# CDR - Commander Communications



## el_ninj0 (22 August 2005)

Full Year 2005 Results released today, massive drop of 20% in share value. I expect a jump back tommorow in the price, as this is a solid company. Share price dropped due to the aquisition of the iBurst wireless network, which is a great buy in my opinion. Whats everyone else's thoughts?


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## Dreamer (23 August 2005)

Was suprised it dropped so much after announcing greater than forecasted profits.  I bought in at 2.06 yesterday hoping it would bounce back today, but will be happy to hang onto this one for awhile.


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## Dreamer (30 August 2005)

Closed at $2.23 today.


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## Dutchy3 (8 January 2006)

This ones capable of moving strongly. Not all that favourable for the Bulls either.

Still, this little bit of hestiation during December 2005 has me adding to my watchlist.


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## Nicks (9 February 2006)

My thoughts:
CDR - can only get better.

has hovered betwen $2 and $2.60

excellent strategic and solid business

Regardless of VGL takeover outcome CDR are in an excellent position to grab Fed / State Govt IT tenders and outsourcing and move on with their Comms business. ICT is moving fast people, wireless crosses the boundaries of Telecomms and IT, of which CDR are leaders in both and well positioned.

They are also initiating Commander Business centres (similar to Telstra shops and Optus shops). They will be the next big Telecom/IT next to Telstra and Optus. It will end up being a big 3 or 4 of which CDR will be one.


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## stink (22 August 2006)

I to have been keeping my eye on this one, if its a positive day today I'm in on this.

Cheers Stink


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## Ken (6 October 2006)

CDR?  Where's she headed???

Westpac broking values it at $2.30

Now $2.05.

Worth exposure to this sector for the long term?

Looking for another sector to add to the portfolio.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (6 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> CDR?  Where's she headed???
> 
> Westpac broking values it at $2.30
> 
> ...




Ken This company is still incorporating VGL.......like you said re Westpac CDR is a company that they have been touting for somewhile. Its on my pending possible buys!   :sleeping:


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## barney (6 October 2006)

Hi guys, B4 I stuffed up with poor investing decisions, CDR was one of my favorites.............Solid company....Sp tends to cycle through various months..........imo if you buy in at less than $2 (hopefully $1.80-$1.90) you are almost guaranteed a 10-20% return within a few months..........5 times better than bank interest!!.............Not a high flyer, but consistent.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (6 October 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Hi guys, B4 I stuffed up with poor investing decisions, CDR was one of my favorites.............Solid company....Sp tends to cycle through various months..........imo if you buy in at less than $2 (hopefully $1.80-$1.90) you are almost guaranteed a 10-20% return within a few months..........5 times better than bank interest!!.............Not a high flyer, but consistent.




Damn right! but there are other cyclical stocks as similar as this share......THG ,IAG,and ARQ to name a few. Would I recommend these shares .....I doubt it.
eg >CDR ...............you can do the maths! 
06-10-2006 $2.020 $2.060 $1.995 $2.050 560,078 
05-10-2006 $2.020 $2.040 $2.010 $2.030 238,652 
04-10-2006 $2.010 $2.020 $2.000 $2.010 553,029 
03-10-2006 $1.970 $2.040 $1.965 $2.000 2,359,198 
02-10-2006 $1.950 $1.970 $1.940 $1.960 43,718 
29-09-2006 $1.940 $1.940 $1.920 $1.935 251,489 
28-09-2006 $1.965 $1.965 $1.920 $1.920 553,761 
27-09-2006 $1.950 $1.980 $1.945 $1.960 1,008,652 
26-09-2006 $1.920 $1.940 $1.910 $1.940 679,022 
25-09-2006 $1.860 $1.930 $1.855 $1.910 609,543 
22-09-2006 $1.860 $1.860 $1.840 $1.840 534,656 
21-09-2006 $1.870 $1.920 $1.870 $1.875 1,952,948 
20-09-2006 $1.880 $1.900 $1.875 $1.880 682,044 
19-09-2006 $1.880 $1.930 $1.880 $1.900 1,496,851 
18-09-2006 $1.860 $1.880 $1.860 $1.880 588,118 
15-09-2006 $1.855 $1.870 $1.855 $1.855 327,597 
14-09-2006 $1.870 $1.880 $1.855 $1.860 277,359 
13-09-2006 $1.870 $1.900 $1.860 $1.880 377,862 
12-09-2006 $1.840 $1.875 $1.840 $1.860 257,180 
11-09-2006 $1.880 $1.885 $1.815 $1.850 289,761 
08-09-2006 $1.880 $1.910 $1.870 $1.880 109,400 
07-09-2006 $1.890 $1.925 $1.870 $1.925 95,053 
06-09-2006 $1.940 $1.950 $1.915 $1.920 366,761 
05-09-2006 $1.915 $1.950 $1.915 $1.950 140,565 
04-09-2006 $1.910 $1.925 $1.910 $1.915 450,241 
01-09-2006 $1.915 $1.920 $1.870 $1.870 325,927 
31-08-2006 $1.965 $1.975 $1.940 $1.970 396,949 
30-08-2006 $1.955 $1.975 $1.955 $1.965 206,798 
29-08-2006 $2.000 $2.010 $1.965 $1.970 684,322 
28-08-2006 $1.800 $2.100 $1.790 $1.990 3,427,298 
25-08-2006 $1.825 $1.850 $1.795 $1.810 695,119 
24-08-2006 $1.880 $1.880 $1.815 $1.820 396,784 
23-08-2006 $1.860 $1.880 $1.850 $1.880 165,751 
22-08-2006 $1.850 $1.860 $1.830 $1.860 215,477 
21-08-2006 $1.845 $1.865 $1.805 $1.840 630,651 
18-08-2006 $1.800 $1.865 $1.795 $1.830 375,244 
17-08-2006 $1.805 $1.820 $1.790 $1.810 290,070 
16-08-2006 $1.825 $1.835 $1.780 $1.785 1,172,036 
15-08-2006 $1.840 $1.840 $1.800 $1.820 379,372 
14-08-2006 $1.835 $1.865 $1.830 $1.850 517,451 
11-08-2006 $1.850 $1.850 $1.830 $1.840 1,379,493 
10-08-2006 $1.855 $1.860 $1.845 $1.860 393,610 
09-08-2006 $1.885 $1.890 $1.855 $1.855 321,661 
08-08-2006 $1.875 $1.905 $1.875 $1.900 630,332 
07-08-2006 $1.880 $1.905 $1.870 $1.875 208,941 
04-08-2006 $1.900 $1.900 $1.860 $1.875 250,484 
03-08-2006 $1.870 $1.920 $1.865 $1.920 163,136 
02-08-2006 $1.880 $1.880 $1.860 $1.860 677,855 
01-08-2006 $1.935 $1.945 $1.890 $1.890 139,049 
31-07-2006 $1.955 $1.955 $1.910 $1.940 138,126 
28-07-2006 $1.965 $1.965 $1.900 $1.900 238,764 
27-07-2006 $1.880 $1.970 $1.880 $1.970 496,682 
26-07-2006 $1.935 $1.935 $1.875 $1.880 113,125 
25-07-2006 $1.900 $1.950 $1.880 $1.950 283,939 
24-07-2006 $1.915 $1.920 $1.870 $1.885 149,785 
21-07-2006 $1.930 $1.930 $1.910 $1.910 434,465 
20-07-2006 $1.930 $1.950 $1.915 $1.930 372,772 
19-07-2006 $1.900 $1.940 $1.900 $1.905 64,389 
18-07-2006 $1.870 $1.910 $1.870 $1.910 487,100 
17-07-2006 $1.890 $1.900 $1.830 $1.870 235,653 
14-07-2006 $1.920 $1.920 $1.895 $1.900 288,861 
13-07-2006 $1.960 $1.960 $1.930 $1.930 224,971 
12-07-2006 $2.030 $2.030 $1.965 $1.965 382,430 
11-07-2006 $2.040 $2.040 $1.985 $2.000 625,961 
10-07-2006 $2.080 $2.090 $2.030 $2.050 118,749 
07-07-2006 $2.070 $2.080 $2.010 $2.070 231,059 
06-07-2006 $2.030 $2.070 $2.010


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## barney (6 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Damn right! but there are other cyclical stocks as similar as this share......THG ,IAG,and ARQ to name a few. Would I recommend these shares .....I doubt it.
> eg >CDR ...............you can do the maths!
> 06-10-2006 $2.020 $2.060 $1.995 $2.050 560,078
> 05-10-2006 $2.020 $2.040 $2.010 $2.030 238,652
> ...





Hey 3 Vof a S, I understand that this stock is not "exciting" , but to clarify my opinion (and thats all it was)...........

Buy CDR Sept 04 $1.80  Sell Nov 04   $2.30

Buy CDR May 05  $2.00  Sell  June 05  $2.30

Buy CDR  Sept 05  $2.10  Sell  Octob 05 $2.30

Buy CDR Dec 05   $1.90  Sell Apr 05 $2.30

Buy CDR Aug 05  $1.85   Sell   (still waiting target)

Like I said not mind blowing but consistent....as long as the entry is $2 or lower


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## 3 veiws of a secret (6 October 2006)

Barney, the stats prove you're right ....and I agree with you. I'm currently playing this shuttlecock game with CML, roll on $13.91.


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## BraceFace (2 February 2007)

Insto's been buying up this one recently.
Seems like a good play after coming off recent highs and also given the potential for cooling off in resources this year. 
Pay fully franked dividend around 3%

Also the big interest in Telstra since T3 may see a rub off effect in the market sector.

Bought in today at 2.10.

Any other takers?


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## questionall_42 (2 May 2007)

SP fallen by ~20%, now around $1.60.  

ASX release is on an update on the franchisee model (6 months delay) and EBITDA revision.  

"On 28 August 2006 Commander issued guidance that its EBITDA excluding restructuring costs would be in the range of $95m to $101m. As a result of the timing of the franchise roll-out relative to the benefits, the company is revising its FY07 EBITDA guidance to be in the range of $80m to $90m excluding restructuring costs."

Pretty severe strike by the market? Given the (stable) nature of CDR and long-term contracts, I'm buying in at these levels, with a 1 year horizon.

Any opinions?


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## Gundini (2 May 2007)

Yes I jumped in as well.

Does seem a little harsh the dumping, but I suppose 20% reduction in earnings, 20% reduction in share price.

Massive long term support around the $1.70 mark, but obviously has been breached for now.

Would like to see a close around $1.70 but may be a big ask today, a big selloff indeed...


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## 3 veiws of a secret (2 May 2007)

Well I could'nt resist I checked the price carefully just could not beleive my eyes ...if it was not for the fact I was uploading files from my computer I would have entered low $1.50's.Alas the share bucked up and I caught the mid $1.60's.Still have gunpowder in my account to snatch at lower levels. Happy little trader today.:bonk:


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## quarky (8 May 2007)

i got this @ 1.70
so, will ride this out for a few weeks before selling it off.
depends on the market, and after all this *IS* a tech-stock, so it's not exactly a 'tech-boom' now is it>!?


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## quarky (15 May 2007)

damn.
stock is selling at $1.55
pretty low already.

if it drops further, me sell. 

wonder what's going on with the company, in spite of the organisational restructurings


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## quarky (22 June 2007)

this stock keeps getting lower.
i'm going to lose $$$, but i don't want to hold onto this.

disappointing trade.  not touching tech stocks.


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## BraceFace (22 June 2007)

Yes, very disappointing.
If it weren't for the franked dividend, I'd be out of this as well.
Long term keeper methinks.


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## quarky (28 June 2007)

heck, i was even going to sell it over the last 2 days,...then trading halt!



*Trading halt unsettles Commander investors*
Stuart Washington
June 28, 2007


INVESTORS in Commander Communications are bracing for a second profit downgrade after the stock went into a trading halt yesterday.

The announcement of a trading halt follows a profit downgrade in May from initial forecasts of between $95 million and $101 million to as low as $64 million, including a one-off $16 million restructuring bill.

At the time Commander blamed slow progress and disruptions from the switch of its sales force from a direct model to a franchise model, with the full effect of the changes unlikely to be felt until September 2008.

The restructuring costs were also attributed to the integration of its Volante acquisition, bought for $147 million in a hostile takeover last year.

Industry sources speculated yesterday that Volante's inclusion, which allowed Commander to go beyond selling businesses telephone capacity and equipment to offering sophisticated telephone systems and other IT services to small- to medium-sized businesses, was not progressing as well as Commander had hoped.

In February Commander reported a $5.6 million loss for the first half.

Yesterday's trading halt renews speculation about Commander as a takeover target, after its shares slumped from $2.02 before the May announcement to $1.52 when trading in the shares stopped, representing a fall of 25 per cent.

Speculation about a likely takeover has been fuelled by Perpetual increasing its stake to 12 per cent.

The business is seen as most attractive to AAPT, which recently completed its $320 million takeover of PowerTel. Telstra and Optus could also be potential suitors.

The Commander business would be a neat fit with a network owner that was seeking more traffic, with the enlarged AAPT fitting the bill most closely.


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## bumble_boo_bum (28 June 2007)

I am having a punt it will be good news for holders.  

Only because I noticed an spike in price before trading halt.  I bought in at 1.44 and saw it go to 1.42 then all of a sudden it jumped to the 1.50 ish and then the  trading halt.  I suspect some insiders getting in before the ann.  Just my guess.  Find out tomorrow I suppose.


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## bumble_boo_bum (28 June 2007)

I was wrong, The Age online:

"Business telecommunications company Commander Communications Ltd has revised its earnings downwards to $65 million from $95 million for the 2007 financial year due to delays to the launch of its franchise project."


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## TheAbyss (29 June 2007)

bumble_boo_bum said:


> I was wrong, The Age online:
> 
> "Business telecommunications company Commander Communications Ltd has revised its earnings downwards to $65 million from $95 million for the 2007 financial year due to delays to the launch of its franchise project."




At the risk of being labelled a down ramper, i am in this industry and have to say that whilst Commander have a good data base of clients they have not got the right people for their franchises. Commanders product suite (Nortel etc) are aimed at the medium to large business area however the franchises have no skill sets to sell the technology at that level as most are retirees trying to buy a glorified Telstra shop. I briefly considered buying a franchise however they are going small not large which is a negative in my view. Watch their turnover shrink even further after the franchisees come online.

In addition, at corporate level Commander have lost a lot of their account managers as they have seen sales and revenues decreasing and could see no remedy in the short to mid term future ergo commissions decreasing, so Commanders sales at the corporate level are shrinking also.

Commanders strength was built on their access to Telstra customers via a direct link to the Telstra sales force. This was lost when RSL Com obtained a piece of them. Telstra cut ties with them at that time and their sales have been in decline since that time some 4-6 years ago. Commander have yet to identify the means to obtain new customers as opposed to selling into their own data base which is constantly shrinking as not enough new customers are being found to fill the void caused by natural attrition.

This isnt to say they cannot improve however it takes time to change anything or train anybody if they can hire them.

They do have access to a great carrier grade product (IMS) which will assist them however that is at least 6-12 months away. This product lets them provide a managed service type arrangement where the customers rent IP telephones and software licencing only whilst all hardware resides at the carriers end on a monthly rental basis thus providing relatively inexpensive access to high level IP technologies for the customer and a constantly ticking metre for Commander with minimal  labour requirements. That relies on either RSL Com or another allegiance to someone like AAPT though.

Happy to discuss further

Only my opinion.


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## quarky (29 June 2007)

opened at 1.19
the market has spoken.

i'm definitely going to sell this, and incur the $8000 loss.

fed up with tech stocks.


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## barney (23 July 2007)

quarky said:


> opened at 1.19
> the market has spoken.
> 
> i'm definitely going to sell this, and incur the $8000 loss.
> ...





Hi Q,  I know how you feel when things go from bad to worse, but I hope you held on a bit longer with CDR ............ Looks to have found a bottom now (Contararians should like the chart ), and the thing that gets me interested the most is, everyone of the top 5 shareholders has increased their holdings over the last 2 months AMP and Perpetual own 25% of CDR between them ............. Perpetual topped up again on 20-07-07 ................ Certainly looking more promising .......... I topped up today based on Perpetual doing the same ......... Cheers.


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## Lachlan6 (18 August 2007)

Not looking pretty. Still what brought this to my attention is the BUY reco. from Westpac. Valuation at $1.65. So probably very cheap at these levels. I love bottom fishing, but it will need to show _some_ form of reversal before I contemplate entering. Key resistance dating back from the float at around $0.95.


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## pch (19 August 2007)

These guys popped up for me purely because they were trading below asset value. But in checking their balance sheet they have a large intangible component. Any idea what this is?

Take this out and they become much less interesting..


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## SevenFX (20 August 2007)

Ouch... this has definetly fallin a fair bit, and may have a bit to go chart wise.

First Support down at 76c, then 64c and third weak support maybe at 56.5c

But hope I'm wrong if your holding down, and hope the dow bounces removing global market preasure adding the the trend change.

Cheers
SevenFX


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## ROE (31 August 2007)

pch said:


> These guys popped up for me purely because they were trading below asset value. But in checking their balance sheet they have a large intangible component. Any idea what this is?
> 
> Take this out and they become much less interesting..




This business isn't great ... crab ROE/ROC and profit margin .. I will pick up if it trades below 70 cents  and Volante IT division going to cause a lot of head aches for them not this year but maybe next several years... I know Volante very well in IT industry. so I stay the hell out until trades real cheap or it show sign it can mange Volante reputation and pickup good customers and work force.


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## ROE (31 August 2007)

pch said:


> These guys popped up for me purely because they were trading below asset value. But in checking their balance sheet they have a large intangible component. Any idea what this is?
> 
> Take this out and they become much less interesting..




I'm sticking to my earlier post and pickup CDR now as it trades under 70 cents
it's definitely now below book value at 0.69 cents
that put the company market cap at 157-158 Million

I reckon net asset for this guy minus intangible is around 180-200mil
someone may make a bid for this guy soon at this price 
TLS, Optus, AAPT?


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## reece55 (1 September 2007)

ROE said:


> I'm sticking to my earlier post and pickup CDR now as it trades under 70 cents
> it's definitely now below book value at 0.69 cents
> that put the company market cap at 157-158 Million
> 
> ...




ROE
My question here would be that do you think that the book value for CDR is indicative of what the market is willing to pay for it? I.e. would there be a willing buyer at book value - because the answer is not necessarily yes.

All I can say is that CDR is in deep deep do do...... PPT are unloading at these low levels, so clearly it looks like there isn't much support for them ATM.

Cheers
Reece


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## ROE (2 September 2007)

reece55 said:


> ROE
> My question here would be that do you think that the book value for CDR is indicative of what the market is willing to pay for it? I.e. would there be a willing buyer at book value - because the answer is not necessarily yes.
> 
> All I can say is that CDR is in deep deep do do...... PPT are unloading at these low levels, so clearly it looks like there isn't much support for them ATM.
> ...




I dont really care who is buying and selling I just buy what I think is right.
and I assume you buy what you think is right for you..

All the big institution buy and trades share every day sometimes they got it right some times they got it wrong.

I buy RHG recently when all the institution cant wait to get rid of it and sold out when everyone is coming back in  namely PPT if you want to know.


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## reece55 (3 September 2007)

ROE said:


> I dont really care who is buying and selling I just buy what I think is right.
> and I assume you buy what you think is right for you..
> 
> All the big institution buy and trades share every day sometimes they got it right some times they got it wrong.
> ...




True ROE, the instos don't always get it right......

But a stock that halves in less than 1.5 months is a short candidate, not a long candidate....

The capitulation has been spectacular - now 68 cents, 27 June it was 1.52............ ouch.........

Can anyone shed any light on what's going on here, because I appreciate that the integration of Volante hasn't gone as well as anticipated. But this kind of a sell off leads me to think they are going bankrupt.......

Cheers


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## Rainmaker2000 (9 September 2007)

CDR price may suggest its going bankrupt but this is a contrarians dream......you've just got to love a sound business which get itself into all the wrong media and the bad books of the 'professionals'.....even the conservative estimates have CDR at 65 mil EBITA next year and a break evenish NPAT......obviously they screwed up but much cash is still flowing on the ground and the 'write offs' are just funny money (intagibles)..........for the record, punters paid $2 for CDR stock issued to pay for Volante.....that's where the losers are...just another waste of money acquisition.....as for peole entering at .63 cents, the question is whether your an investor and trader cause this business is worth a lot more than that but as long as they keep printing the newspaper headlines this baby aint getting beamed up quickly


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## SevenFX (9 September 2007)

SevenFX said:


> First Support down at 76c, then 64c and *third weak support maybe at 56.5c*




So doesn't look like the previous support held up, with a last support being _*56.5c*_, but don't know where to from there as there is no historical support beyond 6years 9months.????

SevenFX


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## reece55 (9 September 2007)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> CDR price may suggest its going bankrupt but this is a contrarians dream......you've just got to love a sound business which get itself into all the wrong media and the bad books of the 'professionals'.....even the conservative estimates have CDR at 65 mil EBITA next year and a break evenish NPAT......obviously they screwed up but much cash is still flowing on the ground and the 'write offs' are just funny money (intagibles)..........for the record, punters paid $2 for CDR stock issued to pay for Volante.....that's where the losers are...just another waste of money acquisition.....as for peole entering at .63 cents, the question is whether your an investor and trader cause this business is worth a lot more than that but as long as they keep printing the newspaper headlines this baby aint getting beamed up quickly




Rainmaker
Just remember what EBITDA is - it excludes interest, depreciation and amortisation - I don't see them breaking even in FY08 given that they didn't even give us an indication of the bottom line. The reality with these guys is they weren't even operating cash flow positive for FY 07 and the gearing has gone up due to taking on an extra $40 Mil in debt this year to fund acquisitions of PP&E. It is fairly obvious they have a significant liquidity issue here, the more debt you take on, the more interest you obviously have to pay, the further in the hole you are this year than last year. To me, the issue here is whether the inventory on balance sheet could be sold at book value - because if it isn't worth much, then they were probably close to insolvency this year!!!

Still, I do concede that the business could turn around. But god that Volante acquisition proved to be a whole lot more than they expected to take on.

Cheers


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## TheAbyss (9 September 2007)

Bottom line for Commander is that they increased debt to buy Volante however their sales are diminishing every month. The Volante purchase was to give CDR the ability to implement high end voice & data solutions.

It is common knowledge within the industry that CDR had a problem in implementing the solutions they were selling to enterprise and government (E&G) clients. CDR's solution was to purchase Volante who are leaders in implemention of these solutions. Great solution and they now have the ability to implement what they *were* selling.

Unfortunately for CDR they lost a lot of key customers & staff who were tired of waiting for CDR to lift their game. In addition to this the 2nd issue CDR have is that they decided to go the franchise path. Problem with that is the franchises do not have the same level of skill sets so they are now selling into the SMB space which doesnt generate the same cash flows or pay the bills. The communications industry has as many problems getting skilled staff as a lot of others so the people who were worth having went fast and the franchises are getting lower skilled people which is reflected in the market they are targeting to fit their skill sets.

In short, their revenues are decreasing and paying more in costs at a corporate level so they are being revalued accordingly. They might make some money slicing up the phone book for a while but that is short term.

They are also now off the S&P list so they will retreat further IMO. My view is they need to get back into the E&G space and find a new source of clients which they lost when they cut their ties with Telstra (caused by selling carriage against Telstra when CDR bought RSL.com). Once upon a time Telstra handed Commander every E&G prospect they had which CDR no longer receive. Telstra are not going to hand opportunities to their competitors. Telstra now pass these off to a new business (TBS) so CDR are no better than any other dealer channel. I would descibe CDR as an NTG with morals as they do the same thing, sell bundled hardware with Voice and data carriage. Differences being CDR are good in the VoIP area which is where they need to concentrate. When they announce they are taking Cisco on in the market place then they will start to show some value to the shareholders again.

Just my opinion.


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## adamwu (10 September 2007)

CDR dropped to 54c today. Have no idea what is going on. can't imagine this the the stock price of a $1b income company.


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## greenfs (10 September 2007)

I think that if you check the recent ASX announcements you will find it is no longer AUD1B as it has been removed from the ASX200 index based upon the continuing decline of the market capitalisation.

You know the news is bad when the large institutional investors are sending in notices advising that they are ceasing to be substantial holders.

This is becoming a fire sale not unlike Repco 18 mos ago and who knows when & at what level the decline will stop.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (11 September 2007)

greenfs said:


> I think that if you check the recent ASX announcements you will find it is no longer AUD1B as it has been removed from the ASX200 index based upon the continuing decline of the market capitalisation.
> 
> You know the news is bad when the large institutional investors are sending in notices advising that they are ceasing to be substantial holders.
> 
> This is becoming a fire sale not unlike Repco 18 mos ago and who knows when & at what level the decline will stop.




A Nightmare indeed, still holding, only because I have been away from the computer for the last 3 weeks


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## MannyB (11 September 2007)

Hi there,

this is my first post on this forum, so a BIG HELLO to everyone...

In terms of CDR, I had bought some a few months back at just over $1 & now see them hit 50c today (while institutions are dumping them)...   Is now a good time to buy at such a low price (price possibly artificially low due to the heavy selling of institutions?)?

I forgot to mention, based on Commsec's CDR financials, it shows a book value of $1.14 (which is over double what it is trading today)

Cheers,

MannyB.


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## uptrend (11 September 2007)

> In terms of CDR, I had bought some a few months back at just over $1 & now see them hit 50c today (while institutions are dumping them)... Is now a good time to buy at such a low price (price possibly artificially low due to the heavy selling of institutions?)?
> 
> I forgot to mention, based on Commsec's CDR financials, it shows a book value of $1.14 (which is over double what it is trading today)




From the substantial holder notice of AMP yesterday, as of this morning they only have about 13 million shares left to sell, so far in today's trading, the volume has now exceeded that, so IMO AMP has almost offloaded they shares by now, the downside is now limited IMO


----------



## adamwu (11 September 2007)

uptrend said:


> From the substantial holder notice of AMP yesterday, as of this morning they only have about 13 million shares left to sell, so far in today's trading, the volume has now exceeded that, so IMO AMP has almost offloaded they shares by now, the downside is now limited IMO




Hope so. But interesting thing is why AMP get off this boat? is there any source said AMP spend money on something else? and who else bought this huge shares?


----------



## MannyB (11 September 2007)

May have something to do with CDR no longer being in the S&P 200?  (which could be part of the criteria of a particular fund that may have held CDR?)

I'm tempted to buy some at this low price though, the company can't be doing so badly (they do have many large gov't contracts & the price drop may just be an over-reaction?)

Cheers,

MannyB.


----------



## ROE (11 September 2007)

I'm getting some more .. I bought 20,000 at 69 cents I'm getting another 10,000 at 48-49 cents 

I look fear selling into their face and laugh   bring it on


----------



## SevenFX (11 September 2007)

ROE said:


> I'm getting some more .. I bought 20,000 at 69 cents I'm getting another 10,000 at 48-49 cents
> 
> I look fear selling into their face and laugh   bring it on




Averaging DOWN (if you beleive in it) only works when thier is light at the end of the tunnel....????

ATM cdr is an unknown, and the  charts don't suggest otherwise. IMO

SevenFX


----------



## ROE (11 September 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Averaging DOWN (if you beleive in it) only works when thier is light at the end of the tunnel....????
> 
> ATM cdr is an unknown, and the  charts don't suggest otherwise. IMO
> 
> SevenFX




I done my research and I stick to my gun thick and thin and if the opportunity present at level well below the price I'm willing to pay then I'm loading it up.
I could be wrong though but not many people make money if they don't stick to their conviction .

we will get back to this thread 1-2 years from now whether I made a bad move or a well informed move


----------



## SevenFX (11 September 2007)

ROE said:


> we will get back to this thread 1-2 years from now whether I made a bad move or a well informed move




I agree research is paramount, and buying the dips n selling the peaks is also a good thing, but this is no dip and more like an avalanche IMO.

But everyone to their own, which is why the market works.

If the company exists in 1-2 years (which is a long time), you may be in profit and you will be rolling in it... or licking ones wounds, hence could be like the other onetel, hih, bdg investors...???

BUT if you did that with your other holds, then your risk exposure is far greater, esp with more downward pressure from the US looming ecomony.

Also if I had CDR and were offloading, it would be comforting to know there are people with an opposite view and cashed up : 

Wish you well though.
SevenFX


----------



## adamwu (11 September 2007)

SP touched 46.5c. Around 19m vol, it is a huge sell. Looks like it is not only AMP selling. Will this company breakup?


----------



## Awesomandy (11 September 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Averaging DOWN (if you beleive in it) only works when thier is light at the end of the tunnel....????




I would agree to this. I have Bloomberg TV in front of me everyday, and CDR keeps appearing in the "ASX200 most down" list. Besides, it is usually not too late to buy in once the new uptrend has been established. Until then, I'm sure that there are other opportunities as well.


----------



## brilliantmichael (11 September 2007)

Commander's supposed to be a billion dollar company, but I haven't seen any of their branches. I know they do B2B and G2B services, but I'd never heard of them before. A few answers would be appreciated!

-----

Who are their competitors for example? (We know they were spun off Telstra, and now Telstra IS one - any others?)

Why have they been issuing shares for the past 2 years? (From 147m to 229m shares in less than 3 years?? wat tha?)

What is that goodwill component?

Why is management all *hush hush* and clamming up now (they haven't released a statement in months, bar the prelim), whereas before they were quite happy to sell the good news? And 3 profit downgrades.... why not just be conservative and give it straight?

-----
PS: "Research" doesn't just mean just looking at the charts and getting excited! You gotta be sure. Just my caveat! 

PPS: Either/Or: Either: PPT and AMP are burning (other people's) money for some really wacked thrills, Or: PPT and AMP know something WE don't

PPPS: If this is another OneTel, then look out below...


----------



## MannyB (11 September 2007)

I must say we use CDR for our purchases here at work (we spend a few $mil on Microsoft licences, PC hardware, CISCO gear, etc.) & have always been professional & do offer similar services to many colleagues of mine in the same industry...  Speaking to some of the sales staff they feel the company is doing well (and actually have been adding shares to their portfolios, as they think the market is over reacting), but then again, we don't know what goes on behind the scenes, only the MD's &/or CEO would know the true story...  I'm still tempted to purchase some additional shares later in the day...

Cheers,

MannyB.


----------



## adamwu (11 September 2007)

brilliantmichael said:


> Commander's supposed to be a billion dollar company, but I haven't seen any of their branches. I know they do B2B and G2B services, but I'd never heard of them before. A few answers would be appreciated!
> 
> -----
> 
> ...




woo, these are very professional questions, i wanna know the answers too. I heard the restructuring is for branchs. anyone can help us?


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## MannyB (11 September 2007)

Hi Adamwu,

I suspect the number of shares issued has increased substantially due to the Volante takeover (allocating shares to the Volante share-holders, which did include the ex-Ipex share holders that were bought out by Volante a year or so earlier)...  I can't recall how the shares were allocated, but recall that Volante shareholders were allocated an X number of Commander shares for every Volante share (or vice versa)...

Cheers,

Manny.


----------



## brilliantmichael (11 September 2007)

'we use CDR for our purchases here at work'

Great to hear you "know about 'em!" Why do you guys choose them over Telstra/others?


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## ROE (11 September 2007)

adamwu said:


> woo, these are very professional questions, i wanna know the answers too. I heard the restructuring is for branchs. anyone can help us?




PPT and AMP could be under regulation to off load their shares as CDR is now no longer in ASX200 and they may have rules governing they only allows  to hold 
X amount and the rest they must liquidate 

I don't expect anything good come out of CDR for another 1-2 years .. My investment time frame is 3 years before I admit I either make a mistake or make money... as long as CDR doesnt go belly up I dont care what happen from here on ...
May buy some more if it drop down to 20 cents 

There is nothing wrong with CDR  they just made a bad acquisition with Volante and company do make stupid mistake sometimes and as long as the mistake is correctable then there is nothing wrong with CDR ...


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## MannyB (11 September 2007)

Hi BrilliantMichael,

we don't use them for telecomm services (as we use Optus to trunk calls & mobiles), however use them for hardware purchases (Ipex PCs, HP Printers, Hitachi SANs, Cisco gear), software purchases (Microsoft Agreements, Macromedia & Adobe) & various services (some development work in the Microsoft Server area, etc.)...

Their staff did seem to think the first profit warning was due to system integration (which was also released to the ASX) & orders were unable to be fulfilled/billed/etc...   We didn't notice any of this as we were Volante customers & moved over to Commander due to the take-over...

Other colleagues use them to buy many other brands of hardware such as Acer, HP, etc...  I must say they do also have many large gov't contracts in place for hardware (their Ipex branded PCs) & you may even notice them on TV during the "Border Security" show, as Customs use Ipex PCs...

My gut feeling is that the market is over-reacting...

Cheers,

MannyB.


----------



## ROE (11 September 2007)

MannyB said:


> Hi BrilliantMichael,
> 
> we don't use them for telecomm services (as we use Optus to trunk calls & mobiles), however use them for hardware purchases (Ipex PCs, HP Printers, Hitachi SANs, Cisco gear), software purchases (Microsoft Agreements, Macromedia & Adobe) & various services (some development work in the Microsoft Server area, etc.)...
> 
> ...




I can back you up with fundamental and that made CDR a bargain at 48 cents   like RHG was at a bargain @ 60-69 cents


----------



## MannyB (11 September 2007)

Hi ROE,

Looks like we think alike    I snatched up some RHG when they did drop as well...  I personally think they will do well as a longer term hold (which is how I invest, as I'm not a trader)...

Note: it doesn't hurt to go against the tide from time to time...

Cheers,

MannyB.


----------



## brilliantmichael (11 September 2007)

MannyB said:


> Hi BrilliantMichael,
> 
> we don't use them for telecomm services (as we use Optus to trunk calls & mobiles), however use them for hardware purchases (Ipex PCs, HP Printers, Hitachi SANs, Cisco gear), software purchases (Microsoft Agreements, Macromedia & Adobe) & various services (some development work in the Microsoft Server area, etc.)...
> 
> ...





OK so they're like a 'one stop shop' for business IT hardware. Thanks for the info MannyB! You can also see the majority of their revenue is from goods sales as opposed to services. Guess this is why their margins are pretty low (lower to mid single digits) like the retailers. So do they have any competitors? e.g. Telstra?


----------



## MannyB (11 September 2007)

Well in the voice front (Voice Over IP - VoIP), they do have some competitors in the integration front (from companies such as Dimension Data, Netstar, etc.), but due to their high level of expertise there along with PABX experience, they can hold their own in this area...   In the PC & other hardware sales front (selling to Corporate, Gov't & Education), although they are getting good sales, their margins are shrinking due to the high competition from smaller players & even white-box (clone) PC manufacturers...  Clone manufacturers are struggling due to expensive labour costs when building PCs in Australia, so many are shutting shop, which helps companies such as Commander who deal with MANY/most vendors such as HP, Lenovo, Acer, Ipex (their own white box), Toshiba, IBM (servers), Lexmark, etc...  They will always have mid-size competitors such as Leading Solutions, Fujitsu, etc., however due to their size, can often get better pricing from large manufacturers & pass on the savings to customers (such as us)...  Their size helps though, as they can be used as a one stop shop for all IT needs (from voice, PCs, Servers, SANs, Backups, Switches/Routers, managed services, etc.)

Cheers,

MannyB.


----------



## sigmadelta (11 September 2007)

Hi all.

Today's was the biggest one day volume that Commander has had. It smells like a capitulation to me. It is interesting to note that the clearout of the funds' holdings have found support among buyers, otherwise it would be down by a lot more than 14% today.

I'm viewing this as a trading opportunity, in at 47c, which values the company at around A$100m. Someone has to be interested in the business at this price.


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## sigmadelta (11 September 2007)

Let me reiterate, as there has been a significant number of sellers (real sellers, not short), there has been a buyer to match the trade. As some of the buys are automated I think there is a good chance we have a single large buyer who must very soon have to reveal their holdings according to the ASX rules.


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## ROE (11 September 2007)

MannyB said:


> Hi ROE,
> 
> Looks like we think alike    I snatched up some RHG when they did drop as well...  I personally think they will do well as a longer term hold (which is how I invest, as I'm not a trader)...
> 
> ...




I off load all RHG at 1.195 because it was above the value I was comfortable with and sub prime debt is not yet out of the wood..will buy it again if it drop to 70 cents look like it may get there


----------



## greenfs (11 September 2007)

Anyone who reads charts (see above) will know that this is now a basket case to be avoided at all costs for the time being.

Personally, I am very greatful that I did not follow Commsec's buy recommendation at $1.70+.


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## sigmadelta (11 September 2007)

Hello greenfs,

You made the statement "the news is bad when the large institutional investors are sending in notices advising that they are ceasing to be substantial holders.".

These guys _have_ to reduce their holdings because the price has fallen below the threshold cap. You can say it has fallen because of some bad news. A plausible view is the institutional selling is a knock on effect which gives the price a bigger hit than it would have done otherwise. The chart looks terrible but  we bounced on very high volume today.


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## brilliantmichael (11 September 2007)

How do we know when it's the bottom? Apparently PPT still has a substantial stake left (around 8%)??

You're right about the buyers scooping it up from below. It seems there's always a huge depth ready to catch the sales. I doubt they'd be retail investors.


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## greenfs (11 September 2007)

Fair enough. Let me know when we are at bottom and/or when we have an industry competitor with 5% holding. In the meantime, I will keep watching with an interest from the sidelines.


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## sigmadelta (11 September 2007)

The intraday chart is worth looking at. It trickled down to 44c, then bounced on volume at 3.35pm. Started heading south again with 9 minutes to go, then bounced again just before the close. I don't for a minute believe the sellers have finished yet, but there looks to be some strong support above 45c.


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## reece55 (11 September 2007)

sigmadelta said:


> Hello greenfs,
> 
> You made the statement "the news is bad when the large institutional investors are sending in notices advising that they are ceasing to be substantial holders.".
> 
> These guys _have_ to reduce their holdings because the price has fallen below the threshold cap. You can say it has fallen because of some bad news. A plausible view is the institutional selling is a knock on effect which gives the price a bigger hit than it would have done otherwise. The chart looks terrible but  we bounced on very high volume today.




Sigma
Think as though you are the fund manager - would you fire sell your stake in a Company knowing full well you are going to depress the share price drastically unless you had a good reason? My opinion is a big no! I don't know what's wrong with the exception of what has already been disclosed, but clearly there is more bad news to come. I don't really see a bounce here, we have a dark red candle with a slight tail - it just indicates distribution to me. 

Picking bottoms is a poor mans game - clearly I think the best strategy in CDR is to stay well away unless considering a short position.

Cheers


----------



## sigmadelta (11 September 2007)

Hi reece,

I were a fund manager, I would be trying to look after my job. Buying a ASX200 share that posts regular dividends would usually be a safe move. When there are no dividends and the share leaves the index means I look for another one, presumably safer. As staying in might be a career threatening move. 

Not to say that this company doesn't have big problems to sort out, but I don't think it necessarily follows from fund managers' reluctance that the problems need be terminal.


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## adamwu (12 September 2007)

From this morning's ann, AMP finished getting off at 10/09, and PPT finished getting off at 11/09. But yesterday's vol is 34.5m, so who else is selling?


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## ROE (12 September 2007)

adamwu said:


> From this morning's ann, AMP finished getting off at 10/09, and PPT finished getting off at 11/09. But yesterday's vol is 34.5m, so who else is selling?




All come down to are you game enough to go against the herd 
when people jump ship and all hell broke lose and everyone is shouting
get out get out .. what would you do ? stand with your own conviction or follow the herd


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## sigmadelta (12 September 2007)

Strength today. The market has smelt the blood of these two funds and is taking what it can from these forced sales.


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## MannyB (12 September 2007)

Hi ROE,

In terms of RAMS, I suspect with the share price weakness, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the BIG4 banks is slowly accumulating shares, as one of the ladies I know that owns a Rams Franchise outlet, she had indicated that NAB had offered around $750 for RAMS before it floated, however was knocked back by the RAMS board/owners at the time...  So I wouldn't be surprised if someone like NAB picks them up for a bargain (far less than what they had offered some time ago)...

Cheers,

Manny.


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## ROE (14 September 2007)

Lateline business has CDR on its program last night if anyone hold this
and want some view on it 
you can get it via vodcast at www.abc.net.au/latelinebusiness


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## sigmadelta (17 September 2007)

The main sellers are out, technicals suggest we are set up for a bounce, no impending news expected, and Huntley's have just put out a speculative buy: target $1.25.


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## Miner (17 September 2007)

Yes I saw it and see an opportunity with CDR.
However Huntley has lost its gloss to some extent. It recommended SIP one day to buy and next day on releasing report, reverted back to hold. So there is no intelligent analysis like many good companies. I understand it is difficult with less staff and so many things are happening.
I would personally wait CDR to get some resistance from free fall before committing on it.
Disclaimer: This is my own opinion, I am not an investment expert and DO not hold CDR.


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## ROE (20 September 2007)

USB just got on board with 5.10% things are looking up .. 
is someone lurking to build a large enough stake to take this baby under their arm?


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## sigmadelta (20 September 2007)

It's UBS nominees, I think not UBS themselves. 
On behalf of an anonymous party, their customer. 

They were happy to let the previous larger shareholders push the market down, while accumulating on weakness.


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## MannyB (21 September 2007)

Well its hit 60cents today...  We may hopefully see an improvement there...  Looks however like someone is buying up big during this weakness...  Wouldn't be surprised if we see a take-over bid coming...


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## ROE (21 September 2007)

it's on the move baby  I'm glad I buy when everyone is selling 
a few percentage points a day for the next 7 days will be nice


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## SevenFX (21 September 2007)

ROE said:


> it's on the move baby  I'm glad I buy when everyone is selling
> a few percentage points a day for the next 7 days will be nice




Well bought ROE. Around 47c I beleive

Why did you pick the bounce there, apart from the fact that it fell a long way, and SEEMED like good value.

Be interested to see it break the 70c-72c mark

Cheers
SevenFX


----------



## juw177 (21 September 2007)

The huge stopping volume spike prior to this current rally is a strong indication of a trend reversal. Let's see how this plays out.


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## MannyB (21 September 2007)

I bought some more at .515, so good to see them moving (make up some of the losses made on CDR from the first lot purchased at over $1.00 each)...  Glad I did (missed the bottom of .44, but still happy)

Cheers,

Manny.


----------



## ISMON (21 September 2007)

I bought some of these at .48 & again at .54, im a beginner in the sharemarket, this looks like its my first good desicion. 

Also I just broke my post cherry. whoo!


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## MannyB (21 September 2007)

Well done Ismon, its a speculative stock, but it hopefully will deliver the goods 

Cheers,

Manny.


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## ROE (23 September 2007)

SevenFX said:


> Well bought ROE. Around 47c I beleive
> 
> Why did you pick the bounce there, apart from the fact that it fell a long way, and SEEMED like good value.
> 
> ...




Well I had my target range on how much CDR was worth so I buy it initially at 69 cents but not above that and when it hit rock bottom I buy it again at 48 cents.
Has it fall further to like 20-30 cents I would buy it some more but it didn't so 

Average down on the price I'm willing to pay is something I play often and It could one day go into a bust but never yet in my history 

When I'm sure of something I'm my own man and very few people can influence my decision. Mr Market and Fund Managers can exit all they like and jump ship.
I'm staying focussed and aim for the perfect pitch.


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## juw177 (26 September 2007)

Sellers seem to have been exhausted in the last few days of hovering around under 60c because today's 9% rise was without much resistance.


Edit: Up 10% now


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## ROE (27 September 2007)

Seven offer to buy unwired for $127 Mil
CDR own 80% of iBurst which offer similar service and in my opinion a better wireless internet provider ... the whole CDR is worth less than 144Mil at today trading price ... that look cheap


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## 3 veiws of a secret (1 October 2007)

I wish I was a fly in the accounts room @ CDR .......I reckon they're milking the overtime rate.......
Needless to say the mess is a mess judging from todays situation !


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## greenfs (2 October 2007)

The failure to lodge accounts on time proves to me that this is a basket case and any current holders should now take the first opportunity to recoup what capital they can when the share recommences trading.

It seems to me that management should have ensured at whatever cost that the accounts were posted on time to try and retain a degree of integrity and respect for the share. 

It seems to me that unless key management undergoes substantial change, there is now next to no hope for the immediate future direction of this company. 

To state the bleeding obvious, the most likely way of implementing desired management change must surely now come via a takeover.


----------



## quarky (2 October 2007)

looks like trading has been suspended for CDR today.

maybe there's takeover activity,..hmm...Optus buying Commander?


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## juw177 (2 October 2007)

quarky said:


> looks like trading has been suspended for CDR today.
> 
> maybe there's takeover activity,..hmm...Optus buying Commander?




It states exactly why the suspension took place if you read the ASX announcements. Though a takeover would be nice for us holders.


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## ROE (2 October 2007)

Yeah take over at 70 cents a share please and sack the current management
they are lazy and not doing anything to improve the share price, especially with the latest lodgment bungle.

Three strikes and you are out that how I would like CDR to play


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## juw177 (3 October 2007)

My oh my, what is going on with these guys. Are they purposely trying to make us holders panic some more?


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## edvisor (3 October 2007)

I feel its all done on purpose. Adrian Coote is too clever to let this sort of oversight lapse - Spindoctor 101, its just not good for PR.

Maybe they want to temporarily stop all this panic/frustrated sell down activity which makes for worst PR.

Looks like UBS did a nice short term trade for their clients picking up a substantial holding and selling down about 5c later. 

Dark days for Commander. They have lots to fix up, but its not insurmountable. They are still winning sizable contracts despite copping heaps in the financial press.

I do like their 360 strategy, but it shouldn't happen at all cost. They will learn from their Volante mistake. They have to.

It would be a good gesture for Adrian Coote or the Chairman to make some sort of public announcment to ease shareholder concerns. It's times like this the CEO needs to make a showing and justify the level of respect others in the telco/technology industry have for him.  Otherwise he should step down and let someone else take the reign. Despite its debt levels, Commander is still a good company with good assets.


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## ROE (4 October 2007)

It has been a couple of days since the trading halt put on CDR
when are they going to lodge their account .

I want to see my stock rise or fall, cant stand watching it sit idle


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## MannyB (4 October 2007)

I was talking to one of the Commander Technicians yesterday, as we deal with them on a regular basis & said he has been speaking to his management & sais that they are doing very well (in the business) & even he said that he has been buying up as many shares as he can afford (which is in line with what sales staff were telling me a few weeks back)...  I wouldn't be too worried about the trading halt, however doesn't give you much faith in senior management (although you never know, they may be up to something in the background, I suppose we just have to wait & see)...  

Cheers,

Manny.


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## ROE (4 October 2007)

Cool ... that's a good piece of information hearing from the work force
and the customers. 

I think CDR has a good set of assets, management need to manage it a little better and start paying down debt instead of going on acquiring other company when they don't have cash reserve to pay for it and fund it by debt. 

I hope Volante teaches them a lesson and start redeem their sins


----------



## SevenFX (4 October 2007)

ROE said:


> I want to see my stock rise or fall, cant stand watching it sit idle




You should be in PROFIT given you bought at 48c odd ROE, and think the trading holt outcome will be good news...but just a guess.

SevenFX


----------



## ROE (4 October 2007)

SevenFX said:


> You should be in PROFIT given you bought at 48c odd ROE, and think the trading holt outcome will be good news...but just a guess.
> 
> SevenFX




I actually Average down  bought in at 69 then again at 48  I was set to go again at 35 or something but it never go down that far 

break even at this stage


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## pch (4 October 2007)

Well I also spoke to a commander employee (and former share trader) who said to me he isn't buying just yet.. believes a lot of things are improving internally but there were some majorly dumb things going on and the synergies from Volante are only now just starting to happen.

The thing I am still concerned about is the massive amount of intangible assets they have listed at over $300 million, and goodwill is not listed separately. I worry about them perhaps doing an iinet and a 'big bath' type accounting writedown.. for that reason I wait a bit longer.

Commander ain't coke a cola.. what can they possibly have thats worth over $300mil? Any ideas?


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## ROE (5 October 2007)

Don't know it maybe just their name and market position as their intangible asset..they have a nice small to medium market that other players doesnt. 

Intangible I really don't take those in account as when it come push to shove it worth nothing. I work on what they can salvage if CDR was to go belly up..someone may pay them maybe 40 cents a share and take the business.
make a calculated risk to buy at XX price and worse case scenario XX-40 will be my lost but upside could be unlimited.


----------



## pch (5 October 2007)

yeah but if you take the intangible asset out, then the assets are worth LESS than 40c a share and the debt to equity ratio then looks really bad..

I assume you have seen this?

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22534892-15306,00.html


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## ROE (5 October 2007)

Interesting  .. but there is no formal announcement yet ...maybe they announce it just before trading resume ...

maybe the worse is yet to come for this baby, may have to cop on the chin and take a lost at some stage


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## edvisor (5 October 2007)

Its debt to equity does look bad, but it has been on a acquisitive trail of late, much like ABS.

It would be a waste to fire sale the assets independently, now that they are starting to build some synergies between their separate business units. To extract optimum value, an equity partner scenario would be ideal.

What a mess. It goes to show that management is the most important aspect of any company. Bad management will find a way to squander good assets.


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## greenfs (5 October 2007)

It is  more than a bit disconcerting to me that CDR's website is not working. I think that we are in for real bad news on this one next week. For all those holders (not me), I genuinely hope that I am wrong.


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## ROE (5 October 2007)

this site? http://www.commander.com/
it's a pretty badly design too  but that's ok I dont want to spend million
on some website just for the look


----------



## juw177 (9 October 2007)

Yeah, still in suspend. What are the chances that the next announcement will be a takeover? We already know the company is in trouble, so no need for the "suspense" if that was all there was to it... wishful thinking.


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## MannyB (9 October 2007)

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a take-over announcement is made, as I cannot see them taking this long to produce full financial year reports...  Hopefully that is the reason for the delay in getting out of the trading halt...


----------



## ROE (9 October 2007)

better be a reasonable offer rather than the cheap and nasty offer Westpac made to RAMS 

I'm hoping for 70 cents to a dollar


----------



## roland (9 October 2007)

CDR can't be too bad off, they just paid an outstanding invoice of multiple 10's of thousands they have owed our company ..... and on time


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## hitter (10 October 2007)

Thursday, 27 September 2007
By Jason Baker of IBISWorld

Australia’s $3.35 billion telco reselling market has had moderate growth for the past five years and is set to grow 2.6% a year on average over the next five years to 2012-13, thanks to growth in mobile virtual network operators.
Key statistics 2006

*Key statistics 2006* 

Industry revenue	                        $3.35b
Revenue growth (2005 to 2006)	0.70%
Number of enterprises	             128
Employment	                          6,478

*Main players’ market share 2006* 

Commander Communications	            22–23%
SingTel Optus	                         17.20%
TCNZ Australia Investments (AAPT)   12–13%
SP Telemedia (Soul)	            10–11%

*Optus seen as bidder*
http://www.smh.com.au/news/xchange/...fter-alcan-loss/2007/10/09/1191695909145.html


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## ROE (18 October 2007)

Annual report just release, resume trading soon ? and no bidder or more information going to start to come out in the next few days


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## MannyB (18 October 2007)

I was actually speaking to one of their sales rep yesterday & had indicated that the financial results were completed...  She did indicate that its business as usual & no take-over happening, however they are still looking at offloading iBurst (or is it Unwired, anyway mix the two up) as it has been unprofitable, but no buyers (have had it on the market for the last year)...  She did say she would expect stocks to open a little lower, however heading up north again in the longer term...


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## bigdog (18 October 2007)

Two ASX ANN today

CDR last traded on 28-Sep-2007 with closing price 0.5950

18/10/2007	Reinstatement to Official Quotation
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00771206
-- suspension from trading will be lifted before the commencement of trading tomorrow, Friday 19.

18/10/2007	 	Annual Report to shareholders	
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00771201

CDR last traded on 28-Sep-2007 with closing price 0.5950


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## Rainmaker2000 (18 October 2007)

Has anyone digested the annual report yet.....what a disgrace.....I can't believe they used shareholder funds to do a big spin job in the opening pages about the brilliant year that was for Commander........I particularly liked the touch on the pages attached to the report where they talk about renegotiated banking facilities, how they are desperately putting the thing up for sale with a 'data room' and then next para.........how they are well porsitioned to 'improve profit growth'.........I got caught out on this puppy, but thankfully I knew enough not to insert serious capital...........On the plus side, the banks do appear to have given them some flexibility to 'recapitalise' but the best move is probably sale at this stage........I'm still getting my head around the spin in the report which hails the Volante acquisition as a worldbeater


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## bigdog (18 October 2007)

CDR last traded on 28-Sep-2007 with closing price 0.5950
-- what will the SP open at tomorrow?

Out of control!!!!

18/10/2007 Annual Report to shareholders
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00771201

Extract from annual accounts of problems

Chairman's report page 5
In my fifth year as Chairman of Commander, the company faced a number of new operational challenges that made it a difficult year for shareholders and staff.

MD's report Page 7
However, our FY07 results do reflect unforeseen difficulties related to the major structural changes necessary to position the business for the future.

Problems with our transaction processing system meant a significant number of ICT hardware orders could not be processed, shipped or invoiced before the end of FY07. Further, a significant amount of orders were not pursued in order to avoid disappointing customers. This was a one-off problem and we have identified and are rectifying the system issues and have put in place appropriate back-up procedures. Actions are being taken to accommodate similar surges in business in FY08.

A slower than expected rollout of Commander Centre franchises also impacted our results. Our franchise strategy is critical to the growth of our business and we remain deeply committed to this initiative. Based on the performance of existing franchises, Commander expects to realise increased revenue and profits from this initiative in the coming financial year and beyond.

The FY07 financial results were disappointing in a number of areas, but we are now in a stronger position to improve our performance in the future. Our system issues have been resolved, our franchise network is largely up and running and we have exciting new solutions to offer our wide-ranging customer base.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (18 October 2007)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> Has anyone digested the annual report yet.....what a disgrace.....I can't believe they used shareholder funds to do a big spin job in the opening pages about the brilliant year that was for Commander........I particularly liked the touch on the pages attached to the report where they talk about renegotiated banking facilities, how they are desperately putting the thing up for sale with a 'data room' and then next para.........how they are well porsitioned to 'improve profit growth'.........I got caught out on this puppy, but thankfully I knew enough not to insert serious capital...........On the plus side, the banks do appear to have given them some flexibility to 'recapitalise' but the best move is probably sale at this stage........I'm still getting my head around the spin in the report which hails the Volante acquisition as a worldbeater




I just read parts of the report ,and to be truthful ,on a day like we have today ie ASX soaring,the investor confidence seems parrelled to this fact ,and CDR is pushing the typing ribbon into overdrive jargon.Iits not a good yarn that they are spinning. For talk of a possible takeover it's like  a RHG saga all over again .Somebody might step in and take the risk on CDR ,but it will go for fraction ,or a fractel ?
I pulled up to a CDR car at the traffic lights a few days and asked the driver how CDR are going .......His reply was "MATE !!! no problem they're paying my mortgage off ! "........10 out 10 perhaps he should work in the accounts dept!
Can't wait to ditch ......


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## juw177 (19 October 2007)

Oh man. Looks like a gap down to 50c will happen on the open. But you can say that all the troubles with the company is factored into the shareprice already and if someone wants to takeover the company, they will come in to buy up. This will be indicated in the price action today.


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## bigdog (19 October 2007)

CDR Company Trading Status: Pre-Open   	Indicative Price: 0.46  	Surplus Volume: 19500  	Market Status: Pre-Open at 9:10 AM

Caused by one seller @ 	0.380  	100,000


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## SevenFX (19 October 2007)

300k & 150k appears @ 60c & 63c resp. bringing the iopen price to 57.5c, but will it fill or dissapear.

Open doesn't look so bad now compared to 22% down few minutes ago...


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## bigdog (19 October 2007)

SevenFX said:


> 300k & 150k appears @ 60c & 63c resp. bringing the iopen price to 57.5c, but will it fill or dissapear.
> 
> Open doesn't look so bad now compared to 22% down few minutes ago...




CDR   	0.44  	  -0.155   	  -26.05%    	1,891,769  share 	$824,766  	@19-Oct 10:02:31 AM

CDR   	0.44  	  -0.155   	  -26.05%    	1,891,769  share 	$824,766  	@19-Oct 10:02:31 AM


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## ROE (19 October 2007)

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22612619-15306,00.html

Damn I hate this 100 Minimum Char message stuff


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## MannyB (19 October 2007)

Hi ROE,

Do you think a bidding war will start pushing the price up? Or do you think it will become another RAMS?

Cheers,

Manny.


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## reece55 (19 October 2007)

MannyB said:


> Hi ROE,
> 
> Do you think a bidding war will start pushing the price up? Or do you think it will become another RAMS?
> 
> ...




Manny...

Isn't it already a RAMS?????

This will be a fire sale - any purchaser has the ultimate upper hand in that without a purchaser, they are surely insolvent....... I stated this back when i saw the prelims......... Stay away at all costs is my opinion....... But hey, I could be wrong....

Cheers
Reece


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## qr2007 (19 October 2007)

There was an article on Australian IT paper today saying that there are number of potential buyers for CDR including Optus?

Do you think the SP will go up if there is an offer? how much does it worth?

Cheers
QR2007


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## Rainmaker2000 (19 October 2007)

It would seem pretty rare that the player with the leading market share goes and shoots itself in the foot like this.......maybe its wishful thinking but this is a lot different to RAMS.......CDR may not be worth much right now (I read that its auditors hesitated signing off on the annual report....the part about 'going concern..hehehe) but it has a strong market share so its of massive value to AAPT and Optus........even Mac Bank is looking at it and you can see why...exercise a tiny bit of good management, cost control and feed it bit by bit to the industry players who sound like they are having a hard time getting traction in the market (probably cause CDR was cutting margins too low).......maybe its wishful thinking but it does not seem like another RAMS except for the sheer incompetence and the threat of involvency


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## pch (19 October 2007)

Well, at least i now know the makeup of the giant intangible asset. 

Not good reading IMO. Most of it is goodwill from aquisitions and I seriously think that in the current circumstances, they face some big writedowns here in the next year or two. Do you really think their aquisitions are still worth the extra 200 million they spent on them, over and above the value of those aquisitions' assets?

The other negative thing is they capitalise software development costs. For those that don't realise what this is.. it appears they have spent a heap of money on programmers but they are accounting for that expenditure over a time frame - (something like 5 years - my guess). They do this on the presumption that whatever they are developing will last them for that period (eg 5 years). 

So the un-recognised expenture from this is listed as an asset on the books.

I don't like this, only because I used to work for a company who did this and they are no longer in existance due to cashflow issues.

Software in particular, how can you know how long it will return value for? To me this is a technique in improving the income statement. Software requires continual investment and the time-frame that you realise value from it, is very rarely any more than a year or two at best. 

If it was longer, then the next version of MSOffice will be Office 2012


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## 3 veiws of a secret (20 October 2007)

I know this share is post mortem,and regi-mortis has set in,but as a lesson to be learn't I wonder if Volante was the last straw ,or whether CDR was imploding already.........Makes me think if so VGL was more hope ,then a sound plan


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## ROE (21 October 2007)

MannyB said:


> Hi ROE,
> 
> Do you think a bidding war will start pushing the price up? Or do you think it will become another RAMS?
> 
> ...




I have no idea  , everyone is speculating this and that but until such time no one really know.

Everyone either think it worth something or everyone think it's going bankrupt.

This to me look like iinet going back not too long ago when they take over ozemail .. remember everyone is bailing out and it trading 65 cents a year ago and think this stock wont last....now it's nearly 3 times the price tag.. go figure....for me fear create opportunity 

I got CDR stocks and I'm holding and as long as they not going bankrupt I'm happy  ... I usually give stocks 2-3 years to turn around before I think whether I should dump it or not.


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## ROE (22 October 2007)

Commander presses on despite doubts
Sunday, October 21, 2007; Posted: 02:27 PM
Oct 21, 2007 (The Australian Financial Review - ABIX via COMTEX) -- VLGPF | charts | news | PowerRating -- Embattled telecommunications and IT services group Commander Communications has secured an Australian Government contract. The Department of Finance & Administration has renewed an IT contract that Commander's subsidiary Volante Group has held since November 2004. The renewed contract is initially for two years, with a three-year option, and is worth $A5m per year. Commander executives recently indicated that the group is seeking a buyer for its assets.

Publication Date: 22 October 2007


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## hitter (23 October 2007)

$23 million contract won by Commander Communications

23-10-2007 Australilan IT

THE Victorian Department of Education has decided to introduce Microsoft's Vista operating system to 1600 schools and offices in what is likely to be the largest local deal for the software to date.

The decision accompanies the awarding of a $23 million contract to Commander Communications that covers the supply of Microsoft software licences to the Victorian Department of Education and Early Childhood Development. 

The contract covers about 164,000 devices and a number of Microsoft's most recent software releases, including Windows Vista, Office 2007 and Server 2008. 

Microsoft public sector director Nigel Cadywould confirmed that the Department of Education had committed to roll out Vista, but he could not say when the organisation would make the move. 

"We're super-excited about the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development's decision to deploy Vista as its standard operating system," he said. 

"There are no announcements yet on when or how that will happen, but the department has made the decision." 

Mr Cadywould said Vista would probably be rolled out to Victorian public schools and Department of Education agencies and business offices within the three-year term of the Commander contract. 

Most corporate and government computer users typically wait until the first service pack for a new operating system has been released before moving away from more established technology. 

It is likely that Victoria's Department of Education would adhere to that practice. 

Commander Communications managing director Adrian Coote welcomed the win, which covers software that will be used by 540,000 students and 40,000 teachers in the Victorian public school system. 

"The Victorian Department of Education and Early Childhood Development is one of Commander's most important, long-standing contracts," Mr Coote said. 

''After such a long working relationship, it's very rewarding to have our quality of service and value re-acknowledged and rewarded through a competitive tender process." 

The line-up of Microsoft products covered by the contract includes Visio, Project, Expression Web, SQL Server and Exchange Server, as well as Vista, Office 2007 and Server 2008. Commander will also manage a portal, dubbed IPEX @Schools, which school communities use for help desk services and to order software CDs. 

The portal is branded Ipex because the formerly independent PC builder won the original Department of Education software contract in 1993 and then passed it down to Commander through acquisition. 

Ipex was acquired by Volante in 2004 and Volante was acquired by Commander last year.
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22630957-15306,00.html


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## adamwu (23 October 2007)

two good news, but cdr sp still dropping. Looks like these contracts still can't support its sp. Or some bad guy wanna people believe CDR is rubbish?


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## juw177 (23 October 2007)

This has to be one of the worst stocks ever. It has halved in value every 1.5 months. And I am still holding (from just before suspend at 60c) because I am thinking it is oversold since nothing has changed between the suspension and now.


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## SevenFX (23 October 2007)

This along with BDG & RHG to name a few have continued to fall from highs, because someone else suffered pain, and was willing to let it go at a loss..

The hardest thing to do is to let go at the bottom of your hold, which now seems easier to let go at the top.....made the mistake few times myself so speaking from painful experience.

Also I've hear people coin the phrase "If you roll around with dogs, you will get fleas" or something like that... CDR, RHG, BDG sad but true generally.

You may get lucky, and win some but you have to be quick In n Out, and read things well, but generally going against the trend is not your friend.


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## juw177 (23 October 2007)

I said to myself I wasnt going to sell at support levels (30c). But I've sold out now. 50% loss within a month. Thats a new record. Now sitting back to watch the bounce.


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## SevenFX (23 October 2007)

juw177 said:


> I said to myself I wasnt going to sell at support levels (30c). But I've sold out now. 50% loss within a month. Thats a new record. Now sitting back to watch the bounce.




uhhh I hope I didn't make you do that, as was not the intention.

More so to bring to attention of these types of stocks, and how it's easy to get caught, on the belief the will bounce straight after a buy in....(not)

Anyway even if it rally's tommorow, do look at it, and influence your judgement on the next one.

Like I said, I have done it the same b4 (more than once) and refuse to fall into same trap.

SevenFX


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## juw177 (23 October 2007)

No SevenFX, I sold a bit after my post and completely at my discretion. But you have a good point. I have done this before too, holding on thinking it will bounce back then ending up with a fat loss.

But since I usually buy stocks in an uptrend, holding onto the stock will see it bounce back much more often than not. But of course CDR is not in an uptrend. I was so convinced that the trend was reversing when I bought in at 60c that I let it cloud my judgement.


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## edvisor (23 October 2007)

I sense alot of pain in this town. I too suffered pain recently on this stock choosing to get out at last week's pre-open, expecting it to open at 30c but jumped at the 44c offer.

Too many holders rushing for the small exit sign. 
Now its time to go back in cautiously. This is iinet dejavu for mine.

A company with this size market share, revenue and customer base aint going under, although it may take a while to recover.

The media will probably try and come out with an explaination along the lines of how the last remaining fund managers have sold out or there is fear of an impending share issue capital raising, but as I know, its still business as usual at CDR.

Now that the fund managers want nothing to do with this company its now up to us to set the market


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## Rainmaker2000 (23 October 2007)

Edvisor, while I'm still a reluctant holder of this stock and think there is a future for CDR, the big thing will be recapitalisation........its possible that a capital raising will render existing stakes almost meaningless when CDR does return to profitability.......most experience in these situations is that price only goes down on recap.......consider the company now has to find people to buy shares at what, 20cents......it better be a rights issue to give us poor saps a better deal but ultimately, even a rights issues itself drags the shareprice down........I'm very much hoping for a bidding war between Optus and AApt and don't believe its out of the question


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## ROE (24 October 2007)

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15010/598/

more win ...if they dont make some money on these deal and pay down some debt then I pick the wrong company  but by this time next year they pay down a little bit of debt I be very happy.


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## tsunami227 (24 October 2007)

They gained a bit today.

I do hope that the massive sell out a few days ago is just people panicking due to 2 weeks of no trade. Some people might need their cash back qucikly perhaps or some do margin lending and now pfacing margin call so yeah. 

I will hold them until June.


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## roland (24 October 2007)

CDR is one of our largest customers. We supply computer peripherals to them, and I have to say they are the perfect customer. Good orders and payment on time - every time. We inherited CDR as a customer through the absorbtion of Volante and Commander.

I run an IT company and would personally be quite inclined not to invest in any computer retailing related business - the profit margins are close to non-existance due to massive competition and zero regulation. We currently survive on less than 3% gross profit, some of our competitors are doing less. Most Apple resellers do 2% on cost.

CDR have some advantage with Government contracts, and the Australian Government, as with most Governments are not very good at controlling costs, let alone the corrupt tendering process. Additionally the telecommunication support they do are quite encompassing and would add value to their portfolio of services making them an attractive take over target.

I think, long term, you will make a few bucks - but realistically you could do a lot better in different market areas.


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## ROE (26 October 2007)

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22651462-15306,00.html

6 Bidders  Volante just resign 2 IT contracts so that make it attractive to IT company .


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## SevenFX (26 October 2007)

I think the hardest thing to do is seeing any stock go back up after loosing money on it...

But jumping back in if you've done stock F/A and SP value is below, and chart has broken long term downtrend, in more than one timeframe... maybe a consideration...

However IMO were in a choppy market, and despite what TA & FA says overhead pressures from sectors/markets overall will still influence it's direction combined with gitterey holders looking for any exit...

Interesting to see where she settles and if the buyers are still strong after rush hour this morning... IMO

SevenFX


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## SevenFX (26 October 2007)

Just a basic chart, though all that is needed to see where downtrend breaks into uptrend starts...

SevenFX


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## adamwu (27 October 2007)

Hi SevenFX,

I am not good at chart analyzing, do you mean the true uptrend would be confirmed after the sp rise to 60c in this up cycle? Thanks.


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## ROE (30 October 2007)

someone must see value in CDR  Hunter Hall just take a 5% stake in CDR 
are there more to follow ?


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## Rainmaker2000 (30 October 2007)

That's interesting info ROE.....I doubt there will be others as the manager over there must not have too much respect for his current position to take that position....not that that's not how the industry should work....it should work like that but unfortunately the last people to make money out of this situation will be the professional fund managers who are too busy recommending BHP and RIO...Hunter Hall is of course 'boutique' but still it's a brave call


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## edvisor (30 October 2007)

Hunter Hall seems to have quite a track record. I don't think they make their investment decisions too lightly, although 5% of CDR is hardly a risk for them.






It's almost ripe to get back into CDR as a good speculative buy for mine, now that the glass half empty crowd has sold out and HH has given them the tick.


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## Rainmaker2000 (31 October 2007)

That's exactly my point.....there should be more funds like Hunter Hall.....and this call from them is a good one........my point is also that the 'funds management industry' in general a mediocre affair caring little about outperformance and more about not embarrising themselves and stopping those lovely fees from rolling in..there will thus probably not be more new substantial holders..It's going to be an interesting ride on CDR


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## ROE (31 October 2007)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> That's interesting info ROE.....I doubt there will be others as the manager over there must not have too much respect for his current position to take that position....not that that's not how the industry should work....it should work like that but unfortunately the last people to make money out of this situation will be the professional fund managers who are too busy recommending BHP and RIO...Hunter Hall is of course 'boutique' but still it's a brave call




It's always a brave call going against the market and that make these guys special. They have the guts to walk the talk and if thing do turn around and they double their profit good for them.

The thing I want to see if they going to raise that to a 7% or 10% stake down the track. Interesting time ahead


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## ROE (2 November 2007)

CDR buck the trend and up 1.27% (2:36pm) in a day full of red
guess most people don't think this stock is over price.


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## ROE (6 November 2007)

what do you know ... Hunter Hall increase their holding just over 7% now
Now I can rest a little bit easier knowing there are people out there with lot of money think the same way I do


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## Rainmaker2000 (6 November 2007)

Good call ROE....to be honest I still only hold CDR cause I was too weak and had not researched the buy enough to know I should have sold around 1$...hehe.....It's been good times on the market but I'm making sure I focus on my failure on CDR cause I just didn't do enough research.........Aside from that, I'm still holding cause it is a very strategic asset for AAPT and Optus and I want to make sure my lesson is learnt at as low a cost as possible.........I'm actually very surprised HH is going towards a blocking stake...CDR is a high risk play right now.....my belief is that its insolvent and the banks have almost conceded as much...but it does have value for their competitors


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## ROE (8 November 2007)

Another win for CDR  keep them coming
I'm actually surprise they win so many IT contracts cos it's a very competitive business

http://www.itwire.com/content/view/15225/598/


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## adamwu (19 November 2007)

ROE, thanks very much for all your info. Just don't get it why CDR won so many great contracts recently, but the sp still weak, even weaker? You rechon when the situation will change, after the next half-year ann?


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## pch (19 November 2007)

I worked in communications when commindico went bust and they offered us by far the best deal only 2 days before it all happened.. you have to be a little careful reading into this sort of stuff. Under this sort of pressure, the motivation for landing these sort of contracts can be such that short term revenue is more important long term sustainable profit.

Not saying this is the case, but it may contribute to the sp inaction despite this sort of news..


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## Rainmaker2000 (19 November 2007)

That a very good point Pch.......since the company is practically trading bankrupt because they cut their margins too fine......one would think the announcement of new contracts was bad news..........if these guys are to get it together, they've got to lock the place off to new business, cut costs to the bone and start playing hardball on contracts.......It would take determination to do that.....instead, I suspect they have opted to throw the dataroom open, keep the facade of a successful business and just wait by the phone in the hope that its AAPT calling and not their bankers


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## ROE (22 November 2007)

Hunter Hall keep increasing their stake in CDR wonder why..they now have a blocking stake in CDR so any take over has to satisfied them which is good I suppose


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## TheAbyss (22 November 2007)

What odds Soul buy CDR and the $170 m debt? Not the best outcome howver it is an outcome?

Soul are a domestic only and trying to increase their footprint into commercial and have the cash.  

A quiet tip from someone in a position to have an educated opinion (not me). We shall see i guess.


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## adamwu (27 November 2007)

anyone knows what happened on CDR today. I watched around 600,000 selling at 3:30pm, and the sp dropped to 29c again. no news no nothing.


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## ROE (27 November 2007)

Say hello to new Daddy  sack the damn management and turn the baby around 

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22825923-15306,00.html

Master meets Commander

THE management at junior telco Commander Communications could be in line for a shake-up, following recent purchases of its stock by investment management business Hunter Hall.

Following Commander's reinstatement to official quotation on the ASX on October 30, Hunter Hall doubled its stake in the company to 10 per cent in less than a week.

Hunter Hall declined to comment on its increased stake, but the firm has a track record for turning around troubled companies, which should sound warning bells for Commander's besieged management.

Earlier this year Hunter Hall turned around the operations of another troubled telco in which it was a shareholder, Orion.

Orion Telecommunications' share price was suffering after it fought off a hostile takeover attempt and, as a majority shareholder, Hunter Hall installed new management and sold off some assets.

This turnaround attracted a takeover offer that valued Orion's shares at a 60 per cent premium, a deal that was closed recently.

It is understood that Hunter Hall's interest in Commander arises from the changes the company has flagged in addition to the purchasing interest the troubled telco has attracted in recent months.

The Orion turnaround would be experience that Hunter Hall could draw on in shaking up Commander's management.


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## adamwu (27 November 2007)

Thanks ROE, hope it is only the current management selling. As they think they will no longer be the god of this company.


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## 3MT (27 November 2007)

that and/or IOOF selling down their remaining 7%. Hunter Hall is confident it can shake this company up. It's now gone back on my watchlist as a result.

I think it may even benefit from the Government's PCs for school initiative, given it owns the IPEX branded machines.

Although I imagine a turnaround would be slow going. Hence I've put a conservative 20c alert on this stock.


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## 3MT (30 November 2007)

Looks like buyers have all left the party and a capital raising is imminent.

Explains the downgrade pressure on the SP over the week, although the public was only made aware today.

An interesting point in the report today that they have ceased cutting margins substantially in order to keep customers. Management seems confident in the business moving forward.


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## sigmadelta (30 November 2007)

_> Looks like buyers have all left the party and a capital raising is imminent._

c. $4m on the buy side today, and up 30%. You may wish to retract that statement.


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## 3MT (30 November 2007)

Hi Sigma, I actually meant corporate Buyers (TEL, Optus, Soul etc)

Read a report today that reckons the price may have bottomed at 25c. Looks like I miss the boat if that's the case. (was waiting for 20c)

Good luck to those still holding. Am still a believer in the business model, but still regard this as a high risk stock.


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## ROE (1 December 2007)

3MT said:


> Hi Sigma, I actually meant corporate Buyers (TEL, Optus, Soul etc)
> 
> Read a report today that reckons the price may have bottomed at 25c. Looks like I miss the boat if that's the case. (was waiting for 20c)
> 
> Good luck to those still holding. Am still a believer in the business model, but still regard this as a high risk stock.




None of those guys can buy CDR on their terms any way it has to be on Hunter Hall term as they have blocking stake  ... Steady fast no cheap and easy way out like the chicken management at RAMS.

At first trouble they bail and look for safe haven to keep their high paying job ..disgrace


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## sigmadelta (3 December 2007)

Hunter's blocking stake is one of the most intriguing things about the recent few weeks. 

The only conclusion I can come to is that HH didn't want the whole of the company sold off for very little. Perhaps they thought that would be the most obvious option for the directors, or the most attractive one for a buyer.

HH having a stake wouldn't have blocked any partial sale AFAIK, as you don't need over 90% of the votes for that.


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## Rainmaker2000 (4 December 2007)

Hey guys.....I got to say I liked the rhetoric from management in their announcement....obviously so did the share price........They have for the first time indicated that they are inclined to stand and fight to turn the company around and even raised the prospect of not raising new equity......the worst case prospect was a fire sale which they ruled out....next worse, was an equity recap....Don't underestimate the contribution of HH which has engineered this in the Telco sector before....

If they can start making any inroads into the debt, this could be an extremely profitable little stock from these levels......a type of reverse private equity scenario.....ofcourse, I have not bought at these levels...hehehe


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## ROE (4 December 2007)

Hunter Hall increase their stake to 14% at this rate they may own the company by early next year 

real smart move these mob ..if they intend to buy the whole company just wait for the share drop then increase their stake... that way they don't have to pay a premium for it 

Last increase stake they pay average close to 31 cents a share..

I would do the same  I'm steady fast with these guys I'm not selling at anything below 90 cents


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## ROE (4 December 2007)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> Hey guys.....I got to say I liked the rhetoric from management in their announcement....obviously so did the share price........They have for the first time indicated that they are inclined to stand and fight to turn the company around and even raised the prospect of not raising new equity......the worst case prospect was a fire sale which they ruled out....next worse, was an equity recap....Don't underestimate the contribution of HH which has engineered this in the Telco sector before....
> 
> If they can start making any inroads into the debt, this could be an extremely profitable little stock from these levels......a type of reverse private equity scenario.....ofcourse, I have not bought at these levels...hehehe




I expect them to stand fast and turn the damn thing around not bailing out like the chicken RGH mobs.. no business run smooth all the time and if you cant handle the worse of the company you don't deserve to be a director


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## 3MT (5 December 2007)

HH wants more voting power to oust management, that's the only way to really turn around this ship. If management can stuff up so badly, would you want them to keep steering the ship even if they mean well.

I believe in second chances, but 3 profit downgrades in quick succession, late lodgement, shady accounting categorisations and worst , the CEO had nothing to say during the whole ordeal (ie he had no idea what went wrong) - makes it very hard to put your faith in these guys. 

I do think its a $1 stock, but not with the current management. 

Having said that I do hope they prove me wrong and turn this into a $5 company in 5 years time.


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## ROE (10 December 2007)

Thankyou Hunter Hall 

keep going and turn this ship around.

COMMANDER MANAGEMENT CHANGES
Commander Communications Limited (ASX: CDR) today announced the
appointment of Ms Amanda Lacaze as Managing Director and CEO from 7
January 2008.
Ms Lacaze succeeds Mr Adrian Coote who has today tendered his resignation as
a director.
Mr Coote, who is currently on leave, will remain in the position of CEO until 7
January 2008. This will ensure that if necessary, the company can make use of
his strong relationships with customers and suppliers in order to effect a smooth
leadership transition.
Ms Lacaze will immediately assume the role of Acting CEO.
Ms Lacaze has been appointed to the Commander Board as an executive
director and Mr Shane Allan, has been appointed as a non-executive director.
Both appointments are effective as of today.
Short biographies for each of the new directors are included at the end of this
announcement.
Commander Chairman, Elizabeth Nosworthy, also said that, while the Board will
continue to look at options over time to recapitalise the company, it will not be
contemplating any proposals for a break-up of the core elements of the company.
“With the strategic review and data room process concluded, Ms Lacaze will
focus on rebuilding the business, providing outstanding service to our many
customers and franchisees and maximising shareholder value.”
MEDIA RELATIONS
Jim Kelly
Third Person Communications
T +61 2 8298 6100
M 0412 549 083
E jim@thirdperson.net.au
Page 2 of 3
“We are delighted to welcome Amanda Lacaze and Shane Allan to Commander.
“With extensive experience in the telecommunications sector and a proven track
record of optimising the performance of public companies, the Board is confident
Amanda Lacaze has the skills and experience to set the course for Commander’s
future success.
“Amanda will have the complete support of the Board as she approaches this
important task with energy and focus.
“Shane Allan also has a strong telecommunications and finance background and
will be a welcome addition to the Board,” Ms Nosworthy continued.
Ms Nosworthy thanked Mr Coote for the important contribution he had made to
the company over the past 4 years. “Adrian was instrumental in building the
Commander business into the country’s pre-eminent provider of communication
solutions to thousands of SME’s, corporates and Government Departments,” Ms
Nosworthy said.
“The fact that Commander has been winning large contracts and industry awards
at one of the most difficult times in our history demonstrates that he has helped
to build an enviable organisation.
“Adrian has led the company through a period of major acquisition and growth
and has developed and articulated a clear strategic direction for the company.
The Board continues to support that strategy as do our many loyal customers
and franchisees.
“I am sure that our many employees, franchisees, customers and suppliers wish
him well for the future. The Board also thanks him for his efforts. He leaves the
company with our support, friendship and best wishes.


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## ROE (30 January 2008)

I'm with Hunter Hall on this one with latest announcement.... I double my stake in CDR today and turn this baby around 

Sale to price ratio is too good not to turn it around


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## ROE (6 February 2008)

New CEO just add another 530,000 shares to her holding on the market trade. 
Things cant be that bad for her


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## Rainmaker2000 (6 February 2008)

Yes, I am still on board this sucker....and it would be mighty sweet if she could pull it out of the fire......early signs look good....although, I was not impressed by their first asset sale........they sold the asset for a delayed payment of about 3 million and the company who bought it upgraded their profit forecast by 50% because of the transaction.......someone got a good deal and it wasn't Commander..hehe


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## ROE (6 February 2008)

Trust me they got an ok deal..they still retain the most profit part of the business, the distribution .

I like this CEO, she is doing a good job and she put her money where he mouth is

she do hold interest in M2 as well so she wouldn't screw them... she has done similar deal with M2 when she turn around Orion and it works out all well for everyone


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## Rainmaker2000 (6 February 2008)

I'll trust you on this one as my failure in this case was buying something outside my expertise, which hasn't changed...hehe....I do however have a firm belief that this is worth way more than 20cents..the bankers have backed off...a turnaround of a company with this type of revenue could be incredible.....just a 1% reduction in costs has huge leverage


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## ROE (6 February 2008)

I put a lot of stake into this stock and the CEO it better work out well for me
or all my profit for the last 2 years will go down the drain..

I give this stock 3 years to turn around and I be happy with 20% P/A return 
so 60% return from today price in 3 years time


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## Pager (6 February 2008)

I bought a small parcel today as well on the back of the new CEO also buying, they divested some non core assets and the fact Hunter Hall have taken a significant stake.

Will hold for the long term and although it may take a while at 18.5 cents its well worth a high risk and speculative punt IMO but my stake reflects that.


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## ROE (7 February 2008)

Hunter Hall is the reason for the new CEO, the restructure and get rid of low margin non-core asset.

They have an arm of turn around good company run by bad executives 
the new CEO is a hand of their arm


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## Rainmaker2000 (7 February 2008)

Judging from their last income statement, they have a lot of low margin assets..hehe...I'm just surprised the Optuses of this world did not pounce on market share leader when they could.......I bet they thought it too much 'risk'....funny enough, when she turns it round they will queue for the assets at multiples of the current prices


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## TheAbyss (7 February 2008)

Optus would not be interested in Commander. 

CDR did/ do  hardware (which it has just divested itself of all hardware based staff and returned any orders for hardware that have not yet been delivered), project management (Volante) and resold carrier time (via their RSL Com purchase).

Optius already are a carrier so they do not need or want CDR other than to pick up a cheap client data base. Optus have a strategic alliance with Cisco for hardware based solutions which includes project management and implementation.

The likely suitors for CDR are third tier switchless resellers such as Soul etc who can lift themselves from domestic to a B2B client base. CDR are going to struggle with yearly revenue targets for a while unless they get their CDR franchises to lift their levels of data management expertise to corporate level quickly in my opinion. The coporate sales teams are now very thin and their sales figures are suffering.

If CDR were mine i would buy AAPT off NZ Telecom and lift revenues by selling data solutions into that base rather than sell out for a fraction of what it could be worth with some decent management.


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## Pager (11 February 2008)

Looks like Hunter hall were buying up more last week, there stake is now nearly 20%.

still hovering around 18 cents though.

fingers crossed


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## ocelot (26 June 2008)

Ouch I just looked into this stock and it is down to .7c I wonder how much lower it will go or a possible breakup of the business?


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## yogi (27 June 2008)

The problem is a lack of announcments, compounded by the end of financia year. There is meant to be some ann coming out soon. +ve or -ve it can't go much further.


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## SevenFX (1 July 2008)

CDR Gap up 17% though on very low volume, and may have something to do with http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080630/pdf/319x8tcp15lc0d.pdf

SevenFX


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## ocelot (23 July 2008)

This one is a basket case literally all of the staff have moved onto other business areas. Data#3 DTL has picked up the HP products side of things have a look at their shareprice since!! The rest of the Volante staff have dispersed with a number joining Datacom there is only scraps left.


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## Spork (8 August 2008)

End of the line, folks.  Commander just announced this morning they've gone into voluntary admin due to not being able to get a debt extension.  Been on my watchlist for a while, but I realised this one was poison round about Feb.


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## gfresh (8 August 2008)

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...ers-appoints-administrator-20080808-3rzu.html


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## ROE (8 August 2008)

Doh 15K down the drain following Hunter Hall lead 
Live and learn  

Banks getting wet feet, salvage the business before its too late 
Amanda is doing a good job but sometimes there is so much sh*t you can push ..this time the load is too heavy...


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## tropolite (8 August 2008)

ROE said:


> Doh 15K down the drain following Hunter Hall lead
> Live and learn
> 
> Banks getting wet feet, salvage the business before its too late
> Amanda is doing a good job but sometimes there is so much sh*t you can push ..this time the load is too heavy...





Ohh... being relatively new to the Share Market, does this news mean all sharesholders have lost their funds? Commander are still going to be working as 'business as usual' (taken from the announcement). That's be a bumma.

But if so, we should be able to write off our losses tax time right?

Cheers


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## bryaneasy (8 August 2008)

Yeah it basically means the major 4 get back all their debt and it will happen in a rapid, machine-gun like fire sale, which means we all lose our money .

Stupid speccie lucky I didn't wack too much in it...


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## vida (8 August 2008)

gosh, i was at a wedding in January this year and the guest next to me was an employee at Commander telling me that their restructuring was working out well and the future would see the company doing well again. He seemed extremely confident and over a lot of wine had me believing him and thinking I should buy some CDR shares at some stage soon.  Luckily I didn't buy any as after the wine wore off I decided that he probably didn't know anything.


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