# Elliott Wave Counts



## goldpattern (8 October 2021)

The ZigZag feature can be used to filter out small moves and make Elliott Wave counts more straightforward. The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF with a 6% ZigZag to filter moves less than 6%. After a little trial and error, 6% was deemed the threshold of importance. An advance or decline greater than 6% was deemed significant enough to warrant a wave for an Elliott count. Keep in mind that this is just an example. The threshold and the wave count are subjective and dependent on individual preferences. Based on the 6% ZigZag, a complete cycle was identified from March 2009 until July 2010. A complete cycle consists of 8 waves, 5 up and 3 down.


Retracements and Projections

SharpCharts users can choose between the normal “ZigZag” and “ZigZag (Retrace.).” As shown in the examples above, the normal ZigZag shows lines that move at least a specific percentage. The ZigZag (Retrace.) connects the reaction highs and lows with labels that measure the prior move. The numbers on the dotted lines reflect the difference between the current ZigZag line and the ZigZag line immediately before it. For example, the chart below shows Altera (ALTR) with the 15% ZigZag (Retrace.) feature. Three ZigZag lines have been labeled (1, 2 and 3). The dotted line connecting the low of Line 1 with the low of Line 2 shows a box with 0.638. This means Line 2 is .638 (63.8%) of Line 1. A number below 1 means the line is shorter than the prior line. The dotted line connecting the high of Line 2 with the high of Line 3 shows a box with 1.646. This means Line 3 is 1.646 (164.6%) of Line 2. A number above 1 means the line is longer than the prior line.

As you may have guessed, seeing these lines as a percentage of the prior lines makes it possible to assess Fibonacci projections. The August decline (Line 2) retraced around 61.8% of the June-July advance (Line 1). This is a classic Fibonacci retracement. The advance from early September to early November was 1.646 times the August decline. In this sense, the ZigZag (Retrace.) can be used to project the length of an advance. Again, 1.646 is close to the Fibonacci 1.618, which is the Golden Ratio used in many projection estimates. See our ChartSchool article for more on Fibonacci retracements.

The ZigZag and ZigZag (Retrace.) filter price action and do not have any predictive power. The ZigZag lines simply react when prices move a certain percentage. Chartists can apply an array of technical analysis tools to the ZigZag. Chartists can perform basic trend analysis by comparing reaction highs and lows. Chartists can also overlay the ZigZag feature to look for price patterns that might not be as visible on a normal bar or line chart. The ZigZag has a way of highlighting the important movements and ignoring the noise. When using the ZigZag feature, don't forget to measure the last line to determine if it is temporary or permanent. This line is temporary if the current price change is less than the ZigZag parameter, but becomes permanent if the price change is greater than or equal to the ZigZag parameter.


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## tech/a (8 October 2021)

Another useless technical trading tool 
Just another line on a chart.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

Hmm - a post here seems to suggest Elliot Wave isn't predictive. I'll disagree and say it is probably the most predictive theory I'm aware of and use on a daily basis. Sure, it is very subjective, takes years to learn properly, and while very easy to read with hindsight, trying to understande where you are currently on the price cycle can be challenging. I was taught that 80% of stocks follow the 5 wave up and 3 down structure. Take the chart below, which was the first one I found in a quick look at the ASX300 that showed an obvious EW pattern.


If you were looking to trade this stock close to the top of the rising waves near points 1, 3 & 5 wouldn't you like to know that just ahead there was a hungry bear in the woods? When prices started to rise out of point 2 wouldn't it be nice to know that EW says the rise to 3 is going to be the longest and strongest risce of the price cycle? When price started to rise from A knowing that the next rise into B will probably be a short-lived 'sucker' rally can save you entering a failing trade. 
EW is not simple and while I studied it in depth as part of a share trading course years ago and have spent countless hours since considering wave counts, it still often challenges me. Simple at its basic structure but devilishly complex once you dig down. 
It is amazing how many times and extension of 261.8% of the distance from C to 1 extended from 2 gives you the point Wave 3 will run out of puff. As I wrote this I thought I'd better check if it worked on the chart above. It does - exactly.


There are similar calculations that allow prediction of where the ABC fall will end. In this example price did fall in the predicted range.

As I started out saying - EW is one of the most reliable predictive theories chartists have.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

A postscript to my earlier post. The example I used does have one anomoly. EW predicts that usually the ABC fall will be about 75% of the rise from C (the first C that is) to 5 - ie each full price cycle takes prices a bit higher which is why markets grow over time. The example I used shows a fall over the cycle and that is unusual.


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## tech/a (8 October 2021)

Your not practicing E/W
To suggest you can pick a random zig zag % and call that an E/W count shows a severe lack of E/W understanding.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

tech/a said:


> Your not practicing E/W
> To suggest you can pick a random zig zag % and call that an E/W count shows a severe lack of E/W understanding.



I'm not sure whose EW understanding is lacking - mine or yours?


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## tech/a (8 October 2021)

Used Advanced get for years and studied E/W along with Market Profile for many years.
As for a “Practical “ trading tool I found it a great deal more subjective than analysis like M/P and VSA.
All analysis even fundamental is subjective. The ability to apply analysis quickly and accurately while being able to verify any subjectivity quick enough to take advantage of OR take mitigating action is
to me the key in any sort of analysis you apply.

If you need weeks and at times months to verify a wave count for instance (or a company valuation to play out) which can change particularly in a corrective move your left with an abundance of hindsite analysis which you can only fit to a chart well after it’s happened.

You just can’t trade that.


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## Porper (8 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> Hmm - a post here seems to suggest Elliot Wave isn't predictive. I'll disagree and say it is probably the most predictive theory I'm aware of and use on a daily basis. Sure, it is very subjective, takes years to learn properly, and while very easy to read with hindsight, trying to understande where you are currently on the price cycle can be challenging. I was taught that 80% of stocks follow the 5 wave up and 3 down structure. Take the chart below, which was the first one I found in a quick look at the ASX300 that showed an obvious EW pattern.
> View attachment 131238
> 
> If you were looking to trade this stock close to the top of the rising waves near points 1, 3 & 5 wouldn't you like to know that just ahead there was a hungry bear in the woods? When prices started to rise out of point 2 wouldn't it be nice to know that EW says the rise to 3 is going to be the longest and strongest risce of the price cycle? When price started to rise from A knowing that the next rise into B will probably be a short-lived 'sucker' rally can save you entering a failing trade.
> ...



People have different perceptions on wave counts. There are rules/guidelines to adhere to though.

Most importantly, a retracement cannot head beneath the low of wave-1...which it does on the top chart. It strongly suggests the trend is down, and not a retracement at all. I know some people that use  a zigzag setting to label the chart but that isn't using the Wave Theory in its true form. For one, it can't decipher the subdivisions within the trends. This is very important when projecting a potential turning point.

Out of interest how do you project a low within an A-B-C correction? What "other" forms of analysis do you use?

I use Elliott Wave a lot but it has its limitations like any form of T.A. We can all put up great charts with perfect patterns and Fib retracements. I could also put up charts that seemingly disprove the theory. 

It's like any method...sometimes it works great and other times it's useless.


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## Joules MM1 (8 October 2021)

I suggest you practise the simple form of speaking in the first person

that is, when speaking end your sentences with the words "for me"
- and - when using the word "you" ensure that the use is of the person youre speaking to
rather than in the 3rd person, this way we know when you (the reader) are being spoken to directly and not
as some circumspect "other person" especially when referring to oneself - "you" needs to be what it is, which is - "me"

i suggest rather than posting something as certainty (even tho it maybe so for yourself) consider posting it as a question

 for example
here i have begun a basic nonmenclature, the context is that this stock has made a significant enough pullback that  the old
structure is ended, empirically, based on the EWP, tihs is in a new trend (up)
(the instrument itself is irrelevant to this conversation as EWP is about application of risk based on structure, at least for me it is.....)

i suggest what is propositioned be inspected on the basis of interpretation, that is, you interpret based on the extent of your knowledge
because when you speak we see the extent of your knowledge within the post not within what exists in your head

to begin
please note this idea is to allow us to focus on risk not on prediction - it is vitally important to be clear that your post reveals your
approach to the utility of the EWP, that means, your employ of the principal reveals who you are and what drives you

poster beware, the EWP subsumes all opinions (including this one!)

there is one basic thing missing from this chart (there maybe others, if you say), see if you can point out what is missing
how would you enumerate this chart?









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

Porper said:


> People have different perceptions on wave counts. There are rules/guidelines to adhere to though.
> 
> Most importantly, a retracement cannot head beneath the low of wave-1...which it does on the top chart. It strongly suggests the trend is down, and not a retracement at all. I know some people that use  a zigzag setting to label the chart but that isn't using the Wave Theory in its true form. For one, it can't decipher the subdivisions within the trends. This is very important when projecting a potential turning point.
> 
> ...



Hi - The problem was I didn't show the entire price cycle in my chart so in fact W4 doesn't fall into the range of W1. I guess that was what you meant by the retracement beneath the low of W1.



The low of the cycle (C) usually falls between a 61.8% extension of the length of WA measured down from the top of WB and 161.8% of the height of WB measured down from the top of WB. Sometimes the waves are exagerated and other variations of Fibonachi numbers might work better. Usually, you are doing this exercise when you think you are at point C and the percentages to use become more obvious. The chart becomes a bit messy with lines from the extensions but with NUF below you can see (maybe) that the low pretty much exactly coincided with the 161.8% extension of the length of B measured down from the top of B.
*

*
As for what other techniques I use, a lot revolve around support and resistance lines and price channels but too much detail to go into here.


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## Sean K (8 October 2021)

The problem with EW, that I have seen, is that it can only be traded retrospectively.

The challenge for EW practitioners is to post up trades in the moment, along the cycle, to show execution and profitability. No one has ever been able to do it.


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## Porper (8 October 2021)

No, what I meant was that your A-B-C corrections at both degrees of trend are far to deep. They nearly retrace the whole prior leg higher. Plus, each 5-wave move makes up a pattern at 1 larger degree...or it should.. Sorry, I just can't see how the analysis you have put forward helps making trading decisions. The labelling can only be made with hindsight. 

Maybe put a live chart up and project where you think the A-B-C will terminate.


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## tech/a (8 October 2021)

kennas said:


> The problem with EW, that I have seen, is that it can only be traded retrospectively.
> 
> The challenge for EW practitioners is to post up trades in the moment, along the cycle, to show execution and profitability. No one has ever been able to do it.



 When you have to decipher what it is your deciphering I’m with you Kenna’s
And of course if it fails then the count alters to suit.

Dont know if you remember The McLAREN report.
followed it for year every week.
never on the money always a change of count and never a hint of practical application.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

Porper said:


> No, what I meant was that your A-B-C corrections at both degrees of trend are far to deep. They nearly retrace the whole prior leg higher. Plus, each 5-wave move makes up a pattern at 1 larger degree...or it should.. Sorry, I just can't see how the analysis you have put forward helps making trading decisions. The labelling can only be made with hindsight.
> 
> Maybe put a live chart up and project where you think the A-B-C will terminate.



Hi again,
Do you mean the second Wave C shouldn't be lower than the first Wave C - ie the closing price of the price cycle is lower than the starting price of the price cycle. Normally, a price cycle will retrace 75% of its rise through W1 to W5 in the ABC decline. However, by chance the stock I used closed lower than it opened. From what I've read this is allowed by EW theory - but it is unusual.

I don't use EW for trading decisions other than to tell me where price is on the price cycle. If I think it is telling me we are on the start of W3 or W5 then I look for other entry signals. If it tells me price might be on WB (or ABC anywhere) then I look elsewhere as a trade there is probably a losing bet. EW can't tell you where to trade only provide indications that you need to be wary of where a rising wave might be ending (such as the top of  W3 is often near 161.8% of the height of W1 measured up from the bottom of W2. 

Forewarned is forearmed they say. EW is just part of the arsenal.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> I suggest you practise the simple form of speaking in the first person
> 
> that is, when speaking end your sentences with the words "for me"
> - and - when using the word "you" ensure that the use is of the person youre speaking to
> ...



Re yout chart query you have a peak  in W2 that is higher than the point marked '1' - that is invalid in EW. The higher point is 1.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

kennas said:


> The problem with EW, that I have seen, is that it can only be traded retrospectively.
> 
> The challenge for EW practitioners is to post up trades in the moment, along the cycle, to show execution and profitability. No one has ever been able to do it.



See my reply to Porper. You can't trade using EW alone as it only tells you where you might be on the price cycle. Well, I guess if you were taking a long enough view and only bought on W1 and got out when W5 was rolling over you owuld make money. But some price cycles can run for several years and that's not trading - it's investing. I'm strictly short - medium term and for that EW is just one of many things I look at.


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## Greynomad99 (8 October 2021)

tech/a said:


> Used Advanced get for years and studied E/W along with Market Profile for many years.
> As for a “Practical “ trading tool I found it a great deal more subjective than analysis like M/P and VSA.
> All analysis even fundamental is subjective. The ability to apply analysis quickly and accurately while being able to verify any subjectivity quick enough to take advantage of OR take mitigating action is
> to me the key in any sort of analysis you apply.
> ...



You are right - all analysis is subjective but unless you are Nostradamus you can only trade by making value judgements based on technical or fundamental theories.  And you are right again that hindsight analysis (something my dog excels at by the way) and making patterns fit the theory won't make you money. However, charting patterns do repeat and in that respect thinks like backtrading (aka hindsight) can be quite valuable.


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## Joules MM1 (8 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> Re yout chart query you have a peak  in W2 that is higher than the point marked '1' - that is invalid in EW. The higher point is 1.




expanded flat

when price has rotated to a new trend or in a counter-trend bounce (when that bounce is part of a must-have bargain hunt and there's fast short-covering, you have buy to open and buy to close)

price makes its first leg, its a genuine buying spree, however price ascends enough on a % basis that manager now stop chasing the bargain, based on the prior severe downtrend holders who felt trapped by the down trend now take their medicine and exit as price rises
after the initial leg up you have an interruption to the (new?) trend, the ascension runs out of fuel in both direction, but there must be a direction in the nearterm so just enough buying takes price to higher highs in the ABC, this is often referred to as an expanded flat

in my estimation it is a very good sign of significant directional trend (although not enough context has printed to know for sure, I would not
bet in the opposite direction, going back to my initial comment about defining risk

typically this is a bullish signal

when the C completes at a higher level and a new impulse kicks off managers and deep pockets may have to purchase for balancing, or at least close out open sells, an ah-ha moment makes people chase and given the extreme discount (on the probability of a new baby trend)
it is a very attractive auction for day traders .....so all these things in context


even reversion ideas etc are subsumed by the EWP principal
the main reason that EWP "fails" on most stocks is because the person employing the EWP principal has failed
to notice the stocks is simply not liquid enough to print a clear signal - that is different to the signals not being there !

also, working against use of the EWP on local stocks is the distortion of the SPA ...hence my proviso about using the TradingView platform for Aus stocks (diff thread)


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## Joules MM1 (8 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> Re yout chart query you have a peak  in W2 that is higher than the point marked '1' - that is invalid in EW. The higher point is 1.




part ii

in conjunction, as i do with all my cfd trades, i want to see context to the ABC itself, to give context within context, that mean it must makes sense on an empiric level, a concise-ness

for example, after an impulse leg i would like to see the ABC have its own equality, for  example C is 100% of A
 or B is 127.2% of A inverted

these are building blocks, i am trading the right hand side of the chart

i do this in realtime


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## tech/a (8 October 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> in conjunction, as i do with all my cfd trades, i want to see context to the ABC itself, to give context within context, that mean it must makes sense on an empiric level, a concise-ness
> 
> for example, after an impulse leg i would like to see the ABC have its own equality, for  example C is 100% of A
> or B is 127.2% of A inverted
> ...




Would you mind posting a few trades real-time a few of us haven’t seen real-time use of EW


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## Joules MM1 (8 October 2021)

tech/a said:


> Would you mind posting a few trades real-time a few of us haven’t seen real-time use of EW




yes i would mind

mostly because i have molded the EWP into a set of set-ups, rather than trading on a whole series of wave patterns for trend investments or swing trades alone, i'll quickly define the larger structure then break it down into parts so i can define the bars that i can use, some are going to be 30 second bars some 4 hourly but takes a lot of work to define the structure and edit the story of recent trades relative to time frame i'm playing, they'll make sense to me but not the next person without them understanding the same game at that time, sometimes i simply throw the ideas away as just getting to cute or convoluted in an auction that's full of games requiring risk to be lowered to such an extent the work exceeds the reward likely available, not just the risk of dollars but the risk or time

mostly it is the dynamic of price lengths requiring time to stamp a context on them only to find out that that context is wrong, the risk has changed, so i can find a perfectly valid set-up on a "degree of trend" only to see the price length eaten away before i execute anything, 
based on that alone i decided to make a series of set-ups using part of the EWP which has slowly evolved into ratio hunting yet still has a large basis of the EWP in structure

i think the thing that most people expect of the EWP that they dont ask of other (subjective) trade ideas is that the EWP is a complete form unto itself even tho most people do not understand how to apply it or have never investigated enough to correctly apply it in the first place
whereas all other trade ideas are allowed to be round-about-ish, even tho the EWP was discovered and elocuted to be dynamic with price .....people apply it linearly 

i have posted a decent volume of charts showing my workings, at that trade time, still, i know that if a EWP practitioner came and went thru them without understanding the context - the relative time and price lengths - i post them on the basis of what i see unfurling and the levels where i am wrong and a whole different ball game is underway that i cannot see

i just want the pricing structure to make sense with the story i think is printing, does it fit the intent i (think i) can see
when the ratios and measure match up i have done one of three things:
1 lowered risk
2 lowered risk and defined a probably outcome or target
3 lowered risk by recognising what should not happen

if pricing is suddenly convoluted when i expect clean impulsing then i have misinterpreted the price action, or am too early
...vice versa applies
if i have summised what should be happening but the size of the price action does not fit (the degree of trend is wrong if you like)
then i am probably wrong

all these things require their own money management, applied risk verses positional risk versus trend risk

i rarely trade stocks these days, mostly xauusd and xjo cfd's 
...the EWP is not a simple application of one size when that size is too rigid to make the time versus task worth the effort x the risk

as i did earlier i shall post stocks or futures that i find useful - given the time frame i am using - this is important point here:
most traders and even investors never define a time frame to work in, yet, oddly, they demand the EWP must work in a time frame they randomly apply without even applying the principal correctly themself !

coffee

olt:
none of us are equal in knowledge, yet, we are not different to each other, this is the essence of the EWP,
that alone is a useful insight to have about oneself, it is what makes up herding and impulsing trend
and when two groups of buyers and sellers cannot agree then we get a series of chops until one group
can endogenously dominate the other, this is applicable at all degrees of trend, everyone is subsumed or consumed within


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## tech/a (8 October 2021)

@Joules MM1 
One of the best pieces I’ve seen written on someone’s personal use of a methodology 
Yeh I get it and no I don’t need to see or understand it. Agree that most are looking for definity but won’t find it 

I’ve done similar with VSA


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## Joules MM1 (8 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> Re yout chart query you have a peak  in W2 that is higher than the point marked '1' - that is invalid in EW. The higher point is 1.




part iii

i apologise for tardiness in the initial post

to elucidate (some):









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1 (9 October 2021)

Greynomad99 said:


> Re yout chart query you have a peak  in W2 that is higher than the point marked '1' - that is invalid in EW. The higher point is 1.



as reference, i misspoke,  running flat not an expanded flat



			https://worldcyclesinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Elliott-Wave.012-001.jpg


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## Joules MM1 (9 October 2021)

this stock (not held) has been run in the monthly ASF comp for several months

a simple impulse, clean lift where it should print, and overlapping that fits a layering uptrend

it does have an underlying driver external to it but that need not be a consideration unless you decide to use it as an extreme sentiment to fit the construct of the stock pricing

 with a clean channel

it carries typical qualities and ratios, a clearly defined level to exit 









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




an EWP count in progress


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## Joules MM1 (14 October 2021)

what comes next should make sense, should sit within the confines of the prior structure, not to predict the future rather to protect
against bias and set levels of protection, of course that is based on the extent of the practical application by the practitioner

in this instance the count is offering an idea that the market is not just letting me "off the hook" of bias, rather, todate, it clarifies that
we have more in the same direction, if anything else transpires other than the count, the larger count road map may still be intact but the nearterm construct requires levels be adhered to ( lifter to .325) and patience applied

in this instance, given the current applied count, when price over laps it is the old holders exiting on best price available on the day, we know this because this particular stock had a recent history, since the low, of having the first 3 levels in the DOM at a 1.5 to 1 ratio (bid versus offer) in most of the steps, the steps are signs of patient buyers, these types of buyers we can argue have the pockets that are not prone to jittery reflex
... so buyers were patiently waiting and when no more supply would come price would be pushed upwards, this happens until the crowd has to be in and needs to chase the available supply that is thinning out, this is a natural course for an auction, this idea about volume is within the confines of what the construct says we should be seeing, yes i agree that that is somewhat misleading, the construct is asking what does the external data offer, how does the data fit the construct and not the other way around

it is specific to this part of the construct that we can say overlapping is permissible, in all other instances overlapping is a negative sign, usually only adaptive to retracements and congestion zones, or the end of major leg where smart money has to be patient for late commers to take up what theyre selling and that paints the correct picture, it gives us confidence that if we are exiting based on the structure then we agree that the story we are applying fits the construct not the other way around

looking at todays chart, this stair-stepping is in need for a break-away to print soon, clearly that is the point of inflection that the auction is saying the cats out of the bag, you're either in or you miss out

in the 1's n 2's scenario, these are rare, if you have kept charts on an hourly basis you'll find them, theyre worth researching, a warning,
in realtime you can be ahead of what price is telling you, that's not the fault of the principal, so when you see a series of ones and two's without correct context you'll see in them what confirms  your bias, you are confirming your bias not the EWP

in retracements and congestion the overlapping is confirming firstly that we have exited an impulse or we're within an interruption to that impulse leg, either way ideas about what should happen within the confines of the structure alone need to be defined for protection and if a decision needs to be made for scaling, or what likely levels we should expect to see for any additional entries

in this chart, todate, we have a simple impulse leg up, with a running flat correction, followed by what should be a wave 3, which contains a series of tight steps

running flats are a clear indicator of intent within the auction to get going north, it is anticipatory without the necessary legs (volume and commitment by money that matters) there are usually markers, theyre contextual, in this instance the running flat is a simple ABC where the C leg equals the A leg at 100% - this is common, ratios that are in context assist the outlook in defining probabilites that the annotations are correct todays and what is likely to come next, again, if we veer away from that count and context then we should know to what to look for, to avoid complacency and risk, traders make a running flats so do investors trader make weak price discovery whereas investors comes in and support price at the end of the running flat, we should expect to see this activity

please bare with while i get some of this onto the page, seeing and knowing are a far stretch from explaining, eek!

if we place into context the very clean first leg up, followed by a well constructed running flat and a series of stair-steps higher, it is not
unwise to anticipate the next move to be swift in the trend direction, the construct should now confirm that we are in a series of 3's
(if you have 6 steps that should translate to 6 legs of widening 3's and the volume and momentum commensurate), this coinstruct should also offer a concise level to protect or exit on, different to a level where we might consider adding on a discount

it is vitally important to get away from the idea of prediction and into the idea of workable progress, sure we can look for targets and work congestion zones with ratios, build context for forward looking, these things are about protection, hence the reason that all counts be accompanied with an alternate count, the alternate count stands in as a what-if, sometimes the construct can be viewed in several ways so we need an alternative probability in mind for when suddenly breaks down and does something different to the road map, again this requires its own context and relative size of moves that are printing

players who use the EWP to be aggressive need to be extremely well versed in the principle at all degrees of trend and have all forms in their memory, other than that, all standard trading governance applies (hint: if you lack good trader governance you'll be bad at EWP)

one small advantage is the saying "when the moves over the moves over"
that means when a construct has completed it should not travel any further specific to the construct we have, there is nothing arbitrary or subjective about this, it is a completed construct, therefor anything printing beyond that construct (at all degree of trend) is a large warning sign you are not seeing the chart or price activity correctly, it should refocus you to question your road map, or, at least some part of that road map needs to be re-assessed, i suspect in all instances better to put that trade set aside and come back after time away.

we could look at this chart and project price, not a great idea right now i dont think, mostly we need to be focused on the channel and the count and that price remains within the confines of the channel and the construction prints in successive steps higher, given the news background, the probabilities of extended uptrend look very promising, the SPA today closed fractionally below the high, volume can be seen in several ways, is subjective of itself, one thing we can say is that price cannot ascend without decent supply and have a healthy price construct, these two ideas are self-affirming, if price was racing uphill but the volume (in the current construct) was very thin i would be warey of what is going on, ( let's not be naive, those are not investors, the opposite is taking place, so it maybe a warning signal to be quick to exit when the exit signal comes, the EWP does not print on any particular traders time frame, just like the auction it doesnt care if youre on the ball or not!) when the auction becomes a little heavy on the offer side that allows buyers to get ample supply, we still have an instance of players exiting "because it can't go any higher[surely!]" and those players are keen to bank coin

with the construct of MLX in hand i am inclined to sit shtoom, let the price tell me what it is doing, the idea of workable progress is to have the price dictate actions......

there are many competing ideas about volume, it can be argued that volume does not play a role in EWP, i think its a useful tool as a secondary consideration, in other words the EWP subsumes all other considerations and is the final decision maker, in that regard any facility (indicia, volume, clustering etc) can be assisting in framing what makes sense as you gain experience, theyre secondary

the only tool i have used, with instruments that have good volume, are ratios, not to be confused with (point to point) Fibonacci,
this has been very good entry and exit tool, not just for transactional pricing, rather for construct, it adds to specificity, takes me away from
holding onto a long piece of string .....

as i have proposed this stock for this thread i thought to put MMWMMI and bought some at 0.360's, i was not concerned if it pulled slightly which it did to 0.330's, well within the confines of the construct, rather i was more concerned that i was running out of excuses when i have already said outloud that this is a decent risk/reward proposition

price for this instrument should not print below 0.325 in the current cycle

small caveat here, having bought at 36's with a stop out at 325's that's a sizeable % drop right?
this is the risk versus reward moment, given the late entry, how well does the construct support this risk?

EWP can only reveal what is transpiring within the auction, keeping in mind that all degrees of trend are active at all times, it is the traders job to know they have enough data, the instrument is liquid enough, they understand how to apply the principal, that prediction is about them and not the method, you predict - the EWP merely reflects to you what you want to receive when misapplying  ...sometimes ya gunna be wrong, every single method on the planet is sometimes gunna be wrong, every method takes a drawdown, repeatability is the key, if the EWP does not make sense to you then that is all you need to know, then you can immediately move onto a method that best  "fits" you

EWP has a series of rules and guidelines
rules cannot be adjusted or muted, guidelines can be twofold: expectant and transient, in all instances we are looking for form and construction, 
price lengths have their part, they are governed by form, this is not the same as round-peg-square-hole, form encompasses construct
within the impulse or corrective set, they are endogenous, this allows you to have empirical empathy for what is printing, youre allowing
price to dictate (trans)actions while educating yourself on what should not be happening and contextualise the size of the move so you can take advantage of what is happening

in this chart below if the series of higher highs and higher lows are broken they have a specific message and changes the whole outlook, 
... without this construct build we may be of the notion to just hang in there, it'll come back







what is the difference between a paraglide, a hangglider, a single prop, a twin-prop, a jet, 737
if you want to fly somewhere, regardless the destination, the appropriate transport is key
you would never confuse any of them with a helicopter or a drone, 
the difference be tween a directional and anti-directional trade
surgeons have a specific language for surgery
the more risk taken on the more specific the requirement of inspection needs to be
and it needs to be empathetic to a dynamic price in the same way a 737 pilot would deal with windsheer


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## Greynomad99 (15 October 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> what comes next should make sense, should sit within the confines of the prior structure, not to predict the future rather to protect
> against bias and set levels of protection, of course that is based on the extent of the practical application by the practitioner
> 
> in this instance the count is offering an idea that the market is not just letting me "off the hook" of bias, rather, todate, it clarifies that
> ...



An interesting post. I find some of the language you use a little hard to follow but the logic is clear. You drill right down into EW and that's good but after studying the subject and finding EW's fine detail impossibly difficult to follow in real time because counts can be easy to see with hindsight but tough when trying to look ahead at anything more than the general direction - ie where on the current price cycle am I?
I'm not in MLX but have been watching it and as an academic exercise I thought I'd see if I would have bought in on your $0.36 trade and the answer was - probably not as I saw the risk outweigh the reward. Of course I don't know what your profit aspirations were as to time or return and after yesterday you are up 10% and perhaps that was your target. If so, well done, as it is hard to sneeze at a quick 10% profit, but for what it is worth here's my thoughts.
As per the chart below I'd say we're pretty close to the top of W5 with the recent retracement being a sub-wave 4 of said W5. I see price rising in the shaded channel and my view would be that MLX is running out of puff and while there may be a bit of overshoot of the channel top boundary I'd be suspecting it could fall bag significantly.
Back to EW, when I look at the big picture (all the historical data available) I'm thinking this current wave is a larger Wave 1 and if so price might now fall away into W2. It's hard to determine wave length as they can vary so much - ie W1 might run for 12 months in one cycle and 4 years in a prior cycle (as MLX did) - but the current wave from C to 5 looks too short to be anything than W1 of a bigger cycle.
Just my thoughts and as always, time will prove who is right and who is wrong. I wish you luck with your trade and keep your analysis coming.


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## tech/a (15 October 2021)

Spent sometime reading through the logic with the various counts.
As always with E/W the counts can and do alter over time. To trade from 
the hard right hand edge with so much subjectivity I found Nigh on impossible.

I purchased Advanced get about 8 years ago and found the algo's helpful in particular identifying wave 3 s
but even so it was still a discretionary trading method using a trade identification mechanism ---A-Get.

While I agree it does help with structure I found that if it wasn't painfully obvious it never was going to be.
I just couldn't justify time for reward and found other technical tools less subjective and much easier to 
apply with better accuracy when anticipating a move or structuring a trade.


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## Sean K (15 October 2021)

Still no live EW trade example. I don't understand how hard it can be.


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## peter2 (15 October 2021)

What, you didn't like my EW interpretation of @finicky 's "bouncey, bouncey call on *CHN*?  It was seconded by Joules (my interpretation, not the bouncey one).


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## finicky (15 October 2021)

*bouncy bouncy
From the school of prescience


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## Sean K (15 October 2021)

peter2 said:


> What, you didn't like my EW interpretation of @finicky 's "bouncey, bouncey call on *CHN*?  It was seconded by Joules (my interpretation, not the bouncey one).



@finicky  bouncey bouncy analysis is the best EW theory application I have seen in the last 15 years of ASF.


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## Joules MM1 (21 November 2021)

continuing with the $mlx (holding) annotation









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					www.tradingview.com
				




the 13 steps are unusual and not outside the rules, the instrument greatest influence is the  commodity sector, nuances differ
structurally in some degrees of trend*, but, structure can take any form that stays within the rules,
the larger degree message should be clear, as is the case with MLX, we still have several larger degrees to travel in this up-cycle
.. i suspect a momentum thrust due soon

*excepting the GSC degree does not print for commods

as price is merely printing "more of the same", inline with what structure calls for, thus far,  this is as live a profile as is needed


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## Joules MM1 (29 November 2021)

$mlx form and function

time is a relative observation not a deciding factor, even so, healthy bulls produce robust rejections of selling, making traders pull offers,
with ample enough supply buyers step on the gas









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## Joules MM1 (1 December 2021)

$mlx
momentum has "more" focus within specific parts of an uptrend, theyre far less likely to incur
 large rotations and any sudden swings that do hit, like we saw this week, are quickly consumed (by buyers in the uptrend)
the difference (the construct is defining) between final buying opportunity (reducing risk) and weeding out the weak holders

momentum should fit the construct









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					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1 (24 December 2021)

> $mlx price may want to take some time to track sideways as expansion taps the roof of the channel, structure says we have a few more shekels to go, if we close above the channel we can expand x 2








						MLX - Metals X Limited
					

pacman trend build https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tjt920bk/  ...which is nice




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				




the above (december 7th) was based on burst into the top of the orthodox channel
the count at the high can be annotated in several ways so am not in rush to get ahead of what price is saying, however it was clear that
we had a momentum peak, seasonal coin bank and peak in sentiment,

price is currently the most extended of all pullbacks and "looks" typical of a whipsaw pullback in a healthy trend, if we look at the volume from a _price-structure_ point of view (as opposed to market or volume structure) the node at .040's would act as a magnet, price rotating back north above 0.400's would add to the bull construct as that's saying demand meets supply printing a new node that fits with price structure

 it's a commodity stock, prone to compression and energy release, with the prior annotations still valid,  no point in predicting as the current count is open to interpretation, i have no clear reason to close the holding, let it run, gmtfo at 0.365's

as with all interpretations about trend, which are all subjective, all speculative, everything valuable is in the price, prior to _everything_ else








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## Joules MM1 (29 December 2021)

added today at .460's
fast pullback, may not be complete, risk remains 0.365's
a ratio between two points is rarely reliable, there's one there, again, not typical of commods, however, in emotive structures
doesnt matter the sector, could be any instrument
as the current holding is well in the green, adding on pullback, which is the largest todate, well within the current up channel, makes sense








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## Joules MM1 (29 December 2021)

as there is no interaction in this thread shall make that the last post for mine


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