# I cannot believe the market slumped post bailout!



## Rastan (4 October 2008)

The DOW and asia down, what would have been the reaction if they didn't pass the bill for goodness sakes..?

http://news.theage.com.au/business/us-stocks-slump-after-bailout-approved-20081004-4tot.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-end-day-week/story.aspx?guid={EF81D741-5F2E-4B25-AA1C-7288BC936D9C}

We can probably assume that AUS will obediently follow the US as it always does... I feel a bit damned if you do, damned if you dont... Obv if you are long term you can opt to weather it out.

Hopefully Monday isn't going to be another rorting slide but it doesnt look good....


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## tech/a (4 October 2008)

I think its pretty obvious.
My reasoning is here Posts 15 and 17

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12701


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## James Austin (4 October 2008)

Rastan said:


> The DOW and asia down, what would have been the reaction if they didn't pass the bill for goodness sakes..?
> 
> http://news.theage.com.au/business/us-stocks-slump-after-bailout-approved-20081004-4tot.html
> 
> ...




its rarely rational Rastan, just got to trade what the market gives us


re bailout:

like a euphoric drunk, keen to consume more, the markets rally because its happy hour; $700 billion for all-and-sundry

then comes the hang-over, the sobering, 
the drunks realise their booze driven euphoria is not reflected back to them by the reality on Main Street. 

No. Happy hour has finished and only a head-ache remains.

Back to reality.


PS you went long at 4.10pm fri did you?


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## MrBurns (4 October 2008)

I think the market had already factored in the bill passing through.

I don't think they believe it will do much even the US pollies are saying it's just to build confidence but little else.

I think our market will flounder and fall on further bad news, there wont be any good news.

It's like theTitanic, it's been fatally hit, it will sink, we're just waiting while the water slowly fills the hull and we're dragged under.


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## spottygoose (4 October 2008)

This is why it fell post bail out:

"Wall Street welcomed the action, but investors also were buffeted by a bad report on the job market. The Labor Department said employers slashed 159,000 jobs in September, the largest cut in five years and further evidence of a sinking economy."


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## CanOz (4 October 2008)

One way or another the market will go lower, at the end of the day no one wants to buy in these conditions, bailout or no bailout. I still expect a low in Mid to late October. The question is...what kind of rally will ensue?

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Big_Daz (4 October 2008)

Did anyone else get a call from a (I won't name them) broker at 12:30pm Friday afternoon claiming the bill had been signed and that I should be buying.

Next thing I know he is asking for my credit card and who he should make out the invoice to.

Must be feeling lucky that it was signed...


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## Rastan (4 October 2008)

thanks tech - i looked at 'New Posts' but didn't see that thread - didn't mean to start a hijack. Well if anything this has proven to me that even if you think you can predict the outcome of an event you still can't predict the markets reaction to it. Also when it comes to securities - generally whatever I'm thinking - so is everyone else - maybe a double and triple think is in order. 

I (like everyone else in retrospect) had a good hunch that the bill would be passed so I (over)loaded up hoping to 'sell the news', not only has the reaction been bad but commodities are down and I bought mostly commodities and energy - and i thought last week was bad. If you can weather the storm then Nov/Dec might be good but I was placing a quick one based on the bailout decision (cant finance it long term - even just a month). I was hoping to help claw back some of the last 2 months damage on the way back up if/when the bill passed. Doh!


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## CanOz (4 October 2008)

Rastan said:


> thanks tech - i looked at 'New Posts' but didn't see that thread - didn't mean to start a hijack. Well if anything this has proven to me that even if you think you can predict the outcome of an event you still can't predict the markets reaction to it. Also when it comes to securities - generally whatever I'm thinking - so is everyone else - maybe a double and triple think is in order.
> 
> I (like everyone else in retrospect) had a good hunch that the bill would be passed so I (over)loaded up hoping to 'sell the news', not only has the reaction been bad but commodities are down and I bought mostly commodities and energy - and i thought last week was bad. If you can weather the storm then Nov/Dec might be good but I was placing a quick one based on the bailout decision (cant finance it long term - even just a month). I was hoping to help claw back some of the last 2 months damage on the way back up if/when the bill passed. Doh!




We need to be looking for clues that a bottom has been put in. The Markets need to purge the rest of weak hands in an all out capitualtion, which in my view has not happened yet because the silly Govment keeps meddling.

I'm worried that if all the boomers start unloading thier 401ks into the market it could go much, much further though.

CanOz


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## Julia (5 October 2008)

CanOz said:


> We need to be looking for clues that a bottom has been put in. The Markets need to purge the rest of weak hands in an all out capitualtion, which in my view has not happened yet because the silly Govment keeps meddling.
> 
> I'm worried that if all the boomers start unloading thier 401ks into the market it could go much, much further though.
> 
> CanOz




CanOz, what is the '401ks'?


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## CanOz (6 October 2008)

Julia said:


> CanOz, what is the '401ks'?




The 401k's are the US equivalent of Superannuation. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/401kplan.asp

Cheers,


CanOz


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## lesm (6 October 2008)

Buffet was interviwed prior to Senate vote.

A quoted excerpt is provided below:

“In my adult lifetime, I don’t think I’ve ever seen people as fearful economically as they are right now…. This is really an economic Pearl Harbor. That sounds melodramatic, and I’ve never used that phrase before, but this really is one. When $40 billion of Treasury bills are sold, like they were last week, 7-day Treasury bills, at a yield of 1/20 of 1 percent, that means the whole country, or a lot of the country, is at the point of putting their money under the mattress. You’re only 1/20 of 1 percent away from where it’s better to put the money under the mattress. You don’t want 300 million Americans putting their money under the mattress. This economy doesn’t work well without the lubrication of credit. And trust. And that’s been lost.”

The link to the interview:

http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/01/1/an-exclusive-conversation-with-warren-buffett


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## howardbandy (6 October 2008)

Greetings all --

This is a slight over-simplification, but not by much --

Start with the US Federal budget for comparison -- $2.5 trillion, plus or minus, depending on what is admitted to.  It takes the US congress most of the year to agree on what will be included.

Add a panic-induced request that an additional $0.7 trillion (28% of the annual budget), plus or minus, depending on how much additional spending was added to get it passed.  This money is to be manufactured on demand -- it does not exist in any budget category now.  It may or may not be eventually repaid.  The congress is told that they must immediately pass this appropriation or "there may not be an economy on Monday morning" (New York Times reporting on the crisis meetings).

The dispersal of these funds is under the exclusive control of the executive branch of the government -- George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Henry Paulson, etal -- who will be essentially unsupervised, have four lame-duck months left in their administration, and have a record of mismanagement of funds under the best of circumstances.

So, should we be confidant and buy, or concerned and sell?

Thanks,
Howard


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## Uncle Festivus (6 October 2008)

The bottom line is Wall St is only now begrudgingly conceding that the real economy is in recession. Without shorters there will be not be anyone to set low points to rally from. Don't look for a bottom this year at least? It's only just started!


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## howardbandy (6 October 2008)

howardbandy said:


> Greetings all --
> 
> So, should we be confidant and buy, or concerned and sell?
> 
> ...




Confident -- sorry


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## theasxgorilla (6 October 2008)

howardbandy said:


> The dispersal of these funds is under the exclusive control of the executive branch of the government -- George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Henry Paulson, etal -- who will be essentially unsupervised, have four lame-duck months left in their administration, and have a record of mismanagement of funds under the best of circumstances.
> 
> So, should we be confidant and buy, or concerned and sell?




Well, when you put it like that, given the dubious nature of the decision making of this mob in the past you've got to wonder how they'll turn this mess to their own advantages.


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## tech/a (6 October 2008)

theasxgorilla said:


> Well, when you put it like that, given the dubious nature of the decision making of this mob in the past you've got to wonder how they'll turn this mess to their own advantages.




They've done all they can so will simply leave and let someone else sort it out.
They already have created *"Their own advantage" and in doing so creating the mess,no need to do anything with it--JOB DONE.*

As I have said before Democratic Dictatorship.


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## Macquack (6 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> They've done all they can so will simply leave and let someone else sort it out.
> They already have created *"Their own advantage" and in doing so creating the mess,no need to do anything with it--JOB DONE.*
> 
> As I have said before Democratic Dictatorship.




It suprises me that nothing much is said about Hank Paulson (Treasury Secretary) being worth $700 million.

What other industry could a shmuck like that earn that much money?
Answer- None, only the finance industry.

Paulsons rescue package is really saying " We have milked the system dry (thank you), please give us some more cash, so we can do it again (thanks again and goodbye)" [actually bad buy].

Wake up America, the perpetrators are under your nose.


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## method (6 October 2008)

I wasn't surprised, you don't just pull $700b out of no where, it has to come from somewhere and in this case, borrowed from overseas (UAE and Asia), paid back with interest by American tax payers... I believe there are far more banks (as there are 8000+ banks in the USA "yes 8000+, not 800+") which are already in trouble which no one knows about yet. This has a long way to go before confidence is regained. Hopefully unemployment doesn't snowball upwards as I was reading many companies can't even borrow money to pay wages!


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## brty (6 October 2008)

Hi,

Method,



> you don't just pull $700b out of no where,




They are just printing it, it is coming out of thin air. By doing it they are debasing the whole currency. 

Howard, thanks for that $2.5T figure. I was trying to find it to put the $700b (at any one time) figure into context.

Basically the bailout means that Wall Street is more important than either Defense spending, Education or Health this financial year. To me it means that the new govt will have a very hard time to rein in spending in next years budget, as there are many angry people in the US.

I'm also thinking that the passing of the bailout really is the case of "times up" for the current financial system, and realization of such by many around the world. Problem is, no-one has an alternative that is easy to get to.

brty


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## Struzball (6 October 2008)

brty said:


> They are just printing it, it is coming out of thin air. By doing it they are debasing the whole currency.




That being the case, why does the USD keep rising against the AUD?
I would have imagined if you create $1T the rest of the USD pool is worth $1T less.


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## method (6 October 2008)

That's what I thought.. Listening to what costello was saying, they were going to borrow it from the UAE and Asia.. I don't think anyone really knows what is going on and / or what is going to happen lol



Struzball said:


> That being the case, why does the USD keep rising against the AUD?
> I would have imagined if you create $1T the rest of the USD pool is worth $1T less.


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## korrupt_1 (6 October 2008)

brty said:


> Hi,
> 
> They are just printing it, it is coming out of thin air. By doing it they are debasing the whole currency.




fundamentally... thats what s'pose to happen.. but please explain why the USD is appreciating against all other currencies?

look at the aud/usd... 76c!!!! OMG... it was 20c higher not too long ago!!! 

--

re: market slump...

i'm feeling very demoralised atm... can't believe it has gotten this bad... well i can believe... but i can't believe at the same time (if that's possible)....  All ords down 120pts and still counting...


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## brty (6 October 2008)

Struzball,

These things always take time. How much time is anyones guess.

People are also fearing deflation, that is tanking commodities. The $A is seen as a commodity play. We also have hedge funds unwinding positions, this includes selling off Aussie resource stocks, then converting the money back into $US. 

Plus the anticipated drop in IR tomorrow could be large making investments here look relatively unattractive compared to elsewhere (especially where bank deposits are guaranteed).

brty


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## MrBurns (6 October 2008)

Where do you all get your all ords updates from, I go to the ASX site but thats delayed 20 minutes, are there any other better sources ?


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## method (6 October 2008)

Create a comsec account or any other type of online trading account. You don't have to trade to keep your account active and everything is live.



MrBurns said:


> Where do you all get your all ords updates from, I go to the ASX site but thats delayed 20 minutes, are there any other better sources ?


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## Green08 (6 October 2008)

Down XAO  - 135.5

Etrade are pretty much on time perhaps a minitue delay today


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## brty (6 October 2008)

Have a look at a long term chart on the $US index, what we have had over the last 3 months looks like a short covering rally that has just run into massive overhead resistence.

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=

If I knew how to show it I would, maybe someone else can help.

There has also been a massive concerted effort to keep the $US up by central banks around the world. As those CB's become more worried about the internal affairs of their own countries, they will eventually let the $US go.

We are currently in an economic crisis that has never been experienced before. The powers that be don't know what to do exactly and are making up history as they go, hoping to resolve the situation.
What they do know is to not let the '30's type depression happen again, so this time the printing presses will run overtime instead, unless there is some other option.

brty


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## Trembling Hand (6 October 2008)

brty said:


> We also have hedge funds unwinding positions, this includes selling off Aussie resource stocks, then converting the money back into $US.




I'm with you on this one.


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## korrupt_1 (6 October 2008)

hmmm... i get the feeling that today people are beyond fear... it looks like the $hit has hit the fan and capitulation is very very near....:fan


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## agro (6 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> hmmm... i get the feeling that today people are beyond fear... it looks like the $hit has hit the fan and capitulation is very very near....:fan




anyone buying now will absolutely rake it in


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## skyQuake (6 October 2008)

agro said:


> anyone buying now will absolutely rake it in




Why now? Not afraid of sleepless nights nor smelly fingers?


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## nomore4s (6 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> hmmm... i get the feeling that today people are beyond fear... it looks like the $hit has hit the fan and capitulation is very very near....:fan




Todays action is hardly suprising, the dow went from over 250 points up to close 150 down on Friday night. Reality sinking in perhaps?


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## Struzball (6 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> hmmm... i get the feeling that today people are beyond fear... it looks like the $hit has hit the fan and capitulation is very very near....:fan




Just today an old guy nearing retirement (less than a year away) brought up in a staff meeting (completely un-related to anything) that everybody should convert their super to fixed interest.

So this morning everybody was in a mad rush running round with their QSuper conversion forms asking the old guy for 'financial advice' - which he was happy to provide.  

I frowned and shook my head.  

I myself am more than happy to keep my super as is (50% high growth).  The balance is not very high, i'm 40 years to retirement, and every week that the unit prices fall the more units I'm getting for my money


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## Struzball (6 October 2008)

nomore4s said:


> Todays action is hardly suprising, the dow went from over 250 points up to close 150 down on Friday night. Reality sinking in perhaps?




DOW futures down over 150 as well.


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## nomore4s (6 October 2008)

agro said:


> anyone buying now will absolutely rake it in




lol, over what time frame?

While you may be right, things could also get alot cheaper yet.

I won't be looking to buy any longer term holdings until at the very least there is some evidence of a base forming.


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## Hopeful (6 October 2008)

skyQuake said:


> Why now? Not afraid of sleepless nights nor smelly fingers?




If you take a look at the long-term monthly charts you'll see that what we have now is just a strong pullback after a similarly strong run up - it hasn't even reached the 61.8% fib retracement yet! . Don't be surprised to see it pullback to the old tops of around 3500 on the all ords - if it does get there it will be on a capitulation spike - have your cash ready to invest heavily when everyone around you is panicking and throwing their shares at the market.


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## Nick Radge (6 October 2008)

The 70's bear market took 4-years to finally hit the low. We're not quite 12-months yet...

After the first 12-months in the 70's bear the market dropped 24.5%. From then till the absolute low it dropped another 48.8%. The total decline for the ASX was 61.2% and it wasn't until September 1979, almost 10-years from the prior high, till new highs were made.

Of course, its different this time....


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## agro (6 October 2008)

ok you have all convinced me

i have liquidated everything


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## Rastan (6 October 2008)

Since we just seem to follow the DOW like an eyeless mule the question is whether or not fridays slide will continue tonight or will the US pick up a bit... (or in other words cut my losses or wait and see and lose some more)

I find it strange that the US is in such a sh*t state and when the Dow goes down 1% we go down 2% (all last week most of my holdings seem to do that) when our economy and lending are stronger than the US. I know we are dependant on them (like everyone else) but _that_ dependant.. oh well...


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## agro (6 October 2008)

Rastan said:


> Since we just seem to follow the DOW like an eyeless mule the question is whether or not fridays slide will continue tonight or will the US pick up a bit... (or in other words cut my losses or wait and see and lose some more)
> 
> I find it strange that the US is in such a sh*t state and when the Dow goes down 1% we go down 2% (all last week most of my holdings seem to do that) when our economy and lending are stronger than the US. I know we are dependant on them (like everyone else) but _that_ dependant.. oh well...




forget the dow - we r gone either way

cash is king


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## korrupt_1 (6 October 2008)

agro said:


> anyone buying now will absolutely rake it in




might take a punt and go long about an hour or so before market closes and hold overnight....
AU market has not factored in the interest rate cut tomorrow...
also... US could pull off a surprise rate cut tonight or soonish...

Might be a good op to pocket some points and get short again a little higher up


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## agro (6 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> might take a punt and go long about an hour or so before market closes and hold overnight....
> AU market has not factored in the interest rate cut tomorrow...
> also... US could pull off a surprise rate cut tonight or soonish...
> 
> Might be a good op to pocket some points and get short again a little higher up




when you mean short - you must mean 1 day cause that is what ever happens.

goes up couple hundred then next day retreats a couple of hundred


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## Nyden (6 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> might take a punt and go long about an hour or so before market closes and hold overnight....
> AU market has not factored in the interest rate cut tomorrow...
> also... US could pull off a surprise rate cut tonight or soonish...
> 
> Might be a good op to pocket some points and get short again a little higher up




Of course it's factored in. Everyone and their dog has already assumed a 50 bp cut. Just look at the AUD ...


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## awg (6 October 2008)

Macquack said:


> It suprises me that nothing much is said about Hank Paulson (Treasury Secretary) being worth $700 million.
> 
> What other industry could a shmuck like that earn that much money?
> Answer- None, only the finance industry.
> ...





If things get as bad as they seem like they may, he will need to find somewhere else to live, so many people will go to the wall, but they will still own their 45's!..when the full story comes out, they will most certainly be looking for someone to blame


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## OzWaveGuy (6 October 2008)

Events rarely drive the market. Social mood drives it In a bull market, good news is good news and bad news is good news - the market rises.

In a bear market, social mood is negative, so bad news is bad news and good news is bad news. Hence many people cannot understand why the market drops when fundamentals are positive. 

I remember reading a very good article by elliott wave international that demonstrated this. In the early 70's there was 10 quarters of consecutive growth, yet the DJI index declined over that same period, before breaking out to the upside - very unexpected market actions based on fundamentals. 

Expect the overall market conditions to get aggressively worse in the coming months.

btw: $800B is a drop in the ocean.


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## MrBurns (6 October 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:


> Events rarely drive the market. Social mood drives it In a bull market, good news is good news and bad news is good news - the market rises.
> 
> In a bear market, social mood is negative, so bad news is bad news and good news is bad news. Hence many people cannot understand why the market drops when fundamentals are positive.
> 
> ...




I dont think it's social mood or panic the fact is that all of these companies will be worth less and have less profit so their shares are worth less, just exactly how much less is the question, only time will tell as all the facts aren't on the table yet.


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## chops_a_must (6 October 2008)

Struzball said:


> That being the case, why does the USD keep rising against the AUD?
> I would have imagined if you create $1T the rest of the USD pool is worth $1T less.



Along with the withdrawal of money, our central bank has taken a reverse peg against the USD. 

So as the USD becomes worthless, so does the AUD. Criminal in my eyes. Absolutely ****ing stupid.


OzWaveGuy said:


> Events rarely drive the market. Social mood drives it In a bull market, good news is good news and bad news is good news - the market rises.
> 
> In a bear market, social mood is negative, so bad news is bad news and good news is bad news. Hence many people cannot understand why the market drops when fundamentals are positive.
> 
> ...



Yes, because good news is bad news, and bad news is good news indefinitely forever and a day. Isn't that right WP?


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## OzWaveGuy (6 October 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I dont think it's social mood or panic the fact is that all of these companies will be worth less and have less profit so their shares are worth less, just exactly how much less is the question, only time will tell as all the facts aren't on the table yet.




Right, but it is the people that ultimately drive the market and determine how successful these companies are by purchasing their goods - if mood is down, people buy less, companies make less profit.


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## MrBurns (6 October 2008)

OzWaveGuy said:


> Right, but it is the people that ultimately drive the market and determine how successful these companies are by purchasing their goods - if mood is down, people buy less, companies make less profit.




The success of the company also depends on if finance is available to run it and also to finance it's customers.
When that dries up it all collapses.


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## Nicks (7 October 2008)

CanOz said:


> The 401k's are the US equivalent of Superannuation. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/401kplan.asp
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Yes, I think it will be a snowball effect. The 401ks are taking a beating, then the people dont have as much money any more, money is tight - so spending is tight...... the rest is a circular self fulfilling sequences of events.


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## korrupt_1 (7 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> might take a punt and go long about an hour or so before market closes and hold overnight....
> AU market has not factored in the interest rate cut tomorrow...
> also... US could pull off a surprise rate cut tonight or soonish...
> 
> Might be a good op to pocket some points and get short again a little higher up




OUCH!!!!... not doing that again....


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## Trembling Hand (7 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> OUCH!!!!... not doing that again....




Didn't have a stop!!!!!!!!!!


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## GreatPig (7 October 2008)

And just to rub salt into the wound (assuming you already exited), XJO up 85 points now.

GP


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## korrupt_1 (7 October 2008)

GreatPig said:


> And just to rub salt into the wound (assuming you already exited), XJO up 85 points now.
> 
> GP





yeh... got stopped out... lost 40pts... but.. eh... 'cost of business' 

theory was good... to go long on the speculation of rate cut based rally... but timing and entry really sucked...

who knew that the DJ was gonna tank 800pts over night then recover more than half of it??!!! blah... it's all bull$hit... 

anyway... i caught the ride up this morning and have more than made up for the loss overnight...  so in the end it worked out ok....

just need to perfect the entry timing...


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## Nicks (8 October 2008)

korrupt_1 said:


> just need to perfect the entry timing...




If you can do that atm, can you please read my Tarot cards?


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## Temjin (8 October 2008)

Don't know which thread to post this, but here we go. The "New" Stock Market Terms from Big Picture.

_A fun email circulating trading desks, worthwhile as an informal measure of sentiment:_
*CEO* --Chief Embezzlement Officer.

*CFO--* Corporate Fraud Officer.

*BULL MARKET* -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

*BEAR MARKET* -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

*VALUE INVESTING* -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

*P/E RATIO* -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

*BROKER* -- What my broker has made me.

*STANDARD & POOR *-- Your life in a nutshell.

*STOCK ANALYST* -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

*STOCK SPLIT* -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

*FINANCIAL PLANNER* -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

*MARKET CORRECTION* -- The day after you buy stocks.

*CASH FLOW* -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

*YAHOO* -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

*WINDOWS* -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

*INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR* -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

*PROFIT* -- An archaic word no longer in use.
​


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## Glen48 (8 October 2008)

The only way we will get close to a Profit  is in some Muslim country!!!


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## Green08 (8 October 2008)

Having just seen the riots in Thailand, they known how to get a message across, they may not win but boy are they out there.  Wonder when the USA residents will begin to turn on the these idiots at the Fed and Captiol Hill.


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## deadset (8 October 2008)

That email's spot on, though I didn't get to sell any Yahoo shares for $240, though maybe some got to sell some Fannie for $80.

Might need to pray like MC Hammer or even some laying of hands.

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I saw those riot guys and I thought, now is not the time to mix the non-exploding tear gas up.  About time they kicked that non-elected PAD riff raff off the street.


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## Glen48 (8 October 2008)

I read were Mr Fuld Lehman  Bro's CEO got a bunch of fives in the Lehman's Gym
when the workers found out they were no longer workers but suddenly made carton packers.


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