# Tipping Competition for Full CY 2016



## Joe Blow (16 December 2015)

I thought I would get this thread started so those interested in entering the 2016 competition could start thinking about which stocks they would like to enter.

The rules for the 2016 full year stock tipping competition are as follows:


Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
No stocks that are trading at less than $0.01 on the day of entry may be entered.
A stock must have traded at least $10,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
The competition will run from Monday, 4 January 2016 to Friday, 30 December 2016.
Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Thursday, 31 December 2015.
Entries close at midnight on Thursday, 31 December 2015.
Entries may not be changed after they have been entered.

I haven't decided on the prizes yet but will make an announcement soon. However, there will be prizes for the first three placegetters.

Entries are now open. Please enter at your convenience by posting your entries in this thread.


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## Muschu (16 December 2015)

Thanks Joe... I have been lazy about posting and will try to improve... 

Haven't entered a comp for some time... So just for fun [and with inordinate hope]:

HZR
ELX
PRO
PGC
NAN


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## PZ99 (16 December 2015)

Hi. I'll go with 

ANZ
PRG
BBN
SYD
CLH

Merry Xmas y'all


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## Purple XS2 (20 December 2015)

Quick picks for 2016:

AHZ  BLT  EOS  QHL  UXC

Thanks Joe!

P


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## VSntchr (20 December 2015)

My picks:
*RMD, CCP, SRX, CAT, RXP
*
A mix of quality and speculative growth.


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## shouldaindex (20 December 2015)

Fun fact from the 2015 competition - STO was the most popular pick and lost over 50%.


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## Tom32 (27 December 2015)

while I am not carrying many shares right now (15pc) I am holding some of each of the following, so I'll pick these:

GFY
FLT
CPU
SEK
CSL

Take this opportunity to thank the asf community and owner for the insights in 2015.


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## nulla nulla (27 December 2015)

I am in. I'll try a bit of spread on some of this years under performers expecting improvement in 2016.

*anz*
*bhp*
*sgh*
*tls*
*wow*


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## Nortorious (29 December 2015)

I'll be in.

Will try do some analysis at the end of today and get my tips in before I head off to the beach.

All the best for 2016 ASFers


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## skc (29 December 2015)

My picks for 2016

APX
DSX
IDT
QMS
VIT


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## Craton (29 December 2015)

Sounds like fun, picking just five out of the hundreds that meet the criteria. 

*AMP, EVN, NTC, STO, TGR* for me thanks Joe.


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## Paavfc (29 December 2015)

SGQ, SMR, TPP, KDR, ENR.

All mining related species, banking on a weaker USD and world growth...


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## explod (29 December 2015)

NST
MOY
RMS
CYP
MML

I feel this may be the year of a solid rise in the Aussie gold price.  Drop in our dollar and low mining fuel costs could continue and help production costs.


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## explod (29 December 2015)

CYP a therapeutics company that I had on my list,  rest are goldies


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## peter2 (29 December 2015)

*BAL* - this could end up anywhere
*BOL* - low priced recovery potential (suitable for tipping comp only)
*SEN* - online security is a growing concern, if only SEN can develop something good.
*SMA* - growing business in China
*SVW* - recovery in oil/gas late 2016?


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## Nortorious (29 December 2015)

Five stocks for the 2016 tipping comp below thanks Joe:

AGL
BAL
PNV
REA
WAX

A few solid trenders plus a couple of potential rockets...


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## jbocker (30 December 2015)

Thanks Joe.
My Picks...
*SMA 
STO
GGG
ORG
S32*


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## shouldaindex (30 December 2015)

Just going to pick contrarian stocks, without exposure to commodities / finance / health regulation:

SGH
DSH
SPO
IMF
AHY


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## rcm617 (30 December 2015)

Picks for 2016

ADA
AHZ
CLH
HZN
TRY


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## Klogg (30 December 2015)

LAA
BSA
SDI
CGS
CAT


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## robusta (31 December 2015)

Thanks Joe

ALU - Altium
ICQ - ICar Asia
MWR - MGM Wireless
DNA - Donaco International
AWN - Arowana International


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## pixel (31 December 2015)

DYE
EOS
LOM
TLG
VSC

Thanks, Joe


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## mcgrath111 (31 December 2015)

SPO  
SGH  
s32   
CSL   
ANZ   


Thanks!


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## myrtie100 (31 December 2015)

MIG
ISX
BNO
ALU
IFN


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## odds-on (31 December 2015)

Hi Joe,

AHG
FLT
JBH
TAH
WOW

Cheers


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## trillionaire#1 (31 December 2015)

VIC
SRT
LGD
SXY
RFN

Thanks Joe.


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## Ijustnewit (1 January 2016)

To the interest of others from the mainland and myself I have decided to put my money where my mouth is and go 100 % Tassie.

BAL Bellamys ( Dairy )
HUO Huon Aquaculture ( Fish )
TGR Tassal ( Fish )
MYS MyState ( Financial )
WBA Webster ( Walnuts )

Thanks Joe


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## Joe Blow (1 January 2016)

Due to the timing of new year this (last?) year I have decided to extend the deadline for entries until midnight on Sunday, January 3rd.


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## systematic (1 January 2016)

Ijustnewit said:


> To the interest of others from the mainland and myself I have decided to put my money where my mouth is and go 100 % Tassie.
> 
> BAL Bellamys ( Dairy )
> HUO Huon Aquaculture ( Fish )
> ...





Ha!  Nice one!  That reminds me of a paper I read earier this year...there is a genuine bias to investing in companies closer to home - and that's at the state level, not just domestic vs international.  Love it!


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## drillinto (2 January 2016)

Five for 2016: AAC - BLY - LOM - MTA - OZL


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## Logique (2 January 2016)

Thanks for the extension Joe.

I'm hoping my 2016 picks do better than last year!

CGF - Challenger 
CPU - Computershare
MQG - Macquarie Group
WES - Wesfarmers
VOC - Vocus Communications


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## Eragon (2 January 2016)

MLT
SRT
LGD
SXY
RFN

Thanks.


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## So_Cynical (2 January 2016)

Following my winning formula from last year i have reviewed firstly my portfolios and secondly my watchlists for stocks that look cheap, are exposed to transition and have potential, have come up with the following in no particular order.

 MXI - MaxiTRANS (Good business still in transition)
 TRY - Troy Resources (Solid producer, gold set for a turn around)
 APY - Azonto Petroleum (Reverse takeover shell, pure speculation)
 RFX - Redflow (Has niche product for industry in transition)
 TPI - TPI Enterprises (Business in transition, Narcotic Raw Material)
You will notice a theme of transition, the market dosent like change - i however do, this year im being a lot more speculative as i thought i was to conservative last year.

Good luck to all and thanks again joe for making this comp official.


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## apm (2 January 2016)

My entries:

1) CAJ
2) HSN
3) MVF
4) RXP
5) YOW

I assume here that the "$10,000 in trade value in the past five days" rule to mean that the total trade value for all the past 5 trading days put together should be greater than 10K. Not that >10K must have been traded in each of the past 5 days. Otherwise my #4 would be an invalid entry.


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## leyy (3 January 2016)

Thanks for the extension Joe.

My picks are:

1) FLN
2) CAJ
3) CAT
4) DWS
5) WEB


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## systematic (3 January 2016)

Thanks Joe!

RIS Richfield International
FRM Farm Pride Foods
CKF Collins Foods
STS SRG Limited
SDM Sedgman


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## Joe Blow (4 January 2016)

Entries have now closed in the 2016 calendar year stock tipping competition. Thank you to all those who have entered.

Like the monthly stock tipping competition, I have decided to award cash prizes to the top three placegetters: 

1st Place: $200
2nd Place: $100
3rd Place: $50

Please use this thread to discuss the competition as it progresses. I will endeavour to provide monthly updates as soon as possible after the end of each month.


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## Logique (4 January 2016)

Prizes, wow that's very generous Joe.

It will add interest that's for sure. So Cynical has been generous this year, with some speculative picks, so there may be hope for the rest of us!


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## mcgrath111 (8 January 2016)

Generous indeed!

Just want to add, by the look of the market - All my positions were meant to be shorted...


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## systematic (8 January 2016)

mcgrath111 said:


> Generous indeed!
> 
> Just want to add, by the look of the market - All my positions were meant to be shorted...




Agreed, thanks Joe!

Hey, they would have been fun - shoulda had a comp for the 5 worst stocks as well!  Next year...


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## Craton (1 February 2016)

systematic said:


> Agreed, thanks Joe!
> 
> Hey, they would have been fun - shoulda had a comp for the 5 worst stocks as well!  Next year...



+1 re. prizes up for grabs. Cheers Joe!

5 worst stocks eh. Be just as hard as picking five winners but an interesting exercise all the same.


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## systematic (4 February 2016)

Skaffold produces Money Magazine's Top 5 stocks for each year, so for interest I'll post in this thread:

*FLT * Flight Centre
*3PL * 3P Learning
*NCK * Nick Scali
*SIQ * Smartgroup
*MPL * Medibank Private


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## peter2 (7 February 2016)

End of January update of the yearly competition. 

Explod (+16.1%): has bolted to the early lead with his cry of "Gold,Gold Gold" echoing around the stadium and is the only contestant to have all five tips in the green. A stellar month for the "goldbug". 

In second place is systematic (+8.9%), followed in third by Paavfc (+6.0%). 

Please check the spreadsheet for any errors (especially on the codes and entry prices). 

ps: 'm keeping an eye on the XAO index and a few ETFs.


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## So_Cynical (7 February 2016)

peter2 said:


> End of January update of the yearly competition.
> 
> Explod (+16.1%): has bolted to the early lead with his cry of "Gold,Gold Gold" echoing around the stadium and is the only contestant to have all five tips in the green. A stellar month for the "goldbug".



Gold indeed, i included one.


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## skc (7 February 2016)

peter2 said:


> Please check the spreadsheet for any errors (especially on the codes and entry prices).





DSH's performance might be a bit worse than what you have put in there...


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## shouldaindex (8 February 2016)

How bad are my picks, my best is DSH in a trading halt.


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## nulla nulla (8 February 2016)

Equal third last after just one month. Thankfully there are 11 months to go for these turkeys to get their act together.


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## Nortorious (8 February 2016)

This is a great scoresheet. Thanks for pulling it together.

It's also interesting looking at the XAO versus the performance of the five stocks we have each picked. Lots of red on that scoreboard and I'm expecting the aussie market to continue lower in the coming weeks/months.

Where it will be by end of Dec is a flip of a coin!


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## peter2 (19 February 2016)

Will you have a look at this!  After only seven weeks the leader has exploded ahead. 
The rest of us will need a year to peg him back.


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## peter2 (3 March 2016)

*EOM Feb update*:  The XAO index fell 2.0% during Feb.

Leader:  explod:  An even better month, a spectacular +77%.  :bowdown:

So Cynical and drillinto were the 2nd, 3rd best improvers for the month.

There was also a small increase in the number of contestants beating the benchmark (XAO). This is now 19, up from 15.


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## nulla nulla (3 March 2016)

Yeah I know I'm not out performing the list ATM however ....6th last, up three positions. heh heh.


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## Nortorious (5 March 2016)

explod going for gold!


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## systematic (21 March 2016)

Well, that's it for SDM - pity the 12.5c dividend doesn't count.
Didn't think about putting in a rule for takeovers.

Just for the record, I'm happy enough to rollover to CIM, but it would be a bit of a bummer if it wasn't a stock I would hold.  Will have to put a rule in for next year where the person gets to buy something else.  Do we have a rule for this year that everyone's happy with?  Like I said, in this instance I'm happy to hold CIM, but given the opportunity might pick something else.


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## Logique (22 March 2016)

Thanks peter2 for the summary update.

The timing flatters the gold stocks pickers, and they shouldn't put the cranberry juice on ice just yet.  

Financials have been catching up.


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## peter2 (31 March 2016)

EOM March update: The general market ends up at the end of March. 

_Leader_ : *Explod*,  (deserves his capital"E") although he's starting to lose his gleam (-10%).

_2nd:_ *So cynical*, with a solid gain for the month (+22%)
_3rd_: *Paavfc*, with a solid gain for the month (+11%).
_
Worth mentioning_: eragon (+18%), trillionaire (+17%), rcm617 (+14%), mushcu (+12%)

_Notes_:  
systematic - I've given you the termination div on SDM. 
shouldaindex - sorry DSH to zero, so any surprises will be good.


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## systematic (31 March 2016)

Thanks for the fantastic record keeping, peter2!

Will you roll my tip over to CIM (post-SDM trading, closing price on 21 March was $34.17 ) or would you like me to 'buy' (tip) something else (which I can do immediately, if you want to start it from April) - which I'd prefer to do.

I'll leave it as your choice...


...Very fun to see the year unfold month to month!


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## peter2 (1 April 2016)

Sorry, there's no re-investment facility available for companies that have been bought up (SDM, UXC and any others throughout the year) and no second chance to sell the dogs that a few of us are holding. Argh. Think of it as "all-in". You'll have to sit on your capital gains.


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## systematic (1 April 2016)

All good - cheers peter2


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## So_Cynical (1 April 2016)

systematic said:


> All good - cheers peter2




Thinking positively at least you have an 18% winner locked in.


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## peter2 (14 April 2016)

The ASF2016 yearly comp spreadsheet triggered a few alerts this week. 

_explod's_ portfolio hit +100% and _So Cynical's_ portfolio hit +60% this week. 

Thankfully there is plenty of time left for the rest of us.


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## peter2 (29 April 2016)

EOM  April update:   The general market ended up again this month.

_Leader_: *Explod*, added 30% to his awesome tally (now +112.7%) 

_2nd_: *Paavfc*, with an outstanding gain of 66% (now +91.9%) and is a serious contender thanks to SGQ. 

_3rd_: *So Cynical*, gaining 19% this month (now +67.6%) 

Honourable mention: *Mushcu* +21% this month.


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## systematic (29 April 2016)

Thanks again for another month's update.  Paavfc is also the only one in the green on all picks - way to go!


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## peter2 (11 May 2016)

Breaking news:  Explod still leads, but Paavfc is only 1% behind. Both fund managers are >+100%.


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## peter2 (31 May 2016)

EOM May update:    The XAO index rose 2.4% this month and we have a new leader! 

_Leader_: *Paavfc* now *+92.5%*

_2nd_: *Explod* now *+88.9%*

_3rd_: *So Cynical* *+67.6%*

_Biggest movers this month_:  mytrie100 +17%, systematic +16%, 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: Paavfc, drillinto


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## explod (31 May 2016)

for keeping the books on this comp peter2

Loath to say much when in the lead.   Lucky really as my pick CYP was a typo mistake,  should have been CYL another goldie.  Only reason doing OK is golds rise this year so no big deal.   Looking like the correction is in now though.


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## So_Cynical (31 May 2016)

explod said:


> for keeping the books on this comp peter2
> 
> Loath to say much when in the lead.   Lucky really as my pick CYP was a typo mistake,  should have been CYL another goldie.  Only reason doing OK is golds rise this year so no big deal.   Looking like the correction is in now though.




^ A typo (fat finger) and a Gold theme - thats the out perform, if i had included HZR in stead of MXI as was the toss up at the time i would be a country mile in front, but i decided to be a little conservative.


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## peter2 (30 June 2016)

EOM June update:   The XAO index fell 2.5 % this month. 

_Leader_:  *Explod* now *+110.1%*

_2nd_: *Paavfc* now *+80.6%*

_3rd_: *So Cynical* now *+54.4%*

_Biggest movers this month_: *Explod* +21%, *systematic* +6%, *leyy* +5.6%

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:  *Paavfc*

_Number of competitors above the XAO index throughout the year so far_:  16, 19, 16, 16, 15, 15    [31]


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## peter2 (29 July 2016)

EOW July update: The XAO gained 6.2% this month (+5.6% for 2016)

_Leader_: *Explod* now +189.7% 

_2nd_: *Paavfc* now 137.9%

_3rd_: *So Cynical* now 46.8%

_Biggest movers this month_: 
*Explod* +80%, *Paavfc* +58%, *Mushcu* +21%, *Klogg* +19%, *drillinto* +18.5%, *Vsntchr* +18%, *mytrie100* +16%

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: *Explod, Paavfc*

Number of competitors above the XAO index at the end of each month (Total 31).
16, 19, 16, 16, 15, 15, 14

That's disappointing. You would have thought more would beat the index as the year progresses.


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## Porper (29 July 2016)

peter2 said:


> EOW July update: The XAO gained 6.2% this month (+5.6% for 2016)
> 
> _Leader_: *Explod* now +189.7%
> 
> ...




You would think so, but maybe it just reiterates the fact that we are seeing a larger bear market bounce...not a new longer term bull market. In a raging bull market most would be making a profit, irrespective of stock picking skills.


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## skc (29 July 2016)

peter2 said:


> EOW July update: The XAO gained 6.2% this month (+5.6% for 2016)
> 
> _Leader_: *Explod* now +189.7%
> 
> ...




Jaw dropping performance by Explod.


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## explod (1 August 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> ^ A typo (fat finger) and a Gold theme - thats the out perform, if i had included HZR in stead of MXI as was the toss up at the time i would be a country mile in front, but i decided to be a little conservative.




Yeh,  sorry Champ,  I do try to keep my place at the bottom.  You should have been up there as my typo not included is only up 120% 

Embarrasing one for a learner is my pick MOY up 700%  Have to learn about derivatives and get a bit more leverage maybe, but happy with my silver coin collection for now.

Thanks for the tick SKI.   Would be great to work out a way to attract more entrants for next year.   No doubt an ability to trade in and out could be a good one.


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## systematic (1 August 2016)

explod said:


> No doubt an ability to trade in and out could be a good one.




...Just 'cos I'm always up for a bit of fun with this stuff...that'd be cool (as long as brokerage charged)...someone would have to be pretty dedicated to tracking it etc though


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## peter2 (31 August 2016)

EOM August 16 UPDATE:   The XAO lost 2.1% this month (remains +3.5% for 2016)

_Leader_: *Explod* gained even more this month to +194.3%

_2nd_: *Paavfc* also gained this month to +142.9%

_3rd_: *Systematic* takes third with +46.0%
There is a very close bunch going for third (four within 3%). 

_Biggest movers (>9%) this month_: 
*Vsntchr +11%, Mushcu +9%, jbocker +9%, odds-on +9%, skc +9%*

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: 
*explod, paavfc, systematic*

_Number of competitors >XAO index at end of each month (from 31)_:
*16,19,16,16,15,15,14,15*


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## skc (31 August 2016)

peter2 said:


> EOM August 16 UPDATE:   The XAO lost 2.1% this month (remains +3.5% for 2016)
> 
> _Leader_: *Explod* gained even more this month to +194.3%
> 
> ...




Thanks for the update. Great to know that my picks have returned positive 1%


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## Klogg (31 August 2016)

peter2 said:


> EOM August 16 UPDATE:   The XAO lost 2.1% this month (remains +3.5% for 2016)
> 
> _Leader_: *Explod* gained even more this month to +194.3%
> 
> ...




Wow... Lucky guess


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## peter2 (31 August 2016)

skc said:


> Thanks for the update. Great to know that my picks have returned positive 1%




Yep, with that record you could start your own hedge fund.


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## Muschu (31 August 2016)

Nice to see my honourable mentions ..... Pity I only bought 1 of the 5 I predicted.... HZR

Too cautious maybe....


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## peter2 (30 September 2016)

Just started to update our yearly comp, and OMG ,something startling has happened.


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## systematic (1 October 2016)

peter2 said:


> Just started to update our yearly comp, and OMG ,something startling has happened.




Love a bit of suspense!


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## peter2 (1 October 2016)

EOM September 16 update:  The XAO lost 0.1% this month (remains +3.4% for 2016)

_Leader_: *Paavfc* streaks past to take the lead with +243.7% (gaining 100% in a month!)

_2nd_: *Explod* also gained this month but is relegated to 2nd with +229.8%

_3rd_: *systematic* moves into 3rd with +53.5%

_Biggest movers this month_:
*Paavfc +100%, explod +36% *

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:
*Paavfc, explod, *

_# of competitors > XAO now (from 31)_:
*16, 19, 16, 16, 15, 15, 14, 15, 19  (significant improvement)*




ps: Sorry for the delay. I had trouble with excel, then I had to submit it to the auditors. Unbelievable.


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## So_Cynical (1 October 2016)

19 out of 32 beating the index as well, a third of us smashing it by more than 300%


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## systematic (1 October 2016)

Wow!  That is some result!  
I love how Paavfc and explod are soo close - you couldn't script it any better.  Wonder if one of them will hit a ten-bagger soon?

Thanks for the speedy updates peter2; nice work.

Good luck everyone in the last quarter!


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## peter2 (31 October 2016)

EOM October 16 update:  The XAO lost 2.3% this month (+1.1% YTD)

_Leader_: *Paavfc* holds the lead comfortably (+240%)

_2nd_: *Explod* suffers with falling gold price (+200%)

_3rd_: *Drillinto* charges into third place (+77%)

_Biggest movers this month_:
*drillinto +28%,  jbocker +23%, Klogg +16%*

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:
*paavfc, explod, drillinto, systematic* 

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 31)_: 
*16 19 16 16 15 15 14 15 19 now 16*




ps: Sorry for delay. Prices on asx.com were constantly even at 17:30hr. 
There may be some minor discrepancies with closing prices. No problem as there's two months left.


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## peter2 (30 November 2016)

EOM November 16 update: The XAO gain 1.9% this month (+3% YTD)
Although the index gained, most portfolio's lost value this month.  

_One month remaining!_

_Leader_: *Paavfc* 's lead slipped significantly (+183%)

_2nd_: *Explod* suffers with falling gold price (+165%)

_3rd_: *Drillinto* maintains third place (+73%)

_Biggest movers this month_:
*eragon* +15%, *trillionaire#1* +14%, *systematic* +8%, 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:
*paavfc, explod, drillinto, systematic 
*
_# of competitors > XAO (out of 31)_: 
16 19 16 16 15 15 14 15 19 16 still 16


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## peter2 (30 November 2016)

If we would like to discuss any changes for next years competition, this month would be a good time.

This is a yearly competition and rewards those that select the best buy and hold for a year portfolio. However a year is a long time in the market and I'd like to propose we allow ourselves some options for taking profits and/or reducing losses during the year. 

My suggestion for consideration is to allow a limited number of opportunities to replace a selection, any time throughout the year. This is a longer term competition and therefore we shouldn't allow too many replacements. I was thinking perhaps 4 or 5 only.  Four would mean that we'd all have to hold at least one selection for the whole year. 

2nd suggestion: No replacements during  Nov, Dec to allow for some luck to impact the results in the last two months. This would also prevent the leader from going very conservative to preserve lead. 

What do you think?


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## explod (30 November 2016)

Sounds a good plan to me.


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## So_Cynical (30 November 2016)

peter2 said:


> 1 : My suggestion for consideration is to allow a limited number of opportunities to replace a selection, any time throughout the year. This is a longer term competition and therefore we shouldn't allow too many replacements. I was thinking perhaps 4 or 5 only.  Four would mean that we'd all have to hold at least one selection for the whole year.
> 
> 2nd suggestion: No replacements during  Nov, Dec to allow for some luck to impact the results in the last two months. This would also prevent the leader from going very conservative to preserve lead.




1 : ok but perhaps a limit of 2 or 3, easier to keep track of and this is a 1 year picking comp and that should be given high consideration at the start.

2 : Yes.


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## skc (1 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> If we would like to discuss any changes for next years competition, this month would be a good time.
> 
> This is a yearly competition and rewards those that select the best buy and hold for a year portfolio. However a year is a long time in the market and I'd like to propose we allow ourselves some options for taking profits and/or reducing losses during the year.
> 
> ...




Thanks for keeping record and the regular updates on this competition. 

Re proposed changes... I think the current format is OK. But if everyone's keen to have replacements then perhaps 2 stocks per quarter, and at the end of quarter only, would be interesting? That makes 6 changes maximum, with no replacement in the last quarter.

Also, I think participants should also be allowed replacement if the company is taken over or bankrupt. With companies going belly up (I am looking at you DSH), A 100% loss will be recorded against the overall record, but a new stock can be selected to there's a chance of a comeback.


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## Knobby22 (1 December 2016)

Very impressive results for the top 4. Next year I am going to look closely at their tips.

You don't want to destroy the competition. I like skc's plan.


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## tech/a (1 December 2016)

Note most of the top guys have Start prices of under $ 3
with the far majority under $1

Valuesnatcher impresses with a massive 36% with Higher priced stock. (Particularly in this years volatility).
I see this as more skill than luck.

But then again you cant go past 4 and 5 selections in profit in the small end of town over 12 mths.

Might Have a look at this myself next year.


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## Klogg (1 December 2016)

Wow. This has doubled the performance of my actual portfolio...


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## skc (1 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> EOM November 16 update: The XAO gain 1.9% this month (+3% YTD)
> Although the index gained, most portfolio's lost value this month.
> 
> _One month remaining!_




Just noticed that jbocker ORG's pick price is incorrect.


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## peter2 (1 December 2016)

Thanks skc for the "heads up". 

Sorry jbocker, thanks for your PM and I hope you didn't get too much of a shock.


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## peter2 (1 December 2016)

Thanks for your comments so far. I'm pleased to see that we have similar views regarding this competition. 

1. Five selections to be posted in a new thread before Jan 1st, 2017

2. No alterations for the first three months. 
Up to two replacements may be made anytime during the month of March for the start of April.

3. No alterations for the next four months.
Up to two replacements may be made anytime during the month of July for the start of August.

No changes for the final five months of the year.

The limited number of replacements won't be onerous for the administrator and will only happen twice during the year. Most importantly these limitations for the replacements won't undermine the year long duration of the comp. 

At least one selection will have to last the year. If we pick a dud stock or a dud theme then we have to wear it for 3 or 4 months before being able to try something else.

Are we comfortable with these conditions?


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## explod (1 December 2016)

Sounds a good plan to me.

Be good to see increased participation also.


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## peter2 (1 December 2016)

I'm hoping that the limited ability to make a few replacements throughout the year will induce a few more participants. If we pick a dud stock, then we'll be behind but totally out of it and our new selection might put us back in the race.


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## tech/a (1 December 2016)

I'm in


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## tech/a (1 December 2016)

tech/a said:


> I'm in




On the other side of the coin you could also use 
The opportunity to close selections to lock in
Profit.


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## Nortorious (4 December 2016)

I've been missing in action on this forums thanks to a very full work diary and closing out things ahead of the end of year. 

I'll be in for this next year.


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## pixel (4 December 2016)

I'll rejoin too.
and I second Peter2's 3 amendments.


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## Joe Blow (4 December 2016)

Peter, thank you for taking the time to track the competition entries and provide monthly updates during 2016. I sincerely appreciate the effort you have put into maintaining and improving the full year tipping competition and I look forward to another exciting competition in 2017.

I am happy for competition participants (and the ASF community generally) to discuss and decide on any changes to the current competition rules. 

I will start the thread for the 2017 competition around the middle of this month to allow a reasonable amount of time for people to decide on and post their entries.


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## OmegaTrader (4 December 2016)

Hi


What is the format???

changes/ no changes??

capital gains only ??

prizes/ no prizes ???

I think dividend included is fair  because stock could fall due to payment and that pick could be disadvantaged by failing capital gain f the market discount the price after dividend payment. 

And also this is part of the buy and hold strategy is it not?

Wouldn't mind trying.


 Since I ended up second last in the monthly in Novemeber
and now last for December competition so far 

ahaha


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## Logique (5 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> If we would like to discuss any changes for next years competition, this month would be a good time.
> This is a yearly competition and rewards those that select the best buy and hold for a year portfolio. However a year is a long time in the market and I'd like to propose we allow ourselves some options for taking profits and/or reducing losses during the year.
> My suggestion for consideration is to allow a limited number of opportunities to replace a selection, any time throughout the year. This is a longer term competition and therefore we shouldn't allow too many replacements. I was thinking perhaps 4 or 5 only.  Four would mean that we'd all have to hold at least one selection for the whole year.
> 2nd suggestion: No replacements during  Nov, Dec to allow for some luck to impact the results in the last two months. This would also prevent the leader from going very conservative to preserve lead.
> What do you think?



Hi Peter, firstly thanks for running the comp. As regards the changes, aren't you making a lot of work for yourself by proposing to allow multiple changes during the year? Counting dividends is a bit the same.

In my case, I'd have dumped VOC back in Sept, since which it has almost halved again, so the proposal would have given me a better result. But I'm not sure that's in the spirit of the comp? I'd as soon see it remain as is - pure 12 months buy and hold.


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## peter2 (5 December 2016)

Thanks for that Logique. The extra work may take an extra hour (+2H all up). That's no problem. 
Divs are a valuable component of long term growth but including them would create too much extra work. 

Like you I selected a dud stock and in real life we would have sold them before they damaged our portfolio too much. It seems reasonable to allow for replacements when a company is taken over or delisted. If we allowed replacements for these extremes then we should allow others to replace their duds. The ability to minimise losses is an important part of an investors/traders management.

This is a friendly competition amongst the forum members and allowing a few replacements might keep more interested throughout the year. 

I'd be happy to keep the number of replacements low (maybe 2 - 4) to keep the emphasis on the long term nature of the comp. 

I'll PM Joe and ask him to start a new thread for the 2017 comp and let him make the final decision on any replacements. We had 31 participants last year. I'd like to see >50 this year. We may tempt a few more participants if we allow a few replacements throughout the year.  

(Whoops, just read Joe's post. He's a prophet.)


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## Logique (5 December 2016)

Ok understood, thanks again


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## nulla nulla (6 December 2016)

Logique said:


> Hi Peter, firstly thanks for running the comp. As regards the changes, aren't you making a lot of work for yourself by proposing to allow multiple changes during the year? Counting dividends is a bit the same.
> 
> In my case, I'd have dumped VOC back in Sept, since which it has almost halved again, so the proposal would have given me a better result. But I'm not sure that's in the spirit of the comp? I'd as soon see it remain as is - pure 12 months buy and hold.




For what it is worth I agree with Logique. The original purpose was to pick stocks for 12 months. If you allow changes during the year then the end result is skewed, unless the loss making stocks are included in the result. I agree with dividends being included but I see this as creating a lot of work for the competition manager.


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## mcgrath111 (6 December 2016)

I don't mind how the competition unfolds, however appreciate the hard work you've put in Peter.


This has been a great look back on the year that was.


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## pixel (6 December 2016)

mcgrath111 said:


> I don't mind how the competition unfolds, however appreciate the hard work you've put in Peter.
> 
> This has been a great look back on the year that was.




+1, 
Your work is definitely appreciated, Peter. And if you ditched the change option for reason of too much work, I wouldn't grizzle at all. However, if you're willing to allow two sets of reviews during the year, I'm all in favour because it would make the comp more life-like. Therefore, I vote especially for dividends being included.
Anybody and any share can be hit by something out of left field. I know very few investors - none, actually - that buy and hold no matter what. Allowing some interim review, even if restricted to two months and two stocks, would be a fair compromise, leveling the chances for participants with differing investing styles.


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## skc (6 December 2016)

nulla nulla said:


> For what it is worth I agree with Logique. The original purpose was to pick stocks for 12 months. If you allow changes during the year then the end result is skewed, unless the loss making stocks are included in the result. I agree with dividends being included but I see this as creating a lot of work for the competition manager.




I am pretty sure the intention is to include the losses made in the results... although the exact mechanics hasn't been discussed.

The simplest way would be to just include the % lost realised in the final tally. A more realistic approach is to re-weight the positions ... but that would leave a bit more work for the record tracker.


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## peter2 (6 December 2016)

Thanks for all the feedback, it helps Joe and myself to formulate a compromise. 

The number of allowed replacements should be low to maintain the integrity of the year long comp. It's reasonable to allow replacements for companies taken-over or delisted throughout the year.  If we allow those replacements then that function should be available for all of us to restrict losers or lock in winners. 

I've asked Joe to consider allowing only 2 or 3 replacements any time throughout the year up to midnight Sept 30th. We'll let the last three months play out without any replacements. 

I've been reporting our progress monthly and that will be the same next year. This means the replacements will have to comply with the monthly reporting schedule. Selections being replaced will be recorded with the closing price at the EOM that the request was made. Replacements will be started with the EOM closing price. 

Calculating the performance including the replacements did require some thought.  Re-weighting is too time consuming and an investor can't do this in real-time without paying extra brokerage. 

Performance will be calculated as an average across all selections including any replacements. 

Let's work through an example. "rambo" (not his real name) selects DSH at the start of the year. During Feb we learn that DSH is being delisted and rambo decides to replace DSH with EEE. During the next month EEE gains 100% and this gain offsets the 100% loss sustained by DSH.  Another of rambo's selections has also gained 50% (AAA). The EOM performance of rambo is now spread across six selections not the original five. 




_Dividends and capital returns_: If at the EOY there are two or more competitors within 5% of each other, they may call for dividends and capital returns to be included in the final result. This only applies to the first three places. OK? 

Dividends are unlikely to change this years results.


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## explod (6 December 2016)

For what it's worth I do feel that only allowing the three picked for the year puts the focus on company health and fundamentals together with local and world economic conditions.

Most investing is in shorter term trading and the elements I put forward are so important but in the main passed over.

 In my own case I did not think a lot on it either, just put up a bunch of gold stocks.


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## systematic (6 December 2016)

I started a reply as soon as the last monthly update was posted, but couldn't finish it at the time.

Has this been decided or are you still looking for feedback?

Very cruisey by nature, I'd normally go along; but as originator of the comp idea in 2015, I don't love where this is going at all.

Which is fine - I'm no sook so if this is the way people want to go; no prob with me.  Like anyone else, I'd decide at the time whether to join in the fun or (more likely with the way it's going) dip out this time.

All good - just wanted to ask if we're still consulting for ideas or whether you (peter2/Joe) feel like you've got a fairly solid idea of where it's going?


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## peter2 (7 December 2016)

Still looking for feedback. 
Systematic you're one of the very few who have all five selections in profit. You've had a great year and are still in with a chance for third. I notice that one of your selections was taken over. Would you have liked to replace it with another selection for the remaining part of the year? Can you pick five winning companies again next year?


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## Logique (8 December 2016)

For 2017, thanks:

APX - Appen
CGF - Challenger
ILU - Iluka
WHC - Whitehaven
VOC - Vocus


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## tech/a (8 December 2016)

For 2017

Can you pick stock others have already nominated?
Or do they have to be stand alone original?


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## Joe Blow (10 December 2016)

systematic said:


> All good - just wanted to ask if we're still consulting for ideas or whether you (peter2/Joe) feel like you've got a fairly solid idea of where it's going?




Sorry, missed this post somehow. 

I'm going to be starting the thread for the 2017 competition tomorrow so I guess it's a good idea to iron everything out ASAP. The idea, as it has evolved, is that everyone chooses five stocks for 2017 and each entrant will have two or three opportunities to change a stock before the end of September 2017. In order to change a stock, the entrant would have to post the change in the thread and the change would happen on the last day of that month. (i.e. both the exit price of the removed stock and the entry price of the added stock would be the relevant closing price on the last trading day of that month)

I'd be interested in whether people think two or three changes should be allowed. Also, please feel free to make any last minute suggestions. I'm always listening.


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## Joe Blow (10 December 2016)

tech/a said:


> For 2017
> 
> Can you pick stock others have already nominated?
> Or do they have to be stand alone original?




As each entrant will have a five stock portfolio, I imagine it will be a hard task to have all original stocks. So I'm happy to allow the odd double-up, as long as they are few and far between.


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## systematic (10 December 2016)

Hey guys,

Firstly, thank you to peter2 for the amazing job you have done with this comp, and of course, Joe for the place to hang out!  Hopefully I've said that enough in the past for you to know I really am appreciative, peter 2.  I couldn't have done it - without you the comp never would have happened!

Secondly, I'm going to try and be dot point and real brief in this...please don't take it as a curt response, it's just being pressed for time and trying to put something down so that Joe can move on to finalising.  Okay? 


*THE IDEA BEHIND IT ALL*
My whole idea is based around being real world.  Stuff like the monthly comp can be FUN, totally nothing wrong with that.  But this was a "stock picking" comp for people who love stock picking.  5 stocks, 1 year - who gets the trophy?  Of course it could be 5 years (but that might get a little boring) or it could be a weekly or daily trading comp.  But as anyone who'se been around knows, there's a lot of difference between picking an illiquid stock for a monthly comp (that could never have been bought in real life) and real trading / investing...call it what you want.  

To be real world...liquidity should be taken into account (which is why I suggested at the very least a floor of liquidity).  In 2016 we had a simple $10k daily trading rule.  Any simple scan could provide a list of appropriately liquid stocks - or just use an index (which is why I even suggested the ASX300 - the widest index that still takes float into consideration).

Ideally divs would be included.  Often they don't make much difference, but sometimes they do.  From memory, last year (or mid-year) magic formula thread...without looking it up I think the divs took the return from something like 12 to 19 per cent!

The 5 stocks / 1 year thing is just a matter of practicality.
1 year:  not just in Australia, several countries give tax advantages to holding for one year.  That, and the effects of things like brokerage start to get insignificant (whereas we all know people come up with daily trading systems that are profitable on paper only to be destroyed by real world slippage and brokerage).

5 stocks: the more concentrated, the more it comes down to "stock picking".  To use a silly example: if we all had to pick 200 stocks...our results would be a lot closer to each other!  Again, as a matter of practicality, if some value investors with 9 or even 10 figure funds can have something like half (or more!) of the fund in their top 5 to 10 picks...then somewhere around 5-10 seems about right for the average, small (say, <$10M) individual investor.

So - to some that up...for me it's all about having and holding a portfolio that would have been real-work implementable.

With that, comes a desire for real-world rules.  The re-balancing suggested does not make sense to me.  Someone losing 100% on DSH doesn't HAVE the funds to re-invest in another stock!  (By the way, peter2, yes I had *2* stocks taken over, and I asked to be able to replace them.  But in this case there would have been money to invest!)

I just don't see the suggested rules (replacing stocks a couple of times at previously designated points, being able to replace losers with fresh funds that didn't exist etc) as matching the idea of being real-world.

The div idea seems fair enough.  As in, on a matter of practicality, using divs only to separate close winners.



*MY SUGGESTIONS...*

So my suggestions are:

Initial set up
5 stocks with a minimum liquidity filter.  I'd make this higher than before.  Either use an index, or run a filter for stocks that sufficient weekly volume for a $100k account to easily invest.  e.g. $100k portfolio / 5 stocks = $20k per trade.  Using something like a rule of no more than a quarter of the daily volume...you'd want stocks that have had an average daily volume of at least $80k

Rebalancing options
- Hold for one year, allowing take over funds to be re-invested (otherwise they'd be sitting in a bank account)..._only a slight change to 2015/2016_

- Or, if there must be more action, change the comp to something like a rebalance once per quarter.  Complete sale and purchase of all stocks (of course, someone can select the exact same again).  Everyone resets, once per quarter - but with the funds the've got!  i.e. Based on a 100k portfolio, someone who lost 50% now only has $50k to invest.  Otherwise you might as well rename it to a 3 month comp rather than a Full Year comp.

- Allow people to buy / sell every month.  This is a more ideal situation that is real-world, but from comments made I would imagine this is way beyond too much work.  The option here means, allow people to sell out of losers or winners, re-investing as they go (into stocks they currently hold or new stocks)...just as you would in real life.  Again, I know this option is too much work...I mention it to emphasise again my belief that this comp should be made to be real-world like.

The best of both worlds?

The final, more unique solution I have that:
- keeps to the spirit of a one year comp (where brokerage becomes negligible and tax is maximised etc) 
- whilst at the same time allows for more members to join in and have a go
- and at the same time gives you a chance to lose some and win some(!)
- is kinda more work but not actually more COMPLICATED than the current comp
...is the following idea:

Final Idea

Pick 5 stocks to hold for 12 months.
Only sub-rules are: minimum liquidity filter, takeover funds can be reinvested into a new stock rather than go into 'the bank', divs either ignored, included or simply used to separate close winners.
_The twist is..._set this comp up at the start of every month (12 comps running)...or if that's too much - at least to start with - how about once every quarter?
Using the idea of quarters...
We have a comp that runs from 1 Jan 2017 to Dec 31 2017, another one with the above simple rules commences 1 April 2017 and runs to 31 March 2018, another one commences 1 July 2017 running to 31 June 2018 and finally another one starts 1 October 2017 running  to 31 September 2018.

Eventually we'll have 4 comps running at any given time with a new one starting and ending every three months.

Of course, if quarterly was still too much, it could be done 6 monthly.  
Or if it was easy to run and more action was wanted it could be run from the start of every month.


Thanks for listening.  At least I've put my idea out for consideration.  I'm not the one offering to run it, so as before, I'm happy with whatever Joe and whoever is going to help (e.g. peter2) to make the final call - along with the majority opinion etc...and go with that.

Let me know your thoughts


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## systematic (10 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> As each entrant will have a five stock portfolio, I imagine it will be a hard task to have all original stocks. So I'm happy to allow the odd double-up, as long as they are few and far between.




I agree.  Double ups shouldn't even come into it.  It's a one year comp, so anything can happen.  We want more players, and the more you have - the more likely people will have the same stocks.
They can always be sent privately if it were deemed necessary (or simply wait until the last day to post!)

Perhaps the only rule should be that 2 players can't have all 5 stocks the same.  Any rule more than that is, in my opinion, overkill (due to the 12 month nature of the comp)


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## Joe Blow (10 December 2016)

systematic said:


> Very cruisey by nature, I'd normally go along; but as originator of the comp idea in 2015, I don't love where this is going at all.
> 
> Which is fine - I'm no sook so if this is the way people want to go; no prob with me.  Like anyone else, I'd decide at the time whether to join in the fun or (more likely with the way it's going) dip out this time.




Sorry, I didn't really address this part of your post. My apologies. I think the main reason (in my mind at least) why having a couple of opportunities to change stocks is a good idea is because sometimes unforeseen events can make continuing to hold a stock untenable. For example, a mining stock whose main project has an expected mine collapse. A food manufacturer could have a salmonella scare. A political coup could occur in a country where a company operates. The list goes on and on.

While I realise that the original idea of the competition was to test the ability of entrants to see twelve months into the future and choose stocks that will experience good share price growth during that time, I think adding a little flexibility to the competition won't diminish the amount of skill involved and will only serve to enhance the competition by allowing people to get rid of a couple of duds and hopefully achieve better returns.


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## Joe Blow (10 December 2016)

Just a couple of quick thoughts:



systematic said:


> To be real world...liquidity should be taken into account (which is why I suggested at the very least a floor of liquidity).  In 2016 we had a simple $10k daily trading rule.  Any simple scan could provide a list of appropriately liquid stocks - or just use an index (which is why I even suggested the ASX300 - the widest index that still takes float into consideration).




I'm happy with the ASX300, but I'm guessing some people might want a wider selection to choose from?



systematic said:


> With that, comes a desire for real-world rules.  The re-balancing suggested does not make sense to me.  Someone losing 100% on DSH doesn't HAVE the funds to re-invest in another stock!  (By the way, peter2, yes I had *2* stocks taken over, and I asked to be able to replace them.  But in this case there would have been money to invest!)
> 
> I just don't see the suggested rules (replacing stocks a couple of times at previously designated points, being able to replace losers with fresh funds that didn't exist etc) as matching the idea of being real-world.




I guess the big question is: Is this a competition about percentage returns or an actual amount of money invested and the dollar return on that investment? The second is more definitely more real world but far more complex to manage.


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## So_Cynical (10 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> As each entrant will have a five stock portfolio, I imagine it will be a hard task to have all original stocks. So I'm happy to allow the odd double-up, as long as they are few and far between.




I think 5 or 6 people had Santos last year, it wasn't considered to be an issue at the time and dont think it would be going forward.

-------------

Lets keep the $10k daily trading rule and limit replacements to 3, the easy way to do this is with an imaginary 15 or 20K spread across the 5 stocks, get taken over or wiped out then thats the money you have left to go back in with.


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## systematic (10 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> I'm happy with the ASX300, but I'm guessing some people might want a wider selection to choose from?




...Definitely.  It happened last year, so same sentiment will occur again.





Joe Blow said:


> I guess the big question is: Is this a competition about percentage returns or an actual amount of money invested and the dollar return on that investment? The second is more definitely more real world but far more complex to manage.




I get what you're thinking, but I'm not talking about taking brokerage (or even dividends, if that's too difficult) into account.  All the more reason for a longer holding period - makes the brokerage less relevant.

I'm talking percentage returns...with the same idea of a liquidity filter as last year (although I'd argue for a much larger min. liquidity).

It comes down to - tournament play (in any game) is usually optimally played differently to 'real life' play.
This is simply trying to emulate real life reasonably closely whilst still being practical and easy (enough) to run.

BTW, hopefully my previous lengthy post that explains where I'm coming from, hasn't 'disappeared' too much from being on the previous page now.  Apologies for length - was meant to be brief!


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## OmegaTrader (10 December 2016)

systematic said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> Firstly, thank you to peter2 for the amazing job you have done with this comp, and of course, Joe for the place to hang out!  Hopefully I've said that enough in the past for you to know I really am appreciative, peter 2.  I couldn't have done it - without you the comp never would have happened!
> 
> ...




Wow big post and a lot of thought !

Where is the line drawn??  That is the question

Do you include capital gains, imputation credits, commissions, volume spreads. What happens if the stock has a massive bid-ask spread of 20-30%.

It's too much.  KISS keep it simple  MY .



1)  *Initial:* 

5 stock picks

2)  *Changes:* 

Maximum 3  in the year

3)  *Reasonable test:* 

Minimum liquidity or other measure, maybe spread could be included

4)  *Events: * 

 Options to the participant to be decided on a case by case basis by the Administrator                    
                            Depends on what the event is....
                            Participant can choose to sell or  hold new stock from a takeover etc etc
                            Bankruptcy or suspension, well you are finished


5)  *Challenge rule:* 

A participant can ask for dividends or recalculation based on reasonable test 
*ONLY if they are close enough to making a place * (1st,2nd or 3rd)


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## peter2 (10 December 2016)

systematic: Thanks for your thoughts. 

I'd like it to reflect real-life as well, but without real money on the line we can't replicate that. 

My thoughts on the competition stock universe:  
Most of next years huge growth opportunities are probably not in the current ASX300.


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## So_Cynical (10 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> Most of next years huge growth opportunities are probably *not* in the current ASX300.




Absolute certainty.


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## systematic (10 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> systematic:
> I'd like it to reflect real-life as well, but without real money on the line we can't replicate that.




...With what I'm advocating we can come a lot closer than other suggestions put forth.


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## systematic (10 December 2016)

peter2 said:


> systematic
> My thoughts on the competition stock universe:
> Most of next years huge growth opportunities are probably not in the current ASX300.






So_Cynical said:


> Absolute certainty.




Wouldn't that be the case in most years?

I'm just saying, *if* we want to make it just a little more real life than the monthly comp, then wouldn't we want a small liquidity filter?

Take a small account of 100k.  You're only buying 5 stocks, so you're putting in 20k per stock, even with a small portfolio.  Requiring 400k average weekly volume seems quite reasonable.  Most investors prefer to be able to trade in and out with relative ease.

If someone picks a 10 bagger but you could have (in the real world) only invested 2k in the stock...how is that a show of prowess?


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## Logique (11 December 2016)

I still think it should be a minimalist stock-picking, buy and hold kind of comp. 

- I think 2 changes annually in a portfolio of 5 stocks is plenty.
- the liquidity thing is valid, it's mathematically easier to get a % gain on penny stocks - but would you invest in them in real life?
- no issue at all with double ups, such as So Cynical's STO example above


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## So_Cynical (11 December 2016)

systematic said:


> Wouldn't that be the case in most years?
> 
> I'm just saying, *if* we want to make it just a little more real life than the monthly comp, then wouldn't we want a small liquidity filter?
> 
> ...




Ok i get you, i play with small figures and have a couple of 5 bag 2K investments and im pretty happy about that, understand that its not a life changer ~ 10K daily average liquidity, over the last 5 days is fine i think, but im talking about a small account of maybe 15 or 20K.

A larger account of 100K is a different story for me, thinking about i mite still go for a few of the smaller stocks but just expect a staged entry over a week or 3, its not that unusual for me to have a buy order filled over a 2 or 3 week period.

Keeping it real world, many of us im sure only feel comfortable throwing 2 or 3K at a very speculative stock, if it goes to zero so be it, not a life changer.

---------------

Looking at the comp results over the last 2 years, the contestants that do well have 5/5 or at least 4/5 stocks in profit, thats near impossible to do with 4 or 5 highly speculative stocks, when i make my selections it will be 2 high risk, 2 low risk, and 1 medium, most if not all will be non ASX300 stocks.


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## Joe Blow (11 December 2016)

OK, I've given this some thought and I think it's important to keep the competition relatively simple so it is easy to manage. Here are the draft rules for comment:

Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
No stocks that are trading at less than $0.01 on the day of entry may be entered.
A stock must have traded at least $50,000 in value per day in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
The competition will run from Monday, 2 January 2017 to Friday, 29 December 2017.
Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Friday, 30 December 2016.
Entries close at midnight on Saturday, 31 December 2016.
Each entrant is allowed to change two stocks between 1 April 2017 and 30 September 2017. To effect a change, the entrant must post the details of the change in the competition thread. The exit price of the exited stock and the entry price of the new stock will be calculated at the close of the final trading day of the month the change takes place. 
If a stock is taken over it can be replaced. The exit price shall be taken to be the takeover price. The new stock must be nominated before the date the taken over stock ceases trading and the entry price of the new stock shall be taken to be the closing price on the day the taken over stock ceases trading.

Please make any comments or suggested changes as soon as possible. I will finalise the rules tomorrow evening when the 2017 competition thread is started.


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## nulla nulla (11 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> OK, I've given this some thought and I think it's important to keep the competition relatively simple so it is easy to manage. Here are the draft rules for comment:
> 
> Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
> No stocks that are trading at less than $0.01 on the day of entry may be entered.
> ...




Hi Joe, I am happy with all of the above except guideline number 2, Shares greater than the minimum of $0.01. That's fine for the monthly comp but I cant see anyone investing $10,000 for a *twelve month *sit and hold on a share that trades in the $0.01 - $0.10 range. I prefer that shares be at least $0.10 minimum.


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## systematic (11 December 2016)

nulla nulla said:


> I prefer that shares be at least $0.10 minimum.




Remember there's a minimum volume now of $50k traded per day, so that will cut back on some of the options anyway.


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## systematic (11 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> Please make any comments or suggested changes as soon as possible. I will finalise the rules tomorrow evening when the 2017 competition thread is started.




...Sounds good, Joe.


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## So_Cynical (11 December 2016)

$50,000 in value per day eliminates 2 of the stocks i was going to pick, interestingly it would also eliminate 2 of my picks (MXI & APY) for the current comp.


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## Logique (12 December 2016)

I'd like to point out that I'm currently in the lead for the 2017 competition  

Some of my stocks are doing ok too....ssshh not yet!


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## pixel (12 December 2016)

Joe Blow said:


> OK, I've given this some thought and I think it's important to keep the competition relatively simple so it is easy to manage. Here are the draft rules for comment:
> 
> Each entrant must select five ASX listed stocks.
> No stocks that are trading at less than $0.01 on the day of entry may be entered.
> ...




Thanks Joe,
Liquidity is a useful filter, but ... can we make that $250k weekly rather than $50k daily?
Daily could disqualify stocks coming out of a trading halt or suspension, or have the odd low-volume day because they're "tightly held".
As price threshold, I'd rather see the 1c retained as per your suggestion. 10c would eliminate far too many stocks with potential. GXY would have failed in 2015 and barely scraped in for 2016, but look at them now! Or take TON or SOR as candidates for 2017. 

As to the rest of the rules - fine with me.


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## tech/a (12 December 2016)

Just one other thing I think worth adding.

If you wish to close out a holding at a price to lock profit
I think you should be able to.
2 Options (1) Replacing 2 only if you do this at the times allocated --otherwise not replaced

OR

Option (2) not replaced.

So if you get a 200% spike you would in a real world take it!
You wouldn't risk it dropping back!


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## Joe Blow (12 December 2016)

Thanks for all the feedback everyone. Any last minute comments or suggestions about the draft rules?


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## OmegaTrader (13 December 2016)

A challenge rule to include dividends if the top places are  close.


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## Logique (26 December 2016)

Logique said:


> For 2017, thanks:
> 
> APX - Appen
> CGF - Challenger
> ...



To prevent any confusion, I now cancel these 2017 picks, and will re-submit new picks on the 2017 thread - posted today 26 Dec 2016


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## peter2 (28 December 2016)

Gold is experiencing an EOY rally. Will it be enough to put the gold portfolio back on top?


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## peter2 (30 December 2016)

EOY 2016 RESULTS:    The XAO gain 4% this month  -   (+7% full year 2016)


*WINNER FOR 2016*: *Paavfc*  with a brilliant  (*+215%*)

*2nd*: *Explod* selected a very profitable theme for 2016 (Gold!)   (*+162%*)

*3rd*: *Drillinto* earns a very creditable third place   (*+72%*)

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE WINNERS!

_Biggest movers this month_:
Paavfc +31%, eragon +12%, jbocker +11%, trillionaire#1 +10%, GEAR ETF +10%

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_:
paavfc, explod, drillinto, systematic 

_# of competitors > XAO (out of 31)_: 
16 19 16 16 15 15 14 15 19 16 16  at the EOY only 12.




[Please let me know if their are any significant mistakes in the table that need amending.]


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## Logique (31 December 2016)

Thanks Peter, and well done to the the podium finishers.

Meanwhile I got caught with Vocus -49%, what was I thinking. Oh well, with the new comp rules I can dump any dogs from April 2017.


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## PZ99 (1 January 2017)

Scored a red for the year. didn't even get a wooden spoon. LOL

P.S. Thanks peter2 for running the comp for the year


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## skc (3 January 2017)

peter2 said:


> EOY 2016 RESULTS:    The XAO gain 4% this month  -   (+7% full year 2016)
> 
> 
> *WINNER FOR 2016*: *Paavfc*  with a brilliant  (*+215%*)
> ...




Congrats to the winners... awesome picks.


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## Joe Blow (3 January 2017)

Joe Blow said:


> Like the monthly stock tipping competition, I have decided to award cash prizes to the top three placegetters:
> 
> 1st Place: $200
> 2nd Place: $100
> 3rd Place: $50




Congratulations to all the winners! There were some outstanding 12 month returns for 2016.

Can Paavfc, explod and drillinto please contact me via PM regarding their prizes.

Good luck to all the entrants in the 2017 full year competition!


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