# Buying the Dip on ASX



## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

Sticking the neck out here with a somewhat contrarian view...

I see Powell's comments as giving the market certainty.
Bots and panicking trigger a sell off, but really, has anything changed.
Not on your nelly.

I think in Aus we are disconnected somewhat from the "world's" issues.
We could be properly protected if governments ever work that out  before our land is completely plundered... I digress.

I'm buying the dip. There, I said it out loud. 🤞
I might be wrong though, I have been before, sometimes.


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

I refuse to partake in the
The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread​as I believe it *incites* panic as a headline, and out of panic comes violence and rioting, and to incite violence and rioting is a crime. 😹


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## Belli (29 August 2022)

I'm just wondering how falling share prices impacts on the earnings of a company.  I've never had an explanation about that which I am able to properly grasp.


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## Telamelo (29 August 2022)

I still think we're in a bear market overall with further to fall to possibly re-test June '22 low's imo (though till last Friday we'd had a nice "bear market rally" to make some coin $$ on but unfortunately good times don't last long these day's lol)


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## qldfrog (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Sticking the neck out here with a somewhat contrarian view...
> 
> I see Powell's comments as giving the market certainty.
> Bots and panicking trigger a sell off, but really, has anything changed.
> ...



What do you need to offload😂


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## Stockbailx (29 August 2022)

Wouldn't be buying off any dips to soon, there's plenty of room to head south on all fronts, long over due, I say. While the Government reforms politics and and the AU structure in General. (Got to clean the dirt out from under the carpet) Must make way for future highs. I'll be looking for new forms of Resistance, early next year, should the market re- adapt as promised as the world turns...
However looking at a week of lows no doubt. In the near term.


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## martyjames (29 August 2022)

normally when you see a move on the SPX or NDX of minus 3percent or above, its like an arrow as to near term direction = down. Our make will follow

Having said that, at the moment, if in doubt buy coal stocks like WHC!


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## waterbottle (29 August 2022)

Long bets are probably safer bets given they have historically paid off. 
I think it's a bad time for risky assets, probably a good time to start purchasing long term quality assets.


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

Plenty of decent after dump recoveries out there. VML and CDA just a couple on my radar
I note, the usual voices are forecasting the usual slurry. 
15 minute bars on an intraday chart.


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## Stockbailx (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Plenty of decent after dump recoveries out there. VML and CDA just a couple on my radar
> I note, the usual voices are forecasting the usual slurry.
> 15 minute bars on an intraday chart.
> 
> ...



YOUR DREAMING!


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)




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## Belli (29 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> *Always *a good time to *purchase *long term quality assets.




Fixed.

No need to thank me.  It was my pleasure.


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

"Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’"









						Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’ By Bloomberg
					

Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’




					au.investing.com


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## qldfrog (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> "Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’"
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Are THEY selling these?😂😂🤣


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## qldfrog (29 August 2022)

Let's be honest, while we do not need 3 bnpl , or even any, banks well , can buy less clothes and stuff, we still need to eat, warm and cool ourself and use some minerals..so yes commodities, but they will fall too so no rush


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## waterbottle (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> "Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’"
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hmmmmm, Goldman doing a public service?



qldfrog said:


> Are THEY selling these?😂😂🤣


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## qldfrog (29 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Hmmmmm, Goldman doing a public service?




very interesting  so as i said, 
"our machine will sell: please BTD on Monday!!!"


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## divs4ever (29 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I refuse to partake in the
> The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread​as I believe it *incites* panic as a headline, and out of panic comes violence and rioting, and to incite violence and rioting is a crime. 😹



 but if you become the government FIRST it becomes 'fiery but mostly peaceful protests '

in fact a skilled politician  would claim it as 'popular support for the government policy '

 saw some headlines  , saw the US dropped more than 3%  tweaked some buy prices down before the open 

the Fed has lost the trust of the masses .. it can jaw-bone and bluff , but without folks buying Treasuries ( in bulk ) it has nothing left 

 ( i feel sorry for all those folks in pension funds that are being force-fed those Treasuries  )


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## divs4ever (29 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> very interesting  so as i said,
> "our machine will sell: please BTD on Monday!!!"



 the dip wasn't deep enough for me  ( or my trader buddy )

 maybe tomorrow or Wednesday


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## divs4ever (29 August 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Hmmmmm, Goldman doing a public service?




 so did they  actually sell , or just pile on the short positions  ??

 it is Goldman after all , not a reputable fund manager ( well at least not a reputation i would want )


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## frugal.rock (29 August 2022)

"The recent pullback in agricultural and industrial commodities was due to a global recession being priced in by traders. Recession fears have had more of an impact on commodities than on any other asset class, Goldman said. However, the bank believes a recession will be mostly confined to Europe, with the U.S. and China avoiding one."









						This asset class is poised to rise 38% because markets overestimate risk of global recession, Goldman says
					

Recent selloffs have created a window of opportunity in commodities, according to Goldman Sachs.




					www.marketwatch.com


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## divs4ever (30 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> "The recent pullback in agricultural and industrial commodities was due to a global recession being priced in by traders. Recession fears have had more of an impact on commodities than on any other asset class, Goldman said. However, the bank believes a recession will be mostly confined to Europe, with the U.S. and China avoiding one."
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 China  .. maybe ,  but if China sneezes the rest of the world gets  shortages up to the ears ( look at the virus saga )

 maybe Goldman needs a forensic audit of their books if they truly believe that forecast 

now in the '80s that would have been uncomfortable  , but now with 'just is time ' widely accepted as well as prolific out-sourcing ...

 well maybe some ( third world ) self-reliant nations will get through OK 

 i on other hand  hope i have over-estimated the risk of  a depression ( and not just rely on another redefinition from some academic think-tank  )


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

Nearly there, but don't make me crack out the pep talk...
Time for some zzzzz, you've got until I wake up to get your act together.


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Sticking the neck out here with a somewhat contrarian view...
> 
> I see Powell's comments as giving the market certainty.
> Bots and panicking trigger a sell off, but really, has anything changed.
> ...



Good morning
Will always buy in the dip, but ...  ever close scrutiny to buy and sell on the ever precarious upward trend.  Concentration... you would hear the cogs turning ha ha ha ha.

Have a very nice day, today

Kind regards
rcw1


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

Having crackers and caviar with my dip. 🕵️


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Having crackers and caviar with my dip. 🕵️



that is really funny frugal.rock


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

rcw1 said:


> that is really funny frugal.rock



Not as funny as being down 4% yesterday, or around 1% greater than the XSO which is generally the world I reside in, largely as a bottom feeder, but not all the time.
I generally beat the market in either direction, but have more up days than the "market" does.
Market below is ASX 200 because the broker is a dressed up mule.
XSO up 0.7%


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## frugal.rock (30 August 2022)

Ended up 2.93% for the day.
XSO up 1% for the day.
Uraniums were banging after the US URA lead in.
Futures up. Bonds easing off.
Crypto and gold getting their fondles again.

So, business as usual.
Dip over and done with.

Do I need to say it?
Probably. Be a dipstick. 🤪
RISK ON.
Go on, grow a pair...🤨😹


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## rcw1 (30 August 2022)

Nice
We get to do it all again tomorrow... 
Bring it on... 


Kind regards
rcw


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## frugal.rock (10 September 2022)

A snapshot in time.
10/9/2022 12:48AM (AEST)


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## frugal.rock (14 September 2022)

The US CPI numbers out. Markets gone for a tumble. For me, not a dip buying moment until around the 22/9/22,
but that's a holiday now, so Wednesday or Friday.
That's the plan at the moment, unless it turns to excrement. 💩

DXY been making higher highs/ higher lows.




VIX on the up again


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## qldfrog (14 September 2022)

Let's summarise:
Oops....


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## KevinBB (14 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Let's summarise:
> Oops....



lol


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## divs4ever (14 September 2022)

will see if there is something to nibble on ( today )

 the US futures are slightly green currently


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## eskys (14 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> will see if there is something to nibble on ( today )
> 
> the US futures are slightly green currently



Morning divs, can be a good day for nimble traders, but have to be quick........the market is jittery right now. Energy and utilities did the best last night, as in,....they dropped the least. This in my mind, is  bad news for core inflation.


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## divs4ever (14 September 2022)

eskys said:


> Morning divs, can be a good day for nimble traders, but have to be quick........the market is jittery right now. Energy and utilities did the best last night, as in,....they dropped the least. This in my mind, is  bad news for core inflation.



 nimble ??

 took three minutes to open the Commsec login page  ( and THEN complained it took too long to load )

 nothing tasty yet  , maybe later on near the close 

 good luck  ( tomorrow is a non-trading day )


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## eskys (14 September 2022)

Public holiday tomorrow, divs? l thought it's next Thursday.........will check that out

Nothing to pick up yet so far, divs. First day down, I think I'll wait for close and take another look. Will shut down and go to another location and plan cooking for tonight......will be better feeding our stomachs today......have a good one, divs, good luck


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## divs4ever (14 September 2022)

Australia announces National Day of Mourning for Queen Elizabeth​








						Australia announces National Day of Mourning for Queen Elizabeth
					

Here's how it will affect your people and your working hours




					www.hcamag.com
				




 oops !  you are correct 

 22nd  it is  

 what a clown show 

 the upside  is more time to buy some Guinness  black stout  , to have a quiet drink with  my former mentor   ( who has been deceased for a couple of decades )


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## frugal.rock (23 September 2022)

In combat to that " ASX is tanking" thread, keep honking, I'm reloading.  😘


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## divs4ever (23 September 2022)

guilty , as charged  !

 added extra GPT , CMW and EAI today 

my BHP , APE and MIN divs successfully parked


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## JohnDe (23 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> guilty , as charged  !
> 
> added extra GPT , CMW and EAI today
> 
> my BHP , APE and MIN divs successfully parked




GPT price is looking good. The word I'm getting is that investors that have been pulling out of the share market these past few months are now gearing up for the property market, with expectation that SP's and the $ is going to be low for an extended period. In the last few weeks, I've seen some unusual investment grade properties selling which had been on the market for a very long time with no interest. 

Will travelers stay at home with Europe in disarray and threat of nuclear weapons? Will locals stay in Australia's vast regions? Will international tourists travel to safer warm locations like Australia? 

Regional accommodation could be in demand.


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## waterbottle (23 September 2022)

JohnDe said:


> GPT price is looking good. The word I'm getting is that investors that have been pulling out of the share market these past few months are now gearing up for the property market, with expectation that SP's and the $ is going to be low for an extended period. In the last few weeks, I've seen some unusual investment grade properties selling which had been on the market for a very long time with no interest.
> 
> Will travelers stay at home with Europe in disarray and threat of nuclear weapons? Will locals stay in Australia's vast regions? Will international tourists travel to safer warm locations like Australia?
> 
> Regional accommodation could be in demand.



Surely property will be heading south too... Interest rates don't make property with yields at 3%


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## frugal.rock (23 September 2022)

Last couple of years has somewhat changed the face of property investment.
EG: currently all the rage is buying property which is suitable for childcare and pre-schools. (redundant squash centres, gyms etc )
Property hit by covid, but suitably zoned areas and business for where the grubberment is always willing to throw money at, and, areas that are experiencing growth, whether greenfield or brownfield expansion.
Regional accommodation has been and is still hot.


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## JohnDe (23 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Surely property will be heading south too... Interest rates don't make property with yields at 3%




There are many types of property. There is property for homeowners, property for business, offices and restaurants, properties for tourists and accommodation.

It could be a glitch, but I am seeing accommodation style properties in tourist locations move. What is the $ return on holiday accommodation?


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## peter2 (23 September 2022)

I'm becoming tempted by the dips in *CHC* and *GMG. *Not knowing how low these can go I'll wait for them to start going up before buying.

Liking this dip in the uranium sector as well. I missed out on the last rally don't want to miss the next one.


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## frugal.rock (23 September 2022)

peter2 said:


> I'm becoming tempted by the dips in *CHC* and *GMG. *Not knowing how low these can go I'll wait for them to start going up before buying.



I'm getting tempted by the US market.
Things like FEAM, SOXL and the chipmakers ( sounds like a band name...?) and Nikola MMTEC etc
And ASX BEN
I think all of them have gently been pushing new 52 week lows.
Throw Alcoa (US) and AWC (Aus) in there as well.
But like you Peter, not seeing a great need to rush into anything early, although I suspect some of these are in for a good whip saw up.


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## rcw1 (23 September 2022)

JohnDe said:


> GPT price is looking good. The word I'm getting is that investors that have been pulling out of the share market these past few months are now gearing up for the property market, with expectation that SP's and the $ is going to be low for an extended period. In the last few weeks, I've seen some unusual investment grade properties selling which had been on the market for a very long time with no interest.
> 
> Will travelers stay at home with Europe in disarray and threat of nuclear weapons? Will locals stay in Australia's vast regions? Will international tourists travel to safer warm locations like Australia?
> 
> Regional accommodation could be in demand.



Good afternoon JohnDe,
rcw1 does know that the international and national tourists have flocked back to Port Douglas, particularly past 3 - 4 so months. 
Assuming same for Cairns and the Tablelands.  Great news for the local economies.

Have a very nice week end.  (Go the Cowboys   )  

Kind regards
rcw1


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## divs4ever (23 September 2022)

JohnDe said:


> GPT price is looking good. The word I'm getting is that investors that have been pulling out of the share market these past few months are now gearing up for the property market, with expectation that SP's and the $ is going to be low for an extended period. In the last few weeks, I've seen some unusual investment grade properties selling which had been on the market for a very long time with no interest.
> 
> Will travelers stay at home with Europe in disarray and threat of nuclear weapons? Will locals stay in Australia's vast regions? Will international tourists travel to safer warm locations like Australia?
> 
> Regional accommodation could be in demand.



 having spent 10 weeks in Europe/UK in winter in 1990   , i reckon any tourists to Europe ( and UK ) this winter are up for a real education 

 ( the smart ones will stay away  because the luggage costs of all the extra clothes you need will be a killer , i am guessing decent winter clothing will  be hard to find this year over there as well )

 but will they even 'holiday' in large numbers this year ,  again some will reduce debt  , and others buy durable goods to front-run inflation/product shortages (  maybe even  upgrade the house if they own it )

 the property market  well that is going to be a big guess  , given the chance we could slip into  a depression   is warehouse space ( for e-tailers ) the place to be  or will local 'cloud' providers  take up the space 


BTW if the war goes nuclear Australia is liable to get maybe three or four    Darwin's port ( with the US naval base , the military  airfield  , Pine Gap  , and maybe Townsville military facilities )

 the key will be debt obligations  in an era of rising interest rates  ( and other costs )

 i keep missing NSR , i reckon some folks will downsize and rent  a storage space 

 another i am stalking ( only bought one parcel so far ) is REP  , and am watching DBF  , but might have moved too late there 

 i would rather REITs ( currently ) than BNPL stocks or bonds


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## divs4ever (23 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Surely property will be heading south too... Interest rates don't make property with yields at 3%




 property  values  ( in most cases ) absolutely  , returns on investment  , will probably be stretched as well  , but can the smart operators reduce costs  , bring forward maintenance ( etc. )

 however with property you have a real ( tangible ) asset even if it is depreciating  ( the buildings part ) slowly 

 given the headwinds coming  it might be a case of the investment that loses the least   ,  ( this is where gold comes into it's own , but sadly does not produce a steady income )


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## JohnDe (23 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> property  values  ( in most cases ) absolutely  , returns on investment  , will probably be stretched as well  , but can the smart operators reduce costs  , bring forward maintenance ( etc. )
> 
> however with property you have a real ( tangible ) asset even if it is depreciating  ( the buildings part ) slowly
> 
> given the headwinds coming  it might be a case of the investment that loses the least   ,  ( this is where gold comes into it's own , but sadly does not produce a steady income )




Most likely, if the whole economy completely crashes.

In a small coastal tourist town there’s a one bedroom apartment with balcony, kitchen, lounge and ocean view which sold for $195,000 about 6 years ago. Accommodation revenue was between $125 & $200 per day with about 60% occupancy, all depending on season. During the last year the occupancy has reached 85% and rental is between $175 & $275 per day. That apartment recently sold  for $335,000. And since then there have been other apartments going on the market with increasing prices.

What’s the profit after strata fees and what ever else is required to maintain an apartment I don’t know, but I do know that there’s a steady stream of people wanting to use them, and now buy.

Property is bit like the share market, a buyer needs to research, choose wisely and make the purchase at a good time for their circumstances. A bonus is that the property will always be worth something, it won’t disappear like some companies do on the stock markets.


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## wayneL (23 September 2022)

I think I prefer the Big Dip to the Little Dip, with apologies to the astronomers amongst us.


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## divs4ever (24 September 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Property is bit like the share market, a buyer needs to research, choose wisely and make the purchase at a good time for their circumstances. A bonus is that the property will always be worth something, it won’t disappear like some companies do on the stock markets.



 yes i agree  ,  but don't forget the ongoing costs of owning property   (  which is less apparent if the interest is via property trusts and REITs )

 that 'good time for their circumstances ' MIGHT be when interest rates are very high  as you could be the only potential buyer for that property ( especially  if you have most of the purchase price ready up front )

 some interesting times coming  , for sure


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## divs4ever (24 September 2022)

wayneL said:


> I think I prefer the Big Dip to the Little Dip, with apologies to the astronomers amongst us.



have been waiting for that 'big dip ' since the middle of 2013  , i thought March 2020 was going to be it  bought they lobbed in that K-shaped recovery  ... so far  little dips have been all the opportunities  i have had to try to exploit  , 

maybe that was a good thing  i have had some practice runs on my strategies ( and found some flaws early )

 maybe that 'big dip' will be this year and maybe there will be another bail-out


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## frugal.rock (24 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> maybe that 'big dip' will be this year and maybe there will be another bail-out



All that matters is what's in front of you, or, It's the last card that you turn over that matters.
Probably the last profit report for a while 🤪
I have some suspicions about the market at the moment, which will  be better for the people's overall in the long run, but for now, not.
Nobody wants to hear my conspiracy theories though, despite the fact history repeats, again and again...
Short term pain, long term gain, remember that.


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## divs4ever (24 September 2022)

they are only theories until proven true  ( or false )  

 i think the global economy is cooked ( an euphemism for a different word ending in ked  )

 but they keep on with the bailout fantasy ( 'magic monetary theory ' )

 how long can they kick the can ??

 a depression can last for more than 10 years ( when they have to change the definition of recession we are already in it in a bad way )

 my plan is income until i don't need it any longer  ( i think the coming depression will last longer than me )


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## ducati916 (24 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I have some suspicions about the market at the moment, which will  be better for the people's overall in the long run, but for now, not.
> Nobody wants to hear my conspiracy theories though, despite the fact history repeats, again and again...




Actually I would be very interested in hearing your views. I'm curious to see if they match my own.

jog on
duc


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I have some suspicions about the market at the moment, which will  be better for the people's overall in the long run, but for now, not.
> Nobody wants to hear my conspiracy theories though, despite the fact history repeats, again and again...




On the contrary, everyone likes a conspiracy theory.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (24 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> On the contrary, everyone likes *a *conspiracy theory.
> 
> gg



I'd prefer two.


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## rcw1 (24 September 2022)

JohnDe said:


> There are many types of property. There is property for homeowners, property for business, offices and restaurants, properties for tourists and accommodation.
> 
> It could be a glitch, but I am seeing accommodation style properties in tourist locations move. What is the $ return on holiday accommodation?



Good evening JohnDe
Re: your query:  What is the $ return on holiday accommodation?

Extraordinarily high.   But obviously you are heavily reliant upon the tourism industry.  Therein lies risk not withstanding capital gain.

Mind set:  capital gain has always swayed Rcw1 mind in bad times el la COVID19  

Discolsure:  rcw1 has an investment interest in Port Douglas and have been in this position for 8 years. 

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## rcw1 (24 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> have been waiting for that 'big dip ' since the middle of 2013  , i thought March 2020 was going to be it  bought they lobbed in that K-shaped recovery  ... so far  little dips have been all the opportunities  i have had to try to exploit  ,
> 
> maybe that was a good thing  i have had some practice runs on my strategies ( and found some flaws early )
> 
> maybe that 'big dip' will be this year and maybe there will be another bail-out



Good evening divs4ever 
There has been banter aplenty about ‘big dips’  all the time.  Rcw1 don’t worry 😉 about that … only “plays off the pitch” any condition.  

Is what it is. 

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
Rcw1


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## frugal.rock (24 September 2022)

Well, it's not really my theory, just a collection of observations.

OPEC finger pointing re manipulation of the POO.
Various sources finger pointing re manipulation of the POG.
Most commodity prices apparently ignoring standard supply demand rules.
Most Central bank's late to act, gee, didn't Brazil get in early...🤔
The earlier points go towards helping the last point and the standing government.
No need to mention which government but they  can't be acting alone.
I'm off to the library now to borrow "The Catcher in the Rye". wish me luck...


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## frugal.rock (24 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> OPEC finger pointing re manipulation of the POO.



Probably should clarify this.
Fingers have pointed at OPEC for ages re manipulation, my point is, this time it's OPEC pointing the finger... but if course it's not directed at any one entity. Their not that stupid...


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## gartley (24 September 2022)

Nothing wrong with buying the dips even when the trend is down. Fast and powerful counter moves happen if the dip is timed correctly. But first need to find a way to differentiate  between the probability of a shallow rally compared to the probability of good move.

This is what I do as explained in the excel file attached. For example in the last rally we had in the ASX. Firstly the TDI indicator which is based on the RSI and sentiment. When the green and red  lines  "throw over" the light blue band ( actually green line is enough),this sets the possibility of a counter trend move against the larger trend or the light blue line ( 200 ema) in the upper pane. This throw over suggests a good move to come in the opposte direction.  Next move to the Dual CCI.  Brown is 55cci and blue line is 13cci. After the TDI throw over event occurs, cast eye to 55cci ( brown line) and see if it was at -100 or less. If so the conditions are in place for a good tradeable counter trend rally. When the the cci13 crosses zero that's the signal to long with stop just below the last price low *but only on one condition*. When CD1 is above zero and FT above 50 as this leads to the momentum of the move up. Hold positions till TDI green and red throw over at the other extreme ( upper blue channel line) and cci13 crosses zero moving down. Along with this I also use price projection to add weight to the possibility of a good move but it's not necessary


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## Telamelo (24 September 2022)

gartley said:


> Nothing wrong with buying the dips even when the trend is down. Fast and powerful counter moves happen if the dip is timed correctly. But first need to find a way to differentiate  between the probability of a shallow rally compared to the probability of good move.
> 
> This is what I do as explained in the excel file attached. For example in the last rally we had in the ASX. Firstly the TDI indicator which is based on the RSI and sentiment. When the green and red  lines  "throw over" the light blue band ( actually green line is enough),this sets the possibility of a counter trend move against the larger trend or the light blue line ( 200 ema) in the upper pane. This throw over suggests a good move to come in the opposte direction.  Next move to the Dual CCI.  Brown is 55cci and blue line is 13cci. After the TDI throw over event occurs, cast eye to 55cci ( brown line) and see if it was at -100 or less. If so the conditions are in place for a good tradeable counter trend rally. When the the cci13 crosses zero that's the signal to long with stop just below the last price low *but only on one condition*. When CD1 is above zero and FT above 50 as this leads to the momentum of the move up. Hold positions till TDI green and red throw over at the other extreme ( upper blue channel line) and cci13 crosses zero moving down. Along with this I also use price projection to add weight to the possibility of a good move but it's not necessary



Take note from 5:15 onwards in relation to "buying the dip" scenario


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## gartley (25 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Take note from 5:15 onwards in relation to "buying the dip" scenario




understood, need to trade larger trend but can dip buy by  finding a way to  differentiate between the probability of a shallow rally compared to the probability of good move.


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## ducati916 (25 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, it's not really my theory, just a collection of observations.
> 
> OPEC finger pointing re manipulation of the POO.
> Various sources finger pointing re manipulation of the POG.
> ...




So a part answer from me:



So the US is trapped in this situation. To date, up to 2008 and that crisis, the US could force EM currencies to fund the US as the US could outlast the EMs through the crisis and the demand for USD would translate into demand for UST.




The first sign that conditions had changed fundamentally occurred in 2019 (box 1). Today (box 2) this is playing out even worse for the US. Why? Because China and Russia are no longer EM economies. They have broken the reliance upon the USD as the Reserve Transactional currency. Now all that US debt and deficits more than matter, they are critical. There is no way out other than to devalue the USD significantly as against gold.

We have seen this before when in 1968 the Gold Pool collapsed.



The same mechanism has been employed since. The COMEX and LBMA are simply extensions of that exact same process.

This time China has broken it. In 2014 China inked deals to buy oil in CNY. China created the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Essentially, China made the CNY exchangeable into gold. A de facto gold standard. But they were far smarter than the US: (a) CNY was exchangeable into gold only by demanding physical from the COMEX and LBMA at market prices and (b) the export of gold from mainland China is illegal.

With the war in Ukraine, Mr Putin has now joined that club overtly. Oil for Rubles or gold. Same deal. Drain the West of its gold, held low at artificial prices by the COMEX and LBMA. The gold and now silver, is leaving at an unprecedented rate.

Lurking in the background to all of this:







So on all those USTs that were sold, SWAPS on interest rates (fixed/variable) were sold. That is to say you could buy a CDS that protected your USTs in an environment where interest rates rose. Just like we have currently.

Much like the CDS on mortgages that blew up in 2008, we have losses accruing on the CDS for interest rate SWAPS. Thing is, no-one really knows who the counter-parties are and their credit worthiness. As the losses grow, the counter-parties will blow-up.

Meanwhile




Federal deficits as a % of GDP are required to be funded. How? By the issuance of UST, which no-one wants. The USTs are being force fed to the commercial banking system currently, but this cannot last.




Above is the Eurodollar. Yield rising fast.

The private sector is crowded out by government, causing tax receipts to fall, increasing the deficits that require funding. This has now reached a point where a death spiral is almost taking over.

There are more moving parts, but basically: the world is no longer funding the US. The US is trying to defend USD hegemony, because they have to. If they don't, their economy collapses. The last option is pretty much WWIII, which we seem to be fast moving towards. China/Russia/Arabs/Iran have the US in a choke hold and won't back off. The USD is finished as the Reserve Transactional currency. Possibly 1 year and it's over.

The dip that you want to buy is the dip in gold/silver.

Definitely not stocks. No telling which ones survive and which ones go to zero. I wouldn't touch banks or anything financial (insurance companies etc).

I was looking at currencies last night. The correlation on all the majors is now pretty much 1.0. Except for the Ruble:






jog on

duc


----------



## gartley (25 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> I still think we're in a bear market overall with further to fall to possibly re-test June '22 low's imo (though till last Friday we'd had a nice "bear market rally" to make some coin $$ on but unfortunately good times don't last long these day's lol)



Bear market, yep .  Probably the biggest in our lifetime, correcting the biggest bull in history .
My 2c. Not only test the Jun 22 lows but by end October will be testing the March 2020 lows....


----------



## divs4ever (25 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Take note from 5:15 onwards in relation to "buying the dip" scenario




 now dips aren't totally bad even if you are an investor ( not planning to sell in the rallies )

 my plan is to accumulate div. paying stocks  

 now sure the global economies ( and banks ) could collapse  but then you have your cash in the bank  waiting to be frozen ( or bailed in to nearly  worthless bank stock )  which is worse  cash in a selected but plunging stock  or frozen in a bank account  ( yes it is a case of choosing your preferred poison ) , hoping that one unfrozen your have something to buy 



 now i am NIBBLING  my way down  ( not splashing the cash )

 regarding gold  ( and gold stocks )  this to me smells like the edge of a liquidation event (everything goes to cash to reduce debt ) ( and yes i should reassess the target price for my next EVN  parcel )

 please take extreme care , but keep your eyes open ( for opportunity and educational moments )


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## divs4ever (25 September 2022)

gartley said:


> Bear market, yep .  Probably the biggest in our lifetime, correcting the biggest bull in history .
> My 2c. Not only test the Jun 22 lows but by end October will be testing the March 2020 lows....




 am not sure March 2020  was a genuine support ( governments were bailing like crazy  to create that K-shaped recovery )  but until we hit March 2020 levels again we won't know for sure


----------



## gartley (25 September 2022)

As


divs4ever said:


> am not sure March 2020  was a genuine support ( governments were bailing like crazy  to create that K-shaped recovery )  but until we hit March 2020 levels again we won't know for sure



As soon as June 17 low is broken ( and it will be) there will be a slew margin calls triggered and the market will capitulate until all the stops are taken out and sellers exhausted. It will be wholesale panic among investors. As Bill Rodgers says, wait until there is a pile of money on the ground just waiting to be picked up....

Some examples below:


----------



## divs4ever (25 September 2022)

gartley said:


> As
> 
> As soon as June 17 low is broken ( and it will be) there will be a slew margin calls triggered and the market will capitulate until all the stops are taken out and sellers exhausted. It will be wholesale panic among investors.
> 
> ...



 am kinda hoping for that   ( yes it seems like morbid fascination )

 but still do NOT think  it will be the BIG dip  , i think they will even  throw the kitchen sink  at one last 'recovery ' before the US mid-term elections .. they can't afford to have ' Populists ' win the US Congress and Senate  ( i think they  would rather bankrupt the world first )


----------



## gartley (25 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> am kinda hoping for that   ( yes it seems like morbid fascination )
> 
> but still do NOT think  it will be the BIG dip  , i think they will even  throw the kitchen sink  at one last 'recovery ' before the US mid-term elections .. they can't afford to have ' Populists ' win the US Congress and Senate  ( i think they  would rather bankrupt the world first )



Yep. They probably certainly will, but whether it's enough who knows. Rather than hope that they will ( as they are the cause of this through their reckless money printing policies)  let's be optimistic about a big dip if it happens. It's opportunity, especially for those that are cashed up but more importantly for the younger generation who have a yet another chance to make their mark by buying low.
I feel sorry for the boomers who are just coming into retirement now as they will be the ones who lose most unless they take action very quickly although it's probably too late now. For the rest of us, the market will come back but my 2c worth: this will be a much longer bear market than previous ones.  Once this wave a down completes we will get a really good wave b rally but it probably won't carry to new ATH. It will be followed by a very nasty wave c down in the longer term. The 20 year cycle ( if the pattern holds) is due to bottom this or  next year, and if that is the case we are running out of time and so only a capitulation event can satisfy that low.


----------



## divs4ever (25 September 2022)

gartley said:


> Yep. They probably certainly will, but whether it's enough who knows. Rather than hope that they will ( as they are the cause of this through their reckless money printing policies)  let's be optimistic about a big dip if it happens. It's opportunity, especially for those that are cashed up but more importantly for the younger generation who have a yet another chance to make their mark by buying low.
> I feel sorry for the boomers who are just coming into retirement now as they will be the ones who lose most unless they take action very quickly although it's probably too late now. For the rest of us, the market will come back but my 2c worth: this will be a much longer bear market than previous ones.  Once this wave a down completes we will get a really good wave b rally but it probably won't carry to new ATH. It will be followed by a very nasty wave c down in the longer term. The 20 year cycle ( if the pattern holds) is due to bottom this or  next year, and if that is the case we are running out of time and so only a capitulation event can satisfy that low.



 i am one of those boomers , that has already been ( preemptively  ) retired  ,  and this might be my last big chance to get a reasonable return on my investment  , yes i expect it will make  2011 and 2020  look like picnics  but  you can only buy what is for sale  ( while you have access to your money )

 luckily in 2010 when planning for this adventure , i tried to pick companies liable to survive the very worst  , which  ts why i sold down 90% of the inherited WOW holding ( if they stumble so much in the good times how will they handle  a rout )

 and yes , sadly capitulation is very possible


----------



## gartley (25 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i am one of those boomers , that has already been ( preemptively  ) retired  ,  and this might be my last big chance to get a reasonable return on my investment  , yes i expect it will make  2011 and 2020  look like picnics  but  you can only buy what is for sale  ( while you have access to your money )
> 
> luckily in 2010 when planning for this adventure , i tried to pick companies liable to survive the very worst  , which  ts why i sold down 90% of the inherited WOW holding ( if they stumble so much in the good times how will they handle  a rout )
> 
> and yes , sadly capitulation is very possible



I am not far behind you. I worked in the auto industry for 38 years and was forced out when it was shut down.

It was hard finding new work and even harder now.  Luckily I started with the markets in the early 90s and had my ups and downs for 10 to 15 years until I realized that this requires work, effort perseverance and a certain type of mindset. Most importantly a good money management plan.
The turning point for me came when I stopped trying to be a perfectionist and starting becoming a "good loser" because this game is full of losses and we just gotta learn to deal with them by cutting them as soon as possible and don't go into prolonged and deep drawdowns.
 Cut the losses early, there is always another trade around the corner and just work on developing a positive expectancy.
Do that and you will survive and eventually prosper slowly in the longer term


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## ducati916 (25 September 2022)

gartley said:


> As
> 
> As soon as June 17 low is broken ( and it will be) there will be a slew margin calls triggered and the market will capitulate until all the stops are taken out and sellers exhausted. It will be wholesale panic among investors. As Bill Rodgers says, wait until there is a pile of money on the ground just waiting to be picked up....
> 
> ...





The charts that you have put up are examples of recent deflationary (asset) bears. The answer to which was create monetary inflation which would transmit to asset prices.

The Fed and other Central Banks will certainly try the same ploy.

Only this time, we are already in an inflationary environment and money creation will lead not to a bull market, but phase II of this bear, which is a 1969 - 1982 type of bear.

The deflationary leg of the bear could take the SPY to 2000 odd. The bounce from Fed easing might take us back to 3000, then the erosion will take us down another 50%+ from there. Anything from 1000 to 1500 on SPY.

Along the way, fiat currencies will fail or more optimistically, be devalued significantly.

A ratio of 1.43 on March 1980 is what you are looking for:




jog on
duc


----------



## divs4ever (25 September 2022)

gartley said:


> I am not far behind you. I worked in the auto industry for 38 years and was forced out when it was shut down.
> 
> It was hard finding new work and even harder now.  Luckily I started with the markets in the early 90s and had my ups and downs for 10 to 15 years until I realized that this requires work, effort perseverance and a certain type of mindset. Most importantly a good money management plan.
> The turning point for me came when I stopped trying to be a perfectionist and starting becoming a "good loser" because this game is full of losses and we just gotta learn to deal with them by cutting them as soon as possible and don't go into prolonged and deep drawdowns.
> ...



 the original plan  , was to 'buy and hold ' and NOT draw-down  and have a steady income stream  for the rest of my life 

 i live a rather frugal life-style  , so while there aren't many corners to cut , there are less expenses to blow out 

 now the 'buy and hold' part   it quickly  became obvious it needed frequent tweaking , but since i had inherited a portfolio and a LOT of related paperwork  , there were some lessons  to be learned  ( even 'blue-chips'  don't last forever  was one )

 i am more inclined  to sell because a company turns in an unattractive direction  , and if an attractive stock  i tend to 'average-down ' 

my trip  to retirement was a little more unplanned  , in July 2016  i applied for sickness benefits  , and went through various medical examinations  to boost my claim  by late December 2016  they sent me for an independent assessment  , and the doctor looked briefly through the documentation  including the recent results  ,  coughed/choked   stood up and said  you will be hearing from Centre-link soon  Happy New Year  and six days  later i had   a full disability  pension  back-paid to July 2016 

 so my plan to gracefully  retire  on 1st of January  2020  hit a slight bump   ... i expect the next bump , to be much bigger than March 2020 

 so i will have to see where the dust settles


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## gartley (25 September 2022)

ducati916 said:


> The charts that you have put up are examples of recent deflationary (asset) bears. The answer to which was create monetary inflation which would transmit to asset prices.
> 
> The Fed and other Central Banks will certainly try the same ploy.
> 
> ...



*The 2022 stock market crash has wiped out $13 trillion of wealth. That should be more than enough to get the Federal Reserve to ease off their panicked hyper-rising interest rate policy they have irresponsibly embarked on. This Fed Chairman is unable to act with finesse. His open market committee policies are irresponsibly large, both when he eased in 2020 through 2021, and when he tightened the past several months. Mortgage rates have doubled in just a few months, an unheard-of event, and are now the highest in 20 years. This is Master Planner economic warfare on Americans.

The issues that led to hyperinflation are an aggregate supply shortage, as well as the Fed's massively historic balance sheet explosion of $6.0 trillion in a year and a half in 2020 and 2021. The Fed's policy to reduce inflation is to crush aggregate demand. They are working the wrong side of the equation. This Fed is not just incompetent, it is dangerous.

We are in it now. A bunch of simultaneous wave threes down. Batten down the hatches. It could be a nasty couple of weeks coming up.*


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## ducati916 (26 September 2022)

gartley said:


> *The 2022 stock market crash has wiped out $13 trillion of wealth. That should be more than enough to get the Federal Reserve to ease off their panicked hyper-rising interest rate policy they have irresponsibly embarked on. This Fed Chairman is unable to act with finesse. His open market committee policies are irresponsibly large, both when he eased in 2020 through 2021, and when he tightened the past several months. Mortgage rates have doubled in just a few months, an unheard-of event, and are now the highest in 20 years. This is Master Planner economic warfare on Americans.
> 
> The issues that led to hyperinflation are an aggregate supply shortage, as well as the Fed's massively historic balance sheet explosion of $6.0 trillion in a year and a half in 2020 and 2021. The Fed's policy to reduce inflation is to crush aggregate demand. They are working the wrong side of the equation. This Fed is not just incompetent, it is dangerous.
> 
> We are in it now. A bunch of simultaneous wave threes down. Batten down the hatches. It could be a nasty couple of weeks coming up.*




Indeed it is most likely:




When a PUT is bought, the MM sells the PUT and hedges that exposure by selling short stock.




While the market could bounce...likely only a small bounce, a break below the June lows could as @gartley stated, result in a pretty big break lower.

jog on
duc


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## waterbottle (26 September 2022)

Another 2% down as of 1050hrs. Anyone going for a swim?


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## KevinBB (26 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Another 2% down as of 1050hrs. Anyone going for a swim?



Not yet, but looking at specific stocks rather than the index.
KH


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## DrBourse (26 September 2022)

NUP, might be time for a dip @ abt 6384.


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## Gunnerguy (26 September 2022)

What about an AP 5500P/5400P Credit spread for 20Oct or not low enough ?

Too early to buy more FMG or WDS ?

Gunnerguy


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## qldfrog (26 September 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> What about an AP 5500P/5400P Credit spread for 20Oct or not low enough ?
> 
> Too early to buy more FMG or WDS ?
> 
> Gunnerguy



In my view, do not even think buying anything  above 2022 lows, then for me it will be trading not investing until covid lows.
I expect a btd around our yearly lows then a harsh panic collapse until the feds reverse.they will, buy before indeed if you can time it


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## CityIndex (26 September 2022)

From a technical standpoint, it wouldn't be surprising to see an attempted bounce over the coming days with global indices trading back around their yearly lows.  

However, all trading carries risk. Even if we do get some sort of support kicking-in this week, it will be interesting to see how long it holds as the current macro environment is likely to keep risk assets under pressure.


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## divs4ever (26 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Another 2% down as of 1050hrs. Anyone going for a swim?



 i grabbed a few extra EVN 

 maybe something else will hit a target  later


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## waterbottle (26 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> In my view, do not even think buying anything  above 2022 lows, then for me it will be trading not investing until covid lows.
> I expect a btd around our yearly lows then a harsh panic collapse until the feds reverse.they will, buy before indeed if you can time it




Sort of similar to my thinking, except I don't think (hope) we'll go as far as the covid lows. 

Historically, market bottom is reached after the Fed has started cutting. The question then becomes how do we predict that....


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## Dona Ferentes (26 September 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Not yet, but looking at specific stocks rather than the index.
> KH



ditto


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## Country Lad (26 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> ditto



Ditto as well.  Being an old fart, I have enough investment stocks, many bought from up to 4 decades ago giving me the dividend income, so these days I play.  I have seen quite a few downturns and treat them as stock picking time, ignoring where the market is going until I am happy that the trend has turned positive before i look for longer term ones.  

I enjoy looking for the short term (very short term in most cases) opportunities in this sort of market. They may be few & far between because the good ones are hard to spot, but when they do present themselves it can be fun.  Today's DUN is an example.


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## gartley (26 September 2022)

Looking to add to BBUS and BBOZ if the following condition plays out


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## KevinBB (26 September 2022)

gartley said:


> Looking to add to BBUS and BBOZ if the following condition plays out
> 
> 
> 
> ...



4400 is another 30% or so. That's quite a drop.

From memory, BBOZ is quite expensive to hold. If its a sudden drop, then maybe it will be ok, but for a longer term drop it might be better shorting futures.

KH


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## gartley (26 September 2022)

KevinBB said:


> 4400 is another 30% or so. That's quite a drop.
> 
> From memory, BBOZ is quite expensive to hold. If its a sudden drop, then maybe it will be ok, but for a longer term drop it might be better shorting futures.
> 
> KH



I am a short term player. Yes it's a long way down,  but if these conditions are met and support broken and any subsequent rally that re tests support leaves a space between the rally high and the support then this market will get buried thereafter.  The market is going down further and these are bloody crazy times we live in...

The All ordinaries 20 week nominal cycle currently is projected to reach 6222. If this level is met then the market is history because it then generates a new projection based off the 4 year cycle to 4612!!  Cast your eye to the left when the last downside projection on the 4year nominal cycle was generated. It was the pandemic low


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## gartley (26 September 2022)

Wanted to add this chart to last post as it adds weight to what the projection charts suggest,but ran out of time. The following cycles based indicator CD1 I developed for adding to positions when it crosses zero as that's when maximum momentum in a move or swing starts to pick up. This is a monthly chart of the ALL Ordinaries and we are about to cross zero on CD1. Look at what happened on previous crossing to the downside.


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## KevinBB (26 September 2022)

Those charts don't look attractive @gartley - Good thing I rarely do charts or make predictions 

However, I do agree with your sentiment, my systems have me short US equity futures, but am still holding on to my IOZ plus a few other AU equities, just in case I'm wrong, as I have been many times before.

KH


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## qldfrog (26 September 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Sort of similar to my thinking, except I don't think (hope) we'll go as far as the covid lows.
> 
> Historically, market bottom is reached after the Fed has started cutting. The question then becomes how do we predict that....



Covid low a bit pushed.i would go 20% above which after inflation would roughly be actual covid low


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## waterbottle (26 September 2022)

Big dumps today with all things energy. WHC down 12% so far, lithium reeling, WDS down too...


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## UMike (26 September 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> What about an AP 5500P/5400P Credit spread for 20Oct or not low enough ?
> 
> Too early to buy more FMG or WDS ?
> 
> Gunnerguy



Want another 3% off WDS before I get more.
AGL is the one I am interested in yet very unsure of.


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## Gunnerguy (26 September 2022)

WDS down 4% today.
I closed my 6Oct 33CC and rolled to 13Oct 32CC. Held for only 4 days !
I still have a CSP at $26 for 17Nov.

Gunnerguy


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## peter2 (26 September 2022)

I'm looking at specific sectors and the leading stocks in those sectors. I've finally learned to only buy on the right side of the "V" even though it's very tempting buying good stocks cheaper than they were weeks ago. 

The uncomfortable problem with this narrow focus is that even good companies with great outlooks can get hammered in a bear market. If this bear market turns nasty then everything's going to go down much further than we like. The future opportunities will have great R:R potential but only if we exercise some discipline now.


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## frugal.rock (27 September 2022)

Definately more positive signs today.
Quite a few things pointing to a potential end of this current dip. 
For my current thinking, anytime from today to the end of the week will be drawing the bottom, but expect it to be choppy still.
That's a broad bottom based off indexes etc so some stocks will lead, others will lag, as is the market's habit. 
If that condition is successful, I'm then looking at whether it gets anywhere near mid August highs. I don't like current odds of it breaking above that. 
I'll point it out again, but notice the near 2x volume from the covid low on the XSO? 
All that new money has changed market dynamics in this index area.


----------



## divs4ever (28 September 2022)

a fair bit of div. cash flowing into investors pockets ( last week and this week )

 i remain cautious  , and suspect the trend will be lower  UNLESS various Central Banks ( and Governments ) resort to extra stimulus/QE


----------



## CityIndex (4 October 2022)

ASX200 is around session highs at midday, putting on track to break resistance around the key 6600 level. All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see what the reaction to the RBA decision is in a few hours, and whether it can hold this move into the close.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 October 2022)

longer term, some say this cycle of short-term fixes will only keep the wolf from the door for a while. Central banks kept rates way too low, for way too long and now they threaten to take rates too high for too long. And we know what happens; things break (UK Bonds). So will an action, or even a signal, that the Fed slows its rate of lifting be enough to be a circuit breaker? Another possible one is a global coordinated effort to sell U.S $Dollars. But that will take another Plaza Accord. On 15 Nov, G20 meet in Bali. Apart from the odious Putin being in the room, maybe this could be a way forward.


----------



## CityIndex (4 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> longer term, some say this cycle of short-term fixes will only keep the wolf from the door for a while.



This is a great point. Looking at a variety of major global indices trading at or around their lows for 2022, selling pressure on markets has reached an extreme level, and technically, that leaves scope for some sort of bounce. 

However, with the bearish macroeconomic backdrop persisting, upside potential is limited and the time frame of any potential rebound is in question.


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## frugal.rock (4 October 2022)

So who bought the dip? 🙀


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## qldfrog (4 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> So who bought the dip? 🙀
> 
> View attachment 147662



I the perma bear did..😊
SL in place etc but i expect this to be a multi week rebound..a bear one, so limited to the next black or grey swan, but a rebound i try to catch and leave quickly


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## waterbottle (4 October 2022)

I'm in


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## Gretsch (4 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> So who bought the dip? 🙀
> 
> View attachment 147662



What app is that?


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## Gretsch (4 October 2022)

It's the quick and the dead!


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## frugal.rock (4 October 2022)

Gretsch said:


> What app is that?



Not a forum sponsor though, unfortunately.





__





						Loading...
					





					www.selfwealth.com.au


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## aus_trader (4 October 2022)

Does anyone know what caused the late rally/spike in the All Ord's today ?



Was there a big4 merger or a CSL or BHP takeover or something announced around 2.30pm ?


----------



## frugal.rock (4 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Does anyone know what caused the late rally/spike in the All Ord's today ?
> 
> View attachment 147666



RBA interest rate rise at 0.25% ?
I think the punters thought it was going to be 0.5, but if you read between Lowes lines, he hinted it was going to be a quarter.

Cash Rate Target​ Monetary policy decisions involve setting a target for the cash rate.        A media release is issued at 2.30 pm after each Reserve Bank Board meeting, with any change in the cash rate target taking effect the following day.  









						Cash Rate Target
					

Interest Rate Decisions about the cash rate




					www.rba.gov.au


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## aus_trader (4 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> RBA interest rate rise at 0.25% ?
> I think the punters thought it was going to be 0.5, but if you read between Lowes lines, he hinted it was going to be a quarter.



OK, I didn't read between the lines mate. Thanks for the explanation.

I thought the result was as market expected, so didn't really see the RBA decision causing such a spike.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> OK, I didn't read between the lines mate. Thanks for the explanation.
> 
> I thought the result was as market expected, so didn't really see the RBA decision causing such a spike.



yeah, but it was such a buoyant day, why not add a bit extra, when things align. . Only jarring reality is being out of kilter with other Central Banks (but even that can help the market if AUD weakens)


----------



## frugal.rock (4 October 2022)

Gretsch said:


> It's the quick and the dead!



Maybe, I like the westerns. 
Will watch it and see if I can agree. 🧐


----------



## aus_trader (4 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> yeah, but it was such a buoyant day, why not add a bit extra, when things align. . Only jarring reality is being out of kiler with other Central Banks (but even that can help the market if AUD weakens)



My gut feeling is there won't be 0.5 or 0.75 hikes for the rest of the year and into next year. Unless something macro escalates to cause another leg in pushing inflation higher.

Bank of England is giving us a clue as to interest rate hikes slowing.


----------



## rcw1 (4 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Does anyone know what caused the late rally/spike in the All Ord's today ?
> 
> View attachment 147666
> 
> Was there a big4 merger or a CSL or BHP takeover or something announced around 2.30pm ?



Good evening
Reserve Bank announcement??

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## divs4ever (4 October 2022)

bought some extra LNK  in the the early trading ( @ $2.78 )

 but only cautious nibbling  ( am not taking the truck off the blocks yet )


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## Telamelo (5 October 2022)

Should see our ASX market gain another +4% or more today imo


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## frugal.rock (5 October 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Should see our ASX market gain another +4% or more today imo



"Should see" however it's bizarro world.... 🤨🧐









						Bizarro World - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


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## divs4ever (5 October 2022)

and how bizarre it is


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## KevinBB (5 October 2022)

Buy the dip? No, not me.

I'm a sell-the-rally kind of guy.

KH


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## divs4ever (5 October 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Buy the dip? No, not me.
> 
> I'm a sell-the-rally kind of guy.
> 
> KH



i think to idea is you sell in the top half of the rally  as well ( as buying the dip )

 looks like an interesting month in progress  ( just when things couldn't be more bizarre , somehow they manage it )


----------



## KevinBB (5 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i think to idea is you sell in the top half of the rally  as well ( as buying the dip )
> 
> looks like an interesting month in progress  ( just when things couldn't be more bizarre , somehow they manage it )




yes, but ... it was fairly predictable that October would be a wild month.

This is what was posted on this thread:


KevinBB said:


> The only positive thing I can see is that on a long term basis (16 years) _*October is quite a volatile month with a range from High to Low of about 7.5%*_, the second most volatile month of the year, second only to April. _*Hang on to your hats for a wild October ride.*_




We have to embrace October's volatility, just accept that it will happen, and hang on for dear life.

KH


----------



## divs4ever (5 October 2022)

KevinBB said:


> yes, but ... it was fairly predictable that October would be a wild month.
> 
> This is what was posted on this thread:
> 
> ...



 or ... exploit it  ( even when not a trader ) the part i hated about March 2020  was there was too many places to look ( given i had some cash to splash , at the time )

 now this month  so far  has been funky  , sure , but it has also provided a couple of tasty nibbles 

 actually a trader buddy just told me  if the market continues  to go higher for the next two days  dump ( sell ) everything 

 now i am always on the lookout for a sensible reduction opportunity ( but i don't think i will be off-loading everything  , but  i have my eye on a few to trim )


----------



## Gretsch (5 October 2022)

Looking for a rally myself so I can offload some tech stocks I'm holding in favour of dividend paying stocks. 
Maybe REIT's, they're starting to look attractive to me, maybe not to others?


----------



## divs4ever (5 October 2022)

was hoping to trim my coal stocks but moved away from the target range , today 

 am looking for some extras in the REITs  ,  but today was not my day for that  ( so far )

 although maybe some SGP in the after-market


----------



## KevinBB (5 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> now this month so far has been funky , sure , but it has also provided a couple of tasty nibbles



 .... and the month isn't even 6 days old! Plenty more to go yet. Now, whether it is up or down I don't know, but it will go somewhere. And fast.

The reason for saying that I feel investors (generally) are scared at the moment. There is too much going on in the world, everything from wars, to very bad politics, to rising interest rates, for the market to be stable. Also, we are well off highs, especially in the US market, so there will be plenty of bargain hunters around should more volatility-causing news hit.



divs4ever said:


> actually a trader buddy just told me if the market continues to go higher for the next two days dump ( sell ) everything



Kind of agree, but we all have to remember the most relevant saying in share market finance, and that is:

*you have to be in it to win it*​
By dumping everything you have no chance to win, but by holding some, there is a chance of doing rather well. In the past few days I've gone to about 50% cash (in the Aussie broker account), swapped some IOZ for the banks (good move), and sold some IOZ without replacing them (a rediculously bad move). At least I'm still in there.

KH


----------



## divs4ever (5 October 2022)

KevinBB said:


> .... and the month isn't even 6 days old! Plenty more to go yet. Now, whether it is up or down I don't know, but it will go somewhere. And fast.
> 
> The reason for saying that I feel investors (generally) are scared at the moment. There is too much going on in the world, everything from wars, to very bad politics, to rising interest rates, for the market to be stable. Also, we are well off highs, especially in the US market, so there will be plenty of bargain hunters around should more volatility-causing news hit.
> 
> ...



 in SOME holdings i am in a ridiculously good position   ( that i might not ever get again  , assuming the market doesn't go to zero and below ) so i would be adverse  to offloading completely ( and some of those are 'free-carried ' to boot  .. so 100% profit running )

 now IF i am mostly in cash  ( after a sell-down ) where do i put it  ?? bonds are liquid  but currently dangerous , in the bank  maybe liquid and maybe not in extreme stress  .. and March 2020 highlighted a flaw for me .. too many places to watch  , sure i did well .. but could i have done better ?? 

 now technically i could try the inverse ETFs again  (  so when i sell them the credit goes directly into the trading account ) but that will probably need razor -sharp reactions say buy tomorrow and place the sell orders straight into the market ( at a set price ) if GEAR can rise 10% in a day  BBOZ can do that also  on a opposite swing  ( Commsec mightn't be too cool with  that with a basic no frills account )


----------



## aus_trader (6 October 2022)

Put on a couple of trades to see if this rally continues for a while...

Details in the speculative portfolio: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/post-1195289


----------



## Gretsch (6 October 2022)

Could be a reversal today, might continue tomorrow as well.


----------



## Telamelo (6 October 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Could be a reversal today, might continue tomorrow as well.



US market's rebounded late (reversing earlier losses) to finish almost breakeven - perhaps another green day ahead on our ASX with a bit of luck 🤞


----------



## divs4ever (6 October 2022)

( slightly ) green for me ( the market is down a little  )

 king coal is making me look above water


----------



## frugal.rock (6 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Put on a couple of trades to see if this rally continues for a while...



Haven't put on trade's as such, but have bought the dip on *NRZ* and the resuscitated PET
Both small amounts that I'm happy to let sit and fester for months.


----------



## rcw1 (8 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> … now IF i am mostly in cash  ( after a sell-down ) where do i put it  ?? …



Good evening divs4ever

In rcw1 bank account ha ha ha ha

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards 
rcw1


----------



## galumay (8 October 2022)

I am not a market timer, so no interest in buying 'dips', but for those who play the game, this may be relevant to you. 






						Portfolio Review – October 2022 – Mispriced Markets
					






					mispricedmarkets.com
				




In particular I found the visual representation very powerful.


----------



## peter2 (9 October 2022)

@galumay  Nice website with some spectacular results over 20+yrs. Worth reviewing by any prospective value investor. Even this old chart based price action trader can respect the job done by the author. In fact I'd need to lift my game considerably to match those results.


----------



## divs4ever (9 October 2022)

galumay said:


> I am not a market timer, so no interest in buying 'dips', but for those who play the game, this may be relevant to you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 depends  on how well you need to time  ( the market ) i rarely pick a bottom or top ( and that is just sheer luck when i do )  but , say  , a 10% discount on what you think is a 'fair price '  is nice  ( and say, 10% over what you consider a generous price when selling  can be nice )  , this can be done without a twenty year career in studying charts .

 you might argue long term they hardly make  a difference  , but then i would point to the magic of compounding where that extra profit can be deployed elsewhere ( if it didn't buy extra of the original cheap stock )  and i often participate in the DRP where every stock help helps grow the position over time


----------



## galumay (9 October 2022)

Like I said, I am not a market timer.


----------



## frugal.rock (12 October 2022)

galumay said:


> Like I said, I am not a market timer.



There's some pretty nice discount prices out there right now.

When I shop at the supermarket, I look at thing's that are marked down, short expiry dates etc.
A lot of the time, I don't want the product at all, so I don't buy.
If I sometimes would buy  the product, but don't need or want it then, I might buy it anyway and put it in the freezer for another day, purely because it's a bargain.

I bought some more stocks today. 😁


----------



## frugal.rock (12 October 2022)

Seemed to me a slight change in sentiment yesterday and today. 
Some risk coming back on?


----------



## waterbottle (12 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Seemed to me a slight change in sentiment yesterday and today.
> Some risk coming back on?




Too many upcoming risks:

US PPI tonight
US CPI tomorrow
BoE ends gilt buy backs on Friday
US earnings starting on Friday with several companies issuing warnings of earning downgrades
CCP National congress over the weekend
Russia ramping up attacks on Ukraine, reportedly targeting energy infrastructure


----------



## divs4ever (12 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> BoE ends gilt buy backs on Friday



 maybe .. one English commentator is suggesting it will be extended  at least until the end of the month 

 what do pension funds sell  to service margin calls if gilts are illiquid  , if gilt yields spike the Sterling drops  and creates a doom loop  hitting stocks and property as well


----------



## frugal.rock (12 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Too many upcoming risks:



Thanks for those. 
But regardless, what I've stated is from a general observation.

I did muse that perhaps the market was getting bored, and a itchy  trigger finger buying as a result. 

I was just adding at bargain prices. 😬


----------



## frugal.rock (14 October 2022)

Bought a little more yesterday.

Inflation numbers to me indicate a possible top of inflation is very near. With data lag, we may even be over the hump...? Prices at supermarket's have settled, if that's any indication.
The pace of rising has certainly subsided and the market seems to have grasped that and clung on, for dear life it seems.

Interesting day  ahead. 🧐


----------



## ducati916 (14 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Bought a little more yesterday.
> 
> Inflation numbers to me indicate a possible top of inflation is very near. With data lag, we may even be over the hump...? Prices at supermarket's have settled, if that's any indication.
> The pace of rising has certainly subsided and the market seems to have grasped that and clung on, for dear life it seems.
> ...




Mr FR,




Inflation is nowhere near peaking. With economic contraction in Europe, less manufacturing means less goods, means higher prices (reduced supply into static or even falling demand). Supply chains are collapsing (again).

This is most likely shorts taking profits. When you get the news you were looking for, you take profits.

jog on
duc


----------



## divs4ever (14 October 2022)

ducati916 said:


> Mr FR,
> 
> View attachment 148023
> 
> ...



 i see what you are saying  and would  agree if we had free markets , however   i suspect a wave of price fixing ( or hidden subsidies ) of epic proportions is coming  , will such market intervention strategies prevail  ... or will supply remain stunted for a long duration  ( between bankrupted manufacturers and reduced capital investment in productive improvements )

 i think we are heading into a long ( policy created ) depression  or maybe even a major societal collapse 

 cheers


----------



## CityIndex (14 October 2022)

The early rally on the ASX200 run into selling pressure at the downward slopping resistance coming from the highs in August. 

While it will be interesting to see if it can break higher this afternoon, price action on Wall Street tonight will likely determine whether the Aussie market targets a higher high in the coming days, or continues this trajectory lower.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 October 2022)

"About Market Cycles And Human Nature"









						About Market Cycles And Human Nature | Investing.com AU
					

Stocks Analysis by Francesco Casarella/Investing.com covering: . Read Francesco Casarella/Investing.com's latest article on Investing.com Australia.




					au.investing.com


----------



## frugal.rock (14 October 2022)

ducati916 said:


> Inflation is nowhere near peaking. With economic contraction in Europe, less manufacturing means less goods, means higher prices (reduced supply into static or even falling demand). Supply chains are collapsing (again).



It's all a bit subjective duc, but haven't we been annoyed that the tail wags the dog?
EU is now back in its box. 
However, I will keep an eye on Aldi for signs of shortage...
🤐


----------



## frugal.rock (17 October 2022)

I feel the money flowing back to AUD soon.
USD way overbought... some will find it's way back to the EU & Yen, but we're odds on favourites ATM IMO 🤐


----------



## CityIndex (17 October 2022)

After a strong rejection from trendline resistance, it will be interesting to see if the ASX200 manages to find support above last week's lows right around 6630. 

All trading carries risk, and price action is likely to continue tracking Wall Street over the coming days, but this could determine whether we see another retest of the June lows, or if the market can break the downtrend stemming from its highs in August.


----------



## waterbottle (17 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I feel the money flowing back to AUD soon.
> USD way overbought... some will find it's way back to the EU & Yen, but we're odds on favourites ATM IMO 🤐



Fed has been copping flack for the over the high dollar from several commentators. Realistically, it's probably a driving force for inflation in many countries, so if inflation is truly a global problem and they're planning a global solution then they will have to depreciate


----------



## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Fed has been copping flack for the over the high dollar from several commentators. Realistically, it's probably a driving force for inflation in many countries, so if inflation is truly a global problem and they're planning a global solution then they will have to depreciate



 all that means is several major currencies are further down the sewerage pipe  than the US Dollar  ( these modern polymer notes aren't even  useful  when shredded for fertilizer )


----------



## CityIndex (17 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Fed has been copping flack for the over the high dollar from several commentators. Realistically, it's probably a driving force for inflation in many countries, so if inflation is truly a global problem and they're planning a global solution then they will have to depreciate



Strong USD will definitely increase the inflation problem in other countries. Unfortunately, the Fed's priority is American price stability, and judging by their own commentary, they will likely continue to hiking rates until this is achieved. 

However, if the USD's strength begins to significantly hinder their own economy in the way of declining exports, especially from the retail side of things, perhaps the Fed may be inclined to step in and do something to bring the greenback down.


----------



## wayneL (17 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> all that means is several major currencies are further down the sewerage pipe  than the US Dollar  ( these modern polymer notes aren't even  useful  when shredded for fertilizer )



You could shred them up for horse arena surfaces, rather than the polyester they are using at the moment.

( And probably cheaper to be honest  )


----------



## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

wayneL said:


> You could shred them up for horse arena surfaces, rather than the polyester they are using at the moment.
> 
> ( And probably cheaper to be honest  )



well at least they aren't being burnt


----------



## frugal.rock (18 October 2022)

Green bars aplenty today.
When it's risk on for BNPL stocks, I think we may have a rally on our hands.🤨
However, beware the sawtooth whipsaw. If you're not comfortable trading, keep the bench warm, pace the sidelines.
It's not the time to be indecisive or dilly dally around.
A contrarian trade ATM is nickel.
Personally, I'm eying MCR, it's ripe.


----------



## rcw1 (18 October 2022)

Hello Fugal Rock,
Have placed MCR on rcw1 watchlist.  Thanks for that, will delve deeper.
Note the company made the S&P/ASX 300 Index prior to open 19 September 2022.  

Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## frugal.rock (18 October 2022)

"Investor Flows Suggest Belief Market May Have Bottomed - BofA"









						Investor Flows Suggest Belief Market May Have Bottomed - BofA By Investing.com
					

Investor Flows Suggest Belief Market May Have Bottomed - BofA




					au.investing.com


----------



## CityIndex (19 October 2022)

The ASX200 is adding to yesterday's break of the downtrend resistance, and after a couple of tests today, it has finally broken above the weekly R1 pivot around 6800. 

All trading carries risk, but holding this level into the close may allow the index to target a new high for the month, and potentially extend this rebound if overseas sentiment also continues rises.


----------



## frugal.rock (20 October 2022)

5 day results after dip buying.
Of course, after dip buying there has to be; either some selling or some holding.
Consideration of this may be in order today.
I hope others have had a few "chicken dinners" lately!?


----------



## qldfrog (20 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> 5 day results after dip buying.
> Of course, after dip buying there has to be; either some selling or some holding.
> Consideration of this may be in order today.
> I hope others have had a few "chicken dinners" lately!?
> ...



I have a question for you FR, which realm do you play in?
just XAO shares, leveraged ETF, US market, futures, commodities?
the reason i ask is I noticed in the past some of your portfolio daily jumps higher than the highest of the non micro ASX share jumps; which can happen with leverage (direct or via ETF, funds, or futures, options etc..
Note that I am in no way doubting of the truth of your statements/chart let this be clear.
And you are nowhere near my ignore zone ;-)


----------



## frugal.rock (20 October 2022)

Market line on charts is XJO
Trading realm is majority XSO, mainly in XMM, but a little here and there in XKO.
Long only, no leverage. FPO, ETF's, some ADR & CDI. (Only leverage is the occasional as supplied by the product Eg; BBUS, BBOZ etc and not higher than 3% to my knowledge)

Opportunistic, largely chart based trading mostly, but specifically for XSO stocks, FA really helps increase % of wins.

Eg; BEN in the last 2 weeks. Was easily forseeable of a rise of 10% in 4~6 weeks.
I took near 10% in a week or so, and that even missed the effect of BIQ profits/divvy  pulling up all the banks there for a few days.

Opportunities like above only come along every so often, so it's constant "eyes on the fries" to find these "bottom feeder" opportunities.

Recently have been dabbling on US market, but results of that are not shown. Don't like it though. My understanding isn't great of how there market operates and I have grave currency concerns...🤨🤐


----------



## qldfrog (20 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Market line on charts is XJO
> Trading realm is majority XSO, mainly in XMM, but a little here and there in XKO.
> Long only, no leverage. FPO, ETF's, some ADR & CDI. (Only leverage is the occasional as supplied by the product Eg; BBUS, BBOZ etc and not higher than 3% to my knowledge)
> 
> ...



your detailed answer much appreciated.Thanks and i am sure i am not the only one who was interested


----------



## frugal.rock (22 October 2022)

It would appear that yesterday's trading in the US  has triggered "something" or more to the point, the inverse of that, something has "triggered". 
I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.
Prediction based on a "bunch of stuff".
Just thought I'd throw that out there.

This is just me thinking out loud.
If I'm wrong, it's more salt in the wounds received from not being able to trade full time recently due to  commitments.
A bit of egg on face also...🤭🙄

If it turns out I'm right, it's cheese, crackers and caviar with dip for me.


----------



## divs4ever (23 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> It would appear that yesterday's trading in the US  has triggered "something" or more to the point, the inverse of that, something has "triggered".
> I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.
> Prediction based on a "bunch of stuff".
> Just thought I'd throw that out there.
> ...



 but was that something real ( smart investment )  or  some trick  by a plunge protection team 

 Greg Mannarino  suggests  it was   a Fed 'jaw-bone trick '  to lift the market  without actually easing the hikes ( yet ) ( maybe spiced up with some futures buying )

 take care


----------



## Gretsch (23 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> but was that something real ( smart investment )  or  some trick  by a plunge protection team
> 
> Greg Mannarino  suggests  it was   a Fed 'jaw-bone trick '  to lift the market  without actually easing the hikes ( yet ) ( maybe spiced up with some futures buying )
> 
> take care



And there lies the question.


----------



## qldfrog (23 October 2022)

Gretsch said:


> And there lies the question.



Well should we care?
As @frugal.rock mentioned, it will probably trigger a rebound, so all in for a week or so but with ultra tight exit..
I do not play these.
one of my systems out of 3 restarted last week and will remain invested but roughly 25%, the others in cash and discretionary will try to ride that bouncing dead cat.. let's see how it works


----------



## frugal.rock (23 October 2022)

qldfrog said:


> so all in for a week or so but with ultra tight exit..



Yeah, nah. About that.
I don't think anyone should be making trading or investment decisions from my guestimate assertions.

FWIW, I didn't base anything from others opinions, was all just chart stuff. 

The flip side is, it was a possible run for cover buy up. Silver big up, gold good chunk up, Yen good chunk up. Even copper, "a poor man's silver" was up a chunk.
Rising tide floating all but still perhaps a disguise.  Time will tell all.


----------



## qldfrog (23 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Yeah, nah. About that.
> I don't think anyone should be making trading or investment decisions from my guestimate assertions.
> 
> FWIW, I didn't base anything from others opinions, was all just chart stuff.
> ...



Don't worry, not following your guesstimate, but plenty are eager to reinvest and get a bargain 
I would not consider a buy now a long term bargain buy, just rebound.
Systems still mostly out, will try to catch a few rises.
But indeed, please do not follow mine, or FR or others as oracle readings.
The feds might fail to restore temporary confidence, a nuke might blow in ukraine, or even a terrorist attack might happen..these islamists are getting increasingly frustrated by the lack of attention lately....
Ukraine, taiwan, what about my infidels slicing?


----------



## divs4ever (23 October 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Well should we care?
> As @frugal.rock mentioned, it will probably trigger a rebound, so all in for a week or so but with ultra tight exit..
> I do not play these.
> one of my systems out of 3 restarted last week and will remain invested but roughly 25%, the others in cash and discretionary will try to ride that bouncing dead cat.. let's see how it works



kind of   , not being a trader  , i only need the market to move one way  ( in any particular month )  , and work out how i can exploit that  move  ( if lower maybe there is something to buy ,  if higher maybe something  i should reduce )

 however real or fake is a problem  , i might be looking at that move from  the wrong angle  ( say watching commodity stocks when  i should be watching financial stocks  for the opposite move )

 good luck everyone


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 October 2022)

FWIW my actively traded account was down to 3% in shares (97% cash) a few weeks ago but is now back up to 58% in shares. Note that's for my actively traded account only.

There's zero subjectivity in the trading method. It's 100% based on maths which is derived from market data and the buying started on 10 October (based on signal from the previous Friday) and has kept going.

That's not to say it's right and will make a profit but I've been putting money into the market yes.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 October 2022)

Microsoft and Alphabet are due to report on Tuesday, with Amazon and Apple set for Thursday.


----------



## ducati916 (24 October 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> FWIW my actively traded account was down to 3% in shares (97% cash) a few weeks ago but is now back up to 58% in shares. Note that's for my actively traded account only.
> 
> There's zero subjectivity in the trading method. It's 100% based on maths which is derived from market data and the buying started on 10 October (based on signal from the previous Friday) and has kept going.
> 
> That's not to say it's right and will make a profit but I've been putting money into the market yes.




For specifically trading, I also run 2 different systems based on calculated numbers from market data. One is mathematical the other is based on arithmetic. As I'm sure you will appreciate, there is a significant difference between the two.

For me the issue is starting point of calculation (which is the same as an entry point) for rebalancing and of course what specific market and instrument is being traded.

Since we are talking stocks (individual) on this thread, my approach would be mathematical. Currently I sit at 40% exposure long (a little lower than you in a trading account). However my entry point was probably 10 days ago.

Interesting.

jog on
duc


----------



## CityIndex (24 October 2022)

ASX200 has taken Wall Street's cue from Friday and is up just around 2% at around lunchtime. However, it the resistance that formed above 6800 seems like it wants to put up a tough fight, with the index having pared some of its gains just below the October high.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how sentiment develops over the coming days, and whether the ASX can break above its recent multi-week range.


----------



## aus_trader (24 October 2022)

OK that's great to know that Australia is taking the lead from the US markets. Because if it took the lead from Chinese markets, it's not going to be pretty right now.


----------



## Gunnerguy (24 October 2022)

A few large companies in the US reporting this week. I think there's possibly going to be some rapid movements this week ....  in the US, and then affecting OZ.


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> OK that's great to know that Australia is taking the lead from the US markets. Because if it took the lead from Chinese markets, it's not going to be pretty right now.



indeed this is the question, where will the lead come from:from the plunging Chinese index or bouncing US?


----------



## CityIndex (24 October 2022)

qldfrog said:


> indeed this is the question, where will the lead come from:from the plunging Chinese index or bouncing US?



Well, currently seems like the free fall in Chinese equities is dragging other markets lower. FTSE has seen a sharp reversal lower after retesting 7000, and US futures have also turned negative. 

Will be interesting to see if this move holds when Wall Street later tonight.


----------



## divs4ever (24 October 2022)

CityIndex said:


> Well, currently seems like the free fall in Chinese equities is dragging other markets lower. FTSE has seen a sharp reversal lower after retesting 7000, and US futures have also turned negative.
> 
> Will be interesting to see if this move holds when Wall Street later tonight.



 that isn't a totally bad thing for me  , i am trying to increase  exposure to Asia ( ex Japan ) and am doing that via selected ETFs and LICs  , which are dipping a bit currently  ( some are resisting my top-up targets , but some are dancing around  attractively )  

 but YES i am expecting a prolonged period of discomfort , until solid financial  recoveries return  ( without the reliance on bail-outs )


----------



## aus_trader (24 October 2022)

A big disadvantage for us folks living down under is the strength of the US dollar (or is it the weakness in the Aussie dollar) when buying US ETFs. ASX listed US Index ETFs have barely dipped while the actual indices such as the NASDAQ or SP500 have 20% falls. Here's the culprit:


----------



## frugal.rock (24 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Here's the culprit:


----------



## divs4ever (24 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> A big disadvantage for us folks living down under is the strength of the US dollar (or is it the weakness in the Aussie dollar) when buying US ETFs. ASX listed US Index ETFs have barely dipped while the actual indices such as the NASDAQ or SP500 have 20% falls. Here's the culprit:
> 
> View attachment 148447



is that a problem  if we export more , MANUFACTURE  more , and import less  ( i suspect not )


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> ASX listed US Index ETFs have barely dipped while the actual indices such as the NASDAQ or SP500 have 20% falls.



Agreed - currency hedged ETF's might be worth a look though.

Assuming they do what they claim to do then it takes out the currency risk aspect.


----------



## CityIndex (25 October 2022)

CityIndex said:


> Will be interesting to see if this move holds when Wall Street later tonight.



US markets ended up putting in a strong rally overnight, and the ASX200 seems to be continuing to benefit from this as it is retesting a break above this month’s range again today.

Same can’t be said for the Aussie Dollar though, which unsurprisingly felt the weight of the negative sentiment coming out from Chinese markets.

All trading carries risk, and it will be interesting to see what impact tomorrow’s Q3 inflation figures have on local assets.


----------



## aus_trader (25 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> is that a problem  if we export more , MANUFACTURE  more , and import less  ( i suspect not )



The problem is we don't really manufacture any more as we've exported that to Asia. All we do is dig stuff out of the ground to sell, maybe that will benefit in terms of exports.

On the contrary a weak AUD means we'll pay higher for imports. Same goes for buying US equities/ETFs unfortunately, as I mentioned.


----------



## aus_trader (25 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> View attachment 148448



Off topic, but is he keeping wonder woman in the background ? 

...perhaps as a bodyguard ?


----------



## divs4ever (25 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> The problem is we don't really manufacture any more as we've exported that to Asia. All we do is dig stuff out of the ground to sell, maybe that will benefit in terms of exports.
> 
> On the contrary a weak AUD means we'll pay higher for imports. Same goes for buying US equities/ETFs unfortunately, as I mentioned.



 it may shock members to know i am actually  an optimist , true  i have been punched by reality many times  ,

  i see the opportunity  but is Australia too slow to grab it 

 i also so note a whinging campaign   about international  companies  digging up the dirt we are too apathetic  to dig up ourselves  ( in many cases )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 October 2022)

CityIndex said:


> US markets ended up putting in a strong rally overnight, and the ASX200 seems to be continuing to benefit...



Possibly, but the problem with making generalised observations is that current markets are all over the place.

Last night USA was strong, Dow surged 800 pts in a '*broad rally*' and Dow +2.6%, S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.9%, but looking at components, we've had Meta take a haircut, Amazon and Microsoft ditto over the last week. What's it based on? Earnings season and good  companies holding up, consumer spending not yet dropping off ... but growth stocks, usually tech, being hit as interest rates rise; relative valuations are still high, and earnings expectations for them are likely to still come down, still.

In Australia, Materials and mining stocks are getting hammered with iron ore down again, some 0.8% to $US81.85 a tonne. Spot gold in NY down 1.1% to $US1644.86 /oz. Lithium offering hope, though. Banks are reporting and look to hold recent rally.

All the hope of any rally seems to be based on the current FED, RBA, in fact most Central Banks, doing a pivot, or a pause, in the interest rate rises. And then do we worry if they went too far if/ when the pain pushes through and the economy slows.  AUD down 0.6% to 64.11 US cents but off recent lows.

_So, to me, a specific stock situation. Indexes can inform sentiment but other factors will decide stock investment outcomes._


----------



## aus_trader (31 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Possibly, but the problem with making generalised observations is that current markets are all over the place.
> 
> Last night USA was strong, Dow surged 800 pts in a '*broad rally*' and Dow +2.6%, S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.9%, but looking at components, we've had Meta take a haircut, Amazon and Microsoft ditto over the last week. What's it based on? Earnings season and good  companies holding up, consumer spending not yet dropping off ... but growth stocks, usually tech, being hit as interest rates rise; relative valuations are still high, and earnings expectations for them are likely to still come down, still.
> 
> ...



Very good observations  

In fact, with Amazon, Microsoft and Meta/Facebook taking big hits, it's hard to configure how the indices are holding up so well. I can provide a clue however, it's that Forrest Gump's fruit company single handedly holding the NASDAQ and SP500 up...


----------



## divs4ever (31 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Off topic, but is he keeping wonder woman in the background ?
> 
> ...perhaps as a bodyguard ?



 might have the remote control  , so he doesn't wander off too far


----------



## frugal.rock (2 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.
> Prediction based on a "bunch of stuff".
> Just thought I'd throw that out there.



We're at the week and a half point, and around 7% up.
Hopefully Santa comes early in 10.5 hrs  via a 50 points rise by the Fed, rather than the anticipated 75... can only hope... 🙄😬


----------



## divs4ever (2 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> We're at the week and a half point, and around 7% up.
> Hopefully Santa comes early in 10.5 hrs  via a 50 points rise by the Fed, rather than the anticipated 75... can only hope... 🙄😬
> 
> View attachment 148758



yes there is a possibility  the Fed hike  will be 0.50% or less  and we should have a plan for  sudden market  jump

 now i read the data as higher rates are needed  , but the US administration  doesn't agree with my opinion  on economics


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## Captain_Chaza (2 November 2022)

Buying on the DIPS
Only works 'til they Don't
This is CRUEL but TRUE


----------



## divs4ever (2 November 2022)

yes that is why i prefer SMALL buys    , leaving some reserves  in case the dip becomes a plummet ( or i am better buying elsewhere )

 ( and YES the brokerage piles up  )


----------



## Captain_Chaza (2 November 2022)

divs4ever said:


> yes that is why i prefer SMALL buys    , leaving some reserves  in case the dip becomes a plummet ( or i am better buying elsewhere )
> 
> ( and YES the brokerage piles up  )



Why do you need SMALL Buys?


----------



## divs4ever (2 November 2022)

just the way i do it ,  i  pick a 'good value' price ,  and wait to see if a second buy is wise  ( for over a year in BSL's case )

 bigger buys ( when i do it ) either leaves me with a part-filled order , or done  at what proves to be  a price too high 

 i also ascribe to the cockroach theory  , you might only see one  when the price drops ( market ann. ) , but there could be more hiding ( 'blue chips' are notorious for that )  ( BIG losses missed include Slater & Gordon  and Myer ,   sure i lost on them but it could have been worse )


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## Dona Ferentes (3 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> We're at the week and a half point, and around 7% up.
> Hopefully Santa comes early



_Santa has been slayed_

Australian shares looking for a drop at open this Thursday. ASX futures were down 113 points (1.62%) to 6876 overnight, though losses briefly dropped to less than 20 points immediately after the Fed statement was released.

Shares in New York whipsawed to close sharply lower amid disappointment that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell was not clearer on the rate outlook.


> Initially, the Fed’s latest policy statement was viewed as positive for equities and reinforced by Powell who told reporters early in his press conference that the time to slow rate increases may come _“as soon as the next meeting or the one after that_”.  As the press conference continued, however, Powell said it was “_very premature”_ to consider pausing rate increases.




_ Key takeout - ambiguity kills_


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## Gretsch (3 November 2022)

Seems to me that buying this dip is more like buying the slide. 
Has anyone mentioned to sell the peaks?


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## frugal.rock (5 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Santa has been slayed



Santa has been sleighed in last night...
Milk and cookies left out for him have been eaten.


----------



## UMike (5 November 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Seems to me that buying this dip is more like buying the slide.
> Has anyone mentioned to sell the peaks?



Yea.





						Selling the Bump on ASX
					

As the resident bottom picker there is a time you have to pick the "Bump" to realise your gains.  Not so much looking for the top..... That is something at times unattainable.    I mean whose to say this is the top but if you don't take a profit now then how can you confidently but again on the...




					www.aussiestockforums.com


----------



## divs4ever (5 November 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Seems to me that buying this dip is more like buying the slide.
> Has anyone mentioned to sell the peaks?



 my aim is to accumulate   ( and try to keep a little spare cash  , for extra investment opportunities )

 however those  who buy  without a 'comfortable buffer ' SHOULD consider taking SOME cash off the table  ( depending on the likelihood of buying extra or back in  at a lower price than what you think is 'fair-value ' )

 currently  i am up more than 600% on some stocks  , and sure i have rescued the original investment capital  , but should i sell more ( thoughtlessly ) hoping the stock will drop 80%  so i can load up again 

 now some stocks  QBE is my fav to 'channel trade'   and sure every couple of few  it will drop ( on some worries ) and in a year or two  rally enough for it to take some cash off the table 

now KevinBB could probably do the same with his IOZ holding ( if he chooses to ) but you have to be careful  what you pick to play that game  , some  just slide and slide ( or rally and rally )

 and YES   dip then slide further happens to me fairly often  , so a buy a small parcel now ( in the dip ) and maybe another small parcel if it slides another 20% ( ish ) lower ( and maybe  more if another 20% slide )

 but you have to careful  which stock  you pick ( some are in a one-way trip to disaster )


----------



## frugal.rock (6 November 2022)

divs4ever said:


> my aim is to accumulate   ( and try to keep a little spare cash  , for extra investment opportunities )
> 
> however those  who buy  without a 'comfortable buffer ' SHOULD consider taking SOME cash off the table  ( depending on the likelihood of buying extra or back in  at a lower price than what you think is 'fair-value ' )
> 
> ...



Love your work divs.
I like Abe Simpson and you remind me of him.


----------



## divs4ever (6 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Love your work divs.
> I like Abe Simpson and you remind me of him.




 well my secret to few very wrinkles   is ...... scars ( LOTS of scars )

so folks can endure  long and winding  stories OR help make Johnson & Johnson  much richer while learning to be your own paramedic ( the ambulance is usually minutes away/sometimes an hour)

 since i do not hold shares in J&J   but do hold shares in HLS and PFP  , i do have a slight bias ( so do NOT give medical advice )

 ( am still waiting for a buy-in price for IVC as well )


----------



## frugal.rock (11 November 2022)

Well if we follow the lead, might be in for a cracker day. 
Over 22 alerts to the upside set off by various things last night on US markets.


----------



## frugal.rock (11 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.



Today marks the 15th trading day since this "prediction", or in other words, the last day of week 3.
The choppy volatility period we are in, historically/ statistically will be followed by a down cycle, but, could this time be different?
Will need to refresh where my heads at with the market over the weekend, as have been generally busy elsewhere. Get in tune again, and besides, do you sit and watch a yeast dough rise ? 

US markets closed strongly; tech and small caps in particular, crypto bouncing back after FTX thing, CPI number lower than expected; what's the weather forecast...when is the wind expected to change direction next?


----------



## divs4ever (11 November 2022)

a push for Fetterman  to be next US President   to replace Biden ( or at least contest  the 2024  Presidential race )

and THAT is where the economy is going in the West


----------



## qldfrog (11 November 2022)

a shame as I wanted to buy IOZ yesterday and checked Had no more free  cash in the account I wanted to use so thought: I have to rearrange this week end.I could have made a buy and a sell for a quick 2%
instead I sold half of 2 volatility plays with big losses (1000s) after a miserly 150$ gain over the week.
Thanksfully other systems and discretionary flying  with the tide
Yet inflation is not dead..yet? or ever?


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## divs4ever (11 November 2022)

remember inflation is anytime  prices rise ( actually when they print extra money , ) so even a CPI rise of 0.0001% is still inflation , besides you should be expecting tax claw-backs in one fashion or another  , to amplify  the pain  , to atone for all the good-times we have had in the last two and a half years ( remember them ?? )

so far discounted in the inflation narrative is the weak local currency ( even against NZ )


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## frugal.rock (12 November 2022)

This portfolio has been relatively unattended and basically sitting. 
A few rotations in this month shown, but buy and sells could be counted on one hand, perhaps just onto two. Nice to see it rising out of the index mud like a lotus, just not as vertical.
Nearly half (7.6%) of the 16% rise over the month shown has come in the last week.

Will peruse more data over the weekend in attempt to get a finger on the  pulse. 
Hopefully everyone is getting a lift here or there?


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## divs4ever (12 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> This portfolio has been relatively unattended and basically sitting.
> A few rotations in this month shown, but buy and sells could be counted on one hand, perhaps just onto two. Nice to see it rising out of the index mud like a lotus, just not as vertical.
> Nearly half (7.6%) of the 16% rise over the month shown has come in the last week.
> 
> ...



 i was kind of hoping for a dip  , i am not giving up yet   ( rising shares prices when in the DRP isn't my friend either )

 cheers


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## Gretsch (12 November 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i was kind of hoping for a dip  , i am not giving up yet   ( rising shares prices when in the DRP isn't my friend either )
> 
> cheers



When that happens and I get the opportunity, sometimes (not all the time) I take the money instead.


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## divs4ever (13 November 2022)

my strategy  early on  was to push accumulation of shares 

 now that i have retired  i am choosing partial participation in the DRP or cash  on new shares more often ( sometimes the DRP deal is just compelling )

 the problem with cash at this time  is , where do you park it sensibly ?? ( sometimes you can , sometimes not )


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## frugal.rock (26 November 2022)

2 weeks on. Results are not bad but ended up being nearly a flat week.


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## rcw1 (30 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Hello Fugal Rock,
> Have placed MCR on rcw1 watchlist.  Thanks for that, will delve deeper.
> Note the company made the S&P/ASX 300 Index prior to open 19 September 2022.
> 
> ...



Good evening Fugal Rock

Watched MCR patiently for six weeks or so. 
Will try an execute a fast trade tomorrow if all the ducks line up, however, have it on the rcw1 'numbers' list.

rcw1 notes the announcements yesterday (29/11/22), so perfect timings for mine:

the successful firing and extraction of the first production stope at the Company’s 100%-owned Cassini Nickel Mine in Western Australia; and
Company presentation with some good articulation about the company.
According to the Australian Government Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Office of the Chief Economist,
_Nickel exports reached $4.4 billion in 2021–22. Export earnings are forecast to rise to $5.1 billion in 2022–23, moreover, Australia’s Nickel export volumes are estimated to rise from 157,000 tonnes in 2021–22 to 202,000 tonnes in 2023–24, supported by the need for Australian nickel for the transition to low-emissions technologies._



			https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/minisite/static/ba3c15bd-3747-4346-a328-6b5a43672abf/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2022/index.html
		


Quarterly ended 30 September 2022:

Total Financing Facility:  $30 485 000
Cash and cash equivalents at end of quarter:   $54 827 000
Estimated quarters of funding available:  13

Thanks again for your posts on MCR and have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1




Thanks for


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## frugal.rock (30 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Watched MCR patiently for six weeks or so.
> Will try an execute a fast trade tomorrow if all the ducks line up, however, have it on the rcw1 'numbers' list.



Good luck with that. I also thought it was looking ripe about now.
Dropped like a stone after I mentioned it ! Ha!


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## frugal.rock (30 November 2022)

Well, it seems as if the market is whipping itself into a bit of a frenzy.
As I write, it's risk on. I guess it depends on what Powell says later on.

Noticed the likelihood of a 0.75 bps has increased a little.
Felt I would drop this here to see what sentiment says after the drivel speech.
Gold, silver, copper, oil, zinc, all up.


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## divs4ever (5 December 2022)

i notice that Commsec  has consensus ( almost 100% )  of a 0.25%  rise  , with the lone outlier picking  a 0.15%  rise 

 personally i was thinking  0.40%   or 0.50%

 take care


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## frugal.rock (5 December 2022)

Fed rate monitor update.
Found in investing.com app


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## UMike (8 December 2022)

Took A Dip at 7.05 about half from my QBE Sale total


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## frugal.rock (21 December 2022)

Seeing a few stocks looking like fair bargains at the moment, when considering a longer term horizon.

Xi signalling to Russia to end the war, China backing out of zero stupid policy and the well entrenched start of the maniacal (arguably) green transition, all leans in to a new bull market argument, soon enough.  There's always unwritten caveats in life though.

I've lost track of where we are with semiconductors, but my thoughts were eventually the chippies would have a good run again.
Other thoughts lead to copper, zinc, nickel, cobalt,  vanadium and phosphates/ fertiliser & battery anodes. Let's not forget graphite.

Just a few thoughts out loud.
Merry Christmas and happy new year to all. 🍷🥳🍺🍻🥂🍾🥃🍸🍹🍶☕🍼


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## divs4ever (21 December 2022)

not enough dip for me ( in most places )

 good luck 

hope you get your share of the gifts


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## Gretsch (22 December 2022)

Not enough cash for me to buy anything. Still, I’m skeptical of a bull run any time soon.


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## eskys (22 December 2022)

2 stocks at their year low yesterday are SHV and CKF..... will they retreat further is anyone's guess


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## Gretsch (22 December 2022)

Been watching CKF for a while now, might jump on it soon 🤨


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## frugal.rock (22 December 2022)

Had dinner at CKF's newest Australian KFC store last night... they stuffed up the order.  Kids these days...🤪


----------



## Telamelo (22 December 2022)

I luckily went "all in on BC8 @ 0.30c the other week" & couldn't have timed it any better   early xmas gift lol 🤣


----------



## eskys (22 December 2022)

SHV is a painful one to trade........risk is higher than reward. Look at the volume of each trade


----------



## dyna (22 December 2022)

GWA is another pain to watch, too.
low volumes all day and no interest from the Insto's , after the 4 pm close.


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## eskys (22 December 2022)

Waste of time watching a non performer, dyna. I'm giving this one the flick now....wasted  yesterday watching it (that's the only way for me to find out how each stock behaves)..........still of the opinion that in bad times, go for the best........the proven. Good luck, dyna, Merry Christmas!


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## divs4ever (22 December 2022)

eskys said:


> 2 stocks at their year low yesterday are SHV and CKF..... will they retreat further is anyone's guess



i bought some extra SHV  earlier in the week (  at 3.95 )

will probably start thinking about  a further buy about 3.50 or less 

 plenty of risk [ to the downside  in share price]  to be sure , but can you count on a 'load up the truck ' moment 

CKF ??  not me , have had too many ordinary experiences there  , maybe RBD ( i don't hold )  is the better play spreads out it's array of franchises


----------



## eskys (22 December 2022)

Both made new lows today, divs, but closed well. Watched SHV after my return from the shops after 3pm. Depth looking better this afternoon. Find this stock  volatile and unpredictable; appeared more stable this afternoon (don't know what it was doing this morning after my last post).. it's closed higher than your purchase price, so that's good news.


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## Gretsch (22 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> CKF ??  not me , have had too many ordinary experiences there  , maybe RBD ( i don't hold )  is the better play spreads out it's array of franchises



Yep, a bad experience can leave a bad taste in your mouth, but RBD is one I’ve never heard of.


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## divs4ever (22 December 2022)

RESTAURANT BRANDS NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ORDINARY FULLY PAID FOREIGN EXEMPT NZX

Restaurant Brands NZ Limited (RBD) is involved in the operation of quick service and takeaway restaurant concepts in New Zealand, Australia, California, and Hawaii (including Saipan and Guam)

 the usual issues being an NZ stock on the ASX , no franking , low liquidity , but has some Taco Bell franchises in Hawaii among the assets ( they don't stick to just one brand )

 ( i do not hold , but do have on the watch-list )


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## rcw1 (22 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> RESTAURANT BRANDS NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ORDINARY FULLY PAID FOREIGN EXEMPT NZX
> 
> Restaurant Brands NZ Limited (RBD) is involved in the operation of quick service and takeaway restaurant concepts in New Zealand, Australia, California, and Hawaii (including Saipan and Guam)
> 
> ...



Good afternoon divs4ever
What happened on or about 20 October 2022??  Nothing in the RBD thread...
Couldn't find an appropriate announcement which would decimate the SP ...  maybe rcw1 dreaming...

kind regards
rcw1


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## frugal.rock (22 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I feel the money flowing back to AUD soon.
> USD way overbought... some will find it's way back to the EU & Yen, but we're odds on favourites ATM IMO 🤐



Above was 17th October. Was certainly an inflection point.











Equity outflows at a 3 month high recently, with inflows back into bonds gaining traction, in order of global, corporate then government.
Asian and European equities have also seen recent inflows, but the winner of inflows appears to have been the money market funds and energy.
Haven't been keeping tabs on things lately, but hopefully catch up over the break. 
All funds were pulled out from the US late October. Recommendations were made privately to buy Yen, but hands got sat on instead, out of apathy. Meh.


----------



## divs4ever (23 December 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon divs4ever
> What happened on or about 20 October 2022??  Nothing in the RBD thread...
> Couldn't find an appropriate announcement which would decimate the SP ...  maybe rcw1 dreaming...
> 
> ...



there was this on the 26th 

26 October 2022
 ASX/NZX Restaurant Brands Sales up 32.3% with Roll Over of COVID-19 Lockdowns

 Restaurant Brands’ total sales for the third quarter to 30 September 2022 increased to $322.2 million (up 32.3% over the equivalent period last year), as sales recovered from the impacts of the 2021 COVID19 restrictions in New Zealand and Australia. Worldwide inflationary pressures have continued from last quarter, with the company still experiencing significant cost inflation across all regions. The company continues to implement price increases where possible in response to these increased costs. Total year to date sales reached $907.1 million (an increase of 15.7% on the prior year). Total sales were supported by the inclusion of 20 new stores (to 372 stores in total), lower levels of COVID-19 disruption and the strengthening US and Australian dollars over the prior year. New Zealand Third quarter sales for New Zealand were $137.6 million, up 43.9% in total and 2.2% on a same store basis. Prior year trading was impacted by Government-mandated trading restrictions. Adjusting the prior year sales to account for an estimated $26 million of sales lost due to COVID-19 restrictions, sales increased by 13.1% during the quarter. All brands showed sales growth, with staff isolation requirements reducing as COVID-19 restrictions continue to be eased and overall case numbers drop. 
Total year to date sales were $389.4 million, an increase of 16.3% on the prior year and 1.6% on a same store basis. Store numbers increased by two during the quarter to 140 stores, following the opening of new Taco Bell stores in Botany, Auckland and near Christchurch Airport. 
Australia
 Australia’s sales for the third quarter were $A65.5 million ($NZ73.1 million), an increase of 23.6% in total (local currency). Total sales growth over the prior year is distorted by the impact of COVID-19 Government restrictions imposed during 2021. 
Same store sales were up 10.4% (local currency). Mall and in-line inner city store sales continued to recover towards pre-COVID-19 sales levels.
 Total year to date sales were $A188.4 million ($NZ206.5 million). This is an increase of 12.3% on a total basis on the prior year and 5.6% on a same store basis. Store numbers increased by one during the quarter to 82 following the opening of a new Taco Bell store in Chatswood, Sydney.
 Hawaii 
Sales for the third quarter in Hawaii were $US39.9 million ($NZ65.1 million), showing growth of 7.7% in total and 2.6% on a same store basis (local currency). Hawaii trading continues to be strong, with sales growing past pre-pandemic levels. The full reintroduction of the Taco Bell Mexican Pizza Taco has exceeded sales expectations and is driving sales growth into the fourth quarter. Total year to date sales were $US115.9 million ($NZ180.3 million), an increase of 5.7% on a total basis on the prior year and 2.8% on a same store basis. Store numbers increased by one to 75 stores during the quarter with the opening of a new Taco Bell store in Kilauea.
 California
 California’s sales in the third quarter were $US28.5 million ($NZ46.4 million), an increase of 3.0% on a total basis but a decrease of 3.3% on a same store basis (local currency). Same store sales have reduced on the prior year in the absence of Government stimulus payments and with Californian consumer spending falling in the face of high inflation levels. Total year to date sales were $US84.3 million ($NZ130.9 million), an increase of 1.7% on a total basis on the prior year but a decrease of 3.0% on a same store basis.
 Store numbers increased by one during the quarter to 75 stores following the opening of a new KFC store in Ridgecrest.

 Authorised by:

 no specific ann . closer to the 20th 

Oz trading volume  gives no hints 


27/10/202210.78010.78010.78010.780-1.190-9.946020/10/202211.97011.97011.97011.9700.0000.00219/10/202211.97011.97011.97011.970-0.020-0.173718/10/202211.99011.99011.99011.990-0.410-3.3110012/10/202212.40012.40012.40012.4000.0000.00111/10/202212.40012.40012.40012.4000.0000.003


 since trading is so light  i would guess someone impatient to leave  , less than 300 shares traded in October doesn't scream 'leaky ship '


----------



## qldfrog (23 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Above was 17th October. Was certainly an inflection point.
> 
> View attachment 150812
> View attachment 150813
> ...



Good point FR.
I bought a little bit of yen but too early,and shifted USD to CHF in time but to no major big win vs AUD .
At least i am not losing overall.
It is a hard market to sail.
Especially as medium term currency play..i am not day trading fluctuations,just trying to smooth assets variations via diversified currencies.plenty of aud exposure thru RE and living here,...


----------



## eskys (23 December 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Good point FR.
> I bought a little bit of yen but too early,and shifted USD to CHF in time but to no major big win vs AUD .
> At least i am not losing overall.
> It is a hard market to sail.
> Especially as medium term currency play..i am not day trading fluctuations,just trying to smooth assets variations via diversified currencies.plenty of aud exposure thru RE and living here,...



Some shifted CHF to AUD some months ago. 

Our market is liquid. Overseas money coming into our share market. Noticed more transacted pre market today, mostly EP and EC


----------



## Telamelo (23 December 2022)

I've been accumulating some IVR (biggest silver deposit in Oz)... noting recent placement done & dusted @ 0.042c  (plenty of drilling & exploration scheduled in 2023) dyor


----------



## frugal.rock (28 December 2022)

Hopefully individual stocks post's get put in their own thread, as that's where people will go looking for 'em. 🤨

Industrial metals running, copper eased off the throttle, but $4 is looming.




Badger dance.


----------



## frugal.rock (6 January 2023)

Well, not sure if I have this fundamentally correct, but I bought some yesterday and today.
1 in Food/ Beverage (infant formula) area, the other an explorer of gold, base metals, lithium etc in WA.


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## frugal.rock (7 January 2023)

Very few trades, really just a few rotations- cutting out the deadwood and deadheads seems to have eeked out a profitable week, mostly from the rising tide as I'm largely buy n hold these days. 

Fingers crossed for the US market to end in positive territory tonight. Lots of data out. 😬😱 
Some simple TA has this as another brief spike before things turn down again, but as said, it can all turn on a dime.


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## frugal.rock (7 January 2023)

With thanks to @bigdog from his thread

The first bit of a daily report in overnight US markets.

I've highlighted what's important to me.
It doesn't matter how I interpret data and deliberate on a forecast, it's ultimately how the market reacts.

Russell 2000 is generally the equivalent of the small caps index XSO on the ASX however there's a lot less stocks than 2000 in the XSO, which is predominantly my playground.



bigdog said:


> Wall Street rallies on rate hopes, notches gain for the week​By STAN CHOE and ALEX VEIGA
> 
> Stocks rallied after a shaky start and closed with broad gains Friday as *some mixed readings *on the U.S. economy *stoked hope* on Wall Street that inflation may keep cooling and the Federal Reserve may ease up on its interest rate hikes.
> 
> The S&P 500 rose 2.3%, marking its first winning week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.1% and the Nasdaq composite added 2.6%. *Small-company stocks also rose, lifting the Russell 2000 index 2.3% higher.*





frugal.rock said:


> Some simple TA has this as another brief spike before things turn down again, but as said, it can all turn on a dime.




Small caps promotions by the foolish ones.








						4 reasons to stick with battered small-cap ASX shares
					

Is it horrifying to look at your smaller cap ASX shares right now? Here's a pep talk to get you through a rough 2022.




					www.fool.com.au


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## divs4ever (7 January 2023)

just watch the debt levels on those small caps ( they are less likely to be brother/sister-in-law to a senior bank exec. )


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## frugal.rock (Monday at 9:45 PM)

Stockbailx said:


> YOUR DREAMING!



Pinch me then Darlene... I'm dreaming.


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## aus_trader (Tuesday at 12:58 AM)

Agree it's been almost nothing but pain in the small cap space in the year that passed. I think I did OK to stay alive and preserve my capital in the Speculative Stock Portfolio, which is predominantly aimed at the small caps space.

This year would be a challenging one as well according to most of the investment experts, although a few are cautiously optimistic. So will have to be very picky with any trades that I put on...


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