# Looking at predictions in hindsight



## Tyler Durden (17 January 2015)

I must admit, I am getting a bit sick of reading about predictions in the newspapers made by certain 'experts' about business, the economy, and finance, where they make headlines for making claims, but seems no one ever bothers to come back to them in time if they were wrong. People just seem to forget about it, remember only the correct calls, then these experts make headlines again with more predictions, and the cycle repeats.

So I thought it would be interesting to create a thread posting predictions made so that we can come back to it in the future and see how correct or how far off they were. I suppose the only rule I can think of is the prediction must have some sort of time frame, ie. x will happen within y time.

So I'll kick off:



> The world's largest asset manager BlackRock has warned of downside to come for the local currency, which could drop below US70 ¢ in the first half of 2015, despite a boost overnight thanks to the Swiss central bank scrapping its peg to the euro.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...hrough-us70162-blackrock-20150116-12rryo.html

Let's come back in June for this one to see where the AUD is at.

Feel free to post others you find


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## shouldaindex (17 January 2015)

80% of these people don't beat the market with their funds anyway.


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## tech/a (18 January 2015)

I read a fair amount of Macro economic books.

The Coming Bond Market Collapse Richard Pento.
Is one I'm just beginning.
Many others. I'll compile a list and place it up.


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## Tyler Durden (18 January 2015)

tech/a said:


> I read a fair amount of Macro economic books.
> 
> The Coming Bond Market Collapse Richard Pento.
> Is one I'm just beginning.
> Many others. I'll compile a list and place it up.




Thanks tech, looking forward to it.


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## tech/a (18 January 2015)

*Top Stocks 2014 Martin Roth.*
Id like to see how they went all 140 odd---when I get time I'll have a look.

*The Crisis of Crowding Ludwig Chincarin*---written at the time of the GFC and a great explanation of the mess of Ugly models. Lots of predictions I have to look for.

*The Demographic Cliff Harry S Dent*---well known for his predictions his most notable the demise of the Japanese economy in the 90s.

*The Great Crash Ahead Harry S Dent* Lots of ammo here.

*The Next Boom Jack Plunkett*---one of them has to be right!

Will take a while to sort through.

Unfortunately these guys don't put a reference to PREDICTIONS in their Page Indexes---would be much easier!


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## CanOz (18 January 2015)

tech/a said:


> *Top Stocks 2014 Martin Roth.*
> Id like to see how they went all 140 odd---when I get time I'll have a look.
> 
> *The Crisis of Crowding Ludwig Chincarin*---written at the time of the GFC and a great explanation of the mess of Ugly models. Lots of predictions I have to look for.
> ...




Tech i think you would like the Podcast series by Micheal Covel, he tends to have allot of authors (Radge included) on there discussing all sorts of things including trend following, economics...i think Dent has been on there three times...

Look for it on your iPad under podcasts or perhaps you've already found it when Nick was on it (twice). He's in Saigon this year and he is very actively interviewing....sometimes two a week.

CanOz


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## McLovin (18 January 2015)

Harry Dent, living proof that even a broken clock is right twice a day...



> In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40,000, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would reach 13,000 - 20,000. In late 2006 he revised his forecasts to much lower levels, estimating the Dow would reach 16,000 - 18,000 and the NASDAQ 3,000 - 4,000. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14,000 - 15,000 by the end of the year. It ended 2006 at 12,463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at 13,264, again significantly lower than Dent's revised prediction of 15,000 by early 2008. Since then, the Dow crossed 14,000 in late 2007 before retreating.
> His 2011 book goes on to suggest consumer spending will begin to plummet in 2012 with the Dow bottoming out somewhere between 3,000 and 5,600 in 2014. After hitting bottom, stocks will experience a mini-rally in 2015-2017 before falling into a final bottom during the 2019-2023 period, when the 45-50 age group troughs because the U.S. birth rate reached its own low in 1973.[3]




He's a failed fund manager who makes outrageous predictions because it sells books.


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## pixel (18 January 2015)

I recently found Ravi Batra's bestseller _The Great Depression of 1990_ in a Good Sammies bargain bin. Read it in hindsight - if for no other reason than amusement.

http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=marketing_papers offers a striking review, the rationale of which can be applied to the bulk of "predictions": 







> Abstract
> The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction in the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a great disaster, and include a formula for redemption. If the disaster occurs, you can say, "I told you so." If it doesn't occur, you say, "It is good that they listened to my advice. I saved them." How can you lose? When I first saw this book, it occurred to me that it was a hoax


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## McLovin (18 January 2015)

pixel said:


> I recently found Ravi Batra's bestseller _The Great Depression of 1990_ in a Good Sammies bargain bin. Read it in hindsight - if for no other reason than amusement.
> 
> http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=marketing_papers offers a striking review, the rationale of which can be applied to the bulk of "predictions":




By making ridiculous "predictions" they are pretty much guaranteed to get media exposure. Every time Harry Dent pontificates about Australian property he's on the front page of the papers. If you earn your living by selling books that's not a bad thing to have.


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## Tyler Durden (31 January 2015)

Some predictions:



> The Australian sharemarket could move as much as 10 per cent up or down over the coming year, but will probably end 2015 close to where it is now, Fairfax Media's latest economic survey shows.
> 
> The sharemarket, trading at about 5500, could dive to 4950 by June 30 and 4800 by the end of the year, the bears said.
> 
> The bulls, on the other hand, tipped the market to reach 6100 by June 30 and stay at that level for the rest of the year.






> For the sharemarket outlook, the chief bear was Monash University academic Jakob Madsen, who tipped the market would fall to 5000 mid-year and 4800 by year's end.






> Among the other responses, Mark Crosby from Melbourne Business School predicted the sharemarket would reach 5100 by June 30 and 5000 by December 31.






> The economist with the Australian Manufacturing Workers' Union, Tom Skladzien, also tipped a lower market - 5200 by June 30 and 5357 by December 31.






> Shane Oliver, chief economist with AMP Capital, tipped the market would reach 5550 by June 30 and 5700 by December 31.






> Besa Deda, economist with St George Bank, also tipped a modest rise in the ASX200 to 5600 by June 30 and 5800 by December 31.






> Shane Garrett, economist with the Housing Industry Association, was bearish on the market, predicting 5045 by June 30 and 4825 by December 31.






> BT Financial Group chief economist Chris Caton said the market would rise to 5600 by mid-year and 5800 by year's end.






> David Bassanese, chief economist with BetaShares, said the ASX200 would rise to 5650 by June 30 and 5750 by December 31.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...t-year-tipped-for-shares-20150130-131qlf.html


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## Tyler Durden (12 February 2015)

Found one today:



> Macquarie analysts are forecasting Commonwealth Bank shares are on track to trade within a whisker of $100 in a year's time, saying yield-hungry investors will be drawn to its rising dividends and reliable profit growth.
> 
> After CBA notched up a $4.62 billion first-half profit on Wednesday, Macquarie analysts led by Mike Wiblin have lifted their 12-month share price target for the country's biggest bank to $99.
> 
> Credit Suisse analysts have also increased their price target for CBA to $96, on the back of this week's strong earnings performance.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...es-to-reach-99-in-a-year-20150212-13cjqr.html

CBA closed at $91.18 today.


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## Tyler Durden (2 March 2015)

> Asset bubbles in shares and property could burst in the next six to 18 months, according to one of the country's more bearish investment experts, who is warning baby boomers that their retirement savings are at risk.
> 
> Roger Montgomery of Montgomery Asset Management believes asset bubbles are likely to pop in the near future and that "there is a real chance that baby boomer retirement plans may sink thanks to their inability to avoid repeating the investment mistakes of their past."
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-boom-is-about-to-go-bust-20150302-13s8ua.html


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## rimtas (2 March 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> Some predictions:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Wow, so many bullish signals... If it persists like this, ASX will climb relentlessly, turning them all to bulls in the end.


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## Tyler Durden (16 March 2015)

> Interest rates could actually be increased later in the year because of the stimulus provided by the falling Australian dollar, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Saul Eslake.
> 
> Eslake tips the Australian dollar, currently at 76.4 US cents, will fall to 73 US cents in December and 68 US cents by the end of 2016.
> 
> In a research note, Eslake said the Reserve Bank would cut rates in May to 2 per cent. But after that, the Bank would raise rates to 2.25 per cent in December and 2.5 per cent in February 2016.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-miners-lead-asx-lower-20150316-3s73n.html


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## Bintang (17 March 2015)

> Perth property is headed for a prolonged slump
> 
> _Our reading of key metrics suggests that Perth property values are likely to end this year below where they started the year._
> SIMON PRESSLEY managing director of Propertyology




http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...ded-for-a-prolonged-slump-simon-pressley.html


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## Bintang (17 March 2015)

I like this one. Will the Fed raise interest rates this year?



> I believe were we to see even a one quarter point rise in official rates, our financial markets will implode in less than a week’s time.  Higher rates will throw the $1 quadrillion+ derivatives market so far offside, the credit freeze up in late 2008 will not even be an appetizer but mere crackers to the main dish we will be served.




Bill Holter, http://blog.milesfranklin.com/charlie-brown-and-higher-interest-rates


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## Tyler Durden (17 March 2015)

Bintang said:


> I like this one. Will the Fed raise interest rates this year?
> 
> 
> 
> Bill Holter, http://blog.milesfranklin.com/charlie-brown-and-higher-interest-rates




If interest rates were to be increased, wouldn't it only make things difficult for the cut off of people who could only afford the previously lowered interest rate? The people who had borrowed on an interest rate before it got lowered would still be able to afford their repayments?


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## Bintang (17 March 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> If interest rates were to be increased, wouldn't it only make things difficult for the cut off of people who could only afford the previously lowered interest rate? The people who had borrowed on an interest rate before it got lowered would still be able to afford their repayments?




Could be. The reason I like this prediction so much is the time frame which Bill Holter attaches to it ... that is less than ONE week.!


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## tech/a (17 March 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> If interest rates were to be increased, wouldn't it only make things difficult for the cut off of people who could only afford the previously lowered interest rate? The people who had borrowed on an interest rate before it got lowered would still be able to afford their repayments?




Interest rates are Raised or lowered to stimulate or slow down economies.
What people do with borrowings at each time is for them to discover *THEIR RISK*.


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## Bintang (18 March 2015)

Some property price predictions from BIS Shrapnel:

*Sydney* house prices will rise 20 per cent over the next two years, pushing the median house price well above $1 million by June 2017

...... market dynamics will drive a 14 per cent surge in *Brisbane* house prices over the next two years to June 2017.

In *Perth*, the weakening mining-led economy will drive property prices down three per cent over the next two years to June 2017.

In *Melbourne*, house prices will barely keep pace with inflation ...... rising a cumulative five per cent between June 2015 and June 2017. 

*Adelaide* house prices will rise just three per cent.

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resi...t-two-years-says-bis-shrapnel-20150317-1m0tdg


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## nth brisbanite (18 March 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> Found one today:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




There are now predictions that share price for CBA is going to very soon go above $100.  Can't remember source.


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## Tyler Durden (18 March 2015)

Bintang said:


> *Sydney* house prices will rise 20 per cent over the next two years, pushing the median house price well above $1 million by June 2017




I guess anyone hoping for a crash would like to hear this, since crashes happen when people don't expect it.


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## Bintang (18 March 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> I guess anyone hoping for a crash would like to hear this, since crashes happen when people don't expect it.




This one will certainly be interesting to watch.
The thread has quite a good list now of some 'bold' predictions with fairly clear time frames.
But can we keep track of them?
Is there some better way of organising them on this forum so they don't get lost as the thread slows down and drifts to the bottom of the thread pile?


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## Tyler Durden (19 March 2015)

Bintang said:


> This one will certainly be interesting to watch.
> The thread has quite a good list now of some 'bold' predictions with fairly clear time frames.
> But can we keep track of them?
> Is there some better way of organising them on this forum so they don't get lost as the thread slows down and drifts to the bottom of the thread pile?




lol don't worry, this thread is on the top of my 'watch' list


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## Tyler Durden (25 March 2015)

50% chance of a recession by 2017:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...17-top-bond-manager-says-20150325-1m76db.html

Not much of a 'bold' prediction...I mean, I can say there's 50% chance of _anything_ happening.


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## So_Cynical (30 March 2015)

Not so much a prediction as a great call form Bell Directs Julia Lee.



			
				https://www.belldirect.com.au said:
			
		

> Shares are looking cheap! - *03 April 2009*
> 
> Today I'll run through where the bargains in the market are at the moment and why this is being called the shopping spree of a lifetime.
> 
> ...




This was like 2 weeks after the market bottom...shes very upbeat, and using my favorite word - Comfortable. 

https://www.belldirect.com.au/shareschool/articles/1112/cheap.html


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## sptrawler (31 March 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> Not so much a prediction as a great call form Bell Directs Julia Lee.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So what are you saying, that was a 2009 post, are you pushing her product? or what?


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## Craton (31 March 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> Not so much a prediction as a great call form Bell Directs Julia Lee.
> 
> 
> 
> ...






sptrawler said:


> So what are you saying, that was a 2009 post, are you pushing her product? or what?




Is there any reason for the barb SP?
The title of this thread is "Looking a predictions in hindsight". Simples.


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## Bintang (31 March 2015)

Only 2 weeks to wait for this one
James Turk on King World News. (will any of KWN’s doomer predictions ever come true?)

*Greece To Default Before April 14, Sending Shockwaves Around The World!*
_If Greece can’t pay, it would be a default, which in turn will trigger acceleration clauses in Greece’s other debt obligations that would require immediate repayment of those debts too.  That is when Greece blows up and sends shockwaves around the globe, which will particularly rock the ECB as well as with the remaining depositors in Greek banks.  But I think Greece will actually blow up before April 14th.
_


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## sptrawler (31 March 2015)

Craton said:


> Is there any reason for the barb SP?
> The title of this thread is "Looking a predictions in hindsight". Simples.




Appologies, I get it now.


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## Wysiwyg (17 April 2015)

Van Tharp and his "secular bear market". Comment posted this year about his year 2000 bear market belief. After reading his book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom in 2009 I admit I believed this guy for awhile that it was a secular bear market. I believe his "definition" is B.S.



> Are We Still in A Secular Bear Market?
> 
> by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
> 
> ...


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## Bintang (18 April 2015)

Bintang said:


> Only 2 weeks to wait for this one
> James Turk on King World News. (will any of KWN’s doomer predictions ever come true?)
> 
> *Greece To Default Before April 14, Sending Shockwaves Around The World!*
> ...




The date was very specific on this one so I guess we can call it a FAIL.


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## Tyler Durden (18 April 2015)

Bintang said:


> The date was very specific on this one so I guess we can call it a FAIL.




lol yes, the specific nomination of an exact date  may have undone the author, but it seems Greece is now worrying some people (or at least, making it into the news):



> US stocks have tumbled on fresh worries about a Greek debt default as US President Barack Obama called on Greece to enact reforms.
> 
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 279.47 points (1.54 per cent) to 17,826.30 on Friday.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/us-stocks-tumble-on-greece-fears-20150417-1mns7c.html

Wonder why I didn't read about the 14 April date in the news?


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## Tyler Durden (13 October 2015)

> The best forecaster of the Australian dollar isn't swayed by the recent surge in the currency, predicting it will fall back below US70 ¢ by year-end.
> 
> For Konrad Bialas, a foreign-exchange strategist in Warsaw at TMS Brokers, the bulk of the Aussie's depreciation is behind it after the currency dropped 20 per cent in the 12 months through September and touched a six-year low of US68.96 ¢ on September 7. Don't expect a rally though, according to Bialas, who estimates it will end this year at US69 ¢, 6 per cent lower than its close in New York on Friday. The currency will recover to US71 ¢ in the final quarter of 2016, he predicts.




http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...nk-below-us70-by-yearend-20151011-gk6kqj.html


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