# Free Futures & Implied Volatility charts for commodities



## wayneL (2 May 2006)

I don't suppose many trade futures options here, but FYI I have collated a resource of IV charts for all the liquid futures contracts HERE 

CHECK OUT SILVER & COPPER IV'S... Oh to have big Kohunas!


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## markrmau (2 May 2006)

*Re: Free IV charts for commodities*

Thanks for that Wayne. Will you be updating them from time to time?

About the 60% IV for silver, copper and NG.

What do you read from this?

Would it be fair to say that silver ad copper could correct to the downside because there has been such a run up, and NG could correct to the upside as it has fallen so far from it's peak?

Or can we only say that the market is expecting a further bumpy ride, and no-one is willing to take a punt as to which way they would go?


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## wayneL (3 May 2006)

*Re: Free IV charts for commodities*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Thanks for that Wayne. Will you be updating them from time to time?




markrmau, through a miracle of technology (and bandwidth robbery  ) they will update automatically every day  



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> About the 60% IV for silver, copper and NG.
> 
> What do you read from this?
> 
> ...




I wouldn't be willing to suggest that IV figures give any clues as to direction, in and of themselves. But they surely can be an indicator under certain circumstances.

With NG and SI, the IV's merely reflect the current statistical volatility. So no clues from IV there really.

With HG (copper) however, SV is only around 33%. So IV is WAAAAY up there. What does it mean? Could mean muppets are buying copper options with ears pinned back. It could mean writers are covering their @rse and demanding high premiums. It could mean a turn in sentiment. It could be all of those.

For me, it means stay away from copper for the moment, until some really good signal turns up, like a 2x top or something.

What we have here is an "El Toro Grande" and I agree with Stu Johnston, who coined the phrase; I wanna see some rock solid resistance before going over the top with this one   

Cheers


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## markrmau (3 May 2006)

*Re: Free IV charts for commodities*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> markrmau, through a miracle of technology (and bandwidth robbery  ) they will update automatically every day



Great stuff. Thanks for that.



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> With HG (copper) however, SV is only around 33%. So IV is WAAAAY up there. What does it mean? Could mean muppets are buying copper options with ears pinned back. It could mean writers are covering their @rse and demanding high premiums. It could mean a turn in sentiment. It could be all of those.




I see. With copper rising almost 50% in a little under 2 months  , I guess it isn't surprising.

Thanks, Mark.


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## markrmau (3 May 2006)

*Re: Free IV charts for commodities*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> I see. With copper rising almost 50% in a little under 2 months



Hmmm. Copper doing the opposite to gold on comex ATM. Very bearish for copper if it looses it's USD 'safe haven' status.


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## wayneL (3 May 2006)

*Re: Free IV charts for commodities*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Hmmm. Copper doing the opposite to gold on comex ATM. Very bearish for copper if it looses it's USD 'safe haven' status.




Looking as though there is some resistance there at last.

Just been looking at seasonal and COT data and there is nothing convincing there.

I'd still prefer a reasonable selloff and a retest of the highs before I'd consider a trade with any sort of probability.  

One thing to note... these commodity markets are not like stocks. There is no natural upward bias, (apart from oil in recent years) and they can literally collapse under the weight of their own bullishness.... contrarian psycology at its purist.

You can scroll through commodity chart after chart _ad naseum_ and see the same pattern time after time.


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## wayneL (3 May 2006)

*Re: Free IV charts for commodities*

Jake Berstein on Copper FWIW:



> Copper: My advice has been consistently bullish although
> I have warned you that the days of this “mother of all bull
> markets” are numbered. I DO NOT recommend long-termshort sales as yet because I do not see technical signs of a
> major top as of this writing. Traders may want to consider
> ...


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## wayneL (25 May 2006)

Hi Folks

I have created a new Futures chart page which I think is a more useable format. It contains all the tradeable liquid commodities futures:

Futures Charts 

Not Forgeting the Implied Volatilty Charts . Options players, check out the recent levels;

Indicies at six month highs (as you would expect),

Wheat at 2 years highs, Beans at lows,

and Metals Sky freakin' high (as you would expect). Those with the cajones' will be flogging call premium like there's no tommorrow. Not me, I'm too scared : 

But as Stuie Johnston once remarked, a full time trader is a professional coward   

Cheers, Enjoy!


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## wayneL (5 September 2006)

As there are a few more folks interested in commodity options now I thought I'd give this a bump, and my IV charts page also has a new URL

http://sigmaoptions.netfirms.com/IVcharts/IV.htm

This will give you 2 year Implied volatility charts for selected commodities... any others I can add on request.

Cheers


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