# Buy this dip, or get the hell out?



## princeplanet (14 March 2013)

Dunno about you folks, but I'm gettin' nervous....


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## Tyler Durden (14 March 2013)

Why?

I'm used to the 4000-4200 level, so this is still too pricey for me to get in.


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## ROE (14 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Dunno about you folks, but I'm gettin' nervous....




why nervous? are you gambling thinking your luck may run out?


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## burglar (15 March 2013)

ROE said:


> why nervous? are you gambling thinking your luck may run out?




My boats are not rising on this tide ... so I too also, am getting nervous!


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Dunno about you folks, but I'm gettin' nervous....




So you should be.



Tyler Durden said:


> Why?
> 
> I'm used to the 4000-4200 level, so this is still too pricey for me to get in.




Don't pick bottoms, pick trends. Never too pricey. Just not now.



ROE said:


> why nervous? are you gambling thinking your luck may run out?




Luck has nothing to do with it.



burglar said:


> My boats are not rising on this tide ... so I too also, am getting nervous!




So you should be.

gg


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## princeplanet (15 March 2013)

ROE said:


> why nervous? are you gambling thinking your luck may run out?




Um, yes, frankly. Spare me the lecture about "investing" not "gambling", unless of course you yourself have a 100% record of predicting what the market will do next. I spend too much time as it stands researching my portfolio and still manage to get fleeced the minute I'm not looking.  Hence the nerves... Part of my "research" is to guage other's opinions, hopefully with more experience than myself, on forums like this. Of course, if you all just wanna be smarmy about it, what's the point of this forum for guys like me? Come to think of it, what's the point of this forum for guys like you?
.


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## burglar (15 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> ... Of course, if you all just wanna be smarmy about it, what's the point of this forum for guys like me? ...




Actually ROE is a highly successful Value Investor.
If you read his posts you might believe an apology would not be out of place.


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## tech/a (15 March 2013)

Agree with ROE
If your an experienced trader/investor you will have 
Management in place for a prolonged change in sentiment.

I've posted a technical outlook on the XAO thread.
Personally I'm noticing fewer trades being triggered
More trades being closed
Fewer prospects emerging for the watch list.
Less time spent in trades before stops taken out
Trailing or initial.

ROE's comment isn't a lecture but an observation
One I've also seen time and time again with posters comments
On various threads. If you'd have included some reasoning
For your nervousness then you may not hav seen a comment like ROE's

The down day isn't a dip but there is one coming which in my
View will be a retracement large enough to buy.
With price then completing this prolonged move up.

In may I expect some serious change in trend.


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## brty (15 March 2013)

PP,



> I spend too much time as it stands researching my portfolio and still manage to get fleeced the minute I'm not looking




Then perhaps you should spend more time on your methodology instead of your portfolio, in other words what ROE stated.


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## burglar (15 March 2013)

tech/a said:


> ... In may I expect some serious change in trend.



@ tech/a,
yES i AGREE !!
Year in, year out, May is THE month when the DOW slips.
I have checked the chart.

On top of that is the US "Debt Ceiling" problem, which will not go away.

As long as the US of A is the leading global economy, 
their problems are our problems!


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## McLovin (15 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Um, yes, frankly. Spare me the lecture about "investing" not "gambling", unless of course you yourself have a 100% record of predicting what the market will do next.
> .




No one knows what the market will do. Some of us don't care, and some take calculated risks based on what their methodology tells them the market may do, with appropriate risk management. If you're just sticking your thumb in the air then you're going to have a lot of sleepless nights.

No one is 100% correct, 100% of the time and being successful doesn't require anywhere near that level of accuracy. Even Buffett only gets it right 60-70% of the time.


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## princeplanet (15 March 2013)

Thankyou to tech/a and McLovin for at least a response of a few sentences. And point taken. Reprieve today, but as has been said, surely a matter of time before a cave in? I felt like this in Dec 07 when my FA insisted I hold right through the following year. Of course, I knew less then than I do now, but my intuition was still "on the money" - so to speak......


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## Ves (15 March 2013)

I bought something today. Gee, I must be a real idiot.  Mind you, I don't use the XAO at all for decision making. As an index it's impossible to value, unless you want to get into the dreaded territory of relative historical comparsion.  For me, the XAO at 3000 or 5000 or (LOL over 9000!) does not change the underlying valuation of the stocks that I am analysing.  There are thousands of individual stocks on the market, and at anyone time some of them will be doing something completely different to the XAO. 

I'm a beloved favourite of the techies, a deer in the headlights, a favourite target for them when the short-term swings don't go my way, but most likely I'll be still here when they've gone away again, and nothing important has changed for the underlying long-term prospects of the businesses that I gladly hold when most others are hitting the kill switch.


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## burglar (15 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Thankyou to tech/a and McLovin for at least a response of a few sentences. And point taken. Reprieve today, but as has been said, surely a matter of time before a cave in? I felt like this in Dec 07 when my FA insisted I hold right through the following year. Of course, I knew less then than I do now, but my intuition was still "on the money" - so to speak......



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kung_Fu_(TV_series)



> Master Po: Close your eyes. What do you hear?
> Young Caine: I hear the water, I hear the birds.
> Po: Do you hear your own heartbeat?
> Caine: No.
> ...


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## Trembling Hand (15 March 2013)

Ves said:


> I'm a beloved favourite of the techies, a deer in the headlights, a favourite target for them when the short-term swings don't go my way, but most likely I'll be still here when they've gone away again, and nothing important has changed for the underlying long-term prospects of the businesses that I gladly hold when most others are hitting the kill switch.




Not all of them. Clearly a few agree with you considering the market we actually have. In fact I think a majority of the players, Techies, mum & pop, casual punters etc are out of sync with the market....* big time*. We will see "this is it" threads and comments for possibly years. The slightest bit of weakness will trigger PTS about the GFC with everyone wanting another go at it to "get it right this time"/"not be caught again" kinda thing.


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## Ves (15 March 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Not all of them.



Yeah sorry, I should have said "some" of the them.  I admit a bit of exaggeration. 



> Clearly a few agree with you considering the market we actually have. In fact I think a majority of the players, Techies, mum & pop, casual punters etc are out of sync with the market....* big time*. We will see "this is it" threads and comments for possibly years. The slightest bit of weakness will trigger PTS about the GFC with everyone wanting another go at it to "get it right this time"/"not be caught again" kinda thing.



Wonder how many mum & pop / casual punters will wait to get in on Tech A's predicted wave 5?   Some people are really good at technical analysis (the 3% you guys like to mention) the rest should stop trying to guess the market altogether because they will either miss opportunities or get burnt buying when the new bull wave fad is "confirmed."


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## ROE (15 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Um, yes, frankly. Spare me the lecture about "investing" not "gambling", unless of course you yourself have a 100% record of predicting what the market will do next. I spend too much time as it stands researching my portfolio and still manage to get fleeced the minute I'm not looking.  Hence the nerves... Part of my "research" is to guage other's opinions, hopefully with more experience than myself, on forums like this. Of course, if you all just wanna be smarmy about it, what's the point of this forum for guys like me? Come to think of it, what's the point of this forum for guys like you?
> .




sorry I should have been a bit more clear...  no I cant predict the stock market or price movement
but I am never nervous regardless of what is happening in the market unless I'm gambling and have absolutely no idea what going on in the business I hold.

you should not be nervous if your objective is clear and you confortable with your risk management 
... this is what I do ...

I have spare cash every month, I cant spent more than I make...well I could but I decided not to...
with that surplus I go and look for reasonable business that pay dividend with sound balance sheet.

I then buy them at a price I am willing hold for many years regardless of what happening in
the market...sometimes I buy some stocks and it went down and I think the business is in great shape..

I buy some more and vice versa ...stock can go up and I still buy more.....

Until the fundamental of the business change for the worse or I think the price doesn't justify valuation I then sell
so no need to get nervous ....I trade my surplus cash for solid business that pay dividend..Right now I have no use for those dividend so I reinvest back into the market for compounding return...one day this dividend will support my retirement but until then it stays in the market....

hope that help you so you dont get nervous...


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## Tyler Durden (16 March 2013)

My friend in finance always told me, once news of the trend gets into the mainstream, then you're too late.

*One of the most-repeated cliches in investing (well, trading, really) is that “the trend is your friend”. Most people forget the last bit “… until it ends”.

The market is a moody place. It suffers bouts of hyper-optimism and hopeless despair, swinging wildly between the two. At other times, it seems to be going nowhere fast. For those who can't resist checking their broker's website a few times each day, it must be an incredibly draining experience, riding the peaks and troughs, worrying about what the market might do next.

The train has left the station
Investors are currently enjoying a very strong market that seemingly woke from its funk in early July, and has been unstoppable ever since. It's a good time to be part of the herd – no one likes to miss out when the going is good!

The problem is that if you're just joining the party now, you've missed out on some of the early gains. That won't stop most people, who figure they can finally be assured that the market is going in the right direction.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if you're jumping into the market now, it's a much more dangerous place than it was before. Sure, the future seemed bleak back in July – after all, the market was struggling to put on any significant gains. But that was exactly the time you should have been picking up bargains.

The S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 20 per cent since those dark days – meaning you're now paying 20 per cent more for the same businesses. The thing is, the businesses are largely unchanged (and in some cases – like the big four banks – the most recent results have simply reinforced that current prices are very richly valuing these solid, but low-growth businesses).

The time to buy shares is when the market is ignoring the company, undervaluing its growth prospects, or overreacting to some short-term problem.

Lonely and friendless
Just under 12 months ago, I suggested it was time to buy Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN). The company had experienced some tough times as consumers kept their wallets firmly snapped shut. Commentators were loudly proclaiming the end of the company as we knew it. Apparently the company was a dinosaur just waiting to be put out of its misery. In short, the market was extrapolating the recent past, rather than remembering that these things are cyclical in nature.

Harvey Norman shares went nowhere for the next 10 months. Worse, they spent part of that time under the price at which I suggested they were attractive value. That just goes to demonstrate the futility of trying to time the market. Undeterred but unpopular, I held tight to that conviction, and readers who acted on the advice have enjoyed a gain of 60 per cent in just a few months. In investing, patience pays.

There will be some investors who are seeing recent market gains as the equivalent of “come on in, the water's fine”. They may do OK from here, but the shares of many companies aren't the bargain they were. Logically, with every passing day of share price gains, the chances of market-beating returns are reduced. In some cases, those odds are reduced to become longer than my chances of being called into the Australian cricket squad (though those odds have improved in the last week!).

Hanging with the 'cool kids' is expensive
Warren Buffett described the situation perfectly when he wrote “you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus”.

Investing might be the only human endeavour in which a discounted price is less attractive than a premium price. Investors who weren't prepared to buy Harvey Norman shares at $1.74 in December are now happily paying over $2.80 for exactly the same "merchandise".

Running with the herd feels more comfortable at the time. When "everyone else is doing it", we take courage and solace from being part of a crowd. The problem is that by the time "everyone is doing it", the price has already skyrocketed. The current bank share prices demonstrate that in spades.

Foolish takeaway
Following the herd is dangerous. When it turns on a dime, and runs back the way it came, the unsuspecting investor goes from happily following along to being right in the path of the oncoming stampede, and rarely has the opportunity to get out of the way in time.

The antidote is simple – ignore the crowd. Trade "accepted Wisdom" for Foolishness (note the capitalisation). 

Tune out the crowd. Buy great companies at attractive prices – no matter what the prevailing "Wisdom" might be. Then have the courage of your convictions. Easy to say, harder to do – but well worth the effort.*

http://www.smh.com.au/business/motl...ure-going-to-get-trampled-20130315-2g5bf.html


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## Trembling Hand (16 March 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> My friend in finance always told me, once news of the trend gets into the mainstream, then you're too late.





Tyler can I ask have you ever got onto any significant trend before?


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## Intrinsic Value (16 March 2013)

I dont see a lot value around at the  moment.

I am 70percent cash again after selling up last week. It might have been a bit early to sell but the profit was good so a time to sit on the sidelines and wait for some better value in the market. I have no idea when this will happen. It could be 6 months away who knows.


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## McLovin (16 March 2013)

Trembling Hand]We will see "this is it" threads and comments for possibly years. The slightest bit of weakness will trigger PTS about the GFC with everyone wanting another go at it to "get it right this time"/"not be caught again" kinda thing.[/QUOTE] 

Yes! Every man and his dog makes predictions these days about how Americans will be shuffling down the sidewalk in their bathrobes in a few years said:


> My friend in finance always told me, once news of the trend gets into the mainstream, then you're too late.




The last bull market went for twenty years, I'm sure it was in the mainstream media well before 1999.


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## princeplanet (16 March 2013)

ROE said:


> sorry I should have been a bit more clear...  no I cant predict the stock market or price movement
> but I am never nervous regardless of what is happening in the market unless I'm gambling and have absolutely no idea what going on in the business I hold.
> 
> you should not be nervous if your objective is clear and you confortable with your risk management
> ...




That certainly sounds like a sound strategy. So true valuation is tantamount, I suppose at some point (and it may only be one point) the SP hits it true valuation. If you always buy cheap, and sell at valuation or better you can't lose I suppose, particularly if the dividend is good and you've held it for a while. But what If I have already bought stocks over their true value? Let's face it anyone who has bought banks in the last 6 months can't escape feeling nervous. But yeah, point taken, If I'd never bought overvalued stocks, then I need never feel nervous, just patient....


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## Tyler Durden (16 March 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Tyler can I ask have you ever got onto any significant trend before?




I bought in the previous dip, so got on way before this current bull. Not saying it was skill, but my plan was just to buy low.


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## Smurf1976 (17 March 2013)

If Coles / Woolies drops the price of most items in the store by 10, 20 or whatever % then as a customer I don't see any reason to complain. It's still the same bananas, cereal, apples, cat food or whatever it's just being sold at a lower price.

If the market drops the price of businesses I want to buy into by 10, 20 or whatever % then I don't see any reason to complain. It's still the same mining, banking, retail or whatever business it's just being sold at a lower price.

Suffice to say there are many stocks I'd buy, but not at their current prices. If the price drops, and nothing has changed with the underlying business, then I'll be in.


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## sydboy007 (17 March 2013)

I've only been recently investing in the market, was able to ride the wave of buying since November.

Some of my portfolio is up over 25%, a couple of other stocks up over 15%.

Been thinking should I take the profit and sit out for a few months and see what happens with the month of May and the USA debt ceiling pantomime.

But where do I put the cash?  Interest rates are pathetically low, though at least provide a real return unlike a fair chunk of the world.

Most of my listed investments are providing 7%+ with the franking credits, and around half is over 8% yield.

The question is will I make a better return by turning over the portfolio more often to try and time the market, or will I be better off just focusing on the business and how the profit growth is going and hold on while the numbers add up for me?


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## princeplanet (21 March 2013)

Anyone buying into this new dip? Something tells me I should, but too chicken to pull the trigger. When will I learn?.....


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## stewiejp (21 March 2013)

I am - but my strategy could be different to yours.


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## Country Lad (21 March 2013)

princeplanet said:


> Anyone buying into this new dip? Something tells me I should, but too chicken to pull the trigger. When will I learn?.....




Yes, there are opportunities whatever the market is doing, up, down, sideways, it doesn't matter, it is a matter of picking the right stocks.  Needs more work in an unsettled market, that's the only difference.  

This has been a stock picking market for some months with not all the boats rising with the tide.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## tinhat (22 March 2013)

Recently I have bought SLR, MML, MNF and am looking closely at MTU. There are some opportunities out there. I hope I picked the right ones  SLR has not gone my way.


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## qldfrog (22 March 2013)

tinhat said:


> Recently I have bought SLR, MML, MNF and am looking closely at MTU. There are some opportunities out there. I hope I picked the right ones  SLR has not gone my way.




today was better, bought a bit too early too
 wait and see


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## tinhat (3 April 2013)

Oh dear! Not a good day for the gold stocks. High risk entries have not gone my way.

People are buying the dip though. Good quality, especially small caps, are getting bought up today. Just looking at my watch list, HSN up 6%. SIP, SRX, MTU, MNF, IIN TPM, RCG, NXT all up.


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## drsmith (4 April 2013)

Any insights as to why resources have taken a pounding over the past several weeks ?


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## CanOz (4 April 2013)

drsmith said:


> Any insights as to why resources have taken a pounding over the past several weeks ?




Copper, Silver, Gold, Platinum, and now oil have been slammed...US Dollar has gone from 79.11 in February to 82.86 yesterday (and 83.09 today)...

Barometers?

CanOz


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## Country Lad (4 April 2013)

This was from  another thread.



Country Lad said:


> ...............the indexes I developed deliver only a cautionary message.  It is a combination of such things as volatility, shares trading at highs and lows and a sort of calculation of the market sentiment…………........When the canary is below a certain point, I review and possibly tighten stops, pay more attention to the market sentiment overall and of each share and take more care when selecting a share to enter long.  Or go fishing or take the opportunity to travel to remote areas without internet.




Time for me to go fishing, the cautionary message my canary is delivering is fairly clear for the moment.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## marti (5 April 2013)

Hi Guys,
First post on this site,
Regarding the post header, I'm also getting the very uncomfortable  feeling that hedge funds ,major institutions et al, are all managing their exits carefully and taking anything of value of what's left of the mid market caps, their so called bot's have been doing this for the last year or so as they exit their positions and cash up it seems-so no, this dip isn't really a dip, it is a mass exit by the pro's managing their capital-that's why ASIC and the ASX are still allowing these 1 share transactions to be accepted as the large corporations massage their way out, but not the public, you or I cannot do that, I do know I have also held in hope, but these day's in vain I'm afraid.
Each day brings another denial or even more dismay as you see your investments continually sinking without any major reason and wondering why.
Pretty clear to see what's happening though.


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## VSntchr (5 April 2013)

marti said:


> Hi Guys,
> First post on this site,
> Regarding the post header, I'm also getting the very uncomfortable  feeling that hedge funds ,major institutions et al, are all managing their exits carefully and taking anything of value of what's left of the mid market caps, their so called bot's have been doing this for the last year or so as they exit their positions and cash up it seems-so no, this dip isn't really a dip, it is a mass exit by the pro's managing their capital-that's why ASIC and the ASX are still allowing these 1 share transactions to be accepted as the large corporations massage their way out, but not the public, you or I cannot do that, I do know I have also held in hope, but these day's in vain I'm afraid.
> Each day brings another denial or even more dismay as you see your investments continually sinking without any major reason and wondering why.
> Pretty clear to see what's happening though.




LOL!

Plenty of exits but also plenty of insto's still becoming substantial holders of companies. This post is just ridiculous.
You do understand that majority of the funds HAVE TO HOLD (by agreement) certain % of domestic equity...surely you don't actually believe your own post!


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## ROE (5 April 2013)

Marti, I see plenty of new investors in my life time and they all in FOMO FOL and they all chasing the bucks
and when it doesn't work out...they blame it on manipulation, fund managers engineer their loss, bankers has sinister plots etc...etc... 

you can not be a good investor unless you admit you are making the mistakes and taking steps to correct it
and learn to be a better investor and not blaming the market factors 

all you doing is transfer your hard earned cash to experienced investors who has the right temperament and patient to invest in solid business that deliver result over time


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## tech/a (5 April 2013)

ROE said:


> Marti, I see plenty of new investors in my life time and they all in FOMO FOL and they all chasing the bucks
> and when it doesn't work out...they blame it on manipulation, fund managers engineer their loss, bankers has sinister plots etc...etc...
> 
> you can not be a good investor unless you admit you are making the mistakes and taking steps to correct it
> ...




Aint that the truth.


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## McLovin (5 April 2013)

ROE said:


> all you doing is transfer your hard earned cash to experienced investors who has the right temperament and patient to invest in solid business that deliver result over time




And they're doing it one share at a time; like Chinese water torture.


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## chops_a_must (5 April 2013)

ROE said:


> Marti, I see plenty of new investors in my life time and they all in FOMO FOL and they all chasing the bucks
> and when it doesn't work out...they blame it on manipulation, fund managers engineer their loss, bankers has sinister plots etc...etc...
> 
> you can not be a good investor unless you admit you are making the mistakes and taking steps to correct it
> ...




Indeed.

For what it's worth, stocks on my watchlist as potential buys have really just gone sideways, and barely dipped at all.

I don't see anything that has changed in the stocks that were trending well. The trend is still in tact for these. They're actually setting up nicely if we get a move higher.


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## skc (5 April 2013)

chops_a_must said:


> Indeed.
> 
> For what it's worth, stocks on my watchlist as potential buys have really just gone sideways, and barely dipped at all.
> 
> I don't see anything that has changed in the stocks that were trending well. The trend is still in tact for these. They're actually setting up nicely if we get a move higher.




Indeed a very two-speed market at the moment. Non-mining is holding up quite well - even the cyclicals like retail and building materials. 

Small punters are probably hurting a bit more if they have larger exposures on the specie end.

The fall is only ~250 pts on the XJO and that's not a lot after a run of some 1150 pts since July. Certainly still in "dip" territory. So be alert but not alarmed (yet).


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## sinner (5 April 2013)

skc said:


> Indeed a very two-speed market at the moment. Non-mining is holding up quite well - even the cyclicals like retail and building materials.
> 
> Small punters are probably hurting a bit more if they have larger exposures on the specie end.
> 
> The fall is only ~250 pts on the XJO and that's not a lot after a run of some 1150 pts since July. Certainly still in "dip" territory. So be alert but not alarmed (yet).




A low correlation market is a healthy market, generally implies investors in aggregate are concentrating on single name and idiosyncratic fundamentals rather than systematic fundamentals.


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## skc (5 April 2013)

sinner said:


> A low correlation market is a healthy market, generally implies investors in aggregate are concentrating on single name and idiosyncratic fundamentals rather than systematic fundamentals.




Yes and no... there's very high correlation within the two speed market (from my observation). I think the systematic fundamentals are driving the two sectors apart. 

P.S. Man, you use some big words. Idiosyncratic!


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## nysefloortrader (10 April 2013)

skc said:


> Indeed a very two-speed market at the moment. Non-mining is holding up quite well - even the cyclicals like retail and building materials.
> 
> Small punters are probably hurting a bit more if they have larger exposures on the specie end.
> 
> The fall is only ~250 pts on the XJO and that's not a lot after a run of some 1150 pts since July. Certainly still in "dip" territory. So be alert but not alarmed (yet).




I agree to be alert, but that alert could turn to full alert and then panic. I think the market are overdue for a massive dip, just stand back a minute and look at them. Things are way to overdone, for this little dip to mean it is all finished and the bulls to come back. I do not want to own this market at the moment that is for sure. 

Think the bears are growling here and have had their first feed......but the alarming thing is they are going to come back soon for seconds. 

Just want I think.


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## Tyler Durden (18 April 2013)

The "sell in May and go away" saying could not have any better timing.


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## Muschu (18 April 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> The "sell in May and go away" saying could not have any better timing.




Is this sector-aligned however?  Look at the recent contrast  / performance between (for example) resource and telco stocks.

Do you plan to sell "all" and "go away" at this point in time.... Or wait a while as I plan to do and go stock by stock?

I prefer to watch and assess rather than assume the past will repeat itself.  It may. It may not.


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## So_Cynical (18 April 2013)

Big opportunity coming up in the miners and gold...the 2 resource focused ETF's are looking good, why take on individual stock risk when the index is now just as easy to buy.


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## AlterEgo (18 April 2013)

Tyler Durden said:


> The "sell in May and go away" saying could not have any better timing.




But it's not May yet! Should've sold in March.


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## tinhat (19 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Big opportunity coming up in the miners and gold...the 2 resource focused ETF's are looking good, why take on individual stock risk when the index is now just as easy to buy.




That's not a bad suggestion which I hadn't really considered (never bought an ETF). For miners/resources I assume they are RSR and MAM? With gold being GOLD?


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## qldfrog (19 April 2013)

GOLD or PMGOLD (perth mint) can be used indeed as ETFs.
hope it helps


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## Tyler Durden (19 April 2013)

Muschu said:


> Do you plan to sell "all" and "go away" at this point in time.... Or wait a while as I plan to do and go stock by stock?




I actually plan to buy


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## So_Cynical (20 April 2013)

tinhat said:


> That's not a bad suggestion which I hadn't really considered (never bought an ETF). For miners/resources I assume they are RSR and MAM? With gold being GOLD?




Yep RSR and MAM, both have Gold exposure anyway.


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## chops_a_must (22 April 2013)

It might be worth people doing a little bit of a thought experiment.

Keeping in mind some things...

We have seen some big market heavyweights collapse, and where has the market gone?

What has been going up?

Are those heavyweights going to continue to collapse?

And if they don't, or if they are, what is going to move the market?

Are the high yielding stocks going to retrace, or are they going to keep going, or go sideways?

What is the market going to do based on the likely moves in the near term?


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## Out Too Soon (16 May 2013)

I've noticed since "Sell in May, go away" became well known the May "dip" has drifted back to end of March (the herd trying to beat the rush), maybe May isn't so bad anymore or maybe time & stats will beat it back into submission. Still "Sell in May, go away" should be in the back of the mind of every rookie 

(No lectures please, they're boring & will be ignored anyway : )


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## MrBurns (16 May 2013)

David Koche thinks we are over the top and overdue for a large correction.
US mainly I think but we would follow as usual.


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## VSntchr (16 May 2013)

MrBurns said:


> David Koche thinks we are over the top and overdue for a large correction.
> US mainly I think but we would follow as usual.




BUY BUY BUY


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## pavilion103 (16 May 2013)

Setups are appearing for me. I'm trading them and making money. This has been a great month or so.

I'm not guessing when I'm going to get out. I'll keep trailing the stops and let the market tell me when it's time to get out.


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## Tyler Durden (16 May 2013)

Out Too Soon said:


> I've noticed since "Sell in May, go away" became well known the May "dip" has drifted back to end of March (the herd trying to beat the rush), maybe May isn't so bad anymore or maybe time & stats will beat it back into submission. Still "Sell in May, go away" should be in the back of the mind of every rookie
> 
> (No lectures please, they're boring & will be ignored anyway : )




Maybe only this year. I'm still looking forward to next May...or any dip actually.


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