# PCG - PCH Group



## The Barbarian Investor (16 March 2005)

Sold out of PCG at 0.55 after buying in at 0.44 Av, however this stock (one of my stockpicking comp entries a while back) has a habit of rising and falling as it continues its upward climb.

I believe in the stock and and my Exit strategy trigger kicked in giving me about a 22% + return which i'm happy with.

i'm alos watching this stock if it falls again for another entry point..

any thoughts on this strategy?


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## tech/a (16 March 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

TBI

Generally my thoughts are that traders exit far to early in most cases.

Looking at the chart its risen consistantly from around 35c and its not showing ANY sign of weakness yet.

Fear of Loss seems to be your reason for exit.

Over the years the change I notice as being the most influential to traders in their trading profit is,developing the ability to

*HOLD WINNING TRADES*

Jumping in and out attempting to pick perfect timing is futile youll find.
Do you know your average return to risk over a year?


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## TjamesX (16 March 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

I bought this one at 37c for fundamental reasons - did not know much about TA then, or particularly Tech/A's breakout analysis and in hindsight this was a perfect time technically to purchase (Luck was with me!!!)

I have not added to portfolio as initial purchase was reasonably large - but I will not be looking to sell any soon.

PCG's half year report was very impressive, and they have been able to return good money from their capital. The only thing that would 'hold' it back is the uncertainty about future contracts for their scaffolding (PCG's main revenue stream is from hiring scaffolding to construction and mining companies)

However I'm willing to make an assumption that if future capacity is not fully contracted yet - that it will be. The resource boom is here, and resource companies are looking to expand - and generally to do that you need infrastructure (re scaffolding)

Note: PCG also has significant revenue streams from offshore, and so are not completely tied to Australian conditions


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## TjamesX (16 March 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Longer chart of PCG;


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## The Barbarian Investor (17 March 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

I'd set an exit point and didn't think it would breach 0.60c for a long time.....it hit 0.61c today   Dohhh..

Techa
So you think the idea of adjusting your stop losses up (profit stops) as your stock price rises and thereby holding onto your winners is the way to go?

_Generally my thoughts are that traders exit far to early in most cases._
??? You've said before to have an Exit strategy, in my case for this share i had set it upon purchasing; in hindsight then, what would be the better move?

Forum
PCG seems to regularly rise and fall on it's upward trend-is this also something to be taken advantage of..?


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## Fleeta (17 March 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Spot on Tech/a - I jumped on this at 28c and again at 34c and it makes up a reasonably high % of my portfolio - if you believe in the stock, stick with it!!

I reckon it could be a dollar by the end of the year, given its forecast earnings and dividends.

Who cares if it goes up and down a bit - the long term trend with this one is up, its not about timing the market, but time in the market, that will let you rake in the $$. After I bought the second time at 34c, it fell back to 30c - but it doesn't matter cos its now 59c. So buy in at 59c - it may fall back to 50c, but why worry if it hits a dollar at the end of the year.

Just a thought, I guess you can magnify your profits by timing it right, personally I don't think its worth the worry.


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## The Barbarian Investor (18 March 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Hi Feeta,

What put you onto the stock in the firstplace?

I started looking at it at around 43c and was looking at stocks associated with all the work happening up north of WA, really didn't think it would go beyond 0.60for a while though (just guessing here though) should've just let my profits run and increase my stop losses up in hindsight...

0.63c today

Oh well it's all a learning curve


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## TjamesX (7 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

PCG was hammered a bit last week with the market sell off, but not as bad as some other small caps.

Currently around 53-54 cents and with all my spare cash at the moment am considering adding to my already reasonable holding. No news has changed - I still very much like this fundamentally.

Have a look at its half year report

TJ


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## TjamesX (7 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Well what a missed opportunity.......

Just as I was logging onto HSBC to have a look at buy sells and possibly entering - I can't log on, cause I'm working on a linux machine at the moment and the browser isn't supported. Then I watch on stockness monster as the price went from 52 to 43 in 1 minute, triggered by a whole lot of cascading stop losses - only to see the price trade back up to 53 within another 3 minutes.

Im not a day trader, but I'm assuming these opportunities don't happen too often - and I'm sure I wouldn't have actually picked them up at the low price. Interestingly PCG has been stop lossed down very quickly twice in the last couple of weeks....mmmmm I didn't realise many traders would be trading this one.

Waiting and watching 

TJ


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## Fleeta (7 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

I would have loved to have bought in at 43c...this is one stock with sound fundamentals and long term stability. Check out its order book, very strong...I think undervalued as will yield at least 6% fully franked.

OMG - I sound like Chicken! Stop it Fleeta.


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## el_ninj0 (7 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> I would have loved to have bought in at 43c...this is one stock with sound fundamentals and long term stability. Check out its order book, very strong...I think undervalued as will yield at least 6% fully franked.
> 
> OMG - I sound like Chicken! Stop it Fleeta.




From the chart, it looks like its peaked and is overvalued currently. I think mabey 43-45c is the correct evaluation for this stock, according to a charter.


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## The Barbarian Investor (10 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> I would have loved to have bought in at 43c...this is one stock with sound fundamentals and long term stability. Check out its order book, very strong...I think undervalued as will yield at least 6% fully franked.
> 
> OMG - I sound like Chicken! Stop it Fleeta.




 

Agree it's a good share..kicking myself for exiting when i thought it had peaked; but will it really move beyond the .60c mark in the near future??


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## GreatPig (10 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Barbarian Investor,

I wouldn't bang my head against that brick wall too hard if I were you . While in general I agree with Tech, about not selling while there's no sign of weakness, in this case if you'd done that I think you would have been very lucky to get out before it got back to 55 cents anyway.

Regarding its expected price around now from a charting point of view, the base trend I have would indicate a minimum of about 45 cents, but then it's mostly been trading 5 cents or more above the base trend. Thus I'd say around 50 cents would be a comfortable current value if the current trend is going to continue.

Which of course is just my opinion and not any sort of advice, etc. etc. etc.

Cheers,
GP


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## ghotib (10 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Hi GP, 

Out of curiosity, why do you draw the trend lines as you do, especially the lower one? 

Thanks,

Ghoti


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## GreatPig (10 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*



			
				ghotib said:
			
		

> Out of curiosity, why do you draw the trend lines as you do, especially the lower one?



Well it's certainly not an exact science . I just look at what seems to form a trend and draw a line along the bottom of it.

Sometimes I let it cut through a small dip in prices if it otherwise fits better. That may not be the textbook way to do it, but to me, a trendline should just be parallel to the main direction of the trend and as close to the bottom of it as possible. I just treat such short price dips as aberrations rather than characteristic of the trend.

In the PCG one below, I've been using the lower purple line (although I don't have any of the stock), but the blue one could potentially be considered better. But given the nature of the prices, with the big bulge in late 2003 - early 2004, there's no well-defined trend direction, so I think any line roughly like I have them is as good an approximation as you can ask for.

Which line is best for you probably depends on exactly what you're using it for. If you want it as a sell signal, then the higher one might be better. For me, I initially use it to help with buy indications for investing, trying to wait for the price to be near that line when I buy (if I'm buying into established trends). I also use it for sell indications with investment stocks, but other factors come into that as well.

OTOH, my mechanical system doesn't use trend lines at all.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (10 April 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

As a comparison, the best trades for that same period indicated by my mechanical system are shown below. The solid blue and orange lines show the periods when the stock would be held (in this case they are not trailing stop lines, as these particular trades are based on EMA crossovers only).

These plots assume buying in where indicated. If buying in at later times, other sell conditions may be better.

As can be seen at the top of the plot, the gain during that period using these trades (and based on a sale at the last closing price) would be 456.32%. That's for just over 3 years.

Of course this is all hindsight best trading. Not so easy guessing the future. 

Cheers,
GP


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## TjamesX (12 May 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

This is one of the 'more risky' holdings I have - but they have been around a while and does make a profit 

Fundamentally I do like the company and the industry they're in. Full year results in a few months time will be the test of how well it is going..... BUT

Recently the SP has been nocked around along with a lot of the other small caps - as can be seen in the chart below. I took the opportunity to add to holding at 52c a week or so ago (APP is 43) - which turned out to be a bit premature. There were two stop loss sell downs in the last month (big lines heading south) in the month of 'jitters'. But in general the SP was moved high on high volume and recently has been down on lighter volume.

I have seen some funny things going on with market depth and buy/sells over the last few days, but recently some buyers seem to be surfacing from what was a pretty barron buy side.... where it goes now - no one knows.

Two other factors;
 - Investment Funds have been purchasing (last month)
 - and one director sold a large holding.... so they sort of cancel each other out in a weird sort of way 

One to add to the watchlist

TJ


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## markrmau (12 May 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> As a comparison, the best trades for that same period indicated by my mechanical system are shown below. The solid blue and orange lines show the periods when the stock would be held (in this case they are not trailing stop lines, as these particular trades are based on EMA crossovers only).
> GP




Hi GP,

Do you mind telling us what system you use - I understand it is EMA crossovers? What are the EMA parameters? Do you have stats such as winning / losing trades and profitability? Thanks, Mark.


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## GreatPig (12 May 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Do you mind telling us what system you use



My mechanical system is one I wrote myself in an AmiBroker plugin.




> I understand it is EMA crossovers? What are the EMA parameters?



It primarily uses EMA crossovers, ATR stops, and maximum price drop stops, although not always in the normal fashion. It often uses a stop in combination with an EMA, where the stop is ignored until the EMA has negative slope (this helps filter out spikes in noisy stocks).

However, it's designed primarily for up-trending stocks. It doesn't work very well with stocks that fall sharply.

There are no fixed parameters. I optimize them for each individual stock. There's an optimization function built into the plugin, and I have an AmiBroker script that calls the optimizer when I want to run it. It can optimize either a single stock or a whole watchlist at a time (my stock universe is kept in a watchlist) - although doing the whole universe takes over 24 hours, even on a fast P4. All the parameters are then stored in one big file, which is accessed by the plugin when I want to display back-test charts based on those parameters. Also, if I want to manually optimize a stock for a particular situation, I can run the optimizer over just one section of a stock chart, where it will be optimized for just that date range. This can be useful where say recent movement patterns of a stock are somewhat different to past movement patterns.

I also have RSI, PSAR, and Guppy Count-Back built into the plugin. I can manually look at things using them, but don't use them in the automatic optimization process.




> Do you have stats such as winning / losing trades and profitability?



The back-test chart shows the profitability using the set parameters over the historic data, but not the ratio of wins to losses (although I could easily get that information too if I wanted it). I can also weight it in favour of fewer total transactions, as sometimes the most profitable figure comes from an excessive number of transactions (but brokerage is allowed for in the profitability calculation).

A few example charts. Firstly, BSL using a combination of ATR stop and EMA crossovers. A nice tidy case due to the low volatility.

Secondly, MGX using an ATR stop controlled by an EMA. A few penetrations of the stop line don't generate sells as the EMA (green line) still has positive slope. At the actual sell point the EMA still has positive slope, but the drop exceeded the maximum allowed price fall. Before the main up-trend, a few very short, unprofitable trades can be seen.

Finally, two charts of FCN showing the same parameters, but the second only including the relatively flat section in the middle. While the whole chart shows a gain of about 1500%, the flatter section alone still manages about 90%.

These are only a few stocks with reasonable gains. Of course there are other stocks where even optimized parameters produce poor returns, since they aren't suited to the use of EMAs (particularly stocks that change price very quickly).

So that's basically how my system works. Not a very quantitative description, I know, but then all parameters are calculated by the software, so I can't give any general figures.

Cheers,
GP


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## TjamesX (13 May 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Todays announcement shows Hunter Hall (fund) has increased their holdings by about 1.5 mill shares ($700k) since 20th of April.

Which means they must have been just about the only significant buyer over the last few weeks drip feeding sellers as the price has slowly come down????

TJ


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## TjamesX (18 May 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Chart looks a little nicer now...

Moving up on very small volume. CBA announced today purchase of over 1mill shares over the last three months. Profit guidance released day before indicated no real change and expected to be inline with first half.

I am looking to hold at least until full year results. May take some profits if it reaches previous high before results......

Note: this is probably not a traders stock becuase of very low liquidity. Research the company....

TJ


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## TjamesX (17 June 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Took some profits selling over 1/3 of holding at .605

No change in fundamentals and technicals look good

Only reason is related to reducing risk in portfolio (I was too overweight in this share) and it is getting close to new highs. Seeing how it performs if the overall market takes a bit of a hit - may add if there is a significant pull back. May have risen a bit quick of late??? we'll see.....


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## TjamesX (3 August 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

An attempt at some TA   

I don't know what these are called triangle something.... Either way it is coming up to decision time for PCG, which way will it go?? Reporting date is coming soon (last year was 27th Aug), I am tipping a solid result, why? becuase PCG leases scaffolding to mining/resource companies and residential construction (mainly perth resi market) - hopefully they have been able to take advantage of market conditions...

I still hold reasonable amount - may even consider adding on anticipation of a good result, but as always..... do your own research

TJ


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## TjamesX (3 August 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Well it looks like the market read my post and are buying up    

Currently up 6% today to 0.62, and my pink line (chart above) has been breached   obviously where it closes is important, from there price will move on speculation of whats in the final report......  I won't annoy anyone with anymore posts on this one until report day  : 

TJ


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## TjamesX (2 September 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Annual report released today...  

Revenue up 68%, Profit up, and share price up 4.5% to 68c (price has taken a fair run up prior to report). The price did reach a top of 70c (not shown on chart which shows yesterdays close). My 12 months will be up on this one in 2 weeks, where it will be decision time - however I am definitly considering this one to be a long term holder. I think their fundamental outlook is still fantastic... their revenues are pretty much dictated by cash and expansion of world resource companies.....  

cheers to any holders out there... I'd like to know your opinions


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## farmboy (2 September 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

I missed references to this stock on the forum until today. 

I took a bite when it was 54 cents and am happy to hold on after today's report - in fact I have topped-up.

I like what I consider to be the sound basics of the company plus the fact that it deals with the construction industry as well as resource extraction. 

Then again, "support" companies like this are usually the first to feel any pinch when things go bad, but there is always some risk.


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## Fleeta (4 September 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Loved the result, was hoping for a higher dividend, but I think the low payout ratio won't continue in the coming years...a long term hold for me...I've bought this 3 times over the past 2 years at an average price of 34c, so loving it.

With its long term contracts and the continual expansion of the resources industry - and these guys are cashed up - I can't see the share price falling.


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## TjamesX (7 December 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Bought some more today at 61c (medium term hold - could be longer)

Fundamentally; currently trading at PE < 10, 61c is below recent placement(which was oversubscribed at 62c)

Technically - see my attempts below  :


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## Fleeta (8 December 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Good timing TJ - up to 64c today! I wasn't buying any more (bought the most I could get in the rights issue - can't believe how heavily it was scaled back!) and certainly not looking to sell...i'm hoping a run up to 80c is coming...soon I hope.


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## TjamesX (15 December 2005)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Yep, happy with the timing on that one!! Buyers currently lining up at 65.5c and sellers are disappearing...

I've seen some very large crossed trades over the last few days - someone selling a lot to someone else buying a lot. A reasonable probability that there has been substantial holder buying/selling... may see some notices in the future.


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## TjamesX (4 January 2006)

*Re: PCG -Strategy?*

Another cheerful PCG update...   

Stock broken new highs, buyers currently lining up at 0.76 on large volume!!! PCG got a mention in the online version of smh yesterday, a fund manager dropped its name for propects in 2006. Personally the growth in SP is a bit quick for me, I would expect it to consolidate reasonably soon... still awaiting some change in substantial holder notices.

TJ


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## TjamesX (30 January 2006)

Sold part holding today @ 80c - profit taking & still had some that had held for 12 month period. Still have quite a few sitting there (bottom draw), if the SP moves down again I will top up.

Fundamentals still look fantastic

TJ


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## Fleeta (17 February 2006)

New high yesterday TJ - hope you are still into this one.

Got above 80c as predicted by me in earlier posts. Now what do I do...sit on it?

Looks like accounting has been conservative when they had a tax provision of $1.3m that was not required! Wonder if there is any other cream sitting in their balance sheet. In any case, I think I will hold provided that the contract pipeline continues. Only danger is that the resources market drops off and the contracts dry up, hopefully it keeps pushing to new highs. I think I will sell at a dollar and set stop loss at 70c. Any thoughts?


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## TjamesX (28 February 2006)

Fleeta said:
			
		

> New high yesterday TJ - hope you are still into this one.
> 
> Got above 80c as predicted by me in earlier posts. Now what do I do...sit on it?




Still happily holding, and buyers are lining up @ 88 cents as I write.

There is obviuously some anticipation leading up to half yearly report. They should be releasing this in the next week or so.

From a fundamental perspective I am thinking it will be a pretty good result. Perth has been going nuts in both residential construction and mining over the last 12 months - PCH has been in the perfect position to take advantage of this.

Last years 12 month EPS was 6.9 cents I would expect improvement from this given industry conditions. I think 12 months I would be looking for EPS of 9-10 cents, this would give us a PE of < 10 at the current share price. So to be inline with this, hopefully the half yearly report will have EPS > 4 cents, although this figure may be hampered slightly by the recent share placement.

From where I sit, if it does come in with these results you would be hard pressed to find better value in the market.... Just depends how long you think mining companies will be out there upgrading projects and mine development - I think for a long while yet.

TJ


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## TjamesX (28 February 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> There is obviuously some anticipation leading up to half yearly report. They should be releasing this in the next week or so.
> 
> From a fundamental perspective I am thinking it will be a pretty good result. Perth has been going nuts in both residential construction and mining over the last 12 months - PCH has been in the perfect position to take advantage of this.




Sorry Guys - didn't give you enough time to digest, half yearly report has been released!!!!

Hope you held on fleeta  : 

Just a few highlights;

- revenue up 70%
- profit up 121%
- announced maiden interium div of 0.75c
- basic EPS of 7.1 cents for the half!! (way above what I was expecting)

Note that half yearly EPS is greater than for the entire previous year!! It should be noted that this has been benefited by some accounting changes (income tax benefits and provisions) these will not be repreated to the same extent in future reports. However the change in income tax assesment is material and will be beneficial to ongoing income.

I would expect 2nd half EPS to be below 7.1 cents due to one off benefits not occuring and some contracts coming off stream in early 2006. A conservative 4 cents in the 2nd half will give us 11 cents for the year which essentially means any price less than $1.10 will be trading below a PE of 10. 

Net Profit for the half year of $11.4 million was well above analysts expectations. Pattersons had a buy recommnedation assuming net profit for the 06 year to be forecast at $11.4mill, PCH have achieved this profit in the first half.

Market reaction;

Share price up 13% to 97 cents
Sell side depth is barron to say the least

 
TJ


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## ghotib (28 February 2006)

Enjoy the moment TJ!

I bought in at 62.5 in October last year because I like the business. No plans to sell.

Ghoti


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## Fleeta (28 February 2006)

Loving life with this one...my average buy price is 40.4c, so i'm 137% up. Damn, I am spewing that the rights issue I just got in at 67c was scaled back!!

Baglimit - didn't even need you on this one...found it all by myself!

The numbers are certainly very impressive and you would think that the downside risk is minimal in the short-term.


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## michael_selway (28 February 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> Sorry Guys - didn't give you enough time to digest, half yearly report has been released!!!!
> 
> Hope you held on fleeta  :
> 
> ...




yes 11c EPS for 2006, what about forecast for 2007 and 2008 now?

thx

MS


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## TjamesX (28 March 2006)

Come off its highs of late...

Thinking of adding again, medium to short term


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## TjamesX (19 April 2006)

Increased holding today - setting up for above $1 soon.

Fundamentals still fantastic (still trading well below PE 10x on forecast 06 earnings)

TJ


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## michael_selway (19 April 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> Increased holding today - setting up for above $1 soon.
> 
> Fundamentals still fantastic (still trading well below PE 10x on forecast 06 earnings)
> 
> TJ




its got low PEs, although forecast growth is limited 10%pa next few yrs it appears, divi also low

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 6.3 10.1 11.1 12.5 
DPS 1.2 1.5 2.0 3.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 10.1 9.2 60.3% 
Year Ending 30-06-07 11.1 8.4 9.9% 

I think i read soemwhere, thats theres a risk inherent with thsi company, thus the low PE atm, forgot what it was now

thx

MS


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## TjamesX (24 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> its got low PEs, although forecast growth is limited 10%pa next few yrs it appears, divi also low
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...




Depends what you think forecast growth will be??

If you look at their EPS growth over the last five years, it has been very strong. Obviously some analysts expect it to flatten. But from the forecasts you've put up - to me it looks like they haven't really looked at what is going on.

They forecast 10.1c EPS for 06. The first half result has already come in at 7.1c. So they think 3.1c for the second half? I realise there are some hiring contracts coming to an end in 06 that may affect this.... but, that seems very conservative. When in doubt, go behind the numbers and look at how the business makes money....

PCG lends scaffolding mainly to local and overseas resource companies - so their potential growth is very much linked to expansion and exploration projects. 

Will they be able to continue writing contracts?

Depends if you think resources companies will stop expanding and exploring....

TJ


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## TjamesX (2 May 2006)

Added again today at 86c

PCH released broker update that says 2nd half won't be as good as first... we knew that. I'm still expecting 4c eps for the second half.

So at 86c its trading at 7.5x forecast 06 earnings. Should they be trading at such a low PE? have a look at their earnings growth for the last 5 years and make up your own mind???

Market is a funny bugger sometimes - the stock opened at 90c and then traded down to 80c on a volume of about $25k, so thats the price it has to start moving from again - and its been steady as she goes up since.

Do your own research

TJ


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## michael_selway (2 May 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> Added again today at 86c
> 
> PCH released broker update that says 2nd half won't be as good as first... we knew that. I'm still expecting 4c eps for the second half.
> 
> ...




Hi dude, not EPS growth in the last 5 yrs but EPS growth forecast in the next few yrs, each is only 10% pa atm (not updated)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 6.3 10.1 11.1 12.5 
DPS 1.2 1.5 2.0 3.0 

http://www1.pchgroup.com.au/uploads/pdfs/Broker Update - May 2006 W.pdf

See the thing is, they say "2nd half won't be as good as first", so probabality wise, its a safe bet that the following half will be not be as good as well? It doesnt mean it wont be, in fact it could do much better and suprise the market. However the key is probablity (risk)

thx

MS


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## TjamesX (2 May 2006)

> Hi dude, not EPS growth in the last 5 yrs but EPS growth forecast in the next few yrs, each is only 10% pa atm (not updated)




Personally I would think a company trading at F06 PE of 7.5x and expected to grow at 10% pa would represent tremendous value. But then again some people prefer to own stocks with no earnings and no PE and all blue sky potential   

As far as looking at historic EPS Vs Forecast. I look into the past as a guide to the future. I like to look at what HAS happened - it gives a guide into what the management have been able to achieve in reality. Most stocks have lower historic growth in EPS than forecast growth because management like to say "hey we've got some great things coming up in the next few years - growth will be fantastic". PCG is one of the few that is the other way around, and I like the way they have been managed. 



> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 6.3 10.1 11.1 12.5
> DPS 1.2 1.5 2.0 3.0
> ...




The reason earnings is to be lower is due to contracts ending. The question is will they be able to re-hire that equipment? That will give you a guide as to what will happen after. As a reference look at 2nd half 04 EPS - this was lower than 1st half 04.

As buffet likes to say - invest all your resources in a few and watch like a hawk.... this is one of those stocks for me   

Cheers, 
TJ


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## TjamesX (12 May 2006)

For those interested, another of my updates...

Added to holding again yesterday and today straight after announcement.

The general Jist of the announcment was;

 - unsure why people were so pessemistic over last broker update, they are still on track for 10c EPS (after abnormals) for this year, and growth going forward looks good.

 - In Aus they have signed a new contact with RIO in the Pilbara, and a refinary contact in Vic

 - International looks increasingly good, MOU's in Asia for sale of formwork, big potential in the middle east

Thats about it


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## lewstherin (12 May 2006)

I've been in at 82c for a while and was becoming concerned that some big speculators were stuffing around with the share price because it just seemed wrong that the share should be so cheap.

PCH has got one hand in the oil & mining contracting industry - and that side is on fire at the moment - and another hand in the Aus property industry.  NSW may not be doing so well for property, but I can personally vouch that WA is exploding at the moment, so it will easily carry a good result this quarter imo.

I'll be holding for a return to the 95c+ this company deserves...


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## michael_selway (12 May 2006)

lewstherin said:
			
		

> I've been in at 82c for a while and was becoming concerned that some big speculators were stuffing around with the share price because it just seemed wrong that the share should be so cheap.
> 
> PCH has got one hand in the oil & mining contracting industry - and that side is on fire at the moment - and another hand in the Aus property industry.  NSW may not be doing so well for property, but I can personally vouch that WA is exploding at the moment, so it will easily carry a good result this quarter imo.
> 
> I'll be holding for a return to the 95c+ this company deserves...




**** they lowered forecasts!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 6.3 10.1 10.2 11.5 
DPS 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.8 

Anyway i think i read soemwhere that in WA competition is too big for PCG, scaffolding business is really risky?

thx

MS


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## TjamesX (12 May 2006)

Michael - PCG didn't lower forecasts, brokers did

Brokers forecasts change all the time, they're manic depressives like the rest of the market!

This is what a broker had for forecast EPS on PCG only 5 months ago. At the time they had a target price of 85c....

     2005  2006  2007  2008
EPS  6.70  7.27  8.10  8.92
DPS  1.25  1.50  1.50  2.00

Then PCG released the first half results which basically almost reached the full year 06 forecast in the first half, so all the brokers increased their forecasts (partly due to on offs)

Then an update reminded brokers that the second half would not be as good (which wasn't new news), this broker then lowered their forecasts only last week to;

     2005  2006  2007  2008
EPS  6.86  10.8  9.86  11.2
DPS  1.25  1.50  1.50  2.00

With a target price of *94c*

IMHO the markets response was a complete overreaction, so I have been adding again. I am happy to be wrong.... time will tell. To me their release today confirmed what I have been thinking longer term - they have a credible growth story but half year earnings will fluctuate

As far as competition in WA market goes, over 50% of their revenues are generated overseas.

People like to lump them in with housing and commercial construction market which is just plain wrong. PCG generated over 75% of revenues from Mining/resource, oil & gas industries and most of this is overseas revenue.


Brokers cannot predict everything, but neither can I.....    


(PS good to see the market reaction to the release today - and on good volume)


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## TjamesX (18 May 2006)

Added again today @ 80c

All my cash that was sitting on the sidelines is starting to dry up  

I think I have enough now - lets see where it goes......


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## michael_selway (19 May 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> As buffet likes to say - invest all your resources in a few and watch like a hawk.... this is one of those stocks for me
> 
> Cheers,
> TJ




Its got a low PE yes so may rebound

But compared to WOR which business is more dynamic for the medium term u think?



> WorleyParsons Limited (WOR) provides professional services to the energy, resource and complex process industries. It offers a broad scope of services, from feasibility studies to design and project services. WOR operates across 5 key sectors: Oil & Gas; Refining, Petrochemicals & Chemicals; Minerals & Metals; Power & Water; and Industrial & Infrastructure. Operations span 14 countries in the Asia Pacific, Middle East and United States and its client base includes Alcoa, BP, Shell, Origin, and BHP Billiton.
> 
> PCH Group Limited is a contracting services firm, which operates in the hire and sale of scaffolding to the construction, resources and oil & gas industries. The company has operations in Australia, Kazakhstan, The United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Singapore and the Caspian region. The Company has positioned itself in a number of markets which are expected to remain buoyant for at least the next several years. Whilst the Companys existing operational base stands to benefit from these conditions, several expansionary moves are also underway to broaden and diversify the Companys revenue base, both through the introduction of complimentary hire products and through geographical expansion.




thx

MS


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## TjamesX (2 June 2006)

As the PE ratio is the only easy measure of relative value - I think it is very important.

Worley's business is indeed more dynamic than PCG's and its earnings could be considered 'better' as they do not require the equivalent capex to expand the business, they just hire more people. But with WOR currently trading at 30-40x F06 earnings - you are really paying a hefty premium for future earnings.... and what if they don't achieve this????

PCG on the other hand has undynamic earnings that require capex to grow. But at 7.5x F06 earnings the market has pretty much factored in no growth to those earnings or even a pull back in the years to come. My personal view is I see no reason why they can't achieve very good growth as they are leveraged to growth industries and not just in Australia. They have proven they can grow - the market has made a bet against them...... we'll see how they go...... we already know 06 results will be well above 05 because of the first half result, the real test will be 07.

Cheers,
TJ


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## michael_selway (29 June 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> As the PE ratio is the only easy measure of relative value - I think it is very important.
> 
> Worley's business is indeed more dynamic than PCG's and its earnings could be considered 'better' as they do not require the equivalent capex to expand the business, they just hire more people. But with WOR currently trading at 30-40x F06 earnings - you are really paying a hefty premium for future earnings.... and what if they don't achieve this????
> 
> ...




They lowered forecasts again

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 6.3 9.1 9.4 10.8 
DPS 1.2 1.9 2.4 3.0 

Was before

2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 6.86 10.8 9.86 11.2
DPS 1.25 1.50 1.50 2.00

thx

MS


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## TjamesX (3 July 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> They lowered forecasts again
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...




Why have they lowered 2005 numbers when they have already been? Which broker is this and what target price do they have? The dividend was 1.25c in 2005 not 1.2 - this is fact.....?????

The company has indicated 10c EPS for this year as most likely - so until they change their view - I will believe them....

Cheers,
TJ


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## TjamesX (2 August 2006)

Technically could be forming a medium to long term bottom (IMO)...

Fundamentally you probably know where I stand on this one. See what they report in a couple of months

Been under a lot of selling pressure becuase a fund was exiting and this led to tax loss selling. I believe either CBA or HHL have totally exited or close to it - have to wait for full year report on this.

Not for the faint hearted, they have operations in the middle east   

TJ


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## TjamesX (10 August 2006)

PCG just announced it has been awarded contract for providing scaffolding for the 5th train NWS LNG project.

Work commences shortly and to run until May 2008

Now wait for the broker upgrades   

TJ


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## michael_selway (9 September 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> PCG just announced it has been awarded contract for providing scaffolding for the 5th train NWS LNG project.
> 
> Work commences shortly and to run until May 2008
> 
> ...




what do u think of results? 

Price dropped a bit

thx

MS


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## Halba (9 September 2006)

hi michael

market was disappointed with the outlook. results were OK, cash flow positive. Oversold before and after result i think. p/e is about 6

flat earnings next year, but growth in fy08,09


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## 3 veiws of a secret (9 September 2006)

I bought this share ,when it was dumped recently.
But all this "pork-chop talk" about the scaffold side of the business, (for me) is a dull business to be in.No cream or premium in this business unless they get refinery work, the rest is wrapped up but a competive market.As for doubles ,swivels ,joiners ,and putlock clips in the Middle east ,I swear they prefer bamboo. @ 63 cents it seems a favourable entry point compared to 85 cents!


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## TjamesX (10 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> what do u think of results?
> 
> Price dropped a bit
> 
> ...




The result was weaker than I had anticipated and i had to reduce my exposure to this stock because the good news for PCG will be too far away for the market to care. Learnt a good lesson. I was looking for them to be more bullish on 07 results but the delay in Kashagan development has hurt them.

From a value perspective I think they are still undervalued - I would put fair value around 80-90c with potential a lot higher.

Management seem to be setting up for longer term growth and are trying to diversify earnings amongst different markets. Their focus does seem to be very good for the company in the long term - but may have hurt the short term share price a bit (with large expansion costs).

The funds played the stock - I reckon they knew the reaction would be harsh when the market realised 07 results would be lower. I would look for funds to start building positions for PCG next growth stage (08+).

In the end I got burnt a bit playing long term fundamentals and waiting for the price to recover in the short/medium term, but I don't think this will happen till after half year results reported next year - I will put the rest of the stocks in the bottom draw where they belong.

Realistically fundamentals haven't changed;

- Solid Business
- Good Management
- Good Profits
- Potential for Growth

TJ


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## 3 veiws of a secret (22 September 2006)

TjamesX    Any recent veiws on PCG ?  ......you must be pretty peeved seeing this share slide. Looks like 50 cents is round the corner.


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## porkpie324 (22 September 2006)

me too sold PCG yesterday, on checking my contract notes i've held PCG since Jan 2004 more than doubled my stake plus divs, so will look to buy again later. porkpie


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## stiger (22 September 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> TjamesX    Any recent veiws on PCG ?  ......you must be pretty peeved seeing this share slide. Looks like 50 cents is round the corner.



IMHO the sp will bottom out at 44-46cps and the ships will start to come in so to speak .It is too well run  to fail.The market is nervous at the moment ,but longer term things will be fine.Hang in there.Dyor.


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## michael_selway (23 September 2006)

stiger said:
			
		

> IMHO the sp will bottom out at 44-46cps and the ships will start to come in so to speak .It is too well run  to fail.The market is nervous at the moment ,but longer term things will be fine.Hang in there.Dyor.




Very low dividend payout ratio even for teh future it seems

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 9.4 6.2 9.3 10.9 
DPS 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 6.2 8.5 -34.0% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 9.3 5.7 50.0% 

thx

MS


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## 3 veiws of a secret (23 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Very low dividend payout ratio even for teh future it seems
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...




Exactly Michael spot on,I was thinking of averaging PCG yesterday ,but what for! 
I've been known to do u-turns ,but at 52 cents a share not worth the brokerage.


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## TjamesX (25 September 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> TjamesX    Any recent veiws on PCG ?  ......you must be pretty peeved seeing this share slide. Looks like 50 cents is round the corner.




Well I sold a fair amount of holdings at a loss a week or so ago, but overall probably about neutral as I was in at 37 c originally. Definitly hurt the paper profits considering it got to $1   

Not really peeved but learnt a lesson - was slightly peeved at the May investor update which was way to bullish and I think the manager led a few down the garden path.....

The market won't care about this stock for a while (half year report next year) unless the Kashagan project start gets confirmed. The annual report was encouraging from a positioning perspective, but not from a profit perspective - I expect next years results to be around 5.5-6cps.

My underlying belief is its still a company with good growth prospects, but it won't be taken seriously until it gets diversified earnings in diversified geographic markets, and this seems to be where they are positioning the company.

Long term potential still very much there...

TJ


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## stiger (25 September 2006)

I got out a long time ago @94cps,maybe sensed something wasn't quite right.I never get carried away by rhetoric.Sp rules always take it while its there.Cheers .Dyor.


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## ghotib (16 November 2006)

Anyone still watching this? It's been for a bit of a run this week, and this morning there's an announcement that the company has secured "a number of contracts" including 2 in Thailand and one each in Oman and Qatar. Very light on detail, and warns that "meaningful revenue flows will not commence until the second half of the year".  I guess that means financial year? 

I held on to this through the drop over the last few months. In retrospect I paid too much in the first place and I should have taken profits when I had them, though at that stage I didn't realise that I'd bought too high. I'm back into profit as I write this. No doubt some of the recent buyers will be selling now that the announcement is out, but I bought this for the long term and I'll keep holding it. 

Anyway, just wondering if anyone else is still interested.

Ghoti


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## scsl (22 February 2007)

Jumped 15 cents (22%) to 83 cents today. The company has received "an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal from a trade buyer in relation to a possible cash takeover offer for PCH at an indicative offer price of 90 cents per PCH share." The board believes that the company is worth in excess of 90 cents and will continue discussions to obtain a [higher] price "that the PCH board would recommend to shareholders."

Congratulations to those who bought or added to their positions (or held on) in September/October '06, when PCG shares were trading between 50-60 cents.


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## TjamesX (22 February 2007)

Its enough to make you cry - I held a huge amount of stock in this company only 5 months ago - but today nothing   

Good luck to all holders, I reckon they are worth a lot more than the 90c offer long term... 

bugger


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## CanOz (22 February 2007)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> Its enough to make you cry - I held a huge amount of stock in this company only 5 months ago - but today nothing
> 
> Good luck to all holders, I reckon they are worth a lot more than the 90c offer long term...
> 
> bugger




DITTO! and so goes the trade.


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## ghotib (23 February 2007)

Hope you're right: I'm still holding. Anyone have any idea who the offer is from?


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## Halba (23 February 2007)

yep i'm still holding

offer is from CAPE a  $1bn dollar uk scaffolding giant


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## ghotib (3 April 2007)

Offer withdrawn and speculators departing. We now return to normal business.

Does anyone know anything about the PCH DRP? I'm getting VERY slow and conflicting information from Computershare, and nothing at all from the company's website. I'll ask the company soon, but thought I'd ask here first.

Thanks

Ghoti


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## exgeo (1 June 2007)

Full-year guidance yesterday of pre-tax profit of AU $10m. Based on 180 million issued shares this works out to *5.5c/share.* Obviously, tax has to be subtracted from this figure.


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## Fleeta (25 June 2007)

With Cape being back in the picture, what will be the new offer for PCH Group do people think? Surely it can't be much more than the $1.08 it is currently at. Very happy with this latest run though, just hope it isn't another false hope - thinking about getting out - do other people see upside with this stock?


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## TjamesX (8 August 2007)

What a funny last few minutes for PCG......

Went through my usual checking of companies on my watch list and see that PCG is down 15% to 0.94 on huge volume and no news from the company...

Speculation was that Cape and PCG had ceased takeover talks.

http://production.investis.com/cap/rns/story?id=1186498153nRNSG6884B

No announcement yet by PCG - so I put a bid in for 0.93.... suddenly the price goes into pre-open pending news announcement, and bids start piling up.....comes out of pre-open at 0.98 on the news that the discussions with Cape have ceased - but with the important added information that Cape offered 1.30.... and PCG knocked it back!!!!

I managed to jag a small holding (5k) for old times sake at 1.00 in all the confusion

That was wierd to say the least....

Cheers to all holders. should be an interesting few years :

TJ


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## Fleeta (8 August 2007)

Why would PCH knock back $1.30. I'll take it!!! 

Obviously the market doesn't think it was a smart move - or should we be seeing this wander up towards $1.30 as the dust settles? I think it was opportunistic of Cape to have a crack at this low point for PCH, the Directors are sending us a clear message that profit and dividends will increase by knocking back the $1.30.


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## TjamesX (8 August 2007)

Fleeta said:


> Why would PCH knock back $1.30. I'll take it!!!
> 
> Obviously the market doesn't think it was a smart move - or should we be seeing this wander up towards $1.30 as the dust settles? I think it was opportunistic of Cape to have a crack at this low point for PCH, the Directors are sending us a clear message that profit and dividends will increase by knocking back the $1.30.




I think it's a case of the hedge funds exiting because they now have no floor price of a Cape offer. But I think there was also confusion when the rumour first came out, as there was no guidance why the talks were over.... I would think you would see the price drift up to mid teens possibly, but at the end of the day Cape were prepared to pay $1.30 (take away 10% for premium control)

But given my luck with PCG before it will probably tank now - I just wanted to take a small stake to be part of it if it goes the other way :

TJ


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## Fleeta (10 September 2007)

What's going on with this today - up 9c to $1.19. Another offer in the pipeline maybe? Or just people waking up to the fact that it is a good stock and the Directors are right in their decision not to sell out? Anyway, hopefully some good news soon to keep it moving up.


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## michael_selway (13 September 2007)

Fleeta said:


> What's going on with this today - up 9c to $1.19. Another offer in the pipeline maybe? Or just people waking up to the fact that it is a good stock and the Directors are right in their decision not to sell out? Anyway, hopefully some good news soon to keep it moving up.




Its got good forward numbers, although high risk I think. This Financial Year was a big drop compared to 2006 EPS etc

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 5.1 8.6 11.7 17.0 
DPS 1.8 2.0 4.0 3.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 8.6 13.4 68.6% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 11.7 9.8 36.0% *

• Whilst there will continue to be initial costs and low level results in some new regions, the 2008 year is expected to see significant news flow on major new projects commencing in 2008 and ramping up into 2009 and 2010.
• As a result, 2008 should see a similar operating result to 2006, but sizeable earnings uplifts in 2009 and 2010 are expected.

Thanks

MS


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## 3 veiws of a secret (14 September 2007)

Fleeta said:


> What's going on with this today - up 9c to $1.19. Another offer in the pipeline maybe? Or just people waking up to the fact that it is a good stock and the Directors are right in their decision not to sell out? Anyway, hopefully some good news soon to keep it moving up.




Looks like you got your answer today........Personally I'm looking to sell my wife's stake in the share .......but then again..........


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