# VML - Vital Metals



## CanOz (3 December 2006)

Searched for this but could not find a thread. Nice uptrend and it may be a good time to take a position depending on Mondays action. Any other comments on this one?

Cheers,


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## danc (7 November 2007)

Nice up trend back then, bdy nice up trend now. Day week an mth charts, close day line charts, point and figure charts all tell the same story and plenty of vol up its tail.


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## jman2007 (17 February 2008)

Lol, not much action on this thread lately!

This companies presentation was one that impressed me at the RIU 2008 Explorers Conference in Fremantle WA recently.

*Flagship Project:* Watershed tungsten project
*12 month high:* approx 98c
*current price:* 53.5c

VML have been aggressively drilling out their Watershed project in QLD, and announced a maiden JORC resource in June 07 21.8Mt at 0.26% WO3 for 56,000t (indicated and inferred) of contained WO3.  While modest in grade, if Watershed goes ahead it will be a significant global producer and will account for 6% of global production.  VML are confident that mine life will be in excess of 10 yrs.  Significant exploration has been continuing in the meantime, with a new resource due in April 08.

Labour supply should not be a major issue, with the proposed mine located less than 100km from Mareeba.  132kV power supply from main road, 23km away.  Feasibilty study due to be completed Aug 08, with production scheduled for late 2009/2010.  The capital structure is quite tight, with 106M shares on issue and the company is reasonably well funded with $7.5M cash on hand. VML also have two other prospective, if less advanced, projects prospective for tungsten and moly in WA, Mt Alexander and Mt Mulgine.

*Strengths:* 
- Targeting a relatively straight forward open pit design.
- Reasonably straight forward geology, ore hosted in a series of steeply   plunging vein 'swarms'.
- Market reserach carried out by VML indicate tungsten supply will continue to remain tight, due to curtailing supply from China. 
- Recent forecasts indicate tungsten prices set to exceed US $300/MTU.
- Metallurgical and optimisation studies well advanced.
- Native Title negotiations well advanced.

*Weaknesses:*
- Modest grade.
- Thin international market for their product.
- Extreme difficulty in obtaining finance for specialty metals projects, for the abovementioned reason.  
- Debt financing from end-users such as banks while creating less dilution for shareholders, can lead to construction delays and restrictions.
- Commodity risk if tungsten price falls.

*Verdict:*
Have we found the floor at approx 53c?...not being a t/a myself, would require some input from other members.  If debt financing proves difficult, VML may look for a JV partner to help fund offtake.  In all cases, moly and tunsten projects in Australia have been hit by delays across the board, although VML are advancing their project at a decent rate, and imo the outlook appears promising, I think I'll place them on my watchlist!

Additional feedback very welcome.

Cheers
jman


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## 4fundamentals (4 August 2009)

Hi!,

I just took a position in this stock based on purely fundamentals.

I have been watching this stock quite closely and kicking myself every day it went up.

I have a short term target price of $0.16.  I bought in at $0.082 

Just wondering if there is any Techie's out there that could give me there thoughts?

Cheers.


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## Golf 16 (4 August 2009)

4fundamentals said:


> Hi!,
> 
> I just took a position in this stock based on purely fundamentals.
> 
> ...




Not really a techie but I am happy to post a chart and ask for comments and contributions. 
Very little has happened to the SP following the flurry of activity when VML recommenced trading on 1 May. It was suspended for nearly 2 1/2 months!! After it settled down the SP has been pretty flat and very little volume. There has been plenty of activity in the last 5 days. You can see, volume is at or above the SMA (50) and a significant upturn in the MACD and the RSI has occured. MACD has broken through 0.0 and the divergence is positive. The RSI after many weeks of <50 is now >50 but not yet in overbought territory. Both of these seem favourable for an upturn in the SP, however I have no evidence or information upon which to base a 'target price'. I wonder if you could share your insight behind stating 16 c as a short term target price? 
I do hold this stock but it has performed well 'under par'.
Cheers
Golf.


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## 4fundamentals (5 August 2009)

Wow, Alot of fantastic info there. Thank you very much for your insight.

As of the 30 June 2009 VML has approximately on issue 133,819,777 shares. 

Based on 2008 Financial Statements Net Total Assets: $24.7 Million.

This gives NTA/Share: $0.1829 

This is probably my favorite indicator for "value". 

I am a value based fundamental investor.  Naturally I am not a day trader.  I will hold a stock for a period of 3-8 months and perhaps longer. 

Essentially, my other indication of Share Price movements is my expectation of Tungsten prices within the next 6-12 months. 

Here is a Tungsten Price Chart which displays tungsten prices well below the required US$200/mtu. 

http://www.asianmetal.com/metal_pri...OB▲China&PriceUnit=USD/mtu&startdate=2008-8-5

I believe for the Watershed Project to be viable Tungsten prices must rise above US$200/mtu.   

Here is a report on Tungsten:-

http://www.asianmetal.com/report/en/2008wu_en.pdf
(read page 13 of 14).

In addition during 2007 and 2008 China has begun to impose export duties on Tungsten products.  I believe that China values Tungsten and wants to protect this resource. 

Anyway, these are some of my thoughts.  

Cheers,

Boh


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## lazyfish (14 September 2009)

4fundamentals said:


> Wow, Alot of fantastic info there. Thank you very much for your insight.
> 
> As of the 30 June 2009 VML has approximately on issue 133,819,777 shares.
> 
> ...




I noticed that you mentioned 'value' a few times on several threads. Like you I go by fundamentals and do not day trade, so to speak. But I am not comfortable using net assets for mining companies because exploration and development costs are often capitalised, i.e. included as (intangible) asset, and it is often a very large sum. Whether these costs are justified can be very subjective. These costs are tested against impairment, which again, is very subjective. *In the case of VML, $15.8 was recorded as impairment from exploration and evaluation in the half year financial report, bringing the net asset down from 24.9M in June 2008 to 8.3M in Dec 2008* (See half year report on 01 May 2009, note 3)

The second problem is that during fire sale, assets such as plants go for next to nothing. For example, the Hellyer mill was sold at under 2M when the owner went bust, while it has an estimated replacement cost of 100M (not sure how much was carried on book).


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## 4fundamentals (28 September 2009)

LuckyFish,

You are probably right, you may have a much better valuation method then I do. 

I didn't say that I was a pro or anything like that I just thought there was some value within Vita Metals at the time, which, at the time was trading at $0.08 or something like that. 

I was an idiot and sold out at $0.09 making a very small and meaningless profit. VML is now at $.11, it just goes to show I should stick by my valuation. 

Thanks for your insight.


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## springhill (7 August 2012)

MC - $8.5m
SP - 3.5c
Shares - 241m
Options - NQ
Cash - $440k (+$3m funding facility)

*JUNE QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS*
Watershed Tungsten Project, Queensland
● Confidence in Watershed mineral resource estimate increased following completion of updated Independent resource estimate which has been classified and reported using JORC Code and Guidelines.
● Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources now total 20.6Mt at 0.25% WO3 for 50,700 tonnes WO3 at a 0.10% WO3 cut off.
● Metallurgical test work progressing towards completion by end of Q3 2012.
● Project Environmental Management Plan submitted to the Department of Environment and Heritage Protection and undergoing assessment.

The following provides a summary of achievements and progress during the quarter:
 The Environmental Management Plan was submitted to the Department of
Environment and Heritage Protection (DEHP) towards the end of June. The
Department has acknowledged receipt of the document and advised that the
first comments will likely be received towards the end of July;
 Optimisation of the gravity program (G+F) which involves the last stages of sulphide flotation and magnetic separation is almost complete. The program has been delayed by slow laboratory turn-around and an extended program of optimisation based on continual up-date of results. It is anticipated that the program will be completed by September;
 WOO flotation work underway at GZRINM in China is progressing well with the work moving beyond the rougher stages into optimising the cleaner stages to produce a clean 65% WO3 concentrate. The program remains on budget and on track for completion in September;
 CONSULMET, a specialised technology company serving the mining industry in Europe, Africa and Australia has been commissioned to undertake the design and cost assessment of the two process options (G+F and WOO). Preliminary front-end design has commenced on the G+F processing option with indicative process plant design layout, process flow diagrams, process & instrumentation drawings and inclusive of equipment and power requirements, costs and overall design criteria. Completion of this work is on track for the end of September and the results will be used for pit optimisation studies;
 The Indigenous Land Use Agreement (ILUA) has been lodged for registration with the National Native Title Tribunal.



Doulnia Gold Project, Burkina Faso
● Four new gold prospects have been identified from geochemical soil sampling.
● A program of trench sampling at Boungou South on the Zeko tenement has returned some good widths of gold mineralisation with a best result of 12m @ 2.2 g/t Au from trench BT01.

Further work is recommended on the Kollo gold project before a JORC Code resource can be estimated. Drilling is being planned to follow up gold mineralised structures which have reported gold intercepts such a project best gold intercept of 5m @ 60.36 g/t gold from 75m (including 2m @ 128.50 g/t gold from 76m) for hole KRC260, 18m @ 2.95 g/t gold from 37m (KRC001), 31m @ 3.19 g/t gold from 34m (KRC019)2 and 44m @ 6.39 g/t gold from 8m which included 4m @ 58 g/t gold from 24m (KRC210)

Four new gold prospects have been added to the portfolio and Kollo and Boungou South gold prospects remain attractive targets requiring further exploration. Drilling, auger sampling and field mapping are being planned to commence once the wet season has ended.


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## shyguy (16 December 2014)

just interested to know if anyone has any insight into the recent price drop around november?


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## Miner (4 August 2017)

3 years almost since last posting. AIs any one keeping interest on VML? At 1.0 to 1.1 cent what is the worth  going?


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## barney (17 July 2018)

As mentioned in the Top Risers thread, I have placed an order for the Open in the morning on VML.

Logic behind the trade

1) Current Market Cap --- $16 million

2) Current Cash position approx. $4 million (includes recent Cap Raise at 0.009 cps)

3) Company has an agreement with TGN for the Sale of their North QLD Tungsten "Watershed" Project for $15 million Cash 

4) They have an earn in to spend $5 million over 2 years on the Bouli Gold Project in West Africa

Recent drilling included very good strikes below with further results soon ---

*8m at 7.26 g/t Au from 195m*, including 2m @ 26.7 g/t Au and 

*20m @ 5.79 g/t Au*


In my view the Chart is in a good position to accumulate around the Cap Raising price as Traders opt out at break even …. If The $15 million sale goes through, the Company will be sitting at Cash value with around $18 million in the bank and a high potential Gold Project in the pipeline.

Only obvious downside is the high number of shares on issue (1.7 billion) which could make for extended periods of churning.  

If the Sale to TGN is delayed or falls through there may be some short term price retreat.

Because it is a phase 1 accumulation trade any stop loss at this point is totally discretionary. If there is no negative news but the SP retraces further I will likely take a second position depending on the price action.










​


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## barney (17 July 2018)

Order filled on Open …..  

The deal breaker for taking a trade this early with the Chart still in what I am hoping is accumulation phase, was the $15 million dollar deal with TGN.

Any Spec with a Market Cap to Cash ratio of 1:1 with over $15 mill in the bank should be a low risk trade in the medium term.

The deal is supposed to be finalised this Friday … If it goes ahead I think the trade will be positive … if the deal breaks, then the SP will drop …. that is the risk.


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## barney (27 July 2018)

Deal with TGN finally signed so VML will receive $15 million in cash early August ….. Current Market Cap of around $15 million with cash in the bank of around $17 million … Enviable position for a Spec

There are a lot of shares on issue so the  0.01 resistance area will take a bit of cracking before any move higher and the day traders will need to be involved.  Happy to hold given the Cash position


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## barney (18 October 2018)

Been sitting on this one for a while ….

Took a small position at 0.009 as an "early entry" to show how clever I was …. So that didn't work out great

The Company announced their gold project was possibly not quite as good as first thought so plan B came into action

My analysis for taking an early entry had changed slightly but the basis of it was the Company's high cash to market cap position, so I took a much larger position at 0.008  … 

Anyway a Spec with a market cap smaller than their cash position is a rare commodity in this day and age so when the opportunity arose I took another medium position at 0.007  … yes they call it averaging down … frowned upon by the purists but no guts no glory right

Anyway when Phil Coulson took a huge position recently with Troca enterprises and the price action showed some serious accumulation going on at 0.007 I figured there is likely something going to happen at some point not too far down the track 

Today 0.008 almost got line wiped as I had been expecting after all the accumulation at 0.007 so the boys have their positions ….. My gut feel is the Company will either be taken over/wound up for its cash value or they will engage a partner in a "good deal" …. either way it should still be a low risk punt so I still hold and hope for that good news spike above 0.01 and beyond 

We shall see whet eventuates in good time!


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## barney (12 March 2019)

barney said:


> Been sitting on this one for a while ….
> 
> We shall see whet eventuates in good time!




5 months later and still sitting patiently

Do I still think I will make money out of this trade …… yep

Why?   Nothing has really changed …. Still being accumulated, and today they announced less than marketable sale facility to lighten the register of deadwood.

Major S/H Phil Coulsten still accumulating …… 

Another single $90,000 order went through earlier today and 0.008 got line wiped (again)

Its like a fine boutique beer …… taking a while to brew. 

See how it is in another 5 months


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## barney (9 May 2019)

barney said:


> 5 months later and still sitting patiently
> 
> Do I still think I will make money out of this trade …… yep
> 
> Its like a fine boutique beer …… taking a while to brew.




Anyway …. 2 months since my last post ….. My average buy in is around 0.008 cents so after the last couple of days price action, the 1 cent region is looking like it may hold (almost half a million $$ traded today in what has been a fairly inactive stock since I bought in a long time back)

I still feel confident of this turning into a good trade, but my method was far from perfect in the outset.

I wont be surprised to see this Co. taken over morphed into something completely different sometime over the next few months.

Main reason for initially taking the trade was the calculated "low risk" aspects. That still stands so I hold.

See how it pans out and maybe post a chart if it gets real interesting.


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## barney (9 May 2019)

Its probably early but a Chart just for the record …..


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## barney (17 June 2019)

Bit of movement at the station this morning.


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## barney (17 June 2019)

49 million shares changed hands before today's Trading Halt …… 

Company to announce a material acquisition by Wednesday. 

Phil Coulsen has been buying up over recent months and is now an Executive Director of the Co.  Where there is smoke there is fire


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## barney (25 June 2019)

barney said:


> Company to announce a material acquisition by Wednesday. Phil Coulsen has been buying up over recent months *Where there is smoke there is fire*




So it seems …… VML to purchase Cheetah resources ….. REE business with ex-Lynas personnel …. could prove a massive turn around for VML.


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## barney (29 June 2019)

My entry into this month's Competition …..

I have held this for a while based on their cash balance. The have recently announced a deal with a private "Rare Earth" Co. (Cheetah Resources) 

They have Directors who worked with "Lynas" so there are experienced personnel involved …… 

I expect some longer term appreciation …. I've held a substantial amount of Shares for a while now but expect further appreciation over the next few months/years. 

Low risk/high reward scenario in my assessment


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## Sean K (1 July 2019)

barney said:


> My entry into this month's Competition …..
> 
> I have held this for a while based on their cash balance.....
> 
> Low risk/high reward scenario in my assessment



What do you think about the change in focus barney? You must have originally bought this for the gold and base metal exploration projects, not rare earth? You couldn't possibly have just bought it because they have some cash in the bank?


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## barney (1 July 2019)

kennas said:


> What do you think about the change in focus barney? You must have originally bought this for the gold and base metal exploration projects, not rare earth? You couldn't possibly have just bought it because they have some cash in the bank?




Howdy @kennas  … always good to see "old ASF-ers" lurking

My initial interest WAS actually the potential cash from the original TGN deal … Their Gold prospect looked ok as well, but even though that basically fell over, the cash deal came through, so I decided to stay involved (cash for a spec is pretty compelling as you know)

Given the cash backing and the constant buying of Phil Coulson plus his added involvement in becoming a Director, it still seemed a low risk trade overall.

Re the Rare Earths:-  it is pretty trendy …. over the years I have learned that trendy is actually ok, as long as you aren't the last person to "pass the parcel"

So basically, I am happy with managements choices … (I actually bought more at 0.012 …. that decision could well be considered "early" given the price action (my timing is often poor, so guilty as charged!!)

I still see the trade overall as low risk for a Spec … It may turn to crap, but I've had plenty of "turn to crap" trades, so no big deal, as long as I have a few not so "turn to crap trades" to offset the bad ones

Good to see you are still around and kicking!!  Hope life is treating you well


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## barney (1 August 2019)

My monthly comp pick again for August. Chart tells the story. 

The two attempts to break 0.015 were a long way apart and essentially for totally different event scenarios given VML's new Project plans. 

The selling into the last spike was likely profit taking and stale bulls exiting so a retracement period is to be expected.

Hoping for the tight range to hold in the short term, and a bounce back above 0.014 in an ideal world


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## barney (25 September 2019)

VML has continued in a tight range since my last post, so 1.5 months of 0.09-0.10 trading on light Volume.

Director Peter Cordin announced he is stepping down to allow restructure of the Board since the Cheetah acquisition.  

Exec Director Zane Lewis was notably full of praise for Mr. Cordin's contribution over many years.  

It shouldn't be long before important further news on the future plans of the Company are released and I am expecting another push on the SP as it unfolds …. (I hold)


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## barney (11 October 2019)

barney said:


> It shouldn't be long before important further news on the future plans of the Company are released and I am expecting another push on the SP as it unfolds …. (I hold)




VML never jumps in straight lines and has had long periods of Accumulation in the past.  

I hold so I watch it closely. Last couple of days have seen interest with good accumulation today at 0.011

This might take another month, but it is positive price action for this little minnow


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## barney (16 October 2019)

barney said:


> I hold so I watch it closely. Last couple of days have seen interest with good accumulation today at 0.011  This might take another month, but it is positive price action for this little minnow




Under a week and the Accumulation went to the 0.012 's today with over 4 million shares traded at 0.013 in the after market auction ….. This is how it normally trades before it moves  … positive price action


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## barney (20 November 2019)

barney said:


> Accumulation went to the 0.012 's today with over 4 million shares traded at 0.013 in the after market auction ….. This is how it normally trades before it moves  … positive price action




A month later and price action is still following the expected path … tight ranging with what appears accumulation going on at each level.

Today's Volume was a bit higher at 24 million shares traded but that is good accumulation V for this minnow …. The lack of Ultra high Volume is positive at this point.

Market is expecting an update sometime in November on the JORC 2012 conversion to Oz standards.

That in itself will not be a huge catalyst for price movement but I expect some positive response to what should be good news.

_*The Company expects to release a JORC 2012 Resource for the North T and Tardiff Zone in November 2019. In addition, the Company intends to ultimately convert the full 149.3Mt resource into JORC status in due course*_


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## barney (5 December 2019)

These guys are well on the way to a low cost mechanical sorting method to obtain 35% REO ….. Early days, but this could be very lucrative given the minimal plant cost requirements … interesting times ahead.


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## barney (19 December 2019)

It may be a slow boat to China but the ducks are lining up nicely here.

All three Directors buying on market yesterday. 

Evan Cranston the largest order buying 15,000,000 shares at $180,000 which means he increased his current holding 10X ….  (at 12 cents per share)

Phil Coulson topped up with another 5,000,000 at $60,000

And Zane Lewis bought 9,000,000 at $96,000

Directors buying means we will likely have to wait a month before any news, so hopefully mid January might see some interesting developments with their Rare Earth deposits.


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## barney (30 December 2019)

barney said:


> Directors buying means we will likely have to wait a month before any news, so hopefully mid January




Nothing moves quickly with VML but its my pick in the January monthly comp. I am hoping the recent Director buying might be a prelude for some news later in the month.


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## barney (22 January 2020)

barney said:


> Nothing moves quickly with VML but its my pick in the January monthly comp. I am hoping the recent Director buying might be a prelude for some news later in the month.




Bugger all trading on VML at the moment and current sitting at 0.011  

It has the occasional habit of calm before the storm …..  7 Trading days till the end of January. Patience is a virtue.


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## barney (2 February 2020)

barney said:


> Bugger all trading on VML at the moment and current sitting at 0.011
> It has the occasional habit of calm before the storm …..  7 Trading days till the end of January. Patience is a virtue.




Nothing has changed since last month price wise but management are progressing their hopeful low cost entry into the Rare Earth space.

Drilling programme set down for Feb/March in the larger Tardiff zone.

Contracts in place to enable site establishment works to commence on site in March 2020 with the mobilisation of the ore sorter to site in July 2020.

We have the Ex-Lynas lads running the show and management have a lot of skin in the game. Slowly coming together.

My pick for the Feb Monthly comp.


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## barney (17 February 2020)

_Request for Trading Halt _

_Vital Metals Limited (Vital or the Company) hereby requests a trading halt from the ASX effective immediately, pending an announcement by the Company regarding *material exploration results.* _

_The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of the announcement or prior to the commencement of trading on Wednesday, 19 February 2020._

Share price has been wading around in the shallow end for a long time.  There is no doubt that the grades/resource is/will be good.  Whether the market gets on board at this early stage is an unknown, but I think they will have their day in the sun down the track.

They have cash in the bank but will need more to develop the resource so a final cap raise before any serious re rate seems likely.  I doubt they would have any trouble raising cash given the calibre of the Directors running the operation. (Holding)


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## barney (19 February 2020)

Cut and paste of the results … slightly abbreviated 

These results from the starter pit give the Co a chance at early cash flow with minimal expenditure which is a rare things for a rare earths Co …… 

Market is still back offish due to the early stage Spec nature of the Stock, but with a market cap of only $20 million I see a lot of potential. Happy to hold.

*Vital intersects ultra-high grade, near-surface REO at Nechalacho * 

● Ultra-high grades – among highest grades of rare earth projects globally at North T starter pit 

● Best results include: 
 ○ 2.4m at 38.4% total rare earth oxides (TREO) (8.1% Nd Pr) from 13m  
○ 5.1m at 22.9% TREO (5.2% Nd Pr) from 12m  
○ 5.4m at 19.0% TREO (4.3% Nd Pr) from 2m  
○ 2.4m at 29.6 %TREO (6.9% Nd Pr) from 26m 

● High value Nd/Pr content of rare earths estimated at impressive level of 23.5% TREO  

● Extensive bastnaesite mineralisation intersected that is amenable to concentration into 35%+ via conventional ore sorting technology with excellent metallurgical characteristics with 97% recoveries 

● All intersections contained within 30m of surface  

● Results to be incorporated into an updated JORC resource due before end of Q1 2020.


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## barney (17 March 2020)

I continue to accumulate VML with a longer term view. Not expecting too much action for the next few months but happy to build a large holding while it waffles around at these silly prices.

Once the current Virus issues work their way through the market I see their Rare Earths project as a potential big winner for S/H's

Pina coladas on the beach in a couple of years if all goes to plan … baked beans on toast if not


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## barney (24 April 2020)

barney said:


> I continue to accumulate VML with a longer term view.




Continued to accumulate at .005 .006 and .007   

Good news from Lynas today might bring some added attention to VML with LYC being awarded a Phase 1 contract from the US Dept. of Defence.

The US will be looking for suitable Rare Earths projects and VML could find themselves in the middle of a perfect storm over the next 12-24 months.


Low risk Spec play in my view. Holding.


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## barney (5 May 2020)

As mentioned above, the Lynas SP continues to recover up again today.  

The VML lads are quietly getting on with business with some more mining approvals announced today ahead of a Presentation tomorrow.  Hopefully they can get on board the rare earths wave over the next couple of years.   

*HIGHLIGHTS *
_• Vital receives key government approval amendments to existing permits to enable development of North T zone 
• Approvals received to operate open pit mine at North T and a crushing and ore sorting facility to produce high grade (35%+) rare earth concentrate 
• Amendments to the existing Water License to accommodate the proposed operation have approved by the Mackenzie Valley Land and Water Board (MVLWB) 
• All required regulatory and environmental approvals to enable the development of an operation processing material from the North T Zone are now in place enabling rare earth concentrate production once a decision to mine has been reached. _


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## noel_ferg (5 May 2020)

Thought I'd share - tomorrow at 1pm VML's MD Geoff Atkins will presenting on the Thor Lake Rare Earth Project in Canada at the NWR Virtual Resources conference.  Great lineup of other ASX companies there as well - https://www.shareguide.com.au/nwr-virtual-small-cap-conference-resources


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## barney (20 May 2020)

barney said:


> Low risk Spec play in my view. Holding.




Interest in this little Spec seems to be returning with some handy orders going through the market recently. Still needs to break old resistance at 1.5 but creeping up on it slowly.


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## barney (30 June 2020)

My pick for this Months Comp.  Still ranging at current levels, but the occasional large trade has been mopping up at the 1.1 cent area.

Slow mover but I am a longer term holder so price action is still ok for patient punters


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## barney (16 July 2020)

Time frame of 2021 for first production with a remaining $4 million to spend on set up.  That will be some kind of record on both time and costs if they manage to do as planned. 

Current market cap of $23 million.  If they are producing before end of next year, a serious re-rate in their share price is a big possibility imo.  Holding patiently. 

Link to announcement below

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...pdf?access_token=muqBcwPLKs93XnGOAhx5frFEX9Od


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## barney (10 August 2020)

barney said:


> Current market cap of $23 million.




Market Cap still only around $30 million.  Nice Orders going through recently and up today with 0.013 line wiped earlier.

Often retraces after sharp rises but I don't mind the slow boat to China approach.









ps You still in @noel_ferg ??


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## barney (13 August 2020)

After 2 years the plan looks like coming together.  Patience is a virtue they say

Expecting it to cool off a bit now hopefully holding 1.7 or above.

They will need funding of some sort not too far down the track but if the Project numbers add up I think they will have plenty of parties interested in getting involved. 

The Canadian Government is keen, selecting VML in their Accelerated Growth Services Program (AGS).


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## frugal.rock (17 August 2020)

Bought in at 0.017 today on a minor pullback.
It may pullback further, or it may breakout. Price and volume indicate my interest.
Either way, I trust @barney and his FA b  due diligence.


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## barney (18 August 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Price and volume indicate my interest.
> Either way, I trust @barney and his FA b  due diligence.




Goddam Rock  .... Now I am under real pressure


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## frugal.rock (18 August 2020)

barney said:


> Goddam Rock  .... Now I am under real pressure



Don't sweat it, I have a process of pre-approval of a stock by FA regardless of whether I buy or not based on TA. 
So, your due diligence is enough for me to tick the ethical, it stands a chance, FA box. 
I bought in based on TA.
I don't have time to read everything... and deciphering noise and signal and claptrap comes easy with reading your posts.


----------



## barney (18 August 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> and deciphering noise and signal and claptrap comes easy with reading your posts.




Anyone who can decipher what I babble on about is obviously a gifted individual

ps I can recommend a good psychologist

VML currently in retrace mode ... didnt really want to see 0.015 but the market depth is still favorable at the current level, and given the high Volume that went through at .017  a 10% slip was probably to be expected. Its a slow burner so not  for impetuous Traders, but I like that.

Long term positives for the Stock are very high. They will need cash before the short term development can become cash producing but that is a mere $20 million which is unheard of for a high value Rare Earths project.  ( I expect a Debt Funding arrangement, but they may do a Cap Raise in the short term to tide them over to mid next year ..... I expect that would be well supported)

First 1-3 years will produce enough cash to develop what the Co expects to be a 20 year, 5000 tonne per year REO project.

Initial Offtake agreements should be close to finalization (3rd Quarter this year).

Preso out today

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...pdf?access_token=J2rFjWoOZop6vsquuCxecEEObNoY


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 September 2020)

There is an avalanche of shares waiting in the wings. From the original Cheetah acquisition Vital agreed to acquire 100% of the issued capital of Cheetah for the consideration outlined and is comprised of the following:
- Issue of *400,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares on completion;*
- Issue performance shares comprised of the following:
(i) *400,000,000 Tranche 1 Performance Shares *which will convert into Ordinary Shares in the Company on entering into binding offtake for a minimum of 1,000 kgs of contained REO in respect of the Thor Lake Project or Wigu Hill Project within 2 years of the Acquisition completion date; and
(ii) *400,000,000 Tranche 2 Performance Shares* which will convert into Ordinary Shares in the Company on commencement of mining operations at the Thor Lake Project or Wigu Hill Project.

Ordinary fully paid shares (VML)  at the time  1,742,611,288 and options in the near future included (more in 2025 + incentive shares):
2.0 cent options expiring 30 April 2021 ...   50,000,000
2.3 cent options expiring 30 April 2021 ...   27,000,000
1.0 cent options expiring 17 Nov 2021 ....   25,000,000 
Some options have converted and at end Aug 2020 VML fully paid ordinary shares total 2,155,111,289

As well as the Wigu project in Tanzania, primary focus is on Thor Lake Rare Earth Project (Canada) (acquired 100%, surface to 150m above sea level rights)
- Mining leases, environmental and water approvals granted
- Environmental permit and water licence in progress
- NI 43-101 defined Indicated and Inferred Resource
- The Nechalacho Property, of which the Thor Lake Project is a part, has been the subject of over $120M spent by Avalon Advanced Materials , the previous owners, on drilling, permitting and project development at Nechalacho, & which includes a 40-person camp and airstrip.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> There is an avalanche of shares waiting in the wings. From the original Cheetah acquisition Vital agreed to acquire 100% of the issued capital of Cheetah for the consideration outlined and is comprised of the following:
> - Issue of *400,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares on completion;*
> - Issue performance shares comprised of the following:
> (i) *400,000,000 Tranche 1 Performance Shares *which will convert into Ordinary Shares in the Company on entering into binding offtake for a minimum of 1,000 kgs of contained REO in respect of the Thor Lake Project or Wigu Hill Project within 2 years of the Acquisition completion date; and
> ...





True; it wouldn't look half-bad if there wasn't another ~1.3 billion shares flooding in when there is already ~2.1 billion shares on issue:













						VML share price and company information for ASX:VML
					

View today’s VML share price, options, bonds, hybrids and warrants. View announcements, advanced pricing charts, trading status, fundamentals, dividend information, peer analysis and key company information.




					www.asx.com.au


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## barney (17 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> There is an avalanche of shares waiting in the wings. From the original Cheetah acquisition Vital agreed to acquire 100% of the issued capital of Cheetah for the consideration outlined and is comprised of the following:




Thanks for the input D-F .... No doubt there will be a lot of Shares on issue, but their low SP means even with a 100-1 share consolidation in the future, the SP would still be small.  

Phil Coulson's involvement in teaming up with the Ex-Lynas lads who generated "Cheetah" for one purpose only (to become the next Lynas ... their words not mine lol  ) ,  gives me a lot of confidence that these chaps are on a mission.

I hope all the Cheetah boys become filthy rich so I can become slightly more financially independent than at present riding on their coat tails   Nothing ventured, nothing gained Cheers.


----------



## barney (17 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> True; it wouldn't look half-bad if there wasn't another ~1.3 billion shares flooding in when there is already ~2.1 billion shares on issue:




Lol ... You guys worry too much about SOI  ... Do I look worried with my Hi-ace full of Shares

Dare I draw the long bow and mention that BHP has over 2.5 billion SOI ...... VML will be fine, trust me


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> From the original Cheetah acquisition:
> - Issue of *400,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares on completion;*
> (i) *400,000,000 Tranche 1 Performance Shares *
> (ii) *400,000,000 Tranche 2 Performance Shares*
> ...



I believe August follows July. VML fully paid ordinary shares total *2,155,111,289 *.... It's all there in the 2A of 24 Aug

@barney . I like the fact, as you point out, it will be a cheap outcome to get the 1,000 Tonne , as the early work is done, but who is going to process it? 







> Vital aims to be the largest independent supplier of clean mixed rare earth feedstock outside China.


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## barney (17 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I like the fact, as you point out, it will be a cheap outcome to get the 1,000 Tonne , as the early work is done, but who is going to process it?




Cheers D-F

Currently VML are in a pivotal position ..... Management are expected to announce some Offtake arrangements in the near future.  (And hopefully some SP impetus off the back of that  ) 

I assume given they will be producing a "first stage" product, that they will be able to sell that to basically anyone with a processing plant, so their likely customers will be whoever offers them the best deal.

Worth bearing in mind that the majority of Rare Earths projects do not have the luxury of being able to produce that same "first stage" product as VML will due to the nature of their deposits.

Having the Lynas lads on board (Cheetah) means that they have cherry picked the most appropriate deposits to make the proposed production a reality.

Anyone reading my enthusiasm needs to also bear in mind i have been accumulating VML for a fair while so my buy in price is pretty good. Anyone considering buying in from this point in time needs to apply appropriate trading filters lest he or she be belted unceremoniously to the ends of the earth ... or to Leichardt, whichever is closer   Apologies to anyone living in Leichardt ... I used to work there and its not so bad lol.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 September 2020)

is that a cane, or a G-Pick?  
(_Young geologist getting the discovery into production_)


----------



## barney (17 September 2020)

Lol .... Whatever a G-pick is   (Gold- Goannas-Precious Gems? lol)

Now big "Green Smiley Face" is no longer with us, I have found a new friend ... "Old Man Happy" doe not lie ... he just lies down ... often  (that's his Brother)


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

barney said:


> Lol ... You guys worry too much about SOI  ... Do I look worried with my Hi-ace full of Shares
> 
> Dare I draw the long bow and mention that BHP has over 2.5 billion SOI ...... VML will be fine, trust me




I am not talking the company down; just saying that they are using up a great deal of their ammo (share dilution).

Will they still need to do a few CRs before they get to production?

I posted earlier today (TSO) that I like it when companies have milestone incentive performance rights for the management team. So I don't have a problem if the entity is being diluted; under the right conditions that will deliver results.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 September 2020)

barney said:


> Lol .... Whatever a G-pick is   (Gold- Goannas-Precious Gems? lol)



G-pick... Geologist's Tool of trade. Rock Doctor 101. That and Arthur Holmes "Principles of Physical Geology"  were mandatory purchases in Geol 1 under Prof S W Carey

(just learned its now called a rock pick)


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

barney said:


> Cheers D-F
> 
> Currently VML are in a pivotal position ..... Management are expected to announce some Offtake arrangements in the near future.  (And hopefully some SP impetus off the back of that  )
> 
> ...




Leichhardt in Queensland?


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## barney (17 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am not talking the company down; just saying that they are using up a great deal of their ammo (share dilution).  Will they still need to do a few CRs before they get to production?




All good @Chronos-Plutus  ... I appreciate yours and @Dona Ferentes input on the thread (Its been lonely in here for a while lol) 

Going back a while I noted Phil Coulson buying substantial amounts of VML.  Probably fair to surmise that he knows the  ex-Lynas lads well (my opinion). 

If a cap raise .... Assuming the Board get involved, I would be in ... but I more suspect a debt facility arrangement to get this off the ground, therefore minimal dilution.

Best case scenario, the current Ex-Lynas Board fund the production stage.   SP would get a serious lift from that, particularly if they have Offtake agreements in place  which I expect they will. 

Currently a puzzle, but a puzzle I can see some sense in    See how it eventuates over the next few months.    Specs are generally Scotch fillet or baked beans


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## barney (17 September 2020)

ps Worked in Leichardt in Sydney when I was a whipper snapper ... now I am just an old has been lol


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

barney said:


> All good @Chronos-Plutus  ... I appreciate yours and @Dona Ferentes input on the thread (Its been lonely in here for a while lol)
> 
> Going back a while I noted Phil Coulson buying substantial amounts of VML.  Probably fair to surmise that he knows the  ex-Lynas lads well (my opinion).
> 
> ...




At the moment I think it is worth a play; however I have to do more research before I commit to a position.

~30% of the shares are held by High Net Worth investors. So my assumption is that these guys want VML to go all the way to production and will hold; which helps.


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## Chronos-Plutus (17 September 2020)

barney said:


> ps Worked in Leichardt in Sydney when I was a whipper snapper ... now I am just an old has been lol




Haha; Leichhardt has changed dramatically over the last ~15 years. The suburb demographics have definitely changed substantially.

More Irish ancestry than Italian in Leichhardt these days according to the  2016 ABS:






Also Chinese languages are being more commonly spoken:










__





						2016 Leichhardt (NSW), Census All persons QuickStats | Australian Bureau of Statistics
					






					quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au


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## frugal.rock (18 September 2020)

barney said:


> Lol .... Whatever a G-pick is  (Gold- Goannas-Precious Gems? lol)



Hahahaha, an old guitarist pretending that he don't know....
Pic your g string outta the crack....
Then play your geeetar with a G pic... A glass pic


I think the clue is in the company name... "Vital"....
It's Vital.

As for Leichhardt, good luck getting a car park spot, and not stepping in dog shite on footpaths. Balmain is the worst though.....


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## barney (18 September 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Then play your geeetar with a G pic... A glass pic    As for Leichhardt, good luck getting a car park spot, and not stepping in dog shite on footpaths. Balmain is the worst though.....




Lol ....  Didn't twig, but I am old and dopey now days Best sounding pick I ever used was an old worn 10 cent piece Can't pick as fast with it, but the tone is magic  ...... regular string replacement required afterwards however lol.

I used to travel from East Hills to Leichardt to work every morning .... that was fun .... no doggy doo on the train though.

@Chronos-Plutus    ..... The point you make re the High Net S/H's is a good one.  With the retailers only holding about 40%  the number of SOI becomes less of a problem trading wise.

VML has a history of jumping, then reversing into a trading range/retracement for extended periods. At the moment it has had a little run so its in limbo.  There might be some long term resistance if it can eventually get back to 025, but that is where the action might really start.

Offtake arrangements will likely be the next catalyst for some movement .... Watch the paint dry till then.


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## barney (18 September 2020)

OK Fess up ... Which one of you guys has been buying this up today!  

If this is a cunning plan to try and get me excited it won't work.   Over 025 on the other hand it could be my shout 

(ps maybe Just a little excited)


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## Dona Ferentes (18 September 2020)

I can only admit that my offer to buy some is becoming less and less likely to eventuate....


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## Dona Ferentes (22 September 2020)

_Vital Metals and Saskatchewan Research Council have signed a binding Term Sheet to negotiate definitive agreements for the construction and operation of a Rare Earth Extraction Plant to produce a mixed rare earth carbonate product_

• In August 2020, the Government of Saskatchewan and the Saskatchewan Research Council announced a C$31 million funding package for the construction of Canada’s first Rare Earth Processing and Separating Facility in Saskatoon, Canada
• Vital’s Rare Earth Extraction Plant is planned to be located adjacent to SRC’s Separation Plant which will convert mixed rare earth carbonate to commercial grade separated rare earth oxides 
• SRC’s facility will require mixed rare earth carbonate product for separation making Vital a likely customer
• Capital cost estimate of the Rare Earth Extraction Plant is A$5.25M 
•


----------



## barney (22 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> • In August 2020, the Government of Saskatchewan and the Saskatchewan Research Council announced a C$31 million funding package for the construction of Canada’s first Rare Earth Processing and Separating Facility in Saskatoon, Canada
> • Vital’s Rare Earth Extraction Plant is planned to be located adjacent to SRC’s Separation Plant which will convert mixed rare earth carbonate to commercial grade separated rare earth oxides
> • SRC’s facility will require mixed rare earth carbonate product for separation making Vital a likely customer




They obviously have a good working relationship with both Government and the locals.   Having the processing facility basically next door will be another cost saver.

The market didn't get too excited about todays Announcement but for longer term holders its just another box being ticked.

Company again mentioned that Offtake agreements are well advanced with several Non-Chinese parties.  When that Announcement finally arrives I'd expect a bit more trader involvement .... Sitting patiently.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 September 2020)

HOP ON POP, as Dr Seuss would say.

good volume going through today... strong buying up to 24c .... so far


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## barney (22 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> HOP ON POP, as Dr Seuss would say. good volume going through today... strong buying up to 24c .... so far




Lol ..... this is one I'm glad I hopped on early ... I actually bought more earlier at 022    The word seems to have gotten around the lunch tables with a lot more action this arv.  Still early days for the Company. They seem to know how to swing a deal though with the Government backing their plans!  

A bit of late profit taking wouldn't surprise given plenty of Punters are +  ... On the flip side, there seems to be plenty of new Buyers showing interest so who knows ... Hopefully make up for a couple of my other failures recently.


----------



## barney (23 September 2020)

barney said:


> If a cap raise .... Assuming the Board get involved, I would be in ... but I more suspect a debt facility arrangement to get this off the ground, therefore minimal dilution.
> 
> Best case scenario, the current Ex-Lynas Board fund the production stage.   SP would get a serious lift from that, particularly if they have Offtake agreements in place  which I expect they will.




As intimated, a Cap Raise is now on the table ... to be expected, and possibly timely given the recent price action.

My guess would be between 02 and 022 for the CR price  but that is just a guess.

In a perfect world where I can become a gazillionaire, they will raise at a premium to market just prior to announcing Offtake agreements to the some big players including the Canadian Gov once the get their Plant up and running next door.

C/R's are normally a bit destructive. VML have asked for a double sized Trading Halt to get this one sorted. The details could be both interesting and revealing.  Happy to sit and watch the walls for a few days


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 September 2020)

barney said:


> As intimated, a Cap Raise is now on the table ... to be expected, and possibly timely given the recent price action. My guess would be between 02 and 022 for the CR price  but that is just a guess.
> 
> C/R's are normally a bit destructive. VML have asked for a double sized Trading Halt to get this one sorted. The details could be both interesting and revealing.  Happy to sit and watch the walls for a few days



looking for $8million priced at 2¢ a share, which represented a 20 per cent discount to Vital Metals' last close and a 13.2 per cent discount to the five-day VWAP.

Potential investors were told the money raised would be used to finance a plant for ore sorting and associated equipment, among other things.

so, a SPP for retail, to follow?


----------



## barney (24 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> looking for $8million priced at 2¢ a share, which represented a 20 per cent discount to Vital Metals' last close and a 13.2 per cent discount to the five-day VWAP.  Potential investors were told the money raised would be used to finance a plant for ore sorting and associated equipment, among other things.  so, a SPP for retail, to follow?




Thanks D-F .... My inside "oil" says something similar  

That makes my purchase the other day at (022) at a premium to what i could get in an SPP  Lol .....   not to worry.

I am happy if its a small C-R .... They need a few bob to get this up and running, so that means they will only dilute as appropriate.

Smart guys in management who are trying to set themselves up for life (and beyond I expect)

C-R's often stall an SP ... I doubt this will be the case for too long with these chaps.

Onwards and Upwards from here we hope!! ... hopefully not this guy   Lol


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 September 2020)

VML has received firm commitments to* raise A$8.0 million* (before costs) in new equity via a fully committed share placement to institutional, sophisticated and professional investors.  The Placement comprises the issue of approximately 400 million new shares in the Company at an issue price of *A$0.02 per Share. *

Net proceeds from the Placement will primarily be used to progress the Company towards commencing processing operations in Q2 CY2021 including the purchase of the ore sorter, sampling and met testwork, extraction plant EPCM and for general working capital.

Strong demand for the Placement resulted in additional funds being raised which will be used to accelerate further exploration and development work at the Tardiff zone within the Company’s Nechalacho Project.  Vital Metals’ Managing Director, Geoff Atkins, commented: 







> “We are pleased with the support from new investors and existing shareholders. This equity funding coupled with the recent announcement that Vital has executed a binding term sheet to construct its rare earth extraction facility adjacent to Canada’s first rare earth separation facility underpins Vital’s plans to become the World’s newest independent supplier of clean rare earth feedstock outside China. "


----------



## barney (28 September 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Strong demand for the Placement




Usually a Bar like today could be seen as negative but given the Cap Raise was at 2 cents, today's close at 3 ticks higher on high Volume indicates this could be a pivotal level/new base. 

There were plenty of Shares changing hands at 024 and 025 plus there was plenty of opportunity for profit takers or weaker hands to opt out if they wanted.

Back above 025 in the short term would be super bullish.


----------



## barney (30 September 2020)

My monthly Comp pick for October.  Price has held up well since the Cap Raise announcement a couple of days ago (020 cents).

SP pushed back to 026 at the close today but most recent Volume has been in the 024-025 range which looks the new base.

Supply looks to be thinning.  Positive news could easily see further rises given the above.

Annual Report out after hours with everything tracking along nicely for planned production starting next year.  

Plenty of upside given market cap is still modest at around $56-58 million

Holding and keen to see if we can break the 3 cent level in the near term.


----------



## frugal.rock (1 October 2020)

Good one B.
I breathed on VML this morning and failed to consider my options with enough haste. I'm old and my bones are weary...


----------



## barney (8 October 2020)

barney said:


> Holding and keen to see if we can break the 3 cent level in the near term.




I know I've been harping on about this one forever, but it looks like the word is getting out now .....

With all the ex-Lynas boys in control and looking likely to be the next Rare Earths Company into production.

It had to move eventually.  Hope a few ASFers got on board before the train got rolling  

035 level looks fairly solid and having a dabble at 036-037  .... Still have Off-Take agreements to formalize yet, so more room to move


----------



## Austwide (8 October 2020)

@barney You drew my attention to it at 1.3cents. Thanks for that and i owe you one.


----------



## barney (8 October 2020)

Austwide said:


> @barney You drew my attention to it at 1.3cents. Thanks for that and i owe you one.




Fantastic Aust     Always good to see others make a few bob. Lets hope it continues!


----------



## frugal.rock (8 October 2020)

I was in late around 0.028 I think with a partial position (91,111v)
Giddy up !
Am holding around 4 other stocks that are in the monthly comp, but unfortunately not GIB...
Cheers, and the more the merrier...


----------



## barney (9 October 2020)

Good luck @frugal.rock   At least you have some beer money already!   Probably be a flat day today after so much pushing and shoving this week.  If it holds that 035 level that would be positive enough in the short term.


----------



## over9k (14 October 2020)

Well it's had its breather barney: 







And I'm in!


----------



## barney (14 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Well it's had its breather barney:
> And I'm in!




Welcome aboard @over9k   I always get a bit nervous when other punters get involved in something I have been harping about, but even if it drops a little bit more, I'd say you are in at a fair level for a low risk/decent return Spec punt given X amount of time. The X factor is different for all of us of course, but I see this with potential for further rises at least till Production next year ...  

The anticipated Offtake announcement will likely give it another little boost, so that is what we are waiting on at the moment. Good luck!


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2020)

G'day Barney,
just bought an extra packet of VML at same price as previously bought...(0.027)
Had missed the opportunity to jump off around 0.04 and then just decided to sit it out once it started on the down.
Now, What's this anticipated offtake business about ?
Cheers.

3 month chart, figured its around a turnaround point, not trying to pick the bottom, but I think it's close enough for the bigger picture.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> G'day Barney,
> just bought an extra packet of VML at same price as previously bought...(0.027)
> Had missed the opportunity to jump off around 0.04 and then just decided to sit it out once it started on the down.
> Now, What's this anticipated offtake business about ?
> ...



nice pick


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> nice pick



Seems to have turned out that way.

Even the market seems to be throwing the US lead in out, on positive Victoria news...


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2020)

I found it hard to resist 14 green bills profit taunting and slapping me in the face.... cut and run, out on 0.030


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## barney (28 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Now, What's this anticipated offtake business about ?




Sorry Rock. Been doing some real work .. Its that time of year.  

I see you have banked your spoils so all good.

I have a longer term vision for this little battler so ride the dips with the appropriate anxiety.  I also bought the bulk of my holding at lower prices so am slightly afraid of the tax man if I cash them in at the wrong time

Accumulate the dips to 025-024 if I were trading it at the moment .... Of course I hope it doesnt revisit 025, but I am also realistic. 

It looks a low risk Spec punt for an accumulation trade around these current levels over the next 12 months given what is happening in the R/E space.   Cheers, and good trade


----------



## frugal.rock (28 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Now, What's this anticipated offtake business about ?
> Cheers.



Your like a politician... avoided the elephant in the room... haha.
Please explain?


barney said:


> Accumulate the dips to 025-024 if I were trading it at the moment .... Of course I hope it doesnt revisit 025, but I am also realistic.



Glad you said that, as I have a standing buy in on 0.028, however I am not convinced that today wasn't just a little selling melt up on the slight way down you mentioned.
Will see how things are looking tomorrow, may reduce it both size and price.
Cheers.
PS; good luck with the real work venture... hehehe


----------



## barney (29 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Your like a politician... avoided the elephant in the room... haha.
> Please explain?




Lol .... I am about as far from a politician as you can imagine Rock ... although I do look pretty spiffy in a suit! 

In all truth, I assumed because you had sold your holding, and made "beer money" for the next 12 months, that the "Offtake" arrangements may not be of interest now? lol ..

To clarify, I have a substantial "interest" in how this Company progresses, I am of the opinion that VML are in an enviable position on many fronts, with Offtake agreements being an early stage integral part of their potential success.

I do not wish to sound like a "ramper", but Offtake agreements when announced ... (and I see that as a when, not if, announcement) ..

Will show to the Market that these "ex-Lynas" lads have the backing of the "necessary investors"  in the rare earths space.  (In their case, this looks like a serious deal with the Canadian Gov on  board for a start)

This will give the Co. future guaranteed revenue and access to project financing way above a minnow Spec.

In a nutshell, 2.8 cents could look like a distant memory if the desired Offtake agreement is announced ... and that is just the start if things go to plan

As "Supertramp" voiced beautifully .... "Dreamer"   Cheers M8.


----------



## frugal.rock (29 October 2020)

barney said:


> In all truth, I assumed because you had sold your holding, and made "beer money" for the next 12 months, that the "Offtake" arrangements may not be of interest now? lol ..



Look into my crossed eyes Barney, there like that from watching crossed orders.

Ebb n flow, high n low tide, wax n wane...
My standing buy succeeded today.
Beer money? Hahaha...ahahaha 
Married with children... coffee money maybe.



barney said:


> although I do look pretty spiffy in a suit!



How much was suit hire fees in the 80's ? 

Cheers for the clarity. 
Or is that the claret tea?...hiccup, burp.


----------



## barney (30 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Look into my crossed eyes Barney, there like that from watching crossed orders.




Indeed ....  Not fussed on the current price action. I think we will see 025 during the next week unless we get some positive news.  I wouldn't mind if the Chi-X boyz took a couple of weeks off as well 



frugal.rock said:


> Beer money? Hah Married with children... coffee money maybe.




I comprehendo fully. I am also married, and also have children (in various parts of the country)

But they are all happy to leave me alone in my cave now days for some reason. (sometimes for days!)




frugal.rock said:


> How much was suit hire fees in the 80's ?




You are a cheeky basket!! 

And may I say, I have never hired a suit in my life.   I purchased my first suit in about 1982 and my second suit in about 2016.  You may have noticed I get a few years out of a suit !!

Perhaps I should be called "Frugal"




frugal.rock said:


> Cheers for the clarity. Or is that the claret tea?...hiccup, burp.




Cheeky basket (number 2)

If you are insinuating I am drinking on the job, you are an insolent young(er) whipper snapper.

As for Claret ... isn't that what you clean stains out of coffee cups with?!   Sorry, my mistake, that is bi-carb soda ... and I believe a good bi-carb may taste better than a bad claret (apologies wine connoisseurs)

Bourbon and Pepsi-max for me thankyou, and go easy on the Pepsi ... its bad for your health!

ps. I am off to cook my wife dinner  ... I hope you are reciprocating with your lovely wife?!

Sheppard's pie .....

pps. No sheep will be harmed in the making of said pie, but I cannot guarantee the safety of cows (apologies to vegetarians)

ppps.  I love Fridays !!!


----------



## barney (30 October 2020)

Picked VML again in the monthly comp so posting to confirm my selection. Not much more to say than the above.  It has great potential if the ducks align over the next 12-24 months.

Lets hope those ducks know how to fly straight!🦆🦆🦆 (This way you idiots!!)🐌🐌🐌


----------



## aus_trader (31 October 2020)

I think this one is a long shot. I can't trade it but I do believe in Rare Earths having a future. In fact I have a current trading position in one Rare Earth play already in *Speculative Stock Portfolio*.

Since the price has had a decline today I purchased a minimum parcel (half a grand) of VML shares for the long haul. Could have bought some for half price of what I paid today if I acted when barnz (The ASF one above 👏, not Arnzy, Barnzy, Farnzy in Uber Eat Ad  ) first alerted me about this Rare Earth play. But I was doing my own Rare Earth refresher re-search as my previous notes were tardy and that was done back in the days when Lynas was a minnow 

Anyway shoulda, coulda, woulda doesn't help, so I thought buy while the price has come down today (on sale eh ). I like the fact VML has the experience of ex-Lynas management.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 November 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Since the price has had a decline today I purchased



another bucket load....

If it all goes pear shaped, I will be travelling past Barney's house everyday for 6 months for a free BBQ...
(just joking Barney... would probably be 6 years with the amount I now hold... lol )


----------



## aus_trader (2 November 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> another bucket load....



Yeah, can't predict in the short term, I thought the dumping was done when I purchased.

Most stocks are down today (especially small caps) from what I can see despite the index XAO showing a small gain.


----------



## barney (2 November 2020)

barney said:


> Not fussed on the current price action. I think we will see 025 during the next week unless we get some positive news.




Well that was a bit quicker than I'd hoped for .. 025 with interest, testing 022 today.

022 is an important support level at the moment.  Still a bit of water to flow under the bridge before they get things up and running so retracements were always going to happen.

Its always been an accumulation trade for me, so I'll ride the dips.  I'm more interested in how it looks in around 12-24 months, but down days are always painful.

I see that REE is down 16% and PM8 is down almost 7% today ..... Been a poor month for a few R/E stocks after their big rises.

ps @frugal.rock   Possible there might be a couple of small pears along the way, but I'm expecting it to grow into a big fat watermelon🍉

pps  No problem with the BBQ, but 6 years, whoa ! ..... A man can only eat so many rissoles


----------



## frugal.rock (4 November 2020)

rnr said:


> View attachment 114172
> 
> 
> A good example of Bullish Divergence if it keeps playing out with price moving in an upward path!
> ...



Good one Rob.


----------



## frugal.rock (4 November 2020)

@rnr called it.


----------



## barney (26 November 2020)

Moving again today of the back of the AGM Presentation AGM Pres

Touched 036 briefly but plenty of Supply dropping in around the 034-036 level  ... To be expected. 

Needs to breach the 036 level with gusto before any real fireworks happen .... Sitting patiently


----------



## barney (5 December 2020)

VML has had a good move recently but is getting some Selling resistance at current levels which is to be expected.

I thought Thursday showed some fresh buying pressure and bought a handful more, but I may have been fooled given Fridays reverse push/selling from 038-035.

So potential short term holding pattern/possible retrace unless the traders get involved again or news.

Medium term I think the 4 cent area will eventually get broken but the Xmas -New Year period is a bit of a lottery. 

035 and above happy holder.  Under 033 ... Not so good 

PS Hourly Chart.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 December 2020)

In a trading Halt..... news, not thirsty for capital, maybe

UPDATE


> pending an announcement regarding a material offtake agreement.


----------



## over9k (17 December 2020)

I've been biting my nails on this one for a while. It seems to be on trend still... just.


----------



## barney (17 December 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> In a trading Halt..... news, not thirsty for capital, maybe UPDATE






over9k said:


> I've been biting my nails on this one for a while. It seems to be on trend still... just.




No need to worry with these chaps  . Possibly one of the safest Spec bets on the ASX.  If it had continued to drop, i was going to buy more and I already have enough to fill a swimming pool lol.

They will need a little more capital not too far down the track as well but after this announcement I'll be surprised if we don't hit the magic 4 cent level ... maybe higher.

*Announcement on a Material Off-take agreement*.   Getting a decent Offtake deal at this stage well before proof of production numbers etc is a massive vote of confidence in the Company ..... My bet is the Canadians will stick like glue to these ex-Lynas lads who know exactly what they are trying to do. 

Still early days as well.  2 -4 years from now this could turn into something way bigger.


----------



## over9k (17 December 2020)

Here's the chart for anyone interested:






The trend looks ok, it's just very choppy. I'm cautiously optimistic, but emphasis on the cautiously. I'm holding but not buying any more.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 December 2020)

I happened to buy more only yesterday afternoon, doubling my holding in fact. 
My fingers are crossed that my purchase yesterday falls within the record date used for any offtake entitlement.
A big bowl of wait and see now, unless anyone has experience with record dates and offtake dates?

(I guess I could look at Alkanes announcements and see what they did for ASM takeoff ? )


----------



## over9k (17 December 2020)

Mm it's broken trend once before though. I was a bit concerned at the time. 

If it keeps pulling from here (even if it breaks trend & then rebounds) then we can be much more confident.


----------



## barney (17 December 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I happened to buy more only yesterday afternoon, doubling my holding in fact.
> My fingers are crossed that my purchase yesterday falls within the record date used for any offtake entitlement.




Great timing Rock ... You sure you're not a muso?  

The Offtake is just an agreement for supply of  the ore they intend to produce so any gain for all of us holders is simply the SP increasing so you are on board.

My guess is the Canadian Government (Saskatchewan Research Council) who will stump up $31 million towards a production plant will be front and centre with any negotiations on Offtake with VML.

VML have said previously they were in negotiation with "several" potential customers so this is just the first one ... 

Also just my guess, that the SRC will want to secure as much meat from the eventual sandwich as possible so I wont be surprised to see a very positive "term sheet" announced.

Bearing in mind that whatever numbers are thrown up, this early stage and VML will be ramping up their production profile to as high as possible once the "Demonstration Phase" has been proven.

If they throw up any serious offtake numbers at this early demonstration stage, it will be a massive vote of confidence by both parties and super bullish. (All in my view of course ... lets see how Monday goes)


----------



## frugal.rock (17 December 2020)

barney said:


> The Offtake is just an agreement for supply of the ore they intend to produce so any gain for all of us holders is simply the SP increasing so you are on board.



Cheers Barney.
As you can see, not really following the FA on this, that's where I am trusting your judgement without any obligation. TA had me buying this yesterday and selling Bannerman today to cover it.


----------



## barney (17 December 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Cheers Barney.  As you can see, not really following the FA on this, that's where I am trusting your judgement without any obligation. TA had me buying this yesterday and selling Bannerman today to cover it.




Forgot to watch what BMN had been up to ..... Hooly Dooly, nice move.

In my view Rock, you just made a great trade.  Sold Bannerman right near the top of a long spike, and bought VML which I suspect should move at least 20-25% on the Open Monday. I'm hoping for a little more than that to be honest but I am realistic about the fickle Spec end of play. 

In a perfect world it will run 50% and close above 4.5 cents so I can afford more Xmas presents ... We shall see.

I appreciate you are trusting my judgement on the fundamentals  I know you buy and sell off technicals so lets hope we're both correct!


----------



## barney (18 December 2020)

barney said:


> I'll be surprised if we don't hit the magic 4 cent level. Still early days as well.  2 -4 years from now this could turn into something way bigger.






barney said:


> In my view Rock, you just made a great trade...  In a perfect world it will run 50% and close above 4.5 cents so I can afford more Xmas presents ...




Hey @frugal.rock and any other VML holders.  Just to keep myself calm on a Friday arv i have to consider the possibilities of VML's first Offtake announcement for Monday's Open.

The Company described it as a material announcement. These guys don't over exaggerate so I expect some positive numbers.  

Given this O/take deal is well before they have demonstrated the Ore sorter capabilities, there will no doubt be a few caveats of possible, potential and perceived future Production numbers before any final and meaningful figures can be fully determined a year or so from now.

However, Monday's Ann will give us a snapshot of how confident the SRC or whoever the deal is with, are with VML predictions and production forecasts.  Given we are run by experienced Rare Earths lads, I am hoping that Monday sets a solid platform for what I see as a potential multi year Company expansion, and all things going to plan, a healthy and rising Share Price

PS. "Rock" .... My earlier suggestion that your immediate trade was a good one by selling BMN to buy more VML is shaping up ok on the market depth ... plus we have the whole weekend for Punters to muse over the situation. 

We all live in hope! Lol ... (me)  (Rock) (hopefully a few others)


----------



## barney (21 December 2020)

barney said:


> We all live in hope!




How's that saying go?  Hope dies last!  Lol .....  

Anyway the Offtake announcement was positive as expected but with almost 12 months before first Production it's understandable that the price action was fizzy at best.   Bit like some of those cheap sky-rockets I used to get on cracker night

Almost 70 million shares churned mainly around the 032-033 mark today so plenty of Sellers and Buyers (hopefully accumulators)

Groundhog day for the moment.


----------



## over9k (22 December 2020)

Big dip today. How you feeling barney?


----------



## Austwide (22 December 2020)

One of the Board resigned Mr Coulson. Hope that's not a management problem festering.


----------



## barney (22 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Big dip today. How you feeling barney?




Lying if I said I'm enjoying it O9   lol ...

There would still be a lot of Traders sitting on profits after the recent runs up, plus we still have a lot of Punters who bought higher and could be feeling a few nervous twinges.

My last few shares I bought are under water but I bought a lot at lower prices so at this stage I'm sitting tight.

The weekly chart is not abnormal but I'd like to see the SP stay above 029 cents and the daily Volume have a breather before we hit the Xmas break.

Not too concerned as long as it doesnt do anything nasty. 



Austwide said:


> One of the Board resigned Mr Coulson. Hope that's not a management problem festering.




Nah all good Aus, Phil Coulson is a major shareholder and an entrepreneur, not a mining dude. His reason for stepping aside is totally acceptable. There are better people to get the next stage under way than him.  If he starts selling on market, that might signal something different of course. Personally don't expect to see that until the SP is much higher than current. 

Weekly Chart musings.


----------



## frugal.rock (22 December 2020)

barney said:


> Phil Coulson is a major shareholder and an entrepreneur, not a mining dude.



Had the same thoughts based on his previous roles in broking firms. 
Not sure what he was doing for the 6 years or so before Vital though.

Not worried about the current drawdown considering the speed with which it rose.


----------



## over9k (23 December 2020)

It broke trend before and then went right back to it. I'm currently breakeven if I sell now. Below 027 and it's time to get nervous.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 December 2020)

0.029 is its current price by volume average for last 6 months.
Around 0.031 for last 3 months.
Around 0.035 for last month.



over9k said:


> It broke trend before and then went right back to it. I'm currently breakeven if I sell now. Below 027 and it's time to get nervous.




There's a good chance it will test 0.025 again... if it does, I would expect it to find decent support, touch n go style, as it would be stretching the band on the bottom end.


----------



## over9k (23 December 2020)

Thanks rock. I hadn't thought of the pva. The other one I'm itching to pull the trigger on is LTR. I'm hoping to get some in the usual slump between xmas & new year when the yanks sell everything off to realise their losses in that tax year.


----------



## barney (23 December 2020)

Follow up on Phil Coulson ...... He bought another 5 million shares two days ago for a lazy $160,000

He now owns over 200 million shares and +7% of the Company. Fair vote of confidence.

SP could go either way in the short term. Once we get through Xmas New Year I think it will stabilize nicely. 

If it hold 029-030 till then all is well.


----------



## Austwide (23 December 2020)

Was tempted to sell when it broke trend at 0.034 last week, but only a week now for 12 month holding and reduced CGT.


----------



## barney (11 January 2021)

VML is still my major holding going into 2021.    Had a positive price/volume day today.  Lots of ebbing and flowing to happen here for a while but the SP is trickling higher at the moment.


----------



## rnr (11 January 2021)

barney said:


> VML is still my major holding going into 2021.    Had a positive price/volume day today.  Lots of ebbing and flowing to happen here for a while but the SP is trickling higher at the moment.
> 
> View attachment 118173




Hi @barney,

Below is just my take from an EW perspective with both the end of wave 3 or wave c (whatever the wave count turns out to be) at greater than 0.043.
This would appear to line up with your chart.

Cheers, Rob


----------



## barney (11 January 2021)

rnr said:


> Hi @barney,
> 
> Below is just my take from an EW perspective with both the end of wave 3 or wave c (whatever the wave count turns out to be) at greater than 0.043. This would appear to line up with your chart. Cheers, Rob





Yeah, Thanks Rob. 

I don't use "Elliott" as such, but I would say, that the concept of Elliot waves makes way more sense with Stocks that actually have "something to offer" in at least the medium term. 

Spec Stocks are possibly less reliable with "Elliott" simply because their fundamentals are "less reliable" in the short/medium term!?

However, with that in mind, the fact that VML is starting to exhibit traditional "Elliott" principles is actually another positive for the Stock in my view.

Of course, I may simply be biased given I hold a truckload of the Stock, lol ...


----------



## barney (12 January 2021)

barney said:


> Lots of ebbing and flowing to happen here for a while but the SP is trickling higher at the moment.




Got a bit keen today when this got bumped up to 036 at one point. Almost rushed out to buy some scotch fillet. 

The Volume was not positive however and the Lads with deep pockets have slammed the breaks on hard this arv.

Not super keen on the current price action but hopefully its just a bit of a shakeout and 033 regains its momentum into the Close.

Certainly some trading going on around the 033 right at the moment 🧐


----------



## over9k (12 January 2021)

Yeah I noticed the other day that it likes 033. 

That's green for me, but not by much.


----------



## barney (12 January 2021)

over9k said:


> Yeah I noticed the other day that it likes 033.
> 
> That's green for me, but not by much.




She'll be right O9 

Little bit of a mini shake-out to test the strength of the level by the looks. 

Volume is back in at 033 (again) ... Until further news, this could be the pattern of play. Still positive (imo)


----------



## over9k (12 January 2021)

halfway tempted to torch it and stick the money in greener pastures tbh. meandering stocks annoy me no end. 

opportunity cost & all that.


----------



## barney (12 January 2021)

over9k said:


> halfway tempted to torch it and stick the money in greener pastures tbh.
> opportunity cost & all that.




Yeah I understand that.   The 033 level has been a sticky one.  I think its not too far from breaking that level but unless you are holding plenty, the 001 increments can seem a bit painful I guess.

I'm in for the longer haul so happy to watch if it's being accumulated. 

Cheers and good luck whatever you decide.


----------



## over9k (13 January 2021)

And it's pulled to 035 today. Haven't sold... yet.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 January 2021)

over9k said:


> And it's pulled to 035 today. Haven't sold... yet.



In the wise words of Pooh....


----------



## barney (14 January 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> In the wise words of Pooh....




I never realised the Pooh was so clever Rock 


My take on the current price action:  (Assuming no News) 

VML closed at 033 today but the VWAP was actually close to *0342  *

The low Volume tick down on the Close after most Trading was done a tick higher all day is a Bullish indicator till proven otherwise.

Volume is still only modest and looks like Accumulation is continuing at the 033-034 level.

Only a few days ago the Accumulation Range was the 030-032 level, so we appear to be slowly ticking higher.

All in all, short term Neutral with a positive slant in my view. 


The Chart is messy but makes sense if you close both eyes and hum Amazing Grace

*PS  The CHART is a 1 HOUR chart from 21st December 2020 - 13th January 2021*


----------



## over9k (15 January 2021)

Jeez, I should have threatened to sell this off weeks ago, it's up to 038 today.


----------



## over9k (15 January 2021)

Alright stock market gods, I'm planning on liquidating my entire portfolio within the next few days. 



(I now anticipate massive market gains right across the board once they read this)


----------



## frugal.rock (15 January 2021)

over9k said:


> Jeez, I should have threatened to sell this off weeks ago, it's up to 038 today.



Some more Pooh wisdom for you...


----------



## barney (15 January 2021)

over9k said:


> Alright stock market gods, I'm planning on liquidating my entire portfolio within the next few days.   (I now anticipate massive market gains right across the board once they read this)




Lol.  If only it worked that way  

Just home from doing some real work to see the nice little jump across a few of the Rare Earths Stocks.  

Given the Spec appetite at the moment, I thought another push was almost overdue.

VML   +11% 
NTU   +15%  Resource Announcement pending (TH)
PM8   Modest 2.5%
REE   Up a massive 21%

Today's VWAP on VML was a little over 036 cents so  maybe a bit more Rotation is due between 035-038 for a few days. 

Anything better than that and I'll be almost as happy as this little fella


----------



## over9k (15 January 2021)

To be fair, all three of those have done nothing but melt for months since their initial bounce:






At least VML has some kind of trend:






If I still held the other three like you appear to, I'd be selling.


----------



## barney (15 January 2021)

over9k said:


> To be fair, all three of those have done nothing but melt for months since their initial bounce:
> If I still held the other three like you appear to, I'd be selling.




Only hold *VML *@over9k  

And may I say, plenty of them, so my nerves can easily be tested, lol 

I watch a few other R/E Stocks for reference. 

*REE* overshot on it's original October spike, but looks ready to play catchup now.

*NTU* has been on a steady rise since last July

*PM8* has been the best performer chart wise and is very popular with Punters.


*VML* SP will no doubt rotate as Specs do, but the ex-Lynas factor is a big thing for me. 

These guys appear to be about creating resource value without the massive up front expense. 

ie. Creating value without too much dilution to Shareholders.

This is a big punt for me, but at this stage I'm happy to back the boys at the helm into 2021 and beyond until proven otherwise.🧐


----------



## over9k (15 January 2021)

Tell me your thinking, if I like what I hear I'll buy some more and then we can both go bankrupt together.


----------



## frugal.rock (15 January 2021)

over9k said:


> If I still held the other three like you appear to, I'd be selling.



A sideshow quickie, nothing special.







I only sold as I couldn't watch it any more. Literally. It is school holidays and had things to do. 
At the end of the day, I wished I held. Wait for Tuesday and I will berate myself....


----------



## over9k (15 January 2021)

Weak hands are green hands.


----------



## barney (16 January 2021)

over9k said:


> Tell me your thinking, if I like what I hear I'll buy some more and then we can both go bankrupt together.




My thinking (perhaps ramblings) have been well documented from page 1 of the Thread O9.  My posts probably take up half the Thread, lol. VML should pay me for advertising!

Would I be buying now?  No.   

My last purchase was at 029.  I still think it will go higher in the medium term, but with just under $100 million market cap, it looks about true value at this stage based on potential.

Trading Range 035-038 looks likely for a while. Anything better is a bonus.


----------



## rnr (16 January 2021)

barney said:


> My thinking (perhaps ramblings) have been well documented from page 1 of the Thread O9.  My posts probably take up half the Thread, lol. VML should pay me for advertising!
> 
> Would I be buying now?  No.
> 
> ...








Hi @barney,

The above chart is my take on a potential wave count for VML which may be of interest (obviously no guarantee on the accuracy).

Cheers, Rob


----------



## barney (16 January 2021)

rnr said:


> Count for VML which may be of interest (obviously no guarantee on the accuracy).
> Cheers, Rob




Cheers Rob. I have no doubt we have more upside over the medium term so definitely in agreeance with your projection.

Personally, I wouldn't tell my Mum and Dad to go in boots and all right at this point in time,

However, it's still a solid accumulation trade in my book as long as a sensible time frame is factored in.


----------



## over9k (17 January 2021)

barney said:


> My thinking (perhaps ramblings) have been well documented from page 1 of the Thread O9.  My posts probably take up half the Thread, lol. VML should pay me for advertising!
> 
> Would I be buying now?  No.
> 
> ...



Sell order at 040 then?


----------



## frugal.rock (17 January 2021)

rnr said:


> The above chart is my take on a potential wave count for VML which may be of interest (obviously no guarantee on the accuracy).



I have similar opinions on the heading of VML based off other methods though.
My thoughts are it may hit the question mark area in your chart in this next week of trading, after it gets past @over9k selling at 0.040


----------



## frugal.rock (17 January 2021)

A chart borrowed from @tech/a in Breakouts thread. 


tech/a said:


>


----------



## over9k (18 January 2021)

Cracked 040 today, lots of sellers at that level (along with me now as my sell order is in) but the buyers seem to like 038 (lots of buyers at that level).

There's a few buyers at 039 so we'll see if they crack.

Edit: Number of sellers at 040 and buyers at 039 are both increasing. Encouraging sign.


----------



## frugal.rock (18 January 2021)

Now that 09k has sold on 0.040, the price can move forward...according to the long pockets brigade.


----------



## over9k (18 January 2021)

Well it hasn't actually executed yet. There's 9 million others in front of me last I checked.

Edit: Now it has. We're up to 041.


----------



## over9k (18 January 2021)

Yeah so I wasn't lying when I said it'd run after I sold, was I?


----------



## over9k (18 January 2021)

Jokes aside, it does actually look like a bit of a range has developed:






I might put a cheeky buy order in at 033 and just see. I haven't had a good degenerate trade in a while >_>


----------



## over9k (18 January 2021)

And it just cracked a single trade at 042 before an immediate pullback:







I am thoroughly convinced that I am god's own personal entertainment human.


----------



## over9k (18 January 2021)

16% just on the day. You all owe me a drink.


----------



## barney (18 January 2021)

rnr said:


> View attachment 118542
> 
> Cheers, Rob




Well done Rob and @tech/a  .... Both close to the money on the price movement.

I expected another week of Rotation without any news catalyst but happy to be incorrect on that one.

Some strong buying today. Be interesting to see if it keeps gaining momentum. Perhaps the mandatory inside day tomorrow?  

I think that gives us around a $115-120 million Market Cap now. Short term that seems fair ....  Longer term,  I still see it doubling from here based on the potential of their resource .... Holding tight for now


----------



## barney (20 January 2021)

barney said:


> Perhaps the mandatory *inside day* tomorrow?





That was the case, plus today also drifting a point or 2 lower today.   Fairly typical Spec behaviour.

*NTU* (rare earths) taking the limelight today with a big rise ... probably no one left to trade *VML*  lol ..... 

Hourly Chart paints a clear short term picture.

Support at 040      Needs to break above 045 before any more fun and games.

I suspect the Rotation I was expecting earlier might still be on the cards.


----------



## frugal.rock (20 January 2021)

barney said:


> I suspect the Rotation I was expecting earlier might still be on the cards.



Jog my memory Barney?
Cheers.


----------



## barney (20 January 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Jog my memory Barney?
> Cheers.




I wasn't expecting such a quick break of the 040 level Rock.

Now that it has broken, and we've have had the mandatory 2 inside days, I won't be surprised to see it go back into a trading range/rotation .... Hopefully no lower than 040   and ideally up to 044 and an eventual break of 045

All still positive price action if that happens.  I'm happy with the slow boat to China approach with this one


----------



## frugal.rock (20 January 2021)

barney said:


> I wasn't expecting such a quick break of the 040 level Rock.








I was, small portion of holding relinquished (still holding 300k). Expectation was Monday or Tuesday.
My take was; wave lengths are shortening, the tides are getting bigger etc.
The bigger pop is just a matter of a bit of patience, in my opinion...
@tech/a has a potential target of $0.06 in his chart.
I would be surprised if we don't see that target hit, or close to it, by the end of next week.
Just my 
If there's no script, there's no play, right?
Cheers.


----------



## barney (20 January 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I would be surprised if we don't see that target hit, or close to it, by the end of next week.
> Just my
> If there's no script, there's no play, right?
> Cheers.




I like your script!  

I prefer to remain conservative at this stage but I wont knock back 6 cents if it happens quicker than I expect.  

My longer term "script" for VML is to achieve a $300 million Market Cap which is definitely a possibility given their potential .

A $300 mil MC will have their share price at about 10 cents  Thats when the fun would really start for this old fella

a) Hopefully that happens ... and 

b) Hopefully it happens before I'm too old to party, lol.


----------



## aus_trader (20 January 2021)

barney said:


> I like your script!
> 
> I prefer to remain conservative at this stage but I wont knock back 6 cents if it happens quicker than I expect.
> 
> ...



Enjoying the ride, although my stake is small. If it hits the targets, it'll pay off the bills and still leave a bit for a nice red wine (not really into beer). Cheers Barnz  🍷


----------



## barney (21 January 2021)

aus_trader said:


> If it hits the targets, it'll pay off the bills and still leave a bit for a nice red wine




If it reaches my targets (10 cents), I may be able to actually retire!   (I don't have any superannuation! Sad but true)

And I will happily shout you a nice bottle of Red Aus

Anyway, dreaming aside, my "short term" outlook on an Hourly Chart. 

Todays price action was surprisingly "nibbly" at the 046 level. 

Lots of Chi-X boys on the job I note🧐

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## over9k (25 January 2021)

I swear to god...


----------



## barney (25 January 2021)

Plenty of Profit takers slipped in after the Open.  Traded as low as 047 

The rise was starting to look a bit exponential unfortunately.

Looks like around 100 million shares will be traded today hopefully todays level doesnt get squeezed too hard or it could be retracement time.

As I type, the squeeze has started ... down to 046 😖


----------



## over9k (25 January 2021)

Yeah it's still in the watch list. Hoping to get a cheeky buy back in below 040.


----------



## barney (27 January 2021)

Interesting price action so far again today. Having another bo peep at the *054-055*  level

Might throw a chart up later but eyeballing says a definitive low is in at *049* with another strong low at *051*  A lot of Volume changing hands today at higher than that so we might see a new base with a bit of luck.

A close at* 052* at the moment would be fine for this old fella  ..

Any higher could be a bit wobblier but if *055* gets taken today, all bets are off. 


ps. Just after I posted the above, the Sellers jumped in and pushed it from 055 to 051 ... To be expected but as long as 051 holds, it is behaving ok.


----------



## over9k (27 January 2021)

mm that's way above trend though.


----------



## aus_trader (27 January 2021)

whoa.. barnz !






How come you haven't got no super @barney , if you don't mind me asking ? It is a bit sad to hear mate 

I withdrew a bit to keep me alive during the Vic lockdown, but still got a some left for an emergency if needed...


----------



## barney (27 January 2021)

aus_trader said:


> whoa.. barnz !
> How come you haven't got no super @barney , if you don't mind me asking ? It is a bit sad to hear mate




@aus_trader 

Just kinda happened Auz, and it's not so bad. 

I don't know if Super even existed when I was a young fella but I've basically worked for myself for the last 40 years and there has always been bills to pay so Super didn't get a look in.   The journey has been interesting either way though so no complaints

Anyway, re VML  ....... It is obviously on "Trader's" radars now, so there will likely be more volatility to deal with in both directions.

At the moment it's had a real purple patch but Spec land is built on soft ground as we all know, so I have a realistic view of what could happen if things don't go to plan, but so far so good.  

The boys at the helm seem to have things under control but there is a lot of water to flow under the VML bridge yet.


----------



## barney (28 January 2021)

over9k said:


> mm that's way above trend though.



The Market agrees with you O9     Most recent support before this morning is 046 

At the moment 047-048 is holding. As long as it holds, that is still tidy. See how it pans out


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 January 2021)

Nothing really new in this outline, but it's good for VML to get some love 









						Beating the path down to become a "Vital" rare earths producer in 2021
					

Vital Metals Ltd. (ASX: VML) targeting to be the largest independent supplier of clean mixed rare earth feedstock outside of […]




					investorintel.com


----------



## barney (30 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Nothing really new in this outline, but it's good for VML to get some love
> 
> 
> 
> ...




It is a compelling story @Dona Ferentes so thanks for the update/reference.

Its still very early days for this little minnow. Their current Market Cap is probably reflective of their "short term" potential, but the real value, assuming they deliver on their projections, will likely become evident in around 12-48 months. 

Management openly stated they intend to become the next "Lynas". Given their past association with LYC, I take that kind of statement seriously and have invested accordingly, and happily hold for the mid/longer term ride!


----------



## frugal.rock (1 February 2021)

over9k said:


> Hoping to get a cheeky buy back in below 040.



Did you take advantage of the opportunity this morning?
I bought the dip, settled with $0.04 for another position.
Still holding original parcel minus a bit also.


----------



## over9k (1 February 2021)

Nah, I've been focused on/buying the dips in everywhere else. It totally slipped my mind. Should've put a lowball order in just in case it'd fill.


I suspect we'll have quite a few more cheeky day trade opportunities until this gamestop etc stuff is over though. It bottomed out at 039 today so I'll put an order in there and see if it fills.

edit: order's in, let's see if it fills in an afternoon selloff.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 February 2021)

Definitive take off


----------



## barney (2 February 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Definitive take off




They have a definitive Offtake agreement now as previously agreed but now signed and sealed.

Nice to see some numbers thrown up.    My maths may be incorrect but it looks like the Gross on 1000t per year is around $42 million

Not sure of the cost to produce or the REEtec % of that aspect of the agreement, but once they increase production to the proposed 5000t per annum, the numbers could start to look fairly attractive.

Looks like a few Punters have taken the opportunity to cash in their chips off the back of the Announcement.  I'm happy with that to be honest. Clearing the register of Profit takers and Traders lets us set a more solid base.

Production expected to commence before the end of this year. All ticking along nicely.


----------



## over9k (2 February 2021)

Too early to tell. Our floor from before looks like 041, but it already broke than & then rebounded. There's also an obvious downtrend from the peak of 054. Where it'll settle is hard to know as the last week has been a writeoff for everything on account of all the gamestop lunacy etc.


----------



## aus_trader (2 February 2021)

OK guys, I topped up...


----------



## over9k (2 February 2021)

What's your reasoning for a buy now?


----------



## aus_trader (2 February 2021)

Same reasons Barney has been telling us in the past, like top management who ran Lynas which is the biggest Rare Earth producer in the country, good grounds where the deposit is located and offtake agreement in place etc. etc.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 February 2021)

aus_trader said:


> OK guys, I topped up...
> 
> View attachment 119460



That's not a top up, this is a top up....
400,000 of em yesty @0.040


----------



## aus_trader (2 February 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> That's not a top up, this is a top up....
> 400,000 of em yesty @0.040



See what I mean @over9k ? 

My purchase is a drop in the ocean


----------



## frugal.rock (3 February 2021)

Am wondering what the cycle and wave gurus are thinking of as a technical analysis for Vital for the near future ?

It certainly has picked up in volume and momentum from around the middle of Jan which must change the ratings somewhat....?
Am expecting a proper breakout soon enough...


----------



## barney (3 February 2021)

Not sure about the "Waves" but I was looking at the 1 minute Chart earlier Rock @frugal.rock 

I had 045 pegged as a fairly established *short term* point of support.

Today has been a bit of surprise with some big chunks taken at 046  and just on a 1 million BUY went through a few minutes ago at 048

A close at 048 on Volume would be very well accepted thank you kindly, lol


----------



## over9k (3 February 2021)

There's just been too much chop through all this gamestop BS etc to have any idea of trend yet. I should like to think that the friday selloff will be telling, as there's always those speculative stocks that go first if the markets get even the slightest jitters and this is definitely one of them.

The one positive sign is the volume - there's definitely a lot of interest in this now. 


If any of you guys want to take out a short position, I'll put a buy order in at market price for you so you can be sure of your bet.


----------



## over9k (9 February 2021)

Alright, it just cracked the 20 EMA and I now have a buy order in for 037:






So expect it to bounce tomorrow.


----------



## frugal.rock (9 February 2021)

over9k said:


> So expect it to bounce tomorrow.



From the retracing price action over the last few days, am expecting it to move again today, just not expecting a downward move. 
Will be watching and will be happy to top up again around  $0.043 after having lightened the load after recent highs...
From its recent ranging, I am still expecting a breakout. 
A recent intraday high was a ~20% move


----------



## over9k (9 February 2021)

Yeah exactly. I'd get a few cheeky day trades in if it could develop a range or something.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Alright looks like we've finally settled in and done so at the previous level before all the carryon a fortnight ago (how surprising). 

The question from here is working out what will be the next bit of news to kick the volatility off again.


----------



## rnr (10 February 2021)

Same as before in that the above chart is just my take on a potential wave count for VML which may be of interest (obviously still no guarantee on the accuracy).
Cheers, Rob


----------



## barney (10 February 2021)

rnr said:


> Same as before in that the above chart is just my take on a potential wave count for VML which may be of interest  Cheers, Rob



I hope you are right again as you were last time Rob


----------



## frugal.rock (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> The question from here is working out what will be the next bit of news to kick the volatility off again.



If I'm not mistaken, the tree has been well shook.
Anticipating what Rob said, on lowish volume, less ranging, a steadier more sustainable pace building up to a catalyst that breaks up to 10 cent area.
Just my


----------



## barney (13 February 2021)

barney said:


> I suspect the Rotation I was expecting earlier might still be on the cards.




My Post about 3 weeks ago has finally come to light, unfortunately.

Not exactly loving the recent price action, but the Buying demand has dropped off so the Sellers and Profit takers have dragged the price down ..... (Can't fight Gravity!⛷️)

Anyway, the current Market Depth indicates support at 039 and the Chart says support at 038

Longer term, I don't see 038 as a problem, but I'd like to see some Buyers surface at these levels and push the SP back over low 40's at least.

First Chart is from 20th January:

Second Chart is 13th February (Hourly)


* 20th January 2021*




barney said:


> View attachment 118716





*13th February 2021*


----------



## over9k (13 February 2021)

My order's in at 037.


----------



## barney (16 February 2021)

Positive Announcement from Jeff Atkins and the boys at VML today detailing the Stage 2 plan for the Project.  Drilling to start to upgrade the resource for an initial 10 years as previously indicated.

SP has not moved but probably be another 20 million shares digested today.  I wont be surprised to see the Volume bump up towards the end of the day. 

There are a lot of options/performance shares that need to filter into the register in the medium term, but I'm happy if Jeff and Co become filthy rich given they have aligned their potential wealth to performance of the Company.

Once Stage 1 Production is proven by the end of this year, and the Stage 2 figures are signed off on by ReeTec, 4 cents will be a distant memory I expect.  Of course I am wearing my rose coloured glasses, but they are prescription lenses  

Boardroom Media Interview with Jeff Atkins re todays Announcement

ASX Annoucement


----------



## sptrawler (16 February 2021)

@barney watch the price crash now, I'm in. 😂


----------



## barney (16 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> @barney watch the price crash now, I'm in. 😂





Lol ........ Thanks Homer


----------



## frugal.rock (16 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> @barney watch the price crash now, I'm in. 😂



Ho hum, that means it must be time to buy Mincor again as well...

Nickel for a tickle?


----------



## barney (16 February 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Ho hum, that means it must be time to buy Mincor again as well...
> 
> Nickel for a tickle?



Lol...... MCR at $0.95 cents is a good deal    That is definitely not financial advice!

VML at .040 looks fairly low risk for a medium term trade ... That is also not financial advice


----------



## barney (17 February 2021)

Little bit of positive movement at the station today. Been looking likely for a few days.

Not complaining, but above 048 will have a better feel about it and plenty of work to do to break the recent high around 054-055


----------



## frugal.rock (17 February 2021)

barney said:


> Not complaining, but above 048 will have a better feel about it



Well, you're gonna have to live with 0.047 tonight.
Would've seen 0.048 but to many people want to trade it rather than withdraw supply....
I note lynas had a good day too...


----------



## barney (22 February 2021)

Ticking away nicely.

*VITAL SIGNS CONTRACT TO COMMENCE MINING AT NECHALACHO IN MARCH 2021 

Full Announcement*


----------



## barney (24 February 2021)

The SP has been in a Ranging pattern lately which is understandable given the recent rise and SOI.

Regardless of what the SP does today, today's Announcement is fantastic.  

These boys know what they are doing and this is just the start. Very exciting times for long term holders   

Part of the Ann:

*HIGHLIGHTS • Vital has produced rare earth carbonate sample which satisfies target impurity levels agreed with REEtec

Full Announcement*


----------



## barney (26 February 2021)

Equipment on site and on the way. Production still on target for Q2 this year according to management.  That will be some kind of record if they deliver on that time frame.

*HIGHLIGHTS*

_• Vital is on track to commence rare earth production at the Nechalacho Project, Canada in Q2 CY21, making Vital the first REE producer in Canada and only the second producer of REE in North America _
_• Ore sorter is currently in storage in Yellowknife, awaiting delivery to the Nechalacho site in March 2021 
• Ore sorter substructure has been delivered to site and awaiting final placement 
• Fabrication of feed hoppers, stackers and conveyors is complete and awaiting transport to Nechalacho _
_• Other equipment and infrastructure including air compressor, receivers and dryer are also ready for transit._
•* Neodymium prices continue to rise trading above US$100/kg


Full Announcement*


----------



## aus_trader (26 February 2021)

One of the only stocks doing OK in a heavily sold day at the markets...


----------



## barney (26 February 2021)

Yeah I have to say Aus (@aus_trader )   I was not expecting today's little flurry.

Most Rare Earths Stocks that I watch are down today except for Lynas and VML.

Hopefully there is some weird cosmic correlation happening with their eventual Market Caps, lol

If it can sneak back above the recent 055 high, it might do a little kangaroo imitation.🦘 

Hopefully followed by an Ostrich imitation🐓 (best I can do)

Still some work to do for that though.


----------



## barney (26 February 2021)

I don't have access to Market Profile data so I sometimes do my own raw interpretation based on the various levels/course of trades during any given day.

I didn't post a couple of days ago, but the 046-048 level was being well supported Volume wise

Todays Trading also threw up some interesting numbers. See below:


Level TradedAmount Traded$0.051​$506,952.00​$0.050​$1,070,000.00​$0.049​$193,661.00​$0.048​$538,510.00​$0.047​$656,022.00​$0.046​$343,680.00​$0.045​$12,375.00​


The 046-048 today was well supported early (yet again); 

Followed by what could almost be considered a jump of the 049 creek. 🥸 

There were more Shares traded in the 050-051 than there were in the whole of 045-049  (Interesting) 

The current price action indicates 046 Should be the line in the sand for the short term.

None of the above determines the SP will immediately rise from here of course, and rotation back to 046 will not surprise.

However, the foundation looks to be being set for the next push higher ( in my view) We shall see over the next week or three


----------



## greggles (28 February 2021)

barney said:


> However, the foundation looks to be being set for the next push higher ( in my view) We shall see over the next week or three




I'm liking the look of VML, and think it will head higher during March. Apparently it's trading at 5.8c on the German exchange.

Demand for rare-earth elements in only going to increase in 2021 and the US is looking to source supply from countries other than China.









						Australia has a key role to play in reducing China’s rare-earths dominance | The Strategist
					

US President Joe Biden has just signed an executive order launching a comprehensive review of America’s critical supply chains for strategically significant products and resources. Among those are rare-earth elements, supplies of which the Biden ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				




It looks and feels bullish at the moment and I'm convinced it will have a good March.


----------



## barney (28 February 2021)

greggles said:


> I'm liking the look of VML, and think it will head higher during March. It looks and feels bullish at the moment and I'm convinced it will have a good March.




I hope you are correct @greggles , lol.

I am hoping that March 2022 might be even more impressive than March 2021

I have a sizeable stake invested in VML. It's an educated "punt" with a longer term view, but Spec-land can be unpredictable of course!


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2021)

R


rederob said:


> My comments are in coloured ink above.
> You need to do much better with the information you present.
> As we are not yet 6 weeks into Biden's Presidency, it's a bit early to know what impact his decisions will have in coming months and years.
> All the hard policy decisions remain undecided, as Biden is adopting a position of review to determine what actions are best.






barney said:


> I hope you are correct @greggles , lol.
> 
> I am hoping that March 2022 might be even more impressive than March 2021
> 
> I have a sizeable stake invested in VML. It's an educated "punt" with a longer term view, but Spec-land can be unpredictable of course!



Just let me know when to bail out barney .lol


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Just let me know when to bail out barney .lol




Will do Homer  

At 10 cents per share they would have a Market Cap of around $300 million.

If everything goes to plan, i think that is a reasonable target for them to achieve in the medium term.

There will be a lot of roller coaster rides on the way of course.

The next level for "punters" however will probably be the 6 cents level (20% rise from last week's close)


----------



## frugal.rock (1 March 2021)

barney said:


> The next level for "punters" however will probably be the 6 cents level (20% rise from last week's close)



Done. Next stop 10c...lol.






Nice timing for the comp @greggles


----------



## frugal.rock (1 March 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Just let me know when to bail out barney .lol



I reckon about April next year...
not advice


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Done. Next stop 10c...lol.




Lol ..... That was quick 🥸 

Its always nice to have the big rising days, but the inevitable rotation will happen.

A close at 058 or above today would be brilliant.


----------



## over9k (1 March 2021)

Hell of a move today. This thing's very choppy. Might be my new day-trade stock. No real range developed though so bit of a lucky dip.


----------



## frugal.rock (1 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Might be my new day-trade stock.



Good luck with that.
Am personally happy to put the feet up and enjoy the ride rather than be a dick for a few ticks....


----------



## over9k (1 March 2021)

Insert "why not both?" meme here.


----------



## over9k (1 March 2021)

Now we see what the pullback is.


----------



## greggles (1 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Done. Next stop 10c...lol.
> 
> View attachment 120757
> 
> ...




I had a feeling VML would fly today based on last week's price action. It has certainly performed well today and I don't think 10c is out of the question by the end of the month if the positive sentiment continues.


----------



## over9k (1 March 2021)

Unless there's some news that I'm not aware of, that seems awfully optimistic just based on the chart?


----------



## aus_trader (1 March 2021)

I am terrible at predicting targets.

So just enjoying the ride with my small stake, with thanks going to banz for bringing this micro spec to our attention


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

Just home from doing some real work to see the afternoon price action.  I've never considered VML a day-trader's stock but the boys have worked it over a bit today.  Profit taking into the Close will be interesting

We are actually into 9 year highs above 061.  Technically blue-sky.  See how it pans out for the rest of the week. 

Definitely not baked beans on toast tonight


----------



## over9k (1 March 2021)

Let's see where it settles - its other spikes pulled back significantly before rebounding again. If it repeats the same pattern we can expect a pullback to 053ish.


----------



## frugal.rock (1 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Let's see where it settles - its other spikes pulled back significantly before rebounding again. If it repeats the same pattern we can expect a pullback to 053ish.



Previous spikes weren't of breakout quality, there's no arguing today was a breakout that finished strongly.

Inside bar tomorrow?

Speeding ticket / please explain just in late.
Hopefully VML responds well before open tomorrow, so the momentum has a chance to continue from open.


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Previous spikes weren't of breakout quality, there's no arguing today was a breakout that finished strongly.
> 
> Inside bar tomorrow?





*Today's Volume Profile is interesting:*



*Price Level**Volume*0.072400,0000.0714,840,7290.0716,704,9230.06920,450,5000.06817,656,3340.06722,496,8970.06615,249,6930.06512,575,7330.06410,057,6970.06311,692,2140.06211,434,8780.06123,933,7630.0612,023,4260.0598,142,7080.05829,541,3560.05713,061,7910.0567,268,3990.0558,710,3810.0543,319,9690.0534,807,4140.0525,934,497


*Daily VWAP of around 0.063*


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

*Price Levels (Range) + Volume*


Price LevelsVolume070-07221,945,652067-06960,603,731064-06637,883,123061-06347,060,855058-06049,707,490052- 05743,102,451


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

Interestingly enough Rock (@frugal.rock )

They have stated the mandatory 2 days to respond to the Price Query (Thursday Open)

Obviously *if* there is "no new news" to announce to the market, they could possibly draft the letter quickly tonight before tomorrows Open.

Personally, I hope they take at least tomorrow to draft it.  The last couple of announcements have been important and even though the news may not be "new", the Company should take the opportunity to promote how positive the recent announcements are to their future plans etc.

If they do happen to re-open tomorrow, I'd like to see the *.065* level hold as support if re-tested. 

There were about* 100 million shares* traded between *.065 and .070  *

It would be nice if they turn out to be strong hands


----------



## frugal.rock (1 March 2021)

If they keep it halted tomorrow, I can see that T2 settlement would be locked in Wednesday, cash required in HFT accounts to pay for today's trades, (for those who have offset facilities... like me).

This scenario may play out with a  stronger follow through, it can have the reverse effect though with a rush to get the cash back out to balance accounts by Friday. Grrr.
Thus my preference to keep the ball rolling tomorrow morning.

Have considered REE trade behaviour, and there's acouple of chart parallels, which I won't comment on.

It should be noted though that today is a record high volume for VML.

REE chart.






VML chart, same time frame.


----------



## barney (1 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> If they keep it halted tomorrow, I can see that T2 settlement would be locked in Wednesday, cash required in HFT accounts to pay for today's trades, (for those who have offset facilities... like me).
> 
> This scenario may play out with a  stronger follow through, it can have the reverse effect though with a rush to get the cash back out to balance accounts by Friday. Grrr.




I'm with you now.   Yeah, I haven't used any offset payments for a while. I remember it did put a fair bit of extra pressure on timing a few years back.

Only trade with what is actually in my account now days.  I had a 6 figure loss with "borrowed" money very early in my trading exploits 

That's not something I'd recommend anyone needs to experience  Still here to tell the story though! lol.

Back to your original question about if it does open tomorrow/inside day?

You'd nearly back an initial tick or two higher on Open, but usually some rotation back into yesterdays Range.

Realistically, if it holds above yesterdays VWAP (0.063) that still OK.

If it holds above the low area of yesterdays last high Volume Range (0.065)  that is better

Above the high of yesterdays last Volume Range where there was still meaningful Volume (0.069-0.070)  Excellent.

Anything substantially higher than yesterdays high would be a surprise, but I wouldn't be complaining


----------



## over9k (2 March 2021)

That's one day though. One day does not a trend make. 

Again, look at its previous pullbacks. The lack of news to send this thing flying has me concerned. So far, the whole thing is completely unexplained.


----------



## barney (2 March 2021)

over9k said:


> The lack of news to send this thing flying has me concerned. So far, the whole thing is completely unexplained.




There has been 5 Price Sensitive Announcements in the last month which I'd say are now priced into the SP after yesterdays flurry.

I expect a pullback over the next 3 weeks.  Might even test the previous Range highs at 055 ..... Still positive though.

I'm hoping to play the "end game" with this one so the weekly/monthly gyrations are part of the process.


----------



## over9k (2 March 2021)

Sure but normally when something runs 25% in a day, well, something sets that off. There's some kind of news, a smoking gun etc etc. There was nothing yesterday, or at least, nothing I'm aware of?


----------



## over9k (2 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> If they keep it halted tomorrow, I can see that T2 settlement would be locked in Wednesday, cash required in HFT accounts to pay for today's trades, (for those who have offset facilities... like me).
> 
> This scenario may play out with a  stronger follow through, it can have the reverse effect though with a rush to get the cash back out to balance accounts by Friday. Grrr.
> Thus my preference to keep the ball rolling tomorrow morning.
> ...



Took the words right out of my mouth. I don't like unexplained movements. I got DEG right (roughly a four bagger) but got stung with REE. Even DEG's been on a melt for quite some time now:






It's even a "mine that has something good in the ground but hasn't started getting it out yet" like VML and yet has broken trend entirely. 

I know they're not the same companies, but the parallels (and what happened with REE) have me a bit worried. I mean I still hold DEG, but you'd have to be kicking yourself if you bought anywhere in the 2nd peak really and we're right into that with VML now.  

DEG's 2nd bounce was instant and on news, VML's seems to be, so far, unexplained.


----------



## aus_trader (2 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Took the words right out of my mouth. I don't like unexplained movements. I got DEG right (roughly a four bagger) but got stung with REE. Even DEG's been on a melt for quite some time now:
> 
> View attachment 120797
> 
> ...



Only thing is DEG is a $1bn+ company even with the recent pull back. VML is still a small cap minnow.


----------



## over9k (2 March 2021)

Mmm, even so, the parallels are concerning. 

Not to say there isn't a punt to have still, but I'd love something more thorough from @barney if he felt so obliged.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 March 2021)

So, it's been trading for 40 minutes today.

Today's trading this far, has stuck nicely to the upper half of yesterday's ranging bar.

It's already traded over 25% of yesterday's volume.

All the very recent good news re-capped in the announcement.


----------



## barney (2 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Mmm, even so, the parallels are concerning.
> 
> Not to say there isn't a punt to have still, but I'd love something more thorough from @barney if he felt so obliged.




No worries @over9k .   I guess it all depends on each punters time frame.  

I'm in for the long haul because I can see the SP reaching +10 cents over the next year or two, so my plan since late 2018 has been to accumulate.  

A lot of the meat has now been chewed from that sandwich. (How's that for a metaphor!! lol🥪 )

@frugal.rock has been trading VML (pretty well I believe ... Well done Rock!)  so short term, he can probably point "traders" in a better direction.

I often give my commentary on the daily swings, but do that mainly to stay in tune with how things are ticking along, fundamentally vs technically.

(see below)




barney said:


> Back to your original question about if it does open tomorrow/inside day?
> 
> You'd nearly back an initial* tick or two higher on Open*, but usually some *rotation back into yesterdays Range.*
> 
> Realistically, if it holds above *yesterdays VWAP (0.063) that still OK*.




Almost following the "standard" pattern to script.

*1)* I assume short term Day Traders left from yesterday will have predominantly cashed in on the first rise today, so we have a lot of punters who are in at higher levels. Usually that could be a reason for concern and lead to *2) *but* 3)* makes it interesting


*2)* Normally after yesterdays high range/high Volume you'd expect to see a trading range develop over the next 2-3 weeks and no surprise to see the SP possibly retrace right back to the last set of highs  (*maybe  055 ish*)

*3)* However, the big* IF/UNKNOWN* with VML at this stage, is we are technically in *Blue-Sky*. That could change all the dynamics.

It could meander for a while, but the Traders know that blue-sky means they can push it higher easier. 

If the Chart starts to show Accumulation (and that is often a subjective view), then that would be a positive signal that there will be another push higher at some point. 

Personally, I don't think the Day Traders will let a blue-sky opportunity get too far from their view, but all the above is just my own opinion and should be eaten with salt, and maybe a little pepper, lol.


----------



## peter2 (2 March 2021)

@barney  What's the business connection between VML and JDR?  I notice they have the same Company Secretary. The latest response to the speeding ticket had a mistaken reference to JDR not VML.


----------



## barney (2 March 2021)

peter2 said:


> @barney  What's the business connection between VML and JDR?  I notice they have the same Company Secretary. The latest response to the speeding ticket had a mistaken reference to JDR not VML.




Yeah well spotted Pete. I read the Announcement and didn't even notice

No connection that I know of other than Louisa Martino is Secretary for both Companies.

JDR had a please explain letter on 24th February, and VML's was yesterday.

Miss Louisa was obviously using her "standard" Form Letter to draft the VML reply, but forgot to change all the Ticker codes ... Oops!!

Maybe she owns a few VML shares and had a late night out celebrating with one too many vinos.


----------



## over9k (2 March 2021)

It wasn't one of those template responses was it?


----------



## aus_trader (2 March 2021)

Any guesses as to how far this pull back will go... ?
I am not talking today, but over the next few days I suppose, if it continues to decline.

If I knew in advance I'd put in a low ball offer to top up just at the turn-around level at the bottom of the pull back


----------



## barney (2 March 2021)

over9k said:


> It wasn't one of those template responses was it?




Nah, Miss Louisa had all the info correct and appropriate to each Company, but forgot to change one of last weeks "JDR" tickers to "VML"

Nothing sinister in it at all, but she might get a ribbing from Luke Martino (her Husband I assume??) who is the  JDR Chairman.


ps @aus_trader   I'll do a rough Volume profile after the close to see where all the money went in today's trades.  So far yesterday's .063 VWAP has been respected which is the first step in forming a new base.


----------



## sptrawler (2 March 2021)

The thing is IMO the USA /China issue isn't going to go away anytime soon, so rare earths are a problem, VML being situated in Canada will work well for the U.S.
From my basic understanding, if VML has a reasonable size resource, that can be mined and processed at a reasonable cost, it really is a no brainer.  

I do hold.


----------



## over9k (2 March 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Any guesses as to how far this pull back will go... ?
> I am not talking today, but over the next few days I suppose, if it continues to decline.
> 
> If I knew in advance I'd put in a low ball offer to top up just at the turn-around level at the bottom of the pull back



Yeah my rebuy missed by 002 on the last one  

I feel like it has more to drop yet. I base this on nothing but gut.


----------



## barney (2 March 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Any guesses as to how far this pull back will go... ?
> I am not talking today, but over the next few days I suppose, if it continues to decline.
> 
> If I knew in advance I'd put in a low ball offer to top up just at the turn-around level at the bottom of the pull back




Todays Volume profile still has the last two days VWAP at around  .063

There was increasing Volume towards the lower levels, but that is where the short term weaker hands would be expected to liquidate today.

See how it pans out over the next couple/few days to see where the money is heading 

A close at .063 or above on tidy Volume tomorrow will be positive. Under .061 not great.

I expect the .062-.063 level should hold for tomorrow at least.



Price LevelVolume Traded0.071​10000.07​100000.069​950000.068​1100000.067​1300000.066​2500000.065​4000000.064​4499280.063​4500000.062​4848880.061​503747


----------



## aus_trader (2 March 2021)

Thanks for all the replies guys, so the pull back is underway and we are trying to tell the future by guessing how far it'll re-trace. Who'll get it right, who'll be close and who'll nail it to the pip (I mean to the nearest 100th of a cent  ) ?

Let me try my very low tech chart analysis on this...





I think based on previous chart action it has a good chance of retracing back towards the previous resistance (now acting as support as technical guru's would say) around the 5.5c level.

The trend has certainly accelerated as can be seen by subsequent rising trend lines each time. So if the trend is strong it may ramp up the trend line further by having a shallow pull back before heading higher, time will tell... Watching with interest 👀


----------



## barney (2 March 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I think based on previous chart action it has a good chance of retracing back towards the previous resistance (now acting as support as technical guru's would say) around the 5.5c level.




Indeed Aus.  I had the same level pegged as my absolute low of the current retrace.

In honesty, I will be disappointed if it gets back to 055 in the short term, based purely on the current "blue-sky" possibilities.

No rules at this early stage of course, so anything is possible.

If it does re-visit 055 however, positive buying action would be expected. If not/re-assess from there.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 March 2021)

If it doesn't get a wriggle on up to near 8 cent (or higher) this week, I'd be looking for a retrace to the ~0.052 or 53 approximate level.


----------



## over9k (3 March 2021)

I would've gotten out yesterday if my rebuy from a few days back had filled.


----------



## barney (3 March 2021)

Gotta love Blue Sky  

Close above 7 would be excellent.


----------



## frugal.rock (3 March 2021)

over9k said:


> I would've gotten out yesterday if my rebuy from a few days back had filled.



That's nice dear.


----------



## frugal.rock (3 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> If it doesn't get a wriggle on up to near 8 cent (or higher) this week,








Next stop 10 cent ?

Go @greggles ⬆️↗️⬆️↗️💎💎💎🎇🎆🎂


----------



## over9k (3 March 2021)

Nice. Anyone sold yet?


----------



## greggles (3 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> View attachment 120825
> 
> 
> Next stop 10 cent ?
> ...




I expected that VML would do well during March, but it has really surprised me. This share price increase has been above and beyond what I thought possible in the first three days of the month.

I note the very upbeat response to yesterday's ASX Price Query:



> The Company is not aware of any reason or information which could be an explanation for the manner of trading in the Company’s securities over the aforementioned period. However, the Company notes its three announcements last week in which it is clear that Vital is on track to commence rare earth production at the Nechalacho Project, Canada in Q2 CY21, making Vital the first REE producer in Canada and only the second producer of REE in North America.
> 
> The Company has confirmed that under the mining contract that has been entered into, it will undertake mining and crushing duringa single campaign between March and September 2021. Mined ore will be stockpiled for use in ore sorting operations which will be undertaken by the Group’s personnel during the summer periods of 2021 to 2023.  It is anticipated that a second mining campaign will be required in 2024 to replenish stockpiles.
> 
> ...




Can it hit 10c by the end of March? After watching the very bullish price action over the last few days, I think it can.


----------



## over9k (3 March 2021)

It's caught media etc attention - the volume is massive now.


----------



## barney (3 March 2021)

For anyone who hasn't seen it, this Interview was recorded a little over 2 months ago and gives an insight into why the Market is probably waking up to VML's potential. 

About the 5 minute mark of the Video, Jeff Atkins details the arrangement with ReeTec in which the two Companies are basically becoming partners  encapsulating the complete Rare Earths mining and production cycle in which they both share in the profits.

We may well have the most equipped Speccie management on the ASX ..... exciting times ahead for these little battlers 

Interview with Jeff Atkins Xmas 2020


----------



## over9k (3 March 2021)

4 members & 8 guests viewing this thread. I suspect it's gotten quite a bit of attention from non-members of late, hence the fomo pile-in over the past couple of days. 

Will be interesting to see if many hold on to it from here on out.


----------



## barney (3 March 2021)

$29 million in turnover. I doubt we punters on ASF are affecting the turnover a lot O9

Current VWAP today is still about 7.6 cents I think .... If it closes at that or higher it has been a big day. 


Final *VWAP* of the day by my calculations = *0.076732349*

Close was almost bang on the VWAP.  Solid.

​


----------



## peter2 (3 March 2021)

Emotions going up and down with every tick. Check.
Looking for any information to confirm your opinion. Check. 
Ignoring information that doesn't support your opinion. Check. 
Hopes and dreams flooding thoughts. Check. 
Primitive brain (amygdala) totally activated. Check. 

@barney  All the symptoms of a day trader. Welcome buddy.


----------



## barney (3 March 2021)

peter2 said:


> Emotions going up and down with every tick. Check.
> Looking for any information to confirm your opinion. Check.
> Ignoring information that doesn't support your opinion. Check.
> Hopes and dreams flooding thoughts. Check.
> ...




Lol. Nah, it probably seems that way Pete. Heart beat has been very stable all week   lol.  If it ever sneaks above 10.5 however, that could cause the odd palpitation!  Always been a long term hold for me so the Day Traders having fun is just part of the game.  

ps Its nice to have some company on this Thread ... I talked to myself for 2019 and half of 2020 lol.


----------



## frugal.rock (3 March 2021)

It's not looking like the music is over yet....very interested to see how tomorrow and Friday play out, and then there's Monday.
I note when RareX (REE) popped early October last year, it took around 6~7 trade days to go from 0.07 to 0.17 and volumes were around 1/3 of what is being seen with Vital.
I expect current volumes are some amplification from the current market being a little ordinary or sideways style, and Vital standing out.
This situation could play out in further volatility.







The EOD chart really makes this breakout look like it's just getting started....a wait and see case though.


----------



## over9k (3 March 2021)

Meanwhile, here I am wondering if yesterday's run made all the normies dive in today and we can expect a nosedive once all the mania is over. 

With it making news etc it's very possible it was a FOMO pump. Not certain, but possible.


----------



## frugal.rock (4 March 2021)

Morrison expected to announce today $1 billion injection into precious metals/ rare earths production in Australia. (unconfirmed details)


----------



## over9k (4 March 2021)

@frugal.rock where'd you hear that?


----------



## frugal.rock (4 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Morrison expected to announce today $1 billion injection into precious metals/ rare earths production in Australia. (unconfirmed details)





over9k said:


> @frugal.rock where'd you hear that?



ABC.
 I got my wires crossed from a pre-announcement though it would seem.
Was some JV for lithium ion battery factory/ factories near Newcastle, NSW.
Rare earths importance was mentioned, but not the focus.
Apologies.
Note to self, Always best to hear it from the horses mouth before you flap your gums.


----------



## over9k (4 March 2021)

All good, I didn't buy based on it. VML now 13% off the peak and searching for a floor so it might actually be time to think about rebuying. Lots of buy orders around 065-066 so that looks like a possible support level now. It was also about where it pulled back to after the first spike a few days ago, probably not coincidentally.


----------



## barney (4 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I got my wires crossed from a pre-announcement though it would seem.




Nah, you weren't far off the mark Rock.


over9k said:


> @frugal.rock where'd you hear that?




Reported in Mineral News yesterday.


----------



## frugal.rock (5 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Lots of buy orders around 065-066 so that looks like a possible support level now



It closed on 0.066 yesterday, so you were on the money. MD can be very ice bergish.
A buy yesterday was achievable on 0.065 if nimble or standing order was in place.
Will be interesting to see what happens today out of the lead in from the apparent "mother" (fo) country.


----------



## over9k (5 March 2021)

A massacre, I suspect. I just made a post in the economic implications of the virus thread. Dunno how much cash you keep, but this is a hell of a dip to take advantage of.


----------



## over9k (5 March 2021)

Positive open while everything else has gotten smashed. Good start. In my mind I was thinking about a rebuy on monday. We'll see!


----------



## barney (5 March 2021)

Obviously I own this Stock and have a vested interest in if it does well 

That aside, I think I am pretty honest in my appraisal of how it has done in the past and where it might be heading.

Today's price action on a day when most Rare Earth Stocks, and the Market in general, was pretty ordinary,

Was at the very least, promising *(in the short term)*


Today we had 064 determined as a short term LOW

And 069 as a short term (and fairly strong) short term HIGH of Today's Range.


I have no idea where this will be well into the future, but Today told me that the Traders will sooner rather than later push this back to around Wednesday's Close at 078 

What happens after that I have no idea, but anyone sitting on a bad entry should have a chance to escape in my opinion

(Not advice obviously)


Todays *VWAP *out of interest was *0.06891*

Happy to hold and ride the fluctuations at this point


ps At the risk of burning in hell for ramping unceremoniously, LOL


Go @greggles in the March Monthly Comp


----------



## barney (8 March 2021)

barney said:


> I have no idea where this will be well into the future, but Today told me that the Traders will sooner rather than later push this back to around Wednesday's Close at *078*
> What happens after that I have no idea, but anyone sitting on a bad entry should have a chance to escape in my opinion








As expected it had the jump at the Open. Supply came in around 075-076.

Another good Announcement this morning.  All on track at the moment.

12KG Sample ready to send to ReeTec


----------



## over9k (8 March 2021)

So did anyone take the jump or are everyone holding fast?


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2021)

over9k said:


> So did anyone take the jump or are everyone holding fast?



There is a hell of a lot of volume.


----------



## barney (8 March 2021)

over9k said:


> So did anyone take the jump or are everyone holding fast?




More roller coaster to come but I'm strapped in for the ups and downs.  

10 cents per share  (approx $300 million market cap) has always been my initial longer term target.  I'm in no hurry.


----------



## barney (8 March 2021)

sptrawler said:


> There is a hell of a lot of volume.



Last Wednesday with almost 250 million shares traded is what Tech would call his VC bar (Volume Control)

Today's Volume is getting up there.

If last Wednesday high (082) gets taken out and forms support, it will start to look interesting. (Being tested as I typed  )


----------



## over9k (8 March 2021)

Well we're up to 086 and counting 

Some serious FOMO going on I suspect. The last few days have been pretty wild. Another speeding ticket due now I suspect.


----------



## over9k (8 March 2021)

Ultra high tech DD incoming: 







Hard to say a range is developing when there's 8 days of virtually unexplained, including speeding-ticketed, data to work with, but I got the last support level right so I'm going to put the next one at about 072. I might put a couple of buys in around there and just sit on one and see if I can beer money day-trade the other. 

I hate diverting the cash out of other quite productive assets but this looks like it's going to be too much fun not to.


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2021)

Jeez the rare earths expert George Bauk didn't last long, appointed one week, gone the next.


----------



## over9k (8 March 2021)

So this thing took a round trip from 069-086-070 ON THE DAY today: 






Which is A: hilarious and B: happened much faster than I'd expected. Anyone get a cheeky in & out order? 

I might put a buy order in tomorrow as it does actually look like some kind of ranged trend now. 

You can all obviously expect it to plummet in response.


----------



## barney (8 March 2021)

Just home late to see the day's action after this morning's flurry.

First impression;  Initially a little disappointed (I am human, lol) 

However, once reality set in, not overly surprised.

Nothing really surprises me anymore with the Stock market.  


Anyway ...... interesting price action.

Big Push this morning.  The News was good, but in reality, not going to send this up and hold another 30% in a day! 

I have a couple of possible short term scenarios that I think may eventuate, but lets see how the SP/Volume pans out over the next few days.

Family commitments so may or may not get time to throw up a Chart with some thoughts/possibilities (not that it really matters)

Bottom line for me personally at this stage;

We have Blue-Sky in place
We have an increased Market profile in general
We have Day Trader interest
We have something potentially way more valuable than the SP closed at today (in the longer term)

Hold till further notice


----------



## over9k (9 March 2021)

Alright I'm back in at 070. 

Expect the price to drop now.


----------



## barney (9 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Alright I'm back in at 070.
> 
> Expect the price to drop now.




It could well do that O9. 

Lots of questions unanswered till we see a bit more price behavior. 

My random thoughts below:


----------



## over9k (9 March 2021)

Close at 067. Told you it would drop


----------



## barney (9 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Close at 067. Told you it would drop




Under 065 may require some (SHORT TERM)  reassessment, depending on each punters "Stop" levels and *Time frame*.

Otherwise, Wait for 10 cents like I am    (and hopefully higher)


*Time* is an under rated factor in how we punters should trade the market (in my view)


----------



## over9k (9 March 2021)

I'm just wondering how the poor bastard that bought at 086 is feeling. 20% drop on the day and still going.


----------



## barney (9 March 2021)

over9k said:


> I'm just wondering how the poor bastard that bought at 086 is feeling. 20% drop on the day and still going.




You never know O9

He may well have been the same guy selling at 082-085 on the way up


----------



## barney (9 March 2021)

Jeff Atkins Interview today. He looks tired, but also "matter of fact".  No hint of failure in that voice! Lol  

Jeff looking focused! Interview on AusBiz


----------



## barney (12 March 2021)

I was actually very surprised at the second half of today's price action.

Positive to say the least.  Could be FOMO of course, but it looked a bit more definitive.

Another Announcement early next week might explain, but that is just a guess.

There is some speculation in the air of another off take agreement, but that might be a pipe dream given the ReeTec agreement is top shelf.

 On the flip side, SRC would obviously have been part of providing the recent sample to send to ReeTec, so if the Canadian Gov joins the VML/ReeTec party ... 

Look out  

Pure speculation on my part so please don't give too much credence.


----------



## frugal.rock (12 March 2021)

barney said:


> On the flip side, SRC would obviously have been part of providing the recent sample to send to ReeTec, so if the Canadian Gov joins the VML/ReeTec party ...




What's SRC ?
The late run gave a nice late boost to a flattish week.
Heck, even @over9k might be in profit now... unless panic set in shortly after buying?
Cheers


----------



## sptrawler (12 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> What's SRC ?
> The late run gave a nice late boost to a flattish week.
> Heck, even @over9k might be in profit now... unless panic set in shortly after buying?
> Cheers



Small Rectal Colonoscopy ?


----------



## frugal.rock (12 March 2021)

Solid Rock Cafe ?

Maybe it's like Bigfoot?

Saskatchewan Research Council

Here's Barney at 100 yards...


----------



## over9k (12 March 2021)

barney said:


> I was actually very surprised at the second half of today's price action.
> 
> Positive to say the least.  Could be FOMO of course, but it looked a bit more definitive.
> 
> ...





No no no barney, this is my ultra sophisticated trading-range DD paying off.

See, here's my post from before:






And here's now:






Right on trend see 




frugal.rock said:


> What's SRC ?
> The late run gave a nice late boost to a flattish week.
> Heck, even @over9k might be in profit now... unless panic set in shortly after buying?
> Cheers




Saskatchewan Research Council.

Yes I've held. Should've added some more at 065 tbh.


----------



## barney (13 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Maybe it's like Bigfoot?  Here's Barney at 100 yards...




Fair dinkum, I leave the room and you guys go silly  

Just home from spending a few hours somewhere I would rather not have; and no it wasn't the Police station FR.

Today's close was certainly interesting.  Not sure how long it will take ReeTec to analyze the 12kg sample sent, but confirmation of that being the quality expected is likely the next important announcement. Confirmation would put a rubber stamp on successful Production being achieved and definitely give the SP some solid foundation.  

The Company's last announcement also indicated they will be producing more samples for other prospective customers. Not sure what terms they will offer other customers, but given the ReeTec arrangement is more a collaboration agreement (mutually beneficial), you would think they will be looking for similar arrangements to maximize profits.

Ticking away like a swiss watch at the moment.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 March 2021)

Gets a good story, backgrounder in AFR








						WA rare earths company gets a leg up in Canada
					

A government-owned research agency in Canada is building downstream processing facilities for Perth-based Vital Metals as debate rages in Australia about support for the sector.




					www.afr.com


----------



## barney (14 March 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Gets a good story, backgrounder in AFR
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for the link DF.  Do you have an AFR subscription to post the whole report by any chance?   

A mention in AFR certainly won't hurt VML's profile!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 March 2021)

barney said:


> Thanks for the link DF.  Do you have an AFR subscription to post the whole report by any chance?



Will do mid week when back at laptop 👍... Up country right now. 🏞️


----------



## barney (14 March 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Will do mid week when back at laptop 👍... Up country right now. 🏞️



Cheers


----------



## barney (15 March 2021)

Logic says the High Volume 076-080 Level set on 8th March could be a short term holding point.

Hoping to see an Accumulation zone form around the mid 7's at this stage prior to any further News.


----------



## frugal.rock (15 March 2021)

Am guessing the story in the AFR as posted about by "the temporary  country bumpkin" @Dona Ferentes, has given it a boost this morning  with a nice little gap up.
It seemed as if a few new entrants were willing to pay up to lock it in today. 
I was thinking this morning I expect it to hit the 10c mark shortly, and then retreat back to current levels again ready for another go....


----------



## over9k (15 March 2021)

Sell order at 11c then?


----------



## barney (16 March 2021)

barney said:


> Hoping to see an Accumulation zone form around the mid 7's at this stage prior to any further News.




Certainly not knocking today's rise, but I was expecting a few days accumulation pattern.

Be interesting to see how the VWAP compared to the Close pans out.


----------



## over9k (16 March 2021)

One more day and it'll pull back according to my phd in statistics level analysis.


----------



## barney (17 March 2021)

Cap Raise.  

Had to happen of course.

At least they will be able to raise at a semi decent price this time with far less dilution.

I'm guessing the 10 day VWAP is around 7 cents. I hope they don't have to discount the price much under that. Maybe 6.5 cents??

300 million shares at 6.5 cents would give them $20 million. I'd be happy enough with those numbers

Just speculating. Anyone else like to have a guess


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2021)

_here you go .... can I unpack the car now??_

WA rare earths company gets a leg up in Canada​








						WA rare earths company gets a leg up in Canada
					

A government-owned research agency in Canada is building downstream processing facilities for Perth-based Vital Metals as debate rages in Australia about support for the sector.




					www.afr.com
				







*Brad Thompson*
Mar 14, 2021

Little-known Vital Metals is looking to steal a march on its bigger rivals and become the next non-China producer of separated rare earths materials with the help of a Canadian province that is building it a downstream processing plant.
The Perth-based company is about to start production at its Nechalacho project in the Northwest Territories, a move that will make it become the first rare earths producer in Canada and second in North America.

While debate rages in Australia about the risk of over-investment in downstream processing facilities and where the government should focus any support, the Saskatchewan Research Council is building and will operate a cracking and leaching plant owned by Vital Metals.
The plant is nowhere near the scale of the one being built by Lynas Rare Earths – the world’s biggest non-China supplier of materials essential in everything from electric cars, to wind turbines and guided missiles – at Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, but Vital sees it as an important start.
Under the deal with the Saskatchewan Research Council, a CSIRO-like body, Vital will also be able to dispose of the low-level radioactive waste left behind by cracking and leaching.

It is the backlash over the storage of this waste that led to Malaysian authorities setting Lynas a deadline to stop cracking and leaching at the company’s downstream operations at Kuantan and prompted it to invest about $500 million at Kalgoorlie and closer to its world-class Mt Weld rare earths mine.
The Saskatchewan Research Council also plans to build a separation plant next to the cracking and leaching plant at Saskatoon.
‘A huge benefit’​With US President Joe Biden ordering a 100-day review of weak spots in supply chains, including critical minerals such as rare earths, Vital managing director Geoff Atkins said it was an advantage to have a project in North America.
“Having a North American resource plus processing facilities is obviously a huge benefit,” he said.
“With everybody talking about how they can get mines running in five to 10 years, being able to say we’re actually going to do it this year is a massive advantage as well.”
Mr Atkins said Vital was encouraged by signals from the Biden administration that it backed Australian and Canadian integration into US supply chains for critical minerals.
He said the two countries, members of the Five Eyes security alliance alongside the US, the UK and New Zealand, were being viewed almost as “extended parts of the US”.
Growing hype​Last month, Lynas boss Amanda Lacaze lashed out at pretenders to the company’s throne as the leading non-China producer of the critical minerals and made it clear that Australian state and federal governments should support Kalgoorlie as a rare earths hub.
She also warned against overbuilding processing infrastructure amid the growing hype around the industry.
The Morrison government has since announced that it will provide access to the $1.2 billion Modern Manufacturing Fund to help critical minerals miners push downstream by building pilot and demonstration processing plants to attract commercial-scale investment.
Mr Atkins and other key figures in the Vital team are former Lynas employees looking to cash in on the expected growth in demand for rare earths and the strategic imperative of Western nations to reduce their reliance on Chinese supply.

Vital recently signed a binding off-take deal with Norwegian rare earths separation firm REEtec for 1000 tonnes of mixed rare earths carbonate a year for five years, with an option to increase that to 5000 tonnes over 10 years.  Mr Atkins said the Vital strategy was to start small and build from there.

Like other potential rare earths suppliers, the company’s share price has jumped since the start of 2021. It is up from 3¢ to 7.3¢ and has a market capitalisation of $173.8 million


----------



## barney (18 March 2021)

barney said:


> *Maybe 6.5 cents?*?    300 million shares at 6.5 cents would give them $20 million. I'd be happy enough with those numbers





I swear I didn't tap Cannacord's phones lol.  

Had the price correct.  The boys are going for double the amount of Shares I suggested.  Makes sense.

Not underwritten as far as I can see.   Be interesting to see if the SP retreats at all post issue.

 I won't be surprised if it keeps ticking higher particularly if the total +$40 million is taken up.  That would be a big vote of confidence

Two US Funds not yet named but they obviously like what they see.


----------



## over9k (18 March 2021)

Don't lie barney, we both know you secretly control canaccord through a series of shell corporations registered in the cayman islands and are about to take out an eight figure position in VML whilst secretly funding a clandestine military coup to overthrow a democratically elected south american government in order to artificially influence the precious metals price. How else could you know the cap raise price? 

You've been planning this for months.


----------



## barney (18 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Don't lie barney, we both know you secretly control canaccord through a series of shell corporations registered in the cayman islands and are about to take out an eight figure position in VML whilst secretly funding a clandestine military coup to overthrow a democratically elected south american government in order to artificially influence the precious metals price. How else could you know the cap raise price?
> 
> You've been planning this for months.




Lol.


----------



## over9k (18 March 2021)

P.S let me know when you're going to throw the coup, I'll buy some DFEN


----------



## barney (19 March 2021)

The SP looks like taking a bit of a hit on Open (to be expected)

The recent VWAP has been 071 so anything above that will be ok given the Cap Raise was at 065

Hopefully the buyers will start to trickle back in once the short term sellers leave the building.


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

The whole market's down. I wouldn't read into it. Probably buy some more actually.


----------



## barney (19 March 2021)

over9k said:


> The whole market's down. I wouldn't read into it. Probably buy some more actually.




Its standing up well given the down market

Had a few disgruntled Sellers dumped early but the Demand still looks fairly strong across the board

I wouldn't even rule out a close back at 079-080 (Rose colored glasses on) ... That would be a real vote of confidence

Realistically anywhere mid 7's after a large cap raise will be impressive.


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

Unless profit taking friday bites after the madness of the U.S last night.


----------



## waterbottle (19 March 2021)

Agreed. I'm liking the outlook for VML.

They're based in Canada. They're close to opening up. They'll be the first Canadian mine for Lithium.
More importantly, the US is hoping to make in-roads into Canadian sources of Lithium as part of their strategic policy









						Exclusive: U.S. looks to Canada for minerals to build electric vehicles - documents
					

The U.S. government is working to help American miners and battery makers expand into Canada, part of a strategy to boost regional production of minerals used to make electric vehicles and counter Chinese competitors.  On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Commerce held a closed-door virtual...




					au.finance.yahoo.com


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

Yeah globalisation is in its death throes. 

Mexico is actually the big winner through simple demographics


----------



## sptrawler (19 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Yeah globalisation is in its death throes.
> 
> Mexico is actually the big winner through simple demographics



My guess is Australia as well, the U.S wont want China to get hold of our mineral base.


----------



## barney (19 March 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Agreed. I'm liking the outlook for VML.
> 
> They're based in Canada. They're close to opening up. They'll be the first Canadian mine for Lithium.
> More importantly, the US is hoping to make in-roads into Canadian sources of Lithium as part of their strategic policy
> ...



Rare Earths not Lithium  @waterbottle  ..... but I agree with your sentiment


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

sptrawler said:


> My guess is Australia as well, the U.S wont want China to get hold of our mineral base.



BHP & RIO are already making huge, partnered moves, into the U.S with copper:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_Copper#:~:text=Resolution Copper (RCM) is a,the now inactive Magma Mine.

Copper being the other big one besides lithium that the EV revolution is going to demand obviously.


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

For those interested in what the U.S is doing from a strategic trade standpoint (and how they're doing it) going forward (especially with regards to their neighbours) this is a half hour that it well worth a watch:


----------



## waterbottle (19 March 2021)

over9k said:


> For those interested in what the U.S is doing from a strategic trade standpoint (and how they're doing it) going forward (especially with regards to their neighbours) this is a half hour that it well worth a watch:





Interesting video. Admittedly, I stopped at ~25min because I didn't think he had enough follow-through. It started off with an interesting premise - the collapse of globalisation with consumption winding down courtesy of our aging demographics. But this is something that I've watched/read/heard many times over the past 10 years... Still hasn't happened.


----------



## sptrawler (19 March 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Interesting video. Admittedly, I stopped at ~25min because I didn't think he had enough follow-through. It started off with an interesting premise - the collapse of globalisation with consumption winding down courtesy of our aging demographics. But this is something that I've watched/read/heard many times over the past 10 years... Still hasn't happened.



IMO the only reason consumption has dropped over recent years, is due to the fact a lot of technologies have matured e.g phones, computers, fridges, t.v's, sterio's, cars etc, also the life cycle has improved on most of the afore mentioned products.
With the advent of EV's, I think it will actually open up another growth period, it may well lead to consumer products that as yet haven't been thought of, AI and EV's will have a lot of integration opportunities I think.
As for the aging population reducing their spending, I think the perfect storm is coming, with parents spending the kids inheritance.
The suggested changes to franking credits last election, followed closely by the lack of travel opportunities due to the covid virus, will have struck a cord with older Aussies IMO and a lot of older Aussies will have had  a lot of time to ponder their mortality.
Can't wait to see the bureau of statistics analysis, in a couple of years. 
Just my thoughts.


----------



## frugal.rock (21 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Copper being the other big one besides lithium that the EV revolution is going to demand obviously.



I can't help thinking that if energy providers world wide run with energy storage, ie inline lithium batteries- big ones- to stabilise base loads, it could be bigger than the EV market....
Wind can blow 24 hours, suns up most days etc.
I'm of the opinion that Vital Metals (VML) and Bass Metals- Graphite- large flake (BSM) will be doing quite well out of all of this on a medium to long term basis.


----------



## barney (22 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm of the opinion that Vital Metals (VML) and Bass Metals- Graphite- large flake (BSM) will be doing quite well out of all of this on a medium to long term basis.




If the ducks keep flying in the correct direction I agree Rock.


Current Price action on VML suggests a Trading Range will develop without News to bump it along.

Fortunately, there should be more news flow soon. 

Hopefully the new big-wig Investors don't have too much say in how Geoff and the boys play the game.

I guess it's not unreasonable to expect $43 million might give them a bit more clout in the Boardroom than the average punter.

Musings below:  

069 Low looks important in the short term

Medium term I am hoping the 10 cent level becomes the LOW we become "concerned" about, lol


----------



## barney (24 March 2021)

barney said:


> Current Price action on VML suggests* a Trading Range will develop* without News to bump it along.
> 
> *069 Low looks important in the short term*




Behaving as expected for now.

069 Level being tested

The Supply side looks to be thinning

No news will see much of the same

A quick jump back to 080 on a sniff of good news will not surprise though


----------



## rnr (25 March 2021)

barney said:


> Behaving as expected for now.
> 
> 069 Level being tested
> 
> ...



@barney, maybe the possibility of a bounce after a minor pullback?

I do not hold. Cheers Rob


----------



## frugal.rock (26 March 2021)

ASX / Media Announcement 
26 March 2021 

VITAL METALS COMMENCES MINING OPERATIONS AHEAD 
OF PRODUCTION AT NECHALACHO REO PROJECT 

HIGHLIGHTS 
• Contract mining fleet mobilises to Vital’s North T Zone deposit at Nechalacho commencing 
mining operations

• Vital is on track to become the first REE producer in Canada and the second REE producer in North America 

• Production and working capital fully funded by equity after the success of our recently announced placement which raised $43m

• Contractor Det’on Cho Nahanni Construction Ltd will complete site establishment, mining, 
crushing, screening and other works at Nechalacho

• Ore sorter and other equipment to be transported to site by the end of March 2021. 

Held tightly.


----------



## waterbottle (26 March 2021)

Lets see how we go.

This is great news. The company seems to be hitting its goals, demonstrating their reliability.


----------



## barney (29 March 2021)

rnr said:


> @barney, maybe the possibility of a bounce after a minor pullback?
> 
> I do not hold. Cheers Rob




Sorry Rob @rnr    Missed your post. Been off the air a bit last few days.

Yeah I think a bounce is inevitable, but the length/depth of the current retrace is an unknown of course

The Market Depth (which can be very unreliable) suggests Supply is thinning

We do keep getting edged down a notch at a time on the SP however, but that indicates accumulation (in my opinion)

If 066-065 does get tested I think we would see some serious Volume hit the buy side at that level

Once we get a couple of low range low Volume days at the current levels I reckon it will be time to move up again.


Plenty of Media cropping up everywhere about VML.  This was on Stockhead about 15 hours ago.

Nothing we don't already know but still good "publicity"


----------



## barney (29 March 2021)

Also released today on "Paydirt"

Latest Interview with Geoff Atkins


----------



## Sean K (30 March 2021)

barney said:


> Behaving as expected for now.
> 
> 069 Level being tested
> 
> ...




A bit of a flag forming there Barney. Holding support at the moment.


----------



## barney (30 March 2021)

kennas said:


> A bit of a flag forming there Barney. Holding support at the moment.




Yeah it is looks ok from a technical point Kennas.

After such a steep rise and $43 million cap raise at 065, a bit of a rest is to be expected 

065 looks the line in the sand now of course. Any extended accumulation around that level is fine with me 🤠 

A 50% rise from 065 would get very close to the 10 cent level which is kind of where I have had it pegged to reach 

10 cents gives  approx $300 million market cap.  I think that is achievable within the short/medium based purely on potential.

Plenty of ups and downs still to come of course



*Two of the Substantial Holders in the recent cap raise:*

Thebes Offshore Master Fund/ Luxor Capital Group

Transocean Private Investments  (Owned by James Henderson who is also a Company Director of VML)

Always a vote of confidence when a Director stumps up *+$13 million *from his private Company


----------



## frugal.rock (30 March 2021)

barney said:


> Always a vote of confidence when a Director stumps up *+$13 million *from his private Company



My vote of confidence, I stumped up 0.157 % of $13 million today...haha,  a top up at $0.067

Order flow was trying to pull the supply out, hopefully it keeps moseying on up from now.


----------



## barney (30 March 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> My vote of confidence, I stumped up *0.157 % of $13 million today*...haha,  a top up at $0.067




Lol,  Well done Rock

I actually got a grade 1 in 2 Unit Maths, but I have no idea how many Shares you bought, lol 

Long time since I went to school 

However, if you don't make a few bob out of your 067 Buy over the next few weeks or so, I'll make up the difference


----------



## barney (30 March 2021)

Austwide said:


> @barney You drew my attention to it at 1.3cents. Thanks for that and i owe you one.




Out of curiosity @Austwide   are you still in ??  

I hope you are


----------



## over9k (30 March 2021)

barney said:


> Lol,  Well done Rock
> 
> I actually got a grade 1 in 2 Unit Maths, but I have no idea how many Shares you bought, lol
> 
> ...



about 20k worth


----------



## barney (8 April 2021)

Bit of a late surge on VML and a couple of other R/E Stocks this arv.  Interesting


----------



## frugal.rock (8 April 2021)

Had a standing sell order in on 0.077 and found at 4:05PM that it had been touched with around 4800 shares sold out of the 300k on order. 
(Was going for a swing trade on the way up and I hold more in another portfolio.)

I was a little flummoxed and then the penny dropped. 
The demise of GGG ... causing a ripple through the rare earths world. 
I think VML is in a great position to capitalise on these unusual, but not unforeseeable events.

I yanked my order off the market quick smart.
That 15 cent target is getting closer. Giddy up.
🐎


----------



## Austwide (8 April 2021)

@barney "Out of curiosity @Austwide are you still in ??"

Sorry barney I missed your post, not wanting to read too much about VML after selling on the 26th Feb at 4.8 for a reason that got cancelled.


----------



## over9k (8 April 2021)

To be fair, the entire market ran hard today. 

U.S futures are deep into the green too so looking good from here.


----------



## frugal.rock (8 April 2021)

over9k said:


> To be fair, the entire market ran hard today.
> 
> U.S futures are deep into the green too so looking good from here.



That doesn't explain the late volume & price action IMO which only started around 3:40 PM
Intraday chart.


----------



## barney (8 April 2021)

barney said:


> if you don't make a few bob out of your 067 Buy over the next few weeks or so, I'll make up the difference




Hopefully I am off the hook on that statement now @frugal.rock lol 😬

ps Hope that order you pulled  behaves itself tomorrow/next week

The Market Depth (unreliable I admit) and VWAP indicates this arv's push is a bit hard to read

Tomorrow's open might shed some light on it?

Today's VWAP was in the range of 7.2-7.3 cents  

The Close could be either a prelude to something , or orchestrated.  Interesting.


----------



## barney (8 April 2021)

Austwide said:


> Sorry barney I missed your post, not wanting to read too much about VML after selling on the 26th Feb at 4.8 for a reason that got cancelled.




All good @Austwide 

I think you made some decent beer money either way?

No one has to pick tops and bottoms to make a few dollars 🤓 

Cheers.


----------



## over9k (8 April 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> That doesn't explain the late volume & price action IMO which only started around 3:40 PM
> Intraday chart.
> 
> View attachment 122515



No, but nothing else I'm aware of does either?


----------



## frugal.rock (8 April 2021)

over9k said:


> No, but nothing else I'm aware of does either?



I had it correlated to the GGG 
(Greenland Minerals) political issue ?
VML overdue for a bumrush anyway me thinks.


----------



## waterbottle (8 April 2021)

I agree RE market depth. Sellers had been pulling away for the past week whilst 66 and 67 levels held steady - it was bound to pop. 

Next question is when the next mining report will be released. IMO should have more to run once we have confirmation of actual drilling work being done and ore being pulled from the ground.


----------



## barney (9 April 2021)

barney said:


> this arv's push is a bit hard to read Today's *VWAP was in the range of 7.2-7.3 cents*
> The Close could be either a prelude to something , or orchestrated.  Interesting.




It appears yesterday's late spike was more orchestrated than predictive as suspected.

Yesterday's VWAP is currently holding, but Sellers are evident.

Nothing sinister in it, but no chocolates today 😖


----------



## barney (13 April 2021)

Chugging along nicely since the push down last few days.

The .071 line got cleaned up earlier by a sole 3 million share grab.  (Approx + $200,000)  Positive  

So we have recent accumulation around 071-073  and recent "orchestrated" selling above that level

Probably more of the same for the time being if the players are indeed mopping up?  (looks that way)

All good from where I sit till proven otherwise


----------



## barney (13 April 2021)

OK So VML is doing pretty much as expected till proven otherwise

No Charts as I am cooking my  wife dinner, lol.

VML at under 068 at this point in time signals warning bells

Do I think that will happen??


Mmmmm .... 068 may get touched , but under that level for any length of time??  Not in my life time  


ps If that happens there will be a cascade of sellers, and my ungenerous  "smarty pants" over-confidence 

Will be treated with the appropriate  Response!

We shall see what eventuates


----------



## barney (16 April 2021)

barney said:


> VML at under 068 at this point in time signals warning bells
> 
> Do I think that will happen??
> 
> Mmmmm .... 068 may get touched , but under that level for any length of time??  Not in my life time




Tightening Range on relatively low Volume.  Still behaving as expected but a return back to .073 would feel a lot better.





	

		
			
		

		
	
r


----------



## over9k (17 April 2021)

The hype's worn off. Without more news, it's going to meander.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 April 2021)

over9k said:


> The hype's worn off. Without more news, it's going to meander.



Glad you said that o9.
Because you know what's going to happen now don't you?

I didn't cancel a sell order on 0.077 for nothing.
(The joys of school holidays....disturbances left right & centre)


----------



## over9k (17 April 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Glad you said that o9.
> Because you know what's going to happen now don't you?
> 
> I didn't cancel a sell order on 0.077 for nothing.
> (The joys of school holidays....disturbances left right & centre)



Hey I sold at 040 after a 029 purchase and then watched it moon to 087, don't even start


----------



## waterbottle (17 April 2021)

Agreed, although orders continuing to build at 66, 67 and 68 despite the absence of news.


----------



## barney (17 April 2021)

over9k said:


> The hype's worn off. Without more news, it's going to meander.




Now don't be like that O9, lol.

Being realistic, the current Market Cap is $285 million pre production. That looks fair to me for the moment

1st stage Mining should be underway almost as we speak. 

Ore Sorter setup etc to enable beneficiation setup should also be well in progress 

I assume these will likely be the next Announcements. 

They may not change the SP dramatically, but everything is progressing nicely and on time.

The experience Geoff and team bring to the table is invaluable at this end of the Market

Sitting patiently


----------



## barney (17 April 2021)

News Story on the current global Rare Earths situation. *(The Guardian 17th April 2021)*

Not directly related to VML, but very much still "related" given our early Production pipeline

Potential perfect storm developing for R/E Companies with genuine claims.

Fist half of story:






Full Story


----------



## sptrawler (17 April 2021)

barney said:


> News Story on the current global Rare Earths situation. *(The Guardian 17th April 2021)*
> 
> Not directly related to VML, but very much still "related" given our early Production pipeline
> 
> ...



Yes Barney, the big plus with rare earth is, it doesnt matter whether it is a BEV or a fuel cell EV, both require rare earth magnet motors and no one is trying to improve on that as far as I know.
Unlike batteries, which are under constant development pressure, to squeeze more juice out of them, which in turn affects the market of the prefered minerals.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2021)

barney said:


> News Story on the current global Rare Earths situation. *(The Guardian 17th April 2021)*
> 
> Not directly related to VML, but very much still "related" given our early Production pipeline
> 
> ...



I read that article in the Crusty Chronicle aka The Guardian.

Its main message is not at investors but rather its base, environmentalists on large government and academic salaries, and the twitter mob of unemployed angels. 

The CCP and Chinese RE investors don't seem bothered by the environmental impact of RE, nor do Apple or Samsung. 

So if the comrades and the capitalists are on the same page give me some ink.

I may throw a few kopeks at VML.

gg


----------



## bk1 (18 April 2021)

Read the comments from Guardian readers below the line, its confirmation bias at its finest. These people are clueless, the good news?, they will never ever get the keys to the castle.
They simply feed of each other in an echo chamber of moral outrage....


----------



## barney (18 April 2021)

bk1 said:


> Read the comments from Guardian readers below the line, its confirmation bias at its finest. These people are clueless, the good news?, they will never ever get the keys to the castle.
> They simply feed of each other in an echo chamber of moral outrage....




Indeed @bk1 

I always prefer to listen to what Geoff has to say rather than read general news reports as well.  The below interview is a month old (not sure if I posted it earlier, but won't hurt to post again given the current time line)

The positivity coming from both Geoff and the Interviewer is undeniable, and is put into English we "normal" people can understand 

VML are obviously close to announcing the start of Production as described, but as stated, the real fun starts when they ramp up to Stage 2 down the track.   

Lots of water to flow under the bridge of course, but I'm banking on the current stream turning into a rapid over time.

Definitely worth a listen for anyone interested in the Co. (Hope the link works ok)


----------



## barney (21 April 2021)

Bit of a shake-out on VML this morning.  Just touched .063  Most other R/E Stocks are also down today/lately.

The R/E Stocks with substance should bounce the hardest once the shaking stops. 

No major concerns with this little battler in the longer term.


----------



## waterbottle (26 April 2021)

Radio silence from VML... 

Any news on mining activity?


----------



## barney (26 April 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Radio silence from VML...
> 
> Any news on mining activity?




Pretty fair bet that the drills are churning as we speak @waterbottle

Stage 1 drilling/mining campaign from March (mobilization) till September this year

Which will also incorporate Ore sorting once sufficient stockpiles are accumulated

We are working in the frozen wasteland, so all the action will be during the "Summer" season

Summer in Canada is probably a bit like skinny dipping in Tasmania during the middle of Winter, but we have no control over that.

I expect we will get an update on mining/ore sorter operations within 2-3 weeks (assuming all is going to plan)

They will be mining and sorting till the weather curtails activities (late September/October?)

Assuming enough stockpiles are dug up in the initial campaign, they will not need to dig further till 2024

In other words, the plan is to generate value while keeping costs low in the early stages (as they have always stated)


A lot more potential here if the ducks keep quacking🦆🦆🦆 And who doesn't like Duck Soup





__





						duck soup - Bing video
					






					www.bing.com


----------



## barney (27 April 2021)

Was watching the pre-open market depth on this one this morning. It was shaping up to drop a tick or so with plenty of Supply being offered at .060 

Went back just after the Open and the lot had been taken, plus a bit more, so .060 looks like the boxing bag for the time being

15 million went through in quick fashion, now the room is empty ...  Hopefully it all turns out to be accumulation.


----------



## barney (27 April 2021)

Mmmm ....  That question got answered quickly. 

Current VWAP this early is close to *.062   .060  *definitely looks like accumulation this morning

.064 has a bit of previous Volume attached.  If that gets "jumped" anytime soon, it could move quickly. 

Either way, positive PA today  (Just on 50 million shares traded already 11.40am)


----------



## over9k (7 May 2021)

Down to 056. Are our bums sore yet?


----------



## barney (7 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Down to 056. Are our bums sore yet?



Lol .... Very funny O-9 

I can confess my trading account does not look as attractive over the last 2 weeks, lol

However, in true crazy Spec-accumulator  madness  ⬅️(that's me)

I bought a couple more yesterday at .053

Not because I need anymore, but because it looked close to the lows 

Lower than .051 I have pegged as the "not happy zone" 

If it gets under 05 , I will not be so cheery 

Just to show I am a truthful chap   (Trade screen shot below)


----------



## waterbottle (7 May 2021)

Yes a bit sour, but so is everything renewable - see US markets. 
I don't think this changes any long term views at this stage. 
Still keenly awaiting results from their next stage of drilling (if Lithium is found it will go off) and a report on their production.


----------



## over9k (7 May 2021)

@waterbottle are you down or just not as ahead as you were?


----------



## waterbottle (7 May 2021)

over9k said:


> @waterbottle are you down or just not as ahead as you were?




Down but still think the trade will be worth it based on fundamentals. I think VML has been unfortunate to have been caught up in a broader market pull-back.

My 2c:

Short term, there has been a big pull-back in a lot of companies that were pivoting themselves to play a role in the green economy, both in the US (BLNK, FCEL, PLL, LTHM) and Aus (LKE, CXO, PLS, GXY, MNS, VUL, NVX).
Similarly, rare earth prices have retreated over the past month. Lithium remains stagnant. Copper has hit all time highs. 

Medium term I. E. Late 2021, I'd expect a bounce in the share price once production starts. I think this is where management will have to prove that they really do have the acumen to develop new partnerships with additional customers. 
I think this would be a really important point in time for VML for a number of reasons:

1. It will be the first rare earth mine in Canada meaning it will have an advantage in seeking out partnerships with US manufacturers/processors (US government is keen on securing critical metals and has waived tarrifs for the same imported through Canada) once they can demonstrate reliability. 

2. VML's 1st stage project is actually shared with a Canadian miner known as Avalon metals. VML owns the plot to a depth of 150m, whereas Avalon owns the remaining depth. The first 150m has both light and heavy rare earths.
The basis for VML's project was a geological study commissioned by Avalon in 2013. Sampling of Nechalacho was limited (and VML's reports note this) despite Avalon's report in 2013 stating that lithium-containing rock may have been located on the site. 
If VML's 2nd stage drilling is able to demonstrate lithium within their North T zone project then this would be a game changer for the company (although admittedly this is just speculation at this stage). 

Long term, the company seems to be focussed on expanding its Wigu Hill project although I'm extremely skeptical about this. Africa tends to be volatile and a mine in that part of the world would not be as accessible. Ideally another site would be acquired or they focus their efforts elsewhere.


----------



## barney (10 May 2021)

Ticking higher last couple of days.  No complaints from me after the recent sell off. 

Today's VWAP so far is a whisker above .059   Hopefully it turns out to be  interested Buyers and the the up-trend resumes.


----------



## barney (11 May 2021)

barney said:


> Hopefully it turns out to be  interested Buyers and the the up-trend resumes.




Overall market feels potentially "nasty" at the moment 

VML is one of my Spec bench-marks, and to be honest, it's doing better than some others  

Rare Earths in general today were not in a happy space,

Lynas however still held it's ground, and even though I fully expect another test of the $5.50 area for it,

I think the R-E space is still one of the potential/likely front runners, even if the general market has a bit of a spaz-attack


No real point to this post, but VML above 051 is a BUY/Accumulate in my view

VML under 050 is potentially scary (in the short term)



Ya gotta love Specs


----------



## over9k (11 May 2021)

The whole market's mental at the moment, I wouldn't read too much into it. It's when it diverges from the market that you need to get busy.


----------



## barney (11 May 2021)

over9k said:


> The whole market's mental at the moment, I wouldn't read too much into it. It's when it diverges from the market that you need to* get busy.*




I am a very busy BEE O9 don't you worry, lol ........


In all seriousness,  I think VML is sitting pretty well overall, irrespective of short term Market gyrations

Today's close actually looked positive (to me) on what could have been conceived a "bad day" 

We shall see if I am deluded or not over the next week or so


----------



## waterbottle (11 May 2021)

Agreed with the above - EV/green economy is taking a beating especially in the US.


----------



## barney (12 May 2021)

*VITAL COMPLETES FIRST BLAST AT NECHALACHO AHEAD OF RARE EARTHS PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS*

• First blast milestone achieved at Nechalacho Rare Earth Project
• Commencement of mining begins at Canada’s first rare earth mine
• Concentrate production will begin via ore sorting in June 2021, ahead of being sent to Saskatoon cracking and leaching facility later in 2021


I don't expect the news to move the SP much, but the lads are progressing as planned, on time!


----------



## sptrawler (12 May 2021)

barney said:


> *VITAL COMPLETES FIRST BLAST AT NECHALACHO AHEAD OF RARE EARTHS PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS*
> 
> • First blast milestone achieved at Nechalacho Rare Earth Project
> • Commencement of mining begins at Canada’s first rare earth mine
> ...



Yes barney, a mate of mine (mech fitter) who know lives in Canada, says things seem to get done faster there.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 May 2021)

over9k said:


> The whole market's mental at the moment, I wouldn't read too much into it. It's when it diverges from the market that you need to get busy.



VML is on the radar of the newer ex-jobkeeper young and restless day traders and will be volatile for a little while longer. 

Volatility is good though for a stock. 

gg


----------



## waterbottle (19 May 2021)

Continuing the drop, as are rare earth metal prices - take Neodymium prices which actually mirror VML's prices quite well.







Falling rare earth prices will unfortunately impact on VMLs potential (both in terms of profits and ability to grow). I think the share price is going to be ruled by the old adage "markets will stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent" or something to that effect....


----------



## sptrawler (19 May 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Continuing the drop, as are rare earth metal prices - take Neodymium prices which actually mirror VML's prices quite well.
> 
> View attachment 124502
> 
> ...



I guess the only thing in VML's favour is proximity to the U.S and the U.S wishing to deleverage its dependence on China's rare earths, I suppose we will have to see how it pans out.
If they go belly up it wont do a lot of damage to my bottom line, I haven't put the sheep station on it. 😂


----------



## waterbottle (19 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I guess the only thing in VML's favour is proximity to the U.S and the U.S wishing to deleverage its dependence on China's rare earths, I suppose we will have to see how it pans out.
> If they go belly up it wont do a lot of damage to my bottom line, I haven't put the sheep station on it. 😂



I don't think VML is staring down bankruptcy - after all they have managed to raise $43 million in cash and by their projections that should keep them going until the 2nd half of 2022.
The problem is going to be moving towards stage 2 of their plan. They've just started drilling the North T zone and are expecting core sample assays in Q3 2021. Even if those samples are favorable, the real question will be if the mine is economical at the (presumably lower, given the trend) rare earth prices. If not, it might mean another cap raise.


----------



## barney (19 May 2021)

waterbottle said:


> the real question will be if the mine is economical at the (presumably lower, given the trend) rare earth prices.




VML are as well placed as any hopeful RE Co. but there are a couple of important milestones yet to be announced before either the speculators return, or the broader Market invests seriously in the Company.

In the short term, the *deal with REEtec still needs to be signed off on*. The Market will react positively once that news eventuates, but without confirmation of their acceptance of VML's carbonate sample, market players will likely remain on the fence.

On top of that, the political aspect of the Chinese dominance in the RE market will always create problems until a Company/Companies big enough to affect world supply can put more pressure on the Chinese players and the RE pricing.

VML could be one of those Companies down the track, but at this stage we are still a minnow looking for a  bigger bowl to swim in.

Once REEtec give VML the nod (*hopefully soon*), they can get their extraction plant built (next door to the Canadian Gov's  Processing plant being built in Saskatoon) 

If all the above is achieved, they will be able to ramp up to multiples of their pilot production numbers really* (really)* quickly 

VML could easily end up a billion dollar company simply by following their game plan, but that is obviously not going to happen overnight.

In the short term, if the 5 cent price level holds for a while I'll be happy enough until we get the next round of important news.


----------



## waterbottle (19 May 2021)

barney said:


> VML are as well placed as any hopeful RE Co. but there are a couple of important milestones yet to be announced before either the speculators return, or the broader Market invests seriously in the Company.
> 
> In the short term, the *deal with REEtec still needs to be signed off on*. The Market will react positively once that news eventuates, but without confirmation of their acceptance of VML's carbonate sample, market players will likely remain on the fence.
> 
> ...




Good point RE: REEtec, I had assumed that this deal was already agreed upon!

In regards to the rare earth market in general, I don't think VML needs to get to the point where it displaces China. The political ships have already set course and are moving as much high tech manufacturing away from China in the interest of national security. This is the case for Australia, US, Europe, and I believe will be so for many years to come (unless China changes their behaviour but I don't see any reason why they would).
IMO this means that Western governments will take anything they can get from non-China companies, which VML falls into.


----------



## barney (19 May 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Good point RE: REEtec, I had assumed that this deal was already agreed upon!
> 
> IMO this means that Western governments will take anything they can get from non-China companies, which VML falls into.




Just to clarify my comments re the REEtec arrangement

A Definitive Offtake Agreement was Announced in February, this is correct

As part of that Definitive O/T, the following was stated by the Company:

_The rights and obligations under the definitive Offtake Agreement are subject to both Vital Metals and REEtec proceeding with a *final investment decision ("FID") for the development of their respective commercial plants* (with raw material sourced from Vital) and completion of the agreed stages as set out in the announcement dated 21 December 2020._

There is no problem, but there is a bit of paperwork etc to line up before the FID becomes a reality, in reality

Organising the complete process to run smoothly and on time is a big job. So far Geoff and the boys have done a great job in getting the timing spot on, but I'll be a lot happier once the FID is signed/sealed, and the Extraction Plant is under construction etc,  

A 12kg sample was sent to REEtec in March. I'm unsure of whether we will get an announcement on their actual acceptance of the product, or whether we might just get an announcement regarding the above *FID* when the appropriate time comes, which would in essence mean the same thing.

I think the sliding SP tends to make we shareholders a bit "impatient"  lol.  If the SP was ticking higher, I'd probably stop reading the Company announcements so closely and watch TV instead


----------



## barney (21 May 2021)

barney said:


> I'll be a lot happier once the FID is signed/sealed, *and the Extraction Plant is under construction *etc,




That's another important piece of information.  Now for the FID with REE tec and its game on.


----------



## waterbottle (21 May 2021)

barney said:


> That's another important piece of information.  Now for the FID with REE tec and its game on.
> 
> View attachment 124601



Great location too! And the plant is being constructed at the Landlord's expense to spec (that'll be interesting to see). 

I recommend watching the webinars posted by the SRC - they have developed methods to isolate rare earths from a concentrate, so proximity to this facility is key. 

Hopefully VML retain their lead.


----------



## barney (21 May 2021)

waterbottle said:


> And the plant is being constructed at the Landlord's expense* to spec* (that'll be interesting to see).




Indeed at WB.  Its not exactly a small space either at 40,000 square feet.

They plan to be in the building on 1st November this year

That gives the builders a whisker over 5 months to construct 

Its looks a tight timeline but the VML boys have delivered on every one of those so far


SP has had a small bump today but I still think the Final Investment Decision from REEtec is the news we need to get it moving again

Now that VML have committed to the Extraction Plant build, REEtec have more incentive to finalise the deal. 

Waiting (slightly impatiently)


----------



## barney (24 May 2021)

barney said:


> Waiting (slightly impatiently)




Pre- Open Trading Halt (Price sensitive)  Announcement not yet available.  TH's always make me nervous

Good news could involve the FID with REEtec  Bad news could involve NO FID with REEtec  Fingers crossed at this point 


ps  (5 minutes later)  Disregard the above.  TH re Exploration results. One would assume good results otherwise no need for a TH.

_*The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of an announcement regarding the exploration results or prior to the commencement of trading on Wednesday, 26 May 2021*_


----------



## waterbottle (24 May 2021)

barney said:


> Pre- Open Trading Halt (Price sensitive)  Announcement not yet available.  TH's always make me nervous
> 
> Good news could involve the FID with REEtec  Bad news could involve NO FID with REEtec  Fingers crossed at this point
> 
> ...



Fingers crossed....


----------



## barney (26 May 2021)

Announcement due in about 15 minutes

Not sure how much it will move the SP, but hopefully it will give a chance to clean out a few of the fringe holders who can Sell into any rise

All we need now is REEtec to confirm they want at least 5,000t per annum and we can get a bit of security into the Stock


----------



## barney (26 May 2021)

This is a better result than even I expected .... Serious looking deposit


----------



## waterbottle (26 May 2021)

barney said:


> This is a better result than even I expected .... Serious looking deposit
> 
> 
> View attachment 124889



Massive upgrade. 

Can't find the announcement though. 

Couple this with news from the US that Biden is hoping to source EV materials from other Western countries and this is BIG


----------



## barney (26 May 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Can't find the announcement though.




Be up in about 1 minute


----------



## barney (26 May 2021)

Resource upgrade

Hope that works


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 May 2021)

isn't _price discovery_ a wonderful thing?


----------



## barney (26 May 2021)

Back up near the Cap Raise price at the moment.  Probably plenty of Sellers around this level.  

Hopefully we can burn a few million off the register today.


----------



## barney (26 May 2021)

Plenty of Punters cashing in their chips it seems. Currently .057  Not unexpected. 

Need to burn the firewood to create the coals of course. Still early days for this minnow.


----------



## barney (27 May 2021)

VML has Bots, lol.  Better than having measles I guess  

The Bots are chipping in around the .056 level so I'll take that as accumulation until the 6 million on offer at .055 gets wiped 

The gap at .055 got filled yesterday so hopefully that level will hold now till further news.

Further assay results of the remaining holes is expected not too far down the track. Watching the paint dry in the meantime.


----------



## barney (27 May 2021)

barney said:


> I'll take that as accumulation until the 6 million on offer at .055 gets wiped




Home from real work and see that the .055 did get wiped later in the day.  Kind of expected that but was hoping that some big kahunas might jump in and stump up for a few extra shares.

Anyway, more selling/buying at this level is all part of the process before it can move higher.  

At this point in time, if .060 gets broken to the upside before .052 gets broken top the downside, all is well

The other way round would not be be great in the short term  

See how it pans out over the next few days.  The paint is still drying


----------



## over9k (28 May 2021)

Ok so this just came up on asxbets, and, I just...


----------



## aus_trader (28 May 2021)

It has pulled back hard despite the good announcements, so a rally might be due... just my thinking.


----------



## barney (28 May 2021)

aus_trader said:


> It has pulled back hard despite the good announcements, so a rally might be due... just my thinking.




Hope you're correct Aus  

Should be more assay results soon, but we need the FID from REEtec to create more certainty in the market.  

Then again, the recent raising of $43 million at .065 was a pretty fair vote of confidence.

I think its just churning at the moment due to the large number of SOI / EOFY etc.  

High Volume levels create a platform of course, so as long as it churns within a reasonable range I'm happy to sit and wait


----------



## over9k (28 May 2021)

I actually agree barney. 

Thing is, we now play the opportunity cost game. Are we better off putting our cash to work elsewhere?


----------



## barney (28 May 2021)

over9k said:


> I actually agree barney.
> 
> Thing is, we now play the opportunity cost game. Are we better off putting our cash to work elsewhere?




Yep agree @over9k 

There would still be a few punters holding decent profits on VML from the 4-5 cent region (potential sellers)

Plus there would be *more* retailers who got in on the March spike and are a bit underwater (potential sellers on any positive price moves)

Plus all those (retailers) buying the "dip" from late April to mid May could also be looking for a break even/get out trade (potential sellers)

Therefore punters re-directing their cash to something with more (short term) potential is totally understandable as you suggest 


Shorter term traders above represent a large % of retail traders in general (i.e. swap/sell at a loss/ chase the next winner etc etc.)

I stopped "short term" trading a few years back, and now accumulate (speculative) value.  And am doing much () better, lol.


In my view VML is currently valued at a reasonable level, and the selling is justified.

I'm in for the potential a year/two years/and further, down the track.

This Stock has as much potential for medium term price appreciation as any on the ASX, (in my view!)

(Bear in mind I own a lot of Stock in VML, and wear rose colored glasses when I post about them, lol. )

Cheers, and have a good weekend


----------



## frugal.rock (28 May 2021)

Well, fwiw, I topped up again yesterday.
Another 200,000 
Won't be long now.... (was what the monkey said when they cut off his tail) 🙈🙉🙊


----------



## barney (28 May 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, fwiw, I topped up again yesterday.
> Another 200,000
> Won't be long now.... (was what the monkey said when they cut off his tail) 🙈🙉🙊



Well done Rock ...... Lets hope the Monkey knows his trading!

The longer VML stays in the .052-.056 Range with decent Volume, the greater the next jump will be (in my opinion)

Given its still early days for this little battler, we should not forget that some "deep pockets"

Were happy to stump up $43 million dollars at .065 a couple of weeks back   

Its a no brainer if "time" is added to the equation (again in my view )


----------



## over9k (29 May 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, fwiw, I topped up again yesterday.
> Another 200,000
> Won't be long now.... (was what the monkey said when they cut off his tail) 🙈🙉🙊



Let's get ready to rumble!


----------



## barney (29 May 2021)

VML for me in the June monthly comp.  .065 is the target for all the reason posted above recently.

ps  I hope that bear hits himself in the kahunas with that chair @over9k


----------



## over9k (29 May 2021)

I had quite the giggle when I first saw it posted. You know it's good when you steal it.


----------



## barney (29 May 2021)

over9k said:


> I had quite the giggle when I first saw it posted. You know it's good when you steal it.



Indeed.

Brilliant modern adaptation of trading (especially in the recent current climate)


----------



## sptrawler (30 May 2021)

barney said:


> Indeed.
> 
> Brilliant modern adaptation of trading (especially in the recent current climate)





over9k said:


> I had quite the giggle when I first saw it posted. You know it's good when you steal it.



You two do realise, you will get a speeding ticket, for ramping.🤪


----------



## aus_trader (30 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> You two do realise, you will get a speeding ticket, for ramping.🤪



For sure if it were on the other forum 

Warned, Deleted, Banned, Removed and Suspended and so on and so forth...


----------



## barney (30 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> You two do realise, you will get a speeding ticket, for ramping.🤪



I hope so Homer!


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Let's get ready to rumble!
> 
> View attachment 125095



@Joe Blow I think this would make a great new forum logo/banner. Just saying.


----------



## barney (30 May 2021)

over9k said:


> @Joe Blow I think this would make a great new forum logo/banner. Just saying.



I agree O-9

Any copywrite issues??


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

Alright lads he liked my post. New forum banner when?


----------



## Joe Blow (30 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Alright lads he liked my post. New forum banner when?




Errr... let me think about it. It's definitely meme ready. Just add some rocket ships and some funny text and it's ready for Wall Street Bets.


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

Joe Blow said:


> Errr... let me think about it. It's definitely meme ready. Just add some rocket ships and some funny text and it's ready for Wall Street Bets.



Ok @Joe Blow  what about this: 






@frugal.rock what do you think?


----------



## Joe Blow (30 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Ok @Joe Blow  what about this:




There ya go.


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

I think I've missed my calling with this economics/investing business. I should have been an artist.


----------



## frugal.rock (30 May 2021)

over9k said:


> I think I've missed my calling with this economics/investing business. I should have been an artist.



So you steal an image, plagiarise it, then label me....

I think you should be working out the quickest easiest cheapest way for me to short lean hogs futures.
Or rebuild my LS1...

There's only room for 1 village idiot here and the position is tightly held....

🕺


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

I dunno, @moXJO and I were performing some advanced level stupidity over in the crypto thread.


----------



## moXJO (30 May 2021)

Dude you need to mint that into an nft and sell it for a $mill


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

moXJO said:


> Dude you need to mint that into an nft and sell it for a $mill



See rock? You aren't even close to this kind of 200iq thinking.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 May 2021)

Oh dear. I had to look that up. 

_It's a meme that kind of over-exaggerates when someone makes a clever *play*. For example in LoL when someone predicts where their opponent will dodge to and aims their ability in that direction. Like with most twitch memes the humor is in the over-exaggerating factor. ... The twitch chat *would* then spam *200 IQ*._

but there again, (kind of) mostly noise.


----------



## over9k (30 May 2021)

Yeah, it's morphed into something you use to take the piss now. Like if something was exceedingly stupid you'd describe it as "200iq". There's another term called "smooth brain" (the joke being your brain is so large it's compressed into your skull and lost its wrinkles/gone smooth due to it now using all the available space) which is interchangeable. 

I need a new title. Hmm. I think I've got it.


----------



## frugal.rock (30 May 2021)

moXJO said:


> Dude you need to mint that into an nft and sell it for a $mill



Dude, you need to muck out your digital stables and sell those electronic nuggets horse **** in bags of various sizes for compost...
My smooth brain is so smooth it came out my ears many times and many people assisted vigorously to push it back in.
As a result, I now have cauliflower ears and shoot florets out my nose...bushman hanky style!  Whoodathunkit


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 May 2021)

VML which due to tardiness and travel has already been taken from me for the ASF competition in June is a stock which more through luck than skill on my part was very good to me on an in and out basis last year and in to January.

Speaking of which I was put on to it by Alexander Thynn the late Marquess of Bath just before Covid from which he expired shortly after April Fools day last year. He was a very good artist and his son is presently evicting his wifelets from the cottages on the estate now that the will has been read. At his most energetic they numbered over 70. The wifelets, not the cottages. It is a long story but he gave me some very good stock tips and I will not have a word said against him. His picture in his prime.





The chart for VML is very interesting and being a rare earther and golder in Canada and Tanzania there is a potential blue sky monster here. To be honest Canada worries me more than Tanzania, they are so stiff and woke in that hell of a country one wonders how any driller can make a quid.

Anyways a chart. VML just chugs along and has retraced to support with recent good volume after some announcement or other. Does it have the legs. Alexander's death last year leaves me distraught as he would know whether to double up or to exit VML, to wait for the next leg up or depart. I'm waiting as it happens. Momentum is good.

.
	

		
			
		

		
	




gg


----------



## barney (30 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> VML has already been taken from me for the ASF competition in June  I was put on to it by Alexander Thynn the late Marquess of Bath
> 
> View attachment 125221




I am impressed  @Garpal Gumnut that you have been able to find a picture of my deceased Uncle Al.

He was indeed a handy lad with the ladies as you mention, and also a fantastic judge of Spec Stocks. 

No doubt he would be happy with the VML chart as well at this point in time (Thynne) If he were still with us 

I do not hold his sway with the Ladies, however I do agree with his perception of the future of Rare Earths

He was 20 years ahead of his time, but so was his hair and dress sense. Thanks Uncle Al.


----------



## frugal.rock (31 May 2021)

Market sensitive announcement just out.

VITAL ACHIEVES FORMAL ACCEPTANCE OF RARE EARTH PRODUCT FROM REETEC

HIGHLIGHTS
• Offtake partner REEtec has formally accepted Vital’s rare earth carbonate sample produced at Nechalacho in March 2021,satisfying Stage 2: Qualification of Specification

• Vital is on track to become Canada’s first and North America’s second rare earth producer with production via ore sorting to commence in June 2021

• Product acceptance from REEtec demonstrates Vital has its processes working correctly at Nechalacho

• Vital will provide REEtec with 1,000 tonnes REO (ex-cerium) per year for five years with the option to increase volume by up to 5,000 tonnes REO per year over 10 years.


----------



## barney (31 May 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> • Offtake partner *REEtec has formally accepted Vital’s rare earth carbonate sample* produced at Nechalacho in March 2021,satisfying Stage 2: Qualification of Specification
> 
> *• Product acceptance from REEtec demonstrates Vital has its processes working correctly at Nechalacho*
> 
> • Vital will provide REEtec with 1,000 tonnes REO (ex-cerium) per year for five years with the option to increase volume by up to 5,000 tonnes REO per year over 10 years.





Thanks Rock.

I have no idea how much the market will reward this SP-wise, but this is the piece of the puzzle that had to be completed to verify everything that has gone on to this point.

Basically, if REEtec are happy to sign the FID, then Vital's carbonate will satisfy any Production facility on the planet

1,000 t/pa  is just the tip of the iceberg 

If I had to take a punt, this news should give the last of the Sellers a chance to liquidate into strength (hopefully)

Then the SP can quietly look after itself over the next 2-3 years.


----------



## waterbottle (31 May 2021)

Here we go


----------



## over9k (31 May 2021)

Up a bit to 058. Not as much as I would have liked but green is green.


----------



## waterbottle (31 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Up a bit to 058. Not as much as I would have liked but green is green.



That's not critical.

What is critical is that they now have a proven, commercialised mine and refining process.

Give a man a fish or teach a man to fish?

I'm holding. The Green shift is real and will happen, globally. The China rebuttal is real and is happening, globally. This company has proven itself on multiple occasions and the potential for further growth is huge here...

Think about the fact that rare earth prices are set in China by Chinese miners. Do you think that market will still exist when people turn away from them and source their metals from a western nation? I certainly don't, at least not in its current capacity.

 There will be two markets: one dictated by Chinese regulations, anaemic, likely obstructed by western environmental policies; and one that is compliant with green, environmentally friendly policies, one that can ensure continuous supply without interruption due to political chest thumping. VML will be in the latter, and my guess will be that that is where the rest of the world will be too.
In the latter case VML is a price setter, not taker as would be the case in the former.


----------



## over9k (31 May 2021)

No disagreement here bottle - I'm holding too


----------



## Sean K (31 May 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The chart for VML is very interesting and being a rare earther and golder in Canada and Tanzania there is a potential blue sky monster here. To be honest Canada worries me more than Tanzania, they are so stiff and woke in that hell of a country one wonders how any driller can make a quid.
> 
> Anyways a chart. VML just chugs along and has retraced to support with recent good volume after some announcement or other. Does it have the legs. Alexander's death last year leaves me distraught as he would know whether to double up or to exit VML, to wait for the next leg up or depart. I'm waiting as it happens. Momentum is good.




Canadians just have it too good and feel guilty so have started batting left landed to share the love. Much like Victorians. 

Hit a floor I reckon.


----------



## barney (31 May 2021)

kennas said:


> Hit a floor I reckon.




Yeah I thought the same thing @kennas  which is why I stumped up for another lazy 100,000 at .053 the other day

Not that I needed anymore   

VML has been de-risked a lot with the last few Announcements, particularly todays.


Now that we have confirmation that their process has been accepted by a top tier chemical Company in REEtec

VML's future profit can now realistically be gauged by how much (bulk) RE carbonate they can produce and sell


The 1000 t/pa with REEtec was/is simply an initial "Pilot Plant" deal to prove that VML management can do what they said they can do

And *they did* do what they said they could do, lol  ... (Can't beat experience!)


The bigger story (in my view) with these fellas will happen down the track when (likely), the Canadian Government, and possibly many other suitors

Will become Offtake partners for VML's high quality carbonate for their Production facilities.

VML do not need to be the greatest end Producer of Rare Earths. They only need to provide the current producers with quality "feedstock"

Geoff Atkins has made it quite clear from the start what Vital are trying to do.

He and Management are simply using their experience to produce "what the West needs" to become competitive with China

I always come back to their statement .. " we will/want to become the next Lynas"

"How's the serenity" 

How's the Serenity


----------



## frugal.rock (31 May 2021)

barney said:


> "How's the serenity"



"We're going to Dunnedoo"

"I reckon Wayne would be proud of us...."

If this pays off in a couple of years Barney, I'm gonna have my very own pool room and buy those overpriced jousting sticks.

Full boar please. 
🐗🐗🐗🐗


----------



## over9k (31 May 2021)

Alternatively, we all end up squatting at barney's place after his stock tip sent us broke


----------



## barney (31 May 2021)

Lol .... I'm happy either way .... 

ie. The "Rock" becomes filthy rich, or he and you (O9K) end up staying at my place drinking all my Carlton Dry, 

And eating all my BBQ sausages for an extended period.  (not happy about that cause I like my sausages!  )

I think @frugal.rock and I have had this "conversation" a while back where he was possibly coming round for 6 months of BBQ's if things went wrong!) 

Things did not go wrong, fortunately, (Mainly because I don't have that many sausages on board )  


Seriously though, this is about as good as a Spec gets (in my view) 

It will not be an overnight success, because anything of substance takes time to mature (1/2/3 years perhaps)

If it fails, I will be more than a little surprised, and will take the loss on the chin as always


----------



## frugal.rock (31 May 2021)

I thought you promised me rissoles?
Cheapskate 
Gotta be some pretty good 
"maggot surprise sawdust mystery bags" snags for me to eat snags.... crap snags are the wurst 🤮

Am not a sausage fest fan....but each to their own.


----------



## barney (31 May 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I thought you promised me rissoles?
> Cheapskate
> Gotta be some pretty good
> "maggot surprise sawdust mystery bags" snags for me to eat snags.... crap snags are the wurst 🤮
> ...



Mmmm I think you maybe right Rock. It was rissoles originally.

Been a tough couple of months ... Chicken snags is the best I can offer.  Or I can do Dominoes pizza every 3rd night. Your choice.


----------



## aus_trader (31 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Ok @Joe Blow  what about this:
> 
> View attachment 125194
> 
> ...



Wow, this thread has really run for pages while I wasn't watching...

Be careful @over9k , our @frugal.rock comes up with some gems every now and then.

I can share that I have profited along side him with Archer Materials Ltd (AXE) in a private trade that I placed and have recently exited. The only reason I was aware of AXE is because of frugi's coverage. I think there was a few others he has picked as winners over the years.

Of course not all are winners (he is not GUD), so every now and then the bud's don't bloom, but as @barney said we have to take it on the chin from that grizzly and not give up.


----------



## barney (31 May 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I think there was a few others he has picked as winners over the years.




Indeed @aus_trader

I 'm sure Froogs would well recall a few months back when he was in a purple patch so deep, that even Ian Gillan and Ritchie Blackmore would have felt slightly opaque in his presence! 

In short: 

Enjoy the profits when the purple ponies are prancing

But, if they throw a shoe, flush them down the loo like a gooey poo!

(Obviously a minor adaptation of "Let your winners run and cut your losers short", lol ...   )


----------



## barney (1 June 2021)

My silliness aside on the LGP Thread

I suspect that VML will likely go back into a trading Range pending any further news.

My mate below is not impressed though. He just spent all his profits on a 6 pack of Whiskas and ate the lot.


----------



## over9k (1 June 2021)

Grabbed a bit more at 059 today barney. Long term trend actually looks good now (break below it had me a bit jittery).


We can now all expect it to drop tomorrow.


----------



## barney (1 June 2021)

over9k said:


> We can now all expect it to drop tomorrow.




It may well do that O-9 but anywhere above mid 5's look tidy at the moment

The next round of news I expect from the lads is the results from the recent drilling of the Tardiff Zones 2 and 3

Tardiff 1 was an absolute standout and I think the market will start to reward the additional potential once the resource upgrade is announced.  T-3 will likely be similar to T1 results and T2 is targeting further extensions I believe

Worth highlighting again the description from boss Geoff in last weeks Resource Ann:  Compelling coming from an RE expert.


_*Vital Metals Managing Director Geoff Atkins said: *_

“The first results of this drilling program have *exceeded our expectations* of the higher grade bastnasite dominated rare earth zones in the Tardiff Zone. 

The *scale of the Tardiff sets the foundations for expansion* of works at Nechalacho into stage 2 of our plans. 

With mining activities currently underway at Stage 1, the results of this drilling program confirm the *enormous potential for Tardiff Zone* 1 to be the foundation of our Stage 2 expansion plans. 

The potential of this deposit is particularly exciting with the deposit remaining *open in all directions*, with the drilling program’s *highest grade and largest intercepts being located along an open boundary*. 

Further with intercept *grades that would be the envy of rare earth projects around the world*, these results confirm the status of Nechalacho amongst the world’s rare earth deposits.”


----------



## waterbottle (3 June 2021)

Ore sorter purchased. Production coming soon


----------



## barney (3 June 2021)

Certainly can't say that the VML boys don't carry a little clout

Funding arrangement with the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency for

$1.26 million dollar loan at *ZERO* interest over 10 years  (50% of Ore Sorter costs)

Obviously the CNEDA can see great benefit to the local community jobs wise etc

Not a massive loan, but it helps keeps VML cash balance in order while they are getting Production in order.


ps Beat me to it @waterbottle


----------



## barney (11 June 2021)

VML could be accused of dragging the chain in the handful of R/E Stocks I keep on a watchlist

Come on boys We all have bills to pay!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 June 2021)

@barney  ... U may be interested in this









						Jack Lifton Hosts USA Rare Earth’s Pini Althaus and Vital Metals’ Geoff Atkins on Critical Materials Corner
					

Don’t miss this exclusive discussion between leading industry experts on the increasingly vital role Critical Materials play in future technologies […]




					investorintel.com


----------



## barney (13 June 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> @barney  ... U may be interested in this
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeah, Interesting @Dona Ferentes 

Tracy Wesloski has (apparently) been a fan of VITAL for a while

I would assume she holds Shares in the Co, but perhaps it is just a Marketing strategy by VML to have her involved??

Nothing sinister in the scenario either way, but given your above "referenced" web link, it indicates that punters ...

Need to pay $25 (US/CAN ... not sure), to be involved in the information at hand

I'd say, either Tracy and Co see the potential here,

Or Geoff and crew at VML realise they need to generate a little "hype" to promote their "potential"

We are working in Northern America after all, and Punters in the US like a bit of "spin"

I have no idea how many Punters will stump up the $25 , but if they do, and like what they see, I won't be surprised to see VML jump a little between next Monday 21st June and the end of the month   

Cheers and thanks for the Link


----------



## waterbottle (16 June 2021)

Confirming the global political trend...









						Canada, EU in raw materials pact to cut China reliance
					

“We as Europeans want to diversify our imports away from producers like China because we want more sustainability, less environmental damage and we want transparency on raw materials.”




					www.mining.com


----------



## aus_trader (16 June 2021)

Au joining the alliance it seems...









__





						Aus-UK FTA 'the most comprehensive deal' Australia has ever done outside of NZ
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## sptrawler (16 June 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Au joining the alliance, it seems.



It certainly isn't getting much airplay in the press, yesterday front page mention, superficial analysis today, I think it is a huge link in regard R&D for BEV integration, Australia will gain a huge technological leap forward IMO.
Maybe the media are being slow to join the dots.


----------



## frugal.rock (16 June 2021)

Took profit on the way back after it went up to .061 quite briefly recently until supply swamped it again.

Will be keeping me eyeballs on it though, I have no doubt it will bash 10 cent this year.
Still holding around 285,000 in vol.






A side note, if I had left the money in OOO instead, I was guaranteed around 800 profit from the 2nd distribution of OOO profits, although I didn't know that until afterwards...


----------



## barney (17 June 2021)

Looking like a smart decision for the moment @frugal.rock 

Share price being hammered a bit more today. Mid 4's looking a possibility at some point if the R/E sector doesn't pick up.  

Might be time to buy some more if it hits 4 though


----------



## aus_trader (17 June 2021)

Looks like the same story across the board with Rare Earth stocks at the moment, share prices heading lower each day...

Only RE stock that I noticed that's doing well is ASM. I got some free ASM shares back when I was an ALK shareholder (see Speculative Stock Portfolio past issues) and ALK spun off it's RE assets to ASM as a new asx listing. I watch in pity as I have sold those ASM shares far too early ... Would've been sitting on six bags as ASM has surpassed $6 now !


----------



## barney (18 June 2021)

Didn't have ASM on my watchlist of RE Stocks @aus_trader   Certainly done/doing well

Interesting point of comparison based purely on the Resources of both Companies at this stage


*ASM* has a very tidy deposit at Dubbo – 

Mineral Resources  Total *75.18 million tonnes* at *0.74% TREO*  + Reserves of *18.90 million tonnes* at *0.735% TREO



VML *has two separate deposits at this stage

The North T deposit hosts a high grade resource of *101,000 tonnes *at* 9.01% LREO *, making it one of the* highest grade rare earth deposits in the world*. (Those were the words of Geoff Atkins, not me) Development of this deposit in currently underway under Stage 1. 

The Tardiff Zone deposit boasts an impressive light rare earth oxides (LREO) resource of *94.7 million tonnes* at *1.46% TREO* 

VML already have double the resource on hand, and a minimum of double the TREO%   Compelling numbers once they get it past the pilot stage


----------



## finicky (18 June 2021)

Interesting rundown of U.S and Australian cooperation over rare earths and cobalt but no financing deals yet. The CCP thugs are also in a dilemma it seems because their artificially sustained low prices to suppress western RE project development becomes powerless when they block export (the ultimate goal of the stealthy warmakers). No supply means that Western consumers will pay whatever it takes for critical domestic production. But can they tool up fast enough? 









						Australia and the US: a rare, rare-earth partnership - Mine Magazine Australia | Yearbook 2020
					

‘Critical minerals’ under Chinese monopoly Minerals covered in the arrangement are labelled critical by several industrial nations due to their use in military and modern technologies, but also because, in some cases, China monopolises around 80% of supply, as is the case with cobalt.According...




					mine.nridigital.com


----------



## over9k (18 June 2021)

Australia is the world's quarry and one of USA's closest allies with basically no way for anyone to physically block the shipments on account of there being no shipping lane choke points. 

There will not be any issues.


----------



## waterbottle (19 June 2021)

And here's the Canadian government's release:

https://www.canada.ca/en/northern-e...development-in-the-northwest-territories.html 

Confirmation that VML's project is being watched closely by government and if successful will likely play a fundamental role in the Canadian (and hopefully by extension the US) green industries.


----------



## barney (23 June 2021)

More good news from the lads today

Stage 2 can use Stage 1 equipment  (Stage 2 should be funded by Stage 1 .... no major drain on Shareholders  )

Adding a single Flotation step looks to bring all the Stage 2 Resource into play with minimal additional cost

The % of TREO will be very high ...... 

Still early days, but there is nothing to fault with their progress/projections/achievements to this point

Market hasn't gotten over excited at this stage, but today's Ann. added a lot more cement to the mixer


----------



## waterbottle (23 June 2021)

Agreed definitely a positive. Let's wait until product created. I'm hoping that the Canadian government will provide more funding as the rhetoric around green energy and China continues to ramp up.


----------



## barney (23 June 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Agreed definitely a positive. Let's wait until product created. I'm hoping that the Canadian government will provide more funding as the rhetoric around green energy and China continues to ramp up.




Yeah, the RE sector is just chugging  at the moment.  VML are doing everything right but EOFY selling when the global markets look "nervous" is par for the course at this end of the spectrum

I don't mind seeing another $200K churn through today given the general market vibe however  

Neutral behavior at the moment could be perceived as a positive in my view, but I am a VML Bull of course


----------



## waterbottle (25 June 2021)

What Canada should do to secure its own supply of critical minerals — report
					

A report presented before the House of Commons states that it is time for the Canadian government to step up its critical minerals game.




					www.mining.com
				




Political wheels are turning. VML is well positioned to capture any additional stimulus


----------



## barney (29 June 2021)

My monthly comp pick.

Chart tells the story .... Not much Rare Earths interest at the moment

Hopefully the start of the new FY will give the Spec end a bit of a lift


----------



## waterbottle (6 July 2021)

Production has started, VML has become the first Canadian producer of rare earths. 

Well done team. First founder effect is not to be ignored, especially when there is a political appetite for critical minerals


----------



## barney (6 July 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Production has started




Yes WB.  Another milestone for the Co. and right on schedule as everything else has been to date.  Very professional team.


----------



## waterbottle (7 July 2021)

Vital Metals becomes Canada’s first rare earth producer
					

Australian company has begun production at its Nechalacho project in the northwest territories.




					www.mining.com
				




Media have now picked up the story. Good to see VML being mentioned with the likes of Lynas and emphasising a captured market. 

Exciting times for VML and hopefully the management team have the same ideas in mind. Personally I think there are a few opportunities here:

1. They become a takeover target
2. They pivot into other critical minerals I. E. Lithium, cobalt, nickel
3. They expand their rare earth territory (buyout Avalon metals stake or some other rare earth deposit)


----------



## waterbottle (13 July 2021)

VMLs website has changed - now they're mentioning they're Canada's first producer.

Looks like orders aren't going through either. Trading halt?


----------



## barney (13 July 2021)

The confidence coming from Geoff Atkins is unmissable  

Below link to recent Interview with Will Canty, CEO from Boardroom Media  (4 Days ago)





ps Trades going through ok here @waterbottle


----------



## barney (13 July 2021)

Interview with Will Canty continued.  

Assuming the Markets in general remain stable,  its not difficult to see VML's SP increasing exponentially over the next few years.


----------



## barney (13 July 2021)

Older Presentation from May 2021  

Explains in Laymans terms what the Company is up to.


----------



## spratty84 (13 July 2021)

barney said:


> Interview with Will Canty continued.
> 
> Assuming the Markets in general remain stable,  its not difficult to see VML's SP increasing exponentially over the next few years.




Just bought another parcel today, fingers crossed things are looking very promising.


----------



## barney (13 July 2021)

spratty84 said:


> Just bought another parcel today, fingers crossed things are looking very promising.



Yeah agree @spratty84 

I think anyone with a medium/long term positive view regarding Rare Earths can not go wrong with these lads.

The Directors of VML could easily turn up and run operations at Mt Weld tomorrow if they got a call from Lynas, lol  

You cant beat experience, and you also can't buy it.  Pretty hard to find fault with anything they have done over the last year or so. 

They promise and deliver every time on time.  Rare in Specland   Long term hold for me.


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

Mind me asking how many shares you have @barney? I'm thinking about a topup.


----------



## spratty84 (13 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Mind me asking how many shares you have @barney? I'm thinking about a topup.



Not directed at me but i rounded my holding up to 200400 today


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

That's quite a bit of skin in the game spratty. Or did you buy early?


----------



## spratty84 (13 July 2021)

over9k said:


> That's quite a bit of skin in the game spratty. Or did you buy early?



Got some early on, probably a bit to keen lol but honestly i can see a big run on rare earths in the medium to longer term future and vml is looking one of the more promising prospects.


----------



## barney (13 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Mind me asking how many shares you have @barney? I'm thinking about a topup.




Hi @over9k 

I would never want to sway anyone  else's investing decisions based on my own "unorthodox" way of doing things 

However, I can say honestly that my most recent purchase of VML of 100,000 shares at 5.3 cents (documented) was a small top up.

My medium term plan has always been for VML to get to 10 cents (hopefully + 10 cents) and hold value at that level

At that point I will re-assess the next phase

So in essence, I am looking/hoping for a 90% return from present with what I consider fair/low  risk. 

Time required = 12-18 months  ... I could be totally wrong of course

Cheers M8, and good luck no matter what you decide.


----------



## waterbottle (13 July 2021)

Agree with the comments above. 

Thanks for the videos @barney , they reinforce my thoughts about a future expansion plan for VML.

I think it's critical to reinforce the fact that what VML is doing here isn't just digging holes in the ground and producing ore - they're creating a supply chain, as alluded to in the video, that will form part of the critical infrastructure for the electrification of the Western hemisphere. More importantly, they're now the first producer in Canada to have done so and are only one of 2 (or maybe 3) companies that have successfully managed to do so in North America. They're well capitalised with a management team that has a proven track-record, both whilst working for a competitor (Lynas) and over the past year as they've nurtured Vital Metals.

Geopolitically, the Western world continues to turn away from China. The US under Trump has identified critical minerals that must be secured (rare earths included) and have recognised Canada as a potential source. Likewise, the EU has a similar policy and also identified Canada as a potential source for rare metals. 
VML is well-positioned to profit as these policy changes continue to develop. They have an established off-take agreement with an EU-member state (REEtec). They have received funding from the Canadian government, who also recognises the importance of rare earths and securing critical minerals. They will have a future processing plant constructed & positioned literally next-door to a government-funded research institution (Saskatoon Research Council), with the latter being funded by the Canadian government to develop their own rare earth processing facility & methods.

Economically, the price of rare earths have admittedly taken a beating over the past 6 months. Whether or not that trend will continue is unknown. My thoughts are that current prices (as set by Shanghai) will be irrelevant once the Western world transitions away from China for its supply of critical minerals. 
In fact it's happening with Lithium - a metal critical for EV batteries. The financial world has recognised the increased demand & importance of lithium through the introduction of futures contracts, introduced by CME only as of May 2021. 
The potential exists for a market ex-China, although I suspect that the CCCP will try to maintain its status as a price setter via some manner of market manipulation until it no longer can (and why wouldn't they considering their 80% stranglehold on the market).


----------



## frugal.rock (14 July 2021)

waterbottle said:


> electrification of the Western hemisphere.



I can't stop laughing.... 😅

I say "Poppycock" !
(best said with a South Afrikaan eccent.)


----------



## barney (14 July 2021)

waterbottle said:


> - they're creating a supply chain, as alluded to in the video,






waterbottle said:


> They have an established off-take agreement with an EU-member state (REEtec).




Nicely abbreviated above @waterbottle

Just on the Off-take, it's also worth noting again for anyone that doesn't realise, that the arrangement with REEtec is a *shared* deal where both Companies* split all aspects of the supply chain profits* once each takes out their initial "cost of  production".  This is a one of a kind deal where both Companies benefit from the others abilities.

I also like the way Geoff Atkins is indicating planning/implementation of Stage 2 ramp up is already on the agenda even before our first ore has been processed (end of year) in Stage 1 (Demonstration Plant - 1000 t/annum to REEtec etc.)

Long way to go yet before any profits will be generated but so far everything is going to plan.  In a perfect world, we get the Saskatoon plant up and running, REEtec confirm the quality of our Product over a period of time and increase their Offtake amount to double/triple/more?

Once that is achieved (12-18 months but that is just a guess), Stage 2 production could ramp up really quickly and that's when real profits will start to be generated.  

In the short term, we have a lot of SOI which need to be absorbed at various profit levels before any SP rises can follow.  If 5 cents or higher continues to hold/be accumulated, all is fine.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 July 2021)

barney said:


> However, I can say honestly that my most recent purchase of VML of 100,000 shares at 5.3 cents (documented) was a small top up.





over9k said:


> Mind me asking how many shares you have @barney? I'm thinking about a topup.



You're like a politician....
an answer that doesn't answer the question... 😜🤡


----------



## barney (14 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> You're like a politician....
> an answer that doesn't answer the question... 😜🤡



Lol .... I thought I did quite well   I was truthful, mildly cryptic, but did not kiss and tell

Politicians aren't that smart Rock, lol


----------



## Beaches (14 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> You're like a politician....
> an answer that doesn't answer the question... 😜🤡



The question should never have been asked
.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 July 2021)

Beaches said:


> The question should never have been asked
> .



Ah, it's all beer, bourbon, scotch etc and BBQ chicken sausages around here.... no harm asking awkward questions of others whilst  shooting the breeze standing around the BBQ... Barney wandered off muttering something about needing to tune his
G string or something or other... 🤣
Chicken snags are burnt again...


----------



## over9k (14 July 2021)

Beaches said:


> The question should never have been asked
> .



Rubbish. It's a good gauge of just how much digging someone has done. I'm not going to take seriously someone that only has a thousand bucks in something. Hence why when I make a small buy I make a point of saying if I just bought a minimum trade ($500) or whatever in many of the pure degen spec threads out there. 


But 100x that? 

Yeah, then I know you've actually looked into it properly.


----------



## barney (14 July 2021)

Beaches said:


> The question should never have been asked




Nah its fine @Beaches but I do appreciate your sentiment/respect of privacy  



over9k said:


> if I just bought a minimum trade ($500) or whatever  ........  But 100x that?




@over9k   I understand why you asked and have no problem with the question, but it would be wrong of me to give specifics just in case it caused someone (not yourself) to make an Investment decision based on the Volume of my holding, rather than their own research, so to speak.  If they did that and the SP tanked, neither they nor I would be happy, lol  

ps. For the record and my own credibility, I can cover your above mathematical equation but cannot divulge specifics  



Back to Rare Earths:  Yesterday's general uptick across the board was reversed today unfortunately. 

Bell weather Lynas was down and VML still has Supply to deal with by the looks  

Above 5 cents is still a good benchmark for the moment in my view as long as it holds


----------



## frugal.rock (26 July 2021)

Expected a bit of rub off from Lynas today (up ~9%), not forthcoming as of yet...
Volumes have been a bit subdued of late. 
Consolidating for the next news pop?
Still holding.


----------



## barney (26 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Expected a bit of rub off from Lynas today (up ~9%),




Kind of expected the same Rock.  Sometimes the Specs follow a day or two later than the big fish so I'm still happy to see Lynas on the move

It looks to me like the traders have left the VML building for easier fish to fry in the short term (this is starting to sound s bit fishy, lol)

Short term opinion on (the messy ) Chart below . 

Not too concerned re the S/term but definitely like to see some Accumulation above the recent higher Low


----------



## spratty84 (26 July 2021)

barney said:


> Kind of expected the same Rock.  Sometimes the Specs follow a day or two later than the big fish so I'm still happy to see Lynas on the move
> 
> It looks to me like the traders have left the VML building for easier fish to fry in the short term (this is starting to sound s bit fishy, lol)
> 
> ...





barney said:


> Kind of expected the same Rock.  Sometimes the Specs follow a day or two later than the big fish so I'm still happy to see Lynas on the move
> 
> It looks to me like the traders have left the VML building for easier fish to fry in the short term (this is starting to sound s bit fishy, lol)
> 
> ...






barney said:


> Kind of expected the same Rock.  Sometimes the Specs follow a day or two later than the big fish so I'm still happy to see Lynas on the move
> 
> It looks to me like the traders have left the VML building for easier fish to fry in the short term (this is starting to sound s bit fishy, lol)
> 
> ...



T


barney said:


> Kind of expected the same Rock.  Sometimes the Specs follow a day or two later than the big fish so I'm still happy to see Lynas on the move
> 
> It looks to me like the traders have left the VML building for easier fish to fry in the short term (this is starting to sound s bit fishy, lol)
> 
> ...



Today was interesting for rare earths, my holding in ntu had a nice nudge along today but i saw it as an opportunity to add a parcel to my vml holdings now im up to 500500 which is enough for me.


----------



## barney (26 July 2021)

spratty84 said:


> Today was interesting for rare earths, my holding in ntu had a nice nudge along today but i saw it as an opportunity to add a parcel to my vml holdings now im up to 500500 which is enough for me.




Yeah *NTU* had a solid + 7%   *REE* was the standout with +16%  With *Lynas* at +10%  it was a big day for the R/E sector in general

*VML* got a late push up on low volume but nothing like the others unfortunately. 



*REE* had a tidy 47% resource upgrade 19th July Ann for a total* 18.8 M/t @ 1.15 TREO   (Market Cap = $45-50 million)


VML*  Stage 1 smaller North T deposit has a high grade resource of *101,000 tonnes at 9.01% LREO* 

*VML* Stage 2 "Upper Zone" has a  (LREO) resource of* 94.7 M/t @ 1.46 TREO   (Market Cap = $210 million)*


Mathematically that has the market valuing REE and VML at similar ratios after today. 

Given the early Production time line  Plus the ex-Lynas factor  Plus the REEtec offtake partnership Plus the Canadian Gov support etc etc

I think VML will eventually get the edge over the other Spec R/E stocks.  Holding patiently in the mean time.


----------



## frugal.rock (26 July 2021)

barney said:


> It looks to me like the traders have left the VML building for easier fish to fry in the short term (this is starting to sound s bit fishy, lol)



I disagree...
Saw distinct flush out trading action today.
Buying at 0.05, then price dropping back to 0.049 (ultra low vol) to leech out more selling suckers on 0.05
"Predatory" consolidation...


----------



## barney (26 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I disagree...
> Saw distinct flush out trading action today.
> Buying at 0.05, then price dropping back to 0.049 (ultra low vol) to leech out more selling suckers on 0.05
> "Predatory" consolidation...




You could well be right Rock. (I hope so

My comment may have been biased by VML lagging the other big risers early in the afternoon,

And me becoming an impatient grumpy old man, lol

The 5 cent level has appeared to have been re-populated consistently over the last few days as well, but if that finally gets gapped and we get back into the mid 5 region, I'll be with you 100%

I'm long term on this of course so as long as the recent swing Lows hold as support, you can call me Larry  

Back under 4.5 anytime from now on and you can call me a Doctor!  lol.


----------



## barney (31 July 2021)

My pick in the monthly comp.

Bit of selling into the Quarterly results yesterday. Everything still going to plan but  cash is getting burnt quickly with the current ramp up 

A few punters still happy to cash in their chips which is totally normal. Likely a slow burner from here but you never know.


----------



## frugal.rock (3 August 2021)

ASX / Media Announcement
3 August 2021

*Vital intersects high-grade REO in Tardiff Zones 2 & 3 including  
outside existing resource at Nechalacho *

Highlights
● Vital completed 10 holes across Tardiff Zones 2 and 3 to define a Stage 2 Mine Plan for Nechalacho rare earths project in Canada, with all holes hitting extensive mineralisation

● Drilling at Tardiff Zones 2 and 3 intersected thick zones with total rare earth oxides grades above 2% TREO

● Best results from Zone 2 from the 5 drill holes include:
○ 25.1m at 3.03% TREO
○ 19.0m at 2.05% TREO

● All Zone 2 intersections are within 75m of surface with the best results in the western most drill holes, *indicating high-grade TREO is open to the west *

● Zone 2 high-grade TREO intercepts are outside the Upper Zone Mineral Resource, indicating potential for an additional high-grade TREO resource in the Tardiff area

● The remaining 5 holes drilled at Zone 3 also hit shallow, high grade REO intersections

● Best results from Zone 3 include:
○ 51.0m at 2.13% TREO
○ 36.7m at 1.96% TREO

● All 5 holes drilled in Zone 3 confirmed the high grades previously encountered with *high- grade mineralisation open in all directions *

● With high grade mineralisation remaining open at all zones, Vital will undertake additional drilling at Tardiff to delineate the boundaries of the three Tardiff high-grade zones in addition to identifying the relationships between the zones, including whether they are in fact connected.

● Previously announced metallurigcal results from Tardiff indicate that this bastnaesite mineralision can be processed through the same plant being constructed to process North
T ore


That's some pretty good news right there...should or rather hopefully give the SP a solid boost.


----------



## barney (3 August 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> That's some pretty good news right there...should or rather hopefully give the SP a solid boost.




Certainly is good news Rock.  The resource was already substantial but these results make it look potentially way bigger

The fact that the Co is "pre"-developing Stage 2 before Stage 1 has produced its first carbonate tells us they are keen to ramp this up asap

One of the highest grade R/E deposits in the world with possibly the lowest production costs. The market should eventually reward them  

I think we are at least 6-12 months away from any serious re-rate given the amount of work still to be completed but so far all is going to plan

Still Supply hitting the 5 cent level but Volume is fairly low for an Announcement this good.  Mexican stand off and maybe a bit more argy-bargy to to test Support levels over the next few weeks given the lack of Buyers?


----------



## barney (3 August 2021)

PS.  In an ideal world, the scenario you suggested the other day where the "5 centers"  kept pushing it down to mop up the 48 and 49 ers all day will happen today and then the 50-52 level will get cleaned up at the close

We can only hope that is the case


----------



## waterbottle (3 August 2021)

Great news, sounds like we may end up with a resource upgrade in the future. 
Not sure when the filing will take place though - try do make reference in their conclusion to drilling commencing during the northern winter, so perhaps next year?


----------



## aus_trader (4 August 2021)

Having a little rally today. I think it's about time junior RE's started following the senior LYC...


----------



## barney (6 August 2021)

Production going to plan. 

The Ore Sorter is working efficiently turning a low grade stock piled ore into + 35% TREO in one pass ..... excellent


----------



## barney (6 August 2021)




----------



## waterbottle (6 August 2021)

Well done to the team. 

Excellent new so far - production going better than expected + potential resource upgrade. 

The only way this gets better is if they manage to strike other minerals (I. E. Lithium) or they receive a take over offer


----------



## aus_trader (6 August 2021)

In terms of the size of the deposit I think it's good they are doing further drilling/exploration to expand... the grade is one of the highest I've seen in the Rare Earth space that I've been following.

I am surprised how quickly they got to mining the material from discovery. Could expect better things from here as they increase production and increase resources/reserves. 🤞 

Also surprised how early @barney unearthed this little gem, wish I put in a little minimum stake as a high risk/high reward play back then. Better late than never I suppose... For disclosure I hold a small quantity and still just in the green despite the price sliding lower over the last few months.


----------



## barney (6 August 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Also surprised how early @barney unearthed this little gem, wish I put in a little minimum stake as a high risk/high reward play back then. Better late than never I suppose... For disclosure I hold a small quantity and still just in the green despite the price sliding lower over the last few months.




Glad you to see you are at least still in the green Aus 
--------------------------------------------------------


Re today, I like to compare the Trades/VWAP with the 1 minute price action on decent up-days.

The  1 minute chart suggested the Traders were pushing it up on the Bid and Selling into the fresh buyers at 2-3 points higher (normal behavior at this end of the market )


If that is correct we now have a round of fresh Buyers at the 058 level and above  (VWAP today was about 0.0585)

In a perfect world, the Traders will get involved again next week/sometime soon to rinse and repeat todays trading,

Which in turn will help we long term holders cement a new Support level and sleep a little easier   ...

Or not, depending on your caffeine intake, lol  


We don't live in a perfect world of course   but even if today's Traders have left the building, in the short term,

There is no denying that VML is definitely on many punter's radars.

Below figures showing the Volume/Trading at each price level.  Nothing to dislike until proven otherwise.   



VML SHARE TRADES 6th AUGUST 2021PriceVolumeChangeValueNumberTotal Shares at each PRICEof Trades6.1970,0000.05$59,17036.160,0000.1$3,66016.125,0000.1$1,52526.1930,9560.1$56,788146.11,013,5550.1$61,82676.1862,2760.1$52,598123,861,7876.0530,0000.05$1,81516.0530,0000.05$1,81516516,6000.1$30,99676159,2000.1$9,55236250,0000.1$15,000461,054,1310.05$63,2478696,0000.1$5,7602670,0000.1$4,20016150,0000.1$9,00032,355,9315.9949,9960.1$56,049275.927,0000.1$1,59325.9288,3030.1$17,00995.9313,9090.1$18,52055.9718,9000.1$42,415115.93,146,5960.1$185,649425.9100,0000.1$5,90015.93,088,6190.1$182,228308,633,3235.851710.05$1025.869,1750.1$4,01215.8118,8130.1$6,89135.855,5550.1$3,22215.8885,3730.05$51,351125.8880,0000.1$51,040145.81,325,3550.05$76,87095.81,371,3210.05$79,536145.8164,3830.05$9,53445.81,307,1650.05$75,815185.81,974,4370.1$114,517135.88,0730.1$46815.820,0000.1$1,16015.8156,9000.1$9,10045.8388,9830.1$22,56145.87,0170.1$40615.81780.1$1015.8117,5430.1$6,81735.869,9910.05$4,05935.8150,0000.05$8,70025.825,0000.1$1,45015.81,186,8620.1$68,837185.8142,2060.1$8,24735.81,220,0000.1$70,76085.8867,9000.05$50,338712,512,4015.75434,4100.05$24,97875.7590,0000.05$5,17515.7510,0000.05$57515.7520,0000.05$1,15025.7526,1500.05$1,50315.7530,0090.05$1,72515.7550,0000.05$2,87515.7550,0000.05$2,87515.75120,0000.05$6,90025.7951,7330.1$54,248115.724,2500.05$1,38225.720,0000.1$1,14015.7100,0000.1$5,70015.7882,9000.1$50,32565.7845,8390.1$48,212135.7319,4510.1$18,20885.735,0870.1$1,99915.7150,0000.1$8,55025.7200,0000.1$11,40015.7250,1210.1$14,25685.7392,7780.05$22,38835.7300,0000.1$17,10055.71,513,1000.1$86,246175.7600,000$34,20087,415,8285.6268,620$15,0423268,620


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 August 2021)

Should have paid more attention when you were talking about that 5.0c ceiling 

Shattered. 📈💥


----------



## barney (9 August 2021)

Tectonic employed as Advisory service.  20 million Options issued. 

I like one of the vesting conditions for half the options ... VML attains a $1 Billion  market cap. That would be nice, lol.

SP ticking higher on low Volume ..... positive at the moment.


----------



## barney (10 August 2021)

Interesting Announcement this morning following yesterday's "Tectonic" arrangement.

VML to make an "Acquisition"   The mind boggles.

We have enough raw materials for many years of production already, so speculation makes me wonder whether Avalon might be up for sale?

That would be big news. I think AWX market cap is around $60 million (AUD)  Even if VML paid $100 million for AWX, it would be a steal given the HREE in the lower zones at Nechalacho. 

I could be totally off the mark, but stranger things have come to pass


----------



## waterbottle (10 August 2021)

Fan


barney said:


> Interesting Announcement this morning following yesterday's "Tectonic" arrangement.
> 
> VML to make an "Acquisition"   The mind boggles.
> 
> ...



Fantastic news! 

Hopefully it is Avalon mines - it would make sense as they have already prepped the site! If they do indeed acquire another rare earth site then they would become a formidable ex-China mine. 

My only regret is not purchasing more


----------



## bullriding (10 August 2021)

Article in the AFR: https://www.afr.com/street-talk/vit...y-quebec-rare-earths-projects-20210809-p58hbe


----------



## waterbottle (10 August 2021)

bullriding said:


> Article in the AFR: https://www.afr.com/street-talk/vit...y-quebec-rare-earths-projects-20210809-p58hbe



Do you have a non pay walled version?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 August 2021)

The ...
 target is understood to be a 68 per cent stake in the Kipawa Rare Earth project and 100 per cent of the Zues Rare Earth project, both located in Quebec and owned by TSXV-listed Quebec Precious Metals Corp.

Vital Metals is expected to pay about $8.5 million for the projects, and try to turn them into producing assets.


----------



## sptrawler (10 August 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The ...
> target is understood to be a 68 per cent stake in the Kipawa Rare Earth project and 100 per cent of the Zues Rare Earth project, both located in Quebec and owned by TSXV-listed Quebec Precious Metals Corp.
> 
> Vital Metals is expected to pay about $8.5 million for the projects, and try to turn them into producing assets.



I wonder if they are going to use script, or some of the $35m cash at hand?


----------



## waterbottle (10 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if they are going to use script, or some of the $35m cash at hand?



Will probably be another cap raise. 

Time to research the acquisitions.... On first glance I'm confused as to why they are acquiring these two mines given distance from NWT and Saskatchewan


----------



## aus_trader (10 August 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Will probably be another cap raise.
> 
> Time to research the acquisitions.... On first glance I'm confused as to why they are acquiring these two mines given distance from NWT and Saskatchewan



Maybe they want to consolidate in the North American / Canadian region as RE stocks in that space is getting some attention of late.


----------



## waterbottle (10 August 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Maybe they want to consolidate in the North American / Canadian region as RE stocks in that space is getting some attention of late.



Yes perhaps. Particularly given the geopolitical moves and the recent IPCC report on climate change.


----------



## sptrawler (10 August 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Yes perhaps. Particularly given the geopolitical moves and the recent IPCC report on climate change.



May be the case of an educated gamble, if the sector takes off, the big players will move into the space and cheap buys will disappear. 
Just have to be careful they don't buy a bunny, or overstretch.


----------



## aus_trader (10 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> May be the case of an educated gamble, if the sector takes off, the big players will move into the space and cheap buys will disappear.
> Just have to be careful they don't buy a bunny, or overstretch.



Although my stake is very small, I hope that it's a well thought out purchase with proper due diligence...  🤞


----------



## Beaches (10 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if they are going to use script, or some of the $35m cash at hand?



From the Fin Review article:

_Vital Metals is expected to pay about $8.5 million for the projects, and try to turn them into producing assets._​​
Unlikely to want a cap raise for this


----------



## barney (10 August 2021)

Beaches said:


> From the Fin Review article:
> 
> _Vital Metals is expected to pay about $8.5 million for the projects, and try to turn them into producing assets._​
> Unlikely to want a cap raise for this




Yeah agree @Beaches   $8.5 million is not a big tax on the Company at the moment.  More research to do yet but I'd guess a combination of Shares/Options and Cash to do the deal

Depends on the Sellers current circumstances.  Geoff and Co have been spot on with picking value so far so I'd expect the price they are paying is at a well discounted rate.

My other thought is that Wilgu Hill has probably thrown up too many "political" hurdles to be worth the hassle

So they may have decided to look elsewhere for "Stage 2" back up.

Pity it wasn't a T/O of Avalon but that was a bit of wishful thinking on my behalf


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The ...
> target is understood to be a 68 per cent stake in the Kipawa Rare Earth project and 100 per cent of the Zues Rare Earth project, both located in Quebec and owned by TSXV-listed Quebec Precious Metals Corp.
> 
> Vital Metals is expected to pay about $8.5 million for the projects, and try to turn them into producing assets.




Good deal by the VML boys as expected.  $150,000 deposit and $2.35 million for the first 12 months. Staggered payment gives control with minimum cash stress.


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

QPM decision certainly being appreciated by the Market.so far tonight.

Hopefully VML will receive similar appreciation when the TH is lifted


----------



## wabullfrog (11 August 2021)

VML is back trading again, @barney will be eating steaks again soon if initial bounce is any indication .



			https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/VML/02405866.pdf


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> VML is back trading again, @barney will be eating steaks again soon if initial bounce is any indication .




Lol .... Praise the Lord ...  I was starting to get tired of these


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 August 2021)

barney said:


> Lol .... Praise the Lord ...  I was starting to get tired of these
> 
> View attachment 128854



Up 9.836%

I was hoping for at least 9.837%

gg


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

This has given the fringe holders and Traders a chance to liquidate of course. Plenty of Supply hit the highs a while ago.

Hopefully the Open of 067 will hold by the Close.  As I typed 067 got wiped to the sell side ... Not unexpected


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 August 2021)

barney said:


> This has given the fringe holders and Traders a chance to liquidate of course. Plenty of Supply hit the highs a while ago.
> 
> Hopefully the Open of 067 will hold by the Close.  As I typed 067 got wiped to the sell side ... Not unexpected



Agree. That is breakeven for many chartists just on my reckoning. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 August 2021)

barney said:


> Lol .... ..  I was starting to get tired of these



As was your immediate family.  (one upside of lockdown, keeping our distance)


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> As was your immediate family.  (one upside of lockdown, keeping our distance)



Lol Indeed DF


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

My short/medium term chart assessment.  Not all beer and skittles but definitely behaving as expected. 

Traders Selling into the gap - There will be punters who have bought the "enthusiasm" but may now get squeezed a little by the profit takers/sellers etc.  All normal given the recent Chart action, and nothing sinister in it.

Today's late trading to the Close will tell the real story. 

I'm hoping to see accumulation throughout the day, then a bump of a couple of points higher into the Close. We shall see what eventuates.


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

Just hanging around to get my "Jab" later this arv so amusing myself drawing pictures   

1 Minute Chart backs up my above thoughts - A Close at 068 or better would have a good look about it. Back under the Gap, not so good.


----------



## over9k (11 August 2021)

Yep, VML doing well lately. Glad I topped up (for now).


----------



## bullriding (11 August 2021)

barney said:


> Just hanging around to get my "Jab" later this arv so amusing myself drawing pictures
> 
> 1 Minute Chart backs up my above thoughts - A Close at 068 or better would have a good look about it. Back under the Gap, not so good.



An average looking 0.067 finish to the day


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

barney said:


> Hopefully the Open of 067 will hold by the Close.





bullriding said:


> An average looking 0.067 finish to the day




Overall not too bad in the overall scheme of things Bull  (bear in mind I wear rosy glasses with this stock) 






Ok maybe I drink rose coloured glasses, but similar effect!


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

Being a bit more sensible,  My take away points from current price action:


1)  Held the gap-open price of 067  (good)

2)  Gap was technically filled back to 063 from Monday, and Monday was also a healthy up-day  (positive)

3)  Similar High Volume to 26th May but still closed 2 ticks higher (good)

4)  VWAP was a whisker over .067 (the gap-up Open) on High Volume 

5)  + $11 million traded (Plenty of punters happy to change hands at the VWAP)  (good given the last few days rise)

6)  Fundamentals have improved after today.  Company continues to deliver results


Now, all my apparent positivity (unsolicited ramping ) aside, 

Obviously some form of retracement after today is a reasonable expectation 

Hopefully .063 is now the Support benchmark until further developments come to hand, but realistically, 

If .060 holds for the short term, it will look pretty normal.

I'm looking much further forward than currently.  News later in the year of the "Extraction Plant" being successfully commissioned  is something to look forward to, but we are still in very early days to see just where this can go.


----------



## over9k (11 August 2021)

So a classic bounce followed by slow melt until something makes it bounce again.


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

Given I backed out of having my "jab" today (had the sneezes etc last few days so didn't want to tempt fate etc.)

I have had  extra time to re-attach my rose- colored glasses so I can "ramble on" about why VML is the trade of a lifetime, lol 

In reality, it has done brilliantly, but I do expect some "consolidation" (another word for frustration if you hold 


With my glasses on however, there is some chance (assuming the US/Canadian investors get on board)

That VML could possibly break the 8 cent shackle and forge higher earlier than expected. 

I actually really don't mind that much as I am hanging in for 10 cents +  but my obsession stops me annoying my wife!  Win-win!


----------



## barney (11 August 2021)

over9k said:


> So a classic bounce followed by slow melt until something makes it bounce again.



Yeah possibly so O-9

Although given how these chaps are delivering on a regular basis, I prefer to hold rather than trying to trade the dips


----------



## sptrawler (11 August 2021)

Another leg up for rare earths, in the U.S, even the doubters must be starting to think.








						US House bill would give tax credit for rare earth magnets
					

The bill is the latest in a string of U.S. legislation attempting to cobble together a national strategy to produce more lithium, rare earths and other strategic minerals.




					www.mining.com


----------



## aus_trader (11 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Another leg up for rare earths, in the U.S, even the doubters must be starting to think.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Great article @sptrawler , I also saw VML purchase covered on that site...









						Canada’s first rare earth miner in trading halt on expansion rumours
					

Vital Metals is reportedly in final talks to buy two projects in Quebec, one of which may be the world’s fourth largest dysprosium deposit.




					www.mining.com


----------



## sptrawler (11 August 2021)

I must admit, I'm tempted to dip in for more, what is the old saying "faint heart, never won anything", or something along those lines. 🤣


----------



## aus_trader (13 August 2021)

Having a good day 😸


----------



## barney (13 August 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Having a good day 😸




Indeed Aus.

The boys have come at it after lunch.  Hopefully its not the tequila talkin, lol.


----------



## barney (16 August 2021)

The "standard" Inside Day today by the looks.  Would have been a bit unusual if we didn't have that

Be nice to see the 070 hold as an "accumulation support level" over the next couple of days

If not, 068 is still in the ballpark but under that in the short term would not be ideal.


----------



## barney (17 August 2021)

barney said:


> If not, 068 is still in the ballpark but under that in the short term would not be ideal.




Just home to see a fair bit of "Bear" in the market today, including VML

Not an attractive couple of days but it is what it is

When you mix punters holding profits with a little fear, things can get ugly fairly quickly

Have to find that can opener again. Beans might be back on the menu   060 looks on the cards unless something changes.


----------



## barney (23 August 2021)

barney said:


> * 060 looks on the cards unless something changes.*




And so it came to pass  

Now that we have that out of the way, the Market Depth looks very thin. Be interesting to see if much Supply comes in from off screen

I'm backing another push this week. Back above 062 is the first step.  (Hourly Chart below)


----------



## barney (23 August 2021)

barney said:


> *I'm backing another push this week. Back above 062 is the first step.*




Positive price action today was on Low Volume.  Good but not definitive

VWAP a little over 064  with the late push higher coming at the Close  (Inside day tomorrow likely?)

All looks fairly normal     (Hourly Chart showing today's move back above 062 )


----------



## barney (23 August 2021)

You tube video posted 24 hours ago. 

Nice update up of the Company's position/strategy by MD Geoff Atkins.

Impressive what they have achieved in a short space of time 


Geoff Atkins update VML


----------



## spratty84 (23 August 2021)

Cheers barney great interview


----------



## aus_trader (23 August 2021)

Great stuff @barney I really like their thinking in that they got the "proof of concept" plant up and running in a very short time and once that's given the confidence, it's over to scaling up...  

The recent acquisition should help to increase the mine life and add to the existing resources I think. So that addresses the little concern I had before with respect to the size of the existing resource.


----------



## waterbottle (10 September 2021)

Looks like the share price has fizzled out over the past few weeks.

Although VML are due for some sort of market release soon...


----------



## aus_trader (10 September 2021)

I think the whole RE sector is down.

ARR, NTU, REE, ASM even LYC are down.

Anyone looked into the sector and found any other rare gems other than VML (I hold some VML shares thanks to @barney doing the research and sharing with ASF members here).

Not to take the limelight away from VML in any way, I will continue to hold till @barney starts to cash in his chips or I need the money for an emergency. But I thought to use this market downturn to stuff the Christmas stocking with maybe one other RE stock, or two 

...umm for a bit for diversity I suppose.


----------



## barney (13 September 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I will continue to hold till @barney starts to cash in his chips or I need the money




I traded a few early on when accumulating Mr @aus_trader  but still holding all my chips from the last year or so.

I still have 10 cents pegged as my initial target level. May cash in 10% at that stage to pay some bills but also may not depending on PA.  

6 cent Support level should hold but nothing is set in stone with all the world jitters at the moment

I'm hoping for a short "accumulation" phase followed by a fairly orderly move back into the + 7's not too far down the track, but I am carrying a fair amount of bullish bias 🐂 

Chart is certainly only plodding with recent Sellers around the 7 cent level but based on potential alone, it should rotate upwards. (time frame obviously unknown)


----------



## sptrawler (20 September 2021)

Positive update from VML, all looking good IMO.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02423336-6A1051010?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## aus_trader (20 September 2021)

Looks good, but just trying to understand the mining operation. Announcement says mining op's to be completed as below...






Why is that ?

Is the defined ore already mined out and waiting for further drilling ?  Or they mined only a portion to demonstrate "proof of concept" before scaling up ? Or something different altogether ?


----------



## barney (20 September 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Looks good, but just trying to understand the mining operation. Announcement says mining op's to be completed as below... Why is that ?




Its all according to the plan @aus_trader 

They basically dig up and stockpile enough ore (in a couple of months) to feed the Extraction Plant in Saskatoon and that is where the profits start to be generated. 

Don't quote me but I think  3months of "digging" will see them with enough ore till into 2023.  I'll see if I can find the details of that later

Wobbly market looks like putting pressure on most stocks at the moment unfortunately


----------



## sptrawler (20 September 2021)

barney said:


> Its all according to the plan @aus_trader
> 
> They basically dig up and stockpile enough ore (in a couple of months) to feed the Extraction Plant in Saskatoon and that is where the profits start to be generated.
> 
> ...



Where they are mining it is a very small operation, would the fact winter will be starting have a bearing?
I also would expect the mining operation to be scaled up, once the Saskatoon plant is commissioned and up to capacity, in 2022?


----------



## barney (20 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Where they are mining it is a very small operation, would the fact winter will be starting have a bearing?
> I also would expect the mining operation to be scaled up, once the Saskatoon plant is commissioned and up to capacity, in 2022?




Absolutely re the winter @sptrawler   Starts to cool down after September

November - March they'd burn too much gas trying to keep warm, lol.


----------



## aus_trader (20 September 2021)

Thanks @barney and @sptrawler, it all makes sense now.


----------



## sptrawler (20 September 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Thanks @barney and @sptrawler, it all makes sense now.



Hi Aus, as Barney says this is not going to be a sky rocket, more a slow burn up.


----------



## barney (20 September 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Thanks @barney and @sptrawler, it all makes sense now.




Cheers M8.

My memory was almost correct (unusual   ,lol)  regarding the Mining part of the operation


----------



## waterbottle (22 September 2021)

Canadian miners welcome Liberal election victory
					

The question is whether Canada will 'become the critical mineral supplier the world needs'.




					www.mining.com
				




Recent win for Trudeau might be positive news for VML


----------



## waterbottle (26 September 2021)

VML showing off their ore


----------



## waterbottle (27 September 2021)

Seems like there are some big movements in a number of rare earth stocks that aren't shared by VML...


----------



## barney (27 September 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Seems like there are some big movements in a number of rare earth stocks that aren't shared by VML...




Possibly hesitation to see if/how many escrow shares will get dumped on the market.

I doubt there will too much issue and glad the shares will be out there. Onward and upward once Management show they prefer to hang on to their shares.


----------



## waterbottle (27 September 2021)

barney said:


> Possibly hesitation to see if/how many escrow shares will get dumped on the market.
> 
> I doubt there will too much issue and glad the shares will be out there. Onward and upward once Management show they prefer to hang on to their shares.
> 
> View attachment 130745



Are these released at COB?


----------



## barney (27 September 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Are these released at COB?




Good question @waterbottle    It would be at the Close on Wednesday I assume, but maybe fact check that.

If so, the Trading on Thursday might be interesting.

Personally I'd love to see a couple of 100 million share days where the Buyers meet the Sellers around the current levels

If we do see that I still don't think it will be Management doing the Selling    (Just my opinion of course)


----------



## aus_trader (27 September 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Seems like there are some big movements in a number of rare earth stocks that aren't shared by VML...



Agree, the escrow shares might be keeping a lid on VML as you guys said.

I think once resolved, VML will join the others in RE space and we'll have days like these...🤞


----------



## barney (27 September 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I think once resolved, VML will join the others in RE space and we'll have days like these...🤞




Hope so Aus.  The large amount of SOI can be a deterrent for punters, but in reality its the market cap which determined the value

At around $245 million with enough cash to fund them into Production, I think VML will definitely have its day in the sun

The magic $1 Billion dollar market cap is definitely in the sights of Management.  i think within 3 years is a possibility

That would give us a share price of 24 cps assuming no further dilution.  Plenty of fun and games before that happens of course.


----------



## waterbottle (28 September 2021)

The divergence is worrying though and I don't think it's as simple as waving-off the market... If you consider companies who have benefited from last 2-days' worth of rallies:

AR3 --> Australian-based, low MC, likely to benefit from government stimulus targeting RE market
ARU --> Australian-based, aiming for larger production @ start-up c.f. VML. Obviously being noticed by European car manufacturers given recent discussions, even though they are in the planning stage
AAR --> American-based, likely to benefit from any US-based policies targeting RE market
LYC --> Australian-based, already in production, already selling
I think VML's performance to-date has been spectacular and they've certainly met all their goals so far. But the lack of clarity about their future is a concern. The rationale behind starting small without binging on debt is arguably rational (some would argue otherwise given the low-interest environment that the world is likely to face for the next few years) but it may stifle growth.

The goal for the company is the development of the North T zone, but to what end? Who would the product be sold to? REEtec is far too small a company. I would have liked to see additional off-take agreements in 2021, given that they've now entered production. It begs the question: Why? Is the product not good enough? Are the volumes too small? Are no attempts being made? Are there better alternatives?

The recent acquisition also sparks some concern. The Kipawa project seems to have run into significant opposition from environmental activists in 2014, so much so that it was the reason Toyota's subsidiary pulled out. The feasibility study commissioned by Matamec (original owners) outlines a 2 year pre-mining phase before production is possible. Whether or not the same conditions will apply in 2021-22 won't be known until VML undertake their own due diligence...


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## waterbottle (29 September 2021)

Share price seems to have held up despite release of 500 million shares today + larger falls in other RE miners. Interesting.


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## barney (29 September 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Share price seems to have held up despite release of 500 million shares today + larger falls in other RE miners. Interesting.



Yeah the VWAP was almost bang on 055 on pretty decent Volume. 

Time will tell if the punters liquidating today were clever, or alternatively being foxed out of their shares 

I certainly didn't sell any of mine

I'm backing back into the 6's not too far down the track (rose coloured glasses appropriately affixed )


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## waterbottle (1 October 2021)

China boosts rare-earth quota 20% to shield supply chain from U.S.
					

Increase raises output to record 168,000 tons for crucial high-tech materials




					asia.nikkei.com
				







Looks like China is trying to maintain dominance - I do remember reading that they were also combining their rare earth producers into 2 entities.
Interesting to note that they won't purchase rare earths from Australian suppliers. 

I take it to mean that they're is increasing demand for rare earths and they don't want to lose their monopoly....


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## aus_trader (1 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> China boosts rare-earth quota 20% to shield supply chain from U.S.
> 
> 
> Increase raises output to record 168,000 tons for crucial high-tech materials
> ...



Rare Elements prices have been rising and I think there are long term fundamentals driving it.

However it looks like China want to flood the markets and bring prices down, possibly with the share prices of Rare Earth stocks.

Once the prices start trading at sewerage bargain levels, they'll send agents to take control of the stocks at the management level by buying up stakes or pinning them down with funding/JV partnerships. This is not some conspiracy theory, this is how they've been operating if fellow citizens have kept awake last few years.

Before the China mob and agents who are dictated to have ASF membership accounts start replying, that a lot of the Aussie mining projects would not have been developed had it not been due to Chinese involvement and funding ; let's just say the level of management control and price gauging was probably wasn't worth the funding received. Projects would have been developed slowly, but so what ? They would have been able to realise much higher free market spot prices without being pegged down with cheap locked-in/(sucked-in) long term contracts.

Sorry I had to get that off my chest, so fellow Aussie citizens could peel off the wool over their eyes. If we sell off (JV off) every farm and mine and any other asset of national significance to China and the infiltrating  agents, we might as well live under their dictatorship.

Now to some positive comments: 

We can do something about it, especially if the State (esp.WA) and Federal Government could bring about changes that protect and keep treasures of national interest within the country and it's shareholders rather than foreign entities.

One such example is when the Government blocked the infiltration of another RE miner Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) a couple of years back:


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## waterbottle (1 October 2021)

@aus_trader i agree with what you've said and have read about their said business practices which are vicious although effective. 
Good to see government intervening when it comes to national interests although they have been selective (property market). 

VML seems to position itself as China-independent, which is important given current geopolitical tensions


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## aus_trader (1 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> @aus_trader i agree with what you've said and have read about their said business practices which are vicious although effective.
> Good to see government intervening when it comes to national interests although they have been selective (property market).
> 
> VML seems to position itself as China-independent, which is important given current geopolitical tensions



Yes, I think VML will be somewhat immune to Chinese control given it's assets are on US/Canadian soils, but then again you never know as the shares are listed on the asx, therefore we could be approached as well with enticements like those presented to NTU.

I know it's probably beyond the scope of the discussion of the thread, but we have to take the national pride of our country and it's assets more seriously. There could be some friendly deals that create win-win situations and some ties with China such as free trade agreements etc. However when it comes to our farms, mines and universities, we have to be careful how much control we hand over. If not we'll be directly or indirectly under the control of CCP, whether we like it or not.


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## aus_trader (5 October 2021)

African countries are waking up to the exploitation...


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## aus_trader (5 October 2021)

By the way all my comments are against the controlling, power hungry tactics of CCP and various entities that are set up that are under direct control, which/whom I termed as agents.

I have seen extremism amongst us, so please see that none of my comments are directed in any way at the Chinese citizens who work tirelessly under extreme regimes to make and manufacture the goods and products we buy and take for granted everyday. Nor is any comments directed at our fellow Chinese community or any Asian ethnic groups. Just to be clear, I do not share/agree with any Hansonian values.

However it's good to think in a business mindset. This is the time to do so, and I am reluctant to apologise for waking up those of us who are sleepwalking into a trap at National level without even knowing it. Otherwise it'll be too late when we realise in the near future that we've sold off the heart and soul of our nation...


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## waterbottle (5 October 2021)

Anyone manage to catch the investor presentation with NWR? Any links to a recording?


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## barney (5 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Anyone manage to catch the investor presentation with NWR? Any links to a recording?



Go to the link and register your email etc and a replay of the Presentation with Uncle Geoff will be available  

Geoff Preso Virtual Conference


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## waterbottle (6 October 2021)

barney said:


> Go to the link and register your email etc and a replay of the Presentation with Uncle Geoff will be available
> 
> Geoff Preso Virtual Conference



Thanks, I just had a look. Not sure if the crew from VML take a look at these forums (here's hoping they do... ). I've used _italics_ to indicate references to their presentation that are worth checking.

My thoughts:

The overall presentation was disappointingly short with minimal focus on future developments. The presentation was mostly a rehash of everything that had already been presented/accomplished over the past 2 years, which to their credit is substantial, but nonetheless deficient when a meeting worthy of a market announcement has very little in the way of future plans. In VML's defence this may be a limitation of the host given Geoff seemed rushed and overly focused on time.


The medium to long-term narrative for VML is taking shape. The short-term goal of shipping ore to Saskatoon for processing in late 2021 and for production by the end of 1H2022 is excellent. It's a coming-of-age event where VML transforms from explorer/early-stage miner to potentially viable business.
The vision for VML is commendable - a North American rare earths producer (presumably equivalent to Lynas) able to process ore from multiple mining sites across the North Americas, being founded in a conducive geopolitical & accommodating technological period.
My criticism here is that there are several sub-projects, all of which I'm sure will require a number of years to develop on their own e.g. VML's March '21 presentation had Tardiff slated to commence in 2024, although the October '21 presentation now has it planned for 2025... Are they biting off more than they can chew? How likely is a company going to be able to go from fledgling rare earths producer in 2022 to international miner + substantial North American producer in the space of 5 years?

_Slide 11 gives a great example of this, particularly the graph on the right. Great explanation of what they hope to achieve but I'm going to need something more tangible than hope..._


No mention of any other potential customers or indications on how the plan to obtain (_Slide 10_). According to this presentation, we are ~ 8 months away from having a product that can be sold, with the only customer being REEtec. This needs to be addressed ASAP.


The success that they've had with North T has been incredible (_Slides 12-15_). They've developed the site according to their original timeframes. The quality of ore has been better than expected. They've managed to secure Canadian government funding along the way for a reasonable cost. Importantly, they've demonstrated that they have a reliable and effective management team.


I am extremely skeptical of the Wigu Hill project. It's based in Tanzania where several international miners have already lost their licenses to the Tanzanian government. The project was purchased from Montero mining in 2019 *after *they lost their retention license. The company is currently in a legal battle with the Tanzanian government. It seems that the Tanzanian government has a history of doing the same thing to other miners.
VML seems to own the intellectual property behind the project which isn't very substantial given the absence of mining rights... In fact, the Tanzanian government's own mining database lists a company by the name of "Wigu Hill Mining Co ltd" as the right-holder, with a license that expired in 2020. Further, VML nor Cheetah are listed as recognised investors on the Tanzanian Mining Commission's register.
Wigu Hill is presentation padding until proven otherwise, and frankly should be considered a sunk cost.


The Kipawa project gets a mention (_Slides 25-29_). The problem remains timing. When is that project going to be addressed if Tardiff won't commence until 2025?


The plant gets a mention (_Slides 30-33_). The 1000t/pa processing capacity surprised me. The off-take agreement with REEtec was for 1000t/pa. So how are they going to be able to generate more product to sell to other customers if their plant is already operating at max capacity? Why build a plant with arguably restrictive throughput, that essentially locks you into only being able to fulfill the contract of a single customer?
There is a suggestion that VML will increase its capacity to 2000t/pa within 2 years. However, VML has alluded to the fact that they are aiming for a 5000t/pa REO production once Tardiff is included i.e. by 2025, and that this is the ultimate goal for the REEtec agreement (in its current form). How does VML plan to go from 2000t/pa to 5000t/pa? Will they need a new plant? Is the site large enough to accommodate changes to equipment?


Off-take agreement with REEtec (_Slide 34_) is the only commercial partner that they have after 1.5 years?

All-in-all, not what I was hoping to see. VML seems to be a company with big ideas that may never outgrow the North T deposit... Prove me wrong.


----------



## aus_trader (6 October 2021)

Good analysis @waterbottle , I think VML will be a slow and steady achiever over the long term. If their plans are getting executed over the years, fining new offtake partners shouldn't be a problem. At a company level I am optimistic.

However as I mentioned, from a global point of view the bigger risk for VML and other RE stocks is if China floods the markets to suppress RE prices. It'll be like the ice age that Uranium stocks experienced over the last few years or worse when U3O8 was trading ~US30/oz.  Just in case, what's the plan if RE prices start to nose-dive when we least expect it ?


----------



## barney (6 October 2021)

@waterbottle    A good and detailed post which raises some valid short term questions. Getting late so no time to discuss but I'll try and get some time over the next couple of days.

The  Share Price could be reflecting  impatience due to some of the points you raise. This is pretty normal at this end of the market. As we know, Spec hunters are generally price orientated and "time" often generates unwanted price pressure so Traders tend to look for greener pastures.
ps I assume anyone trading this on price action alone would likely have been out when support at 6 cents got broken a few days ago.

Your "point 2" above is very important to VML getting to the next level and is only a matter of months away. I think the next few months could see the SP drift around/maybe more downside, but a couple of years from now should be a different story. That's the plan at this stage for me anyway


----------



## waterbottle (6 October 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Good analysis @waterbottle , I think VML will be a slow and steady achiever over the long term. If their plans are getting executed over the years, fining new offtake partners shouldn't be a problem. At a company level I am optimistic.
> 
> However as I mentioned, from a global point of view the bigger risk for VML and other RE stocks is if China floods the markets to suppress RE prices. It'll be like the ice age that Uranium stocks experienced over the last few years or worse when U3O8 was trading ~US30/oz.  Just in case, what's the plan if RE prices start to nose-dive when we least expect it ?



This is part of the problem. I'm sure there  were plenty of miners who went under in the late 2000/early 2010s due to a collapse in rare earth prices. 
I think VML needs to establish itself ASAP. This isn't a market where you can assume conditions will remain favourable for years to come so it's best to be opportunistic.


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## barney (6 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> This is part of the problem. I'm sure there  were plenty of miners who went under in the late 2000/early 2010s due to a collapse in rare earth prices.
> I think VML needs to establish itself ASAP. This isn't a market where you can assume conditions will remain favourable for years to come so it's best to be opportunistic.




We need to remember that they will likely have one of, if not THE lowest extraction costs of any RE company on the planet due to the nature of the ore, plus their staged production profile is exponentially more cost efficient than fabricating a billion dollar plant prior to gaining customers.

If the RE sector does take a hit, this is the kind of Stock that will survive in the long term (in my opinion)


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## aus_trader (6 October 2021)

barney said:


> We need to remember that they will likely have one of, if not THE lowest extraction costs of any RE company on the planet due to the nature of the ore, plus their staged production profile is exponentially more cost efficient than fabricating a billion dollar plant prior to gaining customers.
> 
> If the RE sector does take a hit, this is the kind of Stock that will survive in the long term (in my opinion)



Thanks @barney for your analysis. You might be right that VML might be one that can put up with an unfavorable period. High cost, low margin miners and stocks with mammoth cap ex mines that need to be built may be affected severely.

I'll keep at least part of my holding long term. Even if there will be a period of RE price manipulation via the exploitative party mentioned.


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## sptrawler (6 October 2021)

IMO and it is only my opinion, small companies having a few prospective leases seems to come in handy when they run short of cash, once they have a proven reserve on the tenement they can always on sell them to help fund the core focus.
Whether China flood the market or not, I think will have little impact on the search for alternative supplies, China by showing its hand has left other countries like the U.S and E.U, U.K etc, little option but to diversify the supply chain in all sectors.
So again only in my opinion, VML by sourcing RE in Canada, really only has to worry about U.S, Australian and alternative Canadian supplies.
Like I said only my musings


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## aus_trader (6 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> IMO and it is only my opinion, small companies having a few prospective leases seems to come in handy when they run short of cash, once they have a proven reserve on the tenement they can always on sell them to help fund the core focus.
> Whether China flood the market or not, I think will have little impact on the search for alternative supplies, China by showing its hand has left other countries like the U.S and E.U, U.K etc, little option but to diversify the supply chain in all sectors.
> So again only in my opinion, VML by sourcing RE in Canada, really only has to worry about U.S, Australian and alternative Canadian supplies.
> Like I said only my musings



Absolutely @sptrawler I think VML's region of operation just puts it in a category of it's own. Only other asx listed RE stock in the same region with strategic American grasp is probably ARR.

With the other RE stocks, one has to be careful IMHO. I am not trying to distribute some fear to my fellow ASF members, but just stating the possibility that the world's largest RE producer can easily vary their output and manipulate the prices and crush some of the lesser hopeful stocks with the intention of taking control once the shares are trading for pennies or insolvent. Think of OPEC and Arabian countries combined on oil price influence to draw some sort of comparison...


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## sptrawler (6 October 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Absolutely @sptrawler I think VML's region of operation just puts it in a category of it's own. Only other asx listed RE stock in the same region with strategic American grasp is probably ARR.
> 
> With the other RE stocks, one has to be careful IMHO. I am not trying to distribute some fear to my fellow ASF members, but just stating the possibility that the world's largest RE producer can easily vary their output and manipulate the prices and crush some of the lesser hopeful stocks with the intention of taking control once the shares are trading for pennies or insolvent. Think of OPEC and Arabian countries combined on oil price influence to draw some sort of comparison...
> 
> View attachment 131127



Which is the very reason I'm attracted to VML, slowly, slowly minimal debt, is the way forward IMO.
Way too many companies try to upscale too quickly and end up carrying too much debt, into a volatile market, then can't find funding in lean times.
obviously sooner or later a trade war will break out with China, only the fit will get through, because of China's obvious cost advantage.
Tarrifs can only go so far to protect producers, they still have to have a competitive advantage, to survive.


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## qldfrog (6 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Which is the very reason I'm attracted to VML, slowly, slowly minimal debt, is the way forward IMO.
> Way too many companies try to upscale too quickly and end up carrying too much debt, into a volatile market, then can't find funding in lean times.
> obviously sooner or later a trade war will break out with China, only the fit will get through, because of China's obvious cost advantage.
> Tarrifs can only go so far to protect producers, they still have to have a competitive advantage, to survive.



But i would add as counter argument that free money as we have now may not be going on too long, so slow move might be a death move whereas  a
huge debt ,build now will be the best way out with 20% inflation and a crisis where your output is still in demand


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## sptrawler (6 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> But i would add as counter argument that free money as we have now may not be going on too long, so slow move might be a death move whereas  a
> huge debt ,build now will be the best way out with 20% inflation and a crisis where your output is still in demand



20% inflation, means a definite 22% interest rate on your borrowings, so I still think building output on cashflow, is better than huge borrowings and forced sales of product at any price. 
But who knows, time will tell.


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## qldfrog (6 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> 20% inflation, means a definite 22% interest rate on your borrowings, so I still think building output on cashflow, is better than huge borrowings and forced sales of product at any price.
> But who knows, time will tell.



Well with between 6% official and 8 to 10 % real inflation figures in the US this month, interest rates are at 0 or so...
So i expect with 20% inflation in coming year, the company will pay bonds at 3 or 5 percent and make a killing...
The world after...


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## sptrawler (6 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Well with between 6% official and 8 to 10 % real inflation figures in the US this month, interest rates are at 0 or so...
> So i expect with 20% inflation in coming year, the company will pay bonds at 3 or 5 percent and make a killing...
> The world after...



We've lived trough high interest rates, the last thing anyone needs, including companies is high borrowings.


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## waterbottle (6 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> But i would add as counter argument that free money as we have now may not be going on too long, so slow move might be a death move whereas  a
> huge debt ,build now will be the best way out




I agree. 

VML is not a low risk company because they're purposely being cautious. 
They're actually taking on a big risk by not moving quickly enough and this just doesn't seem to be appreciated because everyone is still of the mindset that debt =bad. That equation has changed since 2008.

The big risk they're taking here is that they're going to be outmanoeuvred and outplayed by companies willing to take on debt and become successful enough to secure some form of high profile status (which by the way they haven't, despite being Canada's first rare earth producer and North America's second). 

There's no point celebrating a "risk - free" strategy if the company is no longer required in the end.


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## aus_trader (7 October 2021)

I think the company will be required in the end. USA is trying hard to secure supply and long term offtake agreements with RE stocks in their region and even with some of the Aussie projects. They are doing it precisely for the reason as they know China can manipulate prices in both directions. Now China has the upper hand to be able to crush RE prices with a huge oversupply, but remember it wasn't so long ago they completely restricted the supply and it was so hard to source RE outside of China.

They just have to survive through whatever dark periods that China will impose on them with sensible financial decisions. I personally think the free money experiment will come to an end, probably sooner than everyone is predicting. To take on massive debt during this 0% interest rate environment would be irresponsible and could land them in hot water unable to service the mountain of debt when the monetary experiment has to reverse and lift interest rates again.


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## qldfrog (8 October 2021)

aus_trader said:


> I think the company will be required in the end. USA is trying hard to secure supply and long term offtake agreements with RE stocks in their region and even with some of the Aussie projects. They are doing it precisely for the reason as they know China can manipulate prices in both directions. Now China has the upper hand to be able to crush RE prices with a huge oversupply, but remember it wasn't so long ago they completely restricted the supply and it was so hard to source RE outside of China.
> 
> They just have to survive through whatever dark periods that China will impose on them with sensible financial decisions. I personally think the free money experiment will come to an end, probably sooner than everyone is predicting. To take on massive debt during this 0% interest rate environment would be irresponsible and could land them in hot water unable to service the mountain of debt when the monetary experiment has to reverse and lift interest rates again.



If the massive debt is on a fixed rate,it is genius.on a floating rate,i agree a looming disaster


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## aus_trader (8 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> If the massive debt is on a fixed rate,it is genius.on a floating rate,i agree a looming disaster



If funding can be fixed for a number of years at a low rate, we could be safe taking on a bit of serviceable debt.

With signs of several countries slowly nudging up the interest rate lever, we might be living at the bottom of the cycle.


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## waterbottle (14 October 2021)

Rare earths sector at risk of more substitution if prices spike
					

Demand for rare earth permanent magnets is due to soar as governments and companies step up efforts to cut carbon emissions.




					www.mining.com
				




Interesting counter article, essentially claiming that rare earths can, and likely will be, replaced by other metals should they become too expensive.


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## aus_trader (14 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Rare earths sector at risk of more substitution if prices spike
> 
> 
> Demand for rare earth permanent magnets is due to soar as governments and companies step up efforts to cut carbon emissions.
> ...



There could be a couple of substitutes for the magnets, but I don't think the whole spectrum of rare earth metals could be replaced easily.


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## sptrawler (14 October 2021)

aus_trader said:


> There could be a couple of substitutes for the magnets, but I don't think the whole spectrum of rare earth metals could be replaced easily.



I think it is a bit like batteries, you can make Li-Fe batteries for a lot less than Li-ion batteries, the same as you can make evaporative air conditioners cheaper than reverse cycle air conditioners.
You just have to decide what suits your needs.
Best you decide, on which to back.
Just my opinion, but it is a very important point IMO, rare earths give better electric motors, nickel, cobalt and lithium give better batteries.
You have to decide which will get the better market traction, cheap and cheerful or more expensive and more bang for your bucks. 🤣


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## aus_trader (15 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I think it is a bit like batteries, you can make Li-Fe batteries for a lot less than Li-ion batteries, the same as you can make evaporative air conditioners cheaper than reverse cycle air conditioners.
> You just have to decide what suits your needs.
> Best you decide, on which to back.
> Just my opinion, but it is a very important point IMO, rare earths give better electric motors, nickel, cobalt and lithium give better batteries.
> You have to decide which will get the better market traction, cheap and cheerful or more expensive and more bang for your bucks. 🤣



There's no question about batteries I believe. Who wants something that has to be charged all the time due to poor components ?

I don't own an EV. But going by other experiences from what I do own (cordless Li-Ion drill and other power tools, smart phone etc) I personally wouldn't want a cheap and nasty that keeps having a flat battery when trying to get things done !

With RE, I guess I'll have to keep an open mind. My gut feeling is the core RE elements/materials are too unique and alternatives will produce sub-par performance...


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## waterbottle (18 October 2021)

Some good news. Hopefully other purchasers will look at VML for rare earth supplies


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## waterbottle (19 October 2021)

Great job lads!

Second contract (although not secured yet). Let's hope this keeps ramping up.
Looks they've got access to the US market with this deal....
Now for Europe and Japan...


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## waterbottle (20 October 2021)

Looks like I missed their investor presentation, released yesterday afternoon.

I have to admit, the last two announcements have boosted my opinion of VML compared to when I sat through their last intevstor presentation.

We can now get an approx. value for both UCore and REEtec contracts.. Estimated value of product at $49/kg as of Sept 2021.

Aiming for 2000t TREO p.a for REEtec from 2022 - 2028 and then potentially ramps up to 6000t after 2028 for an additional 10 years. That works out to be approx $98 million p.a for the first 6 years, and then up to $294 million p.a for the following 10 years - $3.5 billion USD over 16 years.

The UCore agreement can't be estimated yet we don't know what product they're after and what price they're receiving it at, but assuming it's the same as REEtec then it's $98 million p.a from 2024 - 2026, after which it potentially increases to $245 million pa USD.

So estimated earnings from 2022-2024 would be $98 million usd p.a, between 2024-2026 it would be $196 million usd p.a, $343 million usd p.a between 2026-2028 and then $539 million usd p.a after 2028.

Now, these figures are based off of what's in their presentation.
These figures would also exclude kipawa (given we don't have a DFS yet or any idea of how to mine it) and Wigu Hill (for the same reasons but I'm sure everyone here knows my stance on Wigu....).

The ore currently available for sale via North T is not enough to fulfill both contracts. As per their presentation, North T only has 9345 tonnes of TREO, which would be enough to supply both parties until the end of 2025 (assuming 2000 t/pa from 2022-24 and 4000 t/pa from 2024-26).
This means that VML must have Nechalacho online by 2025 and ready to supply (which also coincides with their timeline in the presentation). I'm optimistic based on what I've seen from the team's performance.
Interestingly, based off their valuation of $30/kg TREO, Nechalacho comes out at $39 billion USD alone based on today's prices.

In summary:

Plans now in place for income streams
Proven ability to source, plan, mine and (soon to) produce RE products
Positioning company to take advantage of current geopolitical climate
Potential income streams should accelerate from 2024 onwards
Current valuation of $257 million AUD. Average p/e for asx somewhere between 20-30. Would expect valuation to also increase in 2022 onwards given earnings increase.
Anyone else have any other thoughts?


PS:  VML, please get someone to proofread presentations before release...


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## barney (20 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> I have to admit, the last two announcements have boosted my opinion of VML compared to when I sat through their last intevstor presentation.
> 
> Looks like we can now get an approx. value for both UCore and REEtec contracts..




Agree @waterbottle   This presentation was specific and well presented.  

I haven't done any figures on the potential value of their "shorter term" objectives, but I am happy to accept Geoff Atkins's supposition that Stage 2 will be predominantly funded by Stage 1 + debt funding  (ie. Minimal Share-holder dilution)  

and Stage 3 (Kipawa) may eventually help them achieve their stated objective, to become "the next Lynas" (their words) 

I'm personally playing the long game with this one, but everyone's trading position is different of course.    Still early days for me.


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## waterbottle (20 October 2021)

barney said:


> Agree @waterbottle   This presentation was specific and well presented.
> 
> I haven't done any figures on the potential value of their "shorter term" objectives, but I am happy to accept Geoff Atkins's supposition that Stage 2 will be predominantly funded by Stage 1 + debt funding  (ie. Minimal Share-holder dilution)
> 
> ...




I'm in it for the long run too, but need to vigilant given many companies have started with the greatest potential only to fail. 

RE: Stage 2, I believe it was to be funded entirely out of North T, but it looks like that's now changed to also include debt....
The North T zone alone should generate approx $230 million USD.


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## sptrawler (20 October 2021)

barney said:


> Agree @waterbottle   This presentation was specific and well presented.
> 
> I haven't done any figures on the potential value of their "shorter term" objectives, but I am happy to accept Geoff Atkins's supposition that Stage 2 will be predominantly funded by Stage 1 + debt funding  (ie. Minimal Share-holder dilution)
> 
> ...



I'm with you @barney when I was working a mate was buying Lynas for a few cents, we are talking probably 12-15 years ago, I didn't bother  back then I was chasing fast turnover, not so much these days. I have a bit more patience now.
The other thing I like about VML over Lynas, they are working in North America not Australia, I think the red tape and costs may be substantially less.
Just my thoughts.


----------



## spratty84 (20 October 2021)

Its definitely a long term hold for me, just hoping things keep ticking along nicely like they are currently.


----------



## aus_trader (20 October 2021)

Great to have a few fellow ASF members cover VML, it just gives you that little bit of confidence to hold through serious pull backs and boring consolidations.

Me too, going to sit on this one with a longer term horizon and watch it's progress.


----------



## sptrawler (20 October 2021)

aus_trader said:


> Great to have a few fellow ASF members cover VML, it just gives you that little bit of confidence to hold through serious pull backs and boring consolidations.
> 
> Me too, going to sit on this one with a longer term horizon and watch it's progress.



Look I don't know if i'm right or wrong, but taking the example of Lynas, I'm pretty sure he bought in at around 8cents, I might be wrong my memory usually is good though.
Now even if he only bought 100,000 at that and put them in the bottom draw he has done well, that is the reasoning i'm using.
I've bought some shares and sold them for a nice profit, eg 2,000 CSL @ $27, sold them @ $30, nice little flip tucked it away and moved on to the next one, MQG after the gfc nice pick up at around $15 from memory, flipped them at around $30, great pick up moved on to the next one.
I'm a bit older and a bit more patient these days.
Now I don't put HZR in the same basket as VML, completely different business model, but working in the same area, renewables.
Yet I hold both.
Just my thoughts.


----------



## waterbottle (20 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Look I don't know if i'm right or wrong, but taking the example of Lynas, I'm pretty sure he bought in at around 8cents, I might be wrong my memory usually is good though.
> Now even if he only bought 100,000 at that and put them in the bottom draw he has done well, that is the reasoning i'm using.
> I've bought some shares and sold them for a nice profit, eg 2,000 CSL @ $27, sold them @ $30, nice little flip tucked it away and moved on to the next one, MQG after the gfc nice pick up at around $15 from memory, flipped them at around $30, great pick up moved on to the next one.
> I'm a bit older and a bit more patient these days.
> Just my thoughts.




And more importantly, VML now has an established plan towards earnings of approx 500 million pa usd within the next 10 years. I have no doubt that will increase once as rare earth demand increases, VMLs network expands and the West pulls away from China. 

With a conservative PE of 20, that would put VML at 10bill market cap within 10 years I. E. Share price of $2 within 10 years. 

That's my whacko back of the envelope valuation


----------



## sptrawler (20 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> And more importantly, VML now has an established plan towards earnings of approx 500 million pa usd within the next 10 years. I have no doubt that will increase once as rare earth demand increases, VMLs network expands and the West pulls away from China.
> 
> With a conservative PE of 20, that would put VML at 10bill market cap within 10 years I. E. Share price of $2 within 10 years.
> 
> That's my whacko back of the envelope valuation



That is exactly what I'm getting at, also being based in North America, there are some very rich companies there that can pick up a company like VML, for ashtray money.


----------



## aus_trader (21 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> And more importantly, VML now has an established plan towards earnings of approx 500 million pa usd within the next 10 years. I have no doubt that will increase once as rare earth demand increases, VMLs network expands and the West pulls away from China.
> 
> With a conservative PE of 20, that would put VML at 10bill market cap within 10 years I. E. Share price of $2 within 10 years.
> 
> That's my whacko back of the envelope valuation



$10b whoa , bit on the high side I think, I mean It'll be nice of course if VML gets that big. Even the biggest RE stock on asx LYC is only just over $6b, so just trying to put things in perspective.

What @sptrawler said is quite insightful however, i.e. to just hold few of the good ones right through. He knows about MCR that I sold far too early to realise a modest profit. Most of you guys know about my ASM (another RE stock) stuff up when I sold it as soon as it was spun off by ALK, and then it went on to become a 12-bagger at it's recent peak. These are not some hypothetical missed opportunities, but actual purchased and sold stocks as documented in Speculative Stock Portfolio. So I'll have to exercise some patience with VML.


----------



## sptrawler (21 October 2021)

aus_trader said:


> $10b whoa , bit on the high side I think, I mean It'll be nice of course if VML gets that big. Even the biggest RE stock on asx LYC is only just over $6b, so just trying to put things in perspective.
> 
> What @sptrawler said is quite insightful however, i.e. to just hold few of the good ones right through. He knows about MCR that I sold far too early to realise a modest profit. Most of you guys know about my ASM (another RE stock) stuff up when I sold it as soon as it was spun off by ALK, and then it went on to become a 12-bagger at it's recent peak. These are not some hypothetical missed opportunities, but actual purchased and sold stocks as documented in Speculative Stock Portfolio. So I'll have to exercise some patience with VML.



Ah aus IMO you are starting to see the light, stocks aren't IMO one dimensional, so you have stocks that are holders for income, while you don't need the income, you have dividend reinvestment and add to them when they tank eg(WES)
Then you have shares that you think, well they are in a pretty good place, good management plenty of infrastructure and demand is ramping, eg (MCR)
Then you have, who is going to benefit from all this exploration? eg (IMD)
But I always think this wont last and sell out early, as I get older I become more conservative, as I don't have to make my decisions on my days off. 🤣


----------



## waterbottle (22 October 2021)

Big drop for Lynas today, although some important insight into rare earths offered....

Lynas expecting an increase in rare earth demand heading into 2022. Seems that they were limited by COVID outbreaks at their processing facility and limited access to shipping.
They're expecting a stronger rare earths market over the next 3-4 years.

I'm not too familiar with the company but it seems like they're trying to establish an Australian rare earths processing facility at Kalgoorlie and have recently received a recommendation from the EPA.
According to their earnings call, their production has fallen victim to COVID, global shipping woes to and from Malaysia, limited environmental approvals from the Malaysian government, and the cost needed to transport waste from their Malaysian processing facility back to Australia.
Their Kalgoorlie strategy may be an attempt to mitigate any future disruptions.
VML seems to be ahead in that regards with a facility already under construction with government support.

There was also mention of a US project by 2025, but nothing of substance mentioned in the earnings call.
My interpretation is it's a project that isn't a definite go ahead, and therefore may be available to another competitor.
VML seems to be making inroads into US markets through private companies (UCore) as opposed to government.

For comparison's sake LYC produced approx 16 000t/pa of REO @ 6 billion AUD market val.
VML will be producing close to 2000t/pa of REO in 2022 @ 250 million AUD.


----------



## aus_trader (22 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Big drop for Lynas today, although some important insight into rare earths offered....
> 
> Lynas expecting an increase in rare earth demand heading into 2022. Seems that they were limited by COVID outbreaks at their processing facility and limited access to shipping.
> They're expecting a stronger rare earths market over the next 3-4 years.
> ...



Good analysis @waterbottle 

In terms of growth prospects, I am happy to be in the VML camp than a mature RE play like LYC.

FYI I did hold LYC shares in the past when it was still a fledgling.


----------



## sptrawler (22 October 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Big drop for Lynas today, although some important insight into rare earths offered....
> 
> Lynas expecting an increase in rare earth demand heading into 2022. Seems that they were limited by COVID outbreaks at their processing facility and limited access to shipping.
> They're expecting a stronger rare earths market over the next 3-4 years.
> ...



I don't hold Lynas and am only going off memory from a cursory interest perspective, so I might be wrong.
But form memory, the big issue with Malaysia, is the highly toxic residue.
So again from memory that toxic part of the process, which is in the early stages of the process, is going to be done in Kalgoorlie.
The later value adding stages of the process are still going to be done overseas.
Someone who has an interest in Lynas might be able to check out my memory and correct me, if I'm off the mark.
As with @aus_trader I'm not into Lynas, missed the boat early and have chosen VML as my RE exposure.


----------



## aus_trader (25 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I don't hold Lynas and am only going off memory from a cursory interest perspective, so I might be wrong.
> But form memory, the big issue with Malaysia, is the highly toxic residue.
> So again from memory that toxic part of the process, which is in the early stages of the process, is going to be done in Kalgoorlie.
> The later value adding stages of the process are still going to be done overseas.
> ...



Yes I can confirm LYC had problem after problem with pollution and toxic issues in Malaysia in the past.

Like @sptrawler I don't follow it much in detail, so don't know if these issues are resolved or it will re-surface once again...


----------



## spratty84 (25 October 2021)

I bit the bullet and topped up with another parcel today now im at 750000. I have been very impressed how quick they have gone into production and found markets for there products. It definitely gives me some confidence in the management team and the scope for the company. Yes there is a lot of water to go under the bridge in the next few years but the risk and reward im prepared to sit through as im in it for the long haul. If vital pulls through on there expansion plans with very little debt with another customer or two on boards happy days.


----------



## barney (25 October 2021)

Good luck with your top up etc @spratty84 

My list of R/E Stocks shows VML was one of the laggards again today   A few times in the past, they have done this then play "catch up" a couple of days later.   Hopefully that trend continues.

Good to see your NTU is starting to represent its potential value as well Mr Aus (@aus_trader) It also surely has a good long term future.


----------



## aus_trader (25 October 2021)

barney said:


> Good luck with your top up etc @spratty84
> 
> My list of R/E Stocks shows VML was one of the laggards again today   A few times in the past, they have done this then play "catch up" a couple of days later.   Hopefully that trend continues.
> 
> ...



Good watchlist of RE stocks @barney , I posted a few that are breaking out in the Outstanding Breakout Alerts! thread earlier today.

I think it'll be a matter of time before VML breaks out higher as well... 🤞


----------



## waterbottle (1 November 2021)

Big rebound in Neodymium prices compared to earlier this year (VML was tracking it well back then).


----------



## spratty84 (1 November 2021)

waterbottle said:


> View attachment 132166
> 
> 
> Big rebound in Neodymium prices compared to earlier this year (VML was tracking it well back then).



Also the capital raising they did was needed but definitely took the air out of the stock price.


----------



## qldfrog (2 November 2021)

spratty84 said:


> Also the capital raising they did was needed but definitely took the air out of the stock price.



Sadly a tight SL sees me out for the time being with a small loss


----------



## spratty84 (2 November 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Sadly a tight SL sees me out for the time being with a small loss



That sucks it looks a slow grind at the moment


----------



## waterbottle (2 November 2021)

spratty84 said:


> That sucks it looks a slow grind at the moment



Agreed. 

We should expect a few more announcements in the next few months:

Ore should have been received at their plant + construction update
DD should be completed on Kipawa
Confirmation of agreement with Ucore pending acceptance of product

Meanwhile we have COP26 in the background which will hopefully spur a shift in US politics to focus on renewable energy + associated stimulus


----------



## waterbottle (3 November 2021)

A North of 60 rare earths supply chain
					

A recent agreement between Vital Metals Ltd. and Ucore Rare Metals Inc. marks a major milestone in establishing a complete North American rare earths supply chain with links in Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan, and Alaska. Vital has already established Canada's only rare earths mine at its...



					www.miningnewsnorth.com
				




Great article for newcomers summarising VMLs progress and future plans


----------



## waterbottle (11 November 2021)

Neodymium prices now well and truly past their peak from earlier this year, likely secondary to global plans to increase the number of EVs and renewable energy plans. 

If this continues I'd expect a profit upgrade for VML (once they start turning one )


----------



## waterbottle (11 November 2021)

Up by a big amount today. Besides Nd prices going higher, this is the only other news I can find... Looks like a positive feedback loop for VML









						Greenland bans uranium mining, blocking vast rare earths project
					

The ban affects the Kvanefjeld rare earths project, one of the world’s biggest, as it would have produced  uranium as a by-product.




					www.mining.com


----------



## barney (11 November 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Up by a big amount today.




Always gotta watch out for the "BIG W" supermarket trades during retracements   

No cheering till it breaks above 065-066, but so far so good


----------



## waterbottle (13 November 2021)

barney said:


> Always gotta watch out for the "BIG W" supermarket trades during retracements
> 
> No cheering till it breaks above 065-066, but so far so good
> 
> View attachment 132736







Judging by the higher highs that Neodymium is fetching, the trouble that Lynas has with shipping ore and the Greenland result, VML should be hitting new highs too.


----------



## aus_trader (14 November 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Up by a big amount today. Besides Nd prices going higher, this is the only other news I can find... Looks like a positive feedback loop for VML
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I have given friendly warning (not financial advice) about the environmental risk of trying to mine in Greenland with regards to GGG in the past in various posts and in speculative portfolio around the time of purchasing NTU in the past.

Hope no one is holding GGG.


----------



## spratty84 (12 December 2021)

On Thursday i bought another parcel of 250000 now im up to a holding of 1000000. Im in it for the long haul and im going to see vital out till 2027 to 2030 once it is operations are fully developed. If Geoff and his mates can keep executing like they are now its going to be a handy pay day, but its a long way to go.


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## waterbottle (12 December 2021)

Some valid criticism in other forums is that a DFS has not yet been completed for the Nechalacho site and the obvious large number of shares on issue dilute the share price. 
Should be getting announcements soon RE: receipt of ore for processing and updates on whether or not they will proceed with their HREE acquisitions.


----------



## waterbottle (16 December 2021)

Hmmmm radio silence....

Was expecting to hear something about the recent HREE acquisitions or possibly Tanzania.
Only change to the website seems to be a new background....


----------



## spratty84 (19 December 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Hmmmm radio silence....
> 
> Was expecting to hear something about the recent HREE acquisitions or possibly Tanzania.
> Only change to the website seems to be a new background....



I have been thinking the same thing hopefully saving some news for the new year


----------



## sptrawler (19 December 2021)

waterbottle said:


> Some valid criticism in other forums is that a DFS has not yet been completed for the Nechalacho site and the obvious large number of shares on issue dilute the share price.
> Should be getting announcements soon RE: receipt of ore for processing and updates on whether or not they will proceed with their HREE acquisitions.



How bad is the weather, up where the project sites are, is the lack of info due to lack of access for drilling?


----------



## waterbottle (19 December 2021)

sptrawler said:


> How bad is the weather, up where the project sites are, is the lack of info due to lack of access for drilling?



Not too sure. 

The demand for rare earths  is still there as evidenced by the price for Neodymium and the performance of Lynas Corp shares which have had a near 50% increase over the past 3 months compared to VMLs decrease. 

It calls into question the companies ability to deliver. Granted interruptions are to be expected with any complicated projects although VML have had a habit of making some sort of announcement every 2-3 weeks, which would make them overdue at this rate.


----------



## sptrawler (28 January 2022)

An update on VML progress, sounds like a long road, as we thought.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02479909-6A1074227?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> An update on VML progress, sounds like a long road, as we thought.
> 
> 
> 
> https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02479909-6A1074227?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4




Interesting.

So we are behind schedule for mining but on the plus side, we might be getting a resource upgrade this summer.

Things are moving at a glacial pace....


----------



## spratty84 (28 January 2022)

The main thing i want to see is product getting sold and having some cash flow towards expansion. Also a mine expansion plan to give us some scale to what they are thinking to would be nice. I always planned on a holding  period to 2027/30  to see through the expansion phase.


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

spratty84 said:


> The main thing i want to see is product getting sold and having some cash flow towards expansion. Also a mine expansion plan to give us some scale to what they are thinking to would be nice. I always planned on a holding  period to 2027/30  to see through the expansion phase.




2027/2030 expansion is way too long IMO... There are already MOUs dependent on output from Nechalacho on 2025. The original plan was for output by 2025.
At this rate, there will be other producers online with bigger outputs before VML...


----------



## spratty84 (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> 2027/2030 expansion is way too long IMO... There are already MOUs dependent on output from Nechalacho on 2025. The original plan was for output by 2025.
> At this rate, there will be other producers online with bigger outputs before VML..


----------



## spratty84 (28 January 2022)

Yep i do realise that, they do need to get a wiggle on a little bit. My plan was to give them a couple years of full production to see there potential. But things do change of course and im not silly enough to hold on to a company that sits on there hands and does not turn over a cent. We will have a better idea over the next couple years of vital future prospects.


----------



## waterbottle (28 January 2022)

spratty84 said:


> Yep i do realise that, they do need to get a wiggle on a little bit. My plan was to give them a couple years of full production to see there potential. But things do change of course and im not silly enough to hold on to a company that sits on there hands and does not turn over a cent. We will have a better idea over the next couple years of vital future prospects.




I agree. 

I gave them quite a bit of slack during Q3/Q4 2021 given it was a new company, but I think we've all seen several other RE companies fly past VML in regards to share price. Granted there is only so much a company can do, but still - it hurts!
Personally, I've reduced the size of my holdings (I think most can glean why from my previous posts).

I think the other factor that long-term holders need to appreciate is the fact that management *will* change. Many investors, including myself, have placed their faith in Geoff's & the team's efforts and their ability to deliver. However, the timeframes that are being discussed in this thread are 5+ years. The probability that the same leadership will still be present over that time frame is slim, as it seems executives in junior miners tend to jump around and explore other ventures (as is the case with some of VMLs own execs). 

Anyhow, there is a great potential here - no doubt. My fear is that it will remain just that - potential, never materialised. Hence my redistribution.


----------



## sptrawler (28 January 2022)

waterbottle said:


> I agree.
> 
> I gave them quite a bit of slack during Q3/Q4 2021 given it was a new company, but I think we've all seen several other RE companies fly past VML in regards to share price. Granted there is only so much a company can do, but still - it hurts!
> Personally, I've reduced the size of my holdings (I think most can glean why from my previous posts).
> ...



All true waterbottle, I suppose it depends on the timeframe and amount of money being risked, this is my first flutter into RE and it isn't much.
But I remember when I was at work 11 years ago, one of the guys on my shift was raving about rare earths, he bought a load of Lynas at 7c from memory.
When I catch up with him at the Xmas get together, I will ask him how it went and if he still has them.


----------



## sptrawler (1 February 2022)

A good read for those with an interest in VML


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02481502-6A1074994?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## waterbottle (1 February 2022)

Another announcement - VML confirms 1000x1000kg bags were mined instead of the 1000x500kg bags listed in their half year report.


----------



## barney (9 March 2022)

Been out and about for a while.

I see a bit of "caution" creeping in from some of the above posts regarding VML's short term future

Nothing has changed in my view (although I suspect we may/may not? need another small cap raise next Quarter just to hold the fort.)

I have not sold any and dont intend to at this point. In fact I was seriously starting to consider buying more.

Recent price action is showing a "change of gears" 

The recent few months 'chug-chug' is nothing out of the ordinary for a rising Spec play, and really it has held up pretty well in my view.

My chart mumblings below tell the story I am seeing ... (Messy chart, but so is my room!! )  

Back above 053 could see some "quick" action in my humble opinion.  


I don't bother trading VML any more, but this should be on "Trader's Radar" over the next few days.


----------



## spratty84 (11 March 2022)

Hey could someone please explain what the otcqb listing in the us means? Is it a platform to trade vital metals asx listed stock in the us? Cheers


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2022)

spratty84 said:


> Hey could someone please explain what the otcqb listing in the us means? Is it a platform to trade vital metals asx listed stock in the us?



_The OTCQB is the *mid-tier OTC equity market*, which lists primarily early-stage and developing companies in the U.S. and international markets. OTCQB companies must meet certain minimum reporting standards, pass a bid test, and undergo annual verification._

OTC stands for Over The Counter. As explained to me for a micro-cap I hold, as an ASX primary listing, many Family Offices and Institutional Investment Houses don't have in their mandates to buy other than on US exchanges. For a local (ASX) company to go global and especially get into the US market, they need a compliance-lite place to allow get exposure and hopefully transactional market. But the reality is that getting the listing is arduous and can take 18 months and, even when it happens, trades tend to be few and far between.


----------



## waterbottle (11 March 2022)

Remains speculative.
UCore's subsidiary has received notice of resignations from their executive team before the RapidSX pilot plant is up and running.... Sounds like trouble for an off-take partner.

Good to see that they're trying to now trying to plan out how they will mine Tardiff. Interestingly now being rebranded as an HREE site... Likely because Kipawa will fall through...

It's on my watch list but I've been out for a while now


----------



## spratty84 (11 March 2022)

Cheers for the replies 👍 its appreciated


----------



## waterbottle (11 March 2022)

The gamble here is VML producing and executing a plan for Tardiff in a timely manner.


----------



## barney (28 March 2022)

barney said:


> Back above 053 could see some "quick" action in my humble opinion.




Pretty much gone to script.   Broke the 053 level and worked higher for a few days

Short term Traders are/have taken their quick 10%  profits for a few days work today (Bit better than Bank Interest )


The 055 level now looks base line Support.  The 060 level is the nut that might take some cracking. If either direction gets broken with momentum, we will know for sure where it heads in the short term.  

I'm backing consolidation between 055 and 059 till short term traders are finished and new positions are determined.

Then 060 can be taken out in an orderly "break-out" and I can afford to eat steak again!


----------



## frugal.rock (28 March 2022)

barney said:


> Then 060 can be taken out in an orderly "break-out" and I can afford to eat steak again!



Gee @barney , haven't you heard?
Steak is the new "unobtanium" due to inflation, unless you call roadkill "steak" ?
(Best to collect ya roadkill early before the sun and flies and spraypaint git it...🤣 )


----------



## barney (28 March 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Gee @barney , haven't you heard?
> Steak is the new "unobtanium" due to inflation, unless you call roadkill "steak" ?
> (Best to collect ya roadkill early before the sun and flies and spraypaint git it...🤣 )




As always Rock, you have taken my knowledge base to a new level.

Who would have known that Unobtanium is actually a word.  

It sounds suspiciously like a modern disease (predominantly in young men  )  caused by too much nude sun bathing!



My obvious lack of linguistic comprehension aside,   *VML VWAP* finished the day at 058 --ish.    

Pessimistically I could suggest that the "Traders" are searching for more buyers to sell into (in the short/very short term),

But given the VWAP, I'd suggest, they are also happy to accumulate at just a couple of points lower (in the short term)

Therefore price wise, I think, short term neutral, but medium term positive .... all good in my opinion till proven otherwise  


Rock-on !


----------



## frugal.rock (28 March 2022)

__





						Unobtainium - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 March 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Didn't go for the American spelling?

An alternative spelling, *unobtanium*, is sometimes used, perhaps based more closely on the spelling of actual metals like titanium and uranium


----------



## waterbottle (28 March 2022)

Some good price action today. Looks like it's involving a couple of rare earth miners (see ARU). Will be interested to see their plan for Nechalacho which now supposedly contains HREEs...


----------



## barney (4 April 2022)

Bit of action at the station this morning.

Interest free loan of $5 million from the Canadian Government  $5 million Loan

Hopefully the 061 level will get locked in as Support from here on.  

A Close 063 or higher on Volume would be a good start


----------



## frugal.rock (4 April 2022)

The current run actually looks like the most sustainable run its had over a yearly chart....






What time are you firing up the BBQ @barney ?
😅
Scotch fillet, chicken sausages & rissoles might be in order? 🤣


----------



## waterbottle (4 April 2022)

Nice work lads, glad I bought back in


----------



## frugal.rock (5 April 2022)

Volumes looking good.
Inside day today. 
If ree is in flavour tomorrow, could see a close above the 7.0 mark ?
Beef wellingtons and Fillet mignon would be on order then please Mr @barney ?😃


----------



## barney (6 April 2022)

barney said:


> Hopefully the 061 level will get locked in as Support from here on.
> 
> A Close 063 or higher on Volume would be a good start




The current run was nice but it was looking a bit hot so the customary profit taking (and possibly a little loss taking for the late buyers into the 07's unfortunately)

We cracked the 060 egg very easily so that 061 Support looks solid (maybe even 063 given the Volume profile of the last couple of moves.

Plenty more waves to ride with this little battler, but having the backing of the Canadian Government is a big plus.   

VML got their early slice of the Gov support with the interest free $5 million.  Probably safe to say, if we need more in the future, the Gov will be happy to oblige.  Certainly a bonus for shareholders with limited dilution/cap raises.


----------



## frugal.rock (6 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> If ree is in flavour tomorrow, could see a close above the 7.0 mark



REE not in favour today.
Out of a watchlist of 25 REE stocks,
76% of them down an average of 5.6%, 
16% flat, 
8% of them up an average of 4.6%

One could say, VML had an above average day. 😋


----------



## barney (20 April 2022)

Trading Halt till 10.15am  

Probably to announce the German MV Company  Shaeffler just signed a supply deal with ReeTec.  

As we know, ReeTec and VML are in a healthy partnership arrangement. 

Pre-Market is showing only modest signs of excitement at his stage.


----------



## Austwide (20 April 2022)

barney said:


> Trading Halt till 10.15am
> 
> Probably to announce the German MV Company  Shaeffler just signed a supply deal with ReeTec.
> 
> ...



Request for Trading Halt Vital Metals Limited (Vital or the Company) hereby requests a trading halt under Listing Rule 17.1 from the ASX effective immediately, pending an announcement to update the market on Vital’s offtake arrangements and clarify a news article released by Reuters titled “EV parts maker Schaeffler signs first of a kind European rare earth deal” concerning the Company’s Offtake partner, REEtec.

The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of an announcement regarding the above or prior to the commencement of trading on Friday, 22 April 2022.


----------



## waterbottle (20 April 2022)

This could be big. Eagerly awaiting the news here...


----------



## waterbottle (20 April 2022)

Here's the article in question:









						EV parts maker Schaeffler signs first of a kind European rare earth deal
					

German auto parts supplier Schaeffler has signed a raw materials deal to ensure the supply of rare earth magnets from Europe for its burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) motor business, an executive told Reuters.




					www.reuters.com
				




Looks like they're targeting 2024 which will coinicide with VML ramping up. VML also gets a mention in the article. Source is an executive at Schaeffler so likely to be true.
This is massive for VML if confirmed. I think we'd breach 10c IMO


----------



## spratty84 (20 April 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Here's the article in question:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Cheers for the link mate, happy days if true


----------



## waterbottle (20 April 2022)

spratty84 said:


> Cheers for the link mate, happy days if true




I can't find any information on he Schaeffer website. The value of the agreement between Schaeffer and Reetec is yet to be announced, but I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't >100 Mil.
Fortunately there is a profit sharing agreement between VML and Reetec. That would mean a 50mil turnover for VML at a market cap of 270 Mil...

Big assumption here is that VML is the supplier in question. To my knowledge there are no other suppliers for Reetec to consider:
- Lynas has ties with China + dependent on Malaysian processing).
- MP is US based and sends its product to China for processing
- there is a UK group being established, although I believe they are still in the planning phase
- there are several Australian miners, although none with Reetec agreements

Edit:

I've compared VML to LYC in my previous posts but I'll do it again... Lyc turnover of 150 Mil pq which is 600 annualised. Market cap is 8.92 billion I. E. 14x revenue. 
Meanwhile VML is a possible 50mil turnover at a 270. If the turnover is achieved, that should place it at 700 Mil market cap or a share price if 17c. This would be consistent with some of the broker reports that have been published....
Now this is excluding the premium that ESG focussed mining + ex-China mining + proximity to EU/US would attract!


----------



## barney (20 April 2022)

waterbottle said:


> This could be big. Eagerly awaiting the news here...



We might get a bit of news in AEST tomorrow after the US trades tonight.  The COO of Shaeffler indicated the value of the deal is to be announced on Wednesday (their time) States that they are "transforming" into an e-motor supplier and ramping up significantly. (Currently bearings/auto parts)

Shaeffler:

At a glance appear to have a Market Cap close to $1 Billion and turned over +$13 Billion last year for a NET $755 million (tick)

Dividend yield of +8% (tick)  

Share Price has been struggling a bit however over the last few years 

High yield and low SP ---- They should be on Traders radars particularly if good news presents 

As @waterbottle  mentioned, the deal with ReeTec is for 5 years starting 2024  so its a medium term plan

This is all foundational stuff at this stage, but VML/ReeTec are obviously being taken seriously in the market place


----------



## waterbottle (21 April 2022)

Confirmation that VML is being involved, although we still need a $ figure. This is sounds like a massive, multi-year deal. Schaeffler is a large automotive parts manufacturer. Several EU automotive groups have committed to the EV transition. VML has positioned itself nicely to take advantage of he EU market shift.
Direct from he Schaeffler website:









						Schaeffler strengthens sustainable supply chain for electric motors
					

Purchase agreement with Norwegian manufacturer REEtec AS for rare earth metals for magnets used in electric motors Schaeffler is focusing on sustainability along the entire value chain Emission-free material production is an important step towards climate neutral operations by 2040




					www.schaeffler.com
				




_“We are delighted to have signed a five-year contract with Schaeffler and to be partnering with a globally successful market leader that prioritizes sustainability and transparency in the supply chain,” says Sigve Sporstøl, CEO of REEtec AS. “This partnership will complement our overarching sales strategy and allow us to build our industrial facility for the separation of rare earths in Norway.” Based on its proprietary technology, REEtec has been separating rare earths on an industrial scale since 2019. The new plant in Herøya, near Porsgrunn in Norway, will process rare earth carbonates produced by Vital Metals in Canada. The partnership with REEtec is part of the sustainable supply chain that Schaeffler is currently in the process of establishing. The company aims to reduce the number of emissions generated by preliminary products and raw materials in the supply chain by 25 percent by 2030 (Scope 3 upstream) and is set to be carbon neutral by 2040._

Interestingly, Schaeffler will have their annual general meeting today at 6pm AEST. I'm sure there will be questions about this, but it's in German and I am not a speaker...


----------



## barney (22 April 2022)

Looks like we will get a few ticks up on the open.  The news is as expected. Positive but nothing to send the SP crazy.  It will be a good test today, as there should be plenty of Volume for anyone wishing to leave the building


----------



## waterbottle (22 April 2022)

Yes positive news that will likely be tempered by news of accelerating rate hikes in the US...


----------



## barney (22 April 2022)

Price action has followed script. The "Red Friday" kind of sealed the deal. 

Day Traders were out very early after the Open and the "Elvis" impersonators cashed in their chips

The *069* level looks to be todays "battle ground" but given the great wall of China being set at 070-072, it looks clear that there will need to be another accumulation period (retracement??) before any serious move higher from here.

All pretty much as expected.  The next major port of call is the proposed June Production announcement.  Traders will be jockeying for position between now and then.  Any serious dip before then will likely be a buying opportunity in my opinion.

(Bearing in mind I am an openly biased VML Bull and speak with lop sided tongue )


----------



## frugal.rock (22 April 2022)

Mostly in agreeable terms with what you have said Mr B, however, the post 3pm bum rush today may give an indication of next week's direction?
I feel this 5 day chart tells a story. It takes a decent churn to make butter.






Maybe I have the blinkers on @wayneL 
Do you think I could get a cuppa, or even a bag of tea leaves? Show ponies...


----------



## barney (22 April 2022)

Curiously, what did you make of the CLOSE @frugal.rock 

Between my BULL, your butter churning COWS, and @wayneL 's borrowed HORSE,

We should be able to assess where this "Noah's Ark" will head in the medium term


----------



## frugal.rock (22 April 2022)

barney said:


> Curiously, what did you make of the CLOSE



I had anticpated that it may have had a late push along, a strong close, but that didn't eventuate.  
Wasn't weak either though, supply absorbed.
Not surprising with market macro's today though. 
Have to say, that the current data and pattern is outside my scope of understanding/ experience.

Will be interested to see what it does next week though. 🧐


----------



## barney (11 May 2022)

barney said:


> it looks clear that there *will need to be another accumulation period (retracement??*) before any serious move higher from here.
> 
> All pretty much as expected.  The next major port of call is the proposed June Production announcement.  Traders will be jockeying for position between now and then.  *Any serious dip before then will likely be a buying opportunity* in my opinion.



The old trading account has taken a bit of a hit last couple of weeks and the weak MIG obviously exacerbated the anticipated retrace with VML,  but I thought the short term bottom looked in earlier today.

Given I sometimes listen to my own advice , I bought another handful today simply because it is was a buying op

Just to show I don't fib


----------



## waterbottle (24 May 2022)

Another landmark








						Canada’s first rare earth producer begins shipping concentrate
					

Vital Metals' Nechalacho rare earths mine in the Northwest Territories has begun deliveries.




					www.mining.com


----------



## barney (24 May 2022)

10:04amVMLVITALMETALCompany Presentation


----------



## barney (5 July 2022)

Rough month or so for many of the Small cap RE brigade.

I saw a $200,000 order go through a few days ago at 4.4 cents then the lid went on the SP 

In for a penny in for a pound so I picked up 2 more handfuls, 100K shares at 4.3 and 4.1 cents respectively.

Long term hold for me until there is a reason not to be

Nice to see a little positivity back on the SP at least.


----------



## peter2 (5 July 2022)

Wouldn't want to get you too excited but I noticed a bit of buying in other rare earths stocks the last few days.


----------



## barney (5 July 2022)

peter2 said:


> Wouldn't want to get you too excited but I noticed a bit of buying in other rare earths stocks the last few days.




Yeah, the sector has been very "subdued" Pete.  VML has been an "accumulate" trade for me for a long time now, so swing lows are just another reason to raid the piggy bank 

Assuming the World doesn't end, I'm really keen to see how the crystal ball looks in around 2-3 years from now.


----------



## spratty84 (5 July 2022)

barney said:


> Rough month or so for many of the Small cap RE brigade.
> 
> I saw a $200,000 order go through a few days ago at 4.4 cents then the lid went on the SP
> 
> ...



I must admit i bought 150000 more at 4 as well and im in the same boat as im planning to hold for the long term.


----------



## waterbottle (5 July 2022)

Good prices but still susceptible to near time market fluctuations. VML has history of not being able to weather storms


----------



## frugal.rock (5 July 2022)

Interesting though, the rest of the market today has generally reacted *post* the RBA 0.5% rate rise.
VML was *pre*. 😘


----------



## barney (8 July 2022)

Not any massive push price wise off the news today.  News was essentially good, with some room for improvement on the 2nd phase tailings.

Pretty tidy first run for the new Plant .... chug chug in the short term.


----------



## frugal.rock (9 July 2022)

As we humans become obsolete, rare earths containing products will be essential for automation.

Eg; @barney here on ASF hasn't been serving me drinks at all, ever.
So i replaced him with a more useful Barney. Less character, but that's beside the point after I've been served a few...

Introducing the Barney Robot.






						Robot Bar | Barney Bar and Barney Barista
					

Barney Bar serves cocktails, mocktails, softdrinks and beer while Barney Barista serves coffee and softdrinks. The robot bars are designed and manufactured by F&P Robotics and shipped worldwide.




					www.barney-bar.com


----------



## barney (9 July 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Introducing the Barney Robot.



Lol, You are a funny man @frugal.rock 

I wish I had a little more time for the "old banter" we used to partake in when the market was friendlier, lol.

It seems however that you have discovered why I am unable to partake in said ASF banter as often!


Yes I have a Robot business.  I am in fact a Robot myself,  and am AI generated (artificial intelligence for really old people!) 

For the record, my Robot mind tells me to "widen the Range" on my VML holding to decrease any chance of being stopped out, as the extra wiggle room could end up making my kidz quite wealthy!

ps It may not make *me* wealthy because I am "almost" really old! (even though I am a Robot in real life of course, lol)


(pps Please apply the appropriate weekend/Monty Python filter to any Saturday/Sunday posts, as they may contain *nuts*)


pps. On a slightly more serious note,  I am happy to Hold my  (substantial) VML holding for at least the near future

ppps. Have a good weekend!


----------



## barney (22 July 2022)

How's the serenity, lol.

Some pretty good looking numbers in the recent drilling.  Its slow going at times but I think the wait will be well worth it.


----------



## Gavin Atkinson (30 July 2022)

@barney what’s your thoughts on the CR with Lionhead Resources?


----------



## barney (31 July 2022)

Gavin Atkinson said:


> @barney what’s your thoughts on the CR with Lionhead Resources?



Hi Gav (@Gavin Atkinson) 

Yeah, not totally surprised they have gone for a cap raise but wish it was at a little higher SP

The only real negative is more dilution (SOI), 

The Co is at a pivotal stage and $30M will set them up nicely to carry on to Stage 2 of development.


Looking with my rose coloured glasses, we have a respected Investment company happy to fork out a large amount of moolah at 4 cents

$30M is obviously not small change so it's a big vote of confidence.

There has been an obvious "cap" on the SP in recent weeks with 4.4 cents being the lid (in my view)

I'm backing the SP to break higher now that the cap raise is out in the open.  We shall see


----------



## spratty84 (1 August 2022)

I just bought another 200000 at .042 to make up for the extra stock which is going to be in circulation. Its a good thing they are trying to keep debt low, with a vote of confidence from some big players. It would be nice to have another offtake agreement signed in the near term but im in it for the long haul.


----------



## barney (1 August 2022)

spratty84 said:


> I just bought another 200000 at .042 to make up for the extra stock which is going to be in circulation. Its a good thing they are trying to keep debt low, with a vote of confidence from some big players. It would be nice to have another offtake agreement signed in the near term but im in it for the long haul.




I agree long term that should be a positive buy @spratty84 

A little supply creeping in at the 042 level, but for any retailers who want out at the moment there are + 17M bidding at 040-041 so holding above the cap raise price is a positive sign.

Price action between now and Aug 10 (and just after Aug 10 when Lionhead Shares  become available on market) will tell the shorter term story, but I'm still punting that the SP will be back over 044 prior to Aug 10 as long as we have no external mad market events.


----------



## frugal.rock (5 August 2022)

I took a small position on 0.045 this week (yesterday).
Had also wanted 0.042, but had to juggle other things last week, and didn't get back to it... grrr.
Green government legislation business yesterday reminded me of Vital.
Plan is a  +12 month hold as I thought the chart looked ok.


----------



## barney (5 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I took a small position on 0.045 this week (yesterday).
> Had also wanted 0.042, but had to juggle other things last week, and didn't get back to it... grrr.




042- or 045 won't be too much different if things go as planned Rock, but I understand your annoyance.

Price action is going as planned/suggested a couple of days back

The short term "million dollar" question is;

Now that the SP has edged a bit higher post cap raise announcement, (but  pre conversion of new shares), 

Will/how many of the recent new "investors" might cash in their chips for a short term 10+% gain?? (around Aug 10)

My eternal optimism in the Company suggests there may be a percentage of sellers from 10th August for a few days, but the  vote of confidence from our recent $30M Lionhead investor should see a steady increase in buying to at least 20% higher/ 048 and hopefully + 5 cents in the short term (general market optimism considered)

Interesting times for this minnow


----------



## frugal.rock (7 August 2022)

A couple of months old now.
Advertorial.


----------



## barney (7 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> A couple of months old now.
> Advertorial.




Thanks for the recap Rock. 

Definitely a good reminder of where the VML lads plan to head over the next few years.

I've followed a lot of Specs, but these chaps are possibly the only ones who have delivered on +90% of their proposed timelines/objectives, so it's hard to fault management at this stage.   

I'll be surprised if the SP does not increase substantially over the next 12-18 months based on their projections/strategies/implementation so far.

The recent cap raise obviously increases the SOI, but with a market cap of around $200M and $35M of working capital post CR

They are sitting in a tidy position compared to most Specs.  

Price action late this week after 10th Aug will be interesting.  High Volume at any level above the CR price will be positive 

In a perfect world, the Lionhead boys will stump up a few more $Million and push the SP above 5 cents by next Friday, lol


----------



## barney (10 August 2022)

barney said:


> but I'm still punting that the SP will be *back over 044 prior to Aug 10 *as long as we have no external mad market events.




Crystal balls on track at this point, lol 


barney said:


> should see a steady increase in buying to at least *20% higher/ 048* and hopefully + 5 cents in the short term (general market optimism considered)



Touched the 048 level today ........ but Supply kicked in  at 046 ... 


barney said:


> Price action late this week after 10th Aug will be interesting.  In a perfect world, the Lionhead boys will stump up a few more $Million and push the *SP above 5 cents by next Friday,* lol




10th tomorrow .... Lots of shares available from the cap raise. Will test the short term market confidence.  

OS Markets weak tonight.  5c by Friday looks a tough ask but you never know.

Chug-chug


----------



## aus_trader (16 August 2022)

Added VML to the asx listed American / North American RE stocks that looks to be in a geo-political sweet spot at the moment due to US-China tensions exacerbated by the Taiwan situation , details in Speculative Stock Portfolio


----------



## barney (31 August 2022)

Geoff Atkins must have had some serious words with the new Lion lads.  Been replaced with an interim CEO from Lionhead till a full time position is filled.

Never great to see friction at ground level. SP down as low as 039 so far today

Recent Cap Raise was at 040 with Lionhead stumping up $30 mill so 040 holding is a psychologically important level in the short term.

Geoff leaving changes the dynamics of the Company a bit.  3 month initial contract with Russel Bradford means probably be at least a couple of months before a new candidate arises. Critical they find someone experienced in RE.

Given the abrupt nature of GA's termination, I hope they have someone in the pipeline to ease the nervous punters.


----------



## spratty84 (31 August 2022)

barney said:


> Geoff Atkins must have had some serious words with the new Lion lads.  Been replaced with an interim CEO from Lionhead till a full time position is filled.
> 
> Never great to see friction at ground level. SP down as low as 039 so far today
> 
> ...



Yep im very disappointed with the news i was hoping mr atkins would see through the project to its potential


----------



## waterbottle (1 September 2022)

Wow, Geoff leaving was certainly on the cards (IIRC his contract was due to end in 2023 regardless) but didn't think it'd happen with a temporary CEO.... 

Unfortunately another kick in the guts for long term holders. Share price has definitely not performed despite the supposed importance of REs and recent commercial developments with Reetec et al., unlike lithium miners who experience exponential price rises on speculation alone.... 

The lacklustre performance may just be a reflection of the industry. Rare earths and renewables will have to take a back seat during an upcoming recession, particularly when countries are desperate to secure energy that they can use immediately and effectively I. E. Fossil fuels.


----------



## barney (9 September 2022)

Been a tough couple of months on the Trading punt.  VML has been on the long and winding down trend since last April.

Last few days have looked like some accumulation going on around the 039-040 level.  

After today's Ann there seems to be even a little more vibe of positivity in the price action.  

If 042 gets taken out in the last 10 minutes of trade or at the Close, it would be a tidy finish to the week. We live in hope


----------



## barney (9 September 2022)

Todays Ann (non-sensitive)







Just before the CLOSE:


----------



## sptrawler (9 September 2022)

It will be interesting to see if the new CEO is less risk averse and decides to take on more debt and capital raising to accelerate things.
It is a bit of a shame that there is management issues, the steady, steady approach they have been travelling has sat well with me, so hopefully GA's leaving isn't due to a change of direction.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 September 2022)

ASX / Media Announcement 
23 September 2022 

VITAL METALS UNVEILS RARE EARTH PROCESSING PLANT IN SASKATOON 

Highlights 

- Vital officially unveils multi-million-dollar, ~3,000m2 rare earth processing facility in Saskatoon, Canada 

- 200 leaders in the global rare earth industry gathered to acknowledge Vital’s responsibly sourced rare earth supply chain, with support shown by Government 

- Elected Indigenous leaders recognised Vital for its Indigenous participation, community engagement and innovative reduction of environmental impacts 

- Beneficiated ore from Vital’s Nechalacho project will be processed at the facility to a high purity, mixed rare earth carbonate product.


----------



## aus_trader (10 October 2022)

Terminating the Kipawa purchase agreement...





Probably better to conserve the cash in the current environment


----------



## waterbottle (12 October 2022)

aus_trader said:


> Terminating the Kipawa purchase agreement...
> 
> View attachment 147866
> 
> Probably better to conserve the cash in the current environment



This was always going to be a pipe dream for VML. There was a strong record of community opposition from he indigenous peoples to attempts made by predecessors to mine the same area! 

North T is all they have IMO, which makes them a light REE supplier at best. Unfortunately, their business is now tied to Europe (Reetec + Schafer) which seems to be charging into a recession. 

It doesn't look good IMO for VML, particularly if they plan to do any additional cap raises


----------



## aus_trader (13 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> This was always going to be a pipe dream for VML. There was a strong record of community opposition from he indigenous peoples to attempts made by predecessors to mine the same area!
> 
> North T is all they have IMO, which makes them a light REE supplier at best. Unfortunately, their business is now tied to Europe (Reetec + Schafer) which seems to be charging into a recession.
> 
> It doesn't look good IMO for VML, particularly if they plan to do any additional cap raises



Interesting point you made about their offtake partner being European. I would have preferred if they kept some of the production to sell directly across the border to the RE hungry USA.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 October 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Unfortunately, their business is now tied to Europe (Reetec + Schafer) which seems to be charging into a recession.





aus_trader said:


> Interesting point you made about their offtake partner being European. I would have preferred if they kept some of the production to sell directly across the border to the RE hungry USA.



I'm looking at this with the opinion of, there's still bull trends in a bear market.

EV's manufacturing demands Ree. 
The whole EV and stored energy area is really the bull for the "transition" ahead.
I'm just as bullish on urea/ phosphate side of things too.


----------



## aus_trader (13 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm looking at this with the opinion of, there's still bull trends in a bear market.
> 
> EV's manufacturing demands Ree.
> The whole EV and stored energy area is really the bull for the "transition" ahead.
> I'm just as bullish on urea/ phosphate side of things too.



I also feel the RE stocks will turn around at some point, so keeping an eye for trading opportunities in this area especially amongst the small RE companies.


----------



## waterbottle (13 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm looking at this with the opinion of, there's still bull trends in a bear market.
> 
> EV's manufacturing demands Ree.
> The whole EV and stored energy area is really the bull for the "transition" ahead.
> I'm just as bullish on urea/ phosphate side of things too.




I agree with RE requirements increasing for the green transition. But the question is whether or not VML will ever get to a point where they'll be able to take advantage of it. At the moment, North T exists as a plan with potential.
How likely is it that their plan gets executed in a financially restrictive environment? IIRC their original (2021) plan was for full production by 2025 before transitioning to Nechalacho.
Furthermore, if you were an electric vehicle manufacturer, why would you choose VML for rare earths when there are other producers available with established supply?


----------



## frugal.rock (13 October 2022)

Because it's Australian/ Canadian.

I don't feel a financially restricted environment will be much of a direct issue to the "bull" industries required for the transition.


----------



## barney (20 October 2022)

Been a tough couple of months for this little battler.  Last 2 days price action indicate at least a short term reversal of sentiment.

030   looks the low for the time being.     034 needs to break and hold on "normal" Volume before we can call it a trend reversal.

Given Lionhead threw some serious cash in at 040,  I am hopeful that the worst of the downturn is done with.


----------



## spratty84 (21 October 2022)

barney said:


> Been a tough couple of months for this little battler.  Last 2 days price action indicate at least a short term reversal of sentiment.
> 
> 030   looks the low for the time being.     034 needs to break and hold on "normal" Volume before we can call it a trend reversal.
> 
> ...


----------



## spratty84 (21 October 2022)

Hoping so mate


----------



## frugal.rock (21 November 2022)

21 November 2022 

FORMER ROXGOLD PRESIDENT AND CEO JOHN DORWARD JOINS VITAL AS MANAGING DIRECTOR 

HIGHLIGHTS 

• Former Roxgold President, CEO and Director John Dorward appointed Vital’s Managing Director, effective immediately 

• Mr Dorward led Roxgold to build the Yaramoko Gold Mine in Burkina Faso in less than four years before Roxgold was acquired by Fortuna Silver Mines Inc for US$884 million 

• Mr Dorward has a strong background across finance and resources, having held senior roles including Vice President of Business Development, Chief Financial Officer and Commercial Executive at Canadian and Australian-based companies


----------



## sptrawler (21 November 2022)

Coming into winter again, so progress could be slow, hopefully they start and accelerate production come spring.


----------



## barney (2 December 2022)

Generally with Specs, the best time to buy is when you are holding, and the downward pressure is just about to break your spirit  , lol

I've reluctantly had to sell a lot of my holding in VML recently because the collateral damage was getting serious (I did own over 5 million shares however)

The downside aside, I liked todays price action.   

Lionhead took a big stake in this little battler at .04 cents per share and the current SP represents around a 30% Loss on their investment.

Chances of them letting that continue much further are pretty slim (in my opinion).  

Chances that they have been happy to see the SP drop so far so that either them or their associates have been able to mop up the suffering losing shareholders shares at a discount, seems a logical assumption according to my "conspiratorial nature"   

With all that in mind, I have started to again "add a few" to my core holding which I still held.

Todays fairly wide ranging bar with an obvious "tail" and finishing on the day's high on High Volume tells an interesting story

The story may change of course, but the 'short term' story (in my humble opinion), is a Buy (again/finally ).

We shall see.


----------



## sptrawler (2 December 2022)

Thanks @barney for the upbeat scenario, I'm still sitting on my stash of VML and if it plays out as my spec flutters usually do.
There will be a consolidation.


----------



## barney (2 December 2022)

sptrawler said:


> There will be a consolidation.




Definitely a possibility Homer.

A consolidation has been suggested for VML for some time, but I think management (now new) will not look to that until more runs are on the board, so to speak.  VML has always been a long play .... The current SP could drop further of course, but assuming even "luck", it should be a RE producer/player with some credibility a couple of years down the track, and into the future. Hard one to time just at the moment.


----------



## aus_trader (6 December 2022)

barney said:


> Generally with Specs, the best time to buy is when you are holding, and the downward pressure is just about to break your spirit  , lol
> 
> I've reluctantly had to sell a lot of my holding in VML recently because the collateral damage was getting serious (I did own over 5 million shares however)
> 
> ...



That's some serious backing of a small/micro cap play @barney. Hope you have some diversification with your investments.

I still hold the small holding in VML. Don't know when RE stocks will make another move. Hopefully not too far away. There was a bit of price jump in ARR of late and ARU has been running hot for a while...


----------



## barney (6 December 2022)

aus_trader said:


> That's some serious backing of a small/micro cap play @barney. Hope you have some diversification with your investments.




It was a serious backing indeed Aus.  Bearing in mind I did 'invest' in + 2 or 3 of those million shares between .006 and .010 so even selling some of my Stock recently, it was well in profit.  Unfortunately, well down from the paper profit I was holding a while back however.  

Bad trading on my part as I mentioned on another Thread .... Falling in love with a Stock is always fraught with danger! (as I should know, lol)

Currently I am unsure of "Lionhead's" motives with VML.  No doubt they have acted with "profit" in mind. The big question with Specs is, whether the profit radiates to the rank and file shareholders.  Interesting times in the Rare Earth sector with much "ambivalence" manifesting itself in recent times   

As Hewy Lewis succinctly put in recent years, ..... VML is possibly currently "Walkin on a Thin Line"


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## spratty84 (6 December 2022)

I must admit i have added a couple small parcels recently and are currently sitting on a paper loss. But im going to wait out until they start delivering proper volumes to reetec to see how things look then.


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## sptrawler (10 December 2022)

Good article on Canada's push to capitalise on critical minerals for renewables.

https://www.mining.com/canada-places-big-bets-on-critical-minerals/


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## Dona Ferentes (22 December 2022)

barney said:


> Been a tough couple of months for this little battler.



_so, if the pivot good or bad? Can 2,2c be the line in the sand?_

*VITAL PIVOTS STRATEGY* AND _PROVIDES SASKATOON
PROCESSING FACILITY CAPITAL COST UPDATE_
• Vital provides a strategic update on its pivot to a sharper focus on developing the world-class Tardiff Deposit at the Nechalacho Project
• Vital plans to complete the calcine circuit at its Saskatoon rare earths processing facility in Q3 CY2023
• Completion of the rare earth hydrometallurgical leaching, purification and rare earth precipitation circuits has been deferred until CY2024
• Vital to produce an intermediate rare earths oxide product for potential sale to third parties until REEtec’s facility is completed in late 2024
• Revised costs to complete Saskatoon Facility estimated at A$40.8 million
• Drilling program at the Tardiff deposit to upgrade confidence of the inferred resource scheduled to commence in Q1 CY2023
• Infill and extension drilling at Nechalacho’s high-grade North T deposit is also planned for 2023
• Drilling program to include an initial assessment of the potential xenotime target between the North T and Tardiff deposits


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## waterbottle (22 December 2022)

So sad...

Only reason a company like this survived was due to the lax post-covid monetary policies.
Production should have already started and they should have diversified already (they had 2 years to do so). Instead all their eggs are in one basket (REEtec), their focus is on Europe (which is in a war-time recession) and they've bungled an arguably strategic and favourable mining site in the pursuit of some HREE dream with Kipawa & Zeus.

This is a sunk venture IMO. Costs will continue to be revised upwards, and there's no way they're going to be able to cover those costs without further captial raises and share dilution.


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## frugal.rock (22 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> so, if the pivot good or bad? Can 2,2c be the line in the sand?



Bit of a mixed bag eh. 
Had the same question myself after reading it.
Trying to play with the "pivot" term though looks a bit ordinary.


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## sptrawler (22 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Bit of a mixed bag eh.
> Had the same question myself after reading it.
> Trying to play with the "pivot" term though looks a bit ordinary.



When the trajectory gets cloudy, the $hit pit gets mushy.
I do hold, but I haven't got my gonads hanging on an outcome. 🤣


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## barney (23 December 2022)

Disappointing in many ways.  Long term limbo time for now.  Had to sell a lot on the way down but still hold 1M as a momento/punishment, lol.     Certainly not over at this stage, but the time frame will put pressure on the SP for a while. 

+70 million traded so far today so plenty of bargain hunters getting on board.  Probably time to start accumulating for those with time on their hands. Lionhead make me a bit nervous though!   Hopefully no one lost their shirt off the back of my previous enthusiasm.  I'm certainly back to my basic Bonds T-shirts with this one now.

On the lookout for my next great white hope, whilst carefully placing the remainder of my VML neatly in the bottom drawer, lol


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## aus_trader (25 December 2022)

All good barnz, I also traded out a little bit, but nowhere near the top. Looking back, glad I did. Still hold a small position, oh well better put that in the bottom drawer for rummaging through forgotten treasures someday in the future...

Overall, a bit disappointed with the VML share price of late, while other RE plays like ARU have done well in terms of share price appreciation...











Don't forget to keep us posted on your next discovery mate 🙏


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