# NCZ - New Century Resources



## System (26 November 2010)

Attila Resources Limited (AYA) is an Australian based minerals exploration and development company that has secured options to acquire mining tenements located in the northern Perth Basin and the Paddington-Kalgoorlie-Kambalda gold belt.

http://www.attilaresources.com


----------



## ocelot (9 December 2010)

New lister here, they have jumped up quite high anybody else got any idea about this new lister seems to have a little bit of buzz surrounding them


----------



## springhill (27 July 2012)

*ATTILA COMMENCES DRILLING PROGRAM AT KODIAK COKING COAL PROJECT*


● Maiden drill program commenced at Kodiak Coking Coal Project
● 26 diamond drill holes are planned for a total of approximately 12,400m of drilling
● Aim to convert 80-100Mt Exploration Target* into a JORC compliant resource
● JORC compliant resource due after completion of program (approx. 6 months)
● Program will assess coal quality, gas desorption testing and geotechnical data for mine planning


----------



## Trickster (14 October 2012)

springhill said:


> *ATTILA COMMENCES DRILLING PROGRAM AT KODIAK COKING COAL PROJECT*
> 
> 
> ● Maiden drill program commenced at Kodiak Coking Coal Project
> ...




Seems like its going forward in a big way


----------



## sbn1234 (11 December 2012)

*AYA Attila Resorces*

Hi.
Does anyone have any detailed information on this company?
Based in US. Apparently has train lines to port, and high quality coal resorces


----------



## sbn1234 (26 August 2013)

*Attila Resourses*

Hi.
I was wondering if anyone had the heads up on this company?
Very good report from Hartley"s last week.
Any information appreciated.


----------



## Country Lad (26 August 2013)

sbn1234 said:


> Hi.
> I was wondering if anyone had the heads up on this company?
> Very good report from Hartley"s last week.
> Any information appreciated.




Doesn't look like it because no answer here in this correct thread or over there where you have asked the above qyuestion of this company again in the wrong place.  Obviously nobody here is following this company.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## sbn1234 (26 August 2013)

Country Lad said:


> Doesn't look like it because no answer here in this correct thread or over there where you have asked the above qyuestion of this company again in the wrong place.  Obviously nobody here is following this company.
> 
> Cheers
> Country Lad




Thanks for that.
I wasn't sure where to post.
You are right no one seems to be following this one.


----------



## burglar (26 August 2013)

sbn1234 said:


> Thanks for that.
> I wasn't sure where to post.
> You are right no one seems to be following this one.




You'll get the hang of it.

ASX:AYA





Interesting!
Someone wants it upwards and mobile.


----------



## sbn1234 (27 August 2013)

burglar said:


> You'll get the hang of it.
> 
> ASX:AYA
> 
> ...




I saw this in the West Australian Newspaper last week and grabbed my attention!

Page 1 of 8
Attila Resources Limited
Coal: Developer / Explorer
AYA.asx
Speculative Buy
Share Price
Valuation
Price Target (12 month) $2.00
Brief Business Description:
Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion
Directors
Top Shareholders
Kingslane Pty Ltd 12.2%
Auscorp Netw ork Pty Ltd 6.5%
Company Address
Issued Capital 57.0m
- fully diluted
Market Cap
- fully diluted
Cash (30 Jun 13e) A$2.8m
Debt (30 Jun 13e)* A$0.0m
EV
Coal (Mt)
Reserves 48
Resources 78
* AYA has $14m (28m @ 50c) in convertible notes
Mike Millikan
Resource Analyst
Ph: +61 8 9268 3045
E: mike_millikan@hartleys.com.au
15 Aug 2013
$0.46
Hard coking coal developer w ith advanced high
quality assets in Alabama, USA
Max Brundson (Exec Director)
Low capex near-term production potential at the
Kodiak Project w ith potential to develop a larger
position in the basin.
Evan Cranston (Exec Director)
$1.96
Subiaco, WA 6008
Suite 23, 513 Hay St,
A$23.4m
A$32.9m
A$26.2m
71.4m
Hartleys has provided corporate advice to Attila
Resources Limited w ithin the past 12 months and
continues to provide corporate advice, for w hich it
w ill earn fees. Hartleys has a benef icial interest in
2 million Attila Resources options w hich w ill vest
subject to certain milestones. The analyst has a
benef icial interest in AYA shares.
ATTILA RESOURCES LIMITED
“Alabama Slammer” - Low Opex & Capex Coking Coal
Attila Resources Ltd (“Attila”, “AYA”, “Company”) recently completed a prefeasibility
study (PFS) on the potential development of the Kodiak Hard
Coking Coal Project (AYA 70%) in Alabama, USA.
The study highlights a robust project development with near-term production
of ~2Mt (saleable) per annum of high-quality coking coal over an initial mine
life of +12 years. Importantly, the PFS has delivered low cash costs of
US$90/t FOB for the LOM, exceeding our preliminary cost estimate of over
US$100/t. The all-in cash costs are expected to position Attila in the lowest
10% for seaborne metallurgical coal producers globally (Wood Mackenzie
data). The project has low start-up capital costs (~US$52m) as existing
infrastructure (preparation plant and rail) can be utilised to wash and then
transport the saleable product to the Port of Mobile (~370km south), where
ample export capacity exists and discussions with terminal operators are
well advanced.
The Company also has staged development options that can reduce upfront
capex through a phased ramp-up in production. The staged development
approach is expected to maintain low production costs while generating
strong early cash flows to support production increases towards 4Mtpa
ROM coal.
Upside in Maximising Yield for Improved Saleable Coal
The PFS assumes mining of the Coke and Atkins coal seams via
underground (room and pillar) mining, accessing workings through the
existing portals. The seams contain a combined reserve of ~48.2Mt, with the
Coke seam contributing 55% of the tonnes. The marketable coal reserves of
~23.4Mt are based on a LOM preparation yield of 48%, which is based on
ash contents of 4-5% ADB. Potential exists to improve the yield (and hence
saleable coal) by producing a higher ash product and potential production of
a middling’s fraction which could be sold for domestic power use. The
optimal yield will be determined during the course of the BFS.
The quality of the coking coals at the Kodiak Project is also excellent with
low ash, low sulphur, and superior fluidity which are expected to attract
premium prices and be highly sought after by potential offtake partners.
Robust Project Economics with Low Barrier for Market Entry
The Kodiak Coal Project has a number of key advantages such as high
quality coal and existing infrastructure which lowers the barrier for market
entry (low start-up capex). The PFS has delivered a robust development
plan, which provides confidence that work can now commence on a BFS.
Next steps include improving the preparation yields and investigating
potential sales of a middlings fraction; which could reduce operating costs
further and improve revenues.
We have used the information from the PFS to update our valuation, which
has added mine life, lowered costs and provided a better estimate on capex.
Our updated NAV for Attila is now $1.96/s (up from $1.71/s).
We continue to recommend the Company as a Speculative Buy with 12-
month price target of $2.00/s. With only a short time frame expected before
the BFS is released (potentially late Q1 CY2014), Attila is well positioned to
be in early production, generating solid cash flows.
Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000
Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
.
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13
Volume - RHS
AYA Shareprice - LHS
Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS
A$ M
Attila Resources Ltd
Source: IRESS
Hartleys Limited Attila Resources Limited 15 August 2013
Page 2 of 8
SUMMARY MODEL
Attila Resources LtdShare PriceAYA$0.460Key Market InformationDirectorsCompany InformationShare Price$0.46Evan Cranston (Exec Director)Suite 23, 513 Hay St,Market Capitalisation - ordinaryA$26mMax Brundson (Exec Director)Subiaco, WA 6008Net Debt (cash)-$3mShaun Day (Non-Exec Director)+61 8 6424 8440Market Capitalisation - fully dilutedA$33mBryn Hardcastle (Non-Exec Director)+61 8 9321 1710EVA$27mAlan Thom (Non-Exec Director)www.attilaresources.com Issued Capital57.0mOptions, performance rights and partly paid shares ITM14.4Top Shareholdersm shares%Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. all options)71.4mKingslane Pty Ltd6.97m12.2%Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. all options and new capital)156.2mAuscorp Network Pty Ltd3.71m6.5%Valuation$1.961Reserves & Resources12month price target$2.002Coal ReserveProvenProbableTotalMarketableYield3Coke SeamMt26.30.326.512.7P&LUnit30 Jun 1330 Jun 1430 Jun 1530 Jun 1630 Jun 174Atkins SeamMt21.10.521.710.7Net RevenueA$m0.08.092.5236.9313.65TotalMt47.40.848.223.448%Total CostsA$m-1.9-11.0-57.7-147.0-187.66EBITDAA$m-1.9-3.034.890.0126.07Coal QualityAshSulphurVol MatF CarbonFluidityCal ValueFSI - margin--38%38%38%40%84-50.6-0.733-3560-6310K-30K+8K-8.4K8-9Depreciation/AmortA$m-0.4-1.9-4.6-7.3-9.79EBITA$m-2.3-4.930.282.7116.3Coal ResourceMeasIndInfTotalNet InterestA$m0.20.21.03.98.9#Mt71.64.82.078.4Pre-Tax ProfitA$m-2.1-4.631.286.6125.2Tax ExpenseA$m0.00.0-5.5-17.3-25.0Production SummaryUnitJun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Normalised NPATA$m-2.1-4.625.769.3100.1ROM Coal producedMt0.00.21.73.84.0Abnormal ItemsA$m0.00.00.00.00.0Yield (inclusive of mining dilution)%48.0%48.0%48.0%48.0%48.0%Reported ProfitA$m-2.1-4.625.769.3100.1Saleable coal producedMt0.00.10.81.81.9Minority A$m0.00.00.00.00.0M&I Resource Conversion%55%55%55%53%50%Profit AttribA$m-2.1-4.625.769.3100.1Mine Lifeyr12.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 Assumed ReserveMt48.248.246.542.838.8Balance SheetUnit30 Jun 1330 Jun 1430 Jun 1530 Jun 1630 Jun 17CashA$m2.825.242.5108.4194.2CostsUnitJun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Other Current AssetsA$m0.00.11.33.24.3Cost per washed tonne$A/t-82.1 68.2 69.8 64.7 Total Current AssetsA$m2.825.343.8111.6198.5EBITDA / tonne$A/t-20.2- 20.8 24.0 31.5 Property, Plant & Equip.A$m6.139.369.888.0104.0ExplorationA$m11.011.612.212.813.4C1:FOB Mobile Cash Cost = (a)$A/t-82.1 78.9 78.2 79.2 Investments/otherA$m0.00.00.00.00.0(a) + Royalty = (b)$A/t-105.9 92.3 93.7 97.9 Tot Non-Curr. AssetsA$m17.150.882.0100.7117.3CFR Brazil$A/t-126.6 114.9 115.3 113.4 Total AssetsA$m19.976.2125.8212.4315.9CFR China$A/t-144.6 133.3 133.5 132.3 C2: (a) + depreciation & amortisation = (c)$A/t-83.9 83.6 85.5 89.0 Short Term BorrowingsA$m-14.07.0--(a) + actual cash for development = (d)$A/t-117.7 114.7 104.3 105.6 OtherA$m0.20.94.712.115.4C3: (c) + Royalty$A/t-107.8 97.0 101.0 107.6 Total Curr. LiabilitiesA$m0.214.911.712.115.4(d) + Royalty$A/t-141.6 128.1 119.7 124.2 Long Term BorrowingsA$m-16.013.010.0-OtherA$m-----Price AssumptionsUnitJun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Total Non-Curr. Liabil.A$m-16.013.010.0-AUDUSDA$/US$1.010.960.930.940.91Total LiabilitiesA$m0.230.924.722.115.4Coal cokingUS$/t205.8183.1191.4189.8186.3Net AssetsA$m19.745.3101.0190.3300.4Coal steamingUS$/t102.297.6101.3104.5104.1Net DebtA$m-2.84.8-22.5-98.4-194.2Coking coal CFR BrazilUS$/t221.8199.1207.4205.8202.3CashflowUnit30 Jun 1330 Jun 1430 Jun 1530 Jun 1630 Jun 17Sensitivity AnalysisOperating CashflowA$m-1.6-2.437.595.3128.3ValuationFY15 NPATIncome Tax PaidA$m0.00.0-5.5-17.3-25.0Base Case1.9625.7Interest & OtherA$m0.20.21.03.98.9Spot Prices1.64 (-16.5%)13.3 (-48.3%)Operating ActivitiesA$m-1.4-2.133.181.9112.2AUDUSD +/--10%1.73 / 2.25 (-12.0% / 14.6%)21.7 / 30.7 (-15.7% / 19.2%)Coal coking +/--10%2.40 / 1.52 (22.4% / -22.4%)32.4 / 19.1 (25.9% / -25.9%)Property, Plant & Equip.A$m-5.0-35.0-35.2-25.5-25.7CFR Brazil +/--10%1.96 / 1.96 (0.0% / 0.0%)25.7 / 25.7 (0.0% / 0.0%)Exploration and Devel.A$m-1.3-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.60 +/--10%1.96 / 1.96 (0.0% / 0.0%)25.7 / 25.7 (0.0% / 0.0%)OtherA$m0.00.00.00.00.0Production +/--10%2.45 / 1.48 (24.6% / -24.6%)33.0 / 18.4 (28.4% / -28.4%)Investment ActivitiesA$m-6.3-35.6-35.8-26.1-26.3Operating Costs +/--10%1.98 / 1.95 (0.8% / -0.8%)25.7 / 25.7 (0.0% / 0.0%)Net BorrowingsA$m0.030.020.010.00.0Unpaid CapitalEquity or "tbc capital"A$m8.430.20.00.00.0Year ExpiresNo. (m)$mAvg price% ordDividends PaidA$m0.00.00.00.00.030-Jun-120.00.00.000%Financing ActivitiesA$m8.460.220.010.00.030-Jun-130.00.00.000%30-Jun-141.52.11.393%Net CashflowA$m0.722.417.365.985.830-Jun-152.50.90.374%30-Jun-160.00.00.000%SharesUnit30 Jun 1330 Jun 1430 Jun 1530 Jun 1630 Jun 17TOTAL4.03.00.767%Ordinary Shares - Endm69.0115.5115.5115.5115.5Ordinary Shares - Weightedm63.092.3115.5115.5115.5ValuationDiluted Shares - Weightedm63.092.3115.5115.5115.570% Gurnee (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 12%)3091.98Ratio AnalysisUnit30 Jun 1330 Jun 1430 Jun 1530 Jun 1630 Jun 1770% Seymour500.32Cashflow Per ShareA$ cps-2.2-2.328.670.997.1Other Assets/Exploration200.13Cashflow Multiplex-21.3-19.81.60.60.5Forwards00.00Earnings Per ShareA$ cps-3.3-5.022.360.086.7Corporate Overheads-23-0.15Price to Earnings Ratiox-13.8-9.12.10.80.5Net Cash (Debt)2.80.02Dividends Per ShareAUD-----Tax (NPV future liability)-54-0.34Dividend Yield%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Options & Other Equity20.02Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity%-16%10%-29%-107%-183%Total3071.96Interest CoverX11.720.3nananaReturn on Equity%nana25%36%33%Analyst: Mike Millikan+61 8 9268 3052"tbc capital" could be equity or debt. Our valuation is risk-adjusted for how this may be obtained.Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys ResearchLast Updated: 15/08/201315 August 2013Speculative Buy
Hartleys Limited Attila Resources Limited 15 August 2013
Page 3 of 8
New Coking Coal Mine in the Making
Attila acquired 70% ownership of the Kodiak Project, a high quality hard coking coal (HCC) asset in 2012. The project offers exposure to near-term coal production, in the infrastructure-rich state of Alabama, USA.
Attila recently commissioned Stagg Resource Consultants Inc (Stagg) to complete a PFS on re-commissioning the Coke No.1 Mine at its Gurnee Property, utilising the existing infrastructure and logistics routes to market. The Gurnee Property contains a total resource of some 78.4Mt of HCC, of which 76.4Mt is in the Measured and Indicated resource categories.
The robust PFS confirmed the technical and economic viability of the Kodiak Project which will now transition to a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS). The PFS assumes mining of the Coke and Atkins coal seams via underground (room and pillar) mining, processing of the coal the Company’s existing wash plant (2Mtpa capacity) and rail to the port of Mobile (which has existing capacity available for rail and port).
Key findings of the PFS include:
● Maiden coal reserve of 48.2Mt (ROM)
● ROM production rate of ~4Mtpa
● Marketable coal reserve of 23.4Mt (yield of 48%)
● Capacity to produce marketable coal of ~2.0Mtpa
● Mine life of over 12 years
● Low quartile all-in costs of US$90/t FOB for LOM
● Staged development/capital spend
● Potential options for a low start-up operation with capex of US$27m
● Total start-up funding requirement of US$52m for full 4Mtpa ROM coal
● Based on a current benchmark coal price of US$140/t, AYA report an after tax NPV8 of US$237.5m for IRR of 48%, which implies pay-back within 2.7 years.
● Based on previous quarterly benchmark coal price of US$172.5/t AYA report an after tax NPV8 of US$493.2m for IRR of 100%, pay-back within 1.6 years.
Fig. 1: Kodiak Project location
Source: Attila Resources Limited
The Kodiak Project covers the Gurnee and Seymour Properties
The PFS covers coal assets on the Gurnee Property
Gurnee has 2 coal seams (Coke and Atkins) under lease, total coal resource of 78.4Mt for maiden coal reserve of 48.2Mt
The coal quality is exceptional offering a premium HCC product for export
The Seymour Property is located ~ 3km from Gurnee, but not included in the current PFS, which provides upside to come
Extensive heavy gauge rail network with spare capacity
Nine extractable seams, four previously
Hartleys Limited Attila Resources Limited 15 August 2013
Page 4 of 8
Existing Infrastructure Already in Place
The Kodiak Project has a significant asset base including an operational Coal
Handling and Preparation Plant (CHPP or wash plant), a rail siding and load-out,
offices, workshops, and warehouse facilities. The Project is fully permitted, but to
recommission the Coke Mine the Company has applied for a new Mine Health and
Safety Administration (MSHA) identification number, which details the updated
control plan, ventilation plan and roof control plan. On current timing it is expected
that a new number will be issued in ~ 3 months (early November).
As part of the PFS mine plan the Coke and Atkins coal seams are expected to be
accessed through the existing portal and underground workings, whereby two sets of
parallel main entries are to be developed to the southeast of the property, from
which sub-mains and development panels will be developed across the seams.
Three shafts are included in the mine plan, two of which are return shafts and the
third is a combined intake and man/material shaft. The shafts will ensure the mine is
adequately ventilated, effectively managing any potential gas (methane) problems.
An area within the mine that was previously found to have unstable roof conditions
has been removed from the development plan, effectively mitigating many potential
technical issues that could have arisen.
Having completed the PFS for the project, and given the historical mining and
existing infrastructure, Attila is well placed to move quickly to a BFS and then to
funding and construction.
Fig. 2: PFS - Coke Mine Plan – Panel sequence over 14 years
Source: Attila Resources Limited
Extensive heavy
gauge rai l network
with spare capaci ty
Two coal seams to be
mined as part of the
PFS
3 shafts proposed to
ensure adequate
vent ilation
Now progressing to
BFS
Hartleys Limited Attila Resources Limited 15 August 2013
Page 5 of 8
Fig. 3: Kodiak assets – (clockwise from top left) CHPP, rail siding & loadout, thickener,
Kodiak siding joining the mainline
Source: Hartleys Research
Fig. 4: Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Cash Costs (All In) 2013
Source: Attila Resources Limited after Wood Mackenzie
The al l in cash costs
are expected to
posi tion Att ila in the
lowest 10% for
seaborne metallurgical
coal producers
globally
Hartleys Limited Attila Resources Limited 15 August 2013
Page 6 of 8
Updated Valuation
Our valuation of AYA is based on a sum-of-parts DCF model of an underground mine producing ~1.9Mtpa of clean coal from the Coke and Atkins seams (Gurnee Property). The assumptions we have used in our model are derived from the PFS and our assessment of information on potential development scenarios and transport options available to AYA. Our model assumes consensus pricing for commodities and under these assumptions we value the Gurnee Property at $309m or $1.98 per share. We model upfront capex of $60m and assume funding 50:50 D:E.
After tax, corporate overheads, options, forwards, equity dilution and ascribing a nominal $50m to the Seymour Property we value Attila Resources Limited at $307m or $1.96 per share. Fig. 5: AYA sum-of-parts valuation Valuation A$m Value/share
70% Gurnee (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 12%)
309
1.98
70% Seymour
50
032
Other Assets/Exploration
20
0.13
Forwards
0
0.00
Corporate Overheads
-23
-0.15
Net Cash (Debt)
2.8
0.02
Tax (NPV future liability)
-54
-0.34
Options & Other Equity
2
0.02
Total
307
1.96
Source: Hartleys estimates
Our price target is a weighted average of our valuation under consensus and spot pricing. We have a 12 month price target for AYA of $2.00/share. We note that at current spot hard coking coal prices and exchange rates our AYA valuation is still $1.64/s, implying a current trading discount of some 257%.
Fig. 6: AYA 12 month price target Price Target Methodology Weighting Spot 12 mth out NPV consensus prices 80% $1.96 $2.08 NPV at spot commodity and fx prices 20% $1.64 $1.67
Risk weighted composite
$1.90
12 Months Price Target
$2.00
Shareprice - Last
$0.460
12 mth total return
334%
Source: Hartleys estimates
We value Attila Resources Limited at $307m or $1.96/share
We model upfront capex of $60m and assume funding 50:50 D:E
We have a 12 month price target for AYA of $2.00/share
Hartleys Limited Attila Resources Limited 15 August 2013
Page 7 of 8
Fig. 7: Historic and Consensus Coking Coal Price
Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics
Risks
We see the main risks to our valuation of Attila as being:
Fig. 8: Key assumptions and risks for valuation Assumption Risk of not realising assumption Downside risk to valuation if assumption is incorrect Comment
Consensus commodity price
Moderate
Moderate
We assume consensus prices for coking and thermal coal. Our model is sensitive to movements in the coal price.
Timing
Low
Low
Given the near-term production capability we have only modelled small variations in the timing of production at Kodiak. Therefore the impact on our valuation is small. More significant delays would have a more pronounced effect.
Technical risk
Low
High
Thin seam mining is potentially challenging and the previous Coke No.1 mine was forced to close in part due to adverse mining conditions. We believe that AYA has the skill and experience to design and execute a mine plan to mitigate these issues. Consequently we view the risk as low; however should unforeseen issues be encountered that impact the rate of advance our valuation will suffer.
Funding risk
Low
High
Whilst our capex estimates are modest there is a risk that either capex significantly increases or AYA are unable to raise sufficient funds.
Conclusion
While the assumptions we have used are reasonable, we consider some assumptions as moderate to high risk and the consequential reduction to our valuation would be significant if they were not achieved.
Source: Hartleys Research
We use a long run coking coal price of US$156/t or A$172/t on our exchange rate forecasts
Page 8 of 8


----------



## burglar (27 August 2013)

*Re: Attila Resourses*



sbn1234 said:


> ... Very good report from Hartley"s last week. ...



A week before Hartley's there was this:
"Attila Research Coverage Updated by Patersons" 

http://www.attilaresources.com/images/AYA_130812.pdf

As I said, someone wants this one to fly!


----------



## sbn1234 (28 August 2013)

*Re: Attila Resourses*



burglar said:


> A week before Hartley's there was this:
> "Attila Research Coverage Updated by Patersons"
> 
> http://www.attilaresources.com/images/AYA_130812.pdf
> ...




Yes I think you are right.
Low volume trading and looks like its tightly held!
Very high grade coal , a huge resource and low costs getting it to port.
It could have some potential at current price!
Thanks for the info.

Cheers


----------



## System (18 July 2017)

On July 18th, 2017, Attila Resources Limited (AYA) changed its name and ASX code to New Century Resources Limited (NCZ).


----------



## peter2 (25 February 2019)

Follow on from the recent discussion about zinc.  
NCZ is a current zinc producer (Qld) and is ramping up its production to projected targets. It has recently secured funding to do this. 

The price chart is starting to look better as the company develops.


----------



## rnr (25 February 2019)

A question one must ask.....which way is price heading from tomorrow?


----------



## greggles (11 April 2019)

Zinc production and recovery rates continue to improve quarter on quarter for NCZ with the latest results being released today for Q1 2019.






With plant capacity scheduled to more than double in 2019 through further flotation cell refurbishments and a third mining cannon now online the company is targeting further increases in production. 

I can't see this staying under $1 for much longer if NCZ continues to meet its production targets.


----------



## peter2 (30 October 2019)

Since my last post on NCZ I was looking for a break out >0.94. It didn't happen as the price of NCZ fell like a rock. Coincidentally (or not) the price of zinc also fell from 1.35/lb to 1.00/lb during this time. 

NCZ is looking much more bullish now and I also see the price of zinc is off it's recent low (1.00/lb to 1.16/lb) and going higher in Oct19. (Ref: Kitco metals website)

If the POZ keeps rallying then there's a trade opportunity in NCZ. 
Be careful, as zinc is a volatile commodity. It may also be interesting to look at the LME zinc stores if this is a significant zinc storage.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 December 2019)

Some may have observed that MQG Macquarie Group owned ~7.5% of NCZ and recently increased their holding by another 1%.
After reading up on their current situation, things are looking up.
Zinc is still down low for the year though. Not sure why it's down, plenty of supply I guess. I wouldn't think demand would drop.
Anyhoo, I bought in recently and expect a return from my investment.
Hopefully one with a +xxx% figure.
Macquarie should make sure of that.
In at 0.285 and not at speccie sized volume... 
F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (15 December 2019)

PS; I would value your current opinion on this one P2 or Greggles if you have the time and inclination and are still following? Cheers.
F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (4 February 2020)

I may have jumped the gun slightly buying in today at 0.19... but the system said buy...
However, warehouse levels are at 5 year lows and zinc price at 3 year lows... something has to give in to the laws of supply and demand.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html
RBC Capital and Credit Suisse have it at strong buy also, with a 0.33 target.
Just seems a bit unloved ATM.
F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (6 February 2020)

Update.
Macquarie Group has increased their holding from 8.47% to 9.57% as announced this afternoon.
A nice 10% rise today.
Aiming for ~38.8% / $0.27 on this one, only 28% to go! 
That's the plan anyway.
If it breaks out this week, will revise the plan... expecting a small retrace first though.
F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (7 February 2020)

Update.
Up 4.65% today.
23.4% to target 38.8%
Giddy up!

F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (6 March 2020)

Update.
NCZ has wiped 50% off it's price over the last week's.
I consider myself very very lucky to have got out completely soon after my last post....
However, have been again working with it a bit this week...wonder where the Deutsch Bank group is taking it next?
Wondering if the price of zinc is going to keep heading down, or find it's feet on the 2000 mark?
With current markets I am very cautious on this one... I trust it like a cut snake...

F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (1 April 2020)

Update.
Credit Suisse owns ~17.3% 
Macquarie Group owns ~9.6%
Deutsch Group own circa 5% but have been in and out, and in again...

Closed at 0.072 
$0.24 seems so long ago now!
As you may expect, from the names listed above, there's bots/algos trading it, caution required. 
Had a bit of a play with the bots today. A bit of fun and interesting to see them react.

F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (3 April 2020)

Closed at $ 0.099
Hopefully it plays around at this level... but I am nearly all out after today. Average of ~18.3% return net this far.
Am still holding 20% of original holding.
Won't know until Monday if that's a mistake or not...

F.Rock


----------



## peter2 (6 June 2020)

Since the last posts the price of NCZ rallied strongly, until news of a major recapitalisation (SSP @ 0.15).

Capital is needed to finance a purchase that may transform the company. NCZ is planning to buy a nickel-cobalt operation in New Caledonia from Vale. Nickel is in increasing demand as battery makers are using more Ni in their cathodes. This makes the batteries last 20% longer. 

NCZ has been granted a 60 day exclusivity period to do it's due diligence on the proposed acquisition. 

IGO has shown support for the project by buying  ~19% NCZ.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (7 July 2020)

New Century Resources (ASX: NCZ) has kicked off commercial production at its zinc mine in Queensland, Australia, amid forecasts that see prices for the metal climbing in the coming months as restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic ease.

The Melbourne-based zinc producer, which bought the then mothballed Century mine in 2016, said operations had not been affected by the global pandemic. Instead, Century delivered record production of 34,500 tonnes in the April-June period.

It was the seventh consecutive quarter of increased output and lower costs at the mine, said managing director Patrick Walta.....


> "From a market perspective, despite the zinc price remaining near four-year lows, a strong decline in spot treatment charges in the quarter has improved conditions for zinc miners,” he noted. “The company also sees potential for a price rebound due to additional metal demand from increased global infrastructure development linked to covid-19 government stimulus.”




https://www.mining.com/australias-century-zinc-mine-begins-commercial-production/


----------



## frugal.rock (20 July 2020)

Nice bullish bar before the weekend.
Zinc on the rise, somewhere up around $2200 now.
Hopefully the term trend in zinc is continuing up.
Not sure where it's all at though, with mines open or closed, smelters and rates, demand and stockpiles.
FA has me wondering why the stock  price hasn't runup yet. 
Not in any hurry, like me I guess.
Have to wait and see what Fridays bar brings along.


----------



## frugal.rock (29 July 2020)

Credit Suisse increased holding recently.
Announced today.
Holding from 11.87% to 13.82%
Looking like September for offer to be made on Goro nickel and cobalt mine.
Quietly on the rise. I have settled on a target of $0.75 for 9 months.


----------



## frugal.rock (25 August 2020)

Some rumblings.


----------



## barney (26 August 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Some rumblings.




Missed all your above ramblings previously "Rock"

Big Volume day today (Tuesday) on no news ..... Either side of todays Bar might see a definitive move but its a hard one to read just yet.


----------



## frugal.rock (26 August 2020)

barney said:


> but its a hard one to read just yet.



Not as hard as getting sleep...


----------



## frugal.rock (26 August 2020)

Some might be interested in reviewing professional analysts current targets on NCZ.
From what I have seen, lowest of lows is 0.27 and a high of 0.50 and
2 very large brokers have strong buy recommendations on it. (RBC & Credit Suisse)


----------



## frugal.rock (31 August 2020)

I note that NZC hasn't released final results yet.
Last quarter results look pretty good and should top off a good year for them.
Covid actually benefited them in regards to around half of the top 10 zinc mines shutting down, and smelter prices dropping from lack of feed.
Zinc prices have been on the recovery rise recently, not sure how much of that was in the quarter though.
SP has been mostly sideways for a while now.
Note the 2 record volume days recently....


----------



## frugal.rock (3 September 2020)

So, a twist in proceedings with a change in substantial holders.
Mitsubishi (MUFG) and Morgan Stanley taking up the dumped holding.
I took the opportunity to accumulate with the disproportionate drop in price.


----------



## peter2 (7 September 2020)

Just noticed the recent dip in price of NCZ. What's happened? 

IGO sold out it's 18.4% interest. That's not good. 

*Potential* acquisition of Goro nickel & cobalt mine. What, haven't they bought this yet. Delay? 
Another 45day extension granted. (-> mid Sept) 

They need to source 900mill for initial mine working capital.  They're sorting out the problems with the under performing Goro mine.  Acquisition may or may not proceed. 

NCZ, it all hinges on this potential acquisition. I'd prefer to see what happens to price after a decision is made.


----------



## frugal.rock (7 September 2020)

Despite my accumulation, it's now irrelevant as it's been liquidated with the portfolio's.
At first I thought good riddance to IGO, however, I guess they got tired of no return... understandable. 
Although for Mitsubishi and MS to pick up the TAB, it couldn't be all bad, just not showing right now.


----------



## peter2 (7 September 2020)

IMO if IGO thought the purchase of the Goro mine was a great idea they wouldn't have bailed. They may even have provided some finance for it if it was a sure thing.


----------



## frugal.rock (7 September 2020)

peter2 said:


> IMO if IGO thought the purchase of the Goro mine was a great idea they wouldn't have bailed.



There's definitely greener pastures out there...the whole thing has been exhausting, including the POZ....


----------



## frugal.rock (1 October 2020)

While one system triggers a sell (Skates daily strategy), other systems trigger a buy ?
It's a funny old world... 





Interestingly, Ze Germans have taken an interest directly.





With the "big name" financial interests holding and that have held, some positive action on the price front is inevitable which has settled after recent major shareholder changes and the proposed Goro mine acquisition anbandoned. I don't see much risk on the downside and am honestly surprised it hasn't run up/ recovered properly from Corona crash. Zinc prices stable and rising..





Position re-entered on 18th September.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 October 2020)

Order flow has been looking up the last 2 trading days. Hopefully continues...


----------



## frugal.rock (22 October 2020)

Alrighty, really showing some signs of gathering steam.
Note, today indicating first bar upturn on PSAR.
Price of zinc also staging a nice recovery to boot. A symbiotic relationship I expect.
1 month chart. Held.






5 year Nasdaq zinc chart from ASF site sponsor,
investing.com
(their app is nice and useful !)


----------



## peter2 (24 October 2020)

It's been a busy year for NCZ. Lets' start with the weekly chart. It looks horrible. The long lasting *down trend* is clear, culminating in the Covid Mar low. Since then price has rallied of this low and is currently in a corrective pattern. Is price making a base pattern here? Looking at the daily chart there's a symmetrical three wave abc corrective pattern after the impulsive rally. The 50-62% PB zone is marked by the green rectangle. Last weeks price swing off the recent low looks quite bullish. It's at the correct place for a bullish rally  (if you like the EW theory). 






We know that IGO has sold it's stake. We know NCZ will not make an offer for the Vale's Goro nickel, cobalt mine. NCZ continues to produce zinc at it's New Century mine as it has done for the past few years. Price has gone down for the past few years. So what's NCZ going to do to turn it around to attract new investors? NCZ is doing a bit or local exploration but it'll need to find a lot more zinc to spark investor demand. 

_In summary_: There's a short term bullish outlook and NCZ needs something to spark a longer term investment outlook.


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2020)

A standing sell order got hit on Friday, so back in today on the small pullback.
Hopefully it's tomorrow's hot stock...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> A standing sell order got hit on Friday, so back in today on the small pullback.
> Hopefully it's tomorrow's hot stock...



Tempt me not.
@frugal.rock

Then again, ever been at Century in the wet. Then again AUD may fall again against USD. Then again Zn price may rise. Then again may partner or t/o with a RE or Golder. 

I'll watch the chart atm.. 

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Tempt me not.
> @frugal.rock



Ok, have it your way.
I won't even mention "just a wafer thin slice sir?" ...


Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'll watch the chart atm..



It started looking a bit grim after you posted, however all is not as appears, sometimes.
Order flow suggested vested interests buying all offerings at their intended price.
Am interested to see the closing shenanigans.
Cheers.
PS; I held my part of the deal by buying up CNJ... couldn't have the right honourable GG in the naughty corner now could we?
It wouldn't be proper, like.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Ok, have it your way.
> I won't even mention "just a wafer thin slice sir?" ...
> 
> It started looking a bit grim after you posted, however all is not as appears, sometimes.
> ...



All good fortune with NCZ. Due to your interest and good postings it is on my watchlist.

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (20 November 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Tempt me not.



Go on Sir, just a waffer thin slice
Hoping for a pullback now, so I don't get that empty feeling again...


----------



## peter2 (13 December 2020)

*NCZ* is getting closer to breaking out from the weekly base pattern. Price is trading just below the 0.25 level. 
My first target is the old high at 0.40.


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2021)

A while since last post.
NCZ back trading today.
Placements occuring at the $0.155 mark.

1 year chart.






Zinc futures, not sure what has caused the spike on the weekly ?.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 December 2021)

A quick update.
Has consolidated  15:1 since last post. Pre consol' price was around $0.15 which converts to $2.25
With the price of zinc (POZ) heading north, one would expect a zinc miner to be doing better than this SP ?
Perhaps now that the hurdles of cap raise and consolidation are past, it might react to the POZ ?
Might be wishful thinking as I am holding some longer term.

NCZ chart (daily) and a zinc futures chart (weekly) (different futures ticker chart to last post)


----------



## frugal.rock (31 December 2021)

It's been a slow correction to the order of balance... patience grasshopper, for this too will pass.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 January 2022)

Have put in the comp for 2022
Zinc at highs.
The z in the name used to be zinc.
Just need some lithium prospects now. 
Some ESG garb and consolidation may bring a some change, oh, and a bloody dividend would be nice...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 January 2022)

just looking at this:        

April 2020 ... Capital raising of A$51.1 million via a placement and fully underwritten accelerated non renounceable entitlement offer. IGO Limited to invest up to A$27 million, taking up to an 18.4% stake and entering a strategic relationship for ongoing collaborative assessment of Century exploration potential & other resource assets within the clean energy metals sector.
Oct 2021 .... New Century will execute transformational ESG focused growth transaction including strategic investment from Sibanye -Stillwater, innovative proposed acquisition of Mt. Lyell Copper mine, bond refinancing and a capital raise.
27 October 2021, successfully raising A$116.7 million before costs.   The process included a strategic 19.99% investment by Sibanye-Stillwater Limited (JSE:SSW and NYSE:SBSW) via an equity investment of A$61 million.
And a non renounceable pro rata offer to Eligible Shareholders on the basis of 1 New Share for every 4 Shares held on the Record Date at an issue price of $0.155 each to raise approximately A$46.9 million;
09 Dec 2021 ... Has consolidated 15:1 . Pre consol price was around $0.15 which converts to $2.25.
Execution of Option Agreement Over the *Mt Lyell Copper Mine  
Highlights *
• Attractive Acquisition Structure 
o Option Agreement executed, providing New Century a two-year period to study acquisition of the Mt Lyell Copper Mine in Tasmania 
o Option Agreement uses an innovative, ‘capital-lite’, risk-sharing structure with acquisition consideration principally via a deferred and capped royalty from future production 
• 100% Green Copper Supply 
o Major sustainable copper supply, strong ESG credentials 
o Potential to operate on 100% renewable energy (hydroelectric power) 
o Opportunity for potential accelerated restart via tailings reprocessing and existing plant 
• Large Resources in Tier 1 Location 
o 1.1Mt+ Cu & 0.94Moz Au Mineral Resource enabling potential for a multi-decade mine life 
o Tasmania: Strong mining history and multiple existing operations 
• Proven Operations & Established Infrastructure 
o Historical operations strongly cash flow positive (at lower Cu prices than current spot price) 
o Mining lease, tailings dam, plant on care and maintenance, other infrastructure in place 
o Potential for broader rehabilitation services strategy over legacy issues 
• New Century is now undertaking an initial Options Study, to be completed within six months, to form basis of a Restart Feasibility Study


----------



## frugal.rock (10 January 2022)

A couple of big unusual trades.
Seems like an organised on market transfer ?
I love a good anomaly, just never know which way it will go though...😬


----------



## frugal.rock (12 January 2022)

Starting to look better?
Decent little gap up to close the day.
Price of zinc getting up to multi year highs.
15 bars for a bit of clarity on the 5 day chart. 
Monthly on the zinc chart.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 March 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Price of zinc getting up to multi year highs.



Not 100% sure, but I think the highest zinc has ever been, or very close to it...
5 hour bars.
Will it rub off on NCZ SP though?

They probably have half their output hedged on what would now seem stupidly low prices. 😱


----------



## frugal.rock (2 March 2022)

Well, I'll be a monkeys Uncle.

Just got an alert for an all time high. Now that doesn't happen every day....


----------



## noirua (5 April 2022)

New Century Resources Ltd's Patrick Walta and Brad Evans discuss an update on the progress of study works in relation to the Mt Lyell copper mine in Tasmania, which is currently under an option agreement for acquisition. They say the mineral resource base of 1.1 million tonnes of copper and 940 thousand ounces of gold has multiple development pathways which they're currently assessing.


----------



## frugal.rock (1 August 2022)

I used to like trading NCZ pre consolidation near the end of last year.
It's a different beast to trade now.
However, price of zinc has been jumping back up lately and so has the SP on this old donkey.
Not held, but I did look at it lately when around a buck Fiddy...😩


----------



## frugal.rock (21 December 2022)

All in all, NCZ is probably a "freakin' bargain" right now. 🤐
My opinion only, not a recommendation in any form.

An excerpt from the latest AGM announcement.

Annual General Meeting –
 9 November 2022
 "The potential to restart one of Australia’s greatest historic copper mines at Mt Lyell in Tasmania is a significant opportunity for New Century. Despite its 100-year history, Mt Lyell remains one of Australia’s best undeveloped copper assets, with the potential for a multi-decade life. We are currently drilling and advancing our project evaluation studies on this exciting and potentially transformative project, with the aim being to complete the Prefeasibility Study before the end of 2022. This will then inform the Feasibility Study to commence soon after, leading to a Final Investment Decision towards 
the end of 2023."

There's nothing in the chart saying "buy me" unless you're a contrarian...however, a positive announcement on Mt Lyell could/ would/ should ? trigger a reversal.


----------



## frugal.rock (31 December 2022)

A pick for 2023.

Zinc price waiting to recover.
Production of zinc increasing.
Waiting on the Mt Lyell copper mine announcement as in above post.
SP hitting 52 week lows. 
A contrarian hit really. 🤨
Terrible looking weekly chart and things could really turn pear shaped. Make or break year for NCZ IMO, it needs to come up with some goodies or long term investors will be looking elsewhere.


----------



## frugal.rock (Monday at 11:07 PM)

Still no news... is no news good news?
Hoping for some good timing of things here.
At least the price of zinc is appreciating and NZC may have found a bottom, but it didn't move much on zinc's last pop, so who knows.
Not looking like much supply, but NCZ has been proven to be tricky as some of the big insto's historically have played around with it. Not sure where that's at currently.


----------

