# SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*



## ivant

In continuation of a thread hijacked from Family Guy, I thought it would be fair we move the chatter here 

It all started on a rainy day right here.

So where will it all go now...


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## ivant

Aussiest said:


> But, i have to say, wasn't today the weirdest day (in the markets)?
> 
> Just seems like the ceiling of the bounce, or the floor of the next run up... More likely to be the ceiling of bounce. The SPI hasn't rallied at all.
> 
> I'm guessing that where the All Ords ends up tonight will be important .
> 
> Should be interesting...




I think at the moment nothing really is a surprise. Look at the 3/4 hour charts, how their MACD is falling (a big fan of that). Also the 2 day plots... We are massively overbought. Just seems more likely that its the ceiling IMO. 

Let's wait and find out


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## beamstas

A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming







Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything 

Cheers
Brad


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## Mr J

The third day of boredom for me, hopefully followed by the third late afternoon bounce.


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## Aussiest

ivant said:


> We are massively oversold.




Do you mean overbought?! Freudian slip 

Yeah, today was really flat. Still 1 hr to go. Taking bets now 

Maybe this is what a regular day in the market should look like (apart from the stagnation): some sectors up, some down. Some flat


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## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> The third day of boredom for me.




And for me.  Wednesday, Nikkei shut, Thursday some great moves globally, but obviously some idiot decided he would use this strength to do his end of month selling!  Today, practically all of Asia shut.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Nikkei shut.  

Then we are dead every day preceeding a US public holiday.

Very annoying!  

Think we will break down this afternoon


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## Sean K

beamstas said:


> A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming



I'm not sure about perfect. It's more ascending, than symmetrical. I am still counting on it to fall over for more consolidation before going much higher. 3800 ish on the XJO looks pretty tough. Happy for it to push through though.


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## ivant

beamstas said:


> A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




Haha i didnt say you didnt know anything Brad, i just claimed you weren't open minded  This will never get old  haha. Although my EW is weak, isn't it always a little hard to predict the 4th and 5th waves?



Mr J said:


> The third day of boredom for me, hopefully followed by the third late afternoon bounce.




I agree man, our markets are dull. Actually the US isn't too much better. UK is pretty active. Time will tell if this continues, but McClellan Oscillator is suggesting a heavy heavy move before the end of the weekend!



Aussiest said:


> Do you mean overbought?! Freudian slip
> 
> Yeah, today was really flat. Still 1 hr to go. Taking bets now
> 
> Maybe this is what a regular day in the market should look like (apart from the stagnation): some sectors up, some down. Some flat




Lol thanks for that!!! I fixed that, naughty naughty Ivan. Yea maybe if we broke 900 last night on the S&P, we would be in a bull market, and then this is what everyday would be like. Macquarie is in a trading halt. Oh oh.. Lucky I sold them a few weeks ago at 30.


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## MRC & Co

kennas said:


> 3800 ish on the XJO looks pretty tough. Happy for it to push through though.




If they can close us above there one of these days (at cash close) = bullish.

If not = bearish.

My


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## beamstas

> Haha i didnt say you didnt know anything Brad, i just claimed you weren't open minded  This will never get old  haha. Although my EW is weak, isn't it always a little hard to predict the 4th and 5th waves?




We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.
Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty

If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.

The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.

Now that it has we could basically go anywhere.

I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.. Because i don't know what its going to do in the future.  All i do is manage risk 

*SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??*

I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this! 

My  - Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.


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## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> And for me.  Wednesday, Nikkei shut, Thursday some great moves globally, but obviously some idiot decided he would use this strength to do his end of month selling!  Today, practically all of Asia shut.
> 
> Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Nikkei shut.
> 
> Then we are dead every day preceeding a US public holiday.
> 
> Very annoying!
> 
> Think we will break down this afternoon




Haha, obviously this idiot found a good time to dump his contracts... Why is Asia all shut? 

I think its likely that a break will happen. US tonight has unemployment come out I believe.. When is the US holiday? Man i'm behind on the loop..




MRC & Co said:


> If they can close us above there one of these days (at cash close) = bullish.
> 
> If not = bearish.
> 
> My




Maybe not that far... Although I think above 3850, we definitely have some bullish trends...


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## Mr J

ivant said:
			
		

> When is the US holiday?




According to the NYSE, not for a few weeks.



			
				MRC & Co said:
			
		

> Think we will break down this afternoon




No, the bounce is on. Partly because it may have just started, but mainly because I'm off to the shops (always a sign to take the trade I may have made).



			
				beamstas said:
			
		

> SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??
> 
> I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!




I don't care, just as long as the daily ranges are decent. For the immediate future, down would be good as the rally needs some balancing.


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## Sean K

beamstas said:


> *SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??*
> 
> I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!
> 
> My  - Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.







> We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.



So we're going down, for sure....



> Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty



If we break up it won't be pretty?



> If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.



Agree. What if it's choppy?



> The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.



What? So, the bearish divergance is unwound, isn't that more bullish?



> I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.



  Isn't that what you've just been trying to do? Refer to second quote.


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## MRC & Co

ivant said:


> I think its likely that a break will happen. US tonight has unemployment come out I believe.. When is the US holiday? Man i'm behind on the loop..
> 
> Maybe not that far... Although I think above 3850, we definitely have some bullish trends...




No US holiday, just vening my frustration at our markets inability to trade properly when the larger markets are shut.  It's like lunchtime all day long!  

Na, 3800 a far more important number to close XJO CASH above IMO. We've already closed above 3750 numerous times, right?


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## Frank D

*S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern*

I've been factoring in a lower Friday close for this week:- looking for a move back into 844 in the short-term

But it won't happen unless it breaks support (5-day range)

Yesterday's reversal down should have closed below support and not 
bounce.

It would not surprise me to see US markets close higher and around Friday's 
highs

And then look for a higher Weekly open next week back down into 844


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## Aussiest

This is from nomore4s in the *trading blows goats* thread. Interesting take (sorry nomore4s for moving your quote, just thought it was relavant ):



nomore4s said:


> All that bad news has been beaten into everyone for months now, none of it is unexpected. Everyone that wanted to sell are now out of the market, the panic has subsided and as all the sellers are now out of the market the line of least resistance is up - for now anyway.
> The people who were buying in at the bottom in the face of all the gloom & doom are not going to be shaken out easily I wouldn't think, so this again creates less supply. So while demand might not be what it once was, at this point of time supply has dried up.


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## Sean K

Aussiest said:


> This is from nomore4s in the *trading blows goats* thread. Interesting take (sorry nomore4s for moving your quote, just thought it was relavant ):



I agree to some extent. Some will simply add to their positions.

However, I think there's still some taxi driver/hair dresser/HC type characters still lurking who will dump on the next momentum led lemming rush to the cliff edge. 

I'm still waiting for them to be flushed down the loo.


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## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> No, the bounce is on. Partly because it may have just started, but mainly because I'm off to the shops (always a sign to take the trade I may have made).




Yes, note the wink!  

On a day like today, it was always likely the range would be small, so more likely we would trade back up into it after breaking this mornings lows than running away downwards (of course, post cash could see anything, when the wild west opens).  Also helps the S&P is going up, however, I doubt we will go as far, perhaps some unwinding of long SPI, short S&P spreads over the stress test period and before the weekend.  

Gee you spend some time at the shops!

Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.


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## ivant

beamstas said:


> We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.
> Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty
> 
> If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.
> 
> The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.
> 
> Now that it has we could basically go anywhere.
> 
> I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.. Because i don't know what its going to do in the future.  All i do is manage risk
> 
> *SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??*
> 
> I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!
> 
> My  - Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.




Well obviously we do agree on more things than we originally thought! Haha, I strongly agree in reference to predicting where the market will go, and that we manage risk. We get a good view on the market and put out money where our mouth is. Then if something goes haywire we cut. 

I have noticed the unwinding on the daily charts, however the longer term scales are still overbought.. 2 day charts and weekly charts are still a little too high for my liking... I guess time shall tell 

I am amazed that so many people are bearish, and yet its not coming through.. That is the only worrying thing in my view.


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## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, note the wink!
> 
> On a day like today, it was always likely the range would be small, so more likely we would trade back up into it after breaking this mornings lows than running away downwards (of course, post cash could see anything, when the wild west opens).  Also helps the S&P is going up, however, I doubt we will go as far, perhaps some unwinding of long SPI, short S&P spreads over the stress test period and before the weekend.
> 
> Gee you spend some time at the shops!
> 
> Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.




Hey that will hurt me! I have 120 contracts riding on a fall lol! Don't wish for that... lol...

We are getting active now!! We moved 5 points in the last 7 minutes!! Its on.. Although we are reverting to futures only, so we shall see how it goes from now. We could get some movement in the last 1/2 hour..

In the US, the shorts haven't really been around too much during this rally. Believe you me, they will come back. Historically all lows need to be retested. All the mum and dad investors are weak buyers, they will sell out as soon as they get hit. and if they dont, who really cares? One man's decision will not affect the market, unless you are shorting with too many contracts...say 50,000.


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## MRC & Co

ha ha, sorry Ivan, long-tem it's best, but I do hope you cash in on your big short!

You also have monthly seasonality in your favour (which hasn't been mentioned here, but I do see you mention it in your blog, and it should never been taken too lightly), sell in May and go away!


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## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, sorry Ivan, long-tem it's best, but I do hope you cash in on your big short!
> 
> You also have monthly seasonality in your favour (which hasn't been mentioned here, but I do see you mention it in your blog, and it should never been taken too lightly), sell in May and go away!




Without doubt!!! I posted a thing in general chat about that. Happy first of May!!  I'd be worried about buying in if i was a stock operator before we retest the lows and have that capitulation type scenario..


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## Mr J

MRC & Co said:


> Gee you spend some time at the shops!
> 
> Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.




It's my daily adventure. Out of the shower, and I'm seeing a bounce. I took a a punt on it earlier for a few points but was pushed out of it (by 1 point of course).


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## beamstas

ivant said:


> Hey that will hurt me! I have 120 contracts riding on a fall lol! Don't wish for that... lol....




$3000 a point..

Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point

Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?


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## sammy84

kennas said:


> However, I think there's still some taxi driver/hair dresser/HC type characters still lurking who will dump on the next momentum led lemming rush to the cliff edge.




We've had less so called market analysts this time around calling a bottom, I think they have even been burnt enough. The bounce had a lot of conviction, and wasn't caused by mom and dads. I too have a feeling that it will be very hard to flush the last round of buyers out.


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## ivant

beamstas said:


> $3000 a point..
> 
> Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point
> 
> Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?




120 minis, remember?.. thats $600 a point  Let's say I'm rather stupidly aggressive. I am pretty confident of a move here.. I'll get out if S&P goes above 900 pretty confidently. Something around 920. So about 300-400 points. Yea i know. More than half my account gone. But I feel there is a reason for doing this. I don't normally go in this aggressively. Most I have had before this is 60 contracts. 



sammy84 said:


> We've had less so called market analysts this time around calling a bottom, I think they have even been burnt enough. The bounce had a lot of conviction, and wasn't caused by mom and dads. I too have a feeling that it will be very hard to flush the last round of buyers out.




The bounce itself had some conviction, but the bottom didn't I seemed to be the only one running around with my hands in the air saying that last 15 minute burst from 6450 that Friday night on the DOW was a small level capitulation.


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## skc

beamstas said:


> $3000 a point..
> 
> Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point
> 
> Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?




I believe ivant refer to $5 mini contrcats, so just $600 per point. Penuts really.

My punt is on the market going sideways in a 300 point range, with recent highs being the upperbound. The recent strength reminded people how oversold the stocks were - and that people may not make those mistakes again.

However, new bad fundamental news may push market to new lows. What news are new and unexpected? May be a few developing country going bankrupt will do it... Mexico, Eastern Europe, Argentina

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html?.&.pf=real-estate


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## MRC & Co

beamstas said:


> $3000 a point..
> 
> Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point
> 
> Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?




They are minis.  So 500-600 or closer to .15%.


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## ivant

skc said:


> I believe ivant refer to $5 mini contrcats, so just $600 per point. Penuts really.
> 
> My punt is on the market going sideways in a 300 point range, with recent highs being the upperbound. The recent strength reminded people how oversold the stocks were - and that people may not make those mistakes again.
> 
> However, new bad fundamental news may push market to new lows. What news are new and unexpected? May be a few developing country going bankrupt will do it... Mexico, Eastern Europe, Argentina
> 
> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html?.&.pf=real-estate




Sideways seems to be a logical assumption. I think 3300 will be a difficult level to get through, and we will retest lows if that gets breached. I get the feeling we may go lower though. Maybe 2500? Who knows.


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## sammy84

ivant said:


> The bounce itself had some conviction, but the bottom didn't I seemed to be the only one running around with my hands in the air saying that last 15 minute burst from 6450 that Friday night on the DOW was a small level capitulation.




The capitulation happened in November IMO, then it took till march to really wash everyone out. Waiting for another capitulation would seem to easy. The same way people are waiting for substantially improved news before calling a bottom. This market forces you into making the hard decisions rather than waiting for the obvious. 

I'm not calling a bottom myself, but am trading that way. At least with smart money management if I'm wrong the consequences wont be that bad.
My average hold is a few months and I started entering a few new longs last night in the US and today.


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## ivant

sammy84 said:


> The capitulation happened in November IMO, then it took till march to really wash everyone out. Waiting for another capitulation would seem to easy. The same way people are waiting for substantially improved news before calling a bottom. This market forces you into making the hard decisions rather than waiting for the obvious.
> 
> I'm not calling a bottom myself, but am trading that way. At least with smart money management if I'm wrong the consequences wont be that bad.
> My average hold is a few months and I started entering a few new longs last night in the US and today.




Well the capitulation in October was stronger than the one in November. I'm not really waiting for a capitulation, I'd say I'm more watching out for it. Nearly killed me in October. Haha, we are on opposite sides of the trade.


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## Cartman

ivant said:


> Well the capitulation in October was stronger than the one in November. I'm not really waiting for a capitulation, I'd say I'm more watching out for it. Nearly killed me in October. Haha, we are on opposite sides of the trade.





G'day young M8 ---- for what its worth, i agree in principle with your plan of attack --- i would have gone in a little less aggressive at this point though  

for the record, i think we will see a retest of 3804  (yeah, i can be specific !!)  2nite,  --- if all goes to plan, the start of your perceived capitulation will become evident by the morning --

the latest run up had some serious momentum behind it, and that can take time to diffuse (the deep pockets have to create a false market to sell to -- ie they push the price higher over time to sell their positions to other less wary deep pockets/retail traders etc --- lol  --- )  

by tuesday will tell the story i reckon ---- if we are above 3800-3850 on wednesday, some soul searching may be in order  for shorts 

but if the momentum has shifted, that would still be ok ----- very pivotable point atm ---- 

you are a brave man to be holding the amount of contracts you are atm Ive ---- but as the saying goes --- a faint heart never won a fair lady (or something like that   haha ---)

good luck my friend --- i hope u make a squillion !!


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## ivant

Cartman said:


> G'day young M8 ---- for what its worth, i agree in principle with your plan of attack --- i would have gone in a little less aggressive at this point though
> 
> for the record, i think we will see a retest of 3804  (yeah, i can be specific !!)  2nite,  --- if all goes to plan, the start of your perceived capitulation will become evident by the morning --
> 
> the latest run up had some serious momentum behind it, and that can take time to diffuse (the deep pockets have to create a false market to sell to -- ie they push the price higher over time to sell their positions to other less wary deep pockets/retail traders etc --- lol  --- )
> 
> by tuesday will tell the story i reckon ---- if we are above 3800-3850 on wednesday, some soul searching may be in order  for shorts
> 
> but if the momentum has shifted, that would still be ok ----- very pivotable point atm ----
> 
> you are a brave man to be holding the amount of contracts you are atm Ive ---- but as the saying goes --- a faint heart never won a fair lady (or something like that   haha ---)
> 
> good luck my friend --- i hope u make a squillion !!




I don't expect capitulation at these levels, i expect it if we break the lows. Which is 3100. "3804" [!!] seems a logical level to assume. I am thinking that Dow could retest 8300-50. If not we will see. I think most of the run up was generated by institutions dumping. I don't think I will get more aggressive than this. But 3900 will worry me... Thanks for the post  Always great to hear from you


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## Cartman

ivant said:


> I don't expect capitulation at these levels, i expect it if we break the lows. Which is 3100. "3804" [!!] seems a logical level to assume. I am thinking that Dow could retest 8300-50. If not we will see. I think most of the run up was generated by institutions dumping. I don't think I will get more aggressive than this. But 3900 will worry me... Thanks for the post  Always great to hear from you




Agree, i dont think capitulation will hit for a while ----   i would like to actually see a slight spike 2nite followed by a lower close (similar to 2days close) --- ie a rejection of some sort to give confidence to the short side ---- 

as i say Ive --- i like your plan --- it just concerns me that the momentum up has not quite died off yet on this leg ---- (all though its potentially close)

have you considered cashing a few contracts in at this point (break even), so you can re-enter at a higher point ?? --- (nothing wrong with "insurance" ) --- 

would hate to see you lose too much of that capital/hard work just cause the entry was 50-100  points off  

good luck with it   ----- i admire your ticker !! 


ps gotta head off soon ---talk 2morrow when the Oz is at 3765 !!   lol ----


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## Aussiest

ivant said:


> I get the feeling we may go lower though.




Gosh, a 'feeling'?! I hope you're right


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## Aussiest

Last night: ouch...


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## cutz

Don't worry it's not over yet, it should be interesting to see if maquarie's opening is enough to send shockwaves through the finance sector.


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## Aussiest

Hmm, yeah... Why do i get the feeling that Macquaries opening might not be that bad, or if it is a little down, that it won't rebound pretty quickly?


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## sammy84

Macquairie has a high beta with the market. If the market moves mac might just get dragged along with it


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## skc

Cartman said:


> for the record, i think we will see a retest of 3804  (yeah, i can be specific !!)  2nite,  --- if all goes to plan, the start of your perceived capitulation will become evident by the morning --




What brand of crystal do you use?


From Bloomberg
                  Close      Change   Open         *High*   Low
SPI 200	3,782.00	23.00	   3,759.00	  *3,804.00	*3,758.00


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## sails

skc said:


> What brand of crystal do you use?...




Yeah, would be interesting to know how Cartman could be so specific in a forecast AND get it so right...


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## ivant

I have to say, that the reason Cartman was so right, is because, he essentially IS THE MARKET. Trust me  On a serious note, Cartman knows more about the markets than all of us combined! He is very in the zone at the moment! Keep it up man! Maybe put a little money to the test?


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## Cartman

skc said:


> What brand of crystal do you use?




lol --- extra sprinkling of lead oxide but its murder on the lungs  !! 



sails said:


> Yeah, would be interesting to know how Cartman could be so specific in a forecast AND get it so right...




would you believe Gann cycles !!  --- or i just got lucky   ---- 



ivant said:


> Keep it up man! Maybe put a little money to the test?




haha --- M8 i really hope this rolls over a little by tuesday/wednesday for ya ----- i'm nervous and its YOUR money !!   (prob easier not to watch the open tomorrow !!)  --- good luck.


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## sails

Cartman said:


> ...would you believe Gann cycles !!  --- or i just got lucky   ----




lol - I initially typed that very question in my post with an ..... 
...but wasn't game to mention the G word on ASF anymore, so promptly deleted it... 

Dunno what to believe - could easily have either been Gann, luck or both - or maybe something else but crystal is harder to believe... Anyway, whatever the method, well done with the forecast!

Now, any chance of letting us know your forecast for the high and low tomorrow on the spi?


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## beamstas

Cartman my IB account name is beamster and my password is iwearpinkfluffyundies

Just trade the SPI for me please ty


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## MRC & Co

LOL C-man, what a call!


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## Cartman

sails said:


> Now, any chance of letting us know your forecast for the high and low tomorrow on the spi?




haha ---- no doubt ive set a precedent i will never be able to emulate ---- although to be fair i made a similar call on the EUR/GBP the other day   lol --- but that is more up my alley  !! 



beamstas said:


> Cartman my IB account name is beamster and my password is iwearpinkfluffyundies
> 
> Just trade the SPI for me please ty




how the hell did you get my password !!!!   ------ security to section 9  !!!!!



MRC & Co said:


> LOL C-man, what a call!




lol ---- hi Mirc ---- kinda funny eh !!

actually very interested in what yourself and TH are reading into the DOM at the moment ??

the reason ive taken an interest in the "Oz" is because Ivan has a pretty serious "Short commitment"  riding on it ---------  and i'm a little concerned that the big boyz might squeeze this a little higher as they reverse their "long" positions b4 a dump ----------  

you (or TH) got any "vibe" on whats going on with that ?? ---- Cheers.


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## MRC & Co

Cartman said:


> you (or TH) got any "vibe" on whats going on with that ?? ---- Cheers.




To be honest, I've got very mixed signals at the moment.  There are definately some huge profit takers in there, however, the buying is just relentless.  

Data being released is very very mixed at the moment, some is great, some is terrible and the reactions to data either way of expectations, are all over the place.  It really makes me think this is a very critical point we are at, at the moment.  

I'm still bearish, but a close of the XJO above 3800 one day, will turn me bullish.

We false broke the previous Jan highs, and there is rarely a false break of a false break, so I would be worried about shorting a spike if this does turn bullish again.  I think it would be more likely for us to go through the 4000s.  

That's my  anyways, I know TH is bullish at the moment.  

Cheers and good trading Cartman!


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## Bobby

ivant said:


> I have to say, that the reason Cartman was so right, is because, he essentially IS THE MARKET. Trust me  On a serious note, Cartman knows more about the markets than all of us combined!




Whats really funny is the dopes who bagged him not long ago  !

Go Cartman Go


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## Cartman

Bobby said:


> Whats really funny is the dopes who bagged him not long ago  !
> 
> Go Cartman Go




cheers Bob  



MRC & Co said:


> To be honest, I've got very mixed signals at the moment.  There are definately some huge profit takers in there, however, the buying is just relentless.
> 
> Data being released is very very mixed at the moment, some is great, some is terrible and the reactions to data either way of expectations, are all over the place.  It really makes me think this is a very critical point we are at, at the moment.
> 
> I'm still bearish, but a close of the XJO above 3800 one day, will turn me bullish.
> 
> We false broke the previous Jan highs, and there is rarely a false break of a false break, so I would be worried about shorting a spike if this does turn bullish again.  I think it would be more likely for us to go through the 4000s.
> 
> That's my  anyways, I know TH is bullish at the moment.
> 
> Cheers and good trading Cartman!




thanks for that Mirc ------   agree, looks very pivotal point atm ----  4000 !!! geez -- Ivan just had pups !!!  --- ive got 3875 as a maximum roll over point, but would like to see it turn around a lot lower than that !!  if it clears that with any upward momentum, all bets are off  !!  Cheers.


----------



## ivant

Well I guess only time will tell where we go from here! A fair bit of data coming out in US. THey aren't generating anything. Stress tests, and Unemployment data this week.... Sell on the news on Thursday and some buying on Friday after a shocking number? All possible!

Let's see how we go in the morning.

Ivan


----------



## Bobby

Ivan seeing you have the guts to hold for now , my feeling is another up before the plunge later next week.

Directional trading is your forte :-  go for it   

Best wishes to your success  .


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> my feeling is another up before the plunge later next week.




I've been saying that too. At first i was bearish, but that was when it last reached 3880.

I'm thinking it will get to 4000-4100 before fatigue sets in.


----------



## sails

That was some large volume that went through - I have 292 lots showing up on a 15 second chart.  I noticed a seller sitting in the queue with 240 lots.  TH or MRC - is there anything to be read into that because the spi continues to climb at the moment?  Or is it a case of trade into it?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> That was some large volume that went through - I have 292 lots showing up on a 15 second chart.  I noticed a seller sitting in the queue with 240 lots.  TH or MRC - is there anything to be read into that because the spi continues to climb at the moment?  Or is it a case of trade into it?




Just some blocking volume at 3120 from one of the Boyz, MrC? (250 sitting in the ask). I got short at 3818 after trading long all morning. so too many others as it got quickly chewed up!! Actually think as per usual it was mostly pull - mostly cuz I managed to cover and flip into it.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Just some blocking volume at 3120 from one of the Boyz, MrC? (250 sitting in the ask). I got short at 3818 after trading long all morning. so too many others as it got quickly chewed up!! Actually think as per usual it was mostly pull - mostly cuz I managed to cover and flip into it.




Hmm. I did the same short trade, and closed soon as the 250 was chewed up. 

But I didn't reverse - and Mr Market gave people plenty of chances to enter long around 3122 mark. Need more training on finger quickness!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Was waiting for 3850 to be re tested, looking like.... a...... fail??


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Just some blocking volume at 3120 from one of the Boyz, MrC? (250 sitting in the ask). I got short at 3818 after trading long all morning. so too many others as it got quickly chewed up!! Actually think as per usual it was mostly pull - mostly cuz I managed to cover and flip into it.




Good one - at least you managed to flip!  I'm still in the demo trying to work out Frank's levels...

Yeah, I find it's hard to work out if the big volume is pushing or pulling.  On occasions, I have noticed if big volume gets chewed up like that, it will often go against it for a while - and often quite strongly.  But then not impossible for it to eventually come back down to those levels or even lower.

Also, I guess with the SPI, there is always the possibility that one of the boyz are using the spi to hedge something else.  So while it looks bearish, perhaps it is just a hedge to an otherwise bullish position.  If so, that would have to make volume a less reliable indicator on the spi.


----------



## 42S

Just some blocking volume at 3120 from one of the Boyz, MrC? (250 sitting in the ask). I got short at 3818 after trading long all morning. so too many others as it got quickly chewed up!! Actually think as per usual it was mostly pull - mostly cuz I managed to cover and flip into it. 
__________________


Please    enlighten  me  on who you think the boyz ?? are ? institutions  or Locals?


----------



## Trembling Hand

42S said:


> Please    enlighten  me  on who you think the boyz ?? are ? institutions  or Locals?




Sorry 42s they didn't have a name attached to them 

Maybe you can tell us?


----------



## 42S

What   you   want more ? with only  3 mins to go   till everyone gets back from lunch


----------



## ivant

Well talk about getting raped... 

Someone tell me that was institutional selling, please? Not that I am any less bearish, but that spike in the last 15 minutes of trading was a little painful.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> Well talk about getting raped...
> 
> Someone tell me that was institutional selling, please? Not that I am any less bearish, but that spike in the last 15 minutes of trading was a little painful.






Where is ya average entry price sitting?


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> Where is ya average entry price sitting?




3785ish. A good 100 points needed lol.


----------



## Ardyne

Ive been waiting for this to drop for ages. I see the ascending triangle formation but everything else was looking bearish. Last time the U.S had a run like this was back in 2006. 

Ivan I hope the U.S gets smashed tonight and you can get back into the money real soon. When that DOES happen  remember the pain today because you seem to be a successful trader and you can do this till your 90 years old, you dont have to hang your balls out like you are.

GO THE BEARS


----------



## ivant

Ardyne said:


> Ive been waiting for this to drop for ages. I see the ascending triangle formation but everything else was looking bearish. Last time the U.S had a run like this was back in 2006.
> 
> Ivan I hope the U.S gets smashed tonight and you can get back into the money real soon. When that DOES happen  remember the pain today because you seem to be a successful trader and you can do this till your 90 years old, you dont have to hang your balls out like you are.
> 
> GO THE BEARS




Hahaha thanks heaps man!! Thankfully the pain isn't great at the moment. Although at 3950s ill be feeling a lot. I'm ok at the moment. I thought we could be testing the 3900 levels. It is higher that i was not anticipating. I'm kind of hoping for a smashing over this week in Chicago. All i can do now is hope. I have definitely assumed way too much risk on this trade, and I knew that i was doing it. So here is the day of judgement, either I over-trade and the risk pays off, or I start over. Well not over, but start with small sizes again. Obviously I prefer the first option 

This is looking too much like May 2008, when we tested 6000. Ironically, I was shorting that and lost 12k in the process, and I got closed out at the 5950s levels.


----------



## Rick_Hunter

Goodluck Ivan, I also hope it all works out for you (and for me! haha), as I admire the way you trade, completely different from the crowd and having strong beliefs in what you do. It takes a lot of courage to step away from the crowd, especially when things continue to go against you.


On a better note, it seems the SPI futures are waking up a bit, already down about 20-30pts from the 3883 finish at the end of today (where I thought it was ridiculously overbought considering the US futures barely budged all day)
So even if the US stays flat tonight, I think our market will come back to reality a bit (I hope)

What I'm really afraid of in a few days time, is the results of the "banking" stress tests. I just can't help feel that this is gonna give Wall Street another reason to rally one more time, and perhaps strongly. The last time Geinther released the new banking plan, even though almost every economist said it was crap, wall st. went up 7%!!


----------



## MichaelD

My .

I have no idea what the future holds and am not making any judgements on any specific trades, but if we continue upwards like this, then this is a good example of the major pitfall of mean reversion trading.

viz - you're right most of the time, and that makes you feel good, but when you're wrong, you're taken to the cleaners and lose months, even years, of hard work.

It's an interesting contrast to the trend following modus operandi, where you feel bad pretty much all the time as you're constantly in drawdown, with fleeting moments of happiness as you reach equity peaks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

For some reason I'm having this argument with this Dude via PM. As I have no idea why I've triggered such interest from him I am now posting it here







			
				42S said:
			
		

> Trembling Hand said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 42S said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I clear through MF I  did  use Fortis   but  they don't have Locals  , offices  like MF does .  On the other hand   it is possible to deal with  Fortis through Propex  if you  want to cut a deal with them .
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for that but its of no use to me.
> 
> And
> 
> FYI
> 
> I don't claim to be a great trader. Just a profitable one and have posted or sent people statements representing 1000s of trades to prove it.
> 
> which is far more than anyone else on these boards have done to back up their bullsh!t
> 
> cheers,
> Jason
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> FYI ?
> 
> I have given that some thought  and me thinks you are telling porky  pies  , the boy's at Propex  tell me you think  your a gun  but aint  so .
> 
> Anyone who is  constantly  posting on  forums about their  success yet who is  trading retail  well say no  more .
> 
> Maybe  that is  why Max didn't give you a spot ? .
> 
> Was trying to  give you a leg up  but  if you want to be a sarcastic prick  two can play that game .
Click to expand...



What the hell are you talking about. You fool.

Where have I constantly posted about my success.

I have openly said that I didn't get a gig at propex 3or more years ago. 

I have also said that the reason i don't try to get another gig at propex is I would have to trade larger than my 3 to 5 lot scalps on the SPI and HSI. which would then require me to change my trading style just to make the same.

Where the hell did I say ANYWHERE I was a gun. Where have I ever claimed any amount of profitable trading without backing it up with a statement. You are a damn weird Person to come along and bang on about this rubbish. Why don't you just post here in the open and get to your point.

Cheers


----------



## Cartman

ivant said:


> 3785ish. A good 100 points needed




"Ive" --- u know my position on your position ----- No advice as such from me, but considering i have been where you are a couple of times  , there are a squillion things you could/ or need to consider ----

a) what if it continues higher
b) am i in a position to ride that higher level out
c) what are my current options b4 it gets to that point
d) how much am i prepared to risk, and what are the best methods to limit that risk at this point in time
e) is it possible to turn the trade into an eventual winning trade by adding "time" to the equation ? ie cover it incrementally as it goes higher (so long as your bank is sufficient)

f) if you try e), what is the best way/levels to do that 

g) if i do e and f and still lose, is the risk/possible saving worth the stress, etc etc 

the list is a long one my friend (i reckon i could come up with another 20 points no probs), but only *you* can come to the conclusions that fit your situation ----  

*Dont sit idle* ---- Come up with a plan of attack and follow it through --- try and make it a plan that *minimises* your losses ---- dont wait for your bank to sit at minus 50% and be sitting in hope --- losing 15% of your capital may end up being a blessing, or it may totally p#ss you off when the market does exactly what you expected, but a week later than you planned for (but who can be sure !!)  hindsight may punish you or make you feel relieved, but *hindsight is useless* at the moment !!! ---- your current advantage is your bank it large ---- only risk what is bearable ----- 

my heart goes out to you my young M8 ---- try and stay calm and rational, and do what gives you the best % of recovering *in the long term* --- hope that helps in some way --- as i say, in no way meant to be advice, just concern --- all the best 



PS Sorry TH --- hadnt seen your post b4 i posted ----- would have waited b4 posting this one otherwise -------    what is that *idiot* on about  !!!!   Just another boofhead ---- will get as much respect as he deserves !!


----------



## James Austin

beamstas said:


> Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point
> 
> Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?






ivant said:


> 120 minis, remember?.. thats $600 a point  Let's say I'm rather stupidly aggressive. I am pretty confident of a move here.. I'll get out if S&P goes above 900 pretty confidently. Something around 920. So about 300-400 points. Yea i know. More than half my account gone. But I feel there is a reason for doing this. I don't normally go in this aggressively. Most I have had before this is 60 contracts.





am i the only one struggling to make sense of this trade??

*disregard for risk managment DOES NOT WORK* in the long run

sure you may make some big winners disregarding risk management, but in the end this habit of disregard ensures *MAXIMUM MARKET ADVERSITY *has the last say.


** ie, stated another way, the actual maths of this style of trading (when repeated) does not favour the trader


----------



## Trembling Hand

Further to my argument with Mr Random know it all.

here's my crappy days efforts on the SPI + My claimed Short + flip at 318 -3120. Not a great day been distracted by outside goings on but still its my day. No :bs: which is more than what I have had from 42S 

Its become a bit of a tradition here to send Joe $500 bucks when you challenge someone and are proven wrong. I am sure that after you have told me that you are the great Local/Inst/Prop that you claim $500 will mean nothing to you.


----------



## Aussiest

Trembling Hand said:


> For some reason I'm having this argument with this Dude via PM. As I have no idea why I've triggered such interest from him I am now posting it here
> 
> What the hell are you talking about. You fool.
> 
> Where have I constantly posted about my success.
> 
> I have openly said that I didn't get a gig at propex 3or more years ago.
> 
> I have also said that the reason i don't try to get another gig at propex is I would have to trade larger than my 3 to 5 lot scalps on the SPI and HSI. which would then require me to change my trading style just to make the same.
> 
> Where the hell did I say ANYWHERE I was a gun. Where have I ever claimed any amount of profitable trading without backing it up with a statement. You are a damn weird Person to come along and bang on about this rubbish. Why don't you just post here in the open and get to your point.
> 
> Cheers




TH is one of the most helpful people here 

To the person that is knocking him, jealousy is a curse!!


----------



## 42S

TH

Nothing whatsoever  to do with your trading  , you  are just a muppet  who likes the sound of your  own voice a little too much .

I  did  not come here at all to challenge you  , what I got was  a load of  ***it.

Happy days


----------



## Trembling Hand

42S said:


> TH
> 
> , you  are just a muppet  who likes the sound of your  own voice a little too much .




Oh I have never claimed that is not the case. :


----------



## prawn_86

**puts mod hat on**

42s, if you are here to be abusive and abrasive you can leave now please. If you do not contribue meaningfully, then please do not contribute.

Further abusive/off-topic/pointless posts will be removed and you will be infracted.

Thanks

Prawn


----------



## CapnBirdseye

42S said:


> TH
> 
> Nothing whatsoever  to do with your trading  , you  are just a muppet  who likes the sound of your  own voice a little too much .
> 
> I  did  not come here at all to challenge you  , what I got was  a load of  ***it.
> 
> Happy days




Enough said


----------



## sammy84

James Austin said:


> am i the only one struggling to make sense of this trade??
> 
> *disregard for risk managment DOES NOT WORK* in the long run




I too have been wondering the same. Everyone here has been calling such a trade brave, but without responsible money management its reckless. 




42S said:


> TH
> 
> Nothing whatsoever  to do with your trading  , you  are just a muppet  who likes the sound of your  own voice a little too much .




Alot of us here has learnt from TH's post, so for us at least it would be good news if he likes the sound of his own voice.


----------



## ivant

Rick_Hunter said:


> Goodluck Ivan, I also hope it all works out for you (and for me! haha), as I admire the way you trade, completely different from the crowd and having strong beliefs in what you do. It takes a lot of courage to step away from the crowd, especially when things continue to go against you.
> 
> 
> On a better note, it seems the SPI futures are waking up a bit, already down about 20-30pts from the 3883 finish at the end of today (where I thought it was ridiculously overbought considering the US futures barely budged all day)
> So even if the US stays flat tonight, I think our market will come back to reality a bit (I hope)
> 
> What I'm really afraid of in a few days time, is the results of the "banking" stress tests. I just can't help feel that this is gonna give Wall Street another reason to rally one more time, and perhaps strongly. The last time Geinther released the new banking plan, even though almost every economist said it was crap, wall st. went up 7%!!




Haha well we shall find out. Those tests probably are not going to be that great. Oh well, we shall see about that one soon. I am actually waiting for those to come through.. Thanks for the kind words man!We are back near the highs again 



MichaelD said:


> My .
> 
> I have no idea what the future holds and am not making any judgements on any specific trades, but if we continue upwards like this, then this is a good example of the major pitfall of mean reversion trading.
> 
> viz - you're right most of the time, and that makes you feel good, but when you're wrong, you're taken to the cleaners and lose months, even years, of hard work.
> 
> It's an interesting contrast to the trend following modus operandi, where you feel bad pretty much all the time as you're constantly in drawdown, with fleeting moments of happiness as you reach equity peaks.




Yea i know, interesting little play on the psychology..



Cartman said:


> "Ive" --- u know my position on your position ----- No advice as such from me, but considering i have been where you are a couple of times  , there are a squillion things you could/ or need to consider ----
> 
> a) what if it continues higher
> b) am i in a position to ride that higher level out
> c) what are my current options b4 it gets to that point
> d) how much am i prepared to risk, and what are the best methods to limit that risk at this point in time
> e) is it possible to turn the trade into an eventual winning trade by adding "time" to the equation ? ie cover it incrementally as it goes higher (so long as your bank is sufficient)
> 
> f) if you try e), what is the best way/levels to do that
> 
> g) if i do e and f and still lose, is the risk/possible saving worth the stress, etc etc
> 
> the list is a long one my friend (i reckon i could come up with another 20 points no probs), but only *you* can come to the conclusions that fit your situation ----
> 
> *Dont sit idle* ---- Come up with a plan of attack and follow it through --- try and make it a plan that *minimises* your losses ---- dont wait for your bank to sit at minus 50% and be sitting in hope --- losing 15% of your capital may end up being a blessing, or it may totally p#ss you off when the market does exactly what you expected, but a week later than you planned for (but who can be sure !!)  hindsight may punish you or make you feel relieved, but *hindsight is useless* at the moment !!! ---- your current advantage is your bank it large ---- only risk what is bearable -----
> 
> my heart goes out to you my young M8 ---- try and stay calm and rational, and do what gives you the best % of recovering *in the long term* --- hope that helps in some way --- as i say, in no way meant to be advice, just concern --- all the best
> 
> 
> 
> PS Sorry TH --- hadnt seen your post b4 i posted ----- would have waited b4 posting this one otherwise -------    what is that *idiot* on about  !!!!   Just another boofhead ---- will get as much respect as he deserves !!




Hey Cartman, thanks for the advice! Much appreciated as always! I am definitely still rational and not angry! A little surprised, without doubt at the reaction today from the markets. Seems a lot like what you mentioned, about the squeeze! I am going to be ok up until 4000-50 but only time will tell how this plays out. I will be worried if S&P breaks 900 and I will be closing out most of my positions at those levels. I do have a plan of attack in my mind, and if this is to be my second losing trade for the financial year, so be it. I went in knowing the risks. Thanks again for those points (read them a few times )




James Austin said:


> am i the only one struggling to make sense of this trade??
> 
> *disregard for risk managment DOES NOT WORK* in the long run
> 
> sure you may make some big winners disregarding risk management, but in the end this habit of disregard ensures *MAXIMUM MARKET ADVERSITY *has the last say.
> 
> 
> ** ie, stated another way, the actual maths of this style of trading (when repeated) does not favour the trader




Who told you I risk this much on every trade? And furthermore, that I do not have any risk management in place?


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> For some reason I'm having this argument with this Dude via PM. As I have no idea why I've triggered such interest from him I am now posting it here
> 
> What the hell are you talking about. You fool.
> 
> Where have I constantly posted about my success.
> 
> I have openly said that I didn't get a gig at propex 3or more years ago.
> 
> I have also said that the reason i don't try to get another gig at propex is I would have to trade larger than my 3 to 5 lot scalps on the SPI and HSI. which would then require me to change my trading style just to make the same.
> 
> Where the hell did I say ANYWHERE I was a gun. Where have I ever claimed any amount of profitable trading without backing it up with a statement. You are a damn weird Person to come along and bang on about this rubbish. Why don't you just post here in the open and get to your point.
> 
> Cheers




Haha, well thats an interesting little debate you got yourself into TH. I find that funny though, who really cares. It is like measuring genitals on the golf course. Ultimately, if you are a good trader and making money, that is awesome! It is bloody frustrating when you get called for lying though  I know too well from two weeks ago  Hahaha. TH you are a great help to the site, and your posts are greatly respected. I actually took the time to read that post you sent me and it was a load of fun  You had a great few weeks of trading! This is of course forgetting the other few years of awesome results, but you know....


----------



## sammy84

James Austin said:


> Who told you I risk this much on every trade? And furthermore, that I do not have any risk management in place?




Not to pick a fight, but your last trade has shown you don't have risk management. It had no position sizing and was against the trend. So you were trading a reversal with a large proportion of your account. Adequate risk management in trading the reversal would've been to pyramid your position on the way down. 

Even if you only do these types of trades rarely, they are still enough to cause huge drawdowns and ruin the smoothness of your equity curve.

My  anyway


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> Those tests probably are not going to be that great.




MQG bounced back off todays lows (which it opened at) after all the 'bad news'. Nothing would surprise me...


----------



## skyQuake

Ivant, if worse comes to worse would you scale in/out of that trade? How do u plan to manage it?

Cheers


----------



## James Austin

ivant said:


> 120 minis, remember?.. thats $600 a point  Let's say I'm rather stupidly aggressive. I am pretty confident of a move here.. I'll get out if S&P goes above 900 pretty confidently. Something around 920. So about 300-400 points. Yea i know. More than half my account gone. But I feel there is a reason for doing this. I don't normally go in this aggressively. Most I have had before this is 60 contracts.






Trembling Hand said:


> Where is ya average entry price sitting?






ivant said:


> 3785ish. A good 100 points needed lol.






ivant said:


> Who told you . . . . that I do not have any risk management in place?




you may have risk management but it is of poor quality; at least in relation to this trade




ivant said:


> Who told you I risk this much on every trade?





I never said you did, i simply stated what happens if you do so repeatedly.

But chances are, if you are willing to risk 50% of your TC on this trade, you are likely to do it again, because this trade demonstrates you havent fully grasped the gravity of risk management nor the concept of maximum market adversity.


this trade may go your way ivant, *but that isnt the point at all*


----------



## beamstas

Ivan mate
100 pts = 60 grand

That's a friggin lot of money

Lets hope we don't see 4400

Cause if we do your account will be gone!

Where do you have your stops?

I would have bailed long ago!!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CapnBirdseye said:


> Enough said




if you judge asf members trading ability by the amount of posts they have made then you're the biggest fool on this forum.


----------



## ivant

In reply to all that, here is what I have to say:

When the probability is skewed in your favour, when your trading system is screaming at you that its time to go in big, which it did, that is what I will do on every occasion. The situation is that I am willing to risk half my account to make back a good 50-70% on the trade (if end up selling out at around the 3300 mark). Risk vs reward... If you are willing to lose 100-200k to make double that amount, that works well. Whether you agree or disagree, it is not relevant.. 

Some examples of similar situations in the last 2 years:

Shorting on the: 
10th of October 2007 - 20 Jan 2008
15th of May 2008 - 14th of July 2008
and now

Going long on the:
14th of July (which proved to be a false break, yet a rebound nevertheless)
18th of November 2008 
5th of March 2009

These are situations when it was the right thing to go bigger than normal. In hindsight, all of those breaks were great money making opportunities. Times when I was doubling my account a lot (although I was risking more on those occasions, as a percentage wise move).

More towards the question of how I will manage the risk, this will be more relating to how the US acts. I will be waiting for the S&P to test and successfully break the 200 day MA of 900. I will go in short as soon as the market breaks that line again. We will fall without doubt, the only thing I am worried about now is when.


----------



## MichaelD

Time for another .

Ivant,

I wonder just how much of an adverse effect this discussion has on your psychology - there's an awful lot of criticism of position sizing, risk control, and direction going on here. I wonder whether it will influence the course of this trade adversely.

(I have my own views on these matters but it doesn't seem particularly useful at this point to contribute them since I don't trade the instrument in question.)


----------



## CapnBirdseye

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you judge asf members trading ability by the amount of posts they have made then you're the biggest fool on this forum.




Wasn't a comment on ability or otherwise, merely regarding his tone.


----------



## nomore4s

James Austin said:


> you may have risk management but it is of poor quality; at least in relation to this trade




I tend to agree with James here. Risking this much of your account and the way you have scaled in as the trade has gone against you is dangerous imo.

While I hope you get out of this relatively unscathed, my account is all long atm so I'm obviously betting the market will continue to rally in the short term. But I will lose less then 5% of my account if I'm wrong but I also won't make the type of money you will make if I'm right.

As I posted earlier in the other thread - imo you are more of a gambler than a trader in terms of your risk & trade management. Some of the other posters have commented on how you must have big kahoonas etc, etc but that doesn't make you a good trader in my eyes just a risk taker.

While I acknowledge the success you have already had in doing what you have done it isn't much good if you give it all back on a couple of poor trades. Betting the way you do is fine with a couple of grand on the line but is totally different with a couple of hundred grand on the line imo.

This is not a go at you personally I'm only commenting on your trading style.


----------



## nunthewiser

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you judge asf members trading ability by the amount of posts they have made then you're the biggest fool on this forum.




TOTALLY AGREE


----------



## nunthewiser

beamstas said:


> Ivan mate
> 100 pts = 60 grand
> 
> That's a friggin lot of money
> 
> I would have bailed long ago!!




and to some its merely chicken feed

and to some they may play the easing in game but still have a stoploss level they will stick to


----------



## ivant

Hey Michael D  Thanks for the comment. I have a good way of blocking the noise out, but yes, its probably a good idea to discuss my risk management after the trade is over lol. So, to finish of the circular conversation about risk management for now, let us wait for a few weeks/months or however long this will take.


----------



## skc

beamstas said:


> Ivan mate
> 100 pts = 60 grand
> 
> That's a friggin lot of money
> 
> Lets hope we don't see 4400
> 
> Cause if we do your account will be gone!
> 
> Where do you have your stops?
> 
> I would have bailed long ago!!




160 pts = ~100K  

Now that's getting close to my monthly salary


----------



## beamstas

skc said:


> 160 pts = ~100K
> 
> Now that's getting close to my monthly salary






Ha ha


----------



## beamstas

Ouch
3940
Can we break 4000?


----------



## Aussiest

Honestly... i don't know. It's quite quiet today.

I wonder if people will sell off today? I dunno... I happened to get rid of a long position i'd held for quite some time. Relieved to see it go.


----------



## prawn_86

skc said:


> 160 pts = ~100K
> 
> Now that's getting close to my monthly salary




I want your job


----------



## Ardyne

surely people are gonna start locking in some profits.


----------



## Sean K

nunthewiser said:


> TOTALLY AGREE



I'm feeling pretty stupid.  lol


----------



## Aussiest

Ardyne said:


> surely people are gonna start locking in some profits.





That's what i did. If it goes up, i'll short it.


----------



## nunthewiser

kennas said:


> I'm feeling pretty stupid.  lol





hahahahahahah


lol it wasnt actually directed at anyone really .... was merely pointing out that a number of posts dont mean squat when it comes to good/bad advice


----------



## Largesse

golly gosh you SPI boys have had it easy over the last 48 hours.... 

make that cash!


----------



## ivant

Largesse said:


> golly gosh you SPI boys have had it easy over the last 48 hours....
> 
> make that cash!




Not if you are short Crude and SPI pretty heavily lol...

On a side thought, seems like we reentered the upwards channel, and now the resistance sits at 3775s or so. Some things are looking pretty positive out there for my dying self, we hit a lot of overbought levels again. And we pretty much had to get a sell-of today a little. If it goes up now, 3990ish is the next target. 

Two treasury auctions tonight in the US, hopefully that creates a little nervousness..


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> hopefully that creates a little nervousness..




Do you think people will get a little nervous? The bad news lately hasn't been making a dent. People are in that delusional state where they think they can't go wrong.

My guess is it'll trade a little up and down for a while before another leg down. Don't ask me for charts, this is purely what i think in terms of human psychology. I might be wrong, hopefully i am.


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Do you think people will get a little nervous? The bad news lately hasn't been making a dent. People are in that delusional state where they think they can't go wrong.
> 
> My guess is it'll trade a little up and down for a while before another leg down. Don't ask me for charts, this is purely what i think in terms of human psychology. I might be wrong, hopefully i am.




Yes, but that always happens at tops. Institutions pay for optimistic coverage, and for media to put positive spins on news. The reality is that there was some crazy volatility yesterday, and chances are it was created by the last of the selling of institutions. I could be wrong. If they are indeed all out, the news will change very quickly. Take a look at an example. Hypothetical.

CNBC reports job loss of 640,000 for this month...

Are these good news or bad news?

Now they can make this sounds like its the best news ever. Compared to last month, we are seeing a great improvement, because the number is some 40,000 better. Of course, most investors at this stage don't look at the trends, and as a result, these news have just become positive. Add that to the expected number made by several institutional traders, of 900,000, and we have a lot to cheer. Well, sure enough, that is great, and we think that it is all "priced into the cookie" and it is a lagging indicator, but that is still not a good number. Anyhow thats an obvious one. When surrounded by the hype created in the media, like people dancing on Koshie's show going "end of recession" and whatever bollocks they come up with, mum and dad investors buy into this and get killed a few weeks later. 

That is without doubt what is happening now. The economy IS deteriorating and is not showing any signs of recovery, no matter what people say. No country has started raising interest rates, and there is the problem of debt coming around. Times are not as great as they are pictured. However, Carmen Wong Ulrich or whatever her name is, on her CNBC blog, said that she is getting letters of retirees putting all their money into shares at the moment. ALL. Who is on the other side of those trades? You know what I mean?

However, for me, the problem is when will the market break the resistance levels. If it keeps steaming up much more, I could be forced out of the trade. But I can guarantee everyone, that we will see S&P at 750 before the economy truly recovers.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> Yes, but that always happens at tops. Institutions pay for optimistic coverage, and for media to put positive spins on news. The reality is that there was some crazy volatility yesterday, and chances are it was created by the last of the selling of institutions. I could be wrong. If they are indeed all out, the news will change very quickly. Take a look at an example. Hypothetical.
> 
> CNBC reports job loss of 640,000 for this month...
> 
> Are these good news or bad news?
> 
> Now they can make this sounds like its the best news ever. Compared to last month, we are seeing a great improvement, because the number is some 40,000 better. Of course, most investors at this stage don't look at the trends, and as a result, these news have just become positive. Add that to the expected number made by several institutional traders, of 900,000, and we have a lot to cheer. Well, sure enough, that is great, and we think that it is all "priced into the cookie" and it is a lagging indicator, but that is still not a good number. Anyhow thats an obvious one. When surrounded by the hype created in the media, like people dancing on Koshie's show going "end of recession" and whatever bollocks they come up with, mum and dad investors buy into this and get killed a few weeks later.
> 
> That is without doubt what is happening now. The economy IS deteriorating and is not showing any signs of recovery, no matter what people say. No country has started raising interest rates, and there is the problem of debt coming around. Times are not as great as they are pictured. However, Carmen Wong Ulrich or whatever her name is, on her CNBC blog, said that she is getting letters of retirees putting all their money into shares at the moment. ALL. Who is on the other side of those trades? You know what I mean?
> 
> However, for me, the problem is when will the market break the resistance levels. If it keeps steaming up much more, I could be forced out of the trade. But I can guarantee everyone, that we will see S&P at 750 before the economy truly recovers.




It's funny. Just on the Channel 9 news, they reported that interest rates aren't going down and that this is a 'good sign'. But, then the next report was that unemployment may rise to 7+%! It was one of those _moments_ 

Not really sure what you mean by the "*S&P will reach 750* before the economy truely recovers"?? Do you mean you think it will reach 750, as in less than 1000? Are you talking about the share price index?


----------



## nikemi

ivant said:


> Yes, but that always happens at tops. Institutions pay for optimistic coverage, and for media to put positive spins on news. The reality is that there was some crazy volatility yesterday, and chances are it was created by the last of the selling of institutions. I could be wrong. If they are indeed all out, the news will change very quickly. Take a look at an example. Hypothetical.
> 
> CNBC reports job loss of 640,000 for this month...
> 
> Are these good news or bad news?
> 
> Now they can make this sounds like its the best news ever. Compared to last month, we are seeing a great improvement, because the number is some 40,000 better. Of course, most investors at this stage don't look at the trends, and as a result, these news have just become positive. Add that to the expected number made by several institutional traders, of 900,000, and we have a lot to cheer. Well, sure enough, that is great, and we think that it is all "priced into the cookie" and it is a lagging indicator, but that is still not a good number. Anyhow thats an obvious one. When surrounded by the hype created in the media, like people dancing on Koshie's show going "end of recession" and whatever bollocks they come up with, mum and dad investors buy into this and get killed a few weeks later.
> 
> That is without doubt what is happening now. The economy IS deteriorating and is not showing any signs of recovery, no matter what people say. No country has started raising interest rates, and there is the problem of debt coming around. Times are not as great as they are pictured. However, Carmen Wong Ulrich or whatever her name is, on her CNBC blog, said that she is getting letters of retirees putting all their money into shares at the moment. ALL. Who is on the other side of those trades? You know what I mean?
> 
> However, for me, the problem is when will the market break the resistance levels. If it keeps steaming up much more, I could be forced out of the trade. But I can guarantee everyone, that we will see S&P at 750 before the economy truly recovers.





I agree with you 100%, and i am in the same boat. I know it's a top and i am short but the thing is will i be able to ride my current losses out till it reverses, or will it force me out before it does.... wait and see


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> It's funny. Just on the Channel 9 news, they reported that interest rates aren't going down and that this is a 'good sign'. But, then the next report was that unemployment may rise to 7+%! It was one of those _moments_
> 
> Not really sure what you mean by the "*S&P will reach 750* before the economy truely recovers"?? Do you mean you think it will reach 750, as in less than 1000? Are you talking about the share price index?




I mean S&P 500. The US index. Currently at 900. What's that, about 15% lower from these levels? Something like that... 

That is a funny back-to-back economic segment


----------



## MRC & Co

42S said:


> Please    enlighten  me  on who you think the boyz ?? are ? institutions  or Locals?




Gotta be instos, too big.

Who are you?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> Who are you?




I have a feeling it's Trader Paul


----------



## Bobby

>Apocalypto< said:


> I have a feeling it's Trader Paul




 hate to bet against that ..


----------



## ivant

Bobby said:


> hate to bet against that ..




Who is Trader Paul and why do you guys think its him?


----------



## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> Who is Trader Paul and why do you guys think its him?




trader paul is a living legend


----------



## nunthewiser

in his lunchbox


----------



## MRC & Co

I just find this interesting and want to know who 42S is, because I (and maybe one other here) am/are the 'propex boys' who said TH was a gun, and to me, he is.  It's just odd to see what I have said in person to someone bought up on a public forum to the person via a PM.  

TH makes no disguise of who he is, so who are you?

Ivan, Trader Paul is the astro guy, this guy sounds like he trades out of the MF office (and is probably a gun himself), so it's highly unlikely that it's Trader Paul.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ivant said:


> Who is Trader Paul and why do you guys think its him?




he is the only man I know that manufactures crystal balls.


----------



## ivant

Interesting community you guys have here . Obviously we have some pretty big and experienced players amongst us


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ivant said:


> Interesting community you guys have here . Obviously we have some pretty big and experienced players amongst us




we do ivant, but I am not one of them!


----------



## ivant

>Apocalypto< said:


> we do ivant, but I am not one of them!




Based on my research into trader paul, he definitely isn't one!! I have seen some great posts from you on the other hand. that was a heck of a read though, the astro stuff.


----------



## Bobby

Largesse said:


> golly gosh you SPI boys have had it easy over the last 48 hours....
> 
> make that cash!




Well it looks easy but that only lasts till  you try it with your own money


----------



## jersey10

will it bounce off 3882 again?  massive numbers there around 10.10


----------



## Aussiest

Bobby said:


> Well it looks easy but that only lasts till  you try it with your own money




Ha! Yeah, the perfect experience. You will never know until you try it with your own cash :


----------



## jersey10

jersey10 said:


> will it bounce off 3882 again?  massive numbers there around 10.10




this is a good fight


----------



## jersey10

same level wins again


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> same level wins again




We will probably get a tight range day. Perfect for an explosion come Friday


----------



## cutz

Trembling Hand said:


> We will probably get a tight range day. Perfect for an explosion come Friday




What's your gut feeling TH, up or down.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cutz said:


> What's your gut feeling TH, up or down.




See below.


----------



## cutz

I see, i'd better steepen up my wings.


----------



## jersey10

here we go again


----------



## jersey10

mental note for next time.  If those big lots don't hold at a support level immediately flip the order and ride the trend down.


----------



## Trembling Hand

so much for my ideas hey!


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> so much for my ideas hey!




just means it will need to explode even bigger to the upside tomorrow


----------



## ivant

You are all still thinking its a bull market rally? The volume is getting killed in the US on a daily basis, with the exception of Monday. I think the most likely support is at 3700


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> You are all still thinking its a bull market rally? The volume is getting killed in the US on a daily basis, with the exception of Monday. I think the most likely support is at 3700




Are you going to get out at 3700?


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Are you going to get out at 3700?




Most likely  Depends on how much panic will be created if and when it hits there. Seems to me there is a wedge, with some support at 3700, at least that explains the previous few pullbacks. After I'd wait for the indicators to get back from oversold conditions, which at 3700 they will be.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> so much for my ideas hey!




Na, I think your idea was right, there didn't look any way the selling was going to crack through those levels.

Then out comes Bank of America news that it will need an extra 25 billion in equity, which came out at the same time as our retail sales which drove us up for a few minutes (better than expected, no wonder after Rudds handouts).  S&P also had some volume to get through on the bid, but once it did, and the HSI opened, it was crash time!  This seemed to give SPI the momentum it needed to break through, but those buyers did a heck of a job!    Looks like weakness is being bought into at the moment.  

That's how I saw it, not that I managed to actually trade it well!


----------



## Mr J

I just don't see balance.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Na, I think your idea was right, there didn't look any way the selling was going to crack through those levels.




Yeah the Bears didn't really give it the shake that they could of. Plenty of willing bids,

Come on Bears thats all you got???


----------



## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> I just don't see balance.




What do you mean?

ROLFMAO at the vid, yes, that's the way it's been for the bears lately, other than profit taking, everyone seems afraid to actually give it a real push!


----------



## ivant

Hahaha that video was hilarious!!! Hahahahaha. Brilliant find! Notice the name of the bear... 

We will find out if the bears have anything by the end of the week. I think the stress test and the unemployment numbers are the ones that have people on the edge of their seats. We will see what happens tonight and on Thursday.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> Most likely  Depends on how much panic will be created if and when it hits there. Seems to me there is a wedge, with some support at 3700, at least that explains the previous few pullbacks. After I'd wait for the indicators to get back from oversold conditions, which at 3700 they will be.




So, you're changing your strategy? I thought you were adamant that the SPI would retrace back to 3300?


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> So, you're changing your strategy? I thought you were adamant that the SPI would retrace back to 3300?




Not yet! I am still rather confident that the market will retrace to 3300 and a 750-80 equivalent on the S&P. The question is how serious will a move be to the downside when it starts, and when it starts. If the market chooses to retest the highs, then I can get a better fill


----------



## Aussiest

MRC & Co said:


> Then out comes Bank of America news that it will need an extra 25 billion in equity, which came out at the same time as our retail sales which drove us up for a few minutes (better than expected, no wonder after Rudds handouts).




If you don't mind me asking, how did you find out the news s*o fast*? I sometimes browse Bloomberg, but i didn't think it reported so fast


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> If you don't mind me asking, how did you find out the news s*o fast*? I sometimes browse Bloomberg, but i didn't think it reported so fast




You can get several sources. Reuters have a live feed with a lot of futures brokers. ransquawk is good at night. There are some other live feed providers out there  Mirc has some good tools


----------



## ivant

Oh + Trade the news squawk is good too


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, basically any live news-feed, you have to pay for it I believe, but Bloomberg, Reuters or Squawk all provide it.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> You can get several sources. Reuters have a live feed with a lot of futures brokers. ransquawk is good at night. There are some other live feed providers out there  Mirc has some good tools




Thanks Ivan!

With a 'live feed', does that mean i have to subscribe?  Or, does that mean it comes through really fast?

I'm not sure what live feed means? 

(slightly embarrassed about that, lol). I'll have a look at them tonight.


----------



## Aussiest

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, basically any live news-feed, you have to pay for it I believe, but Bloomberg, Reuters or Squawk all provide it.




Ah, cool... Thanks Mrc. Will have a look tonight


----------



## Trembling Hand

But you don't really need it.

I got a live DWJ & Reuters up but didn't even bother looking at what it was when every thing started to go nuts. just a waste of time, 

.......................just trade.


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> But you don't really need it.
> 
> I got a live DWJ & Reuters up but didn't even bother looking at what it was when every thing started to go nuts. just a waste of time,
> 
> .......................just trade.




Yes! Unless you are a trade off the news type trader, in which case it probably is a different story. But if you are a technical trader, its good to just be in the loop on things. You need the news to paint the overall picture, and try leave as many blanks out as possible  I am obviously not very art nouveau when it comes to analysing the economy. 

P.S. a live feed is just a bar with all the latest news coming out on the spot


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> Yes! Unless you are a trade off the news type trader, in which case it probably is a different story. But if you are a technical trader, its good to just be in the loop on things. You need the news to paint the overall picture, and try leave as many blanks out as possible  I am obviously not very art nouveau when it comes to analysing the economy.
> 
> P.S. a live feed is just a bar with all the latest news coming out on the spot




Oh cool, thanks m8   

Sounds good


----------



## AzzaB80

Speaking of news US non-farm unemployment figues out. 150k below forcast, US futures just sky rocketed


----------



## ivant

AzzaB80 said:


> Speaking of news US non-farm unemployment figues out. 150k below forcast, US futures just sky rocketed




That was the ADP report. its never accurate. It always used to be worse than reality, then a few months ago they changed their system and now its always better than reality. the number will be on friday. But futures did go up a lot. Interesting to see how they behave in an hour...


----------



## skc

Aussiest said:


> I'm not sure what live feed means?
> 
> (slightly embarrassed about that, lol). I'll have a look at them tonight.




Live feed is when you go to Australia zoo and they feed live chickens to the crocs...

It's not easy trading the news. I did some tests (not very comprehensive...) some time ago on price reactions after news. Usually the prices will take off in the first few minutes, but a lot of that will be retraced soon. Then the market find its head and go towards the "correct" direction. Some times the first few ticks may actually get it wrong. 

You used to be able to place guaranteed stops with IG markets with much tighter stops. They were good limited-risk bets for news times. But I think the stops are much wider now so probably not much use.


----------



## cutz

Trembling Hand said:


> I got a live DWJ & Reuters up




Hi Guys,

Sorry i mentioned this on the IB thread but i thought i'll also place it here. 

Question for you guys that have Reuters via IB, it seems the only way to configure it on TWS is by adding a column in the order management window or adding a news page? , i did this last night but it was also streaming all this other stuff from yahoo, the street ect. which cluttered things up, i tried turning the other stuff off but no success.

How do you guys have Reuters set up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Cutz that feed from IB is rubbish. well it was the last time I looked at it. Will only give you a RSS feed to stuff you have in your TWS.

not much good for general trading news.


----------



## cutz

Thanks TH, it wasn't quite what i expected, you're obviously subcribed to a dedicated website being fed with live news?


----------



## Trembling Hand

cutz said:


> Thanks TH, it wasn't quite what i expected, you're obviously subcribed to a dedicated website being fed with live news?




Yeah trying out a new data provider. Bit expensive, especially if you are too busy trading to look at it :


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah trying out a new data provider. Bit expensive, especially if you are too busy trading to look at it :




And....who might that be, if I may politely ask? I have been looking for a dynamic news provider for a while. Although Marketwatch does a good job of free US news.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> And....who might that be, if I may politely ask? I have been looking for a dynamic news provider for a while. Although Marketwatch does a good job of free US news.




I was trying out a friends Reuters Workstation Its WAY to expensive. And  in any case I'm not sure if its available as a retail product.

DWJ I get from CMC Live.


----------



## James Austin

Trembling Hand said:


> I was trying out a friends Reuters Workstation Its WAY to expensive. And  in any case I'm not sure if its available as a retail product.
> 
> DWJ I get from CMC Live.





TH

is that CMC feed satisfactory re speed and market-moving coverage?


----------



## Trembling Hand

yeah its pretty good. But the thing is with news I hardly ever look at it even when I know somethings coming. I'm just interested in how the markets move so I'm watching the market not the news number.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ivan you still short this? :whip


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Ivan you still short this? :whip




Lets hope we don't see 4285, else ivans 300k will be gone


----------



## ivant

Yea I am. That emoticon of the whipping is a walk in the park as to how crude is treating me. I am already looking at a good time to cut crude, and the index itself is whipping me painfully too. Sort of hoping for a good close in the next 30 minutes, and hopefully some quiet time until stress test is out. After that I will be p!$$ing my pants... lol. anything above 955 on the S&P and I am out without doubt


----------



## nunthewiser

at least your honest ivant, beats a lot of these i sold at the top bought at the bottom tales we here so often

onya i hope it turns for your sake


----------



## acouch

ivant said:


> Yea I am. That emoticon of the whipping is a walk in the park as to how crude is treating me. I am already looking at a good time to cut crude, and the index itself is whipping me painfully too. Sort of hoping for a good close in the next 30 minutes, and hopefully some quiet time until stress test is out. After that I will be p!$$ing my pants... lol. anything above 955 on the S&P and I am out without doubt




i only hope that newbies do'nt follow your trading plan;
good luck
ac


----------



## ivant

acouch said:


> i only hope that newbies do'nt follow your trading plan;
> good luck
> ac




Haha me too! I never laid out my trading plan to begin with, but in this instance, would be so, so painful...


----------



## sails

I  got Go Markets up and running yesterday, but amazed at how much Go lags on the spi quotes compared to IB.  Anyone else noticed this?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> I  got Go Markets up and running yesterday, but amazed at how much Go lags on the spi quotes compared to IB.  Anyone else noticed this?




They have had some problems with their new servers


----------



## Trembling Hand

Another day for the Bulls.

Ivan you still hanging in. Down 200 points at $600 a point


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Another day for the Bulls.
> 
> Ivan you still hanging in. Down 200 points at $600 a point




Double top or cup 'n' handle? 

Hopefully it's a double top for you, Ivan.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> Yea I am. That emoticon of the whipping is a walk in the park as to how crude is treating me.




How many you short ya poor bast@rd


----------



## beamstas

Ivan

I really hope this doesnt come to the point where everyone says 

"I told you so"


----------



## Edwood

sails said:


> I  got Go Markets up and running yesterday, but amazed at how much Go lags on the spi quotes compared to IB.  Anyone else noticed this?



I emailed them last night sails about 5sec delays with FTSE pricing - they say they have a known problem with their feed into MT4 & hope to have a solution soon


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> Yea I am. That emoticon of the whipping is a walk in the park as to how crude is treating me. I am already looking at a good time to cut crude, and the index itself is whipping me painfully too. Sort of hoping for a good close in the next 30 minutes, and hopefully some quiet time until stress test is out. After that I will be p!$$ing my pants... lol. anything above 955 on the S&P and I am out without doubt




Can you get out soon and re-enter above 4000 if it goes there? Actually will be interesting to see how stress tests go tonight.


----------



## ivant

Ha! Yea Brad, I kind of hope so too. Although, I took on the risk, and quite possible have paid the price. Unless the Stress Test news will confirm the entire "buy the rumour,  sell the news" scenario. 

I am short 9 full barrels in crude at $10 USD per point. I had a load of really unfortunate events in that part of the trade. Several times I had the chance to sell it out.. Oh such a nightmare there..

Anyway, we shall see if I am still alive tomorrow.


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Can you get out soon and re-enter above 4000 if it goes there? Actually will be interesting to see how stress tests go tonight.




That assumes we will get there man. I am still not 100% sure that is the case.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> That assumes we will get there man. I am still not 100% sure that is the case.




Hmm, would you consider setting an exit price and sticking to that 

The SPI has gone down a little thank goodness, so i hope it all turns out for your sake .


----------



## sails

Edwood said:


> I emailed them last night sails about 5sec delays with FTSE pricing - they say they have a known problem with their feed into MT4 & hope to have a solution soon




Thx Edwood.  Their spreads seem to be about right - although a bit hard to tell when they're not in sync.  Will be interesting to see if they can get if fixed!


----------



## nikemi

ivant said:


> That assumes we will get there man. I am still not 100% sure that is the case.




Hm, i cannot help but find similarities: when we were going down everyone was convinced we'll get to 2800  and we didn't, now when we are going up every one is convinced we'll pass 4000 for that we'll have to wait and see. That's one thing you gotta love about the market it is unpredictably predictable in the way that everytime everyone is convinced it will do something it doesn't.


----------



## Largesse

i'm sorry to hear you are stuck in a poorly timed trade but i hope we keep going north.


----------



## Real1ty

nikemi said:


> Hm, i cannot help but find similarities: when we were going down *everyone* was *convinced* we'll get to 2800  and we didn't, now when we are going up *every one* is *convinced* we'll pass 4000




Not true at all.

Most had us going to 3200, with some also accepting the possibility of 2800 or worse while others were just as convinced we would rebound quickly, as we had decoupled .

Who is the "*every one*" that is "*convinced*" that we will pass 4000? (Feel free to quote "*every one*")

There are many possibilities from where are now, as there always are.


----------



## nikemi

Real1ty said:


> Not true at all.
> 
> Most had us going to 3200, with some also accepting the possibility of 2800 or worse while others were just as convinced we would rebound quickly, as we had decoupled .
> 
> Who is the "*every one*" that is "*convinced*" that we will pass 4000? (Feel free to quote "*every one*")
> 
> There are many possibilities from where are now, as there always are.




For starters about 80% of the participants in this forum (for me that is a majority), then moving onto the analysts and as far as the worst is over statatements are concerned the list is even longer including Murdoch, Bernanke, Geithner, KRud etc....


----------



## ivant

Guppy predicted that we would go to 2500 in a flash! That was funny, I was stuck long. The next day we broke 3100 and went up ever since.


----------



## Real1ty

nikemi said:


> For starters about 80% of the participants in this forum (for me that is a majority), then moving onto the analysts and as far as the worst is over statatements are concerned the list is even longer including Murdoch, Bernanke, Geithner, KRud etc....




You didn't state "the worst is over", you said EVERYONE is CONVINCED we will break 4000.

I agree with your theory, in principle, of the contrarian view you were trying to get across but your sweeping generalisation of the posters on here wasn't correct nor was it even close.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Seeish!! Oil on a run as well as ES .... 



so who thinks that the Stress test will be,

1. a surprise?

2. matter?


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> Seeish!! Oil on a run as well as ES ....
> 
> 
> 
> so who thinks that the Stress test will be,
> 
> 1. a surprise?
> 
> 2. matter?




the crude is painful.. didnt quite expect it!! i doubt there will be a surprise, most of it is out. i am hoping some selling on the news though... what do you think TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> the crude is painful.. didnt quite expect it!! i doubt there will be a surprise, most of it is out. i am hoping some selling on the news though... what do you think TH?




No idea Ivan. But you are right most of it is out.

If the oil price is a proxy for the economy we look to be going the opposite way most are predicting for the world


----------



## nikemi

Real1ty said:


> Not true at all.
> 
> Most had us going to 3200, with some also accepting the possibility of 2800 or worse while others were just as convinced we would rebound quickly, as we had decoupled .
> 
> Who is the "*every one*" that is "*convinced*" that we will pass 4000? (Feel free to quote "*every one*")
> 
> There are many possibilities from where are now, as there always are.




My post was in response to ivant's response to a post that asked whether he couldn't sell his position now and reenter at 4000?


----------



## MRC & Co

What time (AEST) is the stress-test news out?


----------



## sammy84

I'm looking for it too. CNN just mentioned that it is expected some time today, possibly after markets close.

Feels like I'm waiting to find out who won the grand final...


----------



## MS+Tradesim

MRC & Co said:


> What time (AEST) is the stress-test news out?




I believe it's 5pm US eastern so that would be 7am AEST.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aB3.jimFDoS8&refer=us

And I doubt there'll be any big 'surprises'. Seems most of it has already leaked.


----------



## alwaysLearning

Trembling Hand said:


> No idea Ivan. But you are right most of it is out.
> 
> If the oil price is a proxy for the economy we look to be going the opposite way most are predicting for the world




Oil is an interesting chart.

Note that I made a typo in the text of that chart. I said that the AUD/USD is rallying at 79cents when in fact we are around about 74-75 cent range.


----------



## Largesse

didnt show it much respect on the way down in Oct 08


----------



## MRC & Co

Thanks Tradeism, I was hoping I would be able to watch it before we went to bed, but I agree, most is probably leaked and no big surprises, causing a stronger Europe at the moment.

Thanks for the oil chart AL, line probably wasn't respected in October 08 because of the momentum behind it, but it could well be now, a good sign for you hopefully Ivan!


----------



## skc

How correlated is oil vs US market vs SPI? 

My immediate thoughts are that oil and US market (and hence SPI) are correlated, with oil potentially lagging the market.

So, is it wise to heavily short both? (Forget about the question if it is wise to heavily short any of them at present...)


----------



## Aussiest

MS+Tradesim said:


> And I doubt there'll be any big 'surprises'.




I don't think there will be any surprises. The only surprise will be if anybody really stands up and takes notice. I think everybody will just trade as usual, ignoring the news.


----------



## Aussiest

skc said:


> My immediate thoughts are that oil and US market (and hence SPI) are correlated, with oil potentially lagging the market.
> 
> So, is it wise to heavily short both? (Forget about the question if it is wise to heavily short any of them at present...)




My thoughts exactly. But, what's done is done. You have to remember the rhetoric on oil is that supply outweighed demand a week and a half ago, and most news on oil was bearish . It's like most things to do with the market, it's easy to say in hindsight, but try picking the right direction sometimes.


----------



## ivant

Dave Bahoric on the situation:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1116512769&play=1

I love this guy. interesting views on the stress tests. Is this all really a political game? Time shall tell..


----------



## ivant

Yes they are currently correlated pretty closely. Crude is overvalued, and it is still a different market. They aren't always correlated, this is just a coincidence. I'd still be shorting the heck out of the market if i had the chance. what i am disappointed in is my timing... again. One of my many big down's in trading. Both oil and equity will go down. Watch that happen. I just hope I still have money to see that happen.


----------



## Aussiest

I hope you can too. You can still make money taking out your cash now and re-investing when a better time suits. I'm not going to enter shorts until 4000 and 4100. 4100 will be my highest. I already have one open at 3855, but i'm not too worried about it. Yet!


----------



## nomore4s

Aussiest said:


> I'm not going to enter shorts until 4000 and 4100. 4100 will be my highest




Why lock yourself in like that?

Wouldn't it be more prudent to see how the price and patterns are playing out at those levels before just shorting it for the sake of shorting because it's at 4100?


----------



## Aussiest

nomore4s said:


> Why lock yourself in like that?
> 
> Wouldn't it be more prudent to see how the price and patterns are playing out at those levels before just shorting it for the sake of shorting because it's at 4100?




More food for thought as usual... thanks nomore


----------



## Cartman

nunthewiser said:


> *at least your honest ivant*, beats a lot of these i sold at the top bought at the bottom tales we here so often
> 
> onya i hope it turns for your sake




Agree Nun --- refreshing quality in a young fella 



ivant said:


> Yes they are currently correlated pretty closely. Crude is overvalued, and it is still a different market. They aren't always correlated, this is just a coincidence. I'd still be shorting the heck out of the market if i had the chance. *what i am disappointed in is my timing... again*. One of my many big down's in trading. Both oil and equity will go down. Watch that happen. I just hope I still have money to see that happen.




Little bit of pre-stress dumping/profit taking in the US  --- hope it follows thru for ya IVE

(re the timing thingy)----  i always find it odd how many people will harp on about how the "entry" is not that important  etc etc ----   pretty much number one priority from where i sit ! 

hope the dow dumps a coupla hundred or more for ya  2nite --- your probably missing way too much sleep atm


----------



## Trembling Hand

Uncle Festivus said:


> And....who might that be, if I may politely ask? I have been looking for a dynamic news provider for a while. Although Marketwatch does a good job of free US news.




Unc, Trade The News is a good one for general market announcement & squawk. After I stop leaching off everyone's accounts I think I will settle for it. $175 US a month.

Got a free two week trial to have a look at.


----------



## Bobby

Cartman said:


> (re the timing thingy)----  i always find it odd how many people will harp on about how the "entry" is not that important  etc etc ----   pretty much number one priority from where i sit !




Yes its critical for    me also  
 Regarding live  SPI data delivery speed , instant means ? or depends what vendor used


----------



## beamstas

Cartman said:


> (re the timing thingy)----  i always find it odd how many people will harp on about how the "entry" is not that important  etc etc ----   pretty much number one priority from where i sit !




Entry is not important because no-one can accuratly predict the market
No one

Refer to my sig


----------



## Largesse

wouldn't carefully selecting your entry points be considered good risk management beamstas?


----------



## beamstas

Largesse said:


> wouldn't carefully selecting your entry points be considered good risk management beamstas?




I see Entry as Seperate to risk management.
If you were to put them under the same "umbrella", then yes, it would be.

Automatically new traders (newbies) concentrate heavily on the entry and exit, instead of concentrating on where the money is made (risk management)

Cheers
Brad


----------



## skc

Profit = Entry - exit. Both very important base on my equation


----------



## MS+Tradesim

skc said:


> Profit = Entry - exit. Both very important base on my equation




Yep. Good entries add significantly to the bottom line.


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> Entry is not important because no-one can accuratly predict the market
> No one
> 
> Refer to my sig




Brad you have to be kidding?? 

skc formula is spot on.


----------



## sammy84

My 

Entries provide you with an edge that enables you to make money. Money management ensures that you are able to derive a positive expectancy from your edge.


----------



## beamstas

You enter the SPI short at 4000

Is it going to go up or down

Simple question

That is an entry

Now tell me if you are going to make money

Doesn't matter where you enter the market

It's going to go up or its going to go down
Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)


----------



## Largesse

I see where you are coming from Beamstas.
Risk management (position sizing etc) is extremely important, but ultimately a waste of time if you are consistently selecting unprofitable entry/exit points.

just my 

and i am one of the noobs you refer to


----------



## MS+Tradesim

beamstas said:


> You enter the SPI short at 4000
> 
> Is it going to go up or down
> 
> Simple question




This assumes that entries give no edge in themselves and that over time they are no better than 50/50. That's common wisdom but it's wrong.


----------



## Largesse

beamstas said:


> You enter the SPI short at 4000
> 
> Is it going to go up or down
> 
> Simple question
> 
> That is an entry
> 
> Now tell me if you are going to make money
> 
> Doesn't matter where you enter the market
> 
> It's going to go up or its going to go down
> Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)




correct, but if you exit at 3999, then your risk management has left you with a loss just as much as your entry has.


----------



## beamstas

Largesse said:


> I see where you are coming from Beamstas.
> Risk management (position sizing etc) is extremely important, but ultimately a waste of time if you are consistently selecting unprofitable entry/exit points.




What is a profitable entry point?

(I know what you guys are saying - as i don't enter the market on a coin toss or random signal, i understand what you are saying but im trying to make a point here  )


----------



## Mr J

skc said:


> Profit = Entry - exit. Both very important base on my equation




My most important philosophy in sportsbetting was the emphasis on getting a good price. 



			
				beamstas said:
			
		

> Automatically new traders (newbies) concentrate heavily on the entry and exit, instead of concentrating on where the money is made (risk management)




Risk management is determined by entry and exit. They don't fall under the same "umbrella", they are one and the same. Money is made by capturing price, done through entry and exit. These same actions also manage risk. Profit and risk management are both achieved though entry and exit.


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> You enter the SPI short at 4000
> 
> Is it going to go up or down
> 
> Simple question
> 
> That is an entry
> 
> Now tell me if you are going to make money
> 
> Doesn't matter where you enter the market
> 
> It's going to go up or its going to go down
> Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)




Utter rubbish. Ask Ivan about entries. His short may work out in the time he figures it will ie down to 3300 or whatever. But he may also spew up his position if we go much higher at a big loss. 

That is a bad entry to a good trade.

Just an example not saying that will happen


----------



## beamstas

Everyone is taking my point out of context!


----------



## Rick_Hunter

IMO, good entries minimises your losses when you are wrong and hence can keep you in the game for longer (btw i've been stupidly shorting the index since around 3700 levels, burnt again and again, but most of my entries have been at what i believe are extremely overbought levels, so somehow my losses have been managable)

e.g. If you believe the index at or above 4000 is overpriced and due for a correction targeting around 3900. When the index hits say 4010, you start to short because you think it's a false breakout. You then get proven wrong coz a few days later the index 'closed' at 4040, which means the band has probably moved up a level now (say 4000-4100). So the loss may be around 30ish points

however if you tried to chase it down and it reverses on you (happened a lot in this rally), then the losses are much greater.


Btw, any other 'bears' out there that's really getting their energy drained from this rally? This rally has been so fast and so strong with barely any corrections. Maybe I should give it a rest, but then it defeats the whole purpose of shorting it in the first place. If i believe 3700 was a good shorting point, then 3930 should be awesome, however, fighting the market for the last month or so is really wanna make me start giving in


----------



## MS+Tradesim

beamstas said:


> Everyone is taking my point out of context!




Then what do you mean by "no one can accurately predict the market"?


----------



## Bobby

Does anyone know the live speed of their SPI data from the actual ?
 know of one vendor who claimed down to half a second & under a full second when chaotic ..


----------



## beamstas

MS+Tradesim said:


> Then what do you mean by "no one can accurately predict the market"?




What will the market do Monday? 

I'll elaborate more on what I've said later. Im at work now so can't go into detail. Everyone is being fast to jump on their keyboard and discredit me but I guess I didn't word what I was saying well enough. 

Im not saying entries are not important

If you don't enter the market you can't ever make money.


----------



## Mr J

beamstas said:


> You enter the SPI short at 4000
> 
> Is it going to go up or down
> 
> Simple question
> 
> That is an entry
> 
> Now tell me if you are going to make money
> 
> Doesn't matter where you enter the market
> 
> It's going to go up or its going to go down
> Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)




The entry doesn't dictate whether or not the trade will be successful, but the entry and exit do determine your result.


----------



## beamstas

Mr J said:


> The entry doesn't dictate whether or not the trade will be successful, but the entry and exit do determine your result.




Ahhhh


----------



## MS+Tradesim

beamstas said:


> What will the market do Monday?




I have no idea what the market will do Monday. But I have a statistically significant edge in picking what an individual share might do.

Ps. I'm not going into that, but putting effort into finding good entries is just as important as picking good exits.


----------



## beamstas

MS+Tradesim said:


> I have no idea what the market will do Monday. But I have a statistically signficant edge in picking what an individual share might do.




Well you are a gifted trader  (i am not being sarcastic)

I bet everyone in this thread who is profitable enters differently. Therefore it is not the entry that is paramount in who is profitable and who is not. It's just a way to get into the market. What makes the profitable traders in this thread profitable is because they have positive expectancy (ie they let their winners be bigger than their losers)

IMO trade management has a bigger impact on expectancy than entries do 

Entries are important. But they do not dictate what the market will do (ie: the market will go up when a 21d ma crosses a 7d ma or whatever). I know MS+T, TH and stuff know this.. im talking on a basic level. You guys obviously have an edge and know how entries and exits work

Hope you can get my point


----------



## MS+Tradesim

beamstas said:


> IMO trade management has a bigger impact on expectancy than entries do




No one is denying that. But the standard trading books and wisdom downplay the way in which good entries *add* to your bottom line. 

Tell me...which option is preferable:

1) Enter $1.50 - exit $1.70
2) Enter $1.45 - exit $1.70



> But they do not dictate what the market will do (ie: the market will go up when a 21d ma crosses a 7d ma or whatever).




I agree. No-one is saying that an entry *causes* anything.



> Hope you can get my point




I do. But if you spend some time working on entries you'll discover extra profits.



> Well you are a gifted trader  (i am not being sarcastic)




I know you're not being sarcastic. But I'm not gifted trader. I just figured out that the standard wisdom of downplaying the importance of entries was an urban myth. I then spent considerable time looking for an edge on that end of the trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyway back to the SPI.

Where are all the traders?? No volume today 

Is this the pause before the almighty move?? Some VSA specialist wanna give their opinion on low volume day near breakout levels.


----------



## beamstas

MS+Tradesim said:


> No one is denying that. But the standard trading books and wisdom downplay the way in which good entries *add* to your bottom line.
> 
> Tell me...which option is preferable:
> 
> 1) Enter $1.50 - exit $1.70
> 2) Enter $1.45 - exit $1.70
> 
> 
> 
> I agree. No-one is saying that an entry *causes* anything.
> 
> 
> 
> I do. But if you spend some time working on entries you'll discover extra profits.




Take a look at my thread
I do spent time working on entries
I am trading EOD, I am sure there is a whole new world of entries intra-day, that i really want to get into and trade the SPI intra-day.



I too shorted the SPI at 3685. But i was out because i used proper trade management. 




> 1) Enter $1.50 - exit $1.70
> 2) Enter $1.45 - exit $1.70




Ahh im not stupid! $1.45 

But what if it was
Enter at $1.50 stop loss $1.40
Enter at $1.45 stop loss $1.00

First trade you have made 2R
Second trade you have made 0.55R

*Over the long term trade 1 will be better (Risk management)*

For someone like you, risk management will be natural.
But for newbies (not largesse), they might spend all their time on entries and none on management. 
This is the point i am making 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyway back to the SPI.
> 
> Where are all the traders?? No volume today
> 
> Is this the pause before the almighty move?? Some VSA specialist wanna give their opinion on low volume day near breakout levels.




Are we up or down and what is the spread like? (Im at work)

An up day with a narrow spread on low volume means no demand. Basically professional money have no desire to buy at a higher level than what is being offered.


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> Are we up or down and what is the spread like? (Im at work)
> 
> An up day with a narrow spread on low volume means no demand. Basically professional money have no desire to buy at a higher level than what is being offered.




Ah hahaha

Why not professional shorts have no desire to short at these levels. Why is VSA biased to wards pros buying


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Where are all the traders?? No volume today




Non-farms tonight, generally pretty dead the day before as far as I am aware.


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyway back to the SPI.
> 
> Where are all the traders?? No volume today
> 
> Is this the pause before the almighty move?? Some VSA specialist wanna give their opinion on low volume day near breakout levels.




? what


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Non-farms tonight, generally pretty dead the day before as far as I am aware.




good "demand" in stocks though today.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> good "demand" in stocks though today.




There was high vol on stocks today?


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Ah hahaha
> 
> Why not professional shorts have no desire to short at these levels. Why is VSA biased to wards pros buying




Don't know!
Im just saying what the TradeGuider manual says! (still havn't seen a chart)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

beamstas said:


> You enter the SPI short at 4000
> 
> Is it going to go up or down
> 
> Simple question
> 
> That is an entry
> 
> Now tell me if you are going to make money
> 
> Doesn't matter where you enter the market
> 
> It's going to go up or its going to go down
> Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)




You have been reading trading in the Zone!

so why in the first place did u enter at 4000? 

you have have an idea on which way the market will move or why would u trade? if u randomly pick a number and put money on it go the the Casio u have a better chance at red/black.

I see what your trying to say... but you need an idea to make a trade, sure no one can say 100% if it's going up or down... but u have to have a idea to make a position. Or else you're guessing with no plan.....

that don't get u far.

also TH posted  this a while back which is a excelent point...

you can have all the risk management in the world, but if you can pick a winner more then you pick losers your sure to fail! makes perfect sense to me..... (his words written by me)

cheers


----------



## beerwm

'risk management' is a prediction about the market itself.

that the 'stock/index/etc' will trend.


----------



## Cartman

sammy84 said:


> *Entries provide you with an edg*e that enables you to make money. Money management ensures that you are able to derive a positive expectancy from your edge.




yep



Largesse said:


> Risk management (position sizing etc) is extremely important, but *ultimately a waste of time if you are consistently selecting unprofitable entry/exit points*.
> i am one of the noobs you refer to




if ur a noob, you are well on track L  



Mr J said:


> My most important philosophy in sportsbetting was the emphasis on *getting a good price*.




good price = good entry 



Trembling Hand said:


> Ask Ivan about entries. His short may work out               That is a bad entry to a good trade.




exactly ! ----- 



beamstas said:


> Everyone is taking my point out of context!




nah, ---  know what u mean Brad  --- yr point is well made and well taken  

---- entries become more important depending on yr trading time frame

scalp = critical
swing = important
EOD = who gives a cr@p --- MM will take care of it !!


----------



## beamstas

>Apocalypto< said:


> You have been reading trading in the Zone!
> 
> so why in the first place did u enter at 4000?
> 
> you have have an idea on which way the market will move or why would u trade? if u randomly pick a number and put money on it go the the Casio u have a better chance at red/black.
> 
> I see what your trying to say... but you need an idea to make a trade, sure no one can say 100% if it's going up or down... but u have to have a idea to make a position. Or else you're guessing with no plan.....
> 
> that don't get u far.
> 
> also TH posted  this a while back which is a excelent point...
> 
> you can have all the risk management in the world, but if you can pick a winner more then you pick losers your sure to fail! makes perfect sense to me..... (his words written by me)
> 
> cheers





"Trading in the zone"

Never read it! Is it a good book (i actually recently posted on another forum for people to reccomend me a book to buy becasue i want to spend some $$). Woudl you reccomend it? 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Mr J

beamstas]IMO trade management has a bigger impact on expectancy than entries do[/QUOTE]

I would include entries as part of trade management said:


> good price = good entry




Exactly, but with trading a good price also means a good exit.


----------



## skc

All very good points guys. Wrong thread!! (Me guilty also  ) Someone should start a thread called "Entry, exit and trade management - which is more important" and bring the discussion there.

Meanwhile the SPI flies back up towards today's R1 - look like making a 5th crack at leaving 3950 behind.

Non-farm will be the key no doubt.

Cartman - what does your crystal ball say about the payroll numbers? Can you predict to the exact number down to the single individual (like you did last time to the SPI high)?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

beamstas said:


> "Trading in the zone"
> 
> Never read it! Is it a good book (i actually recently posted on another forum for people to reccomend me a book to buy becasue i want to spend some $$). Woudl you reccomend it?
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




Hi Brad,

Yeh it's a great book well worth a read.

I have read quite a few times myself.

cheers


----------



## nikemi

MRC & Co said:


> There was high vol on stocks today?




Could be due to increased flow of funds in SMSF etc before the expected tax increase on Tue. Personally know of a few people that did that.


----------



## MRC & Co

nikemi said:


> Could be due to increased flow of funds in SMSF etc before the expected tax increase on Tue. Personally know of a few people that did that.




I don't have the cash chart at home, that's why I was asking if there was high volume on the XJO, as opposed to the small volume on the SPI........

But an interesting comment, I didn't even know of a tax increase on Tuesday in relation to SMSF, a good point.

Also disagree about entires, gather Beamstas read Adaptive Analysis, but I can't say I agree with this part, otherwise even a simple concept such as intraday execution for EOD trading wouldn't be required........

Cheers


----------



## nikemi

MRC & Co said:


> I don't have the cash chart at home, that's why I was asking if there was high volume on the XJO, as opposed to the small volume on the SPI........
> 
> But an interesting comment, I didn't even know of a tax increase on Tuesday in relation to SMSF, a good point.
> 
> Also disagree about entires, gather Beamstas read Adaptive Analysis, but I can't say I agree with this part, otherwise even a simple concept such as intraday execution for EOD trading wouldn't be required........
> 
> Cheers




The tax changes expected are that the 'rich' will only get half the tax  free amount for super contributions that would subsides the budget earmarked for increase in pensioners income. 

that tax change will affect mainly SMSF as most of the people in that category manage their own super.


----------



## MRC & Co

nikemi said:


> The tax changes expected are that the 'rich' will only get half the tax  free amount for super contributions that would subsides the budget earmarked for increase in pensioners income.
> 
> that tax change will affect mainly SMSF as most of the people in that category manage their own super.




Ah, I see, thanks for the info nikemi.

Cheers for that chart below too.


----------



## nikemi

MRC & Co said:


> I don't have the cash chart at home, that's why I was asking if there was high volume on the XJO, as opposed to the small volume on the SPI........
> 
> But an interesting comment, I didn't even know of a tax increase on Tuesday in relation to SMSF, a good point.
> 
> Also disagree about entires, gather Beamstas read Adaptive Analysis, but I can't say I agree with this part, otherwise even a simple concept such as intraday execution for EOD trading wouldn't be required........
> 
> Cheers




XJO today


----------



## Trembling Hand

XAO & XTL (ASX20) volume about avg. SPI vol about half!!


----------



## Aussiest

skc said:


> Meanwhile the SPI flies back up towards today's R1 - look like making a 5th crack at leaving 3950 behind.




When will it end? It's looking pretty bullish, especially on the charts that T/Hand posted. Although, when prices are that much above the moving average, they usually come down / 'correct' at some stage... But, when?!

It's funny. I was just thinking about the crash and the insanity that engulfed it last year, and now this?! Goodness knows...

Thank goodness i'm not heavily invested in this market. I'm waitin' for the crash.

Btw, what are you doing home on a Friday night T/H? :


----------



## Largesse

i see short term pain for our friend Ivant on the horizon...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Aussiest said:


> Btw, what are you doing home on a Friday night T/H? :




Pathetic isn't it


----------



## Mr J

Aussiest said:


> Btw, what are you doing home on a Friday night T/H? :




I haven't even had dinner yet. In my clubbing days, there wasn't much point arriving before 1am.


----------



## Aussiest

Hahah, i'm over my clubbing days too... What time did you used to arrive home? In the old days, i wouldn't get home till monday morning. Enjoy life so much better now


----------



## MRC & Co

Aussiest said:


> . Although, when prices are that much above the moving average, they usually come down / 'correct' at some stage... But, when?!




Na, price can just pause and let the moving average catch up.


----------



## skc

That US payroll data turned out to be a bit of non-event. SPX moved may be 3 points down and now back to where it was before the figures. I am guessing a range bound day on the Dow, but it's a long night so who knows. 



Aussiest said:


> When will it end? It's looking pretty bullish, especially on the charts that T/Hand posted. Although, when prices are that much above the moving average, they usually come down / 'correct' at some stage... But, when?!
> 
> It's funny. I was just thinking about the crash and the insanity that engulfed it last year, and now this?! Goodness knows...
> 
> Thank goodness i'm not heavily invested in this market. I'm waitin' for the crash.




Why do you want it to end? And it's actually terrible that you are not heavily invested at the moment. So many shares are popping all over the place. Just take a look at the potential break out threads and flags and pennant thread. In deed, one of the charts was on the XJO pennant and that popped up too. 

Make hay when the sun shine, rather than hold on to a view that was probably justified over 1 month ago. With good stop losses, your risk reward on individual stock is still OK even for as for as the overall market has come.



Largesse said:


> i see short term pain for our friend Ivant on the horizon...




And which variety of tealeaves do you use to predict this?


----------



## Largesse

skc said:


> And which variety of tealeaves do you use to predict this?




very poor quality ones


----------



## ivant

haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!


----------



## Cartman

ivant said:


> haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!





agree ---- only brave retail traders would be buying atm!


----------



## Rick_Hunter

hmmm, that was some aggressive selling there

10 pts of the S&P in the matter of like 15min, wonder what happened there, usually that only occurs on some major news

failed to break the 929 tonight, at least for now

going to be an interesting night


----------



## alwaysLearning

ivant said:


> haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!




You know, just the feeling for me at the moment is that there isn't much interesting news to report on over the next few weeks. We've had our stress test results and now NFP data etc. 

I'm struggling to think of what else the market can rally on next week and in coming weeks? 

Not that I trade fumdementals but I'm just wondering...

I still don't buy that everything is fine now and get go smashing back up. Nah...we are in a bear market afterall.


----------



## ivant

Yes, of course we are. My last trade when I was long since January, I didn't think the economy is getting better, I thought the markets were oversold. The economy is horrible at the moment. It stinks. The plan with the stress tests is to get money back into them so that everyone goes back to normal. The fundamentals are not fixed. If we rally of 801 1/2 on the S&P (50% retracement),or 750 significantly, I will have my second thoughts about where this will all go, and then it could be a bull market. Time will tell. I just rambled my head out into my blog lol. seems like i am repeating myself haha. But I just feel good that i have survived thus far. I feel good about where this will all go now, and i just get the feeling that the time has come!


----------



## alwaysLearning

ivant said:


> Yes, of course we are. My last trade when I was long since January, I didn't think the economy is getting better, I thought the markets were oversold. The economy is horrible at the moment. It stinks. The plan with the stress tests is to get money back into them so that everyone goes back to normal. The fundamentals are not fixed. If we rally of 801 1/2 on the S&P (50% retracement),or 750 significantly, I will have my second thoughts about where this will all go, and then it could be a bull market. Time will tell. I just rambled my head out into my blog lol. seems like i am repeating myself haha. But I just feel good that i have survived thus far. I feel good about where this will all go now, and i just get the feeling that the time has come!




So if price does something like in the chart below, you might be thinking that we could be approaching bull territory?


----------



## ivant

alwaysLearning said:


> So if price does something like in the chart below, you might be thinking that we could be approaching bull territory?




Yep  If the bounce is strong and convincing enough. I'd look for 750 though!


----------



## sammy84

ivant said:


> haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!




As I speak the S&P is up 2.4%. Its time to admit this is bad trade and get out isn't it? There is a lesson to be learnt by trading a reversal without getting confirmation.


----------



## beamstas

Aussiest said:


> Although, when prices are that much above the moving average, they usually come down / 'correct' at some stage... But, when?!




Sorry to be a pain in the ass again! (in the same thread i might add)

But i see no reason why the price should return to the moving average
The moving average should return to the price!

Remember the price is NOW, the moving average is OLD INFORMATION so it cannot predict anything

We have actually stopped overlapping coming up, meaning our last move has been an inpulse. The most recent previous high was 3851.2 and our most recent low is 3851.9

Im not saying the price is going to keep going up

But i've been bearish since 3700, butim not going to keep fighting the market 

If it's gonna go its gonna go!

CHeers
Brad


----------



## Trembling Hand

One of my trading rules


----------



## MS+Tradesim

ivant said:


> But I just feel good that i have survived thus far. I feel good about where this will all go now, and i just get the feeling that the time has come!




Has it not occurred to you that you could just be wrong and you're going to lose the lot because you're trading your opinion of what the markets *should* do instead of following what the markets *are* doing? 

I'm speaking from experience. I turned a small amount into $1m and lost 90% of it for this very reason. That was some time back and it burnt me badly and that's what it took for me to "get it".

Honestly, if this trade goes your way it's going to be disastrous for you. You will be reinforced into believing you're always right no matter how much short term pain you suffer and eventually you'll meet the trade that breaks you.  



beamstas said:


> But i've been bearish since 3700, butim not going to keep fighting the market




Ditto. Took my losses on the shorts. Moved on. Done well since instead of hanging around wanting to be right and suffering through the open equity drawdown.


----------



## Aussiest

skc said:


> Why do you want it to end? And it's actually terrible that you are not heavily invested at the moment. So many shares are popping all over the place. Just take a look at the potential break out threads and flags and pennant thread. In deed, one of the charts was on the XJO pennant and that popped up too.
> 
> Make hay when the sun shine, rather than hold on to a view that was probably justified over 1 month ago. With good stop losses, your risk reward on individual stock is still OK even for as for as the overall market has come.




I was heavily invested. I got in at the bottom. 

Not sure where to go right now. Make your decisions and i will make mine!

I do agree with what others have said in this forum, that it's better to trade the trend rather than what you think is going to happen.


----------



## skc

Aussiest said:


> I was heavily invested. I got in at the bottom.
> 
> Not sure where to go right now. Make your decisions and i will make mine!






Aussiest said:


> Thank goodness i'm not heavily invested in this market. I'm waitin' for the crash.




Getting slightly conflicting messages here      (Not that it really matters, btw).

We almost reached 4000 last night on the SPI. High of 3989! Everyone buy buy buy!

*secretly fading the crowd and going short*


----------



## alwaysLearning

MS+Tradesim said:


> Has it not occurred to you that you could just be wrong and you're going to lose the lot because you're trading your opinion of what the markets *should* do instead of following what the markets *are* doing?
> 
> I'm speaking from experience. I turned a small amount into $1m and lost 90% of it for this very reason. That was some time back and it burnt me badly and that's what it took for me to "get it".
> 
> Honestly, if this trade goes your way it's going to be disastrous for you. You will be reinforced into believing you're always right no matter how much short term pain you suffer and eventually you'll meet the trade that breaks you.
> 
> 
> 
> Ditto. Took my losses on the shorts. Moved on. Done well since instead of hanging around wanting to be right and suffering through the open equity drawdown.




Can you talk a little about how you turned a small amount into one million dollars? What instrument were you trading? Also, what amount did you start with to build it into a million dollars and how long did it take?

Did you lose 90% off one trade or a series of trades?

What was your psychological approach to the markets when you were getting close to the 1million dollar mark?


----------



## cutz

skc said:


> *secretly fading the crowd and going short*




Are you fading the market intraday or do you hold onto positions on a longer term basis (multi day).


----------



## skc

cutz said:


> Are you fading the market intraday or do you hold onto positions on a longer term basis (multi day).




Sorry mate that was just a joke. I just noted that everyone on this forum was somewhat bearish at 3700 and the market just bolted up, so fading the crowd has potential merits.

I have recently started, however, setting a stop entry short order may be 30-40 points below the market price before I go to bed. I have many long share positions so a bit of hedging just in case the market falls through the roof for whatever reason in my sleep.


----------



## cutz

OK, i gotcha


----------



## MRC & Co

skc said:


> I just noted that everyone on this forum was somewhat bearish at 3700 and the market just bolted up, so fading the crowd has potential merits.




Everyone?  I remember thinking a large number were bullish.  Kennas, nomore, TH a few.  

Personally, I would have cut the position or flipped it when we easily held 3800, but there is no lesson in not waiting for confirmation.  Selling  levels after an extended run is an obvious idea where you don't need confirmation, however, this broke the level with ease, not cutting and selling again at the next level _or_ simply starting off selling only several contracts at the first level and averaging down (exponentially, by selling say double what you sold at the first level, at the second level, assuming you started out small at the first level), _could_ be a lesson.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Well I have recently became a bear! Sold a further 70% of my existing portfolio two days ago and am cashed up. Have yet to take a loss in fact i'm in the green. Will be pissed if it continue's to march upwards but just don't believe it sustainable. Might go another 200 points but really what is moving this market?
This is were I believe allot of newbies such as myself or mom and dad investors are going to get sucked in a shat upon once again because they are afriad of missing out.
I feel great to have a large chunk of cash on the sidelines. I will be looking for a retracement of 15 to 20% before I get excited.
I know most would suggest following the trend but I think we are going to return to some real volatility in the coming months.

Just my 

Best of luck 

G


----------



## MRC & Co

Gordon Gekko said:


> I know most would suggest following the trend but I think we are going to return to some real volatility in the coming months.




I like the sound of that!  It does look to be building that way to me, over the nxt few months.

Friends of mine who are brokers, tell me clients are coming out of the woodworks again, with the good times such a close and vivid memory, just what is required to cause some aftershocks!  But as  you say, I can see us potentially putting on more points first, a close above 4000, a consolidation and a march towards 4400s _could _still be in store first.


----------



## Aussiest

Gordon Gekko said:


> Well I have recently became a bear! Sold a further 70% of my existing portfolio two days ago and am cashed up. Have yet to take a loss in fact i'm in the green. Will be pissed if it continue's to march upwards but just don't believe it sustainable. Might go another 200 points but really what is moving this market?
> This is were I believe allot of newbies such as myself or mom and dad investors are going to get sucked in a shat upon once again because they are afriad of missing out.
> I feel great to have a large chunk of cash on the sidelines. I will be looking for a retracement of 15 to 20% before I get excited.
> I know most would suggest following the trend but I think we are going to return to some real volatility in the coming months.
> 
> Just my
> 
> Best of luck
> 
> G




I am cashed up also and i don't even feel bad about it. And i don't even feel bad about watching WPL rally up after i sold it! (okay, i do a bit, but lessons for next time).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gordon Gekko said:


> Well I have recently became a bear! Sold a further 70% of my existing portfolio two days ago and am cashed up. Have yet to take a loss in fact i'm in the green. Will be pissed if it continue's to march upwards but just don't believe it sustainable.






Aussiest said:


> I am cashed up also and i don't even feel bad about it. And i don't even feel bad about watching WPL rally up after i sold it! (okay, i do a bit, but lessons for next time).




I wonder if you will be happy in cash if we get to 4500.

Not saying thats gonna happen but thats one of the drivers of this run. No one believes it. Everyone has sold thinking that yesterday is tomorrow.

Meanwhile some are just swinging like they do at every opportunity.

Oh and we haven't even had a short covering rally................. yet.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Forgot to ask for some thoughts on the following:

I hear allot of people saying there is some "big institutional buying recently"
Could it be that its very close to the end of the financial year and that they need to put the money somewhere or else there clients who are really starting to notice the fee's and wondering if they should fire there FA'a useless ass.
I mean if you get your year end statement and realize you have been placed in cash for safety, couldn't or wouldn't you just do it yourself?

Institutions could be buying to dress up there figures but will most likely dump them again on July1st.

Any thoughts,


G


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Trembling Hand said:


> I wonder if you will be happy in cash if we get to 4500.
> 
> Not saying thats gonna happen but thats one of the drivers of this run. No one believes it. Everyone has sold thinking that yesterday is tomorrow.
> 
> Meanwhile some are just swinging like they do at every opportunity.
> 
> Oh and we haven't even had a short covering rally................. yet.






Yes I will be pissed but I'll still be sleeping on a very large pile pf money with my naked beatiful wife!!


----------



## nunthewiser

Gordon Gekko said:


> Yes I will be pissed but I'll still be sleeping on a very large pile pf money with my naked beatiful wife!!




sorry m8 but i think this post is in the wrong thread please move to photograph thread immediately


----------



## Aussiest

Trembling Hand said:


> I wonder if you will be happy in cash if we get to 4500.




I don't think we'll get to 4500, but if we do... so be it . It's a nice feeling taking some time out to learn a bit more about the markets.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

And with the recent changes to margin lending where is the average jo going to get the free money that drove the market up levels in late 2007?
I need to see some real consoladation (months and months and months) as well as real improving economic conditions before I feel we will be ready for a new bull market. 

The trick will to buy in at or near the bottom.

Best

G


----------



## MS+Tradesim

alwaysLearning said:


> What instrument were you trading? Also, what amount did you start with to build it into a million dollars and how long did it take?




Small cap shares. Used a fundamental investment approach, no stop losses coz I was right. Wasn't going to sell till each share reached its projected target price based on the projects, timelines and potential cash flows. I 'invested' $50k over about 3 years.



> Did you lose 90% off one trade or a series of trades?




3 different companies. I had built large buy-and-hold (read: beg and pray)  positions in each over time. 



> What was your psychological approach to the markets when you were getting close to the 1million dollar mark?




I was right, the market was rewarding me. And I still knew I was right all the way to the bottom of each of those rides. But it doesn't matter if you think you're right. It only matters if enough other people also think the same idea is right.

Since then I've learnt to trade. I've learnt about position sizing and stop losses and taking what's on offer instead of sitting there stewing in falling equity while I thought the market was wrong and that eventually it would vindicate me. It never did.


----------



## MRC & Co

nunthewiser said:


> sorry m8 but i think this post is in the wrong thread please move to photograph thread immediately




ROLFMAO!


----------



## nomore4s

Trembling Hand said:


> Everyone has sold thinking that yesterday is tomorrow.




lol, I might have to steal that one TH.

I also don't understand everyone being so keen to sell out and go to cash, I'm happy to just run trailing stops now and let the market tell me when this rally is over.

I'm yet to see any selling into strength but am still seeing buying into weakness.



Gordon Gekko said:


> Yes I will be pissed but I'll still be sleeping on a very large pile pf money with my naked beatiful wife!!




That's okay but when this rally does end I'll be on an even larger pile of money with someone elses beatiful naked wife:.


----------



## Trembling Hand

nomore4s said:


> That's okay but when this rally does end I'll be on an even larger pile of money with someone elses beatiful naked wife:.




Hehehe.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gordon Gekko said:


> And with the recent changes to margin lending where is the average jo going to get the free money that drove the market up levels in late 2007?
> I need to see some real consoladation (months and months and months) as well as real improving economic conditions before I feel we will be ready for a new bull market.






Who ever said this was a bull market?

Who ever said that what avg joe does makes a diff to the next couple hundred points? Frankly the reason I've been so bullish is cuz avg joe hasn't. As soon as they are happy, I'm fliipin.


----------



## beamstas

No idea why everyone is moving to cash
You are acting like you know what the market is going to do!
But you don't!


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> No idea why everyone is moving to cash
> You are acting like you know what the market is going to do!
> But you don't!




Funny brad. Two weeks ago you said something to the effect that TA "works" to MichaelD.

now ya saying? nothing "works" just swing?


----------



## alwaysLearning

MS+Tradesim said:


> Small cap shares. Used a fundamental investment approach, no stop losses coz I was right. Wasn't going to sell till each share reached its projected target price based on the projects, timelines and potential cash flows. I 'invested' $50k over about 3 years.
> 
> 
> 
> 3 different companies. I had built large buy-and-hold (read: beg and pray)  positions in each over time.
> 
> 
> 
> I was right, the market was rewarding me. And I still knew I was right all the way to the bottom of each of those rides. But it doesn't matter if you think you're right. It only matters if enough other people also think the same idea is right.
> 
> Since then I've learnt to trade. I've learnt about position sizing and stop losses and taking what's on offer instead of sitting there stewing in falling equity while I thought the market was wrong and that eventually it would vindicate me. It never did.




Very interesting and insightful. Thanks for the response


----------



## Gordon Gekko

Trembling Hand said:


> Who ever said this was a bull market?
> 
> Who ever said that what avg joe does makes a diff to the next couple hundred points? Frankly the reason I've been so bullish is cuz avg joe hasn't. As soon as they are happy, I'm fliipin.




Well I guess what i was trying to say is a couple of years ago (06,07) it seemed like we were moving a thousand points every couple of months or so. People taking out money against there houses and then also gearing into a portfolio. I think that people will be a little bit more conservative going forward, so I can't see a rally move up this quick without a pull back

 It will most likely move higher from here sure based on shat, but then the reality will set in and it will move lower and then most likely sideways. 

And I would disagree TH I think this market is being largly moved on fear from average investors scared of missing the bottom. But what do I know!!

Hope we all make some money on this forum at least!!!

Best of luck

G


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Funny brad. Two weeks ago you said something to the effect that TA "works" to MichaelD.
> 
> now ya saying? nothing "works" just swing?




Nah i actually trade fundamentals  (just kidding)


(I really have to start wording my sentances correctly.. hard to get a point across over the internet becasue i often type something and don't think that someone else has to interpret my ramblings)

Feel free to ignore me 

I guess what im saying is (without leaving half of my statement out leaving a "loaded" statement as i quite often do)

T/A Works, for me.
It gives me a right point, a wrong point, it makes me comfortable in the trade. When talking about support/resistance or whatever i was talking about, it does work (in my opinion). I believe support and resistance to be valid technical analysis indicators that do help me to determine whether i want to buy or stand aside. There are many others that can help me stack the deck.

But when the price is approaching the support and resistance, what's to say it's going to smash through it, or simarly to bounce off it and re-test at a later date. No-one *knows.*

It's hard to explain what goes through my head without contradicting myself

One day i'll get it into words. I get the feeling im wearing off a little thin on you T/H, my apologies. 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Edwood

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh and we haven't even had a short covering rally................. yet.




lol - yeah TH the best moves happen when the margin calls kick in


----------



## skyQuake

Edwood said:


> I emailed them last night sails about 5sec delays with FTSE pricing - they say they have a known problem with their feed into MT4 & hope to have a solution soon




Whoa whoa whoa are those prices tradable though : D ?



beamstas said:


> What will the market do Monday?
> 
> If you don't enter the market you can't ever make money.




Oh Oh Oh pick me pick me!

We'll gap up, fade at least half of it, rally and stall thru lunch, then fade arvo till Nikkei opens and fade post cash close!

Now whats the prize : D ?


----------



## beamstas

skyQuake said:


> Oh Oh Oh pick me pick me!
> 
> We'll gap up, fade at least half of it, rally and stall thru lunch, then fade arvo till Nikkei opens and fade post cash close!
> 
> Now whats the prize : D ?




Well... nothing yet


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> We'll gap up, fade at least half of it, rally and stall thru lunch, then fade arvo till Nikkei opens and fade post cash close!
> 
> Now whats the prize : D ?




ha ha ha, how did you know we will gap up?


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Frankly the reason I've been so bullish is cuz avg joe hasn't. As soon as they are happy, I'm fliipin.




That is what I have in mind as well. Anyone know of a good avg joe indicator (apart from this forum)?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> That is what I have in mind as well. Anyone know of a good avg joe indicator (apart from this forum)?




Yep got a ripper for you.

When no one gives a **** about the SPI or daytrading. When all the posts are going into the stock threads rather than here.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep got a ripper for you.
> 
> When no one gives a **** about the SPI or daytrading. When all the posts are going into the stock threads rather than here.




Yes, and particularly when stock threads become fan clubs. 

The other indicator is when CMC, IG and those guys stop advertising and running special promotions. When avg joe proactively open accounts with them.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ivans definitely got a friend at 3952.

Mr C was that your 350 lot sell?


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> Ivans definitely got a friend at 3952.
> 
> Mr C was that your 350 lot sell?




Haha or I am just a billionaire and hiding it


----------



## Average Joe

skc said:


> When avg joe proactively open accounts with them.




Should I open an account with IG, then?


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Ivans definitely got a friend at 3952.
> 
> Mr C was that your 350 lot sell?




ha ha ha, there was another one there on Thursday, where the 150 lot was today (and that other 350 was there also), so you could get some big size infront with relative safety!  Very nice!  Was hoping we would get back up there today for more cash giveaways!

There is a HUGE seller up there (perhaps he loaded the auction with sells to bring us below the level at open?), so it's really the area we need to either gap over, or blast through to run higher.  If I was Ivan, either would see me closing out my longs, personally.  Just an idea.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> ha ha ha, there was another one there on Thursday, where the 150 lot was today (and that other 350 was there also), so you could get some big size infront with relative safety!  Very nice!  Was hoping we would get back up there today for more cash giveaways!
> 
> There is a HUGE seller up there (perhaps he loaded the auction with sells to bring us below the level at open?), so it's really the area we need to either gap over, or blast through to run higher.  If I was Ivan, either would see me closing out my longs, personally.  Just an idea.




Remember down at 3200 the first time we approached it there was some similar action. But this time in reverse.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome. That is a false break sometime just to get all the punters in long then we roll over.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Remember down at 3200 the first time we approached it there was some similar action. But this time in reverse.
> 
> Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outcome. That is a false break sometime just to get all the punters in long then we roll over.




Yeh, think that was 3300 on the day when BNB went down (if I remember correctly).  

But you never know, could well be right, would also make a bounce off 4000 likely!

Times look like they could get bright again for a while, for us intraday bunch!


----------



## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> ha ha ha, there was another one there on Thursday, where the 150 lot was today (and that other 350 was there also), so you could get some big size infront with relative safety!  Very nice!  Was hoping we would get back up there today for more cash giveaways!
> 
> There is a HUGE seller up there (perhaps he loaded the auction with sells to bring us below the level at open?), so it's really the area we need to either gap over, or blast through to run higher.  If I was Ivan, either would see me closing out my longs, personally.  Just an idea.




Do you mean shorts? This is some extreme movement tonight. HSI is under 17000 after closing around 18000. What is with the activity? Everything is lower and there really seems to be a lot of selling going on. FTSE is pushing lower too.


----------



## nunthewiser

is all i got to say


----------



## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> is all i got to say




Your BHP short is happy at the moment. We sold off my parents' entire SMSF today, with the exclusion of fosters, because it seems to have a negative correlation against the market. This move doesn't seem to be a joke. I haven't seen such an active market in a while. Scalpers are having a ball. I am very interested to see some confirmation from the US tonight!


----------



## ivant

Oh and this is what I was talking about stocks being above 50 day MA.

One is the Weekly View and the other is a daily view. You make the call as to how overbought we are.


----------



## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> Your BHP short is happy at the moment. We sold off my parents' entire SMSF today, with the exclusion of fosters, because it seems to have a negative correlation against the market. This move doesn't seem to be a joke. I haven't seen such an active market in a while. Scalpers are having a ball. I am very interested to see some confirmation from the US tonight!





will be coming soon in my not so great as others opinion .....

hope ya didnt follow anyones advice in locking in them losses at the top of this rally and followed ya own nose 

hey i could be wrong but trhis brewing up like one of those perfect storm moments and we going to get some teary eyed traders shortly


----------



## ivant

nunthewiser said:


> will be coming soon in my not so great as others opinion .....
> 
> hope ya didnt follow anyones advice in locking in them losses at the top of this rally and followed ya own nose
> 
> hey i could be wrong but trhis brewing up like one of those perfect storm moments and we going to get some teary eyed traders shortly




Let's hope so. I still have not cut my shorts, although I came into today thinking I will do that. The movement in the morning to me was very convincing. AUD/USD was unusually active at 6am and as soon as the US and UK futures opened, they went nuts. Very active for that time in the morning. So I was sitting waiting, and from 10 to 5 Melbourne time, things got even more active. Guppy comes out on CNBC and says HSI will hit 20k in no time, people go crazy and short everything they can. HSI hits 17k from 18k when they closed. Although I seem to be doing the opposite to anything he says, which begs the question, why ever do I even bother listening to him. Anyhow, very interesting to see what will happen tonight in the US, but so far, this is a very surprising start. I have reduced my losses at the moment by 60k today so far. Not that I expect a SL move down...


----------



## Rick_Hunter

markets definitely really weird again today

US rallied 2.4% to close on Friday, you'd expect at least a flat - moderately good day, instead we have this pretty big selloff, perhaps world/asia is leading other the US market again?

My take is either the US plummets a good 2-3% (currently futures showing otherwise), or world markets will rally back up if US holds things steady, very interested to see what the US markets do tonight


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Let's hope so. I still have not cut my shorts, the US, but so far, this is a very surprising start. I have reduced my losses at the moment by 60k today so far. Not that I expect a SL move down...




Ivan I have grabbed some longs close to tonights bottom , almost hope I'm wrong for your sake


----------



## beamstas

skyQuake said:


> We'll gap up, fade at least half of it, rally and stall thru lunch, then fade arvo till Nikkei opens and fade post cash close!





We had a tiny gap up 1/1
We rallied a small bit then stalled at around 10:30 (early lunch?) 1/2 /1
We stopped swan diving at 12:00  ???
We pushed up rest of day 0/1 
And then closed on a down -move  1/1

So that gives you 2.5 out of 4


----------



## ivant

beamstas said:


> We had a tiny gap up 1/1
> We rallied a small bit then stalled at around 10:30 (early lunch?) 1/2 /1
> We stopped swan diving at 12:00  ???
> We pushed up rest of day 0/1
> And then closed on a down -move  1/1
> 
> So that gives you 2.5 out of 4




Wouldn't this be a gap down? The SPI opened lower than it closed on Friday night...

Bobby, weren't you committed to the short side? Will be interesting how US goes tonight. I am still favouring a continued fall, but who knows? Regardless of the outcome of this set of trades, I don't think I'll be playing the long side for quite some time.


----------



## MRC & Co

Ivan, a gap is formed when the morning at 9:50am, opens above yesterdays high (a gap up) or below yesterdays low (a gap down).  That is, above or below the high or low set between 9:50am and 4:30pm.

You've got a bit more breathing room again at the moment!


----------



## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> Ivan, a gap is formed when the morning at 9:50am, opens above yesterdays high (a gap up) or below yesterdays low (a gap down).  That is, above or below the high or low set between 9:50am and 4:30pm.
> 
> You've got a bit more breathing room again at the moment!




Ah as in you calculate the day session? Because if you look at the night session, and the continuous chart, then essentially we opened some 20 points lower than we closed on the Friday night. Anyhow, technicalities. 

Definitely some breathing space  haha. Mostly happy with the way Crude is moving. Could theoretically be setting up for a move back towards the 5350 to 5050 levels. If it breaks 5050 then we are looking straight at 4800 and then maybe a retest of the lows, which i think is out of the question at the moment. An hour until open on the big board. lets see how they go. A lot depends on them


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Bobby, weren't you committed to the short side? Will be interesting how US goes tonight. I am still favouring a continued fall, but who knows? Regardless of the outcome of this set of trades, I don't think I'll be playing the long side for quite some time.




Ivan I never commit completely  Had to jump ship on those longs when it broke through 3870 .
Just gone long again at 3868 .
 I'm not sure what will happen  ???


----------



## skc

ivant said:


> Wouldn't this be a gap down? The SPI opened lower than it closed on Friday night...
> 
> Bobby, weren't you committed to the short side? Will be interesting how US goes tonight. I am still favouring a continued fall, but who knows? Regardless of the outcome of this set of trades, I don't think I'll be playing the long side for quite some time.




Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.

Why not just short their futures contract. May be 1 point extra spread, but none of the other kafufus.


----------



## ivant

skc said:


> Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.
> 
> Why not just short their futures contract. May be 1 point extra spread, but none of the other kafufus.




Hey skc! Yea I know about the divs! So painful. The interest they pay is nowhere near enough. I am hoping to close these positions out by end of this week at the low 3700s, or closer to 3720, and then wait for some confirmation. Thanks for the tip on the banks! I actually completely forgot about that. Once I am out of this trade I will be funding an IB account and then trading through them anyhow. In relation to that, for swing trading, is it worth trading the forwards with IG or should I trade it with IB as well? The fixed spread is nice during the day, but then the hidden costs are a pain in the a$$. 

Once again, thanks so much for the bank divs tip!  

Bobby, I am a little scared of playing the upside at the moment. The probabilities are definitely not suggesting a move more than another 200-300 points, and the downside could potentially be more than 1000 points from these levels. Although, I get the feeling our hold time is rather different.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.
> 
> Why not just short their futures contract. May be 1 point extra spread, but none of the other kafufus.




Because IG prices it in and adjusts accordingly. I was trying something similar and hedging with futs, no good. 

Fwiw, IG does its div stuff at 4:00 Exact. A 'Gap' thats visible on the cash charts, but not on the futs.

Cheers


----------



## Bobby

ivant said:


> Bobby, I am a little scared of playing the upside at the moment. The probabilities are definitely not suggesting a move more than another 200-300 points, and the downside could potentially be more than 1000 points from these levels. Although, I get the feeling our hold time is rather different.




Ivan I understand your reasoning , if you get this one right you will be know as  *Fearless *

I'm only going to play the directional game for a shorter time span with smaller size.
At the same time will keep doing my old back up strategy of hitting price movement with some control  ~


----------



## GumbyLearner

I see red. Not the Aussie kind..Shiraz brewed in the hills around Adelaide.

More the Split Enz kind.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

skc said:


> Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.




or u receive it if you're long!


----------



## cogs

General opinion,,,,

Has the budget been factored in already?

Personally I think it maybe and are looking long.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cogs said:


> General opinion,,,,
> 
> Has the budget been factored in already?
> 
> Personally I think it maybe and are looking long.




Do you think its gonna matter at all?


----------



## Awesomandy

I would think the budget has been factored in. We all know it's coming tonight, and we all know that it's not going to be pretty. The only thing to watch out for now is surprises. If, for example, the deficit is twice of what is expected, that may have an impact on the market. Otherwise, it's life as usual.


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> Do you think its gonna matter at all?




stronger *forever* eh !! lol ---  u trying to ramp up some cheap shorts TH 

ps no guarantee of either price or quality cause the fabric often stretches out of shape ---- currently out of stock


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sunshine and happiness shining all over the futs at the moment. oil on a run.

:evilburn:


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> Sunshine and happiness shining all over the futs at the moment. oil on a run.
> 
> :evilburn:





 --- hot oil should never be touched !! -------- but my shorts are still out of stock  ($39.40)


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Sunshine and happiness shining all over the futs at the moment. oil on a run.
> 
> :evilburn:




Yeh, DAX did the evil open squeeze, looked bearish as hell, then rallied hard once it got every long covered and short excited!    Sly. 

Cartman, I will take some shorts at 39.53 please with a 2 tick stop and flip!


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> Y
> 
> Cartman, I will take some shorts at 39.53 please with a 2 tick stop and flip!





 ----  hi Mirc --- what is your take profit target on that flip


----------



## MRC & Co

Cartman said:


> ----  hi Mirc --- what is your take profit target on that flip




I'll take 1 lot on every level from 39.90 to 40.00 flat please!


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> I'll take 1 lot on every level from 39.90 to 40.00 flat please!





u want 3960 on the way up ?   lol ----


----------



## beamstas

Cartman
I will buy your shorts 
For 5000


----------



## Mr J

All this big picture talk, glad I stick to my intraday trading. Trading the SPY tonight since I missed the last two days of the SPI, although it seems I didn't miss much today.


----------



## ivant

Mr J said:


> All this big picture talk, glad I stick to my intraday trading. Trading the SPY tonight since I missed the last two days of the SPI, although it seems I didn't miss much today.




Lol, but I am sure you still pay attention to the big picture, even if you don't trade it?


----------



## Mr J

ivant said:


> Lol, but I am sure you still pay attention to the big picture, even if you don't trade it?




I always have a longer timeframe chart open, but I don't pay enough attention to it.


----------



## ivant

Mr J said:


> I always have a longer timeframe chart open, but I don't pay enough attention to it.




Lol I mean more analysing what is happening in the world around us. What could and should happen next, etc. Based on news, monetary and fiscal policies.. I am not a fundamental trader, but I enjoy analyzing this stuff


----------



## skyQuake

ivant said:


> Lol I mean more analysing what is happening in the world around us. What could and should happen next, etc. Based on news, monetary and fiscal policies.. I am not a fundamental trader, but I enjoy analyzing this stuff




Be careful ivant, maybe one day you'll become an economist


----------



## Mr J

ivant said:


> Lol I mean more analysing what is happening in the world around us. What could and should happen next, etc. Based on news, monetary and fiscal policies.. I am not a fundamental trader, but I enjoy analyzing this stuff




I read about it, but I don't use it for my trading, at least not consciously.


----------



## Aussiest

You getting ready to get out of your shorts Ivan? What do you reckon? 3650?

Martine


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> You getting ready to get out of your shorts Ivan? What do you reckon? 3650?
> 
> Martine




Going to see what happens when it tests 3750. Long way away so far. A lot can happen between now and US open, and even more post open. Most likely close out at 3750, wait for it to break 3750, re enter and wait until 3680. A break of 3680 will take us to around the 3500, then 3300 then 3100 then free fall. I am not saying it will do that by the way. But I still think a 3300 target is very likely. I'd expect a bit or a rally from 3740-50 though. Time will tell if I am right. If we don't rally from there, or show any support at 3680, that is going to be very very bearish.


----------



## ivant

skyQuake said:


> Be careful ivant, maybe one day you'll become an economist




Haha! I may end up with a minor in Economics in a year. Who knows. Although my enthusiasm alone will not make me an economist. Despite my respect for Keynes, my rejection of one of his theories really hurt my ability to get above 50 in macroeconomics. Further to that, we studied from the textbook written by Bernanke himself. While I think that over the last year he has done ok, there are so many things I would have done differently. I am a believer in free markets. I got my wish when Lehman collapsed. I was shorting then  Haha.


----------



## Mr J

> my rejection of one of his theories really hurt my ability to get above 50 in macroeconomics




Are you saying you'll get poor marks if you don't subscribe to the standard school of thought?


----------



## Rick_Hunter

Great work Ivan

Did you still hold all your shorts up until now? If you did, I am truly amazed at your 'pain' tolerance as the positions were like 200 points against you at one point. And congrats to you for sticking to your beliefs, even when the going got really tough (and when many ppl on this board were telling you to get out or even mocking you), as not many people can do what you did. I can definitely understand how you were able to turn 1.5k to 400k in a yr now. A half decent trading plan added with incredible psychological strength and self belief can do wonders.


As a side note, did you always have this type of psychological strength/emotional toughness, or was it through years of practice trading?


----------



## Cartman

ivant said:


> Going to see what happens when it tests 3750. Long way away so far. A lot can happen between now and US open, and even more post open. Most likely close out at 3750, wait for it to break 3750, re enter and wait until 3680. A break of 3680 will take us to around the 3500, then 3300 then 3100 then free fall. I am not saying it will do that by the way. But I still think a 3300 target is very likely. I'd expect a bit or a rally from 3740-50 though. Time will tell if I am right. If we don't rally from there, or show any support at 3680, that is going to be very very bearish.





welcome back to the "land of the living" Ivan  (cryptonite ballz !!      )

in 20 words or less tell us how you would approach this last trade differently next time !! 

all things being equal, that little scare could be what turns you from a smart ballzy trader to a 'slightly' more conservative "super trader"

cheers young M8  

ps *please* scale in over a wider range next time    lol -----


----------



## ivant

Mr J said:


> Are you saying you'll get poor marks if you don't subscribe to the standard school of thought?




You better believe it! I got a low mark of 74 (considering i work full time in investing) for an investments subject for 2 reasons:

a) For the assignment we were asked to manage a portfolio of $100,000 for 3 months, and I didn't have the minimum 20% in stocks. I ended up making a return on stocks of 40% over 3 months based on the 20 stocks that they wanted you to choose. I had a holding period of about 3 weeks. My teacher said that in these tough conditions (2008) its impossible to make money, and so you need to explain to your clients why you lost money. I DONT WANT TO LOSE MONEY! Might as well not invest at all if you think you will lose money. I understand the whole, fund managers need to have on paper that they were in positions, so that they still have a job, and show they did something. 

b) I am a big opponent of the EMH. Lecturers are proponents. I tried to refrain from writing against it on the exam, and give the facts, however the question was worded in such a way that I had to express my opinion. I don't know how to argue for EMH when I have seen such gains. It is like denying the holocaust. Sure maybe it didn't happen, but that is trying to prove a negative, and that is very difficult. Which is why disproving Bishop Berkeley's theories on existance was always so hard, because you are trying to prove a negative. Saying that EMH does take place, you are saying practically that you cannot out earn the market as you are part of it. That is saying that no one loses money in the market either. 

So you do need to keep the theories. There are circumstances when teachers are open-minded, for example, my ex-girlfriend was doing Arts at Monash too, and she mostly studied the middle east, religions, wars etc. She was saying there was a Jewish lecturer and a Muslim tutor who were friends, and who taught the subject well. The lecturer was a little bias towards Israel, however the tutor, was open to both sides, and didn't mark you down if you argued against his views.


----------



## beamstas

Dont even get me started on lecturers

One of mine insisted to me that the share price was directly related to the assets of the company & moved by the value of the companies assets!

I then asked for an explanation of the daily movements of share prices but wasn't graced with one 

I was sure the market adjusted itself every time the secretary went out to buy milk and took some petty cash which adjusted the assets of the company  Following from this advice i started shorting all companies 1 day before pay day each week as i thought for sure the share price would go down because of the cash coming out of the company

Ok im being sarcastic, but sometimes lecturers should actually think about what they *Teach*. I know they are academics and not teachers but come on!!


Another one last week; we were doing an assignment about a special offer by a company giving a $100 food voucher per year as an incentive to buy shares in it (like a dividend). The argument was that institutional investors wouldn't be happy about it. 

I was *told *that one reason they might not like to take up such a large offer is because they wouldn't be able to sell the shares to another institution because the food vouchers would be useless to the institution. *The lecture didn't believe me that they could simply sell them on the asx and that you don't have to find a buyer for your exact number of shares to sell them! *


----------



## nunthewiser

nunthewiser said:


> will be coming soon in my not so great as others opinion .....
> 
> hope ya didnt follow anyones advice in locking in them losses at the top of this rally and followed ya own nose
> 
> hey i could be wrong but trhis brewing up like one of those perfect storm moments and we going to get some teary eyed traders shortly




well done ivant , dodgy trading methods but hey its the cash that is the result........


----------



## ivant

Lol, i think the dodgy part was the overtrading... I am out and long. Will get out in 50 points or so. then i'll go short 3850s lightly to 3680. Let's see how that goes... There was no liquidity!! No one was selling into the market, was so hard to get rid off all the contracts! But all good  hahaha Thanks for your support people 

In terms of psychological strength, I don't know what to say? I didn't think I was that psychologically strong.


----------



## Mr J

> Dont even get me started on lecturers




I imagine like most jobs that some a great and some are horrible, but it's ridiculous to have a class ruined because of a biased "my way or the highway" type teacher.



> I know they are academics and not teachers but come on!




That's not an excuse. It sounds like they're failure is not only in teaching, but also the intelligence to be able to be objective and mark on the merit of discussion, rather than whether or not they agree with the conclusion.


----------



## ivant

beamstas said:


> Dont even get me started on lecturers
> 
> One of mine insisted to me that the share price was directly related to the assets of the company & moved by the value of the companies assets!
> 
> I then asked for an explanation of the daily movements of share prices but wasn't graced with one
> 
> I was sure the market adjusted itself every time the secretary went out to buy milk and took some petty cash which adjusted the assets of the company  Following from this advice i started shorting all companies 1 day before pay day each week as i thought for sure the share price would go down because of the cash coming out of the company
> 
> Ok im being sarcastic, but sometimes lecturers should actually think about what they *Teach*. I know they are academics and not teachers but come on!!
> 
> 
> Another one last week; we were doing an assignment about a special offer by a company giving a $100 food voucher per year as an incentive to buy shares in it (like a dividend). The argument was that institutional investors wouldn't be happy about it.
> 
> I was *told *that one reason they might not like to take up such a large offer is because they wouldn't be able to sell the shares to another institution because the food vouchers would be useless to the institution. *The lecture didn't believe me that they could simply sell them on the asx and that you don't have to find a buyer for your exact number of shares to sell them! *




Haha wouldn't it be great if it was all that easy? i mean shorting companies everytime they buy milk?? hahaha. Do you know what a PhD in finance told me 2 years ago? 

"Stocks are moved by the decisions of the board," he said, so I thought "OK decisions do impact the price"
So I asked, "how do you mean? I am talking about the daily fluctuations"
He answers to me "that's right the board decides these fluctuations..."

I **** you not that is what he said word for word. I don't know if it was his English and he meant that, but that was the funniest thing i'd ever heard. That is Uni. Where do you study Brad?


----------



## skc

ivant said:


> Lol, i think the dodgy part was the overtrading... I am out and long. Will get out in 50 points or so. then i'll go short 3850s lightly to 3680. Let's see how that goes... There was no liquidity!! No one was selling into the market, was so hard to get rid off all the contracts! But all good  hahaha Thanks for your support people
> 
> In terms of psychological strength, I don't know what to say? I didn't think I was that psychologically strong.




For the benefit of the crowd. What's your average exit price?


----------



## ivant

skc said:


> For the benefit of the crowd. What's your average exit price?




7950.5-7954.5 on the IG pricing scheme, not sure about average, because I was trying to buy in a market that wasn't liquid. 5 minis weren't going through.. Average entry price is 3750.65 (according to my calculator). Let's see how this all goes...


----------



## Aussiest

Ivan, you didn't think to wait until around 3650 to go long? Even 3550-3650...


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Ivan, you didn't think to wait until around 3650 to go long? Even 3550-3650...




Not at the moment. I did not fully commit, and am anticipating that we go to 3660-80ish, however the likelihood is very slim. We are massively oversold on the 4 hour. Too far too fast. I'd think for us to break the current channel (about 10 points lower is support) we need to break down at a higher level, ie fail to test 3850/3950/4000


----------



## beamstas

Ivan getting smashed again!


----------



## nunthewiser

beamstas said:


> Ivan getting smashed again!




at least he honest about his trading , unlike others


----------



## MRC & Co

beamstas said:


> Ivan getting smashed again!




How?  His cut and reverse sounds logical to me.

We are way over-extended and the SPI spread V the S&P has blown right out, we are far too low.


----------



## Cartman

kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight


----------



## skc

Cartman said:


> kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight




I sense the cash is dragging down the SPI at the moment. I am half guessing the SPI will jump back toward 3750 between 4 and 4:30.


----------



## Aussiest

Cartman said:


> kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight




Yeah, one more day in the red, one undecided. 3650 my aim! Even 3550. But, each to their own.


----------



## cutz

That will be the icing on the cake Aussiest if you turn out to be correct.

EDIT>> And what a lovely finish on the cash index, ( i assume that's what you futures guys call the XJO )


----------



## ivant

beamstas said:


> Ivan getting smashed again!




Haha I am only 10 points down... Most I have been is 20 since I entered? Getting smashed is 300 for me 



nunthewiser said:


> at least he honest about his trading , unlike others




Haha, do you know what I find funny, why would one lie about their trading in a forum? I just really don't see the point. By the way, still got your shorts in BHP? Good day today for them 



MRC & Co said:


> How?  His cut and reverse sounds logical to me.
> 
> We are way over-extended and the SPI spread V the S&P has blown right out, we are far too low.




Yea that was pretty much my logic behind the trade. We are oversold on many short-term timeframes. In particular 1,2,and 4 hour charts. The 1,2,3 and 4 hour charts are all signalling a short-term rebound, or at least a halt in the move. We have went too far too fast, especially versus the S&P (maybe budget blues). 



Cartman said:


> kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight




I think anything is possible. What worried me a little last night is some very unexpected resistance at 8280-300. Was odd. I get the feeling they might be in for an upmove. The selling just isn't what I expected originally. The bulls are still very strong. And foolish. 



			
				Aussiest said:
			
		

> Yeah, one more day in the red, one undecided. 3650 my aim! Even 3550. But, each to their own.




I think that those targets will be met soon with no doubt. I'd like to see some technical pain at the moment. They are at a crucial trendline at the moment, and they have failed to break it on 6 occasions, and it dates back to late March. I think only once that is breached significantly (it has whipsawed once) we can head lower. Then there will be a tonne of resistance at the 3650 level. If we go there in one hit, that's 350 points in one straight line. I just dont see the panic at the moment around the line. Around 2pm it went slightly under, and it was literally pushed on no volume. That was odd. You want to see a high volume break, not some small time manipulation. It just doesn't seem right at the moment. A rebound to 3850 is likely, and that would create a head and shoulders with 4000 being the top. Makes sense to me.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> A rebound to 3850 is likely, and that would create a head and shoulders with 4000 being the top. Makes sense to me.




Yes, i think a top of around 4000 would be possible. Maybe 30-40 points above. But, i disagree with you re- the 3650 thing. I think we may get there in the next two days. If we don't, all bets are off 

Let's wait and see, time will tell!!


----------



## Cartman

ivant said:


> I think that those targets will be met soon with no doubt. I'd like to see some technical pain at the moment. They are at a crucial trendline at the moment, and they have failed to break it on 6 occasions, and it dates back to late March. I think only once that is breached significantly (it has whipsawed once) we can head lower. Then there will be a tonne of resistance at the 3650 level. If we go there in one hit, that's 350 points in one straight line. I just dont see the panic at the moment around the line. Around 2pm it went slightly under, and it was literally pushed on no volume. That was odd. You want to see a high volume break, not some small time manipulation. It just doesn't seem right at the moment. A rebound to 3850 is likely, and that would create a head and shoulders with 4000 being the top. Makes sense to me.




agree Ivan ----  the current pattern is a bit like a recent one only with extended range/momentum ----- thats the iffy bit atm ----

if it follows that pattern we might end up with something like below --- interesting that we agree on the 3850 

if it breaks and closes under 3650, that would change the whole vibe --- surprised if it does that but anything is possible eh


----------



## beamstas

I actually had the same thoughts as cartman  (maybe its time i leave?  )






If we move through 3660 then it will be our first lower low since *the bottom*

We have managed to smash through the trendline moving up, as well as some minor support

Im bearish!

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Cartman

beamstas said:


> I actually had the same thoughts as cartman




thats how it starts Brad !! ---- then u get the rash ---- 
then u start thinking yr an animated cartoon character ---
get help b4 its too late :


----------



## MRC & Co

ivant said:


> Yea that was pretty much my logic behind the trade. We are oversold on many short-term timeframes. In particular 1,2,and 4 hour charts. The 1,2,3 and 4 hour charts are all signalling a short-term rebound, or at least a halt in the move. We have went too far too fast, especially versus the S&P (maybe budget blues).




Yeh, though I would think it would be safer to put on a ratio spread, at least have some short S&P.  But each to their own.


----------



## nunthewiser

ivant said:


> By the way, still got your shorts in BHP? Good day today for them
> 
> 
> 
> .




yeah m8 , let one parcel go riding rest ,posted strategy in bhp thread


----------



## CanOz

Is this for real? Options expiry?


----------



## -Swig-

CanOz said:


> Is this for real? Options expiry?




Think you got a bad tick there, sonny Jim.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, its gone now

Thanks mate.

CanOz


----------



## Aussiest

Ouch. CPI and retail due out today in the US. I wonder how it will be recieved


----------



## ivant

yea CPI was flat. Anyhow I am out of my longs. Now I shall play the waiting game. Hopefully we go a good 2 handles higher. Oh and MRC i was thinking of shorting SPX too, but went against it. I just stuck with the good old directional


----------



## Aussiest

What do ya reckon? Down day for the NASDAQ? Ew, gold looking good (prediction), oil down.

Alot can happen between now and close, but will effect our market on Monday. Short traders rejoice  (hopefully, not speaking out of context


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> What do ya reckon? Down day for the NASDAQ? Ew, gold looking good (prediction), oil down.
> 
> Alot can happen between now and close, but will effect our market on Monday. Short traders rejoice  (hopefully, not speaking out of context




Haha speaking about a tired bull!! I want S&P to break 877 and then I shorting the heck out of this baby! I get the feeling there could be one more squeeze though. Crude needs to break 55, and then its all over for it too! right down to 50.50 then 48, then 12.99, which is ironically what I bought a box of chocolates for. For those who want to know how I trade, I compare assets to chocolate prices!


----------



## Frank D

ivant said:


> Crude needs to break 55, and then its all over for it too! right down to 50.50 then 48, then 12.99, which is ironically what I bought a box of chocolates




Ivant,

I totally agree that OIL can move down into your lower prices.

There is a breakout of the Primary trend in 2008, and  price often moves
 in  double patterns, which is down into the Yearly lows in 2009. On my 
levels its around the $16's

But whilst price is above the monthly 50% levels, there can be higher
 prices in the 3rd Quarter, and up into $73.00.

So this pullback in MAY and those 50% levels in MAY-June are the key 
levels.


----------



## MRC & Co

Thx for that oil analysis Frank.

Ivan, good work on those quick longs!


----------



## skyQuake

ivant said:


> then 12.99, which is ironically what I bought a box of chocolates for. For those who want to know how I trade, I compare assets to chocolate prices!




Guys, looks like its time to long chocolate futs


----------



## ivant

Haha nah mate, trading spot chocolates through woolworths markets  Sadly expiry is quick after purchase  Omg I am becoming so so lame 

Haha thanks MR c  I was expecting a little more from them, but it just wasn't happening last night. Woke up today, to a nice surprise today! By the way, I don't see oil going below $35 a barrel. I was just kidding. But A very interesting point of view, and I will not be too surprised if it happens. I get the feeling we need to retest the lows though for that to happen! Depression talk needs to be back on the table in my view.


----------



## Mr J

Not the most interesting start to the day.


----------



## jersey10

Mr J said:


> Not the most interesting start to the day.




a choppy, disgusting mess


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Not the most interesting start to the day.






jersey10 said:


> a choppy, disgusting mess




Typical tight range morning after a big gap up after a previous arvo anticipation rally.

Just another day............


----------



## Mr J

It makes sense that today is a dud, as it's the first day in a week I haven't slept through trading hours . Makes me even more tempted to automate the trading.


----------



## skyQuake

Fwiw, lots of the popular small caps are fading through the day against the SPI both today and yesterday.
Looks like spec interest is dimming.


----------



## Real1ty

skyQuake said:


> Fwiw, lots of the popular small caps are fading through the day against the SPI both today and yesterday.
> Looks like spec interest is dimming.




I've noticed that also but with some of the % gains that have been made in these type of stocks over the last month or so it isn't really surprising imo.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sheizzus Christ looks like the SPI locals are off playing in other backyards.

Where the hell is the volume


----------



## Mr J

Just as well. I've been awake 24 hours, so it would probably be similar to trading while drunk. My only goal today is to stay awake long enough to make sure I'll be up for tomorrow's session.


----------



## skyQuake

a 25 point day... that disgraceful! 

Maybe post cash close we'll see some action


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Sheizzus Christ looks like the SPI locals are off playing in other backyards.
> 
> Where the hell is the volume




Yep, it's a disgrace.  

What looks to be an algo bot, decimates the ability to do size without being caught in it's pulling, thinning and spoofing wrath, hope they figure out the SPI isn't a big European market or IMHO liquidity will subtley move elsewhere if it's not cleaned up (looks like it already is with the volumes lately).


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Yep, it's a disgrace.
> 
> This bot decimates the ability to do size without being caught in it's pulling and spoofing wrath, hope they figure out the SPI isn't a big European market or liquidity will subtley move elsewhere if it's not cleaned up (looks like it already is with the volumes lately).




You know where to find the action Mr C . You see its made a new high for the year today on a 40 tick runner from the opening lows 


:nunchux:


----------



## Mr J

Hoping to get another ride down here, but it's slow.


----------



## Mr J

Another dull day. Weather too.


----------



## ivant

I've been shorting for 2 days now too. This is just so up and down at the moment. So slow and quiet. There really is a trend for selling early and buying back at the end of the day at the moment. hmm.


----------



## -Swig-

I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day..


----------



## Average Joe

Double bottom?


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL at the SPI.

What a joke. Were are all the punters??


----------



## ivant

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL at the SPI.
> 
> What a joke. Were are all the punters??




There was a squirt of liquidity at 4am for a short time last night. Managed to get rid of my shorts then. The first minute seemed to be full of liquidity at 9.50! The rest was like some other days it seems. It's all because I am on holidays at the moment ! TH, do you think we are waiting for a retest of 3660-80 levels?


----------



## rossw

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL at the SPI.
> 
> What a joke. Were are all the punters??




in the HSI and kospi
400 point downtrend in hk in the hour before close
kospi some good moves too

SPI is dead  (although fell nicely in sync with the rest of asia from 1:30-3)


----------



## Mr J

Life in the SPI!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Fun & games when Kimmy boy lets the Crackers off


----------



## rossw

yeah

it's funny watching the average daily SPI volume go through in about 5mins on the kospi. big swings there


----------



## ivant

Speaking of a move.. 80 points during the night session. Not bad. Waiting for 3950.. Kospi is understandably a volatile market. However this thread is about the SPI, and there sadly isn't much to discuss. On a side note, Turbull back in top 200 richest Aussies with only 178 million...


----------



## Rick_Hunter

Hi Ivan,

I know there's not that much opportunities in spi200 atm due to a relatively narrow trading range

Just wondering, how you doing on Crude and what you think of it currently? It's a market that's interesting lately and it looks really really overbought, yet it continues to rally with very very shallow corrections


----------



## ivant

Rick_Hunter said:


> Hi Ivan,
> 
> I know there's not that much opportunities in spi200 atm due to a relatively narrow trading range
> 
> Just wondering, how you doing on Crude and what you think of it currently? It's a market that's interesting lately and it looks really really overbought, yet it continues to rally with very very shallow corrections




Lol, I am still making more money on the SPI at the moment than Crude. Crude is feeling like the $147 spike all over in my view. Maybe I slightly exaggerated, but I do that. I am looking at the $67-8 levels at the moment for a rebound, but I have no clue where this will go. I was heavily shorting it all the way from 48ish to 58, with an average entry at around the 53 mark. So I got burned big time on there. I still short it every now and then, but it just doesn't seem to move down. I am guessing it will go down when S&P breaks 877 firmly to the downside. Then this whole baby should unwind (including ASX). But for now, upside seems unlimited.


----------



## Mr J

Rick_Hunter said:


> Hi Ivan,
> It's a market that's interesting lately and it looks really really overbought, yet it continues to rally with very very shallow corrections




Not sure what you mean, as I don't see a rally. I see a peak that could very well prove to be a pivot, meaning we could already be a couple of hundred points into the correction.


----------



## ivant

Interesting close we had. Looking like 3950 isn't out of the question again...


----------



## Broadway

ivant said:


> Interesting close we had. Looking like 3950 isn't out of the question again...




Yea I saw a tonne of asx20 EOD 1610 volume.
3950 should be easy, if not higher.
Might need to wait a week or two, but it should get there.


----------



## ivant

Broadway said:


> Yea I saw a tonne of asx20 EOD 1610 volume.
> 3950 should be easy, if not higher.
> Might need to wait a week or two, but it should get there.




Not surprising. Any new news from the market depth screens? Seems like we are just slowly edging up higher


----------



## MRC & Co

Well just about everybody but us has broken their trading range.  US did it on the DAX open, HSI well through it and Nikkei now above it too.

SPI still way too low.


----------



## ivant

MRC & Co said:


> Well just about everybody but us has broken their trading range.  US did it on the DAX open, HSI well through it and Nikkei now above it too.
> 
> SPI still way too low.




Lol I am short again  entered 3900. Interesting to see how this one goes.


----------



## clayton4115

well by the way the market went today and its performance on friday, im sure we going to get to 4000 sooner than we think!

i gotta close my shorts tomorrow!


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> Lol I am short again  entered 3900. Interesting to see how this one goes.






clayton4115 said:


> i gotta close my shorts tomorrow!




What possible signal have you got to be short. EVERY thing is running.

Its quite clear that the boyz are back into risk taking mode and your are short


----------



## beamstas

ivant said:


> Lol I am short again  entered 3900. Interesting to see how this one goes.




Maybe its time i went long then


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, I just worry for you Ivant, that we have already seen profit taking in this range and now institutional buying is starting again.

I also think the SPI should be higher from a fundamental perspective, relative to other indices and with a rising AUD, it would be a good place to lay down your bets for international speculative capital.  I really think spreads on the long side could start coming into our market from abroad.

Add in a ravaged USD, Treasuries falling with yields still too low and some huge liquidity boosts coming into the global economy from CBs and Governments, and you can start to see why this rally has it's foot on the peddle.  

Nowhere else to put your coin, other than gold (which is about the only thing near it's high).  Hard assets look to also be seing some of the coin, as financial assets look a wreck in these times.  Negative real yields to be seen from them probably yet.


----------



## rossw

Broadway said:


> Yea I saw a tonne of asx20 EOD 1610 volume.
> 3950 should be easy, if not higher.
> Might need to wait a week or two, but it should get there.




there were some MSCI index re-weights done on friday which caused all that stock volume in the match as portfolio managers rebalanced


----------



## ivant

We will see about the equities, I could be wrong. I had my first losing month in May since last May. I lost 5% of my capital.  As to why I am short, it is in my blog. There are a few charts there


----------



## sammy84

Once again when Ivan has gone short, I have started going long. Entered longs last friday in the US and AUS. Momentum seems to be favoring a run higher. Money management will save the day if I'm wrong.


----------



## Broadway

rossw said:


> there were some MSCI index re-weights done on friday which caused all that stock volume in the match as portfolio managers rebalanced




Ross, could you explain that in a little more detail to a newb like me?

Much appreciated.


----------



## Largesse

looks likes its going to be another one of those 'underwater off the bat' type trades for ya Ivan?

Bloomberg just showing up at 939.71


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> Ross, could you explain that in a little more detail to a newb like me?
> 
> Much appreciated.




Have a look here. http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/equity/index.jsp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSCI_World

MSCI International Equity Indices are the most widely used global benchmarks in the industry. Its like the All Ords for the world.

They got re-shuffled so all the world funds & ETFs that track it will be shuffling to equal the new weightings in each company. hardly a new money trade, just book keeping.


----------



## nunthewiser

a nice lil short ......... right about ...............................here?

oops better add a number

942.20


for the record this is not a trade as such just an observation


----------



## Bobby

Check these figures :

The US alone has interest-bearing liabilities of  $30 US Trillion .
So far the US Fed & Treasury have pumped about $3 to $4 trillion into the system compared to base money of about $800 billion before the the crash .

Whats the total worth of of the US  ?


Confused "  me also .. possible $176 trillion .


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


> Have a look here. http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/equity/index.jsp
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSCI_World
> 
> MSCI International Equity Indices are the most widely used global benchmarks in the industry. Its like the All Ords for the world.
> 
> They got re-shuffled so all the world funds & ETFs that track it will be shuffling to equal the new weightings in each company. hardly a new money trade, just book keeping.




Ok cool, I get that.Thx.

But how does that make all the 1610pm asx20 volume triple?

Heres BHP as an example, but all the asx20 looked the same on friday avo.

And is it just coincidence that we rallied since then?


----------



## Broadway

nunthewiser said:


> a nice lil short ......... right about ...............................here?
> 
> oops better add a number
> 
> 942.20
> 
> 
> for the record this is not a trade as such just an observation




I think in a day or two we will be below ES940.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> Ok cool, I get that.Thx.
> 
> *But how does that make all the 1610pm asx20 volume triple*?
> 
> Heres BHP as an example, but all the asx20 looked the same on friday avo.
> 
> And is it just coincidence that we rallied since then?




*Mate you don't get it.* Clearly by the second line in your post. It was fundies doing business. Simply swapping and re balancing portfolios with the arbs. If you did get it you would of noticed that all week the SPI was running 15 or more points away from the XJO, higher and lower on days. Friday it got squared up. The fundies needed to move a lot of stocks, both buys & sells, on the close of biz Friday as per the index reshuffling. The arbs helped them out. Of course they did what arbs do and got there clip off the top by getting 15 points all week.

BUT,

You just want it to be a positive like you always do. Thou you haven't answered me about why is it a positive when there was equal amount of LARGE sellers?????


----------



## Sean K

ivant said:


> As to why I am short, it is in my blog. There are a few charts there



Why can't you post it in here ivant?


----------



## Trembling Hand

:







kennas said:


> Why can't you post it in here ivant?




Cuz he wants to go to gaol :emp:


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> when there was equal amount of LARGE sellers?????




Exactly
In fact i see high volume as the opposite
Bearish


----------



## ivant

kennas said:


> Why can't you post it in here ivant?




Because the charts are pasted into there and the explanations are given. Why repeat myself? 



Trembling Hand said:


> :
> 
> Cuz he wants to go to gaol :emp:




I do? lol. That's a new one...


----------



## Sean K

ivant said:


> Because the charts are pasted into there and the explanations are given. Why repeat myself?



No need to. Paste them in here first. Then in your blog make a link to ASF. Simple!


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


> *Mate you don't get it.* Clearly by the second line in your post. It was fundies doing business. Simply swapping and re balancing portfolios with the arbs. If you did get it you would of noticed that all week the SPI was running 15 or more points away from the XJO, higher and lower on days. Friday it got squared up. The fundies needed to move a lot of stocks, both buys & sells, on the close of biz Friday as per the index reshuffling. The arbs helped them out. Of course they did what arbs do and got there clip off the top by getting 15 points all week.
> 
> BUT,
> 
> You just want it to be a positive like you always do. Thou you haven't answered me about why is it a positive when there was equal amount of LARGE sellers?????




Ok, point taken.

Thankyou for the explanation.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> I do? lol. That's a new one...




Just noticed your comment on your blog about charging people 5 bucks for a members area.

You wouldn't be selling financial advice without a lic would ya?


----------



## Sean K

Trembling Hand said:


> Just noticed your comment on your blog about charging people 5 bucks for a members area.
> 
> You wouldn't be selling financial advice without a lic would ya?





Ah, that's why I have to go there for the charts.

Who would have thought!!!


----------



## ivant

Lol, I will still be posting charts up on the blog, regardless of whether there are members or not. However, I am considering adding a member's area there indeed in the near future. Maybe in a month or two? I've had a few visitors suggest that. *shrugs*. Whether I do or not, is a different matter. In terms of financial advice, it is not financial advice. Financial advice constitutes when you tell someone what to do, I am simply posting what I am doing. The difference in language between "I suggest you short the market" and "I am shorting the market"... I have not told anyone here on ASF to short the market, have I? I have simply stated that I am short again  does not equal financial advice. Let's see how my discipline plays out in terms of posting everyday. I used to post once a month... Lol


----------



## beamstas

He's short ont he AUD and the SPI
Im yet to see any shades of the brilliance it would take to go from $1300 to $450,000.

Not saying it doesn't exist

Ivan, are you really a pro trader who has been trading 8 years?
What does it take to be a pro?


----------



## Aussiest

beamstas said:


> Im yet to see any shades of the brilliance it would take to go from $1300 to $450,000.




I'm actually wondering Ivan, how did you go from $1.3k to whatever it is now ($450k i believe. Not that it matters, just curious)?

Example: If you had gone long one SPI futures contract, that is a $1250.00 deposit. All it would have taken was for that contract to move down a few ticks and you probably would have had your position closed out.


----------



## ivant

beamstas said:


> He's short ont he AUD and the SPI
> Im yet to see any shades of the brilliance it would take to go from $1300 to $450,000.
> 
> Not saying it doesn't exist
> 
> Ivan, are you really a pro trader who has been trading 8 years?
> What does it take to be a pro?




Well technically I have been trading for 8 years, and I assume anyone who does it for a living and makes 100% of their income from that particular field is a pro. For example, if i was a musician playing in pubs and making 100% of my income from that, then I would be a pro musician (while not really having to be playing on Rod Laver or Wembley). Do I make sense? 



Aussiest said:


> I'm actually wondering Ivan, how did you go from $1.3k to whatever it is now ($450k i believe. Not that it matters, just curious)?
> 
> Example: If you had gone long one SPI futures contract, that is a $1250.00 deposit. All it would have taken was for that contract to move down a few ticks and you probably would have had your position closed out.




The old margin needed for IG Markets was 500. Now its 250 if you are on their  "trader platform". I showed my statements to a moderator, and he approved it.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> The old margin needed for IG Markets was 500. Now its 250 if you are on their  "trader platform". I showed my statements to a moderator, and he approved it.




It's $250.00 for a mini.

Anyhow, to me it means that you would have had to have been lucky a few times over. Eg, go in hard long with tight stops. Take profit. Go in short hard with tight stops (and not be stopped out) and take profit. Repeat over and over again. 

Not so much asking for evidence, just _how_. I respect what you have say, i really do. Just seems like you'd have to get in and out really close to reversals etc., with lots of contracts / leverage. In order to get high leverage with IG, you need to set tight stops. And, if you had have been stopped out, it would have eaten into your initial capital.


----------



## Mr J

Another boring day. Got to diversify.


----------



## skc

Aussiest said:


> It's $250.00 for a mini.
> 
> Anyhow, to me it means that you would have had to have been lucky a few times over. Eg, go in hard long with tight stops. Take profit. Go in short hard with tight stops (and not be stopped out) and take profit. Repeat over and over again.
> 
> Not so much asking for evidence, just _how_. I respect what you have say, i really do. Just seems like you'd have to get in and out really close to reversals etc., with lots of contracts / leverage. In order to get high leverage with IG, you need to set tight stops. And, if you had have been stopped out, it would have eaten into your trading capital.




We've been through all this on another thread. The thread title relates to "blows goat" from memory...


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> It's $250.00 for a mini.
> 
> Anyhow, to me it means that you would have had to have been lucky a few times over. Eg, go in hard long with tight stops. Take profit. Go in short hard with tight stops (and not be stopped out) and take profit. Repeat over and over again.
> 
> Not so much asking for evidence, just _how_. I respect what you have say, i really do. Just seems like you'd have to get in and out really close to reversals etc., with lots of contracts / leverage. In order to get high leverage with IG, you need to set tight stops. And, if you had have been stopped out, it would have eaten into your trading capital...




Yea thats right. Except I never put in stops because they create spikes. Just mental ones. I started of trading one mini. Started piling up. I trade at least 10 full contracts now. I started out by trying to play every short term move. I had days where I made 200 points in a 75 point range day. That spat in my face a few times and I stopped doing that. Now all i need is about 100 points a week to make 100k a month. I made 100k in April.


----------



## Aussiest

skc said:


> We've been through all this on another thread. The thread title relates to "blows goat" from memory...




I'm not sure that we went through the "how"... I thought it was more "did you really do it"?

Edit: just had a quick squizz, it seems you are right. Never really got to ask Ivan this particular question. It seems relevant to the thread right now


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> That spat in my face a few times and I stopped doing that. Now all i need is about 100 points a week to make 100k a month. I made 100k in April.




How do you mean "they spat in my face a few times"? Do you mean it was difficult trading the swings during the day?

Well done on the 100!


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> How do you mean "they spat in my face a few times"? Do you mean it was difficult trading the swings during the day?
> 
> Well done on the 100!




lol the positions, not IG. I was in the process of tweaking my system and every bad trade caused me to go longer and longer term. now i trade the 3-4 hour charts. i used to trade the 5-15 minute charts.


----------



## Aussiest

Mr J said:


> Another boring day. Got to diversify.




Have you thought about doing some shares J? You could pick 4 or 5 and specialise in those.


----------



## Average Joe

Ivan,
Do you still trade with IG? I find it difficult after normal hours when they change the spread, making it hard to get points on a ranging market. There has been occasions in which I tried to trade withing a range, just to see the spread increase to 10 points just after I went long.

If you don't mind me asking, what time frames do you use?


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> lol the positions, not IG. I was in the process of tweaking my system and every bad trade caused me to go longer and longer term.




I hear what you're saying . You must have had a bit of capital built up in your open positions not to be closed out if a long went against you 

Anyhow, apparently this is repetitive. Sorry if you're over talking about it 

Just love hearing stories from traders


----------



## Mr J

Ivant, how many markets do you trade?


----------



## ivant

Average Joe said:


> Ivan,
> Do you still trade with IG? I find it difficult after normal hours when they change the spread, making it hard to get points on a ranging market. There has been occasions in which I tried to trade withing a range, just to see the spread increase to 10 points just after I went long.
> 
> If you don't mind me asking, what time frames do you use?




Unfortunately, I have to say I still do. I have an IB account open, and now just in the process of starting that all up, but I still trade with IG for the moment. The spread at night is a killer! Keep looking at a chart though in the evenings, and trade that price. If you have a 3950-60 or 3940-70, the price is still the same on the chart  I have held some positions for months. I try to change my positions every week, but it all can be much longer than that. On average I'd say I have positions for about 2 weeks now.



Aussiest said:


> I hear what you're saying . You must have had a bit of capital built up in your open positions not to be closed out if a long went against you
> 
> Anyhow, apparently this is repetitive. Sorry if you're over talking about it
> 
> Just love hearing stories from traders




Lol, at the start the 1300 was all I actually had in the account. So if that contract went against me, I'd be in a bit of trouble lol. 



Mr J said:


> Ivant, how many markets do you trade?




Until recently I only traded the SPI and a few other indexes (S&P500 and DJIA). I have since started trading nymex crude, and just recently thinking about doing more Forex. I can't say they are overly successful (about breakeven). I had a 65k loss in oil last month! So that was a bit of a hit. Wiped out all of my previous gains. Just trying to get a system for the crude. Forex i am basing on fib retracements, and support/resistance. yesterday shorted the Aud against USD at 80 and a 1/2. Get the feeling it could go up to 85, but the risk/reward is pretty good. 70 on the downside. we shall see how that one goes


----------



## Edwood

Average Joe said:


> Ivan,
> Do you still trade with IG? I find it difficult after normal hours when they change the spread, making it hard to get points on a ranging market




you'll probably find IG just track the SPI spread.  CMC used to be great for out of hours as they always ran a 4pt spread regardless of what SPI spread was doing.  Not any more unfortunately, they now track SPI spread so IG probably just doing the same


----------



## Trembling Hand

looks like 3960 is the new 3950 :


----------



## beamstas

Come on 4000 Come on 4000 Come on 4000

I think i can.. I think i can.. I think i can..


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> looks like 3960 is the new 3950 :




Was that ivan's 350 contracts at 3940 that didn't get filled?


----------



## beamstas

skc said:


> Was that ivan's 350 contracts at 3940 that didn't get filled?




LOL

No offense ivan

But im going to pay the $5

Just so i can trade against you

Few weeks ago you were shorting CRUDE & the SPI

And now Shorting the AUD

There could be some money in this


----------



## jersey10

beamstas said:


> Come on 4000 Come on 4000 Come on 4000
> 
> I think i can.. I think i can.. I think i can..




here it comes


----------



## skc

jersey10 said:


> here it comes




Don't get overly excited. 3965 now the new 3940.

(Doubt it will hold up in the afternoon - but purely guessing here)


----------



## jersey10

skc said:


> Don't get overly excited. 3965 now the new 3940.
> 
> (Doubt it will hold up in the afternoon - but purely guessing here)




4k by the end of the session?


----------



## beamstas

Come on! You can do it!


----------



## Frank D

It needs to clear 3988 to head towards 4021...

It it fails @ 3988 and drops below 3965 after 3pm then it's not going up.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

5 left to go.  I'ts on like donkey kong.


----------



## beamstas

Everything has come to a halt at 3995... seems everyone is just waiting...


----------



## Mr J

Don't tempt me to short here. I don't want to do it.


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Mr J said:


> Don't tempt me to short here. I don't want to do it.




Haha.  Well I resisted.  Stopped up nice and tight now though.


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> Everything has come to a halt at 3995... seems everyone is just waiting...




watch it go through now that I have flipping the 3996/3995 spread 4 times and wipe my profit


----------



## Mr J

So tempting.

Famous last words: I'm in.


----------



## ivant

Its an amazing short opportunity. I am just being a little conservative at the moment, and not doubling my bet just in case Dow hits 9000... A likely scenario. I have never seen such high overbought levels on the 4 hour... despite that, this can go anywhere... (still short 50 lol)


----------



## Trembling Hand

ivant said:


> I am just being a little conservative at the moment, and not doubling my bet just in case Dow hits 9000... A likely scenario. I have never seen such high overbought levels on the 4 hour...




got a chart of said "high overbought levels on the 4 hour"?


----------



## Mr J

Fall, baby, fall.


----------



## nomore4s

ivant said:


> Its an amazing short opportunity. I am just being a little conservative at the moment, and not doubling my bet just in case Dow hits 9000... A likely scenario. I have never seen such high overbought levels on the 4 hour... despite that, this can go anywhere... (still short 50 lol)




But won't it only take 4-8 hours of sideways action to unwind that "overbrought" level. Prices could just consolidate now above 3900.

Alot of strength in the market atm not sure I want to be betting against it yet - on my timeframe anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand

I guess the problem with getting fixated on lagging indicators is that,,


----------



## moXJO

You shorts are braver than I. I thought it looked bullish breaking above that old resistance and above 200MA?(so long as it closes above)

I'm long like Donkey kongs prong on some US stock though. So I hope you guys are wrong:


----------



## CapnBirdseye

When or if the XJO gets to 4000, will it stop raining?  Hope so.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> I guess the problem with getting fixated on lagging indicators is that,,




What are you talking about? Clearly with balls of steel and holding onto my position I am now break even!

2 more points to 4000. I have party popers in hand.


----------



## Mr J

I don't like the terms overbought and oversold because it only refers to whether the market seems out of balance, and not to whether the market is turning.


----------



## ivant

Bagh its not letting me upload. i'll post a link in a sec


----------



## beamstas

ivant said:


> Bagh its not letting me upload. i'll post a link in a sec




Its ok we can just go to your blog


----------



## skc

There we go! Merry Xmas everyone.


----------



## beamstas

4000 next stop 7000


----------



## korrupt_1

skc said:


> There we go! Merry Xmas everyone.




... followed by Easter decorations the very next day


----------



## Mr J

beamstas said:


> 4000 next stop 7000




Great. Good ride up, and it'll be an even better ride down. GFC #2. I missed the first.


----------



## beamstas

That was short lived


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> That was short lived




That was a SPi breakout.


----------



## moXJO

While everyones here what is the e-mini symbols for dow, s&p 500 and xjo?


----------



## ivant

There we go. Otherwise http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Wyd5_hNpg30/SiX6rWKpYrI/AAAAAAAAABs/OEOOQwVcW3Q/s1600-h/img_12440024174699.gif.

I don't use RSI that much, I prefer Chande's. Overbought/oversold indicators often do unwind and consolidate, without doubt. That's why it is good to use them with support and resistance lines, as well as fib levels. They do often fail. But you still never see a market rally 200 points in the face of massively overbought levels without a stop.


----------



## Trembling Hand

moXJO said:


> While everyones here what is the e-mini symbols for dow, s&p 500 and xjo?




YM
ES
SPI or AP

And of course you mean futures not emini!!


----------



## nomore4s

ivant said:


> But you still never see a market rally 200 points in the face of massively overbought levels without a stop.




I thought we just had a break and consolidation? And now it is now pushing up through resistance?


----------



## moXJO

Trembling Hand said:


> YM
> ES
> SPI or AP
> 
> And of course you mean futures not emini!!




Ta TH,  you can tell I'm a futures nub


----------



## skc

ivant said:


> But you still never see a market rally 200 points in the face of massively overbought levels without a *stop*.




Stop <> Reverse is what everyone's saying. 

And despite SPI now being 4010, it's still raining in Sydney


----------



## beamstas

ivant said:


> I don't use RSI that much, I prefer Chande's. Overbought/oversold indicators often do unwind and consolidate, without doubt. That's why it is good to use them with support and resistance lines, as well as fib levels. They do often fail. But you still never see a market rally 200 points in the face of massively overbought levels without a stop.




You have so many indicators i can't even see the price


----------



## Frank D

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

Ivan,

You are like a great system, works perfectly when the market allows it 
to work perfectly, but when market conditions change all great systems experience drawdowns or go into the dust bin

You just need to work on your ability of understanding when those 
conditions change, and at the moment you’re simply not reading the
 market correctly.

This market is going to go to 4400, and if you are short you better hope 
the JUNE highs @ 4042 stop this up trend this month, otherwise you need 
to stop shorting the market above 4042 regardless of what you think.

Just my 2 bobs worth


----------



## MS+Tradesim

ivant said:


> Its an amazing short opportunity. I am just being a little conservative at the moment, and not doubling my bet just in case Dow hits 9000... A likely scenario. I have never seen such high overbought levels on the 4 hour... despite that, this can go anywhere... (still short 50 lol)







Rather than thinking about charging others it might be worth your while to get a membership of Frank D's blog.


----------



## beamstas

MS+Tradesim said:


> Rather than thinking about charging others it might be worth your while to get a membership of Frank D's blog.




Don't know why he'd need a fiver?
Since he made 100k in april?


----------



## ivant

nomore4s said:


> I thought we just had a break and consolidation? And now it is now pushing up through resistance?




different time frames in question. Longer term, no doubt. If you look at a daily chart, seems like we can definitely keep up the upwards trending line that started in late March, until eventually in July we hit 4400, which to me seems an unbreakable level of resistance at the moment. Who knows?



skc said:


> Stop <> Reverse is what everyone's saying.
> 
> And despite SPI now being 4010, it's still raining in Sydney




We have went so far without a correction it is crazy. Nevertheless, technically a rise is possible. I still would think that a 100-200 point correction from these levels is very likely, without breaking the upward trend.



beamstas said:


> You have so many indicators i can't even see the price




I have another page of indicators i use lol! two sets of templates..


----------



## Trembling Hand

Must be time for some demotivators from my friends at despair.com


----------



## Mr J

Think that's my last trade against the trend. Tried them to see how they would perform. They did well at first, but for the last month they've been breakeven, and an unworthwhile profit overall.


----------



## ivant

Frank D said:


> *SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*
> 
> Ivan,
> 
> You are like a great system, works perfectly when the market allows it
> to work perfectly, but when market conditions change all great systems experience drawdowns or go into the dust bin
> 
> You just need to work on your ability of understanding when those
> conditions change, and at the moment you’re simply not reading the
> market correctly.
> 
> This market is going to go to 4400, and if you are short you better hope
> the JUNE highs @ 4042 stop this up trend this month, otherwise you need
> to stop shorting the market above 4042 regardless of what you think.
> 
> Just my 2 bobs worth




Oh without doubt! as i said just 10 seconds ago, it seems very likely the market can edge to 4400 by mid-July. *"You are like a great system, works perfectly when the market allows it to work perfectly, but when market conditions change all great systems experience drawdowns or go into the dust bin"* That is a great line!! I have actually said it on occasions myself, maybe in not such pretty words  I am not so sure the market has changed so much since October 2007. If this rally extends further, then it will be one of the biggest rallies in history, % wise. I think 30% + rallies happened 4 or 5 times since the depression. *shrugs* time will tell!



MS+Tradesim said:


> Rather than thinking about charging others it might be worth your while to get a membership of Frank D's blog.




I didn't know Frank D had a paid blog, but I will definitely be checking it out. You have to also remember, that I have not charged anyone at this rate, just started posting in my blog a lot more, and simply considered it. 



beamstas said:


> Don't know why he'd need a fiver?
> Since he made 100k in april?




It is more so that I post in a disciplined matter. I am not so sure I can be disciplined enough to post everyday, and if I have members then I have a reason to post. If i find after a few months that i cant post on a daily basis, or more, then I obviously wouldn't have a member's section...


----------



## Frank D

ivant said:


> If this rally extends further, then it will be one of the biggest rallies in history, % wise. I think 30% + rallies happened 4 or 5 times since the depression. *shrugs* time will tell!




Ivan,

Your trading the secondary trends of the market, but forgetting the
 primary trends and reversal of those trends.

Back into 2003 the reversal towards the midpoint occurred in 
3-months.

If it follows the same pattern , which no doubt it will, the same thing 
can happen (4400). The only thing unknown is the speed of which it 
gets there.

If it hits 4400 quicker than expected in this Quarter or early 3rd 
Quarter, then 4400 is a brick wall.

I hope it doesn’t hit 4400 soon, as I* prefer the market to follow my 
model precisely and move in Monthly timeframe wave patterns, as it 
allows more rotation and potentially more opportunities to make money

Therefore 4042 is seen as random resistance in June (sycom 4088)*

Imo, it’s not the biggest rally in history, it’s simply reversing the 
previous down move in 2008 & early 2009. 

I like to think more like that it was the biggest correction in history, and this is simply reversing some 
of that down move.


----------



## Cartman

Frank D said:


> *SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*
> 
> This market is going to go to 4400, and if you are short you better hope
> the JUNE highs @ 4042 stop this up trend this month, otherwise you need
> to stop shorting the market above 4042 regardless of what you think.
> 
> Just my 2 bobs worth




Perhaps a little poetry to paraphrase that Frank 

The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
If your short, you'll be caught, he thought. 

But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
And the result much less gruesome.


----------



## beamstas

Cartman said:


> The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
> If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
> If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.
> 
> But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
> Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
> And the result much less gruesome.




The world of cartman


----------



## sammy84

Cartman said:


> Perhaps a little poetry to paraphrase that Frank
> 
> The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
> If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
> If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.
> 
> But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
> Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
> And the result much less gruesome.




Brought a tear to my eye. 

If that was the profit taking that occurred in the last few weeks, then this rally sure has some balls. Not a lot of weak holders here.


----------



## nunthewiser

ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?

hands up those currently holding long positions ?

dont want no "yeah m8 i entered yesterday" claims.just intrested on who doing what basically

i hold no shorts , have not entered any longs today , merely continuing to ride a few individual stock longs which were posted around these threads on entrys

just intrested ,not trying to hand out badges or stickers to anyone


----------



## beamstas

nunthewiser said:


> ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?
> 
> hands up those currently holding long positions ?
> 
> dont want no "yeah m8 i entered yesterday" claims.just intrested on who doing what basically
> 
> i hold no shorts , have not entered any longs today , merely continuing to ride a few individual stock longs which were posted around these threads on entrys
> 
> just intrested ,not trying to hand out badges or stickers to anyone




I went long at 3500, 50 contracts


----------



## nunthewiser

beamstas said:


> Maybe its time i went long then




that was the 1/6/09 

stop teasing me 

was just about to form a cheer squad for you


----------



## Cartman

sammy84 said:


> Brought a tear to my eye.




me too --- but i was cutting up onions at the time ---- i have more poetry for anyone interested ---- any topic --- any whatever !! --- no charge (Plus GST !!) 



nunthewiser said:


> ok *hands up* those currently *holding short* positions ?
> 
> *hands up* those currently *holding long* positions ?




i'm with u Nun ---- i'm holding neither ---- 

but my hands are up ---- i wish these bludy police would stop knocking at my door !! ---- ive done nothing wrong ----- 

(what is the definition of tax evasion by the way ??!! ) 

ps a short term long would be interesting at a retrace to 3950 (24 hr trade) --- a short ONLY after that retrace would be interesting at a failure of the previous high (currently around 4030) ---

my opinion is that the momentum has not been eaten up yet and until a serious retrace has been instigated,  NO short trades ---- i am becoming a more disciplined trader of late   lol --- 

interesting mini rally on the DX as i type --- looks suspiciously like the start of a bottoming formation


----------



## MRC & Co

Nun, I currently have a small long position.  Have nearly pulled it several times over the last couple months, but I'm just not fully convinced of the short side either......yet. (The long is very specialised and targeted at a certain area I felt would recover quickly, so sort of a micro strategy on the long position).


----------



## nunthewiser

Cartman said:


> i'm with u Nun ---- i'm holding neither ----
> 
> but my hands are up ---- i wish these bludy police would stop knocking at my door !! ---- ive done nothing wrong -----





i hold longs mate , have done for some time , all in profit with the exception of ADY which i am square on .....but that isnt index trades as this thread suggests so will keep them to myself

LOL re cops .the trick is to get yaself a decoy  blame everything on them


----------



## beamstas

nunthewiser said:


> that was the 1/6/09
> 
> stop teasing me
> 
> was just about to form a cheer squad for you




I was joking about the 50 contracts


----------



## sammy84

Nun I have been long for a while now. Its posted somewhere near the beginning of this thread when I went long. Sat out of the market 3 weeks ago, then went full risk allocation long last friday (I posted that somewhere here as-well in this thread, so no hindsight stuff). 

I dont find much point placing shorts for minor retracements when obviously our market is wanting to move higher.


----------



## nunthewiser

sammy84 said:


> Nun I have been long for a while now. Its posted somewhere near the beginning of this thread when I went long. Sat out of the market 3 weeks ago, then went full risk allocation long last friday (I posted that somewhere here as-well in this thread, so no hindsight stuff).
> 
> I dont find much point placing shorts for minor retracements when obviously our market is wanting to move higher.





yeah seen your calls in chat and around here .same with MRC,s and cartmans .......hindsight never crossed my mind

yep i have been shorting for more and more smaller moves of late and frankly the extra work and quick stopouts /quick skims hasnt really been worth the extra screen time and work ( i have made a buck and i do realise this is a strategy and succesful one for many here ).... im a lazier type trader 


so currently its only ivant and beamsta dreaming  that they have actual financial exposure to a direction of the main indicies at present ?

TH doesent need to answer as he prolly been short and long 58 times in the time spent typing this


----------



## ivant

Frank D said:


> Ivan,
> 
> Your trading the secondary trends of the market, but forgetting the
> primary trends and reversal of those trends.
> 
> Back into 2003 the reversal towards the midpoint occurred in
> 3-months.
> 
> If it follows the same pattern , which no doubt it will, the same thing
> can happen (4400). The only thing unknown is the speed of which it
> gets there.
> 
> If it hits 4400 quicker than expected in this Quarter or early 3rd
> Quarter, then 4400 is a brick wall.
> 
> I hope it doesn’t hit 4400 soon, as I* prefer the market to follow my
> model precisely and move in Monthly timeframe wave patterns, as it
> allows more rotation and potentially more opportunities to make money
> 
> Therefore 4042 is seen as random resistance in June (sycom 4088)*
> 
> Imo, it’s not the biggest rally in history, it’s simply reversing the
> previous down move in 2008 & early 2009.
> 
> I like to think more like that it was the biggest correction in history, and this is simply reversing some
> of that down move.




Believe me, I understand the primary trend very well. And in fact, my view, or "belief" (as van Tharp likes to say) about the world economy is that we will retest the lows. Aside from one bear market, since the great depression (inclusive) we have had all of them die in October early November. This economy is still shedding jobs at a rapid pace, and one month of positive numbers (or less than shocking numbers) does not signal a come-back. Housing will slide due to increasing foreclosures (rising unemployment), and this is not going to away. Today's GDP number sounds great, but how much of that component was due to Government spending and the trillions of dollars we will have to repay? The green shoots aren't there. The stock market is factoring in a recovery within a few months around the world. I'm sorry, I don't see it. So ultimately we will retest the lows, I have my money on that. So if you do separate the primary and secondary trends as you say you do, the primary is the ultimate collapse, the secondary is a potential move to 4400, and the one I am trading is a pullback to 3720, or maybe 3850 if this goes poorly.   



Cartman said:


> Perhaps a little poetry to paraphrase that Frank
> 
> The monthly high in July will catch my eye,
> If its a pie in the sky, this rise is no lie,
> If your short, you'll be caught, he thought.
> 
> But if its lower than June it could be a boon,
> Cause your tight shorts will loosen,
> And the result much less gruesome.




Nice 



nunthewiser said:


> ok hands up those currently holding short positions ?
> 
> hands up those currently holding long positions ?
> 
> dont want no "yeah m8 i entered yesterday" claims.just intrested on who doing what basically
> 
> i hold no shorts , have not entered any longs today , merely continuing to ride a few individual stock longs which were posted around these threads on entrys
> 
> just intrested ,not trying to hand out badges or stickers to anyone




Im short mildly. 65 mini contracts, average 3918.5 (added another 15 today at 4000).


Oh and lastly, my trade comes together on one event. I am bullish the USD as it has come down rapidly and is now around a crucial Fib level on several charts (against Euro, AUD and the canadian dollar amongst the most important ones). In addition, I am short crude again. Check out the Morgan Stanley commodities index ($CRX). If the S&P drops below 930, we are back in the trend. That means next stop is 880.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> and the one I am trading is a pullback to 3720, or maybe 3850 if this goes poorly.




Ivan, do you really think 3650 or 3750 is "retesting the lows"? i would consider 3300 a retest of the "lows". 3650 or 3750 would merely be retracements.


----------



## Frank D

Ivan,

based on the S&P price action Yesterday and so far today:- first time in
 6 days that there has been a break of intraday support, which could 
see prices back down into 917 over the next two days, you should 
hopefully do ok.

As long as price remains below 939 today.

*S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern*


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Aussiest said:


> Ivan, do you really think 3650 or 3750 is "retesting the lows"? i would consider 3300 a retest of the "lows". 3650 or 3750 would merely be retracements.





I think it depends which low you are referring to. The "lows" or THE low.  

3720-50 would be testing the most recent lows.


----------



## ivant

Aussiest said:


> Ivan, do you really think 3650 or 3750 is "retesting the lows"? i would consider 3300 a retest of the "lows". 3650 or 3750 would merely be retracements.




When i say retest the lows, I mean 3100. Just not now. I try keep my trades for less than 2 weeks most of the time. The 3100 is not going to come in a straight line, and I don't intend to play it in a straight line. There is a lot of time before October 



Frank D said:


> Ivan,
> 
> based on the S&P price action Yesterday and so far today:- first time in
> 6 days that there has been a break of intraday support, which could
> see prices back down into 917 over the next two days, you should
> hopefully do ok.
> 
> As long as price remains below 939 today.
> 
> *S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern*




Nice chart  I was hoping it would pull under 930 today. Yesterday's action was very interesting. It started off so well, and then the market faded. Often, if a big move in the US is followed by a flat day, it can symbolize a volatile day the following session. Will see how it plays out today. Won't call it that volatile at the moment. Then again VIX is up 3% at open


----------



## nunthewiser

nunthewiser said:


> a nice lil short ......... right about ...............................here?
> 
> oops better add a number
> 
> 942.20
> 
> 
> for the record this is not a trade as such just an observation





lol of all the calls to get right and i didnt even back it 

back to stopout trades and hoolahoops i guess


----------



## Cartman

nunthewiser said:


> LOL re cops .the trick is to get yaself a decoy  blame everything on them




sweet --- i knew the wife would come in handy one day !! ---  "bugga" --- where did she come from  :nosympath  



Cartman said:


> interesting mini *rally on the DX* as i type --- looks suspiciously like the start of a bottoming formation






ivant said:


> a
> 
> Oh and lastly, my trade comes together on one event. I am bullish the *USD* as it has come down rapidly




more interest coming in off that last low on the USD  --- ive taken my bear suit off but my bull suit is still at the dry cleaners  --- if we get a higher low on the next down cycle a flight to Pamplona might be worth a stab  --- certainly making your short look a bit healthier IVE.  good luck... 2morrow night session should tell a better story.


----------



## Mr J

Just noticed IB lowered the margin requirements. They state 5k initial and 4k for maintenance, I assume that means 5k to open the trade, and 4k to let it run? Or 5k at the start of the session? No idea.


----------



## cutz

Well done on your trade last night Mr J,

Are you going to ride this one or have you already closed out ?


BTW, not sure about futures but for options initial is amount required to open, maintenance is the overnight.


----------



## MRC & Co

Cartman said:


> more interest coming in off that last low on the USD  --- ive taken my bear suit off but my bull suit is still at the dry cleaners  --- if we get a higher low on the next down cycle a flight to Pamplona might be worth a stab  --- certainly making your short look a bit healthier IVE.  good luck... 2morrow night session should tell a better story.




Yes, I am short-term bullish USD and bearish commodities as of yesterday ASIA close, reasons, meetings in China are garnering a positive perception and the buying into HUMMER and Morgan Stanley are clear signals to the market.  Not to mention, the USD has been over-cooked in the short-term.  

What will this mean?  Probably that currency hedges from international speculative capital into the US will be taken off, giving the USD more upward momentum, probably some support for US Treasuries, but what for equities? It is the only area I am still unsure upon.  

Don't think the currency movements will make much impact, but will stronger US Treasuries give faith of further liquidity and hence an appreciation in global equity markets with the correction only coming in commodities, or will we see a pull-out of equities too in favour of financial assets?


----------



## -Swig-

Mr J said:


> Just noticed IB lowered the margin requirements. They state 5k initial and 4k for maintenance, I assume that means 5k to open the trade, and 4k to let it run? Or 5k at the start of the session? No idea.




Pretty sure it's the former.

Keep in mind the overnight margin requirements are doubled for initial/maintenance respectively.


----------



## Mr J

cutz said:


> Well done on your trade last night Mr J,
> 
> Are you going to ride this one or have you already closed out ?




No, that trade got stopped out very quickly. I shorted about 30 points before the it turned, well past my stop (which was 4 points as usual).


----------



## Largesse

looks like 930 was good for the time being


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Whats the verdict on the SPI now? Re-test the 3730ish lows?


----------



## sammy84

One down day and all the sudden people are talking about a retest of lows. The momentum of the market is still clearly pointing one way.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

sammy84 said:


> One down day and all the sudden people are talking about a retest of lows. The momentum of the market is still clearly pointing one way.




See those little curly things on the end of my sentences, they are called question marks  

Wasn't saying its going to re-test the lows, I was wondering what the thousand different opinions are on here. I won't be making any claims, I just find this place entertaining


----------



## sammy84

ThingyMajiggy said:


> See those little curly things on the end of my sentences, they are called question marks
> 
> Wasn't saying its going to re-test the lows, I was wondering what the thousand different opinions are on here. I won't be making any claims, I just find this place entertaining




Haha, sorry I got ahead of myself and didn't bother looking at the last character in the sentence, my bad :

For what it is worth I was not too bothered by today. The US drop last night wasn't very convincing (look at the volumes accompanying it). Another day like this however and then I might start look for possible retracement zones.


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, I am short-term bullish USD and bearish commodities as of yesterday ASIA close,
> 
> Don't think the currency movements will make much impact, but will stronger US Treasuries give faith of further liquidity and hence an appreciation in global equity markets with the correction only coming in commodities, or will we see a pull-out of equities too in favour of financial assets?




howdy Mirc,

the USD still has a bit of leg work to do to prove up a reversal eh! ---- the last rally had a bit of positivity about it though  ---- still need to see a proven double bottom over a coupla days to get interested 



Cartman said:


> ps a *short term long* would be interesting *at* a retrace to *3950* (24 hr trade) --- a short ONLY after that retrace would be interesting at a *failure of the previous high* (currently around 4030) ---





sammy84 said:


> One down day and all the sudden people are talking about a retest of lows. The *momentum* of the market is still clearly pointing one way.




point is taken Sam ------ currently around that 3950 (short term long trade scenario) ----- the last high needs to be tested and fail b4  shorts become viable imho


----------



## Mr J

Got to love the volume on the ES. If I start trading a decent size for an independent trader, it's going to be tempting to relocate to a more US-friendly timezone.


----------



## moXJO

Mr J said:


> Got to love the volume on the ES. If I start trading a decent size for an independent trader, it's going to be tempting to relocate to a more US-friendly timezone.




Yes, I have just started trading the US market, and there are some great percentage moves. The time difference is killing me though:crap:


----------



## Edwood

moXJO said:


> Yes, I have just started trading the US market, and there are some great percentage moves. The time difference is killing me though:crap:




European opens are a good alternative moX, usually enough movement in the first 90 mins and timing fits better for our side of the world


----------



## NAsX

Yeah I like the FTSE, good tick size of 10p, around $20 at the moment, and it sure moves especially the first hour of US opening!


----------



## Mr J

moXJO said:


> Yes, I have just started trading the US market, and there are some great percentage moves. The time difference is killing me though:crap:




Yeah, it's not great. I'm only doing it monday to thursday for the first couple of hours of their session. Check out the currency futures as well, they'll get some decent movement during European hours, occasionally even during our hours. I haven't looked at European indicies yet, the FTSE sounds like a good option. Anyone have experience with the DAX? 

I've also been meaning to check out the HSI and Nikkei. I assume liquidity is pretty decent here? How about the minis for the two?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Mr J said:


> Anyone have experience with the DAX?




I have been trading the DAX a fair bit on a demo account, seems to move pretty well around tea time here, but seems fairly consistent and easy enough to read most of the night for me....but I'm a 18-21 year old, so don't listen to me :


----------



## moXJO

Edwood said:


> European opens are a good alternative moX, usually enough movement in the first 90 mins and timing fits better for our side of the world




Thats a good idea, Have also been meaning to look at HSI and Nikkei. I know what I will end up doing though. Try and trade all the opens

I'm a bit scared to trade the ftse, as a relation once mooned the Queen and made all the papers. I just know the UK wants revenge on the family. At least I can blame MI6 for blowing up the account.


----------



## Mr J

ThingyMajiggy said:


> but I'm a 18-21 year old, so don't listen to me :




Not too worried about how it moves, just as long as it moves and has decent liquidity. I'm just looking for more opportunities, and the ability to trade at any time of day rather than 10-4. I'll be running my trading computer 24/5, so if I spot something I like from the couch or kitchen, I'm in .



> Thats a good idea, Have also been meaning to look at HSI and Nikkei




The Nikkei mini seems to require 28k margin at IB.


----------



## NAsX

For our timeframe, the HSI and Kopsi are pretty liquid contracts and good moves too. Also have a look at STW on the SGX, it's based on the Taiwan index but is in USD, also trades high volume. There's also a Nikkei futures on the SGX, seems to be a popular contract too, and it's free data from IB!

The CME FX futures are great when the Euro markets open, you can trade it all day long too but spreads are quite wide understandably. 

Anways, hope my  are of some help.


----------



## MRC & Co

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I have been trading the DAX a fair bit on a demo account, seems to move pretty well around tea time here, but seems fairly consistent and easy enough to read most of the night for me....but I'm a 18-21 year old, so don't listen to me :




The DAX, due to connection speed from Australia and particularly the competition amongst traders in it, would be a hard market to trade I think.

If I were you and have a decent read on it, I would go live ASAP, as the SIM would be almost pointless.  Your fills on a market with that speed (same as HSI), will be completely different.


----------



## Mr J

Disregard the nikkei comment, I forgot that the margin was listed in JPY .



> Anways, hope my  are of some help.




Always looking for markets, so I appreciate any heads up.


----------



## Mr J

What are the tick values for these markets?

HSI = 50HKD?
HSI mini = 10HKD?
FTSE = 5GBP?
SGXNK = 2500JPY?
SGXNK mini = 500JPY?
STW = 10USD?
N225 = 10000JPY
N225 mini = 1000JPY
KOSPI = ?

It will be interesting to watch these tomorrow. From the look of it, the mini's also get good volume.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kospi works out to about $27 AUD a tick


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J the Nikkei has about 1/4 the ATR as the SPI.

The Kospi about the same as the SPI.

The STW (Taiwan) I have seen do 20 ticks in a day, last couple of weeks its been going nuts but I don't expect it to last.

The HSI has about a 300 ATR but thats deceptive as its at 18,000 that still makes it about the same % move as the SPI each day.

What are you looking for in another market? the other Asian markets offer some great opportunities but its not larger day high-low ranges.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Not sure if Ivan's trade was based solely on an "over bought" indicator but they ain't now.

Would be good to see Ivans thinking about how you trade this. Was this a false signal? What is a false indicator signal? or is this the Divergence before the drop?

On linked thought whats the chance the Boyz are going to let this drop into end of fin year?


----------



## sammy84

Trembling Hand said:


> On linked thought whats the chance the Boyz are going to let this drop into end of fin year?




My thoughts exactly. Considering their track record of recent, they will keep this market propped for another 21 days exactly.


----------



## moXJO

SPI been knocking on heavens door for a bit, but still won't go back above 4000. Looking like it may have another try


----------



## beamstas

moXJO said:


> SPI been knocking on heavens door for a bit, but still won't go back above 4000. Looking like it may have another try




Trying...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone else noticed the almost doubling in SPI volume last 2 weeks 

Its not rollover because there has only been 2000 rolled into SEP. We are hitting near on 40,000 a day...... WTF??


----------



## moXJO

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone else noticed the almost doubling in SPI volume last 2 weeks
> 
> Its not rollover because there has only been 2000 rolled into SEP. We are hitting near on 40,000 a day...... WTF??




Ooops maybe I'm pressing the wrong buttons


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone else noticed the almost doubling in SPI volume last 2 weeks
> 
> Its not rollover because there has only been 2000 rolled into SEP. We are hitting near on 40,000 a day...... WTF??




TH,
Not sure how accurate my data is, this is the march contract, backfilled from IB.. daily bars






Is this accurate? Doesn't seem to be too much of an increase


----------



## moXJO

Run spi run


----------



## Mr J

Trembling Hand said:


> What are you looking for in another market? the other Asian markets offer some great opportunities but its not larger day high-low ranges.




Thanks for the info. Just liquid markets with decent trading ranges. They all look fine, apart from the Nikkei due to the 10pt and 5pt ticks, at least on my timescale.


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> TH,
> Is this accurate? Doesn't seem to be too much of an increase




thats because your data is rubbish.


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> thats because your data is rubbish.




So IB is innacurate? Where can i get accurate data?


----------



## Trembling Hand

beamstas said:


> So IB is inaccurate? Where can i get accurate data?




For volume yes. they only have 1/2 the data.

try esignals


----------



## beamstas

Trembling Hand said:


> For volume yes. they only have 1/2 the data.
> 
> try esignals




Cheers


----------



## sails

beamstas said:


> So IB is innacurate? Where can i get accurate data?




You can check it here on the ASX site:  http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/daily_monthly_reports.htm.  They keep the last five days.  Below is the info I have taken from the ASX site above (day futures) - it clearly shows the increases in volume in the last week or so.  

TH - didn't know that IB only use half the volume data    I'm assuming the ASX site has it right?


----------



## skc

What does it mean when someone slap 350 contracts at a price level - like there is now at 4049?

I hope the person doing this hasn't just place his order and gone to lunch!


----------



## skyQuake

Wow its not a spoof. 

Would have thought someone was trying to imitate the guy from 3950s


----------



## Mr J

Not the most interesting day for the SPI. Think it's worth having another thread for the other indices?


----------



## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> Not the most interesting day for the SPI. Think it's worth having another thread for the other indices?




Think it's worth shutting the SPI down.

It is a joke excuse for a national index. 

350 was probably just a profit taker, there was another one just above the high for the day.  Definately making it tough for the market to move higher, even in the face of strong figures.


----------



## beamstas

MRC & Co said:


> Think it's worth shutting the SPI down.
> 
> It is a joke excuse for a national index.
> 
> 350 was probably just a profit taker, there was another one just above the high for the day.  Definately making it tough for the market to move higher, even in the face of strong figures.




Yes lots of people around the 4050 level





Looks like it got chewed through in the end


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, but once it broke, it only went a few ticks higher before spotting another large order and stopping dead in it's track.  Pitiful.


----------



## Edwood

nice bottom kiss there, keeping an eye out for some follow-thru


----------



## Rockon2

Trend line from the 9th............


----------



## moXJO

Ivant you still in spi shorts?
*edit*Nvm read the blog


----------



## moXJO

Wow that was a big v looking reversal


----------



## moXJO

Any opinions on possible shorts coming up?


----------



## Edwood

moXJO said:


> Any opinions on possible shorts coming up?




worth watching rockon's tl


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> worth watching rockon's tl




Worth crackin a beer today rather than trading the SPI, it was another joke.


----------



## moXJO

I missed the 10:40 run up by stuffing round on entry, but caught a bit of the 11:30ish run down. Staying away from a longer timeframe short for the moment. Might wait for the test of the fabled 4100


----------



## ivant

moXJO said:


> Ivant you still in spi shorts?
> *edit*Nvm read the blog




yep lol. ive been adding so far. i havent visited for a while. 

brad, i bought the AUD back against the USD, and made a profit  Its funny how two people can play opposite directions, and both be right. All in the time-frames.


----------



## moXJO

Do cup and handle patterns still qualify on intra?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

You're adding to a losing position Ivan?


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> Worth crackin a beer today rather than trading the SPI, it was another joke.




lol & why not too, its Friday after all   Looking like its nearly cooked, just waiting for the tender time to pop


----------



## Cartman

ThingyMajiggy said:


> You're adding to a losing position Ivan?





Hey Sam --- not gona answer for Ivan as such, but its only a losing position when u r fully scaled in and yr stop gets hit ---- until that point u r simply buying/selling better value positions (assuming your analysis is correct of course  lol --- )

position sizing and scaling are a match made in heaven for savvy punters


----------



## Chris45

Isn't there a charting rule that says "old support becomes new resistance" or something like that? It will be interesting to see what happens now.


----------



## skyQuake

*gets into bear suit*

Question now is test and fail or false break and fail


----------



## MichaelD

Chris45 said:


> Isn't there a charting rule that says "old support becomes new resistance" or something like that? It will be interesting to see what happens now.




Why? All you have shown is a curve fitted line which by pure chance looks significant.

I've taken exactly the same chart and drawn a line which touches just as many data points as your line which "tells" an entirely different story.

(Not having a go at you - just offering a different perspective.)


----------



## Edwood

Chris45 said:


> Isn't there a charting rule that says "old support becomes new resistance" or something like that? It will be interesting to see what happens now.




good spot Chris, always useful to see what the bigger picture shows


----------



## Chris45

MichaelD said:


> I've taken exactly the same chart and drawn a line which touches just as many data points as your line which "tells" an entirely different story.



Michael, your line illustrates my point perfectly. (BTW, observe how parallel those two lines are - is that just coincidence?) These "lines" are not always perfect but your line effectively picked the lows during wave 3 and look what happened after we broke through your line in late '02. Support became resistance and we went down to the wave 4 Iraq War low which started the best wave 5 since the '82-'87 wave 5. My line connects the '91 corrective wave c with the '92 start of wave 1 and the '03 start of wave 5 so perhaps we will see a repeat of that now - one final spike down to complete this bear market and give us a perfect opportunity to go long with our ears pinned back. Then again ... maybe not, who knows? (Sorry about bringing Ralph's stuff into the discussion for all of you non-believers


----------



## Chris45

My Posting Rules say "You *may*  edit your posts" so where's the Edit button when I need it?
Please ignore the stupid : in my last post and apologies to anyone who was offended.


----------



## drsmith

I think you have 20 minutes to edit a post.

EDIT:
My bumpluck prediction is that it will drift south again soon, perhaps from sometime in July.


----------



## Rockon2

The Old Trend line break from the 9th, "Hey chief"  ( Thanks to Don Adams) 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykxfwjm8nAE&feature=related


----------



## Mr J

The trendline has acted as support, but the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> The trendline has acted as support, but the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.




Yes interesting times. I held some puts on Friday arvo for the first time since about Jan 08!!

Closed them on the close this arvo But wouldn't be surprised to see a break come Thursday. V.interesting point we are at. IMO

May have to change my "Stronger forever" tag


----------



## Cartman

Mr J said:


> the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.




agree ---- if i were holding short (which im not) in profit id be taking it b4 the middle of next week  and re- entering  around 15-16 July *if* it shapes up  ok ---- we havent even seen a decent failed double top yet for this cycle !! ---  

--- if we hit new highs after the end of July  i'll be even more confused than normal :dimbulb: lol  ----- 

now back to the important stuff like the next pivot high and subsequent low of the EUR/USD --- very interesting position


----------



## Rockon2

Mr J said:


> The trendline has acted as support, but the break itself doesn't mean anything. For all we know, this is just the next upwards wave. I would bet that many people go short on that break, only to find that the market seemingly reverses. Trend is up.




Hi Mr J ,, The original chart (same)  posted was on the 12th June. and it was 
in answer to a query from the live chat platform run by Ausie stock forums.
It was the only place i could stick a chart up quick at the time. and post the link into the chat room....

It is a 5 min chart,, and yes to me it was a sig to short, and i'm happy with the sell off thats occured.. $$ 

You are correct that in the longer term it means nothing..


----------



## Mr J

The problem with pretty much every chart is that it tells more than one story, so there's almost always more than one right answer, provided it is traded properly. There's the trendline break, the sell of a major pullback a little earlier, the possibility of a run to new highs a little later, the many smaller waves in between, and the smaller and larger waves that we can't see on that chart.



> if we hit new highs after the end of July i'll be even more confused than normal




I won't be confused, only because I don't even bother to think about it any longer. I don't really care why it moves, just as long as it moves. Like a croc waiting for the wildebeest to cross the river.


----------



## Real1ty

Mr J said:


> I don't really care why it moves, just as long as it moves.




Bingo!!


----------



## Chris45

Going down! It will be interesting to see if we get any trendline support at about 3780 on 22-23 June. If 4084 was the top we should punch through it and start heading lower. (Play the *suspense music*.)


----------



## MRC & Co

Contract Rollover = unusual price action.


----------



## Edwood

did someone kick the plug out?


----------



## Sean K

Edwood said:


> did someone kick the plug out?



Lemmings kicked it out.

Time for some investors to pick up some oversold stocks coming up.


----------



## Mr J

A nice 20 minutes of steady, upwards movement there. Good pyramiding for faster traders!


----------



## skc

Is anyone watching the SPI still awake? One truely needs to heed the way of the turtle with today's action.

Have a feeling that the SPI is due for a 3:30pm rally. Any thoughts?


----------



## Mr J

I foolishly took a late stab at the SPI just now - about 5 minutes before it fell apart. I wouldn't usually get into a wave that high, but I guess greed got the best of me. This one might break further.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Is anyone watching the SPI still awake? One truely needs to heed the way of the turtle with today's action.
> 
> Have a feeling that the SPI is due for a 3:30pm rally. Any thoughts?




Changed my mind. I based my feeling on the Nikke and DOW futures being quite strong. But something happened 5 minutes ago and there is no more strength there to lean on anymore.

Hopefully we have done enough falling today.


----------



## Gordon Gekko

skc said:


> Is anyone watching the SPI still awake? One truely needs to heed the way of the turtle with today's action.
> 
> Have a feeling that the SPI is due for a 3:30pm rally. Any thoughts?




I think we will see it close on the low


G


----------



## Mr J

Hope so, got on short at 3846 - hopefully it doesn't retrace too far.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Hope so, got on short at 3846 - hopefully it doesn't retrace too far.




Go ahead and tell me were ya stop is. I dare you.


----------



## Mr J

I suppose you think I'm about to be pushed out?

Edit, you were right, but I'd moved my stops.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> I suppose you think I'm about to be pushed out?
> 
> Edit, you were right, but I'd moved my stops.




 :nono:

:burn:


----------



## Mr J

I don't mess around getting greedy so far after the peak of a wave, TH.


----------



## skc

Retracement just ending here is my guess. 

Limit short at 3856, stop 3859


----------



## Mr J

Would seem so, but I'd prefer to give it a little more.


----------



## skc

3841 that will do


----------



## Mr J

Round 3 soon?


----------



## skc

Limit short 3861, stop at 3 pts.

Target 3850.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> Limit short 3861, stop at 3 pts.
> 
> Target 3850.




Bit late isnt it?


----------



## Mr J

I think he shorted on the way up and got stopped out soon after. London waking up.

Edit, late as in time...ah.


----------



## skyQuake

Mr J said:


> I think he shorted on the way up and got stopped out soon after. London waking up.
> 
> Edit, late as in time...ah.




Yeh i was looking at post time. 4:29 too late for a 3tick stop trade lol.

But prob traded it and posetd later


----------



## Mr J

There was a 3861 at 16:29. There appears to be another one, but it might not be reliable since I shut my feed off and IB/QT doesn't always correct it.


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Bit late isnt it?




Didn't get the order filled - too busy typing. 

Just as well though.


----------



## Mr J

A late drop would make for an easy trade. Will the market oblige?


----------



## sammy84

US job numbers out tonight. I have a feeling the result of this will finally give the market a direction one way or another. Well at least I hope it will, I'm sick of this spin cycle


----------



## skc

300 in the ask between 3798 to 3800...

Let's all hit them guys!!!

Seriously, I think they will break after 4pm...


----------



## ivant

Looks like I was right  Crude back around 62, sold off my shorts at 3720's, and the USD is picking up against the AUD.


----------



## moXJO

ivant said:


> Looks like I was right  Crude back around 62, sold off my shorts at 3720's, and the USD is picking up against the AUD.




How long have you been riding those shorts?


----------



## skyQuake

Whos in for a false break down followed by a sharp rally?

-Everyone punter and his dog are bearish
-People say reporting season must have some shockers
-Post window dressing will see the end of money flowing in
-H&S on the XJO and a few majors, potential breaks forming on many banks
-Just saw a CNBC segment about why you should sell now.


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> -People say reporting season must have some shockers




I actually thought sentiment was positive on the reporting season globally?


----------



## Gordon Gekko

I am of the opinion that the ASX should have had a 10% correction at these levels 6 weeks ago. But it was drivin higher on Speculation and false hope.
I think most people are not bearish but bullish but they have been waiting to buy on the dips or a 10% correction etc.
I think this will be the head fake that sucks the last of speculators in and by Sept at the latest we will retest the lows.

Happy to sit in cash and watch for now!!

My

G


----------



## skyQuake

MRC & Co said:


> I actually thought sentiment was positive on the reporting season globally?




Not sure about globally but a few brokers are saying "hold" instead of the usual "buy" or "strong buy"


----------



## ivant

I've been short for months, on and off. The last set has been on for about a month. But I have added shorts and sold them off, etc. 

I don't think we will break, I think 880 will hold on S&P for a little while. The bar for earnings in the US is so low, it will be a little too hard to have bad results. Regardless, my view is we will be looking at the earnings guides for next quarter. I am interested to see if 930 will hold resistance-wise. I am lightly long for now, and will short heavily at 930 again (3900-4000 SPI200 I think). I get the feeling there is going to be a lot of money put in the market at the current levels to create a false rally, and then break to the downside later in the year. I still see a retest of 750 in October and possibly 666 if we have a cold summer in the US.


----------



## Aussiest

ivant said:


> I've been short for months, on and off. The last set has been on for about a month. But I have added shorts and sold them off, etc.




Well done on the shorts Ivan.


----------



## sammy84

ivant said:


> Looks like I was right  Crude back around 62, sold off my shorts at 3720's, and the USD is picking up against the AUD.




What's your time frame on these trades on how tight is your stop? From memory crude has rallied quite a bit from when you said you entered your shorts. So you were also wrong if you were trading in a shorter time frame


----------



## moXJO

ivant said:


> I've been short for months, on and off. The last set has been on for about a month. But I have added shorts and sold them off, etc.
> .




Well done Ivant.


----------



## Sunder

We've had two days now of almost no movement.

Does this usually happen before a reversal, or before a break through support/resistance?

I've seen both, where we bounce off support a few times then break through it, and other times where we bounce off support a few times only to start a new rally.

Anyone know which is more common?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sunder said:


> We've had two days now of almost no movement.
> 
> Does this usually happen before a reversal, or before a break through support/resistance?
> 
> I've seen both, where we bounce off support a few times then break through it, and other times where we bounce off support a few times only to start a new rally.
> 
> Anyone know which is more common?




Flip your coin. 3 to 5 day clusters are a standard move and consolidate patten for the SPI (in fact most markets). not a bad way to filter trade positions as to whether we are range bound or moving to a new 'value' area.

This is cash hour only moves.


----------



## Chris45

This still looks pretty bearish to me.
Yellow is XJO
Cyan is Sep SPI


----------



## Trembling Hand

Chris45 said:


> This still looks pretty bearish to me.
> Yellow is XJO
> Cyan is Sep SPI



 divs diff between two contracts


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> divs diff between two contracts




Did some calcs, doesn't seem to be 30pts worth of divs. Not sure wuts going on lol


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Did some calcs, doesn't seem to be 30pts worth of divs. Not sure wuts going on lol




Did u include interest rate to expiry?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Did some calcs, doesn't seem to be 30pts worth of divs. Not sure wuts going on lol




Ha! Was just wasting time doing that now. 30 points is 0.8% looks like we have a lot of the big caps paying divs and based on what the ASX200 is yielding??  

Not that far off.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> 3 to 5 day clusters are a standard move and consolidate patten for the SPI (in fact most markets). not a bad way to filter trade positions as to whether we are range bound or moving to a new 'value' area.




Interesting.

Thx.


----------



## Rockon2

IG mkts 5 min


----------



## skyQuake

fls brkkkkk


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Watching the SPI properly now, is this serious? Is it usually this quiet? Like watching grass grow....

Where is all the action?


----------



## Mr J

I would agree with you if a 20 point move didn't occur before your post.


----------



## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Watching the SPI properly now, is this serious? Is it usually this quiet? Like watching grass grow....
> 
> Where is all the action?




Most of the action you see is just TH and MRC trading with each other.

There is not another single SPI trader in Australia.


----------



## Mr J

Hope they're not paying $10 commissions per contract!


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Most of the action you see is just TH and MRC trading with each other.
> 
> There is not another single SPI trader in Australia.




Ha! It must be MRC crossing with himself. I've all but forgotten about the SPI. (actually I think its just a bot taking each side of 99% of trades just to give the illusion of a functioning market ) 

HSI , Kospi, STW is where its at.


----------



## Aussiest

skc said:


> Most of the action you see is just TH and MRC trading with each other.
> 
> There is not another single SPI trader in Australia.




Just in relation to the "lack of action", TH and MRC, would you consider trading the S&P500? Just curious . Is it the hours that put you off?

Edit: TH, you've partially answered my question. Just curious as to why people from Aust. might choose instruments other than the S&P500. Thought it might have been the hours.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Mr J said:


> I would agree with you if a 20 point move didn't occur before your post.




Heh.....well done then for catching that 20 point move. At my skill level I didn't see any entries and hence wondered if it always acts like a dead fish, I'm used to the US though, still, thought there might be a tad more action  

Had a 10 point move back down too, you must be having a good day :


----------



## cutz

Trembling Hand said:


> HSI , Kospi, STW is where its at.




Hi TH, 

With regard to STW ( if you're trading it), is there much in the way of shorting availability.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! It must be MRC crossing with himself. I've all but forgotten about the SPI. (actually I think its just a bot taking each side of 99% of trades just to give the illusion of a functioning market )
> 
> HSI , Kospi, STW is where its at.





HSI as in this?? Or am I lookin at the wrong thing?


----------



## Trembling Hand

cutz said:


> Hi TH,
> 
> With regard to STW ( if you're trading it), is there much in the way of shorting availability.



 not sure if you are thinking what I'm thinking. STW is the Taiwan index fut on the Singapore exchange.



ThingyMajiggy said:


> HSI as in this?? Or am I lookin at the wrong thing?



No. Honkers have 1 month contracts like commodities.


----------



## Mr J

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Heh.....well done then for catching that 20 point move. At my skill level I didn't see any entries and hence wondered if it always acts like a dead fish, I'm used to the US though, still, thought there might be a tad more action
> 
> Had a 10 point move back down too, you must be having a good day :




Might be our timescales. I trade a fast chart, so there were about half a dozen possible entries (I didn't take them all, never do). As for the move down, STW has been far larger and smoother. As said before, STW rocks, apart from the higher commissions.


----------



## cutz

Trembling Hand said:


> not sure if you are thinking what I'm thinking. STW is the Taiwan index fut on the Singapore exchange.




Ah ha,

Sorry i thought you were talking about the ASX 200 ETF.


----------



## Mr J

What happened with the STW? Over 110 tick drop there. Beautiful stuff!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Ahhh OK that explains it, was gonna say...you must be one nuts trader to trade that haha  

I watch 5m+ Mr J, noticed a short from the top, thats all I spotted though.


----------



## Mr J

That would explain it - noise to you is often beautiful to me. That STW move was beautiful for any intra-day trader though. Dropped 5% in an hour, I thought perhaps the GFC was starting to kick in :.


----------



## skc

Mr J said:


> What happened with the STW? Over 110 tick drop there. Beautiful stuff!




The whole asia just tanked... SPI seems a bit slower, possible good short to be had.


----------



## Mr J

skc said:


> The whole asia just tanked... SPI seems a bit slower, possible good short to be had.




There were 9 entries for me on my chart. Unfortunately I didn't open the STW until half-way though, I forgot there were other markets until TH mentioned it. Kicking myself, though half is better than none.


----------



## Mr J

Just had to post the chart. Nothing but lower lows and lower highs. Excellent pyramiding opportunity, a few hundred ticks worth there (at $10 US per tick per contract). Yes, thousands, even tens of thousands were available.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> What happened with the STW? Over 110 tick drop there. Beautiful stuff!




Boring!! Have a look at the HSI 450 ticks in 2 minutes, for F sake


----------



## Mr J

Yes, but the HSI was closed for most of it! I prefer the STW's relatively slow trickle down. More entries, more precise, and just as large a move.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Yes, but the HSI was closed for most of it!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Yeah saw that TH, flippin nuts! looks a little more interesting now I'm on the right month


----------



## Mr J

Meaning that at the open it had to play catch up, which equals a very fast large drop. Not nearly as tradable for me as it would be over an hour.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Meaning that at the open it had to play catch up, which equals a very fast large drop. Not nearly as tradable for me as it would be over an hour.




Nah mate it was 21 minutes AFTER it opened.


----------



## Mr J

Was too. I wasn't watching it.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> I've all but forgotten about the SPI. (actually I think its just a bot taking




lol, agreed.

I don't even look at SPI really anymore.

To answer your question Aussiest, be careful about S&P intraday trading, it is very choppy and then even when it trends, it just goes hard (doesn't pull back well to let you on board) and it isn't unusual for it to then come back and turn the entire trend back on it's head later in the session.  That being said, those hours don't problem me, as I now pretty much trade in Euro/US sessions, a tiny bit of EUR/USD but mainly Crude oil.


----------



## Mr J

I don't mind the SPI on a 1-range chart. Anything else and it just doesn't provide many opportunities. ES is awesome really, and if the hours weren't horrible (for me), I'd trade that and that alone.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Mr J said:


> I don't mind the SPI on a 1-range chart. Anything else and it just doesn't provide many opportunities. ES is awesome really, and if the hours weren't horrible (for me), I'd trade that and that alone.




Agreed, I love the ES, opens @ 11 here so its not so bad, can usually catch a move or two in before my eyes start bleeding.


----------



## Mr J

An hour to go before the ES. Chances are I'll be distracted though, and won't make my way back on until midnight, at which point I'll probably say why bother .

That STW drop by the way could have been pyramided over 110 ticks of 9 entries. Say 400 ticks profit overall, enough to achieve an 50%+ return in a single day. Most would love that over a few years .


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Mr J said:


> An hour to go before the ES. Chances are I'll be distracted though, and won't make my way back on until midnight, at which point I'll probably say why bother .
> 
> That STW drop by the way could have been pyramided over 110 ticks of 9 entries. Say 400 ticks profit overall, enough to achieve an 50%+ return in a single day. Most would love that over a few years .





Yeah, ES has been sailing up nicely. 

Yeah *could* be.....its the actually doing it live thats the hard part for me  Gotta love days/opportunities like that though


----------



## Mr J

That would obviously be a perrfect result, getting all entries and holding on. Obviously it's rarely going to be that efficient in real-time, but even a fraction of that is an excellent result. If we can manage to trade it perfectly, that's weeks to months of profit achieved in just an hour. The profit potential of trading is extraordinary. STW as well, so we know it could have been ridden for far larger than the SPI.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL!!

Another one of those 400 tick HSI sweeps in an instant. Friggin bracket orders  taking 30 when there is 400 on offer 

Maybe we should start an Asian futs thread?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL!!
> 
> Another one of those 400 tick HSI sweeps in an instant. Friggin bracket orders  taking 30 when there is 400 on offer
> 
> Maybe we should start an Asian futs thread?





Haha bummer! Yep I'm up for an asian futs thread.


----------



## Mr J

There is a thread for international indices a few threads below this one. I can also talk about my FTSE gambling there .


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

hey TH....quick question....do you do market orders or limit? noticed before you said about the bracket order...you got this set automatically with booktrader? would have thought it would take too long otherwise to fiddle around with that stuff whilst scalping?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> hey TH....quick question....do you do market orders or limit? noticed before you said about the bracket order...you got this set automatically with booktrader? would have thought it would take too long otherwise to fiddle around with that stuff whilst scalping?




Never do market orders. They are toxic to profitability FULL STOP.:frown:

Yep bracket orders are auto.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Never do market orders. They are toxic to profitability FULL STOP.:frown:
> 
> Yep bracket orders are auto.





wow..you got the limit order set to an automatic distance from the mkt or you enter it manually each time with auto stop/tp? how fast do you wanna be!? 

...I have been using mkt orders, still trying to get my head around all the stuff one can do in booktrader, making your own buttons etc with auto everything...thanks btw


----------



## Mr J

Auto settings are a complete pain in booktrader if you're trading multiple markets. 

I'll often enter on a stop limit order, exit on a limit when I can, but often get stopped out first (I move it up aggressively).


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Auto settings are a complete pain in booktrader if you're trading multiple markets.




Booktraders is useless not only if you trade say HSI and STW becasue of the points diff but also if you trade more than 1 contract.

I use ninja trader. Massively more customisable. Have a look,


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL!!
> 
> Another one of those 400 tick HSI sweeps in an instant. Friggin bracket orders  taking 30 when there is 400 on offer




Yeh, looks like some panic in Asia today (well yesterday now it's past midnight).  They sold it off on Monday in anticipation of a break down, then they got owned over-night and panicked out with strong expectations of Goldman (even poor ZEW and industrial production from Europe wouldn't keep the markets down).  

But we ended with a buy the rumour sell the fact situation.  Poor Asian instos are getting spun on their heads in this chop by the looks.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, looks like some panic in Asia today (well yesterday now it's past midnight).  They sold it off on Monday in anticipation of a break down, then they got owned over-night and panicked out with strong expectations of Goldman (even poor ZEW and industrial production from Europe wouldn't keep the.




I think its got more to do with the correctly position pushing everyone off side. I mean who the hell would hit at market on a 1000 lot just to cover?? And that was what they were!!!!

They pretty much happen around the month high/lows, where all the stops are to farm. Todays was unusual but still it pushed the shorts over the 5 day high and mid month level. sure woulda hurt if you were short!!:angry:


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, my guess would be a panick out and it caused stops to be triggered. 

But you may be right, it may have just been stop searching.  If so though, I have a feeling it would have traded downwards after settling, not back up.....


----------



## Edwood

speaking of spikes intc just caused a Dow spike to 8800 with IG & high 8700's with CMC after the close.  intc results exceeded expectations.  perhaps the focus was put on GS news as a smokescreen for the main event


----------



## Trembling Hand

Chris45 said:


> This still looks pretty bearish to me.






skyQuake said:


> Did some calcs, doesn't seem to be 30pts worth of divs. Not sure wuts going on lol




Whatever its from (SPI v XJO diff) its not much of a leading indicator. Not this time


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Whatever its from (SPI v XJO diff) its not much of a leading indicator. Not this time




rofl... you would have been pretty burnt looking at that indicator!
_
False brk down then sharp rally up _


----------



## skyQuake

Also, is anyone else worried about that gap @ 3800?


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Also, is anyone else worried about that gap @ 3800?




Some bad China GDP data and we will be there this afternoon!

China may fudge their data to get better iron ore prices... who knows.


----------



## skyQuake

Some chinese reports are already coming out +7.9 as opposed to +7.8

Also my contact in china (read: fisherman on the yangtze) thinks its a lot higher


----------



## Chris45

Trembling Hand said:


> Whatever its from (SPI v XJO diff) its not much of a leading indicator. Not this time



Certainly not for short term day traders, the bears got burnt!      Maybe a different story for long term investors.

The recent rise is similar to the one in early June, but since 12-June, XJO volume has been declining and today the SPI is still trading at a significant discount to the XJO.

What's your explanation for that?


----------



## skyQuake

Chris45 said:


> Certainly not for short term day traders, the bears got burnt!      Maybe a different story for long term investors.
> 
> The recent rise is similar to the one in early June, but since 12-June, XJO volume has been declining and today the SPI is still trading at a significant discount to the XJO.
> 
> What's your explanation for that?




Divs, capital returns, kinda of balances out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Chris45 said:


> Certainly not for short term day traders, the bears got burnt!      Maybe a different story for long term investors.



I think you have that completely the wrong way round mate. A daytrader wouldn't give a toss. Its the long term holders that it has off sided. The bears are all but 1 or 2 days of the last 9 months are now taking it in the neck. 



Chris45 said:


> The recent rise is similar to the one in early June, but since 12-June, XJO volume has been declining



 The volume picked up from Jan this year peaking at the end of June. A two week drop is hardly significant and if it was its still contradicting you. Its been a low volume pull back.


Chris45 said:


> today the SPI is still trading at a significant discount to the XJO.
> 
> What's your explanation for that?



 Bit of confirmation bias here I think. We have given the MOST plausible explanation for the discount, divs & cap raising, but looks like you want to ignore that.

Maybe the open today will be the high for the next year, its possible, just don't think that your lower SPI to the XJO would be the reason considering the other explanations. A bit of the throwing a virgin in the volcano effect if a new bear starts today.

IMO. 

Whats your?


----------



## Chris45

Trembling Hand said:


> A daytrader wouldn't give a toss.



Fair enough. Maybe "short term day traders" wasn't the correct term. I was just going by the number of posts I've read recently elsewhere by people looking to go short and presumably then being stopped out. I'm not a day trader.

I didn't quite understand skyQuake's explanation of the SPI discount re dividends and capital raising, so could you please expand on that?

And, what's your view of market direction over the next few months? Are you of the opinion that March was the bottom and we are now in a new bull market? If so, how high do you think this current move will go before we see a significant retracement?

For what it's worth (probably 0) this current upmove seems to me to be running out of steam and may peak at around 4150-70.

Then again, we could be in a move similar to that in May-88 which could rise to 4650ish.

What do you think?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Chris45 said:


> I didn't quite understand skyQuake's explanation of the SPI discount re dividends and capital raising, so could you please expand on that?




 If you are going to use an indicator would it not be a good idea to find out what the hell it is and how it works??

Futs don't pay divs the index does. Shares in the index will go ex-div bringing down the value of the index as the three months pass to align with the futs, by late Sep they will be the same.

Been bullish since early March. Not so bullish now but not yet Bearish.


----------



## skyQuake

I think after today's performance it should be shut down for good. 

For crying out loud Night SPI is almost better than this...


----------



## Chris45

Trembling Hand said:


> If you are going to use an indicator would it not be a good idea to find out what the hell it is and how it works??



Wow! What an angry sounding reply.  Sorry for daring to speak.


----------



## skc

Chris45 said:


> Wow! What an angry sounding reply.  Sorry for daring to speak.




LOL. You take the numerical value of SPI and compare that to the XJO. The relationship between cash and futures is very basic finance. 



Trembling Hand said:


> If you are going to use an indicator would it not be a good idea to find out what the hell it is and how it works??




Chris, and if you are going to engage in a thread with someone, it would be a good idea to find out how they normally reply! You should be gratefull that TH actually provided a response. He normally would just leave it at that.


----------



## Mr J

TH is blunt, consider it tough love or something.


----------



## Chris45

Thanks skc and Mr J. With great hesitation I’ll try engaging again and pray that I don’t end up like Monty Python’s Black Knight.

I traded the SPI for a while some years ago and I understand that futures price = cash price + cost of carry + sentiment factor (which is why the SPI usually trades at a premium to the XJO) and that futures don’t pay dividends.

I’m afraid Trembling Hand and skyQuake’s replies to my initial post were a bit short on detail for me to fully understand how dividends and capital returns/raisings explained the current SPI discount. I assumed that was the sentiment factor at play.

OK, so the Fair Value formula is F = S(1+(r-d)) where F is the current fair value of the SPI, S is the current XJO price, r is the 90 day bank bill rate and d is the XJO dividend yield. The SPI usually trades at a premium but if I suppose if r =3.2% and d=6.7% then that would explain why F<S but can someone please explain how to calculate the correct values of r and d so as to get a sensible value for F?

If the futures market were bullish I would have thought the sentiment factor might have canceled out the discount somewhat.

How do capital returns/raisings affect the calculation? Aren’t they already factored into the share prices and therefore the XJO?


----------



## skyQuake

Chris45 said:


> Thanks skc and Mr J. With great hesitation I’ll try engaging again and pray that I don’t end up like Monty Python’s Black Knight.
> 
> I traded the SPI for a while some years ago and I understand that futures price = cash price + cost of carry + sentiment factor (which is why the SPI usually trades at a premium to the XJO) and that futures don’t pay dividends.
> 
> I’m afraid Trembling Hand and skyQuake’s replies to my initial post were a bit short on detail for me to fully understand how dividends and capital returns/raisings explained the current SPI discount. I assumed that was the sentiment factor at play.
> 
> OK, so the Fair Value formula is F = S(1+(r-d)) where F is the current fair value of the SPI, S is the current XJO price, r is the 90 day bank bill rate and d is the XJO dividend yield. The SPI usually trades at a premium but if I suppose if r =3.2% and d=6.7% then that would explain why F<S but can someone please explain how to calculate the correct values of r and d so as to get a sensible value for F?
> 
> If the futures market were bullish I would have thought the sentiment factor might have canceled out the discount somewhat.
> 
> How do capital returns/raisings affect the calculation? Aren’t they already factored into the share prices and therefore the XJO?




While F = S(1+(r-d)) is correct in theory, r = div yield over the entire YEAR. Craploads of companies are going ex-div before Sep SPI expires. Lots of banks and stuff going ex-div before sept. Note that most of them are yielding like 5% (cause prices got smashed so bad) so it'll make a dent on the market. 
Lots of cap raisings after June have not been taken into effect as S&P rebals ever quarter. Minor effect on the index now.

35 odd point difference is a bit much but i suppose there is the 'risk' of getting into SPI now with the market thin like paper and bots screwing things up.

If you really wanna try it, Just short IG Cash Index and Long SPI. 

Cheers


----------



## Bobby

Chris45 said:


> Thanks skc and Mr J. With great hesitation I’ll try engaging again and pray that I don’t end up like Monty Python’s Black Knight.




Chris, are you considering index CFDs ?

 Bucket shop buy/sell quotes are delayed enough for a finger touch advantage .

Don't ask me the formula please "


----------



## acouch

Chris45 said:


> Thanks skc and Mr J. With great hesitation I’ll try engaging again and pray that I don’t end up like Monty Python’s Black Knight.
> 
> I traded the SPI for a while some years ago and I understand that futures price = cash price + cost of carry + sentiment factor (which is why the SPI usually trades at a premium to the XJO) and that futures don’t pay dividends.
> 
> I’m afraid Trembling Hand and skyQuake’s replies to my initial post were a bit short on detail for me to fully understand how dividends and capital returns/raisings explained the current SPI discount. I assumed that was the sentiment factor at play.
> 
> OK, so the Fair Value formula is F = S(1+(r-d)) where F is the current fair value of the SPI, S is the current XJO price, r is the 90 day bank bill rate and d is the XJO dividend yield. The SPI usually trades at a premium but if I suppose if r =3.2% and d=6.7% then that would explain why F<S but can someone please explain how to calculate the correct values of r and d so as to get a sensible value for F?
> 
> If the futures market were bullish I would have thought the sentiment factor might have canceled out the discount somewhat.
> 
> How do capital returns/raisings affect the calculation? Aren’t they already factored into the share prices and therefore the XJO?




Hi Chris,
I usally  don't get involved in this stuff..

dont read to much into anything..just trade your chart..
i trade a 5 tic chart.. trade what you see..
eod you are out there to make money..name of the game..
why look for things that wont help your trading ability..
eod i am out of all trades and sleep well..tomorrow is another day..
this deep thinking does nothing to help your trading..just think of it as playing poker..
if you get a bad hand you fold..if not you play the game..simple as that
have a great weekend and take care out there 
ac

ps..eveyone looks for the magic wand..there is no magic wand it depends on your ability..eod


----------



## Bobby

acouch said:


> i trade a 5 tic chart.. trade what you see..
> eod you are out there to make money..name of the game..
> why look for things that wont help your trading ability..
> eod i am out of all trades and sleep well..tomorrow is another day..
> this deep thinking does nothing to help your trading..just think of it as playing poker..
> 
> ps..eveyone looks for the magic wand..there is no magic wand it depends on your ability..eod




Just gotta ask were you get your direction from ?
Hope its not the trend


----------



## Chris45

Thanks for your replies everyone.

skyQuake, using data for 16-July, I get F = 3995.6*(1+(0.032-0.067)*(2/12)) = 3972.
The SPI closed at 3974 so I think that now explains the discount. Problem solved.

Bobby and acouch, after developing a pretty good understanding of the “zero sum game” from playing around with individual shares, then futures, then futures options over the last 20 yrs, I’m now a long term index fund investor rather than a derivatives trader. I went to 100% cash in mid ’07 and am now looking for ideas about the future direction of the market so I can reinvest. I was thinking of buying IQs via CommSec when the time was right, as a precursor to switching funds, but haven’t played with them yet. Have you had any experience with them? Is there sufficient liquidity to make them worthwhile?


----------



## skc

Chris45 said:


> Thanks for your replies everyone.
> 
> skyQuake, using data for 16-July, I get F = 3995.6*(1+(0.032-0.067)*(2/12)) = 3972.
> The SPI closed at 3974 so I think that now explains the discount. Problem solved.




As Skyquake pointed out, dividends are slightly concentrated in this quarter so the div drop off for the Sept contract might be closer to 2%. This makes the calculation 3995.6 x (1 + 0.032*(2/12)-0.02) = 3937.

To use better terminology... the fair value of SPI is 3937. Given the SPI is actually 30 points or so less than XJO at 3965, it is actually trading at a _premium _to the fair value. 



skyQuake said:


> 35 odd point difference is a bit much but i suppose there is the 'risk' of getting into SPI now with the market thin like paper and bots screwing things up.
> 
> If you really wanna try it, Just short IG Cash Index and Long SPI.




Based on the above you actually want to long IG cash index and short the SPI.

But I can tell you now it won't work very well. For starters the interest you pay with IG is closer to 6% so that negates about 20 points from any premium there may be. Plus a bit of spread and slip of fingers, you might be able to clear 2-3 points. Hardly worthwhile over 2 months. 

Sure you can do this with 100 contracts... if your account is big enough


----------



## Chris45

skc said:


> As Skyquake pointed out, dividends are slightly concentrated in this quarter so the *div drop off for the Sept contract* might be closer to 2%.



OK, I think I’m starting to understand this now, although still a bit confused by your terminology. (Really need an arb to confirm these calculations.)
So, are you suggesting that instead of using d=6.7%pa we should use d=4.7%pa for the Sep contract calculation?

If so, then since *both* r and d have to be adjusted for the time to expiry, that should give:
F = 3995.6*(1+(0.032-0.047)*(2/12)) = 3986
So on 16-Jul, the sentiment factor was (SPI Close - Fair Value) =  (3974-3986) = -12 .....  ie a bearish discount. Yes???

If not, what value should we use for the anticipated dividend yield (as %pa) for the Sep contract calculation?


----------



## skc

Chris45 said:


> OK, I think I’m starting to understand this now, although still a bit confused by your terminology. (Really need an arb to confirm these calculations.)
> So, are you suggesting that instead of using d=6.7%pa we should use d=4.7%pa for the Sep contract calculation?
> 
> If so, then since *both* r and d have to be adjusted for the time to expiry, that should give:
> F = 3995.6*(1+(0.032-0.047)*(2/12)) = 3986
> So on 16-Jul, the sentiment factor was (SPI Close - Fair Value) =  (3974-3986) = -12 .....  ie a bearish discount. Yes???
> 
> If not, what value should we use for the anticipated dividend yield (as %pa) for the Sep contract calculation?




You don't need to worry about the div yield as %pa. You simply work out the total dividend drop off as a percentage of the XJO until expiry. Just pluck that number into the formula without annualising it. 

F = Cash * (1+r*(time to expirary)-Total dividend drop off). 

In your calculation you have used 4.7%p.a. and then multiplied by 2/12 which is too small a number. 

If you really want an exact answer, you need to work it bottom-up. Just take the top 20 companies, look at the ex-div date and amount, and calculate how many points it translate to compared to the current share price.

E.g. (numbers not real)

Total market cap of XJO ~ $900B
BHP market cap ~$120B
BHP ex-div 15 Aug (so within SPI expiry)
BHP current price $30
BHP next div expects to be ~$0.5 ($0.5/$30 = 1.67%)
BHP's impact on SPI = 1.67% * ($120B / $900B) = 0.13%
Expressed in points = 4000 (XJO price now) x 0.13% = 5.3 points

Do that to top 20, and scale up a bit and you would be pretty close. PM me the answer if you did do it


----------



## Chris45

Thanks. I'll give it a go.


----------



## skyQuake

Chris45 said:


> Thanks. I'll give it a go.




No dont! Trust me on that. Spent many hours, got inconclusive answer. 
Not all companies in the ASX 200 have 100% weighting. For example, RIO is weighted at 90% according to S&P.
IWF (investable weight factor) for most companies are 100%, but can be quite low for some others.
And with BHP, RIO; its dual listed, so you gotta be sure you get the AUS market cap figure... Can of worms imo.

Hedging is problematic, as SKC said, the interest charged is quite high on IG cash contracts.


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> No dont! Trust me on that. Spent many hours, got inconclusive answer.
> Not all companies in the ASX 200 have 100% weighting. For example, RIO is weighted at 90% according to S&P.
> IWF (investable weight factor) for most companies are 100%, but can be quite low for some others.
> And with BHP, RIO; its dual listed, so you gotta be sure you get the AUS market cap figure... Can of worms imo.
> 
> Hedging is problematic, as SKC said, the interest charged is quite high on IG cash contracts.




I did it for the Mar and Jun contracts for all top 200 companies (for several different purposes). It worked reasonably well - but your answer probably has a margin of +/- 2 to 5 points. This means you can only pick out substantial discount / premium when it happens.

BTW, to make the numbers useful you will also need to do it on a daily basis. As the div drop off and the interest remaining changes everyday. So the fair value of SPI may be 30 points less than XJO today, but 27 points less than XJO next week, after NAB goes ex-div for example.


----------



## Chris45

skyQuake said:


> No dont! Trust me on that. Spent many hours, got inconclusive answer.



Aaahh! OK, I've already spent a few hours searching for and playing around with data and thinking about how I was going approach it so, given the uncertainty, I might just take your advice here, thanks. Now I've got the Fair Value formula figured out, maybe an occasional look at it will suffice for my purposes.



skc said:


> BTW, to make the numbers useful you will also need to do it on a daily basis.



Sounds like a lot of work. Thanks anyway and I do appreciate the time you've taken to help me out with this.   

However, I didn't get an answer to my question about the ASX IQs, so maybe no one here has used them.


----------



## Sunder

Chris45 said:


> I was thinking of buying IQs via CommSec when the time was right, as a precursor to switching funds, but haven’t played with them yet. Have you had any experience with them? Is there sufficient liquidity to make them worthwhile?




IQ is provided by the ASX, and has a very thin spread. It is marked very closely to the real value of the XJO, (except of course, during pre-open etc). 

There are always bids and offers within 5 points of XJO, but I'm not sure what happens if someone depletes one side too heavily. (Usually around 20-50 contracts within 5 points, then more at greater spreads. I always thought they were "real" bids and offers as opposed to those put there by the ASX to create liquidity)

I use them, and while I have been smashed around a bit lately, it's not due to the vehicle... More like a poor driver


----------



## ivant

This thread discussion is becoming indicative of the actual underlying market. This is what a bull market feels like 24/7


----------



## nomore4s

ivant said:


> This is what a bull market feels like 24/7






I didn't realise we were in a bullmarket.


----------



## ivant

nomore4s said:


> I didn't realise we were in a bullmarket.




Lol I don't think we are. Some people think it is. But this is what a bull market does. Volatility dries up..


----------



## Real1ty

ivant said:


> Lol I don't think we are. Some people think it is. But this is what a bull market does. Volatility dries up..




And Bull Markets "climb a wall of worry".

Look at all the threads and there are calls everywhere for the next leg down and there has been for months.

I suppose at least the end of the world posts have dried up but still plenty of worry out there.

One thing i find interesting is many who think we can continue to go higher, of which i am one, at least realise the possibility of a descent retracement yet a lot of the bears can only see one direction.


----------



## Mr J

Real1ty said:


> One thing i find interesting is many who think we can continue to go higher, of which i am one, at least realise the possibility of a descent retracement yet a lot of the bears can only see one direction.




You're not comparing equivalent positions. Here's your comment with a few words changed:



> One thing i find interesting is many who think we can continue to go *lower*, of which i am one, at least realise the possibility of a *continued rise* yet a lot of the *bulls* can only see one direction.




The fact is that there are bears and bulls that see only one direction, and bear and bulls who allow for the possibility of a decent move in the other direction. There are also those who don't care or don't have an opinion.


----------



## Real1ty

Mr J said:


> You're not comparing equivalent positions. Here's your comment with a few words changed:
> 
> 
> 
> The fact is that there are bears and bulls that see only one direction, and bear and bulls who allow for the possibility of a decent move in the other direction. There are also those who don't care or don't have an opinion.




I am calling it as i see it.

There are many more bears calling for a leg down than there are bulls claiming this will continue to rise. Of course there are probably more in the middle that are not all that sure and that it really doesn't matter to them either.

As i said, most of the bulls i have noticed are not as dogmatic as the bears.A lot of bears have one eye and it is pointed in one direction only.

Feel free to prove me wrong with multiple bull quotes if you like.


----------



## Mr J

> There are many more bears calling for a leg down than there are bulls claiming this will continue to rise.




Perhaps, but that can be explained that there just seem to be many more bears in general - particularly when considering market participants and not economists and analyists. Many believe there must be at least a correction of the rally, and the longer it lasts, the greater it is needed. This is why they may be focused more on one direction. From I've seen of the bulls, many don't seem to be considering a correction, but assume we're back on the way up. Neither side seems particularly open right now. 

Personally, I have no idea what is going on. The rise does not bring 'balance' in my view, so I would be bearish, but I became neutral a couple of months ago. Every time it seems ready to fall down, it breaks up to new highs. Just makes me glad I focus on shorterm movement.


----------



## jersey10

seems there is quite some support at the high 4250s, wonder if it will hold??


----------



## skyQuake

jersey10 said:


> seems there is quite some support at the high 4250s, wonder if it will hold??




Could be spoofs, lets see if they pull when prices get there.


----------



## jersey10

thats what i thought but they have been there all day and have been tested 3 times now


----------



## jersey10

right on cue


----------



## skyQuake

jersey10 said:


> thats what i thought but they have been there all day and have been tested 3 times now




Don't worry, TH will have to hit them. His Guru status is at risk :

EDIT: HA! Speaking of the devil!


----------



## beamstas

He's probably short 2000 contracts just to keep his guru status alive


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Don't worry, TH will have to hit them. His Guru status is at risk :
> 
> EDIT: HA! Speaking of the devil!




I melted that spoofter.


----------



## skyQuake

beamstas said:


> He's probably short 2000 contracts just to keep his guru status alive




Frontrun that!



Trembling Hand said:


> I melted that spoofter.



Do that more often please!
Bring the SPI back to life


----------



## Aussiest

What is going on with commodities (gold & oil) and the S&P500? It's going nuts.


----------



## Naked shorts

Aussiest said:


> What is going on with commodities (gold & oil) and the S&P500? It's going nuts.




Deflation (or not so hyperinflation) sentiment in the US is showing its head. US Treasuries are are hitting highs as well.


----------



## jersey10

some big lots on the bid this morning, will have to get the spoofometer out soon


----------



## skyQuake

jersey10 said:


> some big lots on the bid this morning, will have to get the *spoofometer *out soon




I would pay HANDSOMELY for such a device...


----------



## moXJO

Anyone watching it today?


----------



## cutz

Yep i am ,

Is it normal to see the bids/ask scattered all over the price ladder ?, i was always under the impression that the front month was always pretty tight, it looks like the night session.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cutz said:


> Yep i am ,
> 
> Is it normal to see the bids/ask scattered all over the price ladder ?, i was always under the impression that the front month was always pretty tight, it looks like the night session.




What you looking at? tight as tight from this end.


----------



## cutz

Oops, 

Bit of finger trouble, actually playing around with the dec contract.

Just fixed it up, thank god for ASF.


----------



## Trembling Hand

By the way what happened to our your young maverick? He's not updating his blog. Last I remember he was a little underwater on a small short?


----------



## moXJO

Trembling Hand said:


> By the way what happened to our your young maverick? His not updating his blog. Last I remember he was a little underwater on a small short?




Must have taken a break after the hit


----------



## prawn_86

Yeh he said he was heavily short at 4000, not sure when/if he covered them.

Shame to see all that money go to waste...


----------



## johnnyg

Easy Come Easy Go?


----------



## moXJO

prawn_86 said:


> Yeh he said he was heavily short at 4000, not sure when/if he covered them.
> 
> Shame to see all that money go to waste...




He did mention he closed out on the xao thread(pretty big loss). Can't remember how far the market was up at the time.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Was yesterdays volume 5629 or is my data skew wiff??


----------



## cutz

Hi,

Another noob question here,

When do you guys normally roll your contracts, the morning of expiry day (next thursday) or the day before ?


----------



## Bronte

Hi cutz,
We change when the volume changes.

Sam,
Yesterdays SPI volume was: 29,133

SFE presently closed; having: "Technical Problems....This is Street Wide"


----------



## cutz

Bronte said:


> Hi cutz,
> We change when the volume changes.




Gotcha Bronte,

I notice Dec. is starting to come alive.


----------



## skyQuake

Bronte said:


> SFE presently closed; having: "Technical Problems....This is Street Wide"




ta, thought i was looking at the wrong contract, Was wondering why everything was blank.


----------



## Bronte

We have SPI orders received by the exchange...
and can not cancel them?


----------



## sails

Looks like pre-open for the SPI at 12:35 and then trading again at 12:45


----------



## Bronte

Thank you Margaret,
We should be able to cancel our SPI orders during the Pre-open.
This feeling of not being in control is not nice :cussing::nosympath


----------



## Bronte

No harm done.....


----------



## sails

Bronte said:


> Thank you Margaret,
> We should be able to cancel our SPI orders during the Pre-open.
> This feeling of not being in control is not nice :cussing::nosympath




Yes, it is a helpless feeling - hope it works out OK, Bronte.

EDIT: just saw your post before mine.


----------



## marknz88

Excuse my ignorance, but whats up with the 5000 contract volume in the first minute of todays open? is it people closing out Sept contracts and moving to the forward?


----------



## marknz88

never mind, realised expiry was tomorrow and not next week. duh


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> By the way what happened to our your young maverick? He's not updating his blog. Last I remember he was a little underwater on a small short?






moXJO said:


> Must have taken a break after the hit





Hey Ivan ----- hows that flip on the index going  ----- hope u r still holding young fella


----------



## sammy84

I got this from Ivans blog. Seems to be missing July and August, I wonder why.....Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the missing numbers?

Expensive price to pay to learn money management. I would have taught it to him for a lot less


----------



## prawn_86

sammy84 said:


> I would have taught it to him for a lot less




Everyone here was trying to teach him for free. Once a gambler always a gambler i guess; seems he was more about 'getting lucky' than any meaningful analysis


----------



## cutz

I take it Ivan was not the only one caught out with his pants round his ankles, his biggest mistake was boasting about his previous conquest, big ego and trading, it's a dirty word.


----------



## Cartman

Never saw ego as an issue with I'v ---- and pretty sure he'll be back in the game a lot sooner than some may think ---


----------



## Bobby

If Ivan had just went long we would be congratulating him , the guy had balls , wish him well on the come back  .


----------



## Cartman

Bobby said:


> If Ivan had just went long we would be congratulating him , *the guy had balls , wish him well on the come back*  .





ditto Bob --- pretty sure I'v flipped his short position so if he's still holding the long he'll be doing ok ---

might be a while b4 he gets the loss back but the young fella has ticker and i look forward to the announcement !


----------



## Bobby

Cartman said:


> ditto Bob --- pretty sure I'v flipped his short position so if he's still holding the long he'll be doing ok ---
> 
> might be a while b4 he gets the loss back but the young fella has ticker and i look forward to the announcement !




Lets hope so Cartman , sure was a nice young bloke


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

anyone heard from ivan at all? I sent him an email but no response, hasn't updated his blog for a while either. 

got a nice short on the SPI at the moment, shorted yesterday at around 4761. anyone still trading this? haha. few spiderwebs and tumble weeds blowing around in here.


----------



## prawn_86

ThingyMajiggy said:


> anyone heard from ivan at all? I sent him an email but no response, hasn't updated his blog for a while either.




He just seemed like a typical gambler to me. Made a heap, talked it up, and then goes quiet when he loses it all again. Instead of actually planning for the future... Meet these type of people at any race track, TAB, casino etc etc


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

prawn_86 said:


> He just seemed like a typical gambler to me. Made a heap, talked it up, and then goes quiet when he loses it all again. Instead of actually planning for the future... Meet these type of people at any race track, TAB, casino etc etc




Yeah, I guess when you're taking the massive risks that he was taking, its only going to last so long. 

....buuut ya never know, he might be up to 1.7mil by now


----------



## Broadway

Is the rally the citi tarp thing, or is there something else going on?


----------



## MS+Tradesim

WTF just happened?


----------



## prawn_86

MS+Tradesim said:


> WTF just happened?




I agree...?? And its not a bum tick either. Weird...


----------



## Broadway

Surely the citi news is old -

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839285

The rally is all of Asia and the ES YM.

Anyone know where it started?


----------



## Frank D

Japanese revised production report @ 3.30pm, and a lot of
 program trading kicking in


----------



## Market Sniper

Might be something to do with Abu Dhabi agreeing to fund $10b for Dubai World Debt


----------



## skc

Market Sniper said:


> Might be something to do with Abu Dhabi agreeing to fund $10b for Dubai World Debt




News link here.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE5BD01A20091214?type=marketsNews


If Dubai wasn't that big a problem to start with then it's rescue shouldn't be that big a deal either? Hard to guess how long this jump will last. Hopefully into the US section tonight and for the next 2 days. The market has been looking for an excuse to rally.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

skc said:


> If Dubai wasn't that big a problem to start with then it's rescue shouldn't be that big a deal either?




Yes, and also the jump occurred before the Japanese revised figure which was on expectation so that doesn't seem to explain it either.


----------



## skyQuake

skc said:


> News link here.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE5BD01A20091214?type=marketsNews
> 
> 
> If Dubai wasn't that big a problem to start with then it's rescue shouldn't be that big a deal either? Hard to guess how long this jump will last. Hopefully into the US section tonight and for the next 2 days. The market has been looking for an excuse to rally.




The rescue was a pretty big thing, cds expectations had it marked as default.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

skyQuake said:


> The rescue was a pretty big thing, cds expectations had it marked as default.




Maybe that's it then.


----------



## skc

Pretty certain that was it timing wise. Just surprised at the magnitude of the global joy, when we've collectively decided to ignore it 2 Fridays ago.

Anyway, just trailling a stop on a small long and see how long the party lasts.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Does there HAVE to be a reason so badly? You guys seem hell bent on relating it to some news event is all. 

Wasn't it mentioned around here that we were lagging behind aswell, so might be a bit of catch up in there if so. Good for those long anyway


----------



## Nyden

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Does there HAVE to be a reason so badly? You guys seem hell bent on relating it to some news event is all.
> 
> Wasn't it mentioned around here that we were lagging behind aswell, so might be a bit of catch up in there if so. Good for those long anyway




Of course there does. The market doesn't just shoot up in a straight line based on nothing at all.

I'm happy about it, everything turned green - but I would still like to know why!


----------



## MS+Tradesim

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Does there HAVE to be a reason so badly? You guys seem hell bent on relating it to some news event is all.
> 
> Wasn't it mentioned around here that we were lagging behind aswell, so might be a bit of catch up in there if so. Good for those long anyway




Everything shot up, FX, futures, not just us, so something had to have started it and reinforced it across multiple markets otherwise I suspect it would have been arbed out quickly.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nyden said:


> Of course there does. The market doesn't just shoot up in a straight line based on nothing at all.
> 
> I'm happy about it, everything turned green - but I would still like to know why!




Well obviously. But it seems kinda frantic around here to find a news event that happened around the same time and say "yep thats it, must have been". 

Ooo look, my nanna cleaned the bathroom at the same time it made a new high, must be it! 

But whatever floats your boat  It was certainly a nice upmove.


----------



## Timmy

This?

Abu Dhabi Rescues Dubai With $10 Billion; Nakheel to Repay Bond

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFbBDktZXGWQ&pos=1

Certainly wouldn't have done any harm ...


----------



## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Well obviously. But it seems kinda frantic around here to find a news event that happened around the same time and say "yep thats it, must have been".
> 
> Ooo look, my nanna cleaned the bathroom at the same time it made a new high, must be it!
> 
> But whatever floats your boat  It was certainly a nice upmove.




You have good valid point... a good technical trader probably doesn't need to know the reason for the move. He will just trade what is in front of him. 

A discretionary trader however should probably know the reason in order to assess whether to join the rally or fade it.

Or, an in between trader will put in the long then look for the reason


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

skc said:


> You have good valid point... a good technical trader probably doesn't need to know the reason for the move. He will just trade what is in front of him.
> 
> A discretionary trader however should probably know the reason in order to assess whether to join the rally or fade it.
> 
> Or, an in between trader will put in the long then look for the reason




Haha true. So theres only good technical traders or in-between traders here, as the "reason" wasn't found out till the end of the day


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Is today really good for trading or is my flu getting worse? Some great action this morning!


----------



## skc

It's expiry today for the Dec contract so pretty wild trading in the morning.

Would anyone with knowledge like to explain what kind of things happen on expiry? I roughly know people are squaring their arbitrage or rolling contracts over, but unsure how that affect prices.

Did that cause the SPI Mar contract to fall so badly in the morning?
Did that cause the next 80 odd points up (I thought may be NAB/AXA has more to do with that)?
Does this happen a lot on expiry?

TIA


----------



## Broadway

skc said:


> It's expiry today for the Dec contract so pretty wild trading in the morning.
> 
> Would anyone with knowledge like to explain what kind of things happen on expiry? I roughly know people are squaring their arbitrage or rolling contracts over, but unsure how that affect prices.
> 
> Did that cause the SPI Mar contract to fall so badly in the morning?
> Did that cause the next 80 odd points up (I thought may be NAB/AXA has more to do with that)?
> Does this happen a lot on expiry?
> 
> TIA




Ive seen other expirys that were fairly quiet, so Im not sure if the rollover is contributing to the volatility.
I was personally thinking longs today because oil and copper were up last night, so luckily grabbed some of that rally.
But theres a few influences today, fomc and NAB and the usd rally and AUD fall, as well as yesterdays low aussie GDP.
Tricky day imo. Good to see a larger range day.


----------



## skyQuake

Broadway said:


> Ive seen other expirys that were fairly quiet, so Im not sure if the rollover is contributing to the volatility.
> I was personally thinking longs today because oil and copper were up last night, so luckily grabbed some of that rally.
> But theres a few influences today, fomc and NAB and the usd rally and AUD fall, as well as yesterdays low aussie GDP.
> Tricky day imo. Good to see a larger range day.




Same, this coumpled with the NAB bid should have sent us a lot higher. However massive AUD selling was probably to blame. It went down 100 pips, Euro tanked against the USD too so that probably worried o/s hedge funds. (or it was them bailing)


----------



## GMS

SKC,

This is my tenth year as a futures client advisor, and I've seen it all, over the years when it comes to the SPI200 expiry. More often than not there is a great deal of volatility and wild fluctuations. 


If your trading style isn't suited to this level of volatility its best to sit on the sideline on expiry morning. Even the big players prefer to take conservative positions on expiry.

Cheers.


----------



## skc

Thank you gents...

My SPI trading style is close to non-existent. I play around with a $1K account doing $2 per point just to learn about it. Slightly more engaging than paper trading... 

If it was hedge fund bailing out Aussie equities I suppose they could short the SPI first and square off their equities in the new year when more liquidity return?


----------



## cutz

skc said:


> It's expiry today for the Dec contract so pretty wild trading in the morning.




Quite a few things expired today, along with the Dec SPI contracts, index options and stock options also expired today, an unusual event.


----------



## skc

What's with those 250/300 lots at the current level? Are they spoofs or for real?

They tried to defend 4915 before and failed.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> What's with those 250/300 lots at the current level? Are they spoofs or for real?
> 
> They tried to defend 4915 before and failed.




So far they are the real thing. Whether or not they take the full heat or not time will tell.

At a guess you would say Its someone from the top end of town holding the down side to get a technical breakout on any push up in the next week. Livermore style


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

How do you determine if its real or a spoof? Are you guys referring to the 200-300+ lots on the bid? 

Holding the downside TH? As in holding the price at this level, accumulating for a break to the upside? 

Just making sure I'm following


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Holding the downside TH? As in holding the price at this level, accumulating for a break to the upside?




I wouldn't say accumulating at these levels just defending these levels to help any chance of a tech break soon.


----------



## lukeaye

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't say accumulating at these levels just defending these levels to help any chance of a tech break soon.




I dont have access to market depth atm, could you tell me what level has this lot size bid


----------



## Broadway

It was around 4605 on the spi, held for ages then failed, or that pro pulled his bid after about 1/2 got absorbed.

Those sort of stubborn dom numbers lead to a rally last 2 times in 24hrs, but im nervous about this one.


----------



## lukeaye

Broadway said:


> It was around 4605 on the spi, held for ages then failed, or that pro pulled his bid after about 1/2 got absorbed.
> 
> Those sort of stubborn dom numbers lead to a rally last 2 times in 24hrs, but im nervous about this one.




To my way of thinking, and correct me if im wrong, but If i have say 250 contracts on the bid, at a lower price then current market, im trying to defend lower prices. So whoever it was looks like they were bluffing DOM to try and force prices higher?


----------



## Broadway

lukeaye said:


> To my way of thinking, and correct me if im wrong, but If i have say 250 contracts on the bid, at a lower price then current market, im trying to defend lower prices. So whoever it was looks like they were bluffing DOM to try and force prices higher?




Personally, a bluffer is a high dom number that flickers around between slots, and disappears when price moves towards it.

This was a little different, it held in its slot stubbornly for a while and absorbed contracts coming to it. So the trader actually took longs and quite a few of them before eventually getting out of the way.

Interestingly, the ES did rally 7-10 points last night and there were other hints in asia it would, but the spi lagged behind, I think because copper fell most of the night. The spi ended up at 4908, and the trader was absorbing at 4906. But no doubting that trader will likely take some profits at 50-100 up sometime in the next fortnight. I imagine guys like that are rarely wrong.

So its true to say he was defending, but willing to put his money where his mouth was as well.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> The spi ended up at 4908, and the trader was absorbing at 4906. But no doubting that trader will likely take some profits at 50-100 up sometime in the next fortnight. I imagine guys like that are rarely wrong.




Broadway, He/She/They took a 36 mil position on that defend. Its very likely that they have a 200 mil equity long position (for example) that they are in some way wanting to defend or distribute at higher levels. Its not always a direct SPI trade.

All purely speculation of course but thats my guess, If they actually wanted a 300 lot position to flick a bit higher there is a lot smarter ways to take it than that. IMO.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Broadway, He/She/They took a 36 mil position on that defend. Its very likely that they have a 200 mil equity long position (for example) that they are in some way wanting to defend or distribute at higher levels. Its not always a direct SPI trade.
> 
> All purely speculation of course but thats my guess, If they actually wanted a 300 lot position to flick a bit higher there is a lot smarter ways to take it than that. IMO.




Hey TH, nice to see you posting again.

Was thinking of you the other day while i was flying down a snowpacked hill!

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Was thinking of you the other day while i was flying down a snowpacked hill!
> 
> CanOz




That sounds very nice. What part of the world was it in?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> That sounds very nice. What part of the world was it in?




Northern China, we're actually just getting ready to go again today. We're buying our own boards today before we go. I'm quite excited.

CanOz


----------



## skc

I am going to call a short on break of 4906 with a 20 point target. That will see us finish breakeven on the XJO.



CanOz said:


> Hey TH, nice to see you posting again.
> 
> Was thinking of you the other day while i was flying down a snowpacked hill!
> 
> CanOz




The China market looks like it want to slide along with you today.

BTW, you ought to wear warmer gloves or you will have the TH.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Northern China, we're actually just getting ready to go again today. We're buying our own boards today before we go. I'm quite excited.
> 
> CanOz



 Yeah that sounds great. I'm missing my usual feb trip this year to Japan/Europe to do a mountaineering course in NZ. A bit sad about it.



skc said:


> BTW, you ought to wear warmer gloves or you will have the TH.




Don't forget the storm trouper skid lid 

My rig,


----------



## CanOz

Nice, looks like a lervly day too. Were you freeriding powder from the road?

Will have to start a winter sports thread i think. I'll post a vid of me from today, on a nice little slope outside of the city, err when my mate passes it onto me.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nice 40 odd point free fall over the last hour


----------



## skyQuake

Anyone get some SPI here? Very Nice vol lol
Whos up for gap fill EoD?


----------



## Broadway

skyQuake said:


> Anyone get some SPI here? Very Nice vol lol
> Whos up for gap fill EoD?




There was some volume in US banks after the fall last night.
But might take a while to turn around.


----------



## Broadway

Good volume in asx miners and banks today.
I'm in, she should swing up.
Knowing my luck Ill probably take heat for days though.


----------



## skyQuake

Broadway said:


> Good volume in asx miners and banks today.
> I'm in, she should swing up.
> Knowing my luck Ill probably take heat for days though.




Lots of small caps have reversed well off their lows too. Commodities arent helping though. But we should get some sort of squeeze on monday regardless


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Lots of small caps have reversed well off their lows too. Commodities arent helping though. But we should get some sort of squeeze on monday regardless




The small caps reversal are amazing today.

MCR low of $1.51 and looks like closing flat. That's 16% range... I am sure there are more stunning ones out there.

Is there a search function for % range in IB or something?


----------



## marknz88

I was skeptical off getting in on yesterdays lows and holding for a bounce come Monday..

I wish all those who got in luck come Monday and hoping we dont follow down another 2% (although I am hoping for that to get in )


----------



## Broadway

Metals showed a good bounce on friday, but oil dived at about 6pm friday, and I think that's a leader lately. Investors waiting for a pullback must be licking their lips. Fair amount of volume on sycom in the last hour,though. I got stopped ofcourse, but Ill look for oil to bounce and spi/bhp volume for another entry.
Interesting that HSI rose friday by 300+ in the second session.BTW, note to self, when the usd and usbonds rise together, make sure to look for shorts

I think this slide started on the 9th, with those nonfarm employment change numbers that came in much worse than expected. US bonds rose from that number and the USD hit bottom volume 2 days after. EPCR was around 0.5 for 4 days in a row.

Good luck for this week, happy hunting investors.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

BOOORRRRRINNNNNGGGGGG 

Its like Asia down and US up confuses it or something.


----------



## skc

ThingyMajiggy said:


> BOOORRRRRINNNNNGGGGGG
> 
> Its like Asia down and US up confuses it or something.




I think we are confused because of the Australia day holiday. We didn't know whether to catch up to Asia's fall or follow the US up.

A nice triangle forming on the SPI that may break to the upside given how Asia is surging. HSI has a strong bounce off 20,000 points...

Got a small long in at 4630. Stop 10 pts, target 60 pts


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> I think we are confused because of the Australia day holiday. We didn't know whether to catch up to Asia's fall or follow the US up.
> 
> A nice triangle forming on the SPI that may break to the upside given how Asia is surging. HSI has a strong bounce off 20,000 points...



 Keep an eye on China. they have really been spoiling any up moves for two weeks. With that said we are due a bounce. :run:



skc said:


> Got a small long in at 4630. Stop 10 pts, target 60 pts



 Never tell the market your stop. 

60 points? You know the average range for the SPI?


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Keep an eye on China. they have really been spoiling any up moves for two weeks. With that said we are due a bounce. :run:
> 
> Never tell the market your stop.
> 
> 60 points? You know the average range for the SPI?




So that's your 200 contracts at the ask trying to trigger my stop?!

It's not a scalp or day trade but a position trade... more than happy for my target to be hit tomorrow.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> It's not a scalp or day trade but a position trade... more than happy for my target to be hit tomorrow.




Yeah I thought about that after I posted.


----------



## Mr J

skc said:


> A nice triangle forming on the SPI that *may* break to the upside




We can't trade by "may" :.


----------



## skc

Mr J said:


> We can't trade by "may" :.




Actually my entry was triggered half way through me typing that post so it's may but with a entry at the end.

BTW, we are all trading "may's"...If I was trading "will's" then I "will" be billionaire.

EDIT: Not sure if that made any sense but who cares....


----------



## ginar

Still making lower swing highs atm and we are sort of at top  of channel thats formed over this last few days . .  im favouring selling into the close from here ... tight stops

.. trade well


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> 60 points? You know the average range for the SPI?




Just on that point. 20 day average,


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on that point. 20 day average,




Can you do one of the overnight sessions? So from the close to the following open?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can you do one of the overnight sessions? So from the close to the following open?




Your wish is my command


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can you do one of the overnight sessions? So from the close to the following open?




Just on that. Here is another little stat from the above chart. Although it includes the biggest meltdown since god knows when. 

Up opens 293
Down opens 234

Thats why I luv this stuff. I prefer to know stats like that than what a H & S pattern looks like.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on that. Here is another little stat from the above chart. Although it includes the biggest meltdown since god knows when.
> 
> Up opens 293
> Down opens 234
> 
> Thats why I luv this stuff. I prefer to know stats like that than what a H & S pattern looks like.






Yet

Points gained on up Opens = 13940

Points lost on down Opens = -14056


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on that. Here is another little stat from the above chart. Although it includes the biggest meltdown since god knows when.
> 
> Up opens 293
> Down opens 234
> 
> Thats why I luv this stuff. I prefer to know stats like that than what a H & S pattern looks like.




Thats the shiz  

What about up/down closes? Might as well keep my slave occupied :


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Yet
> 
> Points gained on up Opens = 13940
> 
> Points lost on down Opens = -14056




 Those are sure some useful stats! The up open and down open never occured to me lol

More food for thought:
Day SPI from Jan 06 (4700s) to Jan10 (4600s)
Sum of intraday moves is -1500 pts
(most of the gains came from night spi!)

TH how far back would you look for you stats data? Would you consider some trading periods less relevant?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

skyQuake said:


> More food for thought:
> Day SPI from Jan 06 (4700s) to Jan10 (4600s)
> Sum of intraday moves is -1500 pts
> (most of the gains came from night spi!)




Yeah its interesting, thats why I asked TH to bring up the overnight, I've noticed a couple of times recently that most of the moves have come from the overnight session. 

I think the same is happening on the ES.


----------



## prawn_86

Great to see such informative posts. Keep up the good work guys


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> TH how far back would you look for your stats data? Would you consider some trading periods less relevant?



 Thats why I like to graph charts that are a moving average over a long period. Then you get an idea of the changing conditions. Lets face it that's why system traders are duds :. They set up for one condition while discretionary traders, I guess the ones that last , are always looking out for and adopting to changes.



skyQuake said:


> More food for thought:
> Day SPI from Jan 06 (4700s) to Jan10 (4600s)
> Sum of intraday moves is -1500 pts
> (most of the gains came from night spi!)






ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah its interesting, thats why I asked TH to bring up the overnight, I've noticed a couple of times recently that most of the moves have come from the overnight session.
> 
> I think the same is happening on the ES.



Thats a classic pattern in most markets, especially in bull moves. I posted about that back in 2007. From 05 to mid 07 the entire bull market was in the overnight gaps, were the sum total of the day gain was 241 points! less than 0.5 points per day!!

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html

I love the BS in the gold thread for example where the Gold Bugs call a conspiracy and start crying when they start to notice that their lover gaps up on the open then rolls over. It aint a conspiracy its the way markets move.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats a classic pattern in most markets, especially in bull moves. I posted about that back in 2007. From 05 to mid 07 the entire bull market was in the overnight gaps, were the sum total of the day gain was 241 points! less than 0.5 points per day!!
> 
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2007/07/spi.html
> 
> I love the BS in the gold thread for example where the Gold Bugs call a conspiracy and start crying when they start to notice that their lover gaps up on the open then rolls over. It aint a conspiracy its the way markets move.




Thats a great post on your blog TH, did you do all that data yourself manually entering it? Or did you import that from somewhere? 

Would love to do one since the **** hit the fan till the March turnaround and also from March till now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Thats a great post on your blog TH, did you do all that data yourself manually entering it? Or did you import that from somewhere?
> 
> Would love to do one since the **** hit the fan till the March turnaround and also from March till now.




Its pretty easy with some basic Excel & database (MS Access) skills.

Might do it again with data from 07 till now tomorrow. I do have somewhere the same thing for the 08 meltdown and it was losses in both the overnight and day sessions from memory - not that surprising hey? But will be an interesting exercise anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Interestingly China is green today (or actually red because they have the colours opposite to us  red is lucky)

while Honkers has risen since the open unlike all the other Asian markets.


----------



## Trembling Hand

see,


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Interestingly China is green today (or actually red because they have the colours opposite to us  red is lucky)
> 
> while Honkers has risen since the open unlike all the other Asian markets.




Yeah, wonder if there were those who jumped in short expecting it to drop


----------



## Mr J

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats a classic pattern in most markets, especially in bull moves. I posted about that back in 2007. From 05 to mid 07 the entire bull market was in the overnight gaps, were the sum total of the day gain was 241 points! less than 0.5 points per day!!




Very interesting figure. Not surprised that the majority of movement was overnight, but at 10:1 - wow!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Very interesting figure. Not surprised that the majority of movement was overnight, but at 10:1 - wow!




Its not surprising. The locals have to make the price so the punters can take the price, what better way than a nice juicy green open - then you all know who's more likely to get the cucumber rumba.


----------



## nuking

hi guys
is there a reason for a big move on spi200 compare to other asian markets?


----------



## naughtynickers

nuking said:


> hi guys
> is there a reason for a big move on spi200 compare to other asian markets?




Pull up a chart of the ASX200 over the month... since Jan 10 we just keep hitting lower low's...

Elliot Wave Theory perhaps... the all powerful 3rd motion? ASX 200 could be 3000 by end of Feb at this rate


----------



## skyQuake

> ASX New Trader Incentive Programs
> 
> The New Trader Incentive Programs allow eligible corporate entities and proprietary traders who have not traded the ASX futures market in the last two years to receive a 100% rebate on the Exchange trade fee when trading the ASX benchmark futures and options contracts.




http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/institutional/new_trader_incentive_programs.htm

Is this exchange rebate fee brokerage ??


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/institutional/new_trader_incentive_programs.htm
> 
> Is this exchange rebate fee brokerage ??




Think they have always had that. You still have to pay someone to clear for you but no exchange fee which is about 1/2 brokerage. I think.


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/institutional/new_trader_incentive_programs.htm
> 
> Is this exchange rebate fee brokerage ??




Wonder how many months you get before the exchange rebate ends?

It has been around since I started trading it.  Too bad the 'institutions' take the rebate!!!!


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Think they have always had that. You still have to pay someone to clear for you but no exchange fee which is about 1/2 brokerage. I think.




Hmm so 1/2 price of say doing everything though fortis?



MRC & Co said:


> Wonder how many months you get before the exchange rebate ends?
> 
> It has been around since I started trading it.  Too bad the 'institutions' take the rebate!!!!




3m for private traders
6m for insto traders

Looks like the 'insto' would rake quite a bit off that!


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> Hmm so 1/2 price of say doing everything though fortis?
> 
> 3m for private traders
> 6m for insto traders
> 
> Looks like the 'insto' would rake quite a bit off that!




Gracias.

The Q, not sure I get what your asking Quake?  But there are 2 parts of your brokerage, first to the exchange (SFE), second a fee to the clearer (Fortis, MF etc), so if it's $5, then you would get $2.50 per trade the first 3-6 months (assuming it's split 50/50, as you would get the entire exchange fee back, i.e. if it was 80/20 exchange/clearer, you would get $1 trades).  Yep, rip-off pr*cks, everybody takes a piece of your pie!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Grrr missed the open run playing "dic for a tick" game. Then get stopped outta 4 shorts. Last one 2 ticks from high before the roll over! 

Then make up it all up in a 20 sec trade on the HSI. I don't know why don't I just let that SPI go?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee nasty day so far. China open down 1.5%

Arms sales anyone? :ald::enforcer::bigun2::laser_sho


----------



## Market Sniper

it has some mysterious power that just keeps you coming back for more!!!!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What was with that 30 tick spike around 10pm?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What was with that 30 tick spike around 10pm?




Don't know. the aud is very frisky as well.

Some au based stock news from the UK?


----------



## ginar

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't know. the aud is very frisky as well.
> 
> Some au based stock news from the UK?




BLT pretty static , id say a fat finger trade ... too many 0's on the end . someone got explaininmg to do tommorow


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't know. the aud is very frisky as well.
> 
> Some au based stock news from the UK?




Oh dear did I hit market again with those 1 lots


----------



## Broadway

Anyone buying today?
Looks to me like the bhp and spi volume is already in the market.
Could take a few days as usual, could be tonight.
Anyone agree/disagree?


----------



## MRC & Co

Broadway said:


> Anyone buying today?
> Looks to me like the bhp and spi volume is already in the market.
> Could take a few days as usual, could be tonight.
> Anyone agree/disagree?




I reckon if non-farms comes out bad tonight, there is going to be a meltdown!

P.S  Which will probably be the low of this move


----------



## Trembling Hand

5 minutes of live in the SPI 

Thats it folks, nothin to see here, its over now, move on please.

Back to your normal programing now.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What causes things like this? short covering or something?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What causes things like this? short covering or something?




Mostly these,






push them up clean them out.


----------



## skyQuake

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What causes things like this? short covering or something?




Looked like it was equities driven? Buy progam ticked everything up.

Think we're close to a bottom, In the Russell 3000 decliners led advances 17.5 to 1, and Correlation went through the roof. No bounces in the small caps today which is nice, retail punters are afraid of buying the bounce which prob means the low is close.

Gotta love Citi marketmakers, SPI close to some calls barrier level and they don't push through it!


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Gotta love Citi marketmakers, SPI close to some calls barrier level and they don't push through it!




Yet


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Mostly these,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> push them up clean them out.




lol.

spike up nearly 20 points, now drop back nearly 30


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Yet




They had their chance at 12:20 4453 but couldnt be bothered pushing it 3 ticks, and postmarket doesnt count


----------



## white_goodman

im calling lows for this move... this has a 99% chance of being wrong but I feel that 4500 'area' will hold....







till Monday morning atleast


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Any NinjaTraderers out there know how I can get the full 24 hours on the SPI to show up? Not sure what has gone wrong, I think it used to, but can't seem to figure it out 

Its just showing the day sessions like so....

Probably not the right thread for it but hopefully it won't take long


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nevermind I think I found what the problem is. NT7 beta and 6.5 are interfering with each other


----------



## Broadway

skyQuake said:


> Looked like it was equities driven? Buy progam ticked everything up.
> 
> Think we're close to a bottom, In the Russell 3000 decliners led advances 17.5 to 1, and Correlation went through the roof.




Which correlation skyquake? just curious.


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> Gotta love Citi marketmakers, SPI close to some calls barrier level and they don't push through it!




What do you mean by this, sorry my brain is fried and need an easy explanation?  

BTW, word on the ST, non-farms at -60k.  If this is true, goodbye, see you later, the USD 'risk free' trade will get it's rally back on in a real hurry!  

Add in good figures are being hosed, and there were some big down moves last night with little present volume, Asia gaps down big-time and still can't get a bid........ominous warnings........!

Only worry, is oil is strong as hell at the moment, the best lead indicator, through hasn't been 'itself' in recent days!


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> What do you mean by this, sorry my brain is fried and need an easy explanation?




They, as the writers of the options, could of pushed the spi down just 3 ticks and made the oppies worthless.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> They, as the writers of the options, could of pushed the spi down just 3 ticks and made the oppies worthless.




Ah k.  My oppies knowledge has gone completely by the wayside unfortunately!    Used to understand at least the basics, ah well, enough money in the futures!


----------



## MRC & Co

Fark me, negative employment and revision, but the rate dropped, damn stats skewing!!!!!


----------



## Largesse

it still boggles the mind how they get these figures so wrong.

revision from -85k to -150k....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

MRC & Co said:


> Fark me, negative employment and revision, but the rate dropped, damn stats skewing!!!!!




So...is this good or bad? ES has rallied fairly hard just now..


----------



## CanOz

In my mind, this time it really doesn't matter. The market has been hammered big time. If the report is bullish, stocks sell of because there could be a rate rise...bearish and then what??? more of the same...

i think its going to take a big buyer to turn this market up.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## skyQuake

Broadway said:


> Which correlation skyquake? just curious.




In the Russell. All the sectors did the same thing, as did the stocks in the sectors. Nothing managed to hold up.

A bit similar to what we had today in our small caps, everything was dumped indiscriminately. 

On another note, it seems some portfolios had to sell down holdings today. Crossing in the morning on a range of stocks not limited to XJO or even XKO so I guess it wasn't just an index fund. Diverse selling = redemptions = fund does not have enough cash to pay the people withdrawing = FUND IS ALREADY FULLY INVESTED. No more money on the sidelines. (At least for this fund anways) 
Just some food for thought 

------------------

Unemployment figures were apparently better at 9.7%, so thats what sparked the rally.


----------



## skc

skyQuake said:


> Unemployment figures were apparently better at 9.7%, so thats what sparked the rally.




Not much of a rally. dow sub 10K just now


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

skc said:


> Not much of a rally. dow sub 10K just now




Na not now, before the market opened, 12 or so point rally on the ES.

Thats what I was on about anyway


----------



## MRC & Co

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So...is this good or bad? ES has rallied fairly hard just now..




It's a bad thing IMO, raw numbers showed job losses larger than expected.

Lower unemployment 'rate' can simply show 'disgruntled workers', those dropping out of the labor force and hence, 'lower unemployment', but when you get down to it, jobs were still lost greater than expected.

Though, in the order flow, the down move was extremelly laboured, looked like someone wanted to buy at those levels regardless of the figures which surprised me a lot.  Not on my computer, so can't check the things I want, will have to wait until the wk.


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> In the Russell. All the sectors did the same thing, as did the stocks in the sectors. Nothing managed to hold up.
> 
> A bit similar to what we had today in our small caps, everything was dumped indiscriminately.
> 
> On another note, it seems some portfolios had to sell down holdings today. Crossing in the morning on a range of stocks not limited to XJO or even XKO so I guess it wasn't just an index fund. Diverse selling = redemptions = fund does not have enough cash to pay the people withdrawing = FUND IS ALREADY FULLY INVESTED. No more money on the sidelines. (At least for this fund anways)
> Just some food for thought
> 
> ------------------




This sounds like your saying it's bearish Quake, i.e money being withdrawn from funds, no money left on the sidelines, down we go?  Or your saying just now as the retailers are getting bearish, the larger hedge funds/IBs are going to get bullish?

As for the Citi MMs, if the market was pushed down those 3 ticks, what ramifications would this have?


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> As for the Citi MMs, if the market was pushed down those 3 ticks, what ramifications would this have?




From asx on barrier warrants. Do they also have barrier oppies?



> Knock-out (Barrier) index warrants
> Some index warrants are issued as knock-out warrants which contain a barrier feature. Similar to equity knock-out warrants, if the index level hits or passes through the barrier level, the warrant will expire prematurely with the warrant value as zero. See the Equity knock-out warrants example for more information.




page 14-15


----------



## skyQuake

MRC & Co said:


> This sounds like your saying it's bearish Quake, i.e money being withdrawn from funds, no money left on the sidelines, down we go?  Or your saying just now as the retailers are getting bearish, the larger hedge funds/IBs are going to get bullish?
> 
> As for the Citi MMs, if the market was pushed down those 3 ticks, what ramifications would this have?




Yeh basically your warrants blow up. 

With the funds, it definitely seems bearish. However this is only ONE fund in Aus. If we keep seeing massive crossings before the open then that is bad stuff.
Everyone and anyone has been buying dips in the rallies so it wouldnt surprise me that a fair few funds are fully invested.

And just when I think everything is gonna crash and burn, the ES does its reversal and stopping volume occurs on almost everything lol.


----------



## MRC & Co

Ok cool, I get you now.  Yes, a LOT of traders got bearish right before that stopping vol.  Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT 

On the warrents/oppies, does this mean they simply become worthless?  No further flow on effects into stocks/futures?


----------



## Broadway

MRC & Co said:


> Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT




I think the bhp/rio volume on friday was the first sign of some bullish activity.
But I dont think the bears will give up too easily.
We'll see if the usd can fall some tonight or not.


----------



## skyQuake

MRC & Co said:


> Ok cool, I get you now.  Yes, a LOT of traders got bearish right before that stopping vol.  Think funds were planning to buy NFPs regardless at those levels, or at least the PPT
> 
> On the warrents/oppies, does this mean they simply become worthless?  No further flow on effects into stocks/futures?




Yeh the warrants "expire" prematurely, you get $0. Any further movements in the underlying are ignored. 
Its pretty much a guarantee stop loss 
So those warrants can be good if you expect the dow to have a big move.


----------



## MRC & Co

Broadway said:


> I think the bhp/rio volume on friday was the first sign of some bullish activity.
> But I dont think the bears will give up too easily.
> We'll see if the usd can fall some tonight or not.




Broadway, I've seen you mention volume quite a few times on this down move, from day 2 I think, but from what I have seen, you are looking at pointless volume, in small timeframes or even SYCOM volume.

The first decent potential stopping volume from a daily perspective was Friday night IMO.

Anyways, I will be out of ASF now for quite some time or perhaps permanently (other than the odd visit) to concentrate on my own trading, good luck all!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

MRC & Co said:


> Broadway, I've seen you mention volume quite a few times on this down move, from day 2 I think, but from what I have seen, you are looking at pointless volume, in small timeframes or even SYCOM volume.
> 
> The first decent potential stopping volume from a daily perspective was Friday night IMO.
> 
> Anyways, I will be out of ASF now for quite some time or perhaps permanently (other than the odd visit) to concentrate on my own trading, good luck all!





Ah bummer  You're a handy forumian, all the best with your trading


----------



## skyQuake

That was a nice 40 odd tick bounce from the channel bot, anyone up for a break of 4470s sailing into the sunset?
Catalyst may be CBA tomorrow.


----------



## nomore4s

skyQuake said:


> That was a nice 40 odd tick bounce from the channel bot, anyone up for a break of 4470s sailing into the sunset?
> Catalyst may be CBA tomorrow.




Yeah got a couple of good trades off it, was looking for 4479 target but exited @ 4472

4479 still a possibility but I've finished trading for the day

Hoping CBA news is good, went long on it and BHP today, so fingers crossed.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

crap day for me, bought the tops, sold the bottoms, couldn't tell **** from clay 

Then got dinged to DEATH in the afternoon from IBs stupid server resetting, which made me feel like knifing a kitten. :microwave


----------



## johnnyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> crap day for me, bought the tops,* sold the bottoms,*




Interesting Sam, looking at your blog you seemed to of done abit of ground work regarding the SPI but didn't take your stats into account? 



> Average range is currently around 48 points.




But no means having a dig, just curious as to why.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

johnnyg said:


> Interesting Sam, looking at your blog you seemed to of done abit of ground work regarding the SPI but didn't take your stats into account?
> 
> But no means having a dig, just curious as to why.




Spot on johnny  

Why? Because its something I need to concentrate on, one of my faults is getting distracted, I get taken up with the moment when I'm trading and can make some silly decisions, then later I do my study and figure out the ranges etc

Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading, and when I'm calm and calculating ranges, patterns etc. Remaining calm, patient and confident are most likely the differences between me and someone who knows how to trade 

It annoys the crap out of me, everything is so clear and easy....well not "easy" but you know, more clear I guess when I'm not trading, and just watching, studying the market, and I feel like trading the most then. But when I am actually trading I tend to get taken up in the moment, thinking I'll miss opportunities and whatever, make foolish decisions.

Classic mistakes I guess


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Kind of like 2 different people between when I'm in the heat of trading,




I do similar when live too. It all has to do with my fight or flight reaction. I have a predominantly fighter personality and when I get spiked out of a trade I get angry and try to dominate the market. Like open trades against trend as if I will turn the market, as if I determine the outcome.

Gotta learn to walk away for half hour and cool down. Wait for another set-up, look at other markets or stop all together.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Kind of* like 2 different people* between when I'm in the heat of trading, and when I'm calm and calculating ranges, patterns etc. Remaining calm, patient and confident are most likely the differences between me and someone who knows how to trade






Wysiwyg said:


> Gotta *learn to walk away *for half hour and cool down. Wait for another set-up, look at other markets or stop all together.




That wont help. You make the mistake when you are in one state of mind then walk away and calm down to another state of mind. Then you go about "planing" in a rational mind what you are going to do and how you are going to handle it.

Problem arises when you run into the situation in the heat of battle your triggered into the "other" you, the fighter. Only way around it is to tackle it or at least recognise the state and learn to see what is triggering your Mr Hyde state. Then instead of making yourself go nuts trying to controlling it or just walking away, which is similar to sweeping it under the carpet, you have to learn how to "de-threat" the situation.

You can work on it in a calm state but ultimately you have to figure out how to work with it when the heat is on.

That's why I think the general BS about trading psychology is just that BS, trying to stay calm is denial.


----------



## johnnyg

Cheers for the reply Sam, keep up the good work with the blog too. Provides abit of Motivation for myself.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

johnnyg said:


> Cheers for the reply Sam, keep up the good work with the blog too. Provides abit of Motivation for myself.




Thanks alot johnny  will do.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Trembling Hand said:


> Problem arises when you run into the situation in the heat of battle your triggered into the "other" you, the fighter. Only way around it is to tackle it or at least recognise the state and learn to see what is triggering your Mr Hyde state. Then instead of making yourself go nuts trying to controlling it or just walking away, which is similar to sweeping it under the carpet, you have to learn how to "de-threat" the situation.




Thanks for your input Trembling Hand,  much appreciated. What am I doing to address this? Well for a start I give CFD's  a miss for awhile and stick to EOD stocks. I like to hold onto things for awhile too which I couldn't convert into with FX and cash Indices. Mostly experience required so I will get there.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just on my attempts at backyard psychology, 



> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/trading-and-brain-trauma-and-amygdala.html
> 
> If that is true, then many of the self-help techniques that we read in the trading psychology literature may be not very helpful for traders dealing with exaggerated responses mediated by the amygdala. Writing in a journal, talking with a coach, or visualizing positive outcomes would not be sufficient for reprogramming traumatic responses and *overcoming emotional reactivity* and loss aversion.




This one is a good one. Goes to the heart of 1 person 2 traders thing I was talking about. 



> http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/06/from-problem-patterns-to-solutions.html
> 
> In short, fighting the pattern is a mistake. The challenge is to understand the function of the pattern and then rehearse a different way of satisfying this function. Instead of viewing the problem pattern as *maladaptive*, the brief therapist views it as a form of problem solving that no longer works for the individual.


----------



## johnnyg

Sounds like another hard day at the office Sam, however again going back to your blog 



> 94% of those early high-down days occurred within 30 minutes of 10am, so from about 9:20 till 10:20, 30 minutes each side of 10am, is usually when the high will occur.




Looking at the Chart for the ASX 200 on the main ASF page your analysis was just about spot on again. I guess there was no way of knowing that the day was going to be a down day @ 10:30am, and with 2 heavy weights reporting could increase risk of fading the up moves.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

johnnyg said:


> Sounds like another hard day at the office Sam, however again going back to your blog
> 
> 
> 
> Looking at the Chart for the ASX 200 on the main ASF page your analysis was just about spot on again. I guess there was no way of knowing that the day was going to be a down day @ 10:30am, and with 2 heavy weights reporting could increase risk of fading the up moves.




Yeah, that analysis was only based off around 30 odd days I think it was as I said on my blog, so I'm not sure how accurate it is, and yes its hard to tell whether its going to be THE high or THE low at 10am, I guess if it breaks the low or high up until the present, then its _probably_ going to continue in that direction.

Finding this stuff out and actually trading them are two very different things, for me anyway.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on my attempts at backyard psychology,
> 
> 
> 
> This one is a good one. Goes to the heart of 1 person 2 traders thing I was talking about.





Cheers for those TH.  great posts

He often speaks about visualization techniques, have you tried this yourself? If so, has it had much effect?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Cheers for those TH.  great posts
> 
> He often speaks about visualization techniques, have you tried this yourself? If so, has it had much effect?




Yeah works a threat. look how much better I am,







Its called Cognitive therapy.

A lot about it in Enhancing Trader Performance.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Every good Escape Artist has an attractive female Assistant.


----------



## Naked shorts

Trembling Hand said:


> Just on my attempts at backyard psychology,




Turns out that first report was funded by Jim Simons


----------



## nomore4s

johnnyg said:


> Looking at the Chart for the ASX 200 on the main ASF page your analysis was just about spot on again. I guess there was no way of knowing that the day was going to be a down day @ 10:30am, and with 2 heavy weights reporting could increase risk of fading the up moves.






ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah, that analysis was only based off around 30 odd days I think it was as I said on my blog, so I'm not sure how accurate it is, and yes its hard to tell whether its going to be THE high or THE low at 10am, I guess if it breaks the low or high up until the present, then its _probably_ going to continue in that direction.
> 
> Finding this stuff out and actually trading them are two very different things, for me anyway.




This was actually discussed in the chat room this morning live, after 2 attempts at the highs early, a 3rd attempt at the high followed by a down move on the SPI was called before it happened and traded to a certain extent (limited due to work commitments). IMO after the 3rd attempt and failure to push higher the odds of a down move increased dramatically based on previous stats. While not expecting the move down that we got it should have at least put you on the right side of the market giving the trader every chance to capture some of that move.

Like Sam said finding these stats and patterns is one thing learning how to trade them is another. The idea behind knowing these stats and patterns is to put you on the right side of the market, giving you an idea of what could eventuate.
It is then up to you to develop a system that will give you good entries and exits to take advantage of this information.

What happens to a lot of traders is they end up with the blinkers on after the day starts, they are so focused on watching the charts or depth or whatever, they fail to see these set ups forming and end up on the wrong side of the market and then by the time they realise what is going on the move is over and they end up on the wrong side of the counter move or sideways action that follows.

Edit: Chart Added


----------



## Trembling Hand

Naked shorts said:


> Turns out that first report was funded by Jim Simons!


----------



## Naked shorts

Trembling Hand said:


>




well.. I thought it was interesting.. probably not worth an exclamation mark however.


Mods, can I get the exclamation mark removed from my last post?
Many thanks


----------



## nunthewiser

nomore4s said:


> This was actually discussed in the chat room this morning live, after 2 attempts at the highs early, a 3rd attempt at the high followed by a down move on the SPI was called before it happened and traded to a certain extent (limited due to work commitments).  .





Dont tell em that ! 

Now we gunna get an invasion of bright eyed bushy tailed guru seekers bombarding the joint...... when in reality we only go there to chat about recipies, pr0n and how to make moonshine.


Good call by the way.


----------



## nulla nulla

nunthewiser said:


> Dont tell em that !
> 
> Now we gunna get an invasion of bright eyed bushy tailed guru seekers bombarding the joint...... when in reality we only go there to chat about recipies, pr0n and how to make moonshine.
> 
> 
> Good call by the way.




Unfortunately the pr0n recomendations haven't been up to it lately as oz is busy working elsewhere and nomore4's recmmendations crash your computers.


----------



## nomore4s

nunthewiser said:


> Dont tell em that !
> 
> Now we gunna get an invasion of bright eyed bushy tailed guru seekers bombarding the joint...... when in reality we only go there to* chat about recipies, pr0n and how to make moonshine.*




This will probably attract more people then any trading info:


----------



## nulla nulla

I find this one fairly suspenseful. You never know whether the swan is going to make into the air or get shot down by some out of season duck hunter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u4JxtIGGMk


----------



## johnnyg

Nice post nomores, I'd love to be able and sit down during the day try to get a feel for it, however this style of trading doesn't fit in with my work commitments.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy they didn't like that one?

SUPRISE!!

hahaha!


----------



## skyQuake

Oh man how many people would have been caught out by that!

Thank you feds for making life interesting,

I'd imagine a lot of retail guys would have no idea and just look at the dow up and buy away...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> I'd imagine a lot of retail guys would have no idea and just look at the dow up and buy away...




As they always do.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

I wonder if that will have much impact on the open tonight.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I wonder if that will have much impact on the open tonight.




Yeah a lot of trades to pass under the bridge by then. Will probably just close the gap by US open so Explode can bring out the PPT line.

I guess keep an eye on the currencies, should be a good tell.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Nice rally just now, someone didn't want it below 20 it seems?


----------



## Mr J

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nice rally just now, someone didn't want it below 20 it seems?




It's been a while since I traded the SPI, but I wouldn't have called 18 points a rally. 19, 20, 21... moving up.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nice rally just now, someone didn't want it below 20 it seems?




Kospi been going up ever since it opened, Japan also heading into green. Euro made a nice bottom. 

Off we go?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Mr J said:


> It's been a while since I traded the SPI, but I wouldn't have called 18 points a rally. 19, 20, 21... moving up.




Sorry? Relative to the rest of the day, I'd call it a nice rally/move up/ whatever your heart desires to call it. 22 candles without a down one is not bad.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Kospi been going up ever since it opened, Japan also heading into green. Euro made a nice bottom.
> 
> Off we go?




Yeah, do you notice much correlation between the Kospi and SPI? or just Asia in general?


----------



## Edwood

the 'rally' just looks like SPI gap filling no?  See it stopped at 50% retrace of the move down off the o/n high.  that move after hours on US looks promising, next leg down could be underway


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah, do you notice much correlation between the Kospi and SPI? or just Asia in general?




All linked in some way. Boy the HSI really is spoiling the party. Bit surprised about the size of the move down.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> All linked in some way. Boy the HSI really is spoiling the party. Bit surprised about the size of the move down.




Yeah, pretty reasonable move down considering what is been doing last few days. Kospi has certainly made up for its strong start


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Wow, riveting day so far! MASSIVE 14 point range, just let it run guys


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Why is the SPI so upset? Crazy. 

Kospi has been negative ever since the open but still, surprised at how weak the SPI is.


----------



## SuperGlue

Latest News:  " Wages jump as labour market tightens "


http://www.smh.com.au/business/wages-jump-as-labour-market-tightens-20100225-p4od.html


----------



## skyQuake

Anyone trying to short the banks? A few of them look ready to pop. (But then again if you've been trying since last week you'd be ready to pop too.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Don't we always follow the DOW


----------



## skyQuake

Apparently in the bailout the greece deputy pm just called his german counterpart a Naz*, germans obviously werent so pleased and walked out.

Euro certainly didn't like that news.

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/2012...puty_prime_minister_attacks_Nazi_Germany.html


----------



## nunthewiser

skyQuake said:


> Anyone trying to short the banks? A few of them look ready to pop. (But then again if you've been trying since last week you'd be ready to pop too.




ANZ WBC ( as of today re WBC)


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't we always follow the DOW




Doesn't look like we're following anyone today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Doesn't look like we're following anyone today.




Hey? We look to be right in the middle of it.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey? We look to be right in the middle of it.




Yeah now it looks like it, HSI opened and went straight up pretty much but has come off since, we didn't react, US was up, which yes ok we don't follow them but that shouldn't HELP the downside. Nikkei went up on the open too, but been dragged down since HSI has hit the ****. We've just sailed down ever since the open, ignoring everything, now being helped by HK etc.

I wouldn't call that "following" anything.


----------



## skyQuake

nunthewiser said:


> ANZ WBC ( as of today re WBC)




Lol, its nice to know the market has fallen 80pts+ intraday and WBC is still UP.
Makes life funnnn


----------



## nunthewiser

skyQuake said:


> Lol, its nice to know the market has fallen 80pts+ intraday and WBC is still UP.
> Makes life funnnn




 Yep if it dont start getting smacked soon i might have to ring them and complain


----------



## Naked shorts

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey? We look to be right in the middle of it.




nice table, just have to wait now for the UK to wake up and realize what **** is going on.. 

God this is easy sometimes


----------



## skyQuake

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510204575085822102779364.html

Nicely done greece...

Anyways, I suspect we'll have a killer of a post mkt session on the SPI


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Hey? We look to be right in the middle of it.




Nice, is that live through IB, like just a watchlist you created?


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Nice, is that live through IB, like just a watchlist you created?




Yep, IB data, NinjaTraders Market Analyser,

http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/trading_software_market_analyzer.htm

Dirt cheep.  not that you big prop boys care about that.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bloody hell something really has the SPI by the short & curlies.

Whats wrong with the world?


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell something really has the SPI by the short & curlies.
> 
> Whats wrong with the world?




Think yesterdays falls were all SPI driven rather than cash, so there's not much covering today imo..

Also maybe because everyone is expecting a Long-till-close type of day 

Who thinks we'll close in the red today?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Think yesterdays falls were all SPI driven rather than cash, so there's not much covering today imo..
> 
> Also maybe because everyone is expecting a Long-till-close type of day
> 
> Who thinks we'll close in the red today?




Thinking about it last night, yesterday had the feel of the good old days of option expiry washouts. Just ridiculous SPI momentum driven by nasty evil MM. :vader:

I wounder?? probably a day too late for that game?


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> Think yesterdays falls were all SPI driven rather than cash, so there's not much covering today imo..




Yep, agree there, definately the futs leading yday.

So you think less chance of covering if it's the futs as opposed to cash?


----------



## skyQuake

MRC & Co said:


> Yep, agree there, definately the futs leading yday.
> 
> So you think less chance of covering if it's the futs as opposed to cash?




Yeh cause theres no shorts to squeeze in the stocks. When the spi gets smacked down arbers will sell stock buy spi (in theory) but they don't need to cover the next day. They'll just keep their 'inventory' till the next opportunity comes along.
Today Instos having a bit of a nibble at banks and miners, but the rest of the mkt is just crap.

I really thought last nites action on the dow was quite bullish. No follow-thru here today. 

Hope u're having a good day


----------



## MRC & Co

Ok I get you, based on no shorts to squeeze.  Yeh, I'm not trading today, but looks aweful!


----------



## nunthewiser

You guys  talking about the U.S in regards to the short side of things ?


----------



## skyQuake

nunthewiser said:


> You guys  talking about the U.S in regards to the short side of things ?




Aus, all SPI based.

Anyways, someone else beside me think thats a false brk on the SPI?


----------



## Trembling Hand

HSI, HHI, Nk,K200, EUR Try try trying to get through the top.

No luck yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

May I add lots of Iceturds on the trail higher today.


----------



## Naked shorts

Trembling Hand said:


> May I add lots of Iceturds on the trail higher today.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

For those that know, do these sorts of numbers popping up in the queue actually mean anything? 

I noticed them a lot last week, Thursday, Friday etc.  I notice sometimes they disappear and re-appear or they might swap over, from bid to ask and it seems that it appears to go the opposite way once these appear, unless they start getting hit?....or I might just be delusional


----------



## white_goodman

just spoofing in the order book, they do it away from market as they dont wanna get hit, you will find they soon dissappear once price starts getting close to them... there not real orders


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

white_goodman said:


> just spoofing in the order book, they do it away from market as they dont wanna get hit, you will find they soon dissappear once price starts getting close to them... there not real orders




Ok, soo...the point of doing that would be what? Big numbers on both sides, then disappear when price gets there, achieves? 

They don't always disappear? Pretty sure sometimes I've seen price right on them and they don't go anywhere, price just comes back a few ticks then they might disappear.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ok, soo...the point of doing that would be what? Big numbers on both sides, then disappear when price gets there, achieves?
> 
> They don't always disappear? Pretty sure sometimes I've seen price right on them and they don't go anywhere, price just comes back a few ticks then they might disappear.




Its all part of the game of taking order flow reading away. And it has worked spectacularly.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Its all part of the game of taking order flow reading away. And it has worked spectacularly.




Taking it away? They think people that can read order flow won't know its a game? _I_ thought it was a game and I can't even read order flow lol.

It doesn't bother me, I just saw it a couple of times, wondered if it actually made any difference or if it was indeed these "games" going on.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Taking it away? They think people that can read order flow won't know its a game? _I_ thought it was a game and I can't even read order flow lol.




Guess you're really messing up the Arbs & bots hey? Hitting their spoofs and teaching the Spoofters a lesson or two.


----------



## Naked shorts

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ok, soo...the point of doing that would be what? Big numbers on both sides, then disappear when price gets there, achieves?
> 
> They don't always disappear? Pretty sure sometimes I've seen price right on them and they don't go anywhere, price just comes back a few ticks then they might disappear.




Im not too sure about spi, but on 6e I normally look for icebergs around these points. Here is a video I took a little while ago... visible size appears on the bid at 1.4535 and 1.4534, then watch at 1.4537 and 1.4536 as the orders on the ask are just refreshed as soon as someone tries to front run the size. I have two 'time and sales' running, one for everything and another for orders that are 10+ (on the bottom left), if you watch this you can see that the iceberg on the ask is full of large orders, its not all just crap. Sometimes the visible size disappears, sometimes it doesn't... in this video it doesn't.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BV62rUzFis4&fmt=22
(watch in HD otherwise you cant read the numbers)

Its all over within a few seconds of the video, so you have to watch close.


----------



## MRC & Co

Those big orders are a joke.  

They are at market sometimes, on top of a real 40 lot for example, but the guy (human) putting them on the 40 lots knows his que position, so he will pull the rest of the orders (100 lots) once most of the 40 is gone.  Which makes order flow, even at market, exceptionally hard to read.  This is not a bot, but I'm not sure the human knows WTF he is doing either!  Part of very very weird style.  Add that style which does incredible amounts of volume, to a bot that targets volume, and you get a really farked up order flow.


----------



## Largesse

^ LOL


----------



## Largesse

i sense much... bitterness


----------



## MRC & Co

Largesse said:


> i sense much... bitterness




No, you learn to read a chart much better and get better at correlation trading off of this, but wait until you start sizing up on a live market and work out what is real in the book!  

I look forward to it.......


----------



## Largesse

i can only imagine! 


Nikkei here i come


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Naked shorts said:


> Im not too sure about spi, but on 6e I normally look for icebergs around these points. Here is a video I took a little while ago... visible size appears on the bid at 1.4535 and 1.4534, then watch at 1.4537 and 1.4536 as the orders on the ask are just refreshed as soon as someone tries to front run the size. I have two 'time and sales' running, one for everything and another for orders that are 10+ (on the bottom left), if you watch this you can see that the iceberg on the ask is full of large orders, its not all just crap. Sometimes the visible size disappears, sometimes it doesn't... in this video it doesn't.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BV62rUzFis4&fmt=22
> (watch in HD otherwise you cant read the numbers)
> 
> Its all over within a few seconds of the video, so you have to watch close.




Yeah, thats the sort of stuff I mean, sometimes it goes, sometimes it stays. I dunno how you tell if its an iceberg or real or whatever, I don't get the lingo yet   Won't all markets turn to this, as things get more advanced and automated?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Largesse said:


> Nikkei here i come




SPI  :swear: 
Nikkei :horse::sleeping:
K200 :bananasmi
HSI :jump: :burn:


----------



## Largesse

how are you finding getting fills when you hit market on the seng?

and how big a move are you looking for when you get in?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Largesse said:


> how are you finding getting fills when you hit market on the seng?



You can't unless you're talking 1-2 lots. With any decent size Fuhgeddaboutit!



Largesse said:


> and how big a move are you looking for when you get in?



 anywhere from  4 to 400 ticks


----------



## Naked shorts

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah, thats the sort of stuff I mean, sometimes it goes, sometimes it stays. I dunno how you tell if its an iceberg or real or whatever, I don't get the lingo yet   Won't all markets turn to this, as things get more advanced and automated?




Depends on the market participants. Things are already very advanced and automated everywhere. Just wait for all the pits to be abolished and then we are finally there.


----------



## MRC & Co

Naked shorts said:


> Depends on the market participants. Things are already very advanced and automated everywhere. Just wait for all the pits to be abolished and then we are finally there.




Most pits are already dead, they became electronic a long time ago, but even then, the algos flood the market with all forms of 'non paper' transactions, which means the portion of the pie to be made by local (or any form of smaller time-frame) traders is smaller and smaller.  The money there now, is not nearly as abundant as what was apparently there years ago.  Read the article on 'the flipper' Paul Rotter, which is relatively new, that is nothing compared to what is happening now in order flows.  

Of course, position/swing trading on larger timeframes won't be affected much at all, but then again, there isn't the 1000s of % a year to be made position trading so you need a much bigger account.......


----------



## Largesse

Naked shorts said:


> Depends on the market participants. Things are already very advanced and automated everywhere. Just wait for all the pits to be abolished and then we are finally there.




Naked, 

What the F is your signature!?


----------



## Naked shorts

Largesse said:


> Naked,
> 
> What the F is your signature!?




http://dealbreaker.com/2010/02/horse-semen-scalding-hot-coffe.php

I fkin hate the dude


----------



## Largesse

As a rule I am cautious about clicking any link that has the words 'horse' and 'semen' in it.... but i'll do it for you just this once


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Read the article on 'the flipper' Paul Rotter, which is relatively new, that is nothing compared to what is happening now in order flows.



How new is relatively new? Like trader monthly still alive new?
http://www.trading-naked.com/library/paul-rotter-trader-monthly.pdf


----------



## MRC & Co

Naked shorts said:


> How new is relatively new? Like trader monthly still alive new?
> http://www.trading-naked.com/library/paul-rotter-trader-monthly.pdf




Yes, something like that.  04 and they seeing 'the flipper' and auto spreaders are coming into their first markets.  

A few years later and algos are a wash throughout global markets with huge sums of money to back them.  I would like to see how much 'the flipper' makes in comparison to what he did make........

Not long in my book.


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, something like that.  04 and they seeing 'the flipper' and auto spreaders are coming into their first markets.
> 
> A few years later and algos are a wash throughout global markets with huge sums of money to back them.  I would like to see how much 'the flipper' makes in comparison to what he did make........
> 
> Not long in my book.



True, would be interesting to know what his performance figures are now these days.. will see if I can get a his fund prospectus to start with.


----------



## Broadway

Interesting how we went up 250 from the greek news last thursday.
Seems the sky didnt fall starting with greece.
The pros must view these news events as dip-buy opportunities.
And now the media stories about europe are starting up again.
Whenever I read 'unnamed sources' in europe stories, I wonder who they are.


----------



## skyQuake

Whos up for an nice fri fade?


----------



## Kryzz

Does anyone take into account XJO/SPI statistics when trading? I've been having a play around in excel a little bit and tried to figure out stats which may be of any help, ie, the % of times the index closed x times higher.

For example, the percentage the XJO has closed higher 2 consecutive times sits at 27%, could this be reason to go short on day 3? (i.e. there's a >70% chance the index will close lower? (this data only goes back to late 2001, in the process of getting more historical data this week). We've now had 6 consecutive higher closes, surely the index has to fall tomorrow right?

Sorry if this post seems a bit of ramble just thinking aloud, statistics coupled with other analysis, does it help? (attached is the excel file i'm working with, could be totally wrong tho)


Cheers,


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Kryzz said:


> For example, the percentage the XJO has closed higher 2 consecutive times sits at 27%, could this be reason to go short on day 3? (i.e. there's a >70% chance the index will close lower? (this data only goes back to late 2001, in the process of getting more historical data this week). We've now had 6 consecutive higher closes, surely the index has to fall tomorrow right?




Just because we have had 6 higher closes makes it more likely? I'm pretty sure its still a 70% chance every time it occurs, just because it hasn't done it the last few times doesn't mean this time its definitely going to, its still the same chances, 70% last time, 70% this time, doesn't build up because it didn't do it last time. 

Thats how I see it anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand

what a joke this thing is.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> what a joke this thing is.




LOL, that's the craziest thing I've ever seen.  Too bad they weren't stop markets, would have been a 250+ tick move with a lot of busted orders!!!  Nice carnage for the SFE to clean up!


----------



## cutz

So what was it all about ?


----------



## prawn_86

Hope you cleaned up enough to pay for lunch MRC :


----------



## dutchie

cutz said:


> So what was it all about ?




Unemployment rate rose by 0.1%.

Shows what it will be like when the coming down move happens.


----------



## cutz

Gotcha Dutchie,

Yeah, it was the telly but I didn't think much of it, goes to show how jumpy the markets are at the moment.


----------



## prawn_86

dutchie said:


> Unemployment rate rose by 0.1%.
> 
> Shows what it will be like when the coming down move happens.




Are you sure that was the reason? As it was expected to be at 5.3% anyway, it didnt do anything much to the currency markets, it was the jobs created which was way below forecast.


----------



## dutchie

prawn_86 said:


> Are you sure that was the reason? As it was expected to be at 5.3% anyway, it didnt do anything much to the currency markets, it was the jobs created which was way below forecast.




Start of decline 11.30 am
Release of figures (ABS) 11.30 am


----------



## MRC & Co

dutchie said:


> Start of decline 11.30 am
> Release of figures (ABS) 11.30 am




Na, wasn't unemployment, that was only the initial move.  Was a weird order.  Not sure what was happening but there were 1000 lots on every ask 8 minutes after unemployment.  Nobody sells like that......

Made plenty for lunch Prawn!  ha ha.  But in the process of giving it all back!  

Unemployment 'rate' shouldn't matter anyways as it is skewed by 'definitions'.  Labour force participation etc.  The raw figure was +400 when expectations were +15,000 which is far worse but still doesn't explain the way the SPI moved down in any way.


----------



## white_goodman

dutchie said:


> Start of decline 11.30 am
> Release of figures (ABS) 11.30 am




absolutely nothing to do with that


----------



## Largesse

:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk: 	:swear:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Largesse said:


> :bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk: 	:swear:




Uh??


----------



## Trembling Hand

hehehehe :fu:. Welcome to the life of constant frustration, pain, torment and regret.

Oh and it *never *gets any better.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> hehehehe :fu:. Welcome to the life on constant frustration, pain, torment and regret.
> 
> Oh and it *never *gets any better.




LOL! Confidence booster right there :bananasmi

:fu: <--- that smilie rocks


----------



## Largesse

Trembling Hand said:


> hehehehe :fu:. Welcome to the life of constant frustration, pain, torment and regret.
> 
> Oh and it *never *gets any better.





Such a good feeling dumping three GOOD profitable days trading in half an hour.


----------



## white_goodman




----------



## Largesse

Drunk on the reg, good times on the reg, yachts on the reg, sex on the reg


----------



## Naked shorts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rly1ZZ076G8


----------



## Naked shorts

Largesse said:


> :bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk:	:bonk: 	:swear:




looks like this is going around atm


----------



## Edwood

Largesse said:


> :bonk:    :bonk:    :bonk:    :bonk:    :bonk:    :bonk:    :bonk:    :bonk:     :swear:





buy the Wed into opex, sell the Monday after Largesse 

Altho looking like the sellign is early this time....


----------



## Naked shorts

Edwood said:


> buy the Wed into opex, sell the Monday after Largesse
> 
> Altho looking like the sellign is early this time....




wtf does opex mean? do you mean opec? or do you mean open?


----------



## Edwood

sorry opex = options expiry - triple witching last week.


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> buy the Wed into opex, sell the Monday after Largesse
> 
> Altho looking like the sellign is early this time....




Why sell the Monday?

Seasonality stats I've seen are bullish leading into 'opex', not after........


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> Seasonality stats I've seen are bullish leading into 'opex', not after........




exactly hence buy the Wed leading into Opex
and sell the Monday after Opex - tends to sell off the following week


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> exactly hence buy the Wed leading into Opex
> and sell the Monday after Opex - tends to sell off the following week




But isn't 'opex' the Thursday?  So why wait for Monday?


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> But isn't 'opex' the Thursday?  So why wait for Monday?




ah yeah sorry obviously you're thinking local and this is an SPI thread so I should've made it clearer   >> expiry in the US & Europe is 3rd Friday.  since Aus tends to follow the US (all sessions anyway, in-hours as Trembling Hand has shown is often counter-US or gap fade) then its 'usually' a good play to buy into opex & sell after


----------



## MRC & Co

Edwood said:


> ah yeah sorry obviously you're thinking local and this is an SPI thread so I should've made it clearer   >> expiry in the US & Europe is 3rd Friday.




Ah yes, I get you now.  Confused me when you were talking about Largesse who trades the SPI.

Cheers


----------



## Edwood

MRC & Co said:


> Ah yes, I get you now.  Confused me when you were talking about Largesse who trades the SPI.
> 
> Cheers




no worries - apologies for the confusion 
I pointed this strategy out to Largesse a while back but he didn't seem that interested, just thought I'd mention it again given his frustrations with Wednesday
dyor & all that


----------



## sammy84

It doesn't get more exciting than this.......:sleeping:


----------



## skyQuake

BHP's range is 14c today zzz, banks cancelling each other out.
HSI is where the action is


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just LOFinL

Can the mods shut this thread down? We now know what is going to happen to the SPI next,

NOTHING!!

19 point range with 2.5 tick 5 min ATR. Its a joke!! 


:fish: this thing is more interesting than watching the SPI!


----------



## nomore4s

Trembling Hand said:


> :fish: this thing is more interesting than watching the SPI!




Moves about as much and as fast too:


----------



## Largesse

best market ever


----------



## Naked shorts

Largesse said:


> best market ever




how much longer are you stuck on this thing?


----------



## Largesse

forever, just got more size as well 

still money in it, just have to adjust


----------



## Naked shorts

Largesse said:


> forever, just got more size as well



well u need as much size as you can get to make anything out of it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Largesse said:


> still money in it, just have to adjust




To what? going nowhere?

Its had a 12 point range and that was set in the first 1/2 hour.

Oh look out its just taken out the lows. Range now 14 points. Wow!!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Largesse said:


> forever, just got more size as well
> 
> still money in it, just have to adjust




adjust to what, there's nothing happening!


----------



## baby_swallow

hello world.
new member testing....


----------



## baby_swallow

XJO & SPI200 CHART APRIL 9, 2010 NOON


----------



## cutz

Nice charts baby_swallow,

So is the spi gonna get trashed in the weeks to come ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

cutz said:


> So is the spi gonna get trashed in the weeks to come ?




depends on which one of the 8 indicators on that chart you believe.


----------



## baby_swallow

yep.. its due for a good haircut alright..
but i wouldnt bet big yet or i'll get my asrse kicked..
i'll stay nibble for now until a good formation sets up...


----------



## LKR

Trembling Hand said:


> depends on which one of the 8 indicators on that chart you believe.




The more the merrier, they are great at showing you what happens in the market once its happened. Id have 30 tell me what has just happened, now if only i had a time machine....... 

I got it! anticipation. Is there an indicator for that?


----------



## baby_swallow

LKR said:


> The more the merrier, they are great at showing you what happens in the market once its happened. Id have 30 tell me what has just happened, now if only i had a time machine.......
> 
> I got it! anticipation. Is there an indicator for that?




The indicators are there as a guide to tell you whats the market been doing. Its up to the trader to draw up his/her conclusion on "What will happen next?".
btw.. i still have to meet a person who made money out of indicator signals.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

baby_swallow said:


> btw.. i still have to meet a person who made money out of indicator signals.





Sooo...why use them?


----------



## baby_swallow

cutz said:


> Nice charts baby_swallow,
> 
> So is the spi gonna get trashed in the weeks to come ?




only time will tell....
i prefer it breaking the 5000 level before establishing my long term shorts.


----------



## baby_swallow

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Sooo...why use them?




please read my post...it explains what are they for.
most newbies mistakenly use their signals to trading... (like i used to,lol..)


----------



## LKR

baby_swallow said:


> The indicators are there as a guide to tell you whats the market been doing. Its up to the trader to draw up his/her conclusion on "What will happen next?".
> btw.. i still have to meet a person who made money out of indicator signals.




What wrong with price time and volume?

imo you need a practical application, a high probability framework to trade from. What framework does MACD, MA, STOCK, RSI, BB BANDS thrown at a chart give you? They give you a pretty picture, but thats about it.


----------



## LKR

baby_swallow said:


> only time will tell....
> i prefer it breaking the 5000 level before establishing my long term shorts.




Baby swallow, you are using a major bullish break of resistance, as long term shorting opputunity? What could you possibly see in this market that would make you want to short? Other then a complete guess?

You want to follow strength, and where has strength been the last 18 months? In demand, im not saying go and buy everything now, but i wouldnt be opening any long term shorts, thats for sure. Not until i can identify strength in supply.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LKR said:


> Baby swallow, you are using a major bullish break of resistance, as long term shorting opputunity? What could you possibly see in this market that would make you want to short? Other then a complete guess?
> 
> You want to follow strength, and where has strength been the last 18 months? In demand, im not saying go and buy everything now, but i wouldnt be opening any long term shorts, thats for sure. Not until i can identify strength in supply.




I wouldn't dump on the idea just because its a break. I would guess that by the time we get over 5000, well over, we will be actually pretty worn out. Wouldn't be the first time a lot of energy has gone into breaking an "important" level to then tank back into the range.


----------



## baby_swallow

LKR said:


> Baby swallow, you are using a major bullish break of resistance, as long term shorting opputunity? What could you possibly see in this market that would make you want to short? Other then a complete guess?
> 
> You want to follow strength, and where has strength been the last 18 months? In demand, im not saying go and buy everything now, but i wouldnt be opening any long term shorts, thats for sure. Not until i can identify strength in supply.




sorry LKR i didnt explain myself clearly.
First of all, i'm a daytrader, so I rarely hold overnight position, except shorts on big signals. When I say "long term shorts" I meant up to 3 days the most.
You're right, that is a major bullish break. But every bullish break when price get over extended, (ie. late comers taking up long position), its followed by a retracement. Thats where I come in.


----------



## baby_swallow

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't dump on the idea just because its a break. I would guess that by the time we get over 5000, well over, we will be actually pretty worn out. Wouldn't be the first time a lot of energy has gone into breaking an "important" level to then tank back into the range.




Amen, Trembling Hand, Amen.


----------



## LKR

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't dump on the idea just because its a break. I would guess that by the time we get over 5000, well over, we will be actually pretty worn out. Wouldn't be the first time a lot of energy has gone into breaking an "important" level to then tank back into the range.




Im not saying it won't happen, i stated that once evidence appears that strength now lies in the downside i would then position. Im not going to take a short at 5000 just because i "think" its an important swing level. I need evidence.

You could have done the same thing at the magic "80" cent level AUD/USD.

But your right, alot of effort has gone into this latest rally. We will run out of "energy" soon. Just got to wait to identify the signs.


----------



## LKR

baby_swallow said:


> sorry LKR i didnt explain myself clearly.




Lol when you say to me long term, i assume 8 - 12 months, not 3 days. 

Which is why i was gob smacked at your long term short view on no long term reversal evidence.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't dump on the idea just because its a break. I would guess that by the time we get over 5000, well over, we will be actually pretty worn out. Wouldn't be the first time a lot of energy has gone into breaking an "important" level to then tank back into the range.




personally at 5000 i would be monitoring the progress of "Buy with Open arms" threads here and across the street.


----------



## Edwood

baby_swallow said:


> First of all, i'm a daytrader, so I rarely hold overnight position, except shorts on big signals. When I say "long term shorts" I meant up to 3 days the most.  But every bullish break when price get over extended, (ie. late comers taking up long position), its followed by a retracement. Thats where I come in.




Did you hear about the trader called Ivan?


----------



## ezylay

I am new  to this, I just wanted to share with you all something I found helpful and technical and for free about trading the SPI Futures
The levels are done pre market and they seem on the mark.

I thought since it was free and non-affiliated and many can benefit from it, if not even worth a look.

I did not mean to upset the authorities here as I got a warning..

I apologies…..


----------



## baby_swallow

Edwood said:


> Did you hear about the trader called Ivan?




nope... what about him?
________________________________________________________
Leopards break into the temple and drink to the dregs what is in the sacrificial pitchers; this is repeated over and over again; finally it can be calculated in advance, and it becomes a part of the ceremony - Kafka


----------



## skyQuake

baby_swallow said:


> nope... what about him?




Running joke among ASFers, start at post 1 of this thread.


----------



## johnnyg

Anyone heard from Ivan lately? And how he's going? Only sorta relation I can find to this thread is a post from him on a Facebook FML thread saying he dropped 200K in a week.

Hope he's going OK.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

johnnyg said:


> Anyone heard from Ivan lately? And how he's going? Only sorta relation I can find to this thread is a post from him on a Facebook FML thread saying he dropped 200K in a week.
> 
> Hope he's going OK.




Last I heard from him was back in November. I asked him how he and his trading was going because we hadn't seen him around here for a long time. 



> My trading is alright. Very hard period for someone like me to make money, save a few days, when markets make extreme moves.


----------



## Broadway

Greek bailout news should be interesting for the markets, might provide some range or volatility.
Euro is up, usd down, copper and oil have opened up.
Be interesting to see the size of trades on the hod today.


----------



## ezylay

Just got this so i thought i'll share it... it's not mine..so shoot me if it all goes bad. The source was quicktick.blogspot.com.

I hope i'm doing everythiong as requested. by the book.  I'm quoting the source and not making any claims its mine or any trading tips.  As per rules.

Hope it helps you all.

Kat


_Hi All

As mention in yesterdays update, we are heading toward 5020s zone, with possible broading pattern top of 5043.
The daily DSR Line is 4996, with intraday levels at 4974. PP is 4969, Pivot Range is 4964-4983.
This morning 4996-5001 can act as a resistance area, with support at 4980.
Below 4980 POC at 4976-78, below that 4968.
Above 4996, next level is 5020-23.
All depends where the market opens but above are the key levels.

Enjoy your trading_.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ezylay 

Spi levels

:sleeping:

they are like bump holes. .... .. ... . ..


----------



## cutz

There's a level at every level.


----------



## baby_swallow

ezylay said:


> Just got this so i thought i'll share it... it's not mine..so shoot me if it all goes bad. The source was quicktick.blogspot.com.
> 
> I hope i'm doing everythiong as requested. by the book.  I'm quoting the source and not making any claims its mine or any trading tips.  As per rules.
> 
> Hope it helps you all.
> 
> Kat
> 
> 
> _Hi All
> 
> As mention in yesterdays update, we are heading toward 5020s zone, with possible broading pattern top of 5043.
> The daily DSR Line is 4996, with intraday levels at 4974. PP is 4969, Pivot Range is 4964-4983.
> This morning 4996-5001 can act as a resistance area, with support at 4980.
> Below 4980 POC at 4976-78, below that 4968.
> Above 4996, next level is 5020-23.
> All depends where the market opens but above are the key levels.
> 
> Enjoy your trading_.




its gonna be an interesting week...so get ready your mouse trap....errr bulltrap. spi is heading to stratosphere!
__________________________________________________ ______
Leopards break into the temple and drink to the dregs what is in the sacrificial pitchers; this is repeated over and over again; finally it can be calculated in advance, and it becomes a part of the ceremony - Kafka


----------



## ezylay

Hi trembling Hand

I'm just getting my head around it.  they seem to be levels of support and restsiance.

Kat


----------



## nomore4s

ezylay said:


> Hi trembling Hand
> 
> I'm just getting my head around it.  they seem to be levels of support and restsiance.
> 
> Kat




Without having a close look they are probably Pivot points or a variation on Pivot points


----------



## johnnyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Last I heard from him was back in November. I asked him how he and his trading was going because we hadn't seen him around here for a long time.




One of the best pieces of advice I've seen on this forum was given from T/H to Ivan, something along the lines of that he should put 380K out of his 400K into a savings account and try to replicate the results using 20K. 

Would of saved our friend alot of heartache and $$$.


----------



## Broadway

Perhaps second false break of 5000?
Anyone shorting here?


----------



## baby_swallow

Broadway said:


> Perhaps second false break of 5000?
> Anyone shorting here?




we let this speeding antilope do the running first until it gets tired... and then we move in for a kill.....
_______________________________________________________
Leopards break into the temple and drink to the dregs what is in the sacrificial pitchers; this is repeated over and over again; finally it can be calculated in advance, and it becomes a part of the ceremony - Kafka


----------



## professor_frink

baby_swallow said:


> we let this speeding antilope do the running first until it gets tired... and then we move in for a kill.....
> _______________________________________________________
> Leopards break into the temple and drink to the dregs what is in the sacrificial pitchers; this is repeated over and over again; finally it can be calculated in advance, and it becomes a part of the ceremony - Kafka


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


>




I think,,, he's referring to himself as a Cheetah that will strike at exactly the right time.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

>Apocalypto< said:


> I think,,, he's referring to himself as a Cheetah that will strike at exactly the right time.




Perhaps he should worry about the Lions and Hyenas that will come along and steal his kill lol


----------



## Broadway

baby_swallow said:


> we let this speeding antilope do the running first until it gets tired... and then we move in for a kill.....
> _______________________________________________________
> Leopards break into the temple and drink to the dregs what is in the sacrificial pitchers; this is repeated over and over again; finally it can be calculated in advance, and it becomes a part of the ceremony - Kafka




Things look a little unwell today.
usd/usb rising.
copper oil falling.
Spi below 5000 now.
maybe the antilope is getting away.


----------



## MRC & Co

Broadway said:


> Things look a little unwell today.
> usd/usb rising.
> copper oil falling.
> Spi below 5000 now.
> maybe the antilope is getting away.




Yes, I'm starting to get very very nervous about this rally.  The downside risks looks much much greater than much more upside.  

I want to look into more about this 'new bank regulation', seeing if it will affect the credit cycle for banks which may blindside those looking at a liquidity fuelled rally.

Also, markets always frontrun turning points in the figures, generally by about 2 quarters I believe.  Markets are starting to look more and more at Soverign fiscal deleveraging, with the rating agencies quick now to slap a 'downgrade watch' or a legit downgrade on Soverign debt, which is what these Western economies have used to create enough liquidity to fuel this entire rally.  Most corporates are now very efficient, having consolidated and streamlined their business to survive, but the tax raises in the US etc as of next year and similar measures to be implemented by other Governments, will be the basis of a hit to top line growth of corporates into the future.  The thing is, Western economies are now on their 'risk limits' so they have no more liquidity availible with rates already near zero and fiscal consolidation a must.  

The other thing they need is a depreciation of their currencies to reverse flows in their trade deficits, but China/Japan and other major global exporters, also want a lower currency.  Then you have another major exporter in Germany who is tied in with the other EUR economies and is loving this currency depreciation so the other deficit countries in the EZ cannot reverse this process without structural fundamental economic changes.

All doesn't look good into the future for me and I think markets will frontrun this.  

Rally is on the final low volume dregs of retail punters who are desperate to catch some of the rally.  Just wait until someone big comes in and takes it to these guys, won't be hard to stop this rally!  And no volume so downside could be absolutely explosive if there is a shuffle for the exits.


----------



## ezylay

Just got the update from quicktick.blogspot.com
though i'll share it.Hope it helps.

I like the lower high good spot for stoploss level.

Kat.

_Hi All
Yesterday the SPI hit the top of our channel and reversed down.
Overnight we now have a lower high at 5034, and that a key level.
The Major low is 4993, and if we break that expect a strong move down.
The Daily DSR Line is 5011, matching Intraday at 5011, PP 4969, Pivot Range 5011-5032, POC 5022
We are trading at near key levels.  5013-5005-8 is important for morning play.
Below 5005, and we are heading toward 4993, if we have a close below this major low expect further selling toward PP.
On the upside above 5013 and next resistance area is 5027. And of course major high 5030 zone.
Enjoy your trading._


----------



## Broadway

Last night's fall was baked in from tues avo/wed night. You could see the volume in the usd and commodities. GS was the trigger but the market had it coming anyway.

btw, there was volume on the way down, with some fairly good volume at the bottom in commodities and commodity currencies.

May take a few days though. And there may  still be a three wave down.
Eventually it will turn out to be a dip-buy situation.


----------



## ezylay

Just log on to my account.

Thank you quicktick for the 80 pts.

Still holding.

Kat


----------



## cutz

ezylay said:


> Just log on to my account.
> 
> Thank you quicktick for the 80 pts.
> 
> Still holding.
> 
> Kat




Why the same comment on two threads, who evens cares.


----------



## Broadway

ezylay said:


> Just log on to my account.
> 
> Thank you quicktick for the 80 pts.
> 
> Still holding.
> 
> Kat




You are the blogger, arent you ezylay? You both have the same grammar.
Why dont you just come out and say you are the blogger, like others do?


----------



## Broadway

Spi is interesting lately.
I think the spi has been kept low by the Greek issue far more than the people realise.
ES has made new 12 month highs, but the spi is 140 points off its highs last week on 15th/16th. The spi is languishing with the euro. And the spi only bounced a little last night with the euro.
I have a theory about this.
With the euro falling alot in the last 9 days, the usd has been rising alot.
This has kept oil and copper prices subdued.
Hence bhp, hence the spi.
But the interesting thing is I have been watching big bullish trades over the last few days in the spi but no rise in price yet.
Even the Aud made a good rally last night without a big spi move.

So going forward, is the spi going to continue to be a reflection of euro movements?
Especially if we remain so linked to the usd?


----------

