# You Can Predict Any Market - Jeff Greenblatt



## tech/a (20 November 2007)

Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.

That word *PREDICT* is on the front cover and throughout the book.
That condition of *TIME* is the key ingredient in "Prediction".

Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis infact thats true for Fundamental as well.

Time to me has been that elusive component that I have thought impossible to analyse.

But some here---Waves,---Moggie when he was around were and are into the aspect of time. Although Ive not seen prediction mentioned.

The keys to this are Elliott,Fibonacci and *LUCAS* a less known french mathamatician who developed a set of numbers very similar to fib,
volume and position in context and then an application in *time.*

Those in black I know very little about but I know the combination of all the rest is very powerful.

If it is possible to combine time that can only be --well amazing.

Infact doing what I have considered for years to be IMPOSSIBLE.

Want the book at $200 a crack its here. In Melbourne
http://www.educatedinvestor.com.au/


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## ajoz (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*

I had a quick read through the preview of Chapter 6 and it certainly looks quite interesting.

Link to preview chapter of the book:
"http://www.fibonacciman.com/pdf/Greenblatt_PreviewChapter062707.pdf"

and a quotation from it:
"the idea behind stock selection is generally a game of sector rotation. You want to find a sector that is emerging and pick the strongest stocks of the group. Mind you, I’m not talking about the fundamental picture. *I suggest riding the coattails of the better stocks the big money players believe are the best stocks*."


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## SevenFX (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



ajoz said:


> I had a quick read through the preview of Chapter 6 and it certainly looks quite interesting.
> 
> Link to preview chapter of the book:
> "http://www.fibonacciman.com/pdf/Greenblatt_PreviewChapter062707.pdf"




Link above dead, Link below will get you there.
http://www.fibonacciman.com/pdf/Greenblatt_PreviewChapter062707.pdf

SevenFX


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## professor_frink (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



tech/a said:


> Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.
> 
> That word *PREDICT* is on the front cover and throughout the book.
> That condition of *TIME* is the key ingredient in "Prediction".
> ...




Have you read it all yet tech? I'd be curious to hear your full thoughts on it when you have. He did a 2 part series in the local trading rag, Your trading Edge a little while ago that I had read. Can't say that I was impressed enough to even consider spending $200 on his book. It seemed to be a case of throwing up all of the lucas and fib numbers he could find on multiple timeframes, and by the time you've factored in +/- 1 bar on all of timeframes to all of the numbers, it would have been nearly impossible for the market not to turn at one of them.


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## Timmy (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*

Tech,

In this post (OP of this thread above) and in another recent post at https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=225774&postcount=3

You say…

“Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis”

and

“Analysis is simply a setup which will either be proven or not”

If you have time could you elaborate please?


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## Timmy (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*

And hope I haven't hijacked your thread.:nono:

Here is a peace offering....interview with J. Greenblatt (the ads stop after 20 second, the interview starts after 1 minute).

http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/10185/1/Interview-with-Trader-Jeff-Greenblatt/Page1.html


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## tech/a (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



professor_frink said:


> Have you read it all yet tech? I'd be curious to hear your full thoughts on it when you have. He did a 2 part series in the local trading rag, Your trading Edge a little while ago that I had read. Can't say that I was impressed enough to even consider spending $200 on his book. *It seemed to be a case of throwing up all of the lucas and fib numbers he could find on multiple timeframes, and by the time you've factored in +/- 1 bar on all of timeframes to all of the numbers, it would have been nearly impossible for the market not to turn at one of them*.




Ah Prof a man of my very own convictions. My major arguement with the "predicive" arguement of Gann.
No I havent yet read it all only a couple of chapters. What I have read confirms that which I now use and concur with him in that it is consistent.
I havent gone far enough to critique. But will.I only get a few spare minutes to read.



> “Ive "been" (not yet convinced but impressed so far) a great believer that technical analysis is about proving or disproving analysis”
> 
> and
> 
> “Analysis is simply a setup which will either be proven or not”




I've never seen analysis as predictive---dont know that I will.
I think it was motorway who once wrote that he was happy to anticipate analysis.Thats where I fit I doubt even with good arguement that i'll ever view analysis any other way,as to do so is being finite,something I see as dangerous in trading!
My analysis gives me clues to where and when I can anticipate a buy and sell position in the market,it will then be proven correct or not.
What I do when the *NOT* comes to fruition will ultimately govern how profitable my trading will be when the analysis *IS* proven.


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## professor_frink (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



tech/a said:


> Ah Prof a man of my very own convictions. My major argument with the "predictive" argument of Gann.
> No I havent yet read it all only a couple of chapters. What I have read confirms that which I now use and concur with him in that it is consistent.
> I havent gone far enough to critique. But will.I only get a few spare minutes to read.




Look forward to a full review when you've finished it tech


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## Timmy (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



tech/a said:


> I've never seen analysis as predictive---dont know that I will.
> I think it was motorway who once wrote that he was happy to anticipate analysis.Thats where I fit I doubt even with good arguement that i'll ever view analysis any other way,as to do so is being finite,something I see as dangerous in trading!
> My analysis gives me clues to where and when I can anticipate a buy and sell position in the market,it will then be proven correct or not.
> What I do when the *NOT* comes to fruition will ultimately govern how profitable my trading will be when the analysis *IS* proven.




Thanks a lot Tech - appreciate that.  There is a lot in those words - going to go away and think them through.


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## wavepicker (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



tech/a said:


> Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.
> 
> That word *PREDICT* is on the front cover and throughout the book.
> That condition of *TIME* is the key ingredient in "Prediction".
> ...






Hello Tech,

I know of this book but have not read it in detail. Greenblatt shows charts where turning points correlate with Fibonacci or Lucas numbers, the trouble being that there are so many of these possibilities. Every high and low in the market is mathematically related to a previous point both in price and time. 

I see the Lucas numbers as another possibility in addition to the already popularized Fibonacci sequence. Sure we can get confluence at various degrees of trend of price bars using Fibonacci and Lucas numbers, but we can also get multiple clusters using the Fibonacci numbers alone and Fibonacci "twin numbers" i.e. 5+5=10 or 8+8 =16 etc. Then there is the use of "trading days" OR "Calendar Day" counts. The combinations are endless and yet they can all give you potential cycle points.

The only trouble with all this is, how do you separate the "significant" time points from many possibilities? I have always been a fan of using a method that REDUCES or narrows down the possibilities not INCREASE them and thus confuses you even more.


Cheers


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## nizar (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*



professor_frink said:


> It seemed to be a case of throwing up all of the lucas and fib numbers he could find on multiple timeframes, and by the time you've factored in +/- 1 bar on all of timeframes to all of the numbers, it would have been nearly impossible for the market not to turn at one of them.




Prof.
I share your view, and I'm looking forward to tech's full review.


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## zt3000 (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*

Isn't it all then a self furfilling prophecy ... if someone expects something to happen and then acts on it accordingly then in doing so will enact what is expected to occur. This then snowballs when many people do the same thing amplifying the effects.


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## tech/a (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*

Wow.

There must be far more who have expertise in Elliott/Fib Analysis than I ever thought.

Hell I only know of a handful of exponents out of 1000s of memebers aparently trading on this and other forums.


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## CanOz (20 November 2007)

*Re: You Can Predict Any Market-----Jeff Greenblatt*

I've been a bit of a fan of Jeff's for a little while now, after catching him here for free every so often:

http://www.commodityclassics.com

Check out the other guests as well and the archives. 

$200 is a bit rich though.

Looking forward to some more impressions of the book.

Cheers,


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## wavepicker (25 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> Recieved this edition only last night after waiting for new stock.
> 
> That word *PREDICT* is on the front cover and throughout the book.
> That condition of *TIME* is the key ingredient in "Prediction".
> ...





Gooday Tech,

What are your thoughts of this book to date? Are there any useful  fibonacci/Lucas strategies in this book that can be applied in a practical manner?

Cheers


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## tech/a (25 July 2008)

Waves.

Ive got it on the shelf and have only had a quick look through a couple of chapters.
Stuck it up in the library and have it like 10,000 other things on life's to do list.
Ive just started taking a day a week off to do my own thing when key staff aren't on holidays or ill. 
But from what Ive read looks practical---best way to describe it.

I'll have a more in depth browse on the W/E---have some time tomorrow and let you know.


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## tech/a (27 July 2008)

Of all the forms of analysis available--Elliott in my view is the leader in a technical sense. Waves has focused my resolve on completing the task of Reading Greenblatt. I thought then as I do so reporting findings and my own experiences and opinions on my use and findings relative to Elliott in general and where appropriate Greenblatt.

When reading any publication of interest I arm myself with a *YELLOW* Highlighter
Passages sentences and key words in context I highlight.
While this doesn't contribute to the re sale value of a book when reviewing you can re read a book very quickly. Another trick I use is *YELLOW* postal notes labelled with key issues--tabbing pages for very quick reference.

Geenblatt like myself categorises exponents as ACADEMICS and practical applicants. The question often asked is just how expert do I need to be in Elliott  for it to be of value to my trading.
To me its a matter of practical application---how can I apply it and how can I apply it without ambiguity.

All Patterns whether impulsive or corrective have their place and its the corrective patterns which cause much confusion. Particularly wave 4.
and ofcourse capitulation of Wave 5's.

Its important to understand the structure of corrective moves if for no other reason but to avoid being caught up in long term corrective moves which appear to have no structure. Being able to label them perfectly in my view is of less or no value to practical application of analysis to your trading---you just simply wouldnt get involved in such a move---well I wouldnt.

For those who want specifics on structures buy one of these books.
*(1) Dynamic Trading By Robert Miner
(2) This one*.

As I move forward it will be beneficial to become familiar with Fibonacci  and Lucas Number sequences. Whether you place credence on them or not.
My intent here is to simply bullet point Greenblatts points of interest which may or may not be specific to his findings. Much I present has been found by others than Greenblatt but important aspects to the practitioner.

*Bullet points
*
* 2 Basic patterns Impulsive and Corrective.
** Impulsive* are 5 wave sequences with the following RULES
(1) Wave 3 is NEVER the shortest.
(2) Wave 2 never retraces more than 99% of wave 1
(3) Wave 4 never overlaps the territory of wave 1
* Wave 3 may NOT necessarily be the LONGEST wave.
* If when counting waves you note one of the rules does NOT conform then there is something else happening so re veiw your count.

* Greenblatt has found the Wave 4 can and does often *SLIGHTLY* over lap into wave 1 territory so common sences should apply--a point or 2 he believes to be acceptable.
* Impulsive waves tend to follow alternation. A complex wave 2 will normally be followed by a simple wave 4 correction OR a long wave 1 will often bring a short wave 5. If a 5 wave set sees an extension of Wave 3 the next set may well see an extension in wave 5

** Corrective sequences.*
*Sharp corrections are 5-3-5 patterns
* You can recognise these as corrective moves as the violate the overlap rule.
* They are very choppy.
* Corrective moves are characterised by an average lower volume than the prevailing trend. (So corrections in a bear market seeing LOW VOLUME are highly likely to fail---this is a corrective sign! within the overall bear).
* Flat corrections are 3-3-5
* All legs tend to be equal length
* "C" waves are the most violent (Just watch the XJO if it now corrects lower!!).
*Triangles appear in  4 th wave impulse moves and "B" waves in corrective moves (You can see the importance of knowing "WHERE" you are in the life of a trade!)
* 4 Th waves are difficult to count.
* *Triangles* are the next to last move in a pattern.
* Most triangles will complete in the correct Fib or Lucas time bars! Specific interest to you Waves?
* Structure patterns should have a "proper" look in other words structured.
* Diagonal triangles that usually form a completion of a wave 5 long or short side  often overlap wave 4 and 1

Hope this is of value and I will post up more as I go further on.
Comments and input from others most welcome.

*One last thing
While it may seem daunting with the feeling of how on earth can I remember all this----practice at labelling and looking at charts over the years will have you seeing these structures and patterns WITHOUT thinking. Do you now think everytime you hop in your car (Well of course we all do) but generally its automatic---over time Elliott will become the same.*


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## wavepicker (27 July 2008)

Hello Tech,

Have been considering this one for a while . I have heard much positive news around on the web, but these days you just don't know till buy!!

Thanks very much for your opinion on this text, looks l might look into it. 
I also like to use fib twins, i.e 3+3=6, 5+5=10, 8+8=16.... etc Also Lucas no's derived from Fib no additions i.e 5+2=7,3+8=11, 13+5=18, 21+8=29....etc, 
Another book I was considering is:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/007149815X...iveASIN=007149815X&adid=06WAE6CESZ4EERVMN571&

by Carolan Boroden.

Both her and Greenblatt feature Fibs quite heavily in their analysis, but Greenblatt quite heavily into EW as well from your decription.

Cheers


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## It's Snake Pliskin (28 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> Of all the forms of analysis available--Elliott in my view is the leader in a technical sense. Waves has focused my resolve on completing the task of Reading Greenblatt. I thought then as I do so reporting findings and my own experiences and opinions on my use and findings relative to Elliott in general and where appropriate Greenblatt.
> 
> When reading any publication of interest I arm myself with a *YELLOW* Highlighter
> Passages sentences and key words in context I highlight.
> ...




Tech,

I use any highlighter. Yellow usually fades after a year or two. Pink and orange tend to help think more positively. 

Thanks for the review of the book.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (28 July 2008)

wavepicker said:


> Hello Tech,
> 
> Have been considering this one for a while . I have heard much positive news around on the web, but these days you just don't know till buy!!
> 
> ...




Waves,

What are fib twins?


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## wavepicker (28 July 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Waves,
> 
> What are fib twins?




Hello Snake, 

Another name for fibonacci no doubles.

s o if we have a sequence : 3,5,8,13,21 etc,
the doubles are : 6,10,16,26,42 etc

Cheers


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## tech/a (28 July 2008)

*Waves.*

This is one of the things that bothers me with Cycles and Confluence of Numbers.
You end up with a chart which has Fib Numbers,Lucas Numbers,Fib Doubles,(why not Lucas doubles?) birthdays,and Star signs.
The chart ends up full of Squares/Diamonds and levels and more degrees than Marble Bar.
Many converge in an area.
Plotted from Pivot highs Pivot lows,Minor swing lows and highs---next door!!!
Price invariably hits some of these,cant help it there is so many of them.

Once hit its as easy as to find a reason why---to construct a compelling arguement.

BUT TO *PRACTICALLY* employ this analysis currently (As I'm still reading) in a meaningful way so as to trade with it just doesnt cut it---not yet anyway!
I'm proving/disproving on almost a daily basis.


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## wavepicker (28 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> *Waves.*
> 
> This is one of the things that bothers me with Cycles and Confluence of Numbers.
> You end up with a chart which has Fib Numbers,Lucas Numbers,Fib Doubles,(why not Lucas doubles?) birthdays,and Star signs.
> ...





True, Our job should be to narrow down the possibilities to prove/disprove our analysis, *NOT * create more possibilities as this adds to confusion.

As such, I use a combo of fixed/dynamic cycles as EW as a GUIDE only, if then we have *SIMPLE * fib relationshsips which  gel with the our analysis then great. If there appears not be any there no point trying to force the issue as you say with a mountain of possibilies.

Generally speaking when using fibs, I rely and look for mainly the 0.618 relationship clusters and discard the rest.

Cheers


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## It's Snake Pliskin (29 July 2008)

wavepicker said:


> Hello Snake,
> 
> Another name for fibonacci no doubles.
> 
> ...




Thanks Wavepicker.

Fib triples and quads are in theory possible then, not that I would use them.

Cheers...


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## It's Snake Pliskin (29 July 2008)

tech/a said:


> I'm proving/disproving on almost a daily basis.




Such is the journey.


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## tech/a (29 July 2008)

Have now managed to get a fair way into the book.

*When ever I read a tech book I'm always considering in my own mind.
(1) Application--Can I apply that being shown in my own trading.
(2) Simplicity---In application.
(3) Value---will it be of practical value.*

While there is much in this book that provokes thought--for me it doesn't satisfy the 3 principles above. Greenblatt himself makes it clear that application in real time is difficult--the end result not clear until the completion.

Unfortunately the number of "Possible" Fib and lucas counts are virtually endless.
Adding Ratio's/Square roots/Derivative roots and 144 Harmonic Vibration numbers.---whew! 
As are the points at which you can start your counts. Major and minor pivot highs and lows---and if thats not clear Greenblatt explains---you'll find better counts in lower time frames.

Going forward then you will be able to label your chart with 10s of "Points" of interest. You'll no doubt have clusters from time to time appearing.
While if you can be bothered or indeed have the time to count (Would be practical if trading say up to 30 stocks,10 would be better and any more wouldnt be practical.) there could be some map of direction if not critical points.

All like any analysis have to be proven and whilst in hindsite they look neat and tidy with all the 10s of other possibilities and clusters removed,in real life you end up "trying" to make a count fit.---easy to do once completed.

Sure you'll get hits and sure some will be excellent---but you'll get many that fail.

Greenblatt himself during an explaination of a chart noted that a turn in a chart DIDNT fit a count --BUT not to be daunted--- found the date as 10/8 8th day of tenth month---excellent---just put the 8 and 10 together at 108 and bang thats a Multiple of 144 harmonic (How I dont know) Page 38.

However there are some excellent "hints" I keep finding.
In Greenblatts words---which I find somewhat contradictory seeing his book is so detailed (Meaning point one only).

*(1)* The whole idea is not to be committed so much to the exact pattern at hand as it is to have a general idea of what we are dealing with--I certainly agree.
*(2)* Wave "B" s create the sentiment of the PRIOR trend and as such are normally short and powerful.
*(3)* Triangle waves or legs will have .618 or 1.618 ratios in them more often than not.
*(4)* When wave 4s over lap wave 1s this is a tip that this is a corrective move.
*(5)* Impulse waves are 5s 9s and 13s (13s rare)
Corrective legs are 3s 7s and 11s
*(6)* High to low and low to high cycles generally conform to Fib or lucas (I have observed this myself---Just look at the last rally of the ASX200 almost pefectly a 50% retracement!)
*(7)* Understand that waves rotate--high to high low to low.
*(8)* The very first failure of a move after a prolonged trend will often be the best opportunity.
*(9)* Buy pullbacks and sell spikes ONLY if you believe they are leading into a wave 3 or wave C.
*(10)* The best part of good moves tend to appear between 30-40 bars from a pivot (Major)---this is the meat. After 89 bars the likely hood of continuation tends to deminish.We start seeing divergences.
*(11)* In Bull markets the LOW to LOW cycle will dominate and in bear cycles the HIGH to HIGH.
*(12)* In choppy markets scale down your timeframe in trending markets open it up.

I'll keep reading and reporting. Helps gel the text.Gives me a use for those Yellow Highlights!


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## wavepicker (29 July 2008)

Thanks tech, your views/comments are very much appreciated.

Had a feeling that with this type of application one would end up with a myriad of clusters points. For me that is not the issue, but rather the *SIGNIFICENCE* of a cluster. How does one tell a high probability cluster from a dud? That the dilemma!

As you say the possibilities are endless.


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## tech/a (29 July 2008)

> but rather the SIGNIFICENCE of a cluster. How does one tell a high probability cluster from a dud? That the dilemma!




*Waves*

I think a very important observation.
Perhaps a clue can be found in Background and Position.
IE where it falls--clusters.
Rather than attempting to explain or find every single turn its the significant turns in all we are interested in---they wont fall at EVERY high or low..
Once identified taking advantage of patterns within the move in the direction of the move.
Further recognising that move to be a high probability extended move.

Right now we have a long term corrective move going on in the index as such these prolonged moves are going to be hard/rare (Being probably more descriptive) to find wave 3s and C's on the long side.
Perhaps wave 3s and C's on the short should be the focus particularly as this move is likely a completion of a larger pattern C in the index.

But knowing this we are more likely to find them in the shorter time frames.
As such this perhaps is where we need to be rather than looking at longer frames. Until of course they alter.
Mind you long term short has been wise.

I'll add more as I find it.
Good to have some feedback from someone who has been looking at this for a lot longer than I.


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## wavepicker (1 August 2008)

tech/a said:


> *Waves*
> 
> I think a very important observation.
> Perhaps a clue can be found in Background and Position.
> ...





Thanks tech, I may have been doing this for a while, but as you know learning never stops in this arena!

Greenblatts book along with other studies adds to ones arsenal. Having said that we are all looking for a simple strategy whereby we can trade the market. Unfortuntely that one strategy may not always be enough to keep you on the right side but that is not a problem as long as you know it's limitations.
Rather than adopt one strategy to trade I cover much ground and group an number of simplistic stategies and have now come to know which is the best tool to use for me in a  given market situation.

EW can give one an edge over conventional analsyis in that it's an objective strategy and as you say it's simple rules and guidelines can help one prove/disprove a probable scenario. It does this by analysis of price level , pattern, and wave count.

The one element that is lacking is TIME, which IMO is half of the equation and that is why I have asked for your opinion thus far on Greenblatts work.

Your comments to date have been much appreciated

Cheers


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## Frank D (2 August 2008)

_‘Subjective trading analysis’ is the perception or point of view, which 
is influenced by a reoccurring bias or experience. It is unique only to 
the individual trading analyst, which is more often than not illusory to
 the majority. Sadly, this is where most trading methodologies reside.

‘Objective trading analysis’ on the other hand is based on 
observable phenomena; that is presented factually for all to see. It’s not
 the perception or thought of something occurring, but the 
independent probability of something likely to occur. *Objective 
Analysis can’t exist if both Time and Price are separated and are
 completely independent of one another; both need to be part of the 
same trading model.*_

*The trader Trading.....*


Personally I know where Elliot Wave resides, and it's certainly not an Objective trading model


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## wavepicker (2 August 2008)

Frank D said:


> [I
> Personally I know where Elliot Wave resides, and it's certainly not an Objective trading model




Each to their own Frank.....


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## tcoates (2 August 2008)

(Knowing little about EW, except what I have picked up here and here and currently looking at "Dynamic Trader" which is EW based and does include chapter(s) on time analysis. (Even Nick R., in one monthly charts on the XAO mentioned wave 4 being twice as long as wave 2 - indicating a flat market over next few years.) That being the case, doesn't EW include time analysis. and if so, what part of this is not objective?

And if I wrong on EW regarding time, can some EW person indicate what componts does cover (if more than just price)?

And it the market were to follow certain rules re price and time, then this would be the holy grail we are all looking for. As such, it is game of probabilities?

Forever the student/learner,
Tim


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