# Long Term Investors Sound Off Here



## dennisll (16 May 2006)

Hello All,

Noticed that majority of the forum participants are short term traders.  Just interested to know who among here are long term investors.  If you are a long term investor and you don't mind, could you answer the following questions:

1. Investing since when?
2. Typical hold time per stock?
3. What is your strategy?
4. What are your annual returns (including dividends, if possible)?

If you have anything else to add, please feel free.

Cheers,

Dennis


----------



## LPA (16 May 2006)

Well, I've only been in the game for just over a month but I see myself as a long term investor.  I'm not too interested in having to watch the markets all day every day and stress out over daily/weekly trends (although I'm paying close attention to the last few days as a learning exercise).  I look forward to hearing any tips from long term investors 

Also, if you were investing really long term (say around 20 years) are stocks really the way to go?  Considering that you won't get much interest out of them other than dividends...if you put that money into an investment fund and compounded you would probably be much better off yes?  Although having said that you should of course have some long term stocks to diversify....opinions?


----------



## tech/a (16 May 2006)

Time.------approx 4 yrs but trading for 11
Time held--Varies but "Average" hold time is around a year for winning trades and average 49 days for losing trades.
Strategy---I have 3 mechanical trading methods,1 Techtrader is fully disclosed discussed and traded on the link below,Results are posted weekly.
Returns----It is designed and traded as a Margin lending method so leveraged at around 2.5:1.Returns each year rise exponentially as leverage and compounding kick in.
But as youll see in the results link the method started with $30K initial capital  and $70k was on loan.Last week total capital was $346,000.
So give back the bank (Bankers Trust in my case) $70K and we have a net profit of $276,000 which represents 920% in 4 yrs. + dividends less brokerage and interest (These pretty well balance out).

Results are similar for my T/T portfolio.
Its never meant to be the Mechanical Trading method of the century but one that is full disclosed and one that many use to build their own from or use as a benchmark.
I know of 16 people who keep in contact with me who use the method or a close hybrid and all report similar returns to the base method being traded.

Anyway the link is below there are 100s of pages of info to wade through.
Systems testing software and time spent becoming proficient is well worth it.

I use Metastock/Tradesim---but Amibroker is very good.

Results
http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000029

Questions and answers
http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000002;p=32

A Complete guide
http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=74;t=000024

You'll have to register to be able to veiw.


----------



## Jay-684 (16 May 2006)

I use both long term and short term holds, depending on the stock

Generally the companies with smaller market caps I usually hold for less than 6 months, while there are some companies like CBA, BHP, FGL which I have held for up to 10 years now. I simply keep them to diversify and prevent the huge CGT bill


----------



## GreatPig (16 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> $30K initial capital and $70k was on loan.Last week total capital was $346,000



That's a gain of about 36% pa ignoring the margin (ie. $100K up to $346K in 4 years), depending on exactly how close to 4 years it is.

I've only been running an investment portfolio for about 18 months.

Typical hold time is hard to say, as I haven't really bought and sold enough yet to give a decent sample.

My strategy has been very simple. Mostly it's been look for well established up trends, whack a trend line under them, and buy when the price has been close to the trend line. Sell when it's dipped significantly below that line, or if it's shot way above the line, when it's looked like reversing back to the line.

I made a small capital loss last financial year, but this year has been going well. It's a bit hard to calculate an exact return since I haven't been using a constant capital base (the amount of capital invested has changed a lot during the year). However, if I average the amount of capital invested each day, information which I have in a file, and use that as the capital base, then this financial year is up about 28% to date, which annualises to about 32.5% pa (not sure if averaging this way is really correct though).

Using the same capital base average, dividends add about another 4.7% excluding franking credits. Another 1.5% for the franking credits. This is to date, but I don't know that there'll be any more dividends this year anyway.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Julia (16 May 2006)

LPA said:
			
		

> Well, I've only been in the game for just over a month but I see myself as a long term investor.  I'm not too interested in having to watch the markets all day every day and stress out over daily/weekly trends (although I'm paying close attention to the last few days as a learning exercise).  I look forward to hearing any tips from long term investors
> 
> Also, if you were investing really long term (say around 20 years) are stocks really the way to go?  Considering that you won't get much interest out of them other than dividends...if you put that money into an investment fund and compounded you would probably be much better off yes?  Although having said that you should of course have some long term stocks to diversify....opinions?




Hello LPA

Re your last paragraph above: i.e. "are stocks really the way to go?"

   Shares have always out performed every other asset class over time, particularly your suggested time frame of 20 years.

Your phrase     "Considering that you won't get much interest out of them other than dividends......"  sounds as though you are (a) not taking account of the franking credits, and , more importantly (b) don't seem to be factoring in the increase in the share price.  
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your suggestion.
What sort of "investment fund" were you thinking of?
Compounding interest is of course valuable, but - other than capital gain on property - it's hard to beat good shares as a growth investment.  Just take a look at a chart for, e.g. BHP, UTB, RCD and any number of others to see how the share price has risen in about the last two years, let alone 20 years.


I'm essentially a long term investor,but that doesn't mean I'm going to hold on to anything which is not performing.  Mostly prefer the Top 100, looking primarily for growth at this stage.  Had some shares pre 1987 and was lucky enough to get out before that crash.  Then went for property.  Been back with shares for about the last five years.

Julia


----------



## Sean K (16 May 2006)

Been in the market 12 years since 1994. Little brother is an MBA, financial planner, stockbroker, and now GM of research at a financial institution and he started me off with a couple of suggestions which did ok. Now I take suggestions but go it alone. (I can't blame him when they belly up).

Built portfolio over time through solid companies with the aim to be a Buffet and never sell. *Just buy the right companies and hold.* I've experimented over time with species and was burnt minorly in the Tech Wreck. Anyone remember EISA? Another specie I have bought and sold since 95 is AEX. It's been a great ride.

For the first 5 years made about 10-15% a year, next 4 lost 10-15% and have made about 30-40% the last 3. 

Started a Margin Loan about 5 years ago and have taken the LVR from 65% 3 years ago back to 30% now, waiting for a good opportunity. 

I have been lucky in that I have I deployed overseas with the UN on a couple of operations which was a financial windfall and it was all put into stocks just before this bull run. 

Portfolio is 40% managed funds, 30% blue chip, 20% small cap and 10% trading/specie. I rarely sell because I think I buy the right stocks in the first place, and while there are economic cyles, all I do is buy into companies in the sector that is about to come good. Hopefully. 

I now hold almost 50 stocks which is too many, and it takes quite a bit of time to keep track of them all and do all the paperwork. Tax time is a nightmare! Then, I have to keep track of everything on my watch list that thanks to sites like this runs the length of my arm.

I am now 37 and plan to retire by 45, (depending on AEX - If DD gets up, I'll retire immediately) and sail around the world for a living.


----------



## GreatPig (16 May 2006)

There's a good chart of the All Ords since 1900 on the ASX here.

Even though it's a bit hard to see the levels exactly, it was 10 in about 1905. So in about 100 years it has gone from 10 to 5170, which is an average annual gain of about 6.45%.

And compared to the 1987 crash, the rate of increase now looks positively slow.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## zhuo (17 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Time.------approx 4 yrs but trading for 11
> Time held--Varies but "Average" hold time is around a year for winning trades and average 49 days for losing trades.
> Strategy---I have 3 mechanical trading methods,1 Techtrader is fully disclosed discussed and traded on the link below,Results are posted weekly.
> Returns----It is designed and traded as a Margin lending method so leveraged at around 2.5:1.Returns each year rise exponentially as leverage and compounding kick in.
> ...




Wow, congrats!

How did you learn about investing and trading in such a short period of time to be so successful? Could you perhaps point us to resources you've used other than the ones you've given already?

Could you also elaborate a bit more on your trading strategies? What are the 3 mechanical trading methods that you use?

I can't imagine myself borrowing 70k with not much experience to trade. What gave you the confidence to do it?

James


----------



## tech/a (17 May 2006)

James.

Been trading for 11 yrs.
Best resource was/has been Nick Radge.
Nicks approach is simple yet complex in that he has shown me (and many others) what actually makes profitable trading.

Interestingly its NOT the analysis just as a profitable business isnt JUST the product or service.When you get your head around the "Business of trading" it does become simple.
*So by far the short cut to my success * was/is to seek out Nick and do a course or 2 and definately buy his book.

The 3 methods are the one publically disclosed.
A hybrid of the original method which I trade but alter from time to time,currently working on composite charting as full portfolio entry and exit stratagies.
The last is a Hybrid of the weekly method designed by Stevo on Reefcap.

Confidence.
When I began work on Techtrader I was like most everyone else,had some great winners and bloody horrible losses.Knew there was money out there for the taking but not how to formulate a methodical way of getting my fair share.Systems trading allowed me formulate the Business of trading in a way I could measure and control.---Still does and I still trade a small amount in a discretionary manner---and making a profit,which has more to do about the bullish market than expertise!!

I'm probably older than you seem to be older than most here---52.
I have a company,more property than most,and trading/investing in Shares is simply an extension of my investment plan.I have no plans to retire as I would be bored out of my head.But do travel extensively and will continue to do so.


----------



## RichKid (17 May 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> James.
> 
> Been trading for 11 yrs.
> Best resource was/has been Nick Radge.
> ...




Anyone who's interested in some of Nick's views can search for his stuff on ASF, including reviews of his book 'Adaptive Analysis', just use the search tool, you'll get an idea of what he's on about....not as many posts on systems trading.


----------



## bullmarket (17 May 2006)

Hi dennis

I've been investing for about 20 years now and have always been an investor and not a 'trader'.

A few years ago I took (actually was forced   )  early retirement after being given a very generous retrenchment package.  Since then my number 1 priority has been income.....as long as the quarterly and half yearly dividends/distributions keep coming in mrs bullmarket is happy and if she is happy then I am happy..  

Regarding my strategy, basically I use fundamental analysis to identify potential investments and then technical analysis to help time buy points.

Nowadays we just do what we please when we please....about a 6 weeks  ago we went away for a week and now mrs bullmarket has got itchy feet again and we're heading off again next week for a week.

I get access to my super in a few years time and then we will re-assess our financial set up and 'to-do' list  

cheers

bullmarket


----------



## LPA (17 May 2006)

Kennas - retiring at 45 is my goal as well   I'm only 24 at the moment so I've got a lot to learn and a ways to go, but hopefully starting early will make it a bit less stressful   

And in regards to me not seeing share price going up as interest....I guess I should.  I just don't see shares as gaining interest until you sell them, if you're in it for the long term and holding then you are getting dividends and more assets to get loans and such with.  Does this make more sense?  Or am I still seeing it wrong even if you hold the stocks?  Don't get me wrong, I can definately see that the big money is to be made in the stock market...but if you just wanted to put say 20k away for 20 years then wouldn't a nice compounding high results managed fund that buys/sells stock on your behalf be a nicer option than doing all the work yourself?  Definately as part of a diversified portfolio anyway.  But again, I am really new to all this so just trying to get my head around it all....thanks for any help/advice you can give 

Here's to the LONG TERM


----------



## dennisll (17 May 2006)

Great posts from everyone so far!  Thanks a lot everyone.  Let's keep this thread going.  I'm sure there are still a lot of silent long term investors lurking out there.  

It is nice to see that the term "Long Term Investing" does not necessarily imply "buy and hold" as most people (that I know of, anyway) believe.  From the posts we've seen so far, it is fairer to say that as long as you are investing for the long haul, regardless of technique/strategy, you definitely are a long term investor.


----------



## Knobby22 (17 May 2006)

I'm a long term investor.
Generally buy and hold for at least a year and like to hold longer.
Up 36% so far this year, 19.5% last year, 39% the year before that, includes dividends.

Investing since 1992 and have been improving.

Strategy is 
(1)to follow long term trends (e.g. oil supply problems were obvious 10 years ago)
(2) invest in well managed companies that have growth and advantages e.g. CSL
(3) Change into new trends e.g. mining boom

(4) Try to find smaller companies that will outperform big time. (this can be risky). 

I am improving all the time and am getting better however I know of investors who are more agressive and effective than myself and so consequently make more money in these great times.


----------

