...I read through the info on their website....very informative....and not surprinsingly bullish as it is their own website.

However, I was also looking for another perspective on this technology as its maketed as new wave/cutting edge.

Might have to google to see if there are any AMFs (Aussie Mining Forums)


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## nomore4s (12 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Good work yet again YT.
Been busy with work so haven't had much time to do much research yet but it all looks pretty promising so far.
The location of the project is a real plus, close to infrastructure - towns, ports, roads, gas.
Management seem to be on the ball, look to have good solid plans and contingency plans in place and seem to be very thorough.
Pig Iron in high demand, easy to store and transport.

Info from scoping study below, some good points/info:
Key findings of the Scoping Study into the Yalgoo Iron Project are:

• *That currently there are no fatal flaws in the planned Project. It further notes that there are no unusual project issues identified at this time that would delay or prevent the normal process of securing government approvals*.
• *Despite increases in both capital and operating cost estimates (detailed below), the overall project economics remain robust due to an increase in the expected long term average merchant pig iron prices.*
• Four possible technology options for the production of merchant pig iron have been identified as suitable for further evaluation during the Pre-feasibility Study phase.
• *Total capital costs for the Project have been increased from A$330M to A$388.5M (which includes a 15% contingency)* as a result of capital cost increases brought on by the resources boom in Western Australia.
• The delivered price of natural gas to the Project is expected to be nearly twice that originally anticipated as a result of the boom in the liquefied natural gas market.
• The additional capital and operating cost has been offset by the higher anticipated average sales revenue for merchant pig iron. The long term average price assumption used in the Scoping Study remains conservative at *approximately A$70.00/t below current merchant pig iron prices in Asia*.
• *The project has potential for a strong operating surplus (EBITDA) of approximately A$155.40 per tonne of merchant pig iron*.
• The market for scrap iron alternates, such as merchant pig iron, and the resultant demand is continuing to grow and the shortfall in quality feed stock for the electric arc furnace market worldwide is expected to continue to influence merchant pig iron prices over the next 5 to 10 years.

Looks to be very tightly held atm, any sort of volume will push the price up rapidly as the chart shows. Steady increase of volume over the last 2 weeks or so with today very high for this stock.


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## nomore4s (13 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

As per my post above.

*Cap Ex* $390m-$400m(with allowances)

(EBITDA) of approximately A$155.40 per tonne of merchant pig iron, x 500,000tpa target as per website = $150 x 500,000 = $75mil per year as per YTs post.

Not sure about where the money will come from for cap ex at this stage but the first hurdle would be the 15.5mil for the BFS as per below:
"Ferrowest intends, subject to finance, to invest approximately $15.5 million in the preparation of a Bankable Feasibility Study for the Yalgoo Iron Project."


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## nomore4s (13 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*



Pommiegranite said:


> Hello friends ,
> 
> The most important factor as to whether FWL will realise their goals is in the technology they end up using.
> 
> ...




Pommie not sure what technology they use will be the most important thing about whether they achieve thier goals. They currently have a number of options open to them and management appear to have taken steps to make sure they have a back up plan if the new process is not ready or unable to be used by FWL.
While the new ITmk3 ® Process does look to have a number of advantages I don't think that management is betting all of its chips on it, as they have stated that it may not be available to the Company in the project's development time frame.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (13 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hmm another large sell order!

I had a friend email me about it,

Very interesting, yesterday when stock was about to break a 500k sell order came on at 26c but it got cleared, today it looked like it would break up strong and another order appears 450k at 31c

Want my opinion?

As Martin Place securities hold about 5m shares (through various top 20 accounts) and 8m options (underwriterrs), I think they are trying to cap the stock to allow clients to get on board, 

Look at it like this, they try and cap the stock at 31c, if someone takes out there order, no biggie they can convert 450k worth of opies at 25c +4c cost = 29c so they're actually up 2c

So I think there is manipulation going on, you don't sell like that i your serious, be interested to see if there are any opie conversions soon

Thoughts?


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## questionall_42 (13 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

OK. Mentitoned yesterday on ASF by YT; today it runs.  

Up to 35c on vol of 800,000, which will place it as the biggest trading in the life of FWL... ...

No selling depth... ... small sells appearing; day traders cashing out in the first hour?

First time I have seen a stock run like this... ... quite beautiful really.  shame i am not in.

Enjoy the ride.


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## prawn_86 (13 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

yeh your on the money again YT.

even in amongst exams you still pull out winners like this for everyone.

well done!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (13 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

At 35c the mkt cap = $30m (includes $7.5m in cash from options)

So its by no means expensive,

With the JORC due out in the next 2 weeks and then the PFS by first week of July interesting times lie ahead,

My guess is PFS will show a net profit of $40m - $50m a yr for 20-30yrs to begin within and the only way from there will be up IMO, 

To begin with the JORC should be 75Mt@25%Fe = 30yrs mine life
But it could be 2-3 times as big = 60yrs - 90yrs mine life or ramp up production!



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.
> 
> This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate *$75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m *
> 
> ...


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## mick2006 (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

for all followers of FWL this is an article from todays Australian newspaper.


Ferrowest is the pig end of town

June 13, 2007 

WHO are these Ferrowest supporters?
And why is there suddenly a jump in the share price and the amount of securities being traded? 

It can't be investors using Ferrowest as a tax loss before the end of June because the share price has moved to a record high. 

And there is also a distinct lack of news from the company which might explain the sudden interest in the $20 million company. 

Or is it just that people are cottoning on to the potential of the West Australian pig iron hopeful which is on the verge of delivering its first JORC resource for its Yalgoo project? 

Either way, Ferrowest shares have jumped nearly 50 per cent in the past two days in what is largely a very tight share register. 

According to the Daily Assay's Bloomberg terminal, the top five shareholders - directors Graeme Johnston, Barry Wyatt, Phil Evers, chairman Rob Duffin and managing director Brett Manning - hold 30 per cent of all capital. 

But the top 20 shareholders own between 70 and 80 per cent of the stock, so that makes the sell orders very thin as the shares march higher. Biggest shareholder is Comet Resources with a stake around 16 per cent. 

Ferrowest are looking at a 500,000 tonnes per annum, 20-year, pig iron project at its Yalgo project about 230km east of the port of Geraldton and nearby key infrastructure. Interestingly, the ground was previously held by Comet who went looking for gold and instead discovered magnetite. 

Latest drill results from the Yogi deposit at Yalgoo showed week average magnetite iron grades of around 25 per cent as the company advances its pre-feasibility study. Sometime this month Ferrowest will also send its first 80 kilogram concentrate sample to Japan where Kobe Metals' subsidiary Midrex will test for pig iron potential using the ITmk3 technology favoured by Ferrowest. 
Pig iron is still hot property as an alternative to scrap iron at feed electric arc furnaces and analysts reckon that demand will grow by 4.5 per cent, each year, up until 2011 at least when Ferrowest could be in production. Value adding in the WA iron ore industry hasn't had much success in the past, think of BHP Billiton's $2 billion hot briquetted flop. 

A bankable feasibility study for Yalgoo is slated for December next year before financing, construction and production in January 2011. 

But the calculations for revenue are compelling, even though some liberties are taken. 

On the company's own forecasts, the MPI could be worth $US423 a tonne by January 2011 and production margins will be around $US155 a tonne. 

So at capacity, that's worth $US77.5m for the company in the first year. Assuming prices stay around that mark for the next two decades (highly unlikely) Yalgoo is worth $US1.55 billion. 

Obviously there are a lot of assumptions in that calculation - a long-term offtake buyer is found, Midrex's ITmk3 technology to turn the MPI into nuggets is successful, the steel boom continues in Asia and so on. 

But the prospects are enough for Martin Place Securities, the same broker behind the now infamous $25-a-share call on Cudeco, to rate Ferrowest as a long-term speculative buy. And no, Martin Place have not put a price forecast on it. 

According to Ferrowest managing director Brett Manning, the company has pretty much been talking to potential partners ever since the company listed in July last year. 

“There's nothing that's come to a point yet,” he said. 

“We are still on track for a JORC resource sometime this month, maybe that's why there has suddenly been a lot of interest. It's always going to take longer (to be in production) than a dig and ship operation when you value-add a project.” 

“There hasn't been a lot of broker interest to date, people like the story but they are in wait-and-see mode.” 

“What we are looking at is very strong margins and a low cost, high value operation.” 

Forget Pig Iron Bob, we could one day see Pig Iron Brett.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

lol, the article pretty much sums my research and I ain't no investigatory journalist (pun from Zoolander!)

Mick do you have a link for that article?

I'm amazed at the lack of interest today though given that the article pretty much sumed up my sentiments,

Anyway note that the EBIT is $77.5m US thats $90m AUD p.a., I wonder how the mkt will react to a PFS that announces $90m p.a. for 30yrs in EBITDA!

But the calculations for revenue are compelling, even though some liberties are taken. 

On the company's own forecasts, the MPI could be worth $US423 a tonne by January 2011 and production margins will be around $US155 a tonne. 

So at capacity, that's worth *$US77.5m *for the company in the first year. Assuming prices stay around that mark for the next two decades (highly unlikely) *Yalgoo is worth $US1.55 billion. *

*Obviously there are a lot of assumptions in that calculation* - a long-term offtake buyer is found, Midrex's ITmk3 technology to turn the MPI into nuggets is successful, the steel boom continues in Asia and so on. 

But the prospects are enough for Martin Place Securities, the same broker behind the now infamous $25-a-share call on Cudeco, to rate Ferrowest as a long-term speculative buy. And no, Martin Place have not put a price forecast on it.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thought I might do a comparison of FWL against 3 others, AXO, IDO and GRR


*FWL*
*Share Structure* 55m shares + 30m 25c 1/6/2010 Options
Mkt Cap  @*35c* = *$19.25m *undiluted or *$29.75m *fully diluted 

*Project*
NPV = *$1 Billion *based on EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs

CAP EX = *$330m* including a 20% blow out

Infrastructure = *Excellent* on the main highway to the main Gerladton Port, major gas pipeline runs through the deposit, town of Yalgoo only 14kms down the major highway

Ore = *Good* although low grade, its coarse and testing has shown "This sample produced a very good iron recovery coupled with a low silica return at a coarse (and therefore cost effective) grind size"


*AXO*
*Share Structure* 72m shares + 11m 20c 20/10/2007 + 16m in the money unlisted opies

Mkt Cap  @*90c* = *$65m *undiluted or *$90m *fully diluted 

*Project*
NPV = *$500m* Ferro Vanadium production

CAP EX = *$500m* 

Infrastructure = *Avg* requires alot of Infra

Ore = *Good* for Vanadium production, but unsure how easy it will be to produce Ferro Vandium 



*IDO*
*Share Structure* 80m shares

Mkt Cap  @*$1.25c* = *$100m *fully diluted 

*Project* 70% Only!!
NPV = *$800m* Pig Iron like FWL!

CAP EX = *$750m* 

Infrastructure = *Poor* Its in Indonesia, and given huge Cap Ex I'd say Poor!

Ore = *Poor* Its an Iron SANDS deposit grading 10% Fe so will be difficult IMO to beneficate etc



*GRR*
*Share Structure* 110m shares

Mkt Cap  @*$2.10* = *$240m *fully diluted 

*Project*70% Only!!
NPV = *Could be huge $2Billion ?* Iron Pelletss

CAP EX = *$1.5Billion* 

Infrastructure = *Poor* needs to build power plant, then build power lines, needs to build a slurry pipe line that goes 100kms, needs to dredge the port to make it deep water etc, clearly alot of work here, but rewards could be exceptional

Ore = *Excellent* for Iron Pellet production, the high grade ore keeps operating costs down 




So the point I'm trying to make, is aguably GRR is the most advanced and most likely to get into production the soonest, IDO seems risky and requires a large CAP EX, AXO seems cheap when compared to PMA and GRR but I don't know what the operationl risk is with beneficating Ferro Vanadium


*Bottom line at $20m FWL is wayyy to cheap! even $30m fully diluted is too cheap, this peer comparison would suggest $50m to begin with and then eventually up to $100m as the project risk reduced*


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## R0n1n (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

spotted this on the ASX. Looks like the ASX guys are watching FWL very carefully.. 
which is good. This one is worth watching carefully, like others have said...


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## Fool (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



R0n1n said:


> spotted this on the ASX. Looks like the ASX guys are watching FWL very carefully..
> which is good. This one is worth watching carefully, like others have said...




While I agree with FWL is worth watching closely... the ASX send those letters for every stock that hasn't had a price sensitive announcement as fluctuated a significant amount.

In other words, that ann is nothing special


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## Caliente (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I've been watching FWL pretty carefully as well since it was about 26/26.5 . wondering whether to go the heads or op route and then it exploded 

IMO the options are a bit wild on the premium side despite their long life, so gone with the heads at 30 even for now.


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## Fool (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Caliente said:


> I've been watching FWL pretty carefully as well since it was about 26/26.5 . wondering whether to go the heads or op route and then it exploded
> 
> IMO the options are a bit wild on the premium side despite their long life, so gone with the heads at 30 even for now.




I like options because you generally can get a dickload more of them then you can the heads (for the same money).

Specially if the heads are trading well below the exercise price.

Hard call if the expiry is close, but this one is not til November, plenty of time for the head to go somewhere.


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## Caliente (14 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I agree fool! But the option offer was 18 cents opposed to 30 on the head.

Thats 67% leverage in exchange for a 43% premium (18+25).

I like the heads for now, if the equation changes, I'll swap over to the options. I feel the recent rise to 40 was a hotcopper false-start/.

With the JORC due in a few weeks this one should be massive. 

A growth hold story in iron ore for me.

My hold from the big players basket would be MMX/.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi guys, just attaching an image of Ferrowest's Yalgoo/Yogi project's location and infrastructure, 

Note the following:
1. The fact that the main Geraldton - Mount Magnet Highway runs straight through FWL's Yogi project straight to the Port of Geraldton. So we can just Truck the Ore!

2. The main Mid West Gas pipe line also running straight through the project, easy energy source!

3. The close proximity to the town of Yalgoo = Lots of exisiting infrastructure, airstrip, hospital, fire, ambulance etc etc as well as a large mining work force!


 I hope the image works,


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## Sprinter79 (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Last time I was up that way, i dislocated my knee.... The drive back to Perth was not pleasant at all hahaha


So many memories :


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## YOUNG_TRADER (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Guys, I went to a bit of effort to do this comparison (15mins) I'd appreaciate some feedback or thoughts, look at the comparisons, is my assumption of a starting mkt cap of $50m reasonable? If not why? Can anyone find an Iron Ore producer play with a possible NPV of $1Billion and a Mkt Cap of $20m (undiluted) ? ? ?



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Thought I might do a comparison of FWL against 3 others, AXO, IDO and GRR
> 
> 
> *FWL*
> ...


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## vert (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hi yt, looks like another great prospect your on to here, one issue that they will have to deal with is carting the ore. they wont be able to just truck the ore in to gero. alanah mctiernin is currently getting other mid-west iron ore plays of the roads and on to rail. they maybe alowded to truck to mullewa then rail to gero.
will do some more research tomorrow on the other plays locations and where proposed rail lines might be going, bit of luck and a rail line might go straight past them.


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## Caliente (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

with regards to trucking the ore, many iron ore companies are doing/planning to do it already, so it is very feasible. We're looking at a 2.5/3 hour haulage, not bad at all.

The company is also interested in haulage to Mullewa + rail ala Mount Gibson. (MGX) is using the Mullewa-Geraldton line right now. 

As *far as I am aware *they don't have exclusive rights to it either, so they're not going to be sh*t-kicking around like BHP.

The real kicker is this...

The ITmk3 Process could provide mining companies with an attractive alternative for mineral processing in supplying a value-added product in the form of iron nuggets. Consisting of 96% to 98% iron and 2% to 4% carbon, the iron nuggets are *50% lighter and 90% more compact than iron ore, thus reducing shipping costs.*

Note this was written in like 2003, itmk3 *works* - with plants achieving continuous production to the tune of multiple tonnes of virtually identical to blast furnace quality iron nuggets (except in 10 minutes vs 8 hours).

 So its not sci-fi to all the technology naysayers. Additionally, if mk3 *somehow* fell through, the company would just resort to 2nd generation processing.


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## nomore4s (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



vert said:


> hi yt, looks like another great prospect your on to here, one issue that they will have to deal with is carting the ore. they wont be able to just truck the ore in to gero. alanah mctiernin is currently getting other mid-west iron ore plays of the roads and on to rail. they maybe alowded to truck to mullewa then rail to gero.
> will do some more research tomorrow on the other plays locations and where proposed rail lines might be going, bit of luck and a rail line might go straight past them.




Vert, this is off the website and may also be an option if trucking it will be a problem.

Transportation studies will also give consideration (particularly in regard to future increased production) to:
Trucking merchant pig iron to Mullewa and then transferring to rail for delivery into the Port of Geraldton; and 
*Restoring the narrow gauge rail line from Mullewa to the Project site along a pre-existing rail easement, a distance of 134km.* 

The management seem to be very thorough and have made sure they have plenty of options for various stages of the project. It will be interesting to see how it progresses.


----------



## vert (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

thanks nomore4s, they have got it sussed by the sounds of it. start trucking while the old line gets upgraded then change over to rail, pretty easy compared to others in the region i think.


----------



## Sean K (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Guys, I went to a bit of effort to do this comparison (15mins) I'd appreaciate some feedback or thoughts, look at the comparisons, is my assumption of a starting mkt cap of $50m reasonable? If not why? Can anyone find an Iron Ore producer play with a possible NPV of $1Billion and a Mkt Cap of $20m (undiluted) ? ? ?




Can't find any others YT.

IDO is the closest I think, but they are different companies at different stages of development.

Market cap just over $100m now.
Already JORC to 65mt fe equiv. (what's FWL fe equiv? No JORC yet - we're assuming it's going to be XX tns, but by what you have discussed with the company we can assume your guestimate might be close)
This is just 10% iron sands (FWL 25%?)
NPV $505m (FWL $1b - Maybe), $30m per year cash flow from early sales. (less than FWL)
Infrastructure is actually pretty good where it's located although you are right Indonesia can be dodgy, but labour is cheap as chips (literally).
Capex $700m. (FWL $300m might be hard to achieve?)
Production within 3 years. (FWL is possibly when? 3-5 yrs?)
This is similar sands to being mined by BLuescope in NZ so the technology is there for processing. Doesn't have to rely on the tech that FWL are 'trialling'.
Earning just 70%.
Already has offtake agreement. (who are FWL talking to?)
Has other projects in Peru and NT - not sure of what these are worth to them. Possibly nothing?

So, looking at that you would think FWL is probably cheap in comparison. Or, IDO is overpriced??


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (15 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

If IDO is overpriced, then so is AXO and GRR as they still have substantial hurdles in front of them! Rather the whole Iron Ore mkt is then overpriced, since FWL is the cheap anomoly, this leads me to believe that FWL will be re-rated post the JORC (1 week to go) and then again PFS (2-3 weeks to go) I'd keep saying ti and I stand by it, I expect a mkt cap of $50m+ once the mkt has confirmation from the company that they stand to make $80m a yr for 30yrs!

As for offtake, like I said, *Japan's Kobe Steel* has already asked for samples, see the ann, its to test if the *ITmk3 Process * will work as Yalgoo and then no doubt Kobe would want the offtake so no lack of interest, also per the article and my discussions with MD, the Chinese have been nipping at their heels since day 1, so they should have no problem in signing up a JV/offtake partner





kennas said:


> Can't find any others YT.
> 
> IDO is the closest I think, but they are different companies at different stages of development.
> 
> ...


----------



## Bungay (16 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

YT - you've got talent sniffing this one out, after cashing in on MGO -  i find your summary treatment of AXO a bit harsh tho' - it's way in front with a BFS, proxim to infrastructure, MoU with Chengde, potential partner checking out etc.. good luck with the exams


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Bungay said:


> YT - you've got talent sniffing this one out, after cashing in on MGO -  i find your summary treatment of AXO a bit harsh tho' - it's way in front with a BFS, proxim to infrastructure, MoU with Chengde, potential partner checking out etc.. good luck with the exams




Am happy to be corrected, but from what I found, I thought AXO needed to build a fair bit of infrastrucutre to get Balla Balla off the ground?

That being said AXO is an extremly undervalued company when compared to PMA, likewise IDO is undervalued when compared to the rest of its peers,

The point of this comparison was not to 'put down' or criticise the other parties, but was to show how undervalued FWL comparatively is currently.

Likewise FWL still has a long way to go, but they appear to be moving quickly now and the PFS which is due out in the next 3 weeks will be a company changer which should cause a re-rating.

Thanks for the feedback so far guys, appreaciate it,

Has anyone else called management with queries?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I should add from a technical point of view and judging by the buy depth it looks like 30c/33c is a support level, I would like to see FWL forming a nice base here at 33c pre the JORC and the PFS,

Kennas a chart woul be nice, what do the technicals say re price targets, support resistance etc, I know its a thinly traded stock and doesn't have that much of a history but I see that the 30c/33c level has only been flirted with twice before and both times its has failed to hold

Where as the pst 3 days have had avg trading around 35c which is really positive IMO,

Thanks in advance special K!


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

*Interesting article in last weekend's West Australian' on the future of Iron Ore (for those who missed it like myself). I guess it can be applied to pig iron:*

*Iron ore boom to roll on*


_12th June 2007, 7:15 WST_


The good times for Australian iron ore miners are set to keep rolling at least until the end of the decade, as Chinese demand shows no sign of slowing. 

According to the latest research by US investment bank Citigroup, iron ore prices are expected to rise at least 20 per cent over the next two years and could rise that amount next year alone. 

“Tight market conditions are expected to prevail over the next two years, pointing to a 20 per cent increases in prices, however, there are a number of additional considerations lending further price support in the shorter term,” Citigroup said. 

“We have taken the view therefore that producers will front-load the price increase (and) now expect prices to increase 20 per cent in 2008-09 and to be flat the year after.” 

Citigroup’s revised forecast follows upgrades by fellow banks UBS and Goldman Sachs pointing to cumulative rises of 10 to15 per cent over the next two years. 

Should Citigroup’s predictions prove correct and a sixth consecutive increase is agreed in price talks for next year, prices will have risen more than threefold since they last fell in 2002. 

Premium Pilbara lump ore was then fetching around $US23 a tonne, while another 20 per cent increase next year would boost the price to around $US80/tonne. 

At the same time, official figures from China have shown that Beijing’s efforts to slow its rampant economy and ease domestic inflation are having minimal effect. 

Iron ore imports jumped sharply to just over 100 million tonnes in the March quarter, keeping the full year total on track to rise 20 per cent to a record 400 million tonnes this year. 

“I can definitely say it (the price) is going up,” Fortescue Metals Group chief Andrew Forrest said on Friday. 

“There is an unstoppable force about the demand from the steel industry and the failure of infrastructure to supply it.” 

That imbalance has already sparked a desperate Chinese response to gain greater sway over future negotiations and supplies. 

With Beijing’s approval, individual Chinese steel companies have been aggressively investing in new mines around the world for several years. 

Last week, four of China’s biggest steelmakers ”” AnSteel, Baosteel, Shougang Steel and Wuhan Iron & Steel ”” formally launched a dedicated joint investment vehicle to acquire foreign resources. 

The company, Beijing Steel Industry United Mining Resources, would improve Chinese steelmakers’ control over supply, AnSteel said. 

AnSteel, which is already a partner in Gindalbie Metals’ planned $1 billion Karara magnetite project east of Geraldton, said control of iron ore supplies had “for too long been in other people’s hands”, in turn creating “market instability”. 

“Steelmakers who don’t have their own iron ore resources will not survive,” Wuhan said in a statement. 

The new company’s initial venture will be at Preah Vihear in Cambodia. 

Aside from Karara, Chinese companies are already backing new WA mines in the Pilbara at Cape Preston, Balmoral and Cape Lambert, and in the Mid-West at Koolanooka, Weld Range and Extension Hill. 

JOHN PHACEAS


----------



## aaronphetamine (17 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Looks like an Harami Cross Candlestick formation on the last day days of trading for FWL, even though they are both black candles, an Harami Cross is usually good news for the SP of a stock.

So with good market sentiment the SP of FWL looks like it will gain tomorrow, also there is quite a thin sell side and a large buyer side.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I've been buying more FWL, I can't wait for JORC and PFS,

Am surprised that I've been able to buy so much more around the 33c level

Any other ASF'ers buying?


----------



## Pommiegranite (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I've been buying more FWL, I can't wait for JORC and PFS,
> 
> Am surprised that I've been able to buy so much more around the 33c level
> 
> Any other ASF'ers buying?




I was thinking about the options YT...can you tell me what the excercise price please? Am I correct in thinking expiry is in 3 years. I already hold heads.


----------



## Ruprect (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I have an order in for the options. Yes, 3 year expiry which is very long, and a 25c ex price. I do like the fact that this one is very very tightly held. When the next announcement comes it has a very good potential to rocket very quickly as it did last week.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hmm the opies are 25c exercise so at 35c they should be 10c but they have 3yrs to expire so thats probably why they're at 16c-18c

I intially bought options at 10c but at these levels I'm buying stock, was lucky enough to grab 120k on friday at an avg of 33.5c

Also got 100k at 30c on Thursday

I'm gonna try and get more at 33c/34c it looks like support,

I firmly believe this could be 60c+ based on my analysis once the PFS comes out,

As an exmaple check out Reward, RWD, company came out with a PFS showing Net Profit of $25m a yr for 100yrs, mkt cap has risen from $10m to $60m as a result of PFS and its deposit is Potash!

vs FWL who should have a PFS with an EBITDA of $75-$85m p.a. for 30yrs (intially) with Iron Ore/Pig Iron, I expect mkt to give FWL a mkt cap = 0.5 - 1 yr of the 30yrs EBITDA = 60c - $1 

Be interesting to see how market reacts to the JORC when it comes out


----------



## Caliente (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

YT, come two weeks everyone will look back and say geez, those shares were a "steel"  or maybe they wont...

Ok bad jokes back in the closet, basically at the moment we're just waiting for Kobe to take a look at the concentrate and see if it plays nice with itMK3.

Brett Manning isn't the most exciting MD out there, but looks like he knows how to get the job done.


----------



## chris1983 (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I've been buying more FWL, I can't wait for JORC and PFS,
> 
> Am surprised that I've been able to buy so much more around the 33c level
> 
> Any other ASF'ers buying?




Looks good.  Good research too YT.  I'll read further into this one tonight.  Based off all your figures etc it definately looks like its worth a buy..with news pending.


----------



## Sean K (18 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Kennas a chart woul be nice, what do the technicals say re price targets, support resistance etc, I know its a thinly traded stock and doesn't have that much of a history but I see that the 30c/33c level has only been flirted with twice before and both times its has failed to hold



YT, It's hard for me to make anything out of this at the moment. The pullback was inevitable I think after such a huge jump. Short termers were going to get out of it with a nice gain and go straight to the pub.  The indicators said way overbought too. There's no decent S&R lines on this. Maybe the highs at 32/33 cents back in Jan/Feb but that's stretching it. Not enough volume to provide any real validity either perhaps. The last 2 days doji's indicate indicision between the bulls and bears, but perhaps the decreased volume while the stock came off indicates there's fewer sellers trying to get out. Or, fewer buyers chasing the stock.  By definition a single doji in a pullback supposed to be a moderate indication of a potential reversal, but requires a strong follow up day for confirmation. So, two doji's? And is it an 'uptrend'? More a single spike perhaps. If the last 2 doji's were inside the real body of the big red candle, then you'd be looking at a high probability of a reversal, especially since it's formed a pretty clear pole and pennant, however these formations usually take a few days to weeks to materialise. After 3 days? Needs more of a wind up to have the energy to break strongly I feel. If it was a true pennant then the price target from a break from the formation is the length of the pole, but that just seems unrealistic in the short term. (although it probably gets close to your valuation)  

So, in summary, I have no idea.  

I think it'll be driven by the announcements, and short termers scalping it, and there's not enough on the chart for me to work with. I'm just a jube. Sorry.  I think your fundamentals might be more relevant at the moment.

Any other views?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Up to 44.5c now sell side so so thin, thats what happens when top 20 hold 80%, buy side, get this, opened at 36c now theres 1Million on the buy above 36c!

I think its insiders buying pre JORC, news has definately leaked, it has to have, else why the charge today?


----------



## Caliente (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

yup - this one *definitely *gets a gold star from me for the potential breakout thread.

9 sellers now so its padding a bit, but looking real bullish.


----------



## Pommiegranite (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Up to 44.5c now sell side so so thin, thats what happens when top 20 hold 80%, buy side, get this, opened at 36c now theres 1Million on the buy above 36c!
> 
> I think its insiders buying pre JORC, news has definately leaked, it has to have, else why the charge today?




YT maybe you're underestimating yourself...you've got a fanclub on HC,..and I reckon quite a few HCers have joined ASF in the last couple of days.

Didn't get a chance to pick up those options in the end. Oh well ..it happens


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well Kennas and aaronphetamine, looks like your comments re the doji where spot on!

I can't believe the buying strength today, amazing, simply amazing, I'm going to go and have a look at HotCopper to see if its just them but I doubt it, volumes and buys are way up, way way up

I think its insiders, what do you guys reckon?


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hahaha HC is a joke half those guys just want someone to listen to their BS to stroke their ego's.

Does anyone have an idea of when we can expect the resource upgrade they have been drilling for a while now.

I couldn't help but grab a small parcel at 45  was gonna buy yesterday but funds all tied up


----------



## djones (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well Kennas and aaronphetamine, looks like your comments re the doji where spot on!
> 
> I can't believe the buying strength today, amazing, simply amazing, I'm going to go and have a look at HotCopper to see if its just them but I doubt it, volumes and buys are way up, way way up
> 
> I think its insiders, what do you guys reckon?




Had a buy on open bid in for 35c but it opened at 36c so checking it now im gutted! I personally think its just people reading these forums. Im not buying at 45c but will leave my buy in there in case it dips! Thanks YT and good luck.


----------



## UPKA (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well Kennas and aaronphetamine, looks like your comments re the doji where spot on!
> 
> I can't believe the buying strength today, amazing, simply amazing, I'm going to go and have a look at HotCopper to see if its just them but I doubt it, volumes and buys are way up, way way up
> 
> I think its insiders, what do you guys reckon?




Any idea when the report is gonna come out? this very well be insider buyer, pushed up the SP, and the rest of the market js followed on. the sellers r drying up is a good sign, definately the big players r holding on their shares for the ann.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



KIWIKARLOS said:


> Does anyone have an idea of when we can expect the resource upgrade they have been drilling for a while now.






UPKA said:


> Any idea when the report is gonna come out?




Read my posts and you won't have to ask,



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> this leads me to believe that FWL will be re-rated post the *JORC (1 week to go) and then again PFS (2-3 weeks to go) *I'd keep saying ti and I stand by it, I expect a mkt cap of $50m+ once the mkt has confirmation from the company that they stand to make $80m a yr for 30yrs!






djones said:


> Im not buying at 45c but will leave my buy in there in case it dips!




Good luck jones'y by the looks of it its not going below 38c, look at the buy depth!

I've got an order up at 41c 70k only, mind you I have been buying on the way up so my avg is probably 33c, Am happy I managed to get another 200k last week at 33c avg


----------



## juw177 (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Been watching this myself.

Plenty of sellers now as of 3:30. I wonder if they were the ones that bought earlier.


----------



## Ruprect (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

a few sellers, then the buyers piled in. A very good finish so far, and the close is looking even stronger. I amended my buy order for the options this morning and bought (thank god). I look forward to the announcement.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



juw177 said:


> Been watching this myself.
> 
> Plenty of sellers now as of 3:30. I wonder if they were the ones that bought earlier.




Plenty of sellers?

I think I need to put something in perspective here,

There's 55m shares on issue, of which the top 20 hold probably 44m which leaves 11m left for the mkt,

The stock opened at 36c, theres now 1m buying above that level,  on the other side of the equation theres probably 180k selling from 50c down, 

So theres plenty of buyers and some sellers, that being said I'd expect FWL to retrace to the low 40's but given that the JORC is due out anytime now, who knows,

All needs to be taken in perspective I suppose, it has run really really hard, I am amazed at today to be honest! absolutely amazed!


----------



## hueyt (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

YT. I like the analysis. 

2 questions tho: 

1. where did you get the EBITDA figures from?


2. during RWD's period of performance, was there something taking place in the market that gave buoyancy to the price that it may not be now? My point is that the all ords rallied hard in March buoyed by post feb 28 optimism. I would argue that we are in a period of reduce exuberance/appetite and increasing bond yields.... would this affect your 60c share price?





YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hmm the opies are 25c exercise so at 35c they should be 10c but they have 3yrs to expire so thats probably why they're at 16c-18c
> 
> I intially bought options at 10c but at these levels I'm buying stock, was lucky enough to grab 120k on friday at an avg of 33.5c
> 
> ...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



hueyt said:


> YT. I like the analysis.
> 
> 2 questions tho:
> 
> ...





Answers
Qu 1. Search through the thread, I've doen them twice and so has another memeber who confirmed them!

Qu 2. The mkt doesn't get much more exhuberant than this, FWL has run from 20c to 45c in a week!

Also RWD had no presentations was word of mouth from what I understand and the main point is their deposit/project is Potash, does anyone even know what that is? Its a type of agricultural fertiliser

FWL's is Iron Ore/Steel/Pig Iron, mkt knows what that is


----------



## greggy (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Answers
> Qu 1. Search through the thread, I've doen them twice and so has another memeber who confirmed them!
> 
> Qu 2. The mkt doesn't get much more exhuberant than this, FWL has run from 20c to 45c in a week!
> ...



Hi YT,

I've been unable to board your latest train, but thanks for starting this thread.  I hope I can repay you one day.  Its amazing how a tightly held stock can run so well when 1. its in a hot sector in iron ore and 2. it seems that people are anticipating some extremely positive news coming out shortly.
DYOR


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

You guys aren't going to believe this, you guys simply won't beleive this,

I have just found out something that makes me wish I had bought more of this, 

This isn't a ramp guys, this is me truly blown away, all I can say is that this is the next Murchison Metals, same backers, similar shareholders, apparantly they will soon turn their focus to Ferrowest

Give me a few minutes to consolidate my research I guarantee you'll be blown away with this new info!

(Frothing at the mouth )


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Ok to begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Note the names in bold

Rank Shareholder Name Holding % 
1 Comet Resources Limited 8,700,000 16.11 
2 Graeme & Margaret Johnston
(The G&M Johnston Superfund) 4,575,000 8.47 
3 Philip James Evers 4,335,000 8.03 
4 Grenache Pty Ltd 4,325,000 8.01 
5 Alcardo Investments Limited (Styled 102501 Account) 2,589,816 4.80 
6 Eugenia Manning 2,050,000 3.80 
7 WHI Securities Pty Ltd 
(Crown Credit Corporation) 1,923,500 3.56 
8 Brett Lee Manning 1,887,200 3.49 
*9 Nikolais Zuks 1,300,000 2.41 *
10 National Nominees Limited 1,250,000 2.31 
11 ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) 1,100,000 2.04 
12 MP Securities Nominees 1,027,000 1.90 
13 Irrawaddy Investments Pty Ltd 
(Duffin Family A/C) 1,000,000 1.85 
14 JM International Investments 997,590 1.85 
15 BOSO 1 Pty Ltd 500,000 .93 
16 Forty Traders Pty Ltd 500,000 .93 
*17 Paul & Karen Kopejtka (Kopejtka Share A/C) 475,000 .88 *
18 Tuxedo Investments Pty Ltd 450,000 .83 
19 Panga Pty Ltd 400,000 .74 
20 G C & D S Campbell 350,000 .65 

Wonder who no 9. Nikolais Zuks is?

He was only one of the *founding shareholders and backers of Murchison Metals* see this http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au


Wonder who no 17. Paul Kopejtka is? 
He also was another *founder of Murchison Metals* and is also the *current Executive Chairman *see this http://www.mml.net.au/about/board_of_directors.phtml
 and again
http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au

If you have a look *Murchison Metals started off as a 20c stock like Ferrowest 2 years ago, today its $5!*

I uncovered this information after my broker in Perth called me to ask why I like FWL so much, he then told me how the group that did Murchison Metals will soon be focusing on Ferrowest as there next Iron Ore development story,

I can't believe I missed these links!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Arghhhhhhhhhh

I have no doubt in my mind that once the PFS numbers firm up Yalgoo it will be onward and upward from there,

No doubt at all,


Thoughts?


----------



## Sean K (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Ok to begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
> Note the names in bold
> 
> Rank Shareholder Name Holding %
> ...



Good ramp YT!  

Can there be any other reason for them being on the register? As investors? Do they have a finger in any other specie pies? They may have stock holdings in some woofers too? 

Playing the devil. he, he. :evilburn:

I'm trying to make sure you don't get there. 

Why aren't you studying?


----------



## Fool (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> You guys aren't going to believe this, you guys simply won't beleive this,
> 
> I have just found out something that makes me wish I had bought more of this,
> 
> ...




I am blown away.

And VERY ANNOYED.

because I can't keep every single stock that you find !!!! 

This ****s me to tears because I was going to sell FWL tomorrow to fund some external (not sharetrading) investments, and NOW I WANT TO HOLD IT !!!!! 

YT you are the devil.


----------



## Sean K (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Wonder who no 9. Nikolais Zuks is?
> 
> He was only one of the *founding shareholders and backers of Murchison Metals* see this http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au



OK, being Exec Chair rings bells. 

My TA price target was almost met today, so I can offer nothing else. (Even though I was sitting on 3 fences) 

I'll just hide in the corner with my Telstra shares now.


----------



## Pommiegranite (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well spotted YT 

It doesn't take much to make the top 20 either

I might like to add that the Murchison Metals story has far to run too!!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



kennas said:


> Good ramp YT!
> 
> Can there be any other reason for them being on the register? As investors? Do they have a finger in any other specie pies? They may have stock holdings in some woofers too?
> 
> ...




I have been told that this is there next play, wait and see my friend wait and see,



Also here is Murchisons last Top 20 see here http://www.mml.net.au/images/murchison-35--chini.pdf
Note the names in the bold
Per page Paul Kopejtka's interest in shares is  *Interest in Shares and Options 14,600,000 Shares, 4,000,000 Options* At current Murchison prices thats a net worth of $100m +


3. Twenty largest holders of quoted equity securities
Fully paid Ordinary Shareholders Number Percentage
ANZ Nominees Limited <Cash Income A/C> 37,494,163 11.58
POSCO Australia Pty Ltd 30,000,000 9.26
J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 22,316,697 6.89
National Nominees Limited 20,752,767 6.41
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited-GSCO ECSA 17,507,955 5.41
Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited 16,664,395 5.15
Resource Capital Fund 111 L P 10,000,000 3.09
*Taswa Pty Ltd 8,360,000 2.58* (Pauls holdings)
Hebei Qianjin Steel Group (Australia) Pty Ltd 7,142,857 2.21
Eriditus Pty Ltd <The Robert Vagnoni A/C> 6,830,000 2.11
*Mr Paul John Kopejtka & Mrs Karen Louise Kopejtka <Kopejtka Family A/C> 6,240,000 1.93*
Resource Capital Fund III L P 6,000,000 1.85
IOS Management Ltd 4,600,000 1.42
Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 3,461,811 1.07
Yilgarn Infrastructure Limited 3,300,000 1.02
HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited-GSI ECSA 3,296,232 1.02
Mr Cecil Hoffman & Mrs Norma Hoffman <Hoffman Super Fund A/C> 3,100,000 0.96
Dr Charles Frater 3,000,000 0.93
*Russlan Zuks <Nikolais Zuks A/C> 2,910,855 0.90*
Bscale Pty Ltd 2,847,200 0.88
215,824,932 66.65


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> Well spotted YT
> 
> It doesn't take much to make the top 20 either
> 
> I might like to add that the Murchison Metals story has far to run too!!




I didn't spot it, my broker rang me when he heard this because he knew I had been buying like crazy,


Apparantly the whole Murchison signing some deal with Mitsubishi was all the rage in Perth etc and is in a sense a great achievement for these guys, anyway my broker reckons that all the people involved with Murchison were chatting about FWL which my broker found very amusing as he knew I was super bullish on it already, so he called me at 8pm to tell me what he found out, I did the research to confirm it and he's right.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Guys I don't usually do this, but there's just not enough feedback here for me on FWL and I am actually thinking of buying more given this info so I'm going to post on some other forums to see if there are some more informed opinions out there,

HotCopper is a known rampers base, but there are some savvy peeps on there and I'm a wee bit nervous at piling more into this stock without some more opinions to bounce off


----------



## prawn_86 (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

given the info you have shown us YT im actually thinking of selling up some of my FNT and putting it into FWL as another medium term play, im just worried about CGT thats all. 
but imo on the back of all info, not just the recent stuff, i would be(probably will) be happy to buy in at open tomorrow


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thanks Prawn,

I'm off for now, will check the posts in the morning and get a feel for the stock before I buy more (I have so much already!)


I know that people sometimes copy n paste my posts onto other forums, I ask that nobody copy and paste these recent FWL posts, I have just now asked what peoples thoughts are re the info on hotcopper but have not told them that I was specifically told by my broker that those MMX chaps I mentioned are going to use FWL as there next play, all I have done is highlighted the link, I want to see what some unbiased uninformed views make of it


Ciao


----------



## zt3000 (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Guys I don't usually do this, but there's just not enough feedback here for me on FWL and I am actually thinking of buying more given this info so I'm going to post on some other forums to see if there are some more informed opinions out there,
> 
> HotCopper is a known rampers base, but there are some savvy peeps on there and I'm a wee bit nervous at piling more into this stock without some more opinions to bounce off




YT,

Just a thought ... could Murchinson be lining up FWL for a takeover, considering they have major shareholders in both interests???? I'd consider buying FWLO on this premise, yet the options are currently technically overvalued .... the interesting this is the human behaviour factor. All technicalities and fundamentals count for nothing if people 'want' to buy or conversly sell.

Volume has looked strong over the last few days / week, been issued with speeding ticket etc and yet there has been no announcement ... although there is one due soon. 

Looks like the buy on rumour sell on fact scenario. It probably still has legs from a behavioural aspect, fundamentally i couldn't say as there has been no new news, and technically i cant say, coz i know jack about technical analysis haha

Hope my  was at the least a time filler .... probably not the best

but i'll probably be trying to pick up some tomorrow and hold till the announcement 

DYOR


----------



## Ken (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Young trader.
You're definitley coming up with some good ones. I am in no position to bounce any ideas off you, as I dont know the game well enough.

Drill results mean nothing to me cause I dont know how to read them.

I dont really like buying into a stock that has doubled....  


Sounds dumb!  But I have a fear of it halving as soon as you buy it..

It could be BHP, and if its doubled, I tend not to buy....

Is this a bad habbit....  any other people feel they have missed the boat if something shoots....  I do... and only to see it keep going.. you could be onto something.

I know fund managers are buying FRS.  Thats about it.  Cause I can see it through work.


----------



## surfingman (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

YT,

Good spotting everything looks good to go up with FWL (not that i need to say that) long term looks really nice, would love to buy in but funds are tied up for a few more weeks, the shareholders in top 20 you commented about are extremely good news agreed with you ZT3000 potential take over in my opinion also.

Have they released a previous resource estimate? cant find anything?

I love it how they put this on the end of announcements as a reassurance:

Merchant Pig Iron Market
The Company’s business plan to target the merchant pig iron (MPI) market is continuing to be vindicated by strong market performance and robust medium term forecasts. Average MPI prices are around 30% higher than for the same period last year (Source: Tex Report) and world demand for MPI is expected to grow by 4.5% per annum between now and 2011 (Source: CRU Group) when the Yalgoo Iron Project is due to commission.

Good Luck...


----------



## prawn_86 (19 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Ken said:


> I dont really like buying into a stock that has doubled....
> Sounds dumb!  But I have a fear of it halving as soon as you buy it..
> Is this a bad habbit....  any other people feel they have missed the boat if something shoots....  I do...




Ken, this is a fear i recently just conquered, and im a fundamentalist. I have only really just learnt how to read mining reports and now (coupled with many informative posts here on ASF) believe that even if a stock has doubled, and the underlying value is still significantly greater, then buy in!

As I have mentioned before I prefer medium term plays, but a distinct lack of capital makes it hard for me.

With stocks that have doubled though you have to expect short term volatility and profit taking, its only natural. if you believe that your sums are correct and have faith in your ability (and nerves of steel) then holding out medium term is often a winner.

Remember though, even stock like Paladin have significant retracements at some stages of their skyrocket, thats where the nerves of steel come in!

Now im back to stressing about what to sell on open to buy into FWL...
any hints lol


----------



## Fool (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Even before this latest bit of "ramping" (j/k) on YT's behalf I thought FWL could run harder then it currently has... not much harder but still more to go.

There is a lot going for this company, and I think if you are planning on holding it long term then it doesn't really matter what price it's currently trading at - just buy tomorrow and forget about it for a year or two.

There was a good point made tonight though, if it looks like a takeover is going on, the options are the best thing to invest in because they'll still be there in 3 years time.

Plus they are trading at almost half the heads at the moment, you can get twice as many (if the limited volume permits) then you can the heads.

Personally considering selling some of my others stocks right now to hold more FWL and hold for 2 years.

Hard call to make.


----------



## INORE (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I imagine everyone has checked out how little of this stock is available...and with the publicity this has recently been given I see this stock landing within YT's 60c-100c value before lunch time tomorrow.....the question then is....is it still a good buy????

YT do you re-re-rate this stock now you have been armed with this new info from your broker?


----------



## prawn_86 (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

if i can pick it up for under 50c tomorrow, i dare say i will (its killing me what to sell though).
then i will actually try and hold it for over a year to avoid taxes.
Sub 50c even if it does _only_ get to 60c thats still a nice 20% profit. show me any bank with that and i'll open an account


----------



## questionall_42 (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



prawn_86 said:


> if i can pick it up for under 50c tomorrow, i dare say i will (its killing me what to sell though).
> then i will actually try and hold it for over a year to avoid taxes.
> Sub 50c even if it does _only_ get to 60c thats still a nice 20% profit. show me any bank with that and i'll open an account




It indeed will be an interesting day for FWL.  Interest abounds...

Prawn, one thing I have learnt is don't plan trades around CGT.  Have a trading plan which is based on a market assessment, f/a, t/a...  I think you'll find that, particularly on a student income, CGT won't be a major concern.  Just crunch the #s.


----------



## kgee (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

A bit of lateral thinking here...you can pick up a 3 bedroom house in yalgoo asking price $80000 anyone want to go halves


----------



## Fool (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bi...y=&fmt=&header=&c=40819214&s=wa&tm=1182284331

If that's what you get for $80,000 I think it would be money better spent buying more stock tomorrow ... 

That place will need more then $80,000 to get it rentable I would think.

Nice lateral thinking though.


----------



## Pommiegranite (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> There was a good point made tonight though, if it looks like a takeover is going on, the options are the best thing to invest in because they'll still be there in 3 years time.




Mate, there is *NO takeover* going on by MMX

The shares held in FWL are director's personal interests i.e MMX is not a shareholder.

Besides, MMX have enough on their plate with future capex. They are not at that stage in their life cycle imo

Also, its not in FWL shareholders' interests (even the top 20) for a takeover.

If you want to talk JVs...well thats another matter


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yeah but see MMX ann regarding mitsbishi buying a 50% stake in their iron ore portfolio and they now have an agreement to build rail infrastructure and aquire more interests in iron in the WA area.

So tell me is it coincidence that two major share holders of this growing Iron ore Hound dog happen to be the large shareholders in FWL?

Im not suggesting insider trading but quite often very large shareholders are privy to info that we just dont know or get. Be it directly or indirectly.

Im lookin at the options they expire in 2011 so a long time to develope into a good return and it looks like once this mornings lot are gone there will be little or none left on the open market.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

One more note:

Recent FWL ann said they are sending the samples to Japan to be tested because WA is chockers will people queing to get their samples done.

Thats a long way to send samples. Sure it s prob cause they have a big stell market but i like to think otherwise. :


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Guys this is just too much, I hope no ones paying these levels, please take a bit of time to note how hard the stock has run it was 20c last week,


I'm bullish do to my own research and anlysis, but I was also lucky enough to buy early and have continued to buy, my avg entry is probably 35c on the shares and 15c on the options,


I did not mean to imply that FWL will be the next Murchison in terms of projects or going to $5 overnight etc etc

What I meant to imply was that the from what I've heard and then researched and verified, that same players behind Murchison are apparantly looking to FWL as their next play, 

That being said I think at these levels pre PFS figures its a bit too much,

I'm going to wait back at 39c with a buy and see if I get filled on a retrace

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DYOR and don't get caught up in the euphoria!


----------



## prawn_86 (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

couldnt agree more YT, seems to be running on the back pure speculation from the forums etc. 
my order is set for 40c and lets see what happens. if i dont fill it then you cant win them all


----------



## prawn_86 (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

also another question/worry i have.

since it is already so tightly held, what happens if another say 10 - 15% of smaller holders are in it for the long term also, that only leaves 5 - 10% with the traders. is this enough to push the stock higher, or does it become illiquid?

just something thats been at the back of my mind


----------



## Mousie (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



prawn_86 said:


> also another question/worry i have.
> 
> since it is already so tightly held, what happens if another say 10 - 15% of smaller holders are in it for the long term also, that only leaves 5 - 10% with the traders. is this enough to push the stock higher, or does it become illiquid?




Short answer (not enough for 100 characters): Both?

Long answer: If you're LT anyway why do you worry about the stock being illiquid?


----------



## juw177 (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Lots of people taking a profit when it opened 20% higher. Expecting share price to climb back up to mid-high 50's in the afternoon.


----------



## prawn_86 (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Mousie said:


> If you're LT anyway why do you worry about the stock being illiquid?




worry about it, because what is going to push the price higher? will those 10% of non long term holders b enough for a sustained long term price rise?


----------



## moses (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I'm out this morning at 0.595, having bought in when YT first flagged it here on ASF. Thanks YT for another great tip.


----------



## Mousie (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



prawn_86 said:


> worry about it, because what is going to push the price higher? will those 10% of non long term holders b enough for a sustained long term price rise?




If good news keep coming out it'll sustain the LT price rise. Sure there might be gap ups but that's what a LT holder would like to see. The last thing you'd want as a LT holder is for a stock to capped by day traders aplenty. With 10% of stock changing hands you ain't gonna see the price band staying very long. Hope this helps


----------



## Caliente (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Just added a packet of FWLO to double my exposure.

At 0.29+.25=54c they represent a much more realistic valuation to the current SP.


----------



## Pat (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Guys this is just too much, I hope no ones paying these levels, please take a bit of time to note how hard the stock has run it was 20c last week,
> 
> 
> I'm bullish do to my own research and anlysis, but I was also lucky enough to buy early and have continued to buy, my avg entry is probably 35c on the shares and 15c on the options,
> ...



Ha ha ha, thankyou for your concern 
I got in yesterday at 44 cents and put a sell in at 60 cents straight away, and what would you know it was filled before i knew it. WOW! 
Anyway waiting just above 40 cents now. Thanks YT, did you take any profit?


----------



## lounge chair (20 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

just been thinking of a comparison of FWL to TRF. They are both magnetite deposits, shares on issue are approx the same. FWL from what i have seen posted, have 75m tonne and TRF or iron clad 44m tonne. TRF sp ran from 20 odd cents to $2 in 3 months. They are pretty close to infrastructure, and the cost to build a benny plant would be similar? FWL have just taken off from 20 cents where will they go? Be interested in any other thoughts on what the value of FWL should be or could be.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Lounge chair here is all my research

Although I originally said 60c is a target, at 60c the mkt = $51m which could turn out to be a possible 1 yr of 30 year net profit, so a PFS that showed profit of $50m p.a. for 30yrs may = a Mkt Cap of $100m, my broker thinks this is more reasonable if the PFS shows this,

DYOR 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.
> 
> This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate *$75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m *
> 
> ...






YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Ok to begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
> Note the names in bold
> 
> Rank Shareholder Name Holding %
> ...


----------



## UPKA (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr. 

YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.

PS, the annoucement also stated:

*The Company confirms that it still expects to release its first resource estimate for the Yogi iron ore
deposit before the end of June.*

looks like we r not too far off now!


----------



## Fool (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr.
> 
> YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.
> 
> ...




From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.

Surprises me that people are selling with an announcement like this, unless they all think that it has gone as hard as it's going to, and is overbought as it is.

I can see this one driving hard upon the announcement and then being sold down as people take their profits - same thing happened to FNT, YML, MGO etc.

Silly traders


----------



## UPKA (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.
> 
> Surprises me that people are selling with an announcement like this, unless they all think that it has gone as hard as it's going to, and is overbought as it is.
> 
> ...




the market is down a bit, and its been played by day traders, u can tell from teh volatility thru out the day. nothing to worry abt, if it falls any lower, i would consider to accumulate somemore, i think this is only start of the run, this one could well be in the $1 range!


----------



## Pommiegranite (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Relating to today's announcement, this is what I dug up from Cleveland Cliff's webiste. I've highlighted in blue some 'interesting points':

Any comments on the similarites? Will be interesting to see what the capex comes out at for the similarly sized Cleveland & Ferrowest projects.



*Cleveland, OH””June 19, 2007””*Cleveland-Cliffs Inc *(NYSE: CLF)* today announced that it has entered into an alliance whereby Kobe Steel agreed to license its patented ITmk3 ® iron-making process to Cleveland-Cliffs. *The alliance, which has a 10-year term, covers use of the proprietary process in the United States and Canada, Australia and Brazil*, and may be expanded to include other geographic regions.


Used for the production of high-purity iron nuggets containing more than 96% iron, the ITmk3 process provides the means to create high-quality raw material for electric arc furnaces (EAFs). Steel producers utilizing EAFs currently account for nearly half of North America's steelmaking capacity. 


Commenting on the new alliance, Cliffs Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Joseph A. Carrabba stated: "One of Cliffs' major strategic initiatives is to sustain its leadership position in pioneering processes related to metallics. By constructing a commercial-scale facility that will produce iron in nearly pure form, we will further that mission and be able to offer North America's non-integrated steel mills a consistently available and very high-quality domestic metallic feed, which is similar in quality to imported pig iron. Moreover, as Cliffs currently sells the majority of its pellets to integrated steel companies in North America, this opportunity has the potential to open a new market.

"We have been very interested in this technology since successfully testing the process in a pilot plant located at our Northshore facility. The alliance with Kobe moves us closer to realizing our mutual goal of commercializing and exploiting this innovative process."


*The Company also announced that the two parties have agreed to participate on a joint-venture basis as strategic equity partners in a 500,000 ton per annum iron nugget facility* to be constructed at one of Cliffs' United States mining properties. The timing of this project and the site location will ultimately depend on permitting issues.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr.
> 
> YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.




$200m p.a. US = $250m p.a. AUD (US/AUD 80c)
30 yrs = *Gross Cash Flow Total of $7.5Billion*

Still I prefer to work with the EBIT of $150/t for 500kt's for 30yrs 
= $150 x 500,000 x 30 = *$2.25Billion Total EBITDA*

*Thus I estimate an intial NPV of say $1Billion *
The depsoit is most likely to double or tripple in size after speaking to the Chairman, as the intial JORC is from 6-9kms of a total 27-30kms

With Iron Ore unlike others, I think it deserves a higher % of potential NPV due to the fact that Iron Ore/Pig Iron is more stable and is far easier to get funding for, ie Chinese, Japanese, Koreans etc so *I'd say 10% of NPV would seem reasonable = $100m = $1.20c FWL*




Fool said:


> From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.




What my broker said was *after the PFS if it ALL STACKED UP, IE NPV $1Billion *THEN AND ONLY THEN would a 10% of possible NPV seem reasonable/cheap,


I must emphasise I can't believe how well its held up, the really goes to show that holders are not selling and buyers seem to be holding, from what I gather those on ASF who play stocks for a 'quick buck' got out yesterday, 

I firmly believe that this stock tick's all the boxes to being a solid development story, if you cast your eyes over the beginings of MMX, GBG, MIS, TFE, AGO or even MGX they all started from humble beginings but in hindsight had the potential to become what they have now,

I will be very surprised if the stock doesn't reach $1 within the next 3 months as I expect the PFS to deliver the goods


----------



## Fool (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> - Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit




Could be old news, but it is news to me so I thought I would post it just incase anyone else hadn't seen it:

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070604/pdf/00726712.pdf

The above is great for FWL even if they don't need a rail transport at the moment to get ore to the docks ... they will definitely have it in the future.

Rail has to be cheaper then trucking it to the docks - more profits for shareholders!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (21 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Advantages
> - Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
> - *TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight*
> - Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options   instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
> ...




FWL really is holding up well, but that was to be expected given the news I discovered, anyway just goes to show what a tight share registry can do as a result of the top 20 holding 80%

The stock opened just above 50c today and now there's over 300k on the bid above 50c!

I can't wait to see the chart in 2 weeks time to see just when and where it consolidated


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

something weird js happened this morning, a big sell order of 136889shares were sitting on 0.55c around 9oclock, i thought someone is trying to cap it. now suddently its been pulled to 0.58c, while the buy order is still down at 0.55c. strange move unless he/she knows the an annoucement is due real soon?


----------



## mobcat (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Same thing with the oppies this morning the market pressure seems to building on this one could see some nice action this morning going by the pre bidding some people want in out there


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



mobcat said:


> Same thing with the oppies this morning the market pressure seems to building on this one could see some nice action this morning going by the pre bidding some people want in out there




but the buy orders above 50c isnt particularly strong on the ordinaries, if someone decided to dump, it can easily pull back.


----------



## mobcat (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

True UPKA sure is going to be interesting where it sits at 10;30 sould sort the pre bid BS out on a closer look it could be games being played by a few punters who knows hey ..........goodluck today ann around the corner maybe


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

it's been bought up big time, with no sellers at all! i think the report has been leaked! good times ahead boys!


----------



## juw177 (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Regarding the weird big order this morning of 130k, looks like its not going to push the price down afterall.
It sure got snapped up quickly.


----------



## mobcat (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well it,s 10;30 some nice action in the heads hey if we see some vol increase it could be on for young and old pre ann pressure on the holders side big time atm happy day


----------



## ALFguy (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing? 

Haven't been following but just skipped through the thread and sounds good.
Saying that, the sp looks to have run already and I wouldn't normally get in at this point. Probably my mistake, but keeping an eye on it now.


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



ALFguy said:


> Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing?
> 
> Haven't been following but just skipped through the thread and sounds good.
> Saying that, the sp looks to have run already and I wouldn't normally get in at this point. Probably my mistake, but keeping an eye on it now.




why is he telling u to get into it today? annoucement or something? would be nice to know why the massive rise in SP today on no ann...


----------



## Pommiegranite (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



ALFguy said:


> Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing?
> 
> Haven't been following but just skipped through the thread and sounds good.
> Saying that, the sp looks to have run already and I wouldn't normally get in at this point. Probably my mistake, but keeping an eye on it now.





well..don't blink then.

This stock has hardly retraced at all since breaking out since high teens.

Its also soooo tightly held that its more geared as an 'investment' than a 'trade'


----------



## ALFguy (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey, don't buy on what I posted people!!

Just telling you what he said and he doesn't normally call me about such things. I asked why why why but he said 'gotta go'! So without knowing why, I'm staying out for now. Looks strong but I don't have the balls.


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> well..don't blink then.
> 
> This stock has hardly retraced at all since breaking out since high teens.
> 
> Its also soooo tightly held that its more geared as an 'investment' than a 'trade'




i have a feeling a certain individual or company is accumulating them, taking whatever stock they can find. could be Lion Group, u'll never know..


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



ALFguy said:


> Hey, don't buy on what I posted people!!
> 
> Just telling you what he said and he doesn't normally call me about such things. I asked why why why but he said 'gotta go'! So without knowing why, I'm staying out for now. Looks strong but I don't have the balls.




well we know there is an annoucement due sometime this month, so has to be this couple of days. for all we know, and looking at the price action, could be today or next monday. from YT's conservative valuation he has a target price of 60c, bt i reckon its probably double or more of that. we'll only find out with teh annoucement is made. good luck all.


----------



## ALFguy (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Damn, should have listened! Just hit 75c.

Maybe it is the ann? People seem to want in even at this price?!


----------



## Sean K (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Must go into a halt at this rate. ASX must be all over them at the moment. The ann is expected so they won't get their @arses kicked too hard.


----------



## ALFguy (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



kennas said:


> Must go into a halt at this rate. ASX must be all over them at the moment. The ann is expected so they won't get their @arses kicked too hard.




Agreed! Something has leaked.

Still, I guess if this is likely to happen, there's little chance of anyone selling so my order in the low 60's won't get filled.....grrrr. That's procrastination for ya.


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

arent they suppose to put it trading halt as soon as the report is completed and ready for release? i mean imagine how many hands the report will get thru before the market gets it, e.g. secretary, typist, mail boy!


----------



## Sean K (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> arent they suppose to put it trading halt as soon as the report is completed and ready for release? i mean imagine how many hands the report will get thru before the market gets it, e.g. secretary, typist, mail boy!



Doesn't have to be a 'trading halt' but all sensitive anns go into preopen once the ASX has them. I thought a 35% increase, after the previous days trading would warrant the ASX to ask for another please explain, or even halt them until they had an answer. Very unusual trading on limited anns. Seems the forums have more info on the company than the ASX has to me. Unless of course it's just speculative buying but that doesn't seem the case.


----------



## charcoal (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi this is my first post...
Im in Japan
Just reading some news now...
Its mitsubishi again, building a pig iron processing plant near perth....

Wow


----------



## Pommiegranite (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charcoal said:


> Hi this is my first post...
> Im in Japan
> Just reading some news now...
> Its mitsubishi again, building a pig iron processing plant near perth....
> ...





Hey Charcoal...............Do you have a link...in english please? Is Ferrowest mentioned in the report?


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charcoal said:


> Hi this is my first post...
> Im in Japan
> Just reading some news now...
> Its mitsubishi again, building a pig iron processing plant near perth....
> ...




have u got a link for this story? or is it js a rumour. i dont think there are many MPI producers around, that could be the reason?


----------



## charcoal (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Goddam, I am really sorry guys...I was just doing searches...Its old news , about 5 years old..

Just saw the date!

Sorry


----------



## Pommiegranite (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charcoal said:


> Goddam, I am really sorry guys...I was just doing searches...Its old news , about 5 years old..
> 
> Just saw the date!
> 
> Sorry





Good work Charcoal.

I also read that there's an industrial revolution happening in England.....hold on let me check the date


----------



## charcoal (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well my first attempt to contribute was a total failure...
I did a search based on pig iron/west australia etc...saw article about how 
mitsubishi anounced on the 22nd that they were going to build this pig iron plant....

just happened to be 22 April, 2002.

Please don't beat me up too much.


----------



## Pommiegranite (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charcoal said:


> Well my first attempt to contribute was a total failure...
> I did a search based on pig iron/west australia etc...saw article about how
> mitsubishi anounced on the 22nd that they were going to build this pig iron plant....
> 
> ...




No worries Charcoal...welcome onboard....you just caught me at an excitable time.

At least you attempted research....which is what we all want.


----------



## charcoal (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thanks pommiegranite,

obviously i got a little excitable myself...
felt pretty stupid for a little bit, but the SP keeps a smile on my face...
sure we will all find out what is going on in a short while.


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hey guys, i think the SP is starting to settle a bit, the buying frenzy is gone. there could be a late afternoon spike, i think there is the possibility that the company has sent in the annoucement to ASX, so it should be up by early monday morning, fingers n toes crossed!


----------



## giss (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I got in late & though I had missed the boat. It has just kept going though. There is just not many sellers.


----------



## toc_bat (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hi all 

at the risk making you all yawn,

why is FWLs 25ish% Fe so popular, I remember when YMLs 58% odd Fe was released a lot of people said ho hum was expecting 60%+,

why the huge discrepency, is just that FWL have so much of it? or so close to the surface?

bye all


----------



## juw177 (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

This is running too hard and something doesnt feel right so I joined the profit takers when it went over 72c. Might try to get in again if it retraces.


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> hi all
> 
> at the risk making you all yawn,
> 
> ...




FWL is alot closer to production than YML, and they r producing Merchant Pig Iron which is around 96% pure iron, said to be in high demand. AND its also close to infrastructures n ports. im aiming the re-rating at $100m, which makes it $1!

EDIT:duh ignore this.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> FWL really is holding up well, but that was to be expected given the news I discovered, anyway just goes to show what a tight share registry can do as a result of the top 20 holding 80%
> 
> The stock opened just above 50c today and now there's over 300k on the bid above 50c!
> 
> I can't wait to see the chart in 2 weeks time to see just when and where it consolidated




It opened at 55c, now there's 650k+ above 55c!

I really think the run will continue, there's continued buying and the sellers are absent!



ALFguy said:


> Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing?



Was he from Pato's or Hartleys?
LOL


----------



## mick2006 (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> FWL is alot closer to production than YML, and they r producing Merchant Pig Iron which is around 96% pure iron, said to be in high demand. AND its also close to infrastructures n ports. im aiming the re-rating at $100m, which makes it $1!
> 
> EDIT: Sorry i forgot to mention that they have the backing of Malaysian firm Lion Group.




Sorry to correct you UPKA it is POL that has the backing of the large Malaysian Lion Group.

But you are certainly correct in saying that Pig Iron is in increasing demand.


----------



## UPKA (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



mick2006 said:


> Sorry to correct you UPKA it is POL that has the backing of the large Malaysian Lion Group.
> 
> But you are certainly correct in saying that Pig Iron is in increasing demand.




hahaha must've got my head mixed by all these excitment... my statement has been corrected. thanks buddy

just to give POL a mention here, its Poondano is in a more advanced stage than FWL, will be in production soon. im keeping it closely under my radar.


----------



## Caliente (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

haha yes, I've picked up a roll of the POL as well!

Iron Ore is going ballistic - why not enjoy the ride while Yellowcake takes a breather =)


----------



## Ruprect (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Caliente said:


> haha yes, I've picked up a roll of the POL as well!
> 
> Iron Ore is going ballistic - why not enjoy the ride while Yellowcake takes a breather =)




Its amazing isnt it to watch which commodity is running hot in which week. A couple of months ago it was Uranium, then copper, then nickel, now its iron ore. Then again, you could say they have all been running hot, its just a matter of picking which one runs hotter than the rest in which week. If Fission had of listed 3 months ago, it probably would have opened close to $1. Had to settle for 26 cents. Throw Iron Ore or Tin on to the market now is probably the way to go.

I didnt think FWL would run all day, only took a couple of very minor breathers and finished strongly. I took a little bit profit, now free hold and then some, which isnt bad for a week. And i actually didnt need to sell that many to freehold. So thanks again YT! Seriously.

Has something really leaked or is it just speculation in the lead up to the announcement? The volume, whilst high for the stock, isnt extraodinary, but i suppose maybe thats what happens when a stock is tightly held, and sellers are thin. 

Whatever happens, given that the announcement should be out in the next week, in theory there shouldnt be much of a retrace, with the possibility that the sp could hit an even higher mark.


----------



## krisbarry (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Got into the oppies (FWLO) today for a quick trade in at 42 and out at 47.  Made a profit of $475 so I am happy to walk away now.  It really has run very hard.


----------



## YELNATS (22 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Got into the oppies (FWLO) today for a quick trade in at 42 and out at 47.  Made a profit of $475 so I am happy to walk away now.  It really has run very hard.




Tried to pick up the oppies late yesterday at 29c but too ambitious and missed out. However, figured this was a "must have" stock so made a belated entry late today at 44c. If it retraces, no worries, it will be a chance to top up. regards YN.


----------



## Bazmate (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

On the move again this morning. I was a bit worried that my trade hadn't closed out on Friday at 74c but now it's gone through and the sp continues up with bugger all on the sell side.... I almost feel duped for selling.


----------



## woksta (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

They are going great guns - and no announcement as yet either!
I was lucky enough to get in at mid-20's, and then I thought I was too late.  
Here's hoping market sentiment stays positive after announcement is released.  
Iron ore is hot at the moment - look at POL today as well.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> It opened at 55c, now there's 650k+ above 55c!
> 
> I really think the run will continue, there's continued buying and the sellers are absent!




And so it has, amazing, simply amazing, it looks to have slowed for today, but it may continue to charge up tomorrow like it has over the last few days 

I'd expect $1 to provide resistance, (you'd think) 

Anyway, so people don't lose sight of the fundamentals when making decsions here they are below,

Research, analyse and decide for yourself 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> $200m p.a. US = $250m p.a. AUD (US/AUD 80c)
> 30 yrs = *Gross Cash Flow Total of $7.5Billion*
> 
> Still I prefer to work with the EBIT of $150/t for 500kt's for 30yrs
> ...


----------



## ta2693 (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The performance is so crazy last week that I doubt the buyer is professional trader. Anyway, I am out and made a decent profit in a week. Thank you very much YT.


----------



## Pommiegranite (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



ta2693 said:


> The performance is so crazy last week that I doubt the buyer is professional trader. Anyway, I am out and made a decent profit in a week. Thank you very much YT.




well done...I really hope you've found something better to plough your profits into.

I can't find any...so I'll stick


----------



## Ruprect (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

This stock continues to impress. Although the highs today were tempting, i held, i think the interest will be even greater when the jorc resource comes in. Still only 2 million shares traded. A JORC resource should put more pressure on the stock, given there are so few shares on offer, potentially forcing it closer to that $1 mark. Well, thats my opinion anyway.


----------



## UPKA (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Ruprect said:


> This stock continues to impress. Although the highs today were tempting, i held, i think the interest will be even greater when the jorc resource comes in. Still only 2 million shares traded. A JORC resource should put more pressure on the stock, given there are so few shares on offer, potentially forcing it closer to that $1 mark. Well, thats my opinion anyway.




watching this stock is no diff to the waves at Bondi. when a big purchase order is filled, u'll see a wave of investors rushing in to buy, pushing the Sp to a record level, and when someone sells, everyone else starts selling too... very volatile, bt still close in a positive note seeing the rest of the market is down, and metal prices r weak. definitely holding for the announcement.


----------



## prawn_86 (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

is it possible that the ann has already been factored into the share price? due to how much it has risen lately.

could we see fairly unimpressive trading when the ann comes out, or will it bring this stock to the attention of more people? and therefore cause a further rise


----------



## UPKA (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



prawn_86 said:


> is it possible that the ann has already been factored into the share price? due to how much it has risen lately.
> 
> could we see fairly unimpressive trading when the ann comes out, or will it bring this stock to the attention of more people? and therefore cause a further rise




from YT's analysis, at the current level, the market cap should be be around 50m (60c) minimum, some broker has quoted 100m ($1.20), and thats pre JORC. so i believe the Ann will push it a lil higher, depending on the outcome.


----------



## Ruprect (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Agreed, if the estimation is correct, we may yet be still undervalued.

I also think, (and this is only my opinion, happy to stand corrected), that there is often not a great deal of factoring when it comes to small cap, spec stocks. Its a little too sophisticated certainly for the short term holders anyway. Long term may be different.

If a good announcement comes, people generally will want the stock and will push it up from its previous close. Some of them just playing by the day/days, some of them buying for a longer hold. 

I think the resource ann, with a potential for an even higher resource down the track, combined with the pre feas in a few weeks will lead to some good trade in this one over the coming weeks.


----------



## giss (25 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The stock's had a stella run! A day of consolidation is always epected. Had a new high thrown in for good measure!


----------



## Fool (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



giss said:


> The stock's had a stella run! A day of consolidation is always epected. Had a new high thrown in for good measure!




I put today retraction/consolidation to day traders from Friday that were expecting the ann to come out today for some quick cash.


----------



## UPKA (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hey guys, can a chart guru post a graph up? what price are we looking at for resistance? it all seem like a bubble to me, might burst if someone decided to sell big...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> hey guys, can a chart guru post a graph up? what price are we looking at for resistance? it all seem like a bubble to me, might burst if someone decided to sell big...




Then I suggest you take some profits,

I'm waiting for the JORC to see how the mkt takes it, I see support at 55c and 70c-75c resistance 95c-$1

Working hard guys to find the next fundamentally undervalued Iron Ore Gem


----------



## toc_bat (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Then I suggest you take some profits,
> 
> I'm waiting for the JORC to see how the mkt takes it, I see support at 55c and 70c-75c resistance 95c-$1
> 
> Working hard guys to find the next fundamentally undervalued Iron Ore Gem




hi YT

i assume you mean 55c support for FWLO, and 70-75c for FWL or are you saying support somewhere in the band of 55-75c for FWL?

bye man and thanks for sharing your research,


----------



## UPKA (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

the sell off was by small players in very small quantity, i think they have lost patience, with a positive annoucement, i can see the SP hitting the high 90s again. might hold on till after teh ann.


----------



## INORE (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I still hold as well...plan on holding half till after this weeks announce and the other half till after feas study announce and perhaps beyond that....this is where i often make the mistake of selling ALL my stock on a quick profit without contemplating the full implications and growth possibilities of a fundementally well positioned company especially when i know how much money the majors like Rio/FMG and BHPB are still ploughing into expansions...and i also know that there are currently studies under way which take their expansion projects even further that won't be finished until 2011.  Surely with these current and long-term expansions these 3 majors know that the need for iron-ore is expected for a long and strong time to come yet.  Any small projects that get of the ground that have the dirt that Asia needs will surely also thrive if their infrastructure costs can be kept down.


----------



## alanding (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Then I suggest you take some profits,
> 
> I'm waiting for the JORC to see how the mkt takes it, I see support at 55c and 70c-75c resistance 95c-$1
> 
> Working hard guys to find the next fundamentally undervalued Iron Ore Gem




I am buying in @76. And will hold and make profit. Thank for Y_T's hard working. FWL is a gold stock.


----------



## krisbarry (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Whoops....down she goes... many are now sitting on losses, and with tax loss selling going on I reckon we will see FWL finish much lower over coming days


----------



## UPKA (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Whoops....down she goes... many are now sitting on losses, and with tax loss selling going on I reckon we will see FWL finish much lower over coming days




well the ann is due anyday now, only 3 working days till July, so has to be this week. and that'll change everything.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Got into the oppies (FWLO) today for a quick trade in at 42 and out at 47.  Made a profit of $475 so I am happy to walk away now.  It really has run very hard.




Whoops .... looks like someone sold out way to early for such a tiny profit ... lol ... now looks like someone is envious of current levels 



Stop_the_clock said:


> Whoops....down she goes... many are now sitting on losses, and with tax loss selling going on I reckon we will see FWL finish much lower over coming days




Many are sitting on losses? What planet are you from, most on ASF had the priviledge of buying under 50c, most really at 25c-32c


----------



## Fool (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Whoops....down she goes... many are now sitting on losses, and with tax loss selling going on I reckon we will see FWL finish much lower over coming days




http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=500321#1900702

I think this deserves a ban for downramping.

I would have ignored it had you only posted it once, but posting it across many boards it's obvious that your only intention is downramping this stock.


----------



## ta2693 (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

There is no point of ramping here. I find the power of ASF member is very limited. Most of us are only small potato.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=500321#1900702
> 
> I think this deserves a ban for downramping.
> 
> I would have ignored it had you only posted it once, but posting it across many boards it's obvious that your only intention is downramping this stock.




Thanks Fool, so *Stop the Clock* your *Krissbarry?* lol you are so so sad my friend so so sad,

You made $500 day trading this stock, yet you have been bagging it from day 1 when it was 20c, this is why guys like me make more in one day then guys like you make in 1 yr, here's some finanacial advice for you stoppy, don't give up your day job because your going to need it!

I apologise to the rest of ASF for this post, but I had to get it off my chest, guys like Stop p1ss me off something shocking, 

All he's done is down ramp the stock from day 1, yet he did in fact trade it, he provides no fundamental analysis,


----------



## Ruprect (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Got to agree fool. Im not quite sure who would be selling down for a loss, when the announcement of JORC is due before the end of the fin year. So why sell over the next few days for a TAX loss, when you could make a potential gain, realised in the next fin year, thus not taxable for another 12 months. People always overestimate the benefits of a tax loss.

And the most important point, as picked up by YT, is that most people who are in FWL are sitting on a very healthy gain. The only time it has hit above the current sp was briefly on Friday, and much of yesterday. With a total of just over 2mil shares traded yesterday, and most of them looking at a potential rise in coming days, there wouldnt be very many who have these shares at a loss, and those that do probably dont want to sell in the short term.


----------



## nomore4s (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Whoops....down she goes... many are now sitting on losses, and with tax loss selling going on I reckon we will see FWL finish much lower over coming days




lol, you make me laugh STP, the stock is down by a whole 2% and the oppies a whole 5%, after the stock trippled in a week and a bit. There was always going to be some sort of pullback after running so hard.
Is this like the May correction? You're out so you want it to crash to justify you being out? Typical if you can't have it no one else should either!

I don't think too many of the people that brought in at higher levels are going to sell out before the ann, I'm sure they have reasons for purchasing and I don't think those reasons have changed just yet.


----------



## Joe Blow (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Whoops....down she goes... many are now sitting on losses, and with tax loss selling going on I reckon we will see FWL finish much lower over coming days




Kris, consider yourself warned. Your post is a clear, unashamed downramp with no detail or attempt at any kind of analysis. I would remove it but it has been quoted so many times it would be pointless exercise.

Needless to say, I do not want to see any more of these kind of posts out of you. Go post it at HC instead.


----------



## INORE (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hypothesising.....if u're company had a positive announcement would there be any company SP benefit if you were to release it a day or so before the end of fin year or would you release it on new years eve?  and vica versa...if it was a negative announcement...  any thoughts????


----------



## Awesomandy (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Ruprect said:


> Im not quite sure who would be selling down for a loss, when the announcement of JORC is due before the end of the fin year. So why sell over the next few days for a TAX loss, when you could make a potential gain, realised in the next fin year, thus not taxable for another 12 months. People always overestimate the benefits of a tax loss.




I do that sometimes for some of the losses. Although, for quality stocks, I buy them straight in again immediately, at pretty much the same price. Sometimes, paying the brokerage is better than paying the tax in the current year (but that, of course, is for each individual to work out).


----------



## alanding (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

So tiny in volume. I don't think it will recession. Just some un-patient holders want a tiny profit. Patient is a virtue


----------



## Pat (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Joe Blow said:


> Kris, consider yourself warned. Your post is a clear, unashamed downramp with no detail or attempt at any kind of analysis. I would remove it but it has been quoted so many times it would be pointless exercise.
> 
> Needless to say, I do not want to see any more of these kind of posts out of you. Go post it at HC instead.



Joe, I'd just like to thank you and all ASF mods etc for keeping this place real. There is no comparison to other forums such as HC. Which is a disgrace!

FWL has held surprisingly well, I'm holding, finding it hard to sell so close to ann. As per depth it looks as though some are taking profits, but there are many buy orders waiting in the high 60 cent range. Dosn't look like anyone wants to sell under 70 cents, only a few thousand sold around that level this morning.... Waiting impatiently


----------



## Caliente (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Didn't think I'd have to come back to post so soon, but the recent movement has been phenomenal really. 

That run to 93.5 was a false start - real HC action there, but once this JORC/study comes out (?positive) then we should easily have the impetus and motive for a 10% NPV valuation or ~100mill.

Although resistance is going to be tough at a dollar, a breach should see FWL settle in the 1.20/1.30's, sooner rather than later.

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## Sean K (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Caliente said:


> Although resistance is going to be tough at a dollar, a breach should see FWL settle in the 1.20/1.30's, sooner rather than later.
> 
> Cheers
> -Cali



Speaking of HotCopperish Cali, where do you get the 1.20-1.30 target from.  Seems a bit 'hot' to me 'Cali'. 

Sorry if you have produced the figures for this valuation previously.


----------



## UPKA (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



kennas said:


> Speaking of HotCopperish Cali, where do you get the 1.20-1.30 target from.  Seems a bit 'hot' to me 'Cali'.
> 
> Sorry if you have produced the figures for this valuation previously.




I think he took YT's valuation of $50m mkt cap @60c, so $100m mkt cap is $1.20. depending on the annoucenemtn, bt i think the current SP has incoporated that into the the price already, so we dont see the huge jumps as we have over the last few days.


----------



## Fool (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Thanks Fool, so *Stop the Clock* your *Krissbarry?* lol you are so so sad my friend so so sad,
> 
> You made $500 day trading this stock, yet you have been bagging it from day 1 when it was 20c, this is why guys like me make more in one day then guys like you make in 1 yr, here's some finanacial advice for you stoppy, don't give up your day job because your going to need it!
> 
> ...




Krisbarry / stop_the_clock you have lost all credibility here and on every other forum.

Give up your games - no one will bother listening from now on.


----------



## YELNATS (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Thanks Fool, so *Stop the Clock* your *Krissbarry?* lol you are so so sad my friend so so sad,
> 
> You made $500 day trading this stock, yet you have been bagging it from day 1 when it was 20c, this is why guys like me make more in one day then guys like you make in 1 yr, here's some finanacial advice for you stoppy, don't give up your day job because your going to need it!
> 
> ...




Thanks YT for this post, I've not seen you hot under the collar before, but it was entirely appropriate. 

Along with many others I've invested in FWLO after reading ASF and research elsewhere. It's hard enough to make a quid out of stocks without skulduggery of this type. May I take this opportunity to say how much I've appreciated the thoroughness of your research and your unselfishness in sharing it with us. regards YN.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YELNATS said:


> Thanks YT for this post, I've not seen you hot under the collar before, but it was entirely appropriate.
> 
> Along with many others I've invested in FWLO after reading ASF and research elsewhere. It's hard enough to make a quid out of stocks without skulduggery of this type. May I take this opportunity to say how much I've appreciated the thoroughness of your research and your unselfishness in sharing it with us. regards YN.




Thanks Yelnats, my only regret with FWL was it ran way too soon and so firstly I was not able to get my position and secondly ASF'ers couldn't either, but I continued to buy up at 30c-35c once it had risen 50-75% 


FWL has held up amazingly well if you consider it has risen 300% since last week, the mkts reaction to the JORC will be very interesting, it will determine the direction for the next 2 weeks until PFS comes out IMO


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (26 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Ferret's Stock to Watch: FERR0WEST LIMITED
10:00, Tuesday, 26 June 2007

WA EXPLORER WORKING ON FEASIBILITY T0 PRODUCE PIG IRON

Sydney - Tuesday - June 26: (RWE Aust Business News)
****************************************************

OVERVIEW
********

Ferrowest Ltd (ASX:FWL) is developing a project aimed at
producing merchant pig iron from iron resources in Western Australia.
Initial production output is expected to be in the range of 
500,000 to one million tonnes per annum of high-grade merchant pig iron
in a physical form suitable as feed for electric arc and basic oxygen 
furnace steel making.
The project location in Western Australia with its low sovereign 
risk, low-cost energy and existing transport infrastructure facilities 
will ensure that Ferrowest will be a reliable exporter of iron units for 
steel manufacturers in the Asian region.
The primary focus of Ferrowest is the proposed Yalgoo iron
project.
This project aims to investigate, and if feasible, develop a 
500,000 tonnes per annum merchant pig iron production facility in the 
midwest of Western Australia.
Possible product lines include iron concentrates, hot briquetted 
iron (HBI) and merchant pig iron (MPI) in the form of ingots, granules 
or nuggets depending on the technology chosen.
The business plan envisages:
* The mining of 2.4 million tonnes per annum of magnetite from 
the Yogi iron mineralisation, located 14km east of Yalgoo and 233km from
the Port of Geraldton;
* Beneficiation of the magnetite ore to produce 770,000 tonnes 
per annum of concentrate; and
* Conversion of that concentrate into 500,000 tonnes per annum 
of value-added iron product using available or emerging technologies
The Yalgoo iron project has solid project fundamentals, 
combining:
* Location - proximity to a port and relatively short shipping 
distances to Asia;
* Infrastructure - existing key infrastructure; 
* Proposed Process - one of several merchant pig iron-making
technologies; 
* Proposed product - high-grade, high 'value in use' merchant pig
iron; 
* Proposed markets - proximity to growing markets for alternate
sources of iron;
* Potential project lifespan - a large potential magnetite iron 
mineralisation; and
* People - an experienced, multi-disciplined team.
Ferrowest has reported that in Phase 2 drilling results (in-fill 
drilling), it has been consistent with Phase 1.
First representative iron ore concentrate will be sent to Japan 
this month for testing as the pre-feasibility study on Yalgoo iron 
project progressing towards completion.
Meanwhile the market for merchant pig iron remains strong.
Ferrowest reported last month that the Phase 2 drilling program
at Yogi consisted of 26 RC holes (including diamond precollars) for a
total of 4,320m and eight diamond holes for a total of 953.1m.
Work is currently underway to produce the first identified 
mineral resource estimate classified and reported in accordance with the 
JORC Code for the Yogi tenement.
This work should be completed this month and will underpin the
iron ore requirements for the Yalgoo project.
The company is currently preparing the first representative iron
ore concentrate from the Yogi deposit for dispatch to Japan for testing
in both the ITmk3 and FASTMET/FASTMELT merchant pig iron making
technologies.
Ferrowest is continuing to advance the work on the
pre-feasibility study.
While most aspects are well advanced, the high demand on
laboratory time in Western Australia at the moment due to the resources
boom has delayed completion of the study, which is now expected to be
finalised in the next quarter.

SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS
*********************

Shares of Ferrowest yesterday rose 3.5c to 75c. High for the 
year is 93.5 and low 17c. The company has 25.7 million shares on issue 
with a market cap of $19.3 million.
On June 20, Kobe Steel (the developer of the ITmk3 iron making 
technology) and Cleveland Cliffs said they had struck a deal that will 
see the first full scale ITmk3 plant built in the USA.
The ITmk3 technology is the preferred technology of four 
possible processes being considered by Ferrowest.
Ferrowest welcomes this development as a positive step toward 
the commercialisation of the ITmk3 technology.
The ITmk3 technology produces merchant pig iron (MPI) in the 
form of 96pc Fe iron nuggets that are very easy to handle, store and 
transport.
It is also a premium product for end users (primarily electric 
arc furnace steel makers) due to its very low contaminant levels and 
high storage density.
The MPI price C&F in South Korea/Japan for June is $US395 per 
tonne which is 30 per cent higher than the long-term price assumptions 
used by Ferrowest in its Scoping Study for the Yalgoo project in 
December.
Ferrowest plans to produce 500,000 tonnes per annum of MPI from 
Yalgoo.
The company remains very confident about its strategy to target 
MPI as its primary product and believes that developments in the world 
steel market are continuing to vindicate its business plan.
Ferrowest still expects to release its first resource estimate
for the Yogi iron ore deposit before the end of this month. 
Also, the company expects the pre-feasibility study to be
completed before the end of July.
The Yogi iron ore deposit underpins the proposed Yalgoo iron 
project.
Following the release of regional aeromagnetic surveys by the 
Department of Industry & Resources, the company identified a possible
extension of the Yogi deposit to the north of its existing granted tenure
and has applied for an exploration licence over the area 
that is contiguous with its current tenement package.
This has the potential to add about 3km to the existing 27km 
strike length at Yogi.

BACKGROUND
**********

Ferrowest Ltd joined the ASX list in July 2006. 
The company has been developing the Yalgoo iron project, aimed at
producing merchant pig iron from the Yogi magnetite mineralisation near
Yalgoo.
Proposed initial production is 500,000 tonnes per annum.
The plan to process the iron ore to pig iron on the mine site is
premised on emerging mine site-based technologies and excellent existing
infrastructure servicing the site.
The resulting value-added merchant pig iron product will be a 
relatively high-margin, high-quality, low-volume product for export to 
electric arc and basic oxygen furnace steel making plants worldwide.
ENDS


----------



## krisbarry (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Some people are now sitting on losses of more than 27%.  FWL went to its high of 93.5 cents, and now its down to 68 cents, so with that in mind I would like to again re-enforce my view that FWL, has run way too hard, too fast and needs to consolidate. I am sure 9/10 people will disagree with me, but again thats my view!


----------



## alanding (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yes. It ran too fast, now in correction. But don't lose confidence. And do not only focus on SP only. Have look at the volume.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Stop_the_clock said:


> Some people are now sitting on losses of more than 27%.  FWL went to its high of 93.5 cents, and now its down to 68 cents, so with that in mind I would like to again re-enforce my view that FWL, has run way too hard, too fast and needs to consolidate. I am sure 9/10 people will disagree with me, but again thats my view!




Look what your saying is true it ran up way too hard and way too fast, but the fact is a) it did run up and b) its still holding onto alot of its gains, looks to be consolidating around 70c for now,

That being said, you have down ramped this stock from day 1 under a different alias on Hotcopper so hence any attempt you make now to post properly will be met by crticism.



alanding said:


> Yes. It ran too fast, now in correction. But don't lose confidence. And do not only focus on SP only. Have look at the volume.




Exactly,

The mkts reaction to the JORC imo will direct the movements in the next 2-3weeks IMO until PFS


----------



## Ruprect (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yeah, Good on ya Stop. A grand total of 92k sold today with virutally no sellers up to 80c. What it shows is that people are actually holding. And not selling. We have  JORC resource coming soon, followed by a pre feas.

The next little while promises to be interesting for FWL.

But seriously though, and i do like to be serious, with a claim to fame of having made a whopping $475 (yes, theres no more 000's on that), where will that get you a deposit for a house? Nepal? Mongolia?

We are here for some decent commentary, you have yet to add anything useful.


----------



## prawn_86 (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

i think that we all know what STC/krisbarrys intentions are so now that he has being exposed not many of his comments will be taken seriously.

as for FWL, i believe that it will hold 65c at the absolute lowest, due to what has been mentioned previously, volume, holders, JORC etc etc


----------



## toc_bat (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi all

I have read the anns and listened to the board room radio interviews and FWL has been quite confident and clear that the JORC will be annd by the end of June.

hmmm, june 27 today, maybe they wanna go down to the wire on it,

has anyone rang the company on this? does someone want to? not only am i in england and ive never rung a company before and dont really know how to go about asking that sort of thing, as divulging that sort of info would surely have to be against asx rules, which is why id feel a bit strange in asking in the first place,

maybe i should start a thread on how to ring management and the psychology on schmoozing price sensitive info out of them, as some of the posts that ive read over the last year boasting of the highly sensitive info that the poster has got (of the sort that should be released by asx ann to everyone), simply just by ringing and asking, often make wonder whether the poster is making it up or whether management of company abc can be so slack, 

ok im off to bed, 2.32 am now


----------



## Pat (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I'm not too sure if FWL is retracing/correcting? The chart looks sweet to me, sure it went crazy on Monday, and now it's back to reasonable levels in a couple of days. 
Now I was way late catching on to this and feeling very comfortable all the same. Wish I got out in the 80-90 cent then buy back in but that's hindsight for you. 
SP is riding the top B band to me, MACD looks great and not overbought on slow stochastic. As I said FWL looks sweet to me!!! 
Depth is lacking the excitement of last week, I wonder how long this selling will continue?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (27 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pat said:


> I'm not too sure if FWL is retracing/correcting? The chart looks sweet to me, sure it went crazy on Monday, and now it's back to reasonable levels in a couple of days.
> Now I was way late catching on to this and feeling very comfortable all the same. Wish I got out in the 80-90 cent then buy back in but that's hindsight for you.
> SP is riding the top B band to me, MACD looks great and not overbought on slow stochastic. As I said FWL looks sweet to me!!!
> Depth is lacking the excitement of last week, I wonder how long this selling will continue?




Hey Pat I think FWL has held up well considering the steep rise its had, the JORC ann should be out tomorrow or Firday as the MD was sure it would be out before the end of the month,

It looks to me like the holders are holding, a few nervous nellies selling and the buyers waiting, JORC will hold the key


----------



## alanding (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

http://www.doir.wa.gov.au/documents/investment/dripigironJan06.pdf

Have a look at this. Maybe helpful

Pig iron has traditionally been produced in large-scale blast
furnaces. There are now emerging a number of competing
technologies to the blast furnace, a number of which use coal as
a reductant. There is not a requirement of coking coal for most
of these processes. Low quality and priced, non-coking coals
can be used. Examples of such processes include HIsmelt being
developed in joint venture by Rio Tinto; Ausmelt and the Midrex,
ITMk3 Fastmet and Fastmelt processes. The new technologies
promise to provide routes to produce pig iron in relatively smallscale
plants, although progressive scale-ups approaching blast
furnace equivalent outputs are being developed.


----------



## UPKA (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Still no annoucement yet, the MD probably want to leave it till the last day of the Financial yr so all profits can be carried over. if nothing is released during the day, there will probably another buying rush towards the close, in anticipation of the JORC statement. we may be a weak opening toady, thinking of topping up, 65.5c looks attractive.


----------



## toc_bat (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

upka

i have to admit i am a bit nervous as believe it or not i am managing to sit on a loss here, hesitated on friday and then was watching it run on monday and bought some, 

fwl wont be the first co in history to fail to release an ann by a stated due date, at the end of the day all of there statements about its timing were only confident of its release by june, after all they are not legally not even morally under obligation to do so, hence am bit worried if they dont the price will slowly decline, 

anyway im waiting like the rest of us all - so heres hoping

ps and after all there is no guarantee the the ann will be what everyone was hoping for, seen that happen too a few times


----------



## prawn_86 (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

i too am also sitting on a small loss (bought at 69c) but am confident at the companies long term fundamentals.
If this next announcement has already been factored in to the price i am happy to hold over the next couple years, which i was probably going to do anyway.


----------



## alanding (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

CUL is burning
But FWL is in a antarctic. Hope the announcement will give out today or tomorrow
amazing.


----------



## toc_bat (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hey i just rang the company (small pat on back - first time) and spoke to  - what was his name? - anyway i asked if they still will be releasing the jORC ann by the end of june and got a firm "yes",

so either today or tomorrow then i asked,

"that is the plan, yes" was the second reply

so either way we dont have long to wait then


----------



## prawn_86 (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> Still no annoucement yet, the MD probably want to leave it till the last day of the Financial yr so all profits can be carried over




I would not be at all suprised to see this situation happen.


----------



## toc_bat (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



			
				UPKA said:
			
		

> Still no annoucement yet, the MD probably want to leave it till the last day of the Financial yr so all profits can be carried over




Upka, Prawn ..

I dont understand this statement or the motivation to so with the ann, are you saying they expect the market will react poorly? So that they can sell in the new fin year? If they expected it to react well it would not make a difference when its released.


----------



## prawn_86 (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> Upka, Prawn ..
> 
> I dont understand this statement or the motivation to so with the ann, are you saying they expect the market will react poorly? So that they can sell in the new fin year? If they expected it to react well it would not make a difference when its released.




in my opiniopn it is more just a psychological (is that how you spell it?) thing. People are wary about buying and selling near the end of the FY for tax purposes and general market sentiment.

is they wait till friday and all the sales go through on monday then it will all be classed in FY08 and people will not have to make any tax decisions until this time next year.

but hey, im just an amatuer so what would i kno really? lol


----------



## Ruprect (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> hey i just rang the company (small pat on back - first time) and spoke to  - what was his name? - anyway i asked if they still will be releasing the jORC ann by the end of june and got a firm "yes",
> 
> so either today or tomorrow then i asked,
> 
> ...




Good - Announcement today or tomorrow makes sense based on the director's interview just last Thursday where he was quite clear that the jorc would be released by the end of June.


----------



## UPKA (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

annoucement out, good grade 67% fe, bt why is it soo brief? im sure that the MD can elaborate a bit more than that...


----------



## Ruprect (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Just a confirmation of the samples sent off to Japan for testing. Shows that there is some good work being done over there in the offices of FWL.

I think this announcement was a little teaser...the next one shouldnt be far away...


----------



## prawn_86 (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

yeh im a bit confused now 

was this the ann that everyone was waiting for, because it isnt anything that special, so it seems the price has already factored it in.

or will there be another ann in the next week or so with un update on those results?


----------



## Ruprect (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

No, we are waiting on the first JORC resource. Which FWL was hoping would be around 75mt from memory. That will be followed in a few weeks by results of the pre feas study.

This announcment, while good, isnt price sensitve. The next one will be!


----------



## prawn_86 (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

ok thats what i thought. will be interesting to see if it is out tomorrow

thanks

and thanks again to get the message accepted


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> annoucement out, good grade 67% fe, bt why is it soo brief? im sure that the MD can elaborate a bit more than that...






Ruprect said:


> Just a confirmation of the samples sent off to Japan for testing. Shows that there is some good work being done over there in the offices of FWL.
> 
> I think this announcement was a little teaser...the next one shouldnt be far away...




Exactly thats all it was an ann to confirm that the samples have been sent of to Japan's Kobe Steel for testing weakening slightly today, but all in all still holding up amazingly well given the steep rise


----------



## Pat (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Such total lack of interest today  I was expecting a little more shares traded. With the "forumites", lol, and the market expecting the JORC to be released tomorrow the volume today has me worried. It would seem 65 cents is acting like short term support not dipping below this. I'm thinking if it falls further than this we may see the 50's again.
Anyone think the SP has finished correcting?


----------



## Fool (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yeah maybe, but you always have the people sitting on the sidelines waiting to see the JORC upgrade before putting their money where their mouth is.

I was surprised that there wasn't more volume go through today but then again it was a mexican standoff all morning until a $1700 buy went through.

Even then, there was NOTHING for ages, so I think the sales that went through were SELLERS getting out, not buyers getting on.

I think the holders are holding for July (or tomorrow) and the buyers that are left are sitting and waiting for the announcement before making a decision.

Either way, I would hold until July for the next announcement after this one.


----------



## Pommiegranite (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> Yeah maybe, but you always have the people sitting on the sidelines waiting to see the JORC upgrade before putting their money where their mouth is.
> 
> I was surprised that there wasn't more volume go through today but then again it was a mexican standoff all morning until a $1700 buy went through.
> 
> ...




Also, this stock isn't liquid enough for daytraders. This is a good thing for those who are long.

Many investors aren't as speculative as us ASFers and wait until major steps are made before investing. 

IMO a bigger than expected JORC will be step 1. 
& The PFS will be the major news which draws in major investors.


----------



## kevinecom (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Look what your saying is true it ran up way too hard and way too fast, but the fact is a) it did run up and b) its still holding onto alot of its gains, looks to be consolidating around 70c for now,
> 
> That being said, you have down ramped this stock from day 1 under a different alias on Hotcopper so hence any attempt you make now to post properly will be met by crticism.
> 
> ...




Yount Trader,
Do you mind I ask what other undervalue Iron ores stock u hold 
U're correct with FWL,  with your analysis.


----------



## Solaris (28 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi YT
I am new to this forum.
Have watched some of your shares that you researched and kindly posted in this forum.
I have to congratulate you in your stock picking skills.

I have been watching SDL for a while since last year.I do not hold SDL though.
Do you have any valuation on SDL?
I understand this thread is meant for FWL.
Any input would be very much appreciated.

Cheers
Solaris

P.S currently hold CTS,MLS and THR.
I am not asking for advice, just your thoughts.Thanks


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



kevinecom said:


> Yount Trader,
> Do you mind I ask what other undervalue Iron ores stock u hold
> U're correct with FWL,  with your analysis.




YML, HLX (yet to be fully proven to having an Iron Ore deposit), FWL (obviously, and my new one is CUL



Solaris said:


> Do you have any valuation on SDL?




No idea, its outta my league, mkt cap is well above $750m, there must be plenty of analyst valuatiions on it etc, I find the sub $100m undiscovered Gems


----------



## Fool (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Announcement is out: 112.5Mt @ 25.3% Fe.

This is 10km of the total 27km strike length, I can't see anything else of interest other then that.



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> To begin with the JORC should be 75Mt@25%Fe = 30yrs mine life
> But it could be 2-3 times as big = 60yrs - 90yrs mine life or ramp up production!




So I think we need an update YT ?


----------



## Ruprect (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well, how about that! A company that delivers on their promised announcements and on time. Im impressed.

FWL were hoping for 75mt, came up with 112.5mt. And this is only one third of the deposit drilled! So, theres more to come.

More drilling this year, and the completion of the pre feas by the end of July. Not bad at all.


----------



## alanding (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

exciting. Thanks Y_T again. it is his analysis which attract my eyes on. Though I am in a little bit late. But I think I still can make some profit.


----------



## UPKA (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Ruprect said:


> Well, how about that! A company that delivers on their promised announcements and on time. Im impressed.
> 
> FWL were hoping for 75mt, came up with 112.5mt. And this is only one third of the deposit drilled! So, theres more to come.
> 
> More drilling this year, and the completion of the pre feas by the end of July. Not bad at all.




certainly impressive report, now we have to see how the market will react, i certainly dont want to sell as it is the last day of this FY! 

btw what is the Inferred (Transitional) Resource? they have indicated that its _"material that is partially oxidised but magnetite bearing"_, what does that mean?


----------



## mobcat (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Wow guys this is big news this sector is on the boil and head office has timed it to a tee to deliver a better than expected ann with a mine life of twenty years plus we are  guaranteed the latest techo recovery gear to fully value add to the base fe now and this will put fwl in the league it deseves now this is a good thing to be on atm very happy with the news bring it on fwl and this is only 10ks of it still got 15ks in the back pocket


----------



## Fool (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Check out the buy side - 9am and it's already at 80c.

Can't wait for 9:59 - will be very interesting to see how the market see's this stock with a bigger then expected initial estimate.


----------



## toc_bat (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hi all

one or 2 of may have noticed im a bit of a durhead when it comes to trading/investing, hence im currently sitting on a loss - did he say loss? but were all on 100%plus???,

but this ann is pretty good, i expect this to hold its current price reasonably well and perhaps gain steadily, anyway obviously it has lots of potential,

one good thing about being so tightly held was just how few people were willing to sell over the last week, so let me take this opportunity to offer all the AFSers a middie of beer when i come back to Australia if they keep holding, i reckon ASFers must own a good 30%  of the 20% of shares not in the top 20 holders hands, (if not 50%! hey doesn't YT have about a million? i reckon it wont be long when he starts to fill out those 2%+ significant holding forms - but will we know his name?), just think if we all collude (hang on thats illegal so lets not) and hold then well just think .... - ok make that a schooner, 2 schooners for YT!

bye

all and thanks 

ps what r schooners called in victoria again? pots?


----------



## juw177 (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I think the trading this week has already factored the ann into the price. The share price was still dropping yesterday even when people knew the ann was definitely coming out today (if we believed the MD). So I am going to be careful here.


----------



## juw177 (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I think the trading this week has already factored the ann into the price. The share price was still dropping yesterday even when people knew the ann was definitely coming out today (if we believed the MD). But the ann may be better than what was expected. Still should be careful here.


----------



## Ruprect (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

yes, very very tightly held. The beauty about this announcement is that its the last day of the fin year on the market. A lot of those on big profits may not want to sell today, ie will prefer to realise profit in next fin year. In addition, this hasnt been heavily day traded over the last few days due to the lack of volume so we wont see that selling pressure.

There are those who will be waiting for either Monday, or more likely, the medium to longer term - the pre feas at the end of july and further drilling. This JORC is only the first step in the process. Much more to come!!

(And yes, pots, although smaller, but thankfully we do have schooners in Victoria now...as a Sydney lad, thats nice to see!)


----------



## Fool (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



juw177 said:


> I think the trading this week has already factored the ann into the price. The share price was still dropping yesterday even when people knew the ann was definitely coming out today (if we believed the MD). But the ann may be better than what was expected. Still should be careful here.




But do you think the trading has already factored the 1.5x expected resource ?

Everyone expected 75Mt and they've thrown 112.5Mt at us.

It's gone up and dropped back, it was sold down yesterday ON VERY LOW volume, we're talking like 90,000$ on the options and probably $140,000 ish on the heads.

Yesterday was people thinking the announcement was not coming and selling because they were scared.

Today you -should- see the more cautious investors moving in because the resource is now announced, and they'll move in and hold.

I really can't see FWL going down today, especially with the PFS due in July and profit takers wanting to wait until Monday to sell because of the financial year.


----------



## UPKA (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I dont think there will be a significant jump today, bt metal price is up overnite, so we will see it getting pushed a bit higher. wat this baby need is a bit of publicity, a short feature in the Financial Reviews would be excellent


----------



## UPKA (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

doesnt look too bright today, the volume was low, so was the buying interests. looks like the market is expecting alot better result than this....


----------



## Ruprect (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

A lot better result? the company was targetting 75mt, they came in with 112.5mt. I dont think the market could have expected as good as that!

No, such low volume today so far, only 291k turned over in first 40mins, i dont think theres a whole lot we can read into that. Give it a little bit of time.


----------



## INORE (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

_“We have been in operation for only 11 months and started the Yalgoo Iron Project with no resources and no drilling of our own. Our target for this first Resource Estimate had been 75 million tonnes and so we are very pleased with the actual result. Securing sufficient resources to underpin the Yalgoo Iron Project’s requirements for a 20+ year operation is a key building block in the Project’s development.
In fact, with a further two thirds of the deposit yet to be drilled, the total resource potential is no longer an issue for us. We will continue to explore the deposit into the future but with an aim now of identifying the most economic sections of the deposit.” Ferrowest Managing Director,_

Sounds like the feas study will be positive as they are saying they have got the resources for project development. As a  holder...i'm very pleased with this announce.  Perhaps what we are seeing now is a few people jumping who expected a huge spike in SP, once these speculators jump ship we should see the SP go forward at a steady pace.


yeah and price falls as i type... can someone tell me its jus cos its the end of the fin year....


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Like I said guys, the mkts reaction to the JORC will tell us alot, looks like it may weaken, but it may not, I see next support around 55c

The PFS is the next major ann which we can expect in 2-3weeks 

Given I was expecting a JORC of 75Mt and this JORC is 112.5Mt ie = 50% More than expected, = Instead of 30yr Mine Life it may be 45yrs (50% More)

But I'll wait for the PFS


----------



## Fool (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I beleive we are seeing people who bought at 90c realising a LOSS for this financial year, only to buy straight back in and wait for next years profits.

We may also be seeing fund managers selling to take profits to make their end of year books look "good".

Either way I still anticipate a buy back in the afternoon as people re-enter for the July PFS and further resource upgrades.

Not a big deal IMO, hold tight and wait for the next run.


----------



## prawn_86 (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

looks like its either a june30 sell off or that this ann had already been factored in and any people who have only just noticed it dont wanna jump on cause of how much its run lately.

im happy to see it range here for a while then kick up again in july. well thats the plan anyway


----------



## Pat (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Like I said guys, the mkts reaction to the JORC will tell us alot, looks like it may weaken, but it may not, I see next support around 55c
> 
> The PFS is the next major ann which we can expect in 2-3weeks
> 
> ...



Agree YT, The market aint to intrested in the JORC upgrade, we want the PFS! Some more sideways action to come.


----------



## danewbee (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Like I said guys, the mkts reaction to the JORC will tell us alot, looks like it may weaken, but it may not, I see next support around 55c
> 
> The PFS is the next major ann which we can expect in 2-3weeks
> 
> ...




25.3% Fe grade? Even considered as poor grade in China. By Australian standard, it is waste, not ore. Try to upgrade it into 65%, you need at least 3t of ore to get 1t of sellable products. The mining and processing cost will be huge. 

The BFS will be looks very "attactive", and very "profitable". Cannot wait to see it. 

Cannot fancy the profitability.


----------



## Ruprect (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Danewbee, Its Magnetite, which will be converted using new technologies to a value added product, merchant pig iron.

Merchant Pig Iron can be a very high margin product.

*Please, if you dont understand, dont post. *

And i might note, 7 posts from you so far, and not one positive comment.


----------



## TheAbyss (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Block his IP host would suffice i think. 

Blissful ignorance, mindless down ramping and a touch of jealousy. What a mix.

Perhaps the commentary could be moved to the jokes and funnies section?


----------



## TheAbyss (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Danewbee - I suggest you have a look at the following documents and they will explain why a low fe% is satisfactory for the project at hand.

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Announcements/2007/ASX Announcement - Assays Phase 1 - 23Mar07.pdf

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Announcements/2006/ASX Announcement Pre-AGM Pres.pdf

I would also recommend you have a listen to the following article for a verbal explanation.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/FWL/2049/23464/wmp/dqcqsbzpv5

Do yourself a favour and take a look, have a listen then come back with any questions you may have and we can all be on the same page.


----------



## danewbee (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> But your the one whose posting random posts, you question the grade without understanding what the company is doing.
> 
> Is it that hard to read through this thread and get a proper understanding of whats going on?
> 
> If you post legitamate questions then I'll treat you legitametely if you just post random negative comments well then this is the treatment you get




Cannot ignore the fact that a 25.3%Fe grade iron ore company want to build pig iron plant, while most other companies with 30%+Fe magnetite will just upgrade the ore, and ship it to China. Why don't they do that?

FWL is assumed to make a lot of money from pig iron making, not on from exporting iorn ore (although the interim plan is to export), it virtually becomes an iron plant with upstream low grade feed stock.

To produce pig iron is total different business from mining. Talking about tough environment approval process,  heavy investment, expose to energy price, available labour and labour cost, and pig iron market price, you should know what you have just invested.

I cannot see they can get $300m+ investment from any bank easily. The banks will ask the same question I asked here.


----------



## kgee (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Granted companies such as GGR send their ore to be proccessed overseas...thats not to say a pig iron plan isn't achievable here....its not out of the question at all their locality is a huge bonus,I'm not sure of the boards experince or resources but if ARH can secure investment from chinese for their project theres no reason why FWL can't ...great location and nearby infrastructure
ps I don't hold but may buy in on any weakness b4 pfs


----------



## Pat (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Cannot ignore the fact that a 25.3%Fe grade iron ore company want to build pig iron plant, while most other companies with 30%+Fe magnetite will just upgrade the ore, and ship it to China. Why don't they do that?
> 
> FWL is assumed to make a lot of money from pig iron making, not on from exporting iorn ore (although the interim plan is to export), it virtually becomes an iron plant with upstream low grade feed stock.
> 
> ...



LOL danewbee, your posts are less "broken", so to speak.... great improvement.
Perhaps you are correct. 
Regardless, FWL went from 20 cents to 93 cents... Has the market gone mad 
The money is made where the money is made. So lets make $$$.
I assume this is YT's only goal, it's certainly my only goal.
When it's time to sell it's time to sell...
So far FWL has made me good profits. What's to down ramp??? 

What is your goal danewbee? You must be short


----------



## doctorj (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Cannot ignore the fact that a 25.3%Fe grade iron ore company want to build pig iron plant, while most other companies with 30%+Fe magnetite will just upgrade the ore, and ship it to China. Why don't they do that?



Who knows why they don't do that - maybe they figure the tonnage is sufficient to warrant a plant and that the premium fetched by the processed iron will offset the upfront cost?



danewbee] To produce pig iron is total different business from mining. Talking about tough environment approval process said:


> 25.3% Fe grade? Even considered as poor grade in China. By Australian standard, it is waste, not ore. Try to upgrade it into 65%, you need at least 3t of ore to get 1t of sellable products. The mining and processing cost will be huge.



I disagree again.  Low grade deposits can be just as profitable as high grade deposits provided they have sufficient size to offset the added cost.  Lower grade deposits require more (or more complex) equipment to process the larger volumes of ore and hence generally more capex.  The capex is apportioned and expensed to each tonne mined, so consider the simplistic fictitious illustration:
Capex: $100m
100mt
Situation A: Grade 25%
Situation B: Grade 50%
In situation A, the capex component of each tonne of iron is $4 and in B $2.  It logically follows that if situation A had twice the tonnage, the expensed portion of the capex per tonne would be the same.

So grade isn't the only the you need to look at. Things like the size of the deposit as above, as well as the depth, the type of ore, impurities and the processing that's required.

The last thing I'll leave you to consider: A very high grade deposit that's deep and small might be worthless.  A low grade deposit that's big and shallow could be worth a fortune.


----------



## YELNATS (29 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



TheAbyss said:


> Block his IP host would suffice i think.
> 
> Blissful ignorance, mindless down ramping and a touch of jealousy. What a mix.
> 
> Perhaps the commentary could be moved to the jokes and funnies section?




Gentlemen/Ladies, judging by his/her nickname, this poster is only a beginner - ie. to be deciphered as "the-newbie". Perhaps we should be a little more welcoming and understanding towards newbies and less willing to condemn if their posts seem somewhat naive. On the other hand if he/she should ever be uncloaked as a charlatan, your vitriol is justified. regards YN


----------



## danewbee (30 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



doctorj said:


> Situation A: Grade 25%
> Situation B: Grade 50%
> In situation A, the capex component of each tonne of iron is $4 and in B $2.  It logically follows that if situation A had twice the tonnage, the expensed portion of the capex per tonne would be the same.




You are the only one that following the rules, no personal attack, no name calling although I pay no attention to this kind of noise. 

YOu might consider this:

Situation A: Grade 1% with 50 times as much resources
Situation B: Grade 50%

According to your study, the capex per tonnne would be the same. 

How about Opex?

It is very clear, FWL will not make good money being an iron ore producer for the reason of low grade ore, which need spending more money to process to higher grade for sell, or iron and steel making.

In stead, the company comes up with an idea of pig iron plant to justify the business case. It could be very successful, and could be a totally failure.

It will be fine if you understand the risk, It is not a blue sky. The management need to prove the capability to handle both mining business and pig iron making business. Otherwise, just remember, there are handreds of pig iron plants in China, Korea, and Japan, if not thousands. What is your advantage over them? And who want more pollution near their backyard?

This is why most iron ore companies, like BHP, RIO, FMG, MGX send most of their ore to China, Korea, and Japan, not to build more plants on Australian soil. 

Good luck with FWL holding. I promise this is my last post if there is no more name calling.


----------



## doctorj (30 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> You are the only one that following the rules, no personal attack, no name calling although I pay no attention to this kind of noise.



I also deleted a couple of your posts for the type of noise you talk about. Let he without sin etc etc.



danewbee said:


> It is very clear, FWL will not make good money being an iron ore producer for the reason of low grade ore, which need spending more money to process to higher grade for sell, or iron and steel making.



Your logic does not follow.  Making less money than you would if it were a higher grade is entirely different to not making money.  You're yet to present any information about why "FWL will not good money".  You state it as fact without any analysis to support.  This is why your posts have upset the locals.  By all means challenge the status quo, but back it up with supporting evidence/calculations, not just gross, incorrect generalisations that might wash on Hotcopper but simply won't here.

I don't hold FWL and never have.


----------



## Fool (30 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> You are the only one that following the rules, no personal attack, no name calling although I pay no attention to this kind of noise.
> 
> YOu might consider this:
> 
> ...




Originally Posted by danewbee  
25.3% Fe grade? Even considered as poor grade in China. By Australian standard, it is waste, not ore. Try to upgrade it into 65%, you need at least 3t of ore to get 1t of sellable products. The mining and processing cost will be huge.

As you stated above you need to move “3t of ore to get 1t of sellable products” , shipping that would incur a high cost that clearly the company has taken into account hence the merchant pig iron.
This is stated in their announcement “

The ITmk3 ® technology produces merchant pig iron (“MPI”) in the form of 96%Fe iron nuggets that are very easy to handle, store and transport. It is also a premium product for end users (primarily electric arc furnace steel makers) due to its very low contaminant levels and high storage density. “

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Announcements/2007/ASX Announcement ITmk3 Developments 20June07.pdf

Also point taken, but they have four backup technologies after ITmk3, so they aren’t playing around, shows good management. 

Originally Posted by danewbee  
“The management need to prove the capability to handle both mining business and pig iron making business”

hope that helps with your questions since you obviously don’t read the announcements.


----------



## Pommiegranite (30 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Here's an appropriate article from CSIRO (The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), which underlines the thought processes behind Ferrowest's Yalgoo project:

What this means for Ferrowest (and I don't think this has ever really disputed by those who have done their research), is that Yalgoo is a risky, yet extremely high reward play). 

It's not free money, but then again, what is?

*Billion-dollar bounty through processing alternative ores*

With a booming iron-ore market and diminishing stocks of high-grade ore, Australian researchers are investigating technologies to ensure cost-effective production of alternative ores. 

The Australian iron-ore industry is on the cusp of a major transformation.
As the high-grade Brockman ores that have underpinned the industry are depleted, alternative ores need to be processed to meet future market demands.

Over the next few years, demand for Australian iron ore is expected to rise by more than 200 million tonnes a year, potentially bringing billion-dollar benefits to an industry already worth more than A$10 billion in annual exports.


*The role of research*

Research conducted by CSIRO through both the Minerals Down Under initiative and the Wealth from Australian Ores research theme will be an important feature of the industry’s future.

Ralph Holmes, CSIRO Minerals Iron Ore Processing Program Manager, believes that targeted research will help create suitable cost-effective technologies to process lower-grade hematite/goethite ores found in alternative or 'new' orebodies.

'Technology needs to be developed to process these lower-grade ores and improve their quality,' says Dr Holmes. 'Australia faces losing market share to Brazil and becoming a low-quality iron-ore producer.'

'The known high-grade iron-ore resources remaining in Western Australia are about one billion tonnes at 64 per cent iron. In contrast, Brazil has 17 billion tonnes at 66.5 per cent iron in the Carajas region of the Amazon basin alone.'


*Processing challenges*

Economic and efficient processing of lower-grade ores will be crucial to the industry's future sustainability, but poses challenges in ore characterisation, maximising lump production, beneficiation and dewatering, and understanding the sintering characteristics of the processed ore and environmental constraints.

Efficient beneficiation processes that minimise iron loss, while removing alumina and silica will be required. If wet beneficiation is needed, economic dewatering and drying can be a major problem due to the high porosity of the lower-grade ores.

Although Australia’s new iron ore resources create challenges, their potential export value makes meeting these challenges worthwhile.


*Treating fine ore*

Maximising lump production is also important as alternative ores are highly hydrated and friable and produce less lump ore in comparison to traditional ore.

Inevitably the proportion of fines produced will steadily increase because of the friable nature of the new ores, so blast furnace burdens will contain increasing percentages of iron-ore agglomerates, such as sinter and pellets.

'Therefore, understanding the sintering characteristics of these new ores and their interaction with other ore types used in sinter blends around the world is important, as is finding ways of counteracting the adverse effect of increasing alumina content on sinter quality and productivity,' says Dr Holmes.


*High phosphorus ores*

Another serious problem is the phosphorus content of Australian iron ores.
'There are huge deposits of high-phosphorus Brockman ore in Western Australia that are close to existing infrastructure; however the high phosphorus levels make them more difficult to sell except in boom times,' says Dr Holmes.

Physical separation processes can remove some of the phosphorus, but substantial iron is lost in the process. Alternative approaches, such as heat treatment and leaching, are currently considered uneconomic, with the best option being to remove the phosphorus at the hot metal stage. This pushes the cost of removal onto the customer, although iron ore prices can be adjusted to take account of the additional process step.


*Magnetite resources*

Increasing worldwide demand for iron ore is also triggering the development of Australia’s magnetite resources and the production of iron-ore pellets. A better understanding of the mineralogy and processing characteristics of these ores and development of energy-efficient grinding methods could be critical to their profitability.


*Potential value*

Although Australia’s new iron ore resources create challenges, they also generate huge potential. Exploitation of the high phosphorus iron ore deposits in the Pilbara is a major prize.

Dr Holmes says, 'At current iron ore prices of about A$50 per tonne, the export value of these deposits alone is of the order A$350 billion. On a similar basis, unlocking Australia's largely untapped magnetite resources and production of iron ore pellets for export would potentially generate export revenue of about A$230 billion.'


----------



## danewbee (30 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



doctorj said:


> I also deleted a couple of your posts for the type of noise you talk about. Let he without sin etc etc.
> 
> Your logic does not follow.  Making less money than you would if it were a higher grade is entirely different to not making money.  You're yet to present any information about why "FWL will not good money".  You state it as fact without any analysis to support.  This is why your posts have upset the locals.  By all means challenge the status quo, but back it up with supporting evidence/calculations, not just gross, incorrect generalisations that might wash on Hotcopper but simply won't here.
> 
> I don't hold FWL and never have.




OK, you win because you can silence my voice. Go check the history of MGK in the past couple years, you will understand what I am coming from.


----------



## greggy (30 June 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

At the end of the day what matters is the bottomline profit when it comes to sharetrading.  The way I see it, just a few weeks ago Young Trader picked this stock whilst it was in the mid 20s.  Since then its more than tripled.  If he hadn't shared his wisdom with us many traders would have missed out on this opportunity.  I did not buy any at the time, but definitely should have.  I was preoccupied with other matters.
The iron ore sector is starting to run hot and IMO it may only get hotter.  Strong runs in other resource sectors have lasted for a while.  I don't think iron ore will be the exception.  The beauty of it is that the ordinary person in the street is still fixated with uranium stocks whilst a lot of the smarter money is being placed into iron ore stocks. IMO that means that there's plenty enough left on the table. Historically, often its the time to become more cautious when the average smo starts buying.   
DYOR


----------



## alanding (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Nice broadcast. But it seems no one like it. Good news is: no one hates it. . So it still holds.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Looks like alot of profit taking today,

Was bound to happen given the steep rise, 

The Audio broadcast stirred a bit of interest in the morning I think

Worth a listen


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Looks like alot of profit taking today,
> 
> Was bound to happen given the steep rise,
> 
> ...




Real low volume thought YT.

Due to the small amount of shares on offer, this stock is prone to big SP movements on small volume.

I wonder what the PFS, on the increased resource size, will do for the SP?


----------



## Ruprect (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yeah, bound to happen, but agreed, pretty low volumes. I think the fact that probably 8 or so million were purchased above 50c in the last 2 weeks should provide a short term support. Those holding, or those who can afford to hold will be waiting for the pre feas.

And given its volatility, thats when it has the potential to move up quickly again.

Im free carrying, so i'll give it a good while yet. Im very impressed with the management and their focus.


----------



## danewbee (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Looks like alot of profit taking today,
> 
> Was bound to happen given the steep rise,
> 
> ...




YT, we have good argument over CUL. It ended with kind of agree with your updated analysis  (more conservative buy more realistic), the share price has a good run in the last couple days. No damage is done, but help.

I urge you to recheck FWL's analysis because I am not convinced about the pig iron hype. BHP has tried it, and gove up. And Check another sad story about MGK, with big plan on producing Mn, only have found nobody is willing to lend money. its share price dropped from $2+ to 7c recently in less than 2 years. It is out of the league of small mining company to do the downstream.

Same question, everyone is try to avoid answering: Who FWL with very low grade ore want to produce pig iron, while none of the others with much higher grade prefer to ship it to Asia? So the management team's capability should be careful checked. 

Technical indicator is very weak too. There are twice as much sellers as buyers.


----------



## Ruprect (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

_"Good luck with FWL holding. I promise this is my last post if there is no more name calling."_

Geez Danewbee, we were all very nice since then, so i guess that was a "non core promise".

I'll say it again, FWL will be attempting to utilise new technologies to convert magnetite ore to a high grade, value added product. Check out the price per tonne of merchant pig iron, its nothing to scoff at by any means. Its a spec stock, and we all know, or should know that it comes with risks. But it also comes with a potential upside. In FWL's case, it could be substantial. If you have any doubt, check out any of YT's analysis.

The only thing i can take from your negative posts is that you want to buy in at a lower price, because you havent yet added any new information.


----------



## Pat (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Interesting day for FWL. I noticed a few 10k orders on the buy side in the 50's 65 cents has gone which looked like it was becoming support...stopped out now 

danewbee, what are your thoughts on the PFS due this month? if any?


----------



## danewbee (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Ruprect said:


> _"Good luck with FWL holding. I promise this is my last post if there is no more name calling."_
> 
> Geez Danewbee, we were all very nice since then, so i guess that was a "non core promise".
> 
> ...




Keeping say I didn't add much new, what you have added? Do me a favor, go head, answer my question to YT.

I don't want to discuss with you about a promise. (I did not break my promise     anyway, and I don't want to talk about it)

It is about the fact, try to answer my question. The blue sky stuff is everywhere, you don't need to repeat it here.

Do not fool by new technology terms, new methods. To be honest, I don't know anything about the technology, I doubt you know much either. If you and me can understand it, it is not a technology that can make FWL rich.

The simplest way of thinking is why FWL want to do it, while everybody else don't? To me the key is the management team, can they pull this off? or just hype the idea of pig iron to cover its shortcoming of low grade iron ore?

If the technology is not owned exclusively by FWL, so everybody else can produce pig iron, and make tons of money, far more than digging, and shipping. Why they don't do it? We could produce all kind of pig iron from coast to coast, why we don't? We we let the Asians to cut the biggest slice of the pie? Are the rest of iron ore companies stupid, include BHP, RIO, GBG, MGX, CFE, PMM.

This is not about get even, or spoil a party. It is about to provide a different view for discuss and think.  Don't like it ignore it. Cannot answer my question, don't wasting time to write something irrelevant, or try to silence me.

And final words, do you put your money where you mouth is?


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Keeping say I didn't add much new, what you have added? Do me a favor, go head, answer my question to YT.
> 
> I don't want to discuss with you about a promise. (I did not break my promise anyway, and I don't want to talk about it)
> 
> ...




Danewbee,

You seem to be trying to pick a personal battle with YT. I'll leave you to it.

However, regarding your the issue about new technologies, Ferrowest is not the first to be looking at ITmk3, and even if they were..so what? Everything starts somewhere.

*Have a read of this **article*, which explains the alliance between Kobe steel's (developer of ITmk3) and Cleveland Cliffs.

*Please note the following, and we'll see you back here afterwards for your comments:*

_ITmk3 (pronounced "Eye-Tee Mark Three") is an innovative technology that provides a flexible and environmentally friendly process for producing iron nuggets. Consisting of 96% to 97% iron and 2.5% to 3.0% carbon, the iron nuggets are equivalent in quality to blast furnace pig iron. _

_About the ITmk3 Process_

_* In the ITmk3 Process, iron ore fines and pulverized coal are formed into solid "green" or raw pellets. These pellets are fed into a rotary hearth furnace and heated to 1,300-1,450 degrees C. At this temperature range, the pellets are reduced and melted, enabling the iron to cleanly separate from the slag. 

* The ironmaking process takes only about 10 minutes. In comparison, blast furnace ironmaking takes 8 hours, while direct reduction can take 6 hours. 

* The resulting product is iron in nugget form. The iron nuggets can then be fed to melting furnaces for refining into steel. 

* Energy efficient and environmentally friendly, the ITmk3 Process emits 20% less carbon dioxide than blast furnace operations. 

* Capital investment is projected at roughly half the cost of conventional ironmaking technologies. On the same scale, initial capital investment of an ITmk3 plant is estimated to be about half the initial investment cost of a blast furnace with associated facilities, including coke ovens as well as oxygen generation and supply equipment._


----------



## kevinecom (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> YT, we have good argument over CUL. It ended with kind of agree with your updated analysis  (more conservative buy more realistic), the share price has a good run in the last couple days. No damage is done, but help.
> 
> I urge you to recheck FWL's analysis because I am not convinced about the pig iron hype. BHP has tried it, and gove up. And Check another sad story about MGK, with big plan on producing Mn, only have found nobody is willing to lend money. its share price dropped from $2+ to 7c recently in less than 2 years. It is out of the league of small mining company to do the downstream.
> 
> ...




I think u're out of control dude,  by comparing MGK (Magnesium) with FWL (iron).  Can you explain to me what's the differrent between  Magnesium Technology and  ITmk3 ® iron-making Technology.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is a world leader in the mining and processing of iron ore in  US, please read their announcement if you have doubt about  ITmk3 ® Technology. http://www.cleveland-cliffs.com/

Commenting on the new alliance, Cliffs Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Joseph A. Carrabba stated: "One of Cliffs' major strategic initiatives is to sustain its leadership position in pioneering processes related to metallics. By constructing a commercial-scale facility that will produce iron in nearly pure form, we will further that mission and be able to offer North America's non-integrated steel mills a consistently available and very high-quality domestic metallic feed, which is similar in quality to imported pig iron. Moreover, as Cliffs currently sells the majority of its pellets to integrated steel companies in North America, this opportunity has the potential to open a new market.

We have been very interested in this technology since successfully testing the process in a pilot plant located at our Northshore facility. The alliance with Kobe moves us closer to realizing our mutual goal of commercializing and exploiting this innovative process."

The Company also announced that the two parties have agreed to participate on a joint-venture basis as strategic equity partners in a 500,000 ton per annum iron nugget facility to be constructed at one of Cliffs' United States mining properties. The timing of this project and the site location will ultimately depend on permitting issues.


----------



## INORE (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Same question, everyone is try to avoid answering: Who FWL with very low grade ore want to produce pig iron, while none of the others with much higher grade prefer to ship it to Asia?




Perhaps you could pose your question that everyone is try to avoid answering to the FWL management and then post that reply on this forum.

WE ALL AWAIT YOUR REPLY.....DA:newbie:


----------



## Fool (2 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



INORE said:


> danewbee said:
> 
> 
> > Same question, everyone is try to avoid answering: Who FWL with very low grade ore want to produce pig iron, while none of the others with much higher grade prefer to ship it to Asia?
> ...



Yes I think the PFS will hold all the answers we seek, which should include the ore concentrate sample dispatched to Kobe Steel. This will prove the feasibility of the tech and the mine, in the mean time I will hold.


----------



## Pat (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Do not fool by new technology terms, new methods. To be honest, I don't know anything about the technology, I doubt you know much either. If you and me can understand it, it is not a technology that can make FWL rich.
> 
> The simplest way of thinking is why FWL want to do it, while everybody else don't? To me the key is the management team, can they pull this off? or just hype the idea of pig iron to cover its shortcoming of low grade iron ore?
> 
> ...



Danewbee,
I fail to see your point? Weather FWL come thorough with the goods has no real impact on me/my wallet. How many ASF'ers out there are actually long on this specie?  
Where you fortunate enougth to partake in a trade on FWL during it's recent run?


----------



## Fool (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pat said:


> Danewbee,
> I fail to see your point? Weather FWL come thorough with the goods has no real impact on me/my wallet. How many ASF'ers out there are actually long on this specie?
> Where you fortunate enougth to partake in a trade on FWL during it's recent run?




His point is to down-ramp every stock that YT has picked.

I suspect he is the same guy on hot copper whose coincidently just started doing the exact same thing, at the same time as this guy.

Already added him to ignore - suggest you do the same.


----------



## alanding (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

to be honest, FWL SP now is down and down. Can anyone tell me why? Becuase the low grade of Fe?  Though the volume is tiny


----------



## UPKA (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



alanding said:


> to be honest, FWL SP now is down and down. Can anyone tell me why? Becuase the low grade of Fe?  Though the volume is tiny




although at low volume, there is a huge gap between the buy n sell depth, dissapointing to see this one going down like this.


----------



## Awesomandy (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Given the low volume, there shouldn't be any worries. There are always a few of the more impatient holders who thought they might just take profits now that nothing much has been happening for a little while. The fundamentals remain the same, and I would think it's a good idea to keep holding it and wait for the next announcement. Any positive news should put the sp back into gear.


----------



## countryboy (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

For $50,000 you could push this stock back up to 69c. Volume is so small its not worth looking at charts.

Countryboy is in for the long term hold.


----------



## questionall_42 (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



alanding said:


> to be honest, FWL SP now is down and down. Can anyone tell me why? Becuase the low grade of Fe?  Though the volume is tiny






			
				upka said:
			
		

> although at low volume, there is a huge gap between the buy n sell depth, dissapointing to see this one going down like this.




Hold on guys.  FWL has run from 25c to now 60c in ONE MONTH (and yes, it did hit a high of 93c).  It is tightly held and you got your announcement last week.  What more do you want it to do?  Is it still undervalued? Well, maybe - so give it some time.  Short term profit takers could be in the market now; I'd be happy with 100%+ in a month.  

So a bit of perspective with stocks like FWL.  Time and patience is critical.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Profit taking in the new finanacial year?

No stock can go vertical for ever,

Remember it ran from 20c to 95c approx in 2 weeks, thats unheard of,

The fundamentals are still there and strong, so if anything as the share price gets cheaper it should look more attractive an opportunity,

I firmly still believe the PFS if it shows the expected EBIT = a share price of $1

That being said the PFS is probably 2-3 weeks off so we can probably expect more weakness until then,

IMO a good time to top up will come soon


----------



## Pat (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> His point is to down-ramp every stock that YT has picked.
> 
> I suspect he is the same guy on hot copper whose coincidently just started doing the exact same thing, at the same time as this guy.
> 
> Already added him to ignore - suggest you do the same.



LOL! It's very difficult to down ramp a stock that runs 400%. Perhaps the new guy to ASF has a point, we know most of these co's will most likely never produce, but that is not an issue...
danewbee you confuse me 
I understand your posts, but that is not where my confusion lies. I fail to understand your intent. It would seem most of the profits have already been made?
Can you please expalin?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Same question, everyone is try to avoid answering: Who FWL with very low grade ore want to produce pig iron, while none of the others with much higher grade prefer to ship it to Asia? So the management team's capability should be careful checked.




Mate the reason I get annoyed is when people ask questions without checking to see if they have already been answered, so this is the last time I will answer a question like this,
*
1. Re Management:*


YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Advantages
> *- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal*
> 
> Management - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/directors.html




So you see your question was already answered re credentials of Management, Brett Manning got MIS's Magnetite project up and running!
*

2. Re grade*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Also note the 25% Fe is not an issue for Pig Iron (very different to  YML type play which is looking to DSO the Heamatite Ore because that requires grades of 60% Fe+) also the Ore is apparantly ideal for benefication etc
> 
> Re financing, look at how many Chinese and Japanese steel firms are fudning projects AXO, MIS, MGX, TFE, AGO, CFE, ARH, GRR, IDO, then also realise the fact that Japans huge Kobe steel has already asked for sample ore from FWL, if the PFS stacks up it'll only be a matter of time
> 
> ...




So like I have said all along, if someone will back IDO's 600Mt@10%Fe Iron Sands project then FWL's 25% Fe doesn't seem that difficult now does it?

Also compare the mkt caps of IDO and FWL
*
3. Re Funding*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Ok to begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
> Note the names in bold
> 
> Rank Shareholder Name Holding %
> ...





Also



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Re financing, look at how many Chinese and Japanese steel firms are fudning projects AXO, MIS, MGX, TFE, AGO, CFE, ARH, GRR, IDO, then also realise the fact that Japans huge Kobe steel has already asked for sample ore from FWL, if the PFS stacks up it'll only be a matter of time
> 
> For a copmarable Magentite plays see
> - *IDO Mkt Cap $100m 70% of a large 600Mt@10%Fe Iron Sands *project CAP Ex $750m NPV $500m Pig Iron project, Iron Sands so techinacally more challenging, also in PNG




*If IDO can get backing then FWL with its proven managment, better grade, better infrastrucutre and better backed Murchison connections should get financing*


----------



## danewbee (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

1. Regarding management, OK, good at digging, is it really good at pig iron producing? Or could a good nurse become a good doctor? Or you are good at stock picking, are you good enough to run a pig iron business? Kind of convinced, but not fully convinced.

2. Grade. Is IDO a really a good example to help you? NO. IDO's deposit is in Indonesia, and it is iron sand, not iron ore. It is not apple to apple, twice. It is another good example of small low grade iron ore/sand miner want to be a pig iron giant. But IDO is on lucky side, because in Indonesia, cheap labor, cheap energy, loose environment law, and its is iron sand!

3. Still the same question, no one dare to answer directly: If the pig iron producing can make huge money, why we cannot build pig iron plants from coast to coast, and make a killings? Why BHP, RIO, FMG, GBG, CFE, MGX, PMM... don't do it here in Australia? 

YT, you can put together as much blue sky stuff as you want. But My conclusion is FWL's success of failure is exclusively on the capability of the management. If you believe pig iron producing is as easy as digging, or you are 100% believing in that the management can pull rabbits from a hat, go investing along with them, and buy more at current pull back.

Or have another thought, go ahead, have a look at MGK, and to see how an one time darling of the market, will promised finance backing, and windfall profit, want to produce metal Mn, and only have found nothing happened, and its share price dropped from $2+ to 3c just a couple of months ago.

To some posters, keep calling me a downramper, or anti-YT, sour grapes, jealous, or no knowledge, newbie,  or whatever you want. I guess it's moderator's call, not you, and a forum has to have two sides, otherwise, it is something else. If you have time, go answer my question, or ask yourself a question, do some research.  Anyway, you need to check the CUL thread, my final post is agree with YT's revised analysis.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi Dane,

A good post there, provides a balanced view,

These sorts of posts I am happy to resond to,

Re management, MIS didn't just dig up Ore, they built (along with Sino) a large magnetite project, which is what FWL are seeking to do, you can't say doctor to nurse more like doctor to doctor, FWL is being led by a proven

As for producing Pig Iron, Iron Sands is more difficult than pig iron and 10% is **** grade, if you read through the thread you'll see where I compared it to GRR who are looking to produce Iron Pellets from their 35% Fe deposit 
Now as far as I can remember FWL's management is far superior to IDO's and on par with GRR

GRR are building a plant to produce Iron Pellets, and AXO are building an operation to produce Ferro Vanadium 

I don't know why the others aren't, you'd have to ask their managment, but thats what makes FWL rare IMO, its a fuly intergrated player, it doesn't just dig the stuff up, it wants to produce the end product to supply to the steel mills,

If you speak to the MD he acknowledges that given the grade the project isn't that profitable as a DSO, but then again most are only profitable because of the recent price increaes in Magnetite Fe, however he feels Pig Iron mkt is alot firmer,

Its like criticising BP for producing Oil and refining it and supplying Petrol, or asking why don't Santos do it? Who knows

Fact is they have proven management, a few different options for technology and stand a good chance of getting a multi billion dollar project going,

All that a side, the mkt will pay up for the PFS, mark my words, they did for AXO and IDO and they will for FWL, wait and see!


----------



## UPKA (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

it has been 4 straight days of consolidations, almost 50% down from the peak of 90c. mainly small sellers desperate trying to get out with no buyers coming in, its a good time for bargain hunting, and top up somemore!


----------



## mobcat (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey Guys and Gals this article just popped up on mine box might help to give the SP the liitle nudge it needs in the northerly direction again  Worth a read all the stuff that us superior human beins on ASFS allready new but good to see it in print for the masses

First resource estimate for Yalgoo Iron Project




Ferrowest has announced an estimated mineral resource of 112.5 million tonnes at 25.3% total iron at its Yalgoo Iron Project in the mid west region of Western Australia.

The resource estimate has been completed for 10km of 27km strike at the Yogi deposit. According to the company, the resource underpins iron requirements for a more than 20 year project life. 

The company intends to continue drilling at Yogi in the fourth quarter as part of the upcoming Definitive Engineering Study. 

The new drilling and investigations will aim to raise the confidence of selected sections of the inferred mineral resource to allow determination of ore reserves in order to further advance the project, and identify further resources to add to the company’s resource inventory, which will allow flexibility in the development strategy for the Yalgoo Iron Project. 

Metallurgical testwork is still underway, as part of the Pre-feasibility Study that is due for completion before the end of July. When the results of the metallurgical testwork are combined with the geophysical and resource models, this will provide an excellent understanding of the Yogi deposit and be used to define infill drilling targets. 

Chief Geologist and Director of Ferrowest, Graeme Johnston, who has worked on many of the iron ore deposits in the mid west region including Tallering Peak, Weld Range, Jack Hills, Koolanooka and Blue Hills, is very pleased with the results: 

“We are starting to get a good understanding of the potential of the Yogi deposit and I am looking forward to our continuing exploration,” Mr Johnston said. 

“The correlation between our ground magnetics modelling of the orebody and the drilling results has been impressive so far, and the same modelling of the remainder of the 27km strike has given us some excellent targets for further exploration drilling later this year,” he added, 

Ferrowest Managing Director, Brett Manning, was also very pleased with the result.

“We have been in operation for only 11 months and started the Yalgoo Iron Project with no resources and no drilling of our own. Our target for this first Resource Estimate had been 75 million tonnes and so we are very pleased with the actual result. Securing sufficient resources to underpin the Yalgoo Iron Project’s requirements for a 20+ year operation is a key building block in the Project’s development,” he said. 

“In fact, with a further two thirds of the deposit yet to be drilled, the total resource potential is no longer an issue for us. We will continue to explore the deposit into the future but with an aim now of identifying the most economic sections of the deposit,” Mr Manning added. 

Ferrowest Ltd is developing the Yalgoo Iron Project aimed at producing merchant pig iron from the Yogi magnetite mineralisation near Yalgoo in the mid west region of Western Australia. Proposed initial production is 500,000 tonnes per annum. 

The plan to process the iron ore to pig iron on the mine site is premised on emerging mine site based technologies and excellent existing infrastructure servicing the site. The resulting value added merchant pig iron product will be a relatively high margin, high quality, low volume product for export to electric arc and basic oxygen furnace steel making plants worldwide.

- 03 Jul 2007


----------



## Pommiegranite (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



mobcat said:


> Hey Guys and Gals this article just popped up on mine box might help to give the SP the liitle nudge it needs in the northerly direction again  Worth a read all the stuff that us superior human beins on ASFS allready new but good to see it in print for the masses
> 
> First resource estimate for Yalgoo Iron Project
> 
> ...




Thanks Mobcat

I think this part is key:

_"Metallurgical testwork is still underway, as part of the Pre-feasibility Study that is due for completion before the end of July. When the results of the metallurgical testwork are combined with the geophysical and resource models, this will provide an excellent understanding of the Yogi deposit and be used to define infill drilling targets. "_


I think a lot of people really don't know what a PFS is (I didn't). Once the EPS is there in black and white, the market has to situp and take notice

YT...from your experience...do you think there is a possibility of the JORC resource being upgraded as part of the PFS?


----------



## danewbee (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hi Dane,
> 
> A good post there, provides a balanced view,
> 
> ...




This is the kind of YT's post I like to read, no 99% or 1% show off things. You never know where I am. I am glad I am on most people's ignore list, so I don't piss them off. They are just your follows, most of them contribute very little in the discussion.

Since you mentioned times and times again, it seems you have a very good feel about the management, it is the key. So good luck then.

I only invest what Aussie is good at in Australia. If I want to invest in pig iron companies, I will buy those companies shares in Korea, Japan, and even in China. Of course, FWL has a great story to tell. If success, the leverage is huge. Anything can happen. Good luck to the holders.


----------



## mcus (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Danewbee,

You have asked on a number of occasions the following,

"Still the same question, no one dare to answer directly: If the pig iron producing can make huge money, why we cannot build pig iron plants from coast to coast, and make a killings? Why BHP, RIO, FMG, GBG, CFE, MGX, PMM... don't do it here in Australia?"

 If you had bothered asking the company directly as I did rather than employing your monotenous, negative, alarmist, emotional, rhetoric you would have realised the following;

The conversion of magnetite ore into Merchant Pig Iron requires a pure ore that is low in contaminants.  Intrinsic to the recent JORC was the confirmation that FWL's ore is low in contaminants. 
The conversion of magnetite ore into Merchant Pig Iron requires sufficient energy to facilitate the process.  FWL has a natural gas pipeline running straight their tenement; which most mines, I'm sure you will agree, do not have to begin with and are required to build at a massive expense should they require it.  FWL has even considered the carbon debit under a proposed carbon trading scheme, claiming the ITMK3 produces 30% less greenhouse emissions. 
FWL is very lucky as it sits right on a major highway and is just down the road from Geraldton - a major port - another factor that helps make FWL's project economic. 
The technology for the conversion of magnetite ore into Merchant pig iron is a relatively new process and the technology involved has come a long way.  The ITMK3, through 'Cleveland Cliffs', has had a full scale demo facility (in the US) in action for 12 months.  Clevelend Cliffs is very positive re: the integrity of this technology and so is FWL. 
Many junior Iron Ore miners have JV's with Asian companies which involve processing in Asia.  Rather than just dumping ore on a boat, FWL wants to be unique and add value and therefore fetch a premium.  FWL has been planning their PI project since before the float - it's a very clear, deliberate and well thought out mandate from a very experienced board.
So if you have all of the above you can process Merchant Pig Iron and make a mint.


----------



## jtb (3 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

"FWL has a natural gas pipeline running straight their tenement; which most mines, I'm sure you will agree, do not have to begin with and are required to build at a massive expense should they require it."

Don't get too excited about that pipeline bro, we've already got three of the biggest alumina refineries in the world hanging off the end of it that (on a daily basis) are gas restricted as well as a couple of 130MW gas turbines that more often than not are running on diesel (you don't want to know what that costs) and theres more.

Infrastructure will be expensive.


----------



## 56gsa (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

a bit of history....

Brett Manning, Barry Wyatt, Nik Zuks, MidWest... what do they all have in common .... Kingstream Steel, Ken Court, Richard Court and the WA dream of steel making -- anyone remember this?  maybe not cause it never happened -Kingstream sold off Tallering Peak (Mt Gibson - now shipping hematite ) Koolanooka (MIS now shipping hematite ) Jack Hills (Murchison now shipping hematite )

dreams of steel faded to exporting dust (very profitable iron ore dust though)

WA dreams of downstream processing of iron ore have pretty much remained that - BHP had a good go with the HBI plant - now mothballed - Rio are still going with their HISmelt but only cause they have plenty of dollars to pour into it - there was a group in SA (Ausmelt?) that dreamed - Clive Palmer's mob Minerology (or something) dreamed ... MGX has a plant on the books - actually that was MGX's original plans, a magnetite pellet plant - MIS has a magnetite project on the books - Gindalbie is that magnetite too?

eventually these projects will become profitable - but really only once grades in the pilbara start to drop below 60%

would be interested to see where the profitable pig iron plants are in the world - i suspect they are in countries where there are high subsidies for steel-related industries (Russia, China etc?) Also how much is global trade?  And how much of that is related to direct JV arrangements (like I think GBG plans with with CHinese company & FWL for that matter)

I suspect these JV arrangements with the Chinese are to some extent a necessary hedge to try to break the Australian cartel on iron ore - a couple could come to fruition just to prove the fact there are options and hopefully lower the iron price - maybe FWL will be one?  I suspect GBG is ahead at this stage?  but processing is a different business to extraction and i suspect it will be quite a fews years till any of these dreams become reality


----------



## Fool (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Looks like the start of a new elliot wave, my prediction is fwl should bounce from the high 40s (middle boiler line) in preparation for the PFS and then peak after the announcement. Then consolidate to complete the wave. Any thoughts?


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



56gsa said:


> a bit of history....
> 
> Brett Manning, Barry Wyatt, Nik Zuks, MidWest... what do they all have in common .... Kingstream Steel, Ken Court, Richard Court and the WA dream of steel making -- anyone remember this? maybe not cause it never happened -Kingstream sold off Tallering Peak (Mt Gibson - now shipping hematite ) Koolanooka (MIS now shipping hematite ) Jack Hills (Murchison now shipping hematite )
> 
> ...




I notice you 'conveniently' fail to mention why Kingstream failed. I don't see how this relates to Ferrowest. You really need to visit http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html


*Kingstream Resources. * 


This project has failed and the following information is provided for historical interest.  

An entrepreneurial group once obtained the rights to iron ore deposits in the Tallering Peak area at a very low cost for reasons of its low opportunity value. These were was cheap because of the *high cost infrastructure requirement for being isolated without transport and port facilities. *

The operators believed production would be be in the "lowest quartile of world productioncosts" and therefore would be technically efficient but they faced high overhead cost penalties  and so were economically inefficient. 

Reflecting regional politics (National Party promoted that supports high cost regional development) the venturers obtained government assistance to offset those high infrastructure costs (to pay for the economic cost being the reason the deposits were available cheaply.  Note. The low cost nature of the deposits was made evident in April 2002 when, on failure of the venture, the deposits were acquired for just US$2.3 million by Mt Gibson Iron venturers a cost which _included_ access to market and technology data for downstream processing valued at $12million. The Government of the state is understood to have outlaid US$3million in addition to its internal activities. ​The endeavour was evolving at a time when BHP, as a large iron ore producer deferred the second stage of their DRI iron project, and struggling to justify continued operation. There were also other steel producers intent on investing.


----------



## 56gsa (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> I notice you 'conveniently' fail to mention why Kingstream failed. I don't see how this relates to Ferrowest. You really need to visit http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html




In your link PommieG you'll note Yalgoo is further from infrastructure than Kingstream was (Tallering Peak is just north of Mullewa, closer to gas pipe, and they were going to use Geraldton port infrastructure etc, then they/government decided to build new port - ie Oakajee) This all relates to FWL because 1) they are in the same region 2) iron ore processing in WA has been littered with dreams that didn't come to fruition and the reasons you gave for Kingstream haven't gone away.  

At the end of the day there's still a long way to go for FWL - share price will still rise an fall based on its progress, partners may come in, finance may be raised etc etc - so short-medium still opportunities to take advantage of this (as many did with Kingstream)

I will start a new thread to go through the iron ore processing dilema


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



56gsa said:


> In your link PommieG you'll note Yalgoo is further from infrastructure than Kingstream was (Tallering Peak is just north of Mullewa, closer to gas pipe, and they were going to use Geraldton port infrastructure etc, then they/government decided to build new port - ie Oakajee) This all relates to FWL because 1) they are in the same region 2) iron ore processing in WA has been littered with dreams that didn't come to fruition and the reasons you gave for Kingstream haven't gone away.
> 
> At the end of the day there's still a long way to go for FWL - share price will still rise an fall based on its progress, partners may come in, finance may be raised etc etc - so short-medium still opportunities to take advantage of this (as many did with Kingstream)
> 
> I will start a new thread to go through the iron ore processing dilema




56gsa,

I do appreciate this discussion, but really think you need to have a thorough read of Ferrowest's website and recent announcements.

*Infrastructure*

In the link i provided, you will see that Yalgoo has a Railway & gas pipeline running through it. Tallering Peak had neither. 

Tallering Peak 2/10 
Yalgoo 10/10

*Capex*

Tallering Peak proposed a *$2.7 billion* plant at Oakajee
Ferrowest will build Beneficiation & Iron Nugget Plants onsite with estimated costs of* $330 million (including a 20% contingency)*

Tallering Peak 1/10 
Yalgoo 10/10

*Cashflow*

Tallering Peak was dependent on $400 million goverment subsidies. Very political and nowhere near enough

Yalgoo's project model suggests the possibility of shipping magnetite concentrate initially to generate cashflow until the pig iron production is off the ground.

Tallering Peak 0/10 
Yalgoo 8/10

*Production*

Tallering Peak was looking at producing steel sheets. What the hell is that?

Yalgoo project is based on producing pig iron pellets using recent technologies rendering production extremely efficient/high grade

Tallering Peak ?/10 
Yalgoo 10/10

*Market*

Tallering Peak was a project dating back 10 years. 
Yalgoo project is current.

I'm assuming that I really don't need to go into the change of the demand/supply equation of steel. Suffice to say Pig Iron is hot.


Tallering Peak 3/10 
Yalgoo 10/10

*All in all, the only thing that Kingstream had in common with Ferrowest that they both had/have iron resources in WA.*

ps. Nik Zuks although MD of Kingsteel, is only a shareholder of Ferrowest.


----------



## UPKA (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> ps. Nik Zuks although MD of Kingsteel, is only a shareholder of Ferrowest.





Plus the fact that the guy made a mistake once with Tallering Peak, u would think he'll be more carefull this time around. I still remain confident on this one, bt somehow the SP has to hold up


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> YT...from your experience...do you think there is a possibility of the JORC resource being upgraded as part of the PFS?




I don't think so, PFS is more back of the envelope "do we proceed" type stuff,

Buy guys some excellent information both for and against FWL here,

Thanks for taking the time to do the research


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



jtb said:


> "FWL has a natural gas pipeline running straight their tenement; which most mines, I'm sure you will agree, do not have to begin with and are required to build at a massive expense should they require it."
> 
> Don't get too excited about that pipeline bro, we've already got three of the biggest alumina refineries in the world hanging off the end of it that (on a daily basis) are gas restricted as well as a couple of 130MW gas turbines that more often than not are running on diesel (you don't want to know what that costs) and theres more.
> 
> Infrastructure will be expensive.




Its amazing how many people want to shoot holes in projects without doing any *research.*

The gas pipeline capacity point was an interesting one. Really, I should have looked into this before investing.

However, I posed the question to Barry Wyatt (Yalgoo Project Director) and just got the following response.



> Thank you for your comments on the Project and our web site.
> We also think that this is a very exciting project.
> 
> In regard to the pipe line(s); I am advised by APT, the owner of the
> ...



I get the impression the Yalgoo project has all of the bases covered, (barring a Iron import ban by China).

So saying this, I really wonder whether the PFS really will be a yes or no report, or more of a foregone conclusion.

IMO it will be just a case of firming up what we know already


----------



## Fool (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

More importantly....

Looking at the chart, we could have seen the bottom yesterday and the start of a new upwards trend.

Anyone with more charting experience want to confirm this ?


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Just thought I'd put this onto our Ferrowest thread, seeing the 'Infrastructure' word keeps on cropping up. Most of it is pretty general midwest stuff, so I've highlighted key points in red. 

*Infrastructure and Services*



[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]The Mid West has well developed core infrastructure including transport, industrial land, communications, water and energy supplies, education and vocational training facilities and health services. [/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1]*ROADS *[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The Mid West is well serviced with a network of major sealed roads connecting Geraldton to Perth, the North West and the hinterland. Major arterial roads include: the Brand Highway linking Perth to Geraldton; the North West Coastal Highway from Geraldton to the North West via Northampton, Carnarvon, Karratha and Port Hedland; the Midlands Road between Moora and Dongara; and the eastern connection from Geraldton to Leinster via Mullewa, Yalgoo, Mt Magnet, Sandstone and Agnew. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*Work on the $88 million Southern Transport Corridor (Stage 1) was completed in late 2005 to provide a new direct transport link to the port of Geraldton for both road and rail from the Narngulu industrial estate.* *Stage 2 (scheduled for 2007/08) will further improve the road corridor to Narngulu and the Geraldton-Mount Magnet Road.* [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*RAIL *[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The Australia Railroad Group operates the rail network in the Mid West and throughout the southern half of the state. The haulage task in the Mid West Region is exclusively made up of bulk products, such as coal, grain, mineral sands and iron ore. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The main depot at Narngulu, 13 kilometres from the port of Geraldton, is the junction of the two railway lines that come from the south. Another line branches off at Dongara to service the minerals sands deposits at Eneabba. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*PORT *[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The Port of Geraldton is one of the most diverse regional ports in Western Australia with six land-backed berths. The $103 million Port Enhancement Project completed in 2003 has resulted in a deepening of the harbour to 11.5 metres at zero tide and up to 12.8 metres on a maximum tide of 1.3 metres. Other improvements include a new mobile shiploader to avoid cargo contamination and two new tugs. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*In response to the increasing iron ore trade within the Region a $35 million upgrade to Berth 5 is in progress. This upgrade will establish Berth 5 as a dedicated iron ore berth capable of handling up to 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). This project is expected to be completed by late 2007.* [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Imports include petroleum products, phosphate, fertiliser and urea. Exports include wheat and other grains, mineral sands, talc, stockfeed, livestock, copper and zinc concentrates and iron ore. [/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1]*AIR TRANSPORT* [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The Geraldton Airport is a Civil Aviation Authority licensed aerodrome, owned and operated by the Shire of Greenough. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Services provided by the airport include apron parking for four large commercial aircraft, a helicopter pad, space provisions for two private charter operators, and maintenance/servicing for light aircraft. In 1999 the main runway was upgraded to accommodate aircraft up to B737-800. A new $3.6 million passenger terminal was constructed in 2001. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Regional air services are provided by Skywest and Skippers. There are a number of private charter operators based in the Mid West Region. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*INDUSTRIAL** LAND *[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]There is an ample supply of serviced light industrial land in various lot sizes in the Geraldton/Greenough area [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]The Narngulu Estate has a total area of 741 hectares. Of this, 541 hectares caters for general industry, with the remaining 200 hectares set aside for the development of noxious and hazardous industries. Currently, much of the estate has been sold to a diverse range of industries. At present about 70 hectares of land is free for use. [/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1]Oakajee, located 20 kilometers north of Geraldton, has been acquired by the State Government and zoned for industry and a port. Preliminary planning and environmental appraisal for the estate and port were completed ahead of zoning. The estate is not presently serviced and awaits a major project to underwrite the servicing costs [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Opportunities exist for industrial development in other towns in the Mid West Region outside the City of Geraldton. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*ENERGY*[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Electricity to the Mid West Region is provided by dual 132kV lines via the interconnected grid from Bunbury, Muja and Kwinana power stations. Geraldton, Chapman Valley, Golden Grove, Three Springs and Eneabba each have 132kV zone substations. Power is then distributed by 33kV line to Dongara, Kalbarri, Northampton, Mullewa, Narngulu, and Nabawa and throughout the Geraldton-Greenough area. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*Six new power stations were constructed in the Region in 2003/04* at Meekatharra, Cue, *Yalgoo*, Wiluna, Mount Magnet and Sandstone. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Construction of the $210M Alinta wind farm at Walkaway 25k south east of Geraldton was completed in mid 2005. Consisting of 54 turbines producing 90 MW of power (enough for 60,000 homes) this is currently the largest wind farm in the state. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]*The Mid West Region is serviced by four natural gas pipelines: the Parmelia Pipeline (Dongara-Pinjarra); the Dampier-Bunbury Natural Gas Pipeline (DBNGP); the Goldfields Gas Pipeline (North West Shelf-Kalgoorlie); and the Mid West Pipeline (DBNGP to Windimurra). A spur line from the DBNGP services Geraldton and industry in the Narngulu industrial estate.* [/SIZE]



[/SIZE]


----------



## 56gsa (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> *Infrastructure*
> 
> In the link i provided, you will see that Yalgoo has a Railway & gas pipeline running through it. Tallering Peak had neither.
> 
> ...




pommieG

some good points - and agree with your scoring in principal - altho perfect tens for FWL might be a bit overstating the case!  by the way no trains to yalgoo - they pulled up the mullewa-cue line in the 1970s although theres still a very visible rail easement that FWL can use for its construction

i'd forgotten about the midwest pipeline to the PMA vanadium plant which i think is being rebuilt - a few years ago there were concerns that the DBNGP (which the midwest pipe runs off) was nearing capacity and they did work on approval for a 2nd pipeline easment but don't think they have tendered the new pipeline yet?

shipping magnetite?? @ 25% ??  is anyone shipping magnetite from australia - maybe savage river in Tasmania - but thought WA was all hematite / BIF

big next step is the metallurgy tests - a lot of magic in a lab doesn't translate to economic profitability.  More impurities means mean processing, means greater costs.  FWL's ore is higher in Sio2 (49%) and Al2O3 (5.5%) than GBGs (43% / 0.9%)  - can they get this up to 65% Fe with low impurities?  GBG came in at 69% Fe / 4.4% Sio2 + Al2O3

this is a marketable speks:

Chemical Composition (On Dry Basis) 
Fe 65.00 % MIN 
Feo 0.50 % MAX 
Sio2 + Al2O3 5 % MAX 
(Al2O3 0.6 % MAX) 
S 0.02 % MAX 
P 0.03 % MAX 
TiO2 0.15 % MAX 
AS 0.01 % MAX 
Other metals 0.20 % MAX 

the attractiveness of FWL is its mkt cap which is 1/30th that of GBGs (which has 10x the resource) so plenty of room to run - but remember Barry was saying for 10 years that Kingstream would be shipping steel slab - not the most independent person ....


----------



## Pommiegranite (4 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

56gsa,

Thanks for you correcting me on the rail issue. However I'm sure the new highway upgrade will suffice.

The following email from the MD (Brett Manning) may answer some of your doubts.

I've just received a reply to an email which I sent only an hour ago! I was certainly very impressed by his speedy and detailed reply, which is always great to see from management:

I asked why Ferrowest have ruled against building the pellet plant on the Yangtze, China (a la Mt Gibson Iron) at 1/3 of the cost ($100 million) of which Ferrowest is prepared to spend. Keypoint in red 

Dear XXXX,

It is true that you can build plant in China for about one third of
that in Australia but our objective is to add value at the mine site and
only ship 96%Fe merchant pig iron. This product has a high margin and will
see profits stay with the shareholders of Ferrowest.

If we moved the plant offshore then we would need to ship magnetite
concentrate (as Asia Iron intends to do). Magnetite concentrate is a
very low margin product that is very difficult to handle. 

In fact the only way to move it any distance over land is by slurry pipeline as Asia Iron plan to do. 

This is quite expensive infrastructure and between that and the low margin it is necessary to produce at least 6-7 million tonnes per year to make it economic. The large beneficiation plant, slurry pipeline and dewatering infrastructure at the port are all equally as expensive as our small value added operation.

So our goal is to focus on the value added merchant pig iron production
on a small scale and keep the capital cost down but the margin high.

This will ensure we can survive the bad times as well as the good times
we are experiencing now. Our Capex was estimated at $388.5m in the
Scoping Study in December 2006 and the EBITDA is around A$155 per tonne at a sale price of US$302/t. Merchant pig iron is currently selling
for around US$395.00 per tonne and so in the current market the margin
would be much higher.

With a magnetite ore body you can either go large scale low margin or
small scale high margin. Most projects in WA are going for the former
because it is quicker to market but we are going for the later because
we think there is a much better long term market for merchant pig iron.

As happens a lot these days I have no doubt that some parts of the
plant will be manufactured in China in any event, particularly given the
skill shortage in WA at the moment, and so we will gain some benefit from
that in any event.

This should not be construed as suggesting that Asia Iron or Grange etc
will not succeed. There are certainly some very promising looking
projects out there but our approach is a little different and we are
happy with our decision.

I hope this helps.

Yours sincerely,


Brett Manning
Managing Director

Ferrowest Limited
Unit 18, 28 Belmont Avenue, Belmont WA 6104
Ph: 9277 2600 Fx: 9277 2655 www.ferrowest.com.au


----------



## alanding (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

restricted securities will be released from escrow on the date specified below:
• 8,700,000 shares on 24 July 2007

I only am being trading security for about two month. I do not quite understand of this.
   Does this mean:  FWL will release this number of shares to the market? If yes, can we know its price?


----------



## Fool (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I'd imagine they are released at market value.

But more importantly.... does this mean that they anticipate the PFS will be out before the 24th of July, in order to "get the best price for these shares" ??


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The shares are just coming out of escrow, they're not new shares, these shares were the consideration/payment for the purchase of the project

PFS is due out before the end of the month, I doubt Comet will be looking to sell their shares though just yet, but you never know


----------



## alanding (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> The shares are just coming out of escrow, they're not new shares, these shares were the consideration/payment for the purchase of the project
> 
> PFS is due out before the end of the month, I doubt Comet will be looking to sell their shares though just yet, but you never know




Thanks YT and fool.  
I now understand it.


----------



## UPKA (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

good sign boys! someone is accumulating at whatever share they can get their hands on!! orders r put thru at market price, about $70k worth, pushing up the SP! looks like someone is desperate to get in, possible insider?

PS its small volume, so doesnt really mean much, bt could be the company secretary buying . i think i've been looking at this stock for too long


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well whats interesting is AXO has a project nearby also called Yalgoo, probably 2kms to the east, they were drilling this project  with results expected anytime, today they have gone into a trading halt, also FWL is up and the buy depth is building

Coincidence? Who knows

One things for sure 55c acted as support


----------



## juw177 (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> good sign boys! someone is accumulating at whatever share they can get their hands on!!




I dont see any heavy accumulation. Rather there is a shortage of sellers which will either see the SP jump on low volume or a SP cut when the sellers do come in.


----------



## Pommiegranite (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



juw177 said:


> I dont see any heavy accumulation. Rather there is a shortage of sellers which will either see the SP jump on low volume or a SP cut when the sellers do come in.




The volume is pitiful. Nothing can be read into it. I'm sure there are ASFers who hold more the the current volume traded of $248K

The 115,000 bid at 66.5 confuses me. Earlier today, when the SP was around 64c was bidding at around 57c.

It just goes to show that if you really like a stock, it sometimes pays to pay up or the stock can get away from you.


----------



## UPKA (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well whats interesting is AXO has a project nearby also called Yalgoo, probably 2kms to the east, they were drilling this project  with results expected anytime, today they have gone into a trading halt, also FWL is up and the buy depth is building
> 
> Coincidence? Who knows
> 
> One thins for sure 55c acted as support





YT, AXO's pending annoucement is related to its Balla Balla project, not it's Yalgoo project, so i think its unrelated.


----------



## charly100 (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

anybody have any idea on what the industry average PE ratio is - i'm trying to crunch some numbers on this stock, i know its a bit premature but i'm just getting a bit of an idea.


----------



## alanding (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charly100 said:


> anybody have any idea on what the industry average PE ratio is - i'm trying to crunch some numbers on this stock, i know its a bit premature but i'm just getting a bit of an idea.




It belongs to resource. This sector avg. PE is 15.75          :

FWL is still in exploration. Its PE is zero


----------



## charly100 (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi guys,

I’ve heard a lot of people talking about the SP is going to be diluted like hell once more shares are issued to raise money for the CAPEX.  I’ve been trying to crunch a few rough numbers to guesstimate what the effect of the further capital raising will be on the SP. I’ve decided to calculate it as if all money were raised through issuing equity. I know this isn’t the only option to raise capital but the managers are going to choose the option that’s best for the current shareholders – and if I calculate how bad this strategy is then logically it couldn’t be any worse than that. 

This gets a bit complicated and is based on a few assumptions: 

(These numbers are very rough especially since PFS isn’t out yet. Because the numbers are so rough I’ve tried to use VERY conservative numbers in a “worst case” basis just to get idea of the worst scenario I could expect from the SP.)

If you think any of these numbers are either downright wrong or even just unreasonable then share me your ideas 

CAPEX – 350M (taken from 330M on website and jacked up for some breathing space)
Annual Pig iron production - 500,000tpa (from website – it’s planed to eventually be scaled up to 2M tpa but ill keep it at 500000tpa to be conservative, plus that’ll probably involve additional capital expenditure which makes things more complicated)

Operating Surplus Per Tonne - $165.88 from company website (this could be eroded by the exchange rate being high but then again iron ore prices are currently higher than original estimate – besides it’s too hard to tell in the long term. I think this can be used as a rough guide since these managers don’t seem to be in the game of talking themselves up too much (remember how the JORC busted their initial target by 50%). Though PFS will give a much better idea of this figure! 

This gives us an EBIT of approx  - $82.5m

# of shares on issue before new equity issue - 54,000,000 + APPROX 30,000 000 options
if all options are exercised this will mean about 84M shares on issue.

Now to figure out the theoretical new value after capital raising I did the following – (note these techniques are just my own guesses, I’m not an expert at valuation so I’ve just used methods that seem to make sense to me) 
I figured it was too difficult to try NPV analysis so I thought a rough guide could be found be using PE ratio’s based upon diluted EPS multiplied by the PE ratio. NOTE that I’ve used EBIT (which should be taxed) not net income originally because I forgot about tax! To get net income of 82.5 at 30% tax I think you would need an output of approx 720 thousand tpa which is in my view still a fairly reasonable and conservative figure seeing as how they may be planning to scale up to 2M tpa. (sorry I didn’t want to do all the analysis again once I realized this).

82.5 is the EBIT,  S1 is the new diluted theoretical SP, S0 is the price of the shares offered under the capital raising. Note that the mkt. share price is irrelevant since we cant know what the company’s real value is, we can only have a good guess.
These two conditions must hold: 
S0< mkt SP (in order to make the offer attractive to investors)
S0 < S1 (for the same reasons)

I wasn’t sure what PE ratio’s for the to use since I cant find any good comparisons, I’ve read some places (although I don’t know whether it’s a reliable source) that small companies in the industry have PE ratios of 7-15 and I’ve seen some producers in the industry with PE ratios of 15. 

Anyway once I plot those graphs of S1 against S0 I come up with these plots (see below) using different PE ratios. I’ve got S0 on the x axis and S1 on the y axis. The black line is drawn because in theory nobody would buy new shares below this line because the diluted price would be lower than what they bought it at. Now its plausible that S0 could be anywhere along the x-axis but logically it makes sense that shareholders before capital raising would also have a good idea of S1, hence they would push the SP up since it makes them better off – the logic is the higher the market SP the higher price new equity can be issued at meaning less equity needs to be issued to raise the 350M. I.e. The pie is divided into fewer and bigger pieces. Thus the S0 should be towards the right side of the arc. 

One thing I’ve noticed though that even though these numbers are what I thought to be conservative there is enormous upside even in some of the worst cases. The higher the PE ratio I use has an exponential effect on what the diluted SP is – this seems to mean that if this project gets off the ground and all the risk and uncertainty about the project going ahead is overcome, the upside is HUGE! But also i've notced that if my number go any lower than my most conservative estimate the analysis is so sensitive that it looks like no capital would be able to be raised at all (since S1 becomes less than S0 for all prices - violating the original condition) this happened when used the EBIT of 82.5 and taxed it at 30% and used a PE ratio of 7. However those numbers are in my view ultra conservative and not too much to be concerned about. 

In the good scenarios it looks like some sort of fantasy but i don't know what else to make of it? 

I’m not sure if my numbers are wrong or if it really is that good (as long as the project gets of the ground that is).

Any ideas?

Please feel free to tear this analysis to shreds in a constructive way – we’ll all learn more if you do.


----------



## Rafa (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



alanding said:


> It belongs to resource. This sector avg. PE is 15.75          :
> 
> FWL is still in exploration. Its PE is zero





That should read... PE is infinitiy... 

You need earnings first before you can have a PE Ratio!


----------



## charly100 (6 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Rafa, 
the idea is that once it starts production the SP should reflect similar PE ratios of other companies that are already producing, thus if we can forecast earnings then compare this to the PE ratios of similar companies that are already in production we can get an idea of what the SP might be once they too get into the production phase - albeit a very rough idea. Similar to the way in which analysts compare the PE ratio of a stock to those of the industry to gauge whether the company is undervalued or overvalued.


----------



## INORE (9 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

9th July 2007
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
RAIL TRANSPORT OPTION
Following the recent announcement by WestNet Rail that it was proceeding to investigate expansion of its track network in the mid west region of WA, Ferrowest has met with WestNet representatives to determine if there will be an opportunity for the Yalgoo Iron Project to utilise the expanded network.
The planning for the Yalgoo Iron Project currently envisages road transport for the proposed project output of 500,000tpa of merchant pig iron. This relatively small tonnage does not, on its own, warrant re-instating the rail line from Mullewa to the project, a distance of approximately 133km. No other proposals for additional rail in the mid west come within an economic distance of the project.
However, under the WestNet Rail proposal it is planned to consider re-instating the rail line that runs through the project tenements in order to service the Golden West Resources Project at Wiluna. The Company and WestNet Rail will investigate the feasibility of using this line to transport the merchant pig iron to the Port of Geraldton. Under this scenario, a 7km spur line would be constructed off the main line into the proposed plant site.
Ferrowest would need to contribute to the overall capital cost of new rail (probably through operating charges) and would therefore not expect any significant reduction in overall transport costs on the 500,000tpa of MPI currently planned but, if successful, it would have the following benefits for the Company:
• while the proposed road transport is minimal, it will lessen the number of truck movements;
• coal transportation to site will not require double handling (currently both road and rail transport); and
• any future expansion in output will result in transport savings.
The possibility of a new line through Mt Magnet and Sandstone to Wiluna being economic is largely governed by other projects that are proposing to move larger quantities of material but the Company is pleased to participate in determining an overall solution provided that the proposed rail can offer equal or lower total transport costs.
If the proposed rail line does not proceed, the Company will simply continue with its proposed road transport.
The Company looks forward to further discussions with WestNet Rail as it advances the studies for the Yalgoo Iron Project.


----------



## Pommiegranite (10 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Article on Herald Sun Online at news.com.au

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22044678-664,00.html

It's all stuff we know already, but once again, good media coverage for Ferrowest


*THE good times keep rolling on for junior iron companies with some very positive announcements yesterday.*
Gindalbie Metals shareholders will be smiling all of the way to the bank after the company upgraded its Mungada hematite project by 62 per cent to 22.8 million tonnes. 

That led to a pretty solid 14.6 per cent upgrade to the share price of the WA miner to a close of $1.375. 

Chief executive Garret Dixon said the iron grade had improved significantly while contaminants had fallen. 

About 67 per cent of the resource was now classified as indicated, taking the first 10 hematite deposits drilled much closer to becoming a direct ship mine. 

*It was a similar story for fellow Perth junior Ferrowest, which is having an interesting chat with WestNet Rail. *

*While Ferrowest had planned to send the merchant pig iron from its Yalgoo iron project by road, as luck happens it may be able to get a lift by rail. *

*WestNet is looking to build a line to Golden West Resources' project at Wiluna which will pass right through Ferrowest's tenement. *

*If the figures work out, Ferrowest may be able to build a 7km spur line to take the pig iron to Geraldton and avoid double handling of its coal inputs. *

*While transport costs remain around the same, the rail line would improve the economics of any future expansion.*


----------



## serendip (10 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The announcement that FWL may now have a rail transport option is encouraging from more than one perspective.

First, and most obvious, is that any such option automatically sets a ceiling on their transport costs.

Secondly, a rail link would clearly provide an economic transport system for any future expansion.

Third, more subtly, but perhaps most important is the implicit confirmation that transport costs to the port at Geraldton are going to be very low, by the standards of the industry.  This is indicated by the fact that building even a short spur line, of only seven km, is expected to result in net costs which approximate those of the currently planned road transport.  I doubt if there is an iron ore miner in WA that would not be head-over-heels with delight at the prospect of having to merely fund the construction of such a short section of track.  FWL now has this as an upper limit.

It all helps to inject more confidence in the robust nature of the economics of the Yalgoo project.

Cheers,  Serendip


----------



## Fool (10 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Lounge chair here is all my research
> 
> Although I originally said 60c is a target, at 60c the mkt = $51m which could turn out to be a possible 1 yr of 30 year net profit, so a PFS that showed profit of $50m p.a. for 30yrs may = a Mkt Cap of $100m, my broker thinks this is more reasonable if the PFS shows this,
> 
> DYOR




Just thinking out aloud here.

Seeing as the resource was upgraded, are we now looking at $75m p.a for 30 years?

If we are.... does that also suggest a mkt cap of $150m ? .... approx $1.80 if the PFS comes out good?

or will we have to wait for the total strike to be drilled and another JORC upgrade to see the SP will go that high?


----------



## stefoid (10 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The most important thing about this stock is the MPI process.  If ferrowest was to get the company who designed the process in as partners?  Japanese?  That would be a very big deal for the stock.

If they dont get the process right, they have just so much rusty dirt.


----------



## Pommiegranite (10 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



stefoid said:


> The most important thing about this stock is the MPI process. If ferrowest was to get the company who designed the process in as partners? Japanese? That would be a very big deal for the stock.
> 
> If they dont get the process right, they have just so much rusty dirt.




I don't think the process will be a problem at all. Kobe Steel are crying out for ITmk3 to be recognised globally.

The real 'issue' is the grades of the concentrate. However, if you compare Cleveland Cliff's grades (ITmk3 approved) with Ferrowest's samples, you will see great similarities. Therefore, no issue at all...I hope

http://www.cleveland-cliffs.com/Operations/Products/Pages/IronOreAnalysesTable.aspx


*(FWL sample pdf attached)*


----------



## serendip (11 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thanks, PommieG.  That comparison makes the Yalgoo concentrate look a more favourable feedstock than any of those shown as potential sources by Cleveland.  If Cleveland Cliffs are still sufficiently convinced of the viability of the ITmk3 technology to build a 500k t/y facility, with their US and Canadian feedstocks, then the position looks very encouraging for FWL. 

If the results from the test runs at Kobe Steel are available on schedule, and presumably incorporated in the Pre-Feasibility Study, we could be in for some interesting times around the end of this month.

Cheers,  Serendip


----------



## toc_bat (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

ok so i was wrong as usual - the sp has dipped a bit since jorc ann, i forecasted a hold or steady rise, 

notice how there has been a slight sell off after 2 recent ann, lets see if i get this oe right, i think this is a few sellers who were perhaps dissapointed that the ann wasnt the pfs so they sold out, 

i tried to ring the company 2 days ago t ask about the expected date of the pfs, secrtary sai MD isnt in, ill try again today,

bye all


----------



## Pommiegranite (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> ok so i was wrong as usual - the sp has dipped a bit since jorc ann, i forecasted a hold or steady rise,
> 
> notice how there has been a slight sell off after 2 recent ann, lets see if i get this oe right, i think this is a few sellers who were perhaps dissapointed that the ann wasnt the pfs so they sold out,
> 
> ...




Mate...the volumes begin traded on this stock are *ridiculously* low. Sometimes $20k a day. Just a few people getting a little bored and wanting to move their piddly amounts elsewhere

I wouldn't read anything into this. I think this stock is now at a crossroads, with those believing in a positive PFS already onboard, and those who don't are already out


----------



## Pommiegranite (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

In The Australian Online yesterday. Not too many with infrastructure as ideal as Ferrowest's

*Rule of iron: get access to structure*

*IN the iron ore industry, capitalising on the boom is not just about increasing production, but having access to infrastructure - first.*

Fortescue Metals has tied itself in legal knots trying to get third-party access to BHP Billiton's port and rail infrastructure in the Pilbara, and in the mid-west of WA two iron ore miners have decided to part ways and find new partners in the quest to get first dibs on badly needed infrastructure. 

Infrastructure isn't cheap and the economics can be tough. In the case of the Pilbara, legal stoushes over access are well documented, but what is little known is that a similar story could unfold at Western Australia's original iron ore destination, the mid-west, which has finite infrastructure capacity from project to port, at Geraldton - the only major water gateway for the region. 

But Midwest Corporation has been forced to sign an exclusive agreement to get access to infrastructure following a decision by Murchison Metals not to proceed with jointly developing infrastructure in the Geraldton region. 

"I was flabbergasted when Murchison told us they were going it alone with Mitsubishi to build the infrastructure," Midwest chief executive Bryan Oliver says. 

Instead, Midwest is backing the $2 billion Yilgarn Infrastructure project, which he says will list on the ASX in October. 

The project proposes to build a 470km railway and a new port at Oakajee, which is 20km from the old port at Geraldton. If everything goes to plan, and there are many things that could go wrong, Oliver expects the company to become the fourth-biggest iron ore producer in Australia. 

Murchison executive chairman Paul Kopejtka sees it differently. 

He says the company decided to pull the plug on Midwest and join up with Mitsubishi because it was in the best interests of shareholders. "Over the past 12 months we were working with Midwest and it came to a halt when we went into exclusive discussions with Mitsubishi," he says. "The fact is we are the only company to do the engineering on rail and port infrastructure and he who owns intellectual property on engineering is the most important thing." 

Oliver says the main thing is to have a State Agreement in place to build the rail and port. Nothing can be done without one. 

Midwest aims to be the fourth-biggest iron ore producer in Australia, with expectations it will produce 30 million tonnes a year of iron ore by 2011. 
Murchison has signed with Mitsubishi to develop its own joint infrastructure business, which could cost up to $3billion. 

The deal involves Mitsubishi acquiring 50per cent of Murchison's Jack Hill iron ore assets, in return for an upfront $150 million cash, then a more significant payment in a year, a deferred payment, which is half the net present value of the project. 

But as one Sydney analyst says: "We suspect the strategic positioning is only just the beginning. Like many divorces this one may be about to get quite messy." 

Both say they have the advantage. Murchison's Kopejtka says the Mitsubishi deal gives it access to finance and the company is more advanced in engineering: "We have been working on it since late 2004, before these guys were even kicking around." 

But Midwest's Oliver says his company has the State Government Agreement, without which there is no infrastructure project. This points to protracted negotiations between Murchison/Mitsubishi and the state Government, which could delay Murchison gaining a State Agreement. 

But Kopejtka disagrees. He reckons Midwest's State Agreement is out of date and even if they had hooked up with Midwest they would have started negotiations with the state Government from scratch. 

As one analyst says, the West Australian Government has been put in the difficult position of choosing between Japanese (Mitsubishi) and Chinese interests. It may find the thing to do is to procrastinate. 
He says the best solution is for a merger between the two companies. 

Murchison has a market capitalisation of $1.8 billion, while Midwest is valued at $635 million. 
Meanwhile, Midwest will raise $29 million in a fully underwritten 1-for-7 non-renounceable rights issue next month at $1.46 a share. With the share price at $3.55, existing shareholders will grab it. 

The key to a successful company is getting access to infrastructure first. Both parties will have to deal with each other because they cannot build two ports and two rails. Besides being economically unsound, the state Government would not allow it. 

But shareholders are buying into anything that remotely mentions the metal. The handful of listed iron ore stocks was boosted this week when incoming BHP Billiton boss Marius Kloppers predicted demand would exceed supply for some time yet. 

At the same time, UBS put out a report forecasting that iron ore prices will rise another 25 per cent next year, buoying the earnings of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton by 22per cent and 10 per cent respectively.


----------



## alanding (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> Mate...the volumes begin traded on this stock are *ridiculously* low. Sometimes $20k a day. Just a few people getting a little bored and wanting to move their piddly amounts elsewhere
> 
> I wouldn't read anything into this. I think this stock is now at a crossroads, with those believing in a positive PFS already onboard, and those who don't are already out




I agree with you. Sometimes the gap between asking price and bid price is 0.05. Aslo with so low volume.  So what we need the  PFS.


----------



## toc_bat (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

yeh i guess i was tryig to say that, but it didnt really come across, i know ysterdays low of 60c was reached due to one $6ktrade from 64.5 -> 60, its just a handfull of sellers,


----------



## toc_bat (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

well i rang the company and they told me the pfs will definitely be out this month, he wouldnt be more specific as he said he is only willing to repeat to me what has already been told to the market,


----------



## Caliente (13 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey all - the transient drop in FWL is due to the tight holding structure.

Tiny tiny sell volumes will make this one move, so just hang on strong as the reverse applies as well. 

Come PFS (before the end of this month) there is going to be some brutal buying, I put my name on it.

Cheers
-Cali


----------



## stefoid (15 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> I don't think the process will be a problem at all. Kobe Steel are crying out for ITmk3 to be recognised globally.
> 
> The real 'issue' is the grades of the concentrate. However, if you compare Cleveland Cliff's grades (ITmk3 approved) with Ferrowest's samples, you will see great similarities. Therefore, no issue at all...I hope
> 
> ...




Isnt the _planned _c.cliffs project the first comercial proper sized implementation of the project?  Its a plus that some other company is biting the bullet first so that both CC and kobe can 'iron out' whatever kinks they find for us.  but I wouldnt bet my left one that there wont be problems.


----------



## Lachlan6 (15 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

From the sounds of things (FWL) sounds like a great opportunity. Thanks for the fundamental opinions on this one. From a chart perspective I am waiting for a break of the bullish triangle pattern before I enter, probably at around 75c. This pattern is very bullish after a strong rise in price and especially when supported by low volume which is the case. Watching and waiting.


----------



## Pommiegranite (15 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



stefoid said:


> Isnt the _planned _c.cliffs project the first comercial proper sized implementation of the project? Its a plus that some other company is biting the bullet first so that both CC and kobe can 'iron out' whatever kinks they find for us. but I wouldnt bet my left one that there wont be problems.




Maybe...but I'm guessing that most of us would have taken some profits well before Cleaveland Cliffs or Ferrowest begin production


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Looks like theres some buyers trying to accumulate before PFS is out,

I still expect FWL to hit at least $1 if the PFS stacks up and given thats only 2 weeks away at most as MD has repeatedly stated it will be out before the end of the month,

A few people have asked how they expect the stock to behave once the PFS is out and if the SP has already factored it in etc etc

Well I think that it has to some extent but not fully, 
I don't think the PFS will be a buy the rumour sell the fact situation for one reason

The PFS should show EBIT of $75mp.a. for at least 20-30yrs,

So you would Expect the stock to trade close to at least 1 yr of EBIT, say $85m = $1 FWL

Interesting times lay ahead 



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> $200m p.a. US = $250m p.a. AUD (US/AUD 80c)
> 30 yrs = *Gross Cash Flow Total of $7.5Billion*
> 
> Still I prefer to work with the EBIT of $150/t for 500kt's for 30yrs
> ...


----------



## alanding (16 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Looks like theres some buyers trying to accumulate before PFS is out,
> 
> I still expect FWL to hit at least $1 if the PFS stacks up and given thats only 2 weeks away at most as MD has repeatedly stated it will be out before the end of the month,
> 
> ...






From the buyers' depth we can say that. It is totally different from the depth a week ago, which buyers were less and the prices were not successive.
2	25,300	0.655
4	300,800	0.650
1	200,000	0.640
1	13,000	0.635
2	15,900	0.630
2	14,450	0.620
1	6,000	0.615
1	10,000	0.610
3	7,336	0.600
1	17,699	0.565


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

lol Alanding,

I see you decided to enlarge my comment and paint it bright Red, nice ramp lol,

But yes I do agree that the buyers are coming on and depth looks alot stronger now,

Maybe gearing up for a run? Who knows 

Its the PFS that I'm waiting for


----------



## jammin (16 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Lachlan6 said:


> From the sounds of things (FWL) sounds like a great opportunity. Thanks for the fundamental opinions on this one. From a chart perspective I am waiting for a break of the bullish triangle pattern before I enter, probably at around 75c.



Lachlan, I also like this consolidation. Just wondering about your entry signal. You mention entry at around 75c, do you also look for a close above the upper line of the triangle to confirm the breakout? From an EW viewpoint FWL may also be commencing a minor 3rd wave. I will post a chart tonight.
Thanks for the F/A input YT. Many fellow ASF members have recommended that I include some F/A in my trading decisions (which to date have been pure chart plays using SP and volume only). That extra info does give me greater confidence when trying to figure the possible reward from the trade.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (16 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



jammin said:


> Lachlan, I also like this consolidation. Just wondering about your entry signal. You mention entry at around 75c, do you also look for a close above the upper line of the triangle to confirm the breakout? From an EW viewpoint FWL may also be commencing a minor 3rd wave. I will post a chart tonight.
> Thanks for the F/A input YT. Many fellow ASF members have recommended that I include some F/A in my trading decisions (which to date have been pure chart plays using SP and volume only). That extra info does give me greater confidence when trying to figure the possible reward from the trade.




I agree I looked at the chart and it looks to be consolidating for a second move,

Also the buy depth has increased substantially today, I wonder whats up? After seeing CUL I have no doubt that insider trading is rife in the ASX


Well 11 Trading days to go until PFS,

I can't wait, especially when FWL appears to be trading at less than 1 yr of 30 yrs of EBIT!


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I agree I looked at the chart and it looks to be consolidating for a second move,
> 
> Also the buy depth has increased substantially today, I wonder whats up? After seeing CUL I have no doubt that insider trading is rife in the ASX
> 
> ...




or is it 1 year of 45 yrs of EBIT? OR is it 1 year of 100 years of EBIT?

YT....good to see you are very conservative with your figures. I guess after PFS, FWL will want to drill the *whole *of the 27k strike length.


----------



## serendip (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

A sample of ore from Yalgoo was sent to Kobe Steel, for testing as to its suitability for use with the ITmk3 rotary hearth process, about three weeks ago.

Have you heard whether results from this test are likely to be available in time for incorporation into the Pre-Feasibility Study?  An OK on this score would be a tremendous boost, by reducing the largest single risk facing the project.

Cheers,  Serendip


----------



## UPKA (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Looks positive today, lots of buyers building up, managed to topped up a lil over the last few days when it went south a lil. 

And yes the results of the sample testing is important too, bt the MD was rather optimistic abt it, so i think it wont be too bad.


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



serendip said:


> A sample of ore from Yalgoo was sent to Kobe Steel, for testing as to its suitability for use with the ITmk3 rotary hearth process, about three weeks ago.
> 
> Have you heard whether results from this test are likely to be available in time for incorporation into the Pre-Feasibility Study? An OK on this score would be a tremendous boost, by reducing the largest single risk facing the project.
> 
> Cheers, Serendip




Hey Serendip,

I have no idea about this. You could email Brett Manning. There is a contact form on the website.

He seems to be a very approachable person and has replied to me previously in great detail in super quick time.


----------



## serendip (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thanks for the suggestion, PG.  I decided to just call, spoke to Daniel Bredenkamp (Co. Sec.), who was positive and direct.  He understands that the test process is lengthy, and that no results are expected for another two months or so, which obviously means around end-September.

Although the first commercial plant will be that for Cleveland Cliffs, a quick search of the literature suggests that ITmk3, and its related predecessor processes (Midrex and FASTMET) have been under development for a number of years, and the technology is well-understood.  

Mr Bredenkamp also confirmed that applications for additional leases, covering extensions of the orebody to both the north and the south, have been lodged, and are awaiting approval from the WA Mines Department.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I agree I looked at the chart and it looks to be consolidating for a second move,
> 
> Also the buy depth has increased substantially today, I wonder whats up? After seeing CUL I have no doubt that insider trading is rife in the ASX
> 
> ...




From the look of things the buyers are competeting to get in and this maybe moving up, maybe, I'm no techie, but I think 70c was important, but I also think 75c and 80c will be important,

Techies, what do you see as the breakout/turnaround level?



Lachlan6 said:


> From the sounds of things (FWL) sounds like a great opportunity. Thanks for the fundamental opinions on this one. From a chart perspective I am waiting for a break of the bullish triangle pattern before I enter, probably at around 75c. This pattern is very bullish after a strong rise in price and especially when supported by low volume which is the case. Watching and waiting.


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



serendip said:


> Thanks for the suggestion, PG. I decided to just call, spoke to Daniel Bredenkamp (Co. Sec.), who was positive and direct. He understands that the test process is lengthy, and that no results are expected for another two months or so, which obviously means around end-September.
> 
> Although the first commercial plant will be that for Cleveland Cliffs, a quick search of the literature suggests that ITmk3, and its related predecessor processes (Midrex and FASTMET) have been under development for a number of years, and the technology is well-understood.
> 
> *Mr Bredenkamp also confirmed that applications for additional leases, covering extensions of the orebody to both the north and the south, have been lodged, and are awaiting approval from the WA Mines Department*.




Good work Serendip...adding to the researched intellectual value of this thread

YT...wish I could help you with the charts.....but I do think we will see a big run up before PFS...which could still be 2 weeks away


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Techies, what do you see as the breakout/turnaround level?



I remember reading somewhere that from these types of formations the distance of the widest part of the triangle is the projected target. I'll try and find a reference, but until then anyone can shoot me down! 

(probabilities, not certainties  )

(that's only if it breaks up, too)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



kennas said:


> I remember reading somewhere that from these types of formations the distance of the widest part of the triangle is the projected target. I'll try and find a reference, but until then anyone can shoot me down!
> 
> (probabilities, not certainties  )
> 
> (that's only if it breaks up, too)




Hey Kennarico, 

What a ramp, thats a blatent ramp, I say ban! Ban him! lol you did say _"but until then anyone can shoot me down! "_ lol :

Thanks for the chart, so 75c looks to be the important level and we are sort paused here to, interesting ... ... especially since that target of 95c is near previous intra day high, what do you make of that?


----------



## jammin (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Thanks for the chart, so 75c looks to be the important level and we are sort paused here to, interesting ... ... especially since that target of 95c is near previous intra day high, what do you make of that?



YT, 75c was my next pyramid point on my trading plan, as the SP passes the previous high of the 6th July. Then I am waiting for 93c to be passed. 
Damn, that 50k order at .75c, on the sell side is slowing the SP rise.
I will have another vallium and meditate on the art of patience.


----------



## UPKA (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



jammin said:


> YT, 75c was my next pyramid point on my trading plan, as the SP passes the previous high of the 6th July. Then I am waiting for 93c to be passed.
> Damn, that 50k order at .75c, on the sell side is slowing the SP rise.
> I will have another vallium and meditate on the art of patience.




overall, i think most ppl r holding, everyone knows that the PFS is coming out in matter of weeks or even days, so hardly anyone selling. i think there will be alot of dumping when PFS is released, so better to get in position early.


----------



## Sean K (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Kennarico,
> 
> What a ramp, thats a blatent ramp, I say ban! Ban him! lol you did say _"but until then anyone can shoot me down! "_ lol :
> 
> Thanks for the chart, so 75c looks to be the important level and we are sort paused here to, interesting ... ... especially since that target of 95c is near previous intra day high, what do you make of that?



Here's the background to an ascending triangle:

*Ascending Triangle (Continuation)*

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation. 

Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. Let's examine each individual part of the pattern and then look at an example. 

*Trend*: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. However, because the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the current trend is not as important as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount.
*Top Horizontal Line*: At least 2 reaction high reaction highs are required to form the top horizontal line. The highs do not have to be exact, but they should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the highs, and a reaction low between them.
*Lower Ascending Trend Line*: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower ascending trend line. These reaction lows should be successively higher, and there should be some distance between the lows. If a more recent reaction low is equal to or less than the previous reaction low, then the ascending triangle is not valid.
*Duration*: The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months.
Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts. When the upside breakout occurs, there should be an expansion of volume to confirm the breakout. While volume confirmation is preferred, it is not always necessary.
*Return to Breakout*: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that resistance turns into support and vice versa. When the horizontal resistance line of the ascending triangle is broken, it turns into support. Sometimes there will be a return to this support level before the move begins in earnest.
*Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and applying it to the resistance breakout.*

That's not to say that this is the perfect ascending triangle, or even if a breakout will occur. It's probably too short a time frame, and too many day traders in and out. (sorry if you disagree Niz 

My tip is it will crash now.  

However, recently, I seem to be getting it right. Or, the charts are getting it right.


----------



## jammin (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> i think there will be alot of dumping when PFS is released, so better to get in position early.



Upka, I also believe the saying "buy the rumor, sell the fact". Though, on a quick review, I am not seeing any short term correlation between the SP surges and release of announcements for FWL. You make a good point though. I will be watching/preparing for the SP to drop post announcement.


----------



## Fool (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hey guys, does it look like someone is capping it at 75cent to accumulate ?
seem to be some large orders that have been changing alot to day, any thoughts??


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> hey guys, does it look like someone is capping it at 75cent to accumulate ?
> seem to be some large orders that have been changing alot to day, any thoughts??




I don't know about that.

There's more showing on the buy side above 70c than there is on the sell side below $1.

It would take a lot more than 96k to cap this stock.


----------



## UPKA (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

ok the some js took out about 100k shares, so definately no capping, js lots of accumulation. the rate this is going, looks like the FPS is js around the corner!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Many on here are talking of a buy the rumour sell the fact situation, however after talking with my broker I on't believe this is so for the following reasons,

If we compare FWL to its 3 peers, AXO, IDO and GRR again


*FWL*
*Share Structure* 55m shares + 30m 25c 1/6/2010 Options
Mkt Cap  @*75c* = *$41.25m *undiluted or *$63.75m *fully diluted 

*Project*
NPV = *$1 Billion *based on EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs

CAP EX = *$330m* including a 20% blow out

Infrastructure = *Excellent* on the main highway to the main Gerladton Port, major gas pipeline runs through the deposit, town of Yalgoo only 14kms down the major highway

Ore = *Good* although low grade, its coarse and testing has shown "This sample produced a very good iron recovery coupled with a low silica return at a coarse (and therefore cost effective) grind size"


*IDO*
*Share Structure* 80m shares

Mkt Cap  @*$1.25c* = *$100m *fully diluted 

*Project* 70% Only
NPV = *$800m* Pig Iron like FWL!

CAP EX = *$750m* 

Infrastructure = *Poor* Its in Indonesia, and given huge Cap Ex I'd say Poor!

Ore = *Poor* Its an Iron SANDS deposit grading 10% Fe so will be difficult IMO to beneficate etc



*AXO*
*Share Structure* 172m shares + conv notes + 11m 20c 20/10/2007 + 16m in the money unlisted opies

Mkt Cap  @*$1.30c* = *$225m *undiluted or *$260m *fully diluted 

*Project*
NPV = *$500m* Ferro Vanadium production

CAP EX = *$500m* 

Infrastructure = *Avg* requires alot of Infra

Ore = *Good* for Vanadium production, but unsure how easy it will be to produce Ferro Vandium 




*GRR*
*Share Structure* 110m shares

Mkt Cap  @*$2.50* = *$240m *fully diluted 

*Project*70% Only
NPV = *Could be huge $2Billion ?* Iron Pelletss

CAP EX = *$1.5Billion* 

Infrastructure = *Poor* needs to build power plant, then build power lines, needs to build a slurry pipe line that goes 100kms, needs to dredge the port to make it deep water etc, clearly alot of work here, but rewards could be exceptional

Ore = *Excellent* for Iron Pellet production, the high grade ore keeps operating costs down 




So the point I'm trying to make, is aguably GRR is the most advanced and most likely to get into production the soonest, IDO seems risky and requires a large CAP EX, AXO seems cheap when compared to PMA and GRR but I don't know what the operationl risk is with beneficating Ferro Vanadium,

But now AXO has also been repriced,


*Bottom line is that FWL even at these levels seems undervalued at $60m, the peer comparison suggested $50m to begin with which it has now convincily held, but I still think given the PFS expected EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30yrs-50yrs this should hit that $100m mkt cap = $1.20*

Thoughts?


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

YT, undoubtedly there will be some profit taking...such as your sell order of 250,000 options at 0.99c 



...and as Serendip found out, the potential is relatively untapped. So if there is any retracement after PFS, on the long term chart, it ill appear as the tiniest of blips.

"*Mr Bredenkamp also confirmed that applications for additional leases, covering extensions of the orebody to both the north and the south, have been lodged, and are awaiting approval from the WA Mines Department*."


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> YT, undoubtedly there will be some profit taking...such as your sell order of 250,000 options at 0.99c




Sorry to dissapoint mate but thats not me, I hold 600k in 3 different accounts,  200k in each, so the most I could put up in one order would be 200k, but $1 would be nice, yeah I'd take profits at $1, but only some, the rest would be a long term hold for me


----------



## Pommiegranite (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Sorry to dissapoint mate but thats not me, I hold 600k in 3 different accounts, 200k in each, so the most I could put up in one order would be 200k, but $1 would be nice, yeah I'd take profits at $1, but only some, the rest would be a long term hold for me




Not disappointed in the slightest. Infact today has been a good day.

It's good to see that end of day profit taking was minimal. Hopefully this will provide a good base to press on tomorrow.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (17 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yeah I'm not too dissapointed either,

According to the charts posted has this broken out now? 

It was an all time high close, and volume was about 5x normal, ie 1m vs 200k

Tomorrow should be interesting, I still wonder though after seeing CUL if insiders bought today and yesterday because the news has leaked, oh well all this thinking is making my head hurt lol


----------



## UPKA (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

the build up this morning is js amazing, looks like someone is desperately trying to get in, news must be good!

did anyone notice that 100k order @90c pulled out in the last min ?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> the build up this morning is js amazing, looks like someone is desperately trying to get in, news must be good!
> 
> did anyone notice that 100k order @90c pulled out in the last min ?




Yeah I saw that, he kep going up then off up then off, I think thats him at 82.5c

Either way breakout confirmed, this could be the pre-pfs run


----------



## tibby (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I watched that 100k order in the pre-open as well, pushed the opening price from 81 at around 830am right up to its high of 86.5 then as that order and others were pulled seconds before open the opening price dropped to .84 . 

Funny to watch it though, as 100k was put up at .90, a lot of smaller orders popped up to that point as well (within seconds), and sure enough as the order was pulled---so too were the small orders....I reckon the order was for a bit of fun from the second it was put up! Trying to fluff up the pre-open.......


----------



## Pommiegranite (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



tibby said:


> I watched that 100k order in the pre-open as well, pushed the opening price from 81 at around 830am right up to its high of 86.5 then as that order and others were pulled seconds before open the opening price dropped to .84 .
> 
> Funny to watch it though, as 100k was put up at .90, a lot of smaller orders popped up to that point as well (within seconds), and sure enough as the order was pulled---so too were the small orders....I reckon the order was for a bit of fun from the second it was put up! Trying to fluff up the pre-open.......




I don't think YT is on this thread anymore....he's now distracted by RMI...and with good reason!!!!!!!


----------



## Potato381 (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi all. 

I'm a newbie and FWL is my second largest holding. I'm in this for the long term. Can I get some educated opinions on what the SP will be long term. Say 1 -3 years. I've done some research and i'm educating myself daily but the share market is still a bit Greek to me. Cheers.


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Potato381 said:


> Hi all.
> 
> I'm a newbie and FWL is my second largest holding. I'm in this for the long term. Can I get some educated opinions on what the SP will be long term. Say 1 -3 years. I've done some research and i'm educating myself daily but the share market is still a bit Greek to me. Cheers.



Spud, where this will be in one week is anyone's guess, let alone a year, or three! So much water under the bridge...Best guess is to look at projected eps from their project and compare to peers. Unfortunately, we don't have that yet. YT's analysis is a good place to start, but we need the analysis from the company with the first hand info. Wait for BFS for confirmation.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey Spud, 

There is plenty of info on this thread, you must take the time to read through it and get an understanding,

Also for rough calculations and figures see the companies web site, they have already done scoping studies on the project which show some very Robust Cash flows

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html

*EBIT of $75m p.a. for 30+ yrs*


----------



## alanding (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Potato381 said:


> Hi all.
> 
> I'm a newbie and FWL is my second largest holding. I'm in this for the long term. Can I get some educated opinions on what the SP will be long term. Say 1 -3 years. I've done some research and i'm educating myself daily but the share market is still a bit Greek to me. Cheers.




Read through this thread. and read all the ann of the company. I think this will help you very much.


----------



## Potato381 (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Thanks all. I have read through most of this thread, it along with the info on their website was the trigger for my buy at .45c. I'm still learning this capper but so far so good. I'm going to hold this one long term. SLA is my other big hold. Looking good. Just getting nervous seeing me money rise so high... it's all good though, love it. Good luck to all.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

What happened, I was looking at some other stuff for a sec and whamo, we're back at 80c,

Was bound to happen, probably traders locking in profits,


Kenna what's the chart saying?


----------



## Sean K (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Kenna what's the chart saying?



Looks very good. That gap up is hopefully a breakaway gap and won't be filled. If it is filled then the lower part of the gap _should _be very good support, pending toppish market effects. Previous mentioned target still _might _be hit.


----------



## Caliente (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hey YT - I wouldn't fret, in the scheme of things this is still pretty low volume stuff. 

I'm still anticipating that sometime in the next few days to a week a large retail investor or an insto will arrive and takes 500K - 1M off the table in a swoop, although calculated buying seems the go atm.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey Calliente, not fretting at all, its just the depth changed very very quickly

Kenna so you recokon 80c will act as support? or 75c? 

It certainly doesn't look like anyone wants to sell below 80c,

Close should be interesting


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey Kennarico, 

So chart wise it has now broken out from 75c and is may be headed towards 95c, 

The opening Gap was filled today though as an intra day low,

Although I sometimes question technicals, I am nevertheless fasinated by them, 

Watching and waiting, *9 days to go until the end of the month, so max 9 day till we get PFS!*




kennas said:


> Looks very good. That gap up is hopefully a breakaway gap and won't be filled. If it is filled then the lower part of the gap _should _be very good support, pending toppish market effects. Previous mentioned target still _might _be hit.







kennas said:


> Here's the background to an ascending triangle:
> 
> *Ascending Triangle (Continuation)*
> 
> ...


----------



## Sean K (19 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Calliente, not fretting at all, its just the depth changed very very quickly
> 
> Kenna so you recokon 80c will act as support? or 75c?
> 
> ...



The bottom of the gap up should be the support, at about 78 cents, but we can't really say what sort of a gap up it is until further price action. There's no real solid support line there so I'd say around 75 _ish _for the minute. You could also draw a line up along a vague short term upward support line too which _may _provide support. On the downside the sp may hit this around 75ish as well which adds to that position.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well we closed at the low of 74c which is just a smidge below that 75c line so I guess you could say we closed a smidge below Kenna's techie support levels,

Whats interesting is that the rise of yesterday and the day before was 2m shares, yet todays re-trace was 175k shares, 

Still waiting for PFS 8 days to go


----------



## Fool (19 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Once FWL settles down, does anyone have an idea on what the premium will be on the option considering they expire June 2010? From other stocks I have seen its general 3 cent a year?


----------



## Pommiegranite (19 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I think some of the trades which happened today sum up the way this stock is traded on low volume.

For example on the options when the price was 50c:

There was a 50K sell order for 50c sitting there for a while.
The person then sold the 50K at market @ 47 & 45.

So the options lost 10% just on just 1 impatient small trade.

Oh well...it was worth the amusement.


----------



## idaho (19 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I took another little nibble of those options, probably from the buyer you mentioned, at 3:04p.m. 47cents was just too tempting! As YT pointed out, there were a lot more shares and more money changeing hands on the two previous up days. Yesterday's shares all at 80 cents and above totaled over $800,000. I estimate no more than $140, 000. went down today. I'm stickin' with the money!!


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (20 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Looks like FWL bounced off the 74c/75c support line,

Volumes are light though today, but are already more than yesterdays fall which is positive I think


----------



## mobcat (20 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The heads and oppies look like they might see some action today a lot of people want in on FWL,FWLO and i think they are just starting to realise they are going to have to pay $$$$$ for them $1 is on the way imo with pre PFS pressure alone IMO and then we might see some more shares come on offer and then we will get the vols to make this baby run to some real numbers $1+Ferrowest has all the signs of a mover and has the dirt and plans to fuel a run the press will pick up on FWL anytime i fell and run the value add slogan to the hilt and management is very silly if they dont push the value add side of there biz plan with all the cash coming from minning  into the goverment coffers i can see in the future some nice incentives coming to companys that keep the jobs in OZ goodluck and use local comms for the process you would not belive what the goverment did to get alcoa to v add in geelong they practically gave them the electricty to do the process this ones a no brainer imo just a matter of time very happy to be holding


----------



## tibby (23 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well not long now guys...PFS due end of July which means 7 more trading days........

29-06-2007 08:27 AM  FWL  First Resource Estimate - Yalgoo Iron Project  

"Metallurgical testwork is still underway, as part of the Pre-feasibility Study that is due for completion before the end of July. When the results of the metallurgical testwork are combined with the geophysical and resource models, this will provide an excellent understanding of the Yogi deposit and be used to define infill drilling targets"


----------



## Fool (24 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

News out for FWL, most old news recapping for investor when the PFS comes out. 

“Work on the Pre-feasibility Study for the Yalgoo Iron Project was advanced throughout the Quarter and is now nearing completion.” 

wont be long now...


----------



## UPKA (24 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> News out for FWL, most old news recapping for investor when the PFS comes out.
> 
> “Work on the Pre-feasibility Study for the Yalgoo Iron Project was advanced throughout the Quarter and is now nearing completion.”
> 
> wont be long now...




im suspecting tomorrow, because the directors arent allowed to sell or buy 2 weeks be4 any price sensitive announcements, and it will be 2 weeks on wednesday, so im guessing it should be out tomorrow...


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (25 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Guys did anyone see the Presentation?

MD Brett Manning will be presenting at Mid West Resource forum later today,

I think thats why we had the push last week, well it won't take much buying from this forum to get SP moving


Keep a close eye on FWL today towards the close


----------



## Pommiegranite (25 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Guys did anyone see the Presentation?
> 
> MD Brett Manning will be presenting at Mid West Resource forum later today,
> 
> ...




Yep....went through the presentation. It simplifies everything we know already.

I didn't like the disclaimers on the first page though


----------



## mobcat (25 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yeah not to bad at all the preso today  by FWL i think if i was fence sitting on FWL awaiting a nudge this would do it for me pre PFS i have been holding for over a month now just awaiting managements pre PFS play and i like what they are laying out ATM very important week this one for fwl and it looks like they lay a nice path for a run good times ahead guys very happy holding shes a big earner this one IMO just how big the next week will answer the question im planning on $1 plus on pre PFS pressure alone but the US forecast might hammer that .........But like YT said todays close could be interesting with the crew from WA with deep pockets getting amognst the few on offer under a dollar if she do,s run my bet is it will be a rocket


----------



## toc_bat (26 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

hi all

being a novice at T/A let alone F/A all I could think of was to ring the co again when saw yesterdays ann, as i initially thought it smelled like an excuse to delay the PFS release, anyway i spoke to the secretary and she said yes the PFS looks like it will be released before end of month,  'i think so' or 'i beleive so' were her words, I must admit a small part of me is wondering what if the PFS concludes the project to be unfeasable and they pack up and go home, but by all accounts and by the presentation it looks like they are really keen to get the project of the ground, so its more than likely the PFS ough to be (+),


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (26 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> hi all
> 
> being a novice at T/A let alone F/A all I could think of was to ring the co again when saw yesterdays ann, as i initially thought it smelled like an excuse to delay the PFS release, anyway i spoke to the secretary and she said yes the PFS looks like it will be released before end of month,  'i think so' or 'i beleive so' were her words, *I must admit a small part of me is wondering what if the PFS concludes the project to be unfeasable and they pack up and go home,* but by all accounts and by the presentation it looks like they are really keen to get the project of the ground, so its more than likely the PFS ough to be (+),




Pack up and go home? 

Aren't we being a bit dramatic?

I mean you could say, maybe the PFS might show the project to be marginal (which given the info we have is unlikely) etc but pack up and go home?

If you analysed every spec share that way, then you wouldn't invest in the Spec sector of the stock market, heck FMG aren't producing yet, maybe after taking on all these Billions in debt they'll pack up and go home? :


----------



## mobcat (26 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I think that FWLO FWL might be starting to see the buy pressure building on PFS pressure and WA preso funds ATM the sp is being very slowly closed in on on both the heads and the oppies with a gradual increase in volume and price offering on this morning ..............if we continue this way for the next hour or so somebodys going to jump the ladder and take the lift and race this to a dollar IMO fun day ahead people enjoy the action worth watching


----------



## UPKA (26 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

buyers r coming in now, we'll prob see a buying rush in the next 30mins or so right before closing. lets hope the ann comes out tomorrow!


----------



## Ruprect (26 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> buyers r coming in now, we'll prob see a buying rush in the next 30mins or so right before closing. lets hope the ann comes out tomorrow!




Yep, agreed UPKA, it certainly has all the appearance of something about to happen. They arent small orders waiting in the low 80's either, with very little on the sell side.

On another note, the oppies here are trading again at a very serious discount to the heads, at the moment, 5cents.  That can happen on limited turnover, but with an announcement, id expect them to match up or run at a small premium.


----------



## toc_bat (28 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Pack up and go home?
> 
> Aren't we being a bit dramatic?
> 
> ...




well YT there is always the pessimistic side to everything, its worst scenario stuff i admit, and theres a little niggly part of me that considers the worst case scenario, anyway i think its obvious that the way most business enterprises work, milk run or mining co, is there is some original impetus, so its most likely that the essentials of the PFS were done way back otherwise they wouldnt have come this far, essentially i was letting my muse entertain the dark side, the PFS is more for investors really isnt it? you need to put something down on paper to attract backers to the project, the directors were obviously convinced of its viability back at day 1 - unless of course the whole thing is a scam, and now that the directors have sold their shares at a premium they are packing up and not going home but going to rio de janerio instead !! hehe

but seriously has the PFS been factored in? is it possible that unsless the PFS is a real shining bit of .pdf there will be a sell down? in any case long term FWL looks good, perhaps day 2 post PFS may not be as good, .... we'll all see soon.

ok bye


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (28 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> well YT there is always the pessimistic side to everything, its worst scenario stuff i admit, and theres a little niggly part of me that considers the worst case scenario, anyway i think its obvious that the way most business enterprises work, milk run or mining co, is there is some original impetus, so its most likely that the essentials of the PFS were done way back otherwise they wouldnt have come this far, essentially i was letting my muse entertain the dark side, the PFS is more for investors really isnt it? you need to put something down on paper to attract backers to the project, the directors were obviously convinced of its viability back at day 1 - unless of course the whole thing is a scam, and now that the directors have sold their shares at a premium they are packing up and not going home but going to rio de janerio instead !! hehe
> 
> but seriously has the PFS been factored in? is it possible that unsless the PFS is a real shining bit of .pdf there will be a sell down? in any case long term FWL looks good, perhaps day 2 post PFS may not be as good, .... we'll all see soon.
> 
> ok bye




Hey Toc,

Rio De Janerio ehh? Well now that you mention I know this guy named Kennarico who I think invested in FWL and now he's off in Peru, maybe somethings up? : lol 

On a serious note its good to play devil's advocate, but note the Directors shares are escrowed for another 6-12months I'm pretty sure,

As for the PFS, its really the piece of paper that should show a NPV on the project and draw brokers towards it, if you check other similar companies gain alot of Insto and Broker support on the back of PFS and BFS studies,

But only time will tell what will happen, given the mkts are now experiencing a correction a doubt we will see a huge surge in the SP, but I'm pretty sure we will see constant buying on the back of the PFS results

Cheers


----------



## Pommiegranite (28 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Toc,
> 
> Rio De Janerio ehh? Well now that you mention I know this guy named Kennarico who I think invested in FWL and now he's off in Peru, maybe somethings up? : lol
> 
> ...



.


and I might add that MGO just released a PFS on Friday and the SP held only dropped 1 point. 

I think the fact that the capex for MGO will be huge, as per PFS, also was a factor which subdued the SP.

Ferrowest's PFS should not have this problem, and the huge margins will be plain to see.

Now hopefully the DOW can keep up its end, although the way it sold off again in the last hour doesn't bode well for Monday night


----------



## toc_bat (28 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Toc,
> 
> Rio De Janerio ehh? Well now that you mention I know this guy named Kennarico who I think invested in FWL and now he's off in Peru, maybe somethings up? : lol
> 
> ...




id rather see and slow and steady climb that erratic ups and downs (well not too slow) about a 20degree incline would be just fine, as for PFS yeh that about is what i figured its for, to atract investorsbroker, after all a bank manager wants to see a business plan if someone wants to start a business, so these guys need to show something on FWLs behalf to get the project off the ground,

well lets see how it does,

ps there might be a sell off because a few individuals may not be too impressed, and we have seen FWL drop sinigifcantloy on certain days because of 100,000 shares sold, and that could easily be attributed to 1 or 2 people, so a preparedness for all situations is required, i remember one of my first mistakes was with JMS, i bought in to an ann at 17.5c, only for some holders to sell and the price dropped by about 15% so decided to cut my loss the next day, two days later it hit 37c!!!!!!!! and a few days after that 44c odd, you may remeber that YT, you were one of the ones trying to point out out to me the rashness of my intended sale, ........ now if only i had heeded!!!!

and oh yeah ive noticed kennas has put peru on his location, hmmm, maybe hes spying out there on cts, although i think he might be spying out on machu pichu, i think id rather do that


----------



## Fool (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

What is the go with the PFS?

The MD has been adamant for months that it will be out in July.... yet here we are sitting and waiting for it with 1.5 days left of trading.

I fear this is bad time for such an important announcement to be released with the whole market scared of an impending collapse.


----------



## UPKA (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> What is the go with the PFS?
> 
> The MD has been adamant for months that it will be out in July.... yet here we are sitting and waiting for it with 1.5 days left of trading.
> 
> I fear this is bad time for such an important announcement to be released with the whole market scared of an impending collapse.




Im guessing the ann has been lodged to ASX, and its up to the exchange to release it now. Dont worry about the correction, i dont think the holders in FWL r ur average Joes, so they definately know what they r buying into, wouldnt sell js because theres a correction in the market.


----------



## mobcat (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Dont stress Fool the US markets sub prime faces a 200 billion dollar loss and that causes a 2 trillion dollar sell down that makes no sense to me just compounds a problem and the market dosent compound it levels the scales and op,s present FWL,s a nice place to park fold atm and earn on PFS i dont think the market has factored any PFS into FWL sp atm and it might take a week or so for it to soak in but it will show a earn FWL FWLO in August imo


----------



## Fool (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Rang the director and without actually saying anything, he said there has been no delays and that the PFS will be out by the end of this month.

So it's coming out today or tomorrow, and yes like you have said, it's been lodged with the ASX - now it's just a matter of when it will be released.

I have topped up today on the punt that the PFS will be strong and the low liquidity of this stock means it will be harder to get onto post-PFS. 

There must be a bunch of people just sitting waiting for the PFS, and if it's good news will jump on anything they can get.


----------



## prawn_86 (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

i just purchased a very small parcel in anticipation of the PFS. will only be in it for a short term trade though so hopefully everything falls into place


----------



## Fool (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

As most on here, I think this is a longer term play.

You would probably be best to sit on it until September when the next major announcement is due (BFS? off the top of my head).


----------



## prawn_86 (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

that is part of the reason im in; the long term potential.

i dont normally do short term trades, but i feel comfortable with FWL that if things dont go to plan in the next week i am happy to hold. I will just have to shift some other funds around rather than using the money from FWL that i was expecting to use.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (30 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Looks like FWL bounced off the 74c/75c support line,
> 
> Volumes are light though today, but are already more than yesterdays fall which is positive I think




Well tomorrow is D-Day for FWL, tomorrow is the last day of the month and Brett Manning has been adament that the PFS will be out before the end of the month, so seeing as he released the JORC before the end of June like he said albeit at the 11th hour I expect the PFS to be released after market close tomorrow, thats my call,


Also very good to see that the 75c support line has been respected time and time again, althugh watching the close where a $7k sell took us down to 76c I get the feeling games are being played


----------



## Fool (31 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

With the DOW up 100 points overnight, we should hopefully see some less-nervous buying happening pre-PFS releasement.

Hardly any volume seperating FWL from it's previous high of like 92c ?

 Price Quantity Number 
0.800 1,118 1 
0.810 222 1 
0.820 32,300 1 
0.845 13,157 1 
0.855 31,000 2 
0.865 17,175 2 
0.875 15,250 2 
0.880 1,000 1 
0.885 1,000 1 
0.890 35,157 3 

Is there any advantage for FWL to wait until market is closed to release that announcement?

I don't understand why they wouldn't just push it out at open and let the market do what it will do anyway?


----------



## Fool (31 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> ......... expect the PFS to be released after market close tomorrow, thats my call,




Quoted for truth.

Sort of annoying they didn't get it out before market close - I still can't figure out what advantage they have by doing this.


----------



## UPKA (31 July 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

if we dont see the PFS out soon, alot of impatient holders will jump the boat... wont be good for the SP...


----------



## Pommiegranite (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> if we dont see the PFS out soon, alot of impatient holders will jump the boat... wont be good for the SP...




PFS is out and it looks good.

We originally assumed that output would be 500,000 tpa
PFS shows 1.5 million tpa


----------



## toc_bat (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

yes definitely looks good,

but its 500,000t/yr for the first yrs or so, 1M thereafter, the 1.5M figure is i understand a could be if the resource is upgraded or maybe its an averaged out figure if the mine life is to be 20yrs,

in any case EBITDA is $105M/pa, so now YT get that brokerof yours to buy up all shares cheaper than $1.20 , LOL

but look at that - theres already someone out there who is offering 10,000 shares at 79c, considering they closed at 80c this person is perhaps dissapointed, or is expecting a bidding buy war and wants to be first to sell at a higher price? i dunno, time for bed


----------



## UPKA (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> PFS is out and it looks good.
> 
> We originally assumed that output would be 500,000 tpa
> PFS shows 1.5 million tpa




looks like they lodged in the PFS on the 31st, and ASX released it today. may take couple of days be4 the investors or brokers see this report, so we might have to hold on to this lil one a bit longer...


----------



## Pommiegranite (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



toc_bat said:


> yes definitely looks good,
> 
> but its 500,000t/yr for the first yrs or so, 1M thereafter, the 1.5M figure is i understand a could be if the resource is upgraded or maybe its an averaged out figure if the mine life is to be 20yrs,
> 
> ...




lol...if we all started reading stuff into sellers selling $7900 worth of stock, we are doomed I tell yer.


----------



## toc_bat (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> looks like they lodged in the PFS on the 31st, and ASX released it today. may take couple of days be4 the investors or brokers see this report, so we might have to hold on to this lil one a bit longer...




well the trading of fwl in the last month gave me the impression that sellers and buyers were reluctant, so i guessed they were waiting for the pfs, i think lots of people were, so i reckon they have all read it by now, but it may take a few days to see what the general concensus is,


----------



## Pommiegranite (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> looks like they lodged in the PFS on the 31st, and ASX released it today. may take couple of days be4 the investors or brokers see this report, so we might have to hold on to this lil one a bit longer...




UKPA, the simple fact of the matter is that there is hardly anything for sale i.e $500K. That's all...fullstop! A broker is gonna have a hard time accumulating any meaningful volume.

So predicting the SP is a pointless excercise, as its just so unknown.

Its great to see this project being presented in a 2 stage format. Capital Raising will only be required for stage 1, and I'm sure with the figures presented, an equity partnership will not be a problem further down the track.

Next hurdle...ITmk3.


----------



## charly100 (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Wheres YT?

YT im sure you've seen the PFS by now - what are your thoughts on it, imo it looks pretty good especially with the proposed ramp up within 5 yrs CAPEX is a bit higher than i was expecting but that shouldnt matter too much?


----------



## UPKA (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

the PFS has been corrected, the new operating cost is lower , bt EBITDA is higher... i guess it doesnt make much of a diff


----------



## Damuzzdu (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> the PFS has been corrected, the new operating cost is lower , bt EBITDA is higher... i guess it doesnt make much of a diff




You have it around the wrong way.....the operating cost is now higher and the EBITDA is lower, it might make a difference.

I've looked at it several times just to be sure.

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## UPKA (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Damuzzdu said:


> You have it around the wrong way.....the operating cost is now higher and the EBITDA is lower, it might make a difference.
> 
> I've looked at it several times just to be sure.
> 
> ...




yes i have...  got confused reading two identical reports..., bt how did they make mistake on that!  thats abt 40% difference....


----------



## Damuzzdu (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> yes i have...  got confused reading two identical reports..., bt how did they make mistake on that!  thats abt 40% difference....




UKPA,

Yes it was easy to get confused, I reckon I looked at 5 times before I realized what had happened, and wondered whether someone would post and get it incorrect.

As to the mistake..bloody poor if u ask me, you the hell checked it before it went out. Geez if put that to my MD, I'd be out of a job!!!!!.

Someone will get a kick up the a** for that, I'm sure. 

It does makes difference, although the IRR stays the same, which I'm guessing was correct in the first place, just they got the wrong numbers in EBITDA. They did not take long to correct thou, which is at least something positive 

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## toc_bat (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I am pretty amazed they could make such a large error, what esle can i say, theres no point speculating how it could have happened just baffling,

anyway it scared a few people into selling down,


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I was happy with the announcement,

Although in todays mkt everything is getting spanked!

So the timing was rather unfortunate if you ask me


----------



## Pommiegranite (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I was happy with the announcement,
> 
> Although in todays mkt everything is getting spanked!
> 
> *So the timing was rather unfortunate if you ask me*




I guess it depends on whether you're looking to increase your holdings in the low-mid seventies

We did say support at 75c


----------



## mobcat (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

What a day to release such a positive and financially huge potential Ann BUMMER HEY oh well diamonds all ways shine and this environment wont last for ever remember march seems like a eternity ago but only 4 months have past and what a profitable 4 months it has been for most on the ASX lets look to the next for months and plan our trades and i know that FWL and FWLO will be part of my portfolio come November and i hold a bucket full and they haven't been easy to get so i am not giving these baby's away bottom draw for FWL with a $1.25 sign on the front of it and then i might sell some maybe i will have to think about it first LOL


----------



## Ruprect (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

well, with the market down nearly 3% at the moment, most of these spec stocks (including nearly all of my own!!) are in the red.

The turnover on FWL and FWLO has been very light, only just over 400k on the heads. I think we are seeing the same thing here as we have with the rest of them, some punters are spooked and are panic selling. 

As long as the fundamentals are right, and with the pre feas i believe them to be good, the sp will be fine in the long term. 

The next couple of weeks should see FWL settle a bit more and we will get a clearer picture.


----------



## Pommiegranite (1 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

So now we all know what PFS stands for: *P*iece of *F******g *S***t

At least it only took 2 takes to get it right...but oh what a monumental error


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Well I don't know about you...but I've been shopping today.

People selling at whatever price seems ludicrous to me i.e options at 33/34 cents. I must thank them though. It was to hard to resist to stay out of the market when post PFS options were being offered so cheaply.

Surely we aren't at panic stations yet.

As YT stated the PFS was good news. IMO its a major hurdle overcome.

The next major news is the sample results from Japan, due in September. 

Here's hoping for more red on the DOW tonight so I can catch some more 'falling knives' tomorrow :kiffer:


----------



## UPKA (2 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Pommiegranite said:


> Well I don't know about you...but I've been shopping today.
> 
> People selling at whatever price seems ludicrous to me i.e options at 33/34 cents. I must thank them though. It was to hard to resist to stay out of the market when post PFS options were being offered so cheaply.
> 
> ...





yes alot of shares r been offloaded at some rediculous price. looks like ppl have left the fundermentals behind, and jumping on the bandwagon heading south. but again its a very small sell down, it doesnt take much to move this stock due to the number of shares available. i believe u should get watever amount u want, and put it under the pillow, i'm sure u'll find a big surprise in couple of mths time when the company finish their DES.


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

*I've just found something out, although I'm not sure of its significance in adding further credibility in Ferrowest's choice of ITmk3.*

It relates to Ferrowest's Director/Principal Metallurgist Phillip Evers.


1. We all know that Cleveland-Cliffs have entered into a 10-year alliance with Kobe Steel for commercialization of Kobe’s ITmk3 technology.

2. In 2005 Cleveland-Cliffs bought out Portman Ltd

3. Phillip Evers, prior to his appointment at Ferrowest, was Portman's Technical Project Manager


I wonder if there was some kind of involvement between Evers and Cleveland-Cliffs about their decision in pursuing ITmk3.

Or more likely:

I wonder if he knew that Cleveland-Cliffs were onto a good thing and therefore decided he would be better of 'going it alone' with their plans, as a director of a new company i.e Ferrowest

Ferrowest have openly credited Evers for the MPI idea, but his links to Cleveland Cliffs were previously unknown to me (See page 2 of this release)

*Any thoughts guys?*


----------



## jtb (2 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Playing the devils advocate here but there was another article in todays West Australian concerning the grief Mt Gibson iron are going through with their Fe resource (and its haematite too from memory) 85 ks east of Perenjori (about 90k's due south of FWL's Yalgoo lease).

The WA Government aren't too keen on us destroying all our BIF ridges over here as they host specific flora and fauna types yadayadayada.
Anyway there are a few reserves between the two resources and (when I used to drill out there anyway) quite a few tour operators that run tours in particular for the wildflowers.

The article basically re-iterated what has been previously said (and what prevented me buying these @ 30c) and that is it will likely grant the Extension Hill permit but then protect the rest of the mid-west region (containing a stated $62 billion Fe resource). 

I don't have any more detail to how far the line is being drawn in the sand but yalgoo is the middle of the midwest!!

Haven't been able to post a link but can scan the article if anyone is interested.


----------



## Pommiegranite (2 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



jtb said:


> Playing the devils advocate here but there was another article in todays West Australian concerning the grief Mt Gibson iron are going through with their Fe resource (and its haematite too from memory) 85 ks east of Perenjori (about 90k's due south of FWL's Yalgoo lease).
> 
> The WA Government aren't too keen on us destroying all our BIF ridges over here as they host specific flora and fauna types yadayadayada.
> Anyway there are a few reserves between the two resources and (when I used to drill out there anyway) quite a few tour operators that run tours in particular for the wildflowers.
> ...




WA goverment would be cutting their own purse strings...to be totally honest, I can't see it happening


----------



## countryboy (2 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

pommy
i've been shooping too
iron Ore more FWL, added ADY,YML and spec PSP, RMI (have Fe but chasing other things) CBH ( also concentrating on other things) Pleased as punch
200,000 odd shares traded in FWL today is pretty small. I tend to ignore the price movements on thin volume.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (3 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWL is getting slammed on low volume,

Technically it has clearly dropped well below 75c level and now should find support at 55c,

I think that it may range trade between 55c and 85c/90c until a catalyst emerges to break it out,

Fundamentally everything looks good,

However I think many were expecting a much larger NPV figure as was I, after discussing this with my broker and reading some other posts on FWL I too agree that the fact is the current economics are based on the 112Mt JORC, now this should be at least 2x as big, 

Th thing is though that the current JORC is absorbing all of the huge CAP EX, so when additional tonnages are brought into the JORC economies of scale come into play and the NPV rises dramatically as none of the additional JORC ore that comes in is eaten away at by the Cap Ex

Also it should be remembered how thinly traded this stock is a 100k buy would take this up to would take this up to 75c and a 100k sell would take it down to 50c


----------



## charly100 (5 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Ahhh.. thanks YT, in the midst of the panick selling i totally forgot about that aspect. That NPV figure sure was making me nervous, its a good thing i kept onto my holdings, i think it would be hard to buy back into this stock on such low trading volumes. 

I have a feeling were going to get smashed again on Monday though - even though we all know FWL has nothing to do with US morgages - just how the market works.

On another topic, i'm still a bit baffled about the mystery PFS. I know the real numbers came out not long after, but where did the first one even come from and why were the numbers so hugely different? Its probably not important anymore but i'm still curious about it.


----------



## Pommiegranite (5 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charly100 said:


> Ahhh.. thanks YT, in the midst of the panick selling i totally forgot about that aspect. That NPV figure sure was making me nervous, *its a good thing i kept onto my holdings, i think it would be hard to buy back into this stock on such low trading volumes.*
> 
> I have a feeling were going to get smashed again on Monday though - even though we all know FWL has nothing to do with US morgages - just how the market works.
> 
> On another topic, i'm still a bit baffled about the mystery PFS. I know the real numbers came out not long after, but where did the first one even come from and why were the numbers so hugely different? Its probably not important anymore but i'm still curious about it.




Likewise, for many holders, it would be hard to sell on such low trading volumes. This has turned into a bottom drawer stock for me, which is fine by me. 

As long as the fundamentals of the project aren't affected by this US crap, we will be okay. As no cap raising is required yet, Ferrowest should be able to ride out the rough times without any effect (providing there is a recovery sometime next year)


----------



## Fool (6 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

From the new released today. I got the area from here

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Announcements/2006/Ferrowest IPO Research Note May 06.pdf


M59/634 906 hectares 100%
M59/635 774 hectares 100%
M59/636 949 hectares 100%
M59/637 200 hectares 100%


so fwl now have another ~30km², , does anyone know if there is any data for the area? Rock samples etc??

wow, I just found this on page 18p it shows the land area. check out the increase on the strike length. 
http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Ferrowest Limited Prospectus 15May2006.pdf?


----------



## charly100 (6 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Its holding strongly at 0.55. I have a feeling that if dow is up overnight it might be the bottom of this slide. If dow is down again maybe 0.50 lowest? 
Anybody with some decent TA skills have an opinion? My TA is poor to say the least.


----------



## Pommiegranite (6 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



charly100 said:


> Its holding strongly at 0.55. I have a feeling that if dow is up overnight it might be the bottom of this slide. If dow is down again maybe 0.50 lowest?
> Anybody with some decent TA skills have an opinion? My TA is poor to say the least.




IMO..and t/a's may disagree with me...but in panic situations such as what the DOW seemed to have last friday, predicting a bottom/support levels can go out of the window.

We are now in the realms of the unknown.


----------



## topstock (9 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

IMHO fundamentally fwl is still very undervalue. With an EBITDA of $A125 Million per annum at .5 Mtpa for the first 5 years, then ramping up to 1Mtpa for an EBITDA of $A169 Million per annum. 
That's $A125 Million EBITDA per annum, after deduction of operating cost!!! For a company with a current market capitalisation of approximately 50 million fully diluted. 

Even with a NPV @3% you still get $A93.5 Million

So you can see how undervalue the company is.
I challenge any1 to find a company with future earnings of $125 million per annum for the first 5 years and with a current market capitalisation of 50mil. A NPV of 1.6% is equal to its market capitalisation.

I guess once we recieve confirmation of their preferred technology for production, and it's effectiveness then once again this stock will be rerated.

This is my first post so any constructive criticism  is welcome.  Thank you


----------



## UPKA (9 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



topstock said:


> IMHO fundamentally fwl is still very undervalue. With an EBITDA of $A125 Million per annum at .5 Mtpa for the first 5 years, then ramping up to 1Mtpa for an EBITDA of $A169 Million per annum.
> That's $A125 Million EBITDA per annum, after deduction of operating cost!!! For a company with a current market capitalisation of approximately 50 million fully diluted.
> 
> Even with a NPV @3% you still get $A93.5 Million
> ...




Yes i agree, its js the timing of the PFS wasnt too wise. i think ppl will start to come back to this one once the market settles down a bit, its still a roller coaster ride atm. so more patience is needed


----------



## danewbee (13 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)

My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.

Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.


----------



## Fool (13 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)
> 
> My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.
> 
> Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.




It’s nothing to worry about man, if anything it’s a good chance to buy, it’s only because it is a speculative stock and isn’t making money that has people scared from US issues. Put it away for a few years and we’ll see when they start mining. Remember this is only 1/3 of their strike length and with the added land they now have more $$. Check the top 20 list , when that’s start changing I will be worried


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (14 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



danewbee said:


> Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)
> 
> My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.
> 
> Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.




I've actually been on holiday for the last week with my partner who just returned from overseas, 

FWL has been punished by the mkt which totally ignored IMO the PFS results, however FWL was 20c when I first discovered it so at 50c thats still 150% return, I was surprised to see it push down below 55c,

These guys have a fundamentally undervalued project, as such I will continue to hold until the fundamentals change ie mkts value the company properly etc


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (14 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

For sure I was surprised not only at the drop but at the lack of market depth there is nobody around looking to buy. They have a favourable PFS once the DES comes out in like a month or so it could prove it as a 100% cash generating operation, imagine what the companies value will be if its positive. I couldn't resist getting some oppies today looks like they are tightly held despite the lack of buyers and with an expiry of 2010 im not worried as im certain I will turn a profit on em by then .

Its crazy though just in comparison to ACS. ACS has a somewhat strong market buy depth considering and I would consider them way more spec than FWL. Perhaps its because of low volumes of investors jumping ship while the majority remains held by top 20.


----------



## sev3n (15 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The market is a bit gloomy since end of last month, got a long term view on this stock... Was really surprised that it went down to this level, especially after the announcement last week 

Is FWL gettin smashed hard because the top 20 hold most of it?


----------



## Kipp (15 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



sev3n said:


> Is FWL gettin smashed hard because the top 20 hold most of it?



I can't see the logic there.  Stocks which are tightly held (i.e. top shareholdes own >80%) are in my experience, less volatile.  The reason being that insto investors (Banks, Funds managers, Directors etc) are not prone to jumping in and out of companies all the time.  Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc.  Just my opinion.


----------



## Fool (15 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Kipp said:


> I can't see the logic there.  Stocks which are tightly held (i.e. top shareholdes own >80%) are in my experience, less volatile.  The reason being that insto investors (Banks, Funds managers, Directors etc) are not prone to jumping in and out of companies all the time.  Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc.  Just my opinion.




you are right but look at the volume it has gone done on , this is still "Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc."


----------



## UPKA (15 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> you are right but look at the volume it has gone done on , this is still "Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc."




Agreed, it has been the same case for YML, the lack of buyers n sellers will often cause large rises n falls in the SP, as it doesnt take alot of sell or buy orders to go thru the depth.


----------



## jammin (15 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



UPKA said:


> Agreed, it has been the same case for YML, the lack of buyers n sellers will often cause large rises n falls in the SP, as it doesnt take alot of sell or buy orders to go thru the depth.



And the SP has gone so much higher than the entry point of the 80% that they are not inclined to support the stock at the moment as they are still showing a profit despite the 50% fall in SP since the 25th of June. It is just the traders getting out.


----------



## pcashman (28 August 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey Guys

I'm looking for some clarification.... Just had a look at FWL options (FWLO). If they are priced at .26 with a strike price of .25 then to exercise these options and make any profit I would be looking for a share price of at least  (.26+.25) = .51 in the future.

Currently the share price is .515 with decent prospects...

Am I missing something or are these options underpriced?


----------



## Ken (7 September 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Has FWL raised capital as yet?

I know they are looking at fast tracking with capital raising ...

Has this occurred?


----------



## charly100 (10 September 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Ken said:


> Has FWL raised capital as yet?
> 
> I know they are looking at fast tracking with capital raising ...
> 
> Has this occurred?




Ken, i emailed Brett Manning and nothing has happened as of yet - they are still looking at their best options. He said there were a number of alternatives they were looking at. Unfortunately he couldn't be any more specific but the market should know as soon as they have decided. Imho they  have enough funds to last until December so I dont think there is a HUGE rush. 

(Oh by the way I assume your talking bout the funds for the DES and BFS as financing for the actual project is way down the track - which is a much better thing if you ask me given the current situation in the markets.)


----------



## Mazrox (17 September 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Yalgoo Update announcement out, including news that they have reached an agreement on an option to purchase a site to house their proposed workforce in Yalgoo

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070917/pdf/314l02vhbzpxvt.pdf

FWL has been quiet lately, and the timing of the release of the PFS was unfortunate, so it's good to know that things seem to be moving along...

Maz


----------



## kpas (17 September 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Agree, disapointing timing for the PFS.

He did make a promise that it would be out on time though and he more or less delivered it.

Given the state of the market it would have been nice to hold it off until the market stablised & there was better sentiment within investors.


----------



## kpas (1 October 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Things have moved up a bit lately in terms of SP.

Very thin volume available on both sell sides for FWL and FWLO, I expect this stock to break hard soon just purely because there is nothing available to buy.

Definitely one to watch.


----------



## michael_selway (1 October 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.
> 
> This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate *$75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m *
> 
> ...




Pretty much spot on dude, looking at teh past few months

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 -- -- -- 
EPS -2.0 -- -- -- 
DPS 0.0 -- -- -- 

Crazy stuff

thx

MS


----------



## kpas (11 October 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

So what is next for this stock?

I note it's edging upwards on low volume, just like it edges downwards on low volume 

None the less, positive movement is a good thing.


----------



## Mazrox (17 October 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Announcement out - Good news for FWL: 

Proof of Concept test work successfully completed. ITmk3 ®process suitable for Yogi iron ore concentrate and Fastmet/Fastmelt ®process also suitable

Having a choice of technologies augurs well. All looking very promising...

Maz


----------



## countryboy (26 October 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

MOU for port access now in place,,,anyone out there got a company with a one project focus. i'm interested in where the share price could go?


----------



## Fool (2 November 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

new is out after market close, looks like someone thinks FWL is a good buy at 55cent. will be an interesting day tomorrow.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (2 November 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Fool said:


> new is out after market close, looks like someone thinks FWL is a good buy at 55cent. will be an interesting day tomorrow.




After 75c failed as support I scrubbed it out and redrew support at 55c

Now they have done the placement at 55c 

I expect this to now to be an even stronger support level

Also I forgot how quickly and hard it ran after I picked it (Blue Circle), 20c to 90c in like a 2 weeks


----------



## CanOz (2 November 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWIW i've got it as .53 with fibb...call it .55

I don't hold i just thought it was this one that came up on a scan, but no...here my chart.

Cheers,


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (19 November 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Ltd*



YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Re financing, look at how many Chinese and Japanese steel firms are fudning projects AXO, MIS, MGX, TFE, AGO, CFE, ARH, GRR, IDO, then also realise the fact that Japans huge Kobe steel has already asked for sample ore from FWL, if the PFS stacks up it'll only be a matter of time




Well I knew it was only a matter of time before FWL got backing from a steel firm and it looks like its a Korean Steel Firm, hmmm remember those Murchison links via Paul Kopetchka, they're steel firm is also Korean (POSCO) coincidence? 

See todays ann for full details


----------



## serendip (19 November 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Nice going, YT.  You have called it well.

FWL is just striding ahead, reaching one milestone after another.  Proven reserves, easy transport to the coast, port facilities, a process proven with their ore, robust economics, and now a market for half their production.

What's not to like?

Cheers,  Serendip


----------



## charly100 (28 November 2007)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Just reading through the presentations from the AGM. I didn't realise they were talking with so many parties about an offtake agreement - i thought it was just a few...

"• Discussions held with groups from:
South Korea, Japan, China, Malaysia, India, Middle East, USA"

Did anybody here actually make it to the AGM, if so what were some of the questions asked?


----------



## Bushman (24 January 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWL languishing at 30 cps. This is down where it was 6 months ago before the surge up to the 80's. 

Placement was at 55 cps. 

Fundamentals have not changed except one thing - the iron ore bull is taking a breather given global equity market capitulation. Interesting to see how the IO speccy's faired - they were smashed. Strange market this one - one day it is IO price rises, the next bond insurerers collapsing hence the end of the financial world as we know it. 

PS: I do not hold. Missed the great run up and the rapid leg down. Whoever sold at the top, good stuff.


----------



## Mazrox (8 March 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

G'day all

Newsletter released yesterday was a good layman's summary of what FWL are trying to achieve. The distinction between FWL and "normal" iron ore companies is significant.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080307/pdf/00820741.pdf

Even with the new shares issued in Dec, Mkt Cap is still incredibly low. I thought it would be interesting to compare the to 20 shareholders today to the list YT posted back in June 2007. The vast majority seem to be in this for the long haul. Including the Zuks and Kopeitka connections. While slightly lower at 66%, top 20 shareholders are still holding 2/3 of the company. 




I traded FWL and made a bit of pocket money when it ran in June 07, however I still hold long term as I think the prospects are good and the management seem to be moving ahead with the project in a timely manner.

Perhaps a good opportunity at current levels for long-termers to have another look at FWL? You'd need to be prepared to have it sit in a bottom drawer for a couple of years though. It's close to being at the price level it was when YT first brought it to our attention...

Maz


----------



## charly100 (17 March 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I sense this stock is going to make a good move up soon. It's well and truly bottomed at .25 almost near issue price which is well below its fair value considering all the huge progress the company has made. The sell side is really starting to dry up and the depth in the buys is thickening. 

Just now i'm looking at 17 buyers for 262,592 units and 8 sellers for 98,831 units. IMO people are just beginning to realise how undervalued this is.


----------



## questionall_42 (7 April 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

very little action in the last month, hovering around 25c which was its issue price; no selling depth, no news, nothing.  But iron ore could be flavour of next month given BHP/RIOs negotiations - is ferrowest a sleeping giant waiting to explode?


----------



## countryboy (7 April 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Building a mine is a slow long process...especially when the budget is tight. We all hold this with the view that the project has legs. Continued drilling will sure up resource but the hard part is yet to begin...getting the capital

I dont think much will happen with this stock in the next 6 months..and realy dont mind.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (7 April 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

The company have acheived alot, they have firmed up an offtake partner (and possible source of finance) and have continued to expand their target, 

They have completed a PFS and have also organised a finance draw down equity raising facility (ingenious if you ask me) and have also managed to place unsecured convertible notes

The directors are in it for the long term as evidenced by them not selling any shares (buying if anything)

And Merchant Pig Iron continues to strengthen,

Glad I've got some bottom drawed,  I hope


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## kanshi (10 April 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWL probaby joined with BTV soon?

BTV's Fe deposits occur halfway Yolgy to Geraldtone.

And BTV has some Cash.


kanshi


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## countryboy (15 May 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWL have rumbled along in the last fortnight. Touched 39c I think today up 18%. Last few days have the share price up from mid 20s to high 30s. Announcement due out soonish with a resource upgrade.


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## EyeOverIt (16 May 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

recent volumes is the pointer with this stock. historically very few shares traded and tightly held. recent week or so there has been good volume. not day trading but a solid position by someone or perhaps a few heavy hitters. there might not be any announcement for weeks going on response to speeding ticket but someone does not mind and is happy to soak up a position. this bodes well for this steady performer.

I hold fwl - DYOR


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## Bushman (8 July 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWL has found some DSO at Yogi. See the ASX announcement today. 

That could re-risk the development in the shorter term if they can get the DSO operation up and running quickly. Would the be a nice mix with the pig iron production facility.  

Interesting development.


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## stefoid (8 July 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



Bushman said:


> FWL has found some DSO at Yogi. See the ASX announcement today.
> 
> That could re-risk the development in the shorter term if they can get the DSO operation up and running quickly. Would the be a nice mix with the pig iron production facility.
> 
> Interesting development.




yeah, I held last year, and now Im back in for a few options with this recent announcement.  seems like they are tying up finances over the next couple of months with offtake partners, and now maybe a few megatons of DSO to help the cashflow.


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## charly100 (9 July 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

To me the big news in this announcement is the fact they are going to be doubling the initial production from 0.5M to 1M despite the fact that it means the  capital cost will increase to 700M. It shows they are pretty certain they can get the capital needed even in this tight market.....if they weren't sure they wouldn't be taking that bold risk. The ability to raise capital has always been a major criticism of this stock. 

Notice how they made the connection in the announcement that the reason they were stepping up initial production was because of interest from the parties they're negotiating with....they sound pretty keen to me. 
The Haematite find is the icing on the cake for this stock too.

I cant understand though how this stock is receiving no attention from the market. In my opinion this is grossly undervalued....


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## countryboy (10 July 2008)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I think nearly 100% of the market is "undervalued" if you ask holders. There are producing miners under 20c...FWL will have its day we just have to wait for the right announcement and the market to be shining.

DSO today was "icing on the cake"!


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## kpas (27 April 2009)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Almost a year since someone posted here.

Has everyone sold out of FWL or are there still some holders?


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## Mazrox (13 November 2009)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I still have some FWL in the bottom drawer.

And looks like there is some news coming, hope it's good! 

The company have been steadily moving along with the project, and have been pretty good and making timely announcements and keeping to the schedule they proposed.

Given how far into the project they are, and how tightly it's held (top 20 still hold 63%), you'd think good news could re-ignite interest in this one.

Anyone else still with an interest in this?


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## JimBob (14 November 2009)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Ive got a small a which ive held for a while.  Im interested to see what the drilling results are as I dont think the market has given too much value to the Western Hematite Project so far.  Im wondering if they are also going to announce a JV to provide funding for further exploration now that results have come back.  They have done well to survive the past 12 months with limited dilution.


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## countryboy (18 November 2009)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

fwl has been posturing for sometime about aJV or capital from an asian source to develop thisw building resource. 

the announcement says this will be in relationship to resource exploration.
Given the time extension asked to put this to the market and the $$ they have in kitty i'm anticipating  a substantial find closely followed by a capital raising

I know this is not a rocket science conclusion to draw but they are starting to move to that stage

or the photocopier broke down and they needed more time!


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## countryboy (23 November 2009)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

well i might just keep my conclusions to myself.

the quality of ore was well not that flash
The JV was a surprise

I think FWL has plenty of pig iron feed to get on with the mine development rather than chase new ore


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## enigmatic (14 December 2009)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Just reading the latest announcement concerning the project update and i noticed 2 things that interested me.

1) 5million shares at 20cents which at the time of the announcement was a 38% premium to there price now still 17.6%

2) $14million in exploration and development funding for 50% interest 

With the current market cap of 13mil possibility of a $15mil boost in cash in near term, the 1.5mtpa pig iron project is looking more possible.


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## enigmatic (14 January 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Another positive announcement concerning Commercial Scale ITMk3 Production.

*Commercial Scale ITMk3 Production Starts Successfully In USA*

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01029123

Another Iron Ore Junior under the radar.. so many arround

DYOR


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## JimBob (14 January 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Another tick in the box on the long road towards getting their project off the ground.

There are a few things to look forward to in the near future:

- Further exploration drilling on the Western Haemetite project
- Approval from the FIRB regarding the funding from Global Minmetal Corp
- Resource increase of the Yalgoo Iron resource
- Further discussions on JV partners for the Yalgoo Iron Project.


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## Apples (31 March 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I notice this stock is an old favourite of the forum but has only had very little coverage lately.  I though the 390% resource upgrade yesterday to half a billion tonnes in JORC inferred resource at Yogi might get a few chins wagging.  The proposed production is only 1000000 tonnes a year - so they have enough to go for about 500 years.  All this with a market cap of roughly $11M at yesterday's close.  Nice.


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## enigmatic (31 March 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hey Apples, yeah been following this one for a while thought to myself i wouldn't mention the announcement as most of my comments on a few specy iron ore have been ignored  although all have gone up well..

concerning the 500years..
i suggest you look a little further in detail. there resource may be 552M tonnes however that is at a grade of 27.2%

And they are looking at selling pig iron which is 96% Fe 
obviously they should be able to get a max of 156M tonnes at that grade this is also unlikely. Something to note though is they mention having the ability to ramp to 2mtpa with the resource upgrade. 

current price of US$480/t that is a revenue of at least US$960mil and seeing how iron ore contract prices just doubled the skies the limit for this little specy 

Only problem  Getting it off the ground.


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## countryboy (31 March 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

and getting it off the ground will be the problem given current market tightness with capital. lot of talk re being in discussions etc
this last announcement may be enough to flush out some much needed capital to progress this project.

 i missed the SP surge from 10 to 22 c but was only a handful of punters. only $200,00 grand plus in total traded


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## YELNATS (15 April 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

I hold the options FWLO acquired in 2007 at an average price if 42c. These expire on 01/06/2010 and the exercise price is 25c.

The last price of FWL was 14.5c. 

Looks like I'm due to take a hit on these and let them expire, unless FWL does something dramatic in the next month and a half.

There are 27 million of these options which if all option holders think like me means they will miss out on about $6.75 million.

Any advice from any followers of FWL?


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## stargazer (15 April 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Hi all

Like many of these stocks that had stellar movers are around these levels and lower eg cul to name one.

Given this was  a good buy at 20c must be a very good buy at 14.5c.  Has much changed since the analysis of YT.

YT you still got these in your bottom draw or did you get out when the GFC unfolded.  Whats yout take on this and others like Cul do you think much has changed in terms of their progress.  Cul is around 4.5c 

Cheers
SG


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## JimBob (15 April 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

Like a lot of mining companies, FWL has the resource but no funds to advance their project.  Getting this off the ground is totally dependent on outside finance.  The latest quarterly says discussions with several parties are at an advanced stage which will provide funding for the project.    The only hope for option holders is a JV being finalised before the expire date.  That is about the only thing that will give the share price a boost at the moment IMO.


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## countryboy (15 April 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

there are a heap of companies in this predicament. .. not just mining companies but property trusts oil explores etc waiting for capital to free up so they can advance their projects. One thing in favour of miners v oilers etc is the jorc code places a level of confidence under investors because you know they have a standard to achieve.

it is getting tight for FWL. Recent days have seen a small rise in volume and price. maybe something is about to happen


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## JimBob (19 April 2010)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*



YELNATS said:


> I hold the options FWLO acquired in 2007 at an average price if 42c. These expire on 01/06/2010 and the exercise price is 25c.
> 
> The last price of FWL was 14.5c.
> 
> ...




Announcement out today regarding the AGM.  They are planning to issue new options to existing options holders on a one for one basis at a price of 0.5c each.  New expiry date is 28 June 2012.  At least its not a total write off for option holders, i take this as saying that no news is expected before the June 1 expiry date.


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## birdmanz (6 June 2011)

*Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited*

FWL in trading halt.....looks like a funding deal has been struck. Hope its a beauty 

29/6/2007
FIRST RESOURCE ESTIMATE ? YALGOO IRON PROJECT
- 112.5 million tonnes at 25.3% total Fe estimated mineral resource
- Resource underpins iron requirements for 20+ project life
- Resource estimate completed for 10km of 27km strike at Yogi deposit

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Announcements/2007/ASX Announcement - Resource Estimate 29Jun07.pdf

The SP spiked to 93.5c in June 2007 following just the first Resource estimate 112.5mt, shares on offer at the time 54mil. The JORC is now 572mt (target between 800-1200mt) , while shares & options are approx 125mil.
Since the spike in 2007 the share price suffered due to both uncertainty of project funding & the GFC. Hopefully the announement will remove the uncertainty around funding & given the spike in 2007, the JORC increasy by 4.5 times and still only 125mil shares on issue (that is including options) we should see >$1 sp IMO


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## System (16 December 2015)

On December 16th, 2015, Ferrowest Limited (FWL) changed its name and ASX code to Living Cities Development Group Limited (LCG).


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## System (7 August 2017)

On August 7th, 2017, Living Cities Development Group Limited (LCG) changed its name and ASX code to Birrabong Corporation Limited (BIR).


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## System (20 June 2018)

On June 20th, 2018, Birrabong Corporation Limited changed its name to BIR Financial Limited.


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## greggles (17 June 2021)

What's going on with BIR?












500% share price gain since last Tuesday and still no news. Hmmmm....


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## Stockbailx (17 June 2021)

Market Update BIR Limited 
(“BIR”) announces that that former Pulse Markets Chief Executive Officer Mr Andrew Braund has commenced  a  proceeding in  the  District  Court  of  NSW (“Claim”)against  BIR  as second defendant and its 100% owned subsidiary Pulse Markets Pty Limited (“Pulse”) as first defendant alleging wrongful termination in December 2019. The Claim is denied by Pulse and BIR with defences to that effect, filed. BIR  has lodged a  cross  claim  in  the  District  Court of  NSW against Mr Braund seeking compensation for an alleged  breach  of  the  Share  Sale Agreement entered  into  between  Mr Braund as vendor of Pulse and BIR as purchaser of Pulse in 2018


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