# All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish? (Jun-Sep 2006)



## RichKid (21 June 2006)

Since Aussie Stock Forums has grown to a reasonable number of members, a poll on market sentiment might be good for discussion. A few members have suggested it in the past. Note that this is just a small sample and is not scientific so please do not rely on this thread for financial advice or trading.

<Note- I'll make note of swings in sentiment by posting in this thread from time to time. Please remember to vote in the poll instead of only posting in this thread.>

So the question: Do you feel Bullish or Bearish about the local stockmarket, the All Ordinaries, at the moment?


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## wavepicker (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Since Aussie Stock Forums has grown to a reasonable number of members a poll on market sentiment might be good for discussion. A few members have suggested it in the past. Note that this is just a small sample and is not scientific so please do not rely on this thread for financial advice or trading.
> 
> So the question: Do you feel Bullish or Bearish about the local stockmarket, the All Ordinaries, at the moment?





Richkid,

I am bullish for the shortterm with a target zone of approximately 5000/5050.


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## RichKid (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> Richkid,
> 
> I am bullish for the shortterm with a target zone of approximately 5000/5050.




Wavepicker,

That's an interesting point and highlights some of the problems with polls- the time period and extent of the bullish or bearishness is hard to gauge. So basically for those wondering what's being asked, it is: how do you 'feel' about the market's prospects atm? 

I suppose it relates to feelings of optimism and pessimism, that's another reason why this is not scientific.


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## powwww (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Bullish until further notice...The global economic outlook is healthy and any short term weakness is a buying opportunity imo however that is not saying we won't face a volatile couple of months with further downside risk.

Interest rate rises WILL slow the economy but are already factored into many market indices.  DJIA Futures are based on 100% chance of the FED raising rates at their June meeting and 67% the meeting the one after that according to a recent survey. Definitely not bearish unless some major issues arise between US and North Korea or perhaps to a lesser extent Iran.

Hold on tight...ha-ha


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## Sean K (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Bullish.

Correction just about done. 
Fed rate hike end June is factored in and will occur eleviating doubt.
China growth to continue.
Massive upgrades for resource companies in July/August.
Birdful will not effect markets.
Iran, Venezuela and Middle East to keep oil pricey but manageable.
US to continue to grow short term. 
All Ords to 5400 by Dec.
Gold back to $750ish.


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## happytrader (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Hi Richkid

Actually asking how one feels about anything is a very valid question.

For a start emotions are good, purposeful and are best acknowledged, managed and understood.

Points to ponder: Men are way more emotional than women however, most men learn to cap them.

Too much emotion either negative or positive makes people act stupid.

Most buying decisions are emotional. 

The emotions causing a person to sell are a lot stronger than the emotions causing a person to buy.

You will get a lot further when goals contain lots of emotional carrots.

Logic and emotion don't meet.

Now back to the question. I feel the market is in a sideways band but the next quarter will be decisive.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## RichKid (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*



			
				happytrader said:
			
		

> Hi Richkid
> 
> Actually asking how one feels about anything is a very valid question.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the great post HappyTrader, I always enjoy reading what you write. I am trying to capture sentiment rather than rational or logical views or the 'why' or 'how' behind those sentiments as you can see. 

I feel a bit confused about the direction of the market so I voted sideways, although if I had only bullish or bearish to choose from I'd have gone bullish but with many caveats. All three options are important in my view.

This emotional side of the market is intriguing as it reflects my personal battles with trade management and planning as well. This poll is mainly to gauge how sentiment changes on ASF compared to the AllOrds (better than the XJO as there are many small cap punters here), we should have some interesting results over the years...maybe we can fine tune the thread to a simple concept.

So to recap, how do you 'feel' about the market at the moment folks? The first overwhelming feeling that you become aware of will help you decide how to vote- don't try to rationalise it.


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## wayneL (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

My gut feel is sideways/ranging for a while. Could test the highs but I doubt it.

I need not repeat my longer term outlook  

However, energies/metals, "could" help the ASX, which is now basically a proxy for these two commodity classes. 

There is only one direction for energy over the longer term and thats up. (Notwithstanding that a recession could put a dampener on energy in the medium term)

Gold I'm not so sure about. Could linger around this level (+ or - 75%   ) Likewise the industrial metals.

Thats my 2 pacific pesos worth  

Cheers


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## powwww (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Lets put it this way

Even WHEN the FED raises interest rates to say, 5.5% the economy will still grow.  

Perhaps 3%, rather than 5%.  Oh well.

This will not be bad for the world economy.

This will not be bad for Australia.

Anyone who mentions - Recession is kidding themselves.

Have you been watching Foreign correspondent or been o/s lately?

The Matadores don't know what they've gotten themselves into...Look out for some *enraged bulls * once some big aus stocks earnings results come out & tax selling is over...


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## Porper (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

I am feeling mildly pessimistic regarding the XJO, especially Gold, which I have been a big fan of over the past year.Another attempted rally then down imo . If metals head lower it will be difficult for our market to go in the opposite direction.

I think most people feel unsure really when it comes down to it.


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## rederob (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> So the question: Do you feel Bullish or Bearish about the local stockmarket, the All Ordinaries, at the moment?



Rich lad
I won't vote because "at the moment" is a bit meaningless in my book.
Being bullish today serves no purpose if you are trading with a longer term in mind.
I am bullish to September this year.
Beyond that? - I will form a view nearer to September.
I am a natural bear as a general rule.


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## nizar (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> So the question: Do you feel Bullish or Bearish about the local stockmarket, the All Ordinaries, at the moment?




Bullish

When reporting season gets under way; the market will start firing again
My target is 5500 by september, >10% i know... but then a correction in October to maybe 5000-5100 and then finish the year at around 5400-5500


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## mit (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds- Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

I'm bullish for Kenna's reason. I think the current correction was engineered by the American Fed. They want to stop raising interest rates as they are near their target zone but inflation is still strong. So they are doing the most they can to scare the hell out of people.

I think the market will move sideways until the next rate rise. After this you will hear some bullish talk from the Fed that everything is under control and the market will move up again.

MIT


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## Julia (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Sideways.


Julia


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## coyotte (21 June 2006)

*Re: AllOrds - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

*BEARISH*


*US presidential cycle *--- market forced DOWN  untill around Sept/Oct 06
Then all the good news --- Dow & Ecomony booming untill Jan 09 --- when the medicine can be safely taken with the elections out the way

Besides its a contratiction to have a Bull Market with rising World Interest Rates


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## happytrader (27 June 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Here is a point to ponder from trading wizard Linda Bradford Rascke

"Wait until your neighbour is totally depressed and thinks the market will never rally. That's probably your cue to buy"

Cheers
Happytrader


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## NettAssets (27 June 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*



			
				happytrader said:
			
		

> Here is a point to ponder from trading wizard Linda Bradford Rascke
> Cheers
> Happytrader




Think that one deserves to be copied into the Quotable quotes


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## RichKid (14 July 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

...emmm, so most people are bullish atm- about 60%, I wonder if this'll change, I note that the ASF Sentiment Poll trend has gone from a majority thinking it sideways/bullish to now thinking the XAO is bullish.


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## noirua (14 July 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Bullish or Bearish? The answer to me is whether I have moved more into cash or shares in recent months. Now I'm about 70% in cash against 20% 12 months ago. Almost all my stocks are speculative and held very nervously.


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## profithunter (14 July 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Im bearish until i reassess the situation tomorrow morning


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## RichKid (9 August 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Update time: 51% bullish, 15% bearish so things have settled. Please vote if you haven't already, aiming for at least 100 genuine voters.


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## Novski (8 September 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Bullish long term

Sideways medium/short term


Not bearish unless it heads below its June low


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## wayneL (8 September 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

If anyone would like to keep track of short term sentiment, check out this blogger sentiment poll which is run weekly, (of which I am a participant via my blog)

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/09/september_5th_b.html




...and just for shock value, my vote has been in the green section for the last 3 weeks   (But bear in mind it is for the next 30 days only)

Cheers


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## swingstar (8 September 2006)

*Re: All Ords - Do you feel Bullish or Bearish?*

Here's another interesting sentiment index...

http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp

Calculates long call to put ratio. Long puts have hit all-time highs recently (in relation to calls), so there's certainly bearish sentiment out there.


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