# Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak



## greggles (24 January 2020)

I've always thought that when the end comes for humankind on this planet, it will be a highly contagious deadly virus that wipes us out. It will be nature's way of getting rid of what is throwing the balance of nature out.

With the world's population continuing to increase at a rate of knots, and hygiene and disease prevention at consistently low levels in the third and developing worlds, I think these kind of outbreaks will only increase in frequency.

Assuming that the current Wuhan and other upcoming outbreaks don't wipe us out, one of the questions raised by these incidents is the impact they can have on the global economy. The rate at which the infections can spread is staggering, with cases already being reported in a number of countries where infected Chinese nationals who were in the vicinity of Wuhan at the time of the outbreak have travelled. The true extent of the outbreak is something we cannot be sure of, nor how far and wide it may spread before it is eventually contained.

What should our response be as investors when outbreaks like this occur? The impact has the potential to be far more profound and long lasting than other market moving black swan events such at the September 11 terrorist attacks and the 2008 GFC. If China's economy is crippled by an outbreak that cannot be easily contained, the consequences could be devastating globally.

Personally, I don't trust the Chinese government to be upfront and honest about what is really happening inside its borders. Their priority is going to be to quell panic and maintain order. Truth may well fall by the wayside as a result.

When I think long and hard about the possible consequences, it can get pretty scary. Is it unreasonable to think that imports out of and exports into China could be suspended if it is unable to be contained quickly enough? Tourism, retail sales, travel and industrial production could be hit very hard as confidence plummets.

400 million people in China are expected to travel across the country this weekend to celebrate the lunar new year. The timing of this current outbreak is especially bad.

The 2003 SARS outbreak in China cost the world economy $40 billion. A total of 8,098 were infected and 774 killed in 37 different countries. Wuhan has a population of 11 million. What if 250,000 people are infected? 500,000? A million?

With Australia's economy on shaky ground already, what will a difficult to contain SARS virus outbreak have on our economy? If China sneezes, we get a cold. Well, China is sneezing at the moment, literally. The question is, how big is that economic sneeze going to be?


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## Knobby22 (24 January 2020)

Agree.
The famous (now deceased) Kurt Vonnegut wrote a book sort of related.

https://www.booktopia.com.au/galapagos-kurt-vonnegut/book/9780586090459.html


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## Dona Ferentes (24 January 2020)

greggles said:


> I've always thought that when the end comes for humankind on this planet, it will be a highly contagious deadly virus that wipes us out. It will be nature's way of getting rid of what is throwing the balance of nature out...



I thought it wasn't in the interest of a virus to wipe out the host. A _virus can_ only multiply in a cell, so it's not in its interest to kill off all people. I remember but can't source an article about the inverse relationship between severity of the outbreak and its longevity. Also, populations that form colonies of closely related individuals (bees, ants, also rats, bats, humans) are more susceptible to transmission. That and incubation times.

One factor playing with coronavirus is that symptoms don't manifest for 10-12 days. With modern transportation on a global scale, containment becomes much harder. The Chunyun (Lunar New Year) migration of more than 2 billion passenger movements in the 15 day period coming up would be looming high in the PRC response.


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## SirRumpole (24 January 2020)

I would expect airlines to be adversely affected if the outbreaks continue as well as tourism, hotels, casino , cinemas and shopping centres, ie places where people congregate..

Internet marketers would benefit as people desert the stores even more.

Medical providers, makers of face masks etc would benefit especially if one came up with a cure or vaccine.


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## greggles (24 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> One factor playing with coronavirus is that symptoms don't manifest for 10-12 days. With modern transportation on a global scale, containment becomes much harder. The Chunyun (Lunar New Year) migration of more than 2 billion passenger movements in the 15 day period coming up would be looming high in the PRC response.




The CCP cannot possibly control the movements of billions of people completely. It would be hard enough to do so even here in Australia with a population many magnitudes smaller. The incubation period you mentioned is a great worry. Are infected people with normal body temperatures slipping through the containment choke points? We cannot possibly know now, but we will.... soon.

If things get significantly worse, I'd be betting on another spike in the gold price.


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## greggles (25 January 2020)

Conditions appear to be deteriorating in mainland China. 35 million people are now quarantined. Flights and trains into and out of Wuhan are suspended, and public transport within the city has been stopped.

China has reported over 1,280 norovirus cases with the death toll currently at 41. I think that these numbers likely do not reflect the current situation and  are probably based on old information.

Australia announced its first case today, a Chinese male in his 50s who returned from China last week.

Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, United States, Vietnam, and France all have confirmed coronavirus cases.

Residents of Wuhan are reporting that it feels like "doomsday" in the city, with infected patients roaming from hospital to hospital unable to find medical treatment.

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/...d/news-story/772a92d238a629edd2d239626f76fca4


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## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I would expect airlines to be adversely affected if the outbreaks continue as well as tourism, hotels, casino , cinemas and shopping centres, ie places where people congregate.



I note the fall in the price of oil which could plausibly be related to traders expecting a drop in aviation and tourism generally.

Could be other factors at work too but I wouldn’t rule out the idea that someone (institutional investors) have already taken some action due to this issue.


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## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

In terms of the spread of the virus, an issue is just how easily one can travel around the world these days.

Even places which have no direct flights to China and are physically an island or in the middle of nowhere are still only one flight away from somewhere that does have flights to China.

Eg Broken Hill or Tasmania are both physically isolated by distance and being remote or an island. Ultimately though well it’s only a matter of boarding one plane to Melbourne or Sydney and then another one to China and you’re there within a day. That there’s no direct service is only a minor barrier in practice.

Nowhere is really protected by means of distance or physical isolation these days in practice.


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## kahuna1 (25 January 2020)

greggles said:


> The question is, how big is that economic sneeze going to be?




Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ? 

Fear fear and more fear.

Relevance of this flu ? Or likely  ? NOT much.

Ohh I forgot

Ebola ... maybe that is spreading ? 

I want to shake the PM's hand in case I already have it !!


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## moXJO (25 January 2020)

Agree with big K.
Another scare campaign.


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?
> 
> Fear fear and more fear.
> 
> ...




2020 
1st week : potential ww3 
2nd week : australia bush fire 
3rd week : volcanoes erupting. one is a former super volcano. still about to erupt. 
4th week: corona virus 
.... can't wait for next week


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## SirRumpole (25 January 2020)

The lobster industry is taking a hit.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/coronavirus-puts-wa-crayfishing-industry-on-hold/11900668


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## kid hustlr (25 January 2020)

I have a real issue with news . Com being used as a source of info


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## basilio (25 January 2020)

It is scary.  I'm thinking of a city of 11 M people in effective quarantine.  And then another 24 M people also quarantined.  The potential for social unrest seems  skyhigh.

It is already spreading around the world.  They still don't know how virulent it is ie percentage of deaths and how contagious.  And of course there is the risk of further mutation.

In these circumstances I think all stock markets are, well and truly, fully priced.

_*Why is this any worse than normal influenza?*

We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is – and we won’t know until more data comes in. Twenty-six deaths out of 800 reported cases would mean a 3% mortality rate. However, this is likely to be a overestimate since there may be a far larger pool of people who have been infected by the virus but who have not suffered severe enough symptoms to attend hospital and so have not been counted in the data. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. 

Another key unknown, of which scientists should get a clearer idea in the coming weeks, is how contagious the coronavirus is. A crucial difference is that unlike flu, there is no vaccine for the new coronavirus, which means it is more difficult for vulnerable members of the population – elderly people or those with existing respiratory or immune problems – to protect themselves. One sensible step to get the flu vaccine, which will reduce the burden on health services if the outbreak turns into a wider epidemic. 
_
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/24/what-is-the-coronavirus-wuhan-china-virus-symptoms


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

The msm is massively underreporting this, they are taking ccp figures as being true. Positive news from china=>discount, negative news from china=>multiply.


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## basilio (25 January 2020)

Just thinking about the rapidly changing figures on people and countries affected.

I wonder how the stock markets will open after the weekend ?  Could be some serious selling/shorting activity if this continues to deteriorate in the next 36 hours.


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## bonox (25 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I thought it wasn't in the interest of a virus to wipe out the host. A _virus can_ only multiply in a cell, so it's not in its interest to kill off all people.




An 'interest' implies rational thought and, in the case of squillions of independent entities, an over-riding control of those entities which doesn't exist. A virus, like all living entities just exists to live and reproduce. Sometimes, they reach an equilibrium with the host, or in great cases, form a symbiosis, but in this case, like measles and smallpox, they just keep on multiplying and only leave hosts alive by chance, not design. A host naturally resistant will survive and mean the virus will flourish as well, but those infected who are not immune will fall, probably taking the virus with it. Interestingly a virus is really easy to kill - one on a dry surface will die pretty much immediately. It's bacteria you've really got to be proud of in the "survive for ever in super harsh environments then come out and kill everybody" stakes all animals play with the rest of the pathological world.


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Just thinking about the rapidly changing figures on people and countries affected.
> 
> I wonder how the stock markets will open after the weekend ?  Could be some serious selling/shorting activity if this continues to deteriorate in the next 36 hours.




Just my 2 I think the markets will get hammered next week. Volatility is ready to break out to the upside and most major markets are already extended. A lot of companies reporting next week and if there are any negative surprises it will magnify the sell off conversely earnings beats will nullify to an extent the selling pressure.


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## basilio (25 January 2020)

Reporting on quarantine in Wuhan.

Scary xhit.

 Print Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
*Coronavirus traps Wuhan residents in a real life horror movie as Chinese city locks down*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...s-locals-in-a-real-life-horror-movie/11892202


Implications in Australia of similar situation.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-25/wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown-how-has-it-worked/11896630


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## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

fergee said:


> Just my 2 I think the markets will get hammered next week. Volatility is ready to break out to the upside and most major markets are already extended.



Most markets are extended as you say and "due" for correction.

Add in tensions in the Middle East

Add in that things look to be getting more serious with Trump

Now this virus

If the markets don't take a fall then that would almost be getting suspicious.....


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Most markets are extended as you say and "due" for correction.
> 
> Add in tensions in the Middle East
> 
> ...



Throw in the upcoming presidential election in the US and you have a recipe for volatility.


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## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

Just heard that there's 4 people suspected to have it and being tested now in SA.

If at least one of them has it well then that's 3 Australian states. It would be a miracle if it wasn't already in the others too.


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

Got the first case here in Japan this week too. Im going to go buy a "sick mask" tomorrow, I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing them today when I went out.


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## basilio (25 January 2020)

The  situation  is unfolding rapidly across the globe.

The US is evacuating its citizens from Wuhan (no quarantine for them...!) One would hope there are no infected people aboard..
 
*US chartering flight to evacuate citizens from Wuhan*

The US is beginning an operation to evacuate American citizens and diplomats from Wuhan, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has said.

There are around 1,000 Americans in Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, and the embassy is in the process of contacting them to arrange seats on a plane back to the US. Plans are in place for the consulate to close temporarily, the newspaper said.

There are only 230 seats on the plane, according to the WSJ report, and those on board will have to pay the costs entailed. American medical personnel will be on board to treat suspected cases of the coronavirus, and any available seats may be offered to non-US citizens.

Washington was given approval for the operation from China’s Foreign Ministry and other government agencies following negotiations in recent days, the WSJ said.

It is not yet known where the plane will land. 
https://www.theguardian.com/science...ls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases


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## qldfrog (26 January 2020)

https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/epidem...oratoire-p4-chinois-23-02-2017-2106936_24.php
2017 first lab in china opens to handle most dangerous known viruses..
A french chinese  collaboration,located in guess where Wuhan..do what you want with the info but you got it now
Might explain the quick and strong reaction by the Chinese government, and it probably means it is actually big.
Short Qantas if not too late buy csl  i would think..


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## Dona Ferentes (26 January 2020)

> China’s Xi admits to ‘grave, dire situation’



 or is it ...


> fear fear and more fear



and this week's drama?


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## SirRumpole (26 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> or is it ...
> and this week's drama?




I think China would be more likely to try and cover this up to save face and pretend it's in control of the situation.

So, yes, I think it's big.


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think China would be more likely to try and cover this up to save face and pretend it's in control of the situation.



The way it looks to me, just reading the news reports and so on, is that it’s a classic case of a problem kept quiet until it blew up and became undeniable.

Regardless of whether it turns out to be big or not, I’m expecting the market will see it as big until proven otherwise.

As an example of how far it might already have spread, I see on the news that someone in Hobart is being tested due to being a suspected case. Note there that there are no flights which run between China and Tasmania, anyone travelling between the two would go via Melbourne most likely or alternatively another state capital most likely Sydney.

It’s going to get worse before it gets better that’s for sure.


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## So_Cynical (26 January 2020)

I will pick up my masks at the post office on Monday, ordered early last week before the profiteering begun  Coronavirus is well and truly out and near totally out of control.
The implications are potentially massive on both the plus and negative sides.


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## Garpal Gumnut (26 January 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> I will pick up my masks at the post office on Monday, ordered early last week before the profiteering begun  Coronavirus is well and truly out and near totally out of control.
> The implications are potentially massive on both the plus and negative sides.




Australia Post is closed on Monday for Australia Day Holiday. You may not survive until Tuesday. If you no longer live in Australia, survival is not worth it outside of the greatest country in the world. 

gg


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> I will pick up my masks at the post office on Monday, ordered early last week before the profiteering begun



I’ve got the proper masks rated for use with asbestos. Not that I actually do asbestos removal but I’ve got the gear.

Might look a bit over the top wearing that while doing the shopping though with the white suit and all that.....


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## fergee (26 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’ve got the proper masks rated for use with asbestos. Not that I actually do asbestos removal but I’ve got the gear.
> 
> Might look a bit over the top wearing that while doing the shopping though with the white suit and all that.....




Better safe than sorry?


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## Country Lad (26 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I thought it wasn't in the interest of a virus to wipe out the host.




I don’t know about that.  If you have a look at a chart of the growth rate of the human population the exponential increase is very similar to that of a virus.  We are doing a fine job in trying to wipe out our host.

The only difference is the time scales, however if we relate the 12,000 years to the lifespan of our host it is really a blink of the eye.


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## fergee (26 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.lepoint.fr/monde/epidem...oratoire-p4-chinois-23-02-2017-2106936_24.php
> 2017 first lab in china opens to handle most dangerous known viruses..
> A french chinese  collaboration,located in guess where Wuhan..do what you want with the info but you got it now
> Might explain the quick and strong reaction by the Chinese government, and it probably means it is actually big.
> Short Qantas if not too late buy csl  i would think..



Crown casino may see less punters through the doors as well.


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## fergee (26 January 2020)

"China is also suspending from Monday all foreign trips by Chinese holiday tour groups, state media reported." BBC



@Country Lad - Fantastic post


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## Country Lad (26 January 2020)

The SARS coronavirus was badly handled by China which allowed it to spread more swiftly including to other countries.  It opened China to severe criticism from other nations in the way it was badly handled and communicated.

However, when the H7N9 coronavirus hit, China was far more prepared and the response was much swifter and more transparent than it was in the SARS outbreak.  This was likely one reason that the impact was not as high as SARS.

It would appear that the Chinese government acted even more swiftly and very transparently in this case and only time will tell whether the quick and rather extreme action of isolating regions, telling the world, along with a greater preparedness by other countries will help restrict the spread and impact of this coronavirus.


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2020)

One financial implication is that it'll almost certainly add to the woes of retailers.

There's going to be at least some people who avoid crowded places, shopping centres and so on until this is resolved so that ought to mean lower sales particularly of anything not immediately essential (so everyone other than supermarkets etc).


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2020)

fergee said:


> "China is also suspending from Monday all foreign trips by Chinese holiday tour groups, state media reported." BBC



Assuming this isn't a drastic over reaction by China then it would seem to be rather serious indeed if the extent of measures being taken is any indication.


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## fergee (26 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Assuming this isn't a drastic over reaction by China then it would seem to be rather serious indeed if the extent of measures being taken is any indication.



As @qldfrog stated previously looks like Qantas could be ripe for shorting this coming week.


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2020)

One aspect of the markets is that we're in the somewhat unusual situation that there's a significant "event" taking place and that Monday is a public holiday in Australia but is not a holiday for the rest of the world.

So we'll be able to see the international markets' reaction and the effect on particular sectors (eg airlines) before there's a chance to trade on the ASX.


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## qldfrog (26 January 2020)

I have no real clue as to the extent of the cost on the chinese economy but lunar new year is THE big event there, xmas new year in one, massive gifting and entertainment travelling et 
Imagine the cost in australia if all movement was frozen and people stopped shopping at xmas, well so far i think we are at around what 60mil? in cities(rich with $power)  stuck at home watching netflix.
All keym touristic  monuments are closed, even in Bj or Shanghai
And it will go for at least a couple of weeks min, then even so people do not go to restaurant or movies anymore
By the time this is over, i i wi bet dozen of billions dollars hit on chins economy, and when China sneezes Australia gets the avian flu
Short Rio Fortescue too.get gold


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## Smurf1976 (26 January 2020)

fergee said:


> As @qldfrog stated previously looks like Qantas could be ripe for shorting this coming week.




I also wonder about other airlines, large or small and whether listed or not.

If any are close to the edge financially then this could well push them over. Same with retail, hospitality, tourism etc businesses.


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## Value Collector (26 January 2020)

owning stock in the company that produces vaccinations for this will probably be good when they eventually make a vaccine.

In the meantime Shanghai Disney is closed, so I am selling less park tickets, hotel nights, lunches and Mickey Toys.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 January 2020)

The thread is *economic impact* but it's really *human impact *playing out now. 

And to confirm what was always likely to be the case, it's a fast moving situation, and to read things such as:







> Even as state media has praised the official response and urged calm, medical staff posted messages on social media saying the situation was much worse than Beijing admitted and that they lacked supplies and protective clothing, with some working with broken goggles.





> The messages, which included appeals for donations, and videos were taken down by censors. Hospital staff have been ordered not to discuss the situation amid the efforts by the authorities to play down the extent of the crisis.



..can only confirm one's suspicions.


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## notting (26 January 2020)

Weibo post illustrates the dire situation in #Wuhan, where supplies and manpower are all stretched to the thinnest level. The user’s dad passed away yesterday following days of unsuccessful treatment. He was waiting for the cremation center to pick up ...... his father’s body but waited overnight and the body still hasn’t been picked up. The hospitals are now refusing to keep dead bodies of #WuhanCoronavirus patients at the hospitals so they pressure family members of patients to arrange pickup of their dead bodies.
Due to the high demands at crematoriums, cremation centers are overwhelmed with requests and like in this case, they can’t dispatch staff to pick up these bodies from the hospitals. Family members continue to face pressure from hospitals, leaving them extremely distressed and vulnerable to catching the disease and having to keep the body somewhere endangering others.
Food fights a breaking out in stores for big bags of rice as people want to hide away.
Interviewing of workers at cremation centers, confirms that there have been un-identified bodies sent directly to the cremation centers!


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## kahuna1 (26 January 2020)

Oh no ...

my local store has run out of tin foil .... I cant build my hat to protect myself from radio waves.

Seriously, with 7.4 billion people on the planet and a transmission rate of under 3% .... and with a fatal rate even lower, if you catch it .... I would be more likely to be hit by lightening standing during a thunderstorm with a metal golf club.

Ohh I hear thunder ... pity I am not wearing my tin foil hat as well.

Whilst I did read the absurd Lobster price story .... prices at Zero .... well I pay 15 cents per KG ... even $10- per kg. Typical crap story. Fishermen will merely take a break .... whilst exports to the Chinese are a bit lower. Suggesting they stopped totally ... everywhere in China !! Shoot that thunder sounds loud ... 

Japanese have stopped eating lobster ? Or Robster in Japanese ,,,,  so too say Hong Kong .... no all activity has stopped everywhere.

Gee cant get that lightening to hit .... 

Scientifically and I did listen, they are concerned but not that concerned. Low transmission rate adn low fatality rate if you actually get it. Not like say Ebola or the other nastier flu things they had in the past, the head of the Australian scientific guys pointed out it looked less than 5% of the Bird flu or Sars, which had far higher mortality rates.

Maybe crossing against the lights will do it ... tin foil hat .... during a thunderstorm ... crossing in fast flowing traffic with eyes closed and something will occur ?


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## basilio (26 January 2020)

Just wonder how long China can keep control of quarantined cities. The parts that are very concerning is the fact that the virus is mutating and appears to be getting stronger.

I also suspect that if becomes virulent in cities outside China quarantining whole cities will be far more difficult.

We'll see won't we ?

Here is a full quote from the press conference today, from Ma Xiaowei, China’s health commission minister.
_

The transmissibility shows signs of increasing and the ‘walking source of infection’ [where patients have few signs of disease] has made it difficult to control and present the disease.


For this new coronavirus we have not identified the source of the infection and we are not clear about the risk of its mutation and how it spreads. Since this is a new coronavirus there might be some changes in the coming days and weeks, and the danger it poses to people of different ages is also changing.

https://www.theguardian.com/science...oll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case_


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## Smurf1976 (27 January 2020)

notting said:


> Due to the high demands at crematoriums, cremation centers are overwhelmed with requests and like in this case, they can’t dispatch staff to pick up these bodies from the hospitals.



This is the concerning part above all else.

Wuhan is not a small city. It's almost as large as London or Paris or in more Australian terms it's more than twice the size of Sydney or Melbourne. This isn't some small rural village.

A few quick calculations finds that approximately 400 people would die in Wuhan on a normal day. There's nothing untoward about that, it's just maths when you've got such a large population.

Now we've got 56 reported deaths over several days in a place where ~2800 people die every week and yet the crematoriums are overwhelmed and can't cope? Can't cope with literally just a 2% increase in weekly deaths above the average?

This does not add up.

I just can't believe that under normal circumstances they've got however many crematoriums and they're running flat out 24/7 in a manner comparable to an aluminium smelter (off topic but smelters run constantly because actually stopping and restarting is technically rather difficult but that's not the case with a crematorium). One would reasonably think that they could cope with 2% increase in demand over a week, indeed that would be within normal variation anyway.

This does not add up. Something is wrong - either the bodies aren't really sitting around because they can't be disposed of or there's far more dead than 56 people.

56 people - that's literally a bus load of tourists in a city the size of London or Paris and there's no ability to deal with the bodies? Hmm.......


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## sptrawler (27 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Just wonder how long China can keep control of quarantined cities. The parts that are very concerning is the fact that the virus is mutating and appears to be getting stronger.
> _
> https://www.theguardian.com/science...oll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case_



Imagine if it happened in a democratic Country like here, the U.S or U.K.
The Government wouldn't be allowed to shut down a City, they aren't allowed to shut down anything, the public uproar would be deafening.
Hopefully nothing like it happens here.
What would the press say, "they only have the flu, you can't stop them travelling, who do you think you are? We will march in the streets, we will not be told we can't travel".
Lol what a hoot it would be, something like 'shaun of the dead'.


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## notting (27 January 2020)




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## fergee (27 January 2020)

notting said:


>




Have you heard SerpentZA's wife is a doctor? (inside joke if you follow him and c-milk on ADVchina you know)

A lot of reporting coming out next week I think we could see a lot of selling pressure Monday and a PM pop but bulls could push it all aside and "climb the wall of worry" especially if Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Cat, TSLA etc report well, a lot of opposing forces at work here Im going to put my hazz-suit on and go buy some popcorn and get ready to watch the action


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## qldfrog (27 January 2020)

Tiger air and virgin already had scary profit figures.imagine after this
Can you short shares in a company which collapses?
If it stops trading are you not a loser too?


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## Knobby22 (27 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Tiger air and virgin already had scary profit figures.imagine after this
> Can you short shares in a company which collapses?
> If it stops trading are you not a loser too?



They won't go broke, they are owned by 4 major airlines and the company is used to funnel travellers away from Qantas.
Big picture stuff.


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## moXJO (27 January 2020)

Media must be having a slow news week. 
Nothing like a panic to stoke emotions.

Just to compare: The flu is roughly  3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Media must be having a slow news week.
> Nothing like a panic to stoke emotions.
> 
> Just to compare: The flu is roughly  3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths.



An *epidemic* occurs when a disease affects a greater number people than is usual for the locality or one that spreads to areas not usually associated with the disease. 

A *pandemic* is an *epidemic* of world-wide proportions.


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## qldfrog (27 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> An *epidemic* occurs when a disease affects a greater number people than is usual for the locality or one that spreads to areas not usually associated with the disease.
> 
> A *pandemic* is an *epidemic* of world-wide proportions.



when a virus escapes from a lab researching the most potent ones on earth(sure fish market snakes..), you take notice, and China did: they reacted madly fast, think about it
Got pictures of SZ streets empty of cars yesterday, mandatory masks in street and that is in southern China, 900km from Wuhan.
Does anyone think the Chinese gov would see tens of billions of USD go in smoke just to overreact for no reason?
This is BIG and the scale of the chinese measure makes me think it is potentially scary big, you do not quarantine twice the population of Australia for 30 deaths. Epidemic it is, pandemic it will soon be
And here we can not print money to push the can forward, no QE for coro :-(


----------



## qldfrog (27 January 2020)

Our retail figures or carbon emission figures could soon be so irrelevant, Greta and its followers will be happy, but the dolphins may choke on a lot of discarded plastic gloves and masks
Hoping that we will still care about retail figures in 3 months


----------



## kahuna1 (27 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> A *pandemic* is an *epidemic* of world-wide proportions.




I am not sure what I would call my issue .... wearing my tin foil hate, with eyes closed .... in a thunderstorm I crossed and crossed the road .... I was not hit by lightening, nor any cars.

This topic, whilst say SARs and its impacts all be it fleeting on anything ... was akin to the Y2K scare which well ... was total BS ... 

Speaking of Pandemic and other such words, are ... well ... amusing. In a world where a genocide of millions goes ignored, at times even denied, it would be a good thing for some to cease to exist. Sadly its usually the innocent as opposed to the monsters.

In the time I spent typing, which was not long, in 2020 with 13 million starving in Yemen and 250k dead last year, and 300,000 more this year, that's 800 people dead a day, what significance does this threat have in the greater scheme of things ? 

By the time they control and contain this Flu .... or whatever the hell it is ... the grand total will I doubt amount to single day of Yemen's death-toll.

Whilst you or readers are unlikely in the extreme to be hurt by issues in Yemen, we are about as likely ... to get this virus and even less likely it kills us.

Meanwhile whilst distracted in 2017 there were 11,500 bombs and drone strikes via the USA ... a claim of 500 civilian deaths by them, others have it at 35,000 .... and since a single strike at a wedding wiped out 50, at a funeral where they failed to get the person killed 140 and wounded double that ... then the fiasco of the pine nut farmers and 50 killed by accident and double that wounded. Perspective and what the media tells you to pay attention to must be correct ? 

Libya just had yet another massive spike in fighting ,,,, 3 million USA citizens got hit yet again with a massive earthquake and the President did not comment on it for 48 hours when previously it got hit by 6 massive quakes. AID was not released because the person did not like the fact they openly despise him. Little place called *Puerto Rico*

Perspective, importance and well ... distraction ... whilst if you get the Flu or whatever they name this one, so be it ... relevance ? Not a hell of a lot .... ranking ... about the 50th most threatening thing that occurred on this day. Media coverage ? 

Think about it ... if you can ... I note every time I flick past Murdoch Fox news of SKY in Australia they are becoming more and more like FOX in the USA with their coverage. To some its how they think and I accept that, reality is one of perspective not often based upon reality .... or actual threats or even any possible relevance to their lives. Information overload and then we get bored and they move on to the next mouse in the spinning treadmill to distract, amuse, scare or entertain us.


----------



## basilio (27 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> This does not add up. Something is wrong - either the bodies aren't really sitting around because they can't be disposed of or there's far more dead than 56 people.
> 
> 56 people - that's literally a bus load of tourists in a city the size of London or Paris and there's no ability to deal with the bodies? Hmm.......




That crossed my mind as well. It doesn't add up. If China wants other countries to believe them, this anomaly needs to be addressed


----------



## notting (27 January 2020)

People who think an outbreak like this at this time of year  has little impact for traders are idiots and shouldn't be trading.

In China overall travel on Saturday, the first day of the Lunar New Year, dropped 28.8% from a year ago, said Liu Xiaoming, vice minister of transport. Specifically, he noted declines of:

41.6% in civil air travel

41.5% in rail travel

25% for road transport.

On Sunday, China Railway Chengdu also announced it would halt several high-speed train routes — including some to Shanghai — for the next few days, into early February.

Then of course there is the airline industry and we've seen a big plunge in oil prices.
Oil is as a pervasive market mover as rate cuts and rate hikes.
Then of course their is tourism and travel globally for a start.  These are massive industries.
With a low percentage death rate it's certainly not the end of the world.
However there are already huge opportunities emerging.

They are burning through over a million of those stupid moon suits a day and cannot keep up with the medical masks.  CSL has gone through the roof. Cathay Pacific and oil related stocks in the US which were all starting to recover have reversed.
These are great trading opportunities.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 January 2020)

notting said:


> People who think an outbreak like this at this time of year  has little impact for traders are idiots and shouldn't be trading.



Regardless of how it pans out on the medical side, it’s already a significant incident so far as business and financial markets are concerned and will almost certainly get bigger.

How much bigger and how quickly are the unknowns.


----------



## greggles (27 January 2020)

The difference between the current outbreak and the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS is that SARS was not contagious until those infected started showing symptoms. With the current outbreak the virus is contagious within the ten day incubation period, so it is being spread by those infected even before they know they are infected.

The current CCP numbers are 2,800 cases confirmed across China with 80 deaths. I am skeptical of these numbers and believe it is worse. The spread of the virus started in December and here we are a month later with only 2,800 infections in the whole of China? I'm not buying it. 

The truth will come out eventually.


----------



## kahuna1 (27 January 2020)

greggles said:


> With the current outbreak the virus is contagious within the ten day incubation period, so it is being spread by those infected even before they know they are infected.




Yawn ....

In a bad flu season ... 5 million get it .... 300,000 DIE ....

Perspective ? Not in evidence with doomsday cultists !!


----------



## basilio (27 January 2020)

How bad is this virus ? Perhaps the current situation that only" 80 people have died suggests a dangerous but not disastrous situation.

On the other hand consider this :-
Facebook   
 Twitter 
 1h ago 05:33 

China’s state media is reporting of the more than 2,700 people infected with coronavirus, *461 are in a critical condition.* Eighty people are known to have died in China from the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-to-80-with-more-than-2700-cases-live-updates


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## Smurf1976 (27 January 2020)

Biggest issue here so far as markets etc are concerned will be the uncertainty.

It's not like the regular flu with a fairly consistent impact in the background and it's not like, say, a ship sinking where the worst case scenario is loss of the ship + everyone on board and perhaps an oil spill.

With this virus, well at this point in time nobody can say with any certainty what the ultimate outcome will be. What can be said though is that the response from China is several orders of magnitude greater than the officially claimed problem and that rings some serious alarm bells as to what's really going on.


----------



## sptrawler (27 January 2020)

IMO a lot will depend on how the virus is transmitted, whether by hand or airborn, with SARS it was transferred by hand so relatively easy to contain spray and wipe everything. Airborn not so easy without isolation, which seems to be what is happening.
If it is airborn, respirators will be in big demand, not the paper masks people are wearing. Companies like Ansell could see some movement.
Just my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler (27 January 2020)

The first casualty seem to be the crayfish companies, we could end up with some cheap crayfish in Coles and Woolies.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...ng-industry-on-hold/11900668?section=business

Or maybe not.
While the prices have dropped, symbolically, to nothing, it will not necessarily mean locals will be able to access cheaper crayfish in Western Australia.

The cooperative told the ABC it is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the local market, as lobsters can be stored in tanks in the right conditions for many weeks at a time.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 January 2020)

Futures for China's CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices are down 3.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively. Neither index is scheduled to trade until Friday, but Beijing has since extended the public holiday period to Sunday, and it's still unclear if this also applies to the market. 
Hong Kong's Hang Seng will resume on Wednesday.


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## qldfrog (27 January 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...ions-to-be-spent-containing-outbreak/11904270
12 billions: qldfrog's 10 billions is already overtaken.do not forget to short iron Rio and FMG


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## sptrawler (27 January 2020)

Crown resorts CWN, might be affected, if they still have an interest in the Macau casino.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 January 2020)

Crude oil has definitely been affected.

Around $58.50 a week ago, $52.42 at the moment.

That alone is a ~$600 million USD per day change (world oil consumption is very close to 100 million barrels per day).


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 January 2020)

Something I saw posted on another (non-stock market related) forum:

Confirmed cases in Mainland China:

Jan 18: 121
Jan 19: 198
Jan 20: 291
Jan 21: 440
Jan 22: 571
Jan 23: 830
Jan 24: 1287
Jan 25: 1975
Jan 26: 2744

Now that's a doubling time of approximately 2 days. If that continues then it'll reach 10,000 by Thursday this week and it'll exceed 100,000 during next week.  

It's not my intent to be alarmist but I think we'll see the general community's level of concern about this rise substantially in the near future.

If the figures stop being officially reported then that would be the "red flag" that it's getting out of hand.


----------



## basilio (28 January 2020)

Notting posted a video from a Chinese resident in Wuhan  in China Bull thread.
Absolutely incendiary. Very articulate, intelligent guy outlining the desperate situation and how it was allowed to get out of control.

PS  He is an articulate swearer as well..!


----------



## basilio (28 January 2020)

This story confirms what the Wuhan citizen (above) was saying a few days ago. Interestingly he also made the observation that he had to get permission to give full disclosure about the virus.

Having said that I think an outbreak like this would not be handled much better in many other countries. 

* China coronavirus: mayor of Wuhan admits mistakes *
Zhou Xianwang says public information should have been released more quickly

The mayor of Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, has acknowledged criticism over his handling of the crisis, admitting that information was not released quickly enough.

Zhou Xianwang wore a mask for protection as he told the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV: “We haven’t disclosed information in a timely manner and also did not use effective information to improve our work.”

He said he would resign if it helped with public opinion but pointed out the local government was obliged to seek permission before fully disclosing information about the virus, and that their response had since become “tougher than others”.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...pecial-meeting-in-beijing-as-death-toll-jumps


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## basilio (28 January 2020)

In the UK public health officials are  already zhit scared about the impact of hundreds/thousands of  people sickening with the virus with an already overstretched health system.

* Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn *
UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days

https://www.theguardian.com/science...rus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn


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## Dona Ferentes (28 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Notting posted a video from a Chinese resident in Wuhan  in China Bull thread.
> Absolutely incendiary. Very articulate, intelligent guy outlining the desperate situation and how it was allowed to get out of control.



Interesting vid. He's expressing a rage (of powerlessness) against the local and regional authorities, how they stuffed up the response. Makes the claim the Wuhan CCP leadership has decamped to Qinghai (sparsely populated province on the Tibetan Plateau). And hates the censorship, the actions by the authorities to impose control but not deal with the situation with any competency.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 January 2020)

*Pandemic reveals China's flaws*
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hartcher-20200127-p53v1c.html?btis

Summarising: First cases turned up on 12 Dec (or even earlier). Official announcement was made at end of December. "Zero infections" of medical staff until a dozen reported, weeks later, all at once. No new cases beyond Wuhan reported from 12 Dec till 21 Jan; in those 39 days, confirmed cases in Thailand, Japan and USA. Wuhan was scheduled to hold annual meetings of municipal and provincial officials (Party members) from 7-17 Jan.

They tried to keep a lid on it. (the usual self-interested cover-up)


----------



## joeno (28 January 2020)

I have relatives in China. A friend of a relative (old lady) is currently living in Wuhan. She is staying mostly indoors but no, she does not know 1 person who is infected. Nor has she seen someone who is infected on the streets. Or a person who encountered someone who was infected.

Are the figures given out by the Chinese Government too low? Yes. If not anything than by the mere fact not everyone is reporting themselves in to hospitals.

What exactly is the fear that this is more serious than H1N1 or SARS? Because the government is "taking it seriously"? Oh how dare they.


----------



## Tyler Durden (28 January 2020)

Country Lad said:


> It would appear that the Chinese government acted even more swiftly and very transparently in this case




Actually when it was first discovered, the government was arresting people sharing information about it because they didn't want to cause panic. Also, after knowledge of the virus, the Wuhan government allowed a giant feast to proceed, one where hundreds if not thousands gathered together to eat from shared meals.


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## Tyler Durden (28 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Just wonder how long China can keep control of quarantined cities.




Chinese people are posting / boasting on social media about how they're able to leave quarantined areas despite obviously showing symptoms.


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## joeno (28 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I saw posted on another (non-stock market related) forum:
> 
> Confirmed cases in Mainland China:
> 
> ...




Confirmed cases =/= people infected as of that date.

There could've been 3000 people infected Jan 18, and 4000 Jan 26.

I would also like to remind people that the Flu (also a virus!!) is responsible for 650,000 deaths a year.


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

joeno said:


> Confirmed cases =/= people infected as of that date.
> 
> There could've been 3000 people infected Jan 18, and 4000 Jan 26.
> 
> I would also like to remind people that the Flu (also a virus!!) is responsible for 650,000 deaths a year.



No:650000 in hospital
65000 death
We could get that number of deaths by the rotovirus next month if propagation stays the same
Not counting heart attacks and normal pneumonia becoming death sentences when hospital systems collapse as in Wuhan...
It is one thing not to be alarmist, it is another to play the galah especially when quoting wrong numbers
Check your references

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...DBAJ&usg=AOvVaw1fDLOH6eHIZaqI2R8g6uu3&ampcf=1


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## Knobby22 (28 January 2020)

We  shouldn't do anything about the Coronovirus.
We make up only 0.3% of the world population and it will hardly make a dent should we get become a centre for the disease in world terms.


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> We  shouldn't do anything about the Coronovirus.
> We make up only 0.3% of the world population and it will hardly make a dent should we get become a centre for the disease in world terms.



indeed as per co2 emission, we count fornothing so...
and we are so linked to China that we can not take any hurtful decision, never expect anything from governments in case like that.The sheer size of tourism plus education industry  ties Australia in its respnses, nothing will happen until too late, and if as explained in many source, you can be infectious while still healthy, we will have to ride that one with natursl survival rate..with no ICU access
I see a lot of tigers slaughtered and a lot of vitamin supplements sales...


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Not counting heart attacks and normal pneumonia becoming death sentences when hospital systems collapse as in Wuhan...



There's always issues when compiling death statistics amidst a disaster.

Eg someone escaping a bushfire has a heart attack and crashes their car into a tree which kills them.

What was their cause of death? Car crash? Heart attack? Do we say it was due to the fire because if it wasn't for the fire then they wouldn't have been driving, probably wouldn't have had a heart attack, and would have more likely survived it even if they did?

Etc. It can become a technicality to say what the cause of death actually was.

All that said, and noting that the thread's about the economic implications not the medical ones, I'll simply note this. The economic implications are real right now, they're already happening. Oil price has dropped 10% or so, share markets are down a few % globally, there are planes, trains and buses going nowhere that would otherwise be in use, empty streets and shops, cancelled public events, cities locked down, people not booking international travel and so on.

Those economic costs are real, rising, and realistically there's no chance that most of what's lost will be recovered at least in the short term.

The news is likely to drive the markets far more than any underlying medical reality. If "100,000 infected" makes the news before anything about cures or 95%+ survival rates then that's going to cause some volatility. Same if an outbreak occurs somewhere else which isn't anywhere near China.

How it all unfolds I won't claim to know but the potential's there to significantly move the market I'd think.


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

106 min death.4300 cases...2pm Australia time figures..but obviously from China gov.so..
Growth rate roughly constant


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## Smurf1976 (28 January 2020)

joeno said:


> What exactly is the fear that this is more serious than H1N1 or SARS? Because the government is "taking it seriously"? Oh how dare they.




Essentially the same fear as if someone bangs on my front door at 3am.

Fear of the unknown but knowing that whatever the reason it's not going to be good and the only question is how bad is it?

In the case of the virus, the issue is that the extent of the problem isn't known. It's not like a plane crash into the ocean where worst case there's a wrecked plane and everyone on board is now dead. A disaster yes but it's a known quantity, the worst case outcome is known right from the start. With this virus however, well nobody knows and that's the problem - nobody knows and the potential scenarios range from trivial to massive.


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## kahuna1 (28 January 2020)

I note of course the market is down.

I also note that Trump impeachment given the Bolton revelation which are astounding went from say a 0.1% chance to maybe a 5% chance.

As for this Flu ... despite so so many things and theories on the internet ... amusing that aliens plated it or the USA did ... this story is more to panic about.


*Woman dies in Australia Day lamington-eating contest*

A woman has died in Australia while taking part in a contest to eat as many lamingtons as possible.

The woman, aged 60, is reported to have had a seizure during the event at a hotel in Hervey Bay, Queensland, to mark Australia Day on Sunday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51259819

So glad someone worked out that LOBSTERS do actually survive in tanks .... the idiot who wrote the price went to Zero ... seemed to miss that, and the fact that we here eat lobsters, so too Hong Kong and even Japan.

Must run ... shorting the lamington futures after that story !!


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## basilio (28 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> With this virus however, well nobody knows and that's the problem - nobody knows and the potential scenarios range from trivial to massive.




Plus 1. The Spanish Flu killed 50 million people world wide in 1918-9.  Smallpox alone killed  300Million people worldwide in the 20th Century. Scientists have  said for years that the risk of nasty flu mutation is possible. Bird Flu has cropped up a couple of times. There is form with regard to new and old disease nasties.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/empire_seapower/smallpox_01.shtml
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-at-russian-laboratory-housing-smallpox-virus


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## basilio (28 January 2020)

Updating official  infection figures

m ago 04:34 


We reported earlier that the National Health Commission had issued new figures for deaths and infections, including 4,515 confirmed cases of the virus. State media is reporting that 976 - or just over 20% of cases – are patients in a critical condition. It also says there are 6,973 suspected cases in China. China Global TV Network published a map of infections in China (in which it includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan).



Chinese-government backed broadcaster, the China Global Television Network (CGTN) has published a map showing infections of the coronavirus by province. Photograph: CGTN

https://www.theguardian.com/science...-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I note of course the market is down.
> 
> I also note that Trump impeachment given the Bolton revelation which are astounding went from say a 0.1% chance to maybe a 5% chance.
> 
> ...



I will make sure i post the result so my blighted ignorance in term of $.
ANN shares, gold, 2pc buy on open below my initial std price(gained already) and put in place for rio and fmg, bboz sell raised
Worst case scenario : these go up and compensate some of my other portfolio losses while the panic gets rampant
Best case scenario. I loose on the warrants and gold, the portfolio rebounds
Why on hell should you worry that a virus epidemy started within km from a chine virus research lab, and not from the market as per the Lancet article..must be fake news...
I would not react nowhere like that if this originated from northern Mongolia or even bj, hk
You are often quite ramped up, but i would react the same if it was our American friends having the problem.are you sure you have no bias? 12billions usd cost in china a minimum as it is gov expenses.my startup has extended holidays till the 5th of February, some staff stuck in Hubei,others panicking 900km away..do not expect to sell them Wagyu beef or spider crabs this year, or uni degree and holidays
I think both Canada and Australia are the 2 western countries which will pay a high economic price for this.even if it stops by next month


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## basilio (28 January 2020)

History of smallpox.  I think we have forgotten how dangerous diseases can be. We also believe that science will solve it all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_smallpox


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## sptrawler (28 January 2020)

basilio said:


> History of smallpox.  I think we have forgotten how dangerous diseases can be. We also believe that science will solve it all.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_smallpox



Herd vaccination has been very successful, in eliminating some horrible diseases.


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## Smurf1976 (28 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> 12billions usd cost in china a minimum as it is gov expenses.my startup has extended holidays till the 5th of February, some staff stuck in Hubei,others panicking 900km away..do not expect to sell them Wagyu beef or spider crabs this year, or uni degree and holidays
> I think both Canada and Australia are the 2 western countries which will pay a high economic price for this.even if it stops by next month



Yep - there's already some damage done economically and the question now is about how big that ends up being.


----------



## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Herd vaccination has been very successful, in eliminating some horrible diseases.



What will surface wo doubt in the coming months or year is
What was this virus, was it manipulated..crisp...watch netflix "unnatural selection" or if you have interest in genetic manipulation
Never expect acknowledgement, and to be honest, who cares..the devil is out whatever the cause..
Going to log to trading platform and see what the result of the day is.
Stay safe


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## fergee (28 January 2020)

I guess the HK protesters may stay home now.......


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I guess the HK protesters may stay home now.......



One of my comments to a chinese friend:
.BJ has sorted the HK issue....


----------



## kahuna1 (28 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> *Woman dies in Australia Day lamington-eating contest*




Watching outside the bakery ....

Child almost choked as they ate a lamington. Is it on the news ?

Smallpox has been eradicated and the Spanish Flu .... from 100 years ago when life expectancy was half that of today, penicillin was not invented for another 25 years and assistance with lung conditions was medieval compared to today.

Back to sleep for me ....


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## Dona Ferentes (28 January 2020)

definitely one where local agendas come out. A poster _early birds_, dropped this, elsewhere







> called my brother who lives in Shanghai he said " people demand shanghai mayor to step down because of : why he let people from wuhang in to the city earlier?"


----------



## basilio (28 January 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Smallpox has been eradicated and the Spanish Flu .... from 100 years ago when life expectancy was half that of today, penicillin was not invented for another 25 years and assistance with lung conditions was medieval compared to today.




True. Great of course.
Nonetheless the principlel is still the same.
A new virus that kills people, is significantly contagious and has no cure will decimate our society in no time flat* if it is allowed to sprea*d.   Find a cure ? Sure how long will that take ? Weeks ? Months

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we want to get concerned we should realise that our  last, strongest antibiotics are already being matched by resistant bacteria.  The question of how we deal with diseases that to date are curable with penicillin when penicillin doesn't work is seriously scary. For example today we take it for granted that  the highly infectious TB can be cured with antibiotics. However...

https://www.reactgroup.org/antibiotic-resistance/the-threat/
https://www.who.int/tb/areas-of-work/drug-resistant-tb/en/


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## basilio (28 January 2020)

Came across this analysis of dealing with new infectious diseases.

Worth reading just to see how bad the Ebola crisis became a few years ago.

* The disease always gets a head start: how to handle an epidemic *
Thermographic images are being used in airports in Indonesia to monitor arrivals for symptoms of coronavirus. Photograph: Zikri Maulana/SOPA
Outbreaks such as coronavirus, Sars and Ebola have taught us communication is key, and that the world is only as strong as its weakest health system

by Michael Safi

Global development is supported by
  About this content
Mon 27 Jan 2020 09.20 EST   Last modified on Mon 27 Jan 2020 14.25 EST

Shares
181

A patient presents at an emergency department somewhere in the world. They are feverish and vomiting. Doctors suspect it is influenza, but they are wrong.

When the outbreak of a virulent new disease such as the coronavirus is identified, the starting gun is fired on a vast, multimillion-dollar international effort to try to contain it.

But nothing can start before a health professional determines that, against the odds, they are confronting something exceptional. “You need to work through that process, establish that this is an out-of-the-ordinary disease and say, let’s do lab tests on it,” says Jonathan Quick, an adjunct professor of global health and author of The End of Epidemics.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-...-to-handle-an-epidemic-ebola-sars-coronavirus

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30184-7/fulltext


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## qldfrog (28 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Came across this analysis of dealing with new infectious diseases.
> 
> Worth reading just to see how bad the Ebola crisis became a few years ago.
> 
> ...



A bit away from the economic side but i once got very sick coming back from Thailand: 5 days no food, fever lost 5kg, etc and my gp notified a national gov body who shared the results of the tests as well as flight number and seats.
ended up non lethal 
Was impressed positively by the process in place.as good as van be, which is obviously not perfect if contagious wo symptoms as is the case here it seems


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## joeno (29 January 2020)

It also shows the double standards and racism in the world too.

If France gets it, it's the French flag all over facebook. When it's a terrible unpredictable outbreak of a virus in China, it's "good hope you all die" and how do we keep Chinese people away from us. Fear-mongering.

E.g. Taiwan (who by their own accord are a "different country and ethnicity") is banning the export of surgical masks to China. When they admitted last week they have a surplus. Absolutely disgusting...


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## Smurf1976 (29 January 2020)

joeno said:


> It also shows the double standards and racism in the world too.



Agreed although to clarify my personal view, my comments relate solely to the potential economic and medical aspects of it.

They'd be exactly the same if it happened anywhere else beyond obvious points of a practical nature which aren't based on race.

Practical points as in there's a huge population in China, potentially the manufacturing of a lot of goods for the global market could be disrupted and so on. That would be very different if the same thing had occurred somewhere with a far smaller population and that doesn't produce anything of major consequence to anyone else. I wouldn't say that considering such differences is being racist, it's really just being practical.


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## ducati916 (29 January 2020)

Just putting a few numbers on it:

If a flu had the same (or higher) virulence as the 1918 flu (which upper estimates killed 100M) in a population of 1.7B, with far less international travel etc:

Then in today's higher interconnected world, pitch the % a little higher, say 10% and you are looking at 800M dead. Just calculate 10% of your population.

That would effect (potentially) everything from power generation to food production. The impact would be catastrophic in the true sense of the word.

jog on
duc


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## qldfrog (29 January 2020)

Exactly Duc, and talking about racism, the only one i see around is by the negationists who see that as a chinese issue.when you have cases all over the world it is not a chinese problem anymore.and viruses are never stopped by boundaries.


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## lusk (29 January 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Just putting a few numbers on it:
> 
> If a flu had the same (or higher) virulence as the 1918 flu (which upper estimates killed 100M) in a population of 1.7B, with far less international travel etc:
> 
> ...




You really cant compare 1918 flu to today given technology, science and information.

Back then by the time they would have know what was going on the whole world would have been exposed.


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

Looks like they are getting results, cracking the virus code.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...d-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2020)

lusk said:


> You really cant compare 1918 flu to today given technology, science and information.
> 
> Back then by the time they would have know what was going on the whole world would have been exposed.



You can not compare 2020 and 1918 with the speed of modern transport, amounts of people or absence of quarantine either
Nor the fact in 1918 noone was playing with crisp


----------



## againsthegrain (29 January 2020)

joeno said:


> It also shows the double standards and racism in the world too.
> 
> If France gets it, it's the French flag all over facebook. When it's a terrible unpredictable outbreak of a virus in China, it's "good hope you all die" and how do we keep Chinese people away from us. Fear-mongering.
> 
> E.g. Taiwan (who by their own accord are a "different country and ethnicity") is banning the export of surgical masks to China. When they admitted last week they have a surplus. Absolutely disgusting...




It works both ways did China bother to help us with bush fires? 

Canada, Usa even Singapore sent some kind of help even if symbolic. 

And all the Chinese buying baby formula from here and sending it back, they don't give a sh about locals so same response


----------



## basilio (29 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Looks like they are getting results, cracking the virus code.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...d-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390




Reassuring story. Seems reasonable to believe we can get a quicker diagnosis and possible vaccine in the near future.

Hopefully the virus doesn't mutate by then....


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

It looks as though Christmas Island will be used as a quarantine depot, a good idea while the virus is in the incubation period.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> It works both ways did China bother to help us with bush fires?
> 
> Canada, Usa even Singapore sent some kind of help even if symbolic.
> 
> And all the Chinese buying baby formula from here and sending it back, they don't give a sh about locals so same response



A bit harsh but some truth, but it is not a chinese problem anymore imho
Figures this morning 132 deaths, 6000+ confirmed cases
Following the double in 2 days pattern.
Not good...market resurfacing with optimism as always.what can go wrong


----------



## fergee (29 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Not good...market resurfacing with optimism as always.what can go wrong




Good reporting results in the US should negate most of the pessimism regarding the outbreak. IF we start seeing some bad earnings prints it will be a great "excuse" for a magnified sell off. 

I dont think we will see heavy selling pressure until after or near the end of earnings season. Implied volatility(SP500) looks to have broken out of a 1 year down trend which imho indicates a rough ride coming up over the next few months, enough time to hedge at a reasonable price and to lock some profits into the remaining strength. Just my


----------



## ducati916 (29 January 2020)

lusk said:


> You really cant compare 1918 flu to today given technology, science and information.
> 
> Back then by the time they would have know what was going on the whole world would have been exposed.




I agree, but not for the reasons that you provide. The reasons are more to do with prevailing levels of poverty, which translate into hygiene, nutritional status, age and ability to purchase or access basic healthcare.

Today, poverty (while still in existence) is far lower than it was 100 years ago. Hence, why so many of these current outbreaks (not just flu) seem to originate in China, Africa, etc.

jog on
duc


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## Smurf1976 (29 January 2020)

The issue I see here is that there's so much uncertainty.

Uncertainty as to the accuracy of data. Uncertainty as to the virus itself. Uncertainty as to if/when an effective cure will be developed. Uncertainty as to what the real health impact is - if 100 million were to be infected then how many die or at least end up in hospital?

Etc. So many uncertainties which when combined give a huge range of plausible outcomes ranging from a minor nuisance through to outright catastrophe.

What can be said though is that so long as it keeps doubling every 2 days it's a problem indeed pretty much anything is a problem if it doubles every 2 days and keeps doing so. Even good things turn to bad if they keep doing that for too long.


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The issue I see here is that there's so much uncertainty.
> 
> Uncertainty as to the accuracy of data. Uncertainty as to the virus itself. Uncertainty as to if/when an effective cure will be developed. Uncertainty as to what the real health impact is - if 100 million were to be infected then how many die or at least end up in hospital?
> 
> ...



Which is one of the really good things about Australia and NZ, isolated, no common/open borders, easy to control the flow of people, so in reality one of the safest places to be ATM. IMO


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It looks as though Christmas Island will be used as a quarantine depot, a good idea while the virus is in the incubation period..



though you'd think the Christmas Islanders may think otherwise?


----------



## fergee (29 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Which is one of the really good things about Australia and NZ, isolated, no common/open borders, easy to control the flow of people, so in reality one of the safest places to be ATM. IMO




100% agree on that....cant wait to get back to the "right" hemisphere!



Smurf1976 said:


> Etc. So many uncertainties which when combined give a huge range of plausible outcomes ranging from a minor nuisance through to outright catastrophe.




I think it will just end up being a case of muddling through the middle case scenario(at worst). The probability that this will be a major global catastrophe is pretty small, all though it would be a black swan event(imo) if it proved to be worst case. In saying that I think the insto's and hedgies will use this as an excuse to take some profits, jack the markets down and rebuy at a later date...the ol Wall St shuffle


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Which is one of the really good things about Australia and NZ, isolated, no common/open borders, easy to control the flow of people, so in reality one of the safest places to be ATM. IMO



how many direct flights from China per day: with 14 days incubation and transmissin before symptom, I am not sleeping that well, few western nations have as much exposure as us to China, and the importance of China in our economy: tourism, education, raw material exports, food exports, except the baristas, few Australians do not rely on China as a whole. My house was built on the back of Chinese exports and mining giants profits


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## qldfrog (29 January 2020)

I do not understand the optimism in Australia: even if this is over next month,so just with the existing hit , not thinking of disease developing outside china: we are lucky, all over in 3 months
just try to guess the billions just gone in smoke, the fires impacts are nothing vs that.
Is that not obvious?, or is Qld so special?: all our mining, a walk in the cbd  or on the beach ,or in the gold coast and you know who is in control economically.
maybe just another Qld specificity...


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> though you'd think the Christmas Islanders may think otherwise?



As long as they are in isolation it isn't a problem.


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> how many direct flights from China per day: with 14 days incubation and transmissin before symptom, I am not sleeping that well, few western nations have as much exposure as us to China, and the importance of China in our economy: tourism, education, raw material exports, food exports, except the baristas, few Australians do not rely on China as a whole. My house was built on the back of Chinese exports and mining giants profits



When you have lost your health, the last thing you worry about is your money ask anyone on their death bed, if they looked at the stock market recently.


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## Dona Ferentes (29 January 2020)

> ... why so many of these current outbreaks (not just flu) seem to originate in China, Africa, etc.



 More a case of changing animal husbandry practice, perhaps. And what people eat. If such viruses are jumping species, then its a proximity thing. In Chinese villages, as is the case for many other Asian countries, pigs and poultry (ducks and chickens) are kept close by the inhabitants. Cultural practices of eating exotica (_4 legs; yummy_) exacerbate the situation. African villages are similar though it's to save their livestock from predatory animals at night that is the big issue. Or hunger (monkey meat, anyone?).


----------



## Joules MM1 (29 January 2020)

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Australia said on Wednesday they have successfully developed a lab-grown version of the new coronavirus, the first to be recreated outside of China, in a breakthrough that could help quicken the creation of a vaccine.

*Australia scientists to share lab-grown coronavirus to hasten vaccine efforts*
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...BN1ZR2YD?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> More a case of changing animal husbandry practice, perhaps. And what people eat. If such viruses are jumping species, then its a proximity thing. In Chinese villages, as is the case for many other Asian countries, pigs and poultry (ducks and chickens) are kept close by the inhabitants. Cultural practices of eating exotica (_4 legs; yummy_) exacerbate the situation. African villages are similar though it's to save their livestock from predatory animals at night that is the big issue. Or hunger (monkey meat, anyone?).



Yes a breeding ground for inter species transfer of germs, nasty.


----------



## qldfrog (29 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes a breeding ground for inter species transfer of germs, nasty.



Unless you believe the Lancet is fake news, believing the chinese gov version of the fish market origin does not fit.being vegan will not help if people play with CRISP and viruses in labs.
In term of economic impact Guandong province (South: macao, HK Shenzhen triangle )work start postponed to the 10/02 by decree.
My startup included
So another extra week before your iphones,electronics or computers start being built again.this cost is tremendous
Nearly 2 weeks out of 52, that's 4pc of production, and no they will not catch up on other holidays as lunar new year is THE holidays, as for overtime, it is the norm...
Also learnt the Americans bring back their people, check for fever etc in Alaska then release them..a recipe for disaster in my opinion as contagion is present before symptom.a known fact now
For once Australia plan makes more sense.
Keeping up with development and increased costs


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

Some aren't keen on a couple of weeks on a tropical Island apparently.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...istmas-island-evacuation-20200129-p53vue.html


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 January 2020)

The world is over-populated and these events will become more common.

We are looking at a population negative feedback loop.

Be fit, get vaccinated and don't stress.

The economic effect will only be obvious in retrospect. Stay as you are and invest on your gut feelings.

Hold Gold and Cash for the end-times and buy stable stocks when all is woe

gg


----------



## SirRumpole (29 January 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> MELBOURNE (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Australia said on Wednesday they have successfully developed a lab-grown version of the new coronavirus, the first to be recreated outside of China, in a breakthrough that could help quicken the creation of a vaccine.
> 
> *Australia scientists to share lab-grown coronavirus to hasten vaccine efforts*
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...BN1ZR2YD?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter




Silly, they should have kept it to themselves, patented it and made a fortune.

Where is their entrepreneurial spirit ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I do not understand the optimism in Australia



I think that on the part of the average citizen it comes down largely to not understanding the issue itself.

Things like floods, fires, earthquakes etc people can understand the potential consequences fairly easily.

Things of an engineering nature most people can understand if given a layman's terms explanation of what has happened and what that means in practical terms. Dispense with the technical terms, explain what's happened and what needs to happen to fix it, and whilst they may not like the news the average person can at least understand how serious it is and so on.

Viruses though, well that's a very long way out of the average person's field of knowledge and it's not the most straightforward thing to explain especially given that the experts are themselves still getting their minds around the detail of this one. 

So the average person really has no idea is my thinking.


----------



## sptrawler (29 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Viruses though, well that's a very long way out of the average person's field of knowledge and it's not the most straightforward thing to explain especially given that the experts are themselves still getting their minds around the detail of this one.
> 
> So the average person really has no idea is my thinking.



Also the way that the SARS and ebola scares were overcome, without much fallout in the recent past, probably makes people think the same will happen with this coronavirus.
The problem with the 24/7 news media, it all becomes a bit mind numbing IMO and people treat it all a bit like crying wolf.
Untill it gets really serious and 1,000's die, I think the general public just think 'here we go again'.
It is a bit like there was a call to get Australians out, now that it will mean a 14 day stay on Christmas Island, the media is now reporting those trapped are having second thoughts about being evacuated. Why? it is either serious or not, and if it is, why are people having second thoughts? 
Just my opinion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The problem with the 24/7 news media, it all becomes a bit mind numbing IMO and people treat it all a bit like crying wolf.



Very true.

If someone had said very publicly (front page news etc) 3 months ago that Australia would face massive fires this Summer they'd have been ridiculed and found themselves constantly being mocked as scare mongering.

We're in a situation where a lot of people simply don't believe that anything bad is even remotely possible.

Meanwhile the trend of doubling every 2 days remains intact, there are now 7 confirmed cases in Australia and the economic costs continue to mount.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 January 2020)

Looking at the market aspects of this, I'll note that thus far the trend remains intact that the number infected is doubling approximately every 48 hours.

If that remains the case then I'd think we'll see a panic in the markets before this is sorted. Perhaps reaching 100,000 people infected will trigger it? Perhaps 1 million? Perhaps it needs to turn up in New York City or London?

If it keeps spreading though then at some point I think we'll see a panic and assets being dumped at fire sale prices.


----------



## sptrawler (30 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking at the market aspects of this, I'll note that thus far the trend remains intact that the number infected is doubling approximately every 48 hours.
> 
> If that remains the case then I'd think we'll see a panic in the markets before this is sorted. Perhaps reaching 100,000 people infected will trigger it? Perhaps 1 million? Perhaps it needs to turn up in New York City or London?
> 
> If it keeps spreading though then at some point I think we'll see a panic and assets being dumped at fire sale prices.



Yes you do wonder, if it isn't a good time to take a bit of profit off the table, in case opportunity presents. I thought 2020 was going to be a bumper year, but a pandemic could certainly put paid to that plan.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes you do wonder, if it isn't a good time to take a bit of profit off the table, in case opportunity presents. I thought 2020 was going to be a bumper year, but a pandemic could certainly put paid to that plan.



As I see it, China is the world's second largest economy and ranks right up there in importance on most matters. Pick a statistic and they're in first or second place with most things.

The stark reality though is reports like this:  https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...k/news-story/cd07b7cbe6855493d668af70531ca5d4

If it's even half accurate then the economic costs of this are truly massive and it's only a matter of time until we see that reflected in, among other things, China's imports of coal, oil and gas (since virtually all economic activity uses some form of energy and in practice in China any reduction will mean less need to import fuels). 

They could possibly keep buying coal and just stockpile it on the ground, same with metal ores they can be stored in the open if need be, but that doesn't work with oil or gas, once the tanks are full that's it you can't store any more, and once traders work out that China's buying less of the stuff that'll send the alarm bells ringing very loudly as to the extent of the situation I expect.


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## Smurf1976 (30 January 2020)

As just one example of the economic implications, apparently P2 masks are now rather hard to obtain in Australia.

Not an issue for most people but if you're a tradie doing work that WHS regulations say requires a mask, and you're out of masks, well then you and your customers have a problem. In due course so too does whatever other tradie who's waiting on you to do your bit before they do theirs. Etc. Slowly grinding to a halt.

Then there's the now numerous airlines which have cancelled flights to and from China. That doesn't just mean less planes in the air but it means less work for all associated people on the ground from fuel to taxi drivers to cleaners. 

And so on. There's rather a lot of things which might not involve someone personally going to China, they might never have been to China or even be able to find it on a map, but they'll still be affected if their job involves servicing something that's no longer operating or doing something that ends up being on hold due to a shortage of something or waiting for someone else who has a shortage of something they need. Etc.

It's going to take quite some time for all this to filter through. There's so much complexity that even working out exactly what ends up being affected would be a major exercise in itself.


----------



## qldfrog (30 January 2020)

Economically, Wuhan is the Detroit of China:
In China, manufacturing is located in cities with a very high specialisation focus. 
in Wuhan, it is the car industry so expect abysmal or fake car production numbers next months for China. Oil will go down


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## qldfrog (30 January 2020)

I see that as a relatively low risk as return bet:
People tell me they are basing investment on an hypothetical 2C warming of temperature in 80y, yet the warrant market or bboz for Australian exposure to a major collapse in its main market is unchanged..duhhhh
How much do you loose by getting out of shares and into cash gold safe haven for a month even if the market ends up going up at 20pc a year?
On the other end...
I take odds like that
Once again, this is even if we learn we can cure this with 2 aspirins next month.
The already existing economic damages are abysmal in China.profit from the overall ignorance here.
Do not rush too quickly to sell, 8 still have a few shares to offload


----------



## greggles (30 January 2020)

Just as I suspected. We'll probably never know the real death toll. This is the sort of thing that inevitably happens in a closed, paranoid and authoritarian society.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes you do wonder, if it isn't a good time to take a bit of profit off the table, in case opportunity presents. I thought 2020 was going to be a bumper year, but a pandemic could certainly put paid to that plan.



took $50K off last week. Lightened off on the speccies; and this means I won't sell good assets at bad times, if that situation arises.


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## macca (30 January 2020)

I think the lack of concern in Aussies is typical "she will be right Mate"

Most people who work for a living have tuned out of the 24/7 media frenzy

The scare mongering on SARS, the annual panic about the almost useless flu shots and the incessant, hysterical shrieking about climate change/catastrophe has caused a high degree of scepticism of what is presented as "news" by today's media

However, Asian folk have a completely different view, in my area we get a lot of tourists of Asian descent who often wear face masks.

The most common are from China, Korea and Japan and up to 50% of women will have a mask on.

I would expect that in most Chinese cities people have a stockpile of masks so not that big a change to their habits but if this continues to worsen a shortage could lead to panic in the populace.

Here in Oz the obvious solution is to quarantine everyone who has been to China recently for 14 days in their own home.

No different to staying home with any other illness and very cheap to implement.


----------



## fergee (30 January 2020)

macca said:


> I think the lack of concern in Aussies is typical "she will be right Mate"
> 
> Most people who work for a living have tuned out of the 24/7 media frenzy
> 
> ...




Asian woman don't necessarily wear a mask because they are sick or dont want to get sick they often wear a mask so they dont have to put make up on or because the they think their teeth, mouth, nose etc is ugly and they are trying to hide it. Pollen is another reason a lot of people wear masks if they have allergies.

The mask shortage is here already most websites are sold out and people are hoarding and reselling for massive mark ups. 

From my experience, here in Japan, the common masks that are used are the cheaper style that dont really block much more than pollen. The culture in asia is even if sick to still go out to work, shopping and not to stay home and rest and not spread the bug around. Wearing a mask is NOT about not giving a flu/cold to other people it is purely about not catching one or hiding ones face.

Gotta love the she'll be right mate attitude


----------



## qldfrog (30 January 2020)

170 people, and confirmed cases a total of 7,711 as per last chinese releases.
So these are the Chinese official numbers..to take with a reasonable amount of doubt obviously


----------



## fergee (30 January 2020)

An interesting economic aspect of this is that people are trying to cash in eg Buying and reselling masks.
Just came across a bar today that's caused a bit of stir in NZ by this promotion they did get a bit of backlash for it....theres opportunity in crisis after all.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 January 2020)

greggles said:


> Just as I suspected. We'll probably never know the real death toll. This is the sort of thing that inevitably happens in a closed, paranoid and authoritarian society.




This chap writes for The Guardian, itself " a closed, paranoid and authoritarian society."

gg


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## qldfrog (30 January 2020)

ROL @Garpal Gumnut  but I think we can all agree that the Chinese figures can not be taken at face value, I just hope they keep the same reduction factor so that comparison can be done.
If it get worse, we might have no more figure at all-> if this happens, then it is time to oil your gun and get all the Spam cans from Woollies


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## fergee (30 January 2020)

House bar doubled down on there advert after pulling the previous add. (Hamiltron is the std capital of NZ just for reference)


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## Dona Ferentes (30 January 2020)

> Some families said they would prefer to stay in Wuhan — the epicentre of virus that has infected more than 7,000 and killed 170 — rather than send their children to [] Christmas Island...



actually the ABC reports it as the Christmas Island Detention Centre. What's wrong with these people !  (not ?)

Quarantine is for the benefit of all. Forty days in the desert.


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 January 2020)

Chernobyl

you know....how we'd never know how many hundreds of thousands would die

and didnt

in Australia alone 3500 people on average per year die of ....the flu
how many people will die this year directly resultant: Alzheimers, heart disease, HIV or hypertension?
answer tens of thousands ...here, in Australia

people are primed for the fear for themselves, fear is an expression and not an actual calculated reaction that provides any edge to action

peak terrorist fear has passed by, but, that's not a headline, comparatively, terrorism has plummeted yet not matched by the fear of terrorism

if your topical news or social media reflex is not immediately checkable how do you know it's reliable ?
how do you know that your reaction to what youre receiving is not merely a reflection of yourself ?

the cost of the current (fill in the blank) is not the thing itself rather it is the disposition to the thing itself

of course this post comes across as philosophical and if your triggered to fear you'll dismiss it.... in the instance of effective action how effective is fear ?

that was fun, where's my beer ...la cerveza mas fina


----------



## qldfrog (31 January 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> Chernobyl
> 
> you know....how we'd never know how many hundreds of thousands would die
> 
> ...



WHO declaring global emergency.
It seems it was under intense pressure by China not to, before based on article i read in french news yesterday.
Borders being closed and airline closing routes.
Special hospital setup in Sydney.
Just a flu..sure..
From what i have read so far: 2 to 3pc death rate for people treated with access to hospital etc
Hospitalisation required for 25pc of affected people( need of hospital to survive, outside the diagnostic, quarantine measure etc)
Can spread people to people without especially close contact: waiter, bus driver, colleague at meetings
Already drastic economic costs in China, costs now spreading OS.
Imho, Australia is the most exposed economically of all western countries.How long before OS/funds and local investors do their sums and wake up.who will counter balance here?
RBA buying shares as they do in the US and Japan?


----------



## againsthegrain (31 January 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> Chernobyl
> 
> you know....how we'd never know how many hundreds of thousands would die
> 
> ...



if they were coke bottles you could call them cokeheads


----------



## qldfrog (31 January 2020)

Numbers to keep in mind
92,100 *hospital beds in Australia*
Obviously most of them used.. would be interesting to know actual capacity for emergencies like that.
You postpone surgeries, add a few beds.anyone in healthcare aware of figures there?


----------



## joeno (31 January 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> It works both ways did China bother to help us with bush fires?
> 
> Canada, Usa even Singapore sent some kind of help even if symbolic.
> 
> And all the Chinese buying baby formula from here and sending it back, they don't give a sh about locals so same response




The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).

Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't call Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.


----------



## againsthegrain (31 January 2020)

joeno said:


> The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).
> 
> Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't called Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.
> 
> Chinese buying baby formula products from homegrown Australian companies is not racism. If you think that you're thick.




yes buying baby forumla is not racist but its selfish, all for profit and look after their own.  So in the same sense we should be selfish too look after our own and protect ourselves from the Chinese virus yes it originated in china so its a fair name.  Not letting infected people in to minimise our chances of infection is not racist you would have to be thick to think that.


----------



## qldfrog (31 January 2020)

joeno said:


> The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).
> 
> Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't call Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.



Yes it is a Chinese virus, moreover it is not even impossible for it to be a Chinese made virus.you need to cool down, i think the response in Australia has been quite gentle
Anyway an interesting article about the economic effects:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html


----------



## fergee (31 January 2020)

@qldfrog is right guys(@againsthegrain @joeno ) please let cooler heads prevail and be careful of using ad hominem when we discuss this matter together. 

Let's try and keep it civil and on topic, the thread is in regard's to the economic impact of the coronavirus not perceived injustices.


----------



## qldfrog (31 January 2020)

213 death,9692 cases last count


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 January 2020)

joeno said:


> The Chinese didn't put up news articles saying "Australian bushfires are Australian's fault" or something degrading. During the bushfires there was extensive sympathetic coverage of it in China and elsewhere in the world (during that time i travelled there so i know).
> 
> Also I wasn't specifically targeting Australia, I was saying in general. But yes Australian tabloid have been responsible for such endearing headliners like "China Virus spreads the globe!" and "Chinese stay at home". It's wrong because the media outlets didn't call Ebola "Congo virus" or "African disaster" in the news or imply we shouldn't let any Africans in the country.



On one hand agreed that China doesn't seem to have done anything nasty to Australia in regard to the fires. At least not to my knowledge.

On the other hand, most people aren't medical experts so technical terms are best avoided. The virus started in China, it has thus far been concentrated there, so I don't see the media calling it "China virus" is really any different to saying "Japan earthquake", "Queensland flood" or "US shooting" etc. Grammatically perhaps not ideal but the meaning is readily understood.

In any event, I don't think anyone on this forum is intentionally being racist etc so let's go forward.....


----------



## SirRumpole (31 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As just one example of the economic implications, apparently P2 masks are now rather hard to obtain in Australia.




Maybe there are a lot of Chinese buying them and sending them home with the baby formula.


----------



## fergee (31 January 2020)




----------



## fergee (31 January 2020)

This was found here https://www.reddit.com/user/thejjbug/ on reddit take it with a gain of salt as Im unsure of the data quality but interesting perspective on previous outbreaks.


----------



## qldfrog (31 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Maybe there are a lot of Chinese buying them and sending them home with the baby formula.



I am not Chinese but I ordered one 
if I do not use it for a virus issue, I do enough grinding etc or trying to spray paint a cupboard from the inside (an hint: do not try even with full protection and mask) that it will be useful; 
ordered a set of surgical masks as well, to complement the std face masks I brought back from China when living there.They export milk, I imported masks..and plastic bags..


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I am not Chinese but I ordered one
> if I do not use it for a virus issue, I do enough grinding etc or trying to spray paint a cupboard from the inside (an hint: do not try even with full protection and mask) that it will be useful;
> ordered a set of surgical masks as well, to complement the std face masks I brought back from China when living there.They export milk, I imported masks..and plastic bags..




They are called STI's now @qldfrog not STD's. In any case a mask won't prevent you catching one no matter how you attach it, or to where.

Nor will a standard mask protect you from coronavirus.

You need a P2.

You also need to have a P2 when they check you for an STD.

gg


----------



## basilio (31 January 2020)

I think the economic implications are going to start happening as companies stop production, supply chains start to fail and in particular air transport in and out of China falters.

What could happen is that the epidemic spreads significantly through China and the pressure on the Chinese economy  and industrial activity gets translated to the rest of the world.


----------



## qldfrog (31 January 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> They are called STI's now @qldfrog not STD's. In any case a mask won't prevent you catching one no matter how you attach it, or to where.
> 
> Nor will a standard mask protect you from coronavirus.
> 
> ...



 std for standard ..aka chirurgical
Only 2 types of masks recommended 
Chirurgical or P2 here,(  N95 elsewhere) with cartridge usually or replaceable filter
Got both
Nothing has been said about the efficiency or not of Tamiflu and the few antivirus known compounds.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 February 2020)

fergee said:


> This was found here https://www.reddit.com/user/thejjbug/ on reddit take it with a gain of salt as Im unsure of the data quality but interesting perspective on previous outbreaks.




I remember the swine flu rather well since I got it.

I'd say it was a real pig of a thing but that would be a lousy attempt at humor so I'll just say it was truly miserable. Only way to feel even slightly comfortable was lying flat on my back on a hard surface. So I spent literally a few days lying on the floor, getting up only when absolutely necessary.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 February 2020)

basilio said:


> I think the economic implications are going to start happening as companies stop production, supply chains start to fail and in particular air transport in and out of China falters.



The way it looks to me, the economic costs will be mounting now no matter what happens with the virus itself, it's too late to avoid that and the question now is simply how bad will it get?


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The way it looks to me, the economic costs will be mounting now no matter what happens with the virus itself, it's too late to avoid that and the question now is simply how bad will it get?



Agree @Smurf1976  and more specifically, how harsher it will affect Australia more than let's say the US
Which stocks could benefit, and leverage the 'she will be right mate attitude' by buying bargain shorts and offloading your affected shares
Maybe also short SEAsia stocks as places like Thailand Vietnam could be hammered too.
Interestingly BHP in oz  yesterday went up: ROL
Just leveraging i am sure the expected oil and iron price surge?
Sometimes...


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

I invite you to look at the intraday asx200 for yesterday, it looks to me typical of investors off loading their assets slowly.a few rapid falls orders gets removed, then try again.Funds must have been busy


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 February 2020)

From my limited knowledge of this epi/pandemic it would appear that.
1. Good public health measures are in place in the developed world. 
2. A vaccine is imminent. 

Thus it may be, for the brave and/or risk-knowledgable, a good buying opportunity and to go short on EFT's in gold. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From my limited knowledge of this epi/pandemic it would appear that.
> 1. Good public health measures are in place in the developed world.
> 2. A vaccine is imminent.
> 
> ...



You mean the world powerhouse shutdowns for at least a month and we start shorting gold..
As for the vaccine, the Pasteur institute expects to be able to produce a vaccine within 20 months.imminent indeed
Gg you are definitely a true blue Australian
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/co...asteur-promet-un-vaccin-dans-20-mois-20200131


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Gg you are definitely a true blue Australian



BTW, this is in no way negative, in our globalist world, it could be seen as an attack


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You mean the world powerhouse shutdowns for at least a month and we start shorting gold..
> As for the vaccine, the Pasteur institute expects to be able to produce a vaccine within 20 months.imminent indeed
> Gg you are definitely a true blue Australian
> https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/co...asteur-promet-un-vaccin-dans-20-mois-20200131



D'accord, peut être.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 February 2020)

Horton is editor of The Lancet


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

http://virological.org/t/clock-and-tmrca-based-on-27-genomes/347
For the science side.interesting reading


----------



## basilio (1 February 2020)

Dr Richard Horton,  Editor of The Lancet,  had better be seriously wrong about teh spread of this virus.

If he is even half right the Genie is out of the bottle..

“On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation...substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas...” pic.twitter.com/3eoBKwC…




richard horton
@richardhorton1
“Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread is already present in multiple major Chinese cities...”


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

CHINESE ARRIVAL BAN: Drastic measure as coronavirus spreads
If this is confirmed we have lost at least 15pc of our tourists and 
*Chinese tourists spent* $12 billion while in *Australia* in 2018
So we lose 1 billion a month
Keep it rolling..just a flu


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

Knowing China, they may not be pleased 
You know the Saving face attitude
I expect a few gov orders there 
 Like the Australian coal ban months ago.


----------



## basilio (1 February 2020)

17:20 

Australian citizens coming from China will have to be quarantined for two weeks, said Morrison. Half a million masks will also be provided for those coming off flights from China, while thermometers and special screening arrangements will also be set up at airports.
 
 Facebook   
 Twitter 
 1h ago 17:12 
 1h ago 17:09 

*Australia issues China travel ban*
Speaking at a press conference, Australian prime minister Scott Morrison announced that no-one travelling from mainland China would be allowed into Australia unless they are Australian citizens or residents. Entry will be denied to anyone who has left or transited through mainland China from 1 February
....................................
There goes our Universities. Chinese students represent 33% of students enrolled at our universities.
There will also be many secondary schools with a number of Chinese students
Clearly our tourist industry will be trashed.
There will be tens of thousands of  Chinese business  people currently in China not to mention family members.
The airline industry will similarly affected.
This is  a force majeure event.


I think the stock market will be blood bath tomorrow.


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

hard to find details on that travel ban: fake news or not:
https://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/news/china-travel-ban-non-australians-denied-entry/3933011/
Anyone arriving from China, except Australian citizens, permanent residents and their direct family, will be barred from entry to Australia as the government seeks to stop the spread of the potentially deadly coronavirus.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 February 2020)

basilio said:


> I think the stock market will be blood bath tomorrow.



Agreed there - you'll have an awful lot of trouble selling shares in anything at all tomorrow given it's a Sunday.


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

Sad how the ignore button between Basilio and I allow this mismatch


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> hard to find details on that travel ban: fake news or not:
> https://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/news/china-travel-ban-non-australians-denied-entry/3933011/
> Anyone arriving from China, except Australian citizens, permanent residents and their direct family, will be barred from entry to Australia as the government seeks to stop the spread of the potentially deadly coronavirus.



I've seen similar on pprune.org which is an airline pilots' website.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Knowing China, they may not be pleased
> You know the Saving face attitude
> I expect a few gov orders there
> Like the Australian coal ban months ago.



Bigger picture, please. Russia has closed it (land) border. USA doing similar to us. Even Hong Kong


Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've seen similar on pprune.org which is an airline pilots' website.



 it's on the ABC, it must be true.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...o-travel-to-china-due-to-coronavirus/11920742


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 February 2020)

Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane and Cairns tourism trade will suffer.

Apartment prices may fall....or rise.

gg


----------



## qldfrog (1 February 2020)

Uni losses, lower number of renters
Luxury retail and tourism


----------



## qldfrog (2 February 2020)

A paper newly published and not yet peered review finds uncanny similarities between that virus and hiv sequences indicating potentially man made genetic manipulation.
That virus research lab in Wuhan is probably shredding a lot of files.

But i do believe by many way it is irrelevant, i doubt the release was planned and we just have to live with the consequences.it is bad but not yet civilization killer, the worrying side is its mutation capacity..to keep an eye on.
I wonder what will be the impact on banks tomorrow.
Seen as refuge or hammered like the rest


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 February 2020)

Casinos will disappear. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (2 February 2020)

Numbers from China: 304 deads,14500 cases...
No point i think updating the toll, it is developing, and these figures are quite unreliable anyway.
The point is: it is still uncontrolled


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 February 2020)

Let's see if this works:

A股不哭：央行"开市后提供充足流动性" 30个措施护航



《通知》强调，金融系统要加强党的领导，增强“四个意识”，坚定“四个自信”，做到�
�两个维护”，切实把思想和行动统一到习近平总书记的重要指示精神上来，把打赢疫情防控阻击战作�
�当前重大政治任务，全力以赴做好各项金融服务工作

==================================

it says:
A share don't cry. chinese reserve bank will provide plenty liquidity , and provide 30 ways to support financial market/

and it is reserve bank to do their part to stabilize market, to get market react to this virus orderly and rationally , reserve bank will do their best to support this fighting virus war as central Gov. and Xi asked.
it is political agenda !!!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 February 2020)

https://finance.sina.cn/2020-02-01/detail-iimxyqvy9515930.d.html?from=wap

.. that is the webpage. From someone in Australia;_ earlybirds (best translation)

*I'd take it as a positive for the markets??!!*_


----------



## qldfrog (2 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> https://finance.sina.cn/2020-02-01/detail-iimxyqvy9515930.d.html?from=wap
> 
> .. that is the webpage. From someone in Australia;_ earlybirds (best translation)
> 
> *I'd take it as a positive for the markets??!!*_



Yes China will suport its share market but will they buy crown casino shares, or bhp, stockpile iron ore when factories are closed..
Pay citizen to go in holiday here?
Both yuan and chinese market will be supported, not sure when it will reopen either
The problem i see is here, Europe and the US will be ok after a few jitters but our economy is f.cked.
My 2c only


----------



## qldfrog (2 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> https://finance.sina.cn/2020-02-01/detail-iimxyqvy9515930.d.html?from=wap
> 
> .. that is the webpage. From someone in Australia;_ earlybirds (best translation)
> 
> *I'd take it as a positive for the markets??!!*_



Dona,
You could be right and iwould not be completely surprised to see the Aussie market going up tomorrow.
I remember weirder behaviour in 2007


----------



## againsthegrain (2 February 2020)

This is a good test and time for Aus to wake up and start being more self reliant and sufficient. Being so. dependant on China is a weakness,  and relatively speaking China by definition is ruled by the communist party which is the enemy of democracy


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 February 2020)

Yes, quite, guys. But it's better than the alternative. Somebody mentioned 2007, I suspect 2008 and its interventions may be as/ more appropriate. ( Market bottomed in March 2009?!)


----------



## fergee (2 February 2020)

https://www.investing.com/news/econ...llion-via-reverse-repos-on-february-3-2073817
China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on February 3 as markets reopen


----------



## So_Cynical (3 February 2020)

John Hopkins has a simple dashboard tracking global infections deaths etc.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Our market could fall 3 or 4% on Monday with the travel ban, could be one of those sell everything moments...recession must be near certain now with tourism about to be absolutely smashed..


----------



## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/wuhan-coronavirus-hurt-australian-companies-054219758.html
This was before the total travel ban, and does not really go into the commodities bit.
We would be very lucky imho if the impact is below tens of millions.do your own sums :-(


----------



## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

Mortality rate could be much higher than advertised
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/a5d5506601ef56bcc7b2de4e31b64af7
That would make more sense with the chaos in morgues and cremation centers in Wahou


----------



## moXJO (3 February 2020)

China town in Sydney is deserted. Restaurants are doing it extremely tough and I feel sorry for the poor buggers.
 One of my Thai friends was asked if she was Chinese in an uber. She just coughed a lot as the driver recoiled in horror.

People are pretty stupid. 20000 children died from hunger yesterday. ABS statistics showed 1,200 people died due to influenza in 2017in Australia ,  Prof Robert booy said modelling showed the actual number of deaths on average each season was about 3,000 to 4,000. This flu season will be telling.

I often wonder if this flu has been hyped up to hurt the Chinese economy some more after the trade war with the US. There is a very savage and real propaganda attack against the communist regime that has been going on for a while. These panics do come around every so often though.

Yes this flu may be bad, but I don't think the level of panicking is justified.


----------



## bigdog (3 February 2020)

Investors are bracing for the worst day for Australian shares this year, on escalating fears about the damage to economic growth from the deadly coronavirus.

The ASX is set to tumble when trading starts today, with futures pointing to a 1.7 per cent, or 119 point, drop in the S&P/ASX 200 index as investors try to gauge the impact of the virus on growth.

Steep losses are also expected across the rest of Asia today, with Nikkei 225 futures pointing to a 2.1 per cent loss. Wall Street tumbled hard on Friday, with the Dow down 2.1 per cent, the S&P 500 dropping 1.8 per cent and the Nasdaq shedding 1.6 per cent.

Chinese financial markets are set to reopen today for the first time since January 23 as investors return from the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Futures for the mainland CSI 300 index were showing a 3.6 per cent loss when they last traded on January 23.

New Zealand NZ 50 is currently down -2.03%


----------



## joeno (3 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> I often wonder if this flu has been hyped up to hurt the Chinese economy some more after the trade war with the US. There is a very savage and real propaganda attack against the communist regime that has been going on for a while. These panics do come around every so often though.
> 
> Yes this flu may be bad, but I don't think the level of panicking is justified.




I remember the American Swine Flu from 2009 that killed 200,000. Sourced from US Pigs brought in to Mexico. Didn't see flights being banned to the US and everyone having a stroke about it.

There's a theory going in China that perhaps the Coronavirus was introduced by American agents in November 2019 - coincidentally when they had an international trade conference - as a way to begrudge the Chinese government to the whims of the American trade war terms. And to incite an economic downturn (the FBI have been proven to have subverted governments across South America and the ME)

It's kind of convenient they decided it came from snakes / bats / whatever without proof... when most of the initial hosts of the virus were found to not have shopped at the virus. Anyways take this as you will. Crock theory or not.

The prejudice against mainland China is jarring. It's like being the fat boy at school who gets bullied by everyone. Doesn't matter what he does it's wrong and will get him in trouble. It's clear the US hates that a country who does not completely kowtow to them is #2 economic power in the world (in addition to other reasons).

The American government feels like they can assassinate a political figure that they think threatens their people (the Iranian general). Well the DPP regime in Taiwan threatens the populace of China with their pointed missiles and policies of hate and discrimination. E.g. by banning the export of virus masks to China at this current moment. Can the communist government start drone striking Taiwanese politicians? They're the bad guys right so surely they should be doing bad things.

We must be living in a world where good people do bad things and bad people don't. what a world.


----------



## sptrawler (3 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> IMO a lot will depend on how the virus is transmitted, whether by hand or airborn, with SARS it was transferred by hand so relatively easy to contain spray and wipe everything. Airborn not so easy without isolation, which seems to be what is happening.
> If it is airborn, respirators will be in big demand, not the paper masks people are wearing. Companies like Ansell could see some movement.
> Just my opinion.



Well this could be good news, if you can call any news on the virus good news.
But early results are indicating the virus look as though it is transmitted by the anal/ oral route, if so masks are not required, hand washing and wiping everything down, will be the answer.
Lets hope so, because IMO, it will be much easier to contain and eradicate, that is of course unless it gets into schools, kids have always got their fingers in their mouths.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...l-oral-route-xinhua-reports?srnd=premium-asia

The results have echoed similar findings elsewhere, including in Wuhan, 
the epicentre of the virus outbreak
, and the United States, with some scientists saying the research shows it was possible the virus was transmitted via human excrement.


Researchers at Shi Zhengli’s Laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is administered by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, found nucleic acids in stool samples and anal swabs from a group of coronavirus pneumonia patients in the city, according to a report from state news agency Xinhua.


The scientists concluded that the virus could be transmitted “to a certain degree” via facecal-oral transmission


----------



## againsthegrain (3 February 2020)

joeno said:


> I remember the American Swine Flu from 2009 that killed 200,000. Sourced from US Pigs brought in to Mexico. Didn't see flights being banned to the US and everyone having a stroke about it.
> 
> There's a theory going in China that perhaps the Coronavirus was introduced by American agents in November 2019 - coincidentally when they had an international trade conference - as a way to begrudge the Chinese government to the whims of the American trade war terms. And to incite an economic downturn (the FBI have been proven to have subverted governments across South America and the ME)
> 
> ...




More like China is the fat boy bully who pushes everybody around in the region for their lunch money,  e.g south china sea


----------



## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

I actually think the panic is not there yet, we are now talking about potentially 10pc death rates which would fit what we slowly learn from the ground
Chinese people are more than worried, not @joeno who obviously like to repeat the propaganda of the CCP, comfortably here
1 chinese visiting germany factory and we are at 5 infected people, not elderly, not people not washing their hands or eating rats and snake hearts .the more you will know, the faster you will run to the hills, give it 3 weeks


----------



## sptrawler (3 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I actually think the panic is not there yet, we are now talking about potentially 10pc death rates which would fit what we slowly learn from the ground
> Chinese people are more than worried, not @joeno who obviously like to repeat the propaganda of the CCP, comfortably here
> 1 chinese visiting germany factory and we are at 5 infected people, not elderly, not people not washing their hands or eating rats and snake hearts .the more you will know, the faster you will run to the hills, give it 3 weeks



Maybe now we know why China built all these empty cities, maybe a lot of these old areas where sanitation and close proximity living with livestock is a major problem, are going to be bulldozed?
Just a thought.


----------



## moXJO (3 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I actually think the panic is not there yet, we are now talking about potentially 10pc death rates which would fit what we slowly learn from the ground
> Chinese people are more than worried, not @joeno who obviously like to repeat the propaganda of the CCP, comfortably here
> 1 chinese visiting germany factory and we are at 5 infected people, not elderly, not people not washing their hands or eating rats and snake hearts .the more you will know, the faster you will run to the hills, give it 3 weeks



It was a massive media beat up and you have to wonder why. I don't remember similar during  MERS. I doubt most people would have heard of it.

No matter how it started, the media is often weaponized against unfriendly nations


----------



## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe now we know why China built all these empty cities, maybe a lot of these old areas where sanitation and close proximity living with livestock is a major problem, are going to be bulldozed?
> Just a thought.



Honestly,  i believe the current crisis has more to do with a mistake in handling specimens in their research lab then any hygiene issue
Doubt we will know the answer, but having lived and worked in China, there are a lot of shortcuts in procedures, a go go go faster harder mindset does miracle to build cities and building in no time, less positive in handling viruses or even coding bug free software.
Latest figures:361 deaths, 17.2k contaminated
We really have to check the number of outside China propagation as this will be the real indicator of potential pandemic, and realistic death and contamination rate outside the official party line
Just sold FMG put warrant bought last week at 40c, sold today at 60c
Will compensate partly the losses on my 2 systems, i  keep the rio put warrant as a further edge.paper profit similar but i played small so not that much.gold and bboz going well, no regret on any of the non system share sells or super portfolio moves


----------



## fergee (3 February 2020)

Tokyo 2020 olympics may end up being a flop if the Yen continues to strengthen and people are still scared to travel heading into (northern) summer. A lot of investment currently in Japan into building hotels and tourist related infrastructure.


----------



## fergee (3 February 2020)

Right now I think we are possibly about to leave the denial phase and enter the fear phase.

I do question whether there has a been euphoric/exuberant price action over the past year so it could be interesting to see what sort of recovery we have after the coronavirus threat pass's and the correction is over. Also wether or not this event does lead to a recessionary out come.


----------



## fergee (3 February 2020)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12305503
Bird flu detected in Hunan, China.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Yes this flu may be bad, but I don't think the level of panicking is justified.




That may turn out to be true but the panic was started by the Chinese government’s actions.

If there’s an attack on China in all of this then that attack has come mostly from within.


----------



## moXJO (3 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That may turn out to be true but the panic was started by the Chinese government’s actions.
> 
> If there’s an attack on China in all of this then that attack has come mostly from within.



The West has this mentality that every flu is the zombie apocalypse. Every bushfire is the opening of hell. And every slight of one country towards another the next world war.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 February 2020)

fergee said:


> Tokyo 2020 olympics may end up being a flop if the Yen continues to strengthen and people are still scared to travel heading into (northern) summer. A lot of investment currently in Japan into building hotels and tourist related infrastructure.



I can see this scenario with a lot of events and so on.

Even for purely domestic things I’d expect that at least some will stay away due to concerns about being among large crowds etc.

That then has flow on effects to all sorts of businesses.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> The West has this mentality that every flu is the zombie apocalypse. Every bushfire is the opening of hell. And every slight of one country towards another the next world war.



Agreed that’s true at least so far as the mainstream media is concerned but in this case the Chinese themselves have well and truly stoked the fire.

Multiple large cities locked down, people told to not even venture outside, new hospitals built in a hurry and so on.

Those are not rational responses if it’s just a common flu situation and directly add to concerns that it’s far more serious.


----------



## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That may turn out to be true but the panic was started by the Chinese government’s actions.
> 
> If there’s an attack on China in all of this then that attack has come mostly from within.



Panic because of what people in china know, the queues in hospital and morgue clog up etc etc
I am 80pc sure it is much much worse than the worse number released.why would the chinese gov stop the whole of the nation for 2 weeks, why would Guandong province, 1000km away mandate an extra 10 days holiday? To follow the CIA desire?
The frightening side is the most probably man made side of it, so no immunity, potentially designed aspects such as contagious before symptoms and what else?
Potentially as well mutating rapidly and so not responding to vaccine?
There is a lot to be scare of, far more than pig or bird flu, and obviously common glu.
A killer but no way as contagious or lethal.
Anyway, i ieally like seeing some of the denialists it is nothing actually coming from the CC fanatics
Discarding something than can be proven in the next 3 weeks while ready to annihilate our economy for what might have maybe some effects in 80 years .Show you when belief takes over rationality


----------



## moXJO (3 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed that’s true at least so far as the mainstream media is concerned but in this case the Chinese themselves have well and truly stoked the fire.
> 
> Multiple large cities locked down, people told to not even venture outside, new hospitals built in a hurry and so on.
> 
> Those are not rational responses if it’s just a common flu situation and directly add to concerns that it’s far more serious.



They took criticism after the SARS debacle. It deeply impacts  China  every time a flu gets out of control. I'd guess it's more about economic reasons and not letting it spread and prolong the situation. 

I've been told tour  buses have been  hit hard in Australia. Opera house steps are empty.  Chinese supermarkets, restaurants are doing it tough.


----------



## sptrawler (3 February 2020)

Dropping the grandkids at the local school today, I expected to see face masks everywhere as 90% are Asian, not one to be seen.
Obviously people aren't too concerned, or maybe it is just our local area.


----------



## basilio (3 February 2020)

Apparently a vaccine to protect against the Coronavirus will take around 20 months - if all goes well..

_My colleague Kim Willsher has passed along some good news from the Pasteur Institute in Paris, which announced at the weekend that it had managed to isolate and grow a culture of this coronavirus. That means it is available for research, which puts scientists *on track to develop a vaccine*. 

However, that isn’t a quick process. Christophe D’Enfert, a scientific director with the Pasteur Institute, told reporters in Paris the vaccine could be made available in 20 months if “all goes well”.

“At the end of August, we could enter clinical trials and, provided all goes well, obtain a vaccine candidate *within 20 months*,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ts-latest-news-death-toll-climbs-passing-sars_


----------



## Knobby22 (3 February 2020)

Australia beat Paris to the culture and I  heard we can do it in 6 months.


----------



## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

Start counting before you can get immunised at your gp
So 01/08/20 we can get vaccinated in Australia ROL
You'd better be right but that will not save our mines or our tourism/education/casinos or luxury retails.even that early


----------



## joeno (4 February 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279

The attitude on display from the US government and people is nothing short of ignorant. Showing childish animosity and apathy. The so called "leader" of the world is spreading panic and causing fear without an ounce of intention to help out with supplies, contrary to the recommendations of WHO. They're withdrawing all non-essential embassy staff and banning people coming/going from China from China. Causing a precedent for other countries to follow. Guess Americans are only around when there's something to gain (or dare i say, plunder)? Whether it's oil, cheap labour, and to enforce their suzerainty.

^ the type of free speech that would never be allowed to live in America. Typical hypocrites.


----------



## ducati916 (4 February 2020)

China has now 'quarantined' +/- 50M people. With China accounting for +/- 19% of the world economy, and estimates that China will take a 3%/4% hit to GDP, that is +/- $500B to the world economy (so far).

That will eventually show up in local economies and if things don't improve soon, will start to exert a very negative effect on jobs etc.

jog on
duc


----------



## againsthegrain (4 February 2020)

joeno said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279
> 
> The attitude on display from the US government and people is nothing short of ignorant. Showing childish animosity and apathy. The so called "leader" of the world is spreading panic and causing fear without an ounce of intention to help out with supplies, contrary to the recommendations of WHO. They're withdrawing all non-essential embassy staff and banning people coming/going from China from China. Causing a precedent for other countries to follow. Guess Americans are only around when there's something to gain (or dare i say, plunder)? Whether it's oil, cheap labour, and to enforce their suzerainty.
> 
> ^ the type of free speech that would never be allowed to live in America. Typical hypocrites.




yeah well when is the last time China gave aid or helped anybody but them selves,  what comes around goes around


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

@joeno : the voice of his/her master...
Anyway, toll rising, bodies burning


----------



## againsthegrain (4 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @joeno : the voice of his/her master...
> Anyway, toll rising, bodies burning




yet its not that serious "let some of our tourists/sick tour your hospitals please"


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/c3447b296c96b23cdbc771b548c4f7e4
The more it goes, the more obvious it becomes it is a designer virus.
Man made...
Bj will blame the bad Americans
I just blame error/incompetence in the L4 lab.
I noticed how conveniently stable the death rate is
Yet 426 deaths, 20,438 cases
We were below 8000 cases a few days ago can we assume that the people who died were already infected then?
Fair assumption: so at least 426 deaths out of 8k contaminated that brings you 5pc mortality rates
And that is using Chinese fudged numbers
So epidemy is progressing,  mortality rate is at very least 5pc not 2pc .i would trust the 10pc figure quoted by some scientists as quite realistic.
So do the count, 
and learnt today that WHO and google facebook facebook twitters etc have joined to control the information on this outbreak.. obviously to prevent fake news..
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-to-stop-spread-of-coronavirus-misinformation


----------



## fergee (4 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/c3447b296c96b23cdbc771b548c4f7e4
> The more it goes, the more obvious it becomes it is a designer virus.
> Man made...
> Bj will blame the bad Americans
> ...




Just because a virus has a lower mortality does not mean it is less dangerous. If the virus has a higher transmission rate (Ro) then more people may get said virus and more will die as a consequence. I have seen reports of coronavirus having an estimated Ro or 3-4.2(this is not yet proven) just for comparison sars was 2.0.
Here is Kate Winslet from the movie contagion to explain Ro.


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

indeed @fergee I do believe the reality is worse than what people are told, we have been fed a mortality rate of 2% ..which would still be very high , yet the sheer numbers provided show we are at at a minimum of 5%..See above calculation: happy to be demonstrated wrong
As for the propagation the estimates of 75'000 affected by HK uni was based on a conservative ro of 2.6 from memory; as long as ro is above 1, we are going for a serious  issue. even at 5% mortality if 20% of China get affected, we are at 18millions deaths in China..sure some would die from other illnesses otherwise but that would collapse the hospital systems and many would die from other issues: accident, strokes, heart attacks. etc 
And there is no reason this should stay confined to China
The "Spanish flu in 1918" killed more people than both WWI and WWII at a time when travel was slow, population much smaller than now and less dense mostly rural.
Netflix has a pre flu series Pandemy which is most interesting.Invest wisely, stay safe


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

fergee said:


> Just because a virus has a lower mortality does not mean it is less dangerous. If the virus has a higher transmission rate (Ro) then more people may get said virus and more will die as a consequence. I have seen reports of coronavirus having an estimated Ro or 3-4.2(this is not yet proven) just for comparison sars was 2.0.
> Here is Kate Winslet from the movie contagion to explain Ro.




BTW this is a very nice and clear explanation of ro


----------



## basilio (4 February 2020)

If we are really fortunate the international efforts to stop progression of the virus beyond China is largely successful. Hopefully outbreaks in Europe, US many other countries will be contained.

Having said that if China continues to  sicken and more importantly the economic effects of an isolated China expand,  then there will be a squeeze across the world.

In 2003 when SARS  was about China represented around 5% of worlds GDP. It is now around 19%.  That is a lot of grief..

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-composition-of-the-world-economy-by-gdp-ppp/


----------



## SirRumpole (4 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Apparently a vaccine to protect against the Coronavirus will take around 20 months - if all goes well..




By which time the virus would have mutated into something else...


----------



## sptrawler (4 February 2020)

Macau Casino's to close due to virus.
https://www.malaymail.com/news/mone...lose-casinos-for-two-weeks-over-virus/1834366


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2020)

China's oil consumption is reported to have declined by 20%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-is-said-to-have-plunged-20-on-virus-lockdown

If true then that's outright massive and considering how oil is used it would seem a reasonable reflection of the "real" economy at least when viewed in the relatively short term (so ignoring any move to electric cars etc).

I oil use really is down 20% then we can expect to see some pretty substantial volume drops in most commodities.


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> China's oil consumption is reported to have declined by 20%
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-is-said-to-have-plunged-20-on-virus-lockdown
> 
> ...



so my plan against iron, if you stop economic activity in China for a month that is 10% of consumption going in smoke: maybe this year CO2 emissions there will NOT go up?
And this is an already incurred effect so prices should reflect that in iron, oil, copper.lesser effect on COAL but still there


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 February 2020)

one doomster wrote the following







> ...Wuhan announces they have a problem.
> 
> To make matters worse the mayor of Wuhan tells everybody that up to 5 million residents of Wuhan had left the city before it was locked down.
> 
> ...





> What I do know is that the feedback loops have been set in motion and they are negative and intensifying. When markets are priced for perfection even the smallest imperfection can lead to some degree of pain.
> 
> The coronavirus is much, much more than a small imperfection and it entails the dislocation of the second largest economy in the world and the one that contributes more to global growth than any other. This one is very different.



 ...but that was last weekend. He went on to say "Watch for the reopening of the Chinese equity markets after their New Year week-long break". That has now happened, the sky didn't fall in.


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> one doomster wrote the following ...but that was last weekend. He went on to say "Watch for the reopening of the Chinese equity markets after their New Year week-long break". That has now happened, the sky didn't fall in.



So all is good fall less than 10pc with up to 173billions usd of support by the Chinese reserve bank.
Lets go long
And i know the flu kills 60000 person a year we are not yet at a 1000..officially, in a bit more than a month


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And i know the flu kills 60000 person a year we are not yet at a 1000..officially, in a bit more than a month



I don't find these 'facts' useful. It's a pandemic; public health measures that worked in prior cases are in place. We await to see if they are successful. The thread is correctly focused on 
"Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak"


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I don't find these 'facts' useful. It's a pandemic; public health measures that worked in prior cases are in place. We await to see if they are successful. The thread is correctly focused on
> "Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak"



That fact is
So all is good fall less than 10pc with up to 173billions usd of support by the Chinese reserve bank.


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I don't find these 'facts' useful. It's a pandemic; public health measures that worked in prior cases are in place. We await to see if they are successful. The thread is correctly focused on
> "Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak"



You are right, i'd better shut up, and let people swallow the crap doctored news and buy the dip. 
What would i know about China.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 February 2020)

goodness. Not having a go at you.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2020)

The truth on this issue is that as of right now nobody knows with certainty how it will unfold and few if any people on the planet even have a firm basis upon which to make a prediction.

All we know with reasonable certainty is what can be observed and reasonably confirmed - cities shut down, borders closed, people evacuated, drops in commodity consumption, etc which collectively suggest it's a substantial problem at present but don't tell us what happens next.


----------



## qldfrog (5 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> goodness. Not having a go at you.



Sorry @Dona Ferentes , I'm on wechat with my team daily, 1000km from Hubei province and the impact there in the Guandong province is dramatic, no traffic, office and factory closed
 i am getting frustrated by the ignorance of the public here
Not so much for health, it can be deadly but this is not the Spanish flu at all.
But as an economy the aftershocks in Australia can not be other than tremendous and we have absolutely nothing left to rely on outside China
Iron, coal,minerals, agri products and education/tourism hand in hand with China
They slow we freeze
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...k/news-story/24882341b49d4a0dfe9dc99c53fe641c


----------



## sptrawler (5 February 2020)

It is a real mess, we just don't know how much as smurf says, but it is easy to get caught up in it.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship is in quarantine in Yokohama, with about 4,000 passengers and crew onboard, I was on it 8 weeks ago for a month.
Just shows how luck can play an important part in your life.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/british-citizen-broadcasts-live-quarantined-124221526.html


----------



## fergee (5 February 2020)

https://www.ft.com/content/48bae4c0-472e-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
Hyundai having supply chain issues, closing production lines.... who's next?


----------



## SirRumpole (5 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The truth on this issue is that as of right now nobody knows with certainty how it will unfold and few if any people on the planet even have a firm basis upon which to make a prediction.
> 
> All we know with reasonable certainty is what can be observed and reasonably confirmed - cities shut down, borders closed, people evacuated, drops in commodity consumption, etc which collectively suggest it's a substantial problem at present but don't tell us what happens next.




The danger is that China won't tell us the real truth if it looks like that will interfere with their financial interests.


----------



## fergee (5 February 2020)

"LONDON (Reuters) - European stocks jumped sharply on reports that a Chinese university found a drug to treat people with the new coronavirus and researchers in the UK saying they made a "significant breakthrough" in finding a vaccine, several London-based traders said.

A scientist leading UK's research into a coronavirus vaccine told Sky https:// news that his team have made a "significant breakthrough" by reducing a part of the normal development time from two to three years to just 14 days.

Meanwhile, traders also cited a Chinese TV report that a research team at Zhejiang University has found an effective drug to treat people with the new coronavirus sharp for a rise in stocks."


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2020)

Incidentally in casual conversation with someone I don't know very well (but who has some interest in financial markets etc) I just happened to mention that "well we haven't seen any major panic about the virus yet".

They said nothing but looks said it all. Suffice to say I won't be mentioning it again to anyone I don't know extremely well - talking about religion would probably be a safer subject.....


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The danger is that China won't tell us the real truth if it looks like that will interfere with their financial interests.




It's a strange situation but I think one of the more accurate assessments will likely come from OPEC.

Yes the oil cartel - they're having a "technical" meeting in Vienna (OPEC headquarters) to examine the issue as a matter of urgency and given they've got $ billions at stake they'll be trying to get it right in terms of the impact on the oil market.

The outcome of that meeting isn't public and fair chance they won't say anything about what was discussed but it's to be followed by another meeting to decide on implementation and normal practice of OPEC is that this second meeting will be followed by a public statement. Keeping a watch on their oil production and whatever they say publicly after the next meeting will likely be somewhat more telling as to the real level of impact than any government statistics. Most alarming would be if they said absolutely nothing since the practice of making some sort of statement is well established.


----------



## moXJO (6 February 2020)

Possibly the real numbers leaked by tencent.


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Possibly the real numbers leaked by tencent.



In term of impact Shanghai is now threatened by lockdown.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/04/chinese-city-lockdown-approaches-shanghai.html
This would be massive as Shanghai  is one of the 2 key heartlands of the chinese economy/industry
The other one is Guangdong province and the pearl river delta: HK, Shenzhen, Macao and Guangzhou.
So far, Guangdong is to reopen for business on Monday.
I will post if there are related news i im aware of


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> In term of impact Shanghai is now threatened by lockdown.
> https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/04/chinese-city-lockdown-approaches-shanghai.html
> This would be massive as Shanghai  is one of the 2 key heartlands of the chinese economy/industry
> The other one is Guangdong province and the pearl river delta: HK, Shenzhen, Macao and Guangzhou.
> ...



Actually Shenzhen shutting down public transport
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bb4aST8-V61jxe6HHqAaAg
Open with chrome and run the google translate
Crudely:
In order to do a good job in the current stage of the new coronavirus epidemic prevention work in the public transport industry, to protect the health and safety of citizens and passengers, and to combine the current epidemic prevention and control needs, the industry's actual situation and passenger flow, from February 3, 2020, the city will appropriately adjust conventional public transport Line service scale. The relevant matters are notified as follows:


1. All regular bus lines will *extend the departure interval, reduce the departure frequency* or *adjust to scheduled departures.*


*2. The operation of some regional buses, peak lines, night shifts, and inter-city bus lines is temporarily suspended.*


3. Citizens are advised to plan travel time in advance, use mobile apps such as “Traffic in Hand” to check the real-time arrival status of conventional buses, or call the bus service hotline for travel consultation.


----------



## Knobby22 (6 February 2020)

Do you think they will win?
I hear commentators saying the death rate is only 2%, no where near as serious as SARs but 1 in 50 people dying if this gets out seems a big deal to me. I don't want those odds personally or for my family.


----------



## SirRumpole (6 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Do you think they will win?
> I hear commentators saying the death rate is only 2%, no where near as serious as SARs but 1 in 50 people dying if this gets out seems a big deal to me. I don't want those odds personally or for my family.




Comparison of Corona virus with seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Comparison of Corona virus with seasonal flu.
> 
> https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html



I think comparisons should be with h1n1 in term of infection.
Time will tell


----------



## joeno (6 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @joeno : the voice of his/her master...
> Anyway, toll rising, bodies burning




Yes you're right i'm a slave. I was paid. I'm a billionaire shill of commies. Where do you think i have all these 1000s of dollars to invest in the ASX? Anyways... conventional bias and bland "China is bad /didn't do ___ so they deserve it" which would be considered unacceptable if literally any other ethnicity was mentioned instead. I was more focusing on US's reaction but general ignorance is evident even in this thread.

Btw did Americo-sphere countries ban Africans when Ebola hit? Or North Americans with H1N1... Or Middle Eastern people when MERS was around? Hmm... no power play required for those countries.

I apologise for the Chinese / commies... they are ignorant of world affairs and are not cognisant of America's passive aggressive "power plays". Hence they made the choice of containing the disease & causing themselves a lot of damn trouble, rather than simply letting it be and spreading Coronavirus to the world. The wicked thrive and good demise. Can't be too nice/naive in this world. If only the commie government knew...


----------



## joeno (6 February 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> yet its not that serious "let some of our tourists/sick tour your hospitals please"




Hmm not sure if skinhead


againsthegrain said:


> yeah well when is the last time China gave aid or helped anybody but them selves,  what comes around goes around




"Yeah well when is the last time Australia gave aid or helped anybody else but themselves, what comes around (bushfires) goes around"

^ about as true as your statement. It's not ok for Aussies to have treasonous attitudes (or commit treason). It's ok for Chinese people to have treasonous attitudes. It's not ok for people to talk bad about Australia when it's insensitive and there are victims. It's ok if it's China.

It's evident from those "falun dafa" protests to those Shenyun dance brainwashing cult b*******. Nonsense breeding nonsense. Righteousness in lying. A coward's profit in mutual dignity lost.


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

joeno said:


> Hmm not sure if skinhead
> 
> 
> "Yeah well when is the last time Australia gave aid or helped anybody else but themselves, what comes around (bushfires) goes around"
> ...



@joeno You are so playing your own violin. Anyway, rants like that are numerous.all sides...
If you were a real supporter of Chinese people, not the CCP, you could have better issues to raise and real help to give
A quick ignore addition and the noice is gone.


----------



## basilio (6 February 2020)

Could this be a Black Swan event for the stock market and world economy ? It is not slowing down and the range of economic concerns is expanding by the day.

* Will coronavirus make markets take a 'black swan' dive? *
Impact of Chinese outbreak has already rippled out well beyond world’s No 2 economy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...kets-black-swan-dive-chinese-outbreak-economy


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

For some figures as this is what this thread is for
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tAwfmduGXGY3wcMrg0npEQ
This Chine article, from my translation, estimates the loss for the new year spring festival to 1.5 trillion yuans so around 500 billions USD. Numbers are always a trouble in chinese but 1.5 billion yuans would obviously be too small so must be the figure quoted.
The article highlights the pain on startups and SME


----------



## sptrawler (6 February 2020)

I think the people who were evacuated to Christmas Island, should thank their lucky stars, that they aren't on the Diamond Princess cruise ship?
Confined to cabin for two weeks , a lot of these people will be stuck in an inside cabin, which is no bigger than a large bedroom with no window.
Have a bit of a think about that OMG, worse than prison.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...se-ship-diamond-princess-australians/11936102


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think the people who were evacuated to Christmas Island, should thank their lucky stars, that they aren't on the Diamond Princess cruise ship?
> Confined to cabin for two weeks , a lot of these people will be stuck in an inside cabin, which is no bigger than a large bedroom with no window.
> Have a bit of a think about that OMG, worse than prison.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...se-ship-diamond-princess-australians/11936102



But we have to realise it is better than ICU for 2 weeks or the very limited space of a coffin for eternity..


----------



## sptrawler (6 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But we have to realise it is better than ICU for 2 weeks or the very limited space of a coffin for eternity..



Absolutely, I was just highlighting the media making a big song and dance about Christmas Island, rather than putting a positive spin on the fact as a Country we are in a position where we can offer them reasonable quarantine provisions.


----------



## macca (6 February 2020)

Free evacuation flight, free food, free medical, free internet, free gym, private room for each family, grounds to walk around, totally disgusting so, so bad say the whingers but in fact the locals reckon it is better than their own conditions


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 February 2020)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...lobal-economy-is-growing-20200206-p53y72.html

The Chinese Communist Party is actively minimising the numbers of nCoronavirus infections within it's borders, the ability of it's citizens to notify the outside world of the spread of the disease, and the effect on it's economy.

This is not going to end well.

I was extremely surprised to see the market rise today and took the opportunity to offload some stocks I purchased since the last time I went to cash last year.

When an epidemic which is basically due to overpopulation and poor food hygiene is dependent for it's control on some boffin finding a vaccine or a drug for a virus which can mutate, it is indeed "brave" to invest on such a hope.

We are "rooned".

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 February 2020)

This sounds rather bad:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html



> BIMCO members, which include 1,900 shipowners, operators, managers, brokers and agents, report limited or no demand from Chinese buyers of seaborne commodities, such as coal, crude oil and iron ore


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 February 2020)

It gets worse. From the Wall St. Journal. China, it appears, will be unable to implement the tariff agreement with the US. 

Excuse the formatting. 

*China Set to Halve Its Tariffs On $75 Billion of U.S. Imports*

*BY* *LINGLING WEI
BEIJING*—China said Thurs- day that it will slash tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports by half as part of an effort to im- plement the recently signed trade deal with Washington.
China’s Ministry of Finance said that starting Feb. 14, 10% tariffs on some U.S. goods would be cut to 5%, while other goods that have faced 5% levies will have those re- duced to 2.5%.
Those tariffs were imposed in September and December during a trade fight between the world’s two largest econo- mies.
The tariff reduction comes amid growth doubt over Bei- jing’s resolve and ability to carry out the phase-one agree- ment, in which China has
pledged to boost its purchases of American merchandise and services by $200 billion over two years.
*A new viral outbreak that started in China in late Janu- ary and has spread to more than a dozen countries has caused a near-standstill in economic activity in the coun- try. Chinese authorities have put many parts of the country on lockdown to contain the outbreak. 
Even before the outbreak, many economists and ana- lysts have cast doubt over Beijing’s ability to meet the purchasing targets, involving products including soybeans, poultry, oil and gas and man- ufactured goods. *
Now, the weakening Chi- nese economy in the face of the virus could make it more
difficult for Beijing to carry out all the pledges.
But the tariff decision an- nounced by China Thursday indicates that the Chinese leadership remains intent on implementing the deal that has helped halt the nearly two-year trade war between the two nations.
“China hopes that both par- ties can abide by the agree- ment, strive to implement the relevant content of the agree- ment, strengthen market con- fidence, promote the develop- ment of bilateral economic and trade relations, and pro- mote world economic growth,” the statement issued by the Finance Ministry said.
The products covered by the tariff decision include auto parts, agricultural products, chemicals and crude oil.
The biggest section of the phase-one deal covers Chinese pledges to increase U.S. im- ports. Beijing agreed to buy an additional $200 billion in goods, with the deal calling for $77 billion in additional trade in 2020 and $123 billion in 2021.
Across the two years, the targets call for China to boost its purchasing above the levels seen in 2017 by about $78 bil- lion in manufacturing, $32 bil- lion in agriculture, $52 billion in energy and $38 billion of services. In 2017, the U.S. ex- ported $186 billion of goods and services. To fulfill the tar- gets in the deal, U.S. exports to China would need to climb to $263 billion in 2020 and $309 billion in 2021, an in- crease without precedent in the history of U.S. trade. 

gg


----------



## So_Cynical (6 February 2020)

It's just not slowing down, should be plateauing soon if they really do have it under control. 
~


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 February 2020)

If gas isn't being used then that's a reasonable indication that factories are idle:



> China's biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also rejected shipments, telling some suppliers that it would not accept delivery of cargoes because of constraints caused by the coronavirus.




https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/...stries-china-cuts-orders-200206055926135.html


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 February 2020)

A view from Singapore

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject...e-minister-on-diversifying-supply-chains.html


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

macca said:


> Free evacuation flight, free food, free medical, free internet, free gym, private room for each family, grounds to walk around, totally disgusting so, so bad say the whingers but in fact the locals reckon it is better than their own conditions



I believe it is just the globalists who can not admit the illegal immigrants were taken care of properly in Christmas Island.
so the place has to be evil..dirty hot cold whatever
In the same way any true refugee would be happy to be safe there with their family, most quarantined people there with a bit of intelligence must be very overjoyed to be alive and safe/safer


----------



## qldfrog (6 February 2020)

Factories are closed over most of China until at least Monday


Smurf1976 said:


> If gas isn't being used then that's a reasonable indication that factories are idle:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/...stries-china-cuts-orders-200206055926135.html


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I believe it is just the globalists who can not admit the illegal immigrants were taken care of properly in Christmas Island.
> so the place has to be evil..dirty hot cold whatever
> In the same way any true refugee would be happy to be safe there with their family, most quarantined people there with a bit of intelligence must be very overjoyed to be alive and safe/safer



yes but these spinners of falsehoods believe
a) in the tooth fairy
b) that its their entitlement to rule
c) the last election was stolen
d) and Kafka was a work of fiction

As long as e) doesn't come to pass, I'll just keep chuckling along and ignore them
e) being; off to the re-education camp for the recalcitrants


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Factories are closed over most of China until at least Monday



I should have added that I mean closed as in closed more than they were expected to be closed for Chinese New Year etc.

I understand that there's normally a slowdown at this time of year in China but to be literally turning away entire ship loads of commodities, especially ones with very broad application in their end use such as gas, suggests the slowdown is substantially greater than just normal New Year stuff etc.

It also has potentially major implications for Australia given that iron ore, coal and gas are our top commodity exports.


----------



## qldfrog (7 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I should have added that I mean closed as in closed more than they were expected to be closed for Chinese New Year etc.
> 
> I understand that there's normally a slowdown at this time of year in China but to be literally turning away entire ship loads of commodities, especially ones with very broad application in their end use such as gas, suggests the slowdown is substantially greater than just normal New Year stuff etc.
> 
> It also has potentially major implications for Australia given that iron ore, coal and gas are our top commodity exports.



You are right:
 everything should have restarted full speed this week, and that does not even consider areas in full lockdown.
 if SZ(Shenzhen) is supposed to start back on monday, i wonder how if public transport is heavily shut down
I think Australia is often missing the size factor in China.
hard to even imagine until you go there
SZ is 12.5 millions in a modern city building most of your made in china electronic and software
11 metro lines transporting 6 millions people a day, to run this city and make your IBM ThinkPad or smartphone.if public transport is limited, so will be work activities.
I am repeating myself but even if a miracle cure is found next week and a vaccine at the end of the month(dreaming) the effects of what has already happened will be very hard on us especially.
Far far less on the US or Europe but having the ASX above 7100 today seems complete lunacy.
I am aware we should not spread panic as it can self generate ill effects, but being blindsided is not great either.
I recommend people make their own judgements and basically look at the weight of China in our economy then act to their best interest


----------



## SirRumpole (7 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I should have added that I mean closed as in closed more than they were expected to be closed for Chinese New Year etc.
> 
> I understand that there's normally a slowdown at this time of year in China but to be literally turning away entire ship loads of commodities, especially ones with very broad application in their end use such as gas, suggests the slowdown is substantially greater than just normal New Year stuff etc.
> 
> It also has potentially major implications for Australia given that iron ore, coal and gas are our top commodity exports.




I suppose there will always be an initial shock followed by a settling down and management of the situation.

If the slowdown lasts for more than a couple of months then I think we are looking at a serious issue.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 February 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...pered-by-coronavirus-casino-shutdown/11942502



gg


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## qldfrog (7 February 2020)

Prophetic gg?


Garpal Gumnut said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...pered-by-coronavirus-casino-shutdown/11942502
> 
> 
> 
> gg


----------



## againsthegrain (7 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @joeno You are so playing your own violin. Anyway, rants like that are numerous.all sides...
> If you were a real supporter of Chinese people, not the CCP, you could have better issues to raise and real help to give
> A quick ignore addition and the noice is gone.




whoaa the communist propaganda trumpet,  people in Australia and the West are too intelligent to eat up this kind of bs,  please leave it back in China and North Korea. I have no problem with Chinese coming here but don't bring the brainwashing with you


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## Johny5 (7 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I think Australia is often missing the size factor in China.
> hard to even imagine until you go there
> SZ is 12.5 millions in a modern city building most of your made in china electronic and software
> 11 metro lines transporting 6 millions people a day, to run this city and make your IBM ThinkPad or smartphone.if public transport is limited, so will be work activities.
> ...




Something to ponder is that during the SARS outbreak, China only represented about 2% of global economic output but recently it has been edging closer to 18%. So comparing the impact of Caronavirus to SARS could be very misleading. The economic effects on Australia could be devastating if the shutdown situation in China continues for months. I'm surprised that our market is holding up so well, why hasn't Qantas, Crown and other travel exposed stocks crashed, why is BHP still above $38 (should be more like $34), I agree with qldfrog 7100 complete lunacy. Is their something I'm missing here? I'm looking at shorting opportunities (not something I normally do).


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## qldfrog (7 February 2020)

2018: could not find more recent:


2003: SARS:below 15billions:


We are roughly 10 times more exposed..probably does not include tourism, etc and not in indexed currency
So any comparison with SARS economic effects  is not realistic here


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## Smurf1976 (7 February 2020)

Johny5 said:


> I'm surprised that our market is holding up so well, why hasn't Qantas, Crown and other travel exposed stocks crashed



My perception is that most Australians are in denial about the seriousness of the problem.

The market will get a lot more “interesting” really quickly when that changes.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 February 2020)

It would appear that Oil is cheaper, just going on the bowser, so oil price is falling. This may be a trap for the unwary shorters in that commodity and oil stocks, though, as oil can be contrary due to the ability to turn supply off or down.

The Cruise Industry is about to stop cruising, and the hordes of cruisers will return, if they can, to their medication and bowls. 

The Casinos are cactus.

The Airlines have already been affected, VA no longer going to HK and QA price falling.

All is woe. 

gg


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2020)

Thinking about this on and off, I'm thinking that the single biggest economic risk would be a banking crisis in China.

I don't have a specific reason for saying that other than that if businesses are shut well then money isn't circulating and that's going to lead to defaults in practice. On the other end of those defaults is a bank.

Now I wonder to what extent there are potential flow on effects to banks outside of China?


----------



## ducati916 (8 February 2020)

Latest:

Deaths: 635
Infections: 31,432 and rising at 3000/day

Estimates put cost at 2.5% of World GDP or $2T

Supply chains across Asia are now disrupted. Singapore has gone to Orange alert.

jog on
duc


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## Knobby22 (8 February 2020)

On the good side, rate of transmission is slowing, no longer exponential. Seems the Chinese are winning. These assumptions that it is 10 times worse are likely an exaggeration by the usual suspects.

The danger is that it takes off in a country like the Philippines. That is what I really fear.


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## qldfrog (8 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> On the good side, rate of transmission is slowing, no longer exponential. Seems the Chinese are winning. These assumptions that it is 10 times worse are likely an exaggeration by the usual suspects.
> 
> The danger is that it takes off in a country like the Philippines. That is what I really fear.



Or Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, Mexico..you name it
We check tourists and some got it, what about places where they do not did not check them, or Africa which is now a Chinese outpost
I can not see how it can be possible to contain it, we can gain time for remedy, development of vaccine but it is too far spread imho to be contained as SARS was


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## Johny5 (8 February 2020)

Just thinking about good old nine lives Australia, think about all the economic crises we've survived over the past 30 years, Australia always seems to come out on top (well not totally unscathed). Many Asian countries look at Australia as a safe haven from disease, terrorism and many other nasties, many are champing at the bit to emigrate to Australia. But most pathways for easy emigration are being blocked, however one pathway is still open the "Business Innovation and Investment visa". So maybe more wealthy Asians will take up the opportunity to invest and live in Australia, I'm sure the government will welcome their millions with open arms, but it may only prop up Sydney and Melbourne, with hopefully a flow on effect to other states. So will Australia triumph yet again.


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## againsthegrain (8 February 2020)

Johny5 said:


> Just thinking about good old nine lives Australia, think about all the economic crises we've survived over the past 30 years, Australia always seems to come out on top (well not totally unscathed). Many Asian countries look at Australia as a safe haven from disease, terrorism and many other nasties, many are champing at the bit to emigrate to Australia. But most pathways for easy emigration are being blocked, however one pathway is still open the "Business Innovation and Investment visa". So maybe more wealthy Asians will take up the opportunity to invest and live in Australia, I'm sure the government will welcome their millions with open arms, but it may only prop up Sydney and Melbourne, with hopefully a flow on effect to other states. So will Australia triumph yet again.




Maybye or maybye the bushfires, climate change and unpredictable Aus govt make Australia a less stable country to go to


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## MovingAverage (8 February 2020)

Too many posts in this thread to read them all...but thing that seems to have fallen by the wayside and not getting much media attention of late is why China refused to provide the virus to WHO despite being able to easily to do so? It took Australian researchers to "copy" the virus and provide it to WHO. Why would China not assist WHO and provide the virus????


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 February 2020)

There is way too much conflicting information on the nCoronavirus and it's spread/lethality to make any sense or prediction on it's effects.

So I'm going downstairs to the public bar to have a few beers, listen to the welded wisdom of the drinkers at the Ross Island Hotel and wait this out pro tem.

gg


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## Smurf1976 (8 February 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There is way too much conflicting information on the nCoronavirus and it's spread/lethality to make any sense or prediction on it's effects.



A big problem is uncertainty as to the accuracy of the information which has been released.

Officially there are 34,896 cases with 724 deaths but there are plenty who dispute those figures with their basis ranging from claiming that there has been genuine under counting of infection rates through insufficient testing through to claims that the figures are outright lies.

That being so, and given the impracticality for any of us to verify the facts, I'm treating the issue with caution so far as investing is concerned with the thinking that there's a fair chance we'll see a panic in the markets before this is finished.


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## So_Cynical (9 February 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> It's just not slowing down, should be plateauing soon if they really do have it under control.
> ~
> View attachment 100137



~
And we have the beginnings of a plateau, still tourism etc will take a couple of months at least to get back to close to normal.
~


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 February 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> And we have the beginnings of a plateau



I sure hope you're right but for me it's a bit in the "unconvinced" category.

That's referring to the underlying situation not you or your post. 

I just bought something from China on eBay. It's a cheap off the shelf item, value about $3, but the quoted delivery time is 6 weeks to 3 months.

Suffice to say I can only assume there's some virus impact embedded in that time since it's a standard "off the shelf" item as such. Just as well I'm not in a hurry - won't be using it until November just bought it now so I don't forget. If that time turns out to be real though well then the situation would seem to be having quite some impact.

I think we're about to find out the truth on all this over the coming week or two.

Claimed number infected in China = 34,620.

So that's less than the population of Dubbo or Warrnambool in a country with almost 1.4 billion people.

Monday is the 10th of February, getting a bit late to stretch out the New Year stuff, and I think that if the factories don't resume production then it's going to become more difficult by the day to keep stretching it out whilst retaining credibility. One way or another, we're rapidly approaching a point where the truth is going to become apparent.

Either outcome will move the markets is my expectation. Factories resume production etc = good news. Factories etc don't resume production = adds a lot of weight to those questioning the accuracy of the statistics.

Time's about up is my thinking.


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## qldfrog (9 February 2020)

News from France this morning:
Brits back from Singapore 3d trip..probably business
Stop for a short week of skiing in french alps in a chalet with 2 flats
Result:5 people confirmed contaminated, both flats inc a local 9y old boy
2 schools closed tests underways
Just to show how contagious it can be and it is not restricted to China
anymore.In SZ 900km from Wuhan, work expected to restart tomorrow.
Employers checking province of origin, in the town, any case trigger whole building lockdown.
While i believe China is doing/has done has much as could be done, i am worried about the emergence of a new uncontrolled hotspot somewhere else.like Cambodia or similar country without the power to fight it
With Australians,  Germans, Frenchs, infected , people might start reacting a bit differently my 2c.
The link https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/coronavirus-5-nouveaux-cas-en-france-20200208


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## qldfrog (9 February 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> ~
> And we have the beginnings of a plateau, still tourism etc will take a couple of months at least to get back to close to normal.
> ~
> View attachment 100205



Hope pray you are right, i do not trust the figures but trends might be preserved


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## qldfrog (9 February 2020)

Economic impact
Surgical masks in Australia: 3 weeks ago on ebay 
20 for below 13$ delivered.got them in a week
Yesterday, same seller,same product
35$
Chinese buying them reimported from Brazil at  7$ a piece  plus postage..a lot of money there
There is no availability, production is 20 millions a day as told there, not enough..and restricted to doctors and medics..but still mandatory to get outside in most of China
Expect shortage to extend outside China


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## qldfrog (9 February 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lia-could-be-among-worlds-hardest-hit-nations


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## fergee (9 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I sure hope you're right but for me it's a bit in the "unconvinced" category.
> 
> That's referring to the underlying situation not you or your post.
> 
> ...




6weeks to 3months is standard sea shipping time from China that's one of the reasons why your product was $3 inc shipping Im guessing.

I think the stone has been cast and the economic ripples will reach the shore line later this year not just in China but around the world.

The real question imo is how will markets react to that will they even flinch or just dip and rally? Where do you even park your cash? Bonds are in a bubble, bank interest rates are near zero, dividend yields low and stock market at all time highs, pet rocks(gold) no yield, bitcoin no yield, property yields close to zero and markets at all  time highs?

Will the 2020s be the Roaring twenties V2?


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 February 2020)

From the Sunday Times of London.

*UK faces ‘major’ coronavirus outbreak, warns world expert*
*New disease is greater threat than ebola and could overwhelm NHS*


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...navirus-outbreak-warns-world-expert-wxf628g75

It's behind a paywall so you may not be able to link to it.

gg


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## Johny5 (9 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Chinese buying them reimported from Brazil at 7$ a piece plus postage..a lot of money there
> There is no availability, production is 20 millions a day as told there, not enough..and restricted to doctors and medics..but still mandatory to get outside in most of China
> Expect shortage to extend outside China




Foxconn (yes the one that makes the Apple iPhones) has switched some of its production lines to make masks for its own staff (and others) so that it can restart its electronics production lines without too much fear of its workers catching the coronavirus, what ingenuity


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## Johny5 (9 February 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> climate change and unpredictable Aus govt make Australia a less stable country to go to



I partially agree but Australia continues to defy all financial logic. American friends of mine just don't believe me when I tell them about house prices here, they say oh for that price it must be a mansion close to the city with 7+ bedrooms 5+ bathrooms on an acre of land, when I tell them, that's for a 3 bedroom 1 bathroom on 1/8 of an acre and more than 20 miles from the city, oh and needs renovation, they just tell me to get off the drugs and book into rehab. Property is one of our biggest wealth creators, I always think that one day it really has to crash (like by 60% or more) but it never does. I always look the fool when I keep saying its going to crash, meanwhile property prices double again.


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## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

Johny5 said:


> I partially agree but Australia continues to defy all financial logic. American friends of mine just don't believe me when I tell them about house prices here, they say oh for that price it must be a mansion close to the city with 7+ bedrooms 5+ bathrooms on an acre of land, when I tell them, that's for a 3 bedroom 1 bathroom on 1/8 of an acre and more than 20 miles from the city, oh and needs renovation, they just tell me to get off the drugs and book into rehab. Property is one of our biggest wealth creators, I always think that one day it really has to crash (like by 60% or more) but it never does. I always look the fool when I keep saying its going to crash, meanwhile property prices double again.



The problem is there is a growing population and most newcomers want to live in Sydney, Melbourne, so it just goes back to supply and demand.
When people stop buying prices will come down as happens everywhere, while people are prepared to pay the prices, they will just rise to what the market can bear.


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## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

My gut feeling about the economic implications of the coronavirus is, when it is finally under control, the urbanization of the Chinese population will take on a new impetus.
The Chinese Government wont want a repeat of this, or even worse, so i think major steps will be made to 'clean up' the issues.
This in turn will IMO will cause another acceleration in demand for raw materials.

With the Western World driving toward carbon neutral and China urbanizing, I think we may be on the cusp of another major boom in Australia. Time will tell.
Just my thoughts.


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## Smurf1976 (9 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> This in turn will OMO will cause another acceleration in demand for raw materials.



OMO?

That one's gone over my head.....


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## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> OMO?
> 
> That one's gone over my head.....



Just corrected it, I've got a Corona beer bottle induced, thing happening here.
Probably have to be carefull what you say, even in jest.


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is there is a growing population and most newcomers want to live in Sydney, Melbourne, so it just goes back to supply and demand.
> When people stop buying prices will come down as happens everywhere, while people are prepared to pay the prices, they will just rise to what the market can bear.



I remember when Melbourne was a wasteland for property investment in the early 1980's. 

It developed and boomed on wool and gold in the 19th century.

It will bust again, boom and bust is a natural cycle anywhere. 

gg


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## noirua (9 February 2020)

Virus outbreak simply reinforces current trends
https://www.mitongroup.com/virus-outbreak-simply-reinforces-current-trends/


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## qldfrog (9 February 2020)

noirua said:


> Virus outbreak simply reinforces current trends
> https://www.mitongroup.com/virus-outbreak-simply-reinforces-current-trends/



Interesting article: great find @noirua , i invite others to rid, from. A higher perspective


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## basilio (9 February 2020)

The  economic effects of the current epidemic are becoming very stark. This story has much more than just the headlines.

*British universities face long shutdown of Chinese campuses as virus spreads*
Colleges must close until next month, while UK firms in the country face dramatic losses

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ities-in-china-face-shutdown-over-coronavirus


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## Smurf1976 (10 February 2020)

noirua said:


> Virus outbreak simply reinforces current trends



Agreed - it fits with the trend away from globalism which has been emerging for quite a while now. This virus didn't start it, nor did Brexit or the "border adjustment" idea to enforce environmental or labour standards but they're all steps along the way. The whole free trade versus protectionism thing is after all just a cycle like many economic and political things are.

Meanwhile in the immediate term there's some drama emerging with minerals it seems: https://www.theage.com.au/business/...a-shipments-due-to-virus-20200209-p53z2w.html


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## basilio (10 February 2020)

As qldfrog noted on  the  other thread it seems the virus is now transmissible by air.  You can catch it by breathing air expelled by an infected person. It is also more difficult to  test fro infection

This isn't getting better

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-confirms-coronavirus-is-airborne/ar-BBZOXg2


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## sptrawler (10 February 2020)

This is going to hurt the education business model.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...l-ban-due-to-coronavirus-20200210-p53zd8.html
From the article:
Australia is set to extend its coronavirus travel ban in a move expected to hammer the education sector and block 100,000 international students from entering the country in time for the start of semester.
The extension of the travel ban, which is not expected to be formally announced until Saturday and could last another fortnight, will rattle the university sector as it prepares for lectures to begin without tens of thousands of students. Orientation Week at many universities is due to start on February 24.

Up to 56 per cent of the Chinese international student cohort at Australia's top universities remain overseas, including 65,000 from the Group of Eight, including Monash, the University of Sydney and the University of Melbourne.


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## basilio (11 February 2020)

Certainly hit the Unis but it will also impact accommodation, and retail outlets that won't see the spending power of so many people.

I would think that if these students represented even 5%  of the spend in the CBD this loss would be serious

On  top of that the collapse in Chinese tourism will add another blow to the economy. Honestly I think there will be serious unraveling in the next  1-2 months. Watch the next quarters GDP figures...

*Bushfires and coronavirus twin disasters hit Australia's tourism sector*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...navirus-bushfires-hit-tourism-sector/11949922


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## qldfrog (11 February 2020)

https://www.ccn.com/3-reasons-why-stock-market-headed-for-devastating-correction/
I especially find the graph dry baltic shipping figures vs sp500 interesting
Oil copper when next for iron?
Further lockdown in place in BJ
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/12513031d12b504a33c194194ab05735


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## barney (11 February 2020)

I wonder if there is any truth in Guo Wengui suggestion that the real figure on deaths could be as high as 50,000 or is that just sensationalism?

Official death toll in China is 800+  … Big difference

https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/


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## SirRumpole (11 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Certainly hit the Unis but it will also impact accommodation, and retail outlets that won't see the spending power of so many people.
> 
> I would think that if these students represented even 5%  of the spend in the CBD this loss would be serious
> 
> ...




Surely there could be some remote access classrooms set up , or online video lectures could be done for a lot of courses I would think.


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## qldfrog (11 February 2020)

They can get that already from British Unis based in China
Still a money earner but not the same as students here


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## Smurf1976 (11 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Surely there could be some remote access classrooms set up , or online video lectures could be done for a lot of courses I would think.




They could but the thing about education exports is that actual education is only part of what's really being sold. 

If the student doesn't physically end up in Australia then to considerable extent the value of the transaction has been eroded. Online etc is thus really only a very short term interim sort of solution.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> They could but the thing about education exports is that actual education is only part of what's really being sold.
> 
> If the student doesn't physically end up in Australia then to considerable extent the value of the transaction has been eroded. Online etc is thus really only a very short term interim sort of solution.



 indeed, the numbers moving from an education Visa at graduation to 457 or, hopefully, PR is astoundingly high


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## Smurf1976 (11 February 2020)

> Almost 400 million people are now under some from of coercive quarantine




https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ear-recession-world-holds-breath-coronavirus/

If that's correct then this is far, far worse than most seem to be assuming.

In Australian terms it's comparable to saying we've just locked down all of Brisbane plus literally the whole of WA, SA, NT and Tas. If we did that then without mining, farming, fishing, manufacturing, tourism and so on in those states running the country would be in quite a spot of bother rather quickly. 

In the context of China, well 400 million's going to bring rather a lot of things to a halt surely?


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## SirRumpole (11 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> They could but the thing about education exports is that actual education is only part of what's really being sold.
> 
> If the student doesn't physically end up in Australia then to considerable extent the value of the transaction has been eroded. Online etc is thus really only a very short term interim sort of solution.




Sure, short term solutions for short term problems (hopefully that is what it will be).

At least it will let the students keep up with their courses until they can get here in person.


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## basilio (12 February 2020)

Update on the COVID-19 virus from World Health Organsiation. China  is struggling to control the outbreak. Pouring billions in factories to keep them solvent.  The risk  to stability around the world is, they suggest, bigger than terrorism.

I suggest the economic impact will be felt  far more quickly than markets are currently factoring.

 Print Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
*WHO warns coronavirus, now dubbed COVID-19, is 'public enemy number 1' and potentially more powerful than terrorism*
The first vaccine targeting the new coronavirus could be 18 months away, and the outbreak could end up creating a global threat potentially worse than terrorism, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.
Key points:


    The novel coronavirus is now known as COVID-19

A British "super-spreader" is being held in quarantine despite making a full recovery

More than 1,000 people have died and more than 43,000 people have been infected


WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva the vaccine lag meant "we have to do everything today using available weapons" and said the epidemic posed a "very grave threat".

"To be honest, a virus is more powerful in creating political, economic and social upheaval than any terrorist attack," Dr Ghebreyesus said. 

"A virus can have more powerful consequences than any terrorist action. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-12/coronavirus-public-enemy-number-one-vaccine/11956446


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## moXJO (12 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Update on the COVID-19 virus from World Health Organsiation. China  is struggling to control the outbreak. Pouring billions in factories to keep them solvent.  The risk  to stability around the world is, they suggest, bigger than terrorism.
> 
> I suggest the economic impact will be felt  far more quickly than markets are currently factoring.



Australia will feel the full force of any slowdown.
The virus is meh, the economic side for Australia is what has got me worried.


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## notting (12 February 2020)

16% in a day is no meh -

Shares in Blackmores sank 16 per cent after the high-flying vitamins producer unveiled a profit downgrade triggered by the coronavirus outbreak, which the company has conceded could disrupt its shipments to China for up to three months.

The pain will also be immediate, with the uncertainty around coronavirus and eroded margins prompting Blackmores to skip its interim dividend.

It is the latest company to warn that the spread of the coronavirus will play havoc with sales into China, as well as disrupting supply chains and transport links.

A2M has a pretty big suitcase trade too.  Yet it is up.


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## moXJO (12 February 2020)

notting said:


> 16% in a day is no meh -
> 
> Shares in Blackmores sank 16 per cent after the high-flying vitamins producer unveiled a profit downgrade triggered by the coronavirus outbreak, which the company has conceded could disrupt its shipments to China for up to three months.
> 
> ...



That was what I meant. The economic side of the flu will be worse than the overall health impacts.


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## Smurf1976 (12 February 2020)

notting said:


> Shares in Blackmores sank 16 per cent



This one's a good illustration of the disconnect between the market and reality at present.

Shares in BKL were trending up, reaching a recent high on Thursday last week and then we have today's plunge.

Pretty clearly the expectations were very different from reality.


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## sptrawler (12 February 2020)

Well if we consider most of our junk comes from China and these days companies don't carry a lot of inventory, the retail wreckage thread come become very busy.IMO


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## fergee (12 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> This one's a good illustration of the disconnect between the market and reality at present.
> 
> Shares in BKL were trending up, reaching a recent high on Thursday last week and then we have today's plunge.
> 
> Pretty clearly the expectations were very different from reality.



Where does BKL source their ingredients from? It may be a supply chain issue as well as difficulties getting products into China.


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## Smurf1976 (12 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well if we consider most of our junk comes from China and these days companies don't carry a lot of inventory, the retail wreckage thread come become very busy.IMO



We seem to be seeing quite a bit of the conventional business and economic ideas being called into question recently.

"Just in time inventory management" could be the next one?


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## qldfrog (12 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> That was what I meant. The economic side of the flu will be worse than the overall health impacts.



I will rephrase this as:
we do not know / have any idea of the overall health impacts but the economic side of the flu will be substantial


----------



## moXJO (12 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well if we consider most of our junk comes from China and these days companies don't carry a lot of inventory, the retail wreckage thread come become very busy.IMO



I was just about to whinge about this the other day. Nobody carries stock anymore. I try to get parts and end up having to wait a week all too frequently. Year's ago it was in and out with the part.


----------



## sptrawler (12 February 2020)

Tonight when I checked the mail, I asked the guy over the road about the issue, he imports outdoor furniture. He said he already has a problem with delays and people are cancelling their orders because of the delays, so it will become a big issue very quickly IMO. I wonder how companies like Hardly Normal will go, I wouldn't think they carry a big inventory, other than floor stock.
When we ordered a extendable dinning table and six chairs, we had to wait a couple of months, so I don't think it was in Australia. I could be wrong, time will tell.


----------



## moXJO (12 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Tonight when I checked the mail, I asked the guy over the road about the issue, he imports outdoor furniture. He said he already has a problem with delays and people are cancelling their orders because of the delays, so it will become a big issue very quickly IMO. I wonder how companies like Hardly Normal will go, I wouldn't think they carry a big inventory, other than floor stock.
> When we ordered a extendable dinning table and six chairs, we had to wait a couple of months, so I don't think it was in Australia. I could be wrong, time will tell.



Get ready for price hikes all round.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 February 2020)

Chinese Grand Prix postponed:

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/51471569



> The FIA, Formula 1's governing body, has accepted a request from Chinese organisers to postpone the Shanghai race, due to take place on *19 April*.




Emphasis mine - point being that clearly a prompt resolution is not expected if they're cancelling an event that was scheduled to take place more than two months away.


----------



## qldfrog (13 February 2020)

Barcelona world telco conference cancelled:
https://www.lefigaro.fr/secteur/hig...ms-a-barcelone-est-finalement-annule-20200212
Effets can be unexpected


----------



## qldfrog (13 February 2020)

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-rapid-rebound-thesis-tested-103902810.html
Interesting to know which money is getting in and out of the market now.
Who are the suckers?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> ...Who are the suckers?



It's not really suckers, the outcome is more nuanced than a binary set of options.

The risks have increased/ broadened, so it's best to position according to the new set of circumstances.







> “I don’t think we can say that it is just a quarterly shock that then everything goes back to normal,” Alexandra Heath, head of economic analysis at the Reserve Bank of Australia, said on Wednesday.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 February 2020)

_We got the Times_


https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproj...1/business/china-coronavirus-commodities.html


----------



## qldfrog (13 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It's not really suckers, the outcome is more nuanced than a binary set of options.
> 
> The risks have increased/ broadened, so it's best to position according to the new set of circumstances.



All yesterday and last night it was good news galore, asx going up this morning etc
Anyone who cares to know is aware of the trade freezing , collapsing demands etc
But your smsf, run of the mill managers read the media feels all good and buy the dip, with many more knowledgeable bigger players offloading at a great price.
Then the reverse will happen in a few months when the issue will be basically over or fully taken into account price wise.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> All yesterday and last night it was good news galore, asx going up this morning etc
> Anyone who cares to know is aware of the trade freezing , collapsing demands etc....



Well, all I know is that I took some money off the table a few weeks ago. Its sitting there burning a hole, but/ and everything I sold is still cheaper than my sell prices. Watchful waiting....


----------



## sptrawler (13 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _We got the Times_
> 
> 
> https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/business/china-coronavirus-commodities.amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCKAE=#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/business/china-coronavirus-commodities.html



This is probably one of the reasons the financial sector in Aust is doing o.k, not as reliant on the China economy, as the miners.


----------



## qldfrog (13 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Well, all I know is that I took some money off the table a few weeks ago. Its sitting there burning a hole, but/ and everything I sold is still cheaper than my sell prices. Watchful waiting....



I think you did the right move, it is probably the duty of governments to avoid panic, keep wallets open, and it is our duty as citizens to read thru the lines and not gulp any propaganda, whatever the subject


----------



## fergee (13 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I think you did the right move, it is probably the duty of governments to avoid panic, keep wallets open, and it is our duty as citizens to read thru the lines and not gulp any propaganda, whatever the subject



Very well said, I couldn't agree more with that statement.


----------



## Knobby22 (13 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I think you did the right move, it is probably the duty of governments to avoid panic, keep wallets open, and it is our duty as citizens to read thru the lines and not gulp any propaganda, whatever the subject



I can't work out what's going on.

I haven't acted yet as I am looking for evidence. I'm actually up a bit likely due to the type of shares I hold (mostly biotech, new economy financials). Up again today. 

Also according to the Market Index site overall volatility is low. Low?

It doesn't add up. I feel I am missing something.

Maybe the serious money has decided that the virus is not deadly enough to cause that much carnage? Or China will win and it won't spread?

These guys are paid to think about this stuff full time and I don't buy the line that government propaganda would be that effective.


----------



## qldfrog (14 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I can't work out what's going on.
> 
> I haven't acted yet as I am looking for evidence. I'm actually up a bit likely due to the type of shares I hold (mostly biotech, new economy financials). Up again today.
> 
> ...



In time like the top of a bubble as we are now, anything crazy can happen
I give you a scenario: if the virus get worse and the economy gets decimated in the street, the feds will print more and more and shares is the way to go
The worse the situation, the higher the market...


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It doesn't add up. I feel I am missing something.



In the absence of any other explanation my thinking is central bank intervention.


----------



## flurbius (14 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I thought it wasn't in the interest of a virus to wipe out the host. A _virus can_ only multiply in a cell, so it's not in its interest to kill off all people. I remember but can't source an article about the inverse relationship between severity of the outbreak and its longevity.




The relationship between a virus and its host evolves over time, eg in some cases a virus will jump to a new host - say from bats to humans, when it first does this it is at its most deadly, as the pair evolve the virus becomes less deadly, eventually having very little effect on the host.  In some cases after a long enough time the two can become symbiotic, unable to exist without the other.

the bats that are the usual hosts of covid19 have no symptons at all.


----------



## qldfrog (14 February 2020)

https://www.newsyworld.com/youve-got-to-keep-buying-asx-inches-higher-despite-virus-uncertainty/
Basically, even if it is a catastrophic event, as long as the feds are printing, follow the lemmings


----------



## qldfrog (15 February 2020)

From time to time, it is good to scale things into perspective.
We now have better knowledge and at last a mortality rate
From my readings and i am happy to be proven otherwise, the mortality rate is around 2%,
If the virus can not be restricted to China, based on its ro it is expected to contaminate between 30 and 60 % of the world population
So for us in Australia, that would mean 26m x0.3x0.02 or 156,000 deaths
In perspective, the common flu kills below 1200 person in Australia in its worst year
And we record around 160k death in Australia per year
That virus would double the number.
These are available data taken conservatively, now you understand why the gov responses have been relatively strong
Note
To be more rigorous, some of the virus deads would have died otherwise anyway elderly etc  so maybe just an increase of 100000 deaths a year...
Disclaimer:
I do own invocare and another company in that business domain


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 February 2020)

Another way to look at it is that as a cause of death it’s minor compared to total deaths but it’s already bigger than any plane crash or industrial accident.


----------



## Knobby22 (15 February 2020)

We know it's about 2% once you show symptoms but we really have no idea what percentage  of people develop symptoms after catching it.

The ship off Japan is going to be very helpful. Unfortunately at present they can only test a small number of people per day.


----------



## qldfrog (16 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another way to look at it is that as a cause of death it’s minor compared to total deaths but it’s already bigger than any plane crash or industrial accident.



Not at 156,000 in Australia alone


----------



## qldfrog (16 February 2020)

And vaccine availability not before 18 months at the earliest


----------



## qldfrog (16 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> We know it's about 2% once you show symptoms but we really have no idea what percentage  of people develop symptoms after catching it.
> 
> The ship off Japan is going to be very helpful. Unfortunately at present they can only test a small number of people per day.



Yes/no..i see your point but
You show symptom, you get tested and recorded but then if positive, your immediate family contacts get tested too, at least in parts of China and definitely outside China so you can be symptom less but recorded
The 2% is not really only for sick people
In any case, the death toll could realistically be well over cancer heart disease etc
It would become, hopefully for a one time only, the main death reason in the world..and this is not scenario "catastrophe"


----------



## joeno (16 February 2020)

behaviour of western countries (USA) is honestly shameless. Forget the whole donate or not donate. We all know western countries aren't donating a dime to this humanitarian crisis due to the fact that China is their "ethnic enemy".

But further to that instead of saying "ooh that's bad." The reaction is more like "haha! suckers! this is what you get for human rights. being bad blah blah" and bashing Chinese students wearing masks. When you try to debate, all of a sudden you're a Chinese government shill.

Next time there is a crisis like a bushfire or school shooting in the US / Australia I'm going to tell my Chinese friends rather than feeling bad they should just LAUGH OUT LOUD


----------



## Knobby22 (16 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Yes/no..i see your point but
> You show symptom, you get tested and recorded but then if positive, your immediate family contacts get tested too, at least in parts of China and definitely outside China so you can be symptom less but recorded
> The 2% is not really only for sick people
> In any case, the death toll could realistically be well over cancer heart disease etc
> It would become, hopefully for a one time only, the main death reason in the world..and this is not scenario "catastrophe"




According to ABC, 38 of 70 found with the virus had no symptons..... .as they slowly test everyone on the ship.

Since the only ones tested previously had symptoms I'm thinking that roughly 80% who catch it will not be effected.

Also we have better treatment systems.

So instead of 1 in 50 dying, I'm thinking maybe one in 500. 

Still a hell of a lot, and will cause huge disruption.


----------



## sptrawler (16 February 2020)

If it is contained, which it probably will be, the virus will die out as SARS did. 
It has to have an unhealthy host to breed up in, by reducing the movement of people the hosts decline and immunity in the healthy population overcomes it. Well that is my understanding.


----------



## frugal.rock (16 February 2020)

My thinking is, based off the deaths reported, I believe the spike was 2 or 3 days ago. 
The daily figure is dropping. Which is good.
China has done a great job containing the spread. 
Any other country and I am quite sure the containment wouldn't have been so stringent.
My thoughts are most restrictions will be lifted around 2 to 3 weeks from now. 
The figures from the next few days will be figures decisions are made from IMO.
The economy hasn't been priority,  however, every day that goes by, is putting pressure on governments.
No doubt, there will be spot outbreaks, and smaller geographic areas will be 'shut down'. 
Whilst not out of the woods yet, the progress is happening.

F.Rock


----------



## qldfrog (17 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> According to ABC, 38 of 70 found with the virus had no symptons..... .as they slowly test everyone on the ship.
> 
> Since the only ones tested previously had symptoms I'm thinking that roughly 80% who catch it will not be effected.
> 
> ...



I did not know the number you quoted ..good news..but as you said, even 1 out of 500 would still be high
And we have not yet realised economically the losses already incurred here in oz
Our miners SP and GDP figures are not yet affected, lag plus wishful? thinking?


----------



## Knobby22 (17 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I did not know the number you quoted ..good news..but as you said, even 1 out of 500 would still be high
> And we have not yet realised economically the losses already incurred here in oz
> Our miners SP and GDP figures are not yet affected, lag plus wishful? thinking?




Yes, that is bad news, not good news. It will likely be spread by people with little or no symptoms.

In the Age today, a great interview by Elizabeth Knight with Andrew Cuthbertson of CSL.
Also on AM today, Professor Suboro was interviewed by the ABC. 

They are both indicating this virus is likely to be very contagious and I get the impression they have little hope of containment. Worth listening/reading for yourself if interested. 

Back to work.


----------



## qldfrog (17 February 2020)

And let's not. Forget these are the CCP figures so to take with a grain of salt


----------



## qldfrog (17 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, that is bad news, not good news. It will likely be spread by people with little or no symptoms.
> 
> In the Age today, a great interview by Elizabeth Knight with Andrew Cuthbertson of CSL.
> Also on AM today, Professor Suboro was interviewed by the ABC.
> ...



yes was going to post the link, interesting interview I agree with your feeling about containment,  we will just have to hope these measures slow down the spread and wait for the vaccine.
Not a good time for the elderly, big wealth transfer ahead :-(


----------



## basilio (19 February 2020)

The struggles China is having with industrial production becasue of the spreading virus is having a knock on effect globally.

* Apple is the best bellwether for the coronavirus fallout *
Larry Elliott
Outbreak is supply and demand shock for tech giant and markets must wake up to the global risks

There are plenty of signs of the strains China’s economy is coming under as a result of the coronavirus. The sharp fall in German business confidence is one because Europe’s biggest economy suffers when demand for its exports falls. The decision by Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong’s flag carrier airline, to cancel 40% of its flights in February and March is another.

But the best bellwether of what has been happening in China is Apple, which has warned that it is on course to miss its revenue forecasts in the first three months of 2020. China is a big market for Apple – accounting for about one-sixth of its global revenues – and is the source of most of its products. The coronavirus represents a demand and a supply shock to the company.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-best-bellwether-for-the-coronavirus-fallout


----------



## Dona Ferentes (19 February 2020)

“In considering adjustment to our guidance for FY20 we have prudently taken into account the potential impact of COVID-19 on manufacturing and export trade, along with the continued growth of the group during 1H20, the power of the CargoWise platform, drivers of organic growth, annual customer attrition rate of less than 1 per cent and continued relentless investment in innovation and expansion across our global business," founder and chief executive Richard White, of WiseTech WTC, said in a statement.

Down 20% on reduced guidance


----------



## Dona Ferentes (19 February 2020)

Cancellations for cruise ships in Asia; but some local upside as they're redeployed. Sthn hemisphere season extended.

https://www.traveller.com.au/cruise...cancelled-cruises-and-redeployed-ships-h1lwn1



> With the coronavirus outbreak showing little sign of slowing, cruise lines are abandoning Asia and sending their ships to different parts of the world, including several large ships heading to Australian waters. Some have even cancelled all trips in the region until the end of the year..


----------



## qldfrog (19 February 2020)

interesting this is the current front page of Al Jazeera:


now compare this with the national broadcaster of one of the most dependent economy:


unreal.. and ASX reaching new height..
https://www.aljazeera.com/programme...ak-effect-oil-gas-market-200215131949394.html


----------



## qldfrog (19 February 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...n/news-story/8f283b2c07461737574795553d9ed72f


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 February 2020)

I can't believe the insouciance expressed in the market reaction to this virus. Every indicator seems to assume a stimulus, a lost month or so and then business as usual. And no flow on disruption. But it ain't going to be like that.







> Firms in China's sprawling services sector, from restaurants and hotels to shops, cinemas and travel agents, have borne the brunt of the outbreak, besides small manufacturers that were just barely profitable, economists said. "The employment situation is OK in the first quarter, but if the virus is not contained by end-March, then from the second quarter, we'll see a big round of layoffs," said Dan Wang, an analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
> 
> Job losses could run as high as 4.5 million, she forecast. Private firms account for 80 per cent of urban employment.


----------



## sptrawler (20 February 2020)

I think a lot of money, is running back to Australian based income companies and away from those that rely on supply or demand from Asia.
Just my guess.
By the way, nice word, insouciance .


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 February 2020)

Analysis by* ch-aviation *showed that as of last week, 1215 aircraft operated by airlines from China, Hong Kong and Macau were grounded, or 29 per cent of the total fleet. This included a third of China Eastern’s fleet, or 196 aircraft; the 173 aeroplanes operated by China Southern; the 119 aircraft belonging to Air China and the 100 jets at Hainan Airlines, which represents 44 per cent of its fleet. More than 100 aeroplanes were parked at Beijing Capital Airport, 79 at Guangzhou Baiyun International and 60 at Hangzhou International.


----------



## qldfrog (21 February 2020)

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6133998228001
Way for Chinese residents to bypass the travel ban...not really surprising


----------



## qldfrog (21 February 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ivers-$250-million-hit-to-wa-tourism/11981048
WA tourism cost already estimated at $250m
So $1b overall plus students plus supplies issues coming in 
Except of the usd/aud, the market is still aiming for the sky


----------



## fergee (21 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ivers-$250-million-hit-to-wa-tourism/11981048
> WA tourism cost already estimated at $250m
> So $1b overall plus students plus supplies issues coming in
> Except of the usd/aud, the market is still aiming for the sky



The USD bull run is still in play. It will only get stronger before it starts a big slide down again. I would not be surprised to see it hit 62 or even below that, great for Aussie exporters, AUD POG and tourism once Covid-19 is under control.


----------



## IFocus (21 February 2020)

*It Gets Surprisingly Ugly: US Freight Shipments Plunge 9.4%, Steepest since 2009*
*by Wolf Richter • Feb 19, 2020 *
*But the coronavirus impact has not been felt yet; that will come later.*

Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 9.4% in January 2020 compared to the already weak January a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 14th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest since October 2009, during the Financial Crisis:



*https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/19/i...ght-shipments-plunge-9-4-steepest-since-2009/*

The market isn't reflecting this at all so assume all priced in.


----------



## fergee (21 February 2020)

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-5...news/world&link_location=live-reporting-story

"Covid-19 Costs airlines US$29 billion"


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 February 2020)

Airlines, freight, tourism, universities.....

There would seem to be a major disconnect between the financial markets versus the real economy at present.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 February 2020)

At about the 18 minute mark Peter Hartcher gives some interesting observations of how China treats Australia vs how they treat the rest of the world.

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/partyroom/thats-a-really-good-question!/11983380


----------



## basilio (22 February 2020)

Update on the effect of the CoronaVirus on Australia in particular product shortages 

*From batteries to shutters: Australian firms eye potential coronavirus shortages*

Hospitality and travel have already been hard hit, while there are concerns of looming shortages of products such as iPhones and batteries

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ian-firms-eye-potential-coronavirus-shortages


----------



## basilio (22 February 2020)

This is spreading across the globe.  If it takes off in poorer countries  which don't have the medical/financial capacity to control it, then the impact on economies, financial institutions, international stability will be catastrophic. 

I don't think this is the time to be long in the markets..

* Coronavirus: window of containment 'narrowing' after Iran deaths, WHO warns *
Virus is spreading in Middle East, with confirmed cases in Lebanon and Israel

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ainment-narrowing-after-iran-deaths-who-warns


----------



## fergee (22 February 2020)

I originally post this in end of the china bull2 but thought it might be more appropriate to post it here:

Just a thought I have had for while now is what happens when Chinese nationals who own investment properties in NZ, Aus and Canada start to have financial troubles back home? If they start to get margin calls or start to run out of working capital due to a big slow down will they start to liquidate overseas investments to cover shortfalls back home? I have had this thesis for a while now but this Covid-19 could be the trigger, it may spill over and effect our property markets through an increase in selling pressure...Just a thought I would be interested to hear what other people think about this.


----------



## basilio (22 February 2020)

fergee said:


> I originally post this in end of the china bull2 but thought it might be more appropriate to post it here:
> 
> Just a thought I have had for while now is what happens when Chinese nationals who own investment properties in NZ, Aus and Canada start to have financial troubles back home? If they start to get margin calls or start to run out of working capital due to a big slow down will they start to liquidate overseas investments to cover shortfalls back home? I have had this thesis for a while now but this Covid-19 could be the trigger, it may spill over and effect our property markets through an increase in selling pressure...Just a thought I would be interested to hear what other people think about this.




Very, very good point... Yep the Chinese are very big in the property market in Australia/NZ.  At the very least we could see
1) A  sharp  drop in new apartment sales
2) A rise in people walking away from deposits on apartments
Both of these situations would be serious xhit.  If there is pressure to actually sell current assets....


----------



## frugal.rock (22 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Very, very good point... Yep the Chinese are very big in the property market in Australia/NZ.  At the very least we could see
> 1) A  sharp  drop in new apartment sales
> 2) A rise in people walking away from deposits on apartments
> Both of these situations would be serious xhit.  If there is pressure to actually sell current assets....



We saw this around 2 years ago..., property in general is only just starting out of the doldrums, location dependant.
I know a developer of a block of units in Parramatta City, Sydney NSW, that endedy up having troubles selling, even the Chinese had stopped buying by then. 
That was 18 months ago.
So, on that basis, sharp drops? Not sure, but any developments finishing around now and near future may/will have a slow sell period, no doubt with some discounting occurring. 

F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (22 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> We saw this around 2 years ago..., property in general is only just starting out of the doldrums, location dependant.
> I know a developer of a block of units in Parramatta City, Sydney NSW, that endedy up having troubles selling, even the Chinese had stopped buying by then.
> That was 18 months ago.
> So, on that basis, sharp drops? Not sure, but any developments finishing around now and near future may/will have a slow sell period, no doubt with some discounting occurring.
> ...



Probably in the wrong thread, but on the same subject, houses in W.A that have sat on the market for 4 years are starting to move.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Update on the effect of the CoronaVirus on Australia in particular product shortages




An observation is that shortages, of anything, tend to be downplayed until there's no possibility to downplay them any longer.

The theory being that acknowledging the possibility of a shortage causes hoarding which then guarantees an actual shortage of product for sale eventuates. 

Only exceptions are things which can't be hoarded at the consumer level - eg utilities or the use of services such as public transport.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 February 2020)

I wonder if the world is running out of Tommy sauce and other tomato based products?
Bought some McDonald's yesterday and the ketchup packets are different now as to 3 or 4 months ago.
They don't have any labelling anymore apart from the obvious.
No Heinz info, no country of origin.
Previously had normal product info on the back, now blank, no made in China/Heinz?
Might be nothing in it, a normal package change, however the timing seems odd? Coincidence?
A little ketchup packet could be a big indicator....?
Where's Hamburglar or Ronald when you need them? Scaring kids again no doubt...

F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (23 February 2020)

Another thought is on gold....
Once the 'world' is back to normality, production will be back in full swing.
I can envisage an increase in the requirement of capital, the result being a potential pull out of gold to fund things. 
The press likes to scaremonger about the virus, gives them something to bang on about and fill in their time slots...
Just my thoughts.

F.Rock


----------



## basilio (23 February 2020)

What life is like in a *region of 60 million *under lockdown.
Makes one wonder how we would cope with this situation. As to the economic effects of such a situation...
This is not a media beat up and suggesting or pretending it is isn't  useful.

*Coronavirus COVID-19's Wuhan lockdown, a month on*

Almost 60 million people have been placed under an unprecedented lockdown in China's Hubei province since the novel coronavirus broke through its capital city, Wuhan. A month on, here's a look at what life in the usually bustling transport hub has been like*.*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...hubei-china-lockdown-month-long-look/11983818


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Update on the effect of the CoronaVirus on Australia in particular product shortages
> 
> *From batteries to shutters: Australian firms eye potential coronavirus shortages*



which post was it that someone was talking about *hoarding*?

Anyhow, the random walk down high street today didn't reveal any obvious shortages. The supply lines still seem to be filling the shelves. But maybe it would be sensible to "go long" on a few consumables, for those items with a high _Made in China_ component. Might even skirmish Bunnings.

For food and basics, this country is providentially well set up. Import substitution may see some items get a bit more expensive, though.


----------



## qldfrog (23 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> which post was it that someone was talking about *hoarding*?
> 
> Anyhow, the random walk down high street today didn't reveal any obvious shortages. The supply lines still seem to be filling the shelves. But maybe it would be sensible to "go long" on a few consumables, for those items with a high _Made in China_ component. Might even skirmish Bunnings.
> 
> For food and basics, this country is providentially well set up. Import substitution may see some items get a bit more expensive, though.



I needed a new cheap toilet suite, i hurried up getting it last week, i could choose, all are made in china, it will not take long for stocks to go down, and you slowly have to buy more and more expensive.not easy to substitute.
But i would only be worried if i was in the process of building, months by months, we should see specific shortages appears and it is always a $ cost when you can least afford it


----------



## basilio (23 February 2020)

If the virus gets into residential care homes there will be some serious economic effects. I imagine it would have devastating effect on the elderly and frail and the loss of clientele would  cause severe problems for the for profit owners.

Keep that in mind for your health portfolios.
--------------------------------------------
I also wonder how our health services would cope with hundreds or thousands of additional severe cases of infectious diseases ?  We have already seen the deaths of people in Chinas health system. How will our system stand up to infectious threats?

I also wonder if the powers -that-be are ramping up with all possible speed masks and infection control apparatus.  Realistically every factory in the world,  ( mostly China...)  will be churning this stuff out.  But I wonder if they can handle a world wide demand of the order that could be expected.


----------



## sptrawler (23 February 2020)

It might not be climate change that gets us after all.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 February 2020)

basilio said:


> If the virus gets into residential care homes there will be some serious economic effects. I imagine it would have devastating effect on the elderly and frail and the loss of clientele would  cause severe problems for the for profit owners




I have a family member who's a permanent resident of such a facility.

Last year they were put "on lockdown" and my first thought upon hearing the term "lockdown" had visions of police crouched behind cars with guns pointed whilst a helicopter hovered overhead and so on. In my mind the term "lockdown" was associated with terrorists, someone roaming around with a gun, escaped prisoners or whatever not with a medical issue.

Turns out it's a standard procedure if a resident gets the flu. Thing is, that's because they know full well that most of the residents will get it so they're aiming to not spread it to the wider community.

This was before this current virus concern but it illustrates the problem very clearly.


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2020)

One economic implication which comes to mind is that the Diamond Princess is now a ship that most people associate with a disaster, albeit a virus outbreak not the ship sinking.

I'd expect that regardless of any rational logic that will deter at least some people from traveling on it in the future. It'll probably deter some people from going on any cruise actually.


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2020)

I see that flights are being sold from Australia to the USA for under $700.

I don't know if that has anything to do with the virus but it's seriously cheap so I'm assuming it's a case of airlines having empty seats they need to fill and trying to generate demand with lower prices.


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## SirRumpole (24 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I have a family member who's a permanent resident of such a facility.
> 
> Last year they were put "on lockdown" and my first thought upon hearing the term "lockdown" had visions of police crouched behind cars with guns pointed whilst a helicopter hovered overhead and so on. In my mind the term "lockdown" was associated with terrorists, someone roaming around with a gun, escaped prisoners or whatever not with a medical issue.
> 
> ...




One would think that all residents and staff would get flu shots. I suppose there would be people whose age or health wouldn't allow a shot so management of such cases would be difficult. They should have masked staff greeting visitors at the door and checking for coughs and sneezes.


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## moXJO (24 February 2020)

One of my guys in China said they are going back to work (manufacturing) that was last week. Anyone importing goods be aware that the virus can last a long time on items.


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## Knobby22 (24 February 2020)

The news was all bad this weekend so I tried to sell some shares at open.
Seems everyone is like minded, had to reduce my price.
Am expecting a very bad day in the USA tomorrow.


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## moXJO (24 February 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The news was all bad this weekend so I tried to sell some shares at open.
> Seems everyone is like minded, had to reduce my price.
> Am expecting a very bad day in the USA tomorrow.



Just remember when the news gets at it's worst to buy in on the bargains again. Flu goes through it's cycle. It ain't a permanent thing.


----------



## qldfrog (24 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Just remember when the news gets at it's worst to buy in on the bargains again. Flu goes through it's cycle. It ain't a permanent thing.



But that is only after it goes down...
Asx was at its highest last week with this country imho much more exposed than even the Chinese market


----------



## moXJO (24 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But that is only after it goes down...
> Asx was at its highest last week with this country imho much more exposed than even the Chinese market



We won't see the effects here for a bit. But thinking it will be bottleneck then boom to catch up. That's if everyone doesn't go broke in the meantime.

Talking to one of my solar guys and he said that nothing is getting through at the moment. Anyone wanting solar get it done now as it's looking like a 6 month bottleneck. Ships are being delayed. Definitely a mess.

Like I said the economic ramifications will be felt harder then the virus imo.


----------



## fergee (24 February 2020)

Chris Martensen from Peak prosperity has so far been the most accurate analyst on Covid1-19 I have come across, I have been following his analysis for a few weeks now and I recommend everyone to watch it.


----------



## macca (24 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> One would think that all residents and staff would get flu shots. I suppose there would be people whose age or health wouldn't allow a shot so management of such cases would be difficult. They should have masked staff greeting visitors at the door and checking for coughs and sneezes.




Mostly they do get shots but the flu vaccine is not very successful (compared with polio etc) there are about 40 different strains of flu and they usually only vaccinate for 4 or 5.

Flu mutates so quickly that the flu one person suffers is different to the next victim.

As previously posted Vit D every day is the best and most universal deterrent that has been discovered so far.

Hopefully they can come up with a winner but they still can't cure a common cold so may not happen for a while.

Imagine the share price of the company that announces a cure for the common cold


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 February 2020)

> My last three reports have been dominated by the huge impact that the coronavirus will have on the Chinese and global economy. I have bombarded you with statistics highlighting the gigantic difference between the current crisis and the SARS crisis in 2003. I said I was astonished that so many mainstream economists were so dismissive of the potential shock to global economic activity.





> That is now changing, and changing quickly, as most of the world’s leading investment firms rush to downgrade their estimates of economic growth and their estimates of corporate earnings. In fact I know of one very large global financial institution that has downgraded its China annual GDP forecast 4 times in 3 weeks.
> I *have never seen that before.*
> During the week countless companies across the world issued statements about the impact of the coronavirus on their sales and their global supply chains, with Apple leading the way last Monday.



(_Jonathan Pain - The Pain Report)
_
... was talking to a doctor today, he came out with the usual, "it's just like the flu, we'll be back to normal soon " line, but I think  the flow-on supply line shock will impact economic numbers. But of course these don't show up for a while.

Mr Pain goes on to say:







> The problem is that this economic crisis is so very different to anything we have seen before, because the economic, financial and political context is completely different....
> 
> Valuations today in U.S equity markets are very expensive with the price/sales ratio on the S&P 500 actually surpassing the levels we saw in March 2000.
> 
> Hard to believe, but true, and something I have mentioned several times in the past few months.





> And then we could talk about global debt levels.
> 
> And I hear you say, _don’t worry, J Powell’s got this_!! Incidentally [] the same thing [was said] in 2007, only that time you said, _Bernanke’s got this._
> 
> At the risk of repetition, don’t laugh, the current Chinese economic crisis will serve to amplify the existing vulnerabilities in the global economy, at a time when equity valuations are very stretched...



- holding plenty of cash, but not yet looking for a home


----------



## qldfrog (24 February 2020)

fergee said:


> Chris Martensen from Peak prosperity has so far been the most accurate analyst on Covid1-19 I have come across, I have been following his analysis for a few weeks now and I recommend everyone to watch it.




I like his discussing the fact that we do not need to be binary: it is not remaining blissfully ignorant or panicking as a maniac, you can just be aware and prepared.economically, socially and healthwise


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 February 2020)

fergee said:


> Chris Martensen from Peak prosperity has so far been the most accurate analyst on Covid1-19 I have come across, I have been following his analysis for a few weeks now and I recommend everyone to watch it.




Wow.... 26 minutes in. Be afraid .

Thanks for posting.


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## banco (24 February 2020)

I hope the next person who says: "It's just like the flu and don't you know the flu kills X number of people every year" gets punched in the face. It's such an inane line.


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## Dona Ferentes (24 February 2020)

Screenshot from 26 minutes. It ain't the 'flu. Context is everything; listen to the talk


----------



## sptrawler (24 February 2020)

I found it interesting that there is a very low infection rate in children, but a very high infection rate in the elderly, usually they go hand in hand the old with low immunity and the young with no immunity.
Anyone for frogs conspiracy theory.


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## banco (24 February 2020)

From what I've read children do get infected at same rate but it generally affects them a lot less than adults. It was same with SARs apparently.


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

Iran has blown up.  The virus is clearly out of control

_In the Middle East, concerns are quickly mounting that Iran is now a major hub of the coronavirus, and that the virus may have taken hold in pilgrimage roots before its existence was realised.


*Authorities said 50 people have died in the Shia shrine city of Qom this month alone, *sharply up from the 12 deaths reported among 47 cases nationwide. Deaths per reported infections were sharply higher in Iran compared to other countries, and that data reflected concerns that the extent of the virus had been significantly under-reported. Those fears now appear to have been realised, and officials are now rushing to contain a cluster - the spread of which would have serious implications for regional health._

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ections-death-toll-outbreak-xi-jinping-update_

_
That analysis from Chris Martensen is detailed and very disturbing.   It feels a bit like_  On the beach._


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

Stock markets in Europe taking a beating. 

*Stock markets slump as coronavirus spreads in Europe – business live*
Rolling coverage of business, economics and markets amid investor concerns over extent of outbreak beyond China

FTSE 100 loses 3.3% by mid-morning
Italian stocks fall by 4.3% as country suffers outbreak 

Gold hits seven-year high and bonds gain as investors seek havens
Easyjet, Tui and British Airways owner among the biggest losers
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-sterling-ftse-italy-korea-gold-business-live


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

Quick question.

How would people who are quarantined  for weeks on end and unable to go to work financially survive ?  The realty is that most people do live from pay  to pay. There was a dreadful example of a Chinese family who became homeless and left their child at an orphanage in the extended quarantine in Hubei.

Chris Martensen made this point and said governments need to be prepared to basically keep people solvent in this crisis. It is in no ones interest to see widespread instant homelessness and incapacity to buy food, pay bills.


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## macca (24 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Quick question.
> 
> How would people who are quarantined  for weeks on end and unable to go to work financially survive ?  The realty is that most people do live from pay  to pay. There was a dreadful example of a Chinese family who became homeless and left their child at an orphanage in the extended quarantine in Hubei.
> 
> Chris Martensen made this point and said governments need to be prepared to basically keep people solvent in this crisis. It is in no ones interest to see widespread instant homelessness and incapacity to buy food, pay bills.




Given that so many people live life to the fullest, with the credit cards usually maxed out, it is going to put enormous pressure on the employers to continue paying wages even when the employee is in quarantine.

This then puts pressure on all businesses but in particular SME, who will have no hope of paying wages without cashflow.

The gigantic bubble may well be about to burst, the GFC was just a blip, this could be the "black swan" that people spoke about when the gold standard was scrapped


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2020)

macca said:


> this could be the "black swan" that people spoke about when the gold standard was scrapped




I've been thinking that this definitely has the potential to be comparable to the global financial crisis (2008) or the Arab oil embargo (1973-74).

If you look back at economic statistics at the national or entire industry level, or if you look at things like share prices, then it's not hard to find something that 12 years later still hasn't recovered from the GFC and for that matter there are things which still haven't recovered from the oil crisis 46 years ago. If they haven't recovered by now, well it's a fair bet that they never will.

I can see this ending up as as similar event. Someone looking back at economic history 20 years from now will clearly see an inflection point in various things from which there was never a return to what was business as usual beforehand. Just as happened with the oil crisis and GFC - even after they were resolved many effects were permanent.

As an example of that, I expect that the boom in Chinese manufacturing is now well and truly dead and that's permanent. Just about every company with a high (or even total) reliance on China is going to be seeing that they need diversity of supply sources and that's going to reshape the global economy over the coming years.


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

Its an interesting thesis Smurf but i wonder if countries have the basic industrial infrastructure to go back to pre China days ?  I don't know if one can just come up with new factories without the component parts,  employee skills and all the elements that enable a  rounded manufacturing industry to  work.

On the other hand perhaps the new manufacturing modes might look quite different from historical examples.   Much more automation. Perhaps a lot less production.

One thing though. As I see it the whole social infrastructure is more precarious than at any time in the last 40 years. Many people require two incomes to just survive . The loss of one wage will be sufficient to destroy the viability of the relationship/home/everything. That goes back to my comments about how we keep the country solvent if there is extended quarantine and/or many businesses can't operate. This won't be creative destruction. It will be economic armageddon. 

Watch out for bottom feeders snapping up desperate house sales and desperate asset sales

*I really hope this question is being considered now by the government before the merde hits the fan. *


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## qldfrog (24 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Anyone for frogs conspiracy theory.



Not conspiracy, just escape from the  single and only Chinese lab..in Wuhan..handling such dangerous crap
https://www.biorxiv.org › co...PDF Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 ...
So an HIV SARS merged creation..
But sure blame snakes, then bats, then pangolin..... what's next?
Look at the article then you can not just discard this as conspiracy because the ABC or WHO tell you so....
They know better i am sure...
What they know is that it would be very counter productive to put the blame on the chinese government..i agree so keep the masses in the dark
From Wikileaks control to CO2 causing global warming and so called fake news:
the west has never been subjected to so much propaganda in the past 100y
I do not think the virus was released purposely, as to why it was extracted/designed?
Could be just playing with fire, science or work on bio weapon..i do not know nor pretend to know, and should we care?


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

I checked out Chris Martensen Twiter feed and website
He is most definitely across the Corona virus. There are a number of articles which  indicates far broader infections than seem to be currently acknowledged.

Also worth remembering that most cities don't have more than a weeks supply of food in the system. They all rely on
1) a measured daily demand ie not sudden panic buys
2) continual replenishment of product
https://twitter.com/chrismartenson?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-...-world/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

* Why Covid-19 Demands Our Full Attention *
*This is an unprecedented moment for our hyper-connected planet
by Chris Martenson*
_Friday, February 14, 2020, 2:44 PM

Pulled it all together a couple of weeks ago..
https://www.peakprosperity.com/why-covid-19-demands-our-full-attention/_


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

This is ominous. It was a different situation but this feels like the time I started watching the attack on the twin Towers as it unfolded
So literally over a few hours one saw the hits on the towers, the attack on the Pentagon, the other plane that was hijacked , the collapse of the towers.

This is not as quick but the rapidly escalating infection and death rates across multiple sites is unnerving. Also having checked out Chris site there seems far more evidence of  widespread infections than we might realise at first glance.

*Please read the story above .  *

I think the markets are in for another beating tomorrow.


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## sptrawler (24 February 2020)

basilio said:


> This is ominous. It was a different situation but this feels like the time I started watching the attack on the twin Towers as it unfolded
> So literally over a few hours one saw the hits on the towers, the attack on the Pentagon, the other plane that was hijacked , the collapse of the towers.
> 
> This is not as quick but the rapidly escalating infection and death rates across multiple sites is unnerving. Also having checked out Chris site there seems far more evidence of  widespread infections than we might realise at first glance.
> ...



I think it has the potential, to put global warming on the back page for a while.


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## basilio (24 February 2020)

From the  Chris Martenson Friday 14th article comments section
Mon, Feb 17, 2020 - 6:17pm

#154


*Sparky1*
Send PM
Status Member (Offline)
*Pandemic waves: "seeding" Covid-2019 via travelers, military; then self-sustaining community transmissions*
The CDC reported the first human-to-human (H2H) Covid-2019 transmission in the US on Jan. 30th. I wonder how many of the 15 confirmed US cases to date are from H2H transmission vs. “imported” from travelers passing through China or other Asian countries. Dr. Gabriel Leung’s research projected the global infection rate would increase exponentially as the virus became self-spreading after initially being “seeded” in countries by Covid-2019 imported from travelers from China.

We should expect the numbers of “seed” Covid-2019 cases to increase with the influx of repatriated US citizens from other countries and cruise ships, as well as from the military given that they’ve quarantined their at-risk personnel and their families/close contacts effective Feb. 2nd. These “seed” cases from travelers might be considered the first wave of infections. I think that first wave of “seed” infections is well underway, but is being minimized by the “authorities”.

A second, much larger wave is likely to be among close contacts with those “seed” travelers. I think that second wave has already begun and the public is being kept in the dark for the most part about these cases. Thereafter, I think a third wave of infections will come from incidental contacts among the general public. This wave will result in massive numbers of cases as the virus spreads throughout small to large geographic regions.

For approximately 12 weeks from the estimated start date of the first Covid-2019 case (mid-Nov. 2019 – Feb. 1, 2020) there was no attempt to curtail exposure of thousands of military personnel, contractors, and their families from the coronavirus abroad. As of Feb. 2, those troops and close contacts that were potentially exposed in Covid-2019 hotspots were to be quarantined for 14 days here in the US and abroad. Regardless of whether 14 days is a sufficient time for quarantine, these asymptomatic and/or test negative military personnel and their contacts would be scheduled for release this week or soon after.

I believe there’s an information blackout concerning military Covid-2019 cases that would have already started presenting by now. This blackout would be imposed so as not to alert enemies of potential US military vulnerability, as well as to not alarm the public. Note that 14 military bases (that we know of) and other facilities are being used to quarantine repatriated US citizens.

So along with universities, we might add military bases and communities in which they are located to the growing list of potential Covid-2019 hotspots. We should be on the lookout for reports from military insiders such as family members and health care workers in the days and weeks ahead as this virus spreads.


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## Smurf1976 (25 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Its an interesting thesis Smurf but i wonder if countries have the basic industrial infrastructure to go back to pre China days ?



It would have to be rebuilt and would come with a period of disruption.

Without wanting to derail the thread to an oil one, I'll post this chart of oil production however to illustrate what I'm on about:




https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/World_Oil_Production.png

As a short explanation, from about 1958 onwards oil rapidly gained market share as fuel for industry, power generation, heating and so on primarily at the expense of coal which by the 1960's was on the way out. That plus rising use of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel drove the huge increase in oil consumption.

Now look what happened after 1973. There was a brief resurgence but ultimately the previous trend never returned and almost certainly never will now. By the end of the 70's the oil consumption boom had given way to a boom in anything but oil - pick up any publication relating to energy from that era and it's a given that it'll be all about "the oil problem" and focused on anything and everything that produces heat or keeps the lights on so long as it's not oil. Meanwhile sales of smaller cars were booming and those without suitable models were struggling big time.

For a more recent example, just start looking at long term charts of random ASX listed companies using whatever your normal charting software is. Look at charts going back 20+ years. Just quickly look at them, company after company, say a couple of hundred with a few seconds looking at each.

You'll find no shortage of companies that are still not even remotely close to recovering their pre-GFC highs more than a decade after the event. Indeed if your charts go back far enough then you'll be able to find stocks which still haven't recovered from the 1987 crash either.

With all those examples have in common is that a single event produced a permanent change such that the previous trend never returned.

Once countries like Japan and France, or closer to home WA, saw the danger in having their electricity supply dependent on oil shipped from the Middle East they decided they'd better change that quickly and permanently so they did.

Likewise once the GFC occurred plenty of companies either went under themselves, survived but badly bruised, or survived as such but investors are far more wary of the underlying business and its inherent risks than they were previously and have valued the stock accordingly.

I'm seeing this virus in that context. Made in China is all of a sudden much like oil-fired electricity or low doc loans. All of a sudden it looks awfully risky to be relying on it as a major component of your own business with no plan B. There's no putting that genie back in the bottle once it's out.

So I'm foreseeing something akin to the response to the 1973 oil crisis. Nothing happened in the blink of an eye but ultimately oil stopped gaining market share and the focus shifted to alternatives.

Made in China won't disappear tomorrow but if someone's building a factory, well I expect they're going to be thinking long and hard about this risk now and contemplating where it ought to be located. End result is the growth of manufacturing in China will never return to what it previously was, the trend line will be permanently broken.

Just my thoughts on it all assuming it does get worse in terms of numbers of infected people etc. 

(PS: Off-topic note for those with an interest in oil itself. That chart is for crude oil only - it doesn't include natural gas liquids, natural bitumen etc hence won't add up to the same figure as some other statistics which do include these).


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It would have to be rebuilt and would come with a period of disruption.
> 
> Without wanting to derail the thread to an oil one, I'll post this chart of oil production however to illustrate what I'm on about:
> 
> ...



Like we said early in this thread, those companies waiting for their furniture, T.V's, Aliexpress and ebay stuff to arrive, will be running out of lies, the two month wait will already be up and a lot of customers will be asking for their money back.
Travel agents will start and have trouble selling a trip to anywhere, I read that Israel has put a two week quarantine on people arriving from Australia, so how many people are going to risk travelling, when they could end up in a holding pen somewhere in the World.
Interesting times.


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## PZ99 (25 February 2020)

Sea of red everywhere on the markets.

Might be better to build that wall after all


----------



## fergee (25 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It would have to be rebuilt and would come with a period of disruption.
> 
> Without wanting to derail the thread to an oil one, I'll post this chart of oil production however to illustrate what I'm on about:
> 
> ...



YES. I was thinking along a similar line but I like the way you said it @Smurf1976


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## Smurf1976 (25 February 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Sea of red everywhere on the markets



US down over 3% - not the end of the world but a significant drop in a single trading session which isn't finished yet.

There's more to come is my thinking here......


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## SirRumpole (25 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Quick question.
> 
> How would people who are quarantined  for weeks on end and unable to go to work financially survive ?  The realty is that most people do live from pay  to pay. There was a dreadful example of a Chinese family who became homeless and left their child at an orphanage in the extended quarantine in Hubei.
> 
> Chris Martensen made this point and said governments need to be prepared to basically keep people solvent in this crisis. It is in no ones interest to see widespread instant homelessness and incapacity to buy food, pay bills.




I  guess that's what sick leave is for if people have it.

If a business refuses to pay up, then yes there should be some government assistance or regulation that businesses must pay, in line with the back pay issue.


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I  guess that's what sick leave is for if people have it.
> 
> If a business refuses to pay up, then yes there should be some government assistance or regulation that businesses must pay, in line with the back pay issue.



Ahhh the left ..... @SirRumpole, they refuse to pay because they will have no cashflow left
So if the government make them pay they get broke...
.a great win for the workers and the country indeed...


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

@Smurf1976 about the analogy with oil crisis, i think this is only valid if the virus stays confined to China, basically if everything get sorted next week and the damages are limited to what has been done so far.
You say


Smurf1976 said:


> Just my thoughts on it all assuming it does get worse in terms of numbers of infected people etc.



I would disagree as if it gets worse...as it seems  now, people will not care about getting their amart furnitures or solar installed/ebay delivery arriving
They will care about staying alive or having an hospital bed for their wife


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Sea of red everywhere on the markets.
> 
> Might be better to build that wall after all



These are the times when I think the wad of cash, lets me sleep at night, it isn't making anything but it isn't losing either.
That is as long as the Banks don't go belly up.


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## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> These are the times when I think the wad of cash, lets me sleep at night, it isn't making anything but it isn't losing either.
> That is as long as the Banks don't go belly up.



And if big enough, the wad of cash can be a nice pillow


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## moXJO (25 February 2020)

Probably a good idea to post up some links:

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about COVID-19 because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause. 

Related: Get live updates on new coronavirus

"Despite the morbidity and mortality with influenza, there's a certainty … of seasonal flu," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a White House press conference on Jan. 31. "I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations [will be]," Fauci said. "The issue now with [COVID-19] is that there's a lot of unknowns." 

Scientists are racing to find out more about COVID-19, and our understanding of the virus and the threat it poses may change as new information becomes available. Based on what we know so far, here's how it compares with the flu.

*Symptoms and severity*
Both seasonal flu viruses (which include influenza A and influenza B viruses) and COVID-19 are contagious viruses that cause respiratory illness. 

Typical flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, sometimes, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the CDC. Flu symptoms often come on suddenly. Most people who get the flu will recover in less than two weeks. But in some people, the flu causes complications, including pneumonia. So far this flu season, about 1% of people in the United States have developed symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized, which is similar to the rate last season, according to data from the CDC.

With COVID-19, doctors are still trying to understand the full picture of disease symptoms and severity. In a small study of about 100 people with the virus, published Jan. 30 in the journal The Lancet, the most common symptoms were fever, cough and shortness of breath. Only about 5% of patients in that study reported sore throat and runny nose, and only 1-2% reported diarrhea, nausea and vomiting. 

In a more recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 09 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical. "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure," the researchers wrote in the paper published in China CDC Weekly.

It's important to note that, because respiratory viruses cause similar symptoms, it can be difficult to distinguish different respiratory viruses based on symptoms alone, according to WHO.

*Death rate*
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data. 

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu. 

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times. 

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date. 
*Virus transmission*
The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.

*Risk of infection*
The CDC estimates that, on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick with the flu each season.

There are currently 29 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. Still, newly emerged viruses like this one are always of public health concern, according to the CDC. It's unclear how the situation with this virus in the U.S. will unfold, the agency said. Some people, such as health care workers, are at increased risk for exposure to COVID-19. But for the general American public, the immediate health risk from the virus is low at this time.

*Pandemics*

It's important to note that seasonal flu, which causes outbreaks every year, should not be confused with pandemic flu, or a global outbreak of a new flu virus that is very different from the strains that typically circulate. This happened in 2009 with the swine flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 151,000 and 575,000 people worldwide, according to the CDC. There is no flu pandemic happening currently.

The COVID-19 outbreak has not yet been declared a pandemic, as the majority of cases have occurred in China. But on Jan. 30, the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern." The declaration was primarily due to concern that the virus could spread to countries with weaker health systems.

*Prevention*
Unlike seasonal flu, for which there is a vaccine to protect against infection, there is no vaccine for COVID-19. But researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health are in the early stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine for COVID-19 within the next three months.

In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, which include both coronaviruses and flu viruses: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces


----------



## moXJO (25 February 2020)

I'm undecided as to how bad  COVID 19 will be. At the moment the scare campaign is worse imo. It's hard to get a gauge on overall. Doesn't mean you don't prep though and I think being informed is the best way.

But I think the financial ramifications may be worse than I first thought. Our economy is already burdened with large amounts of negatives. Everything comes from China and there was always a huge danger to that. Every business is stocking Chinese crap. Aussie manufacturing might see a boost. 
But this is one more nail in the coffin of business.
This is still in the early stages. So we get all the horror stories of the virus blowing through all these other countries. It will have a huge affect on fear. 

As morbid as it is, opportunity awaits in these kinds of disasters....


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Like we said early in this thread, those companies waiting for their furniture, T.V's, Aliexpress and ebay stuff to arrive, will be running out of lies, the two month wait will already be up and a lot of customers will be asking for their money back.
> Travel agents will start and have trouble selling a trip to anywhere, I read that Israel has put a two week quarantine on people arriving from Australia, so how many people are going to risk travelling, when they could end up in a holding pen somewhere in the World.
> Interesting times.



It looks as though it is already starting to kick in.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ail-as-businesses-face-serious-pinch/11996316
From the article:
_The coronavirus outbreak is starting to make normally unremarkable, everyday retail purchases more difficult, as factories remain shut in China.
_
*Key points:*

_Cracks in supply chains involving parts from China are widening_
_From guitars to bikes to hardware, retailers are feeling the pinch_
_Businesses say they're worried what will happen if the crisis continues_
_

Parts are being delayed or are simply not available for products and repairs that are usually taken for granted.

From guitar parts to bike accessories to hardware and tools, occasional gaps are beginning to appear on shelves.

And retailers are also concerned that stocks built up before the Chinese New Year will dwindle in coming weeks, and may even not be replaced_.


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

And the next cab off the rank, with supply problems.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ner-to-postpone-dividend-20200225-p5440b.html
From the article:
_Fashion retailer Mosaic Brands is facing a new challenge, with the coronavirus outbreak threatening to have a material impact on the ASX-listed retailer_.

_Shares fell 13 per cent to $1.56 on Tuesday after the company told investors it had postponed its declaration of an interim dividend until the full impact of the COVID-19 virus could be assessed_.

_The company –which owns fashion brands such as Noni B, Rivers, and Katies – said its supply chain has seen a "minor impact" for deliveries in February as production levels remained low due to thousands of closed factories.

"The group is now working with its suppliers to ensure minimal delays for winter product. Should delays prove to be material, sales during the early winter season, including the key Mother’s Day period, could be affected," Mosaic warned_.


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## Smurf1976 (25 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @Smurf1976 about the analogy with oil crisis, i think this is only valid if the virus stays confined to China, basically if everything get sorted next week and the damages are limited to what has been done so far.
> You say
> 
> I would disagree as if it gets worse...as it seems  now, people will not care about getting their amart furnitures or solar installed/ebay delivery arriving
> They will care about staying alive or having an hospital bed for their wife




The point I'm thinking of is the long term one.

Suppose that your scenario plays out (and I think there's at least some chance it will) then what will be the long term effect? If someone looks back at this in the year 2050 then what do they see?

Do they see a minor blip akin to a recession after which all previous trends resumed? In 2050 most things are "Made in China", most people routinely travel internationally and broad economic and social trends that were in place prior to 2020 resumed after the virus crisis had passed?

Or do they see a permanent inflection point on the chart for all sorts of things from cruise ship passenger numbers through to the growth of Chinese manufacturing? A point where the trend changed and never went back to how it was previously?

My comparison with the 1973-74 oil crisis is of the latter scenario. 46 years later and oil's still very much around but the previous growth trend never returned. Things were never the same after the crisis compared to before it and I do think that there's some chance of a similar situation playing out here. A situation where only in hindsight we'll realise that some things never returned to the previous trend - cruise ships would be an obvious one with that risk.


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## Smurf1976 (25 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> And the next cab off the rank, with supply problems.



Actions speak louder than words.

They say it's a minor problem but have postponed declaring a dividend.

That sounds like more than just a minor glitch.....


----------



## basilio (25 February 2020)

The updates on The Guardians website re the Corona virus continue to be disturbing.
Threat of widespread bankruptcy across Chines businesses, closing of schools in Hong Kong, massive drops in China industrial output to date, real concerns about the safety of athletes for the Olympics.

*Coronavirus live updates: fourth Diamond Princess passenger dies as Japan closes some schools*
Concerns mount that the spread of Covid-19 cannot be stopped as stock markets fall amid investor fears. Follow latest news

Coronavirus outbreak is pandemic ‘in all but name’, says expert
Stocks fall as virus fears hit global markets
Iran denies cover-up after reports of 50 deaths
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...na-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls


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## SirRumpole (25 February 2020)

I think the Corona virus crisis will eventually decline, and leave us with the thought "when is the next one coming". 

Our dependence on China is obvious, can we afford to be so reliant on them when they are the world's biggest incubation chamber for serious diseases ?

Some tough decisions ahead I reckon.


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The point I'm thinking of is the long term one.
> 
> Suppose that your scenario plays out (and I think there's at least some chance it will) then what will be the long term effect? If someone looks back at this in the year 2050 then what do they see?
> 
> ...



Cruise ship indeed.was not very keen before, now an absolute never


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

It could be the final nail in the coffin of globalisation.the West electorate is now waking up to what free circulation of people and goods means: a leveling to the lowest denominator with minimal but substantial improvement for the poorest countries and the decimation sp? Of the western working and middle class and that crisis could be the inflection point..


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## qldfrog (25 February 2020)

But first survival ...and it could get ugly as we do not have Chinese behaviour and iron grip


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

Another profit downgrade by Treasury Wines, due to corona virus and lack of demand in China.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200225/pdf/44ffgqjrg03ht3.pdf


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## Smurf1976 (26 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think the Corona virus crisis will eventually decline, and leave us with the thought "when is the next one coming".




With the GFC there was a lot of "when's the second one coming?" sort of thinking around for years later indeed it's really only in the past year or two such comments seem to have dried up, so that was a full decade.

At least some US based financial commentators have still occasionally mentioned SARS in recent times (last few years) as an historical event that could happen again in some form.

I mentioned the oil shocks of the 1970's - there were still people actively concerned at the prospect of a repeat well into the 1990's. 

So the thinking won't go away anytime soon is my expectation.


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## Smurf1976 (26 February 2020)

> Port calls by container carriers fell 30 per cent in February, from a year ago, according to Clarksons






> Oil shipment to China from the Middle East fell to 12 per cent of what it was a year ago on February 5




https://www.scmp.com/business/compa...es-face-troubled-waters-oil-tankers-container

It would seem that the impact is quite substantial if this is correct. 

A 30% drop in container volume is pretty significant but does raise a question as to how that impacts specific products. At a guess, most likely some product types will have gone to zero whilst others are unaffected, it's probably not a 30% drop across everything. 

To the extent that anything has gone to zero or close to it, well it's only a matter of time until we see that show up as product shortages here in Australia. What items is the big unknown.


----------



## ducati916 (26 February 2020)

Corporate debt in US BBB (Junk) sitting at $3.4T. Impacted cash flows will inhibit servicing and we will likely see a large chunk fall over.

Reports from China, a significant number of companies only have 2 mths working capital remaining. Without intervention, layoffs are coming.

The virus issue is not going to resolve tomorrow. Therefore another couple of months or so will create even further damage. The markets are still pricing this as if it will disappear tomorrow.

Real rates up to the US 10yr are now negative.

If the virus triggers a global recession and it looks pretty likely atm, there is nowhere really to go for the Central Banks and the recession could be a nasty one.

If a recession is triggered, Trump will likely lose the election and that is looking increasingly to Bernie Saunders. A 'Socialist' US President will make the virus issue look minor by comparison.

jog on
duc


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## satanoperca (26 February 2020)

The virus will keep on spreading/growing and the death rate will climb.

It cannot be contained or stopped. 

Over the coming months we will see the true mortality rate of this virus, I believe it will be higher than 3% as an average across the globe, some countries less, some more.

Once the govnuts release they cannot contain it and there is hope of a vaccine, the borders will be opened again and it will be back to business. 

Just another flu like virus.


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## MrChow (26 February 2020)

China deaths hit a 3 week low so may have already peaked at the source country 2 months in.

Keep in mind actual flu deaths are about 1m per year world wide so hundreds times more deadly.

If you look at the stock markets in 1918 and 1968 when millions of people died from similiar viruses it had very little effect.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Just another flu like virus.



Flu death rates about 0.1%.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2020)

The longer-term issues are [ ] complex. Will the shock to China derail what has been an unprecedented development process? What will happen to the China brand that was underpinning much of the country's regional and international expansion and integration?Will  the disruption to travel and supply chains fuel a multi-year deglobalisation?

The hope remains that the coronavirus will be contained quickly and that the cascading sudden economic stops can be reversed rapidly. Even before that happens for sure, the time will come to buy risk assets, focusing on market segments that have underperformed for a while.

But there simply isn't enough evidence at this stage to predict a timetable with any degree of confidence. After all, it is rare for a sudden stop to break out in some of the largest economies in the world. There is still much more unknown than known.

_Mohamed El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist_


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## SirRumpole (26 February 2020)

Tokyo Olympics in doubt.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ate-says-ioc-top-official-dick-pound/12001034


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

MrChow said:


> China deaths hit a 3 week low so may have already peaked at the source country 2 months in.
> 
> Keep in mind actual flu deaths are about 1m per year world wide so hundreds times more deadly.
> 
> If you look at the stock markets in 1918 and 1968 when millions of people died from similiar viruses it had very little effect.



really sorry but FFS could you please stop spreading this kind of **** info:
the number of death due to annual flu is around 61000(usually less but that is the figure in bad years) so 200 times  less than the figure you state, just do a google search at the minimum before spreading such misinformation


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## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> really sorry but FFS could you please stop spreading this kind of **** info:



Well said. 
Flu... 0.1% death rate. 
COVID-19.... somewhere between 2-3%, if over 80 years old it's 15% death rate, if over 70, about 8%. 

Now some say this is just acceleration of a natural attrition (_"No-one here gets out alive" - _Clive James) but even if it's 2%, if you have 50 in your circle of family and friends, just ask yourself this: "Punk, are you feeling lucky today?" Because it it's going to get personal if the outbreak becomes a pandemic (which in and of itself is becoming more and more likely)


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> even if it's 2%, if you have 50 in your circle of family and friends, just ask yourself this: "Punk, are you feeling lucky today?" Because it it's going to get personal if the outbreak becomes a pandemic (which in and of itself is becoming more and more likely)




Thus far 81,002 cases reported of which 30,109 are recovered and 2,762 are dead.

So the death rate is presently at 3.4%, recovered 37.2% and the rest are still alive but infected.

So a 3.4% death rate thus far which realistically is more likely to go up rather than down given that almost 60% of cases are thus far unresolved and presumably at least some of those will end with death.

The only hope for a fall in the death rate is if it turns out that China's medical approach isn't as good as that of other countries. I've no idea if that's the case or not but it would appear that they've certainly made a major effort, they couldn't be accused of not at least trying, whilst in practice there are other countries which are really going to struggle to do much at all so there's a fair chance that the rest of the world as a whole isn't going to do any better than China's done with this. 

Particularly concerning is Iran. 95 cases with 16 reported deaths and no recoveries. I know nothing about Iran's hospitals but hopefully they're not much good and that's the reason for so many deaths? If they are good, and they still have that death rate, well then oh s***.


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## sptrawler (26 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Well said.
> Flu... 0.1% death rate.
> COVID-19.... somewhere between 2-3%, if over 80 years old it's 15% death rate, if over 70, about 8%.
> 
> Now some say this is just acceleration of a natural attrition (_"No-one here gets out alive" - _Clive James) but even if it's 2%, if you have 50 in your circle of family and friends, just ask yourself this: "Punk, are you feeling lucky today?" Because it it's going to get personal if the outbreak becomes a pandemic (which in and of itself is becoming more and more likely)



Lucky they are going to urbanise the young first.


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Thus far 81,002 cases reported of which 30,109 are recovered and 2,762 are dead.
> 
> So the death rate is presently at 3.4%, recovered 37.2% and the rest are still alive but infected.
> 
> ...



with the health minister contaminated in Iran...


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## Knobby22 (26 February 2020)

It's fascinating to watch this unfold. It is a proven fact that people are poor at assessing risk accurately. Me included.
This is going to be bad.


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## Klogg (26 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Thus far 81,002 cases reported of which 30,109 are recovered and 2,762 are dead.
> 
> So the death rate is presently at 3.4%, recovered 37.2% and the rest are still alive but infected.
> 
> ...




Mathematically, your death rate calculation is correct. However, there's reason to believe it much lower. 
Given the number of cases in China, there are bound to be some undetected, potentially thousands. If they survived, nobody tested them. If not, you can be sure people asked if they died of coronavirus.
So deaths are added to the count, survivors are not.

Further, we have better medical care than China. It won't make a huge difference, but it'll definitely reduce the death rate in 1st world countries.

Those two factors alone should lower the death rate, the first much more than the second. 
Or I'm just too optimistic...


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## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

Klogg said:


> Mathematically, your death rate calculation is correct. However, there's reason to believe it much lower.
> Given the number of cases in China, there are bound to be some undetected, potentially thousands. If they survived, nobody tested them. If not, you can be sure people asked if they died of coronavirus.
> So deaths are added to the count, survivors are not.
> 
> ...





Klogg said:


> Mathematically, your death rate calculation is correct. However, there's reason to believe it much lower.
> Given the number of cases in China, there are bound to be some undetected, potentially thousands. If they survived, nobody tested them. If not, you can be sure people asked if they died of coronavirus.
> So deaths are added to the count, survivors are not.
> 
> ...



True but only if you trust the Chinese numbers.Italy is the place to check to validate figures


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## Smurf1976 (26 February 2020)

Klogg said:


> Those two factors alone should lower the death rate, the first much more than the second.



I certainly hope you're right.....


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## sptrawler (26 February 2020)

I think people really need to think about which companies wont make it, if this becomes really protracted, some we are already seeing are struggling with China supply issues.
The next problem IMO, will be companies that supply China, they can only stockpile so long. Then when the trade frees up, China has been stockpiling end product also, it becomes a double whammy.
Just my thoughts.


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## basilio (26 February 2020)

We are all trying to make semi educated guesses about death ratios, quality of medical treatment,  ease of  infection whatever

For what its worth I  suspect that Chinese efforts at  controlling the population and treating the sick have been authoritarian and herculean. The authoritarian aspect has enabled them to take steps that may not be possible/palatable to other countries but may have  been helpful in controlling the spread of the disease. At least for the last 5 weeks. I think the hospital system seems to have worked itself into the ground to treat and support the people who have fallen ill.  Great effort. That's just my observations.

I also think the  Chinese government will throw whatever monies it needs to keep businesses  and people solvent while they try and muddle through. At least that is the impression I get and I think the point of a command economy like China is that the government can and does do this sort of thing. ( On that point its worth realising China has a very strong surplus and may need to sell US dollars to finance its support of the local economy.)

With those points in mind I  wonder how effectively other countries will react if they are similarly challenged ? Would the US medical system work anywhere near as hard to treat thousands of sick people ?  How well would control of population work ?  How willing would a US government be to keep people and busineses solvent if the situation  gets grim ?

We can be sure that many African countries will not have the resources to treat and effectively control populations.  What about Iran ? Indonesia ? Japan ? South Korea ? Italy ?

Along side all this how will international finances hold up ? What happens when countries become simply unable to meet  a range of corporate and international debts ?

*What is the Plan to address these possibilities ?  *I can see these questions arising within a 1-2 months at the current rate of infections and society shutdowns.  The world financial  system is not in great shape.  This isn't helping.


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## IFocus (26 February 2020)

Klogg said:


> Mathematically, your death rate calculation is correct. However, there's reason to believe it much lower.
> Given the number of cases in China, there are bound to be some undetected, potentially thousands. If they survived, nobody tested them. If not, you can be sure people asked if they died of coronavirus.
> So deaths are added to the count, survivors are not.
> 
> ...




Numbers out of China are not real so unreliable trying for any sort of accuracy  plenty of guessing going on but I believe the higher  fatality rate in the developing countries will balance against the 1st world and still land at around 2 to 3%.

Risk going forward is infection rate can still overwhelmed health services in the 1st world who wont necessarily be able to be as a aggressive as China isolation of cities.

Problem with the virus is the lack of knowledge so lots of unknowns, testing of how the virus develops in the lungs has only just started etc.

As for the vaccine lots of development in reducing time has happened but note none of the big pharma's have been involved thus far so mass production will be an issue and there have already been a number of setbacks but hopefully some smart scientist cracks it.

So not all the risks are understood but interesting the change in language about everyone becoming exposed so I am guessing economics will trump deaths borders will open to facilitate trade maybe sooner than later.

One of the issues with the China lock down is many medicines are now made there and a short fall is coming.


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## Smurf1976 (26 February 2020)

On the economic side something to consider is that the falls in markets are so widespread that there'd be very few people who haven't lost money.

It's not a "winners and losers" situation, there'd be very few winners out of this at the moment. The odd one but certainly not mainstream. 

This reality won't encourage consumer spending.


----------



## qldfrog (26 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> On the economic side something to consider is that the falls in markets are so widespread that there'd be very few people who haven't lost money.
> 
> It's not a "winners and losers" situation, there'd be very few winners out of this at the moment. The odd one but certainly not mainstream.
> 
> This reality won't encourage consumer spending.



isnt it the beauty of mandatory Super than even low paid workers in they 40 or 50ies while risking loosing their job in the next quarter will have lost more in the last 3 days than they will earn for the month, and probably lost more than their overall disposable income after mandatory expenses in the whole quarter.
There are no real winner, even a very conservative approach is seeing loses: gold was going down , as were bonds and AUD, the 3 together in a falling market....


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## So_Cynical (27 February 2020)

A couple of videos from the HK based South China Morning Post.
~

.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 February 2020)

Hope this works
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a1e5d49466c3a617215fdae1859c0cc4


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## basilio (27 February 2020)

The German paper offers  a European perspective on the spread of the virus.  The numbers are rising rapidly in Sth Koree and Japan.
New cases are popping up with seemingly no connection  to current known outbreaks


*News*
*COVID-19 updates: Germany facing a 'coronavirus epidemic'*
The coronavirus epidemic has triggered several warnings from officials about an impending pandemic. Follow DW for the latest updates across the globe as public health authorities struggle to contain the virus.

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-updates-germany-facing-a-coronavirus-epidemic/a-52536472


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## fergee (27 February 2020)

I think it would be a prudent move by the government to employ some pretty radical emergency regulation right now.

*STICK:*
Taiwan has implemented US$60k fines or two years in jail for breaking quarantine and going to public places where there are a lot of people. This is not a bad idea imo.

*CARROTS:*
Also I think the some helicopter money is in order, like the free $1k giveaway the Aus government did, just so people who lose income due to being in quarantine have money to get the basics and are not tempted to leave the house for work or to go find money to stay on top of bills etc. Hong Kong is currently doing something like this.

Another option could be interest free loan facilities to any that need it to cover mortgage interest, car payments, HP, BNPL payments etc just to save some strain on the retail, banking and real estate industries and to keep the velocity of money up.

Just a thought.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 February 2020)

Adding the views of another _eminence grise:_
" ....the combination  of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and unprecedented containment measures could mean that the infection rate peaks at some point in the next few months. But the economic response will undoubtedly lag the virus infection curve, as a premature relaxation of quarantines and travel restrictions could spur a new and more widespread wave of COVID-19.

That implies, at a minimum, a two-quarter growth shortfall for China, double the duration of the shortfall during SARS, suggesting that China could miss its 6 per cent annual growth target for 2020 by as much as one percentage point. China’s recent stimulus measures, aimed largely at the post-quarantine rebound, will not offset the draconian restrictions currently in place.

This matters little to the optimistic consensus of investors. After all, by definition shocks are merely temporary disruptions of an underlying trend. While it is tempting to dismiss this shock for that very reason, the key is to heed the implications of the underlying trend. The world economy was weak, and getting weaker, when COVID-19 struck.

The V-shaped recovery trajectory of a SARS-like episode will thus be much tougher to replicate – especially with monetary and fiscal authorities in the US, Japan, and Europe having such little ammunition at their disposal. That, of course, was the big risk all along In these days of dip-buying froth, China’s sneeze may prove to be especially vexing for long-complacent financial markets.
*Stephen Roach*

_- all this talk of V shaped recovery, or more realistically W, maybe U shaped.... But what if it's L-shaped (as in, going to L?)_


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

I hope the government is currently planning to mobilise the armed forces and get ready for the possibility of martial law. It sounds drastic but it may be what is required to maintain law and order and facilitate life under quarantine. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure at the end of the day.


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## moXJO (27 February 2020)

Thinking about this more...
How is business going to handle sick leave?
Quarantine period alone would wipe out most business. Then if large numbers get hit the country would shut down. 

Hopefully it fizzles out


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Thinking about this more...
> How is business going to handle sick leave?
> Quarantine period alone would wipe out most business. Then if large numbers get hit the country would shut down.
> 
> Hopefully it fizzles out



Interest free loans from the government. SME's especially will need financial assistance to keep the lights on otherwise this could lead to a major financial contagion.


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Adding the views of another _eminence grise:_
> " ....the combination  of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and unprecedented containment measures could mean that the infection rate peaks at some point in the next few months. But the economic response will undoubtedly lag the virus infection curve, as a premature relaxation of quarantines and travel restrictions could spur a new and more widespread wave of COVID-19.
> 
> That implies, at a minimum, a two-quarter growth shortfall for China, double the duration of the shortfall during SARS, suggesting that China could miss its 6 per cent annual growth target for 2020 by as much as one percentage point. China’s recent stimulus measures, aimed largely at the post-quarantine rebound, will not offset the draconian restrictions currently in place.
> ...



I think the buy the dip crowd are still in that mode of thinking and there will be a big dead cat bounce as money managers buy up and shorts cover but if that can manifest into a resumption of the last few years upward market trajectory will remain to be seen. 

I think this event will cause wider systemic problems and as Warren Buffet famously said "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."


----------



## basilio (27 February 2020)

The US should breathe easier today.

Donald Trump believes they have it well in hand and that there won't be any serious outbreak.
In any case he has appointed Mike Pence to be responsible for overseeing  US preparations and response to the CORVID 19 virus. That is  so reassuring..

------------------------------------
As far as people swimming naked. If countries face extended quarantine periods with millions of people  unable to work no business will be secure. It would be just too much of a strain on cashflow.

Honestly I think it should be a time of governments printing and distributing cash to keep people and businesses solvent until the crisis is over.  It would be so dumb to "survive" a 2-4 week quarantine period but go bankrupt, lose homes, lose businesses and everything else in the process. Not to mention dealing with the desperation  of millions of broke, hungry, homeless people people.  Just doesn't make sense IMV.


----------



## IFocus (27 February 2020)

It will be interesting how it plays out economy wise as already mentioned apologies for covering the same ground.

Election year for the US so I imagine Trump will look to throw stimulus from helicopters if necessary but how to manage the rate of infections so health care services  are not overwhelmed, length of isolation for the work force  and the implications  that surround that such as small business no work no income etc hard to see many that could have minor symptoms staying home going broke.

That's before you get to nursing homes etc.

All this while keeping supply chains open.

So far it looks like the Australian Federal government are following advice based on science hope that continues  but clearly discussions about enforcement of isolations etc would also be happening that would be scary.

Still prepare for the worse hope for the best.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 February 2020)

fergee said:


> I hope the government is currently planning to mobilise ....



was at the hospital today, visiting  a bed bound relative .
Got the distinct impression non urgents were being delayed, and wards cleared, bed by bed.


----------



## basilio (27 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> was at the hospital today, visiting  a bed bound relative .
> Got the distinct impression non urgents were being delayed, and wards cleared, bed by bed.




Interesting.  I wonder how they will deal with the infectious nature of the disease in a mixed public hospital ? Could be sticky with cross infection.

I hope/guess this issue has been through and sorted.


----------



## basilio (27 February 2020)

Ok so the government has some specific plans to deal with a full blown pandemic.
Quite commendable.
_Speaking at the Royal Children’s hospital in Melbourne, Victoria’s chief health officer, Dr Brett Sutton, said authorities were working on the basis that a coronavirus pandemic was inevitable.

“I think it’s much, much safer that way,” Sutton said. “We have to proceed with planning on the basis it is inevitable and we can and should expect more cases in Australia in the coming weeks or months. I don’t want to see us get caught out at all.”_

What I didn't see in the picture was how people and organization were going to stay solvent during this  process.  This has to be addressed IMV.

At least we have a plan. I'm not sure if the Trump administration can offer such a structure beyond "thoughts and prayers"

* Australia's coronavirus pandemic plan: mass vaccinations and stadium quarantine *

A pandemic could last up to 10 months with 40% of the workforce sidelined by illness or caring for family in worst-case scenario
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...plan-mass-vaccinations-and-stadium-quarantine


----------



## basilio (27 February 2020)

I found this statement puzzling from The Guardian report.
I would have thought that if up to 40% of the workforce was either sick, caring for the sick or in quarantine  GDP would be hit much harder than "10%".  I suppose the  catch word is "*greater* than 10%"

_“The social distancing measures that may be required will have wide-ranging effects, with closure of schools and childcare services, and cancellation of public events. It is estimated that up to 40% of the workforce may withdraw from work at any one time due to illness, the need to care for family members or the fear of contracting the virus in the workplace or on public transport.

“One study estimated that in a worst-case pandemic influenza scenario, Australia’s gross domestic product could suffer a decline of greater than 10%._


----------



## sptrawler (27 February 2020)

What I found interesting, was the media was annoyed that the Government wanted to send the first cases to Christmas Island, now they sound annoyed if the Government is going to bring any Uni students in.  I could hear the gears grating from here, as they grabbed reverse.


----------



## sptrawler (27 February 2020)

Getting back to topic, as we suspected, travel agents starting to come up for air.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...big-hit-from-coronavirus-20200227-p544uf.html

Flight Centre has cut its full-year profit guidance by 22 per cent, to between $240 million and $300 million, as the coronavirus outbreak crushes travel demand globally.

The travel booking group also cut its interim dividend after delivering a weak set of half-year results on Thursday


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

I  just went for a bike ride to other side of the city I live in here in Shikoku, Japan, to do some shopping. I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing sick masks today, around 25%-30% of people, none of them were N95 masks. 

I also talked to a couple of the locals I know here and they were saying that people are getting more worried about the whole situation. 

The thing is people here do not take days off sick unless they have go to hospital as their work places and home budgetary requirements do not allow it. 

So far I have heard of cases in Tokyo, Hokkaido and anecdotally in Osaka. The governments official statistics seem to have tapered off over the last few days but I do not trust them as the government have a tendency to worry about their image more than anything else and have a track record of cover ups.


----------



## brty (27 February 2020)

Perchance I was in the emergency ward, not by choice, a day (could have been 2) after the first Swine Flu case in Australia died. I was also in the hospital where this person had been officially diagnosed a few days earlier, he was then transferred.

There was pretty much blind panic going on in the facility. A doctor turned up and ordered the immediate release of EVERYONE in the emergency ward. There were people there for a variety of emergency conditions, none of which were Swine Flu.
Basically every other condition was suddenly deemed minor, so people went without the appropriate treatment and care.

I imagine something similar will happen all over the country when we start getting community spread.


----------



## sptrawler (27 February 2020)

fergee said:


> I  just went for a bike ride to other side of the city I live in here in Shikoku, Japan, to do some shopping. I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing sick masks today, around 25%-30% of people, none of them were N95 masks.
> 
> I also talked to a couple of the locals I know here and they were saying that people are getting more worried about the whole situation.
> 
> ...



I was in Kochi in early December on the Diamond Princess, lovely area, jeez I missed a bullet by not being there for this outbreak.
Talk about a close call.
It must be having a huge effect on tourism in Japan, fergee.


----------



## Sdajii (27 February 2020)

fergee said:


> I  just went for a bike ride to other side of the city I live in here in Shikoku, Japan, to do some shopping. I noticed a lot more people than usual wearing sick masks today, around 25%-30% of people, none of them were N95 masks.
> 
> I also talked to a couple of the locals I know here and they were saying that people are getting more worried about the whole situation.
> 
> ...




I'm interested in your last statement. Obviously many countries are underreporting and can't be trusted any more than a priest with a child, but I would have thought Japan would be quite genuine and accurate with its figures. Do you think this isn't the case?


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I'm interested in your last statement. Obviously many countries are underreporting and can't be trusted any more than a priest with a child, but I would have thought Japan would be quite genuine and accurate with its figures. Do you think this isn't the case?



No, I don't think that is the case. I have lived here for 3.5 years, the image Japan portrays to the world through soft power and paid marketing and the reality of life in Japan are two totally different things.


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I was in Kochi in early December on the Diamond Princess, lovely area, jeez I missed a bullet by not being there for this outbreak.
> Talk about a close call.
> It must be having a huge effect on tourism in Japan, fergee.




You were on the Diamond princess..... in Japan Jeez mate you dodged two bullets must have had your dancing shoes on.

Kochi is nice I have been there a couple of times. I live in Takamatsu on the other side of Shikoku next to the Seto inland sea.

Tourism is taking a bit of a hit because there noticeably less Chinese, there are still a few around though, as this is the off peak season here. I have noticed very few future bookings from chinese at the air b and b I work for in the next few months, had a few Aussies though recently that was awesome!

Spring is peak season when people come to see the cherry blossoms. I imagine the numbers will be down and Hana mi gatherings will be less common which is a shame as theres nothing like a picnic under the cherry blossom trees drinking a bit of sake mid day


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Ok so the government has some specific plans to deal with a full blown pandemic.
> Quite commendable.




Not just the federal government either.

When I was in Tas one of the "disaster" scenarios considered at work was "pandemic" along with various others relating to major incidents of various kinds (major accidents, technical failures, structural failures, natural disaster etc anything of a dramatic impact that would not be seen as routine).

I can't disclose any detail, it's all confidential, but suffice to say the basic concepts of how to deal with that sort of thing are all worked out, it just needs adapting to the detail of the specific incident as it unfolds but the principles to be applied are already sorted.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 February 2020)

brty said:


> Perchance I was in the emergency ward, not by choice, a day (could have been 2) after the first Swine Flu case in Australia died.



Swine Flu was most unpleasant.

I know because I caught it. Spent a week lying flat on my back and I mean that literally - flat on the floor looking at the ceiling was the only place that was even remotely comfortable. Miserable it was.


----------



## Sdajii (27 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Swine Flu was most unpleasant.
> 
> I know because I caught it. Spent a week lying flat on my back and I mean that literally - flat on the floor looking at the ceiling was the only place that was even remotely comfortable. Miserable it was.




I had swine flu, I got lucky, it was just a week off work, wasn't feeling too great but was well enough to sit at the computer and watch the stocks, read ASF, sit on the couch and watch movies, etc. Not pleasant by any stretch but not even the worst flu I'd ever had. Everyone gets hit differently like this bug ranging between basically no symptoms through to death. Swine flu was similar in that way.


----------



## Sdajii (27 February 2020)

fergee said:


> No, I don't think that is the case. I have lived here for 3.5 years, the image Japan portrays to the world through soft power and paid marketing and the reality of life in Japan are two totally different things.




I'm surprised to read this, thanks for your input. I've spent all of about a month in Japan so don't have any first hand knowledge like you do. I'll have to ask some of my friends living in Japan (including native Japanese). It'll be interesting to hear what they say. In a way, someone like yourself has a better perspective than a native because you're less likely to have loyalty/bias, but at the same time, it's hard to match the local knowledge of a local. Thanks for your post.


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I'm surprised to read this, thanks for your input. I've spent all of about a month in Japan so don't have any first hand knowledge like you do. I'll have to ask some of my friends living in Japan (including native Japanese). It'll be interesting to hear what they say. In a way, someone like yourself has a better perspective than a native because you're less likely to have loyalty/bias, but at the same time, it's hard to match the local knowledge of a local. Thanks for your post.



Totally agree the locals have a much better understanding than I ever could. The question would be are they willing to be totally honest about things as they may not want to lose face saying anything negative about their country. I find a couple of drinks usually gets the honesty out of my Japanese friends to the point where I have seen them be quite frank with their boss's! I would be very interested to hear what your friends there have to say.

@Sdajii and @Smurf1976 great to hear about, although Im sure not great for you at the time,  your experiences with swine flu knowing you both had a varying experience and are still alive makes me feel a bit better right now for some reason.


----------



## fergee (27 February 2020)

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-worlds-biggest-exporters-2018

https://howmuch.net/articles/countries-with-the-biggest-forex-reserves

A few of these countries are looking a bit fragile when comparing export revenue to FX reserves. Could be a bit of a capital crunch coming and a que forming up to get a loan from the IMF


----------



## tinhat (27 February 2020)

I assume it's already been said (I'm not going to go through this thread to verify), there is no reason to think of economic implications to death regardless of scale. Good evening.


----------



## Sdajii (28 February 2020)

fergee said:


> Totally agree the locals have a much better understanding than I ever could. The question would be are they willing to be totally honest about things as they may not want to lose face saying anything negative about their country. I find a couple of drinks usually gets the honesty out of my Japanese friends to the point where I have seen them be quite frank with their boss's! I would be very interested to hear what your friends there have to say.
> 
> @Sdajii and @Smurf1976 great to hear about, although Im sure not great for you at the time,  your experiences with swine flu knowing you both had a varying experience and are still alive makes me feel a bit better right now for some reason.




I've done some talking with friends and have basically confirmed what you have said. Japan is more likely to be honest than most countries but not to the extent I had guessed, or to the extent most western folks would.

As I said, I have been to Japan and have Japanese friends and am aware of how to interpret them. My first time in Japan I wanted to try whale, I asked many people and they all said they didn't know where to get it, it's very rare and probably impossible to find. A couple of years later I had friends close enough to tell me the truth. I've spent a total of about 5 years in Asia and am well familiar with the extreme 'saving face' culture in many countries, and that my above question would get a different answer if I just asked random Japanese people or less close friends. Japanese are definitely more convincing liars than most Asians too!

As for swine flu, don't let it make you complacent. Swine flu had an approximate fatality rate of about 0.1%. Officially covid 19 is around 2% but the official figures are around 3,000 deaths and 80,000 infections, mostly still active. Even if we were to believe that every single one of the current cases would result in recovery, we get more than a 2% mortality rate. In reality, there are probably many more undocumented mild cases than undocumented deaths, but also, many of the currently active cases will result in death. The real figure could be 10-15% (very difficult to say, since it's still early days with what limited information we have being very unreliable). It's far more contagious than SARS and far more deadly than swine flu and will definitely have a far larger global impact than either. Don't be too scared, the mortality rate among anyone who is healthy and not elderly will be quite low. My mother is in her late 70s and a hardcore anti vaxer, but I'd say even she will probably live to see 2022.


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> I assume it's already been said (I'm not going to go through this thread to verify), there is no reason to think of economic implications to death regardless of scale. Good evening.



Unfortunately it is difficult to be a good trader, when you let emotions get involved, I know I've missed many opportunities because I thought it didn't sit well or may ruin a friendship down the track.
In hindsight it has cost me millions truly, but I still have my friend and I still can sleep at night.
And probably why I'm still not a trader.


----------



## tinhat (28 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Unfortunately it is difficult to be a good trader, when you let emotions get involved, I know I've missed many opportunities because I thought it didn't sit well or may ruin a friendship down the track.
> In hindsight it has cost me millions truly, but I still have my friend and I still can sleep at night.
> And probably why I'm still not a trader.




Mate you know better than me how to be a "good person". It's not just money right?


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> It's not just money right?




Agreed it's not just about money, for the record there's a member of my own family I have a lot of concern about in the event they become infected since they seemingly tick the boxes so far as being high risk of death is concerned, but practical reality is there's stuff all any of us can do about the pandemic beyond basic hygiene.

That being so, may as well focus on what else can be done under the circumstances and realistically that's personal preparations in a physical sense and the financial aspects.


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2020)

Absolutely spot on smurf, if at all possible avoid getting it, if you can't avoid getting it help those older by not giving it to them.
Also if you have elderly parents, as I do, start and get some things in place so they don't have to leave the house while it blows over.
Better to be safe than sorry.


----------



## MrChow (28 February 2020)

https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932

Did get my numbers slightly wrong not 1m, but 650k flu deaths worldwide per annum.

(Your quote about 61k was for US only 5% of the worlds population)

https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/heal...g-flu-struck-without-warning-50-years-ago-and

The last major virus similar to coronavirus was in 1968 where an estimated 1m people died.

And a bit of editorialising - Watched Trump's presser this morning and they've a total of 1 case that has been spread from person to person within the country and he expects total cases of Coronavirus in the US to fall to 0 in the coming days.


----------



## ducati916 (28 February 2020)

All sorts of ramifications emerging:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nestle...ps-11582741050?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=7

https://www.wsj.com/articles/out-of...rs-11582713005?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-su...china-the-u-s-and-germany-are-key-11582712810

Virus is now present on 6 continents.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

MrChow said:


> https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932
> 
> Did get my numbers slightly wrong not 1m, but 650k flu deaths worldwide per annum.
> 
> ...



Point taken, my mistake as my source was an American study who seems to think the USA is the world.
My error, does not change the fact that whatever figure you play with, this virus is far more deadly, has no vaccine and is more contagious.so we will all get it at some stage and the overall figures with this new virus will be much higher than the seasonal glu at least in the first couple of years
And the economic effect even if sorted tomorrow..which it will not..are massive


----------



## rederob (28 February 2020)

MrChow said:


> https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932
> 
> Did get my numbers slightly wrong not 1m, but 650k flu deaths worldwide per annum.
> 
> ...



The concern with COVID-19 is that mortality is so far estimated around 2.3% of those contracting it, versus about  0.1% for the common flu.
COVID-19 is no where near as deadly as SARS or MERS, but spreads more easily.  This concern may have a basis in that it is possible some people may carry the virus and spread it without showing typical symptoms.
At time of writing the previous linked article has 12 organisations/companies with potential vaccines.
Having watched markets for the past few weeks it's difficult to determine why some OZ stocks which appear not to be particularly exposed, have fallen considerably, like property funds such as Dexus which has declined almost 8% during the week, or ASX itself which has declined over 11% in a fortnight.
So if you can work out which companies appear to be oversold on "fear" rather than "risk", I reckon there will be dozens of good buying opportunities. 
The other interesting tid bit of disease commentary is that regulatory authorities seem to be indicating that the rigorous testing of a vaccine that is normally required might be put to one side for COVID-19. Assuming one of the many potential vaccines is successful, that could put something into the western market within 6 months.  However, the Chinese may not feel so constrained and their partnership with GSK could have something out sooner.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 February 2020)

S what are the sharemarket strategies of those here in view of the fact that Wall St was down 4% overnight ?

Buy , sell or hold ?


----------



## Porper (28 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> S what are the sharemarket strategies of those here in view of the fact that Wall St was down 4% overnight ?
> 
> Buy , sell or hold ?




In my view stops on open positions should have been tightened already. We'll get a bounce for sure but I won't be buying it. The next opportunities could be to the short side, albeit not now.


----------



## MrChow (28 February 2020)

Simple rule of thumb for me:

Recession -20% minimum
No Recession -20% maximum

So it depends on whether you forecast coronavirus to take hold en masse in the U.S which leads to a hit to consumer spending and companies cutting jobs etc...

I am not close to that outcome yet based on available information. So I would be confident if the drop gets closer to -20% (currently -12%) it'd be a good opportunity to ride the recovery.

Same scenarios as the commodity bust in 2015 and yield inversion in 2018 both pushed the -20% mark and recovered fast once worst case scenario failed to eventuate.


----------



## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

I feel our economy will hurt so will the aud
Out if that i i wou agree with the analysis of @MrChow  but only for selected stocks, miners will be hit hard but fall in oil price and lower aud will allow them to recover.
Thinks like banks will be on gov live support, a lot of companies will die, the cleaning we missed during the gfc here in Australia will happen.good on the long term, a disaster for the short term and people involved
Food health etc should be relatively safe.far too late to panic Sell All, there was plenty of time to take protective measures a month ago for anyone willing to look.


----------



## moXJO (28 February 2020)

You have to allow for the media scare campaign on the unknown. Usually follows the same pattern
Massive drop on fear.
Stabilize on more information.

Drop when infections actually hit locally.

Jump up, once unknowns are known. 

Its just a bad flu so I'd be looking for bargains when everyone is running. Same thing happened during the banking crisis, y2k, tech wreck, etc. 

The market was overvalued imo though. And you have to factor in more then just the flu this time round. Supply chains, recession,  etc.


----------



## moXJO (28 February 2020)

It should clear out the competition and leave those that do survive in prime position.


----------



## againsthegrain (28 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> You have to allow for the media scare campaign on the unknown. Usually follows the same pattern
> Massive drop on fear.
> Stabilize on more information.
> 
> ...




How does everybody think property will be affected? good time to buy, good time to sell? 

My logic is:
Economy weakening,  less spending less jobs.  More jobs at risk even less spending, less profit for business and goes in a loop. 

People avoiding bigger crowds (auctions, inspections)  so less interested less buyers present.

Interested rates may go slightly lower but they are so low the difference is not so big,  banks definitely not wanting to lend more in the fear of shaky jobs. 

So basically from this point of view less people want to put their properties on the market (less stock) kind of want to wait it out

Less people willing to get into the market (less buyers) 

Some will be desperate to sell because they may be forced to by
1. Income loss/partial loss due to economy slowdown 
2. Income loss due to physical sickness from the virus,  family members sick have to care for them 

In the media property market is apparently still going strong but I can't really picture it going up. 

I know 2 people one in Qld one in Vic

Qld decided to take theirs off the market after a few months of no success as they don't want constant unknowns walking through inspections possibly increasing the chance of getting the virus (paranoid I know) 

Vic getting alot of low offers


----------



## moXJO (28 February 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> How does everybody think property will be affected? good time to buy, good time to sell?
> 
> My logic is:
> Economy weakening,  less spending less jobs.  More jobs at risk even less spending, less profit for business and goes in a loop.
> ...




NSW they started a lot of unit development in my area. A real lot. So they must have thought conditions will be ok, because they would be in the high tens of millions cost wise. Surely someone has done their homework.

Me personally, I'd have said we keep drifting down. Everyone is too stretched. No one is spending and there's bugger all money around. 

But perhaps with a stock market crash, the old 'safe as houses  comes into play. 
I haven't checked immigration/ to houses built in a while either. Might be a shortfall. Generally if we are not building enough to cover, houses will hold up a lot better.


----------



## brty (28 February 2020)

A lot of people everywhere do not seem to understand what is going on with Coronavirus, as it is a true Black Swan that has hit a complacent world.

We could defeat it, and everything would go back to semi normal, with a recession the result of the damage already caused. That seems to be the thinking of most, the overpriced markets were due for a correction and we have had the needed catalyst to send them down into bargain territory.

Are we there yet?? I'm seeing the technical indicators way oversold, plus stocks that have reached support levels and in quite a few cases breached them.

This event is unlike the GFC, where some people in charge just decided to create a whole lot of money out of thin air to solve the problem. Also it is unlike Y2k, that was a non event, or the Asian currency crisis of the late 90's, etc, etc.

This time is different, because the problem cannot be solved by printing money, yet that is what many are expecting to happen.

What I'm feeling is that there is a possibility we are in the middle of an event like 1987, where markets crashed in a short period of time. There are also some uncanny resemblances market wise.
In 1986 the S&P500 low was ~229 points, with the '87 high being ~338 points, before the crash.
In very late 2018 the S&P500 low was ~2355 points, with the '20 high being 3393.

Back in '87 the markets were very overpriced, just like now, and after the initial sell off people bought the dip because all the indicators were way oversold. 1987 taught those of us involved in markets that anything can and will happen. Safety is always paramount in markets.

I've been 85% cash recently, been stopped out of BBOZ twice in the last 2 weeks (including last Thursday within 1c of the bottom), but went long BBUS which is well in the money. I've had these as a hedge against my long term stocks (small amount) that I still hold.

Just to lighten the mood, againsthegrain's comment ...

"I know 2 people one in Qld one in Vic" can I suggest you get out more, after the coronavirus.


----------



## ducati916 (28 February 2020)

Delivery supply chains, which are just-in-time, are clearly disrupted. Which is a breach of contract. There are already 1600 Chinese firms litigating a 'Force Majeure' clause worth over $15B. The tip of the iceburg.

Secondarily, with supply chains disrupted, price inflation in certain areas of the economy where demand will now outstrip supply?

jog on
duc


----------



## moXJO (28 February 2020)

brty said:


> This time is different



I heard this every time. 
We went through SARS and MERS. MERS nobody probably even remembers.  I'm a little concerned this time but fairly confident it won't be to bad.

Quick trades on the bounce and let her drop.
Until a country reaches full infection, it's hard to tell where it will go. 
But I'm looking at the boom when it goes through. Who's going to prosper when weak competition is gone. Or even locally sourced suppliers benefiting/manufacturing?

When all is said and done, humans are dead set like cockroaches, we bounce back every time.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2020)

ducati916 said:


> There are already 1600 Chinese firms litigating a 'Force Majeure' clause worth over $15B



My thinking there is company A can’t accept a delivery, company B then defaults on a debt to banking company C which had onsold that to hedge fund company D.

In other words same basic concept as the GFC just with different triggers but the same scenario of cascading defaults and nobody knows who’s solvent and who isn’t.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> But I'm looking at the boom when it goes through. Who's going to prosper when weak competition is gone. Or even locally sourced suppliers benefiting/manufacturing?




Globalisation was largely a 1990’s and 00’s thing in terms of trade volume and never really regained momentum after the GFC. More recently it has been visibly on the ropes - Trump, Brexit, trade wars, broader concern about the economic effects in Western countries and so on.

If there’s one outcome of all this that I’m expecting it’s a greater diversification of the supply chain. All of a sudden even those who couldn’t see the obvious risks previously will be well aware of them now.

Wherever sees strong growth in manufacturing over the coming years it won’t be China.


----------



## Sdajii (28 February 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> How does everybody think property will be affected? good time to buy, good time to sell?
> 
> My logic is:
> Economy weakening,  less spending less jobs.  More jobs at risk even less spending, less profit for business and goes in a loop.
> ...




I expect property prices will be hit hard during the course of this year. A big reason property prices in Australia are high is foreign investment, notably from China. This is going to smash China's economy, which can surely only hurt property prices. And of course, the world's economy will be hit pretty hard by this. You don't shut down half of China and a good chunk of the rest of Asia without causing economic harm, even if the cause is nothing. Global tourism is going to be smashed this year, which reduces the demand for accommodation (when people are on holiday they occupy twice as much accommodation as usual). People aren't going to be as keen to go out to a movie or restaurant or sport event (Olympics will probably be cancelled, they're still reluctant to say it but c'mon, it's pretty obvious), plus all the other economic hits I could list. A lot of them are specific to housing. And if a percentage of the world does get knocked off by this virus, that's whatever number less people needing housing, and housing demand is relatively inelastic relative to population, while houses aren't going to be destroyed by the virus. 

I'm not sure how bad it will get, but I think it'll make 2008 look like dropping a $20 into a drain, and housing will be significantly hit.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 February 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I expect property prices will be hit hard during the course of this year. A big reason property prices in Australia are high is foreign investment, notably from China. This is going to smash China's economy, which can surely only hurt property prices. And of course, the world's economy will be hit pretty hard by this. You don't shut down half of China and a good chunk of the rest of Asia without causing economic harm, even if the cause is nothing. Global tourism is going to be smashed this year, which reduces the demand for accommodation (when people are on holiday they occupy twice as much accommodation as usual). People aren't going to be as keen to go out to a movie or restaurant or sport event (Olympics will probably be cancelled, they're still reluctant to say it but c'mon, it's pretty obvious), plus all the other economic hits I could list. A lot of them are specific to housing. And if a percentage of the world does get knocked off by this virus, that's whatever number less people needing housing, and housing demand is relatively inelastic relative to population, while houses aren't going to be destroyed by the virus.
> 
> I'm not sure how bad it will get, but I think it'll make 2008 look like dropping a $20 into a drain, and housing will be significantly hit.




On the other hand, there could be a lot of Chinese and other Asians (Sth Koreans, Hong Kongers, Indonesians) seeking a safe  haven here which will drive up prices.


----------



## againsthegrain (28 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> On the other hand, there could be a lot of Chinese and other Asians (Sth Koreans, Hong Kongers, Indonesians) seeking a safe  haven here which will drive up prices.




I don't think there can be a safe haven as its official now its a worldwide pandemic


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## Knobby22 (28 February 2020)

As per of his war on science. Trump had cut the US Centre for Disease Control by 9% and just this month proposed slashing it by a further 16%.
He shut down the US Complex Crisis fund.

This is no tirade of Trump - the reason I am mentioning this is that due to his actions there are only three test kits in all of America to test for the virus. They have only tested 426 people! *They have no idea how many Americans have the virus!!! It could be thousands already.*


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## fergee (28 February 2020)

brty said:


> A lot of people everywhere do not seem to understand what is going on with Coronavirus, as it is a true Black Swan that has hit a complacent world.
> 
> We could defeat it, and everything would go back to semi normal, with a recession the result of the damage already caused. That seems to be the thinking of most, the overpriced markets were due for a correction and we have had the needed catalyst to send them down into bargain territory.
> 
> ...



@brty This was a great post! Cheers

Thank you for passing on your experiences to us "slightly" younger blokes that weren't born or still in school at the time. Those price levels are uncanny X10!

I also think it currently looks more akin to a 1987 event, from looking at the charts, but Im picking it will diverge from that pattern down the road to create its own form.

Although I have felt the markets have been over cooked for a few years now I also think the 2020's will be an amazing decade to invest with the emergence of the Space industry, electric cars  and all the other exciting new technology that is coming out. Just my


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I expect property prices will be hit hard during the course of this year. A big reason property prices in Australia are high is foreign investment, notably from China. This is going to smash China's economy, which can surely only hurt property prices. And of course, the world's economy will be hit pretty hard by this. You don't shut down half of China and a good chunk of the rest of Asia without causing economic harm, even if the cause is nothing. Global tourism is going to be smashed this year, which reduces the demand for accommodation (when people are on holiday they occupy twice as much accommodation as usual). People aren't going to be as keen to go out to a movie or restaurant or sport event (Olympics will probably be cancelled, they're still reluctant to say it but c'mon, it's pretty obvious), plus all the other economic hits I could list. A lot of them are specific to housing. And if a percentage of the world does get knocked off by this virus, that's whatever number less people needing housing, and housing demand is relatively inelastic relative to population, while houses aren't going to be destroyed by the virus.
> 
> I'm not sure how bad it will get, but I think it'll make 2008 look like dropping a $20 into a drain, and housing will be significantly hit.



I agree with most of your post, except a lot will depend on how well Australia and New Zealand cope with it, IF we go through with the appearance of being a relatively safe haven, house demand in Australia NZ will go through the roof. 
The wealthy Chinese will be wanting to get out of there ASAP and will probably only want to visit on webcam.
Having said that I doubt anyone will be lucky enough to miss the virus, one way or another. 
Just my opinion.


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## Smurf1976 (28 February 2020)

Regarding the share market, I noticed today that there was a notice added to CommSec to the effect of "we're experiencing an abnormally high volume today so if you phone then you may not get through". That wasn't the exact wording but that's what they were saying, unusually high volumes.

This tells me that small investors are taking note, it's not simply institutions, robots or index funds moving the market.


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## sptrawler (28 February 2020)

Australian miners may have a huge problem, the iron ore and just about any other raw material, may well get turned back IMO.
The Chinese have a track record of saying, "what contract, things are now different, we need another contract" with their manufacturing throttled back, I doubt they will want to keep receiving raw materials.
Just my opinion but I am keeping a wide berth of the miners ATM, unless they become screaming buys, which IMO wont happen untill China says enough.
Like I said it is just my opinion, as a long term holder, not a trader.


----------



## explod (28 February 2020)

Thinking of going back on the smokes, will enhance my party under the sunset tree.


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## fergee (28 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with most of your post, except a lot will depend on how well Australia and New Zealand cope with it, IF we go through with the appearance of being a relatively safe haven, house demand in Australia NZ will go through the roof.
> The wealthy Chinese will be wanting to get out of there ASAP and will probably only want to visit on webcam.
> Having said that I doubt anyone will be lucky enough to miss the virus, one way or another.
> Just my opinion.




I could imagine if that hypothetically happened, safe haven or "exclsuion living" buying as a reason, that Tassie could would get a bump in house prices. I couldn't think of a better place in Aussie! NZ I would be thinking Stewart Island or McKenzie country or Fjiordland would be my picks.


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## explod (28 February 2020)

fergee said:


> I could imagine if that hypothetically happened, safe haven or "exclsuion living" buying as a reason, that Tassie could would get a bump in house prices. I couldn't think of a better place in Aussie! NZ I would be thinking Stewart Island or McKenzie country or Fjiordland would be my picks.



Some US elite have taken up holdings in upper areas of the NZ South Island for some years now.


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## fergee (28 February 2020)

explod said:


> Some US elite have taken up holdings in upper areas of the NZ South Island for some years now.



They have been buying up "doomsday day" bunkers for years now. Not just that because they bought so much property/investments they get a NZ passport to boot!

Youtube has a vice episode about it, which to be honest isn't very good, but there's a lot of other info online about it.......I wonder if the owners are kicking it there now in self isolation?


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## Smurf1976 (28 February 2020)

Just went to the local supermarket to buy a few things.

Took a wander around looking to see if anything looked to be running out bearing in mind this issue. Only thing I spotted was paracetamol tablets - Panadol and various other brands were still in stock but well back on the shelf as though rather a lot have been sold today. That makes some sense if there's a modest level of preparing going on.


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## macca (28 February 2020)

I guess it does not hurt to store a few non perishable food stuffs, cleaning products, sanitizers and booze.

If it gets really bad us old fellas were taught during the cold war to get roaring drunk then bend right over and kiss your ass good bye


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## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Only thing I spotted was paracetamol tablets - Panadol and etc.



 I read (can't source) 50% of analgesics are Made in China


----------



## joeno (28 February 2020)

Now that COVID's spread into Europe guess it's NOT a big deal now. It's just as harmless as the flu according to the BBC and Italian news and American news.

Something something trying to cause instability/panic with rising Asian "communist" threat. But the bull**** doesn't stick once it hits the fan and splatters everyone. LOL


----------



## qldfrog (28 February 2020)

i


Smurf1976 said:


> Just went to the local supermarket to buy a few things.
> 
> Took a wander around looking to see if anything looked to be running out bearing in mind this issue. Only thing I spotted was paracetamol tablets - Panadol and various other brands were still in stock but well back on the shelf as though rather a lot have been sold today. That makes some sense if there's a modest level of preparing going on.



Impossible to find masks at bunnings or hand sanitisers at woolies today


----------



## fergee (28 February 2020)

joeno said:


> Now that COVID's spread into Europe guess it's NOT a big deal now. It's just as harmless as the flu according to the BBC and Italian news and American news.
> 
> Something something trying to cause instability/panic with rising Asian "communist" threat. But the bull**** doesn't stick once it hits the fan and splatters everyone. LOL




Hey man I don't agree with what you have to say but....... you have the right to freedom of speech too so paint your reality what ever colour you want.


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## Sdajii (29 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> On the other hand, there could be a lot of Chinese and other Asians (Sth Koreans, Hong Kongers, Indonesians) seeking a safe  haven here which will drive up prices.




Definitely, but they will be outnumbered by lost tourism etc.

I flew from Singapore to Melbourne earlier this week, usually there would be plenty of Australians on such a flight but looking around the plane it seemed to be about 2% Australians, the rest I'd estimate at around 1/3 wealthy looking Indians and 2/3 wealthy looking Asians, many of whom were no doubt looking for a safe haven, and I'd say most of those hadn't really thought things through (they can't stay in Australia indefinitely at least in most cases, so 'escaping' in the early stages is silly, but hey, people are silly). I was in Thailand for some of February where people from many countries have come to escape the virus. Not that Thailand is a good place to do so, but some people seem to think so, and Thailand is currently desperate enough to let just about anyone in (their economy is heavily reliant on tourism, and their tourism industry was severely down due to internal issues, and then Mr. Corona came and was able to utterly raze the already weakened industry).

Other posters do raise a potentially valid idea about safe haven buying by the ultra wealthy Chinese etc. Whether that will be a bigger force than an overall property crash is hard to say. I'd still be tipping a crash, especially if/when Australia starts having its own casualties. But, if our Corona friend isn't severe enough to overwhelm the Australian healthcare system it's definitely possible we'll see quite the rush from the world's ultra rich, especially from India, China, Japan, etc.


----------



## Value Collector (29 February 2020)

These three charts show some pretty positive trends in regards to the actual virus figures.


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## MrChow (29 February 2020)

I'm still rather ho hum about this (Unless you live in Wuhan 80% of cases in 0.002 of the world population seems quite concentrated).

I'd be very surprised if markets aren't back to their highs by end of year.

China businesses are reopening as new cases decline, combined with a total of 1 'in country spread' in the U.S so far.

To back it up we're on the internet hypothesising about theoretical financial effects.  If there's a threat worthy of recession this thread would end and we'd be talking to people in real life about survival.


----------



## ducati916 (29 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> My thinking there is company A can’t accept a delivery, company B then defaults on a debt to banking company C which had onsold that to hedge fund company D.
> 
> In other words same basic concept as the GFC just with different triggers but the same scenario of cascading defaults and nobody knows who’s solvent and who isn’t.





Correct.

With (junk bonds) BBB rated at 3.4T, there is a lot of pain to go around.

Given that Hedge Funds tend to buy on margin, liquidity again becomes an issue (if and when) the shoe drops.

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (29 February 2020)

Pandemics do cause recessions:

Asian flu 1957/58
Cholera pandemic 1961
Hong Kong flu 1969

A 'mean reversion' means that you go through the 'mean'.

jog on
duc


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## Sir Burr (29 February 2020)

Sdajii said:


> and Thailand is currently desperate enough to let just about anyone in (their economy is heavily reliant on tourism, and their tourism industry was severely down due to internal issues, and then Mr. Corona came




Yep, Thailand hasn’t imposed any bans on Chinese and besides the unashamedly double pricing there, it's no longer the cheap as chips destination for AUD.


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## basilio (29 February 2020)

I don't think "normal" financial analysis is  any way appropriate to use when considering the economic consequences of this rapidly spreading  virus. Why ?

1) It won't be dealt with by economic  levers like  interest rate cuts central bank intervention. You can't just restart economic activity if  whole regions are  closed down or more importantly industries can't operate because particular components are now unavailable
2) The inter connectivity between countries means financial problems in one economy will cascade into others very quickly. Smurfs post outlining the knock on effect of company A to B to C to D  is will come into effect

3) The complexity of our societies could now become an Achilles heel. Banking systems are now largely electronic.  I wouldn't be confident of these systems holding up if illnesses, shortages , breakdowns spread.

4) On a similar note I wouldn't be betting on the security of these systems to protect personal wealth. Put simply I don't trust the organisations and /or their owners who are managing other peoples assets to put their clients interest ahead of theirs.  Can anyone remember how the banks operated in the US when the GFC was in full roar ? Yep they made out like bandits.

5) I think traditional economic activity, just making and promoting and selling things to make a profit, will need to take a back seat to survival mode until this crisis is sorted out.  In fact it should be very much like a  war crisis situation with substantial government intervention to protect  lives as far as possible, ensure resources are directed to that end and also trying to keep the economic and social  framework intact until the crisis is over.

By the way have you heard that US conservatives reckons its all a plot  to undermine the Trump administration ? Yep.  It all comes back to Numero One

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/trump-backers-coronavirus-conspiracy-117781

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ose-their-bearings-in-the-coronavirus-fallout


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## Value Collector (29 February 2020)

There is a bigger threat.


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## qldfrog (29 February 2020)

basilio said:


> I don't think "normal" financial analysis is  any way appropriate to use when considering the economic consequences of this rapidly spreading  virus. Why ?
> 
> 1) It won't be dealt with by economic  levers like  interest rate cuts central bank intervention. You can't just restart economic activity if  whole regions are  closed down or more importantly industries can't operate because particular components are now unavailable
> 2) The inter connectivity between countries means financial problems in one economy will cascade into others very quickly. Smurfs post outlining the knock on effect of company A to B to C to D  is will come into effect
> ...



Agree about all numbered points, less about the mandatory trump bashing.i wonder how many billions has been saved in the US by Trump war on China. Lots of companies in the us had to redefine their supply route due to the trade war and must be very happy now
So i think Trump trade war was a very good timing in retrospect.
I obviously can not expect you to acknowledge this.
Part of a growing diversification hopefully
 but i do not hold much hope as within 5y of gfc, the same mistakes were done again


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 February 2020)

basilio said:


> It won't be dealt with by economic  levers like  interest rate cuts central bank intervention. You can't just restart economic activity if  whole regions are  closed down or more importantly industries can't operate because particular components are now unavailable




Agreed and for the record I’ve come across similar scenarios personally when dealing with those who see literally everything as a political or at best financial problem and who take physical stuff for granted.

The idea that something is physically not available, at any price, is anathema to many.

If what you need is a bridge, a physical one to run cars or trains across, well that’s what you need. No amount or money will get the train across the valley without first constructing a bridge. If the bridge costs $50 million well then it costs $50 million but the money alone is useless, all it does is tick one of the boxes which, if they’ve all ticked, enable you to build the bridge which is what you need.

The concept of physical problems not fixed by money alone is one that seems to be often overlooked but in the real world, well finding the money is often the easiest bit.


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## SirRumpole (29 February 2020)

Value Collector said:


> There is a bigger threat.





Yes, very scary.

Over use of antibiotics in animal husbandry, as well as treating infections in humans is a real problem.

I can see rationing these drugs to be one of the few ways of dealing with their abuse.


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## MrChow (29 February 2020)

Interesting read on China GDP:

https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/asia/observations-on-chinese-gdp-growth-and-covid-19/


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## frugal.rock (29 February 2020)

basilio said:


> ...
> By the way have you heard that US conservatives reckons its all a plot  to undermine the Trump administration ? Yep.  It all comes back to Numero uno



Didn't Trump coin the t-shirt/ bumper sticker phrase;
"Admit nothing. 
Deny everything. 
Make counter accusations."?

Let's go back to the outbreak.
Known, 
virus outbreak tracked to a Wuhan fish market. 
Unknown,
The source, and whether released on purpose or accident.
The source is being made to look like it was from the nearby lab that had the virus, perhaps someone was lapse?
Perhaps it was released by a foreign
entity. Who knows.
Does any country stand to benefit from this situation? Time will tell.

F.Rock


----------



## MrChow (29 February 2020)

I'm not into conspiracy theories (especially ones that do more damage to the protagonist) but those Hong Kong protests really went away.


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## frugal.rock (29 February 2020)

The fact that the release is either accidental or not ain't a conspiracy.
Neither is the fact, that if it was released on purpose, the reasons behind it and who dunnit, are of public interest.
F.Rock


----------



## qldfrog (29 February 2020)

If you follow some of my post, i think it is nearly a given that it is a lab escapee with plenty of evidence.yes it could have been release but would make no sense.crazu suicidal at worst but much more probably just an accident.it does not really matter as once the box is open.....
Europe starts to be economically affected with professional meetings cancelled..and probably soon sport meetings with first school closures in France for example


----------



## basilio (29 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Agree about all numbered points, _less about the mandatory trump bashing_.i




Not what the media is saying at all. The article refers to conservative Trump supporters who are screaming that  deep state Democrats  are over hyping the dangers of the virus to undermine their God.  Check out the story.

Just  Total Poisonous  Insanity..


----------



## basilio (29 February 2020)

Very interesting story of Corona Virus infection and recovery from a person in Wuhan.
Check out the sophisticated medical interventions  the guy received.  I wonder how well other countries will replicate this level of medical attention ?

*To hell and back’: my three weeks suffering from coronavirus *
Tiger Ye, 21, lives in Wuhan and started showing symptoms in mid-January. Here he tells the story of his illness and recovery
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ack-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus


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## qldfrog (29 February 2020)

basilio said:


> Not what the media is saying at all. The article refers to conservative Trump supporters who are screaming that  deep state Democrats  are over hyping the dangers of the virus to undermine their God.  Check out the story.
> 
> Just  Total Poisonous  Insanity..



Don't worry the leftists were saying it was a big pharma ramp up... interesting article on the recovered guy, notice he was prescribed both western and Chinese medecines, and it was pretty serious while he is 21!


----------



## Muschu (29 February 2020)

https://www.6pr.com.au/podcast/dont-panic-about-the-coronavirus/


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## Smurf1976 (1 March 2020)

The one thing I think can be said with  reasonable certainty is that this is a turning point event.

Sudden unexpected disasters tend to produce permanent change and this is in that category.

11 September 2001, Chernobyl, the Concorde crash, the dropping of atomic bombs on Japan at the end of WW2 and various others are all in that category. Sudden, completely unexpected by virtually everyone, some sort of permanent change resulted.

This is not the end of the world, nor were any of those other things, but it’s too big to be simply glossed over.

Some sort of effectively permanent impacts will arise, the question being what?


----------



## MrChow (1 March 2020)

Apple back to 100% operations in China according to Tim Cook.

Significant GDP bounce back expected there Q2 vs Q1.

90% decline in new cases in China 3 weeks after peaking, with just 4 new cases coming outside of the Hubei Province yesterday.

The U.S would need 6000 deaths within 4 months just to match 1/10th of the annual flu season. 

There seems to be a mismatch of human reaction to numbers in my interpretation.

I still think we'll push the -20% mark on the markets just due to narrative and fear but would be very surprised if it's not fully recovered within 12 months.


----------



## fergee (1 March 2020)

Just heard from a friend who works for a large international foot wear brand in Tokyo that they have been asked not to come to work until the 15th March. Things are stepping up a couple of gears here now.

Although I find the reported numbers of infected in Japan as strangely low and not increasing with the same speed as we are seeing in South Korea and other parts of world which to me is a little suspect.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> I still think we'll push the -20% mark on the markets just due to narrative and fear but would be very surprised if it's not fully recovered within 12 months.



Agreed so far as financial markets are concerned.

In a broader sense, outside the markets, I do expect some lasting impacts though. The scale of the event is too big for governments and the management of various corporations to not at least try to be seen to have done something to lower future risk. What that will be I really don't know but it's too big to just sweep it under the carpet and ignore it I think.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 March 2020)

fergee said:


> Although I find the reported numbers of infected in Japan as strangely low and not increasing with the same speed as we are seeing in South Korea and other parts of world which to me is a little suspect.



I see that France has now reached 100 infections.

I'm not French, only ever been there as a tourist, but I'd put a fair bit of faith in their numbers given they're a developed country and have no obvious reason why they'd want to hide it. Point being they're having a fairly rapid increase as are many places.

For the others, well Iran has ongoing tensions with the US and allies so I guess it's possible that their figures could be skewed either by lack of adequate medical equipment or by political factors. Possible, I can't prove it, just noting the circumstances there could create some difficulties.

South Korea and Italy both are reporting fairly large numbers and both presumably have the means to do it fairly accurately.

The good news though is that 48% of cases are now recovered including 11 out of 25 in Australia. Bad news = 2978 reported deaths including 1 in Australia so the death rate's at 3.43% globally.


----------



## fergee (1 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I see that France has now reached 100 infections.
> 
> I'm not French, only ever been there as a tourist, but I'd put a fair bit of faith in their numbers given they're a developed country and have no obvious reason why they'd want to hide it. Point being they're having a fairly rapid increase as are many places.
> 
> ...




I am more inclined to trust the numbers from France and Italy as the structure of the EU makes it less likely for them to hide it conversely harder to contain too.


----------



## brty (1 March 2020)

Just for those that think this is not bad, not like the flu etc, a few simple numbers....

Australia has just 2000 ICU beds. Serious cases of Coronavirus are running at about 15% with 5% critical. You would need one of those beds if serious, and probably intubated and ventilated if critical, which is a subset of available ICU beds.

A city like Melbourne or Sydney would have about 400 ICU beds each. If each of those cities gets just 3,000 cases, ie less than 6 people in every 10,000, then all the ICU beds would be fully occupied. This would allow none for serious car accidents, heart attacks etc.

This virus is spread by aerosols and can be spread by asymptomatic carriers, plus it's possible to be re-infected like the Japanese tourist guide, and reports of it happening in China.

It is not the flu nor SARS, yet our health care administrators are treating it poorly. The health salon on the Gold Coast where the beautician brought the virus back from Iran, is a classic case of generals fighting the last war. They have tested and observed all the other staff at the salon to be clear of the virus (currently), but instead of putting them in quarantine, are allowing them to circulate. To me that is an unbelievably naive decision, given evidence coming in from all over the world.

When, not if governments realise they have been incorrect with their stance on this virus, they are likely to over-react IMHO, just like in China. Our hospitals will be swamped with a very small proportion of the population getting this virus. 

The economic dislocation of this virus is already massive and likely to get much worse before it gets better. The peak of disruption is still probably weeks or months away.


----------



## macca (1 March 2020)

brty said:


> Just for those that think this is not bad, not like the flu etc, a few simple numbers....
> 
> Australia has just 2000 ICU beds. Serious cases of Coronavirus are running at about 15% with 5% critical. You would need one of those beds if serious, and probably intubated and ventilated if critical, which is a subset of available ICU beds.
> 
> ...




As she has proven to be positive then certainly anyone who spent extended time with her should be in quarantine, other staff should definitely all be in quarantine for 14 days


----------



## IFocus (1 March 2020)

So the risks going forward  are supply and demand shocks, businesses going bankrupt due to no or falling cash flows, bonds becoming worthless, falling confidence, governments unable or slow to act.  

Jobless to rise causing further pain.

Australian economy likely to show contraction for a couple of quarters in a low interest rate environment. 

This could get messy.


----------



## sptrawler (1 March 2020)

IMO by now the Government will know what the virus is and will know whether it can be controlled.
At some point in the future, they will have to decide whether further control is pointless or worth the effort.
How far ahead that is, will decide how much of an economic impact it will have.
So when the control regime is relaxed, should give a good indicator as to which companies will be affected.
The relocating of several cruise ships to Australia, will save the ar$e of some travel agents, for now.
If one of those ships gets an outbreak, it is over and out for travel agents IMO.
Several other companies that can stockpile and have cash to carry the payroll will be fine, others that are relying on product sale cashflow will be caught.
So when the security procedures are relaxed is going to be paramount, to those who are hanging tough.
Sounds obvious, but cash at hand or redraw facilities, quoted in the last financial statements become much more pertinent.


----------



## basilio (1 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> So when the security procedures are relaxed is going to be paramount, to those who are hanging tough.
> Sounds obvious, but cash at hand or redraw facilities, quoted in the last financial statements become much more pertinent.




I see your point..but I wonder ?

How far will a business go to stay solvent if it believes  there are months of  closure, supply chain problems whatever ?

Most of us know from experience there are a number of operations that just close up shop to  drop creditors, bank debts and income tax liability. I wonder how many legit businesses will draw down accumulated savings and owners equity before pulling the pin ? Be interesting to see.


----------



## fergee (1 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I see your point..but I wonder ?
> 
> How far will a business go to stay solvent if it believes  there are months of  closure, supply chain problems whatever ?
> 
> Most of us know from experience there are a number of operations that just close up shop to  drop creditors, bank debts and income tax liability. I wonder how many legit businesses will draw down accumulated savings and owners equity before pulling the pin ? Be interesting to see.




I was talking to my brother in Adelaide last night and he said this summer has been really tough at the cafe he owns. I told him he should go talk to his land lord and negotiate a deal on the rent so as he can stay solvent if things really turn to custard. Yeah the landlord will lose out on some coin but he will keep a loyal tenant. The normal rules and expectations for business will go out the window a lot of SME's are cash strapped right now, everyone needs to pool together and take haircuts together to survive imo


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## IFocus (1 March 2020)

Public health will be the initial driver and containment is about slowing the progression not avoiding infection so health service cope in some sort of way.

At some point economics will be a consideration if it can be sold politically. 

World wide all governments will have this conundrum.

I don't see anyway forward that isnt a wait and see game.


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## barney (1 March 2020)

fergee said:


> everyone needs to pool together and take haircuts together to survive imo




Exactly what I was just thinking  ….. I have no idea how to judge the pros and cons of said 'haircuts', but if the depth of this this problem is potentially as large as it is seems, early haircuts (although a massive up front expense to many businesses/countries in lost revenue) could amount to a fraction of what the final cost (not only financial) might be if we try and 'band-aid' the issue by trying to contain it with less than productive protections.

Its obviously too late to 'shut the world down' for a month or two … but go back a month or so and do that and the spread would probably be manageable now (unrealistic I know, but just trying to make a point) 

How far do we (with a global concern in mind) let the problem progress before we decide down the track that we should have been more pro-active earlier to stop the spread?  

I realise the above comments may be 'pie in the sky' thinking given the problem is global, but restriction of any problem is a hell of a lot easier when that problem is small and/or in its early stages. 

The big question is of course  … Is the problem still in the early stages  Tough decisions may be required from here.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I see your point..but I wonder ?
> 
> How far will a business go to stay solvent if it believes there are months of closure, supply chain problems whatever ?




Someone like Coles will tough it out for sure. They'll still have something to sell in the supermarkets even if a few specific items aren't available and for their other shops they'll sort something, grin and bear it, whatever. 

Same in other industries. BHP or Rio Tinto won't go bust even if commodity prices do fall in a hole. Worst case they might shut some individual mines and put them on care & maintenance until things improve but the company will survive.

Small shops and small miners though, well they're a very different story.....

Point being the big companies like that are much better placed than the small ones.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 March 2020)

Look, I love the first world health system we have here. Once you get past ED, care is, in my experience, exemplary. But I recognise the cost constraints.

With the recent death in Perth, Australia's first ( he came off the Diamond Princess) the care over seven days was thus:
-Careflight from Darwin to Perth
-Hospitalised in isolation
-  ICU  isolationunit, in a negative pressure room


> Dr Robertson said the man's family was also able to speak to him on Saturday night by phone or through the glass in the isolation unit before he died this morning. He said no members of the public had been put at risk by the man's diagnosis.
> 
> "He was identified very early on, when he was on the flight back from the Diamond Princess, he was put in isolation, he was transferred to us, and obviously placed in isolation on arrival. "He's been managed in isolation ever since … there's no risk to the general community or to staff.





> "He was in a negative pressure room and then in intensive care and they were very confident that the protection equipment they were using was more than adequate



_Just not sure how many the system can deal with. No wonder all attempts are to prevent it getting a hold. Wonder what the winter season will bring? (Coincidence that the virus started and spread Nov/ Dec in nth hemisphere?)_


----------



## fergee (1 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Look, I love the first world health system we have here. Once you get past ED, care is, in my experience, exemplary. But I recognise the cost constraints.
> 
> With the recent death in Perth, Australia's first ( he came off the Diamond Princess) the care over seven days was thus:
> -Careflight from Darwin to Perth
> ...




It is a natural time of year for flu to break out in he northern hemisphere. Until proven otherwise this was a natural occurrence just like all the plagues and viruses that have occurred in the millennia's before it.

I don think our(NZ&AUS) health care systems will handle this well, from what I have seen living in both countries, they will get maxed out very quickly.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 March 2020)

fergee said:


> It is a natural time of year for flu to break out in he northern hemisphere. Until proven otherwise this was a natural occurrence just like all the plagues and viruses that have occurred in the millennia's before it.




In that regard probably a bit unfortunate that we're seeing relatively cool and wet weather in parts of Australia. Obviously there are many downsides to droughts and heatwaves but they do at least seem to discourage the spread of colds and flu so if we've got to have one sometime, well it's a shame it happened earlier rather than now if that makes sense.



> I don think our(NZ&AUS) health care systems will handle this well, from what I have seen living in both countries, they will get maxed out very quickly.



I'm no doctor but my observation is that there's stuff all spare capacity in the system so even a modest increase in demand amounts to an emergency situation.


----------



## fergee (2 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm no doctor but my observation is that there's stuff all spare capacity in the system so even a modest increase in demand amounts to an emergency situation.




There hasn't been much spare capacity for decades in NZ and Aus.

From what I have heard from the boys back home it has been the hottest driest summer for a long time.

caveat: I have had a couple beevies tonight before posting, truth be told

But I honestly think the difference between other countries and AUS/NZ is our spirit.

When some one has broken down on the side of the road we stop ask them if they're ok and give em a hand to fix their car or give them a ride to the gasey.

If some one trips and falls in the street we ask them if they are ok ok and help em up.

Our spirit of helping helping strangers like they were our kin is something I have never seen in my travels. It is unique to us and it makes us strong and it is why I think we will get through this blip in history better than anyone else.

ANZAC Forever forever ANZAC's

fergee


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 March 2020)

978 reported cases in Iran now.

At this rate they're going to overtake Italy very soon and could well overtake South Korea too. Just a few days ago there were very few cases in Iran but it seems to be spreading extremely rapidly at the moment.

Also notable that there's now 117 in Germany so it's increasing quickly there too.

There's no chance of effectively containing this now. At best we might be able to delay the inevitable but that would require basically a global lockdown and I can't see that happening.


----------



## MrChow (2 March 2020)

U.S Flu season begins in about October each year.

History of when previous epidemics peaked in the U.S:

1918 Spanish Flu - November
1957 Asian Flu - October
1968 Hong Kong Flu - December

So the pattern seems to be accumulate latency then apply a mortality multiplier  from seasonality later in the calendar year.  Perhaps this thing won't be over until we circle back around to our end of Summer again.

Warmer regions seem to be escaping the brunt of Coronavirus at the moment - South America, Africa, Oceania, while Tehran (9 degrees), Seoul (3 degrees), Rome (13 degrees) are seeing the biggest spread.


----------



## joeno (2 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> The U.S would need 6000 deaths within 4 months just to match 1/10th of the annual flu season.
> 
> There seems to be a mismatch of human reaction to numbers in my interpretation.
> 
> I still think we'll push the -20% mark on the markets just due to narrative and fear but would be very surprised if it's not fully recovered within 12 months.




There's "what you'd like" and reality. Yeah the death toll is not huge. Even in China it's not huge. IMO they should've never quarantined people in China in the first place. Just let people do whatever they want to do. Cause sure as hell nobody else in the world is going as far with regards to their own populace. It's the fear, closing borders, closing schools, mutual mistrust and racism (dare i say that word if I'm not black/muslim). It's not a mild humanitarian crisis, a significant geopolitical crisis and a huge economic crisis.


----------



## ducati916 (2 March 2020)

Businesses are clearly going to feel the impact. Due to their impaired Balance Sheets, they will tip the economy into another recession through bankruptcy.

In the US 97% of firms in S&P500 presented at least one metric of performance that was inconsistent with GAAP.

'Goodwill' accounting in S&P500 firms stands at $3.6T

Over 60% of Mergers were financed with loans that include 'add-backs', which allow firms to ignore inconvenient costs, through assuming the combined firm will make savings.

In the US 1/8 companies earns less than their interest payments (1/14 in 2007, BIS data). A recession (only 50% of the 2007/2009) could result in $19T of corporate debt being owed by these firms (40% of the total).

In Europe non-financial corporate debt stands at 110% of GDP (90% in 2007).

Remember the REPO fiasco last year? That was the warning sign that liquidity is simply not available at any price.

jog on
duc


----------



## basilio (2 March 2020)

fergee said:


> I was talking to my brother in Adelaide last night and he said this summer has been really tough at the cafe he owns. I told him he should go talk to his land lord and negotiate a deal on the rent so as he can stay solvent if things really turn to custard. Yeah the landlord will lose out on some coin but he will keep a loyal tenant. The normal rules and expectations for business will go out the window a lot of SME's are cash strapped right now, everyone needs to pool together and take haircuts together to survive imo





I like that approach. It certainly makes sense . With constructive landlords, creditors and so on I can see it being the way to go.

Again I wonder how  more mercenary institutions might approach the situation? In fact this is probably a good time to have a  public conversation with the larger financial institutions on their approach to customers who will be under pressure. Any feedback from anyone here ?


----------



## IFocus (2 March 2020)

So should you contract the virus sooner rather than later in case you need treatment?


----------



## basilio (2 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> So should you contract the virus sooner rather than later in case you need treatment?




Almost certainly   Seems clear that if things get sticky it will be impossible to treat the 100 serious illness as well as the first dozen.


----------



## satanoperca (2 March 2020)

I believe there will be some excellent buying opportunities arise in the coming months.

This is just a short term disruption in a long term game.

I also believe we will see that the mortality rate is a lot lower in Western countries.

The virus is here, it has spread, nothing can be done know, it will impact on the elderly the most.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> So should you contract the virus sooner rather than later in case you need treatment?



You can get it more then once....
Apparently the antibodies you produce don't last long after you get it


----------



## IFocus (2 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> You can get it more then once....
> Apparently the antibodies you produce don't last long after you get it




14% reinfection rate is one number I have seen but reported 2nd time around its not as bad


----------



## qldfrog (2 March 2020)

Or is it that it mutates rapidly?
Good luck vaccine


moXJO said:


> You can get it more then once....
> Apparently the antibodies you produce don't last long after you get it



Actually in both case...good luck vaccine...


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> 14% reinfection rate is one number I have seen but reported 2nd time around its not as bad



Depends on time between. Antibodies apparently don't last long. 

If you are over 60 I'd say once is bad enough. I'd simply do the best to boost your immune system through a bit of healthy living now. Do the best to prolong the time to exposure while getting fit. 
Then when you do get it, you are tackling it in a better position. First time round shouldn't be as bad.


----------



## qldfrog (2 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> If you are over 60 I'd say once is bad enough. I'd simply do the best to boost your immune system through a bit of healthy living now. Do the best to prolong the time to exposure while getting fit.



Or even below 60...
And it is not the time to get the good old flu, or a heart attack car accident


----------



## sptrawler (2 March 2020)

I wonder how long before the mining sector starts to show the strain?


----------



## wayneL (2 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> 14% reinfection rate is one number I have seen but reported 2nd time around its not as bad



Do you have a cite for this? As the first infection seems to have been around November last year, as far as I can ascertain, where has this information come from, please?


----------



## kenny (2 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Almost certainly   Seems clear that if things get sticky it will be impossible to treat the 100 serious illness as well as the first dozen.



Except the chance of re-infection is similar to an initial one. You'll just have a file at the hospital already


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 March 2020)

And housing stress...  Soon as unemployment rises, the _two repayments from bankruptcy _home owners (in collaboration with a friendly bank) will be in a world of pain. It's always around the margins. (Not even thinking about those with geared investment properties).


----------



## basilio (2 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And housing stress...  Soon as unemployment rises, the _two repayments from bankruptcy _home owners (in collaboration with a friendly bank) will be in a world of pain. It's always around the margins. (Not even thinking about those with geared investment properties).




The issue of world wide debt...... 
This  analysis explores how that will magnify the consequences

*Coronavirus shook the foundations of a global stock market powered by debt*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...tock-market-after-boom-built-by-debt/12015192


----------



## againsthegrain (2 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And housing stress...  Soon as unemployment rises, the _two repayments from bankruptcy _home owners (in collaboration with a friendly bank) will be in a world of pain. It's always around the margins. (Not even thinking about those with geared investment properties).




only 3 more possible interest rate drops, being so low the banks cannot possibly pass on full drops.   Drop in the ocean not a lifeline for any struggling with repayments


----------



## IFocus (2 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Do you have a cite for this? As the first infection seems to have been around November last year, as far as I can ascertain, where has this information come from, please?




Its a Chinese number reported so not to be relied upon will see if I can find it.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2020)

I wonder if it's a jobs boom for the healthy temp workers?


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> only 3 more possible interest rate drops, being so low the banks cannot possibly pass on full drops.   Drop in the ocean not a lifeline for any struggling with repayments



Double whammy with the new cash laws locking you into banks. Lose money on deposits and your house.


----------



## IFocus (2 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Do you have a cite for this? As the first infection seems to have been around November last year, as far as I can ascertain, where has this information come from, please?




Caveat lector


"Song Tie, vice director of the local disease control center in southern China’s Guangdong province, told a media briefing on Wednesday that as many as 14% of discharged patients in the province have tested positive again and had returned to hospitals for observation."


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2020)

I didn't realise how far xjo and xao had run up. We must have been due for a fall regardless of covid or not.


----------



## qldfrog (2 March 2020)

Woolies Keperra in  Brisbane this morning
No more cheap paracetamol or ibuprofen, no more hand disinfectant, rice mostly gone as was toilet paper.no mask left at Bunnings


----------



## No Trust (2 March 2020)

YIKES !!!



qldfrog said:


> Woolies Keperra in  Brisbane this morning
> No more cheap paracetamol or ibuprofen, no more hand disinfectant, rice mostly gone as was toilet paper.no mask left at Bunnings


----------



## MrChow (2 March 2020)

Was hoping to hold an Asian Diahrrea party without ventilation at Keperra this weekend!  Plans spoiled.


----------



## basilio (2 March 2020)

So the market dropped like a stone on opening but managed to recover  for the All Ords to be "just " 50 points down.

Does that suggest the market has reached its low point and that maybe its time to buy back in ?

Maybe...  IMV I don't believe we have seen anyway near the amount of unwinding of business activity that one  might conceivably expect  if the virus spreads and we follow the path of China, Sth Korea, Italy et al. If that is the case then in the next 1-3 months there will be big pressures on businesses, building,  banks, retail .  I think that will pass through with new profit guidance's and many possible business closures.

Unemployment  will jump and with the risk of involuntary quarantine the risk to retail spend and home payments can only increase.

I think the Government has to take steps to underwrite the economic survival (not profitability..) on business and workers to get over this hump.  As a first  concurrent step I  think senior  management should at the least take a very big salary cut .  If you have been on multi millions dollar package for a few years you can well afford to leave something behind for the business and staff.


----------



## Sdajii (2 March 2020)

basilio said:


> So the market dropped like a stone on opening but managed to recover  for the All Ords to be "just " 50 points down.
> 
> Does that suggest the market has reached its low point and that maybe its time to buy back in ?
> 
> ...




I think we're still a long way from the bottom, and as always with these big movements, the bottom won't be clear until weeks or months after it's hit. You're not going to identify it intraday.

It's still early days for Mr. Corona; it's going to get much worse before it gets better.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 March 2020)

On the news there's someone in Tasmania with it now so add that to the list with cases previously reported in Qld, NSW, Vic, SA, WA.

The one in Tas had apparently traveled from Iran via Malaysia and Melbourne so that's 3 flights all up and they'll no doubt have been reasonably close to at least a few people whilst at Melbourne airport given that they'll have landed from an international flight then walked to the other end of the airport to check-in for and then board a domestic flight from Melbourne to Launceston.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/coronavirus-postive-test-in-tasmania/12017662

It's spreading yes.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Does that suggest the market has reached its low point and that maybe its time to buy back in ?



I've no idea whether or not dead cats actually bounce, and I've no intention of testing that theory although I note that my live and healthy cat seems to like jumping off the roof and lands in the garden, but this would be the "dead cat bounce" I think.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've no idea whether or not dead cats actually bounce, and I've no intention of testing that theory although I note that my live and healthy cat seems to like jumping off the roof and lands in the garden, but this would be the "dead cat bounce" I think.




I's say that could be detrimental to cats as someone might actually try the experiment.

I'd suggest changing the saying to "dead stockbroker bounce".


----------



## MrChow (2 March 2020)

Bit of History from 2009:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly 61 million people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths. Worldwide, up to 575,400 people died from pandemic swine flu.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2020)

Yum Cha Down!
Oh the humanity....




> A popular Sydney Chinese restaurant famed for its yum cha has collapsed as the sales slump from the coronavirus outbreak begins to claim its first major victims.
> 
> Parramatta Phoenix, based in the suburb’s Westfield Shopping Centre, was placed into voluntary administration this morning. A related business, Darlinghurst Asian fusion restaurant Mister Dee’s Kitchen, has gone into liquidation.







Restaurants are already doing it tough. Can't imagine many people eating out or ordering food during an outbreak. Not at the risk of someone sneezing/touching their food.


----------



## MrChow (2 March 2020)

My high conviction prediction is that there will be a lull over the Summer months in the U.S and Europe and ultimately peak in October-December at the start of flu season.

If that timing occurs it has the possibility to become a huge curveball in the November election.


----------



## Knobby22 (2 March 2020)

It's not the flu though. I don't believe it will be slowed by warm weather. Look at Iran.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It's not the flu though. I don't believe it will be slowed by warm weather. Look at Iran.




It's currently 11 degrees in Tehran at 3pm with an overnight low of 2 degrees forecast tonight. 

That's not particularly warm so I don't see how it discredits the idea that warm weather could slow the virus?


----------



## Knobby22 (2 March 2020)

Yea it doesn't.


----------



## moXJO (3 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Yea it doesn't.



I heard it does?


----------



## moXJO (3 March 2020)

On another note. I am now officially bored of coronavirus. Queue dead cat for bouncing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 March 2020)

So just days ago we had the Australian Government stalling in regard to stopping flights from China and we're still allowing people in from other highly infected regions.

All good we're told, nothing to worry about.

So we ended up with the following because of yet another slow reaction from government it seems and once again the states and ordinary people are left to sort out the mess and deal with the consequences.



> People suspected of having coronavirus could be immediately detained by authorities, and face arrest for the first time if they defy orders, under tough new powers to be rushed into law on Tuesday.




https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news...s/news-story/660df734a7564c3d636fefed49e6a574

We need to learn a lesson from all this and that lesson is that failing to take a scientific approach is a sure way to stuff things economically. Short term thinking doesn't cut it.


----------



## JoelA (3 March 2020)

Anyone think the mining company’s will be hit even more from this?


----------



## sptrawler (3 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> On another note. I am now officially bored of coronavirus. Queue dead cat for bouncing.



I think I just saw it go past my window.
Is this a profit taking day? I suppose it depends how high the cat goes.


----------



## satanoperca (3 March 2020)

This event is so over baked it is ridiculous.
Pollies saying we shouldn't shake hands, last I checked, I don't lick my hand after shaking someone elses, well I think I don't.

Markets correcting, well that is bound to happen.

Maybe the RBA is a virus, seems like 100% chance of another rate cut today, talk about distroying the economy, if consumer confidence was at an all time low, lets give it another kick in the guts by dropping IR's even lower.

Thank the universe we have the best govnut economic managers in the world.

Good news we only will have 2 more cuts left and then we are stuffed.


----------



## MrChow (3 March 2020)

Since we're talking big moves today.

6000 Americans died from Swine Flu between April 2009-2010 and in these 12 months the SP500 gained +40% and recovered almost all of the GDP lost from the GFC.

Doesn't seem possible unless given context that it's just a 10% variation on the average flu season which is a fluctuation that happens naturally anyway.


----------



## Knobby22 (3 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Since we're talking big moves today.
> 
> 6000 Americans died from Swine Flu between April 2009-2010 and in these 12 months the SP500 gained +40% and recovered almost all of the GDP lost from the GFC.
> 
> Doesn't seem possible unless given context that it's just a 10% variation on the average flu season which is a fluctuation that happens naturally anyway.




It really depends how many people get it, how well it is controlled. With a 0.5% death rate (and many are reporting more than this)you could be looking at something like 500,000 deaths in the USA if it takes off if 1/3 of the population gets it.
Unlike the swine flu you can't inoculate. China and South Korea have shown it can be controlled if resources are put into it.

Why do you say a 10% variation?


----------



## satanoperca (3 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It really depends how many people get it, how well it is controlled. With a 0.5% death rate (and many are reporting more than this)you could be looking at something like 500,000 deaths in the USA if it takes off if 1/3 of the population gets it.



1/3 population, 0.5 mortality rate = 0.16% of their population
100% of the population, 0.5% mort rate = 0.5% of their population.
Wonder if it will kill more Trumps supporters and could effect his reelection?


----------



## Knobby22 (3 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> 1/3 population, 0.5 mortality rate = 0.16% of their population
> 100% of the population, 0.5% mort rate = 0.5% of their population.
> Wonder if it will kill more Trumps supporters and could effect his reelection?



What if Bernie Sanders, Biden or Trump caught it? All old men. 78,77,73


----------



## satanoperca (3 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> What if Bernie Sanders, Biden or Trump caught it? All old men. 78,77,73



Time for some fresh blood in US politics.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I don't lick my hand after shaking someone elses, well I think I don't.




Many do touch their face however sometime prior to washing their hands.

Putting glasses on, adjusting tie or collar, drinking or eating, blowing nose, scratching an itch etc - all are to be avoided after shaking someone’s hand and prior to washing your own.


----------



## satanoperca (3 March 2020)

The reality is, they are not going to stop this, just like the flu virus, it will spread through our communities.

Smurf, you better not fill up the car, those bowser handles have more germs than a $1 Thai hooker and when you go to pay, don't pay in cash and get change, money is also filthy dirty.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Smurf, you better not fill up the car, those bowser handles have more germs than a $1 Thai hooker and when you go to pay, don't pay in cash and get change, money is also filthy dirty.



Doing those things isn't the problem so long as you don't then put your hands on your face or on anything going into or near your mouth, eyes, nose.

The particular problem with a handshake is a social one in that people generally won't see it as a trigger to then go and wash their own hands.


----------



## macca (3 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Doing those things isn't the problem so long as you don't then put your hands on your face or on anything going into or near your mouth, eyes, nose.
> 
> The particular problem with a handshake is a social one in that people generally won't see it as a trigger to then go and wash their own hands.




Hygeine is vital, as has been known since Florence Nightingale, washing our hands is the simple and most effective way of stopping the spread of germs.

Unfortunately, even our doctors and nurses often need to be reminded of this in hospitals and surgeries.


----------



## MovingAverage (3 March 2020)

Seriously...people are idiots!!! I'm a simple man (and my wife also tells me I'm a grump old man) but I just don't understand the mindset that engulfs people to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use for 10 lifetimes because of Corona....I just don't get it. Does Corona virus give people a really bad case of the shits or something 'cause I'm struggling to understand why the need to buy so bloody much? I walked into a major Sydney Woolworths supermarket today to find the shelves completely stripped bare of all toilet paper. The manager tells me they are expecting a huge crowd at their doors when they open at 8am tomorrow morning to buy all of their new delivery of toilet rolls. Feel free to flame me folks but I maintain people are idiots


----------



## satanoperca (3 March 2020)

F--k yes, how much toilet paper do you need unless you have eaten bad curry.


----------



## MovingAverage (3 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F--k yes, how much toilet paper do you need unless you have eaten bad curry.


----------



## qldfrog (3 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Seriously...people are idiots!!! I'm a simple man (and my wife also tells me I'm a grump old man) but I just don't understand the mindset that engulfs people to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use for 10 lifetimes because of Corona....I just don't get it. I walked into a major Sydney Woolworths supermarket today to find the shelves completely stripped bare of all toilet paper. The manager tells me they are expecting a huge crowd at their doors when they open at 8am tomorrow morning to buy all of their new delivery of toilet rolls. Feel free to flame me folks but I maintain people are idiots
> View attachment 100944



very similar to stock trading: 
you do not win by being right, you win by being ahead of the (stupid I agree) masses irrespective of the P/E;
So now that you can not buy rice, or toilet paper: who is better off? the lemmings stockpiling TP under their beds ?
or you the sensible one who ends up cuttings pages from his latest paper to head to the toilet next month?

When the crisis starts (I would define that point when the stress on the health system become so big it is hard to find a bed when needed), I expect to see the worst in humans.
You see already attacks on quarantine buses, on cruise tourists, what about rumours of infections etc
can get nasty very quickly


----------



## MovingAverage (3 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> or you the sensible one who ends up cuttings pages from his latest paper to head to the toilet next month?




I got a Japanese style dunny so I'm good...just as well 'cause I haven't bought a paper in years--get all my news online so cutting virtual pages out of an ipad would be a real challenge not too mention painful


----------



## moXJO (3 March 2020)

Great I need to go buy some toilet paper as well.

Well since there is no paper in the coronapocalypse good time to actually wash yourselves you grubby animals:

https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Bidet-D...ispr=1&hash=item1a8fb0881e:g:M6oAAOSwj-5eJ-tR


----------



## macca (3 March 2020)

I guess we will just have to hold on and wait and see how it pans out


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use



 cheaper than Kleenex, basically


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 March 2020)

_*"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"
*
we learn nothing_


----------



## sptrawler (3 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Seriously...people are idiots!!! I'm a simple man (and my wife also tells me I'm a grump old man) but I just don't understand the mindset that engulfs people to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use for 10 lifetimes because of Corona....I just don't get it. Does Corona virus give people a really bad case of the shits or something 'cause I'm struggling to understand why the need to buy so bloody much? I walked into a major Sydney Woolworths supermarket today to find the shelves completely stripped bare of all toilet paper. The manager tells me they are expecting a huge crowd at their doors when they open at 8am tomorrow morning to buy all of their new delivery of toilet rolls. Feel free to flame me folks but I maintain people are idiots.




It is a real laugh, there were people at our local woolies with trolleys stacked 5 high with multi pack toilet rolls, the wife couldn't believe it.
Also it wasn't just one person, nearly every shopper had multiple packs, just shows the power the media have.
I guess somewhere, there is toilet paper making factory, working flat out the workers must be getting some OT.


----------



## Country Lad (3 March 2020)

hhmm, so if this really catches on, everybody will have 2 years supply of toilet paper.  The lesson in all this must be to short toilet paper manufacturers.


----------



## CBerg (3 March 2020)

I saw a lady with a trolley full of nappies, like overbrimming full.
I've seen toilet paper for sale on Facebook buy/swap/sell groups today so maybe nappies are next, buy out the shop & hock off online.


----------



## macca (3 March 2020)

I suppose nappies are fair enough as they need to be they right size and brand for best fit but dunny paper is a bit of a laugh. 

The only reason there will be a shortage is that people are panic buying


----------



## moXJO (3 March 2020)

So had a chat at the local woolies.
No toilet paper.
No rice.
Baked beans still plenty.
Slight run on oats.
Soap antibacterial was all gone.
Milk had a run, which is weird.
Everything else was stocked apparently. 
But they said they have been very busy.


----------



## basilio (3 March 2020)

Is the cavalry coming ?  It will be interesting to see how serious this strategy is ... By now many thousands of people and businesses would have lost around a months wages .

And we havn't seen any  widespread closures of businesses.
Wouldn't want to wait too long to stem this hemorrhaging.

* Scott Morrison flags plan to safeguard Australian jobs amid coronavirus outbreak *
PM says government will soon release strategy to prop up businesses hit by the crisis amid concerns it could bring on a recession

Sarah Martin Chief political correspondent

 @msmarto 
Mon 2 Mar 2020 19.37 AEDT   Last modified on Mon 2 Mar 2020 19.43 AEDT

A plan to “keep Australians in jobs” in sectors affected by coronavirus will be released by the government within weeks, amid fears the ripple effect of the illness could trigger a recession.

Ahead of a meeting of the Reserve Bank on Tuesday, where the central bank is expected to cut interest rates for the fourth time since June last year, the prime minister told parliament that the government would soon release a plan aimed at propping up affected businesses as it dealt with the economic hit of the health crisis.

“We will be focusing on ensuring that we keep Australians in jobs, we keep businesses in business, and we keep investment flowing during what will be a very challenging time for the Australian economy,” Scott Morrison said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ard-australian-jobs-amid-coronavirus-outbreak


----------



## sptrawler (3 March 2020)

I thought it was an interesting article same as you Bas, it will be interesting to see what the Government plans and if it is effective.
I think holding off on stimulus untill now has been the right thing, the unwinding of the mining boom and rampant consumerism IMO has been handled well, the part in the article where it implies people have been paying down debt with previous tax and interest rate cuts was interesting IMO.
We on ASF thought that was so, in the retail wreckage thread.


----------



## Country Lad (3 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> ........ Queue dead cat for bouncing.




Some of us who have been trading for many years will no doubt remember many a dead cat bouncing.


----------



## moXJO (3 March 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Some of us who have been trading for many years will no doubt remember many a dead cat bouncing.
> 
> View attachment 100952
> View attachment 100953
> ...



This is probably the first time I haven't traded a "panic" for the better part of 20 something  years . I haven't even watched the xjo or xao.  

Interest rates today, expecting stimulus at some point. But it's the libs so it will be tighter than a fish's ar5hole. 
People are not in "panic" panic mode yet, but I'm sure the media will do it's thing.  
Our economy is going into this a bit shaky. And the affected supply lines will hamper business.
Gigantic home loans and people stretched to the limit. Not to mention tourism, students up to sht.
Then we had the bushfires.

News and market can turn on a dime though. And every time I can't see the upside, I get hit from left field.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 March 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Some of us who have been trading for many years will no doubt remember many a dead cat bounce.



and I'm a keen observer of the margin call selloff, for over-leveraged retail clients. Used to be at 1400hrs (2pm), but now I believe it is at 1100.
Lending Facility: "Your LVR is over 70. Can you put any money in the linked account?"
Bunny" "When do you need it?"
L.F. "Now"
Bunny "Would tomorrow do?"
and the lucky ones get the option; L.F. "What do you want us to sell down?"

And if the market is down next day, same again. Last week, with the successive 2-3% drops must have been particularly painful for some.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> very similar to stock trading:
> you do not win by being right, you win by being ahead of the (stupid I agree) masses irrespective of the P/E;



Indeed - regardless of the logic it's a case of buying toilet paper now or ending up without any.


----------



## basilio (3 March 2020)

Impressive graph.  Looks so much like a falling knife


----------



## sptrawler (3 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Indeed - regardless of the logic it's a case of buying toilet paper now or ending up without any.



People really have lost the plot, they must be scared witless, or something sounding similar.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> I saw a lady with a trolley full of nappies, like overbrimming full.



I noticed that paper towels aren't sold out but not many were left. Also paracetamol and other pain killers. 

Spotted someone with a whole trolley full of toilet paper. Amazing. 

That was this evening.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> People really have lost the plot, they must be scared witless, or something sounding similar.



Never did I ever think I'd live to see a panic to buy toilet paper.

Fuel possibly if there's a war etc, food or water perhaps in an emergency, torch batteries OK that's believable if there's a storm heading your way but toilet paper?

Of all products that would have been a long way down the list of things I'd have expected to see panic buying of.


----------



## sptrawler (3 March 2020)

I posted a few days ago, Kimberly Clarke may be a buy.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...production-runs-24-hours-20200303-p546hm.html
From the article:
Kimberly-Clark, which manufactures Kleenex toilet paper in Australia, said it had production lines running 24 hours a day at its South Australian factory to address the increased, short-term demand.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 March 2020)

The great toilet paper frenzy has how hit Jakarta:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...-govt-announces-first-covid-19-cases#cxrecs_s

Meanwhile toilet paper prices have surged, reaching $1000 per roll on the secondary market:



> 7 News reports one seller has tried his luck at advertising a 24-pack of 3 ply for $24,000.




https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/935b0fc0ee52f114507e7704d445aeba

So don't worry about gold, oil, interest rates, the Dollar or the All Ords, it seems that the real bull market is in something far more humble. Even a roll of Black & Gold brand will soon be worth a fortune if this keeps up. 

Now we just need a fund manager to get in on the action and launch an ETF which tracks the price of toilet paper. 

OK, the virus is potentially a very serious situation I get that but the great toilet paper mania of 2020 is one of the more bizarre outcomes of it thus far that's for sure.


----------



## MrChow (4 March 2020)

Do they realise they need to buy 6 months of food in order to use 6 months of toilet paper?


----------



## qldfrog (4 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Never did I ever think I'd live to see a panic to buy toilet paper.
> 
> Fuel possibly if there's a war etc, food or water perhaps in an emergency, torch batteries OK that's believable if there's a storm heading your way but toilet paper?
> 
> Of all products that would have been a long way down the list of things I'd have expected to see panic buying of.



To give an explanation, there are way to make homemade masks with paper toilet or paper towel so in China and HK, people stockpiled in these 2 items plus dried noodle, rice
Wisely for the millions who ended up with mandatory mask use and appartement blocks lockout..
I would assume local Chinese community copied the trend and it then snowballed
Whatever the reason, Monday on way past toilet paper and rice, there was 3 packs left of toilet paper, 3 or 4 for rice we took one just in case..it keeps..if i had been entrepreneurial i would have taken the lot and put it on ebay... social consciousness is bad for business


----------



## MrChow (4 March 2020)




----------



## CBerg (4 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The great toilet paper frenzy has how hit Jakarta:
> 
> https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...-govt-announces-first-covid-19-cases#cxrecs_s
> 
> ...



Having been through many cyclones and floods in my short time, people just panic. Didn’t the PM or this Ian Mackay bloke say make sure you’ve got enough for 2 weeks. Largely people don’t keep more than a couple of days full consumption on hand.

So whenever talking heads say stock up because of X it’s a glorious day for the Coles and Woolworths in the affected areas(which happen to possibly be everywhere in this situation).


----------



## MovingAverage (4 March 2020)

MrChow said:


>


----------



## moXJO (4 March 2020)

NSW seems to have uncontrolled hidden contagion. It's out of the bottle and in the community in numbers. 

Let's see how it goes....


----------



## moXJO (4 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> 14% reinfection rate is one number I have seen but reported 2nd time around its not as bad



Just to revisit this.

They seem to think the virus was just at low levels and the immune system was still very weak. Then the virus levels went up again. So it's possibly bi-phasic.
Nothing certain just yet.

With MERS antibodies were gone in 6 months.


----------



## sptrawler (4 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> NSW seems to have uncontrolled hidden contagion. It's out of the bottle and in the community in numbers.
> 
> Let's see how it goes....



With the amount of Australians that travel and the length of time the virus has been in circulation, the only reason we haven't got larger numbers will because no one was tested IMO.
It is just the law of averages, how many people who live in Australia's two major cities are of Chinese descent? How many would have traveled to China over the Christmas break?


----------



## CBerg (4 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> With the amount of Australians that travel and the length of time the virus has been in circulation, the only reason we haven't got larger numbers will because no one was tested IMO.
> It is just the law of averages, how many people who live in Australia's two major cities are of Chinese descent? How many would have traveled to China over the Christmas break?



This. I'd guess at least 50% of the population has been exposed to it with how popular leisure travel is not to mention work travel.

I cannot fathom why this simple fact doesn't calm people down. I'm not pretending the people that have died is not a tragedy nor that China effectively being shut for an extra month after their New Year celebrations won't impact things. I get not knowing scares people but life goes on, it always trudges on.


----------



## moXJO (4 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> With the amount of Australians that travel and the length of time the virus has been in circulation, the only reason we haven't got larger numbers will because no one was tested IMO.
> It is just the law of averages, how many people who live in Australia's two major cities are of Chinese descent? How many would have traveled to China over the Christmas break?



Chinese New year saw a lot of travel.  All we can do now is hope and buy toilet paper.


----------



## sptrawler (4 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> This. I'd guess at least 50% of the population has been exposed to it with how popular leisure travel is not to mention work travel.
> 
> I cannot fathom why this simple fact doesn't calm people down. I'm not pretending the people that have died is not a tragedy nor that China effectively being shut for an extra month after their New Year celebrations won't impact things. I get not knowing scares people but life goes on, it always trudges on.



Because the media love the 'glass half empty' approach IMO. 
It must improve circulation, it certainly improved toilet paper sales.


----------



## basilio (4 March 2020)

Worth a read.

*RBA interest rate cuts won't save the economy from coronavirus, but there are policies that may*
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated about 2 hours ago

An interest rate cut might be a bonus for homeowners with mortgages and give share investors a temporary sugar hit, but it's not going to do much to save the economy from coronavirus.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...help-coronavirus-hit-firms-economies/12020208


----------



## So_Cynical (4 March 2020)

To explain the toilet paper thing, disposable masks are basically impossible to buy now but most people who prepared a little like me (i bought 20 three weeks ago) have some but not enough, so you tear off 5 or 6 sheets of toilet paper and put it in or wrap your disposable mask in it and at the end of the day you throw away the toilet paper not the mask, this way 1 mask could last maybe 2 or 3 weeks.


----------



## againsthegrain (4 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Worth a read.
> 
> *RBA interest rate cuts won't save the economy from coronavirus, but there are policies that may*
> By business reporter Michael Janda
> ...




If these panickers thought a bit bigger and smarter they would realise toilet paper is thinking small.  If bad times come you will need cash on hand,  doing a toilet paper run is 1 thing,  imagine people doing bank runs lol

I know a few people that have been cashing out from atms and branches covertly for past few weeks,  2k here 4k there. One guy has 50k under his mattress now for a rainy day...  paranoia at its best


----------



## lusk (4 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> To explain the toilet paper thing, disposable masks are basically impossible to buy now but most people who prepared a little like me (i bought 20 three weeks ago) have some but not enough, so you tear off 5 or 6 sheets of toilet paper and put it in or wrap your disposable mask in it and at the end of the day you throw away the toilet paper not the mask, this way 1 mask could last maybe 2 or 3 weeks.




Probably best way to make sure you catch it, all the virus you collect for 2 to 3 weeks travels around with you waiting for you to touch your mask and forget to wash your hands.

Most people don't consider to wash their hands before putting it on or after taking it off.


----------



## Country Lad (4 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> To explain the toilet paper thing..............




I think it has more to do with the comments on social media and other places saying that we will all need to be in isolation at home at sometime so stock up on stuff.


----------



## MovingAverage (4 March 2020)

More insanity this morning at my local Woollies. After trying to buy some yesterday only to find the shelves had been stripped bare, I took the manager's advice and arrived at 8 am this morning when they opened. My local Woollies had full shelves of dunny paper when they opened, but I kid you not within 15 mins their shelves were stripped bare again of toilet paper. The checkouts where chock-o-block with folks and trolleys full of paper and tissues. The world is officially mad--I took this pic at 8.10 this morning


----------



## basilio (4 March 2020)

Interesting to read an analysis of the issues facing the government with a failing economy , topped off by the Corona Virus and the Labour response in 2008 to the GFC,

* Coronavirus is not the villain: Australia’s economy was already on a precipice *
Richard Denniss
We are on the edge of recession because the government has put virtue-signalling about a budget surplus before economic advice

.....The Coalition has had fun deriding Labor for “posting cheques to dead people”, but the fact is: Labor was listening carefully to the economic advice it was being given by Treasury. In response to the GFC, Treasury advised: go hard, go early and go households.

The challenge was to get $100bn into people’s pockets quickly, and it worked. The Labor government’s good economic management helped Australia avoid recession when most other economies faltered. Hundreds of thousands of Australians kept their jobs, while millions of people globally lost theirs.

The fact that Labor posted cheques to dead people is both understandable (10,000 people die in Australia each month) and economically irrelevant. If their families spent the money it still helped stimulate the economy.

And then there’s the school halls. Of all the things a government can build quickly that will last for a century, school hall are about as good as it gets. Strangely, the Coalition seem far less concerned about the billion-dollar blowouts in the cost of their submarines (an eye-watering $200+bn) than they were were in the tens of thousands of extra dollars spent on a few shade cloths. 

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...australias-economy-was-already-on-a-precipice


----------



## wayneL (4 March 2020)

Jeez, looks like I'll be wiping my @ss with straw like medieval aristocracy.

On the upside, we have heaps of straw.

On the downside I don't think I'm going to enjoy wiping my @ss with straw


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 March 2020)

How much toilet paper can these people possibly use?

If they're worried about health then I think improving their diet is perhaps what they need to be looking at.


----------



## wayneL (4 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> How much toilet paper can these people possibly use?
> 
> If they're worried about health then I think improving their diet is perhaps what they need to be looking at.



I think the idea is profiteering....


----------



## MovingAverage (4 March 2020)

I bought all of this this morning. I’m selling it for $100,000 if anyone is running short, but for fellow ASF members I’ll let you take the lot for the discount price of $80,000.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 March 2020)

I see that CommSec once again has a "we're experiencing a high volume of trades....." notice on the site.

First that tells me that retail investors are buying or selling in large volume, it's not just institutions etc.

Second I wonder where the limits are on what the brokers can cope with? Even for those who aren't saying anything, they'd be seeing increased volume presumably and there'd be a limit somewhere.


----------



## CBerg (4 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I see that CommSec once again has a "we're experiencing a high volume of trades....." notice on the site.
> 
> First that tells me that retail investors are buying or selling in large volume, it's not just institutions etc.
> 
> Second I wonder where the limits are on what the brokers can cope with? Even for those who aren't saying anything, they'd be seeing increased volume presumably and there'd be a limit somewhere.



Robinhood(app primarily used by millennials to buy single/fractional US stocks because it’s free) was down all of yesterday... one of the biggest rallies ever... might encourage some to swap to a paid broker.

You do eventually get what you pay for!


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 March 2020)

Another question which arises is who is buying and who is selling?

Is it retail investors buying and selling among themselves?

Or is there a broad exiting by retail and it's institutions buying or vice versa?

I'm thinking that data might actually be available somewhere?


----------



## MovingAverage (4 March 2020)

Was just listening to an interesting interview piece on ABC radio this afternoon about why there is a run on dunny paper. Apparently, a lot of the raw paper material that is used in China for toilet paper is being directed to the manufacture of face masks so there is a shortage of paper material in China for the production of toilet paper so there is a shortage of dunny paper. A lot (not all) of the toilet paper being purchased here in Oz is being shipped over to China. Maybe some of you already know this but I'm a little slow off the mark and have been busy looking for a beach house to buy with all of the cash I get when I sell my 36 pack of dunny paper.


----------



## MrChow (4 March 2020)

SP500 is down -11% and XAO is down -12%

That's happened (double digit correction) 11 times in the past 23 years.

Basically saying on current information this event has the same risk as the things that have happened every 2nd year.

U.S Futures seem to suggest Joe Biden is as important as Coronavirus not sure I'd go that far.


----------



## qldfrog (4 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> SP500 is down -11% and XAO is down -12%
> 
> That's happened (double digit correction) 11 times in the past 23 years.
> 
> ...



I think Joe Bidden is as nefarious as a virus, unless he is your dad and you can get 6 figures a month just thanks to daddy. Even the democrats were hurting voting for him until Bernie arrived....


----------



## satanoperca (4 March 2020)

MovingAverage said:


> Was just listening to an interesting interview piece on ABC radio this afternoon about why there is a run on dunny paper. Apparently, a lot of the raw paper material that is used in China for toilet paper is being directed to the manufacture of face masks so there is a shortage of paper material in China for the production of toilet paper so there is a shortage of dunny paper. A lot (not all) of the toilet paper being purchased here in Oz is being shipped over to China. Maybe some of you already know this but I'm a little slow off the mark and have been busy looking for a beach house to buy with all of the cash I get when I sell my 36 pack of dunny paper.




I will trade you 144 rolls rolls for one beach house, I will event wipe your arse with the first roles as long as the beach house is left clean.

Been waiting for a time to deploy capital, nothing like panic, but not quite there yet, just need the death rate to increase x10. Long funeral homes


----------



## MrChow (4 March 2020)

First 20 news articles on the main paper websites, just 3 and 4 articles relate to Coronavirus now after mass saturation in the past week.

Has focus already peaked?  (will it be mirrored in the markets too)

Dow Futures are up +700 tonight.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Has focus already peaked? (will it be mirrored in the markets too)




My expectation is a second down wave.

I have no firm basis for saying that however, beyond an observation that there was no actual panic and that markets don't generally go straight down from top to bottom (meaning that we probably haven't seen the bottom).

Time will tell though, I could be wrong.


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

Xjo would have to go under 6000 before I'd be bothered looking.

Did the US fed drop rates?


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

You know it's getting ridiculous when you have to use a "guy" to get toilet paper.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Did the US fed drop rates?



Yep - down 0.5% in a single move, something they normally only do in a crisis situation (since they seem to prefer to move in 0.25% increments usually).


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Yep - down 0.5% in a single move, something they normally only do in a crisis situation (since they seem to prefer to move in 0.25% increments usually).



That will explain the market jump...until tomorrow


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...tage-spreads-as-india-limits-exports/12026762
Breaking down of supply chain for medecine inc pill, antibiotics..As long as you do not need medecine in the next months, all is good
And the elephant in the room: why do we never hear about cases in India..not a small place
Saved by their God leader?


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...what-you-should-know/articleshow/73978271.cms
Not much discussed here but indeed they have cases spreading


----------



## CBerg (5 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...what-you-should-know/articleshow/73978271.cms
> Not much discussed here but indeed they have cases spreading



The thing I'd like to know is it really spreading or are people just being diagnosed more now there's more attention on it? I doubt we'll ever know the answer because we can't go back in time and test everyone for it.




https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/3f10f91237ef4df6777502a303a41d4a


Is it really a question at this point that there's more people that have this(and probably with no more ill effects than a bad cold) than have been diagnosed? It's inconceivable to my mind that people really believe it is spreading out of control now rather than 2 months ago when most likely all of this started incubating with global travel being so darn cheap & easy.


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

By the time people get tested when they get sick, they have been contaminated..and contaminating for at least 2 weeks.
Then you start testing the associated contacts and bingo...
I believe it is spreading like fire undetected with a good fortnight delay before serious sickness, and for many not too badly affected..no sickness at all but spreading it
We are 5th of March
Let's see the state of emergency services by the end of March...


----------



## rederob (5 March 2020)

Data from WHO show that China is largely on top of the outbreak, with most new cases happening in other nations.  
Wuhan was a unique event in that there was a denial of the problem until it was almost too late.
Internationally the problem has been exacerbated by travel operators having no health screening arrangements, yet globally airport security in particular is deemed more important.  That might change?
International arrivals are also not screened in most countries - China has been an exception for some time.
As a relatively frequent traveller, I hope the lessons learned from COVID-19's spread mean I can in future arrive somewhere without having to first go to a pharmacy for some medication.
But on topic, I think it's way to early to think that the DOW's bounce overnight is signalling the worst is behind us.  I reckon we are weeks to a month away from seeing how far nations will go to try and isolate themselves and their communities from the problem.


----------



## sptrawler (5 March 2020)

The fall out from supply disruption will affect the next earnings period, a friend who imports furniture has been informed, his next containers wont arrive until June/July.
People who have paid a deposit are getting agitated.


----------



## Humid (5 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> You know it's getting ridiculous when you have to use a "guy" to get toilet paper.



I have a fire hose straight off the bore complete with circular driveway I'm thinking of opening a drive through bidet service


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

Humid said:


> I have a fire hose straight off the bore complete with circular driveway I'm thinking of opening a drive through bidet service



You need one of those window squeegees and a bottle filled with ink in case someone doesn't pay.


----------



## basilio (5 March 2020)

More (unexpected ?) effects of Corona Virus.

 Print Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
*Sydney news: Coronavirus fears cause dental practices to run short on surgical masks*
*Dental practices face mask shortages*
The peak body for dentists says practices are facing closure due to "critically low levels" of surgical supplies amid coronavirus fears and has urged the Federal Government to intervene.
The Australian Dental Association (ADA) said dental practices across the nation were expected to run out of masks within four weeks due to extraordinary demand caused by COVID-19.
"Without surgical masks, dentists cannot treat patients safely and we run the risk of people going without treatment," said the ADA's Deputy chief Eithne Irving.
The association estimated dental practices used around 9,500,000 million masks a month as a new mask is used for each patient.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...surgical-mask-shortages-for-dentists/12026374


----------



## basilio (5 March 2020)

Other businesses affected by corona virus

*Coronavirus travel slump putting event and conference organisers at risk*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-05/travel-conferences-cancelled-due-to-coronavirus/12024032


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The fall out from supply disruption will affect the next earnings period, a friend who imports furniture has been informed, his next containers wont arrive until June/July.
> People who have paid a deposit are getting agitated.



It's going to get very bad. A lot of supply is in the same situation. Everything comes from China. I'm unsure how quickly it will resolve either. 
Although China is back to business.


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

So what's the stimulus package put together by the libs?


----------



## SirRumpole (5 March 2020)

basilio said:


> *Sydney news: Coronavirus fears cause dental practices to run short on surgical masks
> Dental practices face mask shortages*




Great , that will save me $600 for a couple of fillings.


----------



## SirRumpole (5 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> So what's the stimulus package put together by the libs?




Infrastructure spending I expect.


----------



## MrChow (5 March 2020)

Bit of a gap between U.S and Aus markets now:

U.S -7%
Australia -10%

May have thought given valuations in the U.S a correction would hit them harder.


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

Jaguar announced that it was shipping car parts from China in suitcases

That's one way to do it...


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

*8 Things to Know About Ocean Freight*

Maersk and CMA CGM are operating blank sailings
Hapag-Lloyd is operating as normal
Rates are down for Asia-US Transpacific Eastbound; bookings should be made in advance
Rates are steady for Europe-US Transatlantic Westbound; very low capacity - book well in advance
Rates are also down for Asia-Europe; low capacity due to increased blank sailings
Certain countries - including Singapore and Australia - are keeping ships that have been to China in a holding pattern until the crew has been declared virus-free
Other countries - such as South Korea - are imposing stringent screening measures
BDI (Baltic Dry Index) - which reflects the daily price of moving goods like coal and wheat by sea - has dropped to the lowest rates since 2016
*Things to Know About Air Freight*

Commercial capacity is down over 90% with many airlines cutting passenger flights to China
FedEx Express is maintaining service in China, but shipments are being affected
China’s couriers have regained over 40% of normal delivery capacity and are using non-contact delivery methods
UPS expects continued delays and has made China flights voluntary for its pilots
DHL has currently suspended collection, delivery, and warehousing in Hubei province


----------



## moXJO (5 March 2020)

*Sharp slowdown*
The analysts are using the Big Data Shipping Index, created by JPMorgan analyst Anthony Wong, which tracks the worldwide movements of over 50,000 commercial ships, emitting 19,000 radio signals per second.

Mr Wong's data reveals a sharp slowdown in global shipping volumes in February. While global shipping volumes have fallen since the end of 2017, when the US-China trade war escalated, Chinese volumes are still 30 per cent lower than their historical average.

"In cumulative terms, inbound and outbound activity are both running around 30 per cent lower since Lunar New Year, February 7, relative to the historical average," Mr Wong said.

"We will look for an upturn in the index as an early signal that the growth shock from the coronavirus has faded."




https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/shipping-data-reveals-virus-hit-to-the-economy-20200226-p544oc


----------



## qldfrog (5 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> It's going to get very bad. A lot of supply is in the same situation. Everything comes from China. I'm unsure how quickly it will resolve either.
> Although China is back to business.



China is officially back in business but if Shenzhen is representative, mostly empty streets and offices so far...


----------



## sptrawler (5 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Bit of a gap between U.S and Aus markets now:
> 
> U.S -7%
> Australia -10%
> ...



The U.S underlying economy is doing quite well, manufacturing increasing,  unemployment at record lows.
Our economy heavily reliant on China and underlying strength, weak at best.
Just my opinion.


----------



## greggles (6 March 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?
> 
> Fear fear and more fear.
> 
> Relevance of this flu ? Or likely  ? NOT much.






moXJO said:


> Agree with big K.
> Another scare campaign.




Six weeks later and it's certainly a little more serious than you guys gave it credit for.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The U.S underlying economy is doing quite well, manufacturing increasing,  unemployment at record lows.




If there's one thing I'll predict which goes right against mainstream thinking it's that we'll see this "increasing manufacturing" bit play out in Australia before too much longer.

There's a few rumblings beneath the surface, talks going on etc. That was before the virus but my thinking is that the virus will give that idea a push along if there's a widely perceived need to boost the economy and reliance on imports is seen as risky in terms of supply disruptions etc.


----------



## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If there's one thing I'll predict which goes right against mainstream thinking it's that we'll see this "increasing manufacturing" bit play out in Australia before too much longer.
> 
> There's a few rumblings beneath the surface, talks going on etc. That was before the virus but my thinking is that the virus will give that idea a push along if there's a widely perceived need to boost the economy and reliance on imports is seen as risky in terms of supply disruptions etc.



I agree and we will see one or both parties pushing our tax money toward some white elephants... destined to failure in a country where innovation is not encouraged, tax system biaised and local knowledge and infrastructure sent to the junk yard and replaced by barristas and real estate speculation


----------



## basilio (6 March 2020)

IMV this is the social and economic bomb that will go off if the virus gets out of hand .
And debt is running a very close second

*Among coronavirus chaos, union calls for special measures to protect millions of casual workers from COVID-19 fallout *
By  Lucia Stein  and  Felicity Ogilvie 
Posted about an hour ago

*Related Story:* Debt is the timebomb on global markets, coronavirus just lit the fuse
*Related Story:* Coronavirus crisis sees RBA slash interest rates to new low of 0.5pc
Leith Hawthorne is worried about what coronavirus prevention measures could mean for her work.

As a casually employed hairdresser in Brisbane, the 41-year-old said a possible two-week quarantine would have a huge impact on her finances.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...-could-be-hardest-hit-by-coronavirus/12027382


----------



## basilio (6 March 2020)

Back to the debt issue.  Just can't quite see how this plane can land safely ..

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ns-climate-of-panic-on-share-markets/12011156


----------



## MrChow (6 March 2020)

China new cases are down 97% in a month:

4th Feb - 3887
5th March - 160

Korea trending down too from a week ago:

29th Feb - 813
5th March - 467


----------



## sptrawler (6 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If there's one thing I'll predict which goes right against mainstream thinking it's that we'll see this "increasing manufacturing" bit play out in Australia before too much longer.
> 
> There's a few rumblings beneath the surface, talks going on etc. That was before the virus but my thinking is that the virus will give that idea a push along if there's a widely perceived need to boost the economy and reliance on imports is seen as risky in terms of supply disruptions etc.



It will certainly prompt Governments to think twice, about allowing foriegn ownership of core manufacturing businesses, where they are purchased with the obvios intent of closing them and importing product.


----------



## rederob (6 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It will certainly prompt Governments to think twice, about allowing foriegn ownership of core manufacturing businesses, where they are purchased with the obvios intent of closing them and importing product.



Given that we do not have any *core manufacturing businesses*, the government can do what it usually does... nothing.


----------



## moXJO (6 March 2020)

greggles said:


> Six weeks later and it's certainly a little more serious than you guys gave it credit for.



Economically its where I thought it would be. I'm still unsure of how bad the virus will be.
I'm still cautiously at "scare campaign".


----------



## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> China new cases are down 97% in a month:
> 
> 4th Feb - 3887
> 5th March - 160
> ...



French figures trending up like fire..


----------



## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Given that we do not have any *core manufacturing businesses*, the government can do what it usually does... nothing.



Damned i might agree with @rederob..must have been infected
Only nuance is that it actually can do nothing about it.. even if it wanted


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2020)

Is " just another virus?"

*Coronavirus*

“We’re seeing that many of the cities around China, people are actually going back to work. We’re seeing some of the shops in Beijing are opening up. When you’re going on the freeway now, you’re actually seeing traffic jams versus, say, two, three weeks ago, where the roads were pretty empty...we started seeing activity pick up a little bit two weeks ago. And then also, this week, we’re also seeing continued pickup” _Herman Yu, CFO, Baidu Inc [Chinese technology multinational]_

“It feels to me that China is getting the coronavirus under control. You look at the numbers, they’re coming down day by day by day” _Tim Cook, CEO, Apple Inc_

“In terms of what we are seeing currently all our factories by tomorrow will be back up and running, 85 per cent last week were back up and running, and 80 per cent of fabric mills we understand are up and running” _John King, CEO, Myer Holdings Ltd_

“Chinese airline customers, it’s about 10% of our backlog today. Flights touching China is about 20% of our engine flying hours. How much of that should we take into account? I can’t tell you, but what I can tell you is that year-to-date, flights touching China are down by approximately between 15%ish in January and 50% in February” _Warren East, CEO, Rolls Royce Holdings plc_


----------



## rederob (6 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Damned i might agree with @rederob..must have been infected
> Only nuance is that it actually can do nothing about it.. even if it wanted



Actually the Treasurer can use powers under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act if an action is not in the national interest, as it did when it blocked Hong Kong-based CK Group's bid to assume ownership of the APA Group back in 2018.


----------



## wayneL (6 March 2020)




----------



## Sdajii (6 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> China new cases are down 97% in a month:
> 
> 4th Feb - 3887
> 5th March - 160
> ...




These figures, especially from China, can't possibly be taken seriously.


----------



## MrChow (6 March 2020)

Seems inevitable we'll get to -20% just on sentiment (already at -13% so not a big call)

U.S and Europe new cases will ramp up over the next couple months to make plenty of headlines and earnings / GDP downgrades won't be pretty either.

The gray area for me is whether there will be a domino effect after the virus peaks - is that it or is there a lingering surprise in store for financial markets similar to what sub prime did.


----------



## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Actually the Treasurer can use powers under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act if an action is not in the national interest, as it did when it blocked Hong Kong-based CK Group's bid to assume ownership of the APA Group back in 2018.



I meant we have nothing left to rebuild from


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2020)

Caveat: it is Motley fool



> The analysts at *Macquarie Group Ltd* (ASX: MQG) have put on their thinking caps and have come up with two sectors that they think will lead the recovery.
> 
> They based their findings on the SARS outbreak. Even though COVID-19 is worse than SARS, Macquarie thinks it will go by a similar playbook.
> 
> ...


----------



## qldfrog (6 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Caveat: it is Motley fool



my view is that these analysts are dinosaurs repeating past history as an indication of the future: Chinese stimulus should boost the retails and citizens, not more roads and empty buildings already there a plenty, ..So I expect a consumption stimulus.so no mining boom out of it yet.my view only


----------



## CBerg (6 March 2020)

A little ray of sunshine?
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives

*Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate*

With 140,000 people tested, the country’s mortality rate is just over 0.6 per cent compared to the 3.4 per cent global average reported by the WHO


----------



## MrChow (7 March 2020)

Flu death natural variation in the U.S:

2012: -67% (-25,000)
2013: +258% (+31,000)
2014: -11% (-5,000)
2015: +34% (+13,000)
2016: -54% (-28,000)
2017: +56% (+13,000)
2018: +60% (+25,000)


----------



## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> A little ray of sunshine?
> https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives
> 
> *Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate*
> ...



Good point: so 0.6pc mortality rate with top medical facilities in first world, with no health system collapse; we now have the best case scenario


----------



## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Good point: so 0.6pc mortality rate with top medical facilities in first world, with no health system collapse; we now have the best case scenario



Going with that figure, with 30% people contaminated..a low figure, that is nearly 47000 death
So the issue is where do you find the icu beds for these persons..and the ones who do not die
Even at a week in icu, that is 1000 beds per week just for the ones who die
Just a flu they said.and BTW, flu season is coming, what are your chances if you get both...buy the dip they say
Anyway while happy with the 0.6 fatality rate, it is a catastrophic impact well above our response ability here.
I will go and buy some TP on the black market.seriously, these figures ensure i will not reenter the market soon and if it is seasonal, australia might expect a double whammy just as the world markets start to raise again in northern spring


----------



## qldfrog (7 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Flu death natural variation in the U.S:
> 
> 2012: -67% (-25,000)
> 2013: +258% (+31,000)
> ...



Based on these graphs the flu mortality rate is 6 times lower than the covid optimistic 0.6pc death rate, with the flu contamination lower due to vaccine.....and known treatments for the flu
Are we supposed to feel better?
But interesting figures nevertheless.


----------



## rederob (7 March 2020)

The federal government has a chance to kill one bird with stones: stimulate the economy at a broad level by increasing both the Newstart allowance and age pensions.  Both these groups spend every cent on living costs so their is minimal wastage.  Moreover, they are geographically well spread, so the stimulus will not be confined to capital cities.  Such a stimulus would also be immediate and enduring.
That seems unlikely to happen, however, as the Coalition has scant regard for people who don't vote them into power.  They instead think that funding massive one-off tax write-offs to business is more beneficial.  
Maybe they are also loathe to repeat the tried and proven Rudd measure that showed the effectiveness of *giving *millions of individual taxpayers a relatively small amount to spend over a measured period of time.


----------



## wayneL (7 March 2020)

I think there is a certain moral hazard in giving one off payments, but go along with the increase in age pension and newstart. in my opinion that would give a more organic and holistic boost to the economy.


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2020)

One off payments won't work this time imo.
People can smell a recession, added with panic of COVID 19. Bills and mortgages will just get payed down.

I like the idea of raising newstart. The poorest in society will keep spending and need a boost.


----------



## wayneL (7 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> One off payments won't work this time imo.
> People can smell a recession, added with panic of COVID 19. Bills and mortgages will just get payed down.
> 
> I like the idea of raising newstart. The poorest in society will keep spending and need a boost.



And...


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> And...




I agree completely. It was overkill at the time. We were not in that bad of a position to throw money away like idiots.


----------



## MrChow (7 March 2020)

Seems like quite an angry guy on Twitter.

Makes Trump look like a stable genius.


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Seems like quite an angry guy on Twitter.
> 
> Makes Trump look like a stable genius.



I think being angry is a prerequisite of joining Twitter.


----------



## MrChow (7 March 2020)

Australia could be the first country that tests out the seasonality factor of Coronavirus.

If we are latently accumulating from Feb-May it could spike come June-August.

Then I wonder what northern hemisphere countries do to prepare for their flu season starting October.

If you look at Spanish Flu, Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, Swine Flu graphs they all show multiple waves that coincide with huge multiplier effects in colder months.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2020)

The big news in Melbourne is the story of the doctor in the Toorak Clinic who has been diagnosed with the virus.
He has treated 70 patients at the clinic  in the last week and 2 more at a nearby nursing home.

Obviously all the patients, clinic staff and doctors will be isolated at home for at least 14 days. The clinic is closed for 14 days.  The nursing home will be on tenterhooks .

Economic fallout ?  I would wonder if the closure of Clinic would be covered by insurance ? Or if  patients could turn around and sue the clinic for negligence in exposing them to the virus and the disruption this causes them (I say this because we are talking Toorak and unfortunately some of our wealthier citizens are very litigious). And overall this clinic is losing a minimum 2 weeks business. Eight doctors. Probably as many staff and ancillary service providers.  Dentist, Dietician, Physio, Counsellor, Chemist all taking an upaid  holiday.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> A little ray of sunshine?
> https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives
> 
> *Coronavirus: South Korea’s aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate*
> ...




Excellent story.  Adds much to our current understanding.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I agree completely. It was overkill at the time. We were not in that bad of a position to throw money away like idiots.




Alternatively one could make the observation to take imperfect solutions that got results than incompetence married to flawed ideology any day. Lets look at Robo debt shall we ?


----------



## Bill M (7 March 2020)

People are losing their minds. Fighting in a supermarket over toilet paper. Police had to be called.


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Alternatively one could make the observation to take imperfect solutions that got results than incompetence married to flawed ideology any day. Lets look at Robo debt shall we ?



I think robo debt is disgusting. A lot of what the libs has done I don't agree with. It's the same thing. Overkill with consequences.
Libs have failed bad, but that doesn't mean labor is any better. They wiped out our rights along with the libs. They had their torts along with the libs. I'm not blind to one sides failings because I lean to one way.

They both need to be held to account and the only way is to vote independent.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> They both need to be held to account and the only way is to vote independent.




Agreed. *But* . I suggest the way to hold *all* of them to account is with an independent Federal ICAC  with some teeth.

The latest revelations on the sports rorts affair  (not to mention "water sales" to friends, made up stories that aren't investigated ...)  just stink.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...hanges-everything-its-time-for-a-federal-icac


----------



## basilio (7 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> I think there is a certain moral hazard in giving one off payments, but go along with the increase in age pension and newstart. in my opinion that would give a more organic and holistic boost to the economy.




Better come inside Wayne.  I think you may  have been a bit sun touched... organic and holistic  boost indeed


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Better come inside Wayne.  I think you may  have been a bit sun touched... organic and holistic  boost indeed



You don't have to be a hateful tw@t all the time bas. It doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to get my meaning.

If not, why not just ask what I mean?


----------



## Humid (8 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> You don't have to be a hateful tw@t all the time bas. It doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to get my meaning.
> 
> If not, why not just ask what I mean?




Too much methane will do that too


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Too much methane will do that too



Let's save it for the "General Chat" forum bud.


----------



## Humid (8 March 2020)

wayneL said:


>





This acceptable bud?


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2020)

Let's save the aggression for the toilet paper isle in woolies


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Agreed. *But* . I suggest the way to hold *all* of them to account is with an independent Federal ICAC  with some teeth.
> 
> The latest revelations on the sports rorts affair  (not to mention "water sales" to friends, made up stories that aren't investigated ...)  just stink.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/austral...hanges-everything-its-time-for-a-federal-icac



Everyone needs to open their eyes to see that being labor or liberal faithful is destroying the country. Commissions do nothing for legal rorts.


----------



## Humid (8 March 2020)

Don’t pm me Waynal 
I’m not your friend


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Don’t pm me Waynal
> I’m not your friend



I PMed you in an effort to keep this sort of thing out of what is otherwise a useful thread.

If you would like to play, let's do it there, soas not to annoy everyone else.


----------



## satanoperca (8 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Let's save it for the "General Chat" forum bud.



Last 20 posts, nothing to do with Economic Impact, once again a good thread has been derailed and not even by a person who is familiar with denailing (I hope I got that right WayneL)


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2020)

Anyway.....

Everyone has bought out rice. I was in the Asian supermarkets I think on Wednesday and they were still stocked. All gone on Friday. I'm wondering if it's a double whammy for Asian restaurants?

People are also starting to panic buy food. There are long queues in some areas. 
I'm surprised at just how easy it is to derail the system. I would think only a third of people are panic buying.

Talking to a woolies employee, they mentioned they were short of packers as the workload had increased and people were walking off the job due to the load and abuse.

If you want toilet paper, Bunnings has the pub style rolls. Like wiping your ass on A4 but better then nothing. 
Bunnings customers looked down as well. 
Shopping centers were pretty empty.
Thai restaurants, surprising packed.


----------



## rederob (8 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Last 20 posts, nothing to do with Economic Impact, once again a good thread has been derailed and not even by a person who is familiar with denailing (I hope I got that right WayneL)



Nailed it!
Only a brave person would think our market has bottomed, as the effects of present actions have barely reverberated through the economy.  
Tighter measures are likely and government stimulus, whatever it will end up being, will not give back what has been lost.
The good news, of sorts, is that much of China is back producing stuff so supply chain constrains are more likely to now occur at the receiving ends.
I am having a dabble on EVN tomorrow as it's well under par value given its metrics, and has a delightful dividend policy.


----------



## IFocus (8 March 2020)

I am a bit concerned (politics aside) about the governments economic response still not made to confront the down turn.

A number of issues but I hope the government doesn't get too smart trying to under spend Labors GFC response based on political grounds but its starting to look possible.

Going ahead of the curve and over spend is way in front of acting behind the curve.

One number that came out of insiders was it took 14 years for unemployment to recover from the 89 recession and given the increase of causal labour (over 3 million) that could get ugly if they screw it up.

Edit Red given the pollution levels apparently China hasn't returned to work with 40 - 50% of migrant labour still haven't returned to work (Insiders numbers)


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

As someone said, here goes another thread down the political or climate change road, it is a shame it stuffs up another good thread.
When the Government announces its action, then it becomes a point of discussion, untill then it is just biased guesses.


----------



## IFocus (8 March 2020)

Both of the below are very good reinforces aggressive action


----------



## satanoperca (8 March 2020)

The economic impact is largely in the hands of our leaders, the govnuts - to inform the masses about what is happening, to stop panic.

Based on the Vic Health Ministers response to a GP in Toorak, I think we are F---kd. Her incompetency just displays how inept our officials are which in turn results in economic downward pressure, both locally and nationally. 

The country needs leaders, but we seem to be lacking them, who is to blame, everyone.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

Went shopping today. Not panic buying and hoarding, just buying food and so on. Some observations:

Generally extremely busy everywhere.

Woolworths have no toilet paper. Coles only have single rolls left and limit is 1 per customer. Foodland had a limited stock. All three were very busy. Noticed that various off the shelf medicines seemed to have been "raided" but there was still some stock there.  

Bunnings also extremely busy in a manner more akin to the days prior to Christmas. 

At the local service station it was also extremely busy. Cars at every pump and a queue in the shop to pay. Of note was someone filling a 20 litre jerry can with petrol - could just be a perfectly normal purchase that's going to be used for whatever but the thought they could be hoarding did go through my mind.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> One number that came out of insiders was it took 14 years for unemployment to recover from the 89 recession and given the increase of causal labour (over 3 million) that could get ugly if they screw it up.




Also a lot of regional variation in how long recovery took.

It was still full blown doom and gloom in some regional areas many years later.

Also plenty of people then aged over 45 never actually got another full time job. They didn't know it at the time but the recession ended their careers in practice and there were plenty caught up in that from unskilled through to senior managers.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> As someone said, here goes another thread down the political or climate change road, it is a shame it stuffs up another good thread.



I can see relevance in what governments are actually doing as distinct from the politics and I can also see relevance in air pollution as an observable measure of economic activity in places like China - if the air's cleaner than normal then it means activity hasn't returned to normal.

But yes, let's keep on topic.

As for the financial markets:  https://i.redd.it/jeddjbest6l41.jpg


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Went shopping today. Not panic buying and hoarding, just buying food and so on. Some observations:
> 
> Generally extremely busy everywhere.
> 
> ...



I was at Bunnings this weekend too and concur that it was extremely busy... Hard to get a park even.

On the other hand last weekend I was shopping with Mrs at one of the Westfields here in Brisbane and it was very quiet and very noticeable how many shops had gone down the shyte chute.

I have been following the commentary on the retail recession, but it was actually fairly confronting to see how much effect it had had in the malls. typical comment of those who were still open, was that they were having extreme difficulty getting stock.

It reminded me of the high streets in the UK back in 2008.


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can see relevance in what governments are actually doing as distinct from the politics and I can also see relevance in air pollution as an observable measure of economic activity in places like China - if the air's cleaner than normal then it means activity hasn't returned to normal.
> 
> But yes, let's keep on topic.
> 
> As for the financial markets:  https://i.redd.it/jeddjbest6l41.jpg



As soon as the Government announce its response, Im sure another thread will start, as it should.
We seem to be doing very well keeping it on track and non emotional.


----------



## basilio (8 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Also a lot of regional variation in how long recovery took.
> 
> It was still full blown doom and gloom in some regional areas many years later.
> 
> Also plenty of people then aged over 45 never actually got another full time job. They didn't know it at the time but the recession ended their careers in practice and there were plenty caught up in that from unskilled through to senior managers.




Quite true.  A few other points to remember/realise from the unemployment that came from the 1991 recession.

Social Security was a bit easier then.  The government "allowed" many workers in their 50's who had lost their factory jobs to end up on  disability pensions.  Not a great result but they at least stayed solvent until they reached pension age. In 2020 people will go on Newstarve -- unless their partner has some employment

I believe two income families have increased significantly in 30 years. These days that is  just sufficient to keep a family paying its mortgage and getting by. But if one person loses their job there is no  Newstarve and no family.
There is far and away more casual employment. In 2020 these will disappear like autumn leaves.  No redundancy packages, no nothing. Quick trip to trouble.
And now we know there is substantially more household debt than ever before.
.......................................
Approps to now

view
* ‘If I catch the coronavirus I’m screwed. Gig economy workers can’t afford to be ill’ *
Tom Wall
Those self-isolating may end up relying on Deliveroo riders, but as the self-employed do not get sick pay they will be likely to carry on working even if they get the virus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oor-to-stay-at-home-if-they-catch-coronavirus


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2020)

Im in two minds about stimulus.
We are due for a recession. Want cheaper housing, bills, goods. Then we can't keep kicking the can down the road. The longer it goes on the more pain we are in for.

On the other hand, people will suffer. Not sure the banks would cope with a lot of defaults. Small businesses would really wear it.
But at some point it will hit anyway. So what's the way forward?


----------



## IFocus (8 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> As soon as the Government announce its response, Im sure another thread will start, as it should.
> We seem to be doing very well keeping it on track and non emotional.




One of the biggest economic implications is actually the Government response right across the board on managing the virus / information and of course monetary, there are few other variables that can be managed. 

You are going to have to park up your emotions on this one I am afraid.


----------



## IFocus (8 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Im in two minds about stimulus.
> We are due for a recession. Want cheaper housing, bills, goods. Then we can't keep kicking the can down the road. The longer it goes on the more pain we are in for.
> 
> On the other hand, people will suffer. Not sure the banks would cope with a lot of defaults. Small businesses would really wear it.
> But at some point it will hit anyway. So what's the way forward?




I think a recession is going to happen regardless its all the debt blowing up that really worries me.


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> I think a recession is going to happen regardless its all the debt blowing up that really worries me.



And that right there is the crux of the matter. We have an everything bubble, which basically amounts to a massive credit bubble which at some point will of course blow up and everyone's faces. All it needs is a catalyst.

Is CV the catalyst? It's kinda looking that way in my opinion.

Sure there will be attempts to kick the can further down the road yet again, but I think the can is loaded with chlorine and brake fluid this time.


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2020)

Saw an Italian guy going off as the pasta had all gone out of woolies. Got to chatting about italy.
He mentioned that he had family in the entertainment industry and that the live crowds on tv shows had evaporated. Also said the "social isolating" had gotten really bad. No one was going out or interacting. 

Concerts, clubs, seminars, or any large gatherings would surely be at risk in the next few months.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 March 2020)

It's obvious that our national income from iron ore and coal exports will fall dur to CV and the faltering Chinese economy, so the revenue has to be made up and there should be a resource rent tax to replace the lost income which can then pay for increases in Newstart and pensions. And when ore prices go up again , total revenue will increase.

Remember, increases in Newstart and pensions are forever, no government will reduce them once they are given, so there has to be an increase in recurrent income to balance it.


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

Talking to someone  who works in a travel agency, staff dropped from four to two.


----------



## qldfrog (8 March 2020)

One small reflection is how long it took for people to realise and take this seriously
Just a flu they said..some still do...
We were already discussing economic consequences etc mid January here
The lockdown in China has worked as it has given us a month and a half to sort our mess out and be ready
I hope the various governments have too.
Mid January you could get masks, 
medecine and as much pasta rice and TP as you could pay for...
With India locking exports of medecines, it could be wise for people not on my ignore lists to ensure they have enough paracetamol, iboprofen but also contraceptive pills and any other critical prescriptions. 
You can replace toilet paper but not the pill as easily 
As for bunnings rush i understand it perfectly, if everything comes from China at bunnings and the flow is stopped, when will you be able to get your screws taps or bits and pieces
If i was a tradie i would stockpile a bit of essentials.
I pity the asbestos team needing new masks..this means no job


----------



## basilio (8 March 2020)

Things are not getting better are they ?

* Coronavirus: quarter of Italy's population put in quarantine as virus reaches Washington DC *
Giuseppe Conte signs decree early on Sunday after 1,200 cases confirmed in 24 hours 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-italy-quarantine-virus-reaches-washington-dc


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Things are not getting better are they ?
> 
> * Coronavirus: quarter of Italy's population put in quarantine as virus reaches Washington DC *
> Giuseppe Conte signs decree early on Sunday after 1,200 cases confirmed in 24 hours
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-italy-quarantine-virus-reaches-washington-dc



Italy is the place to watch. Australia is just as bad when it comes to dealing with problems. Similar attitudes.

China is not like the West. They are much more efficient at dealing with problems.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> I think a recession is going to happen regardless its all the debt blowing up that really worries me.



Recession almost inevitable (says Alan Kohler)


> The Australian economy was ... fragile, as shown by the December quarter national accounts, and not in a strong position to handle the crisis as the government claims it is.
> 
> Consumer spending growth of 0.4 per cent in the quarter underpinned the insipid GDP growth of 0.5 per cent. Net exports contributed 0.1 per cent.





> Population growth last year was 1.6 per cent — 0.4 per cent per quarter, the same as the increase in consumer spending. No one spent any more — there were just more people spending.
> 
> The increase in population in 2019 was 381,600. Included in that were 268,000 temporary visas for Chinese people, of which 134,000 are students. And then there is tourism. Short-term visitors from China have been running at about 1.4 million a year. In other words, most of Australia’s economic growth has been the result of extra people, not an increase in the productivity or wealth of the people already here. Most of the extra people aren’t coming now...



the anecdotal evidence of changes is
a) overwhelming
b) dramatic
c) self-evident

The *second-order *effects are where the blows are going to come from. Job losses, reduced or altered spending patterns, belt-tightening.


----------



## basilio (8 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Remember, increases in Newstart and pensions are forever, no government will reduce them once they are given, so there has to be an increase in recurrent income to balance it.




I would support a substantial increase in Newstart.  It is just a starvation figure at the moment and if many more people are thrown out of work they will need more support than the current pittance. And frankly I would review the situation  for 2 income households where  one person loses their job and is deemed ineligible to get support becasue their partner is working.

I don't know if current Old Age pensioners need an increase.  Frankly I would target any increase to those  paying high rents. IMV pensioners who own their own home and have some other small pensions or income are in as good a position as any in our society and I suggest much better off than people who will lose shifts, jobs and businesses as the coronavirus unwinds. As Rumpy points out adding new long term commitments to our pension costs would be problematical.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> One of the biggest economic implications is actually the Government response right across the board on managing the virus / information and of course monetary...



RBA is *monetary *policy (interest rates and money supply)
Government is *fiscal *policy (tax rates, levels of government spending and, likely soon, stimulus ... to influence aggregate demand in the economy)


----------



## basilio (8 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Im in two minds about stimulus.
> 
> On the other hand, people will suffer.* Not sure the banks would cope with a lot of defaults. *Small businesses would really wear it.
> But at some point it will hit anyway. So what's the way forward?




Yeah. This is a very real short term and longer term problem.
Honestly I don't think our current economic system and framework is fit for purpose to offer a cogent way forward.
Why ? Lots of reasons. Firstly  I see much of our current " economic progress" as false.  I suggest that trying encourage people to buy more and more "stuff" that is wasteful or creates secondary effects of pollution and  poor health/social outcomes  is not that good for us. Makes money but is it progress ?

Secondly from what I see the huge push in the current economic system is AI and automation everywhere.  Retail and transport for a start are slated for big changes. I still haven't seen any serious indication of how new careers will be created as many traditional ones are  destroyed. 

Solutions ? Maybe a nasty  world wide virus that.............


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I pity the asbestos team needing new masks..this means no job



I'm not in the business but I've got the gear.

Walking around in public fully suited up for asbestos removal might cause some panic however......


----------



## basilio (8 March 2020)

Lots more to consider as /when governments decide to try and isolate people who are infected to prevent the spread of the virus.
FYI

https://www.zurich.com/en/knowledge/topics/global-risks/coronavirus-and-economic-risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-pandemic-global-economic-risk/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...rnment-planning-for-serious-outbreak/12033560
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ntine-in-beijing-no-fun-bill-birtles/12032244
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...travel-insurance-exclusion-confusion/12027638


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

Looking at the financial markets, I think an issue is that the USA hasn't yet experienced the "boom" in infection numbers which other countries have seen. They've got some cases and it's increasing but they haven't had the sudden acceleration that has occurred on some other places.

One that happens, and it will, then we'll see another major drop in the markets and the prospect of a bottom being formed is my expectation.

Currently 436 cases in the USA versus 949 in France and 5833 in Italy. Considering that the US' population is about 5 times that of France and 5.5 times that of Italy, it hasn't really got going yet for the Americans. When it does, Wall St will panic.


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Yeah. This is a very real short term and longer term problem.
> Honestly I don't think our current economic system and framework is fit for purpose to offer a cogent way forward.
> Why ? Lots of reasons. Firstly  I see much of our current " economic progress" as false.  I suggest that trying encourage people to buy more and more "stuff" that is wasteful or creates secondary effects of pollution and  poor health/social outcomes  is not that good for us. Makes money but is it progress ?
> 
> ...



It is essentially a Ponzi scheme. Eventually the world will run out of greater fools.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> It is essentially a Ponzi scheme.



Speaking of which, I had to check the date to confirm it wasn't the 1st of April after reading this.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/2fc4560c782ed83d3a2696c4e4522fb1

The last thing we need is more Ponzi economics which try to do more of the same in the false hope of getting a different result.

Note that I'm not opposed to people of any particular race but I most certainly am opposed to the idea of constant growth in population so as to avoid a technical recession. It's madness really.


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Speaking of which, I had to check the date to confirm it wasn't the 1st of April after reading this.
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/2fc4560c782ed83d3a2696c4e4522fb1
> 
> ...



The Australian way smurf, it is a quick fire way of fixing the problem, but long term it will be our demise IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2020)

Governor of New York has declared a state of emergency: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-us-deaths-new-york-emergency-florida

Italy has now locked down 16 million people or about a quarter of the country's population: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-italy-quarantine-milan-northern-regions/12037302

This would seem to be escalating very rapidly and I'll go out on a limb and say that at this rate we could well see major disruption in Australia within the next 3 weeks. At this stage I don't think it's unreasonable to expect we're going to end up at that point.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Speaking of which, I had to check the date to confirm it wasn't the 1st of April after reading this.
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/2fc4560c782ed83d3a2696c4e4522fb1
> 
> ...




'Experts' like this are driving people to vote for Pauline Hanson.

The reason that wages have been stagnant for so long is that there is an oversupply of labour. Employers don't need to increase wages because there are plenty of people who will work for less.

As for saying people who avoid Asian countries are racist, that's plain ridiculous. It's just sensible to avoid countries where there are infection outbreaks which is the reason we have travel bans.

We are becoming a low wage economy based on service industries that has little room for innovation and all our smart people are leaving for countries that have tech dependant jobs that pay more and are more intellectually stimulating. What we need is less people, but better educated and higher paid ones and some high tech industries to keep the best and brightest here. Otherwise we will become a nation of hairdressers and waiters.


----------



## qldfrog (9 March 2020)

https://www.sagecap.com.au/insights/now-is-not-the-time-to-be-hero-but-to-look-to-preserve-capital
Pretty sensible article in my opinion
Hope it helps


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.sagecap.com.au/insights/now-is-not-the-time-to-be-hero-but-to-look-to-preserve-capital
> Pretty sensible article in my opinion
> Hope it helps



Sober, scary story.  I'm not sure how staying in the stock market is going to "preserve"capital. Frankly I think today will be a bloodbath on the exchange.  (Collapse in oil prices for a start..)

Most sobering graph in the story ?


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

One of the fallouts of this crisis has been the crash in oil demand and therefore the price of oil with all that entails for economies dependent on a high price.

Looks as if the Saudis will ensure an even steeper fall.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...uch-as-20-as-saudis-vow-to-step-up-production


----------



## IFocus (9 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> RBA is *monetary *policy (interest rates and money supply)
> Government is *fiscal *policy (tax rates, levels of government spending and, likely soon, stimulus ... to influence aggregate demand in the economy)




 Yes didn't sound right when i wrote it, note the RBA has no ammo unlike the GFC and with the FED attacking with .5% and no effect we can rule out monetary policy as being an option not that they wont try.


----------



## MrChow (9 March 2020)

XAO might start with a 5 by end of today.


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

A good article on the state of play, regarding the economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...rison-stave-off-a-recession-covid-19/12037522


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A good article on the state of play, regarding the economy.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...rison-stave-off-a-recession-covid-19/12037522




Excellent story. Couple of salient points in the article.
_
In addition to this, a range of measures were instituted to stabilise our banking and financial systems.(in last GFC )

Bank deposits up to $1 million were guaranteed,* investors were banned from short-selling financial stocks *and our banks were given access to the Commonwealth balance sheet so they could refinance their offshore loans.

Without this last measure, all our banks would have folded as global credit markets seized.

...Perhaps the biggest problem with our economy is household debt.

It is hovering at around world-record levels when compared with income at a time when wages growth is barely registering a heartbeat.

Despite this, as you can see from the graph above, consumption lifted in the lead up to Christmas, possibly as a result of the tax rebate and last year's two rate cuts.

A boost to household spending power — whether it's delivered through a lift in Newstart, income tax relief, or a direct payment — should deliver a boost to consumption, helping keep businesses afloat and workers employed.
*
Another possible measure could be a loan facility, not unlike drought relief to farmers, that would deliver a debt moratorium to small and medium sized businesses hit by the virus-induced downturn.*
_


----------



## moXJO (9 March 2020)

5800 on xjo was where I thought I'd get interested in looking at stocks again.


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

It will be really interesting to see what financial steps are taken, there isn't a lot of wriggle room, already large Government debt, borderline running a balanced budget.
I'm glad it isn't my job, to decide which way to jump, this is where high ranking public servants earn their money. Hopefully they are up to it.


----------



## moXJO (9 March 2020)

Everything still looks bloody expensive. What the hell was the market running on before?


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Everything still looks bloody expensive. What the hell was the market running on before?



That is what I'm finding, apart from financials, my other shares are holding up o.k.


----------



## moXJO (9 March 2020)

I love a good panic.


----------



## banco (9 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It will be really interesting to see what financial steps are taken, there isn't a lot of wriggle room, already large Government debt, borderline running a balanced budget.
> I'm glad it isn't my job, to decide which way to jump, this is where high ranking public servants earn their money. Hopefully they are up to it.




Government debt isn't that high really compared to other western countries. Private debt is another story.....


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

banco said:


> Government debt isn't that high really compared to other western countries. Private debt is another story.....



That is true, but not having as much debt as someone who is insolvent, isn't a high bar to get over.


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

That was a shocking day on the markets.  Certainly creates concern for how this will all unfold.


----------



## qldfrog (9 March 2020)

But it is ok
Todays news
_The virus incubation period is probably closer to a week rather than 14 days. The 14 days has margin for error in it_.
"_Most of the international community would like to see if we can safely reduce that period, because it is an awfully long time."
From Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy_
How inconvenient so lets shorten it
With science like that....
Reading behind the line, it is an admission of defeat


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But it is ok
> Todays news
> _The virus incubation period is probably closer to a week rather than 14 days. The 14 days has margin for error in it_.
> "_Most of the international community would like to see if we can safely reduce that period, because it is an awfully long time."
> ...



I think there isn't much more they can do, it isn't China where you can shut people down, so everyone will be told what to look out for and what steps to take if you become ill.
For the most part, they will be wanting to get back to business as usual, as quickly as possible IMO.
Whether it pans out that way, time will tell.


----------



## matty77 (9 March 2020)

True, you cant quarantine whole countries it kind of misses the point. Quarantine earth maybe as the next step? You get my point, but the best case scenario is to slow the spread as much as possible so medical facilities can keep up and treat people. I think Government around the world have pretty much admitted its coming, but lets just slow it down as much as possible.

Time to go get healthy and build that immune system.


----------



## qldfrog (9 March 2020)

In term of economic cost
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-a380-grounding/


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> In term of economic cost



I think it's worth saying that what we've got here is an economic event not just a financial market event.

It's planes sitting on the ground, empty restaurants, shops without customers (except those selling toilet paper obviously) and so on.

A lot of that will never be recovered. Activity will eventually come back to normal yes but what's lost won't be recovered as such. We're not going to see people taking the holiday they cancelled because they were quarantined next year on top of the holiday they'd otherwise have taken next year. We're not going to see people eating at restaurants at 2am catching up on the meals they missed. Etc. What's lost is mostly lost for good.

Central banks can throw money around but it's much harder to create real activity.


----------



## Knobby22 (9 March 2020)

The real economic cost though is failure of supply chains, the forced shutting down of businesses, cash flow problems, businesses going broke, unemployment rising, people unable to pay their debts,

Then:
 banks getting huge rise in bad debts, 
Governments unable to collect adequate taxes, high drain on health system, shortages of goods and food,  etc.


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The real economic cost though is failure of supply chains, the forced shutting down of businesses, cash flow problems, businesses going broke, unemployment rising, people unable to pay their debts,
> 
> Then:
> banks getting huge rise in bank debts,
> Governments unable to collect adequate taxes, high drain on health system, shortages of goods and food,  etc.



Absolutely.. IMV the most important activity in the next few months is negotiating some form of soft landing from this situation. I mean not allowing our political and social systems to totally crash and burn. To try and protect the core of industry and business. To keep people in their homes and avoid widespread bankruptcy. To prevent  runs on the banks and  a failure of the banking system.

In my view much of  traditional economic activity - travel, fashion, shopping,  buying cars, renovating will take a very big back step as we wrestle with widespread quarantines, disruption of production and  possibly  tens of thousands of premature deaths. _(there's a growth industry. Buy into funeral parlours.._) The sooner we realise that is what we need to do and stop attempting to force  feed a traditional consumer  led recovery the quicker we will find ways to strengthen our community.

Otherwise bring on the bottom feeders..


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

Some current thoughts in the UK from the past Treasurer

_The former UK chancellor, *George Osborne*, has urged the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to use this week’s budget to introduce immediate measures to help individuals and smaller companies cope with the economic shock of the coronavirus, saying he would expect the UK to see an upsurge in cases in the coming weeks. 

The Guardian political correspondent *Peter Walker* reports that Osborne told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I’m not an epidemiologist, but I can’t help noticing that the UK cases are quite like the Italian cases were two weeks ago. And they’ve gone and sealed off the whole of northern Italy, and an enormous city like Milan has been closed. I’m not saying we will be there, but we could be there in the next two or three weeks. If I was chancellor I don’t want some complicated scheme that’s working in six months’ time. I need to use the tools that are available to me right now._
*
Ideas could include direct cash grants to people such as the self-employed, to “create an incentive that if they feel ill they stay at home”, and for smaller businesses with low cash reserves to be let off national insurance or other taxes for a period, Osborne said.
*
_The argument over longer-term fiscal rules could be set aide while the economy dealt with “a very short, sharp shock to the system”, he added.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-5e660f7d8f08c2df6d275e04#liveblog-navigation_


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

European Stock exchanges seeing 7-10% falls at the moment.

_Global stock markets have suffered their biggest falls since the 2008 financial crisis while the oil price crashed amid panic selling because of the double threat of a coronavirus-driven global recession and an oil price war.

*Julia Kollewe* reports that the FTSE 100 index in London plunged almost 9% and fell through 6,000 points when trading began on Monday morning. It is currently trading 74% lower at 5,991, down 471 points. The index is on track for its worst one-day fall since 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers heralded the onset of the global financial crisis. Oil stocks are the biggest fallers, with BP and Shell down 18%, while the travel company Tui dropped 14%.

The FTSE 100 is trading at levels last seen at the time of the Brexit vote.

As panic selling spread across Europe, Germany’s Dax tumbled 7.5%, France’s Cac dropped 7.6% and Spain’s Ibex lost 7%. The biggest sell-off was Italy, the country worst hit by Covid-19 in Europe, with the FTSE Mib index down 10%._

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-australia-recession-fears-update-latest-news


----------



## Muschu (9 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is what I'm finding, apart from financials, my other shares are holding up o.k.



I’d be interested to know what those other shares are —- if you care to share,


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 March 2020)

basilio said:


> European Stock exchanges seeing 7-10% falls at the moment.




With the sheer speed of this my thinking right now is not so much about the stock market but about who (funds, institutions, etc) will have "blown up" amidst all this?

It wouldn't need a particularly large amount of leverage for someone to have blown up their account with all this. Not so bad if it's one individual, potentially massive problem if there are hedge funds or anything else involving serious $ in that situation. 

Given the speed of the decline, it would be a brave move to say there aren't any such casualties.


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

Muschu said:


> I’d be interested to know what those other shares are —- if you care to share,



Three that I'm happy with are COL, HZR and CWY


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

Margin calls have quadrupled over the last week apparently, so some are definitely hurting, may be some Rolex watches on ebay.


----------



## jbocker (10 March 2020)

The Italians have shut down their cities, which is an amazing step to take. It would be relatively easy by comparison to shut down our Australian cities, as we have some of the remotest cities in the world, Perth being the remotest. More difficult for Melbourne and Sydney. Ramp up export and import of goodies as much as you like as the virus has a short shelf life. Fill up the plane seats and luggage holds with boxes. Want a holiday then have it and spend it in the country, go to all the restaurants and the like as we are then relatively safe if we have isolated ourselves. Hey maybe you can get a 'gift' from the government to encourage you to do so, why not sponsor discount interstate plane fares.
You are still welcome to come into the country but like old Fido the dog you will have to sit in quarantine for a while. Same applies if you want to go overseas and then return.
If you want to see the relatives overseas do it 'skype' style.


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

I wonder what is the impact of share market fall on the ato coffers
While the leftists are beaming, the super accounts of every one are slashed
And what was a 20% return on my trend systems is now negative.
That means payment at the end of the year from the ato...how many like us on this forum in the wider community?
When the market loses 160 billions capitalisation, there is probably a simple formula saying: gov has lost xxx $
I suspect it is in dozen of billions just yesterday..before the economic slow down with GST , SME collapses and unemployment


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

One of the big changes, already happening, may be the acceleration to a *cashless* society.

Transmission through passing of notes, is being identified as a real issue, in the food industry especially


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...us-chillingly-vulnerable-20200309-p54885.html
Will this change that trend into a sharing society;
Will all twist that NY/Paris/London lifestyle so celebrated here in Australia (celebrated only by those who never had to live in the dream of high density suburbs where it is indeed cheaper to keep the human fowl...)
Living on acreage with no real problem if needed to be in isolation for a month two or more...banana leaves for TP ;-)


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> One of the big changes, already happening, may be the acceleration to a *cashless* society.
> 
> Transmission through passing of notes, is being identified as a real issue, in the food industry especially



Further on this,







> University of NSW microbiology professor Peter White echoed the AMA chief’s assessment about the risk posed by cash transactions, warning that enveloped RNA viruses, such as COVID-19, could remain infectious on objects including Australian polymer banknotes “from anywhere between six and 24 hours depending on the temperature and humidity”.





> “The virus on the hands doesn’t last anywhere near as long as it does on cash. We’ve got an enzyme in our sweat that breaks the virus down. It definitely survives longer on inanimate objects like money,” Professor White said.


----------



## jbocker (10 March 2020)

_“The virus on the hands doesn’t last anywhere near as long as it does on cash. We’ve got an enzyme in our sweat that breaks the virus down. It definitely survives longer on inanimate objects like money,” Professor White said._

Don't worry Professor White, money is slipping out of our hands so quick a virus wouldn't have time to jump off.


----------



## MrChow (10 March 2020)

Trump just did a presser and sounded like he had the flu and nobody said anything?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Trump just did a presser and sounded like he had the flu and nobody said anything?



what colour had he turned?


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> One of the big changes, already happening, may be the acceleration to a *cashless* society.
> 
> Transmission through passing of notes, is being identified as a real issue, in the food industry especially



The Governments will be thinking of many aspects of control, that can be piggy backed onto the future proofing of this incident, facial recognition/ temp assessments at points of entry to the Country, as you say cashless transactions enable location tracking in case they need to find someone who may be carrying the virus etc.


----------



## wayneL (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The Governments will be thinking of many aspects of control, that can be piggy backed onto the future proofing of this incident, facial recognition/ temp assessments at points of entry to the Country, as you say cashless transactions enable location tracking in case they need to find someone who may be carrying the virus etc.



Enter the dystopia, never imagined by Orwell. (Rumaging through old boxes looking for my tin foil hat)


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Enter the dystopia, never imagined by Orwell. (Rumaging through old boxes looking for my tin foil hat)



I know, I haven't even had a beer yet.


----------



## basilio (10 March 2020)

A few more disturbing  stories around the spread of the corona virus

1) Another person  from the flight Dr Chris Higgins  was on has been infected. In fact they passed it on to their partner who is a teacher at Carey Grammar. That is the second person on the flight who has turned up sick. Doesn't look good for the 70 patients Dr Higgins directly treated.  This could suggest he is a particularly infectious person

2) Qantas is looking at slashing flights by 30% and possibly  affecting the jobs of 2000 employees. BIG deal. I would be asking what is happening with the other airlines? ( I don't think Virgin will survive this. Anyone want to short it ?)

In terms of knock on effects I think all the businesses and staff  operating from the airports will be in trouble. How could they not be ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/coronavirus-fears-prompt-qantas-to-slash-services/12041358

*Melbourne's Carey Baptist Grammar School confirms teacher tested positive for coronavirus COVID-19*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-09/victoria-records-new-coronavirus-covid-19-cases/12038048


----------



## IFocus (10 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Trump just did a presser and sounded like he had the flu and nobody said anything?




Reported he has been exposed to the virus you would think there is a good chance other top administration officials have also been exposed.

I wouldn't wish the virus on anyone especially Trumps age, the thought of Pence being president is a worry.


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

I already asked and unsure.
If you short a company which collapses, what happens?
Agree cf virgin


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I already asked and unsure.
> If you short a company which collapses, what happens?
> Agree cf virgin



can not find any warrant on Virgin..no one even wants to bet...not a good sign for Virgin employees


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> can not find any warrant on Virgin..no one even wants to bet...not a good sign for Virgin employees



Virgin 2023 bond launched a month ago, $100,  trading OTC for $62. Listed shares about 7c? Chinese partner HNA in strife?


> The challenge for Virgin remains the fixed costs it has for operational leases and asset finance on its aircraft.
> 
> The payments need to be made even though international air travel is plummeting due to efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.


----------



## basilio (10 March 2020)

Came across this website in Bejing.  It gives a good flavour of what is required to minimize the spread of the virus.

*And they have only had 400 cases in a population of  21million people!!
*
I don't think we have any idea of how our lives will be changed for at least a couple of months if/when we go down this path.Having said that the fact is that China is getting on top of this epidemic. 

If it had kept on the trajectory it was going in January  the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands and growing exponentially 
https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/01/22/coronavirus-count-in-beijing


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Came across this website in Bejing.  It gives a good flavour of what is required to minimize the spread of the virus.
> 
> *And they have only had 400 cases in a population of  21million people!!
> *
> ...



1 sick in a complex: whole building locked; one sick in an office, whole office tower locked, you stay there sleep eat for a fortnight if need be

drone checking mask wearing compliance, full tracking of people via car plates, phone, face and gait, and dedicated gov app.

Full tracking of contacts and proximity with gov app giving you a status based on your past travel and presences
if green all good, if red..you are in for a ride
The west is not ready, we see the results in Italy at 500 deaths already.

Saw some pathetic pictures of overwhelmed corridors in hospital in Australia with people waiting for testing
WTF???:
so now everyone in the corridor has a been infected AND most but a couple will receive a clean result (at the time), and so spread it further
Incompetence...Interesting initiative in Adelaide where they do a drive in approach: much more sensible


----------



## MrChow (10 March 2020)

Neat graph of the S&P500


----------



## satanoperca (10 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I already asked and unsure.
> If you short a company which collapses, what happens?
> Agree cf virgin



Try google and researching what a short agreement is. Then you might get a answer to your own stupid question is.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 March 2020)

Regardless of which side of politics you prefer, Daniel Andrews is the current Premier of Victoria and he's being fairly blunt here:



> "The disruption will be significant, it will hurt our economy, it will inconvenience many, many people,"






> "Part of that plan is the inevitability that we will get to the point that rather than one school being closed, all of our schools will be closed," he said.
> 
> "Rather than people simply distancing themselves and quarantining themselves, we may have entire sectors, entire workforces where people are working from home."




It seems pretty clear that he's referring to drastic measures and that it's a question of when not if. Whilst he's the Premier of Victoria, it's a reasonable assumption that other states would be looking at similar measures unless they somehow manage to escape having an outbreak.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ndrews-on-coronavirus-pandemic-plans/12042780

The impacts on the "real" economy in Australia have only just begun it would seem.

As for the markets, well if we're going to see lockdowns in Australia then I find it very hard to believe that all we see as a response from stock market is a drop of just under 20% from peak to bottom based on closing values and all over in 12 trading days. Not impossible I suppose but I doubt it.

Incidentally today marks the 20th anniversary of the peak of the .com bubble which ultimately saw a drop of 78% over the following 2.5 years.


----------



## qldfrog (10 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Try google and researching what a short agreement is. Then you might get a answer to your own stupid question is.



If Mr know it all can point on what happens to a put warrant when the company is not trading, it could maybe helps other more deserving than me DW


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Regardless of which side of politics you prefer, Daniel Andrews is the current Premier of Victoria and he's being fairly blunt here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Whatever happens, I will be giving discretionary retailers a wide berth, I'm also keeping clear of miners outside of battery materials.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 March 2020)

Another aspect to this is anyone who gets a normal flu or even simply just a cold. The only sensible and socially acceptable thing they can do is self-isolate until such time as they are tested and found to not have COVID-19.

Even if the test comes back negative, you only have a cold, well you're still going to be isolating yourself in practice with the only real difference being that you can walk down the street if you choose since your isolation isn't mandated by government. 

You're not going to be going anywhere near others though unless you want to start an outright panic in the event you cough or sneeze or even simply need to speak and someone notices the croaky voice. So you're still housebound effectively.


----------



## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another aspect to this is anyone who gets a normal flu or even simply just a cold. The only sensible and socially acceptable thing they can do is self-isolate until such time as they are tested and found to not have COVID-19.
> 
> Even if the test comes back negative, you only have a cold, well you're still going to be isolating yourself in practice with the only real difference being that you can walk down the street if you choose since your isolation isn't mandated by government.
> 
> You're not going to be going anywhere near others though unless you want to start an outright panic in the event you cough or sneeze or even simply need to speak and someone notices the croaky voice. So you're still housebound effectively.



That is exactly why the transfer rate will drop.
Also the Government is bringing out an advert explaining why, how and what to do, which will improve peoples understanding and behaviour.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is exactly why the transfer rate will drop.
> Also the Government is bringing out an advert explaining why, how and what to do, which will improve peoples understanding and behaviour.




The good side as you say is the transfer rate should drop.

The bad side is the economic one.


----------



## sptrawler (11 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The bad side is the economic one.



I'm not so sure on that, there will be economic fallout, but we needed a correction a cct breaker for the benign way we were meandering along.
The Government got in by default, they have being doing nothing since, the media has been full of regurgitated dribble for the past 12 months.
I think this might actually bring a bit of clarity, to society and the Government.
It might actually jolt people out of the comatose state they have been in IMO, there isn't many better ways to wake people up and get them to focus on what is really important, than to expose their mortality.
As you have posted in this thread, it may have far reaching social and financial outcomes, that we haven't even thought of I think some will be for the better.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I'm not so sure on that, there will be economic fallout, but we needed a correction a cct breaker for the benign way we were meandering along.




Medium to long term absolutely agreed. It'll bring a refocusing.

Once the dust settles I think the political implications will also be broad. It will force change in China which would otherwise have taken far longer to occur.

Short term though it's going to be a huge hit from what I can see. Everything that gets cancelled, and there's already a mounting list from airlines leaving planes on the ground through to concerts not happening, it's all a drop in GDP and it's all going to have an impact.


----------



## tech/a (11 March 2020)

I can’t find an answer to this question

if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you 
Catch it again?
In the same year or next year?

If no then your body has a cure 
If yes then it has a way of defending but not curing 

Like a common cold but potentially deadly.


----------



## Struzball (11 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> I can’t find an answer to this question
> 
> if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
> Catch it again?
> In the same year or next year?




I heard in the news at some point that it can be caught again, but the symptoms less severe.

My opinion on this virus.. if there are multiple strains, deadly vs non-deadly, the one that kills the hosts is going to be out-competed by the one that doesn't kill the hosts.  Before long it will become a non-deadly virus, like the common cold.  

After this northern hemisphere winter, it will probably come around every year and won't make much of an impact.  When deaths stop, nobody will get tested. People won't even know they had it since the symptoms are the same as a cold/flu.


----------



## qldfrog (11 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> I can’t find an answer to this question
> 
> if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
> Catch it again?
> ...



There are definitely some cases of people getting it twice but not sure yet if it is the norm or just different strains of the virus.
As you pointed it is a critical question with huge implications
If your body memory of the virus is too short, it means we can never succeed with vaccine..and it could become a plague on mankind
Always there, killing the weakest..this is the worst case scenario and only treatment not immunisation would help.
there was a young 28y old chinese guy who was declared cured went home then got it again and died
Time will give us more knowledge.
italy system is collapsing but should give us more statistic and confirmations
Will post anything i find on this subject here


----------



## moXJO (11 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> I can’t find an answer to this question
> 
> if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
> Catch it again?
> ...



Last I heard:
If your immune system is still low and the virus is still in your system  it can come back for a second go in a short period of time.

Apparently you can also catch it again after a few months, though not as severe. It's now likely endemic so will more then likely be around every year.


----------



## IFocus (11 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> I can’t find an answer to this question
> 
> if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
> Catch it again?
> ...




Short answer is yes

There are a couple of medical terms used for the "recurrence" which escape me.

One is the virus hides in the body and reappears and two you straight out catch it again.

The thinking is antibodies (is that the correct term?) last only for a short time.

Reported in one Chinese area of a 14% reinfection rate.

Fact is little is really know lots of guesses


----------



## basilio (11 March 2020)

I think one of the huge economic challenges facing everyone will be keeping the economic wheels turning when the biggest priority is protecting people lives. 

I don't believe we can still continue to have a maximum profit focused economy while doing whatever is necessary to minimise deaths an associated health pressures on our society.

Italy has already postponed payments on mortgages while the country is in crisis. I believe urgent thought should be given to how countries, businesses and individuals handle  loan repayments and rollovers of debts. Perhaps this is the time to declare " force majeure"?


----------



## rederob (11 March 2020)

Let's not forget that Hubei, which is COVID-19's global epicentre, has twice the population of Australia and to date has experienced just over 3000 deaths.  This compares with *influenza* here where on average it causes 3,500 *deaths*, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year.
It's also noteworthy that new infections in China as a whole have declined markedy.
Other points to bear in mind are that COVID-19 is partial to colder temperatures and the northern hemisphere is coming out of winter.  Seasonality has a massive impact on virus spread, hospitalisation, and deaths.
Common flu shots are only now becoming available in Oz are are not yet recommended for older people as immunity is shorter lived.  Our GP recommended we wait later into April before getting our shots (we being over 60).  These may not affect COVID-19 but will at least reduce the potential number of people fronting to GP's with the common flu.
Getting back to the above numbers, GP consultations, which from today can be carried out under Medicare arrangements via social media and other face-to-face platforms, will definitely increase through the fear factor alone.  Beyond that it becomes something of a guessing game.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2020)

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

please note the differences.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2020)

Always winners and losers abounding. From a US focused fundie (talking the book)


> *I note that we have no meaningful investments in sectors that have been the most impacted, including tourism, energy and banks.*
> 
> In the short term there may be some companies in our portfolio that will be negatively impacted should the market downturn persist but there will also be winners – and overall, we anticipate the portfolio to perform well.





> *An example of a big short-term winner is Instacart,* the leading grocery deliver platform in the US. Instacart has experience phenomenal growth over the past several weeks as home deliveries have soared, with the company adapting quickly to take advantage of the opportunity.


----------



## sptrawler (11 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> I can’t find an answer to this question
> 
> if you catch Coronavirus and get over it can you
> Catch it again?
> ...



I think you are closer to the truth, than you realise.


----------



## CBerg (11 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Always winners and losers abounding. From a US focused fundie (talking the book)



I was chatting to my mother about the impact yesterday over coffee, I made the point that for people to self isolate it really has never been easier than right now and to stay well supplied/occupied.

Uber eats - you won't go without your favourite take away.
Coles / Woolworths - get all your basics delivered to the door(provided you don't need toilet paper).
Booze delivery - not as silly as you think
Netflix / Stan - entertainment through the internet


I've been crook with a cold since last Monday, I had enough supplies on hand for a week. Family kindly re-upped my supplies over the weekend and I'm almost back to 100%. If trucks stop running we're f*cked but I think Governments realise that too.


----------



## SirRumpole (11 March 2020)

Great opportunity to market a self test kit if that's possible. Get it from the Chemist, test yourself instead of clogging up doctors or hospital waiting rooms.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> .. for people to self isolate it really has never been easier than right now and to stay well supplied/occupied.
> 
> Uber eats - you won't go without your favourite take away.
> Coles / Woolworths - get all your basics delivered to the door(provided you don't need toilet paper).
> ...



Doctors /medications need to be sorted ... (but can listen to nice music while U wait)


----------



## Belli (11 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Doctors /medications need to be sorted ... (but can listen to nice music while U wait)




And the TV channels in the waiting areas need to be changed.  To have them on a station which continually advertises Funeral Insurance.  In a medical facility?  Really?


----------



## Austwide (11 March 2020)

My son suffers Sinus problems and get migraines. This happened again on Monday and went to the docs on Tuesday for a certificate.

Doc said, stay of work until Friday and if things haven't changed call the Virus hotline.
He called the hotline (40 min wait) on the tuesday as he wanted to return to work.

They said basically, since you haven't travelled, had contact with possible victims and have no symptoms, we consider you no risk and that's about it.

Only small numbers here, but there is cost to him or/and his employer for no ones benefit but then multiply that by how many cases.

He went to a different doctor to see if he could get a return to work cert.

That doc said he couldn't give a return to work cert unless he was tested, but he can't test him becauce he has no symptoms.

Seems like things will only get worse due to the fear and not the actual virus.


----------



## Knobby22 (11 March 2020)

Austwide said:


> My son suffers Sinus problems and get migraines. This happened again on Monday and went to the docs on Tuesday for a certificate.
> 
> Doc said, stay of work until Friday and if things haven't changed call the Virus hotline.
> He called the hotline (40 min wait) on the tuesday as he wanted to return to work.
> ...




Which state are you in Austwide?


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 March 2020)

Austwide said:


> That doc said he couldn't give a return to work cert unless he was tested, but he can't test him becauce he has no symptoms



All other issues aside, that sort of bureaucracy isn’t at all helpful.


----------



## sptrawler (11 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Great opportunity to market a self test kit if that's possible. Get it from the Chemist, test yourself instead of clogging up doctors or hospital waiting rooms.



Great idea Rumpy, posting out a test kit to all Australians so they can test if they become unwell, is a great idea and would solve the problem.
Whether or not is practical or achievable, is another story.


----------



## CBerg (11 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Great idea Rumpy, posting out a test kit to all Australians so they can test if they become unwell, is a great idea and would solve the problem.
> Whether or not is practical or achievable, is another story.



Stuff it, get a bulk order and send 1 to everyone.

Get the local members of parliament to be responsible for sending the kits out!
They'll think great marketing opportunity, society actually gets a boost from their local mp for once.

My letterbox is full of their junk every month!


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 March 2020)

I’m hearing reports from self-employed tradies etc that work is drying up in a big way. 

Meanwhile Dark Mofo festival in Hobart has been cancelled this year. That’s going to have a pretty big impact economically in Tas since it generates considerable activity and tourism.

There are also rapidly escalating concerns in critical industry eg utilities. The main concern is about major maintenance projects - do it and risk not having enough workers, logistics problems etc versus don’t do it and risk failure (blackouts) at a later time and also need government exemption from certain laws.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 March 2020)

This is an interesting article from the ABC on where we are at now. It was written nearly one month ago and is spot on.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ins-customers-economy-business-sales/11965874

This is her twitter handle. She is a keeper. 

https://twitter.com/NassimKhadem

gg


----------



## Austwide (11 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Which state are you in Austwide?




Victoria, Melb


----------



## Knobby22 (11 March 2020)

Austwide said:


> Victoria, Melb




So am I. The State Government are rolling out a program across all the major hospitals so they can increase testing levels. You can get tested but you have to wait in a long queue for hours.


----------



## sptrawler (11 March 2020)

Woolies stamping down hard on scalpers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/con...ut-panic-buyer-s-remorse-20200311-p5494p.html


----------



## rederob (11 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> So am I. The State Government are rolling out a program across all the major hospitals so they can increase testing levels. You can get tested but you have to wait in a long queue for hours.



I guess I don't understand the pandemonium.
Whenever I got sick I stayed home and only ever got a doctor's certificate after I got better, if one was needed.  Helps having a long-term family doctor!
Unless I thought bed rest was not sufficient, I would never contemplate going my doctor.  Having a test for COVID-19 for the sake of having a test "to be sure" seems a bit pointless.  Waiting with a lot of other people who probably *are *sick seems to me to be a recipe for disaster.  This proved to be the case in Wuhan's hospitals in the early days where the main cause of the spread were the hospitals themselves until they became aware of what had to be done to mitigate risk.  The success of their efforts shows the health issue can be largely resolved in a matter of months in the height of their flu season.
This time next year we will have a better idea of the actual mortality rate of COVID-19.  With SARS and MERS early rates were exceptionally high as most data was from hospitals where those who got very sick also died in large number.  But not everyone who was infected needed hospitalisation and these data were later captured and led to reduced mortality rates. 
Maybe COVID-19 will ultimately prove to be a severe viral flu, but as I read the data it so far looks overblown unless you are old and have pre-existing medical conditions.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 March 2020)

rederob said:


> I guess I don't understand the pandemonium.
> Whenever I got sick I stayed home and only ever got a doctor's certificate after I got better, if one was needed.




Short answer is that many are employed under arrangements where there is little or even no sick leave without that certificate.

Person gets sick on Sunday afternoon, can't get into a doctor until Tuesday. Off to work on Monday it is then......

To be clear I don't advocate that but I'm aware that it's the reality for many.


----------



## Rsthree (11 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’m hearing reports from self-employed tradies etc that work is drying up in a big way.
> 
> Meanwhile Dark Mofo festival in Hobart has been cancelled this year. That’s going to have a pretty big impact economically in Tas since it generates considerable activity and tourism.
> 
> There are also rapidly escalating concerns in critical industry eg utilities. The main concern is about major maintenance projects - do it and risk not having enough workers, logistics problems etc versus don’t do it and risk failure (blackouts) at a later time and also need government exemption from certain laws.




One of my clients is an event management company and they are starting to feel the pain. They've already had cancellations of a number of their industry events.  They would employ up to 20 other suppliers for stage build, lighting, signage etc. So the the ripple effect will be felt quickly.


----------



## satanoperca (11 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Maybe COVID-19 will ultimately prove to be a severe viral flu, but as I read the data it so far looks overblown unless you are old and have pre-existing medical conditions.




So you are sick, old (>75years), overweight, haven't looked after yourself (no vegies or fruit in the diet, but plenty of sugar), a smoker, don't exercise, then be VERY VERY Scared. 
Exclusion, those that have underlying medical issues that they did not contribute to.
For everyone else, look forward to a headache and sore throat, but if the majority play to this scaremongering, then look forward to not having a job, a house or being able to feed your children.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So



Bring on the new Sparta, eh, bud?


----------



## IFocus (11 March 2020)

This is how the numbers work and where you are during an out break its very good.


----------



## Humid (11 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Short answer is that many are employed under arrangements where there is little or even no sick leave without that certificate.
> 
> Person gets sick on Sunday afternoon, can't get into a doctor until Tuesday. Off to work on Monday it is then......
> 
> To be clear I don't advocate that but I'm aware that it's the reality for many.




Can’t pharmacies write sick notes?


----------



## frugal.rock (11 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Can’t pharmacies write sick notes?



Yes, at $20 a pop, or so.
Maybe some are free?

F.Rock


----------



## basilio (11 March 2020)

Be interesting to see what ScoMo does to keep the economy and people and businesses alive over the next 6-8 months.

Interesting article offer the suggestions and rationale of 6 different economists. Covers much of the ground ASF posters have suggested.

* Experts on how coronavirus will wallop Australia's economy – and what the government must do *
Economists say a recession is now nearly inevitable. The only question is how long it will last
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...alias-economy-and-what-the-government-must-do


----------



## banco (11 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So you are sick, old (>75years), overweight, haven't looked after yourself (no vegies or fruit in the diet, but plenty of sugar), a smoker, don't exercise, then be VERY VERY Scared.
> Exclusion, those that have underlying medical issues that they did not contribute to.
> For everyone else, look forward to a headache and sore throat, but if the majority play to this scaremongering, then look forward to not having a job, a house or being able to feed your children.




What percentage of the over 60 population would you consider to be an acceptable loss?


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Can’t pharmacies write sick notes?



They can yes.

Trouble is that whilst it's not the majority, there are definitely some hard line employers out there on this sort of thing which in practice make it difficult for employees who are genuinely sick to take time off.

Not everyone is like that of course, but they exist and as this virus has very clearly shown it's the least protected which puts all in danger not the best protected. Only needs one shoddy market in China, only needs one sick person still commuting on the train, etc and we're all stuffed.


----------



## basilio (11 March 2020)

I've just been to our local public hospital. The wife is not so good.

Have to say every time I go I thank the universe for living in a country with a quality public health system that works well and won't bankrupt us like,  say, the US.

*Having said that it is also clear that our current system will be incapable of handling anything like the scores/hundreds/thousands of potential Corona Virus patient*s. It works very hard to full capacity at the moment.  That is why the government is scrambling  to create pop up fever clinics, tele health diagnosis, and a host of other imaginative ways to somehow cope.  

Wayne copied in a very sobering story from an Italian doctor highlighting how their excellent health system is collapsing under the pressure. The Chinese hospitals have also had huge problems despite the heroic efforts of their doctors and health professionals. Everything that is done to slow down and spread the infection rate will save lives. Given the age bracket of most of ASF members it will ours and our friends and close relatives.


----------



## banco (11 March 2020)

If an employer refuses somebody sick leave and other employees contract covid19 from them would be curious to know if the employer is liable?


----------



## hja (11 March 2020)

banco said:


> If an employer refuses somebody sick leave and other employees contract covid19 from them would be curious to know if the employer is liable?



And would that open up the way for similar situations over other viruses? the flu (influenza)?


----------



## satanoperca (11 March 2020)

banco said:


> What percentage of the over 60 population would you consider to be an acceptable loss?



10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations


----------



## IFocus (11 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> 10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations




As far as I am aware only under 9 years olds are the only age group that have not had a fatality.

All other including yours whatever it is have seen fatalities including *healthy people *of all age groups albeit in low numbers.

I am surrounded by older Australians and have an elderly parent and in law plus lifelong friends who are fighting immune diseases. They are all aware of the possible out come and much of that depends on the behavior of healthy people.

  I guess it will come down to the values Australians hold dear.............and yours?


----------



## basilio (11 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> 10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations




Number of people in Australia over 60 is about 5 million.  So your suggesting 500,000 deaths from the virus is acceptable ? In 2017 around 145,000 people over 60 died. I suggest adding another 300,000 deaths would be horrific terms of the social impact. 

Lets not go down that path..

https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death


----------



## qldfrog (12 March 2020)

WHO officially declared a Pandemic.
They could not wait till June.
Their bonds will now be released , investors money in smoke..no crying from me, and money used for hopefully useful purpose in poor countries
The amounts involved in the fight are staggering as Italy shows
10 billion euro so far there
With diminishing receipts.


----------



## moXJO (12 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> 10% seems acceptable. Might reduce global warming and save future generations



You might want to revisit this comment. 

10% is realistically possible.
Not acceptable. 

Brothers, Sisters, Fathers, Mothers, Sons and Daughters are all in the firing line. So far numbers stay down with proactive measures.


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2020)

WA state premiere on ABC radio yesterday laying out the states plans saying the advice to him and by inference Australian leaders (they are all getting the same advice) is the peak will be August.

The state police commissioner was also on for his monthly talk back (he is the states emergency control officer) laying down the actions that will be coming.


----------



## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> WA state premiere on ABC radio yesterday laying out the states plans saying the advice to him and by inference Australian leaders (they are all getting the same advice) is the peak will be August.
> 
> The state police commissioner was also on for his monthly talk back (he is the states emergency control officer) laying down the actions that will be coming.



Going off the post you put up, which is only mathematical probability, it indicated the peak would be much sooner e.g 60 days making it end of April, May.
It will be interesting to see which proves right.


----------



## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

It will be interesting to see how the stimulus package goes, it is o.k to give people money, but if there is nothing on the shelves it wont help much. That goes for building supplies, as well as household produce.
Also if things are locked down, peoples spending will contract like never before, so interesting times ahead.IMO
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/federal-government-coronavirus-economic-stimulus/12042972

Hopefully this peaks and moves on very quickly, a lot will depend on how vigilant people are, in not infecting others and not getting infected themselves.


----------



## Knobby22 (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Going off the post you put up, which is only mathematical probability, it indicated the peak would be much sooner e.g 60 days making it end of April, May.
> It will be interesting to see which proves right.



I was listening to a statistician last week on the ABC, and he was saying peaking August, only really taking off in early April.
Hopefully finishing November.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

*stimulus*

More than 6 million welfare recipients, including pensioners, carers, veterans, families, young people and jobseekers will get a one-off cash payment of $750 from March 31.

"The biggest beneficiaries of that will be pensioners," Mr Morrison said. "They comprise around half of those who will receive those payments, but they also will be extended to those in family tax benefits, which obviously goes to those in earning households."

Nearly 700,000 small and medium businesses will receive cash payments of between $2,000 and $25,000 to help pay wages or hire extra staff. The measure is the largest part of the package, and is estimated to cost $6.7 billion.

The stimulus package also includes $1.3 billion in support payments to keep apprentices in their jobs amid fears the spread of the coronavirus could have a crippling effect on employment.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> *stimulus*
> 
> More than 6 million welfare recipients, including pensioners, carers, veterans, families, young people and jobseekers will get a one-off cash payment of $750 from March 31.
> 
> ...




Sounds like a good package, will be interesting to see how Labor reacts (but irrelevant).


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 March 2020)

I see that the US has suspended all travel from the EU.

This is getting rather drastic yes.

(I'd provide the link but it's being painful for whatever reason. Source is the BBC news website).


----------



## greggles (12 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I see that the US has suspended all travel from the EU.
> 
> This is getting rather drastic yes.
> 
> (I'd provide the link but it's being painful for whatever reason. Source is the BBC news website).




It's all over CNN.com now. 

Man, airlines are gonna get killed. Short the hell out of them, they are going to suffer some heavy losses on the US market tonight.

This announcement is going to rip whatever confidence remains in the market. I think we're going to see another bloodbath tonight, possibly the biggest.


----------



## MrChow (12 March 2020)

Forrest Gump just lost the ASX $100B in an hour.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Sounds like a good package, will be interesting to see how Labor reacts (but irrelevant).



GFC response was $51 bill,.. in 2008 dollars.

More to come, keep powder dry.


----------



## MrChow (12 March 2020)

Unless this lasts 4-6 months without peaking Q3 should be stronger than Q2.

What is different though is that we will be in Winter.


----------



## satanoperca (12 March 2020)

Within a month all inter continetal travel will be band.
As the GP is going around expect infection rates to skyrocket in 4 weeks.
By the end of april all gov schools close.
By the end of June we will be in a deep recession.
But there must be opportunities out there.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 March 2020)

greggles said:


> This announcement is going to rip whatever confidence remains in the market. I think we're going to see another bloodbath tonight, possibly the biggest.



I think we're at the point now where "unthinkable" things are becoming distinctly possible. All sorts of things could end up broke financially and there's all sorts of possible geopolitical implications from all this too.

What I hope beyond all else though is that it doesn't end in war. 

As for the markets, well the ASX has hit a new low so the previous one didn't last long.


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> What I hope beyond all else though is that it doesn't end in war.




Wars have started over a lot less but currently don't see any possible triggers.


----------



## greggles (12 March 2020)

Is anyone else of the view that the worldwide coronavirus outbreak could have as profound an impact on the global economy as the GFC did?

At this point, it's hard to quantify the economic cost, but I suspect it could be an eye watering figure after all is said and done.

There are many more corporate collapses coming. 150 companies in the US have warned of an earnings hit, and I suspect that is just the tip of the iceberg.


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Going off the post you put up, which is only mathematical probability, it indicated the peak would be much sooner e.g 60 days making it end of April, May.
> It will be interesting to see which proves right.




Remember its the interactions that gives rise to the maths so you can slow / skew the numbers down by containment and that changes depending on how aggressive you get which is what is happening in Australia hence the delay in peak.........hopefully with lower peak numbers, then everyone gets treatment that requires it.......hopefully.


----------



## basilio (12 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Wars have started over a lot less but currently don't see any possible triggers.




Who needs a trigger ?  How about just the desperation of millions of people sick, dying  and untreated and a breakdown in the current financial and economic structures of society. 

Be scary to see what is happening in Iran, Iraq, Palestine, Nth Korea just for a start


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 March 2020)

greggles said:


> Is anyone else of the view that the worldwide coronavirus outbreak could have as profound an impact on the global economy as the GFC did?




My basic thinking is that if someone pulls out a lot of economic charts, so things like manufacturing in various countries, education sector, house prices, stock prices, all sorts of economic statistics, then rather a lot of them will show an inflection point at the beginning of 2020 from which there will in practice be no recovery.

It's like the GFC - it's not hard to find a stock or other economic chart which still hasn't recovered as of now and probably never will. For that matter, well there's still things that haven't recovered from the 1987 crash or the 1973-74 oil embargo.

There'll be some permanent changes that's a given. An event which stuffs up business as usual for everyone from share traders to musicians isn't going to be brushed aside easily.


----------



## basilio (12 March 2020)

Stimulus package is all very good. But money can only go so far in dealing with the spread of this virus and  the consequent impact on, basically, everything.

The real deal will be constructing and implementing the effective social and physica tools to quarantine people and slow/stop the spread of the virus.  There is absolutely no way much  traditional economic activity can be done in this scenario so , somehow, people have to be kept solvent and business viable if not actually making a profit. 

A partial solution is the government employing/paying people and businesses to undertake the monitoring and supporting elements that are required to stop the virus.

In the end we want to come out alive, not bankrupt or homeless and with probably everyone taking a haircut but not getting scalped.


----------



## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

BHP $26 that is some fall.


----------



## tech/a (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> BHP $26 that is some fall.




You'll have to be quick for these opportunities.
When they turn they will ROCKET!

Demand will return.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Who needs a trigger ? How about just the desperation of millions of people sick, dying and untreated and a breakdown in the current financial and economic structures of society.




An economy that's falling in a heap in an environment where nationalism has already been rising for quite some time. 

I'm not predicting that anyone starts dropping bombs tomorrow but it could plausibly end up there depending on how things play out politically.


----------



## basilio (12 March 2020)

One of the most dangerous flashpoints for the spread of the  virus is ensuring people self quarantine if they are at risk of falling ill. We will see this happen across hundreds of thousands of people and these days many will be on casual rates with no sick pay.
On balance most of these people will not have significant savings and will be living from pay check to pay check.

The risk that they will decide to work on rather than be evicted is too high to allow. Other countries like Singapore and Italy and even the UK are realising they need to underwrite people forced to stay at home to ensure their co operation and to make sure they don't get thrown onto the streets.

I don't think the stimulus package properly addresses that issue and it is crucial to somehow controlling the spread of the virus.

_*What other support is there for people unable to work?*
The Government is waiving the waiting period for the sickness allowance and Newstart.

"A casual employee who would be impacted by coronavirus and for medical reasons would need to self-isolate, or, indeed, contracted the coronavirus and would not be able to work, they can access what is currently called the sickness payment," Mr Morrison said.

The Prime Minister claimed applicants could expect to be processed in five days. *However, recent figures provided to Senate estimates show applicants for sickness allowance typically face processing times of a month or more.*

He also confirmed no changes to eligibility will be made, meaning the asset test for the sickness allowance — set at "liquid assets" of $5,500 or more — will continue to apply.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/coronavirus-stimulus-explainer/12048632_


----------



## qldfrog (12 March 2020)

_He also confirmed no changes to eligibility will be made, meaning the asset test for the sickness allowance — set at "liquid assets" of $5,500 or more — will continue to apply._
This should be not asset tested: do I stay home or spread?
if I get nothing, and lose money, after all, for me, it is just a bad fever..F them....

should not be mean tested but virus tested with a one day allowance for testing delay; better than giving money for pensioner with no incite to stop the virus. 
so yes everyone could claim a day off paid with that allowance but that would slow the spread.


----------



## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

Woolies coming to the party and paying casuals if quarantine requires it.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...hifts-due-to-coronavirus-20200312-p549cs.html


----------



## basilio (12 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Woolies coming to the party and paying casuals if quarantine requires it.
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...hifts-due-to-coronavirus-20200312-p549cs.html




*BIG DEAL !  *Makes sense and great leadership.  I suggest they have deep pockets and good cash flow which is great. Have to see how smaller businesses try to cope.

Frankly I think it should be sickness allowance paid  at the full pension rate  quickly and simply and part of the governments strategy to combat the spread and support  people and the business community. While this is great for Woolworths employees I can't see it spreading to the hospitality industry for instance.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

I also saw somewhere Woolies, or was it Coles, was refusing to pay refunds to those people trying to return XS bog paper.

Way to go.


----------



## sptrawler (12 March 2020)

basilio said:


> *BIG DEAL !  *Makes sense and great leadership.  I suggest they have deep pockets and good cash flow which is great. Have to see how smaller businesses try to cope.
> .



I thought it was a fair and decent thing to do and hopefully the bigger companies follow suit.
With regard smaller companies, isn't there special concessions for them? I thought I heard they were getting payments to keep people on?


----------



## qldfrog (12 March 2020)

basilio said:


> While this is great for Woolworths employees I can't see it spreading to the hospitality industry for instance.



Cause I doubt they actually could: their aim now is to survive, seen today local cafe girl who got dismissed and others at reduced shift..the pain is here already
as for the owners, I suspect they have sleepless nights lately with falling attendance


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2020)

US  are Limit Down (again)




Thx joules


----------



## MrChow (12 March 2020)

I feel at these levels around -25% alot of the downside is already priced in.

Consider:
The market is -25% after 41 people have died from Coronavirus in the U.S and Australia
To get another -25% is going to require 1000s to die from Coronavirus in the U.S and Australia

So you'd be essentially taking an even money bet from here -50% or not?  With the 2nd half task much harder than the sunk cost of the 1st half.


----------



## Tyler Durden (12 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> I feel at these levels around -25% alot of the downside is already priced in.
> 
> Consider:
> The market is -25% after 41 people have died from Coronavirus in the U.S and Australia
> ...




It's not solely about deaths though, it's more about the disruption that this virus causes, eg. travel bans, store closures/limitations, self quarantines etc.


----------



## Tyler Durden (12 March 2020)

Seems like market across the board is being slaughtered, but what type of businesses would flourish in these situations?


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

I'll stick my head on the chopping block and ponder the unthinkable.

Could Boeing go broke?

My basic thinking as a few dot points:

1. With the economy tanking in pretty much every country and travel and airlines being hit harder than most, the world now has significantly more aircraft than it needs. Quite a few planes are sitting on the ground going nowhere.

2. Travel demand will likely bounce back quite slowly given the broader economic impacts of the crisis, that is consumers won't be in a rush to spend on travel since they've lost money etc, so it is likely to be some time before there's an actual need for new aircraft which can't be met by simply returning parked planes to service.

3. Airlines are being particularly hard hit and will be looking for every possible opportunity to cut costs. Fleet renewal becomes secondary to survival.

4. At least some airlines with existing orders will likely default in practice indeed the airlines themselves could well go broke. 

5. Boeing already has a major problem with the 737 MAX planes.

6. Boeing share price is now down 63% from its peak. 

It's a bit far fetched I suppose but major market declines and crises do usually claim someone big and this company did come to mind at the global level.

At the local level, well no coincidence that the one that comes to mind is Virgin. It's shares are worth just 6 cents now, down from a high over $2 and down 50% in the past fortnight. 

Am I being too radical in this thinking? Too bearish?


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

Being reported now that the Grand Prix will be cancelled.

We seem to have reached the point of major disruption now. Can't fly from Europe to the US, everything from car races to arts festivals being cancelled, etc. It's starting to meaningfully shut down normal activity.

If it keeps up at this rate then by next weekend there won't be much left running. 

Oh, and the Dow's down over 2000 points.


----------



## ducati916 (13 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'll stick my head on the chopping block and ponder the unthinkable.
> 
> Could Boeing go broke?
> 
> ...




Boeing's commercial division issues are significant. Re. bankruptcy, they could be saved by their military division which is still profitable.

jog on
duc


----------



## tinhat (13 March 2020)

What's wrong with sticking a pair of shoes on a school kid as an economic stimulus? Who cares about metal birds? They are not grey butcher birds, if they were, then I would be concerned. Shoes for school kids.


----------



## Humid (13 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Being reported now that the Grand Prix will be cancelled.
> 
> We seem to have reached the point of major disruption now. Can't fly from Europe to the US, everything from car races to arts festivals being cancelled, etc. It's starting to meaningfully shut down normal activity.
> 
> ...




Hopefully they shut the market


----------



## Humid (13 March 2020)

“The economic impacts of coronavirus will be made worse by the casualisation of the workforce and the decades-long freeze on Newstart and other welfare payments.“


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

It seems everything is unwinding at a rapid rate around the world.
A few thoughts

1) *If/when the virus gets into residential care homes it will be a disaster all around the block*. It is clear now that hospitals will be unable and unwilling to  aggressively  treat older patients with severe symptoms. In fact it seems unclear what will happen to these people.  But I can see the mortality in these homes rising rapidly

2)*  Almost all the homes are for profit institutions. *I would be concerned about their stability if/when many people die rooms are left empty staff  fall away as well.  I would be particularly concerned about the status and security of the bonds they hold from clients.

3) *I will be reviewing my affairs  and financial arrangements ASAP. * If this all goes pear shaped people in their 60's and 70's will face the highest risks and IMV the pressure on hospitals will result in some very serious triaging of resources. Making sure everything is well ordered "just in case" while I can at least ensures  it can happen with a minimum of fuss .

4)* I don't have confidence in the legal system to take care of the dead clients interest ahead of their own. * If there is a big spike in deaths amongst older people bottlenecks in admin and self interest could make things very difficult for intended will recipients. Dragged out admin costs and related party transactions  will soar.


----------



## banco (13 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Hopefully they shut the market




How does that help though? If you are insolvent the fact that your shares aren't trading isn't going to change that.

As for boeing if any manufacturer is too big to fail it's boeing.


----------



## Knobby22 (13 March 2020)

Is anyone looking at or seen an article as to whether there will be money supply liquidity problems? I saw the Fed were printing money yeaterday? You know GFC type issues?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 March 2020)

All of this is a *Minsky Moment *_par excellence.
_
In fact it is likely to redefine the concept, which refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. _Minsky Moment_ is named after economist Hyman _Minsky_ and defines the point in time where the sudden decline in market sentiment inevitably leads to a market crash.

And Covid-19 is the grain of sand dropped onto the heap that rendered the system unstable. And down she came


----------



## Humid (13 March 2020)

banco said:


> How does that help though? If you are insolvent the fact that your shares aren't trading isn't going to change that.
> 
> As for boeing if any manufacturer is too big to fail it's boeing.




I'm not insolvent


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And Covid-19 is the grain of sand dropped onto the heap that rendered the system unstable. And down she came



Grain of sand ?? Che ? Bloody big boulder I would have thought !


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

This piece of news could cause some consternation.

*There is heightened concern at the White House *after a picture emerged of a top Brazilian government aide, who has tested positive for coronavirus, standing right next to Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago last weekend.

Mar-a-Lago possibly infected with Corona Virus ? Donald Trump having close contact with someone who has tested positive ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...photo-brazilian-aide-bolsonaro-contact-latest


----------



## MrChow (13 March 2020)

XAO -31.9%

Imagine if this doesn't peak until Europe / U.S Winter 9 months away.


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

If you can't see them do they exist ?

* Anger grows at Trump administration's coronavirus testing failures *
Donald Trump claimed ‘We have tested heavily’ but in fact just eight tests were carried out on Tuesday, as even allies speak out
Anger is mounting in the US over the Trump administration’s failure to test for coronavirus on a scale that could contain the outbreak and mitigate its most devastating impacts.

On Thursday the lack of testing capacity for Covid-19 was recognised in blunt terms by one of the top US officials dealing with the crisis. Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, described the current state of affairs as “a failing” at a hearing of the House oversight committee.

From Congress to state capitals across the country, politicians of both main parties have shown rare bipartisan agreement that the pace of federal testing is woefully inadequate. Congress members who were given private briefings by Trump administration officials on Thursday expressed shock and outrage that so far only 11,000 tests have been conducted in a country of 327 million people.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-us-testing-failures-trump-administration


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

basilio said:


> 1) *If/when the virus gets into residential care homes it will be a disaster all around the block*. It is clear now that hospitals will be unable and unwilling to aggressively treat older patients with severe symptoms. In fact it seems unclear what will happen to these people. But I can see the mortality in these homes rising rapidly
> 
> 2)* Almost all the homes are for profit institutions. *I would be concerned about their stability if/when many people die rooms are left empty staff fall away as well. I would be particularly concerned about the status and security of the bonds they hold from clients.




This is my biggest concern in the whole thing actually since my mother is permanently in one of these homes. If the virus gets in well then I'm realistic as to the likely outcome.  In her case it's somewhat worse in that the reason she's there relates to physical health but mentally she's fully alert and aware of what's going on with all this via the news. Those who aren't fully functioning mentally are perhaps better off in a sense.

As for the bond, well that's less of a concern than life obviously but supposedly it's government guaranteed.


----------



## SirRumpole (13 March 2020)

The situation on the markets is insane in my view.

Yes, it was over valued, but this is sheer panic.

There will be a period of reduced economic activity where governments have to take strict measures to restrict the virus, but IF they do then economic activity will gradually increase and markets will recover (although not I believe to the previous heights).

There needs to be assurance from governments that they are doing and will do whatever t takes to stop the spread of the virus. I'm not sure that Trump and co are doing this at the moment. Te medical experts have to take over the medical situation and the politicians should deal with the economic situation.


----------



## sptrawler (13 March 2020)

Humid said:


> “The economic impacts of coronavirus will be made worse by the casualisation of the workforce and the decades-long freeze on Newstart and other welfare payments.“



That is probably why the cash injection will be spent quickly, it will be like Christmas, getting that amount of money in one hit.
It will be nice to see struggling people enjoying themselves for once.
The other thing is, the Government will get some figures back on the real cost, as opposed to the modelled cost, of giving welfare recipients money, as a lot will come back in gst and income tax from wages.


----------



## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

The second stimulus will be with inheritance


----------



## Bill M (13 March 2020)

Coronavirus vaccine: Canadian company claims to have found a cure and could do human tests in weeks

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/8652a2d98759d609cf8e73e07d7058fc


----------



## qldfrog (13 March 2020)

Inheritance:Gov debt free stimulus


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The second stimulus will be with inheritance




Indeed. If I was (as I am now doing...) to write a different take on the possible fallout of the corona virus it would look like this

1) There will be a big increase in deaths of generally older and sicker people.  While individually these are a tragedy in the longer run it will result in  substantial lessening  of  pension/social security costs and health costs. This will take the pressure off  many current pension funds (if they survive at all of course..)

2) The sharp increase in deaths of older people will  fast forward intergenerational transfers of property and other assets. This could be a welcome boost to many families currently struggling to get into the housing market

3) The possibility of many properties coming onto the housing market could control increases in housing costs.  (A deep recession can also do this...)

4) There will almost certainly be an increase in local manufacturing as  industries re form and local companies look for  a diversity of supply

5) Hopefully... after such a calamity we might learn some lessons about preparing for forseeable pandemics and do it better.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

Bill M said:


> Coronavirus vaccine: Canadian company claims to have found a cure and could do human tests in weeks




Whether or not they really have it sorted, this will trigger the bounce is my thinking.

Market falls extremely hard > a possible good news story > here comes the bounce. 

Just my thoughts. I could of course be completely wrong.


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

Check out a preview of the latest Honest Government ad on the Corona Virus.
Audio only

HGA_Coronavirus_AUDIO_PREVIEW.mp3


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

basilio said:


> 4) There will almost certainly be an increase in local manufacturing as industries re form and local companies look for a diversity of supply




There was already a bit of a move that way before the virus issue, nothing major but there was bit of that sort of thinking, and this will give it a massive push is my expectation.

It's not an anti-China thing as such but rather it's a pro-diversification thing.


----------



## Humid (13 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is probably why the cash injection will be spent quickly, it will be like Christmas, getting that amount of money in one hit.
> It will be nice to see struggling people enjoying themselves for once.
> The other thing is, the Government will get some figures back on the real cost, as opposed to the modelled cost, of giving welfare recipients money, as a lot will come back in gst and income tax from wages.



It seems to differ opinion in people depending on who implements it so it seems


----------



## IFocus (13 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Is anyone looking at or seen an article as to whether there will be money supply liquidity problems? I saw the Fed were printing money yeaterday? You know GFC type issues?




No haven't seen any thing of this nature but would expect for it to arrive in a likely secondary shock where banking loses confidence with who might fail (bankruptcy) or the international money transfers etc.

If that happens then liquidity problems with come with it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> No haven't seen any thing of this nature but would expect for it to arrive in a likely secondary shock where banking loses confidence with who might fail (bankruptcy) or the international money transfers etc.



I'd be surprised if there weren't a few effectively dead companies still trading at this point.

Airlines, shipping, hedge funds - there's quite a few things that could be basically dead just not announced.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 March 2020)

From Coles:

To continue to allow everyone the opportunity to purchase staple items, we will be implementing a couple of further changes throughout our stores:

1. From Saturday we will limit the purchase of pasta, flour, dry rice, paper towels, paper tissues and hand sanitisers to 2 items per customer. We will also be introducing some additional limits on certain items in each store. These can vary between stores, so please visit your local Coles for more information.

2. From today we will be temporarily suspending our change-of-mind refund policy to discourage over-purchasing. If you have already purchased additional items you no longer want, please look at donating them to community organisations or neighbours who have been struggling to purchase them during this time


----------



## sptrawler (13 March 2020)

Humid said:


> It seems to differ opinion in people depending on who implements it so it seems



Not really, but i know what you are saying, it sounds hypocritical.
But IMO there are a lot of differences between now and 2007, it probably isn't worth debating them though, but this is serious $hit.
2007 was a hit to the U.S and Europe's banking system, which because we were a pimple on the ar$e of the World, our Banks weren't involved in.
This is going to shut our whole Country down at some stage, this has a long way to play out and even then IMO it wont be over. 
We are going to be hit the same as every Country will be, there is no boom that is going to help us this time, the only saving grace IMO is we aren't densely populated even in our Cities.
Anyway, I know where you are coming from.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> This is going to shut our whole Country down at some stage, this has a long way to play out and even then IMO it wont be over.



Consider not this weekend but next.

Even assuming no further restrictions by government beyond those already announced, after this weekend we basically don't have any professional sports, concerts or other major events open to the public. If there's not to be gatherings of more than 500 people well then that rules all those out and even things like the larger nightclubs are on the wrong side of that. Not sure how many seats the bigger cinemas have?

We're in a situation that would have been unthinkable not too long ago and presumably it's only a matter of time until that "500" number becomes smaller and shuts down what's left.


----------



## sptrawler (13 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Consider not this weekend but next.
> 
> Even assuming no further restrictions by government beyond those already announced, after this weekend we basically don't have any professional sports, concerts or other major events open to the public.
> 
> We're in a situation that would have been unthinkable not too long ago.



My guess and it is only a guess, is they may call a quarantine period over the Easter school holidays, as most people will have things in place to look after the kids during that period, that is unless the spread hasn't increased which I expect it will have. 
I would think a lot will depend on how fast the infection rate grows, no point quarantining just to have it break out again after the quarantine period, too early will be just as bad as too late IMO.
Just my thoughts, no one knows how this will play out all speculation.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My guess and it is only a guess, is they may call a quarantine period over the Easter school holidays, as most people will have things in place to look after the kids during that period, that is unless the spread hasn't increased which I expect it will have.




An interesting possibility yes.

On specific cancellations I see that the Melbourne International Comedy Festival has been outright cancelled and I see that in Tasmania Dark Mofo has been completely cancelled.

The latter is somewhat telling given it's not until June but presumably organisers just couldn't take the risk, either disease or financial, of going ahead. Intentionally getting people outside at night in the middle of winter probably crossed their mind as not a good idea too given the circumstances.

For the economic effects well I expect that the comedy festival alone would have broader implications. There'd be not only performers but no doubt there'd be people from interstate or country areas who'd visit Melbourne to see shows etc.

Same with Dark Mofo - it fills up basically every hotel in Hobart at a time of year when they'd otherwise be largely empty. Huge drawcard so there's going to be jobs lost etc with that too.

About the only economic thing I think can be said with any certainty is that we are now in recession. Not technically, need two consecutive quarters for that, but in practice there's no way economic activity won't be contracting with all this going on. 

Edit: Just read that Sydney's Royal Easter Show is now cancelled too. Apparently normal attendance would be 800,000 over multiple days so that's another thing which would be a significant loss of income for people working there, suppliers, contractors etc.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Indeed. If I was (as I am now doing...) to write a different take on the possible fallout of the corona virus it would look like this
> 
> 1) There will be a big increase in deaths of generally older and sicker people.  While individually these are a tragedy in the longer run it will result in  substantial lessening  of  pension/social security costs and health costs. This will take the pressure off  many current pension funds (if they survive at all of course..)
> 
> ...



enduring Power of Attorney... can act on behalf of an infirm member, when still alive. Cash out super is the obvious one, avoid tax of 15% + 2% medicare on taxable amounts.


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## Smurf1976 (13 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> enduring Power of Attorney... can act on behalf of an infirm member, when still alive.



Some practical advice here - make very sure you get this placed on record with banks and anywhere else the person in question has money whilst they are still alive and mentally capable.

Having the enduring PA alone won't avoid hiccups when you walk into a bank branch to move a substantial amount of money. Even though it's registered with government, if it's not on the bank's system then you'll face a lot of hurdles and the bank won't release funds without going through a process.

So go into the bank or other financial institution and make sure it has been registered on their system whilst the person it relates to is still alive and mentally capable. The bank will at a minimum call them to confirm - and they'll only call on a number that is already recorded by the bank, they won't accept any other phone number you give them so make sure that's sorted too.

Comment is from personal experience.


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## MrChow (13 March 2020)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dire-predictions-for-swine-flus-future/

Basically the same article as now just swap the name of viruses.

Reality was their prediction of number of deaths turned out to be expotentially overestimated.


----------



## basilio (13 March 2020)

Now we are in for keeps. It looks as if we will have a shut down society for probably at least 6 weeks.
In my view if we got away with that we would be laughing.

The measures taken to control/slow/stop the spread of the corona virus will collapse our current economic system.  Our entertainment and sports industries are virtually shut down.  All the staff required the business owners, the shops the purchases just disappeared.

The beauty industry is on its knees. Hairdressing salons, beauticians, nail salons, massage places (legal and otherwise) will be closed

Almost all retailers bar food places and say hardware stores  will find it exceptionally hard to stay open or have more than skeleton staff.

If schools and universities  have to close suddenly  a huge part of the work force will have to stay home to mind the kids. And I suggest that keeping a bunch of restless  energetic children/teenagers from destroying the house and everyone sanity will be a monumental effort in itself. Unfortunately the most challenging children will generally be in the homes of the most challenged parents.  Lets see how that works out.

So this will have to be one of the biggest learning curves we have ever faced. I seriously wonder what support, tips, structures , incentives, are being planned to help this huge social necessity succeed in preventing all sorts of mayhem ?

Any ideas ?


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## sptrawler (13 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Any ideas ?



Yep, it makes CC look pi$$ant at the moment.


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## basilio (13 March 2020)

This is what a successful lockdown looks like



The last of a dozen makeshift hospitals in Wuhan, where the coronavirus outbreak began, officially closed on Tuesday in a sign that authorities' efforts to curb the virus are working.

On Tuesday, China reported 19 new coronavirus infections, down from 40 a day earlier


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## basilio (13 March 2020)

More vids on the virus. Factual, useful


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## basilio (13 March 2020)

*A look inside Wuhan quarantine ward for seriously ill*


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## basilio (13 March 2020)

* The coronavirus pandemic: visualising the global crisis *
The WHO has declared the global outbreak a pandemic. Take a look at the data behind the spread of the virus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-pandemic-visualising-the-global-crisis


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## basilio (13 March 2020)

How Taiwan has controlled the spread of the virus.  This can be done.
Well worth a read.
*How Taiwan and Singapore Have Contained the Coronavirus*
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/countries-contain-coronavirus-spread.html

https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...t-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report


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## Smurf1976 (14 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Our entertainment and sports industries are virtually shut down. All the staff required the business owners, the shops the purchases just disappeared.
> 
> The beauty industry is on its knees. Hairdressing salons, beauticians, nail salons, massage places (legal and otherwise) will be closed
> 
> ...




It's hard to say exactly what's going to happen with all this but it seems very clear to me that the economic damage will be massive and largely unrecoverable. Looking at the examples you've listed:

Entertainment and sports - there's zero ability to recover what's lost in practice. Yes we'll go back to having crowds at AFL games and we'll go back to running car races and so on. There won't be two Grand Prix's in Melbourne next year though each with a full crowd. They won't play an extra however many AFL games in order to make up for the lost crowd numbers. Etc. It'll go back to normal but what's lost is gone, it won't be recovered as such.

Salons of all kinds much the same. Nobody's going to get their nails done and extra however many times to make up for the ones they missed. They'll get them done once and that's it. Same with hairdressers and so on, people aren't going to get their hair cut twice in a day once it's over, the activity that's lost is mostly not going to be recovered.

As for the massage places, well if you mean the anonymous variety that use the word "massage" only because brothels aren't legal in that state, I'm told by someone who'd know that there's a major divide in terms of who's doing well at the moment and who's not. I won't say why as the subject may cause offence to some.


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## ducati916 (14 March 2020)

In the US

Boeing has drawn down on its $13B bank revolver.
Wynn has drawn down on its Bank revolver.

Blackstone has issued instructions to companies that it controls to draw down on Bank revolvers.

Federal Reserve is to expand its Balance Sheet (over time) to $5T on liquidity concerns. Remember the Repo crisis last year? An early warning sign re. liquidity.

jog on
duc


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## MrChow (14 March 2020)

S&P500 closing at -20.1%

That seems more in line with typical levels before a recession is accepted opinion.


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## CBerg (14 March 2020)

For the people advocating we shut down - what is your solution to underwriting the government in that time? You’re assuming a democratically elected government will stay in power and that they even have said power.

I think anyone seriously advocating for it is not thinking of the second order effects of what you’re suggesting. A government can’t underwrite its entire population for an indefinite period.

The only real honest solution is to live with the consequences of potentially catching the virus imo and get on with it. Societies lived in worse conditions in war time settings, and even peace time settings, and still found the resolve to go on, shutting down is mind boggling simple and not very well thought through.


----------



## sptrawler (14 March 2020)

For a shutdown to be effective, enough people have to be infected and develop immunity, so that after the shutdown there is enough herd immunity to stop the cross contamination then the virus dies out.
Well that is my understanding, so no doubt the Government will wait until the optimum time.


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## Humid (14 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> For the people advocating we shut down - what is your solution to underwriting the government in that time? You’re assuming a democratically elected government will stay in power and that they even have said power.
> 
> I think anyone seriously advocating for it is not thinking of the second order effects of what you’re suggesting. A government can’t underwrite its entire population for an indefinite period.
> 
> The only real honest solution is to live with the consequences of potentially catching the virus imo and get on with it. Societies lived in worse conditions in war time settings, and even peace time settings, and still found the resolve to go on, shutting down is mind boggling simple and not very well thought through.




What do you think they will hold a referendum?
I'm just trying to deal with what I think will happen
Give it a shot


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## CBerg (14 March 2020)

Humid said:


> What do you think they will hold a referendum?
> I'm just trying to deal with what I think will happen
> Give it a shot



Not saying referendum but after 2 weeks of shut down people will be getting antsy, let alone anything longer in duration.

Who’s delivering food and medications to the supermarkets/pharmacists which aren’t presumably closed? And who’s paying for people to stay home when businesses aren’t operating. Sick/personal/annual leave is premised on the fact the business is still operating.

Good luck keeping control if people aren’t fed, watered and paid.


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## Smurf1976 (14 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> The only real honest solution is to live with the consequences of potentially catching the virus imo and get on with it.



That is ultimately what is being done but it has to be done slowly due to the limited capacity of hospitals. Breach that and then the death rate soars to a point that few would consider even remotely acceptable.

There’s a tradeoff between efficiency and reliability always. If we had more hospitals and doctors for the same population then that would be less efficient but more reliable. That is, we could let the virus run through more rapidly and get back to normal sooner.

Reality though is that we’re stuck with what we’ve got so a slow burn it must be.

When it’s all over it’s time to reconsider - should we aim to deliberately drop the efficiency of our hospitals, have some spare capacity, and thus partly mitigate this risk?

Or do we aim for efficiency and just accept that the severity of a once in a lifetime shutdown is the price to be paid for that?

Same applies to quite a few areas of society’s infrastructure. A human virus isn’t the only thing which could bring about a widespread shutdown of society and the other risks are similarly mostly ignored but will bring outright panic if they happen.


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## CBerg (14 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is ultimately what is being done but it has to be done slowly due to the limited capacity of hospitals. Breach that and then the death rate soars to a point that few would consider even remotely acceptable.
> 
> There’s a tradeoff between efficiency and reliability always. If we had more hospitals and doctors for the same population then that would be less efficient but more reliable. That is, we could let the virus run through more rapidly and get back to normal sooner.
> 
> ...



My ex was a nurse in the emergency department, from what I understand from conversations with her and her colleagues over the years is that the hospitals are chronically short of capacity even during times you’d think would be a low time.

At the rate they’re clamping down on events it’s not much longer till those consequences will be felt in the general business community.

I really get the feeling the medico’s are saying shut everything down to contain this and we’ll sort it out later. I think the problem they’ll face is later there might not be much to salvage once it’s all said and done.

I agree about this isn’t just the virus thing, I always cringe when I read something you post about AEMO and critical infrastructure. It’s such bone-headed shortsightedness to not make critical repairs & maintenance(and upgrades for that matter) on the basics. Stealing from your future self to make the present self whole is not sustainable.


----------



## IFocus (14 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is ultimately what is being done but it has to be done slowly due to the limited capacity of hospitals. Breach that and then the death rate soars to a point that few would consider even remotely acceptable.
> 
> There’s a tradeoff between efficiency and reliability always. If we had more hospitals and doctors for the same population then that would be less efficient but more reliable. That is, we could let the virus run through more rapidly and get back to normal sooner.
> 
> ...




On the money Smurf containment or current actions and future ramping up actions closing schools etc is about controlling the infection rate and numbers not stopping it.

For northern hemisphere countries thats about getting to summer where its hoped infection rates will slow and containment measures can be loosened how ever the virus isn't going away still need a vaccine.

For Australia coming into winter its really bad news particularly combined with a normal flu season so measures will have to get aggressive to hold the peak down and getting through to our next summer.

If they can contain the rate skewer the numbers so infections are spread over a longer time frame then there is a greater chance everyone gets the treatment required then you lower the death rate dramatically.

Note in Italy it has been reported in some areas they had to give oxygen to 65 year olds and below as there wasn't the capacity to supply older people with the same measures.

This is the result of a slow and blaise approach somewhat similar to the US Federal Government response which is a real concern as the US really is the worlds economic engine room.


----------



## IFocus (14 March 2020)




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## MrChow (14 March 2020)

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ine-flu-pandemic-that-never-came-1974579.html

Yet predictions that the global death toll from swine flu could reach 7.5 million were well off the mark. At most, the virus killed 14,000 people, and some of those had pre-existing conditions or had been infected by other dangerous bugs as well. Against a background death toll from seasonal flu of up to 500,000, the new H1N1 strain was invisible.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-scientist-swine-flu-pandemic-was-completely-exaggerated/17292

“With SARS, with avian flu, always the predictions are wrong…Why don’t we learn from history?” Keil said. “It [swine flu] produced a lot of turmoil in the pubic and was completely exaggerated in contrast with all the really important matters we have to deal with in public health.”


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> I really get the feeling the medico’s are saying shut everything down to contain this and we’ll sort it out later. I think the problem they’ll face is later there might not be much to salvage once it’s all said and done.




I see a similarity here to other things in any crisis.

Get all the relevant people into a room and it's inevitable that between the technical experts (doctors, engineers, whoever is appropriate to the situation), finance people, public relations people, experts in other impacted fields (eg economics, natural environment, anything else that's going to suffer in some way) won't all agree.

Whatever the technical experts say is best will scare the absolute crap out of some of the others and for perfectly valid reasons. They'll see it as the apocalypse staring them in the face and from their perspective that's true.

Whatever some of the others suggest will likewise see jaws drop among the technical experts.

Agreed that simply shutting everything down as the medical people want to do will bring about a disaster in other ways. That's bit about what the technical experts want to do scaring the crap out of everyone else who sees other problems with the idea. Likewise though, just letting the virus run will seriously scare the doctors and for good reason.

As a society we're in a situation from which there's no easy way out. I'd liken it to an aircraft pilot who suddenly finds themselves with no working engines - the focus is now on trying to bring about the most orderly crash but a crash landing as such is now inevitable, all that remains to be seen are the details of how it pans out.

As a society I do hope we learn from this. I don't advocate having people standing around all day just in case, that would be silly, but stretching everything too thinly does come at a huge risk. It's widely done however in everything from finance through to how we run critical infrastructure through to hospitals. All stretched to just below breaking point with no room to move when anything goes wrong.

Hospitals = barely coping with normal demand and there's a backlog of "elective" surgery much of which is realistically rather important to the person needing it.

Infrastructure = I won't name them on a public forum for commonsense reasons but there are single critical points of failure in some systems (power, water, gas etc) in some parts of the country and millions of people will be affected if those things do fail badly as they could. 

Finance = excessive leverage, high valuations, automated trading. What could go wrong......


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## Smurf1976 (14 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> For Australia coming into winter its really bad news particularly combined with a normal flu season so measures will have to get aggressive to hold the peak down and getting through to our next summer.




A question I've struggled to find a proper answer to is about the effect of temperature and humidity.

Colds and flu are more common in Winter it seems so that does suggest cold weather makes it worse.

Where I'm going with that is to ponder whether we should be doing things like turning the heating up in shops and offices and so on? Would that sort of thing help in any way if we turn supermarkets, aged care homes and so on into somewhat tropical environments inside? Just wind the thermostat up to 30 degrees or whatever?

I say that from an "every bit helps" line of thinking wondering if it would help?


----------



## CBerg (14 March 2020)

@sptrawler maybe once this is all said and done, something worth spending a bit of money on would be mandatory preparation classes/events to help people prepare. Go over what you can do to prepare for epidemics, pandemics, natural disasters. Keeping itinerary of what you have in food, medical supplies, hygiene supplies etc.(in the theme of having infrastructure projects ready to go list)

As a nation that’s prone to natural disaster, we’re hopeless at being prepared on a national level. We can’t keep relying on governments to bail us out when things get tough.

We can’t predict what’s going to happen in the future but we can make sensible preparations.


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## SirRumpole (14 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A question I've struggled to find a proper answer to is about the effect of temperature and humidity.
> 
> Colds and flu are more common in Winter it seems so that does suggest cold weather makes it worse.
> 
> ...




I believe that in cold weather there is usually less humidity.

Humidity causes water droplets to attach to the viruses thus weighing them down meaning they fall to the ground and don't spread through the air as much.

So humidifying the air inside nursing homes, offices and schools would seem a good idea.


----------



## SirRumpole (14 March 2020)

NZ is now requiring all people entering the country self isolate for 14 days regardless of whether they have symptoms or not.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...land-travel-restrictions-coronavirus/12056754


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## qldfrog (14 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...ine-flu-pandemic-that-never-came-1974579.html
> 
> Yet predictions that the global death toll from swine flu could reach 7.5 million were well off the mark. At most, the virus killed 14,000 people, and some of those had pre-existing conditions or had been infected by other dangerous bugs as well. Against a background death toll from seasonal flu of up to 500,000, the new H1N1 strain was invisible.
> 
> ...



@MrChow  is living in a beautiful world
151,700-575,400 additional death
Cdc figures:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
Sorry i can not let these little lies go unchallenged otherwise as per global warming, people will believe them and we will end up closing coal stations, here hospitals for the wrong reasons.


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## Smurf1976 (14 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So humidifying the air inside nursing homes, offices and schools would seem a good idea.



If it helps then it should be done.

My thinking is that there's no conflict with other efforts, setting up humidifiers in aged care homes won't take resources away from hospitals etc, so if there's a benefit then do it.

If we can fix 5% of the problem here, 5% there, etc, then it all adds up.


----------



## basilio (14 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Not saying referendum but after 2 weeks of shut down people will be getting antsy, let alone anything longer in duration.
> 
> Who’s delivering food and medications to the supermarkets/pharmacists which aren’t presumably closed? And who’s paying for people to stay home when businesses aren’t operating. Sick/personal/annual leave is premised on the fact the business is still operating.
> 
> Good luck keeping control if people aren’t fed, watered and paid.




Probably worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singarpore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation. 
A mixture of  muscle, social support, capacity to keep people fed and supplied and a very sophisticated monitoring system.

Not to say it has been easy and simple. 
Has been done and can be done. China has also sent an advisory team to Italy to assist them in their lockdown
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/countries-contain-coronavirus-spread.html

https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...t-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report
https://www.womensweekly.com.sg/tag/coronavirus/


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## basilio (14 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A question I've struggled to find a proper answer to is about the effect of temperature and humidity.
> 
> Colds and flu are more common in Winter it seems so that does suggest cold weather makes it worse.
> 
> ...




Found a  medical study.  Interestingly enough it was in a commercial website..

https://www.condair.com.au/humidity...-humidity-on-coronavirus-survival-on-surfaces


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## Dona Ferentes (14 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Found a  medical study.  Interestingly enough it was in a commercial website..
> 
> https://www.condair.com.au/humidity...-humidity-on-coronavirus-survival-on-surfaces



2010. .. you can reckon there'll be updated Covid-19 simulations.

As a personal observation, sthn Chinese (HK) definitely respond to low humidity air in the dry winter months with humidifiers, water in top of heaters, anything.


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## basilio (14 March 2020)

Myth Busters update from World Health Organisation on Corona Virus. Simple and clear.

Excellent article on how to survive as a family in isolation.  Some  interesting upsides there as well.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

*The family lockdown guide: how to emotionally prepare for coronavirus quarantine *
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...motionally-prepare-for-coronavirus-quarantine


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## basilio (14 March 2020)

The AFL are trying to deal with the effects of the corona virus and risks of spreading the disease. The financial hit on the clubs is also a big concern. 

This would echo many other organisations that would be trying to work out how to survive an uncertain  period of  financial limbo.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/385050/no-vfl-latest-developments-on-the-coronavirus-crisis


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## MrChow (14 March 2020)

I'm not betting on a flu being less deadly in flu season, makes no sense to me.

There's a 100x multiplier on regular flu deaths and 1918, 1957, 1968 pandemics all peaked in flu season too.


----------



## SirRumpole (14 March 2020)

I wonder with all the sport being cancelled and people working from home, will there be a spike in the birth rate in 9 months time ?


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## basilio (14 March 2020)

I  don't think governments, businesses and people have yet to appreciate the economic challenges of  negotiating a 70% drop of economic activity for anything from 2-4 months.

On a personal level we know that at least 50% of the population is about 2 paychecks from being on the streets.  At a business level I can't imagine many businesses having the cash in the bank or willingness to fund an uncertain extended period of  minimal sales.

*This is, in my mind, a completely different and much more challenging situation than say a war declaration. * In wartime the government makes the market .  It directs people to the forces or into industry . Everyone has to work.  Probably harder and dirtier but the issue of economic bankruptcy is not upfront.

I have already seen articles where big companies have seriously wondered at their capacity to survive . I suggest this will take a lot more than sugar hits for pensioners and  some (decent) pocket money for keeping on apprentices.

Thoughts ?


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## Knobby22 (14 March 2020)

I've already noticed more people living on the streets. My guess is that they used to house surf but they are no longer welcome due to the virus.


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## Sharkman (14 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Probably worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singarpore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation.




worth checking out, but merely copying these countries may not work in Aust due to ideological differences - the so-called Asian values (reverence towards authority, sense of duty to the community) vs Western values (emphasis on individual freedoms and human rights).

as someone of Chinese ancestry, Australian born and raised, and living in Singapore for the past few years, i've had a lot of exposure to both in my lifetime. i'm not going to say that one is simply better overall than the other, they both have their respective merits. but in times of crisis such as these, to me Asian values are clearly more effective in getting things under control, where strong authority combined with respect for that authority is crucial.

here in Singapore they introduced strict quarantining and monitoring measures fairly early on before things got out of control (we've all been working from home for about a month now) with penalties including jail for disobeying. people complied with very little complaint. we had our own toilet paper crisis about 3-4 weeks ago, i saw it for myself, the toilet paper, canned food, rice, noodles shelves were completely bare. the government said cut that out, there's enough to go around for everyone. in less than a week supermarket shelves were restocked and back to normal, and they've been normal ever since.

then you contrast that with stories like this:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aus...-despite-confirmed-cases-20200314-p54a08.html

the effects are clear. Singapore was one of the early frontrunners in cases outside China due to the close connections the country has with China, but after it got to 100 or so, the number of cases has basically flatlined. compare that to Italy, France, even the US where it is quickly spiralling out of control.

these are cultural principles that have become embedded over centuries of different human civilisations, they're not going to change overnight. so by all means look at what those countries are doing, but Aust is going to have to come up with its own plan based on Australian values to have the best chance of success.


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## qldfrog (14 March 2020)

Sharkman said:


> worth checking out, but merely copying these countries may not work in Aust due to ideological differences - the so-called Asian values (reverence towards authority, sense of duty to the community) vs Western values (emphasis on individual freedoms and human rights).
> 
> as someone of Chinese ancestry, Australian born and raised, and living in Singapore for the past few years, i've had a lot of exposure to both in my lifetime. i'm not going to say that one is simply better overall than the other, they both have their respective merits. but in times of crisis such as these, to me Asian values are clearly more effective in getting things under control, where strong authority combined with respect for that authority is crucial.
> 
> ...



Well written and so true


----------



## CBerg (14 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I  don't think governments, businesses and people have yet to appreciate the economic challenges of  negotiating a 70% drop of economic activity for anything from 2-4 months.
> 
> On a personal level we know that at least 50% of the population is about 2 paychecks from being on the streets.  At a business level I can't imagine many businesses having the cash in the bank or willingness to fund an uncertain extended period of  minimal sales.
> 
> ...



I think what you describe is a death sentence for democratic capitalist society imo.
Not many people would survive that situation with any form of wealth left over. You're saying to save society medically you need to bankrupt them. I don't think many people would choose that if that's how you framed it.


----------



## SirRumpole (14 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I  don't think governments, businesses and people have yet to appreciate the economic challenges of  negotiating a 70% drop of economic activity for anything from 2-4 months.
> 
> On a personal level we know that at least 50% of the population is about 2 paychecks from being on the streets.  At a business level I can't imagine many businesses having the cash in the bank or willingness to fund an uncertain extended period of  minimal sales.
> 
> ...




Well, certain industries will have to go into hibernation for a while. People will have to use up their leave, rec, extended and sick for the duration. The government will have to borrow to fill in the gaps. Fortunately interest rates are at all time lows, but will this last ? The demand for money will be so great you would think interest rates must rise, unless governments start printing money . 

Uncharted waters ahead.


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## CBerg (14 March 2020)

As mentioned previously sick/personal/annual/long service leave is all predicated on the business still operating. I would predict a lot of places just shutting down or slimming down to just the owner or family running a small business instead of employees if faced with a 70% reduction in business.

I would think the government would have to print, who's going to lend to them on the basis they're stopping economic activity?


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 March 2020)

My knowledge of economic history is by no means complete but from what I do know, I think most of the population is blissfully ignorant as to just how long things actually took during previous events.

Some random points I'm aware of:

The DJIA crashed in 1929 as is fairly well known. Perhaps less well known is that it took until mid-1932 to reach the bottom.

The DJIA did not return to its 1929 high in nominal value until 1954. That's 25 years.

In inflation adjusted terms, the DJIA did not reach its' 1929 high again until 1959 and did not permanently exceed this level in inflation adjusted terms until late 1991, fully 62 years after the crash.

Many industries which shut down in 1930 as the great depression set in did resume operations but not until circa 1936. Among many others were various metal smelting plants in Australia.

Australian basic wage was cut 10% in 1931 and restored in 1937.

Australian state governments were still actively pursuing "make work schemes" in 1934 to address the economic problems. It may have continued even longer but was definitely still around that point.

The DJIA reached another high in January 1966 at just under 1000. It then went sideways and did not meaningfully exceed this level in nominal terms until late 1982.

In inflation adjusted terms the January 1966 level was not exceeded until September 1995. In the meantime the USA put a man on the moon and experienced 5 recessions.

Here's a 100 year chart of the DJIA with options for either nominal values or inflation adjusted: https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

As is fairly well known, Australia's last official recession ended in 1991. However:

Australian unemployment did not return to its 1989 low point until 2003 and was persistently seen as a problem throughout the 1990's.

Australian state governments were in general also still dealing with the fallout from the recession in the late 1990's and politics was still very much about "ending the recession". Whilst it may have technically ended years earlier, it sure didn't feel like it in much of the country where a "doom and gloom" environment persisted. 

Another aspect from the difficulties of the past was a shortage of capital. Read back through old annual reports and so on of both private enterprise and government authorities and a consistent theme emerges. They'd like to do x but couldn't get the money! Couldn't borrow it from a bank, because the banks didn't have enough money to lend, and couldn't raise funds easily by any other means either.

For quite some time various government authorities went as far as borrowing money directly from the general public in order to fund infrastructure. Like these:










Various listed companies likewise encouraged members of the public, the vast majority of whom had no experience with share ownership at the time, to buy their newly issued shares for the same underlying reason that capital was scarce.

Now my point here isn't about 1929 or investing in railways and I'm not saying we're necessarily about to have a repeat of the Great Depression. Rather, my point is simply that there are plenty of past precedents, within just one human lifetime, for economic problems which take decades to fully resolve. 

I think there's a lot of people, probably including some of our politicians, completely unaware of history in this regard. Completely unaware of just how difficult getting out of a hole can end up being and how long it takes. Given the extent of the current circumstances, that's somewhat concerning.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> As mentioned previously sick/personal/annual/long service leave is all predicated on the business still operating. I would predict a lot of places just shutting down or slimming down to just the owner or family running a small business instead of employees if faced with a 70% reduction in business.
> 
> I would think the government would have to print, who's going to lend to them on the basis they're *stopping* economic activity?




Suspending, but equally there are stimulus measures so there will be a return to business as normal at some stage.


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## qldfrog (15 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Suspending, but equally there are stimulus measures so there will be a return to business as normal at some stage.



You can only suspend if your rent,taxes,rates,pay slips are suspended
And all deadlined pushed
If you suspend payment but still have to pay the same total amount by eofy, you close.simple
And then if you do not pay the rent, who pays the landlord, your bank employees
However you see it means economic cataclysm.the variations is how bad or worth it can be based on gov decisions.
Maybe a time for labour to shut up and help as well instead of, yesterday ,complaining about scomo changing mind cf footy
Seriously, and coming from someone i though of being maybe a bit more reasonable.
We are in a marathon with a lot of pain ahead, even if we manage to save lives and that last point is not a given even if managed as best as possible


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## Dona Ferentes (15 March 2020)

The sooner we're on a *war footing *the better.


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## SirRumpole (15 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Maybe a time for labour to shut up and help as well instead of, yesterday ,complaining about scomo changing mind cf footy




It's pretty hard to work out what to do when circumstances are changing quickly, but the cancellation of the F1 , playing cricket in an empty stadium, cancellation of Dark Mofo etc seems to indicate that business and other groups are well ahead of the government in what should be done.

Slomo looks a bit silly if he says one thing today and does the opposite the next. He's not inspiring confidence, maybe he should self isolate for a while.


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## No Trust (15 March 2020)

Spot on...



SirRumpole said:


> It's pretty hard to work out what to do when circumstances are changing quickly, but the cancellation of the F1 , playing cricket in an empty stadium, cancellation of Dark Mofo etc seems to indicate that business and other groups are well ahead of the government in what should be done.
> 
> Slomo looks a bit silly if he says one thing today and does the opposite the next. He's not inspiring confidence, maybe he should self isolate for a while.


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## IFocus (15 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It's pretty hard to work out what to do when circumstances are changing quickly, but the cancellation of the F1 , playing cricket in an empty stadium, cancellation of Dark Mofo etc seems to indicate that business and other groups are well ahead of the government in what should be done.
> 
> Slomo looks a bit silly if he says one thing today and does the opposite the next. He's not inspiring confidence, maybe he should self isolate for a while.




The irony is the maths around Smokos going to the Sharks game is sort of OK its just the messaging that's the issue.

And to be fair he is likely trying to say don't panic.

But then he has had contact with an infected person......

However its the time for messaging on getting prepared and educated about what to do not going about normal life and it has to happen now aggressively before health services get over run.


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## qldfrog (15 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> The irony is the maths around Smokos going to the Sharks game is sort of OK its just the messaging that's the issue.
> 
> And to be fair he is likely trying to say don't panic.
> 
> ...



I think it is time to make the courageous decision to close education till at least end of easter break, then ensure that we reopen the country slowly as we control icu numbers
That os a fine line not to panic yet take measure required, and let science be in charge for a change


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## IFocus (15 March 2020)

Its not like the Flu





https://www.propublica.org/article/...e-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu


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## SirRumpole (15 March 2020)

Arrivals into Australia will be required to self isolate for 14 days.

How are they going to police this ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ia-live-updates-covid-19-latest-news/12056788


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## qldfrog (15 March 2020)

Good explanation from scomo cf plateau target,but  why are unis  still open, just because money is lost if this is done before 31rst?
31rst is a deadline cf payment snd courses taken here in qld at least....


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## basilio (15 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> As mentioned previously sick/personal/annual/long service leave is all predicated on the business still operating. I would predict a lot of places just shutting down or slimming down to just the owner or family running a small business instead of employees if faced with a 70% reduction in business.
> 
> I would think the government would have to print, who's going to lend to them on the basis they're stopping economic activity?




Absolutely right CBerg (IMO). I have come to the same conclusion that to get over this crisis we need to

1) Keep people fed and housed and basic bills paid until the virus is under control
2)   Keep businesses alive but in suspension for the same time.  Similar principles to above. Basic cost covered infrastructure kept operational until the virus is under control

I can only see a government creating credit achieving this.  I don't believe it will be inflationary because there won't be too much money chasing too few goods  just enough money to  pay for relatively essential necessities.

Purists might argue to "let the marketplace rule".  That will create an economic crash of epic proportions and hardship that will undermine our societies capacity to operate. It just makes no sense to bankrupt people and companies  for a short term crisis* that we have seen can be controlled with appropriate policies.*


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## Smurf1976 (15 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You can only suspend if your rent,taxes,rates,pay slips are suspended
> And all deadlined pushed




Had an interesting discussion about this with a lawyer this morning (in the capacity of a friend I’ve known for many years not in a formal professional context).

Paraphrasing some of their comments:

Consider everything involved in a property transaction. Everyone from the vendor, RE agent, solicitor, government, banks, removalists, insurance, utilities and so on. 

If any one of those fails then it becomes unworkable. If the vendor’s new home is now occupied by its current owner who is in isolation, if the lawyer is in isolation or the removalists or whoever well then the whole thing doesn’t work.

Their view was that the only option was to declare all contracts, of any sort, suspended by default with an option for all parties to agree to proceed if they’re able but the default answer is no and no penalty can be applied by any party. That’s all contracts from a property settlement to the completion date of a building project through to the expiry date on your car registration. Extend literally everything that’s current.

That is of course an outright disaster but it would seem a lesser disaster than having people moving house unable to get a removalist and especially so in the context of those who become infected and isolate at home. 

Even with seemingly simple things like car registration, in states where a road worthy inspection is required that’s going to be a huge problem and last thing we need is to add to society’s woes by forcing perfectly good cars off the roads on a legal technicality. Just extend the rego date without question.

Likewise let’s not have any other things made difficult by compliance issues. Things like licenses needing photos, just extend the expiry date on the current one. Things like councils issuing orders to rectify building problems etc, unless it really is going to fall down then now’s not the time to be worrying about some technicality that something doesn’t comply with the rules.

And so on. Basically they were saying don’t enforce anything unless there’s an extremely pressing need to do so since compliance is going to become difficult if not impossible in many situations.


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## basilio (15 March 2020)

Effects of the Corona Virus across industries.

*Coronavirus: British Airways boss tells staff jobs will go*
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51875271

*Coronavirus: Spain and France announce sweeping restrictions*
*Two of the EU's biggest states, Spain and France, have followed Italy in announcing emergency restrictions to combat the spread of the coronavirus.*
*In Spain, people are banned from leaving home except for buying essential supplies and medicines, or for work.*
*With 191 deaths, Spain is Europe's worst-hit country after Italy.*


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## Smurf1976 (15 March 2020)

There’s quite a lot of concern about major maintenance work in heavy industry going forward. Mines, smelters, power stations, refineries etc.

In the power industry there’s two basic problems apart from the obvious with the virus itself:

1. The outage window is seasonal. In most states can’t do it in Summer due to peak demand and there’s only limited opportunity in Winter when demand is also reasonably high. 

Autumn and Spring are thus the main focus such that missing Autumn is more serious than it may seem.

End result if not done = breakdowns and blackouts become far more likely.

2. In some cases regulatory compliance issues will force production to stop if maintenance isn’t done. 

That creates an extremely difficult situation to say the least unless government’s willing to give formal exemptions from the law.

Other industries would be having similar issues no doubt.


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## qldfrog (15 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Had an interesting discussion about this with a lawyer this morning (in the capacity of a friend I’ve known for many years not in a formal professional context).
> 
> Paraphrasing some of their comments:
> 
> ...



exactly all contracts from rates to rego to rent etc to be pushed by xx months, and gov to give survival money to all from landlords to centerlink recipients to CEO;
If that money is a fixed standard centerlink amount, this is fair, anything else is gross manipulation of society but I imagine labour if Alan Jones got his 200$ a week or whatever.
Make that amount taxable of course


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## Dona Ferentes (15 March 2020)

Possible pathway out of this; though a timeline is not given (is there one?)


> ● Keep up to date on statistics of the spread (and, when it comes, the containment) of the coronavirus pandemic.
> ● Expect the accommodative monetary settings and fiscal stimulation to be kept in place for an extended period.





> ● Watch for further sell-offs in sharemarkets before confidence returns and stays stronger.
> ● Prepare a list of quality shares (or share funds) suited for the individual investor’s longer-term needs.





> ● Bear in mind that the best times to buy good assets is when confidence is low and a rout is on.
> ● When it appears time to re-enter the sharemarket, play it safe for a while by “averaging in” to build a holding of the quality shares (or share funds).



_Don Stammer _ (_eminence grise, _probably seen a few of these)


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## tech/a (15 March 2020)

Vaccine even the imminent possibility of human trials
Will stop the plunge

Once the vaccine is out then you’ll see mass buying and fast!


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## IFocus (15 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> Vaccine even the imminent possibility of human trials
> Will stop the plunge
> 
> Once the vaccine is out then you’ll see mass buying and fast!




Still 12 months away even going straight to human testing production will take awhile etc.


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## sptrawler (15 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Possible pathway out of this; though a timeline is not given (is there one?)
> 
> _Don Stammer _ (_eminence grise, _probably seen a few of these)



Great post Dona, this isnt the end of mankind, next time will be worse IMO.


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## Joules MM1 (15 March 2020)

all the info you'll need ?


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## tech/a (15 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Still 12 months away even going straight to human testing production will take awhile etc.




wouldn’t be so sure about that 
The Canadian Team say full production by mid year 
The Queensland team say by October .
And there will be others.

human trials starting within weeks.


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## mcgrath111 (15 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> wouldn’t be so sure about that
> The Canadian Team say full production by mid year
> The Queensland team say by October .
> And there will be others.
> ...



Why are they talking about production if they haven't started trials?


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## tech/a (15 March 2020)

mcgrath111 said:


> Why are they talking about production if they haven't started trials?




projected release


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## basilio (15 March 2020)

The Government has announced that everyone who comes to Australia has to self isolate for 14 days.

Right. * There goes our  shorter term tourist market full stop. * How will people coming for business reasons make this work ?  Not saying its wrong but how will this be implemented ?

* Coronavirus: people not complying with new Australian self-isolation rules could face fines *

Overseas arrivals required to isolate for 14 days, cruise ships from foreign ports banned for 30 days, but schools will remain open
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/all-overseas-arrivals-in-australia-must-self-isolate-for-14-days-amid-new-coronavirus-
rules

Oops. Just saw  Rumpy had flagged this earlier today.

By the way should religious organisations still have regular gatherings at the moment ? If so under what conditions ?


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## Smurf1976 (15 March 2020)

basilio said:


> How will people coming for business reasons make this work ?



I think realistically the answer is that people won't be coming for business reasons.

Any new major investment etc has likely been deferred anyway and anything else will simply be put on hold.

The tourism industry, including conferences, is for practical purposes all but closed.


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## MrChow (15 March 2020)

*'Herd immunity': Why Britain is actually letting the coronavirus spread*

https://www.theage.com.au/world/eur...g-the-coronavirus-spread-20200315-p54a5h.html

In crude terms, Boris Johnson's government is mounting the argument that the outbreak is now so far gone that it is actually desirable for people to get infected. And a lot of people – potentially up to 70 per cent of the country's population, or roughly 47 million.

A risky strategy? Very. At complete odds with the rest of the globe and the World Health Organisation? Definitely. Politically unpopular? Absolutely. But sensible? Quite possibly.


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## IFocus (15 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> wouldn’t be so sure about that
> The Canadian Team say full production by mid year
> The Queensland team say by October .
> And there will be others.
> ...




Hope they are right last report the big pharmas were not on board (may have changed) to produce the billions of vaccines.

Other concerns are the standards used for testing (Chinese likely use prisoners) in the rush still lets hope for the best.


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## Sdajii (16 March 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> all the info you'll need ?





Wow.

This video starts by saying that the virus isn't a big deal, and the real problem is scaremongering. It then says the biggest part of the media problem comes down to Trump, because he was so stupid that he tried to play it down to keep people calm. It then says Trump was incredibly stupid to play it down because it's extremely bad, terrifying and will, quote "cause a lot of ******* dead people" emphasising the 7 figure estimate of human facilities in literally the most blatant piece of scaremongering I've seen on a social media video, or mainstream for that matter!

No kidding, that's exactly what this video was!


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## Joules MM1 (16 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Wow.
> 
> This video starts by saying that the virus isn't a big deal, and the real problem is scaremongering. It then says the biggest part of the media problem comes down to Trump, because he was so stupid that he tried to play it down to keep people calm. It then says Trump was incredibly stupid to play it down because it's extremely bad, terrifying and will, quote "cause a lot of ******* dead people" emphasising the 7 figure estimate of human facilities in literally the most blatant piece of scaremongering I've seen on a social media video, or mainstream for that matter!
> 
> No kidding, that's exactly what this video was!




no, she said "some say it's no big deal" while pointing to a video shot of an idiot who says idiot things like it's no big deal

it's a p!ss take ...wouldnt take p!sstakes too seriously
a clue was in the remarks "lol ok this is hilarious"

no data source provided so pretty hard to fact check or verify 

your reaction is a good clue to your own current disposition


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## Smurf1976 (16 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> No kidding, that's exactly what this video was!



It is but then it's intended to be comedy not factual information.


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## Smurf1976 (16 March 2020)

Sums up my thoughts pretty well:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...d/news-story/4d36a35aaab8bb37ec72b8d8def003bb

The world has changed most certainly.


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## PZ99 (16 March 2020)

Better deposit all your coins and notes in the bank before their circulation gets banned


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## MrChow (16 March 2020)

Fed cuts to 0.

Stimulus has added about +15% to markets since Friday.


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

Excellent overview of what has happened with the COVID 19 virus to date. 
In particular note the fact that China has controlled this virus with its stringent isolation practices.

Also check out the analysis of financial support given in GC and the realisation we will need to do much, much more to protect citizens and industry from going under.

*Health and wealth — where we've gone wrong on coronavirus*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...where-weve-gone-wrong-on-coronavirus/12058254


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

I was having a look at the effects of the virus on countries around the world.  I suggest the economic ramifications will be grim.  Not  a good time to be in the stock market IMV. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-15-march-at-a-glance
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...n-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

This is how Donald Trump treats the Coronvia virus threat to the whole world.
*Absolute xxxxing criminal behaviour*.

* Trump 'offers large sums' for exclusive access to coronavirus vaccine *
German government tries to fight off aggressive takeover bid by US, say reports

The Trump administration has offered a German medical company “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German media have reported.

The German government is trying to fight off what it sees as an aggressive takeover bid by the US, the broadsheet Die Welt reports, citing German government circles.

The US president had offered the Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac “large sums of money” to gain exclusive access to their work, wrote Die Welt.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...s-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

Joules MM1 said:


> all the info you'll need ?





These "Honest Government Ads" are the most searing analysis of  political xhitxuckery I have ever seen.

They cut to the chase. They cut to the bone. They eviscerate the malignant stupidity that passes for  White House at the moment.
And in this case they offer practical public health information as well.


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

It looks as if the stock market will jump on opening...

I think this will be a very nasty bear trap.


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## tech/a (16 March 2020)

*Trump ‘offers large sums’ for exclusive access to vaccine*
The Trump administration has offered German medical company CureVac “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German broadsheet Die Welt reports, citing German government circles. According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US,* “but for the US only”.*

And there it is right here.
This will not ONLY be Trumps way of dealing with things but many if not most
other countries.

*BUT
This tells you very clearly how the US would come to your rescue if
it was a case of self preservation.
Good on ya mate!*


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## lindsayf (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> It looks as if the stock market will jump on opening...
> 
> I think this will be a very nasty bear trap.



Yes I think so too..except 'bull' trap  (no doubt you meant to say).


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## Sdajii (16 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It is but then it's intended to be comedy not factual information.




It's still intended to be factual and informative while entertaining, people obviously typically see it that way, the series has been going for years and has always been intended as genuine information presented in a funny way, and it was clearly scaremongering in the extreme, very hypocritically so.


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## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> *Trump ‘offers large sums’ for exclusive access to vaccine*
> The Trump administration has offered German medical company CureVac “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German broadsheet Die Welt reports, citing German government circles. According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US,* “but for the US only”.*
> 
> And there it is right here.
> ...



Sounds like someone in the media, up to their normal crap.
From the article:
_Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article_.
May be the case of joining the dots, to make a better story?
I'm sure every Country will be paying for any vaccine, and any company that is in the process of making a vaccine will be approached by the medical sections of every Government, requesting access to any vaccine.


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## tech/a (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sounds like someone in the media, up to their normal crap.
> From the article:
> _Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article_.
> May be the case of joining the dots, to make a better story?
> I'm sure every Country will be paying for any vaccine, and any company that is in the process of making a vaccine will be approached by the medical sections of every Government, requesting access to any vaccine.




Yes well there is certainly that.
Annoyed that I could have fallen for that.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's still intended to be factual and informative while entertaining, people obviously typically see it that way, the series has been going for years and has always been intended as genuine information presented in a funny way, and it was clearly scaremongering in the extreme, very hypocritically so.




Sorry Sdajii I think you have missed the point of these  "Honest Government ads".
They have always been a piece of very savage satire on the political behaviour of largely Liberal Governments.

In my memory they have never (up until this piece ) also included a genuine public health message. The writers decided that if they were going to roast the various governments for their xhitxuckery on addressing the corona virus they should do something practical in terms of educating the public.

If you disagree with my observation your welcome to post a few examples of what you have seen as practical community service information embedded in the ads.


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## CBerg (16 March 2020)

Sorry if this has been answered here or elsewhere.
But with the self isolation for travelers - how does this affect imports/exports more importantly air & sea freight?

Are crews that probably do not do more than sit on the boat/aircraft need to be quarantined? Going to make it extremely difficult if it is applied to them.


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sounds like someone in the media, up to their normal crap.
> From the article:
> _Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article_.
> May be the case of joining the dots, to make a better story?
> I'm sure every Country will be paying for any vaccine, and any company that is in the process of making a vaccine will be approached by the medical sections of every Government, requesting access to any vaccine.





Rumpy from reading the article carefully I believe the story is accurate.

Clearly an official Government spokesman is not going to publicly highlight such a US centered approach by Donald Trump.  That is just not good poolitics.

The relevant quotes from the story are
_Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article.

“The federal government is very interested in vaccines and antiviral agents against the novel coronavirus being developed in Germany and Europe,” the spokesperson quoted in the original article had said. “In this regard the government is in an intensive exchange with the company CureVac.”
*The German health ministry spokesperson declined the opportunity to correct any inaccuracies in Die Welt’s account.
*_
*This was the opportunity to correct any error the newspaper had made in its reporting of Donald Trumps efforts to buy the company solely for US distribution.  They declined to make any such correction.*


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## jbocker (16 March 2020)

OK Crown are allowed to operate under distancing rules. 
So why not have the same for sporting grandstands Every 2nd or 3rd seat active and every second row vacant. Hot Dogs and drinks only available by roaming sellers up and down vacant aisles. Shops closed.
Staggered entry.


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## Sdajii (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Sorry Sdajii I think you have missed the point of these  "Honest Government ads".
> They have always been a piece of very savage satire on the political behaviour of largely Liberal Governments.
> 
> In my memory they have never (up until this piece ) also included a genuine public health message. The writers decided that if they were going to roast the various governments for their xhitxuckery on addressing the corona virus they should do something practical in terms of educating the public.
> ...




However you spin it, the video did say the virus is not a big deal, then blamed the media for scaremongering, then blamed Trump for playing it down, then blatantly scaremongered.

However you spin it, all their videos display information in a way which is supposed to be taken as factual. That estimate of human fatalities was comically phrased as "a lot of fu$$ing dead people" but the figure was clearly an actual estimate to be taken seriously as a figure, and describing that number as "a lot of f$$king dead people" is as clear a case of scaremongering as you can get. While it may make some people laugh, it is clearly designed to make the viewer distrust Trump, think he is bad for playing the virus itself down, and then tells the viewer that we're going to see it kill huge numbers of people. Even if you laugh while watching it, being told to expect "a lot of fu##ing dead people" is going to scare people and contribute to fear and panic.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

This is a thorough, excellent analysis of the process of developing, testing and producing a safe effective vaccine for the Covid 19 virus.  It isn't simple. It can and has  gone badly wrong in the past. If it isn't done carefully a bad vaccine could cause immeasurably more harm.

*When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready? *
Human trials will begin in April – but even if they go well, there are many barriers before global immunisation is feasible

Even at their most effective – and draconian – containment strategies have only slowed the spread of the respiratory disease Covid-19. With the World Health Organization finally declaring a pandemic, all eyes have turned to the prospect of a vaccine, because only a vaccine can prevent people from getting sick.

About 35 companies and academic institutions are racing to create such a vaccine, at least four of which already have candidates they have been testing in animals. The first of these – produced by Boston-based biotech firm Moderna – will enter human trials in April.

This unprecedented speed is thanks in large part to early Chinese efforts to sequence the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. China shared that sequence in early January, allowing research groups around the world to grow the live virus and study how it invades human cells and makes people sick.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ine-be-ready-human-trials-global-immunisation


Sdajii said:


> However you spin it, the video did say the virus is not a big deal, then blamed the media for scaremongering, then blamed Trump for playing it down, then blatantly scaremongered.
> 
> However you spin it, all their videos display information in a way which is supposed to be taken as factual. That estimate of human fatalities was comically phrased as "a lot of fu$$ing dead people" but the figure was clearly an actual estimate to be taken seriously as a figure, and describing that number as "a lot of f$$king dead people" is as clear a case of scaremongering as you can get. While it may make some people laugh, it is clearly designed to make the viewer distrust Trump, think he is bad for playing the virus itself down, and then tells the viewer that we're going to see it kill huge numbers of people. Even if you laugh while watching it, being told to expect "a lot of fu##ing dead people" is going to scare people and contribute to fear and panic.




Would you prefer to see the quotes of how many xucking dead people there could be come from a recognised epidemiologist ?  Plenty of those who will verify the accuracy of their story.
And you are quite correct in noting that much of the venom in the ad was directed at Donald Trump.
Given his behaviour do you think that was justified ?


----------



## jbocker (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> This is a thorough, excellent analysis of the process of developing, testing and producing a safe effective vaccine for the Covid 19 virus. It isn't simple. It can and has gone badly wrong in the past. If it isn't done carefully a bad vaccine could cause immeasurably more harm.



*Thalidomide* in pregnant women in 1950s and early 60s a drug event which proves that point, and any wonder why new drugs take so long to get on board.


----------



## MrChow (16 March 2020)

Both the 2009 Swine Flu and 1918 Spanish Flu peaked in a second wave in November.


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

3 peope a day die in on our roads.
We dont ban cars
How many have died from the virus today or yesterday or the day before.

The virus might be bad. But human reaction is going to cause far more pain.

Watch suicide rates sky rocket in coming months due to the financial fallout, along wih divorce rates.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

This development is totally foreseeable.  Will be important to see how it is resolved.

_In reactions to the coronavirus crisis this morning, Air New Zealand has cut 85% of its international flights and will cut jobs, Crown Resorts has closed every second poker machine at its casinos and the hearing implant company Cochlear has withdrawn its previous profit forecasts.
*
But the big development is that financial regulators are going to meet with the big banks this week. The immediate problem is that small to medium businesses have no money to repay their loans. Banks have said they will allow those customers to delay repayments, which in turn will put pressure on their own businesses.

If small businesses start sacking people in droves, defaults on home mortgages become more likely. This is a potentially big problem for the banks, which have lent heavily against houses. 
*_
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...085e564ad84b53#block-5e6edafe8f085e564ad84b53


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> _*If small businesses start sacking people in droves, defaults on home mortgages become more likely. This is a potentially big problem for the banks, which have lent heavily against houses. *_




This is not an "If" statement but rather a "When" as it will happen. 

I have spent most of this morning talking to business owners that I deal with, they are all preparing their contingency plans for the next 3 months, all of them involve removing overheads, and that is staff.

Most of the business owners I have been talking to, went through the GFC, they are not going to wait and see this time, they are going to act fast and furiously. They would rather their decisions be wrong, than go broke.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> This is not an "If" statement but rather a "When" as it will happen.
> 
> I have spent most of this morning talking to business owners that I deal with, they are all preparing their contingency plans for the next 3 months, all of them involve removing overheads, and that is staff.
> 
> Most of the business owners I have been talking to, went through the GFC, they are not going to wait and see this time, they are going to act fast and furiously. They would rather their decisions be wrong, than go broke.



Which makes even more critical for the government to 
1) Keep people solvent and in their homes
2) Ensure business stays alive even if it is in limbo and not making a lot of money.


----------



## tech/a (16 March 2020)

This has to be measured over reaction inuendo,what ifs 
crap reporting for sensationalism has to stop.

If media was used to HELP the situation rather than INFLAME it
then much of this panic can be avoided.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

A more detailed news report on the attempt by Donald Trump to buy a German company to ensure its Corona vaccine was for US use only.
The money shot was at the end of the story.

*Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine*
US President Trump is attempting to entice a German lab to develop a vaccine exclusively for the US, a German newspaper reported. The company, however, later rejected claims of a sale of the firm or its technology.

_...* Meeting with Trump *

Trump on Saturdaytested negative for the coronavirus after potentially being exposed to several cases.

The COVID-19 outbreak, which started in China, has spread across the globe with more than 156,000 confirmed cases and 5,800 deaths. More than 70,000 people have recovered from the virus, which presents for most people as a mild to moderate illness, but can become a serious condition in others.

*On March 2, CureVac's then-CEO Daniel Menichella attended a meeting at the White House to discuss coronavirus vaccine development with Trump and members of his coronavirus taskforce.

On March 11, the company announced Menichella would be replaced by company founder Ingmar Hoerr, without giving a reason why.
*_
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-us-wrestle-over-coronavirus-vaccine/a-52777990


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Which makes even more critical for the government to
> 1) Keep people solvent and in their homes
> 2) Ensure business stays alive even if it is in limbo and not making a lot of money.




It is not the govnuts job, we live in a capitalistic society. If they really wanted people to remain solvent and in their homes, we would not have the ridiculously high housing prices and be one of the most indepbted nations per capita in the world(private debt).
The only way to clean the swamp is with a good flood and that we have, the BLACK SWANS must be smiling.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Both the 2009 Swine Flu and 1918 Spanish Flu peaked in a second wave in November.



Thanks @MrChow 

It is still difficult to extrapolate this to the Coronavirus as they are very different organisms in their DNA, spread, action at cellular level and survival characteristics ( their survival btw ).

gg


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> It is not the govnuts job, we live in a capitalistic society. If they really wanted people to remain solvent and in their homes, we would not have the ridiculously high housing prices and be one of the most indepbted nations per capita in the world(private debt).
> The only way to clean the swamp is with a good flood and that we have, the BLACK SWANS must be smiling.




I think you are mixing the situations here .
We have a health emergency which can only be stopped by enforcing a social isolation process that will have to drastically reduce normal economic activity.  If the government doesn't take steps to protect the basics of peoples and businesses lives  during this shutdown there will be an economic calamity as well.

The fact is  in 2020 we have a national  government *precisely *to intervene in  society and the market place when events happen that are beyond the control of  individuals or businesses. Whether that is a response to massive bushfires,  unconscionable behaviour by institutions (Banks/Chuches) , or an international pandemic we need governments to protect the infrastructure of our society.

In this case we have to protect hundreds of thousands of peoples lives and our health system and the financial and social fabric of the country


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

"We have a health emergency" more people died yesterday on our roads, than have from this virus since the start of the year.
It is not an emergency, it is scare mongering that will cost everyone in our society than it should.

Five deaths so far in 2.5months, yet 8 people committed suicide on Sunday.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> "We have a health emergency" more people died yesterday on our roads, than have from this virus since the start of the year.
> It is not an emergency, it is scare mongering that will cost everyone in our society than it should.
> 
> Five deaths so far in 2.5months, yet 8 people committed suicide on Sunday.




So what is happening in Italy SP ? Or Iran or Japan ? What happened in China when they ignored the first signs of the virus and then finally closed down the whole country for 2 months ?

This is not a beat up. We can see exactly what will happen to us if we don't act quickly and decisively.  We are not reacting to 5 deaths now. We are seeing what happened to the countries that didn't respond early and properly and  *want to ensure we don't look like them.*


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

People die, viruses are a part of life, this is just stupid, the strong survive, the weak perish, that is the law of the land/nature.

How long do you want a country to go into lock down for?

How many people can exists on this single planet without a future virus taking hold?

Is this not nature fighting back to what we have done to her/he?


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> This is how Donald Trump treats the Coronvia virus threat to the whole world.
> *Absolute xxxxing criminal behaviour*.




I want to repeat my disgust at the criminal sociopathic behaviour of the Thief-in-Chief

Not surprisingly German Ministers are white hot about Trumps effort to buy out the German firm on the condition it produced a vaccine only for the US. If I had to see any single event that would create an international push to denounce Donald Trump this would be it.
If this is correct, and all indications to date point that way, he and the US will have forfeited all  international respect for his behaviour.
............................................................................................
_German ministers have reacted angrily following reports *US president Donald Trump offered a German medical company “large sums of money” for exclusive rights to a Covid-19 vaccine*.

“Germany is not for sale,” economy minister Peter Altmaier told broadcaster ARD, reacting to a front page report in Welt am Sonntag newspaper headlined “Trump vs Berlin”.

The newspaper reported Trump offered $1bn to Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac to secure the vaccine “only for the United States”.

The German government was reportedly offering its own financial incentives for the vaccine to stay in the country.

*The report prompted fury in Berlin. “International co-operation is important now, not national self-interest,” said Erwin Rueddel, a conservative lawmaker on the German parliament’s health committee.*

*The German health minister, Jens Spahn, said a takeover of CureVac by the Trump administration was “off the table”. CureVac would only develop vaccine “for the whole world”, Spahn said, “not for individual countries”.*

Last week, the firm *mysteriously announced that CureVac CEO Daniel Menichella had been replaced by Ingmar Hoerr,* just weeks after Menichella met Trump, his vice-president Mike Pence and representatives of pharma companies in Washington.

CureVac quoted Menichella on its website as saying shortly after the visit: “We are very confident that we will be able to develop a potent vaccine candidate within a few months.”

On Sunday, CureVac investors said they would not sell the vaccine to a single state.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...stralia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news
_


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Rumpy from reading the article carefully I believe the story is accurate.
> 
> Clearly an official Government spokesman is not going to publicly highlight such a US centered approach by Donald Trump.  That is just not good poolitics.
> 
> ...



Why would they buy a company solely for U.S distribution, when the U.S economy is built on selling Stuff to as many people as would buy it, sounds bloody ridiculous.
Are you trying to say, when they have enough for themselves, they wouldn't make any more?
People need to get a grip, is there any wonder, there was a run on toilet paper.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Why would they buy a company solely for U.S distribution, when the U.S economy is built on selling Stuff to as many people as would buy it, sounds bloody ridiculous.
> Are you trying to say, when they have enough for themselves, they wouldn't make any more?
> People need to get a grip, is there any wonder, there was a run on toilet paper.




Please think for a minute. The meeting was with Trump, Pence and reps from Big Pharma. Big Pharma lives to make and sell drugs as expensively as they can. Full stop . End of story

Of course they would make more.  You would just have to pay through the nose for it. And frankly, thinking about Donald Trump, I would be confident in saying he would deny such a vaccine to any countries he saw fit. 

The alternative process is working like hell to find and make a viable vaccine and then find a way to produce it in enough quantities to vaccinate billions of people.

This story explores the big picture on that process.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ine-be-ready-human-trials-global-immunisation


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Please think for a minute. The meeting was with Trump, Pence and reps from Big Pharma. Big Pharma lives to make and sell drugs as expensively as they can. Full stop . End of story
> 
> Of course they would make more.  You would just have to pay through the nose for it.
> The alternative process is working like hell to find and make a viable vaccine and then find a way to produce it in enough quantities to vaccinate billions of people.
> ...



If the U.S has a capacity to make more vaccine than the German company,once it is proven as usable, the U.S company should be sold the rights to produce it.
If they wont sell the rights then the U.S company should buy the German company and start mass production.
This is serious $hit, it needs to get produced as fast as can be done.
Personal dislikes need to be put on the back burner, if the German Government has a problem sell it to the U.K and U.S, where they both can make it in bulk and fast.
People need to start focusing on the problem, rather than just finding another way, to bucket on Trump.
What if Germany, will take three times as long, to make the same amount of vaccine?


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> "We have a health emergency" more people died yesterday on our roads, than have from this virus since the start of the year.
> It is not an emergency, it is scare mongering that will cost everyone in our society than it should.



The issue is the rate of increase not how many are dead thus far.

Hospitals simply don't have the capacity to cope with the infection rate being more than a few % of the population at a time. Exceed that limit and then the death rate spikes from all sorts of other things as well - heart attack, stroke, car accident all become far more likely to kill you when you can't be admitted to hospital after having one because it's already full.

About now is the time "efficiency experts" disappear from the health system real quick, never to be seen again, and everyone starts realising that higher taxes to fund spare capacity in hospitals would have been a better idea after all.

Do all the elective surgery as a matter of course with the hospitals running at 80% of capacity. So you've got empty wards, you've got spare ambulances, you've got doctors working only standard hours and so on. Then when something like this happens we cancel all the elective stuff, run the hospitals up to 100% capacity, have the staff working overtime and so on.

Business efficiency gurus will say we can't afford that. In doing so they are saying that the situation we have now is cheaper and not too much of a problem really. Suffice to say I disagree.

Efficiency is brilliant up to a point, it's the very thing that makes our current way of life possible so it's by no means bad, but go beyond that optimum point and it ends with a meltdown. Everything from engines to warehouses do that, there's a point beyond which further efficiency comes at the price of reliability and if you accept that, if you want to have that efficiency, then you have to accept the occasional spectacular blowup as part of the cost.

The warning signs have been there for years but were ignored. Every state has a waiting list for surgery and that's a huge alarm bell because it means hospitals aren't being run with spare capacity. That being so, it was inevitable that we'd face something like this sooner or later. 

It's the same in most countries of course but if you look at those who've contained it, well the key thing is they had the resources to throw at it. That's the bit most countries have failed at and that increases the economic cost hugely since it greatly ups the required disruption to everything else.


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

Sprawler, lets see if they have a vaccine first, let it trial it first, before everyone gets excited, developing vaccines is a little more complicated than one would think and getting it to market takes a longer longer than a few months.

And if they have one, what stops someone reverse engineering it and mass producing it themselves in these times


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If the U.S has a capacity to make more vaccine than the German company,once it is proven as usable, the U.S company should be sold the rights to produce it.
> If they wont sell the rights then the U.S company should buy the German company and start mass production.
> This is serious $hit, it needs to get produced as fast as can be done.
> Personal dislikes need to be put on the back burner, if the German Government has a problem sell it to the U.K and U.S, where they both can make it in bulk and fast.




Who says the US has more capacity to make the vaccine ?

Never, ever mentioned.

The story was simply that Trump offered a $1B for the company and part of the deal was exclusivity for the US

It seems that the CEO saw the dollar signs and was interested in taking the money until the rest of the Board arched up over the deal. He was then replaced.

I repeat. I think this story if  verified  should break Donald Trumps Presidency


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I repeat. I think this story if  verified  should break Donald Trumps Presidency



No one would have guessed that.

If it's not verified you still want his Presidency broken, he can't win either way.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If the U.S has a capacity to make more vaccine than the German company,once it is proven as usable, the U.S company should be sold the rights to produce it.



By all means give them the rights to produce it but that means exactly that - they can be one of the many who'll be producing it, they won't be having any sort of monopoly over it since we'll give the rights to Bangladesh and Iran as well.


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> By all means give them the rights to produce it but that means exactly that - they can be one of the many who'll be producing it, they won't be having any sort of monopoly over it since we'll give the rights to Bangladesh and Iran as well.



Absolutely, which is what I was saying sell the rights to whoever can make it the fastest, the more the merrier.
If they wont sell the rights, then someone will buy out the company, it's a guaranteed money spinner.


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

It sounds as though the States are getting serious.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/fines-prison-time-not-self-isolating-australia-coronavirus-021618729.html


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Sprawler, lets see if they have a vaccine first, let it trial it first, before everyone gets excited, developing vaccines is a little more complicated than one would think and getting it to market takes a longer longer than a few months.
> 
> And if they have one, what stops someone reverse engineering it and mass producing it themselves in these times




Patents.  US Parma muscle. US government political support for US Prma.
Same  process they have been using for 50 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/high-drug-prices-caused-by-us-patent-system.html


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> People die, viruses are a part of life, this is just stupid, the strong survive, the weak perish, that is the law of the land/nature.
> 
> How long do you want a country to go into lock down for?
> 
> ...



I would agree though not in such passionate terms @satanoperca

btw I only realised the internal humour in your name until I wrote it out. Perch well.

The virus mainly kills the old such as I, which is of no consequence to me or any of the youth who will survive to procreate and pass on my genes. The disruption is economic not human, or only human in that people are affected by the economic fallout.

Lockdowns may, and I say may work, in an economic sense. We will need to see the data from China, and a satellite image of pollution may be sufficient to gauge this.

I believe MR. Xi is hooshing the Chinese back to work

Being social getting up close, shaking hands, living in each others houses, bars or cafes is probably not wise as many Italians have done early on in their exposure. It is not the way to go.

Lockdowns as you say can only last so long.

gg

ps. Democracy is the worst system to have in a plague such as this. Just look at twitter where Professorial fools such as Peter van Onselen and other non-qualified commenters such as journalists and bloggers rule the roost and influence panic, the populace and government.

pps. Don't get me started on politicians.

ppps. Buy materials on the ASX in 2.7 weeks.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> No one would have guessed that.
> 
> If it's not verified you still want his Presidency broken, he can't win either way.




And are you still happy with him SP ?   Do you reckon he's doing a good job ? Honest ? Capable ? On top of the Corona Virus ? Making good choices for the country ?

Using his Executive power Wisely for the Good of the Country rather than pardoning  the ever widening circle of advisors who have lied or schemed to protect him ?

Just wondering..


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> btw I only realised the internal humour in your name until I wrote it out. Perch well.



An inquiring mind is a healthy one, few have picked up on it.

I agree, buying materials in coming weeks in a good move.


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Patents.  US Parma muscle. US government political support for US Prma.
> Same  process they have been using for 50 years
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/25/high-drug-prices-caused-by-us-patent-system.html



From what you posted:


_One in four Americans are unable to fill prescriptions due to high prices._
_Today’s drug patent monopolies are stronger than at any point in the last century, raising prescription prices._
_Until the U.S. patent system is reformed, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to deny competition, block incentives discoveries and promote ineffective drugs_.
Well there isn't much point in having a pandemic stopping drug, if people can't afford buy then die, you've lost the customer.
The third point above:
What is the point of blocking incentives discoveries and promoting ineffective drugs, when those who need it will either die or get immunity and the virus will subside, then you have no one to sell the drug to.

Do you read what you put up?


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> And are you still happy with him SP ?   Do you reckon he's doing a good job ? Honest ? Capable ? On top of the Corona Virus ? Making good choices for the country ?
> 
> Using his Executive power Wisely for the Good of the Country rather than pardoning  the ever widening circle of advisors who have lied or schemed to protect him ?
> 
> Just wondering..



No one is doing a good job of the corona virus, if someone was, they would be a standout.
You obviously dwell on him a lot, I don't spend one minute of my day thinking of Donald Trump, from what I have heard he has been taking China to task over globalisation I like that.
As for what he is like as a person I don't actually care, there isn't many politicians who I would like to emulate.
It takes a certain type of person, to take the constant personal abuse and scrutiny from the media and public in general and I know it isn't my bag.
You said:
_Do you reckon he's doing a good job ? Honest ? Capable ? On top of the Corona Virus ? Making good choices for the country ?
_
I'm not in the U.S, so I don't know how life is there for the "common man", and I certainly am not going to take what the media says as a reflection of reality.
So when he goes to the election, your question will be answered. IMO

For me to guess answers to your questions, would just make me another media groupie, which I don't want to be.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

Interesting response SP.  I'll take it onboard.


----------



## So_Cynical (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> No one is doing a good job of the corona virus, if someone was, they would be a standout.



Singapore is the standout, 226 cases with zero deaths achieved via very strict isolation and a great medical system, temperature and or humidity may be a positive factor.


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Singapore is the standout, 226 cases with zero deaths achieved via very strict isolation and a great medical system, temperature and or humidity may be a positive factor.



Good point So Cynical.
Singaporean people have a great sense of civic responsibility, if the Government asks them to do something, they are quick to oblige.
If they don't, Singapore is a very small place by area and the Government has very tight control.
https://www.todayonline.com/singapo...ses-result-socially-irresponsible-actions-few
From the article:
As of Monday, there were a total of 160 confirmed cases in Singapore. Of these, around 35 admitted to not minimising social contact despite having developed a fever or respiratory symptoms.
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapo...ses-result-socially-irresponsible-actions-few.
These individuals also continued to go to work and carried on with their daily activities despite being ill, the ministry said.

They also did not consult a doctor on the early onset of their symptoms, it added
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapo...ses-result-socially-irresponsible-actions-few.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 March 2020)

Yes but why do "largely Liberal Governments" exist


sptrawler said:


> Good point So Cynical.
> Singaporean people have a great sense of civic responsibility, if the Government asks them to do something, they are quick to oblige.
> If they don't, Singapore is a very small place by area and the Government has very tight control.



Vietnam surprises too. Reported numbers in the low 50's as per today.  If the government asks them to do something, they are quick to oblige.

It's quite a disparate place and the government has very tight control


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Yes but why do "largely Liberal Governments" exist
> 
> Vietnam surprises too. Reported numbers in the low 50's as per today.  If the government asks them to do something, they are quick to oblige.
> 
> It's quite a disparate place and the government has very tight control




Yes in times like this, the Australian attitude will be tested IMO.
IMO the media has taken the pizz out of every P.M we have had in the last 20 years, and whether people like it or not, it does erode respect for authority which actually underpins law and order.
It will be interesting times, when the press calls for everyone to take notice of what the politicians have to say, when the press IMO have been telling everyone for years politicians just talk rubbish, are stupid and should be ignored.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes in times like this, the Australian attitude will be tested IMO.



well that's a bit embarrassing. Posting seems to retain earlier thought bubbles. I'm glad it was mild.

I do get tired of the armchair experts. Some contributors would make a better case if they varied their sources. Otherwise it's just ....


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Yes but why do "largely Liberal Governments" exist
> 
> Vietnam surprises too. Reported numbers in the low 50's as per today.  If the government asks them to do something, they are quick to oblige.
> 
> It's quite a disparate place and the government has very tight control




So Don, expert in Vietnamese business, I just put off 10 of my staff, 6 in Hanoi and 4 in Ho chi Minh.

"I do get tired of the armchair experts. Some contributors would make a better case if they varied their sources. Otherwise it's just ...." 

So do I, are you one of those armchair experts? Just a question, not need to get upset


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 March 2020)

Threw to the keeper.


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> well that's a bit embarrassing. Posting seems to retain earlier thought bubbles. I'm glad it was mild.
> 
> I do get tired of the armchair experts. Some contributors would make a better case if they varied their sources. Otherwise it's just ....



There are a lot of Asian Countries, where the people have similar attributes, the Japanese also display similar attitudes, however the Liberal Government there probably doesn't excercise as tight a control on the population.


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Threw to the keeper.



Agreed with your comment, could see the ball coming, but thought they were a batsman, but just another commentator with no skills or more importantly wisdom.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

Its on the record. The virus can be controlled.  It is not a given that it will just spread uncontrollably/

Worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singapore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation. 

They used a mixture of muscle, social support, capacity to keep people fed and supplied and a very sophisticated monitoring system.

Not to say it has been easy and simple. 

It has been done and can be done. China has also sent an advisory team to Italy to assist them in their lockdown
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/countries-contain-coronavirus-spread.html

https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...t-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report
https://www.womensweekly.com.sg/tag/coronavirus/

Report Bookmark


----------



## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

"Its on the record. The virus can be controlled. It is not a given that it will just spread uncontrollably/"
Evidence please. 
 Again, did you hear chinese whisper  
"Worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singapore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation."
Evidence?

They cannot control a virus, it will spread, it will be here year after year after year. Nothing in history has changed, including stupidity.

The so called virus will spread, part of nature, learn to live with it.


----------



## basilio (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> "Its on the record. The virus can be controlled. It is not a given that it will just spread uncontrollably/"
> Evidence please.
> Again, did you hear chinese whisper
> "Worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singapore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation."
> ...




Evidence ?  Did you consider clicking onto the links I provided ? Would you accept as "evidence"  the fact that China is now reopening its industry and has reported  minimal new cases (all imported ) .  Are you saying  that these countries just made up their success stories and in fact have thousands of cases and scores of people dying ? How about just reading the link I have provided 

On the evidence your flat statement that "they cannot control a virus" seems to fly in the face of facts.

The biggest public health scourge of humanity was smallpox.  By sheer hard work.  a ton  on money and  careful treatment of every flareup this highly dangerous disease was eliminated. Many other diseases that once raged uncontrollably have been contained with our  science skills. 

In my view having the attitude that "nothing can stop this virus" and that "anyone who says otherwise is a fool or  a liar" is a bit of an insult to the people and countries who have absolutely worked their butts off to protect their communities and their economies. In the end if we don't follow their example to minimize this mess we will suffer  quite disastrous outcomes and Taiwan, China , Singapore and others who take effective action will reap the rewards.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...y-rapid-response-containment-2020-3?r=US&IR=T


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## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Evidence ?  Did you consider clicking onto the links I provided ? Would you accept as "evidence"  the fact that China is now reopening its industry and has reported  minimal new cases (all imported ) .  Are you saying  that these countries just made up their success stories and in fact have thousands of cases and scores of people dying ? How about just reading the link I have provided




Lets start, so what China is opening its industries. 
Where did this virus start from? 
Actually, where did the last 2 viruses start from? Give you a hint, starts with C
"reported  minimal new cases (all imported )" you must work for the CCP. Has China been transparent in this situation, NO, but know they say everything is okay, you believe that.
"Are you saying  that these countries just made up their success stories and in fact have thousands of cases and scores of people dying ? How about just reading the link I have provided"
I have consistently said, that the figures do not add up and this is way out of control.

It is a virus and nothing more, no need for panic.

HOWEVER, this statement doesn't make sense :
"On the evidence your flat statement that "they cannot control a virus" seems to fly in the face of facts."
You are making an assumption, TIME will tell whether you are correct. My personal assumption is that this virus will remain for many many years to come. 
Who is correct, only time will tell.

"The biggest public health scourge of humanity was smallpox. By sheer hard work. a ton on money and careful treatment of every flareup this highly dangerous disease was eliminated. Many other diseases that once raged uncontrollably have been contained with our science skills."
Sorry, different time in history. 

Do we stop cars, the ingestion of exercise sugars, lack of exercise, smoking, alcohol, pollution of the planet, no.

IT IS JUST A F___KING VIRUS, the strong will survive, the weak will die, nothing has changed since the dawn of time.


----------



## sptrawler (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Its on the record. The virus can be controlled.  It is not a given that it will just spread uncontrollably/
> 
> Worth checking out the experience of the Chinese, Taiwanese and Singapore governments which have effectively controlled the the spread of the virus with social isolation.



Australia isn't a China a Singapore or a Taiwan, we are nothing like them. your earlier post about crime and social unrest is closer to home. IMO


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## macca (16 March 2020)

I think it is all about flattening the curve of infection. There is always a limit to how many people are in ICU at any given time, no matter which country or city.

It must eventually be treated much the same way as the annual flu lottery, it is out there, if you get sick do not mingle or work, stay home.

Using China and S.Korea as guides eventually there will be herd immunity and things can calm down.

I do think the Govt needs to act firmly, both state and Feds, for now, we must stop the food panic, the actions of the Supermarkets are to be applauded and should be backed up by some sort of Govt statement.

Then we need complete transparency of how many died, how many sick and how many recovered, break it up by state and the silent majority will see that over 95% of those in reasonable health recover in a week or two.

Assuming it is similar to OS figures most will calm down and carry on almost as usual, if that happens we can selectively open borders with OS and things return to normal.


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Lets start, so what China is opening its industries.
> Where did this virus start from?
> Actually, where did the last 2 viruses start from? Give you a hint, starts with C
> "reported  minimal new cases (all imported )" you must work for the CCP. Has China been transparent in this situation, NO, but know they say everything is okay, you believe that.
> ...




Ok so you don't believe anyone else including us can do anything effective about limiting this virus.(Regardless of evidence)

You won't accept that in fact we have  and can make a serious impact on the spread  of COVID 19 as we have with previous diseases.  And it sounds as if you don't want to waste time trying.

You basically think this is a survival of the fittest.

*And of course you aren't alone.* I'm quite certain whether its here, China, Singapore, Italy or the US there will be plenty of people who simply say _*"Sod it.  I ain't gonna do this. It won't xxxxing work. It's all BS.  And who cares anyway "*_

Governments, Police, the  Armed Forces get this.  When the merde hits the fan and very difficult decisions have to be made to protect the greater good there are a range of positive and negative sanctions. Positive  ones  firstly to encourage people to follow the instructions on how to save lives and secondly  negative sanction to enforce them.

We now have a State of Emergency.  It's true that more Authoritarian states will use stronger measures to protect the greater good.  But in any country if people willfully or stupidly  undermine critical public safety practices they cop it. Whether its lighting fires on Total Fire ban days or ignoring quarantine regulations or encouraging others to do so emergency powers are there to make things happen. That's why they exist and  must exist because as you rightly pointed out

*" Nothing in history has changed including stupidity."

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/disease-eradication*


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## basilio (16 March 2020)

macca said:


> Using China and S.Korea as guides eventually there will be herd immunity and things can calm down.




Macca these countries did not  solve the problem with herd immunity.  That's total and utter BS.
They solved the issue with strict quarantining , excellent systems to support people in quarantine, very sophisticated surveillance  systems  to ensure the quarantine held and some ruthless processes to catch and hold people who  broke the rules.


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## Smurf1976 (16 March 2020)

macca said:


> I think it is all about flattening the curve of infection. There is always a limit to how many people are in ICU at any given time, no matter which country or city.




Agreed but the issue is that our limit, the number of ICU beds we have that can be allocated to this without affecting other patients who'd be using them, is at most a few hundred nationally given there's reported to be only ~2000 in the first place.

Crunching some numbers here. Real figures aren't available obviously, it's too early for that, but as a scenario:

1% of the population needs admission to intensive care because of this. That's 250,000 people.

They are in there for 2 weeks each.

There are 500 spare ICU beds (seems plausible given there's only 2000 in the first place).

Under that scenario we can go back to business as usual in 2039. 

OK so those are just hypothetical figures but point is we can't sort this in 2 weeks or anything like that. No realistic playing around with the numbers gets it down to something that's measured in weeks, we're talking months or years unless someone comes up with an actual cure / vaccine, we build a lot more hospitals, or we do a mass lockdown and kill it off.


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## satanoperca (16 March 2020)

basilio said:


> You basically think this is a survival of the fittest.




YES I DO. Nothing has changed in 1000's of years and nothing will change in the future.

This is the law of nature, stop trying to change it, humans are a virus on this planet.

Basilio, I have survived 3 major illness, 2 of which were virus, both put me a in coma. I have a depressed immune system, I should be concerned with this situation more than most, but I survived 3 times as I was strong, I might be not this time, oh well, the strong survive, death is just part of living, embrace it, it is going to happen to us all at some stage, it cannot be avoided.


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## basilio (17 March 2020)

I appreciate your personal experience. Surviving what you have through sheer will power, because in the end that is the strongest force, must reinforce  a survival of the fittest belief. And it is a mighty achievement

I can also recognise a Survival of the Fittest ethos. Interestingly enough the current COVID 19 virus touches that cord. It seems to strike at the oldest and sickest.  So why not let it rip ?

*Basically because I don't want to see umpteen  thousands of people die just because we as a society  aren't  willing to try and protect them from infection.*  The fact that at least 3 countries have managed to control the spread of the virus by quarantine and isolation tells me this is possible.  

Lets do it.  

Yes we will all die one day and we all have to die to make way for new life. But lets not cash our chips in so quickly please .


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## Smurf1976 (17 March 2020)

basilio said:


> *Basically because I don't want to see umpteen thousands of people die just because we as a society aren't willing to try and protect them from infection.* The fact that at least 3 countries have managed to control the spread of the virus by quarantine and isolation tells me this is possible.
> 
> Lets do it.




We also need to stop it happening again.

Politically incorrect to say it but let's stamp out this virus and also stamp out these dodgy food markets which caused the problem in the first place.

For all the things that everyone from the military to environmentalists has been worrying about all these years, from weapons of mass destruction through to shopping bags, reality is that none have caused as much harm to humanity as these markets. They must go, the whole lot, no excuses, no warnings, no tolerance.

To be clear, that's not just a China thing as the same poor practices occur elsewhere too. It cannot be allowed to continue anywhere.

I'm normally a bit more friendly but this has stuffed the whole world basically such that drastic action to prevent a recurrence seems more than justified.


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## qldfrog (17 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> We also need to stop it happening again.
> 
> Politically incorrect to say it but let's stamp out this virus and also stamp out these dodgy food markets which caused the problem in the first place.
> 
> ...



If i had a possibility to place a bet with access to real not forged info,
I would bet 80 to 90 pc that the virus had nothing to do with this market and is straight out of the lab
Wuhan does not sell bats.. 
Bats then snake then pangolin....
Our virus has sequence of sars..aka bat.. and hiv..not bat not snake not pangolin
Not pc, and not really helpful to put blame...but this is a Frankenstein

After, should these market be allowed...in China or the so-called bush meat market in Africa
Not ..for buying slice of protected species i agree...
But let's not blame the bats for the virus..


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## qldfrog (17 March 2020)

Away from the bats.,
France intensifies lockdown, EU closing borders..EU has been extremely absent so far in what should have been a great opportunity and best pan national position to act

Europeans will not forget that and EU is dead in my opinion.final nail on coffin
Of interest as it will probably come here within a month
France lockdown has rates tax  water and electricity bills frozen
1500 euro to businesses including entrepreneurs shop owners tradies etc


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## basilio (17 March 2020)

So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?

* Harvests could be lost if coronavirus travel restrictions lead to labour shortages on Australian farms *
Fruit and vegetable farmers face looming labour deficit in the absence of backpackers and other foreign workers they rely on for picking
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lead-to-labour-shortages-on-australian-farms


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## satanoperca (17 March 2020)

"So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?"

That could really throw a spanner in the works.


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## tech/a (17 March 2020)

1500 euro to businesses.
*What a joke.*
That will cover 2 people for a week!

Doesn't go far enough to keep these guys in business.

(1) Moratorium on Rent
(2) On Business loans from Over drafts to Plant loans.
(3) Perhaps a suspension of GST (Businesses) type taxes or even
personal taxes (Employees) for a month review monthly.
(4) Payroll type taxes suspended.
(5) Mortgages in Moratorium.
(6) 70% Food vouchers rather than money for those on benefits
or become on benefits.
(7) Moratorium on Utilities (In place).

*Immediately dont debate it!*

This isn't a permanent thing but needs Immediate stimulation and
genuine practical help in the immediate short term.
These things will / could help.

Everyone needs to share the pain from Employers to staff to *GOVT!*


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## CBerg (17 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> 1500 euro to businesses.
> *What a joke.*
> That will cover 2 people for a week!
> 
> ...



Until the government back stops EVERYONE in this situation, it's going to deteriorate over the coming months. A lot of people have terrible personal balance sheets, let alone their businesses. A cancellation of GST & PAYG might help but it doesn't solve the problem that 99% of businesses need income not relief on liabilities, that helps but it's only one part of the equation.

I think something equivalent of a universal basic income to keep people's bills, rent/mortgage paid & food in their belly. For everyone not just existing pensioners.

The dumb thing is I know a lot of small business owners trying to maximize the 50% rebate of PAYG. I just shake my head at the stupidity of spending large amounts of capital in this environment. It's not a normal operating environment so I don't think normal rules apply.


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## tech/a (17 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Until the government back stops EVERYONE in this situation, it's going to deteriorate over the coming months. A lot of people have terrible personal balance sheets, let alone their businesses. A cancellation of GST & PAYG might help but it doesn't solve the problem that 99% of businesses need income not relief on liabilities, that helps but it's only one part of the equation.
> 
> I think something equivalent of a universal basic income to keep people's bills, rent/mortgage paid & food in their belly. For everyone not just existing pensioners.
> 
> The dumb thing is I know a lot of small business owners trying to maximize the 50% rebate of PAYG. I just shake my head at the stupidity of spending large amounts of capital in this environment. It's not a normal operating environment so I don't think normal rules apply.




While this is not normal there are normal common sense rules that can apply.
How much toilet paper,food,essentials do you need? How much money?

*What can I do to help everyone else.
Where can I lead by example--start with friends, colleagues and family.*

Many businesses rely on small margin and high turn over like a Restaurant or coffee shop store ---
Deli--lose traffic and you lose your income stream.
So the hospitality industry will be hit hard but take away and home delivery is likely to boom.

Businesses need to be at least profitable to survive.
The first thing to do is Shrink
The second is to cut costs--be smart dont look for hand outs.
Help your employees be smart.
Restore confidence in them -- find ways together. The cream will
rise to the top.

*Don' t expect the Govt to solve all problems.
Or be the knight in shining Armour rescuing us all!
*
They cant and wont. But YOU can look after *YOUR* lot.

Setting and distributing a basic income is fraught with endless issues
Who gets it
How do you prove you qualify.
Where does the money come from
Is there a means test.
Policing fraud.


*Could you dip into super* to survive in this extreme case for
a defined period and a defined amount.
There is an end and it will come *BEFORE* ----" THE END ".
Wont be easy but we will come out of this strong and wiser.

I personally like the way leaders are leading.
I might not 100% agree but they are picking up on the good
ideas and running fast.
Some maybe in hind site over the top but better to be too
conservative in this situation.
Heroes will be bare handed in front of a militia.


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## CBerg (17 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> While this is not normal there are normal common sense rules that can apply.
> How much toilet paper,food,essentials do you need? How much money?
> 
> *What can I do to help everyone else.
> ...



I do agree with everything you say, I just think there's a lot of turmoil for a temporary event which I think would be alleviated by some sort of guarantee you're not going to go broke. It would let people get on with it instead of worrying. It definitely shouldn't last forever though as pointed out.

Our family business has been able to work remotely for a while now, we're now doing that as of today and giving a little bit extra this pay to help with any extra bills like extra internet/electricity. We think we'll survive but it's not going to be pretty for the next 6 months.


----------



## tech/a (17 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> I do agree with everything you say, I just think there's a lot of turmoil for a temporary event which I think would be alleviated by some sort of guarantee you're not going to go broke. It would let people get on with it instead of worrying. It definitely shouldn't last forever though as pointed out.
> 
> Our family business has been able to work remotely for a while now, we're now doing that as of today and giving a little bit extra this pay to help with any extra bills like extra internet/electricity. We think we'll survive but it's not going to be pretty for the next 6 months.




Unless you have substantial reserves as a business or Personally I dont know that you can "Guarantee"
that you or anyone else wont go broke. Guaranteeing an already UN profitable business is exactly what 
you dont want to see.

You'll come out of this with so much knowledge you'll be glad you went through it.
My first was 1987 then early 90s recession then GFC now this.
I love the challenge no matter how hard it is. You grow you implement you do
what you have to do without hesitation.


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## jbocker (17 March 2020)

basilio said:


> So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?
> 
> * Harvests could be lost if coronavirus travel restrictions lead to labour shortages on Australian farms *
> Fruit and vegetable farmers face looming labour deficit in the absence of backpackers and other foreign workers they rely on for picking
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lead-to-labour-shortages-on-australian-farms



Foreign workers might be replaced by an aussie born labour force to some degree.
We might come out the end of all this and see an importance in having some of our own manufacturing industries and keeping some goodies for ourselves. Nice to see a crayfish in the shops again.


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## tech/a (17 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Foreign workers might be replaced by an aussie born labour force to some degree.
> We might come out the end of all this and see an importance in having some of our own manufacturing industries and keeping some goodies for ourselves. Nice to see a crayfish in the shops again.




Send all those without jobs in the hospitality industry and others up there!!!
I agree. Become more self sufficient. *Help yourself people!*

How about this as a headline.

*Huge Employment opportunities with our farmers.
*
Which inspires?


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## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2020)

A New South Wales chemical manufacturer has suspended it's production of hand sanitiser due to international chemical shortages.

The chief executive of *Nowchem* on the NSW's south coast, John Lamont, says the factory was making 5,000 litres per day when the coronavirus outbreak started. He says the company will now have to *wait until at least Easter* to resume production.


> _"We're air freighting in product but even air freight to Europe where our product comes from is a couple of weeks away. "Because now Germany and everybody is shutting their borders and that's where everyone get their product from. So we're going to have to wait a couple of weeks until we can get back into full production."_



_https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...9-australia-latest-news-live-updates/12061250_


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## basilio (17 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> Send all those without jobs in the hospitality industry and others up there!!!
> I agree. Become more self sufficient. *Help yourself people!*
> 
> How about this as a headline.
> ...




It has merit doesn't it ? Problem is the pay is pathetic.  The reason there are so many migrant/backpacker pickers is they are easier to exploit.

On another practical level picking jobs are short term. It just doesn't make sense to just leave a home and family or whatever in Melb/Sydney and go picking for 2-4 weeks.

Having said that I think we should try to set up  a system that does work - and ensure people don't pick up or pass on the virus.


----------



## basilio (17 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> I do agree with everything you say, I just think there's a lot of turmoil for a temporary event which I think would be alleviated by some sort of guarantee you're not going to go broke. It would let people get on with it instead of worrying. It definitely shouldn't last forever though as pointed out.
> 
> Our family business has been able to work remotely for a while now, we're now doing that as of today and giving a little bit extra this pay to help with any extra bills like extra internet/electricity. We think we'll survive but it's not going to be pretty for the next 6 months.




I agree it is essential to somehow ensure people and businesses can survive this event. If it has to be a basic universal wage maybe that's what it is. 

Rent,   utility bills, house payments food essentials.


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## jbocker (17 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> A New South Wales chemical manufacturer has suspended it's production of hand sanitiser due to international chemical shortages.
> 
> The chief executive of *Nowchem* on the NSW's south coast, John Lamont, says the factory was making 5,000 litres per day when the coronavirus outbreak started. He says the company will now have to *wait until at least Easter* to resume production.
> 
> _https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...9-australia-latest-news-live-updates/12061250_



Cant we place more goodies in empty jumbos. Humans at one end loading, Humans at the other end off loading. Travel restrictions are applied to humans not products. Govt may be able to fund the flight.


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## jbocker (17 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I agree it is essential to somehow ensure people and businesses can survive this event. If it has to be a basic universal wage maybe that's what it is.



I think this will prove to be part of the answer. We should be ashamed of ourselves if we end up with rotting fruit ploughed into the fields, large unemployment, and people sitting on their toilet rolls in cities with their hand out for govt $.
After all theres no footy to go to and watch and gives people a chance for some fresh air.


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## Smurf1976 (17 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Foreign workers might be replaced by an aussie born labour force to some degree.




If there's one outcome I'm reasonably certain of it's that we'll see a lot of nationalist sentiment arising from all this. Free trade will be all but dead in due course and we'll see some serious moves to boost and protect local industry emerge in most countries once it becomes apparent just how bad the economic fallout from this is going to be.

Democratically elected governments won't have a choice. They'll need to be seen to be doing something about the problems, which aren't going to be resolved quickly given the extent of impact, and cutting the ribbon on a new factory is going to gain a lot more political support than some free trade deal.

I could be wrong of course but I'm reasonably convinced we'll see a move in this direction given that it was already starting to occur in a limited way and that this crisis has exposed the serious problems with the current approach.

Australia can't make more hand sanitiser for the simple reason that we don't have the imported materials to make it and plastic bottles to put it in. Meanwhile in the UK Rolls Royce have said they're ready and willing to immediately switch their efforts to manufacturing medical equipment if government can give them the design or an existing one to reverse engineer. The contrast is stark and lays bare the problems with reliance on imports from a single overseas supplier. Change is inevitable in my view.


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## Smurf1976 (17 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> If i had a possibility to place a bet with access to real not forged info,
> I would bet 80 to 90 pc that the virus had nothing to do with this market and is straight out of the lab
> Wuhan does not sell bats..
> Bats then snake then pangolin....
> ...




My comments about markets are accepting the official version of events from the Chinese.

If it turns out that this virus was manufactured intentionally then realistically the falls in the stock market and businesses going broke are the least of our worries and the world is heading to a very dark place for quite some years. 

That comment's an attempt to foresee how it would unfold, it's not a case of me wishing to see that unfold. Definitely not.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Change is inevitable in my view.



but it will cost. Lotus land may be in for a few shocks. We probably have seen globalisation's apogee

Australia is well set for resources; the high cost economy needs reassessing. Half a day OHS induction for a day's work. Expectation of entitlement by many. 

"_Never let a good crisis go to waste"_ - Winston Churchill (apocryphal perhaps)

The former head of Elders said we produce sufficient food protein for three times our population (at the time 21 million) It won't feed Asia's expanding middle class close inverted commas.


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## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I think this will prove to be part of the answer. We should be ashamed of ourselves if we end up with rotting fruit ploughed into the fields, large unemployment, and people sitting on their toilet rolls in cities with their hand out for govt $.
> After all theres no footy to go to and watch and gives people a chance for some fresh air.



Can't wait to see that play out jb, work for the dole already has big problems, the biggest being the 'work' component.


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## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> . Meanwhile in the UK Rolls Royce have said they're ready and willing to immediately switch their efforts to manufacturing medical equipment if government can give them the design or an existing one to reverse engineer. The contrast is stark and lays bare the problems with reliance on imports from a single overseas supplier. Change is inevitable in my view.



The very reason Britain pulled out of the E.U, despite the vitriol from the U.K press, change is coming and the multi nationals are losing the propaganda war.
Trump calling out China and Johnson doing the same to the EU focused multi nationals, is the tip of the iceberg IMO.
When you can't keep essential items on the supermarket shelf, you know you have a problem.
Just my thoughts.


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## basilio (17 March 2020)

_"A New South Wales chemical manufacturer has suspended it's production of hand sanitiser due to international chemical shortages.

The chief executive of *Nowchem* on the NSW's south coast, John Lamont, says the factory was making 5,000 litres per day when the coronavirus outbreak started. He says the company will now have to *wait until at least Easter* to resume production."
_
What gives with this ?  As far as I can see the ingredients of hand sanitisers are Alcohol,  glycerol and Hydrogen peroxide. Do we not have these basic  chemical ingredients in Australia ?

KSai23/Shutterstock
*  Homemade hand sanitiser recipes that could help protect against coronavirus  *
March 17, 2020 2.26am AEDT

https://theconversation.com/homemad...could-help-protect-against-coronavirus-133668


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## InsvestoBoy (17 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Can't wait to see that play out jb, work for the dole already has big problems, the biggest being the 'work' component.




Man you really are funny.

Isn't the biggest problem with work for the dole the fact that you work for barely enough money to survive, with no rights, no super, no leave, no nothing?

Isn't the second biggest problem that the Government says it's supposed to be a program to get you back into the workforce but all the studies show it's completely ineffective?

Isn't the third biggest problem that more than HALF of all work for the dole worksites don't meet safety standards forcing people to work in unsafe conditions?

No, you think the biggest problem is that people don't work.

Ha ha ha.


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## againsthegrain (17 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Man you really are funny.
> 
> Isn't the biggest problem with work for the dole the fact that you work for barely enough money to survive, with no rights, no super, no leave, no nothing?
> 
> ...



work for the dole is actually being exploited and scammed by alot of "providers" and their approved "programs"  some of the programs are almost created to claim $ from the govt. I have seen it first hand a room full of young kids forced to to there 5 days a week doing nothing,  the plan is to discourage them from claiming the dole. 

Tax payers pay money through the govt incentives to the providers which make some decent coin per head. 

The unemployed gain no skills, have no time to apply for jobs or work on their resume. 

Work for the dole is a waste of time and tax payers money


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## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

There you have it, all the reasons why it can't be done.
Hope the backpackers can come back soon, otherwise the fruit will be left to rot on the ground.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2020)

Officeworks having empty shelves for '*laptops, cables, printers, accessories*'.... all that is needed to work from home. (Maybe hope for the NBN, yet?)

and the clumsily titled edTech sector - home programs for kids to learn on line - is doing a bit of business, as well. Hasn't helped listed KME though

There are something like 600 companies in this space.
https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/public-sector/articles/australian-edtech-market-census.html


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## Humid (17 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Lets start, so what China is opening its industries.
> Where did this virus start from?
> Actually, where did the last 2 viruses start from? Give you a hint, starts with C
> "reported  minimal new cases (all imported )" you must work for the CCP. Has China been transparent in this situation, NO, but know they say everything is okay, you believe that.
> ...




A bit like businesses


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## InsvestoBoy (17 March 2020)

I got an email from Aussie Broadband my NBN provider saying there will be a brief outage on Wednesday night, I think they are upgrading to put in extra capacity for all the WFH and isolaters.


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## Smurf1976 (17 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There you have it, all the reasons why it can't be done.




It can be done certainly but I wouldn't recommend using WFTD as the model for it.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There you have it, all the reasons why it can't be done.
> Hope the backpackers can come back soon, otherwise the fruit will be left to rot on the ground.




Maybe the Government could mandate a higher minimum wage and basic rights for those jobs that would attract Australians instead of relying on cheap, insecure foreign labor?

Added benefit the RBA might finally get the tick up in inflation it can't seem to find by cutting interest rates and goosing the housing market by forcing us city folk to pay a bit more for our fresh fruit and veg?

If only there was some kind of political party that was geared towards this kind of thing...


----------



## InsvestoBoy (17 March 2020)

Or we can just keep sending backpackers to guys like this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03...eal-backpacker-pig-shed-gene-bristow/10872706


----------



## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Maybe the Government could mandate a higher minimum wage and basic rights for those jobs that would attract Australians instead of relying on cheap, insecure foreign labor?
> 
> Added benefit the RBA might finally get the tick up in inflation it can't seem to find by cutting interest rates and goosing the housing market by forcing us city folk to pay a bit more for our fresh fruit and veg?
> 
> If only there was some kind of political party that was geared towards this kind of thing...



That actually may well happen, three things could come of this that could help. Firstly we may well process more of our food for domestic consumption, our dollar will drop and people will be looking for work.


----------



## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Or we can just keep sending backpackers to guys like this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03...eal-backpacker-pig-shed-gene-bristow/10872706



Weirdo's aren't confined to pig sheds, as history proves.


----------



## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It can be done certainly but I wouldn't recommend using WFTD as the model for it.



If this results in a recession, the jobs will be filled, without WFTD. IMO


----------



## basilio (17 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Man you really are funny.
> 
> Isn't the biggest problem with work for the dole the fact that you work for barely enough money to survive, with no rights, no super, no leave, no nothing?
> 
> ...



POTY award.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If this results in a recession, the jobs will be filled, without WFTD. IMO



Where the problem arises is with being forced to spend much of your income on services purchased from the employer. That makes it worse than the dole for anyone with a house, either owned or already rented, or a family to support.

Outlaw that practice and the rest of the problems largely go away.


----------



## greggles (17 March 2020)

Talk of a global coronavirus recession is now sweeping through the media in the western world. The tone is one of inevitability, and it certainly seems as though it may now be almost unavoidable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/15/prepare-for-the-coronavirus-global-recession
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/business/stock-market-coronavirus-federal-reserve.html

Economic growth in China has collapsed. This from the New York Times article above:


> Factory activity in China, the world’s second-largest economy, dropped 13.5 percent last month from February 2019. Fixed-asset investment, which touches on construction of buildings, roads and railways and was long the driver of Chinese growth, fell roughly 25 percent.




Get ready for another drop in demand for commodities such as base metals. Looks like the resources sector is going to be in for a difficult time for the foreseeable future.

And if you thought retail had it bad in 2019, it looks like 2020 is going to be even worse.


----------



## sptrawler (17 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Where the problem arises is with being forced to spend much of your income on services purchased from the employer. That makes it worse than the dole for anyone with a house, either owned or already rented, or a family to support.
> 
> Outlaw that practice and the rest of the problems largely go away.



It is up to the Governments State and Federal, to ensure the awards are followed.
The thing I do know, if there is a real recession, any job is a good job.
I've worked through the 1982 recession, the 1987 crash, the 1990 recession we had to have, the tech wreck, the GFC  and like I said any job, is a good job.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It is up to the Governments State and Federal, to ensure the awards are followed.



I don't disagree but there's a few who'd be screaming extremely loudly about that one since a lot of the "backpacker" work isn't available to anyone else for one simple reason.

A condition of taking the job is spending much of your pay on the employer's accommodation services.

Hence it's worse than the dole for anyone with a family or who has a commitment, either owned or rented, to any existing house. It generates minimal cash with which to pay for anything - it just provides somewhere to sleep which has no value if you've already got a place. 

It ought to be outlawed yes. Pay the workers with actual money that's theirs to choose how they spend.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

And so the collapse begins. This is the first trickle from what's going to become a full scale dam burst if the situation continues:



> Australia’s biggest regional airline Rex has entered a trading halt and called on federal government support as it faces crippling financial losses due to the coronavirus crisis.




https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...g/news-story/50d1fb2b71faa19692225ecabd9eb37e


----------



## So_Cynical (18 March 2020)

Some in depth COVID info - Joe Rogan Podcast.
~


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Until the government back stops EVERYONE in this situation, it's going to deteriorate over the coming months.



Regardless of the detail, the problem I'm seeing is that government can't create real wealth in doing all this.

Hand everyone $1000 today and then take back $1000 tomorrow via higher taxes. Etc ($1000 is just a random figure). There's no real wealth they're able to hand out, it's just borrowed money.

Point being that whilst it might be the only option, nothing can change the reality that we've got a major shutdown with $ billions being lost. That's really lost, gone, and no getting around that reality that as a country pretty much everyone's going to end up poorer.

Just about everyone's expectations are going to be greatly lowered by the time all this is done is what I'm thinking.


----------



## CBerg (18 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Regardless of the detail, the problem I'm seeing is that government can't create real wealth in doing all this.
> 
> Hand everyone $1000 today and then take back $1000 tomorrow via higher taxes. Etc ($1000 is just a random figure). There's no real wealth they're able to hand out, it's just borrowed money.
> 
> ...



Yep I agree, the only reason I think government payments to everyone is that it lets people *safely* stop non-essential activity and not worry about going belly up.

A lot of people out there without an adequate emergency fund or will lose the only source of income for potentially a long time. I know I’d prefer people calm and able to think straight in this situation.

Personally, I see this as a catastrophe in the making for young and old. A lot of people are assuming things just go back to normal once this is all said and done but I just can’t fathom how that works if all bills, mortgages, leases etc aren’t just paused.

I cashed out my meagre amount of virgin velocity points last night for a few vouchers in iTunes. I’d bet Apple stays in business over velocity points once governments takes over. I figure they’ll prioritise staff over rewards, easy choice to make imo.


----------



## againsthegrain (18 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Yep I agree, the only reason I think government payments to everyone is that it lets people *safely* stop non-essential activity and not worry about going belly up.
> 
> A lot of people out there without an adequate emergency fund or will lose the only source of income for potentially a long time. I know I’d prefer people calm and able to think straight in this situation.
> 
> ...




I know the government is supposed to be positive and not panic people (they haven't been doing a good job) but when they say we will make a quick bounce in 6 months to 1 year I think its a joke


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> I know the government is supposed to be positive and not panic people (they haven't been doing a good job) but when they say we will make a quick bounce in 6 months to 1 year I think its a joke




Don't know about that.
The Govt is not panicking but lots of PEOPLE are.
Irrational buying isn't going to protect them or their job 
any better than someone who doesn't.

Vaccine = Bounce.

Even a *semblance* of normality with people being able to go about their lives without
fear of spreading a contagion will see a BIG Bounce! 

Could very well happen in 6 mths or less.


----------



## againsthegrain (18 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> Don't know about that.
> The Govt is not panicking but lots of PEOPLE are.
> Irrational buying isn't going to protect them or their job
> any better than someone who doesn't.
> ...




How much of a bounce can you make when % of jobs lost and business close, 6 months is a long time and lots of damage to suddenly rebound. Just replying to the previous post how things won't be the same,  can't bounce back to normal after this.

There is already 2 strains of the virus by the time they make a vaccine for both... we may have more

Also I am curious if smoking will go down now, big govt revenue there too


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> How much of a bounce can you make when % of jobs lost and business close, 6 months is a long time and lots of damage to suddenly rebound. Just replying to the previous post how things won't be the same,  can't bounce back to normal after this.
> 
> There is already 2 strains of the virus by the time they make a vaccine for both... we may have more
> 
> Also I am curious if smoking will go down now, big govt revenue there too




Social interaction will mean Immediate strong Bounces in many sectors.
From Aviation to Coffee shops.
Toilet paper sales will plummet.
Super markets will be vacant.

Im curious.
Do you have any suggestions that would help?


----------



## againsthegrain (18 March 2020)

tech/a said:


> Social interaction will mean Immediate strong Bounces in many sectors.
> From Aviation to Coffee shops.
> Toilet paper sales will plummet.
> Super markets will be vacant.
> ...



No im not a expert or trying to be one


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It is up to the Governments State and Federal, to ensure the awards are followed.




Except of course Liberal governments make an absolute point of knackering efforts to monitor or enforce awards. That is the main reason for business to support such governments .


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Except of course Liberal governments make an absolute point of knackering efforts to monitor or enforce awards. That is the main reason for business to support such governments .



OMG


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

Latest from Canberra, do not travel, things must be warming up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...pdates-covid19-latest-news-anzac-day/12064922
From the article:
*Scott Morrison's press conference, summarised:*


_An unprecedented, indefinite *level-four travel ban is in place for the entire world*. The travel advice for all Australians wanting to go overseas is "*Do Not Travel*"._
_There is a *ban on non-essential indoor gatherings of 100 people or more*. Australians are still advised to stay away from non-essential outdoor gatherings of 500 or more._
_Modeled on Singapore's approach, the official advice is that *schools will remain open*._
_There are new measures in place for visiting elderly relatives in aged care. In end-of-life situations, facilities will have the discretion to put very strict arrangements in place to enable family members to see relatives._
_*Scott Morrison has urged hoarders to stop panic-buying*, as grocery stores deal with empty shelves._
_The chief medical officer has said *a shut down of the country is not recommended* by the experts_
_*Social distancing recommendations remain in place*, including advice not to hand shake or hug_.
I don't know where the chief medical officer is getting his info from, the media has been calling for a complete shut down for days.
Then again, if he gets it wrong the media will crucify him, and if he gets it right they will say nothing, situation normal IMO


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Except of course Liberal governments make an absolute point of knackering efforts to monitor or enforce awards. That is the main reason for business to support such governments .




If we dont remove your arm you will die.
F*Ck you Leave my arm alone.

The upside is you no longer have to worry about your arm--your dead.
The downside for those hanging out for or unwilling to do *their* bit for
the survival of *all* if every called upon ----- is your* STILL* alive.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Yep I agree, the only reason I think government payments to everyone is that it lets people *safely* stop non-essential activity and not worry about going belly up.



Agreed - I should have clarified that I'm not opposed to the concept, just saying that there seems no real way out of the overall situation overall.

At this point we're trying to put the plane on the ground and get everyone off without a fireball. That ground happens to be an open field in the middle of nowhere, it's not our intended destination or even any airport for that matter.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There is a *ban on non-essential indoor gatherings of 100 people or more*.



I think the progressive ramping up is what's causing alarm and panic.

Less than a week ago there was no ban on gatherings and major events were still happening. Then it was a "recommended" maximum of 500, now it's a ban on more than 100. No doubt soon it'll be close to zero as in other countries.

Same at the shops, in about 15 days it has gone from "no problem" to "only toilet paper" to "toilet paper and a few other basics" to "quite a few more things" and this week alone we've already seen "we're reducing trading hours" and now "maximum purchase limit of 2 items per person on practically everything" and it's only Wednesday.

Anyone able to spot trends can see that things are very rapidly getting worse and that anyone saying "no need to panic", whilst perhaps rationally correct, has lost credibility at this point in that observed reality doesn't match what's being said. 

There's also a disproportionate impact on the poor in all this. Whereas they might normally have bought the home brand product at Coles or Woolies for $5, that's been raided so now they've got to buy the brand name product and go to a small shop to get it at a price of $10 or more. Etc. The shops may not have directly increased pricing but the cost of purchasing the cheapest available products has hugely increased in practice and that's really going to hit the poor.


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

Excellent to see a proactive approach from police forces as they try to stay on top of the multiple challenges the COVID 19 virus is posing.

 11:43 
_Police in Puyallup, Washington have asked criminals to stop committing crimes in light of the coronavirus epidemic. 
The Puyallup Police Department posted on Facebook: 

“Due to local cases of #Covid-19, *PPD is asking all criminal activities and nefarious behavior to cease.* We appreciate your anticipated cooperation in halting crime & thank all the criminals in advance. We will certainly let you know when you can resume your normal criminal behavior. Until then.... #washyourhands & #behaveyourself”
_
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-5e7178eb8f088d7575595616#liveblog-navigation

https://twitter.com/PuyallupPD?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


----------



## wayneL (18 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Excellent to see a proactive approach from police forces as they try to stay on top of the multiple challenges the COVID 19 virus is posing.
> 
> 11:43
> _Police in Puyallup, Washington have asked criminals to stop committing crimes in light of the coronavirus epidemic.
> ...



Maybe the police should politely ask the government and corporates to stop rorting we plebeians too.


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think the progressive ramping up is what's causing alarm and panic.
> 
> Less than a week ago there was no ban on gatherings and major events were still happening. Then it was a "recommended" maximum of 500, now it's a ban on more than 100. No doubt soon it'll be close to zero as in other countries.
> 
> ...



It will probably ramp up, untill the opportune time to 'shut down' is reached, there is no point doing it too early or too late.
Too early and the whole process starts up again after the lock down, too late and it gets completely out of control, bit of a cleft stick situation.
As you say the poor are going to cop it, luckily the $750 will be arriving soon.


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Now we are in for keeps. It looks as if we will have a shut down society for probably at least 6 weeks.
> In my view if we got away with that we would be laughing.
> 
> The measures taken to control/slow/stop the spread of the corona virus will collapse our current economic system.  Our entertainment and sports industries are virtually shut down.  All the staff required the business owners, the shops the purchases just disappeared.
> ...




Looks as if governments are now recognising the need to underpin basic business/household economies as shutdowns accelerate.

*'Survival package' is on the cards, says the Victorian premier.*
Victorian premier* Daniel Andrews *says he believes things are moving forward from stimulus to “survival” payments:

Stimulus is very important. There is a big difference between trying to encourage people to spend and helping people and businesses to fundamentally survive.

*We are getting beyond – fast getting beyond – stimulus and we’re into survival payments – a survival package.*

We have many businesses who have zero income. Offering them a tax cut doesn’t necessarily do it.

If we are going to have some businesses close their doors, if we want to avoid them collapsing altogether and if we want to make sure they are there at the end of this virus, we need to be providing that sort of emergency capital, that sort of emergency cash. We are doing some work, we will have more to say about that.

It is important to get this right. To be calm, to be considered and no doubt, the federal government is considering issues of guaranteeing mortgages, guaranteeing income, all manner of different measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...9-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-latest-news-update


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It will probably ramp up, untill the opportune time to 'shut down' is reached, there is no point doing it too early or too late.
> Too early and the whole process starts up again after the lock down, too late and it gets completely out of control, bit of a cleft stick situation.




Too late was two weeks ago.

The Government was playing a game of chicken between the economy and the virus, they already lost and just don't know it yet.


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

Came across an excellent (IMV) analysis of the proliferation of various stories around teh danger and spread of the COVID 19 virus.
Starts with Alan Jones current dismissal of it as  overblown hysteria but then digs deep.

*Coronavirus: Alan Jones’ ‘dangerous’ virus theory*
Radio shock-jock Alan Jones is used to courting controversy – but his latest comments about COVID-19 could be putting people at risk.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...y/news-story/b7e43fa26ca43ce4b3c858a91fe818ff


----------



## barney (18 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> the media has been calling for a complete shut down for days.




I said to my wife (who happens to be in a high risk environment where the virus has been confirmed at least once) 

In an ideal world, the only way to get this thing under control is by doing the following ...

For the sake of the example lets assume we are dealing with just 1 town or city in Australia so it simplifies the suggestion.

1) The whole population of that City should go into immediate isolation for 14 days unless their occupation is determined an essential service  (ie. Medical/Nursing/Food distribution etc etc)

2) Everyone (everyone!) has to be tested for the virus after the 14 day period except those working in essential services who should be tested immediately in order of likeliness of being a carrier.

3) A further 5 day wait for results (19 days)

4) Any carriers of the Virus after testing immediately go into severe isolation with appropriate medical facilities and become monitored and re tested after another 14 days minimum

5) After testing results people must wear a badge stating their condition as either negative or positive. 

6) The complete process is then started again (another 19 days)

7) Those with 2 consecutive negative tests (wearing 2 badges) should theoretically be safe to associate with others with the same result.

8) After this process was completed 3 or 4 times, it would be reasonable to expect that the majority of those still carrying the virus would now be totally isolated. 

9) Rinse and repeat the testing process until carriers of the virus test clear.

Now I'm not naïve enough to suggest this would be easy or even possible to implement, but IF each Town/City/Country had enough testing kits and enough medical staff to carry out the testing, I believe the worst of the situation could be curtailed in around 3 months which would be a hell of a lot quicker, less costly and more efficient than trying band aid measures.

Because the World has a lack of Testing facilities available, the above cannot be implemented. We need to find a way to improve the ability to TEST large numbers of the population quickly!


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Too late was two weeks ago.
> 
> The Government was playing a game of chicken between the economy and the virus, they already lost and just don't know it yet.



Oh, that's really bad news.


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

Further discussion on supporting all people facing job losses through COVID 19

* Australia's economic victims of coronavirus, just like the health victims, need help now *
Richard Denniss
No one deserves to lose their job because of coronavirus, and there is no good argument against boosting Newstart now

Most people agree we should do all we can to help those who – through no fault of their own – contract Covid-19. The government is, rightly, about to spend billions of dollars on health services to help those who need it. No one expects people to get through coronavirus on their own.

But when it comes to the hundreds of thousands of people who are about to lose their jobs because of Covid-19, our public policy response is not nearly so generous.

The median full-time wage in Australia is $68,000 a year. A person who is laid off from their job will land in a Newstart safety net of almost $14,500 a year. How many weeks could you pay for food, rent, mortgage or car payments on $280 a week?
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...us-just-like-the-health-victims-need-help-now


----------



## moXJO (18 March 2020)

Banks in Italy looking shaky.


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

On a brighter note, I think now I have lost so much in the market, I will now qualify for a pension.

In two years time when I turn 66 1/2.


----------



## moXJO (18 March 2020)

Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.


----------



## MrChow (18 March 2020)

Took Italy 5 days of quarantine to get their new cases to flatten:

Day 5 - 3.4k
Day 6 - 3.5k
Day 7 - 3.2k
Day 8 - 3.5k

Seems like a good playbook to follow the countries who do this seem to be the first to be done with it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Looks as if governments are now recognising the need to underpin basic business/household economies as shutdowns accelerate.
> 
> *'Survival package' is on the cards, says the Victorian premier.*
> Victorian premier* Daniel Andrews *says he believes things are moving forward from stimulus to “survival” payments:
> ...




Victoria is in the unfortunate position of relying on activities such as Education, Tourism, Aerospace, Food and Fibre, Dairy and Pharmaceuticals production for it's economic survival. 

Education, Tourism and Aerospace are set for a significant decrease in income for the state. 

Melbourne itself which depends on being a financial centre, education, tourism, selling coffee to each other and large undeclared criminal enterprises, will decline as Chinese students and others move back to China.

Food and fibre, despite bushfires, may thrive if there is back burning and a green exodus but a general depression throughout Australia and the world will depress prices.

Dairy will suffer badly, as Chinese mums will revert to breast feeding rather than assailing supermarkets in Westfield with wheel barrows.

Pharmaceuticals though sounding promising is in fact more of the slap and tickle variety, vitamins that are not important to well-being and work by observing the colour of one's urine change, proteins that reduce small testicles to an even smaller size and other non-essential drugs.

Thus Mr. Andrews who after a bad start to the response to Covid-19 is correct to panic and act quickly. 

One thing for sure, house prices will fall, and drastically.

gg


----------



## againsthegrain (18 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.



so much for cashless society putting a stop to this, hope it doesn't happen here


----------



## Humid (18 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.




Don’t pull too much out you’ll be arrested with the scummo government


----------



## MrChow (18 March 2020)

Contactless Card sounds a bit better than 50 people rubbing their hands on paper to take home.

Also why is quarantine seen as a bad thing in this whole narrative?  News is making it seem like the end of the world. It's proven to be the solution not the problem.


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Contactless Card sounds a bit better than 50 people rubbing their hands on paper to take home.



Don't start talking sense around here, you will get paid out on.
There is a bogey man behind every corner, about to steal their trolley full of toilet paper.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Heard from a bank teller friend a lot of people are pulling cash out.



Call this one out. Who goes into a bank?


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Call this one out. Who goes into a bank?



Anyone wanting to withdraw a large amount of cash needs to since ATM’s have a limit as do shops via EFTPOS.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Also why is quarantine seen as a bad thing in this whole narrative? News is making it seem like the end of the world. It's proven to be the solution not the problem.



It’s not the end of the world but it’s a massive inconvenience and economic cost.


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

The media might be the next sector to get a wake up call.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...8-p54bfd.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It’s not the end of the world but it’s a massive inconvenience and economic cost.


----------



## sptrawler (18 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It’s not the end of the world but it’s a massive inconvenience and economic cost.



It is, but it is looking more and more likely.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 March 2020)

barney said:


> I said to my wife (who happens to be in a high risk environment where the virus has been confirmed at least once)
> 
> In an ideal world, the only way to get this thing under control is by doing the following ...
> 
> ...




Sorry @barney 

That makes no sense. 

Ockhams razor needs to be applied. 

gg


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

No surprises here.  But this is an imminent disaster across the board.

*Coronavirus measures in Victoria send hospitality industry to 'the brink of collapse'*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-18/coronavirus-covid-19-victoria-cases-rise-to-121/12065698


----------



## basilio (18 March 2020)

One way or another we have to keep people and  businesses solvent and hopefully productively active.

Having said that we know that the Chinese went through this situation for at least 8 weeks effectively locking down 1.5 Billion people.  Cost them a mint but they are now getting back into production. Minimal new virus infections.


----------



## MrChow (18 March 2020)

Exactly quarantine is the solution not the problem.

The blueprint is achieving peak infections within a month and GDP growth again in a quarter.

Great deal.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 March 2020)

Just read that car manufacturers are shutting down in Europe:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51944301

Then I read that supermarkets in the UK are now limiting the purchase volume of all food items and some other products as well.

Then I see that the Eurovision song contest is cancelled.

This has stuffed the world basically.


----------



## Value Collector (19 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Exactly quarantine is the solution not the problem.
> 
> The blueprint is achieving peak infections within a month and GDP growth again in a quarter.
> 
> Great deal.




It’s starting to look like Italy and Iran May have peaked.

That is the case, we may see the “Active cases” growth begin to stagnate soon.

There is currently about 115,000 active cases at the moment (not counting people who have already recovered).

it’s still super early to make predictions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the active cases number stagnate before it hits 200K.

(total cases is already over 200k but that includes the dead and recovered, I am just talking about active cases Eg those currently infected)


----------



## So_Cynical (19 March 2020)

The Canadians are basically giving everyone the dole - COVID19 Benefit, self employed with no income, sick carers, everyone who needs money 
450 per week,  Canada and Australia both have about 570 confirmed cases, 27 Billion for people payments and 55 billion for business.

WOW 82 Billion.


----------



## MrChow (19 March 2020)

SP500 companies have spent $4.5 Trillion on buybacks since 2012.

Airlines now want $60 Billion from Trump.


----------



## Kauri (19 March 2020)

Price of Iron Ore holding up remarkably well. Smart traders betting that the virus will get a hold in the Pilbara, ( a relatively safe bet considering the FIFO nature of a lot of the mines and associated plant/services ), if it does and consequently shuts down a part of the supply chain then procuring Iron Ore may rival the Great Dunny Roll Dash. The resultant hit to W.A and Federal cashflow would put a severe strain on the Pollies Strategic dunny roll reserve. Add in the gas and coal industries and we may have a serious problem. Incidentally I see a lot of retail traders are short Iron Ore.


----------



## basilio (19 March 2020)

*QANTAS just announced a stand down of 20,000 employees...*
That will put a bomb onto the unemployment figures. I wonder if these people are counted as unemployed ie available for work ?  I also wonder how what will happen to these employees entitlements ie  long service leave, holiday pay, redundancy packages at this stage ? It would be really, really off to not ensure the company doesn't preserve these benefits at this stage.

Now I understand why  the company  could last another 6-12 months.

I wonder how many senior management jobs will be part of the stand down ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...s-500-as-more-stimulus-planned-latest-updates

*Update .*

It seems all senior executives will be working on no pay for the rest of this financial year.  Classy move.
The February dividend will not be paid.  Clearly preserving cash.
Full statement at the above URL


----------



## basilio (19 March 2020)

The economic survival package is coming.  (Forget the sugar hit...)

* Australian government plans coronavirus 'safety net' package as fresh rate cut tipped *
Income support measures are set to be signed off within days, as business warns of a ‘dire’ downward spiral in economy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-safety-net-package-as-fresh-rate-cut-tipped


----------



## sptrawler (19 March 2020)

basilio said:


> *QANTAS just announced a stand down of 20,000 employees...*
> That will put a bomb onto the unemployment figures. I wonder if these people are counted as unemployed ie available for work ?  I also wonder how what will happen to these employees entitlements ie  long service leave, holiday pay, redundancy packages at this stage ? It would be really, really off to not ensure the company doesn't preserve these benefits at this stage.
> 
> Now I understand why  the company  could last another 6-12 months.
> ...



Here is a comprehensive article on the conditions.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/qantas-temporarily-sands-down-thousands-215951221.html
From the article:
_Around 18,000 stood-down employees will be able to access annual leave, leave at half-pay, and will also be able to draw down on long service leave early. 

Staff with low leave balances will have access to up to four weeks of annual leave before earning it. However, Qantas said unpaid leave is also inevitable for some employees. 

“The reality is we’ll have 150 aircraft on the ground and sadly there’s no work for most of our people. Rather than lose these highly skilled employees who we’ll need when this crisis passes, we are instead standing down two-thirds of our 30,000 employees until at least the end of May,” CEO Alan Joyce said.

“Most of our people will be using various types of paid leave during this time, and we’ll have a number of support options in place. We’re also talking to our partners like Woolworths about temporary job opportunities for our people.”
Senior Management wont be paid_.


----------



## sptrawler (19 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Too late was two weeks ago.
> 
> The Government was playing a game of chicken between the economy and the virus, they already lost and just don't know it yet.



Here is a link to the medical experts, the Government is taking its advice from, hopefully they know what they are doing. By the way, the article isn't written very well, a bit disjointed.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-...a-s-coronavirus-strategy-20200318-p54bfb.html
From the article:
_Professor Jodie McVernon, director of epidemiology at the Doherty Institute, has shed light on the behind-the-scenes work, including the reason the government is keeping schools open and why their worst-case scenario has proven correct.

She is part of a team of pandemic modellers, infectious disease and public health experts advising the government every day on its coronavirus response for the past eight weeks.

"We are not coming to these questions naively or without prior thought. [We are] coming with tools we've prepared earlier," she said.

We converged early on the expectation that this was the worst case we were preparing for, for say an influenza pandemic, and as time has emerged that's become clear," Professor McVernon said.


“We always knew, we knew on the 3rd of February, that there [would] come a point when it would be inevitable that our capacity could not completely put out every spark.

"Now we are moving to the 'flattening the curve' phase", Professor McVernon said.

Professor McVernon and her Australian colleagues are parts of a global network of modellers who share information “rapidly, openly and freely … so that in these times of vast uncertainty we can together arrive at a clear understanding of the threat our world is facing_.


----------



## banco (19 March 2020)

One thing I think is being under-covered is the bond market isn't acting normally. Yield's spiking etc.


----------



## satanoperca (19 March 2020)

Great Site, if true maybe this is not going to be so bad.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


----------



## trading_rookie (19 March 2020)

*One thing I think is being under-covered is the bond market isn't acting normally. Yield's spiking etc.*

@banco you can say that again!!!! How the hell does the Fed injecting more than a trillion $$$ into the bond market cause yields to jump more than 20%  on a variety of treasuries?? 

From investopedia:
*Open Market Operations*
The other major tool available to the Fed is open market operations (OMO), which involves the Fed buying or selling Treasury bonds in the open market. This practice is akin to directly manipulating interest rates in that OMO can increase or decrease the total supply of money and also affect interest rates. Again, the logic of this process is rather simple.

If the Fed buys bonds in the open market, it increases the money supply in the economy by swapping out bonds in exchange for cash to the general public. Conversely, if the Fed sells bonds, it decreases the money supply by removing cash from the economy in exchange for bonds. Therefore, OMO has a direct effect on money supply. *OMO also affects interest rates because if the Fed buys bonds, prices are pushed higher and interest rates decrease*; if the Fed sells bonds, it pushes prices down and rates increase.

Am I missing something or are things behaving strangely?!?!?!


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 March 2020)

Kauri said:


> Price of Iron Ore holding up remarkably well. Smart traders betting that the virus will get a hold in the Pilbara, ( a relatively safe bet considering the FIFO nature of a lot of the mines and associated plant/services ), if it does and consequently shuts down a part of the supply chain then procuring Iron Ore may rival the Great Dunny Roll Dash.



For a possible trading opportunity if that plays out, Grange Resources (ASX: GRR) operates an iron ore mine at Savage River and a processing plant at Port Latta, both in Tasmania. 

Both operations use a local workforce, no flying involved, and the ore is moved ~70km from the mine to the processing plant by pipeline, no reliance on trucks or trains once it leaves the mine.

It's a tiny operation compared to those in WA, it sure won't save the national economy, but the company could benefit from any disruption to other producers if it pushes prices up.


----------



## IFocus (19 March 2020)

One thing that caught my eye watching the ABC national press club address was the lack of testing in Australia.
The lady talking about it was shutdown by and lady who did modeling of the virus (had to stop watching at that point due to appointment).
The point was you needed proper surveillance to be able to take proper or appropriate actions.

Testing in Australia is way under those countries who have kept the numbers down.

If you know who's infected then you can control the situation in Australia now thats not the case as they have narrow conditions to getting tested.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 March 2020)

This whole situation is getting rather drastic really.

If someone had said on 1 January 2020 that in less than 3 months we'd have the AUD at 55 cents, oil trading at $20 a barrel, most international borders closed, city centers deserted, every major event from F1 races to classical music concerts cancelled, supermarkets selling out of essentials in developed countries and the population locked down in multiple places including those with democratically elected governments then nobody would have believed it possible and yet that's exactly the situation we have right now.

To the extent there's anything out of line with all that, it's that the stock market has only dropped 30% or so. That seems rather mild compared to what's going on in the real economy right now.


----------



## IFocus (19 March 2020)

I am a bit worried given the speed of developments that the government seem to be behind the curve economy wise.

Hopefully they will get more aggressive reading the below is very concerning. 

lots os should be but haven't seen any planing on actions hopefully its to come.


"More Australians are behind in their mortgage repayments today than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis and rental stress is through the roof. This crisis will make this worse.

The National Cabinet and the financial services industry should look at what other countries are doing – including mortgage holidays and eviction moratoriums.

In addition to that, they should also take steps to make sure no one has their power, water, gas or phone cut off because they, or their family, are affected by the virus and can’t pay the bill."


----------



## banco (19 March 2020)

I tend to think banks are too exposed for a mortgage holiday to be feasible.


----------



## sptrawler (19 March 2020)

Interesting article on workers rights regarding the "fair work act", which replaced the "work choices" legislation.
This is worth a read for those members who think they may be laid off, the fair work website will probably give a comprehensive list of courses of action, if members are laid off.
Hopefully it doesn't come to this, but for some I'm sure it will.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...wn-20000-staff.-how-can-they-do-that/12069964
From the article:
_Usually, if you're a full-time or part-time employee asked by your employer not to work, you would be entitled to be paid.

But under the Fair Work Act,* any employee (whether full-time, part-time or casual) can be stood down without pay if they can't do useful work* because of an "equipment breakdown, industrial action or a stoppage of work for which the employer can't reasonably be held responsible".

And it can be for an indefinite period of time, according to Professor Forsyth, but only if the situation which has caused the stand-downs - in this case, potentially, the coronavirus pandemic - is still ongoing.

Professor Forsyth says the Fair Work Act includes provisions on how stand-down arrangements work, but they don't deal with every situation.

"*Employees can be directed, for a period of time, to not attend work while business is affected*, causing a necessary stoppage of work, and that's *without pay*,"

While those rules apply under the Fair Work Act, you should also check your enterprise agreement (if you have one) as it might have further rules limiting employer stand-down powers.

Most larger business will have agreements in place, in which case Professor Forsyth says there may be provisions that state your employer "will need to consult with staff or unions before standing you down".
According to the Fair Work website, *an employer must meet a series of requirements before they can terminate someone, such as providing notice, and they will likely also have to provide redundancy pay*.

"The advantage of a stand-down compared to redundancies is that employers have the option of being able to return to normal pretty quickly if the conditions that shut them down begin to change," Professor Forsyth said.

"In the event of redundancies, they will have to look at whether they can redeploy staff, engage in consultations and provide redundancy pay, which can range from four weeks to 16 weeks under the Fair Work Act."

The Fair Work website also says that under the relevant Act, an employee is protected from being dismissed because of a temporary absence due to illness or injury, for example having coronavirus.

"The Fair Work Act also includes protections against being dismissed because of discrimination, a reason that is harsh, unjust or unreasonable or another protected right," the Fair Work website says.

"These protections continue to operate in relation to employees impacted by coronavirus_."


----------



## jbocker (19 March 2020)

I have just been informed a workmate of my son in law may have the virus having returned from overseas a while before the shutdown. Consequently son in law had been working with this person all week and is now got flue like symptoms. And I have seen him in the interim period, when none of us were suspicious. If the person proves positive and son in law and then myself, then it goes to show the spread is as easy as that. *AND *I have been very reasonably cautious because I tick nearly all high risk boxes..
I have now locked down till I hear of  the results of the initial person.

So I have been thinking where have I gone since meeting, and making a list, and what frightens me is I have been to MANY shops and SEVERAL times (BECAUSE of THE stupid panic buying) trying to get essentials. NORMALLY I am once a week shopper and go only to two shops. Now like others we shop a multitude of times, absolutely perfect for a spread.

So have fingers crossed and shopping list uncrossed for me.

Take care. Stay Cool. I remain confident.


----------



## IFocus (19 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I have just been informed a workmate of my son in law may have the virus having returned from overseas a while before the shutdown. Consequently son in law had been working with this person all week and is now got flue like symptoms. And I have seen him in the interim period, when none of us were suspicious. If the person proves positive and son in law and then myself, then it goes to show the spread is as easy as that. *AND *I have been very reasonably cautious because I tick nearly all high risk boxes..
> I have now locked down till I hear of  the results of the initial person.
> 
> So I have been thinking where have I gone since meeting, and making a list, and what frightens me is I have been to MANY shops and SEVERAL times (BECAUSE of THE stupid panic buying) trying to get essentials. NORMALLY I am once a week shopper and go only to two shops. Now like others we shop a multitude of times, absolutely perfect for a spread.
> ...





Hope all goes well for yourself and family JB if you are up to it would be appreciated if you could update us all on symptoms treatment and how you negotiate your way through the medical system etc.

Having said that fully understand if you don't want to put it out there and again hope its all goes well.


----------



## macca (19 March 2020)

basilio said:


> So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?
> 
> * Harvests could be lost if coronavirus travel restrictions lead to labour shortages on Australian farms *
> Fruit and vegetable farmers face looming labour deficit in the absence of backpackers and other foreign workers they rely on for picking
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lead-to-labour-shortages-on-australian-farms




this is the canary confirming my previous post, if we do not have a time limit to the total shutdown then we are going to have anarchy.

I realise that it is not "nice" or even PC but the fact is that industry Must continue to operate or we are going to bankrupt our nation

If people cannot work they cannot pay their mortgage, the banks of today are nothing but houses of cards built on thin air and BS.

If 20% of their mortgages all default at the same time then None of them will survive.

If farmers cannot harvest then we all starve, if truck drivers cannot travel then there is no food to fight over,   etc etc..........................

I sincerely believe we need to treat it like a bad flu year, isolate the fragile, take extra care with cleanliness, isolate ourselves if we feel sick but soldier on at our work

Yes, it may make the impact worse than shutting down but when do we start again?

There is a Very definite limit to this and it will not be very long before we hit the wall.

We talk about flattening the infection curve but we also need to talk about the financial impact curve as well if not it will get exceedingly ugly when it all collapses.

Real estate values will collapse, mortgages of $2m on a house worth $1m ? good luck with that........

Overdraft reliant on monthly cash flow from debtors, good luck with that...........

Rents on houses that pay investment loans...phhhht

Commercial/industrial/retails rents of thousands a week, sorry can't pay............

Maybe we all need to get a gun license and go hunting for rabbit, got to eat something


----------



## satanoperca (19 March 2020)

And that is just the start. Slippery slop.


----------



## rederob (19 March 2020)

Having spent the past few days watching dozens of Youtube videos on COVID-19 apart from hours of ABC radio coverage, the glaring failure of our government is an unpreparedness despite no less than a month forewarning of its potential serious nature.
A link I provided in another thread showed just one of a number of medical clinics in Wuhan was producing 100k rest kits per day.  It appears that until recently the whole of Australia had around 200k test kits, eg. Queensland has conducted fewer than 25k tests and has rationed their use to the extent that sick people reporting for testing have been turned away!  The extra 100k due to arrive will not go far, and certainly are inadequate compared to best practice.
What I find less than amusing is that what China did in Wuhan (after the horse had bolted) has achieved praise from disease experts for its success, yet we are loathe to do the same.
The other very interesting thing Wuhan did was dedicate entire hospitals, such as those built in 10 days, to COVID-19 patients.  This process of isolation proved very effective and left "normal" hospitals to go about "business as usual."  Nothing has prevented the federal government from utilising our military to effectively establish "field hospitals" for the same purpose.  Nothing except a singular lack of vision.
The ineptitude of Scomo's handling is lost on most people as he "appears" to be doing things.  True. He is.
It's called too little too late.
I honestly have to wonder where decision makers have been hiding, or who they have been listening to.  They are supposed to have the best advice at their fingertips.  I think if they smell them then they are in for a surprise.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 March 2020)

More grim news or opinion, take your pick.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/reserve-bank-coronavirus-response-losing-control/12071872


----------



## trading_rookie (19 March 2020)

I think the grim news mentioned in that article will stabilise soon. Check out the yields being offerred on bonds now...most are negative so quantitative easing or whatever governments are calling it since they're all avoiding the term, could be working.

This has been bothering me since last week and for the life of me I couldnt understand why qe wasnt causing the cash rate to come down, as possed in my previous post...like theory would suggest.

I finally found an afr article titled "Why the reserve bank will push the qe button" and it explains it all. Basically hedge funds dumped a lot of bonds to free up cash. Banks bought as much as their limits would allow taking advantage of cheap prices and high yields...but with so many dumped bonds, yields increased further to be more attractive to potential buyers.


----------



## trading_rookie (19 March 2020)

Aud 0.55c...i wonder if it will go a lot lower now that the reserve will print more polymer notes


----------



## Value Collector (19 March 2020)

Has there been any mention of how long the travel ban into Australia will last?


----------



## CanOz (20 March 2020)

I’ll just leave this here.....


----------



## Sdajii (20 March 2020)

Excuse the sensationalist wording. I've seen this being passed around for a few days (now a little out of date). The global markets have indeed been smashed and will obviously continue to tumble as the world shuts down. This isn't a zero sum game like 2008, this is loss of so much, I'm sure most people here don't need that explained.

Is China really faring that well, while the rest of the world collapses? If so, that really does paint a suspicious picture. It's definitely an engineered virus (it came from a laboratory, not a bat), but my guess is that it is probably an accidental lab escape, not deliberate. There is some evidence that it was deliberate, and this would add to it.


----------



## rederob (20 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's definitely an engineered virus (it came from a laboratory, not a bat), but my guess is that it is probably an accidental lab escape, not deliberate. There is some evidence that it was deliberate, and this would add to it.



You make so many claims without evidence!
Viruses mutate, like the theory of evolution propounds.
You start with a copypaste of a conspiracy theory and then close with one of your own.
Little wonder Australians are panic buying when this is the level of thinking that goes on.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Has there been any mention of how long the travel ban into Australia will last?




At least 6 months the PM said.


----------



## satanoperca (20 March 2020)

Shanghai Composite has dropped 12.4% from peak on the 13 Jan.


----------



## satanoperca (20 March 2020)




----------



## sptrawler (20 March 2020)

Nothing wrong with rabbit Bas, in the early 1960's that is all we had, mum knew 100 different ways to cook a rabbit.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Nothing wrong with rabbit Bas, in the early 1960's that is all we had, mum knew 100 different ways to cook a rabbit.



underground mutton


----------



## SirRumpole (20 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Nothing wrong with rabbit Bas, in the early 1960's that is all we had, mum knew 100 different ways to cook a rabbit.




Plenty of them around here, if you like I can send you a few. 

Talking to some oldies who lives through the war they were a popular food source then.


----------



## Value Collector (20 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> At least 6 months the PM said.




Hopefully it is not that long before planes start flying again, I have holidays planned, not to mention Sydney Airport shares, I can't see us getting the next dividend if the international terminal is shutdown for that long.


----------



## Sdajii (20 March 2020)

rederob said:


> You make so many claims without evidence!
> Viruses mutate, like the theory of evolution propounds.
> You start with a copypaste of a conspiracy theory and then close with one of your own.
> Little wonder Australians are panic buying when this is the level of thinking that goes on.




Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.

If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.

Or, the simple fact that in literally every other outbreak since the advent of genetics technology, we can identify the source. Ebola from monkeys, SARS went from bat to civet to human. MERS from camels. Bird flu and swine flu identified quickly enough they were named after them. Today, genetic technology is so far advanced compared to when we were first able to do this, like the difference between the first computers and what we have today. The reference databases of virus genomes are also huge, as opposed to non existent. We were able to identify natural sources before genome sequencing was even possible, then it took years, these days it takes barely any time at all. From a sample first being obtained by lab techs to the genetic sequence of this virus being entirely completed and released was just days. Now, despite this radically advanced technology and it being used orders of magnitude more intensely than on any virus outbreak in history... nope, nothing to see here, just go back to thinking about toilet paper.

To a decent virologist or geneticist (I'm a geneticist but not a virologist, though any decent virologist knows a lot about genetics) the peer reviewed articles tell you what this is. It's basically a modified SARS virus (based in the 2002 outbreak virus) with HIV genetics spliced in. The journal articles that I've seen stop short of pointing out that this can only plausibly be done in a laboratory, not in nature, and if you like I can explain various evidence for this being the case, but no virologist could doubt the orign. A short piece of that evidence is to say that for this to occur naturally, an extremely unlikely (like, flipping heads a million times in a row type unlikely) event would need to occur in a person infected with both SARS and HIV. If you can get over those astronomical odds, you still require a person with HIV being infected with SARS, which would require an active SARS outbreak. There wasn't an active SARS outbreak before this event. Patient zero had the spliced version. So you have an astronomically unlikely event which could only occur in a scenario we know didn't exist anyway.

Alternatively, we do know that bioweapons and medical research actually do exist, in many labs around the world. No one disputes this. They both involve artificial genetic manipulation of virus genetics. No one disputes this. Viruses do escape from labs quite often due to human error. No one disputes this. For it to be an accidental release, all it would take is one lab tech making a mistake or equipment failure. No one disputes that human error and equipment failure are both real things. This is entirely plausible. For it to be a deliberate release, that requires a much bigger story. Wars do start and the world has been on the edge for a long time, we've spent decades saying it's overdue, so while I'm not making the claim, that wouldn't surprise me either.

So, if you still want to disagree, please at least agree to disagree (or if you have logical explanations as to why I'm wrong, by all means present it, but the picture of it being artificial is so clear it's silly to dispute unless you're just being dishonest for the purpose of not causing panic).


----------



## SirRumpole (20 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Hopefully it is not that long before planes start flying again, I have holidays planned, not to mention Sydney Airport shares, I can't see us getting the next dividend if the international terminal is shutdown for that long.




Yes, dark times indeed !


----------



## jbocker (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I have just been informed a workmate of my son in law may have the virus having returned from overseas a while before the shutdown. Consequently son in law had been working with this person all week and is now got flue like symptoms. And I have seen him in the interim period, when none of us were suspicious. If the person proves positive and son in law and then myself, then it goes to show the spread is as easy as that. *AND *I have been very reasonably cautious because I tick nearly all high risk boxes..
> I have now locked down till I hear of  the results of the initial person.
> 
> So I have been thinking where have I gone since meeting, and making a list, and what frightens me is I have been to MANY shops and SEVERAL times (BECAUSE of THE stupid panic buying) trying to get essentials. NORMALLY I am once a week shopper and go only to two shops. Now like others we shop a multitude of times, absolutely perfect for a spread.
> ...



 Following up on this, Son in laws workmate has proven NEGATIVE. Good news for her and all her acquaintances but we are not relaxing our diligence. I made comment about shop-hopping madness and decided to not do shopping for a week or so, and that will be done by our more resilient kids (on their insistence). Rule: what is not available is not to be chased. Grandkids minding has been removed as the parents are doing work share at home and office.

Thank you to the well wishes and I truly hope you have similar 'luck' with any future encounter.

We are Aussies. Proven fighters. Community conscious. Lets prove it again to ourselves that we haven't changed and get on top of this in far less time than even the most optimistic experts suggest.


----------



## Humid (20 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Hopefully it is not that long before planes start flying again, I have holidays planned, not to mention Sydney Airport shares, I can't see us getting the next dividend if the international terminal is shutdown for that long.



Coles are employing


----------



## Value Collector (20 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Coles are employing



 Did you need me to write a reference for you?


----------



## moXJO (20 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Coles are employing



I wonder if you could get dibs on the toilet paper?


----------



## Humid (20 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I wonder if you could get dibs on the toilet paper?



You could sell it on the brown market


----------



## satanoperca (20 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.
> 
> If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.
> 
> ...




I agree with this, it is man made, escaped from a lab, that is why the Chinese Govnuts went into massive lock down, they know how the virus works.

Time will tell, be interesting if any Country is will to come out with evidence that it was engineered.

The chinese are know saying a US soldier cased the infection in Wuan, this sounds like a great cover up.


----------



## moXJO (20 March 2020)

Humid said:


> You could sell it on the brown market



You back up  the Ute, I'll paint up a sign.


----------



## satanoperca (20 March 2020)

Just located 20,000 litres of hand sanitize, but it is in vats 
Also have found 20,000 facemasks


----------



## rederob (20 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.



I suspect I read far more science than you.
Here's an end to *your *made up conspiracy claim.


----------



## jbocker (20 March 2020)

Humid said:


> You could sell it on the brown market



Hey here is a great start up idea..
'Uber Sheets'


----------



## jbocker (20 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I wonder if you could get dibs on the toilet paper?



I know people who work in Woolies and they cannot get the inside take on any produce. They have been asked a few times by friends and family during this Toilet Roll Famine.


----------



## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.
> 
> If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.
> 
> ...



My theory as well, i posted the link to the article pointing the hiv and sars sequence.
But i do not believe it was intentional


----------



## Humid (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Hey here is a great start up idea..
> 'Uber Sheets'



Wipe sharing?


----------



## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> My theory as well, i posted the link to the article pointing the hiv and sars sequence.
> But i do not believe it was intentional



And 9n the scale of things, does not really matter much at this stage except i expect higher levels of mutations so hard to develop vaccines


----------



## InsvestoBoy (20 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I wonder if you could get dibs on the toilet paper?




I know someone who works at Coles in the back office, they told me Sydney Coles employees can go to the fulfilment centre for online orders in Alexandria and buy stuff there, it's like a giant warehouse logistics hub for all the online orders.

They don't let them bulk buy toilet paper now, but you can at least get some, further up the supply chain than the public right now if you're willing to go to Alexandria, which I guess is easier if you live near the city than if you're a Coles employee in Blacktown.


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## SirRumpole (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I know people who work in Woolies and they cannot get the inside take on any produce. They have been asked a few times by friends and family during this Toilet Roll Famine.




Might increase sales of The Telegraph.


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## Smurf1976 (20 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Time will tell, be interesting if any Country is will to come out with evidence that it was engineered.



I hope not for the simple reason that regardless of how it actually happened, the ramifications of any major country being convinced that it was an engineered virus would be extremely serious for everyone on earth.


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## Smurf1976 (20 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> They don't let them bulk buy toilet paper now




Saw the sewer unblocking truck down the road yesterday.

That'll be a growth area of employment if people are flushing paper towels and so on as they block the pipes apparently. 

There's also the more serious aspect that having sewage spills in the streets sounds like a damn good way to spread the virus.


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## satanoperca (20 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I hope not for the simple reason that regardless of how it actually happened, the ramifications of any major country being convinced that it was an engineered virus would be extremely serious for everyone on earth.




While I agree, it would be serious, it might prevent a much greater virus gaining control with a much higher mortality rate. 

I think many would be sh---it scared if they new what some countries and playing with in regards to bio weapons.

Nuclear weapons are bad, but at least focused, bio weapons are terrifying.


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## againsthegrain (20 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.
> 
> If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.
> 
> ...




Sdajii I am genuine interested and curious because I have no idea in this field how do you counter all those articles which say it is natural?

for example this https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

just a first google result,  is it because nobody wants to accuse anybody officially?  I am genuinly just curious and interested in evidence from both sides


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## CanOz (20 March 2020)

How bad will this get? Read this....
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


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## Rsthree (20 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Following up on this, Son in laws workmate has proven NEGATIVE. Good news for her and all her acquaintances but we are not relaxing our diligence. I made comment about shop-hopping madness and decided to not do shopping for a week or so, and that will be done by our more resilient kids (on their insistence). Rule: what is not available is not to be chased. Grandkids minding has been removed as the parents are doing work share at home and office.
> 
> Thank you to the well wishes and I truly hope you have similar 'luck' with any future encounter.
> 
> We are Aussies. Proven fighters. Community conscious. Lets prove it again to ourselves that we haven't changed and get on top of this in far less time than even the most optimistic experts suggest.





A good friend of mine just down the road tested positive. But her 2 young kids, baby sitter and husband were all cleared negative. The good news is that her symptoms were just like a very mild flu, day 11  and recovering well. She said the biggest impact was the fear, uncertainty and doubt of what was ahead.


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## MrChow (20 March 2020)

Whether Coles had toilet paper?


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## MrChow (21 March 2020)

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/...-likely-to-peak-in-late-april-to-mid-may.html

His timeline for U.S:
- Infections peak late April (within hospital capacity levels) and then drop in May
- Disappears in July and August
- Outbreaks again during September, October, November (Autumn months) but better prepared to contain
- Also sceptical about any Malaria or other drugs being used without proven clinical outcomes


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## qldfrog (21 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> Sdajii I am genuine interested and curious because I have no idea in this field how do you counter all those articles which say it is natural?
> 
> for example this https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm
> 
> just a first google result,  is it because nobody wants to accuse anybody officially?  I am genuinly just curious and interested in evidence from both sides



Just google sars hiv hiv sequence, this should lead you to a research paper.indian release nearly 2 months ago
To get these unique hiv and  sars sequence in the corona virus would require a bat monkey with aids
Basically a proof it is engineered
I posted the link a while back, when it first appears, this info is suppressed as potentially,.i understand that, damaging.
The Chinese gov is recently trying to turn the table and blaming the US.. surprise...
But of course the only lab they have dealing with these viruses is located in Wuhan , L4 lab.
All info available on the web, and from before the crisis..no fake news..hard facts.. unpleasant


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## Dona Ferentes (21 March 2020)

From @bigdog daily post


> Investors are jumpy due to uncertainty about the size and duration of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak and the spreading wave of business shutdowns meant to help contain it.





> Markets are likely in for more turblence next week as investors get a better look at the economic fallout from businesses closures and layoffs. Goldman Sachs Group analysts project that this week's U.S. unemployment aid applications increased more than 2 million



I think the US is behind in it's attempts to limit the virus spread and a ticking time bomb. Until it peaks there, we're not out of the woods. The economic implications remain dire; the market response is likely to still be negative


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

This has certainly exploded.  Unfortunately it is no surprise if one understands how exponential growth operates when a disease is spreading. However when towns and countries  test, isolate and ensure socoal distancing the spread of the virus can be stopped.

* I'm an ER doctor. Please take coronavirus seriously *
Most people don’t understand exponential growth. If they did, they’d be far more frightened
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/er-doctor-coronavirus-exponential-growth#img-1


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

South Korea take a very aggressive proactive stance hen they realised the potential of the corona virus 

 Coronavirus outbreak 
* South Korea took rapid, intrusive measures against Covid-19 – and they worked *
The country acted fast when the virus began to spread. Strict quarantine measures and testing have helped to curb it
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/south-korea-rapid-intrusive-measures-covid-19


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

The  3000 person town of Vo in  Norther Italy  which  suffered the first Corona Virus death  now  has no corona virus infections. 
How did they achieve that ?
* Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there *
A study in Vò, which saw Italy’s first death, points to the danger of asymptomatic carriers


Coronavirus – latest updates
See all our coronavirus coverage
Lorenzo Tondo in Palermo

 
 @lorenzo_tondo 
Wed 18 Mar 2020 16.30 EDT   Last modified on Thu 19 Mar 2020 11.32 EDT

Shares
9,936




Volunteers line up to undergo testing in Vò, Italy, where the country’s first coronavirus death occurred. Photograph: Andrea Casalis/AP
The small town of Vò, in northern Italy, where the first coronavirus death occurred in the country, has become a case study that demonstrates how scientists might neutralise the spread of Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ss-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

Another story on the plus side.

*Tesla, Ford and GM offer to build ventilators amid shortages*
Car companies willing to make ventilators amid shortage
*1* / 1 photos

Car companies in the US and UK are offering up their manufacturing plants for the production of ventilators, in a bid to assist with growing shortages imposed by the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla...strap-masthead&utm_source=acm&utm_medium=link


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

Clearest most practical analysis of the options we face to deal with with crisis I have seen.

* The case for shutting down almost everything, and restarting when coronavirus is gone *
John Daley
Here are the three endgames Australia could pursue, and why we should choose the most radical

Nobody likes talking about the COVID-19 endgame, but we need to choose one. The appropriate interventions – public health, government spending, and freedom of movement – all depend on the endgame we choose.

The differences between endgames amount to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, hundreds of thousands of avoidable hospital admissions, and deep and systemic impacts on Australia’s economy and society.

Many discussions are underestimating the likely political reactions when death counts rise.

They are also underestimating the economic and social consequences of an open-ended epidemic that will have enormous real-world impacts on small and medium businesses, as well as many not-for-profit organisations in every sector of the economy and society. We are not facing up to the social consequences if many close, and credit markets collapse.

We see three possible endgames.

None are attractive, but one is better than the others
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

New York has taken the shutdown approach.

* Here's what a 90-day 'stay home' order means for New Yorkers *
Governor Andrew Cuomo has ordered all non-essential businesses to shut down and for people to remain indoors
Kenya Evelyn in Washington

 @LiveFromKenya 
Fri 20 Mar 2020 17.23 EDT   Last modified on Fri 20 Mar 2020 18.16 EDT

Shares
49




A woman wears personal protective equipment (PPE) as she rides the air-train at John F Kennedy international airport in New York City, on Friday. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York has ordered the shutdown of all non-essential businesses in the state, as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases surged above 7,000. Except for essential services, all New Yorkers are now ordered to stay indoors for up to 90 days from 8pm Sunday evening.

Cuomo called the new measures the “ultimate step” to curb the outbreak.

“These provisions will be enforced. These are not helpful hints. This is not if you really want to be a great citizen. These are legal provisions,” he said at a briefing on Friday morning in Albany, the state’s capital. “We need everyone to be safe; otherwise, no one can be safe.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/new-york-90-day-stay-home-order-what-it-means


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

Where we are now.  How have we got there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...ap-how-covid-19-is-spreading-across-the-world


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

David_Monty Comment from  The Guardian after the article on Casze for shutting down
 41m ago 

2 3
_
Australia and New Zealand should be aiming to eliminate the virus (end game 3) and that could be achieved with a short, sharp shutdown followed by a similar period of aggressive case finding. The first phase of this process does not require massive testing as the shutdown of all but truly essential services would end transmission chains, if we had community support for it. This shutdown would need to be long enough for existing infection chains in households to be broken. At present this option is not being considered seriously. Look at experiences from Hokkaido, the Italian villagge that remains free and many cities in China. This approach has worked elsewhere. Lets start with the simple statement that Australia's goal is to eliminate the virus ASAP and stop it from coming back in. Then design and implement a system that is capable of achieving these goals. But do it now before it is too late. As an animal disease manager I would not be allowed to get away with producing a plan that produces the sort of economic damage that will be inflicted by flattening the curve. Why are we letting our medical authorities only promote this one option when the damage caused by this approach will be extreme? No customers at Chadstone today - try that for 6 months and see what is left of our economy! We need to get rid of this virus now. It can be done.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone
_


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## qldfrog (21 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Clearest most practical analysis of the options we face to deal with with crisis I have seen.
> 
> * The case for shutting down almost everything, and restarting when coronavirus is gone *
> John Daley
> ...



Same as
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...o/news-story/fefb6eb8a17608202d704b40bb4e2dff
But not from the guardian
We have solutions.unpleasant costly

For many, after the denial we saw from January till basically early March, just a flu, buy the dip, there is now anger brewing
Anger for being wrong, blind to the facts and some is understandable
Now people are going to lose their jobs, their homes, their savings and they need to blame someone
For many, at no fault ...
Not a good time to say i told you so ....
Worse, soon we will start losing loved ones

Why is my true blue aussie  dad left dying  when that: fill the blank
Druggie, welfare recipient, migrant, never paid tax or fought for our flag and get the ICU bed
We will soon see people demanding action...


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## satanoperca (21 March 2020)

While this is hardly the most appropriate time to ask a question, I was wondering :
What is the value of a life? Yes monetary value.

Before all the normal ACF commentators burn me in flames, is there a value as this thread is about economic impact, I will provide some parameters:
Age <10 years
Age <20 years
Age <40 year
Age < 70 years
Age 70-85 years
Age 85> and older.

I will provide some further ideas for discussion.
If we have limited medical resources and this turns nuclear and we have the following balance sheet.
Cost of saving someone in ICU is $1
We have $10 in the bank
There are :
10 People >85 requiring ICU
5 50-70 years olds requiring ICU
and 6 people under the age of 30 requiring ICU

What do you do?

Does a persons life become worth less as they get older, in regards to using resources to keep them alive.

Now again before anyone goes nuclear over this question, I have had more than $500K AUD spent on me medically to keep my body alive before the age of 30. I am now 49. If I had to choose between resources being spent on me or my 14 year old son, I would rather day and save him as his life is worth more.


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## IFocus (21 March 2020)

Satan its not a question of money, its a question of our culture.


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## sptrawler (21 March 2020)

https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the...tors-warn-of-major-test-kit-shortage-c-751910
From the article:
_Australia’s fight against coronavirus could soon be hampered by a major shortage of testing kits.

Doctors say they’ve become a precious resource which must be rationed as manufacturers warn they could run out of the overseas materials needed to make them within two months_.


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## satanoperca (21 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Satan its not a question of money, its a question of our culture.



Incorrect, everything comes down to money, since the existence of man.

The reality, is few are willing to provide some insight/discussion to the question, but the question remains and will always remain


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## Knobby22 (21 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Incorrect, everything comes down to money, since the existence of man.
> 
> The reality, is few are willing to provide some insight/discussion to the question, but the question remains and will always remain



My sister in law is a doctor and the truth is that the older you get the less they will spend. 80 year olds are not given $40,000 operations.


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## satanoperca (21 March 2020)

For example Focus,


sptrawler said:


> https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the...tors-warn-of-major-test-kit-shortage-c-751910
> From the article:
> _Australia’s fight against coronavirus could soon be hampered by a major shortage of testing kits.
> 
> Doctors say they’ve become a precious resource which must be rationed as manufacturers warn they could run out of the overseas materials needed to make them within two months_.




Who pays for these testing kits.

As Sptrawler says, "precious resource must be rationed" again comes down to a $$.

For fu--k sake, this whole forum is about $$$$, but when it comes to human life, no one can put an intrinsic value on it.


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## satanoperca (21 March 2020)

I maybe incorrect, but we spend 70% of a person entire life's medical expenses in the last 3 months they are alive. What a waste


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## barney (21 March 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry @barney
> 
> That makes no sense.
> 
> ...




Lol …. You need to read it upside down Garpel 

What @IFocus said above was in line with what I was babbling on about.

ie. If we had enough testing equipment/facilities and suitable quarantining, the problem could be contained effectively. (we don't)

If we can't test large amounts of the population quickly we have no way of knowing who to isolate.

If we don't know who to isolate, the problem will continue to escalate.


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## basilio (21 March 2020)

The question of deciding who gets treated, how deeply and for how long is perennial in the medical world.

All medical intervention requires resources of  doctors, beds, materials, overall support structure.
All medical systems triage.  First analysis of people is "How serious  ?" "What can we do ? "  Is it appropriate? ".  

In crisis times ie war triage is swift and expedient.  
Too injured to survive. 
Too difficult to treat  (not same as before ) 
Treatable if we are quick. 
Treatment will be quick and dirty. 

The situation in Wuhan and Lombardy has been accurately described as war time. An overwhelming number of critically ill people requiring ICU care.  In these circumstances it has been physically impossible to treat many patients at all and in the discussion of who to  should use the limited ventilators  age and prior condition of people have to be considered.  Nobody in their right mind would consider treatment of a 90 year old with advanced dementia.    After that relative age and health issues of people are also considered.

There is minimal time to make these decisions. They just have to be done. In the current situation the shortage is, allegedly, ventilators.  No doubt it is but I suspect that even if  they created another 5,000 ventilators I can't see how hospitals would have the space or the staff to use them effectively. There will also be a ton of other equipment necessary for the effective treatment. 

From a financial POV ? Again the "important" "the social critical" the well off will get preferential treatment over others. In reality becasue this crisis, if it is allowed to expand exponentially,  will overload the health systems. IMV there will almost certainly be decisions made to constrain the overall  medical efforts to ensure the system itself doesn't collapse from impossible demands.  This will also happen to ensure that particular people can be treated.


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## trading_rookie (21 March 2020)

https://apple.news/AVVU5i55sT8qlORljV_763A

*Chances are we might get it': 2700 on infected cruise ship not checked upon Sydney arrival *- the heading of this article says it all! I'm not sure how anyone can deem any sea vessel docking in Oz as low-risk and failing to test anyone coming off the ship?!?! The mother of all f#@kups


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## qldfrog (21 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> While this is hardly the most appropriate time to ask a question, I was wondering :
> What is the value of a life? Yes monetary value.
> 
> Before all the normal ACF commentators burn me in flames, is there a value as this thread is about economic impact, I will provide some parameters:
> ...



Not a bad question, Bill Bryson from memory says around $50 in elements, gold, calcium, etc
Some would argue that some 10y destined to jail or endless medical treatment have probably a negative value, but i would be interested in an average $ per head based on tax paid/received..b
as i pointed: why him not me we can safely bet that this value varies widely by postcode and social background..sad fact


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## barney (21 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> What do you do?  Does a persons life become worth less as they get older, in regards to using resources to keep them alive.




I think it would be generally accepted that once the proverbial hits the fan in extreme situation like this is becoming, its either first in best dressed, or in the case of where a choice/decision has to be made (Italy for example), it will be survival of the fittest ….

The above would be "most of the time". Probably the likely exceptions would be the extremely wealthy who can afford their own personally paid health professionals and may therefore jump the queue.

Copy from … https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

_*The principle they settle upon is utilitarian. “Informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number,” they suggest that “the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care.”*_


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Incorrect, everything comes down to money, since the existence of man.



Power and control are the ultimate objective of many, money’s just a step to achieving it.


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

barney said:


> . If we had enough testing equipment/facilities and suitable quarantining, the problem could be contained effectively. (we don't)
> 
> If we can't test large amounts of the population quickly we have no way of knowing who to isolate.




I'll simply say that it is completely ridiculous that we have hospitals stretched to the limit on a routine basis, that we don't have the capability to manufacture medical equipment in a hurry, we can't even make chemicals or bottles to put them in and because of that this is going to cost far more, both in terms of lives and economically, than it needed to.

If there's one thing that needs to come out of all this it's to take globalisation and send the nonsense to the same place toilet paper goes. Australia needs far greater self-reliance that's extremely clear.

We just shouldn't be in this moronic race to the bottom where we're trying to compete on price with third world countries, a situation that frustrates efforts to fix everything from health to climate change. We'd be far better off spending what we need to spend on things like hospitals, have industry here so we've got the ability to repurpose things in a time of emergency and do things properly.


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> For fu--k sake, this whole forum is about $$$$, but when it comes to human life, no one can put an intrinsic value on it.



Fundamentally our culture doesn't like doing that but some of the more hellish places on earth would have a figure and it's alarmingly low. 

As a starting point though we could take GDP per capita and multiply that by the person's remaining life expectancy. For a 40 year old that comes to $3.9 million - seems reasonable in terms of order of magnitude.


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## IFocus (21 March 2020)

Money only ever a tool nothing more.

Eskimos used to put their old out on the ice for the polar bears, other tribal groups used the old for culture continuation money has nothing to do with it its just culture.

BTW testing of old people is to allow proper control for whole populations.


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Money only ever a tool nothing more.



If you think of it in terms of money being a future claim on resources, which it is in practice, then it becomes fairly straightforward.

Have a lot of money = you can control a lot of resources either materials or human.

Money isn't the only way to gain control but it's one way.


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

Looking at the lasting implications once the dust settles on all this, an issue is that the entire economy is affected in some way, much of it in a fairly drastic fashion, and we can expect significant changes to costs.

Taking oil as an example to make the point, one can certainly calculate a "break even" cost for any oil producer based on costs as of 2019. Once all this is sorted though, well it's a fair assumption that most things will have changed somewhat.

What's the cost of steel pipe in 2021? What's the cost of manual labour per hour? How much does a drilling company charge to drill? What's the approach to permits and taxes from government? What sort of % return do investors consider reasonable? Etc.

Odds are pretty much all of that will change such that it's rather hard to know what it would cost to do something a year from now. Same with anything - whatever someone quoted you for a house construction or a new car in January 2020 will almost certainly be significantly different to the price quote you'd get for the same thing a year later.

This is going to affect everything and in particular it makes valuing stocks based on the company's income hugely problematic since that income will in some cases change drastically.


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## SirRumpole (21 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking at the lasting implications once the dust settles on all this, an issue is that the entire economy is affected in some way, much of it in a fairly drastic fashion, and we can expect significant changes to costs.




So will businesses who have had a significant drop in profits lower their prices to attract  customers back or raise them to make up for the losses ?

This will be interesting to watch. I'd say the discretionary providers will lower prices and the more essential suppliers will raise them. I wonder if the govmint has considered this and will impose caps on things like power, food, rent and fuel prices ?


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> o will businesses who have had a significant drop in profits lower their prices to attract customers back or raise them to make up for the losses ?




I don't know for sure but my thinking is that:

Workers - simple supply and demand economics for the majority who aren't some sort of specialist. Same supply, lower demand as work dries up = better hope you're happy being paid the minimum Award wage and don't expect that to be raised anytime soon. With business now under serious pressure to find cost savings, and plenty of people out of work, if your job isn't something with a very limited number of people who can do it then your bargaining position has been greatly eroded.

Most businesses - fewer people with money who can afford to buy whatever you're selling and who under the circumstances still want your products or services. That goes for everything from beauty salons to oil drilling contractors. Some customers will be frightened to go in your salon, others no longer have the money, and only the most lucrative oil field would even be considered for development with prices as they are. As a business you're now competing for a diminished volume of work.

Landlords especially commercial - if your tenants can't pay the rent well then they're not going to be paying it. Whether or not you kick them out is another matter but if they don't have the money anymore well then they don't have the money. Finding another tenant who does have the money won't be anywhere as easy as it would previously have been.

Passive investors in anything - majority will have lost capital and/or future income.

So my basic thought is that most things will, once this is all over, have a price that's different to the price they'd have had if it hadn't happened. There's going to be plenty of spare capacity among most workers and business for quite some time.


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## InsvestoBoy (21 March 2020)

I think this is a pretty good article

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything/12077096


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## sptrawler (21 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't know for sure but my thinking is that:
> 
> Workers - simple supply and demand economics for the majority who aren't some sort of specialist. Same supply, lower demand as work dries up = better hope you're happy being paid the minimum Award wage and don't expect that to be raised anytime soon. With business now under serious pressure to find cost savings, and plenty of people out of work, if your job isn't something with a very limited number of people who can do it then your bargaining position has been greatly eroded.
> 
> ...



As I said regarding the back packer jobs, when push comes to shove, a job becomes a job.
Ive done some crappy jobs in my time, not because I wanted to, mainly because I had to to pay the bills and stop going backwards.


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## MrChow (21 March 2020)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...ronavirus-peak-uk-when-what-next-how-prepare/

Have a look at their map graphic where the most infected countries are all at similar latitude / temperature.


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## qldfrog (22 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...ronavirus-peak-uk-when-what-next-how-prepare/
> 
> Have a look at their map graphic where the most infected countries are all at similar latitude / temperature.



Mr Chow, are you American? No offense but you offer views which are not usual within Australia . I mostly disagree but respect these


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## MrChow (22 March 2020)

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”


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## basilio (22 March 2020)

Check out this Podcast with Dr Norman Swan. 
We have 1000 confirmed CORVIOD 19 cases in Australia. The real figure is  around 10,000
Take home message is direct.

"If we do nothing more now in Australia, by April 7 our intensive care units will be overwhelmed - that's the prediction. We've got 14 days before we turn into Italy" -- Dr Norman Swan Pls read that again. Not to sound alarmist but can everyone share the **** out of this podcast. And make sure to tune in to Norman Swan's podcast for daily updates on Covid19 in Australia: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast


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## sptrawler (22 March 2020)

It looks as though things are warming up, the assistance package the Government is rolling out, sounds fairly comprehensive.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...daily-jump-in-death-toll-20200321-p54cl4.html:
From the article:
$189 billion stimulus package, to be rolled out.


----------



## CBerg (22 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It looks as though things are warming up, the assistance package the Government is rolling out, sounds fairly comprehensive.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...daily-jump-in-death-toll-20200321-p54cl4.html:
> From the article:
> $189 billion stimulus package, to be rolled out.



I like they're waiving the wait period & asset test if you lose your job.


----------



## satanoperca (22 March 2020)

So we add 45% of the govnuts debt, everything going to be great, happy days ahead, property to the moon


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 March 2020)

Five things to help stop the spread of coronavirus
The World Health Organization is advising people to follow five simple steps to help prevent the spread of COVID-19:






 1. Wash your hands






 2. Cough/sneeze into your elbow






 3. Don't touch your face






 4. Stay more than 1m away from others






 5. Stay home if you feel sick

gg


----------



## satanoperca (22 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> My sister in law is a doctor and the truth is that the older you get the less they will spend. 80 year olds are not given $40,000 operations.






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Five things to help stop the spread of coronavirus
> The World Health Organization is advising people to follow five simple steps to help prevent the spread of COVID-19:
> 
> 
> ...




So having lots of sex is still okay, thank-you


----------



## Value Collector (22 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> It’s starting to look like Italy and Iran May have peaked.
> 
> That is the case, we may see the “Active cases” growth begin to stagnate soon.
> 
> ...




mad it turns out Italy hadn’t peaked, and we now look very likely to smash through the 200k active cases, I thought/hoped the global spread would have stagnated before we got to that number.

Who knows where this thing is going to peak, but hopefully daily new cases plateau soon.


----------



## basilio (22 March 2020)

* A hundred years on, will there be another Great Depression? *
Government indecision amid the coronavirus crisis has fuelled fears of a long recession – unless there is a huge fiscal response

Such was the scale of the global market crash last week in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the spectre of the 1929 Wall Street rout and the ensuing Great Depression of the 1930s has been raised. Comparisons no longer seem fanciful.

The failure of the US and the UK to swing into action with a wide range of mitigation measures – despite the lessons of Italy’s slow response to the spread of Covid-19 – has heightened concerns that a sustained, epochal downturn lies in wait.

And a depression would mean an almost exact repeat of the same period one hundred years ago, when a deeply divided society and soaring stock markets during the 1920s gave way to a tortuously slow return to economic health during the 1930s in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-great-depression-coronavirus-fiscal-response


----------



## qldfrog (22 March 2020)

Value Collector said:


> mad it turns out Italy hadn’t peaked, and we now look very likely to smash through the 200k active cases, I thought/hoped the global spread would have stagnated before we got to that number.
> 
> Who knows where this thing is going to peak, but hopefully daily new cases plateau soon.



In term of tally, France for an example  i know is only testing cases who are basically in hospital already, hard to compare with South Korea or Germany who did wide testing si you will see heavy mortality rate in France vs Germany for example
I still believe Germany adopted the St Korea handling whereas France ..as Australia followed the laisser faire attitude , acting one week behind..too late and heading to  Italian style catastrophe.
We still have the time if acting now to limit some damages


----------



## SirRumpole (22 March 2020)

basilio said:


> And a depression would mean an almost exact repeat of the same period one hundred years ago, when a deeply divided society and soaring stock markets during the 1920s gave way to a tortuously slow return to economic health during the 1930s in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash.




And was only ended by the worst war in human history...


----------



## sptrawler (22 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> In term of tally, France for an example  i know is only testing cases who are basically in hospital already, hard to compare with South Korea or Germany who did wide testing si you will see heavy mortality rate in France vs Germany for example
> I still believe Germany adopted the St Korea handling whereas France ..as Australia followed the laisser faire attitude , acting one week behind..too late and heading to  Italian style catastrophe.
> We still have the time if acting now to limit some damages



I don't know about Germany, but South Korea did a huge amount of testing, because they actually make the test chemicals, you will probably find out Germany has laboratories that can make the test chemicals also.
We probably shut all ours down years ago, and import our test chemicals from China and South Korea.
Just my thoughts.


----------



## Kauri (22 March 2020)

NSW and VIC, ( I would assume other states will follow), announce shutdown of all non essential services, saying supermarkets, pharmacies, fuel stations are exempt. Does that mean the local *bottle shop  *, hardware, office supplies, department stores etc are shutting down? If so, a massive hit to the retail and commercial property exposed sectors.


----------



## sptrawler (22 March 2020)

Kauri said:


> NSW and VIC, ( I would assume other states will follow), announce shutdown of all non essential services, saying supermarkets, pharmacies, fuel stations are exempt. Does that mean the local *bottle shop  *, hardware, office supplies, department stores etc are shutting down? If so, a massive hit to the retail and commercial property exposed sectors.



Oh no not the Bottle Shop, I've bought two cartons of beer, 6 wine casks, two dozen bottles of Shiraz, 4 liters of Jack Daniels, 6 cartons of coke, and a box of panadol. 
I should be o.k untill next weekend.


----------



## frugal.rock (22 March 2020)

I don't know if it's been said...?(there's so many posts that one can't keep up.)
I had thoughts along the lines that the virus seems to be a higher risk for the higher aged in society. Haven't seen death rates stats based on age groups personally though.
However, for the aged people who contract the virus and regrettably pass on because of it, there's a transfer of their wealth to family or whoever is the beneficiary of their estate.
This is an ugly positive proposition of course, but it is reality.
Governments worldwide have been expressing for years now about the financial weight an ever aging population puts on the financial system as we are generally living longer than before, thus the increase in minimum retirement ages.

I wonder if this thought train has gone through certain politicians heads?... as some don't or didn't seem to care until the general populus was enraged and started speaking out.


F.Rock


----------



## Kauri (22 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Oh no not the Bottle Shop, I've bought two cartons of beer, 6 wine casks, two dozen bottles of Shiraz, 4 liters of Jack Daniels, 6 cartons of coke, and a box of panadol.
> I should be o.k untill next weekend.



Just been down the Sands pub, exchanged some spare toilet rolls    for a few cartons of red.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I had thoughts along the lines that the virus seems to be a higher risk for the higher aged in society. Haven't seen death rates stats based on age groups personally though.



I don't have a link but I've seen a chart which seemed to be credible data.

Basically the death rate starts going up once you're age 40 and goes up dramatically past age 70.


----------



## macca (22 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I don't know if it's been said...?(there's so many posts that one can't keep up.)
> I had thoughts along the lines that the virus seems to be a higher risk for the higher aged in society. Haven't seen death rates stats based on age groups personally though.
> However, for the aged people who contract the virus and regrettably pass on because of it, there's a transfer of their wealth to family or whoever is the beneficiary of their estate.
> This is an ugly positive proposition of course, but it is reality.
> ...




This is in Italy, by far the worst

*Threat to the Elderly*

The median age of the infected is 63 but most of those who die are older

Source: ISS Italy National Health institute, March 17 sample

The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.

I cannot get the link to work but search yourself at the address

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says


----------



## IFocus (22 March 2020)

Kauri said:


> Just been down the Sands pub, exchanged some spare toilet rolls    for a few cartons of red.




Good to see you still kicking, risky doing that at the Sands you could get mugged by the skimpies


----------



## basilio (22 March 2020)

AFL has suspended  the season until at least 31st May. Frankly I can't see it coming back at all this year.
That is another big employer and driver of TV product down.
A lot of hair cuts to be taken across players, coaches, club management.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/389309/afl-statement-on-postponement-of-2020-season


----------



## SirRumpole (22 March 2020)

basilio said:


> AFL has suspended  the season until at least 31st May. Frankly I can't see it coming back at all this year.
> That is another big employer and driver of TV product down.
> A lot of hair cuts to be taken across players, coaches, club management.
> 
> https://www.afl.com.au/news/389309/afl-statement-on-postponement-of-2020-season




Would be a good opportunity for a computer AFL game.

All the players sitting at home in front of interactive tv screens taking marks and kicks with their mice , coach's comments in a little window on the screen, all streamed live on the Internet.

Thoughts anyone ?


----------



## jbocker (22 March 2020)

I am REALLY completely baffled by all of this panic buying.
Celebrating my 40th Wedding Anniversary today  I thought I would buy a nice bottle of sparkling wine (strictly Aussie made). I looked around the bottle shop and was ASTOUNDED!!! 
There was full shelves of grog.
We are going into lock down we run out of f***ing Dunny Paper but there is still plenty of grog.
WTF.
We Aussies really HAVE changed.


----------



## jbocker (22 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Good to see you still kicking, risky doing that at the Sands you could get mugged by the skimpies



The good ole Sands, Oh with my luck the skimpies would get arrested just before they got to me for potentially breaching distancing laws.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 March 2020)

As per the latest announcement from the PM, as of midday tomorrow 23 March all pubs, clubs, cinemas, casinos and indoor sporting venues are completely shut until further notice.

Restaurants and cafes may provide take away food only, no dining in option is permitted.

So to be clear, there's no such thing as a restaurant meal, nightclub, cinema or pub in Australia as of midday tomorrow. Well, not one that you can go into anyway. 

Comparing this to past event, it's far bigger than anything else that anyone investing today would have any memory of. The GFC was a minor blip compared to this.


----------



## frugal.rock (22 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Would be a good opportunity for a computer AFL game.
> 
> All the players sitting at home in front of interactive tv screens taking marks and kicks with their mice , coach's comments in a little window on the screen, all streamed live on the Internet.
> 
> Thoughts anyone ?



Haha, Good one Sir Rumpole.
Personally, would prefer to watch paint dry, but that is more indicative of my code bias.
Aerial ping pong isn't my cup of tea unless it's the G Final of course.
Used to barrick for the hawks, for no apparent reason... now, after visiting Fremantle in 2018... go the Dockers?!  Fickle I know.

F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (22 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As per the latest announcement from the PM, as of midday tomorrow 23 March all pubs, clubs, cinemas, casinos and indoor sporting venues are completely shut until further notice.
> 
> Restaurants and cafes may provide take away food only, no dining in option is permitted.
> 
> ...



Which company owns the online and phone betting sites, that covers horse/dog racing, they should do extremely well with the pubs closing their TAB's down.


----------



## sptrawler (22 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Haha, Good one Sir Rumpole.
> Personally, would prefer to watch paint dry, but that is more indicative of my code bias.
> Aerial ping pong isn't my cup of tea unless it's the G Final of course.
> Used to barrick for the hawks, for no apparent reason... now, after visiting Fremantle in 2018... go the Dockers?!  Fickle I know.



At last another Dockers supporter, you have just hit legend status in my book F.R, passion and optimism what great traits.


----------



## frugal.rock (22 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I am REALLY completely baffled by all of this panic buying.
> Celebrating my 40th Wedding Anniversary today  I thought I would buy a nice bottle of sparkling wine (strictly Aussie made). I looked around the bottle shop and was ASTOUNDED!!!
> There was full shelves of grog.
> We are going into lock down we run out of f***ing Dunny Paper but there is still plenty of grog.
> ...



Firstly, congratulations on your 40th... I think! 
You and your better half are Rubies in the rough!

Probably see a rush on the grog shop's now with the pubs, clubs and ristorants added to the social distance measures.
Cheers.

F.Rock


----------



## frugal.rock (22 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> At last another Dockers supporter, you have just hit legend status in my book F.R, passion and optimism what great traits.




Beautiful place Perth, if I had my way we would be living there. 
Fell in love with the place, except Rockingham gave me the chill's for some reason...

F.Rock


----------



## So_Cynical (22 March 2020)

Maybe this time they will inflate away the debt, was always meant to happen after the GFC and didn't....why the hell isn't Gold skyrocketing???


----------



## Knobby22 (22 March 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> Maybe this time they will inflate away the debt, was always meant to happen after the GFC and didn't....why the hell isn't Gold skyrocketing???



Just a metal, and there will be less jewellery made.


----------



## banco (23 March 2020)

I do get the impression that Government is terrified that the rising debt etc. is going to result in a current account deficit crisis down the road.


----------



## So_Cynical (23 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Just a metal, and there will be less jewellery made.



Not just a metal, reserve banks dont horde Zinc


----------



## wayneL (23 March 2020)

Some of the more hysterical analysts I follow are starting to pedal a conspiracy theory consistent with, well, the theory that has been around a long time.

I'm not that hysterical (yet). But it will be interesting to see what increasing authoritarianism remains after this.

With regards the financial/economic aspect, I'm also asking myself, _cui bono._


----------



## Humid (23 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Some of the more hysterical analysts I follow are starting to pedal a conspiracy theory consistent with, well, the theory that has been around a long time.
> 
> I'm not that hysterical (yet). But it will be interesting to see what increasing authoritarianism remains after this.
> 
> With regards the financial/economic aspect, I'm also asking myself, _cui bono._




Speak English man your friends might have PHDs mine have STDs....


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Some of the more hysterical analysts I follow are starting to pedal a conspiracy theory consistent with, well, the theory that has been around a long time.
> 
> I'm not that hysterical (yet). But it will be interesting to see what increasing authoritarianism remains after this.
> 
> With regards the financial/economic aspect, I'm also asking myself, _cui bono._




Maybe you should stop reading the "more hysterical analysts" then ?
Infowars  perhaps ? Alan Jones ? The Protocols of Zion ?

We have a really difficult situation to address in terms of limiting the spread of this virus, keeping people and business solvent in the meantime, keeping peoples mental and social health intact while in isolation and somehow preserving the economic infrastructure of our societies. (Plus  a score more...)

IMV nasty conspiracy theories  come under the heading of 5th columnists.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

Things are going to get very tight for people, it wont be nice, for those not prepared. This will stay in peoples minds for a long time to come.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ia-live-updates-covid-19-latest-news/12079740

People are lining up outside Centrelink offices across the country, with some queues stretching down roads and around blocks, as many businesses are told to shut from midday.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Maybe you should stop reading the "more hysterical analysts" then ?
> Infowars  perhaps ? Alan Jones ? The Protocols of Zion ?
> 
> We have a really difficult situation to address in terms of limiting the spread of this virus, keeping people and business solvent in the meantime, keeping peoples mental and social health intact while in isolation and somehow preserving the economic infrastructure of our societies. (Plus  a score more...)
> ...



Is that your post Bas? I mean people are just recovering from the hysteria about climate change, now this can it get any worse.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Is that your post Bas? I mean people are just recovering from the hysteria about climate change, now this can it get any worse.



Not sure  what you mean SP


----------



## Knobby22 (23 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Is that your post Bas? I mean people are just recovering from the hysteria about climate change, now this can it get any worse.




Yea, it's all climate hysteria. So was this virus until it became a bit too real.
I predict at least 2 million officially dead from the virus in the USA. Still not testing poor people so actually think it will be closer to 3 mil but they won't be counted.

Joke from an American friend (an Aussie living over there):
Q. How does a poor person in the USA get tested for coronavirus?
A. Cough on a rich person and wait for their test results.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Not sure  what you mean SP ?



Well we are worried about people's mental health and stress levels, I was alluding to the fact people have been getting stressed by the media for the past 3 years or so, now we have the virus hysteria those who are fragile from the CC issue must be nearly suicidal now.
I'm not saying it isn't important to show concern, but a 24/7 ear bashing year in year out doesn't help people keep a balanced mental state.
Just my opinion


----------



## wayneL (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Maybe you should stop reading the "more hysterical analysts" then ?
> Infowars  perhaps ? Alan Jones ? The Protocols of Zion ?
> 
> We have a really difficult situation to address in terms of limiting the spread of this virus, keeping people and business solvent in the meantime, keeping peoples mental and social health intact while in isolation and somehow preserving the economic infrastructure of our societies. (Plus  a score more...)
> ...



These are Wall St guys bas, so FU.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 March 2020)

How about the Federal and State governments start employing people again instead of replacing them with consultants who don't know what they are doing?

A lot of public servants could work from home, IT people and managers for instance who don't have contact with the public.

Kill two birds with one stone, keep people employed and out of offices.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well we are worried about people's mental health and stress levels, I was alluding to the fact people have been getting stressed by the media for the past 3 years or so, now we have the virus hysteria those who are fragile from the CC issue must be nearly suicidal now.
> I'm not saying it isn't important to show concern, but a 24/7 ear bashing year in year out doesn't help people keep a balanced mental state.
> Just my opinion




Totally fair point.  I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from  noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.

I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.


----------



## Knobby22 (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Totally fair point.  I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from  noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.
> 
> I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.



 I don't think people are worried enough. Too many not taking this seriously.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Totally fair point.  I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from  noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.
> 
> I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.



I think that is great and it should be emulated by the press, the constant never ending negative reporting on every facet of life, isn't good for the mental health of the community in general.
As in our climate change thread, I attempt to show people we are doing something, as opposed to constantly saying it isn't enough. Maybe it isn't, but people get very depressed, when they are constantly told it is pointless and we are doomed.
Just my opinion.


----------



## wayneL (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Totally fair point.  I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from  noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.
> 
> I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.



you do realise how absolutely asinine it was of you to assume that I was referring to the likes of Alex Jones. You sir are a bloody idiot, try getting some facts first.

As for me I will be watching how the economic system may change in the coming months. I advice others to do the same, just watch and be smart.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> These are Wall St guys bas, so FU.




Really ? OK maybe they are on Wall street.  I  still don't want to hear their theories. 

For arguments sake websites like Zero Hedge  (a financial blog you have quoted in the past)  already contribute enough questionable stuff to the mess. Business Insider had a sharp look at their practices.

In any case if one looks at Wall Steet guys we see some pretty sharp sociopaths who  look out solely for Number One and drive over anyone in their path. 

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...d-coronavirus-misinformation-2020-2?r=US&IR=T


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> As for me I will be watching how the economic system may change in the coming months. I advice others to do the same, just watch and be smart.




Agree. The economic system will absolutely change in the next 6 months.
Hell we already have the US, Australia and Europe underpining a basic living age for people to survive a **** down of business as usual.

Everyone can already see that this mammoth increase of Government printed credit to keep countries going will require some tricky economic changes.

We are effectively in a wartime situation. Governments have taken emergency powers to deal with this crisis. We want to make sure it works and we don't end up in deeper xhit than before.


----------



## The Triangle (23 March 2020)

The government cannot handle floods or fires - something that happens nearly every year.   They certainly will not handle this correctly.  Australia is run by people who have to ask 'What would the Americans do'.  

I'm sure what they can handle is their own finances - and I suspect its only a matter of time until we see evidence that elected officials are timing these announcements in conjunction with their share-trading.  In 3 months this will all blow over and there will be the fallout from who was profiteering from all this.   We will learn nothing from this and nothing will change (except a few more ASX companies will be sold to private equity/china).


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

Excellent overview of current process for assisting people thrown out of work.
Well worth a read.

*What is the Coronavirus Supplement from Centrelink, am I eligible and when does it start?*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...-payment-what-is-it-and-how-to-apply/12080326


----------



## jbocker (23 March 2020)

While I am in fear of what we are going through currently, I also have a nagging concern for the aftermath.
I truly hope that people in Australia will focus on Australians first, and not rush off buying overseas while stepping past businesses lying bleeding in the streets. It will probably cost a lot more but it will help our wounded people get back on their feet. This will take quite some time and take quite some effort. I hope caronavirus doesn't kill our traditional spirit.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How about the Federal and State governments start employing people again instead of replacing them with consultants who don't know what they are doing?
> 
> A lot of public servants could work from home, IT people and managers for instance who don't have contact with the public.
> 
> Kill two birds with one stone, keep people employed and out of offices.




I just heard the PM say that the Fed gov will put on an extra 5,000 public servants to deal with the issue. 

That's a good start.

All the pollies appear to be trying to do the right thing. Not perfect but probably the best they can do in the circumstances.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> While I am in fear of what we are going through currently, I also have a nagging concern for the aftermath.



The long term implications will be far reaching and will among other things change politics quite drastically.

I won't be at all surprised if we see industry protection make a comeback. Australia won't move first but if the USA does it, and I think they will, then fair chance the whole world follows.

How many unemployed people are we going to end up with in Australia? Even a normal recession would give us circa 10% and this is far worse than that.

Once we get to the next election, the collective group of the unemployed, underemployed, struggling businesses and others who are sympathetic to those in that situation will in practice be the ones choosing the government. 

Add in the reality that government will have huge debt and ongoing deficits, with pressure to keep unemployment benefits permanently higher than in the past, and it creates a situation where the voters and politicians both need Australians put back to work and can't really afford to do otherwise.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

Posting this here since it's intended as comment on the overall economic situation rather than the underlying industry.

Electricity consumption across Qld, NSW, ACT, Vic, SA, Tas combined over the past week was 3297 GWh, that being the lowest weekly figure over the past 12 months.

Previous week was 3722 GWh and week prior to that was 3989 GWh.

For perspective, the second lowest week over the past year was 3526 GWh for the week ending 28 April 2019. This week had two public holidays (Easter Monday and ANZAC day) and schools etc shut hence the low consumption.

So consumption over this past week is running at lower levels than that normally seen at Christmas or Easter.

Whilst weather does influence electricity consumption due to use of heating and cooling systems, I think it's no coincidence that the past week was the lowest of the past 12 months and that the past two weeks have both seen significant declines. Given how pervasive electricity is throughout the economy, this would seem to be evidence of economic contraction.

On a state by state basis comparing the past week with the previous week (with temperature data for the capital city in brackets)

NSW = down 10.5% (temperature range 15-35 versus 13-25 previous week)
Qld = down 13.5% (17-32, previous week 18-28)
Vic = down 10.1% (9-30, previous week 10-29)
SA = down 7.0% (11-33, previous week 12-32)
Tas = down 17.3% (10-27, previous week 8-25)

Basis = these figures include all electricity consumed from the main grid in each state regardless of the means of production. So that is the output of all power stations of any type, wind and solar farms, and the estimated production of small (household) etc solar systems (it's estimated by scaling up from a measured sample).

Not included is WA, NT, small towns in the middle of nowhere with their own generators and the separate power system serving Mt Isa and surrounding areas in Queensland. So they include almost all consumption in NSW (incl ACT), Vic, SA and Tas and the majority of it in Qld.

Electricity data source is the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and weather data is from the BOM.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

So  do we see a silver lining in terms of less pressure on electricity grids and less risk of them falling over ?
On the other hand I'm sure this is not good news for the power companies..

Thanks for the update Smurf.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 March 2020)

@Smurf1976
Mate, you are a legend!
Oil and poo figures, now electricity figures.
What can you tell me about Zinc?
And what other datasets are you all over like an echidna on an ants nest?
Cheers.
F.Rock


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> What can you tell me about Zinc?



My top two tips are jump when leaving the cell room if you don't want a shock and don't bash your head on the beam when going up the steps under it behind the power control center.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

The next issue IMO will be the young people with the threat of unemployment, changing their super to cash and also requesting cash out of their super, my guess is it will leave some super funds in an embarrassing situation.
It could also result in the market taking another step down, as funds have to sell to get liquidity, just my guess.


----------



## banco (23 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The next issue IMO will be the young people with the threat of unemployment, changing their super to cash and also requesting cash out of their super, my guess is it will leave some super funds in an embarrassing situation.
> It could also result in the market taking another step down, as funds have to sell to get liquidity, just my guess.




A lot of the funds have iliquid infrastructure and private equity investments that would be very hard to unwind in a hurry.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

banco said:


> A lot of the funds have iliquid infrastructure and private equity investments that would be very hard to unwind in a hurry.



Good point, that will cause an interesting situation, for the members.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 March 2020)

I am guessing that if one was to withdraw super now, expect $0.50 for every $1 previously held...
My advice, leave it alone for 6 months if you can, you may get $0.75 per dollar...
I guess a lot depends on the investment spread chosen at some stage in the past, if any was chosen at all.... who knows what they do with our money, apart from charging ridiculous fee's for something that they apparently do.

F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

Interesting article, showing problems in the ETF market.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...demic-spurs-rush-to-cash-20200323-p54czs.html
Financial regulators have been concerned but uncertain about the implications of the growth of passive investing and of the ETF sector, particularly about the more exotic ETFs that are highly leveraged or that invest in physical commodities, junk bonds and even other ETFs. The regulators have been worried that there could be value or liquidity mismatches that could exacerbate a future financial crisis.

Those fears have been increased by the search for yield. With banks being forced by the post-crisis regulatory environment to become more conservative in their lending, asset managers have become the main source of higher-risk funding and the search for yield in a low-rate environment has drawn them further along the risk spectrum.

That search for yield and the low-cost access ETFs provide to markets has also seen the funds’ investor bases increasingly institutionalised. Pension funds, hedge funds and insurers are heavily exposed to the performance of the big index-investing and ETF managers.
The crisis is now upon us but, so far, the index funds and ETFs are performing as advertised, providing secondary market liquidity even when the liquidity in the underlying securities they hold has dried up.

That doesn’t mean they haven’t been impacted. The headlong scramble by investors for cash last week that caused the yields on three-month and six-month Treasury bills to dive into negative territory has also seen a flood of redemptions from ETFs and other funds.

Last week, Black Rock and Vanguard quadrupled the costs for large investors wanting to cash out their investments in some of their fixed-interest funds. Big investors have had the ability to exchange their shares in ETFs for the fund’s underlying investments. That abruptly became far more expensive as the managers moved to protect the liquidity of their funds.

Asset managers shouldn’t pose systemic risks. They are, or at least should be, purely middlemen, with their investors the ones exposed to movements in the value of the underlying securities they hold.


Given that there are funds with leveraged exposures to high-yield, or junk, bonds and volatile commodity prices, some funds – and their investors – may well see the value of those underlying assets implode.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

It will be interesting to see how peer to peer lenders go, throughout this turmoil.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> So do we see a silver lining in terms of less pressure on electricity grids and less risk of them falling over ?
> On the other hand I'm sure this is not good news for the power companies..




I'll avoid taking the thread too far off topic and just say that short term there's no problem, with lower consumption and everything working there's an abundance of supply.

Longer term though well the power industry has the same basic problems that everyone's got.

First on the supply side, having only essential staff present for operation does limit the virus risk. Downside is it also limits maintenance work and is inherently unsustainable for that reason. So the risk is that if it continues long enough then we end up with rather a lot of machinery in a precarious state and things breaking down and so on. That's not a problem yet and it won't be for a while but as an ultimate outcome it's a concern.

The other concern is about financial viability of the companies. For the small players in particular, the overall disturbance to financial markets combined with falling sales volume and the prospect that a portion of customers don't (can't) pay the bills on time could plausibly send someone broke. Details are anyone's guess but it seems plausible it could happen.


----------



## barney (23 March 2020)

Just posted this on the below thread.  I hope it is for real.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...eld-to-account-what-do-you-think.35297/page-3

*COVID-19 test could return results in under an hour*

Australian regulators have approved another *rapid diagnostic test* for COVID-19.

As the ABC's national science reporter Michael Slezak explains, it promises to give *results in just 45 minutes,* without requiring the sample to be sent to a specialised lab.

The new test has received *expedited approval by the Therapeutics Goods Administration (TGA)*.

Earlier today, it was revealed the TGA had approved the another rapid test for diagnosing COVID-19, which could produce results in just* 15 minutes*.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'll avoid taking the thread too far off topic and just say that short term there's no problem, with lower consumption and everything working there's an abundance of supply.
> 
> Longer term though well the power industry has the same basic problems that everyone's got.
> 
> ...




Sad.. Not surprised  though.

Perhaps this is the time to renationalise the network for one dollar.  Get it off their hands.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

barney said:


> Just posted this on the below thread.  I hope it is for real.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...eld-to-account-what-do-you-think.35297/page-3
> 
> ...




Excellent !!  The capacity to quickly test people for the virus an make informed decisions is  brilliant.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Posting this here since it's intended as comment on the overall economic situation rather than the underlying industry.
> 
> Electricity consumption



I should emphasise that my point in that post is using electricity consumption as a proxy for economic activity. Whilst far from perfect, it's data that's available.

Now I'm thinking of what other data might be available?

Anyone know of any publicly available data for things like public transport trips taken or freight volumes or anything else that relates to all or at least a substantial portion of the economy?

There's monthly data for fuel sales (petrol, diesel etc) but the latest one out is for January and that doesn't show anything of significance. 

My thought is trying to quantify the extent of the contraction. I mean we all know it's happening but trying to put some figures on it.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

For those here whose job or business has collapsed and will need some financial support. Please note this also includes uni students. They say the system has been substantially streamlined because of the crisis.  Hope it works for you if you need it.

* Am I eligible for Centrelink payments? How to apply for the coronavirus supplement *
The government has doubled unemployment benefits to assist people and businesses losing work. Here’s how you can apply

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-how-to-apply-for-the-coronavirus-supplement


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

I reckon in a months time the unemployment rate will be at least 25%.  In fact with 10s of thousands of self employed and sole traders also eligible who knows how high it will go. Any other thoughts ?

I can understand why the Government postponed the budget until October.  The opposition is in lock step as well so the only criticisms  will be implementation rather than policy.

Totally uncharted waters here.


----------



## againsthegrain (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I reckon in a months time the unemployment rate will be at least 25%.  In fact with 10s of thousands of self employed and sole traders also eligible who knows how high it will go. Any other thoughts ?
> 
> I can understand why the Government postponed the budget until October.  The opposition is in lock step as well so the only criticisms  will be implementation rather than policy.
> 
> Totally uncharted waters here.




definitely possible,  now there is no hiding behind under-employment,  clothes are off lights about to be flicked on


----------



## satanoperca (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I reckon in a months time the unemployment rate will be at least 25%.  In fact with 10s of thousands of self employed and sole traders also eligible who knows how high it will go. Any other thoughts ?
> 
> I can understand why the Government postponed the budget until October.  The opposition is in lock step as well so the only criticisms  will be implementation rather than policy.
> 
> Totally uncharted waters here.




While I do not disagree, I am hoping it is more around 15% which is still very very bad, given the RBA chased lower IR's to decrease unemployment.

But lets say you are correct. 25% unemployment would see property crash at least the same amount, resulting in a death spiral of even higher unemployment rates.

End result, anarchy. Only the strong and those willing to fight for survival will get through this.

My words might be strong, but we only minutes away in the global time clock from this happening. But we must be thankful that we live in Oz, where most people do not have guns.

Unlike the US, the second amendment is going to be the downfall of the US govnuts.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Any other thoughts ?



Main one is about the long term.

With so much uncertainty there aren't going to be many willing to spend on anything not essential. So even things which haven't been directly affected and which are still open will, if they aren't some sort of essential product or service, likely see a decline in sales volume.

I doubt there'd be too many people thinking of renovating the bathroom using paid traides (as distinct from DIY) or getting a new car right now for example. There's going to be a reluctance to spend given all this.


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

Really worth reading this overview of how our political parties are coping with this crisis.

* Our politicians scramble for hope as Australia, one of the most gregarious nations on earth, folds in on itself *
Katharine Murphy
This pandemic has stolen their certainty, and yet they must lead. They are called to make decisions guided by expertise that is contested minute by minute

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...mble-for-hope-as-australia-folds-in-on-itself


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

A report on the expected unemployment numbers, probably being a bit conservative.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-face-unemployment-queue-20200323-p54d14.html
From the article:
_The Sydney Morning Herald_ and _The Age_ have spoken to senior sources in the banking and the forecasting sectors who said their analysis showed Australia was headed for an unemployment rate of 15 per cent or more. It currently stands at 5.1 per cent.
In the Sydney CBD more than 15,000 hospitality jobs are set to go under the shutdown of pubs and clubs and the implementation of takeaway-only restrictions on cafes and restaurants. A further 11,000 hospitality jobs in the Melbourne CBD are also on the line.

Across Melbourne's suburbs, St Kilda, Richmond, and Brunswick will be among the hardest hit, with 3000 hospitality jobs in each set to disappear under the shutdown measures. In Sydney, Pyrmont and Ultimo could lose 4900 jobs, while a further 3000 could go in each of Redfern, Chippendale, Strathfield and Surry Hills.

ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said unemployment would climb rapidly and in much greater numbers than Australia experienced during the global financial crisis, when the jobless rate lifted from 4 per cent to 5.9 per cent over a 15-month period.


----------



## IFocus (23 March 2020)

At current rate we run out of ICU beds estimated April 8th





https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak


----------



## basilio (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Main one is about the long term.
> 
> With so much uncertainty there aren't going to be many willing to spend on anything not essential. So even things which haven't been directly affected and which are still open will, if they aren't some sort of essential product or service, likely see a decline in sales volume.
> 
> I doubt there'd be too many people thinking of renovating the bathroom using paid traides (as distinct from DIY) or getting a new car right now for example. There's going to be a reluctance to spend given all this.




Good point.  In my view this crisis will change everything. Where things will go is totally uncertain.  I think governments *NOW* should be planning as very strong series of new investment priorities to come on stream as we (hopefully) sort out this crisis. 

Do we simply go back to a consumption  based economy with endless flights to lookalike holiday places  and buying  endless counterfeit tat ?  Do we build bigger and bigger houses and yachts  as monuments to obscene wealth ?  Or are there more worthwhile and necessary priorities ? 

What vision  should our governments  offer our communities when we come out of this situation particularly if the crisis turns totally ugly  (as distinct from just a middling catastrophe ..)


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> While I do not disagree, I am hoping it is more around 15% which is still very very bad, given the RBA chased lower IR's to decrease unemployment.
> 
> But lets say you are correct. 25% unemployment would see property crash at least the same amount, resulting in a death spiral of even higher unemployment rates.




This chart covering Australia's unemployment rate for the whole of last century illustrates a few key points:




https://images.theconversation.com/...lib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip

First obvious point is that once the rate goes up, it takes a very long time to come back down. Went up with the 1929 crash, didn't come back down until WW2 was underway. 

One could argue that we still haven't recovered from the 1973 Oil Embargo either. It never came back down to what had been considered normal for the previous 30+ years.

Or for a less extreme example, consider the last two recessions. Both ended up close to a decade long event in terms of resultant unemployment indeed it was straight out of one and into the next.

I have trouble believing that we'll see a quick rebound for that reason, history shows otherwise. A quick drop to some extent as things re-open sure but it's very unlikely that we'll see everyone back to business as usual straight away. People without jobs don't go on expensive holidays and so on.


----------



## satanoperca (23 March 2020)

Thanks Smurf, great analysis. So what first is a reasonable unemployment level that is both sustainable and efficient, for me is it somewhere between 4-5%, but that is dependent on the measurement of unemployment.
I also agree with your statement above, this time like all times, it will take years for the unemployment levels to return to perceived normal.


----------



## wayneL (23 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> While I do not disagree, I am hoping it is more around 15% which is still very very bad, given the RBA chased lower IR's to decrease unemployment.
> 
> But lets say you are correct. 25% unemployment would see property crash at least the same amount, resulting in a death spiral of even higher unemployment rates.
> 
> ...



Re the unemployment rate, it is not likely to include the self employed who are out of work, so you could be right about that lower figure, but it won't reflect the true picture.

My own industry had an even chance between between declared essential, and shut down.


----------



## barney (23 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Re the unemployment rate, it is not likely to include the self employed who are out of work, so you could be right about that lower figure.




+1 …. I'm self employed … Phone has literally stopped ringing.  I'm fortunate my wife still has her job so a lot better off than many.


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I have trouble believing that we'll see a quick rebound for that reason, history shows otherwise. A quick drop to some extent as things re-open sure but it's very unlikely that we'll see everyone back to business as usual straight away. People without jobs don't go on expensive holidays and so on.



The psychological scars that will be left over will take years to heal, some people will lose their houses, cars and may be evicted, they will have to learn to compromise and possibly share accommodation, learn to live within their means and adapt to public transport.
A lot of these people just three months ago were probably working out what holidays they were going to have this year, now they are wondering how they are going to manage next month, it will be the biggest shock some of the younger generation have ever faced.
The money dries up but the bills don't stop piling up, it wont have sunk in yet, but if this goes on for the rest of 2020 it will stay in peoples minds for a long time.
It will also change the landscape of our retail sector, in recent years it has been struggling, well now it will be decimated.
It is amazing how quickly the business landscape has changed, unfortunately as happens when crashes like this come along, not many are in the financial position or mental position to risk pouring in more capital.
Just my opinion


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

barney said:


> I'm self employed … Phone has literally stopped ringing.



I've heard that from quite a few people over the past couple of weeks.

Calls stopped and they mean completely stopped. Nobody even wants a quote.


----------



## Humid (23 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I reckon in a months time the unemployment rate will be at least 25%.  In fact with 10s of thousands of self employed and sole traders also eligible who knows how high it will go. Any other thoughts ?
> 
> I can understand why the Government postponed the budget until October.  The opposition is in lock step as well so the only criticisms  will be implementation rather than policy.
> 
> Totally uncharted waters here.




It’s not just that the working people they used to count even though they did minimal hours will be counted for the first time
The REAL unemployment figures


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The psychological scars that will be left over will take years to heal, some people will lose their houses, cars and may be evicted, they will have to learn to compromise and possibly share accommodation, learn to live within their means and adapt to public transport.




One thing is I think those under the age of 40 are about to understand why the word "recession" brings a fearful look to the eyes of the older people. 

That said, this is going to be worse than the last recession since what worked then in many cases can't possibly work now due to being banned.


----------



## jbocker (24 March 2020)

I have a few friends (grey nomads) who start packing their vans around now and plan to migrate north from Perth late April. I have yet to ask, but wonder if any will travel now. 
They (being city folk) might not be welcome in the towns they pass through, I have visions of blockades set up by the locals (Have I been watching too many movies?).
If our towns in the country are relatively clean maybe a lockout isn't such a bad idea. While they would like our $ they wont want our bugs.
Road Trains excepted.


----------



## ducati916 (24 March 2020)

NZ just gone into lockdown mode as of today. Only essential services. We have a 1 month target currently, although that could change.

Even in the height of the IRA bombings in London, never had anything quite like this.

jog on
duc


----------



## moXJO (24 March 2020)

Round my local area tradies were doing it tough just before the drought broke (during the fires).
The rain made people spend again and saved a lot of tradies. 
A lot were already stretched before this came along.


----------



## frugal.rock (24 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've heard that from quite a few people over the past couple of weeks.
> 
> Calls stopped and they mean completely stopped. Nobody even wants a quote.



+1.  Hang in there Barney. Got a lawn mower?
We are lucky, the cheese and kisses (formerly known as the trouble and strife) had around 240 hours personal/sick leave accrued... by the time she gets back to work (Friday week) it's all gone... 5 years worth, she only had 2 or 3 sickies in 5 years.  Genuine sickies I might ad...
F.Rock


----------



## barney (24 March 2020)

"Fast Test Kits" further reported on this morning so it looks the real deal.

The fast test was developed by China in response to the outbreak.  

Initially 500,000 kits to be purchased/imported … more if we need them!  ….Doh! ….   


Quoted from the news report:- _*While Australian health officials say the tests have merit, some experts have expressed concerns about the kits and their efficacy.
*_
(My view):-  If they have any doubts ... *TEST* the test kits against the proven long test procedure and see how they stack up ....... Bureaucrats some times need a red hot poker employed in a strategic position.

Even if the tests are only 80-90% accurate, its a damn site better option than what we are being given at the moment!

I'd suggest they buy 20 million kits if possible and get this thing under control. If all carriers are quarantined, the problem is diminished by around 99%  ...... "wake up Jeff time!"

Apologies if I sound frustrated ….. but serious problems which are exacerbated by inaction from those who can afford it, at the expense of those who can least afford it, really annoys me

link:- https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ive-urgent-approval-from-australian-regulator
​


----------



## barney (24 March 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> ... by the time she gets back to work (Friday week) it's all gone... 5 years worth, she only had 2 or 3 sickies in 5 years.




She sounds like my better half .... great work ethic

ps. I'm not a lawny but it may be one job that doesn't get totally demolished.  Grass keeps growing, although I suspect a lot of people will start mowing their own from now on so even the lawnies will suffer some down turn.


----------



## qldfrog (24 March 2020)

barney said:


> I suspect a lot of people will start mowing their own from now on so even the lawnies will suffer some down turn.



The only small jobs like that during the recession was basically donations by the few slightly better off to the one starving;
The last thing I want with no income is to pay someone to cut my lawn or repaint my shed


----------



## sptrawler (24 March 2020)

barney said:


> She sounds like my better half .... great work ethic
> 
> ps. I'm not a lawny but it may be one job that doesn't get totally demolished.  Grass keeps growing, although I suspect a lot of people will start mowing their own from now on so even the lawnies will suffer some down turn.



That is interesting, because a mate who works on the council verge pick up, was saying recently how he can't believe how many good lawnmowers were on the verge.
There may be some people who wish they had waited, before outsourcing the job.


----------



## barney (24 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The only small jobs like that during the recession was basically donations by the few slightly better off to the one starving;
> The last thing I want with no income is to pay someone to cut my lawn or repaint my shed




You are right Frog ….. I was initially thinking …. Elderly and wealthy people will still need their lawns cut …. but the elderly will have a lot of "out of work" neighbours probably happy to cut their lawn for a cup of tea and an iced vo-vo.  Given the "wealthy" are a small % minority group, there will not be enough lawns to go round.

Two of my immediate neighbours (1 retired, 1 elderly) employ a Lawnie … I will be interested to see whether they continue.


----------



## Humid (24 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I have a few friends (grey nomads) who start packing their vans around now and plan to migrate north from Perth late April. I have yet to ask, but wonder if any will travel now.
> They (being city folk) might not be welcome in the towns they pass through, I have visions of blockades set up by the locals (Have I been watching too many movies?).
> If our towns in the country are relatively clean maybe a lockout isn't such a bad idea. While they would like our $ they wont want our bugs.
> Road Trains excepted.




Remind them when they get crook not to come to my hospital in the city


----------



## jbocker (24 March 2020)

barney said:


> The fast test was developed by China in response to the outbreak.
> 
> Initially 500,000 kits to be purchased/imported … more if we need them!



I would sincerely hope China is donating them.


----------



## jbocker (24 March 2020)

Humid said:


> Remind them when they get crook not to come to my hospital in the city



Been in touch with two groups, they are staying put. Hopefully none of us need to be in your hospital, I assume you are working there @Humid and NOT a patient!


----------



## Humid (24 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Been in touch with two groups, they are staying put. Hopefully none of us need to be in your hospital, I assume you are working there @Humid and NOT a patient!




I think you misunderstood 
I’ve worked fifo for years and often been the brunt of locals and their towns
I usually tell them then don’t come to my town when their crook
Winds them up


----------



## jbocker (24 March 2020)

Sorry folks but I must pose VERY ugly questions I truly hope we don't get this situation.
OK Caronavirus hospitalisations gets to a much greater serious level in Australia and medical staff have to decide who gets the treatment.
1. One person is 85 the other is 65. The elder person is privately covered the younger is not. Who gets the equipment if both have a relatively healthy track record all their life?
2.  One person is 85 the other is 65. Both have the same health cover. Elder has a good health track record the younger not quite so good.  Who gets the treatment. Vice Versa.?
*PLEASE do not respond answer these questions BUT TAKE THE TIME TO THINK what is it YOU can do from this minute on, to help not get to this situation.*

If we don't some poor people may will need to make these decisions and could be YOUR spouse partner sibling grandparent child.

Apologies if this has already had discussion but keep asking that question of people in your family and friends.


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I would sincerely hope China is donating them.



I prefer we test them first for effectiveness and also do not in themselves contain another virus.


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

"According to official statistics, China has defeated the coronavirus. Over the last five days, health authorities have reported only one new locally transmitted case of Covid-19 – a patient in Guangdong province infected by someone travelling from abroad. In Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak and the country’s worst-hit area, officials on Monday reported a fifth day without new cases"

THIS DOES NOT PASS THE PUB TEST.

And is extremely worrying in itself.


----------



## IFocus (24 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Sorry folks but I must pose VERY ugly questions I truly hope we don't get this situation.
> OK Caronavirus hospitalisations gets to a much greater serious level in Australia and medical staff have to decide who gets the treatment.
> 1. One person is 85 the other is 65. The elder person is privately covered the younger is not. Who gets the equipment if both have a relatively healthy track record all their life?
> 2.  One person is 85 the other is 65. Both have the same health cover. Elder has a good health track record the younger not quite so good.  Who gets the treatment. Vice Versa.?
> ...






I think actually its time to have the conversation to be honest and there will be opinions at each end of the spectrum.

I guess in the end medical staff will make that decision or there simply wont be another bed in the ICU for the next patient regardless of age.

I note there has been some building anger towards boomers and suspect perhaps there isn't as much widespread sympathy or empathy among younger Australians (35 to 45 age group?)

Note this essential poll results

*Guardian Essential poll: one-third say there has been an overreaction to coronavirus*
The latest survey of 1,034 respondents suggests men, and voters aged under 34, are more likely to think there has been an overreaction than voters over 55, and women.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...there-has-been-an-overreaction-to-coronavirus


----------



## basilio (24 March 2020)

This scares the living xhit out me.  The Government announces a total lockdown and effectively throwing hundreds of thousands of people out of work. They offer an immediate support package through Centrelink.

*And somehow the Minister responsible can't add 2 and 2 and realise there will be a tidal wave of inquiries at Centrelink and that the systems have to be able to cope.* It also sheds light on his seeming lack of awareness of the overall limits on Centrelink website and, I have to say, his personal staff who somehow didn't make it clear what was going to happen on Monday morning.

I just can't believe the incompetence . I suppose the upside is his honesty in acknowedging his incompetence.

*Government urging people to go home as lines form around Centrelink offices, minister Stuart Robert admits not anticipating demand*
*Government Services Minister Stuart Robert conceded he had failed to appreciate the scale of demand that would be placed on Centrelink's website.*

*"My bad, not realising the sheer scale of the decision on Sunday night by the national leaders," he said.*
"That literally saw hundreds and hundreds of thousands, maybe a million people, unemployed overnight."
People are lining up outside Centrelink seeking to access expanded welfare payments, including a $550 fortnightly coronavirus supplement payment.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...rt-robert-not-anticipate-coronavirus/12080612


----------



## IFocus (24 March 2020)

As I posted before this is the critical cut off for ICU beds  April 8th only 15 days away

New infection rate numbers are still vertical NZ has gone to total lock down Australia cannot to to far away

https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak


----------



## sptrawler (24 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> As I posted before this is the critical cut off for ICU beds  April 8th only 15 days away
> 
> New infection rate numbers are still vertical NZ has gone to total lock down Australia cannot to to far away
> 
> https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak



I think you are spot on, one the exponential curve in NSW is really accelerating and two school holidays are close.
Must go to Aldi and get some long life skim milk.


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

So when you make changes to any system, you get all involved to discuss the possible weakpoint in the current system that need to be fixed before introducing changes.

Ie Minister to IT Head, we are about to see a x100 increase in visitors to the site, have you done any baseload testing to insure that are servers can handle it.
IT Head, yes we have, we can have a spike of x10 over that we will need to make some drastic changes in both server configs and hardware.
Minister x10 is good enough


----------



## wayneL (24 March 2020)

Economic implications... security is the boom business as far as I see it.

Just went into the bottlo in one the particularly quiet outer Western Brisbane suburbs to grab some beers for later on. Standing at the door was one of the most mountainous men I've seen for ages as a security guard.

It's a sight that I have seen quite a few times now in the last few days.

On another level that is absolutely alarming because, dammit, this thing has only just started.


----------



## qldfrog (24 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think you are spot on, one the exponential curve in NSW is really accelerating and two school holidays are close.
> Must go to Aldi and get some long life skim milk.



good luck, is probably gone..was gone last week first the full cream then light then skim...
in the space of 3 weeks here in qld


----------



## CBerg (24 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> This chart covering Australia's unemployment rate for the whole of last century illustrates a few key points:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'm not sure if you can count post WW2 as the normal. Almost complete destruction of much of Europe & lots of other destruction elsewhere. Not just markets gone belly up but whole towns/regions even countries gone for all intents and purposes. That takes up a lot of time & resources to rebuild from which I think explains most of that time period in terms of unemployment.

I heard a theory and at a glance it makes sense at a high level BUT I haven't thought about it much either. It's about how capital is so cheap compared to labour. If they want to make labour cheaper than capital they need to raise interest rates, significantly. It does not bode well if that caught on because Australia as a whole is highly leveraged but there could be interesting accounting tricks you could play that even the scales a bit: tax interest, make employee expenses on the P&L count for double. Interesting thought experiment anyway.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 March 2020)

we're on Stage 1 of progressive social distancing, which will trend into isolation/ lockdowns

The authorities are working on the details of Stage 2

UK is at 4.


----------



## jbocker (24 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> I note there has been some building anger towards boomers and suspect perhaps there isn't as much widespread sympathy or empathy among younger Australians (35 to 45 age group?)



Might be if it is there mum or dad, who hasn't done their will yet.


----------



## basilio (24 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So when you make changes to any system, you get all involved to discuss the possible weakpoint in the current system that need to be fixed before introducing changes.
> 
> Ie Minister to IT Head, we are about to see a x100 increase in visitors to the site, have you done any baseload testing to insure that are servers can handle it.
> IT Head, yes we have, we can have a spike of x10 over that we will need to make some drastic changes in both server configs and hardware.
> Minister x10 is good enough




In theory yes. In this case in practice *NO.   There was no  indication from the Ministers statement that any upgrades of any sort had been made to the My Gov system to handle the anticipated extra load.
*
Apparently it has a limit of 55,000 clients at any one stage before it falls over.


----------



## qldfrog (24 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> I think actually its time to have the conversation to be honest and there will be opinions at each end of the spectrum.
> 
> I guess in the end medical staff will make that decision or there simply wont be another bed in the ICU for the next patient regardless of age.
> 
> ...



actually in both italy and France where they are having to do the decision, an ethic medical committee has made a recommendation, which I am sure the nedics will appreciate as it remove some of the pressure on their mind conscience;
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...ts-un-tri-pourrait-se-faire_6033829_3232.html
but the media do not reveal the points used for the triage
From memory if you are very old or are seniler, have cancer or other grave illness, good luck; the aim becomes to only treat people who have a reasonable chance of making it...which means condemning to death some who had some chances..Not easy

an interesting article here..please note there is no economic side there: rich poor private insurance or not
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...e-coronavirus-strains-hospitals/#.XnllVXJS-Uk


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

Why are we not seeing any reporting on the origin of this virus?

With all the resources and technology in the world, the focus is on shut down, so why do we not know yet where is came from - which animal.


----------



## basilio (24 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> From memory if you are very old or are seniler, have cancer or other grave illness, good luck; the aim becomes to only treat people who have a reasonable chance of making it...which means condemning to death some who had some chances..Not easy




And that is or should be the case with all medical treatment. Good medicine doesn't attempt to _"take heroic efforts to save life at all costs."  _

Again having said that my brother who was a doctor told me of relatives of people in nursing homes *demanding*  intervention for their demented or senile parents.  Just no respect for allowing life to end naturally.


----------



## basilio (24 March 2020)

Cross party co-operation in dealing with the COVID19 crisis. Excellent..

 Print  Email  Facebook  Twitter  More
*Coronavirus pandemic unites Labor and Coalition to give Government $40 billion fund 'to spend as required'*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-24/coronavirus-billions-given-to-government-stimulus/12084546


----------



## MrChow (24 March 2020)

Italy cases and deaths down 2 days in a row.

Would fit the logic of a 14 day shutdown if they decreased towards the end of that period.

Huge stimulus and Trump not wanting elongated shut downs.

Speculative call XAO 5000 tomorrow (+10% in 2 days)


----------



## IFocus (24 March 2020)

SP, Aldi, Anstruther yesterday busy but lot of stock they also had security and yeah crime will be a big problem now and  longer term


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> Italy cases and deaths down 2 days in a row.
> 
> Would fit the logic of a 14 day shutdown if they decreased towards the end of that period.



Viruses knock out the weak first, those over 70 years of age.

2 Days means nothing, maybe 2 weeks is a better sample, but the question arises, if and when they remove restrictions can this flare up again.

All it takes is one person and here we go again.

As for you 10% rise on the ASX, love your enthusiasm, with unemployment to spike hard in the next 10 days, the ASX will be under what it is today. Bet you and 10 of your mates a beer at the local pub.


----------



## basilio (24 March 2020)

Minister Stuart Robert went onto  Alan Jones  program this morning to explain the collapse of the My Gov website on Monday.
Apparently he dug himself half way to China.

* Stuart Robert’s incompetence on MyGov should accelerate his own social isolation *
Katharine Murphy
From fanning national anxiety with claims of a cyber-attack on MyGov, to a lack of empathy for the jobless, the government services minister has no grasp of the gravity of our times

...._Robert told “Alan” he’d prepared over the weekend for traffic on the site to increase from 6,000 to 55,000 visits. “I didn’t think I’d have to prepare for 100,000 concurrent users,” Robert said.

“My bad for not realising the sheer scale of the decision on Sunday night by the national leaders that literally saw hundreds and hundreds of thousands, maybe a million people, unemployed overnight.”

My bad? My bad? Really? That’s all you’ve got?

My bad suggests this minister has no grasp of the gravity of the current circumstances. He seems to have little grasp of how the systems he administers actually work. The facts he recounted to Jones are strongly suggestive of arms of government not talking to other arms of government. How do you impose a lockdown on Sunday night that puts (as Robert acknowledged) a million people out of work and then estimate only 50-odd thousand will flood MyGov on Monday morning? How do you not comprehend that many Australian workers, particularly in casual gigs, are living hand-to-mouth and need help now, not in a month?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ov-should-accelerate-his-own-social-isolation_


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

"_Robert told “Alan” he’d prepared over the weekend for traffic on the site to increase from 6,000 to 55,000 visits. “I didn’t think I’d have to prepare for 100,000 concurrent users,” Robert said."

Big difference, between visits over a 24 hour period and 100,000 concurrent users within say 3 minutes.

Dumbarse pollies. I will bet 100% that someone warned him_


----------



## barney (24 March 2020)

basilio said:


> *Government urging people to go home as lines form around Centrelink offices,*




I watched that and cringed ….. All the people standing shoulder to shoulder I mean …. 

It took me 5 seconds to suggest to my wife: Instead of letting them all stand there for hours in a perfect "transmission" scenario

Why didn't they give everyone a ticket in order, take their phone numbers, and call them back to say their appointment would be within the next 1/2 hr or whatever, when it was their turn. 

There would have been no queues and everyone would have been seen in turn. 

Those that stood there for 5 hours and still didn't get in would have been ready to explode especially when told come back tomorrow and 'try again'.


----------



## Junior (24 March 2020)

They are making Newstart far easier to claim, and doubling the payment.  Plus the one-off payments of $750.  Plus potentially 1,000,000 Australians losing their jobs overnight.  AND they are going to rely on MyGov and the ATO to administer Early Access from Super payments..... the system is going to completely collapse.


----------



## basilio (24 March 2020)

Junior said:


> They are making Newstart far easier to claim, and doubling the payment.  Plus the one-off payments of $750.  Plus potentially 1,000,000 Australians losing their jobs overnight.  AND they are going to rely on MyGov and the ATO to administer Early Access from Super payments..... the system is going to completely collapse.




You mean it was operating like a well oiled machine before ? No glitches ? No infuriating failures ?

Absolutely right.  Frankly I don't think the government (as distinct from permanent Centerlink  staff) gave  a rats rectum about the challenges, loops, traps and pitfalls they put in the way of people attempting to claim Newstarve. Honestly I think they were just tools to make it more difficult for people to get on social security. 

They now have to reverse years of deliberate neglect in a week to ensure a million people out of work don't get panicked or piszed off.

More importantly they have to achieve this so their friends in the banks and housing markets can get their house payments and rent paid on time.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 March 2020)

Junior said:


> the system is going to completely collapse



What we are seeing there is the consequence of having parliament filled with people who haven't a clue about anything technical be it IT, medicine, engineering or anything else and who generally hold people who do know about such things in fairly low regard.

If anyone tried to warn the Minister and suggest doing it a different way, they'd likely find themselves becoming one of the people trying to access the system rather than the one running it.


----------



## MrChow (24 March 2020)

The government's allowing people to withdraw $20k from super.

So if you put $500 back each year (which is matched by them) for 40 years you end up with an extra 20k.

If you stop realising gains on investments to pass centrelink income test you can get $28k for a year.

These seem like very generous levers if someone's financially independent already.


----------



## Humid (24 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> What we are seeing there is the consequence of having parliament filled with people who haven't a clue about anything technical be it IT, medicine, engineering or anything else and who generally hold people who do know about such things in fairly low regard.
> 
> If anyone tried to warn the Minister and suggest doing it a different way, they'd likely find themselves becoming one of the people trying to access the system rather than the one running it.



Dickheads with law degrees


----------



## qldfrog (24 March 2020)

honestly anything gov and IT is a disaster, my gov, mygovid, superchecking system as an employer, even filling your BAS on line has a 20% of finding a site down or not on...
....filling a tax return then trying to modify an ATO input error..6 months and counting, inc giving up and having an accountant involved for what should be a 1s correction..And now these guys are going to work from home..... and manage  many many more requests


----------



## wayneL (24 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> honestly anything gov and IT is a disaster, my gov, mygovid, superchecking system as an employer, even filling your BAS on line has a 20% of finding a site down or not on...
> ....filling a tax return then trying to modify an ATO input error..6 months and counting, inc giving up and having an accountant involved for what should be a 1s correction..And now these guys are going to work from home..... and manage  many many more requests




Gov IT is one of the few triggers that is guaranteed to send me onto a bender. Who the hell to they hire for these projects?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 March 2020)

Getting back to the reality. The Govt will move to Stage 2 tonight. Lockdown looms


----------



## qldfrog (24 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> honestly anything gov and IT is a disaster, my gov, mygovid, superchecking system as an employer, even filling your BAS on line has a 20% of finding a site down or not on...
> ....filling a tax return then trying to modify an ATO input error..6 months and counting, inc giving up and having an accountant involved for what should be a 1s correction..And now these guys are going to work from home..... and manage  many many more requests



I spoke too soon, and may have to apologize to the ATO, received tonight my missing tax reimbursement $903 due to an input error from their part..6 months and a few days it took, 4 phone calls (each a real adventure in delays drama,etc) and a physical visit (which did not really help either) around 12h of my time..
I also received an email tonight telling me to go to mygov for some new communication presumably a new *notice of assessment* 
Guess what:


I am NOT joking and I am not even trying to access Centerlink yet
With this crisis, the whole infrastructure is collapsing, imagine when workers will be sick and gone


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

F--k me, you people are so weak, you are only wondered about what you can get, ******* selfish. 
What the govnuts can give to you, what happened to men being men, leaders being leaders.
You all deserve the virus, the weak and pathetic, self serving, only out for themselves.
No strength, no conviction, pathetic, we deserve the virus. clean out the weak.


----------



## Humid (24 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Viruses knock out the weak first, those over 70 years of age.
> 
> 2 Days means nothing, maybe 2 weeks is a better sample, but the question arises, if and when they remove restrictions can this flare up again.
> 
> ...




Pubs closed Satan


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

F---k you, nothing to do with pubs, grow some balls and have a statement
You are apathetic, just another one who is accepts the status quo until you have to fight for survival


----------



## Tumbarumba (24 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F--k me, you people are so weak, you are only wondered about what you can get, ******* selfish.
> What the govnuts can give to you, what happened to men being men, leaders being leaders.
> You all deserve the virus, the weak and pathetic, self serving, only out for themselves.
> 
> No strength, no conviction, pathetic, we deserve the virus. clean out the weak.




satanoperca,
Please sir is it ok for me to like your post?
Thankyou


----------



## matty77 (24 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F--k me, you people are so weak, you are only wondered about what you can get, ******* selfish.
> What the govnuts can give to you, what happened to men being men, leaders being leaders.
> You all deserve the virus, the weak and pathetic, self serving, only out for themselves.
> No strength, no conviction, pathetic, we deserve the virus. clean out the weak.




men being men. Someone loses their job and literally cant feed their family, but if they just "man up" everything will be OK? What the hell is wrong with you. I have absolutely no doubt you are one of those oxygen thieves who bought all the toilet paper for yourself and would refuse to let anyone have any even if you had half the stash in the world.

People like you are what is wrong with the world today, no compassion, selfish. I pity you.


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

matty77 said:


> men being men. Someone loses their job and literally cant feed their family, but if they just "man up" everything will be OK? What the hell is wrong with you. I have absolutely no doubt you are one of those oxygen thieves who bought all the toilet paper for yourself and would refuse to let anyone have any even if you had half the stash in the world.
> 
> People like you are what is wrong with the world today, no compassion, selfish. I pity you.




This is exactly the response I expect from a pathetic man. 

Who the hell are you to make assumptions about me and my life, you are another piss ant. 

Accusing me of being an oxygen thieve, just another pathetic response, I hope you do not consider yourself a man or actually a person.

So based on your stupid statements, I present to you, via private mail my phone number to discuss your comments in a rational way, no doubt, you will not call. Why, because you are are another key board warrior, which I am not.


----------



## Joe Blow (24 March 2020)

Could everyone please calm down. I realise most people are pretty tense at the moment with everything that is going on right now, but there is no need to start tearing strips off each other.

Let's get this thread back on topic please.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Getting back to the reality. The Govt will move to Stage 2 tonight. Lockdown looms



I wuz wrong. Too much incremental waffle and qualifying of what should happen.


----------



## satanoperca (24 March 2020)

Sorry Joe, but this thread is on tack, economics is about people/govnuts being leaders, if you cannot handle the hot kitchen, get out. 

These are not normal times, we get to see those with virtue and conviction, this is a site based on shares, everything in discussion effects share price, abet in a small way it,  it all effects us.


----------



## Joe Blow (24 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Sorry Joe, but this thread is on tack, economics is about people/govnuts being leaders, if you cannot handle the hot kitchen, get out.
> 
> These are not normal times, we get to see those with virtue and conviction, this is a site based on shares, everything in discussion effects share price, abet in a small way it,  it all effects us.




Fair enough. I'm all for everyone here discussing the economic impact of COVID-19 on the Australian and global economy.

I'm just asking that it be done without things turning personal. No useful or constructive debate/discussion can be had if it does.


----------



## MrChow (24 March 2020)

Australians are mostly worried about money and slightly more worried about toilet paper and dealing with dickheads than dying.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> What the govnuts can give to you, what happened to men being men, leaders being leaders.




What, exactly, do you propose that anyone ought to have done or be doing that they aren't already?

The average citizen can't exactly stop people getting off ships and so on so apart from following all the advice to avoid getting infected, self-isolating to avoid spreading it if they do get it, and looking after things like finances and so on there's not a huge amount more the average person can really do. It's not like a flood where we can all help fill the sandbags and so on.


----------



## Wyatt (24 March 2020)

On a lighter note and not intending to be partisan, I thought Scomos briefing tonight was excellent, very candid and well delivered on not only information but on an emotional level. 
After watching part of the US head's speech earlier. I couldn't help but shake my head in disbelief about the message delivered. Maybe I missed the important bits like the support packages for the masses. She'll be right mate, we'll be good to go after a short breather cause that's what we do. 
Problem may be that if the lower socio economic lot over there bear the brunt, who's gunna do all the work for sfa?
Of course if the magic malaria and aids drugs work, which seemed to be a major factor in the reasoning, then I'm just an ignorant fool. Again.

Reckon we'll be weeks in front of them, re population recovery wise. I doubt markets will care about that.
Markets seem itching for a run up.

As has been demonstrated by the Chinese, transmission of this curse can be quickly reduced/stopped if everyone pulls the head in and does the right thing. 

The cruise ship unload in Sydney last Thursday was an epic screw up, what were they thinking?

Reckon the 1 million Aussies quoted as loosing their jobs this week could be understated as 3 out of 4 of mine lost their jobs. 
Stay safe and keep your chins up.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 March 2020)

Joe Blow said:


> I'm all for everyone here discussing the economic impact of COVID-19 on the Australian and global economy.
> 
> I'm just asking that it be done without things turning personal.





Agreed definitely.

As a general comment aimed broadly to everyone, I think we must all bear in mind that a lot of people will be finding this extremely stressful for a range of reasons from financial to being stranded on the wrong side of a border to being at risk of death. It's a difficult time for just about everyone in some way.

ASF is one of, perhaps the, most civilised places online so let's all keep it that way. Anger won't help any of us out of this mess.


----------



## qldfrog (24 March 2020)

So denial fear and now anger stage is reached even before the real death toll starts


----------



## Joe Blow (24 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general comment aimed broadly to everyone, I think we must all bear in mind that a lot of people will be finding this extremely stressful for a range of reasons from financial to being stranded on the wrong side of a border to being at risk of death. It's a difficult time for just about everyone in some way.




This is exactly why I'm not interested in playing the blame game. I know that most people are anxious, stressed out, and worried about their own future and that of their loved ones. We don't just have a virus to be concerned about, we have a stock market that has fallen ~30% in the last few weeks, people are losing their jobs, and a good proportion of us are under increasing financial pressure.

Simply put, things are really bad and may very well get worse. But lashing out at each other won't solve anything. It will just increase the amount of unpleasantness we all have to deal with.



Smurf1976 said:


> ASF is one of, perhaps the, most civilised places online so let's all keep it that way. Anger won't help any of us out of this mess.




We don't have any control over the spread of COVID-19 (apart from isolating ourselves and our families   from those that might have it), nor do we have any control over the economic peril that is facing us, but we do have control over how we treat others and conduct ourselves in public spaces, including ASF.

Let's all do our best to maintain a respectful and civil atmosphere here. This is one place we can all come at any time of day or night, even in the midst of all this strife, and find some fellowship and a good friendly chat. Let's not spoil that.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 March 2020)

Thinking about all this, another aspect I wonder about is the impact on society more broadly and what that means?

I make that comment prompted by what a friend said to me on the phone a short time ago. In short we concluded that there's going to be plenty of children who for practical purposes have been abruptly shoved into the adult world in the past few days. All of a sudden the parents don't have jobs, everything's shut or cancelled, there's widespread fear and so on. It's an incredibly abrupt change.

This is now far worse than the GFC or any recession in living memory in terms of impact on most individuals and that's without mentioning the medical side.


----------



## jbocker (25 March 2020)

Just throwing a few thoughts out of my mind wrt implications post coronavirus, ok I am passing time while in a pseudo lock down. Or should that be throwing a few thoughts _while _out of my mind...

The recovery of the market will be a long slow one. Many boomers will have very little resource to re-engage the market and will re-evaluate what is really important, be happy to settle back to a less $ dependent lifestyle and learn to appreciate what health and 'simple living' pleasures can give. Resigned to contentment!
I don't know what damage to the big funds are likely to end up being. The market is for the next generations who have yet to figure out the market and there would be caution for many and some ballsy investment made by others. It is a given, History will sort of repeat itself on different range of opportunities.
The longer the virus has control the more likely the following.
I would think the whole landscape will change significantly. Countries will 'adjust' their accepted levels of income so that they can provide their own resources, manufacturing and services. People will pay the price that is required to have this, or at least Govts will. Govt will take back control of what have been psuedo govt/privatised entities. A larger public service, with greater help for fledgling business. Big companies will take back some of what was shifted offshore and employ the locals again, and the almighty shareholder will look more favourably to this rather than their flukey share price and dividends. More will be done from home wrt education and work. We will prepare better for next biological onslaught (understanding that the onslaught could likely be worse). Global climate will become a far greater accepted focus.  Environmental sciences and farming will have greater better considered interfaces. Innovation will cause new industries to start up business we haven't thought of yet. Cellular meat will be grown on robots.
Gotta mention House prices; will drift downwards and settle down as govt erode a lot of its investment 'perks' over time.

13 days to go.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

With manufacturing etc I think it's pretty much a given.

Consider the UK or USA where all sorts of companies have stopped making whatever they normally make and are now making things needed for the virus war. Even Rolls Royce are into it according to media reports.

If you've got big factories and workshops then it's a given that as part of that you've got people who are good at problem solving and adapting things to work in a practical sense. Nobody's going to complain that the RR built ventilators are the wrong colour, right?

Australia's risks in that regard have been massively laid bare for all to see, indeed the country's lack of manufacturing capability is one factor that will drag the whole thing out at huge economic cost.

On the climate change issue though - I reckon it'll be fixed but it'll be fixed quietly. On with the job, it will be addressed, but the term won't be used in politics or the media much at all. It'll just be one of those unsaid assumption sort of things that gets done. Bit like nobody argues whether we should save human lives, we just silently embed that into everything else but it's not a subject of debate itself.

Just my thoughts, I could be wrong etc.


----------



## ducati916 (25 March 2020)

The post virus economy will likely be different in that companies will:

(a) re-examine the 'just-in-time' supply chain;
(b) hold greater inventory;
(c) office based work, what can be done from home (reduce office rental costs);
(d) re. employment, more contract/casual employees;
(e) reduce share buy backs, increase liquid assets held on Balance Sheet;
(f) greater use of credit revolvers;
(g) increased contractual language re. acts of god etc.;
(h) revised insurance requirements;
(i) tighter control over collection of receivables;
(j) larger companies will look to extend Accounts Payable time
(k) moving supply/manufacture back onshore, which will impact margins;
(l) China will lose significant overseas manufacturing supply.

Probably loads more.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog (25 March 2020)

Just not so sure about global warming blamed on co2 story
This crisis will see human emissions reduced yet whatever global warming is detected continue and co2 increasing with no human cause
If there is one thing good out of this crisis,
it will prove the causality of co2 increasing due to global warming and not the opposite..
 we can change again models etc, but at least our government will know, and so will anyone willing to look


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

Joe Blow said:


> *This is exactly why I'm not interested in playing the blame game*.




Plus 10. Thanks Joe .
I have been dismayed with the efforts to paint the Chinese or the US or some other dark force as  deliberate architects of the CORVID 19 crisis. Our concerns right now are  dealing with it the most constructive way possible. That has to be a largely co-operative process.

On top of that we have to socially, economically and personally survive what is  going to be the biggest collective challenge most of us have ever faced.  (Can't be many WW veterans left can there ? ) Creating shadowy enemies we can slag off at is, in my mind, a  corrosive addition to the mix.  Well worth leaving out IMV.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 March 2020)

Once we get rid of this virus (if we do) I wonder what the chances are of something similar coming along and we'll have to do it all again.

This means a forensic effort to find the source and a public calling out of of responsibilties to eliminate conditions for such viruses arising, even if it causes offense to some.


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Just not so sure about global warming blamed on co2 story
> This crisis will see human emissions reduced yet whatever global warming is detected continue and co2 increasing with no human cause
> If there is one thing good out of this crisis,




Q Frog please re think or understand.
*Your assertion  is just completely and utterly wrong.*
Yes current direct human emissions will be drastically reduced.
However global warming is the  ongoing consequences of all the excess Greenhouse gases we have pumped into the atmosphere.
The full effect of these continues to rise and compound. For example we are now seeing huge amounts of methane release from the Arctic as the ground warms

Whats is more likely, unfortunately , is that global warming will increase as result of the current collapse in industrial activity.  
One of the offsets to global warming from our use of fossils fuels has been the smoke produced by cars, factories.  Much of this is sulpher dioxide  SO2. This  part of the pollution (not the invisible CO2)   directly reduces warming temporarily. Basically dims the sun. 

Climate scientists have always noted that if/when we reduce industrial pollution the immediate short term result will be this increase in warming.

Sad isn't it ? We still have to deal with an even bigger more intractable problem.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/sci...ing-now-revealed-in-different-lights-1.632074


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> The post virus economy will likely be different in that companies will:
> 
> (a) re-examine the 'just-in-time' supply chain;
> (b) hold greater inventory;
> ...



 probity will last only for a while. Sadly. Until the complacency returns.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 March 2020)

Stay at home if possible. 

Keep distance from others if out.

gg


----------



## againsthegrain (25 March 2020)

wayneL said:


> Gov IT is one of the few triggers that is guaranteed to send me onto a bender. Who the hell to they hire for these projects?




Ahh you outsource the cheapest o


Garpal Gumnut said:


> Stay at home if possible.
> 
> Keep distance from others if out.
> 
> gg




After this is passed, we all have to do our bit to make Australia strong.  No more "selling out" and giving in to Chinese $.  We need to keep things at home as much as possible.

This situation shows us how easily we can be crippled and so dependant on a foreign non ally power. 

Yes we will all take a hit and scale back the easy sugar money but it doesn't mean we will struggle. 

This means instead of reselling cheap dodgy product manufactured in a Chinese factory with 20% failure rate at 90% profit we need to support local manufactures and buy a superior product with 2% failure rate at 30% profit. 

Its a mentality we have to take on,  if every Aussie follows this pattern (ofcourse with products and supplies we are able to make locally) we will prosper and grow in the long term. 

For too long we have been fattening up China who now are in a position to buy out half the world 'if they are permitted to' 

Lets at least make one positive from this tragedy and go back to being more self sufficient. 

p.s the education sector really needs to change BIG CHANGES no more easy money from printing degrees to Chinese students,   educate property and educate locally


----------



## MrChow (25 March 2020)

XAO 5040.

+10% achieved yesterday and today.

I'll take my beers at home though!


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I have been dismayed with the efforts to paint the Chinese or the US or some other dark force as deliberate architects of the CORVID 19 crisis. Our concerns right now are dealing with it the most constructive way possible. That has to be a largely co-operative process.



Agreed although I'll note a difference between blame / hate versus looking at the implications it has for different countries and economies etc.


----------



## MrChow (25 March 2020)

Muslims put in a good shift of 20 years dealing with those types of people.

Asians are happy to give them a year or two off.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Climate scientists have always noted that if/when we reduce industrial pollution the immediate short term result will be this increase in warming.
> 
> Sad isn't it ? We still have to deal with an even bigger more intractable problem.
> 
> https://www.irishtimes.com/news/sci...ing-now-revealed-in-different-lights-1.632074



How believable is the "problem" when we can suddenly find $3trillion for a nasty flu, that so far hasn't done much (apart from economically). But not a great deal on CC that will allegedly kill more and cause greater economic destruction?

Surely now would be the point you would start transitioning while the money is flowing?


----------



## qldfrog (25 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed although I'll note a difference between blame / hate versus looking at the implications it has for different countries and economies etc.



Please note that while fully convinced it is man made, i do not in the slightest believe this was intentional and do not blame China for that, and even less Chinese people..but as pointed already the denial will move to anger and become ugly.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Please note that while fully convinced it is man made, i do not in the slightest believe this was intentional and do not blame China for that, and even less Chinese people..but as pointed already the denial will move to anger and become ugly.



I put blame squarely on the Chinese that ate or had a supporting role in those wet markets. They keep eating stuff with a high risk of zoonotic transmission. Turn a blind eye, then you can suffer the blame. 
This is what, the third time or more?
Get your sht in order China. 

And there's a billion of you. And you are one of the most powerful nations on earth. People need to stop feigning calls of  "racism" to those in power to play down an obvious problem. They have basically destroyed the economic world.

However,  no Chinese should ever be attacked on a personal level whatsoever. There is a massive difference between the singular and a nation that needs to reassess it's practices.


----------



## qldfrog (25 March 2020)

Agree overall but by focusing on these wet markets we do not attack the actual cause this time and the people playing with what could be mankind death in these labs crisping happily variole and who knows what either for research or even military purpose


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I put blame squarely on the Chinese that ate or had a supporting role in those wet markets. They keep eating stuff with a high risk of zoonotic transmission. Turn a blind eye, then you can suffer the blame.
> This is what, the third time or more?
> Get your sht in order China.
> 
> ...




I reckon China will definitely reassess it's practices as they get over this crisis.  On a purely pragmatic basis they are living through the costs and will want to take whatever action required to minimise it happening again.

But I don't think we need to use this forum to kick "Chinese ass" .  No matter how you might try to spin it it comes out as an attack on all Chinese. 
_________________________

In terms of creating economic disasters one could far more  realistically note how Donald Trump and much of the broader  US economic system is currently walking over a cliff and taking the country and the world with them.


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Agree overall but by focusing on these wet markets we do not attack the actual cause this time and the people playing with what could be mankind death in these labs crisping happily variole and who knows what either for research or even military purpose



QFrog could you please let up on this continual scare mongering about random labs brewing killer viruses. It just isn't useful. 

Please


----------



## Sdajii (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I put blame squarely on the Chinese that ate or had a supporting role in those wet markets. They keep eating stuff with a high risk of zoonotic transmission. Turn a blind eye, then you can suffer the blame.
> This is what, the third time or more?
> Get your sht in order China.
> 
> ...




It's a long time since the early story about this coming from the wet market was completely debunked. The first patients identified were long before the virus ever got to the wet market. It started near the laboratory (however you want to think it got there), it spread between multiple people, *then* one of those people went to the crowded market and it spread between more people there.

People keep saying the Chinese are to blame for eating strange things. This virus did start in China, China did silence people trying to raise the alarm and did use the situation to its economic advantage and is guilty as sin in many respects even if you don't want to consider the actual origins of the virus, but looking at the origins of the virus, it makes no sense to get angry at people for dietary choices.

Most diseases outbreaks come from domestic animals, not wildlife. Think about the outbreaks we have experienced. Swine flu came from pigs, mad cow disease came from cows, MERS came from domestic camels, bird flu came from domestic poultry... yet in this case when despite all the incredible advances in genetics technology giving us so much better technology than before, they ate for the very first time since the advent of any form of genetics technology unable or unwilling to to give us an origin story, and that despite this by far being the most intensely studied virus in the history of the planet. That and it started right next to a virus lab. In China. If they announced it was artificially modified it would cause utter chaos and immediate war. If they could give us any natural origin story you know they would. These dots alone are so close together they're already pretty much touching, and there are several more dots in between, join them if you can.

So, with most disease outbreaks coming from monocultured domestic animals and there being no genuine evidence that this one is from wildlife and the most plausible story not being eating wildlife, we should probably not currently focus blame on people eating wildlife.


----------



## jbocker (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Once we get rid of this virus (if we do) I wonder what the chances are of something similar coming along and we'll have to do it all again.
> 
> This means a forensic effort to find the source and a public calling out of of responsibilties to eliminate conditions for such viruses arising, even if it causes offense to some.



I think technology will be used to trace those likely to have been in virus contact. The stumbling block in Aussie culture (and not just us) we see it as 'invasive' technology, where the Chinese culture is more accepting. This technology was used to back track peoples movement and then contact potential carriers. I think this has expedited their whole turn around. 
We, are asking people to recall where they have been. Consequently it may take considerably more time to get on top. One thing for certain is a lot of work will be done in this area. It will have its drawbacks too.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I reckon China will definitely reassess it's practices as they get over this crisis.  On a purely pragmatic basis they are living through the costs and will want to take whatever action required to minimise it happening again.
> 
> But I don't think we need to use this forum to kick "Chinese ass" .  No matter how you might try to spin it it comes out as an attack on all Chinese.
> _________________________
> ...



It has happened three times. Stating facts that the Chinese government has repeatedly failed is hardly "kicking Chinese ass". This is the government keeping political prisoners, organ harvesting them, suppressing Uighur population not to mention the actual citizens of China.

If Donald Trump had caused the virus you would be on his ass in an instant. In fact you have pretty much deferred blame onto him. You repeatedly praise China and shtball the US.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's a long time since the early story about this coming from the wet market was completely debunked. The first patients identified were long before the virus ever got to the wet market. It started near the laboratory (however you want to think it got there), it spread between multiple people, *then* one of those people went to the crowded market and it spread between more people there.
> 
> People keep saying the Chinese are to blame for eating strange things. This virus did start in China, China did silence people trying to raise the alarm and did use the situation to its economic advantage and is guilty as sin in many respects even if you don't want to consider the actual origins of the virus, but looking at the origins of the virus, it makes no sense to get angry at people for dietary choices.
> 
> ...



It's possible that it has escaped. But for now, until further proof it's a case of zoonotic transmission. Either way it was a huge and dangerous failure.


----------



## rederob (25 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's a long time since the early story about this coming from the wet market was completely debunked.



Do you have sources for your claims?
Here are some facts for you to consider.


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> If Donald Trump had caused the virus you would be on his ass in an instant. In fact you have pretty much deferred blame onto him. You repeatedly praise China and shtball the US.




I'm kicking the sxhit out of Donald Trump for a litany of actions he has taken that have undermined the US capacity to respond to this crisis and are  currently threatening to undermine their capacity to bring it under control before it devastates their economy and takes rest of us with it. OK ?

I have absolutely no problem in wanting to see a new competent leader of the US ASAP. 

I don't have a great love of China. They have certainly done many things I think are very wrong. You brought up a few of them.  I just don't see good value in geeing up anti Chinese  sentiment over this issue. IMV it is probably far more useful to pick their brains and resources on how they have managed to largely control this outbreak.

And of course they do have elite  medical/research skills that are dealing with this problem. Well worth sharing I think.


----------



## jbocker (25 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> (j) larger companies will look to extend Accounts Payable time



I think they will reduce it significantly, I know told of two major (ASX20) companies have just gone from monthly to 1/2 monthly. There will probably soon be others.


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Do you have sources for your claims?
> Here are some facts for you to consider.




Good find.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I'm kicking the sxhit out of Donald Trump for a litany of actions he has taken that have undermined the US capacity to respond to this crisis and are  currently threatening to undermine their capacity to bring it under control before it devastates their economy and takes rest of us with it. OK ?
> 
> I have absolutely no problem in wanting to see a new competent leader of the US ASAP.
> 
> ...



China sea, Debt trap of foreign poor countries, silencing of citizens, murder of citizens, military bullying of other countries. At what point do you realize Trump isn't actually the threat in the room.

I wonder if the same was said of Germany or Russia during the ascendancy of Hitler or Stalin. "Shhh,  don't point out the obvious..... Because that's racism".


----------



## boofhead (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Once we get rid of this virus (if we do) I wonder what the chances are of something similar coming along and we'll have to do it all again.
> 
> This means a forensic effort to find the source and a public calling out of of responsibilties to eliminate conditions for such viruses arising, even if it causes offense to some.



It will happen again. Some places have changed how they handle outbreaks based on past experiences like Singapore and South Korea as they were afflicted by SARS (which is from the same family of viruses as corvid-19) - we don't have universal ways of vaccinating against infectious viruses of the future. Also harder as they are living entities evolving.


----------



## againsthegrain (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> China sea, Debt trap of foreign poor countries, silencing of citizens, murder of citizens, military bullying of other countries. At what point do you realize Trump isn't actually the threat in the room.
> 
> I wonder if the same was said of Germany or Russia during the ascendancy of Hitler or Stalin. "Shhh,  don't point out the obvious..... Because that's racism".




Glad somebody said it


----------



## jbocker (25 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> (k) moving supply/manufacture back onshore, which will impact margins;



Listening on radio yesterday about a seafood company in SW of WA is spending $1M _*to opening and running *_a cannery _*in (Australia) *_the SW of WA. Up till now the seafood is caught here and sent to Thailand where it is canned and then (I think) bought back here for sale. I assume exported again. It will cost more to can here but I think it is a trial.

..but its *THAT *folks is what I want hear. WE need to get some of these things back.


----------



## Sdajii (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> It's possible that it has escaped. But for now, until further proof it's a case of zoonotic transmission. Either way it was a huge and dangerous failure.




You can't say you know something until there's further proof. At most it remains an unknown. There is overwhelming evidence for it being artificial, enough to be certain, and enough circumstantial evidence to very strongly suggest it was deliberate (but circumstantial only, so not conclusive at this stage).


----------



## Sdajii (25 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Do you have sources for your claims?
> Here are some facts for you to consider.




Patient zero is confirmed to have had it before it was ever at  the wet market. There's a tonne of information on it.


----------



## rederob (25 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Patient zero is confirmed to have had it before it was ever at  the wet market. There's a tonne of information on it.



In other words you have no evidence.


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> China sea, Debt trap of foreign poor countries, silencing of citizens, murder of citizens, military bullying of other countries. At what point do you realize Trump isn't actually the threat in the room.




Would you like me to detail where Trump in particular and US historically has done exactly those actions ?

I repeat. 
IMV Donald Trumps current  leadership of US response to the COVID 19 crisis will not be successful.  His undermining of US preparedness for the situation was criminally negligent.  His usual lying xhit on the matter (blaming Obama for the cuts  Trump made)  stands as testimony to his unfitness for office.

On this particular thread we are discussing the economic implications of this crisis.  Trumps leadership of the US is critical to holding much of the worlds economic framework intact.  Good luck for that. !!


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

China is certainly taking a leading role in helping countries tackle the COVID 19 virus around he world .
How and why ?  What could happen when this is all over ? The headline offers one rationale but it's bigger than that.

*China's coronavirus aid seeking to shift narrative away from Beijing's cover-up, experts say*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...eks-to-shift-narrative-from-cover-up/12072296


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You can't say you know something until there's further proof. At most it remains an unknown. There is overwhelming evidence for it being artificial, enough to be certain, and enough circumstantial evidence to very strongly suggest it was deliberate (but circumstantial only, so not conclusive at this stage).



I can't argue the point if I can't back it up with something tangible. It's possible but I can't find enough data to support it just yet.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Would you like me to detail where Trump in particular and US historically has done exactly those actions ?
> 
> I repeat.
> IMV Donald Trumps current  leadership of US response to the COVID 19 crisis will not be successful.  His undermining of US preparedness for the situation was criminally negligent.  His usual lying xhit on the matter (blaming Obama for the cuts  Trump made)  stands as testimony to his unfitness for office.
> ...



Just quietly, Trump polls look like he is gone. And thank God. I don't think I could listen to you lot drone on about it for another term.


----------



## Sdajii (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I can't argue the point if I can't back it up with something tangible. It's possible but I can't find enough data to support it just yet.




So your assertion is either premature or incorrect. I can give a heap of reasoning for why it's an artificially modified virus, and I can't find anything other than 'surely China would never make a bioweapon or use transgenic viruses in research' (which you'd have to be beyond stupid to think) or 'surely human error is not a possibility' (does this need comment?) to refute it. Naturally to make an assertion either way you need evidence, but I literally see a heap of evidence for one side, now enough to be all but conclusive unless everything we're being told is a complete lie, and nothing at all other than 'yeah, we reckon it was from someone eating a bat... no evidence despite literally the most exhaustive search in the history of medical science at the time when the technology and ability to do so it greater than ever and it's literally the only time we've ever been unable to do it.

All the while we have the in-your-face-obvious motive not to tell the public it's artificial.

How close to dots need to be for people to be able to join them?


----------



## satanoperca (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> China is certainly taking a leading role in helping countries tackle the COVID 19 virus around he world .
> How and why ?  What could happen when this is all over ? The headline offers one rationale but it's bigger than that.
> 
> *China's coronavirus aid seeking to shift narrative away from Beijing's cover-up, experts say*
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...eks-to-shift-narrative-from-cover-up/12072296




Really, really, really.
"China is sending medical supplies and protective equipment such as face masks to dozens of countries and has given US$20 million ($35 million) to the World Health Organisation's COVID-19 appeal."

WOW, $20M, they are such good citizens aren't they. This is text book stuff.

So I smash you in the face, causing a blood nose and then give you a tissue to wipe away the blood. Gee I am a good guy.

Basilio, have you ever been to China, worked with the Chinese, understand their culture, their history and more importantly, their govnuts?


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I don't have a great love of China. They have certainly done many things I think are very wrong. You brought up a few of them. I just don't see good value in geeing up anti Chinese sentiment over this issue.



Strongly agreed.

That said, it is also very clear that Australia cannot sensibly remain so closely tied to either China, the US or any other single country. This crisis has made that reality very clear.

My expectation is that Australia's economy will ultimately emerge stronger because of this. We'll be forced to diversify both geographically and in terms of activity and neither is a bad thing. Our business model of simply selling what we've got to whoever walks in the door, which isn't far removed from prostitution as a concept, has reached its end point.

Short term the downside is mass unemployment, investors losing money and massive disruption.

Long term here's the springboard to put Australians back to work in actual higher value industries and to fix the problems we've been sweeping under the rug in the great race to the bottom. Problems like hospital funding, the natural environment including issues of pollution and emissions, house prices and so on are all ultimately products of the economic race to the bottom we've been engaged in.

If I was to try and fit our predicament to any previous historic example then once the virus is sorted I'd pick 1945. A war won and a focus on rebuilding our industries as the obvious path forward both practically and economically.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> but its *THAT *folks is what I want hear. WE need to get some of these things back.



There's a company proposing to build a new oil refinery in Darwin as another example. It looks to be a serious proposal not just a thought bubble. 

We'll see more such things I think yes.


----------



## Sdajii (25 March 2020)

rederob said:


> In other words you have no evidence.




There are countless sites and media outlets covering it, which makes it weird (telling?) that so many media outlets are still saying the old story which is completely debunked. The first known patient had the diseases on November 17. He didn't get it from the market. Many sources still spout the old information which was being said before China had acknowledged the existence of earlier cases and was trying to cover it up (with many early whistleblowers who were young and healthy 'dying from the coronavirus' or just... disappearing). The early story about the wetmarket origin had the beginning of the outbreak as being after the Chinese denial. The WHO wasn't told of the virus until much later but we now know (and no one disputes) that cases go back to at least as early as November 17.

This was the first one which came up on a web search, it's generally regarded as credible (I personally disagree entirely, it pushes pro China narratives which are clearly false, but even they acknowledge the first known case as November 17, which is before anyone says the disease was at the wet market.

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html

Feel free to read as many sites as you like, literally no one with a shred of credibility disputes cases existing back to November 17 and no one says the disease was in the market that early.


----------



## satanoperca (25 March 2020)

rederob said:


> In other words you have no evidence.




Where is yours Rederob? Found it on some disused TP?


----------



## rederob (25 March 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Feel free to read as many sites as you like, literally no one with a shred of credibility disputes cases existing back to November 17 and no one says the disease was in the market that early.



While this is true all you have done is layer your spin over the fact that patient tracking showed a common source for almost half those infected in early days, and that point has never been debunked as you seem think.  
Many Australians who have now tested positive have not been able to understand how or where they could have been infected, and "patient zero" in Wuhan for that matter may have been asymptomatic -we don't know and should be clear on that.


----------



## rederob (25 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Where is yours Rederob? Found it on some disused TP?



It was linked earlier - did you miss it.


----------



## satanoperca (25 March 2020)

rederob said:


> It was linked earlier - did you miss it.




That is evidence? Wow, I hope you don't trade stocks


----------



## againsthegrain (25 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Really, really, really.
> "China is sending medical supplies and protective equipment such as face masks to dozens of countries and has given US$20 million ($35 million) to the World Health Organisation's COVID-19 appeal."
> 
> WOW, $20M, they are such good citizens aren't they. This is text book stuff.
> ...




Nothing is free,  somewhere down the road china will be happy to use this as "you owe us now"  this is exactly their style of tactics.... giving loans poor countries can't repay etc


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Strongly agreed.
> 
> That said, it is also very clear that Australia cannot sensibly remain so closely tied to either China, the US or any other single country. This crisis has made that reality very clear.
> 
> ...



Great post smurf, absolutely what we need to do, maintaining our living standards by selling everything in the house isn't sustainable.
We have filled our obligation to the Lima agreement, now we need to get fair value for money for our resources, as happened in the 1960 where mining companies had to build furnaces and smelters to gain access to the minerals.
If the companies don't want to build furnaces etc, tax them on volume so that the money can be used to build industries, like a new bloody serum laboratory for a start.


----------



## basilio (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Just quietly, Trump polls look like he is gone. And thank God. I don't think I could listen to you lot drone on about it for another term.




Fair enough
Any chance you have come to the view he may not have been/be a good leader for the US and the world in general ?
Or is that a bridge too far..


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Just quietly, Trump polls look like he is gone. And thank God. I don't think I could listen to you lot drone on about it for another term.



Well if that is correct, it will be business as usual, send all the manufacturing to China and low wage Countries. 
Another win for the multi national owned media, driven by advertising dollars.
Just my opinion.
Also I don't know if Greta will get an audience in China, to further the CC cause, so they can kiss that goodbye.


----------



## jbocker (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Just quietly, Trump polls look like he is gone. And thank God. I don't think I could listen to you lot drone on about it for another term.



Polls don't seem to give any real guidance in recent years. I might be wrong but I didn't think he won on the polls last time. Last Aussie election polls were way off track. If polls are saying he is gone, well then I would get ready for another Trump Term.


----------



## wayneL (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Fair enough
> Any chance you have come to the view he may not have been/be a good leader for the US and the world in general ?
> Or is that a bridge too far..



Enter The Drago... errr, the dementia patient


----------



## wayneL (25 March 2020)

Anyway, as an economic implication, both Melbourne and Sydney races were cancelled mid program today, as a licensed person may have had contact with an infected person.

Racing industry is the third largest employer Australia wide, and I believe the second largest employer in Victoria.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

basilio said:


> Fair enough
> Any chance you have come to the view he may not have been/be a good leader for the US and the world in general ?
> Or is that a bridge too far..



He tried to hobble  China, Russia and Iran, redirect manufacturing, protect borders. In my opinion he did more right then he did wrong. 
There was a pretty long list of achievements.
The economy was running pretty good till the virus. Democrats threw everything at him and nothing stuck. 

He wasn't good for the world. But he kept out of wars and pushed back after Obamas weak world leadership.

The guy as a person? 
I admired his tenacity. I doubt any president had to endure the attacks he has withstood. 
He still managed to get things done in spite of the democrats. His ability to turn attacks against him into wins is unique in itself.

The bad about trump is already written everywhere on the net. There's too many to list. But Biden is a blast into the past. Don't envy the choices.


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Polls don't seem to give any real guidance in recent years. I might be wrong but I didn't think he won on the polls last time. Last Aussie election polls were way off track. If polls are saying he is gone, well then I would get ready for another Trump Term.



7 points behind I think. And an economy on its knees. If I didn't know better I'd say the democrats were behind the coronavirus. 
It is early days but Trump took advantage of a unique situation last election. If he pulled it off again Bas will tattoo "MAGA" on his ass. 
Sanders died a quiet death so his supporters won't be as p1ssed as last time. They will most likely vote Dems.

Dems are as also pushing postal votes. They will vote harvest if they get the chance. They did it in California and thus it remains a crime ridden shthole.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 March 2020)

So pick this one apart.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...udy-shows#Ending-the-rumors-about-SARS-CoV-2-


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So pick this one apart.
> 
> https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...udy-shows#Ending-the-rumors-about-SARS-CoV-2-




I don't know enough on the subject. Or if they are able to incubate a natural disease in animals and allow the process to mutate naturally?

I'm sure if anyone could it would be the Chinese. They genetically altered embryos which were born not long ago. Increased abilities apparently. So who knows. Not enough evidence (in my opinion) to show it's true


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So pick this one apart.
> 
> https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...udy-shows#Ending-the-rumors-about-SARS-CoV-2-



Did it settle the issue for you?


----------



## SirRumpole (25 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Did it settle the issue for you?




Well, it was a scientific paper, unlike the opinions of some amateurs.


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Well, it was a scientific paper, unlike the opinions of some amateurs.



That is true and it is obviously the official line being taken, so it is pointless debating whether it was made in a Lab or natural circumstances.
If it was, the powers that be don't want to escalate the situation, so it becomes a moot point IMO.
From memory, I haven't posted one way or the other regarding its origin, because it doesn't actually change the nature of the problem that needs fixing.
Just my opinion.


----------



## satanoperca (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So pick this one apart.
> 
> https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...udy-shows#Ending-the-rumors-about-SARS-CoV-2-




Fake news. Nice try.


----------



## IFocus (25 March 2020)

April 18th to run out of ICU beds

https://sites.google.com/view/corona-daily-au/


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

Anyone have a chart on where we stand on deaths to infected compared to other nations?
Trajectory/number of days as well. Are we ahead or behind on infections over time?


----------



## SirRumpole (25 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Fake news. Nice try.




So cite a reputable medical journal that says otherwise.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 March 2020)

These breweries aren't washing their hands of the corona virus.

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Stark-warning-over-sanitiser-approvals


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> These breweries aren't washing their hands of the corona virus.



This kind of bureaucracy is the sort of thing I've zero time for. 

It's ethanol for heaven's sake, a simple chemical, being used externally to the human body. We're not talking about drugs being injected into someone etc and this is an emergency situation so they need to stop messing about with rules and regulations.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Anyone have a chart on where we stand on deaths to infected compared to other nations?



A lot of data on this site:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Zoom in and click on the cities etc for specific data.

It's not perfect and doesn't answer everything you asked but seems reasonable and I note from news footage this seems to be the exact same page that WHO and others are displaying on the wall, it looks identical in layout and content etc, so presumably it's legit.


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> April 18th to run out of ICU beds
> 
> https://sites.google.com/view/corona-daily-au/



That's interesting, yesterday you posted that we would run out of ICU beds by April 8th.
Does that mean the infection rate has slowed, or recovery has improved?


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> As I posted before this is the critical cut off for ICU beds  April 8th only 15 days away
> 
> New infection rate numbers are still vertical NZ has gone to total lock down Australia cannot to to far away
> 
> https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak



Found it, so it definitely is moving.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2

Given how critical of the rest of the world's response has been. It's important to understand  that we didn't need to be here in the first place.


----------



## jbocker (26 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A lot of data on this site:
> 
> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
> 
> ...



Brilliant site!
Is there much word about Indonesia the worlds 4th largest populated country - no statistics displayed.
I would guess there is little capability to test and record. It is probably hell on earth there.


----------



## ducati916 (26 March 2020)

Due to COVID-19 being a pandemic, the economic consequences are global and therefore magnified. Here is the data from the 1918 pandemic. Obviously conditions were different being post WW1, but it still remains a valid measure.







jog on
duc


----------



## IFocus (26 March 2020)

In case anyone hasn't thought about this but action today is up to 14 days before you get results.

Infection rates today are a result from up 14 days past.


----------



## sptrawler (26 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Just quietly, Trump polls look like he is gone. And thank God. I don't think I could listen to you lot drone on about it for another term.



Things might not be as bad as first thought, Jbocker was right, Bas will be on anti depressants.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...ing-coronavirus-pandemic-20200326-p54e0e.html
From the article:
_US President Donald Trump's approval ratings have hit an all-time high during the coronavirus crisis, with a majority of Americans saying they approve of his handling of the pandemic.

The development - evident across a range of recent polls - has astounded Trump's critics who expected the American public to judge him harshly for his often misleading and erratic response to the outbreak.
The country's two most closely-watched polling aggregators both show Trump recording his best approval ratings since he took office. RealClearPolitics puts him at 46.3 per cent approval and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight at 44.6 per cent_.


----------



## basilio (26 March 2020)

Dr Norman Swans latest podcast offers an insight into how to break the COVID 19 outbreak in 4-6 weeks.

ttps://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/the-tantalising-scheme-to-fix-coronavirus-in-only-six-weeks/12090206


----------



## jbocker (26 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Is there much word about Indonesia the worlds 4th largest populated country - no statistics displayed.



Sorry Folks The statistics are there just wasn't centred over the island I thought better represented Indonesia. It is one of the data points on Borneo.
790 cases 58 deaths. This is going to get very very bad.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Things might not be as bad as first thought, Jbocker was right, Bas will be on anti depressants.
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...ing-coronavirus-pandemic-20200326-p54e0e.html
> From the article:
> _US President Donald Trump's approval ratings have hit an all-time high during the coronavirus crisis, with a majority of Americans saying they approve of his handling of the pandemic.
> ...



Polls indicate Biden is ahead by a lot. But it's about a year till election and a lot can happen.
Off the figures, I don't think trump can win.


----------



## againsthegrain (26 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Polls indicate Biden is ahead by a lot. But it's about a year till election and a lot can happen.
> Off the figures, I don't think trump can win.




unless he pulls the vaccine from his hat


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 March 2020)

This is a link to work done by Warwick McKibbon on possible economic effects of Covid-19 on world economy. ...but only a recent Q&A. The work seems to date from Feb rather than more recent.

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/what-...ail&utm_term=0_953154ac75-3af2de19d7-83781601


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> unless he pulls the vaccine from his hat



Or Bidens alzheimer's really kicks in. Or covid knocks one of them off.
Too many variables I suppose.


----------



## IFocus (26 March 2020)

US is looking bad





https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028


----------



## IFocus (26 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Or Bidens alzheimer's really kicks in. Or covid knocks one of them off.
> Too many variables I suppose.




What sort of process / system puts people like Biden and Trump into power


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> In case anyone hasn't thought about this but action today is up to 14 days before you get results.
> 
> Infection rates today are a result from up 14 days past.




I really don't think people are tracking this mentally (read: completely freaking out about Government inaction) in the way they should be.

The latest NSW Health data is from yesterday, 25th March. 14 days prior to that was 11th March.

On the 11th there were 65 infections.

Yesterday there were 1065 infections.

This number is doubling every 4 days. And these are **** NSW Health numbers where they only test people who have been overseas and have the worst symptoms or people who have been in close contact with someone who is a confirmed case. These are **** numbers that take a week to catch up to reality because the backlog of tests is so high, the numbers we see today are probably a week or so old. These are numbers that don't take into account all the people in the service economy who have to keep working and potentially spreading the disease from young to old because they couldn't get tested so their boss told them they have to keep coming to work.

If the **** numbers keep going at this rate, in 2 weeks from now we are talking 8500 infections in NSW.

For a disease that 15-20% of people who get infected need an ICU bed. That's 1700 people.

NSW has like 900 ICU beds. Do you think those beds are lying empty awaiting COVID-19 patients? No they are full of people who got hit by a car or have bad influenza or cancer is ******* up their body. Do you think that the **** NSW numbers will matter once old people start turning up with horrible pneumonia to the ICU? 

These idiots in power are waiting for the numbers to get worse to do what is necessary but I don't know why they don't seem to realise once they numbers get worse it will be too late.

If they are trying to save the economy by playing a game of chicken with this virus, do they not realise that people aren't going to give a **** about work if their loved ones can't get an ICU bed? 

I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters, I'm not. So none of this surprises me, this is pretty much exactly what I would expect from both the Federal and State Libs. But nonetheless, I feel they are toying with our lives in a way that is murderously negligent and despite my lack of surprise I am supremely freaked out and angry.


----------



## IFocus (26 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I really don't think people are tracking this mentally (read: completely freaking out about Government inaction) in the way they should be.
> 
> The latest NSW Health data is from yesterday, 25th March. 14 days prior to that was 11th March.
> 
> ...




A close friend got told yesterday by his specialist that he was a "DNV".

He has a immune disease and doing really well on a drug test trial if he gets Corona unlikely to survive.

BTW "DNV" *means do not ventilate.
*
These decisions are being made now.

Regardless of the federal government at least the WA government have been pretty up front and so far making reasonably good calls.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> What sort of process / system puts people like Biden and Trump into power



God only knows. Power and corruption seem to go hand in hand.  
Not a brilliant choice for the US. One guy doesn't know what he is doing. The other doesn't know where he is.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> If they are trying to save the economy by playing a game of chicken with this virus, do they not realise that people aren't going to give a **** about work if their loved ones can't get an ICU bed?
> 
> I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters, I'm not. So none of this surprises me, this is pretty much exactly what I would expect from both the Federal and State Libs. But nonetheless, I feel they are toying with our lives in a way that is murderously negligent and despite my lack of surprise I am supremely freaked out and angry.




I agree. I know the libs are trying to play it sensible and used measured response. But it should have just locked down early. The original plan I heard a few weeks back was: make it to school holidays. Not going to happen. Better they act while it is manageable.

It will be a tsunami of patients at this rate. Our hospitals can't cope with a Friday night. How our health officials can sit there and think this won't get out of control very quickly is beyond me.


----------



## SirRumpole (26 March 2020)

The main danger is fear. 

Fear of getting the virus, fear of not being able to get essential supplies, fear of not getting medical attention, fear of not being able to pay the bills.

Fear brings panic and discontent with government. Discontent and fear could breed violence like we've already seen at supermarkets. It could happen in Centrelink queues or against people 'suspected' of being infected.

To successfully handle the situation, the government has to attack all these sources of fear. First it has to flatten off the infection curve otherwise an increasing number of cases could see competition for resources. Doctors and nurses could get sick and this would make matters worse. A total lockdown of nothing essential seems inevitable, including schools. Hit it hard and hit it quick and be prepared to use tough tactics to enforce the isolation. Norman Swan reckons it could be done in a few weeks. I hope he's right.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The main danger is fear.
> 
> Fear of getting the virus, fear of not being able to get essential supplies, fear of not getting medical attention, fear of not being able to pay the bills.
> 
> ...




Just look at Spain. Workers allegedly  left nursing homes and the elderly were found dead in their beds. Looks worse then italy at the moment.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I really don't think people are tracking this mentally (read: completely freaking out about Government inaction) in the way they should be.
> 
> The latest NSW Health data is from yesterday, 25th March. 14 days prior to that was 11th March.
> 
> ...




Yep, reality is that a lot of people seem to not grasp the concept of compound growth. If they did then pretty much their entire world view would change in an instant.

Constant compounding growth, of anything, ends up an impossibly big number and that usually means disaster.



InsvestoBoy said:


> NSW has like 900 ICU beds. Do you think those beds are lying empty awaiting COVID-19 patients? No they are full of people who got hit by a car or have bad influenza or cancer is ******* up their body.




I've had a family member spend considerable time in ICU some years ago following a "routine" operation which went wrong.

They're permanently on the list to never be given anesthetic ever again. Took months to wake them up last time and the whole ICU environment is pretty full on yes.

Simple reality is that the system does not have capacity to cope with a major outbreak of this disease without a lot of people ending up dead and quite a few more surviving but with their lungs stuffed. There's plenty of people in the community, not just old ones either, who are dead if they get this.

I'd liken it to catching a bus. The only way to do it requires that at some point you are ahead of the bus, the bus stops and you get on. Constantly running down the road behind it, never getting in front, means you're failing and will not be getting on the bus. You need to get in front at some point and board the bus. It's much the same with this virus - we need to have action that's stronger than the virus' spread at that point in time. Sooner we do it, the less drastic that action needs to be but it needs to jump in front of the curve not run behind it.



InsvestoBoy said:


> I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters




In my case I'll give any of them a kick when they deserve it. Sadly Labor, Liberal, Greens, One Nation etc all play politics rather than leading and all are failures at the practical application of really basic mathematics. All play the same games just twisted to fit whatever issues they choose to run with.

It's a sad reality that the average self-employed tradesman or school canteen has better accounting systems than the political parties are able to implement when it comes to policy. I mean seriously, look into the detail of policy and they all struggle to not give favours to certain interests, claim credit for things already done or which are inevitable regardless of what they do and so on.

Minor detail aside, we'd be in a broadly similar situation no matter who was in government. 

Consider how many warnings governments and opposition parties have received over the years from doctors, environmental scientists, engineers and so on about various things. All ignored or close to it by all the significant parties unless grabbing a token piece of it suits their objectives.

Wouldn't it be a real nuisance if we get the virus sorted, tell everyone it's back to business as usual, then have to promptly shut everything not essential once again this time because there's a crisis with power supply, gas, water or whatever. The chance of that is not zero by the way, indeed it's more likely than a virus pandemic, but governments of all persuasions continue to ignore the warnings and hope it doesn't happen. Someday it will......


----------



## banco (26 March 2020)

While I have no doubt there are good arguments for (and against) the hard lockdown option it seems like some of the calls for a hard lockdown have almost a masochistic quality to them. "Humanity has sinned and now we must be punished" It's similar to some of the sentiment you see with the climate change debate.


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/d5324e3676d38af509d5ac25c56e7cec

The dots keep getting closer together, one by one.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Y
> Minor detail aside, we'd be in a broadly similar situation no matter who was in government.




I disagree and you only have to look at how Daniel Andrews has communicated to his state to see that your statement is wrong.


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

https://ncov2019.live/data


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 March 2020)

Beware, the hoarders are out in force once again:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/2292c9ce3b9ea5bbc55ff7cc1b8f299c



> Under the new, temporary restrictions, which came into effect today, shoppers will be restricted to a maximum of four items per person for cleaning and storage products, gardens sprayers and batteries.
> 
> There will be a maximum of one item per customer for generators, gas bottles, respirators or face masks, fuel cans, methylated spirits and turpentine.




Garden sprayers? Batteries? Turpentine? Generators?

If anyone thinks we can electrocute the virus and get rid of it then I'm sure I can organise far more power than you'll get out of any portable generator sold in a hardware shop. 

As for running around the garden spraying turps everywhere


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

banco said:


> While I have no doubt there are good arguments for (and against) the hard lockdown option it seems like some of the calls for a hard lockdown have almost a masochistic quality to them. "Humanity has sinned and now we must be punished" It's similar to some of the sentiment you see with the climate change debate.



People are too stupid to stay away from each other. I think we need 80% to lockdown for infection to slow under modeling. Not 70% as it has little effect.


----------



## sptrawler (26 March 2020)

My main concern is, having a shutdown and all the ramifications of it, then lifting the shutdown and 6 weeks later being in the same place again.
We need testing equipment to get an idea of how widespread it is and where it is.
We are probably on the end of a queue for testing equipment, they are probably being allocated on a needs based system and Europe and the U.S will be at the head of the queue.
Just my opinion.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/d5324e3676d38af509d5ac25c56e7cec
> 
> The dots keep getting closer together, one by one.



I wonder if they bought any before it was officially news?


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I disagree and you only have to look at how Daniel Andrews has communicated to his state to see that your statement is wrong.



The same Daniel Andrews who was still thinking a Grand Prix was going to happen, complete with people flying in from a known infection hot spot, until others pulled the rug from under it?

The same one who was trying to keep a casino open until ScoMo decided otherwise?

Sure he's arguably done a better job of leading in general than the Australian government in some ways but then the same could be said of other state premiers so it's more a state versus federal thing than a Labor versus Liberal one.

Does anyone think that if Labor had won the last federal election then they'd have moved to reduce Australia's economic reliance on any single industry and on any single foreign country? If they had a plan to get manufacturing going again and not be reliant on others for essential items then they kept awfully quiet about it. They'd plausibly have won the election if they'd drawn attention to such a policy.

All much the same. Both sides and most of the others are wedded to the status quo and don't want to upset it in any way really even though the risks are obvious to many. This virus has forced the upset that was always going to happen at some point......


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I wonder if they bought any before it was officially news?



They bought them in Jan and Feb


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/d5324e3676d38af509d5ac25c56e7cec
> 
> The dots keep getting closer together, one by one.




That is a crazy story.

Where the **** was ASIO on this? Massive intelligence failure.


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

https://greatgameindia.com/secret-history-of-coronavirus-bioweapon/
Interesting, hard to tell if is factual.


----------



## Joe90 (26 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A lot of data on this site:
> 
> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
> 
> ...




The historical data behind this site is available by state for AUS from a github link at the bottom of the web page. If you are 1/2 way maths inclined and can drive a spreadsheet you can download the historical .csv file and model the progress of the disease in your own state.


----------



## moXJO (26 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> That is a crazy story.
> 
> Where the **** was ASIO on this? Massive intelligence failure.



I don't think it was illegal. 
They may have had good intentions and wanted to help their country.  It looks bad after the fact though.


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

China looks after China, which I think is great.
So can we, Australians do the same thing, look after Australians
Stop selling out the country.


----------



## sptrawler (26 March 2020)

Sounds like some of the Sydney ferries are closing, over the virus.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...uise-and-ferry-operators-20200326-p54e96.html


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sounds like some of the Sydney ferries are closing, over the virus.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...uise-and-ferry-operators-20200326-p54e96.html



I'm living near a ferry wharf; the 5pm, from Barangaroo, usually disembarks 100+ commuters. Yesterday it was 3. Now run by TransDev, and contracted by the state govt, will milk it for as long as possible. The unions, proud upholders of their 19th century practices, will fight tooth and nail any stand-downs.

The tourist boats have stopped (Mainly Sealink - see Ann .... Capn Cook is owned by them, too)) and the party boats, those lockout law evaders, have been forced to halt.


----------



## SirRumpole (26 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If they had a plan to get manufacturing going again and not be reliant on others for essential items then they kept awfully quiet about it. They'd plausibly have won the election if they'd drawn attention to such a policy.




I seem to recall they said something about an electric car industry, but that was a long time ago now.


----------



## SirRumpole (26 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> That is a crazy story.
> 
> Where the **** was ASIO on this? Massive intelligence failure.




Ban them from ever operating in this country again.


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Ban them from ever operating in this country again.




Who is going to ban them? Who, someone, those green aliens?


----------



## SirRumpole (26 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Who is going to ban them? Who, someone, those green aliens?




We have laws about who can operate in this country, you need an ABN for starters. Look up yourself who administers those.


----------



## satanoperca (26 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> We have laws about who can operate in this country, you need an ABN for starters. Look up yourself who administers those.



I asked who, those people, those regulations, those laws, who enforces them in these times?

Laws mean nothing if they are not enforced.

This cracks me up "Look up yourself who administers those" administers. Hope you have keep fit and are strong physically. Because administrators can not force decisions.


----------



## rederob (26 March 2020)

Over the weekend the USA will overtake *all *other nations as Trump has chosen to MAGA on the back of COVID-19 records.
The economic implications will be profound.
The USA has chosen the "soft" approach to COVID-19 spread as it prefers individual freedoms over death.  This is tragic for those Americans who have noted the hardline successes of other nations and wondered why they could be somehow immune from COVID-19.
Trump is reluctant to close his industries and damage his economy, but push might become shove next week.
Our ASX is in for a step down once this happens as we have always caught a cold after America coughed.


----------



## Humid (26 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> God only knows. Power and corruption seem to go hand in hand.
> Not a brilliant choice for the US. One guy doesn't know what he is doing. The other doesn't know where he is.




Sounds like the coalition


----------



## Humid (26 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I'm living near a ferry wharf; the 5pm, from Barangaroo, usually disembarks 100+ commuters. Yesterday it was 3. Now run by TransDev, and contracted by the state govt, will milk it for as long as possible. The unions, proud upholders of their 19th century practices, will fight tooth and nail any stand-downs.
> 
> The tourist boats have stopped (Mainly Sealink - see Ann .... Capn Cook is owned by them, too)) and the party boats, those lockout law evaders, have been forced to halt.




The 21st century practices are in Centrelink lines


----------



## jbocker (26 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Listening on radio yesterday about a seafood company in SW of WA is spending $1M _*to opening and running *_a cannery _*in (Australia) *_the SW of WA. Up till now the seafood is caught here and sent to Thailand where it is canned and then (I think) bought back here for sale. I assume exported again. It will cost more to can here but I think it is a trial.
> 
> ..but its *THAT *folks is what I want hear. WE need to get some of these things back.



 Following up on what I had heard. This is great news. Wish them all the best.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/canned-seafood-plant-set-for-albany/12068086


----------



## IFocus (26 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I seem to recall they said something about an electric car industry, but that was a long time ago now.




Yep apparently as a result Australians would lose their weekends.......remember that.......same people now want Australia to believe them.

NSW have had a few issues but over all regardless of politics they (state premiers ) have all been very good given the circumstances.

I note that the federal government keep harping on about everyone working together where as the state premiers have just stuck to messaging the issues and requirements.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Yep apparently as a result Australians would lose their weekends.......remember that.......same people now want Australia to believe them.



Whilst most people will have had their weekends pretty much stuffed anyway if it involved any sort of social activity whatsoever.


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Yep apparently as a result Australians would lose their weekends.......remember that.......same people now want Australia to believe them.
> 
> NSW have had a few issues but over all regardless of politics they (state premiers ) have all been very good given the circumstances.
> 
> I note that the federal government keep harping on about everyone working together where as the state premiers have just stuck to messaging the issues and requirements.



I thought the States and Federal are working together?
McGowan is asking for federal assistance with regard the cruise ships.
But hey keep the tribe intact, never bend, never concede, never agree. Lol
Probably the very reason Australia will fall. IMO


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I thought the States and Federal are working together?



They seem to be working together as such but if I just based it on what's being reported via the media (all of it) then the state premiers of either political persuasion seem to have been somewhat ahead during all of this.


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> They seem to be working together as such but if I just based it on what's being reported via the media (all of it) then the state premiers of either political persuasion seem to have been somewhat ahead during all of this.



Based on common sense the Federal Government set up the national cabinet of premiers, so one would think they are an intrinsic part of the process.
It makes sense to have a different response, from different States based on their population density and ability to impliment an appropriate plan.
As I said earlier W.A is a lot different to NSW or Victoria, it isnt a one size fits all IMO.
But it is just my opinion and I think McGowan is doing a great measured approach to it, fortunately he hasnt got a peanut gallery taking shots from all angles.lol
The constant attack on the Federal Government, just shows the loss of an Australian identity IMO.
Now it is a National sport to tear down the Federal Government, it has happened to all the Governments since the fall of Howard.
All it has done is undermine any sense of respect for an elected Government, Rudd copped it, then Gillard, then Rudd, then Abbott, then Turnbull, now Morrison.
The next one wont be any different IMO, we basically have become a rabble, that the media controls.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It makes sense to have a different response, from different States based on their population density and ability to impliment an appropriate plan.
> As I said earlier W.A is a lot different to NSW or Victoria, it isnt a one size fits all IMO.



Agreed.

The issue though is that certainly the impression the media (all of it) are giving is that the only reason NSW and Vic haven't moved more aggressively is that the feds won't agree.

That could of course be a media beat up but it's the impression they're giving.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

Looking for data points on the impact this is having on the economy, here's a site which tracks mobility. It shows Sydney as down 80% from normal and also has data for many other cities in various countries:

https://citymapper.com/CMI


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed.
> 
> The issue though is that certainly the impression the media (all of it) are giving is that the only reason NSW and Vic haven't moved more aggressively is that the feds won't agree.
> 
> That could of course be a media beat up but it's the impression they're giving.



The reason being, that the media is Sydney, Melbourne focused, they are as dumb as duck $hit.
They were cheering on the end to negative gearing for investment properties, last year, yet in W.A mining towns they are selling for a third of what they cost ten years ago. So what would have happened to those people, like I said dumb as duck $hit.
The media Australia wide is calling for an immediate lockdown.
Why would you shut down all industry and schools in Exmouth W.A, Dubbo NSW, Longreach Qld If there is no virus there
It all sounds f##king sensational, but in reality if the virus can be contained to the major cities and not transferred to the country areas, we may actually save a lot of money and angst.
It is like saying we should have an immediate lockdown yesterday, then today Tasmania tells all tourists to F#### off, I mean lets get real.
At the moment there seems to be a controlled shutdown of businesses, the pressure on centerlink would be enormous, they are starting to identify where the outbreaks are and reducing interstate travel.
With luck they will get enough test kits to concentrate where the major transmission is and then lock down where it is required.
W.A and Tasmania, may not even need a complete lockdown, if the outbreaks are localised to Perth and maybe a couple of FIFO towns, who knows
But the ranting that is going on the media IMO helps no one and hopefully ends up in the media imploding.


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2020)

Another way of addressing the media issue, would be to say to the media, you call when to do a total lockdown and if it doesnt work you pay for it.
See how much they have to say then.
It is ok having all this tabloid chook fodder, but at the end of the day it is peoples jobs, peoples lives and to do this to them and have it not work, would be absulutely incomprehensible.
Just my opinion.


----------



## MrChow (27 March 2020)

Futures have the XAO opening +20% since Tuesday.


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> They seem to be working together as such but if I just based it on what's being reported via the media (all of it) then the state premiers of either political persuasion seem to have been somewhat ahead during all of this.



Really ? Qld included?
I can not believe how incompetent our state premier has been..
Always the last to act on everything.i am happy to be proven wrong
Our figures are on par with  Victoria a much bigger state..a direct result


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

Norway sovereign fund has lost 115 billion euro so far.https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture...orvege-a-perdu-115-milliards-d-euros-20200326
Anyone aware of our own fund figure?


----------



## ducati916 (27 March 2020)

In US




Over 3.2 million new claims.

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> In US
> 
> View attachment 101721
> 
> ...



And the stock market jumps.
More bad news more stimulus.   
This is sick
Take a step back and think:
Is the stock market a welfare industry feeding on gov QE and stimulus or does it still represent in any way a barometer of real world companies producing good  and services.....
Unreal
Note: i understand why it jumps and so will the asx today yet, the market is supposedly looking ahead and i do not see how that news could possibly be positive ahead


----------



## satanoperca (27 March 2020)

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...stralian-assets-20200326-p54e3z.html#comments

All part of the plan.


----------



## hja (27 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...stralian-assets-20200326-p54e3z.html#comments
> 
> All part of the plan.



Oh wonderful... and needed it publicised too!
How are your ni hao~ phrases coming along?


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

satellite internet provider:


Note the date: just a coincidence? 
Skymesh has been running for years so not a new company


----------



## Knobby22 (27 March 2020)

Australian company Resmed now making ventilators...in California.


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

There are many ideas that float the internet without a rational basis.
The idea that it's the media that is calling for lockdowns is one.  Infectious disease specialists understand how diseases spread, and they have noted how Wuhan's lockdown, a globally unprecedented event, has been successful.  It's unsurprising the media should latch on to experts and refer to what has proved successful, and report this.
Our political response has been to ignore best practice and disease experts until the writing is on the wall and their earlier stance has proven wrong.  The size of *ok* gatherings has variously fallen from 500 to 300 to 100 to 20 to 10 to 5.  All this apparently on the same best medical advice from our CMO who selectively chooses advice from various expert panels.
Some here think it's the media beating up hysteria, and occasionally it's true.  It's also true at time of writing that it's ok for hairdressers to operate, schools to operate as normal, weddings to max out at 5 people but funerals at 10 to name just some strange decisions.
The idea that States are different is sound, but that's a very different logic to understanding disease spread.  Worse, in our context it amplifies the mixed messages which have led to public confusion.  Right now we have Premiers variously saying they prefer you don't send your kids to school, but its safe to do so!
Ideas like not shutting  down all industry and schools in Exmouth W.A, Dubbo NSW, or Longreach Qld, if there is no virus there are sound, but *only if true*.  However, without testing we do not know.

There are widespread conspiracy theories that China hid this disease from the world.  There is absolutely no evidence this is true. From advising WHO on 31 December 2019, and WHO immediately passing this on to all nations, South Korea by 3 January 2020 - yes, just 3 days later - had implemented quarantine and screening measures for travellers from Wuhan at their points of entry.  Yet, despite full knowledge of COVID-19's high infection rate we had NSW letting passengers off cruise ships without health checks over 2 months later.
I also know little was occurring at our airports as on 7 March I collected my friend (returning from SE Asia) from Brisbane Airport.  I mention the date because on 22 March I first discovered you could search flight numbers to see if anyone on a particular flight had subsequently tested positive.  It turns out my friend sat in the exact same seat number as a person who did test positive and was on the same flight number the previous day.  It may have been a different plane - I do not know.  Clearly it was over 2 weeks ago and I have no health issues, and neither does my friend, who is an "essential services worker."  Neither of us are young, so we sighed in relief.

Everyone knows the worst for us is yet to come.  Some are saying we know we should have done x, y and z with the benefit of hindsight.  Except that the advice of true experts in disease control is not being followed, and the obvious lessons of what has been shown to work overseas are not being adopted quickly and, in some cases, not at all.


----------



## spooly74 (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> There are widespread conspiracy theories that China hid this disease from the world.  There is absolutely no evidence this is true.



Have see multiple reports of Doctors being jailed and evidence destroyed.?



rederob said:


> From advising WHO on 31 December 2019, and WHO immediately passing this on to all nations, South Korea by 3 January 2020 - yes, just 3 days later - had implemented quarantine and screening measures for travellers from Wuhan at their points of entry.



There's this tweet from WHO almost a week later in the attached image.



rederob said:


> Yet, despite full knowledge of COVID-19's high infection rate we had NSW letting passengers off cruise ships without health checks over 2 months later.



Heads should roll for this.


----------



## lusk (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And the stock market jumps.
> More bad news more stimulus.
> This is sick
> Take a step back and think:
> ...




The stock market is a gambling den, keep that in mind at all times. It will never follow any logic. Trade what you see not what you believe should happen.


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> There are many ideas that float the internet without a rational basis.
> The idea that it's the media that is calling for lockdowns is one.  Infectious disease specialists understand how diseases spread, and they have noted how Wuhan's lockdown, a globally unprecedented event, has been successful.  It's unsurprising the media should latch on to experts and refer to what has proved successful, and report this.
> Our political response has been to ignore best practice and disease experts until the writing is on the wall and their earlier stance has proven wrong.  The size of *ok* gatherings has variously fallen from 500 to 300 to 100 to 20 to 10 to 5.  All this apparently on the same best medical advice from our CMO who selectively chooses advice from various expert panels.
> Some here think it's the media beating up hysteria, and occasionally it's true.  It's also true at time of writing that it's ok for hairdressers to operate, schools to operate as normal, weddings to max out at 5 people but funerals at 10 to name just some strange decisions.
> ...



The world is turning upside down: i fully agree with @rederob
Not kidding: 100%
Let's see if my corner of a paper napkin prediction of 1000 death here by the 9/04 hold
If that prediction made by@qldfrog in 2 minutes looking at 4 graphs of available web sites hold, we will know for sure that our politicians murdered 500 people at least.
These include both parties as scomo and the state premiers are both adopting lagging policies.
The only scary thing in Rob post is that it seems he lives in the same state as me


----------



## basilio (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Is the stock market a *welfare industry feeding on gov QE and stimulus* or does it still represent in any way a barometer of real world companies producing good and services.....




That sums it up pretty well Q Frog. 
I can see the market making huge gains in the short term.  Speculation and gambling on sharp movements is very profitable.
I suggest that most  investors are now focusing on making money *in the  stock markets *rather than the actual real world companies.


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

lusk said:


> The stock market is a gambling den, keep that in mind at all times. It will never follow any logic. Trade what you see not what you believe should happen.



Very true, so true that I try to limit my discretionary trading and rely on systems instead


----------



## basilio (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Norway sovereign fund has lost 115 billion euro so far.https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture...orvege-a-perdu-115-milliards-d-euros-20200326
> Anyone aware of our own fund figure?




Clearly every fund that is invested in the markets has dropped like a stone. And by definition all the funds are heavily invested in stock markets rather than cash. 

Still it would have  been interesting to see which if any of the big fund managers reevaluated their positions from late  January onwards . By then the explosion of the CORVID 19 in China and the subsequent lockdown was in place. That event alone should have raised concern about global growth.

And there was clear evidence that the virus was also in other countries by the end of January.

But the markets never  fully reflected those risks did it even as the evidence unfolded ?

https://www.theguardian.com/science...ls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-news-for-jan-24-2020-2020-01-24


----------



## basilio (27 March 2020)

*Coronavirus: 'Act early to save more than 30 million lives'*
More than 30 million lives around the world could be saved during the coronavirus pandemic if countries act quickly, a report from Imperial College London researchers suggests.
The ideal strategy is to introduce widespread testing and strict social distancing measures rapidly.
Acting early could reduce mortality by as much as 95%, the report finds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52055546


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

spooly74 said:


> Have see multiple reports of Doctors being jailed and evidence destroyed.



China controls its internal affairs with an iron fist.  But you have confused this with China meeting its international obligations and reporting an "unknown" disease when they realised they had something very different on their hands.
As to the WHO tweet, read it carefully and compare it with all its other advice.  Note also that the WHO issued the same advice in relation to South Korea in January, so it was hardly playing favourites.  The WHO did not say it was *unnecessary *to adopt public health measures in relation to travel and that's why South Korea adopted point of entry testing when they did.
Remember that it was not until well into February that the highly infectious nature of COVID-19 became apparent.  Early advice was probably conditioned on the fact that previous corona viruses like SARS and MERS were not easily contractable.
Anyhow, if you are going to suggest heads should roll, why not attach that sentiment to our authorities that still do not appreciate that many lives can be saved by adopting measures which have got this virus under control elsewhere?
[Late edit - see @basilio's link above.]
[Late edit 2 - there is no truth to the rumour that the SWAT team which has surrounded @qldfrog's sanctuary in search of a napkin with treasonous information will be destroyed.]


----------



## basilio (27 March 2020)

BBC response to the lockdown ?


----------



## basilio (27 March 2020)

This vid is probably more suitable for general exhibition.


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

basilio said:


> BBC response to the lockdown ?



Wasn't that an official advice from Doctor WHO?


----------



## Knobby22 (27 March 2020)

basilio said:


> This vid is probably more suitable for general exhibition.




That was actually creepy.


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Over the weekend the USA will overtake *all *other nations as Trump has chosen to MAGA on the back of COVID-19 records.
> The economic implications will be profound.



I should have said *OVERNIGHT*.
Trump can now say he leads China in something.
The issue will be if US markets react tonight our time to a clear failure of policy to quash COVID-19 spread.  By then there will be even more damning statistics.


----------



## againsthegrain (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> I should have said *OVERNIGHT*.
> Trump can now say he leads China in something.
> The issue will be if US markets react tonight our time to a clear failure of policy to quash COVID-19 spread.  By then there will be even more damning statistics.




No idea how credible this article is,  but if there is some truth to it Trump still has alot to catch up on

https://www.breitbart.com/national-...-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/


----------



## mcgrath111 (27 March 2020)

The major indices may be increasing for now, but I cannot possible see how we don't go down further. 

Buyers beware!


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> No idea how credible this article is,  but if there is some truth to it Trump still has alot to catch up on
> 
> https://www.breitbart.com/national-...-users-disappear-in-three-months-of-pandemic/



Just be aware that there are about 200 million more cell phone accounts than there are people in China.  
Aside from that Breitbart's track record on China is as dodgy as some of the other conspiracy theories here.


----------



## spooly74 (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> China controls its internal affairs with an iron fist.  But you have confused this with China meeting its international obligations and reporting an "unknown" disease when they realised they had something very different on their hands.



When the dust settles that timeline will be examined closely. Why was the US the first to shut down travel from China on Feb 1st and not the Chinese themselves prior? Patient zero can apparently be tracked back to early/mid December.



rederob said:


> As to the WHO tweet, read it carefully and compare it with all its other advice.  Note also that the WHO issued the same advice in relation to South Korea in January, so it was hardly playing favourites.  The WHO did not say it was *unnecessary *to adopt public health measures in relation to travel and that's why South Korea adopted point of entry testing when they did.
> Remember that it was not until well into February that the highly infectious nature of COVID-19 became apparent.  Early advice was probably conditioned on the fact that previous corona viruses like SARS and MERS were not easily contractable.



SARS & MERS only became transmissible a few days after the patient was showing severe symptoms.  This was clearly not the case with Covid at the time.
Over 40 countries had restricted travel from China at the time of that tweet.


----------



## SirRumpole (27 March 2020)

Insurance company doing it's bit for the cause...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...exclude-people-who-die-from-covid-19/12093542


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

Post went weird


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

spooly74 said:


> When the dust settles that timeline will be examined closely. Why was the US the first to shut down travel from China on Feb 1st and not the Chinese themselves prior? Patient zero can apparently be tracked back to early/mid December.
> 
> 
> SARS & MERS only became transmissible a few days after the patient was showing severe symptoms.  This was clearly not the case with Covid at the time.
> Over 40 countries had restricted travel from China at the time of that tweet.



First, the timeline will not change, so what will be examined?
Second, many countries restricted travel from China, yet few enacted any other testing regime from international travellers.  On the other hand China was providing its best information to other nations where passengers had an identifiable prior Wuhan presence.
"Patient zero" in Wuhan may go back to November, whereas patient zero to the UK in mid January may have contracted the virus in Austria.  This Austrian town now has hundreds of traceable cases attributed to it throughout Europe.

The sad reality of hindsight is that while we were concentrating on the "known' - ie Wuhan - we completely dropped the ball on arrivals from all other countries.

COVID-19 seems able to spread widely asymtomatically, and this has not been the cases with previous corona viruses.  This is a benefit of hindsight issue.  If you think treating doctors and staff in Wuhan's hospitals were willingly going to allow themselves to get sick and die, then it becomes a plausible explanation.  However I doubt that makes any sense.


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> There are widespread conspiracy theories that China hid this disease from the world.  There is absolutely no evidence this is true. From advising WHO on 31 December 2019, and WHO immediately passing this on to all nations, South Korea by 3 January 2020 - yes, just 3 days later - had implemented quarantine and screening measures for travellers from Wuhan at their points of entry.  Yet, despite full knowledge of COVID-19's high infection rate we had NSW letting passengers off cruise ships without health checks over 2 months later.
> I also know little was occurring at our airports as on 7 March I collected my friend (returning from SE Asia) from Brisbane Airport.  I mention the date because on 22 March I first discovered you could search flight numbers to see if anyone on a particular flight had subsequently tested positive.  It turns out my friend sat in the exact same seat number as a person who did test positive and was on the same flight number the previous day.  It may have been a different plane - I do not know.  Clearly it was over 2 weeks ago and I have no health issues, and neither does my friend, who is an "essential services worker."  Neither of us are young, so we sighed in relief.
> 
> Everyone knows the worst for us is yet to come.  Some are saying we know we should have done x, y and z with the benefit of hindsight.  Except that the advice of true experts in disease control is not being followed, and the obvious lessons of what has been shown to work overseas are not being adopted quickly and, in some cases, not at all.



Once again wrong....

This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.

Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.

Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.

Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.

Dec. 30:


Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.
Dec. 31:


Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.
Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.


An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples.
Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus' complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9.

Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response.

Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome.

Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases.

Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China.

Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus."

Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus.

Jan. 18:


The Wuhan Health Commission announces four new cases.
Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck.
Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan.

Jan. 20:


The first case announced in South Korea.
Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese doctor who is helping to coordinate the coronavirus response, announces the virus can be passed between people.
Jan. 21:


The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States.
CCP flagship newspaper People’s Daily mentions the coronavirus epidemic and Xi's actions to fight it for the first time.
China's top political commission in charge of law and order warns that “anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of [virus] cases out of his or her own self-interest will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity."
Jan. 23: Wuhan and three other cities are put on lockdown. Right around this time, approximately 5 million people leave the city without being screened for the illness.

Jan. 24–30: China celebrates the Lunar New Year holiday. Hundreds of millions of people are in transit around the country as they visit relatives.

Jan. 24: China extends the lockdown to cover 36 million people and starts to rapidly build a new hospital in Wuhan. From this point, very strict measures continue to be implemented around the country for the rest of the epidemic.

The bottom line: China is now trying to create a narrative that it's an example of how to handle this crisis when in fact its early actions led to the virus spreading around the globe.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Really ? Qld included?



Agreed that Qld seems somewhat less enthusiastic than others at least thus far.


----------



## spooly74 (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> COVID-19 seems able to spread widely asymtomatically, and this has not been the cases with previous corona viruses.  This is a benefit of hindsight issue.



Perhaps, I guess it depends on whether it'll possible to find out what China knew and when they knew it... iron fist et all.



rederob said:


> The sad reality of hindsight is that while we were concentrating on the "known' - ie Wuhan - we completely dropped the ball on arrivals from all other countries.



Agreed.

Looking forward, given that there's been great success with treating patients with the Malaria and other combinations of drugs in the past few weeks and that it looks like 90% of patients have mild symptoms or completly asymtomatic.
Does this need to be a long drawn out event ie: heard 6 months mentioned.
Controlling the death rate imo is the most important factor.
If we see this flatten oven the next few days like I think & hope.
Is there an argument to let the herd get the virus given it mild/asymtomatic nature for most, while continuing the lockdown on the vulnerable of society, perhaps employing those with antibodies to care and offer services. 
God knows how many people may already be carrying anti bodies. Also, I've read that the virus is mutating slowly so a vaccine may be available much earlier than anticipated.


----------



## sptrawler (27 March 2020)

satanoperca said:


> https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...stralian-assets-20200326-p54e3z.html#comments
> 
> All part of the plan.



There go the toilet paper manufacturers. Lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> The sad reality of hindsight is that while we were concentrating on the "known' - ie Wuhan - we completely dropped the ball on arrivals from all other countries.




If we'd firmly slammed the door shut on all arrivals from China, or anyone who had been to China in the past month, the moment Wuhan was locked down then we almost certainly wouldn't have this disaster that's unfolding right now.

Australia has been trapped basically. Far too dependent on a single foreign country and the trade in coal, gas, iron and "education" and unable to stand up for itself.

Solution = diversity. We need a much broader economic base and we need a much broader range of countries we trade with. And there's nothing wrong with reasonable amounts of industry protection as a balance to those who cheat via low wages, ongoing human rights abuses, currency manipulation and so on.

In the long term we'll almost certainly see at least some move toward greater local reliance after the virus itself is sorted so invest with that in mind.


----------



## jbocker (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> I should have said *OVERNIGHT*.
> Trump can now say he leads China in something.
> The issue will be if US markets react tonight our time to a clear failure of policy to quash COVID-19 spread.  By then there will be even more damning statistics.



From the great thread service by @bigdog _NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:_' along with great commentary we learn 3 straight days of gains! I am astounded by this the USA, are heading for  horrendously cataclysmic numbers of deaths, which surely will smash the market again. I cannot understand that lack of foresight when these statistics are so easily for-seeable. Soon, maybe even Mondays numbers, may prove to be the worst in history. USA will be overtaking China Italy numbers at an unbelievable rate.


----------



## Knobby22 (27 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> From the great thread service by @bigdog _NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:_' along with great commentary we learn 3 straight days of gains! I am astounded by this the USA, are heading for  horrendously cataclysmic numbers of deaths, which surely will smash the market again. I cannot understand that lack of foresight when these statistics are so easily for-seeable. Soon, maybe even Mondays numbers, may prove to be the worst in history. USA will be overtaking China Italy numbers at an unbelievable rate.




Nah, Trumps doing great! America is showing the world how to do handle it! Even in Australia on the Trump thread you have people saying this.
And anyway, it's all China's fault and; as some in the USA media have stated; older people should be willing to risk losing their life to help the USA economy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> I am astounded by this the USA, are heading for horrendously cataclysmic numbers of deaths, which surely will smash the market again. I cannot understand that lack of foresight when these statistics are so easily for-seeable.



I've bought some shares but the intent is to trade the bounce.

That said, I intentionally only bought things I'd be happy to hold long term just in case - never know how things could unfold.


----------



## spooly74 (27 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Nah, Trumps doing great! America is showing the world how to do handle it! Even in Australia on the Trump thread you have people saying this.



Noting sarcasim aside  Being the 1st to shut down travel from China deserves credit, no matter your opinion of the man. Possibly saved thousands.



Knobby22 said:


> And anyway, it's all China's fault and; as some in the USA media have stated; older people should be willing to risk losing their life to help the USA economy.



You can't be serious, Knobby, have you seen this? 
Source?


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If we'd firmly slammed the door shut on all arrivals from China, or anyone who had been to China in the past month, the moment Wuhan was locked down then we almost certainly wouldn't have this disaster that's unfolding right now.



My suspicion is that even in January it would have been too late.
Moreover, based on infection rates and sheer international travel numbers, the third iteration is likely to have had no knowledge of a person who has travelled to China (or Korea, or Thailand) and was the carrier.
We did not put in place (any or) reasonable detection measures at our points of entry, and we still do not have an inadequate testing regime.

My personal view is that our likely saviour in months to come will not be in a vaccine but, instead, via antibody self testing kits that should be available.  I know a manufacturer in Ireland was shipping such kits internationally a fortnight ago, so there is no secret to what is involved.  Seems just a matter of getting a product approved locally and mass production put in place.
In the meantime any number of existing drugs may be found effective in treating serious cases of COVID-19 such that it's death rate falls in line with that of the common flu.


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed that Qld seems somewhat less enthusiastic than others at least thus far.



on Queensland situation regarding schools:
I quote:
_Schools in Queensland will have no students from Monday - except for the children who do attend - as fears of a major cluster of coronavirus cases grow._
Really, I know I am not English as first language but what the hell is this type of recommendation?
They won't have students, just children ROL
I know they mean: closed unless you have no choice and we provide childcare support but still..
These are the people I have to trust to lead us across these tumultuous times, as the Left so proudly used to say:
Do not blame me, I did not vote for her


----------



## basilio (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> on Queensland situation regarding schools:
> I quote:
> _Schools in Queensland will have no students from Monday - except for the children who do attend - as fears of a major cluster of coronavirus cases grow._
> Really, I know I am not English as first language but what the hell is this type of recommendation?
> ...




It does make sense from a teaching and bigger picture POV.
It is impossible for many health workers to go to work if they have school age children.  You can't leave them at home. You can't ask their grandparents to mind them.

So much smaller numbers of children at school can be given far more space and particular programs suited to the situation.  Not ideal but workable.

________________________________________________________
The overall advice is to keep people as isolated as possible. But no-one believes you can do for everyone all the time. So the objective is to minimise interaction and keep it as safe as possible. That can work with a far smaller number of children in a school.


----------



## Knobby22 (27 March 2020)

spooly74 said:


> Noting sarcasim aside  Being the 1st to shut down travel from China deserves credit, no matter your opinion of the man. Possibly saved thousands.
> 
> 
> You can't be serious, Knobby, have you seen this?
> Source?




Singapore was first not USA.

Two different examples, you can search for others:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fox-news-contributor-on-putting-lives-of-old-people-at-risk-to-save-the-economy-its-an-entirely-reasonable-viewpoint-2020-03-25

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-texas-official-suggests-elderly-willing-die-economy/2905990001/


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Nah, Trumps doing great! America is showing the world how to do handle it! Even in Australia on the Trump thread you have people saying this.
> And anyway, it's all China's fault and; as some in the USA media have stated; older people should be willing to risk losing their life to help the USA economy.



No one said trump is doing a good job. Just that certain policies of his are commonsense. Everywhere is reliant to on China. And it's not a good thing. 

He has made the right moves in certain areas and completely bombed in others.


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Singapore was first not USA.
> 
> Two different examples, you can search for others:
> 
> ...



Texans don't like being told what to do, or shy away from a fight.


----------



## IFocus (27 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Texans don't like being told what to do, or shy away from a fight.





Or competing for Darwin awards.........


----------



## spooly74 (27 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> He was nearly the last to shut down trade with China. You obviously believe what he says.
> We in Australia were earlier.




Obviously. Believe. What. He. Says.  Please.

US shut down *travel* from China on Feb 1st
Australia shut down *travel* from China on Feb 1st



Knobby22 said:


> Anyway two different examples, you can search for others:
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fox-news-contributor-on-putting-lives-of-old-people-at-risk-to-save-the-economy-its-an-entirely-reasonable-viewpoint-2020-03-25
> 
> https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-texas-official-suggests-elderly-willing-die-economy/2905990001/




Thank you.


----------



## ducati916 (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> In the meantime any number of existing drugs may be found effective in treating serious cases of COVID-19 such that it's death rate falls in line with that of the common flu.




Well this is what I use. Once (in another life) I used to prescribe this for relevant viral infections. Worked well. Have a read of the research and you may think it worth a try.

jog on
duc


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Well this is what I use. Once (in another life) I used to prescribe this for relevant viral infections. Worked well. Have a read of the research and you may think it worth a try.
> 
> jog on
> duc




Dude you are the funniest person on this forum by far.

First was CZZ, the investment that went from $2 to $20 that you tried to convince everyone was a bad investment.

Then you tried to prove your superior methodology with AMZA, which certainly has wowed us all with its -75% total return since then.

I'll skip the details of the hilarious back and forth you are having in the gold thread and your comments about VIX being a "lagging indicator".

Now to top it off, best of all you're here telling us that you used to *prescribe *St Johns Wort for viral infections, something you can buy in the quack supplements aisle at Woolies, and your supporting document is an upside down scanned PDF 

I'm not sure we as a species deserve this comedy gold.


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Dude you are the funniest person on this forum by far.
> 
> First was CZZ, the investment that went from $2 to $20 that you tried to convince everyone was a bad investment.
> 
> ...



This is a very unneeded personal attack: why?
Maybe you are stressed, lost money, have to WFH with the Wiggles in background but i am probably not the only one to think it is quite unwanted as a post.
As for CZZ, it could have been a great investment and paid for some members Tesla but it has been proven as a giant fraud buying cheap real Australian honey here and selling it back at a premium in China, while selling as Australian honey a mix containing chinese imports and rice sugar.
If this is the type of company to celebrate no thanks.

Before CoViD19, China sent us "CZZ honey"
Be nice, no-one knows who will be in ICU next or worst will need but miss one bed there


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> This is a very unneeded personal attack: why?
> Maybe you are stressed, lost money, have to WFH with the Wiggles in background but i am probably not the only one to think it is quite unwanted as a post.
> As for CZZ, it could have been a great investment and paid for some members Tesla but it has been proven as a giant fraud buying cheap real Australian honey here and selling it back at a premium in China, while selling as Australian honey a mix containing chinese imports and rice sugar.
> If this is the type of company to celebrate no thanks.
> ...




So you think it's fine for someone to recommend people take St Johns Wort as a treatment for COVID-19?


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> So you think it's fine for someone to recommend people take St Johns Wort as a treatment for COVID-19?



Not really my type of medicine but with placebo effect, who knows...
It is more the way you targeted him cf investments etc
Actually, i d prefer to take medical advice from a medic than a wall street guru..so my point...
Anyway, you can..i could too,  be kinder and maybe target the advice not the person


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> It is more the way you targeted him cf investments etc




Go have a read through the relevant threads.


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Go have a read through the relevant threads.



Not going to go to a battle defending someone else; in this thread, you may disagree on the so called advice, I doubt we will be cured by a herbal tea myself, but fight the idea, not the person;
And if you can not stand the person, put it on ignore and you will feel better.
I did that with a couple of our more obnoxious..personal taste... persons
Last post from me about this, no one can force you..well I can not, so up to you to see what is both fair and relevant
Cheers
And while I might disagree with some of your ideas, opinion, etc (fair I think) i fully respect some of your knowledge overall and contributions in the market areas where I am but a novice


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

back to the thread:
is this as per GFC a sign of time to come:
from Rabobank


----------



## satanoperca (27 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Well this is what I use. Once (in another life) I used to prescribe this for relevant viral infections. Worked well. Have a read of the research and you may think it worth a try.
> 
> jog on
> duc



I'm in defence to Ducati, he/she did not say it was a cure, but rather it might prevent or reduce the risk of viral infections.

Nothing is guaranteed in life, but I was elderly and there was a small chance SW would reduce the chance of dying by 10%, I would consider it.


----------



## hja (27 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> back to the thread:
> is this as per GFC a sign of time to come:
> from Rabobank
> View attachment 101739



Won't the money become like Monopoly notes if everyone's (say 1 million people are) getting more and more of it printed and handed out by the government?


----------



## ducati916 (27 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> 1. Dude you are the funniest person on this forum by far.
> 
> 2. First was CZZ, the investment that went from $2 to $20 that you tried to convince everyone was a bad investment.
> 
> ...




1. I'm guessing that this is derogatory.

2. For those that want to read the thread it is available. But in brief, I stand by my analysis. If you wish to challenge it, simply go to the thread and post your criticisms/refutations, I'll play.

3. Well the time frame was for 5 yrs. We are at what time frame?

4. Again, re. gold, post your own criticisms/analysis, again, I'll play.

5. Did you read the research. Of course you did: what then do you disagree with? Your evidence? I'll post if needed, the relevant medical research papers, although they already summarised in the monograph. But, in any case, you are free to reject it ad hoc, I have no issues with that at all.

6. Again, I'm assuming derogatory. Which is fine, I have a thick skin.

jog on
duc


----------



## againsthegrain (27 March 2020)

hja said:


> Won't the money become like Monopoly notes if everyone's (say 1 million people are) getting more and more of it printed and handed out by the government?




This is where the rba might be in a really tough spot and think about putting up the rates in say 1-2 yrs time when things stabilise a bit. After all their job is to look after the economy and inflation not the housing market. But who knows thighs are moving fast and in unknown directions


----------



## rederob (27 March 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> But who knows *thighs *are moving fast and in unknown directions



Is that a dance routine you are banking on?


----------



## againsthegrain (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Is that a dance routine you are banking on?




yeah!  for those holding cash naturally, and who wants to pay 10 bux for bananas on Monday then 15 by Friday?


----------



## qldfrog (27 March 2020)

hja said:


> Won't the money become like Monopoly notes if everyone's (say 1 million people are) getting more and more of it printed and handed out by the government?



That is one way, inflation or real value decrease of assets inc work in Australia thru AUD value plunge

People always think of inflation as I earn more but prices increase,
A crazy idea to start discussion as we are a minor player in the economy
In Australia, we could have a status quo where most of assets crashes matching a currency crash, you are paid the same, the house price, rates, etc stay the same but the aussie dollar goes down, only a few things like gold , oil increase but as we are in a global crash, oil in AUD just does not decrease as much as for a US customer and coal iron prices remain kind of constant in AUD, we just get all poorer, a socialist heaven...
Obviously, as we import a lot, we would need similar trend in imports to avoid inflation here but China being our key import/export partner, they might de-valuate the Yuan to catch disappearing market so not impossible...
Is this a possible scenario, inflation in disguise via a currency and overall asset devaluation
Anyway, I have no clue and I doubt many have a clue: this is quite unparalleled and we are still a few weeks away from real medical challenges here


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 March 2020)

got the _flation _part right. So far money printing has led to deflation. QE'd


----------



## hja (27 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Is that a dance routine you are banking on?



Yeah it's from that Shakira song: thighs don't lie
https://i.redd.it/068hzjo99b421.jpg


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2020)

Latest news of the impact is that Myer are closing all stores nationally and standing down 10,000 staff.

Hairdressing chain Just Cuts is also closing until further notice. Most of these are franchised operations apparently but according to media reports there's about 2500 staff affected between them all.

One issue I see is that we're rapidly approaching a point of many products not being available from any physical store. Excluding things like food, if you needed a new washing machine or phone then a point is very rapidly approaching where your option is to buy a second hand one from whoever or go without.


----------



## jbocker (27 March 2020)

Bunnings is not closing. It will continue to supply cheap overseas rubbish, as lots of home isolation means jobs get done around the house. 
If there is an area I would like to see return, it is some of the old corner hardware stores with some quality products, but I feel society wont accept that style of shopping again. At lease diminish overseas rubbish and stock some Aussie made quality. I have seen alternative stores but they are very scarce and quite range limited.


----------



## againsthegrain (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Latest news of the impact is that Myer are closing all stores nationally and standing down 10,000 staff.
> 
> Hairdressing chain Just Cuts is also closing until further notice. Most of these are franchised operations apparently but according to media reports there's about 2500 staff affected between them all.
> 
> One issue I see is that we're rapidly approaching a point of many products not being available from any physical store. Excluding things like food, if you needed a new washing machine or phone then a point is very rapidly approaching where your option is to buy a second hand one from whoever or go without.




This might actually bring back the demand for repair shops and businesses.  This could be a good thing in disguise.  The last 15 years nobody gets a TV repaired, fridge washing machine less and less because cheaper to buy a new one that lasts 3 years or warranty runs out.

1. local businesses hiring locals to repair appliances
2. Higher quality control with products using more local made components


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> One issue I see is that we're rapidly approaching a point of many products not being available from any physical store. Excluding things like food, if you needed a new washing machine or phone then a point is very rapidly approaching where your option is to buy a second hand one from whoever or go without.



The winners and losers are going to be capricious, almost arbitrary. Some say the preppers had it right (but why the focus on toilet paper?)

Bought a (item) last year, and you're fine; delayed till now, and whoops, tough luck
Went on a holiday last year, wonderful; sailed on a cruise in March.. like Lotto, only with downside
Let alone the sequencing; only just in workforce and casual.. Ouch. Work in a niche (remote telecoms, for eg) and yor're run into the ground


----------



## Movendi (27 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> got the _flation _part right. So far money printing has led to deflation. QE'd



Can you explain why this would cause deflation rather than inflation?


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Latest news of the impact is that Myer are closing all stores nationally and standing down 10,000 staff.
> 
> Hairdressing chain Just Cuts is also closing until further notice. Most of these are franchised operations apparently but according to media reports there's about 2500 staff affected between them all.
> 
> One issue I see is that we're rapidly approaching a point of many products not being available from any physical store. Excluding things like food, if you needed a new washing machine or phone then a point is very rapidly approaching where your option is to buy a second hand one from whoever or go without.



A few days ago, the bloke over the road who wholesales furniture, said Hardly Normal had run out of freesers, don't know if it is local or more wide spread.
(don't mention the spelling of freeser, the bloody keyboard has just stuffed up). Shame it is a laptop.


----------



## hja (28 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A few days ago, the bloke over the road who wholesales furniture, said Hardly Normal had run out of freesers, don't know if it is local or more wide spread.
> (don't mention the spelling of freeser, the bloody keyboard has just stuffed up). Shame it is a laptop.



Yes and I believe it's spelt fleeser in the Daigou community. At least I've heard that they had contributed to the shortage. If you're able to decipher the characters through google, you might like to check on Alibaba and other such exchange sites for confirmation.


----------



## barney (28 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> (don't mention the spelling of freeser, the bloody keyboard has just stuffed up)




Lol … Bugger …. Try 'key mapper' or similar perhaps??
https://www.raymond.cc/blog/make-certain-keys-on-a-keyboard-to-act-like-other-keys/

Or use the 2 key maybe ... know one will even notice ... Free2er, fro2en .. ok, maybe they will notice


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> got the _flation _part right. So far money printing has led to deflation. QE'd



Yes but now it is going to be unprecedented, gfc looking like a joke, and obviously we will be hit harder then others with our unique link to the chinese economy
I do not see how our aud could sustain, and with no jobs but welfare direct or indirect, income can not catch up so inflation would be unsustainable
So reduced aud, more assets sold to China..mines, agricultural land and debt boom.. anyway would not be surprised to see something specific to Australia


----------



## frugal.rock (28 March 2020)

I can imagine all the TP and meat hoarders got home and then realised that they needed extra ice box storage, then ran out and bought a fresia! haha.
@sptrawler is the laptop a Toshiba per chance? 
F.Rock


----------



## Skate (28 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> the bloody keyboard has just stuffed up). Shame it is a laptop.




@sptrawler, you are a prolific poster & your keyboard gets a good workout. It might be the time to upgrade to a WiFi keyboard & mouse (connect your laptop to an external monitor for the full experience)

I read all your posts so it in my interest to suggest the above. Without you & a handful of other posters this community would die a slow death. 

Skate.


----------



## IFocus (28 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A few days ago, the bloke over the road who wholesales furniture, said Hardly Normal had run out of freesers, don't know if it is local or more wide spread.
> (don't mention the spelling of freeser, the bloody keyboard has just stuffed up). Shame it is a laptop.




Bit surprised its not the "F" key that failed I have noticed usually after a few reds its gets a heavy work out


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Bit surprised its not the "F" key that failed I have noticed usually after a few reds its gets a heavy work out



Im thinking it might have happened, by spilling red on the keyboard.
Things are getting so tight here, I have had to move down to the goon bag.
Mandurah looks like a ghost town at the moment.


----------



## rnr (28 March 2020)

@sptrawler 
A suggested solution to the spillage problem.


----------



## Belli (28 March 2020)

Not sure where my comment fits so I'll put it here as it is tangential to some extent.

Had a call from a friend who is ***ting bricks from the sound of it.  Issue is they went guarantor for their daughter and son-in-law's home loan and both of them are now out of work.  Probably thought they were safe occupations originally as one was a commercial pilot and the other a pretty well paid sales manager.

Could only offer sympathies as I have not got any idea of what will occur.  So much for the bank of Mum and Dad though.  I have refused requests from one of my kids to be guarantor on the basis if the bank requires it then the risk is way up the curve and I'm not prepared to take on the bank's risk.  Caused disharmony and extreme resentment but that's the way it is.  Haven't heard from that one for quite some time unsurprisingly.


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2020)

You are spot on IMO belli, only lend or underwrite to family, what you are prepared to lose.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 March 2020)

the difference a month makes

https://www.flightradar24.com


----------



## banco (28 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A few days ago, the bloke over the road who wholesales furniture, said Hardly Normal had run out of freesers, don't know if it is local or more wide spread.
> (don't mention the spelling of freeser, the bloody keyboard has just stuffed up). Shame it is a laptop.




It's everywhere. People are putting freezers and extra fridges in their living rooms.


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2020)

banco said:


> It's everywhere. People are putting freezers and extra fridges in their living rooms.



People have lost the plot.


----------



## Country Lad (28 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> People have lost the plot.




A psychologist explained it as people want to feel they have some control and have taken decisive action, hence the toilet paper, hand sanitiser, freezers and all that goes into them.  Makes them feel they have done something to take control.

The result of course is something like in the year 2050, young Joe is finally using the last of the toilet paper his grandparents bought in 2020.


----------



## IFocus (28 March 2020)

Mish talks

This caught my eye

"Managing earnings ends. Corporate buybacks are gone. That's why we won't get back to the old highs."



https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econ...hat-s-next-for-america--TaEWIIxf0CmGnNCYxgTHA


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2020)

IFocus said:


> Mish talks
> 
> This caught my eye
> 
> ...



Also why we will probably have to just keep increasing taxes, untill everyone has nothing and then we can all work for the Chinese companies that buy the cheap Australian companies.
Then the Chinese can sort out our economy, that will work well for us.
Unless the western governments sort out the rapid rise of emeging economies, we will be in the position the third world economies were in, before the Lima agreement in the 1970s.
Except I dont think they will be as benevolent.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 March 2020)

An array of information, from the Financial Times and updated frequently. Transmission rates of course but also economic. Plus thought pieces

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Free access. No paywall


----------



## rederob (28 March 2020)

Lockdowns work.
Why has Australia been so slow?



Only the USA's death rate is showing an increasing trend.  Maybe another record achievement to hand to Trump as it truly shows his greatness.


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> An array of information, from the Financial Times and updated frequently. Transmission rates of course but also economic. Plus thought pieces
> 
> https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
> 
> Free access. No paywall



Thanks a lot indeed one of the best site i have seen


----------



## Knobby22 (28 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Lockdowns work.
> Why has Australia been so slow?
> 
> 
> ...



With Australia it's hard to get us to toe the line and a lot of the infection were from that cruise ship, the ten Americans in SA,  and that useless Toorak doctor.

We want to keep some business going as long as reasonable but now we have sealed the borders, a full lockdown isn't far away. Fingers crossed we can do a South Korea.


----------



## ducati916 (29 March 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Well this is what I use. Once (in another life) I used to prescribe this for relevant viral infections. Worked well. Have a read of the research and you may think it worth a try.
> 
> jog on
> duc





So the effective transmission involves a spike protein binding to ACE2 receptors on the human cell. Then an enzyme, TMPRSS2 effects entry into the host cell. The virion is now within the cell. The viron releases its RNA.

So (if you download the pfdf) St Johns Wort is effective at interfering at the RNA stage. Most of the completed research was done on the HIV viron, which is also an enveloped (within the host cell) virion.

There is substantial lay person websites that provide basic information on SJW and some contraindications to use.

jog on
duc


----------



## jbocker (29 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Lockdowns work.
> Why has Australia been so slow?
> 
> 
> ...



Will this eventually map Australia rederob? It is a great comparison on how nations are tracking, very difficult compare using most graphs, this log graph shows it well.


----------



## rederob (29 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Will this eventually map Australia rederob? It is a great comparison on how nations are tracking, very difficult compare using most graphs, this log graph shows it well.



Norway and Ireland are not yet on it, and both have had more deaths, so maybe when there's enough space to clearly identify more countries they will.
Let's not be in a hurry to appear!


----------



## SirRumpole (29 March 2020)

How about Russia ? I can' see any Eastern European countries on the list.

India's figures are a bit suspect I reckon. With their population and minimal health facilities they are either very lucky or not being honest.


----------



## rederob (29 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How about Russia ? I can' see any Eastern European countries on the list.
> India's figures are a bit suspect I reckon. With their population and minimal health facilities they are either very lucky or not being honest.



Russia has not yet reported 10 dead, so cannot yet appear.
I agree it's a chart focusing on Europe and North America, but reasonable due to readership of the Financial Times.
I cannot imagine any nation is keen to show a high death rate, and maybe an underlying illness is being recorded as the principal cause in some cases (wherever a nation feels it has that option available ).


----------



## macca (29 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How about Russia ? I can' see any Eastern European countries on the list.
> 
> India's figures are a bit suspect I reckon. With their population and minimal health facilities they are either very lucky or not being honest.




I have thought of that as well but I suppose they have so many other bugs in India that by comparison this one is not strong enough to do severe damage.

I also thought that the heat may effect the virus, they do say that cold weather suits it which is a worry with our winter around the corner


----------



## SirRumpole (30 March 2020)

macca said:


> I have thought of that as well but I suppose they have so many other bugs in India that by comparison this one is not strong enough to do severe damage.
> 
> I also thought that the heat may effect the virus, they do say that cold weather suits it which is a worry with our winter around the corner




Curry will kill anything they say.


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

An analysis of where the current  COVID 19 crisis taking us. Not the time to jump back into markets.

*Why stocks have further to fall amid the coronavirus pandemic*
By Ian Verrender

If ever you needed convincing that financial markets have become completely divorced from reality, just look at the events of last week.

Over the course of four days, until Friday, Wall Street went on a tear, notching up huge gains which by the end of Thursday's session put it more than 20 per cent ahead of where it began the week.

Technically, that's what traders call a bull market, a sign that the economy is returning to strength and company earnings and, hence, share prices are in recovery.

The performance, based on the hope that central banks and government stimulus would insulate financial markets from a global economic downturn, was more BS than bull.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-30/why-stocks-have-further-to-fall-coronavirus-covid-19/12101376


----------



## lusk (30 March 2020)

basilio said:


> An analysis of where the current  COVID 19 crisis taking us. Not the time to jump back into markets.
> 
> Technically, that's what traders call a bull market, a sign that the economy is returning to strength and company earnings and, hence, share prices are in recovery.




Another trading myth, 20% drop = bear market. Who decided 20%? why not 25%, 15%???


----------



## jbocker (30 March 2020)

Chatting over the fence to another human on the weekend and she was saying her hubby (FIFO) is maybe going to be away on 3 month stints with 14 day isolations prior to going to site. 
They have a 12month old baby. Much care will be required to work with and deal with emotional stress.
Will we see the return of mining towns so that immediate families can be together?


----------



## moXJO (30 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Chatting over the fence to another human on the weekend and she was saying her hubby (FIFO) is maybe going to be away on 3 month stints with 14 day isolations prior to going to site.
> They have a 12month old baby. Much care will be required to work with and deal with emotional stress.
> Will we see the return of mining towns so that immediate families can be together?



I wonder if he is paid for the 14 days in quarantine?


----------



## jbocker (30 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I wonder if he is paid for the 14 days in quarantine?



Didn't get that detail. 
She was thankful that he was still working, and was quite accepting that this is perhaps going to be how it is. My comment is around the potential FIFO employment style transitioning back to Mining towns. Ultimately the desire to be in company of your family must be weighed against what you earn.


----------



## Country Lad (30 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> ............then we can all work for the Chinese companies that buy the cheap Australian companies.............




Good to see that the government has reduced the ceiling of foreign takeovers from $1.2 billion to nil.  Now all we need is for FIRB to have some backbone and start rejecting any takeover proposals.

Decision probably stems from Risland Australia sending many tonnes of Australian medical supplies to China in the early day of the pandemic.  Probably a reason we are short now.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/sec...edical-supplies-to-china-20200326-p54e8n.html


----------



## jbocker (30 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Didn't get that detail.
> She was thankful that he was still working, and was quite accepting that this is perhaps going to be how it is. My comment is around the potential FIFO employment style transitioning back to Mining towns. Ultimately the desire to be in company of your family must be weighed against what you earn.




Ok just chatted some more with the hubby. Still in the planning, but likely to be two or three teams working in shifts and living in a 'commune' (my words) on site keeping the place running. This will be in place till a vaccine is available and some rotation can be safely introduced. The 14 day isolation will be shortened on eventual swap outs if and when better testing is available.  Even if the family is local, you wont be going home. In the meantime all others are out.
If these are not in place it could mean no power for the city.
I would guess a lot of this sort of thing is being put in place elsewhere.


----------



## Sdajii (30 March 2020)

macca said:


> I have thought of that as well but I suppose they have so many other bugs in India that by comparison this one is not strong enough to do severe damage.
> 
> I also thought that the heat may effect the virus, they do say that cold weather suits it which is a worry with our winter around the corner




If you've properly seen India you'll understand that early on this will go unnoticed there. It'll wipe out a small percentage of people in the slums and no one else will notice or care much, including people in the slums (death and disease is just a way of life there, it's already bad enough that extra won't be particularly noticed). The people on the wealthy side of the divide will be more concerned. I can't see a place as chaotic and crowded and dysfunctional as Indian effectively achieving much in the way of quarantine etc. My friends in India I've been speaking to are split between thinking it's a big worry, and.thinking no one in India needs to worry because they have traditional Indian medicine (aruyveda? I can never quite remember) and cow urine (to drink), which they believe protects from literally any disease. I'd probably be concerned for.India if I hadn't already been there, but a place which still has people dying from leprosy, plague etc will function as per usual.

Heat does kill the virus more quickly but is only relevant for things like door knobs, keyboards, ATM buttons, etc. How much of a difference heat makes is difficult to measure, and is not relevant for direct human to human contact, and only partially relevant for things like pens etc. Direct contact w
might be the majority of the spread anyway.


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

*Good analysis.*

*How the Covid-19 recession could become a depression*
Coronavirus is a global economic catastrophe.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21188...-recession-depression-trump-jobs-unemployment


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

*Federal Government offers $130b in coronavirus wage subsidies for businesses to pay workers*
Businesses will receive a fortnightly wage subsidy up to $1,500 per employee as part of a Federal Government bid to prevent millions of people from losing their jobs to the coronavirus pandemic.
*Key points:*


The Government expects up to 6 million people will access a $1,500 fortnightly wage subsidy
*
The so-called JobKeeper payment is designed to keep people in work

The Government will also lift the means-testing threshold for the partners of JobSeeker recipients
*

*The subsidy is the central plank in a $130 billion economic stimulus package, the third and largest package the Government has announced in response to the coronavirus.*

*Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he expected 6 million Australians would access a so-called JobKeeper payment for the next six months.*

*He said there would be a legal obligation on employers to ensure they passed the full wage subsidy onto employees.*
*https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...sidies-government-businesses-workers/12103108*

I'm trying to understand how this is going to work. 
Lets say you are a hotel, restaurant or retail shop that has been closed down. You have stood down or sacked all your staff because you don't have a business anymore.
Are you supposed to take this government subsidy and give it to all your former employees even though they can't work for you because the business is closed ?  What does the business owner get  to be the administrator ? 
 What safeguards are there in place anyway to ensure the business owner doesn't just pocket most of it and let the staff get some pocket money ? (Be absolutely sure the hospitality trade already does this ..)
 Why will any business currently in operation not immediately shut its doors to qualify for this largesse ?

What will happen to the 20,000 Qantus staff who were stood down ? They are not going back to work in a hurry .

Is this just a way to avoid the official unemployment figures going through the roof ?


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

Does this seem really, really strange ?  
Wrong ?  Inflationery ? Over the top ?

*Workers earning UNDER $1,500 previously will get pay rise*
If you are are a worker who has earned less than $1,500 a fortnight, you are about to get a pay rise (if you are an eligible worker):

*• If you ordinarily receive $1,500 or more in income per fortnight before tax, you will continue to receive your regular income according to the prevailing workplace arrangements. *The JobKeeper payments will subsidise part or all of your income.

• *If you ordinarily receive less than $1,500 in income per fortnight before tax, your employer must pay you, at a minimum, $1,500 per fortnight, before tax.*

*• If you have been stood down, your employer must pay you, at a minimum, $1,500 per fortnight, before tax.*

*• If you were employed on 1 March 2020, subsequently ceased employment and then were re-engaged by the same eligible employer, you will receive, at a minimum, $1,500 per fortnight, before tax.*

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...gatherings-cruise-lockdown-app-latest-updates


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## SirRumpole (30 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I'm trying to understand how this is going to work.




There are always unintended consequences of packages like this. 

Giving money directly to individuals who have been laid off through Newstart seems the fairest things to do. 

Giving businesses breaks on rent, loan repayments and utilities seems the fairest compensation to businesses. 

Damned if you do and damned if you don't in cases like this.


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## basilio (30 March 2020)

More information about the Government proposal to underpin wages and business income.

https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_1.pdf
https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet_Info_for_Employers_0.pdf
https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet_Info_for_Employees_0.pdf


----------



## PZ99 (30 March 2020)

If I had a choice I'd take the wage subsidy over the double dole newstart thingy.

At least you're still in the books and your employer won't need to rehire and retrain.

Don't know why we're doing both? We can't afford both. If there are no jobs to find and you're told to stay at home I don't see why you need nearly 2 newstart payments every week.

This spending is wa-a-a-y over the top. It's the anathema of everything this Govt stands for.

If you want to blow the budget - there's the Greens party. We don't need a govt that's basically a clone of that.


----------



## Knobby22 (30 March 2020)

It will save the banks, hence the huge rises today.


----------



## againsthegrain (30 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It will save the banks, hence the huge rises today.



save the banks and a somewhat controlled deflation of the housing bubble, hopefully doesn't bankrupt the government


----------



## macca (30 March 2020)

PZ99 said:


> If I had a choice I'd take the wage subsidy over the double dole newstart thingy.
> 
> At least you're still in the books and your employer won't need to rehire and retrain.
> 
> ...




Agree, makes a lot more sense to subsidise those who are used to a wage, those on the dole /pension continue to get the same as always


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 March 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It will save the banks, hence the huge rises today.



Good idea. Banks are different.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 March 2020)

Biggest concern I have about payments is that I wonder if this is an attempt to fudge the statistics?

Someone still technically employed and being paid taxpayer funds via their employer but not actually working will be included in the statistics as an unemployed person, right? Or not?

If not then it reeks of politics since that arrangement and being on the dole are much the same in practice. Both involve being paid welfare and not working so my hope is that this isn't an attempt to fudge the figures on a technicality.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Giving money directly to individuals who have been laid off through Newstart seems the fairest things to do.



One thing I do hope comes out of all this is a proper review into the amount paid to the unemployed.

Sure there's a few dole bludgers but from what I've seen the majority of unemployed people will have a go if given a go. It's business which is often the stumbling block there in not being willing to give a job to anyone who hasn't already got a job somewhere else.

So I do hope we see some change in that area both with amounts paid and from business with a change to how people are hired. It's time to bin the BS and give people a go.


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Biggest concern I have about payments is that I wonder if this is an attempt to fudge the statistics?
> 
> Someone still technically employed and being paid taxpayer funds via their employer but not actually working will be included in the statistics as an unemployed person, right? Or not?
> 
> If not then it reeks of politics since that arrangement and being on the dole are much the same in practice. Both involve being paid welfare and not working so my hope is that this isn't an attempt to fudge the figures on a technicality.




Spot on. I can certainly see how "managing" multi millions of people via wage subsidy rather than unemployment benefits will keep the figures looking good.  
This certainly protects the banks, property owners and the housing market. People should now be able to pay rent, house payments and basic bills with reasonable ease.

I  am really wondering how this can translate into other economic activity. No entertainment, travel, retail spending.  What's left are basic bills, perhaps cars ?, and then online expenditure on whatever.


----------



## sptrawler (30 March 2020)

I think these subsidies will be better viewed in hindsight, I really don't know how it will all work and I can't even speculate the weird stuff that will go on.
I think in 6-8 months time, the newspapers will be full of articles about it.
A mate, who is a 60year old brickie, can't wait to get onto it.


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

One point I can't quite see is *"What is in this package for the bosses ?"*
The laudable intention of this Job Savers program is to keep employees linked with business and allow the business to go into hibernation so to speak for 3-6 months.
Meanwhile the "precious" employees are still being paid or largely subsidised by the government.

But will the people who are taking home 300k, (or $3m) plus a year be content with holding an operation that is simply paying essential running costs and  its staff ? Seems very altruistic to me.


----------



## PZ99 (30 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Biggest concern I have is that I wonder if this is an attempt to fudge the statistics?
> 
> Someone still technically employed and being paid taxpayer funds via their employer but not actually working will be included in the statistics as an unemployed person, right? Or not?



Probably not. As a worker you are basically on unpaid leave so technically not unemployed.
Your status as unemployed isn't determined by a Govt handout. If it was, we'd probably be 20% unemployed given that we are a welfare state already  



Smurf1976 said:


> If not then it reeks of politics since that arrangement and being on the dole are much the same in practice. Both involve being paid welfare and not working so my hope is that this isn't an attempt to fudge the figures on a technicality.




I think the wage subsidy could've been handled by the ATO - simply use last years' tax return to determine your eligibility and receive a credit in your bank account like you normally do with a refund. No need to violate the 1 meter rule by queuing up like packed sardines at centrelink.

When it's over you go back to work and be happy. (I'll be curious how they declare it to be over - OZ is a big diverse place so it won't be a uniform event)

Fudging the figures is a very flexible term. Any govt spending is added to GDP so you could say the Rudd govt avoided a recession simply because they spent a truckload of money. They also ran up a fairly large debt which has never been mitigated because we've never had a budget surplus since. I think it topped out at around $200b after 6 years.

These programs eclipse that in one go. You can imagine what's going to happen if we add this and the lost tax revenue to all that accumulated debt.

It means every future govt will be permanently hamstrung and will never be able to govern in their own right. Inter generational theft at its very finest. Forget about OK boomer


----------



## basilio (30 March 2020)

I reckon one certain loss from the budget will  be the third tier of tax reforms promised by the Liberals.
Absolutely no way these can ever see the light of day.

On the big picture I think there will have to be some amazing budgeting to handle the $300plus billion expenditure  increase and collapse of income. This will be forecast in the October budget.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 March 2020)

jbocker said:


> Still in the planning, but likely to be two or three teams working in shifts and living in a 'commune' (my words) on site keeping the place running. This will be in place till a vaccine is available and some rotation can be safely introduced. The 14 day isolation will be shortened on eventual swap outs if and when better testing is available. Even if the family is local, you wont be going home. In the meantime all others are out.




There's quite a few places doing variants of that yes. 

Essential industry (power etc) and a few manufacturing plants etc too.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 March 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Probably not. As a worker you are basically on unpaid leave so technically not unemployed.



I suspect that's the case.

I'd much rather know the facts in any situation though no matter how painful. If the choice is 5% officially unemployed and 20% "hidden" unemployed then I'm the sort of person who calls it as it is and says well that's 25% unemployed then. Etc. I'd rather see the blunt truth and have everyone understand that's the reality than live in a delusion.


----------



## PZ99 (30 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I suspect that's the case.
> 
> I'd much rather know the facts in any situation though no matter how painful. If the choice is 5% officially unemployed and 20% "hidden" unemployed then I'm the sort of person who calls it as it is and says well that's 25% unemployed then. Etc. I'd rather see the blunt truth and have everyone understand that's the reality than live in a delusion.



Agreed. However for the figure to be worth anything the data has to be derived the same way as other countries do for the sake of comparison. China of course will report zero unemployment 

Another method would be to take the total of newstart payments from the budget and report it as a % of GDP. That would be fun.


----------



## SirRumpole (30 March 2020)

basilio said:


> I reckon one certain loss from the budget will  be the third tier of tax reforms promised by the Liberals.
> Absolutely no way these can ever see the light of day.
> 
> On the big picture I think there will have to be some amazing budgeting to handle the $300plus billion expenditure  increase and collapse of income. This will be forecast in the October budget.




I doubt if the Libs will do it but I think the only reasonable source of revenue to pay the bills will be some sort of export tax/ resource rent tax on mineral exports and natural gas.

Every other sector of the economy will be stuffed, but these materials are still in demand and will be even more so as world economies crank up again. The measures should be permanent as we have been letting these resources go far too cheaply for too long.


----------



## MrChow (30 March 2020)

Medical team advising Trump becoming more public with their projections perhaps to halt his dangerous optimism (which I shared at some point too).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/whi...dicts-up-to-200000-us-coronavirus-deaths.html

"The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is “very worried about every city in the United States” and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario.

Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths is a worst case scenario if the country did “nothing” to contain the outbreak, but said even “if we do things almost perfectly,” she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths."


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## Smurf1976 (31 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I doubt if the Libs will do it but I think the only reasonable source of revenue to pay the bills will be some sort of export tax/ resource rent tax on mineral exports and natural gas.



The problem I can see is that probably isn't going to be enough $ at any realistic rate of taxation.

Governments are going to be cash strapped for quite some time after all this.


----------



## sptrawler (31 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The problem I can see is that probably isn't going to be enough $ at any realistic rate of taxation.
> 
> Governments are going to be cash strapped for quite some time after all this.



We haven't run a surplus since Howard, when was that about 2007, so how the hell we are going to pay this down will be interesting to say the least.
It wasn't as though, we as a Country have been making money hand over fist, in the first place.
So what come from the ashes of this disaster, will have to be pretty amazing, but I wont be holding my breath.
I just can't see how this isn't going to get a lot worse economically, before it gets better, that's if it ever gets better.
We have been struggling to build a strong economy since the early 1980's, when trariffs were dropped, since then it has been a slow but steady decline.
Now we will have twice as much debt, with less businesses, it doesn't seem to look all that promising.
But you never know, there may be a plan, I hope it doesn't involve pineapples.
I'm also too old, to be towing Chinese tourists around, in a rickshaw.


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## MrChow (31 March 2020)

People really have China on their mind now a days?

98% of overseas investment in Australia is not from China
85% of tourists in Australia are not from China
70% of foreign property investment in Australia is not from China
70% of international students in Australia are not from China


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## Humid (31 March 2020)

MrChow said:


> People really have China on their mind now a days?
> 
> 98% of overseas investment in Australia is not from China
> 85% of tourists in Australia are not from China
> ...




What about a percentage on viruses?
Got one?


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## Humid (31 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> We haven't run a surplus since Howard, when was that about 2007, so how the hell we are going to pay this down will be interesting to say the least.
> It wasn't as though, we as a Country have been making money hand over fist, in the first place.
> So what come from the ashes of this disaster, will have to be pretty amazing, but I wont be holding my breath.
> I just can't see how this isn't going to get a lot worse economically, before it gets better, that's if it ever gets better.
> ...




Firstly, the cited $96 billion dollar Labor debt inherited by Howard in 1996 comprised 

$40 billion of Fraser government debt, carried through the Hawke/Keating period. 


This means that the true Labor debt was $56 billion. 

To pay off this debt the Howard government sold $72 billion of government assets. Hence, the move to “negative debt” or surplus if you like ($72 billion – $56 billion = $16 billion) was not due to “careful and responsible” budget management.


----------



## Humid (31 March 2020)

a list of 75 assets sold under Coalition governments and let me cite just a few substantial ones: Jan 1997 – $1.5 million + annual lease payments Avalon Airport Geelong Ltd; May 1997 – $3.337 billion Melbourne-Brisbane-Perth airports; July 1997 – $408 million DASFLEET; April 1988 – $730 million Phase 2 Airports; March 1999 – $650 million National Transmission Network; November 1999 – $347 million ADI Ltd; June 2002 – $4.2 billion Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport (plus SACL debt of $1.35 billion); November 1997 – $14.2 billion Telstra 1; October 1999 – $16 billion Telstra 2; November 2006  – $15.4 billion Telstra 3


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## PZ99 (31 March 2020)

Expect that list to blow out over the next 20 years. 

Or short circuit the whole thing and just sell off Christmas Island for a trill or two.


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## qldfrog (31 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Biggest concern I have about payments is that I wonder if this is an attempt to fudge the statistics?
> 
> Someone still technically employed and being paid taxpayer funds via their employer but not actually working will be included in the statistics as an unemployed person, right? Or not?
> 
> If not then it reeks of politics since that arrangement and being on the dole are much the same in practice. Both involve being paid welfare and not working so my hope is that this isn't an attempt to fudge the figures on a technicality.



One good thing is that people will be counted..many people wo job do not bother going to centerlink as they will get 0
Unless you are down to your last cent, unemployment benefits will only trigger when you have no money left, or worse for an adult below 22 when their parents have no money left either ...
This was a poverty trap as why would anyone work on a casual job get paid then lose ot all when retrenched before getting help back
This helicopter money would in my opinion be better replaced if we want to go that way by a taxable amount sent to everyone..will be taxed back if you have an income
Look at a couple of investors renting properties as a way of income.now zip income for them as well, how long before they can qualify for anything, no tenant will pay rent anymore for the near future, they will probably still expect repairs and bill paid for rates etc by the landlord...


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## SirRumpole (31 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The problem I can see is that probably isn't going to be enough $ at any realistic rate of taxation.
> 
> Governments are going to be cash strapped for quite some time after all this.




And with no guarantee that it won't all happen agan.


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## Knobby22 (1 April 2020)

From world famous Australian Investor John Hempton of Bronte Capital, experts at investing and shorting.

Coronavirus – getting angry

I am going to give you a few stylised facts about severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and the data.
First – no matter what you say about the Chinese data – and the Chinese data was full of lies at first – China has controlled the outbreak. Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing are all functional mega-cities with no obvious health catastrophes.
The virus has been managed to very low infection rates in Singapore and Taiwan. The numbers (completely real) in Korea show a dramatic slowdown in infection.
Korea has not shut restaurants and the like. The place is functioning. But it has had rigorous quarantine of the infected and very widespread testing. It has complete social buy-in.
China tests your temperature when you get on a bus or a train. It tests you when you go into a classroom, it tests you when you enter a building. There is rigorous and enforced quarantine.
But life goes on – and only a few are dying.
In Singapore nobody has died (yet) though I expect a handful to do so before this over. This is sad (especially for the affected families) but it is not a mega-catastrophe.
There is a story in the Financial Times about a town in the middle of the hot-zone in Italy where they have enforced quarantine and tested everyone in the town twice. They have no cases.
The second stylized fact – mortality differs by availability of hospital beds
A.    Coronavirus provided you do not run out of hospital beds probably has a mortality of about 1 percent. In a population that is very old (such as some areas in Italy) the mortality will be higher. In a population that is very young base mortality should be lower. Also co-morbidities such as smoking matter.
B.    If you run out of ICU beds (ventilators/forced oxygen) every incremental person who needs a ventilator dies. This probably takes your mortality to two percent.
C.     Beyond that a lot of people get a pneumonia that would benefit from supplemental oxygen. If you run out of hospital beds many of these people also die. Your mortality edges higher - but the only working case we have is Iran and you can't trust their data. That said a lot of young people require supplementary oxygen and will die. If you are 40 and you think this does not apply to you then you are wrong. Mass infection may kill you. Iran has said that 15 percent of their dead are below 40.
I will put this in an American perspective with a 70 percent strike rate by the end.
Option A: 2 million dead
Option B: 4 million dead
Option C: maybe 6 million dead.
By contrast, Singapore: a handful of dead.
China has demonstrated this virus can be controlled. The town in Italy has demonstrated it can be controlled even where it is rife.
Life goes on in Singapore. Schools are open. Restaurants are open in Korea.
The right policy is not “herd immunity” or even “flattening the curve”. The right policy is to try to eliminate as many cases as possible and to strictly control and test to keep cases to a bare minimum for maybe 18 months while a vaccine is produced.
The alternative is literally millions of people dying completely unnecessarily.
What is required is a very sharp lockdown to get Ro well below one – and put the virus into exponential decay.
When the numbers are low enough – say six weeks – you let the quarantine off – but with Asian style monitoring. Everyone has their temperature measured regularly. Quarantine is rigid and enforced. You hand your phone over if you are infected and your travel routes and your contacts are bureaucratically reconstructed (as is done in Singapore). And we get through.
And in a while the scientists save us with a vaccine.
The economic costs will be much lower. Indeed life in three months will be approximately normal.
The social costs will be much lower.
Every crisis has its underlying source. And you want to throw as much resources (and then some) close to the source. Everything else is peripheral.
The last crisis was a monetary crisis and it had a monetary solution.
This is a virus crisis and it has a virology solution.
Asian Governments are not inherently superior to ours – but they have done a much better job of it than ours. The end death toll in China (probably much higher than stated) will wind up much smaller than the Western death tolls. I do not understand our idiocy.


----------



## qldfrog (1 April 2020)

In full agreement here,do a mandatory enforced lockdown for 2 weeks 3 at the most ,then release with testing and enforced quarantine of contacts, tracking
In 4 weeks, you get a working economy again 
What i have seen so far is this flatten the curve until everyone get contaminated.dangerous game, even more if no vaccine can work or mutations such that you get reinfected within 6 or 12 months by a variant.
As is, a suicide indeed


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2020)

Goldman Sachs last night revised down their U.S Q2 GDP forecast to MINUS 34%.


----------



## rederob (1 April 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> From world famous Australian Investor John Hempton of Bronte Capital, experts at investing and shorting.
> 
> Coronavirus – getting angry
> 
> ...



The question for us is why we have learned little to nothing!
And as a result have decimated large slabs of our economy.
The Asian examples were available to us before we started to get heavy on social gatherings and closing borders.
Wuhan was unique and needed to be locked down.
Beyond that, as South Korea, Singapore and some other nations have discovered, temperature checking and, separately, virus testing of high risk groups has mitigated spread, as noted in the article.
It also appears the successful nations had solid pandemic strategies ready to roll, having faced SARS and other killer viruses in recent decades.  I cannot see that we have anything in place except a mishmash of make it up as you and hope for the best strategies, differing across State and federal jurisdictions.
An earlier Youtube link from @Joules MM1 gave front line, up to the minute guidance on the "rules" that needed to be followed to feel safe whenever venturing out.  Thanks.  Had I not watched it I would have done a few things poorly on my last toilet paper hunt at the shops (actually it was only for fresh produce).  After watching this wonderful Pulmonary and Critical Care specialist from the Weill Cornell Medical Center I felt somewhat liberated, except that his saviour has been an antibacterial hand sanitizer, and this stuff has been rarer than TP on shop shelves.
The other interesting difference between China's initial response and ours was that they immediately ramped up production of every medical requirement to meet Wuhan needs.  We ramped up an economic solution for a recessionary economy instead.


----------



## lusk (1 April 2020)

rederob said:


> The question for us is why we have learned little to nothing!
> And as a result have decimated large slabs of our economy.
> The Asian examples were available to us before we started to get heavy on social gatherings and closing borders.
> Wuhan was unique and needed to be locked down.




Oh yes the Asian example. That would be the one where they lock down the city but allow
citizens to still travel to other countries?

Didn't 5 million exit Wuhan before being locked down?

I find it very hard to believe its over for China.


----------



## rederob (1 April 2020)

lusk said:


> Oh yes the Asian example. That would be the one where they lock down the city but allow citizens to still travel to other countries?
> 
> Didn't 5 million exit Wuhan before being locked down?
> 
> I find it very hard to believe its over for China.



The lockdown was complete on 23 January, and enforced with an iron glove.
You should be asking why so few countries adopted port of entry health measures until months later.
Lots of things have been obviously successful overseas, but we continued to overlook them.


----------



## satanoperca (1 April 2020)

"However, public health experts at a briefing with the President said even if Americans continue to stay home and limit contact with others, between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths could occur over the next fortnight."

If this becomes a reality, prepare for war.

"The death projections “are very sobering, and when you see 100,000 people, and that’s a minimum,” Trump said. “A hundred thousand is, according to modelling, a very low number.”

From the man himself, who had everything under control 2 weeks ago.

Note : this is playing out exactly as our soon to be masters had planned


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 April 2020)

rederob said:


> It also appears the successful nations had solid pandemic strategies ready to roll



Something I've encountered in a very different (non-medical) context is that there's an Australian cultural thing which basically doesn't like planning for "what if?" scenarios.

I've done a fair bit of that at work in the past and I soon realised it was best to not mention what I was doing to anyone not involved or needing to know and especially not mention it in social conversation outside work. People just don't see the point in planning for something that hasn't happened yet, or at least not recently, and doesn't seem to be an immediate threat.

The point of such planning of course is that when the proverbial does hit the fan well then that's not a good time to be planning anything at all. It's far better to be able to get the previous planning out, which has all the details of everything already in it, and just adapt that to the actual situation being faced.

There's a value in knowing that you can do x, and having a list of everything that needs to happen in order to do it, even if it has never been necessary. It's still worth knowing that it's possible, how it can be done, what it would achieve and so on. It's another tool in the box if needed, a tool that's already been thoroughly investigated and about which there's no uncertainty amid the crisis. It's ready to be applied if needed.

Asian culture seems far more amenable to that sort of planning than Western culture.



rederob said:


> The other interesting difference between China's initial response and ours was that they immediately ramped up production of every medical requirement to meet Wuhan needs. We ramped up an economic solution for a recessionary economy instead.




If you don't own it and have it in your possession then you don't really control it.

Australia's reliance on others to produce practically everything of a manufactured nature has bitten hard on this one and hopefully the lesson is learned. When push comes to shove in an emergency a contract for someone on the other side of the world to supply something is worthless in practice. In the absence of being a serious military or economic power, which Australia most certainly isn't, it doesn't really work and even then it's risky.

The best option is production locally with the ability to ramp up.

The second best option is a great big stockpile. It's finite but at least it's a big stockpile.

Relying on someone else to supply in a crisis? That's gambling basically.......


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2020)

lusk said:


> Oh yes the Asian example. That would be the one where they lock down the city but allow
> citizens to still travel to other countries?
> 
> Didn't 5 million exit Wuhan before being locked down?
> ...



John Hempton made a further blog, 30 March


> I don't easily believe Chinese statistics - especially regarding something as awful as COVID-19. Believe your eyes and common sense over Chinese statistics.
> When China (officially) had 19 deaths they started building massive field hospitals. Believe what you see (the hospitals) but take the 19 deaths as a rather dubious estimate (as per that time).





> By contrast when the Chinese Government say COVID-19 is highly controlled in China you can believe them because there are Westerners and Western companies throughout China and what you can see (Shanghai and Chongqing as functional cities) comports with the statements and the actions of the Chinese Government.
> 
> My general view: watch what the Chinese Government does - rather than what they say.



_his summary:_
You can see the Chinese take COVID-19 very seriously indeed.

 We can conclude that
a. The Chinese have seen the virus. They think they know what it can do. They are scared. Do not believe the Chinese numbers. The truth is much worse. But believe the Chinese actions. They think fear is appropriate.
 b. The Chinese have proven that a super-hard lockdown lasting seven weeks in affected areas 2.5 weeks in Shanghai etc can work. Their major cities have low virus load and major Western cities have not.
 c. The Chinese Government are super-scared of reintroducing it.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/


----------



## rederob (1 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I've encountered in a very different (non-medical) context is that there's an Australian cultural thing which basically doesn't like planning for "what if?" scenarios.
> 
> I've done a fair bit of that at work in the past and I soon realised it was best to not mention what I was doing to anyone not involved or needing to know and especially not mention it in social conversation outside work. People just don't see the point in planning for something that hasn't happened yet, or at least not recently, and doesn't seem to be an immediate threat.
> 
> ...



Points taken.
However, what exactly did our government do to source local manufacturers who could "*adapt*" to produce what we were clearly going to need?
A South Australian company is only now responding to the challenge of producing face masks, and I am sure many other examples could be found.
Quite a few smaller breweries are now refocusing to make hand sanitiser, but it's flying off the shelves at a ridiculous price!  Of all the things I would prefer in the present health crisis is the ability to literally keep my hands clean - there are no pockets in a shroud, so governments handouts are not going to improve my health.
The other galling feature of the government response was to overlook pouring tens of millions into research laboratories, so private donations and crowd funding are instead being relied on.  Sadly we again have science taking a back seat to economics.  Imagine the new job creation that would have been possible in this sector and the emergent need to continue this type of work.
We should respond to a health crisis with health measures, and the resources to facilitate putting them in place.  We appear to forgotten this.
I'm off to fill a prescription at our chemist shortly and their security guard is at the door with a hand sanitising bottle at the ready, ensuring everyone will be safe to handle items.  The nearby shopping centre still has nothing in place for the thousands doing their supermarket shopping each day.
Little wonder we are struggling to get our numbers down.


----------



## lusk (1 April 2020)

rederob said:


> The other galling feature of the government response was to overlook pouring tens of millions into research laboratories, so private donations and crowd funding are instead being relied on.




Because there would be no incentive for a Lab to come up with a vaccine if the government already has given them a handout.

If government money would ensure solutions every invention would come from China.


----------



## rederob (1 April 2020)

lusk said:


> Because there would be no incentive for a Lab to come up with a vaccine if the government already has given them a handout.
> 
> If government money would ensure solutions every invention would come from China.



You really have no idea why people do science, do you!


----------



## SirRumpole (1 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Relying on someone else to supply in a crisis? That's gambling basically.......




A perfect example of the above.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-chinese-ppe-border-force-intercepted/12085908


----------



## sptrawler (1 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A perfect example of the above.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-chinese-ppe-border-force-intercepted/12085908



That is one hell of a wake up call, shonky ppe and test kits, brilliant.

From the article:
_The ABC has learnt that in recent weeks, Australian Border Force (ABF) officers have intercepted several deliveries of personal protective equipment (PPE) that have been found to be counterfeit or otherwise faulty.

One law enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, estimated the ABF had already seized 800,000 masks with a combined value of more than $1.2 million on the Australian market.

Several European governments have rejected Chinese-made equipment designed to combat the coronavirus outbreak in recent days.
Thousands of testing kits and medical masks are below standard or defective, according to authorities in Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands.

The Dutch health ministry announced it had recalled 600,000 face masks on March 28.

The equipment arrived from a Chinese manufacturer on March 21 and had already been distributed to frontline medical teams.

Dutch officials said the masks did not fit and their filters did not work as intended, even though they had a quality certificate.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying has rejected suggestions the country's exports were faulty.

"A large number of Chinese manufacturers are working around the clock to help other countries save lives," she said yesterday_.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 April 2020)

> In just seven days, at 2:30 p.m. on March 27, GM's first prototype mask rolled off the line on equipment that did not exist before.




https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/31/gm-face-masks-ventec-warren/5097793002/

So it took General Motors just a week to get something going with face mask production, a product they've zero prior experience with, and they're now improving the production process and ramping it up.

Hence my point that there's massive value in a country having a diverse manufacturing industry. If you've got factories and you've got a skilled workforce then you can do a lot of things including, among others, hastily building new equipment to make a different product should the need arise. 

Likewise Rolls Royce, Dyson and all sorts of others are having a go at making things needed to deal with this crisis. Things which those companies have zero prior experience at making but they do have a lot of machinery, they do have a lot of skilled workers and so on and that creates the potential to make things happen. 

I do hope Australia learns at least one lesson from all this. Stand on our own two feet.


----------



## jbocker (1 April 2020)

*'Twiggy' Forrest's $160m China deal to bring lifesaving supplies to Australia*
Well we will soon see (?again?) for ourselves if the quality rumours are true. If they are, I wonder what Twiggy might ship back to them wrt Iron Ore.


----------



## barney (1 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> *'Twiggy' Forrest's $160m China deal to bring lifesaving supplies to Australia*
> Well we will soon see (?again?) for ourselves if the quality rumours are true. If they are, I wonder what Twiggy might ship back to them wrt Iron Ore.




Twiggy … one word ... Legend!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2020)

The NBN, which is now available to 95 per cent of Australian households, has seen data demand increase by more than 70 to 80 per cent during daytime hours, compared to figures calculated at the end of February.

Prior to COVID-19, the NBN network processed about 5 terabits per second (Tbps) from 8am to 5pm. On Friday, March 27, data demand peaked at 9.2Tbps.


> "It's a significant lift, [but] it still remains well below the evening busy hours when data consumption on the network is at its highest," an NBN spokesman said. "Between 8pm and 10pm, it has increased by around 15 per cent to 12.4Tbps, as of 9pm on Friday.



*Key points:*

Australians are accessing the internet from home in record numbers, causing up to an 80 per cent increase in demand
Canberra and Melbourne are experiencing the worst average internet congestion, according to a report from Monash University
The NBN says it has been preparing for the increased demand, and its network is "performing well in all cities"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...peeds-covid19-affects-data-downloads/12107334


----------



## IFocus (1 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I've encountered in a very different (non-medical) context is that there's an Australian cultural thing which basically doesn't like planning for "what if?" scenarios.
> 
> I've done a fair bit of that at work in the past and I soon realised it was best to not mention what I was doing to anyone not involved or needing to know and especially not mention it in social conversation outside work. People just don't see the point in planning for something that hasn't happened yet, or at least not recently, and doesn't seem to be an immediate threat.
> 
> ...




Used to do the same "disaster recovery planning" when X blows up what are you going to do and how long is it going to take. One of the few processors where I don't remember failing  to get the funds. 

Also wasn't driven by owners just allowed me to sleep at night


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 April 2020)

IFocus said:


> Used to do the same "disaster recovery planning" when X blows up what are you going to do and how long is it going to take. One of the few processors where I don't remember failing to get the funds.



Yep - management always understands that sort of thing.

For the average person though "cross that bridge when we come to it" seems to be the general approach. Hence certain things never stated publicly - tell someone the plan exists and they assume there's an expected need to use it which would likely start a panic.


----------



## qldfrog (2 April 2020)

Am i the only one to be in disbelief at this battle vs import of Chinese masks
Union refusing to unload some in a port....
Australian standard issues on others
Some are counterfeit..so instead of having a mask marked 3M, it is a M3
Not in Australia..or faulty: aka has not passed the Australian certification..
Back off masks, we are proud aussies and will die standing proud faceless
As a result, no one wear any mask, even masks as basic as dust mask would be useful->
* you can not touch your face
*it will stop a sneeze droplet
And if it is not 99.99% efficient, it is still incredibly efficient as opposed to...nothing
No, you do not want to wear one of those intubing a patient in an ICU but you could use it doing shopping
Especially if everyone is wearing one.
 in a month time, we will send cargo plane to china to get anything we can put our hands on.. France and Italy are doing it
What a shame,a whole society falling under its own mass of regulations on regulations
This crisis is quite a demonstration of all what we have wrong


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Am i the only one to be in disbelief at this battle vs import of Chinese masks



If it was up to me then I'd be making sure everyone knew that we'd been sent crap quality goods but I wouldn't refuse to accept them given the circumstances.

People need to know because some still have their heads in the sand over that sort of issue.

We need to accept them though because we have no sensible choice really.


----------



## qldfrog (2 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> We need to accept them though because we have no sensible choice really



Exactly, beggars can not be choosers
In normal circumstances, sure, but it also means the mask factory takes the time to register certification etc
Most of Chinese massive current production was started from scratch in the last 3 months.Thanks God they did not wait for a certification process....
Next Australia will prevent isolation suits..that i do not see used on the west much, to reduce plastic consumption and favour reused ones
By the way, great move these reused plastic bags in the supermarket, what a massive cause of cross contamination..dumb and dumber
Save the turtle, kill your nana


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> By the way, great move these reused plastic bags in the supermarket, what a massive cause of cross contamination..dumb and dumber



It was always a case of fix one problem but cause another.

Plastic itself wasn't the problem but the idiots who let the bags blow away and end up in the ocean are a problem definitely.

We've fixed that and now have people sitting bags on the counter which have had the dog sleeping on them, been sitting on the ground or are otherwise somewhat filthy. Then you sit your bags on that very same counter......

As with most of this stuff, fixing one problem is not without downsides in other areas.


----------



## matty77 (2 April 2020)

Always worth finding out where those masks you are wearing are from...


----------



## rederob (2 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Always worth finding out where those masks you are wearing are from...



Versus elsewhere...


----------



## Humid (2 April 2020)

https://www.google.com.au/search?cl...ient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#imgrc=hwzxNnFMy1LNJM:

This is how we operate in mining 
PPE is the last line of defence


----------



## rederob (2 April 2020)

Humid said:


> https://www.google.com.au/search?cl...ient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#imgrc=hwzxNnFMy1LNJM:
> 
> This is how we operate in mining
> PPE is the last line of defence



The sad reality is that the principal step of government had been to give control to individuals, and that step is *not *even part of the pyramid to control hazards.
Instead of a motto like "*zero harm*" we have "*hey you, keep out of the way.*"


----------



## qldfrog (2 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Always worth finding out where those masks you are wearing are from...




Real question is that, would that be able to save you and answer is yes
Most of masks are NOT used in a surgery theatre


----------



## basilio (2 April 2020)

From AFR.  A reminder that this totally uncharted territory. 
We will need some radical new solutions.

*There is no investor playbook for this crisis*
COVID-19 is a pandemic without precedent in the modern era. The sooner the finance industry learns to shed its reliance on templates and accept that, the better.

*Robin Wigglesworth*
Apr 2, 2020 – 9.46am
Wall Street loves a good playbook. Perhaps it is the prevalence of former jocks on trading floors, but whenever markets become turbulent they look at what worked in similar crises and dust off the same strategies. But the coronavirus crisis is confounding because it looks at once like a mosaic of many previous crises — and also completely new.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-...stor-playbook-for-this-crisis-20200402-p54gae


----------



## basilio (2 April 2020)

This story was on News Ltd on March 20th (practically 6 months ago in todays news world.)
Certainly highlighted the need to protect industries and businesses over teh next six months.
Wayne Swans interview reinforced that message.

*Coronavirus: Billionaire warns shutdown of world’s economy is coming*
An Australian chairman has warned of a “near total shutdown” of the world’s economy within months as the coronavirus crisis deepens.


----------



## sptrawler (2 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Exactly, beggars can not be choosers
> In normal circumstances, sure, but it also means the mask factory takes the time to register certification etc
> Most of Chinese massive current production was started from scratch in the last 3 months.Thanks God they did not wait for a certification process....
> Next Australia will prevent isolation suits..that i do not see used on the west much, to reduce plastic consumption and favour reused ones
> ...



In reality, we are probably just getting our toilet paper back, in a different form.


----------



## ducati916 (3 April 2020)

From the Economist:




jog on
duc


----------



## sptrawler (3 April 2020)

This shows the problem Australia has with its large manufacturers offshoring.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...sks-by-chinese-companies-20200403-p54gox.html

*Boosting capacity*
In recent times Ansell has been affected by restrictions imposed in Malaysia and Sri Lanka, which had handicapped the movement of packaging materials needed to house Ansell's products.

*Ansell has invested significantly to increase capacity at its operations in China, Malaysia and elsewhere in response to the demand spike*. Mr Nicolin said Ansell's China plant was "running at 30 per cent above the capacity we had before the crisis".


Ansell also makes a range of goods used in the industrial sector, including in automotive and mining. The company's industrial division is seeing reduced demand because of the wide-ranging economic slowdown.

"On the other side we have hospitals and laboratories and so forth where demand is through the roof," Mr Nicolin said.


----------



## barney (3 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> This shows the problem Australia has with its large manufacturers offshoring.
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...sks-by-chinese-companies-20200403-p54gox.html .




Assuming the story is accurate, "Price gouging" by the Chinese in this instance could be considered a criminal offence in my book!  Poor form if true.


----------



## moXJO (4 April 2020)

We seem to be getting on top of the situation.


----------



## qldfrog (4 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> We seem to be getting on top of the situation.



We talk australia as many others are nowhere near on top of the situation...
So what is next?
I linked an article in the thread Post Corona
There is no right answer, just bad or worse...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 April 2020)

Rio Tinto has relocated 700 workers from the eastern states and overseas to Western Australia as it tried to keep its iron ore workforce intact in the face of Premier Mark McGowan’s lockdown of the state.

It is understood the resources giant has also made a one-off $3,000 payment to some workers affected by sweeping roster changes that will see its workforce forced to remain on site for at least 14 days at a time to conform to WA’s coronavirus prevention regime.

Rio joined rival BHP in asking fly-in fly-out workers it had previously flown from eastern states to temporarily relocate to WA for the duration of the crisis, confirming on Monday that about 700 workers had agreed to the move.

The workers will be paid a daily allowance to find their own accommodation, and will be required to conform to the state’s quarantine requirements.


----------



## rederob (6 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Rio Tinto has relocated 700 workers from the eastern states and overseas to Western Australia as it tried to keep its iron ore workforce intact in the face of Premier Mark McGowan’s lockdown of the state.
> 
> It is understood the resources giant has also made a one-off $3,000 payment to some workers affected by sweeping roster changes that will see its workforce forced to remain on site for at least 14 days at a time to conform to WA’s coronavirus prevention regime.
> 
> ...



While it's normal in the early days of ramping up a mine to get the necessary expertise from anywhere and everywhere, as time goes by *most *jobs can be filled by training local workers. 
Last year I sat next to a former coal miner from Queensland's Bowen Basin who had been FIFOing to the Pilbara for a few years. 
What I would have given to get his frequent flyer points!


----------



## sptrawler (6 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It is understood the resources giant has also made a one-off $3,000 payment to some workers affected by sweeping roster changes that will see its workforce forced to remain on site for at least 14 days at a time to conform to WA’s coronavirus prevention regime.
> .




Times have certainly changed, in the 1980's the guys working in remote areas generation projects, worked a five weeks on one week off roster.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Times have certainly changed, in the 1980's the guys working in remote areas generation projects, worked a five weeks on one week off roster.



indeed. My '70s oil rig experience was 2 weeks on / one off.... 12 hr shifts, then crew change took a day each way by DC3 & supply boat (in my time). Young person's game. When we went 2 and 2, yahoo;  then 1 and 1, with helicopter, knock off at 6 am and be on shore by 8am..

Then in 80's, in geophysics, 3 weeks on, 10 days off in Bowen Basin, FIFO from BNE


----------



## qldfrog (6 April 2020)

Note that staying at least 14 days does not mean they stay 14 days, could be 6 weeks for all we know
The way i read it is if i had to go on site from bne to the Pilbara for an installation taking 3 days, it will take me nearly 3 weeks with transport...


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Note that staying at least 14 days does not mean they stay 14 days, could be 6 weeks for all we know



An important point worth highlighting in all of this.

"At least x days" does not mean it ends after that time. It means it does not end before that time and that's a very different thing, in some cases different by orders of magnitude.

There's also the point that with the lack of any relevant precedent, all numbers are at this stage either a measure of what has already occurred or is simply an educated guess regarding the future. It's not as though we're following a script or some directly comparable historical event - the Spanish flu was too long ago, in a world too different, to expect the same economic impacts.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 April 2020)

Thinking about the broader economic impacts, state governments are one that comes to mind.

*Stamp duty is a major revenue source and this will almost certainly decline.

*Payroll tax is another one and that will also decline.

*GST is another major revenue source and as consumers spend less, especially non non-exempt goods and services, will decline.

*To the extent the states own businesses operating on a commercial basis some of those are largely immune or even benefit but some are exposed. Anything involving passenger transport would be an obvious example of one that will see lower revenue for the states where that's in public ownership.

*Likely increased cost of various concessions as the economy deteriorates. 

*Additional direct costs in the health system not fully met by the federal government.

*Possible additional costs relating to law enforcement.

*Cost of any state-based economic stimulus plans of any sort.

All up it would seem to be the perfect storm really so far as state governments are concerned. They're going to be paying this back for a very long time (noting that the states don't have the money printing option).


----------



## fiftyeight (7 April 2020)

Stimulus so far seems to have been targeting food on the table and a roof on over our heads.

Have any govs started talking about actual stimulus to create new jobs, new projects, new money in to the system, not just replacing what was lost?


----------



## jbocker (7 April 2020)

Now this is a huge worry. I would have thought this would be the case in many nations but surprised it is the case in the USA.
_An estimated additional *180 - 195 deaths per day *occurring at home in *New York City* due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. *We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home*. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means* we are undercounting the total number of victims* of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]_
https://virusncov.com/    6 April


----------



## basilio (7 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Now this is a huge worry. I would have thought this would be the case in many nations but surprised it is the case in the USA.
> _An estimated additional *180 - 195 deaths per day *occurring at home in *New York City* due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. *We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home*. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means* we are undercounting the total number of victims* of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]_
> https://virusncov.com/    6 April




Not surprising at all. The official deaths were always going to be the ones counted in hospitals.  There will be scores if not hundreds of deaths in nursing homes that won't be counted yet. They may well be later on and someone needs to note  the source those upturns in reported deaths to let people no these are "old deaths" not new ones.

Similarly deaths at home won't be recorded yet and in a number of cases may not be identified as being caused by the virus.
*In the US (and elsewhere)  this will be particularly significant when there is spread of the infection in areas currently still not closed down.*

Across the world the true impact of Covid 19 is under reported. This will be particularly the case in  rural and remote areas as well urban slums.

_A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we* assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported*. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway" [source]
  [source]_
https://virusncov.com/


----------



## basilio (7 April 2020)

basilio said:


> https://virusncov.com/




This is an excellent site to review what is happening with the COVID 19 virus. It drills deeper into the levels of illness as well as the recovery of people. 
Worth a look.


----------



## basilio (7 April 2020)

barney said:


> Assuming the story is accurate, "Price gouging" by the Chinese in this instance could be considered a criminal offence in my book!  Poor form if true.




Really ?  I  suggest the masters of price gouging are the importers and resellers of the masks and products made in China.


----------



## Humid (7 April 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> Stimulus so far seems to have been targeting food on the table and a roof on over our heads.
> 
> Have any govs started talking about actual stimulus to create new jobs, new projects, new money in to the system, not just replacing what was lost?




They didn’t seem to have any ideas prior to this


----------



## SirRumpole (7 April 2020)

Humid said:


> They didn’t seem to have any ideas prior to this





Someone here mentioned the idea of more social housing, which is worth considering.

Employment in the building industry, take the pressure off young families and the older retrenched people struggling to pay the rent.

Better than building more motorways imho.


----------



## hja (7 April 2020)

IFocus said:


> 14% reinfection rate is one number I have seen but reported 2nd time around its not as bad



It would be good know especially you've had it with the less common symptoms like diarrhea, appetite loss and lack of taste... no obvious respiratory problem though.
But apparently the antibodies test isn't reliable.
?
Any idea when this test is available here?
And it's the same old Covid-19 all around the world that hasn't mutated.


----------



## rederob (7 April 2020)

hja said:


> It would be good know especially you've had it with the less common symptoms like diarrhea, appetite loss and lack of taste... no obvious respiratory problem though.
> But apparently the antibodies test isn't reliable.
> ?
> Any idea when this test is available here?
> And it's the same old Covid-19 all around the world that hasn't mutated.



Our TGA will not allow any non-approved tests to be available.
They can be obtained online in the UK, and the USA is fast tracking a few companies to make millions as well.
Even if unreliable, if they are cheap, I would retest regularly if venturing out, as once I knew I had the antibodies it is difficult to get re-infected.


----------



## hja (7 April 2020)

rederob said:


> Our TGA will not allow any non-approved tests to be available.
> They can be obtained online in the UK, and the USA is fast tracking a few companies to make millions as well.
> Even if unreliable, if they are cheap, I would retest regularly if venturing out, as once I knew I had the antibodies it is difficult to get re-infected.



And a Bondi Beach drive-through test would be fruitless for antibodies if having no current symptoms. I can't find anything on imminent TGA approved testing.


----------



## rederob (7 April 2020)

hja said:


> I can't find anything on imminent TGA approved testing.



Look here.  
Some are designated "Point of Care Test" (POCT) kits rather than "self-test" kits.


----------



## sptrawler (7 April 2020)

A lot of 'temporary' Bank branch closures happening at present, it will be interesting to see how many re open, after the crisis.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...emporary-branch-closures-20200406-p54hit.html
From the article:
National Australia Bank will temporarily close more than one in 10 of its branches, as social distancing rules lead to a sharp drop in the number of people doing their banking in person.

The lender on Monday said it had closed about 20 of its 635 Australian branches so far in response to coronavirus, and the number of outlets closed would rise to 70 this week.
ANZ Bank had on Monday also closed 58 of its branches, while Westpac has had up to 30 of its branches closed in recent weeks, while Commonwealth Bank had 16 of its branches shut.
Banking sources suggested more outlets were likely to close across the industry, as the number of people visiting branches falls sharply, and banks face staff shortages due to parents needing to care for children.
"We think it’s a really great opportunity to start re-skilling our teams, so that they can start to help other areas that have been inundated during this period,” she said.
For example, she said NAB had been contacting 15,000 customers who did their banking using a passbook. Some of this group had used a passbook account for 40 years and had been reluctant to change, she said, but were now learning how to do some of their banking digitally.


----------



## IFocus (7 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A lot of 'temporary' Bank branch closures happening at present, it will be interesting to see how many re open, after the crisis.
> 
> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...emporary-branch-closures-20200406-p54hit.html
> From the article:
> ...




Applies to a lot of things across the board what is the new normal going to look like?

Banks are big on talking customer service (that works for them) not so much for customers suspect the market will determine which branches that return and that will be down to competition, some thing the banking sector has lacked as the big 4 have really been nothing more than a cartel with us underwriting them to strip us with fees.

Great scam if you can run it.


----------



## sptrawler (7 April 2020)

IFocus said:


> Applies to a lot of things across the board what is the new normal going to look like?
> 
> Banks are big on talking customer service (that works for them) not so much for customers suspect the market will determine which branches that return and that will be down to competition, some thing the banking sector has lacked as the big 4 have really been nothing more than a cartel with us underwriting them to strip us with fees.
> 
> Great scam if you can run it.



I suppose it is that, or have an open banking system, which wouldn't be pretty in the current circumstances. IMO
On the other hand they could be run as a not for profit organisation like HBF, from memory the banks ROE isn't brilliant, compared to other mega size industries.


----------



## barney (7 April 2020)

basilio said:


> Really ?  I  suggest the masters of price gouging are the importers and resellers of the masks and products made in China.




You could be right on that front as well Bas … 

I was only going on the article by Darren Gray (Age/SMH) where he said ...

Magnus Nicolin, the head of protective suits and glove manufacturer Ansell, says Beijing needs to crack down on Chinese companies that have substantially lifted the prices of face masks during the COVID-19 crisis.

"There's been an enormous price escalation. Some of the Chinese companies who are claiming to be doing so much good for mankind have taken prices up *two, three, four, or even 10 times what it was before*. 

At the same time, he said the ASX-listed personal protective equipment* (PPE) maker had "not changed our pricing one bit".

*


----------



## sptrawler (8 April 2020)

Mark McGowan in W.A is doing an excellent job IMO, he has been firm but decisive, not leaving anything to gossip and speculation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...to-six-as-two-die-in-perth-hospitals/12128886
From the article:
*Parliament to debate urgent legislation next week*
Meanwhile, the Government has confirmed plans to recall State Parliament next week to pass urgent coronavirus-related legislation.

MPs have been told the Lower House will sit next Wednesday and the Upper House on Thursday, to consider more measures to deal with the impact of COVID-19.
Among the items expected to be on the agenda is the use of Lotterywest revenue as a support fund for not-for-profit organisations, exemptions for payroll tax related to payments from the JobKeeper scheme and changes to commercial tenancy arrangements agreed to by national cabinet.

Mr McGowan said commercial rents "would need to come down".

"Commercial tenants have had revenue collapse, commercial rents should reflect this," he said.

"I don't want to see any tenant lose their business and then be sued for their house just because they cannot pay their rent during this period."

Mr McGowan said the Government was also "assessing options" to provide land tax relief, but no commitments had been made.


----------



## MrChow (8 April 2020)

Australia is going to be a great test case for the rest of the world.   Low numbers in a warmer climate but risk of secondary wave during flu season.  What happens here in June is likely to be replicated (good or bad) around the world as seasons change.


----------



## MrChow (8 April 2020)

https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...alia-s-coronavirus-death-rate-20200402-p54gbz

Only 431 people have caught the Coronavirus from a stranger in Australia.


----------



## sptrawler (8 April 2020)

Germany to tighten regulations on foreign take overs of German companies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-rules-on-foreign-takeovers?srnd=premium-asia
From the Article:
Without identifying potential buyers, Altmaier said authorities are already scrutinizing a concrete attempt to purchase a German company involved in “medical production,” and examining others.
As companies contend with plummeting market values -- Germany’s DAX index is down more than 20% so far this year -- Chinese firms are getting ready for discount deals in Europe, exploiting the turmoil in which businesses are scrambling for cash to stay afloat.

Bankers have recently seen a spike in requests from Chinese firms and funds for proposals on targets in Europe, according to people familiar with the potential deals. Many potential acquirers are state-owned enterprises, they said.

Merkel’s government in recent years has adopted a stricter stance, particularly with respect to China, on attempts to seize or gain leverage over German companies with crucial know-how for the digital economy. In particular, it’s focused on areas such as artificial intelligence and battery-cell production.

The current initiative, a tightening of Germany’s Foreign Trade Law, will restrict access to company know-how to potential bidders while an acquisition is being reviewed.


----------



## sptrawler (8 April 2020)

China looks to capitalise  on a once in a century event to pick up bagains, at least Australia is aware of the issue.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tes-are-gearing-up-in-europe-for-m-a-bargains


----------



## Boggo (8 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> China looks to capitalise  on a once in a century event to pick up bagains, at least Australia is aware of the issue.
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tes-are-gearing-up-in-europe-for-m-a-bargains




Locally too as of last week...


----------



## MrChow (8 April 2020)

https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/resou.../Pages/statistics-on-who-invests-in-australia

I find it strange that a country that is responsible for 1.8% of foreign investment in Australia gets 100% of the articles.  Although if you replace China with Belgium nobody will read the clickbait.


----------



## matty77 (8 April 2020)

Because Chinese investment has grown significantly over the past decade, because Chinese investment continues to grow as a %, because the Chinese Government is a Communist Government and rules by fear and intimidation, is dishonest and are liars, because with China it only goes one way and thats their way, it always benefits China most, because China love underhanded deals and spying on other Countries without any implications and they China love to deny and spin disinformation campaigns....

Dont get me wrong, I am talking about the CPC here not the Chinese people. I have a few Chinese friends and they are wonderful people, just saying before you try and spin the racist card out...


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Dont get me wrong, I am talking about the CPC here not the Chinese people. I have a few Chinese friends and they are wonderful people



Absolutely.

The concerns relate to government not to the people. It's about politics not race.

Same goes for people who dislike Donald Trump. It's about politics not the ordinary American citizen even though, unlike the Chinese, Americans did vote their President into office but the concerns are still about politics not the people as such.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2020)

Looking to the longer term implications, business is starting to acknowledge what many have been thinking:



> It will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels




https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52209591


----------



## SirRumpole (9 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking to the longer term implications, business is starting to acknowledge what many have been thinking:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52209591





I think it will take years to lift the travel restrictions.

Probably anyone who wants to come here will need to need to isolate for 14 days on their arrival as is the case now. We have seen what one cruise ship can do and the same applies to airlines.

International air and sea travel won't be normal unless and until there is a vaccine or effective treatment. 

The tourism industry will be stuffed for at least 5 years I reckon and its one of our biggest employers.


----------



## qldfrog (9 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think it will take years to lift the travel restrictions.
> 
> Probably anyone who wants to come here will need to need to isolate for 14 days on their arrival as is the case now. We have seen what one cruise ship can do and the same applies to airlines.
> 
> ...



And then add the so called foreign students. 
I can not see how airfares could return to the cheap level they were
.nearly 30y ago, a one way trip from europe was $2000 from memory
That would easily translate to a 8k return in nowadays dollars
I expect travel costs to easily double
A bummer, and then add quarantine costs and time at least initially.


----------



## qldfrog (9 April 2020)

We are all guilty of focusing on whether asx asx will go up or down another 10pc, or if nxt shares will jump.i think we should probably all take a step back, look at the big picture and then
run to get gold, usd, foreign assets...


----------



## Country Lad (9 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And then add the so called foreign students.
> I can not see how airfares could return to the cheap level they were nearly 30y ago, a one way trip from europe was $2000 from memory
> That would easily translate to a 8k return in nowadays dollars
> I expect travel costs to easily double
> A bummer, and then add quarantine costs and time at least initially.




How the airline industry emerges will be interesting to watch as there will really be 2 scenarios.

On one hand it will be realised that the industry as it was, with many of the airlines uneconomic, will not be sustainable and we could see higher prices with fewer airlines.

On the other hand, there will be a lot of aircraft sitting idle many will be offered at low rates as owners and leasing companies will be trying to do all sorts of deals to get them in the air. That will result in too much capacity, the price cutting and unviable operators.

So it will be interesting to see how it develops.  Either way, I doubt Virgin will be a substantial player if at all.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Probably anyone who wants to come here will need to need to isolate for 14 days on their arrival as is the case now.



Which realistically would kill pretty much all leisure tourism, business travel except long term, concert tours, international sport etc.

What’s left would be immigrants or long term (years) visitors and the odd person on a one-off visit to see the family members they’ve never met etc.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, just noting the consequences. The whole tourism industry would be shrunk to the point that it would no longer be a significant thing economically.

Same everywhere. Not many people would be really so keen to go to Paris or New York that they’re willing to spend two weeks effectively in prison (quarantine) in order to do so then another stint locked up upon returning home.

Domestic tourism operators would logically benefit though, especially those which weren’t really on the map so far as international tourists are concerned. 

Ordinary Australians might finally get around to seeing the ACT, SA or western NSW if going overseas is virtually impossible. Some of those towns that everyone’s heard of but most Australians have never been to might actually benefit from it all if they go about it the right way.  Etc.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2020)

Job ads across the country have dropped by almost two thirds as the labour market continues to take a beating from the economic shutdown caused by coronavirus.

National job ads data obtained from online recruiting platform SEEK indicate job ad volumes have progressively worsened since the start of March, hitting a 65.3 per cent drop for week to April 5, compared to the same period last year.

SEEK managing director Kendra Banks described the virus impact on jobs as “swift and extreme”, adding to pressure from bushfires earlier in the year and already weak economic outlook. She said Victoria and New South Wales had experienced the largest declines, which were down 71.6 per cent and 67.4 per cent, respectively.


> “Two distinct changes are occurring in Australia’s labour market right now,” Ms Banks said. "Unfortunately there is a mass reduction in the number of jobs available at a national level, whilst simultaneously there is an urgent demand for workers in specific industries.”



A job prospect survey conducted by SEEK found that only 53 per cent of Australian’s feel positive about their future job prospects. The survey also indicated job security had dropped from 66 per cent in January to 53 per cent at the end of March.


----------



## sptrawler (9 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Which realistically would kill pretty much all leisure tourism, business travel except long term, concert tours, international sport etc.
> 
> What’s left would be immigrants or long term (years) visitors and the odd person on a one-off visit to see the family members they’ve never met etc.
> 
> ...



Probably worth starting a question and answer thread, covering remote Australian destinations, how to get there, what to take, what expect etc.
I know there are people who would love to cross the Simpson Desert, the Great Central road, Kings Canyon, East and West McDonald Ranges, the Nullabor, Cape Levique etc.
But are worried or have no idea where to start, which is the best way and what to carry.
There will be a lot of member's on ASF who will be able to help with info, just a thought.


----------



## Country Lad (9 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Probably worth starting a question and answer thread, covering remote Australian destinations, how to get there, what to take, what expect etc.
> I know there are people who would love to cross the Simpson Desert, the Great Central road, Kings Canyon, East and West McDonald Ranges, the Nullabor, Cape Levique etc.
> But are worried or have no idea where to start, which is the best way and what to carry.
> There will be a lot of member's on ASF who will be able to help with info, just a thought.




sshh, we will have none of that.  I have been travelling Aus for 14 years and there are places I am still to visit.  I don't want them to to be cluttered up with more like me.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (9 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Ordinary Australians might finally get around to seeing the ACT, SA or western NSW if going overseas is virtually impossible. Some of those towns that everyone’s heard of but most Australians have never been to might actually benefit from it all if they go about it the right way.  Etc.




Aren't some states already enforcing the same 2 week quarantine for anyone (even residents) who cross the border as well?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ation-rules-who-has-to-do-it-and-how-it-works


> Tasmania, South Australia, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland have also imposed mandatory self-isolation requirements on non-essential travellers from interstate – including residents returning home.


----------



## jbocker (9 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I know there are people who would love to cross the Simpson Desert, the Great Central road, Kings Canyon, East and West McDonald Ranges, the Nullabor, Cape Levique etc.



.
...and other desolate places like  state capital city centres don't forget to put 'em on your bucket list.

( just be Clear I said Bucket)


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Aren't some states already enforcing the same 2 week quarantine for anyone (even residents) who cross the border as well?



I think it's quite likely the international border will be the last thing to be eased off. As a release, pent up demand and also stimulus to economy, regional then interstate travel may be allowed and even encouraged down the track







> Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said it was plausible to eradicate the virus by keeping the community locked down until the virus has run its course and infection rates were zero.





> "The issue, though, is that then you don't have any immunity in the population and you really have to control your borders in a very aggressive way. And that might be for a long time,'' he said


----------



## jbocker (9 April 2020)

I note a bit of chat about how long it will take airlines to recover with the tourist industry. It may take some time, but I wonder how much longer, than the airlines, the cruise industry will take. Good luck trying to get travel insurance for over 60s.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2020)

Jobs in some sectors
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/coronavirus-employment-jobs-advertisements/12134446
... an urgent demand for both skilled and non-skilled workers in a small number of specific industries and roles. These included:

*Healthcare*: Nurses, aged care workers, general medical workers, psychologists, counsellors and social workers are among those who remain in demand.
*Retail*: Those critical to the supply chain, such as shelf stackers, delivery drivers, supply chain managers and warehouse supervisors.
*Manufacturing*: Some factories require more workers to meet additional demand for household staples.
*Digital specialists*: The massive shift to working from home means software developers and cyber security experts are in demand.
*Family support*: Nannies and tutors are sought-after, as parents seek additional help with care and education at home.
*Customer support*: Call centre operators and managers and customer support staff.
*Mining and resources*: Roles such as diesel fitters, auto electricians, truck drivers and machine operators


----------



## jbocker (9 April 2020)

I visit hospitals more than I like, for this and that, and I usually stop in the café on the way out. But it is gonna cost me a lot more , because I am going to pay for every nurses coffee I see in those cafes.
Bless them all. If you know of any or anyone that works in hospitals please pass on my most sincere thanks.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Aren't some states already enforcing the same 2 week quarantine for anyone (even residents) who cross the border as well?



They are yes.

My assumption though is that we'll see travel restrictions within Australia removed sometime prior to an easing of restrictions internationally or at least for returning passengers.

That could of course be wrong......


----------



## moXJO (10 April 2020)

Turns out there was a bank run back in March.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-bank-run-panic-cash-withdrawals-rba-2020-4


----------



## hja (10 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Turns out there was a bank run back in March.
> 
> https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-bank-run-panic-cash-withdrawals-rba-2020-4




It looks like all those rich people who withdrew vast sums of cash from the bank last month will now have to surrender their wads for incineration in order to eliminate all traces of COVID-19.

We cannot have that behaviour in this establishment.


----------



## jbocker (10 April 2020)

It is good for business to have a return to work as soon as reasonably safe to do so, that is obvious. I wonder about getting back to a safe environment, where I think Australia is doing a lot better than most, would that be good for business too from an international perspective? Would Australia become a place of choice for safer tourism, a 'safer' place to live?


----------



## SirRumpole (10 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> It is good for business to have a return to work as soon as reasonably safe to do so, that is obvious. I wonder about getting back to a safe environment, where I think Australia is doing a lot better than most, would that be good for business too from an international perspective? Would Australia become a place of choice for safer tourism, a 'safer' place to live?




Interesting thought. Some businesses may decide to move here, others may think that this is a once in 100 year event and it's not worth their while relocating.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> I wonder about getting back to a safe environment, where I think Australia is doing a lot better than most, would that be good for business too from an international perspective? Would Australia become a place of choice for safer tourism, a 'safer' place to live?



We could also see that effect within the country if one state or region does far better than another. I mean that in terms of both containing the virus and people being happy with the measures used to do so.

Regarding the latter point there's a stark contrast between Victoria's "zero tolerance law enforcement" approach to it versus SA's "just be a good egg and do the right thing" approach.


----------



## moXJO (12 April 2020)

Interesting to see Singapore numbers are jumping due to "complacency" (among other things).
Not a good sign.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 April 2020)

The yearly Priceline Pharmacy conference was going to be in Singapore this year. 
Cancelled.
Dumb idea anyway.
Spend the money in Australia anyway, I say. 
As a tag along, have got to see Perth and Brisbane out of their conferences. Darwin next please !
Otherwise maybe I will never never know....

F.Rock


----------



## SirRumpole (13 April 2020)

Apparently 2/3 of our economic growth was due to migration.

How is that going to work out now ?

Looks like we may actually have to get off our butts and rely on ourselves for quite a while.


----------



## Knobby22 (13 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Apparently 2/3 of our economic growth was due to migration.
> 
> How is that going to work out now ?
> 
> .




Our immigration rate on a per capita basis and in sheer numbers has been the highest in our history. 

No immigration for a while is a good thing to stabilise our society and let the infrastructure catch up. 

It's been ridiculous lately in Melbourne. Building works everywhere and adding 1 million population every 5 years.


----------



## sptrawler (13 April 2020)

Just had a thought, what information do people have to give, to access the unemplyment benefits?  I wonder how much data the ATO will obtain on the gig economy and how much the cash economy really represents.


----------



## basilio (14 April 2020)

*South Dakota pork plant closes after over 200 workers contract Covid-19 *
About 240 employees at the plant contracted the virus, making up over half of the state’s positive cases

A major pork manufacturing plant in South Dakota has indefinitely shut down after more than 200 of its employees contracted Covid-19.

According to Smithfield, who runs the plant, the facility’s output represents up to 5% of US pork production, supplying 130m servings of food a week and employing 3,700 people. Over 550 independent farmers supplied the plant.

....In a statement, Smithfield’s chief executive, Kenneth Sullivan, warned of “severe” repercussions to the meat supply chain if more manufacturing plants see similar spreads of Covid-19.

“The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,” Sullivan said in the statement. “It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.”

Other meat manufacturers similarly shut down plant operations after multiple employees contracted Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...nt-closes-after-200-workers-contract-covid-19


----------



## matty77 (14 April 2020)

Well Bunnings had a record weekend sales wise... go figure....

Some stores had lines up where people were waiting 2-3 hours to get in.


----------



## againsthegrain (14 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Well Bunnings had a record weekend sales wise... go figure....
> 
> Some stores had lines up where people were waiting 2-3 hours to get in.




Already people are trying to sue China


----------



## hja (14 April 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> Already people are trying to sue China




Well if they refuse to close down those wet markets dealing in exotic, jungle beasts, every country will have to build a Great Wall around China. Otherwise SARS and COVID will be just the beginning of the CCP epidemic.


----------



## rederob (14 April 2020)

hja said:


> Well if they refuse to close down those wet markets dealing in exotic, jungle beasts, every country will have to build a Great Wall around China. Otherwise SARS and COVID will be just the beginning of the CCP epidemic.



When were you last in China?
Me, late last year for 7th time in total, over 25 years.
Wet markets in many villages are  an essential part of life.
I am shocked by what some markets have available, and I hope over time international pressure brings a semblance of "acceptability" to what is available.  However, these were not the norm that I experienced as the really exotic stuff only seemed to be sold in the big cities rather than villages.
And while COVID-19 will be unpleasant around the world, maybe we need to reflect on these statistics:


I have always been more fearful jumping into a car and heading off than anything else, as I have stayed fit and eaten healthily in the hope the other principal causes of preventable death would not come into play.


----------



## hja (14 April 2020)

rederob said:


> When were you last in China?
> Me, late last year for 7th time in total, over 25 years.
> Wet markets in many villages are  an essential part of life.
> I am shocked by what some markets have available, and I hope over time international pressure brings a semblance of "acceptability" to what is available.  However, these were not the norm that I experienced as the really exotic stuff only seemed to be sold in the big cities rather than villages.
> ...



I've been to China and seen the array of insects and meats sold in Beijing. It's nothing to boast about seeing so many times.
Well as you should know, those convenient "stats" are irrelevant... if you're really concerned about COVID-19 surpassing those in your little list there, you'll have to give it more time if it gets out of control.
Again your last paragraph is completely out of context and unrelatable to what's going on around you. It's not like most people will get to travel around as much in car for the next few months anyway; so much for that example.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 April 2020)

hja said:


> Well if they refuse to close down those wet markets dealing in exotic, jungle beasts, every country will have to build a Great Wall around China. Otherwise SARS and COVID will be just the beginning of the CCP epidemic.




Given that China is basically trying to prompt a conflict over this, we'd be wise to understand exactly what their motivations and thinking are before we respond.

If someone actually wants conflict, and that seems rather obvious, then they probably don't expect to lose from it.


----------



## hja (14 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Given that China is basically trying to prompt a conflict over this, we'd be wise to understand exactly what their motivations and thinking are before we respond.
> 
> If someone actually wants conflict, and that seems rather obvious, then they probably don't expect to lose from it.



Of course I meant that in the figurative sense to basically mean the same as what you imply: to wait and see.
Well I'm not sure who you refer to in your last sentence.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 April 2020)

_The Australian_ is running with some numbers departing these shores in the last few months.


> In the first 3 months of the year, 260,000 temporary visa holders departed, and a further 50,000 in the first two weeks of April (these numbers include tourists, temporary workers and students)




Now if economic health, growth, (those 'wonderful' numbers economists like to trot out) is dependent on the 3P's
1. Population
2. Participation
3. Productivity
then we're in for a rough trot, because #'s 2 and 3 are likely to be lower, as well. Of course, Australians resident OS have returned in some numbers.

The Budget has net overseas immigration at nearly 800,000 over the next 3 years, clearly not going to happen. There are an estimated 150,000 foreign workers here still.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 April 2020)

hja said:


> I'm not sure who you refer to in your last sentence.



As a general statement - anyone.

If someone, anyone, actually wants a fight then they probably aren't expecting that they're going to lose.

The Chinese government aren't fools, they're long term strategic thinkers. In re-opening these markets they know full well that's going to prompt a degree of outrage in other countries, particularly Western ones, so presumably there's some grander strategy there.


----------



## hja (16 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general statement - anyone.
> 
> If someone, anyone, actually wants a fight then they probably aren't expecting that they're going to lose.
> 
> The Chinese government aren't fools, they're long term strategic thinkers. In re-opening these markets they know full well that's going to prompt a degree of outrage in other countries, particularly Western ones, so presumably there's some grander strategy there.



Provocation and a show of self-determination to assert their sovereignty, I suppose. But it's not really necessary given their size and power now and in the long term.


----------



## againsthegrain (16 April 2020)

hja said:


> Provocation and a show of self-determination to assert their sovereignty, I suppose. But it's not really necessary given their size and power now and in the long term.




Either that or trying to bluff your enemy into submission


----------



## Sdajii (16 April 2020)

hja said:


> Well if they refuse to close down those wet markets dealing in exotic, jungle beasts, every country will have to build a Great Wall around China. Otherwise SARS and COVID will be just the beginning of the CCP epidemic.




Some people seem to think China is the only country with wet markets. We markets are common right across Asia. I've spent around 6 years in Asia (I am trapped in Australia because I happened to be here for a 2 week visit at the time the travel bans came into place, which has utterly destroyed my 10 year plan and put me in a terrible situation), I routinely shopped at wet markets from India to Vietnam, Laos to Malaysia and everywhere in between (and yep, I've seen, bought and eaten a huge variety of things from them including bats). I've been close to the border but never actually into China. There is plenty of evidence which says this virus didn't originate at the wet market, including the face that people were being infected with it *before* it first arrived at the wet market. Amusingly, the official story is that the virus came from horseshoe bats, a type of bat which has never been sold at the wet market in question and doesn't occur anywhere within a thousand km from the wet market. However, it is open, public knowledge that the nearby virus research laboratory (where the original patients were right next to, and much closer to it than the market) was working on horseshoe bat coronaviruses. Yet they still push the wet market story!


----------



## hja (16 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Some people seem to think China is the only country with wet markets. We markets are common right across Asia. I've spent around 6 years in Asia (I am trapped in Australia because I happened to be here for a 2 week visit at the time the travel bans came into place, which has utterly destroyed my 10 year plan and put me in a terrible situation), I routinely shopped at wet markets from India to Vietnam, Laos to Malaysia and everywhere in between (and yep, I've seen, bought and eaten a huge variety of things from them including bats). I've been close to the border but never actually into China. There is plenty of evidence which says this virus didn't originate at the wet market, including the face that people were being infected with it *before* it first arrived at the wet market. Amusingly, the official story is that the virus came from horseshoe bats, a type of bat which has never been sold at the wet market in question and doesn't occur anywhere within a thousand km from the wet market. However, it is open, public knowledge that the nearby virus research laboratory (where the original patients were right next to, and much closer to it than the market) was working on horseshoe bat coronaviruses. Yet they still push the wet market story!



Either way, we've seen how vile the practices are where one species is shown crammed into a cage,  under, above, to the side of neighbouring cages housing totally different animal species. All different animals  are lumped together hodgepodge, hosed down (hence the word "wet" in "wet market") with debris overflowing or outflowing into the surrounds. Animals defecate over each other and between the bars of the individual cages, so poos and other dirt from one species spread and contaminate others. Those conclusions wouldn't be a long bow.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Some people seem to think China is the only country with wet markets.



It's not the only country with them, just the only one whose national government claimed they were the cause of having stuffed almost every country on earth and which then allowed them to re-open.

China is provoking serious conflict over this one and they couldn't possibly fail to realise that.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's not the only country with them, just the only one whose national government claimed they were the cause of having stuffed almost every country on earth and which then allowed them to re-open.
> 
> China is provoking serious conflict over this one and they couldn't possibly fail to realise that.




Every reasonable country should refuse to accept visitors from China until those markets are closed down.


----------



## sptrawler (16 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's not the only country with them, just the only one whose national government claimed they were the cause of having stuffed almost every country on earth and which then allowed them to re-open.
> 
> China is provoking serious conflict over this one and they couldn't possibly fail to realise that.



If China say it escaped from the markets, well that is a problem because it is obviously difficult to guarantee it won't happen again.
If it escaped from a laboratory, well then that is easier to regulate and put in better safeguards.
So I guess when they finally work out where it originated, the solution will be obvious.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> Either way, we've seen how vile the practices are where one species is shown crammed into a cage,  under, above, to the side of neighbouring cages housing totally different animal species. All different animals  are lumped together hodgepodge, hosed down (hence the word "wet" in "wet market") with debris overflowing or outflowing into the surrounds. Animals defecate over each other and between the bars of the individual cages, so poos and other dirt from one species spread and contaminate others. Those conclusions wouldn't be a long bow.




It's pretty clear you've never actually been to a wet market. The often don't even have live animals, and it's pretty common for them to only have live fish. I shopped at them for years for my staples. I'd have been to one today, yesterday and I'd be going to one tomorrow if I wasn't stuck in Australia, I've been to wet markets in several countries in Asia over the last few months, so I'm not sure why you're feeling the need to describe them to me, and since what you're describing sounds like a description of an extreme example you saw on shock value media (and yes, I have been to such places, they do exist).

Bottom line, the vague story is that either 'the market sold infected bats to people' or 'the market mixed bats with pangolins, creating a virus, and that's how people got it'. The story makes no sense though because that species of bat doesn't come from anywhere remotely near that market and the market doesn't sell bats. Plus, people had COVID-19 before COVID-19 first arrived at that market.

It's also worth mentioning that most outbreaks have come from domesticated animals, not wild animals. Swine flu (domestic pigs), bird flu (domestic fowl), MERS (domestic camels), mad cow disease (domestic cattle)... yet a fake story about a wet market which doesn't even sell the type of animal they claim the virus comes from and everyone wants to shut down Chinese wet markets (ignoring the fact that wet markets exist all over Asia, and most certainly won't be going away in a hurry).


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## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's not the only country with them, just the only one whose national government claimed they were the cause of having stuffed almost every country on earth and which then allowed them to re-open.
> 
> China is provoking serious conflict over this one and they couldn't possibly fail to realise that.




We should indeed hold them accountable, the CCP is absolutely undeniably guilty of many crimes against humanity and this absolutely counts as one of them, but we should focus on where the problem actually comes from and not where the lies of the guilty party point to. Since there is ample evidence to show that the virus didn't actually start at the wet market, our focus shouldn't be on closing down wet markets. That's just a distraction from the real issue.


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## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Every reasonable country should refuse to accept visitors from China until those markets are closed down.




Every reasonable country and human being should demand the CCP be held accountable, but focussing on the wet markets is stupid. If I am negligent and allow people to die from poison I'm putting on my land, then cover it up for a while and allow more people to die, then blame my mechanic with a false story about him adding something to my fuel which made the car blow toxic fumes, I shouldn't be forgiven if I dispose of my car!

Should every country boycott every country with wet markets? Or should they just boycott China? Should countries with shared land borders with China such as India, Laos, Vietnam etc also refuse Chinese visitors? I've been to wet markets in these countries.

How does punishing the people of a country for the inaction of its government make sense? If wet markets/poor hygiene are reason for banning visitors from that country, you're going to have a very long list of travel bans, much longer than Trump's proposed list of countries whose citizens were not welcome, which I assume you weren't fond of.

What exactly does closing down wet markets mean anyway? I've been to countless towns and villages where the town wet market is the place where everyone gets their food. You're not going to set up a big Woolworths supermarket out there, and in those villages a wet market is literally the only option. How are people with no other option supposed to have a food market? Perhaps more relevant, why should we tell them they can't have one? Should Europe be banned from having cattle (mad cow disease), the middle east banned from having camels (MERS), should Mexico/North America be banned from having pigs (swine flu)?


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

And this focus on the wet market..which is the official CCP explanation is probably pure BS propaganda, even if it was mot engineered ..my view..it comes from a lab
https://www.news.com.au/world/evide...s/news-story/2ad3e982151581735b85aebe5102cf9f
But let's blame the market..you can not sue a bat a snake a pangolin can you, or adopt diplomatic or trade reprisal against animals


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## SirRumpole (17 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Should every country boycott every country with wet markets?




Yes.


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## hja (17 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's pretty clear you've never actually been to a wet market. The often don't even have live animals, and it's pretty common for them to only have live fish. I shopped at them for years for my staples. I'd have been to one today, yesterday and I'd be going to one tomorrow if I wasn't stuck in Australia, I've been to wet markets in several countries in Asia over the last few months, so I'm not sure why you're feeling the need to describe them to me, and since what you're describing sounds like a description of an extreme example you saw on shock value media (and yes, I have been to such places, they do exist).
> 
> Bottom line, the vague story is that either 'the market sold infected bats to people' or 'the market mixed bats with pangolins, creating a virus, and that's how people got it'. The story makes no sense though because that species of bat doesn't come from anywhere remotely near that market and the market doesn't sell bats. Plus, people had COVID-19 before COVID-19 first arrived at that market.
> 
> It's also worth mentioning that most outbreaks have come from domesticated animals, not wild animals. Swine flu (domestic pigs), bird flu (domestic fowl), MERS (domestic camels), mad cow disease (domestic cattle)... yet a fake story about a wet market which doesn't even sell the type of animal they claim the virus comes from and everyone wants to shut down Chinese wet markets (ignoring the fact that wet markets exist all over Asia, and most certainly won't be going away in a hurry).



It doesn't really matter whether I've been or not, and I wasn't talking about fish markets and those that deal only in fish which is what you seem to be partial to.

I didn't even mention bats. But there has been research showing that the virus most likely originated from an animal. Maybe the genes were tinkered with at some time afterwards; I don't know. But wasn't the point. We're talking about the practices of keeping and selling exotic meats. Who knows, maybe there was no first instance in a wet market but was propagated there anyway. It doesn't matter.

Funny how when someone is disgruntled about unbiased reports of goings-on in their neck of the woods, they feel the need to label  it as "fake news", just like the Chinese ambassador to Australia who came on Q&A to label the Uyghur situation "fake news".


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> It doesn't really matter whether I've been or not, and I wasn't talking about fish markets and those that deal only in fish which is what you seem to be partial to.
> 
> I didn't even mention bats. But there has been research showing that the virus most likely originated from an animal. Maybe the genes were tinkered with at some time afterwards; I don't know. But wasn't the point. We're talking about the practices of keeping and selling exotic meats. Who knows, maybe there was no first instance in a wet market but was propagated there anyway. It doesn't matter.
> 
> Funny how when someone is disgruntled about unbiased reports of goings-on in their neck of the woods, they feel the need to label  it as "fake news", just like the Chinese ambassador to Australia who came on Q&A to label the Uyghur situation "fake news".



@hja, so why is everyone swallowing whole the official CCP story of originating from a wet market?
The labs where this most probably originated is where the focus should be, yes people meet there so it was a propagation area but not the cause,
Should we blame the cruise carriers as the cause of the virus, ban them..instead of China

Well it seems many are unable to go to the root
And more politically correct for the ccp minions, or even just leftist minded you can enroll with a few pictures of skinned animals...with a disclaimer of course for sensitive snowflakes.
I do not support the sale of endangered species for meat or otherwise..like in africa BTW..bush meat..
But covid-19 has nothing to do with these market..
Once again, China has won...
Why is the west so dumb when dealing with the rise of China.Trump with all his orange hair is the only one i remember having even started to face the threat


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## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes.




The display of naivety and insanity required to say this is extreme.


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## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> It doesn't really matter whether I've been or not, and I wasn't talking about fish markets and those that deal only in fish which is what you seem to be partial to.




It matters because you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about yet feel inclined to not only have an opinion about something you have no concept of, but you feel that this unfounded opinion should be pushed on others. The majority of wet markets contain a variety of fruits and vegetables, fish (often live), chicken (often live), pork (occasionally live), insects, prawns etc. The smaller and poorer the towns and villages, the more often you see things like reptiles, snails, frogs, squirrels, bats, rats, game birds, civets, etc. If you're in a remote village where many people eat mainly bamboo and rice and are lucky to catch a few insects and wild animals to supplement their diets, you can hardly blame them for wanting to eat something else. If I dumped you into a remote area for a few months where you were forced on to a diet of little more than bamboo and rice, you'd be pretty angry if I told you that you weren't allowed to eat any of the animals you occasionally manage to obtain. It's a world you clearly have no idea about, and I guarantee that if you spent years in that environment like I have you would have a completely different way of seeing things. I would love to watch you struggle to cope in the first few weeks as you came to terms with the realities you were faced with, and with a comfortable armchair expert attitude, you'd totally deserve it.



> I didn't even mention bats. But there has been research showing that the virus most likely originated from an animal.




And the sky is blue and water gets things wet.



> Maybe the genes were tinkered with at some time afterwards; I don't know. But wasn't the point. We're talking about the practices of keeping and selling exotic meats. Who knows, maybe there was no first instance in a wet market but was propagated there anyway. It doesn't matter.




It does matter, it's literally the entire point about the discussion in relation to wet markets! If you think they have nothing to do with the virus (and for this virus, they don't) then you agree it's an entirely unrelated issue which we should not be discussing in terms of this virus outbreak. If you think it's an animal welfare issue that's a separate issue, perhaps with some validity, but as someone who clearly demonstrates you have absolutely no concept of what wet markets are like, you have no reason to have a say in it. To have a valid opinion you first need something to base it on. In any case, as an irrelevant (even if important) topic, it shouldn't be discussed here.



> Funny how when someone is disgruntled about unbiased reports of goings-on in their neck of the woods, they feel the need to label  it as "fake news", just like the Chinese ambassador to Australia who came on Q&A to label the Uyghur situation "fake news".




Who is the person disgruntled about unbiased reports you are referring to?


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## hja (17 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It matters because you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about yet feel inclined to not only have an opinion about something you have no concept of, but you feel that this unfounded opinion should be pushed on others. The majority of wet markets contain a variety of fruits and vegetables, fish (often live), chicken (often live), pork (occasionally live), insects, prawns etc. The smaller and poorer the towns and villages, the more often you see things like reptiles, snails, frogs, squirrels, bats, rats, game birds, civets, etc. If you're in a remote village where many people eat mainly bamboo and rice and are lucky to catch a few insects and wild animals to supplement their diets, you can hardly blame them for wanting to eat something else. If I dumped you into a remote area for a few months where you were forced on to a diet of little more than bamboo and rice, you'd be pretty angry if I told you that you weren't allowed to eat any of the animals you occasionally manage to obtain. It's a world you clearly have no idea about, and I guarantee that if you spent years in that environment like I have you would have a completely different way of seeing things. I would love to watch you struggle to cope in the first few weeks as you came to terms with the realities you were faced with, and with a comfortable armchair expert attitude, you'd totally deserve it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I have something more than an idea just like you. And I have an opinion that just doesn't coincide with the one your spouting here. But like the next person, I'm perfectly capable of keeping abreast with what the score is now, having access to the same sources as you whether its footage, eyewitness accounts, etc. So don't give me the holier than thou speech because you think your circumstance is "privileged".

Let's not play with terminology. We're talking about markets whether they're wet or dry (this doesn't matter) that are home to exotic, jungle, wildlife beasts in proximity to other animals and people.

Yeah well everyone has an opinion just as each has an exhaust orifice. You're no different and are holding a flame precariously close it. So too bad if you're disgruntled or worked up about "wet", but I'm not naive to have some concept of what wet is dealing with. I'm aware it's the watering down of surfaces epsecially where meat has been cut/prepared and there's the strong implication of rampant cross-contamination.

You're one to talk; did you just turn on your computer or device since last month?


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## hja (17 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The display of naivety and insanity required to say this is extreme.



https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/16/what-is-a-wet-market-coronavirus
...
The now-infamous Wuhan South China seafood market, suspected to be a primary source for spreading Covid-19 in late 2019, had a wild animal section where live and slaughtered species were for sale, including snakes, beavers, badgers, civet cats, foxes, peacocks and porcupines among other animals.

The Wuhan market was closed in January and the Chinese authorities placed a temporary ban on all trade in wildlife. But according to recent news reports, some wildlife markets in southern China have reopened amid the pandemic, selling dogs, cats, bats, lizards and scorpions among other species.

Many Chinese continue to believe in the health benefits of consuming meat from wild animals. Two leading Hong Kong microbiologists, Professor Yuen Kwok-yung and Dr David Lung, last month condemned the continuing practice of consuming wild game, warning that “Sars 3.0” could materialise if people do not refrain from eating wild animals.


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## jbocker (17 April 2020)

Reading through recent comments I sense that there is an underlying message from all, that we need to make China accountable for the virus, however it was caused. How do we do we make them accountable?? 
The cause of the existence of the virus would be clouded (probably deliberately) and at one point blamed on as a 'natural occurrence'. This then would remove the blame from the community/nation. Was That Wet Market in particular set up as a red herring (natural cause) to hide the root cause, who knows? The wet market being reopened seems to undo the belief or excuse that the market is the root cause, due to other facts, that has exposed the 'red herring'. 
Then of course people can be justified in their annoyance that that particular wet market has reopened, without the root cause being discovered. 

Where China needs to be held accountable are the actions that were selectively not taken to spread the virus elsewhere. An example (apparently) China closing internal travel in China while allowing international travel. (I see something along those line claimed by Peter Dutton, who is not my favourite politician).


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## satanoperca (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/16/what-is-a-wet-market-coronavirus
> ...
> The now-infamous Wuhan South China seafood market, *suspected* to be a primary source for spreading Covid-19 in late 2019, had a wild animal section where live and slaughtered species were for sale, including snakes, beavers, badgers, civet cats, foxes, peacocks and porcupines among other animals.




I have highlighted just one word so you can understand, "suspected". 

Proof of evidence prevails.

Do you have any proof, that this virus emanated from the wet markets? 

Address facts not hearsay, it helps with the discussion.


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## Country Lad (17 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> ............ even if it was mot engineered ..my view..it comes from a lab




Engineered in the lab is likely a nonsense.  Escaped from the lab is very likely


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## satanoperca (17 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Engineered in the lab is likely a nonsense.  Escaped from the lab is very likely





Regardless of whether it was engineered or was been researched in a lab, the outcome is the same, China is culpable.

Lets just say it did come from a lab, we have a couple of scenarios that are plausable.
1. They engineered it
   1a. They were sloppy and the virus shows the necessary traits of being engineered. Highly unlikely, the Chinese are toooooo smart
   1b. They are very clever and can engineer a virus and no known method of science can determine that it was engineered, plausible maybe, not an expect in the field
2. They were researching viruses that could potentially jump from animals to humans.
   2a. Make sense, defending against potential/future pandemics. Getting a head of the curve.
   2b. They manage in the name of research to get a virus to infect human cells, thus jumping in the name of research, more than likely

I hope for humanity, that it is option 2 and it accidentally escape from so called secure facilities.

There is an option 3, whether it was option 1 or 2, they found a virus and unleashed onto the world. They are many valid reasons why they might have done this, world domination a little bit over the top, agro at Tumpy, maybe.

Regardless, until it can be proven either way, it is all speculation.


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## basilio (17 April 2020)

How come we haven't had a massive financial disruption as a consequence of the virtual closure of the major world economies./  ?  Just good luck perhaps ?

Not at all. This is a Long Read but given the focus of ASF on financial issues well worth the effort.

* How coronavirus almost brought down the global financial system *
Illustration: Peter Reynolds
The crisis has brought the economy to a near halt, and left millions of people out of work. But thanks to intervention on an unprecedented scale, a full-scale meltdown has been averted – for now. By Adam Tooze

In the third week of March, while most of our minds were fixed on surging coronavirus death rates and the apocalyptic scenes in hospital wards, global financial markets came as close to a collapse as they have since September 2008. The price of shares in the world’s major corporations plunged. The value of the dollar surged against every currency in the world, squeezing debtors everywhere from Indonesia to Mexico. Trillion-dollar markets for government debt, the basic foundation of the financial system, lurched up and down in terror-stricken cycles.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...most-brought-down-the-global-financial-system


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## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> I have something more than an idea just like you. And I have an opinion that just doesn't coincide with the one your spouting here. But like the next person, I'm perfectly capable of keeping abreast with what the score is now, having access to the same sources as you whether its footage, eyewitness accounts, etc. So don't give me the holier than thou speech because you think your circumstance is "privileged".




I'm not saying I'm privileged, I'm saying I've spent years routinely shopping at wet markets, I've been to wet markets in many countries, I've been to the in capital cities and remote villages, I've lived long term in communities where they're more or less the only way to trade food, and you have never even seen one and have merely seen propaganda relating to them. If you think you're perfectly capable of keeping abreast of the situation with wet markets based solely on utterly misleading propaganda, you are delusional.



> Let's not play with terminology. We're talking about markets whether they're wet or dry (this doesn't matter) that are home to exotic, jungle, wildlife beasts in proximity to other animals and people.




Do you even know what wet market means? If your problem is exclusively with bushmeat, then say you oppose bushmeat. Do you know what exotic means? Most of the bushmeat I've seen at wetmarkets is not exotic, very little of it is. It would be exotic to you, but at the wetmarket it is not exotic. Again, the type of bat COVID-19 is derived from doesn't come from anywhere near Wuhan and no bats were sold at the wetmarket in question.



> Yeah well everyone has an opinion just as each has an exhaust orifice.




You seem to be suffering from that terrible notion which was given to western schoolchildren for so long. The completely incorrect notion that everyone deserves an opinion and all opinions are equally valid. I am a biologist, I am not a mechanical engineer. My opinion on biology counts for a lot, and a mechanical engineer's counts for very little. My opinion on mechanics counts for very little, and generally I either wouldn't hold one or I would acknowledge that is it not really worth much. You are like a 5 year old child insisting you know how spaceships work. Because you saw an episode of Star Trek.



> You're no different and are holding a flame precariously close it. So too bad if you're disgruntled or worked up about "wet", but I'm not naive to have some concept of what wet is dealing with. I'm aware it's the watering down of surfaces epsecially where meat has been cut/prepared and there's the strong implication of rampant cross-contamination.




Wow. If I was trying to say something stupid without going far enough to make it look like I was joking or mentally disabled, I wouldn't have said something that stupid. You are back to thinking this is about watering down surfaces? Earlier you said the terminology or 'wet' was not the issue and that it was a bushmeat issue. In reality, animals in a forest are all other there fighting, eating each other, dying, picking through the scraps, etc etc. A wet market with local bushmeat doesn't do anything which isn't already happening in the surrounding area. Washing a market down with water is hardly a crazy thing, that happens all over the world. I don't think you even know exactly how a wet market is designed, and if I took you to markets across Asia and Australia I'm not sure if you'd even know how to classify them!


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> Engineered in the lab is likely a nonsense.  Escaped from the lab is very likely




Why nonsense? Feasible? Yes
Why? Because i can...
May not even be a bio weapon, just playing with big boy toys/tool
There are hiv sequence which are worrying in the genome, it has also been revealed the virus attacks TCells as hiv, i believe we have no hope of a vaccine for that reason neither hiv or coronavirus have working vaccines.
And for that reason am also very scared of the ongoing potential effect of that virus.we..well China uncovered/created a monster..
But even if not created, let's be reasonable and stop this crap about it coming from a bat via Wuhan market, and maybe via a snake or a pangolin
The bigger the fake news, the easier it is swallowed line and hooks by some


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## Sdajii (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/16/what-is-a-wet-market-coronavirus
> ...
> The now-infamous Wuhan South China seafood market, suspected to be a primary source for spreading Covid-19 in late 2019, had a wild animal section where live and slaughtered species were for sale, including snakes, beavers, badgers, civet cats, foxes, peacocks and porcupines among other animals.
> 
> ...




You realise that markets all over Asia, thousands upon thousands upon thousands of them, sell things like dog, bat, lizard, scorpion, etc, right? I've bought dogs, bats and lizards at markets across Asia (for memory I don't think I've bought scorpions at a wet market, although I've eaten a few I caught myself and have played with them at the markets). In countries neighbouring China and in other countries spread far and wide, these markets continue to operate as normal. My friends still routinely shop at them and if not for the travel bans I would be too. There are conflicting reports about the exact nature of the specific wet market in question (there were many false reports early on, including plenty of deliberate misinformation, with mainstream media in Australia even claiming such nonsense as live koalas being for sale there! I can tell you this is so far beyond untrue it's just insane), but horseshoe bats have never been sold there.

People are not going to stop eating wild animals any time soon. Anyone who has been to remote, poor areas of the world understands that, and anyone who doesn't understand it is completely naive about what exists in this world. Even in Australia humans routinely eat bats, legally, and this isn't going to change.


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## qldfrog (17 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Even in Australia humans routinely eat bats, legally, and this isn't going to change.



And in melanesia, 100% sure in New Caledonia, but I think also in Vanuatu, Salomon islands  etc:
Fruit bats are eaten relatively commonly: in NC it is called "roussette" I have not tasted it be given the opportunities I would have


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## hja (17 April 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I have highlighted just one word so you can understand, "suspected".
> 
> Proof of evidence prevails.
> 
> ...



We may never know. But the common denominator between SARS and this virus is China and these settings which are conducive to the problem. If even the Chinese authorities acknowledge it as they are back and forthing on the markets situation, there has to be something in it, whether its origin or its perpetuation.


----------



## hja (17 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You realise that markets all over Asia, thousands upon thousands upon thousands of them, sell things like dog, bat, lizard, scorpion, etc, right? I've bought dogs, bats and lizards at markets across Asia (for memory I don't think I've bought scorpions at a wet market, although I've eaten a few I caught myself and have played with them at the markets). In countries neighbouring China and in other countries spread far and wide, these markets continue to operate as normal. My friends still routinely shop at them and if not for the travel bans I would be too. There are conflicting reports about the exact nature of the specific wet market in question (there were many false reports early on, including plenty of deliberate misinformation, with mainstream media in Australia even claiming such nonsense as live koalas being for sale there! I can tell you this is so far beyond untrue it's just insane), but horseshoe bats have never been sold there.
> 
> People are not going to stop eating wild animals any time soon. Anyone who has been to remote, poor areas of the world understands that, and anyone who doesn't understand it is completely naive about what exists in this world. Even in Australia humans routinely eat bats, legally, and this isn't going to change.



I'm not going to respond to your previous post because you keep missing the point and it's a bit repetitive. Already been through the terminology and why it doesn't matter. Wet, dry, it doesn't matter. The crux is the environment, practices of housing and chaotic mixing of pets, exotic animals, jungle meat, usually caged defecating on each other, you name it... and the cross-contamination which wouldn't be limited to but include watering down of prep surfaces in this jumbled zoo of a setting. Yeah you might consider this acceptable but that's your opinion.

This kind of setting might not be an issue for you but at least it has the Chinese authorities paying more attention to it again. So it's not just the "wet" part per se.

Australian humans might be eating cockroaches or koalas legally or illegally but that's not the point. Again, It's the environment we're discussing. I don't see why you find that so hard to understand.


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## satanoperca (17 April 2020)

hja said:


> We may never know. But the common denominator between SARS and this virus is China and these settings which are conducive to the problem. If even the Chinese authorities acknowledge it as they are back and forthing on the markets situation, there has to be something in it.




You make no sense. You argue for one thing, but cannot construct a logic agreement for.

Wish you all the best with trying to understand complex issues, the thing is sdjaii tried to give you real world insight into the situation, but if you have never experienced, you will fail to understand.


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## sptrawler (17 April 2020)

Getting back to the economic implications, the market is still climbing toward the 6000 mark, where to from there will be interesting.
Is it a pump and dump, or does the market really believe there has been an over reaction?


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## Country Lad (17 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Getting back to the economic implications, the market is still climbing toward the 6000 mark, where to from there will be interesting.
> Is it a pump and dump, or does the market really believe there has been an over reaction?




 FOMO


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## sptrawler (17 April 2020)

One thing I have noticed, my BIL who was complaining of no work last year, now can't scratch himself he is so busy, he is a glazier self employed.
The other thing a lot of my friends are grandparents, they are getting fed up with having to babysit because their kids are all still working.
I'm sure travel, hospitality and discretionary retail is being hammered, I'm not so sure on the rest of the economy.
It certainly is hard to fathom.


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## matty77 (17 April 2020)

Every country would be stuffing around with these sorts of viruses in a lab, they would be stupid not to be doing this sort of research. The Wuhan lab was one such lab but it had a poor record in the past when it came to people getting infected that are working in the lab. If China was playing around with this virus in a lab I dont have an issue with it as everyone else is probably doing the same, BUT if that is the case (which seems highly likely) they just need to come out and admit it.

If any of this had happened in another country you can bet they would have been way more up front about what happened and where it came from. China Government are hiding stuff, its just a fact and they cant be trusted at all.

Its a sad day when "saving face" for the CPC is more important then saving thousands or potentially millions of lives - yet this has always been the case when it comes to the CPC. As i have said previously, dont mix up the CPC and the Chinese people - the people are wonderful people who are oppressed and have no choice, the CPC is the issue here.


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## sptrawler (17 April 2020)

There are two threads, one on general discussion and one on economic ramifications, can we try and keep them seperate to stop clutter.
It includes me, Ive probably digressed also.


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## hja (17 April 2020)

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fe...rs-suggests-higher-COVID-19-death-toll-Report

A major drop of 21 million cellphone users in China over the past few months may indicate a higher death toll due to the coronavirus than what the Chinese government has officially announced, a report by The Epoch Times newspaper, which opposes the Communist Party of China, suggests.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued on March 19 the latest statistics of the number of phone users in each province in February 2020.

Compared with the previous announcement, which was released on December 18, 2019, for November 2019 data, cellphone users dropped dramatically.

The number of cellphone users decreased from 1.601 billion to 1.58 billion, a drop of 21 million.

“The Chinese regime requires all Chinese to use their cellphones to generate a health code. Only with a green health code are Chinese allowed to move in China now. It’s impossible for a person to cancel his cellphone,” Tang Jingyuan, a US-based China affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times on March 21.
...


----------



## IFocus (17 April 2020)

Country Lad said:


> FOMO





And the higher the market goes the greater the fear.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And this focus on the wet market..which is the official CCP explanation is probably pure BS propaganda, even if it was mot engineered ..my view..it comes from a lab




I doubt that anyone calling for the markets to be shut is really focused on shutting the markets but rather, the aim is to determine the truth not with absolute certainty but as far as practical. 

Actions speak louder than words and whilst not absolute proof, leaving the markets open does diminish the credibility of the Chinese government's theory about them being the source of the virus.


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## Smurf1976 (17 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Reading through recent comments I sense that there is an underlying message from all, that we need to make China accountable for the virus, however it was caused. How do we do we make them accountable??
> The cause of the existence of the virus would be clouded (probably deliberately) and at one point blamed on as a 'natural occurrence'. This then would remove the blame from the community/nation. Was That Wet Market in particular set up as a red herring (natural cause) to hide the root cause, who knows? The wet market being reopened seems to undo the belief or excuse that the market is the root cause, due to other facts, that has exposed the 'red herring'




If an individual or business causes some disaster and points to the direct cause then that is one thing. Depending on circumstances individuals and governments might forgive them if they conclude that it was an unforeseeable situation and so on. 

If they do the same thing again however, well at that point all credibility is destroyed. Either they're outright dumb and haven't learned from past mistakes or they're telling lies as to what really happened hence the lack of fear in doing it again.


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## qldfrog (18 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I doubt that anyone calling for the markets to be shut is really focused on shutting the markets but rather, the aim is to determine the truth not with absolute certainty but as far as practical.
> 
> Actions speak louder than words and whilst not absolute proof, leaving the markets open does diminish the credibility of the Chinese government's theory about them being the source of the virus.



I agree on your last point.
Medicine nobel price who discovered the HIV thinks it is man made and escaped from lab too
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/french-prof-sparks-furor-with-lab-leak-theory/
Note the tone of the article and how it is trying to discredit it...Asia times news..


----------



## qldfrog (18 April 2020)

Arrr apologies..wring thread again..not economic implication
Last night us was exuberant after a PR from a drug maker..funny how people/market can decide to find good news when they want to, and from basically no data...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anal...-gileads-coronavirus-treatment-133340939.html
More details above..


----------



## Sdajii (18 April 2020)

hja said:


> I'm not going to respond to your previous post because you keep missing the point and it's a bit repetitive. Already been through the terminology and why it doesn't matter. Wet, dry, it doesn't matter. The crux is the environment, practices of housing and chaotic mixing of pets, exotic animals, jungle meat, usually caged defecating on each other, you name it... and the cross-contamination which wouldn't be limited to but include watering down of prep surfaces in this jumbled zoo of a setting. Yeah you might consider this acceptable but that's your opinion.
> 
> This kind of setting might not be an issue for you but at least it has the Chinese authorities paying more attention to it again. So it's not just the "wet" part per se.
> 
> Australian humans might be eating cockroaches or koalas legally or illegally but that's not the point. Again, It's the environment we're discussing. I don't see why you find that so hard to understand.




How does it feel to write that long a response and starting it with "I'm not going to respond..."?

So anyway, you want to shut down something you imagine is common but in reality scarcely exists. You don't seem to even be able to articulate what you want shut down. It's comedic that you say "usually caged defecating on each other... you name it". In all my travels in Asia, in all the countless wet markets I've been to, I've very rarely (I could count them on one hand) seen animals caged so that they were defecating on to animals in the cages below. I've seen that in pet markets (in countries including ...Australia) but very rarely at wet markets in Asia. In markets where live food animals are for sale, almost always they are caged in ways where they won't be defecating on each other - again you simply demonstrate how divorced you are from reality when you say they are "usually caged defecating on each other" - your exact words. People buying food don't usually like it being **** on in front of them - bad for sales, even if they have no regard for animal welfare.

In reality, you will 100% not shut down wet markets, which you seem to acknowledge now.
In reality, you will 100% not stop the sale of bushmeat/wild game meat ("jungle meat" as you put it) in any country... including Australia. I can literally buy wild game meat at the local supermarket here in Melbourne!
In reality, you will 100% not stop people washing down surfaces with water, including in Australia (are you smoking crack before writing your posts?)

You are wanting to ban something which exists primarily in your imagination and in propaganda, and is at best difficult to define, and certainly impossible to enforce. Vague guidelines are difficult to enforce at the best of times, and if you think they're going to be enforced in Asia you have no concept of reality. Well, that's clear anyway.

Are you even able to articulate what you want? No sale of pets and meat for human consumption in the same location (haha, good luck with that!). No live animals sold where food is sold (haha! Good luck with that!). No washing down surfaces with water (seriously???). Limiting the number of species of animals being sold as food at one market (LOL). Not having animals caged so they will **** on the animals below (common at pet markets sometimes even in western countries including Australia, but rare in food markets, and utterly unenforceable). What do you want?


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## Value Collector (18 April 2020)

hja said:


> We may never know. But the common denominator between SARS and this virus is China and these settings which are conducive to the problem. If even the Chinese authorities acknowledge it as they are back and forthing on the markets situation, there has to be something in it, whether its origin or its perpetuation.




And the Spanish flu and swine flu both came from the USA.

Both have killed far more than Covid19, why haven’t you been requesting chicken and pig farms be shut down.

since Spanish flu came from chickens in the USA, and Swine flu came from a pig farm in Louisiana USA.


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## Sdajii (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> And the Spanish flu and swine flu both came from the USA.
> 
> Both have killed far more than Covid19, why haven’t you been requesting chicken and pig farms be shut down.
> 
> since Spanish flu came from chickens in the USA, and Swine flu came from a pig farm in Louisiana USA.




It's not an important point, but swine flu started in Mexico and it's not known where Spanish flu started.

100% agree with what you're saying though. There was no call for pigs to be banned in Mexico, and rightly so. MERS came from camels in the middle east. No one said we needed to ban domesticated camels in the middle east!

This thing clearly didn't come from a wet market anyway, but even if it did, you're not going to shut down all wet markets, and the bizarre ideas about wet markets some people apparently have make no sense.


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## sptrawler (19 April 2020)

I think people need to focus on two wrongs dont make a right, where it came from isnt an issue unless they have a vaccine, the focus needs to be on not getting it untill a vaccine is developed.
If Australia can eliminate it and a vaccine is produced, we dodge the bullet.
Nothing better than the power of possitive thought, except when buying shares.


----------



## Value Collector (19 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's not an important point, but swine flu started in Mexico and it's not known where Spanish flu started.
> 
> 100% agree with what you're saying though. There was no call for pigs to be banned in Mexico, and rightly so. MERS came from camels in the middle east. No one said we needed to ban domesticated camels in the middle east!
> 
> This thing clearly didn't come from a wet market anyway, but even if it did, you're not going to shut down all wet markets, and the bizarre ideas about wet markets some people apparently have make no sense.




I just watched a documentary made by a group from Cambridge University that have been studying the Spanish flu for a few years, and they are pretty confident (for a lot of reasons that I can't list here), that the Spanish flu came from Chickens in the USA and spread to pigs before being passed to humans, and was transported to Europe by Soldiers.

Also I heard some where that the strain of swine flu that caused the most damage was genetically linked to a farm in Louisiana.


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## Value Collector (19 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think people need to focus on two wrongs dont make a right, where it came from isnt an issue unless they have a vaccine, the focus needs to be on not getting it untill a vaccine is developed.
> If Australia can eliminate it and a vaccine is produced, we dodge the bullet.
> Nothing better than the power of possitive thought, except when buying shares.




Yeah, These types of things will pop up from time to time all over the world, there is randomness to it, we have had Hendra virus in Australia where horses were passing viruses to humans, we were just lucky that through random chance the virus didn't mutate into something more sinister.


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## sptrawler (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Yeah, These types of things will pop up from time to time all over the world, there is randomness to it, we have had Hendra virus in Australia where horses were passing viruses to humans, we were just lucky that through random chance the virus didn't mutate into something more sinister.



It still could, the infection is still rampant in Africa, god knows what could come back from there? Ebola, sleeping sickness, anyones guess.
The thing with 19 is it is super contagious, if it mutates with a really deady host, $hits are trumps.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Value Collector (19 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It still could, the infection is still rampant in Africa, god knows what could come back from there? Ebola, sleeping sickness, anyones guess.
> The thing with 19 is it is super contagious, if it mutates with a really deady host, $hits are trumps.
> Just my opinion.




Imagine a virus like ebola that spread like the flu, or an aids type virus that was airborne.

Hollywood movies have been made about this stuff, but given enough time anything can evolve.


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Imagine a virus like ebola that spread like the flu, or an aids type virus that was airborne.
> 
> Hollywood movies have been made about this stuff, but given enough time anything can evolve.



Thats what I was saying, but thanks for repeating it, it is very important as it is a huge probability.lol
By the way dont worry about the aids component, apparently it already has it.


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## Smurf1976 (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Both have killed far more than Covid19, why haven’t you been requesting chicken and pig farms be shut down.




I think the issue is people just don't trust the Chinese authorities.

Heck, Chinese people themselves pay a lot of money to avoid eating Chinese products and that says it all. Daigou only exists because of that, people don't trust that what it says on the tin is what's actually in the tin hence the willingness to pay a premium to obtain product directly from a foreign supplier.

The only ones arguing that China doesn't have a problem with food standards are Westerners in fear of being accused of racism. For anyone who doubts it, just google "gutter oil".......


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## Value Collector (19 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think the issue is people just don't trust the Chinese authorities.
> 
> Heck, Chinese people themselves pay a lot of money to avoid eating Chinese products and that says it all. Daigou only exists because of that, people don't trust that what it says on the tin is what's actually in the tin hence the willingness to pay a premium to obtain product directly from a foreign supplier.
> 
> The only ones arguing that China doesn't have a problem with food standards are Westerners in fear of being accused of racism.



I avoid all meat and animal products for various reasons including the disease risks the industry adds to our society, I would also have to flip a coin between trusting China or trusting Trumps administration, hahaha


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> I avoid all meat and animal products for various reasons including the disease risks the industry adds to our society, I would also have to flip a coin between trusting China or trusting Trumps administration, hahaha



There are still plenty of people trying to get to Australia and the U.S.
Not so many trying to force their way into China.


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## Value Collector (19 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There are still plenty of people trying to get to Australia and the U.S.
> Not so many trying to force their way into China.




The reasons they want to go to the USA is not because the love or trust Trumps administration.


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## Sdajii (19 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think people need to focus on two wrongs dont make a right, where it came from isnt an issue unless they have a vaccine, the focus needs to be on not getting it untill a vaccine is developed.
> If Australia can eliminate it and a vaccine is produced, we dodge the bullet.
> Nothing better than the power of possitive thought, except when buying shares.




For various reasons, where it came from is important. It obviously came out of a lab, and if nothing else this means laboratory security needs to be improved (or if it was a deliberate release there are clear accountability issues). Making this definitively known and having appropriate repercussions also discourages others from making the same mistake. Hypothetically, if the market story was true, we may want to take action to prevent similar things happening again.

If your plan is to wait for a vaccine, goodness help us. Even with all the time, resources and medical technology that will ever exist, a vaccine may literally be impossible for this type of virus and it is very unlikely to be possible to produce one which is either reliable or long lasting, let alone both. The power of positive thought can lead us to expect an impossible solution to come, which may make us fail to take more realistic and appropriate action.


----------



## Sdajii (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Imagine a virus like ebola that spread like the flu, or an aids type virus that was airborne.
> 
> Hollywood movies have been made about this stuff, but given enough time anything can evolve.




An ebola type virus is never likely to get too far because it's too deadly and kills hosts too quickly. Even without any fuss made about it, it wouldn't get far, but in the modern world we would be alerted to it extremely quickly (rapid deaths bring quick attention and extreme reaction) and we'd contain it without difficulty.

An airborne (or highly contagious) AIDS type virus would really be nasty. Fortunately it's biologically very unlikely. Highly contagious diseases are generally restricted to the external parts of the body (in a biological sense, your lungs and digestive system are external, as opposed to the blood and internal organs like the liver, brain, kidneys, etc). External systems like the digestive and respiratory system wouldn't be likely to hold on to a virus which worked anything like HIV. If such a thing did exist it would likely infect most of the world.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Making this definitively known and having appropriate repercussions also discourages others from making the same mistake.



Agreed there's a definite need to get to the truth as to what happened and, if it was due to negligence or worse still deliberate, hold them accountable and ensure it doesn't happen again.

It's not like we're talking about some shoddily made consumer product here, this has stuffed the world basically.


----------



## Sdajii (19 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed there's a definite need to get to the truth as to what happened and, if it was due to negligence or worse still deliberate, hold them accountable and ensure it doesn't happen again.
> 
> It's not like we're talking about some shoddily made consumer product here, this has stuffed the world basically.




However you look at it, China committed crimes against humanity. Even if you want to say it came from the market or some other source they couldn't legitimately be held accountable for, covering it up and lying about it for as long as possible, and silencing those trying to alert the world's attention to it have caused the deaths of a great many people and counting, and extreme economic damage. It's impossible to determine exactly how much of the damage could have been mitigated, but it's certainly a considerable rather than trivial percentage. The blatant corruption of the WHO with China pulling the strings to the world's detriment also needs to be dealt with. Fortunately this seems likely. Hopefully this will be the anvil which breaks the camel's back and causes the world to finally wake up to China. Decades overdue but better now than later.


----------



## joeno (19 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> However you look at it, China committed crimes against humanity. Even if you want to say it came from the market or some other source they couldn't legitimately be held accountable for, covering it up and lying about it for as long as possible, and silencing those trying to alert the world's attention to it have caused the deaths of a great many people and counting, and extreme economic damage. It's impossible to determine exactly how much of the damage could have been mitigated, but it's certainly a considerable rather than trivial percentage. The blatant corruption of the WHO with China pulling the strings to the world's detriment also needs to be dealt with. Fortunately this seems likely. Hopefully this will be the anvil which breaks the camel's back and causes the world to finally wake up to China. Decades overdue but better now than later.




"Crimes against humanity" for being a bit slow to react? Does that make Italy guilty of the same crimes? How many trillions should we sue Italy in compensation for these wartime atrocities against the peaceful and benevolent United States of America and Australia.

What about the US under Trump ignoring this virus and calling it a hoax in the very beginning, jeopardizing their population and the people of Earth. I guess he is responsible for the 100,000s deaths in the US and in Europe. So can we all declare war on the US?

It's jumping from one ridiculous assertion to another like gymnastics to muster up hatred and find a way to re-direct the humiliation of one's own failures. Well done. Hope you are feeling better now.

Signed, your local 50c communist marxist government shill


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## joeno (19 April 2020)

How stupid Australians are to blindly follow Trump's America. They are currently pillaging PPE & Medical Supplies from their own allies like Canada and NATO countries.

Coercing Australians away from accepting 5G Huawei infrastructure in a politically ignorant move due to "security breach" nonsense. Great so Aussie internet can be AS CRAPPY going into the 2020s


----------



## qldfrog (19 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Nothing better than the power of possitive thought, except when buying shares






Sdajii said:


> The power of positive thought can lead us to expect an impossible solution to come, which may make us fail to take more realistic and appropriate action.



Where our QLD premier in a public TV speech talk about waiting for a vaccine, this is not positive thinking, this is irresponsibility.
We will not have a working vaccine
Obviously you will not hear it from  labs who just been thrown unlimited money for the next 3y or so, be they private or public


----------



## Value Collector (19 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> An ebola type virus is never likely to get too far because it's too deadly and kills hosts too quickly. Even without any fuss made about it, it wouldn't get far, but in the modern world we would be alerted to it extremely quickly (rapid deaths bring quick attention and extreme reaction) and we'd contain it without difficulty.
> 
> An airborne (or highly contagious) AIDS type virus would really be nasty. Fortunately it's biologically very unlikely. Highly contagious diseases are generally restricted to the external parts of the body (in a biological sense, your lungs and digestive system are external, as opposed to the blood and internal organs like the liver, brain, kidneys, etc). External systems like the digestive and respiratory system wouldn't be likely to hold on to a virus which worked anything like HIV. If such a thing did exist it would likely infect most of the world.




given enough time highly unlikely events are almost certain to happen.


----------



## jbocker (19 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> given enough time highly unlikely events are almost certain to happen.



Even a vaccine or other application that works against Covid-19.


----------



## ducati916 (19 April 2020)

You can plot your risk.




jog on
duc


----------



## Junior (19 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> For various reasons, where it came from is important. It obviously came out of a lab, and if nothing else this means laboratory security needs to be improved (or if it was a deliberate release there are clear accountability issues).




Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets?  Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research?  I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff.  All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin.  The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.

How can you be so sure?


----------



## Humid (19 April 2020)

Junior said:


> Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets?  Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research?  I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff.  All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin.  The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.
> 
> How can you be so sure?




Playing with bats in a lab perhaps


----------



## SirRumpole (19 April 2020)

Humid said:


> Playing with bats in a lab perhaps




Well I suppose even if it did escape from a lab in China you can't necessarily assume malicious intent. 

They may have been doing research to try and find a vaccine, or simply just study how viruses mutate and spread.

If that's the case then China should simply say that's the case and we can move on, otherwise suspicion will spread worse than the virus.


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## qldfrog (19 April 2020)

sure


jbocker said:


> Even a vaccine or other application that works against Covid-19.



40y for AIDS and still nothing after millions and millions of deaths inc in the west,
some treatment after 20y or so;
let's say optimistically 10y?


----------



## qldfrog (19 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> you can't necessarily assume malicious intent.



definitely!But **** happens..


SirRumpole said:


> If that's the case then China should simply say that's the case and we can move on, otherwise suspicion will spread worse than the virus.



China does not care about the rest of the world, what is important is the inner story, the pride and the image of Xi vs the Chinese population
History is being rewritten as we speak by the propaganda master, and the blame is being put on Americans..yeap, this is China...

They will NEVER admit it as long as the CCPis in power, and any clues or witnesses will be disappeared;
I suspect the first victim had no chance of recovering, then carry on alive


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## moXJO (19 April 2020)

SARS escaped twice from a lab in China that caused an outbreak.
It's always a possibility this may have. 

Apparently the genetic sequence of coronavirus was different from the lab around the corner from the wet market. 
That's still not ruling anything out.


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## jbocker (19 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> sure
> 
> 40y for AIDS and still nothing after millions and millions of deaths inc in the west,
> some treatment after 20y or so;
> let's say optimistically 10y?



The big differences are;
the 'prize money' that will be available to those that come up with a credible cure; 
the huge impacts on lifestyles and economies are making countries unitedly demand a cure;
the frightening notion that something more serious will evolve.

We have in the past developed solutions against biology, that have challenged our species. I agree with you that it could take some time and that we probably wont get the full cure but enough to mitigate its rampant spread. It will become another big pharma cash cow.


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## jbocker (19 April 2020)

ducati916 said:


> You can plot your risk.
> 
> View attachment 102450
> 
> ...



Plotted mine. It ends up near the bottom far left. ASF Couch Potato. although some might be top left, but not me.


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## qldfrog (19 April 2020)

Junior said:


> Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets?  Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research?  I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff.  All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin.  The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.
> 
> How can you be so sure?



The root of the virus is a SARS like and come from bats, but where do you find bats in the middle of winter, morever in a situation where it could jump species, and due to its contagion if not happening in wuhan for the jump, why no sign of epidemy down south earlier, Wuhan labs where playing with bats and viruses, this is known, not denied.
whether it has been engineered or not is the only point where we do not really know, but the market origin is crap, it may have acted as the key first contamination point, but not the source, the Nature team had a great article a while back about how to find Patient 0.. no sign of him/her yet and we will never find, but some know.Does the CIA knows and if they do, when will they release this time bomb...that is the worry


----------



## Bill M (19 April 2020)

My apologies if this has been posted before. I find this documentary very informative.

*Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus*
**


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 April 2020)

The headlines will be like budget night (_Beer, ciggies up_) but the $750 is being spent in various ways, as expected. And some are saving it.


> research .. found women are spending the money on groceries, utilities, rent, delivered food and clothing.
> 
> By contrast, men are more likely to spend the cash on automotive goods, games, apps, music, alcohol and insurance.


----------



## Sdajii (20 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Well I suppose even if it did escape from a lab in China you can't necessarily assume malicious intent.
> 
> They may have been doing research to try and find a vaccine, or simply just study how viruses mutate and spread.
> 
> If that's the case then China should simply say that's the case and we can move on, otherwise suspicion will spread worse than the virus.




This is absolutely true, it came out of a lab, but it likely wasn't deliberate. Viruses and other pathogens escape from research labs fairly often, and China has had some pretty nasty examples which are well known, and no doubt many others they've successfully contained and kept quiet. The important thing here is that in this case it has caused the biggest economic problems in the history of the planet, considerable death and suffering, mental health issues, etc etc etc, and we're still in the early stages. If you play with something dangerous you have a responsibility to keep others safe from it, and if you fail to do so, you are liable. This is why we're having the stupid wetmarket story pushed on us, despite how clearly false it is. In the early stages they didn't want to admit it was from a bat (they were researching horseshoe bat viruses at the lab but horseshoe bats aren't found within a thousand kilometres of the market and have never been sold there, so this wasn't something they wanted to be known and at first they tried to say it was from a snake, which is as biologically realistic as saying an earthquake was caused because you were red socks instead of green).


----------



## Sdajii (20 April 2020)

Junior said:


> Hi Sdajii, how come you are so sure this came from a lab, and not wet markets?  Do you have expertise in this area or is this view based on your online research?  I'm not having a go, I don't know anything about this stuff.  All I know is we have all manner of 'experts' commenting on its origin.  The majority of people with expertise with viruses and infectious disease are saying it likely came from bats, and almost certainly not from a lab.
> 
> How can you be so sure?




A little from column A, a little from column B. By training and qualifications I am a biologist, I've worked in genetics and medical research laboratories, I majored in genetics and zoology, I've also spent years living in Asia routinely shopping for staples at wetmarkets, occasionally including fresh bats. If I wasn't trapped in Australia I would have been back in Asia over a month ago (I only planned to be in Australia for 2 weeks, I've spent the last 6 or so years almost exclusively in Asia) and I would have shopped at a wetmarket in either Thailand or Vietnam today. As you might expect, this background gives me a strong interest in the situation and a fairly good ability to grasp it.

Coming from bats and coming from a lab are not mutually exclusive. For now I'll leave aside the possibility of it being genetically altered by humans and just look at a few pieces of evidence. The species in question (horseshoe bats) are a prominent feature at the local virus laboratory where it is open, public knowledge that these viruses were being studied. The first cases of humans infected with COVID-19 occurred before the virus ever got to the market, and they occurred very close to the laboratory (right next to it). China knew about the outbreak for at least about a month before it told the world, and for some time before that there were sickly patients. This gave them plenty of time to check and confirm what they clearly would have known, but they initially said the virus had come from snakes (as a biologist I can tell you that makes as much sense as saying that if you eat a chicken you will be able to breath underwater - reptiles just don't get anything like this virus at all, nothing remotely like that is biologically possible, and any biologist with any relevant background knows it - I was gobsmacked when I heard about the claim and immediately said it 110% was untrue, just like your wife getting pregnant while you were away and claiming it was from a giraffe raping her, it's literally that unrealistic). The species of bat (horseshoe bat) does not occur anywhere remotely near the market or laboratory and has never been sold at the market, but as I said, is a study focus at the laboratory market.

I'm not at all claiming it is a bioweapon (neither can I entirely rule it out), but any bioweapon virus or research virus is based on some natural virus. In fact, entirely naturally occurring viruses can be used as bioweapons, and they are routinely used as research tools in laboratories all over the world. Genetically engineered viruses are also developed as bioweapons in various places, and commonly used as research tools all over the world including in Australia. You've probably had genetically altered viruses deliberately injected into you. I have. Most Australians have. Coming out of a laboratory doesn't necessarily indicate genetically altered or initial malicious intent.

There is ample evidence to show it came out of the virus lab (or probably much, much less likely, it was a deliberate bioweapon attack strategically released at the site of the virus laboratory to make it look like an escape from the lab, but that's getting into some pretty hardcore conspiracy territory, and while it is possible, it's extremely likely and would indicate a laboratory origin anyway). I think in time it probably will be officially acknowledged to have come from a laboratory. The two reasons I think it's not being openly said now are that it would completely terrify the public even though it really doesn't make things more scary, and would cause huge social and political problems ranging from idiots killing or bashing Chinese and probably other Asian-looking people and vandalising their businesses etc, through to high level political issues which they will want to properly prepare for, and have substantial evidence (not just the type of evidence that lets you know something is true, but the type of evidence which is legally binding and publicly understandable).

It would take a very long post to go through the whole Chinese official story and sequence of events, but if you analyse the whole thing it is very clear that China knew a lot more than they were saying early on and were deliberately misleading the rest of the world, hoping to avoid being caught. If you put what they were saying in January and February in context of what is openly known now, it becomes quite obvious, but it's a long and complicated story.


----------



## joeno (20 April 2020)

^ 100% "absolute", "totally", "the actual story is too long". 0% proof. And i thought it was just the Americans that have gone full retard. Theory of evil genius scientists in a lab working for evil genius government. Wait... which country are we talking about again?

This coronavirus dealing by the US government will ruin their reputation (if it wasn't already bad) for decades. They have gone nazi with their claims of deliberate acts of war, and need to receive "wartime reparations". There is no difference in my eye of the US government (& the mob-mentality people honestly) and the terrorist organizations they pillage oil from... whoops i mean fight against in the ME. Bunch of crooks.

And yes i realise the US hasn't pilfered from Australia yet. But just because a crook doesn't mug you doesn't mean they ain't a mugger.


----------



## Junior (20 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> A little from column A, a little from column B. By training and qualifications I am a biologist, I've worked in genetics and medical research laboratories, I majored in genetics and zoology, I've also spent years living in Asia routinely shopping for staples at wetmarkets, occasionally including fresh bats. If I wasn't trapped in Australia I would have been back in Asia over a month ago (I only planned to be in Australia for 2 weeks, I've spent the last 6 or so years almost exclusively in Asia) and I would have shopped at a wetmarket in either Thailand or Vietnam today. As you might expect, this background gives me a strong interest in the situation and a fairly good ability to grasp it.
> ....




Thanks for expanding.  This all makes sense, I initially thought you were indicating it was intentionally created and released, which as you said, is pretty extreme conspiracy theory territory.


----------



## hja (20 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> And the Spanish flu and swine flu both came from the USA.
> 
> Both have killed far more than Covid19, why haven’t you been requesting chicken and pig farms be shut down.
> 
> since Spanish flu came from chickens in the USA, and Swine flu came from a pig farm in Louisiana USA.



Because as I tried to convey to Daji.... I wasn't about what people should eat or not eat or how to police this. No, not my point.

Just the way the condition in which meats are handled and slaughtered. But he was getting carried away with wet markets, where I used "wet" to colour the imagery of how dirty and cramped such settings are like in Wuhan which was named and shamed. So yes it could apply to such farms in Louisiana.

This is why scientists concluded early on, mabne wrongly, that it probably originated from an animal especially bats because of the communicability between humans and animals in these markets. So if not the origin then the propagation.


----------



## Humid (20 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> A little from column A, a little from column B. By training and qualifications I am a biologist, I've worked in genetics and medical research laboratories, I majored in genetics and zoology, I've also spent years living in Asia routinely shopping for staples at wetmarkets, occasionally including fresh bats. If I wasn't trapped in Australia I would have been back in Asia over a month ago (I only planned to be in Australia for 2 weeks, I've spent the last 6 or so years almost exclusively in Asia) and I would have shopped at a wetmarket in either Thailand or Vietnam today. As you might expect, this background gives me a strong interest in the situation and a fairly good ability to grasp it.
> 
> Coming from bats and coming from a lab are not mutually exclusive. For now I'll leave aside the possibility of it being genetically altered by humans and just look at a few pieces of evidence. The species in question (horseshoe bats) are a prominent feature at the local virus laboratory where it is open, public knowledge that these viruses were being studied. The first cases of humans infected with COVID-19 occurred before the virus ever got to the market, and they occurred very close to the laboratory (right next to it). China knew about the outbreak for at least about a month before it told the world, and for some time before that there were sickly patients. This gave them plenty of time to check and confirm what they clearly would have known, but they initially said the virus had come from snakes (as a biologist I can tell you that makes as much sense as saying that if you eat a chicken you will be able to breath underwater - reptiles just don't get anything like this virus at all, nothing remotely like that is biologically possible, and any biologist with any relevant background knows it - I was gobsmacked when I heard about the claim and immediately said it 110% was untrue, just like your wife getting pregnant while you were away and claiming it was from a giraffe raping her, it's literally that unrealistic). The species of bat (horseshoe bat) does not occur anywhere remotely near the market or laboratory and has never been sold at the market, but as I said, is a study focus at the laboratory market.
> 
> ...




I just got home from the bottle shop but passed a giraffe going in the opposite direction.....should  I be concerned


----------



## Sdajii (20 April 2020)

Junior said:


> Thanks for expanding.  This all makes sense, I initially thought you were indicating it was intentionally created and released, which as you said, is pretty extreme conspiracy theory territory.




That wouldn't be a conspiracy at all. A conspiracy is two or more parties conspiring together towards a common goal. China could simply develop a bioweapon (I don't think anyone fails to realise that bioweapons actually are a real thing, right? We all know China obviously does have them, right?) and... decide to release it. That would only require one party (CCP is by far the most obvious candidate, but not the only possible one) to consider it to be strategically advantageous and go for it, alone (you can't have a single player acting alone and forming a conspiracy, by definition). This would not be a conspiracy, thus theorising that it happened would not be a conspiracy theory in any sense. There are plenty of realistic motives that China or even other parties could have had for releasing it.

Having said that, I'm not saying that this was a deliberate release of a bioweapon or that it was ever intended to be a bioweapon (or the opposite in either case - I don't have enough evidence to come to any definite conclusions there, and the best available information relevant to answering those questions is dubious from all sources and highly contradictory), just that it came out of a laboratory rather than a market, that much is clear.


----------



## Sdajii (21 April 2020)

hja said:


> Because as I tried to convey to Daji.... I wasn't about what people should eat or not eat or how to police this. No, not my point.
> 
> Just the way the condition in which meats are handled and slaughtered. But he was getting carried away with wet markets, where I used "wet" to colour the imagery of how dirty and cramped such settings are like in Wuhan which was named and shamed. So yes it could apply to such farms in Louisiana.
> 
> This is why scientists concluded early on, mabne wrongly, that it probably originated from an animal especially bats because of the communicability between humans and animals in these markets. So if not the origin then the propagation.




Do you realise that viruses can only replicate inside a living host (even under laboratory conditions they need living host cells to replicate in), never inside a lifeless body, and no live bats of any species were at the market? (or dead horseshoe bats for that matter). They don't sell live pangolins there either, or other ridiculous things falsely reported by the media such as live koalas! I was astonished when I heard such absurd reports on the news! Live koalas of all things! How do you propose the market was responsible for propagating the virus with no potential hosts other than humans? You can't infect a dead animal with a virus, it's biologically nonsensical; a dead animal is literally a much worse environment for a virus than a clean, dry bench. The only way the virus could have propagated at the market would be by humans congregating, which would be exactly the same issue if they were at a vegetable market or confectionery market or chess tournament or book club or arm wrestling championship where no refreshments were served. 

You were the one saying that 'market surfaces being washed with water' was a bad thing, not me! You were the one completely unable to define what the problem you had was, and demonstrating a complete lack of understanding or familiarity with the imagined problem you were complaining about.


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## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Do you realise that viruses can only replicate inside a living host (even under laboratory conditions they need living host cells to replicate in), never inside a lifeless body, and no live bats of any species were at the market?




Viruses can be spread by dead bodies, Just because an animal has died (or been slaughtered) and is no longer possible of having virus cells replicate inside its cells, doesn't mean that the dead body is not still carrying viable virus cells which can infect people if they come into contact with it directly or via contamination.

In fact a medical examiner caught corona virus from a dead body, So it would seem totally plausible that a dead body market could spread the virus, especially if people are eating those infected bodies, all it would take is one worker to become infected and then he/she would pass it along to other customers and workers.

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-dead-body-spread-virus-1497674


> The only way the virus could have propagated at the market would be by humans congregating, which would be exactly the same issue if they were at a vegetable market




Vegetables are not likely to be carrying the virus where as dead bodies can.

So a market chopping up and selling dead bodies carries much more risk than a fruit and veg market.


----------



## Sdajii (21 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> Viruses can be spread by dead bodies, Just because an animal has died (or been slaughtered) and is no longer possible of having virus cells replicate inside its cells, doesn't mean that the dead body is not still carrying viable virus cells which can infect people if they come into contact with it directly or via contamination.




This is entirely true, but if you go back and reread the relevant posts, he said "propagation" and I said they could only do this in living cells. There is no potential for dead animals to dramatically spread a virus, and unclean conditions don't contribute (this is entirely different from the case with other types of pathogens such as bacteria, but COVID-19 is a virus). 



> In fact a medical examiner caught corona virus from a dead body, So it would seem totally plausible that a dead body market could spread the virus, especially if people are eating those infected bodies, all it would take is one worker to become infected and then he/she would pass it along to other customers and workers.
> 
> https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-dead-body-spread-virus-1497674




This was well publicised and yes, I read about it earlier today. It was big news because despite so many people being infected and the number of infected human corpses which other humans have had to deal with is well into six digits, this was the very first documented case (often publicised today as the actual first case, which is probably not true) of a human being infected from something dead. Clearly, if this is so rare and unusual that it is the first known case of a human being infected from something dead, it was never a common thing. Indeed, patient zero (the first known case was not infected at the market and had nothing to do with the market) didn't give it to dead animals and spread it around, patient zero, who as far as we know was the source of the entire pandemic, gave it to other people while alive and every single known infection route between patient zero and this one report you speak of, has been from one live human to another live human. We literally only know of two exceptions (patient zero and this case) out of all the millions of known human infections which have occurred so far!

So, it's far to say that blaming the proliferation on dead animals is completely and utterly out of the question. Even if you want to believe the conclusively debunked market origin story, only patient zero was infected from a bat/pangolin/snake/koala, and from there it was all human to human. Even if we buy China's own story wholesale, we have to believe that in Europe and the USA, we've seen it spread far more aggressively in the absense of wet markets, pangolins, horseshoe bats, koalas, etc, than it ever did in China.


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## jbocker (21 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> In fact a medical examiner caught corona virus from a dead body, So it would seem totally plausible that a dead body market could spread the virus, especially if people are eating those infected bodies, all it would take is one worker to become infected and then he/she would pass it along to other customers and workers.



Holy Heck VC I thought you were talking about cannibalism when I first read this.
Yes if you can 'catch' a virus off a tap handle or tin cans then I can imagine you can catch it from a dead body (handling it ...without eating it).


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## qldfrog (21 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Yes if you can 'catch' a virus off a tap handle or tin cans then I can imagine you can catch it from a dead body (handling it ...without eating it).



And exactly as you would with a grocery item in our supermarkets when an infected person cough onor touch it 
Being a virus means it only stay alive within a body or living cell, otherwise it dies very quickly
That market played a role as a concentration point of PEOPLE
It could have been an electronic fair and be the same
Good or bad hygiene there is irrelevant.
All this would be very different if we were talking about tuberculosis with bacillus/bacterial illness
Virus will be human to human transmission only except statistically insignificant first inter species jump.
Do people realise that following this wet market fairy story is just falling in with the CCP propaganda?and probably our own governments...


----------



## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This is entirely true, but if you go back and reread the relevant posts, he said "propagation" and I said they could only do this in living cells. There is no potential for dead animals to dramatically spread a virus, and unclean conditions don't contribute (this is entirely different from the case with other types of pathogens such as bacteria, but COVID-19 is a virus).
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So the Wet markets are not just as safe as a vegetable market, because obviously bringing in infected dead bodies, and chopping them up, and handing them out to people is dangerous.


----------



## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Holy Heck VC I thought you were talking about cannibalism when I first read this.
> Yes if you can 'catch' a virus off a tap handle or tin cans then I can imagine you can catch it from a dead body (handling it ...without eating it).




Well a wet market (or butcher shop) is a market selling dead bodies, I am just calling it what it is.

it would be silly to assume a dead body of an infected Bat or pangolin is safe because we call it meat, instead of a dead body.


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## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And exactly as you would with a grocery item in our supermarkets when an infected person cough onor touch it
> Being a virus means it only stay alive within a body or living cell, otherwise it dies very quickly
> That market played a role as a concentration point of PEOPLE
> It could have been an electronic fair and be the same
> ...




That is not true, bodies infected with viruses can infect people who come into contract with the blood or other fluids long after the animal has been dead.

Look at the article I posted, A medical examiner caught corona virus from a dead body he was examining, and that was without eating it.

Ebola victims for example are sealed in an air tight body bag and cremated due to the risk of transmission, and autopsy or any preparation of Ebola victims is banned.

If you think doing an autopsy on a dead body is dangerous, but chopping up, bagging, selling and then eating the dead body is safe, you are crazy.

it’s quite possible as infected animal or animals were butchered and their body fluids passed the virus on to humans directly and well as through cross contamination.

then once a few people at the markets had it, they continued passing it on through the air and surfaces.


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## Humid (21 April 2020)

Isn't it why there's no hand sanitizer?


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## hja (21 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> So the Wet markets are not just as safe as a vegetable market, because obviously bringing in infected dead bodies, and chopping them up, and handing them out to people is dangerous.



Spread, propagate, pass on... semantics


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## hja (21 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You were the one saying that 'market surfaces being washed with water' was a bad thing, not me! You were the one completely unable to define what the problem you had was, and demonstrating a complete lack of understanding or familiarity with the imagined problem you were complaining about.



Ah no maybe your lack of understanding and imagination of what I was writing. I was providing the context...

Wouldn't you say an eclectic mix of rodents, rabbits, dogs, wild animals, and so on in a tight area with humans would be conducive to the spread of a disease?

For your imagination...


----------



## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

hja said:


> Spread, propagate, pass on... semantics




Watch this short video, or even just the first 30 seconds of it to see that Ebola (another virus), has been passed on to humans via the bushmeat markets.


----------



## basilio (21 April 2020)

Where is the credible engine to drive economic activity out of the COVID 19 crisis ? Anyone else have a better plan ?
 
* Green energy could drive Covid-19 recovery with $100tn boost *
Speeding up investment could deliver huge gains to global GDP by 2050 while tackling climate emergency, says report

Renewable energy could power an economic recovery from Covid-19 by spurring global GDP gains of almost $100tn (£80tn) between now and 2050, according to a report.

The International Renewable Energy Agency found that accelerating investment in renewable energy could generate huge economic benefits while helping to tackle the global climate emergency.

The agency’s director general, Francesco La Camera, said the global crisis ignited by the coronavirus outbreak exposed “the deep vulnerabilities of the current system” and urged governments to invest in renewable energy to kickstart economic growth and help meet climate targets.

The agency’s landmark report found that accelerating investment in renewable energy would help tackle the climate crisis and would in effect pay for itself.

Investing in renewable energy would deliver global GDP gains of $98tn above a business-as-usual scenario by 2050 by returning between $3 and $8 on every dollar invested.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ecovery-international-renewable-energy-agency


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## Sdajii (21 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> So the Wet markets are not just as safe as a vegetable market, because obviously bringing in infected dead bodies, and chopping them up, and handing them out to people is dangerous.




Incorrect.

The assertion, and what I was responding to, was that the virus could be taken to the market and then proliferate/multiply there.

Even according to the wetmarket narrative which some official sources are still trying to push, this isn't what happened. This is what one poster here suggested, which makes no sense.

Even according to the official narratives which involved the wet market, it was merely the source of the initial infection in a single freak event, and from there it has been exclusively live human to live human, except in the one single case where someone caught it from a human corpse.


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## qldfrog (21 April 2020)

hja said:


> Spread, propagate, pass on... semantics



Sure as long as , and i do not think you want to understand this , that you agree it would have been the very same in a busy clothing market
IF this had been the case, would you argue we should close all clothing shops because this is where the disease got shared?
Selling wild animal where you can to see them slaughtered on the spot might be shocking, we even have the vegan snowflakes tipping in etc fair as long it is not mixed with the issue on hand which is the coronavirus. Another problem, another combat if you want, but not related
What next? Greta arguing that it is caused by global warming as you know, germs like warm conditions?

you need to realise all this is playing hand in hand with the CPP; some do not even hide their masters here but I doubt you would consider yourself a Xi shrill @hja?
so try to step back and reread what has been explained probably badly by both @Sdajii , myself and others
If need be, read on viruses, inter species bridges and then get some more details on the labs in Wuhan playing with coronavirus or live bats in their research labs and make your own opinion.


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## Sdajii (21 April 2020)

hja said:


> Ah no maybe your lack of understanding and imagination of what I was writing. I was providing the context...
> 
> Wouldn't you say an eclectic mix of rodents, rabbits, dogs, wild animals, and so on in a tight area with humans would be conducive to the spread of a disease?
> 
> For your imagination...




I've been to many hundreds, perhaps over a thousand wet markets, in many different countries across Asia. I've never seen anything like that at a wet market, the closest to it I've seen is at pet markets and non wet markets (and Australia has cases where domestic animals are stacked atop each other too - go to rural markets in Australia and you'll see fowl in cages stacked atop each other). What you have there is two common domestic species (dogs and rabbits) in contact with each other. This doesn't pose a particularly significant disease risk, and is just some out of context picture from somewhere. I'm not exactly condoning this, it does look like an animal welfare issue (important as it may be, it's an entirely different issue).

Your own picture, with zero context, which is likely not even from China, doesn't even give any indication that it was at a wet market!


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## qldfrog (21 April 2020)

back to the economic side:
Got some potentially good news for exporters:
as long as you are australian based, pay your taxes here , in cases like mine (selling services O/S) you should be able to qualify due to some ATO rulings in 2018 in term of what is australian turnover.
Fair as otherwise, why should i pay taxes here? Anyway, all this coming from a decent accountant office
I will so apply and may survive the flight bans


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## Value Collector (21 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Incorrect.
> 
> The assertion, and what I was responding to, was that the virus could be taken to the market and then proliferate/multiply there.
> 
> ...




You seemed to be implying that because viruses can’t replicate inside dead bodies, that a wet market would be no different in risk level to a vegetable market.

Now to me, this seems like a silly thing to say, given that if the dead bodies being cut up at the market  being cut up and sold are infected, then it is obviously much riskier than cutting up fruit and veg.

Yes person to person transmission is the same risk at either market, but the dead animal market obviously has an extra layer of risk e.g The infected body parts being sold.


----------



## Sdajii (22 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> You seemed to be implying that because viruses can’t replicate inside dead bodies, that a wet market would be no different in risk level to a vegetable market.
> 
> Now to me, this seems like a silly thing to say, given that if the dead bodies being cut up at the market  being cut up and sold are infected, then it is obviously much riskier than cutting up fruit and veg.
> 
> Yes person to person transmission is the same risk at either market, but the dead animal market obviously has an extra layer of risk e.g The infected body parts being sold.




I specifically pointed out otherwise. Your desire to assume I said something I didn't, rather than read what I actually said, is your own fault, not mine.

The hypothetical single-case origin of a virus entering the human population is a separate issue than the proliferation of a virus. One is plausible at any place humans come into contact with animals, especially if alive but potentially if dead, but the scenario suggested, which is the one I was responding to, makes zero sense; you can not make a virus replicate in a dead body. You can not infect a dead body with a virus (this is unlike other pathogens such as many bacteria, which can proliferate in dead tissue).

If I had COVID-19 and I went to a market which exclusively sold dead bats of any species you like, or dead pangolins, or dead snakes, or dead whatever animal you like, it would be no more dangerous than a vegetable market or chess tournament.

No one, not China/CCP, not the WHO, not the American government, not any official source, is saying that anyone other than patient zero and one single person who caught the virus from a human corpse, has contracted COVID-19 from any source other than a living human. Even the wetmarket narrative says an initial person was infected at the market, and everyone after that that was infected from human to human transfer, including the single case of someone catching it from a human corpse.

Hypothetically, if the thing you describe was the big problem we should be worried about, that is, animals are a market catching a disease from humans and replicating it, then infecting humans with the same disease, the only relevant problem would be live animals of a single species coming into contact with humans, and then being infected while still alive, and then either while still alive or sufficiently fresh to still be contagious, coming into contact with more humans. In that scenario, different species coming into contact with each other would be irrelevant. Indeed, even in the wetmarket scenario, even according to the most plausible version of the narrative, different species of animals coming into contact with each other at the market is impossible to have been a factor.

It's probably worth saying, because you've already made the mistake, that you should read the context of what I'm saying and not misapply it to other contexts.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> back to the economic side:
> 
> Got some potentially good news for exporters:
> as long as you are australian based, pay your taxes here , in cases like mine (selling services O/S) you should be able to qualify due to some ATO rulings in 2018 in term of what is australian turnover.
> s




Denmark has become one of the first countries to ban companies that are registered in tax havens from accessing financial aid during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Nordic country, which has spent billions on aid for companies experiencing drastic drops in revenues due to a wide-ranging government lockdown, announced an extended aid package worth 100 billion Danish crowns ($22 billion) on Saturday.
.But in an amendment to the aid measures, which now total close to 400 billion crowns, companies registered in tax haven countries will no longer be eligible for aid.

Additionally, firms applying for an extension of Danish state aid must now promise not to pay dividends or make share buy-backs in 2020 and 2021, it said.

The new restriction applies to firms registered in countries on the European Union's list of "non-cooperative tax jurisdictions", according to Rune Lund, tax spokesman for the leftist Red-Green Alliance. The government said companies would be allowed to pay dividends again if they pay back aid.

Poland, one of Europe's most vocal opponents of tax havens, was the first to restrict large firms' access to state aid based on whether they pay taxes in Poland earlier this month.

Estimates of tax evasion vary widely, but tax havens collectively could cost governments between $US500 billion ($788 billion) and $US600 billion a year in lost revenue from corporates, according to some researchers
_Reuters_


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## qldfrog (22 April 2020)

I


Dona Ferentes said:


> Denmark has become one of the first countries to ban companies that are registered in tax havens from accessing financial aid during the coronavirus pandemic.
> 
> The Nordic country, which has spent billions on aid for companies experiencing drastic drops in revenues due to a wide-ranging government lockdown, announced an extended aid package worth 100 billion Danish crowns ($22 billion) on Saturday.
> .But in an amendment to the aid measures, which now total close to 400 billion crowns, companies registered in tax haven countries will no longer be eligible for aid.
> ...



 Hope you do not assume i am registered in a tax heaven?;-)
No just fair dinkum Australian asic pty ltd but most income from OS in the past few years.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Hope you do not assume i am registered in a tax heaven?;-)
> No just fair dinkum Australian asic pty ltd but most income from OS in the past few years.



No, just wanting the thread to get back onto *economic aspects*

I think there are going to be many amazing implications of this virus. To quote Comrade V I Ulyanov
_"There are *decades* where *nothing happens*, and there are weeks where *decades happen*_.”

I would prefer to focus on issues and not go up cul-de-sacs (like wet markets). And if we can't achieve reform now, what hope is there?


----------



## Value Collector (22 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I specifically pointed out otherwise. Your desire to assume I said something I didn't, rather than read what I actually said, is your own fault, not mine.
> 
> The hypothetical single-case origin of a virus entering the human population is a separate issue than the proliferation of a virus. One is plausible at any place humans come into contact with animals, especially if alive but potentially if dead, but the scenario suggested, which is the one I was responding to, makes zero sense; you can not make a virus replicate in a dead body. You can not infect a dead body with a virus (this is unlike other pathogens such as many bacteria, which can proliferate in dead tissue).
> 
> ...




you said what you said, you were wrong on that point, You have trouble admitting when you get some details wrong,  I am bored of the back and forth, so bye.


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## basilio (22 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> No, just wanting the thread to get back onto *economic aspects*
> 
> I think there are going to be many amazing implications of this virus. To quote Comrade V I Ulyanov
> _"There are *decades* where *nothing happens*, and there are weeks where *decades happen*_.”
> ...




Thanks. That is what this thread is about.
This analysis from the ABC explores the impact of the COVID 19 crisis on globalization and our national capacity to meet our needs. Much to consider. Check it out

*Analysis*
*When insular replaces open: How could COVID-19 affect the global economy?*

Scott Morrison loves to talk about "the other side" and has built an imagery centred around it. There's the road in, the bridge across and the road out.

While the COVID-19 pandemic has forced the Federal Government to abandon many of its long-held beliefs about economic management, particularly in regard to welfare and the role of government in the economy, the Prime Minister has been adamant that this is temporary; a short and sharp response to a crisis.

But, just as the pandemic suddenly derailed the Coalition's immediate plan for a return to budget surplus and continued tax cuts, it may well prove to be the deciding factor in a much bigger shift that ultimately could reshape the global economy.

The "road out" may head in an entirely different direction to the one we travelled towards the chasm and the bridge may need to be much longer than many now imagine.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/how-could-coronavirus-affect-the-global-economy/12163198


----------



## qldfrog (22 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> No, just wanting the thread to get back onto *economic aspects*
> 
> I think there are going to be many amazing implications of this virus. To quote Comrade V I Ulyanov
> _"There are *decades* where *nothing happens*, and there are weeks where *decades happen*_.”
> ...



Agree, was just thinking about new opportunities etc products acts i could develop.but to be honest i do not see how i could do this here.even now..
I have ideas but..
We need strong changes: taxes ,attitudes,regulations, red tapes..honestly i am doubtful
Let's hope...


----------



## basilio (22 April 2020)

Came across this interview with Danielle DiMartino  Booth (who ? ).
Big picture view of the economic future post COVID 19'


----------



## basilio (22 April 2020)

Another view to consider


----------



## Sdajii (22 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> you said what you said, you were wrong on that point, You have trouble admitting when you get some details wrong,  I am bored of the back and forth, so bye.




Except that I wasn't. You're literally guilty of what you accuse me of. Glad for you to say 'bye'.


----------



## jbocker (22 April 2020)

basilio said:


> Came across this interview with Danielle DiMartino  Booth (who ? ).
> Big picture view of the economic future post COVID 19'




1st half well worth listening to.


----------



## wayneL (22 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Agree, was just thinking about new opportunities etc products acts i could develop.but to be honest i do not see how i could do this here.even now..
> I have ideas but..
> We need strong changes: taxes ,attitudes,regulations, red tapes..honestly i am doubtful
> Let's hope...



It's actually a really big opportunity for us to reshape our economy and society for better... Well hopefully, and there may be some disagreement about what "better" actually is.

It would involve a great deal of financial pain for some, always winners and losses in any change.

Unfortunately I don't see any sign of our government being on board with anything except perpetuation of the current corporatocratic(sic) part dystopia.... so share your pessimism there.

It would have to be a grass roots movement of we proles.... but I wonder if there is enough of a critical mass of people awake enough?


----------



## Value Collector (22 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Except that I wasn't. You're literally guilty of what you accuse me of. Glad for you to say 'bye'.



You were suggesting that because no live animals are sold at the market the market they couldn't have any added risk of the virus other than what you would get at a fruit and veg market.

This is clearly untrue.

But anyway, twist things however you like and retreat to a different point other than the one I was addressing, I don't care I am out.


----------



## Country Lad (22 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> You were suggesting that because no live animals are sold at the market the market they couldn't have any added risk of the virus other than what you would get at a fruit and veg market.
> 
> This is clearly untrue.
> 
> But anyway, twist things however you like and retreat to a different point other than the one I was addressing, I don't care I am out.




I would really prefer that you continue the argument as PMs.  It has nothing to do with the Economic implication of COVID 19 which is what this thread is about


----------



## jbocker (22 April 2020)

wayneL said:


> It would involve a great deal of financial pain for some...



It think there will a LOT more than some, and if we not see that much here, we will see it in abundance in other nations. It will be about how much debt you carry vs how flaky your income is understood.


wayneL said:


> It would have to be a grass roots movement of we proles.... but I wonder if there is enough of a critical mass of people awake enough?



The middle class with the debt is the critical mass.


----------



## wayneL (22 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> It think there will a LOT more than some, and if we not see that much here, we will see it in abundance in other nations. It will be about how much debt you carry vs how flaky your income is understood.
> 
> The middle class with the debt is the critical mass.



 and my fears that the middle class are largely absolutely asleep


----------



## hja (22 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Sure as long as , and i do not think you want to understand this , that you agree it would have been the very same in a busy clothing market
> IF this had been the case, would you argue we should close all clothing shops because this is where the disease got shared?
> Selling wild animal where you can to see them slaughtered on the spot might be shocking, we even have the vegan snowflakes tipping in etc fair as long it is not mixed with the issue on hand which is the coronavirus. Another problem, another combat if you want, but not related
> What next? Greta arguing that it is caused by global warming as you know, germs like warm conditions?
> ...



I don't think you can compare a local or insular population with one that has remote or exotic outsiders introduced into it. A clothing market isn't exactly a wet market.
I'm no fan of Greta but if you'd heard some of the narrative or seen some of the footage of these wet markets or been there!, your tune might change somewhat.

A shrilling shill for the CCP? With no connection or nothing in common with their culture or language: Haha very funny! well I do expect they will be our masters, maybe even sooner rather than later, seriously... Hard not to see otherwise.

I'm still open, frangin, but I'm not dismissing the animal origin idea or it playing some part in it somehow, either.


----------



## jbocker (22 April 2020)

wayneL said:


> and my fears that the middle class are largely absolutely asleep



Agree but I am hoping they are focussing on beating the bug for the moment. While doing that contemplating their real financial situation and from there change their way wrt to working to reduce debt and getting more than a few weeks cover in their budget (start a budget). This will happen when we tire of playing about getting dressed up to put the bins out. On debt I think there has been a change to lessen debt, with the house price falls over the last couple of years, the virus effects, is a massive new injection of pain for those who are yet to have a lesson.
With that pain and knowledge we then make the demands on govt to make our employment living and lifestyle a lot more self sustaining. Whatever that takes.

I really hope that people wont run off in riots as in some countries,  I trust Aussies continue to work together. It is far more smarter thing to do.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> It will be about how much debt you carry vs how flaky your income is.
> The middle class with the debt is the critical mass.



Why single out one cohort? Utilising debt to (hopefully) enhance one's financial position has been the only game in town, across all socio-economic groups. Especially when the Central Bank Put (Bernanke, Powell, Draghi, Xi, RBA & etc, around the world) is evidence enough that risk has been squashed <technically; mispriced>. Then something comes along, very much left field, and what were thought to be _sure things_ are shown to be dangerously, damagingly *risky*.

That's not to deny there is a random element of bad luck at play. It is, as you imply, the sheer scale of the dislocation and its speed that is creating chaos.


----------



## basilio (22 April 2020)

I highlighted the "economic opportunities"  offered by Livingstone  International during the COVID 19 crisis.
Essentially they had  pricked their ears and were going full charge on  pricing for  PPE items.

Finally been picked up by the media..

*Medical supply company charging $786 for a box of 20 face masks accused of exploiting coronavirus crisis*
7.30
By Grace Tobin

Pharmacist Linda Nguyen is a loyal customer of Livingstone International, which manufactures and supplies a large range of medical equipment to hospitals, aged care centres, pathology labs and government departments across Australia.

She says the company's prices for face masks have soared since the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed panic buying in Australia.

"When we had some quotes from the company back in January a box of the N95 masks would cost about $40," Ms Nguyen told 7.30.

"Now they would cost about $700-$800 depending on the brand, and that would be about 20 masks per box."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...harging-$786-for-single-box-of-masks/12166438


----------



## PZ99 (22 April 2020)

wayneL said:


> It's actually a really big opportunity for us to reshape our economy and society for better... Well hopefully, and there may be some disagreement about what "better" actually is.



Well we won't partake in invading other countries for oil. So that's better... and cheaper


----------



## Sdajii (22 April 2020)

Value Collector said:


> You were suggesting that because no live animals are sold at the market the market they couldn't have any added risk of the virus other than what you would get at a fruit and veg market.
> 
> This is clearly untrue.
> 
> But anyway, twist things however you like and retreat to a different point other than the one I was addressing, I don't care I am out.




That's not what I said. I said if you or I were infected and were the source of the infection, going to a market with dead animals being sold would be no more dangerous than going to a vegetable market or arm wrestling tournament etc.

If you are talking about a scenario where no humans are yet infected, and you're looking for the source of a new virus infecting a patient zero, then extremely low as the risk is, obviously it is higher at a dead animal market than a vegetable market.

You're the only one twisting things, pretending that I was saying the first thing in the second context, which I never did.


----------



## Humid (22 April 2020)

Sdajii said:


> That's not what I said. I said if you or I were infected and were the source of the infection, going to a market with dead animals being sold would be no more dangerous than going to a vegetable market or arm wrestling tournament etc.
> 
> If you are talking about a scenario where no humans are yet infected, and you're looking for the source of a new virus infecting a patient zero, then extremely low as the risk is, obviously it is higher at a dead animal market than a vegetable market.
> 
> You're the only one twisting things, pretending that I was saying the first thing in the second context, which I never did.




well you have the animal market and the vegetable market what about the stock market?


----------



## ducati916 (23 April 2020)

Agricultural impact:

_Murphy’s Law in the farm belt.  This morning, Tyson Foods, Inc. announced the closing of its Waterloo, Iowa pork plant (the company’s largest) until further notice.  Results of the planned testing of its 2,800-strong workforce will determine the timing of the plant's reopening. 

That’s the third major pork-related closure in the past two weeks, after fellow meat giants JBS S.A. and Smithfield Foods, Inc. shuttered large facilities in Minnesota and South Dakota, respectively.  In total, the three closed plants represent roughly 15% of domestic capacity.  “Most of the trade believes these plants will be up and running by the first week in May,” Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, Inc., told Bloomberg.  “The concern is that they are not.”

As plant closures roil supply, the evaporation of demand from restaurants and hotels further complicates life for the farm belt.  As the Financial Times notes today, repurposing foodstuffs meant for commercial consumption to grocery stores is a tall order due to sometimes drastically different specifications for each category. Instead, farmers across the country have resorted to destroying their crops, in an echo of the early 1930s.

“We’re definitely taking on water really fast right now,” Jen Sorenson, incoming president of the National Pork Producers Council, told the FT.  “The loss of packing capacity [from shuttered plants] is terrifying to producers because there is no place to take market animals.” According to data compiled by Axios, the beef, pork and dairy industries anticipate a combined $21.6 billion in losses owing to pandemic-related disruptions, outstripping the $16 billion in direct federal aid promised by the U.S. Department of Agriculture last week. 

Things were far from hunky dory prior to the pandemic, as domestic farm debt hit a record high $416 billion in 2019, compared to $88 billion in farm income (of which roughly 40% came from government assistance). Distress among farmers began to creep higher last year, with the 30-day past due rate of agricultural loans reaching 2.06% in the fourth quarter according to the Federal Reserve, the highest since 2011 and more than double that seen at the end of 2015. In the 12 months through September, 580 farms declared Chapter 12 bankruptcy according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, up 24% from the prior year and a seven-year high.

Meanwhile, corn prices are under a two-fronted assault, as sharply curtailed gasoline demand reduces the need for corn-based ethanol, while lower pork prices and reduced pig supplies further upset the supply vs. demand equation.  An anonymity-seeking investor walks Grant’s through the grim math for pork farmers: 

Across most of last year, hog producers were able to generate a profit of roughly $40 per pig.  As of today, the same producer would experience a $30 per pig loss, equating to a $22 million loss for 750,000 heads of livestock.  The only way to survive is to execute the piglets as fast as possible – take to market about 20% of your breeding stock – and place on reduced rations the remaining sows.

The unhappy conclusion from our correspondent: “It is a blood bath out there in the real world.”
_
jog on
duc


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2020)

_*The End of Economy Class as we know it*_

https://www.traveller.com.au/travel...n-era-of-cheap-travel-is-declared-over-h1nkai


----------



## Sdajii (24 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _*The End of Economy Class as we know it*_
> 
> https://www.traveller.com.au/travel...n-era-of-cheap-travel-is-declared-over-h1nkai




I've been concerned about this. For the last 6 years I've rarely stayed in the same country for more than 2-3 consecutive months, often I travel between countries more than once per month. This year I think I'd taken 4 international flights before suddenly being halted for obvious reasons. I'm still not sure if this will mean I can still get cheap flights (say, a $70 flight from Bangkok to Saigon becomes $110 and a $300 flight from Melbourne to KL becomes $450) or if it's going to make them cost prohibitive. If it's only a marginal difference it might actually make travel a lot nicer in many respects (only of any use to me personally if I can financially get back on my feet!)


----------



## matty77 (24 April 2020)

I remember flying my whole family (4 of us) from Singapore to Malaysia for $80AUD in total, and that was with all the added upgrades at the time.. ahh the good old days..


----------



## Humid (24 April 2020)

I just got off a plane at Perth Airport
No people any where
Big white  Tents in the carpark?
Like the end of the world movie


----------



## MrChow (24 April 2020)

I'll be travelling once I've injected my family with spray and wipe.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 April 2020)

Humid said:


> I just got off a plane at Perth Airport
> No people any where
> Big white  Tents in the carpark?
> Like the end of the world movie



That's what they said, when filming "_On the Beach"_ in Melbourne.


----------



## sptrawler (24 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> That's what they said, when filming "_On the Beach"_ in Melbourne.



Wasn't that Robert Mitchum, really interesting movie, for its time.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> I remember flying my whole family (4 of us) from Singapore to Malaysia for $80AUD in total,



Back in the days prior to Virgin entering the market I can recall paying substantially more than that per person for a one-way domestic flight lasting an hour.

I'm sure we'll see the continuance of Economy Class travel as such but the cost to be seated in it could well end up being far higher than it has been in recent times. 

A related issue there is that as business looks to cut costs, one thing that is likely to be on the chopping block is the idea that they fly anyone at higher than necessary cost. All of a sudden "Economy" is what business people fly and "Business" is a misnomer. Not out of the question if there's a general drive to cut costs.


----------



## qldfrog (25 April 2020)

I indeed think my days of transcontinental trans hemisphere commuting with China are over indeed.
Brisbane China returns for around $500...no more.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 April 2020)

MrChow said:


> I'll be travelling once I've injected my family with spray and wipe.




Is there any better demonstration of the Don's intelligence ?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Wasn't that Robert Mitchum, really interesting movie, for its time.



It was reputed to be Ava Gardner, co-star Gregory Peck, who said of the 1959 movie:
'"_On the Beach_" is a story about the end of the world and Melbourne sure is the right place to film it’.
....but a journo claimed he made it up.
https://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/4640692/the-famous-hollywood-quote-that-never-was/


----------



## Joe90 (25 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is there any better demonstration of the Don's intelligence ?



Dorkus Potus aka Orange in Chief. I find it indicative of a generic state of national US stupidity that one of their MSM outlets should consider it necessary to publish an article like this....
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/trump-bleach-coronavirus/610690/


----------



## SirRumpole (25 April 2020)

Joe90 said:


> Dorkus Potus aka Orange in Chief. I find it indicative of a generic state of national US stupidity that one of their MSM outlets should consider it necessary to publish an article like this....
> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/trump-bleach-coronavirus/610690/




He should be the first to have disinfectant injected. It may work its way to what he pleases to call his brain and clean it out a bit.


----------



## jbocker (25 April 2020)

MrChow said:


> I'll be travelling once I've injected my family with spray and wipe.



The next thing to be run off the shelves! I can feel the rumblings now. The hoarders are coming!!.


----------



## barney (25 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is there any better demonstration of the Don's intelligence ?




Lol … I'm sure he meant well Rumpy.   

Dare I admit that when I heard that the C-virus was susceptible to humidity … I thought to myself that perhaps patients could be administered a high temperature "steam vapour" therapy of some sort

Not quite as drastic as pumping disinfectant but a similar principal.  Perhaps I should run for US President  ... or not


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 April 2020)

_*Entrepreneurial Soft Power*_






fuller list at https://candid.org/explore-issues/coronavirus

And Jack Ma doing his bit 







> Ma's critics and even some of his supporters aren't sure what he's getting himself into. Has this bold venture into global philanthropy unveiled him as the friendly face of China's Communist Party? Or is he an independent player who is being used by the Party for propaganda purposes? He appears to be following China's diplomatic rules,


----------



## SirRumpole (26 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> He should be the first to have disinfectant injected. It may work its way to what he pleases to call his brain and clean it out a bit.




Sorry, I was just being sarcastic.


----------



## noirua (27 April 2020)

*Coronavirus detected at two Dutch mink farms*
26 April 2020
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/26/c_139010023.htm


----------



## sptrawler (27 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Sorry, I was just being sarcastic.



Rumpy, we have discussed at length the problem with the world population growth, we don't have a problem as we are trying to increase our population.


----------



## ducati916 (27 April 2020)

Unseen consequences:

_Reports of strokes in the young and middle-aged — not just at Mount Sinai, but also in many other hospitals in communities hit hard by the novel coronavirus — are the latest twist in our evolving understanding of the disease it causes. The numbers of those affected are small but nonetheless remarkable because they challenge how doctors understand the virus. Even as it has infected nearly 2.8 million people worldwide and killed about 195,000 as of Friday, its biological mechanisms continue to elude top scientific minds. Once thought to be a pathogen that primarily attacks the lungs, it has turned out to be a much more formidable foe — impacting nearly every major organ system in the body._

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

jog on
duc


----------



## Knobby22 (27 April 2020)

I have downloaded the Covidsafe App.
Doing my best to get restrictions lifted and protect my family.


----------



## jbocker (27 April 2020)

basilio said:


> *Medical supply company charging $786 for a box of 20 face masks accused of exploiting coronavirus crisis*



In a chemist the other day and they had boxes of masks on their counter $2 a face mask, box of 50  @ $100. My initial thought was gee that's expensive but in retrospect maybe it wasn't. I have no idea of the quality, I suspect not brilliant.


----------



## basilio (27 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> In a chemist the other day and they had boxes of masks on their counter $2 a face mask, box of 50  @ $100. My initial thought was gee that's expensive but in retrospect maybe it wasn't. I have no idea of the quality, I suspect not brilliant.




Settle down.. The masks in the chemist shop were your common garden flat variety. They too were about 10 times the normal price.
The ones quoted for n95 masks . Bit more serious Normally a few dollars each.


----------



## cutz (27 April 2020)

Just a friendly reminder.. report price gouging here..   https://www.ebay.com.au/help/polici...ed-items/reporting-price-gouging-ebay?id=5105


----------



## qldfrog (27 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> In a chemist the other day and they had boxes of masks on their counter $2 a face mask, box of 50  @ $100. My initial thought was gee that's expensive but in retrospect maybe it wasn't. I have no idea of the quality, I suspect not brilliant.



In HK, same price $100 but in hk$ so 5 times cheaper..to give an idea: retail price high quality and certification
 I bought surgical masks in January when Australia was pretending nothing was happening :less than $13 inc postage for 20.
60c a piece
There is no penury of masks 8n China anymore..but Europe is crying for them and shipping them in by chartered planes from China
Not cheap....


----------



## jbocker (27 April 2020)

basilio said:


> Settle down.. The masks in the chemist shop were your common garden flat variety. They too were about 10 times the normal price.
> The ones quoted for n95 masks . Bit more serious Normally a few dollars each.



This was purely an observation. Couldn't tell what variety it was. Quite a bland box about the size of a tissue box. I guess in my minds eye I compared price against a box of tissues (~$5). Their counters were full of them... which sometimes tells the story.
Wasn't unsettled bas.


----------



## qldfrog (28 April 2020)

Some treatment hope on *tocilizumab..*
Seems to be quite effective.sorry msb...


----------



## IFocus (28 April 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I have downloaded the Covidsafe App.
> Doing my best to get restrictions lifted and protect my family.




Me to Knobby its not about me or my privacy but the lives of our front line health workers and the vulnerable.


----------



## sptrawler (28 April 2020)

The shift of some companies from a bricks and mortar model, to an online model is starting to happen, IMO this will become a big problem for shopping mall landlords.
https://www.watoday.com.au/business...big-leap-in-online-sales-20200427-p54ni0.html
From the article:
_Major footwear retailer Accent Group will shift its focus away from its 522 bricks-and-mortar locations to become a digital-first business, as the coronavirus crisis sparks a fundamental change in how Australians shop.

Chief executive Daniel Agostinelli told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald he planned to close anywhere between 50 and 100 stores as part of a major repositioning of the business, though more closures could be on the cards if discussions with landlords turned sour.
"There's been a seismic shift to behaviour, which we feel will be prolonged and instilled in the way people shop," he said.

Accent Group's digital sales have jumped from an average of $250,000 a day in early March to as much as $1.1 million a day during the last two weeks of April. Online penetration has reached as high as 45 per cent of sales, and Mr Agostinelli expected it to stay about 30 per cent by the end of the year.

Accent is not be the only major retailer to flag a major review of its business, with listed fashion retailer PAS Group telling investors today it had appointed advisers to pursue a restructure of the business.

The company's shares entered a trading halt on Thursday, and today it said it would accelerate its strategic review, which will likely result in a closure of a number of retail stores and a significant reduction in costs_.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 April 2020)

https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull04.pdf

*The economic consequences of the virus will depend on a number of factors, including: 
- the direct effects of confinement measures to limit its spread; 
- the required duration of these measures; 
- the extent to which the direct economic effects persist and magnify; and 
- the size of spillovers and spillbacks across regions.*


----------



## jbocker (29 April 2020)

If I can speak a little metaphorically about the waves of coronavirus outbreaks in Australia. I would say we have surfed the first wave with some good fortune but not a pretty ride or a painless ride. The lifesavers have done a great job and with great commendation nearly all on the beach, swam between the flags. But we have suffered some very regrettable tragedy and our lifesavers and revivers have magnificently rescued many. Unfortunately there are still many in deep water some out in the terrible rip and many washed up on the shore injured to an unknown extent. We may have been lucky that the first wave was mild.

The second wave. The savers on top of the lookouts claim they see glimpses of another wave coming. It could be much bigger and could easily form to be a huge dumper. It will be, very likely, far more difficult ride and will certainly have a huge rip form, taking again many more swimmers out into very rough waters. The rescuers will become inundated. The nervous anticipation is, we have set the flags a little broader along the beach as we try to stay in some sunshine and go back into the water. To add to the concern, it may be far more difficult to get swimmers back between the flags. And if they don’t, the beach could get closed. This could become the forerunner swell, to a long winter of ugly seas and waves that wash the our beach away.

Remember to stay within the flags folks!


----------



## Humid (29 April 2020)

And the sand in your budgies?


----------



## jbocker (29 April 2020)

Humid said:


> And the sand in your budgies?



Life is a grind sometimes.


----------



## sptrawler (29 April 2020)

Very interesting read, it sounds as though the Government is well aware of the supply issues, how it deals with the problem will be interesting.
The article is well worth a read, I hope it hasn't already been posted, my apologies if it has.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...tralia-prepare-for-worse-coronavirus/12193228


----------



## SirRumpole (29 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Very interesting read, it sounds as though the Government is well aware of the supply issues, how it deals with the problem will be interesting.
> The article is well worth a read, I hope it hasn't already been posted, my apologies if it has.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...tralia-prepare-for-worse-coronavirus/12193228




That's a pretty disturbing report, yet we continue to export as much natural gas as we can and then buy the stuff from overseas for ourselves. Totally crazy.

Everytime I see people like Fried Burger saying "we are committed to free trade", I feel sick. There is no such thing. These idiots will walk us into another crisis with no ability to fend for ourselves. The medicine situation is particularly troubling.

We need a government prepared to realise the danger we are in and do something about it.


----------



## bluekelah (29 April 2020)

MrChow said:


> Fed cuts to 0.
> 
> Stimulus has added about +15% to markets since Friday.



Just relief rally, bring out the popcorn as earnings season comes around...


----------



## sptrawler (29 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> That's a pretty disturbing report, yet we continue to export as much natural gas as we can and then buy the stuff from overseas for ourselves. Totally crazy.
> 
> Everytime I see people like Fried Burger saying "we are committed to free trade", I feel sick. There is no such thing. These idiots will walk us into another crisis with no ability to fend for ourselves. The medicine situation is particularly troubling.
> 
> We need a government prepared to realise the danger we are in and do something about it.



Hastie seems to be agitating about it, hopefully something is done, to think another Country is going to give a ratz ar$e about us in a crisis is madness.
At least this is a wakeup call and should ring alarm bells, IMO the next pandemic will be worse than this one and it is only a matter of time IMO.
They are getting more devastating, this one has the virulence, but relatively low mortality rate, but each one seems to be stronger than the last.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 April 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I have downloaded the Covidsafe App.
> Doing my best to get restrictions lifted and protect my family.



Likewise.

The one concern I do have however is the apparent assumption by some, that being the media and according to reports some retailers, that everyone owns a smartphone and carries it with them constantly.

In practice most but not all people own one and a portion of those carry it with them constantly. I note that government is not demanding that everyone does so but there does seem to be an element that finds the idea that someone ordinarily finds no need for such a device incomprehensible. 

Personally yes I have one but under normal circumstances no I certainly don't carry the thing every single time I step out the front door, they're too fragile and expensive for that.

I'm not opposed to the app in any way, just to the assumption that every single person walking down the street is carrying a smartphone at all times as though doing so were some mandatory requirement under normal circumstances.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> That's a pretty disturbing report, yet we continue to export as much natural gas as we can and then buy the stuff from overseas for ourselves. Totally crazy.



Two big problems there.

First is that gas is a finite resource. Once it's gone then it's gone and before anyone says that's Chicken Little type thinking, I'll point them to have a look at the actual situation in Victoria and SA where there really ain't much left and production's falling as a result.

Second is that reliance on foreign suppliers and foreign owned ships is just unnecessary vulnerability. In a war you can blow up however many cities, towns, factories, railways and so on to cripple a country but all that's completely unnecessary if you can instead just shut the energy supply off. Do that and you don't need to worry about the rest.


----------



## wayneL (30 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Likewise.
> 
> The one concern I do have however is the apparent assumption by some, that being the media and according to reports some retailers, that everyone owns a smartphone and carries it with them constantly.
> 
> ...



Mine stays in the Ute, or on the bench at home. I never carry as such.


----------



## SirRumpole (30 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Likewise.
> 
> The one concern I do have however is the apparent assumption by some, that being the media and according to reports some retailers, that everyone owns a smartphone and carries it with them constantly.
> 
> ...




True. My mobile is so old that it can't download apps.

It makes and receives voice calls  and SMS and that's basically all I need.

I don't need twatter or facepalm or snotify or any other rubbish, and I certainly don't need to be running into other people on the street while checking my emails.

But then, I'm just a grouchy old man.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 May 2020)

one transformative effect of this dang virus


> Through this crisis, the world's *cloud and network infrastructure *has delivered massive scaling to support vital workloads for businesses and consumers. Cloud delivered applications seen as convenience a quarter ago, such as online shopping and video collaborations have now become indispensable”



_Robert Swan, CEO, Intel Corporation_



> We’ve seen two year’s worth of *digital transformation* in two months. From remote teamwork and learning, to sales and customer service, to critical cloud infrastructure and security”



_Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corp_


> “There is both an immediate surge in demand and *systemic structural changes* across all of our solution areas that will define the way we live and work going forward”



_Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corp_


----------



## sptrawler (1 May 2020)

I just noticed on T.V an advert suggesting you should not put off seeing your GP, also don't put off having scans as the early detection of issues is important, very important points.
I wonder if the virus has had a negative impact on doctors, imaging services etc, also on the same note, I haven't seen a reduction in premiums from health funds, but one would expect the demand on their financial assistance has dropped.
The flow on effect may have a positive effect on some bottom lines and a negative effect on others.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

Flights still coming to Australia at start of May
https://www-australianfrequentflyer...rnational-airlines-flying-australia-may-2020/


----------



## basilio (2 May 2020)

*
Trump’s threats to reignite the US-China trade war in reaction to the pandemic trigger a sell-off in global financial markets*, 

Global stock markets turned south when Trump opened the option of a trade war with China again.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...trump-us-china-trade-war-coronavirus-covid-19


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## SirRumpole (2 May 2020)

The effect of the "just in time" economy on corona virus response.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/coronavirus-pandemic-exposes-just-in-time-economy/12206776


----------



## Country Lad (2 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The effect of the "just in time" economy on corona virus response.




I know the owners of a couple of large private businesses for whom I have done the odd bit of consulting have increased their inventories few years ago.  When we looked at the cost (and risk) of incidents of interruptions to the supply chains, they elected for an increase in inventory of their inputs.
The cost of keeping the additional inventory at the low interest rates was far less than the cost of their business interruptions.

I have no doubt many businesses who have been severely interrupted are doing this exercise and reassessing their risk management strategy.  Could lead to a whole new look at, if not the end of, the "just in time" practice, at least for the period of low interest rates.


----------



## MrChow (3 May 2020)

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html

New York City has 12.3% of their 8.9m population infected.

That equals 1.1m people and 25k have died, giving them a mortality rate of 0.2%.

If that is an accurate figure it's the equivilent risk of getting the flu twice.

I think that is optimistic news for markets as populations will be unlikely to accept mass economic shutdowns again.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 May 2020)

Country Lad said:


> I know the owners of a couple of large private businesses for whom I have done the odd bit of consulting have increased their inventories few years ago. When we looked at the cost (and risk) of incidents of interruptions to the supply chains, they elected for an increase in inventory of their inputs.
> The cost of keeping the additional inventory at the low interest rates was far less than the cost of their business interruptions.



I think "just in time" is one of those things which has become an article of faith. It's drummed into those doing various business qualifications and they accept it as is, without ever doing the maths on it.

As I pointed out to someone some time ago, the having minimal stock in made zero sense given that they were keeping the cash at 0.0% interest and not putting it to productive use. In doing that they'd be losing due to inflation plus the additional staff time associated with more frequent ordering plus they were paying very substantially higher prices for the small quantities purchased versus one big order which was my main point. Note that we're talking about bulk items here - they don't deteriorate in storage, there's zero technological change and they own the warehouse anyway so the cost of something sitting in it is nil. Couldn't tell them though, their mind was made up and wasn't going to be changed. 

I expect the virus will show up a lot of things like that. Not just inventory issues but things where people just accept what they believe to be true and never actually question to see whether it really is true. Quite a few untruths will have been exposed almost certainly.


----------



## jbocker (3 May 2020)

I can understand some of what drove 'just in time', to save storage costs, but another is shelf life, where things are out of date so bloody fast. Buy something today and its been superseded by the time you have driven home.
On storage, I wonder if old warehouses might start opening up. Those that haven't been used by Toilet Roll Hoarders.


----------



## againsthegrain (3 May 2020)

jobkeeper is not really living up its target 



> *Expecting a $1500 JobKeeper payment? Not after tax  *





https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...BPtpAlyQDSCXahYW3xQPYZJsgz7oeYlluCF-tkKNQsh14


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> I can understand some of what drove 'just in time', to save storage costs, but another is shelf life, where things are out of date so bloody fast. Buy something today and its been superseded by the time you have driven home.




I see it as one of those things that has its place, it's a good idea in many circumstances, but which has been adopted universally which includes situations where it's not at all beneficial.

That seems to be common with a lot of things. Good ideas in many situations but they end up being applied to situations where they really don't make sense.


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> jobkeeper is not really living up its target
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...BPtpAlyQDSCXahYW3xQPYZJsgz7oeYlluCF-tkKNQsh14



The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.


----------



## againsthegrain (3 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
> The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
> The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.




Totally agree



> We're grateful for anything, but $450 per week doesn't cover the mortgage and *car loans*, so there's nothing left for food or any utility costs," he said.


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> Totally agree



I know I have been in situation in the early 1980's, where I had to leave a job due to reasons outside of my control, arrived in Perth with the kids, second degree burns a dog and not much else, that wasn't already in hospital.
Went to centerlink and the result was when you have spent everything you have, then come and see us. I was reluctant to go there in the first place and after that I've never been in the place.
The most humiliating and disappointing day of my life.


----------



## Humid (3 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
> The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
> The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.



 Yeah I lived in a shoebox on the side of the road....busy road too


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Yeah I lived in a shoebox on the side of the road....busy road too



No you live in a shoebox on the side of a minesite.
But at $250k a year I would do it. lol
Actually I did it for $36k a year, 5 weeks on one week off.
The thing is I was never smug enough, to try and take the piZZ out of my old man, because he was retired and did it harder than me.
Times change, so does people perceptions.
Just be careful of who you $hit on climbing the ladder, as you will probably pass them on the way down, grasshopper.


----------



## Humid (3 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> No you live in a shoebox on the side of a minesite.
> But at $250k a year I would do it. lol
> Actually I did it for $36k a year, 5 weeks on one week off.
> The thing is I was never smug enough, to try and take the piZZ out of my old man, because he was retired and did it harder than me.
> ...



 Yeah no one ever did it harder than you pops


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Yeah no one ever did it harder than you pops



Obviously not you, but don't hold your breath, things may even bring high flying bogans like you down to earth IMO.
Interesting times, we can continue as China's #*tch or maybe take a hit, for a more sustainable first world future.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-03/coronavirus-australia-china-difficult-times/12206730
From the article:
_The attempt by these two billionaires and indeed other business leaders to force a foreign policy course correction from the Morrison Government may not be entirely surprising, but it is nonetheless a sign of the difficulty that lies ahead for the Prime Minister.

Stokes and Forrest are hardly alone among business leaders wanting to make peace with Beijing.

Self-interest may be at play here, but the uncomfortable truth for many Coalition backbenchers fuming at these business leaders is that Australia will need China in its economic recovery.

Scott Morrison points out it's a mutually beneficial relationship. China needs high quality iron ore and coal as much as Australia needs the revenue.

The problem on the Australian side is the over-reliance on one big trading partner. And for all the talk of Australia becoming more self-sufficient and diversifying its trade relationships, it's much easier said than done_.


----------



## Humid (3 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously not you, but don't hold your breath, things may even bring high flying bogans like you down to earth IMO.
> Interesting times, we can continue as China's #*tch or maybe take a hit, for a more sustainable first world future.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-03/coronavirus-australia-china-difficult-times/12206730
> ...




Wrong horse mate I work for BHP
So you vote for a mob to keep your franking credits and get shirty when they hand out a bit of welfare they you don’t get


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Wrong horse mate I work for BHP
> So you vote for a mob to keep your franking credits and get shirty when they hand out a bit of welfare they you don’t get



What does, they you don't get, mean?
As for handouts, I don't have a problem with that, you were the one that was getting all wet, thinking I was going to lose mine.
You are the one with the issue, not me.
As with silly Billy, you seem to have a unlikeable trait, of being smug about someone else's misfortune.
It didn't help his career, I hope it serves you better.


----------



## Humid (3 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The thing is, no matter how much you hand out some people will complain, this is the first major downturn-recession that workers have received anything.
> The age of entitlement is really kicking in, throw money at people and they come up with a reason why it should be more, rather than just being thankful they are actually getting something.
> The 1980's and 1990's recession, if you lost your job it was tough $hit, grow a pair and get on with it.




You wrote this shlt


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Humid said:


> You wrote this shlt



Yes, in response to a quote by another member, that included.

"We're grateful for anything, but $450 per week doesn't cover the mortgage and car loans, so there's nothing left for food or any utility costs,"

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...oronavirus-outbreak.35169/reply?quote=1070830.

As I said, in the past their wasn't any Government handouts like is being done currently, so in reality most should be grateful.

If that is shlt, then it is you that has a problem.
Don't forget, you were getting hot and sweaty when you said, "silly Billy is going to bend me over a log"?

lucky you aren't an archbishop, or a newspaper would have been in touch with you.
By the way, i've lost most of my franking credits, because i've lost most of my dividends, so that should really get you wet.
So I am running down my savings and should be on a pension by the time I'm eligible, so all will be good.


----------



## Humid (3 May 2020)

No you SELF managed to do that by yourself


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Humid said:


> No you SELF managed to do that by yourself



Absolutely, I don't have an issue with that, I know a few friends who are in industry funds and ME Bank, that are passing razor blades.
I'm just safe guarding my franking credits, from future incursions, it is a lot of fun enjoying my money.
I was always careful, took the cheap option, now want it buy it, good fun.


----------



## Humid (3 May 2020)

I’ve never heard anything good about that bank only dramas from the few I know who use it
Maybe enjoy your money and stop worrying about everyone else’s


----------



## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Maybe enjoy your money and stop worrying about everyone else’s



That's what I've been telling you for the last 12 months.


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

This is a real horror story highlighting the chancers who are  just making up  xhite to turn a buck during this crisis. Well worth a read. 
Note the political connection to a current Federal Minister.

* Australian firm under TGA investigation says it is making coronavirus tests, despite having no approval or expertise *
*Exclusive*: Promedical Equipment, led by convicted rapist Neran de Silva, compares its actions to other businesses trying to assist in pandemic response

A tiny Brisbane company linked to coronavirus test scandals in Australia, Puerto Rico and the mainland United States says it is now attempting to fill international orders by manufacturing its own antibody tests, despite having no previous diagnostic experience and the tests being unsanctioned and unproven.

Promedical Equipment Pty Ltd – a company run by convicted rapist Neran de Silva – made a series of promises to deliver huge quantities of Covid-19 tests to governments across the world, initially on the basis that it was able to re-sell equipment from a reputable Chinese manufacturer.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tests-despite-having-no-approval-or-expertise


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

It's worth visiting the Promedical website and asking yourself if this looks like a scam.

Honestly ? I don't think one could tell.  It looks very professional and legit. But on the net no one knows if your a dog  ...
https://www.promedical.com.au/


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

COVID 19 has exposed the dangers of the just-in-time economy. What happens to our economic engines when long supply lines simultaneously fail ?

*Coronavirus pandemic exposes fatal flaws of the 'just-in-time' economy*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/coronavirus-pandemic-exposes-just-in-time-economy/12206776


----------



## qldfrog (4 May 2020)

basilio said:


> *led by convicted rapist Neran de Silva*, compares its actions to other businesses trying to assist in pandemic response
> 
> A tiny Brisbane company linked to coronavirus test scandals in Australia, Puerto Rico and the mainland United States says it is now attempting to fill international orders by manufacturing its own antibody tests, despite having no previous diagnostic experience and the tests being unsanctioned and unproven.
> 
> Promedical Equipment Pty Ltd – a company *run by convicted rapist Neran de Silva* –



Twice in 3 paragraphs, In which world is it relevant? Being convicted mean he has been judged and sentenced...
Are you on the lynching mob Basilio? this attitude used to be caricature of the right wing: redemption anyone?
If he was managing a dancing school maybe, but  here I would be more worried if he was convicted for fraud or scam...
I do not know this company/guy but we can see first hand the results of relying first hand on big certified organisation to respond to emergency, you know like WHO, UN or in europe the EU..plenty of legal and certified bodies full certifications and standards: 
buying tests chemical from China to produce tests is not rocket science, and small companies are more agile.They (can) deliver


----------



## basilio (5 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Twice in 3 paragraphs, In which world is it relevant? Being convicted mean he has been judged and sentenced...
> Are you on the lynching mob Basilio? this attitude used to be caricature of the right wing: redemption anyone?
> If he was managing a dancing school maybe, but  here I would be more worried if he was convicted for fraud or scam...
> I do not know this company/guy but we can see first hand the results of relying first hand on big certified organisation to respond to emergency, you know like WHO, UN or in europe the EU..plenty of legal and certified bodies full certifications and standards:
> buying tests chemical from China to produce tests is not rocket science, and small companies are more agile.They (can) deliver





Did you actually read the full story Qfrog ?  I didn't think so...

If you had you would have realised this company is up to its ears to investigations because of dodgy, *NO - fraudulent dealings ,  *with the US and Puerto Rico not to mention our authorities. 
He is just full of xshite.

And trying to trash the UN and WHO and the EU into the process ?  Not cool. 

I have no problem with legitimate small companies delivering. I can tick off heaps of BIG companies that gouge and lie and misrepresent.  But this is not such a creature.


----------



## basilio (5 May 2020)

I think the economic clouds will darken significantly when China decides on a response to Trumps slanderous accusations.

Not sure what will happen but I can see some  economic confrontation between China/US that will further undermine a fragile US economy.  That will certainly impact on Australia as well.

___________________

Lebanon has defaulted on its  debt payments.  Won't be last country to do this either as economies unravel.

*Lebanon to default on debt payments for first time as crisis deepens*


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2020)

Are you going to play a rederob on me now, my point is that mention of rapist is not relevant.
You want to see money grabbing with the virus,,? yesterday news QUT being creative and adapting scuba breath apparatus into ventilator.
France has been using Decathlon scuba gear for months now
You will not have a quick medical answer to that virus relying on bloated organisations


----------



## jbocker (6 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Not sure what will happen but I can see some economic confrontation between China/US that will further undermine a fragile US economy. That will certainly impact on Australia as well.



I don't see value in US reigniting a fight (with China) while it is trying to push its people out to work in a very unsafe environment. It stinks to me as a pure deflection of attention away from the fight they are losing with the virus. Australia has a LOT to lose, needs to be careful jumping in that ring. I would think we would be far better off spending the time looking for alternatives to China, lessen our exposure to that market. It is going to mean tightening our belts and really get working. Thankfully it looks like we will have a healthy environment to do that in. Keep our social distancing we don't time to catch even a minor sniffle (and it would be nice not to suffer the forgotten old flu too).


----------



## qldfrog (10 May 2020)

It seems light is at last shining on our PC and facts ignorant brains(see the people still musing with that wet market idea blaming poor pangolins) :https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/na...-s-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-20200507-p54qyg.html
So once people realised COVID-19 escaped(hopefully by accident) from the Wuhan lab, we have 2 probable outcomes: demands for reparations from the millions of lives destroyed either to illness or for most economically by the responses.
Good luck with getting a cent from the Chinese government, or ever an admission of fault ; they are even pushing the blame now on the US and Europe wiping up the propaganda in the middle kingdom.
Eve if most of the western governments, Australia included want to ease the heat, the truth will be out and people will demand responses:
more trade war, tariff, boycott for the economic part+ sabre-rattling and war songs;
=>nickel has been called the war mineral, big US defence companies etc will benefit, be careful with our Chinese focused economy: iron/coal
I sadly expect racism and knee jerk reactions against the Asian community be they born here or not. Blame should be on the CCP


----------



## qldfrog (10 May 2020)

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wo...ible-shutdown-in-october-20200510-p54rid.html
The truth drip fed to the masses, slowly slowly not to anger our master


----------



## qldfrog (10 May 2020)

Back to the economy here: unexpected:https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/po...le-in-treasury-forecasts-20200509-p54rdl.html


----------



## Knobby22 (14 May 2020)

Herd immunity is not the way to go. The Swedish experiment is failing and the USA one is going to be nasty. There is no way that their economy is going back to normal for years on this route and they will be looking jealously at Australia and NZ before too long. We need a treatment before this route is considered.

*Seriously carefully read the following from the John Hopkins University of Medicine, one of the USA's premier medical research universities.*

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. _For example, Rush Limbaugh recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” _As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4% of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21% of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.

_Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,” akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. _Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk.

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – _it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity._ _If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time._


----------



## spooly74 (14 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Herd immunity is not the way to go. The Swedish experiment is failing and the USA one is going to be nasty. There is no way that their economy is going back to normal for years on this route and they will be looking jealously at Australia and NZ before too long. We need a treatment before this route is considered.



It's too early to called Swedish model a failure.
They'll inevitably be better off re: second wave and at the beginning of the month along with the Dutch (who initially, IIRC started with a herd approach) are the only countries to have their death predictions downgraded by 40% in comparison with comparable European countries.
The major disaster for Swedes has been with deaths in nursing homes but that a common element across the board...eg Spain with nearly 70% of deaths in nursing homes.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates


----------



## Knobby22 (14 May 2020)

What about the John Hopkins University part? That is really the basis of the post.


----------



## spooly74 (14 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> What about the John Hopkins University part? That is really the basis of the post.



I didn't quote that in the response but it's using a business as usual approach to the numbers while I believe that keeping the vulnerable properly isolated (where we have failed miserably) allows the young to gain a larger % of herd immunity to the population.
If 70% of the population is required for herd immunity and 70% of the population are extremely low risk then open it up to the less vulnerable. 
The Global average age for death is around 80 years old & with proper quarantine this can be reduced dramatically until quality treatments or a vaccine becomes available.


----------



## Knobby22 (14 May 2020)

spooly74 said:


> I didn't quote that in the response but it's using a business as usual approach to the numbers while I believe that keeping the vulnerable properly isolated (where we have failed miserably) allows the young to gain a larger % of herd immunity to the population.
> If 70% of the population is required for herd immunity and 70% of the population are extremely low risk then open it up to the less vulnerable.
> The Global average age for death is around 80 years old & with proper quarantine this can be reduced dramatically until quality treatments or a vaccine becomes available.




Extremely low risk? Not if you are in the age range of 45-74 and especially with existing medical pre conditions. Also the new found link to children where it attacks their hearts is worrying.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
https://theweek.com/speedreads/913720/covid19-now-believed-attack-kids-kidneys-hearts-nerves-not-just-lungs

But the more important point (in economic terms) is the length of time to get the herd immunity -18 months away at best, the New York example is particularly relevant, all that death yet no-where near herd immunity. People aren't going to willingly catch this.  The implications are enormous.

You can open up the economy as much as you want but if you have not got it in control then people will not risk their life. I think Australia is on a much better route.

Of course - once a treatment is found - then everything changes.


----------



## qldfrog (14 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Herd immunity is not the way to go. The Swedish experiment is failing and the USA one is going to be nasty. There is no way that their economy is going back to normal for years on this route and they will be looking jealously at Australia and NZ before too long. We need a treatment before this route is considered.
> 
> *Seriously carefully read the following from the John Hopkins University of Medicine, one of the USA's premier medical research universities.*
> 
> ...



Just a note @Knobby22 to say I appreciate good  unbiased and informative posts like that.


----------



## basilio (17 May 2020)

Where is COVID 19 taking us ?  
This type of pandemic as well as other scenarios has been well researched. 

*Some analysts warned of the economic impacts of a pandemic like COVID-19. Here's what they think might happen next*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...s-recession-what-comes-post-covid-19/12256246


----------



## basilio (17 May 2020)

Analysing the cost vs benefit of COVID 19 shutdown.

*The costs of the shutdown are overestimated – they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit *
As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.

The sceptics arguing for more rapid relaxation of containment measures point to the economic costs of lockdowns and appeal to the cold calculus of cost-benefit analysis to conclude that the lives saved by lockdowns don’t justify the economic costs incurred to do so. 

Their numbers don’t stack up.
https://theconversation.com/the-cos...e-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit-138303


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Analysing the cost vs benefit of COVID 19 shutdown.
> 
> *The costs of the shutdown are overestimated – they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit *
> As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
> ...



Well ole Trump is as we speak carrying out the experiment for us. 

gg


----------



## basilio (18 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well ole Trump is as we speak carrying out the experiment for us.
> 
> gg




I posted the story in good faith and, in theory..., according to the metrics used by the authors,  the thousands of people who die represent a trillion dollar loss to the economy

But please note the metrics value each US life at $10m and Australian lives at around $4.9m.

*WOW!! Bet you didn't know we were all so "valuable"..*

As far as the US and Trump goes the assisted euthanasia experiment he is allowing  is  happening largely in
1) Nursing homes
2) Poorer crowed  black and latino communities
3) Crowded prison systems.
4) Big industrial meat packing/chicken processing industries

Yes there will be many others who die but if your sufficiently ruthless you can pass these off as collateral damage and call them Free Enterprise warriors into the bargain.

The only universe in which US citizens who dies from COVID19 will be "valued "at $10m each will be in the gigantic lawsuit pinned on the Chinese government for reparation damages. Otherwise we will not see these deaths. They will be underreported  by fudging criteria on death certificates,  overlooked  when the happen and called fake news if ever called out.


----------



## qldfrog (18 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well ole Trump is as we speak carrying out the experiment for us.
> 
> gg



indeed will be interesting to see the final results between democrat states with mandatory isolation and the republican states with a more individualistic view.
Both in term of morbility and economic impacts
Funny how the hoarders/ doom preps were seen as right wings nutters to laugh at 6 months ago whereas now the leftists are the ones endorsing the approach


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 May 2020)

basilio said:


> I posted the story in good faith and, in theory..., according to the metrics used by the authors,  the thousands of people who die represent a trillion dollar loss to the economy
> 
> But please note the metrics value each US life at $10m and Australian lives at around $4.9m.
> 
> ...




Nobody really knows how the USA will go imo.

You may be discounting the bankruptcies and disruption to business and goods flow. 

Then again if any country is to pick up again quickly it will be the USA with their work ethic.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 May 2020)

An interesting development with so many working from home



> Seeing as so many people are working from Home now, what happens if you trip and fall in your new workspace?
> Are you covered by WorkCover?
> Will WorkCover premiums go up down or stay the same?
> With all these new workplaces, will the workplace health and safety inspectors be allowed to check it out?
> And if they are, who pays for any alterations to a "dangerous environment" identified in the new workplace?



- asked Mick

Of course there have been court cases already _Hargreaves and Telstra Corporation Limited [2011] AATA 417.
*Does workers compensation cover employees working from home?*



			If you injure yourself while working from home, you may be entitled to compensation through a no-fault insurance scheme like WorkCover - the outcome of your claim will depend on whether it can be shown that your injuries occurred in the course of your employment. 

For example, in one case, the Administrative Appeals Tribunal ruled that Telstra had to pay the medical and legal costs of an employee who was injured while working from home. The employee, named Dale Hargreaves, was working from home and left her computer to go downstairs to retrieve some cough medicine. On her way she slipped and fell down the stairs, injuring her shoulder. 

While Telstra denied liability due to Ms. Hargreaves' remote working location, the Tribunal ruled the fall occurred during her employment and deemed it like any employee taking a break at work.
		
Click to expand...



*Working from home: employer obligations*_


> _Employers have a duty of care when it comes to their workers undertaking their tasks from home. The Workplace Health and Safety Act 1995 says that employees working from home are still covered when injury occurs.
> 
> Employers must take reasonable steps to ensure their employee’s safety, including making sure an employee’s home area meets workplace health and safety requirements, and completing a risk assessment._



_



			An employer should also provide a working from home policy which:
		
Click to expand...


_


> _gives clear instructions on how to perform your duties safely;_
> _states when or how the employer will inspect the home environment; and_
> _provides information on when and how employees should report potential health and safety issues._
> _ Employees also have a responsibility to look after their own safety. They should designate a work area that family and other members of the public aren’t allowed to enter during their hours of employment.
> _



https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.a..._must_i_do_when_workers_are_working_from_home


----------



## moXJO (19 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Analysing the cost vs benefit of COVID 19 shutdown.
> 
> *The costs of the shutdown are overestimated – they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit *
> As Australia begins to relax its COVID-19 restrictions there is understandable debate about how quickly that should proceed, and whether lockdowns even made sense in Australia in the first place.
> ...



Wasn't sure about the use of these numbers.

http://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/05/18...d-holden-bruce-preston-and-neil-bailey-ooops/



> They make three big mistakes. One is a rookie mistake, two are less serious but still bad mistakes.
> 
> The rookie mistake is that they use the statistical value of life for someone who dies of corona. Yet, the statistical value of life holds for a whole life, ie 80 years of life. By contrast, the corona victims would have expected to live only 3-5 years more. So one should only count 5% of the 5 million as the appropriate value of those years, ie 4 years out of the 80 in a full life. That, after all, is how the statistical value of life estimates are used in government allocation decisions. Holden and Preston seem just not to know this, thus confusing their molehill for a mountain. Using the statistical value of life properly would get them a “saving” of only 45 billion Australian dollars of the lock downs, which is 4 times less than they themselves claim is the economic loss.
> 
> ...




Even with the above it feels like they ignored the cost of the virus running through society freely.


----------



## qldfrog (19 May 2020)

My view is that we have learnt a lot in the last 3 months.decision were made which were not justified, yet blame is not welcome, 8 would preefer a :
We made a prudent decision, we might have gone too far in retrospective, and i believe people would understand that.
I would.
No need to lie and fudge figures, only idiots or some radical members here do not accept change

If the temperature factor is real, we were mostly safe and could have just isolate vulnerable populations, on the other end, we may just start facing issues down south.
Let's look again in august.i think Morrison overall did a proper job and acted as he should have.now let's move on and learn from it.


----------



## sptrawler (21 May 2020)

We are starting to see the green shoots of a post virus Australia IMO, the Governments renewables roadmap and an increase in domestic manufacturing is on the cards. Hooray
The debate will probably be about the time and cost of getting the energy mix right between gas and renewables, gas is easier because it only requires a pipe, renewables are better but would take a lot longer to fruition.
Just my opinion.

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...0-p54uwd.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true


----------



## Humid (21 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> We are starting to see the green shoots of a post virus Australia IMO, the Governments renewables roadmap and an increase in domestic manufacturing is on the cards. Hooray
> The debate will probably be about the time and cost of getting the energy mix right between gas and renewables, gas is easier because it only requires a pipe, renewables are better but would take a lot longer to fruition.
> Just my opinion.
> 
> https://www.watoday.com.au/national...0-p54uwd.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true




After a double-whammy of fossil fuel leaders getting paid by the government to recommend fossil projects, the ABC reports that Angus Taylor has released the government’s 30 year Technology Investment Roadmap.

While the discussion paper considers the potential of more than 140 technologies, including hydrogen, renewables, biofuels and (surprise surprise) gas and carbon capture, The Age’s Nick O’Malley notes that it also “includes no goals, no discussion, no prediction of how much less carbon the nation will emit over the coming years should Taylor’s roadmap be followed.”

FURTHER: The Guardian reports that a leaked draft report by a the COVID-19 Commission’s manufacturing taskforce — headed by Dow Chemical executive Andrew Liveris — recommends the Morrison government use taxpayer funds to “create the market” for gas and build fossil fuel infrastructure that would operate for decades. Three for three, baby!


----------



## sptrawler (21 May 2020)

Humid said:


> After a double-whammy of fossil fuel leaders getting paid by the government to recommend fossil projects, the ABC reports that Angus Taylor has released the government’s 30 year Technology Investment Roadmap.
> 
> While the discussion paper considers the potential of more than 140 technologies, including hydrogen, renewables, biofuels and (surprise surprise) gas and carbon capture, The Age’s Nick O’Malley notes that it also “includes no goals, no discussion, no prediction of how much less carbon the nation will emit over the coming years should Taylor’s roadmap be followed.”
> 
> FURTHER: The Guardian reports that a leaked draft report by a the COVID-19 Commission’s manufacturing taskforce — headed by Dow Chemical executive Andrew Liveris — recommends the Morrison government use taxpayer funds to “create the market” for gas and build fossil fuel infrastructure that would operate for decades. Three for three, baby!



Yes it sounds good, hopefully the momentum is maintained, the problem with these big bold moves they tend to fizzle out when bean counters get involved.
Hopefully this time it is different.


----------



## basilio (21 May 2020)

Be interesting to see how the owners and investors of the big shopping centres fare as foot traffic and sales  crash. 
*Shopping centre landlords set to be among the biggest coronavirus losers*

When the dust eventually settles on the COVID-19 pandemic, there will be winners and there will be losers. Retail landlords are shaping up to be among the biggest losers.

*Key points:*

Many retailers say they have struggled to negotiate rent reductions with their shopping centre landlords
Retail giant Premier Investments stopped paying rent while its stores were closed and is now seeking to negotiate much lower rents going forward
Analysts say the stream of new retailers that has allowed landlords to squeeze small shops out of existence is drying up
"Everybody else has felt that this is a ground-breaking time where we have to behave differently, do things differently, change your business model," retail strategist Nancy Georges told the ABC.

"Landlords are not doing that."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...rds-among-biggest-coronavirus-losers/12271266


----------



## basilio (24 May 2020)

The collapse in bank dividends and almost certainly property market dividends will be playing havoc with investors and retirees.

It will also also  result in a substantial revaluation of assets which don't return income.
 
* Retirees face financial ruin as coronavirus slashes share dividends *
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...l-ruin-as-coronavirus-slashes-share-dividends


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2020)

What a beat up this is 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...ine/12278432&usg=AOvVaw2SwoWiUy_gwxdzhCQmR1ZK

Firstly the budgeted amount was announced well BEFORE businesses were repeating for Job Keeper so the REASON is just rubbish 

The estimates were based on worst case scenarios for budgeting purposes.
Australia handled and is handling COVID as good as anyone on the planet.

So best case is now the worst case.
Spin is for a bungle for political gain —— same old same old.

Personally all I see is a reward for a job well done from *EVERYONE*.


----------



## basilio (25 May 2020)

The biggest individual cause of COVID 19 in Australia has been the hundreds of passengers infected from the cruise ships that  effectively provided a petri dish of infection.
Excellent indepth story on the background to these infections. 
As usual it will be an ABC  4 Corners expose
*It also highlights the determination of Carnival cruise to keep sailing regardless of risk.
*
*Anatomy of an outbreak: How the Ruby Princess nightmare unfolded *
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-25/four-corners-ruby-princess-coronavirus-investigation/12266884


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

basilio said:


> The collapse in bank dividends and almost certainly property market dividends will be playing havoc with investors and retirees.
> 
> It will also also  result in a substantial revaluation of assets which don't return income.
> 
> ...



Well retirees are responsible for the youth's financial woes, according to the media, so it wont get much airplay.


----------



## Knobby22 (25 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well retirees are responsible for the youth's financial woes, according to the media, so it wont get much airplay.




I agree, we will only hear about the retirees whinging day in day out throughout all the media.

It's the incompetence of people running their own SMFs and investing too much in banks.
If they had left it in a low fee well run professional fund such as Australian Super and used Annuities they would not be in trouble.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 May 2020)

agree

The headline, we know the issue is
_*"Bungle in coronavirus stimulus JobKeeper could be good in more than one way for the budget's bottom line"*_
- it (the outcome) is unambiguously good news . 

Could say more; the point scoring short attention span news cycle crowd or professional oppositionists may say what they like, but less debt and more people back to work must be good

(and besides, the political decision making was based on the modelling provided by scientists. Oh shock horror, wou'd have thought they could get it wrong)


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I agree, we will only hear about the retirees whinging day in day out throughout all the media.
> 
> It's the incompetence of people running their own SMFs and investing too much in banks.
> If they had left it in a low fee well run professional fund such as Australian Super and used Annuities they would not be in trouble.



Well that highlights what I was saying, the most despised sector of society.


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well that highlights what I was saying, the most despised sector of society.




Don’t flatter yourself no one cares
In my years of working with thousands of different people from all walks of life I can honestly say people in your situation have never been mentioned 
Maybe it’s the way you project yourself


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Don’t flatter yourself no one cares
> In my years of working with thousands of different people from all walks of life I can honestly say people in your situation have never been mentioned
> Maybe it’s the way you project yourself



Bill cared enough to single us out, he is still limping around, with the hole in his foot.
Obviously the thousands of people you have worked with can't read, because it took up a huge amount of media space.
By the way, I've never had a problem protecting myself.


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

You keep bringing Bill up so here you go 
Bill get elected your fund isn’t viable anymore you join Australian super
Now sitting prettier

All the media attention you point out is caused from people with too much time on their hands
Get a job y’a bum


----------



## basilio (25 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I agree, we will only hear about the retirees whinging day in day out throughout all the media.
> 
> It's the incompetence of people running their own SMFs and investing too much in banks.
> If they had left it in a low fee well run professional fund such as Australian Super and used Annuities they would not be in trouble.




Don't know about that...
On almost any analysis a cheaply run SMF fund that was in Banks and say Argo for dividends and a good spread  across the ASX   (and would have been eligible for franking credits as well !)  would have been  a sound  investment choice.

I can't see how any other super funds would have provided a  better outcome. Certainly the retail funds would be a worse outcome. Industry funds probably only a few percent better.

I think the big challenge for any investor at the moment, funds or individual , is identifying a spread of investments that will  safely return sufficient income to enable a retiree to live comfortably.


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Don't know about that...
> On almost any analysis a cheaply run SMF fund that was in Banks and say Argo for dividends and a good spread  across the ASX   (and would have been eligible for franking credits as well !)  would have been  a sound  investment choice.
> 
> I can't see how any other super funds would have provided a  better outcome. Certainly the retail funds would be a worse outcome. Industry funds probably only a few percent better.
> ...



What dividends?


----------



## basilio (25 May 2020)

Humid said:


> What dividends?



?? Clearly the  "safe" ones that seemed like they were going "forever" before COVID19.
Dividend yields of 5-6% plus bonus franking credits.
Gravy train stuff - it seemed.


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

Oh yes hindsight is the most powerful tool in my shed


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 May 2020)

> *Debt in a time of crisis*
> May 21, 2020
> 
> _The ability of countries to support their economies today turns on fiscal practices that were set well before this crisis._



"_The truth is we still have an incomplete understanding of the long-term consequences of large national debts. Within the academic uncertainty, there exists enough intellectual cover for those on both the left and the right to advocate their standing ideological positions, with sufficient ammunition available to press their case. What is unfortunate about this is that it smothers sensible debate. In politics, the media and around the dinner-party table, most people’s views on the virtues of government debt were firmly established before the pandemic struck. In many countries, that is going to make a reasoned debate about the challenges to come almost impossible_."

https://www.globalvaluefund.com.au/press-research/the-age-of-artificial-returns-2/


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

basilio said:


> I think the big challenge for any investor at the moment, funds or individual , is identifying a spread of investments that will  safely return sufficient income to enable a retiree to live comfortably.



That is so very true Bas, interest rates at or near 0%, most companies hording capital and with that dividends, rents (commercial and residential) tumbling.
There is certainly going to be a lot of people caught, unless they have enough savings for a protracted slowdown, it really wont matter too much where your money is investment returns will drop.
The endless boom has certainly come to a grinding halt ATM, we're just lucky you don't need a ton of money to enjoy life in Aus, there are a lot of people in less fortunate countries that are doing it a lot tougher and have no welfare system.


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

Humid said:


> You keep bringing Bill up so here you go
> Bill get elected your fund isn’t viable anymore you join Australian super
> Now sitting prettier
> 
> ...



I'll come and hot bunk with you, as long as you aren't as sweaty, as your name sounds.


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

Social distancing......sorry mate


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is so very true Bas, interest rates at or near 0%, most companies hording capital and with that dividends, rents (commercial and residential) tumbling.
> There is certainly going to be a lot of people caught, unless they have enough savings for a protracted slowdown, it really wont matter too much where your money is investment returns will drop.
> The endless boom has certainly come to a grinding halt ATM, we're just lucky you don't need a ton of money to enjoy life in Aus, there are a lot of people in less fortunate countries that are doing it a lot tougher and have no welfare system.




The way it is setup in this country is you could quite possibly be on less than the pension and self funded
Good time to lobby for change


----------



## Knobby22 (25 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well that highlights what I was saying, the most despised sector of society.




They are not despised, its just a trap for


basilio said:


> Don't know about that...
> On almost any analysis a cheaply run SMF fund that was in Banks and say Argo for dividends and a good spread  across the ASX   (and would have been eligible for franking credits as well !)  would have been  a sound  investment choice.
> 
> I can't see how any other super funds would have provided a  better outcome. Certainly the retail funds would be a worse outcome. Industry funds probably only a few percent better.
> ...




If you are in a large super fund you get that spread of assets and you are able to change asset allocation almost instantly.

For instance, I switched at the start of this to capital stable which showed only a minor drop and a few weeks back put half on Conservative. I am now breakeven on my super.

Now if I was retired I would have bought an annuity stream that would guarantee a certain income and then left the rest in Super. I will have a few shares out of super as my playthings + I can buy shares through the Super Fund if its someone like Australian Super also.

Many people should not be running self funded super, can they beat the professionals after fees, how do they get a decent spread of investments?
If you are not getting the excellent returns of Australian Super for instance then why go through the extra pain and cost?

I don't plan to have an SMF and I'm pretty good with the share market.
The only reason most people get into them is that they are convinced by the right wing media marketing and a dislike for the Industry Funds. Of course there are those investors and traders who run their own successfully and good on them, but that's not the average Joe who will now be looking to the government (ie taxpayers) to bail them out.


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

Humid said:


> The way it is setup in this country is you could quite possibly be on less than the pension and self funded
> Good time to lobby for change



Absolutely true, as I've always said, give everyone the pension and tax the super as income.
But getting off thread.


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The only reason most people get into them is that they are convinced by the right wing media marketing and a dislike for the Industry Funds. Of course there are those investors and traders who run their own successfully and good on them, but that's not the average Joe who will now be looking to the government (ie taxpayers) to bail them out.



Actually I've never heard anyone say they dislike Industry Funds, retail funds maybe, but not Industry.
All the people I know who run their own SMSF's, do so because they have seen enough investment companies collapse in their life time, they don't want it to happen to them.
So they are conservative investors, and usually live the same way.
Not everything is driven by the left/right wing ethos.


----------



## Knobby22 (25 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Actually I've never heard anyone say they dislike Industry Funds, retail funds maybe, but not Industry.
> All the people I know who run their own SMSF's, do so because they have seen enough investment companies collapse in their life time, they don't want it to happen to them.
> So they are conservative investors, and usually live the same way.
> Not everything is driven by the left/right wing ethos.




That may be the perception, but in reality it isn't conservative is it? It's very dangerous.
As you posted: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-11/self-managed-super-funds-warned-about-toxic-mix-by-asic/11593330


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> That may be the perception, but in reality it isn't conservative is it? It's very dangerous.
> As you posted: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-11/self-managed-super-funds-warned-about-toxic-mix-by-asic/11593330



SMSF in general have a high cash content, as opposed to mainstream funds, that wss one of the drivers to force them over to Industry Funds.
I am nearly 50% cash.


----------



## sptrawler (31 May 2020)

Results of the financial impact are starting to come in, as we suspected some industries will feel little if any effect, Austal has reported very little impact to earnings.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Extremely low risk? Not if you are in the age range of 45-74 and especially with existing medical pre conditions. Also the new found link to children where it attacks their hearts is worrying.



This is the problem as I see it.

Having those who are low risk catch it requires knowing who those low risk people are and we don’t seem to have an effective means of determining that.

30 years old, fit and never been a smoker doesn’t seem to automatically mean you’re in the low risk group.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 May 2020)

Some are saying the _*sharing economy*_ will make a recovery, aided by the technology. I'm not so sure as people's habits are likely to change.

The Chinese are a bit further down the curve and some interesting patterns and avoidances are emerging:
https://amp-scmp-com.cdn.ampproject...ooths-and-massage-chairs-china-covid-19-takes


----------



## basilio (31 May 2020)

The current riots and protests across the US over the police killing of  George Floyd will cause further economic pressure on the US.

Extensive property damage possibly not covered by insurance and the risk of substantial increases in COVID 19 infections through the crowds of protesters can't be good. 

And of course this hasn't finished yet.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The Chinese are a bit further down the curve and some interesting patterns and avoidances are emerging




I've long thought that some of it was a good idea and I've little doubt that will continue but some examples were just a way of being cheap and nasty and a "poor man's" approach to the situation.

So-called "hot desking" is one way to lose good staff for example. It's a sure sign of management that sees staff as a commodity and doesn't want any real commitment from them. It always seemed like an idea that someone who's good with numbers in the short term but not at all good with managing people came up with. Save some money on office space, lose your best staff in the process. 

Car sharing is another one. There' a market for it but I've always thought that most will choose to have their own car and leave the baby seat, dog's toys or whatever in it. Plus the hygiene factor was an issue even before the pandemic and obviously it's a far bigger issue now.


----------



## sptrawler (4 June 2020)

basilio said:


> The current riots and protests across the US over the police killing of  George Floyd will cause further economic pressure on the US.
> 
> Extensive property damage possibly not covered by insurance and the risk of substantial increases in COVID 19 infections through the crowds of protesters can't be good.
> 
> And of course this hasn't finished yet.



The property damage will be an added stimulus, talking of which, the Australian Government is giving $25k building grants, for home renovations and new builds.
The proviso's spend must be $125k and it can only be on PPR (own home, not investment).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...onstruction-stimulus-renovations-25k/12317786


----------



## basilio (6 June 2020)

A concerted push from Central Bankers to tackle global heating as a major part of a COVID 19 economic package.
Makes a change from subsidizing $150k renovations..

* The world must seize this opportunity to meet the climate challenge *
As current and former central bankers, we believe the pandemic offers a unique chance to green the global economy

We are currently in the midst of the most severe macroeconomic shock since the second world war. The disruption to our daily lives and subsequent impact on our economies has been enormous. We are seeing first-hand that a collective response is needed to defeat a common enemy, as authorities across the world courageously mobilise all available resources to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

This crisis offers us a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rebuild our economy in order to withstand the next shock coming our way: climate breakdown. Unless we act now, the climate crisis will be tomorrow’s central scenario and, unlike Covid-19, no one will be able to self-isolate from it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/world-climate-breakdown-pandemic


----------



## jbocker (6 June 2020)

basilio said:


> A concerted push from Central Bankers to tackle global heating as a major part of a COVID 19 economic package.
> Makes a change from subsidizing $150k renovations..
> 
> * The world must seize this opportunity to meet the climate challenge *
> ...



The countries of the world have learnt how globally fragile our existence can be, with covid-19. However I fear little will be extrapolated to the effects of climate shifts on our existence. It is difficult for most to correlate bush fires droughts hurricanes etc to the climate, each of which are regionally localised, and difficult to get a "pandemic" rating.


----------



## basilio (7 June 2020)

The economic returns, environmental returns and employment returns on investing in renewable energy vs fossil fuel are  overwhelming.
Why won't a rational Government recognise that reality and  swing its support behind the industry ?

* Renewable energy stimulus can create three times as many Australian jobs as fossil fuels *

Government spending on clean energy would deliver 100,000 new jobs, EY assessment finds
Stimulus programs backing clean energy as a path out of recession would create nearly three times as many jobs for every dollar spent on fossil fuel developments, according to a financial consultancy analysis.

The assessment by professional services firm Ernst & Young (EY) says a government focus on renewable energy and climate-friendly projects to drive the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic could create more than 100,000 direct jobs across the country while cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Commissioned by environment group the World Wide Fund for Nature, the EY report suggests fast-tracking wind and solar farms that have already been approved, increasing electricity transmission capacity and backing new industries in battery manufacturing, electric buses, renewable hydrogen and manufacturing powered by renewable energy.

It estimates every $1m spent on renewable energy and exports creates 4.8 full-time jobs in renewable infrastructure or 4.95 jobs in energy efficiency. By comparison, $1m on fossil fuel projects has been found to create 1.7 full-time jobs.

That suggests that if 10% of what the federal and state governments had indicated they would spend in response to Covid-19 was directed towards clean projects it could create 160,000 jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...bs-fossil-fuels-coronavirus-economic-recovery


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## basilio (7 June 2020)

Further details on the Ernst Young assessment.
*Green stimulus could unlock 100,000+ new Australian jobs, if Morrison would embrace it*
https://reneweconomy.com.au/green-s...lian-jobs-if-morrison-would-embrace-it-40567/


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## qldfrog (7 June 2020)

A post i put on another social media

A thought for the hard hit in our society
Between all our talks about covid 19, i believe we should think of the impact, current and future, of these events on our youth:
I would say early teens to mid twenties whose lives got stopped, jobs lost and future crushed for the sake of other generations.
Moreover, with the government spendings now happening, their future will be of either high taxation or just economic and lifestyle level collapse.
So thank you, and i hope you guys and girls can still/will still enjoy avocado on toast in the coming years


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## Dona Ferentes (7 June 2020)

Nonsense, (in the nicest way), _mon frère_, .most Gen Whatever's (I've heard Gen C  but that is yet to be proven) .. aren't over-analysing. There's a resilience built in. Life isn't stopped, it's an adventure of sorts. For many, fallback positions exist because of their relative inexperience. Which is the saving grace.

The world needs fewer helicopter parents, less proactive intervention.  Something will happen.


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## Dona Ferentes (7 June 2020)

PS avocado and toast is just like avocado and baked beans, but with avocado rather than baked beans, on top.


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## qldfrog (7 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Nonsense, (in the nicest way), _mon frère_, .most Gen Whatever's (I've heard Gen C  but that is yet to be proven) .. aren't over-analysing. There's a resilience built in. Life isn't stopped, it's an adventure of sorts. For many, fallback positions exist because of their relative inexperience. Which is the saving grace.
> 
> The world needs fewer helicopter parents, less proactive intervention.  Something will happen.



you are too harsh, talk to a year 12 kid, who has had school stopped, sport, friends out of reach, as a teen, you are rejecting the family and learning to fly by your own joining tribes..well got stuck with mum dad and sibblings for months.This is genuinely nightmare..and probably not only for them
as for job opportunities, good luck


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## Dona Ferentes (7 June 2020)

If, BIG IF, we come through this, the resilience will kick in.

(Over) Analysis can lead to paralysis.

Though I feel for those that fell through the cracks, recognising that reality. Timing has delivered some uncomfortable outcomes.


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## Smurf1976 (7 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> If, BIG IF, we come through this, the resilience will kick in.




From personal observation adversity tends to be a make or break thing.

There's plenty of examples where an individual, group or business suffered a major setback and then either came back far better and stronger than before or alternatively disappeared completely. 

Finding an example where there was no impact, they just went back to "business as usual", tends to be somewhat harder. It seems to either kill you or make you stronger in practice.


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## SirRumpole (10 June 2020)

Some more disturbing news about links between covid and other conditions.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...down-with-covid-linked-disease-mis-c/12332340


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## Sdajii (10 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Some more disturbing news about links between covid and other conditions.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...down-with-covid-linked-disease-mis-c/12332340




Imagine if we had this same absurd attitude with everything in life. This chinavirus is the most overrated thing we've seen since the Y2K bug.


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## Kremmen (10 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This chinavirus is the most overrated thing we've seen since the Y2K bug.



The massive amount of extra work that millions of people did to update systems to cope with Y2K is what prevented it being a global disaster. The period from mid 1998 until late 2000 was easily the busiest and most lucrative for IT workers in the past 30 years. (Late 2000 because lots of minor things still did have to be fixed during 2000 and because other projects which had been put on hold then received attention.) ... So probably not the comparison you intended.


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## Smurf1976 (11 June 2020)

Kremmen said:


> The massive amount of extra work that millions of people did to update systems to cope with Y2K is what prevented it being a global disaster.




Much the same with COVID-19 and indeed everything from aviation safety to medicine.

It's because precautions are taken that not much bad stuff happens. Remove the precautions and then the bad things do happen.


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## SirRumpole (11 June 2020)

Is it all about to start again because of a few idiots ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...tter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130


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## sptrawler (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is it all about to start again because of a few idiots ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...tter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130



Might be time to stock up on toilet paper.

Obviously the protesters think 'black lives matter', is more important than Australian elderly lives.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 June 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Might be time to stock up on toilet paper.
> 
> Obviously the protesters think 'black lives matter', is more important than Australian elderly lives.



and other people's livelihoods clearly don't matter much.


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## sptrawler (11 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and other people's livelihoods clearly don't matter much.



Also there was a great deal of effort to keep indigenous groups safe, well that was obviously a pointless excercise, they were well represented in the march.


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## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Much the same with COVID-19 and indeed everything from aviation safety to medicine.
> 
> It's because precautions are taken that not much bad stuff happens. Remove the precautions and then the bad things do happen.




In some cases this is true, in others it's not. Aviation safety does make a fair bit of sense because flying big metal tubes full of humans around is inherently extremely dangerous. Medicine in the west is a case of things going too far. Sure, it's lovely to have over the top safety standards, but this makes it prohibitively expensive for many people, which means those people suffer and/or die. There's a sweet spot for safety standards between having none, making it too dangerous, and having too much, making it too expensive.

In the case of the chinavirus, we have gone absurdly too far. Appropriate would have been to carry on more or less with business as usual but with reasonable social distancing, personal hygiene promotion and common sense approach to high risk things (like crowds etc, sure, cancel large public gatherings etc). The extreme restrictions will kill and harm for more people than the virus would have if we had done literally nothing at all to mitigate it. It's actually entirely possible that we won't have even significantly mitigated it, just delayed it. A vaccine is unlikely, and if we don't get one, we'll have community transmission anyway since these lockdowns/restrictions are not indefinitely sustainable. As long as we do have them, we are causing huge increases to depression, suicide and massive economic distress, etc etc.


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## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is it all about to start again because of a few idiots ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...tter-protester-diagnosed-coronavirus/12343130




Again? When did it happen the first time? We've seen all of 102 deaths in Australia, total! *EVERY DAY* in Australia many hundreds of people die, whether it's cancer, AIDS, slipping over in the shower, being murdered, killing themselves, being eaten by a shark or dying in a house fire. The median age of those people killed in Australia so far was over 80 years. The average life expectancy in Australia is 82.3 years! I mean, if this "all happens again", gee, time to kill your neighbours and loot their toilet paper supply. I'm in my 40s and not a single person in Australia as young as me has died from Chinavirus.

And you may say "Oh, but Australia is doing really well! What about those countries with the biggest death rates, like Spain and Italy!"

Well, those countries have average age of Chinavirus death victims spot on their respective countries' average life expectancies! I've looked up the figures myself, checking the official COVID-19 figures and cross referencing with their own countries' governments' official life expectancy figures.


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## wayneL (11 June 2020)

Stop challenging the narrative, @Sdajii 

We need to keep ramping up the fear and keep stoking unreasonable, irrational responses to this!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Again? When did it happen the first time? We've seen all of 102 deaths in Australia, total! *EVERY DAY* in Australia many hundreds of people die, whether it's cancer, AIDS, slipping over in the shower, being murdered, killing themselves, being eaten by a shark or dying in a house fire. The median age of those people killed in Australia so far was over 80 years. The average life expectancy in Australia is 82.3 years! I mean, if this "all happens again", gee, time to kill your neighbours and loot their toilet paper supply. I'm in my 40s and not a single person in Australia as young as me has died from Chinavirus.
> 
> And you may say "Oh, but Australia is doing really well! What about those countries with the biggest death rates, like Spain and Italy!"
> 
> Well, those countries have average age of Chinavirus death victims spot on their respective countries' average life expectancies! I've looked up the figures myself, checking the official COVID-19 figures and cross referencing with their own countries' governments' official life expectancy figures.




Thanks @Sdajii . I am told by those in the know that Australia escaped a bullet by the closure of borders, it's wider geographic separation of the population and having a well functioning Public Health system. The latter is in part due to the many nasty bugs such as Q Fever, Dengue and Grey Nomads in Caravans which assail us continually throughout the year. Thus we were in a sweet spot to have only just over 100 deaths. 

As the show ain't over until the fat lady sings and Covid-19 is still playing the violin, it ain't over yet. 

Most deaths were in the 60+, particularly the 80+ age groups, this may not be the case in the future, so even from a utilitarian point of view, never mind ethical it is worth fighting to our last Grey Nomad. 

I will get someone more interested in a gong to check your interpretation of the figures. 

gg


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## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Sdajii . I am told by those in the know that Australia escaped a bullet by the closure of borders, it's wider geographic separation of the population and having a well functioning Public Health system. The latter is in part due to the many nasty bugs such as Q Fever, Dengue and Grey Nomads in Caravans which assail us continually throughout the year. Thus we were in a sweet spot to have only just over 100 deaths.
> 
> As the show ain't over until the fat lady sings and Covid-19 is still playing the violin, it ain't over yet.
> 
> ...




Haha, your post gave me a laugh, as yours often do! I've so far managed to ward off the scourge of the dreaded grey nomads. Actually, the last I had to do with some was a lovely experience when I was hitchhiking in NT and a couple from Netherlands gave me a ride. Not much later I grew a few grey hairs myself, so maybe I haven't been as fortunate as I first thought!

Why would the average age of fatalities drop? This disease doesn't seem to affect younger people significantly. For the most part it just knocks people off if they were already close to death, either due to age or another medical issue. Mutation is only likely to make the disease milder, and assuming we don't come up with an effective vaccine (which is overwhelmingly most likely, since we've been trying for longer than I've been alive to create vaccines for conoraviruses and have never succeeded, despite in some cases trying very hard, such as for the closely related SARS virus, which the focus of a very large amount of research, with no vaccine possible), I don't see any reason to think it will become more aggressive. Both through mutation and through medical developments, death will become decreasingly likely, meaning the average age of death should increase not decrease, unless it ends up killing very few old people and only knocking over a tiny number of people who were just about dead anyway, or if we keep counting people as COVID-19 deaths if they die in car accidents etc. Even old mate George Floyd was infected with the Chinavirus, and if his case had not been given so much publicity he likely would have been written up as a COVID-19 fatality.

Ignoring the critically ill, the average age of death should have two significant forces pushing it up, and none pushing it down.

Since I didn't really give much interpretation in my previous post it would be hard to get your interested associates to check it, but by all means do get the figures themselves checked. For the most part it's very easy; Professor Google will readily supply you with the official figures of average age of COVID-19 deaths by country, and even more readily give you life expectancies for any countries you desire.


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## Country Lad (11 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Sdajii .........and Grey Nomads in Caravans which assail us continually throughout the year.......



That reminds me, I must drive my motorhome up and down your street, not leave room for you to drive past or even accidentally park across your driveway while we sit outside in our camping chairs drinking wine and reminiscing about all the places we have seen in Australia over the past 14 years which you and most other Australians don't even know exist.


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## SirRumpole (11 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Stop challenging the narrative, @Sdajii
> 
> We need to keep ramping up the fear and keep stoking unreasonable, irrational responses to this!




Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?


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## wayneL (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?



To be fair, I think their recommendations were according to information and *modelling* available every time, but has a noted Economist remarked recently, epidemiology models are as bad as predicting outcomes as economic models 

With the benefit of hindsight I think we can say that the world has overreacted, this being the opinion of many experts in the field, rather than my own. Certainly in a cost vs benefit analysis, both in terms of economics, and lost lives and health outcomes overall, we have screwed up hugely.

I do think that the "irrational and unreasonable" narrative can most certainly be leveled at the mainstream media.... Or perhaps it is just intentional?


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## SirRumpole (11 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> To be fair, I think their recommendations were according to information and *modelling* available every time, but has a noted Economist remarked recently, epidemiology models are as bad as predicting outcomes as economic models




Who was that economist may I ask ?


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Haha, your post gave me a laugh, as yours often do! I've so far managed to ward off the scourge of the dreaded grey nomads. Actually, the last I had to do with some was a lovely experience when I was hitchhiking in NT and a couple from Netherlands gave me a ride. Not much later I grew a few grey hairs myself, so maybe I haven't been as fortunate as I first thought!
> 
> Why would the average age of fatalities drop? This disease doesn't seem to affect younger people significantly. For the most part it just knocks people off if they were already close to death, either due to age or another medical issue. Mutation is only likely to make the disease milder, and assuming we don't come up with an effective vaccine (which is overwhelmingly most likely, since we've been trying for longer than I've been alive to create vaccines for conoraviruses and have never succeeded, despite in some cases trying very hard, such as for the closely related SARS virus, which the focus of a very large amount of research, with no vaccine possible), I don't see any reason to think it will become more aggressive. Both through mutation and through medical developments, death will become decreasingly likely, meaning the average age of death should increase not decrease, unless it ends up killing very few old people and only knocking over a tiny number of people who were just about dead anyway, or if we keep counting people as COVID-19 deaths if they die in car accidents etc. Even old mate George Floyd was infected with the Chinavirus, and if his case had not been given so much publicity he likely would have been written up as a COVID-19 fatality.
> 
> ...



Unfortunately @Sdajii you are falling in to the bias known as "who outside there?". I just made that one up but we will stick with it as it's good. You are only looking at humans, us, even that most miserable of ribbon of traffic along a rural highway, Grey Nomads in convoy.

You need to look at the virus. At the organism. A tiny protein. A sliver of RNA.

It is called Novel Coronavirus as it is new. Very new. Nobody has ever seen it since Adam and Eve munched on an apple and got down and dirty. The doctors know bugger all about it. The sicker the people the more virus it spews out, and on to the next human. It causes different immune responses in different people. It causes other things such as clots and brain changes ( look at Boris Johnson even more imbecilic since he had it ). Many people who have had it even severely do not get a good antibody response which means, I am told, they may get it again next year or the year after when those antibodies fade away as I am told they do with coronaviruses. This is why we get colds year in year out.

This is not your regular virus. A vaccine is far, far away my learned friends tell me. The effective vaccine exists atm in the minds of the bulls on Wall St. and The Tangerine Clown in the White House.

It may find it's way back in to a wet market and an animal. It is already in every lab between here and Wuhan going the long way around via Atlanta, except in NZ. Don't get me started on NZ. Thus this virus imo is not finished with us and for that reason I see a number of major faults with economic projections  "once it is over" which I will list as follows. I don't use google, just dot points.

The pandemic is not over. Where there are no cases e.g. Africa there has been no testing.
Governments lie. Russia has very few deaths from an enormous number of cases.
Before you know it we will be heading back in to winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Because it is live in labs it may be changed, will break out again, not intentionally.
It may combine in an animal in a wet market and then we have Covid-20 or Covid-21.
20 and 21 may have different characteristics, may be more aggressive in people with herpes e.g.
This will ensure that Grey Nomads won't get it as all they do is reminisce.
Younger people may get 20 and 21.
I will get my Epidemiologist friend to examine your googling, but I'm of a mind it is out. Not very far out but then in a Chaotic System one needs only to be a teensy bit out to lose one's shirt being a bull.

gg


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## wayneL (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Who was that economist may I ask ?



I knew you would ask that, LMAO. I've listened to about a million podcasts in the last couple of weeks and I can't quite remember who it was. It might have been Professor Keen, but I will have to verify that. I'll see if I can find the exact quote.


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## SirRumpole (11 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> I knew you would ask that, LMAO. I've listened to about a million podcasts in the last couple of weeks and I can't quite remember who it was. It might have been Professor Keen, but I will have to verify that. I'll see if I can find the exact quote.





We will have epidemiologists making expert statements on economics soon.


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## macca (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?




Medical officers are expected to list the worst case scenario and the powers that be then decide where to draw the line.

A bit like when we get any medicine and the endless list of side effects means that no one can take it safely. I find it quite interesting when the people that make this stuff state boldly "all medication has side effects" 

A bit like choose which illness you prefer before taking this

I still find it puzzling why the West ignore the experienced medical officers of Asian countries,  less deaths than the West, no shutdowns, no economic catastrophe.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2020)

macca said:


> Medical officers are expected to list the worst case scenario and the powers that be then decide where to draw the line.
> 
> A bit like when we get any medicine and the endless list of side effects means that no one can take it safely. I find it quite interesting when the people that make this stuff state boldly "all medication has side effects"
> 
> ...



It is one of the problems with Western democracy.

Everyone, once off the teat is an expert, and decides what to do with their own interest and those of others as they see it. 

If everyone just did as they were told in a pandemic it would help. As you say though, the doctors are only there to advise. 

Asian countries have a tradition of "doing as they are told". Sometimes it works out well, sometimes, not. 

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (11 June 2020)

Commentators are trying to pin today's drop on Fed Reserve comments (chairman Jerome Powell noting it would be "a long road" to recovery despite the promising numbers on the US labour market recovery), but I reckon that was only the first hour. 

At 11am, the news of a CV positive for a 'protester' brought on the slow burn of a sell-off as investors worked out the way forward will be slower took the gloss off. New news, not old news.


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## wayneL (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> We will have epidemiologists making expert statements on economics soon.



It wouldn't be beyond their own purview to notice that economic models suck as much as their own


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## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Are you calling the country's medical officers irrational and unreasonable ?




Not exactly, but they only know what they know. It's the politicians who are incompetent which resulted in irrational and unreasonable action being taken...

The medical officers understand medicine. I'll give them that. But they're not economists, they're not analysts in a broad sense. They know their own field and when asked how to control a virus they'll say how to control the virus. They won't do this in the context of causing other problems, they'll just say what's best for that specific task.

Unfortunately, politicians aren't scientists and generally aren't particularly smart. They're politicians, they are talented at debating, having sharp tongues, and manipulating people's feelings. They're also talented liars.

When this situation came along, the politicians basically said "Crap, here's a virus problem, it's a priority #1 virus issue, let's consult the experts on viruses", which they did, and followed that advice without balancing it up properly against other priorities. If you followed the advice of economists they'd say don't shut down the economy. If you followed the advice of any particular professional they'd tell you whatever best suits their own area. It is the politicians' job to put everything in perspective and do what's best. They failed dismally. You are having blind faith in the system working (do I need to explain how insane that is???). Yes, the system has failed. Almost everyone, probably including you, understands that the system gets things wrong, repeatedly, often spectacularly, but somehow most people still have a high level of paradoxical faith in it, even in the face of the results and rational thinking clearly demonstrating how misplaced that faith is.


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## Smurf1976 (11 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The medical officers understand medicine. I'll give them that. But they're not economists, they're not analysts in a broad sense. They know their own field and when asked how to control a virus they'll say how to control the virus. They won't do this in the context of causing other problems, they'll just say what's best for that specific task.




Having been involved with fixing various problems with potential large impacts, the best solutions have always come about when everyone made sure they fully understood and respected what those from different areas of expertise were concerned about.

That means those in suits understanding precisely what the concerns of those wearing boots and overalls are and vice versa plus everyone in between. Only then, with all the issues clearly on the table, can the best path be found and it usually involves an element of compromise all round. 

A siloed approach is rarely the best one.


----------



## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Unfortunately @Sdajii you are falling in to the bias known as "who outside there?". I just made that one up but we will stick with it as it's good. You are only looking at humans, us, even that most miserable of ribbon of traffic along a rural highway, Grey Nomads in convoy.
> 
> You need to look at the virus. At the organism. A tiny protein. A sliver of RNA.
> 
> ...




It's a new virus, but the concepts of evolution still apply. A more aggressive strain will not outcompete the existing strain. There's a reason that viruses tend to be mild. If you kill your host too quickly, you die too. A new virus is new, which is why sometimes new viruses are more aggressive than old viruses, but over time they disappear or become more mild. Some start out mild and stay mild, or they can start out very mild and become more aggressive until they're just mild. There's a goldilocks zone for viruses. There are different types of viruses and the goldilocks zone is different for different types, for example, something like HIV is permanently in the body, so it can be severe because it spends so many years dormant, before it becomes severe. Chinavirus is a respiratory virus though, a coronavirus, so it needs to follow the coronavirus rules if it wants to live, which means over time it will become more like the common cold. If evolution was going to make Chinavirus more nasty, it already would have made the coronaviruses which cause the common cold more nasty. A severe virus kills hosts too quickly to be as effective, and in the modern world it will be detected even more quickly than in the natural world and the individual isolated, so we would eliminate it very quickly, as with SARS and MERS (if either of those had been more mild they may still be with us, in which case by now they'd have become even more mild than when they started).

I totally agree that a vaccine is most likely a long way away. I started studying genetics at university in 2002 and microbiology in 2003 and it was then that I learned why we've never been able to make a vaccine for any of the coronaviruses, which is why I was immediately saying I was sceptical about it being a realistic hope when the idea became so prevalent a few months ago.

This virus didn't start in a wet market, the wet market origin story never made sense and isn't even the official story now. Talking about it getting into a wet market now and mixing with another virus just demonstrates your own scientific illiteracy and willingness to blindly and naively follow nonsensical mainstream media narratives and propaganda.


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## Kremmen (11 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Appropriate would have been to carry on more or less with business as usual but with reasonable social distancing, personal hygiene promotion and common sense approach to high risk things (like crowds etc, sure, cancel large public gatherings etc). The extreme restrictions will kill and harm for more people than the virus would have if we had done literally nothing at all to mitigate it.



Your position is open to the same criticism that you are making though, that collateral damage may be immense. If the business-as-usual approach fills up the hospitals with Covid-19 cases, then many more people will be killed and harmed by other means because of lack of availability of hospital care.

Lockdowns/restrictions are not indefinitely sustainable, but they are sustainable for long enough to eradicate the virus, as New Zealand and much of Australia appear to have done.


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## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Having been involved with fixing various problems with potential large impacts, the best solutions have always come about when everyone made sure they fully understood and respected what those from different areas of expertise were concerned about.
> 
> That means those in suits understanding precisely what the concerns of those wearing boots and overalls are and vice versa plus everyone in between. Only then, with all the issues clearly on the table, can the best path be found and it usually involves an element of compromise all round.
> 
> A siloed approach is rarely the best one.




Exactly, but in this case the guys in suits have gone to one of the silos and taken their advice almost exclusively from that silo.


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## Sdajii (11 June 2020)

Kremmen said:


> Your position is open to the same criticism that you are making though, that collateral damage may be immense. If the business-as-usual approach fills up the hospitals with Covid-19 cases, then many more people will be killed and harmed by other means because of lack of availability of hospital care.
> 
> Lockdowns/restrictions are not indefinitely sustainable, but they are sustainable for long enough to eradicate the virus, as New Zealand and much of Australia appear to have done.




Of course a business as usual approach would have resulted in more Chinavirus fatalities (noting that the vast majority would have been not long for this world). Appropriate triage could have taken care of the other issue you raise.

Looking at the number of fatalities in 'business as usual' countries, it's really not that big a deal, not compared to the decades of problems we've set ourselves up for. Poverty is literally a killer. A crippled economy doesn't function as well. I don't care about CEOs being unable to afford a 10th Ferrari, but a strong economy is important for things like, oh, police, schools and, oh... things like *hospitals*. The insane situation has forced so many jobs to be lost, businesses to close, many permanently. This has necessitated absurdities like allowing people to sell their own superannuation. I've seen a boom in things like the sales of high end designer snakes in Australia, with people frivolously purchasing 10s of thousands of dollars worth of fancy snakes (to those who don't know me, I'm not joking, I have a lot to do with this industry and it has been amazing to see what people are spending their super on this year!). Whether people are spending their own undervalued super on fancy pet snakes or other unneeded nonsense, or using it as intended out of desperation, that's super which won't be available to them when they retire in 10, 20, 30+ years, which is going to be a continual drain on the economy for decades. Of course, this is just one of countless issues being caused. A poor economy literally kills people (just look at countries with strong economies vs. countries with poor economies and see the difference in life expectancy and lifetime morbidity - there's an extremely strong inverse correlation). Similarly, look at individual wealth vs. lifetime morbidity and life expectancy, there's a very strong inverse correlation, particularly in older people.

Compare the above to the mortality rates of business as usual countries. It's far, far below the damage we're setting ourselves up for, and likely it's even below the short term damage caused by the lockdowns!

And also, there was never any need for an either/or approach. We didn't need to choose between an absolute zero mitigation strategy or the insanity we have gone for. We could have used all mitigation strategies which didn't have a significant impact on the economy or mental health (social isolation causes depression which doesn't just ruin lives, it makes people literally end their own, and unlike the Chinavirus, this tends to affect young, healthy people rather than people who were soon to die anyway). Depression has already been a huge and growing issue in western countries over the last couple of decades, it's a problem which once caused by something often becomes recurrent, and we've just inflicted it on a huge number of people through loss of livelihood and ability to socialise.

No one is saying that the over the top measures haven't prevented deaths. The problem is that the cure is far worse than the disease, even if it actually does cure it.

And, even if we do manage to fully erradicate it from Australia, that situation only lasts for as long as the country remains isolated. It will not be at all possible to erradicate it from anywhere other than islands (Australia being by far the largest unless you want to obtusely include Antarctica). Do you want to keep Australia isolated indefinitely, waiting for a vaccine which will probably never come, only to say 'Oh, crap!' when new cases do inevitably slip into Australia, forcing ongoing or frequent periods of lockdown?


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's a new virus, but the concepts of evolution still apply. A more aggressive strain will not outcompete the existing strain. There's a reason that viruses tend to be mild. If you kill your host too quickly, you die too. A new virus is new, which is why sometimes new viruses are more aggressive than old viruses, but over time they disappear or become more mild. Some start out mild and stay mild, or they can start out very mild and become more aggressive until they're just mild. There's a goldilocks zone for viruses. There are different types of viruses and the goldilocks zone is different for different types, for example, something like HIV is permanently in the body, so it can be severe because it spends so many years dormant, before it becomes severe. Chinavirus is a respiratory virus though, a coronavirus, so it needs to follow the coronavirus rules if it wants to live, which means over time it will become more like the common cold. If evolution was going to make Chinavirus more nasty, it already would have made the coronaviruses which cause the common cold more nasty. A severe virus kills hosts too quickly to be as effective, and in the modern world it will be detected even more quickly than in the natural world and the individual isolated, so we would eliminate it very quickly, as with SARS and MERS (if either of those had been more mild they may still be with us, in which case by now they'd have become even more mild than when they started).
> 
> I totally agree that a vaccine is most likely a long way away. I started studying genetics at university in 2002 and microbiology in 2003 and it was then that I learned why we've never been able to make a vaccine for any of the coronaviruses, which is why I was immediately saying I was sceptical about it being a realistic hope when the idea became so prevalent a few months ago.
> 
> This virus didn't start in a wet market, the wet market origin story never made sense and isn't even the official story now. Talking about it getting into a wet market now and mixing with another virus just demonstrates your own scientific illiteracy and willingness to blindly and naively follow nonsensical mainstream media narratives and propaganda.



Sorry @Sdajii, this thread does not give me the time to argue these points. 

My doctor mates tell me many of your points are wrong or partly wrong/nearly right which is sometimes worse. 

I never said the virus "started" in a wet market, but then I naively assumed you read my posts. 

Stay safe and well mate.

gg


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## MrChow (12 June 2020)

*https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/tre...says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again.html*


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## Smurf1976 (12 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Looking at the number of fatalities in 'business as usual' countries, it's really not that big a deal




For the USA, it's now about the same as US military deaths fighting World War 1 or twice that of the Vietnam War.

I wouldn't say that's insignificant.


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## Smurf1976 (12 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> A crippled economy doesn't function as well. I don't care about CEOs being unable to afford a 10th Ferrari, but a strong economy is important for things like, oh, police, schools and, oh... things like *hospitals*. The insane situation has forced so many jobs to be lost, businesses to close, many permanently. This has necessitated absurdities like allowing people to sell their own superannuation.




That is true but it could equally be said that there is a fundamental flaw in an economy which can't be simply turned off, paused, and turned back on again without taking forever to recover.

We live in a society, the economy is only one part of it, and it needs to be fit for purpose. There will be natural disasters, there will be another pandemic and so on and the economy needs to be designed to cope with that without falling in a long term heap just because it was turned down for a few months.

After all, it's not as though financial markets themselves don't tend to blow up roughly once a decade and strangely that seems to be considered acceptable so a once a century pandemic should be something we can cope with surely.


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## qldfrog (12 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Not exactly, but they only know what they know. It's the politicians who are incompetent which resulted in irrational and unreasonable action being taken...
> 
> The medical officers understand medicine. I'll give them that. But they're not economists, they're not analysts in a broad sense. They know their own field and when asked how to control a virus they'll say how to control the virus. They won't do this in the context of causing other problems, they'll just say what's best for that specific task.
> 
> ...



I believe the real problem is politician are so used to never admitting any mistake than they can not agree ever on saying we were wrong
The initial response was right as was the target: flatten the curve, in front of an unknown disease
Now that we understand it is basically a serious flu with just one order of magnitude worse, we could be more realistic . We should challenge  IQ and Knowledge of our own Qld so called expert .
Remember that from the start Paluchet told us we would need extreme measures until vaccine arrives, vaccine which just last week got extra funding from state.
Anyone with even a passing interest in science had alarms ringing at the time:.we will have no vaccine
We have been very lucky with the virus, far less with our governments reactions which has translated into ego boasting and power greed..for the better good....they say
We have been conned but have to be thankful the virus was not worse.
Any pretence of democracy, freedom, population intelligence and propaganda resistances has been found naked with the virus tide going away.
It is actually a terrible verdict for our so called democracy.
I was afraid of the green Muslim wave for the west, we have our own red Taliban at work and more generally a pretty dumb population ready to swallow anything
Who are we to criticize China...?


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## qldfrog (12 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is true but it could equally be said that there is a fundamental flaw in an economy which can't be simply turned off, paused, and turned back on again without taking forever to recover.
> 
> We live in a society, the economy is only one part of it, and it needs to be fit for purpose. There will be natural disasters, there will be another pandemic and so on and the economy needs to be designed to cope with that without falling in a long term heap just because it was turned down for a few months.
> 
> After all, it's not as though financial markets themselves don't tend to blow up roughly once a decade and strangely that seems to be considered acceptable so a once a century pandemic should be something we can cope with surely.



True, but should we self inflict this test.. We could possibly wipe it out in Oz.and then?
Expect the same for the rest of the world?
Smooth the curve is a great and valid concept, it means controlling and offering best chances of survival.
We are adapting here the same mistake as in fire management in our forest
Instead of yearly controlled burns, we get massive catastrophic events: in this case either medical with
Cases explosion out of nowhere or a new lockdown so economic cataclysm..


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## wayneL (12 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is true but it could equally be said that there is a fundamental flaw in an economy which can't be simply turned off, paused, and turned back on again without taking forever to recover.
> 
> We live in a society, the economy is only one part of it, and it needs to be fit for purpose. There will be natural disasters, there will be another pandemic and so on and the economy needs to be designed to cope with that without falling in a long term heap just because it was turned down for a few months.
> 
> After all, it's not as though financial markets themselves don't tend to blow up roughly once a decade and strangely that seems to be considered acceptable so a once a century pandemic should be something we can cope with surely.



There is indeed a fundamental flaw and it lies in the nature of central banking. It is something almost none of we proles understand... The creation of money and credit is not what we think it is.

Off topic for this thread, but I recommend the "Princes of the Yen" doco I posted in another thread, for a start.

(PS I'm not really claiming to understand it fully either... I'm struggling to grasp it all, but I've gotten a peek through the keyhole and I am frankly alarmed)


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## over9k (12 June 2020)

I think we can be pretty confident there's going to be more news of virus spreading in the protests/riots. There's no shortage of people at them not wearing masks and they haven't even stopped protesting/rioting yet. There's several scheduled for this evening/weekend. 

I made a big post in one of the other threads but I've nuked my positions on everything except the distance/stay at home stocks and export led stuff like mines until the rioting stops. Yesterday/last night was enough of a bloodbath as it is.


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## basilio (12 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry @Sdajii, this thread does not give me the time to argue these points.
> 
> My doctor mates tell me many of your points are wrong or partly wrong/nearly right which is sometimes worse.
> 
> ...




Sdajii overwhelming confidence in the certainty of his assertions is inversely proportional to reality.


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## basilio (12 June 2020)

US stock market has turned down sharply.
The economic reality of a spluttering economy and re expanding COVID 19 outbreak is overtaking the $1.5trillion suger hit.


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## over9k (12 June 2020)

Which was always going to happen, it just wasn't due for several weeks. The george floyd stuff brought it forward.


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## Sdajii (12 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry @Sdajii, this thread does not give me the time to argue these points.
> 
> My doctor mates tell me many of your points are wrong or partly wrong/nearly right which is sometimes worse.
> 
> ...




Oh yeah? Well, my expert  super mega world leader friends tell me your doctor mates are wrong.

Provide details or don't bother saying anything; I'm more than happy to check up specific points and if I'm wrong I'll thank you for bringing it to my attention. When it comes to the average ages of fatalities and respective country life expectancies, the figures are quite clear. When it comes to evolutionary tendencies of viruses, obviously biology comes with all sorts of exceptions and any crazy thing is technically possible, but it makes no sense to focus on extraordinarily unlikely events. You could probably take something I've said out of context, or nit pick a trivial detail (I might have unintentionally stated a strong generalisation as an absolute, for example), but if I have something meaningfully wrong, please point it out. It's technically possible that some random person in the world may have a mutation or recombinant event producing a virus which will wipe out the entire human race within a month. Sure, it's technically possible, so but unlikely it's not worth thinking about. What I said was definitely a broad brush view of the picture, not designed to look at smaller details if they are not relevant.

I never said you said the virus started in a market. You did bring up a concern about the virus getting "back into a wet market", as if this is somehow important in some way. Wet markets are little more than open air supermarkets. They are found all across not only Asia but the whole world, including Australia. It's entirely possible, even fairly likely, that there's someone infected by Chinavirus at a wet market in Australia right as I type this. It's certain that many infected people are at wet markets right now. As a qualified biologist who has spent years routinely shopping at wet markets in Asia, including buying bats (and unlike you in your colourful posts I'm saying this in a real, literal sense) I am not worried about this.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Oh yeah? Well, my expert  super mega world leader friends tell me your doctor mates are wrong.
> 
> Provide details or don't bother saying anything; I'm more than happy to check up specific points and if I'm wrong I'll thank you for bringing it to my attention. When it comes to the average ages of fatalities and respective country life expectancies, the figures are quite clear. When it comes to evolutionary tendencies of viruses, obviously biology comes with all sorts of exceptions and any crazy thing is technically possible, but it makes no sense to focus on extraordinarily unlikely events. You could probably take something I've said out of context, or nit pick a trivial detail (I might have unintentionally stated a strong generalisation as an absolute, for example), but if I have something meaningfully wrong, please point it out. It's technically possible that some random person in the world may have a mutation or recombinant event producing a virus which will wipe out the entire human race within a month. Sure, it's technically possible, so but unlikely it's not worth thinking about. What I said was definitely a broad brush view of the picture, not designed to look at smaller details if they are not relevant.
> 
> I never said you said the virus started in a market. You did bring up a concern about the virus getting "back into a wet market", as if this is somehow important in some way. Wet markets are little more than open air supermarkets. They are found all across not only Asia but the whole world, including Australia. It's entirely possible, even fairly likely, that there's someone infected by Chinavirus at a wet market in Australia right as I type this. It's certain that many infected people are at wet markets right now. As a qualified biologist who has spent years routinely shopping at wet markets in Asia, including buying bats (and unlike you in your colourful posts I'm saying this in a real, literal sense) I am not worried about this.




I apologise @Sdajii . The truth is I cannot argue the points with you. You count apples as oranges via Google. It's a non-linear chaotic argument. 

One of the regulars at the Ross Island Hotel, a Dr. Heisenberg has advised me to stick to the wave. As he said after a deep inhalation " Stick to the wave man, particles are yesterday "

So I will surf along drawing lines on charts and remain ignorant on what google determines to be the aetiology and pathogenesis of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 

gg


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## over9k (12 June 2020)

You sound like you've come to trading via a maths background, not an economics one? You're very calculation heavy, not a lot of gut analysis going on? 

Not a criticism as I'm the complete opposite so I always want to hear from the numbers guys.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 June 2020)

over9k said:


> You sound like you've come to trading via a maths background, not an economics one? You're very calculation heavy, not a lot of gut analysis going on?
> 
> Not a criticism as I'm the complete opposite so I always want to hear from the numbers guys.



handy hint, .... Multiple posters ahead!! ... please reference whom you are addressing by using REPLY button. Gets messy otherwise.


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## Dona Ferentes (12 June 2020)

In the weekend press (its about how corporates will position for the new realities)  ....https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/six-post-covid-megatrends-for-value-creation-20200611-p551lg

*Six post-COVID megatrends for value creation*

1. Cloud computing - or the digitisation of everything
2. Different Demographics
3. Environmental, social and governance
4. Debt
5. Renewable Energy
6. Geopolitics

I find pt 2 interesting, with countries responding differently according to the "_radical and likely permanent change in the spending and saving patterns of customers. These patterns differ between age groups and between countries_."

also #4; DEBT 







> Many businesses have been forced to borrow more money to get through the COVID-19 disruption. This has raised costs and will cut profit margins. That has consequences for value creation because of the change in the cost of capital and the need for increased cost-efficiency measures.
> 
> Governments around the world have taken on huge amounts of debt to pay for emergency support for workers and businesses. This debt will have to be repaid at some point. Businesses focused on creating value must ask a range of questions. Will there be higher corporate taxes? Will the GST be increased? Will superannuation funds pay more tax? Will individuals pay more tax?



3.


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## Sdajii (13 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I apologise @Sdajii . The truth is I cannot argue the points with you. You count apples as oranges via Google. It's a non-linear chaotic argument.
> 
> One of the regulars at the Ross Island Hotel, a Dr. Heisenberg has advised me to stick to the wave. As he said after a deep inhalation " Stick to the wave man, particles are yesterday "
> 
> ...




Yet again, you respond with criticism but fail to actually address any specific point, or even refer to one.

If you think I actually have something wrong, by all means spell it out, state why you think I'm wrong, and I'll be the first to thank you if I am, or if it's something ambiguous I'll agree to shrug shoulders and say it's difficult to define, or if you're wrong I'll state why I think so. Or hey, we may continue to disagree, but at least that's some sort of attempt at something meaningful rather than just saying "Nyer, you're wrong, Dr. Heisenberg said so"


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> In the weekend press (its about how corporates will position for the new realities)  ....https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/six-post-covid-megatrends-for-value-creation-20200611-p551lg
> 
> *Six post-COVID megatrends for value creation*
> 
> ...



Thanks O, Greek one. 

A very interesting post and perhaps deserving of its own thread. 

The debt taken on by small business and the maintenance and in some cases increases in wages to public servants will cause a significant rift in asset distribution. 

Demographic behaviour will change. The ageing population who were traditionally savers and distributors of capital post mortem being perceived as a disposable pandemic burden and of no consequence by many younger people, spending and transfer of wealth will change. 

The cloud, energy and geopolitics will change, as will environmental and social change. 

People with other agendas flouting the consensus behaviour during the pandemic by ignoring advice on distancing will lead to a small anarchistic rump politically. 

All of this however is of interest only to sophisticated people of an independent mind. 

Out there be bogans also. 

gg


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## Smurf1976 (13 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If you think I actually have something wrong, by all means spell it out



I think there's still a lot of unknowns about this both known unknowns and unknown unknowns (things we don't know that we don't know).

Would anyone here be willing to state the ultimate outcome, medically that is, in the USA for example? What happens and when it happens?

That's only one country, and it's a developed one which should have all the data, but there's still a lot of uncertainty as to how it all ultimately plays out.

Does the virus in due course go away on its own?

Or at the other extreme is this a permanent problem effectively forever and the ultimate result is a substantial cut to human life expectancy?

The financial implications of the latter are massive, business will be in a world of pain as will consumers and government, so it's not something to take lightly. 

At this point I don't think anyone can really say for sure how it ends.


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## Sdajii (13 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think there's still a lot of unknowns about this both known unknowns and unknown unknowns (things we don't know that we don't know).
> 
> Would anyone here be willing to state the ultimate outcome, medically that is, in the USA for example? What happens and when it happens?
> 
> ...




Obviously we don't know everything. One thing which is clear is that whether or not this goes away, it's not going to have a huge impact on human life expectancy. As I said above (and as I encourage you to verify for yourself which is very quick and easy to do), the average age of Chinavirus deaths is very very close to the average life expectancies of the respective countries they occur in. This is in the initial wave as the virus hits the world for the first time.

Okay, from here we have multiple possible scenarios, all of them extremely mild.

Scenario 1) The virus doesn't mutate quickly and fizzles out and disappears. Clearly this is a very mild scenario. It may not be likely, difficult to say, but it's obviously not a scary scenario.

Scenario 2) We come up with a medical miracle, the vaccine the world is basing its current insanity on the assumption of being produced in the near future, or perhaps a cure. As above, it's not a scary scenario. I believe a vaccine is extremely unlikely. I've been saying this since the first day I heard about the virus, and I've been appalled at action being taken on the assumption that it will happen in a reasonable timeframe, because it's extremely unlikely. A potential cure due to a medical miracle due to unprecedented research efforts is a wildcard possibility. If you want to ignore my 2c and instead go for official guidance, then you assume this is the probably scenario (an effective vaccine saves the day and we go back to business as usual, worrying about which fake character on so-called reality TV is doing what).

Scenario 3) There is no cure. There is no vaccine. This is what terrifies people, but it's really not that bad at all. The death rate is already dropping rapidly (probably partly due to mutations making the disease less aggressive, and at least partly due to improved patient management as we learn more about the virus). This virus barely effects children. So, going forward, children almost all get exposed to it, most get no symptoms, some get something like a mild cough, and then go on and live the rest of their lives without incident, perhaps occasionally being asymptomatically reinfected or perhaps not typically being reinfected. The virus becomes slightly more mild due to the natural selection inclination and management techniques get better, so the rare person who slips through and doesn't get exposed until they're old doesn't have too bad a run anyway. In the short term, everyone ends up getting exposed to the virus, the sick and elderly get knocked off slightly earlier than they otherwise would have, and this goes on until everyone has been exposed. People look back and get angry at politicians for having ruined the economy and either say 'I told you so' like I will be, or pretend that they were in that camp. This is the most likely scenario.

I invite you to find another potential scenario or tell me how any of the above are wrong. I just spitballed them now and won't guarantee they're robust or exhaustive, but at a glance they seem to be.


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## qldfrog (13 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Obviously we don't know everything. One thing which is clear is that whether or not this goes away, it's not going to have a huge impact on human life expectancy. As I said above (and as I encourage you to verify for yourself which is very quick and easy to do), the average age of Chinavirus deaths is very very close to the average life expectancies of the respective countries they occur in. This is in the initial wave as the virus hits the world for the first time.
> 
> Okay, from here we have multiple possible scenarios, all of them extremely mild.
> 
> ...



Spot on.100% agreement on the medical side
Where GG and Dona may hit a point is on the potential social et economic sides
BLM but not any other colours and even old sick black black ones
Streets full of leftist nazis burning books, history and culture in their fanatism while propagating knowingly the virus may be remembered when the grandchildren will knock at the door for a $50, or a mortgage guarantee: cultural shift, and spending patterns: spend it all...
Political shift: based on attitude during this crisis
Wider gap between people and fragmentarion of society ..if even possible.
A lot of changes to trends: sharing economy..no thanks
Own car, own home not unit, potentially move out of cities: telecommuting and space 
And i  not even want to start about debt, cash role,taxes.
imho it is a shifting event disproportionate from its medical effect but here nevertheless


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## qldfrog (13 June 2020)

A completely different effect : stats
Expect to be force field in the near future with a lot of fake true facts:
Headlines like road accident deaths jump 100pc in a year, or surge in breast cancer, etc
All attributable to lockdown with delayed consequence which will be used by different interests from political to NGO or charities and schools rating...
Be ready with your critical analysis, but hey when millions can jump behind BLM like movements with no statistical proof, i doubt many reasonable responses


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## basilio (13 June 2020)

Really amazing (terrifying actually..) how some people can totally dismiss the overflowing hospitals of China, UK, Italy, Brazil (and across the globe) with people dying left right and centre and at home from the effects of COVID 19.

Why not consider Brazil as the poster example of Sdajji Scenario 3 ? Just let it rip and afterwards everyone can say it wasn't that bad after all ? 

Truly comparing apples and rocking horse poo without a shred of awareness.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...avirus-survivors-severe-health-effects-years/
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52506669
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil


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## qldfrog (13 June 2020)

basilio said:


> Really amazing (terrifying actually..) how some people can totally dismiss the overflowing hospitals of China, UK, Italy, Brazil (and across the globe) with people dying left right and centre and at home from the effects of COVID 19.
> 
> Why not consider Brazil as the poster example of Sdajji Scenario 3 ? Just let it rip and afterwards everyone can say it wasn't that bad after all ?
> 
> ...



Wake up Basilio, no overflowing hospital in France Italy or Spain anymore
The first wave is gone and dusted as for the USA, isn't it a great example of actual do nothing effect and so ability to compare the effects , on the population which is one of the worst health on earth with obesity as a norm.
You have your worst case scenario, if not where and when?
I see more damage in the US done by the rioting BLM racists and lefties than by the virus
Has the covid killed more people than prescribed opioids medicine this year there? Do you want to compare ages of both set of victims and society costs?
self responsibility above gov control and brainwash everyday in our times ..fundamental difference between you and I


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## over9k (13 June 2020)

America is now the global epicentre. We know from case studies around the country and around the world that from the point in time of mass spreading events, we can expect to see significant surges in caseloads in three to five weeks. Memorial Day was May 25. The protests have occupied the first two weeks of June. We should expect to detect mass outbreaks across the country in _both _Red and Blue states in late-June and especially in July.

As to size, consider the case of Austin, Texas. Just two weeks after Memorial Day, Austin has already seen caseloads _double_. That’s before the protests have had a chance to add their own fuel to the fire.

America’s quarantine efforts were insufficient to root out coronavirus, likely making it endemic to the population. That was _before_ the Memorial Day parties and protest movements. Purging the virus is now not only an impossibility, the United States is now on track to experience _the_ worst documented infection rates in the world (many countries have worse testing regimes, so labeling the US #1 without a caveat is a bit disingenuous). About the only silver lining is that vaccine development efforts continue to outperform. We are highly likely to have a functional vaccine _this year_. That still leaves questions of mass manufacturing and distribution, but even in the worst-case scenario, that process will likely require under a year.

I highly recommend following peter zeihan - his macro intel is second to none IMO.


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## Sdajii (13 June 2020)

basilio said:


> Really amazing (terrifying actually..) how some people can totally dismiss the overflowing hospitals of China, UK, Italy, Brazil (and across the globe) with people dying left right and centre and at home from the effects of COVID 19.
> 
> Why not consider Brazil as the poster example of Sdajji Scenario 3 ? Just let it rip and afterwards everyone can say it wasn't that bad after all ?
> 
> ...




Okay, dry your eyes and see some sense.

No one is dismissing any human death. No one. Stop imagining that anyone actually did that, because it didn't happen, certainly not by me.

As I've repeatedly said and you've impressively managed to ignore, every human death is sad. The issue is that we should be doing what we can to have as little of it as possible, not causing 100 deaths here to save 1 death there.

The initial wave in China (and UK, Spain, etc) already happened anyway. It was in the early stages. Even in countries where the number of cases is continuing to decline, the proportion of fatalities and almost always the empirical number of fatalities is also falling. Look at any example you like, please actually do this, and check the average age of deaths vs. the average life expectancy for the respective country, and you find that the average Chinavirus deaths occur barely below average life expectancy. Old people die, it's what has always happened, it's what always will happen unless we cure aging. Something knocks old people over, their death is always inevitable. It's often a cold or flu or something trivial, because when they're right at the end, something is going to knock them over, no matter how small a thing it is. Death is inevitable. We don't generally worry about those deaths and neither should we, but in this case we're finding reason to get far too concerned about old people dying their inevitable deaths slightly earlier than they would otherwise have.

This really isn't that bad.

Now, you can take the 'even one death one day earlier than it had to be is a terrible tragedy' line, and that's perfectly fine, let's run with it. That's what we might have the option of mitigating to some extent. To be worthwhile, we need to do less damage than we save. Very, very obviously (to anyone not following the media hype and public hysteria) we are causing damage orders of magnitude greater than what we are preventing. Even if we look at the poster children of 'let it run its course without mitigation', we don't see as much damage being caused as what we are causing from the mitigation efforts.

Make a realistic attempt at quantifying the situation. Perhaps most people can't understand this, but this is the equation:

A - The total potential damage done by the virus with no mitigation efforts
B - The damage done by the virus given mitigation efforts
C - The damage done by the mitigation efforts

To be worthwhile, A minus B must be greater than C.

(I've spoken the above aloud but never typed it or seen it written anywhere, probably because the people who can understand it know that most people can't and almost anyone who can doesn't need it shown to them)

As it is, we have a value of C clearly much much higher than A minus B, this is insane. In Australia we actually clearly have C being much larger than A, let alone A minus B. This is also true of a slightly lesser extent of the world as a whole, and in most countries.

You are focussing only on reducing B, and imagining that A is far larger than it is, and you're failing to acknowledge the significance of C, despite it being by far the largest value in the equation.


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## Knobby22 (13 June 2020)

The USA looking like losing 0.5% of it's population. 
Not to  mention permanent lung damage to another 0.5%. and we know the official figures are dodgy as the death rate is well above normal even removing the official covad figures.

We are all going back to something approaching normality with businesses reopening.

The USA has at least another 6 months of misery and businesses open with no custom. I have a friend there and the pubs may be open but there is little custom.

No way I would want to be in their shoes.

The countries that took it seriously are now in a much better position. Look at South Korea, you can go and watch Phantomof the Opera in a packed theatre.

I think you are believing too much propaganda Sdjai. And that's what it is,.


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## Sdajii (13 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The USA looking like losing 0.5% of it's population.




Tell me, what percentage of the USA's population does it lose every year? (hint, last year it lost more than 0.5%, the year before and the year before that... every year it loses far more than 0.5% of its population!)



> Not to  mention permanent lung damage to another 0.5%. and we know the official figures are dodgy as the death rate is well above normal even removing the official covad figures.




Every time anyone gets a cold or any other form of respiratory tract infection they get some level of permanent lung damage. The question is how much. In reality, this is not a relevant concern in the big picture.



> We are all going back to something approaching normality with businesses reopening.




You're quick to overhype the virus issue and underhype the mitigation cost issue.



> The USA has at least another 6 months of misery and businesses open with no custom. I have a friend there and the pubs may be open but there is little custom.
> 
> No way I would want to be in their shoes.




The USA has its own set of problems. Love Trump or hate Trump, it is clearly obvious that those who hate Trump are trying to tear the country apart and the whole place is a mess. The USA is by far the worst affected country by the virus, which is at least somewhat odd given that even third world countries with almost no mitigation effort still did better. Make what you want of that, but it should raise eyebrows, and the USA is certainly not representative of the world as a whole, indeed, it is literally the single most extreme example, and inexplicably so.



> The countries that took it seriously are now in a much better position. Look at South Korea, you can go and watch Phantomof the Opera in a packed theatre.




You can cherry pick your data if you want to, and South Korea is literally the most extreme cherry to suit your purposes, but it's not representative of the big picture. They are a case where they had a culture and system which allowed for the best management in the world, taking into account population density. South Korea is the exception, not the rule, but even there, I'm pretty sure that in the long term, C will be greater than A minus B. It's possible that South Korea will buck that trend though. In a country like Australia, the cost of C for a similar proportionate decrease in A was always going to be much higher. There's comparing apples to oranges, and then there's comparing apples to frogs.

One thing South Korea did which Australia could have done (well, culturally it probably would have been impossible but conceptually it was possible) would have been to go absolutely all out with the lockdown right from the start (I was saying this in March when the lockdowns were first announced, if you're going to bother doing this at all, it only makes sense if you do it properly, not half heartedly) to effectively eliminate it very quickly, allowing a return to normality in a short period of time. Asian culture is different. South Korea has a unified group culture, not an individualistic culture like Australia. You don't get massive protest marches in the middle of a pandemic there, or a large number of people who ignore the rules. Patriotism and loyalty to the community are far more universal among people, unlike in the west where patriotism has literally become taboo. 



> I think you are believing too much propaganda Sdjai. And that's what it is,.




It's bizarre to say I'm listening to propaganda when the mainstream propaganda is what you're repeating, and what I'm saying is literally unique. I've literally never seen anyone else present it in the terms I have above (which I find a bit surprising since it's the obvious formula for evaluating this situation). I was astounded by the lockdowns when they were first announced and I didn't anticipate such stupidity. I'd heard no propaganda either way, I was setting up a business in Asia, I was on a two week trip to Australia where I'm currently trapped, I was immediately amazed when I heard the first announcements and was immediately saying the same thing I'm saying now, without any external influence, so clearly I'm not being swayed by propaganda! It's funny how people who blindly follow propaganda assume that others are the ones doing that!


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## Smurf1976 (13 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Wake up Basilio, no overflowing hospital in France Italy or Spain anymore



Emphasis on the word "anymore". There's plenty of countries which have paid a high price for being too slow to act on this one.

Thankfully Australia isn't one of them from a medical perspective, although we arguably paid an unnecessarily high price financially by delaying the border closure. Had we done it sooner, had we not had people coming in infected and spreading it, we'd have lost a few tourist $ but contained the whole thing far more quickly. Aggressive action right at the start would have been a better approach so far as I can determine.

Where the ongoing issue exists is with what to do now?

Business will argue that we need to open up real quick and so on.

The same businesses will be screaming like there's no tomorrow if we open up so quickly that there's another outbreak and the only way to avoid overflowing hospitals is another major lockdown.

A problem there is that business expects they can socialise the cost if it goes wrong thus creating a bias toward taking on more risk than they would if faced with the full cost directly and no bailout.

The medical side of the argument has the same problem in a mirror image and will naturally bias toward a slower reopening because they aren't directly incurring the cost of things being shut down.

Both sides of the debate are compromised by vested interests so far as I can see. It's not about what's the best approach medically or which minimises any particular downside financially but rather, it's about what's best for whichever group is arguing for it and the truth will be somewhere in the middle.


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## Knobby22 (13 June 2020)

0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus. 
But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

And it is the nations duty to look after its citizens, even people 60 years old and older. Not to mention the long term effects to people who recover.


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## Smurf1976 (13 June 2020)

Looking at the US figures, for 12 June the reported new cases is 27,221 which is the highest since 21 May.

Looking at it on a chart, it looks awfully like a breakout. It's a higher high when compared to the recent peaks on 29 May (25,656) and 5 June (25,393).

I base that comment on figures from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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## wayneL (13 June 2020)

Some data on the A, B, C equation


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## Smurf1976 (13 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Some data on the A, B, C equation



How many of those excess deaths were due to COVID-19?

That is those diagnosed as well as those who had heart attacks etc and were dead and presumably not even tested for it?


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## Sdajii (13 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> 0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus.
> But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.




Utter garbage, and this will be very easy to see in the near future. In 1-2 years we will have the data set of human fatalities, and we'll see that there has been very little increase in the number of human fatalities. The vast majority of fatalities have been people who were not long for this world anyway, and this will become very evident when we don't see an overall increase in human death.

In Australia, obviously, it's not even a blip on the radar. 102 deaths so far in half a year, with the spike over, we're not getting any more deaths now. It's possible we won't get another one at all. 102 is well within the variation in the number of deaths Australia sees between one day and the next!

I don't think any country is going to see a reduction in population due to Chinavirus deaths. Maybe due to all the insane political and economic turmoil, there will be migration or war which will reduce the population of some places, but not the virus itself, because *it's literally killing people around the time the vast majority of them would have died anyway*.


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## Knobby22 (14 June 2020)

"Australia's deaths are but a blip."
Yes, I agree! This low result is because we did the actions you so disdain. Circuitous logic. 

Use the USA example to support your argument, official or unofficial figures, the result is the same, massive numbers of deaths. Note that with the official covad figures you have to take into account the fact that you are not counted unless you die in a hospital (nursing homes are not hospitals, nor your own bed) and also if you are in a state like Florida you are not counted if you have a pre existing condition. So tell me why you think there is such a low death rate again?

Or look to Brazil to support your argument. Have you seen the mass graves? Do you believe their figures? 

The truth is that lies are being spread to hide the disaster to calm the populace. Clearly it is only partially successful.


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## Knobby22 (14 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Some data on the A, B, C equation




In Australia overall less people are dying than normal due to the lockdown due to less travel so less car deaths, transmission of the flu not occurring, less acidenents from other causes. Male suicides are up though.

The Twitter comment is obviously dubious.
Looking for an out.

My last comment on this, economically the way this pandemic is treated effects the economy.

If there is a vaccine developed then countries that have kept it under control will end up much better off. If not then eventually they will have to go down the same route as some other countries.
By then though, there will be better treatments and as you know I have a substantial investment in one company that is very promising in this space.


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## qldfrog (14 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> 0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus.
> But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
> 
> And it is the nations duty to look after its citizens, even people 60 years old and older. Not to mention the long term effects to people who recover.



And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..

Not easy..while fast we were too slow in the initial lockdown..actually stopping flights from China and cruise ships control IMHO
But i also believe we are too slow in releasing control now at least internally.
We can all agree the balance is hard to find and interests multiple.
Ideology plays between self responsabilities and nanny state views.with the tweaks of irresponsibility affecting the global community..at least a bit
But we should agree that we have to work eat and live.
Which bring it  down to vaccine
If you hope a vaccine is coming, we can carry on lockdown no release of control
If as i do, you believe/know no vaccine will be there in at least medium term..years..:
Then we need to learn how to live with it and this does not mean no pub or concert etc
It also means a more in depth look at death figures related to age existing health and temperature climate
I have no God's truth and we can all be wrong, but i trust my readings of facts more than our qld medical top guru on leash to a partisan leader
In every country there is an unprecedented power grab by gov in power.
This is twisting both what you are told and the decision making process, from China to France to QLD and even councils


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## qldfrog (14 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
> If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
> The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
> Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..
> ...



And need to add that actual treatment is actually already much better at the very least in Europe.a lot has been learnt and your odds drastically improved vs 3 months ago.hopefully the info is shared but i would not bet on it when you see the mess with the chloroquine ...


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## qldfrog (14 June 2020)

Arrrggg European countries have already ordered and prepaid 300millions dose vaccine with astrazeneca.
A future vaccine...tests results in September
Anyone with an IQ above a frog can guess that the results will obviously be positive.the company will collapse otherwise..
I just hope we will not be forced to use these early half baked attempts..
On the other hand, release a placebo, give it a 50% success rate..psychology.if you get the covid19 after bad luck..but it would been worse without
 and do like the flu now.
People who would have died would be gone already and we would just have an extra disease around with reduced life expectancy mostly the years in aged care
0 change but great for psychology
And if I'm wrong, well all is good and very happy to be proven wrong


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## Sdajii (14 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> "Australia's deaths are but a blip."
> Yes, I agree! This low result is because we did the actions you so disdain. Circuitous logic.
> 
> Use the USA example to support your argument, official or unofficial figures, the result is the same, massive numbers of deaths. Note that with the official covad figures you have to take into account the fact that you are not counted unless you die in a hospital (nursing homes are not hospitals, nor your own bed) and also if you are in a state like Florida you are not counted if you have a pre existing condition. So tell me why you think there is such a low death rate again?
> ...




The USA is by far the worst hit country, mysteriously so, but even so, let's look at it, the single most extreme example in the world.

There have now been over 100,000 deaths in the USA due to Chinavirus. Heck, let's ignore the fact that a lot of those people have been recorded as COVID-19 deaths despite the fact that other things killed them while they happened to be infected and would otherwise have recovered. Let's just look at the official figures and take them at face value (which I believe paint a far worse picture than the reality).

The USA has around 8,000 people die per day (this varies seasonally in a normal year, it's more than this in winter, but averaged to the nearest thousand, it's 8,000 per day). So far the Chinavirus has killed over 100,000 people in about half a year. The most relevant thing to keep in mind is that the vast majority of these people were going to die soon anyway!

Now, even if (and this is not the case at all) the Chinavirus deaths were actually extra deaths, not just people dying who were going to die anyway, the extra deaths per day this year would not even be as great as the difference in number of deaths per day due to seasonal variation!

The situation in Brazil is even less extreme. It's easy to get emotional and forget to think critically, when you have people would would have died over the next 6-12 months all dying within a couple of months, I mean, human death is a thing which people get emotional and irrational about and that's understandable, and I never have and never will try to discount how sad it is that those people lost a few months or in some cases a few years of their lives, but it's still not anywhere near as bad as the greater number of deaths and suffering which will be caused by the economic and social issues caused by the restrictions. There won't be any mention of the corresponding reduction in death rates over the next year or two, with funeral parlors etc having slower than usual business, you're just being shown and focussing on the immediate situation, not the big picture. The media isn't showing you emotive pictures of people who have hanged themselves, it's not publicising suicide statistics, it's not properly displaying the severity of the economic destruction, it's not encouraging people to think about the implications of a massive reduction in tax revenue and what this means for infrastructure, law, education, *HEALTHCARE* and how severe the impact will be for *DECADES*.


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## IFocus (14 June 2020)

Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.

Nothing like success breeding contempt.


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## qldfrog (14 June 2020)

IFocus said:


> Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.
> 
> Nothing like success breeding contempt.



As i tried to explain, and based on first hand contacts and families in France, people in countries which had to go thru the first wave and aware of gravity are now ready to face it.not a denial but awareness of danger yet relativity of it.
You are ready to drive a car, probably more dangerous for an 18y old than covid19. So yes it will spread but whereas the cases are still numerous, the number of deaths is decreasing and hospital non overwhelmed.
Note that northern hemisphere is in summer, and mask carrying now the norm.
Australia now has to decide if we want to become an Amish reserve or carry on living


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## wayneL (14 June 2020)

IFocus said:


> Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.
> 
> Nothing like success breeding contempt.



Undoubtedly a second wave, such is how epidemics work.

But... Important to distinguish data from narrative.

IE
Morbidity rate per 100,000 pop.
Co-morbidities
Excess morbidity rate
Median age of deaths Vs ave life span
Extraneous morbidities unrelated to covid, but as a result of economics
Morbidity rates Vs other viruses
... and a bunch of other vectors.

Such an awakening is required in order to look past the msm headlines and fear mongering and make a true and proper analysis


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
> If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
> The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
> Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..
> ...



Very good points @qldfrog . However, climate does not seem to affect cases occuring. Compare Brazil to Australia to the USA in relation to climate and number of cases. 

Releasing controls is more difficult than imposing them. In reality as with imposing controls the governments were advised by the doctors and they followed that advice, here. They also followed the advice in Sweden which was business as usual with disastrous consequences on lives lost and the economy. Denmark has taken the opposite tack to Sweden and is better off on both counts. 

Lets assume a few things. From statistics which are skewed. I'll take Italy which has a higher number of older people than many other countries. The death rate in the age group is: 40-50 1% 50-60 2.7% 60-70 10% 70-80 25% 80+ 30%. Now all these older people have friends, or children, or grandchildren, or husbands or wives and all of the younger people have similar "ors", parents, siblings, children etc. So you cannot cookie cut a trade off between letting people die and business as usual. Workers will take time off to avoid a chance they may die even if it is 1% and will want to ensure their family get good care if they are sick. It is what makes us human, caring for others, worrying about sick people, well most of us anyway.

A vaccine is the real furphy. My doctor friends tell me it is pie in the sky until mid to late 2021. And the rub is that immunity from coronavirus and hence from a vaccine may well be very shortlived unlike influenza. How many colds do people get as opposed to influenza each year or two. Just think about it. Vaccines are for Wall St. and dreamers. And the Tangerine Clown in the White House. 

The real answer in all of this is that nobody knows what the correct thing to do is. This virus is called novel for a good reason. It is new. Very new. 

I do hope we get a vaccine soon and I do hope that small business and young workers and families are not blighted by the lockdowns. It is a very difficult situation we are in. 

gg


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## qldfrog (15 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Very good points @qldfrog . However, climate does not seem to affect cases occuring. Compare Brazil to Australia to the USA in relation to climate and number of cases.
> 
> Releasing controls is more difficult than imposing them. In reality as with imposing controls the governments were advised by the doctors and they followed that advice, here. They also followed the advice in Sweden which was business as usual with disastrous consequences on lives lost and the economy. Denmark has taken the opposite tack to Sweden and is better off on both counts.
> 
> ...



Agree with you GG on vaccine pipe dream, would disagree with some of your stats ..more exactly its assumption of ongoing effect and definitively as i can experience it, the resulting effect on behaviour.
How many people are in very bad health: serious diabetic obese and existing cancer etc...these are wiped by the first waves..no denial.aged a strong factor.but for the rest..the 99,%..well they want to carry one living.
Whole movements wants to change the society for the 99% against the 1pc..do not expect less with the virus.
Whatever you or i think will not matter much when the pression will rise.facts do not matter much as we can see with BLM etc
Economically the world will restart and now that noone care about plastic straws, we will see a huge GDP boost from the virus and related activities.

I always remember the saying best GDP creation is for the terminally ill in intensive care.however flawn, this indicator will rebound and so the market


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

Big talk of a second wave in china over the weekend. Lots of ASX red as a result. Will be interesting to see how U.S is effected now as everyone were expecting a massive bounce tonight and that's now looking uncertain.


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## sptrawler (15 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Agree with you GG on vaccine pipe dream, would disagree with some of your stats ..more exactly its assumption of ongoing effect and definitively as i can experience it, the resulting effect on behaviour.
> How many people are in very bad health: serious diabetic obese and existing cancer etc...these are wiped by the first waves..no denial.aged a strong factor.but for the rest..the 99,%..well they want to carry one living.
> Whole movements wants to change the society for the 99% against the 1pc..do not expect less with the virus.
> Whatever you or i think will not matter much when the pression will rise.facts do not matter much as we can see with BLM etc
> ...



The real unknown about the virus, is if there are any long term residual problem with the virus, it may well have a dormant component that doesn't surface until the immune system becomes compromised with age or other causes.
Somewhat like shingles, they stay dormant until a person is run down, then they surface.
From what has been written about the virus, it has a HIV component, which in itself can only be controlled not erradicated.
If that is the case it would be far better to not get the virus at any age, it would also be better to let the virus run its course overseas, before allowing free flow of overseas travellers.
My guess is we aren't being told the whole story, it is the only possible answer, for such a radical intervention worldwide.
Just my opinion.


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## basilio (15 June 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The real unknown about the virus, is if there are any long term residual problem with the virus, it may well have a dormant component that doesn't surface until the immune system becomes compromised with age or other causes.
> Somewhat like shingles, they stay dormant until a person is run down, then they surface.
> From what has been written about the virus, it has a HIV component, which in itself can only be controlled not erradicated.
> If that is the case it would be far better to not get the virus at any age, it would also be better to let the virus run its course overseas, before allowing free flow of overseas travellers.
> ...




COVID 19 is totally new. Every doctor who is treating it acknowledges no one understands all the ramifications of the illness because these is insufficient experience of the disease .  There are ongoing discoveries of longer term effects on people who have recovered. A number of children seem to be affected by associated illnesses. Scientists are aware of different strains of COVID 19 plus the probability of additional mutations.

All of these issues as well as its infectiousness and capacity to severely incapacitate and kill people makes it a serious threat. 

Again, I just can't fathom how there are still people arguing to essentially let it rip when the experiences in China, Italy, France UK USA and Brazil (and many other countries) demonstrates the  accelerating death and tragedy it brings.

Promoting the concept that we should have a freely functioning economy as per 2019 while thousands of people are falling sick  and dying while infecting others who do likewise seems bizarre .


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Big talk of a second wave in china over the weekend. Lots of ASX red as a result. Will be interesting to see how U.S is effected now as everyone were expecting a massive bounce tonight and that's now looking uncertain.



I liquidated my equity portfolio again last Friday. Just sitting on cash, precious metals and 2 small cap miners.


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

I'm slightly down from friday morning buy - there's been a +4 into friday afternoon and then -8 swing today literally just since friday morning. You'd be -12 or more if you'd bought friday arvo. The volatility is just nuts.

Here I've been arguing with a quant on the "trading the trend" thread that all the old rules underpinning his models (e.g AU following USA so if USA friday is green then AU monday should be) are out the window and he's still completely against me.

Good dip to buy into though.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm slightly down from friday morning buy - there's been a +4 into friday afternoon and then -8 swing today literally just since friday morning. You'd be -12 or more if you'd bought friday arvo. The volatility is just nuts.
> 
> Here I've been arguing with a quant on the "trading the trend" thread that all the old rules underpinning his models (e.g AU following USA so if USA friday is green then AU monday should be) are out the window and he's completely against me.
> 
> Good dip to buy into though.




I sold out last Friday afternoon after the open dumped and had a bit of a recovery, at which point I exited. I had only just begun to buy back in over the last few weeks as I liquidated my portfolio in mid February.

This may turn out to be a W shaped recovery or perhaps the market will fall below the March lows and linger around those levels for a while.


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

Yeah this is how I got hosed last week with BA - a double digit swing in a single day is just absurd.

As I've said in the other thread though, most of the AU stuff actually has solid fundamentals so it's not the wipeout it appears to be.

As I said previously, buy into it.

USA is very different and heading for a 2nd wave (which despite the news carryon, AU isn't) and I've parked everything I have there in stay at home stocks - zoom, ebay, paypal, amazon, cisco. The only other stuff I'd touch with a bargepole would be intel/amd/nvidia. MAYBE microsoft.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah this is how I got hosed last week with BA - a double digit swing in a single day is just absurd.
> 
> As I've said in the other thread though, most of the AU stuff actually has solid fundamentals so it's not the wipeout it appears to be.
> 
> ...




I generally focus on the materials and energy sector; I have already selected the stocks that I will buy into, and just have to be patient for them to drop.

The 2nd wave in the USA and China will impact our markets.


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

Oh no doubt. But the fundamentals are ok here (in fact, china produces steel flat out even when there isn't a market for it and just dumps it in their storage yards. and then in their sports stadiums when the storage yards get full), unlike in the U.S.

A second wave in USA isn't going to effect australian domestic air travel much, for example.


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## waterbottle (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah this is how I got hosed last week with BA - a double digit swing in a single day is just absurd.
> 
> As I've said in the other thread though, most of the AU stuff actually has solid fundamentals so it's not the wipeout it appears to be.
> 
> ...





Interesting, why maybe msft?

You're probably the first poster I've read who didn't think MSFT was heading for above $200.

Personally I'm out of US markets altogether -way too volatile with 8%+ swings on airlines and financials. Then there's the risk of USD continuing to fall, which only takes away from any gains when adjusted for currency


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh no doubt. But the fundamentals are ok here (in fact, china produces steel flat out even when there isn't a market for it), unlike in the U.S.
> 
> A second wave in USA isn't going to effect australian domestic air travel much, for example.




At the moment I see fundamentals are good for tech stocks, okay for energy and materials, bad for banking and finance, and terrible for airlines and tourism. However fundamentals go out the window in times of market panic, as everything gets sold when extreme fear kicks in because people worry and they go straight into cash to protect themselves.

Also, a significant portion of shareholders are American investors that make up the top ASX companies.


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

waterbottle said:


> Interesting, why maybe msft?
> 
> You're probably the first poster I've read who didn't think MSFT was heading for above $200.
> 
> Personally I'm out of US markets altogether -way too volatile with 8%+ swings on airlines and financials. Then there's the risk of USD continuing to fall, which only takes away from any gains when adjusted for currency




You can see that microsoft has flatlined since early may. I'm not convinced that MS teams is going to lay waste to zoom in the same way that onedrive did with dropbox as zoom's so versatile and easy to use - you can use it on any platform on any device from anywhere - pc or mac, desktop or laptop, laptop or phone, android or iphone, so on and so forth. You can have private convo's, large scale public streams, or anything in between. It's encrypted for privacy if you pay for it and it's free to use unencrypted which gets the grassroots consumer hooked in the first place. You can talk to your family on your phone from the airport whilst they sit in their loungeroom or you can talk to your boss from desktop to desktop. No matter how you try to use it, it'll work. It's the AK-47 of video conferencing.

MS and steve ballmer's biggest failure imo is a lack of successful windows phone. If microsoft had a real competitor to the iphone that they could integrate with teams and teams' video conferencing, I'd be thinking very differently.

Slack however is the one that I think they ARE going to hose though as getting the chat, live editable documents etc all integrated with microsoft office would (will) result in ms teams being sooo much easier to use than having to pump everything through a 3rd party app like slack. You'll see its Q2 revenue was waaaaay off estimates and it just fell off a cliff after the 3rd of june. I'm not expecting much if any improvement tbh.

All this is not to say that I'm against microsoft, I just think there's going to be more of a bounce to be found elsewhere. MS would be the lower risk/lower return chunk of your risk appetite.

It's the massive spike in apple's price that would have me very very worried if I was holding it. MS, not so much.

BA I'm trading a small amount trying to pick the (ridiculous) volatility. The only spikes I see are the 737 max certification later this month and positive jobs data on the 3rd of july, which is now looking iffy. Other than that, I'm expecting a bloodbath.


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

Chronus-plutus: I'm in total agreeance with your analysis. The one wildcard you forget with banks is stimulus though - there's no way that, this time, the powers that be are going to do anything other than act waaaay early with a shitload of cash if any of the major banks even look jittery.

I'd say that retail is actually ok but it's more e-tail than retail. A lot of stuff is actually up on account of people buying things to do whilst they're stuck at home. The major difference is that *everything* is being ordered online now, hence ebay, paypal, amazon, being through the roof.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Chronus-plutus: I'm in total agreeance with your analysis. The one wildcard you forget with banks is stimulus though - there's no way that, this time, the powers that be are going to do anything other than act waaaay early with a shitload of cash if any of the major banks even look jittery.
> 
> I'd say that retail is actually ok but it's more e-tail than retail. A lot of stuff is actually up on account of people buying things to do whilst they're stuck at home. The major difference is that *everything* is being ordered online now, hence ebay, paypal, amazon, being through the roof.




Absolutely; look at Kogan, that's a winner right there.

True; the banks will not be allowed to fail by the government, however I see a tsunami of non-performing loans which will seriously impact bank performance.


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

Do you follow AU e-tail? I'm curious as to why the divergence between kogan & jb hifi. I would have thought they'd parallel each other?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Do you follow AU e-tail? I'm curious as to why the divergence between kogan & jb hifi. I would have thought they'd parallel each other?




I don't really; it is strange that Kogan is up ~80% over JB Hi-Fi.





The shares on issue are close for the stocks with JBH 114.88m and KGN 94.8m, with JBH's market cap around 4 times that of KGN's; JBH is carrying ~$1.1 billion in debt where as Kogan is just carrying a few million, JBH's debt isn't anything to worry about looking at their EBITDA ~$543.6 million. In saying this; the capital structure of KGN is much more favorable and less risky.

On the point of difference between the 2 entities:

- JB Hi-Fi's products are more appliance and technology based relative to Kogan; as such Kogan has a larger product range.
- Kogan sells their own product lines along with other brands.


So; with the minimal research I have done, *I can only put it down to the low number of shares on offer and a few big fish buying up the stock thinking it is the next Amazon*. Please forgive me if my numbers are wrong as I just used Yahoo Finance and the ASX; as I couldn't be bothered to log into my accounts. I haven't read through the annual reports, financial reports and announcements either.

I focus on materials and energy because it is such an exciting and adventurous sector for me. I enjoy reading and researching annual reports, financial statements, foreign news within this sector; that's why. Tech and retail is too boring me.


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## basilio (15 June 2020)

I'm wondering at the overall economic effect of the COVID 19 crisis on international money markets.

We have simultaneous  collapses of economic activity across the globe with consequent flows on for trade , debt repayments and solvency of many companies as well as governments. There are already countries  reneging on debts as a result of this pressure.  And we are only 3-4 months into the crisis. 

So how long can everyone keep dancing ?

And what happens when the music stops ?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/17/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 June 2020)

basilio said:


> I'm wondering at the overall economic effect of the COVID 19 crisis on international money markets.
> 
> We have simultaneous  collapses of economic activity across the globe with consequent flows on for trade , debt repayments and solvency of many companies as well as governments. There are already countries  reneging on debts as a result of this pressure.  And we are only 3-4 months into the crisis.
> 
> ...



I believe @wayneL has posted on this along the following lines. ( I cannot find the post ). 

The governments internationally are just printing more money basically. The idea I believe is to keep the share market up until employment returns and tax revenues improve. 

It seems odd. If it doesn't succeed we are headed for the mother of all busts where no asset will have any value, bar gold of course. 

Out there be monsters.

gg


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## basilio (15 June 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ).
> The governments internationally are just printing more money basically. The idea I believe is to keep the share market up until employment returns and tax revenues improve.
> gg



I'm sure this observation has crossed many minds. There is an excellent analysis on the ABC website which hammers home the point about totally unrealistic stock markets being inflated by trillions of dollars of government funds.

*The secret behind the booming stock market in the face of the coronavirus crisis*
Forget everything you've ever learned about the economy and the supposed link with financial markets.

Just three months into what the Bank of England describes as the deepest and sharpest downturn in centuries and stock markets are on a tear, galloping back towards record levels at breakneck speed.
Investors, many of them new converts to the cargo cult, are overlooking the hit to corporate earnings that has yet to play out, the potential housing market slump and spending blow from a lengthy period of elevated unemployment or the many geo-political risks building, particularly between China and the West.

Instead, they are pricing in a swift and almost perfect recovery based upon the presumption that maybe, just maybe, there'll be a vaccine that will suddenly rid the world of the pandemic that has created so much pain and hardship in such a brief space of time.

Or maybe, the whole thing is just an illusion.

*For when it comes to finance, free markets have become captive to central banks, which now are pouring trillions of dollars into the global economy each month to fabricate a recovery.*

It's cash that's being created out of thin air.

And a huge portion of it is being poured straight into stock markets regardless of what is happening out there in the real world.
www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/secret-behind-booming-stock-market-recession-coronavirus/12354308


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## qldfrog (15 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I don't really; it is strange that Kogan is up ~80% over JB Hi-Fi.
> 
> View attachment 104819
> 
> ...



Kogan is ecommerce, jbhifi a modern harvey norman selling mostly crap.look at their catalogue they have stores employees old model.never understood the share market fascination.
Obviously pushing a bit but that is my view.
Get a jbhifi  catalogue and read it, you will get my point
Overprice Chinese s..it, Kogan is just well priced Chinese s..it


----------



## basilio (15 June 2020)

This observation by Chronos-Plutus  from another thread deserves a closer look

_The reports out of China are a significant cluster has just come out of a Beijing seafood market and their government is adopting wartime measures to go into lockdown now: "Beijing is reintroducing strict lockdown measures and rolling out mass testing after a fresh cluster of novel coronavirus cases emerged from the city's largest wholesale food market, sparking fears of a resurgence of the deadly outbreak."(https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/coronavirus-beijing-outbreak-intl-hnk/index.html)
_
*If you check out the CNN story there is no doubt the Chinese government is taking this outbreak  deadly seriously.  *A few implications in my mind.

1)  The Chinese see COVID 19 as a deadly serious threat to their community and economy. They will do whatever it takes to isolate and contain the virus because in their experience the consequences of letting it rip are unacceptable.

2) If the Chinese view is realistic there is  absolutely no absolute room for complacency in staying on top of the situation. There seem to be  comments from the US which say "we're back in business" and "to hell with COVID 19". Essentially just live with it. We are seeing this philosophy in Brazil. We know many European countries are starting to reopen.  The question is whether any of these countries have the will and capacity to tackle serious new outbreaks ?

3) Is it possible we  are underestimating the impact of uncontrolled spread of COVID 19 ? In the context of this thread  what impact will that have on our economies?


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## over9k (15 June 2020)

Brazil is absolutely screwed. That entire country is going to get it. The deaths will be in the millions.

Half of europe is broke and the other half is flush so you'll have to be more specific RE: euro countries.

Yes, we're underestimating it massively. Again, think back to exponentials - a starting point of A with 5x the infection rate of B will spread much faster than 5x that of B.


It's market irrationality that has me worried - just look at the asx tanking today in response to an outbreak in china, even on things that really have nothing to do with china at all. Hence the volatility over the past couple of days just being absolutely nuts.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Brazil is absolutely screwed. That entire country is going to get it. The deaths will be in the millions.
> 
> Half of europe is broke and the other half is flush so you'll have to be more specific RE: euro countries.
> 
> ...



It's not looking good: Dow Futures are down ~2.19%, we might see another serious plunge this coming trading session.


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

@over9k: Brazil: death in the millions...Seriously?
Brazil population:210M so you mean 1 percent or more of the population dying?
If you take Italy:some of the oldest population in Europe:This is where the virus is at


If taking asymptomatic case, mortality rate is around 0.7%, 
among people tested and treated worst is 1.4% for older population(cruise ship: passengers..the young crew mostly ok)
, definitively a worst case scenario:
going worst case with known data , with 60% population affected (not realistic either) and ALL of them being symptomatic, we would get
210*0.6*0.014: so 1.7 Million...Can we agree that this will not happen?

Have you put money in shorts,  are you scared yourself, honestly why spreading these figures???
And if Brazil is so f***ed, our market should be on steroid with all the minerals Brazil will not produce, the AUD should go stellar
So let's go back to the bounce,


----------



## over9k (16 June 2020)

Brazil didn't contain the virus at all. Then factor in its healthcare (or lack thereof) and all those high density slums full of people living both right on top of each other and who are too poor not to work...

AU mining stocks ARE on steroids - look at FMG/RIO/BHP. The smart money figured out the obliteration of brazil weeks ago. I was actually late to the party.


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Brazil didn't contain the virus at all. Then factor in its healthcare (or lack thereof) and all those high density slums full of people living both right on top of each other and who are too poor not to work...
> 
> AU mining stocks ARE on steroids - look at FMG/RIO/BHP. The smart money figured out the obliteration of brazil weeks ago. I was actually late to the party.



My only problem is the exaggeration you post and you linking it to the market
No we will not see millions: aka more than 2m deaths from the virus in Brazil
So miners are booming because of virus ?
Do you see my point.anyway, if last night in US can not show you my point, nothing i can add.
We all agree on volatility induced
Being out of market is not silly and can be a good option.i am away travelling for a week and considering exiting my daily systems as i can not follow them properly while on the move and enjoy the trip.
Lifestyle choice, not economic one


----------



## sptrawler (16 June 2020)

Interesting article on the spending patterns during the virus outbreak.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...als-differently-to-women-20200614-p552he.html
Reflects what we have been saying, that only certain sectors of the economy have been hit badly. There are a couple of good charts in the article.
Must admit Australia has managed all this extremely well.
From the article:
_A spending tracker developed by AlphaBeta and illion, based on the behaviour of hundreds of thousands of consumers, shows discretionary spending had recovered to be just 1 per cent below the pre-pandemic norm in the first week of June, the strongest result since the onset of the crisis.

Dr Charlton said the spending surge by those receiving early super withdrawals has been an important contributor to the rapid improvement in discretionary purchases since late April.
Overall spending, including both essential and discretionary, was 2 per cent below the pre-coronavirus norm in the first week of May 31 - June 6_.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Lifestyle choice, not economic one



lucky you. I've been called for jury service... Lockup during lockdown, haha. 

A blessing really; to be on the sidelines.


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## over9k (16 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> My only problem is the exaggeration you post and you linking it to the market
> No we will not see millions: aka more than 2m deaths from the virus in Brazil
> So miners are booming because of virus ?
> Do you see my point.anyway, if last night in US can not show you my point, nothing i can add.
> ...




AU miners are booming precisely because of virus, yes. Again, this was figured out WEEKS ago in early may really. You're not thinking about brazil's terrible healthcare system and its slums - you couldn't think of a better hotbed of virus infection than a slum. 

You'll have to explain RE: U.S market last night.


----------



## over9k (16 June 2020)

So who else bought yesterday?


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> AU miners are booming precisely because of virus, yes. Again, this was figured out WEEKS ago in early may really. You're not thinking about brazil's terrible healthcare system and its slums - you couldn't think of a better hotbed of virus infection than a slum.
> 
> You'll have to explain RE: U.S market last night.



market up and strongly, by now ASX>+3%
not exactly small;
why?you know as well as I that the virus is out of the equation there ->Fed pushing up.
so now in a market forum, we deal with the market and act accordingly, I so suggest you look at the virus this way
Just PM me when we will reach 2m dead in Brazil.
And then if we do go anywhere that figure, what is the actual economic impact for us(Australia), the world or even Brazil in the next 12m?
You could even find some positive..So heartless but the thread is not about the best way to save life but the economy.
It is a wild ride, not for the faint heart and I understand not playing it, but not downplaying it.
Anyway, debate over for me.There is a lot of money to be made for those who want to unhook from the news.Stay safe


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> lucky you. I've been called for jury service... Lockup during lockdown, haha.
> 
> A blessing really; to be on the sidelines.



if it is time with the next crash, the jury duty will save you heaps


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## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

and one point, maybe explaining some of the differences with some posters, I am trading, NOT INVESTING


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## over9k (16 June 2020)

If the virus is out of the equation, why did usa tank last thursday after the spike in cases?

Brazil's boned. It's not even uncertain any more. Not being funny here, why do you think BHP/RIO/FMG have shot up to the points they have?


----------



## wayneL (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> If the virus is out of the equation, why did usa tank last thursday after the spike in cases?
> 
> Brazil's boned. It's not even uncertain any more. Not being funny here, why do you think BHP/RIO/FMG have shot up to the points they have?



Brazil is only boned if they partake in the stupid lockdowns. With CV death average age at around 80 or very slightly below average life expectancy, I see no reason why they would want to completely tank their economy.

Many of these  market reactions are visceral rather than data driven.


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

Oh, and i bought yesterday and making a tidy profit, again, today.
Anyway, to each his own, i believe the populace and super funds are getting creamed lately.


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## over9k (16 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Brazil is only boned if they partake in the stupid lockdowns. With CV death average age at around 80 or very slightly below average life expectancy, I see no reason why they would want to completely tank their economy.
> 
> Many of these  market reactions are visceral rather than data driven.



Ignore deaths etc completely: You think people can keep working when they have coronavirus? Or won't change their habits once it's rife in the population?


----------



## wayneL (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Ignore deaths etc completely: You think people can keep working when they have coronavirus? Or won't change their habits once it's rife in the population?



People should practice common sense and have a data driven rather than visceral response.

Shutting down and locking up causes other deaths and a lot more of them, should we ignore those?


----------



## over9k (16 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> People should practice common sense and have a data driven rather than visceral response.
> 
> Shutting down and locking up causes other deaths and a lot more of them, should we ignore those?



I'm not arguing goverment policy here, I'm arguing economic effects.

Either people are off work due to lockdowns or they are off work due to sickness (not to mention the medical costs of the sickness), and that's ignoring deaths completely.

It really is that simple, and as I've said in a couple of other threads, the smart money figured this out weeks ago.


----------



## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Ignore deaths etc completely: You think people can keep working when they have coronavirus? Or won't change their habits once it's rife in the population?



yes they do, open european news


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## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm not arguing goverment policy here, I'm arguing economic effects.
> 
> Either people are off work due to lockdowns or they are off work due to sickness (not to mention the medical costs of the sickness), and that's ignoring deaths completely.
> 
> It really is that simple, and as I've said in a couple of other threads, the smart money figured this out weeks ago.



smart money ...how is your super and the retail investors SMSF this year vs the goldman sach of this world...LOL


----------



## wayneL (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm not arguing goverment policy here, I'm arguing economic effects.
> 
> Either people are off work due to lockdowns or they are off work due to sickness (not to mention the medical costs of the sickness), and that's ignoring deaths completely.
> 
> It really is that simple, and as I've said in a couple of other threads, the smart money figured this out weeks ago.



Well sure. Invest according to your best information and view.

Irrespective of any situation in Brazil, iron ore, gold and copper are all trending up since the bottom in march.

So is the smart money looking at Brazil or looking at the price of these metals? 

Maybe both? Who knows. 

All I know is that I'm too dumb to know what smart money is doing and whether these trends are smart money or dumb money... or who the smart money even is.

I follow a few folks who I think are pretty smart... Some interesting perspective there.


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## over9k (16 June 2020)

Nah take a look at FMG, RIO and BHP - aside from one big dip, they were all flat early april-early/mid may and then took off. Iron ore took off late april/early may. 

Also worth thinking about what made iron ore take off - precisely because of a realisation of a future collapse in brazilian supply perhaps?


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## wayneL (16 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Nah take a look at FMG, RIO and BHP - aside from one big dip, they were all flat early april-early/mid may and then took off. Iron ore took off late april/early may.
> 
> Also worth thinking about what made iron ore take off - precisely because of a realisation of a future collapse in brazilian supply perhaps?



Perhaps.

You puts your money down and you takes yer chance, hey.


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## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

deleted


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## qldfrog (16 June 2020)

a few days ago, I was mentioning the non realistic vaccine options, with basically placebo effect but useful to unlock the economy, read that: we are there:in less than a week, I could play a famed local poster and be a Canberra minister adviser 
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...fection-with-coronavirus-20200616-p552yy.html
by the time "vaccine" is released it will be 99pc effective..like salted water...vaccinated but can get sick, mostly benign but for a few exceptions where it will sadly not work...
ultimate results-> a placebo
It will nevertheless be important : allow a pretext to release the economy and win the next election: thanks God we were there and helped develop that "vaccine" will say Paluchet...


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## basilio (17 June 2020)

The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.

 It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures


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## SirRumpole (17 June 2020)

basilio said:


> The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.
> 
> It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures




At least they appear to be telling the world what is happening and not trying to cover up the severity.


----------



## spooly74 (17 June 2020)

basilio said:


> The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.
> 
> It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures




I guess we can expect to see more mass outdoor sterilisation & citizens convulsing and dropping dead in the streets again.


----------



## basilio (17 June 2020)

spooly74 said:


> I guess we can expect to see more mass outdoor sterilisation & citizens convulsing and dropping dead in the streets again.



Hopefully not and hopefully not  with a direct connection between the sterilisation and the convulsing and dropping dead.

Clearly China wants to stop this outbreak before it becomes as disastrous as the Wuhan experience.


----------



## basilio (17 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> At least they appear to be telling the world what is happening and not trying to cover up the severity.




Interesting to compare this approach with Trump  saying that the US  they would have far fewer COVID infections if they just stopped testing people. 
And tehn deciding to have a mass political rally to promote himself in a State that is seeing steep increases in COVID infections.  
And of course anyone who comes to the rally has to sign away any right to sue if they fall sick. 
Naturally..


----------



## SirRumpole (17 June 2020)

basilio said:


> Interesting to compare this approach with Trump saying that the US they would have far fewer COVID infections if they just stopped testing people.




I couldn't believe he actually said that, but he did...

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...ight-now-have-very-few-cases-2020-6?r=US&IR=T


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

basilio said:


> The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.
> 
> It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures



Yeah it was a reeeeally choppy day.

U.S didn't care about chinese virus cases over the weekend like AU did though - AU tanked on monday, U.S didn't.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Nah take a look at FMG, RIO and BHP - aside from one big dip, they were all flat early april-early/mid may and then took off. Iron ore took off late april/early may.
> 
> Also worth thinking about what made iron ore take off - precisely because of a realisation of a future collapse in brazilian supply perhaps?




The play for me is gold and silver developing and/or producing stocks. This is where I want to be for the next decade. At the moment I only hold 2 stocks; one an explorer in Peru, and the other a developer in Myanmar that will mine one of the world's largest silver mines with about ~30% silver leverage to their revenue based on the PFS.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah it was a reeeeally choppy day.
> 
> U.S didn't care about chinese virus cases over the weekend like AU did though - AU tanked on monday, U.S didn't.




It was the FED, as usual, that stepped in to calm the markets with their announcements. The FED will never be able to raise rates now, and I mean absolutely never. They are completely backed into a corner of currency debasement, in perpetuity, so long as the FED is a functioning institution.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> People should practice common sense and have a data driven rather than visceral response.




Problem is, what is the correct response?

It's not the one the USA has taken for example so strike that off the list.


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It was the FED, as usual, that stepped in to calm the markets with their announcements. The FED will never be able to raise rates now, and I mean absolutely never. They are completely backed into a corner of currency debasement, in perpetuity, so long as the FED is a functioning institution.



The thing is that with the USD being the world's trading/reserve currency, it doesn't even really debase it. The fact that it's the trading/reserve currency is precisely why they're able to get away with abusing it like they do. 

And when you consider the upside down demographic nightmares that the rest of the world has, money's going to continue to flow into the U.S for decades yet on account of the rest of the world being an even worse option. 

The 30 year bond rate is as low as it is for a reason.


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

Oh and it might be worth taking a crack at some gold miners - I made some tidy return in the GFC buying a couple of penny stock gold miners. Currently I hold DEG & MGV, will probably buy SLR again too as it's in a nice dip at the moment. If you run the graph out to max, you'll see how that yielded a 10-20 fold return if you bought around the gfc era & sold in the wake of it.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> The thing is that with the USD being the world's trading/reserve currency, it doesn't even really debase it. The fact that it's the trading/reserve currency is precisely why they're able to get away with abusing it like they do.
> 
> And when you consider the upside down demographic nightmares that the rest of the world has, money's going to continue to flow into the U.S for decades yet on account of the rest of the world being an even worse option.
> 
> The 30 year bond rate is as low as it is for a reason.




Don't get me wrong, I actually support the USA here; however there is a major decoupling of economic and military power taking place. The USA have the most powerful military force this world has ever seen, yet the economic might of the USA is waning. As the economic might wanes, so does the currency.

We are talking about a multi-decade play, not a couple of years. That is why a portion of my assets are allocated to physical precious metal bullion, as I am only in my mid 30s.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh and it might be worth taking a crack at some gold miners - I made some tidy return in the GFC buying a couple of penny stock gold miners. Currently I hold DEG & MGV, will probably buy SLR again too as it's in a nice dip at the moment. If you run the graph out to max, you'll see how that yielded a 10-20 fold return if you bought around the gfc era & sold in the wake of it.



When did you get into DEG?

A decent pullback in the gold and silver miners looks to be on the cards. That will be the time to enter.


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

Chronus - nah not correct. I actually used to think this myself. Do yourself a favour and watch this video: 

And then this one:



And then this one:



It's a half day of time, but it'll blow your freaking mind.

Also, I'm in my 30's too, but I'm one of those guys that's been trading since his teens. I kind of had no choice but to run penny stocks all those years ago!


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Chronus - nah not correct. I actually used to think this myself. Do yourself a favour and watch this video:
> 
> And then this one:
> 
> ...






What's not correct buddy?

Don't just flick a few videos and tell me to watch them.


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

American economic power waning. Almost the entire rest of the planet (certainly all of the first world aside from AU & NZ) has upside down population pyramids - america's the only one even close to positive at roughly chimney shaped.

America has also been securing global trade since the end of ww2 and it's basically just no longer bothering because it's now oil independent and self reliant for absolutely everything, so the whole planet can burn and they won't even notice, hence no longer securing all the trade.

Not being funny/patronising here - watch the videos.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> American economic power waning. Almost the entire rest of the planet (certainly all of the first world aside from AU & NZ) has upside down population pyramids - america's the only one even close to positive at roughly chimney shaped.
> 
> America has also been securing global trade since the end of ww2 and it's basically just no longer bothering because it's now oil independent and self reliant for absolutely everything, so the whole planet can burn and they won't even notice, hence no longer securing all the trade.
> 
> Not being funny/patronising here - watch the videos.




Patronising?

I wasn't thinking that at all.

I am happy to make a bet with you then. I will bet you 1 Perth Mint silver cast bar, that in 10 years, the USA will no longer be the largest economy in the world. Payment will be due in precisely 10 years from today.

Just post it to a dedicated PO BOX. Deal?


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

Sure. Or the equivalent in ETF. What size are we talking? You set on 10 years or do you want to bring the time horizon forward a bit?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> The play for me is gold and silver developing and/or producing stocks. This is where I want to be for the next decade. At the moment I only hold 2 stocks; one an explorer in Peru, and the other a developer in Myanmar that will mine one of the world's largest silver mines with about ~30% silver leverage to their revenue based on the PFS.



Not MYL I hope.

gg


----------



## waterbottle (17 June 2020)

Lots of people were pushing gold and silver during the GFC, people bought in expecting price rises to 3-10k USD. That never happened.
All the while they kept trying to reassure themselves that they were correct as, in their minds, the society was enslaved to the markets - as if the markets were deities that made their own unbreakable rules.
Then reality hit.
Markets are enslaved to society. Humans decide how and why markets behave for the betterment of other humans.


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## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Sure. Or the equivalent in ETF. What size are we talking? You set on 10 years or do you want to bring the time horizon forward a bit?




Excellent.

I would like to settle on physical silver 1kg Perth Mint cast bar; no ETF or transfer of securities. I am happy with the 10 year time horizon.

The only thing we need to agree on now is which entity will have the say on the US economic standing relative to the rest of the world.

Would you like the IMF, World Bank, or UN?

Will all of these entities have to have the USA as being dethroned, or just a majority, or just 1?

Also we are taking nominal GDP right? Not GDP PPP, because China are already ahead.


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

I say we go with majority verdict 2/3. Nominal gdp.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I say we go with majority verdict 2/3. Nominal gdp.




I am happy to take all three or lose on this bet. That way there will be no push or stand-off.


----------



## over9k (17 June 2020)

Ok - we'll keep chatting about it in the other thread as it seems more related to the title.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (17 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok - we'll keep chatting about it in the other thread as it seems more related to the title.




Yeah, our bet is locked in now and we can let that stay on the other thread.

However, the virus is showing no signs of abating:



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


----------



## sptrawler (17 June 2020)

basilio said:


> The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.
> 
> It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures



As long as it doesn't have a higher mortality rate.


----------



## basilio (18 June 2020)

sptrawler said:


> As long as it doesn't have a higher mortality rate.



Too early to tell yet.
In any case  I think the new evidence that at least some  people who fall severely ill with COVID 19 but  eventually recover still have severe health problems.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 June 2020)

This is worth watching in my view, especially given it's from someone who knows what they're on about with economics and markets.

In short - he's saying it's not over, there's a lot of economic pain to come, and he's urging that Australia make much broader economic reform since what worked in the past isn't coming back anytime soon.


----------



## sptrawler (18 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> This is worth watching in my view, especially given it's from someone who knows what they're on about with economics and markets.
> 
> In short - he's saying it's not over, there's a lot of economic pain to come, and he's urging that Australia make much broader economic reform since what worked in the past isn't coming back anytime soon.



One comment I will make smurf, on the weekend I was talking to the owner of a large popular coffee shop and asked him when he will be fully opening the food side.
He said September when jobkeeper stops, the chef doesn't want to start yet.


----------



## greggles (18 June 2020)

COVID-19 may be under control in Australia and New Zealand but it's pretty clear from the statistics that it is not under control globally.

New daily infections hit 142,557 on 16 June, which appears to be close to double the amount of daily infections during April. This pandemic is far from over yet global markets do not appear to be reflecting that.

If I was a betting man, I would have my money on further catastrophic falls on global markets, similar to what we saw back in March, at some point in the next couple of months. I just don't think that the full longer term economic effects of this pandemic are being appreciated by those who have been jumping into the market in the last month.

2020 is going to be a very memorable year for global financial markets, but not in a good way.


----------



## IFocus (18 June 2020)

greggles said:


> COVID-19 may be under control in Australia and New Zealand but it's pretty clear from the statistics that it is not under control globally.
> 
> New daily infections hit 142,557 on 16 June, which appears to be close to double the amount of daily infections during April. This pandemic is far from over yet global markets do not appear to be reflecting that.
> 
> ...




I am standing aside at the moment due to the conflict I find myself in.

! was in the next leg down camp but unfortunately so was everyone else so that was never going to come soon.

Market is rising strongly against the dire economic back ground for as far as can be reasonably be projected.

Central banks / governments action seem to be skewing fundamentals.

Still a reasonable amount of uncertainty regarding the virus.

The daily range is still quite high

What happens with all the debt?

US election year where is that going?

Hmmmm


----------



## wayneL (18 June 2020)

IFocus said:


> US election year where is that going?
> 
> Hmmmm



This skews everything until Nov 8

I've got a few things I'm trying to wind up and hope I can get it done before then.


----------



## sptrawler (18 June 2020)

IFocus said:


> I am standing aside at the moment due to the conflict I find myself in.
> 
> ! was in the next leg down camp but unfortunately so was everyone else so that was never going to come soon.
> 
> ...



I'm with you and think the next 6 months will be interesting, I'm definitely thinking of lightening up before the reporting season, the debt thing doesn't worry me too much with fiat it is only numbers on the Gov spreadsheet.


----------



## sptrawler (18 June 2020)

Another winner in the corona virus saga.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...ent-on-lockdown-spending-20200618-p553rn.html


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 June 2020)

Looking more like an upside breakout in COVID-19 in the US.

12 June - a higher high occurred.

14 - June - higher bottom than the previous bottom.

18 June - higher high than the 12 June high.

It's not a huge trend but on a chart it looks like we've made the lows and now turning up. 7 Day moving average bottomed on 9 June. 

Data from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


----------



## sptrawler (19 June 2020)

I personally am hoping for another surge, to lighten some of the positions taken in March, I'm kicking myself for not lightening up when we surged past 6,000 on the asx.
Left $20k on the table with VUK, I looked at the charts and said sell, the little green monster on my shoulder said "one more day". F$#k
I have to go and re read Skate's 'dump it here' thread.


----------



## over9k (20 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking more like an upside breakout in COVID-19 in the US.
> 
> 12 June - a higher high occurred.
> 
> ...



I've been saying that they're going to see a 2nd wave for weeks now. If you don't have the jitters, you should. 

I've torched all my non tech & etail positions. I hold ebay, amazon, paypal, zoom, skyworks, cisco, nvidia, docusign, zscaler, crowdstrike, and now a little bit of microsoft. I'm still on the fence about slack. 

I'll be getting into pfizer as a long position eventually but that still has plenty of melt to go. Same with industrials like boeing & GE. Thor & winnebago are a nice bounce but I can see them in trouble once the virus data gets really bad and the old farts start changing their behaviour. 

Lots of chop yet until the mask factories come online in august.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (20 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I've been saying that they're going to see a 2nd wave for weeks now. If you don't have the jitters, you should.
> 
> I've torched all my non tech & etail positions. I hold ebay, amazon, paypal, zoom, skyworks, cisco, nvidia, docusign, zscaler, crowdstrike, and now a little bit of microsoft. I'm still on the fence about slack.
> 
> ...




Massive virus spike in cases across the US Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and California.


----------



## over9k (20 June 2020)

Yeeeep. It's my AU holdings I'm jittery about - AU is not going to get a 2nd wave anything like USA (and several other countries) so I still have positions in AIA, DEG, KGN, MGV, QAN, STO, WEB, but I sold off FLT, SYD, & ORG last week as poor performers and nuked all my positions in FMG, RIO & BHP due to an anticipation of serious drops in response to infection rate spikes, particularly once more bad data comes out of china.

I plan on pumping everything from my sold positions into/back into the big three miners once I think the next dip we are now undeniably going to see has levelled out. Since selling, so far, there's been nothing but red (except for FLT) for what I held so I'm cautiously optimistic that I got my timing right, which is everything in a market this ridiculously volatile. 

There's been lots of ugly virus data out this weekend already and there's another day to go yet.


----------



## basilio (20 June 2020)

*First AFL player to return a positive COVID result today.  *Essendon's Coner Mckenna showed a postive result from a Friday test 
The game against Melbourne on Sunday has been postponed (to when ??). All Essendon players are in iso for 48 hours .  Essendon needs to see if any of the other players officials and  associated families have been infected.

It has already had an impact on this weekends games.  The  ongoing risk is that the 2020 season which is already compromised could be broken if teams cannot compete.

The financial impact on the AFL and Seven Media and the clubs  would be ........
https://www.afl.com.au/video/455319...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1592643764001


----------



## qldfrog (20 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Massive virus spike in cases across the US Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and California.



Honestly, the only figure s of importance are number of admissions in hospital and number of deaths, the rest is self scare
Does anyone believe we can control this anymore?
so smooth the curve, we need a minimum of 60pc contamination to stop propagation assuming immunity is acquired
The more the better/ shorter.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Massive virus spike in cases across the US Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and California.


----------



## over9k (20 June 2020)

Yep - and these are the ones full of retirees too, so expect winnebago & thor to be a bloodbath on monday.


----------



## MrChow (20 June 2020)

My reading based on current U.S strategy is they are willing to have and tracking for 500k-1m deaths on a mimimal disruption strategy in order to save the economy.

So if a NYC happens in Texas or Florida or California and there's little national response it's not a bluff it was always plan A to take the hit on health and win the election on the economy.


----------



## jbocker (20 June 2020)

[QUOTE="basilio, post: 1078178, member:]... All Essendon players are in iso for 48 hours  ... [/QUOTE]
Why 48 hours, shouldn't it be 2 weeks?? Wipe them from the competition for 2020 and put the rest of the Vic teams on notice.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Honestly, the only figure s of importance are number of admissions in hospital and number of deaths



In my view if someone’s permanently harmed and never makes a full recovery then that’s also rather serious.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Does anyone believe we can control this anymore?



In Australia I’m not convinced that it can’t be done so long as we can maintain a sensible approach.

A particular threat is that, well, we have a % of the population that can’t even complete a course of antibiotics once the symptoms diminish and we have others who are against vaccination and science generally.

I see no reason why such people should be allowed to endanger others.

For those who’ve gone out in public knowing they were infected, have failed to observe required quarantine or who’ve attended illegal mass gatherings they owe everyone else big time. If they aren’t heavily punished then something’s very wrong there.


----------



## qldfrog (21 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In Australia I’m not convinced that it can’t be done so long as we can maintain a sensible approach.
> 
> A particular threat is that, well, we have a % of the population that can’t even complete a course of antibiotics once the symptoms diminish and we have others who are against vaccination and science generally.
> 
> ...



I agree yes we could in Australia and then?
Even if vaccination was working and available, from Asia to Africa to Latin America, the virus is out and will stay with us.we are still having tuberculosis after decades and decades of both working vaccines and treatments
Facts:

A total of 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018 (including 251 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS).
In 2018, an estimated 10 million people fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide. 5.7 million men, 3.2 million women and 1.1 million children. There were cases in all countries and age groups. But TB is curable and preventable


So 10pc mortality rates if using same criteria as used for covid19
Aka death per detected sick person
Covid19 is sxxit but the reaction is disproportionate now that we have figures.any death is a death too much but do we agree that more than 1pc of smokers die from smoking?
If so smoking is order of magnitude worse for health than covid-19
@Smurf1976  i trust you trust facts and numbers, we share that.
As is, right now, there is no justification to destroying our economy and having collateral deaths for that pretext.
Unless this is just that a pretext....something to blame for the fuckups accumulated since the GFC.
Anyway will not enter in fruitless debate.facts numbers have long lost any meaning as BLM has proven again..just most recent example 
Mitigate wear masks etc


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Honestly, the only figure s of importance are number of admissions in hospital and number of deaths, the rest is self scare
> Does anyone believe we can control this anymore?
> so smooth the curve, we need a minimum of 60pc contamination to stop propagation assuming immunity is acquired
> The more the better/ shorter.



We will still need to address the 10s of trillions of global stimulus that governments and Central Banks have pumped into the system, which has artificially pumped up the markets. How does the FED unwind their balance sheet now without inducing a financial apocalypse? The FED is also still holding all the toxic assets from the last GFC.


----------



## over9k (21 June 2020)

Being USD, they can literally just print it.

People really underestimate just how much the USD can be abused on account of its global trade/reserve currency status. There is no other currency with which you can do this. It is _unique. _

Factor in demographics resulting in there soon being no good options left for money to run to, and the USD being far & away the best of all these bad options, and you have a massive flood of credit into the USA as well. Expect 0% interest rates for the USA for quite a while yet. This credit flood had actually already begun long before coronavirus hit.









USA, AU, NZ will soon be the only non "post-growth" economies left. Maybe india too.


----------



## basilio (21 June 2020)

jbocker said:


> [QUOTE="basilio, post: 1078178, member:]... All Essendon players are in iso for 48 hours  ...



Why 48 hours, shouldn't it be 2 weeks?? Wipe them from the competition for 2020 and put the rest of the Vic teams on notice.[/QUOTE]

Officicals will be going through training tapes and identifying players who spent significant periods of times with Coner McKenna.  These players face 14 days isolation. One of the consequences for Essendon would be playing the next two matchs  with a depleted squad.  

Could be a very character building couple of weeks for the club.

The AFL couldn't wipe Essendon out for the season. It would trash an already severely compromised  fixture  and more crucially the TV rights.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/455889/-the-rules-are-pretty-clear-dons-could-play-with-bare-minimum


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Being USD, they can literally just print it.
> 
> People really underestimate just how much the USD can be abused on account of its global trade/reserve currency status. There is no other currency with which you can do this. It is _unique. _
> 
> ...




I also like to look at China's FDI into other global regions. Africa is interesting: "According to the 2018 UNCTAD World Investment Report, China held the fourth largest FDI stock in Africa in 2016 at $40 billion, behind the US at $57 billion, the UK at $55 billion, and France at $49 billion. If including Hong Kong, China’s investment stock in Africa rises to $53 billion. This is a dramatic improvement from 2011, when China’s investment stock in Africa was only $16 billion, placing it at the same level as Singapore and India." (https://chinapower.csis.org/china-foreign-direct-investment/)

Little doubt that China will hold the largest FDI stock in Africa within the next decade; considering that their FDI stock held is ~2.5 times greater in just 5 years, and if their FDI trajectory is maintained.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Being USD, they can literally just print it.
> 
> People really underestimate just how much the USD can be abused on account of its global trade/reserve currency status. There is no other currency with which you can do this. It is _unique. _
> 
> ...




Reserve currency status isn't eternal.

 There is talk that there will be an IMF SDR (basket of currencies), including ~5% gold, to replace the US reserve currency in time.


----------



## over9k (21 June 2020)

Sure but the U.S bretton-woods system is all encompassing. It's orders of magnitude greater than the empires of old. Then factor in demographics meaning the U.S is the only consumer economy left, america's overwhelming military might... 

No shortage of actors have been trying to replace the USD for quite some time. Be it individual countries, the euro, whoever. None of them have ever even stood a chance. 

I really wish you'd watch the videos I linked the other day :/


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Sure but the U.S bretton-woods system is all encompassing. It's orders of magnitude greater than the empires of old. Then factor in demographics meaning the U.S is the only consumer economy left, america's overwhelming military might...
> 
> No shortage of actors have been trying to replace the USD for quite some time. Be it individual countries, the euro, whoever. None of them have ever even stood a chance.
> 
> I really wish you'd watch the videos I linked the other day :/




Here is the history of reserve currencies:



(https://philosophyofmetrics.com/history-of-world-reserve-currencies/)

The US Dollar will fail, just like the rest of them. I am not against the US, I am just a realist.

If anything, I am a monarchist; God Save The Queen.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Reserve currency status isn't eternal.
> 
> There is talk that there will be an IMF SDR (basket of currencies), including ~5% gold, to replace the US reserve currency in time.



CP. 
You took out that historical graph. Tant pis.

I've been thinking about *mercantilism*
/ˈməːk(ə)ntəˌlɪz(ə)m,məːˈkantɪlɪz(ə)m/

_noun_

belief in the benefits of profitable trading.
HISTORICAL
the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> CP.
> You took out that historical graph. Tant pis.
> 
> I've been thinking about *mercantilism*
> ...




I posted the historical graph again.

Trade balance has always been central to economic prosperity. Running continuous and unsustainable trade deficits is a path to economic destruction.

To validate my statement above; we would need to carry out a historical analysis of all the economic powers before the USA, who held reserve currency status, focusing on their trade balance to see if it was a major element of their demise.


----------



## over9k (21 June 2020)

Nah no way, USD isn't going anywhere.




This graph is a similiar story basically everywhere - china, japan, wherever.



I've linked this from the most important point to watch from - you need only watch for ten mins to get an idea of why the world is going to continue using the USD for a long time yet.

However, I urge everyone to watch the following video in its entirety: 

Of particular relevance to this discussion is from 21.00 onwards. With the USD accounting for about 95% of global trade and the other measly 5% really just being the euro, combine this with the united states soon being the only consumer market left and you have a world in which the USD isn't going anywhere.




The united states is also one of the least trading economies in the world as a percentage of GDP - but its trade security was never set up for its interests, it was set up to fight the cold war. Any trade benefits were just a bonus.

What I keep trying to say here is that the normal rules of macroeconomics, trade etc do not apply to america. I used to think the exact same way as you guys before this was all explained to me.

PLEASE watch the videos I linked.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Nah no way, USD isn't going anywhere.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





The USA was set-up on the ideals of the American Founding Fathers.

I am not sure why you believe that the USD reserve currency status is eternal? Currencies rise and fall, it is the nature of economics; such a statement is akin to believing that the economic boom and bust cycle can be avoided.

The best thing that the USA can do is to prepare for the inevitable demise of its currency, not stick their head in the sand.

It is world trade that keeps the power of the USD's reserve status. When the world stops trading in USD, it will lose its value.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Covid19 is sxxit but the reaction is disproportionate now that we have figures.any death is a death too much but do we agree that more than 1pc of smokers die from smoking?
> If so smoking is order of magnitude worse for health than covid-19
> @Smurf1976 i trust you trust facts and numbers, we share that.
> As is, right now, there is no justification to destroying our economy and having collateral deaths for that pretext.
> Unless this is just that a pretext....something to blame for the fuckups accumulated since the GFC.




My understanding is that smoking kills ~50% of regular smokers and brings about misery and suffering to about half the rest. So a 75% chance that it stuffs you - no prizes for guessing I don't smoke (well, I'll likely emit smoke if I'm set on fire but that's not a routine occurrence thankfully). 

That said, well I can choose to not smoke and thus avoid the serious hazards caused by it. It seems somewhat harder to avoid the risks of COVID-19 if it becomes widespread in the community. If it turned people bright green or something then that would make identification and avoidance far easier but unfortunately it doesn't do that.

I think part of the trouble here is that verified facts seem rather hard to make sense of. Eg Australia has a death rate of just under 1.5% versus over 11% in the US.

Assuming it's the same virus, then either the US health system truly is an absolute basket case or something's going on here?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (21 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> My understanding is that smoking kills ~50% of regular smokers and brings about misery and suffering to about half the rest. So a 75% chance that it stuffs you - no prizes for guessing I don't smoke (well, I'll likely emit smoke if I'm set on fire but that's not a routine occurrence thankfully).
> 
> That said, well I can choose to not smoke and thus avoid the serious hazards caused by it. It seems somewhat harder to avoid the risks of COVID-19 if it becomes widespread in the community. If it turned people bright green or something then that would make identification and avoidance far easier but unfortunately it doesn't do that.
> 
> ...




The medical evidence suggests so on the smoking and alcohol; however Winston Churchill smoked cigars and drank spirits everyday of his life.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking more like an upside breakout in COVID-19 in the US.




19 June = 33,539 new cases in the US.

That's the highest since 1 May and the 8th highest day since the whole pandemic started, the highest being 39,072 on 24 April.

How the markets respond I don't know. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


----------



## wayneL (22 June 2020)

Re reserve status of USD. 

I may be wrong but the US cemented it's status via the importance of oil and some strategic alliances (the Saudis primarily), vis a vis the petrodollar.

Cryptos may have changed everything however (plus the US's declining influence). Having failed to stymie bitcoin etc, the word is that CBs are desperate to climb onto that bandwagon... not bitcoin itself, but their own electronic currency whether or not on blockchain.

Reserve currencies tend to change because of conflict... war.  Let's hope that first happen.

Disclaimer: these are basically fag ends I've managed to pick up following the macro folks, and may be way off... but does seem to tie in with CP's view.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Re reserve status of USD.
> 
> I may be wrong but the US cemented it's status via the importance of oil and some strategic alliances (the Saudis primarily), vis a vis the petrodollar.
> 
> ...




War is certainly a major constant element to consider when looking at the change in reserve currency; however, I think there is more to look at like the trajectory of GDP, government debt, international trade deficits etc.

I think an in-depth look at the Dutch Golden Age and its demise is worthwhile here. Was the Dutch economy running huge trade deficits by the late 17th/early18th century?


----------



## over9k (22 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> The USA was set-up on the ideals of the American Founding Fathers.
> 
> I am not sure why you believe that the USD reserve currency status is eternal? Currencies rise and fall, it is the nature of economics; such a statement is akin to believing that the economic boom and bust cycle can be avoided.
> 
> ...



Yes and the world is *not* going to stop trading in USD. No if's, no but's, it isn't.

Please watch the videos.


wayne - it was the fact that USA was the only thing left after ww2 aside from soviets and the imposition of the bretton-woods system combined with the USD being backed by gold.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Yes and the world is *not* going to stop trading in USD. No if's, no but's, it isn't.
> 
> Please watch the videos.
> 
> ...




There is a clear trajectory of USD reserve currency decline, noting a CNY and JPY reserve currency increase over the last few years. The USD reserve currency abandonment will take many decades, but the trajectory is obvious looking at the IMF data:


----------



## wayneL (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Please watch the videos.
> 
> wayne - it was the fact that USA was the only thing left after ww2 aside from soviets and the imposition of the bretton-woods system combined with the USD being backed by gold.



I watched them. Great and interesting perspective, thanks.

In fairness, the macro dudes I've been listening to think the possibilities lie in a US centric "digital dollar"... Crypto electro dollar, or some such system, rather some foreign currency.


----------



## moXJO (22 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> I watched them. Great and interesting perspective, thanks.
> 
> In fairness, the macro dudes I've been listening to think the possibilities lie in a US centric "digital dollar"... Crypto electro dollar, or some such system, rather some foreign currency.



China was creating one apparently. They have a long term goal in mind of taking out the US.


----------



## sptrawler (22 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> I watched them. Great and interesting perspective, thanks.
> 
> In fairness, the macro dudes I've been listening to think the possibilities lie in a US centric "digital dollar"... Crypto electro dollar, or some such system, rather some foreign currency.



To be able to draw a genuine relativity between currencies and the underlying gdp supporting it, I would have thought it would in some way require a constant to a common currency, thsi is the problem with China not floating their currency.
So being no expert on the subject, I would have thought China will refuse to have the U.S dollar as the constant due to the abuse it has received.
Therefore to have a constant that all currencies agree to use as a base line, would require a neutral currency, which bring us back to a universal crypto currency maybe?
This would also enable the massive debt to be washed, in a transition, just a thought.


----------



## over9k (22 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> There is a clear trajectory of USD reserve currency decline, noting a CNY and JPY reserve currency increase over the last few years. The USD reserve currency abandonment will take many decades, but the trajectory is obvious looking at the IMF data:
> 
> View attachment 105084




This is going to change. There is a reason why so much cash is flowing into the USA now. The past few decades have not been "normal", historically speaking, and they are coming to a close. 

Please watch the videos. 



moXJO said:


> China was creating one apparently. They have a long term goal in mind of taking out the US.




Literally zero chance of this happening. Again, watching the videos I linked will explain why.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> This is going to change. There is a reason why so much cash is flowing into the USA now. The past few decades have not been "normal", historically speaking, and they are coming to a close.
> 
> Please watch the videos.
> 
> ...





OK I watched the videos. Peter is a good geopolitical strategist but his perspectives are clearly biased towards the USA.

I found it strange that the nation of Turkey were designated as a rising star on his World Stability Map; the nation is clearly far from stable, also Turkey are about to go to war with Egypt over Libya.


----------



## over9k (22 June 2020)

What bias or "unobjectivity" are you referencing specifically?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> What bias or "unobjectivity" are you referencing specifically?




I don't really have time to critique his entire presentation; however the general feeling was that the USA will wipe the floor with the British on a trade deal, that the USA don't need the Canadians anymore.

Making these types of off-the-cuff remarks actually works against the USA.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> What bias or "unobjectivity" are you referencing specifically?




Then there is the comments that there is going to be a massive global brain drain and everyone is going to want to flock to the USA; example of German engineer being paid peanuts just to live in the USA.

It is slightly fantastical; however I did enjoy the watching it though.


----------



## over9k (22 June 2020)

Surely the U.S being the only significant consumer market left lends a tremendous amount of weight to the whole "everyone want access to our markets so we can bend them over the proverbial in exchange for it" argument?

Same goes with industry moving to USA to access said market and therefore that is where the jobs will be?


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Surely the U.S being the only significant consumer market left




The EU is a pretty big consumer then there's China, India and if we look at other countries like Japan, UK etc then collectively it's a big number.

Taking oil consumption as one measure, well 80% of it's not in the US (or 87% depending on which of the US Government's conflicting data is assumed to be correct - they state production at 13 million barrels per day, consumption at 20 million, and that they're self-sufficient. Um......).


----------



## over9k (22 June 2020)

EU's demographic pyramid is upside down, as is china's, the UK's and japan's. India's a big country but wealthy it is not.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Surely the U.S being the only significant consumer market left lends a tremendous amount of weight to the whole "everyone want access to our markets so we can bend them over the proverbial in exchange for it" argument?
> 
> Same goes with industry moving to USA to access said market and therefore that is where the jobs will be?




What I see as a major possibility is that there will be a Commonwealth revival with the UK reestablishing its strong historical ties with Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Australia is a great place for UK investment; we are a stable and friendly nation that is strategically and geographically well positioned to gain access into the high-growth Asian markets.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

But asia's upside down as well? 

Not to mention the necessity of trade security, which if you believe zeihan, is soon going to vanish. Remember back in december when the first shots were fired in the gulf and 8% of the world's oil supply was taken out in one strike?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> But asia's upside down as well?
> 
> Not to mention the necessity of trade security, which if you believe zeihan, is soon going to vanish. Remember back in december when the first shots were fired in the gulf and 8% of the world's oil supply was taken out in one strike?




The UK is unshackling itself from the EU. London has essentially been the world's financial centre for centuries. The Commonwealth revival should see massive UK FDI into Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Australia and New Zealand are the springboard into Asia and Canada into the Americas.

The Empire Strikes Back old sport!


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

Interesting thesis, but a lot of the asian market is soon about to vanish.

I can see the canada-usa connection though. As for how much that benefits britain is another matter however.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Interesting thesis, but a lot of the asian market is soon about to vanish.
> 
> I can see the canada-usa connection though.




It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The potential is enormous with UK FDI in Australia: for example; we can build and establish an ethanol industry in FNQ and supply the UK directly with ethanol to power their economy. 

Not sure why you think the Asian market is going to vanish; ASEAN are a huge consumer market with significant growth.

Hong Kong is in trouble, which will see massive capital and business flight to Singapore; perhaps Sydney and Tokyo will benefit somewhat, but Singapore is going to be the main beneficiary.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> EU's demographic pyramid is upside down, as is china's, the UK's and japan's. India's a big country but wealthy it is not.



That doesn't mean they aren't a big consumer though.

Not a growing one perhaps, but still a big consumer nonetheless.

Taking just one product, oil, well 80% of the world's consumption takes place outside the US.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The potential is enormous with UK FDI in Australia: for example; we can build and establish an ethanol industry in FNQ and supply the UK directly with ethanol to power their economy.
> 
> Not sure why you think the Asian market is going to vanish; ASEAN are a huge consumer market with significant growth.
> 
> Hong Kong is in trouble, which will see massive capital and business flight to Singapore; perhaps Sydney and Tokyo will benefit somewhat, but Singapore is going to be the main beneficiary.




Simple demographics. Baby bust = no consumers. Lots of old farts = lots of cost of caring for them.



Smurf1976 said:


> That doesn't mean they aren't a big consumer though.
> 
> Not a growing one perhaps, but still a big consumer nonetheless.
> 
> Taking just one product, oil, well 80% of the world's consumption takes place outside the US.




That is now. I'm talking about years from now.


50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada



I take a only a casual interest in UK domestic news but there do seem to be definite moves in that direction from what's being reported about politics etc. They clearly seem to be looking to their historical ties once again at least in terms of what's being said.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Simple demographics. Baby bust = no consumers. Lots of old farts = lots of cost of caring for them.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




What are you talking about? Look at the demographics of the ASEAN nations; look at Indonesia.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I take a only a casual interest in UK domestic news but there do seem to be definite moves in that direction from what's being reported about politics etc. They clearly seem to be looking to their historical ties once again at least in terms of what's being said.




Absolutely; without a doubt. As an Australian, I welcome it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> 50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!




That might be true but I was assuming that most investors would have a somewhat shorter timeframe than that. 

In 50 years anything could happen. Go back 50 years and the entire concept of what you're doing right now would have made no sense at all to anyone back then for example given that the only electronics the average person owned was an AM radio, a turntable and a B&W TV.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> What are you talking about? Look at the demographics of the ASEAN nations; look at Indonesia.



Sorry, I should have specified asia more generally. However, like the mention of india, size does not necessarily mean wealth.

The long & the short of it is that an export market needs to be found to replace china/japan. Indonesia is not going to become the world's workshop that china has been for the past 3 decades. India is the one that actually has the best shot IMO.

This is all ignoring the geopolitical instability that zeihan predicts however - do you reject that thesis? Because shots were fired/people were killed on the india-china border just this weekend.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Sorry, I should have specified asia more generally. However, like the mention of india, size does not necessarily mean wealth.
> 
> The long & the short of it is that an export market needs to be found to replace china/japan. Indonesia is not going to become the world's workshop that china has been for the past 3 decades. India is the one that actually has the best shot IMO.
> 
> This is all ignoring the geopolitical instability that zeihan predicts however - do you reject that thesis?




Sure; however I think that our Western corporations shouldn't put all their eggs in just India. We can look at demographic pyramids if you want to consider nations of interest, starting with India:



Indonesia


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

That's a good starting point - but there's obviously far more to consider, such as access to energy or the oceans, political environment, geography, etc etc.

I can't see a vast archipelago like the philippines becoming the world's workshop, but a land mass like india, that I can see. That workshop then needs a market to sell into too.

We're still talking about a three step brit-aus-india process though. What actually is britain going to sell to aus that aus is then going to process or engineer or refine further to sell into this hypothetical well-off india? Same goes for the britain-canada-america question that won't actually be a hypothetical. 

Australia per se doesn't even sell anything other than raw commodities and food even now. Canada only sells oil. 


Smurf - I was really just talking about 10 years from now. Chronos & I actually have a friendly wager on for 2030. I just mentioned the 50 year timeframe to demonstrate the immense shifts that a lot of countries are currently undergoing.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> That's a good starting point - but there's obviously far more to consider, such as access to energy or the oceans, political environment, geography, etc etc.
> 
> I can't see a vast archipelago like the philippines becoming the world's workshop, but a land mass like india, that I can see. That workshop then needs a market to sell into too.
> 
> ...




The UK supplies Australia with the capital and skill/expertise, Australia supplies India with the resources and food, India supplies the world with the finished product like cheap textiles.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

I can see capital flight (investment), but that's all, and there's nothing that's been stopping that before brexit or any kind of trade deal. Nothing's changed from that perspective. 

The amount of actual *trade* between the countries is SFA.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I can see capital flight (investment), but that's all, and there's nothing that's been stopping that before brexit or any kind of trade deal. Nothing's changed from that perspective.
> 
> The amount of actual *trade* between the countries is SFA.




The UK weren't allowed to negotiate trade deals with Australia, or any other nation, while they were shackled to the EU. The 10s of billions of pounds being poured into the EU each year can now be allocated to UK domestic and international development.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

Sure, but I asked for what exactly and you basically said capital flight - which is a different thing. 

What actual *trade* do you think is now going to occur?


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

Good discussion btw.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Sure, but I asked for what exactly and you basically said capital flight - which is a different thing.
> 
> What actual *trade* do you think is now going to occur?




The old EU funds will be used for UK innovation and industry, which will be unleashed domestically and internationally now. This will result in British capitalism flourishing throughout the world again. British companies will be supported by the UK government to invest domestically and abroad in nations like Australia, Canada and New Zealand; which will naturally induce trade between the nations.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

Enough to make up the slack from whatever they lose out with reference the EU?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Enough to make up the slack from whatever they lose out with reference the EU?




The UK has the Commonwealth support network of Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Combined we have enough resources, land, capital and skill/expertise to be a highly successful economic alliance.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

I'm not entirely in disagreeance with your predictions reference the future, but enough to make up the difference from the losses from the EU I think is a hell of a stretch.

I think you're forgetting that aus, canada, nz all lost many of the same industries that the u.k did - many of them far more so. For example, I can't see U.K car companies or manufacturing coming to aus when aus doesn't even have a manufacturing sector any more.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I can't see U.K car companies or manufacturing coming to aus when aus doesn't even have a manufacturing sector any more.



We don't have much manufacturing left but it's not zero.

A few years ago I took a photo of a passenger ferry at a port in France.

Only reason I took the photo is that the ship was built in Tasmania about 3km from where I used to live and Incat are still building them there today. That's locally designed and manufactured, it's not just assembling someone else's design etc. https://www.incat.com.au/

Incat built vessels have held the record for the fastest Atlantic crossing by a commercial passenger vessel since 1990 by the way so they're pretty serious with what they design and build. "Hoverspeed Great Britain" (built in Hobart) won the Hales Trophy in 1990 and the record has since been broken twice, on both occasions by other vessels built by Incat in Hobart.

We do still make some things in Australia and some of it's right at the top in terms of quality and so on. Not enough in my opinion but it's not zero.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm not entirely in disagreeance with your predictions reference the future, but enough to make up the difference from the losses from the EU I think is a hell of a stretch.
> 
> I think you're forgetting that aus, canada, nz all lost many of the same industries that the u.k did - many of them far more so. For example, I can't see U.K car companies or manufacturing coming to aus when aus doesn't even have a manufacturing sector any more.




I think it will be largely within the industries of energy, mining, agriculture, aquaculture; as Australia, Canada and New Zealand can supply the UK with all these needs easily. Then there is the UK financial wizardry and UK defense expertise that Australia should also benefit from.


----------



## qldfrog (23 June 2020)

Following that debate with interest:
About UK and commonwealth helping us...dream baby dream.i do not try to offend anyone but this seems like a 100y old back to the past jump.
The UK is of no importance anymore.its financial market place was just as a headpoint in an English speaking world for EU access.
Due to immigration, its links are growing not with Canada, Australia or NZ but with India Pakistan and Nigeria.it is no wonder Jaguar is now Indian...a symbol...
UK as a power of any significance is long gone,and has long lost engineering and technical skills.this is no Germany.
India will grow but anyone working with both Indians and Chinese will quickly see India is not the next China . Indonesia has serious strength but also a serious weakness which is religious/cultural ..not PC to name it but why are not Pakistan and Bangladesh powerhouses?
They nevertheless remain consumption giants
We can provide food and resources to them but that means ramping up the chain and not sending live cattle, iron ore..otherwise, China will get the added value and we will get the peanuts.. Germany has an old population but they are economically powerful, so will be the China of the 50y future, potentially outsourcing the sweatshops to Vietnam Burma etc..
The ruthless in business and existing powerful network of overseas Chinese makes it a given.
The only factor possibly limiting that move is the greed of the CCP which will stop at nothing to stay in power, potentially against their own country interests..so risk of war, etc
My views...


----------



## over9k (23 June 2020)

I largely agree with you frog


----------



## qldfrog (24 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I largely agree with you frog



It is ok you will recover.i also sometimes agree with you .painful indeed. Our difference of opinion is more on you focusing on the public virus scare and its effect on the market..it has some sure: look at your investments and you are not alone..so i assume you made money out of your view and so see it validated,/confirmed.
I now considered the virus hit over.some legacy obviously...hard one but over.i invested that way..and made money.so see my views etc etc
I believe the truth is in the middle .learn how to exit Zoom soon enough and for me to track volatility and market wisely to exit my positions if need be...
I exited this week as this market can not be set aside for a week without risk, will be back in on Monday..this is a journey


----------



## over9k (24 June 2020)

War looks a near certainty at this point. There was a border clash with india just last weekend.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Following that debate with interest:
> About UK and commonwealth helping us...dream baby dream.i do not try to offend anyone but this seems like a 100y old back to the past jump.
> The UK is of no importance anymore.its financial market place was just as a headpoint in an English speaking world for EU access.
> Due to immigration, its links are growing not with Canada, Australia or NZ but with India Pakistan and Nigeria.it is no wonder Jaguar is now Indian...a symbol...
> ...



Pakistan is an unstable hotbed of terrorism. There is a serious terrorist attack, just about every day in Pakistan.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> It is ok you will recover.i also sometimes agree with you .painful indeed. Our difference of opinion is more on you focusing on the public virus scare and its effect on the market..it has some sure: look at your investments and you are not alone..so i assume you made money out of your view and so see it validated,/confirmed.
> I now considered the virus hit over.some legacy obviously...hard one but over.i invested that way..and made money.so see my views etc etc
> I believe the truth is in the middle .learn how to exit Zoom soon enough and for me to track volatility and market wisely to exit my positions if need be...
> I exited this week as this market can not be set aside for a week without risk, will be back in on Monday..this is a journey




It is the tsunami of non-performing loans that are going to take the market by surprise. We need access to credit default swap prices as an indicator to see if the big boys are taking out insurance now.


----------



## ducati916 (24 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It is the tsunami of non-performing loans that are going to take the market by surprise. We need access to credit default swap prices as an indicator to see if the big boys are taking out insurance now.





It's fine. Fed. has their back.




jog on
duc


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 June 2020)

ducati916 said:


> It's fine. Fed. has their back.
> 
> View attachment 105166
> 
> ...



How is the FED ever going to unwind its balance sheet? The FED are still holding the toxic assets/junk from the last GFC.


----------



## over9k (24 June 2020)

No they can just print the money, and will.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 June 2020)

This is only to the beginning of this year. The FED backed into a corner, no way they will be able to unwind without causing a financial crisis.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 June 2020)

FED are currently holding ~$2 trillion in mortgage backed securities junk



https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1


----------



## over9k (24 June 2020)

like i said, printing press go brr


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 June 2020)

over9k said:


> like i said, printing press go brr


----------



## jbocker (25 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> View attachment 105175



Those notes need more zeros.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

Yeah, about six of them per note. 

The QE etc going on are actually staggering figures when you think about it. But the fundamental of the virus being costly remains - the more the virus spreads, the more cost there is. Where that cost is concentrated, how the world reacts etc etc is obviously where the money is to be made. So far we've seen stay-at-home tech and safe havens like precious metals shoot up and vanishingly little else. 

Gold (as I'm sure chronus is aware) is knocking on the door of 1800/ounce for a reason.


----------



## jbocker (25 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah, about six of them per note.
> 
> The QE etc going on are actually staggering figures when you think about it. But the fundamental of the virus being costly remains - the more the virus spreads, the more cost there is. Where that cost is concentrated, how the world reacts etc etc is obviously where the money is to be made. So far we've seen stay-at-home tech and safe havens like precious metals shoot up and vanishingly little else.
> 
> Gold (as I'm sure chronus is aware) is knocking on the door of 1800/ounce for a reason.



..don't forget the company(s) that creates the cure / vaccine makers / coffin makers and toilet roll suppliers.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 June 2020)

over9k said:


> the fundamental of the virus being costly remains - the more the virus spreads, the more cost there is



In the context of the US there's now been a very clear breakout in infection rates with 23 June recording 36,015 new cases, the highest since 1 May and the third highest daily rate since the whole thing started. It's almost double the rate of new infections occurring earlier in June.

So if, and that is a big "if" I do acknowledge, the virus is going to upset the markets then we're probably not far from finding out. That said, we're in an era where people are buying shares in known bankrupt companies so perhaps a lack of profit, or even a complete lack of a functioning business (eg another hard lockdown), won't bother anyone too much and the markets go onwards and upwards.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

Remember what I was saying in the other thread RE: virus spikes and the end of this month?

Zoom's actually gained slightly today whilst even all the stay-at-home tech is down.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

What's perplexing is that even gold ETF's are down - we'd normally anticipate a spike under these circumstances. 

Chronos - I know you're a metals trader, care to chime in as to why gold hasn't spiked?


----------



## qldfrog (25 June 2020)

over9k said:


> What's perplexing is that even gold ETF's are down - we'd normally anticipate a spike under these circumstances.
> 
> Chronos - I know you're a metals trader, care to chime in as to why gold hasn't spiked?



I think it is now.jumped over my strategic $1750 USD ..I thought it would go lower, maybe will with the next mini crash but time to pile on again


----------



## basilio (25 June 2020)

The huge job cuts and forecasts of Qantas are not good news for anyone.  The implications for the economy are dark.
*Qantas cuts show how slow the economy's recovery from coronavirus will be*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...covery-from-coronavirus-will-be-slow/12391042


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (25 June 2020)

basilio said:


> The huge job cuts and forecasts of Qantas are not good news for anyone.  The implications for the economy are dark.
> *Qantas cuts show how slow the economy's recovery from coronavirus will be*
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...covery-from-coronavirus-will-be-slow/12391042




This is news from ~Feb 2020.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

That's not exactly news though - international travel will be basically non-existent until there's a vaccine.

I actually looked into qantas a fair bit when I started opening some small positions on it a few weeks ago (I've been buying the dips since it was at $3.50 so I'm basically just at breakeven at the moment, until tomorrow's bloodbath obviously) and roughly 75% of its business is domestic travel, which IS going to pick back up. Not to where it was obviously, but it'll be there. Australia's size and the distance between its cities necessitates at least some travel, but aus, aside from victoria, has contained the virus - this ensures and enables a domestic reopening that won't/can't occur in, say, the united states. Qantas was literally the only airline on earth I even thought about buying into and it remains so.

They've been ABLE to raise the capital they have for a reason.

I will be buying the bloodbath tomorrow (frog tells me he is too) and I bet you qantas is way up four weeks from now.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (25 June 2020)

over9k said:


> That's not exactly news though - international travel will be basically non-existent until there's a vaccine.
> 
> I actually looked into qantas a fair bit when I started opening some small positions on it a few weeks ago (I've been buying the dips since it was at $3.50 so I'm basically just at breakeven at the moment, until tomorrow's bloodbath obviously) and roughly 75% of its business is domestic travel, which IS going to pick back up. Not to where it was obviously, but it'll be there. Australia's size and the distance between its cities necessitates at least some travel, but aus, aside from victoria, has contained the virus - this ensures and enables a domestic reopening that won't/can't occur in, say, the united states. Qantas was literally the only airline on earth I even thought about buying into and it remains so.
> 
> ...




*Are QANTAS going to start paying me again?

Go ask AJ what to do; he gets paid the millions!*


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

Dividends? doubt.jpg

Cash is king even more so now.

A simple example of how overblown this is - the media's carrying on about the 747's going to the scrapheap etc now - they were scheduled for retirement (actually required to be scrapped) soon anyway!

I actually used to be a pilot (quit it all in 2014 and also now have a medical reason why I can't be aircrew) so this stuff is pretty much my wheelhouse and I have a couple of friends still in the industry so if anyone has any questions for me or some they'd like me to pass on to them I can certainly do so


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (25 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Dividends? doubt.jpg
> 
> Cash is king even more so now.
> 
> ...




Personally; I liked the RB211 engine over the CF6. A brilliant piece of engineering.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

My favourite is the J58


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (25 June 2020)

over9k said:


> My favourite is the J58




There are too many liars and cheaters in this world that claim **** that isn't theirs; I will come up with a new idea every week to put it over them.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> What's perplexing is that even gold ETF's are down - we'd normally anticipate a spike under these circumstances.
> 
> Chronos - I know you're a metals trader, care to chime in as to why gold hasn't spiked?




Sorry for the late reply. I missed the post; they were ganging up on me in the energy thread; baiting me. Anyway; Gold will be well above USD$2500 by the end of next year. Fade me if you like.

I am feeling the positive vibe from Wall Street tonight; Dow should close a few hundred up, at least. Fade me on this also, if you like.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Fade you? And what's the reason for your $2500 forecast?

You didn't tell me why gold didn't spike in response to a U.S market drop either 

P.S link to other thread? I have popcorn ready.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Fade you? And what's the reason for your $2500 forecast?
> 
> You didn't tell me why gold didn't spike in response to a U.S market drop either
> 
> P.S link to other thread? I have popcorn ready.




I have enough hooks in my mouth now 

I feel like a whale shark pulling the Oasis Of The Seas


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Fade you? And what's the reason for your $2500 forecast?
> 
> You didn't tell me why gold didn't spike in response to a U.S market drop either
> 
> P.S link to other thread? I have popcorn ready.




Give me ~15 mins; I will do a chart to predict the session close. I haven't done it in a while.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Give me ~15 mins; I will do a chart to predict the session close. I haven't done it in a while.





Pretty pathetic chart; but all I can find is on the 15 min. DOW broken out of the downtrend, not much of  channel though, and will bounce between ~25600 to ~25200 for the rest of the session. I am not the best chartist; haha


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

I'm in the stay-at-home stocks and I haven't had a single red day in ages, today no exception.

I posted in the other thread that all the overall market gains are coming from stay-at-home tech/megatech. Almost everything else is either negative or at best flat, and with tech making up such a large percentage of the index, we see an overall bump.

I moved almost my entire portfolio to stay-at-home tech weeks ago. It's been nothing but green ever since.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm in the stay-at-home stocks and I haven't had a single red day in ages, today no exception.
> 
> I posted in the other thread that all the overall market gains are coming from stay-at-home tech/megatech. Almost everything else is either negative or at best flat, and with tech making up such a large percentage of the index, we see an overall bump.




I am not touching anything, really. I have exposure to a couple of small cap miners, which I will buy more of if they drop. Other than that; it is cash and precious metals until this pandemic is over. I get the feeling that we are in the eye of the hurricane. I either buy at rock bottom prices or I buy when the pandemic is finished.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

I'm in total agreeance with you reference a lot of the market, but there's actually some fundamentals behind what I'm in, which I have no doubt is why they've had such stellar results.

Reference miners - I have a position in DEG that's up over 100% in just a few weeks. Also another in MGV.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm in total agreeance with you reference a lot of the market, but there's actually some fundamentals behind what I'm in, which I have no doubt is why they've had such stellar results.
> 
> Reference miners - I have a position in DEG that's up over 100% in just a few weeks. Also another in MGV.




I am too late to go into E-tail and Fin-tech now. 

I missed the boat with DEG, and I want to see a PFS before I jump in. 

I haven't really looked at MGV, the drill results look decent so far, but looks like I missed the boat there also.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

A friend of mine that trades this stuff reckoned DEG would hit $1 by the end of the year no problem. The way things are going, he's underestimated things. 

I don't reckon you're too late on anything I'm currently in - I'm just waiting for the 3rd of july jobs data to come out before I decide which trigger to pull on another couple of positions.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> A friend of mine that trades this stuff reckoned DEG would hit $1 by the end of the year no problem. The way things are going, he's underestimated things.
> 
> I don't reckon you're too late on anything I'm currently in - I'm just waiting for the 3rd of july jobs data to come out before I decide which trigger to pull on another couple of positions.




Good job getting in early on DEG; perhaps it runs higher, maybe a takeover from a big player.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

The trade that I am looking at now is Long Corn. Sure ending stocks are forecast higher with harvest stocks, however I am thinking overreaction, cycle lows:


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Food (see what I did there) for thought: 


Most of the world’s corn isn’t eaten by people; but instead it is eaten by things people eat. Primarily cows, hogs and chickens.

One of the quirks of the American-led global Order that has dominated the world since World War II is that countries that normally couldn’t be physically secure or economically successful on their own suddenly could. For many that meant steadily increasing standards of living. That meant they wanted more and better food. Most people define more and better food as animal protein.

But while the Order radically changed the geostrategic environment, it didn’t touch the physical environment. If your climate and soil prevented you from growing a lot of of food before, you probably still couldn’t no matter what the Americans did or did not do. What you could do is build up an animal herd, and import the fodder to fatten it up. And so that’s what was done. Pretty much everywhere.

Enter coronavirus.

Global transport has crashed. The Americans used to use about half the corn they produced specifically to produce ethanol, a biofuel they mix into their gasoline. Since Americans are not driving, their need for ethanol has crashed right along with their need for gasoline. The United States is both the world's largest producer and exporter of corn. American farmers are planting their crops right now, and so far they are planting just as much corn as before.

With US transport demand unlikely to recover this year, we’re looking at gross global corn oversupply with the expected downward pressure on corn prices. Globally, this is great. It implies little risk (at least on the supply side) to global meat production. Among major corn producers, in contrast, it suggests quite the glut. Corn farmers the world over – most notably in the United States, China, Argentina and Brazil – be warned.

zeihan.com


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Food (see what I did there) for thought:
> 
> 
> Most of the world’s corn isn’t eaten by people; but instead it is eaten by things people eat. Primarily cows, hogs and chickens.
> ...




The farmers will have to rotate out of corn if there is no demand, and into something else; or just not bother at all. I suppose ethanol can be produced, but I doubt the farmers will get top dollar for their harvest.

Corn price has been down to ~$2.20, maybe less, back in 2009/2010


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

Anyway; it has been an eventful day; with the majority of this forum ganging up on me.

At least I generated some productive ideas with energy; despite the relentless harassment.

We will see if my DOW prediction holds true this trading session.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

This forum is absolutely lovely compared to the one I've frequented in the past. If you want to experience real douchebags, head on over to the career/education/finance section of overclockers australia. 

A bigger group of f**kwits you will never find.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> This forum is absolutely lovely compared to the one I've frequented in the past. If you want to experience real douchebags, head on over to the career/education/finance section of overclockers australia.
> 
> A bigger group of f**kwits you will never find.




I was thinking I might jump on the American stock forums; but we will see what today brings on here.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Pretty pathetic chart; but all I can find is on the 15 min. DOW broken out of the downtrend, not much of  channel though, and will bounce between ~25600 to ~25200 for the rest of the session. I am not the best chartist; haha




Approaching the final hour; I wonder if my prediction will be true; so far the DOW has traded this session between 25600 and 25200, just as I called it.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Approaching the final hour; I wonder if my prediction will be true; so far the DOW has traded this session between 25600 and 25200, just as I called it.




25600 level breached to by ~50 points in the last hour of the trading session. Still pretty close


----------



## qldfrog (26 June 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> 25600 level breached to by ~50 points in the last hour of the trading session. Still pretty close



Let's add a hook:
So you were wrong?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 June 2020)

Back on message

*Transport & Logistics*

“We've had 10 weeks operating like the size of Christmas”
_Christine Holgate, CEO, Australia Post_

“Commercial traffic continues to display a great resilience to date” 
_Market Announcement, Transurban Group_

“There has been a material flattening and decline in demand experienced during May and June 2020 resulting in a significant reduction in freight tasks. This flattening generally coincides with an end to COVID-19 related panic buying for many products, and as widely reported a decrease in economic activity and conditions within the domestic economy”
_Market Announcement, Lindsay Australia Ltd_

“As a result of our forecasts we concluded that a significant decline in ocean transport volume and a restrained stance on customer’s investments will be unavoidable in the foreseeable future” 
_Market Announcement, Mitsui OSK Lines [Japan's Largest Ship Owner]_


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Let's add a hook:
> So you were wrong?




Well if you go back to my first comment I said I am feeling a positive vibe from Wall Street and the DOW should end up a few hundred at least, which it did. Then I posted the chart and gave a range prediction which the DOW followed until the last hour of the session. So I was remarkably accurate.


----------



## qldfrog (26 June 2020)

I am mostly sharing your thoughts on that subject so not big surprised


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

I will just stick with trading and investing discussion after yesterday. No more political discussions and problem solving ideas on here for me.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (26 June 2020)

Some interesting import/export graphs here between China and USA; purchase commitments are a fair way off:



https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/piie_0.png?itok=-BfC62aL


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Yeah, the only thing that's going to do much for industrials will be the infrastructure spending bill, which has a very realistic shot of simply being rejected by congress.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Among major corn producers, in contrast, it suggests quite the glut. Corn farmers the world over – most notably in the United States, China, Argentina and Brazil – be warned.



It's also a negative for the oil price.

If there's a surplus of corn and cheap ethanol, well there's plenty of petrol sold which could have some (or more) ethanol added to it.

There are of course many other things influencing the oil price, some of which are pushing it up, but if there's plenty of ethanol around well that's a negative for oil given the ability to add some or more to petrol in many places.

As for the virus itself, well the US just recorded a record daily infection rate on 25 June, exceeding the previous record set on 24 June.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Ethanol: yep, I'd expect to see a lot of blend fuel in the future. 

virus data: yep and it's playing merry hell with the markets, just like I predicted. duc thinks he's right because the market overall is rising, but that's just because of how much tech has shot up. almost everything else is at best flat, with most of it in the toilet.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Another cross-post 

The one screencap which really says everything at the moment: 




I know I keep saying this but tech and stay-at-home tech have had very different results and it's the stay-at-home tech that's driving the gains in tech overall.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 June 2020)

US healthcare costs a shocker for Covid stay

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...omes-with-a-1-1-million-dollar-hospital-bill/

$1,112 million , thanks very much. At least he survived.

And international travel is going to kick back up, just like before? With a side dish of Mickey Mouse Insurance, please.


----------



## Joe90 (29 June 2020)

over9k said:


> This forum is absolutely lovely compared to the one I've frequented in the past. If you want to experience real douchebags, head on over to the career/education/finance section of overclockers australia.
> 
> A bigger group of f**kwits you will never find.




I looked for that forum out of interest's sake but couldn't find it. Did they close it after you left ???


----------



## over9k (30 June 2020)

It's not publicly viewable, you have to get an account before you can see it.


----------



## sptrawler (30 June 2020)

Slowly we turn the ship, one small step at a time.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/woolworths-little-ones-nappies-made-australia-not-china-055000845.html


----------



## sptrawler (1 July 2020)

Well @wayneL, your prediction GST will be high on the agenda, is playing out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/gst-20-years-old-is-it-time-to-increase-the-tax-rate/12407258

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw...ys-key-tax-reform-review-20200630-p557qn.html


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well @wayneL, your prediction GST will be high on the agenda, is playing out.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/gst-20-years-old-is-it-time-to-increase-the-tax-rate/12407258
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw...ys-key-tax-reform-review-20200630-p557qn.html



It will be a two pronged push, GST  to 15 or possibly even 20%, plus a renewed push for the cash ban legislation. 

initially $10,000 but very quickly adjusted via regulation down to probably around $2,000

Then complete AUD digitisation, possibly with some sort of attempt to outlaw cryptocurrencies.

IMHO


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (1 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> US healthcare costs a shocker for Covid stay
> 
> https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...omes-with-a-1-1-million-dollar-hospital-bill/
> 
> ...




Good luck trying to get COVID coverage into your travel insurance package.


----------



## sptrawler (1 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> It will be a two pronged push, GST  to 15 or possibly even 20%, plus a renewed push for the cash ban legislation.
> 
> initially $10,000 but very quickly adjusted via regulation down to probably around $2,000
> 
> ...



I agree 100%, I think with 5-10 years the largest note will be $5, then eventually all electronic.
The world governments have to move on with digital for several reasons, tracking, tax avoidance and as you say they can't let a sub currency take hold, very hard to control monetary policy when you don't control the currency.
GST has to go up, you can't have company tax returns dropping, income tax returns dropping and welfare payments going up.
The tax(money) has to come from somewhere.


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> It will be a two pronged push, GST  to 15 or possibly even 20%, plus a renewed push for the cash ban legislation.
> 
> initially $10,000 but very quickly adjusted via regulation down to probably around $2,000
> 
> ...



Which is actually turning me into a cryptocurrency and gold/silver megabull.


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I agree 100%, I think with 5-10 years the largest note will be $5, then eventually all electronic.
> The world governments have to move on with digital for several reasons, tracking, tax avoidance and as you say they can't let a sub currency take hold, very hard to control monetary policy when you don't control the currency.
> GST has to go up, you can't have company tax returns dropping, income tax returns dropping and welfare payments going up.
> The tax(money) has to come from somewhere.



Which, once again, screws the lower and middle income sector, perennial cash cow for profligate governments.

I have some other predictions which might be a little bit too controversial for here, for now.

Suffice to say "we live in interesting times".


----------



## SirRumpole (1 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> GST has to go up, you can't have company tax returns dropping, income tax returns dropping and welfare payments going up.
> The tax(money) has to come from somewhere.




Here's an idea, what's sauce for the goose...

Why don't we say that we will drop business  tax to 20% providing they can't claim deductions for GST they have paid ?

That's the trick they played on consumers, why not businesses as well ?

We're all in this together after all.


----------



## sptrawler (1 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Here's an idea, what's sauce for the goose...
> 
> Why don't we say that we will drop business  tax to 20% providing they can't claim deductions for GST they have paid ?
> 
> ...



Even if mining companies paid pump prices for diesel it would help.


----------



## wayneL (1 July 2020)

First cab off the rank


----------



## sptrawler (1 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> First cab off the rank




I'm not convinced gold is a safe haven, just can't see it being involved in a digital currency.


----------



## jbocker (2 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> First cab off the rank




Caronavirus is a catalyst. The Saudis don't have a future plan beyond selling oil.


----------



## over9k (2 July 2020)

And shale's absolutely f***ed them, hence them pumping it like nobody's business trying to send all the other producers bust.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 July 2020)

NAB are mothballing an entire major office building in Melbourne:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...oria-locks-down-20200701-p557zi.html#comments



> NAB will "mothball" two major office towers for the foreseeable future, including its Melbourne Docklands headquarters




If they're able to carry on business as usual without the cost of major CBD office buildings the the logical question is why would they or anyone else go back to having them in future?

All that rent, cost of cleaning, utilities etc plus staff are going to be absent due to illness far more often in a major building than if they're working from home.


----------



## over9k (2 July 2020)

Yeah, a lot of businesses are realising just how easy working from home has become. Same with employees. 

I can see a lot of commercial real estate hitting the market soon - if it sits empty or yielding nothing then maybe we'll see calls for much of it to be rezoned residential or something.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah, a lot of businesses are realising just how easy working from home has become. Same with employees.
> 
> I can see a lot of commercial real estate hitting the market soon - if it sits empty or yielding nothing then maybe we'll see calls for much of it to be rezoned residential or something.



So what's the point of having our cities organised on _hub & spoke _arrangements. All those transport lines, congestion. Why concentrate in large expensive locations; what about some decentralisation?

Exciting times.


----------



## sptrawler (2 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> So what's the point of having our cities organised on _hub & spoke _arrangements. All those transport lines, congestion. Why concentrate in large expensive locations; what about some decentralisation?
> 
> Exciting times.



The main reason cities are organised the way they are is because people want to live there, more amenity more services, bigger market place. 
So service companies locate there, their workforce locate there, major company head offices locate there because their management want to live there and the ponzi system grows and grows.


----------



## sptrawler (2 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah, a lot of businesses are realising just how easy working from home has become. Same with employees.
> 
> I can see a lot of commercial real estate hitting the market soon - if it sits empty or yielding nothing then maybe we'll see calls for much of it to be rezoned residential or something.



A friend who owns a travel agency has set up everything on line due to the virus, the business is really struggling but she is adapting, organising tours inside W.A, now she is trying to get out of her lease of the shop it is killing her financially.
So as you say 9k, there must be heaps of businesses that are in the same boat.
Imagine small travel agents in Victoria, it must be a nightmare for them.
As Rumpy has said humans adapt, so the accelerated changes to the way we do business will happen quickly, the interesting bit will be who are the winners and who are the runners up.
It is a bit like at the shopping centre the other day the Uni Qlo shop was packed, I asked the wife why, she said they sell nice plain clothing, not everyone wants to loud and proud.
Maybe the world is changing.


----------



## jbocker (2 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> So what's the point of having our cities organised on _hub & spoke _arrangements. All those transport lines, congestion. Why concentrate in large expensive locations; what about some decentralisation?
> 
> Exciting times.



Technology can allow us to move out of the office, but fundamentally we have always come together and formed hubs from day dot. I am not sure we can knock that out of our social need and psychology. It may take a couple of generations. We haven't learned the real issues of working from home yet. It might not be that healthy. It has been successful to this issue to a large degree and I think the flexibility is where the value is. Agree with that being exciting.
Manufacturing (what is left of it) will still need their zones, Too hard to replicate the machinery required, at home.


----------



## jbocker (2 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah, a lot of businesses are realising just how easy working from home has become. Same with employees.
> 
> I can see a lot of commercial real estate hitting the market soon - if it sits empty or yielding nothing then maybe we'll see calls for much of it to be rezoned residential or something.



Yes there has already been lots of translation of buildings to having mixed purposes. Ghost cities on the weekend and every night is ridiculous. I think the hours of work will change as well because commute times will be cut significantly. Allow people to shop for their needs over greater periods during the day. If working from home takes a greater hold, I see cafes, lunch bars and bars taking on conference settings for staff to get together periodically to take the place of having a dedicated office.


----------



## qldfrog (2 July 2020)

FWIW, I have been working from home intensively for the past 10y or so;
once the physical issues are removed:

a few unPC truths: working for home is not for everyone, some people have no self control and productivity goes down to zero, it is not easy, and you need to like your work, no pretend
working for home with preschool kids running around and babies is pure BS: productivity is abysmal, it is hard enough to stay awake with small babies at home, no way can you be productive when they are awake, mummy/daddy I am bored every 5 minutes...
As for working when they sleep, you are too tired to even think straight..
of a couple, one will have to sacrifice at any given time, or still pay childcare
water cooler discussion is important: so even if on different teams project company, it is good to share a working environment a la WeWorks..It can be a cafe, a library...for me... or shared office
That is my experience of WFH.
Lastly, do not kid yourself, unless you are better cheaper than that philippo indian guy/lady, you will be pushed away if you can be mostly remoted


----------



## qldfrog (2 July 2020)

last point is probably what will kill us even more in the west...


----------



## sptrawler (2 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> last point is probably what will kill us even more in the west...



My son in law runs a small business, all the office work is done in India, so you are spot on it is happening. Remote doesn't have to mean in suburbia, it could be anywhere.


----------



## jbocker (2 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My son in law runs a small business, all the office work is done in India, so you are spot on it is happening. Remote doesn't have to mean in suburbia, it could be anywhere.



I know one VERY BIG company who is pulling that capability out of India. It IS coming home.


----------



## over9k (2 July 2020)

Yeah people forget that foreign labour is usually cheap for a reason. Paying the extra few bucks for superior work can often be worth it.


----------



## sptrawler (2 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> I know one VERY BIG company who is pulling that capability out of India. It IS coming home.



That is great, I think that this virus and the associated logistical problems have shone a light on business model problems and I mean every business from the tradesman right through to commercial property leasing.


----------



## sptrawler (2 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah people forget that foreign labour is usually cheap for a reason. Paying the extra few bucks for superior work can often be worth it.



I don't think anyone begrudges paying more, for superior work, over time I think only one side of the equation has increased.


----------



## over9k (3 July 2020)

The talking heads on bloomberg actually had someone decent on for a change - Andrew Cogan, CEO of Knoll, is launching a complete "work from home" line/package soon as they have sales data on this kind of stuff and the long & the short of it is that a lot of companies have no intention to ever return to previous levels, and whatever levels they do return to will not be for a long time yet. 

His market research has told them (unsurprisingly) that work from home is not created equal as some people already had decent desktop pc's, a study or separate room to work from etc etc whereas many didn't and whilst they want to come back to work, a lot of companies are not intending for people to actually come back to the office, ergo those people with crappy home setups are basically going to be required/forced to work from home now and will thus be setting things up properly (buying decent home office stuff) now that they realise that they're in this for the long haul. 

None of which should be any surprise to anyone whatsoever.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (3 July 2020)

Virus cases in these states are clearly picking up pace:


----------



## over9k (3 July 2020)

Yep and it spooked the markets this morning, after a 1-1.5% bounce on open due to good employment data, virus data was released at about half an hour in and everything except stay-at-home tech has just nosedived since.


----------



## qldfrog (3 July 2020)

California can not possibly see case increasing, it is anti Trump, liberal minded and Democrat managed.
Figures must be wrong

Obviously tongue in cheek..
How the hell are they going to blame this on Trump..to be followed..


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 July 2020)

the  economic implications of the Pandemic..... (_*cont*_.)

We've talked about the impact that working from home has made, and now some return to work is being considered/ done. Property people are getting a feel for what's happening. Some is wishful thinking, but workplaces will be different, as will employee engagement



> “What we are finding is that as people bring people back to the office now, fewer people can be in the environment, so it’s much harder to restrict your space and your real estate when you need more space for fewer people. We aren’t seeing a dramatic trend in real estate in [regards to] size and lease reductions”



_Andi Owen, CEO, Herman Miller Inc [multinational office furniture manufacturer]_



> “We have all seen articles suggesting the office is dead, and we will all work from home. Those types of articles were being written 20 years ago, and they were wrong then and they are wrong now. They show up every time there is a new technology like laptops and then high-speed Internet and Wi-Fi and now low-cost videoconferencing platforms. The predictions are always wrong because it's not about the technology, it's about the people”



_Jim Keane, CEO, Steelcase Inc [world’s largest office furniture manufacturer]_



> “Almost every company on the planet is and will have to re-imagine their business. And I believe in the next two years, there is going to be more change than in the last 10. Quite simply, different work needs to get done and work needs to get done differently and to get work done differently, companies will need to rethink their org structure, roles and responsibilities”



_Gary Burnison, CEO, Korn Ferry Inc [global management consultancy company]_

but one sector where impact will be long and tortuous







> "I will go on the record to say that travel will never, ever go back to the way it was pre-COVID. It just won’t. People will, one day, get back on planes. But one of the things that I do think is a fairly permanent shift is...a redistribution of where travelers go. I think a lot of people are going to realise they don’t need to get on an airplane to have a meeting”



_Brian Chesky, CEO, Airbnb Inc
_
_and if the pointy end of the plane can't be filled with high yielding passengers, it will be more expensive down the back!!_


----------



## IFocus (3 July 2020)

Asked long term colleagues how it was going working from home.

1. They all said they got more done less BS interruptions
2. All started earlier finished later because of no commute time.
3. Meetings cleaned up and on point usually 60% less time than usual.
4. A lot walked or exercised at some point during the day.

A big negative for those who had wife's not working, more food / coffee  = putting on weight 

BTW none had technology problems.


----------



## wayneL (3 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Asked long term colleagues how it was going working from home.
> 
> 1. They all said they got more done less BS interruptions
> 2. All started earlier finished later because of no commute time.
> ...



That concurs exactly with what I'm hearing.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 July 2020)

daughter (rhymes with laughter) tells me they're instructed to keep working from home, not to go to office unless they have to.
Son in academia; still doing the office reno but Uni has no money, so no desk; stay away as long as internet is ticketty-boo
And neighbour sent home yesterday; essentially marched off the premises at noon (am in a hotspot suburb)

at least they have jobs


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Asked long term colleagues how it was going working from home.




The only argument I can see for the modern style of open plan office over either WFH or an old style office setup with rooms and doors, is that the modern approach enables workplace politics far more effectively.

It has appeal to middle managers or those wanting to become middle managers but it doesn't do much for either employees or the business since it tends to kill productivity. 

Obviously that applies only to offices, it's very different in workshops, factories, trucks and so on.


----------



## over9k (4 July 2020)

So apparently office rents in new york are down 25% and outright purchase costs are down 40%. I'm honestly surprised it's not worse.


----------



## qldfrog (4 July 2020)

Was watching a french tv short report yesterday and they mentioned the fact that you can have had covid and fought it back hands off be unaffected and in my understanding be immunised without even be detectable.if proven, this has massive repercussions both medical and economic as the infection rate might be overly underreported which would mean much lower casualty rate and make this virus more benign for the general population.
With obvious economic consequences if the information is released which is not a given.
As with climate change and other trending matters, we are seeing actions/ responses way out of wack with what figure based analysis would demand.obviously the why pops up and what many would see as fringe conspiracy theories rise.
I do not read any conspiracy theories material unless you class Wayne posts as such .... but am starting to build an image of a great reset ,for other lack of other word,being orchestrated.
Actually a great idea and concept if i was in power.
So how can we benefit out of this, as we can hardly fight it against the mass propaganda and clear unwillingness of people to think independently


----------



## qldfrog (4 July 2020)

I will try to fork a thread about that: the reset trends, the economics implication where covids stands which areas of the market to monitor and leverage


----------



## jbocker (4 July 2020)

The Victorian wave can be seen. Lets hope it is thwarted early, but I suspect it wont be. Made more difficult as they can watch the rest of Australia returning to 'normal' activities. The streets are going to get ugly as businesses and workers from selected suburbs are targeted for lockdown. Its divisive.
This is going to cause a lot of frustration from one suburb to the next. It is a community problem and I think it has to be an all in approach. I cannot see how little 'embers' are picked up till the postal district becomes a hot spot.
Going to be like catching frogs on lilypads.

Good Luck I truly hope you win this early.


----------



## over9k (4 July 2020)

Oh yeah, vic's boned. All the protesters spread it like wildfire. The whole state's going to be in quarantine while the rest of the country returns to normal/travels between each other. 

My sympathy is pretty limited considering how self-inflicted it is. I just feel sorry for the people that did the right thing and stayed home etc.


----------



## over9k (4 July 2020)

I saw a great meme yesterday that said: 

"The people who have stayed home, only gone out when they've absolutely had to, always worn masks whenever they've had to go somewhere etc etc are the ones who did the entire uni groupwork assignments on their own". 

Hilarious, but so depressingly true too.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh yeah, vic's boned. All the protesters spread it like wildfire. The whole state's going to be in quarantine while the rest of the country returns to normal/travels between each other.
> 
> My sympathy is pretty limited considering how self-inflicted it is. I just feel sorry for the people that did the right thing and stayed home etc.



No, not true. That's just the meme.

We had it under control but in two hotels where we had travellers coming in the security guards rooted the girls they were meant to guard and then spread it at Ramadan celebration to their community. Just pathetic. 

NSW had the army doing the guarding and no problem.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (4 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> View attachment 105557
> 
> The Victorian wave can be seen. Lets hope it is thwarted early, but I suspect it wont be. Made more difficult as they can watch the rest of Australia returning to 'normal' activities. The streets are going to get ugly as businesses and workers from selected suburbs are targeted for lockdown. Its divisive.
> This is going to cause a lot of frustration from one suburb to the next. It is a community problem and I think it has to be an all in approach. I cannot see how little 'embers' are picked up till the postal district becomes a hot spot.
> ...




Absolutely. We seemed to be trapped in an alternation between opening up the economy and closing it down when an outbreak occurs.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (4 July 2020)

World Economic Forum surveyed 347 senior risk analysts on the post-COVID world:


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

According to S&P base case: credit cost maintenance for Chinese Banks are estimated to be ~RMB 1.6 Trillion due to an expected surge in nonperforming assets of ~38.9%.




Full article here: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en...could-rise-by-us-224-billion-in-2020-11428188


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## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

The world clearly doesn't have this virus under control; our international and domestic borders need to remain closed for the foreseeable future. I think we can aim to go back to business as usual only within our own domestic states, with the borders remaining closed:


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## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> According to S&P base case: credit cost maintenance for Chinese Banks are estimated to be ~RMB 1.6 Trillion due to an expected surge in nonperforming assets of ~38.9%.
> 
> View attachment 105596
> 
> ...




That's a comically optimistic chart if I ever saw one! I particularly like the 2.3% chance of increased military conflicts (hahaha!) and a less than 50% chance of reduction in travel and international trade, meaning they think the consensus view among senior risk analysts is that international travel and trade will *PROBABLY NOT* be reduced in 18 months! Haha! Almost all figures are less than 50%, most less than 25%, while in reality a lot of the realistic actual figures are pretty much 100% and certainly over 50%.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> The world clearly doesn't have this virus under control; our international and domestic borders need to remain closed for the foreseeable future. I think we can aim to go back to business as usual only within our own domestic states, with the borders remaining closed:




Take a moment to have a good think about this statement.

Yes, this virus is out of control. That was obvious in February, arguably January. I was puzzled at people still asking the question in March as though it was a valid question. Now in July we can presumably all agree on this much...

So, what does keeping borders closed achieve? The virus is already out of control. We agree on this. This means it is already out of control. The time to try to control it has already passed. What does shutting down borders now achieve? Hint: If something is already everywhere, keeping it out has become impossible, and letting a tiny amount slip from one place where it exists to another place where it already exists isn't particularly tragic.

People have not only a lack of ability to think critically without emotional bias, but very short memories. It was literally only a month or two ago when the mantra was 'flatten the curve'. I don't think it has been long enough for people not to recognise that term, but you'll notice it's not being used now. Think about why. It makes absolutely no sense now! The idea was that inevitably the virus would spread through everyone, we couldn't stop it, but we could flatten the curve so that at the peak there would be as little drain on the health system as possible, and then we'd have heard immunity and life would go on (to be clear, this was the official goal, not my own agenda or anything). It turned out that the virus is so mild that it was almost eliminated. The curve is so flat that it literally won't ever come to an end. We had a peak of around 5,000 known cases in Australia, which then reduced to around 350. Then we had mass protest gatherings etc and a surge in numbers up to around 900 (keep in mind that most people have symptoms so mild they don't even know they have anything) and of course we blame family gatherings, but the point is, even with this going on, we have a curve so low that it literally can't ever play out. In a hundred years we could still maintain the virus at a low level within the community, if it was economically possible to live this way indefinitely. So, what's the end goal? When we had the virus down to a few hundred known cases, we decided to relax restrictions, then when numbers increase we increase restrictions again? Do you want to do this forever and have an indefinitely crippled country? The inevitable result will obviously be that the country gets weakened until it is taken over/bought out by stronger countries.

Look at the worst hit countries, their average age of virus deaths is around the same age as their countries' average life expectancies. Look at Australia, it's the same pattern, just in lower numbers. What are we achieving? Severely harming the country to either delay the inevitable or destroying the country to achieve nothing?

What is your end game? Depending on your view of the virus, lockdowns either delay the inevitable at extreme cost, or achieve nothing at extreme cost. How do you propose this situation is going to resolve?


----------



## qldfrog (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Take a moment to have a good think about this statement.
> 
> Yes, this virus is out of control. That was obvious in February, arguably January. I was puzzled at people still asking the question in March as though it was a valid question. Now in July we can presumably all agree on this much...
> 
> ...



You are playing to my ears..indeed..what now? Do we want to become the Hamish country of the world, the new north Korea?

You will see then any sensible discussion is impossible, too emotive by people brainwashed by endless reporting on how bad the Us are or Victoria.there is no sensible figure based talk, just scare tactics right and left so my conviction this is used as part of an agenda.
Thinking about it, as Sweden the far left darling is the only western country with a different reaction, we must all be in a far right take over evil plan...
Just teasing....


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> That's a comically optimistic chart if I ever saw one! I particularly like the 2.3% chance of increased military conflicts (hahaha!) and a less than 50% chance of reduction in travel and international trade, meaning they think the consensus view among senior risk analysts is that international travel and trade will *PROBABLY NOT* be reduced in 18 months! Haha! Almost all figures are less than 50%, most less than 25%, while in reality a lot of the realistic actual figures are pretty much 100% and certainly over 50%.




I think you responded to the wrong post/image buddy. Anyway; if you have a problem, it is with the expert risk analysts, not me.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Take a moment to have a good think about this statement.
> 
> Yes, this virus is out of control. That was obvious in February, arguably January. I was puzzled at people still asking the question in March as though it was a valid question. Now in July we can presumably all agree on this much...
> 
> ...




The virus isn't out of control in NSW!

Point being that we must keep our domestic border closed so that we can get back to business and open up our restaurants, pubs, cinemas, and so on. Or we can just open up the border, and let the virus run out of control, that will risk overwhelming our hospital system, and force us back into full lockdown again which will cause more economic pain.


----------



## over9k (5 July 2020)

The virus is well within control in plenty of places. Not many, but some.


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## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

over9k said:


> The virus is well within control in plenty of places. Not many, but some.




That is correct. I posted the chart to highlight the vulnerability of our domestic states and to remind us that we need to keep our borders closed at all costs to ensure that our domestic state economies have the best chance to get back to business as usual under these global conditions.

Instead I get a provocative and disingenuous response that could have been written in a little paragraph rather than an incoherent long rant.

I am happy to engage in intelligent discourse and we don't have to agree on everything; but please spare me the provocations and trolling. If that person does it again, they can go my ignore list as I don't wish to waste my time.


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## over9k (5 July 2020)

Yeah this whole "the virus can't be controlled and lockdowns are therefore futile and it's also harmless therefore lockdowns are also pointless" narrative absolutely boggles my mind. 

It absolutely can be controlled and it's absolutely harmful/fatal increasing exponentially with age.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah this whole "the virus can't be controlled and lockdowns are therefore futile and it's also harmless therefore lockdowns are also pointless" narrative absolutely boggles my mind.
> 
> It absolutely can be controlled and it's absolutely harmful/fatal increasing exponentially with age.




I agree that it is a real threat. We in Australia have put in a huge sacrifice, at an enormous economic cost, to just throw it all away now. I want our states to get back to business with all our restaurants, pubs, clubs, grocery stores, and so on; operating without any COVID restrictions while we keep our domestic and international borders closed. I see that keeping our domestic borders closed is a measure of redundancy that builds greater resilience in keeping this virus under control; thus ensuring that we don't go back into lockdowns again, like in Victoria.

Once all the states have had a few months with minimal new COVID cases, while economically operating without any COVID restrictions; then we should drop the domestic border closures. Forget about opening up our country internationally; even for Hong Kong students and citizens, Hong Kong isn't our problem.


----------



## satanoperca (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> What is your end game? Depending on your view of the virus, lockdowns either delay the inevitable at extreme cost, or achieve nothing at extreme cost. How do you propose this situation is going to resolve?



Great question.

Would love to know what our PM and premiers answer would be?

Something along the lines of IHN F..king Idea.

Let it ripe, you cannot defeat it, nor isolate it. This is the biggest joke is mismanagement of a crisis, well a claytons crisis, a crisis that is not really a crisis.


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## sptrawler (5 July 2020)

The upcoming reporting season, should give a better indication of the economic fallout and which sectors have been affected the most.
Some States will have a lot more fallout than others IMO, especially the areas highly dependent on tourism, but will that be localised?
The banks will probably have to provision more for bad and doubtfull debts, super may take a hit on reduced dividends, withdrawls and writedowns, also I wonder how long online travel related companies can carry a business model that can't supply a service.
In reality the lack of overseas tourism coming into Australia may not have a massive effect, as it isn't a huge money generator, as opposed to the extra money Australians will be spending due to not being able to travel overseas.
Just my opinion, but the reporting season will show whether the Government cash splash has worked.
All the above just my personal thoughts, certainly is uncharted waters.


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## over9k (5 July 2020)

You talking U.S or australia there trawler?

Aus is reopening intranationally and I expect there to be a "bubble" with NZ as well. Everyone are just keeping the border with victoria closed. VIC will get it under control eventually, just months after everyone else. This has already been announced.

If you're talking USA, then yeah, they're boned.


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## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Great question.
> 
> Would love to know what our PM and premiums answer would be?
> 
> ...




If you bothered to read what I have just written, then you will see the path.

1. All states go back to business as usual without COVID restrictions while domestic and international borders remain closed.
2. Once all states have gone back to business as usual, without COVID restrictions, with minimal new COVID cases, for a reasonable duration of time; then we open up our domestic borders.
3. Once all our states have gone back to business as usual, without COVID restrictions, with minimal new cases for a reasonable duration of time, with no domestic border closures; then we can look at opening up our international borders with other select nations.

Opening up our international borders will not happen unless our nation and the respective nation agree on all the specific conditions and rules of international travel while the world is struggling to deal with the virus. Sort of like a WhatsApp group; the group doesn't want someone allowed into the group, who is going to infect the rest of the group.


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## over9k (5 July 2020)

Everything's going to reopen for interstate movement but with the international and victorian borders remaining closed. This has already been announced. The only question is whether we see travel to/from NZ being implemented in a similar fashion - i.e without victoria. I reckon we will. I own some AIA.


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## sptrawler (5 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You talking U.S or australia there trawler?
> 
> Aus is reopening intranationally and I expect there to be a "bubble" with NZ as well. Everyone are just keeping the border with victoria closed. VIC will get it under control eventually, just months after everyone else. This has already been announced.
> 
> If you're talking USA, then yeah, they're boned.



My post was just my feelings as to where Australia is ATM, as I said it is uncharted waters, so the fallout will be interesting IMO. Trying to guess if or where the


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Everything's going to reopen for interstate movement but with the international and victorian borders remaining closed. This has already been announced. The only question is whether we see travel to/from NZ being implemented in a similar fashion - i.e without victoria. I reckon we will.




People from NSW and Victoria have been crossing the border unrestricted for weeks. Gladys said the other day that it's OK, we will deal with the outbreaks. Yes; we will deal with the outbreaks by going into lockdown again.

Open up the domestics borders without NSW and VIC, and make sure that our NSW and VIC border is closed properly this time; if we aren't capable of being disciplined in managing this, to avoid further economic destruction.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I think you responded to the wrong post/image buddy. Anyway; if you have a problem, it is with the expert risk analysts, not me.




The spiral chart, obviously. I made specific references to it. And if you failed to realise I have a problem with those 'expert analysts' after bluntly indicating that those analysts are clearly wrong, there's something wrong with your English or reading comprehension. If you agree with those analysts you're incredibly naive.


----------



## rederob (5 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> In reality the lack of overseas tourism coming into Australia may not have a massive effect, as it isn't a huge money generator, as opposed to the extra money Australians will be spending due to not being able to travel overseas.



*International *tourism direct spend was over $60B last year, and you can double that for total direct tourism spend. 
Not sure how much local tourism will occur in Australia this year as border closures will have a huge impact this year.  Gold Coast businesses are still doing it tough.


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## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The spiral chart, obviously. I made specific references to it. And if you failed to realise I have a problem with those 'expert analysts' after bluntly indicating that those analysts are clearly wrong, there's something wrong with your English or reading comprehension. If you agree with those analysts you're incredibly naive.




You made specific reference to the World Economic Forum research questions to senior risk analysts, but you responded to the S&P table for Chinese bank estimated credit costs. Which indicates to me that you are just firing off posts without thinking too much.

So we are supposed to take your opinion over a group of ~350 senior risk analysts? I always keep an open mind, but you have hardly swayed my opinion with your comments.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> The virus isn't out of control in NSW!
> 
> Point being that we must keep our domestic border closed so that we can get back to business and open up our restaurants, pubs, cinemas, and so on. Or we can just open up the border, and let the virus run out of control, that will risk overwhelming our hospital system, and force us back into full lockdown again which will cause more economic pain.




It depends what you mean by 'control'. Unless we are stupid or being facetious, obviously when we say the virus is out of control we mean in a global sense the genie is out of the bottle and we're not going to eradicate it. Obviously no one fails to realise that there are individual locations which don't have it, or only have it in isolated, contained cases. I'm not sure which of these reasons caused you to point out that it is 'under control' in NSW, but it's not even true anyway; the virus is not on a path to elimination in NSW. It could be done with extreme measures, but those measures are not being taken to control it, thus it's not under control, unless you simply mean that it's being kept at a low level, but then you're back to my original point which that the approach has no end game; without an elimination strategy you simply have a destructive state of semi lockdown which lasts indefinitely. Eventually you need to either eliminate it or go back to business as usual.

If we have the virus run out of control, lockdown becomes pointless because the virus is already everywhere. This would be far better than the current situation of indefinite semi lockdown because at least there's an end game of some sort. The 'flatten the curve' proposal was reasonable as long as the flattening was done to a reasonable extent, but we've now abandoned that strategy and we're being lead to be terrified of having a curve at all, and instead we are told to want this insane indefinite situation. You need an endgame; either choose to have business as usual, or flatten the curve, or eliminate the virus. I would opt for a reasonable flatten the curve game, much like Sweden has done, but I would accept either of the other two options even though they aren't my choice, because at least they're options with outcomes. What we are doing is an extremely destructive way of delaying the choice of one of these three possible options.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah this whole "the virus can't be controlled and lockdowns are therefore futile and it's also harmless therefore lockdowns are also pointless" narrative absolutely boggles my mind.
> 
> It absolutely can be controlled and it's absolutely harmful/fatal increasing exponentially with age.




Indeed, it's more harmful the older a person is. So much so that it almost exclusively kills people who are very close to dying anyway! Look at the average age of virus deaths and compare them to the average life expectancies of the countries those deaths take place in; they're almost exactly the same! This virus isn't effectively doing serious damage!


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> You made specific reference to the World Economic Forum research questions to senior risk analysts, but you responded to the S&P table for Chinese bank estimated credit costs. Which indicates to me that you are just firing off posts without thinking too much.




It's clear what I was responding to, you're just being obtuse. Stay on topic, don't be silly.



> So we are supposed to take your opinion over a group of ~350 senior risk analysts? I always keep an open mind, but you have hardly swayed my opinion with your comments.




Not at all, the fact that any reasonable person can see how absurd those figures are means any reasonable person can see that these so-called experts are either not actual experts, or they are for some reason being disingenuous. I don't for a moment expect anyone to take my word for it in this case.

Do you honestly think that there is only a 2.3% increase in the chance of global conflict? Seriously? I mean, I'm not asking you to blindly believe me, I'm pointing out that any attempt at critical thinking which anyone smarter than an average pin cushion is capable of shows this to be untrue. Same deal with most of the figures on your spiral chart. I'm encouraging people to compare their own rational thinking with what we are being told 'experts' are saying, in order to encourage people not to blindly follow garbage they're being told. Not everyone is as naive as you, you're clearly someone I can't convince to think independently, but perhaps someone closer to the fence may be encouraged into the correct side where people are brave enough to use critical thinking rather than blindly believe blatant lies.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's clear what I was responding to, you're just being obtuse. Stay on topic, don't be silly.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Let's take this one point at a time. First let's start with the spiral chart.

1. It is not my spiral chart

2. It is based on the response of ~350 senior risk analysts

3. I am not blind or naive at all; it is simply a chart that each individual can assess, believe or disregard as they please. In fact I embrace critical thinking.

4. If you wish to disregard expert opinion openly, at least make a comment on what you think is correct. So what is your percentage on the chances of an increase or decrease in long term military conflicts, not global conflict, and why?

*Global conflict suggests WW3!*


----------



## sptrawler (5 July 2020)

rederob said:


> *International *tourism direct spend was over $60B last year, and you can double that for total direct tourism spend.
> Not sure how much local tourism will occur in Australia this year as border closures will have a huge impact this year.  Gold Coast businesses are still doing it tough.



That is interesting, shows how figures can be rubbery.

8.7 million

Key findings. *Australia* saw record numbers of *international visitors* aged 15 years and over for the year to December *2019* with 8.7 million arrivals - 2% more than the previous year. This supported a 3% growth in total trip spend, which *reached* a record $45.4 billion.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/products/961B6B53B87C130ACA2574030010BD05

There is no doubt there are businesses that are doing it tough, but are they listed companies? or will their losses be to a degree absorbed with government spending? that is what I meant by localised pain, rather than a figure that is felt on the share market.
On the other hand, these businesses may have a dramatic effect on sectors of the share market and working out which sectors, is what I was meaning.

Meanwhile 9 million tourists come here, and 10 million Australians go overseas, so those 10 million may in reality holiday in Australia?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It depends what you mean by 'control'. Unless we are stupid or being facetious, obviously when we say the virus is out of control we mean in a global sense the genie is out of the bottle and we're not going to eradicate it. Obviously no one fails to realise that there are individual locations which don't have it, or only have it in isolated, contained cases. I'm not sure which of these reasons caused you to point out that it is 'under control' in NSW, but it's not even true anyway; the virus is not on a path to elimination in NSW. It could be done with extreme measures, but those measures are not being taken to control it, thus it's not under control, unless you simply mean that it's being kept at a low level, but then you're back to my original point which that the approach has no end game; without an elimination strategy you simply have a destructive state of semi lockdown which lasts indefinitely. Eventually you need to either eliminate it or go back to business as usual.
> 
> If we have the virus run out of control, lockdown becomes pointless because the virus is already everywhere. This would be far better than the current situation of indefinite semi lockdown because at least there's an end game of some sort. The 'flatten the curve' proposal was reasonable as long as the flattening was done to a reasonable extent, but we've now abandoned that strategy and we're being lead to be terrified of having a curve at all, and instead we are told to want this insane indefinite situation. You need an endgame; either choose to have business as usual, or flatten the curve, or eliminate the virus. I would opt for a reasonable flatten the curve game, much like Sweden has done, but I would accept either of the other two options even though they aren't my choice, because at least they're options with outcomes. What we are doing is an extremely destructive way of delaying the choice of one of these three possible options.




You come across as someone very young. Anyway, it is my opinion:

1. This is not a black and white conundrum, as such it is a very complicated solution that must be formulated for the best/optimal outcome.

2. I don't subscribe to the solutions that you propose of either it is complete business as usual with opening of international and domestic borders or complete shutdown.

3. We as nation have chosen the path of virus suppression many months ago and for us to radically change our strategy, it will come at a greater economic cost. You don't think the majority of people will lock themselves in and become hermits if people are dropping dead on our streets?


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> World Economic Forum surveyed 347 senior risk analysts on the post-COVID world:




Perhaps the most alarming bit is that rather a lot of the less likely things on that chart still seem pretty likely to occur.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Look at the worst hit countries, their average age of virus deaths is around the same age as their countries' average life expectancies.



What is the average age of those injured but not dead?

The ones with stuffed lungs or other organs and who'll need a transplant within the next few years?

And do we have enough organs to ensure all these people receive a transplant and that it's a quick procedure?

I don't know the answers there but those who suffer organ damage seem to be a bigger concern than those who die in the short term. We're going to be needing a lot of lungs and so on for years to come if this gets out of hand and we're going to need a lot of doctors and so on doing transplants and a lot of $ socialising the cost.


----------



## qldfrog (5 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> What is the average age of those injured but not dead?
> 
> The ones with stuffed lungs or other organs and who'll need a transplant within the next few years?
> 
> ...



@Smurf1976, i respect you highly and i know both you and i like facts and figures/ numbers.i really recommend you start digging actual casualty, stays in hospital and real severe illness numbers.
Age condition of the dead..
You will be happily surprised, trust me on that one..avoid the sensation numbers from both News and our ABC, look at the latest discoveries in term of people having had it and not registering on current 2 common tests: blood/nasal and you will discover that it is indeed very contagious but mostly benign, even counting scars lungs etc.
I was initially VERY scared as i was looking at the Chinese handling in real time, the more i know about it, the more serene i am.figures are good...even better under warmer climate and high vit D.
You work night shift in a cold and wet environment.. abattoir..yes be scares
You are 95 and hardly surviving..yes..not good 
But otherwise..
I let you DYOR and hopefully look at the figures objectively


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @Smurf1976, i respect you highly and i know both you and i like facts and figures/ numbers.i really recommend you start digging actual casualty, stays in hospital and real severe illness numbers.
> Age condition of the dead..
> You will be happily surprised, trust me on that one..avoid the sensation numbers from both News and our ABC, look at the latest discoveries in term of people having had it and not registering on current 2 common tests: blood/nasal and you will discover that it is indeed very contagious but mostly benign, even counting scars lungs etc.
> I was initially VERY scared as i was looking at the Chinese handling in real time, the more i know about it, the more serene i am.figures are good...even better under warmer climate and high vit D.
> ...




This virus can blowout within weeks, if we aren't careful, we are holding it by throat in Australia. Why should we let it go? Let it run rampant. We are now free to do business with limited restrictions in our states, with the exception of international and domestic travel. We are the envy of the world, with the way we have dealt with this.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Let's take this one point at a time. First let's start with the spiral chart.
> 
> 1. It is not my spiral chart




You posted it, I'm commenting on it. What's your point when you say you didn't produce it? Think about that. If you are dissociating from it, it shows that you are coming to terms with how flawed it is. Otherwise, why do you feel the need to point this out? I didn't say you produced it, no one here thought you did...



> 2. It is based on the response of ~350 senior risk analysts




Again, you demonstrate how naive you are; blindly trusting something because someone told you it's authoritative, in spite of how clearly flawed it is.



> 3. I am not blind or naive at all; it is simply a chart that each individual can assess, believe or disregard as they please. In fact I embrace critical thinking.




Heh heh heh heh heh. You literally follow "It's based on 350 senior risk analysts" as a standalone point of importance with "I am not blind or naive... I embrace critical thinking" despite the fact that last week's lawn clippings have enough critical thinking ability to see that your spiral chart is garbage, and point #2 demonstrates how naive you are, and point #1 shows that deep down you know it.



> 4. If you wish to disregard expert opinion openly, at least make a comment on what you think is correct.




Heh heh heh... I'm actually honestly now wondering if you're an adult of moderate intelligence. I literally already gave examples which were clearly wrong.



> So what is your percentage on the chances of an increase or decrease in long term military conflicts, not global conflict, and why?




Obviously it would be absurd of me to say the percentage is 58.32% higher, but just take a look at what's going on with global tensions, threats, etc etc, even here in Australia with China with threats being exchanged, Australian mainstream media taking blunt shots at China, etc etc, and consider that Australia is by no means the hottest part of the world in terms of potential conflict, and it's pretty obvious that the increase is more than two and a bit percent.

*



			Global conflict suggests WW3!
		
Click to expand...


*
Ooooh, you used bold text! Impressive! Give yourself a blue star sticker!  Next time try to use bold for something other than pointing out that you spotted a largely irrelevant implication though.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You posted it, I'm commenting on it. What's your point when you say you didn't produce it? Think about that. If you are dissociating from it, it shows that you are coming to terms with how flawed it is. Otherwise, why do you feel the need to point this out? I didn't say you produced it, no one here thought you did...
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1. Yes; you said I produced it. I produce many things from innovative ways to burn waste to new financial products. That particular chart is not mine and if I did I would claim it, I am not scared of you or anyone else to claim what is mine.

2. Again; you think you are better than these risk analysts, but have clearly stated that you disagree without any sound or reasonable intelligent response as to why they are wrong. In fact, you are getting mixed up between the terms of global conflict and military conflict.

3. I never said that I agreed, merely just stated that this is their response.

4. Where is your alternative response to the expert response? You don't have one other than stating that they are wrong. It is like me saying that political analysts are wrong with predicating a Clinton victory in 2016, yet I stated that Trump would win; a clear and precise alternative to expert opinion. You have done nothing of the sort.

5. Are you talking about percentages of an increase in military conflict or the percentage of increase global conflict; there is a huge difference and it looks like you are having difficulty in differentiating between the two.


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## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> You come across as someone very young.




Oh, you! *giggles* Flattery will get you everywhere! <3




> Anyway, it is my opinion:
> 
> 1. This is not a black and white conundrum, as such it is a very complicated solution that must be formulated for the best/optimal outcome.
> 
> 2. I don't subscribe to the solutions that you propose of either it is complete business as usual with opening of international and domestic borders or complete shutdown.




1. Numbered points in this case are stupid.

2. I'll use numbered points to demonstrate to you how stupid it is to use them unnecessarily.

3. Your first point is irrelevant since no one suggested otherwise.

4. It's comical that in your second point you feel the need to say you disagree with something I didn't actually say, especially when my own preferred option which I very briefly described is neither of the two options you imagined I said were the only two!



> 3. We as nation have chosen the path of virus suppression many months ago and for us to radically change our strategy, it will come at a greater economic cost. You don't think the majority of people will lock themselves in and become hermits if people are dropping dead on our streets?




5. Okay, where to start with this... firstly, we didn't choose this as a nation. We didn't vote on it. Many people disagree. The government made a decision, the media told people to go along with it, we were literally told via media that we had to accept giving up rights we used to take for granted, and most people either willingly or grudgingly complied. This is not in line with your incorrect assertion of "We as a nation have chosen the path of virus suppression"

Okay, you then say "Many months ago". I arrived in Australia at the end of February (intending to stay for about 2 weeks... ouch). In March we could still come and go, decisions hadn't been made as you say, especially as a nation! 

6. Dry your eyes and look at reality, love. Nowhere have people been "dropping dead on the streets". You're being melodramatic. Across the globe we see a huge range of strategies from business as usual to extreme lockdowns. Through all of this, even in the worst affected countries, it's not a case of mass deaths in any meaningful way. Even with zero mitigation efforts, it's not like this is going to cause a notable reduction in the population. Look at the worst countries like Spain, USA, UK. They've only had around 500 deaths per million people in around 6 months and the vast majority of those deaths were people around the end of their life expectancy (literally around half already over it!) and the vast majority of younger ones were already critically ill, often with terminal diseases. In all those cases, the death rate has greatly reduced (the vulnerable people already close to death who were susceptible have mostly already died), even in cases where the infection rate is still increasing, showing that even if more people get it, which in many cases is actually happening, the death rate won't be an issue.

7. This is point number 7 of 7.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Oh, you! *giggles* Flattery will get you everywhere! <3
> 
> 
> 
> ...




This discussion has obviously reached an impasse. You can advise our government and I will just trade the fallout now.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> What is the average age of those injured but not dead?
> 
> The ones with stuffed lungs or other organs and who'll need a transplant within the next few years?
> 
> ...




Haha! "Injured!"

Dry your eyes and relax a little. People get 'permanent lung damage' from the flu, common cold, etc. It's really not that bad. Extremely few people will have lung damage which is an issue. Not to belittle the unfortunate cases which will exist, but they're nothing compared to the suicides, depression, loss of business, jobs, economic damage (which itself causes deaths and suffering), etc etc caused by the shutdowns.

Other organs? Transplants? You do know this is a respiratory bug, right? Not the fictional version of Ebola in the movie Outbreak.

Consider that in the worst hit countries which have already had the big wave and thus won't have a second wave, haven't had the problems you're worrying about. You're literally advocating big problems (lockdowns) for the sake of preventing fictional problems (ie massive exaggerations of real problems).


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Haha! "Injured!"
> 
> Dry your eyes and relax a little. People get 'permanent lung damage' from the flu, common cold, etc. It's really not that bad. Extremely few people will have lung damage which is an issue. Not to belittle the unfortunate cases which will exist, but they're nothing compared to the suicides, depression, loss of business, jobs, economic damage (which itself causes deaths and suffering), etc etc caused by the shutdowns.
> 
> ...




I don't intend to waste my time with people that aren't interested in proper discussion.

Please advise our government, so I can trade and invest accordingly.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Haha! "Injured!"
> 
> Dry your eyes and relax a little. People get 'permanent lung damage' from the flu, common cold, etc. It's really not that bad. Extremely few people will have lung damage which is an issue. Not to belittle the unfortunate cases which will exist, but they're nothing compared to the suicides, depression, loss of business, jobs, economic damage (which itself causes deaths and suffering), etc etc caused by the shutdowns.
> 
> ...




Yep, you know better than all of us. We are here to listen to you on how best to deal with this now.

Please, don't stop; tell us what to do. I will forward to our National Cabinet of Ministers!


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> People get 'permanent lung damage' from the flu, common cold, etc. It's really not that bad. Extremely few people will have lung damage which is an issue.




Unless you're directly involved working on this then neither of us knows for sure.

That said, well so far as has been reported the vast majority of the population has not been infected by this virus and yet already quite a few cases of lung damage etc have turned up. How many more cases are as yet undiagnosed is anyone's guess but it's very unlikely to be zero.

I claim no medical qualifications but it's commonsense that if a few people being infected produces identified cases of damage then there's almost certainly going to be more cases which haven't yet been identified. Likewise if we have more people infected then we'll have more cases of damage. That's just commonsense, the only real unknown is the magnitude of the problem.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> 1. Yes; you said I produced it. I produce many things from innovative ways to burn waste to new financial products. That particular chart is not mine and if I did I would claim it, I am not scared of you or anyone else to claim what is mine.




Nope, I never said you produced it, and I can't see anywhere that I may have inadvertently implied it, unless you mean when I called it "your" chart, but surely if I say "Your computer/car/etc" you wouldn't assume I meant that I thought you constructed your own computer/car/etc

Hahahahaha! Why would you feel the need to say that you're not scared of me? It's not like I was planning to come to your home, steal your roses and eat all your macaroni and cheese... or am I?



> 2. Again; you think you are better than these risk analysts, but have clearly stated that you disagree without any sound or reasonable intelligent response as to why they are wrong. In fact, you are getting mixed up between the terms of global conflict and military conflict.




I'm obviously either smarter or more honest (I strongly believe it's the latter). You again demonstrate how naive you are, believing figures despite how absurd they are, simply because someone told you they came from experts! If you want to say 'global conflict' means any form of conflict rather than military conflict, then the odds go up even higher and your 350 experts are even more stupid and/or dishonest, because obviously tensions are increased because of this situation and no dolt is stupid enough to fail to see that we're still going to have forms of non military conflict in 18 months because of it. I suppose I just said you're not a dolt, because you say that you do believe it, and I said no dolt does.



> 3. I never said that I agreed, merely just stated that this is their response.




Heh heh heh. You bang on saying "But it came from 350 experts!!!" as though that makes it meaningful, then dismiss it. I mean, hey, shoot down your own point, I guess if you contradict yourself I will agree with you sometimes as I do here, but flip flopping is silly.



> 4. Where is your alternative response to the expert response? You don't have one other than stating that they are wrong. It is like me saying that political analysts are wrong with predicating a Clinton victory in 2016, yet I stated that Trump would win; a clear and precise alternative to expert opinion. You have done nothing of the sort.




I discussed a couple of examples which are blatantly obvious. To to through them all, given there are dozens, would literally require several pages and multiple hours. It's absurd of you to suggest I should do it. If you want me to discuss one or two in addition to the ones I did pick out, by all means ask for them specifically, but don't expect an epic tome. I could pick out a few which are perhaps realistic and I wouldn't argue with, such as IT breakdown



> 5. Are you talking about percentages of an increase in military conflict or the percentage of increase global conflict; there is a huge difference and it looks like you are having difficulty in differentiating between the two.




The chart stated it as a probability of increase, not an amount of increase. The title of the chart is literally "LIKELIHOOD". I totally agree that it's a stupid chart, I think I've made that clear, but that's what it says.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Yep, you know better than all of us. We are here to listen to you on how best to deal with this now.
> 
> Please, don't stop; tell us what to do. I will forward to our National Cabinet of Ministers!




See, I haven't said I know everything about everything. What you're employing is a debating tactic people use when it's clear they're wrong. It's a bit of a bait and switch technique. Rather than saying "Yep, I was wrong about that, thanks for the discussion" you go for some nonsensical distraction, pretending that I'm saying that I know everything, and since that's obviously untrue, we should forget everything I've said, including where I've shot down your arguments. By all means if you think I have something wrong point it out, and hey, when people actually do that and I have made an error or they teach me something I'm happy to thank them, but stick to honest debating which maintain integrity.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Nope, I never said you produced it, and I can't see anywhere that I may have inadvertently implied it, unless you mean when I called it "your" chart, but surely if I say "Your computer/car/etc" you wouldn't assume I meant that I thought you constructed your own computer/car/etc
> 
> Hahahahaha! Why would you feel the need to say that you're not scared of me? It's not like I was planning to come to your home, steal your roses and eat all your macaroni and cheese... or am I?
> 
> ...




Steal? To steal my ideas you must be a multi-billionaire.

I never said the chart was stupid, you have said that, again. You must be having a conversation with yourself.

Sorry, you have to go on ignore soon. You are breaching tolerance levels of stupidity.


----------



## over9k (5 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is interesting, shows how figures can be rubbery.
> 
> 8.7 million
> 
> ...




Yes that's the thing about this virus and the responses to it - most big companies have been able to access/raise the capital necessary to ride things out through mechanisms like corporate bonds, which small businesses generally can't do. Ergo, the little guys get wiped out and whatever business remains goes to the big players.



Sdajii said:


> Indeed, it's more harmful the older a person is. So much so that it almost exclusively kills people who are very close to dying anyway! Look at the average age of virus deaths and compare them to the average life expectancies of the countries those deaths take place in; they're almost exactly the same! This virus isn't effectively doing serious damage!




Honestly man, the other guys are right - you do sound like a child. Or a loon. Your entire post can be paraphrased as "We should let everyone get it because it only kills people who were close to dying anyway".

It's nuts.

And it's also moot - governments that have controlled it are not going to just let everyone get it. We're not here discussing what the consequences should be, we're here discussing what they ARE.

How about we all get back to that and leave our personal opinions vis a vie what should be done out of things?


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Unless you're directly involved working on this then neither of us knows for sure.




This is nonsense. I've never worked as a lawyer but I can look up any law I want to. I've never worked in building construction but that doesn't mean I have no access to construction techniques. 



> That said, well so far as has been reported the vast majority of the population has not been infected by this virus and yet already quite a few cases of lung damage etc have turned up. How many more cases are as yet undiagnosed is anyone's guess but it's very unlikely to be zero.




You do realise there are literally more than TEN MILLION identified cases of this virus and it's the most intensely studied virus in history, right? I mean... what exactly do you need to count as a sample? Ten million isn't enough? Keep in mind that the majority of cases go literally unnoticed with most people literally not even realising they have the virus, and those with no symptoms don't get lung damage. This is not a chronic disease, so it's not like those ten million cases are going to last several years and develop issues later; the majority of them have already recovered. We have many millions of recovered cases. We have a good grasp of what's going on. 



> I claim no medical qualifications but it's commonsense that if a few people being infected produces identified cases of damage then there's almost certainly going to be more cases which haven't yet been identified. Likewise if we have more people infected then we'll have more cases of damage. That's just commonsense, the only real unknown is the magnitude of the problem.




It makes sense that since it's a trivial issue per capita so far, it's going to be a trivial issue per capita going forward, in fact, prognosis for infected people is rapidly improving. Just as an example, infection rates are still rapidly increasing, but the death rate is increasing and not just as a percentage of new cases but in most countries at a total number, and globally the death rate is very stable despite the number of cases continuing to climb, with average case severity dropping rapidly, presumably due to the most vulnerable already being knocked out, sampling improvement (the situation looked worse before because of sampling error but is improving as sampling improves and we get a better idea of the true situation, improved patient management as we learn more about the virus, and I believe that we're seeing mutation making the virus less destructive (I expected this to happen, and it's in line with what you'd expect of a new virus - a less lethal, more mild virus can spread to more people and be more successful. This one started more lethal than optimal for a non chronic respiratory virus). Without a doubt, the more time goes on, the more we learn about the virus, and the more mild we realise it to be.


----------



## over9k (5 July 2020)

Let's assume that's true - governments are not going to just reopen everything and let everyone get it. They are not. 

With that in mind, let's move on to the actual consequences, not our personal opinions of government actions. Our personal opinions change precisely nothing.


----------



## Sdajii (5 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Steal? To steal my ideas you must be a multi-billionaire.
> 
> I never said the chart was stupid, you have said that, again. You must be having a conversation with yourself.
> 
> Sorry, you have to go on ignore soon. You are breaching tolerance levels of stupidity.




Who stole what? What are you on about?

You missed a reference to your own comment showing that the chart didn't make sense.

Ah, the ignore button, the tool of the coward. You have multiple choices; you could respond to my posts in a meaningful way and have a discussion, you could post something like this valueless one, ignoring the substance and forcing a stop to anything meaningful, you could simply not respond, or you could use the coward tool and blissfully post misinformation unchallenged. Your choice I suppose!


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (5 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> See, I haven't said I know everything about everything. What you're employing is a debating tactic people use when it's clear they're wrong. It's a bit of a bait and switch technique. Rather than saying "Yep, I was wrong about that, thanks for the discussion" you go for some nonsensical distraction, pretending that I'm saying that I know everything, and since that's obviously untrue, we should forget everything I've said, including where I've shot down your arguments. By all means if you think I have something wrong point it out, and hey, when people actually do that and I have made an error or they teach me something I'm happy to thank them, but stick to honest debating which maintain integrity.




I am not wrong at all; I have posted a chart from Visual Capitalist; that got it form the World Economic Forum; who asked senior risk analysts their opinion.

You have claimed that you know more than them without any evidence or a possible lead for us to consider.

Sure I am willing for someone to say the experts are wrong, however show me what you've got!

You have nothing but long, baseless and incoherent rants.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Who stole what? What are you on about?
> 
> You missed a reference to your own comment showing that the chart didn't make sense.
> 
> Ah, the ignore button, the tool of the coward. You have multiple choices; you could respond to my posts in a meaningful way and have a discussion, you could post something like this valueless one, ignoring the substance and forcing a stop to anything meaningful, you could simply not respond, or you could use the coward tool and blissfully post misinformation unchallenged. Your choice I suppose!




You have claimed that you know more than them without any evidence or a possible lead for us to consider.

Sure I am willing for someone to say the experts are wrong, however show me what you've got!

You have nothing but long, baseless and incoherent rants.


----------



## over9k (6 July 2020)

You two are arguing about a completely moot point. What any of us think should be done changes precisely nothing. 

This thread is not about personal opinions reference what should be done, only what the consequences of what is being done are going to be. 

If anyone reckons they can make an argument to the realisation of a benign nature of the virus resulting in lockdowns being lifted, go ahead. But I'd say there'd be a snowball's chance in hell of that happening. 

Otherwise, this needs to stop.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Who stole what? What are you on about?
> 
> You missed a reference to your own comment showing that the chart didn't make sense.
> 
> Ah, the ignore button, the tool of the coward. You have multiple choices; you could respond to my posts in a meaningful way and have a discussion, you could post something like this valueless one, ignoring the substance and forcing a stop to anything meaningful, you could simply not respond, or you could use the coward tool and blissfully post misinformation unchallenged. Your choice I suppose!




Not sure what you're on about with stealing.

You raised it, not me.

Posters are the creators and owners of their content on this forum, from what I am aware.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You two are arguing about a completely moot point. What any of us think should be done changes precisely nothing.
> 
> This thread is not about personal opinions reference what should be done, only what the consequences of what is being done are going to be.
> 
> ...




This whole thread has been derailed now.

I own all my comments on Joe's property. Like parking a car in a driveway.


----------



## Sdajii (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Honestly man, the other guys are right - you do sound like a child. Or a loon. Your entire post can be paraphrased as "We should let everyone get it because it only kills people who were close to dying anyway".
> 
> It's nuts.




People on the 'extreme lockdown' side may wish to see my posts in that way because they don't like them, but I've never actually said that. The fact that I think you're too far on the paranoia side doesn't mean I'm over on the extreme opposite side saying "Let's all lick each others' faces", I'm somewhere in the middle. By all means flatten the curve to a reasonable extent, but the current strategy makes no sense.

Consider this (I've already said it but you've missed it), the current strategy of mild lockdown is not possible to continue forever. This means that inevitably it will pass through the community, it's just a question of when. This was what the government was telling us until only a month or so ago! Remember 'flatten the curve'? That's literally what the government was telling you until recently, and it meant that everyone was going to get it, that was inevitable, we just want to make sure that we don't all get it at the same time. That's what the government was saying, not me. Now what they're doing is just maintaining it at such a low level that the curve will never actually play out. There is no end game. The virus won't be eliminated, it won't go through the community, we're just going to live in mild paranoia indefinitely. The virus turned out to be more mild than they expected, both in terms of contagion and severity. Do you want to have lockdowns and restrictions forever? Presumably not. So, we can't go on like this forever and we need to have that flattened curve (or, hey, we could make it a sharp curve with absolute business as usual, which few people advocate and I'm not among them).

It's really simple; this virus isn't going to be 100% erradicated. If we go back to any sort of normality, which eventually we must, we're going to have a curve. What we are doing at the moment is simply an extraordinarily expensive way to delay the inevitable, with no benefit. 



> And it's also moot - governments that have controlled it are not going to just let everyone get it. We're not here discussing what the consequences should be, we're here discussing what they ARE.




The government inevitably is going to let us get exposed to it, because they can only afford double dole and jobkeeper and no tourism dollars, etc etc etc for a finite time, after which we're going to be forced into some form of normality and it will spread. It is inevitable.



> How about we all get back to that and leave our personal opinions vis a vie what should be done out of things?




Yay! I'll only talk about stuff you want to talk about if you only talk about stuff I want you to talk about!


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This is nonsense. I've never worked as a lawyer but I can look up any law I want to. I've never worked in building construction but that doesn't mean I have no access to construction techniques.




Looking up a reference to established fact is something anyone can do sure.

Obtaining accurate information regarding an evolving situation requires inside knowledge by its very nature. Only real exception is if it's plainly obvious (eg bridge has fallen down and you can see it with your own eyes) or if it's something like weather where the general public can access live data from weather stations and see for themselves that it's 50 degrees or whatever the issue of concern happens to be.

For anything else, the public is reliant upon someone intentionally releasing information and that by its very nature creates some time lag.


----------



## over9k (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Yay! I'll only talk about stuff you want to talk about if you only talk about stuff I want you to talk about!




I now genuinely can't tell if you're deliberately being obtuse or are just stupid. Threads have topics. The thread isn't what we WANT to talk about, it's what we think the consequences of the outbreak are going to be. You want to talk about what SHOULD be done, do it in the thread which is for that.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> People on the 'extreme lockdown' side may wish to see my posts in that way because they don't like them, but I've never actually said that. The fact that I think you're too far on the paranoia side doesn't mean I'm over on the extreme opposite side saying "Let's all lick each others' faces", I'm somewhere in the middle. By all means flatten the curve to a reasonable extent, but the current strategy makes no sense.
> 
> Consider this (I've already said it but you've missed it), the current strategy of mild lockdown is not possible to continue forever. This means that inevitably it will pass through the community, it's just a question of when. This was what the government was telling us until only a month or so ago! Remember 'flatten the curve'? That's literally what the government was telling you until recently, and it meant that everyone was going to get it, that was inevitable, we just want to make sure that we don't all get it at the same time. That's what the government was saying, not me. Now what they're doing is just maintaining it at such a low level that the curve will never actually play out. There is no end game. The virus won't be eliminated, it won't go through the community, we're just going to live in mild paranoia indefinitely. The virus turned out to be more mild than they expected, both in terms of contagion and severity. Do you want to have lockdowns and restrictions forever? Presumably not. So, we can't go on like this forever and we need to have that flattened curve (or, hey, we could make it a sharp curve with absolute business as usual, which few people advocate and I'm not among them).
> 
> ...




Australia doesn't want to follow the standard world virus response, we will chart our own path to get through this global crisis.

END OF STORY!


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> This thread is not about personal opinions reference what should be done, only what the consequences of what is being done are going to be.




Strongly agreed and that could be said for many discussions.

In the context of an individual making decisions about investing or trading, what's actually happening and will plausibly happen going forward and the consequences of that is the relevant issue not what could've been.


----------



## over9k (6 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Strongly agreed and that could be said for many discussions.
> 
> In the context of an individual making decisions about investing or trading, what's actually happening and will plausibly happen going forward and the consequences of that is the relevant issue not what could've been.




So with that in mind, this is the only thing he's posted that he actually should have/is worth responding to in several pages: 



Sdajii said:


> The government inevitably is going to let us get exposed to it, because they can only afford double dole and jobkeeper and no tourism dollars, etc etc etc for a finite time, after which we're going to be forced into some form of normality and it will spread. It is inevitable.




What I'm seeing is everyone reopening to everyone except victoria. So far there are precisely zero even so much as whispers of this changing.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> So with that in mind, this is the only thing he's posted that he actually should have/is worth responding to in several pages:
> 
> 
> 
> What I'm seeing is everyone reopening to everyone except victoria. So far there are precisely zero even so much as whispers of this changing.




Let it go; many trolls around; looking for a response. We are genuine in our discussion. Smurf is good, despite our nuclear disagreement, HAHA.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Oh, you! *giggles* Flattery will get you everywhere! <3
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I have said some stupid things in my younger life, with no thought or knowledge; however what I have said to you tonight is absolutely true in my belief.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

Locking down towers in Victoria, 3rd day now, as reported: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-04/victoria-to-lockdown-nine-public-housing-towers/12423012?nw=0


----------



## over9k (6 July 2020)

Yeah vic's going to have to lock down for another couple of months longer than the rest of the country. Sucks to be them.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah vic's going to have to lock down for another couple of months longer than the rest of the country. Sucks to be them.




Massive to lockdown those towers.


----------



## over9k (6 July 2020)

Security should be pretty easy on account of only a couple of ways in/out of them. It's the logistics of supplying the residents that'll be the hard part.


----------



## Klogg (6 July 2020)

MrChow said:


> *https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/tre...says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again.html*




I agree with their treasury secretary. Shutting down the economy is stupidly expensive.

Sweden's approach is much better than just about anyone else's. Sure, they have more deaths per person, but those lives have cost other economies millions of dollars per year of life. That far exceeds the productive capacity of just about any individual.
In other words, we're sacrificing our young to save our old. We may as well go to war...


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Security should be pretty easy on account of only a couple of ways in/out of them. It's the logistics of supplying the residents that'll be the hard part.




These residents will be screaming to get out after a few days.


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You two are arguing about a completely moot point. What any of us think should be done changes precisely nothing.
> 
> This thread is not about personal opinions reference what should be done, only what the consequences of what is being done are going to be.
> 
> ...



Last point i agree, just sad that it has reached a point where neither @Smurf1976 , @over9k  or  @Chronos-Plutus  even bother to try to look at figures in places where they are available:and trusted
Switzerland, France,Germany,Spain
This will give you the latest development in actual infection rate, people actually falling sick and actual death rate.todays figures are not last months one by far, yet noone was resurrected
I will just say the more you learn the less worried you get..
Put in proportion it is bad but not sure it is worse than H1N1, and economically outside the lockdown, should be more benign as H1N1 was killing younger more economically valuable people.
Just do you own research figure based and not in news headlines but in studies and hospital medical f
you will be surprised in a positive way
Be aware, be informed.


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

Actually, looking at the hysteria present in people who are usually more level minded, @over9k might have a point in his trading..the market is at least partly public mood


----------



## SirRumpole (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Otherwise, this needs to stop.




What needs to stop, the virus or the lockdowns ?


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> I agree with their treasury secretary. Shutting down the economy is stupidly expensive.
> 
> Sweden's approach is much better than just about anyone else's. Sure, they have more deaths per person, but those lives have cost other economies millions of dollars per year of life. That far exceeds the productive capacity of just about any individual.
> In other words, we're sacrificing our young to save our old. We may as well go to war...



Can not be truer, and Australia has nothing to be proud of, we have backed ourself in a corner...
I am really looking forward to the announcement of the fake vaccine.this is our only way out.
At least i do not need to be emotional, my life is not threatened economically..well a bit when Australia is sent down the drain...
Nor medically as i am below 70 and healthy.
I believe the response on the ASF is partly linked to the age of the constituents...


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Can not be truer, and Australia has nothing to be proud of, we have backed ourself in a corner...
> I am really looking forward to the announcement of the fake vaccine.this is our only way out.
> At least i do not need to be emotional, my life is not threatened economically..well a bit when Australia is sent down the drain...
> Nor medically as i am below 70 and healthy.
> I believe the response on the ASF is partly linked to the age of the constituents...




A few of us here aren't that old; we are in our mid 30s.

We will be the generation that pays off the spending spree.


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> A few of us here aren't that old; we are in our mid 30s.



In that case, i i c not understand your reaction: you are not personally scared yet act as if?
I mean the irrational side
We can agree disagree on smooth the curve/eradication but facts and figures ..the real ones are important..if you are in your 30s they are meaningful
Anyway, will not go into another fight as per last night


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## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

A different point of view:https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/a62a8cfc22cbab0cb43dabce9d48da84
Read content not clickbait title;-)


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## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> What needs to stop, the virus or the lockdowns ?



In july2020, this is the question, you nail it,economically AND death numbers wise


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## Chronos-Plutus (6 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> In that case, i i c not understand your reaction: you are not personally scared yet act as if?
> I mean the irrational side
> We can agree disagree on smooth the curve/eradication but facts and figures ..the real ones are important..if you are in your 30s they are meaningful
> Anyway, will not go into another fight as per last night




I have no problem with reasoned debate and discussion.

I should be pushing to open up our domestic and international borders ASAP; because it is my generation that will be paying back the economic costs over my lifetime. However, I think we have past the point of no return with the suppression strategy, and believe we should be disciplined now to follow it through.


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## qldfrog (6 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I have no problem with reasoned debate and discussion.
> 
> I should be pushing to open up our domestic and international borders ASAP; because it is my generation that will be paying back the economic costs over my lifetime. However, I think we have past the point of no return with the suppression strategy, and believe we should be disciplined now to follow it through.



You see as point of non return, in a way i agree ..i translate that as being backed in the corner.it is not z given it can be eradicated: my belief of the direct link between vit d/sun exposure and temperature is not very optimistic with the southern states..but it could be done.. doable..not given but maybe..
But then what..and my suggestion is the fake vaccine as there is no way we can stay isolated for years...
A fake vaccine, prevention, remove media focus and a few hundred deaths a year as was already happening with the flu..life goes on
So invest in CSL


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## over9k (6 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Actually, looking at the hysteria present in people who are usually more level minded, @over9k might have a point in his trading..the market is at least partly public mood



I've made about 20% in the past three weeks simply trading volatility.

Said volatility is going to continue. It would have spiked on friday if not for the virus data dampening the employment data somewhat. I'm kind of tempted to start a thread called "trading the chop". We have a "trading the trend" and "trading the bounce" already.


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## jbocker (6 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> We will be the generation that pays off the spending spree.



...then our kids generation pays off ours. Just to continue your 'sentence'. Financial institutions will ensure that happens.


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## wabullfrog (6 July 2020)

ABC was reporting a NSW/VIC border closure may come into effect soon.


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## over9k (6 July 2020)

Tomorrow midnight, it's on the news now. Completely expected.


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## basilio (6 July 2020)

Impact of corona virus on young people is way out of proportion to most others in the community.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-06/generation-covid-faces-an-uncertain-future/12388308?nw=0


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## Knobby22 (6 July 2020)

41 year old Broadway actor dies leaving behind wife and kids.
https://www.theage.com.au/culture/c...m-covid-19-complications-20200706-p559ef.html


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## Klogg (6 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I have no problem with reasoned debate and discussion.
> 
> I should be pushing to open up our domestic and international borders ASAP; because it is my generation that will be paying back the economic costs over my lifetime. However, I think we have past the point of no return with the suppression strategy, and believe we should be disciplined now to follow it through.




Sunk cost fallacy.

If it made sense to stay open, then it makes sense to open up now. The cost we've incurred to date is there, the damage is done.


Take a look at the lockdown of public housing in Nth Melbourne/Flemington. Whilst I despise the coddling of specific communities (especially if they complain/protest), this community copped the exact opposite.
If we're going to be told we can't go outside, we may as well stop living.

Italy is the natural rebuttal of my position. However, the vast majority of those dying were above 80. I don't like to see people dying, but they've outlived most other humans. Again, sacrificing our young to save our old.


As for articles like this:
https://www.theage.com.au/culture/c...m-covid-19-complications-20200706-p559ef.html

This is the media pushing their suppression narrative. Pick the few exceptions of people under 70 dying, and report on it to scare the masses. 
They always talk negatively of Sweden's approach, possibly because of political bias (or other reasons, I really don't know).


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## Knobby22 (6 July 2020)

Let's sully this discussion with facts.

The data is provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:


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## wayneL (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Let's sully this discussion with facts.
> 
> The data is provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:
> 
> View attachment 105642



....and?


----------



## Klogg (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Let's sully this discussion with facts.
> 
> The data is provided by New York City Health as of May 13, 2020:
> 
> View attachment 105642



99 of 15233 deaths are from people with no underlying conditions - seems very, very low.
Unfortunately, I can't find the total number of recoveries by this point, so it's a meaningless figure on its own.

EDIT: If you remove 'underlying conditions unknown', the denominator bcomes 11470. Still rather low.


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## Klogg (6 July 2020)

over9k said:


> I now genuinely can't tell if you're deliberately being obtuse or are just stupid. Threads have topics. The thread isn't what we WANT to talk about, it's what we think the consequences of the outbreak are going to be. You want to talk about what SHOULD be done, do it in the thread which is for that.



To understand the implications, you should also play out possible scenarios and their economic implications.

So if the US changes tact and decides to do X instead of Y, then the discussion is valid.


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## Knobby22 (6 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> ....and?




Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.


----------



## Klogg (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
> Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.



Absolute figures aren't very useful. Need percentages.


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## Sdajii (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
> Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.




No one is ever totally safe.

Those on the paranoia side are only looking at the deaths caused by the virus, not weighing up the death and harm caused by the mitigation measures. The cure is far worse than the disease, but the fearful side is just looking at reducing as many virus deaths as possible, at any cost, even if it causes more death to save those people.

They're not even considering the fact that we're just kicking the can down the road. In the Australian scenario it's not even a case of the cure being worse than the disease, it's a case of a delay strategy which is worse than the disease being employed, before the disease then does its thing anyway, but worse. A devastated economy makes the healthcare system worse off, meaning that it won't be dealing with things as well. Add to that the alarmism fatigue and we're going to have quite a sharp curve; the economy can't keep double dole and jobkeeper forever, and people are going to be fed up with being locked down and stop taking the rules seriously. Eventually the virus will go through the community, we can't stop that. The only benefit in the delay will be the improvements in treatment methods, but that will be more than countered by the lower availability of funding. Sooner or later we have to allow people to live. Sooner or later we need to have that flattened curve (or a sharp curve). The flatter the curve the better, but it needs to actually happen or we are living with our hands tied behind our backs forever.

And to those who say I'm talking off topic, having our hands tied behind our backs forever is directly economically relevant. Currently our strategy is to handicap ourselves logistically and economically for as long as possible, and then have the virus spread anyway.


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## macca (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
> Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.




New York is the worst place to be for CV19 please consider.....................

Very little opportunity to get sunshine, fresh air and exercise.

Apartment living and subway, always very close together with constant interaction with others.

Just been through winter, no chance of desirable levels of Vit D

Many people have darker skin which means they need extra sunlight to achieve desired levels of Vit D

The perfect storm really, here in Oz we are fortunate that we have our lifestyle but we cannot afford to lock down again. 

We need to be proactive and GIVE everyone a large bottle of Vit D if they will take it. 

If not, then tell everyone to get out in the sunshine and grab some rays, we need to give the general populous a feeling of positivity. A feeling that they are doing something to defend themselves and their family from this virus


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## rederob (6 July 2020)

macca said:


> New York is the worst place to be for CV19 please consider.....................
> 
> Very little opportunity to get sunshine, fresh air and exercise.
> 
> ...



There are many cities far worse off than New York that never had anywhere near the problems. Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo quickly come to mind.  That's not to mention a dozen or so cities in China.
It's all good and well to promote exercise and a balanced diet, including Vitamin D, but there are no valid correlations that support your ideas.
The USA has been enjoying several months of sunshine now and their COV19 rates are the highest on record.


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## Knobby22 (6 July 2020)

The purpose of the stats is to show the death based on age. I expect other USA cities would have similar results with regard proportions.

Just pointing out the reality. 

For those saying we should now deliberately let the virus go loose, I note that countries that have done so, Iran, USA,  are still shutting their economies. I am unconvinced at this stage that they have taken the best route.The next month in the USA will let us see the results.

And you look at Western Australia, which will soon be reopening their e economy, compare that to the USA. Who is doing better?

 With the USA and many other parts of the world, they may as well spread it. With us, it's not so obvious. And it's your life being risked.


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## over9k (6 July 2020)

News story on vic being cut off from everywhere else


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## Sdajii (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The purpose of the stats is to show the death based on age. I expect other USA cities would have similar results with regard proportions.
> 
> Just pointing out the reality.
> 
> ...




You're cherry picking silly examples. We all know the USA is experiencing an insane amount of infighting and political turmoil which means you can't apply what's happening there to anything else, it's its own unique case. Iran? C'mon, that's also a dysfunctional mess with its own crazy stuff going on. Sweden is a good example of a place with a realistic 'flatten the curve' approach. In time I'm sure we'll see that prove to have been a good way to deal with it, while countries like Australia while were considered to have done well based solely on low Chinavirus figures experience the reality of a population which still hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus must either remain locked down or have the virus go through after economic devastation. 

Comparing WA to the USA is just absurd. WA is one of the most sparsely inhabited large regions of land on the planet. If that's the best comparison you can pull it shows you're clutching at straws.


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## Knobby22 (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're cherry picking silly examples. We all know the USA is experiencing an insane amount of infighting and political turmoil which means you can't apply what's happening there to anything else, it's its own unique case. Iran? C'mon, that's also a dysfunctional mess with its own crazy stuff going on. Sweden is a good example of a place with a realistic 'flatten the curve' approach. In time I'm sure we'll see that prove to have been a good way to deal with it, while countries like Australia while were considered to have done well based solely on low Chinavirus figures experience the reality of a population which still hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus must either remain locked down or have the virus go through after economic devastation.
> 
> Comparing WA to the USA is just absurd. WA is one of the most sparsely inhabited large regions of land on the planet. If that's the best comparison you can pull it shows you're clutching at straws.



But if we have a vaccine soon?


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## IFocus (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> And you look at Western Australia, which will soon be reopening their e economy, compare that to the USA. Who is doing better?





Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan  will have statues raised for him.


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## wayneL (6 July 2020)

I officially have concussion for slamming my head on my desk.

SMDH


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## wabullfrog (6 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan  will have statues raised for him.




Yep, not much accommodation available down in Albany for the school holidays. Cafes look to be very busy as well during the last few weeks.


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## Dona Ferentes (6 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Here in WA, premiere McGowan  will have *statues *raised for him.



dangerous if current behaviours roll on


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## IFocus (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're cherry picking silly examples. We all know the USA is experiencing an insane amount of infighting and political turmoil which means you can't apply what's happening there to anything else, it's its own unique case. Iran? C'mon, that's also a dysfunctional mess with its own crazy stuff going on. Sweden is a good example of a place with a realistic 'flatten the curve' approach. In time I'm sure we'll see that prove to have been a good way to deal with it, while countries like Australia while were considered to have done well based solely on low Chinavirus figures experience the reality of a population which still hasn't been exposed to the virus and thus must either remain locked down or have the virus go through after economic devastation.
> 
> Comparing WA to the USA is just absurd. WA is one of the most sparsely inhabited large regions of land on the planet. If that's the best comparison you can pull it shows you're clutching at straws.




What....Perth 2 million people, fly in fly out hub gateway to the wealth of the nation, 500,000 Western Australians alone travel to Indonesia that's before you get to Thailand .....where have you been?

if there was ever a case for a Covid epicentre Perth is it, but dread of all dreads McGowan locked down the state earlier and some but with commonsense you could going jogging and have a kabab or surfing at the beach, all the time Morrison was off to the football and on the East Coast people getting arrested for being on their own.

NSW screaming he was a dictator and had to open the boarders all the time NSW's had higher restrictions , now WA leads Australia in opening up again.

There is plenty of comparisons against the US what to do (leadership) and what not to do (die for the economy....stupid).

Polls showing WA are very happy with the situation..........


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## macca (6 July 2020)

rederob said:


> There are many cities far worse off than New York that never had anywhere near the problems. Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo quickly come to mind.  That's not to mention a dozen or so cities in China.
> It's all good and well to promote exercise and a balanced diet, including Vitamin D, but there are no valid correlations that support your ideas.
> The USA has been enjoying several months of sunshine now and their COV19 rates are the highest on record.




As most people already know, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo all wore masks from day one, here are the links for Vitamin D already posted on ASF

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...tbreak-discussion.35174/page-198#post-1080556


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## Sdajii (6 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> But if we have a vaccine soon?




If we have a functional vaccine soon it will be the most unlikely medical miracle of our lifetimes. I'm in my 40s, there have been serious attempts to create vaccines for coronaviruses ongoing since long before I was born. No effective vaccince has ever been created for any of them, and by no means for lack of trying. SARS is very closely related to this bug and plenty of attempts have been made to create a vaccine for it. They failed. SARS was first identified in 2003, it's now 2020, no progress at all has been made, and not for want of trying; SARS is still being cultured and researched to this day. Let that sink in.

Given your question there's little doubt that you're no biologist, but basically, there are viruses for which vaccines are easily created, like smallpox (fortunately!) and others for which vaccines are literally impossible according to our understanding of immunology, and probably will be impossible forever. If vaccines were possible for all viruses we'd have had a vaccine for HIV decades ago (just one of many examples). It's likely that a vaccine for this virus simply isn't even theoretically possible, and it's extremely unlikely that we'll have an effective vaccine in any timeframe you could call 'soon'. No vaccine for any virus has ever been developed quickly enough to be considered 'soon' by the standards of this event, even for easy viruses, and this is somewhere between extremely difficult and literally impossible (we don't yet know). 

We may literally have a magic bullet cure for all cancer before we see an effective vaccine for this virus. At least a magic bullet cure for cancer is theoretically possible and we probably will see it one day. A vaccine for this virus is far less certain than one day being able to regrow severed limbs etc.


----------



## Sdajii (6 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan  will have statues raised for him.




You really are a galah. You respond to 'The state of WA and the country USA are completely and utterly non comparable' with a nonsensical comparison.


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## Smurf1976 (6 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> A few of us here aren't that old; we are in our mid 30s.
> 
> We will be the generation that pays off the spending spree.




I'm likewise young enough and, so far as I'm aware, healthy enough that I'll be paying off the debts.

Looking at it overseas though, well at this point the USA is basically a failed nation that can't even protect its own citizens from a health crisis. To say they've failed is an understatement.

The price they'll pay isn't just the deaths right now, but that the best and brightest, or indeed anyone with much sense, will no longer be seeing it as a desirable place to live. The days of US leadership are gone for that reason - the brightest minds are not lured by money alone, such people tend to value their own safety, and many will be looking elsewhere.

Or we could take a look at China. Based on official statistics they've done an order of magnitude better job of dealing with the virus than the US, UK, France or Iran (among many others) have but they've paid a huge economic price for doing so.

That China did what they did is partly my reasoning. Whatever they know about the virus, it scared the absolute crap out of them that's rather clear. Actions speak louder than words and the actions scream that they saw it as a huge concern.

Closer to home a very similar dynamic applies. Where would you rather be right now?

1. In an apartment tower in Melbourne?
2. Anywhere else in Victoria?
3. Anywhere else in Australia?

I think we all know the answer there and the other states, especially the smaller population ones, would be crazy from a purely economic perspective to blow the opportunity that's been handed to them.

Big business needs to likewise face that reality. Working at head office is no longer the prize goal for the best employees. Rather, it's the place where you put the drones meanwhile the stars work from home in a place that's nowhere near the city. Smart businesses will adapt to that quickly. Those not so smart will lose the best employees to those who do adapt. Welcome to free market capitalism.

In saying all that, the dam does not collapse due to the flood. No, it collapses due to inadequate design, construction or maintenance with the flood being merely the trigger.

Same with the pandemic. It's not the first time there's been a pandemic and it won't be the last, indeed the next one may well require far more stringent measures than this one. Hence exposed businesses insure against the pandemic risk, hence the economy needs to be designed to cope with GDP that goes down at times as well as up and so on. 

If those things are not in place, if businesses didn't have insurance or governments and central banks haven't allowed for times when GDP goes down, well then that's a failing on their part and the solution is to replace them with better managers who do have the ability to manage risk. Trying to cover up the problem only perpetuates it.

Realistically, what can't occur if Australia or any other country closes its borders?

Holidays and tours by professional sports teams and performing artists basically covers it.

Business meetings etc are doable online.

Manufacturing, mining, agriculture, freight etc carries on business as usual. Only real exception being if someone gambled on long distance FIFO and lost, in which case capitalism takes care of those unable to manage risk by advantaging competitors who can.

Anyone moving permanently could simply be quarantined upon arrival.

That leaves those on a short stay and who need to physically be present. Tourists, live performances of music or other things, professional sports.

Personally well I like going on holidays and I've been to plenty of concerts over the years but I find it unacceptable to knowingly sacrifice the lives of others in order to resume doing so.


----------



## frugal.rock (6 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You really are a galah.



Reminds me of Austen Tayshus Crowing but I don't want to Parrot on. It's a bit Cocky, like me when I was a Myna driving the Corella.
Hey Bud,gie get my drift?


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## SirRumpole (6 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking at it overseas though, well at this point the USA is basically a failed nation that can't even protect its own citizens from a health crisis. To say they've failed is an understatement.
> 
> The price they'll pay isn't just the deaths right now, but that the best and brightest, or indeed anyone with much sense, will no longer be seeing it as a desirable place to live. The days of US leadership are gone for that reason - the brightest minds won't be lured by money alone, such people tend to value their own safety, and many will be looking elsewhere.




Indeed so. How many tourists would want to go to the US knowing that their risks of getting the virus is so high ?

How many businesses would want to start up there if they have to go into lockdown every few months or their employees keep getting sick ?

And as you point out , the brain drain may start to reverse and the best and brightest will look for safe havens like Australia. Businesses will invest where they can get a healthy worforce.

So, our strategy may pay off in the long run. Short term pain for long term gain is often a successful ploy.


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## over9k (6 July 2020)

Nah, not a chance of that happening. 










The U.S will soon be not just the largest consumer market, but the only one. The only thing the virus will have done at most is delay the inevitable.


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## jbocker (7 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Here in WA we are pretty much back at full tilt going by this mornings traffic into Perth talking to the real estate guys in my area June was the best month for years, cars sales going off, cafes full etc State premiere McGowan  will have statues raised for him.



ALL Perth office staff are back in office at Woodside. A top 20 ASX company.


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## over9k (7 July 2020)

Economic implications of an outbreak:

All activities which can be done by distance, now are. As a result, Amazon cracks the $3000 mark today. All the other stay-at-home tech like zoom, crowdstrike, ebay, paypal, adobe (and so on) take off like a gunshot, head & shoulders above everything else. They gain the most on the green days and lose the least (or even continue to gain) on the red days.

Really no more complex than that.


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## Sdajii (7 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Indeed so. How many tourists would want to go to the US knowing that their risks of getting the virus is so high ?
> 
> How many businesses would want to start up there if they have to go into lockdown every few months or their employees keep getting sick ?
> 
> ...




This is the epitome of short term thinking. If you've worked hard to keep the virus out, you have permanently backed yourself into a corner where you can not allow people in until you admit you were wrong and let people in, at which time the virus can spread. See, that's the thing about keeping it virus free - it's only a short term solution. No one is going to go anywhere on holiday if they need to spend the first two weeks locked up in isolation, it's a huge limit on people coming in to work. So, talking about where you'd rather be in the way you are is meaningless, because effectively no one is going to be able to go to those places. The places which have had the virus go through though, they'll be unaffected by new arrivals. Other than in the very short term I'd much rather be part of a 'we can do whatever we like without fear' bubble than a 'we are going to be perpetually stepping on eggshells and facing the possibility of yet another lockdown' place.


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## over9k (7 July 2020)

You say that as if the extra income from tourism wouldn't be more than offset by the virus ripping through your population like wildfire, which it would.


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## Smurf1976 (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You say that as if the extra income from tourism wouldn't be more than offset by the virus ripping through your population like wildfire, which it would.




The data I can find is for 2017-18 so not the latest but still recent and it shows tourism as a net loss for Australia.

Tourism exports = $37.4 billion

Tourism imports = $54 billion

So there's a loss of economic activity and there's obviously the issue of people not being able to enjoy themselves on an overseas holiday but at an overall national level it's not something that's bringing money in anyway.

There's a downside definitely, people can't go and see the world and we're not going to be having international sports or concert tours or whatever and it has an obvious downside with lost activity and employment but it's not going to send the country broke.


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## jbocker (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This is the epitome of short term thinking. If you've worked hard to keep the virus out, you have permanently backed yourself into a corner where you can not allow people in until you admit you were wrong and let people in, at which time the virus can spread. See, that's the thing about keeping it virus free - it's only a short term solution. No one is going to go anywhere on holiday if they need to spend the first two weeks locked up in isolation, it's a huge limit on people coming in to work. So, talking about where you'd rather be in the way you are is meaningless, because effectively no one is going to be able to go to those places. The places which have had the virus go through though, they'll be unaffected by new arrivals. Other than in the very short term I'd much rather be part of a 'we can do whatever we like without fear' bubble than a 'we are going to be perpetually stepping on eggshells and facing the possibility of yet another lockdown' place.



It will take some out of box thinking to get around the 'isolation' period and will probably then only suit the longer term stayer. The international retiree* travel group with plenty of time perhaps where after some good R&R for two weeks on a dedicated island they then join our grey nomads doing a long road trip. A few months travelling this amazing countryside not worrying about covid. Hey we might have trouble getting them to leave. Yep they are going to need to spend a lot. Oh dear.

* if any manage to survive in other countries.


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## Sdajii (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You say that as if the extra income from tourism wouldn't be more than offset by the virus ripping through your population like wildfire, which it would.




The virus almost exclusively kills people who aren't far from death anyway. It doesn't actually have a devastating affect on the population. This isn't Ebola or the plague or smallpox. Literally most people literally don't even notice when they're infected, and most of the others have a mild disease.

Either way, the fact remains that the genie is out of the bottle, it can't be put back in, there almost certainly won't be a vaccine, so the economic devastation is not preventing everyone from getting it, it's just delaying it a bit.

Put it this way, if you knew you were going to lose your house, would you walk away with all your money, allowing yourself to have some resources to set up elsewhere, or would you spend every last penny you had trying to save it then borrow a pile of money, then lose it anyway meaning you move out a few months later but in debt?

What is the endgame here? The virus isn't going to magically disappear. We can't stay isolated forever. Everyone will eventually be exposed. Delaying the inevitable is extremely expensive and will weaken us for decades including causing many deaths, depression etc (poverty is a killer in multiple ways), and we still need to deal with the inevitable. Jobkeeper and double dole run out in September. Things are going to get ugly then.


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## over9k (7 July 2020)

The virus becomes deadlier the older you get. You know who spends on tourism like drunken sailors?

Retirees.

The genie has absolutely been kept in the bottle in many places. To let it out would be the height of stupidity.


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## Smurf1976 (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Everyone will eventually be exposed. Delaying the inevitable is extremely expensive and will weaken us for decades




The missing piece of your argument is how, exactly, is the country losing?

Apart from universities and immigration, which given the duration of stay could be worked around by quarantine, what economic activity of any real benefit to the nation overall is unable to occur at present?

I do agree that ultimately a lockdown is not sustainable. But then constant growth in population or real housing prices is also not sustainable but there's plenty willing to try and kick the can on those two. Same with plenty of other things - they're not sustainable but there aren't too many in a hurry to stop them without first exhausting all possible options for their continuance.

Given that vaccine trials are commencing now, that is trials on humans, it seems a bit premature to say it won't happen. It may not happen, there may come a point where there's no choice other than to deal with that, but the options haven't been exhausted yet.

Of course if a vaccine doesn't eventuate, then that's one almighty spanner in the works of rather a lot of economic argument is it not? The argument that markets fix problems and all that - if the market doesn't come up with a vaccine despite having a truly massive incentive to do so then that's an almighty rug pull from under the entire argument for free market capitalism as being something that's sure to come up with solutions to problems. Such an outcome would likely have far broader implications than just the virus.  

That said, well we may not come up with a vaccine that's entirely possible. We're not at that point yet, we've barely even tried, so to say we're going to fail at this point is akin to saying we can't put the fire out when we haven't even dumped any water in it yet. At least give it a go.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> The genie has absolutely been kept in the bottle in many places. To let it out would be the height of stupidity




If we have come to the point where human health needs to be sacrificed in order to meet the needs of the economy then we're well past stuffed in oh so many ways.

Such a scenario amounts to the master taking orders from the servant.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (7 July 2020)

Excellent summation Smurf



> I'm likewise young enough and, so far as I'm aware, healthy enough that I'll be paying off the debts.




We will be paying this off for generations to come with all sorts of generational COVID levies and taxes.



> The price they'll pay isn't just the deaths right now, but that the best and brightest, or indeed anyone with much sense, will no longer be seeing it as a desirable place to live. The days of US leadership are gone for that reason - the brightest minds are not lured by money alone, such people tend to value their own safety, and many will be looking elsewhere.
> 
> Or we could take a look at China. Based on official statistics they've done an order of magnitude better job of dealing with the virus than the US, UK, France or Iran (among many others) have but they've paid a huge economic price for doing so.
> 
> That China did what they did is partly my reasoning. Whatever they know about the virus, it scared the absolute crap out of them that's rather clear. Actions speak louder than words and the actions scream that they saw it as a huge concern.




I tend to agree that the USA will find it difficult to maintain the global brain drain to their nation with the global virus pandemic and widespread civil unrest.

On paper; it looks like China have done an excellent job in suppressing the virus although I am not so sure that the data coming out of China is entirely accurate. Whether true or not, I heard that China were dealing with this virus back in September 2019 but hadn't announced it to the world.



> Closer to home a very similar dynamic applies. Where would you rather be right now?
> 
> 1. In an apartment tower in Melbourne?
> 2. Anywhere else in Victoria?
> ...




Whitsundays or Far North Queensland (FNQ) would be the ideal place to be while this global pandemic rages across the planet. Living there permanently is a different story as there isn't much work for highly skilled people.



> Big business needs to likewise face that reality. Working at head office is no longer the prize goal for the best employees. Rather, it's the place where you put the drones meanwhile the stars work from home in a place that's nowhere near the city. Smart businesses will adapt to that quickly. Those not so smart will lose the best employees to those who do adapt. Welcome to free market capitalism.
> 
> In saying all that, the dam does not collapse due to the flood. No, it collapses due to inadequate design, construction or maintenance with the flood being merely the trigger.
> 
> Same with the pandemic. It's not the first time there's been a pandemic and it won't be the last, indeed the next one may well require far more stringent measures than this one. Hence exposed businesses insure against the pandemic risk, hence the economy needs to be designed to cope with GDP that goes down at times as well as up and so on.




This global pandemic experience will forever change the way big business operates. Some may even claim that this disruption is a good thing. Charles Darwin's theory of "Survival Of The Fittest" is incorrect or incomplete at best; it is survival of the most adaptive to change. This holds true for not only species within ecosystems, but large corporations, small and medium businesses, and individuals.

A primary responsibility of government is ensure that the system (economy) within which corporations, small and medium businesses and individuals operate and live within, is a stable system that doesn't rapidly change. Change is inevitable, constant and the fundamental driver of chaos with systems.



> If those things are not in place, if businesses didn't have insurance or governments and central banks haven't allowed for times when GDP goes down, well then that's a failing on their part and the solution is to replace them with better managers who do have the ability to manage risk. Trying to cover up the problem only perpetuates it.
> 
> Realistically, what can't occur if Australia or any other country closes its borders?
> 
> ...




We need to be honest with the reality of what we are dealing with. Our international borders will be closed for the foreseeable future and our domestic borders will constantly alternate between opening and closing depending upon virus outbreaks. We need to come to terms with this. Pretending that this is just going to be a V shaped economic recovery and everything will go back to normal soon and that everything will be fine, is foolish and fantastical.

Some people will be able to move permanently and take their job with them, like those that work in IT or perhaps Finance.

I won't be leaving for a holiday for at least a year and if I travel, it will likely be domestically.


----------



## qldfrog (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Nah, not a chance of that happening.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Eh i agree with you @over9k 
.if we could get permanent residency in the us, be there in a sec as soon as i have sold my ppor here.

Innovators and entrepreneurs dreamland, rewarding efforts, work and brain with investment $ .


In which other dimension would they come here?because of the virus?
And not even be able to ever get out if i listen to some..sorry not never..until a vaccine LoL
It is not a difference of opinion here, it is a cultural and reality Grand Canyon
Australia is still a great place for tourism..oops sorry closed, retirement..but without ever seeing your O/S family and to have fun as a backpacker or student...sorry closed too.
The new Amish country


----------



## qldfrog (7 July 2020)

I actually expect to see a brain drain and very quickly.
An area not discussed much but of critical importance for the young and brightest is promotion.if you scratch being the surface, you will notice that WFH is a great killer of ambitious but not ambition.
How do you prove that you are better than John to your manager on the zoom screen 
Your job is perfect ..so is his, but you have not had the talk at the water cooler with Jane about this new project that could be a great fit with your skills etc
WFH does not fit with corporate ambitions: these younger brightest will need to leave and this will happen very quickly while you will not see them moving back here to raise a young family ..that was the previously existing scenario repeated again and again, and this is dead
If you have a North Korea situation but do not shot the escaping, who will be left behind.?
Brain drain will start within months


----------



## over9k (7 July 2020)

Yeah, australia's only competitive edge is in mining. That's it, it's all it has. 

But it's a lot, so aus will be fine. Just not somewhere the best & brightest will migrate to.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah, australia's only competitive edge is in mining. That's it, it's all it has.
> 
> But it's a lot, so aus will be fine. Just not somewhere the best & brightest will migrate to.




Mining and Agriculture.


----------



## over9k (7 July 2020)

Well yes, but 50% of the world's iron ore supply vs an order of magnitude less of its food. Sorry, should have been more specific. 

"Rocks and crops", as we say.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Well yes, but 50% of the world's iron ore supply vs an order of magnitude less of its food. Sorry, should have been more specific.
> 
> "Rocks and crops", as we say.




Australia has great potential to leverage of these existing industries. For example, Australia's space industry can provide critical support to our mining and agriculture sectors.



https://www.industry.gov.au/strategies-for-the-future/australian-space-agency


----------



## qldfrog (7 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Australia has great potential to leverage of these existing industries. For example, Australia's space industry can provide critical support to our mining and agriculture sectors.
> 
> View attachment 105672
> 
> https://www.industry.gov.au/strategies-for-the-future/australian-space-agency



You do not build a space agency without importing skills
Also remember the link between defence and space:
NASA is where it is/was thanks to high tech defence contractors..and reverse..a beneficial loop
Airbus/Ariane rockets are the fruit of military cartel experience and skills.
We have zip.
I had to move skills from air defence to mining when moving in OZ .
Can list the high tech relevant areas in oz: Boeing and Eurocopter  in qld, submarine in SA.
Over...
And a lot of expats who will be on the way out soon
NOT A CHANCE


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (7 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You do not build a space agency without importing skills
> Also remember the link between defence and space:
> NASA is where it is/was thanks to high tech defence contractors..and reverse..a beneficial loop
> Airbus/Ariane rockets are the fruit of military cartel experience and skills.
> ...




Considering Australia's enormous geographical land mass, we should have established a space agency/industry decades ago.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> An area not discussed much but of critical importance for the young and brightest is promotion.if you scratch being the surface, you will notice that WFH is a great killer of ambitious but not ambition.




If someone’s age 20 then you’re probably right. Health risks are minimal and they’ll chase promotion and so on.

Once they’re 30-something with kids though, well if they choose the US then either they haven’t made it, they didn’t get those promotions and they have no real choice in what they do now, or they’re not one of the brightest. Safety tends to be a priority at that point and the US isn’t really in the race these days.

Young people chase money and success. Oldies tend to favour certainty and safety. Having children is usually the tipping point for most.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (7 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You do not build a space agency without importing skills
> Also remember the link between defence and space:
> NASA is where it is/was thanks to high tech defence contractors..and reverse..a beneficial loop
> Airbus/Ariane rockets are the fruit of military cartel experience and skills.
> ...




What I meant by leverage was more in relation to existing and new industry growth, operations and function.

Sure there may be an opportunity for a few mechanical and electrical engineers from the mining sector to cross over, however a great deal of talent and skill will need to be imported, as you say.


----------



## rederob (7 July 2020)

macca said:


> As most people already know, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo all wore masks from day one, here are the links for Vitamin D already posted on ASF
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...tbreak-discussion.35174/page-198#post-1080556



I don't use social media for science.


----------



## qldfrog (7 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If someone’s age 20 then you’re probably right. Health risks are minimal and they’ll chase promotion and so on.
> 
> Once they’re 30-something with kids though, well if they choose the US then either they haven’t made it, they didn’t get those promotions and they have no real choice in what they do now, or they’re not one of the brightest. Safety tends to be a priority at that point and the US isn’t really in the race these days.
> 
> Young people chase money and success. Oldies tend to favour certainty and safety. Having children is usually the tipping point for most.





Smurf1976 said:


> If someone’s age 20 then you’re probably right. Health risks are minimal and they’ll chase promotion and so on.
> 
> Once they’re 30-something with kids though, well if they choose the US then either they haven’t made it, they didn’t get those promotions and they have no real choice in what they do now, or they’re not one of the brightest. Safety tends to be a priority at that point and the US isn’t really in the race these days.
> 
> Young people chase money and success. Oldies tend to favour certainty and safety. Having children is usually the tipping point for most.



fair and agree, my son birth was what made me decline a job in the silicon valley but that was a mistake my son will not do.
But in term of safety if you are 30 or 40, the virus counts for zip for you or your kids..and please not the example of a guy dying from covid at 41, I lost 41y old colleagues to blood cancer and others to cardiac arrests strokes once the 40y old is reached, you start dying more than we are comfortable with.
I am sure you have noticed

People will not move/move back to Australia scared by the virus and looking forward to leaving in a bubble they can not escape.They might come here escaping crime or Islam fanaticism (Europe) but we are a giant aged care/retirement home island and this will not improve with this
Anyway, each to his own, we could also soon get put frozen in a fridge and live forever...very safely...except for the grid problem ;-)


----------



## Sdajii (7 July 2020)

over9k said:


> The virus becomes deadlier the older you get. You know who spends on tourism like drunken sailors?
> 
> Retirees.
> 
> The genie has absolutely been kept in the bottle in many places. To let it out would be the height of stupidity.




The genie is out of the bottle. The genie doesn't need to be everywhere at all times to not be out of the bottle! That's never what the term has meant! The genie is not contained in the bottle, it will eventually get everywhere. The SARS genie was contained. The Chinavirus genie is out, it is all over the world, it is in most countries, that means you can't put it back into the bottle, that means there will forever be there to reinfect any place which does not maintain ongoing restrictions. That's what the genie being out of the bottle means.

You're thinking very short term, allowing grey nomads to travel in places which have been kept isolated. Eventually the virus needs to run its course, you can't keep everywhere isolated forever. You're pretending that it can be kept out forever, it can't. It only just popped up a few months ago.


----------



## Sdajii (7 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The missing piece of your argument is how, exactly, is the country losing?
> 
> Apart from universities and immigration, which given the duration of stay could be worked around by quarantine, what economic activity of any real benefit to the nation overall is unable to occur at present?
> 
> ...




I'm not sure if you're joking or stupid when you ask how the country is losing. Have you checked how much money the government is chewing through every day to maintain the current insanity? Are you aware of how many people have lost their jobs and businesses? Are you aware that everyone unemployed, of which there are more than ever before, and being paid double the normal dole? Are you aware of how many people have sold out their superannuation? Are you remotely aware of the future implications of people selling out their superannuation now? I mean, if you get 10 credit cards and max them all out everything might seem fine for a few months, and perhaps someone like you may not see it as a problem until later...

Vaccines being tested was inevitable, just like vaccines have been tested for other coronaviruses since before I was born, vaccines for HIV have been tested on humans for decades. That doesn't make it possible. No matter how futile, people are going to have a go at things, and so they should, and hey, just maybe we'll have a medical miracle, and people are going to chase it because if they do come up with a vaccine that works, even if it doesn't really work effectively, it'll be worth incredible money so people are going to try, just like they're still trying for HIV etc. The probability of a vaccine which actually works being created for this virus is close to zero. It's barely higher than for HIV (which is probably literally zero). Even if it is theoretically possible for it to exist, the probability of a vaccine for this virus which works being created within 5-10 years is negligible.

If a cheap, effective vaccine within 6-12 months was likely, it still wouldn't be worth all the harm we've caused. The economic damage we've already done is going to cause problems for literally decades. The government spending so much money and financially crippling itself, not on major infrastructure developments or any sort of investment, but on Jobkeeper, double dole payments, all the activity for which there is no ongoing benefit. People selling off their super just to get through (or in many cases they're stupid enough to take the excuse and use that money to buy silly nonsense, for example, I sell high end snakes and I've literally been seeing people use their super money to buy tens of thousands of dollars on a literal handful of pet snakes, which has been brilliant for snake sellers but highlights the insanity of the situation), and people having lost their businesses and jobs, the reality of this is really going to hit in September when Jobkeeper and double dole expire. This is already the reality we have, even if a magic vaccine was produced this afternoon, and it will already cause more harm than the virus ever would have, but there's almost certainty that we won't have a vaccine anyway, meaning all this damage is ultimately for nothing.

No vaccine has ever been produced in anywhere near the timeframe you seem to be thinking. No vaccine, ever, for any type of virus, even the easy ones. This is literally a category of virus which no effective vaccine has ever been produced for, ever, even after decades of trying. I'm not saying it's 100% impossible, but if it did happen it would make the Apollo program and the Manhatten Project look like primary school science projects, and it's almost certain not to happen.


----------



## Sdajii (7 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If we have come to the point where human health needs to be sacrificed in order to meet the needs of the economy then we're well past stuffed in oh so many ways.
> 
> Such a scenario amounts to the master taking orders from the servant.




Human health is literally dependent on the economy! Poverty is literally a killer. Whether you're talking about poverty on an individual level (individuals being more poor than their neighbours) or a national level (life expectancy in poor countries regardless of individual wealth) there are countless studies demonstrating clear, tangible links between life expectancy and quality of life and economics. It's not coincidence that poor people get sick more and die sooner than rich people. It's not coincidence that people in poorer countries get sick more and die sooner. It's not coincidence that this effect is dramatic when a country suffers economic damage, that is, if a country was previously wealthy and then collapses, it often doesn't cope as well as a country which wasn't previously wealthy; there's a difficulty in adjusting.

In terms of years of human life, we are killing a great many to save a few.


----------



## rederob (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Human health is literally dependent on the economy! Poverty is literally a killer. Whether you're talking about poverty on an individual level (individuals being more poor than their neighbours) or a national level (life expectancy in poor countries regardless of individual wealth) there are countless studies demonstrating clear, tangible links between life expectancy and quality of life and economics. It's not coincidence that poor people get sick more and die sooner than rich people. It's not coincidence that people in poorer countries get sick more and die sooner. It's not coincidence that this effect is dramatic when a country suffers economic damage, that is, if a country was previously wealthy and then collapses, it often doesn't cope as well as a country which wasn't previously wealthy; there's a difficulty in adjusting.
> 
> In terms of years of human life, we are killing a great many to save a few.



Cuba is proof positive of a health system that is not reliant on economic wealth.  
Meanwhile the UK is proof positive that even the NHS cannot prevent high mortality rates if you get a country's messaging wrong from the outset.
Countries which do not support their poor certainly have higher early-death rates for their poor, for many obvious reasons.
We will see over coming years how the USA fares as a result of its attempt to keep its economy "open."  
But we don't even have to wait to see how most east Asian nations are faring compared to the rest of the world.


----------



## IFocus (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You really are a galah. You respond to 'The state of WA and the country USA are completely and utterly non comparable' with a nonsensical comparison.




Hmmm I know I am a Galah.......perhaps some self refection on your part re your need to keep making derogatory remarks on other posters reflects badly on ones self!

And you are absolutely right  there is no comparison between Trumps leadership and WA's leadership Trump has been vacant for long periods of time, chaotic, divisive, dithering and at odds with the US leading experts.

McGowan has been the complete opposite thanks for pointing that out


----------



## IFocus (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> In terms of years of human life, we are killing a great many to save a few.




Could you put up some evidence of this it would be interesting to see the break downs.


----------



## IFocus (7 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Cuba is proof positive of a health system that is not reliant on economic wealth.
> Meanwhile the UK is proof positive that even the NHS cannot prevent high mortality rates if you get a country's messaging wrong from the outset.
> Countries which do not support their poor certainly have higher early-death rates for their poor, for many obvious reasons.
> We will see over coming years how the USA fares as a result of its attempt to keep its economy "open."
> But we don't even have to wait to see how most east Asian nations are faring compared to the rest of the world.




Just to add the US is the richest or one of the richest countries in the world yet has a declining life expectancy rate.


----------



## SirRumpole (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> In terms of years of human life, we are killing a great many to save a few.




Can you prove that with some data ?

Have you factored in the drop in road accidents, violent and drunken crime on the streets and the consequent hospital admissions ?

(Just read IFocus beat me to it, but I'd like to see the data too).


----------



## IFocus (7 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Just keep seeing wild statements. Thought I would show of those who die their age groups and how many had existing conditions. New York is a good place to get the stats.
> Shows that if you are 45-64 you are not totally safe.




Those numbers are also skewed as a result of the lock downs and restrictions demographics, hot spots etc  had everyone been exposed the results would be significantly different as health care facilities get over run and care given to less people.


----------



## sptrawler (7 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Just to add the US is the richest or one of the richest countries in the world yet has a declining life expectancy rate.



You will probably find that is the case in a lot of countries, people are eating themselves to death.


----------



## macca (7 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> You will probably find that is the case in a lot of countries, people are eating themselves to death.




They eat a lot of fast food and the servings are HUGE


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I'm not sure if you're joking or stupid when you ask how the country is losing. Have you checked how much money the government is chewing through every day to maintain the current insanity? Are you aware of how many people have lost their jobs and businesses? Are you aware that everyone unemployed, of which there are more than ever before, and being paid double the normal dole? Are you aware of how many people have sold out their superannuation? Are you remotely aware of the future implications of people selling out their superannuation now? I mean, if you get 10 credit cards and max them all out everything might seem fine for a few months, and perhaps someone like you may not see it as a problem until later...




The things you mention are all examples of wealth transfer within the country but not into or out of it as a whole.

Tourism is a net loss to Australia. It benefits government and creates employment but it's sending $ billions out of the country overall. It benefits individuals and some regions or even states certainly but overall from a national perspective it's in the same domain as smashing windows so that they can be fixed - it creates work and avoids spending on welfare but it's a loss in terms of actual wealth overall.


----------



## wayneL (7 July 2020)

macca said:


> They eat a lot of fast food and the servings are HUGE



...and FULL of sugar!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (7 July 2020)

The most accurate comment in the RBA statement was nothing new, but it is even more relevant given the recent events in Victoria (an hour after release, Melbourne in a second round of lockdown)

“The substantial, co-ordinated and unprecedented easing of fiscal and monetary policy in Australia is helping the economy through this difficult period,” the statement said.

“It is likely that fiscal and monetary support will be required *for some time*.”


----------



## qldfrog (7 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The most accurate comment in the RBA statement was nothing new, but it is even more relevant given the recent events in Victoria (an hour after release, Melbourne in a second round of lockdown)
> 
> “The substantial, co-ordinated and unprecedented easing of fiscal and monetary policy in Australia is helping the economy through this difficult period,” the statement said.
> 
> “It is likely that fiscal and monetary support will be required *for some time*.”



And that means ASX up


----------



## satanoperca (7 July 2020)

What are you trying to say Sdjaii?



Sdajii said:


> What is the endgame here? The virus isn't going to magically disappear. We can't stay isolated forever. Everyone will eventually be exposed. Delaying the inevitable is extremely expensive and will weaken us for decades including causing many deaths, depression etc (poverty is a killer in multiple ways), and we still need to deal with the inevitable. Jobkeeper and double dole run out in September. Things are going to get ugly then.




The pollies that are taking direction from the so-called experts (well experts in one field, but not all fields that produce a healthy and productive society) have got it all wrong?

Did Sweden get it wrong?
Population 10M, Deaths 5K, Mortality rate across population 0.05%

Have the USA got it wrong?
Population 330M, Deaths 150K, Mortality rate across population 0.045%

Has Australia got it wrong?
Population 24M, Deaths 103, Mortality rate across population 0.0004%

Looks like Australia are the champs, but wait, we have f---kd so many people's lives via crippling local businesses and job losses, saddled current and future generations with so much debt that can never be repaid, for what, a couple of 0's in stats.

Or is this virus not as bad as we think it is?
World population 8B, Deaths 500K so far, Mortality rate 0.00625

Well, people dying from hunger this year alone is 4,660,000 people.

I asked previously in this thread "How much is a human life worth?'

I bet anyone, for the money that has been wasted trying to stop something that is unstoppable we as a world could have save 1000 more lives by preventing hunger. But I suspect, most who have a voice about this virus and are making irrational decisions are well fed.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 July 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I bet anyone, for the money that has been wasted trying to stop something that is unstoppable we as a world could have save 1000 more lives by preventing hunger. But I suspect, most who have a voice about this virus and are making irrational decisions are well fed.




Another way to look at it would be to ponder how much was wasted on the completely pointless Iraq war and the whole "terrorism" thing in general given that 11 September 2001 killed essentially nobody compared to what COVID-19 has already done in the US alone.

Or how much was spent on the GFC and why were businesses which received assistance not required to publicly acknowledge this support and repay it in full with commercial rates of interest? That alone would fund plenty of medical care and improve lives.

Etc. This whole argument looks awfully like another case of trying to socialise the costs in the interest of private profit. I'd take it far more seriously if business proposed a middle ground that got things going whilst sharing the cost.


----------



## satanoperca (7 July 2020)

I agree with you Smurf.


----------



## Knobby22 (8 July 2020)

Post of the week Smurf.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Post of the week Smurf.



Really?, drama of endoctrinement and sacrifice of generations for maybe a few above 70s.
You save a few to kill more
Honestly amazed by your and @Smurf1976 attitude there, full respect for the individuals, so obviously, and i hope you guys have done the same: i ask myself, could i be wrong?
I am no reb rob here
Nope, facts and figures  are clear...
Proof if need be that scare panic hysteria and a bit of propaganda is a powerful tool 
For your own integrity which i think you and  others have 
Look genuinely at the arguments and facts presented.
No answer wanted or needed.it is an ethical issue for you to solve


----------



## over9k (8 July 2020)

Again, it's totally moot. What we think SHOULD be done matters nothing. We have no control over it. 

We need to stick to what will or might be done from here on out and why.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Again, it's totally moot. What we think SHOULD be done matters nothing. We have no control over it.
> 
> We need to stick to what will or might be done from here on out and why.



And that is why it is good to be here, as a sample of people reactions some of them bright but having fundamental visceral reactions.
It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.
Not a matter of being right or wrong, but exploiting the sentiments
That and the Victoria response means we are heading for the wall economically worsening instead of improving.not because of the virus, but by our reaction. Have to say our but not mine
Was wondering releasing super from cash, will not.
Keep in systems and O/S plays. 
what a self inflicted disaster...


----------



## over9k (8 July 2020)

Not sure what you mean about my mindset and not be invested frog, I have tons of skin in the game


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## Knobby22 (8 July 2020)

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!

As Trump stated The Swedish experiment has failed, they ended up with all the negative effects on GDP combined with a lot more deaths.
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/swedens-covid-experiment-is-now-a-certified-failure


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## SirRumpole (8 July 2020)

Googling "covid deaths Sweden"  gives 5,447 deaths so far.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Not sure what you mean about my mindset and not be invested frog, I have tons of skin in the game



Should correct: wrong indeed: panicky mindset related to virus medical damage.

Yes you have leverage it and indeed are invested which i admire if you really believe the virus is that  bad.
Basically you play well the scare to your credit
But i  suspect thea masses will go back cash gold and banks BHP because we are in Oz.
And we need to take that into account, as you did for the tech flight
Meanwhile in the real world:France growth surprised by being higher than expected.economy restarting stronger than expected
Nothing to add.and virus widespread there


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Should correct: wrong indeed: panicky mindset related to virus medical damage.
> 
> Yes you have leverage it and indeed are invested which i admire if you really believe the virus is that  bad.
> Basically you play well the scare to your credit
> ...



30000 deaths no need to google
When you have Sweden used as a model of what not to do, and France seen as enlightment in term of economic growth, shouldn't we cry.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Should correct: wrong indeed: panicky mindset related to virus medical damage.
> 
> Yes you have leverage it and indeed are invested which i admire if you really believe the virus is that  bad.
> Basically you play well the scare to your credit
> ...



As you say frog, we have to think about what will play out in the market, what the authorities do we have no control over, this is going to be a drop in real living standards not just a drop in the markets.
Real returns on investment are the lowest i have seen, yet there are still some things that are making money, it is up to us to work out which ones those are and to get onto them.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

Not to give a lesson but 
How to look at figures
One take death by coronavirus
Sweden if you like
Total number
Look at overall death total number
Then look at last year total number
Look at the trend..i just did for Sweden : mortality on the rise due to population aging
Out of last 3/4 years draw line and get expected mortality number for 2020
Compare to current number wait for end of year for full year
What were the added extra deaths
Anything else is bull****.
You will get final numbers by end of year. Better at the end of next year you will see the real impact
Now get the same in finland for this year and next and determine the "winner"
Pm me in december 21 and we restart that thread


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Not to give a lesson but
> How to look at figures
> One take death by coronavirus
> Sweden if you like
> ...



Now how to make money from the scared rabbits in the spotlight..invest in their new religion the VACCINE saving us all...
CSL...


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

In hindsight what have we seen up to now, as a result of the virus, with regard consumer spending? This has to have a knock on effect at a later I would think.
Most people carried out those nagging maintenance jobs they had been putting off, this caused a spike in Bunnings earnings, will it also result in a slump in Bunnings earnings now the jobs are done?
With the panic buying and stockpiling, there was also a rush on white goods, fridges freezers etc, which saw a spike in Hardly Normals and JB's sales, again now the fridge has been updated, big T.V has been bought, will there be a big fall in earnings. Especially when the handouts are throttled back.
All the people who have capitalised their home loan interest, will it be seen as earnings on the balance sheets of the banks, or a drag.
Which companies are going to receive favourable treatment, to increase their ability to supply the domestic market with essentials, that were hard to obtain during the pandemic.
Just a few of my thoughts, trying to get the thread back on track.


----------



## tech/a (8 July 2020)

Perspective gets lost.
Due to some form of control.

Un restrained around 7% of the population would die
before a vaccination is found that's around 490 million.

If you dont think that would impact life it self let alone 
The Markets then your dreaming. Panic--you've seen 
nothing yet!!

Everyone knows better---yet now one knows!

Carry on ---Covid 19 will!


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Not sure what you mean about my mindset and not be invested frog, I have tons of skin in the game



@qldfrog continues to make claims that do not match reality.
Older Australian's are, on average, significantly more wealthy than younger Australians and therefore have "most skin in the game."
Large slabs of our economy rely on foot traffic, and that traffic disappears when it's not safe to go out.  The multiplier effects of COV19 affected industries in terms of loss or reduced income and revenue, and loss of jobs, are profound. 
However, States maintaining community confidence - the likes of WA, QLD, SA and Tassie - are now starting to hum along (excluding some sectors largely dependent on international travel/tourism).  For the first time in around 3 months I had to drive around our local shopping centre car park to find a spot, and was queuing behind other waiting cars. 
While I am not a fan of closing borders, given we have not adopted the successful approach of Wuhan in rounding up and relocating all positive COV19 cases in isolation centres, it's the next best step.  And apart from McGowan's approach in WA, quarantining efforts have left a great deal to be desired.  Even today within Victoria it's a shambles.
My personal view is that our greatest failing in "messaging" has been to ignore all international success in case reductions by wearing masks.  Tony Fauci has a 2 point message: *social distance and wear a mask*.  And keep doing it for months after all cases have disappeared.  We have a 3-step message.  Most people know the first 2 points but not the third, and *none* include wearing a mask.  Our so called experts keep saying they are relying on the best scientific evidence for their recommendations, yet they keep sitting on the fence on masks, seemingly not wanting egg on their face for doing a backflip at our expense!


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another way to look at it would be to ponder how much was wasted on the completely pointless Iraq war and the whole "terrorism" thing in general given that 11 September 2001 killed essentially nobody compared to what COVID-19 has already done in the US alone.
> 
> Or how much was spent on the GFC and why were businesses which received assistance not required to publicly acknowledge this support and repay it in full with commercial rates of interest? That alone would fund plenty of medical care and improve lives.
> 
> Etc. This whole argument looks awfully like another case of trying to socialise the costs in the interest of private profit. I'd take it far more seriously if business proposed a middle ground that got things going whilst sharing the cost.




I wouldn't say that fighting terrorism is pointless. There are real threats out there and it seems that most people take for granted the safety and security that they are provided in Australia.

Have a look at a place like Pakistan, where there is a serious terrorist attack just about everyday, to get an idea of the conditions that some people live under.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

An article in the SMH, which seems to echo our thoughts on ASF.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/invest...ividend-pandemic-wipeout-20200702-p558gk.html


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> An article in the SMH, which seems to echo our thoughts on ASF.
> https://www.smh.com.au/money/invest...ividend-pandemic-wipeout-20200702-p558gk.html




3 of the big 4 banks today announced an extension for customers to defer their mortgage and business loans for another 4 months after September. Our banks may be able to weather this global health crisis, however it is just a matter of time for a large bank in the USA, Europe or China to collapse, which may trigger another global financial crisis.


----------



## No Trust (8 July 2020)

Spot on... 



rederob said:


> @qldfrog continues to make claims that do not match reality.
> Older Australian's are, on average, significantly more wealthy than younger Australians and therefore have "most skin in the game."
> Large slabs of our economy rely on foot traffic, and that traffic disappears when it's not safe to go out.  The multiplier effects of COV19 affected industries in terms of loss or reduced income and revenue, and loss of jobs, are profound.
> However, States maintaining community confidence - the likes of WA, QLD, SA and Tassie - are now starting to hum along (excluding some sectors largely dependent on international travel/tourism).  For the first time in around 3 months I had to drive around our local shopping centre car park to find a spot, and was queuing behind other waiting cars.
> ...


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

Scomo is about to address the nation. Are we going to extend the JobKeeper initiative and the JobSeeker increases?


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2020)

@tech/a Where are you getting the 7% figure from?


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> @tech/a Where are you getting the 7% figure from?



The global death rate based on confirmed cases is around 4%.  
Some countries are significantly worse, like Britain with around 15% while countries like Australia barely register at 0.01%. I don't think the "*let 'er rip*" chant would carry any truck with the Poms!


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

@rederob and @wayneL, Can't this go over to the 'general chat' virus thread, it is supposed to be about the economic implications.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2020)

I would like to see the statistical washup as there are a number of reasons the figure may be inaccurate, level of testing etc, Vs demographic makeup and that sort of thing. As well as underlying factors.

the other thing is that I would like to see the number of other access deaths not related to covid but related to the lockdown of both the economy and the NHS system.

In other words how many people died of other diseases through lack of treatment while bored NHS staff made videos on tik tok.

My wife's aunt was one of those. Died a a couple of months ago because of lack of treatment for kidney disease.

I'm not discounting the seriousness of this disease but I think a deeper analysis than just a raw percentage figure is required.


----------



## satanoperca (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> The global death rate based on confirmed cases is around 4%.




Redrob, do you have any rough figures/studies of the amount of people who where asymptomatic and were never tested, maybe a ratio of those tested vs those not tested but may have shown positive if tested. 

While the death rate globally sites at 4.7% of those tested, I wonder if this is even close to the real figure. 

I suggest that possible 4:1 showed where asymptomatic vs confirmed.

This alters the stats by a very large margin if it is the case.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> @rederob and @wayneL, Can't this go over to the 'general chat' virus thread, it is supposed to be about the economic implications.



The economic implications are a factor of the death rate and rates of infection.  The reason Australian States are acting as they are is due to what we have seen from actual overseas experience.  I'm not sure you would be happy to be in a situation where you had better than one chance in ten of dying rather than where we stand at a fraction of that.
Public confidence is essential to economic recovery.  Queensland's internally-driven economy is currently rebounding strongly because people are confident to be out and about, and from Friday we let in cornstalks, croweaters, sandgropers and sundry others while locking out gumeaters.  We hope they stick around to watch the AFL grand final at the Gabba!



satanoperca said:


> Redrob, do you have any rough figures/studies of the amount of people who where asymptomatic and were never tested, maybe a ratio of those tested vs those not tested but may have shown positive if tested.
> 
> While the death rate globally sites at 4.7% of those tested, I wonder if this is even close to the real figure.
> I suggest that possible 4:1 showed where asymptomatic vs confirmed.
> This alters the stats by a very large margin if it is the case.



The best proxy is from Wuhan's recent testing of about 10 million to reveal 300 cases.
What we actually need is a large scale antibody testing effort somewhere, as it's possible many thousands in Wuhan actually went through their epidemic without getting sick so will never appear in any statistical record.


----------



## over9k (8 July 2020)

There's no standardised testing and no honesty/reliable data anyway. We simply can't know any of this with any kind of certainty. 

We need only discuss government and man-on-the-street response(s).


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

Yep, no chance of a sensible outcome, on either front.
Some can draw the longest bow known to man and still look in a mirror, it would be great if we could define some actual share positions, from the general ramblings and posturing over statistics.
There is a thread, on the general chat forum, that covers current actions and statistics of the virus, why bog this down as well.
It isn't a pi$$ing competition, this thread is I thought to give suggestions as to economic and market positions.
Maybe time to find somewhere else.


----------



## over9k (8 July 2020)

Well we have data from sectors that have reopened with vs without virus - AU's seen a spike in business almost everywhere whereas USA mostly has not. Foot traffic has not returned to shopping centres, people are actively choosing (or being ordered by their employer) to continue working from home etc etc.

There IS now a (relatively) medically sensible response from the general public, finally. I made a big post in one of the other threads that i'll repost here in a moment.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> There's no standardised testing and no honesty/reliable data anyway. We simply can't know any of this with any kind of certainty.
> 
> We need only discuss government and man-on-the-street response(s).



Swab tests are pretty much the same across the globe.
Serology tests are a different matter.
We can be pretty sure that if Victoria has more than 100 positive swab tests every day of the week, and it's mostly community spread, then we have a major problem for that State's government.
The man on the street response in non-Victorian States is to keep them out, and other State governments are falling in line with that sentiment.  I feel very sorry for the many millions in Victoria who for months have done the right thing, only now to learn that a few ignorant/selfish assses have landed them in a mess.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

NSW and the ACT are already clearly compromised as we have had many weeks of people crossing the border from VIC unrestricted.

WA, NT, QLD, TAS and SA shouldn't be opening their borders with NSW and the ACT either, at least for a couple of months to see how many VIC based infections have crossed the border into NSW and the ACT.


----------



## over9k (8 July 2020)

Ok here's my post from another thread, it was a bit of a rageresponse so don't take the prickly nature of it to heart: 





Let's go back to before coronavirus for a moment.

Before coronavirus hit, there was already a long and consistent trend of business and work moving away from face to face/bricks and mortar and to distance/online based on purely economic reasons. The ability to order items direct from the manufacturer online, the ability for even a middle-man to sell items from a massive warehouse with rent a tenth of the price per square foot and massive economies of scale to boot, the ability for a business to reduce its necessary office space and therefore rent and fitout costs by 20% if its employees were to stay home/work from home just one day a week (let alone all of them), the ability to talk to someone halfway across the world in seconds virtually for free on a zoom call vs having to fly what could be teams of people for a day straight, pay for all their flights, food, accommodation, lost work, time away from home and so on and so forth were all major competitive advantages and resulted in half the bloody economy undergoing a structural readjustment based on nothing other than economic/cost reduction grounds.

This is the very trend I have been talking about ad nausea since my first comments in this thread.

What coronavirus has done is put that trend on steroids. We haven't seen 5% more people working/ordering stuff from home in the last 6 months, we've seen 10x it. Or whatever. Exact numbers don't really matter - it's a massive increase and that's all we need to worry about.

So from there, we ask ourselves, why? The answer is twofold, but both answers share the same source. Firstly, there's the lockdowns. Government imposed lockdowns literally required that many people work and buy from home. Secondly, human behaviour. Many both workers and businesses have voluntarily decided to keep everyone working from home because A: people themselves don't want to get the virus and B: getting the virus stops you from working. Even if you didn't actually care about your employees, keeping them uninfected makes sense from a purely business point of view. What is key with these two realities is understanding that even if all government imposed lockdowns were lifted, employees and businesses are VOLUNTARILY avoiding human contact. This means that government imposed lockdowns or not, the end result is still very similiar: Avoidance of human contact, i.e working & ordering from home if at all possible.

And you can prove this to yourself quite easily - if it was only about the lockdowns, why hasn't stay-at-home tech fallen off a cliff once the lockdowns have been lifted? Why hasn't everything else taken off like a gunshot? Why haven't we seen an inversion of what we saw previously?

There is a reason why what I have dubbed "stay at home tech" has outperformed all the major indices massively. There is a reason why basically all markets except stay-at-home-tech have tanked every single time bad virus headlines/data has hit the news and stay-at-home-tech has often actually increased on those days and that reason is that it is the VIRUS which is dictating human & business behaviour and therefore markets.

But the deeper point that people like duc are failing to recognise is that the coronavirus has not diverted a previous trend or created a new one - it has simply accelerated something which was ALREADY OCCURRING ORGANICALLY.

There is a reason why all the airline execs are saying that business travel will never return to previous levels. There is a reason why the airbnb ceo is saying his business will never return to previous levels. There is a reason why so many companies are mothballing entire floors of offices or buildings. There is a reason why office rents are down 25% and outright purchase prices are down 40%. There is a reason why jets are being retired and scrapped en masse. There is a reason why chief exec's of office furniture companies are saying their business will never return and they're attempting to pivot to home office fitouts. There is a reason why sales on ebay & amazon are absolutely stratospheric even when their bricks & mortar competitors have been allowed to reopen, and the reason is exactly the same for all of these things:

THIS WAS ALL GOING TO HAPPEN ANYWAY.

This is NOT a divergence from a previous trend, this IS the previous trend. It's just been put into overdrive and 5 years of change has occurred in about 5 months.

This is not to say that this is going to continue in perpetuity. I have never claimed that things will. Once the virus, and therefore the reason for the ACCELERATION of this phenomenon is gone, plenty of people will return to the office and plenty of money will go back to consumables like food rather than tv streaming services or what have you. But as long as the virus remains, so will this acceleration of this ALREADY OCCURRING trend.

But once a vaccine is found, things are NOT going to return to their pre-virus levels because those levels WERE GOING TO CHANGE ANYWAY.

I'll bet you any sum of money you like, absolutely anything, that zoom, amazon, ebay et al will NOT return to their pre-virus levels. Any sum you like.

Anyone who thinks that this is some kind of aberration and/or will simply be reversed once a vaccine is found, or that a single day of bounce in the rest of the market in response to, say, better-than-expected employment data disproves my assertion, is utterly, utterly clueless.

Consumer discretionary, flat for a month:



Consumer staples, flat for almost three months, down 6% in the last month:



Energy, flat for 2.5 months and down 15% over the past month:



Healthcare, flat for almost 3 months:



Industrials, done SFA since the end of april and down 10% over the last month:



Materials, flat for just over a month:



Utilities, flat for three months and down 10% over the last month:



Real estate, flat for three months and down 7% in the last month:



Even communications is flat for the last month after its run up until start of june:



Meanwhile, tech has done almost nothing but climb since the march slump and is up over 50% in that time, 20% in the last three months, with 8% of it being just in the last month:



And my "stay at home tech" like zoom:



Ebay:



Amazon:



Are up 100-150% since their march lows and 20% over just the last month.


I said a month ago when I joined that the U.S would see a 2nd wave/2nd slump. Since then, consumer discretionary is flat, consumer staples is down 5%, energy is down 15%, healthcare is flat, industrials is down 10%, materials is flat, utilities is down 12%, real estate is down 7%, and communications is flat.

Meanwhile, tech is up 3% and my stay-at-home tech is up 20%.

And wouldn't you know it, it was basically bang on a month ago that the run we saw (in some sectors) up until the 8th of june reversed at the exact same time that the virus cases started spiking:




So are you still going to sit here & claim I'm wrong and that this is all just one giant coincidence? That the virus data has nothing to do with anything when *nothing* except tech has gained since the reopenings, and most of the indices have actually fallen? All of which flipped trajectory at the exact same moment (like, to the day) that the virus case trajectory also flipped?

You still want to sit here & claim it's all a giant coincidence and that there's no trend here?



I followed this post up with my personal holdings: 


It's not gambling frog, I've been a bit more sophisticated than just eyeballing them. I do not hold apple, facebook, google, or slack for example.

Here's everything:




Iirc I've had one red day in the last month. One. Even today was green whilst the djia dropped 1.5%.

I've been more than open about what I hold/buy & why - if people want to ignore me then that's fine, but as far as I know, my returns have been miles above everyone else's. 


It is not a coincidence that this all flipped trajectory at the exact same moment the virus case numbers did. I've been calling a 2nd slump/2nd wave since I joined this forum and have received little more than dismissal and ridicule for it. Yet, every other sector is between flat and down 15% over the last month vs my portfolio being up 20% and I have no intention to sell as I firmly believe that it is the virus which is dictating ALL of this (and I've explained why) and the virus is not going away.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yep, no chance of a sensible outcome, on either front.
> Some can draw the longest bow known to man and still look in a mirror, it would be great if we could define some actual share positions, from the general ramblings and posturing over statistics.
> There is a thread, on the general chat forum, that covers current actions and statistics of the virus, why bog this down as well.
> It isn't a pi$$ing competition, this thread is I thought to give suggestions as to economic and market positions.
> Maybe time to find somewhere else.



Most ASX companies have made announcements relating to COV19 impacts so is there a point repeating them here?  Are they not better in detail in company specific threads?
Take Ardent Leisure as an example.  It will get a big lift from QLD theme parks this half, but also has US exposure through its Main Event division.
We might know an impact in part of a company's business, but unless we can tie it all together it's otherwise meaningless.


----------



## Joe Blow (8 July 2020)

Just a reminder to all that we have two active COVID-19 threads. This one is for discussion of the economic impacts of the virus, while the other thread is a more general discussion that is more about the virus itself than the economic impact of it.

Please keep this thread focused on the economic impact (past, present and future) of COVID-19 and take the more general discussion to the other thread.

Thank you.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Most ASX companies have made announcements relating to COV19 impacts so is there a point repeating them here?  Are they not better in detail in company specific threads?
> Take Ardent Leisure as an example.  It will get a big lift from QLD theme parks this half, but also has US exposure through its Main Event division.
> We might know an impact in part of a company's business, but unless we can tie it all together it's otherwise meaningless.



Yep you win Rob, time for me to move on.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok here's my post from another thread, it was a bit of a rageresponse so don't take the prickly nature of it to heart:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




There is a great possibility that NSW and in particular Sydney, will get hit with a second wave now due to VIC; which means that we might have to go back into lockdown again also; causing more economic destruction.

VIC, NSW and the ACT need to be isolated from the rest of the nation ASAP. If NSW and the ACT have it under control in a month or two, then we can join the rest of the nation. VIC should be isolated till the end of the year at least, if we are serious about protecting the rest of the Australian economy.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Most ASX companies have made announcements relating to COV19 impacts so is there a point repeating them here?  Are they not better in detail in company specific threads?
> Take Ardent Leisure as an example.  It will get a big lift from QLD theme parks this half, but also has US exposure through its Main Event division.
> We might know an impact in part of a company's business, but unless we can tie it all together it's otherwise meaningless.



Thanks for that Rob, good point, I hadn't even thought about that being from W.A.


----------



## Klogg (8 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Or how much was spent on the GFC and why were businesses which received assistance not required to publicly acknowledge this support and repay it in full with commercial rates of interest? That alone would fund plenty of medical care and improve lives.




Governments/Reserve Banks bailed our their deposit taking institutions, and any linked to taking them down. Had they not taken these steps, deposits would have been wiped out. It would have been a repeat of the 1930s great depression.

Make no mistake, this was money well spent (not to mention the US government ultimately *made* money on their bailouts)




tech/a said:


> Perspective gets lost.
> Due to some form of control.
> 
> Un restrained around 7% of the population would die
> ...




7% is wrong. At most, it's 4%. It's likely much lower, especially if you consider the asymptomatic cases we're missing.

Test for antibodies show Connecticut has 6 times the number of people with antibodies as there are positive cases:
https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us/news-press/news-detail?articleid=26868&publicId=395

Does this mean the death rate is 1/6th the rate?

The death rate is likely much lower than we're seeing.


----------



## over9k (8 July 2020)

We're never going to know guys, there's no standardised testing, no reliability of whatever has been reported (anyone who believes anything the chinese government says is a moron), no idea how many have died and not been recorded or have died from something else and been recorded.... nothing.

All we can discuss is government and human responses and how to profit from them.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Thanks for that Rob, good point, I hadn't even thought about that being from W.A.



SGL will probably get a slight lift from Victoria's move to lockdown Melbourne for another 6 weeks.


----------



## Sdajii (8 July 2020)

tech/a said:


> Perspective gets lost.
> Due to some form of control.
> 
> Un restrained around 7% of the population would die
> ...




If you were to kill a random 7% of the world's population it would have a very significant impact.

This virus does not kill at random. It almost exclusively picks off people who are already close to death. If I was to get the the 7% of the world's population which was going to die of old age, cancer, etc, and killed them five minutes before they otherwise would have died, I would change nothing at all and effectively I wouldn't have killed anyone. This is much closer to what the virus would do than killing a random 7% of the world's population. Look at the average age of deaths from the virus, by country. It's very close to the average life expectancy of those respective countries. In terms of removal of years of human lives it is very low. In terms of removal of quality years of human life it is extremely low.

Yes, there will be unfortunate individuals. Keep in mind that there have already been unfortunate individuals killing themselves because of loss of jobs, businesses, relationships, etc.

Keep in mind that left unchecked the virus would sweep through fairly quickly and we could move on. Keep in mind that when the country digs itself into an economic hole and many individuals have lost businesses and sold their superannuation at deflated prices, the economic devastation will last literally decades. Just this afternoon I made another sale to a person who told me she was using her super she was allowed to sell to pay me. She's in her mid 30s, I've dealt with many people who have done similar things at a wide range of ages. I've already spent several years saying that I don't expect the pension to be much if anything by the time I'm eligible, and now that seems more likely than ever.

We're not going to have a vaccine anyway. It's not even like we're stopping the virus, we're just kicking the can a short distance down the road at extreme cost.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If you were to kill a random 7% of the world's population it would have a very significant impact.
> 
> This virus does not kill at random. It almost exclusively picks off people who are already close to death. If I was to get the the 7% of the world's population which was going to die of old age, cancer, etc, and killed them five minutes before they otherwise would have died, I would change nothing at all and effectively I wouldn't have killed anyone. This is much closer to what the virus would do than killing a random 7% of the world's population. Look at the average age of deaths from the virus, by country. It's very close to the average life expectancy of those respective countries. In terms of removal of years of human lives it is very low. In terms of removal of quality years of human life it is extremely low.
> 
> ...




I think we either do it properly or we don't do it at all when it comes to the virus suppression strategy.

We shouldn't be opening up our domestic borders with the outbreak in VIC; we should wait at least two months to see how far it has spread to NSW, the ACT and even SA, from VIC.

The whole nation might go back into lockdown again if we get this wrong; the risk too great and we have to get it right the first time, no margin for error.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> SGL will probably get a slight lift from Victoria's move to lockdown Melbourne for another 6 weeks.



That's interesting, why rice growers?
I would have thought the restaurants would have really struggled with a second lockdown, or do you think the sales of rice will take off, it is a point because a six week lockdown is extreme. 
The four week lockdown in W.A stripped the shelves of pasta and rice, so good point a six week lockdown may send them into a real frenzy. 
I am seriously considering Kimberly Clarke as an option, they already process fine particulate paper, so to import or adapt equipment to supply different protective devices may not be too difficult.
Even after the virus, one would think a home sourced supplier, may be better patronised.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If you were to kill a random 7% of the world's population it would have a very significant impact.
> 
> This virus does not kill at random. It almost exclusively picks off people who are already close to death. If I was to get the the 7% of the world's population which was going to die of old age, cancer, etc, and killed them five minutes before they otherwise would have died, I would change nothing at all and effectively I wouldn't have killed anyone. This is much closer to what the virus would do than killing a random 7% of the world's population. Look at the average age of deaths from the virus, by country. It's very close to the average life expectancy of those respective countries. In terms of removal of years of human lives it is very low. In terms of removal of quality years of human life it is extremely low.
> 
> ...



Deaths is a small part of the equation.
People testing positive should not be at work and will generally not be returning to work for at least 2 weeks
Workplaces with people who have tested positive spend a fortune in deep cleans, usually after days or longer of closure.
Some workplaces have to close completely for weeks or longer as a result of multiple infections.
All these instances have economic multipliers.
Sweden got it mostly right except for the fact they forgot to quarantine older people.  The USA has never come close to getting it right.
Some Asian countries were a heck of a lot smarter and have maintained a stringent testing and tracing regime.
Australia is the lucky country.
I still do not understand why in Australia we have never tested so called "essential workers" who still actively cross multiple State borders.  For that matter, serology tests are quick and cheap and could have solved a lot of the border crossing problems in respect of people who never resided within cooee of COV19 hotspots.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> SGL will probably get a slight lift from Victoria's move to lockdown Melbourne for another 6 weeks.



I'm also thinking local tour providers and leisure equipment(caravans, camper trailers, motorhomes etc), may see an upsurge.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That's interesting, why rice growers?
> I would have thought the restaurants would have really struggled with a second lockdown, or do you think the sales of rice will take off, it is a point because a six week lockdown is extreme.
> The four week lockdown in W.A stripped the shelves of pasta and rice, so good point a six week lockdown may send them into a real frenzy.
> I am seriously considering Kimberly Clarke as an option, they already process fine particulate paper, so to import or adapt equipment to supply different protective devices may not be too difficult.
> Even after the virus, one would think a home sourced supplier, may be better patronised.




To think that we grow rice in this country, without a large scale water infrastructure network that straddles our entire East Coast States, is crazy. Rice is one of the most water intensive crops on the planet.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I'm also thinking local tour providers and leisure equipment(caravans, camper trailers, motorhomes etc), may see an upsurge.



Typo - sorry - meant Star City Entertainment Group = SGR.
I was looking at SGL's chart earlier today to see if it was worth a punt and slipped up on the codes.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

Estimates of a $6 billion hole in the VIC economy now with this 6 week lockdown.

Safer to keep all our domestic borders closed I think, until we are 100% certain that we have this virus under control in all states and territories.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Estimates of a $6 billion hole in the VIC economy now with this 6 week lockdown.
> 
> Safer to keep all our domestic borders closed I think, until we are 100% certain that we have this virus under control in all states and territories.



Victoria will really show where the weaknesses are in the economy, a lot of companies that struggled through, will now go to the sword.
So it should give an indicator, to what areas of the economy, are really stretched.
Just my opinion.


----------



## IFocus (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Deaths is a small part of the equation.
> People testing positive should not be at work and will generally not be returning to work for at least 2 weeks




A very fit 40 year old couple in my street were 8 weeks and 5 weeks in bed with the virus, lots of talk about people not having a problem less so for those that do which I think is higher than reported.

That's a direct impact on the economy right there.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Victoria will really show where the weaknesses are in the economy, a lot of companies that struggled through, will now go to the sword.
> So it should give an indicator, to what areas of the economy, are really stretched.
> Just my opinion.




Yes, I tend to agree. I just hope that we don't follow the same path here in Sydney.

Our NSW Police and ADF do their job well and I feel confident that our Southern border is secure; however we had a flight in today from Melbourne, that originated internationally, which was never quarantined.

If Sydney goes back into lockdown: it will be a disaster for Australia; psychologically and economically.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Yes, I tend to agree. I just hope that we don't follow the same path here in Sydney.
> 
> Our NSW Police and ADF do their job well and I feel confident that our Southern border is secure; however we had a flight in today from Melbourne, that originated internationally, which was never quarantined.
> 
> If Sydney goes back into lockdown; it will be a disaster for Australia, psychologically and economically.



That is so true, if NSW goes into lockdown, it is game over IMO and I dont even live there.


----------



## rederob (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is so true, if NSW goes into lockdown, it is game over IMO and I dont even live there.



Are you in the right thread .


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Are you in the right thread .




Sydney is the financial capital of the Southern Hemisphere.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Are you in the right thread .



NSW is the epicentre of Australian economic activity, anything that has a chatostrophic effect there affects the Australian economy, whether we like it or not.
If NSW takes a major hit, I think the ASX will, you may think differently and you can post up your reasons.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> NSW is the epicentre of Australian economic activity, anything that has a chatostrophic effect there affects the Australian economy, whether we like it or not.
> If NSW takes a major hit, I think the ASX will, you may think differently and you can post up your reasons.




The ASX took a decent hit yesterday and today with Melbourne going into lockdown.


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## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

Our Chief Health Officer in NSW should be sacked after today with the flight into Sydney that wasn't quarantined, considering the Ruby Princess fiasco.

How many people will lose their jobs because of this mistake, if we go back into lockdown in Sydney.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (8 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Our Chief Health Officer in NSW should be sacked after today with the flight into Sydney that wasn't quarantined, considering the Ruby Princess fiasco.
> 
> How many people will lose their jobs because of this mistake, if we go back into lockdown in Sydney.




I can do the job, do it better, and do it for half the price.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Really?, drama of endoctrinement and sacrifice of generations for maybe a few above 70s.
> You save a few to kill more
> Honestly amazed by your and @Smurf1976 attitude there, full respect for the individuals, so obviously, and i hope you guys have done the same: i ask myself, could i be wrong?
> I am no reb rob here
> ...




There are multiple issues in all of this. Among others:

One is the direct health impacts from the virus the long term impacts of which are unknown. As has been pointed out that's not really the subject of this thread, although obviously if enough people die well then that's not good for GDP beyond the short term funeral boom.

On the economic side there are multiple issues.

One is about moral hazard and whether society should socialise the cost of poor business decisions?

Concentrating a company's workforce in a single large building, failing to insure for the risk of a pandemic or to hold adequate cash reserves internally, failing to have reasonable inventory levels, failing to diversify supply chains and so on.

If company A got it right and is doing just fine while company B is screaming for lockdowns to end because they're about to go broke, well capitalism does have an answer for that.

Another issue is about the march of progress and as others have noted, the pandemic is simply accelerating trends that were already there. Trends which in most cases are away from the very things which could be seen as iconic symbols of 20th century business - big skyscrapers, hierarchical corporate structures and promotion of those who engage in the best "water cooler chat" not those who are best at actually making the company money.

Large offices are not an overly productive environment indeed they tend to drive those who want to get on with the job crazy. A quick Google search tells me that the average office worker is actually working 30 - 50% of the time and the rest is idle chatter about non-work subjects, engaging in "visibility" and so on.

Now there are going to be businesses who realise that there's money to be saved in this "work from home" thing via productivity, reduced management and accommodation costs and who stick with it. Those businesses then gain an advantage over competitors who stick with the higher cost structure of big offices, lower productivity and more overheads.

Relating to that is the issue of one location versus another and in the Australian context that's a big one. The issues relating to lockdowns and so on are just another one on the list of reasons why someone would choose to live somewhere other than a big city.

No surprise then to find that it's the states which don't have the big cities which are fighting the hardest to be virus-free. The idea that SA needs to actively patrol the border to keep Victorians out is a concept that would have brought laughter not too long ago but it's reality right now.

All of a sudden those who live in apartments in Melbourne are taking an interest in suburban houses on their own land in the smaller cities and contemplating how they could make this work? All of a sudden that big city address is not so appealing at all.

No surprises then that it's NSW and Victoria that have been keen on opening things up whilst the smaller states have taken a much more cautious line. There's an advantage in elimination if it can be done and it's simply a matter of business that those who can gain economically by doing it will try to do so. It's no different to WA gaining from minerals or Tasmania from water resources or Queensland from the climate and so on. If there's an opportunity then most places will grab it.


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## satanoperca (8 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Our Chief Health Officer in NSW should be sacked after today with the flight into Sydney that wasn't quarantined, considering the Ruby Princess fiasco.
> 
> How many people will lose their jobs because of this mistake, if we go back into lockdown in Sydney.




Let the virus rip, it is more predictable than our pollies and govnut officials trying to contain the unstoppable: nature.


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## over9k (8 July 2020)

Kogan keeps spiking in response to all of this, so there's that.

The same rules of market response to the virus apply everywhere guys. I don't have much money in the ASX, but kogan's one of them  


Still, all the travel related stuff etc has been kicked back 6 weeks basically. None of the reopenings have been cancelled - they've just blocked victoria. There's still plenty of pent up demand and here, unlike in the USA, people feel safe to go & do stuff.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Kogan keeps spiking in response to all of this, so there's that.
> 
> The same rules of market response to the virus apply everywhere guys. I don't have much money in the ASX, but kogan's one of them
> 
> ...



They went for a spp, i participated...usually a spp means that the management believes the price is overstretched..
But yes i own.
And kgn fell today in line..a bit more than the xjo...hum


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## over9k (8 July 2020)

Just saw on the news that the passengers which flew into & left sydney airport without being screened by nsw were actually screened in vic before they left, so I don't see how they're going to spread anything unless they were false negatives?

Everything else is a disaster though. Vic on lockdown for 6 weeks, act delaying reopening for a fortnight, everyone have closed borders to vic. WA reconsidering reopening on the 18th.

So the borders to everywhere except vic are getting reopened, but the business restrictions aren't.


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## over9k (8 July 2020)

Related to the thread: 

One of the economic implications of this outbreak has been a lot of stimulus. Apparently the white house is wanting/now calling for their next lot before the august congressional recess. The politicians are just bickering about what it looks like. Futures are up there. 

Here in aus, there was already a lot of resistance to ending the jobkeeper etc package when it was scheduled to, and with this victorian outbreak, I suspect that's now going to get postponed. 

In other words, the more virus we get, the more stimulus we get.


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## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Are you in the right thread .



The result of a second lockdown on stressed companies is starting to become apparent.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...lapse-in-second-lockdown-20200708-p55a4e.html
From the article:
_Thousands of businesses in inner-Melbourne face closure, with estimates more than 15 per cent could permanently shut their doors due to the cumulative effects of two lockdowns.

City of Melbourne data shows the municipality's hospitality industry contributed $2.5 billion to the Victorian economy before the pandemic struck, but just 45 per cent of food businesses managed to keep operating during the six-week April and May lockdown.
Lord mayor Sally Capp said further restrictions, which take effect from 11.59pm on Wednesday, would spell disaster for many businesses_.

If an outbreak caused a concurrent shutdown of Sydney, I think the Government would be in a quandary as to how to go forward.


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## over9k (8 July 2020)

There'll be a rescue package. They're not going to let their entire cbd go broke. 

Too many politicians with too many investments that they don't want to see lost


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## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> There'll be a rescue package. They're not going to let their entire cbd go broke.
> 
> Too many politicians with too many investments that they don't want to see lost



I hope you are right, but as has happened many times through history, someone will step in to take the place of those who lose everything.
Sad but true, one persons pain is another persons gain, in these times.


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## over9k (8 July 2020)

Nah no way. There's no way there won't be some kind of government action. Maybe we'll even see the jobkeeper etc ended for everyone except victoria in the same way that travel's reopened for everyone except vic.


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## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Nah no way. There's no way there won't be some kind of government action. Maybe we'll even see the jobkeeper etc ended for everyone except victoria in the same way that travel's reopened for everyone except vic.



I certainly hope so, it must be hard going for the Vics at the moment.


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

They all went out screeching black lives matter etc when everyone told them not to do it because it would spread the virus like wildfire and they went & did it anyway, so my sympathy is absolutely zero. 

You reap what you sow.


----------



## over9k (9 July 2020)

Also:


In news that is no surprise to me at all, even on a green day in virus infected america, tech still leads the pack.




It's the same on both red and green days - tech's the best place to be. Highest gains, lowest losses. It's the best place to be in BOTH scenario's.

My stay-at-home tech is actually up significantly more than the tech sector as a whole today too, just like it is on every other day. It also doesn't drop on the red days - even when tech is negative, my stay-at-home stuff still climbs. I've had one red day in the last month. 

I have absolutely no intention to sell any of my positions and will actually soon be opening up more. I'm still about 30-35% cash at the moment and will be deploying the entire remainder.

What I am saying is that this still has legs yet.


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## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

Except the vast majority of Victoria’s cases have been transmitted from returned travellers to security at the hotel, and not from the protests...

I also noticed your entire portfolio is tech, can’t wait for the tech correction and your failed diversification.....


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

You sure about that spaniel? Cases spiked shortly after the protests and the first cases were even linked to people who were at them. Contact tracing becomes impossible from there on out.


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## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...k-lives-matter-protests-family-spike/12391628

But please, don’t stop the bigotry just for us, we have to get our entertainment from somewhere while we can’t go to the footy.


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

You know you're dealing with a left wing loon when the word "bigot" is deployed. What's next, calling me a fascist?

First you said it was return travellers giving it to hotel security, then you give me a link saying it's family gatherings. Which is it?

The idea that mass gatherings of people, any mass gatherings of people, not necessarily but also including a protest, do not spread the virus, is absolutely laughable. I'd be saying the same thing about any idiots which formed crowds.


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## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

I actually fall around where the UK Tories sit on the spectrum, and repeatedly vote Liberal. I just don’t appreciate people making unsubstantiated claims, or trying to tie a political agenda to everything - both of which you managed to do in a single post. We’re here to discuss the economic implications of COVID, yet you have somehow mistaken that for discussing sensationalist news headlines and bringing your own political views into it.


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

I'll repeat my previous statement:

The idea that mass gatherings of people, any mass gatherings of people, not necessarily but also including a protest, do not spread the virus, is absolutely laughable.

There is no partisan agenda here - I'm no fan of the liberals or the tories.


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## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

over9k said:


> First you said it was return travellers giving it to hotel security, then you give me a link saying it's family gatherings. Which is it?
> 
> The idea that mass gatherings of people, any mass gatherings of people, not necessarily but also including a protest, do not spread the virus, is absolutely laughable. I'd be saying the same thing about any idiots which formed crowds.




You so dearly follow the news in your stock market analysis, yet haven’t even been able to keep up with news at home? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-02/victoria-hotel-quarantine-breaches-inquiry-launched/12414612

I’m going to believe doctors over politicians and a simpleton.

Also, don’t be a ****. You edited your post while I was replying.


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

Oh look, more name calling!

You strike me as the typical kind of highly educated fool who thinks something can only be assumed true if it's proven in some kind of academic study. I deal with guys like you all the time. People with all the training & education in the world but absolutely zero common sense or intuition/gut instinct whatsoever. 

If I traded based on academic studies and ABC news articles, I'd go broke within about five days.  

I'll repeat myself a third time: The idea that a mass gathering of people doesn't spread the virus is absolutely ridiculous. Just because you can't prove it doesn't mean it didn't happen.


----------



## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

You wouldn’t know me from Joe Bloggs, but this isn’t the first time you’ve applied sweeping generalisation to people you don’t know a thing about.

As always with everyone who disagrees with you, you have supplied exactly 0 sources of evidence other than your own “gut feel”. I have provided 2 sources of information with evidence supplied by Doctors who are specialists in disease and virus transmission. You don’t need an academic study, just basic credible evidence from a 30 second google search is normally good enough. Somebody’s say-so isn’t exactly a compelling argument. I have a gut feeling I’m going to win Powerball tomorrow but guess what, I won’t.

I’m sensing a slight chip on your shoulder against people with higher education as you jumped to that conclusion far too quickly, and you are far too hostile towards it.

Trading on gut instinct/intuition is called gambling. Highly recommend visiting here if it’s becoming an issue for you: https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/

Trading on what you call “academic studies” makes billions of dollars per year. Every analyst/quant globally has some form of higher education in “academic studies”, and use it to become successful.


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## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

Some words of advice, highly recommend applying them here as a minimum but I’m sure would be helpful in other aspects of your life:

People will get along with you better, listen to and accept your opinions more often, and generally be more welcoming towards you if you drop the permanent “I’m right your wrong” attitude, and stop the repetitive attacking and petulant arguing that you seem to continually display. 

We’re all friends here, we all have a common goal and a common interest. It should be easy for us to bond and have healthy debate, but damn do you make that difficult.


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

Ahahaha oh my god where to even begin with this.

I said "you strike me as the kind of person that needs academic studies to know something" and you replied with "I have provided sources and you have not". Like, could you have proven me any more right?

Next you call gut instinct/understanding, or intuition, how about 95% of all business decisions are made, which you would know if you'd spent even five minutes running a business, to be "gambling" (lol).

And then you think I have some kind of chip on my shoulder against the obviously so much cleverer and so much more sophisticated and educated people (like you, right?).

Well newsflash kid, I have 13 years of trading under my belt along with 1.5 bachelor's degrees and two masters. I know what value there is and isn't in your way of thinking. The fact that you think your way of understanding things is the only and/or superior way to understand things is precisely what tells me just how clueless (and young, which I can tell by the type of clueless) you actually are.

Only students and at best fairly fresh uni grads think (and talk) the way you do.

You're not very old, are you?


----------



## Sdajii (9 July 2020)

over9k said:


> They all went out screeching black lives matter etc when everyone told them not to do it because it would spread the virus like wildfire and they went & did it anyway, so my sympathy is absolutely zero.
> 
> You reap what you sow.




The vast majority of Victorians didn't go to the protests. I sure as heck didn't go. I haven't been sick, I haven't done anything risky. I'm locked down. Most Victorians can say the same. Your attitude is appalling.


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## Spaniel14 (9 July 2020)

This is tiring.

1) A news article isn’t an academic study. It’s a news article. Your 2 Masters degrees should have taught you what constitutes credible research evidence?

2) Not a single successful business makes business decisions on gut feel. Go ask any CEO if they operate their business on gut feel. Ever heard of due diligence? Every business decision is made with the most educated and factual view possible, to minimise the risk of things going bad. If your making business decisions on a whim, you’ll quickly fail.

3) So you started trading at 17? Considering trading accounts require you to be 18 for credit checks. 1.5 bachelor degrees (you can’t get half a degree, and you can’t claim you completed part of a degree. You either finish it or you don’t) and 2 Masters by the age of 30, I’m surprised you don’t have a PhD, MBA and MD under your belt as well? Or is it just more unsubstantiated drivel?

I’m not in a position where I need to prove myself to a random person on the internet, my self esteem hasn’t quite dropped that low where I’m looking for approval at every opportunity. So I will ignore the jibes about “kiddo” and calling me clueless... at least I don’t think businesses make impulse decisions on gut feel (that gave me a right crack up!)


----------



## over9k (9 July 2020)

Sure, but there wasn't exactly a lot of public outrage/uproar against the protests going ahead was there?

edit: post i replied to was deleted?


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## jbocker (9 July 2020)

Hey can we get this back on track. We all don't mind a chip now and then, but there is little value in the bickering for a page or so. I am sure you both can contribute good arguments on subject without sledging.


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## Smurf1976 (9 July 2020)

It's not my role to moderate this forum but I'll say it anyway - let's focus on the subject not throw stones at each other.

The subject is:

*Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak*

**


----------



## over9k (9 July 2020)

Well we're now at the point where voluntary human behaviour is having as much of an effect as government imposed lockdowns.

In places that controlled the virus, like au or nz, people are returning to face to face stuff because they feel safe to do so. In places like the united states however, even though the lockdowns have been lifted, things like shopping centre foot traffic are still waaaaay down because anything which can be done by distance, is being done by distance.

I could post up a bunch of graphs, data etc but they'd probably be a bit superfluous.

What I'm saying is that if the virus respreads throughout aus, even if all the lockdowns are not reimposed (which victoria shows us they obviously would be), people are not going to return to crowded venues etc even when they have the (legal) option to.

In other words, if the virus spreads through aus, government lockdowns now really won't make much difference to the australian markets because they will have already dropped/people will already be staying home. The U.S data over the past month or so of a reopened country with virus everywhere shows us that the public has FINALLY been spooked by this thing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 July 2020)

over9k said:


> What I'm saying is that if the virus respreads throughout aus, even if all the lockdowns are not reimposed (which victoria shows us they obviously would be), people are not going to return to crowded venues etc even when they have the (legal) option to.




An interesting point there would be possible differences in the types of activity and how they are affected?

As random examples and assuming they can be used legally:

Restaurants, cafes and other places serving food for consumption on the premises.

Nightclubs, pubs and other places where alcohol is the primary or only thing sold apart from the music or other entertainment.

Major ticketed events - sports, concerts etc.

Large informal outdoor gatherings - eg the Adelaide Christmas Pageant attracts an estimated crowd exceeding 300,000 to the Adelaide CBD on one day each year.

Long haul public transport - anything going interstate or overseas.

Urban public transport - within the same city.

Anything involving close contact - hairdressers, beauty salons, massages etc.

And so on. I'm thinking that considerable differences may exist between these things. Eg someone might not be willing to use suburban trains or buses given they could drive instead but they might decide to take the risk of attending a concert given it's either take the risk or miss out completely, there's no direct alternative (well, apart from watching it on a screen). Etc.


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## over9k (9 July 2020)

Agreed - but worth noting that it's quite difficult to, say, eat food or drink beer with a mask on. We also need to think back to the fundamentals of superior vs inferior goods too and wonder which of these things the public thinks it really can do without vs has no choice but to take the risk with. 

I don't see why AU wouldn't see very very similiar patterns of behaviour to the U.S - if the virus was to spread here, all we'd need to do would be to think of australia as being a certain period of time behind the united states.


----------



## qldfrog (9 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Agreed - but worth noting that it's quite difficult to, say, eat food or drink beer with a mask on. We also need to think back to the fundamentals of superior vs inferior goods too and wonder which of these things the public thinks it really can do without vs has no choice but to take the risk with.
> 
> I don't see why AU wouldn't see very very similiar patterns of behaviour to the U.S - if the virus was to spread here, all we'd need to do would be to think of australia as being a certain period of time behind the united states.



Usually 20y behind...
More seriously, it is just a question of when: either that respan in Victoria spreads everywhere or we will have to wait for the next one from an airline pilot delivery freight, an illegal immigrant landing in northern Australia, a torrent straight islander dealing with png.
The notion of staying in a bubble and being safe is ludicrous.so now, tomorrow or next winter, we will get it.let's be real and make sure we are ready for proper treatment and correct society reaction, and live with it...


----------



## over9k (9 July 2020)

Dunno. Huge bounce in the U.S overnight though so we'll see how the ASX does today. 

What we do know with certainty is that there's now at least another 6 weeks before things even begin to return to normal again.


----------



## Klogg (9 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Dunno. Huge bounce in the U.S overnight though so we'll see how the ASX does today.
> 
> What we do know with certainty is that there's now at least another 6 weeks before things even begin to return to normal again.




What people haven't discussed much is what happens when we hit 'normal'. We're seeing extraordinary stimulus and money printing across many countries. So I thought I'd park the 'this is the way to deal with it' and talk about the long-term results of these financial activities.

Right now we're seeing huge unemployment and government deficits. Assuming we get a vaccine or herd immunity, what will the result of this be?

I liken this to something like US spending during WW2. Massive deficits run by government to reach a goal - somewhat similar to now.
Have a read of this section about inflation in the American economy (from here - emphasis my own):

_Between April 1942 and June 1946, the period of the most stringent federal controls on inflation, the annual rate of inflation was just 3.5 percent; *the annual rate had been 10.3 percent in the six months before April 1942 and it soared to 28.0 percent in the six months after June 1946* (Rockoff, “Price and Wage Controls in Four Wartime Periods,” 382)_

Given the massive levels of debt we're seeing worldwide, my own preference would be to go down this path, rather than the deflationary mess Japan are seeing. I'm not sure what the differentiating factors are that cause each scenario though.

If the inflationary environment took hold, you'd see everything go up in price, relative to government currencies. (Australia would have the same result, given the massive government spending, stimulus and tax cuts). As soon as a vaccine hit, total money and credit would increase, so people can afford a lot more.

As a result, my base case is massive asset price inflation over the next five years due to coronavirus.
The biggest risk to this scenario being inflation doesn't take hold - but I don't think we know exactly how to stop/start inflation TBH

Would love to hear other views, especially opposing ones.


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## jbocker (9 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Usually 20y behind...
> More seriously, it is just a question of when: either that respan in Victoria spreads everywhere or we will have to wait for the next one from an airline pilot delivery freight, an illegal immigrant landing in northern Australia, a torrent straight islander dealing with png.
> The notion of staying in a bubble and being safe is ludicrous.so now, tomorrow or next winter, we will get it.let's be real and make sure we are ready for proper treatment and correct society reaction, and live with it...



Appreciate that there is a cost of being in a bubble, and while we are paying for it I sincerely hope we (and eventually the world) are learning massively from it. We are the only larger (western) nation (adding in NZ) that has developed the bubble, and it is susceptible and extremely fragile. We need to know how to keep its advantages minimise the costs of keeping those advantages and be a leading light. Victoria is exactly what we risk into the future, and we will learn how to get on top again. We cant throw in the towel yet.
Hold tough Vic, we are behind you and wish for success.


----------



## IFocus (9 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> Would love to hear other views, especially opposing ones.




Cannot see it being anything but ugly, problem is Governments / Central Banks are far more now prone to intervention on much larger scale applying unproven theory that really no one knows where is will end up.

Not the answer you are looking for


----------



## over9k (9 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> What people haven't discussed much is what happens when we hit 'normal'. We're seeing extraordinary stimulus and money printing across many countries. So I thought I'd park the 'this is the way to deal with it' and talk about the long-term results of these financial activities.
> 
> Right now we're seeing huge unemployment and government deficits. Assuming we get a vaccine or herd immunity, what will the result of this be?
> 
> ...




Well the real problem is the debt burden. That's a chicken that is going to come home to roost eventually. Inflation would indeed ease the debt burden but the reserve bank will also pump interest rates in response to it, which would bone everything. It'd be a classic stagflation damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario. The question I guess would be what the central bank response would be and how much government policy will/will not relate to it. 

People kind of forget that if your interest rate is below your inflation rate you effectively already have negative interest rates. It's kind of amazing how many people forget that when you hear the banging on about negative rates etc on the news. 

The other massive elephant in the room that people forget about is capital flight. Very easy to trigger a metric shiteload of that if you get things wrong too. 


Related to the thread: ASX has bounced this morning after the stellar run on wall st last night, even despite the vic lockdown. Though the vic lockdown was probably priced in the moment it was announced so the drop a couple of days ago was the actual market response to it, not today.


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## jbocker (9 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> Appreciate that there is a cost of being in a bubble, and while we are paying for it I sincerely hope we (and eventually the world) are learning massively from it. We are the only larger (western) nation (adding in NZ) that has developed the bubble, and it is susceptible and extremely fragile. We need to know how to keep its advantages minimise the costs of keeping those advantages and be a leading light. Victoria is exactly what we risk into the future, and we will learn how to get on top again. We cant throw in the towel yet.
> Hold tough Vic, we are behind you and wish for success.



NSW next?
I note we have climbed back to 71 on the ladder (list of countries by total cases of COVID). Best was 72.


----------



## Knobby22 (9 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> NSW next?
> I note we have climbed back to 71 on the ladder (list of countries by total cases of COVID). Best was 72.



We were in the top 10 at the beginning!


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## Klogg (9 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Cannot see it being anything but ugly, problem is Governments / Central Banks are far more now prone to intervention on much larger scale applying unproven theory that really no one knows where is will end up.
> 
> Not the answer you are looking for




In the short term, I agree - a complete mess

As for an unproven theory. Yes, to a degree. We've never printed on this scale before, with inflation so low. But if you look back at history, there's always been an event or series of events triggering inflation.
WW2 printing and removal of the gold standard as a few of those.




over9k said:


> Well the real problem is the debt burden. That's a chicken that is going to come home to roost eventually. Inflation would indeed ease the debt burden *but the reserve bank will also pump interest rates in response to it*, which would bone everything. It'd be a classic stagflation damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't scenario. The question I guess would be what the central bank response would be and how much government policy will/will not relate to it.




In response to the bolded section - I'm not so sure. Right now, their measure of inflation does not include asset prices. And those with most of the debt, also hold most of the assets (it's hard to have significant amounts of debt if it's not backed by an asset). 
If you inflate asset prices, you solve the problem -  and this doesn't show up in CPI



Appreciate the responses so far.


----------



## over9k (9 July 2020)

True but so much consumption is debt financed that I just don't see how we get a consumption bounce/stimulus without some kind of serious side effect. It's either borrow the cash or print it because there sure aren't any savings like a sovereign wealth fund or something waiting for a rainy day such as this one. 

Sometimes you can reach a point where there are no good options.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> let's be real and make sure we are ready for proper treatment and correct society reaction, and live with it...




Trouble is, that's a multi-year strategy realistically and one that won't look overly different to what we're doing now in the medium term.

Slowly let the virus spread so that hospitals can keep up etc. Realistically that means subdued business activity for an extended period in order to implement such a strategy and therein lies the problem. Can business really cope with years of restricted patronage to make that work? We allow them to open but not to the point where too many people are in the restaurant or on the tour bus together. We have AFL games but only once every 3 weeks at any given location, we can play cricket but we cut it to a single day. etc.

For anything other than international tourism, the "bubble" would seem to offer a much faster return to normal if it can be achieved. A fully functioning domestic economy, minus international travel, versus a heavily subdued domestic economy for the next few years but we allow international arrivals.

Even for the parts of the country heavily reliant on tourism, well if Australians in the big cities can't travel overseas then no doubt many could be persuaded to take a trip to the NT or regional WA or Tasmania or wherever.


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## basilio (9 July 2020)

I think one of the most significant consequences of the ongoing COVID epidemic will be a collapse in large areas of consumer activity.
International holiday travel we know is off the radar. There goes many tourist destinations, airlines and associated industries.

Locally restaurants, cinemas, hotels, public sport in fact much of the community public activity is severly affected. These are all important employment bodies as well.

Our tertiary education institutions rely heavily on overseas students. On  top of that those students also underpin  rental properties and consumer spending in Australia.  Maybe someone can find stats on these three industry sectors  and see what impact a 65% drop has on our GDP.

So then we have to consider what impact these contractions will have on

The housing market
The retail sector
Investments in commercial property as well as housing
The banks that currently finance these industries


----------



## basilio (9 July 2020)

But I hasten to add that none of the above consequences will have any effect on the stock market.

I understand that always goes up.


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## basilio (9 July 2020)

Klogg has been looking for a response to the issue of overwhelming debt created by the government to sustain the economy in the last few months.

The fact is take away that input and the full impact of the consequences I outlined would be felt within a fortnight. That is why many people are nervous about the  projected closure of Job Keeper in September and the ratcheting back of unemployment benefits at the same time. To a large extent this why many people are taking a close look at MMT  (Modern Monetary theories) as a response to the situation we face.


----------



## qldfrog (9 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trouble is, that's a multi-year strategy realistically and one that won't look overly different to what we're doing now in the medium term.
> 
> Slowly let the virus spread so that hospitals can keep up etc. Realistically that means subdued business activity for an extended period in order to implement such a strategy and therein lies the problem. Can business really cope with years of restricted patronage to make that work? We allow them to open but not to the point where too many people are in the restaurant or on the tour bus together. We have AFL games but only once every 3 weeks at any given location, we can play cricket but we cut it to a single day. etc.
> 
> ...



Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
Economically this is black and white,.
Yes if there was a real chance of a vaccine or miracle treatment we could lick for a year and justify it by lives saved.
No vaccine, decent treatment available now, this is a lose lose  game to adopt that policy.
Anyway.i have nothing more to add, anyone willing to can look at real casualty rates per infection and mortality rates based on various policies as fully known now.


----------



## IFocus (9 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> In the short term, I agree - a complete mess
> 
> As for an unproven theory. Yes, to a degree. We've never printed on this scale before, with inflation so low. But if you look back at history, there's always been an event or series of events triggering inflation.
> WW2 printing and removal of the gold standard as a few of those.




There is a number (cannot find it) from which no county has recovered (200% ish) note Japan passed that ages ago.


----------



## jbocker (9 July 2020)

basilio said:


> Locally restaurants, cinemas, hotels, public sport in fact much of the community public activity is severly affected. These are all important employment bodies as well.



Not sure I see your point bas, I see the locals attending these more so in the future, as they wont be disappearing overseas to spend their holiday $s.  The locals wont be seen as 'tourists' per-se but still spending some money there. The international tourist is gone but replaced by intrastate and interstate tourists (who would have been international tourists themselves). 
I think there is a market to get COVID safe tourists into Australia.


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## Smurf1976 (9 July 2020)

basilio said:


> International holiday travel we know is off the radar. There goes many tourist destinations, airlines and associated industries.



A lot there will depend on the extent to which Australians take holidays domestically given that they can't go overseas.

As a whole, tourism is a net loss to Australia, it sends more money overseas than it brings in, and if we could redirect 70% of that money not spent overseas into local tourism then it's break even.

The unknown is whether or not Australians unable to travel overseas will instead travel somewhere locally or not.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
> Economically this is black and white,.




Restarting I agree but I'm not sure I'd say they've actually restarted.

A look on Google and various event ticketing sites finds that if you want to go to a small hall somewhere and see an Abba tribute band perform then that seems to be possible but you're out of luck if you're hoping to be in a crowd of 50,000 watching anything major.

There might be the odd exception but a quick search finds a lot of "Cancelled" and "Rescheduled to 2021" for major events but not a lot that's happening in the near future. The cancelled events generally are cancelled as such, there's no current plan to run them at all, whilst the rescheduled events are typically for a very similar date 12 months after the originally scheduled date. Eg the closest Saturday 12 months later, etc, which for annual events in practice means they've skipped 2020 completely and just booked the same performers for 2021.

I'm focusing on major events there as a pretty clear indicator since along with international travel, they're the only thing that doesn't really work in a "bubble" situation and which hasn't already returned in at least some parts of Australia.

That said, well if Europe can reopen without having virus problems well then I'd support Australia doing likewise.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.




Not necessarily.

I have significant concerns about the virus from a medical and broad economic perspective. 

I am currently 85.3% invested in stocks.

Just because I can see a few problems with the band and their sound system doesn't mean I won't dance so long as the music keeps going.


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## Sdajii (10 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Not necessarily.
> 
> I have significant concerns about the virus from a medical and broad economic perspective.
> 
> ...




Brave man...


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## over9k (10 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And that is why it is good to be here, as a sample of people reactions some of them bright but having fundamental visceral reactions.
> It is a given the virus scared will not be invested or much, and will follow @over9k mindset.
> *Not a matter of being right or wrong, but exploiting the sentiments*



Exactly frog - we need to remain focused on what WILL happen, not what we think should. Nobody here is in any position to influence government policy.

We've got another at least 6 weeks before australia begins to return to normal properly. U.S is looking at a vaccine before the shitshow ends.

I'm deploying my remainder 30% cash shortly. I'll be buying some nvidia tomorrow.


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## Knobby22 (10 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Europe is restarted, i have nothing else to say.whereas we are just waiting to be hit again .
> Economically this is black and white,.
> Yes if there was a real chance of a vaccine or miracle treatment we could lick for a year and justify it by lives saved.
> No vaccine, decent treatment available now, this is a lose lose  game to adopt that policy.
> Anyway.i have nothing more to add, anyone willing to can look at real casualty rates per infection and mortality rates based on various policies as fully known now.




Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.

*Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness*

The "lockdown" strategy imposed on much of Victoria will cause psychological and financial stress for many.

Just when it looked as if Australia had control of the epidemic, an explosion of new cases has demonstrated how fragile "control" is in this context.
It is a problem being experienced by many countries: South Korea, Israel and Singapore, for example. While the restrictions are essential and should probably have been introduced a week ago, they will generate controversy.

Confronted by this situation, some economists and social scientists have argued that the economic contraction associated with lockdowns and even strict social distancing is more harmful than the sickness and deaths caused by COVID-19. They suggest that we isolate the most vulnerable "oldies" and let the rest of the community resume normal activities.

Millions would become infected but suffer a mild, "cold-like" illness or no illness at all. With their recovery, the "herd" would be immune and the virus defeated and the venerable vulnerable could then end their isolation.

The above approach needs to be rejected on both ethical and practical grounds.

To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.

To date, infusing antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients into the critically ill has not been encouraging.

4.6 per cent mortality rate among those diagnosed in the US.

The truth is there has been a tendency to underestimate morbidity and mortality in younger people. Many young individuals suffer mightily. Lung and kidney damage can be so severe that life-long problems can be expected.

The range of clinical presentations for COVID-19 infections is remarkable. Severe pain, hallucinations (we know COVID-19 can invade the brain) and overwhelming fatigue are common. Many reports are appearing of "recovered" patients suffering a chronic fatigue-like syndrome months afterwards. Also, increasing numbers of children experience a toxic inflammatory condition resembling Kawasaki Syndrome.

The virus can also induce blood-clotting episodes resulting in strokes and lung clots. And young people also die.

In the Brazilian disaster, 31 per cent of deaths are in individuals younger than 50. In Italy's crisis, 15 per cent were under 40.

The "let it rip" proponents should note that more than 100 Italian doctors attending COVID-19 patients died from the infection.

*Professor John Dwyer is an immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine UNSW.*

You can read the rest of the article at

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...lu-like-illness-20200709-p55aem.html#comments


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## rederob (10 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
> Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.
> 
> *Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness*
> ...



@qldfrog has adopted a political agenda to support his economic ideas.  That's aside from regularly failing basic stats and tossing out ethics.
The quickest economies to recover have much better messaging than Australia, put in place strong contact tracing after implementing early border controls, and have all required wearing of masks.  Locking down hotspots and near 100% testing, rather than broad brush border closures, is also more effective.  China did this for a second wave in both Wuhan and Beijing and, despite Trump's false claims, has tested twice as many people than any other nation.

I am not sure how an A4 sheet of paper displaying a letter of the alphabet stuck to your windscreen proves you don't have COV19 and are "good to go" across any border, as serology testing would be a much better idea.  Anyhow, today QLD's borders open up to these mostly southerners and our State will get a massive cash injection.  It's a shame the "safe" States have not all banded together and "approved" airline travel without restriction, including to and from New Zealand.  I am not sure what they are waiting for... a message from whom? 

The economic balancing act that respective governments are playing do, imho, appear excessively conservative.  However, as an older Australian in a country which has never advocated wearing masks I won't complain.


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## qldfrog (10 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
> Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.
> 
> *Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness*
> ...



So you will have the last word in your rightness.you will not bulge or even look at numbers.yet epidemiology is a number game, nothing else.
Among the blinds, the one eye is King..hope i will not get some PC **** for that insensitive sentence.
Truth matters.


----------



## Knobby22 (10 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> So you will have the last word in your rightness.you will not bulge or even look at numbers.yet epidemiology is a number game, nothing else.
> Among the blinds, the one eye is King..hope i will not get some PC **** for that insensitive sentence.
> Truth matters.




Yes, truth matters. Hence I am quoting a specialist in the field.
You need to provide evidence for your argument instead of the usual culture war arguments which mean nothing to me. Where are your numbers?


----------



## Sdajii (10 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> To start with, we have no confidence that herd immunity is achievable. Most reports looking at antibody levels in recovered individuals suggest that antibodies are generated. However, they might not last beyond three months; and the antibodies might not be effective "neutralisers" of COVID-19.




If this is true, and it probably is, a vaccine is impossible.

So, we come back to asking "What is our endgame?"

If there is no vaccine, we are currently wasting out time and money keeping everyone locked up, causing economic and psychological damage for the sake of delaying the inevitable so that the inevitable comes at a time when we are economically and psychologically in a worse state and thus less able to deal with it.

Economics in this context are simple to understand; less money in the system means less ability to pay for stuff, including essential services, including *healthcare*.

Psychologically, it's not just the people who are emotionally drained and in despair etc (and it's interesting to see how many people who are faring well personally are quick to dismiss the psychological and financial struggles others are faced with, yet fiercely protest any damage at all inflicted on anyone by the virus itself!), but also the fact that we're going to experience an increasing amount of 'emergency fatigue', which means that people are going to be less and less inclined to take personal responsibility for social distancing, hygiene or any form of personal sacrifice. Folks in most of Australia have been quick to smugly say Melbournians are all slack and deserve what they get (even though it happened right after the BLM protests and obviously the vast majority of Melbournians haven't been behaving any differently from the vast majority of other Australians!) and they're going about their business as usual. Most Melbournians are fed up with the situation and will take this round of lockdown far less seriously than the previous one, a pattern you can expect to see universally.

We can either work on an extreme, hardline, erradication strategy (which clearly we're not going to do, it was always unlikely and the boat completely sailed as the BLM protests took place) or we can get on with business as usual/the new normal (*cringe*) and deal with things (which it seems we're not going to do) or we can play this ridiculous game of perpetual stop, start, stop, start, until we get close enough to death by a thousand cuts that we need to stop and do our best to go back to business as usual, but in a weakened state (the worst option of all, but the one we're taking).


----------



## SirRumpole (10 July 2020)

More info on herd immunity.

_"Herd immunity can only be reached by widespread vaccination (but there is currently no vaccine, and it may take a long time before an effective vaccine becomes available) or by individuals falling ill and recovering thereby developing natural immunity against the virus."

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/_


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## over9k (10 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Folks in most of Australia have been quick to smugly say Melbournians are all slack and deserve what they get (even though it happened right after the BLM protests and obviously the vast majority of Melbournians haven't been behaving any differently from the vast majority of other Australians!) and they're going about their business as usual. Most Melbournians are fed up with the situation and will take this round of lockdown far less seriously than the previous one, a pattern you can expect to see universally.




Yes but it's not like there was uproar from the general victorian public once they found out that the protesters were going to go ahead with it despite everyone telling them not to was there?

Even now they're still in denial about what's caused the spread trotting out the classic "can't prove it empirically therefore didn't happen" bull****.

Lock the place down properly for long enough and the virus will eventually be gone.

Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen. 


This goes for everyone: can we please give the political BS a rest? This thread is not about our personal opinions on government policy, only what we think the policies (and street level behaviours) are going to be and how to profit from them.


----------



## Klogg (10 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Sorry, can't let this be the conclusion.
> Gotta post the counter argument from a Sydney immunologist.
> 
> *Make no mistake: COVID-19 infection is not a mere 'flu-like' illness*
> ...




We can post counter arguments from varous 'experts' ad-nauseum.

Professor of pathology:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now


Other editorial:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/16/the-lockdown-is-killing-people-too/


Even the WHO promote the Swedish approach:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/


Another epidemiologist here:


The list goes on. There are opposing opinions, so we have no certainty either way. We must take an educated guess at the best path.

I will leave with this note. The median age of suicide in the US is ~50YO. The median COVID death is ~82YO.
Using the life expectancy value of 78Years in the US, the average (median) person dying from COVID has already lived longer than expected.
On the contrary, we're losin ~28years of human life per suicide.

Even if you assume the person dying from COVID had 2 years left, each suicide is the equivalent of 14 COVID deaths.


Nobody has the complete answer. Rather, we should ask ourselves which is doing the most damage. (And we should use data to prove it, not statistical anomalies of a 40YO dying from COVID)


----------



## Sdajii (10 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Yes but it's not like there was uproar from the general victorian public once they found out that the protesters were going to go ahead with it despite everyone telling them not to was there?




Yeah, there sort of was... Most of us thought it was insane. 



> Even now they're still in denial about what's caused the spread trotting out the classic "can't prove it empirically therefore didn't happen" bull****.




Agreed.



> Lock the place down properly for long enough and the virus will eventually be gone.




Impossible for multiple reasons. If it was ever possible, it would have needed to start back in February, maybe March. Just maybe, maybe, it could still have been possible before the protests. Now it is impossible for multiple reasons, primarily the greater numbers and spread which would delay the process several months, and all the while we have emergency fatigue increasing.



> Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.




Agreed, partially. It won't happen soon because it would require the government to admit they were wrong, that would be political suicide so they won't do it. They should, but they won't. Eventually though, it is inevitable, and the longer they leave it the worse it will be. Unfortunately they will drag it out as long as possible and we will all suffer for it.




> This goes for everyone: can we please give the political BS a rest? This thread is not about our personal opinions on government policy, only what we think the policies (and street level behaviours) are going to be and how to profit from them.




You mean we shouldn't do exactly what you spent that entire post doing? Gotcha.


----------



## rederob (10 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> We can post counter arguments from varous 'experts' ad-nauseum.
> 
> Professor of pathology:
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now
> ...



There are economies which relatively quickly got over COV19 or largely avoided its worst effects, yet we did not and have not adopted best practice from them.


----------



## qldfrog (10 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Also, there's no way they're just going to reopen everything & allow massive spread. Not a snowball's chance in hell. To do so would be to say that the lockdowns already imposed were pointless/that we've been through all of this for nothing. This will NOT happen.



We often disagree, mostly on "style" but you nailed it.
Knowledge is here, i do believe it is shared with our leaders and they understand how cornered they are, so my view of CSL delivering in fanfare a fake vaccine soon, nothing better than saline solution but who will really care, and we can turn the page..buy CSL


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## Klogg (10 July 2020)

rederob said:


> There are economies which relatively quickly got over COV19 or largely avoided its worst effects, yet we did not and have not adopted best practice from them.




This is a good point. 

May I ask which ones you're thinking of? We should look back in 3months time or so and compare them to the outcome in Sweden (or other countries that didn't go through 'strict' lockdown)

Nice learning exercise.


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## jbocker (10 July 2020)

Need to add in cultural differences (and acceptance their decisions would suit our culture), timing of decisions that were made wrt the current rate of infection, the political outlook and approach of the leader. Many others like location.
EXTREMELY Difficult to get the right answer. At the end of the day we might not get a best answer, and we suffer a losing battle regardless of our approach.


----------



## rederob (10 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> This is a good point.
> 
> May I ask which ones you're thinking of? We should look back in 3months time or so and compare them to the outcome in Sweden (or other countries that didn't go through 'strict' lockdown)
> 
> Nice learning exercise.



Vietnam, Jordan, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and many more.
China perfected "lockdowns," isolating positive cases, and mass testing.
Iceland and Denmark proved the effectiveness of extensive testing.
Many European countries showed the value of quickly "flattening the curve."
Unsurprisingly, wearing of masks has been advocated in most countries after they failed to appreciate how quickly the virus could get away.


----------



## basilio (10 July 2020)

COVID is a wicked problem. Beyond a truly effective vaccine there is no good solution - just varying degrees of bad.  Our knowledge of the consequences of the illness is constantly being updated and it doesn't get more promising. In that context I think we need to respect the fact that death is only one serious consequence and that ongoing serious complications can make it a very dangerous proposition if it spreads right across the community. Ignoring that issue in favour of a laissaz faire approach to control seems a choice only   sociopathic, willfully blind, scientific illiterates like Donald Trump or Bolsonoro would countenance. 

Back to the  economic implications of COVID. The ABC has a critical  practical analysis of how the layering of personal  and business debt is building a very dangerous situation for individuals the banks and the banking system.

Too many elements  to simplify  into a few words but its a situation that is certainly applicable to 10's of thousands of people.

*Shaun's apartment, Maria's business and Gary's mortgage are all linked by one thing: deferred debt*
The dominoes in the Australian economy are stacked in line and one can easily topple several others.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...lian-economy-set-to-fall-coronavirus/12433768


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## Knobby22 (10 July 2020)

And letting it run loose doesn't work economically anyway.


Klogg said:


> We can post counter arguments from varous 'experts' ad-nauseum.
> 
> Professor of pathology:
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-reasons-to-end-the-lockdown-now
> ...




The virus only went through a small proportion of Italy and as the article stated many doctors died. Its not a statistical anomaly.And as that expert said the long term effects are nasty. It crosses the blood brain barrier. Will everyone who catches it end up getting so form of early onset Alzheimers? Like how you get lupus from chick pox? We don't know.

I do think that article from the Spectator makes some good points. I am for a controlled approach as is occurring throughout the rest of Australia, it is just maddening that Melbourne has let the country down.

Certain elements of the press keep touting Sweden. The Swedish experiment has failed. I posted that link earlier.. Even Trump is having a go at them saying how much better he has done.

What happens if you don't control it? Recovery stalls And that is the basic problem. You have the sickness, the death, the long term health effects and a bad economy.

_In Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, which had edged ahead of other states during their drive in May to reopen commerce, retail foot traffic has slipped below levels elsewhere, information from data firm Unacast showed._

_The data, which covers the period through July 3, is not representative of retail sales. But it does highlight the dilemma many economists and health experts have raised from the earliest days of the outbreak of novel coronavirus: Inattention to health protocols like wearing of masks and social distancing combined with a rush to reopen businesses could lead to worse outcomes for both public health and the economy._

“A mismanaged health crisis across many states means short-term gains will transform into medium-term sluggishness as social distancing relaxation is reversed and virus fear lingers,” Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in an analysis on Thursday. *“It’s now evident that the economy is entering Q3 (third quarter) with much less momentum than previously anticipated.”
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/phone-data-shows-the-retail-recovery-has-stalled-in-covid-hotspots*

I just think letting it spread at this stage is a bad idea. If the vaccine doesn't work, then we will have to reconsider it. I would rather watch and wait and slowly open up our economy.


----------



## IFocus (10 July 2020)

Sweden has a very long way to go to herd immunity

"Sweden’s overall response to the virus has potentially left more people exposed to it, raising questions about herd immunity. But the data have so far been mixed. In a study published in June, the Public Health Agency found that antibodies were only found in *6.1%* of the samples collected nationwide in the week ending May 24.

An earlier analysis of 50,000 tests by Werlabs AB, a private company, showed that about *14%* of people tested over six weeks in the Stockholm region developed Covid-19 antibodies."

How ever

"The rate of Covid-19 infections is declining in Sweden, which health authorities said is thanks to citizens voluntarily adhering to *social distancing guidelines*."

Still the reasoning is not totally unreasonable in theory

"Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, has maintained that his strategy will prove more sustainable in the long run than the sudden lockdowns and reopenings adopted elsewhere. That’s as some places, such as Beijing, that had appeared to bring the virus under control recently saw fresh outbreaks.

“Part of the reason for Sweden’s less stringent approach was the view that restrictions would need to be in place for some time, and there were doubts about whether society would be compliant with stricter measures over a long period,” said Johanna Jeansson of Bloomberg Economics."

Its all one big experiment no matter which way we go, fact is the future is still uncertain and the rest of the world is locked down in some form or other.

How you treat you weak and elderly is always a measure of your civilisation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ections-drop-after-steady-distancing-patterns


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> We can either work on an extreme, hardline, erradication strategy (which clearly we're not going to do, it was always unlikely and the boat completely sailed as the BLM protests took place) or we can get on with business as usual/the new normal (*cringe*) and deal with things




I think a key issue there is that there's a reluctance to accept that "the new normal" may in some aspects be extremely different to the recent pre-pandemic past.

Different to the point that some businesses and concepts are dead, kaput, simply unviable going forward.

Those on the losing side of that aren't going to be at all keen on accepting it and will fight all the way.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> Nobody has the complete answer. Rather, we should ask ourselves which is doing the most damage. (And we should use data to prove it, not statistical anomalies of a 40YO dying from COVID)




Agreed but we also need to consider why such things occur?

If the answer to why someone commits suicide is an economic one then we need to consider how society allocates available resources. 

We're still funding the military, we're still paying CEO's ludicrous sums of money and so on. I'm not against capitalism, but if we've got someone earning $100 million a year meanwhile they're laying off staff who then kill themselves well then that's an argument for wider distribution of wealth far more than it's an argument for wider distribution of COVID-19.


----------



## over9k (10 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You mean we shouldn't do exactly what you spent that entire post doing? Gotcha.



Nope I never talked about what should be done, only what will/will not. Very different things.

What WILL be done is more lockdowns. Tas has announced a border reopening delay just now.


----------



## Knobby22 (10 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Nope I never talked about what should be done, only what will/will not. Very different things.
> 
> What WILL be done is more lockdowns. Tas has announced a border reopening delay just now.




Yea heard they put in a moat between us in Victoria.


----------



## rederob (10 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Yea heard they put in a moat between us in Victoria.



Gladys has sent a message to Donald asking him he got the Mexicans to pay for the wall.
They're all over it.


----------



## over9k (10 July 2020)

Lol tasmania doesn't have any money to pay for ANYTHING


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Lol tasmania doesn't have any money to pay for ANYTHING




It doesn't need to - sea level rise a few million* years ago did the job already. 

*I haven't checked exactly when but you'd only need to drop the sea level 80m or so to be able to drive across, Bass Strait's mostly very shallow water. That has good aspects in terms of running cables and pipes across, and it has bad aspects with swell and passengers on ships getting a rough ride at times.

I do wonder though whether anyone will try and sneak across to Tas or another state as freight? That is, with themselves inside a shipping container?

I assume the authorities are inspecting them all?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It doesn't need to - sea level rise a few million* years ago did the job already.
> 
> all?



try 8000 years ago.


----------



## over9k (10 July 2020)

Just saw a headline saying "UK job vacancies decline despite economy reopening" and that really crystallises the whole thing really: People are now at the point of voluntarily isolating, avoiding human contact etc. 

You always know you've got a real headache with something when the news headlines contain the word "despite".


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> try 8000 years ago.




I'll take your word for it as I wasn't around to see it happen.....


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 July 2020)

I think one issue resulting from the second lockdown in Victoria and the extension of travel bans to other states is that consumers are going to be extremely cautious next time it's lifted.

If someone's gone from one state to another in a manner which was perfectly legal at the time, and now can't come home without a quarantine bill that many couldn't afford to pay, well that's a serious disincentive to future travel. There's a few reports of that in the mainstream media and it'll resonate pretty loudly with the average person who has limited time and money available that interstate travel is extremely risky for the foreseeable future.

So I'm thinking that there's going to be a reluctance by many to travel even once it's allowed and on this one I think government hasn't done it at all well. Every other cost has been socialised, so should it be for those caught out with the second lockdown otherwise it'll create a lingering reluctance to travel for quite some time.


----------



## over9k (11 July 2020)

I think I saw something on the news that returning travellers are going to have to pay for their own hotel quarantine too.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 July 2020)

over9k said:


> I think I saw something on the news that returning travellers are going to have to pay for their own hotel quarantine too



That's the issue yes.

They legitimately thought they were right to go, did so, and now find themselves faced with a bill which for some will be unaffordable.

It's a situation that's going to make at least some potential travelers very wary of heading interstate. I think government should have approached it differently in the interests of fairness - if the all clear was given to travel, then any reversal shouldn't be at the expense of individuals.


----------



## jbocker (11 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's the issue yes.
> 
> They legitimately thought they were right to go, did so, and now find themselves faced with a bill which for some will be unaffordable.
> 
> It's a situation that's going to make at least some potential travelers very wary of heading interstate. I think government should have approached it differently in the interests of fairness - if the all clear was given to travel, then any reversal shouldn't be at the expense of individuals.



Surely that rule was date stamped, like most others, or people can plead leniency in their case.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> Surely that rule was date stamped, like most others, or people can plead leniency in their case.




I don't know all the rules and details but there are definitely mainstream media reports about people having traveled and now that we're back into lockdowns again they're finding themselves not only being quarantined when they weren't expecting it but being charged for it too.

Never before has domestic travel carried a credible financial risk in the $ thousands for anyone who booked ahead and so on. I can see that discouraging many for quite some time. Not business travelers so much but I mean grey nomads with a caravan, families taking kids to the big cities or to the Gold Coast etc. Such people are going to be rather wary of potentially being up for $ thousands unexpectedly.

My thinking is an ongoing wariness of even domestic travel once restrictions are lifted. Not everyone of course, but enough to matter quite likely.


----------



## qldfrog (11 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't know all the rules and details but there are definitely mainstream media reports about people having traveled and now that we're back into lockdowns again they're finding themselves not only being quarantined when they weren't expecting it but being charged for it too.
> 
> Never before has domestic travel carried a credible financial risk in the $ thousands for anyone who booked ahead and so on. I can see that discouraging many for quite some time. Not business travelers so much but I mean grey nomads with a caravan, families taking kids to the big cities or to the Gold Coast etc. Such people are going to be rather wary of potentially being up for $ thousands unexpectedly.
> 
> My thinking is an ongoing wariness of even domestic travel once restrictions are lifted. Not everyone of course, but enough to matter quite likely.



Wait till they start localised lockdown aka cluster lockdowns, which means even intrastate travellers will get penalised..
Just continuation of self imposed hardships.


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## qldfrog (11 July 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/9ec5816d6adc24b08d7530ab24fad5ec
Will be very interesting to see June's figures
Higher retail figures from universal universal income.
I had a serious ethical reluctance in getting jobkeeper.
This is clearly diseapearing fast as it is now a given i am not going to be able to do business with China anymore.
Wonder how many are in my situation, probably not many as I was bringing Chinese money into Australia whereas the main flow was the other way, but still not a great prospect for the deficit or people still paying taxes


----------



## qldfrog (11 July 2020)

Lastly real stats with link to Nature pdf from article
e49013a9831e6383689c7f08d145ee67


----------



## qldfrog (11 July 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/sma...r/news-story/599bde19c8586d05ccb918a46670c8ca
Interesting facts about jobkeeper


----------



## ducati916 (11 July 2020)

In the news:

_The CEO of the German biotech BioNTech told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Friday morning that his company’s Covid-19 vaccine, which it is developing in collaboration with Pfizer, could be ready to submit for regulatory approval by the end of this year. That’s a less aggressive timeline than Pfizer has laid out in recent days.

Pfizer (ticker: PFE) executives have said they hope to submit the vaccine for Food and Drug Administration approval by the fall. In an interview with Time magazine published Thursday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the company should be able to submit the vaccine for FDA approval in September. And Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, said on an investor call on July 1 that the company planned to file for approval in Oct. 2020.

Neither Pfizer nor BioNTech (BNTX) immediately responded to a request for comment on the apparent discrepancy. But the more cautious remarks to the Journal from the BioNTech CEO, Ugur Sahin, reflect what appears to be the executive’s generally sober outlook on the Covid-19 pandemic. Sahin also told the paper that, despite progress from various vaccine programs, it could take a decade to beat Covid-19.

“I assume that we will only be done with this virus when more than 90% of the global population will get immunity, either through infection or through a vaccine,” Sahin told the Journal.

Shares of BioNTech were up 3.8% in premarket trading while S&P 500 future were flat. The stock has climbed 93.7% so far this year. Of the eight analysts tracked by FactSet who cover BioNTech, six rate it a Hold.

Pfizer shares, meanwhile, were up 0.8% in premarket trading. The stock is down 14.6% this year, and trades at 12.7 times earnings expected over the next 12 months, according to FactSet, below its five-year average of 13.4 times earnings. Of the 16 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Pfizer, half rate it a Buy, while half rate it a Hold.

Pfizer and BioNTech unveiled promising data on their Covid-19 vaccine on July 1, which showed that all 24 patients who received lower doses of the vaccine in a Phase 1 trial developed neutralizing antibodies at a level about two times higher than those found in patients who had recovered from Covid-19 infections. The companies are planning to begin a Phase 2b/3 efficacy study involving up to 30,000 patients as soon as this month.
_
jog on
duc


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## over9k (11 July 2020)

I posted this in the other thread but I figured it relevant here as it shows one of the "economic implications of a coronavirus outbreak" - some sectors having a complete & total reliance on the fed. 

The politicians are trying to get the next package out before the august recess just FYI for everyone


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## SirRumpole (11 July 2020)

I wonder how they are going to stop people crossing borders in light aircraft.


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## basilio (11 July 2020)

The banks are not benevolent societies.
When the repayment break finishes they will be sharpening their pencils and working out  "solutions" for clients who represent a risk to the banks bottom line. 

*ANZ boss Shayne Elliott warns bad loans will be a reality amid coronavirus fallout*

"If we believe that you really don't have a prospect of paying back your loan, we have an obligation to impair that loan and work with you on a solution."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...oronavirus-lifeline/12437782?section=business


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## over9k (11 July 2020)

They'll balance it out. The bank's far better off getting something out of you rather than nothing. They'll be left with thousands upon thousands of negative value loans/repo'd houses on their books like what happened to the american banks in the GFC if they're not careful. 

Better off taking a haircut on the loan than going scorched earth and being left holding a house that can't even be sold for enough to close out the outstanding principal.


----------



## Sdajii (11 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I wonder how they are going to stop people crossing borders in light aircraft.




I don't think an appreciable number of people are going to be crossing borders in light aircraft. I'm officially a resident of Melbourne. If I wanted to I could be anywhere in Australia within a few days, without needing to use an aircraft.

But yep, if people with light aircraft really want to they'll have no trouble transporting people who want to travel. A handful of people will probably do it. I'm sure more than a handful of Melbourne residents crossed the NSW border into QLD yesterday, hidden in vehicles or with fake ID.

The laws won't be 100% effective and aren't designed to be. They're designed to stop the bulk of the movement.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (11 July 2020)

Clusters emerging in NSW; we are on a trajectory of lockdown in NSW.

The rest of the nation will also probably go into lockdown again if they don't keep both their domestic and international borders closed. More economic pain to come because we weren't disciplined enough to keep the borders closed.


----------



## Sdajii (12 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think a key issue there is that there's a reluctance to accept that "the new normal" may in some aspects be extremely different to the recent pre-pandemic past.
> 
> Different to the point that some businesses and concepts are dead, kaput, simply unviable going forward.
> 
> Those on the losing side of that aren't going to be at all keen on accepting it and will fight all the way.




People in dictatorships like China will be forced to accept and convincingly act like they love whatever measures and reality are imposed on them. Absolutely, as you say, in countries with any human freedom, there will be people fighting all the way.

The majority of people in western countries seem to be thinking that if everyone does the right thing the virus will either somehow magically disappear or that we'll just sit around in lockdown until a vaccine comes along (which won't happen, though possibly a completely ineffective vaccine will be posed as an effective one as a way for governments to save face; give everyone an ineffective vaccine and let the virus go through, then use a mixture of playing down the illnesses which will be relatively mild anyway and pretend it would have been far worse without the fake vaccine, or blame whoever made the vaccine for promising it would be better than it was, or most likely, a mixture of both).

What is 'the new normal' going to be? It's obvious that there shouldn't be a new normal, we should just be carrying on as usual, but what will the long term/permanent changes be, if any, and what exactly are people expecting?

This whole situation is beyond ridiculous. If we'd never seen the flu before I suppose the governments would be carrying on like this. When old people die of the flu, no one says "Oh my god, the flu killed someone!" we just say 'yeah, grandpa was old, flu knocked him over'. It's inevitable that withing a few years the Wuhan virus will go through all populations in the world. We can either play this insane game and delay it for a few years while cause unnecessary auxiliary damage, or we can get it done sooner and skip the insanity.

If you have no understanding of immunology or economics and you think a vaccine is coming I can understand why you'd consider the situation to make sense, and I suppose most people just assume the government knows what it's doing and have no idea of immunology or economics, but what is anyone else's idea of where this is all going?

You personally say some businesses and concepts are dead. Which ones? Spectator crowds at sports games? Community festivals? Parties and hugs? I really can't see that happening long term unless a totalitarian regime takes control of the world.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You personally say some businesses and concepts are dead. Which ones? Spectator crowds at sports games? Community festivals? Parties and hugs?




I'm thinking that anything which had passed its' peak anyway, due to technology or simply being outdated / old, may well never resume whereas without the virus it would have declined far more gradually over however long.

Retail is an obvious area there. Now that even those who were previously reluctant, older people mostly, have given online ago it seems reasonable to expect that at least some will stick with it. Physical shop trading volumes won't go back to pre-pandemic levels.

The entertainment industry is another area where I think that may occur. For those bands and other performers who are passed their peak but were still touring, well I wonder how many will bother getting going again? And how many will decide that now that they've been forced to stop and have become accustomed to doing whatever they're doing instead, that's it they're done with standing on a stage, indeed they're done as such, and it's all over now?

There would likely be some in far more normal jobs who think similarly. They've been forced to stop doing whatever, they're near retirement anyway, so can they really be bothered getting going again? Or is that it, game over?

Cruising's another one where it's hard to see there not being at least some permanent damage. For those who just wanted a holiday and don't really care if it's a cruise or if it's some other sort of trip, well there's a lot of negative publicity for the entire concept out of all this.

The big one though, more significant than the rest, I wonder about is the concept of CBD head offices in big buildings? Historically that's been the goal of many, get promoted to head office, but I wonder if now the opposite is true? Will the best talent be seeking to avoid such places unless paid enough to persuade them? Is a CBD office now a liability rather than an asset?

As a case in point, well NAB have mothballed entire office towers and yet they're still functioning as a bank. That raises a lot of questions as to why, exactly, they'd go back to those buildings with all the costs involved and so on? Especially so if they find some other bank trying to poach their best staff with an offer of permanent work from home. Etc, same with any business. WFH is now more than proven for purely desk-based roles and any employee who wants to do it and is worth employing is going to be using it as a bargaining point.

Another one I wonder about is locations. Eg Melbourne and Sydney versus the smaller capitals or anywhere regional? The whole virus experience would seem to be a negative for the bigger cities especially and I'm thinking that at least some will want out. That then comes back to employers - if someone in Melbourne wants to keep their star employees then they might have to just accept that they now live in regional WA and will never be turning up to the office physically.

That then has implications for real estate and house prices if fewer people have an actual need to live anywhere specific and particularly in the big cities. No doubt there's quite a few Victorians who over the coming weeks will browse real estate websites looking at homes in regional areas or interstate.

And so on. I'm basically thinking that anything where there was an existing trend due to technology or age etc has just been given a huge push along.

I've no doubt that I'll be wrong to considerable extent, we're not going to abandon the entire CBD or anything like that and not every 50 year old singer is going to throw in the towel at this point, but I'm thinking that we'll see some changes with that sort of thing. If even 5% or 10% shift then that's a huge impact on things like office vacancies and so on.

In short, I'm thinking that some will adopt the forced changes permanently. They've been forced to see a different way, a way that doesn't involve them trawling through shops in search of something, working in a CBD office or standing on stage bashing out their hits from the 1980's or whatever and I'd be surprised if some don't stick with the change permanently.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> This is clearly diseapearing fast as it is now a given i am not going to be able to do business with China anymore.



Curious as to why that is?

Do you need to physically travel there or something like that?


----------



## over9k (12 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The big one though, more significant than the rest, I wonder about is the concept of CBD head offices in big buildings? Historically that's been the goal of many, get promoted to head office, but I wonder if now the opposite is true? Will the best talent be seeking to avoid such places unless paid enough to persuade them? Is a CBD office now a liability rather than an asset?
> 
> As a case in point, well NAB have mothballed entire office towers and yet they're still functioning as a bank. That raises a lot of questions as to why, exactly, they'd go back to those buildings with all the costs involved and so on? Especially so if they find some other bank trying to poach their best staff with an offer of permanent work from home. Etc, same with any business. WFH is now more than proven for purely desk-based roles and any employee who wants to do it and is worth employing is going to be using it as a bargaining point.
> 
> ...




The industry agrees with you - there's plenty on record saying they're never going to return to having so many people at the office. They've moved stacks of people to working from home and it's actually worked so well that they're going to keep them there as a cost cutting measure.

This whole thing has kind of been a mass work from home trial, and it appears that the results have been stellar.

This is actually going to free up a ton of real estate now as people no longer need one place to live and another to work. I just wonder how long it'll be before this permanent work from home reality goes mainstream and we see calls for mass rezoning etc.

My parents own a holiday home in an area that used to be almost exclusively holiday places and we've had/seen (and gone and talked to) quite a few people over the past few years that have built permanent homes in the area due to having wanted to leave the city for years and modern internet, technology, remote desktop etc etc meaning that they can now work from home almost permanently and just make the odd monthly trip somewhere when they HAVE to do something face to face. 

I would/will do the same once I'm in the position to do so. I think the cities have become absolute hell. 

The times are a-changing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 July 2020)

over9k said:


> I think the cities have become absolute hell.




I wonder what happens with the CBD's?

I could be biased, I was never a fan of the whole "gentrification" thing in cities, I'd much rather history, diversity and general grunginess over some sterile "quality global branded experiences" blah blah that's exactly the same everywhere, but still I wonder.

If offices decline then that's one thing. Logically residential use would decline in the CBD too since the whole "apartment tower" concept isn't exactly getting good publicity out of all this and, of course, a big part of the reason to do it was proximity to work. It's one thing to be locked down in a house in the suburbs with a backyard or in a small town somewhere but it's another thing to be literally locked in a building.

Perhaps a period of reinvention for the cities in the years ahead?


----------



## over9k (12 July 2020)

It seems almost a certainty by necessity at this point. As for what it looks like is another question.


----------



## qldfrog (12 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Curious as to why that is?
> 
> Do you need to physically travel there or something like that?



Yes, there is only so much you can do imagine being the tech lead od the team of o/s programmers with added cultural and language barrier.Hard and a week term .. initially with my monthly commute there, mission impossible now.
So fading away.looking now at reusing the skills etc in an oz /us more classic configuration,not for profit but give back,
in the meantime, jobkeeper keeps my company afloat.these projects take ages to come to fruition, and i am thankful for jobkeeper and cash boost as otherwise, i would have just pull the plug and close.
Probably the case for many affected people.at least i was lucky to qualify


----------



## over9k (12 July 2020)

Death rate in the U.S has doubled in its biggest states this weekend. U.S cases hit another all time high. Global cases hit another all time high.

It's going to get a lot worse yet.


----------



## Knobby22 (12 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Death rate in the U.S has doubled in its biggest states this weekend. U.S cases hit another all time high. Global cases hit another all time high.
> 
> It's going to get a lot worse yet.



It's a real time experiment. Will be useful in assessing how we should proceed. I just wish they did more testing so we could trust the data more.


----------



## basilio (12 July 2020)

One has to wonder about how the economic systems around the world will hold up as the COVID situation deteriorates.

Debt defaults, widespread unrest, collapse of financial institutions, potential breakdown of infrastructure.
South Africa is in deep trouble as is Brazil.
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business


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## SirRumpole (12 July 2020)

basilio said:


> One has to wonder about how the economic systems around the world will hold up as the COVID situation deteriorates.
> 
> Debt defaults, widespread unrest, collapse of financial institutions, potential breakdown of infrastructure.
> South Africa is in deep trouble as is Brazil.
> https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business




It  depends a lot on who wins the US election in my view.

If it's Trump then there will be a lot of chaos and disorder, if Biden, who knows but one hopes that he'll find a way to bring the Western world together more cooperatively and not just run a US first policy.


----------



## basilio (12 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It  depends a lot on who wins the US election in my view.
> 
> If it's Trump then there will be a lot of chaos and disorder, if Biden, who knows but one hopes that he'll find a way to bring the Western world together more cooperatively and not just run a US first policy.




Don't know if this egg can be unscrambled. I think the last 4 years have caused a major reset of world thinking around US reliability as a leader. I can't see them being trusted ever again. I suspect that the next 4 months will be diabolical in the US in terms of COVID 19 impact. It has just gotten completely out of hand and in the current situation it seems impossible to contain. So how the US can get on top of its own problems let alone leading teh world seems a huge ask.

And I don't even want to think what could happen if Trump loses the election and then decides to play hell with any handover.


----------



## rederob (12 July 2020)

basilio said:


> And I don't even want to think what could happen if Trump loses the election and then decides to play hell with any handover.


----------



## over9k (12 July 2020)

Ok my background is developmental economics/employment relations and geopolitics/governance:

This withdrawal from the global system was already underway pre-trump. He's just kicked it into overdrive.

If you have an afternoon or a few hours spare, any/all of these are worth a watch to understand what's going on:

Here's from way back in 2014:


A 2018 update:


And another update after that: 


If you're going to watch them, watch them in the order I've listed.

The long & the short of it is that shale oil (fracking) has severed the only thing that's actually been tying america to the global system for several decades. They were already in the process of retreating back into isolationism, trump's just accelerated the process.

Historically, we're retreating back into something far more normal where we all just worry about ourselves. What's happening is literally decades overdue.


----------



## qldfrog (12 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok my background is developmental economics/employment relations and geopolitics/governance:
> 
> This withdrawal from the global system was already underway pre-trump. He's just kicked it into overdrive.
> 
> ...




And may not always be that bad, having cheap junk to throw away and fill landfill in the West has limited advantage the inevitable day the Kmart buyer of junk becomes unemployed and his relative wealth  is redistributed in China or Bangladesh..


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## qldfrog (12 July 2020)

The notion of putting ones citizens first should be mandatory for elected leaders, anything else is treasonous..yet while we glorify anzac, we are selling ourselves to the lowest denominator and no one raises a voice, or is dismissed as racist...


----------



## qldfrog (12 July 2020)

The notion of putting ones citizens first should be mandatory for elected leaders, anything else is treasonous..yet while we glorify anzac, we are selling ourselves to the lowest denominator and no one raises a voice, or is dismissed as farcright...yet  with covid, suddenly it is ok to be even be intrastate racist and dob a victorian neighbour
 the irony..anyway have to live with this whether I like it or not


----------



## rederob (12 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Historically, we're retreating back into something far more normal where we all just worry about ourselves. What's happening is literally decades overdue.



Change is constant.
Zeihan has a Western-centric view of the world.
The shift to Asia has been historically rapid given neither China nor India have won any wars to exert regional strength.
US oil independence is a bit of a red herring here.  The world is awash with cheap energy.  Unfortunately LTO is not cheap.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (12 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok my background is developmental economics/employment relations and geopolitics/governance:
> 
> This withdrawal from the global system was already underway pre-trump. He's just kicked it into overdrive.
> 
> ...






I just watched parts of it. I suppose if the Americans are going to abandon us and we must fend for ourselves; then Australia should do a deal with the British ASAP, if it can be done. We can ensure food and energy security for Britain; if they can ensure military security for us. Otherwise we better start building up a significant military capacity, a capacity that considers nuclear weapons.

As it stands: Australia and the USA have the ANZUS treaty; and the USA is in NATO. So if Australia goes to war, the Americans back us, which will bring the Europeans in also.

Anyway; this is off topic and we shouldn't be discussing military defence strategies and alliances here. Back to business, I say


----------



## sptrawler (12 July 2020)

From a personal perspective, which is someone under pension age, but above employable age, who is self funded. 
This is certainly a period of eroded wealth, no welfare assistance, minimal dividends, minimal interest = minimal income, so it is a case of burning capital.
It isn't a problem because I have capital, but it should be food for thought for those who are looking at becoming self funded, it is a worst case scenario at the moment and probably a good base line for the amount of money required to be self funded.


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## Chronos-Plutus (12 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> From a personal perspective, which is someone under pension age, but above employable age, who is self funded.
> This is certainly a period of eroded wealth, no welfare assistance, minimal dividends, minimal interest = minimal income, so it is a case of burning capital.
> It isn't a problem because I have capital, but it should be food for thought for those who are looking at becoming self funded, it is a worst case scenario at the moment and probably a good base line for the amount of money required to be self funded.




I really feel sorry for self-funded retires in this crisis.

No real support from the government at all; particularly if you have a property or two that you rely on the rental income to survive, where the tenants can't pay the rent.


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## Sdajii (12 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm thinking that anything which had passed its' peak anyway, due to technology or simply being outdated / old, may well never resume whereas without the virus it would have declined far more gradually over however long.
> 
> Retail is an obvious area there. Now that even those who were previously reluctant, older people mostly, have given online ago it seems reasonable to expect that at least some will stick with it. Physical shop trading volumes won't go back to pre-pandemic levels.
> 
> ...




You raise some good points here. Physical store retail is an interesting one. I'm surprised at how well it has held up over the last 10-15 years. I was expecting it to shrink some time ago, but they keep building new shopping malls and even now they are continuing. The shopping mall industry is doubling down, taking this time of low occupancy to renovate and expand, which surprised me. We'll see if that gamble pays off. Obviously you don't think so, I'm really not sure, but I lean towards agreeing with you at least to some extent.

Working from home, for the most part, I don't see as a significant change unless you're in the office rental industry. The same work gets done, but people do it from home instead of in the office. I know people already doing it and as you'd expect there's a lot of 'hit the keyboard every 20 minutes so it looks like I'm doing something', which I was seeing until a couple of days again when they literally made socialising illegal again (insane!). The kinks will no doubt be ironed out, accountability measures will be brought in, and without commuting etc things will be more efficient, but I don't see that being a radical change; if you, say, work in a nursery growing plants, you still need to go to work. If you work in a factory or restaurant (actually, that industry may shrink) you can't work from home. If you can work from home because you work in an office/call centre/etc, you're still doing the same job and the business/industry essentially carries on as usual. It'll change the way many people live their lives but won't really change any industries, I don't expect.

At the upper level of the corporate world, the people I know are not scared of the virus, they are career-driven people who tend to be tunnel-visioned and somewhat ruthless. Nothing gets in their way, they will work wherever the money is. The office grunts may be working from home but they'll still want to be in the top floor office of the skyscraper. But you're right, there could be a 10+% reduction which would be significant in the short term for the office industry. I don't really see it as that big a deal though.

No doubt some people will go into retirement a few years earlier, I think that's a no brainer.

Singers... meh, I don't think it's that big a deal what any individual artist does, there's always literally a thousand people desperate to take their place. The interesting thing will be what the masses want. Will there be a reduced demand in the long term for being part of a crowd, whether it's a concert, sports game, etc, or a festival. I have no interest in spectator sports, but I understand the relevance to the economy. I think it's a shame that the most popular thing to watch is a mob of scandalous meat heads tossing a ball around, but whatever they're watching, I hope people aren't permanently too scared to do it. The local pub isn't what it once was, and hasn't really been worth going to for a long while, but it'll be interesting to see how that goes.

Something very relevant to me is travel. I've on average crossed an international border about once per month over the last six years, and on average I stay in a city/village/town for about a week (this lockdown is utter torture for me, I haven't been in one county for this long in over 6 years, let alone one state/province!). I think it will take a long time for international tourism to recover and if it does I'm sure it won't happen quickly. International travel had become absurdly cheap, I think I wasn't paying much more than $100 on average for my flights. What's possible in 6, 12, 24 and 48 months will be very interesting, as will what people want (I'd love to see it as possible as ever with a great reduction in demand, but I doubt the former).

Along with what people want to do and what we as a planet allowing, I think we will have the reality of economic devastation far beyond what most people expect.


----------



## sptrawler (12 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Along with what people want to do and what we as a planet allowing, I think we will have the reality of economic devastation far beyond what most people expect.




It certainly wont be a cruisey as it was, that is for sure, "normal" will be somewhat different IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Singers... meh, I don't think it's that big a deal what any individual artist does, there's always literally a thousand people desperate to take their place. The interesting thing will be what the masses want. Will there be a reduced demand in the long term for being part of a crowd, whether it's a concert, sports game, etc, or a festival.




The way I'm thinking of that one is that there's an assortment of artists who were at their peak in the 1990's, 80's or even 70's who still tour and who still attract a reasonable crowd.

To the extent that they say stuff it, I'm done, my thinking is that whilst there's a million or more aspiring musicians to take their place, those replacements won't be attracting the same individuals to their shows. Someone aged 50+ probably isn't going to turn up to see some pop singer who's younger than their own kids. etc. If that's the case then it narrows the market for the live music industry overall, it chops the oldies off basically.

Another way a similar effect would occur would be if many overseas based acts simply narrowed their future touring plans. Those from the US tour the US and Canada but that's it, they're not going further than that. Or those from the UK tour the UK and a few European countries but they'll give the idea of flying to the other side of the world a miss. etc. That's another way that the overall scale of the live music industry could be reduced for an extended period well after "normal" returns.

Reason I mention it is that live entertainment is one thing that's extremely hard hit, it's literally gone to zero so far as anything major is concerned, and all up it does employ quite a few people. It's not just those on stage but it's all the people behind the scenes and all up there's quite a lot of people employed.

It also has a significant cultural place in society and having 20,000 people in an indoor venue is one thing that would be symbolic of "we're back to normal".

It'll come back as such I don't doubt, I'm just seeing it as something which has the potential to come back in a diminished form and not return to what it otherwise would have been for a very long time.

It's a random thought - I could well be wrong. Time will tell and to the extent there's a moment of proof, it'll be when all those bands who tend to tour once every 3 - 4 years do in fact turn up in Australia. Until it happens though, well I have some doubts. 

As a declaration of bias - well I've seen an order of magnitude more live concerts than I've ever watched professional sports of any kind. Along with travel, it's really the only thing I can't do at present that I'd normally do. So I have some personal bias there in using it as a measure but I do see it as being of some relevance - it would be somewhat symbolic of "normal" to see Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne) with a capacity crowd and a major international act on stage.


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## Sdajii (12 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The way I'm thinking of that one is that there's an assortment of artists who were at their peak in the 1990's, 80's or even 70's who still tour and who still attract a reasonable crowd.
> 
> To the extent that they say stuff it, I'm done, my thinking is that whilst there's a million or more aspiring musicians to take their place, those replacements won't be attracting the same individuals to their shows. Someone aged 50+ probably isn't going to turn up to see some pop singer who's younger than their own kids. etc. If that's the case then it narrows the market for the live music industry overall, it chops the oldies off basically.




Ah, good point. I hadn't considered that. I'm not sure how big a deal it will be, my guess is that those 50+ year olds will find another form of entertainment, whatever that is. It may transfer some business from that industry to the opera or stage theatre or cinemas or something, or you may be right, combined with fear of crowds they may convert to home-based entertainment, spending less money.



> Another way a similar effect would occur would be if many overseas based acts simply narrowed their future touring plans. Those from the US tour the US and Canada but that's it, they're not going further than that. Or those from the UK tour the UK and a few European countries but they'll give the idea of flying to the other side of the world a miss. etc. That's another way that the overall scale of the live music industry could be reduced for an extended period well after "normal" returns.




Possibly, but for the most part I'd guess it would be similar to the above, those people will instead go to theatre, local performers, maybe even horse races, comedy shows, etc. You may be right though, it'll be interesting.



> Reason I mention it is that live entertainment is one thing that's extremely hard hit, it's literally gone to zero so far as anything major is concerned, and all up it does employ quite a few people. It's not just those on stage but it's all the people behind the scenes and all up there's quite a lot of people employed.




Yes, I totally understand it's not just the performer, which is why I shrugged it off saying there will be other performers, but I hadn't considered the oldies leaving the market earlier. I don't think it'll be a big deal, but we can only speculate at this point and you might be right.



> It also has a significant cultural place in society and having 20,000 people in an indoor venue is one thing that would be symbolic of "we're back to normal".




I want that! I'm concerned that it won't be happening again. If that's the new normal, the world has taken a very, very dark turn.



> As a declaration of bias - well I've seen an order of magnitude more live concerts than I've ever watched professional sports of any kind. Along with travel, it's really the only thing I can't do at present that I'd normally do. So I have some personal bias there in using it as a measure but I do see it as being of some relevance - it would be somewhat symbolic of "normal" to see Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne) with a capacity crowd and a major international act on stage.




I'm seeing most people using personal bias even more than usual this year. People who still have their jobs think nothing has changed other than petrol being cheap. People in Melbourne who have lost their jobs, will lose their homes and can't visit friends think the sky has fallen and we'll all be dead this year. If something is gone which they don't care about (like me with the AFL season if I had the normal level of personal bias) it's a good thing, good riddance to that annoying thing I don't like, but if it's something they love, losing it is a travesty for the whole world, and how dare anyone suggest it stop? 'Anyone who does anything I wouldn't do is a selfish bastard' but 'Anyone who tells me I shouldn't do something I like to do is a fanatical, paranoid, totalitarian'.

There's also a big case of 'Anyone else who did something wrong is bad, and I'm good! Those terrible Melbourne troglodytes are appalling, they deserve their lockdown, every one of them! They're not as good as us Location X folks!' when of course the majority of people in the majority places are much the same as each other. This isn't just an Australia thing, the same concept exists within and between countries all over the world.

I'm aware of my own position of probably bias, in that I've lost virtually everything I had, literally right down to the shirts which used to be on my back, my entire way of life, my ability to be on the same continent as the people I've spent the last few years with and had no intention of being away from (etc etc etc), but I do keep my own situation out of any analysis and I really see the economic and social problems causing so much more death and misery to the world than the virus itself ever would have (and we'll still get a huge chunk of the virus issue, mild as it is, anyway).


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## Chronos-Plutus (12 July 2020)

Sdajii and Smurf are both emotionally compromised on these sort of themes/topics .


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## Sdajii (12 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Sdajii and Smurf are both emotionally compromised on these sort of themes/topics .




Play the ball, not the player.


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## Chronos-Plutus (12 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Play the ball, not the player.




I think we follow through with our national strategy; if it is my call.

Australian citizens have been warned for months to come home. They stay abroad now, or they pay for a complete lockdown quarantine on return. Our domestic borders remain welded closed until we have the virus under control in all states and territories; there is no international travel for the foreseeable future.

We either stay the course and protect our domestic economies, within the national economic interest, to open up without taking steps back, or we don't do it at all.


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## Smurf1976 (13 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Sdajii and Smurf are both emotionally compromised on these sort of themes/topics .




In what way?

I have noted bias in that I'd like to see a return of live music and have stated that the lack of that, and the inability to travel, are the main impacts of the current situation on me personally.

I have not suggested that anyone ought be put in danger via COVID-19 in order to facilitate my hope that live entertainment returns.

Nor have I suggested that $ billions of taxpayer funds should be used to facilitate it happening.

What I am doing is simply raising it as an industry of significance, primarily culturally but to some extent also economically, which could plausibly suffer long term impacts and fail to return to "normal" anytime soon.

I could be wrong and have acknowledged that. So could anyone else on this subject given that it's a subjective assessment of what's going to happen, it's not something which can be calculated with precision or even based on past precedent since there isn't one recent enough to be of relevance in the world in which we live today.

It's not like a market crash where it can be compared to all previous crashes on fundamentals and technicals. There are numerous past precedents to compare with.

Nor is it like an infrastructure project where the costs of various options can be calculated with reasonable certainty and the cheapest options identified. Unless someone's proposing to build a world first then for most things there are plenty of past projects which give a range of likely costs and that's enough to determine that it is or isn't worth proceeding to a more detailed assessment of a specific proposal. Nobody needs a detailed design to conclude that a bridge across Bass Strait is an economic dud idea for example, there's been more than enough bridges built around the world with their costs known for that to be immediately apparent.

The subject by its very nature is a speculative one and to the extent anyone here is compromised, it would be if they argued that anything was certain in an environment where very clearly it isn't. I don't see that being the case.

All that can really be said at present is that we've got Australia's borders shut, we've got some state borders shut, a lockdown in Melbourne and that overseas the US has seen a breakout in the infection rate with the death rate now also turning up. For other countries it's mixed - I'm focusing on the US simply due to its degree of influence. Where that all ends economically though, well that's anyone's guess since there's a lot of things in the mix beyond pure economics.

What happens next is speculative at best even for seemingly trivial matters. As just one example - would anyone like to predict whether normal New Year's Eve celebrations will go ahead this year or not? For that matter, will we even see someone dressed as Santa in shopping centres and so on for Christmas? Anyone's guess at this stage.......


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## Chronos-Plutus (13 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In what way?
> 
> I have noted bias in that I'd like to see a return of live music and have stated that the lack of that, and the inability to travel, are the main impacts of the current situation on me personally.
> 
> ...




I just read your entire post.

1. I don't think there will be live festivals and concerts this year.

2. I don't think building a bridge across the Bass Strait is a good idea: I was actually watching this tonight for a few minutes.



Not saying that it should be the same design of course  There isn't enough economic activity between the states to justify the expenditure, in my opinion. Could be wrong though.

3.  Are we calling off Christmas?

I will let you have the last post for this posting session because I am a gentleman. Past my bedtime now.


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## over9k (13 July 2020)

You guys are putting the cart before the horse here:

If the lockdowns work and the virus is re-controlled, things will actually return to a (relative) normal. If not, aus goes the way of the USA where people will only do anything (work, order food, buy stuff) face-to-face when they have no other choice.

We've got another week or two of watching the news like a hawk before we'll know whether the genie was irretrievably let out of this proverbial bottle. In the meantime, we get to see if the whack-a-mole approach works.


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## qldfrog (13 July 2020)

Anyone knows the reasoning preventing Australian to get OUT?
Multiple examples in the news of binational having to request exemption from gov to be able to leave?
I just realised if i have any death/illness in my family in Europe, i probably can not leave here in time.
And i can land in France or most of Europe wo issue.
Coming back is another matter but my problem is the de facto house arrest of Australia
Maybe that's the way for Australia to solve the coming brain drain?


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I think we follow through with our national strategy; if it is my call.
> 
> Australian citizens have been warned for months to come home. They stay abroad now, or they pay for a complete lockdown quarantine on return. Our domestic borders remain welded closed until we have the virus under control in all states and territories; there is no international travel for the foreseeable future.
> 
> We either stay the course and protect our domestic economies, within the national economic interest, to open up without taking steps back, or we don't do it at all.




It's not your call, this doesn't at all make sense as a response to what you were responding to, your comment about foreigners currently outside Australia is strange in its irrelevance (with very few exceptions those outside Australia have made the choice to remain outside Australia because they are expats with businesses, family, etc outside Australia with no desire to come back any time soon anyway. As an Australian who has spent almost all of the last 6 years outside Australia other than since the end of February this year, I know many such people).

We are not protecting our domestic economies by shutting them down! The economy is literally what we have decided to sacrifice! If we did nothing at all to mitigate the virus we would obviously have an economy in far better shape!

In a totalitarian regime you can have people do whatever the government tells them to do. In a democracy this is impossible. The recent mass protests on tens of thousands of people *given the go ahead by the government!* is a clear demonstration that the government in a democracy like Australia has so little power that in many cases it will not even attempt to stop people doing the most extreme things possible to take backwards steps, highlighting the fact that erradicating the diseases is impossible (it was never even the goal, it was flatten the curve, not eradicate the virus). Back in March when the lockdowns started it was obvious that governments were preparing for worst case scenario. Now in Q3 we have ample evidence to show that the virus is far, far more mild than they expected; most people literally get no symptoms at all. The curve was flattened to the point of it literally never having an end point, meaning the economy will be retarded indefinitely (until we wake up and change tack).

This thread is about what will happen to the economy due to the virus, and to the human response. We now know the answer to the former is almost zero. The answer to the latter depends on how quickly the governments want to deal with their U-turn and how they will try to save face, given that an effective vaccine almost certainly will never come and at some stage we need to let the virus run its course, which won't really be a big deal anyway to many people who weren't already terminally ill.


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> which won't really be a big deal anyway to many people who weren't already terminally ill.




Are your parents and grandparents still alive ?

Do you have a good relationship with them ?


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Anyone knows the reasoning preventing Australian to get OUT?
> Multiple examples in the news of binational having to request exemption from gov to be able to leave?
> I just realised if i have any death/illness in my family in Europe, i probably can not leave here in time.
> And i can land in France or most of Europe wo issue.
> ...




My guess is that the more Australians allowed to leave, the more who will want to come back, and while it's one thing to deny our human right of freedom of movement in terms of leaving and that's ethically and legally wrong but practically fine, it's legally, ethically and most relevantly to them practically impossible to prevent people coming home. The obvious solution is just to allow people their human right of freedom of movement. I personally know several people separated from their spouses and second hand know many people separated from their families and many (including myself) who have lost their businesses due to the travel ban alone.

There are plenty of smaller reasons (countries not wanting to look responsible for exporting the virus, for example) but primarily, it's a case of not wanting people to leave and come back, and if they make exceptions for some there will be many more demanding exceptions for themselves. I'd be wanting to do the same if not for the fact that the places I want to go to won't allow anyone in anyway.


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Are your parents and grandparents still alive ?
> 
> Do you have a good relationship with them ?




My own personal situation is irrelevant to the big picture. You are trying to point out my oldest relatives in order to illicit an emotional response. If emotion was making me irrational it would be because I had elderly relatives so old that they were likely to die if they caught the virus, which would mean they were near the end of their lives anyway.

As it is, both my parents are within a few years of the average life expectancy of Australia. They'll probably both get exposed to the virus before they hit the average life expectancy of Australia (which is about 82.3 years). Given what we now know about the virus, they'll probably not get sick and if they do they'll probably live through it. My own personal situation is irrelevant, but since you ask, my parents are both in good health for their age meaning they'll probably survive, but given their age, if they are unfortunate ones who become symptomatic, they'll likely need hospital treatment. Keep in mind they are elderly and elderly people have a guarantee of not having a long life ahead of them in any circumstances. Given what we knew in March I'd have said there was about a 20% chance of my mother dying this year. Given what we know now, I'd say the chance of her dying of the virus is negligible and the chance of her dying of something completely unrelated to the virus (stroke, heart attack, any of the other things old people are prone to dying of) is much higher.

The fact that your attempt to make an argument is based on an attempt at illiciting an emotional response rather than rational argument demonstrates things well.


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> My own personal situation is irrelevant to the big picture.




But it's relevant to your assessment of the situation.

If the hospitals are full of covid patients then your mother may not the get treatment she needs after a heart attack/stroke cancer diagnosis , nor may you if you have a road accident or are assaulted in the street.


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You guys are putting the cart before the horse here:
> 
> If the lockdowns work and the virus is re-controlled, things will actually return to a (relative) normal. If not, aus goes the way of the USA where people will only do anything (work, order food, buy stuff) face-to-face when they have no other choice.
> 
> We've got another week or two of watching the news like a hawk before we'll know whether the genie was irretrievably let out of this proverbial bottle. In the meantime, we get to see if the whack-a-mole approach works.




How can the lockdowns possibly work? They only work if they happen forever. Read this post of yours and think about it carefully. You are saying you want a situation where people are too scared to do anything face to face to avoid a situation where people are too scared to do anything face to face. Look at America, people aren't too scared to do things face to face other than those in fear due to the propaganda.

Your argument, of course, is that if we are forced into lockdown, the virus won't spread and... well, then what? We remain to scared to do anything face to face forever? Do you ever want people to do things face to face again? Because as soon as lockdown ends and life goes back to normal, the virus spreads anyway.

The alarmists seem to not realise the simple fact that unless you completely erradicate this virus from the whole planet (impossible, surely everyone realises that by now), lockdown is only a temporary strategy. We know it is economically impossible to maintain, eventually the financial system will collapse, the government relies on that financial system to exist, the government is the thing imposing the lockdowns, so eventually you're going to have a weakened government/economy with the virus spreading anyway, and then we will see that it's really not that bad anyway and we caused all this trouble without justification.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Are your parents and grandparents still alive ?
> 
> Do you have a good relationship with them ?



Yes (2 of 4 grandparents, both 85+). 
Yes .

I still think lockdowns are ridiculous. I don't expect the majority of the population to stop living, in order to protect my parents and/or grandparents.


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> Yes (2 of 4 grandparents, both 85+).
> Yes .
> 
> I still think lockdowns are ridiculous. I don't expect the majority of the population to stop living, in order to protect my parents and/or grandparents.




People are still living. If this includes going to the pub and getting smashed, I'm sure they can live without that for a while.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> People are still living. If this includes going to the pub and getting smashed, I'm sure they can live without that for a while.




It includes travelling, working (many are now unemployed as a result of lockdwons), leisure, family and social gatherings. You know, the things that make life worthwhile and enjoyable.

Sure, they're physically alive. That's not the same as living.


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## qldfrog (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> unless you completely eradicate this virus from the whole planet (impossible, surely everyone realises that by now), lockdown is only a temporary strategy



That is the key, you need an actual strategy and waiting for a working vaccine is not one LOL.
A serious issue we have here is the fact most Australians live in their bubble and their only outside view of theworld will be News or ABC news...both alarmist for different but convergent reasons

I highly recommend fellow asf readers watch the European news on SBS Italian, Spanish, French, German to get back in the idea that the world is actually restarting, @over9k I would recommend this to you as well so that you do not waste the gains you got, or at least preserve some before the pending reverse.


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> But it's relevant to your assessment of the situation.




No, it is not. Only an emotionally feeble person would see it that way.



> If the hospitals are full of covid patients then your mother may not the get treatment she needs after a heart attack/stroke cancer diagnosis , nor may you if you have a road accident or are assaulted in the street.




At my mother's age, a stroke or heart attack would probably be fatal anyway, as would be cancer. If you want to talk about my mother specifically (which is a stupid thing to do but you persist in doing so) she is extremely mistrustful of conventional medicine, an extreme anti vaccer, she said many years ago that she will never have a breast scan and will never get checked or treated for breast cancer (probably the only type of cancer she'd be likely to get which could be cured without coming back and killing her not much later anyway).

The chances of me hanging in the balance of life and death after such an incident and dying for lack of treatment due to the virus are so incredibly remote. Sure, it's possible, but so is the possibility that due to lack of healthcare funding due to economic collapse the system doesn't function properly and I die in such a situation.

You are using a very emotional way of thinking, just cherry picking extreme hypotheticals without weighing up their likelihood and comparing them to other hypotheticals and their likelihoods. If you use that way of thinking you will easily justify almost literally any position you can think of, regardless of how incorrect it is. You should wear chain mail trousers and socks every day, because you might be bitten by a snake. I've had two friends killed by snakes (yes, really) and another friend who almost died and has permanent injury after being bitten by a cobra in an Asian market when reaching for some vegetables in the pile the snake was hiding in (yes, really). So I suppose you should wear chain mail gloves too if you go shopping in Asia, and the government should enforce this rule. What if you or someone you loved were to die from snake bite? It's literally something which could happen and you're currently not taking any precautions for. Even if you don't die, you could have permanent loss of taste and/or smell, or permanent kidney damage, or any of a large number of other permanent issues. We need chain mail trousers for everyone and chain mail gloves while shopping for fresh produce, right?


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> No, it is not. Only an emotionally feeble person would see it that way.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well that's a pretty emotive response in itself.

People take precautions in dangerous situations, like we now find ourselves in.

Social isolation is a precaution in an infectious disease situations, but your solution is to do nothing, I don't think that is credible.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Well that's a pretty emotive response in itself.
> 
> People take precautions in dangerous situations, like we now find ourselves in.
> 
> Social isolation is a precaution in an infectious disease situations, but your solution is to do nothing, I don't think that is credible.




That's just it. I should be able to take the precaution I see fit.

If you want to lock yourself in a room for 3 months (social isolation), go for it. I'm not interested.
I'll take the risk, and will even foot the medical bill if that were an option, should I get severely ill.


----------



## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> That's just it. I should be able to take the precaution I see fit.
> 
> If you want to lock yourself in a room for 3 months (social isolation), go for it. I'm not interested.
> I'll take the risk, and will even foot the medical bill if that were an option, should I get severely ill.




And how many people are you going to infect in the meantime ?

If your friends got it and ended up in hospital I doubt if they would be too happy with you.


----------



## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> People are still living. If this includes going to the pub and getting smashed, I'm sure they can live without that for a while.




This is not the only thing which has been banned. I'm literally not legally allowed to visit a friend or have a friend visit me. I am not legally allowed to go to my favourite local places to go for a walk. I can not in any way legally share a meal with a friend for the next six weeks. I have lost my business and almost everything I owned at the start of this year. I could go on and on. There are many things I miss, there are many things I should be allowed to do but am not. Getting smashed at the pub is not among those things. I have committed no crime and I am in perfect health.

Flawed as it is, you love to use personal examples or specific anecdotes and seem to understand things through them. My life has been ruined (I'm working my way back up, but many in my shoes have already killed themselves). I have multiple friends who have lost their relationships. One of my friends was unable to be present for the birth of his own first child last month. I have friends who have been separated from their wives and children for months. I have suicidal friends, at least one of whom will probably kill himself this year (he's separated from his wife). I personally know some people and second hand know of many, who have become unable to care for their young children properly, or in some cases almost at all (especially the ones with wives and children outside Australia - I've spent the last 6 years outside Australia so I know more people in this situation than most Australians would). I have been dealing with plenty of people who have sold their financial futures; ridiculous as it is, I've been working in a sales role, it has been remarkably easy, the easiest I've seen it in over a decade. The last sale I made, two days ago, was to a woman who like many of those I've dealt with over the last couple of months is paying using her superannuation! For completely and utterly non essential purchases she wouldn't have made at all if not for the ridiculous lockdowns and the ability of the super sale at deflated price to fund it. When she retires she's going to be in a difficult financial position, and as members of this forum know better than the average member of the community, poverty is a literal killer.

Does any of the above bother you at all?


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> And how many people are you going to infect in the meantime ?
> 
> If your friends got it and ended up in hospital I doubt if they would be too happy with you.




1) Your choice to be near me. You don't need to go out in public
2) My friends dont have to visit me

People have choices. Or they SHOULD have them - but governments the world over think they're doing everyone a favour.


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> And how many people are you going to infect in the meantime ?




None of them will be people who chose to lock themselves up, isolated in a room!



> If your friends got it and ended up in hospital I doubt if they would be too happy with you.




How would he give it to his friends if they had chosen to lock themselves up in a room? He'd only be able to give it to people who chose to interact with him and take that risk.

I would love to have that choice! I would take it! If I ended up in hospital I would say okay, I took that risk. What is the point of living if you spend your life locked up and paranoid?


----------



## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Does any of the above bother you at all?




Well, let's look at an alternative, the US.

Unemployment is at record levels also, and the virus is running wild.

They have achieved a double disaster at least we seem to have minimised one of those disasters, for now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/us-records-historic-job-losses-due-to-coronavirus/12230602


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> 1) Your choice to be near me. You don't need to go out in public
> 2) My friends dont have to visit me
> 
> People have choices. Or they SHOULD have them - but governments the world over think they're doing everyone a favour.




So you expect others to be responsible while you are not ?!


----------



## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Well that's a pretty emotive response in itself.




I literally pointed out that the only reason I was posing it in that way was because you repeatedly post like it and I was putting it that way for you!



> People take precautions in dangerous situations, like we now find ourselves in.




Sometimes we go too far, sometimes we don't go far enough, sometimes we get it about right. This is an obvious case of taking it waaaay too far. The fact that we have terms like 'a cure worse than the disease' shows that we do sometimes get it wrong.



> Social isolation is a precaution in an infectious disease situations, but your solution is to do nothing, I don't think that is credible.




My solution is not to do nothing and I've never said that. Look at Sweden for one of the few examples of countries doing something in line with what I think is best. The only economic trouble Sweden will have will be caused by the rest of the world doing absurd things. If all countries acted like Sweden, there wouldn't be a problem. In terms of the virus itself, Sweden will do well.

Your solution is worse than a cure worse than the disease scenario. Yours is a delay strategy worse than the disease, before the disease then hits us anyway.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So you expect others to be responsible while you are not ?!




No. I expect others to make their own choices

I also don't accept your definition of responsible. So long as I'm not breaking the law (outside this 'state of emergency'), I'm being responsible. If you have a different standard, you can live by that.

Like I said, don't force me to live the way you want to.


----------



## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> No. I expect others to make their own choices
> 
> I also don't accept your definition of responsible. So long as I'm not breaking the law (outside this 'state of emergency'), I'm being responsible. If you have a different standard, you can live by that.
> 
> Like I said, don't force me to live the way you want to.




You have just stated the obvious, the law is the law restricting rights due to a State of Emergency. So if you have a party exceeding the law for the number of people then you have broken the law, like it or not.


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## basilio (13 July 2020)

The use of quarantine to prevent the spread of disease is the oldest most effective method of prevention.
Self sacrifice to save other communities has also happened.
*Coronavirus: What can the 'plague village' of Eyam teach us?*
With coronavirus putting households around the world in lockdown, can the English "plague village" of Eyam, which quarantined itself for more than a year, offer us lessons on how to fight back?
As a nightmare tale from history, Eyam's ordeal takes some surpassing.
When plague arrived in September 1665, rather than flee this wild corner of Derbyshire - and risk spreading the infection - villagers locked themselves away to suffer in isolation. And suffer they did.

www.bbc.com › uk-england-derbyshire-51904810
Apr 22, 2020 - And perhaps most importantly, did the quarantine _save others_? ... in Eyam, the former '_plague village_' in Derbyshire, dealing with coronavirus.

www.bbc.com › news › uk-england-35064071
Nov 5, 2016 - The _village_ of Eyam lost 260 people to _plague_ in the 1660s - but thousands more in neighbouring settlements were _saved_ by the _villagers_' remarkable ... to so many of the dying, contracting the _plague_ while helping _others_.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You have just stated the obvious, the law is the law restricting rights due to a State of Emergency. So if you have a party exceeding the law for the number of people then you have broken the law, like it or not.




My point is the current over-reach for control is not acceptable. It doesn't justify the 'emergency' label.

The damage caused out of unjustified fear is not acceptable. We're not at war. 
At the end of this, even the state of Florida will be in a better position that we will.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

basilio said:


> The use of quarantine to prevent the spread of disease is the oldest most effective method of prevention.
> Self sacrifice to save other communities has also happened.
> *Coronavirus: What can the 'plague village' of Eyam teach us?*
> With coronavirus putting households around the world in lockdown, can the English "plague village" of Eyam, which quarantined itself for more than a year, offer us lessons on how to fight back?
> ...




You're comparing COVID-19 to the plague... wow.

The plague had a death rate of 50% (if untreated). You can't possibly think this is the same.


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## basilio (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> You're comparing COVID-19 to the plague... wow.
> 
> The plague had a death rate of 50% (if untreated). You can't possibly think this is the same.




Not in severity of course. The reference is to the use of quarantine to stop the spread of the disease. It was also a very noble act for the village lead by its hitherto unpopular minister to voluntarily quarantine itself to save the surrounding countryside.


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## wayneL (13 July 2020)

Should we take the same actions for influenza? 650,000 deaths in a typical year, even with a vaccine available.

If not, why not?


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> At the end of this, even the state of Florida will be in a better position that we will.




How so ?

I refer to a previous post on the USA which seems to have been ignored.

They have record unemployment, plus a runaway virus, a double disaster. 

Why are they better off than us ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/us-records-historic-job-losses-due-to-coronavirus/12230602


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## qldfrog (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How so ?
> 
> I refer to a previous post on the USA which seems to have been ignored.
> 
> ...



they will because the worst is over for them ...no one gives a damn about being tested positive numbers, what is important is extra death aka people who would have been alive in 2 years but will die earlier , we are delaying and make no mistakes we will have thousands of deaths by the virus here..
mostly if nearly only in the above 70 range :
maybe in the next months, next year  or if we turn North Korea even more, in a couple of years but it will happen let's just do not blame it on Victorians please. we will be in enough drama once people realise  how duped they have been, even you @SirRumpole, will be interesting to have your view in 3y
In the meantime our economy will go down the drain week by week paltry lockdown attempt after attempt


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## qldfrog (13 July 2020)

One thing we can all agree it is VERY VERY contagious..that happens.and this is the underlying issue as well of the futility of our approach once covid is worldwire and established.


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## Klogg (13 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How so ?
> 
> I refer to a previous post on the USA which seems to have been ignored.
> 
> ...




I said 'they will be' better off.

More people will have died. But they will on average be deaths brought forward by a few years.
Meanwhile, their economy will not have been destroyed as badly by rolling lockdowns.



In other news, dictator dan is now threatening stage 4 lockdowns. In other words, he wants to kill any form of economic activity to save a few 85 year olds.
What a joke.


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

basilio said:


> Not in severity of course. The reference is to the use of quarantine to stop the spread of the disease. It was also a very noble act for the village lead by its hitherto unpopular minister to voluntarily quarantine itself to save the surrounding countryside.




Where do we draw the line? If this was a disease with a 50% fatality rate (or even 2% if you got that figure while ignoring people who were on or near their death beds anyway - excluding those already near death, this virus has an extremely low fatality rate) I'd say fair enough, call it an emergency, lock people down, etc. But this is literally comparable to the flu, and if you want to scoff at that, consider the fact that you literally just compared it to the plague! It is far, far, far closer in severity to the common cold than plague.

Most people don't even show symptoms/are immune, and for the majority of other people it is a mild, temporary respiratory bug.

While it's noble for a *small number of people* to endure some suffering for the *good of many others*, it makes no sense to *force* *most people* to suffer for the good of a *few*, especially when most of that few will end up catching it anyway!

This isn't a lockdown of a small community to protect many others, it is the destruction of the global system!


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## moXJO (13 July 2020)

basilio said:


> www.bbc.com › uk-england-derbyshire-51904810
> Apr 22, 2020 - And perhaps most importantly, did the quarantine _save others_? ... in Eyam, the former '_plague village_' in Derbyshire, dealing with coronavirus.
> 
> www.bbc.com › news › uk-england-35064071
> Nov 5, 2016 - The _village_ of Eyam lost 260 people to _plague_ in the 1660s - but thousands more in neighbouring settlements were _saved_ by the _villagers_' remarkable ... to so many of the dying, contracting the _plague_ while helping _others_.



Love historical stories like this.


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## basilio (13 July 2020)

moXJO said:


> Love historical stories like this.



Glad you appreciated  it.


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## basilio (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Where do we draw the line? If this was a disease with a 50% fatality rate (or even 2% if you got that figure while ignoring people who were on or near their death beds anyway - excluding those already near death, this virus has an extremely low fatality rate) I'd say fair enough, call it an emergency, lock people down, etc. But this is literally comparable to the flu, and if you want to scoff at that, consider the fact that you literally just compared it to the plague! It is far, far, far closer in severity to the common cold than plague.
> 
> Most people don't even show symptoms/are immune, and for the majority of other people it is a mild, temporary respiratory bug.
> 
> ...




There is a human consequence that is rapidly happening in Florida and Texas (as well as many other places) .

Imagine you go to a big wedding,  family funeral, slam party , football match or disco. In the group there are a few infected people. By the end of the evening there is every chance another 80-100 people will have picked up the disease.

*On current figures one of these people will die.* A few others will be hospitalised and seriously affected. A few more will be sick as dogs for potentially weeks on end. The others who are infected will just go to the next party/funeral/football match and spread the infection further.

Would anyone go to such an event when there is a high probability at least one person will sicken and die and the second and third prizes are an extended stay in ICU?

And what effect will this sort of consequence have for big public events where people mingle closely ?
Check out the COVID party story..
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/30-year-old-dies-covid-party-texas


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## SirRumpole (13 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> In other news, dictator dan is now threatening stage 4 lockdowns. In other words, he wants to kill any form of economic activity to save a few 85 year olds.
> What a joke.




Not necessarily. The risk factors seem to be anyone over 50 with "co-morbidity" which could include treatable conditions like asthma.

Plenty of life left in those folks if they don't get covid.


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## Sdajii (13 July 2020)

basilio said:


> There is a human consequence that is rapidly happening in Florida and Texas (as well as many other places) .
> 
> Imagine you go to a big wedding,  family funeral, slam party , football match or disco. In the group there are a few infected people. By the end of the evening there is every chance another 80-100 people will have picked up the disease.
> 
> ...




Yes. Want evidence? There's literally a real world where people are literally doing it. You're ignoring the fact that your statistic is based on that one person being towards the end of their life anyway. Not everyone is irrationally paranoid. If this virus was going to magically disappear on the 17th of November this year, sure, it would make sense for people, especially the vulnerable, to lock themselves away and for everyone to be far more cautious. Here in reality land, that's not happening.

Again... again... again... if you're going to inevitably get exposed to it, why live in fear until you do? I would love to be given a dose today and be done with it. I'm already in lockdown for 6 weeks in perfect health, I'd happily use this time to either have the disease and be done with it or demonstrate clearly that I'm immune and thus be allowed to freely travel.  Actually, given that I had multiple flights into, out of and within Asia early this year and late last year, often in international crowds before anyone was familiar with 'social distancing', I likely already have been exposed and was either innately immune or I'm in the majority of cases which are asymptomatic.



> And what effect will this sort of consequence have for big public events where people mingle closely ?
> Check out the COVID party story..
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/30-year-old-dies-covid-party-texas




Ah, yes, the old 'the exception to ignore the rule' or 'cherry-picked outlier' method of false argument. It's a big world, you had to go to Texas to get the cherry you wanted!

If you want to cherry pick like that, it's equally valid to say we should ban cars because of car accidents, showers because people fall over and break their necks, pets because dogs and even cats kill people, swimming, gardening (a surprising number of people die from gardening, it's actually quite interesting), etc etc.

We shouldn't be allowed to own knives. All food should be chopped up before the general public can purchase it.

Where do you draw the line? We are not avoiding the risk, we are merely delaying it slightly, and it is not simply a choice of delay it or not delay it, the delay comes at a greater cost than the disease itself (which we are not avoiding anyway, merely delaying!).


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## Spaniel14 (13 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Again... again... again... if you're going to inevitably get exposed to it, why live in fear until you do? I would love to be given a dose today and be done with it. I'm already in lockdown for 6 weeks in perfect health, I'd happily use this time to either have the disease and be done with it or demonstrate clearly that I'm immune and thus be allowed to freely travel. Actually, given that I had multiple flights into, out of and within Asia early this year and late last year, often in international crowds before anyone was familiar with 'social distancing', I likely already have been exposed and was either innately immune or I'm in the majority of cases which are asymptomatic.




The latest medical evidence is pointing towards showing that antibodies developed in the body to fight COVID, only remain for around 3 weeks. Meaning after 3 weeks of having it, you can get it again (and there is no guarantee it will hit you easier/harder than before), you’re not “immune” to it. Early days and not enough data to categorically prove it, but evidence is suggesting so. It’s not like the flu where once you’ve been exposed to a specific strain (which they vaccinate against the most common strain every year) the pathogens hang around for months, by which point we’re into summer and cases have dropped significantly. This is one of the primary reasons why doctors are so concerned about COVID versus the flu, and why they are urging governments to contain the spread, because COVID now is a strain on our medical system, but the long-term strain could be worse.

There’s also possible evidence towards longer term neurological and respiratory effects, which given the virus has only been widespread for a few months, we may not see the actual effects for a long time yet. Potential for chronic lung disease, cognitive and psychological impairments. And these affect you, whether you were asymptomatic or in ICU (obviously the degree to which you are affected changes, but affected nonetheless).

I understand your points about how difficult lockdowns are, and that governments need to think more about who should be locked down - but keep in mind governments work to give a solution that works for the entire country. It’s not perfect, and it will undoubtedly be hard on some people; but it is better than the alternative which is great for some people, and literally kills others. They have a duty to keep all of their citizens safe, not just some of them. If you do have friends who are having mental health issues, and you are concerned about suicidal tendencies, you should be urging them to seek professional help, and if they refuse to do so because they are “fine”, you should be highlighting them to the appropriate people so that they can act before it is too late. People think psychiatry isn’t for them and that it doesn’t work, but it can absolutely change somebody’s life and their perspective of it.


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## wayneL (13 July 2020)

Spaniel14 said:


> The latest medical evidence is pointing towards showing that pathogens developed in the body to fight COVID, only remain for around 3 weeks. Meaning after 3 weeks of having it, you can get it again (and there is no guarantee it will hit you easier/harder than before), you’re not “immune” to it. .



I'm no immunologist, (and I'm guessing you mean antibodies?) but wouldn't that mean a vaccine is an exercise in futility? Doesn't that mean any antibodies created by the vaccine would also only last 3 weeks?


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## Spaniel14 (13 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> I'm no immunologist, (and I'm guessing you mean antibodies?) but wouldn't that mean a vaccine is an exercise in futility? Doesn't that mean any antibodies created by the vaccine would also only last 3 weeks?




You’re correct, I was thinking of writing something different than I did. I have corrected my original comment.

Not necessarily, we may end up with a vaccine like the flu vaccines, which would be made available annually. Vaccines can be manufactured to boost the antibody response above levels that being exposed to the virus/bacteria would through transmission, and cause the antibodies to remain active far longer than they otherwise would without the vaccine. We’re not going to get something like the MMR vaccine, where you take it a couple of times as a child and you are set. Ideally, if we can immunise enough people against COVID (meaning 90+% of the population), we may be able to eradicate COVID completely from most countries (think smallpox/polio).

We haven’t eradicated the flu because 1) not enough people get the vaccine every year, 2) the effects of getting the flu are short term only for 99% of the population,  and 3) the cost for a government to have a nation-wide flu vaccination program to attempt to eradicate it is simply not worthwhile. Smallpox, polio, MMR on the other hand are devastating and worthwhile the cost of attempting eradication.


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## moXJO (13 July 2020)

basilio said:


> Glad you appreciated  it.



You always find the interesting ones


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Anyone knows the reasoning preventing Australian to get OUT?



I’m assuming it’s due to the inevitable sob stories that will be hyped up by the media about such people not being allowed to re-enter Australia when they wish to or at least not without proper quarantine.

If they can’t leave in the first place then it avoids that problem when they come back, are sent immediately to a prison-like facility and then moan about it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> People have choices.



In practice they don’t.

They need to go out in public to various shops, work and so on.

This isn’t a free market choice sort of thing where everyone gets to make their own decision. By its very nature it’s one decision for society as a whole.


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## Smurf1976 (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The alarmists seem to not realise the simple fact that unless you completely erradicate this virus from the whole planet (impossible, surely everyone realises that by now)




The bit I’m not convinced about is that eradication is really impossible.

NZ seems to have done it and likewise some Australian states seem to have at least plausibly achieved it.

Why, exactly, can others not achieve it?

Even if we’re going for the “flatten the curve” approach, basic maths says it was always going to take a long time to get through the population at a rate slow enough to avoid overloading hospitals. Nobody thought we’d have that done in 2020 surely?

Where it’ll get interesting economically though is overseas. Australia obviously has relevance to individuals here but at the global level the US is going to matter far more as will many other countries.


----------



## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

Spaniel14 said:


> The latest medical evidence is pointing towards showing that antibodies developed in the body to fight COVID, only remain for around 3 weeks. Meaning after 3 weeks of having it, you can get it again (and there is no guarantee it will hit you easier/harder than before), you’re not “immune” to it. Early days and not enough data to categorically prove it, but evidence is suggesting so. It’s not like the flu where once you’ve been exposed to a specific strain (which they vaccinate against the most common strain every year) the pathogens hang around for months, by which point we’re into summer and cases have dropped significantly. This is one of the primary reasons why doctors are so concerned about COVID versus the flu, and why they are urging governments to contain the spread, because COVID now is a strain on our medical system, but the long-term strain could be worse.




This is mostly or at least partially true. Assuming it is correct that you can get it again after a few weeks/month or two, we are all going to get it many times, a vaccine is completely impossible (nothing is going to work better than the virus itself, at least nothing we're going to come up with in a relevant number of years), so the perfect time to get my first dose and see how my own body reacts to it would be during a lockdown where I can't do anything anyway and at a stage where the hospitals are still underwhelmed and hey, people are still bothering to be scared about it and I'll probably get some sort of government assistance, as opposed to in a year or two when we've all stopped considering it to be a thing to particularly concerned about. I do think that there will at least be a fair degree of consistency within individuals in terms of severity, and repeated cases of the same virus should either be less severe or at least no more severe. Difficult to be 100% sure about that, but we can make some reasonable guesses. One thing which we can be almost certain of is that it won't mutate to become more severe. The same evolutionary tendencies exist, it doesn't help the virus to kill its host, if such a strain does mutate (and no doubt it will) it will knock itself out quickly and be less successful than milder strains. This is a respiratory virus and the same laws of nature apply to it as with others.



> There’s also possible evidence towards longer term neurological and respiratory effects, which given the virus has only been widespread for a few months, we may not see the actual effects for a long time yet. Potential for chronic lung disease, cognitive and psychological impairments. And these affect you, whether you were asymptomatic or in ICU (obviously the degree to which you are affected changes, but affected nonetheless).




There's also the possibility that it will give us superpowers!

Come on, there are literally millions of cases, it's the most intensely studied virus in all history. It hasn't been around for a long time but it is a virus the immune system completely eliminates, it's a respiratory disease, and it's not like it lays some seed in the respiratory system which causes damage later. This is just scaremongering. Asymptomatic people aren't going to end up with collapsed lungs, that's just over the top fearmongering.



> I understand your points about how difficult lockdowns are, and that governments need to think more about who should be locked down - but keep in mind governments work to give a solution that works for the entire country. It’s not perfect, and it will undoubtedly be hard on some people; but it is better than the alternative which is great for some people, and literally kills others.




The lockdowns have already killed far more than 10 times the number of people the virus has (in Australia) and we've barely begun to experience the grief they will cause. You are so one-sided in all of this. You are happy to ignore the problems caused by the lockdowns as though they don't matter or don't exist, you speak as though the virus deaths are the only ones that matter.



> They have a duty to keep all of their citizens safe, not just some of them.




Why do you not care about the harm the lockdowns bring to citizens? If we need to care about all citizens, which I agree with, why do something which harms so many people and kills more than the virus? Especially when you believe the virus can not be stopped anyway!



> If you do have friends who are having mental health issues, and you are concerned about suicidal tendencies, you should be urging them to seek professional help, and if they refuse to do so because they are “fine”, you should be highlighting them to the appropriate people so that they can act before it is too late. People think psychiatry isn’t for them and that it doesn’t work, but it can absolutely change somebody’s life and their perspective of it.




I don't know everyone in Australia. People all over Australia kill themselves. Multiple people per day in Australia. My own personal situation is not relevant in this discussion, neither are my friends. I'm not asking for your help in dealing with my own social circle.


----------



## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The bit I’m not convinced about is that eradication is really impossible.
> 
> NZ seems to have done it and likewise some Australian states seem to have at least plausibly achieved it.
> 
> Why, exactly, can others not achieve it?




There are currently people in New Zealand who have the virus. One literally broke out of where he was locked up, went out and bought alcohol a few days ago before being recovered. It's entirely possible that he infected someone else.

An outbreak in New Zealand is inevitable, it's just a matter of time.

For New Zealand, an island nation, fragmented, small population, it's possible to eradicate it. Keeping it out will require extreme measures (completely unrealistic).

For Australia it's extremely unlikely. For the New World it's obviously completely and utterly impossible. For the Old World, obviously it's stupid to even talk about it.

Unless you eradicate it from the whole world, eradicating it from an island only makes sense if you plan to keep that island permanently isolated or under extreme measures. New Zealand would be one of the few places where it might, maybe, sort of, make some sense... but probably not.

This time last year no human had the virus, and the virus possibly didn't exist. The only point in wiping out the virus is to allow us to live normally. If we live normally, one single case (which is inevitable) will result in the same thing happening again and again, every time a new case pops up.



> Even if we’re going for the “flatten the curve” approach, basic maths says it was always going to take a long time to get through the population at a rate slow enough to avoid overloading hospitals. Nobody thought we’d have that done in 2020 surely?




The flatten the curve models assumed the virus was far, far worse than it is, both in terms of severity and contagiousness. The goal was to have a lower peak later in the year rather than a spike earlier in the year. The assumption was that people could only get it once (the jury is still out on that one, though I suspect more is known than is being made publicly available). It was assumed that our best efforts would still only delay the peak by a few months and that doing our absolute best would have the peak later this year and by the end of the year we'd be over the worst of it with most people having had it and immune. As we now know that's not the case and very obviously the methods employed make no sense. At this point, it's months beyond obvious that we either need a curve or we need to eradicate or (I cringe to say it) we need to establish a new normal which gives us an acceptable level of indefinitely ongoing disease transmission in the community (this applies if it's a virus which can be caught no limit of times and each time gives no increasing level of immunity).



> Where it’ll get interesting economically though is overseas. Australia obviously has relevance to individuals here but at the global level the US is going to matter far more as will many other countries.




People say they know the media is garbage, dishonest, propaganda, etc, but still, people believe it. The media is scaremongering about the virus but radically understating the economic problems on the way. They're also not commenting on the current cold war, and they're barely touching on the very real possibility of an upcoming hot war.


----------



## Spaniel14 (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Assuming it is correct that you can get it again after a few weeks/month or two, we are all going to get it many times, a vaccine is completely impossible (nothing is going to work better than the virus itself, at least nothing we're going to come up with in a relevant number of years),




I would recommend understanding how vaccines work, vaccines work far better than the virus itself. If they didn’t, smallpox, MMR, polio would all be rife in modern society, which they are not due to vaccines being widely administered.

The remainder of your first paragraph is predominantly opinion, which differs from my own so I won’t comment further on it.

If we draw similarities with the Spanish Flu, there are really two outcomes of COVID. We leave it (as per the Spanish Flu) with no vaccine, it will last years, kill millions worldwide, and eventually burn itself out. Or we minimise the spread, press on to develop a vaccine to prevent, or a treatment to reduce the effects of the virus, and have significantly less deaths and get rid of it in less time. Ultimately the result is a herd immunity, the question is do you want more deaths and the pandemic lasting longer, or less deaths and shorter?



Sdajii said:


> There's also the possibility that it will give us superpowers!
> 
> Come on, there are literally millions of cases, it's the most intensely studied virus in all history. It hasn't been around for a long time but it is a virus the immune system completely eliminates, it's a respiratory disease, and it's not like it lays some seed in the respiratory system which causes damage later. This is just scaremongering. Asymptomatic people aren't going to end up with collapsed lungs, that's just over the top fearmongering.




There are multiple medical reports circulating of scarred lungs and recurring inflammation to the brain stem, across a broad range of COVID patients with varying symptoms. Not scaremongering, just commenting on early medical findings of longer term viral damage. These might prove to be statistically insignificant, and there may be no long term health issues after having the virus; but as it stands that is what the evidence is showing. Only time and further research will allow us to understand it fully. The damage suggested is primarily similar to what a very bad case of pneumonia would leave behind.



Sdajii said:


> The lockdowns have already killed far more than 10 times the number of people the virus has (in Australia) and we've barely begun to experience the grief they will cause. You are so one-sided in all of this. You are happy to ignore the problems caused by the lockdowns as though they don't matter or don't exist, you speak as though the virus deaths are the only ones that matter.




Do you have a citation for that figure? And do you have a correlation that shows those deaths were as a result of the lockdowns directly? I highly doubt there is any evidence for that, but happy to be proved wrong as I obviously cannot disprove it.



Sdajii said:


> Why do you not care about the harm the lockdowns bring to citizens? If we need to care about all citizens, which I agree with, why do something which harms so many people and kills more than the virus? Especially when you believe the virus can not be stopped anyway!




The answer to that is tied to the above comment regarding a correlation between deaths in lockdown and lockdown being the cause of those deaths. Has there been an increase in suicides which occurred in line with lockdowns being imposed? How do you draw this conclusion?



Sdajii said:


> I don't know everyone in Australia. People all over Australia kill themselves. Multiple people per day in Australia. My own personal situation is not relevant in this discussion, neither are my friends. I'm not asking for your help in dealing with my own social circle.




I never implied that you did. Your previous post stated that a friend of yours was likely to commit suicide due to being separated from his wife for such a long period due to border restrictions/lockdowns. I recommended that they seek professional help. If you stand at the sidelines and watch it happen, having raised the concern before it happened, you are implicit in their suicide. You cannot bring personal information which directly relates to somebody’s life and their potential suicidal tendencies into a discussion and then act like people are encroaching on your personal life and you are keeping it impersonal.


----------



## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

Spaniel14 said:


> I would recommend understanding how vaccines work, vaccines work far better than the virus itself. If they didn’t, smallpox, MMR, polio would all be rife in modern society, which they are not due to vaccines being widely administered.




Yeah, I just went to university where I earned a degree in biological science, I studied microbiology and earned a major in genetics. What would I know?

Smallpox was eradicated using a vaccine because everyone could be given the vaccine and it didn't harm them and made them immune. Smallpox wasn't a disease people routinely caught and got over using their own immune system, and if it had been, it would have worked better than the vaccine at giving immunity.

When you get various diseases you're often immune for life. No one who got chicken pox as a kid gets a chicken pox vaccine, but people who get the chicken pox vaccine need booster shots every few years.

This virus isn't like smallpox. It's a coronavirus. It works in a very different way. 



> The remainder of your first paragraph is predominantly opinion, which differs from my own so I won’t comment further on it.




Thank mercy.



> If we draw similarities with the Spanish Flu, there are really two outcomes of COVID. We leave it (as per the Spanish Flu) with no vaccine, it will last years, kill millions worldwide, and eventually burn itself out. Or we minimise the spread, press on to develop a vaccine to prevent, or a treatment to reduce the effects of the virus, and have significantly less deaths and get rid of it in less time. Ultimately the result is a herd immunity, the question is do you want more deaths and the pandemic lasting longer, or less deaths and shorter?




I take back my thanks to mercy and wish you'd kept to your word. I think I've answered this enough times in this thread already.



> There are multiple medical reports circulating of scarred lungs and recurring inflammation to the brain stem, across a broad range of COVID patients with varying symptoms. Not scaremongering, just commenting on early medical findings of longer term viral damage. These might prove to be statistically insignificant, and there may be no long term health issues after having the virus; but as it stands that is what the evidence is showing. Only time and further research will allow us to understand it fully. The damage suggested is primarily similar to what a very bad case of pneumonia would leave behind.




There's a difference between 'multiple reports' (out of over TEN MILLION RECORDED CASES) of lung damage and absurdly unlikely delayed onset extreme lung disorders which don't show up until long after the virus is completely out of the system. To be concerned about something so utterly unrealistic is only not scaremongering if it is unrealistic enough not to scare anyone.



> Do you have a citation for that figure? And do you have a correlation that shows those deaths were as a result of the lockdowns directly? I highly doubt there is any evidence for that, but happy to be proved wrong as I obviously cannot disprove it.




They were saying it on the news this afternoon, I can't remember the record, but since literally hundreds of people die literally every day in Australia from all manner of causes and the total number of virus deaths in Australia is just over 100 (over the entire 'pandemic'), amounting to around half a person per day, it's hardly difficult to use your own critical thinking to figure that it's an underestimate. And that's not even taking into account that the majority of the virus deaths were people already close to death before they caught the virus.



> The answer to that is tied to the above comment regarding a correlation between deaths in lockdown and lockdown being the cause of those deaths. Has there been an increase in suicides which occurred in line with lockdowns being imposed? How do you draw this conclusion?




A mental health expert was making that claim on the Australian media today. Of course that means little, but it's extraordinarily obvious that since a lack of human interaction and a fear of it are one of the most extreme ways to cause depression, and financial distress is another, and lack of vocation is another, and these are literally three of the most extreme, possibly the three absolute top ways to cause depression, and depression is one of the main causes of suicide and all three of these things very strongly correlate with suicide and we know the restrictions are causing a huge increase in all three... it's really not that hard a stretch of the imagination, right? Don't be obtuse.



> I never implied that you did. Your previous post stated that a friend of yours was likely to commit suicide due to being separated from his wife for such a long period due to border restrictions/lockdowns. I recommended that they seek professional help. If you stand at the sidelines and watch it happen, having raised the concern before it happened, you are implicit in their suicide.




Thanks for assuming I've stood at the sidelines watching it happen to the point of being implicit in a suicide! Good grief, hang your head in shame. I've gone to extreme lengths to do everything humanly possible, while also doing what I can for multiple other people with extreme problems due to this situation, not least of whom is myself after literally losing virtually all my wealth and worldly possessions earlier this year. Earlier this year I faced a literal struggle for my own survival and required the help of friends and it was a struggle to get back on my feet. Honestly, just surviving this year in my circumstances is impressive enough, you have no idea what I've been through, and for the last few months now I've managed to keep busy, save money, and do what I can to assist multiple others, but hey, you make yourself feel better by suggesting I may be complicit in someone else's suicide through passive negligence.


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## SirRumpole (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The lockdowns have already killed far more than 10 times the number of people the virus has (in Australia) and we've barely begun to experience the grief they will cause. You are so one-sided in all of this. You are happy to ignore the problems caused by the lockdowns as though they don't matter or don't exist, you speak as though the virus deaths are the only ones that matter.




You keep saying that, but where is the evidence ?


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## Smurf1976 (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> There's a difference between 'multiple reports' (out of over TEN MILLION RECORDED CASES) of lung damage and absurdly unlikely delayed onset extreme lung disorders which don't show up until long after the virus is completely out of the system. To be concerned about something so utterly unrealistic is only not scaremongering if it is unrealistic enough not to scare anyone.




What % of those who've had COVID-19 have actually been subject to proper examination for lung damage?

The impression I get is "very few" unless it's so bad they're showing immediate and obvious symptoms. I could be wrong there, but that's certainly the impression I have, that if I get this virus then a chest x-ray isn't a given to even be done unless I end up in intensive care.

Regardless of what happens with this medically going forward, one thing I think is clear is that there should now be a greater awareness that it most certainly is possible to have irrecoverable situations. That's a point both sides of the debate agree on whether they acknowledge it or not. The "lock everything down" side is basically saying this is a crisis and whatever it costs well so be it. The "let it rip" side is basically saying that this is unresolvable, humans can't deal with this so there's no choice other than to let it go through the population.

Like it or not, both of those arguments amount to acknowledgement that humanity has a problem that no amount of money can solve and that message is one that probably won't be forgotten by many.

Things like those who mess about with viruses, chemicals or whatever which, if it does go wrong, cannot be effectively dealt with are likely to face very much tougher regulation and scrutiny going forward. Things where once the genie's out of the bottle it can't be put back in if the results are bad. The argument against that has been given a pretty hefty blow by this one given that both sides of the debate rest upon it being true. 

I wouldn't be surprised if, long term, that's the main outcome. A much greater wariness of anything which, once done either intentionally or accidentally, cannot be reversed.


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## Knobby22 (14 July 2020)

The USA is running a real time experiment for us. At the very least we should do is wait a few months to see how it pans out.


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The USA is running a real time experiment for us. At the very least we should do is wait a few months to see how it pans out.



True but for a real model Sweden did it earlier
US is fragmented so if you add coro deaths from Florida and suicides from lockdown NY or California, it become messy
Sweden is more valid as it is the worst case scenario in term of letting it run its course
They did not use masks..now we know it can help, and the sicks had a lower chance of survival than now due to improved knowledge and treatments
So assuming that Sweden is the worst result we can have, with cold weather added for free, what is the best for a country?
They are the clear winner .
As for anyone in july 2020  thinking that permanent eradication in any place on earth is even possible, defy belief..maybe Antarctica?


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## Knobby22 (14 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> True but for a real model Sweden did it earlier
> US is fragmented so if you add coro deaths from Florida and suicides from lockdown NY or California, it become messy
> Sweden is more valid as it is the worst case scenario in term of letting it run its course
> They did not use masks..now we know it can help, and the sicks had a lower chance of survival than now due to improved knowledge and treatments
> ...



Yes.
We could use a version of the Sweden model but what I want to know from the USA uncontrolled reality is statistics. In such a large population, we should find out a lot of data indicating long and short term effects. The Morrison Government aim was suppression  not eradication. I know we have to stop any further lockdowns in the future as it is destructive.

After this latest (Victorian) lockdown which is meant to end in 5 weeks, there needs to be a clear direction from the Prime Minister as to the path we take and how we take it. What should the limits be? Should we be retaining state borders? International travel protocols etc.

The delay has been good, more treatments are available, we have more knowledge, hopefully more of an idea on whether a vaccine is practical.  I think wait 6 weeks  till September then make some changes. This is when the present government largesse ends so I think the Government is thinking this.


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## Klogg (14 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In practice they don’t.
> 
> They need to go out in public to various shops, work and so on.
> 
> This isn’t a free market choice sort of thing where everyone gets to make their own decision. By its very nature it’s one decision for society as a whole.




It's not black and white, you're correct. But I could argue that for almost everything.
If I don't care take of my health and develop diabetes, your taxes fund my health bills
If I don't/can't get work, your taxes fund my unemplopyment benefits

The list goes on. We don't ban sugar, or mandate certain lines of work, just because you're funding my existence at some point.

The aim is to maximise freedom within limits. My argument is we've locked-down so much, we're trading off too much freedom for minimal gain.

I'm saying I'd rather lose 0.5% of the Victorian population (far less in # of human years) and have the remaining 99.5% live normal, healthy lives. Yes, one or many of those lives could be my close family, or even me.

But the need for a 'state of emergency' is far from clear, yet we just sit back and let it happen, as if there's no other alternative. I'm yet to see a *rational *argument for the lockdown - show me what we're trading off, and why it's worthwhile. Instead, we just quote # of people dead as if that's all there is to this equation.


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## rederob (14 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> I said 'they will be' better off.
> More people will have died. But they will on average be deaths brought forward by a few years.
> Meanwhile, their economy will not have been destroyed as badly by rolling lockdowns.
> In other news, dictator dan is now threatening stage 4 lockdowns. In other words, he wants to kill any form of economic activity to save a few 85 year olds.
> What a joke.



You believe deaths is the issue here.
It is not.
It is the number of people being infected and the multiplier effect on the economy.
You cannot have a sound economy with high rates of infection.
More importantly, you cannot have a functional economy with an increasing _*R* _(ie. basic reproduction number).


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The delay has been good, more treatments are available, we have more knowledge,



No denial : fully agree and initial lockdown was required as we were first in line with china, but everything should have been released a month ago at least as for the current Victoria one, what a waste of lives and economic health.
Anyway, what can i do, prisoner in my own country,  on jobkeeper dripline


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> No denial : fully agree and initial lockdown was required as we were first in line with china, but everything should have been released a month ago at least as for the current Victoria one, what a waste of lives and economic health.
> Anyway, what can i do, prisoner in my own country,  on jobkeeper dripline



No reason to complain actually, i live the leftist dream


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## over9k (14 July 2020)

Exactly. Half the population too sick to work does not an economy make. The combined man-hours lost due to lockdowns is waaay lower than whatever it would be if we just let the virus run rampant.


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## jbocker (14 July 2020)

I can see that there are some who have some 'acceptance' to let some elders and the susceptible die in order to save some younger from suicide (due to lockdown and/or financial hardship). But I am not convinced that letting the virus rip does in itself prevents suicide nor prevents financial hardship for many. Having a virus loaded work environment causes stress for those who chronically fear its affect. After all it also a state of mind which can also lead to suicide. 
I hear your argument and it certainly needs focus to prevention as much we do with the virus.


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## moXJO (14 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> I can see that there are some who have some 'acceptance' to let some elders and the susceptible die in order to save some younger from suicide (due to lockdown and/or financial hardship). But I am not convinced that letting the virus rip does in itself prevents suicide nor prevents financial hardship for many. Having a virus loaded work environment causes stress for those who chronically fear its affect. After all it also a state of mind which can also lead to suicide.
> I hear your argument and it certainly needs focus to prevention as much we do with the virus.



People dying from the virus can cause just as much grief. Also any long term disabilities caused from the virus. We still seem to be learning about this disease.

Extended lock downs don't do anyone any favours either. The longer out of routine society gets the more social unrest starts brewing. Jobseeker and keeper were a smart and necessary move to keep it at bay. I have no doubt lock downs for business owners are highly stressful.

In Thailand a lot of people are dying from suicide. They couldn't afford to feed their families. Taxi drivers, tourist operators etc. Poorer countries are doing it extremely tough.


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## jbocker (14 July 2020)

Norway Sweden comparison (and Finland) Map shows location to each other the details of the virus as snap shot  14/07/2020 today from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Add the populations of Norway and Finland they approximate Sweden. Then look at the numbers. Significant and worth watching over time.


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## wayneL (14 July 2020)

I think the neglected metric is the promotion of fear of the virus.

*If*, and I do say if, this virus is really not worse then a bad flu season (which many health professionals are seeming to posit), then it is this fear which is creating the greatest economic effect both in terms of the behaviour of we proles and in government action.

When I was a kid in California the Hong Kong flu was running rampant and was actually a very big topic of conversation and concern... this I remember even though I was only about 8yo at the time.

But it didn't trash the economy, certainly not to the extent that we see today.

There are of course several facets to the current economic situation, but the promotion of fear is unprecedented.


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## sptrawler (14 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> There are of course several facets to the current economic situation, but the promotion of fear is unprecedented.



Which goes back to where we started, why is there so much fear being generated?


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## Klogg (14 July 2020)

rederob said:


> You believe deaths is the issue here.
> It is not.
> It is the number of people being infected and the multiplier effect on the economy.
> You cannot have a sound economy with high rates of infection.
> More importantly, you cannot have a functional economy with an increasing _*R* _(ie. basic reproduction number).




In the shot term, you're very right. But once the wave is through, its through.

We can either face the music now, or forever lockdown our economy.


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## rederob (14 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> In the shot term, you're very right. But once the wave is through, its through.
> 
> We can either face the music now, or forever lockdown our economy.



There is no limit to the number of waves until a vaccine is available.
Additionally, well targeted "lockdowns" have proven effective and need not prevent the rest of the economy running normally.


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Exactly. Half the population too sick to work does not an economy make. The combined man-hours lost due to lockdowns is waaay lower than whatever it would be if we just let the virus run rampant.



Figures? Sweden for example?


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Which goes back to where we started, why is there so much fear being generated?



So the non conspiracy concept of a pushed reset
Virus as a pretext to a societal change.
Maybe to accept universal income in  rightist minds or removal of freedom, ramping war for the "real leftist at heart"..so much being pushed under the covid pretext


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> So the non conspiracy concept of a pushed reset
> Virus as a pretext to a societal change.
> Maybe to accept universal income in  rightist minds or removal of freedom, ramping war for the "real leftist at heart"..so much being pushed under the covid pretext



Btw, working like a charm judging by the reactions here and even denials of facts by even the most level headed persons of this forum.


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## over9k (14 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Figures? Sweden for example?



Depends on how long the lockdowns are necessary for frog. You should know this. 

NZ's basically life as normal (aside from the borders being closed) now and they didn't lock down for long at all because they did the lockdowns early/before the virus could really spread. 

The U.S meanwhile is long past the point of no return.


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## Klogg (14 July 2020)

rederob said:


> There is no limit to the number of waves until a vaccine is available.
> Additionally, well targeted "lockdowns" have proven effective and need not prevent the rest of the economy running normally.




There sure is. Herd immunity is real.

If the counter argument is that the virus mutates, so immunity won't last... well neither will a vaccine in that case.

Related to lockdowns, check this out:




Sweden have only had minor modifications to their social distancing, but new cases are falling.


R-effective is basically below 0 in a country that has not locked-down.


Similarly, daily deaths are dropping:




Given they've run the same policy most of the way through, I'd say they're at the tail end of wave 1, with a reasonable portion of their population developing anti-bodies. Not enough for herd immunity yet, but they're much further progressed than Australia. We're just kicking the can down the road.


EDIT: If you'd like to debate the effectiveness of Sweden's approach, do so with data please. Not forecasts, not emotive articles - data.


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## over9k (14 July 2020)

Again, whether we all think lockdowns should occur or not is irrelevant. They're going to happen. Let's profit.

Kogan has now had a stellar run for example.


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## moXJO (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Again, whether we all think lockdowns should occur or not is irrelevant. They're going to happen. Let's profit.
> 
> Kogan has now had a stellar run for example.



Its a great time for hobbyists, that's for sure.


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## Klogg (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Again, whether we all think lockdowns should occur or not is irrelevant. They're going to happen. Let's profit.
> 
> Kogan has now had a stellar run for example.




You're right.

On topic:
I believe the price you're paying for online retailers in most cases is well and truly overcooked.
On the other hand, looking at physical retailers that have strong online components is a much better strategy.

Take a look at ADH. Two strong online offerings growing at 50%+.
Mocka alone generates ~$10m EBIT currently, with revenue about half that of TPW (but better margins). Yet with ADH you get the Adairs online & Adairs retail stores, along with Mocka, cheaper than TPW.
Go figure.

And, once COVID has passed, those retailers with physical components that actually survive, will enjoy a lack of competition and cheaper rental rates.


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## over9k (14 July 2020)

Agreed completely. This is walmart. Going down the gurgler until they announced walmart+, a proper competitor/version of amazon prime. 
	

		
			
		

		
	




The vast majority of my capital is in U.S markets though so I obviously follow them much more closely.

AU's just chop chop chop for the next couple of weeks until we find out whether this victorian outbreak is going to wreck the whole country or not. We're currently in whack-a-mole mode with no certainty that we aren't going to go back to closed state borders, shut pubs etc etc again.


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## IFocus (14 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> There sure is. Herd immunity is real.
> 
> Sweden have only had minor modifications to their social distancing, but new cases are falling.
> 
> Given they've run the same policy most of the way through, I'd say they're at the tail end of wave 1, *with a reasonable portion of their population developing anti-bodies.* Not enough for herd immunity yet, but they're much further progressed than Australia. We're just kicking the can down the road.




Best I could find is 6% there is a 14% in a populated area that is a long way from herd immunity.

Not arguing against the Swedish model as its far too early will need at least 2 to 3 years before the different approaches can really be evaluated fully IMHO.

BTW Isn't what the US in some states are doing the same by default?


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## Klogg (14 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Best I could find is 6% there is a 14% in a populated area that is a long way from herd immunity.
> 
> Not arguing against the Swedish model as its far too early will need at least 2 to 3 years before the different approaches can really be evaluated fully IMHO.
> 
> BTW Isn't what the US in some states are doing the same by default?



I've derailed this thread far too many times. Will respond later on in the appropriate thread if that's OK.


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## over9k (14 July 2020)

On a completely related note, anyone else just absolutely seething about/generally with the whole situation at the moment? 

I mean the victorian outbreak was bad enough, but the fact that it's been allowed to spread is just unforgivable.


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## Klogg (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> On a completely related note, anyone else just absolutely seething about/generally with the whole situation at the moment?
> 
> I mean the victorian outbreak was bad enough, but the fact that it's been allowed to spread is just unforgivable.




Only that such an easily addressable issue was not fixed sooner.

If we are aiming to suppress the spread, let's do it right the first time.


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## moXJO (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> On a completely related note, anyone else just absolutely seething about/generally with the whole situation at the moment?
> 
> I mean the victorian outbreak was bad enough, but the fact that it's been allowed to spread is just unforgivable.



This year has been a write off to most people.


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## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Exactly. Half the population too sick to work does not an economy make. The combined man-hours lost due to lockdowns is waaay lower than whatever it would be if we just let the virus run rampant.




We literally couldn't make half the population sick if we tried. Literally most people don't even have symptoms. If we literally give everyone in the world a dose of the virus, literally simultaneously, we still wouldn't have half the population sick. In the real world we would have a slighty struggle to have a particularly large percentage of the population out of action at any given time if we literally put in a reasonable effort to make it happen, and in the realistic scenario of the real world, we have a real life experiment (Sweden) doing as little as any country could reasonably be expected to do, in a cold climate, and we can see what's actually happening, and it's not what you're fearmongering about.


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## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> I can see that there are some who have some 'acceptance' to let some elders and the susceptible die in order to save some younger from suicide (due to lockdown and/or financial hardship). But I am not convinced that letting the virus rip does in itself prevents suicide nor prevents financial hardship for many. Having a virus loaded work environment causes stress for those who chronically fear its affect. After all it also a state of mind which can also lead to suicide.
> I hear your argument and it certainly needs focus to prevention as much we do with the virus.




If you want to specifically look at the suicide issue (which is by absolutely positively no means the whole problem of the restrictions, it's not even anywhere near the majority of the harm caused, just one of many many facets), there's a huge difference between people facing a problem together, and people being forced to actively avoid seeking the comfort and assistance of friends and family, under the enforcement of humans with authority over them. People working together in a difficult situation causes people to be stimulated and form camaraderie, which is a good way to prevent depression. Being isolated and forced not to take action is an extreme way to induce depression. Depression is almost essential for causing suicidal ideation in most cases.


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## over9k (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> We literally couldn't make half the population sick if we tried.



I literally wasn't being literal. You appear to be a literal raving loon. 

Saying XYZ should or shouldn't happen is irrelevant. What we all think changes precisely nothing. You need to end your crusade.


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## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> Saying XYZ should or shouldn't happen is irrelevant. What we all think changes precisely nothing.




What's it like to believe that individuals discussing things has no affect on anyone else, or alternatively, what's it like to believe that public opinion means nothing and has no impact on anything? What's it like to believe that individuals discussing topics as groups and exploring ideas has no value?



> You need to end your crusade.




Funny how some people are arrogant enough to make statements like this to people they disagree with rather than discussing the topic in a meaningful way.

By all means respond to what I say with relevant points and arguments etc, but a post like this is stupid and leaves no potential for further meaningful discussion.


----------



## over9k (14 July 2020)

It's not supposed to leave potential for discussion. Its entire purpose is precisely to do the complete opposite and STOP this "discussion". How are you still not getting that? 

This is not a thread for discussing our personal opinions reference what the government's coronavirus policies should be, it's a thread for discussing what the economic impacts of said virus pandemic have been/are and as an extension of that, how to profit (or at least protect our wealth) from them. 

Person A reckons X should be done, person B reckons Y should be done, person C reckons Z should be done, blah blah blah, guess what? This thread isn't about what we reckon should be done, only what the effects of the pandemic and what either is or isn't being done in response to it actually are. 

Just shut up already. 

All of you.


----------



## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If you want to specifically look at the suicide issue (which is by absolutely positively no means the whole problem of the restrictions, it's not even anywhere near the majority of the harm caused, just one of many many facets), there's a huge difference between people facing a problem together, and people being forced to actively avoid seeking the comfort and assistance of friends and family, under the enforcement of humans with authority over them. People working together in a difficult situation causes people to be stimulated and form camaraderie, which is a good way to prevent depression. Being isolated and forced not to take action is an extreme way to induce depression. Depression is almost essential for causing suicidal ideation in most cases.



@jbocker playing on the emotional cord for the elderly:
my sister in law works in an assisted living in France, the elderlies were literally letting themselves die as they had absolutely nothing to live for during the lockdown there, they could not wait for it to end to be able to break the forced isolation not only from their family, but also social activities, visit etc
I would bet anything you can find as many proof as you want that what I write here is true

So what you really mean is that we can let very old people die, who cares they are nearly over, young people die and pay for years for that extended lockdown mistakes but not your age range because there is some actually well known statistical risk not big, but not zero that you might be a victim
Let you judge the ethics there

The only certain fact is that whatever lockdowns are mandated etc , cry and fight as much as we want, the virus will do its job, which is to replicate and contaminate now or later.
We can dream of vaccine if it helps people , but there will be none effective in the coming couple of years and it will take a while for that basic truth to sink in both people and leaders mind
So, back to investment:
the fake vaccine-> CSL,
invest in treatments
and the fact that sooner or later we will have to reopen:
buy selective undervalued physical players, be it shop or even attraction parks etc.
While you can by electronic on line, ladies will still like shopping for extra little black dress etc
even better maybe we could actually bet against the AUD, by deferring the inevitable, we maintain an artificially high currency prone to a relatively fast collapse.
To debate...


----------



## wayneL (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> It's not supposed to leave potential for discussion. Its entire purpose is precisely to do the complete opposite and STOP this "discussion". How are you still not getting that?
> 
> This is not a thread for discussing our personal opinions reference what the government's coronavirus policies should be, it's a thread for discussing what the economic impacts of said virus pandemic have been/are and as an extension of that, how to profit (or at least protect our wealth) from them.
> 
> ...



Okay well let me encapsulate and wind up this thread with a succintcity(sic).

We're all ****ed!


----------



## over9k (14 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> Okay well let me encapsulate and wind up this thread with a succintcity(sic).
> 
> We're all ****ed!



The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.


----------



## wayneL (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.



I am filling out my immigration papers for Sweden as we speak.

Whoda thunk it, Sweden, the last bastion of liberty?


----------



## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.




We can not remain in lockdown forever.

The inevitable is still inevitable, even if you delay it.


----------



## satanoperca (14 July 2020)

over9k said:


> You need to end your crusade.



You might wish to look in a mirror occasionally.
Sdajii offers a contextual point of opinion that should be consider, like everyone elses



over9k said:


> The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.




There is no way people will confirm if we continue to go into lockdown, human behaviour dictates this, not science or ideologies or opinions or thoughts. We are just animals in the end.

As for "Not a Chance". Definition of insanity is?


----------



## SirRumpole (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> We can not remain in lockdown forever.
> 
> The inevitable is still inevitable, even if you delay it.




The whole country is not being locked down now, if you don't include the international boarders and even those are open for returning travellers.

Hotspots are being locked down, but the people of Qld, SA, WA and most of NSW can slowly get back to normal. So that's now the strategy detect and isolate where outbreaks occur, relax restrictions where there are no outbreaks.

Seems sensible to me.


----------



## satanoperca (14 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The whole country is not being locked down now, if you don't include the international boarders and even those are open for returning travellers.
> 
> Hotspots are being locked down, but the people of Qld, SA, WA and most of NSW can slowly get back to normal. So that's now the strategy detect and isolate where outbreaks occur, relax restrictions where there are no outbreaks.
> 
> Seems sensible to me.




Really, Sydney will be in lock down by the end of the week. 

I'm in Melbourne, social distancing seems like a fairy tale. 

Everyone needs to remember for this strategy to work, 99.5% of the population needs to comply, well this will never happen, if it was even slightly feasible, then why do we have police and goals, if everyone complied with the letter of the law.

PS. The whole thing is being driven by fear and greed. As a society we do not discuss one of 2 things that is inevitable for all living creatures, life and death. We use death to scare, just look how religion has controlled the sphere of fear of 1000's of years, be good and comply to heaven or if not, go to hell.

If more in society accepted death, discussed it, acknowledged it, we would be in a better place.


----------



## rederob (14 July 2020)

Klogg said:


> I've derailed this thread far too many times. Will respond later on in the appropriate thread if that's OK.



You keep referencing the Swedish model because they have not gone as far as other European nations in terms of affecting their economy.  
Sweden has not come close to herd immunity which is estimated to require over 6 million of their population to be affected, compared to the paltry 75k to date.  In other words, no less than another 85 similar waves would need to sweep through Sweden for their magical immunity to kick in.
The thing we should be looking at more closely, however, are the industries which are most impacted by COV19.
Across the globe travel, tourism and hospitality have suffered most.  In Sweden tourism contributes less than 3% to GDP, while in France it is nearer 10% and Italy 13%.   
It is important to use reliable equivalences if you are going to propose one country has done better because "x," as it is likely to be more complicated than that.
I am on the record as liking a lot of what Sweden has done.  However, they are seen as more socially responsible than most nations and, as a result, less likely to indulge in the individual stupidities that cause the virus to prosper.


----------



## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The whole country is not being locked down now, if you don't include the international boarders and even those are open for returning travellers.
> 
> Hotspots are being locked down, but the people of Qld, SA, WA and most of NSW can slowly get back to normal. So that's now the strategy detect and isolate where outbreaks occur, relax restrictions where there are no outbreaks.
> 
> Seems sensible to me.




And can anyone tell me what will happen if things go back to normal?

If not, let me tell you: The inevitable will happen.

Do you expect or propose an indefinite state of locking people down whenever there is an outbreak?

I'm in Melbourne, I have been for four and a half months, since just right before the first lockdowns. The first time we were locked down the streets were empty, I was walking around in the middle of the street, there were no cars, it was surreal. This time I'm not sure if there has been a reduction in traffic or the traffic is normal and I'm just imagining it, but it's close enough to normal that I don't know. The first time at the supermarket everyone looked terrified, bewildered, panicked. This time they're just going shopping, they either look like it's a normal day, or they look fed up, bored, etc. (and if they're fed up and bored they're obviously not keen to play by the rules, and at best they're doing it grudgingly and half-heartedly, and clearly their diligence will only decline).

You can not maintain a state of emergency unless you have actual problems. People just aren't going to take it seriously. My friends interstate tell me everyone is just going about their days like nothing is different.

People aren't going to take this seriously indefinitely. Sure, a few will. A vocal minority will chirp about it online, but months ago many of us were talking about the inevitability of emergency fatigue, and now in Melbourne we're clearly seeing it. Most people just don't care, they're sick of being locked up. This isn't totalitarian China, people in a free country are going to want to act like it's a free country. I'm literally legally banned from visiting a friend. It would literally be illegal for me to go inside my neighbour's home for a cup of coffee, or to sit in a park and chat with a friend. That is not an ongoingly stable situation in Australia. A significant proportion of the population will ignore the law and that proportion will increase each time they are subjected to it.

The reality is that this disease really isn't that bad, which means people can't be kept scared by it. This isn't the plague where people are horribly sick and dying all around. The hyped up media isn't matching the reality and people can tell. Old people, cancer patients, etc, they've always died, it usually doesn't scare people. Heck, even legitimate dangers like smoking, drinking, etc don't scare everyone. In a situation which relies on everyone doing the right thing, in a free country, it's just not going to work, and neither should it in this case.


----------



## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

rederob said:


> You keep referencing the Swedish model because they have not gone as far as other European nations in terms of affecting their economy.
> Sweden has not come close to herd immunity which is estimated to require over 6 million of their population to be affected, compared to the paltry 75k to date.  In other words, no less than another 85 similar waves would need to sweep through Sweden for their magical immunity to kick in.




So, to summarise what you're saying: Even when no effort is made to contain the virus, only a paltry little number of people are affected.

You're literally saying the virus isn't spreading fast enough, in a scenario of no restrictions.

...and this is your argument for locking everyone down!


----------



## macca (14 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> I am filling out my immigration papers for Sweden as we speak.
> 
> Whoda thunk it, Sweden, the last bastion of liberty?




A few countries in Asia new exactly what to do, did it promptly and have never shut down either.

They have had plenty of experience with bugs from China over the years, we should have copied them from day one


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## wayneL (14 July 2020)

macca said:


> A few countries in Asia new exactly what to do, did it promptly and have never shut down either.
> 
> They have had plenty of experience with bugs from China over the years, we should have copied them from day one



Yeah but, Sweden has other attractions


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## qldfrog (14 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> Yeah but, Sweden has other attractions



long blond hair on long legs instead of long black hair on short legs...matter of taste ;-)
it will be hard to visit either unless you are not Australian?. Australian have to stay behind our new walls..we are learning daily from Mr Xi

Now where are the economics there?


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## rederob (14 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> So, to summarise what you're saying: Even when no effort is made to contain the virus, only a paltry little number of people are affected.
> 
> You're literally saying the virus isn't spreading fast enough, in a scenario of no restrictions.
> 
> ...and this is your argument for locking everyone down!



No.
Please learn what the Swedes actually did, and what they continue to do.
And try not to invent arguments which do not exist.


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## Sdajii (14 July 2020)

rederob said:


> No.
> Please learn what the Swedes actually did, and what they continue to do.
> And try not to invent arguments which do not exist.




Okay, so they're doing an appropriate amount to control it? What is it?


----------



## Muschu (15 July 2020)

We were meant to be in Sweden now - visiting good friends in Stockholm aged in their 70s, as are we. 
There's no need to repeat the current Nordic stats here other than to say that Sweden, with roughly twice the population of its neighbours, has a hugely greater death rate per capita.  Yes, they have tried to keep their economy viable - but are struggling with multiple issues [including economic] and, unless it has changed very recently the Swedes are not allowed to travel to Denmark, Norway and Finland.  Relationships have been damaged and that has other consequences. 
There's no perfect answer... including Sweden's. Safer here than there at this time.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 July 2020)

Western Sydney might have to go into lockdown and isolate from the rest of the city.


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## Smurf1976 (15 July 2020)

I'll simply observe that this debate, and by that I mean in the overall context not specifically on ASF, has the same problem as other contentious issues such as (among others) energy.

If you are not personally an expert or at least having direct access to data and the knowledge required to properly interpret it, then getting to the truth is extremely difficult.

These debates all have the same basic problem that the majority of comment in the media etc is at least somewhat tainted by politics. Not generally by outright lies but more by omission.

Getting proper, factual information on these sorts of subjects, information that's free of political bias, is not at all easy. It's hard enough if you know what you're looking for, virtually impossible for the layperson.

I think that goes a long way to explaining why these sorts of subjects become problematic on this forum and elsewhere. Discussion is based upon "beliefs" rather than factual information and even if someone really does know the facts and is telling the full story, it's hard for others to ascertain that this is indeed the case given the volume of biased "information" around. Someone could easily dismiss the truth as a lie whilst believing a lie to be the truth.

COVID-19 has turned in to a Left Vs Right political divide in much the same way as other subjects. I use energy as an example, since it's something I've been involved with for an extended period long before the subject held any mainstream interest, but it's the same with rather a lot of things it seems. Most of what's said isn't wrong, just guilty of omitting some of the important points which don't suit one side or the other.

If the facts were understood and beyond doubt, if we didn't have that political bias in it distorting the picture, then and only then could sensible informed decisions be made.

Should I support a lockdown? Should I support the "let it rip" approach? Something else? Without having proper factually correct information, and being confident that this information is indeed correct and contains no errors or omissions, it's impossible to know.

End result = these subjects end up as political battlegrounds based on ideology. It happens on this forum, it happens in mainstream society, it happens in politics.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'll simply observe that this debate, and by that I mean in the overall context not specifically on ASF, has the same problem as other contentious issues such as (among others) energy.




You never observe, you hijack and dictate.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> These debates all have the same basic problem that the majority of comment in the media etc is at least somewhat tainted by politics. Not generally by outright lies but more by omission.




Hmm, well I can see your point , to a point.

It seems to me that the public political stance, from the politicians themselves that is has been fairly bipartisan, ie they all get access to the medical advice and should reach the same conclusions on how to react to outbreaks. But even so, yes there are political incursions. Like the "Right" want the economy opened up and income supplements to discontinue, while the Left want an extension of welfare payments and more restrictions.

You can certainly see the political divide on this forum too. Those that keep banging on about individual rights and sod everyone else wouldn't be voting Labor I wouldn't think but opinions are also determined by personal circumstances. Those that are young and fit may think that the situation is all a hoax to extend political control over the populace, while those in vulnerable groups think restrictions are a good thing because it protects them. Vested interests are pretty powerful.

The first political test will come in the Qld election. I reckon Ana will get a boost by her efforts at keeping Qld relatively virus free, and the Opposition will be hoping for an outbreak just before polling day.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 July 2020)

I thought this thread was for the topic of economic implications, not politics.


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## SirRumpole (15 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I thought this thread was for the topic of economic implications, not politics.




Politics determines economics in a lot of ways. As I said, if the Right get their way the economy will be open for business again, if the Left prevail it will be closed for longer. That's the way democracy works.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Politics determines economics in a lot of ways. As I said, if the Right get their way the economy will be open for business again, if the Left prevail it will be closed for longer. That's the way democracy works.




Well Sir Rumple; I have deliberately ignored many threads on ASF because the discussions haven't been fruitful when politics have been involved.

Discussing the economic implications of government policy and direction, or possible government policy and direction, is different to advocation of political ideology.


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## SirRumpole (15 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Well Sir Rumple; I have deliberately ignored many threads on ASF because the discussions haven't been fruitful when politics have been involved.
> 
> Discussing the economic implications of government policy and direction, or possible government policy and direction, is different to advocation of political ideology.




Well, people have to come to a conclusion as to what political policy achieves the best result so that sometimes means agreeing or disagreeing with political policy.

Of course, it depends on who the "best result" benefits the most. The individual voter, businesses, the country at large etc. We all have to make our own minds up about that.

If you want to argue that as this is a stock market forum we should only focus on the benefits to business then I would say that is a false direction as business is only one part of the equation.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Well, people have to come to a conclusion as to what political policy achieves the best result so that sometimes means agreeing or disagreeing with political policy.
> 
> Of course, it depends on who the "best result" benefits the most. The individual voter, businesses, the country at large etc. We all have to make our own minds up about that.




Well that is democracy, people will vote for what is best for them. This thread isn't for political philosophy and science, so I won't go reciting Plato for you.


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## SirRumpole (15 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> so I won't go reciting Plato for you.




Thanks.


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## wayneL (15 July 2020)

Politics and policy at the same etymology, therefore if we are discussing economic policy, it is inseparable from political policy... so long as we stick to the economics other than going down the identity politics rabbit hole, hey.

All of these things are rather a matter of opinion and all policies, economic and political,have  winners and losers, always. In fact every great economic theory has as its core, some sort of political philosophy.

I can see all of this resulting in western economies heading down the MMT avenue, essentially an economic theory but also rooted in political philosophy, the implications of such which can only be discussed on a political level... Winners and losers again, and I'm talking just about among we plebeians. Winners and losers exist at every level, even the political and societal *elite*.

When there is a monetary reset,and you can bet your life that that will happen (just look at the history of monetary systems in the last 150 years to see ample evidence of the frequency of this happening), it is a certainty that there will be some overarching political agenda to match.

It is utterly foolish to ignore this.


----------



## rederob (15 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Okay, so they're doing an appropriate amount to control it? What is it?



That information is freely available.


wayneL said:


> Politics and policy at the same etymology, therefore if we are discussing economic policy, it is inseparable from political policy... so long as we stick to the economics other than going down the identity politics rabbit hole, hey.



COV19 has caused many governments to rapidly enact economic remedies on the back foot.
The "surplus" promised year after year by our self proclaimed "better economic manager" of a federal government will instead be the biggest debt burden ever levied on our country.  
If we are looking at "politics" from the sense of economic leadership, then the free market West has not come out overly well.  
We could do a basic comparison of Sweden to Cuba - similar populations - and see that Cuba fared the health issues of COV19 far better, while on the economic front only its tourism sector has been impacted to a significant degree.  It's hardly a "fair" comparison as it ignores so many other things about each nation's characteristics.
China's command economy has almost returned to normal while the USA's free market remains in free fall.  China was able to use its political system to implement social controls which isolated COV19-affected people from infecting the rest of their nation.  Maybe one could suggest China's health policies relating to COV19 are really economic policies, but that idea then taints the rationale for free market economies to adopt similar strategies.


----------



## qldfrog (15 July 2020)

as for vaccine what I and a few others have said :
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...hopes-a-grave-disservice-20200715-p55c3r.html
read my lips: WE WILL NOT HAVE A WORKING VACCINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS
not me telling you that, relatively basic science, the one  which is not asking for a new grant,gov funding;
This is a critical point which seems to be missed in the lockdown concept, so smooth the curve is and remain relevant. But we sadly need to let it propagate unless you expect eradication which is a pipe dream, but obviously many believe it can be achieve, just here because we are special on our island.
This naive attitude even within our governing bodies is killing this country economically.
As i said before, sooner or later even the dumbest in charge will realise and so the need of a political escape valve...
A great announcement of a vaccine by UQ/CSL let's add UNSW and ANU to avoid state conflict;
My 2c invest into CSL until the week after the announcement, you will need the cash by then


----------



## rederob (15 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> as for vaccine what I and a few others have said :
> https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...hopes-a-grave-disservice-20200715-p55c3r.html
> read my lips: WE WILL NOT HAVE A WORKING VACCINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS
> not me telling you that, relatively basic science, the one  which is not asking for a new grant,gov funding;
> ...



Stop guessing!

There are over 100 vaccine candidates.
One or more may be effective enough to be in production next year.
Right now we do not know.
What we do know is that *if* there we get a viable vaccine, then it can be prioritised to the aged and those younger with chronic susceptible heath conditions.


----------



## Junior (15 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You can certainly see the political divide on this forum too. Those that keep banging on about individual rights and sod everyone else wouldn't be voting Labor I wouldn't think but opinions are also determined by personal circumstances. Those that are young and fit may think that the situation is all a hoax to extend political control over the populace, while those in vulnerable groups think restrictions are a good thing because it protects them. Vested interests are pretty powerful.




I think this is a huge factor, which I've noticed talking to friends and clients.  Most people support the position that suits their personal lifestyle right now (or political beliefs).  
Anyone who is relatively anti-social or spends a lot of time at their home:  firmly in favour of lockdown!  
Anyone who lost their job, or works in hospitality:  OPEN EVERYTHING UP!   
Retirees who don't travel:  LOCK IT DOWN.  
Retirees who had a road trip or cruise booked in:  REOPEN!   
My Mum who plays golf:  LOCKDOWN! (except golf courses...)


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## basilio (15 July 2020)

This review of what is happening in the US shows what is happening when this virus is out of control.


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## sptrawler (15 July 2020)

Reporting season starts soon, so at least then we will see the economic fallout to business. 
From personal observations of family, friends and aquintances, all are working and all except for the one who owns a travel agency, seem to be doing o.k.
That is in Perth and country W.A, it may be worse over East, as it depends a lot more on the service and tourism industries.


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## rederob (15 July 2020)

Junior said:


> My Mum who plays golf:  LOCKDOWN! (except golf courses...)



She has a friend:

And Trump proves that social distancing is easy when you are playing around.


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## rederob (15 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Reporting season starts soon, so at least then we will see the economic fallout to business.
> From personal observations of family, friends and aquintances, all are working and all except for the one who owns a travel agency, seem to be doing o.k.
> That is in Perth and country W.A, it may be worse over East, as it depends a lot more on the service and tourism industries.



Queensland tourism doing really well right now, except for people limits on major attractions.
State likely to be out of debt soon reaping trillions of dollars from cashed up Mexicans trying to lie their way over the border.  
I thought there was a money making opportunity in supplying brown paper bags, but in Hinze sight it was not a good idea.


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## over9k (15 July 2020)

After today's results & market, I'm cautiously optimistic that this "lock victoria out and whack-a-mole" approach might just work.

As for how long it'll take victoria to reopen is another question. By september is looking doubtful.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 July 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm cautiously optimistic that this "lock victoria out and whack-a-mole" approach might just work.
> 
> As for how long it'll take victoria to reopen is another question. By september is looking doubtful.




NT has just blocked people from Sydney traveling to their state.

Also; I found a credible article from an energy industry body, that I posted on the electric car thread. May help with your stock picks. Might want to listen to the KPMG analysts rather than the crazy fantasy narrative.


----------



## Sdajii (15 July 2020)

rederob said:


> There are over 100 vaccine candidates.
> One or more may be effective enough to be in production next year.
> Right now we do not know.
> What we do know is that *if* there we get a viable vaccine, then it can be prioritised to the aged and those younger with chronic susceptible heath conditions.




It wouldn't matter if there were millions of prototype vaccines being trialed. It's either conceptually possible or it isn't. The human immune system is what it is, and no number of vaccine prototype trials will change that. It's overwhelmingly most likely that we will never have a functional vaccine for this virus.

I think you'll find that it's not just a little over 100 prototypes being tested, it's far, far more. I've followed a few of them. They seem to be a mixture of 'The government has demanded that our department try to do something, we have to at least look like we're trying, and hey, we're getting a tonne of funding so let's go' and 'If we pretend we have a hope of finding a vaccine the government is going to throw a tonne of money at us, so for Pete's sake, throw a proposal together ASAP so we can get on that gravy train, and we'll write up reports as promising as possible along the way to milk it for as long as we can' and 'Look at how wonderful our medical industry is, our country will probably be first produce the vaccine, we are the best in the world, all eyes on us to admire us (and we hope you forget this down the track when nothing comes of it, which is a fair bet, because people do have very short memories)' - two countries in particular come to mind on this one, and one of them likely believes it's own bovine faeces, with medical departments clearly not.

Keep in mind that there's a heap of money being thrown around. The money is given by governments. The governments are run by people with no medical training or knowledge. Anyone who says "A vaccine is a pipe dream" will get no money. Anyone who says "Uh... yep! Yessirree!!! I'm highly confident my team can produce a vaccine! Yes, sir!" is going to have a much higher chance.

I don't claim to be a virologist and I'm certainly not a doctor or anything, but the head of the WHO literally has less relevant tertiary education on this topic than I do!

I have studied microbiology and genetics. I don't claim to be an expert, but I know a reasonable amount. When I heard they were taking a course of action based on the expectation of a vaccine coming 'soon' I thought I was in the twilight zone, it just doesn't make sense. The more I researched, the more insane a course of action I see it is, but, the more it makes sense for the reasons above ($$$ talks and the people dishing it out don't know what it's doing and the $$$ are incentive for people who do know what they're talking about to pretend a vaccine is likely). There are plenty of virologists saying exactly what I am; a vaccine is extremely unlikely.

There's a lot of talk about recovered patients only having antibodies for around 6 weeks. If that's true, it takes the chances of a vaccine being possible from tiny to negligible. If this is the case, we'll see governments backed into a corner having to find ways to save face. Either they'll just openly have to admit they were wrong, or they'll use ineffective vaccines to save face.

Comically, one of the countries testing multiple vaccines and touting itself as being a world leader, etc etc, also boasts about having had no local transmission of the virus for a long time, making it funny to inject locals with prototypes and have them wander around in an environment they claim is free of the virus. I suppose when none of them get it they can claim success, the vaccine works. That honestly wouldn't surprise me and wouldn't be an unusual claim from that government.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> There's a lot of talk about recovered patients only having antibodies for around 6 weeks.



If that's the case and this is going to be circulating effectively forever then it would seem to be a definite negative for business.

Higher health costs so almost certainly higher taxes and it's hard to see anyone escaping that.

Probably higher rates of staff absent from work due to illness and a "trigger happy" response to anyone showing even a hint of symptoms. 

Both are costs from a business perspective. Smaller costs than a lockdown obviously, but costs nonetheless.


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If that's the case and this is going to be circulating effectively forever then it would seem to be a definite negative for business.
> 
> Higher health costs so almost certainly higher taxes and it's hard to see anyone escaping that.
> 
> ...




If it's the case, and it may well be, the disease will probably mutate and become milder (it's already very mild/asymptomatic for most people) and those highly susceptible to it will be removed from the population (not something I'm advocating, just a statement of inevitable reality, all we can do is delay it a little, and it's something which has happened many times with other diseases, a topic very interesting for anyone curious enough to do some reading on it, a topic I studied as part of my genetics major and take a look at from time to time). It will probably continue to knock out a few old and sickly people just as the flu does.

In time, it'll just be dealt with the way we deal with the flu. People generally don't want to get too close to someone with the flu, some don't really care.

The whole panic is completely overblown even if this is the scenario we're facing. However you look at it, if this is the nature of the bug, we inevitably need to accept that people are going to repeatedly get exposed to it.

It's possible, and something I'd love to see, that it will bring about a medical revolution in virus treatment (as opposed to prevention). We currently have a very very limited ability to treat viruses other than supportive care while the immune system does the job. I don't believe a particularly effective vaccine is at all possible for this virus (such a thing depends on the ability to teach the human immune system being able to do something it probably just can't do, just like the world's best teacher couldn't teach me to fly or run a mile in 20 seconds, no matter how many billions of dollars in how many countries went into training however many teachers because my body is only capable of a certain range of things, just as my immune system is, no matter what antigens you show it, unless we want to genetically engineer humans to have enhanced immune systems, but we don't have that technology yet anyway). But, I have no doubt that it is possible to develop technology which will cure diseases using many different methods. Whether these technologies are just beyond our current reach and we'll see them developed imminently or if they're still decades or centuries away I have no idea. It is absolutely possible (even if far beyond our current ability, these things can exist) to develop complex molecules which will destroy viruses or inhibit their ability to replicate (similar to the way antibiotics work). Basically, if our existing immune systems can clear a virus from our bodies, it is obviously possible for us to not only synthetically replicate what our immune system does, but to create a tremendously enhanced version. Alternatively, and far, far more challenging and definitely a very long way outside our current technological reach (probably not within our lifetimes, but who knows...) we could genetically modify humans to have intelligently engineered immune systems. Difficult as it is, it's certainly technically possible to make us completely and utterly immune to any pathogen, and have extreme resistance to poisons. Once the technology is good enough to do this easily and reliably I'm sure people will go for it, but it may be centuries before it happens. I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of medical breakthrough to treat viruses in the next few years though, and that's definitely what I'd like to see being worked on.


----------



## rederob (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It wouldn't matter if there were millions of prototype vaccines being trialed. It's either conceptually possible or it isn't. The human immune system is what it is, and no number of vaccine prototype trials will change that. It's overwhelmingly most likely that we will never have a functional vaccine for this virus.



You continue to post a lot of "guesses."
Try to post on what you know.
For example, you said "In time, it'll just be dealt with the way we deal with the flu."  There are no reputable medical scientists who make this claim now, for the basic reason that the flu does not cause a level of sepsis that shuts down organs leading to death in the manner COV19 does.  As COV19 continues to mutate it might become less severe and maybe then that claim will not be far off the mark.


----------



## Knobby22 (16 July 2020)

*Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data*
Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

We already know the figure are corrupted, now the corruption will be absolute.
The death rate is already not correct as many people are not counted of dying from covid if they have a pre-existing condition or if they die at home. I predict the death rate will now reduce to about 100. In reality it is likely to be at least 2000.
Also the virus spread will officially be greatly reduced.

Can you fool most of the people most of the time? We shall see.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> *Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data*
> Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html
> 
> ...




First lesson of the dystopia.

Control the information and you control the populace.

He's learned from China well.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> First lesson of the dystopia.
> 
> Control the information and you control the populace.
> 
> He's learned from China well.



Democracy is not a good environment in which to overcome a pandemic. 

On the other hand having the Orange Clown in charge in Washington is not a good omen for an adequate pandemic response even a totalitarian one. 

gg


----------



## jbocker (16 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Can you fool most of the people most of the time? We shall see.



Are they saying the US Centre of Disease Control is a failure? And that the wonders of Washington will resolve the failures (in numbers).
I see Donald has adopted Masking lately. Maybe more comprehensively that first thought.

You CAN fool most of the fools all the time.


----------



## jbocker (16 July 2020)

rederob said:


> And Trump proves that social distancing is easy when you are playing around.



Bill Clinton would not agree.


----------



## jbocker (16 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Queensland tourism doing really well right now, except for people limits on major attractions.
> State likely to be out of debt soon reaping trillions of dollars from cashed up Mexicans trying to lie their way over the border.



I am really surprised that they could manage to squeeze in the Vic AFL teams and their admin. It IS a very smart move on cashing in on the Vic Virus issues, and using it to further adopting a real football code. (sorry was that an elephant in the room?)


----------



## rederob (16 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> Bill Clinton would not agree.



Off course, although Bill teed up another moniker when his balls were caught in a bad lie.


----------



## sptrawler (16 July 2020)

The W.A Government is taking the opportunity to try and stimulate population growth in the NW, I hope it works and encourages more to live where they work, rather than FIFO. It works better for family life, the community and building a stronger local economic model, so companies can develop industries.
With the talk of the solar/wind, hydrogen projects being built in the N.W, it is imperative that a local workforce is available, to capitalise on the opportunity IMO.
It would be terrible if we have to go back to the 457 model, as we did in the mining construction boom, because we couldn't source Australian labour.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/affordable-regional-land-prices-in-wa/12458690


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

rederob said:


> You continue to post a lot of "guesses."
> Try to post on what you know.
> For example, you said "In time, it'll just be dealt with the way we deal with the flu."  There are no reputable medical scientists who make this claim now, for the basic reason that the flu does not cause a level of sepsis that shuts down organs leading to death in the manner COV19 does.  As COV19 continues to mutate it might become less severe and maybe then that claim will not be far off the mark.




It's funny how we have a thread discussing the future and you'll whinge in this way when you don't like what someone says but you're all for it when someone does the exact same thing but you agree with it.

By all means say you disagree, that's fine, have your own say, that's okay, but it stupid to tell someone else they shouldn't, which I haven't ever done.

If you prefer (I thought this obviously went without saying, but hey, maybe you need it spelled out explicitly), according to what I know about virology based on my studies in microbiology and genetics and the personal research I've done out of interest, it seems clear that an effective vaccine is extremely unlikely (and there are countless 'recognised experts' saying that anyway) and that like it or not, until there's a cure, which is almost certainly not coming within the next 5-10 years as it would be a completely revolutionary technology which currently does not exist at all, in the not too distant future we'll be dealing with this much as we deal with the flu now, because there's really no alternative other than indefinite shutdown of the world (which would not work because whichever state decided not to shut down would take over the states which were shut down).

Is that acceptable to you?

Obviously if we're having a discussion about the future there will be opinion and guesses involved! If members here are not supposed to have personal input, what is the point of anyone bothering to learn anything? We can just watch CNN or Fox and dutifully believe what they tell us without question and then parrot it to each other.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's funny how we have a thread discussing the future and you'll whinge in this way when you don't like what someone says but you're all for it when someone does the exact same thing but you agree with it.
> 
> By all means say you disagree, that's fine, have your own say, that's okay, but it stupid to tell someone else they shouldn't, which I haven't ever done.
> 
> ...




So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?



My doctor says NO. 

That's good enough for me.

gg


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My doctor says NO.
> 
> That's good enough for me.
> 
> gg



It's called an immune system.

Those compromised as such, take evasive action.


----------



## IFocus (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Comically, one of the countries testing multiple vaccines and touting itself as being a world leader, etc etc, also boasts about having had no local transmission of the virus for a long time, *making it funny to inject locals with prototypes and have them wander around in an environment they claim is free of the virus*. I suppose when none of them get it they can claim success, the vaccine works. That honestly wouldn't surprise me and wouldn't be an unusual claim from that government.




Suggest you do some serious reading on how a vaccine is developed, testing on humans through most stages isn't against live viruses.........but then you would know that?


----------



## Knobby22 (16 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Comically, one of the countries testing multiple vaccines and touting itself as being a world leader, etc etc, also boasts about having had no local transmission of the virus for a long time, making it funny to inject locals with prototypes and have them wander around in an environment they claim is free of the virus. I suppose when none of them get it they can claim success, the vaccine works. That honestly wouldn't surprise me and wouldn't be an unusual claim from that government.




Just a reminder how it works Sdajii

Stage 1 is testing on a few healthy young people different doses to assess toxicity and sizing dosage.
-If the vaccine passes.
Stage  2 is testing on a larger group of people, some whom may be old or have other health issues to see if there are any side effects or other problems.
-If the vaccine passes
Stage 3 is testing on a very large number of people in an environment where the virus is present, some with the vaccine, some with a placebo. Of the ones who catch the disease, how many caught it despite the vaccine and how many caught it without the vaccine. This indicates how effective it is.


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?




We already have treatments. This question has an analogue answer, not a digital one.

At one end of the spectrum we have the most basic of supportive care; letting the patient rest in bed while we bring them food, keep them warm, etc. At the other end of the spectrum we have a magic cure pill which completely disables the virus and eliminates it from the body almost instantly.

I've already posted lengthily about my thoughts on hypothetical treatments. As for current treatments, surely you haven't been living under a rock and you've heard at least some of what's going on. Hydroxychloroquine was causing widespread excitement until Trump said he thought it was worth investigating, then suddenly everyone said it was a terrible and deadly new drug despite having been in widespread use for many conditions for the best part of a hundred years, then a while later they got excited again. Ventilators are a treatment.

At this stage we're probably closer to the basic supportive care end of the spectrum than the magic cure pill end. We're obviously moving in the magic pill direction, however slowly. Maybe we'll make a quantum leap soon, maybe we won't. It's probably more likely that we won't, but we'll continue moving in that direction, and whether it's next week or next millennium, we'll make that quantum leap.


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Suggest you do some serious reading on how a vaccine is developed, testing on humans through most stages isn't against live viruses.........but then you would know that?




Obviously. The point is that there's virtually no challenge in creating and testing a 'vaccine' to show that it's safe. That's all we can hope to achieve in these tests. I can literally come up with something in the kitchen right now which you can inject into people safely, and if I want to call it a vaccine it will pass stage 1 clinical testing with flying colours.

Most of these things being tested are barely more than that. Throw some antigens in and it's literally all they're doing. These tests are not even attempting to demonstrate efficacy, which makes the public excitement and official hype absurd.


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Just a reminder how it works Sdajii
> 
> Stage 1 is testing on a few healthy young people different doses to assess toxicity and sizing dosage.
> -If the vaccine passes.
> ...




See my post above.


----------



## Knobby22 (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Obviously. The point is that there's virtually no challenge in creating and testing a 'vaccine' to show that it's safe. That's all we can hope to achieve in these tests. I can literally come up with something in the kitchen right now which you can inject into people safely, and if I want to call it a vaccine it will pass stage 1 clinical testing with flying colours.
> 
> Most of these things being tested are barely more than that. Throw some antigens in and it's literally all they're doing. These tests are not even attempting to demonstrate efficacy, which makes the public excitement and official hype absurd.




The good ones, like Australia's were first tested on animals though. I agree some (most?) of them are pretty rushed and dodgy. Frankly, I think we are the big hope.


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The good ones, like Australia's were first tested on animals though. I agree some (most?) of them are pretty rushed and dodgy. Frankly, I think we are the big hope.




The point is, there's absolutely nothing at all to give any indication or hope that any of them will work.

I'd be on board for rushed and dodgy if this virus was in the league of real pandemics like bubonic plague or smallpox. If it was actually able to affect most people (which it isn't) or kill a reasonable percentage of previously healthy people it does affect (which it doesn't), and a functional vaccine was reasonably likely to be possible to create (which it isn't) I'd see the urgency and validity in rushing through a vaccine.

Testing on animals is just a safety protocol for the initial human guinea pigs. It doesn't make the vaccine any more likely to work. If this actually was a virus worth being scared of and I thought there was a reasonable hope of a functional vaccine being created, I'd probably put myself up as a volunteer. Neither is the case so you can keep your untested vaccines away from me and preferably any worthwhile human being.


----------



## rederob (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's funny how we have a thread discussing the future and you'll whinge in this way when you don't like what someone says but you're all for it when someone does the exact same thing but you agree with it.



I said you are just guessing.
Your opinions are not based on reality.
Vaccines exist for many "diseases."
HIV is treatable and may not require a vaccine.
Medicine continues to make advances.
COV19 is preventable with sound strategies.
The economic implications to date are visible across the globe.
The questions we should be asking is why our government is ignoring some of the best practices from overseas.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 July 2020)

Just to get back on topic. I never realised there were so many doctors on here. If I had I would have had my medicare card ready.

Cryptos will be gone by this time next year. Unusual, unknown, contrarian events occur during and following pandemics.

People are flocking in to crypto and forget that governments need to take some money out of the system having poured so much in recently.


Get rid of Gold                No
Get rid of the US Dollar.   No
Get rid of Crypto.            Yes
So, you heard it here first, one economic consequence of the Covid-19 Pandemic will be a squeeze on crypto.

gg


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

rederob said:


> I said you are just guessing.
> Your opinions are not based on reality.




What a stupid statement.



> Vaccines exist for many "diseases."




Indeed. For some it's possible to create vaccines. For others it's not. 

You say my opinions are not based on reality. Here are some indisputable facts:
1) It's very, very rare for a vaccine to be developed in less than 5 years. The fastest ever, in all of history, was about 4 years.

2) No one has ever, ever, created a vaccine for any corona virus. No type of corona virus at all. There are many different corona viruses.

3) I was born in the 1970s, long after they started trying to create vaccines for corona viruses. They are still trying to this day. It has never been done. One notable corona virus is SARS. It has been the subject of intense study and attempts at vaccine development. All attempts have failed. These attempts have been ongoing for 17 years, since the SARS outbreak. SARS attracted a huge amount of international attention and was one of the most significant virus outbreaks in modern times, hence it was had among the most funding and research.

4) SARS and SARS-COV-2 (the virus which cases the COVID-19 disease) are extremely similar. Producing a vaccine for SARS-COV-2 (AKA COVID-19 AKA Wuhan coronavirus AKA Chinavirus) is a very similar task to producing one for SARS, which has not been possible after 17 years of intensive international attempts. These attempts were not carried out long ago with less advanced medical technology, they failed and continue to fail with current day technology.

5) None of the above is my own personal opinion or speculation, it is all fact on record, easily verifiable through mainstream sources.




> HIV is treatable and may not require a vaccine.




Are you able to tie your own shoelaces and go to the toilet alone yet?

A vaccine for HIV is almost certainly never going to be possible without artificial genetic alteration of humans (something which isn't going to be happening within a relevant timeframe). Sure, one day we'll have a magic bullet cure for HIV, I think at some point in the future it will happen. Probably decades, maybe longer away. That's not exactly relevant to this discussion.


----------



## Sdajii (16 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just to get back on topic. I never realised there were so many doctors on here. If I had I would have had my medicare card ready.
> 
> Cryptos will be gone by this time next year. Unusual, unknown, contrarian events occur during and following pandemics.




Do you see the irony here? You mock anyone making statements about genetics, virology or medicine, regardless of how well-based they may be, on the basis that the people making them are not medical doctors (I'm a qualified biologist by the way, so hey, does that make me qualified to discuss things while others are not? Obviously not).

You then go on to make a completely speculative and absolutely extreme statement about cryptocurrency! Are you a time traveller? If one needs to be a doctor to discuss the virus, what formal qualifications do you have to make the absolute statement that cryptos will be gone within 12 months?

A splendid display of hypocrisy, blatant as could be.


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just to get back on topic. I never realised there were so many doctors on here. If I had I would have had my medicare card ready.
> 
> Cryptos will be gone by this time next year. Unusual, unknown, contrarian events occur during and following pandemics.
> 
> ...



I'm still trying to figure the whole crypto scene out, but here's where I am at at the moment....

If crypto is gone by this time next year I am going to assume the position and lubricate myself, because I know what will come next.

Gold and silver will be some comfort however.

It could be true, a crypto apocalypse. But equally, Bitcoin could go to $100,000 in very short order, according to stock to flow theory.

Risk vs reward with seem to be rather attractive.

Disclaimer: I hold a tonne of gold and silver but do not hold any cryptocurrencies at all at the moment.


----------



## rederob (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> What a stupid statement.



Try to keep your personal bile out of this.
Irrespective of your points, everything I said earlier is true.
There is an economic imperative for a COV19 vaccine that has driven research to new highs.
This has not been the case previously.
China is already at stage 3 trials.

On topic, should a vaccine be available next year and I had the opportunity to prioritise its use, it would be an immediate requirement for all international travel.  That would open up travel/tourism/hospitality which are some of the hardest hit sectors of economies and would negate the need for countries to collaborate on "bubbles."


----------



## over9k (16 July 2020)

The moderna one is due to finish its trial march next year. Even then, it's going to take *months* to vaccinate everyone. 

We're in this for a while yet.


----------



## macca (16 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?




There are lots of Docs using various existing drugs and supplements that have had good results but they are not headline grabbing so they don't get air time.

Run a search on Covid .... Vitamin D, Zinc, Vitamin C and Aspirin lots of positive results that are out there but not in the news.

I have read that like AIDS, people do not die from Covid, they die from the effects of Covid, a bad one is blood clots. 

Now we know many people who take an aspirin a day to thin their blood and prevent clots, why aren't people who get Covid being told to take an aspirin ?

We know that high Vitamin D levels protect from all Upper Respitory Tract infections, cold, flu and bronchitis are all lessened dramatically when people either supplement or get lots of sunshine

Vitamin C is a natural anti inflammatory, people die from the inflammation caused by Covid, some Doctors are giving intra venous Vit C with a 100% recovery rate. The Doc in New York released his paper months ago, what have we heard............zilch

No money in it mate, lets take the cash and look for a vaccine


----------



## macca (16 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> It's called an immune system.
> 
> Those compromised as such, take evasive action.




And start building up your defences now !! before you get the rotten thing


----------



## IFocus (16 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Obviously. The point is that there's virtually no challenge in creating and testing a 'vaccine' to show that it's safe. That's all we can hope to achieve in these tests. I can literally come up with something in the kitchen right now which you can inject into people safely, and if I want to call it a vaccine it will pass stage 1 clinical testing with flying colours.
> 
> Most of these things being tested are barely more than that. Throw some antigens in and it's literally all they're doing. These tests are not even attempting to demonstrate efficacy, which makes the public excitement and official hype absurd.




Basics

The stage 2 testing is looking to see if there is any immune response and what that response is producing at what levels of dose etc.

From this testing can be done as to if this will be of any use against the covid virus.

Heaps of other things are also happening at this stage as well it is nothing like how you are describing it.

Testing against live viruses will be done with a high degree of confidence and to some degree a formality if the previous stages are completed successful.

The process for creating vaccines against viruses is well known what isnt if it can be achieved in a short time line and the efficacy of each successful vaccine.

I suspect vaccines will buy time while treatments will eventually be the answer or a combination of both.


----------



## satanoperca (16 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Try to keep your personal bile out of this.




Wow, do you read what you write, you are a nasty man.



rederob said:


> China is already at stage 3 trials.
> On topic, should a vaccine be available next year and I had the opportunity to prioritise its use, it would be an immediate requirement for all international travel.  That would open up travel/tourism/hospitality which are some of the hardest hit sectors of economies and would negate the need for countries to collaborate on "bubbles."




Trust is a thing earned first and China is lacking that.

As for imposing a person must be injected with a substance to be allowed international travel, good luck with that, you must be living in an alternate universe.

And why stop there, a tracking chip under everyones skin might also help determine why and where clusters occur.


----------



## rederob (16 July 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Trust is a thing earned first and China is lacking that.
> As for imposing a person must be injected with a substance to be allowed international travel, good luck with that, you must be living in an alternate universe.
> And why stop there, a tracking chip under everyones skin might also help determine why and where clusters occur.



Your personal views are not relevant to medical science.
Going back many years, our children were only able to participate in childcare if they were vaccinated.  We were happy to comply.  
People that prefer their children have the ability to kill others by infecting them as it is their right have a warped view acting responsibly.


----------



## satanoperca (16 July 2020)

It is not my personal view, you are correct on that matter, it is the views of our communities that matter.

Last I checked, we live in a democratic society, people have choices. And where does it stop, cannot catch a train without showing you have been vaccinated? Cannot shop at the supermarket?

You sound like an academic, sounds good on paper, but in real life, just doesn't work. Aka the current situation.


----------



## qldfrog (16 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> Disclaimer: I hold a tonne of gold and silver but do not hold any cryptocurrencies at all at the moment.



If you own a tonne of gold, can i be your friend?


----------



## rederob (16 July 2020)

satanoperca said:


> It is not my personal view, you are correct on that matter, it is the views of our communities that matter.



Medical science is seeking a remedy to a global pandemic.  Your bias is irrelevant to which nations, if any, are successful in producing a vaccine.


satanoperca said:


> Last I checked, we live in a democratic society, people have choices. And where does it stop, cannot catch a train without showing you have been vaccinated? Cannot shop at the supermarket?



I stated a fact about vaccinations.  If that is what is decided by any government as an essential element of receiving a service then it will carry the force of law.
There are other threads here that deal with personal freedoms so try your opinions there.


----------



## satanoperca (16 July 2020)

You can use some comparisons with share trading, bare with me:

Trading (individual): what is your risk profile, acceptable drawdown, portfolio heat, available capital, expected return on capital

Australian Society: what is the community risk profile in relation to deaths and freedoms, acceptable deaths, given this virus is not going away. How much will it cost short and long term to irradicate (wishful thinking).
How much capital does Australia have or our we leverage to the hill? What happens if we risk everything, go in debt 100% of GDP, no vaccine is found, faced with the same problem?

*What is the govnuts exit strategy, their stop loss?*


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> If you own a tonne of gold, can i be your friend?



Errr... there was a liberal dose of hyperbole there


----------



## wabullfrog (16 July 2020)

Tankers loaded with Australian LNG have been put into go slow mode.

https://www.watoday.com.au/business...-as-buyers-delay-cargoes-20200716-p55cou.html


----------



## qldfrog (17 July 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> Tankers loaded with Australian LNG have been put into go slow mode.
> 
> https://www.watoday.com.au/business...-as-buyers-delay-cargoes-20200716-p55cou.html



Nice find
A bit upset that the Qld frog is beaten in size or market optimism by a Westerly member....


----------



## sptrawler (17 July 2020)

This morning, I was having a chat to a local coffee shop owner, and asked how things were going, he replied that he and the other coffee shops were having the best year yet so keep the borders shut.
He said this time of year most of the locals either go overseas or over East, so it is unusually busy, with most people home.
This is a W.A perspective, not sure the same applies elsewhere.


----------



## Sdajii (17 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> This morning, I was having a chat to a local coffee shop owner, and asked how things were going, he replied that he and the other coffee shops were having the best year yet so keep the borders shut.
> He said this time of year most of the locals either go overseas or over East, so it is unusually busy, with most people home.
> This is a W.A perspective, not sure the same applies elsewhere.




You definitely wouldn't get the same sentiment from coffee shop owners here in Melbourne!

Of course some businesses are going well. Anything to do with the pet industry (something I'm involved with, fortunately) is absolutely booming, for example. Apparently divorce lawyers and psychologists who deal with grief are doing well too. Whoever deals with cleaning up the bodies of suicide cases is probably seeing an increase in business as well.


----------



## Knobby22 (17 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You definitely wouldn't get the same sentiment from coffee shop owners here in Melbourne!




NSW Boarder Police stopping  Victorians, really funny.


----------



## IFocus (17 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> This morning, I was having a chat to a local coffee shop owner, and asked how things were going, he replied that he and the other coffee shops were having the best year yet so keep the borders shut.
> He said this time of year most of the locals either go overseas or over East, so it is unusually busy, with most people home.
> This is a W.A perspective, not sure the same applies elsewhere.




I keep asking everyone how they are going haven't actually had a bad story yet real estate had the best June in years, small businesses are still getting turn over, everyone is still employed, cars sales are up, FIFO guys are still chugging along  I think our area is in a bubble SP.


----------



## ducati916 (18 July 2020)

Probably worth a read:

https://stream.org/why-you-shouldnt...x51hS16ZGpyaK8EB2s3EyShyeU7CfqvH3XwqZFA6Rgb-U

jog on
duc


----------



## qldfrog (18 July 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Probably worth a read:
> 
> https://stream.org/why-you-shouldnt...x51hS16ZGpyaK8EB2s3EyShyeU7CfqvH3XwqZFA6Rgb-U
> 
> ...



Be careful Mr LeDuc, you will soon realised that even hinting at stats or figures , you know, facts... categorises you as a far right male chauvinist white suprematist.
Thanks for the info.
I was trying to find these figures of actual deaths in the US yesterday..


----------



## rederob (18 July 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Probably worth a read:
> 
> https://stream.org/why-you-shouldnt...x51hS16ZGpyaK8EB2s3EyShyeU7CfqvH3XwqZFA6Rgb-U
> 
> ...



I doubt it!
Very poor analysis.
Here's the latest data from the CDC:


There is a potential lag of up to 8 weeks for the mortality data to be finally reported, so all data from the May 2020 peak is still in revision.
Briggs' is totally inept. He concludes:
_*"These numbers suggest we are inching closer to herd immunity, the point at which spreading the disease to new people becomes much harder. The continued fall in both official COVID-19 and all-cause deaths, also suggest we should be less worried, not more.
Surely the press and government officials are bright enough to grasp these same statistics. So, why do they insist that the crisis is growing worse? I’ll let you answer that for yourself."*_​First, the USA would need around 200M positive cases to get to herd immunity at a best guess, which is more than 50 times the present number.  Next, despite him recognising the data has up to an 8 week lag, he proposes it as indicative of the current situation.  However, he wrote his article when both the positivity rate and the gross positivity numbers were increasing. 
Briggs is one of the many examples of false experts that idealogues trot out in the hope the public turn to them for "news."


----------



## ducati916 (18 July 2020)

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob (18 July 2020)

*EXAM: Economics 101 *

On the basis of this chart, students are required to determine:

which of the following countries are *most *likely to open their economies?
of the countries *least *likely, what time frame would you propose for each before an opening-up should be reasonably considered?
if the data provided a reasonable basis for their answers?


----------



## SirRumpole (18 July 2020)

OK, I'll bite. 

1. Germany, Italy , France , UK
2. Can't say, their cases are still rising, you would need to see a consistent reduction first.


----------



## rederob (18 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> OK, I'll bite.
> 
> 1. Germany, Italy , France , UK
> 2. Can't say, their cases are still rising, you would need to see a consistent reduction first.



Thanks @SirRumpole.
Some things are rather obvious: neither the USA nor Brazil appear candidates for an open economy using "deaths" as the criterion.
However, the third question is, imho, the key.  I regard the trend in "positive cases" as more important.  My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity.  I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is _de rigueur_.


----------



## spooly74 (18 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Thanks @SirRumpole.
> Some things are rather obvious: neither the USA nor Brazil appear candidates for an open economy using "deaths" as the criterion.
> However, the third question is, imho, the key.  I regard the trend in "positive cases" as more important.  My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity.  I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is _de rigueur_.



Tend to agree with that.
The daily case numbers serve no purpose, now.
I'd prefer a weekly update with: Number of additional tests, Number admitted to ICU & number of deaths.
Government can work behind the scenes on outbreaks and alerts when/where necessary.


----------



## over9k (18 July 2020)

rederob said:


> My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity.  I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is _de rigueur_.



We have data supporting this, things like shopping centres etc were/are still wastelands even after the U.S reopened. Businesses have told people to continue working from home even when the office has been allowed to reopen. People are voluntarily/deliberately doing anything by distance which can be. They are only doing something face to face if they have no other choice.

Another natural suppressor is the simple cost(s) to business & the individual of being off work sick.

I was calling both of these things over a month ago & most on this forum laughed at or dismissed me.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

A small remark:
If i got the virus last month and hardly cough like 75% of infected, and get tested tomorrow, i will return a positive.
The positive cases number will jump, good for catastrophic headlines but otherwise,is the situation really worse?
So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends
As i said elsewhere, Europe population has restarted.. different from govs, which make it harder to impose even basic common sense prevention . 
The biggest scam but still based on a serious decease that we should at least minimise.


----------



## over9k (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> A small remark:
> If i got the virus last month and hardly cough like 75% of infected, and get tested tomorrow, i will return a positive.
> The positive cases number will jump, good for catastrophic headlines but otherwise,is the situation really worse?
> So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
> ...



We aren't concerned with whether the situation is worse frog, we're concerned with how whatever's going on effects markets.

I've quite deliberately refrained from posting my personal opinion(s) about the outbreak itself.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

over9k said:


> We aren't concerned with whether the situation is worse frog, we're concerned with how whatever's going on effects markets.
> 
> I've quite deliberately refrained from posting my personal opinion(s) about the outbreak itself.



Please read again my post, i mean read..even with my foreign mistakes
Just to highlight
*So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends*
Pretty clear i though
So the whole post is about looking not at numbers of infections but media coverage to determine and judge the economics impacts and way to profit from it.
100pc what this very thread is supposed to be, no?


----------



## over9k (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Please read again my post, i mean read..even with my foreign mistakes
> Just to highlight
> *So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
> Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends*
> ...




You said: 



qldfrog said:


> A small remark:
> If i got the virus last month and hardly cough like 75% of infected, and get tested tomorrow, i will return a positive.
> The positive cases number will jump, good for catastrophic headlines but otherwise,is the situation really worse?




I'm saying it doesn't matter if the situation is actually worse or not and we're not here to discuss it either way. We're only here to discuss how to make money from whatever happens.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 July 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm saying it doesn't matter if the situation is actually worse or not and we're not here to discuss it either way. We're only here to discuss how to make money from whatever happens.




So you wouldn't mind non monetary comments on the virus going here ?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...sars-cov-2-outbreak-discussion.35174/page-106


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

I would just like a bit of balance.
Yes it can be bloody nasty, maiming or killing, but we are looking at economics
Having a 20y becoming unable to work is different from a 70y old being in a wheelchair.
A 40y old dying does not have the same economic weight than an 80y old dying, and worse for the PC brigade:
A 60y old stem researcher is probably much more important for the economy than an obese diabetic 30y old on welfare.
Harsh but do we want to look at economics or not?
And if we do, we need to look at actual death per age, per socio professional categories and also the impacts of lockdowns separately from actual virus damages.
Where are the figures,why?
Out of this, we should be able to determine real effects and economic opportunities but that means stopping focusing on the number of detected cases.i personally eould not be surprised to see a final infection rate in the 50 pc in a couple of years here and elsewhere
And as time will tell,it will not be be end of the world as we know it

And then


----------



## ducati916 (19 July 2020)

Data:








jog on
duc


----------



## moXJO (19 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Thanks @SirRumpole.
> Some things are rather obvious: neither the USA nor Brazil appear candidates for an open economy using "deaths" as the criterion.
> However, the third question is, imho, the key.  I regard the trend in "positive cases" as more important.  My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity.  I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is _de rigueur_.



No one would be a candidate if you went on infection spikes and community spread. 
And its not a true "open economy" until you can get overseas travellers.
Victoria shows how quickly we go from zero to lock downs.

We can mitigate as much as we like, but its learn to live with it till (if)vaccinations arrive. At minimum better treatment. 
And at some point economics will outweigh deaths and fear mongers.


----------



## rederob (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Believe me it does, which is why europe is over, as is US btw if you look at the death curve,
> and Brazil and Australia getting worse
> Brazil in winter is not all copa cabana...



Your claims are again not supported by data, showing you are again making false claims.
*Here's the USA in the middle of summer:*



And here's India in summer, as well:



And here's Brazil in the middle of winter, with rates not declining:


----------



## rederob (19 July 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm saying it doesn't matter if the situation is actually worse or not and we're not here to discuss it either way. We're only here to discuss how to make money from whatever happens.



True in part.
I distinguish between investing and trading.  And trading varies as well, depending on typical duration.
Right now you can invest in gold equities with a degree of surety that was not there over a year ago.
You can also look at some of our big miners who are doing relatively well, in part due to COV19 effects in the Americas affecting production.
From an internal perspective, many of our tech and related stocks are doing well, as are those businesses which have leveraged platforms allowing purchases/transactions from home.
Many of the trends affecting local markets are relatively clear.
Not so with international markets, and Oz companies with varying exposure to them.
Right now it remains unclear how the US attempt to open its economy will be affecting us from day to day.  While I see it as a disaster waiting to happen, those controlling US money supply can hang us out to dry for a good while longer.


----------



## waterbottle (19 July 2020)

I think the positivity rate is the most important leading figure... @ducati, what is your source for those numbers?


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

stats, not immunology is the rule maker:
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
and that is just an easy search which can be easily correlated to actual weather pattern in Europe ..but probably a coincidence I am sure 
Note that is not the article I initially linked as that article was giving actual temp range and moisture level affecting transmission
of course if someone cough on you for 1h in a dry and hot weather, that will probably not be enough to spare you..
And are you surprised by the resurgence in Melbourne Sydney now? I am not just surprised Tasmania was not affected earlier more than it was, and SA is still clear it seems..will come


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Look at location of cluster in italy france and spain, how do you explain it
> And as for actual research:
> Maximum contamination is achieved is cold ( but not frozen ) humid environment
> Aka winter..but not in qld
> ...



As my epidemiologist friend says, correlation not causation.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> stats, not immunology is the rule maker:
> https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
> and that is just an easy search which can be easily correlated to actual weather pattern in Europe ..but probably a coincidence I am sure
> Note that is not the article I initially linked as that article was giving actual temp range and moisture level affecting transmission
> ...



I'd suggest you take up darts, mate.

gg


----------



## moXJO (19 July 2020)

waterbottle said:


> I think the positivity rate is the most important leading figure... @ducati, what is your source for those numbers?



I think hospitalisation rates are the most important.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd suggest you take up darts, mate.
> 
> gg



and I suggest to keep safe in NQ GG, do not travel south until september.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As my epidemiologist friend says, correlation not causation.
> 
> gg



link to study added if you are really interested in knowing, you should, we are actually much safer here in QLD, and not because of the clown in our state gov.


----------



## rederob (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> stats, not immunology is the rule maker:
> https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
> and that is just an easy search which can be easily correlated to actual weather pattern in Europe ..but probably a coincidence I am sure
> Note that is not the article I initially linked as that article was giving actual temp range and moisture level affecting transmission
> ...



Your link has not shown that that the reproduction rate is different when temperatures increase.
To arrive at that conclusion you need to actually use data from warmer regions as well, and they have not!
If @qldfrog's idea had merit, it would need to explain the trends in India and the USA, let alone why this could happen in Iran:



As for spread in Vic and NSW, it has already been tracked back genetically to people involved in securing overseas arrivals.  It has zero to do with "temperature."


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> link to study added if you are really interested in knowing, you should, we are actually much safer here in QLD, and not because of the clown in our state gov.



Thanks mate.

I don't follow health links unfortunately. I ask my doctor if I'm worried. 

The main message in this Coronavirus thingo should be : 

*DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD*

One of the deficiencies of democracy, unlike in totalitarian states like China, is that one cannot take muppets out behind a wall and shoot them if e.g they don't perform as guards at Quarantine hotels nor indeed if said muppets have broken quarantine. 

After the first one or two dozen were shot everybody would social distance and stick to quarantine and not whinge and .....

*Do what they are told.
*
gg


----------



## over9k (19 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks mate.
> 
> I don't follow health links unfortunately. I ask my doctor if I'm worried.
> 
> ...



We all know where that leads though.

Democracy is the worst form of government we have, except all the others.


But back to economic consequences of the virus...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2020)

over9k said:


> We all know where that leads though.
> 
> Democracy is the worst form of government we have, except all the others.
> 
> ...



Like the good ole USA which will be economically stuffed and lose it's first mover advantage.

As they say there, after quoting some bloody Amendment or other.

Wheeeeee Hawwwww.

gg


----------



## over9k (19 July 2020)

Let's not argue - this isn't the thread for it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 July 2020)

There is a myth about, that this Pandemic and its economic consequences last for just a few more months and everything will be honky doorie in 2021. 

I believe this not to be so. 

I hope I am wrong.

gg


----------



## macca (19 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There is a myth about, that this Pandemic and its economic consequences last for just a few more months and everything will be honky doorie in 2021.
> 
> I believe this not to be so.
> 
> ...




I believe the world has changed and I really do not like what I am thinking for future generations here in Oz

It will be a long time before it is as good as it has been for the past 20 years

With kids and grandkids I wish it wasn't so


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Like the good ole USA which will be economically stuffed and lose it's first mover advantage.
> 
> As they say there, after quoting some bloody Amendment or other.
> 
> ...



Time will tell


----------



## waterbottle (19 July 2020)

moXJO said:


> I think hospitalisation rates are the most important.



Sure, but hospitalizations occur 1 week post infection and are by definition lagging.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2020)

macca said:


> I believe the world has changed and I really do not like what I am thinking for future generations here in Oz
> 
> It will be a long time before it is as good as it has been for the past 20 years
> 
> With kids and grandkids I wish it wasn't so



Teach them exportable trades and languages.give them a chance to get out while for us joining the queue and creaming the system.
You can not fight the feds nor can you the gov in place


----------



## over9k (19 July 2020)

In case anyone's wondering about data lag: 

It takes 2-3 weeks for infections (after date of infection) to show up in the data, and another 2ish weeks for deaths to. 

So roughly speaking, if it's going to kill you, it takes about a month to do it.


----------



## sptrawler (19 July 2020)

Japan to pay companies to relocate manufacturing out of China. This should be interesting.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/japan-to-pay-firms-to-leave-china-as-part-of-corona-stimulus/


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 July 2020)

Towns with highest JobKeeper numbers: Tourist towns feature prominently. Most capital city CBDs have about 30% of their businesses registered.

Exmouth and Shark Bay (60%), Margaret River (51 per cent) and Denmark (45 per cent) in Western Australia; Byron Bay (57%), Tweed Heads (48 per cent), Shellharbour (45 per cent), Coffs Harbour (44 per cent) and Kiama (43 per cent) in NSW; the Surf Coast in Victoria (44 per cent); Sunshine Coast (44%); Break-o-Day (52%) in NE Tassie.

https://taylorfry.com.au/articles/where-are-the-businesses-most-reliant-on-jobkeeper


----------



## IFocus (23 July 2020)

Exmouth apparently was packed for the school holidays I image Shark Bay similar certainly the grey nomads have being going north in great numbers.

If people are spending could be another matter


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 July 2020)

IFocus said:


> Exmouth apparently was packed for the school holidays I image Shark Bay similar certainly the grey nomads have being going north in great numbers.
> 
> If people are spending could be another matter



survey was up till end of June...and probably reflects even earlier days/ weeks. Leads and lags of data collection.

what were those Albany Tourist Centre visit numbers, June 19 - Jun 20; up 250%? People are itching to get out (while they can)


----------



## sptrawler (23 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> survey was up till end of June...and probably reflects even earlier days/ weeks. Leads and lags of data collection.
> 
> what were those Albany Tourist Centre visit numbers, June 19 - Jun 20; up 250%? People are itching to get out (while they can)



My sister and BIL went north with the van two weeks ago, couldn't get into Onslow at all.


----------



## over9k (28 July 2020)

Here's an answer to the thread title that isn't a wall of bull**** text: 

Gold at an all time high.


----------



## wayneL (28 July 2020)

A little digression from the current conversation


----------



## rederob (29 July 2020)

Queens


sptrawler said:


> If Clive Palmer wins the high court case against the W.A hard border closure, I wonder how Queensland, S.A and Tasmania will keep theirs intact?
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...y-to-win-wa-border-challenge-pm-says/12501872



My view is that in Queensland at least the *Direction from the Chief Health Officer* is flawed.  I think *reasonable restrictions* can be place on entry, but where an activity is not commercial in nature then citizens cannot be denied entry.
It will be interesting to see how the dice roll.


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2020)

Well I would never have thought this would happen 6 months ago, call center coming home to Australia, wonders never cease.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...e-jobs-back-to-australia-20200729-p55gjp.html
From the article:
_Westpac is moving 1000 jobs that are being carried out in India and the Philippines back to Australia after complications in overseas operations led to slow customer service and cost the lender valuable business during the pandemic.

The country's second-largest bank pointed to a surge in customers needing assistance and delays in its home loan processing and call centres as it announced it would bring the jobs back to Australia_.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well I would never have thought this would happen 6 months ago, call center coming home to Australia, wonders never cease.



Call center offshoring, long disliked by consumers, was a classic example of senior managers failing to comprehend reality.

Consumers never liked the idea. Not because they're foreigners as such, but because the whole thing tends to end up as a painful experience for the consumer who then looks to take their business elsewhere and the loss of that costs the company far more than they'll ever save in cheap wages.


----------



## jbocker (30 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well I would never have thought this would happen 6 months ago, call center coming home to Australia, wonders never cease.
> 
> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...e-jobs-back-to-australia-20200729-p55gjp.html
> From the article:
> ...



Glad to see this. I have recently had to call a few 'help' lines and the wait-times and call quality, have been horrendous. Except for new business, you usually get a quick response there. I have mentioned before that a top 20 ASX (non bank) company is returning there support lines back to Australia, and I think that was also the case for another Top 20 company (as what happens with one usually is followed by others).


----------



## SirRumpole (30 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> Glad to see this. I have recently had to call a few 'help' lines and the wait-times and call quality, have been horrendous. Except for new business, you usually get a quick response there. I have mentioned before that a top 20 ASX (non bank) company is returning there support lines back to Australia, and I think that was also the case for another Top 20 company (as what happens with one usually is followed by others).




Telstra should follow suit.

I've had to call them a few times, and although the staff are helpful there was a lot of shoving around between one department and another with some of the calls getting lost in the process.

That's really a matter of procedure and training though, it could go just as bad in Australia.

It depends on the quality and knowledge of the staff and how keen they are to help. Although it sounds a bit biased to say it, maybe staff in Australia would be happier to help their "local" community rather than someone in another country.


----------



## jbocker (30 July 2020)

To add to my previous post I think the value of 'call centres' and the like has been given a much greater importance since COVID-19. Consumers are valuing the quality of the contact far more now having experienced the lack of physical presence.


----------



## SirRumpole (30 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> To add to my previous post I think the value of 'call centres' and the like has been given a much greater importance since COVID-19. Consumers are valuing the quality of the contact far more now having experienced the lack of physical presence.




The other side to that is that a lot of the call centres are also closed due to covid !


----------



## jbocker (30 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Telstra should follow suit.
> 
> I've had to call them a few times, and although the staff are helpful there was a lot of shoving around between one department and another with some of the calls getting lost in the process.
> 
> ...



I swapped phone companies earlier this year largely triggered by the annoyance at quality of support. Which was a blessing as I went to a Aussie run provider (Moose Mobile) and saved about 40-50%(from memory) with better service. I am in the consideration of moving my ISP too and I think it will be Aussie Broadband (which also has totally Aussie support)


----------



## sptrawler (30 July 2020)

Another unintended consequence is rearing its head, fruit picking season is almost here and no backpackers=no fruit picked.
Farmers are starting to get nervous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...e-feared-due-to-coronavirus-controls/12504802
From the article:
*Border closures shut out farm workers*
_State border closures have also impeded fruit pickers and shearers, with New South Wales refusing to permit seasonal workers entering that state from Victoria.

"There are lots of people in New South Wales that need jobs so I don't feel there is a labour shortage in NSW at all, if people want to come in and want to do that seasonal work, they've got to be subjected to that 14-day isolation period," Premier Gladys Berejiklian said last week.

Mr Littleproud said while he wanted to see unemployed Australians get back to work, short-term farm jobs are not always practical.

"I really do want to see Australians that are on unemployed benefits go and work — I just understand more than anyone, living in regional Queensland, that doesn't happen," Mr Littleproud said.

"Practically, people aren't going to travel."
_
*What's Plan B?*
_It comes as the National Farmers Federation launched a campaign to help match farmers with workers.

"We're urging farmers to take the time to develop 'Plan B' for their farm's labour needs, based on an assumption that they will have limited to no access to a foreign workforce," NFF chief executive Tony Mahar said.

"We know the part time and seasonal nature of some farm work doesn't suit everyone.

"However. we urge jobseekers to keep an open mind about what's on offer."

Mr Mahar said in some cases, workers on farms could earn up to $1,000 per week_.


----------



## wabullfrog (30 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Another unintended consequence is rearing its head, fruit picking season is almost here and no backpackers=no fruit picked.
> Farmers are starting to get nervous.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...e-feared-due-to-coronavirus-controls/12504802
> From the article:
> ...




The same issue will play out with the cropping season later in the year. Farmers often use either backpackers or experienced international farmhands.

The Grain Handlers themselves will also be affected but to a lesser degree as many of their harvest staff come from school leavers or Uni students. Should Covid really get loose then it will get very messy for the Grain Handlers.

Oh yeah & anyone who does not hold high level status with QANTAS would be able to tell stories of incredibly long waits on hold & poorly trained call centre staff if you eventually get through.


----------



## sptrawler (30 July 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> The same issue will play out with the cropping season later in the year. Farmers often use either backpackers or experienced international farmhands.
> 
> The Grain Handlers themselves will also be affected but to a lesser degree as many of their harvest staff come from school leavers or Uni students. Should Covid really get loose then it will get very messy for the Grain Handlers.
> 
> Oh yeah & anyone who does not hold high level status with QANTAS would be able to tell stories of incredibly long waits on hold & poorly trained call centre staff if you eventually get through.



The government may have to incorporate it in the job seeker, job keeper programe somehow, there is a lot of money being thrown around in the name of 'work' ATM.


----------



## wabullfrog (30 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The government may have to incorporate it in the job seeker, job keeper programe somehow, there is a lot of money being thrown around in the name of 'work' ATM.




With Jobseeker I guess there are relocation, no worse off & other clauses within the legislation that may apply.


----------



## qldfrog (30 July 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> Should Covid really get loose then it will get very messy for the Grain Handlers.



Economically, the covid has hardly any direct effect on fruitpickers etc,they are nor sick nor unable to work:
 the misguided  directives and isolation measures have that direct effect, may we all hope that will bring a bit of neurones back into our politicians.qld excepted as obviously too far gone


----------



## Joe Blow (30 July 2020)

OK folks, all of the posts related to a vaccine and other non-economic related COVID-19 issues have been moved to the Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion thread.

Please continue that discussion over there. Thanks.


----------



## qldfrog (31 July 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-30/covid-obsessed-supermarket-owner-burns-down-business/12509130
Economic and mental effect of covid scare tactic propaganda.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 July 2020)

The conflict between health and economics during Covid-19 is not a dichotomy. 

As recent events in Queensland with alleged criminal behaviour being implicated in introducing Coronavirus again to Queensland, commerce both licit and illicit will continue during these times.

All governments of whatever political stripe continue as best they can with Health authorities to implement measures both to contain the virus and facilitate mining, industry and commerce. 

It is an extremely difficult if not existential time for small business.

Crime such as drug running, theft, violence and hard and soft-collar malpractice will continue. 

To mitigate the economic downside it is important we all harden up and *DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD* by health authorities.

gg


----------



## Sdajii (31 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The conflict between health and economics during Covid-19 is not a dichotomy.
> 
> As recent events in Queensland with alleged criminal behaviour being implicated in introducing Coronavirus again to Queensland, commerce both licit and illicit will continue during these times.
> 
> ...




Like you say, licit and illicit activity will continue. This is inevitable. A lot of people are trying to bring about the impossible, or acting as though the impossible is possible and people will all follow all the rules. The rules are set out under the assumption that all people will follow them, but clearly this is flawed thinking. 

The reality is that we will see people breaking rules and at some stage the system will wake up and deal with it, but I'm not sure how soon that will happen.

Doing what is told by the authorities is the exact thing causing the economic downside. If the whole world took no serious measures to control the virus, it wouldn't have caused significant economic issues and it would now almost be over. Sweden being the case in point. Sweden's death rate is now negligible, and the only reason it has any economic issues is that the rest of the world has gone crazy and no country's economy is an island, and many are scared of Sweden, but I expect we'll see this change over the next few months as they see Sweden having better figures than other countries, which at some stage will have to do something similar.

Looking at Australia, we are seeing the numbers exceed the initial wave. When the virus first arrived and caught the country off guard with people not being prepared, it obviously started to spread. Then after being mostly (but importantly, not entirely) eliminated, and sitting quiet for a few months, it is now spreading faster than it did when it caught us off guard, even with all the public 'education', awareness, measures, shutting down all those businesses, having people work from home, etc. It's now weeks since people in Melbourne were allowed to even visit a friend or relative at all, and right now we have the virus escalating faster than ever before. This is the actual reality, which the system hasn't accepted as reality yet.

We need to accept that humans are human and will do what humans do. The virus will spread in places like Melbourne and Sydney and won't go away until a Sweden model is used. There will be outbreaks in other areas. Importantly, this is mostly going to affect people such as 90 year olds in nursing homes. This has various social implications etc, but since we're keeping this on topic and only looking at economics, knocking out a small number of elderly people in nursing homes has a trivial effect on the economy.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Like you say, licit and illicit activity will continue. This is inevitable. A lot of people are trying to bring about the impossible, or acting as though the impossible is possible and people will all follow all the rules. The rules are set out under the assumption that all people will follow them, but clearly this is flawed thinking.
> 
> The reality is that we will see people breaking rules and at some stage the system will wake up and deal with it, but I'm not sure how soon that will happen.
> 
> ...



Thanks @Sdajii 

I prefer to look forward rather than back. We are now in the operational phase of health and economic control during Covid, so mate, *JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD *and encourage others to do the same. 

I have my own ideas on Sweden but it is pointless discussing it. It's a bit like some poor bastard in a trench in Flanders in 1917 whose leg has just been blown off, saying, I don't think the Kaiser should have started the war. 

We need to unite behind our present leaders in Australia, ( let's not discuss the Orange Fool in the White House ) , change course as necessary under our medical and economic advisers, and choose our leaders in a democratic manner. Support of the vulnerable and a just social system with adequate penalties for wrongdoers rich or poor will get the economy back on track.

gg


----------



## qldfrog (31 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Like you say, licit and illicit activity will continue. This is inevitable. A lot of people are trying to bring about the impossible, or acting as though the impossible is possible and people will all follow all the rules. The rules are set out under the assumption that all people will follow them, but clearly this is flawed thinking.
> 
> The reality is that we will see people breaking rules and at some stage the system will wake up and deal with it, but I'm not sure how soon that will happen.
> 
> ...



Potentially reinjecting money in the economy away from economically negative aged care artificial life extension.
Different debate but related in a way with euthanasia, right to die decently etc as discussed on other thread.
Our village is booming as never, a short drive from the city, masses are going for a drive, sipping coffees and walking around
Absolutely amazing..far away from the WFH so either a new perspective on life for many or just milking the system
I drove then took the train at what used to be peak time to the cbd on monday
Less than a person per carriage
People who have to work in the cbd are driving there.
Think societal cost, not mentioning co2 for the believers.
I bet you many are thinking: why did i bother doing the 8 to 5 race before, no one cares, makes no difference
I work less, pay less taxes, drive comfortably to the city, not pushed around...
That is not going away


----------



## Sdajii (31 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Sdajii
> 
> I prefer to look forward rather than back. We are now in the operational phase of health and economic control during Covid, so mate, *JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD *and encourage others to do the same.




I see your frustration spilling over here. Shouting at me, as though it is somehow relevant. The reality is that your words are meaningless. I'm looking forward, I'm saying that reality is what it is and will be what it will be. Even if your shouting at me actually made me change (which it won't, and I haven't been doing anything risky anyway, which you seem confused about), there are tens of millions of people in this country and they are not going to listen to your shouting. Every time we see a story on the news about someone visiting a family member or going to work or sneaking across the border, we have people getting angry about it, and acting like it is somehow surprising, and demanding that it never happen again, with a mindset of 'if everyone stays at home and doesn't go out, we'll be okay'. The reality is that it won't happen like that, looking forward, there will be people who break the rules. I'm not talking about what I want to happen or what I'll personally do, I'm talking about what definitely will happen in the future, which is in conflict with what you're shouting about, which is why you're frustrated.



> I have my own ideas on Sweden but it is pointless discussing it. It's a bit like some poor bastard in a trench in Flanders in 1917 whose leg has just been blown off, saying, I don't think the Kaiser should have started the war.




The relevance is that it's a proven model and we can adopt is now, which in a few months would bring an end to the issue. I don't think that's going to happen now or particularly soon, but at some stage we inevitably have to do something like it. I expect that an ineffective vaccine will be used as an excuse to allow a Sweden model to be used, while we are told to pretend it's something else.



> We need to unite behind our present leaders in Australia, ( let's not discuss the Orange Fool in the White House ) , change course as necessary under our medical and economic advisers, and choose our leaders in a democratic manner. Support of the vulnerable and a just social system with adequate penalties for wrongdoers rich or poor will get the economy back on track.




It's peculiar that you demand people unite behind the leaders you like and denounce the once you don't (despite having been democratically elected!) and also say that we follow future democratically elected leaders (but not currently democratically elected leaders if you don't like them), as though this might actually happen. How do you reconcile telling people to faithfully follow democratically elected leaders while simultaneously telling them not to? Obviously this is not a logical attitude.


----------



## rederob (31 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If the whole world took no serious measures to control the virus, it wouldn't have caused significant economic issues and it would now almost be over.



That's not even a guess:  It is wholly contradicted by real world evidence of spread, including what is abundantly clear in the USA which *has *been trying to mitigate spread.


Sdajii said:


> Sweden being the case in point. Sweden's death rate is now negligible, and the only reason it has any economic issues is that the rest of the world has gone crazy and no country's economy is an island, and many are scared of Sweden, but I expect we'll see this change over the next few months as they see Sweden having better figures than other countries, which at some stage will have to do something similar.



Sweden has got measures in place, and I believe continues to have them in place, to mitigate spread.  Borders to Sweden were closed by other countries, so it had also been effectively like how we are presently treating Victoria.
Sweden's social structure and sense of social responsibility is nothing like Australia's, so suggesting we can just do what they do would never work.  Our cultural similarities to the USA and UK suggest we would fail massively.
I will later post some Queensland data and show how well our strategy of containment has worked vis a vis Sweden.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I see your frustration spilling over here. Shouting at me, as though it is somehow relevant. The reality is that your words are meaningless. I'm looking forward, I'm saying that reality is what it is and will be what it will be. Even if your shouting at me actually made me change (which it won't, and I haven't been doing anything risky anyway, which you seem confused about), there are tens of millions of people in this country and they are not going to listen to your shouting. Every time we see a story on the news about someone visiting a family member or going to work or sneaking across the border, we have people getting angry about it, and acting like it is somehow surprising, and demanding that it never happen again, with a mindset of 'if everyone stays at home and doesn't go out, we'll be okay'. The reality is that it won't happen like that, looking forward, there will be people who break the rules. I'm not talking about what I want to happen or what I'll personally do, I'm talking about what definitely will happen in the future, which is in conflict with what you're shouting about, which is why you're frustrated.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Listen @Sdajii . ( whispers sooto voce )

Read it again. You poor deluded bastard. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 July 2020)

economic implications thread, chasps !!

*Edit


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> economic implications thread, chasps !!
> 
> *Edit



Hope springs eternal that the "chasps" will toe the line. 

My expectation is that economically we will recover and move on. Many opportunities will arise once the volatility of the present unstable situation settles for all. 

@Joe Blow  should have an angry boys and girls thread wherein off-topic kerfuffles can carry on out of the hearing of nanny whip, even for good boys and girls who occasionally show frustration with muppets. 

gg


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## SirRumpole (31 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My expectation is that economically we will recover and move on. Many opportunities will arise once the volatility of the present unstable situation settles for all.




What doesn't kill you makes you stronger (economically speaking that is).

Positive thought for the day.


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## sptrawler (31 July 2020)

It isn't all bad news, first time we have had negative cpi in a long time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-inflation-turns-negative-2020-07-28
From the article:
SYDNEY--Australia's annual inflation turned negative for the first time in 22 years in the pandemic-hit second quarter as government childcare subsidies and lower oil prices fueled the biggest quarterly fall on record.

The country's consumer price index fell by 1.9% over the three months to June 30, according to the official Australian Bureau of Statistics. Annual inflation fell to minus 0.3% from 2.2% three months earlier.

The ABS said the government's move to make childcare free from April 6 as part of its response to the economic hit from the coronavirus was the biggest driver of Australia's first annual deflationary print since March 1998.
The largest sector drag on prices came from an 11% fall in household contents and services, which included a 95% drop in childcare costs due to the subsidies.
Fuel prices declined 19% in the quarter, while falling education costs also weighed.
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said the overall CPI would have risen 0.1% in the quarter without those three factors.


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## Dona Ferentes (31 July 2020)

*Economic implications .... at my level*
When the reality was awning on people that things might be serious and we might have a pandemic on our hands, there was slow attribution. But at the same time, late 2019 and early 2020, markets were looking toppy and there was a fair amount of commentary around that the good times may not last. Having run a 'growth strategy' and probably over-allocated to equities (in a portfolio sense), I bought some exposure to gold and started trimming holdings, with the aim to have at least $100k in cash (enough to live on for AT LEAST a year) as I took the view it would be best to sit this one out. By late Feb I had made the last share disposal and then as March unfolded, sat and watched and sat and watched. Bought bugger all. Kept powder dry.

Then the discounted capital risings came around and I have selectively put money into 5, of which 4 have delivered upside and one is treading water. Now sitting on a bit over $50K cash. We're coming into reporting season and it is pretty obvious that dividends are going to be lower, especially after last year's bounteous harvest.

So, where does this leave me? Got to pay myself (pension) but, at the same time, the spending is curtailed (no travel, or indulgent splash-outs), so things are netting out, roughly. My fear is the impact is going to be prolonged, that business is not going to revert to 'as usual'. Ah, the Wall of Worry. Meantime, it is very much _interesting times_ with all that implies.... tech is changing our lives as much as a virus. Winners and losers.

But i am worried how much longer this will go on for.

Stay safe, people. Diversification is the only free lunch.


----------



## Sdajii (31 July 2020)

rederob said:


> That's not even a guess:  It is wholly contradicted by real world evidence of spread, including what is abundantly clear in the USA which *has *been trying to mitigate spread.




It's amazing that you continue to deny blatant reality as speculation or guess when it doesn't suit your narrative, but come out with bizarre speculation and expect it to be taken as fact without any need to backing it up. The USA clearly has all sort of its own problems going on which are completely unrelated to the virus.



> Sweden has got measures in place, and I believe continues to have them in place, to mitigate spread.  Borders to Sweden were closed by other countries, so it had also been effectively like how we are presently treating Victoria.




Indeed, sensible measures were used to flatten the curve, but they didn't go overboard. They've been criticised for being reckless in not attempting to control it, yet here you say they did control it. Which is it? At least stay consistent. They did approximately (close enough to) what I was suggesting from the start would be the best way to deal with it, which is by all accounts a very low level of mitigation effort and the maintenance of personal freedom compared to other countries, and their situation has now stabilised with a negligible number of ongoing deaths, unlike a country such as Australia with far more draconian measures and currently an escalating virus problem. Sweden has already had the virus run to a completion, Australia is still effectively in the early stages with a big problem in Victoria, the beginning of a similar situation in NSW, and potentially more outbreaks elsewhere.

Since Sweden was allowing the virus to do its thing, the border closures are not relevant to the situation within Sweden, only potentially other countries bordering it.



> Sweden's social structure and sense of social responsibility is nothing like Australia's, so suggesting we can just do what they do would never work.  Our cultural similarities to the USA and UK suggest we would fail massively.




This doesn't make sense. They literally had more liberty and allowed the virus to spread more than in Australia at an earlier stage, which is exactly what did happen! Your argument is clearly in contradiction to the reality we can plainly see, that is, that the virus did indeed spread earlier and faster in Sweden. Your claim that Swedes have a greater social awareness or sense of responsibility etc may be correct, but it is irrelevant since the point is that they tangibly did less to control it and it did spread because they didn't try to prevent it with extreme measures and that reasonable level of management has produced a result where they now have a negligible death rate and can carry on without the need for draconian measures, unlike the situation in Australia where such measures are in place and will continuously be in place until we do adopt a similar approach to what Sweden did, which inevitably will happen, whether by open admission of it being necessary/inevitable (extremely unlikely because whoever decides it will be committing political suicide) or through the use of an ineffective vaccine (which is my guess of what will happen).


----------



## qldfrog (31 July 2020)

Let's be positive the current wave will  spread, and there are better ways to treat covid than 4m ago.
Once we will have been thru the worst, we will reached Sweden status and can move on.
the gesticulations of our various premiers will not change that course and we will be ready for the fake vaccines :december/january, Australia will restart.
we should give a medal to our ethnic crooks coming into Qld from Victoria.
they ultimately saved lives by speeding the process


----------



## Sdajii (31 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> we should give a medal to our ethnic crooks coming into Qld from Victoria.
> they ultimately saved lives by speeding the process




An irony which most people will never see or understand.


----------



## rederob (31 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's amazing that you continue to deny blatant reality as speculation or guess when it doesn't suit your narrative, but come out with bizarre speculation and expect it to be taken as fact without any need to backing it up. The USA clearly has all sort of its own problems going on which are completely unrelated to the virus.



The USA is a prime example of what you claim should be done, yet is turning into an economic basket case.  To suggest that 4.5million positive COV19 cases has no impact on their economy flies in the face of every credible commentator noting events as they unfold.  

As the rest of you post continues to be off topic, why don't you move it to where it belongs.


----------



## basilio (31 July 2020)

Is deflation a "good thing" ? 
Obviously the last quarter was affected by a few big items - fuel, child care costs.
But historically deflation equals depression.


----------



## Sdajii (31 July 2020)

rederob said:


> The USA is a prime example of what you claim should be done, yet is turning into an economic basket case.  To suggest that 4.5million positive COV19 cases has no impact on their economy flies in the face of every credible commentator noting events as they unfold.
> 
> As the rest of you post continues to be off topic, why don't you move it to where it belongs.




The USA is a complete basketcase. I have never endorsed the situation there and have said since before patient zero contracted the virus that the USA was a complete mess.

The rest of the post is perfectly on topic, you are clearly only making this post as a feeble excuse to avoid addressing the reality which conflicts with your views.


----------



## rederob (31 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The USA is a complete basketcase. I have never endorsed the situation there and have said since before patient zero contracted the virus that the USA was a complete mess.



The USA is not a special case.
The first case was China.
The very first economic casualty was 6 months ago and fully contradicts your claims, along with most European nations - and these are nations that actually tried mitigation to preserve their economies as best as possible, without luck.
This is one of so many of your unsubstantiated claims.
As to Sweden, here's some facts.


----------



## Sdajii (31 July 2020)

rederob said:


> The USA is not a special case.
> The first case was China.
> The very first economic casualty was 6 months ago and fully contradicts your claims, along with most European nations - and these are nations that actually tried mitigation to preserve their economies as best as possible, without luck.
> This is one of so many of your unsubstantiated claims.
> As to Sweden, here's some facts.




To say the USA is not a special case is just silly. If you can't see it has a quite unique situation going on affecting its economy and overall situation you're probably not able to see anything.

I'm not sure what your point is when you raise China. China is a totalitarian regime not at all comparable to any western country. China's reported figures can not be trusted. China remains in lockdown and does not have the same endpoint Sweden has achieved.

Your link to 'theconversation.com', a clearly biased source, doesn't really seem to have anything of relevance. It would make sense to raise any specific points yourself rather than just put up link to a biased source with a vague "here's (sic) some facts" statement.


----------



## rederob (1 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> To say the USA is not a special case is just silly. If you can't see it has a quite unique situation going on affecting its economy and overall situation you're probably not able to see anything.
> 
> I'm not sure what your point is when you raise China. China is a totalitarian regime not at all comparable to any western country. China's reported figures can not be trusted. China remains in lockdown and does not have the same endpoint Sweden has achieved.
> 
> Your link to 'theconversation.com', a clearly biased source, doesn't really seem to have anything of relevance. It would make sense to raise any specific points yourself rather than just put up link to a biased source with a vague "here's (sic) some facts" statement.



You seem incapable of understanding what you initially claimed, which I have shown defies realities, and continue to offer nothing other than your opinion.  The link to *The  Converation *actually used some data to make its point.  Is there a reason you cannot?


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## basilio (1 August 2020)

*Bank Stability through the COVID 19 crisis
*
I came across this analysis of US Bank exposure to CLO's Collaterilized Loan Obligations.  

CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.

Long story short the Banks  exposure to CLO's rivals/exceeds the exposures they had to the CDC's which ended up undermining the US banking system in 2008 and creating that financial catastrophe. 

The analysis from someone who works in the business points out COVID is creating simultaneous stresses across most of the economy and the risk of another financial collapse sparked by  mass failure of these loans is on the table.

*The Looming Bank Collapse*
The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/


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## basilio (4 August 2020)

Australia needs to address how we will harvest our fruit and veges with the collapse of backpackers and migrant fruit pickers due to COVID 19.

*Without seasonal workers, Australia may face a hungry summer*
Michael Rose
With not enough workers to pick the upcoming harvest, Australia faces potential food shortages, and its farmers face economic devastation
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...al-workers-australia-may-face-a-hungry-summer


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## SirRumpole (4 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Australia needs to address how we will harvest our fruit and veges with the collapse of backpackers and migrant fruit pickers due to COVID 19.
> 
> *Without seasonal workers, Australia may face a hungry summer*
> Michael Rose
> ...




Not enough workers ?

The unemployment rate is supposedly about 11%.

Those receiving JobSeeker should be lining up outside farms.


----------



## basilio (4 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Not enough workers ?
> 
> The unemployment rate is supposedly about 11%.
> 
> Those receiving JobSeeker should be lining up outside farms.




That's not the view of the people in agriculture. Picking fruit is seasonal and moves from place to place. It makes no sense for unemployed people hundreds of klms away to uproot their lives and move to a an area for 6 weeks work.

If you check out the story it is trying to support the Pacific Islanders who have come to Australia for the picking season.


----------



## wayneL (4 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Not enough workers ?
> 
> The unemployment rate is supposedly about 11%.
> 
> Those receiving JobSeeker should be lining up outside farms.



That sort of work is beneath the dignity of the unemployed </tongueincheek>


----------



## SirRumpole (4 August 2020)

basilio said:


> That's not the view of the people in agriculture. Picking fruit is seasonal and moves from place to place. It makes no sense for unemployed people hundreds of klms away to uproot their lives and move to a an area for 6 weeks work.
> 
> If you check out the story it is trying to support the Pacific Islanders who have come to Australia for the picking season.




There would be unemployed in regional areas as well who don't have to travel hundreds of kmls.


----------



## satanoperca (4 August 2020)

Economic IMPACT from an inept govnuts (VIC), 

Property PRICES to get SMASHED, resulting in the biggest feedback loop of economic repression in the last 60 years.


----------



## Sdajii (4 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Australia needs to address how we will harvest our fruit and veges with the collapse of backpackers and migrant fruit pickers due to COVID 19.
> 
> *Without seasonal workers, Australia may face a hungry summer*
> Michael Rose
> ...




I haven't done farm work since I was a young fella over 20 years ago,  for many years I'd have thought there's no way I'd ever do anything like it again, but I'm still young and fit enough to comfortably do this work (I'm 41 and pretty fit, in good shape for my age, active, not overweight, etc), and given the current situation, if it would mean I could travel again I'd be happy to spend a few weeks here and a few weeks there travelling around picking fruit etc. I'd honestly prefer to be just cruising around travelling and exploring as per my more recently lifestyle, but in this situation I'd happily do farm work if it meant I could hit the road and enjoy being outside. I'm not sure how many people would have similar sentiments to my own, but surely it would be a non trivial percentage of the literal millions of people out of work due to the restrictions. I'd even quarantine for two weeks, since I'm currently locked down and unable to do anything anyway.

Strangely, whenever there's a shortage of workers for harvests etc, the farm owners cause a fuss about a worker shortage, yet still almost always refuse to pay more than slave wages. Being a big traveller myself I cross paths with many other travellers and hear no end of stories about farm workers being exploited to absurd extents, by farm owners complaining of labour shortage. If there's a worker shortage, people can be paid well (which shouldn't be an issue if there's a food shortage and produce prices increase) and this seems like an obvious benefit to both unemployment and food security.

I'm not sure at which point common sense will start poking its head up in this situation, but this seems to be one thing which may encourage it.


----------



## macca (4 August 2020)

If people will fly to work in the mines in the outback in 45c heat simply to get the big bucks then maybe the farmers should consider paying higher wages.

As I understand it, you get paid per measure (bucket, bushel, bag etc) so just increase the payment and all good


----------



## basilio (4 August 2020)

Normally there isn't a problem with getting enough people to pick crops in Australia.
Trouble is farmers  and the various Labour Hire companies have run out of options with the COVID situation. 
Come on down Sjaji !  Looks like you have a real hands on opportunity. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...ckers-after-illegal-worker-crackdown/10871214
https://www.governmentnews.com.au/migrants-trapped-in-slave-like-conditions-at-aussie-farms/
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2016/fruit-picking-investigation/


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## satanoperca (4 August 2020)

macca said:


> If people will fly to work in the mines in the outback in 45c heat simply to get the big bucks then maybe the farmers should consider paying higher wages.
> 
> As I understand it, you get paid per measure (bucket, bushel, bag etc) so just increase the payment and all good




You are trying to compare apples with oranges, ASX listed and not. 

Maybe if Australians would appreciate and value the quality of the produce our farmers provide is a different thing.

For example, I like making gnocchi pasta. I can buy 1kg of potatoes from coles or safeways, 1kg makes a lot of gnocchi, or I can go to the farmers market and buy organic from the farm potatoes for $12kg. For my $12kg purchase I get to know the producer, he/she gives me great advice, plus the quality of the produce is so much better. 
Yes more than double the price, but really is it?
So then I go a little bit further and buy organic flour, free range bacon and free range eggs. All of it costs me 200% more than the base price at the supermarket.

But in reality, it is a small price to pay, the food taste soooooooooo much better with good ingredients and while I might not pass a taste test for the difference and maybe it is a placebo effect, it makes me feel that I am more connected to the fuel I place inside my body.

If more people cared about where their food came from, farmers and farm workers might get paid more.

The last I checked, don't see 2 many farmers driving around in Porches but do see lots of bankers and stock brokers, what do they add to society with the farmers providing them food.


----------



## sptrawler (4 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Not enough workers ?
> 
> The unemployment rate is supposedly about 11%.
> 
> Those receiving JobSeeker should be lining up outside farms.



They couldn't get them to do FIFO cleaning jobs during the mining boom, for $75k a year, I can't see you getting them off their ar$e for $6k over 6 weeks.


----------



## macca (4 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Normally there isn't a problem with getting enough people to pick crops in Australia.
> Trouble is farmers  and the various Labour Hire companies have run out of options with the COVID situation.
> Come on down Sjaji !  Looks like you have a real hands on opportunity.
> 
> ...




I have read articles like this before, quite dreadful really, the case I read about was a group of people from India were carrying fellow Indian people around and doing this work.

On the books they paid them OK but they then charged them fees for locating the work, accomm, transport, food and anything else they could think of.

The poor pickers were getting very little after it was done, exploitation by people from their own race, nasty stuff.


----------



## basilio (4 August 2020)

macca said:


> I have read articles like this before, quite dreadful really, the case I read about was a group of people from India were carrying fellow Indian people around and doing this work.
> 
> On the books they paid them OK but they then charged them fees for locating the work, accomm, transport, food and anything else they could think of.
> 
> The poor pickers were getting very little after it was done, exploitation by people from their own race, nasty stuff.




It's not good at all. From my experience pickers and backpackers rarely saw a  reasonable dollar for their work. Everyone is on  challenging piece rates. Both groups get gouged for  "everything" as is pointed out  in the stories.

Back packers at least realised they were just getting play money and were on a working holiday.  The others were just being exploited.


----------



## Sdajii (4 August 2020)

basilio said:


> It's not good at all. From my experience pickers and backpackers rarely saw a  reasonable dollar for their work. Everyone is on  challenging piece rates. Both groups get gouged for  "everything" as is pointed out  in the stories.
> 
> Back packers at least realised they were just getting play money and were on a working holiday.  The others were just being exploited.




I assume in a genuine worker shortage the situation will be different, but for many years, many farms have refused to give Australian citizens work, because they know they'll get in trouble if they try to scam Australians, and I assume if they try to hire a mix, the foreigners will be less content being scammed if they have workmates who are being treated more fairly.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 August 2020)

basilio said:


> That's not the view of the people in agriculture. Picking fruit is seasonal and moves from place to place. It makes no sense for unemployed people hundreds of klms away to uproot their lives and move to a an area for 6 weeks work.



Reality is some farmers won't employ locals even if they live right next to the farm. Locals need not apply period.

That's been an ongoing problem for quite some time now and suffice to say I won't say what I really think of them because it's not too polite. Let's just say this industry gets an awful lot of handouts every time there's a drought, flood or whatever but seems unwilling to give anything at all back and I sure aren't impressed with that approach.

It's not as though it's a job needing a degree or even a TAFE certificate, it's not something that needs particular artistic, sporting etc talent and it doesn't need someone to have years worth of experience either. No legitimate reason these jobs can't be given to locals.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 August 2020)

macca said:


> On the books they paid them OK but they then charged them fees for locating the work, accomm, transport, food and anything else they could think of.



Accommodation's the big one in Tassie at least. Not sure about how it is in other states.

If you're not needing accommodation then don't bother applying.

That crosses locals off the list straight away unless they can cancel the lease on a rental etc which will never work for a family and even for singles is problematic.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 August 2020)

It seems that the cruise ship industry isn't seeing a quick rebound and they'd be looking at it from a global perspective not simply an Australian one.

They're literally scrapping some of the ships so that's gone permanently or at least for many years until someone's confident enough to build new ones from scratch.

https://www.traveller.com.au/cruise...crapyard-in-turkey-set-to-be-broken-up-h1prh5


----------



## basilio (5 August 2020)

*This is a breakthrough in  cheap, effective widespread COVID testing*

*From sniffer dogs to sewage testing, scientists are finding new ways to detect COVID-19*

..In just a couple of months, the first Australian detection dogs will be fully trained in how to detect the odour of COVID-19.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...tect-covid-19-without-testing-people/12523252


----------



## jbocker (5 August 2020)

basilio said:


> *This is a breakthrough in  cheap, effective widespread COVID testing*
> 
> *From sniffer dogs to sewage testing, scientists are finding new ways to detect COVID-19*
> 
> ...



Why don't we combine and shortcut the two processes and get the dogs to sniff butts?


----------



## macca (5 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> Why don't we combine and shortcut the two processes and get the dogs to sniff butts?




Well, dogs can be trained to sniff diabetic people in need of insulin and they can also tell when/ if their epileptic master is about to have a seizure.

Dogs are very smart


----------



## SirRumpole (5 August 2020)

macca said:


> Well, dogs can be trained to sniff diabetic people in need of insulin and they can also tell when/ if their epileptic master is about to have a seizure.
> 
> Dogs are very smart




They can even sniff out cancer.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190408114304.htm


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 August 2020)

macca said:


> Well, dogs can be trained to sniff diabetic people in need of insulin and they can also tell when/ if their epileptic master is about to have a seizure.



Also commonly used for quarantine against pests etc.

Eg fly to Tasmania and you'll find your bags checked by a dog. They're sniffing for flowers, plants, vegetables, fish etc - anything which could contain pests not found in the island state. 

Only takes a few minutes and they've checked the whole plane load of baggage. 

AFP do similar things in other states although they're more concerned about drugs etc not flowers or fish.


----------



## sptrawler (5 August 2020)

basilio said:


> *This is a breakthrough in  cheap, effective widespread COVID testing*
> 
> *From sniffer dogs to sewage testing, scientists are finding new ways to detect COVID-19*
> 
> ...



They will be finding a lot more than covid-19, by sewage testing especially in a lockdown.


----------



## sptrawler (5 August 2020)

macca said:


> Well, dogs can be trained to sniff diabetic people in need of insulin and they can also tell when/ if their epileptic master is about to have a seizure.
> 
> Dogs are very smart



They are certainly a lot easier to train than children, and I've had my fair share of both.


----------



## macca (5 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> They are certainly a lot easier to train than children, and I've had my fair share of both.




They are a lot cheaper to feed and clothe as well


----------



## wayneL (7 August 2020)

MSM is reporting on the number of Victorians either leaving or planning to leave the state.

it is going to be interesting to measure the economic devastation of the states against each other as this progresses.

it's going pretty good up here in Queensland at the moment but I'm not confident that is going to be a permanent situation, sooner or later there will be a break at out here which will have Komrade Anastasia salivating for a similar dictatorial lockdown.

Meanwhile I am still looking longingly at Sweden.


----------



## Sdajii (7 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> MSM is reporting on the number of Victorians either leaving or planning to leave the state.
> 
> it is going to be interesting to measure the economic devastation of the states against each other as this progresses.
> 
> ...




With a lower population density and warmer climate you probably won't do too badly up there with the virus. Which in itself is neither here nor there, except that as you say, even a small outbreak will have Marxists destroying your lives and economy.

A Sweden style strategy is inevitable, we just have to see how long it takes and what path we take to get there. The politicians won't just openly say "We made a mistake, we overacted, it's really not that bad, let's just get on with life now, sorry". I still think it's likely they'll use an ineffective vaccine as an excuse to do it. One way or another we will eventually have to get on with things. Unless you believe we're going to fully turn into some permanent totalitarian state. Down here in stage 4 Melbourne it's really weird, and amusingly, it's not helping the virus situation anyway. It's very interesting to actually look at the data (rather than just listen to the vague, biased garbage on the news) and see how lockdowns, masks, etc really don't work. The countries with the 'best' figures on the virus are just the ones not testing for it. I was saying at the time that the 'bodies piled up in the street' propaganda videos from Spain etc early this year were obviously staged propaganda which made no sense. The USA is now supposedly far worse than anywhere else has been, but far from 'bodies piled up in the street', most of my friends in the USA literally don't even personally know anyone who has had the virus, let alone experience being surrounded by the dead!

It's difficult to see when people will wake up, but apparently most can sleep through a hurricane while riding a train while it crashes.


----------



## Knobby22 (7 August 2020)

I am looking longingly at NZ. No restrictions at all and no chance of getting the virus and getting really sick. 

They are back to normal. (jealous).


----------



## rederob (7 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> A Sweden style strategy is inevitable....



Completely false.
There are few commonalities between Swedish and Australian cultures so any attempt to replicate it would yield very different results.  Furthermore, we know enough about containment and suppression strategies to avoid Sweden's  exceptionally high death rate.


Sdajii said:


> Down here in stage 4 Melbourne it's really weird, and amusingly, it's not helping the virus situation anyway.



Baseless statement.  Lockdowns are proven effective across the globe.


Sdajii said:


> The countries with the 'best' figures on the virus are just the ones not testing for it.



Again, not just baseless, but there is data showing it to be completely false.  Just look at results for testing in Queensland to show how unsound that comment was.


Sdajii said:


> I was saying at the time that the 'bodies piled up in the street' propaganda videos from Spain etc early this year were obviously staged propaganda which made no sense.



Yet another comment without foundation.  It's actually pretty disgusting imho that people would make such a comment as yours given the evidence from other nations as well, not to mention the mass graves that have also been specially prepared for COVID-19 deaths.


Sdajii said:


> The USA is now supposedly far worse than anywhere else has been, but far from 'bodies piled up in the street', most of my friends in the USA literally don't even personally know anyone who has had the virus, let alone experience being surrounded by the dead!



And we are supposed to think that your experience has meaning?  USA with over 5 million affected citizens and a quarter of all deaths tells a different story.


----------



## Sdajii (7 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Completely false.
> There are few commonalities between Swedish and Australian cultures so any attempt to replicate it would yield very different results.  Furthermore, we know enough about containment and suppression strategies to avoid Sweden's  exceptionally high death rate.
> Baseless statement.  Lockdowns are proven effective across the globe.
> Again, not just baseless, but there is data showing it to be completely false.  Just look at results for testing in Queensland to show how unsound that comment was.
> ...




You're like the posted child who believes the narrative of the media and government without question and doesn't even bother attempting to interpret it or listen to the meaning of their words. I could imagine you wearing a raincoat and holding an umbrella in full sunshine because the one weather report you saw said it was raining, while all others say it's sunny, and it is, in fact, sunny.


----------



## Knobby22 (7 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're like the posted child who believes the narrative of the media and government without question and doesn't even bother attempting to interpret it or listen to the meaning of their words. I could imagine you wearing a raincoat and holding an umbrella in full sunshine because the one weather report you saw said it was raining, while all others say it's sunny, and it is, in fact, sunny.



Oh  come on Sdajii. Didn't you see the refrigerator trucks converted to take bodies? And the death rate is double that reported but I suppose you trust their government.

I have friends in the USA and they are living in fear.

We need to beat this in Melbourne and it's the people not doing their bit an d spreading it that will cause the lockdown to last longer.


----------



## rederob (7 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're like the posted child who believes the narrative of the media and government without question and doesn't even bother attempting to interpret it or listen to the meaning of their words. I could imagine you wearing a raincoat and holding an umbrella in full sunshine because the one weather report you saw said it was raining, while all others say it's sunny, and it is, in fact, sunny.



Unlike you I base my comments on what most people call *facts*.
You have a history here of spouting unfounded opinions and, as I have shown, many are completely false.


----------



## Sdajii (7 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Oh  come on Sdajii. Didn't you see the refrigerator trucks converted to take bodies? And the death rate is double that reported but I suppose you trust their government.
> 
> I have friends in the USA and they are living in fear.




I don't doubt that you have friends in the USA living in fear. Their media is doing everything they possibly can to bring that about. Anyone with half an eyeball has seen that. I have friends in the USA saying things are fine and the story is overblown.

It's funny that you'd respond to 'It was manufactured propaganda' with 'Didn't you see how propagandary the propaganda was? It was really scary!'

The people dying have an average age of death barely below the average life expectancy. Millions of people die everyday around the world on any normal day. With few exceptions, this virus is just killing people who were soon to die anyway. This isn't a real pandemic. We are being told to be scared and take precautions as though this is some Black Death/Spanish Flu type pandemic, where we're literally having many people dying, death all around, sickly people suffering hugely. Other than on the television we're just not seeing it. Talk to people in the USA, the world's worst affected country, in whatever state you like, and you'll find that it's not a place where people are all dropping dead, the people are not scared because they're actually seeing death and morbidity, they're scared because the television tells them to be scared.

The plan was supposed to be to brace ourselves for mass deaths and our measures were simply supposed to lessen the number of people who would be unable to be treated in hospital because the hospitals would be overfull. Surely you can remember this because it was only recent. But the hospitals are not full. Not here, not in the USA, not in Spain, not in China. There is plenty of spare capacity. The story doesn't make sense. It takes mental gymnastics to believe the story, not to see through it.


----------



## Sdajii (7 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Unlike you I base my comments on what most people call *facts*.
> You have a history here of spouting unfounded opinions and, as I have shown, many are completely false.




LOL


----------



## Knobby22 (7 August 2020)

All I can say is check your US sources. You are being sold a pup.


----------



## wabullfrog (7 August 2020)

An early economic comparison between Denmark & Sweden with regards to the 2 different paths they took with lockdowns.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/31/2010068117


----------



## wayneL (7 August 2020)

I have dozens of US colleagues which I speak to on a regular basis, and also but a industry based Facebook group of 8000, 75% of which are American.

There are not More than a handful that have fallen for the fear narrative. The vast majority are, more or less, supporters of the Swedish model.

The liberals and communists on the West coast and the northeast? Now that's a different story.


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2020)

in competition for joke of the year:



rederob said:


> Unlike you I base my comments on what most people call *facts*.
> You have a history here of spouting unfounded opinions and, as I have shown, many are completely false.



ROL
Seriously Rob, do you actually start believing this yourself?


----------



## basilio (7 August 2020)

*Seriously Qfrog Redrob does deal in facts.* Trying to gaslight him or others to the contrary is rubbish.

Sdajii's supremely certain, self opinionated observations  on COVID are so far off reality they are ridiculous. And I suspect there are plenty of other people who share his delusions an happy to spread them. Perhaps you should all get a room together.

This thread was supposed to be about the economic  implications of COVID . Be good if it went back to that  theme rather than a relentless barrage of denial that there is any problem with this virus beyond actually trying to limit its spread.


----------



## rederob (7 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> With few exceptions, this virus is just killing people who were soon to die anyway.



Zero basis for your claim.  


Sdajii said:


> This isn't a real pandemic.



Another false claim.


Sdajii said:


> Talk to people in the USA, the world's worst affected country, in whatever state you like, and you'll find that it's not a place where people are all dropping dead, the people are not scared because they're actually seeing death and morbidity, they're scared because the television tells them to be scared.



Nobody said people are dropping dead all over the place - a straw man claim.  The issue is about a range of other matters repeatedly addressed here that you have zero counter for.


Sdajii said:


> The plan was supposed to be to brace ourselves for mass deaths....



Completely false, again.
*"The aim of these measures is to slow the importation of COVID-19 cases into Australia to enable preparatory measures to continue and to enable a public health response to the initial cases."
"Based on the advice of the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC), the National Cabinet agreed that our core objective now is to slow the outbreak of COVID-19 in Australia by taking additional steps to reduce community transmission. We must ensure our health system can care for the most vulnerable, in particular the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions."*​


Sdajii said:


> But the hospitals are not full.  Not here, not in the USA, not in Spain, not in China.



Wuhan built 3 new hospitals plus transformed other facilities for COVID patients because they did not have capacity.  New York hospitals were in crisis - dozens of Governor Cuomo's media briefings confirm this. Spain, Italy the UK and dozens of nations had, and continue to have their medical resources overrun due to COVID-19. 
You cannot lie your way out of what is happening around the world.


----------



## SirRumpole (7 August 2020)

Same old, same old.

I think we need to agree to disagree. No one is going to change the public policies with rhetoric or demands to be "sovereign citizens". We run our country differently to others , thank <insert name of Deity here>.

Most of the country is doing quite well, and the part that isn't needs some support. I think we have show that covid can be beaten with sufficient precautions. Andrews trusted his people to comply, but a few idiots stuffed that up. It's time for some tougher measures or this thing will get away again.


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Spain, Italy the UK and dozens of nations had, and continue to have their medical resources overrun due to COVID-19.



with *facts *like this, who needs a real world -> @basilio DYOR for at least the 2 first in this list of Rederod *facts *LOL
But agree on let's go back to the economic implications
-of voluntarily sabotaging our economy
or
-saving the world by preventing Victorian from crossing the border if you so want to believe
Who cares, the effects are here you will blame the virus, I will blame the measures
the real facts is our (real) economy is collapsing so what can you do to save your own position (position I mean financial position) especially when not on the PS with garanteed job and income or even super


----------



## rederob (7 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> with *facts *like this, who needs a real world -> @basilio DYOR for at least the 2 first in this list of Rederod *facts *LOL



Why can't you use facts to support your points?  
Queensland and most other States/Territories are doing relatively well in all sectors apart from the effects of international tourism and seasonal interstate travel/tourism/hospitality.  That's because we are not blighted by COVID-19.  So if you are suggesting that protecting our borders has made no difference, then you are part of a rather small club.


----------



## IFocus (7 August 2020)

Really interested how Australia and the US can be like Sweden......anyone?


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Why can't you use facts to support your points?
> Queensland and most other States/Territories are doing relatively well in all sectors apart from the effects of international tourism and seasonal interstate travel/tourism/hospitality.  That's because we are not blighted by COVID-19.  So if you are suggesting that protecting our borders has made no difference, then you are part of a rather small club.



Typical Rederob ,you (not me) state that Italian and Spanish hospitals are overwhelmed , now aka today and when confronted go on a tangent. 
What a piece...


----------



## wayneL (7 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> Really interested how Australia and the US can be like Sweden......anyone?



Why can't we?


----------



## Knobby22 (7 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> Why can't we?



We would have to be a lot more socialist. Also less individualistic in some ways and I suppose more individualistic in others. We would need to trust our politicians more.

Australia is probably a halfway house between Sweden and the US. That's why we are into Nirvana and ABbA ;-)


----------



## satanoperca (7 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> We need to beat this in Melbourne and it's the people not doing their bit an d spreading it that will cause the lockdown to last longer.




While we are it, can we also do our bit for poverty, drug abuse, domestic violence and multi nationals paying taxes. All have an ecomomic impact on Aussies doing their bit. But none of them cause govnuts to close down society and remove our freedoms.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> Why can't we?




Australia arguably was closer to that model in the past but in more recent years we've moved toward a more dog eat dog approach to everything.

If it was 1980 then sure but in 2020 it's a very different society.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

basilio said:


> *Seriously Qfrog Redrob does deal in facts.* Trying to gaslight him or others to the contrary is rubbish.
> 
> Sdajii's supremely certain, self opinionated observations  on COVID are so far off reality they are ridiculous. And I suspect there are plenty of other people who share his delusions an happy to spread them. Perhaps you should all get a room together.
> 
> This thread was supposed to be about the economic  implications of COVID . Be good if it went back to that  theme rather than a relentless barrage of denial that there is any problem with this virus beyond actually trying to limit its spread.




You say it's off topic because you disagree with what I'm saying, but it's not off topic.

The virus itself is not causing significant changes to the economy or anything else, when compared to the impact of the fear campaigns and government-imposed shut downs. If we just calmly treated it like the flu (no harm in encouraging extra hand washing, hygiene measures, etc), we'd have a few more people than usual dying in nursing homes, a few more people than usual in hospitals, and really not that much else. Again, look at Sweden, the mainstream predictions were that they would have calamity, people said I was insane for predicting otherwise, but now that their deaths are completely and utterly negligible and their number of sick people is trivial, the narrative has had to change to 'Oh, but so many people died, we can't have that' (look at the average age of those deaths!!!) and consider that even with the most extreme restrictions, all this time into the pandemic, Victoria is having the virus spreading like crazy anyway, and more outbreaks in other states are inevitable, while a Sweden model would by this stage allow for absolute business as usual, while I am literally not allowed outside for more than an hour per day and have an 8PM curfew and extreme restrictions on my activity, despite having been in perfect health since before any of us had heard of this virus. Businesses closed, extraordinary unemployment, etc etc... how can anyone not see that this is caused by the government-imposed restrictions and not the virus itself?

Surely no one can honestly say this is untrue, but it does go against the implication of the mainstream narrative, which is what people are feeling, which influences their thinking. This means understanding this is a critical step in understanding the economic impact of the virus, which means it is absolutely fundamental to the topic of this thread.

The virus is not just going to go away. The economy will recover when we stop being scared of the virus. If you want to understand what the economy will do, you need to understand what is causing the changes to the economy, and when that will change.

Some of you keep saying that I'm "off topic" because you disagree. But surely even a below average frog can see that even if what I'm saying was wrong, it would not be off topic.

Whether or not there will be an effective vaccine is absolutely on topic. If you are correct and there is a medical miracle which gives us a highly effective, safe vaccine, then obviously that eliminates the need for shutdowns and we can all go back to work, starting up businesses, flying around the world on holidays, drinking until we throw up at the pup, hanging out in big groups at our friends' houses to watch mainstream 6O'clock propaganda and cry when we see Trump get reelected. If there isn't a virus, obviously that's also relevant to the economic impact. If there's an ineffective vaccine which gets used anyway, surely you can see that it also has a relevance to the situation, and if you somehow think the virus itself is the main thing causing the economic issues, then you'd think that was highly relevant.

The fact that you disagree with me doesn't mean I'm off topic.

The double standards in this thread about what is absolute fact and what is speculation or definitively incorrect are also crazy.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Zero basis for your claim.




Zero basis to the claim that most of the people dying from the virus were soon to die anyway?

Are you even aware that most of them have been in nursing homes? You know people don't go to nursing homes when they're young and have the world at their feet, right? You know the average age of the people dying is around the same as the average life expectancy of the country, right? Do you deny that too? Most of the younger deaths have comorbidities. You know I'm not making this up.


I'll leave it at your first point and won't address them all because it gets tedious, but it would all be much like this.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Are you even aware that most of them have been in nursing homes? You know people don't go to nursing homes when they're young and have the world at their feet, right? You know the average age of the people dying is around the same as the average life expectancy of the country, right? Do you deny that too? Most of the younger deaths have comorbidities. You know I'm not making this up.



The issue is that you are indeed correct. With the lockdowns etc it is indeed mostly the elderly and sick who are ending up dead.

Now go to the US and that isn't the case at all, it's drastically worse even by their own official figures.

That's the problem. What you say is true is true only because of the lockdowns, that being the point of them. Much like the car moves because it has fuel but its ongoing movement is by no means proof that you should stop putting fuel in. Do that and it stops working.

Downside = they're costing an outright fortune and will leave society significantly poorer with effects on pretty much everything. Hence the need to do it once and get it right without all this half hearted nonsense.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The fact that you disagree with me doesn't mean I'm off topic.



Agreed we should all consider others' views politely and respectfully.

Nobody here, or anywhere for that matter, is really sure where all this is heading.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The issue is that you are indeed correct. With the lockdowns etc it is indeed mostly the elderly and sick who are ending up dead.
> 
> Now go to the US and that isn't the case at all, it's drastically worse even by their own official figures.
> 
> ...




Now you're the one who is actually getting off topic.

The response to this is that if we look at a place like Sweden which went for no lockdown, no removal of human freedom, no shutting down of businesses, the virus has already run its course and deaths close enough to zero now. Here's a link to a display of the official figures: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

To relate this back to the topic, this is the only real way to get to that point, assuming an effective vaccine is not coming any time soon (I don't believe it will come at all, but no point going around in circles with that argument - but consider that Trump agrees with you and not me, so perhaps you'll change your mind!). Contrast this with Australia, where after having the virus already at very low numbers and with all we've learned, bang, we suddenly had a far bigger ripple (I'm not going to call it a wave; 50 people being significantly ill in the whole country does not count as a wave of anything) than the initial one. If that's the best we can do even with all we've learned, all the economic destruction, all the efforts, all the drastic measures, and we still have it spreading like this (you would no doubt call it a wave), clearly the efforts are pointless. To avoid an argument let's assume you are correct in trusting the official story that it all started with security guards having sex with a tiny number of people. If that's all it takes to set this off, an average sock puppet should be able to see that if that's true we're going to have more such outbreaks, because human beings being human beings, you'll have an occasional individual doing something like this. While a Sweden strategy already has the death rate at effectively zero (average of less than 1 per day over the last 10 days, after a very steady downwards trend). How is this not a no brainer? Look at Australia's figures and consider that even if we magically get on top of it by way of destroying our economy, the strategy means we will inevitably have the same thing happen again. If a vaccine or magical cure does come along, there's nothing stopping anyone from using it.

Again, to relate it to the topic, the economy can't function properly and return to normal until one or the other happens (herd immunity, for which we have a proven model) or the hypothetical vaccine. This gives us information on what to expect the economy to do.

Detractors of the Sweden model point out that Sweden's economy has suffered, but neglect to point out that this is only because other countries refused to do business with them or travel there, because they saw Sweden as a risky place. It didn't overwhelm the healthcare system or wipe out a quarter of the population or anything like that, they've just been caught up in the global economic nonsense - the effects of the virus within the country did nothing of great significance to the economy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Again, to relate it to the topic, the economy



The topic is the economic implications of the virus not simply "how to get the economy going". It's by no means off topic to be thinking that we're not actually going to return to the 2019 economy in a hurry or indeed ever.

There's a good reason why the cruise lines and airlines have started scrapping ships and planes respectively. They're not fools and they know full well that the economy, globally, is not going back to how it was in 2019 anytime soon and that situation isn't limited to Australia.

It's not as though the basic concepts here are new. It's only about 50 years since Torrens Island, on the outskirts of Adelaide, became better known for its then new power station rather than its quarantine station. Yes, quarantine station - where they used to keep arriving passengers before allowing them to enter the state and that facility was in use for close to a century. Plenty of similar things existed elsewhere too.

The invention of aircraft didn't remove the need for quarantine. We just stopped doing it until it blew up. 

I'll happily trade what the markets do and if the market does a V-shaped recovery then so be it but I'm sure not seeing any reason to expect that from the real economy especially tourism and things relating to it. Airlines and the cruise ship industry seem to have reached the same conclusion - they wouldn't have become scrap metal suppliers if not.

As for the medical aspect of all this, the big unanswered question remains the facts. If we "let it rip" through the population then can someone, anyone, simply explain what happens?

How many people die?

Of those who die, what are their circumstances? Age? Background health issues?

How many suffer ongoing effects but not immediate death?

Of those who do suffer such effects, what are those effects? And what are the characteristics of the people who suffer from those effects? Age? Background health issues? Etc.

Once that's answered, sensible debate about the best course of action becomes far simpler and it may well turn out that "let it rip" is a rational approach.

In the meantime the lack of an answer to that question strongly suggests that either nobody knows or the answers are decidedly unpleasant.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Detractors of the Sweden model point out that Sweden's economy has suffered, but neglect to point out that this is only because other countries refused to do business with them or travel there, because they saw Sweden as a risky place. It didn't overwhelm the healthcare system or wipe out a quarter of the population or anything like that



Just imagine if we actually had Sweden's approach to healthcare and society generally.

We could have then followed their model and achieved the same results yes.

Trouble is, in Australia it's rather hard to convince anyone to resource things like hospitals to be ready and there's stuff all spare capacity to cope with a spike in requirements so as to avoid the problem of hospitals being overwhelmed. There simply isn't the capacity to cope beyond a very low level.

Resource the hospitals so that we don't have waiting lists and so on under normal circumstances then we'll have plenty of ability to cope when there's some sort of problem like this one. That's one lesson we can definitely learn.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just imagine if we actually had Sweden's approach to healthcare and society generally.
> 
> We could have then followed their model and achieved the same results yes.
> 
> ...



With the caveat that coronavirus does not have further surprises for us, e.g. medium term severe complications after recovery in those stricken, the major difference between our and the NZ public health approach and the UK and Italian experience is that our healthcare resources have not been overwhelmed to the same degree. This has given us time. Time to care for the unwell as well as to plan for suitable closing of non vital industries.

This leaves Mining and Commodities, Agriculture, Health, IT and Communications a chance to function as normal or even thrive.

The "business" of sipping lattes in Carlton or having a pie and peas at Grappa in Leichardt are for the lightweight and inessential in our economy. It has also given the bloated, dangerous education sector a good cleanout.

We are a nation rich and robust enough to endure two years of significant economic downturn to recover.

The market is now beginning to indicate this.

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> With the caveat that coronavirus does not have further surprises for us



Indeed and at this stage I’m assuming that governments at least suspect there’s cause for concern.


----------



## qldfrog (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> But surely even a below average frog can see that even if what I'm saying was wrong, it would not be off topic



Ohh feeling a bit offended here
As to
 what a let it rip thru attitude would do here?
.yes we are not Sweden
So what about comparing us to an indian slum,
Can we all agree we are not worse?
If so: this is what happens
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...um-declares-victory-over-coronavirus/12518818
From ABC  to make sure that it is not discarded as extreme right Murdock conspiracy LoL
DYOR out of this, please read till the end
The economic issue for Australia is that mining and essential services are employing a minuscule amount of people
This crisis self made or not, demonstrates how lopsided our economy is
In the same way as the average Aussie is no blond supra fit surfer dude, he is not a miner, farmer or carpenter
You average Aussie is in PS, a nurse,on welfare or part time barista
This is a bloody sick economy more than a covid sick society, with parasiting as its basis.it never ends well, and we are increasing the imbalance with our response


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Typical Rederob ,you (not me) state that Italian and Spanish hospitals are overwhelmed , now aka today and when confronted go on a tangent.
> What a piece...



Versus:


rederob said:


> Spain, Italy the UK and dozens of nations *had....*



Try denying that with evidence.
Want me to pick a dozen other right now which have their medical resources overrun as a result of COVID-19 so you can deny that as well.
You are a factless zone peddling pseudoscience and lies on these matters.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Again, look at Sweden, the mainstream predictions were that they would have calamity, people said I was insane for predicting otherwise, but now that* their deaths are completely and utterly negligible *and their number of sick people is trivial,





You are joking aren't you ? 

The figures tell a different story.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The virus itself is not causing significant changes to the economy or anything else, when compared to the impact of the fear campaigns and government-imposed shut downs.



Zero evidence - again.


Sdajii said:


> If we just calmly treated it like the flu (no harm in encouraging extra hand washing, hygiene measures, etc), we'd have a few more people than usual dying in nursing homes, a few more people than usual in hospitals, and really not that much else.



Show us where the flu has collapsed hospital systems as continues to be the case in many nations across the world.  Or show us where the flu leaves sufferers with a range of other lifelong morbidities.
You simply make this up as you go.


Sdajii said:


> Businesses closed, extraordinary unemployment, etc etc... how can anyone not see that this is caused by the government-imposed restrictions and not the virus itself?



Were it not for the infection rate of the virus and its serious health consequences governments would not be taking this action.  We are nothing like Sweden.  The USA is nothing like Sweden but has tried their approach in opening up, only to suffer worse than previously.  We get it that you don't. 


Sdajii said:


> Surely no one can honestly say this is untrue....



Yes, a lot of people can use data to show your points are poorly based.


Sdajii said:


> The economy will recover when we stop being scared of the virus.



Another completely baseless claim.


Sdajii said:


> The double standards in this thread about what is absolute fact and what is speculation or definitively incorrect are also crazy.



Can you please show us where you are providing "facts" to support your claims.


Sdajii said:


> Detractors of the Sweden model point out that Sweden's economy has suffered, but neglect to point out that this is only because other countries refused to do business with them or travel there, because they saw Sweden as a risky place.



It's true that bordering nations stopped Swedes from crossing, and that actually worked as a "lockdown" effect by mitigating spread.  However, countries did not stop doing business, so that's another fabrication.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Zero basis to the claim that most of the people dying from the virus were soon to die anyway?



Tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, in ten years, or longer?
Should I be telling my 97 year old mother that her life is worthless and that she and her partner should drop dead asap so we can all get on with our lives?
The problem with your idea of "soon" is that it's a guess.  Put your point into a logical context, had she died of COVID-19 and was 80 years old, then that's ok because not many people live longer anyway.  Yet that 17 year difference (and counting) in life expectancy is not just statistically significant, it has human value.


----------



## Knobby22 (8 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> While we are it, can we also do our bit for poverty, drug abuse, domestic violence and multi nationals paying taxes. All have an ecomomic impact on Aussies doing their bit. But none of them cause govnuts to close down society and remove our freedoms.



No they don't. And as my Dad would say, how does that relate to the price of fish.


----------



## Junior (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If we just calmly treated it like the flu (no harm in encouraging extra hand washing, hygiene measures, etc), we'd have a few more people than usual dying in nursing homes, a few more people than usual in hospitals, and really not that much else.




Unfortunately this is simply untrue.

Victoria is a good example to look at, as we have high rates of testing, and detailed data which is updated daily.

We have a total of 695 ICU beds across the entire state (which was increased earlier this year due to COVID...in 2018 we had 476 beds).  Right Now, there are 41 COVID cases in ICU beds (up from just 1 or 2 cases a month ago).  This means more than 10% of people in ICU in Victoria, are there due to COVID19.  Keep in mind, this is happening despite Stage 3, and now Stage 4 restrictions, and this is happening whilst we have the vast majority of the population who have not been exposed to the virus, due to restrictions and physical distancing. 

If we just let it rip, and treated it like it's no big deal, like the flu, what do you think would happen to our healthcare system?

My wife is an experienced nurse and works in the COVID ward at Monash clayton, so I'm getting first-hand accounts of how the hospital is coping.  It's already strained just with the current numbers, despite the cancellation/postponement of elective surgeries etc.  

Because this virus is so contagious, we have large numbers of healthcare workers contracting the virus, we also have some nurses who are terrified and trying to get re-deployed to other wards and away from COVID patients.  We have nurses and doctors who have another risk factor i.e. pregnancy or heart condition, who are terrified of catching COVID, and so refusing to treat COVID patients.

The virus cannot just be ignored, or treated like the flu.  It is not the flu.


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

Junior said:


> Unfortunately this is simply untrue.
> 
> Victoria is a good example to look at, as we have high rates of testing, and detailed data which is updated daily.
> 
> ...



No it is not the flu. The flu, at times has been much worse by a number of multiples.... Even in my own lifetime.

It is interesting that the demarcation of alarm about covid roughly coincides with the same demarcation with Trump derangement syndrome, climate change alarm, and neo Marxist, postmodernist, identitarian ideologies 

The correlation factor would be so close to 1.0 that it would not matter.

I find that interesting.


----------



## satanoperca (8 August 2020)

Junior said:


> The virus cannot just be ignored, or treated like the flu.  It is not the flu.




Junior, if you take time into consideration, it is a lot less worse than the first cases of H1N1 virus, 1918 Spanish Flu.

What is the difference between the general term used for the flu today, we humans have built up an immunity to it or that be it, the various strains and mutations of it.

History always gives us insight into the future.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You are joking aren't you ?
> 
> The figures tell a different story.




It's literally less than one person per day and since they hit their flatline low level of scarcely above zero (again, literally less than one person per day!) every single one of those people have been elderly.

On what planet or in what warped state of mind is the death of less than one elderly person per day in a whole country of millions of people not trivial?


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Zero evidence - again.




It's difficult to imagine what state of mind you require to think that a total of around 275 people over the course of this whole year, most of whom have been elderly or extremely ill, none of which is disputed by anyone, is the thing causing the economic problems we're experiencing. You really need evidence to see that the shutdowns are the cause rather than the trivial number of people actually affected by the virus? Obviously we'd have more cases if we had no mitigation measures, but obviously, as it stands, the economic problems can not possibly be caused by the virus.



> Show us where the flu has collapsed hospital systems as continues to be the case in many nations across the world.




EXACTLY!!! Flus which kill and harm far, far, far more people than this have don't cause these problems, because we don't take ridiculous actions in response to them.



> Or show us where the flu leaves sufferers with a range of other lifelong morbidities.




You keep asking for evidence and also keep saying bizarre stuff like this.



> Were it not for the infection rate of the virus and its serious health consequences governments would not be taking this action.  We are nothing like Sweden.  The USA is nothing like Sweden but has tried their approach in opening up, only to suffer worse than previously.  We get it that you don't.




In what relevant way are we not like Sweden?

The USA has not tried the same approach as Sweden! The USA is a very large, very populous countries with over 50 states, each of which has taken a different approach!



> It's true that bordering nations stopped Swedes from crossing, and that actually worked as a "lockdown" effect by mitigating spread.  However, countries did not stop doing business, so that's another fabrication.




So... with Sweden now having effectively zero deaths (less than 1 per day now), you think it helped neighbouring countries to isolate from Sweden and take different approaches, while those countries which avoided Sweden are having higher rates of death than Sweden is?

And honestly, you think that shutting down borders doesn't mean Sweden lost business? I suppose you want evidence and some peer-reviewed journal reference to show that if people are not allowed into the country they will travel less and buy less stuff in that country?


----------



## SirRumpole (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's literally less than one person per day and since they hit their flatline low level of scarcely above zero (again, literally less than one person per day!) every single one of those people have been elderly.
> 
> On what planet or in what warped state of mind is the death of less than one elderly person per day in a whole country of millions of people not trivial?




The fact is that all these covid patients elderly or not clog up the hospital emergency centres and infect essential health workers who then have to take time off, depleting the services available to non covid patients.

Unless you are trying to argue that we should abolish the health system entirely and let only the healthiest survive, ie if you have cancer or diabetes too bad you are going to die anyway so why spend money on you ?

Your arguments simply don't hold water in any civilised society.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, in ten years, or longer?
> Should I be telling my 97 year old mother that her life is worthless and that she and her partner should drop dead asap so we can all get on with our lives?




At 97, your mother will almost certainly be dead in closer to next week than in 10 years. This is just the reality. Destroying the country's economy in lockdowns, removing personal freedom, destroying livelihoods, literally imposing an 8PM curfew on an entire city of people and saying they are only allowed outdoors for a maximum of 1 hour per day and husbands and wives or parents and children are forbidden to even go shopping together is not going to give your mother 10 extra years of life. The rate of deaths has not even gone down in Melbourne despite these draconian restrictions. Those 97 year olds who are guaranteed to die in the not too distant future either way, are now living in isolation from the only people in this world who love them, and since people at that age are not long for this world, whatever it is which kills them during this time, they die alone without being able to say goodbye to their loved ones. At 97 I'd rather take a small chance of getting a disease which may kill me in exchange for being able to be with my loved ones until I check out of this world. I sure as heck wouldn't want to be forced into isolated knowing that my family and my whole country were being forced into massively destructive conditions.



> The problem with your idea of "soon" is that it's a guess.  Put your point into a logical context, had she died of COVID-19 and was 80 years old, then that's ok because not many people live longer anyway.  Yet that 17 year difference (and counting) in life expectancy is not just statistically significant, it has human value.




You have such tunnel view that you only see the value in extending the lives of a very small number of old people while ignoring all the harm being done to many many millions of others!

In a perfect world we'd all live to 150 years of age in perfect health. In the real world we don't. In a perfect world we wouldn't have millions of people forced out of work and to lose their businesses, millions of people having 8PM curfews imposed on them, being unable to go to school, being unable to sit down and enjoy the sunshine outdoors, and we wouldn't force elderly people into nursing homes to be isolated from their own loved ones!

Perhaps you need evidence for this too?


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

Junior said:


> Unfortunately this is simply untrue.
> 
> Victoria is a good example to look at, as we have high rates of testing, and detailed data which is updated daily.
> 
> ...




Please refer to Sweden for a real world case study.



> The virus cannot just be ignored, or treated like the flu.  It is not the flu.




You're ignoring the massive destruction being caused by the lockdowns, and the fact that they're going to be ongoing for a long time, and the fact that if we let it run its course it'll stop being a big issue and we can get on with life. You're highlighting the problems of the virus, ignoring the fact that they're temporary if we just let it run its course, and ignoring the problems caused by the lockdowns, and ignoring that we have no end point in sight if we use the lockdown model.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> ...but obviously, as it stands, the economic problems can not possibly be caused by the virus



If not for the virus then the issue would not have arisen.


Sdajii said:


> You keep asking for evidence and also keep saying bizarre stuff like this.



You offer nothing but your unfounded opinions.
Why aren't you and your ilk advocating the Chinese model?  Far fewer deaths  - 4 per million compared to 8145 in Sweden - and an economic recovery that's been humming along for months.  For that matter, look at what has been achieved in the States/Territories of Australia that have acted responsibly.  The continued harping on about Sweden as the way to go simply isn't reflected by the data.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> At 97, your mother will almost certainly be dead in closer to next week than in 10 years. This is just the reality. Destroying the country's economy in lockdowns, removing personal freedom, destroying livelihoods, literally imposing an 8PM curfew on an entire city of people and saying they are only allowed outdoors for a maximum of 1 hour per day and husbands and wives or parents and children are forbidden to even go shopping together is not going to give your mother 10 extra years of life. The rate of deaths has not even gone down in Melbourne despite these draconian restrictions. Those 97 year olds who are guaranteed to die in the not too distant future either way, are now living in isolation from the only people in this world who love them, and since people at that age are not long for this world, whatever it is which kills them during this time, they die alone without being able to say goodbye to their loved ones. At 97 I'd rather take a small chance of getting a disease which may kill me in exchange for being able to be with my loved ones until I check out of this world. I sure as heck wouldn't want to be forced into isolated knowing that my family and my whole country were being forced into massively destructive conditions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Your opinions are not worth a cracker - offer substance instead.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The fact is that all these covid patients elderly or not clog up the hospital emergency centres and infect essential health workers who then have to take time off, depleting the services available to non covid patients.
> 
> Unless you are trying to argue that we should abolish the health system entirely and let only the healthiest survive, ie if you have cancer or diabetes too bad you are going to die anyway so why spend money on you ?
> 
> Your arguments simply don't hold water in any civilised society.




You're ignoring the fact that what you said was completely wrong, and putting absurd words in my mouth, using a blatant strawman argument strategy, which as we all know is used when you can't debate the actual matter properly.

The model I advocate has been tested, it didn't leave anyone being told "Sorry, we're not going to help you, go away and die" and it didn't overwhelm the healthcare system.

Australia has a very capable healthcare system, it's not like Sweden is the only developed country and Australia is some backwater slum. Even in slums though, it makes no sense to force people to avoid making a living for themselves. Obviously densely-populated third world countries will do worse, that's just the reality, but even they can't cope with a population of people who stop being productive, which will harm most people and kill many, for the sake of a relatively small number of elderly people.

Throughout history, people have sacrificed themselves for the greater good, usually willingly but sometimes through conscription etc. In this case we are forcing the majority of people to suffer for the sake of a small number of people. It's utter insanity.

Even in actual pandemics which actually kill a significant number of people including young, healthy people, we haven't seen insane lockdowns like this (unless perhaps in some obscure cases). It doesn't make sense to do such harm to an entire country for the sake of so little. People keep saying "Oh, don't you care about a few old people? Don't they matter?" while they themselves ignore the millions of others suffering as though they don't matter.

To relate it back to the topic, which you haven't even tried to do, the economic impact is clearly being caused by the lockdowns etc, and we will only recover when we get rid of the lockdowns. The lockdowns are not eliminating the virus so they are not a strategy with an endpoint, just an ongoing system of economic destruction. It does indeed seem we are stuck in this paradigm for the time being, and the question we need to ask is when will this change?


----------



## basilio (8 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> It is interesting that the demarcation of alarm about covid roughly coincides with the same demarcation with Trump derangement syndrome, climate change alarm, and neo Marxist, postmodernist, identitarian ideologies




I can see the connection.

Some people recognise that Trump is a sociopathic self dealing menace.  They realise that our warming climate and its primary cause is very real based on overwhelming scientific analysis as well a rapidly warming earth. They now see a new highly contagious disease that has swept the globe and  clearly overwhelmed countries around the  world. This is also recognised as a serious threat to the fabric of our society.

And then some people can't/won't recognise any of these realities.

At the apex of this divide stands Donald Trump. Self proclaimed stable genius who alone has the capacity to solve all the problems facing the US and the world.

Donald Trump who called global warming a Chinese hoax and has spent 4 years dismantling every US initiative to tackle the problem.

The Don who undermined the US preparations for pandemics. Who has refused to recognise the threat to public health from day one. Who has repeatedly said "this will just disappear" as the toll rises and hundreds of thousands of people sicken and die. Who refuses to acknowledge and support basic public health initiatives in pandemics like masks, social distancing, effective testing, proper follow up  of infected people.

This is the same Donald Trump who sees a Christian white  male cohort as the leadership of the country.

Who supports White Supremacists who take this view to heart and march in support of their Great White Hope.

A Donald Trump who supports the most extreme evangelicals who also back a rigid philosophy that has no place for non believers.


----------



## satanoperca (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Your opinions are not worth a cracker - offer substance instead.




And yours are?

Sdajii is keeping it on topic, about the economy, you are addressing issues with your mother, says a lot.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The model I advocate has been tested, it didn't leave anyone being told "Sorry, we're not going to help you, go away and die" and it didn't overwhelm the healthcare system.



Completely untrue.  Sweden chose to let older people die in aged care facilities rather than have them overload ICUs.  You keep guessing wrong.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> If not for the virus then the issue would not have arisen.
> You offer nothing but your unfounded opinions.
> Why aren't you and your ilk advocating the Chinese model?  Far fewer deaths  - 4 per million compared to 8145 in Sweden - and an economic recovery that's been humming along for months.  For that matter, look at what has been achieved in the States/Territories of Australia that have acted responsibly.  The continued harping on about Sweden as the way to go simply isn't reflected by the data.




I wish you had to spend the rest of your life living in China and dealing with their police and government after such an insane statement. If you don't know what life in China is like you'd do well to learn.

In any case, China's official figures are worth less than your posts, or less than you think mine are worth.


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Completely untrue.  Sweden chose to let older people die in aged care facilities rather than have them overload ICUs.  You keep guessing wrong.




Not everyone who dies is in hospital. This is the case everywhere. Even in Australia last year or 5-10 years ago, people in old folks' homes die there of all manner of things including flu etc.

To the extent that Sweden dealt with this issue in this way, which is not particularly dissimilar to the way Australia has always dealt with the issue of flu etc in the elderly, yes, I'd deal with it in a fairly similar way.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> And yours are?
> 
> Sdajii is keeping it on topic, about the economy, you are addressing issues with your mother, says a lot.



I and others suggest to @Sdajii he move his off topic comments elsewhere, but he refuses to!
Joe might need to move them across again.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Not everyone who dies is in hospital. This is the case everywhere. Even in Australia last year or 5-10 years ago, people in old folks' homes die there of all manner of things including flu etc.
> 
> To the extent that Sweden dealt with this issue in this way, which is not particularly dissimilar to the way Australia has always dealt with the issue of flu etc in the elderly, yes, I'd deal with it in a fairly similar way.



Wrong thread!


----------



## Sdajii (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Wrong thread!




I literally try to keep it on topic, you literally ask off topic questions, I literally answer your off topic question, then you literally complain about it!


----------



## rederob (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I literally try to keep it on topic, you literally ask off topic questions, I literally answer your off topic question, then you literally complain about it!



I have only ever *responded *to your false, misleading, and baseless claims *in this thread*.


----------



## basilio (8 August 2020)

There is some objective analysis of how the Swedish approach to COVID has worked vs Denmark and Norway their direct neighbours.

I posted this elsewhere but of course it isn't the only perspective on how they have dealt with the crisis.

Per Bengtsson/Shutterstock
*  Sweden eschewed lockdowns. It’s too early to be certain it was wrong  *
August 5, 2020 9.40am AEST

https://theconversation.com/sweden-...s-too-early-to-be-certain-it-was-wrong-143829


Johan Nilsson/AAP
*  No, Australia should not follow Sweden’s approach to coronavirus  *
July 29, 2020 6.23pm AEST
https://theconversation.com/no-australia-should-not-follow-swedens-approach-to-coronavirus-143540


----------



## Knobby22 (8 August 2020)

Even though we only have a small breakout, we already have 2 men in their  30s dead.


----------



## explod (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> At 97, your mother will almost certainly be dead in closer to next week than in 10 years. This is just the reality. Destroying the country's economy in lockdowns, removing personal freedom, destroying livelihoods, literally imposing an 8PM curfew on an entire city of people and saying they are only allowed outdoors for a maximum of 1 hour per day and husbands and wives or parents and children are forbidden to even go shopping together is not going to give your mother 10 extra years of life. The rate of deaths has not even gone down in Melbourne despite these draconian restrictions. Those 97 year olds who are guaranteed to die in the not too distant future either way, are now living in isolation from the only people in this world who love them, and since people at that age are not long for this world, whatever it is which kills them during this time, they die alone without being able to say goodbye to their loved ones. At 97 I'd rather take a small chance of getting a disease which may kill me in exchange for being able to be with my loved ones until I check out of this world. I sure as heck wouldn't want to be forced into isolated knowing that my family and my whole country were being forced into massively destructive conditions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




What an absolutely mongrel thing to say.

My Mother turns 98 on the 15th of August. She raised eight of us children in very hard conditions on a Soldier Settlement farm and as a city girl one wonders how she got through that and a small tiny person at that. She was a stenographer at Victoria Barracks (Army) during WW2. 

She is bright and alert, still into politics and in a good veteran's home. Her Mothers first husband was killed in France in the first war and so I had a step Uncle who'd never met his Dad.

Singling out groups/ages is shocking Champ.

You need to re-examine your life and thinking.

No one can help the virus in my view. The lockdown here in Melbourne being total will work.  If not we are all stuffed kids and elderly included.  For that I am sad for all.


----------



## Joe Blow (8 August 2020)

Folks, please try and be a little sensitive. Nobody likes to think of loved ones passing away. This is clearly an emotive debate, but a little sensitivity goes a long way. Thanks.


----------



## sptrawler (8 August 2020)

Regional W.A tourist towns are having the best year ever, so the State Government is going to throw bucket loads of money at them, to pork barrel oops I mean improve attractions.


----------



## explod (8 August 2020)

Joe Blow said:


> Folks, please try and be a little sensitive. Nobody likes to think of loved ones passing away. This is clearly an emotive debate, but a little sensitivity goes a long way. Thanks.



It does effect business dramatically I realise but still don't think it should be on the open trading forum Joe. Or perhaps everyone just post business effects only.

Just ten cents.


----------



## Joe Blow (8 August 2020)

explod said:


> It does effect business dramatically I realise but still don't think it should be on the open trading forum Joe. Or perhaps everyone just post business effects only.




I don't think anyone should be bringing their own family, or anyone else's, into a debate such as this.


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Even though we only have a small breakout, we already have 2 men in their  30s dead.



2!!!!

OMG!!!!!

Do you know how many 30 yos have topped themselves?


----------



## Knobby22 (8 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> 2!!!!
> 
> OMG!!!!!
> 
> Do you know how many 30 yos have topped themselves?




If you are saying from this year. No one knows. 
We have a scrappy system that will be upgraded in 2022. 
So I suppose that was a rhetorical question.


----------



## satanoperca (8 August 2020)

If we cannot report accurately on past and current events, like suicide in < 30year old men in Oz?
 Do you really think the data that is available on covid is accurate?


----------



## macca (8 August 2020)

This is the Covid economic thread, people are arguing from opposite perspectives.

No One Wants anyone to die but we cannot continue to lock down our nation.

There are treatments overseas that are getting good results but our media is not publishing them and social media is actively censoring them, wonder why ?

Certain people are pushing a vaccine that has 100% side effects very similar to Covid, no way are they putting that in me

So once this bout of Covid  is contained we will unlock again and shortly after that we will have another outbreak, what do we do then ?


----------



## Knobby22 (8 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> If we cannot report accurately on past and current events, like suicide in < 30year old men in Oz?
> Do you really think the data that is available on covid is accurate?



Yes, suicide is more difficult to measure and involves the coroner.


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

rederob said:


> Your opinions are not worth a cracker - offer substance instead.



The irony


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> If you are saying from this year. No one knows.
> We have a scrappy system that will be upgraded in 2022.
> So I suppose that was a rhetorical question.



Dude, I know two 30 yo that died from falling off horses this year... and tragically, a beautiful 17 yo girl that had an amazing life ahead of her 

Should we shut down the equestrian community?


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

And @rederob

Regarding  what you naively thought was a rhetorical question you asked earlier... Some "facts" for you:

(The lower tweet)


----------



## Knobby22 (8 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> Dude, I know two 30 yo that died from falling off horses this year... and tragically, a beautiful 17 yo girl that had an amazing life ahead of her
> 
> Should we shut down the equestrian community?



Obviously not!
We should improve it.
And I don't see why we should let anyone down.
Young or old. 

And throwing people to the wolves for the sake of the economy would cause even more long term mental harm. We are not bastrds here, though some want us to be.


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Obviously not!
> We should improve it.
> And I don't see why we should let anyone down.
> Young or old.
> ...



Ok, then what you are saying is that we should take reasonable steps to try to minimise incidents and harm, without harming the whole.

Isn't that what my, and other's points are here.

Most certainly  we should try to minimise the harm of covid for those people who are at most risk, the elderly and others with comorbidities.

Of course we should, nobody is suggesting otherwise.

But should we harm the whole in that pursuit?


----------



## wayneL (8 August 2020)

Wow!

Just f***ING wow!


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's literally less than one person per day



For that to be true, Sweden would need to have been experiencing this as an ongoing issue since at least 2005.

If that's the case then they've kept it awfully quiet until now.


----------



## wabullfrog (8 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> Wow!
> 
> Just f***ING wow!





Suggest you go & listen to the whole answer to the question before cherry picking a snipit like that. It really does your argument a disservice to do otherwise. 

Below is a link to a Youtube video of the whole interview & a transcript of the question asked



https://www.rev.com/blog/transcript...-andrews-press-conference-transcript-august-7





> Reporter: (56:52)
> In these uncertain, unprecedented times, do people just need to be patient?
> 
> Daniel Andrews: (57:00)
> ...


----------



## SirRumpole (9 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> To relate it back to the topic, which you haven't even tried to do, the economic impact is clearly being caused by the lockdowns etc, and we will only recover when we get rid of the lockdowns. The lockdowns are not eliminating the virus so they are not a strategy with an endpoint, just an ongoing system of economic destruction. It does indeed seem we are stuck in this paradigm for the time being, and the question we need to ask is when will this change?




You keep talking about Sweden, why don't you talk about New Zealand ?

Initial total lockdown virtually eliminated the virus there.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> Dude, I know two 30 yo that died from falling off horses this year... and tragically, a beautiful 17 yo girl that had an amazing life ahead of her
> 
> Should we shut down the equestrian community?




If horses are rampaging through the streets and killing innocent persons then yes, we should stop that.

In the context of riding them however well that's a completely voluntary activity. Unlike a virus which in practice is hard to avoid, that being the inherent problem with it.

I'm very sure I haven't ridden a horse today but I can't be sure I wasn't exposed to COVID-19, there's the problem.


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2020)

Isn't the paradox and the real issue developing into this black and white response the fact that indeed, not only can you not know if you have been exposed but for conservatively 75% of people, being exposed and catching it is  transparent and symptomless, not even fever.
So the scare tactics and martial law
Unless curfew and restriction of movement is the new normal for freedom


This is behind the hysteria in testings..2 near acquaintances got tested and were freaking out, here in Brisbane, one 18y old.FFS
Both negative
We used to have a whole industry of positive mindset, some even supposedly curing cancer..i  know...
And now, we have 20y olds freaking out catching a disease which is harmless to them while 6 months ago, no one was wearing tongue condom to avoid herpes, a much more significant issue for that age.
Crazy
And extra $ for these tests not thinking about the cost on the planet with waste of resources right and left
But it is ok, we are going to forbid plastic straw in QLD.
Where is Greta? LOL


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> This is behind the hysteria in testings..2 near acquaintances got tested and were freaking out, here in Brisbane, one 18y old.FFS
> Both negative* And now, we have 20y olds freaking out catching a disease which is harmless to them while 6 months ago, no one was wearing tongue condom to avoid herpes, a much more significant issue for that age.
> Crazy*
> Where is Greta? LOL




Thank you @qldfrog . I was feeling mellow this morning enjoying cool air and a breeze off the ocean with the attendant smells and sounds when your post awoke me. A quick check on alibaba.com shows that POTUS Tongue condoms come highly, or lowly as the case may be, recommended.




An now back to the economy and coronavirus.

gg


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thank you @qldfrog . I was feeling mellow this morning enjoying cool air and a breeze off the ocean with the attendant smells and sounds when your post awoke me. A quick check on alibaba.com shows that POTUS Tongue condoms come highly, or lowly as the case may be, recommended.
> 
> View attachment 107155
> 
> ...




So what is the actual cost of testing? Anyone aware?


----------



## Knobby22 (9 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> So what is the actual cost of testing? Anyone aware?



Also need cost of an ICU bed if anyone knows.


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Also need cost of an ICU bed if anyone knows.



Indeed how much icu per days etc


----------



## basilio (9 August 2020)

*A Liberal Premiers perspective on Dan Andrews.
*
Former New South Wales Liberal premier, Mike Baird, has written in support of Victoria’s Daniel Andrews (who is Labor).

“The political badge you wear should mean very little during this moment,” he said in a blog post titled ‘Perspective’.

We are living through history, and there is no playbook they give you when you become PM, Premier or Minister on how to respond.

Leaders are making dozens, and perhaps hundreds, of big decisions every day. And not all of them will be correct in hindsight. Every leader around the world is learning on the run, and the stakes are impossibly high. Every leader is making mistakes, which is not surprising as they are human.”

...Let's support him as he tries to do the impossible.

I’ll finish with the famous words of Teddy Roosevelt. Words that Dan, and all our leaders, probably need right now:

*It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. 
 The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood… who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
*
The full post is here.


----------



## over9k (9 August 2020)

Jesus christ can we give the political bull**** a rest? Nobody cares what you or I or anyone else thinks should happen. We're here to discuss what will happen. 

I reckon vic will remain in hard lockdown for quite a while, will very slowly ease. NSW will continue its whack-a-mole approach. 

I also reckon NSW/VIC/ACT are going to remain closed off to both the rest of the country and each other, the rest of the country will go into a travel bubble, NZ might end up in a travel bubble with the rest of the country (50/50 shot). 

I have a few bucks in web, qan, and aia in the hopes that this happens.


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Jesus christ can we give the political bull**** a rest? Nobody cares what you or I or anyone else thinks should happen. We're here to discuss what will happen.
> 
> I reckon vic will remain in hard lockdown for quite a while, will very slowly ease. NSW will continue its whack-a-mole approach.
> 
> ...



Quite right.

I'm long PMs, cryptos, private gulags and manufacturers of brownshirts and armbands..... and waiting for the moment to  short the crap out of everything else.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Jesus christ can we give the political bull**** a rest? Nobody cares what you or I or anyone else thinks should happen. We're here to discuss what will happen.
> 
> I reckon vic will remain in hard lockdown for quite a while, will very slowly ease. NSW will continue its whack-a-mole approach.
> 
> ...



I'm tending to agree.

Unless we get some significant medium term and long term effects from the virus on those already infected and "recovered", it would be reasonable to call a bottom atm., economically speaking. 

What the market or society does is moot. 

gg


----------



## satanoperca (9 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> it would be reasonable to call a bottom atm., economically speaking.




Based on what, we have not even seen the ramifications of lockdowns yet in the economy, the data is delayed depending on industry sector and has been prompt up by govnuts cash, wait until that dries up.

Then you might see a bottom or two.


----------



## over9k (9 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm tending to agree.
> 
> Unless we get some significant medium term and long term effects from the virus on those already infected and "recovered", it would be reasonable to call a bottom atm., economically speaking.
> 
> ...



Depends on how long a vaccine etc takes RE: bottom IMO. 

Jobkeeper etc being eased in a couple of months isn't such a big deal as we're heading into summer/christmas, so that means biiiig pickup in economic activity. 

It's if this continues into next winter that we're really f***ed.


----------



## satanoperca (9 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Jobkeeper etc being eased in a couple of months isn't such a big deal as we're heading into summer/christmas, so that means biiiig pickup in economic activity.




Don't understand this statement. 

So jobkeep and seeker are reduced in September, but somehow because we are moving into summer, all those on these govnuts assisted packages will go out and spent with reduced income and reduced opportunities for employment.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Don't understand this statement.
> 
> So jobkeep and seeker are reduced in September, but somehow because we are moving into summer, all those on these govnuts assisted packages will go out and spent with reduced income and reduced opportunities for employment.



It's what they do, mate.

gg


----------



## over9k (9 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Don't understand this statement.
> 
> So jobkeep and seeker are reduced in September, but somehow because we are moving into summer, all those on these govnuts assisted packages will go out and spent with reduced income and reduced opportunities for employment.



No it means that all the seasonal jobs which only exist in summer (or things which see a big surge in summer) will exist and there won't be as many people unemployed.

Tons of economic activity picks up/exists in summer that does not in winter.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Jesus christ can we give the political bull**** a rest? Nobody cares what you or I or anyone else thinks should happen. We're here to discuss what will happen.



Agreed with the sentiment but in the case of Victoria, politics may well determine what happens if it goes too far indeed the public's "tribal" approach to politics and seeing everything in political terms is arguably at least part of the reason the state's in lockdown right now.

If it wasn't for the public seeing it politically and ignoring directions then very likely the current severity of the situation and resultant second lockdown wouldn't exist.

To the extent the public and a certain "news" organisation sees it in political terms and plays games, the economic cost goes up so whilst we're not here to argue how it should be, it's wise to keep an eye on how it's actually going politically.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Tons of economic activity picks up/exists in summer that does not in winter.




Agreed it does but to what extent will that go ahead this year?

To my understanding at least some major events etc that would normally take place over summer are already cancelled and it's too late now to get them up and running.

Even things like workplace Christmas functions seem to be very doubtful.


----------



## IFocus (9 August 2020)

"The Economy"

Letting old people die for the economy is not only abhorrent / morally bankrupt but is not going to get a political party in Australia elected so it wont happen god knows why some keep harping on about it.

Based on the economy another favourite  Sweden (god knows why the conservatives suddenly praise this socialist country go figure?) seemed to preformed well early but now has been brought back to the pack with a thud. The jury is well and truly out whether this will be a success. 

 Taiwan seems to have been passed over and yet this below the numbers are stunning unlike Sweden.

"Taiwan was able to maintain an *average growth rate of 1.5% in the first five months of 2020.*

Even more surprising, in April, *Taiwan’s export orders rose more than 2% compared to last year,* marking the second consecutive month of a year-on-year increase, even though the global economy was hurt badly by the pandemic."

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...-economic-outlook-in-asia-following-covid-19/

Why?


----------



## IFocus (9 August 2020)

Please read the wiki on Sweden (best I have seen for summary at this stage its very good) it will give insight as to why the model wont fly in Australia or most other counties.

For starters the pandemic is run by a Gov department not politicians 

*COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden*

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden*


----------



## macca (9 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> "The Economy"
> 
> Letting old people die for the economy is not only abhorrent / morally bankrupt but is not going to get a political party in Australia elected so it wont happen god knows why some keep harping on about it.
> 
> ...




Why ?
Because they have had great experience at coping with China's experiments, from day one I have been advocating "get advice from the experts, give Taiwan a call"


----------



## Sdajii (9 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> For that to be true, Sweden would need to have been experiencing this as an ongoing issue since at least 2005.
> 
> If that's the case then they've kept it awfully quiet until now.




I'm not sure if you're deliberately trying to misrepresent things or if you just haven't bothered looking at the situation, but their death rate has obviously not been constant through the entire thing (or since 2005 or whatever silly figure you may want to bring up for the sake of a disingenuous argument). Obviously at some point months ago it was zero, they let it run through the community relatively unchecked (some mitigation measures but no lockdowns, just let it run). Because they didn't try to contain it or have spotfire lockdown strategies like the Australian nonsense, it is there, it exists at a stable level, and has stabilised. At that stable level it is killing a negligible number of people (with one exceptional day on Friday where 5 deaths were recorded, but zero death days are not unusual now).

By contrast, attempting to play an eternally ongoing cat and mouse strategy where you lock everyone down in response to outbreaks then open back up when the disease is at an 'acceptable level' means no heard immunity happens, you never get a particularly big problem anyway, but you probably have more virus deaths overall and you have a perpetually retarded economy, social problems, etc.

It's funny that I get accused of being off topic, but I actually try to relate it back to the topic and when I don't post all weekend I come back to pages of posts where people don't make that attempt.

Here is a link to Sweden's figures: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Compare it to Australia's: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

Compare the graphs (or numbers if you prefer) of active cases and daily death count. When you look at these pictures it's clear that Sweden's model, that is, not locking down, accepting that the virus will spread, allowing it to spread and come to a trivial level disease which never needs to have a noteworthy economic impact at all, is superior. Not just economically (which is the topic of this thread) but socially, etc, and I would strongly argue that not forcefully removing human liberty and agency has an extreme value in itself.

We keep seeing personal anecdotes of people with elderly relatives. No one is saying a 97 year old woman's life means nothing, but we need to accept that the lives and wellbeing of the entire country has value too! Even if we weren't worried about the economy it makes no sense to remove liberty and agency and human rights (and lives!) from millions of humans beings for the sake of a small number of old people. That small number of old people may be important *but so are all the other people*


----------



## Sdajii (9 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You keep talking about Sweden, why don't you talk about New Zealand ?
> 
> Initial total lockdown virtually eliminated the virus there.




New Zealand is made up of small, isolated islands, is one of the most remote countries on the planet and has a small population. Other than perhaps Greenland and Iceland it is perhaps the country with the easiest job in the world of *virtually* eliminating the virus. That being said, even they are now forced into playing the eternal lockdown game, where outbreaks will occur and lockdowns must result periodically until they adopt a Sweden model, but since they have a sparse population divided over small islands, it will always be easy (or if they don't bother it'll never be much of a problem anyway). They still face the problem of having the country having a ban on international travel of citizens, or foreign tourism, which is going to be a severe economic problem for as long as these measures are enforced.

Sooner or later, we will accept that this is not a serious issue and stop worrying about it. This extreme economic destruction is not preventing something worse. Not in Australia, not in New Zealand, and Sweden hasn't had anything all that drastic. If everyone had taken a business as usual approach we'd very obviously still have a business as usual world.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2020)

Not a snowball's chance in hell that will happen. To do so would be to admit that everything we've been through so far, all the lockdowns etc, were pointless/all for nothing. That will NEVER happen.


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Not a snowball's chance in hell that will happen. To do so would be to admit that everything we've been through so far, all the lockdowns etc, were pointless/all for nothing. That will NEVER happen.



...and our leaders are getting aroused with their new power and finding the proles easily frightened and programmable.

Economy be damned.


----------



## Junior (10 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I'm not sure if you're deliberately trying to misrepresent things or if you just haven't bothered looking at the situation, but their death rate has obviously not been constant through the entire thing (or since 2005 or whatever silly figure you may want to bring up for the sake of a disingenuous argument). Obviously at some point months ago it was zero, they let it run through the community relatively unchecked (some mitigation measures but no lockdowns, just let it run). Because they didn't try to contain it or have spotfire lockdown strategies like the Australian nonsense, it is there, it exists at a stable level, and has stabilised. At that stable level it is killing a negligible number of people (with one exceptional day on Friday where 5 deaths were recorded, but zero death days are not unusual now).
> 
> By contrast, attempting to play an eternally ongoing cat and mouse strategy where you lock everyone down in response to outbreaks then open back up when the disease is at an 'acceptable level' means no heard immunity happens, you never get a particularly big problem anyway, but you probably have more virus deaths overall and you have a perpetually retarded economy, social problems, etc.
> 
> ...




I don't understand this obsession with Sweden.  They experienced GDP growth of -8% in the 2nd quarter.  So they have way more illness and death, AND a weaker economy than Australia's.  Awesome, what an inspiration!

It's all very well 'staying open', but if people are afraid to leave their homes for fear of catching a deadly virus with no cure, and no one can visit their parents in Aged Care due to a ban on visitors, what's the point??  Better to go for elimination, and then re-open with some confidence.


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2020)

Junior said:


> I don't understand this obsession with Sweden.  They experienced GDP growth of -8% in the 2nd quarter.  So they have way more illness and death, AND a weaker economy than Australia's.  Awesome, what an inspiration!
> 
> It's all very well 'staying open', but if people are afraid to leave their homes for fear of catching a deadly virus with no cure, and no one can visit their parents in Aged Care due to a ban on visitors, what's the point??  Better to go for elimination, and then re-open with some confidence.



..only to have the virus rip through the community later anyway, so then you'll get a double negative effect on the economy.

Elimination is a pipe dream, unless of course we create fortress Australia. No one in, no one out. Including carriers of goods and supplies, so no imports no exports. Have the navy patrolling our waters and blowing the s*** out of anyone trying to arrive here by boat.

Lovely stuff, komrade. All we need then is a "Dear Leader" to complete the scenario. I hear Dan is auditioning for the job.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> No one in, no one out. Including carriers of goods and supplies, so no imports no exports.




The virus is spread by people not goods.

So confine the ship's crew to their quarters and do the unloading with local labour and appropriate precautions.


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The virus is spread by people not goods.
> 
> So confine the ship's crew to their quarters and do the unloading with local labour and appropriate precautions.



With the Gestapo at ports to ensure no fraternization? No medical evacuation, say for injuries or other non covid emergency treatment?

Let the foreign heathen die on board?

No deliveries of supplies, food, water, etc?

It can't work that way you cannot avoid human contact altogether.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2020)

Cautiously optimistic that victoria's peaked. Long way to go though.




And in completely unsurprising news: 




Kogan's bounced 6% just this morning.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2020)

Further drop today, but more deaths. 14/19 of them were old farts in nursing homes though (apparently it's finally hit the nursing homes and is now ripping through them like wildfire). 

I've noticed that the market doesn't seem to respond to deaths, only cases. That's economics for you.


----------



## Junior (10 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> ..only to have the virus rip through the community later anyway, so then you'll get a double negative effect on the economy.
> 
> Elimination is a pipe dream, unless of course we create fortress Australia. No one in, no one out. Including carriers of goods and supplies, so no imports no exports. Have the navy patrolling our waters and blowing the s*** out of anyone trying to arrive here by boat.
> 
> Lovely stuff, komrade. All we need then is a "Dear Leader" to complete the scenario. I hear Dan is auditioning for the job.




Maybe you're right.  However the evidence is that NZ so far, have shown that elimination can work.  Same with most of Australia.  We'll see.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

Lets get down to economics, well business operating and not being behold to saving a few to sacrifice many.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...r/news-story/98ba1421a11420c04b3548efcf856384

I wonder how many people would have different views if there was no Jobkeeper or Jobseeker to support them?

Tired of the crap that a life should be saved regardless of the cost, wake up, that is not reality. 

This virus is just part of the eco system, we work with it or we will destroy many lives to save a few.

The economics are quite simple, a life is not worth > $2M, if it is, let the individual pay.

Getting tired of those that live in glass houses.


----------



## Sdajii (10 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Not a snowball's chance in hell that will happen. To do so would be to admit that everything we've been through so far, all the lockdowns etc, were pointless/all for nothing. That will NEVER happen.




This sums up the problem we now have. They were wrong in such a spectacular way that they can not admit to it. They weren't just wrong, they were sold a lie. The economy has been devastated for worse than nothing. For a politician to admit they made that mistake is more or less impossible, they we must continue to suffer while they double down on their own mistake to save face.

A vaccine (it doesn't need to be effective) will probably be the way they save face. They can either pass the buck and say it's not as effective as they were promised, or say that it was all worthwhile because without the vaccine things would have been so much worse, or since it's not going to be all that bad anyway (this isn't a particularly devastating virus even with no mitigation efforts) they can say 'hooray, it's all a success which was worthwhile' and go back to not trying to horrify the nation when half a dozen people in their late 80s who have been bed ridden for six months in nursing homes die, along with an obese guy in mid 50s who was suffering from heart disease.

The elephant in the room is that these sorts of deaths do not have a material effect on the economy. The only thing harming the economy in any country in a substantial way is the measures taken, not the virus, including where no significant mitigation efforts are being used.


----------



## Sdajii (10 August 2020)

basilio said:


> I’ll finish with the famous words of Teddy Roosevelt. Words that Dan, and all our leaders, probably need right now:
> 
> *It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.
> The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood… who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
> *




By this line of thinking we should all be praising Hitler and Pol Pot.

There is a time when people do a bad enough job that criticism is valid. To blindly say that our leaders should not be criticised because they are our leaders is dangerous and stupid.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2020)

Nobody cares. We're here to talk about what WILL happen and its effects. 

You want to spew your personal opinion, take it to the bickering & whining thread.


----------



## Junior (10 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> A vaccine (it doesn't need to be effective) will probably be the way they save face. They can either pass the buck and say it's not as effective as they were promised, or say that it was all worthwhile because without the vaccine things would have been so much worse, or since it's not going to be all that bad anyway (this isn't a particularly devastating virus even with no mitigation efforts) they can say 'hooray, it's all a success which was worthwhile' and go back to not trying to horrify the nation when half a dozen people in their late 80s who have been bed ridden for six months in nursing homes die, along with an obese guy in mid 50s who was suffering from heart disease.




You seem to have quite a disdain for the elderly.

19 deaths in Melbourne in the past 24 hours.  634 are so ill with COVID they have been hospitalised, of those, 43 are in ICU.  Again, these are the stats WITH hardcore restrictions.  Those numbers would blow out very quickly if we were to pretend there is no problem.

As previously noted, my wife works in a Covid ward at Monash.  So trying to say the numbers are BS, exaggerated, COVID is just the flu etc. won't fly.  I hear first-hand stories from the hospital.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

Junior said:


> You seem to have quite a disdain for the elderly.




Come on, he does not. Read the posts, stop being so stupid. At some stage, we will all die.

19 deaths, big deal, we have a population of 4.3million in Melbourne, are those 4.3million never to die.

What do you find acceptable is the acceptable level of daily deaths for Victorian's.

Face reality.

Back to the subject, yes this virus is going to cause untold economic damage due to solely the ignorance of individuals about life.


----------



## boofhead (10 August 2020)

At the start I expected the property prices to be lower than they are now. Seems plenty of property is being sold still. Probably a combination of government support so less fire-sales (maybe they come next year) and some people with enough reserves to invest more. Seems any time there is a financial issue like recessions etc. the better off folks eventually get more ahead.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2020)

That's because the interest rate gets dumped, which makes borrowing cheaper (easier, i.e people can borrow more) and so prices of stuff like housing gets bid up. 

You halve the interest rate, people can borrow (roughly) twice as much. It's literally that simple.


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2020)

over9k said:


> That's because the interest rate gets dumped, which makes borrowing cheaper (easier, i.e people can borrow more) and so prices of stuff like housing gets bid up.
> 
> You halve the interest rate, people can borrow (roughly) twice as much. It's literally that simple.



Also the government propping up the ability for people to be able to pay or defer their mortgages, therefor no forced selling yet.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the government pull out even more measures to prop up the property market as a path remaining we don't have any other substantive economy.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2020)

You need only look at what the politicians are invested in to know what the government is going to do.


----------



## IFocus (10 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Obviously at some point months ago it was zero, they let it run through the community relatively unchecked (some mitigation measures but no lockdowns, just let it run). Because they didn't try to contain it or have spotfire lockdown strategies like the Australian




Sdajii its embarrassing what you are saying ins't and never has been the policy of the Swedish Department responsible for dealing with the virus.

Before you continue please, please read about the measures taken by the Swedes which were and still are significant.

Please also understand the levels of infection reached in Sweden based on evidence not antidote accounts as you seem intent on repeating.

Also please understand Sweden just like Australia are still exposed to a 2nd wave they do repeat do not have heard immunity.

Again the Swedish economy is toast with a very high death count unlike Taiwan which you would do well to read up on as it directly contradicts most of you positions.


----------



## Junior (10 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Come on, he does not. Read the posts, stop being so stupid. At some stage, we will all die.
> 
> 19 deaths, big deal, we have a population of 4.3million in Melbourne, are those 4.3million never to die.
> 
> ...




Well, he made a comment about 7 people in aged care dying, and making a big deal about that.  So I pointed out that 19 people have died, in one city, IN ONE DAY alone.

You say that it's a large population, and 19 is no big deal.  I agree with you, 19 is bugger all in the context of 6 million Victorians.  The reason it's only 19, is because 99% of our population have not been exposed to the virus, BECAUSE of fear of the virus, physical distancing and restrictions.

The data coming out of New York, and other areas where COVID was off the leash, show significant numbers of excess death, i.e. far more people dying, compared with the same time last year.  Clear evidence that this virus will kill.  Likewise, there are many stories of hospitals, and then morgues being overwhelmed.

I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet.  Look at the southern states in the US.  They listened to Trump tell them not to worry and to re-open, and went on about their lives.  Fast forward a matter of weeks and they are retreating back into their homes, closing back down again and experiencing more and more illness and death.

If it wasn't a big deal, we'd have doctors, nurses and swathes of people on the front-line, telling us all to calm down.  That simply isn't happening, because this is real.


----------



## qldfrog (10 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Not a snowball's chance in hell that will happen. To do so would be to admit that everything we've been through so far, all the lockdowns etc, were pointless/all for nothing. That will NEVER happen.



on this we can all agree, right or wrong, they will never admit.A given


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I'm not sure if you're deliberately trying to misrepresent things or if you just haven't bothered looking at the situation



I'm simply pointing out the maths which some are overlooking.

Yes Sweden's death rate has dramatically reduced but it did so from a level vastly higher than Australia's.

Sweden's death toll from COVID-19 thus far is about 48 times Australia's on a per capita basis. Whilst it's possible that ultimately, when all this is done, they might come out ahead but thus far they're failing rather badly. Their performance isn't simply a bit worse than Australia's, it's an order of magnitude worse.

Long term sure they might achieve a better result but thus far they sure haven't so it's wrong to claim otherwise.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

Junior said:


> The reason it's only 19, is because 99% of our population have not been exposed to the virus, BECAUSE of fear of the virus, physical distancing and restrictions.




Bullsh---t. Try 10-50% of the population has been exposed and >10% has been infected but asymptomatic


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 August 2020)

Junior said:


> I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet.



The sheer number of people who'd need to be in on the whole thing and the ideological differences between them makes it pretty much impossible that it's a hoax. 

Everyone from central banks to nurses needs to be on side in numerous countries including those with a very different world view. Not totally impossible but incredibly unlikely.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Long term sure they might achieve a better result but thus far they sure haven't so it's wrong to claim otherwise.




Of course that all depends how we measure "results" . Purely economically or are social stats like suicides due to lockups included as well ? There doesn't appear to be much data on that, I would say that there may be some cases but it can't be anywhere near the deaths due to the virus.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> on this we can all agree, right or wrong, they will never admit.A given



The world would be a much better place if that didn't apply to most things.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

Junior said:


> I just do not buy the fact, that this is some sort of hoax, which has incredibly managed to fool almost every government and healthcare system on the planet.




No hoax, it is a serious virus, it is going to kill people, just like cars, smoking (still allowed by govnuts), alcohol, fatty foods, etc etc 

It needs to be taken seriously, but it cannot be eliminated, have we been able to eradicate the flu in 100 years, NO.

So can everyone stop pretending that we can and start putting in place actions that allow society to live with it and accept it, instead of closing down society and turn fellow human against fellow human because they don't wear a face mask or decide to go for a walk after 8.00pm.

So the economic impact of the virus has been made greater due to human intervention with nature.


----------



## basilio (10 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> By this line of thinking we should all be praising Hitler and Pol Pot.
> 
> There is a time when people do a bad enough job that criticism is valid. To blindly say that our leaders should not be criticised because they are our leaders is dangerous and stupid.




The problem is Sdajii is that the totally overblown argument you and others having been running against taking COVID 9 seriously is fatally flawed.

Its fails on the hundreds of thousands of deaths and  additional serious illnesses suffered around the world. It fails on the uncontrollable spread of the disease in any situation where a number of people congregate. Weddings, funerals, parties, hotels, nightclubs, air craft, cruise ships, churches,

Anywhere, everywhere. That is the evidence.

It fails in Sweden. You clearly have never actually read the Wiki link which goes into excellent detail on the extensive measures Sweden has taken to control COVID 19 the costs and the consequences. The Swedish approach has value which can be assessed but in no universe is it a hands off, no cost , small consequence process.
*
Nothing you have ever said to date acknowledges that  reality.* Zip, Zilch. Zero

There is no playbook for this pandemic.  The response of flagrantly ignoring its consequences and letting it rip is  President Trump and President Bolsonaro  play.  We can see the ongoing consequences of that decision.

This may not be The Black Death or the 1918-9 flu. But nonetheless it's overall effects on all people and our society are *in themself c*rippling if left unchecked.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Point 1 : Its fails on the hundreds of thousands of deaths and  additional serious illnesses suffered around the world.
> Point 2 : This may not be The Black Death or the 1918-9 flu. But nonetheless it's overall effects on all people and our society are *in themself c*rippling if left unchecked.



Bas, I have edited your response to make it easy to response to as I think you are getting a little bit over alarmed.

Point 1 : In respect to world populations the current death rate is small, have a look a hunger or HIV or influenza in 3rd world countries.

Point 2: It is the same as the 1918 flu, just much milder and the world community can deal with it better.
If we allow the current crimpling economic rules, the virus will look very very mild.


----------



## qldfrog (10 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The sheer number of people who'd need to be in on the whole thing and the ideological differences between them makes it pretty much impossible that it's a hoax.
> 
> Everyone from central banks to nurses needs to be on side in numerous countries including those with a very different world view. Not totally impossible but incredibly unlikely.



not an hoax as such, just used as a leverage . has everyone forgotten H1N1?
this killed millions  (still far more than the covid has or maybe even will)
people dying were actually relatively healthy ones; young etc as the deaths were often cause by bodies defending themselves too strongly;
The answer was very very different; we all understand the initial scare for Covid, no trouble: better safe than sorry but now, 6 months later, what does justify the difference in reaction? this is where the hoax if any is;I use the term *scam *more than hoax.
This is the biggest *scam *I have lived thru, above the Gulf war weapon of mass destruction, and much more destructive for the west..but far less for irakis I agree


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> This is the biggest *scam *I have lived thru, above the Gulf war weapon of mass destruction, and much more destructive for the west..but far less for irakis I agree




Agreed


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2020)

Junior said:


> Well, he made a comment about 7 people in aged care dying, and making a big deal about that.  So I pointed out that 19 people have died, in one city, IN ONE DAY alone.
> 
> You say that it's a large population, and 19 is no big deal.  I agree with you, 19 is bugger all in the context of 6 million Victorians.  The reason it's only 19, is because 99% of our population have not been exposed to the virus, BECAUSE of fear of the virus, physical distancing and restrictions.
> 
> ...



1/ It is not a hoax.
2/ It can be a nasty virus for a minority, but for most it is not, it is overblown.
3/ it is being used by multinational political opportunists to further at particular agenda.

For me 3/ is the scariest part about all of this.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> For me 3/ is the scariest part about all of this.



If that is the case, they have done a brilliant job.


----------



## qldfrog (10 August 2020)

economic impact: PNG and gold mine there..the only activity...
I quote:
_"This is a critical time for all of us," National Pandemic Response Deputy Controller Paison Dakulala said in a statement. 

The virus escaped a testing lab in the main general hospital in Port Moresby infecting at least four health workers in mid July. Within 14 days, there would be 72 confirmed cases and two deaths._
what can I say_..._
Newcrest may not like that...today...36.25 AUD +0.17 (0.47%) wait for the paranoiac news flash and we can get a few good bargain soon..
_It comes after PNG's Ok Tedi copper and gold mine suspended operations for at least 14 days from Wednesday, after seven workers tested positive for the new coronavirus.
_


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> It needs to be taken seriously, but it cannot be eliminated, have we been able to eradicate the flu in 100 years, NO.
> 
> So can everyone stop pretending that we can and start putting in place actions that allow society to live with it and accept it




There's going to be a lot of resistance to that from all sides. I'm being pragmatic there not aiming to provoke. 

Business, medical, libertarians, socialists - none are going to want to accept a permanent change that means giving up any hope of achieving what they'd hoped for.

That's a human nature thing really. It'll be quite some time before most are willing to write things off be that medically, ideologically or financially.


----------



## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

Smurf, I agree.
But I have worked with business/owners, many for over 5 years, they are desperate to keep operating, which they cannot. They do not see a time when they will be able to operate in the future.

So we sacrificed many for a few.

The economic impact is going to be huge in Victoria at grass roots levels.

I have never been involved in a war, but for me this is a silent war, where our politicians are willing to sacrifice the good hearted people, that work hard and try to provide for the society, for the few bleating hearts that believe everything should be sunshine and lollipops and every life is savable no matter what the cost is, as long as they are not paying.


----------



## IFocus (10 August 2020)

Virus is affecting some more than others

*Alex Jones Tells His Listeners to Get Ready to Die in Fight Against New World Order*

*https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post...5vsVjoy2kuZPEXzhdLbSHR_IEngMt16Hp9_nJQmsTc9RA*


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> Virus is affecting some more than others
> 
> *Alex Jones Tells His Listeners to Get Ready to Die in Fight Against New World Order*
> 
> *https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post...5vsVjoy2kuZPEXzhdLbSHR_IEngMt16Hp9_nJQmsTc9RA*



Well....


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## Knobby22 (10 August 2020)

The future.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I have never been involved in a war, but for me this is a silent war, where our politicians are willing to sacrifice the good hearted people, that work hard and try to provide for the society, for the few bleating hearts that believe everything should be sunshine and lollipops and every life is savable no matter what the cost is, as long as they are not paying.




I personally wouldn't take it that far (though of course you have every right to) but my underlying concern, the "big" one, is this really.

If I skydive, ski, ride horses, ride motorbikes or whatever well again there are risks in that something could go wrong which injures or kills me. Known risks which I can choose to take or not take.

If I fail to exercise, eat too much sugar, smoke or whatever well then there are known consequences from that from a statistical perspective. Further, I can choose to exercise or not exercise, smoke or not smoke, and sugar is at least largely avoidable if one chooses to avoid it. We can scale that up to 1000, 10,000, 1 million or however many people and say that if they all smoke regularly or don't exercise or whatever then x number of them will die because of that and y will suffer a non-death but significant health consequence and z will avoid meaningful impacts.

Now the problem with COVID-19 is that nobody seems willing to answer the question. If 1 million people are all infected then what happens?

How many die in the short term?

How many die in the longer term?

How many suffer a non-death health impact? Of those, what are the impacts and when do they occur?

There's the big problem, it's an unknown. A "let it rip" approach might end up killing a hundred unfortunate people and beyond that really just knocks people out of their misery who were going to die anyway. It's the equivalent of two buses running into each other and killing everyone on board.

Or it might be signing us up for another $100 billion in health care costs plus double that in other costs for years to come as it brings whatever debilitating impact to the population.

It would be a real tragedy if for example it turns out that (using hypothetical but not impossible examples) we need to ensure any woman who's had it never has a child otherwise it'll be badly impacted. Or if it turns out that it knocks 20+ years off average life expectancy. Or whatever.

Now those are purely hypothetical examples and it could well be that there's nothing to worry about. There's the problem - if someone could properly answer that question, as to exactly what the impacts are, well then a far more sensible discussion becomes straightforward.

Until that time though it's basically gambling. It's akin to discussing buying shares in whatever company but all we have is a price chart which goes back 6 months with a disclaimer on it that volume data only includes a random selection of trades and is this totally inaccurate. We have no useful fundamental information about the company, we don't know who any of the directors are indeed we don't even know if it has an actual business or it's just a wannabe. We are however considering forcing most of the population, business and government to put literally all of their assets into this venture. That could end either brilliantly or in catastrophic disaster.

If the facts were known then, depending on what they turn out to be, I may well jump to the "let it rip" view. Doing so without knowing the implications would however be one hell of a gamble from which there's no going back.

That said, I don't doubt that the economic aspects are also becoming a disaster. On that front I'll observe that how it ends up has something in common with WW2. If we go down the "Germany" track and start over with new industries and so on then ultimately we'll emerge stronger because of this despite a major setback in the short term. If we go down the "UK" track and try and prop up what were already tired old business models into the future then we're in for a world of pain for a long time to come.


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## satanoperca (10 August 2020)

Smurf nice considered post.
All i will say it just as much a gamble closing down the economy without knowing all facts. Decisions are a 2 edge sword between what you know and what you dont.


----------



## IFocus (10 August 2020)

This covers a lot of ground raising very uncomfortable truths but for those that think about the future of the US and how it got to here its very good read with plenty of numbers.

Below is just a insight comparing Canada to the US re covid response.


"Over the last months, a quip has circulated on the internet suggesting that to live in Canada today is like owning an apartment above a meth lab. Canada is no perfect place, but it has handled the COVID crisis well, notably in British Columbia, where I live. Vancouver is just three hours by road north of Seattle, where the U.S. outbreak began. Half of Vancouver’s population is Asian, and typically dozens of flights arrive each day from China and East Asia. Logically, it should have been hit very hard, but the health care system performed exceedingly well. Throughout the crisis, testing rates across Canada have been consistently five times that of the U.S. On a per capita basis, Canada has suffered half the morbidity and mortality. For every person who has died in British Columbia, 44 have perished in Massachusetts, a state with a comparable population that has reported more COVID cases than all of Canada. As of July 30th, even as rates of COVID infection and death soared across much of the United States, with 59,629 new cases reported on that day alone, hospitals in British Columbia registered a total of just five COVID patients."

*The Unraveling of America  *
Anthropologist Wade Davis on how COVID-19 signals the end of the American era


https://www.rollingstone.com/politi...I2U3PO75Jd_rZJ_1AAFfsIAu93TnQfmrNKFu5xWJo7Ahc


----------



## wabullfrog (10 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Bullsh---t. Try 10-50% of the population has been exposed and >10% has been infected but asymptomatic




The >10% has been infected, is that for USA or Australia?


----------



## qldfrog (11 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I personally wouldn't take it that far (though of course you have every right to) but my underlying concern, the "big" one, is this really.
> 
> If I skydive, ski, ride horses, ride motorbikes or whatever well again there are risks in that something could go wrong which injures or kills me. Known risks which I can choose to take or not take.
> 
> ...



Covid is not exactly a brand new extra terrestrial virus, just the latest of many corona viruses; it is not 100% sure, but you can take a fair bet that overall it will behave like the others, which means: mostly harmless if you recover..but not fully: even flu can destroy you well past the initial infection;
relatively low death rate..obviously always too high but we are talking 1 percent , not 40 or 60%, highly contagious and wo effective vaccine in sight  with mutation expected and ending up as a seasonal virus .
And to scare people : it is not and will not be the first corona virus to surface...
In the same way that you are not 100% sure you will brake after pressing on the brake pedal, you assume it will because that is by far the highest probability: seen that, done that..so is this virus;
It is not impossible but highly improbable that it will behave differently from its cousins
In a twisted way, I think it is far less dangerous than any avian virus which could jump to human and stay efficient there, and this is just a waiting game for that one.Not impressed with that COVID precedent for any future real disastrous epidemy;
Your last point is interesting about the new industry vs rebuild old; valid point indeed, if this is what that Reset/scam/emergency is all about? 
In Europe, suppression of fossil fuel and prohibition of transport is an advertised aim in the post covid
no plane car and even train transport reduced
.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Your last point is interesting about the new industry vs rebuild old; valid point indeed, if this is what that Reset/scam/emergency is all about?




Regardless of the arguments for or against the severity of the virus, lockdowns etc I can definitely see an advantage being gained by those countries or regions within countries which correctly identify the future and grab it rather than trying to revive something that's going to struggle at best.

If we go back almost 30 years to the last recession then the "correct" approach was to embrace a future which was very different to the past prior to that time.

A smart move then was ditch anything relating to manufacturing, conglomerates, media, anything formal and so on and instead embrace services, outsourcing, IT and anything casual.

We can see differences there even within Australia. Eg Adelaide and Perth were virtually identical on most measures 30 years ago but one with its reliance on manufacturing has struggled relative to the other in a resources-driven economy. That's not a prediction for the future, if manufacturing revives then the reverse may well be true, but it's an observation of what happened last time.

If an industry has run aground due to COVID-19 and isn't going to do well in the new era then instead of pouring a fortune into trying to prop up a dead concept it would be far better to invest in something that's going to be a growing thing in the future.

It's like an old car really. If it's roadworthy and runs then continuing to drive it is one thing but if it gets damaged well then spending serious $ repairing it doesn't make sense.


----------



## SirRumpole (11 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If we go down the "Germany" track and start over with new industries and so on then ultimately we'll emerge stronger because of this despite a major setback in the short term.




Yes , Germany and Japan started again with the resources of the UK and the US among others where  less generous victors would have been owning their productive resources and using the income to build up their own industrial base. But I guess the US got a few rocket scientists so that's ok. 

However, that's water under the bridge but the lesson is pretty clear, use the crisis to redevelop our own capacity and strengthen our supply chains and not rely as heavily on others for basic needs. What will be interesting is that if a vaccine is developed will the big pharma companies "share" it around or wring as much profits out of it as they can ? That will give an indication as to how much we can rely on others in times of need. I suspect that if the US controls any vaccine then under Trump at least they will profiteer, probably the same in the UK and the fact that Morrison is pretty well pleading for caring and sharing indicates that we are sadly deficient in our abilities to be a large scale vaccine producer.


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## qldfrog (11 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Regardless of the arguments for or against the severity of the virus, lockdowns etc I can definitely see an advantage being gained by those countries or regions within countries which correctly identify the future and grab it rather than trying to revive something that's going to struggle at best.
> 
> If we go back almost 30 years to the last recession then the "correct" approach was to embrace a future which was very different to the past prior to that time.
> 
> ...



Agree it is a shame the last PM to try this faced a push back from both own party and the voters
Whatever you think of Malcolm,its reform and economic agenda pushing for entrepreneurship and startuo was smeared 
 The same party is still in power and if it was just the person,well the focus could have ben kept
This country has a fundamental issue with success.so does not want to sée entrepreneurs he a great bloke with an apprentice, a bastard boss if he has more than 5 or drive a car worth more than twice the average ute.
This would have to change and i do not see this happening with a Universal Income as we de facto have


----------



## qldfrog (11 August 2020)

But a real crisis could make it.
In a disguise,this virus mismanagement could be our chance
Bring us to the ground to rebuilt before we get economically and mentally too weak for rebirth


----------



## Junior (11 August 2020)

Are the NT completely killing off tourism for at least the next year and a half?  Why would he put such a long time-frame on it, when there are so many unknowns?  Imagine being a tourism operator in NT.  This is extremely draconian.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...s/news-story/d280966f5230a77181525f1b59987ffc


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## Dona Ferentes (11 August 2020)

and for something more cheery:

_*The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down*_

https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/


----------



## qldfrog (11 August 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and for something more cheery:
> 
> _*The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down*_
> 
> https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/



A great boost for the day DF :-(


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 August 2020)

you are welcome


----------



## basilio (11 August 2020)

How many of the millions of people currently working from home will ever get back to their office ?
How many will keep their jobs even if COVID settles down ?

This links backs to Dona's article on the risks of a global depression arising from COVID. (That was an excellent article.)

*Coronavirus work from home might become work done overseas*
Forced away from city centres to slow the spread of coronavirus, the work-from-home revolution has shown many jobs can be done from the suburbs as easily as they were in humming office buildings housing thousands of workers.

Key points:

*Key points:*

Business process outsourcing (BPO) is where parts of a company's core operations are outsourced to third-party providers
Economists warn that many businesses will realise they can operate with fewer workers or perhaps cheaper workers located overseas
However, some companies are onshoring rather than offshoring during the COVID-19 crisis, with Westpac bringing back 1,000 call centre jobs from overseas
Could the shift be the change that regional Australia has long waited for? Or does it mark the moment Australians have to compete in the global market for jobs, with equally qualified but much cheaper workers?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/covid-work-from-home-might-become-work-done-overseas/12542354


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## satanoperca (11 August 2020)

Basilio,
Lets look at it reasonably, working from home you require :

A chair and desk, no doubt made in China
A screen and computer - made in China or South Korea
Software - maybe the US, windows or OS
Business software - gsuite or microsoft - Offshore again.
An internet connect - finally something rather local
Search engines - mainly Google
Now lets look at what type of work that can be done in regional Australia or suburbs:

Admin work - offshore to the Philippines - matches closely with our time zone and english speaking
Graphic Design - little harder as it requires creativity, by try Mexico, Italy, Germany, US
Software Development - take your pick of countries that this can be done in.
VA/PA - again plenty of countries to work with, I prefer the Philipines myself
Engineering - soviet states, Russia, Ukraine
Architecture/drafting - architecture
IT support - take your pick again
Ecommerce marketing, Paid (PPC) and SEO (onpage and offpage) - again there are several countries that can do this for less than Australian's.
Accountancy - my pick is Malaysia for various reason
Communication tools - Skype, Hangouts, Zoom - ah again overseas companies

One that only developers use : JIRA, Australian company, all payments made to overseas bank accounts.

So where I am coming from, anything that can be done at home in Australia can just as easily be done overseas.

The only reason why bosses have not always chosen to offshore services, is their lack of willingness and skills to manage remote teams, BUT this is going to change due to the shut downs.

Why do I say all of this, as I live it.

Backend development team in Hanoi- Vietnam
Frontend development team in Ho Chi Minh City - Vietnam
UI/UX design team in Ho Chi Minh City
Support team for word press and ecommerce platforms - Bangladesh
Virtual Assistant - Philippines
Off Page SEO employees (2) - Philiphines
Graphic Design team - India
Where do I need to work/physically - anywhere, just need my trusty laptop and an internet connection.

This has been going on for years, but the change/trend is going to increase significantly in Australia due to the virus.


----------



## wayneL (11 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Basilio,
> Lets look at it reasonably, working from home you require :
> 
> A chair and desk, no doubt made in China
> ...



Paul Keating will eventually become canonized as  prophet... Banana Republic, indeed.


----------



## over9k (11 August 2020)

basilio said:


> How many of the millions of people currently working from home will ever get back to their office ?
> How many will keep their jobs even if COVID settles down ?
> 
> This links backs to Dona's article on the risks of a global depression arising from COVID. (That was an excellent article.)
> ...



Yeah but we all know that equal qualification does not mean equal skill. You know, on account of all the foreign students who simply buy their degrees.

I know more than a few people that have stuff done overseas only as a cost thing - in their words, it's "a good thing they're so cheap because they're pretty hopeless". Indian accountants come to mind. 

It won't take long before they simply aren't cheap enough to be worth the headache. Even chinese wages are like 10x what they were a generation ago.


----------



## satanoperca (11 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah but we all know that equal qualification does not mean equal skill. You know, on account of all the foreign students who simply buy their degrees.
> 
> I know more than a few people that have stuff done overseas only as a cost thing - in their words, it's "a good thing they're so cheap because they're pretty hopeless". Indian accountants come to mind.
> 
> It won't take long before they simply aren't cheap enough to be worth the headache. Even chinese wages are like 10x what they were a generation ago.




You are just a grass hopper.

Tell your friends, they are dickheads, it is not about price, it is about quality and willingness to work.

I hate white Australians, dumb and naive. I am a racist towards white people and their inability to understand cultures for doing trade.


----------



## over9k (11 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> You are just a grass hopper.
> 
> Tell your friends, they are dickheads, it is not about price, it is about quality and willingness to work.
> 
> I hate white Australians, dumb and naive. I am a racist towards white people and their inability to understand cultures for doing trade.



Everybody knows that the foreign students purchase their degrees. Hell, I even had a lecturer tell us (off the record) that he's failed foreign students only to have his superiors come in over the top of him and pass them. ****, four corners even did a big thing on this a while ago when a few whistleblowers came forward raising the alarm about this happening for MEDICAL DEGREES. 

Get as angry as you like, I've clearly hit a nerve for a reason


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (11 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Everybody knows that the foreign students purchase their degrees. Hell, I even had a lecturer tell us (off the record) that he's failed foreign students only to have his superiors come in over the top of him and pass them. ****, four corners even did a big thing on this a while ago when a few whistleblowers came forward raising the alarm about this happening for MEDICAL DEGREES.
> 
> Get as angry as you like, I've clearly hit a nerve for a reason




Just looking back at some of nonsense that you have said:

You said: that we were approaching winter when we were in the middle of winter.

You said: that gold is measured in USD when it is measured in weight.

You said: that China had never been a superpower when China has been a superpower.

You said: that people don't need a formal academic qualification and now you're complaining about medical degrees.

This really is beyond funny now; it is sad.

Go get some help, you really need it.


----------



## IFocus (11 August 2020)

over9k said:


> I know more than a few people that have stuff done overseas only as a cost thing - in their words, it's "a good thing they're so cheap because they're pretty hopeless". Indian accountants come to mind.




My own experience with Indian Elect Engineers and process control programmers was that they were 1st class still not to say there are others that are not


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> In a disguise,this virus mismanagement could be our chance
> Bring us to the ground to rebuilt before we get economically and mentally too weak for rebirth



In the context of this thread, I'm seeing that what we can gain is to identify the things which are likely to increase and decrease going forward so as to invest accordingly.

Some of those changes may be "natural" reactions to the virus and government response, others may be brought about due to community or government pressure to do something about the economy etc.

Interested to hear everyone's thoughts but some things I have in mind that we'll see less of are:

"Education" as a big business.

International tourism as an export industry that's seen as an alternative to some other form of economic activity.

Outsourcing in general. The risks have been highlighted well and truly from supply chains to security contractors.

Offshoring things like call centers. That one's driven mostly by community perception and pressure. Any business with an offshore call center has a cross against it so far as employing Australians and so on is concerned and a call center is something that's rather hard to hide that it's not local due to accents etc.

Big cities and apartments. For those in a position to choose where to live, Melbourne and Sydney now seem far less attractive than they did not too long ago and so does the concept of living in an apartment tower anywhere.

Free trade - wasn't really happening anyway and personally I think it's well and truly stuffed at this point.

FIFO - Another risk exposed especially when it's between states. FIFO from Perth to a mine in WA is one thing and will continue but FIFO from Launceston to a corporate job in Melbourne is a risk that has now been made rather obvious if that job can't be done remotely.

China - Reliance there is another risk that has been laid bare for all to see. Not one that's easily solved but I expect there'll be attempts to do so.

I'm thinking we'll see more:

Processing of minerals and so on. Already seems to be some movement there to limited extent and it's an obvious thing for governments to push.

A "buy local" approach from governments and also big corporates wanting to be seen as socially responsible.

A general push from government that anything deemed critical be sourced locally where possible or at least from multiple overseas suppliers and preferably those countries deemed "friendly".

Infrastructure - the most obvious way to put people to work that governments can orchestrate and which has at least some long term value is building infrastructure.

Office work done from places that aren't big office towers in Sydney or Melbourne. Having a concentration of staff all in one city is a risk that's one thing. Reality that some of the best employees will be looking for opportunities that don't involve getting on crowded trains to a job in the CBD of a large city gives business a strong incentive to find ways to may other approaches work. If they don't, the competition will.

Real risk management. All of a sudden pretty much everyone understands that "very unlikely to happen" is not a valid reason to dismiss any risk and that "consequence if it did happen" is key to identifying where to focus effort. That changes the debate on all those things which have been dismissed as "unlikely" - that always was missing the point in a situation where we're outright stuffed beyond belief if it does happen. Fuel supply disruption is one, military threats are another.

Just my thoughts which I'm putting here to prompt discussion. No doubt I'll be wrong about some of it at least......


----------



## SirRumpole (11 August 2020)

Relevant to Smurf's last post is the just in time supply line theory which is cracking under the weight of covid.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...heory-coronavirus-may-prompt-rethink/12529506


----------



## over9k (11 August 2020)

Infrastructure spending. Governments always, always, ALWAYS spend on infrastructure when economies go bad. Lots of it has already been announced. 

The thing is that china has an absolutely absurd oversupply of steel at the moment so it's not going to stimulate local steel industry. Concrete and all the other inputs, that I can see. 

Caterpillar bounced on trump's announcement of his infrastructure program, but it still needs to pass congress.


----------



## qldfrog (12 August 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/covid-work-from-home-might-become-work-done-overseas/12542354
Nice reality check


----------



## satanoperca (12 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Basilio,
> Lets look at it reasonably, working from home you require :
> 
> A chair and desk, no doubt made in China
> ...




Frog, thanks for supporting my statement.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Nice reality check




I think one thing to come out of all this as governments scramble to put people back to work is the prospect of protectionism.

Nothing more to say really - I can foresee it happening and probably in a very across the board sort of manner.


----------



## sptrawler (13 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think one thing to come out of all this as governments scramble to put people back to work is the prospect of protectionism.
> 
> Nothing more to say really - I can foresee it happening and probably in a very across the board sort of manner.



That won't hurt Australia at all, in reality we have suffered most from globalisation IMO.


----------



## jbocker (13 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That won't hurt Australia at all, in reality we have suffered most from globalisation IMO.




.. benefited  ..suffered.. ..reliance .. uh oh where from here?


----------



## jbocker (13 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-11/covid-work-from-home-might-become-work-done-overseas/12542354
> Nice reality check



OK What?... wasn't work already being done overseas???? Its coming back in a lot of cases for different reasons. 
Consider that the work is not all being done at home for a start and I REALLY think big corps ABSOLUTELY DONT want work done at home. Fall off your office chair 10.30 in the morning while you are 'working from home' you break some significant bones you burn down your house, whatever. Who is gonna pay?
It might be cheap overseas  for wages, but maybe more so for responsibility, management and liability costs.
Are office environments going to die. I dont think so.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 August 2020)

Long term this place will likely be out of business since paper's a structurally declining industry.

Short term though well it seems rather crazy to still be importing product when there's an established Australian manufacturer sending their workers home at taxpayer expense due to a drop in orders due to the pandemic.

Fully operational, the mill's production capacity is about 290,000 tonnes of paper per annum.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...irus-pandemic/12541810?WT.ac=localnews_hobart


----------



## qldfrog (13 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> OK What?... wasn't work already being done overseas???? Its coming back in a lot of cases for different reasons.
> Consider that the work is not all being done at home for a start and I REALLY think big corps ABSOLUTELY DONT want work done at home. Fall off your office chair 10.30 in the morning while you are 'working from home' you break some significant bones you burn down your house, whatever. Who is gonna pay?
> It might be cheap overseas  for wages, but maybe more so for responsibility, management and liability costs.
> Are office environments going to die. I dont think so.



@jboker too heavy in gold and a bit upset by yesterday's market? 
many here and elsewhere are seeing COVID as the signal for an end of  relocations, O/S call centers etc..I am highly skeptical, just another nail in our inflated unbalanced economy coffin is my view and that article spell it better than I could


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @jboker too heavy in gold and a bit upset by yesterday's market?
> many here and elsewhere are seeing COVID as the signal for an end of  relocations, O/S call centers etc..I am highly skeptical, just another nail in our inflated unbalanced economy coffin is my view and that article spell it better than I could



My take on all of this is *Ask the Virus.
*
And of course it is a wise and nonsensical question at the same time. It is a good question, as there is no answer. It can be extended to the economy, worldwide and local, and to stocks.

The answer is : *Only the virus knows. *Going further there is obviously no answer at present. No treatments. No vaccine or hope of one apart from Vladimir Vladimirovich's Russian borshch designed to get up the nose of the USA.

So as I said in a long ago post in March. Trade with longer time data. If you trade monthly use quarterly data, trade weekly use monthly data. All the rest is noise. I usually trade on 3 monthly charts for my SMSF, and am now primarily using yearly or three yearly. And I'm buying. If the charts or prices turn, I'll cut my losses. 

Books will be written and Volatility 101 in economic and stock courses will be standard pre reading. Future generations will say, wasn't it a good time to have both survived the virus and thrived. If one does. 

gg


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## SirRumpole (13 August 2020)

I wonder how much money the taxpayers are wasting translating things for those people too lazy to learn English in an English speaking country.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...lated-to-nonsense-in-other-languages/12550520


----------



## jbocker (13 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I wonder how much money the taxpayers are wasting translating things for those people too lazy to learn English in an English speaking country.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...lated-to-nonsense-in-other-languages/12550520



Very often just as confusing in English. Spin-lish, Fake-lish, PC-lish, Trump-lish.


----------



## jbocker (13 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> @jboker too heavy in gold and a bit upset by yesterday's market?



Nah not gold too heavy in the reds.


----------



## satanoperca (13 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I wonder how much money the taxpayers are wasting translating things for those people too lazy to learn English in an English speaking country.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...lated-to-nonsense-in-other-languages/12550520




You mean something like this :

Mi chiedo quanti soldi stanno sprecando i contribuenti per tradurre cose per quelle persone troppo pigre per imparare l'inglese in un paese di lingua inglese.

Интересно, сколько денег налогоплательщики тратят зря на переводы для тех людей, которые слишком ленивы, чтобы учить английский в англоязычной стране.

Jeg spekulerer på, hvor mange penge skatteyderne spilder på at oversætte ting for disse mennesker, der er for dovne til at lære engelsk i et engelsktalende land.

Tôi tự hỏi những người đóng thuế đã lãng phí bao nhiêu tiền để dịch những thứ cho những người quá lười học tiếng Anh ở một nước nói tiếng Anh.

Sorry struggling with polish but :

Zastanawiam się, ile pieniędzy podatnicy marnują na tłumaczenia dla ludzi zbyt leniwych, by uczyć się angielskiego w kraju anglojęzycznym.


----------



## SirRumpole (13 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> You mean something like this :
> 
> Mi chiedo quanti soldi stanno sprecando i contribuenti per tradurre cose per quelle persone troppo pigre per imparare l'inglese in un paese di lingua inglese.
> 
> ...





Google prevod je vrlo koristan zar ne?


----------



## moXJO (13 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I wonder how much money the taxpayers are wasting translating things for those people too lazy to learn English in an English speaking country.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...lated-to-nonsense-in-other-languages/12550520



They probably just used google translate which doesn't really work. Most foreign speakers are well supported through various Facebook groups and the like.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> many here and elsewhere are seeing COVID as the signal for an end of relocations, O/S call centers etc..I am highly skeptical, just another nail in our inflated unbalanced economy coffin is my view and that article spell it better than I could



I think there's going to be differences regionally in how it all pans out.

Long story short it's NSW and Vic which I see struggling most.

Qld, NT, WA will benefit from renewed interest in domestic tourism whilst resource and agricultural industries carry on regardless.

Tas and SA will benefit from any move to produce things locally indeed both states are already seeing some renewed interest in heavy industry. Tas will suffer a loss of international tourism, cruise ships particularly, but growth in domestic tourism will likely offset that in due course although it's a crisis in the short term given that tourism is ~17% of employment in the island state. Meanwhile agriculture, mining etc in both states carries on regardless.

Only today it was announced that Sanjeev Gupta, a man South Australians will be familiar with, has signed a deal to buy the Tasmanian Electro-Metallurgical Co (TEMCO) smelter in Tas. Key point being he's got a use for its silico-manganese, ferro-manganese and sinter production in his other ventures and he's got the needed capital to invest in it.

Sydney and Melbourne with their city-focused economies and so on are where the real problem lies in my view. That sort of thing is being outright smashed by all this with no easy solution. The other states at least have some light on the horizon despite the short term drama. Regional NSW and Vic aren't so affected, but could end up being dragged down by what's happening in their respective cities etc.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 August 2020)

moXJO said:


> They probably just used google translate which doesn't really work.



Yeah, I discovered that in France once.

Tried to buy a chicken roll for lunch. Ended up with a fish instead.


----------



## satanoperca (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Yeah, I discovered that in France once.
> 
> Tried to buy a chicken roll for lunch. Ended up with a fish instead.




But did it taste like chicken?


----------



## SirRumpole (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Yeah, I discovered that in France once.
> 
> Tried to buy a chicken roll for lunch. Ended up with a fish instead.




You should have asked for cheese instead.


----------



## Sdajii (14 August 2020)

basilio said:


> You clearly have never actually read the Wiki link which goes into excellent detail on the extensive measures Sweden has taken to control COVID 19 the costs and the consequences. The Swedish approach has value which can be assessed but in no universe is it a hands off, no cost , small consequence process.




It's so weird that when I like the way Sweden handled it they respond with "Sweden didn't completely ignore the virus". Yes. I know. I don't think we should completely ignore it.

Why is it so difficult to imagine that maybe I know something about the thing I say I like? Why do you need to imagine that think the only alternative to absurd overreaction is complete and utterly unconditional apathy?

It's possible to take an appropriate level of action without going overboard. Not going overboard does not require zero effort. The potential responses exist in a complete spectrum, not a dichotomy between zero and insane destructive overreaction.


----------



## Sdajii (14 August 2020)

Junior said:


> You seem to have quite a disdain for the elderly.




If this is true and we use your line of thinking, you have quite a disdain for the other 7 or so billion people on the planet.


----------



## Sdajii (14 August 2020)

In case anyone wants to look at how devastating this virus is to the economy when you don't worry about it, NZ, the poster child for having eliminated the virus and being virus free, supposedly had it out of the community for over 100 days. Then they realised it had been there the whole time. One person was a bit sick, found to have it, people close to her were tested (who weren't even sickly) and some had it too. 

It's literally so trivial that it can go unnoticed for over 100 days.

Lockdowns which destroy livelihoods, businesses, families, ways of life, etc... tell me if that has a tangible effect on the economy.

By the by, everyone was blaming me for this thread going off topic. I haven't posted in this thread all week (between Monday morning and now on Friday afternoon) and it's more off topic than ever, to the point where posting this, on topic, feels like I'm taking the thread off topic.


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If this is true and we use your line of thinking, you have quite a disdain for the other 7 or so billion people on the planet.



Mic drop of the day, right there.


----------



## basilio (14 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If this is true and we use your line of thinking, you have quite a disdain for the other 7 or so billion people on the planet.




Unfortunately Sdajii it is you has a disdain for the other 7 Billion people on the plant.
COVID affects everyone. The argument that young people are not/only slightly affected is just not correct.

Yes one might take further precautions to protect the more vulnerable. But the illness has  serious impact on people at all levels.


----------



## wayneL (14 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Unfortunately Sdajii it is you has a disdain for the other 7 Billion people on the plant.
> COVID affects everyone. The argument that young people are not/only slightly affected is just not correct.
> 
> Yes one might take further precautions to protect the more vulnerable. But the illness has  serious impact on people at all levels.



Cites? Including actual data and statistics please.

Additionally could you please compare those statistics to the run-of-the-mill epidemics that reflect humanity such as influenza A

I actually know to people that have had the virus, one and his twenties one in his late 50s. Both have recovered completely without any ill-effects whatsoever. I realised that that is a sample size with a grand total of 2, but if we examine the effects of covid with a statistical bent we will probably find that that is pretty typical, notwithstanding the right tail out on about 2 or 3 sigmas.


----------



## Sdajii (14 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Unfortunately Sdajii it is you has a disdain for the other 7 Billion people on the plant.
> COVID affects everyone. The argument that young people are not/only slightly affected is just not correct.
> 
> Yes one might take further precautions to protect the more vulnerable. But the illness has  serious impact on people at all levels.




Utter nonsense. We now know that the majority of people don't even show symptoms, and the vast majority of people who do show symptoms only have mild symptoms.

The lockdowns and economic devastation have a far, far greater impact on the vast, vast majority of people in this world than the virus does. To deny this is to deny the most obvious of realities.

If this was about saving lives or anything like that, we'd be focussing on alcohol use, drug use, obesity, etc. Being overweight is a far greater health risk than this virus, yet we are telling people to love their body at any size, etc etc, while the obesity epidemic continues unabated.


----------



## basilio (14 August 2020)

There have been repeated posts outlining the long term effects of COVID on a significant number of people who have been infected.  These issues are important from  an economic perspective 
On top of that this disease is still only 9 months old. There is a long tail.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...-long-and-medium-term-health-effects/12499436
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/what-are-the-long-term-health-risks-post-covid-19
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/12/after-covid19-mental-neurological-effects-smolder/


----------



## satanoperca (14 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Unfortunately Sdajii it is you has a disdain for the other 7 Billion people on the plant.



Bas, you provide to the conversation/discussion, but when you make stupid statements, it makes all the good discussion you have provided go to waste.

Sdaji has not once, said or insulated that he doesn't care about all of the people on this earth.

Can you please stop being so abrupt, it doesn't help with the discussion.


----------



## wabullfrog (14 August 2020)

Link to some CDC estimates on previous Flu seasons.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html


----------



## satanoperca (14 August 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> Link to some CDC estimates on previous Flu seasons.
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html




Wabullfrog, what you doing, trying to present facts, we cannot have that in society anymore, fear is all the must reign.

"CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season1."

So if these facts are correct, and we have had over 100 years for the human body to build resistance to the influenza virus, Covid is not that bad, bad, but not world-destroying.

And to be even more none politically correct, how many people in Australia that have died from this virus are :
1. Above the average life expectancy
2. Had an underlying condition that contributed to the death
3. We fat, lazy and didn't look after the vessel, their body

So the naysayers are voicing their thoughts, that I should give up my freedoms for the above.


----------



## wabullfrog (14 August 2020)

The other side of the coin is currently the US has around 170,000 COVID attributed deaths & they are yet to experience COVID during their "Flu Season". The first wave in the US caught the tail end of it.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

I do wonder what will happen in the approaching Northern Winter.

Really hoping that treatment will get to the stage we can revert to a "normal" life quickly.


----------



## satanoperca (14 August 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> The other side of the coin is currently the US has around 170,000 COVID attributed deaths & they are yet to experience COVID during their "Flu Season". The first wave in the US caught the tail end of it.
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm
> 
> ...




While I don't want anyone to die, well actually for the sack of saving this planet we need approx 2 billion people to die before us human (bacteria of the planet) consume it, but that is for another discussion.

If one wants to compare influenza to covid, influenza killed a lot more people at the time and covid has today, all things are relative.


----------



## IFocus (14 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> If one wants to compare influenza to covid, influenza killed a lot more people at the time and covid has today, all things are relative.




Comparing death rates between a flu season and the current situation with the Covid virus lacks an equal  basis.

The actions taken for the flu don't equate the actions taken for Covid.

A equivalence I would image would have to start with a let it rip response for Covid, plus accumulated deaths as a results of health system overloads due to unavailable hospital spaces etc just as a starter.

Also with hospitals in overload comes a decrease in survival rates as seen in the US (44% verses Aust 85%). 

BTW all of the above has been modelled very accurately verified by the models used to early on for the responses in Australia. 

All comments I have seen failed (not you Sat) to say how they would control the virus if not using the infectious diseases experts current directions. Australia has many that have worked on the front lines of ebola, sars and mers.

Maybe the entire infectious disease community have a plan to take over the world?


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Lockdowns which destroy livelihoods, businesses, families, ways of life, etc... tell me if that has a tangible effect on the economy.



It could be argued that the situation has exposed fundamental deficiencies in "the economy".

We live in a society, the economy is a part of that but only a part. If a few % drop in GDP results in people literally ending up dead then that's akin to saying that someone locking themselves out of their cabin results in the ship sinking. It has exposed a serious flaw in the system.

To borrow from Warren Buffett's well known quote, I suspect there's rather a lot of people who are indeed swimming naked and who are doing the most screaming about the situation.

Exclusive reliance on China combined with "just in time" delivery - anyone with even the most basic knowledge of history could see that was going to blow up someday and the only question was about the detail.

There are many innocent victims of all this, both the virus and the government response to it, I don't doubt. On the other hand it's giving the tree a well overdue pruning and ridding it of quite a bit of dead wood and the associated termites. Ultimately that'll save it in the long term despite the short term hit.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> But did it taste like chicken?



Nope - but I've no idea what sort of fish it was.


----------



## Sdajii (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It could be argued that the situation has exposed fundamental deficiencies in "the economy".
> 
> We live in a society, the economy is a part of that but only a part. If a few % drop in GDP results in people literally ending up dead then that's akin to saying that someone locking themselves out of their cabin results in the ship sinking. It has exposed a serious flaw in the system.
> 
> ...




Telling people they can no longer have their business, or job, or forcing people to be unable to travel, etc etc etc, is not exposing a weakness, it is creating destruction.

It's absurd that you would try to spin things to that extent.


----------



## satanoperca (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Nope - but I've no idea what sort of fish it was.



But it all tastes like chicken, except blue or yellow fin tuna raw.


----------



## SirRumpole (14 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Telling people they can no longer have their business, or job, or forcing people to be unable to travel, etc etc etc, is not exposing a weakness, it is creating destruction.
> 
> It's absurd that you would try to spin things to that extent.




It certainly is exposing a weakness, that of dependence on foreign supply lines for essential items like PPE and vaccines and other manufactured items.

The fact that we could get a substantial face mask manufacturing up and running so quickly shows that we have a capability in these areas but are too complacent to support this, preferring to rely on foreign suppliers.

Hopefully we have learned a lesson.


----------



## qldfrog (14 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Telling people they can no longer have their business, or job, or forcing people to be unable to travel, etc etc etc, is not exposing a weakness, it is creating destruction.
> 
> It's absurd that you would try to spin things to that extent.



While i favor dead wood cutting and the long needed shake @Smurf1976 i have to agree with @Sdajii that the current situation is more a fully artificial crisis with day to day change of the rules.in such case, no business but public services is left alive.
Jobkeeper will prop dying ones, jobseeker prevents the supply of workforce.
It is not an efficiency selection, more a cash reserve one so favouring big business, removing  starting competition and giving more room for favoritism and corruption
Not exactly the good shake uo.
It could but is not here or in France for the places i follow, maybe in some parts of the US with less gov intervention but otherwise it is a field day for the big fishes: a long term economic nightmare imho.but would be very happy to be proven wrong


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Telling people they can no longer have their business, or job, or forcing people to be unable to travel, etc etc etc, is not exposing a weakness, it is creating destruction.



You know exactly what I'm referring to.

If any business is depending on a single supplier on the other side of the world and has no inventory of whatever they need then they're a sitting duck for disruption. They gambled and lost.

If it wasn't a pandemic which brought it unstuck then it would have been something else in due course. Living hand to mouth is always risky and best avoided - hence someone invented the idea of a warehouse and of supply chain diversity and so on which unfortunately many have ignored in favour of taking the risk.


----------



## SirRumpole (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If it wasn't a pandemic which brought it unstuck then it would have been something else in due course.




It was already happening  in the stoush with China. Sure it was exacerbated by Morrison's remarks over covid, but China was already limiting their imports of our  coal and iron ore and the barley barney would have come to a head sooner or later.


----------



## qldfrog (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> You know exactly what I'm referring to.
> 
> If any business is depending on a single supplier on the other side of the world and has no inventory of whatever they need then they're a sitting duck for disruption. They gambled and lost.
> 
> If it wasn't a pandemic which brought it unstuck then it would have been something else in due course. Living hand to mouth is always risky and best avoided - hence someone invented the idea of a warehouse and of supply chain diversity and so on which unfortunately many have ignored in favour of taking the risk.



most of the casualties are tourism, services and restaurants/coffee which will benefit big chain, and if general population wealth falls, no more avo on toasts, just KFCs,,, this will kill more than Covid on the long term.
unless anyone tested positive and dying is added to the covid victims list as seems the case reading between the lines :
about a 20y old victim in Victoria "headline: _Coronavirus Victoria: Man in his 20s becomes youngest COVID-19 victim "..the basilio hated far wing news ltd LOL_
Actual premier talk:
_“We are talking about one person, we are talking about – we believe – the youngest person that has died of this virus,* or at least with this virus*,”_
At least premier was kind of honest
How can we not fuel conspiracy theory with crap like that..All this will end up very badly and I see some very volatile environment in the coming months.The more this whole shebang is going on, the more pessimistic I am about the economic future of this country.The initial selfishness favoring older Australian is going to turn and it could become nasty the other way round, so gold and ammo?
Surprisingly: https://www.npr.org/2020/07/28/8961...bankruptcy-protection-for-2nd-time-since-2018


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> While i favor dead wood cutting and the long needed shake @Smurf1976 i have to agree with @Sdajii that the current situation is more a fully artificial crisis with day to day change of the rules.in such case, no business but public services is left alive.



I do agree that the situation is not going well in Victoria especially and that the approach is not in any way sustainable.

There's really only two options here unless someone comes up with a vaccine in the relatively near future - eliminate or let it go through the population.

The situation has exposed failings of government. Government as such, as distinct from any particular politician or public servant. Among other issues:

*The idea that a pandemic would be contained using completely artificial political boundaries is really quite bizarre. The only place where the use of state borders makes sense is Tasmania for obvious reasons. For the rest though, the use of state borders is really quite bizarre and adding unnecessarily to the cost.

Please don't anyone tell me something about police working for states and so on. If we can't come up with a solution to that then we deserve to suffer - it's a purely arbitrary construct which can easily be changed by legislation. Put the boundaries where they make sense.

*The idea that we'd have someone who isn't authorised to enforce the law given responsibility for enforcing the law is really not smart.

I've nothing against private security guards personally but if we're keeping people in a prison-like situation under quarantine then whoever's doing that needs both accountability and authority. Accountability to government with a career on the line. Authority to arrest if necessary. Private security guards have neither. Uniformed Police have both.

*We need to stop really dumb things being done.

The idea that some teenager wasn't allowed to practice driving on relatively quiet streets with their own mother or father with whom they live, none of them being known to be infected or exposed to the virus, meanwhile someone who's actually tested positive to COVID-19 is allowed to walk the exact same streets for exercise, is beyond belief.

Whoever came up with those needs to be replaced in their job. Simple as that it's beyond stupid.

Etc. I certainly won't deny that there are issues with the way this has been handled and that the situation isn't sustainable.


----------



## qldfrog (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I do agree that the situation is not going well in Victoria especially and that the approach is not in any way sustainable.
> 
> There's really only two options here unless someone comes up with a vaccine in the relatively near future - eliminate or let it go through the population.
> 
> ...



The state barrier is a pet one for me especially for the gold coast south in nsw north in qld..seriously...
Whereas zones would make sense


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> .All this will end up very badly and I see some very volatile environment in the coming months




I can certainly see trouble being the end result in the eastern states.

WA, NT, SA, Tas have far less to worry about with the possible exception of SA and NT enforcing their eastern borders.

Opinion polls show that too - the state Premiers of WA, SA, Tas have very few disapproving of their actions and public support approaching the 90% level which is pretty much unheard of in politics.

In contrast there's far more division and disapproval in the eastern mainland states. Still majority support as such, but it's in the 60's % and there's far more who are unhappy.

Qld and WA I don't know much about but referring to other issues I'm aware enough of how governments work in the other states to say I'm not at all surprised to see that split. There's a definite cultural difference in approach there which manifests in all sorts of things.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can certainly see trouble being the end result in the eastern states.
> 
> WA, NT, SA, Tas have far less to worry about with the possible exception of SA and NT enforcing their eastern borders.
> 
> ...



There is a Q. Election due in October, so it may give some guidance.

Although there are other issues at play in politics here.

gg


----------



## over9k (14 August 2020)

Travel related stocks have rallied massively this week. So has kogan. 

I reckon victoria has turned the corner. Long way to go yet, but they're over the hill.


----------



## over9k (14 August 2020)

Also, apparently basically every caravan park etc everywhere has been booked out this public holiday weekend up here in QLD. That's just intra-state travel on a public holiday, so summer travel seasonality + pent up demand = lots of domestic tourism coming soon IMO.


----------



## qldfrog (14 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Travel related stocks have rallied massively this week. So has kogan.
> 
> I reckon victoria has turned the corner. Long way to go yet, but they're over the hill.



Victory on what?That people start to realise the real, neither magnified nor dimished issue we have.?
Personally happy as i like figures and numbers before scare campaign or fake news but that's a bloody bad sign for whatever will come next? Curfew armor vehicles in the streets a la China?
https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cd...r/news-story/f5e9ede7faca62182f4ebbdf1aee0e68
Economically catastrophic, gov need to release their fake vaccine quickly or this will blow up and they will find themselves naked especially here and in NZ


----------



## qldfrog (14 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Victory on what?That people start to realise the real, neither magnified nor dimished issue we have.?
> Personally happy as i like figures and numbers before scare campaign or fake news but that's a bloody bad sign for whatever will come next? Curfew armor vehicles in the streets a la China?
> https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cd...r/news-story/f5e9ede7faca62182f4ebbdf1aee0e68
> Economically catastrophic, gov need to release their fake vaccine quickly or this will blow up and they will find themselves naked especially here and in NZ



I am actually getting bear asx wise due to our specific case,and us may not be enough to support our share market plus they have election coming..maybe a switch to Europe Asia in coming months


----------



## over9k (14 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Victory on what?That people start to realise the real, neither magnified nor dimished issue we have.?
> Personally happy as i like figures and numbers before scare campaign or fake news but that's a bloody bad sign for whatever will come next? Curfew armor vehicles in the streets a la China?
> https://amp-theaustralian-com-au.cd...r/news-story/f5e9ede7faca62182f4ebbdf1aee0e68
> Economically catastrophic, gov need to release their fake vaccine quickly or this will blow up and they will find themselves naked especially here and in NZ



We've been over this - it'll never happen. They'd have to admit all the lockdowns etc were pointless/all for nothing. This will NEVER happen.


----------



## IFocus (14 August 2020)

Smurf here in WA we are nearly all separatists from the rest of Australia with a chip on our shoulders wouldn't matter who was in power closing the boarder is always going to be a vote winner. 

In fact as Bali is closer than the East Coast not going to Bali this year has been a bigger source of complain / conversation than closing the boarder to the East.


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It certainly is exposing a weakness, that of dependence on foreign supply lines for essential items like PPE and vaccines and other manufactured items.
> 
> The fact that we could get a substantial face mask manufacturing up and running so quickly shows that we have a capability in these areas but are too complacent to support this, preferring to rely on foreign suppliers.
> 
> Hopefully we have learned a lesson.




Forcing people to not open their business, that is, to say they must shut their doors, is not exposing a weakness linked to supply lines. It doesn't matter what your supply line is if you can't open your shop!

If travel is impossible or if the media scares people into not doing it, it does not expose a weakness in supply lines, it is destruction of an industry!

If the government says citizens can not work at a local abattoir to process locally-produced meat, and there is a meat shortage (this is the exact case right here right now), it is the creation of a problem, not an exposure of a preexisting weakness.

Do I really need to go on with examples? Do you honestly believe the insanity you are going along with?

You say you hope we've learned a lesson. It honestly seems that you need a lesson in critical thinking if you think locking down an economy is not the cause of economic problems and you would have some anomaly in your head which would cause you to attempt to push such a ridiculous spin story.

As New Zealand has shown us, this virus is so mild that if you believe it is not there, it does not hurt your economy! Yet once you find it, if you so choose, you can lock yourself down and wreck your economy! 102 days of believing it was gone, not trying to prevent it, and it wasn't doing anything. If you want to disbelieve that and think it somehow arrived on imported goods, you accept that it is so insanely contagious that there is no point trying to contain it anyway. However you look at it, the mainstream narrative you're advocating does not hold water. At some point we need to accept that mistakes were made (is it really difficult to believe that high level authorities made mistakes? Does anyone think that's unprecedented or surprising or something?) and move forward with sanity. That is when the economy can recover. Or, finding an excuse to save face (ineffective vaccine is the most likely way).


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Forcing people to not open their business, that is, to say they must shut their doors, is not exposing a weakness linked to supply lines. It doesn't matter what your supply line is if you can't open your shop!




That is indeed true but there's plenty of supply chain weaknesses which have indeed been exposed affecting businesses which are open. Obviously not an issue if the business is shut but it is still an issue nonetheless.

Then there's those who initiated their own shutdown, not required by government, and who just happen to rely entirely on product from one manufacturer in China. It's not hard to come up with an explanation for why they decided to shut their shops.

Also things like not having even one person in the state or even country able to service a piece of equipment. That's a rather significant vulnerability since there's quite a few things which could stop a service tech traveling from wherever. I'm referring to electricians and mechanics here, not exactly uncommon as such but business does funny things at times.


----------



## qldfrog (15 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is indeed true but there's plenty of supply chain weaknesses which have indeed been exposed affecting businesses which are open. Obviously not an issue if the business is shut but it is still an issue nonetheless.
> 
> Then there's those who initiated their own shutdown, not required by government, and who just happen to rely entirely on product from one manufacturer in China. It's not hard to come up with an explanation for why they decided to shut their shops.
> 
> Also things like not having even one person in the state or even country able to service a piece of equipment. That's a rather significant vulnerability since there's quite a few things which could stop a service tech traveling from wherever. I'm referring to electricians and mechanics here, not exactly uncommon as such but business does funny things at times.



No denying but lockdown of the type we have are a back in middle age strategy business wise; do we need a repairer for each piece of equipment in each state, town, within 20km ??
Travel (and oil) is what allow us to have the unprecedented lifestyle we experience, even if you are self sufficient on your acreage as I am..(travel of people, goods or skills..)
This article is looking at lockdowns in a balanced way, and as I said earlier this view starts spreading at least among the non brainwashed people who actually make this country run based on quite a few linked-in posts lately
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...s-still-out-on-lockdowns-20200812-p55l2y.html
Now if this spread among the general population:
the gov and that is generic, not party preferred, will have to answer.
-> the backlash could prevent reasonable needed measure..
Look at the mask policies, some completely stupid here and overseas..wearing a mask walking on the beach is lunacy, in Woolies or at the movie a must have... but heavy government, red tape style can not see difference, state borders are seen as walls...
anyway, not sure how long we can carry on within our own bubble, good thing is:
summer is coming and sun will be back, spread will ease soon.Victoria could even send us some rain if they can ;-)


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is indeed true but there's plenty of supply chain weaknesses which have indeed been exposed affecting businesses which are open. Obviously not an issue if the business is shut but it is still an issue nonetheless.




You'll find examples of that, sure, but overwhelmingly, the shutdowns, which should be obvious from the fact that we're literally calling them shutdowns, are themselves directly harming the economy. This is the primary issue. The fact that we literally call them shutdowns should make this obvious.



> Then there's those who initiated their own shutdown, not required by government, and who just happen to rely entirely on product from one manufacturer in China. It's not hard to come up with an explanation for why they decided to shut their shops.




In those specific examples, sure, it's a valid point. I entirely agree that we should not be relying on hostile foreign nations. I was saying this as a schoolboy in the 1990s and got suspended from school for talking about it. 20 years ago I was walking around in K-mart etc, absolutely bewildered that people were being so stupid. This is an important and related, but different issue. Using it as a scapegoat for a literal *shutdown* hurting the *economy* is disingenuous. Pointing out that it has a contribution to the economic issues is totally valid, but it's absurd to say it's the main cause, or even more insane, to try to justify further economic destruction.


----------



## basilio (15 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Look at the mask policies, some completely stupid here and overseas..wearing a mask walking on the beach is lunacy, in Woolies or at the movie a must have... but heavy government, red tape style can not see difference, state borders are seen as walls...




General policies  like "Wear a mask outdoors" are always blunt instruments.

There are in fact some get out clauses but  the reality is in emergency situations governments have to have the capacity to ensure people take an emergency direction seriously.

From a policing POV it is always  the case that 80-90% of people understand and follow laws. The trouble ill be be with the idiots, the wilfully disruptive, the self servers and self righteous Karens who demand their rights as sovereign citizens. 

We should  remember that the State Government was very quick to reverse penalties which failed the sensible interpretation rule specifically to be responsive to some genuine individual circumstances.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You'll find examples of that, sure, but overwhelmingly, the shutdowns, which should be obvious from the fact that we're literally calling them shutdowns, are themselves directly harming the economy. This is the primary issue. The fact that we literally call them shutdowns should make this obvious.




And compensation is available for business and individuals concerned.

Yes, some will fall through the cracks, they always do, but the overall strategy is working.


----------



## qldfrog (15 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> overall strategy is working



Irreconcilable difference is what it is called in divorces.
No point arguing.


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> And compensation is available for business and individuals concerned.
> 
> Yes, some will fall through the cracks, they always do, but the overall strategy is working.




You do realise that compensation is paid for, right? You know that the government doesn't have a magical money tree in the backyard of Kirribilli House, right?

*facepalm*


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You do realise that compensation is paid for, right? You know that the government doesn't have a magical money tree in the backyard of Kirribilli House, right?
> 
> *facepalm*




It's called natural resources, natural gas, coal, iron ore, gold, bauxite... but the guvnuts think all this stuff belongs to foreign companies


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Irreconcilable difference is what it is called in divorces.
> No point arguing.




You are correct.


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It's called natural resources, natural gas, coal, iron ore, gold, bauxite... but the guvnuts think all this stuff belongs to foreign companies




What you are saying here is that since Australia is fortunate enough to have plenty of natural resources, it's okay to shut everything down and tell people to stay inside and not, you know, work or have businesses or do anything productive, and that won't hurt the economy.

Please understand that this does not make sense. Yes, Australia is blessed with great natural resources, but they are not the single thing which drives the economy and losing a large amount of the economy does indeed harm the economy.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> What you are saying here is that since Australia is fortunate enough to have plenty of natural resources, it's okay to shut everything down and tell people to stay inside and not, you know, work or have businesses or do anything productive, and that won't hurt the economy.
> 
> Please understand that this does not make sense. Yes, Australia is blessed with great natural resources, but they are not the single thing which drives the economy and losing a large amount of the economy does indeed harm the economy.




You asked how we should pay for the lockdowns as far as the compensation payments, I gave you an answer.

Of course the economy is going to be hurt, but there is a way back.


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You asked how we should pay for the lockdowns as far as the compensation payments, I gave you an answer.




Either your imagination is running wild and detaching your mind from reality, or you're deliberately taking me way out of context. I know it's possible to play insane, destructive, irresponsible economic games to make the payments, I'm not questioning whether or not it's possible, I'm saying it's insane. If I ever asked that question it was obviously rhetorical and pointing out that it will be incredibly destructive.



> Of course the economy is going to be hurt, but there is a way back.




The way back will not commence until we cease causing the problem.


----------



## basilio (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> and losing a large amount of the economy does indeed harm the economy.




Sdajii you appear to know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Essentially that is why rational discussion with you is a pointless exercise.

You  refuse  to recognise that we cannot actually have a  properly functioning economy in a society that is rightly fearful of a rapidly spreading disease that kills and incapacitates millions of people. 

That is the fundamental problem at the basis of this issue. 

Until this is worked out we cannot  safely have mass travel. We cannot safely have mass public events whether they are sporting, cultural or  political.  We cannot work together without space and protection. 

The degree of restrictions we have to enforce is determined by our success in limiting the spread of this virus and/or effectively treating it.


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Sdajii you appear to know the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
> Essentially that is why rational discussion with you is a pointless exercise.
> 
> You  refuse  to recognise that we cannot actually have a  properly functioning economy in a society that is rightly fearful of a rapidly spreading disease that kills and incapacitates millions of people.




You refuse to accept that the fear is unjustified. Without a media campaign telling people to be fearful, they would not be fearful.



> That is the fundamental problem at the basis of this issue.




It seems that we can agree that the fear is a fundamental part of the issue. At least we have that common ground. It should be clear that the media is causing the fear. The virus itself is not doing anything particularly tangible to the economy, and even with zero mitigation it wouldn't. The overwhelming majority of deaths are old people in nursing homes. They do not contribute to the economy. In saying that I am not saying they have no value, I am addressing the topic (damned if I do and damned if I don't; as can be seen by anyone bothering to look at this thread objectively, I have been one of the main people trying to keep it on topic, it goes way off thread when I'm not here, but I get accused of dragging it off topic, yet here you accuse me of looking at the 'price not value' when I relate things to the topic, ie, the economy!)



> Until this is worked out we cannot  safely have mass travel. We cannot safely have mass public events whether they are sporting, cultural or  political.  We cannot work together without space and protection.




I'd be more than happy to travel, and I believe it should be an option available for those who wish to take it. Mass crowds, sure, I'd personally be happy to see them avoided for the time being. Either way, these two issues are hardly the sum of the problem at hand.



> The degree of restrictions we have to enforce is determined by our success in limiting the spread of this virus and/or effectively treating it.




See, this is absolute tunnel vision and is transparently ignorant, by definition of the word. You are suggesting (or at least implying, deliberately or not), as many are, that the only measure of success is by limiting the spread of a virus which for most people is asymptomatic, and for very few is serious. To say this is the measure, while ignoring the fact that you're literally causing a bigger problem than the one you are trying to mitigate, and you're not doing all that much to mitigate the problem anyway, is to ignore the big picture.

Why do you not see any problem in causing problems? Why are the problems we are causing not important?

To address the thread's topic, clearly the fear and restrictions are almost the entire cause of the economic problems. Despite you thinking it or trying to pretend it's the case, I do not think the economy is the only issue, it's just the topic of the thread. You on the other hand act like the only problems we need to care about are those caused by the virus, even if other problems are bigger than those problems.

Surely the goal should be to minimise the total amount of damage experienced by the population. If we are to err one way or the other, surely it should be in whichever direction allows us to retain as much freedom, rights and liberty as possible.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You refuse to accept that the fear is unjustified. Without a media campaign telling people to be fearful, they would not be fearful.




How many medical experts can you quote saying that the virus is innocuous and we should be opening up the economy again ?

This is a health issue first, and I'd rather go to a doctor than a civil rights activist where my health is concerned.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Pointing out that it has a contribution to the economic issues is totally valid, but it's absurd to say it's the main cause, or even more insane, to try to justify further economic destruction.



I'm not claiming it's the only or even main issue, just that the situation has highlighted flaws and weaknesses of which reliance on a single foreign supplier is one.

Risks like that were always going to end badly at some point and that has now occurred and the weakness which has long been present has been exposed.

The overall situation is a disaster I agree and there's no question that a hospitality business, for example, is stuffed through no fault of their own. There's nothing they could reasonably have done to avoid the situation.

I'm increasingly convinced that this is going to have an impact which varies between the states though. I'll probably upset someone but I'll say what I'm thinking - Victoria's long had issues with rules, regulations, enforcement and so on and that has become all too apparent amidst this crisis.

Anyone who knows me will know that I've never been keen on Melbourne as a city and that the "rules and enforcement" culture is the reason. It's easily missed but once you've noticed it it's impossible to not keep noticing it over and over since it permeates everything from building regulations to music festivals. NSW has gone down the same track in recent years too - in contrast SA and Tas are far more relaxed with just about everything.

Nothing personal, I don't hate Victorians, just never liked the underlying approach that governments there have long taken. Broad brush, one size fits all, no tolerance - that comes up in everything from speed limits to controlling crowds. In contrast the smaller states tend more toward precision, no problem with checking things individually and having rules to suit, try to find some humour amidst it all somewhere. That seems to be working better when it comes to compliance and keeping people on side.


----------



## Sdajii (15 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How many medical experts can you quote saying that the virus is innocuous and we should be opening up the economy again ?
> 
> This is a health issue first, and I'd rather go to a doctor than a civil rights activist where my health is concerned.




I'm literally going by the official figures. Most people either show no symptoms, are naturally immune, or have a very mild disease. I'm not making that up, we now have the data to show this.

Of the people who do get significantly sick, most are elderly. Sure, that's a vague term, but we can certainly see that even in countries with no healthcare system to speak of, the majority of deaths are elderly of people who were going to die anyway (such as the Australian man in his 30s who died recently... who as we later found out was already at the end of a two year battle with cancer!).

Clearly your mind is made up that the virus is the only thing to be concerned about and that no other threat and no other danger and no other hardship can be compared to it. I can acknowledge the risks the virus does cause, but we now have enough data to show that they're not that bad. It's not like we need to consult medical professionals for breaking news which wasn't available yesterday, we have a heap of official data now. It's very clearly and tangibly much more mild than the initial models assumed, and the lockdowns were based on.


----------



## Knobby22 (15 August 2020)

What are the latest official figures?


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2020)

I was wondering, they say we are all in this together, does that mean when everyone is unemployed they all get welfare?


----------



## Knobby22 (15 August 2020)

According to worldometer the death rate if you catch it  is 1.4% or 1 in 72. Boris Johnston showed how real it is. I think everyone was hoping it wasn't too bad. 

If you are under 65 the odds of dying with no pre existing conditions is one in 1,150. Wish I could get those odds in tattslotto.


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## Knobby22 (15 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I was wondering, they say we are all in this together, does that mean when everyone is unemployed they all get welfare?



How annoying has that add become!


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> How annoying has that add become!



Yes it is all starting to show how ridiculous our social structure is, there are people complaining not enough is being done, there are others who wont go back to work and then there are those who just want to complain.


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## SirRumpole (16 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I'm literally going by the official figures. Most people either show no symptoms, are naturally immune, or have a very mild disease. I'm not making that up, we now have the data to show this.




The official figures don't show those who have had the disease but have suffered after effects, strokes heart and lung damage, persistent chronic fatigue... These are all economic costs as well as health costs and well worth reducing in the population.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ovid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists


----------



## Junior (16 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Forcing people to not open their business, that is, to say they must shut their doors, is not exposing a weakness linked to supply lines. It doesn't matter what your supply line is if you can't open your shop!
> 
> If travel is impossible or if the media scares people into not doing it, it does not expose a weakness in supply lines, it is destruction of an industry!
> 
> ...




So...you’re saying the virus has been circulating and spreading in NZ this whole time, and they never eliminated or stamped it out?  I would have thought it’s pretty clear it was reintroduced recently given the 100% negative test results they had in NZ for 100 odd days.

Is there any proof or evidence supporting this? Or just a manufactured “fact” you have invented to support your narrative?

To be clear I’m not supporting or promoting NZ strategy on this, just pointing out that yet again your arguments are not based on any real evidence or data.


----------



## qldfrog (16 August 2020)

Junior said:


> So...you’re saying the virus has been circulating and spreading in NZ this whole time, and they never eliminated or stamped it out?  I would have thought it’s pretty clear it was reintroduced recently given the 100% negative test results they had in NZ for 100 odd days.
> 
> Is there any proof or evidence supporting this? Or just a manufactured “fact” you have invented to support your narrative?
> 
> To be clear I’m not supporting or promoting NZ strategy on this, just pointing out that yet again your arguments are not based on any real evidence or data.



It is not sure yet if it was there all the time or reimported
Reimporting it would be the nice option for the governments but no real proof yet .
Remember that the virus was already present in Europe  in October as per later tests done and noone really realised
That's a fact i believe no one contests?
For most people it is indeed benign and so the issue in detecting it as it it spread like fire among younger healthier population


----------



## basilio (16 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The official figures don't show those who have had the disease but have suffered after effects, strokes heart and lung damage, persistent chronic fatigue... These are all economic costs as well as health costs and well worth reducing in the population.
> 
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ovid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists




That issue has been raised repeatedly on this forum. Sjajii has still not acknowledged it in terms of how  crippling COVID is/will be to our economy/society.

On the  positive side I think there is cause for hope with the range of vaccines seemingly close to  distribution and quicker cheaper COVID tests


----------



## cutz (16 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> According to worldometer the death rate if you catch it  is 1.4% or 1 in 72. Boris Johnston showed how real it is. I think everyone was hoping it wasn't too bad.
> 
> If you are under 65 the odds of dying with no pre existing conditions is one in 1,150. Wish I could get those odds in tattslotto.




Do those stats factor in the population that have caught it / recovered / never tested ?  I reckon those figures are inaccurately skewed to the downside.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2020)

Just to get away from all the doctors talking about the pathological characteristics and pathogenesis of a  virus who have invaded this economic thread. 

We are doomed. Unemployment. Bankruptcies. Civil unrest. Loss of US Empire as a stabilising economic influence. Disrupters such as Turkey, Israel, N.Korea, to name a few going to war or being attacked. 

Pestilence, War, Famine.

October beckons. 

Beware its Ides.

gg


----------



## SirRumpole (16 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just to get away from all the doctors talking about the pathological characteristics and pathogenesis of a  virus who have invaded this economic thread.
> 
> We are doomed. Unemployment. Bankruptcies. Civil unrest. Loss of US Empire as a stabilising economic influence. Disrupters such as Turkey, Israel, N.Korea, to name a few going to war or being attacked.
> 
> ...




Thanks, I needed that.


----------



## basilio (16 August 2020)

_Thanks, I needed that.   Rumpy_

Time to watch/ re see Inception.
Classic story of Living the Dream. 
(Saw it for the first time last night. Absolutely brilliant...)


----------



## basilio (16 August 2020)

Looking for bright spots in these dark times ?
*300x reduction in the number of flu cases*



ABC News

Dr Sutton said the restrictions in place have lead to a huge decrease in the amount of flu in Australia from April to August.

"For April-August in Australia, [we have had] 300 times less flu transmission - it has never happened anywhere in the world.

"At the beginning of the year we are getting northern hemisphere cases, we still have people travelling into Australia, but with the end of international travel, effectively, and all of the measures we have had in place from March onwards.

*"That has shown you can stop a really infectious virus from transmitting in the community. So these measures we have in place and all of the awareness raising we have done.*

*"But coronavirus is more deadly and infectious than flu, 10 or so times more deadly than the flu.*

"[However] we have saved hundreds of lives from flu this season because of the actions we have taken for coronavirus."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...-news-victoria-nsw-aged-care-covid19/12562286


----------



## Knobby22 (16 August 2020)

cutz said:


> Do those stats factor in the population that have caught it / recovered / never tested ?  I reckon those figures are inaccurately skewed to the downside.



They have. You can see how they worked it out on worldometer.


----------



## Sdajii (16 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> According to worldometer the death rate if you catch it  is 1.4% or 1 in 72. Boris Johnston showed how real it is. I think everyone was hoping it wasn't too bad.
> 
> If you are under 65 the odds of dying with no pre existing conditions is one in 1,150. Wish I could get those odds in tattslotto.




Keep in mind that these figures only count the observed/identified cases. As we've seen masses of evidence for, most people don't get symptoms at all or don't get symptoms which are even significant enough for people to bother seeking help or get tested. When people are mass tested, unknown cases are found. Most people aren't getting tested, thus, we know there are many many many people with the disease uncounted in the statistics.

On the other hand, if someone dies of it, they are very much noticed. A death is always something people realise happened. At the moment, deaths are all being tested. Even if someone is literally on their death bed about to die after a multi year battle with cancer, they are often being counted as a virus death if they happened to have the virus.

Taking both these factors into account and considering that together they multiply, the real figures of the danger are far, far less. We can't get an exact figure on them because it's impossible to get a numerical figure on exactly how many people have it and are not identified, but by all accounts the number is large.

Whether people who die of it really should be counted as deaths is more a case of shades of grey. If a perfectly healthy 40 year old caught it and died, sure, that would be black and white virus death (we haven't actually had even one such case in Australia and by all accounts such cases are extraordinarily rare). If someone is literally just about to die of cancer and they catch the disease just before their death, or if they die of a car accident while infected, in reality they did not die of the virus and it's realistically black and white (they were going to die anyway), but there are at least some cases like these which are being counted as virus cases.

Then there are shades of grey such as an elderly person of 94 years of age who can't walk or live unassisted and is not long for this world, who died of the virus, but presumably only had a few more senescent months left at best. This is a very typical scenario among the deaths, and these all get recorded as virus deaths, but in reality should scare no one (and incidentally, these people would be better off without the restrictions because I would argue that it would be nicer to die today among family and loved ones rather than spend 5 more months isolated from anyone who cares about you while bedridden and miserable in isolation, then dying alone).

After all of this, the number of deaths of people mostly unhealthy in their 60s and 70s who possibly would have survived without the virus are relatively few. It's worth noting that obesity has a much higher incidence of both death and lifelong negative health impacts than the virus, and we could save far, far more lives and make people much more healthy with far less effort and money and zero net negative economic impact by simply doing more to encourage people to have healthier lifestyles which would eliminate these comorbidities such as obesity, heart disease, type 2 diabetes, etc. But ignoring that, this category of people are the only ones worth paying particular attention to when looking at the big picture, assuming we care about keeping people healthy and alive.

The last category are the people who die or have long term affects despite being otherwise healthy and under 60. These are extremely rare and by any reasonable measure, their number is completely and utterly dwarfed by the number of deaths which will be caused through suicide, poverty, etc etc, and let's not forget that depression which is now epidemic in Melbourne and rapidly increasing across the country, is often a chronic/lifelong disease once it has occurred, alcoholism is a serious health issue which kills people, it takes about 60 days for a behaviour to become an established habit according to psychologists and alcohol consumption is skyrocketing (as is illicit drug use, which was as predictable as anything ever could have been), suicide, etc etc. Not to mention loss of employment etc.


----------



## Sdajii (16 August 2020)

Junior said:


> So...you’re saying the virus has been circulating and spreading in NZ this whole time, and they never eliminated or stamped it out?  I would have thought it’s pretty clear it was reintroduced recently given the 100% negative test results they had in NZ for 100 odd days.
> 
> Is there any proof or evidence supporting this? Or just a manufactured “fact” you have invented to support your narrative?
> 
> To be clear I’m not supporting or promoting NZ strategy on this, just pointing out that yet again your arguments are not based on any real evidence or data.




As I said in the very post you quoted and were responding to, if you want to assume that it was imported somehow, you have to accept that unless all international trade of goods is all but stopped, the virus is going to come back anyway, lockdowns will continue to be necessary indefinitely, and there can be no resumption of a normal way of life anyway. Given what we know, it is far more likely that it was silently lingering in the population, unnoticed (hardly surprising since most people get no symptoms or very mild symptoms, and if you don't think a bit of a cough is something to be scared of, you won't be scared just like literally every other time you've ever had a very mild cough).


----------



## SirRumpole (16 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> After all of this, the number of deaths of people mostly unhealthy in their 60s and 70s who possibly would have survived without the virus are relatively few.




How do you come to that conclusion ?

I doubt if you have sufficient access to individual case details to make any assumption about whether people in that age range would have survived or not, and to what age ? There are a lot of people with comorbidities that are treatable who live long and productive lives. The cure rate for most common cancers is improving and things like asthma are quite treatable but the person would be under severe risk if they got covid.




Sdajii said:


> The last category are the people who die or have long term affects despite being otherwise healthy and under 60. These are extremely rare and by any reasonable measure, their number is completely and utterly dwarfed by the number of deaths which will be caused through suicide, poverty, etc etc, and let's not forget that depression which is now epidemic in Melbourne and rapidly increasing across the country, is often a chronic/lifelong disease once it has occurred, alcoholism is a serious health issue which kills people, it takes about 60 days for a behaviour to become an established habit according to psychologists and alcohol consumption is skyrocketing (as is illicit drug use, which was as predictable as anything ever could have been), suicide, etc etc. Not to mention loss of employment etc.




The effects of depression due to lockdowns can't be denied, but treatment is available and the bottom line is that we are all in the same boat and we can help each other out.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2020)

I wish all the doctors and epidemiologists would get off this bloody thread so that the economic effects of coronavirus can be discussed.

There is a thread in General Chat for discussing the virus.

Q. Take the known facts about Coronavirus longterm.
A. There are no known facts longterm.
Q. How long will it go for.
A. Nobody knows.
Q. A vaccine.
A. None yet.
Q. Soon.
A. Probably not.
Q. A tablet.
A. Nope
Q. How will this affect the economy.
A. It will go to hell in a basket.
Q. Will we get any warning of a sudden deterioration in the economy.
A. Nope.
Q. Will there be civil disruption and a breakdown in law and order.
A. Yep.
Q. How will all this affect the economy.
A. It will go to hell in a basket.

gg


----------



## satanoperca (16 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The effects of depression due to lockdowns can't be denied, but treatment is available and the bottom line is that we are all in the same boat and we can help each other out.




Go have a look at the increase in mental illness in Australia over the last 20 years, if there are treatments, they are not doing a good job.

And for those that need to deal with mental disorders, "we are in all it together" hardly helps.


----------



## satanoperca (16 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How do you come to that conclusion ?




What does this graph tell you? Covid is not killing the healthy.


----------



## satanoperca (16 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I wish all the doctors and epidemiologists would get off this bloody thread so that the economic effects of coronavirus can be discussed.
> 
> There is a thread in General Chat for discussing the virus.
> 
> ...




Sorry GG, you are correct.

So I will get back onto the topic, if this is killing the weak, then how much should the economy pay to save a life?


----------



## SirRumpole (16 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> What does this graph tell you? Covid is not killing the healthy.
> 
> View attachment 107715




So you can't have healthy 70 year olds ?

Graphs like that are too simplistic to draw any conclusions from.

And to keep some people happy...

$$$$$$$$$$


----------



## basilio (16 August 2020)

I just keep wondering who are all the medical people getting sick and dying from Covid ?

Also like to know about the hundreds of care workers in Aged care centres who have been affected. Enough deaths and serious illnesses there.

This doesn't just affect the old and sick.  Could we respect the Chief Heath officer Brett Sutton in Victorias' comments when he noted that COVID is 10 times more dangerous than the flu ?

In terms of economic impact ? How do we run our society if our medical  and social care facilities are overrun with COVID illnesses and the staff also come down sick and die?
Seriously ?

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...d-19-outbreaks-in-residential-disability-care


----------



## satanoperca (16 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So you can't have healthy 70 year olds ?
> 
> Graphs like that are too simplistic to draw any conclusions from.
> 
> ...




As GG said, this is the economic threads, so yes it is all about money.

and yes you can have fit 70year old, but they are few and far between.


----------



## over9k (16 August 2020)

Here's a brutal economic measure for you: 

Old farts are massively economically costly. The more of them that are bumped off, the less the burden on the healthcare system.


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I wish all the doctors and epidemiologists would get off this bloody thread so that the economic effects of coronavirus can be discussed.
> 
> There is a thread in General Chat for discussing the virus.
> 
> ...



Yes.

I would add that lockdown dogma will double the economic effect.

1/ From the lock down itself

2/ Subsequent lockdowns of either a mandated or population self imposed nature.

This is why the Swedish model will win in the end, one hit and done... more or less.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2020)

The Education Sector of the Australian economy may not be of much interest to the catether bag crew of this thread, but it has been hammered by the contraction in delivery of face to face and of foreign students returning to their homelands. 

A new pilot is being started in Adelaide in September to quarantine and return to their studies foreign students. 



> Trade Minister Simon Birmingham announced on Sunday that up to 300 students would start arriving in Adelaide as part of a pilot program to restart the international education sector which has been pummelled by the coronavirus pandemic.
> 
> Universities are bracing for a potential $3 billion hit to their budgets from the COVID-19 outbreak. The Group of Eight - including the University of Sydney and the University of Melbourne - account for 65,000 of the more than 100,000 Chinese students stranded overseas, while students from other key markets including India, Nepal and Vietnam have also been stuck at home.
> 
> The students will travel from Singapore on flights arriving by early September. The group also includes students from Hong Kong, China and Japan.




https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-to-restart-in-september-20200816-p55m8t.html

gg


----------



## Knobby22 (16 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Keep in mind that these figures only count the observed/identified cases. As we've seen masses of evidence for, most people don't get symptoms at all or don't get symptoms which are even significant enough for people to bother seeking help or get tested. When people are mass tested, unknown cases are found. Most people aren't getting tested, thus, we know there are many many many people with the disease uncounted in the statistics.
> 
> On the other hand, if someone dies of it, they are very much noticed. A death is always something people realise happened. At the moment, deaths are all being tested. Even if someone is literally on their death bed about to die after a multi year battle with cancer, they are often being counted as a virus death if they happened to have the virus.
> 
> ...



Have a look an and read how they work it out. It's not just observed cases. Go to the site. I highly recommend at least looking at it. If you only counted observed cases the figures would be a lot worse.

Type in worldometer and take a look.


----------



## wayneL (16 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Here's a brutal economic measure for you:
> 
> Old farts are massively economically costly. The more of them that are bumped off, the less the burden on the healthcare system.



Harsh. Brutally harsh... Nobody likes the idea of granny drowning in her own sputum.

But economically accurate.

Somewhere there is a balance between ruining the future of the young, Vs lengthening poor quality of life of the old.

Let's look at things another way.

In other situations, the old sacrifice the lives of the young... wars, anyone?

Here my schtick and I will die on this hill:

Mrs and I are getting on, and we will gladly risk our lives for the continuing liberty of the young... and we don't even have our own children.

Those of you with kids should think very deeply about that.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2020)

OK , grab yer catether bags and follow me a bit further. Don't drip.

There has been little or no contraction in mining activity in WA. or Queensland since the beginning of the pestilence. 

FIFO still operates. 

As far as I know as many large mines as possible cohort their fifo's so that the "white team" e.g never physically meet the "blue team" on site, and there have been no outbreaks in mining operations in either state. 

A large mining company is as close as we in the West can ever get to a totalitarian model, and it shows in the continuing export figures of copper, other metals and coal. 

The governments of WA and Queensland though not as touchy/feely as Victoria and NSW, know what matters to their economy. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 August 2020)

Don't worry you there at the back, Matron will be along with your Mogadon shortly. Just don't drip. 

Tourism has been hammered both from overseas and domestically. Queensland is weathering it better than most. 

On a recent trip to retrieve some buried gold bar out west I was surprised how many grey nomads were on the road. I don't like tourism as a sector nor tourists, but I do sympathise with those whose livelihood depends on it. 

gg


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## SirRumpole (16 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Tourism has been hammered both from overseas and domestically. Queensland is weathering it better than most.




Should be a great chance for those who can go bush to do it, very little chance of running into foreign tourists that you have to dig out of the mud or rescue from swollen creeks.


----------



## againsthegrain (16 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Should be a great chance for those who can go bush to do it, very little chance of running into foreign tourists that you have to dig out of the mud or rescue from swollen creeks.




Since the start everybody keeps saying how its crashing how bad its getting yet everything is chugging along as usual. 
Had a look at house prices in Melbourne, nothing has changed.  All the handouts are extended until next year.  As much as it should be happening for some reason I can't see it happening. Sa is already starting to bring in international students.  Things going back to normal and Australia will fluke it like always I have a feeling.


----------



## moXJO (16 August 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> Since the start everybody keeps saying how its crashing how bad its getting yet everything is chugging along as usual.
> Had a look at house prices in Melbourne, nothing has changed.  All the handouts are extended until next year.  As much as it should be happening for some reason I can't see it happening. Sa is already starting to bring in international students.  Things going back to normal and Australia will fluke it like always I have a feeling.



Has me scratching my head. Prices went up my way. I thought after the gfc- give it time and its going to tank. That was what? 13 years ago. 
The only thing that tanked ended up being gold. 
That and the US dollar.


----------



## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How do you come to that conclusion ?




The official statistics unambiguously demonstrating it.



> I doubt if you have sufficient access to individual case details to make any assumption about whether people in that age range would have survived or not, and to what age ? There are a lot of people with comorbidities that are treatable who live long and productive lives. The cure rate for most common cancers is improving and things like asthma are quite treatable but the person would be under severe risk if they got covid.




You say this like the information isn't out there. I didn't mention asthma, I wouldn't have because it's not relevant. It's not generally fatal, so it doesn't support my case. The case I referred to about the 'COVID death' involved a person who was undeniably terminally ill with no chance of recovery after a two year battle with cancer, and just happened to be infected with the virus before he died. There are many such cases and any objective person can see that since cancer is a very common comorbidity and the types of cancers which generally kill people are involved, those people were going to die anyway, at least a huge percentage (the majority).



> The effects of depression due to lockdowns can't be denied, but treatment is available and the bottom line is that we are all in the same boat and we can help each other out.




Your double standards are well demonstrated here. The disease can be treated and 'we can all help each other out' applies to anything, including the virus. The reality is that depression is a very serious illness. There was a public awareness campaign about mental illness in Australia which has strangely become far less prevalent and very very different this year.  The reality is that depression does tend to have permanent or long lasting effects, unlike this virus which tends to be cured completely without long term complications. Depression is a severe and destructive disease for all people who get it. COVID is a mild, often completely asymptomatic disease for most people who get it. Depression does kill a significant percentage of people who get it. 'We can help each other' doesn't change the reality that it harms and kills people. It is not an excuse to cause this problem in people.

We are not all in the same boat. This is another of the meaningless catch phrases being thrown around. People in Melbourne are more or less under house arrest. All of them. People in other states are basically free. Some people are getting better treatment than others. Some have more money than others. Some qualify for different benefits. Some by sheer luck happened to be in different circumstances at the time these restrictions were imposed. It is not helpful or true to say we are all in the same boat. Some people have depression and will kill themselves because they don't have family or friends to care from them. Many of those will kill themselves because they are unable to access people who care for them because of the restrictions which prevent it. They are not in the same boat as those who are able to access loved ones.

Some people are more prone to alcoholism than others, and some are exposed to those pressures more than others. I've seen several friends develop severe addiction problems this year, including at least one I have little doubt will die an early death from it; it has been a shocking thing to observe. In this area, before this year, I had never seen anyone at the local shops have any sort of violence or crazy outburst incident or anything similar. I'm now seeing it several times per week, where people are screaming at each other or just screaming incoherently in apparently random directions. Someone I know called an ambulance because they saw someone had collapse in public and was unable to stand (they had apparent drunk a dangerous amount), they waited until the ambulance arrived, the paramedics asked the man if he usually drank, he said no, they asked why he did it that day, he said "I'm just so sad". I'm hearing so many first hand accounts like this and observing so much with my own eyes, in areas where I've literally never seen anything like it before. This is the stuff the media is turning a blind eye to. I don't know anyone in Australia who has had the virus, I don't know anyone who personally knows anyone who has had it in Australia, but I have seen so many cases of people being harmed by the lockdowns, whether it's domestic violence (police callouts are utterly through the roof as you'd entirely expect), loss of work/business, depression (very often a lifelong problem once it has started), substance abuse or the many other issues.

We are not all in the same boat. I see some people suffering far more than others, some people affected far more than others. All things considered I'm personally doing quite well, I've saved more money this year than most people would in a normal year, and more than I have for the last two or three years, and that's after losing almost literally everything I had around March (literally down to my clothes, computer, books, virtually all my worldly possessions, business, money... ). Not everyone is as resilient as I am, plenty of people are far worse off despite suffering far less disruption to their lives, and there are others who have suffered as much as I have or more. I imagine if I already had a drinking habit or something, this year would have destroyed me. Some people do have that. You clearly are not in the same boat as many people I am observing. It's very easy for you to be sitting there comfortably saying we are all in the same boat, from your far more comfortable boat, lacking compassion for those in a leaky canoe, raft, or those people who are sinking who you ignore the existence of.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The reality is that depression is a very serious illness.




I know 3 people who've gone through serious depression. Well, three that I realise have gone through it, there may well be others.

One turned out well, one not so well, one is no longer living.

It's an area which needs a major rethink of approach in my view since far to many are either not picked up as being a problem at all or are inappropriately dealt with in a manner which is at best ineffective and at worst adds to the problem.

I'm not sure that the pandemic is going to break anyone who's mentally fine to start with but if the cracks are there then it's going to open them up in a big way almost certainly.


----------



## qldfrog (17 August 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...h/news-story/0ebf5993691da3ffb612438ecf8bd6c3
So whether true or false, could the West be using covid as a reason to justify a hot war on China?
That would explain the unreasonable media barrage, restrictions etc.
Basically create a man made crisis, raise propaganda, ensure fear anger and set a dictatorial gov to smooth any dissidence then embark in old fashioned warfare?
Been looking at what conspiracy theory is the right one, well could be it...

If this is the case, yeap gold is the way, and definitively not in any Australian or png asian assets


----------



## qldfrog (17 August 2020)

And now for some figures on the impacts of our covid blamed restrictions
https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...a/news-story/605aea8cb8460e6c823bd72ae38b44ac
5  billions a month loss for tourism..thanks dear leaders.we are all so grateful


----------



## wayneL (17 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...h/news-story/0ebf5993691da3ffb612438ecf8bd6c3
> So whether true or false, could the West be using covid as a reason to justify a hot war on China?
> That would explain the unreasonable media barrage, restrictions etc.
> Basically create a man made crisis, raise propaganda, ensure fear anger and set a dictatorial gov to smooth any dissidence then embark in old fashioned warfare?
> ...



I listened to an interview Chris Irons did with Danielle DiMartino Booth and she highlighted a number of hot war buttons that are currently itching to be pressed (I posted it somewhere here), so your hythesis regarding the Covid angle just might not be too long a bow to draw. The attitude of Oz may be supporting that too.

It certainly seems to be getting tense around Taiwan and SC Sea.


----------



## PZ99 (17 August 2020)

Whether it's true or not it all fits in nicely with the hundred year plan


----------



## Junior (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> As I said in the very post you quoted and were responding to, if you want to assume that it was imported somehow, you have to accept that unless all international trade of goods is all but stopped, the virus is going to come back anyway, lockdowns will continue to be necessary indefinitely, and there can be no resumption of a normal way of life anyway. Given what we know, it is far more likely that it was silently lingering in the population, unnoticed (hardly surprising since most people get no symptoms or very mild symptoms, and if you don't think a bit of a cough is something to be scared of, you won't be scared just like literally every other time you've ever had a very mild cough).




I haven't made any comment about lockdowns or restrictions.  

My point is, the evidence is very clear that the virus is not so mild, that it could circulate for 100 days without anyone noticing in Auckland, as you are positing.  They have been testing for it every day and everyone is hyper-aware of this thing, it would have been picked up far sooner than that, and there would have been many hospitalisations if it had been spreading for so long.  Again, look at what happened in New York, or parts of Italy back in March.  The virus is real, and people get very sick from it.


----------



## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

The tide is still in with the economy:
1. Flooded with govnuts cash, JobSeeker and Jobkeeper
2. Govnuts business loans
3. Bank amenities on loans
4. Super withdrawals 

Once the tide ebbs and starts to recede, November with the possible low tide in March, we will really see the true economic impact of this virus and govnuts intervention.


----------



## sptrawler (17 August 2020)

Junior said:


> I haven't made any comment about lockdowns or restrictions.
> 
> My point is, the evidence is very clear that the virus is not so mild, that it could circulate for 100 days without anyone noticing in Auckland, as you are positing.  They have been testing for it every day and everyone is hyper-aware of this thing, it would have been picked up far sooner than that, and there would have been many hospitalisations if it had been spreading for so long.  Again, look at what happened in New York, or parts of Italy back in March.  The virus is real, and people get very sick from it.



It could quite easily be a person becoming re infected, if the antibodies the body produces leave quickly, as suspected.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 August 2020)

Sectors of small biz are struggling



> _"Companies across all industries were now waiting an average of 44 days for payment for services – up from 14 days in 2019. _
> 
> _“That is really the leading indicator of delinquency, the first thing that we see when we see a debtor is heading to administration, " _said Patrick Coghlan , CEO of CreditorWatch




_Professor Jason Harris from the University of Sydney said the relaxation of the insolvency laws was “kicking the can down the road”, while Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman Kare Carnell has warned of an “insolvency tsunami” once the laws are retightened._

_Professor Harris from the University of Sydney said some businesses were using the “hibernation period” to purposely run down the assets of their companies;_


> _“(It) creates the clear opportunity for what we might call dodgy pre-insolvency advisers, dodgy phoenix operators, who can be basically strip the assets of a company over that six month period and then when the protection period ends, they can hand off effectively a hollowed-out shell to a liquidator, knowing full well that the liquidator won’t have any assets in which to conduct proper investigations or take enforcement action,” he said _



_and it must be a tricky call; spend and hope, or give it all away:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-17/nsw-small-business-cost-of-being-covid-safe/12559734_


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I know 3 people who've gone through serious depression. Well, three that I realise have gone through it, there may well be others.
> 
> One turned out well, one not so well, one is no longer living.




This is only a sample size of three and the death rate is not anything like 33%, but this is a fairly good representation of what depression does. Depression does cause ongoing problems for the rest of people's lives once they've experienced it. It does change the brain in a very tangible way, and often this can not be reversed. Suicide isn't the only way that depression kills people; it causes people to cease wanting to do anything to help themselves, or anything at all, even eating, drinking, going to the toilet etc becomes a massive challenge. Clearly this can lead to malnutrition, poor health, homelessness, etc etc, which can lead to death in ways other than suicide. For most people it results in a dramatic reduction in quality of life. A few fortunate ones do make complete recoveries.

I would absolutely positively prefer someone I cared about get this virus than clinical depression. Depression is a far, far worse disease for the vast majority of people. We are clearly causing depression in a huge number of people. This aspect alone is likely to be worse than the virus, even ignoring the overall community picture with the economy, loss of liberty, etc etc... but, we do still have the issue of destroying the economy, etc etc.



> I'm not sure that the pandemic is going to break anyone who's mentally fine to start with but if the cracks are there then it's going to open them up in a big way almost certainly.




I've definitely seen it personally, at least in people who you'd never have expected it to happen to. Needless to say, I only know a tiny, tiny percentage of the total population of Australia, and if I've seen it, there are countless more examples out there.

If you want to cause depression, you couldn't find a better way to do it than removing someone's livelihood/vocation and their ability to socialise. Social isolation is probably the biggest cause of depression. Poverty is just the icing on the cake. Removal of freedom is another big one. We are serving people up the biggest depression cocktail which anyone could have written a recipe for. Melbourne is going to be a mentally dysfunctional city for decades.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

Junior said:


> I haven't made any comment about lockdowns or restrictions.
> 
> My point is, the evidence is very clear that the virus is not so mild, that it could circulate for 100 days without anyone noticing in Auckland, as you are positing.  They have been testing for it every day and everyone is hyper-aware of this thing, it would have been picked up far sooner than that, and there would have been many hospitalisations if it had been spreading for so long.  Again, look at what happened in New York, or parts of Italy back in March.  The virus is real, and people get very sick from it.




There actually are examples of it lurking in populations undetected for this long. To say that it spread quickly in New York or Italy so it can't have not spread similarly somewhere else is very easy to disprove simply by looking at the fact that it doesn't spread at an equal rate in all situations, and doesn't affect all demographics in the same way. If it did, we'd see the exact same pattern in all cases. We know that's not the case. If this virus is in a nursing home it doesn't behave in the same way that it does in a primary school. If it is put into a high density city in a culture of poor hygiene, it doesn't spread in the same way it does in a low density population where they are prone to washing their hands. Incidentally, New Zealand doesn't have a high population density and as you point out, they are practicing extreme hygiene and taking particularly extreme precautions with the elderly/vulnerable, which means there were the perfect conditions for a low level existence of the virus sitting around undetected.

The virus is real, you don't need to tell me that. Some people do get sick from it, you don't need to tell me that, but you need to understand that those two facts are not the whole story, and alone, those two facts are misleading. Another two facts are that most people get little to no symptoms, and the people most likely to be exposed to it are young people who are not at significant risk.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not sure that the pandemic is going to break anyone who's mentally fine to start with




You want a wager on that?

Firstly define mentally fine?

I think you will find, that it is going to break a lot of people who have never had to face the consequences of depression.

Myself, well, I have had to fight depression for over 29years, every single day, since contracting *encephalitis. *

It is just part of my life, but I do not underestimate the consequences to someone's wellbeing if they have never had to deal with it. Mine is biological, this virus is creating an environmental depression. ie loss of income, inability to socialize, being alone, the feeling of helplessness.

Both are difficult to treat but are manageable if support is available, in most cases, unfortunately, mine is not, as the medical fraternity do not have enough evidence to support those with a mental disorder and an acquired brain injury.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

The unpleasant reality which we should stop pretending doesn't exist is that depression was already a significant and growing problem in Australia, the system was already not coping with dealing with it properly, and these lockdowns will tremendously increase the problem while reducing our ability to deal with it (those mental healthcare programs cost money, and they are paid by taxes, while rely on a strong economy, which we are destroying).

It's very concerning to see people have the attitude of 'if someone has never had depression before they'll be fine'. There is no sense in saying this and it is a dangerous piece of misinformation to be propagating.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's very concerning to see people have the attitude of 'if someone has never had depression before they'll be fine'. There is no sense in saying this and it is a dangerous piece of misinformation to be propagating.




Agree with the statement, but I wonder those that believe, depression is as simple as sucking up would say the same thing to someone who has to deal with it, face a 6ft person, 85kg of physical mass(I am that size as I have to use physical exercise to manage my depression)  and trying an explain that it is as simple as sucking it up.

I think most would run, actually most do.

Back to the topic, the hangover from this experiment will drain finances.


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## lindsayf (17 August 2020)

On the topic of the virus and mental health implications..people with family on the other side of a closed border have a double whammy.  All of the already mentioned risk factors - loss of vocation/employment, inability to socialise, trauma and sensationalism all over the media 24 hours a day etc AND they cant have physical contact with family members.  In some cases family members who are unwell in need of care or even dying.  Yes a great recipe for more depression /anxiety and other mental health conditions.


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## IFocus (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Agree with the statement, but I wonder those that believe, depression is as simple as sucking up




I mix with a wide variety of social, economic, political views etc and haven't heard that or any negative views regarding mental heath for a very long time particularity depression.
I know this hasn't been always the case.

On the other hand talking to people that have depression often they themselves struggle with the social sigma (I am not saying it doesn't exist particularly with employers).
Its a terrible circle but treatable and treatment is available the problem being people getting treatment.

The main issue with mental health (stigma) that I see is it being treated as a police problem and then the police bearing the brunt of dealing with individuals with no place to go  rather than it being a health issue with the required funding.

On an economic front good funding of mental health by government has high returns on investment as well as community benefits.

The idea that we should be letting people die of covid to stop suicides because of lack of effort to treat mental health (which we should be doing anyway without covid) is one completely without merit IMHO.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> The idea that we should be letting people die of covid to stop suicides because of lack of effort to treat mental health (which we should be doing anyway without covid) is one completely without merit IMHO.




But are we letting people die of covid, this is the essence of the discussion?

So if someone dies at the age of 70, and they are shown to have covid, did they die of it or was more to it. It is like saying someone who is obese, never exercised, did not eat healthy and dies from the flu, is the flu the reason of death, NO.

As I have clearly shown, all the deaths in Australia have been from people > 60 years old, where they healthy in the first place?

So to take the discussion back onto the topic?

How much is a life worth? That depends on the life being able to contribute or has contributed to society.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> How much is a life worth? That depends on the life being able to contribute or has contributed to society.




Once you start trying to put a money value on a life you are entering a very dangerous argument.

When you were in hospital in a coma, would you have wanted life support turned off because it was costing too much ? 

Yes you can put a dollar value on a life, but if you try to use such a valuation for decision making it will take us down paths we don't want to go.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Once you start trying to put a money value on a life you are entering a very dangerous argument.
> And
> When you were in hospital in a coma, would you have wanted life support turned off because it was costing too much ?
> 
> Yes you can put a dollar value on a life, but if you try to use such a valuation for decision making it will take us down paths we don't want to go.




bull****, life has always had a value.

6million people have died from starvation this year, could have been solved with less than $10USD a week, did anyone care, no, they are not in your neighborhood. 

And yes, I did put a valuation on my survival/life during and after coming out of 2 comas. 

If you really want to know, I evaluated living well before the coma and my loving father, who never has done anything wrong was willing to sacrifice his life to forefill my request and part with my life if I could not think, by allowing me to not be brain dead but alive.

Something a parent should never have to face.

So please, I am getting tired of those that think life is forever and will not face death and all lives should be saved regardless of the cost.

We have only so long to live, enjoy, love and experience.

And those that think otherwise stop being so righteous.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> bull****, life has always had a value.
> 
> 6million people have died from starvation this year, could have been solved with less than $10USD a week, did anyone care, no, they are not in your neighborhood.
> 
> ...




Right, then just euthenase people when they get to 70 and solve the whole problem.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Right, then just euthenase people when they get to 70 and solve the whole problem.



Really!


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Right, then just euthenase people when they get to 70 and solve the whole problem.




Okay, lets play the game, seems you have lived a very sheltered life.

Your statement is just stupid, no one has said that, but should we save the life of 70> for a 10> as all things cost money, YES.

So which leads me to think, you cannot accept the reality of all creatures on this planet, you will die.

Should elderly or all people have the right to choose their death, yes. (euthanasia) 

Can you please stop with your year 6 statements, and propose a descent agreement that we can discuss, your simple one-liners are both childish, immature and show your lack of understanding of current events and circumstances.

I have asked repeated times, as this is an economic, how much is a human life worth?


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## PZ99 (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Right, then just euthenase people when they get to 70 and solve the whole problem.



Starting with the US


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I have asked repeated times, as this is an economic, how much is a human life worth?




That very statement indicates your own immaturity. How do you calculate life's value ? Earning power ?

Once a person is retired that value drops to zero. So by that criteria anyone retired has a value of zero. Do you agree with that, if not  what other methods would you use ?


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Starting with the US




Glad you put a "the" in there PZ.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Agree with the statement, but I wonder those that believe, depression is as simple as sucking up would say the same thing to someone who has to deal with it, face a 6ft person, 85kg of physical mass(I am that size as I have to use physical exercise to manage my depression)  and trying an explain that it is as simple as sucking it up.
> 
> I think most would run, actually most do.
> 
> Back to the topic, the hangover from this experiment will drain finances.




I agree with what you are saying, although I personally would prefer these people saying 'suck it up, princess' were faced with people in the depths of despair, on the edge of suicide, just after suicide, in terrible health, with their lives in tatters, having spent many years/decades in horrible conditions, and be faced with their own words of "We're all in the same boat" (honestly, how can they say that without feeling deep shame? Notice how it's only the people comfortable and isolated from genuine suffering who say 'we are all in the same boat/we're all in this together'?) and sentiments about everyone needing to make sacrifices so that the elderly can remain isolated from their loved ones until dying anyway. To force people into isolation is to remove our very humanity.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Once you start trying to put a money value on a life you are entering a very dangerous argument.
> 
> When you were in hospital in a coma, would you have wanted life support turned off because it was costing too much ?
> 
> Yes you can put a dollar value on a life, but if you try to use such a valuation for decision making it will take us down paths we don't want to go.




At some point though, we need to. There are some cases where many millions of dollars could save a life on the taxpayer's dime, and there are ethical debates about it.

We do need to be able to say 'Okay, at some point, it's too much'. The reality is that we lose lives because we don't allocate funding for basic medicine, or housing, or food, etc. 

The reality is, if this is genuinely about saving lives, we could save far more simply having an anti obesity campaign. Obesity has a far higher fatality rate than this virus (by all means challenge me on that! There are plenty of figures to back it up!), it also clearly has a far, far higher rate of morbidity, including chronic morbidity. Far more people are already overweight or obese in Australia than the worst case scenario predictions of virus infections for Australia even with no efforts to slow it. The rate of obesity is rapidly rising in Australia. If this is about saving lives, why are we destroying the economy for a trivial virus (trivial compared to the obesity epidemic) and basically ignoring the rapidly growing, very deadly (far, far more deadly than the virus) problem?

Obesity is just one example. There are plenty of things which kill people which could be mitigated and save far more lives than the virus has any hope of taking, for far, far less destruction to the economy or community.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I agree with what you are saying, although I personally would prefer these people saying 'suck it up, princess' were faced with people in the depths of despair, on the edge of suicide, just after suicide, in terrible health, with their lives in tatters, having spent many years/decades in horrible conditions, and be faced with their own words of "We're all in the same boat" (honestly, how can they say that without feeling deep shame? Notice how it's only the people comfortable and isolated from genuine suffering who say 'we are all in the same boat/we're all in this together'?) and sentiments about everyone needing to make sacrifices so that the elderly can remain isolated from their loved ones until dying anyway. To force people into isolation is to remove our very humanity.




We are in the same boat in terms of isolation, not in terms of mental state. In any case there a wide range of social media apps that can keep people connected.

More resources are being put into treating depression, but it's a complex disease that doesn't just affect isolated people. Many people can be depressed surrounded by friends and wealth and mental health issues have been coming around long before covid arrived. A member of my family suffered from it many years ago and I hope that treatments have improved since then.

How people can honestly look at what is happening in countries like the US where they were thinking of burying people in parks and say that theirs is a more satisfactory solution to the problem when their gdp has dropped 32% compared to 10% for Australia just isn't living in the real world.

https://www.ft.com/content/3ef9cf43-9437-4e6a-8f62-242b56e8cd64
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...onths-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> We are in the same boat in terms of isolation, not in terms of mental state. In any case there a wide range of social media apps that can keep people connected.




No, we are not!

People living in a high rise apartment who would typically work out in a gym and go to the local swimming pool and travel to the lake and go fishing, but are now trapped inside a tiny room with no opportunity to go to their usual places of recreation, are not in the same boat as someone who lives in a typical suburban house, or someone who lives on acreage! Someone in Melbourne is not in the same boat as someone in Brisbane! If you honestly think we are all in the same boat you obviously have no concept of the world far beyond your own little life.



> More resources are being put into treating depression, but it's a complex disease that doesn't just affect isolated people. Many people can be depressed surrounded by friends and wealth and mental health issues have been coming around long before covid arrived. A member of my family suffered from it many years ago and I hope that treatments have improved since then.




The fact that depression is a new disease doesn't mean that it's okay to cause more of it!!! The human brain is still biologically the same as it was before this virus or before you were born or before Australia was called Australia. Depression is a fundamental biological condition. It is no less devastating. Simply saying, and I quote you "I hope that treatments have improved" is not a valid reason to dismiss the issue!



> How people can honestly look at what is happening in countries like the US where they were thinking of burying people in parks and say that theirs is a more satisfactory solution to the problem when their gdp has dropped 32% compared to 10% for Australia just isn't living in the real world.




The USA is having problems beyond the virus. Have you not noticed that they were already in political turmoil etc etc before this happened? Do you think rioting and looting and being on the edge of civil war since before the virus was first detected in China was caused by the virus?


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> That very statement indicates your own immaturity. How do you calculate life's value ? Earning power ?
> 
> Once a person is retired that value drops to zero. So by that criteria anyone retired has a value of zero. Do you agree with that, if not  what other methods would you use ?




F---k me, everything can be calculated, what is your life worth, I know but you might not accept, should I have to pay for you to live forever, no.

Again, you make stupid comments. Ie anyone retired has a value of zero, stupid, my beloved parents are retired, their lives are worth something, I talk to them everyday because I value them, but does that mean society should pay for them to live forever, so I never have to grieve over their deaths, NO, stop being so stupid.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> No, we are not!
> 
> 
> The USA is having problems beyond the virus. Have you not noticed that they were already in political turmoil etc etc before this happened? Do you think rioting and looting and being on the edge of civil war since before the virus was first detected in China was caused by the virus?




Cop out !

Do you really think that a 32% reduction  in GDP was caused by BLM ?

What planet are you on ?


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> That very statement indicates your own immaturity. How do you calculate life's value ? Earning power ?
> 
> Once a person is retired that value drops to zero. So by that criteria anyone retired has a value of zero. Do you agree with that, if not  what other methods would you use ?




Bring this topic back to the thread subject.
Do we spend $100K on saving the life of a 10 year that can possibly contribute to society for the next 60 years, YES
Do we spend $100K on saving the life of a 70 year old, who can provide little economic contribution to society, NO.

Which one would you choose SIR if you only have $100K to spend?


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Cop out !
> 
> Do you really think that a 32% reduction  in GDP was caused by BLM ?
> 
> What planet are you on ?




You ignored the response to all the other vile, despicable, deeply shameful things you said, but what percentage do attribute to the virus itself? What do you attribute to the shutdowns? Very clearly, the virus itself is a very small percentage of the figure, the shutdown is probably the majority, and then there are the political and social issues they are experiencing at the moment. Very clearly the USA has been in an extreme set of circumstances since before the virus and its situation is not applicable to other countries, which not surprisingly can be seen by looking at the fact that their figures are not the same as other countries, which makes it absurd to cherry pick them as an example.


----------



## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F---k me, everything can be calculated, what is your life worth, I know but you might not accept, should I have to pay for you to live forever, no.
> 
> Again, you make stupid comments. Ie anyone retired has a value of zero, stupid, my beloved parents are retired, their lives are worth something, I talk to them everyday because I value them, but does that mean society should pay for them to live forever, so I never have to grieve over their deaths, NO, stop being so stupid.




You are the one who said lives have a money value , so you give us a formula for calculating it, don't expect me to do you homework. Earning capacity was one method I pulled out of the air, there are many others, I never said it was valid , and you never gave an alternative.

My question to you is that as you think lives have a money value, what is your calculation method ? What dollar value do you put on your own life ? Petty insults will not be accepted.


----------



## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You are the one who said lives have a money value , so you give us a formula for calculating it, don't expect me to do you homework. Earning capacity was one method I pulled out of the air, there are many others, I never said it was valid , and you never gave an alternative.
> 
> My question to you is that as you think lives have a money value, what is your calculation method ? What dollar value do you put on your own life ? Petty insults will not be accepted.




I think this is getting a bit off topic, but since you're dwelling on the question and seem to need it addressed, let's look at it.

Obviously we can't easily calculate a figure like $200k or $5million or whatever, but if we're going to be honest and realistic, human lives do have a dollar value. That's not to say I like the reality or advocate it or want it to be the reality, it just is.

Maybe it would help you to see the reality if we look at extreme examples to demonstrate the principle. At one extreme, we could ask if you would pay a few dollars or few hours to save a 20 year old's life if they were needing some help. Sure, you probably would. Most of us would. On the other hand, would you spend all the money you had and/or all of your time for the rest of your life to save that person? Honestly, you probably wouldn't. Very few people would. We don't have an exactly figure on the price/value, but we can see that one does exist, blurry as it is.

Now, would you sell your home to pay for cancer treatment or surgery or a rescue effort to save your own 20 year old child? Very likely, many people would, probably most people. Would you do the same for your 95 year old grandfather? Let's not kid ourselves, you wouldn't, and almost no one would.

Again, we don't have an exact price, but one clearly does exist.

What about public funds? If we could save 2 people for a cost of $1,000 per person, would we do it? Sure, the public would demand it, the government wouldn't hesitate, no one would question the decision. What if it was $1,000,000 per person? There would be some debate, but it would depend on various things (circumstances of them needing the help, their age, etc). It would probably happen with a small amount of controversy. What about $10,000,000 per person? It's difficult to say, it would hang in the balance. What about a billion dollars per person? Nope, sorry, we don't know exactly what the figure is, but we sure as heck will not spend $2 billion saving two random people. Maybe, maybe, maybe if it was the prime minister or something, but for you or me, nope, it would be sorry, bye bye, he had a good life (or, we assume so *awkward avoidance of eye contact*).

If it was a foreigner we'd spend less than an Australian. If it was a pretty woman we'd spend less than if it was a fat ugly one (again, I'm not advocating it or saying it's right, it's just the reality which I know does exist). If it was a criminal we'd spend less than if it was a well-known philanthropist. 20 years ago if they were white we'd have spent more than if they were black. Today we'd spend more if they were black than if they were white.

There are different metrics you can use to calculate the value (economic value, sentimental value, community evaluation, personal evaluation, or simply the own person's ability to pay for themselves eg I have $xxx in money and assets at my disposal so that's what I'm worth, which is actually a common way to refer to a person's value). We could also use the metric of 'we have XXX resources to allocate, we will try to utilise it to give maximum benefit to as many people as possible, or alternatively, use it to benefit people as evenly as possible, and thus, we can say that we have $X to allocate to 'saving lives' and obviously if we spent half of that on one person which means we don't have those funds to save many others and they will now die, a person's life is worth less than half of $X. This last metric is something along the lines of what I'd personally use.

To say that we can not put a dollar value on human life is completely naive, and following this attitude we will immediately squander all of $X on the first case or cases which need it, leaving nothing left for the vast, vast majority of people who could have been helped so much more if a more realistic approach had been used.

But, you should not be using this as a distraction to your utterly abhorrent and inhuman comments earlier.


----------



## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I think this is getting a bit off topic, but since you're dwelling on the question and seem to need it addressed, let's look at it.
> 
> Obviously we can't easily calculate a figure like $200k or $5million or whatever, but if we're going to be honest and realistic, human lives do have a dollar value. That's not to say I like the reality or advocate it or want it to be the reality, it just is.
> 
> ...




@SirRumpole , the above post gives much more insight into understanding/elevation of the value of a human life, so please respond.

As for me, I have given up discussing relevant issues about human life and the values that they add to society with you.

I much rather talk to a brick wall.


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## Smurf1976 (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's very concerning to see people have the attitude of 'if someone has never had depression before they'll be fine'.




There’s a difference between someone who has never had an acknowledged issue versus someone who has no issues as such.

If the cracks are already there then the current situation may well force them open indeed it’s a given that will occur to some extent.

What I don’t see any evidence for is the idea that it’ll cause issues where there are no existing cracks.

Much the same with relationships. Put the pressure on and you find out who never really was a true friend anyway but the real ones stick around. It exposes rather brutally what was always there.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There’s a difference between someone who has never had an acknowledged issue versus someone who has no issues as such.
> 
> If the cracks are already there then the current situation may well force them open.
> 
> ...




This is a disturbing and incorrect assessment. If you have a mirror with a small crack, you will perhaps be able to break it or easily crack it further with minimal force. The greater the existing cracks, the easier it will be to break the glass. But if you start throwing rocks and hammers around, you can break any mirror.

Every human being has a breaking point. We hope that most will never get there. Some will. No human being is invulnerable. With enough stress, anyone can be broken. The more stress and harm we inflict, the more people we will break. It is insane and naive to suggest that inflicting an extreme dose of the worst types of triggers for depression (lack of vocation, lack of income, lack of agency, social isolation, lack of freedom) will not cause a massive increase in the number of people who are broken.


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## Smurf1976 (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If you have a mirror with a small crack, you will perhaps be able to break it or easily crack it further with minimal force. The greater the existing cracks, the easier it will be to break the glass. But if you start throwing rocks and hammers around, you can break any mirror.




That is true but I’m not seeing anything to prove that the current situation is bad to the point of breaking anything not already cracked.

We’re talking about people sitting at home being paid rather a lot of welfare and with unlimited ability to communicate electronically.

We’re not talking about people being left starving on the street etc or sent off to a bush hut with no contact with the outside world.

It’s not good but I’ll observe that among those I know and from what I observe more broadly, those struggling are the predictable ones. 

Anyone will break at some point just as any structure fails at some point if you keep adding more onto it but nothing I’ve seen yet, either personally or via the media, is to the effect of things having reached that point. 

It is however opening up a lot of existing cracks no argument there.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> To say that we can not put a dollar value on human life is completely naive, and following this attitude we will immediately squander all of $X on the first case or cases which need it, leaving nothing left for the vast, vast majority of people who could have been helped so much more if a more realistic approach had been used.




So what if a 70 year old comes down with corona virus. This person has worked for 50 years, paid the Medicare levy plus private health insurance on which he has never claimed. Looking at it that way , he may have a credit balance of say $250k in health related payments. Are you saying that he should in effect be robbed of this money when he needs it most and given to a 20 year old unemployed person who is a drain on the system ?

The point is, valuation of life is essentially a value judgement, you can use your criteria and I can use mine, but no one can say that one method is better than another. The only reasonable way to allocate health resources is on the basis of need and to ensure that our hospitals have the capacity to deal with the number of cases that arrive. That's not easy in a pandemic but that's the reason why governments are trying to reduce the spread.

As to your other comments about my comments, well I concede that it's worse for some people than others but it comes down to the fact that we all are arguing from the viewpoint of own personal circumstances, not necessarily for the good of the whole community.


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## macca (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There’s a difference between someone who has never had an acknowledged issue versus someone who has no issues as such.
> 
> If the cracks are already there then the current situation may well force them open indeed it’s a given that will occur to some extent.
> 
> ...




Another point which needs to be made is that many Doctors are only doing phone consults.

If a person with mental health issues needs a caring face to talk to and they are not available, it is quite likely that greater problems will develop


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## basilio (17 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F---k me, everything can be calculated, what is your life worth, I know but you might not accept, should I have to pay for you to live forever, no.
> 
> Again, you make stupid comments. Ie anyone retired has a value of zero, stupid, my beloved parents are retired, their lives are worth something, I talk to them everyday because I value them, but does that mean society should pay for them to live forever, so I never have to grieve over their deaths, NO, stop being so stupid.




I don't think Rumpoles statements are "stupid".  But more importantly I don 't believe we are getting anywhere with unnecessary abuse. Just doesn't make this a pleasant place to be in.

Perhaps the discussion on the value of human life could be taken to a thread on that topic ? I can see it getting uglier by the minute.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

basilio said:


> I don't think Rumpoles statements are "stupid".  But more importantly I don 't believe we are getting anywhere with unnecessary abuse. Just doesn't make this a pleasant place to be in.
> 
> Perhaps the discussion on the value of human life could be taken to a thread on that topic ? I can see it getting uglier by the minute.




What is pleasant, people losing their jobs, their businesses, their lives.

The discussion is what a human life is worth, is relevant to the thread, it is going to get ugly!


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

basilio said:


> I don't think Rumpoles statements are "stupid".  But more importantly I don 't believe we are getting anywhere with unnecessary abuse. Just doesn't make this a pleasant place to be in.
> 
> Perhaps the discussion on the value of human life could be taken to a thread on that topic ? I can see it getting uglier by the minute.




Not any more, I've said what I want to say, I don't think there is any point dragging it out.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That is true but I’m not seeing anything to prove that the current situation is bad to the point of breaking anything not already cracked.
> 
> We’re talking about people sitting at home being paid rather a lot of welfare and with unlimited ability to communicate electronically.




What does it matter whether or not you consider them to have been 'already cracked'? As I said, and as any psychologist will tell you, and as anyone who cares to think about it can say, anyone can reach their breaking point if pushed hard enough and the more we inflict upon people, the greater the number of people who will break, and we are indeed seeing more people breaking, and this is from the effect of what we are doing, and surely, surely this is a thing which we don't want happening? I mean... what point are you trying to make with your nonsensical 'already cracked' stuff? Are you saying some people are flawless, others have cracks, and if you're already cracked it doesn't matter if you break? Depression is a distinct condition of the brain. It's not just a mood or a feeling or something, it's a distinct, measurable change in the way the brain functions. It is a change of state of the brain. It is well researched and known. We are causing a massive increase in the number of people who are having this change happen to their brain. Once it happens it usually becomes a chronic problem and is often permanent. If it doesn't happen it is not a problem. Some people are obviously more susceptible than others. Your line of reason is like saying it's not a problem if we force everyone to smoke because only people who are susceptible to lung cancer will get it, and many people will never get it, and so hey, it's only those people who had a predisposition to it will get sick... yeah... 

What is your point? It is not a good thing to inflict things on people so that they develop a severe mental condition which they otherwise would not have had!



> We’re not talking about people being left starving on the street etc or sent off to a bush hut with no contact with the outside world.




So, the fact that it's bad enough to give people severe mental illness is not a problem because you can imagine a worse scenario? That's like saying even if everyone was getting smallpox and there was a 20% death rate and 80% rate of permanent complications, it's not so bad because it's not a 40% death rate and some people recover completely? The problem is what it is and comparisons to hypotheticals you simply come up with out of the air are irrelevant. The only relevant comparison is the cure vs. the disease, or the cure vs. what else could have been done with those resources. However you measure it, this cure is the wrong decision.



> It’s not good but I’ll observe that among those I know and from what I observe more broadly, those struggling are the predictable ones.




What point are you making? If I can predict who will die of the virus does that mean it doesn't matter if they die? What line of thinking makes you say "Well, since I could have predicted that this hardship would cause problems in those people, it doesn't matter that we inflicted them on those people and caused these problems"? The fact remains that we did inflict these problems and the problems did happen. I don't believe that all cases are predictable and I've seen plenty of people struggling who I've never seen in anything but calm, well-balanced moods before. On the weekend I had a chat to a couple of police (it's amazing how desperate you get for a face to face chat with someone when you are literally banned by law from seeing friends face to face!) and they said the number of domestic violence callouts is utterly through the roof and they are seeing countless people who usually would not have any problems having all sorts of problems. They were primarily talking about domestic violence, but also psychological dysfunction in general. We know that doing horrible things to people will cause some of them to suffer horribly. What difference does it make whether or not we can predict which ones will suffer the most? Does that somehow reduce the importance of their suffering???



> Anyone will break at some point just as any structure fails at some point if you keep adding more onto it but nothing I’ve seen yet, either personally or via the media, is to the effect of things having reached that point.




You may or may not have noticed this, but the media is controlled by the government and is very much biased, especially towards making the government look good. Do you honestly think that in the current political climate, the Australian media is going to run stories which undermine the virus efforts of the government??? I have no doubt that you're not in Melbourne if you haven't seen these things because here it is overwhelmingly obvious as soon as you go to the shops or talk to anyone. I talk to people in QLD and NSW most days, and spent a couple of hours on the phone to my sister in SA yesterday, I ask everyone about this topic and what they're seeing and definitely the sentiments are different in smaller towns outside Victoria, but even so, I am hearing some bad things from interstate people. I still don't know anyone in Australia who has had the virus, but I know people in QLD, NSW and of course countless in Victoria who have had severe issues, and one or two people in SA who have been significantly affected (not in depression or particularly severe, but they're significantly negatively affected psychologically and socially).

Importantly, the problems are still getting worse, and especially in terms of depression, alcoholism, etc etc, the problems will be chronic.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You may or may not have noticed this, but the media is controlled by the government




I think it's the reverse actually.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> especially towards making the government look good.




Have you seen any of Daniel Andrew's press conferences ? The media have been giving him a roasting. Are you telling us that  Andrews is a poster boy for the Murdoch media ?, what a laugh.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So what if a 70 year old comes down with corona virus. This person has worked for 50 years, paid the Medicare levy plus private health insurance on which he has never claimed. Looking at it that way , he may have a credit balance of say $250k in health related payments. Are you saying that he should in effect be robbed of this money when he needs it most and given to a 20 year old unemployed person who is a drain on the system ?




What a bizarre case of attempting to put words into someone else's mouth.



> The point is, valuation of life is essentially a value judgement, you can use your criteria and I can use mine, but no one can say that one method is better than another. The only reasonable way to allocate health resources is on the basis of need and to ensure that our hospitals have the capacity to deal with the number of cases that arrive. That's not easy in a pandemic but that's the reason why governments are trying to reduce the spread.




The point is, we are clearly, demonstrably causing more death and suffering than we are preventing, and if you genuinely care about lives, regardless of how much value you put on lives or if you refuse to acknowledge that even you would do so when push came to shove, whatever your method of valuation is, there are far better ways to save them. We are largely ignoring things which cause more deaths than the virus has any chance of taking (I used obesity as an obvious example) and inflicting death and suffering on a huge number of people (which wouldn't be the case in addressing obesity) for the sake of possibly saving a few. If you put any value at all on human lives, surely you would want to save lives? 



> As to your other comments about my comments, well I concede that it's worse for some people than others but it comes down to the fact that we all are arguing from the viewpoint of own personal circumstances, not necessarily for the good of the whole community.




No, we are not! I have pointed out that I'm personally doing much better than many others! I'm talking about people who are suffering far more than I am, and dying. People with problems I don't have and with any luck never will. It's disgusting that you would not only argue from that selfish viewpoint but assume that I am just as egocentric as yourself despite the fact that I'm clearly demonstrating otherwise.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Have you seen any of Daniel Andrew's press conferences ? The media have been giving him a roasting. Are you telling us that  Andrews is a poster boy for the Murdoch media ?, what a laugh.




It's disturbing to imagine the lens through which you see the world.

Andrews is there answering questions for himself.

Are we seeing the media talk about the massive increase in depression, domestic violence, etc etc, at least in any more detail than a token amount?

We're not CCP or North Korea level "Everything is perfect and the government is perfect and anyone who says otherwise goes to prison or gets killed in front of their family or at least denied the ability to have a bank account" but if you can't see a media bias, I suppose it makes a lot of your other attitudes easier to understand, sickening as they may be.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> We are largely ignoring things which cause more deaths than the virus has any chance of taking (I used obesity as an obvious example) and inflicting death and suffering on a huge number of people (which wouldn't be the case in addressing obesity) for the sake of possibly saving a few. If you put any value at all on human lives, surely you would want to save lives?




Obesity should be tackled , but it isn't contagious.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Are we seeing the media talk about the massive increase in depression, domestic violence, etc etc, at least in any more detail than a token amount?




Where is your evidence ? Give us some numbers from a verified source.


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## satanoperca (17 August 2020)

While I love a debate, this is just stupid. 

Sdajii< i have appreciated your input into the discussion of the thread.

SIR Rumple, I hope you learn to understand one day.


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## cutz (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Where is your evidence ? Give us some numbers from a verified source.




Sadly this is very real.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...ic-violence-groups-amid-warning/12296018?nw=0

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...own-fatigue-mental-health-depression/12519698

I can only link abc sources as I have fire-walled the other popular news website.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Obesity should be tackled , but it isn't contagious.




It's not contagious, so we shouldn't care if people die and suffer??? What's wrong with you? It's okay if people to suffer from a non contagious disease. I suppose it's consistent with you not caring about actively inflicting harm on people in a way which is not biologically contagious.

Should we not have had such a tremendous anti smoking campaign? That's not contagious either. Unless you want to say people encourage each other to smoke, in which case obesity is extremely contagious, so your argument falls over (not that it was in any was sensible or relevant to begin with).

We have no shortage of evidence showing that food advertising methods, portion sizes, etc etc etc etc etc cause obesity. It's all very well researched and published. We know that we could regulate things and reduce obesity rates. But in the name of freedom and liberty (which incidentally I agree with) we don't infringe on it. People literally die. Many of them. Because we don't want to step on basic rights in a very minor way such as advertising regulations etc.

On the other hand, you're advocating tremendous harm being done to people (the fact that you are not personally affected by it doesn't mean it isn't happening! It's horrible that I need to point this out to you), that's actively being done to people, including the removal of their most basic human rights including the right of freedom of movement and the right to socialise, for the sake of a far smaller problem, not to mention the extreme economic destruction which is going to cause incredible harm to the majority of Australians and we haven't much started feeling it yet.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Where is your evidence ? Give us some numbers from a verified source.




You say the most insane nonsense and then make a ridiculous request such as this? Honestly? You honestly want evidence (it exists in abundance, redundant as evidence for such a thing is) that literally inflicting the greatest causes of depression (loss of vocation, loss of income, loss of freedom of movement, social isolation, fear of other humans in the community, among others!) on millions of people has caused an increase in depression rates? Honestly? Really? You really feel the need to ask me for evidence of this? You're actually that ridiculous? You actually had that thought in your head and it managed to make its way through your fingers into the keyboard, and you actually clicked on POST REPLY without at any stage, nothing in you saying "Oh, wait, that's about as insane and ridiculous as anything ever could be, I probably shouldn't post that"? Seriously???

If I mentioned that hot, dry conditions made a bushfire worse than it would have been if it was cold and raining would you want evidence for that too? Honestly, what on Earth is wrong with you?


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## Smurf1976 (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> What point are you making?



Ultimately we're all commenting here in terms of our own thoughts and perceptions given that there isn't firm proof as to how this all pans out. In that context I acknowledge that your experiences and observations may differ from mine.

From what I'm seeing however, the reactions of individuals are almost entirely predictable. Thinking of all people I know well enough to have a perception of how they're going:

Those who tend to see the world in terms of conspiracy theories are indeed seeing the pandemic as a conspiracy. Those who look to science are looking to science. Those who look to religion are seeking God's help. Etc. Entirely predictable. 

Those who are inclined to make the best of any situation are making the best of this one. Those who whinge at anything they deem imperfect are whinging big time at this one.

Those who resort to humor or creativity amidst a crisis are indeed doing so here. Those who can't take a joke at the best of times sure can't take one right now.

Those who are highly strung risk takers look like they haven't slept in ages. Those who take a pragmatic view toward life and are aware of history seem relatively relaxed about the whole thing. 

Couples who work well together as a team are doing so now.

And so on. With one exception every single person I know appears to be responding in a manner that's entirely predictable simply by knowing them. The situation hasn't changed them, it has just pushed them further down whatever path they were already on.

I've not seen any evidence that it's breaking anyone or any relationship etc that didn't already have cracks there waiting for a trigger. Odds are that was going to fail at some point anyway.

That's not to say it's a good thing, only that to the extent it's breaking people it seems to be bringing forward what was inevitable at some point anyway. There'd be a point where that changes, where it knocks everyone over, but personally I'm not seeing it yet.

Acknowledged that others may have a very different perception based on what they're seeing personally.


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## Smurf1976 (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Should we not have had such a tremendous anti smoking campaign? That's not contagious either.



For the record I do not smoke.

If you wish to smoke then, so long as you do not do so in a manner which exposes me to the smoke, there is no harm to me from you doing so. I have no objection to you or anyone else smoking subject to that condition - don't do it in place which subjects others to the smoke.

Now, if you wish to walk around with a virus then I've no objection to you doing so in a manner consistent with the modern approach to smoking. That is, keep the virus to yourself and do not shed it in any confined place used by others including shops, workplaces, public transport and so on.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If I mentioned that hot, dry conditions made a bushfire worse than it would have been if it was cold and raining would you want evidence for that too? Honestly, what on Earth is wrong with you?




No doubt we have our opinions and experiences. When it comes to epidemics and their effects it's a medical issue and I prefer to take the advice of doctors and other experts in the area who no doubt weigh up the effects of mental anguish and isolation against the greater good. 

No politician in their right minds would impose these sort of measures if it wasn't necessary, the political risk is far too great. So take your campaign to them, trying to verbally beat me up or anyone else here is not going to change anything.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Ultimately we're all commenting here in terms of our own thoughts and perceptions given that there isn't firm proof as to how this all pans out. In that context I acknowledge that your experiences and observations may differ from mine.
> 
> From what I'm seeing however, the reactions of individuals are almost entirely predictable. Thinking of all people I know well enough to have a perception of how they're going:
> 
> ...




I can find some common ground and agree with you in a lot of this post, which is nice. The main thing I disagree with you on, and I disagree very strongly, is that this is not breaking things which would otherwise not be broken. Just relating it to a specific day to day observation that I make, as I said, I have literally never, ever seen anyone yelling or screaming or causing a scene at the local shopping area. Now I am seeing it multiple times per week, it is getting more frequent and is almost a daily occurence, I've sometimes seen it more than one example of it while doing my shopping in a single day. People literally screaming incoherently into the air, clearly out of their minds with stress, grief, confusion, or whatever it is they're suffering from. If these people were going to have it happen sooner or later, it's something I would have seen from time to time over the years and there would be an increase of it now. Clearly it's just not like that. Things, including people, don't always break. Once broken, they can be difficult to repair, very much including people. The depression example I have been talking about it a good example of this. Depression tends to hit people if they are hit with a sufficiently extreme set of circumstances, and not at all if their life is sufficiently free from extreme negativity, disruption, grief, etc. I'm happy to discuss it in detail if you wish, but it's very clear if you look at the situation that depression is being caused in people who would never have otherwise have had it, and we know from no shortage of psychology studies that once it occurs it is prone to being a chronic condition. Sure, some people are more predisposed than others, but we are still causing it in those people who otherwise would not have to deal with this terrible disease (a far worse disease than the virus). I just looked up the stats, and apparently depression has approximately a 2% suicide rate (I actually find that to be surprisingly high, but it's the figure from the US government department of health and human services). That makes it higher than the fatality rate of the virus if we include all the undetected asymptomatic cases, plus there's the fact that depression kills in ways other than suicide, plus it's typically a chronic debilitating disease. And, of course, it's not the only problem the lockdowns are causing, not by any stretch. I'm not sure about that 2% figure, but whatever the actual figure is, I would personally guess that the suicide rate from depression caused by this situation would be greater than the normal depression suicide rate, because in this case we have a huge number of people affected in the backdrop of a world which is generally looking grim, as opposed to the usual scenario where there are more people willing and able to help and a general scene of normality.

As for relationships, yes, I can say that all the breakups I've seen were in relationships I wouldn't have considered perfect to begin with, and yes, I've seen friends have their relationships strengthened. In general, yes, those personality types have had predictable responses, and in some cases it's quite comical. I have friends ranging from the most incredible 'every single detail of this is being meticulously planned by a nefarious enemy wanting nothing more than to control us and make us suffer' through to 'the benevolent government is doing the best possible job they could have ever done and I love them for it', both of which are insane positions, but yes, they're extreme versions of those peoples' general attitudes. I like your take on it and have observed the same. In my observations though, there have been more exceptions, but the general rule does hold.

In terms of domestic violence, I have definitely seen it cause incidents which in normal circumstances never would have occurred. As I mentioned earlier, I spoke to a couple of police about it on the weekend, and they were clearly exhausted and overwhelmed with it, and said they'd never seen anything remotely like what they're getting now in that regard, and they specifically said it was showing up in plenty of people who were of the type they'd never ever get callouts for and in their words (word for word to the best of my recollection) "COVID is turning so many good people into people doing bad things they would never have otherwise done". They're getting called into very different types of households with different types of people from those they'd usually get domestic violence calls from, as well as just the sheer increase in cases. I definitely know people personally who have done things out of character which they wouldn't have done in normal circumstances. Some bad (domestic issues, substance abuse), some just crazy/weird (including one in myself, buying a second car I have absolutely no use for, despite not being a car enthusiast and planning to leave the country as soon as it's an option, which considering I had no money and no stuff, even clothes, back in March/April, is a bit of a turnaround) and of course some positive things, like using the opportunity to take up hobbies like gardening or getting pets or knitting etc.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> For the record I do not smoke.
> 
> If you wish to smoke then, so long as you do not do so in a manner which exposes me to the smoke, there is no harm to me from you doing so. I have no objection to you or anyone else smoking subject to that condition - don't do it in place which subjects others to the smoke.
> 
> Now, if you wish to walk around with a virus then I've no objection to you doing so in a manner consistent with the modern approach to smoking. That is, keep the virus to yourself and do not shed it in any confined place used by others including shops, workplaces, public transport and so on.




I'm a non smoker, but I like freedom and liberty, and I don't like the restrictions put on smokers. Personally I would generally prefer people to be allowed to smoke where I am even though I would prefer not to be exposed to the smoke. When people are allowed to smoke there's just a greater feeling of freedom, an ability to relax and do whatever you like. I do think people should be able to avoid it if they want to, and common sense should be used (don't go up and smoke right next to someone who isn't smoking, at least not without asking if they mind, etc). To have a blanket 'no business is allowed to allow smoking' rule, to me, is draconian. There should be pubs etc which allow it. There should be comedy clubs with smoking areas. I actually miss people smoking in clubs and pubs etc, not because I miss the smoke, but because I miss the feeling of freedom.

Similar with the virus, I'd be happy if people were basically free to do whatever they wanted, but with social distancing rules (don't go within XX distance units of another person without their consent, but if they consent, go to their home and lick each others' nostrils if you want to). Banning people from visiting friends is just insane, unless perhaps it was for a plague/smallpox etc type virus. Shutting down almost all businesses as we have in Melbourne is just ridiculous. I broke my phone while exercising yesterday. Today I went to the nearest shopping centre to buy a new one. Only banks, an optometrist and shops which sold food were open. JB HiFi etc won't be open for another two months. I'll be getting a friend in Thailand to buy me one and having it sent over; yet another loss to the Australian economy.


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## Sdajii (17 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> No doubt we have our opinions and experiences. When it comes to epidemics and their effects it's a medical issue and I prefer to take the advice of doctors and other experts in the area who no doubt weigh up the effects of mental anguish and isolation against the greater good.




Your blindness is almost so extraordinary that it's somehow admirable or fascinating or something.

The models assumed the virus was far worse than we now know it is. The experts were not weighing up all the different things against each other. This was one of the big problems. Doctors are not economists. surgeons are not virologists, and neither of them are psychologists. Each is only an expert in their own area. The job of the government is to get the advice from all of these experts, weight it all up, and make decisions based on it. In this case, they said "Oh, this is a virus issue, we'll consult the virologists" and went with those recommendations.



> No politician in their right minds would impose these sort of measures if it wasn't necessary, the political risk is far too great. So take your campaign to them, trying to verbally beat me up or anyone else here is not going to change anything.




How extraordinary that you would have such faith in politicians! Do you honestly think politicians are so competent or honest? Think about what you would say about the world's most high profile politician before asking that question, and consider that there plenty who are far, far worse, even by your estimation of him.

Your defeatist attitude is disappointing. By discussing things as part of a community as we have here, or one on one, we explore ideas and hopefully develop our opinions to become better. When presented with a good idea we should adopt it, and when presented with a bad idea we should reject it and explain to the person why we reject it and encourage them to do so. Of course, we're all human and we may make errors, and discussion with others helps to identify and correct them. The whole concept of democratic governments is that people do this and then vote for the person who will do the best job. Your painfully destructive attitude is that we should blindly trust the government and if someone is wrong we should make no effort to have a discussion with them!


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## over9k (17 August 2020)

Wow guys, I just love what you've done with this thread.


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## SirRumpole (17 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Your painfully destructive attitude is that we should blindly trust the government and if someone is wrong we should make no effort to have a discussion with them!




Yes but you are having a discussion with me not them ! (the politicians). I just point out that the need for restrictions has been adopted across the political spectrum, so it's unlikely that everyone has been fooled by something insignificant.

What attempt have you made to make your views known to the people who make the decisions ? Have you written to the Premier, your local member, the CMO or any of their innumerable deputies pointing out the error of their ways ?

I  understand why you are strung out about this. You have had a hard time and I'm sorry about that. 

Maybe I've seemed a bit insensitive for which I apologise. In any case we are just banging our heads together achieving nothing. If you want  something done then you need to tell it to someone who can change the way things are.


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## Sdajii (18 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes but you are having a discussion with me not them ! (the politicians). I just point out that the need for restrictions has been adopted across the political spectrum, so it's unlikely that everyone has been fooled by something insignificant.
> 
> What attempt have you made to make your views known to the people who make the decisions ? Have you written to the Premier, your local member, the CMO or any of their innumerable deputies pointing out the error of their ways ?
> 
> ...




That was a really impressive job of missing the point and asking a question which doesn't make sense in context of what you are responding to.


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I can find some common ground and agree with you in a lot of this post, which is nice. The main thing I disagree with you on, and I disagree very strongly, is that this is not breaking things which would otherwise not be broken. Just relating it to a specific day to day observation that I make, as I said, I have literally never, ever seen..........




A possible explanation is where we're located and thus what we're seeing.

You're in Melbourne?

I'm in SA and of those whose circumstances I'm aware of they're in SA, Tas, NSW or the ACT. Plus I'm Facebook friends (but not "real" friends) with someone in the UK - I wouldn't say I know them well but from their FB posts they're getting along with only some minor hassles.

I'd expect that those in Melbourne are going to be seeing it somewhat differently yes.



Sdajii said:


> I broke my phone while exercising yesterday. Today I went to the nearest shopping centre to buy a new one. Only banks, an optometrist and shops which sold food were open. JB HiFi etc won't be open for another two months.




I do think that not being able to repair or replace something reasonably essential, and a phone fits into that category pretty clearly as a means of communication, is going too far yes.

That alone would push some people to crime if the lack of a working phone is preventing them contacting family, earning an income or even simply paying their bills if that's their only internet access.

Communications are essential in my view and the primary method of communication for most these days is a mobile phone. It's not outright essential to life (though it could be in an emergency), but it's certainly up there. No working phone = can't contact a doctor, police, anyone really.


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## SirRumpole (18 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Communications are essential in my view and the primary method of communication for most these days is a mobile phone. It's not outright essential to life (though it could be in an emergency), but it's certainly up there. No working phone = can't contact a doctor, police, anyone really.




Buy one on the internet ?

Free delivery.

Just one example.

https://www.telstra.com.au/mobile-p...Vi9eWCh3-Pg3AEAQYBCABEgI1z_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


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## Sdajii (18 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A possible explanation is where we're located and thus what we're seeing.
> 
> You're in Melbourne?
> 
> ...




Yes, I'm in Melbourne. As I've mentioned several times in this thread, this obviously gives me a look at some of the worst of the effects on people. As I've also mentioned in this thread, I keep in contact with quite a number of people in QLD and NSW every day, and not many in SA but I do know people there including my sister in Adelaide. It's hardly surprising that by far the worst of what I know of is in Melbourne.

Incidentally, Melbourne is my hometown but I haven't lived here for many years and just happened to be visiting here intending on a 1-2 week stay before returning abroad. I've lived in QLD and NSW, and for the previous six years had been living abroad. Most of my friends and focus are not on Melbourne. My perspective is not as narrowly focussed on my own area as most.



> I do think that not being able to repair or replace something reasonably essential, and a phone fits into that category pretty clearly as a means of communication, is going too far yes.




I assumed that it would be possible to walk into a large shopping centre with $1,500 in my pocket and walk out with something as essential as a phone (or laptop, etc). Especially in the current situation, these devices are absolutely critical. It's not possible to buy an electric device without an electronic device, it's not possible to buy one in cash. Heck, if you're stuck at home, a television may be essential enough if you're bored out of your mind and watching telly is your thing, but you can't go to a shop and pick one up. Having a situation like this is obviously ridiculous.



> That alone would push some people to crime if the lack of a working phone is preventing them contacting family, earning an income or even simply paying their bills if that's their only internet access.
> 
> Communications are essential in my view and the primary method of communication for most these days is a mobile phone. It's not outright essential to life (though it could be in an emergency), but it's certainly up there. No working phone = can't contact a doctor, police, anyone really.




I think there's a lot about the situation in Melbourne which people interstate haven't thought about and don't realise is going on, because it doesn't affect them or they don't see it. Even a lot of people in Melbourne don't realise all of it. I assumed until yesterday afternoon that you would still be able to buy a mobile phone or computer from a shop. Clothing is essential but all the clothing stores are closed, even Target etc is closed, and K-mart is the only place I know of currently open and selling clothes. I know from recent experience (suddenly finding myself unexpectedly without funds or clothing, coming into winter for the first time in 8 years and being radically unaccustomed to cold weather after 8 solid years in hot weather, usually very hot) that access to clothing can be very important. Of course, I could go on and on.

Even people in SA, NSW and QLD I talk to are in many cases having psychological, financial or logistical problems, but imagine what it's like here.


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## Junior (18 August 2020)

In Victoria, last year, one of the deadliest flu seasons on record we saw 150 deaths.  This year we have recorded, so far, 334 deaths from COVID19.  And this is WITH draconian restrictions and social distancing measures.  Cleary if we took no action and went about business as usual, that death figure would be well into the '000s.  We have recorded ZERO flu deaths so far this year.  ZERO.

The argument that this thing is mild, and not something we need to take serious action against is not based in reality.  I'm not saying I agree with the current level of restriction in Victoria, and I completely acknowledge the massive damage these restrictions are inflicting on us.  But I'm saying this constant downplaying of COVID is unhelpful.  

Unlike the Flu, there is no vaccine, and it is clearly far more contagious and deadly.  The statistics make that very clear.


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## Junior (18 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I think there's a lot about the situation in Melbourne which people interstate haven't thought about and don't realise is going on, because it doesn't affect them or they don't see it. Even a lot of people in Melbourne don't realise all of it. I assumed until yesterday afternoon that you would still be able to buy a mobile phone or computer from a shop. Clothing is essential but all the clothing stores are closed, even Target etc is closed, and K-mart is the only place I know of currently open and selling clothes. I know from recent experience (suddenly finding myself unexpectedly without funds or clothing, coming into winter for the first time in 8 years and being radically unaccustomed to cold weather after 8 solid years in hot weather, usually very hot) that access to clothing can be very important. Of course, I could go on and on.




We bought a new laptop a few days ago, and picked it up same day.  There is still an abundance of online options, and click & collect available.


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## Sdajii (18 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Buy one on the internet ?
> 
> Free delivery.
> 
> ...




As it happens, as I was walking to the shops (with $1,500 in cash in my pocket) a buy order of mine went through, leaving me with a bank balance of $80.03. I need a new phone urgently.

It's really easy to shrug off other peoples' problems, isn't it? It's really easy to suggest easy solutions when you don't have to think about anyone else's circumstances, isn't it? Life is really easy for everyone when you disregard any issues going on in anyone else's life which you haven't thought about and you just merrily assume they have no obstacles in their life, right? It's appalling that you don't feel disgusted by yourself with most of your posts in this thread. Never mind the fact that with something like a phone I like to see and feel it before choosing it, or the fact that I might actually want it in less time than it takes to get anything delivered around here at the moment.

All things considered, what's most likely going to be my best option in this situation is to get a friend in Asia to buy me a new phone and post it to me. I had a few grand in cash (mostly in the local currency) at my home in Asia, which I had a friend go and collect back in March after I had become trapped here. I've asked her to use that money to buy me a phone and post it to me, and keep some for her time.


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## SirRumpole (18 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's really easy to shrug off other peoples' problems




Really, you need to get all this hate out of your soul, I'm simply trying to suggest alternatives.

As Junior said, click and collect may be available, if you are not familiar with that, you buy something online then pick it up from the store.

One example.

https://www.officeworks.com.au/information/click-and-collect


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## boofhead (18 August 2020)

I live in NW Tasmania. It had tight lockdowns for a 3 week period. Enough people did the correct thing that the issue was soon under control. K-mart etc. were all shut. Lucky to have a smaller population than Melbourne. Less dense living. Most of the outbreak confined to hospitals and hospital staff & patients. Three hospitals closed - if an emergency happened some people needed to travel an extra 90 minutes (some need to travel already 60 minutes+) and this is not remote Australia. Defence Force called in. That period had reduced economic activity beyond the normal restrictions. Basically since then no community transmission. Many locally see tight lockdowns to control it and eliminate it from the community as a good thing. The day the tight restrictions lifted massive increase in people in vehicles and in town shopping.


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## qldfrog (18 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Those who look to science are looking to science



Sorry, i look at numbers i thought it was science more than looking at headlines.when sciences back global warming due to CO2..which actually most real scientists do not or is presented as our medical chiefs, this is no more science than Goebel


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Buy one on the internet ?
> 
> Free delivery.
> 
> Just one example.




Trouble is, if the only means of internet access someone has is a phone, and that's broken, well then the idea of buying one online only works if they visit a friend and use their computer etc to make the transaction which somewhat goes against the idea of a lockdown.

There's quite a few who don't have any communications other than a mobile. Renters in some cases, younger people fairly commonly, and I'd expect that quite a few who have lost income and are needing to minimise expenses would have ditched fixed broadband along with the magazine subscriptions, gym membership and everything else not essential to living.

Communications hardware of any sort isn't critical to life but it's up there especially given current circumstances. Same with a fridge and so on - not strictly essential but pretty close to it.


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

Junior said:


> We bought a new laptop a few days ago, and picked it up same day. There is still an abundance of online options, and click & collect available.



Point is - which ones can be done without accessing the internet?

If what someone needs to buy is hardware to get themselves back online be that a mobile or other equipment then buying it online doesn't work. 

I see the reasons for lockdowns and so on but I can fully understand the problem with this one. It potentially leaves people with a problem and no means of fixing it other than to break the law.


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## SirRumpole (18 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trouble is, if the only means of internet access someone has is a phone, and that's broken, well then the idea of buying one online only works if they visit a friend and use their computer etc to make the transaction which somewhat goes against the idea of a lockdown.




Yes, I was thinking of the poster who broke his phone, but obviously is still able to communicate with us.

I was just trying to give him a few options, but there would others along the lines you suggest and there doesn't seem to be a lot of options unless they have someone living with them who has a phone. Although if they did visit a friend and wore a mask as did the friend, they could probably do it while maintaining a social distance.


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## basilio (18 August 2020)

One can buy a range of phones sims and plans in supermarkets. Also Kmart.

There are difficulties in getting stuff without the internet. Picking up a phone and sim should be on the low side of problems.

I imagine if one was looking for a you beaut top of the range or particularly special model there may be a problem. But otherwise...


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## SirRumpole (18 August 2020)

basilio said:


> One can buy a range of phones sims and plans in supermarkets. Also Kmart.
> 
> There are difficulties in getting stuff without the internet. Picking up a phone and sim should be on the low side of problems.
> 
> I imagine if one was looking for a you beaut top of the range or particularly special model there may be a problem. But otherwise...




Good point. Prepaid mobiles in supermarkets.


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

basilio said:


> One can buy a range of phones sims and plans in supermarkets.



Fair point there yes. 

I've no idea what phones supermarkets sell but assuming we're talking about smartphones which are not locked to any particular network and which readily tether to a PC etc then it does the job yes. 

I'm not arguing against the lockdown per se, just seeing that phones are a reasonably essential thing to have and which can fail at short notice.


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## basilio (18 August 2020)

This contribution from an Emergency Doctor in a Melbourne hospital brings together many threads on the COVID discussion.

* As an emergency doctor in Melbourne, fatigue is settling in. The political blame game isn’t helping *
Stephen Parnis

*The question for us on the frontline, the unemployed and the distressed must be ‘What do you need?’ not ‘Who is to blame?’*

I work with inspiring people in emergency medicine. Doctors and nurses whose compassion sets a benchmark I strive to follow, and allied health workers and support staff who quietly and humbly provide care to people who can be having the worst day of their lives.

Sarah is a senior nurse I have known for 20 years. She is calm in a crisis, practical and confident. She is a colleague I turn to when I find the going difficult. Together, we regularly provide medical and nursing leadership in one of my emergency departments.

This week, for the first time I can remember in those two decades, and despite our masks and face shields, I could see that Sarah was distressed and in tears.

We had a patient who had been brought in by ambulance, struggling with her breathing. Sarah was trying to find a place in our department to give her the assessment and treatment she needed, and it was proving impossible.

This was the fourth such case in two hours.

Delays, a lack of space, people in pain and distress – these are not new to us in emergency. But in the era of Covid-19, it has become an even harder slog, and it gets to us all at some stage. It is well over a month since the second Covid wave hit us, and we have been under the pump ever since.

We have learned in healthcare that to effectively deal with these problems, we must be transparent and honest with each other. We also know that assigning blame achieves very little.

Stephen Parnis: ‘We have learned in healthcare that to effectively deal with these problems, we must be transparent and honest with each other.’
What we experience at work, we see dissected in the daily news. Healthcare worker infections and isolation. Aged care centres facing collapse. The daily Covid case number, and whether the trend is favourable or not. The daily death toll, to which I hope we never become desensitised.

While I can take this news in moderation, I cannot abide another aspect of this all-consuming public discussion – the political blame game.

My emergency specialist training taught me the value of teamwork, prioritisation and a culture of collaboration. When lives are on the line, it’s time for the team to be united and focused, learning as we go and debriefing when the crisis has passed.

My years in medico-political leadership taught me that policy development and decision-making can be complex, difficult processes. All too often, the adversarial system between governments and their opposition counterparts degenerated into name-calling and personal attacks. The result: poor policy, regrettable decisions and expensive, lamentable outcomes.

When we faced the first wave of the pandemic in Australia, the sense of impending disaster was matched by bipartisan political cooperation and dedication to service – unmatched in my lifetime. The national cabinet process, rapid allocation of resources, prompt political support for expert recommendations – all led to the achievement of national preparedness that was unimaginable only months earlier.

Fast-forward to today, and that common sense of purpose has, to a great extent, unravelled.

*There are many urgent, critically important issues being faced by communities here and abroad. As I write, many aged care facilities remain at risk of severely compromised care. Hospitals in Melbourne are struggling under the load of patient numbers and staff roster depletion. Businesses of all sizes face the prospect of permanent closure, and their employees are contemplating the devastation of long-term unemployment. The mental health of almost every member of the community is under constant threat.*

And yet, so much energy is being diverted away from the necessary, immediate priorities.

I welcome ongoing analysis of our response to the pandemic at every level, whether it be an individual family trying to cope with lockdown, a business trying to keep its employees engaged and productive, or a health setting trying to preserve the safety of its workers and the lives of its patients.

*The question for us on the frontline, the unemployed and the distressed must be “What do you need?”, not “Who is to blame?”*

And this doesn’t only apply to families, businesses and hospitals. It applies to governments, opposition parties and the media.

*At a time when so much is at stake, the main focus for all of us should be on saving lives, preventing outbreaks, mitigating economic damage and protecting the mental health of an entire nation.*

Fatigue is setting in, but that cannot be allowed to degenerate into the political games we tolerate in peacetime.

• Dr Stephen Parnis is a Melbourne emergency physician and a former vice-president of the Australian Medical Association
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ling-in-the-political-blame-game-isnt-helping


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## satanoperca (18 August 2020)

This is not war! It is a crisis because we have allowed ourselves to accept/believe everything is okay in the world, it has and never will be.

We have become weak.


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> It is a crisis because we have allowed ourselves to accept/believe everything is okay in the world, it has and never will be.



It was pretty obvious by late January that there was a pandemic going on around the world.

Sadly Australia believed the politics of others rather than slamming the borders firmly shut when the need was apparent. We gained a couple of weeks of "business as usual" foreign tourism and are now paying $ billions and with countless other problems. 

Classic case of saving 10c and then paying $10k for having done so.


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## satanoperca (18 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It was pretty obvious by late January that there was a pandemic going on around the world.
> 
> Sadly Australia believed the politics of others rather than slamming the borders firmly shut when the need was apparent. We gained a couple of weeks of "business as usual" foreign tourism and are now paying $ billions and with countless other problems.
> 
> Classic case of saving 10c and then paying $10k for having done so.




A classic case of having no leaders anymore, warriors who are willing to fight (it was only a short time in the past, that strength, commitment and willingness to sacrifice for one's tribe was what made leaders), to save their loved society/community, instead we are left with fools that couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag.


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## over9k (18 August 2020)

You idiots. 

The politicians needed to stall long enough to sell all of their own investments off. Then once they've flogged everything for at worst a minimal loss, then do the right thing closing the borders etc and plunge the economy. 

I bet they buy up a whole bunch of stuff just before they announce reopenings or whatever too.


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

over9k said:


> The politicians needed to stall long enough to sell all of their own investments off. Then once they've flogged everything for at worst a minimal loss, then do the right thing closing the borders etc and plunge the economy.




I generally don't say it so as to avoid being labeled as a conspiracy theorist but there's a reason why I look for discrepancies between the real world and politics yes. 

It's another indicator in the box. Like the rest it's imperfect and shouldn't be taken literally but it can give some clues when a divergence occurs.


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2020)

boofhead said:


> I live in NW Tasmania. It had tight lockdowns for a 3 week period. Enough people did the correct thing that the issue was soon under control. K-mart etc. were all shut.



I'll simply observe that the Tasmanian approach of intentionally using the proverbial sledgehammer to crack a nut seems to have been far more effective than the approach taken elsewhere.

Outbreak > throw everything at it > smashed it > open up.

Economically that brutal but brief approach seems to have done far less damage than the less severe but drawn out process that seems to have been preferred in some other states. 

I do wonder about the longer term implications of that for the relative economic performance of the states. Logically I'd think that all things considered, the overall situation is a positive for Tas at least relative to Vic. Decisively smashed it versus ongoing drama - there's bound to be at least some people, those with money and who can choose where they live, paying attention there.

WA, NT, SA, Qld likewise I can't see how they'll lose at least in relative terms. Less virus for those focused on the medical side and less disruption for those focused on the freedom etc argument. At least a portion of those who can choose their location and who don't specifically need to be in the big two cities are likely to give the idea of relocation a thought.


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## sptrawler (18 August 2020)

From a W.A perspective, the government and companies have managed to keep the mining sector running through this period, if that had failed who knows what situation Australia would be in.


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## Junior (19 August 2020)

I'm concerned about the decisions which are looming in 4 weeks' time in Victoria.  The easy option will be to extend the current restrictions by a further two weeks.  But then what?  If you ease too quickly, we'll likely see the numbers creep back up again, and we'll continue to be locked out of the rest of Australia and the world.  But if they try to continue to impose tight restrictions, the population will get increasingly restless, the economy will be stuffed, and then all of a sudden it's Christmas time.  Good luck telling people they aren't permitted to see their family at Christmas.

It's going to be interesting.  Get this vaccine here ASAP.


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## basilio (19 August 2020)

over9k said:


> You idiots.
> 
> *The politicians needed to stall long enough to sell all of their own investments off. Then once they've flogged everything for at worst a minimal loss, then do the right thing closing the borders etc and plunge the economy. *
> 
> I bet they buy up a whole bunch of stuff just before they announce reopenings or whatever too.




Good call.
That happened in  the US.

*At Least Five U.S. Senators, Briefed on Coronavirus, Sold Stocks Before Market Crash*
Calls are growing for a number of U.S. senators to resign, following reports they sold millions of dollars’ worth of stocks after receiving privileged briefings about the threat of coronavirus to the global economy. ProPublica reports Republican Richard Burr, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, unloaded as much as $1.7 million of his holdings on February 13 in 33 separate transactions. At the time, he had access to classified information about the coronavirus and was receiving daily intelligence briefings. The stock market began plummeting a week after Burr’s sales and has since lost about 30% of its value.


At least four other senators also sold major holdings ahead of the crash: Republicans James Inhofe of Oklahoma, Kelly Loeffler of Georgia and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, as well as Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein. Senator Feinstein is also on the Intelligence Committee, and Senator Loeffler is married to the chair and CEO of the New York Stock Exchange.


The news came as NPR published a secretly recorded audiotape of Senator Burr addressing business leaders and members of the elite Tar Heel Circle at a luncheon in the Capitol Hill Club in Washington on February 27, when there were just 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S.


Sen. Richard Burr: “There’s one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history. It’s probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”


After the NPR and ProPublica stories broke, the hashtag #BurrMustResign trended on social media, and even far-right Fox News host Tucker Carlson called for Senator Burr’s resignation.


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## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

Junior said:


> Get this vaccine here ASAP.




Agreed, get the vaccine ASAP, so we can inject you and your family with it first, I will sit back and wait to see what the ramifications are to a rushed vaccine on you first.

Glad you offered yourself and family as the guinea pigs.

"Mr Morrison subsequently told 3AW that the vaccine, if distributed in Australia, would “be as mandatory as you can possibly make it” but that “there are always exemptions on medical grounds”.


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## over9k (19 August 2020)

I get peter zeihan's newsletter and he had this to say about vaccines: 


The dream vaccine would be a one-shot vaccine delivered via nasal inhalant (no syringe required!), be made from yeast, safe to store at room temperature, grant 100% immunity, and last a lifetime. Assuming for the moment such is possible, we're not very likely to hit the bull's eye on the first try.

Instead it's more than merely possible the first "successful" vaccine to market will be one that requires two shots given two months apart, is fabricated using the pancreatic fluids of a llama, only lessens the impact of COVID rather than outright preventing it, must be frozen for transport, and must be re-administered every six months. If that's the one that wins the race, you can bet we'll keep developing alternatives until we find something better.

But while we develop better alternatives, we'll hit another trough. Manufacturers of glass and syringes and stoppers are holding their breath, planning to surge output to whichever candidate proves successful first. Should the first across the finish line not be the ideal vaccine, we will then need to retool everything to supply the manufacturing process for a better vaccine once it proves that it is indeed better. Based on the product requirements, there will be a delay of weeks to months.

Which vaccine is deemed "successful" first matters. No matter which candidate proves successful, global vaccine manufacturing for a fundamentally new cocktail is unlikely to be able to generate more than 100 million doses in calendar year 2020, with an additional one billion to two billion in 2021. If the "winning" mix requires two doses or biannual injections, cut the number of people who can be immunized in half. If it requires two doses and biannual injections, then by the end of 2021 there might not even be enough doses for all American citizens.

So yes, we'll likely identify something "successful" at some point in the fourth quarter of 2020, but add in the time lags for manufacturing and distribution, and the almost-certainty that Americans will have to share some doses with other nations, and the absolute most optimistic schedule possible for achieving mass inoculation of the American population won't be until at least April 2021.


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## Junior (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Agreed, get the vaccine ASAP, so we can inject you and your family with it first, I will sit back and wait to see what the ramifications are to a rushed vaccine on you first.
> 
> Glad you offered yourself and family as the guinea pigs.
> 
> "Mr Morrison subsequently told 3AW that the vaccine, if distributed in Australia, would “be as mandatory as you can possibly make it” but that “there are always exemptions on medical grounds”.




OK, well that's an aggressive response.  

Do you think it's better if there is no vaccine?  I didn't say "inject me and my family with an untested vaccine".

Perhaps you're a bit thick.  I'll re-word it just for you.  "Get an effective, tested, safe vaccine here ASAP"


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## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

Junior said:


> Perhaps you're a bit thick.  I'll re-word it just for you.  "Get an effective, tested, safe vaccine here ASAP"




Well you might be right, I am a bit thick.

You second statements makes a little more sense, but me being thick can break it apart further.
1. Effective - define (say 90%>)
2. Tested - well if we follow the standard, well demonstrated and implement procedure of developing vaccines we are years away
3. Safe - the more interesting variable in your statement. Would it be safe if 0.5%-1% had adverse reactions from the vaccine that we greater than the virus? Think about it, you are obviously more intelligent than me, so look forward to your response.

Yes, I must be thick, bald, angry, racist (just hate white people), mentally unstable, agressive, righteous, loving (sometimes), I could write many more things people have called me. Please feel free to add.


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## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

Junior said:


> "Get an effective, tested, safe vaccine here ASAP"




Yes, but it has to be tested on someone.


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## Junior (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Well you might be right, I am a bit thick.
> 
> You second statements makes a little more sense, but me being thick can break it apart further.
> 1. Effective - define (say 90%>)
> ...




The whole point is to suppress the virus and get everyone back to work and back to our normal lives without fear of catching this virus and getting very sick.  Making everyone sick with an unsafe vaccine clearly does not achieve that.

I'm not so distrusting of the Government and Health authorities in this country, to think that they would knowingly unleash an unsafe vaccine on the population.  What would be the point?  People would get sick and then we'd be in an even worse position.  I can potentially see something like that happening in Russia, where the motivation is to brag to the rest of the world about having the first vaccine, with little regard for the actual health of its citizens.

That's not how it works in Australia, and in my view it's conspiracy theory which is not grounded in reality, to think otherwise.


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## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

I think its disturbing that we have to rely on contracts with other countries in order to produce essential medicines like vaccines.

Considering that its likely that there will be more instances of novel viruses we badly need to develope the capacity to research and manufacture vaccines for ourselves.

Selling off CSL was probably a mistake , as has been privatisation of many essential industries, which has resulted in us being left weaker not stronger.


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## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

Junior said:


> I'm not so distrusting of the Government and Health authorities in this country, to think that they would knowingly unleash an unsafe vaccine on the population.  What would be the point?




You need to look at problems from several angles first.

I don't think the govnuts would intentionally impose a vaccine of the population that was harmful, but that does not mean that they are not negligent or make mistakes. Trust must be earned, it cannot be bought, there is a major difference.


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## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think its disturbing that we have to rely on contracts with other countries in order to produce essential medicines like vaccines.
> 
> Considering that its likely that there will be more instances of novel viruses we badly need to develope the capacity to research and manufacture vaccines for ourselves.
> 
> Selling off CSL was probably a mistake , as has been privatisation of many essential industries, which has resulted in us being left weaker not stronger.




Why worry about that, when no one has a vaccine that has been proven to be even effective.

I do agree with your comments about selling off essential industries.


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## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It was pretty obvious by late January that there was a pandemic going on around the world.
> 
> Sadly Australia believed the politics of others rather than slamming the borders firmly shut when the need was apparent. We gained a couple of weeks of "business as usual" foreign tourism and are now paying $ billions and with countless other problems.
> 
> Classic case of saving 10c and then paying $10k for having done so.




This makes no sense.

If you do want to believe the official data, the vast majority of cases in Australia now, can be traced back to a family where four infected individuals spread it around, and the source of this came in long after normal international travel had been banned.

However you look at it, according to official figures, this virus was in negligible numbers in Australia for some time, then *after* we loosened up the restrictions (obviously after we first had them) the largest numbers were seen. There is absolutely no way to back up what you're saying in any way which makes sense. Logistically, shutting down everything without notice causes incredible problems. Realistically, it would have been responded to with big public opposition, because the public had not yet been trained to have an irrational level of fear of the virus.


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## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

basilio said:


> This contribution from an Emergency Doctor in a Melbourne hospital brings together many threads on the COVID discussion.
> 
> * As an emergency doctor in Melbourne, fatigue is settling in. The political blame game isn’t helping *
> Stephen Parnis
> ...




Good grief, if you take the propaganda you'd swear than no one had ever died before and that usually people go to hospital, get magic pills or a bandage, and walk out within minutes in perfect health and a reasonable expectation of immortality.

In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).

So how can we take it seriously when medical staff are apparently beside themselves because of all this death? We literally don't have more people dying. With less people at work, less people on the road, less people out riding horses and having boat accidents and sporting injuries etc, and the entire number of deaths attributed to the virus for the entire 'pandemic', all added together over the entire thing, not even coming to the number of people who die on a typical *single day* (say, the average of last year or the year before), how can it makes sense for healthcare professionals to be at breaking point and so distressed at all this death? What death?

How blatant does this propaganda need to be for people to realise it's just narrative propaganda?


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).




You are referring to a country where restrictions are in place to limit the spread of this disease and show the effectiveness (so far ) of these measures.

 Try to compare to a country where there are fewer effective measures to control the spread of covid and you get this.



> *Results*  There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19–reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths.
> 
> *Conclusions and Relevance*  Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.




https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980


----------



## basilio (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Good grief, if you take the propaganda you'd swear than no one had ever died before and that usually people go to hospital, get magic pills or a bandage, and walk out within minutes in perfect health and a reasonable expectation of immortality.
> 
> In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).
> 
> ...



Sdajji, do you have any* evidence* that Dr Parnis is either making up or wildly exaggerating the
impact of COVID 19 illnesses on the current Victorian health system ?

*Because otherwise, in my observation,  your response to Dr Parnis is pure libel.*

Lets look at it thanks. 
https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/dr-stephen-parnis/12111468


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You are referring to a country where restrictions are in place to limit the spread of this disease and show the effectiveness (so far ) of these measures.
> 
> Try to compare to a country where there are fewer effective measures to control the spread of covid and you get this.




Were you deliberately trying to totally miss the point, or are you being obtuse?

I was talking about the propaganda coming from within Australia, for Australians. That propaganda is saying that healthcare workers are overwhelmed by the incredible mass of death they are dealing with, unable to cope.

I was pointing out that the death rate has not increased. The total number of deaths of the virus in Australia, were these workers are, has not even reached the number of deaths of a single normal day in Australia.

The majority of those few deaths has been elderly people. Elderly people routinely die. This is the reality, whether you freak out or panic or think it's a nightmare or don't care at all or are sadistic enough to enjoy it, it's what always happens.

So, it makes no sense to say that healthcare workers in Australia are overwhelmed with novel devastation occurring in Australia.

Your comments are irrelevant, whether you just didn't bother to read or think, or whether you're deliberately trying to misrepresent the situation.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

basilio said:


> Sdajji, do you have any* evidence* that Dr Parnis is either making up or wildly exaggerating the
> impact of COVID 19 illnesses on the current Victorian health system ?
> 
> *Because otherwise, in my observation,  your response to Dr Parnis is pure libel.*
> ...




I literally just explained how blatant it is!

How can healthcare workers in Australia be overwhelmed and devastated by deaths when the death rate has decreased rather than increased and almost all the deaths are occurring in elderly people (who routinely die in large numbers, whether now or last year, and even now the vast majority of elderly who are dying are not in any way impacted by the virus, they're just dying because human beings don't live forever and die when they get too old)?

There's isn't more death than usual, there's less. The number of deaths is absolutely tiny! How do people who routinely deal with routine deaths get psychologically scarred by a lower than usual number of deaths?


----------



## Knobby22 (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> How blatant does this propaganda need to be for people to realise it's just narrative propaganda?




Here is some more to rile you. 600,000 sufferers of post Covid syndrome in the UK after approximately 7% of the population has now caught it.
https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads...d-573775?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

The nations that have let this infect their population are going to suffer long term consequences including reducing their countries competitive position and GDP in the long term. Norway, South Korea, NZ even us, are in a much better position.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Here is some more to rile you. 600,000 sufferers of post Covid syndrome in the UK after approximately 7% of the population has now caught it.
> https://inews.co.uk/news/long-reads...d-573775?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
> 
> The nations that have let this infect their population are going to suffer long term consequences including reducing their countries competitive position and GDP in the long term. Norway, South Korea, NZ even usetc. are in a much better position.




This is unrelated to what I was saying.

Having said that, the UK has had a total number of cases of around half the number of people you are saying are suffering from "post Covid (sic) syndrome"

Pretty impressive considering the majority of people who catch it get little to no symptoms and no permanent issues, but somehow double the number of people who catch it have symptoms. Nice story, bro, needs more dragons though.


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

It seems so hard for people to do basic research these days, we are no longer a clever country, but rather full of idiots! Harsh statement : YES

*Population clock*


On 19 August 2020 at 01:50:52 PM (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:


*25,649,401*

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at *31 December 2019* and assumes growth since then of:

one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
*one death every 3 minutes and 15 seconds,*
one person arriving to live in Australia every 3 minutes and 58 seconds,
one Australian resident leaving Australia to live overseas every 7 minutes and 5 seconds, leading to
an overall total population increase of one person every 2 minutes and 37 seconds.

These assumptions are consistent with figures released in Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2019 (cat. no. 3101.0). 

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs...1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument


Now let's just play a little numbers game, basic maths.

For the last 7 months we have had 400 deaths due to Covid,

That would amount to a death every? Take a guess before looking further .............
.
.
.
.
.
.
Every 756 minutes or 12+hours

But wait, there is more, just not a free set of steak knives, according the abs stats,  *232 *people, who had friends, parents, sisters, brothers and maybe children died in the same time period.

But somehow, the vast majority of people seem to think, actually cannot think, that they (their physical bodies) just evaporated on this earth, they did not die from disease or viruses or anything else, GOD came down and took them to heaven.

The human race is f---kd.


----------



## Junior (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I literally just explained how blatant it is!
> 
> How can healthcare workers in Australia be overwhelmed and devastated by deaths when the death rate has decreased rather than increased and almost all the deaths are occurring in elderly people (who routinely die in large numbers, whether now or last year, and even now the vast majority of elderly who are dying are not in any way impacted by the virus, they're just dying because human beings don't live forever and die when they get too old)?
> 
> There's isn't more death than usual, there's less. The number of deaths is absolutely tiny! How do people who routinely deal with routine deaths get psychologically scarred by a lower than usual number of deaths?




My wife is a nurse, and she works with in a COVID ward with patients who have the virus.  

This is not propaganda.  

It's not about the number of deaths, as you point out we have kept this under control in Australia.  Although, clearly the number of deaths would go through the roof without the measures we have been employing here.

It's about the fact, that this is a new, unknown virus, with no vaccine, which is highly contagious.  Hospital staff have to wear gowns, masks and faceshields for 10 hours straight, usually with one short break where you get to take the gear off and get some air for 20 minutes (in a small break room, not outside).  They can barely have a drink of water or take a piss, as you need to carefully remove & dispose of all PPE so as not to spread the germs onto your skin and other surfaces, and then go and put on a whole fresh set.  

You are dealing with patients who are completely isolated from family and terrified, where hospital staff need to minimize interactions with their patients, and when they are interacting with the patient they are yelling through face masks & shields.

Major hospitals in Australia is in a constant state of being near capacity in normal times.  You add in this new virus, and the new heightened procedures around PPE and isolating infected patients, and then add in hospital staff who are taking far more leave than normal (and being forced to isolate every time they get a mild cold and are waiting on COVID test results).  On top of that, aged care residents have been relocated into the hospital.  Add up all these factors, and the hospitals in Melbourne are straining under the pressure.

It's not propoganda, it's what is happening in the real world.  Unless you work in a major Melbourne hospital, then you wouldn't know.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Your comments are irrelevant, whether you just didn't bother to read or think, or whether you're deliberately trying to misrepresent the situation.




You should know, you are pretty good at that.

Deaths are only part of the story.

A lot of people who eventually recover from covid spend a long time in hospital , some on ventilators others just very sick. It's inevitable that some of the patients will transmit the disease to doctors & nurses who will then have to take time off and be replaced if possible. If they can't be replaced then the burden falls on the remaining staff.

I can imagine (unlike you who seems to be completely uncaring about the condition of those with the disease and have made many obnoxious comments vastly offensive to the people who have suffered with this disease and the relatives of those who have died) that the staff shortages and extra workload imposed on the medical staff would have an extremely debilitating effect on those medical staff trying to deal with the problem as well as all the other diseases they have to deal with every day.

Your attitude towards those dedicated people is truly disgusting. You accuse others of insensitively to those who are suffering a temporary loss of liberty but you yourself are one of the most uncaring creatures towards those suffering real illness and loss.

I've had enough of you. Pi$$ off.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Junior said:


> My wife is a nurse, and she works with in a COVID ward with patients who have the virus.
> 
> This is not propaganda.
> 
> ...




This is 100% off topic and does not address the concepts you are responding to.


----------



## basilio (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I literally just explained how blatant it is!
> 
> How can healthcare workers in Australia be overwhelmed and devastated by deaths when the death rate has decreased rather than increased and almost all the deaths are occurring in elderly people (who routinely die in large numbers, whether now or last year, and even now the vast majority of elderly who are dying are not in any way impacted by the virus, they're just dying because human beings don't live forever and die when they get too old)?
> 
> There's isn't more death than usual, there's less. The number of deaths is absolutely tiny! How do people who routinely deal with routine deaths get psychologically scarred by a lower than usual number of deaths?



Sadiji, you take ignorance and arrogance to absolutely heroic levels.

What Dr Parnis was highlighting is quite on par with the experience reported by ASF posters who work in hospitals in Victoria as well as those  overseas.

Specifically in Victoria the hospital system has been severely stressed in the past 4-6 weeks with the surge in COVID cases. These have been the hundreds of people affected through nursing homes as well as the broader community

At the same time as they were dealing with this surge hospital staff  including doctors have been falling sick and dying from COVID. That certainly won't help how they feel.

I posted this story in full and bolded particular parts specifically to show that Dr Parnis  recognises the  broader mental health and economic issues around COVID.

Your disrespect for Dr Parnis and inability to recognise POV that actually support your concerns aren't doing you any favours.


----------



## Junior (19 August 2020)

Sdajii, I was responding to your post below, where you claimed that it's "propaganda", that someone who works in a hospital would talk about the pressures they are currently under.  As I explained before, I have real world knowledge of this, and you very clearly don't.



Sdajii said:


> Good grief, if you take the propaganda you'd swear than no one had ever died before and that usually people go to hospital, get magic pills or a bandage, and walk out within minutes in perfect health and a reasonable expectation of immortality.
> 
> In reality, if you want to cherry pick the day on which Australia had the most virus deaths out of the entire 'pandemic', it's about 5% of the deaths Australia experiences on any normal day (say, the same date last year). Keep in mind that the vast majority of these people were going to die anyway. Literally most of them were elderly people in nursing homes. We haven't actually had people dying in increased numbers in Australia. We're seeing elderly people who usually die of flu or heart failure etc, die of this virus (and still, the vast, vast, vast majority of people who die are dying of regular stuff).
> 
> ...


----------



## Knobby22 (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This is unrelated to what I was saying.
> 
> Having said that, the UK has had a total number of cases of around half the number of people you are saying are suffering from "post Covid (sic) syndrome"
> 
> Pretty impressive considering the majority of people who catch it get little to no symptoms and no permanent issues, but somehow double the number of people who catch it have symptoms. Nice story, bro, needs more dragons though.




7% of the population is about 4.6 mil. So 4 mil, no problemo virus has little effect, 1 in 8 though, problemo.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I can imagine (unlike you who seems to be completely uncaring about the condition of those with the disease and have made many obnoxious comments vastly offensive to the people who have suffered with this disease and the relatives of those who have died) that the staff shortages and extra workload imposed on the medical staff would have an extremely debilitating effect on those medical staff trying to deal with the problem as well as all the other diseases they have to deal with every day.




See, this is a good example of your disgusting attitude coming through. You continually show no care for the huge numbers of people suffering and dying. You shrug them off as unimportant or deny their existence entirely, but hypocritically you accuse someone else of being uncaring if they want to make the world as good a place as possible for the most people possible.

It does not make sense to actively harm millions of people to protect a very small number of people. You are the one who does not care about those people, which you demonstrate by dismissing them as unimportant or their suffering/death non existent. I on the other hand acknowledge the whole situation and want what is best for the most possible people. If anyone here is heartless it's you, though I suspect it's more that you are just ignorant and suffering from tunnel vision.



> Your attitude towards those dedicated people is truly disgusting. You accuse others of insensitively to those who a suffering a temporary loss of liberty but you yourself are one of the most uncaring creatures towards those suffering real illness and loss.




What attitude towards dedicated people? I have nothing but respect for the people who are doing what they can to help people. What is bad is that the media cherry picks things, takes them out of context, paints them as the whole picture, and then people like you are successfully manipulated.



> I've had enough of you. Pi$$ off.




The irony of this statement... But, it does demonstrate your hypocrisy and general attitude nicely.


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Your attitude towards those dedicated people is truly disgusting. You accuse others of insensitively to those who are suffering a temporary loss of liberty but you yourself are one of the most uncaring creatures towards those suffering real illness and loss.
> 
> I've had enough of you. Pi$$ off.




Really, you are stupid, just use the ignore button. No need to make accusations that are incorrect, as I am the most uncaring creature towards people who cannot accept reality, life and death, which SIR is you.

Remember : IGNORE button


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

And can we get this discussion back onto the topic please or I will have to ask Joe to bring in a 4 year old to administer?


----------



## qldfrog (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You should know, you are pretty good at that.
> 
> Deaths are only part of the story.
> 
> ...



Never piss off a single generation especially when it control the money..
Junior post is valid aka melbourne and stress due  not to deaths..irrelevant numbers at this stage...but at the extra pressure due to isolations of both patients and meds
But i really doubt there is much pressure elsewhere..
But all is good: fake vaccine coming, mandatory innoculation to ensure we can not compare both vaccinated/ non vaccinated population outcomes.
CSL up and up as expected and discussed in the RESET thread


----------



## IFocus (19 August 2020)

Note covid deaths are concentrated in hospitals setup to treat the virus not spread across the nation as per normal mortality rates.

A small number of front line health works are copping this everyday in Victoria, these very people (legendary heroes) are risking their lives everyday along with their families for the better good of all.

And then they are accused of propaganda.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Junior said:


> Sdajii, I was responding to your post below, where you claimed that it's "propaganda", that someone who works in a hospital would talk about the pressures they are currently under.  As I explained before, I have real world knowledge of this, and you very clearly don't.




You have second hand knowledge, as do I. I have several friends who are nurses and one who is a senior medical practioner/advisor who routinely travels to a large number of hospitals.

Some individuals are obviously under pressure, but that's nothing unusual for people in hospitals.

Again, here's a summary:

If less people than usual are dying, it makes no sense to paint the overall picture as 'Extraordinary, unprecendented deaths causing overall grief to the overall medical community'.

When the vast majority of the very small number of people dying are elderly people from nursing homes, and they are always routinely dying, it doesn't make sense to paint the picture as something other than this.

I have friends who are nurses who have told me first hand stories about people dying at work that day, and being upset about it. That's nothing new. Hundreds of people die in Australia every day and many millions around the world. Every day. Most of them elderly. We now have less people than usual dying (it's marginal, call it normal) and the vast majority of people dying of the virus are elderly (the others are almost all cancer patients etc, and deaths from cancer etc aren't new either by the way).

The stories of grief from the healthcare workers are no doubt mostly genuine, but it is nothing new. These genuine stories are not propaganda when they're told to me by my friend or your associates of whatever relationship to you. They are propaganda when the media propagates them and demonstrates them as something extraordinary, often with exaggeration. It is propaganda because it is designed to give them deliberate implication that there is far more death than usual (there's marginally less) and that healthcare workers generally don't have to deal with death and suffering, at least to anything like this extent. The implication is that we have a phenomenal amount of extra death, when this is not remotely true.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> And can we get this discussion back onto the topic please or I will have to ask Joe to bring in a 4 year old to administer?




Sure if people want to accept facts.

The economic consequences of the Trump/USA approach to covid is a 32% reduction in GDP.

The economic consequences of Australia's approach is 10% reduction in GDP over the same period (links in a previous post).

Where would you rather live ?


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But i really doubt there is much pressure elsewhere..




Indeed, when some people get double their usual wages and go on a booze binge.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> Note covid deaths are concentrated in hospitals setup to treat the virus not spread across the nation as per normal mortality rates.
> 
> A small number of front line health works are copping this everyday in Victoria, these very people (legendary heroes) are risking their lives everyday along with their families for the better good of all.
> 
> And then they are accused of propaganda.




No one is accusing them of creating propaganda. As I said, their stories are mostly genuine. The misrepresentations of those stories are the propaganda. The media and government are responsible for that, not the healthcare workers. The media and government aren't putting their lives on the line or suffering etc.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Sure if people want to accept facts.
> 
> The economic consequences of the Trump/USA approach to covid is a 32% reduction in GDP.
> 
> ...




That's the most absurd comparison you could have come up with. Do you have any idea what a confounding variable is? You have plenty of them there. Do you have any idea what cherry picking is? You're very guilty of it here.

You could cherry pick to make the reverse argument, and far more easily.


----------



## IFocus (19 August 2020)

So the economy is in a holding pattern waiting for a vaccine, questions remain about how harmful the vaccine will be or how foreign actors will use the gullible to sow doubt about the vaccines.

Hope everyone understands the amount of people already injected with the testing for vaccines before its released to not only see if it creates an adverse reaction in the patient but also to see if the bodies response is showing an effect defence against the virus.
This is all done quite early in the testing stages.

Just saying the obvious.......


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> So the economy is in a holding pattern waiting for a vaccine, questions remain about how harmful the vaccine will be or how foreign actors will use the gullible to sow doubt about the vaccines.
> 
> Hope everyone understands the amount of people already injected with the testing for vaccines before its released to not only see if it creates an adverse reaction in the patient but also to see if the bodies response is showing an effect defence against the virus.
> This is all done quite early in the testing stages.
> ...




You want a statement of the obvious?

Okay, despite no evidence of mysterious afteraffects popping up from the virus, and it being a coronavirus respiratory infection (which people get literally billions of times every year), people are extremely concerned about it and it's one of the main arguments used against saying "The vast majority of people exposed to it don't get significant symptoms and the vast majority of the few who do get significant symptoms make complete recoveries", we have people saying we have to push a vaccine through quickly.

Vaccines are normally developed over many many years. In this case people are wanting literally billions of people, ideally the entire world population, injected with a vaccine which would be produced without the usual safety protocols used to ensure a vaccine is safe and won't cause damage.

We literally know what the virus does because like it or not, we already have tens of millions of documented cases and no evidence of mystery issues popping up later and nothing to suggest they will. We know a vaccine can't logistically be given to everyone anyway and we know that it's extraordinarily unlikely to be particularly effective, and we also know that without the normal period of testing we can't be sure it's safe, which is why in all cases in the history of the planet we've spent years, usually many years, testing them.


----------



## Knobby22 (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Sure if people want to accept facts.
> 
> The economic consequences of the Trump/USA approach to covid is a 32% reduction in GDP.
> 
> ...




That is something that will never be accepted. Doesn't fit the narrative.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> That is something that will never be accepted. Doesn't fit the narrative.




Are you for real? You honestly take your stance and can somehow say that facts are being omitted because they don't fit the narrative?

You honestly can't see that you're the one following the narrative and that your narrative is the one conveniently omitting critical facts?


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> That is something that will never be accepted. Doesn't fit the narrative.




Someone tried to put it all down to the Black Lives Matter campaign.


----------



## Knobby22 (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Are you for real? You honestly take your stance and can somehow say that facts are being omitted because they don't fit the narrative?
> 
> You honestly can't see that you're the one following the narrative and that your narrative is the one conveniently omitting critical facts?




You (and many others) are saying we should just let it spread to reduce the impact on the economy. (That is the narrative)

It hasn't worked.
Brazil has had to cut its iron output, USA is a mess, while most of Australia is doing pretty good except for Victoria due to government stuff ups. South Korea's economy, Norway, Taiwan,etc. all going strong.

A vaccine is looking closer so it looks like the countries that have treated it seriously are going to do a lot better. Better economies, better after effects (little post Covid syndrome).

It doesn't matter how deadly it is in the end, what matters is peoples reactions and if they are too scared, the effect is the same.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> You (and many others) are saying we should just let it spread to reduce the impact on the economy. (That is the narrative)
> 
> It hasn't worked.
> Brazil has had to cut its iron output, USA is a mess, while most of Australia is doing pretty good except for Victoria due to government stuff ups. South Korea's economy, Norway, Taiwan,etc. all going strong.
> ...




You're cherry picking and misrepresenting here.

I'm not saying do nothing. As I've said, I like what Sweden did. Bizarrely, people here have pointed out to me that Sweden didn't do nothing. I'm saying do nothing extreme. Don't infringe on civil liberties. Don't shut businesses (obviously within reason - if something is extraordinarily risky such as requiring people to squeeze into physical contact in large groups or whatever, then it is reasonable to stop that specifically).

Your cherry picked cases ignore the fact that you could cherry pick to display the opposite of your claims.



> It doesn't matter how deadly it is in the end, what matters is peoples reactions and if they are too scared, the effect is the same.




This is partially true, which is why I have been so against the scare propaganda, as you'll have seen in this thread this afternoon. Using the death of a small number of elderly people from nursing homes to terrify the entire population and justify shutting down businesses and removing peoples' human rights is insane.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> However you look at it, according to official figures, this virus was in negligible numbers in Australia for some time, then *after* we loosened up the restrictions (obviously after we first had them) the largest numbers were seen. There is absolutely no way to back up what you're saying in any way which makes sense.




Your argument makes sense only if you're seeing that some level of virus, lockdowns and so on is a desirable thing.

My argument is based upon having zero of either.

Had we shut the borders when the problem first became apparent overseas, the challenge faced by Melbourne and Sydney would have been no greater than the problem dealt with in remote areas. No cases, just don't let any in, done.

Once we brought the virus into the country, that's when lockdowns etc became necessary to try and control it but you don't need any of that if you don't have a virus here in the first place.

Given the problem was known to exist overseas, that was the time to shut the borders and implement proper quarantine for any returning residents. Instead we still had flights and cruise ships arriving even as the problem was headline news.

Once the virus was in the community, that's comparable to the first spark which leads to the bushfire. That's the point where the nightmare begins and it's the point you ideally want to avoid if at all possible. Perhaps it may already have been too late at that point but it's at least plausible that it wasn't given the lack of known cases in Australia at the time.

If the only problem we had was a lack of international travel well then that wouldn't be great but it would be drastically better than the situation we actually have right now. A purely economic problem that could be at least partially worked around by encouraging Australians to travel domestically versus lockdowns. 

We could have given every worker two weeks' extra leave on the condition that they travel at least 200km from home for that period and stay at a commercially operated hotel, motel, caravan park etc. Split the cost of that two weeks between business and government - both would have taken a bit of a hit but been drastically better off than what we've ended up with and it would have worked around much of the economic problems of the international cut-off.

I know which I'd rather.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Instead we still had flights and cruise ships arriving even as the problem was headline news.




Nailed it there.

The Ruby Princess fiasco was the start of it all. If we hadn't let people off and instead turned the ship into a floating quarantine centre, then things may have been a lot different.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (19 August 2020)

every so often, if I want a giggle, here I am.

.
read 3 or 4 days worth
.
.
.
Bye


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> You (and many others) are saying we should just let it spread to reduce the impact on the economy. (That is the narrative). Simplified, but not factually correct.
> 
> It hasn't worked.
> Brazil has had to cut its iron output, USA is a mess, while most of Australia is doing pretty good except for Victoria due to government stuff ups. South Korea's economy, Norway, Taiwan,etc. all going strong.
> ...



Agreed, it is all about the sentiment that drives markets.

Comments are in red


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Sure if people want to accept facts.
> 
> The economic consequences of the Trump/USA approach to covid is a 32% reduction in GDP.
> 
> ...




I tried to clone myself, didn't work, so I can only live in one place at a time, bummer.

Couldn't care about the USA, all I care about is Australia, selfish prick that I am.

As for the 10% drop in GDP, the tide is still in, as I have stated before, wait until the govnuts stop feeding the people cocaine and industries and we will see the real economic damage this so called virus has caused.

Until then ....


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Your argument makes sense only if you're seeing that some level of virus, lockdowns and so on is a desirable thing.
> 
> My argument is based upon having zero of either.
> 
> ...




I think this thinking is flawed for several reasons.

Firstly, we can't just shut down all international travel on a knee jerk reaction as soon as there's the first hint of any virus anywhere. That's just not possible for all sorts of reasons.

Secondly, it was likely already in Australia when we first heard about it.

Thirdly, it wouldn't keep the virus out anyway. If you think New Zealand had the virus mysteriously come in from outside the country after being virus free for over 100 days, then you must accept that it is impossible to keep out (note of course that for almost the entire planet, this isn't an option because most nations are not islands). If you don't believe that this is so incredibly capable of reaching New Zealand without requiring a live human host, then it has been lurking in the population of New Zealand undetected for over 100 days, in which case you must accept that this is an incredibly mild virus and the propaganda/scare campaigns are the only significant problem, in which case lockdowns and travel bans are inappropriate.

We always were going to have to allow Australians to be repatriated. At the very first hint of the virus there were countless Australians away on holidays, business trips, etc. I'm an Australian citizen who was outside the country at the time. Having spent almost all of the previous six years outside Australia I know countless Australians in various situations out of the country. You can't just snap your fingers and immediately stop people travelling. This may seem to be the case if you're someone with a regular job who only leaves the country to go to Bali every year or two for a week at a time, but there are so many people coming and going for so many reasons and you can't logistically or ethically stop them all with no notice. You say that it would only be an economic problem. Heh. It's actually a little painful to see that attitude existing when I personally know so many people who have been isolated from their families which depend on them, cut off from their way of life, etc. Not just Australians who can't get to their wives and children abroad, but I have foreign friends trapped in Australia with no money, no way to get home, and extremely challenging living circumstances. After all I've lost and the nightmare I went through earlier this year, I still know others who went through worse and in some cases continue to, because of travel bans.

Even if you do successfully stop the virus ever getting into the country (which was never at all possible), you must remain isolated indefinitely.

The virus just isn't that bad. I'm not advocating doing nothing, but even doing nothing wouldn't have been as bad as the current situation. The number of people I know who have been severely affected by this is huge. The number of people I know even in the USA (and there are several people I keep in regular contact with in the USA) who have been affected by the virus is tiny - one single person who has had it, and I can count the number of second hand cases I know of on my fingers, all of whom made complete recoveries. That's including the worst affected country on the planet.

It's amazing that people can look at this situation and not see that the cure is worse than the disease.

And even if you want to say "If only!" and "We shouldda...", we didn't, and here we are now, with the virus in effectively every country, including island nations such as Australia and New Zealand, even NZ, one of the most remote countries on the planet which went through some of the most extreme measures and supposedly had it completely eliminated for over 100 days, has it spreading now. So clearly, never letting it in was never an option, and either way, here we are, and we need a way forward, not regrets about what we should have done (especially if they're clearly wrong).


----------



## macca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes, but it has to be tested on someone.




In the other thread on Covid I linked an interview with Bill Gates where he said he thought it was OK for 100% of the people to have side effects from it

leave me out of that one


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

macca said:


> In the other thread on Covid I linked an interview with Bill Gates where he said he thought it was OK for 100% of the people to have side effects from it
> 
> leave me out of that one




The government wants to make it mandatory. I'm not sure I like that. Some people are likely to have an allergic reaction and we don't have a compensation scheme like other countries.


----------



## qldfrog (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The government wants to make it mandatory. I'm not sure I like that. Some people are likely to have an allergic reaction and we don't have a compensation scheme like other countries.



if it is working, let people worried about being sick take a dose, but please  please I am not yet in a China jail, do not force that crap on me; or worse, on kids this would be worse than 1984


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> if it is working, let people worried about being sick take a dose, but please  please I am not yet in a China jail, do not force that crap on me; or worse, on kids this would be worse than 1984




Maybe people who think that getting the virus is nothing to worry about would test it, after all it couldn't be that bad could it ?


----------



## macca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Maybe people who think that getting the virus is nothing to worry about would test it, after all it couldn't be that bad could it ?




I think it really should be tested in the normal way for the normal time

The side effects could last for decades


----------



## wayneL (19 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> So the economy is in a holding pattern waiting for a vaccine, questions remain about how harmful the vaccine will be or how foreign actors will use the gullible to sow doubt about the vaccines.
> 
> Hope everyone understands the amount of people already injected with the testing for vaccines before its released to not only see if it creates an adverse reaction in the patient but also to see if the bodies response is showing an effect defence against the virus.
> This is all done quite early in the testing stages.
> ...



Stage 1 and 2 vaccine trials are relatively easy to breeze through, it's stage 3 where almost all vaccines, and all drugs for that matter fall over.

It is here, because of the much larger sample size, where s*** starts going wrong. 

(The stuff you learn having CSIRO scientists as clients, eh?)


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Maybe people who think that getting the virus is nothing to worry about would test it, after all it couldn't be that bad could it ?




F---k stop being so righteous. 

All viruses that can lead to death are bad, but we are discussing individual cases, but rather the economic cost to an economy and those that provide to it.

You really are stupid.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F---k stop being so righteous.
> 
> All viruses that can lead to death are bad, but we are discussing individual cases, but rather the economic cost to an economy and those that provide to it.
> 
> You really are stupid.




The economic benefit of a working vaccine would be enormous, but you obviously believe the virus is mostly harmless so a vaccine would be a waste of time. Speaking of wastes of time , corresponding with you and your mate is just that so I'll take your advice a press the button.


----------



## Joe Blow (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> F---k stop being so righteous.
> 
> You really are stupid.




I think we can do without the swearing and the insults.

Constructive debate and discussion requires neither.

No more please.


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The economic benefit of a working vaccine would be enormous, but you obviously believe the virus is mostly harmless so a vaccine would be a waste of time. Speaking of wastes of time , corresponding with you and your mate is just that so I'll take your advice a press the button.




*You can even teach a dead dog new tricks, ignore button.*

And when you have found a working vaccine, please inject yourself, but before then, stop putting words in other people's mouths, no one has said that the virus is harmless, if it was we wouldn't be discussion the economic destruction that it is going and has caused.


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

Joe, with regard to you, I think you need to read through the posts before you assume that I and others are getting frustrated with the denial of some posters.


----------



## Joe Blow (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Joe, with regard to you, I think you need to read through the posts before you assume that I and others are getting frustrated with the denial of some posters.




OK, let's run the last exchange twice and see which version is more conducive to constructive and respectful discussion.

First version, with swearing and insults:



SirRumpole said:


> Maybe people who think that getting the virus is nothing to worry about would test it, after all it couldn't be that bad could it ?






satanoperca said:


> F---k stop being so righteous.
> 
> All viruses that can lead to death are bad, but we are discussing individual cases, but rather the economic cost to an economy and those that provide to it.
> 
> You really are stupid.





Second version, without swearing and insults:



SirRumpole said:


> Maybe people who think that getting the virus is nothing to worry about would test it, after all it couldn't be that bad could it ?






satanoperca said:


> All viruses that can lead to death are bad, but we are discussing individual cases, but rather the economic cost to an economy and those that provide to it.




Which version is better?


----------



## satanoperca (19 August 2020)

Will leave it alone. Back to sunshine and lollipops.


----------



## noirua (19 August 2020)

Jim Rogers: People Have No Idea How Bad the Coming Crisis is Going to Be
16 August
Https://jimroger.blogspot.com/2020/08/jim-rogers-people-have-no-idea-how-bad.html
Https://youtu.be/aPsxZ0b0wro


----------



## Junior (19 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Will leave it alone. Back to sunshine and lollipops.




whatever happened to Professor Robots?


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Firstly, we can't just shut down all international travel on a knee jerk reaction as soon as there's the first hint of any virus anywhere. That's just not possible for all sorts of reasons.



I can see much of your argument except this bit.

At some point there will be another pandemic that's a given. They are not an unexpected occurrence and with more people, higher living densities and so on they're likely to become more frequent not less.

The next one may be more or less serious than this one in terms of medical effects. It might have a 0.1% death rate or at the other extreme it might reduce Australia's national population by 50%+

It will happen again, the only question's about the details.

There's no proof as to exactly when the first case arrived I agree but it's undeniable that the virus came to Australia aboard a plane or ship from overseas. It's a fact that we know which ship exactly brought many cases and that even the airlines, who are not medical authorities, expressed concerns at what was going on at the time.

Now I could be wrong I acknowledge that but based on all I've seen, this looks to be a case of government not wanting to risk losing $1 billion so we delayed and lost $100 billion instead. Made up figures but order of magnitude that's the sort of thing we're looking at. Too worried about tourism and universities so we ended up stuffing the entire economy.

All of that won't fix it now but it's a lesson which needs to be learned. Clinging to the past and not wanting to jump off what's failing is hugely expensive in business and this seems to be a case of that. Cut off the tourism and "education" leg and save the rest versus having the whole body infected. We chose the latter.

Pandemics happen and we need to be ready to pounce when they do. A country needs to be alert for pandemics just as anyone doing something which depends on weather needs to pay attention to what's going on and a share trader needs to pay attention to whatever they're trading. Ignorance might be short term bliss but beyond that it ultimately ends in disaster. A time does come where getting out is the right move.

Arguments that we "can't" plant a different crop that'll do well with less water or that we "can't" exit our positions and go short or at least to cash look pretty flimsy once the wheels have fallen off the whole thing and all that's left is dust.

Go forward to say 2025 and the pandemic has passed and the economy's still recovering nicely. Then some disease outbreak occurs wherever and they lockdown a city - do we chance it that we dodge a re-run of this whole saga? Or do we quarantine arrivals there and then to limit the damage? I think most would vote for the latter..... 

If I suspect my house is on fire, I'm having a heart attack or the car's brakes are failing then I'll act accordingly until such time as it's proven to not be the case. I won't be chancing it in order to avoid the comparatively trivial cost and inconvenience of verifying the situation.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Or do we quarantine arrivals there and then to limit the damage?




With lessons learned about hotel quarantine and private security guards, yes.


----------



## Sdajii (19 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The government wants to make it mandatory. I'm not sure I like that. Some people are likely to have an allergic reaction and we don't have a compensation scheme like other countries.




Yeah, pressuring or effectively forcing people to take a virus which has had barely a fraction of the research time of any other vaccine in history is pretty much a recipe for conspiracy theorists to revolt and go crazy.

I have always been pro vaccinations. I have done my best to keep up with all my vaccinations (my parents/family prevented me from ever getting any as a child, they are hardcore antivaxers, and I had to work hard to chase it all up myself and catch up as a teenager, and I've done my best to keep on top of them since then), but this rush job with dodgy politics involved is something I definitely do not want, especially for a virus which isn't particularly dangerous anyway. 

Here's a concept, an elephant in the room which I still haven't heard anyone mention: I don't think the vaccine for a coronavirus is going to be effective. Coronavirus enthusiasts disagree with me. If you honestly think it is going to be effective, why can't you have it and let me not have it? We keep getting told herd immunity isn't really a thing, no one has achieved it (despite it clearly having been achieved, again, Sweden), but if you think the vaccine is going to work, great, you should believe it will protect you, so don't force it on me until/unless I'm satisfied it's safe. And having said that, I may well consider it to be safe and not be fussed about having it, other than the fact that I'm being forced to have it. Even if I think it's safe and do want it for myself (which I can't see happening because I don't believe they can make an effective coronavirus vaccine for the same reason they've been unable to make one for the last 50+ years including 17 years for SARS which is closely related and works in the same way and they've tried extensively to make one for, but I will keep an open mind), I don't want it to be forced on anyone who doesn't want it.


----------



## over9k (20 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's no proof as to exactly when the first case arrived I agree but it's undeniable that the virus came to Australia aboard a plane or ship from overseas. It's a fact that we know which ship exactly brought many cases and that even the airlines, who are not medical authorities, expressed concerns at what was going on at the time.
> 
> Now I could be wrong I acknowledge that but based on all I've seen, this looks to be a case of government not wanting to risk losing $1 billion so we delayed and lost $100 billion instead. Made up figures but order of magnitude that's the sort of thing we're looking at. Too worried about tourism and universities so we ended up stuffing the entire economy.




Do you really think that? Or was it just stalling to enable the politicians to get their money out first?


----------



## willoneau (20 August 2020)

I think you should go and read up about the coronavirus and how lethal it really is. It's not those that have mild reactions and recover, its those that end up having to need a bed in ICU and put on a ventilator to help survive and still may die. With only so many ICU beds in the Country if anyone that cannot get a bed will definitely die, I did read some were there is one ICU bed for every 130,000 people.


----------



## willoneau (20 August 2020)

So be thankful that you are in Australia for at the moment with all the restrictions placed on us if you or a member of your family need ICU to survive rest assured there is a bed.


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## willoneau (20 August 2020)

My sister inlaw works in a Melbourne hospital and tells me of the fear she lives with every day she walks in and the risk of taking it home to her husband and daughter.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Here's a concept, an elephant in the room which I still haven't heard anyone mention: I don't think the vaccine for a coronavirus is going to be effective. Coronavirus enthusiasts disagree with me. If you honestly think it is going to be effective, why can't you have it and let me not have it?




I'm no doctor but the basic concept relies upon it being effective most of the time in most people thus stopping transmission. That works despite the reality that vaccines generally aren't 100% effective as such.

It's much the same as rather a lot of things of a safety nature. The measures taken are less than 100% reliable but universal application means that the odds of failure in practice are low since an overall system failure requires that multiple individual failures all occur in very quick succession - not totally impossible but incredibly unlikely.

Everything from aircraft design through to the financial system relies on that basic principle that yes individual things go wrong but they're very unlikely to all fail at once. On the rare occasion that they do then it's headline news - plane crash, bank failure, etc.

That said, vaccinations do carry some risk that I acknowledge. I've no proof but suffice to say that a family member looked after an abandoned cat for a couple of years and I doubt it's a coincidence that it died the day it was vaccinated. Some sort of reaction there most likely - no proof but an amazing coincidence if not.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Do you really think that? Or was it just stalling to enable the politicians to get their money out first?




I'm taking it at face value but I do acknowledge that your assertion is at least possible yes.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Do you really think that? Or was it just stalling to enable the politicians to get their money out first?




I'm not saying you are wrong, but if you have any evidence that would be good.

If it turns out to be true it would be a gigantic scandal and heads should roll.

And I wouldn't put it past any politician on whatever side.


----------



## sptrawler (20 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm no doctor but the basic concept relies upon it being effective most of the time in most people thus stopping transmission. That works despite the reality that vaccines generally aren't 100% effective as such.



The other point is, it is well documented that the antibodies don't stay in the system for extended periods, therefore it may follow that it will require everyone to be vaccinated in the same time period to get effective coverage.


----------



## qldfrog (20 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The other point is, it is well documented that the antibodies don't stay in the system for extended periods, therefore it may follow that it will require everyone to be vaccinated in the same time period to get effective coverage.



Actually not really true latest research see ongoing immunity higher than initially thought..
Just a part of the propaganda to push mandatory immunisation in my opinion, and rack more ongoing yearly semi annual who knows sales

Now i have to find back the link i read yesterday...


----------



## qldfrog (20 August 2020)

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/354999
If you ever doubted the power of google propaganda, try to find the link with google..hard 
So damned if you do damned if you don't..good news on virus prohibited it seems


----------



## qldfrog (20 August 2020)

Note that might explain why 75% of people who catch the virus do not even react or have a fever, many might actually fight and kill it before symptoms whereas people without this previous exposure are easy targets


----------



## Knobby22 (20 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/354999
> If you ever doubted the power of google propaganda, try to find the link with google..hard
> So damned if you do damned if you don't..good news on virus prohibited it seems




Well the study was only released yesterday. I think it will spread (I guarantee it will be on Dr Norman Swans next program).

I have noticed health professionals in the field all becoming much more positive over the last month. Many said a vaccine is unlikely to work or work well but are now changing their tune. Also many said it would be years away and are now saying early next year if one of the phase 3 trials work.  The amount of money thrown at this is getting results.


----------



## Knobby22 (20 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Note that might explain why 75% of people who catch the virus do not even react or have a fever, many might actually fight and kill it before symptoms whereas people without this previous exposure are easy targets




Someone needs to do a study. Urgently.
And another thought, is this linked to Post Covid syndrome (that causes tiredness)?


----------



## againsthegrain (20 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Someone needs to do a study. Urgently.
> And another thought, is this linked to Post Covid syndrome (that causes tiredness)?




Bit off the original topic but still on the topic everybody is talking about now.  Does anybody know is there a test to check if somebody did have the virus at some stage and their body has the ability to create the antibodies? 
Is it logical to think people with immunity would not need to be vaccinated?


----------



## over9k (20 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm taking it at face value but I do acknowledge that your assertion is at least possible yes.






SirRumpole said:


> I'm not saying you are wrong, but if you have any evidence that would be good.
> 
> If it turns out to be true it would be a gigantic scandal and heads should roll.
> 
> And I wouldn't put it past any politician on whatever side.




Not here in AU, but there is in the U.S: 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ket-crash-spark-calls-to-resign-idUSKBN2171AL

https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-senators-sold-stock-before-virus-hit-sparking-insider-accusations/

https://www.breitbart.com/news/sen-loeffler-to-sell-stock-holdings-after-trading-scrutiny/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...ed-1-5m-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefings/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...securities-fraud-over-coronavirus-stock-dump/

I did read another one about a couple of democrat politicians too so it's not unique to the republicans. 

We're fooling ourselves if we think it didn't happen here.


----------



## Knobby22 (20 August 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> Bit off the original topic but still on the topic everybody is talking about now.  Does anybody know is there a test to check if somebody did have the virus at some stage and their body has the ability to create the antibodies?
> Is it logical to think people with immunity would not need to be vaccinated?




Very logical.
Not many in Australia have caught it though.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 August 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> Bit off the original topic but still on the topic everybody is talking about now.  Does anybody know is there a test to check if somebody did have the virus at some stage and their body has the ability to create the antibodies?
> Is it logical to think people with immunity would not need to be vaccinated?




https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ow-long-will-immunity-to-the-coronavirus-last


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/354999
> If you ever doubted the power of google propaganda, try to find the link with google..hard
> So damned if you do damned if you don't..good news on virus prohibited it seems



This is something that has not gone unnoticed in our household Mon Ami.

For anyone who doesn't know about it...

Duckduckgo gets more balanced and less propagandized results


----------



## SirRumpole (20 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> This is something that has not gone unnoticed in our household Mon Ami.
> 
> For anyone who doesn't know about it...
> 
> Duckduckgo gets more balanced and less propagandized results




Let's hope the PC brigade don't find out, or Duck will go the same way as Google.


----------



## qldfrog (20 August 2020)

But back to the point, it is good news.i think we need some.i also always wonder about the morale of someone sick and 65y old +.
With doom everywhere, he she must think this is the end and that does not help any recovery
A more balanced outlook would help and save lives


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 August 2020)

This thread has gone so far off topic I thought I might ask if anyone has a good recipe for Lime Marmalade.

gg


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This thread has gone so far off topic I thought I might ask if anyone has a good recipe for Lime Marmalade.
> 
> gg



The economy is on methamphetamines at the moment, and we all know how that ends.

On topic?


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I have noticed health professionals in the field all becoming much more positive over the last month. Many said a vaccine is unlikely to work or work well but are now changing their tune. Also many said it would be years away and are now saying early next year if one of the phase 3 trials work. *The amount of money thrown at this is getting results.*




Emphasis mine.

If the amount of money thrown at it didn't get results then that would raise some rather obvious and undeniable questions regarding society's reliance upon free market capitalism to drive innovation and the notion that this can overcome any problem so long as enough money's thrown at it.

From an ideological economic perspective vaccination as a solution to this pandemic would represent a massive symbol of capitalist success. Lots of money = solution found shows that the concept works. 

Conversely the argument that vaccination can't be developed and implemented as a solution is essentially an argument for big government protecting society from itself as the only real alternative.

Thus far I'm in the capitalist camp. Develop a vaccine and implement it seems like the least bad solution if it can indeed be done.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Thus far I'm in the capitalist camp. Develop a vaccine and implement it seems like the least bad solution if it can indeed be done




I wonder if cooperative capitalism would work better than the competitive capitalism we see at the moment.

Both have their pros and cons but need there be a lot of losers and one big winner, or maybe there is more than one solution ?

I suppose the market will decide but its out of the individuals hand and in government hands anyway as to which vaccine we eventually get.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I wonder if cooperative capitalism would work better than the competitive capitalism we see at the moment.
> 
> Both have their pros and cons but need there be a lot of losers and one big winner, or maybe there is more than one solution ?
> 
> I suppose the market will decide but its out of the individuals hand and in government hands anyway as to which vaccine we eventually get.



We do not have true competitive capitalism ATM. As I've stated 100 times on this forum what we have is... Choose your favourite term, crony capitalism or corporatism.

For what true capitalism might look like in terms of finding a vaccination for covid-19 you may want to look up game theory.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> We do not have true competitive capitalism ATM. As I've stated 100 times on this forum what we have is... Choose your favourite term, crony capitalism or corporatism.



Agreed although the situation is still a test of the present system.

Rather a lot of things in society are based upon the idea that we don't need to worry about "x" since if it happens then solutions will be found.

If solutions aren't found, well then that pulls the rug from under all sorts of things built upon that assumption.

That's an observation not me wishing for it.


----------



## wayneL (20 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed although the situation is still a test of the present system.
> 
> Rather a lot of things in society are based upon the idea that we don't need to worry about "x" since if it happens then solutions will be found.
> 
> ...




Yes but under the current system we have at situation of extreme moral hazard, aka the Fed put.

Under normal capitalist markets there's absolutely nothing wrong with entities underwriting their risk at their own expense.

That is a function of capitalism.

however we have a situation at the moment where the largest entities have their risk underwritten by the Federal Reserve (speaking in US terms of course, however the same applies in all other Western economies, to a greater or lesser degree).

This is not a function of capitalism at all, rather a function of corporatism, crony capitalism... Or if we really want to get down to, it is economic fascism.

And in my opinion economic fascism has a very incestuous relationship with economic marxism.

In a functioning capitalism, as so abley highlighted by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, players will position themselves for the inevitable black swan/fat tail event.

Crony capitalism seeks to eliminate or severely curtail natural Black swan events.

This is severely distortional and deleterious to the functioning of a normal capitalistic society.

I understand exactly what you're observation is, but what I am saying is, if I can put it a little bit crudely, is that it sucks dogs bollocks and nothing to do with true capitalism.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 August 2020)

QAN management today indicated that a return to International travel is not envisaged before July 2021. 
So there goes international tourism, Sydney, Melbourne, and Cairns will be significantly affected. I cannot see domestic tourism making up for it. 

QAN flights are flying within Australia at 20% of capacity. Many of those passengers would be FIFO, ADF, Family related, with the Shane Warne fragrance corporate mob sitting on Zoom and a call from HR. 

If not exactly rooted, we are close to it. The government will print more money. 

Another thought, can cryptos print more crypto, or will they be extinguished by the tide of paper moolah.

gg


----------



## cynic (20 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> QAN management today indicated that a return to International travel is not envisaged before July 2021.
> So there goes international tourism, Sydney, Melbourne, and Cairns will be significantly affected. I cannot see domestic tourism making up for it.
> 
> QAN flights are flying within Australia at 20% of capacity. Many of those passengers would be FIFO, ADF, Family related, with the Shane Warne fragrance corporate mob sitting on Zoom and a call from HR.
> ...



Now that you've so graciously gotten us back onto topic, here's that recipe you were asking for:
https://www.taste.com.au/recipes/lime-marmalade/722ae550-5e12-41ea-b343-3c15efff4417


----------



## qldfrog (20 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Emphasis mine.
> 
> If the amount of money thrown at it didn't get results then that would raise some rather obvious and undeniable questions regarding society's reliance upon free market capitalism to drive innovation and the notion that this can overcome any problem so long as enough money's thrown at it.
> 
> ...



all good if it was just a matter of piling up blocks to make a bigger building or similar but here , we have to deal with real science/nature, not fake dollars
Does anyone believe that with enough money thrown at it, we can go back in time and travel to have a first class seat at the waterloo battle?
Science still has a role to play:
with enough money, you can hide and misled a lot , people could believe they are back in time, etc but it will not happen;
basically the vaccine story, science and reality clash and no one to tell the real story
for info: HIV vaccine failure 40y down the track give you an idea of the challenges ahead:
https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/development-hiv-vaccines

In my limited but not negligible amount of knowledge, efforts would be better rewarded trying to find efficient treatment more than a wet dream vaccine, but the denial of already existing reasonably effective and working treatments, prevention  in favor of a vaccine can hardly be more than a brainwash attempt.To what purpose?
People have never had so much information available, freely and to all, yet have hardly been worse at processing, analysing it.
To go back to the economic thread: CSL today at $300, up 10% since the beginning of august, I hope many have followed my fake vaccine argument and the money to be made with CSL..
I will recommend selling within 6 months ofinitial deployment to avoid the backslash and class actions to follow :-(, unless government cover that side

I genuinely know understand how these Nigerian scammers can be so successfull


----------



## PZ99 (24 August 2020)

800 billion down the swanny > https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...e/news-story/8d6b004276cb447763b75dcf492b54a8


----------



## satanoperca (24 August 2020)

PZ99 said:


> 800 billion down the swanny > https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...e/news-story/8d6b004276cb447763b75dcf492b54a8




So can you put a price on a human life? I have asked this before, I will give it a crack based on above article.

Calculate the possible number of deaths if we did very little, say the USA
Population 330M
Over the next year 330K of deaths
Percentage of deaths by population of 0.1%

or Sweden
Population 10M
Over the next year 10K of deaths
Percentage of deaths by population of 0.1%

So let's take the 0.1% mortality rate
Aussie Pop 25M
Expected number of deaths if we did nothing 25k

Cost of our actions expected to be $800B
By doing something, we have saved 96% of lives
_Average costs of saving those lives $33M each_

Never knew I was worth so much.


----------



## PZ99 (24 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So can you put a price on a human life? I have asked this before, I will give it a crack based on above article.
> 
> Calculate the possible number of deaths if we did very little, say the USA
> Population 330M
> ...



If you take that to its logical conclusion you could breakdown how much of that $33m is allocated to your vote


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> all good if it was just a matter of piling up blocks to make a bigger building or similar but here , we have to deal with real science/nature, not fake dollars
> Does anyone believe that with enough money thrown at it, we can go back in time and travel to have a first class seat at the waterloo battle?
> Science still has a role to play:
> with enough money, you can hide and misled a lot , people could believe they are back in time, etc but it will not happen;



Agreed.

My point though is that rather a lot of things in society are based upon the notion that money can indeed solve any problem.

That's the underlying rationale for the argument that we don't need to worry about, for example, the loss of helium gas from the planet, soil acidification or the depletion of phosphate deposits since throwing enough $ at it will come up with a solution. If that's not true, if money can't buy time travel, well then that does blow the entire basis of rather a lot of what humanity is doing to pieces.

What I'm seeing is that a forced acceptance that science can't be overcome by economics has broader implications. Once that's accepted in the context of a COVID-19 vaccine, anyone arguing from the science side in a science versus economics argument about any subject is going to be far harder to dismiss. It's not as though the pandemic's going to be forgotten in a hurry.

I'm basically seeing it as a plausible trigger for a broader shift in thinking. With humanity and in particular economics slapped firmly in the face by science reality, it's going to be far harder to dismiss credible scientific arguments on the basis that economics will always come up with a solution to any problem.

I'm seeing it as a possible trigger for a broader refocusing basically. Economically that's not so much good or bad as it's a change of focus and an ending of the past ~40 years where finance was seen as the be all and end all of everything.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm basically seeing it as a plausible trigger for a broader shift in thinking. With humanity and in particular economics slapped firmly in the face by science reality, it's going to be far harder to dismiss credible scientific arguments on the basis that economics will always come up with a solution to any problem.




Excellent statement.

Maybe we will see more science based economics in areas like bio security where we seem to have dropped our guard on things like plant and animal imports in the name of so called free trade agreements and therefore risk our agricultural products being subject to diseases hitherto unknown here.

The open borders idea has definitely gone too far, but reality has definitely put the kybosh on a lot of thoughts about unrestricted travel. Pity Border Farce was so keen on keeping a few refugees out , but not those with money to spend (like in casinos).


----------



## Junior (24 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So can you put a price on a human life? I have asked this before, I will give it a crack based on above article.
> 
> Calculate the possible number of deaths if we did very little, say the USA
> Population 330M
> ...




In the US they took extreme action, in dollar terms.

By far the biggest stimulus package of anywhere on the planet. 3 times the size of what Obama unleashed in the GFC.


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## satanoperca (24 August 2020)

Thanks Junior for adding to the discussion of the economics of a society dealing with a virus that takes life.
Hence my question: How much is a life worth should be rephrased to: How much can a community pay to save a life?


----------



## SirRumpole (24 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Thanks Junior for adding to the discussion of the economics of a society dealing with a virus that takes life.
> Hence my question: How much is a life worth should be rephrased to: How much can a community pay to save a life?




That's a reasonable question, but medical decisions are not made by accountants they are made by doctors who take a Hippocratic oath to "do no damage" first, ie they don't go around making decisions that take lives, it's not their job.

If a person is comatose and not likely to recover, the patient's family in consultation with the doctors and any previously expressed wish of the patient make the decision not to continue. 

ie the decision about allocation of medical resources is made in terms of likely outcome not finances, that's the only sensible way of doing it.


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## over9k (25 August 2020)

It's not even a joke.


----------



## Junior (25 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Thanks Junior for adding to the discussion of the economics of a society dealing with a virus that takes life.
> Hence my question: How much is a life worth should be rephrased to: How much can a community pay to save a life?




You've started with the premise that Australia has spent $33m per life in the fight against this virus.

I'm saying, the US has spent somewhere in the order of $3 trillion dollars in COVID stimulus, to save how many lives?  There's 175,000 dead and counting, versus 400 in Aus.   

My point is, if Australia took NO action to stop the virus, the economy still would have taken a massive hit, and the Govn't still would have provided massive stimulus.

There is a massive cost in taking action against this virus, in terms of restrictions and shutdowns, but in the case of the US, they only imposed very limited restrictions or shut downs, and they've somehow ended up spending far more than we have propping up the economy through this pandemic.


----------



## wayneL (25 August 2020)

Junior said:


> You've started with the premise that Australia has spent $33m per life in the fight against this virus.
> 
> I'm saying, the US has spent somewhere in the order of $3 trillion dollars in COVID stimulus, to save how many lives?  There's 175,000 dead and counting, versus 400 in Aus.
> 
> ...



But it would have only been the one economic hit.

It is highly likely that the virus will blitz through Australia anyway at which time we will take a second huge economic hit.

No matter which way you look at it these totalitarian lock downs are downright stupid and counterproductive.... unless one has megalomaniacal fantasies like dear leader down in Victoria.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> But it would have only been the one economic hit.
> 
> It is highly likely that the virus will blitz through Australia anyway at which time we will take a second huge economic hit.
> 
> No matter which way you look at it these totalitarian lock downs are downright stupid and counterproductive.... unless one has megalomaniacal fantasies like dear leader down in Victoria.




The dear leader will have to face an election sometime which is when it will all be sorted out.


----------



## jbocker (25 August 2020)

I note a lot of comment on the likelihood of a cure for Covid19. But maybe *prevention* is (as always) better than the cure. I note Starpharmas update announcement today if this should be effective then I imagine quite some success, even when a cure has been developed. OK, *If* it ever gets developed. 
Its Aussie developed too.
(I hold)
https://www.starpharma.com/assets/a...y for COVID-19 – development update final.pdf


----------



## sptrawler (25 August 2020)

Well it is really starting to bite now, some big brands biting the dust.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ores-in-wake-of-pandemic-20200825-p55ozf.html
From the article:
_Fashion retailer Mosaic Brands has swung to a massive $212 million loss and will close as many as 500 stores across the country after the retailer was ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic.

At its full-year results announced on Tuesday, Mosaic's chief executive Scott Evans, who operates brands such as Noni B, Rivers, Millers and Katies, told shareholders the company had been "utterly derailed" by the coronavirus pandemic.


Mosaic reported a statutory loss before tax of $212.1 million, a 1900 per cent decline on the prior year's statutory profit of $11 million. The huge fall was partially due to $113.5 million in impairments of the company's brand names and other goodwill.

Revenue fell 16.5 per cent to $736.7 million. The retailer did not declare a dividend_.


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## Sdajii (25 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well it is really starting to bite now, some big brands biting the dust.
> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ores-in-wake-of-pandemic-20200825-p55ozf.html
> From the article:
> _Fashion retailer Mosaic Brands has swung to a massive $212 million loss and will close as many as 500 stores across the country after the retailer was ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic.
> ...




It's very much worth noting that reporting such as this, which is extremely widespread, is very dishonest.

It is not the virus which has "ravaged" or "utterly derailed" etc these businesses. It is government-imposed restrictions. The virus itself would not have done more than a very small fraction of this damage without a scare campaign and government-imposed restrictions. These businesses would still exist, those jobs would still exist, with the virus and without the human-produced destruction.


----------



## cutz (25 August 2020)

The grim economic news just keeps coming, the stockmarket seems totally disconnected, can't work out why.. Is it a trap ??


----------



## sptrawler (25 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's very much worth noting that reporting such as this, which is extremely widespread, is very dishonest.
> 
> It is not the virus which has "ravaged" or "utterly derailed" etc these businesses. It is government-imposed restrictions. The virus itself would not have done more than a very small fraction of this damage without a scare campaign and government-imposed restrictions. These businesses would still exist, those jobs would still exist, with the virus and without the human-produced destruction.



Quite possibly, but we can only work with actual events, not speculation. The end result may well have been the same whether the virus caused it or the restrictions, maybe the business model is no longer viable.
There are a lot changes happening in the retail sector, this event may have just accelerated them?
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...mic-sinks-value-of-malls-20200825-p55p08.html
From the article:

_Australia’s largest shopping mall owner Scentre Group has sunk to a $3.6 billion loss as the coronavirus pandemic wiped away the value of its properties.

The retail landlord is the latest to feel the scourge of the pandemic, with the steep decline in Westfield’s malls leading the group to report a statutory loss of $3.613 billion for the six months to June_.

The decline in the mega retail complexes, has been in decline overseas, for some time. It will be interesting to see, if when this is over it returns to business as usual, or the online model gets a bigger foothold.


----------



## Sdajii (25 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Quite possibly, but we can only work with actual events, not speculation. The end result may well have been the same whether the virus caused it or the restrictions, maybe the business model is no longer viable.
> There are a lot changes happening in the retail sector, this event may have just accelerated them?
> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...mic-sinks-value-of-malls-20200825-p55p08.html
> From the article:
> ...




You can say that hypothetically they may have eventually died anyway from another cause, and you may be correct... which is a really interesting spin on things that you're putting out there... like, say, a virus with kills mostly restricted to people who were about to die anyway! The double standards and biased spin on this whole issue are amazing. We do know that people in palliative care who will die soon... will die soon. You are only speculating that maybe these businesses were going to die, despite the fact that they were in many cases going strong, thriving, growing, until this year.

I'm not trying to equate the value of a business to a human life, but human lives do depend on livelihoods which are dependent on jobs and economies which are dependent on businesses. Either way, the concept of 'it was maybe already going to die' it being used with blatant double standards against 'we literally knew that person was going to die'. We literally have the health minister acknowledging (bluntly and openly) that people dying with the virus and not from the virus are being counted as virus deaths, while you are saying that a business clearly dying from the restrictions and not because of the virus can legitimately be counted as dying from the virus and not the restrictions which actually are killing them.

Same thing with all the mental health issues, suicides, mental health issues, alcoholism, etc etc. The virus is not causing these problems, the restrictions are.

Part of the economic issue every country is having is economic contagion. That is, even without any economic restriction or restriction of freedoms, any individual country would still have problems because virtually every other country is imposing restrictions, and the global economy reaches every nation. The real global effort required is a collective effort in abandoning ridiculous restrictions.

If we genuinely care about lives, abandoning restrictions is clearly the critical, urgent goal. If we look at it on a global context it is so obvious it's absurd. Looking at Satanoperca's figure of around 33 million dollars worth of economic damage per life saved, if we take that in a global context, that's the economic destruction caused (whatever percentage you attribute to Australia specifically or the overall global situation). How many lives can be saved with tens of millions of dollars in a world where people die for want of a few dollars' worth of food? Even with no effort put in to controlling this virus, the number of deaths it caused would be small compared to the deaths caused by things like obesity, starvation, lack of basic medicine and healthcare, workplace accidents etc etc etc etc. Clearly this is not about saving lives, it's just nonsensical to say that.


----------



## sptrawler (25 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You can say that hypothetically they may have eventually died anyway from another cause, and you may be correct... which is a really interesting spin on things that you're putting out there... like, say, a virus with kills mostly restricted to people who were about to die anyway! The double standards and biased spin on this whole issue are amazing. We do know that people in palliative care who will die soon... will die soon. You are only speculating that maybe these businesses were going to die, despite the fact that they were in many cases going strong, thriving, growing, until this year.
> 
> I'm not trying to equate the value of a business to a human life, but human lives do depend on livelihoods which are dependent on jobs and economies which are dependent on businesses. Either way, the concept of 'it was maybe already going to die' it being used with blatant double standards against 'we literally knew that person was going to die'. We literally have the health minister acknowledging (bluntly and openly) that people dying with the virus and not from the virus are being counted as virus deaths, while you are saying that a business clearly dying from the restrictions and not because of the virus can legitimately be counted as dying from the virus and not the restrictions which actually are killing them.
> 
> ...



Mate I don't disagree with you, I'm just saying it is what it is and trying to work out what to invest my money in.
If you want to debate the pro and cons of the handling well that's fine, but it isn't going to change anything, the governments are taking an approach and we have to work with that untill they change that approach.


----------



## wayneL (25 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The dear leader will have to face an election sometime which is when it will all be sorted out.



That is assuming the other side hasn't already stocked up on armbands and Jackboots and the inhuman reptiles from both sides have tasted blood... and show no indication of being anything but despotic autocrats.


----------



## satanoperca (25 August 2020)

cutz said:


> The grim economic news just keeps coming, the stockmarket seems totally disconnected, can't work out why.. Is it a trap ??



No it is not a trap, just presenting the idea that reality and financial markets are disconnected..



SirRumpole said:


> The dear leader will have to face an election sometime which is when it will all be sorted out.




Bullsh--t, so what you believe in, is if I shot your wife, she is dead, that is okay, as the court system will catch up with me. 

Can you lend me some duck down feathers.


----------



## satanoperca (25 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> ie the decision about allocation of medical resources is made in terms of likely outcome not finances, that's the only sensible way of doing it.




I agree with your post, but the above is so true it is scarey.

Ie we can spend $1M on saving the life of a 85years old which is equal to saving the live of a 5 years cost $1M

All sounds good, until you are told we only have $1M to spend, do you split the costs between the 2 lives and potentially save both or none?


----------



## Sdajii (25 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Bullsh--t, so what you believe in, is if I shot your wife, she is dead, that is okay, as the court system will catch up with me.
> 
> Can you lend me some duck down feathers.




It's even worse than that. It's like if I shot my wife, he could say it's okay, if I was really that bad a husband it's not a problem because she's not married to me any more. Or, if the CEO embezzles hundreds of millions of dollars then resigns due to suspicions, it's okay, because he's no longer working for the company, no investigation or further repercussions required.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I agree with your post, but the above is so true it is scarey.
> 
> Ie we can spend $1M on saving the life of a 85years old which is equal to saving the live of a 5 years cost $1M
> 
> All sounds good, until you are told we only have $1M to spend, do you split the costs between the 2 lives and potentially save both or none?




Tough decisions indeed. But it's also the case that millions of $ are being spent to subsidise drugs to treat diseases that only a few people in this  country will ever get. You can argue that's not an efficient way to spend money either.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> No it is not a trap, just presenting the idea that reality and financial markets are disconnected..
> 
> 
> 
> ...




https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/contact-us/


----------



## Sdajii (25 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Tough decisions indeed. But it's also the case that millions of $ are being spent to subsidise drugs to treat diseases that only a few people in this  country will ever get. You can argue that's not an efficient way to spend money either.




The fact that there are indeed cases where tough decisions need to be made with ambiguous outcomes does not in any way justify criminal negligence in making a call which blatantly squanders funds and causes far more destruction and suffering than it prevents. Not all cases are ambiguous.


----------



## over9k (25 August 2020)

"As an example of the narrowing market breadth, Wilson pointed to Friday, when Apple Inc.’s 5% gain could be framed as accounting for all of the total return of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to an all-time high while the equal-weight version of the index fell 1.5%, a sign that the average stock didn’t participate in the advance like megacaps...While the lopsided market is nothing new -- the total value of Apple and the other four largest stocks have surged 49% this year while the rest of the market is down 4% "

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...KZhuf0pdlJTCYssoKAu2R6tX70av5aU4kjcXTkfsgLXWM


----------



## satanoperca (25 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/contact-us/



Waste of time, but thanks for the link


----------



## satanoperca (25 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Tough decisions indeed. But it's also the case that millions of $ are being spent to subsidise drugs to treat diseases that only a few people in this  country will ever get. You can argue that's not an efficient way to spend money either.



It is not effective, you are correct.


----------



## over9k (25 August 2020)

Here's my posts from duc's other thread which I think are highly relevant here:




over9k said:


> So let's compare ALL the megatech vs your BEST  non-tech etf, XLY:
> 
> View attachment 108178
> 
> ...






over9k said:


> What we're better off doing is looking at what's changed over the past month as it's been about a month since stimulus ended and that's the only significant factor other than the virus:
> 
> View attachment 108183
> 
> ...






over9k said:


> Finally, it's worth looking at what was going on before vs after stimulus end.
> 
> Before stimulus end, I had a portfolio of what I called stay-at-home tech (ZM & DOCU being just two of them) that was outperforming even apple:
> 
> ...


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The decline in the mega retail complexes, has been in decline overseas, for some time.



It has been a thing in the US for quite some years now so it was always going to happen here at some point.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Looking at Satanoperca's figure of around 33 million dollars worth of economic damage per life saved



A related question is why is the economic damage so great?

Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?

Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.


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## Smurf1976 (25 August 2020)

over9k said:


> "As an example of the narrowing market breadth



An observation from the purely mechanical system which I and two others are trading is that it is strongly preferencing both ends of the market at the moment. That is, it really doesn't like mid caps and just about everything it's bringing up is either large or small cap.

That's trading the ASX only nothing international.


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## PZ99 (25 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A related question is why is the economic damage so great?
> 
> Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?



No way. The damage is permanent imv. Future output won't make up the losses.


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## over9k (26 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> An observation from the purely mechanical system which I and two others are trading is that it is strongly preferencing both ends of the market at the moment. That is, it really doesn't like mid caps and just about everything it's bringing up is either large or small cap.
> 
> That's trading the ASX only nothing international.



I don't trade mechanically but that was my gut instinct as well - big players snuffing out almost everyone else due to being able to raise funds (corporate bonds or what have you) that the little guys can't, and a few little guys striking gold (sometimes quite literally).

With that being said, a hell of a lot of small players have been snuffed out and more are falling by the day. Oil, for example, is an utter bloodbath, and dozens of small companies are predicted to go yet:




Even the supermajors are taking it in the proverbial from the biggest player of them all: Aramco.


----------



## over9k (26 August 2020)

Lol.

This hit the news just seconds after I posted that:




Exxonmobil has just dropped out of the dow.


Move along, move along, nothing to see here...


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## over9k (26 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A related question is why is the economic damage so great?
> 
> Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?
> 
> Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.






PZ99 said:


> No way. The damage is permanent imv. Future output won't make up the losses.




Correct.

This is not what happens:




Instead, best case is we get this:


----------



## Sdajii (26 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A related question is why is the economic damage so great?
> 
> Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?
> 
> Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.




Some will, some won't, some extra damage will be done, some extra gains will be made. However, it should be obvious that the devastation is extreme, however you look at it.

Goods... why would they get made up in a large way? Presumably what you're saying is something like 'I was locked up and unable to kayak, now that the lockdown is over, I'll go buy that kayak' (or cricket bat or fishing rod or whatever). The thing is, during lockdown they weren't using a kayak or cricket bat or fishing rod. There will be some catch up buying, but people don't buy stuff when they're not using it and they don't wear it out when they don't use it or own it. For the most part though, the issue is that people sitting around playing computer games and watching Netflix aren't making money and people without money don't buy stuff.

As for services, it may not quite be zero, but it won't be far off. You may be excited to go out to dinner again or to get a massage or whatever, but if these things have been closed for 6, 12, 18, 24, 120 months, people aren't going to go out and get double their normal amount for that same period of time, especially when they don't have any money to pay for it. That's the thing, the damage doesn't suddenly stop when lockdowns end and then we get catch up. When you've destroyed businesses, jobs, etc, you continue to have a sluggish economy because your previously employed and productive workers are now out of savings, out of work and their work ethic has been replaced with alcoholism and depression. I suspect that overall, the estimates of the damage are understated not magnified. Obviously if you own a brewery or tobacco farm or you have a government-subsidised depression clinic you'll be laughing all the way to the bank, but the overall picture is pretty nasty.


----------



## qldfrog (26 August 2020)

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/co...d/news-story/30c7483a786950718e21a1997e235782


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## wayneL (26 August 2020)

I'm doing extraordinarily well atm, too much business, but I am expecting this economy to bite sooner or later.

While most of my clients are relatively unaffected, a sizeable chunk are going to find themselves in difficulty as soon as the government starts weaning them off.

I am also anticipating inflation to start having a negative effect at some point.

I know we have changed our spending habits substantially.

Any business that doesn't take cash doesn't get our business.

Any business that treats us like  lepers doesn't get our business.

That in itself has cut out a fair few places where we used to spend money that we don't spend money anymore.... perhaps it's a function of the type of people we're friendly with but almost everyone else we know are the same.


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2020)

Also to the point that I think it may have been smurf made earlier, the world economy has been at the very precipice of going over a cliff anyway. All it needed was an excuse.

Am I predicting there are now only two possible scenarios

1/ high or possibly hyperinflation (and the Fed has signalled the intention to create higher inflation already.

2/ an economic reset. The inhuman reptiles at Davos have been talking about this for 2021 (maybe the NWO theorists were right?)

I am not looking forward to either scenario.


----------



## SirRumpole (26 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A related question is why is the economic damage so great?
> 
> Won't a large portion of the lost output be made up in due course?
> 
> Some services no but for goods of any kind it almost certainly will and for services it won't literally be zero. I have no proof but strongly suspect that deficiencies in the economic system itself are magnifying the cost of all this.




Humans are adaptable.

We will find ways out of the economic abyss.

Things will change, but maybe not for the worse. 

The lessons from the Great Depression are pretty clear. If governments react to lack of government income by cutting spending then that just makes things worse and stretches out the recession.

Value and support consumers, they are the ones that keep the economy running. Invest in productive infrastructure, power stations, efficient transport structures and anything that supports job creation.

It's really up to governments to stimulate imv, left alone I don't think that the private sector has the capacity to pull us out of the abyss.


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Humans are adaptable.
> 
> We will find ways out of the economic abyss.
> 
> ...



Unfortunately it very much depends on how the government goes about this stimulus and henceforth pays for it.

Even as we stand now there is a whole economic class of people that are being wiped out, broadly the private economy middle class.

Meanwhile state government's are hiring diversity and change managers at ridiculous rates of pay.

And who is the low hanging fruit as far as taxation goes? Yep that self same group of people. Then of course there is the hidden taxation of high inflation.

That will be an enormous drag on economic recovery as it punishes the very same people you mentioned, consumers.


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## SirRumpole (26 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> Unfortunately it very much depends on how the government goes about this stimulus and henceforth pays for it.
> 
> Even as we stand now there is a whole economic class of people that are being wiped out, broadly the private economy middle class.
> 
> ...




Agree about stupid State hiring.

However, I think the low hanging fruit is resources but the current Federal government is too welded to its donors.


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Agree about stupid State hiring.
> 
> However, I think the low hanging fruit is resources but the current Federal government is too welded to its donors.



Yes, which does go to my point.

We live in a corporatocracy and corporates will not be harmed under any circumstances.


----------



## over9k (26 August 2020)

Let inflation run rampant and ease the burden of the debt.


----------



## basilio (26 August 2020)

A singularly unique US approach to effectively dealing with the COVID 19 crisis AND dramatically reducing national health costs.
I wouldn't be too critical of the idea. After all it has come from the worlds most stabled genius..

*Trump suggests closing hospitals to reduce COVID deaths*

All 7,000 hospitals across America would be closed under a bold new plan to end the coronavirus crisis, outlined by President Trump today.

Pointing to the irrefutable link between hospitals and COVID-related deaths, Mr Trump said it was time to acknowledge the elephant in the room.

“No one wants to talk about it, but the link is very, very clear,” the President said.

*“Every day I hear about a new death and I ask my people – ‘Where are these deaths happening?’ – and they tell me it’s the Johns Hopkins hospital in Baltimore, or the St Joseph’s hospital in Tampa, or some hospital in Dallas. It’s always hospitals.

“But the Democrats don’t want to admit it. They don’t want to talk about it. They’d prefer to keep the hospitals open and keep seeing the deaths pile up”.*

He said the number of hospitals in America was the reason for the high number of deaths. “We have more hospitals in America than anywhere else in the world. Many, many hospitals. So of course that’s why we’re getting these deaths. We close the hospitals, we stop the virus. Simple


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2020)

I hear Trump is only closing hospitals for Dems. Is this true @basilio ?


----------



## wayneL (26 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Let inflation run rampant and ease the burden of the debt.



I must admit (mainly because I have position myself for this), that I agree this is the way forward.

Klaus' great reset sounds far less appealing to be honest.


----------



## satanoperca (26 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> I must admit (mainly because I have position myself for this), that I agree this is the way forward.
> 
> Klaus' great reset sounds far less appealing to be honest.



I have some petrol that can add to the fire.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The lessons from the Great Depression are pretty clear. If governments react to lack of government income by cutting spending then that just makes things worse and stretches out the recession.
> 
> Value and support consumers, they are the ones that keep the economy running. Invest in productive infrastructure, power stations, efficient transport structures and anything that supports job creation.




Two past examples from the 1930's in Tasmania that I'm aware of are the road to the top of Mt Wellington and Tarraleah power station.

Both were "make work schemes" in the 1930's and both are still in use. The road is still the only road up the mountain and a common tourist destination whilst Tarraleah still generates about 6% of the state's electricity today. Both provided construction work at the time and have been of ongoing value ever since.

If we're going to spend $ well then things of that nature in all states would seem like the way to do it. Transport, water, energy, communications etc infrastructure or even things like opening up land for housing and putting the roads etc in and selling the blocks at a fixed price.


----------



## sptrawler (26 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Two past examples from the 1930's in Tasmania that I'm aware of are the road to the top of Mt Wellington and Tarraleah power station.
> 
> Both were "make work schemes" in the 1930's and both are still in use. The road is still the only road up the mountain and a common tourist destination whilst Tarraleah still generates about 6% of the state's electricity today. Both provided construction work at the time and have been of ongoing value ever since.
> 
> If we're going to spend $ well then things of that nature in all states would seem like the way to do it. Transport, water, energy, communications etc infrastructure or even things like opening up land for housing and putting the roads etc in and selling the blocks at a fixed price.



The Great Ocean Road in Victoria is another that springs to mind.
Sealing the Great Central Road and a Road from Alice straight across to Queensland, would be another good nation building project. 
Even duplicating sections of the transcontinental railway, so that trains don't have to sit idle in sidings, would be a huge increase to transport efficiency.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sealing the Great Central Road and a Road from Alice straight across to Queensland, would be another good nation building project..



they're doing that, I think. Laverton to Uluru then NT to Boulia
https://rvdaily.com.au/outback-way-sealed/


----------



## sptrawler (26 August 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> they're doing that, I think. Laverton to Uluru then NT to Boulia
> https://rvdaily.com.au/outback-way-sealed/



That's great, I have done it quite a few times over the years and always thought it should be sealed. Trucks use it a lot as a short cut, but the N.T side gets cut up pretty badly.
The W.A side has a grader running just about continuously, so is usually pretty good, but fantastic news sealing it.
The scenery is far better than the Nullarbor and it takes 1,000klm off the journey from Alice to Perth.


----------



## sptrawler (26 August 2020)

Pre virus people spent their disposable income, if their income remains the same and the employment numbers stay the same, people will return to spending the same.
What they spend it on may differ, but in a consumer society, the spend ratio generally returns to the norm IMO.
Discretionary spending $x, non discretionary spending $y and savings $z.
During the lockdown probably no one bought a kayak, but apparently just about everyone bought a bicycle, most bike shops ran out of stock.
Home renovations went through the roof, electronic equipment sales through the roof, Coles and Woolies best quarter ever.
Credit card debt paid down to the lowest ever.
I would be very surprised if peoples spending habits change and I believe spending as a percentage of earnings will return to the long term norm, a lot of retail fat will be ejected from the market place IMO.
It is a well overdue retail enema, build more shops and shopping centers to sell the same stuff at ever increasing prices, so more owners and landlords make more money isn't a sustainable model. Especially if the population isn't growing as quickly.


----------



## over9k (26 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> I must admit (mainly because I have position myself for this), that I agree this is the way forward.
> 
> Klaus' great reset sounds far less appealing to be honest.



Yeah, that along with bracket creep to slowly pay what remains off would be the lowest-pain solution IMO. 

But we'll see what our central bank overlords decide.


----------



## over9k (26 August 2020)

cross post from another thread: 




over9k said:


> I know we think of the fangs when we say megatech, but netflix really shouldn't be in it.
> 
> View attachment 108206
> 
> ...






over9k said:


> The conspiracy theorist in me says that the democrats have engaged in a gambit - logjam stimulus to torpedo the economy in the hopes that trump gets the flak for it. Now that they've moved all their own money around to where it needs to be and don't need to approve the stimulus to rescue their own portfolio's, the whole thing can go to hell in a handbasket & they won't care.
> 
> I base this on nothing other than pure cynicism of politicians and knowing that nothing is beyond (or beneath) them.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Correct.
> 
> This is not what happens:




Agreed in terms of lost services and so on. Nobody's going to go clubbing 7 nights a week or watch 100 films at the cinema due to what they missed out on. Etc. Some minor amount might be recovered, things like events being rescheduled and so on, but it's mostly lost.

Goods though I'm not so convinced since quite a few things have been outright booming. Renovations, IT equipment, bicycles and so on and of course toilet paper. Some areas have been outright smashed but others have boomed. That someone who stocked up on paper will buy less paper going forward but will still in due course replace their suit or lawn mower seems at least plausible when viewed over the long term (eg looking back a decade from now).

Putting that to the side, I do wonder to what extent our economic structure and system itself is adding unnecessarily to the problems?

In short I have a suspicion that I can't prove one way or the other. That suspicion is that central banks, government and business between them to considerable extent assumed perfection. Lending up to the limit of what could be serviced and things like that - always risky and prone to blowing up when a bump occurs. If so well that fragility will have amplified the economic damage and the pandemic isn't to blame for that having occurred, it was merely the trigger for the inevitable.


----------



## satanoperca (27 August 2020)

So back to economics, what is a life worth?
"Cabinet papers have previously revealed jailing him will cost $NZ3.59 million ($A3.33 million) for the first two years of his stay at Auckland’s Paremoremo Prison."

https://www.news.com.au/national/cr...a/news-story/28af4bd217e231ac8553bd4ee72b6c18

So along with the discussion of how much we should throw at saving some lives, we have a person that costs lives, but the goodies in our society would say that all lives should be spared, regardless if they are murderers.

The above demonstrates how far we are removed from reality.

I can save the NZ govnits $A3.32M, single bullet, solved said problem.

If this is a forum about shares, trading and investing, it seems worthless are few are willing to deal with or discuss the reality of life and death.

Happy trading, just need a human to trade with.


----------



## SirRumpole (27 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So back to economics, what is a life worth?
> "Cabinet papers have previously revealed jailing him will cost $NZ3.59 million ($A3.33 million) for the first two years of his stay at Auckland’s Paremoremo Prison."
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/national/cr...a/news-story/28af4bd217e231ac8553bd4ee72b6c18
> ...




How much do you reckon could be saved if we shoot the entire prison population ?


----------



## cynic (27 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How much do you reckon could be saved if we shoot the entire prison population ?



What ?!! Shoot all of Melbourne!!!


----------



## SirRumpole (27 August 2020)

cynic said:


> What ?!! Shoot all of Melbourne!!!




Ha ha, good one. 

Lockdown humour.


----------



## satanoperca (27 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> How much do you reckon could be saved if we shoot the entire prison population ?




So I have tried to be good, I have given consideration to Joe, who manages this forums, but you continue to antagonise.

You SIR are a xxxxxx, and if you disagree, I have PM my details, lets see the man/woman you are.

But please provide constructive conversation than taking things to extreme, it is this extreme that polarises society and creates discontent.

Or, I have misinterpreted, your statement, and you would rather spend $2M keeping a killer alive than providing support to others that have tried to provide and benefit our society.

I am calling you out, as a keyboard warrior.


----------



## SirRumpole (27 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So I have tried to be good, I have given consideration to Joe, who manages this forums, but you continue to antagonise.
> 
> You SIR are a xxxxxx, and if you disagree, I have PM my details, lets see the man/woman you are.
> 
> ...




I'm not going to respond to your PM because I can spot an internet stalker when I see one.


Sure there are a lot of people that society would be better off without but trying to reduce everything to a dollar value is invalid. There is more to society than money, but our opinions differ on this, so be it.

I'll give you an example.

Suppose this guy has a "road to Damascus" moment and actually comes to realise what he's done and is sorry for it and the communicates this out to those who may be considering doing what he did. If he turns others off from similar actions then he may eventually save a lot of lives so his life is not entirely wasted.

To me, that's a better outcome than shooting him and making a martyr out of him.

Of course, he may die unrepentant, but who knows ?

But this thread is about the coronavirus isn't it ?

Why not start a thread on the value of life if you want that discussion.


----------



## satanoperca (27 August 2020)

You flatter yourself. Lol


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sealing the Great Central Road and a Road from Alice straight across to Queensland, would be another good nation building project.




Its being done as we speak.

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2020)

Thinking about the long term impacts of this overall situation, I'm thinking that a change in psychology of the masses is one plausible outcome. Just some random thoughts here really. 

My basic theory is that we all know that certain risks exist. Examples:

We know that we'll eventually die and that there's a small but not insignificant chance that this happens far earlier than we'd assumed.

We know that the historic building we wanted to see somewhere overseas might burn to the ground due to an accident of some kind.

We know that the band we want to see live might never tour again. They might split up or someone dies or they just decide to call it quits.

And so on. Whatever's on that "bucket list" we know there's some chance you might have to cross bits of it off, you never get to see that building and you never attend a concert by that singer, and there's a small chance that you die far sooner than you'd expected.

What's changed however is that the whole lot's gone. All of a sudden you can't see any show by any band anywhere. Doesn't matter whether it's anything from heavy metal to retro pop to an orchestra, the whole lot all of a sudden is gone, kaput, you ain't seeing nothing. That's a risk that nobody would have previously considered - the idea that literally the entire concept of live music comes to a halt just wasn't credible until it happened.

Likewise all of a sudden it's not just that you can't travel to some place overseas because there's a war or there's a natural disaster or whatever. All of a sudden those in Melbourne can't just decide that OK, well if they can't go to wherever in Europe then they'll go to the NT or Tasmania instead and for that matter they've never been to Adelaide so might do a road trip and check that out too. Nope, can't do that either indeed they can't even go to Geelong. Heck even the Melbourne CBD is in practice off limits for many.

That's a drastic escalation of the risk that you can't do something, whatever was on your list, that most wouldn't previously have considered. You've got money, you're in good health, the building's still there, the band's still together, there's no war, there's no natural disaster and so on but it just isn't happening. You ain't going nowhere.

Meanwhile careers are in tatters, businesses are stuffed and so on. All manner of "tomorrow" plans are in complete disarray.

I'm thinking that we may see a "live for today" mentality once this is all over. The whole concept of sacrifice now but you can always do x tomorrow has had the rug pulled out from under it. All of a sudden you've either been to London (or wherever, just an example) or you're not going there anytime soon and so on. All of a sudden money can't actually buy a lot of things you'd assumed it would be able to buy.

Meanwhile at the same time the risk of not having money has been largely removed by the actions of government. Economy falls in a serious hole? Well now we know what happens - welfare gets doubled. All of sudden the risk of living pay to pay just got a lot lower.

So where all that brings me to is a thought that the balance just shifted. The risk of running out of money just got lower and the risk of having money but not being able to spend it has turned out to be far more real than most had expected. That being so, I'm thinking that once this is all over, those who are able to do something now, whatever that is, may be more inclined to do it now rather than leaving it as a future plan. In other words a "live for today" mentality.

Just a random thought as to the long term implications. I may well be wrong etc.


----------



## qldfrog (28 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Thinking about the long term impacts of this overall situation, I'm thinking that a change in psychology of the masses is one plausible outcome. Just some random thoughts here really.
> 
> My basic theory is that we all know that certain risks exist. Examples:
> 
> ...



Fully agree and we see it everyday here: people who had planned to move up the coast to retire do it now
Imagine how hard it will be to convince people to put money in super, sacrifice to fight global warming etc
And the political parties and governments took another hit
How can anyone trust them now?
Manipulation everywhere: you do not need masks becoming mandatory on the beach
Etc etc
Expect more brexit and Trump surprises
A fall of the EU ..the institution has been gone missing during the last 6 months so a whole already damaged overinflated balloon now deflating fast. 
Expect impacts on euro, shares there


----------



## Knobby22 (28 August 2020)

I agree Smurf. After this ends there will be a boom like none other as people stop living for the future and start living for the present.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 August 2020)

Good post Smurf.

We are seeing that already with super. Take it now and spend it like there's no tomorrow.

Because maybe there won't be.

That's pretty pessimistic. The Spanish flu turned things bad for a while but the world eventually recovered from it and today we have all this wonderful vaccine technology (we hope). 

Things will eventually recover and maybe at some stage some people will regret blowing their super. Others who invested it wisely will think it's the best thing they have done.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 August 2020)

Socially distancing but lubricated, the other evening, the workshopping of current realities was discussed.

The conclusion; best to look upon the virus outbreak as a war. Call the pandemic *World War C.* So, here we are, in the middle of WWC, there are outbreaks hither and thither, the enemy is unpredictable but we mobilise and learn as we go along, plan our defences, marshall our forces. Some of the flare-ups are in unpredictable places, the outcomes of some of the battles don't go the way we hoped, some of the generals reveal their shortcomings. The population generally falls in line but there are dissenters and opportunists and nutters and quislings. Eventually the response is overwhelming, be it medical or vaccine or immunity or changed behaviours, or a combination of all, and peace breaks out.

There'll be celebrations, maybe muted because there won't be any formal ceremony of capitulation, but life should return to normal. And the best thing about WWC is that we emerge without any damaged  physical infrastructure, and with benefits of technological, especially medical, improvement


----------



## Junior (28 August 2020)

Agree with the comments above, we will get back to normal soon enough, and there will be a boom.  There will be 'pent up demand' and many of us will bring forward our long-term plans, and live for the now.

In Australia, I feel like we'll rely on our tried and tested strategies for economic growth; high immigration, property development and export of natural resources, tourism and education.  Hopefully we can add a few new strings to our bow; renewable energy for example.

A big question in my mind, is what will Government budgets and balance sheets look like, and for how long will Zero interest rates and astronomical debt levels be manageable?  In that sense, we are still in a far better position than much of the developed world, so we probably need to worry more about Europe and the US, and how they will manage going forward.


----------



## over9k (28 August 2020)

With what money?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2020)

over9k said:


> With what money?



An excellent question. 

Governments are moving towards deregulating printed money to become similar to gold. Money will become a commodity. It is already traded as such. Its price will move as the ability of government to mine more money via issuance and to increase inventory via devaluation. 

Governments, many forget, can devalue a currency overnight to increase the value of their industry and goods for export to others. 

I see a bright future. I even hope to get a new Bentley once the paupers in the UK devalue the pound. 

gg


----------



## over9k (28 August 2020)

Yeah AUD's definitely been something to hold lately. 



I'm a matter of hours of deciding that the past ~4 weeks of change is a new trend and pulling the trigger on quite a few positions. 

Fighting an exchange rate when your own currency holdings are increasing is a pretty tough ask. Much better off holding decent stocks in AUD (if you can find any).


----------



## PZ99 (28 August 2020)

What happens to our trillion dollar debt after we devalue our currency ?


----------



## over9k (28 August 2020)

PZ99 said:


> What happens to our trillion dollar debt after we devalue our currency ?



It's less valuable.

Hence me saying letting inflation run for a bit wouldn't be all bad, especially with the corresponding bracket creep that it'd bring.


----------



## over9k (28 August 2020)

Related to thread: 

"Working from home has saved $91 billion in commuting costs" 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...oLjGckG8Dnkg6ZOtY-L6g6J4KsWuUybgC3_gTwUv-OdHA 

We aren't going back to the office when this is over.


----------



## Junior (28 August 2020)

over9k said:


> With what money?




The majority of Australians have kept their jobs through this crisis, and hopefully most of those who haven't will find work soon.  Property values have held up pretty well (so far), and Government spending will likely remain at elevated levels.  There's plenty of cash to spend at this stage, I would think.


----------



## over9k (28 August 2020)

Junior said:


> The majority of Australians have kept their jobs through this crisis, and hopefully most of those who haven't will find work soon.  Property values have held up pretty well (so far), and Government spending will likely remain at elevated levels.  There's plenty of cash to spend at this stage, I would think.



Sure, but the government's broke. A LOT of fat (and many things which aren't fat) is going to be trimmed. 

A classic case of circular flow - how do you expect growth when we're paying the debt off? Plunge us into even more private debt? Interest rates are already effectively negative/as near to zero as makes no difference. 

The piper has to be paid eventually.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Sure, but the government's broke. A LOT of fat (and many things which aren't fat) is going to be trimmed.
> 
> A classic case of circular flow - how do you expect growth when we're paying the debt off?



My expectation is the federal government prints money like crazy.

The states receive grants from the feds. Not hard to see say $100 billion being handed out to the states as grants for this, that and something else - things which have already been done or would normally be done anyway such that the practical effect is to wipe state debt. A workaround to the technicality that the states can't directly print money.

The states can then hand some money to local government to do things that would be done anyway eg resurfacing roads. Practical effect = wipes local government debt.

Done. Debt gets inflated away from a national perspective, repaid as such at the local and state level.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Imagine how hard it will be to convince people to put money in super, sacrifice to fight global warming etc




I think it's going to be much harder to convince people to sacrifice anything now for the promise of something gained tomorrow no matter what that is.

That's not good for any sector which exits "for the future" but it's good news for anything that exists for now and which may have been avoided by consumers because it's seen as wasteful or it's unhealthy or whatever.


----------



## wayneL (28 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think it's going to be much harder to convince people to sacrifice anything now for the promise of something gained tomorrow no matter what that is.
> 
> That's not good for any sector which exits "for the future" but it's good news for anything that exists for now and which may have been avoided by consumers because it's seen as wasteful or it's unhealthy or whatever.



Perhaps I hang out with libertarian loons, perhaps they are just classical liberals...

But I think it's going to be harder to convince an increasing and significant minority of wanting anything to do with the current Western system of government and economics.

I think there will be an increasing trend towards individual sovereignty, with its nucleus centred around Bitcoin or perhaps some evolution of that.

To quote our late friend Samuel Goldwyn, "Include me out".


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 August 2020)

Meanwhile, in the real world:

_The Coalition has committed to expanding special access visas, including headhunting entrepreneurs and business leaders to settle in Australia.

Addressing the National Press Club in Canberra on Friday, Acting Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs Minister Alan Tudge said he was "particularly keen" on the government's global talent visa program, which offers streamlined and priority visa pathways to high-skilled and talented individuals to work and live permanently in Australia._


> "We want to make sure we're attractive for that super talent, and it's some of that super talent that are real job creators," he said.
> 
> "They create the businesses, they invest and they're the types of people particularly that I'd like to be seeing come into the country as a priority."



https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...-post-covid-19-migration-push-20200828-p55q5z


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Meanwhile, in the real world:
> 
> _The Coalition has committed to expanding special access visas, including headhunting entrepreneurs and business leaders to settle in Australia.
> 
> ...



I think that has to happen,our poor education system and lack of high technology industries, is going to make it extremely difficult to develop home grown high achievers.
Also Im not being critical, just the way it is IMO.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I think that has to happen,our poor education system and lack of high technology industries, is going to make it extremely difficult to develop home grown high achievers.
> *Also Im not being critical, just the way it is IMO.*




It's the way it is because of government policy to defund universities and sell them to the Chinese.


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It's the way it is because of government policy to defund universities and sell them to the Chinese.



It happened way before that, when government decided everyone had the ability to go to university, just not the opportunity.
So they encouraged everyone basically go to year 12, dumb as duck poo.
Also you would find if we didnt have Chinese students, they would probably have to close the science and engineering sections, because of lack of students.
Ours do arts and social endeavours.
Yes unfortunately that bit of social engineering only achieved a situation where we had to import 457 tradesmen and an oversupply of unemployable people with arts degrees.lol
Just another brain fart we are still trying to recover from.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 August 2020)

sptrawler said:


> It happened way before that, when government decided everyone had the ability to go to university, just not the opportunity.
> So they encouraged everyone basically go to year 12, dumb as duck poo.
> Also you would find if we didnt have Chinese students, they would probably have to close the science and engineering sections, because of lack of students.
> Ours do arts and social endeavours.




Yes and before that too when the unions took over the curriculum and decided it was easier to teach social studies than maths and science.

Maths and science are too hard for teachers so what chance have the students got ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It's the way it is because of government policy to defund universities and sell them to the Chinese.



Plus if there's one thing I really dislike about Australian culture, it's the tendency to cut down anyone who actually is a high achiever.


----------



## sptrawler (29 August 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Plus if there's one thing I really dislike about Australian culture, it's the tendency to cut down anyone who actually is a high achiever.



Yes the problem with high achievers is, they are actually seen as a threat to the education system, because the teachers are insecure.
The whole selection process for teachers has gone ar$e up, rather than teachers producing the best from pupils, we now have pupils supplying jobs for teachers IMO.


----------



## IFocus (29 August 2020)

Positive implications for a lot of areas



Science News
from research organizations

*Far-UVC light safely kills airborne coronaviruses, study finds*


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624172050.htm


----------



## jbocker (29 August 2020)

IFocus said:


> Positive implications for a lot of areas
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hmmm far UV is heading towards Xrays and I don't think they are too safe. And then you go further to Gamma radiation but look what happened to Bruce Banner.
Maybe there is a safe small range of radiation between UV and Xrays that works, they seem to suggest 222nm. I dont know.


----------



## qldfrog (30 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> Hmmm far UV is heading towards Xrays and I don't think they are too safe. And then you go further to Gamma radiation but look what happened to Bruce Banner.
> Maybe there is a safe small range of radiation between UV and Xrays that works, they seem to suggest 222nm. I dont know.



If we go to much that way, we will indéed kill more people than virus and create skin cancer, eye issues etc
Be careful


----------



## jbocker (30 August 2020)

qldfrog said:


> If we go to much that way, we will indéed kill more people than virus and create skin cancer, eye issues etc
> Be careful



Having read around a little there appears to be an effective range of wavelengths that has been used for many years for bacterial control (not sure with viral, maybe there is, or are some developments). I have read that viruses and bacteria are as about as different as a goldfish is to a giraffe, albeit both are microscopic. Viruses are much smaller and simpler, and don't respond to medications which is commonly  used for bacterial treatment.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> Having read around a little there appears to be an effective range of wavelengths that has been used for many years for bacterial control (not sure with viral, maybe there is, or are some developments). I have read that viruses and bacteria are as about as different as a goldfish is to a giraffe, albeit both are microscopic. Viruses are much smaller and simpler, and don't respond to medications which is commonly  used for bacterial treatment.





IFocus said:


> Positive implications for a lot of areas
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The 5G mob would go ballistic. 

gg


----------



## jbocker (30 August 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The 5G mob would go ballistic.
> 
> gg



Maybe but for different reasons perhaps. They are batting the other side of the visible scale. But that might not stop them going ballistic. And they might be right MY Dad always told me if I watch too much TV I would end up with square eyes!!


https://www.ispreview.co.uk/wp-content/gallery/article-illustrations/electromagnetic_spectrum.jpg


----------



## Sdajii (30 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> Having read around a little there appears to be an effective range of wavelengths that has been used for many years for bacterial control (not sure with viral, maybe there is, or are some developments). I have read that viruses and bacteria are as about as different as a goldfish is to a giraffe, albeit both are microscopic. Viruses are much smaller and simpler, and don't respond to medications which is commonly  used for bacterial treatment.




Biologist here. Viruses and bacteria could be said to be as different as giraffes and goldfish, it's more or less a reasonable comparison, but different as they are, both will quickly die in boiling water or a bullet to the head or being put through a mincer.

Narrow wavelengths kill/denature microscopic organisms by damaging their DNA/RNA. Viruses are smaller and more susceptible than bacteria. Macroscopic animals have skin which protects them, but the protection is not perfect (which is why macroscopic life such as humans will end up with problems such as skin cancer from mutations if we are exposed to such radiation).

Sunlight does a reasonably good job of sterilising surfaces of things like viruses through irradiation with UV. It also gives people skin cancer. There's a pretty blurry line between harmless to everything, deadly to microbes but safe for people and dangerous for everything. Sunlight is in the blurry area of that line, with the strongest sunlight being quite dangerous, as we all know.

Artificial UV sterilisers are useful and have been used for a long time, I used to use them when I worked in biology labs, but I definitely do not want to see humans exposed to them. It wouldn't be the most insane thing going on at the moment but it would definitely be causing far more harm than good; with all this speculation about possibly long term effects of the virus, don't forget that by any measure, those effects are trivial compared to irradiation of humans, which definitely will mutate human skin/eye/etc cells which will results in cancers and death etc, which will continue to pop up for as long as the irradiated people are alive. If it's strong enough to be effective against the virus it will also damage human DNA significantly.


----------



## IFocus (30 August 2020)

jbocker said:


> Hmmm far UV is heading towards Xrays and I don't think they are too safe. And then you go further to Gamma radiation but look what happened to Bruce Banner.
> Maybe there is a safe small range of radiation between UV and Xrays that works, they seem to suggest 222nm. I dont know.




JB this bit.

"Far-UVC light cannot penetrate the tear layer of the eye or the outer dead-cell layer of skin so it cannot reach or damage living cells in the body."

As GG suggests imagine the fruit cakes coming out.


----------



## over9k (30 August 2020)

8.25 

"More than 40% of firms plan to keep more than 40% of staff working from home after the pandemic" 

So 16% planned to stay working from home already. Honestly, I'm surprised it's not stated as being higher. I bet it increases


----------



## wayneL (30 August 2020)

over9k said:


> ...planned to stay working from home already. Honestly, I'm surprised it's not stated as being higher. I bet it increases




I traded from home for a living for several years. I got back into my profession because I was getting white, fat and weak... and I was really missing interacting with other humans in person... and I enjoy working with animals.

But I tell ya, folks are p¹ssng me off these days. 

Scarcely a day goes by where someone doesn't confront me with some untenable, unthoughtful opinion, critical thought having been  supplanted by propagandists.

I've got essential service status, but seriously considering retreating to my cave and flipping the bird to society.


----------



## over9k (31 August 2020)

wayneL said:


> I traded from home for a living for several years. I got back into my profession because I was getting white, fat and weak... and I was really missing interacting with other humans in person... and I enjoy working with animals.
> 
> But I tell ya, folks are p¹ssng me off these days.
> 
> ...






Doesn't it just look awful?


----------



## Knobby22 (31 August 2020)

Independent think tank Grattan Institute presents the arguments of why the Prime Minister and National Cabinets decision to go for zero cases is the correct one.

_National cabinet has agreed that Australia's goal is zero cases of COVID-19. Lockdowns are currently the only strategy that will get us there.

There are two arguments against lockdowns, both fallacious._

Click the link if you wish, or don't.

I am not going to post the whole article here.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/arguing-against-lockdowns-this-is-why-you-re-wrong-20200828-p55q98.html


----------



## over9k (31 August 2020)

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/vic-class-action-233952091.html

Victorian government getting sued. Honestly, only a matter of time until this happened. 

Going to be interesting to be a fly on the wall for this one that's for sure.


----------



## satanoperca (31 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> _National cabinet has agreed that Australia's goal is zero cases of COVID-19. Lockdowns are currently the only strategy that will get us there._




Is this the same as :

No Child will live in poverty (1 in 5 do in Australia)
No person will take illegal drugs (war on drugs has worked, not)
We can eradicate domestic violence with education
Pigs can fly if we give them wings (sic)
Wake up, eradication is impossible if we want some freedoms, eradication is 100% possible, if we lock everyone in their homes.

The economic outcome of this is going to be huge, the tide is still in, only when it goes out, do we get to see the wreckage of the actions of the govnuts.


----------



## Sdajii (31 August 2020)

over9k said:


> https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/vic-class-action-233952091.html
> 
> Victorian government getting sued. Honestly, only a matter of time until this happened.
> 
> Going to be interesting to be a fly on the wall for this one that's for sure.




This is overdue and I'm glad to see it coming. We are being forced to sacrifice so much to delay little and save almost nothing. The insane incompetence (or corruption, depending on what you think is happening) needs to be highlighted and those behind it held accountable, and mostly importantly a path of sanity needs to be established and followed.

Melbourne tends to hibernate during winter anyway, but as the weather warms up people will be far less willing to sit around doing nothing.


----------



## Knobby22 (31 August 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Is this the same as :
> 
> No Child will live in poverty (1 in 5 do in Australia)
> No person will take illegal drugs (war on drugs has worked, not)
> ...




Please read the article.


----------



## over9k (31 August 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Melbourne tends to hibernate during winter anyway, but as the weather warms up people will be far less willing to sit around doing nothing.




Hence why if you're going to do a lockdown, winter would be the best time to do it. 

I'm expecting a fairly massive rally in the travel related stocks from here on out as we both drop the virus case numbers and head into summer.


----------



## satanoperca (31 August 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Please read the article.




Author :

*Stephen Duckett*

Stephen Duckett is director of the health program at the Grattan Institute

No bias there.

Quotes :
"The trends are good, but the government should not succumb to pressure to lift restrictions too soon."
Easy for him to say. 

"There are two arguments against lockdowns, both fallacious.
*Number one: 'The costs of lockdowns to the economy are too high'"*
Easy for him to say
"The costs to the Victorian economy that we all see are costs of the pandemic, not simply costs of the government-imposed lockdowns."
Bullsh--it.
"*Number two: 'National cabinet was wrong to establish a goal of zero cases'*
His comments are clap trap, not evidence or analysis provided.

Back to the author: (age 70 years),

Self preservation I believe, which is okay, but do not speak for the majority of the people.

Read article, clap trap.


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## PZ99 (31 August 2020)

I can't believe the author actually got to 70 years after eating that cookie


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 August 2020)

over9k said:


> Victorian government getting sued. Honestly, only a matter of time until this happened.



Suing the Victorian government does set a precedent that I suspect business won't be at all happy with in due course.

It's suing the middleman for the actions of others and I can see business being rather unhappy when that can of worms is opened. Airlines, car manufacturers, builders and retail in particular are wide open to that concept more broadly.


----------



## macca (31 August 2020)

Now Jims Mowing, he claims that his contractors are doing the same work as council workers so should be able to work

*Jim’s Mowing prepares multi-million-dollar lawsuit against Victorian Government over stage 4 lockdown*
Jim’s Mowing is preparing a multi-million-dollar lawsuit against the Victorian Government as lockdown hits more than 600 contractors.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...n/news-story/ecfa04c7309a37effd5c2bb9778850ef


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## over9k (31 August 2020)

He kind of has a point though - like in the U.S where everything was locked down... unless you wanted to go to a protest. 

The lack of consistency is what's irked people the most. I can't open my business to the public but the public can go to a protest? 

They have a point.


----------



## cutz (31 August 2020)

over9k said:


> The lack of consistency is what's irked people the most.




Yep, it's extremely disheartening when our requests for compassion are denied, we are just told to suck it up but on the other hand sportspeople to give one example can come and go without restrictions.


----------



## Sdajii (31 August 2020)

The excuse for giving the the BLM protest/mass gathering the go ahead was 'it will cause a huge outcry if we don't allow it'

So the allow that and stop people from visiting their own friends and family or going to their favourite place to go for a walk alone or running businesses or being able to go anywhere to buy clothing during winter etc etc etc... and they have the nerve to act like being prevented from these fundamental human activities for months on end are not going to result in an outcry.

It's amazing how many idiots in the public take this dumpster fire of a government seriously. The government has actually successfully convinced a large amount of the public that it makes sense to simultaneously say we can't possibly stop a protest rally for a cause which doesn't even have a genuine basis, because it will cause unrest, but we can keep people locked up, out of work, destroy their businesses, their ability/right to exercise, their ability to socialise or go shopping, their freedom of movement, and more, for months, and if that causes any sort of backlash it was unforeseeable? It's either the stupid leading the stupid or the corrupt and deliberately destructive leading the stupid.


----------



## over9k (1 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The excuse for giving the the BLM protest/mass gathering the go ahead was 'it will cause a huge outcry if we don't allow it'
> 
> So the allow that and stop people from visiting their own friends and family or going to their favourite place to go for a walk alone or running businesses or being able to go anywhere to buy clothing during winter etc etc etc... and they have the nerve to act like being prevented from these fundamental human activities for months on end are not going to result in an outcry.
> 
> It's amazing how many idiots in the public take this dumpster fire of a government seriously. The government has actually successfully convinced a large amount of the public that it makes sense to simultaneously say we can't possibly stop a protest rally for a cause which doesn't even have a genuine basis, because it will cause unrest, but we can keep people locked up, out of work, destroy their businesses, their ability/right to exercise, their ability to socialise or go shopping, their freedom of movement, and more, for months, and if that causes any sort of backlash it was unforeseeable? It's either the stupid leading the stupid or the corrupt and deliberately destructive leading the stupid.



Agreed. Problem is, those loons at the protests are andrews' left wing constituents/voterbase, and he can't exactly go upsetting them or pointing to the very obvious fact that they're the ones responsible for respreading the infection, can he?


----------



## Sdajii (1 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Agreed. Problem is, those loons at the protests are andrews' left wing constituents/voterbase, and he can't exactly go upsetting them or pointing to the very obvious fact that they're the ones responsible for respreading the infection, can he?




What point are you trying to make when reiterating my point? Are you justifying it or saying it was appropriate? Or do you acknowledge this is a problem which people should be alarmed about and oppose?


----------



## over9k (1 September 2020)

I was pointing out the political situation. The finger isn't and is not going to be pointed at the real problem, which means it's going to be repeated.

Victoria is _boned. _


----------



## satanoperca (1 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Victoria is _boned. _




Time for those to be warriors again and fight for freedoms - so simple. We are not that far in time, when one had to fight for freedoms, we have become complacent as a nation, WEAK, pathetic.

The rule of nature, still applies, the strong will survive, the weak will perish. Nothing has changed in the evolution of species, except some lefty/righties think it has not.


----------



## SirRumpole (1 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Agreed. Problem is, those loons at the protests are andrews' left wing constituents/voterbase, and he can't exactly go upsetting them or pointing to the very obvious fact that they're the ones responsible for respreading the infection, can he?




So shouldn't the Federal government be sued as well as they introduced the initial shutdowns ?

It all sounds like a lawyers picnic. Governments are damned for doing to much or too little, I can't see an open and shut case of negligence. Maybe the security guards who fell asleep or the company they worked for could be sued as well.

Here's one legal opinion.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/coronavirus-law-class-action-negligence/12113220


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## over9k (1 September 2020)

I'm not a lawyer so I have no idea, but I suspect things like duty of care etc etc are going to come into it.


----------



## cutz (2 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Independent think tank Grattan Institute presents the arguments of why the Prime Minister and National Cabinets decision to go for zero cases is the correct one.https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/arguing-against-lockdowns-this-is-why-you-re-wrong-20200828-p55q98.html




I found the article above to be extremely condescending for want of a better word, the arguments against to be flawed, alarmist, narrow minded, lacking the big picture, amateurish, reading it left me annoyed, found it surprising that is was picked up by The Age.

Actually I was not going to comment on the above it but I read this morning an excellent piece below from a better qualified individual.

My faith in some media has been somewhat restored.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09...coronavirus-restrictions-uk-covid-19/12619264


----------



## wayneL (2 September 2020)

cutz said:


> I found the article above to be extremely condescending for want of a better word, the arguments against to be flawed, alarmist, narrow minded, lacking the big picture, amateurish, reading it left me annoyed, found it surprising that is was picked up by The Age.
> 
> Actually I was not going to comment on the above it but I read this morning an excellent piece below from a better qualified individual.
> 
> ...



Such an interesting point re the lifesaving drugs.


----------



## wayneL (2 September 2020)




----------



## over9k (2 September 2020)

So the data was released today and it shows that Australia is in its first recession since 1991. 

I am shocked. 


Jokes aside, the contraction was actually slightly larger than anticipated, but only by a little bit. XAO/XJO didn't care and bounced more than yesterday's entire contraction.


----------



## satanoperca (2 September 2020)

over9k said:


> So the data was released today and it shows that Australia is in its first recession since 1991.
> 
> I am shocked.
> 
> ...




The contraction was larger than anticipated, who anticipated the smaller contractions than what was otherwise anticipated, by those that can anticipated.

Recession, you close down society and everything should remain as sunshine and lollipops.

The current figures will look tame, once the cocaine stops being supplied by the Feds.


----------



## cutz (2 September 2020)

over9k said:


> XAO/XJO didn't care and bounced more than yesterday's entire contraction.




Haven't been following the news due to all the corona bull-dust being spruked by the media at the moment.

A stock I watch closely BHP had an unusual amount of call assignments this morning, maybe some short covering with BHP being pushed into September's open interest zone causing some heavy option volume and some more argy-bargy into tomorrows ex divi and there's your bounce.

Dunno, I wouldn't get too excited about todays exuberance, is all smoke and mirrors, our economy is in tatters, our state polis have made sure of that !!


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> The current figures will look tame, once the cocaine stops being supplied by the Feds.




I don't disagree with your thoughts but I'd argue that the pandemic and shutdown is a trigger not just a cause. 

Plenty of people have been lamenting problems in the underlying economy for years now. There's plenty of threads on this forum where that has come up and plenty of discussion in the wider community as well.

Highest in the world or close to it costs for just about every important business and consumer input and an economy that relies very heavily on resource extraction and population growth. 

It was always going to end in tears, the only questions  were when and with what trigger but that which is inherently unsustainable always comes to a halt at some point. Those exact words or very close to it have been said by many over an extended period and now we know the answers. 

The pandemic and lockdowns pushed the structure over but the termites have been eating it for years now so it was always going to happen at some point.


----------



## Knobby22 (3 September 2020)

Some facts






And as Josh Friedan said, Australia would be doing even better if it wasn't for Victoria.


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## cutz (3 September 2020)

@Knobby22 

Just a thought here, that top graph does not paint a realistic picture, the iron ore effect may be masking the true reality.


----------



## wayneL (3 September 2020)

cutz said:


> @Knobby22
> 
> Just a thought here, that top graph does not paint a realistic picture, the iron ore effect may be masking the true reality.



That was my initial thought too.

Also, we're only in the first quarter of this game.


----------



## Junior (3 September 2020)

Those charts are useful and it will be interesting to update those in 3 months or 6 months.  I think those GDP numbers should also be read alongside COVID stimulus which has been unleashed in each country.  Without COVID economic stimulus, those numbers would obviously be far worse.  In Australia for example, once mortgage repayment holidays, JobKeeper and JobSeeker all unwind, we'll see the real economic damage play out.

Those charts highlight how poorly the US has coped with this.  The size of their stimulus packages have dwarfed anywhere else in the world, yet it's had no impact on death rates, and the economy has taken a massive hit.  

Compare that to here, where our government spending was designed to sit alongside Restrictions, and therefore effectively fund the cost of shutting down business, to stymy the spread of the virus.  In the States they just unleashed the cash, AND let the virus spread.  Double whammy.


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Some facts
> View attachment 108588
> 
> 
> ...




When people post cherry-picking data with no context, they're probably pushing a narrative rather than trying to depict the genuine situation.

Just as an example, the country I was in before Australia just days before the lockdowns began, was Thailand. Thailand has had virtually no deaths, extremely few cases, and their economy has been utterly utterly devastated. Why? Their GPD was extremely heavily reliant on tourism, and foreign tourist arrivals have come to a halt, despite Thailand having one of the lowest total virus cases in the world (Australia has more than 10x the number of deaths Thailand has, despite Thailand having around 4x Australia's population, meaning Australia has had around 40x more deaths than Thailand per capita). 

Your cherry-picked data does not include this in the picture and fails to point out that the economic harm in no country is actually related to the virus itself, it's related to the way the economy has been managed by the government and the way the global situation has changed.

If, say, global demand for iron ore or tourism or cheese or fleeb widgets is what your economy relies heavily on, and that commodity is in greater or lesser demand than before, your economy will thrive or suffer, and this has nothing to do with your country's virus numbers. If your government shuts down businesses or brings about conditions which will destroy the economy, your economy will suffer for it. If they play QE games etc, by many metrics you'll have smoke and mirrors which may make a drowning economy look like it's thriving.

It's horrible that our world has become more about pushing narratives and agendas than the pursuit of truth and fact.


----------



## Knobby22 (3 September 2020)

OK give me the data for Thailand Sdajii


----------



## PZ99 (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> So the data was released today and it shows that Australia is in its first recession since 1991.
> 
> I am shocked.
> 
> ...



Probably in anticipation of more stimulus measures is my guess


----------



## over9k (3 September 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Probably in anticipation of more stimulus measures is my guess



Maybe. It was absolutely nuts on the NYSE the night before though and we all know how much of a cold Australia catches whenever the usa sneezes (or in this case, the inverse).

I suspect a lot of people got the jitters the day before the release (hence the massive selloff on monday) and worst-case-scenario was priced in then.

Then all you need is the estimates to be accurate and you get a big rebound, which is obviously exactly what happened.

Or it was, you know, both.


----------



## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> OK give me the data for Thailand Sdajii




Thailand's GPD shrank year on year by a massive 12.2% in the second quarter of 2020, link to data here: https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth-annual

In Q1 2020 Australia declined by 0.3% while Thailand fell by 2%

Thailand's total virus deaths are 58, compared to Australia's 663 (keep in mind that Thailand's population is multiples of Australia's, meaning that Australia's total number of deaths which is on its own is more than 10x Thailand's is multiples of that per capita).

If your narrative made sense, Australia's GPD should have fallen by a figure literally dozens of times more than Thailand's, but in reality Thailand's has fallen more severely (and in real terms it's more severe than the raw numbers suggest, but that's a much longer story to get into).

You can't honestly or at least genuinely say that 663 deaths, almost all of which were of people who were soon to die, is in itself going to have a dramatic effect on an economy. You certainly can't blame 58 deaths for a 12% drop in GDP! Your figures have been cooked up to push a narrative, not the depict what's actually happening.


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## Knobby22 (3 September 2020)

You could say that the loss of tourism was the big problem and 2% is a great result for Thailand.


----------



## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> You could say that the loss of tourism was the big problem and 2% is a great result for Thailand.




I already pointed out that the biggest problem for Thailand was the collapse of international tourism. Do you think you're clever by saying "You could say..." the obvious?

2% would have been a spectacular result, but Q2 was a loss of over 12% and Q3 will be worse. The point is, your charts are blatantly misrepresenting both the actual raw situation as well as the explanation behind the situation. It falsely says the death rate within a country is the driver of economic realities, and falsely says that the amount of death causes the amount of economic harm. Neither of these is true.


----------



## over9k (3 September 2020)

Does it actually say that though? 

Or is it just pointing out that allowing the virus to kill people might actually have an economic effect and that it's not actually a tradeoff? 

In other words, either you suffer economic damage from a lockdown, or you suffer both economic and human life damage from not having one. 

Seems to me like you get the economic pain either way?


----------



## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Does it actually say that though?
> 
> Or is it just pointing out that allowing the virus to kill people might actually have an economic effect and that it's not actually a tradeoff?
> 
> ...




That's the narrative, but it's a false one.

Did you read my posts?

Do you honestly think you get a severe economic impact from knocking off a few people who are too old or sick to contribute to the economy anyway? The reality is the opposite. I'm not saying we should actively try to bring about human deaths, but those deaths actually help the economy, not harm it.

Very, very clearly, the economic harm is not being caused by the virus itself, especially not the deaths.

One aspect which does cause the correlation you're promoting (it's not by any stretch the primary metric, but it is a contributor) is that if people have an outbreak and freak out about it and thus shut down businesses and are too scared to go outside so they don't buy stuff or go to movies or out to dinner etc, the economy suffers. The exact same thing would occur if the media ran a successful scare campaign about other strains of the common cold or a completely innocuous issue or a completely fictional one.

A few old people dying doesn't reduce a country's ability to run a thriving economy. This very clearly isn't the cause of the problems. There are all sorts of things going on in the world at the moment including a cold war between China and many other nations, which has dramatically altered international trade, plus international travel being reduced, right down to things like movies not being made, etc etc. The virus itself is not what's causing the economic issues.


----------



## over9k (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> That's the narrative, but it's a false one.
> 
> Did you read my posts?
> 
> ...



Oh yeah, because the voluntary isolation that people would do (see: lack of change in USA when they get reopenings) and then the endless sick days as absolutely *everybody* get it won't have any effect at all. Then combine the inability for people to see their parents/grandparents on account of the very real probability that it'll kill them and the inability for old farts to even really leave the house (not sure if you're aware of this, but the boomers have a lot of money they're just itching to spend travelling etc that they can't if the whole country is infectious) on account of how infectious the entire country has become and you have *everything* absolutely _ravaged_.

At least with lockdowns, we can return to normal once they're over on account of the virus being non-existent in the community. Let it spread, and you have nobody (think old farts and their caravan trips for example) able to do anything until the whole country (planet) gets vaccinated, which is going to take *years*.

In short, a few weeks of lockdown can return life to normal *years* before it would if we had to wait for a vaccine.

If we'd simply gone absolutely nuclear with hardcore lockdowns right at the start and nipped it in the bud then & there, none of this would be happening. I'm no fan of jacinda ardern, but she got things right over there, NZ is life as normal minus the tourists. So is Tasmania or indeed anywhere that did a proper lockdown/border closure early. 

If not for the protesters in victoria and the ruby princess idiocy, the whole country would be like NZ is at the moment. Instead, we have this bull****.


----------



## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh yeah, because the voluntary isolation that people would do (see: lack of change in USA when they get reopenings) and then the endless sick days as absolutely *everybody* get it won't have any effect at all.




You're speaking based on 6 month old guesswork. We now know most people don't catch it (the early assumption that literally everyone would be susceptible because it was new has turned out to be incorrect - most people don't contract it when exposed) and most people who do become infected show literally no symptoms or very little.



> Then combine the inability for people to see their parents/grandparents on account of the very real probability that it'll kill them and the inability for old farts to even really leave the house (not sure if you're aware of this, but the boomers have a lot of money they're just itching to spend travelling etc that they can't if the whole country is infectious) on account of how infectious the entire country has become and you have *everything* absolutely _ravaged_.




I disagree with what you're saying, but since it's emotional rambling and off topic I won't debate it.



> At least with lockdowns, we can return to normal once they're over on account of the virus being non-existent in the community. Let it spread, and you have nobody (think old farts and their caravan trips for example) able to do anything until the whole country (planet) gets vaccinated, which is going to take *years*.




Simply untrue. We can not eliminate the virus entirely. We can't go back to normal until we go back to normal. The Sweden model is the way to get back to normal. If you use the lockdown approach you have a neverending series of lockdowns with no endpoint. Look at Victoria - lockdowns eased then according to the government with the strategy you advocate, one single infection of one family started the big mess Victoria is now in, and lockdowns were implemented and the state was shut down for months anyway, destroying businesses, etc etc. Taking a Sweden model approach you never lockdown and you quickly come to a stable situation where you have a negligible rate of deaths and trivial amount of illness, with no need for lockdowns... like, say, the way we deal with the other strains of coronaviruses which we call common colds.



> In short, a few weeks of lockdown can return life to normal *years* before it would if we had to wait for a vaccine.




Hello? Hello? Reality here literally demonstrating that what you are saying it utterly, utterly in contradiction to reality! Melbourne has been in extreme lockdown for much more than a few short weeks, and this isn't the first lockdown Melbourne has had! If we could have gone back to normal after a few short weeks of lockdown we'd have been back to normal after the first lockdown early this year! I really wish people like you who are so disconnected from reality could have a large dose of it inflicted on you.



> If we'd simply gone absolutely nuclear with hardcore lockdowns right at the start and nipped it in the bud then & there, none of this would be happening. I'm no fan of jacinda ardern, but she got things right over there, NZ is life as normal minus the tourists. So is Tasmania or indeed anywhere that did a proper lockdown/border closure early.




NZ is one of the most remote countries in the world made up of islands! Even in virus simulations before the virus was ever spoken of, NZ was always one of the safest places. Literally even in computer games where you try to make a virus infect the world, which took no account of political differences into account, NZ was always one of the most challenging places on the planet. NZ's 'success' has nothing to do with policy, they were just in an easy position. The exact same strategy wouldn't work in most places, because most countries aren't one of the most remote countries on Earth made up of a series of islands with low population density!



> If not for the protesters in victoria and the ruby princess idiocy, the whole country would be like NZ is at the moment. Instead, we have this bull****.




Utter nonsense. But, since you're obviously following narratives rather than employing critical thinking, it's clear to see why you think what you do.


----------



## over9k (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're speaking based on 6 month old guesswork. We now know most people don't catch it (the early assumption that literally everyone would be susceptible because it was new has turned out to be incorrect - most people don't contract it when exposed) and most people who do become infected show literally no symptoms or very little.



"Most people who do become infected show literally no symptoms or very little". 

Yes, we know that - young people are virtually impervious, and then there's an exponentially increasing likelihood of it killing you the older you get. Therefore, if young people are most of the cases, you have an unrepresentative population sample and thus bull**** data. 


> I disagree with what you're saying, but since it's emotional rambling and off topic I won't debate it.



It's nothing of the sort. You think time off work on sick leave isn't costly? You think people aren't voluntarily isolating/working from home and never leaving the house unless absolutely necessary in virus infected but legally reopened areas? 

You think the boomers, the ones that actually spend the money, who know they're overwhelmingly more likely to be killed by this thing, are going to just go out & spend like drunken sailors like they usually do if everywhere is infectious? 

Because I've got some news for you sweetheart, plenty of places in the U.S have reopened and economically speaking it's done absolutely sweet **** all on account of what I've just described above. But hey, you go thinking that AU would behave completely different to USA or something.  


> Simply untrue. We can not eliminate the virus entirely.



Absolute drivel. How does a population get the virus if nobody spreads it? 

Explain NZ. Go on. I'll wait. 


> We can't go back to normal until we go back to normal. The Sweden model is the way to get back to normal.



NZ deaths per million: 4.5 

Sweden deaths per million: 570 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ 


> If you use the lockdown approach you have a neverending series of lockdowns with no endpoint.



No you don't. NZ had a big lockdown, eradicated it, and then a total reopening. Its only new case in like three months or whatever it was was some moron flying in from overseas. 


> Look at Victoria - lockdowns eased then according to the government with the strategy you advocate, one single infection of one family started the big mess Victoria is now in, and lockdowns were implemented and the state was shut down for months anyway, destroying businesses, etc etc. Taking a Sweden model approach you never lockdown and you quickly come to a stable situation where you have a negligible rate of deaths and trivial amount of illness, with no need for lockdowns... like, say, the way we deal with the other strains of coronaviruses which we call common colds.



Victoria has the massive infection rate it does because of the spread out of the hotels and the BLM protests. 

It has the infection that it does precisely because it _didn't _lock down. How are you not getting this? 


> Hello? Hello? Reality here literally demonstrating that what you are saying it utterly, utterly in contradiction to reality! Melbourne has been in extreme lockdown for much more than a few short weeks, and this isn't the first lockdown Melbourne has had! If we could have gone back to normal after a few short weeks of lockdown we'd have been back to normal after the first lockdown early this year! I really wish people like you who are so disconnected from reality could have a large dose of it inflicted on you.



I really wish you could understand why the infection has spread in melbourne - hotel security guards getting the virus from the very people in quarantine and then spreading it to everyone they meet plus allowing thousands upon thousands of morons to spread an infection at a protest is _not_ a lockdown. 


> NZ is one of the most remote countries in the world made up of islands! Even in virus simulations before the virus was ever spoken of, NZ was always one of the safest places. Literally even in computer games where you try to make a virus infect the world, which took no account of political differences into account, NZ was always one of the most challenging places on the planet. NZ's 'success' has nothing to do with policy, they were just in an easy position. The exact same strategy wouldn't work in most places, because most countries aren't one of the most remote countries on Earth made up of a series of islands with low population density!



So they had more time to close the borders and lock the place down early and thus ensured it never got there in the first place/what little got there was snuffed out before it was able to spread? 

Gotcha  


> Utter nonsense. But, since you're obviously following narratives rather than employing critical thinking, it's clear to see why you think what you do.




Coming from a guy that thinks allowing thousands upon thousands of people to go to a protest and hotel security guards to catch the disease and then head out into the community and give it to everyone is a "lockdown", that's genuinely amazing. 

Let's take NZ out of it: Take a look at all the other states that didn't have this security guard spreading bull**** or BLM protesting morons spreading the infection(s) and see how many cases there's been. Aside from that ruby princess idiocy (newsflash, allowing that ship to dock & disembark isn't a lockdown either) there'd be absolutely nothing if not for those idiots that went to victoria and then into the other states. It would have been COMPLETELY eradicated if not for what I've just mentioned. 

That's the differences between the states' approaches, and that's why victoria is the basket case that it is. 

This is _not _complex.


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## satanoperca (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Absolute drivel. How does a population get the virus if nobody spreads it?
> 
> This is _not _complex.




First statement, it is a virus it spreads, so has since the dawn of time.

Second statement, it is complex, that is why we are in the mess.


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

No, it isn't. If nobody with the virus has any contact with anyone else, it stays on/in that person. Hence why if you prevent anybody with it getting into your country and/or prevent those in your country with it from giving it to someone else, it's over.


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## satanoperca (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> No, it isn't. If nobody with the virus has any contact with anyone else, it stays on/in that person. Hence why if you prevent anybody with it getting into your country and/or prevent those in your country with it from giving it to someone else, it's over.




Do you live in a cage, isolated from all human contact, except internet connection?

Are you real, do you have friends, do you like to socialize, or are you old and having to contemplate the various questions that arise when one is faced with the same question/fact that we all have to deal with: death.


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> "Most people who do become infected show literally no symptoms or very little".
> 
> Yes, we know that - young people are virtually impervious, and then there's an exponentially increasing likelihood of it killing you the older you get. Therefore, if young people are most of the cases, you have an unrepresentative population sample and thus bull**** data.




The reality is that most people living are not close to death, and those that are close to death are already close to death. Obviously most of the cases will be people who are not close to death, and thus most cases are trivial. There is nothing "bull****"  about this.



> It's nothing of the sort. You think time off work on sick leave isn't costly? You think people aren't voluntarily isolating/working from home and never leaving the house unless absolutely necessary in virus infected but legally reopened areas?




That's not what I said, I literally declined to comment so it makes no sense to put words in my mouth. But, to address what you falsely say I said, time off work is obviously costly, but trivial illness is trivial, and people who are already close to death because they're in an old folks' home or they're in hospital close to death from cancer aren't taking time off work... 

Yes, people are definitely voluntarily isolating (or being forced to, as I am) despite being at no risk and being perfectly healthy. This is indeed a huge part of why the economy is suffering. Obviously if you force a lockdown which destroys businesses and prevent people from working despite them being in perfect health, you're going to hurt the economy. That's not the virus hurting the economy, that's the insane policies hurting the economy.



> You think the boomers, the ones that actually spend the money, who know they're overwhelmingly more likely to be killed by this thing, are going to just go out & spend like drunken sailors like they usually do if everywhere is infectious?




As examples, both of my parents are boomers. They're both in Victoria. One in Melbourne, one in regional Victoria. They're both forced to avoid doing their usual thing, both hate it and wish they could be out doing normal things and if it was legal they would. If there as no fearmongering campaign, yes, the majority would be spending as usual. Once you get old your time is near anyway, and what point is being alive if you're just sitting around inside too scared to go out, until you inevitably die anyway? It's appalling at how easily people have been convinced that it's better for an old person in a retirement home to be lonely in isolation, legally forbidden from seeing their loved ones, then dying anyway, rather than being able to live a normal life until their inevitable death.



> Because I've got some news for you sweetheart, plenty of places in the U.S have reopened and economically speaking it's done absolutely sweet **** all on account of what I've just described above. But hey, you go thinking that AU would behave completely different to USA or something.




You're really clutching at straws if you think using the USA as an example at the moment is relevant to any other country. If you want a much more relevant example, look at Sweden. They actually did what I would have suggested and it has proven to be the correct strategy. The USA has extreme political issues causing all sorts of mismanagement, each state is dealing with the virus in different ways, they literally have widespread riots at the moment, it's just not a comparable situation.



> Absolute drivel. How does a population get the virus if nobody spreads it?




Are you aware that the most extreme lockdowns in the country happened in Victoria, and *THEN* long after that, while Melbourne still had the most extreme restrictions in the country, it had an outbreak larger than the first? The largest outbreak literally occurred in the place with the strictest lockdowns. Clearly, human beings act as human beings, and so they should, and so these measures aren't particularly effective. Some of the places with the least effective measures taken have some of the lowest rates of infection (Thailand is a good example, and I just use it because it's a country I was recently spending a lot of time in and I just mentioned it for a different reason in this discussion; they have very poor hygiene standards, high population density, plenty of communal eating etc etc, yet very low infection rates). Look at Sweden with extremely low deaths after taking a sensible approach and letting herd immunity take place. It's now a proven model, it's objectively better.



> Explain NZ. Go on. I'll wait.




It's literally a country with low population density, fragmented into literal islands. Even in simulations run before this virus was ever identified, even ignoring the type of government strategies used, NZ always came up as a country very likely to have minimal issues with a virus outbreak.



> Victoria has the massive infection rate it does because of the spread out of the hotels and the BLM protests.




According to official data, the protests didn't contribute. If the lockdowns are so fragile that a couple of security guards doing the wrong thing ruin the whole picture, it shows that the system is too fragile to be appropriate. What you are wanting was literally used and literally failed. If a Sweden model had been used we would be able to get on with normal life and we would have no requirement for paranoia or restrictions. If a security guard did the wrong thing or whatever, it wouldn't do anything. Herd immunity would just give protection, no issue, no problem.



> I really wish you could understand why the infection has spread in melbourne - hotel security guards getting the virus from the very people in quarantine and then spreading it to everyone they meet plus allowing thousands upon thousands of morons to spread an infection at a protest is _not_ a lockdown.




Again, according to official data the protests didn't contribute, and if one or two security guards can cause the whole system to break down, it's a silly thing to rely on. You're always going to have a few people doing silly things. Humans are human, and at least a few will act like humans.



> Coming from a guy that thinks allowing thousands upon thousands of people to go to a protest and hotel security guards to catch the disease and then head out into the community and give it to everyone is a "lockdown", that's genuinely amazing.




You're repeating yourself incessantly. Allowing the protest was insane if they're going to attempt a lockdown. I don't think lockdowns are the way to go, I think they're terrible, but I do agree that if you're going to have a lockdown you should do it properly. A half-hearted lockdown is insane, but here's the thing: In a country like Australia, a genuine lockdown is impossible. It might work in China where people have legitimate reason to fear being disappeared if they disobey or even openly question the government, but in Australia you'll always have people acting like they're allowed to have basic human rights. Consequently, when Victoria attempted the impossible it didn't work, and cringefully we have people acting like that is a surprise and shouldn't have been anticipated.



> Let's take NZ out of it: Take a look at all the other states that didn't have this security guard spreading bull**** or BLM protesting morons spreading the infection(s) and see how many cases there's been. Aside from that ruby princess idiocy (newsflash, allowing that ship to dock & disembark isn't a lockdown either) there'd be absolutely nothing if not for those idiots that went to victoria and then into the other states. It would have been COMPLETELY eradicated if not for what I've just mentioned.




Victoria has the most dense population and coldest climate other than Tasmania (which has very low population density and a small population size). You are ignoring the primary factors which determine what a virus will do.



> That's the differences between the states' approaches, and that's why victoria is the basket case that it is.




Nope, that's what you're choosing to believe, while ignoring the genuine factors at work.



> This is _not _complex.




Complex or not, you fail to understand it.


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> No, it isn't. If nobody with the virus has any contact with anyone else, it stays on/in that person. Hence why if you prevent anybody with it getting into your country and/or prevent those in your country with it from giving it to someone else, it's over.




You can't stop people from having contact with other people. If you were to somehow force zero human to human contact of any type, yes, you would almost entirely eliminate the virus within two or three months. You would also kill a huge percentage of the world's population and leave a significant percentage of the survivors in various forms of depression and trauma. Perhaps more importantly though, it's completely impossible (which is fortunate).


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

It's remarkable how you've just conveniently ignored how the whole rest of the country sorted this thing out whilst making absolutely endless excuses and BS for victoria. It's also interesting how most of the rest of the country is completely reopened without all the deaths that sweden had, and equally as interesting is how you totally ignored the bit where I compared NZ's deaths per million vs Sweden's 

Lockdowns work. NZ and the rest of the country are very simple and very obvious proof. You are in total denial of reality. NZ and indeed almost all of the rest of AUS are in a similar position to sweden and yet have a death rate several orders of magnitude lower, and you know it. Don't tell me that victoria is so different to NZ or tasmania or the rest of aus that lockdowns couldn't work there. I know that you don't believe that. 


What I think is that you're bright enough to know all of this already. I think there's an ulterior motive to your posts. You've very clearly stated how much you (don't) value human life


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## satanoperca (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> I think there's an ulterior motive to your posts. You've very clearly stated how much you (don't) value human life




You are very smart, he does, it is called humanity.


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

A simple comparison between NZ and sweden, or the rest of aus & victoria tells you literally *everything* you need to know. You expect me to believe that vic is so different to the rest of the country that what's worked absolutely everywhere else couldn't work there? Give me a break.

The only way you could be in denial of this self-evident reality is if you're either absolutely insane, or something else is afoot.

And he's not insane, so my money is on the latter.


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> It's remarkable how you've just conveniently ignored how the whole rest of the country sorted this thing out whilst making absolutely endless excuses and BS for victoria.




Wow. I'm starting to feel like I'm talking to a child. I haven't ignored it, I've addressed it. Victoria has literally had far more strict lockdowns than any other state. If you think that lockdowns are the answer and all else is irrelevant, your assertion is insane, because the reality is that the state with the most extreme lockdowns has by far the most cases. It should be clear to anyone, even you, that something else is going on. I've explained those obvious things.



> It's also interesting how most of the rest of the country is completely reopened without all the deaths that sweden had, and equally as interesting is how you totally ignored the bit where I compared NZ's deaths per million vs Sweden's




Population density and climate are the biggest relevant differences between Sweden and other Australian states. It makes no sense to compare apples and oranges. You can see that Victoria has conditions sufficiently conducive to a viral outbreak (not that it's significant in itself, but it is a phenomenon which exists) as does Sweden, but despite the presence of the virus and little effort being put in, other states have not had similar issues. Sydney is the obvious second most likely to experience a big outbreak, but a warmer climate, lower surrounding population density and several smaller and/or controversial differences also make Melbourne more fertile for a virus.

Comparing NZ to Sweden is a ridiculous case of comparing apples to kumquats, but what you're not taking into consideration is that NZ is a group of small islands in a remote part of the southern Pacific while Sweden is literally on the world's largest landmass with land borders to other countries and much higher population density making eradication impossible and management completely different and far more challenging, plus the fact that Sweden has now reached and endpoint and has no need for isolation, while NZ must remain isolated and is vulnerable to reinfection. Sweden need not worry and can move forward without the issues NZ indefinitely has. NZ is an oddball case not relevant to almost any other country (with perhaps some relevance to Philippines, Iceland and maybe one or two others).



> Lockdowns work. NZ and the rest of the country are very simple and very obvious proof. You are in total denial of reality.




If lockdowns work and are your only metric, why does the Australian state with by far, far, far the most extreme lockdowns have by far the highest virus incidence? You literally ignore the most obvious example of reality and accuse someone else of being in denial of it! It's incredible.



> NZ and indeed almost all of the rest of AUS are in a similar position to sweden and yet have a death rate several orders of magnitude lower, and you know it. Don't tell me that victoria is so different to NZ or tasmania or the rest of aus that lockdowns couldn't work there. I know that you don't believe that.




Climate and population density are universally recognised as being two of the most important variables, and they are indeed very different. All official information agrees with this. Of course I believe it and it's absurd that you argue against it.



> What I think is that you're bright enough to know all of this already. I think there's an ulterior motive to your posts. You've very clearly stated how much you (don't) value human life




What is obvious is that you're either not bright enough to understand this or you're so brainwashed by the hysteria narratives that you can't look at the situation objectively.

I've never said I don't value human life or said anything to suggest it and it is completely disgusting for you to say such a thing and you do deserve to feel ashamed for making the accusation.


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## Knobby22 (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> A simple comparison between NZ and sweden, or the rest of aus & victoria tells you literally *everything* you need to know. You expect me to believe that vic is so different to the rest of the country that what's worked absolutely everywhere else couldn't work there? Give me a break.
> 
> The only way you could be in denial of this self-evident reality is if you're either absolutely insane, or something else is afoot.
> 
> And he's not insane, so my money is on the latter.



Don't worry about him. His mind is fixed.


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## wayneL (3 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Don't worry about him. His mind is fixed.



Ironical


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Don't worry about him. His mind is fixed.




Better that than broken like many of the minds around here!


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## Knobby22 (3 September 2020)

wayneL said:


> Ironical



Yes.


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Wow. I'm starting to feel like I'm talking to a child. I haven't ignored it, I've addressed it. Victoria has literally had far more strict lockdowns than any other state. If you think that lockdowns are the answer and all else is irrelevant, your assertion is insane, because the reality is that the state with the most extreme lockdowns has by far the most cases. It should be clear to anyone, even you, that something else is going on. I've explained those obvious things.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




A lockdown which allows multi-thousand-person protests and infected security guards to roam the city is not a lockdown. Victoria didn't have a lockdown, the rest of the country did. Victoria's a shitshow, the rest of the country's great. I don't know how much simpler I can put it.


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## satanoperca (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> A lockdown which allows multi-thousand-person protests and infected security guards to roam the city is not a lockdown. Victoria didn't have a lockdown, the rest of the country did. Victoria's a shitshow, the rest of the country's great. I don't know how much simpler I can put it.




So what are you trying to say?


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> A lockdown which allows multi-thousand-person protests and infected security guards to roam the city is not a lockdown. Victoria didn't have a lockdown, the rest of the country did. Victoria's a shitshow, the rest of the country's great. I don't know how much simpler I can put it.




Simple doesn't mean correct. 1 + 1 = 3 is an extremely simple statement, but it's still wrong.

Victoria isn't the only state which had protests. A couple of security guards being stupid are still just a couple of individuals.

That was all months ago anyway. Melbourne has been under extreme lockdown, and certainly far more of a lockdown than anywhere else in Australia. To say that Victoria has had less of a lockdown than the rest of Australia is so far beyond incorrect it's difficult to find appropriate words to respond to it. You're just so ridiculously wrong.

The reality is that the lockdowns have not worked. Presumably you can agree with that. Now, either, they didn't work because lockdowns don't work, or they didn't work because in practice lockdowns don't work because they're so fragile that one horny security guard can ruin the whole thing, which means they don't work because they are so fragile. Either way, Victoria has put in an astronomically higher effort into lockdowns and sacrificed so much more for lockdowns and caused so much more destruction through lockdowns than any other state. You can not deny this clear reality. However you look at it, lockdowns did not work. Even if in theory they do, Victoria is living proof that they don't. But even so, no one I know in Melbourne knows anyone personally who has had the virus in Victoria. Not even a mild confirmed case. That's how trivial the virus is.


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Simple doesn't mean correct. 1 + 1 = 3 is an extremely simple statement, but it's still wrong.
> 
> Victoria isn't the only state which had protests. A couple of security guards being stupid are still just a couple of individuals.
> 
> ...




Absolute drivel. Victoria's cases were down to almost nothing, then the protests & security guards happened, then cases spiked and spread like wildfire as the lockdowns we now see were only imposed weeks later. 

If lockdowns didn't work, the rest of the country would be the same shitshow that victoria is. It's literally that simple. You strike me as a typical "big brained" individual that thinks that something is 1000x more complex than it really is and it is of course just so complex that only someone as clever as you can figure it out. 

If not for the protests & security guards, victoria would be in the same situation as the rest of the country. This is undeniable except by either a lunatic or a liar.


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## satanoperca (3 September 2020)

So what are you trying to say?
Always is interesting when you have to ask the same question over and over again, when the person(s), cannot respond, but rather writes a whole lot of content that means nothing.

So Over9K, what is your solution to the problem?


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

Which one?


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## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Absolute drivel. Victoria's cases were down to almost nothing, then the protests & security guards happened, then cases spiked and spread like wildfire as the lockdowns we now see were only imposed weeks later.
> 
> If lockdowns didn't work, the rest of the country would be the same shitshow that victoria is. It's literally that simple. You strike me as a typical "big brained" individual that thinks that something is 1000x more complex than it really is and it is of course just so complex that only someone as clever as you can figure it out.
> 
> If not for the protests & security guards, victoria would be in the same situation as the rest of the country. This is undeniable except by either a lunatic or a liar.




You keep repeating this but it doesn't make sense.

Victoria is the only state which has gone into hard lockdown. Victoria has the worst cases. Victoria is not the only state which had BLM protests. Victoria is not the only state with one or two stupid individuals. Many countries in this world have very few cases despite no lockdowns. They just have conditions which are not conducive to the virus (low population density, small population and hot climates seem to be the most important). Lockdowns have been effective in extremely few countries, and most of those have been islands or effective islands (NZ, Japan, South Korea) with China having official figures not worth listening to, but possibly effective lockdowns because people there literally have justified extreme fear of the government and are terrified to show even small transgressions, so it may have been successful there but we have no way of really knowing.

It's really quite comical that you single out lockdowns as the largest factor in determining virus spread when Australia demonstrates this not to be the case. It does, however, perfectly fit in with the global pattern of climate and population density being the most important variables.

If you believe that a lack of lockdowns would have the entire country in the same situation as Victoria, how do you explain all the countries with minimal efforts to control the virus and trivial amounts of virus spread?

Your assertion that a couple of security guards can cause a giant outbbreak flies in the face of cases popping up in other Australian states without causing huge outbreaks. The reason is that those states don't have the same climate and population density as Victoria, so they were never as susceptible. Very very obviously, if a security guard can start such a big thing in Victoria and all other factors were irrelevant, all other states would now be having huge outbreaks because there are cases popping up in those states, but without lockdowns they are not causing big problems, and there are no lockdowns.

If you stop blindly following your nonsensical mantra and try using some logic, you'll see that what you've been saying doesn't make sense. Lockdowns obviously have some influence, but there are other more important variables. Lockdowns only provide a temporary solution at best, and obviously they must be ongoingly imposed or an outbreak is inevitable, unless it was never going to happen due to local conditions not being conducive, or because complete eradication has been achieved (which is only possible for small island nations and even then requires indefinite closure of international travel).


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

Jesus christ I'm arguing with wall on text on reddit, except it's on ASF. 

You really are "big brained" individual. Honestly, I don't think there's anything else you could have done to have proven my previous post more correct.


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## over9k (3 September 2020)

Ahahahaha omg the more I stare at all of that the more I laugh. 

I am arguing with a meme.


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## satanoperca (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Absolute drivel. Victoria's cases were down to almost nothing, then the protests & security guards happened, then cases spiked and spread like wildfire as the lockdowns we now see were only imposed weeks later.
> 
> If lockdowns didn't work, the rest of the country would be the same shitshow that victoria is. It's literally that simple. You strike me as a typical "big brained" individual that thinks that something is 1000x more complex than it really is and it is of course just so complex that only someone as clever as you can figure it out.
> 
> If not for the protests & security guards, victoria would be in the same situation as the rest of the country. This is undeniable except by either a lunatic or a liar.






over9k said:


> Ahahahaha omg the more I stare at all of that the more I laugh.
> 
> I am arguing with a meme.




If you represent the majority, we are f---kd. Read your posts and others that have contributed to the thread.


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## Smurf1976 (3 September 2020)

over9k said:


> If not for the protesters in victoria and the ruby princess idiocy, the whole country would be like NZ is at the moment. Instead, we have this bull****.



Nailed it and it couldn't be said any more simply and to the point than that.


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## Smurf1976 (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're really clutching at straws if you think using the USA as an example at the moment is relevant to any other country. If you want a much more relevant example, look at Sweden. They actually did what I would have suggested and it has proven to be the correct strategy.



If having a higher economic impact and a drastically higher death toll is the correct strategy then I'll happily stick with the "incorrect" approach of a lower economic contraction and far fewer deaths pursued elsewhere.


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## Smurf1976 (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Victoria has the most dense population and coldest climate other than Tasmania (which has very low population density and a small population size). You are ignoring the primary factors which determine what a virus will do.



Victoria might have an overall statewide average density that's higher but people don't live evenly distributed across the state.

Sydney is almost exactly the same size population as Melbourne.

Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are all substantial cities. They all have big buildings, they all have public transport and so on just as Melbourne does.

Whilst very much smaller Hobart does have a CBD as such, it does have buses, people do go to restaurants and pubs and so on. It's a small city but people do normally come in contact with others and the basic requirements to spread the virus do exist. It also has fewer options for anything by virtue of its smaller population - Eastlands and Northgate (the two largest suburban shopping centers) alone would have had a decent % of the entire population through them since this started and both are completely indoor environments.

Adelaide and Perth aren't particularly warm in Winter. People wear winter clothes and use heating in buildings yes. Adelaide also gets most of its annual rainfall during winter.

And so on. About the only thing which is truly unique to Melbourne is that trams are a significant method of transport, being either a minor thing or nonexistent elsewhere. They seem an unlikely source of the problem however given their similarity to trains and buses one or both of which operate in all cities.

The one thing which does seem markedly different in Victoria is the approach taken. At the risk of sounding rather harsh, to someone looking from the outside it looks like a population whinging about doing what needs to be done combined with a heavy handed approach to the law neither of which are in any way helping.


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## Smurf1976 (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> According to official data, the protests didn't contribute.




The problem with the protests was that they encouraged breaking of the social distancing more broadly.

In the minds of many "good enough for a political cause to have a protest? Good enough for me to have a hundred people around to my birthday party then". And there's the problem, it gave the green light to wider breaking of the rules. 

Note that I'd say the exact same thing regardless of who ran the protest or what issue they're protesting about. The problem is the mass gathering as such, as distinct from their message.


----------



## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Victoria might have an overall statewide average density that's higher but people don't live evenly distributed across the state.




As I said, Sydney is the second contender and not surprisingly has had the second highest amount of issues. Sydney has a milder winter climate and the surrounding area is very relevant; Melbourne has a worse situation with satellite towns. Melbourne also has far more lower generation Australians with far more Chinese, so started out with a higher number of introductions.



> Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are all substantial cities. They all have big buildings, they all have public transport and so on just as Melbourne does.




Substantial in some senses, but far smaller and with far far fewer and smaller satellite cities/towns, giving them far smaller effective population sizes. This has a dramatic effect on susceptibility to a virus outbreak, this is tangibly the case according to any standard outbreak modelling.



> Whilst very much smaller Hobart does have a CBD as such, it does have buses, people do go to restaurants and pubs and so on. It's a small city but people do normally come in contact with others and the basic requirements to spread the virus do exist. It also has fewer options for anything by virtue of its smaller population - Eastlands and Northgate (the two largest suburban shopping centers) alone would have had a decent % of the entire population through them since this started and both are completely indoor environments.




You don't seem to be aware that population size is extremely important, even given the same density, and Hobart is so much smaller, far less dense, very little in the way of satellite towns compared to Melbourne, and is literally on an actual island!



> Adelaide and Perth aren't particularly warm in Winter. People wear winter clothes and use heating in buildings yes. Adelaide also gets most of its annual rainfall during winter.




You don't seem to be aware that small differences in variables such as population size, population density and climate have massive effects.



> And so on. About the only thing which is truly unique to Melbourne is that trams are a significant method of transport, being either a minor thing or nonexistent elsewhere. They seem an unlikely source of the problem however given their similarity to trains and buses one or both of which operate in all cities.




Please check out some standard virus modelling algorithms, look at the important variables and how small a difference can be very relevant to the outcome. I think you'll be very surprised.



> The one thing which does seem markedly different in Victoria is the approach taken. At the risk of sounding rather harsh, to someone looking from the outside it looks like a population whinging about doing what needs to be done combined with a heavy handed approach to the law neither of which are in any way helping.




The only reason people in Melbourne are whinging is because they've been subjected to the removal of their human rights to a far more extreme extent than anyone else in Australia! Melbourne has been under far, far more extreme lockdown than anywhere else in the country, yet somehow some people such as yourself seem capable of imagining that the lockdown situation in Melbourne has been less than elsewhere.


----------



## Sdajii (3 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The problem with the protests was that they encouraged breaking of the social distancing more broadly.
> 
> In the minds of many "good enough for a political cause to have a protest? Good enough for me to have a hundred people around to my birthday party then". And there's the problem, it gave the green light to wider breaking of the rules.
> 
> Note that I'd say the exact same thing regardless of who ran the protest or what issue they're protesting about. The problem is the mass gathering as such, as distinct from their message.




I think all sorts of things about those protests were ridiculous, but you do realise that protests happened elsewhere, not just in Melbourne, right? If you're going to have a lockdown you obviously shouldn't have a protest, and if you're going to allow a protest because you fear public backlash you need to accept defeat and say lockdown isn't going to work so don't bother causing all of the destruction for little of the benefit, I'm not for a moment advocating the protests, but it's just a demonstration that the lockdowns were never going to be effective, and certainly not worth the destruction they've caused.


----------



## over9k (3 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I think all sorts of things about those protests were ridiculous, but you do realise that protests happened elsewhere, not just in Melbourne, right? If you're going to have a lockdown you obviously shouldn't have a protest, and if you're going to allow a protest because you fear public backlash you need to accept defeat and say lockdown isn't going to work so don't bother causing all of the destruction for little of the benefit, I'm not for a moment advocating the protests, but it's just a demonstration that the lockdowns were never going to be effective, and certainly not worth the destruction they've caused.



There were sister protests in NSW that were ruled unlawful and the cops swarmed on them like flies on the proverbial. The only place they went ahead was in melbourne. Sydney is number two because of the ruby princess. 

You're wrong.


----------



## Junior (4 September 2020)

The second wave in Melbourne, has all been traced back to a single family in a quarantine hotel.  To say the whole thing in Victoria is a shitsh0w is a simplistic explanation.  It could just as easily all be bad luck.

Think about that, it came from ONE family, in one hotel room.  It could have been as simple as ONE interaction by one random cleaner or hotel worker.  If not for that one interaction, we may not have ended up with any fresh restrictions or lockdowns at all.


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

There were lots of security guards wandering around the community, and there were thousands upon thousands of people at the protests. 

You expect me to believe, that with a ~2 week lead time from infection to positive test, that ~2 weeks after thousands of people protest, we get a huge outbreak, with people who were at the protest testing positive, and the same thing between security guards wandering around and outbreaks, and it's all one huge coincidence?


----------



## Junior (4 September 2020)

> Ninety per cent of Victoria's active coronavirus cases can be traced back to a family of four staying at Melbourne's Rydges on Swanston hotel, an inquiry has heard.
> .....
> The state's hotel quarantine inquiry has heard from Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) epidemiologist Charles Alpren, who said almost all of Victoria's second-wave cases could be traced back to the Rydges hotel.
> 
> ...




https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...ced-back-to-seven-travellers-inquiry/12568408


----------



## over9k (4 September 2020)

Yeah I've seen this BS from the hard left ABC. 

Only an "intellectual" would believe that the timings are a coincidence.


----------



## basilio (8 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah I've seen this BS from the hard left ABC.
> 
> Only an "intellectual" would believe that the timings are a coincidence.




The ABC simply reported the facts of where the latest outbreak originated as explained to the inquiry investigating the situation..

_The state's hotel quarantine inquiry has heard from Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) epidemiologist Charles Alpren, who said almost all of Victoria's second-wave cases could be traced back to the Rydges hotel.

He said one member of a family developed symptoms of the virus on May 9, and the other three family members became symptomatic over the next three days.

All four members of the family eventually tested positive to COVID-19, as did three other people who worked at the hotel and showed symptoms on May 25, Dr Alpren said.

By June 18, a further 17 people connected to the hotel had tested positive and showed epidemiological links to the Rydges outbreak, he said.

"They were either people working in the hotel in a range of roles, or household or social contacts of staff members," Dr Alpren said.

"Approximately 90 per cent or more of current COVID-19 infections in Victoria can be traced to the Rydges hotel."
_
There is no scope in that direct reporting of the epidemiologist Charles Alpren for "Intellectual BS from a hard left ABC". 

Any media reporting from the inquiry would have had to report the same statement of fact.


----------



## basilio (8 September 2020)

I thought this analysis of how to address the COVID situation had merit.

*A Covid Health Strategy With Integrity*
It has been my consistent position that if we’d had caring, responsible health leaders in the US (and in much of Europe, as well) many tens of thousands of lives would have been saved and millions of covid survivors would have better future health outlooks than they do today.

What would a caring, responsible public health strategy be for tackling the covid-19 pandemic, you may be wondering?

I’m glad you asked. Here’s what I would do if in charge — offered in the hopes that health policy decision-makers either follow these common-sense steps or complement them with even smarter ones.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/losing-hope-focus-on-gaining-life-instead/


----------



## over9k (8 September 2020)

Ok reddit.


----------



## IFocus (8 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah I've seen this BS from the hard left ABC.
> 
> Only an "intellectual" would believe that the timings are a coincidence.




The tracing of the virus strains now is quite good and one reason why NSW has managed so far to hold the numbers still I think NSW is skating on the edge.

Wasn't the rapid Melbourne spread in part due to Islamic cultural event?


----------



## macca (8 September 2020)

IFocus said:


> The tracing of the virus strains now is quite good and one reason why NSW has managed so far to hold the numbers still I think NSW is skating on the edge.
> 
> Wasn't the rapid Melbourne spread in part due to Islamic cultural event?




Yes, I read in one article that a guard attended an end of Ramadan party, Absolutely nothing wrong with that if he did not know he was infected.

Unfortunately, many people of the Islamic faith get very little sunshine on their skin which means they almost certainly would have low Vitamin D levels.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 September 2020)

BLM and Ramadan.

That's politics and religion.

The two things which really don't go at all well with science.

Science being what's required here both in terms of working out what to do about this pandemic and how to do it. Religion and politics are by their very nature not a good mix with that.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 September 2020)

Don't mention religion !

Joe will get into trouble from Google.


----------



## SirRumpole (11 September 2020)

Is this a case of welfare fraud ?

Companies receiving JobKeeper payments then paying large amounts of it to executives.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09...s-bonuses-despite-claiming-jobkeeper/12647688


----------



## tinhat (11 September 2020)

I know this might seem a bit out there for some folk, but now that we are thinking on the big scale of things, perhaps we should "hand back" and renege all our white folk stolen title to land back to the true owners?


----------



## over9k (11 September 2020)

No.


----------



## tinhat (11 September 2020)

I'm all for the revolution to overturn Torrens title land title. it is fraudulent. Let there be a revolution of land title in this country.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> perhaps we should "hand back" and renege all our white folk stolen title to land back to the true owners?



A lot of the original owners were completely wiped out as a species ~45,000 years ago and most that weren't wiped out then have been wiped out since but as a concept sure, we do need areas set aside for animals, the original occupiers of the land, and which humans are kept well away from.

Not sure what it's got to do with the coronavirus outbreak though? Well, not unless it wipes out a decent % of the humans and in doing so makes handing land back to nature rather easy.

I'd like to think it could be done in a more orderly, clam manner though rather than being the product of a pandemic.


----------



## PZ99 (11 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is this a case of welfare fraud ?
> 
> Companies receiving JobKeeper payments then paying large amounts of it to executives.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09...s-bonuses-despite-claiming-jobkeeper/12647688



A lot of those companies have at some stage either complained about wages or stolen wages.

And there are jokers out there still saying that cutting wages will save / create jobs. Yeah right


----------



## basilio (11 September 2020)

The news on COVID in Europe and elsewhere is sobering. Countries that thought they had it under control now have rapidly expanding illnesses and deaths.
Makes the Victorian/Australian situation look positively rosy..

*Coronavirus live news: record daily rise in cases in France and Greece*
French cases near 10,000 in a day; single biggest rise in Greece; Portugal limits gatherings to 10 people; Mexico signs agreement for Sputnik V vaccine


Central Europe faces worse second wave after avoiding worst of first
UK looks to Belgium for Covid inspiration despite infections rise
Trump admits playing down virus as total deaths exceed 900,000
AstraZeneca chief claims vaccine still possible this year
LIVE Updated 42m ago
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ed-americans-as-infections-rise-across-europe


----------



## over9k (11 September 2020)

Like I said before, we're heading into winter, which means waaaay more infections/spread/lethality up there. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. 

And that's just the wealthy countries. The poor ones are done for.


----------



## cutz (11 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Like I said before, we're heading into winter, which means waaaay more infections/spread/lethality up there.




Are you in the Northern Hemi ??

My thoughts too, we should see better days ahead down under with the end of the flu season..


----------



## over9k (11 September 2020)

Nah, but will be soon. 

Ask your doctor about the effect of cold (and we're talking freezing temps here, not just a little bit chilly) on spread & lethality, it's a BIG difference. 

Then you get the fact that we have even more time spent inside in close proximity to people and... well, it's just a recipe for disaster all round.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 September 2020)

This sounds ominous:



> One in five borrowers have ghosted their bank













						One in five borrowers have ghosted their bank
					

Senior bankers face a novel challenge in working out how to manage the tens of thousands of home loan borrowers who have decided to ghost them.




					www.afr.com
				




Basically says one in five of those who deferred their mortgage repayments during the pandemic aren't answering calls from the bank. That sounds rather ominous to me in terms of potential defaults etc.


----------



## over9k (14 September 2020)

Maybe. How many have deferred payments?


----------



## cutz (14 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Maybe. How many have deferred payments?




Apparently  480,727 customers , only just managed to read that bit just under the headline, then hit the paywall, quite an alarming figure.

Probably not just the banks are going to take a hit, I believe insurance companies have offered premium relief, many of these policies may turn into cancellations....


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> This sounds ominous:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




This whole overreaction is setting us up for drastic economic problems down the track. Imagine my surprise.

It'll be impressive if the government/media still has much of the population convinced it was all worthwhile a couple of years from now. It's shameful that anyone with half a brain cell on loan still thinks so at this point.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It'll be impressive if the government/media still has much of the population convinced it was all worthwhile a couple of years from now. It's shameful that anyone with half a brain cell on loan still thinks so at this point.



To me it has exposed a far more dangerous reality.

Cities the size of Melbourne are simply too big to allow.

Nothing more can be said. That's the single greatest learning from the whole thing. If we can't control pandemics in cities of 5 million people then quite simply we can't afford to have cities of 5 million people because next time the pandemic may well be far more deadly than this one has thus far turned out to be. That is the lesson which needs to be learned.

Now I'm not suggesting we take 2 million people from each of Sydney and Melbourne and shoot them, that's not at all the sort of thing I have in mind, but with planning regulations, taxes and government playing an active role as a developer I'm very sure that a major new city could be established in Australia and in an orderly manner the population of the big two reduced. Such a plan would need massive buy in from the states and the public but now's the time, the proverbial iron's red hot to make bold decisions.

Even if government does nothing I do think we'll see a limited move away from the big cities. Have a look pretty much anywhere that real estate is discussed and there's not exactly too much enthusiasm for either of the big two cities right now, the sentiment definitely favours smaller places. Many won't act but no doubt some will and my thinking is that even if we do see a return to "business as usual" it won't be with the same growth trajectory for Melbourne in particular, this whole thing's too big to be quickly shrugged off.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It'll be impressive if the government/media still has much of the population convinced it was all worthwhile a couple of years from now. It's shameful that anyone with half a brain cell on loan still thinks so at this point.



What happens during the coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere will make or break the issue so far as public sentiment is concerned.

One way or another, it's now Autumn in that part of the world, the temperature's starting to drop, and we're going to see what happens over the next few months and most likely that does involve one side or the other "winning" both economically (including markets) and politically.

I'm making a bold statement there but that's not without reason. There's a massive amount staked on this in every way. Money, politics and life itself - there's some huge bets being placed on both sides. Once the Northern winter hits, we'll know how it really plays out is my expectation.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Cities the size of Melbourne are simply too big to allow.




I'm sure that there are a lot of people who want to get away from the rat race, but all the rats who buy their products and services are in the big cities.

There needs to be a move from governments to ensure that services are present in regional areas before people move, otherwise most people will keep thinking that regions are 'primitive' and will stick to what they know.

Water supply will be critical, and the lack of it has been the death of many "satellite city" plans, especially west of the Great Divide.


----------



## over9k (15 September 2020)

The northern hemisphere is boned. There are a LOT more deaths to come.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> There needs to be a move from governments to ensure that services are present in regional areas before people move, otherwise most people will keep thinking that regions are 'primitive' and will stick to what they know.
> 
> Water supply will be critical, and the lack of it has been the death of many "satellite city" plans, especially west of the Great Divide.




Indeed but Smurfs don't do half measures...... 

I'm thinking government as developer, flood the market with residential and commercial land ready for building on and keep that market flooded such that the land has zero scarcity value until the city is built out. No waiting, no delay - anyone can buy one on the condition they commence physical construction on site within 12 months. All building work privately funded, government develops the land only.

Use the tax system to make it attractive for both individuals and business.

Infrastructure can fix the water problem just build it. Renewable energy and connection to the existing grid removes the proximity of coal as a consideration. Desalination and/or large water diversion infrastructure fixes that one.

Locations plenty of options. 3 million as a target population makes infrastructure very affordable so plenty of places it could go.

Yes I'm serious. If we're going to spend borrowed money to fix the economy well them might as well do something dramatic with it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

over9k said:


> The northern hemisphere is boned. There are a LOT more deaths to come.



I suspect you are right - one way or another though we're about to find out given the seasons.


----------



## over9k (15 September 2020)

Yeah. I'm just mulling a bet against oil over. I'm wondering if I might be a month late to the party or if there's more legs in the drop yet.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm just mulling a bet against oil over. I'm wondering if I might be a month late to the party or if there's more legs in the drop yet.



The existence of surplus production capacity (in the short term at least) and the involvement of governments in the industry both directly and via quotas etc is something to bear in mind in my view.

That's not necessarily bearish, but oil isn't only influenced by supply and demand there's also politics in the mix influencing price.


----------



## over9k (15 September 2020)

Oh yeah I'm a geopolitics guy so well aware of all that stuff going on. If you're interested, take a look at tanker leasing numbers lately


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> To me it has exposed a far more dangerous reality.
> 
> Cities the size of Melbourne are simply too big to allow.
> 
> ...




I doubt cities of 5 million people are going away. If you want to call this a pandemic at all, then you're including any old bug as a pandemic, and we have many of them all the time but usually we don't even pay attention. The next one will be another one we don't talk much about or even notice. Of course at some stage there will be one more deadly than this trivial one, but really, what this shows (to anyone with an open eyelid) is that people have no sense of proportion or perspective; everyone is freaking out and taking extreme measures for a trivial virus. That's not to say I have no value on human life or wellbeing or anything of the sort. If this is genuinely about human lives, it's objective insanity; look at how much money we have squandered, and look at how easily we could have saved far, far more lives with far, far less money. Look at how terrified people are of a virus which is literally probably not even going to make them sick if they're directly exposed to it, while they ignore far greater risks. If we put an equal amount of fuss and expense into every risk as high as this virus, we'd have collapsed society long ago and could simply not function. 

At the end of the day, money talks and a deviation from convenience and short-sighted pragmatism (not to be confused with true pragmatism) can only last for so long. People also have extraordinarily short memories. If it makes financial sense for cities to exist, they will.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I suspect you are right - one way or another though we're about to find out given the seasons.




I really doubt it's going to be all that bad; we now know the virus isn't anywhere near as dangerous as was first thought, and the virus is gradually becoming less deadly (as was entirely predictable from the start). There will already been some community exposure during the previous year or so, there will be hygiene measures etc, the hospitals have had a year to prepare, etc etc.

People are acting like no one ever died before this pandemic, and ignoring the obvious fact that it mostly kills people who were soon to die anyway.

If you believe in the vaccine (which I don't), you should be figuring that it'll save the day, and if you either think it will take too long or not be effective, or both, then you should see the insanity in destroying the global economy and causing so much suffering for the sake of marginally delaying the inevitable which we'll have to endure anyway, whether that inevitable part is mild or severe.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I really doubt it's going to be all that bad; we now know the virus isn't anywhere near as dangerous as was first thought,




On the contrary, the evidence is that it's a lot more dangerous than we first thought, evidence which has been pointed out many times here.

Long term effects on many organs including brains, lungs, kidneys, heart etc. 

However, choose not to believe this if you wish, you are obviously indestructible and nothing will affect you.

Not many are perfect physical specimens and prefer not to take the risk of getting this virus.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> On the contrary, the evidence is that it's a lot more dangerous than we first thought, evidence which has been pointed out many times here.
> 
> Long term effects on many organs including brains, lungs, kidneys, heart etc.
> 
> ...




You forgot to mention that those cases are extremely rare and the damage is negligible. 

You obviously gobble up the scaremongering, but in reality land, most people literally are either immune or have zero symptoms, which contrasts dramatically with the early narrative that this was a novel disease which no humans had any immunity/resistance to.

In the early stages the narrative was that this disease was going to be so devastating that our hospitals would be overwhelmed and the best we could hope for was to flatten the curve so that as few people as possible would be in the peak of the curve and unable to receive hospital care. Contrast that with the reality and hospital capacity hasn't been at any risk of being reached, let alone exceeded, let alone exceeded dramatically.

Yet here you are, looking at obscure cases and using them as 'evidence' that this disease is worse than initially feared!

I'm in regular contact with people from many countries including the USA. I don't know anyone in Australia who knows anyone who has had the virus and have barely been able to find anyone to even speak to who does. Most of my friends in the USA don't even know anyone who has had it. The only person I know first hand who has had with symptoms made a full recovery. The USA is a complete and utter mess for social and political reasons but even there, with riots etc, where supposedly the virus is worst in the world, the hospitals are not overwhelmed and people are wanting to be out and about, quite happy to engage not only in normal, necessary activity but keen to organise all sorts of other public nonsense. If there genuinely was a high risk of death or permanent damage worthy of concern, things would be a lot different. It's a worry that people are willing to not only believe the message of the blatantly dishonest media but even its absurd implications. You dismiss the genuine problems caused by the lockdowns, with gems such as saying mental health is not a concern 'because we're all in this together and we can help each other' (I know plenty of people who have suffered problems you have not and you are more than welcome to help them!) and overblow the problems of the virus while adding fictional ones on top.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You forgot to mention that those cases are extremely rare and the damage is negligible.
> 
> You obviously gobble up the scaremongering, but in reality land, most people literally are either immune or have zero symptoms, which contrasts dramatically with the early narrative that this was a novel disease which no humans had any immunity/resistance to.
> 
> ...




Well this is a report from the Mayo clinic on the long term effects of covid.









						COVID-19: Long-term effects
					

Learn about the possible long-term effects of COVID-19.




					www.mayoclinic.org
				




Did it occur to you that these cases would not be reported in the media as the effects may not be known for some time and so they may be heavily understated ?

Did it also occur to you that hospitals were not 'overwhelmed' *because* of the restrictions introduced ?

Your anecdotal evidence of the few people you have talked to is not statistically significant compared to reports by doctors who have to treat the illness.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Well this is a report from the Mayo clinic on the long term effects of covid.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Did you actually read your own link? It makes it sound about as mild and trivial as I've been saying! What point are you trying to make by providing a link which indicates that your own fearmongering is silly?

Obviously we have reduced the number of cases with lockdowns etc. You're dodging the question. It shouldn't be necessary, but he's a reiteration for you:

The initial narrative was that even with extreme lockdowns, the healthcare system would be overwhelmed. We were told it was such a bad disease with people having no immunity/resistance to it (this is now utterly debunked, ie, the virus is not anywhere near the threat it was initially assumed and the models were based on). We were told that even with extreme lockdown measures the hospital system would be overwhelmed and people would be dying because they would not be able to be treated in hospital because there was insufficient capacity. The fact that we haven't had anywhere near that amount of issue shows that the initial assumption was wrong. The assertion, which we now know was incorrect, was that we would have an overwhelmed hospital capacity, that is, even with extreme lockdowns. This hasn't happened anywhere in Australia, with or without lockdowns. Even in the USA which is the poster child of mismanagement (rightly or wrongly), the hospital system is not overwhelmed and there have been very few cases of it even there, despite the healthcare system having been a complete mess and sometimes overwhelmed even before this virus came along.

The fact that you can cling to the absurd notion that this virus is not just as bad, but worse than initially thought, shows how radically divorced from reality you are.

Deaths are nothing like we were initially told to expect, even, and this is massive, even when counting people who die with the disease are counted as having died of the disease, and you compare this figure to the initial estimates of people who would actually die of the disease!

This is tangibly the case according to official data, and yet you still say it's worse! You continually demonstrate that you are not basing your arguments on anything valid. You're clearly just working on an extreme stance of pushing the 'the virus is bad and the mitigation measures are harmless' to the greatest possible extent with absolutely no requirement to be honest (probably including with yourself) or genuine, even to the point of providing a link which proves yourself wrong. Apparently you are so biased that you see evidence which contradicts yourself but you view it through such an extreme filter that you not only believe it says something different from what it does, but you assume others will see it the same way you do!


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Even in the USA which is the poster child of mismanagement (rightly or wrongly), the hospital system is not overwhelmed and there have been very few cases of it even there, despite the healthcare system having been a complete mess and sometimes overwhelmed even before this virus came along.




Another real report, not your subjective wishful thinking.









						Coronavirus: Hospital admissions rise as US heads into Fourth of July holiday
					

Coronavirus hot-spot Arizona reaches ICU capacity of 91%




					www.thenational.ae


----------



## satanoperca (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Another real report, not your subjective wishful thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> ...






> State health officials say the occupancy rate of hospital intensive care units is at an all-time high of 91 per cent.




This means absolutely nothing, as prior to covid the occupancy rate could have been 85%. Of there was 10 ICU beds, prior 5 we occupied, during covid another 4 more where required..

Scare mongering again.


----------



## IFocus (15 September 2020)

Easy to see how the 2nd wave will bring higher numbers of deaths same as the Spanish flu.

Resistance to isolation's plus many not following the guide lines  are high in the 1st wave, 2nd wave will be all out rejection by those not affected or blinded by false opinions.

Health systems over whelmed will affect those life threaten illnesses that require high care treatment.

Northern hemisphere will become a dog fight over the issue.

Money verses health, greed over compassion.


----------



## Knobby22 (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Another real report, not your subjective wishful thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Note, new curfews. Again letting the virus run means destruction of the economy. the USA economy has really suffered and its not going away.

Israel is in big trouble and there are some very angry business people upset with the government for letting it get out of control.
Now going back into full lockdown. People are furious the government took so long to act and now complete shutdown.








						'Atmosphere of rebellion': Israel orders a second virus lockdown many have vowed to ignore
					

Israel is the first country to order a second, nationwide coronavirus lockdown. But with protesters filling the streets, Government ministers openly revolting and businesses vowing to keep trading, authorities fear a rebellion.




					www.abc.net.au
				





Many other nation states that let the virus run are now putting up restrictions.
It always spreads among the youth first then into the general populace and combined with the two week lag befor death the government always seem to leave it too late. France will be next. 

Some good news today, no deaths in Victoria. So all those people who would have died anyway are still alive


----------



## satanoperca (15 September 2020)

Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route

If true, this could have some real world implications for China.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Another real report, not your subjective wishful thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Again, you ignore being called out for lies/nonsense, and provide a link which shoots down your own message!

You're cherry picking an article from months ago which doesn't even say what you're claiming!

You literally push a false narrative and repeatedly use references which don't even support your own claims! Talk about divorced from reality!

Even if you did cherry pick an example of hospitals being briefly overwhelmed, it wouldn't support your claims, but you haven't even managed to do that!


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

IFocus said:


> Easy to see how the 2nd wave will bring higher numbers of deaths same as the Spanish flu.
> 
> Resistance to isolation's plus many not following the guide lines  are high in the 1st wave, 2nd wave will be all out rejection by those not affected or blinded by false opinions.
> 
> ...




To whatever extent this is true, it's absurd not to have accounted for human reaction in the modelling. Obviously humans are going to resist their basic human rights being removed, and it's a complete failure of policy not to take this into account. Even if you want to believe that humans *should* be willing to voluntarily surrender their freedom and human rights, you're a food if you fail to realise that they *won't*, and in doing so, you are fighting reality, and reality will win. This is even if we completely ignore the side I take, which is to say that human rights and freedoms have intrinsic importance and should be protected, and that removing them and actively causing deaths and suffering is a bad thing.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Some good news today, no deaths in Victoria. So all those people who would have died anyway are still alive




Nope! They died anyway! Do you honestly think no old people died in Victoria for a whole day? Literally hundreds did! They literally died anyway. People don't need to die of the virus to die. We simply didn't get to pretend that the virus killed those people as they died their inevitable deaths!


----------



## Knobby22 (15 September 2020)

Your death is inevitable also.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Again, you ignore being called out for lies/nonsense, and provide a link which shoots down your own message!




Listen to the medical experts on this disease. Apart from Victoria (where you are), lockdowns achieved the desired results. As as been pointed out places like the US and Israel have let the virus get away and have reinstated lockdowns.


----------



## satanoperca (15 September 2020)

s







SirRumpole said:


> Listen to the medical experts on this disease. Apart from Victoria (where you are), lockdowns achieved the desired results. As as been pointed out places like the US and Israel have let the virus get away and have reinstated lockdowns.




Too early to call, state and international borders are still locked. Until they are lifted and we return to a relatively normal life, will we know if the lockdowns have actually worked?


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> s
> 
> Too early to call, state and international borders are still locked. Until they are lifted and we return to a relatively normal life, will we know if the lockdowns have actually worked?




International borders are not "locked". People can still get in as long as they quarantine. And quarantine is where the majority of cases arise.


----------



## satanoperca (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> International borders are not "locked". People can still get in as long as they quarantine. And quarantine is where the majority of cases arise.



Yes, people are going to come here for holidays or business and be locked up for 14 days.

And if you don't think they are locked, ask the 18,000 Australians trying to return.

Please, strawman argument.

Oh, so lets be on-topic, just ask Qantas staff if the borders are open for business.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Listen to the medical experts on this disease. Apart from Victoria (where you are), lockdowns achieved the desired results. As as been pointed out places like the US and Israel have let the virus get away and have reinstated lockdowns.




Yet again you dodge the question. You make a false assertion, get called on it, provide a link which proves yourself wrong, change the topic and get it wrong again, get called on it, provide yet another link to prove yet another of your own assertions wrong, and now you change the topic yet again! This is especially disgusting since many of your points are honestly quite shameful. 

I'm not going to respond to this point here because it is different from the multiple points I called you on earlier which you cowardly avoided addressing further when you were clearly wrong, and you are using this one posing as a point I disagree with, merely as a decoy.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Your death is inevitable also.




Indeed, but I am not at risk of dying if I catch the virus, almost entirely because I'm not at high risk of dying of anything else in the next few months, or couple of years or so. The people who did die in the last 24 hours would have died if they caught the virus, and would have been counted as virus deaths, very misleadingly so, but this is openly the practice of the official authorities in most countries, very much including Australia.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Yet again you dodge the question. You make a false assertion, get called on it, provide a link which proves yourself wrong, change the topic and get it wrong again, get called on it, provide yet another link to prove yet another of your own assertions wrong, and now you change the topic yet again! This is especially disgusting since many of your points are honestly quite shameful.
> 
> I'm not going to respond to this point here because it is different from the multiple points I called you on earlier which you cowardly avoided addressing further when you were clearly wrong, and you are using this one posing as a point I disagree with, merely as a decoy.




What false assertion ?


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> International borders are not "locked". People can still get in as long as they quarantine. And quarantine is where the majority of cases arise.




It's appalling how blatantly you are willing to misrepresent things. If I could leave Australia with the only obstacle being an affordable 14 days in quarantine, I'd have been out in March. I have foreign friends in Australia desperate to leave, but flights are simply not available to them. I have several friends separated from their families due to international border closures. I am trapped in Australia after intending to be here for only a week or two, absolutely desperate to leave. I know plenty of people wanting to come to Australia but it is not possible at this time.

If you think international borders are not locked you have no idea what you're talking about, and if you do know, you are extremely dishonest. Heck, I can't even currently travel interstate with a simple 14 day quarantine being the only obstacle. I'm literally not currently allowed more than 5km from my current location, and in a couple of hours I won't be allowed 20m from my current location. Literally about 5 million people, around 20% of Australia's population, are in the same situation. It's very easy for you, completely ignorant and willfully so, to dismiss other people's problems are unimportant or nonexistent, but it just makes you a bad person.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's appalling how blatantly you are willing to misrepresent things. If I could leave Australia with the only obstacle being an affordable 14 days in quarantine, I'd have been out in March. I have foreign friends in Australia desperate to leave, but flights are simply not available to them. I have several friends separated from their families due to international border closures. I am trapped in Australia after intending to be here for only a week or two, absolutely desperate to leave. I know plenty of people wanting to come to Australia but it is not possible at this time.
> 
> If you think international borders are not locked you have no idea what you're talking about, and if you do know, you are extremely dishonest. Heck, I can't even currently travel interstate with a simple 14 day quarantine being the only obstacle. I'm literally not currently allowed more than 5km from my current location, and in a couple of hours I won't be allowed 20m from my current location. Literally about 5 million people, around 20% of Australia's population, are in the same situation. It's very easy for you, completely ignorant and willfully so, to dismiss other people's problems are unimportant or nonexistent, but it just makes you a bad person.




Idiot. Locked means no one can get in or out, but people are getting in and out, the fact that it's not easy is beside the point.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Idiot. Locked means no one can get in or out, but people are getting in and out, the fact that it's not easy is beside the point.




It's not beside the point when it is impossible for people. Again, your attitude is utterly shameful and disgusting. Your lack of empathy is appalling. There are literally many people desperate to return to their home countries and/or families who would do anything within their power to move, but they are unable to.

And you have the nerve to act like the challenges are beside the point!

Even if we completely ignore any human suffering. Even if we completely discard every last shred of our humanity as you are close to having done, making it effectively impossible to move, even if it is technically possible for a few individuals, means it is effectively impossible, and this is the case for the economy and community as much as for individual human wellbeing.

And you have the nerve to call someone else an idiot, while in a situation like this claiming international borders are not closed.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's not beside the point when it is impossible for people. Again, your attitude is utterly shameful and disgusting. Your lack of empathy is appalling. There are literally many people desperate to return to their home countries and/or families who would do anything within their power to move, but they are unable to.
> 
> And you have the nerve to act like the challenges are beside the point!
> 
> ...




BTW, were you on Hard Quiz last week ?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 September 2020)

It would be interesting to see if there has been a suicide rate spike in Victoria due to Chairman Dan's tyranny.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> At the end of the day, money talks and a deviation from convenience and short-sighted pragmatism (not to be confused with true pragmatism) can only last for so long. People also have extraordinarily short memories. If it makes financial sense for cities to exist, they will.



I agree that's the likely outcome but as a concept it has a lot in common with someone surviving what turned out to be a very minor heart attack and failing to heed the warnings. Back on the smokes, back on the chips and burgers. We know how the story ends in due course.......

It seems that places the size of Adelaide (1.3 million) can deal with this sort of thing but places the size of Melbourne (5 million) can't. Whilst I expect you're right, ultimately it's setting us up for another problem sometime down the track if we continue having 40% of the national population in two places which are problematically large in terms of controlling any disease outbreak.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Not many are perfect physical specimens and prefer not to take the risk of getting this virus.




Take out the two thirds of the population that's overweight.

Then take out the smokers, alcohol drinkers, illicit drug users, those with poor diet, lack of exercise or some existing health problem or damage from past things.

What's left would be stuff all.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Take out the two thirds of the population that's overweight.
> 
> Then take out the smokers, alcohol drinkers, illicit drug users, those with poor diet, lack of exercise or some existing health problem or damage from past things.
> 
> What's left would be stuff all.



Plus those of us over 60 whose lives aren't worth saving apparently.


----------



## Joe Blow (15 September 2020)

Let's keep this thread on topic and stick to discussing the economic implications and effects of COVID-19.

If you just want to discuss COVID-19 more generally then please do so over at the Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion thread.

Thanks.


----------



## noirua (15 September 2020)

The economic outlook is a difficult one to assess whether you live in a high covid-19 catchment area or a low one.  Remembering that the virus can lurk in unexpected places like dank spots in rivers. After all it was thought to have originated in animal carcasses.
The effect on an economy may still be bad even though there are few cases as other countries are in desperate trouble and demand for produce from abroad is dropping.  Many countries are now piling cash into their economies whilst borrowing at very low interest rates and often below 1%. It cant go on and reality will hit home in 2021 when they raise taxation, unemployment grows and recession arrives fast turning into the worse depression since the 18th century for a few.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I agree that's the likely outcome but as a concept it has a lot in common with someone surviving what turned out to be a very minor heart attack and failing to heed the warnings. Back on the smokes, back on the chips and burgers. We know how the story ends in due course.......
> 
> It seems that places the size of Adelaide (1.3 million) can deal with this sort of thing but places the size of Melbourne (5 million) can't. Whilst I expect you're right, ultimately it's setting us up for another problem sometime down the track if we continue having 40% of the national population in two places which are problematically large in terms of controlling any disease outbreak.




You may be right about this, conceptually, with people having a tendency to discount a problem if it comes and goes without biting. You do indeed see smokers continuing to smoke even after having a lung removed, etc (and honestly, they probably might as well, because at that stage there's already a heap of genetic damage done, cancer is inevitable from all the previous smoking, and the fresh smoking won't have time to kill them before the damage from their earlier smoking will, so why torture yourself quitting at that stage if it was obviously already such a problem for you?), while a smaller number of individuals will quit due to the scare. Same with being fat and having a heart attack, etc. We see people follow convenience and money to their own detriment. Plenty of people take on dangerous or destructive occupations, they work in jobs they hate and find stressful (stress being not only unpleasant but also quite deadly), etc etc. We'll definitely see a move by a few individuals away from the cities, but in the big picture little will change. But I really don't see it as being that big a deal. Property prices will probably crash in Melbourne and to a lesser extent regional Victoria over the next few years, and all the economic destruction down here will take a good long while to recover, and in some ways it will have a permanent effect.

Working from home will be a bigger thing, I think we would all agree on that, but I think city structures will remain relatively unchanged. Think about this: What percentage of the population do you think would rush over to join a crowd if I was giving away free smartphones or laptops or pizzas? I dare say most of them, even though if you'd asked them five minutes earlier most of them would have said they're concerned about the virus and want to avoid crowds. If people have to travel further or pay more or have less access to popular bars, etc etc, this day to day comfort, pleasure, convenience and economic benefit will entire them and drive their decisions far more than some vague threat of an event which 'will probably never happen'. Most people will still commute, and those in corporate work from home jobs will still want to be available to come in at short notice when the need arises, because the guy who does that gets the promotion and the guy who says he can't, doesn't. Over time, a similar number of people to before will be willing to take the same risks as before.

If everyone took actual serious, tangible, legitimate dangers seriously we wouldn't have people having unprotected sex with strangers, we wouldn't have people smoking or being fat or sharing syringes. There are plenty of these things I wouldn't do, but the older I get, the more I see that fortune favours the brave, those who throw caution to the wind in the pursuit of glory. I'm not sure what percentage of the population will be affected in what way, but at least some people will come out of this desensitised to the threat of pandemics. 'Is that all a pandemic is? I don't even know anyone who so much as coughed!' and to some extent we'll have a lower level of concern than before the pandemic, at least in some individuals. People who are scared into isolating themselves will fare more poorly, and while some will do it, it won't be a particularly common strategy; it never has been and never will be, and this is a fundamental biological concept which isn't even restricted to humans, because it goes against the fundamental principle of fortune favouring the brave.


----------



## Sdajii (15 September 2020)

noirua said:


> The economic outlook is a difficult one to assess whether you live in a high covid-19 catchment area or a low one.  Remembering that the virus can lurk in unexpected places like dank spots in rivers. After all it was thought to have originated in animal carcasses.




The virus originating in animal carcasses at the wet market is just one of the early media stories which were pushed, which are now totally debunked. The wet market one was the most popular, but for various reasons it doesn't make sense, including the fact that the host species (Horseshoe Bats) has never been sold at the wet market dead or alive and don't naturally occur within a thousand km of the location.

One of the really obvious things (or at least it should be obvious) is that there isn't all that strong a correlation between the prevalence of the virus and the amount of economic damage caused. The damage is caused by human choices (shutting down businesses etc, and the choices/abilities of countries they would generally be dealing with). A very good example is the country I was in just before getting trapped in Australia, Thailand. Thailand has had almost no cases of the virus, I think they've found only 2 individual cases in the last 4 months or so, but their economy has been utterly devastated this year. Sweden is often being used as an example of high case numbers and high economic damage, but that damage has not been caused by a reduction in ability to be productive, it's caused by interactions with other countries (much like Thailand, although their damage hasn't been as bad despite higher case numbers). 




> The effect on an economy may still be bad even though there are few cases as other countries are in desperate trouble and demand for produce from abroad is dropping.  Many countries are now piling cash into their economies whilst borrowing at very low interest rates and often below 1%. It cant go on and reality will hit home in 2021 when they raise taxation, unemployment grows and recession arrives fast turning into the worse depression since the 18th century for a few.




This is pretty much the story. We're not going to fix things until we get moving again, and the only thing stopping us from doing that at the moment is irrational fear. We'll either get out of it by just snapping out of our insanity, as countries see each other moving forward and following because they don't want to be left behind, whether it's the government making the decision or the population demanding it. Likely a vaccine (which at best will have moderate efficacy, more likely minimal) will allow countries to safe face to some extent; currently they would simply have to admit to having made a mistake in order to move forward, which would be political suicide, and this is clearly one of the reasons the fear narrative is so widely being pushed in the mean time.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 September 2020)

Just a little chart that I whipped up using information from trading economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/)


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## satanoperca (15 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Just a little chart that I whipped up using information from trading economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/)
> 
> 
> View attachment 109182



Where did that chart come from?

If correct, it seems that China are smarter than the rest of the world and their potential plan has worked perfectly.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (15 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Where did that chart come from?
> 
> If correct, it seems that China are smarter than the rest of the world and their potential plan has worked perfectly.




I built the chart in Excel using data from trading economics. I will do another chart for unemployment now.


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## Chronos-Plutus (15 September 2020)

Here is the unemployment impact chart using data from trading economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/):


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## Smurf1976 (16 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> We'll definitely see a move by a few individuals away from the cities, but in the big picture little will change. But I really don't see it as being that big a deal. Property prices will probably crash in Melbourne and to a lesser extent regional Victoria over the next few years, and all the economic destruction down here will take a good long while to recover, and in some ways it will have a permanent effect.



I think it's fair to say that Melbourne's population on 1 January 2022 (to pick a date) will be lower than it would have been without the pandemic.

By how much and what that means for house prices is a harder question but I think it's a fair assumption that the overall impact will be negative. 

Where that thinking goes is that markets are made at the margin. It only needs a few % imbalance in the housing market to have at least some impact on price, especially so if there are forced sellers in the mix as seems plausible.

A lot of assumptions on my part there but I think they're reasonable given the circumstances. Overall it's going to be a trend break from "business as usual" which isn't erased quickly.


----------



## noirua (16 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The virus originating in animal carcasses at the wet market is just one of the early media stories which were pushed, which are now totally debunked. The wet market one was the most popular, but for various reasons it doesn't make sense, including the fact that the host species (Horseshoe Bats) has never been sold at the wet market dead or alive and don't naturally occur within a thousand km of the location.




If this article is correct about sewage there is every reason to think twice before entering rivers, streams or anywhere similar that is fed by a river.  If this is so it could explain how animals can be affected. Probably covid-19 was there all the time.








						SARS-CoV-2 found in river water, flags risk for humans, wildlife and livestock
					

Now, a new study by scientists in Ecuador and published on the preprint server medRxiv in June 2020 shows that the virus is present in river water too, which could imply a significant transmission risk in developing countries with inadequate sanitation facilities.




					www.news-medical.net
				



*Global Economic Outlook - September 2020*
7 September


			https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/global-economic-outlook-september-2020-07-09-2020


----------



## Sdajii (16 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think it's fair to say that Melbourne's population on 1 January 2022 (to pick a date) will be lower than it would have been without the pandemic.
> 
> By how much and what that means for house prices is a harder question but I think it's a fair assumption that the overall impact will be negative.
> 
> ...




Absolutely. Housing is a fairly inelastic market. More or less, people need a building to live in, and the degree to which they can squeeze more people into buildings is limited. When you have an inelastic market, a small change in supply or demand dramatically alters the price. The desire for people to come to Victoria will be dramatically reduced given this year's insanity, the desire to leave will be higher than ever, and there will presumably be significantly fewer than usual foreign students in Melbourne. Add to this a significant number of people unable to meet their mortgage repayments, and you have a setup for a housing price crash in Melbourne, which of course will have a non trivial flow on effect for the economy of Melbourne, Victoria and Australia (about 20% of all Australian people live in Melbourne, it's quite significant).

On top of this, you have so many closed businesses in Melbourne, so many people unemployed, there will be widespread depression/mental health issues (these tend to be chronic once the occur), once the government handouts are cut back over the next however many months you're going to see an increase in crime, there has already been a huge increase in domestic violence incidents, and public attitude towards the police is utterly collapsing... I really think people aren't understanding the problems being caused here, especially people currently comfortable living elsewhere in Australia imagining that the issues here don't exist. The media certainly isn't painting the same picture I'm seeing at street level, and I've been getting the opportunity to see it in a range of locations in Melbourne (which do actually differ substantially from each other in some cases).


----------



## satanoperca (16 September 2020)

Simply put, the world has gone mad.

Too much information in the hands of idiots is dangerous.

The economic impact of poor decisions is going to be large.


----------



## over9k (16 September 2020)

I know man. I don't know why policy makers don't just consult reddit.


----------



## qldfrog (16 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Note, new curfews. Again letting the virus run means destruction of the economy. the USA economy has really suffered and its not going away.
> 
> Israel is in big trouble and there are some very angry business people upset with the government for letting it get out of control.
> Now going back into full lockdown. People are furious the government took so long to act and now complete shutdown.
> ...



Are they?
Does this country knows you can actually die from other cause than covid?


----------



## Knobby22 (16 September 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Are they?
> Does this country knows you can actually die from other cause than covid?



We are talking economic damage. 
The effect of letting it run causes economic damage.  Didn't mention deaths except as an aside in Victoria with a wink. Just a side effect.

Israel were a success, then they let it run. Now look at them, a basket case.


----------



## Sdajii (16 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> We are talking economic damage.
> The effect of letting it run causes economic damage.  Didn't mention deaths except as an aside in Victoria with a wink. Just a side effect.
> 
> Israel were a success, then they let it run. Now look at them, a basket case.




Israel is yet another example of the trend we are increasingly seeing as time goes on. Some of us were saying it from the start and most of those who demanded that it wasn't the case are still digging their heels in, but take a look at your own example here. 

Lockdowns are only expensive ways to kick the can down the road before getting hit anyway. Whether or not you think the deaths are the cause of the economic damage, you can see that Israel put work into avoiding the virus spreading, then... it happened anyway.

You can not lock down forever because it is economically (as well as socially etc) devastating. The virus exists. The virus will not be eliminated. Lockdown only works while you're locked down. Eventually you need to come out of lockdown. When you do, you're out of lockdown, and it's just a matter of time before whatever would have happened without lockdown will happen, because you're not in lockdown. The damage of the virus (however extreme you do or don't consider it to be) will come anyway, it's just a question of how soon you want to get through it and how much damage you want to cause in the mean time. If the world took a Sweden approach, we'd already be through it and the whole world would be getting on with normal life. Sweden is still there, it's not like they had half the population die or anything (or 5% or 0.5%, or 0.00005% of the people who would have otherwise been not old and not dying anyway). Sweden has had a negligible death rate, even if you count all Swedes who die with the virus as having died of the virus, even if they were asymptomatic. Inevitably, the world needs to get back on its feet, we're just causing harm (economic along with other harm) delaying this process.

To put Sweden's number of virus deaths (around 6,000) into context, close to 60,000 people in Sweden have died this year, about the same number as last year or the year before. About 10% of the people who died this year had the virus at the time. Most would have died this year without the virus.

People are acting like 6,000 old and sick people dying is some sort of unprecedented tragedy, ignoring the fact that these were mostly going to be among the approximately 90,000 people who die each year in Sweden even if they never caught the virus.

The numbers are there, extremely clear now, and anyone who bothers to look can see them.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (16 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Israel is yet another example of the trend we are increasingly seeing as time goes on. Some of us were saying it from the start and most of those who demanded that it wasn't the case are still digging their heels in, but take a look at your own example here.
> 
> Lockdowns are only expensive ways to kick the can down the road before getting hit anyway. Whether or not you think the deaths are the cause of the economic damage, you can see that Israel put work into avoiding the virus spreading, then... it happened anyway.
> 
> ...




I think the maximum suppression strategy is a path to economic suicide. I am not saying to let the virus go out of control; rather that we should suppress the virus relative to our health care/system capacity until we get a vaccine or the virus becomes endemic.

Even if we get a vaccine, I probably won't take it because I am only 36.


----------



## Knobby22 (16 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I think the maximum suppression strategy is a path to economic suicide. I am not saying to let the virus go out of control; rather that we should suppress the virus relative to our health care/system capacity until we get a vaccine or the virus becomes endemic.
> 
> Even if we get a vaccine, I probably won't take it because I am only 36.





Here are your odds (from New York death results) as of May 13. Obviously pretty good. One within those rare 30 year old range deaths was the male Broadway star with a young family who succumbed with no underlying issues (posted previously). Can't help bad luck.  



AGE​Number of DeathsShare of deathsWith underlying conditionsWithout underlying conditionsUnknown if with underlying cond.Share of deaths
of unknown + w/o cond.*0 - 17* *years old*​9​*0.06%*​6​3​0​0.02%​*18 - 44* *years old*​601​*3.9%*​476​17​108​0.8%​*45 - 64* *years old*​3,413​*22.4%*​2,851​72​490​3.7%​*65 - 74* *years old*​3,788​*24.9%*​2,801​5​982​6.5%​*75+* *years old*​7,419​*48.7%*​5,236​2​2,181​14.3%​*TOTAL*​*15,230*​100%​11,370 (75%)​99 (0.7%)​1,551 (24.7%)​25.3%​


​


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (16 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Here are your odds (from New York death results) as of May 13. Obviously pretty good. One within those rare 30 year old range deaths was the male Broadway star with a young family who succumbed with no underlying issues (posted previously). Can't help bad luck.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Calculating my odds of death from the virus based on the New York statistics
Age bracket 36 years old with no underlying conditions:
17 deaths with no underlying conditions +108 deaths unknown underlying conditions
= (125 deaths in my assumed category / 15,230 total deaths) x 100
= *.82% chance of death if I get the virus*

With a chance less than 1% of fatality; I will take my chances rather than put a vaccine into my body that has been rushed with potentially unknown side effects.


----------



## over9k (16 September 2020)

It's a shame I can't just go & get this thing & give it to my grandmother. It'd be a great way to knock her off & get the inheritance early.

I mean, she IS old. Her life doesn't matter.


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## SirRumpole (16 September 2020)

265 Australian economists back suppression of covid before economic considerations.









						Open letter from 265 Australian economists: don't sacrifice health for 'the economy'
					

Leading Australian economists in four countries have signed an open letter calling on the national cabinet to think carefully before easing restrictions ‘for the sake of 'the economy’.




					theconversation.com


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## satanoperca (16 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Here are your odds (from New York death results) as of May 13. Obviously pretty good. One within those rare 30 year old range deaths was the male Broadway star with a young family who succumbed with no underlying issues (posted previously). Can't help bad luck.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



GREAT WORK

For the ages of 75+ with no known underlying conditions, it would be interesting to explore this further, if the data was available, ie autopsies. Somehow I think at least 50% of this group with no underlying conditions would have underlying conditions.


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## satanoperca (16 September 2020)

*So this is 100% a man-made economic disaster.*


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## Chronos-Plutus (16 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> 265 Australian economists back suppression of covid before economic considerations.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





If these economists were put on JobSeeker allowances; I wonder if their opinion would change. Going from a hundred thousand plus a year to $800 a fortnight would make them think twice. These economists have cushy jobs in academia, banks or government. They are disconnected from reality, as such their opinion is compromised.

I agree with keeping the international borders closed while this virus rages across the planet; but this idea of maximum suppression, COVID free, and/or COVID elimination is really just an impossible task. We need to be realistic about what we are dealing with.

The reality is that this virus will likely spread through the entire global population before an effective vaccine is produced. I agree with suppression relative to the capacity of our health care system; whilst maintaining closure of international borders to ensure our hospital beds are available for Australians.

This discussion needs to be intelligent; I hope people who are making pathetic statements about their grandmothers; just start thinking before they type.


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## Chronos-Plutus (16 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Simply put, the world has gone mad.
> 
> Too much information in the hands of idiots is dangerous.
> 
> The economic impact of poor decisions is going to be large.




I would like to see a journalist ask Scomo or his Chief Health Advisor:

Is it likely that this virus will spread throughout the entire country, with maximum suppression, before we get an effective vaccine?

If they don't have an answer, then they should go do some statistical health analysis to find out.

If the answer is YES; then logically we should keep our international borders shut and only apply a level of suppression relative to our health care capacity.


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## Knobby22 (16 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> GREAT WORK
> 
> For the ages of 75+ with no known underlying conditions, it would be interesting to explore this further, if the data was available, ie autopsies. Somehow I think at least 50% of this group with no underlying conditions would have underlying conditions.




The virus puts the body under stress like red lining a car.
Boris passed the stress test but struggled. Needed supplementary oxygen, probably would not have made it otherwise.

If you are older it is more likely something will fail and your immune response will be weaker in any case.

If you are unfit that would be enough even without an underlying condition. You could just be unlucky.


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## Junior (16 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If the world took a Sweden approach, we'd already be through it and the whole world would be getting on with normal life. Sweden is still there, it's not like they had half the population die or anything (or 5% or 0.5%, or 0.00005% of the people who would have otherwise been not old and not dying anyway). Sweden has had a negligible death rate, even if you count all Swedes who die with the virus as having died of the virus, even if they were asymptomatic. Inevitably, the world needs to get back on its feet, we're just causing harm (economic along with other harm) delaying this process.
> 
> To put Sweden's number of virus deaths (around 6,000) into context, close to 60,000 people in Sweden have died this year, about the same number as last year or the year before. About 10% of the people who died this year had the virus at the time. Most would have died this year without the virus.
> 
> ...




Hi Sdajii, you talk about Sweden a lot.  The latest economic data shows a 8.3% contraction in their economy for the June quarter, by far the biggest downturn since GDP records began 40 years ago.  Is there evidence that their approach has protected their economy, jobs etc.?  Otherwise they have taken a double hit, an economic hit, and high death rate.  

Furthermore, if you're going to accept living with the virus, you need to lock away all your elderly from the rest of society.  And those elderly who aren't locked away, will be stuck at home and living in fear of contracting teh virus anyway.  It's a massive price to pay, so you'd want to see a very strong case that it's worthwhile from an economic and quality of life perspective.

Aside from the pain we are going through in Melbourne, which will end soon, I'm looking at how the rest of Australia (and New Zealand) are functioning, and it seems like a far better outcome thus far, compared with the likes of Sweden or the US.


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## satanoperca (16 September 2020)

@Junior, while you may be correct, Sweden has taken a hit to GDP, they are almost through it.
But a GDP figure cannot be looked in isolation.
How much did their govnuts stimulate the economy this year.
I bet my bottom dollar, if you remove all the state and fed stimulus from Oz, our GDP hit would be even larger.


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## SirRumpole (16 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I bet my bottom dollar, if you remove all the state and fed stimulus from Oz, our GDP hit would be even larger.




Of course it would have been, that's what the stimulus was for !


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## satanoperca (16 September 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Of course it would have been, that's what the stimulus was for !




Exactly my point, it has to be paid back, unless you have money tree, dragging on our GDP figures for years to come.


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## Knobby22 (16 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> @Junior, while you may be correct, Sweden has taken a hit to GDP, they are almost through it.
> But a GDP figure cannot be looked in isolation.
> How much did their govnuts stimulate the economy this year.
> I bet my bottom dollar, if you remove all the state and fed stimulus from Oz, our GDP hit would be even larger.




I looked it up 
Sweden is spending heaps, they are a socialist country after all.

Paying half of business rents, big support payments where workers get 90% of their previous salary. $30 billion at the start  $70 billion announced recently called the restart the economy plan.
Much more stuff. Just google Swedish Stimulus. They make Morrison look tight fisted.


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## SirRumpole (17 September 2020)

Signs of a pulse in the airline industry.









						'It's not all doom and gloom' as Rex considers flying regional Australia routes
					

Regional air carrier Rex promises to return Government favour and consider flying regional routes that Virgin Australia no longer services.




					www.abc.net.au


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## moXJO (17 September 2020)

NSW has it right imo. No need to look overseas.


As for comparing covid to Spanish flu: 210 million people would have needed to die from Covid-19 to be at the same rate as Spanish flu.

So it does feel like fear mongering to a certain degree. I don't agree with how far government is overstepping boundaries when it comes to people's rights. Especially when it was not science/health backed.


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## IFocus (17 September 2020)

Junior said:


> Hi Sdajii, you talk about Sweden a lot.  The latest economic data shows a 8.3% contraction in their economy for the June quarter, by far the biggest downturn since GDP records began 40 years ago.  Is there evidence that their approach has protected their economy, jobs etc.?  Otherwise they have taken a double hit, an economic hit, and high death rate.
> 
> Furthermore, if you're going to accept living with the virus, *you need to lock away all your elderly from the rest of society. * And those elderly who aren't locked away, will be stuck at home and living in fear of contracting teh virus anyway.  It's a massive price to pay, so you'd want to see a very strong case that it's worthwhile from an economic and quality of life perspective.
> 
> Aside from the pain we are going through in Melbourne, which will end soon, I'm looking at how the rest of Australia (and New Zealand) are functioning, and it seems like a far better outcome thus far, compared with the likes of Sweden or the US.





To add to your point you would also have to lock away all the work force that work with the elderly (nursing homes) and their families.

Keeping the virus out of nursing care would be very hard just had my mother move into care and asked all the nursing homes we visited about COVID in short they were all terrified about it and made no bones about it but glad they were in virus free WA.


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## cutz (17 September 2020)

Read this today, I thought it could be of interest..









						Victorian government economist resigns in protest of Dan Andrews
					

Sanjeev Sabhlok resigned from the Victorian Treasury last week after rallying against Melbourne's strict COVID-19 lockdowns and politicians online.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## satanoperca (17 September 2020)

IFocus said:


> To add to your point you would also have to lock away all the work force that work with the elderly (nursing homes) and their families.
> 
> Keeping the virus out of nursing care would be very hard just had my mother move into care and asked all the nursing homes we visited about COVID in short they were all terrified about it and made no bones about it but glad they were in virus free WA.



Did you also ask them if they were concerned with Influenza, poor diet etc


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## basilio (17 September 2020)

I posed this question a few times in COVID forums on ASF.

*"What will be the consequences of a couple of infected people circulating at a big wedding/funeral/ celebration "*
What could we anticipate expecting in terms of deaths and serious illnesses ?
From an economic POV how can we talk about opening up our economy when  the evidence is clear that such normal activities will create havoc?

To date no one has resonded to the question the issue. I raise  it again because , *yet again*, such an  event has created a swathe of death and illnesses. In my original post I suggested 1-2 deaths and 10-15 serious illnesses resulting from the wedding party. The reality is far grimmer.

And guess what ? *Not a single person at the wedding has died.* It is the people far and wide who were infected from the wedding party who ended up dead.

Some posters on this thread seem completely in denial about the  effects of unrestrained transmission of this disease. One would think the facts of hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of serious illnesses should give pause for thought when talking about the consequence of not controlling this disease
*Maine 'superspreader' wedding linked to 170 Covid cases and seven deaths*

More than 100 people gathered for August event in Millinocket
‘It is spreading in the community with remarkable force’
A rural church wedding and reception on a beautiful day in the shadow of Mount Katahdin was no doubt a happy day. But it has spread misery ever since.
That single event on 7 August is linked to coronavirus outbreaks in at least two other locations in Maine, with more than 170 people contracting the virus and seven deaths since.

....None of those who died actually attended the wedding and reception. The first of the deaths was reported in Millinocket, where no one has tested positive for several weeks, the town manager said on Wednesday.

The ramifications were swift.
The reception venue lost its business license, briefly, and hired a public relations firm. The pastor hired a law firm that specializes in religious liberty.

The outbreak changed the calculus of state health officials, who urged renewed vigilance in a state that had largely controlled the virus previously, Shah said.

“It is spreading in the community in and around York county with remarkable force,” he said.









						Maine 'superspreader' wedding linked to 170 Covid cases and seven deaths
					

More than 100 people gathered for August event in Millinocket as public health official admits: ‘It is spreading in the community with remarkable force’




					www.theguardian.com
				












						Coronavirus: Maine wedding is linked to deaths of 7 people who didn't attend
					

As officials continue to push preventive measures, such as wearing masks and practicing social distancing to keep infection rates low, they also have been vocal in warning against large gatherings.




					abc7.com


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## satanoperca (17 September 2020)

@bas, I will have a crack at answering your questions.


> In my original post I suggested 1-2 deaths and 10-15 serious illnesses resulting from the wedding party. The reality is far grimmer.



While it is always wise to create outliners to test the robustness of a system, they are just outliners, and your test scenario is not based on any factual information. It is more based on fear of the unknown.



> That single event on 7 August is linked to coronavirus outbreaks in at least two other locations in Maine, with more than 170 people contracting the virus and seven deaths since.




While I would agree this is tragic, it fails again to provide any factual information that decisions or comments can be made upon.

Where the seven deaths related to preexisting conditions? How old were the people?



> None of those who died actually attended the wedding and reception.




So how has it been determined that those attending the funeral caused a chain of infectious events to infect those that died?

Did those that died have no other contact with any other person but those attending the funeral?



> The reception venue lost its business license, briefly, and hired a public relations firm.



 That is crap, but until our govnuts take the time to study and analyze the situation and then convey to the public this is something/virus that we are going to have to accept and work with it. The economic carnage is going to be greater than the virus itself.

So will provide some direction to my comments, how people are quite easily manipulated into believing a situation is more real/deadly than actually is.

A headline for a news site:


> China reports outbreak of brucellosis disease ‘way larger’ than originally thought
> An outbreak of a potentially deadly disease that can lead to inflamed testicles and leave men infertile is “way larger” than first thought.






> It’s usually spread to humans from animals, often via undercooked meat, but also through consuming unpasteurised dairy products such as raw milk and cheese.
> However, it can also be inhaled which is how the thousands in Lanzhou were infected.




Sounds scary, did we keep the borders closed, isolate everyone, until this new disease is suppressed.

BUT NO



> However, it has now been discovered that the Lanzhou Biopharmaceutical Plant had been accidentally pumping out the brucella bacteria while, ironically, producing a vaccine for brucellosis.




Join the dots, you will find your answers, but they may not be the answers to the questions that you find acceptable.


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## IFocus (17 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Did you also ask them if they were concerned with Influenza, poor diet etc





Yes along with many other questions, it was a interesting exercise comparing the many options, in the end it came down to how you feel about the carers that look after your love one.

In terms of procedure protocols for dealing with COVID it was across the board that they they would lock down and allow no visitors.

The levels of PPE were below any real acceptable standards for infection control.


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## Smurf1976 (18 September 2020)

Ignoring what should or shouldn't happen and looking at what is actually happening, I see media reports that secondhand car values have increased substantially.

Some of that would presumably be due to consumers avoiding purchasing new cars due to the overall economic situation, thus meaning a lower supply of secondhand vehicles, but it is reported that also many are buying an additional car (eg single car household going to two cars) so as go avoid using public transport and the associated risk of catching COVID-19 and/or the hassles of having to wear a mask and so on.

I'd be surprised if at least some didn't stick with that permanently. Just thinking personally but of those I've known who've switched from public transport to driving to work, I can't recall even one who later went back to public transport. The change was always permanent once they made it.


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## over9k (18 September 2020)

Duh. This is econ 101 level stuff. Superior vs inferior goods.


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## Smurf1976 (18 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Duh. This is econ 101 level stuff. Superior vs inferior goods.



The issue is that the definition of what is superior is changing for some consumers at least and is reversed. What was seen as superior is now seen as inferior and vice versa.

Not by everyone obviously, but by some certainly and by enough to move markets - cars, property, relevant companies etc.


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## Sdajii (19 September 2020)

Junior said:


> Hi Sdajii, you talk about Sweden a lot.  The latest economic data shows a 8.3% contraction in their economy for the June quarter, by far the biggest downturn since GDP records began 40 years ago.  Is there evidence that their approach has protected their economy, jobs etc.?  Otherwise they have taken a double hit, an economic hit, and high death rate.
> 
> Furthermore, if you're going to accept living with the virus, you need to lock away all your elderly from the rest of society.  And those elderly who aren't locked away, will be stuck at home and living in fear of contracting teh virus anyway.  It's a massive price to pay, so you'd want to see a very strong case that it's worthwhile from an economic and quality of life perspective.
> 
> Aside from the pain we are going through in Melbourne, which will end soon, I'm looking at how the rest of Australia (and New Zealand) are functioning, and it seems like a far better outcome thus far, compared with the likes of Sweden or the US.




You're applying a false equivalency. The economic harm was not caused by deaths. The economic harm was caused by the global economic situation. It is a completely false narrative that the economic harm is caused by the amount of people getting infected by this virus. Again I remind you of the previous country I was in (which I just use as an example because it was the most recent country I was in, but there are many others demonstrating the same concept) which has had extremely low virus infections/deaths and extreme economic harm. The economic harm is being caused because of the global situation, and this would affect Thailand with or without high virus numbers or lockdowns etc (as it happens, the have very low virus numbers with only a single death in more than the last 100 days and only about half a dozen infections). Sweden was also going to have its economic problems regardless of whether or not it had a virus issue. Like Thailand (and countless countries around the world), even if they magically had 100% immunity from the virus within their own borders, the economic issue would still hit them.

Remember 2008? That wasn't caused by a virus, but when the world had major economic issues, almost all countries suffered, and most significantly, but not all to the same extent; some more than others. Here we have the same concept, but we have some people pushing a false narrative about it being purely/primarily about the virus itself, and then many people are propagating the myth because they genuinely believe it despite how little sense it makes.

Looking at Sweden, like everywhere else in the world, most of people people who died while infected with the virus would have died this year anyway. Most were elderly/disabled/late stage cancer/etc. These deaths don't hurt the economy, they don't change anything, those people were going to die with or without the virus, we've simply changed the label on their death certificate. Economically speaking, even in Sweden, the actual deaths caused by the virus which wouldn't have occurred otherwise is absolutely trivial, negligible, and absolutely positively not the cause of the economic issues.

Elderly people in retirement homes are already locked away. That's what old folks' homes are. People don't want their elderly parents at home with them so they send them to live out their senescence away from society. It's a cruel, cold world, and this is how it's done in the west. Last year, the year before, and for many years before that, those people sat in those homes, generally with little more than a few token visits, sometimes not even that, until they died. The happiness, sentimental value of life, philosophical concepts etc are a separate issue (I'm not debating their level of importance or trying to dismiss them, just saying they're economically not relevant), and we are lying or believing a lie if we think this is the cause of the economic problem rather than literally shutting down businesses and preventing the majority of normal people from doing normal things.

The US is so obviously a unique case with its internal political and social issues at the moment, it's just not applicable to the rest of the world. Australia is playing extreme economic smoke and mirror games to disguise the extreme damage being done. It's much like me losing my job and having massive gambling debts but taking out huge credit card debts and selling all the family treasures to maintain the illusion that things are going okay. That illusion won't last long, and it's incredibly obvious, which makes it disturbing that so many people can't see it. You can't just shut down every shop in Melbourne which doesn't sell food, destroy countless businesses, prevent people from being able to go more than 5km from their own homes or even being out for more than an hour per day, without doing some extreme economic damage.


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## satanoperca (21 September 2020)

By the lack of interactions on this thread, it seems the virus has just disappeared?


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## Chronos-Plutus (21 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> By the lack of interactions on this thread, it seems the virus has just disappeared?




By the lack of political intelligence in Australia; it seems that the virus driven draconian restrictions don't matter because apparently some businesses are screaming to high heaven (Wizard Of Oz) that they can't find people to work. Now Scomo and Josh seem to think that it must be true and that we can just leave the draconian restrictions in place, trim the social support, and that the economy will just magically bounce back because a few businesses, that nobody knows who they are, have complained to the government that they can't find workers.

You would think that an intelligent government would just help advertise on behalf of these businesses if they were struggling to find workers; rather than take their word as concrete widespread indicative economic analysis to base government economic policy on, which impacts the entire population of the nation.


----------



## satanoperca (21 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> By the lack of political intelligence in Australia; it seems that the virus driven draconian restrictions don't matter because apparently some businesses are screaming to high heaven (Wizard Of Oz) that they can't find people to work. Now Scomo and Josh seem to think that it must be true and that we can just leave the draconian restrictions in place, trim the social support, and that the economy will just magically bounce back because a few businesses, that nobody knows who they are, have complained to the government that they can't find workers.
> 
> You would think that an intelligent government would just help advertise on behalf of these businesses if they were struggling to find workers; rather than take their word as concrete widespread indicative economic analysis to base government economic policy on, which impacts the entire population of the nation.




I might be on the wrong tangent with your comments above, so do apologise.

I know of several businesses that are looking to employ at the moment, low skilled work and are finding it difficult.

The main reason is many are on either jobkeeper or jobseeker, so why work 40hours a week for a little bit more, when you can do nothing.

I also was helping a mate pack up his business on the weekend, cleaning out the leased premises to be returned to the landlords, he has 15 on jobkeeper, after reaching out to the slack arses, 9 flatly told him to get stuffed, if was not their normal work activities, 6 said they would come and help, 3 turned up on the day.

So how I see if, the 3 that turned up, did 2 days work and have been paid 5months. 

Well, the short of it, is 12 people will now be on jobseeker, as my mate is no longer willing to support them, if they cannot get of their fat lazy arses to help and employer out that has employed them for many years.

The quicker, jobseeker is reduced (not back to the dole amount, but to a level that incentivizes people to want to work) and jobkeeper is removed completely.


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## Chronos-Plutus (21 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> I might be on the wrong tangent with your comments above, so do apologise.
> 
> I know of several businesses that are looking to employ at the moment, low skilled work and are finding it difficult.
> 
> ...




That is a different story; and these people who are lazy and don't want to work should be financially punished. In saying this; many people have been made redundant, and there are just not enough jobs on seek.

I was made redundant due to COVID in March; I am qualified to work in engineering and maintenance, banking and finance, hotels and tourism, and libraries; and I can say that there are just not enough jobs out there.


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## Chronos-Plutus (21 September 2020)

I was listening to  *Anne Ruston* today and the impression that I got from her superficial and shallow responses was that the complexity of her portfolio under these circumstances is just beyond her to understand and comprehend.


satanoperca said:


> I might be on the wrong tangent with your comments above, so do apologise.
> 
> I know of several businesses that are looking to employ at the moment, low skilled work and are finding it difficult.
> 
> ...




So basically either lift all the draconian business and civil restrictions so that the economy can recover and people can get back to work; or keep the draconian business and civil restrictions in place with the full social support of JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

I wasn't too impressed with Anne Ruston's responses today; she came across as a senior minister not across the detail of her portfolio.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Well, the short of it, is 12 people will now be on jobseeker, as my mate is no longer willing to support them, if they cannot get of their fat lazy arses to help and employer out that has employed them for many years.



Not uncommon in my experience.

I've always said the same about employing people. Skills really aren't that important so long as they've got any formal qualifications that the law says they must have. You can train for skills and at most it's just time and money. 

Attitude though, well you can't change that really so that's the thing you need to get right. Natural talent and interest too - someone either has it or they don't but skills as such can always be learned.


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## satanoperca (22 September 2020)

*These changes will get people working again, cannot see wage growth going anywhere.*


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## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> View attachment 112074
> 
> *These changes will get people working again, cannot see wage growth going anywhere.*




I would say the outcome will look more like this if they trim the JobKeeper and JobSeeker:
*As Crime Soars, Furious NYers Paint Giant "F**k Cuomo And De Blasio" Mural On Brooklyn Street*




__





						Zerohedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




If the government is going to stop people making a living legally then they will turn to crime if the welfare support isn't enough for them to survive or support their families. Essentially the government is just ensuring that they won't get re-elected and at the same time creating more problems for everyone.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> View attachment 112074
> 
> *These changes will get people working again, cannot see wage growth going anywhere.*




Wage growth hasn't been going anywhere for a long time anyway. The problem I see is that the government thinks that they can keep the draconian business and civil restrictions while trimming the JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

We can expect more crime, more civil unrest and more protest in the coming months; when we already have a stretched police force trying enforce the draconian business and civil restrictions.

*It is pretty simple really; if the JobKeeper and JobSeeker are to be trimmed, then the draconian business and civil restrictions need to be lifted.*

It defies basic economics to think that the economy can function properly and jobs will come back when you're restricting people from going about their business; like you can only have X people at a function/event, every second table needs to be vacant in your restaurant, people need to work from home, people can't travel and move freely.

Anyway; large corporations are trimming their work forces. Didn't the NRL announce today that they are axing 25% of their workforce? Haven't QANTAS axed like 50% of their workforce?

Now the stock market looks like it is tanking again, wiping out trillions of dollars of private wealth, and the government thinks cutting income taxes right now is going to stimulate the economy when the economy can't function properly anyway due to the draconian business and civil restrictions and so many people are out of work.

*So I am not sure how all this fits in with the government's economic reality.*


----------



## Junior (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Wage growth hasn't been going anywhere for a long time anyway. The problem I see is that the government thinks that they can keep the draconian business and civil restrictions while trimming the JobKeeper and JobSeeker.
> 
> We can expect more crime, more civil unrest and more protest in the coming months; when we already have a stretched police force trying enforce the draconian business and civil restrictions.
> 
> ...




Victoria will be fully operating again within weeks, aside from a handful of sectors which cannot 'socially distance' effectively, like events.  

I would also expect state borders will largely come down by Christmas and we should see BIG interstate movement.  Families have been kept apart for too long and many will be itching to travel interstate.


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## over9k (22 September 2020)

doubt.jpg


----------



## over9k (22 September 2020)

Furniture sales are also stratospheric. 

I own fedex & ups.


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## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> Victoria will be fully operating again within weeks, aside from a handful of sectors which cannot 'socially distance' effectively, like events.
> 
> I would also expect state borders will largely come down by Christmas and we should see BIG interstate movement.  Families have been kept apart for too long and many will be itching to travel interstate.





Well let's hope so. I would have thought that it would be prudent to first see Victoria operating again and at least have a major lifting of the majority of business and civil restrictions; along with a sustained reduction in COVID cases, before trimming the JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

I see this move to trim the JobKeeper and JobSeeker now as a major unnecessary gamble that is premature and which is likely to cause more problems for everyone.


----------



## Junior (22 September 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're applying a false equivalency. The economic harm was not caused by deaths. The economic harm was caused by the global economic situation. It is a completely false narrative that the economic harm is caused by the amount of people getting infected by this virus. Again I remind you of the previous country I was in (which I just use as an example because it was the most recent country I was in, but there are many others demonstrating the same concept) which has had extremely low virus infections/deaths and extreme economic harm. The economic harm is being caused because of the global situation, and this would affect Thailand with or without high virus numbers or lockdowns etc (as it happens, the have very low virus numbers with only a single death in more than the last 100 days and only about half a dozen infections). Sweden was also going to have its economic problems regardless of whether or not it had a virus issue. Like Thailand (and countless countries around the world), even if they magically had 100% immunity from the virus within their own borders, the economic issue would still hit them.




The economic harm is caused indirectly by this virus, and associated illness and death.  The economy relies on consumer confidence and free movement of people, the virus has interfered with that.

Even with no restrictions imposed by Government, restricted movement and activity will occur.  

People do not want to catch a new virus, which is 3 times deadlier than the common flu, far more contagious, has no vaccine and where there is no evidence as to the long term implications of the contracting the illness.  

They will not want to catch a virus, which means if they visit their elderly parents they might kill them or make them very sick.  As has been pointed out, hospitals and aged care facilities have staff and visitors flowing in and out every day.  You can't just lock up the elderly, and have the virus exclusively circulate amongst young and healthy people.  It will infiltrate those facilities one way or another.

Likewise with any business, if they were to operate as normal and ignore the virus, they open themselves up to being liable for not keeping staff or customers safe.  Without restrictions, people will not want to congregate in groups or crowds if this virus is circulating in the community.  And Business will not want to be seen to be facilitating spread of the virus.

My point is, there is massive economic damage, regardless of Government-imposed restrictions.  This thing isn't just an overblown figment of our collective imagination which can be ignored, it is real.

I'm not commenting on Australia's strategy or the severity of the restrictions imposed in Melbourne.  I don't agree with curfews and the extent to which businesses have been closed down.  I'm just pointing out, that there is every chance that we'll look back in a year or two and find that Australia's strategy worked out OK, compared with the likes of the UK and the US.  In any case, it's too soon to definitely determine who handled it best.


----------



## over9k (22 September 2020)

Just look at the U.S - even if things reopen legally, people aren't just going back to their previous habits. Movie cinemas, bars, restaurants, sports stadiums etc etc etc are all ghost towns. 

And then there's europe getting massacred all over again now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> Even with no restrictions imposed by Government, restricted movement and activity will occur.



I've definitely got some doubts that people will be keen to travel further than they can quickly return home from given the precedent of people being literally locked out of their own state or country for extended periods.

Someone who lives in WA for example and goes to Sydney is taking a known and uninsurable risk of being stuck in NSW, potentially for months.

In contrast if someone in Melbourne drives to Adelaide, emphasis there on the word "drives", and pays close attention to the news well then they should be able to get back across the border in time if things turn bad again. Anyone relying on public transport (especially air or sea travel) or going further than they could realistically drive in a day is taking a risk of ending up stuck.

It's going to be a problem for the state governments I'm thinking. If the states want tourists from other states well then they all need to convince the masses that there's no risk of ending up stuck. In the meantime, I can see Victorians getting out and about but mostly within Victoria and same for the rest.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've definitely got some doubts that people will be keen to travel further than they can quickly return home from given the precedent of people being literally locked out of their own state or country for extended periods.
> 
> Someone who lives in WA for example and goes to Sydney is taking a known and uninsurable risk of being stuck in NSW, potentially for months.
> 
> ...





I think the Federal and State governments should get the Ghan and Indian Pacific trains up and running again: 








						Journey Beyond Rail - The Ghan, Indian Pacific & Great Southern
					

A legendary past, a new era of experience. Traversing far and wide across the country, The Ghan and Indian Pacific are icons of Australia.



					journeybeyondrail.com.au


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

There are serious problems in Australia when we have 5 armed and aggressive police officers threatening 2 elderly ladies sitting on a park bench, in Melbourne, who have really done nothing wrong. How is the economy suppose to function properly when there are these sort of draconian civil restrictions?

Just to really call a spade a spade; obviously these Grandmas don't share the absurd and disconnected concerns of some people about the virus.


----------



## Junior (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> There are serious problems in Australia when we have 5 armed and aggressive police officers threatening 2 elderly ladies sitting on a park bench, in Melbourne, who have really done nothing wrong. How is the economy suppose to function properly when there are these sort of draconian civil restrictions?
> 
> Just to really call a spade a spade; obviously these Grandmas don't share the absurd and disconnected concerns of some people about the virus.
> 
> View attachment 112114




I agree...and I'm concerned about the growing police numbers and police powers, and wondering when we go back to 'normal', how much of this power will not revert back to pre-COVID levels.

In Australia, in general, we have a growing and increasingly draconian police presence, this year has really accelerated that trajectory.  

The media will blame Andrews in Victoria of course, but memories are so short.  At the most recent Victorian election, Matthew Guy's key promise was to be "tough on crime", by expanding police presence and sending more people to prison, for longer.  Andrews was consistently accused of being 'soft on crime'.  Now look at the narrative ;(


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> I agree...and I'm concerned about the growing police numbers and police powers, and wondering when we go back to 'normal', how much of this power will not revert back to pre-COVID levels.
> 
> In Australia, in general, we have a growing and increasingly draconian police presence, this year has really accelerated that trajectory.
> 
> The media will blame Andrews in Victoria of course, but memories are so short.  At the most recent Victorian election, Matthew Guy's key promise was to be "tough on crime", by expanding police presence and sending more people to prison, for longer.  Andrews was consistently accused of being 'soft on crime'.  Now look at the narrative ;(




Really it is Andrews and his ministry who makes the final decision; himself and the party will be judged by the electorate at the next election.

*The police are just following orders.*

What may eventuate is Labor losing governance in Victoria and Queensland, and the Coalition losing governance Federally. Not much political capital to waste under these conditions and circumstances.

A political middle road, to deal with COVID, for Premiers is WA and NSW; although I think Mark (WA) needs to lighten up domestically.

Andrews could have just requested that the people of Victoria be extra careful; only go out when needed, make sure to distance, wash hands, and so on. The vast majority of Victorians would have done the right thing and the COVID cases would have reduced eventually; instead he went full authoritarian/totalitarian.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> I agree...and I'm concerned about the growing police numbers and police powers, and wondering when we go back to 'normal', how much of this power will not revert back to pre-COVID levels.
> 
> In Australia, in general, we have a growing and increasingly draconian police presence, this year has really accelerated that trajectory.
> 
> The media will blame Andrews in Victoria of course, but memories are so short.  At the most recent Victorian election, Matthew Guy's key promise was to be "tough on crime", by expanding police presence and sending more people to prison, for longer.  Andrews was consistently accused of being 'soft on crime'.  Now look at the narrative ;(




Don't get me wrong; I think the *international borders should be lock-tight until we see the end of the virus with a vaccine or it burns out*. Domestically though we need to start being open-minded to lifting business and civil restrictions. Get a national COVID tracking entity established.

Time to move forward. At least tourism and business can do business again domestically.

*Unfortunately I think that the Australians abroad shouldn't be allowed to come back home; they were warned just like SMART TRAVELER ADVICE FROM DFAT. They were told to come back home and they didn't; there should be no more international flights except for freight on goods of national importance.*


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Andrews could have just requested that the people of Victoria be extra careful; only go out when needed, make sure to distance, wash hands, and so on. The vast majority of Victorians would have done the right thing



In principle agreed totally.

In practice there's an abundance of reports that people didn't do the right thing. That might only be a minority but it only needs a few and then there's an outbreak.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In principle agreed totally.
> 
> In practice there's an abundance of reports that people didn't do the right thing. That might only be a minority but it only needs a few and then there's an outbreak.




Well he always could have claimed that he tried to advise his people of the right course of action, if the COVID cases never reduced. We are humans not robots. Economic destruction isn't really a justification for authoritarianism and totalitarianism based on weak data of a biological threat.

The statistical evidence based threat of current COVID cases in Victoria at the moment, in-fact across the nation, is weak as it is; health professional advisors are just winging it all on a prayer.

*Does the statistical evidence in Australia (ENSURING INTERNATIONAL BORDERS ARE LOCK-TIGHT) so far justify absolute authoritarianism and totalitarianism for draconian business and civil restrictions across the nation?*

International borders closed and domestic borders open with tracking and tracing. That is the balance, in my opinion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Unfortunately I think that the Australians abroad shouldn't be allowed to come back home; they were warned just like SMART TRAVELER ADVICE FROM DFAT. They were told to come back home and they didn't; there should be no more international flights except for freight on goods of national importance.



As a concept agreed but in practice plenty have been trying to get back right since the start of the whole thing and are still unable to do so.

The trouble with government issuing directions is that they forgot to direct the airlines to make it possible thus making the government's directions somewhat pointless and a classic case of good intentions but poor implementation. 

That's the biggest problem I see going forward. Everyone who ever traveled anywhere before this wouldn't have assumed they'd be literally locked out of their own state or even country for no reason other than politics. Quarantining people upon return isn't rocket science after all, the only reason to not do it is politics. Now that the risk of being a victim of politics is known to everyone, it'll make at least some people more wary of travel in general I think. 

Meanwhile we just let a billionaire in from the UK, of all places, to judge a reality TV show.  If that doesn't make the fundamental problems with all this clear to everyone then nothing will. A reality TV show, of all things - about as unimportant a reason to travel as there could possibly be, especially so given there'd be no shortage of people already in the country who'd be capable of doing the job so there's zero excuse for that one.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Plenty have been trying to get back right since the start of the whole thing and are still unable to do so.
> 
> The trouble with government issuing directions is that they forgot to direct the airlines to make it possible thus making the government's directions somewhat pointless and a classic case of good intentions but poor implementation.
> 
> ...




*International borders closed and domestic borders open with tracking and tracing. That is the balance in my opinion.*


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> International borders closed and domestic borders open with tracking and tracing. That is the balance in my opinion.



Does Australia have no obligation to its citizens whatsoever?









						'The airline bumped us': One stranded Aussie family never made it home, but their pets did
					

An Australian family stranded in London have expressed frustration their pet dog and cat have already arrived in Sydney while they are still stuck overseas.




					www.abc.net.au
				




A classic case where money buys someone a way in.

Economically, well it doesn't send a good message for the average run of the mill traveler going forward - go literally anywhere and you could well find yourself stuck and effectively abandoned. That won't encourage travel. 

If someone went overseas after the pandemic started then I agree with you but if they were already here and have no means of returning then the government's inability to run quarantine facilities needs to be rectified in my view. Get someone competent and put them in charge.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Does Australia have no obligation to its citizens whatsoever?
> 
> The country will pay a price for that economically going forward I expect since it sends a worrying message.
> 
> ...




The obligation was to advise our Australian citizens to immediately come home. The advice was ignored.

You tell someone to not jump off a bridge and they do; it is not your fault.

We are already paying for this virus.* International borders shut and domestic borders open.*


----------



## Junior (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Andrews could have just requested that the people of Victoria be extra careful; only go out when needed, make sure to distance, wash hands, and so on. The vast majority of Victorians would have done the right thing and the COVID cases would have reduced eventually; instead he went full authoritarian/totalitarian.




A simple request to do the right thing would have been nice, but unfortunately the Vic government's hand was forced when every other state decided to lock Victoria out. We're left with no choice but to go full virus elimination to bring us back in line with the rest of the country.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> A simple request to do the right thing would have been nice, but unfortunately the Vic government's hand was forced when every other state decided to lock Victoria out. We're left with no choice but to go full virus elimination to bring us back in line with the rest of the country.




I disagree; but this is where we should probably leave it, because Victoria are under the control of people that think they know best.

Good chat though; to explore the stupidity of Dan and his team, in my opinion. I guess we find out at the next election.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> A simple request to do the right thing would have been nice, but unfortunately the Vic government's hand was forced when every other state decided to lock Victoria out. We're left with no choice but to go full virus elimination to bring us back in line with the rest of the country.




No you don't have to go full crazy. If Victoria had of done the proper job from the start; they would not have been in this position.

I know personally in NSW that from the start we were serious about this in a reasonably manner.

As I said; I think we block all international travel and *open up domestic movement with contact tracing.*


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> The obligation was to advise our Australian citizens to immediately come home. The advice was ignored.
> 
> You tell someone to not jump off a bridge and they do; it is not your fault.



The point is how, exactly, were they to get home?

Australia is an island and 99%+ of all overseas travelers are reliant on a commercially operated aircraft or ship in order to travel from wherever they are back to Australia. It's not like somewhere in Europe where renting or even buying a car would be an option to get home if all else fails.

There's the problem. Being told to come home is nothing more than words if there's no means to actually do so as has been the case for many. Buying a ticket for a plane that ends up not flying doesn't get you anywhere.

Blaming the unemployed for being out of work at the moment and blaming businesses in Victoria for going broke would be in the same category. True, they're out of work or broke but there's stuff all they can do to avoid it so rather harsh to blame them for a situation that's outside of their control.

Most of those stuck overseas would have come home months ago if they could get here just as businesses would be open if the law allowed them to.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The point is how, exactly, were they to get home?
> 
> Australia is an island and 99%+ of all overseas travelers are reliant on a commercially operated aircraft or ship in order to travel from wherever they are back to Australia.
> 
> ...




They had months to get home with plenty of room on flights at a reasonable cost. I worked on the tarmac in aviation for years.

If the biosecurity threat is so grave; then close the international border.

*BUT VICTORIA DIDN'T, THEY STILL ALLOWED FLIGHTS IN AND THEY STILL ARE DOING IT NOW.

IDIOTS RUNNING THE STATES AND COUNTRY THAT HAVE BEEN VOTED IN BY PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN CONNED.*


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> They had months to get home with plenty of room on flights at a reasonable cost.



Very few are in practice going to defy both the airline and government in order to force their way onto such a flight given they can't board it legally. Even if they did, odds are the Captain won't be flying that plane anywhere with that passenger onboard.

With governments capping the number of arrivals and airlines routinely bumping economy and even business class customers off flights in order to preference First Class, actually getting home is not an option for many and hasn't been since the pandemic commenced. Hence the stories from those who've booked multiple times, turned up at the airport and each time they're refused boarding.

Even if those stranded buy First Class tickets, that still only works so long as not many others try doing the same. It doesn't get around the cap on total numbers, it just bumps someone else out of economy or business but it doesn't add to the total.

Everything to do with aviation's a mess at the moment indeed there's a lack of flying to the point that for the airlines it's impossible to keep all their pilots accredited flying legitimate flights even if they do optimally rotate them around. Hence airlines doing sight seeing trips and so on. Depart and arrive at the same airport but it keeps the pilots' hours up and if someone's willing to pay to be on the flight looking at scenery well that beats flying empty planes. 

How long the airlines can survive financially I don't know but the clock's ticking.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Very few are in practice going to defy both the airline and government in order to force their way onto such a flight. Even if they did, odds are the Captain won't be flying that plane anywhere with that passenger onboard.
> 
> With governments capping the number of arrivals and airlines routinely bumping economy and even business class customers off flights actually getting home is not an option for many and hasn't been since the pandemic commenced.




Aussies had 3 months to get home!

Fine: I have an intricate knowledge of commercial aviation; based on  ~10 years of work experience in aviation engineering; and we disagree.

I don't think I need to say anymore. But we can keep going if you like to find more depth and to lock in more value for me.


----------



## Knobby22 (22 September 2020)

Junior said:


> Victoria will be fully operating again within weeks, aside from a handful of sectors which cannot 'socially distance' effectively, like events.
> 
> I would also expect state borders will largely come down by Christmas and we should see BIG interstate movement.  Families have been kept apart for too long and many will be itching to travel interstate.




True, and compare this to the UK, now pressure for major lockdowns.
Internationally, the Victorian action is being heavily scrutinised by epidemiologists worldwide.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Aussies had 3 months to get home!
> 
> Fine: I have an intricate knowledge of commercial aviation; based on ~10 years of work experience in aviation engineering; and we disagree.



No disrespect (I mean that genuinely  ) but how many times in your 10 years were airlines bumping Economy Class passengers off flights because someone had bought a First Class ticket and will be occupying a First Class seat?

I'll take a good guess that you never saw it because under normal circumstances pre-pandemic that just didn't happen.

How the airlines are making money whilst flying near empty planes and leaving most passengers on the ground is another question but an important one since ultimately there must be a limit to their financial resources. At some point they need paying customers in those seats rather than leaving them at the airport.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> No disrespect (I mean that genuinely  ) but how many times in your 10 years were airlines bumping Economy Class passengers off flights because someone had bought a First Class ticket and will be occupying a First Class seat?
> 
> I'll take a good guess that you never saw it because under normal circumstances pre-pandemic that just didn't happen.
> 
> How the airlines are making money whilst flying near empty planes and leaving most passengers on the ground is another question but an important one since ultimately there must be a limit to their financial resources. At some point they need paying customers in those seats.




Well I have travelled all the classes. Never bought or really paid for any flights: just paid for it in blood, sweat and tears to make sure you people got to you destination. Working all through the night; rain, hail or shine, to make sure you little ones got your destination safely; that's what I remember.

Anyway it has been a decade since then. Can't remember how many times I lost blood, how many times I was sweating;  don't know about the tears but it came close to getting those planes out on time.

*I lost a lot of blood and sweat!*


----------



## satanoperca (22 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> Well I have travelled all the classes. Never bought or really paid for any flights: just paid for it in blood, sweat and tears to make sure you people got to you destination. Working all through the night; rain, hail or shine, to make sure you little ones got your destination safely; that's what I remember.
> 
> Anyway it has been a decade since then.




Chronos, I know you are angry, but being condescending and almost childish doesn't help with discussion, depart or provide strength to you beliefs on this subject matter.

Take a breather and then contribute with sensible discussion. Or this little one will come and break your bones (sic).


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Chronos, I know you are angry, but being condescending and almost childish doesn't help with discussion, depart or provide strength to you beliefs on this subject matter.
> 
> Take a breather and then contribute with sensible discussion. Or this little one will come and break your bones (sic).




I am not complaining; I had cuts on my hands every week from the amount of work I did on the QANTAS planes. Covered in fuel and hydraulic fluid, engine oil.

You guys do what I have done; then I will be happy to work for you.

You people have no idea about work mate.


----------



## satanoperca (22 September 2020)

Please, I worked until 3.30am last night and am still working to pay my staff (who often get paid before me, but without them i ??), who I respect for the commitment and dedication.

Hard times allow some to grow and become better people.

I should say, I never complain, I have a roof over my head, food on the table and friends & family that provide love.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Please, I worked until 3.30am last night and am still working to pay my staff (who often get paid before me, but without them i ??), who I respect for the commitment and dedication.
> 
> Hard times allow some to grow and become better people.




Haha; I have worked through the night for the majority of my working life; ~20 years.

*Let me watch you grow and everyone else!

Make sure your productivity is the same as what I have delivered.*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

*Basically lazy people; even the business owners in this country and the politicians.*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Please, I worked until 3.30am last night and am still working to pay my staff (who often get paid before me, but without them i ??), who I respect for the commitment and dedication.
> 
> Hard times allow some to grow and become better people.
> 
> I should say, I never complain, I have a roof over my head, food on the table and friends & family that provide love.




I don't know: even the military and police sleep during the night when they get paid.

Perhaps it would be less than 1% of the many thousands of night shifts that I closed my eyes for less than a few hours; with nothing but coffee.

*So who the F*** are you people to tell me!*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (22 September 2020)

Now the perception is that there are smarter people than me; so I am free to do as please; because somebody else will think of what I have thought and developed.

Thank you and goodbye; just the exit I needed.


----------



## satanoperca (22 September 2020)

A little bit angry mate.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> You people have no idea about work mate.



I'll simply say that I've been there, done that with working 7 days a week, long shifts, on call 24 hours a day and all that. No doubt plenty of others have done so too in various industries which are essential to the general community. If circumstances require that I do that again then I'll do so sure, no problem. 

That doesn't preclude having a sensible and polite discussion even if we disagree on the points raised.

There's no certainty as to how all this ends, we're all observing and speculating to some extent, since there's no relevant precedent for current circumstances.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'll simply say that I've been there, done that with working 7 days a week, long shifts, on call 24 hours a day and all that. No doubt plenty of others have done so too in various industries which are essential to the general community. If circumstances require that I do that again then I'll do so sure, no problem.
> 
> That doesn't preclude having a sensible and polite discussion even if we disagree on the points raised.
> 
> There's no certainty as to how all this ends, we're all observing and speculating to some extent, since there's no relevant precedent for current circumstances.




*I am sorry to all; but I would love to see you attempt the work that I endured over ~20 years: WITHOUT CHEATING!

I don't come from a privileged  family.*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 September 2020)

satanoperca said:


> A little bit angry mate.




And why shouldn't I be irritated when everyday, on just about every mainstream tv station, I have to watch these disgraceful politicians being paid hundreds of thousands a dollars a year to be incompetent and destroy the lives of the very people that they represent. Politicians that really haven't worked a hard day in their life.

I have said all I need to say on this topic.


----------



## basilio (23 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's no certainty as to how all this ends, we're all observing and speculating to some extent, since there's no relevant precedent for current circumstances.




There is no* detailed * certainty about how this could all end.
But if a car goes over a cliff we know what the general picture looks like.

Is this an appropriate metaphor ? I would suggest that this is the first time in history that a world as technologically integrated and vulnerable has been exposed to a pandemic that still out of control and undermining more and more elements of  the thousands of wheels that keep the current world turning.

We have already become acutely aware of supply lines of scores of essential products.

Let's hope we can get on top of this collectively.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Cheers to all the people working their butts off to keep themselves, their businesses and the wheels still turning.  
Many of us arn't facing that challenge and it is too easy to forget that the  industrial world we see doesn't just continue by magic.


----------



## Belli (23 September 2020)

Don't worry about the short term.  Be concerned about the long-term.  This could cost heaps.





__





						Parkinsonism as a Third Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic? - IOS Press
					

Since the initial reports of COVID-19 in December 2019, the world has been gripped by the disastrous acute respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are an ever-increasing number of reports of neurological symptoms in patients, from s




					content.iospress.com


----------



## over9k (23 September 2020)

Here's a depressing reality: 

Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC. 



Anyone care to guess why?


----------



## cutz (23 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Here's a depressing reality:
> 
> Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.
> 
> ...




Hey mate, why is that depressing ?


----------



## over9k (23 September 2020)

Coronavirus lethality. Old(er) people dying and their estates (homes) being sold. 

Doesn't account for all of the data obviously, but it's reality.


----------



## cutz (23 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Coronavirus lethality. Old(er) people dying and their estates (homes) being sold.
> 
> Doesn't account for all of the data obviously, but it's reality.




Hmmm

Not sure I agree with you there, generally older established homes on larger blocks are more desirable to those that can afford them, demand also pumped up by developers looking at carving up blocks, I see it all the time, really annoys me but not much I can do about it.

The disparity you're seeing could be due to the drop in demand on new builds in the outer suburbs, these are the most vulnerable of areas, where new migrants tend to reside.

Net immigration is on the slide...


----------



## over9k (23 September 2020)

Oh no doubt. The borders are closed. But if an old fart gets bumped off, there's going to be a house to sell, and it's really only old people that this thing is actually lethal for.

The U.S is at 200,000 and counting I believe.


----------



## qldfrog (23 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh no doubt. The borders are closed. But if an old fart gets bumped off, there's going to be a house to sell, and it's really only old people that this thing is actually lethal for.
> 
> The U.S is at 200,000 and counting I believe.



most of them are male and outlived by the (fitter generally) wives so hardly any change in term of newly deceased estates.sorry to disagree


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 September 2020)

over9k said:


> Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.
> 
> 
> 
> Anyone care to guess why?



My assumption is there's a degree of forced sales in that. 

However many due to being dead and the rest because they can't pay the mortgage. Both are forced sellers, perhaps not technically by law but in practice, and will take the highest offer even if it's not as much as they really wanted. They're not in a position to wait for however many years etc.

Just my assumption there.


----------



## satanoperca (23 September 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am not complaining; I had cuts on my hands every week from the amount of work I did on the QANTAS planes. Covered in fuel and hydraulic fluid, engine oil.
> 
> You guys do what I have done; then I will be happy to work for you.
> 
> You people have no idea about work mate.





over9k said:


> Here's a depressing reality:
> 
> Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.
> 
> ...




Margin calls, loans etc

People are going broke, this is not a positive sign, but rather a negative one


----------



## cutz (23 September 2020)

There is also evidence here of an increase in excessive alcohol consumption due to I presume economic and/or other pressures.

Not being judgmental, just find it rather sad.


----------



## satanoperca (23 September 2020)

cutz said:


> There is also evidence here of an increase in excessive alcohol consumption due to I presume economic and/or other pressures.
> 
> Not being judgmental, just find it rather sad.



Maybe not sad, just people drowning their sorrows as they have no or very little control of the situation in Melbourne, as Chairman Dan is in control and no pollie in Vic will accept any responsibility for the mishandling of the quarantine.

What is very sad is it take approx 45days to create a habit and in this case, alcoholism.


----------



## over9k (23 September 2020)

cutz said:


> There is also evidence here of an increase in excessive alcohol consumption due to I presume economic and/or other pressures.
> 
> Not being judgmental, just find it rather sad.



I'd read low pub numbers but high bottleshop numbers. So the two would cancel each other out perhaps?


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 September 2020)

over9k said:


> I'd read low pub numbers but high bottleshop numbers. So the two would cancel each other out perhaps?



I don't know the current figures but under normal circumstances bottle shops is where a large portion of alcohol is sold, the rest mostly pubs and restaurants as well as things like festivals, a tiny minority at nightclubs and other after-midnight venues.

It would only need a fairly small % increase in bottle shop sales to offset a large decline in the other outlets.

On the other side, well it has been reported that some breweries have dumped large quantities of beer earlier in the pandemic. Tanker loads of it were sent straight to sewage works where it was added later in the process and ultimately turned into electricity (alcohol + sewage sludge > CH4 > internal combustion generating set > electricity) since that was the only use for it that had any value at all given its short shelf life.

The sewage works at Glenelg (Adelaide) was going through about 900 litres of beer an hour, 24 hours per day, a while ago getting rid of it. Was delivered to site in tankers not via the sewer pipes.


----------



## over9k (25 September 2020)

I keep saying that a lot of this stuff is going to be permanent. Announcements like this are just _constant. _


----------



## sptrawler (26 September 2020)

If Trump wins the election I think there will be a huge resurgence in domestic manufacturing, and as smurf has said a massive unwinding of globalisation, which started with good intentions but has run its course.
The virus has probably been the catalyst needed to bring the issue to a head.
If Trump loses, well it will be an interesting future for Australia IMO, how Australia will stop China buying us will be interesting.
Time will tell but interesting times ahead, in the next 6 months. 😂


----------



## over9k (26 September 2020)

Globalisation was already ending before trump even took office. He's just accelerated it.











https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BclcpfVn2rg&t=2715s&ab_channel=KernEDC


----------



## Knobby22 (26 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> If Trump wins the election I think there will be a huge resurgence in domestic manufacturing, and as smurf has said a massive unwinding of globalisation, which started with good intentions but has run its course.
> The virus has probably been the catalyst needed to bring the issue to a head.
> If Trump loses, well it will be an interesting future for Australia IMO, how Australia will stop China buying us will be interesting.
> Time will tell but interesting times ahead, in the next 6 months. 😂



I think if Trump wins we are more susceptible to China. Trump is a unilaterast, willing to do deals such as beef to undercut our interests as well as leave us naked against China's might. Fortunately China has reneged on the deals due to Trumps verbal attacks 

It has been a lesson for us and we must (and are now) forming partnerships with other middle powers to resist the bullying. Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, we must act together.


----------



## qldfrog (26 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> I think if Trump wins we are more susceptible to China. Trump is a unilaterast, willing to do deals such as beef to undercut our interests as well as leave us naked against China's might. Fortunately China has reneged on the deals due to Trumps verbal attacks
> 
> It has been a lesson for us and we must (and are now) forming partnerships with other middle powers to resist the bullying. Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, we must act together.



Agree with second part of post, not the first, but that is no surprise.TDS or not, China is not our economic friend.


----------



## Knobby22 (26 September 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Agree with second part of post, not the first, but that is no surprise.TDS or not, China is not our economic friend.



You don't think Trump is a unilateralist?


----------



## qldfrog (26 September 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> You don't think Trump is a unilateralist?



Yes he is, but he will not sell to China for peanuts or beef.Of course,he doesn't care about Australia.
which is great for Americans..


----------



## qldfrog (26 September 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Yes he is, but he will not sell to China for peanuts or beef.Of course,he doesn't care about Australia.
> which is great for Americans..



I mean sell his soul /bargaining chip..not talking trade here


----------



## over9k (26 September 2020)

Trump absolutely bent the canadians over the proverbial with the new nafta. He's about as america-first as it gets. Here's an excellent half-hour video on america's nafta play, i.e what they did to whom and why:



And he had very good reason to do so - canada is not the trading partner of the future:





In fact, mexico actually is:




This becomes especially so when you consider how much cheaper mexico's labour is and the fact that american shale oil, natural gas etc can literally just be plumbed straight across the border from texas to mexico to combine dirt cheap energy with dirt cheap labour:




Trudeau and his left wing lunacy combined with america and canada's left wing loons have also managed to block every single proposed pipeline out of alberta:




The one everyone's probably heard of is the keystone XL but there were plenty of others proposed. The energy east one was going to be a big one and Montreal mayor Denis Coderre appeared to be in a celebratory mood after the cancellation. According to Global News, “The mayor who has been the strongest opponent in Quebec of the pipeline that would have carried Alberta bitumen from Alberta to the Atlantic coast, said he was proud of work done by those who tried to stop it.”

Anyways, this has left the albertans with absolutely nowhere to actually sell their oil except canada and the united states, which is a market already unbelievably saturated by shale oil, which is far higher quality (requires far far less refinement) and therefore a market in which the albertans simply cannot compete.

What makes this even worse is that alberta is the only canadian province that's actually been a net tax payer (and in a BIG way) into the system for years now - all the other states are overwhelmingly dependent on its money and they seem to be doing their level best to kill the only golden goose they have.

All this combines to result in alberta being canada's only overwhelmingly conservative province and there now being a major secession movement within alberta because they are just so sick to death of the rest of the country both living at their expense and stopping them from actually earning a living themselves.

Again, this was all in motion long before trump:



The only thing being allies did is stop the yanks being outright hostile to them. Even then, they were still slapped with the same import tariffs on steel, aluminium etc that everyone else got, which have since been removed.

But the key takeaway here is that trump & lighthizer didn't (and don't) give a **** about canada in the slightest. All all of this did was enable the americans to **** them even more - and they did. NAFTA has basically finished canada - american's longest running/closest ally.

The only thing that matters here is leverage. Thankfully, australia does actually have some of that what with controlling roughly 55% of the world's iron ore supply, and it's about the only leverage this country has over anyone with anything on the entire global stage. Without it, australia is nearly as f***ed as canada is.


----------



## IFocus (26 September 2020)

over9k said:


> The only thing that matters here is leverage. Thankfully, australia does actually have some of that what with controlling roughly 55% of the world's iron ore supply, and it's about the only leverage this country has over anyone with anything on the entire global stage. Without it, australia is nearly as f***ed as canada is.




The problem with iron ore is if war breaks out, we will all be speaking Chinese before you know it.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (27 September 2020)

The waste-to-energy plant that was stolen from me in North Queensland; YES IT WAS ME!:

Want me to keep painting the skeleton


----------



## basilio (27 September 2020)

over9k said:


> The only thing that matters here is leverage. Thankfully, australia does actually have some of that what with controlling roughly 55% of the world's iron ore supply, and it's about the only leverage this country has over anyone with anything on the entire global stage. Without it, australia is nearly as f***ed as canada is.




Indeed  Australia does have  mountains of iron ore .  And to date China is our largest  customer.

So hypothetically consider these scenarios as responses to the current Aust/China tensions.

1) China starts to delay/knock back Australian iron ore shipments as it pours investments into Brazil iron ore and develops its own mines elsewhere in Africa.

2) Australia heroically  follows US policy and decides that Chinas expanding influence in Asia is now politically unacceptable and gives China and the iron ore industry 6 months notice that all iron ore exports to China will cease









						China eyes African prospects to iron out trade tension with Australia
					

Investing in largely untapped iron ore sources in Africa might be Beijing’s answer to diversifying import sources.




					www.lowyinstitute.org
				











						'Ultimately it's not going to work': Economist downplays China's trade threats
					

China's dispute with Australia is so far skirting the biggest trade between the two countries, iron ore. But while some analysts are worried the dispute will extend there, others say China will eventually have to back down.




					www.abc.net.au


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## over9k (27 September 2020)

The major problem the chinese have reference brazil is that brazil's been absolutely wasted by coronavirus. They've been desperate to secure an independent mineral(s) supply for years - hence the "new silk road" or "belt and road" plan and all the unbelievably dodgy **** they've been up to in africa.

The bigger problem they have is geography - they import almost everything they need: All their raw materials, their oil, energy, everything. The whole country is a step along a supply chain, not an end consumer market or the beginning point of it like australia is what with providing the raw materials.

This has worked very well for the past 30 years as the yanks have secured the world's supply lines, most notably the persian gulf and the planet's oil. But with the shale oil revolution (and I don't use that term lightly) making the yanks oil independent, the last thread linking the americans to the wider world has been severed.

As a result, china has to figure out how to secure its own supply of almost everything when almost every single neighbour and distant cousin it has absolutely hates them. Visually, it looks like this:




That skirmish between the indians & the chinese a few weeks ago is just the beginning. Almost every single neighbour china has is capable of cutting off its supply of something critical - oil, iron ore, food, whatever. Geographically, china is _completely _hemmed in. Numbers count for nothing - what good is a 50 million strong standing army if a couple of warships placed in shipping-lane choke points can cut half their food supply off? Or oil?

If the yanks (or almost anyone else) wanted to, they could place china under siege conditions within a week. There is a reason why a 50 million strong chinese army hasn't made everyone in its neighbourhood its bitch:

It _can't. _

But this is only the first half of the disaster. Here's what china's demographics used to look like:




And here's what it now does:




China is the 3rd fastest ageing nation in the world behind japan & south korea. In 50 years' time there will be approximately 500 million fewer chinese in the world.

This matters because not only does china rely on access to the rest of the world for its inputs, but because of that massive baby bust after 1990, it relies on access to the rest of the world's _consumer _markets to sell its stuff as well because after that 30-34 age group, there's nobody left in china to actually sell anything to.

That big spike in the 30-34 age group is responsible for the _entirety _of all the "china's on a massive rise and going to take over the world" carryon we've been hearing for basically the entirety of the 2010's.

Now, this is an economics forum so I don't think I need to give everyone a lesson in demographic economics. As you can see, that rise is a total flash in the pan. It will fade as fast as that spike in population ages out of consumption age, i.e right now.

What is key to understand here is that it is actually the americans, who provide trade security for most of the planet (both export and import) which actually provide everything that make modern china possible. All the yanks need to do is take their aircraft carriers and go home, i.e pull the rug out, and the whole thing falls apart. They don't actually need to actively do anything to annihilate china, all they need to do is stop doing everything they are (were) doing.

When you combine this with the very simple fact america's demographics are so, so much more favourable than china's:




(The average american is now younger than the average chinaman just FYI)

You see it becomes very obvious that it is _america _which is the trading partner of the future, not china. It'd be america even if the yanks didn't pull the rug out from the chinese, but it becomes 100x so when you have a united states that's outright hostile to them. China is almost completely at their mercy, and the yanks are just pulling the rug out & letting the whole thing fall to pieces. Even the democrats are hawkish as hell on the chinese.

The entire country is one massive house of cards. All this nonsense you hear about china taking over the world etc is just that - total nonsense. 

But boy does it get people to click on news articles


----------



## basilio (28 September 2020)

Came across this story on stress testing of US banks.
The Feds want to be confident the Banks won't fall over as COVID continues to undermine the local and international economy. Essentially they want to know how banks would cope if the other side of a big deal falls over.
Sobering story.

The second story makes clear *why* the Feds should be taking such a close look at the stability of the big banks. There is a lot of furious paddling under the water.

*The Fed Announces New Bank Stress Tests: Will Look at What Would Happen if a Major Counterparty Defaulted*




__





						The Fed Announces New Bank Stress Tests: Will Look at What Would Happen if a Major Counterparty Defaulted
					

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 17, 2020 ~ At the time the Fed released the results of its bank stress tests in June, it announced that because



					wallstreetonparade.com
				




*Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed these Wall Street Banks Have Tanked 34 to 48 Percent Year-to-Date. (The Fed Thinks They’re a “Source of Strength”)

*....The safety and soundness of the U.S. financial system requires that banks that are sitting on more than $1 trillion in deposits not be highly-interconnected; not have tens of trillions of dollars in dangerous derivatives; not be holding trillions of dollars off their balance sheet; not be engaging in criminal activity; and are broken up when they show a serial pattern of wrongdoing. Jerome Powell’s Fed has failed to enforce every single one of those common sense rules when it comes to JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. 




__





						Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed these Wall Street Banks Have Tanked 34 to 48 Percent Year-to-Date. (The Fed Thinks They’re a “Source of Strength”)
					

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 24, 2020 ~ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s oft repeated mantra this year – that the behemoth Wall



					wallstreetonparade.com


----------



## over9k (28 September 2020)

Market research telling us nothing we couldn't intuit already: People with home offices have been _more_ productive and people without them have been less productive. 

Who would have thought?


----------



## SirRumpole (1 October 2020)

At last the government seems to be cottoning on to the plight of our manufacturing industry.









						Vaccines, recycling and space tech the focus of new manufacturing plan to grow local industries
					

The Federal Government will pump close to $1.5 billion into Australia's manufacturing sector, outlining plans to shore up local production and close holes in supply chains laid bare by COVID-19.




					www.abc.net.au


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## Smurf1976 (1 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> At last the government seems to be cottoning on to the plight of our manufacturing industry.



We can make it or mine it.

It's factories versus coal mines.

I'll take the former since the latter's ultimately doomed. I'd even happily pay more tax if it's actually being used to build a real future for the country.

To the extent any good comes from this pandemic, it's that it might bring about desperately needed changes that were always going to take some sort of crisis to see done.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 October 2020)

Flight Centre are closing more physical shopfronts.

As with most of this, once they're gone they're gone, they're unlikely to come back. 









						Flight Centre to close another 90 stores as border closures bite
					

Flight Centre will shut a further 90 stores across Australia as the ongoing closure of state and national borders keep holidaymakers grounded and the travel group in hibernation.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## qldfrog (1 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Flight Centre are closing more physical shopfronts.
> 
> As with most of this, once they're gone they're gone, they're unlikely to come back.
> 
> ...



The surprise is they managed to go that long.i have not visited a flight center office in the last 10 year, travelled madly and am not even young.
Covid killing travel for the baby boomers, it will not come back.i have no understanding how could anyone see any value with flight center as a company
A horse cart manufacturerin 1920s equivalent..


----------



## PZ99 (1 October 2020)

"S&P said total state, territory and commonwealth debt reached *$1tn* for the first time in *April*"









						Reserve Bank of Australia may have to buy state debt if Covid recovery slow, S&P says
					

Ratings agency says bank could use ‘monetary finance’ strategy its governor opposes as huge budget deficits threaten state credit ratings




					www.theguardian.com
				




That's our money folks


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## SirRumpole (1 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The surprise is they managed to go that long.i have not visited a flight center office in the last 10 year, travelled madly and am not even young.
> Covid killing travel for the baby boomers, it will not come back.i have no understanding how could anyone see any value with flight center as a company
> A horse cart manufacturerin 1920s equivalent..




I heard that tourism is a net deficit for Australia. ie there are more tourists going out and spending their money elsewhere than there are coming in and spending their money here.

So once our domestic borders are open, the local tourist  industry could be in for a boom as those that once would have gone O/S spend their money here instead.


----------



## Junior (1 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I heard that tourism is a net deficit for Australia. ie there are more tourists going out and spending their money elsewhere than there are coming in and spending their money here.
> 
> So once our domestic borders are open, the local tourist  industry could be in for a boom as those that once would have gone O/S spend their money here instead.




This could be a real positive in 2021.

Something I learnt this week...Australia has more than 100 caravan manufacturers.  They are in for a massive boom over the coming 12 months.  Every second person you speak to in Melbourne is planning a roadtrip, the highways are going to be chockas with campervans, caravans and motorhomes.  It will be great for rural/regional Australia!


----------



## qldfrog (1 October 2020)

Junior said:


> This could be a real positive in 2021.
> 
> Something I learnt this week...Australia has more than 100 caravan manufacturers.  They are in for a massive boom over the coming 12 months.  Every second person you speak to in Melbourne is planning a roadtrip, the highways are going to be chockas with campervans, caravans and motorhomes.  It will be great for rural/regional Australia!




*It will be great for rural/regional Australia! *
I heard @Garpal Gumnut  is ecstatic at the idea, as is every country person who will crawl at 60km/h to drive to their GP appointment or weekly shopping run 120km away.


----------



## Junior (1 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> *It will be great for rural/regional Australia! *
> I heard @Garpal Gumnut  is ecstatic at the idea, as is every country person who will crawl at 60km/h to drive to their GP appointment or weekly shopping run 120km away.




haha yep, there will certainly be plenty of whinging from the locals.  But unfortunately for a town to thrive, they need people moving through, visiting, spending money.  After bushfires & then COVID, they will be desperate for it, the alternative is all your local business owners shutting up shop.


----------



## qldfrog (1 October 2020)

Junior said:


> haha yep, there will certainly be plenty of whinging from the locals.  But unfortunately for a town to thrive, they need people moving through, visiting, spending money.  After bushfires & then COVID, they will be desperate for it, the alternative is all your local business owners shutting up shop.



My experience of the grey nomad in country towns is:
Might buy petrol if far enough from city but otherwise will camp for free at the rest , emty the wastes there and drive on to the next regional center to refill at ALDI woolies
If lucky, they might suffer a car break down and benefit the local garage but do not hold your breath
Cynical?


----------



## over9k (1 October 2020)

Depends if it's a tourist hotspot or not. 


Otherwise, it's just a service town, probably relying on the local agriculture or something. Maybe a mine if it's lucky.


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## Junior (1 October 2020)

There is going to be a MASS exodus out of Melbourne this Summer.  Hotspots will be super-crowded.  May as well embrace it and be happy for business-owners, it will only be for a few weeks, then school & work will hopefully come back normally in late Jan.


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## Smurf1976 (1 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I heard that tourism is a net deficit for Australia.



That's what the statistics show yes. Australians traveling overseas take more money out of the country than foreign visitors bring to Australia so from a national wealth perspective it's a net loss.

It does generate activity and employment though that's for sure and that applies to Australians traveling domestically as well as international visitors.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The surprise is they managed to go that long.i have not visited a flight center office in the last 10 year, travelled madly and am not even young.



Only people I know who've used travel agents in recent years are money rich and time poor.

They can find the time to take the trip but they know nothing about (say) Japan and don't have time to spend researching where to go and what to see there. They'll be more than happy to pay an agent to tell them that - they're not using them simply to make the booking.

Flight Centre with its focus on price probably isn't the best positioned to get those customers however since price isn't their focus, it's expertise they're looking for, price is whatever it is.


----------



## qldfrog (1 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Only people I know who've used travel agents in recent years are money rich and time poor.
> 
> They can find the time to take the trip but they know nothing about (say) Japan and don't have time to spend researching where to go and what to see there. They'll be more than happy to pay an agent to tell them that - they're not using them simply to make the booking.
> 
> Flight Centre with its focus on price probably isn't the best positioned to get those customers however since price isn't their focus, it's expertise they're looking for, price is whatever it is.



money rich and time poor and IMHO probably internet illiterate? everything is there for the taking, just ask Siri or whoever is your tool of choice.
I really believe it is a matter of generation.


----------



## qldfrog (1 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's what the statistics show yes. Australians traveling overseas take more money out of the country than foreign visitors bring to Australia so from a national wealth perspective it's a net loss.
> 
> It does generate activity and employment though that's for sure and that applies to Australians traveling domestically as well as international visitors.



when an international visitor spend 1k in aus, it is spent here;
when an Australian spend 1k O/S he/she also spends money here: airport fees, booking Flight Center, parking, etc I would be VERY surprised if the overall balance is positive, plus while many would spend 10k for a world tour, I doubt many will spend 10k for a Victoria holidays....


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## Garpal Gumnut (1 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Only people I know who've used travel agents in recent years are money rich and time poor.
> 
> They can find the time to take the trip but they know nothing about (say) Japan and don't have time to spend researching where to go and what to see there. They'll be more than happy to pay an agent to tell them that - they're not using them simply to make the booking.
> 
> Flight Centre with its focus on price probably isn't the best positioned to get those customers however since price isn't their focus, it's expertise they're looking for, price is whatever it is.





Junior said:


> This could be a real positive in 2021.
> 
> Something I learnt this week...Australia has more than 100 caravan manufacturers.  They are in for a massive boom over the coming 12 months.  Every second person you speak to in Melbourne is planning a roadtrip, the highways are going to be chockas with campervans, caravans and motorhomes.  It will be great for rural/regional Australia!





qldfrog said:


> *It will be great for rural/regional Australia! *
> I heard @Garpal Gumnut  is ecstatic at the idea, as is every country person who will crawl at 60km/h to drive to their GP appointment or weekly shopping run 120km away.



Flight Centre and those atrocious Grey Nomads seem to be flavour of the day on the thread today. 

A similar demographic plague both.

The CruisingVisitVeniceSailthebloodyDanube Brigade and Grey Nomads travel in packs. Whether it is behind me in Economy Class or along the Hume Highway heading towards Queensland from dreadful places like East Bentleigh they are the same. Luckily when I fly, Qantas keep them away from me by curtaining First and Business Class from them.

Along our Western Queensland Highways these wretches having shopped in Aldi or some other foreign shop trundle along at 80k and descend on towns which are doing quite well thank you from agriculture and mining. 

I cannot wait for Flight Centre to open again. I couldn't give a rats if the money goes overseas. The thought of more grey nomads makes me want to start a North and West Queensland Party to secede from Australia. 

gg


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## qldfrog (1 October 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Flight Centre and those atrocious Grey Nomads seem to be flavour of the day on the thread today.
> 
> A similar demographic plague both.
> 
> ...



was not expecting less GG


----------



## sptrawler (1 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's what the statistics show yes. Australians traveling overseas take more money out of the country than foreign visitors bring to Australia so from a national wealth perspective it's a net loss.
> 
> It does generate activity and employment though that's for sure and that applies to Australians traveling domestically as well as international visitors.



Most who come to Australia, are adventure seeking backpackers.
Most Australians who travel OS, are cashed up and cover all age groups.
It is only while Aussies are at home, they can get away with bleating about how poor they are and pizzing in everyones pocket. When OS everyone knows they are cash cows.lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> money rich and time poor and IMHO probably internet illiterate?



Not internet illiterate just time poor and lacking knowledge of where to go and what to see when they get there.

Yes they could research it themselves but that applies to pretty much anything - apart from disabled etc nobody else needs someone to mow their lawns, wash their car or do basic carpentry for example but in practice many choose to pay someone to do it.


----------



## qldfrog (2 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Most who come to Australia, are adventure seeking backpackers.
> Most Australians who travel OS, are cashed up and cover all age groups.
> It is only while Aussies are at home, they can get away with bleating about how poor they are and pizzing in everyones pocket. When OS everyone knows they are cash cows.lol



Some truth but in the last 5y/ decade the os visitors were joined by Chinese travel groups.
While i have no doubt most of the associated companies, a nice inner club, would have reported quite a low tax return profit, the inbound money, associated purchases of UGGs, wool doonas, abalones,etc within our domestic market was extremely significant and i doubt any of that is included in our travel comparison figures.not to mention associated kids uni fees and unit purchased
A market gone and dusted.
As to Australian lining up to dream world or crocodile farms, good luck.once maybe but not twice.a whole industry slaughtered.who cares, we got welfare, debt  and NDIS..


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 October 2020)

The economic effects of Covid will only become more clear when Government use of stimulus changes from short to longer term, and from individual to national rebuliding. 

It does not look good for larger cities. They will have to depend on private investment and their internal economies to survive. Although it is a stretch for me to understand how many times a cup of coffee can be sold back and forth to make an economy, that is what  Melbourne plans at present. 

Agriculture and mining will survive, the latter seems like a better bet, although the former has kept us going for tens of thousands of years. A reset may be inevitable with smaller crop holding entities and less industrialisation due to manpower shortage. 

It is possible to recover with a smaller population, the Germans did it twice in the 20th century albeit with significant inflation. 

Interesting times. 

gg


----------



## over9k (6 October 2020)

And in ever-repeating news:




It's almost as if a lot of people actually prefer to work remotely. Apparently sitting in traffic or sardine-crammed into a train for two hours a day sucks. Who knew? 

Evidently there's a productivity hit to (some) people and so you can negotiate a pay cut to drop your productivity if it means you get to work from home.

Not even a tradeoff if you have a home office/don't lose any productivity. You could probably even negotiate a raise as your employer is no longer renting office space for you.

All round win.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 October 2020)

"I must again repeat what the assailants of utilitarianism seldom have the justice to acknowledge, that the happiness which forms the utilitarian standard of what is right in conduct is not the agent's own happiness but that of all concerned." (John Stuart Mill)

Perhaps Danny boy might like to read some books before he burns them 😭

Now that we all are having a laugh.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 October 2020)

These dumb idiot politicians will jump how high requested when off-beat health professionals tell them to act, but when a military professional says not to buy some dud French subs to defend the nation; it is a different story.

PATHETIC PEOPLE IN CANBERRA!


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 October 2020)

I am not suggesting to take an aggressive posture towards China at the moment. China seems to struggle with their ancient Eastern philosophy:

46 When a country is in harmony with the Tao, the factories make trucks and tractors. When a country goes counter to the Tao, warheads are stockpiled outside the cities. There is no greater illusion than fear, no greater wrong than preparing to defend yourself, no greater misfortune than having an enemy. Whoever can see through all fear will always be safe.

*If only they could adopt such a peaceful philosophy.*


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 October 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> I am not suggesting to take an aggressive posture towards China at the moment. China seems to struggle with their ancient Eastern philosophy:
> 
> 46 When a country is in harmony with the Tao, the factories make trucks and tractors. When a country goes counter to the Tao, warheads are stockpiled outside the cities. There is no greater illusion than fear, no greater wrong than preparing to defend yourself, no greater misfortune than having an enemy. Whoever can see through all fear will always be safe.
> 
> *If only they could adopt such a peaceful philosophy.*




In my opinion we still trade as friends, however we can't accept foreign control of our essential infrastructure, farm land, and utilities. Just the same as China.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 October 2020)

How is this for you Dan Andrews; still getting paid your few hundred thousand a year?

"In man's life his time is a mere instant, his existence a flux, his perception fogged, his whole bodily composition rotting, his mind whirligig, his fortune unpredictable, his fame unclear." (Marcus Aurelius)

Just grabbed it out of my library for you.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (6 October 2020)

So this is the deal:

Those *idiots* in Canberra will do their dirty deals for the French subs; and in return I am left alone to get my job in a library: Fair?


----------



## over9k (7 October 2020)

__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




"More than half of companies plan to shrink their offices as working from home becomes a regular fixture after the Covid-19 pandemic ends, according to a survey by Cisco Systems Inc.



Some 53% of larger organizations plan to reduce the size of their office space and more than three quarters will increase work flexibility. Almost all of the respondents were uncomfortable returning to work because they fear contracting the virus, the poll found.



Cisco, the largest maker of networking equipment, recently surveyed 1,569 executives, knowledge workers and others who are responsible for employee environments in the post-Covid era. The findings suggest many of this year’s radical changes to work life will remain long after the pandemic subsides.



The poll, conducted for Cisco by Dimensional Research, concluded that working from home is the “new normal.” More than 90% of respondents said they won’t return to the office full time. 12% plan to work from home all the time, 24% will work remotely more than 15 days of each month, while 22% will do that eight to 15 days every month".



Cisco's stock price has fallen off a cliff since mid july as this is not exactly recent news:





And thomson-reuters might be realising that this is work in the modern age/commercial real estate isn't going to recover and so are cutting their losses whilst they can:






__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




"Thomson Reuters Corp. is exploring the sale of its 50% stake in Manhattan office tower 3 Times Square, becoming the latest media giant to rethink its property holdings, according to people with knowledge of the matter.



The company has tapped an adviser to solicit potential interest in buying Thomson Reuters’ stake in the property, which it co-owns alongside Rudin Management Co., said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The 32-story building serves as a hub for the news service.



No final decisions have been made and the company could retain the property, which opened in 2001 and includes roughly 885,000 square feet (82,000 square meters) of space -- as well as outdoor billboard space for rent. It’s not immediately clear how much the building would fetch in a sale, but at $800 per square foot, it could be valued at roughly $700 million".


As I've said before, working from home is actually a massive increase in efficiency if done right, so unless a lot of commercial real estate is rezoned & refitted as residential, it's done for on account of simply no longer being needed.


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2020)

over9k said:


> And in ever-repeating news:
> 
> View attachment 112672
> 
> ...



About that win win, if you dig a bit deeper:
What FB has just announced aka Mark Z:
In the name of fairness ROL:
If you do work from home and relocate in a cheaper area, you will have a pay cut as your living costs..aka mortgages etc are lower
You will also discover in numerous new studies that you are expected to work more, and be at call...
A great socialist heaven of equal pay worldwide with capitalist plus of being based on the lowest denominator aka lowest pay.
A scam within a scam for the masses.
DYOR
Just wondering how long it will take for people to wake up? The "you are fired " notice in the mail (or SMS) or before?


----------



## over9k (7 October 2020)

Not following you there frog, how does moving to a cheaper area give you a pay cut?


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Not following you there frog, how does moving to a cheaper area give you a pay cut?



Facebook has just announced  it will review the physical location of his wfh employees and adjust..reduce their salary based on this:
Many bay area employees paid big bucks quickly moved to remote rural area where their million dollar slum in SF or silicon valley bought them 5xmansions in kansas or seaside NC.
I try to find the link


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2020)

https://fortune.com/2020/05/21/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-salaries/amp/
This was in may, i heard about it last week in french news as it was implemented


----------



## over9k (7 October 2020)

If my employer tried that I'd tell them to do one and go & work for someone else.


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## qldfrog (7 October 2020)

over9k said:


> If my employer tried that I'd tell them to do one and go & work for someone else.



But you are now in middle Kansas, or Wyoming and competing with Bangalore....
All that a deja vu for me as i come from the IT industry and ended up having to : get my own company and specialise in mining to ensure a nice market.i pity the lawyers, mid management etc basically the 60% if not more of white collar jobs who will have to compete with Philippines Vietnam you name it while still paying their council rates and NDIS tax load


----------



## over9k (7 October 2020)

Eh kind of. Remote work like that already existed and I can assure you, it's cheap for a reason. 

I get your point, but we're not all going to be working for peanuts next week.


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> But you are now in middle Kansas, or Wyoming and competing with Bangalore....
> All that a deja vu for me as i come from the IT industry and ended up having to : get my own company and specialise in mining to ensure a nice market.i pity the lawyers, mid management etc basically the 60% if not more of white collar jobs who will have to compete with Philippines Vietnam you name it while still paying their council rates and NDIS tax load



I meant niche market, not nice market..was both..


----------



## qldfrog (7 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Eh kind of. Remote work like that already existed and I can assure you, it's cheap for a reason.
> 
> I get your point, but we're not all going to be working for peanuts next week.



Just take time and inflation of peanuts😊


----------



## over9k (10 October 2020)

Microsoft to let employees work from home permanently: report
					

Software giant Microsoft will let employees work from home permanently if they choose to, US media reported on Friday, becoming the latest employer to expand work-from-home provisions prompted by the Covid-19 pandemic.




					au.finance.yahoo.com


----------



## over9k (10 October 2020)

Stimulus offers from the white house now also up to 1.8 trillion - democrats last came down to 2.4 so looks like it might finally pass soon.


----------



## over9k (10 October 2020)

And finally, some actual data:


----------



## over9k (11 October 2020)




----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Facebook has just announced  it will review the physical location of his wfh employees and adjust..reduce their salary based on this:
> Many bay area employees paid big bucks quickly moved to remote rural area where their million dollar slum in SF or silicon valley bought them 5xmansions in kansas or seaside NC.
> I try to find the link



If I were Zuckerberg I'd be using this as a carrot to get everyone to work from home. Differential wages would then disappear after 12 months due to market forces as you outlined @qldfrog . Then real estate values would reset. So as crazy as it sounds there is method in his strategy. 

gg


----------



## basilio (11 October 2020)

BBC has a good overview of the ongoing effect of COVID 19. The upsurge in new cases in  Europe and the explosion in India, South America and resurgence in US is undermining economic activity at a staggering rate.

Excellent graphical analysis in the story.

_Governments across the world have been forced to limit public movement and close businesses and venues in a bid to slow the spread of the virus. This has had a devastating impact on the global economy.

*Damage to the world's major economies is four times worse than the 2009 global financial crisis, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).*

Meanwhile, the United Nations has said that up to 265 million people could face starvation by the end of the year because of the impact of Covid-19.



			https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
		

_


----------



## basilio (11 October 2020)

*G20 GDP Growth - Second quarter of 2020, OECD*
​ *Unprecedented falls in GDP in most G20 economies in second quarter of 2020*

*Download the entire news release (PDF 120KB)*

14 Sept. 2020 - COVID-19 containment measures weighed heavily on economic activity in the second quarter of 2020, with unprecedented falls in real gross domestic product (GDP) in most G20 countries. For the *G20 area* as a whole, GDP dropped by a record (minus) 6.9%, significantly larger than the (minus) 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of 2009 at the height of the financial crisis.
*China* was the only G20 country recording growth (11.5%) in the second quarter of 2020, reflecting the earlier onset of the pandemic in this country and subsequent recovery. GDP contracted by an average of (minus) 11.8% in all other G20 economies in the second quarter of 2020, when the effects of the pandemic began to be more widely felt.

GDP fell most dramatically, by (minus) 25.2%, in *India*, followed by the *United* *Kingdom* (minus 20.4%). GDP also dropped sharply in *Mexico* (minus 17.1%), *South Africa* (minus 16.4%), *France* (minus 13.8%), *Italy* (minus 12.8%), *Canada* (minus 11.5%), *Turkey* (minus 11.0%), *Brazil* and *Germany* (minus 9.7% in both countries), the *United* *States* (minus 9.1%), *Japan* (minus 7.9%), *Australia* (minus 7.0%) and *Indonesia* (minus 6.9%). The contraction was less pronounced in *Korea* and *Russia* (minus 3.2% in both countries).
Year-on-year GDP in the *G20 area* fell by (minus) 9.1% in the second quarter of 2020, following a contraction of (minus) 1.7% in the previous quarter. Among G20 economies, *China* recorded the highest annual growth (3.2%), while *India *recorded the largest annual fall (minus 23.5%).









						G20 GDP Growth - Second quarter of 2020, OECD
					

Data and research on GDP including real GDP growth, Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), National Accounts at a Glance., Unprecedented falls in GDP in most G20 economies in second quarter of 2020




					www.oecd.org


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## Sdajii (11 October 2020)

basilio said:


> _Meanwhile, the United Nations has said that up to 265 million people could face starvation by the end of the year because of the impact of Covid-19._




It's comical that most people still believe the narrative that the economic disaster is being caused by the virus and not the politics, and that the lockdowns are doing more good than harm.

We now have plenty of data on this virus. It's very clear that if we'd done nothing at all, things wouldn't have been all that bad, especially compared to the reality we have created. The virus itself would have caused problems far more like a single bad flu season than a situation of extreme global economic catastrophe, a mental health crisis far worse than anything in all history, 265 million people potentially facing starvation, the highest suicide rate in history, the most sudden removal of human rights ever seen on this scale, etc etc.

Elderly people and those soon to die of cancer etc are not the ones ploughing fields and putting food on the table. These economic problems are very clearly being caused by the lockdowns which are ridiculously drastic relative to the virus.

Again, we can look at Sweden, which as time goes on just shows more and more clearly that we should have just treated this like a bad flu type virus rather than act like it was some sort of massively deadly bug which was going to wipe out 5% of the population including the young and healthy. Sweden has had a negligible death toll since July, and of the few people who died during their cycle, most would have died anyway (of old age, diabetes, cancer, etc). If the world had taken a similar strategy it would no longer be a problem. It just gets more obvious by the day (it was predicable/obvious back in March) that the economy is hurting because of government policies, not the virus itself, not to mention all the other horrific issues they have caused, for very little benefit.


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## Smurf1976 (11 October 2020)

Just one of many examples showing that the world as we knew it is not returning anytime soon:









						Cruise ships dismantled for scrap metal as pandemic sinks industry
					

Before the pandemic, Turkey's ship-breaking yards typically handled cargo and container ships. Then the pandemic began and the world's cruise ships changed course for the site.




					www.abc.net.au
				




They wouldn't be cutting up the ships if their owners thought this was just a blip.


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## Sdajii (11 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just one of many examples showing that the world as we knew it is not returning anytime soon:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




It's difficult to get the full context here. There are literally hundreds of large cruise ships. Like any vehicle, they have a finite lifespan and like most vehicles they'll get turned into scrap metal at the end. I'm not sure what the life expectancy of a cruise ship is, but even if it was around 50 years (and I'm sure it's less on average) we'd have quite a few being scrapped every year. The article says five are being scrapped and they expect 3 more. That still leaves hundreds and is barely a blip on the total number.

It makes perfect sense to expect that more than usual will be scrapped this year because it's pretty likely that the cruise industry is going to be reduced significantly for a few years and especially in the next 2-3 years, but if they fully expected the cruise industry to 100% recover within 2 years from now, we'd still expect three times the normal yearly number of cruise ships to be scrapped, which I assume would be significantly more than 8.

The message of the article may well be correct, but it's a bit like going to a scrap yard, seeing 100 old cars being scrapped and saying it's evidence that the automotive industry is dying. Or showing 100 dead old people and saying humans are going extinct. Even if it is the case, that sort of thing is not evidence of it. Unless Cruise ships typically have a lifespan longer than the cruise industry has been around and usually none get scrapped, in which case I have it wrong.


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## Value Collector (12 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's difficult to get the full context here. There are literally hundreds of large cruise ships. Like any vehicle, they have a finite lifespan and like most vehicles they'll get turned into scrap metal at the end. I'm not sure what the life expectancy of a cruise ship is, but even if it was around 50 years (and I'm sure it's less on average) we'd have quite a few being scrapped every year. The article says five are being scrapped and they expect 3 more. That still leaves hundreds and is barely a blip on the total number.
> 
> It makes perfect sense to expect that more than usual will be scrapped this year because it's pretty likely that the cruise industry is going to be reduced significantly for a few years and especially in the next 2-3 years, but if they fully expected the cruise industry to 100% recover within 2 years from now, we'd still expect three times the normal yearly number of cruise ships to be scrapped, which I assume would be significantly more than 8.
> 
> The message of the article may well be correct, but it's a bit like going to a scrap yard, seeing 100 old cars being scrapped and saying it's evidence that the automotive industry is dying. Or showing 100 dead old people and saying humans are going extinct. Even if it is the case, that sort of thing is not evidence of it. Unless Cruise ships typically have a lifespan longer than the cruise industry has been around and usually none get scrapped, in which case I have it wrong.




Yep, cruise companies have to spend money everyday to keep their ships going, and at the moment they aren’t getting income.

So it’s in their interests to shrink their fleets by getting rid of their older ships that won’t be needed, and when the industry grows again buy some new ones.

when the industry is booming older ships would be kept going a bit longer, but when the boom is over the older ships get scrapped


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## sptrawler (12 October 2020)

The WHO has asked for a stop to lockdowns.









						WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns
					

The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## qldfrog (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The WHO has asked for a stop to lockdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



While i do not have much respect for who's top management, they still have to consider the overall health and well being of the world, so not surprised .the current governments policies are killing millions now and destroying economies so killing into the future.
Even wo government lockdown, my aged inlaws called yesterday from France, their mental and physical wellbeing is collapsing : no more gatherings, outing, friend or family visits with the hysteria.obviously no money spend...except for extra prescriptions and medical fees.
It would be 8nteresting to see overall medical expenses on the pandemic: i expect an initial slowdown then a pretty steep jump due to undetected illnesses and lockdown/scare created specific chronic diseases: from depression, lack of exercise to eating disorders.
With winter coming in the northern hemisphere and mood collapsing,health figures will not be healthy in 6 months without the need of covid actual sickness.


----------



## Sdajii (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The WHO has asked for a stop to lockdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Now even the WHO is being forced to admit what I've been saying since early this year, including in this thread where I've been ridiculed and berated for saying it; these lockdowns and the hysteria campaign are clearly causing far more harm than good to both the global economic and health situations. It will cause far (many many times) more death and suffering than it will prevent. It was incredibly obvious when I was predicting it early in the year and it's now overwhelmingly obvious that it has already occurred and will get progressively worse even if we take the necessary backflip now, which we won't, but the sooner we do wake up to the obvious the less damage will be caused. We've turned what should have just been as bad as a very bad flu season into a complete catastrophe which will literally cause more human deaths than anything else ever has, and put more people into poverty than anything ever has. I'm not just predicting this any more, even the WHO is admitting it and it's already happening and completely clear and obvious.


----------



## sptrawler (12 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Now even the WHO is being forced to admit what I've been saying since early this year, including in this thread where I've been ridiculed and berated for saying it; these lockdowns and the hysteria campaign are clearly causing far more harm than good to both the global economic and health situations. It will cause far (many many times) more death and suffering than it will prevent. It was incredibly obvious when I was predicting it early in the year and it's now overwhelmingly obvious that it has already occurred and will get progressively worse even if we take the necessary backflip now, which we won't, but the sooner we do wake up to the obvious the less damage will be caused. We've turned what should have just been as bad as a very bad flu season into a complete catastrophe which will literally cause more human deaths than anything else ever has, and put more people into poverty than anything ever has. I'm not just predicting this any more, even the WHO is admitting it and it's already happening and completely clear and obvious.



The problem is in Australia everyone thinks we are the norm, when in fact we are far from it. We think just do what we are doing and shut everything down, when we are one of the only countries who can afford to do it.
Places like Bali etc are in a terrible state, people are struggling to survive, due to the fall in tourism.
Very few places in the World have any form of welfare, let alone able to afford to double the payments, meanwhile we sit back smugly and criticise how they are handling the situation. Sad really.


----------



## Sdajii (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is in Australia everyone thinks we are the norm, when in fact we are far from it. We think just do what we are doing and shut everything down, when we are one of the only countries who can afford to do it.
> Places like Bali etc are in a terrible state, people are struggling to survive, due to the fall in tourism.
> Very few places in the World have any form of welfare, let alone able to afford to double the payments, meanwhile we sit back smugly and criticise how they are handling the situation. Sad really.




This is true, but even Australians will be harmed economically and mortally and morbidly and psychologically far more by the politics than the virus itself, and more than the virus would have harmed us if we'd done literally nothing. Flattening the curve, the original mantra, was the appropriate course of action, assuming the hospitals would be overflowing and there would be widespread death for want of hospital capacity. As it turns out, we were just never going to be in a position anything like that, and that was obvious early in the year.

You're mostly right, the rest of the world will suffer more than Australia on average, but Australia will suffer severely in the long run, and has already suffered more than we would have due to the virus. So far it is Melbourne hurting the most, but you don't severely harm 20% of the population of Australia and do extreme economic damage without long term consequence to the whole country.

All along, it has been clear that people view the lockdowns according to the way it affects them personally in the immediate term. About 80% of Australians (those not in Melbourne) typically think the lockdowns are no big deal and are happy to either say 'Hang in there, Melbourne!' or 'Haha, suck it, Melbourne, you're garbage and deserve it, we're better than you and aren't suffering because we're not scum!' (often honestly believing that they actually are in a population of people who are better than those in Melbourne, and that all people in Melbourne, including those like me who became trapped here despite not living here, deserve to be in this situation). Most people think that if they're not going to starve from poverty, the poverty issue isn't too bad. If they're not suffering from mental illness, it's a manageable issue which was worthwhile. It's no surprise to anyone with much understanding of human nature, but it is a spectacular display of how self-centered humans are. The most poor people in the world will be the ones suffering most, in their hundreds of millions. Billions of humans will suffer very significantly. It's possible that the deaths will be in the hundreds of millions, all to save a few hundred thousand preventable deaths! Most deaths will be due to economic issues, coming from the lockdowns and clearly not the virus.


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## qldfrog (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is in Australia everyone thinks we are the norm, when in fact we are far from it. We think just do what we are doing and shut everything down, when we are one of the only countries who can afford to do it.
> Places like Bali etc are in a terrible state, people are struggling to survive, due to the fall in tourism.
> Very few places in the World have any form of welfare, let alone able to afford to double the payments, meanwhile we sit back smugly and criticise how they are handling the situation. Sad really.



And we will have to reopen one day or is North Korea our new model?
Some may remember my initial thoughts on a vaccine..well october now clock is ticking and nothing factual
Considering at least 75% of infected people present no symptom..from memory but it could be 60%...in any case huge majority: how are we going to determine a working vaccine?
As we all agree that no vaccine can be 100%  efficient...
Soon we might see with vaccine only 40% of people got sick, and shout victory😊
I will join them eyaaa eyaaa vaccine....as long as the circus stops


----------



## over9k (12 October 2020)

Doesn't matter. The politicians are not going to change their tune.


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## sptrawler (12 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This is true, but even Australians will be harmed economically and mortally and morbidly and psychologically far more by the politics than the virus itself, and more than the virus would have harmed us if we'd done literally nothing. Flattening the curve, the original mantra, was the appropriate course of action, assuming the hospitals would be overflowing and there would be widespread death for want of hospital capacity. As it turns out, we were just never going to be in a position anything like that, and that was obvious early in the year.
> 
> You're mostly right, the rest of the world will suffer more than Australia on average, but Australia will suffer severely in the long run, and has already suffered more than we would have due to the virus. So far it is Melbourne hurting the most, but you don't severely harm 20% of the population of Australia and do extreme economic damage without long term consequence to the whole country.
> 
> All along, it has been clear that people view the lockdowns according to the way it affects them personally in the immediate term. About 80% of Australians (those not in Melbourne) typically think the lockdowns are no big deal and are happy to either say 'Hang in there, Melbourne!' or 'Haha, suck it, Melbourne, you're garbage and deserve it, we're better than you and aren't suffering because we're not scum!' (often honestly believing that they actually are in a population of people who are better than those in Melbourne, and that all people in Melbourne, including those like me who became trapped here despite not living here, deserve to be in this situation). Most people think that if they're not going to starve from poverty, the poverty issue isn't too bad. If they're not suffering from mental illness, it's a manageable issue which was worthwhile. It's no surprise to anyone with much understanding of human nature, but it is a spectacular display of how self-centered humans are. The most poor people in the world will be the ones suffering most, in their hundreds of millions. Billions of humans will suffer very significantly. It's possible that the deaths will be in the hundreds of millions, all to save a few hundred thousand preventable deaths! Most deaths will be due to economic issues, coming from the lockdowns and clearly not the virus.



I agree with your sentiment, but the economic reality is what it is and we will recover, we are still a growing economy and population.
I just hope it all proves to be worthwhile and based on factual evidence, rather than orchestrated, which unfortunately lots of things are these days.


----------



## Sdajii (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with your sentiment, but the economic reality is what it is and we will recover, we are still a growing economy and population.
> I just hope it all proves to be worthwhile and based on factual evidence, rather than orchestrated, which unfortunately lots of things are these days.




You realise we are in a pretty severe recession, right? That literally is defined by a contracting rather than growing economy.

The virus did not cause this. The policies did. With zero policy change and zero awareness campaigns, the global economy would have been minimally effected and Australia would still have a growing economy. Australia's economy will grow again, but don't hold your breath waiting, and it's going to be an ugly economic (and political, social, etc) situation in the mean time.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 October 2020)

_When your neighbor loses their job,  it’s a recession.
  When you lose your job, that’s a  depression_.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> the economic reality is what it is and we will recover, we are still a growing economy and population.



There's also the reality that we're getting economic change done in a matter of a year or so that would otherwise have taken decades to get anywhere.


----------



## sptrawler (12 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You realise we are in a pretty severe recession, right? That literally is defined by a contracting rather than growing economy.
> 
> The virus did not cause this. The policies did. With zero policy change and zero awareness campaigns, the global economy would have been minimally effected and Australia would still have a growing economy. Australia's economy will grow again, but don't hold your breath waiting, and it's going to be an ugly economic (and political, social, etc) situation in the mean time.



I started work in 1970 so I have been through a few recessions, this one actually isn't that severe, there wasn't any government handouts in the others. It was just a case of suck it up princess.
As Paul Keating said in the 1980's we just have to have recessions occasionally, the economy gets bloated, the public sector gets bloated, asset prices get bloated, people take on debt to buy bloated asset's in the hope they bloat further.
Sooner or later something has to pop the bubble, otherwise everything becomes self perpetuating, all investment goes into the non productive side of the economy. 
How many people were pouring money into factories and small businesses, as opposed to those pouring money into real estate and shares?
If it wasn't covid, it would have been something else, wash, rinse, repeat.
Just my opinion


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Sooner or later something has to pop the bubble, otherwise everything becomes self perpetuating, all investment goes into the non productive side of the economy.



The situation has been apparent to those paying attention for more than 15 years now and the effects are there for all to see with a generation largely priced out of housing, stagnant real wages, Australia's international competitiveness in a truly shocking position, massive supply chain vulnerability for even basic goods and so on.

Unpleasant though it may be, recessions are needed just like humans need exercise. Keep putting it off and ultimately there's a huge price to be paid for doing so. 

The pandemic bull chasing us down the street may well have been destructive but it has forced us go get of our collective bottoms and go for a decent run for the first time in years.


----------



## moXJO (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is in Australia everyone thinks we are the norm, when in fact we are far from it. We think just do what we are doing and shut everything down, when we are one of the only countries who can afford to do it.
> Places like Bali etc are in a terrible state, people are struggling to survive, due to the fall in tourism.
> Very few places in the World have any form of welfare, let alone able to afford to double the payments, meanwhile we sit back smugly and criticise how they are handling the situation. Sad really.



Its really bad in some places. I know a lot of the animals are starving in tourist locations across the world as well.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2020)

moXJO said:


> Its really bad in some places. I know a lot of the animals are starving in tourist locations across the world as well.



What that shows is just how badly we collectively failed to plan for something we always knew was possible.


----------



## Sdajii (12 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I started work in 1970 so I have been through a few recessions, this one actually isn't that severe, there wasn't any government handouts in the others. It was just a case of suck it up princess.
> As Paul Keating said in the 1980's we just have to have recessions occasionally, the economy gets bloated, the public sector gets bloated, asset prices get bloated, people take on debt to buy bloated asset's in the hope they bloat further.
> Sooner or later something has to pop the bubble, otherwise everything becomes self perpetuating, all investment goes into the non productive side of the economy.
> How many people were pouring money into factories and small businesses, as opposed to those pouring money into real estate and shares?
> ...




In a way I admire and even envy your unbridled, unrealistic optimism. There weren't any government handouts previously because the situation wasn't so dire.  What you're saying is basically "This one isn't so bad because it's so drastic that they've taken extreme measures in desperation which were not needed before".

The last severe economic disaster was 2008, the 'Global Financial Crisis'. That was nothing compared to this. That was a zero sum game. There were no lockdowns, there was no fear campaign to stop being carrying out economic activity. There was no travel ban, no forced closure of business, quite the opposite of all of that. In that zero sum game, wealth just changed hands. There were winners and losers, but little net loss. The world never fully recovered from that and has been economically vulnerable since then. You can justify saying that we 'needed a recession' around now, I remember Paul Keating saying what he did in the 80s, I remember everyone mocking him, and I'll confess that it wasn't until some years after then that I understood that he was correct (most people will never grasp the concept and no politician would make such a statement now, because correct as it may be, the masses won't understand it and will assume a politician saying it is a dozen types of hideous). The difference is that in this case, not only were we sitting on a very fragile economy, but we have two severe impacts, neither of which make it a zero sum game like previous crashes; we have government policy enforcing economic harm by literally stopping economic activity by law, plus we have a fear campaign making people too terrified to take part in economic activity (whether they're too scared to go out and do anything/spend or too scared to invest/carry out business because things seem so bleak), plus the third impact being the underlying economic fragility at this time, and you have the perfect storm for something much worse than Keating's recession we had to have or 2008's zero sum game, or other minor (by comparison) recessions. This is also the most global economic disaster in history, rather than being more of a national issue, and that comes at a time when the global economy is more interconnected and susceptible to contagion than ever before. Additionally, we have a cold war brewing with at least one very major player actively wanting the west to economically suffer, while they are doing extremely well economically (a tinfoil hat wearer's wet dream/nightmare).

When Keating said "...recession we had to have" no one was predicting hundreds of millions of people facing starvation and many more facing severe poverty. Pointing out that you've been in the workforce for 50 years just puts your poor assessment of the situation in a worse light.


----------



## sptrawler (13 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The last severe economic disaster was 2008, the 'Global Financial Crisis'. That was nothing compared to this.



That is true the 2008 global financial crisis had very little impact on us, the U.S had sold consolidated debt obligations full of crap mortgages to U.K and European financial institutions, we were quite fortunate our banks had very little exposure.
This is very different and it is affecting a different part of the economy, but the early 80's had over 10% unemployment followed by 20% interest rates, so I know it isn't as melodramatic as shutdowns etc but it was difficult.
From what I have read Australia's fiscal contraction isn't earth shattering, Federal debt will go to about43% of GDP, which isn't good but isn't the worst that we have had and isn't huge in comparison to other developed countries.
The Federal Government is pushing to open the borders, but is limited in how much they can do, as the States make their own decisions.
As for the rest of the World i feel sorry for them, as I don't think most are in as good a shape as we are, except for China, Russia and other authoritarian countries that can just enforce anything.
Maybe the fact you are probably a lot younger than me, increases your angst and panic, who knows.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 October 2020)

On one hand this is the worst global downturn since the 1930's.

On the other hand, I can certainly see the point that life thus far for the average Australian hasn't reached 1990's levels of despair on account of the economic situation. On account of other things like the loss of major events or being locked indoors perhaps yes, but not due to the economic situation.

In the 1990's I knew someone who moved to WA. They had no job lined up and didn't know a single person living there. They went for one simple reason - the state's 8% unemployment rate was a massive attraction compared to that prevailing in Vic, SA and Tas at the time. With an unemployment rate so low, there'd be at least some chance of getting a job surely.

The latest ABS data shows unemployment below 8% not just in one one state but in every state. The whole country now has an unemployment rate lower than the best state did back then.

There's also a duration thing to all this. The economic troubles of the late 1970's had barely ended when the 1991 recession arrived and despite what economists may claim, the "early 1990's" recession lasted until pretty close to the year 2000 in terms of its practical effects. All up we'd had gloom and doom fully 90% of the time for a quarter of a century by that point.

Thus far we've got what, 7 months of trouble. That's nothing compared to those previous incidents. In due course that will probably change, I fully expect this whole thing will be a long and drawn out affair, but 7 months isn't long, not when you consider that things were still pretty stuffed after 7 years following the early 80's and 90's recessions.


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## sptrawler (13 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Thus far we've got what, 7 months of trouble. That's nothing compared to those previous incidents. In due course that will probably change, I fully expect this whole thing will be a long and drawn out affair, but 7 months isn't long, not when you consider that things were still pretty stuffed after 7 years following the early 80's and 90's recessions.



That is what I was getting at, from an economic position this hasn't really played out yet, unless things start and return to normal it could get a whole lot worse.
If it gets back to normal i.e freedom of movement and cross border travel, then the Government stimulus payments could well flatten out the fall and the slow return to growth will start.
But there are a lot of stars that have to line up for that to happen, if they don't this could well turn out to be the worst recession ever.
Every country is pouring in some form of stimulus, so our raw materials will still be required.
Housing will be hit due to lack of immigration, but is that a bad thing? New housing and building is getting short term stimulus, which is attracting new home owners and social housing is on the agenda, so the possible outcome is a fall in established home prices again is that bad?
Local tourism is booming as overseas travel is stopped, obviously Victoria is suffering, but that should be short lived. Retail is booming as cancelled overseas holidays and and extra stimulus money is channeled into comfort spending, DIY is booming, used car sales are booming, it could all fall on its ar$e but it hasn't yet.
If things aren't opened up before the stimulus stops, well that will turn things nasty IMO.
Time will tell.


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## Sdajii (13 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That is true the 2008 global financial crisis had very little impact on us, the U.S had sold consolidated debt obligations full of crap mortgages to U.K and European financial institutions, we were quite fortunate our banks had very little exposure.
> This is very different and it is affecting a different part of the economy, but the early 80's had over 10% unemployment followed by 20% interest rates, so I know it isn't as melodramatic as shutdowns etc but it was difficult.
> From what I have read Australia's fiscal contraction isn't earth shattering, Federal debt will go to about43% of GDP, which isn't good but isn't the worst that we have had and isn't huge in comparison to other developed countries.
> The Federal Government is pushing to open the borders, but is limited in how much they can do, as the States make their own decisions.
> ...




It's surprising how short term your view is. Australia may be a literal island, but it does not exist in a vacuum. Australia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world because of its natural resources, which are exported. In the very short term, now, Australia's wealth allows it to survive relatively comfortably (as long as you ignore the extreme suffering by the significant number of Australians who are killing themselves, losing their businesses/jobs, having mental health issues in the biggest ever mental health crisis, etc etc). In the longer term, if the global economic situation deteriorates, Australia's economic situation will suffer horribly, because we won't have those export dollars coming in, we won't have so many cashed up foreigners coming to visit. Our previous economic prosperity will only carry us so far. Additionally, as a nation which has enjoyed many decades of being on the wealthiest in the world, there is a high addiction to high spending, leaving Australia very vulnerable to a decline. Your optimism is out of place other than in the short term.

I am not in panic as you've assumed. Being able to understand dire writing on the wall doesn't mean you are panicking and it does not require panic to understand it. My personal situation is irrelevant to the big picture, and I remain optimistic about my personal future. This year I've managed to save money money than any other since about 2012, which I suppose I'm reasonably happy with considering at the start of this year I lost my business and was wiped out to zero, literally losing everything right down to my clothes, laptop, toothpaste, etc, and became trapped in a country I had no intention of spending more than 1-2 weeks in, and just happen to be in the place with the world's most extreme lockdown, while even the WHO now admits lockdowns cause more harm than the virus.

You bring your age up again as though it is a default for wisdom or experience, but such things don't come automatically with age, even if there is a correlation. You seem to think that since you're old you must be correct. This is not the case.


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## SirRumpole (13 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You bring your age up again as though it is a default for wisdom or experience, but such things don't come automatically with age, even if there is a correlation. You seem to think that since you're old you must be correct. This is not the case.




True, but wisdom and age beat youth and inexperience.


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## Sdajii (13 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> True, but wisdom and age beat youth and inexperience.




Only if that wisdom does indeed exist, which quite often it does not.

The oldest president of the USA ever to be voted in was your good friend and idol, Mr. Donald Trump. Do you consider him to be the most wise in that nation's great history?


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## SirRumpole (13 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Only if that wisdom does indeed exist, which quite often it does not.
> 
> The oldest president of the USA ever to be voted in was your good friend and idol, Mr. Donald Trump. Do you consider him to be the most wise in that nation's great history?




Old age and wisdom don't necessarily go together.

DJ Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and spent most of his life looking down on others and using them to make money for himself.

Those in this forum that faced recessions at the ground level like sp are much more likely to gain the benefit of wisdom through actual lived experience.


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## Sdajii (13 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Old age and wisdom don't necessarily go together.




Thank you for repeating the point I was making to you. Since I was already telling you, perhaps I should feign an assumption that repeating obediently to me indicates that you have indeed learned the message I taught you. Good boy.

What people say should be judged on its merits, not the age of the person saying it. While there is a positive correlation between age and wisdom, I have found a strong negative correlation between claims of wisdom by virtue of age, and actual wisdom. This concept works with many positive traits; people usually let such things speak for themselves and only boast out of insecurity/inadequacy.


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## over9k (13 October 2020)

Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is _going _to happen.

And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally _most _of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward. 

This is not complicated.


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## Sdajii (13 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is _going _to happen.
> 
> And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally _most _of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.
> 
> This is not complicated.




This is a valid point, but it's more complicated than you assert.

Looking at the most obvious example I can think of (iron ore prices and the 2008 crash), the price of iron ore predictably tumbled in 2008, took years to recover but never reached its previous high. Today 12 years later the price of iron ore is sitting at around a six year high which is still less than half the price it was before the 2008 crash (inflation adjusted - a little over half the peak price ignoring inflation).

There's definitely validity in the one aspect of the economy you're talking about and it will definitely mitigate the problem to a significant extent, but it won't be the thing which shapes the overall picture.


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## over9k (13 October 2020)

It might help to elaborate...


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## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You bring your age up again as though it is a default for wisdom or experience, but such things don't come automatically with age, even if there is a correlation. You seem to think that since you're old you must be correct. This is not the case.



In today's paper, just in case you need more confirmation, the IMF agree with me. But hey I'm o.k if you don't, we are both just using our experience in our reasoning.








						Australia to escape worst of recession but faces debt mountain: IMF
					

The IMF has upgraded its forecasts for the Australian economy but much still hinges on the creation of a safe and widely available vaccine.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:

_The coronavirus recession will not be as deep as feared for Australia, the International Monetary Fund believes, but it will take years to recover with ongoing high levels of unemployment and government debt.

In its world economic outlook released overnight, the fund said it expects the Australian economy to contract by 4.2 per cent this year before growing by 3 per cent in 2021.

The forecasts are a sharp improvement on what the IMF was expecting in April, during the depths of nation-wide health restrictions, when it believed the economy would shrink by 6.7 per cent before growing by 6.1 per cen_t.

The better growth outlook translates into an improved forecast for the jobs market. Unemployment is tipped to reach 6.9 per cent this year and then increase to 7.7 per cent through 2021. In April, the IMF was forecasting unemployment to reach 8.9 per cent next year.


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> In today's paper, just in case you need more confirmation, the IMF agree with me. But hey I'm o.k if you don't, we are both just using our experience in our reasoning.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Oh, you cherry picked an online article which agrees with you! Hey, there's no comeback to that, I mean, it's from the SMH, an entirely non partisan news outlet which serves as a beacon of truth and integrity, a veritably fountain of infallible information. Clearly you are all seeing and almighty, oh wise one.


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## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Oh, you cherry picked an online article which agrees with you! Hey, there's no comeback to that, I mean, it's from the SMH, an entirely non partisan news outlet which serves as a beacon of truth and integrity, a veritably fountain of infallible information. Clearly you are all seeing and almighty, oh wise one.



Look mate, I personally don't give a rats ar$e one way or the other.
I put forward my thoughts, you put forward yours, they are only thoughts. it isn't as though either of us has a glass ball mate, so no need to start with the personal crap.
So rant on and knock yourself out, I wont bother engaging in discussion with you, obviously you prefer an echo chamber. 👍


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## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is _going _to happen.
> 
> And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally _most _of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.
> 
> This is not complicated.



Very true 9k, the mass shift globally to renewables should also add to the infrastructure spend, as a lot of the renewable devices use a different resource mix than has been usual in the past. For example a 13GW solar farm will possibly use a lot more aluminum than the coal fired stations they are replacing, also i would think BEV's will be upping the aluminum content to reduce weight, which in turn will marginally reduce the steel content. The steel sector will have plenty of work as you say with the infrastructure build, it should be an interesting 2021 IMO, especially if a vaccine is developed.


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Look mate, I personally don't give a rats ar$e one way or the other.
> I put forward my thoughts, you put forward yours, they are only thoughts. it isn't as though either of us has a glass ball mate, so no need to start with the personal crap.
> So rant on and knock yourself out, I wont bother engaging in discussion with you, obviously you prefer an echo chamber. 👍




Haha! Yes, your wisdom shines ever brighter!

If I liked echo chambers I clearly wouldn't be engaging with people who completely disagree with me. I'd probably be stating that I will no longer bother engaging with people who disagree with me. Oh, wait, I think I just saw someone doing exactly that!

Maybe if you live a bit longer you'll gain enough wisdom not to get riled up and demonstrate hypocrisy when someone disagrees with you and doesn't buy your empty attempts at validating yourself.


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## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Haha! Yes, your wisdom shines ever brighter!
> 
> If I liked echo chambers I clearly wouldn't be engaging with people who completely disagree with me. I'd probably be stating that I will no longer bother engaging with people who disagree with me. Oh, wait, I think I just saw someone doing exactly that!
> 
> Maybe if you live a bit longer you'll gain enough wisdom not to get riled up and demonstrate hypocrisy when someone disagrees with you and doesn't buy your empty attempts at validating yourself.



Here is a few others who disagree with your pessimism. 
By the way, i hope to live a bit longer and gain some more wisdom, hopefully you do the same. 👍 




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Here is a few others who disagree with your pessimism.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




You realise the internet is really really big and you can find as many articles as you like backing up any position you want, right? I'm not going to sit here and cherry pick articles talking about the most extreme doom and gloom predictions and say "See? There are all these articles online saying X, so X must be true!"

Four years ago your same sources were saying it was impossible for Trump to win. Early this year they were saying lockdowns were essential for public health and safety in order to dramatically lessen the amount of harm done (this was obviously untrue and I'm surprised that now even the WHO acknowledges that they have caused and are causing more harm than good). Even consensus in the mainstream media does not indicate fact, but cherry picking is just meaningless.

If you are so incredibly wise, why don't you articulate your own position rather than just cherry picking online articles the way today's naive adolescents do?


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## over9k (14 October 2020)

Then there's the political edge to things as the markets are starting to price a biden win in - TAN (renewable energy ETF) and CGC (marijuana producer) have both shot up in response.


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## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You realise the internet is really really big and you can find as many articles as you like backing up any position you want, right? I'm not going to sit here and cherry pick articles talking about the most extreme doom and gloom predictions and say "See? There are all these articles online saying X, so X must be true!"



O.K on what basis do you think this recession is going to be the worst Australia has faced?


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Then there's the political edge to things as the markets are starting to price a biden win in - TAN (renewable energy ETF) and CGC (marijuana producer) have both shot up in response.




Marijuana and renewable energy would be among the very few things which would benefit from a Biden win, although if Biden was to win the economy would take an incredible tumble and even those stocks would be dragged down.


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> O.K on what basis do you think this recession is going to be the worst Australia has faced?




I didn't claim it would. You claimed to be so amazingly wise, you should at least be able to refrain from putting claims into other people's mouths.


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## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> I didn't claim it would. You claimed to be so amazingly wise, you should at least be able to refrain from putting claims into other people's mouths.



That's good, we are in agreement then.


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## over9k (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Marijuana and renewable energy would be among the very few things which would benefit from a Biden win, although if Biden was to win the economy would take an incredible tumble and even those stocks would be dragged down.



Well the odds are 3:1 against trump and the market overall is increasing along with renewables & marijuana on a tear way above the market, so if you were correct we'd see either both slumping or the market overall increasing but renewables & marijuana going nowhere, and neither is occurring.


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## IFocus (14 October 2020)

On average the US economy and markets have preformed better under Democrat presidents than Republicans although with the unfunded stimulus spending reduced revenue (Trumps an economic  genus) and now spending on the pandemic amounting to an extortionary pile of debt  all bets will be off for Biden should he win.


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## Smurf1976 (14 October 2020)

I'll simply say that anyone who is certain they're right is certain to be wrong sooner or later.

None of us have crystal balls and there's always an element of doubt in any prediction as to what's going to happen.


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## over9k (14 October 2020)

Well a lot of infrastructure bills have already been passed sooooo


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Well the odds are 3:1 against trump and the market overall is increasing along with renewables & marijuana on a tear way above the market, so if you were correct we'd see either both slumping or the market overall increasing but renewables & marijuana going nowhere, and neither is occurring.




Do you honestly have that short a memory? Do you not remember 2016?

Since it seems necessary, in 2016 the supposed odds against Trump were far worse and all the king's horses and all the king's men, especially all of the media, were absolutely adamant that Trump would lose and a big part of that was that if he won, inevitably the stock market would crash severely. Trump did win and the market immediately rallied. Incidentally, in 2016 I bet two grand on Trump winning.

The mainstream media is as honest as ever and even you may have detected the slightest desire to paint Trump in a bad light. The market pays more attention to reality. If Biden wins, the market absolutely positively will crash. For anyone with any sense of economics and any ability to think independently rather than obediently and blindly follow the mainstream media, it is overwhelmingly obvious that the Democrats have policies which will be catastrophic for the economy. People can vote however they want, voting is free, most voters have no clue, but the market will tell a more realistic story.


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## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That's good, we are in agreement then.




If by in agreement you mean that we both agree that is it not absolutely certain that Australia is about to experience worse hardship than it did in the 1930s, then yes, specifically on that point, we do agree. That's a pretty desperate reach for common ground, but it does seem that you were fairly desperate to end the conversation, so I'll let you have it.


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## over9k (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Do you honestly have that short a memory? Do you not remember 2016?
> 
> Since it seems necessary, in 2016 the supposed odds against Trump were far worse and all the king's horses and all the king's men, especially all of the media, were absolutely adamant that Trump would lose and a big part of that was that if he won, inevitably the stock market would crash severely. Trump did win and the market immediately rallied. Incidentally, in 2016 I bet two grand on Trump winning.
> 
> The mainstream media is as honest as ever and even you may have detected the slightest desire to paint Trump in a bad light. The market pays more attention to reality. If Biden wins, the market absolutely positively will crash. For anyone with any sense of economics and any ability to think independently rather than obediently and blindly follow the mainstream media, it is overwhelmingly obvious that the Democrats have policies which will be catastrophic for the economy. People can vote however they want, voting is free, most voters have no clue, but the market will tell a more realistic story.




You've missed the point again.

If the market thought trump was going to win, cannabis & renewables would not be running, but the stock market would be. If it thought biden was going to, according to you, the market would be down but cannabis & renewables would be up.

Instead, BOTH are up. So either the market thinks trump is good for cannabis & renewables, or it thinks biden is good for the economy.


I, too, won a lot of money in 2016. About 40x what you did in fact. I won so much money that all the betting sites locked and blocked my accounts and I had to get the northern territory gaming commission involved in a 6 month long legal battle to make them pay me my winnings. Today, there is just one site left in the entire country that I still have an account with - I've been banned from/booted off all of the others for taking them to the cleaners.  


Stop thinking you're the only person around here that knows anything.


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## qldfrog (14 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> True, but wisdom and age beat youth and inexperience.



This definitively applies when the world remains relatively stable, 
Veterans of wwi were right in their ww2 forecast,
Veterans of ww2 got it wrong all the way with the ussr ww3 in waiting
The most experienced and older employees are now often dinosaurs in a eorld of IT high speed etc.
Wisdom still applies in philosophy, human nature etc, but for science technology and now economy, the wisdom of an older Australian who has not seen a recession since the Keating years is to be taken with a grain of salt.moreover, a quick travel to your capital city.. Hobart excepted ? 
will quickly show you the average Aussie is now very different from the one 50y ago.
Note that i have the highest respect for both @sptrawler and @SirRumpole..and i am not a spring chicken myself.
:-(


----------



## Sdajii (14 October 2020)

over9k said:


> You've missed the point again.
> 
> If the market thought trump was going to win, cannabis & renewables would not be running, but the stock market would be. If it thought biden was going to, according to you, the market would be down but cannabis & renewables would be up.
> 
> Instead, BOTH are up. So either the market thinks trump is good for cannabis & renewables, or it thinks biden is good for the economy.




Or the people in those specific industry predictably have the typical human condition of tunnel vision. Those in love with weed etc are into the hype of Biden leading the polls. This isn't necessarily what all people think. This may surprise you, and I actually say that seriously because you're acting like you don't realise it, but different demographics can have different predictions!



> I, too, won a lot of money in 2016. About 40x what you did in fact. I won so much money that all the betting sites locked and blocked my accounts and I had to get the northern territory gaming commission involved in a 6 month long legal battle to make them pay me my winnings. Today, there is just one site left in the entire country that I still have an account with - I've been banned from/booted off all of the others for taking them to the cleaners.




I was quite openly talking about it at the time, much to the mockery of most people. If you wish to disbelieve, that's your choice.



> Stop thinking you're the only person around here that knows anything.




Do you think I am insane enough to think everyone believes what you do? There are plenty of people in this world including several taking part in this thread who know plenty, some know more than me on this topic, and pretty much all on many other topics. The fact that I'm disagreeing with you in one discussion doesn't mean I disagree with everyone on all things and your assertion of anything else is just more absurd nonsense from you. What a peculiar and unfortunate mindset you have, which makes you think that if someone disagrees with you personally on one topic they think they are the only person who knows anything about anything.


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## over9k (14 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Or the people in those specific industry predictably have the typical human condition of tunnel vision. Those in love with weed etc are into the hype of Biden leading the polls. This isn't necessarily what all people think. This may surprise you, and I actually say that seriously because you're acting like you don't realise it, but different demographics can have different predictions!



Bong heads are not exactly known for their investing skills (or in fact, having any money to invest at all). Neither are tree hugging save the earth greens voting loons. 


> I was quite openly talking about it at the time, much to the mockery of most people. If you wish to disbelieve, that's your choice.



Never said I didn't believe you, and I don't know why you're saying I didn't. 

My point was that you're not the cleverest person in the room like you clearly think you are. 2k on trump to win in 2016 is _nothing. _


> Do you think I am insane enough to think everyone believes what you do? There are plenty of people in this world including several taking part in this thread who know plenty, some know more than me on this topic, and pretty much all on many other topics. The fact that I'm disagreeing with you in one discussion doesn't mean I disagree with everyone on all things and your assertion of anything else is just more absurd nonsense from you. What a peculiar and unfortunate mindset you have, which makes you think that if someone disagrees with you personally on one topic they think they are the only person who knows anything about anything.



Your posts absolutely drip with conceit, and you argue with basically everyone about basically everything and do so in the snarkiest way possible. Don't try & pretend like you don't.


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## SirRumpole (14 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> This definitively applies when the world remains relatively stable,
> Veterans of wwi were right in their ww2 forecast,
> Veterans of ww2 got it wrong all the way with the ussr ww3 in waiting
> The most experienced and older employees are now often dinosaurs in a eorld of IT high speed etc.
> ...




I certainly agree about technology and the young. They have it all over us oldies.

However a lot of the young have never seen a recession, or at least haven't had to find work during one, and it's pretty evident that some of them are spoiled and think that everything has to go their way all the time.

And before people say the recession is due to covid, we were heading that way anyway. Near zero or negative interest rates are not a sign of a healthy economy, either here or worldwide.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> moreover, a quick travel to your capital city.. Hobart excepted ?
> will quickly show you the average Aussie is now very different from the one 50y ago.



Something to note is that there's basically nobody who's "average" in every way but to the extent such a person exists, they're a woman born in 1983.

Yes 1983. Half the current population of Australia wasn't born when Hawke was elected PM and Australia won the America's Cup.

A definite issue I do see though is that we're at the point now where quite a few managers and even people like board members and CEO's lack business experience in anything other than good times. Anyone under ~47 years old was still a child last time we had a recession and pretty much no current senior manager would have held a senior management position back then.

As such, our corporate boards are largely filled with people who have a lot in common with P plate drivers who've never seen a real car crash or novice share traders who've heard of previous market crashes but think there'll never be another one. As they all know, it's perfectly safe to drive at 150km around a blind corner and it's just fine to have highly leveraged exposure to tech stocks because nothing can go wrong. Until it does......

I'd be surprised if there aren't businesses out there, probably quite a few, which are ill prepared for a downturn due to that lack of experience.

My personal view is that experience and youth both bring something of value and it's wise to listen carefully to what everyone has to say and consider it. Young people often point out the elephant in the room that everyone else had somehow failed to notice. The old ones tend to be far more aware of what can go wrong because they've seen it happen.


----------



## qldfrog (14 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> My personal view is that experience and youth both bring something of value and it's wise to listen carefully to what everyone has to say and consider it. Young people often point out the elephant in the room that everyone else had somehow failed to notice. The old ones tend to be far more aware of what can go wrong because they've seen it happen.



that is what I try to point:
 Australia is specific in that many of the old wise voices come from people who have a very naive view of the world and have live a sheltered life: economically blissfull, no war or terrorism of any real scale:
we make heroes of people who experience DV or PTSD, we see Covid as a grand thread.
Our wise men have hardly seen drama, unless it is personal like illness, asssault, but nothing of national significance
For example the view of guns in this country demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of weapons -> except for present and past members of the police and army, very few australians have ever hold a machine gun or military equipment, nor wondered if they will be in a front line next week potentially to kill or be killed.And armed forces here are ridiculously small in numbers
I have a feeling that an average white (or black) 20y old farmer from South Africa to take an example has much more knowledge and wisdom of the world than a senior in Oz, in human behaviour, economy and in a way philosophy
The blissfullness ignorance of world affairs and naive view of Australians (in geopolitics/history) is a delight to live among until you hit real world issues covid immigration islam international trade, chinese expansion, you name it ; this is where you start banging your head against the wall 
have all a great night


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> The blissfullness ignorance of world affairs and naive view of Australians (in geopolitics/history) is a delight to live among until you hit real world issues covid immigration islam international trade, chinese expansion, you name it ; this is where you start banging your head against the wall



Agreed there's often a naivety among Australians but to be fair, it's not by any means unique to this country given that to considerable extent that naivety takes the form of following someone else.

Someone else doesn't know what they're doing and nor does the Aussie who copies them. Both are bad.

I say that not as a political comment but as an economic one. A lot of business management in Australia is just generic "cut & paste" from overseas where it didn't work either. Not all obviously but it's certainly a thing, it happens, hence whatever problems emerge somewhere else tend to show up at least to some extent here.


----------



## sptrawler (14 October 2020)

Another way of looking at the issue is from an investment perspective, those who feel we are in the midst of a financial catastrophe, probably have either sold out of the market or not bought in. 
Those who feel the stimulus and buoyant raw material demand may see us through, have probably bought in to the correction, time will tell which was the prudent course of action.
The ASX hit 4,400 on March 27, today it is around 6,200, it will be interesting to see where it is in 6-12 months time.


----------



## qldfrog (15 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Another way of looking at the issue is from an investment perspective, those who feel we are in the midst of a financial catastrophe, probably have either sold out of the market or not bought in.
> Those who feel the stimulus and buoyant raw material demand may see us through, have probably bought in to the correction, time will tell which was the prudent course of action.
> The ASX hit 4,400 on March 27, today it is around 6,200, it will be interesting to see where it is in 6-12 months time.



As long as you can find non chinese steel mills to buy our coal and iron ore
Australian minerals will sell at a discount,in 6 months,i bet mire on Vale (Brazil) then Rio or worse BHP just because of China politics


----------



## qldfrog (15 October 2020)

BHP confirms Chinese customers have cancelled orders for Australian coal
					

The mining giant says it has received deferment requests from Chinese coal customers, confirming reports China has put a freeze on accepting Australian coal.




					www.abc.net.au
				



This is what i expect in the coming months.economic leverage


----------



## Sdajii (15 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Bong heads are not exactly known for their investing skills (or in fact, having any money to invest at all). Neither are tree hugging save the earth greens voting loons.




The concept is exactly the same for all industries. I'm not exclusively talking about stoned out morons. Look at the oil industry. At any given time you gave people believing the price will go up and the price will go down. Obviously the people who drill are the ones willing and able to spend the most money, and they're the ones who are the most bullish on the price of oil. If you aren't in that mindset you aren't drilling. So, the whole industry is biased towards people who are the most bullish. They may be among the people who know the industry best, but there's a massive bias which is why that industry tends to be overconfident. Same principle with weed.



> My point was that you're not the cleverest person in the room like you clearly think you are. 2k on trump to win in 2016 is _nothing. _





I don't claim to be or think I am the most clever person in the room. I do think there are specific issues here which I have a better grasp on than you do. That's not to say I know them better than everyone else in this thread, and it's not to say anything about me or you in a general sense.

My only point about betting on Trump (the first online bet I'd ever made, I'm not really a gambler), was that the overwhelming majority of the mainstream media and the vast majority of all people willing to speak openly about the topic said Trump had no chance of winning, despite the fact that it was very clear he was going to win. It shows how detached from reality the mainstream narrative can be, even when that narrative is very clear. I'm not saying I made an incredible fortune on that investment, I'm just saying that clearly I had full confidence in it despite the entire community narrative being the opposite, and you were basically ranting along similar lines and making a similar mistake because of the social/psychological phenomenon.



> Your posts absolutely drip with conceit, and you argue with basically everyone about basically everything and do so in the snarkiest way possible. Don't try & pretend like you don't.




Again, you fail to see the difference between you as an individual and "basically everyone". I don't argue with the people I agree with, I don't argue with the people I know are or assume do or are likely to know more than I do. I don't argue about topics I have no grasp of. I certainly have a lot less respect for you than I do most people and accordingly will have a different attitude towards you from the one I have to most other people. I do think a lot of attitudes displayed on the topics discussed in this thread are absolutely disgusting, shameful and naive, so on this topic. We are literally seeing a global narrative which endorses decisions which will potentially cause more death and suffering than anything else in the history of our species, and certainly anything since WWII, and many people refuse to see the situation clearly despite how obvious it is. Sadly, most people follow the mainstream narratives rather than what is very clear and easy to see with any amount of intelligence and independent thought.


----------



## over9k (15 October 2020)

It's not that you disagree with people, it's that you don't actually have a discussion or even a respectful debate with them - it's just conceited snark the entire time. There's about a dozen quotable instances just in the past few pages and they are by no means unique to responding to me. 

You're a hard guy to talk to.


----------



## over9k (15 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something to note is that there's basically nobody who's "average" in every way but to the extent such a person exists, they're a woman born in 1983.
> 
> Yes 1983. Half the current population of Australia wasn't born when Hawke was elected PM and Australia won the America's Cup.
> 
> ...



Great post. I'll add the caveat that if you can spot something that's different this time then you can explain why history _won't _repeat (same as if you can see what's the same or even identify the same thing which caused it last time then you know it's going to occur this time) and thus make a lot of money.

I say this because a lot of people are comparing now to the .com bubble of 20 years ago and there are some major, _fundamental _differences this time.


----------



## Junior (15 October 2020)

re Trump now versus Trump 2016.  There are massive differences.

In terms of polling, Biden has a far greater lead over Trump, compared with the lead Clinton held at this stage of the race in 2016.  Yes, the polls were 'wrong' in 2016.  That does not mean they are automatically wrong now.  Even allowing for a big margin of error, Biden wins in a landslide.
The US economy was strong and growing in 2016, now the economy is very weak.  People are out of work, more are on welfare than ever before, and they are scared of the virus.
In 2016, Trump promised how great America would be under his administration, we've now seen 4 years of Trump, America is weak and Trump's promises of a great future have not materialised.  He's had 4 years already, and America is divided and the economy smashed. 
This year, Trump faced his first real crisis in the form of a global pandemic.  The US has dealt with this crisis worse than any developed nation on the planet.  Even Trump himself contracted the virus and was hospitalised.  If you look at the state-by-state figures now, in terms of new COVID cases per day, astonishingly the top 20 are all Republican-leaning states.  They are now the hardest hit with this virus.  If you live in these states, chances are you've either been very sick with COVID, or know someone who has.  Chances are you know someone who has been killed by the virus.
Biden is not Clinton.  Many voters rage-voted for Trump, as a protest against Clinton, a protest against the status quo.  Biden is not attracting that level of rage and distrust as we saw with Clinton in 2016.  We've now seen the alternative to the status quo for the past 4 years, and it's an absolute circus.
Policy.  Does anyone care about policy for this election?  The Trump campaign doesn't even have articulated policies!


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

Junior said:


> re Trump now versus Trump 2016.  There are massive differences.
> 
> In terms of polling, Biden has a far greater lead over Trump, compared with the lead Clinton held at this stage of the race in 2016.  Yes, the polls were 'wrong' in 2016.  That does not mean they are automatically wrong now.  Even allowing for a big margin of error, Biden wins in a landslide.
> The US economy was strong and growing in 2016, now the economy is very weak.  People are out of work, more are on welfare than ever before, and they are scared of the virus.
> ...



Great balanced analysis junior, simple to the point and un emotional.
The only thing Trump has in his favour IMO, is his known stance against China dominance, it will be interesting to see how much sway that has in the outcome.
From an Australian perspective, as this is about the economic impact of the virus, the Chinese since the fallout from the virus have shown they don't hold inter country loyalties very highly. 
The embargoes and threatened embargoes on various Australian product, shows clearly they are willing to flex their new found financial muscle, which as @qldfrog could have a big impact on our recovery.


----------



## over9k (15 October 2020)

This is worth a watch and then a second one. He says an awful lot in a very short space of time.


----------



## satanoperca (15 October 2020)

Very interesting.


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

Another sector, that the recession has forced to have a reality check.








						Eddie McGuire addresses 'bombshell' claims about AFL future
					

Eddie McGuire has hosed down speculation a number of AFL clubs are on the chopping block.




					au.news.yahoo.com
				



From the article:
_“There are clubs that honestly believe that 18 teams is too many in the current financial circumstances,” Wilson explained_.

With a population of 25million there is only so much money to go around, if some clubs merged the AFL may find that they fill grounds with spectators, and they could then drop the admission price.
The current situation of quarter full grounds, means they have to keep jacking up the admission price, to finance 18 teams.
I know I stopped going to the footy because admission prices became stupid.
The lockdowns and financial squeeze, may be bringing in some home truths.


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

over9k said:


> This is worth a watch and then a second one. He says an awful lot in a very short space of time.



Great find 9k, sums up the situation well, concise to the point.


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## Smurf1976 (15 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Another sector, that the recession has forced to have a reality check.



A classic example of an industry that would be a very long way down the list of things most would think of when discussing economics but which has been hit nonetheless.

There will be many more like that no doubt. Things that just wouldn't get a mention in any discussion of economics but which will suffer significant impacts due to the broader circumstances.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 October 2020)

over9k said:


> This is worth a watch and then a second one. He says an awful lot in a very short space of time.




what is that guy doing out in the wilds?


----------



## over9k (15 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Very interesting.



Yeah, here's the graph of the gfc round two that your sig is talking about/gut is telling you is coming:




The world was supposed to have several years of both time and income to plan & deal with this stalking horse (or, monster) but coronavirus has nuked both all the income and all the time we had to plan/transition into it.

I'm not being funny when I say that the demographic cliff that the world is about to jump off means that coronavirus plus pre-existing national debts are going to take an entire generation to pay off. We were headed for a solid decade of pain/weren't going to get back to relative "normal" until the 2030's as it was and coronavirus has given us the double whammy of both a couple of years' of lost income plus 5-10 years' more national debt to pay off.

It is no exaggeration to say that it won't be until the 2040's before we can even think about returning to what we've considered to be normal for the past several generations and that assumes a rebound in birth rates after coronavirus.

Without it, we transition into what is diplomatically being called "post growth economies". In other words, a state of perpetual contraction as both debt is paid off and populations shrink in tandem which is literally unable to reverse without anything other than a reversal of birth rates and therefore in a _generational _timeframe.

Australia along with the U.S is one of just a handful of countries on earth that doesn't have this debt + demographics monster coming due very soon so it's going to be relatively (RELATIVELY) ok:


----------



## over9k (15 October 2020)

As an aside, the U.S graph above combined with the E.U graph here:




Also shows why britain got brexit right - the EU is *not* the trading partner of the future, america is. Now, the yanks import vanishingly little as a percentage of GDP, but at least there's a market there to crack, which is more than the EU has going for it.


----------



## satanoperca (15 October 2020)

It is fascinating, the world is changing due to aging population that spends/consume less, but the same group of people cost more to keep alive.

Along comes a virus, that knocks of this demographic and what do we do, throw $$$$$ at saving them, at the real cost of the consumer base, those under 40.


----------



## over9k (15 October 2020)

The first world has been beholden to the baby boomers' whims since the mid 90's. It's simple demographics and they have outvoted the rest of us.

To be more specific, they've voted to **** us all over. Even now, the boomers are at the peak of their working and therefore taxpaying lives so tax revenues are at the highest they've ever been and so now would be the ideal time to start paying debt down. But the boomers don't want to pay for it and there's enough of them to simply vote for it to be someone else's problem, and so they have. Hence the massive deficits the government is running/the absolute joke the last budget was.

You can also see this politically through time:

In the 90's/early 2000's the boomers all had massive mortgages, so john howard ran on a "interest rates will always be lower under a liberal government" message, and was the 2nd longest reigning PM as a result of it.

Then after inflating a massive housing bubble that krudd & co kept going into the 2010's that made the boomers filthy stinking rich at the expense of their children & grandchildren it was "well nobody's ever complained to me about their house price going up" (like housing getting more expensive is a good thing or something, which it obviously only is if you already own one or even several investments)

Then just before coronavirus it when boomers were all at the peak of their careers before retirement and therefore peak of their taxpaying days it was "historic income tax cuts" and finally, only when being left to rot in nursing homes wasn't too far off for the baby boomers did we _finally_ have a "royal commission into aged care". Not a problem for the boomers' parents/my grandparents, but it's an issue now! 

Again, this is not complex - the boomers have had the demographic weight to and have actively decided to vote for nothing other than their own self interests for their entire lives without giving a second thought as to who's going to have to pay for it (i.e their children and their grandchildren) and only once enough of them are dead around 2030-2040 or so will the rest of us be able to finally start cleaning (and paying) up the mess that they're leaving for everyone _else _to pay for.

All coronavirus has done is make that pain about 50% worse than it was already going to be. To be clear here, this was _always _coming, it's just going to be so much worse now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 October 2020)

over9k said:


> This is worth a watch and then a second one. He says an awful lot in a very short space of time.



Sounds pretty right to me and what many have been saying right from the start.

The 2019 version of "normal" is not coming back. There's a future but it's different to the past - we're going to be making more ourselves and relying on others less.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> we're going to be making more ourselves and relying on others less.




I hope so, but the precedent set by previous and the current Liberal government is to "let the market decide", which in reality means doing very little for ourselves and importing cheap foreign junk.


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

over9k said:


> The first world has been beholden to the baby boomers' whims since the mid 90's. It's simple demographics and they have outvoted the rest of us.
> 
> To be more specific, they've voted to **** us all over. Even now, the boomers are at the peak of their working and therefore taxpaying lives so tax revenues are at the highest they've ever been and so now would be the ideal time to start paying debt down. But the boomers don't want to pay for it and there's enough of them to simply vote for it to be someone else's problem, and so they have. Hence the massive deficits the government is running/the absolute joke the last budget was.
> 
> ...



Excellent summation, the only problem is, the baby boomers will soon pass away and leave everything to the next generation, who really haven't proven to be great workers.
So how do we stop the next generation, spending the rest of their lives, with their feet up spending the inheritance?
Keep them running around in circles, finding excuses for the government to take it of the parents, before the kids get it.
Magic, dance Maria.
Pretty simple really, re introduce a 40% death duty, the old get to enjoy the efforts of their labour and the government gets 40% of the estate.
Works in most other countries, the unions suggested it to silly Billy last election.


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I hope so, but the precedent set by previous and the current Liberal government is to "let the market decide", which in reality means doing very little for ourselves and importing cheap foreign junk.



Jeez Rumpy you can't let it go can you, maybe they should re introduce tariffs that Hawke and Keating dismantled.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Jeez Rumpy you can't let it go can you, maybe they should re introduce tariffs that Hawke and Keating dismantled.



Tariffs for the sake of it I'm personally not at all keen on but tariffs to offset cheating by others seems entirely fair and reasonable.


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Tariffs for the sake of it I'm personally not at all keen on but tariffs to offset cheating by others seems entirely fair and reasonable.



Absolutely they were there to protect Australian industries and jobs, Labor signed up to the Lima agreement, Hawke and Keating started to dismantle the tariffs and the rest is history.
Unfortunately the story has been massaged with the passing of time, to suit the mythical belief that some have, that certain parties are looking after certain sectors.
A bit like a Hollywood western, the bad guys wear black and the good guys wear white, when in reality the pilgrims are being robbed by both.
It is just one circles to the right and the other circles to the left.lol


----------



## SirRumpole (15 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Jeez Rumpy you can't let it go can you, maybe they should re introduce tariffs that Hawke and Keating dismantled.




Look at our "free trade" agreements and as what has been the benefit for us ?

A massive trade deficit with the US for one, who subsidise their farmers while ours have to slog along with little government assistance.

Free trade ? Like hell.


----------



## sptrawler (15 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Look at our "free trade" agreements and as what has been the benefit for us ?
> 
> A massive trade deficit with the US for one, who subsidise their farmers while ours have to slog along with little government assistance.
> 
> Free trade ? Like hell.



Same horse different rider.lol


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Look at our "free trade" agreements and as what has been the benefit for us ?
> 
> A massive trade deficit with the US for one, who subsidise their farmers while ours have to slog along with little government assistance.
> 
> Free trade ? Like hell.



My last statement might have been too cryptic, but what is the difference between a 'free trade' agreement today, and a removal of tariffs on imported gear from third world countries in the 1980's when labour cost was zero over there? I find it difficult to find the line, but hey I try to be objective.
I guess it depends who is on the rostrum, banging the tamborine.lol


----------



## over9k (16 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Excellent summation, the only problem is, the baby boomers will soon pass away and leave everything to the next generation, who really haven't proven to be great workers.
> So how do we stop the next generation, spending the rest of their lives, with their feet up spending the inheritance?
> Keep them running around in circles, finding excuses for the government to take it of the parents, before the kids get it.
> Magic, dance Maria.
> ...



You'd get absolute uproar. Boomers don't want the government taking money they'd leave to their kids and the kids need the inheritance money. No chance of it happening.


----------



## over9k (16 October 2020)

Cross-posted from another thread:




over9k said:


> There's about a 2ish week lead time from infection to positive result last I checked.
> 
> Don't be surprised if biden or harris or whomever tests positive soon as we all know that all the advisors, staff etc rub shoulders with each other constantly. Not saying it's going to happen, but there's a very realistic probability that it does.





And wouldn't you know it:




Harris tested negative yesterday, has suspended all travel.


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2020)

over9k said:


> You'd get absolute uproar. Boomers don't want the government taking money they'd leave to their kids and the kids need the inheritance money. No chance of it happening.



No they wouldn't, I know for a fact most worked hard for what they have and are helping their kids.
What you are saying is those that have saved and have money in retirement shouldn't be supported, I agree and actually they aren't, nothing is free if you have money in retirement. If you have money and end up requiring care it costs, if you have nothing, it comes out of your government pension.
So I have trouble understanding your angle.
But if it is because you are worried those who don't get a pension and don't get free aged care should be paying more, I'm sure they would be happy to give 40% of what they haven't spent to the government.
I really don't follow where you are coming from.
Everything is means tested when you retire, if you have FA you pay FA, if you have money you don't get a pension and you don't get free accommodation in aged care, you don't get cheap licences, cheap rates, cheap drugs.
Why don't they have a referendum on death duties, I bet old people would vote yes.lol
Think about it, why would the baby boomers be hell bent on leaving their money to their kids, when the kids have the same attitude as what you have.lol weird reasoning.


----------



## over9k (16 October 2020)

I wasn't giving you my opinion on the policy, just saying that it'll never happen. As I've tried to point out a lot earlier in the thread, we're here to discuss what we think will happen, not what we think should happen. Hence my previous comment to a previous argument between two members not mattering on account of the fact that the politicians are not going to change their tune on it. 

There's just no way they'll ever get a decent inheritance tax or equivalent passed. Not a hope. No point even thinking about it, no matter how much of a good idea it might be.


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2020)

over9k said:


> You'd get absolute uproar. Boomers don't want the government taking money they'd leave to their kids and the kids need the inheritance money. No chance of it happening.





over9k said:


> I wasn't giving you my opinion on the policy, just saying that it'll never happen. As I've tried to point out a lot earlier in the thread, we're here to discuss what we think will happen, not what we think should happen. Hence my previous comment to a previous argument between two members not mattering on account of the fact that the politicians are not going to change their tune on it.
> 
> There's just no way they'll ever get a decent inheritance tax or equivalent passed. Not a hope. No point even thinking about it, no matter how much of a good idea it might be.



And I was responding to your post that the baby boomers are screwing over the next generation, which I'm sure isn't happening, as I said if you have anything you get nothing.
If you have nothing you get welfare.
From personal experience, I can tell you that I would highly recommend to my kids, that unless you can amass at least $3m you are better going for a pension.
Sad really.
Just my opinion, watching my self funded MIL, my government funded mother, and my self funded self.
10 years ago I would have said exactly the opposite.lol
So I hope they keep pushing toward penalising endeavour, then we will see how much it cost the next generation, when their parents have saved FA.


----------



## over9k (16 October 2020)

The fact that your house isn't counted in your assets is a major problem. It effectively allows you to yank all (or at least, a lot) of money out of super, buy a palace with it, and then have the system pay you/pay your living expenses while you live in it.

But again, that's not going to change either. From my perspective, it basically just means that I inherit more whilst having higher income taxes to pay the public debt off later. It's nice that my grandmother hasn't had to sell her house to fund her retirement (meaning I'm going to inherit a lot more from her), but at the same time, _someone _is paying the taxes that fund her pension, and considering that that pension is currently being funded with public debt, that someone is going to be me (eventually).


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's a future but it's different to the past - we're going to be making more ourselves and relying on others less



Adding to that but another thing I don't see returning to 2019's "normal" anytime soon is international travel.

In 2019 someone in Australia living in a regional area or a state that doesn't have direct flights could have flown to Sydney or Melbourne on a domestic flight, boarded an international flight to Doha or Dubai, and boarded a second flight to London.

Even allowing for check-in times and flights not aligning well so some "dead" time, ultimately they could still go from their home in Australia to being on the streets of London within 36 hours including a taxi to the airport in Australia and using the train at the London end. Less if they don't need the domestic flight to get to Sydney etc. And all for not much more than a week's wages for an ordinary run of the mill worker.

I'm not expecting that to return anytime soon. Just think of everything that's involved and the issues both with the pandemic itself and the economic effects.

If you've got unlimited funds and are in no hurry then you'll be flying in due course but there's an awful lot of things which need to fall into place to get cheap and frequent travel back in action. The whole concept of low cost air travel relies upon there being a large volume of passengers which creates a "chicken and egg" problem since half full planes are only profitable at much higher ticket prices which then deter passengers from traveling in the first place thus compounding the situation.

Someday yes bit it'll take a while.

Note that I've only mentioned London since it's a place that significant numbers of people go to and I had to pick somewhere. Same concept though applies pretty much everywhere that's a long way away.


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2020)

over9k said:


> The fact that your house isn't counted in your assets is a major problem. It effectively allows you to yank all (or at least, a lot) of money out of super, buy a palace with it, and then have the system pay you/pay your living expenses while you live in it.
> 
> But again, that's not going to change either. From my perspective, it basically just means that I inherit more whilst having higher income taxes to pay the public debt off later. It's nice that my grandmother hasn't had to sell her house to fund her retirement (meaning I'm going to inherit a lot more from her), but at the same time, _someone _is paying the taxes that fund her pension, and considering that that pension is currently being funded with public debt, that someone is going to be me (eventually).



I agree with that, the prime residence should be included in the asset test for the pension, by the way I sold my ppr and downsized when I was made redundant at 55 and have been self funded since.
Add to that I'm 65 this month and don't get any jobseeker, jobkeeper, or FA and don't qualify for a pension for a year and a half.lol
Meanwhile with the recent economic hit, my dividends are less than my drawdown, but hey still no jobseeker or jobseeker.
I can't wait to see the bleeding hearts in 20 years time, when they have to face up to what they have saved, having to support their expectations when the next crisis hits.
Then they will have grey hair and the laid back younger people snapping at their heels, saying well you had it easy fat bitch.lol
Anyway probably best to get back on thread 9k, it is good to find where we both sit, adds clarity.lol


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2020)

over9k said:


> The first world has been beholden to the baby boomers' whims since the mid 90's. It's simple demographics and they have outvoted the rest of us.
> 
> To be more specific, they've voted to **** us all over. Even now, the boomers are at the peak of their working and therefore taxpaying lives so tax revenues are at the highest they've ever been and so now would be the ideal time to start paying debt down. But the boomers don't want to pay for it and there's enough of them to simply vote for it to be someone else's problem, and so they have. Hence the massive deficits the government is running/the absolute joke the last budget was.
> 
> ...



And isn't the covid response the perfect continuation of that policy: destroying the economy of the west..and as an aside of Africa, latin america and all but Asia, not to scare the over.. what 55?
Decimating the future of generation currently younger than 40y old is a shortsighted move imho as who will pay for the meds or push your wheelchair in 15 to 25 y....


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My last statement might have been too cryptic, but what is the difference between a 'free trade' agreement today, and a removal of tariffs on imported gear from third world countries in the 1980's when labour cost was zero over there? I find it difficult to find the line, but hey I try to be objective.
> I guess it depends who is on the rostrum, banging the tamborine.lol




Too political. 

I don't agree with Hawke and Keating removing tariffs either. It's decimated our manufacturing industry.


----------



## over9k (17 October 2020)




----------



## Smurf1976 (17 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't agree with Hawke and Keating removing tariffs either. It's decimated our manufacturing industry.



Classic case of something that went too far.

It's one thing to give favourable treatment to genuinely poor countries in order to help them help themselves by providing a market for their products. That's a cost efficient and practical means of providing aid to those in genuine need, it gives them a means to lift themselves up economically. 

It's another thing entirely to wipe out entire industries of your own in order to send them to superpowers.

If there's one good thing I'm expecting to come out of all this it's a reversal of some of that.


----------



## over9k (17 October 2020)

U.S. Budget Gap Triples to Record $3.1 Trillion on Virus Relief
					

The U.S. budget deficit more than tripled to a record $3.1 trillion in the latest fiscal year on the government’s massive spending aimed at softening the blow from the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.bloomberg.com
				



.





3.1 trillion deficit and counting. The next stimulus package will obviously add another couple of trillion or whatever it ends up being.

The previous deficits were about 1ish trillion a year, so we're probably looking at 4-5 years of deficits to pay off, assuming they're paid off at the same rate they were accrued (which they won't be).

AU isn't much different, but the AUD isn't the world's reserve currency, so it's a much bigger problem for AU.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

I'm honestly surprised it's not higher. We'll see what winter brings when all the casual summer work (that's left) is over.


----------



## qldfrog (19 October 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 113349
> 
> 
> I'm honestly surprised it's not higher. We'll see what winter brings when all the casual summer work (that's left) is over.



One confusing thing with the US is that we see overall results
Not per state, probably willingly so that people are kept in the fog...
This detaches end results from actual covid blamed measures from consequences.
Trump does not order lockdown measures or free for all.states do:
As a result economically, you can not..but i am sure big fund do, judge the effects of policy changes if when they come on retail, closure, unemployment,etc ultimately critical for US indexes.well should be...
Once elections are over,we may see common sense and figures talk again,but do not all your breath.
Under machartysm time,it took years for US kids not to be told to look under their bed for a red commie in hiding...


----------



## basilio (19 October 2020)

The  long term economic consequences of COVID on Australia are being spelt out. All that easy growth from more people is gone. We will almost certainly lose a large slab of the  O/S students who underwrote our Universities as well as the domestic consumption/rental market in the big cities.

*Covid rewrites Australia’s future, with huge drop in population signalling challenges ahead*
Population growth of 600,000 fewer people in 2022 a sign of major changes for all aspects of life, Deloitte reports








						Covid rewrites Australia’s future, with huge drop in population signalling challenges ahead
					

Population growth of 600,000 fewer people in 2022 a sign of major changes for all aspects of life, Deloitte reports




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## basilio (19 October 2020)

So I wonder at what stage the Share Market starts to reflect the economic realities of very different Australia ?


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

basilio said:


> So I wonder at what stage the Share Market starts to reflect the economic realities of very different Australia ?



Who says it isn't?


----------



## basilio (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Who says it isn't?




??  All ords at 6450 ?   I suggest the implications of the story I quoted and just the most obvious consequences of COVID to date would not support the current SP overall.


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

Time will tell, but the article you posted was basically an opinion piece, with very little reasoning behind it IMO.
The drop in immigration could well be blessing in disguise, it will allow some infrastructure money to be spent on productive investment, rather than just being poured into the housing sector to support the ponzi scheme that has been rampant for the last 15 years.

It will allow for more investment in a renewable grid, rather than just struggling to keep up with the increased power demand, that 600,000 extra people per annum add to the existing grid.
It will allow social housing to catch up with demand and reduce the pumping of existing house prices, as supply has never been allowed to catch up with demand.

The share market IMO, is reflecting the economy currently prevailing, financials are still down understandably, miners are up understandably and retail is being kept afloat by government spending.
So IMO it is a reflection of where we are at, whether that stays the same when the Government reduces the handouts remains to be seen, but on past performance, I expect some for of stimulus for the financial sector when the transition happens.
Just my opinion, but up to now I think it has been handled extremely well, I hope it holds up.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

basilio said:


> So I wonder at what stage the Share Market starts to reflect the economic realities of very different Australia ?




When the government stops borrowing money and propping it up with it. All they've done is kick the can down the road. This piper needs to be paid eventually.


----------



## basilio (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Time will tell, but the article you posted was basically an opinion piece, with very little reasoning behind it IMO.
> The drop in immigration could well be blessing in disguise, it will allow some infrastructure money to be spent on productive investment, rather than just being poured into the housing sector to support the ponzi scheme that has been rampant for the last 15 years.
> 
> It will allow for more investment in a renewable grid, rather than just struggling to keep up with the increased power demand, that 600,000 extra people per annum add to the existing grid.
> ...




I agree with most of your observations SP and theoretically we could invest in quality infrastructure, a renewable energy grid (excellent..) and better social housing with excellent overall results.

Having said that I'm not sure the current Government or the financial institutions give tuppence about such objectives. Traditionally migrant driven  real estate development has been the core of our economic growth (even if that "growth" causes more problems than it's worth).  That was the reasoning behind the story and it certainly reflects our development parameters since WW2.

I agree that our current share market as well as the economy has been supported by the multi billion dollar support for wages and businesses. So it will be interesting to see what happens when the tap is turned off.


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

basilio said:


> I agree with most of your observations SP and theoretically we could invest in quality infrastructure, a renewable energy grid (excellent..) and better social housing with excellent overall results.
> 
> Having said that I'm not sure the current Government or the financial institutions give tuppence about such objectives. Traditionally migrant driven  real estate development has been the core of our economic growth (even if that "growth" causes more problems than it's worth).  That was the reasoning behind the story and it certainly reflects our development parameters since WW2.
> 
> I agree that our current share market as well as the economy has been supported by the multi billion dollar support for wages and businesses. So it will be interesting to see what happens when the tap is turned off.



Both sides of politics have been pushing for a much larger population base, this virus may well give them a taste of what can be achieved and I think it will change the economic model we have been following.
There are many facets of our economy, that will require time to modify and a pause in population growth may well facilitate the changes required.
Hopefully some of the tribal politics, can be put aside, while Australia develops a sustainable economy. 
One thing for sure, neither party has actually done anything, other than follow the well trodden path since the 1970's.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

What has me worried is what the politicians are going to do to "rebound the economy" or similar such soundbites.

Mass immigration & foreign students were the only things other than mining that were keeping this house of cards going before and I fear they're going to put both in overdrive ala krudd's first year the moment that they're able to.


----------



## satanoperca (19 October 2020)

over9k said:


> All they've done is kick the can down the road. This piper needs to be paid eventually.



But we have been doing that for decades, could you really have thought 5 years ago we would have had close to 0% interest rates, I think the piper is dead and cannot collect.

So lets reflect about what we know about this virus (correct me if I am wrong please):
1. It is worse than the flu which kills lots of people every year, as we have no immunity against it in the short term.
2. Over the duration of say 5 years, will it have increased or decreased the average life expectancy of Australians? Might by less than 2%.
3. Have people/pollies overreacted in fear? Only time will tell
4. Has the path chosen caused more long term damage than the virus to people's wellbeing and the economy? YES
5. Can we stay in the status of immobilization? NO
6. SO WHAT HAVE WE GAINED IN THE LONG TERM - SAY in 3 years time.

PS we have gained something, a crap load of debt.


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> 6. *SO WHAT HAVE WE GAINED IN THE LONG TERM - SAY in 3 years time*.



Possibly a reduction in retail duplication, thereby removing the uncompetitive ones.
Possibly a reduction in Sydney/ Melbourne house prices, as demand falls due to reduced immigration.
More low cost housing available, due to building stimulus Federally and State, also State spending on social housing.
Electrical demand plateau, again due to lower immigration, enabling the system to catch up with the deployment of more bulk renewables and storage.
Manufacturing start ups, to supply critical items as per the strategic shortages during the lockdown, mining companies will look at value adding here rather than O/S as is being shown with BHP and nickel.
Some companies will try to onshore critical component manufacture here, as China has flagged uncertainty of supply with its embargoes.
That is just a few of the things that come quickly to mind.
Actually I think a lot will happen in the next 3-5 years, only my opinion though.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Time will tell, but the article you posted was basically an opinion piece, with very little reasoning behind it IMO.
> The drop in immigration could well be blessing in disguise, it will allow some infrastructure money to be spent on productive investment, rather than just being poured into the housing sector to support the ponzi scheme that has been rampant for the last 15 years.
> 
> It will allow for more investment in a renewable grid, rather than just struggling to keep up with the increased power demand, that 600,000 extra people per annum add to the existing grid.
> ...




Well said sp.

I would also add that the drop in the immigration Ponzi scheme would reduce the over supply of labour that has resulted in wage stagnation and insecure work over the last few decades and may result in employers having to compete for labour rather than a large pool of unemployed competing for jobs.

Mind you immigration has been driven by business demands for more consumers and more unemployed so they can drive down wages so as soon as the Coalition sees the chance, the brakes will be off and the Ponzi scheme will start again.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> But we have been doing that for decades, could you really have thought 5 years ago we would have had close to 0% interest rates, I think the piper is dead and cannot collect.
> 
> So lets reflect about what we know about this virus (correct me if I am wrong please):
> 1. It is worse than the flu which kills lots of people every year, as we have no immunity against it in the short term.
> ...



My point exactly. We're due for an unbelievable amount of pain and I'm very concerned as to what the politicians are going to do to attempt to avoid it.


----------



## satanoperca (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Possibly a reduction in retail duplication, thereby removing the uncompetitive ones.
> Possibly a reduction in Sydney/ Melbourne house prices, as demand falls due to reduced immigration.
> More low cost housing available, due to building stimulus Federally and State, also State spending on social housing.
> Electrical demand plateau, again due to lower immigration, enabling the system to catch up with the deployment of more bulk renewables and storage.
> ...



Don't mean to be rude and so it is easier to follow have numbered your comments.
1. That is natural market forces
2. That is a big ask, don't think taking on over $200B in debt was an answer to housing affordability
3. So you think that the govnuts throwing more debt to everyone will help in the long term?
4. Agree with
5. You are kidding yourself, manufacturing in this country is dead, noone will invest in it, ever. As to the value adding, no they will not, the costs is way to high. We somewhat care about people and the environment, making it impossible to compete against countries that do not.
6. China is just one country, and if you we upto date with manufacturing, you would know that many companies were already diversifying to other countries, away from China. Nothing has changed

8. Yes WW111, high youth unemployment, Automation, AI and more restrictions to citizens, no freedom of movement etc


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Mind you immigration has been driven by business demands for more consumers and more unemployed so they can drive down wages so as soon as the Coalition sees the chance, the brakes will be off and the Ponzi scheme will start again.



I know you do the choreography, for The Labor cheer squad, but Rudd did say he want 50million. 😂

The other one that comes to mind on Rudds watch, was the closing of the BP solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney in November 2008, but hey who wants to finger point.









						BP shuts Sydney solar plant
					

BP will shift solar-cell manufacturing offshore to lower costs, leading to a loss of 200 jobs.




					www.smh.com.au
				




😂 😂


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I know you do the choreography, for The Labor cheer squad, but Rudd did say he want 50million. 😂
> 
> The other one that comes to mind on Rudds watch, was the closing of the BP solar panel manufacturing plant in Sydney in November 2008, but hey who wants to finger point.
> 
> ...



Being against the libs is in no way an endorsement of labor. 

The libs are just labor with a few tax cuts at this point.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

And as if on cue, international finance has started trying to get the migration floodgates reopened:


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Being against the libs is in no way an endorsement of labor.
> 
> The libs are just labor with a few tax cuts at this point.



Yes, I was just having a joke with Rumpies post, it wasn't directed at yourself, no offence intended appologies if any taken


----------



## sptrawler (19 October 2020)

over9k said:


> And as if on cue, international finance has started trying to get the migration floodgates reopened:
> 
> View attachment 113404



I personally hope immigration can be curtailed for an extended period in Australia, the economic growth model it was based on has been blown apart by the fallout from the virus.
The economy requires re configuring IMO and it needs to happen quickly, I don't think population growth supports that, way too many resources are wasted to facilitate consumer growth.
This costs a lot of money, which actually only pays dividends in the service sector.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

Problem is that if migration is driving your economy, you're f***ed without it.

There's literally no way to oppose migration without also supporting a recession, which is political suicide unless enough of the country wakes up to the reality of and then also wants what _needs _to be done, neither of which have a snowball's hope in hell of actually occurring.

The combination of evil plus useful idiots is unassailable. The only thing we can do is hope to make money off of what is inevitably going to happen. I've already eyed of a renovation-ready 6 bedroom place to pack with foreign students in a couple of years' time.


If I had my way the borders would remain permanently closed and the entire university system defunded, but there's too many people with too much money in real estate speculation for the politicians to do anything other than continue driving the ponzi scheme.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes, I was just having a joke with Rumpies post, it wasn't directed at yourself, no offence intended appologies if any taken




No it was directed to me you @#$%^& 

Anyway I don't have to agree with Rudd on everything, and in this case I don't.


----------



## noirua (19 October 2020)

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Sweden 2020 population is estimated at _10,099,265 people_ at mid year according to UN data. Sweden population is equivalent to 0.13% of the total world population. Sweden ranks number 91 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km² (64 people per mi2).

*Borrowing* in inflation-linked bonds and in foreign currency also increases. The central government debt is estimated to increase from SEK 1,113 billion at the end of 2019 to SEK 1,556 billion at the end of 2021. As a share of GDP, central government debt increases from 22 percent to 31 percent. 19 May 2020

---









						Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




The current population of Australia is 25,586,239 as of Saturday, October 17, 2020, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data. Australia 2020 population is estimated at *25,499,884 people* at mid year according to UN data.


As at 6 March 2020, the gross Australian government debt was $573.1 billion. As at 11 April 2017, the gross Australian government debt was $551.75 billion. The government debt fluctuates from week to week depending on government receipts, general outlays and large-sum outlays.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> As to the value adding, no they will not, the costs is way to high



There are people actually doing it or spending serious $ of their own money examining the options. Steel in particular.


----------



## satanoperca (19 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There are people actually doing it or spending serious $ of their own money examining the options. Steel in particular.



Who, show me a company that has done it and kept at it for more than 3 years. It cannot be done in Australia.

Even look at our best tech companies, they all offshore, why, cost.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The economy requires re configuring IMO and it needs to happen quickly



Some have noted that COVID-19 primarily kills older people who are in poor health anyway. Not entirely but to considerable extent.

Trouble is, that's a pretty good description of much of our economy. Decades behind and limping along.

If we come out of this with a focus on something that isn't on its last legs and which actually has a long term future then the pain will be worth it. 

A lot of the destruction economically was always going to happen, this pandemic situation just set the building on fire rather than waiting for it to slowly rot away but it was coming down regardless, our economic situation hasn't been on a sustainable path for a long time now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Who, show me a company that has done it and kept at it for more than 3 years. It cannot be done in Australia.



Liberty Steel Group wouldn't be putting the effort into steelmaking and assembling a vertically integrated industry within Australia if they didn't have plans to stick at it. That's one example for a relatively low tech but important manufacturing industry.

For something higher tech, well every ship that has won the Hales Trophy for the fastest transatlantic crossing during the past 30 years has something in common. They were all built by Incat in Tasmania. 

Ultimately if we don't manufacture then we're stuffed since there's no long term future digging holes in the ground, running up debt and running down the integrity of institutions as we've been doing.


----------



## satanoperca (19 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Ultimately if we don't manufacture then we're stuffed since there's no long term future digging holes in the ground, running up debt and running down the integrity of institutions as we've been doing.




Agree, however manufacturing is not the only answer, we have services and more importantly, we could be a food basin for the world. Digging up dirt is easy, the path ahead will require brains, dirt requires brawn.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

A lot of very knowledgeable people keep saying that china's talk is all bluster, and it is - they've caved on absolutely everything that even the relatively weak nations have threatened. Trump & Lighthizer walked all over them.


----------



## over9k (19 October 2020)

Oh and this is very much still a thing:




The borders were _never _going to be reopened, and they won't be until 2022 at the earliest, very possibly 2023.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> however manufacturing is not the only answer, we have services and more importantly, we could be a food basin for the world. Digging up dirt is easy, the path ahead will require brains



Agreed and something I think is important in this context is to avoid the tendency to look for silver bullets.

Thinking of past economic downturns, that tends to be what happens. Governments come up with some single magic solution that's going to fix everything and it never does.

There's no need to be narrowly focused, it's not as though government needs to command and control everything, and instead it's wiser to go with all things that work. If that's x% manufacturing, y% services, z% agriculture and so on and we've still got a bit of mining and we've got science and so on then that beats trying to pick one big winner and expecting that to fix the lot.

Another problem relating to that "one big solution" approach is that it can't work everywhere or for everyone. The climate differences between the NT and Tas or the population density differences between Vic and WA preclude that single approach.

Then there's the human aspect of it all. Someone with a natural talent in science and maths based things is never going to be much good as a tour guide. Someone with musical talent is wasting their time in a factory. And so on. If we don't have a diverse economy then that of itself will drive a portion of the population to move somewhere else that does offer those things.

Whatever we do though, we have to think smart not brute force that's for sure.


----------



## qldfrog (20 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Some have noted that COVID-19 primarily kills older people who are in poor health anyway. Not entirely but to considerable extent.
> 
> Trouble is, that's a pretty good description of much of our economy. Decades behind and limping along.
> 
> ...



Sadly it also had many economic collateral damages of  bright shiny stars, so the analogy with covid stops there.
All non domestic based businesses just to name a few.only so much video calls can do ...
Ultimately we will reinforce a mining and agricultural based economy...forget it with the refined product and we will loose the top service part: international finance,software,etc
It will not happen overnight but Australians have been prevented from travelling OS for soon a year...this is not happening in Europe, Asia or US...so goid luck to expand create or maintain your international business.
Back to our 3rd world economic model..thanks God immigration is over,less people to share the crumbs with...


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> It will not happen overnight but Australians have been prevented from travelling OS for soon a year...this is not happening in Europe, Asia or US...so goid luck to expand create or maintain your international business.



Agreed this is stuffing pretty much any business that deals in overseas markets apart from bulk commodities. A video call might sustain an existing project but that's about it, you can't actually do the job that way when it requires people on site etc and that forces the client to go to someone who can.



qldfrog said:


> Back to our 3rd world economic model..thanks God immigration is over,less people to share the crumbs with...



Ultimately I think it's going to force a serious resetting of a great many things once reality sinks in.

It has brought forward the day of reckoning but ultimately we've been on an unsustainable path for a long time now. It was always going to end badly, this just moved it forward by a decade or two.


----------



## over9k (21 October 2020)

FMG et al still a buy IMO.


----------



## qldfrog (22 October 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...a/news-story/adf8d42aeb7c33f525f0eee619d8d187


----------



## qldfrog (22 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.news.com.au/technology/...a/news-story/adf8d42aeb7c33f525f0eee619d8d187



Would be nice, not a chance to happen in the real world with our current Qld gov.


----------



## Knobby22 (22 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Would be nice, not a chance to happen in the real world with our current Qld gov.



Is it practical? Cost of rail for one product and shipping is cheap. You would need something more comprehensive. Maybe it can be linked into the sheep stations? Other mines?


----------



## qldfrog (22 October 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Is it practical? Cost of rail for one product and shipping is cheap. You would need something more comprehensive. Maybe it can be linked into the sheep stations? Other mines?



If that was an issue just ship both down south...
But you could have a solar powered electric train network.
Our international advantages for the time being:
Coal iron sun and debt raising...
Let's not waste it..


----------



## sptrawler (22 October 2020)

bk1 said:


> It's an an article of faith that i do not take part in IPOs, but hopefully this one relents enough so as to give a buying opportunity. Been waiting for this one to come to market as a leitmotiv for the eCommerce sector.





qldfrog said:


> If that was an issue just ship both down south...
> But you could have a solar powered electric train network.
> Our international advantages for the time being:
> Coal iron sun and debt raising...
> Let's not waste it..



We had a steel industry not long back, I don't see it coming back.
The only way would be if they used renewables, to run electric arc furnaces and locate it in the North of Australia. Then they only have to ship either the coal or the iron ore to a mega processing plant, the problem with all this is no one wants to live up North, let alone work up there. 😂


----------



## qldfrog (22 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> We had a steel industry not long back, I don't see it coming back.
> The only way would be if they used renewables, to run electric arc furnaces and locate it in the North of Australia. Then they only have to ship either the coal or the iron ore to a mega processing plant, the problem with all this is no one wants to live up North, let alone work up there. 😂



You do not need many people, just do fifo:
And people might end up with no choice


----------



## sptrawler (22 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You do not need many people, just do fifo:
> And people might end up with no choice



FIFO isn't sustainable long term, it is only a matter of time before the emissions become the next frontier and that will happen soon when the result of the virus initiated aviation downturn gets published. The left will be all over it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Would be nice, not a chance to happen in the real world with our current Qld gov.



The idea's not a new one by the way - it was around in the 1990's but couldn't gain any traction with governments.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> We had a steel industry not long back, I don't see it coming back.



Sanjeev Gupta (Google will tell you who he is if not familiar) has bought the Whyalla steelworks in SA and has very recently bought the the TEMCO (Tasmanian Electro Metallurgical Co) plant in Tasmania.

He's looking at rebuilding Whyalla to massively scale up production to 10 million tonnes per annum.

Where TEMCO fits into the plan is that it produces ferromanganese, silicomanganese and sinter - all of which are ingredients used in steel in addition to iron ore. TEMCO being the only such producer in this part of the world. 

He's got a plan - he didn't make $ billions just doing things randomly.


----------



## over9k (24 October 2020)

A very different picture to the stock market, which overwhelmingly tracks big business. And, the bigger the business, the more it's gained. Check nyfang out:


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Sanjeev Gupta (Google will tell you who he is if not familiar) has bought the Whyalla steelworks in SA and has very recently bought the the TEMCO (Tasmanian Electro Metallurgical Co) plant in Tasmania.
> 
> He's looking at rebuilding Whyalla to massively scale up production to 10 million tonnes per annum.
> 
> ...



Yes I was being sarcastic really, it is ironic when an Indian individual has more faith in the Australian steel industry, than BHP (the BIG AUSTRALIAN) which closed down most of its processing plant and are making a billion dollars by stripping the country of its resources.  👍
Ah the clever country.🤪
The last Australian with any vision for this country was Charlie Court IMO, he made the mining companies build towns where they wanted to mine minerals. He made the companies build value added industry and built a domestic gas supply to Perth from the NW.
In the Eastern States they had a steel industry, they had a vibrant manufacturing industry, that built Australia's living standard.
All we have done in the last 20 years, is ride the wave of growth from that and now that wave is breaking.
We expect an increasing living standard, but no one can explain where it is going to come from, 
Twenty years ago Keatings catch cry was the clever country, well 50% of kids now go to uni, but our education standards have dropped.
Competency standards were introduced to improve productivity in the trades, but the standards have dropped, where is this magic improvement going to come from.
IMO when they admit we have made a real mess of things.


----------



## over9k (24 October 2020)

sptrawler said:


> IMO when they admit we have made a real mess of things.



So on the 25th of never.


----------



## basilio (24 October 2020)

COVID is out of control across Europe the US and South America. Cases are rising exponentially again as are hospitalizations and deaths.

The impact on European economies can only worsen. At some stage the markets are also going to react to falling profits and  impacts on  budgets.


----------



## over9k (24 October 2020)




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## Sdajii (24 October 2020)

basilio said:


> COVID is out of control across Europe the US and South America. Cases are rising exponentially again as are hospitalizations and deaths.
> 
> The impact on European economies can only worsen. At some stage the markets are also going to react to falling profits and  impacts on  budgets.




Dry your eyes, Chicken Little. The death rate is barely increasing. The WHO accidentally admitted the Wuhan virus is no deadlier than the flu. The virus is 'out of control' in that it is freely spreading and we're not going to eliminate it (much like colds and flu etc) but where are the dead people? Early in the year we had propaganda images of deal people lining the streets in places like Spain and Italy. Now, the numbers of confirmed cases are far far higher, but few people are dying (and of course, the overwhelming majority of people dying are old folks, cancer victims etc, who just happen to catch it and be infected at the time of their already inevitable death).

Something so many people fail to grasp is that if you had a virus with literally zero symptoms which was highly contagious, a lot of people would die with it, even though it was completely harmless. Before this virus came along, more than 1% of the world's human population died every year. This virus popped up and is infecting many people, generally with symptoms so mild people don't even notice anything unusual is happening to them - they still want to work, socialise, etc etc. People are still going to die just like they always have, and some of them will just happen to have this disease at the time of their death.

The virus is not causing the economic problems. The lockdowns and fear campaigns are causing the economic problems. Removing the elderly and sickly people from the population (which this virus isn't doing significantly anyway) would actually improve the economy, not hurt it.

Unless you're a Chinese whistle blower or literally on your death bed from final stage terminal cancer or close to your expiry date due to old age, this is not a dangerous virus.


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## Smurf1976 (24 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The virus is not causing the economic problems. The lockdowns and fear campaigns are causing the economic problems.



Plus the cost of healthcare.

There's 2.8 million currently infected in the USA and critically, that number has continued to rise throughout the whole saga, at no point has there been a substantial decline. It has been rising or flat the whole time.

Same in other countries eg France for example. There was the first wave and that brought active cases to around 55k which then stabilised before this second wave which has brought it to just under 900k cases and rapidly increasing.

The economic effects of having an increasing number of sick people are going to reach a point where it matters at some point surely. That would happen regardless of the underlying cause - having lots of people sick and not contributing economically is going to matter at some point.


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## Sdajii (24 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Plus the cost of healthcare.
> 
> There's 2.8 million currently infected in the USA and critically, that number has continued to rise throughout the whole saga, at no point has there been a substantial decline. It has been rising or flat the whole time.
> 
> ...




The whole mantra, the whole reason for the whole lockdown nonsense, the whole plan, was on the assumption that the number of people sick with this disease would dramatically overwhelm the healthcare system. Not a question of if, but by how much. It was taken as a given that if we did nothing there would be widespread mass death, and even with our best efforts the healthcare system would be far beyond capacity and we could simply do our best and reduce the number of people by as much as possible. It was assumed that everyone would be exposed, regardless of what we did, and we were simply trying to drag it out so that as few people as possible had it at any given time.

In reality land, hospitals have not been overwhelmed, even in the USA (perhaps in isolated cases, I mean, even in normal times we sometimes see hospital capacity exceeded, but unless we're being completely disingenuous, it's fair to say that hospital capacity has not been exceeded). Sure, people are catching this disease. Generally we don't even know unless we carry out big testing campaigns. It's so mild that it can in some cases lurk long term in communities without even being noticed! Case numbers are irrelevant if the disease is not sufficiently harmful.

Yet again we can look at Sweden, it continues to demonstrate the situation and the model of what to do. They let it go through the community, they still have a reasonable number of cases and as winter approaches there were will more and more, but even as numbers increase, their fatalities remain negligible, and the number of people requiring significant medical care is very low. The economy can function normally with a small number of people needing some healthcare and virtually no one dying, as long as there is no fear campaign or economic policy retarding the economy or way of life.

The economic impact of the virus itself is absolutely comparable to colds, flu, hayfever, etc. According to the WHO's own data from this month, it is no worse than the flu! It's fair to say that the lockdowns are tremendously worse for the economy than a bad flu season. The economy doesn't have a virus problem, it has a propaganda and policy problem.

If you want to look at the humanitarian issue it becomes far more extreme in terms of the lockdowns causing far more harm than good, and inevitably this means that when a real pandemic of actual medical significance comes along we're going to have a global population far more sceptical and reluctant to cooperate with lockdowns, which will cause the next one to be far worse than it otherwise would have been, in terms of the virus itself and thus presumably economically.


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## over9k (25 October 2020)

Again, it just doesn't matter. The politicians are NOT going to change their tune. It doesn't even matter why the politicians are not going to change their tune.


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## qldfrog (25 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Plus the cost of healthcare.
> 
> There's 2.8 million currently infected in the USA and critically, that number has continued to rise throughout the whole saga, at no point has there been a substantial decline. It has been rising or flat the whole time.
> 
> ...



Most of the sick people you mentioned are home because of regulations, not because they are unfit...
My niece got it so had to self isolate for 19 days or so before going back to  work .with a cold, she might have been home one or 2 days 
However you look at it scientifically,it is a man made economic and social disaster, not a medical one.
And if it is a  designed crisis, the importance should be on understanding why and what is the ultimate aim/ purpose.
This will have more impact on your portfolio wealth in a decade than buying or not zoom..but hey numbers and stats are now political and just fake news


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## Sdajii (25 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Again, it just doesn't matter. The politicians are NOT going to change their tune. It doesn't even matter why the politicians are not going to change their tune.




What a strange post.

It's entirely relevant that this is a political issue not a virus/pandemic issue. This nature of the issue is directly relevant to how it is going to play out, and what is happening. If you assume it is primarily a virus issue (which is the mainstream narrative and misconception held by most people) you will think that the economy is going to recover or not according to when the virus does whatever it does.

The politicians are obviously going to change policy, and it's almost literally insane to say otherwise. The fact that the economic problem is a policy and narrative issue rather than a virus issue means they will change policies sooner. If the policies were not causing economic harm, they could remain in place indefinitely. Since they are the thing causing the harm, they will be removed as soon as possible. The thing currently holding that back is the reluctance of politicians to commit political suicide by admitting their mistake. To say 'We destroyed the economy and harmed so many people unnecessarily, we've killed a number of people literally orders of magnitude larger than we've saved' is an extent of losing face which they simply will not do. They will change policy when it is politically possible to do so, or when the people demand it. Indeed, we are seeing clear evidence of community pressure working in Melbourne, with people and businesses increasingly defying the laws, and the government being forced to bend to the will of the people to create the illusion of control, rather than let them appear to win after a period of increased community vs. law/government conflict (and hats off to the owners of those businesses which publicised that they were going to open in spite of the bans, just before the 'coincidental' decision to lift restrictions).

However you look at it, policies are going to change because current policies are clearly unsustainable for multiple reasons. Understanding why the policies are what they are helps predict what will happen, and understand the nature of what's going on.

It's strange and frankly offensive that you take an attitude of 'the government won't change so don't even discuss it'.

These concepts at work are why for several months now I've been saying that the largely ineffective vaccines will be used as a face-saving excuse for the governments to lift restrictions. We are seeing an increasing number of countries where the governments are being forced by the community to ease restrictions and return to normal, and Australia does not exist in a vacuum; Australians will see other countries doing it and this will bring pressure for Australia to follow. The narratives of the virus being false and increasingly obviously so very much will have an influence on government policy around the world including Australia, and this is obviously relevant to the economy.


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## over9k (25 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> What a strange post.
> 
> It's entirely relevant that this is a political issue not a virus/pandemic issue. This nature of the issue is directly relevant to how it is going to play out, and what is happening. If you assume it is primarily a virus issue (which is the mainstream narrative and misconception held by most people) you will think that the economy is going to recover or not according to when the virus does whatever it does.
> 
> ...



I think it's stupid that you want to waste time discussing something that isn't going to happen. Even stupider is giving your opinion on anything reference what the powers that be should do. 

You want to argue about what should be done, there's a thread for that. This is a thread for what WILL be done.


----------



## Sdajii (25 October 2020)

over9k said:


> I think it's stupid that you want to waste time discussing something that isn't going to happen. Even stupider is giving your opinion on anything reference what the powers that be should do.
> 
> You want to argue about what should be done, there's a thread for that. This is a thread for what WILL be done.




It's always ironic when someone takes the time to post in order to tell someone else that they're stupid for taking the time to post. But hey, good for you.

If you want to take your head out of your proverbial, you'll realise that even the world's greatest cynic can see that there is some relationship between what should be done and what does get done. What you are saying here is that there is no relationship. This is simply not true. This thread is indeed, as you say, about what we expect will happen. If you manage to keep your head out of your proverbial and read my post again you'll see that I was relating everything to how it affects what will happen, not simply rambling about what I think should be done despite it having no hope of happening. I wasn't even talking about what I think should be done, I was literally pointing out that there was no chance of it, I outlined various reasons for why, and speculated on what would happen.

You may disagree with my analysis on any of the above, but what you've said is hypocritical, stupid and clearly incorrect.


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## qldfrog (25 October 2020)

The view politicians in control will change but are afraid to admit their mustake is a very gentle one and assume there are no more sinister design.
Here in qld, virus is used by labour to ensure reelection, and was same in France a few months ago, covid is widely used to suppress freedom, curfew in france so covid dangerous by night orbin bars but ok to get into the metro to go to work before 9pm..etc
It also de facto results in big business win, extermination of smaller businesses, and is a hidden step toward the universal income dreamed by many leftists
100 pc of population ending as public servants, and an over ruling government in full control 
Do not smoke , burn petrol, think or your income is going to be slashed..
China 2.0 playing up in the west
So yes invest on the big names, all totalitarian tools to control mind..social media, google and bodys: prisons, drones and surveillance, AI soft weapons...
Orwelian..


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## Smurf1976 (25 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> However you look at it scientifically,it is a man made economic and social disaster, not a medical one.
> And if it is a designed crisis, the importance should be on understanding why and what is the ultimate aim/ purpose.



Agreed that the actions don't match the official explanation. The virus is serious, I don't dispute that, but the level of seriousness claimed and the actions taken don't really match. It's akin to sending out 50 senior police to deal with a burglary - makes no sense unless the real reason is something other than a smashed window and some household items being stolen.

Noting that the number of governments involved, from both sides of political spectrum, makes sheer incompetence relatively unlikely I see three possibilities:

1. Governments have information about the virus which has not been publicly disclosed. That is, there is in fact a sound medical reason for the actions taken. 

I won't speculate as to what that information might be but I mean something serious. Serious as in, for example, those who've had it will never be able to have children or they're highly likely to die 20 years earlier than normal, etc. Some issue which means the true toll is far higher than those who die in the short term.

2. It is being used as a convenient reason to fix the economy which was in a parlous state long before COVID-19 turned up. 

A pandemic enables governments to get things done, or to back track on previous policies, in a manner that would be far more difficult under normal circumstances. That is not suggesting the virus was created for that specific purpose, just that once it turned up and the initial response had been implemented the opportunity to continue, and to rebuild the economy, was readily apparent.

3. Politics as such. Governments have concluded that "being tough on viruses" is a way to win elections.

I'm far less convinced about the latter possibility given that the truth will out at some point and it's probable that quite a few politicians would end up literally being shot etc if the whole thing turned out to have been a political stunt. If it is, then it's an extraordinarily risky one.


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## Sdajii (25 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed that the actions don't match the official explanation. The virus is serious, I don't dispute that, but the level of seriousness claimed and the actions taken don't really match. It's akin to sending out 50 senior police to deal with a burglary - makes no sense unless the real reason is something other than a smashed window and some household items being stolen.
> 
> Noting that the number of governments involved, from both sides of political spectrum, makes sheer incompetence relatively unlikely I see three possibilities:
> 
> ...




I can certainly see how a lot of aspects of current events lend themselves beautifully to conspiracy theories, but while some of them are clearly actual conspiracies (the WHO is a Chinese puppet for an obvious example), others which sort of seem plausible break down on closer inspection.

1) It doesn't seem plausible that the majority of national governments could have access to some secret information about this virus which reveals it is nastier than publicly acknowledged, yet that cat remains in the bag. In this scenario, they would have needed to know it by early this year at the latest, and it would still need to be a secret. That just isn't realistic. Additionally, it's utterly biologically inconsistent with a non chronic respiratory virus (unless it's specifically bioengineered as a weapon for that exact purpose). If you want further evidence against it, politicians are letting their own children out and about, etc. If this was the case they'd be in bunkers or some remote island or something.

2 and 3) There are clearly elements of these going on, but they seem to just be opportunistically being used by individual politicians or government bodies, rather than the whole big thing being an orchestrated event. Without getting into extremely stretched hypotheticals (USA is playing 4D chess, happy to take the world into turmoil and take a severe poison pill themselves to lull the world into thinking they're weak, then unleashing some super weapon/secret plan... and clearly this would be a B grade movie plot at best), the only 'it's a deliberate plan' scenario which begins to hold any level of plausibility is that China is behind it all, but while they do seem to have taken opportunistic advantage of it to the best of their ability, which has been extremely impressive, it doesn't seem too likely. Just playing devil's advocate, if China is behind a deliberate orchestration, other national governments are incompetent with a number of corrupt individuals scattered around (this part actually is clearly true - incompetent governments and corrupt politicians taking Chinese bribes). Even playing devil's advocate, it's not plausible that many if any governments could be in direct cahoots with China and fully on board with some nefarious Chinese plan, although to varying extents, some individual politicians are assisting China (and other nations obviously bribe various other nations - Biden's family being a very blatant example, as were the Clintons, but people hate Trump so much that they're ignoring it, a disturbing state of affairs.

It really doesn't seem like a political stunt as such, not in a big picture sort of deal anyway.


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## qldfrog (25 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed that the actions don't match the official explanation. The virus is serious, I don't dispute that, but the level of seriousness claimed and the actions taken don't really match. It's akin to sending out 50 senior police to deal with a burglary - makes no sense unless the real reason is something other than a smashed window and some household items being stolen.
> 
> Noting that the number of governments involved, from both sides of political spectrum, makes sheer incompetence relatively unlikely I see three possibilities:
> 
> ...



As always better said than i could, i would not believe in 1
But option 2 is my preferred view, plus opportunistic actions here and there by local gov.
that would mean the need to protect your assets from gov appropriations, a bet on big business,gold and crypto
big government being the rule: universal income taxation for the working fews


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## qldfrog (25 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> As always better said than i could, i would not believe in 1
> But option 2 is my preferred view, plus opportunistic actions here and there by local gov.
> that would mean the need to protect your assets from gov appropriations, a bet on big business,gold and crypto
> big government being the rule: universal income taxation for the working fews



Or option 2 with the blame for the misery coming due to that reset put on the Chinese
Just need to announce
 we have proof it came from wuhan .as it is most probably the case, not hard to prove wo doubt
Blame is deflected, you can even start a wae if you need to .,


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## over9k (26 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It's always ironic when someone takes the time to post in order to tell someone else that they're stupid for taking the time to post. But hey, good for you.



No it isn't. Irony means an outcome that was the opposite of what was intended. If one post of mine saves the time of >1 of yours, we're in front. 


> If you want to take your head out of your proverbial, you'll realise that even the world's greatest cynic can see that there is some relationship between what should be done and what does get done. What you are saying here is that there is no relationship. This is simply not true. This thread is indeed, as you say, about what we expect will happen. If you manage to keep your head out of your proverbial and read my post again you'll see that I was relating everything to how it affects what will happen, not simply rambling about what I think should be done despite it having no hope of happening. I wasn't even talking about what I think should be done, I was literally pointing out that there was no chance of it, I outlined various reasons for why, and speculated on what would happen.
> 
> You may disagree with my analysis on any of the above, but what you've said is hypocritical, stupid and clearly incorrect.




This entire post: 



Sdajii said:


> The whole mantra, the whole reason for the whole lockdown nonsense, the whole plan, was on the assumption that the number of people sick with this disease would dramatically overwhelm the healthcare system. Not a question of if, but by how much. It was taken as a given that if we did nothing there would be widespread mass death, and even with our best efforts the healthcare system would be far beyond capacity and we could simply do our best and reduce the number of people by as much as possible. It was assumed that everyone would be exposed, regardless of what we did, and we were simply trying to drag it out so that as few people as possible had it at any given time.
> 
> In reality land, hospitals have not been overwhelmed, even in the USA (perhaps in isolated cases, I mean, even in normal times we sometimes see hospital capacity exceeded, but unless we're being completely disingenuous, it's fair to say that hospital capacity has not been exceeded). Sure, people are catching this disease. Generally we don't even know unless we carry out big testing campaigns. It's so mild that it can in some cases lurk long term in communities without even being noticed! Case numbers are irrelevant if the disease is not sufficiently harmful.
> 
> ...




Is just you on your soapbox, saying this is all dumb, that we should be doing XYZ etc etc like 3/4 of your other posts in this thread. You want to have a pointless argument about the best policy would/should/could have been, do it in the thread for it. This thread is titled "economic implications of a sars/coronavirus outbreak" not "what do we reckon should be the government's response to the sars/coronavirus outbreak". I really don't know how much plainer I can put it. 

If you can't understand the difference between what you think should happen vs what you think will happen, there's really nothing else I can say. 

If you want to get on your soapbox and say "scomo should do XYZ and here's why" then my response is "riveting tale chap, let me know when he starts consulting you".


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## Dona Ferentes (26 October 2020)

I feel the bloviating blowhards should step down. 

Economic implications of Covid.... Follow the money. This is slide 21 of Argo AGM presentation today.


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## Sdajii (26 October 2020)

over9k said:


> No it isn't. Irony means an outcome that was the opposite of what was intended. If one post of mine saves the time of >1 of yours, we're in front.




Yet here we are with your post having been completely unnecessary in the first place and having spawned multiple further posts. Do you see the irony now or is your head still inserted fully?

The rest of your post missed the point and was irrelevant so I'll leave it there, noting that the fact that you posted it is... well, actually, you probably would have trouble understanding anyway.


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## over9k (26 October 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Yet here we are with your post having been completely unnecessary in the first place and having spawned multiple further posts. Do you see the irony now or is your head still inserted fully?
> 
> The rest of your post missed the point and was irrelevant so I'll leave it there, noting that the fact that you posted it is... well, actually, you probably would have trouble understanding anyway.



Oh yeah, because you wouldn't have just continued bloviating if I hadn't said anything. 

Let me know when scomo calls you up for some advice


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## Sdajii (26 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh yeah, because you wouldn't have just continued bloviating if I hadn't said anything.




Whether or not that's true, it's very clear that you are making the effort to post. That was the irony. It continues to be. Catch up whenever you're ready.



> Let me know when scomo calls you up for some advice




Let me know if you manage to fathom that this comment is irrelevant.


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## over9k (27 October 2020)

Now that he's added to the block list, it is apparent that he clearly does not understand that if I spend one post to save more than one of his, there's a net benefit. 

He is either deliberately misinterpreting what I'm saying, or literally cannot understand the concept of net rather than gross difference.


Back to economic implications of the virus:




It's not just furniture and electronics etc sales that are stratospheric, kids have needed something to do whilst stuck at home too


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## satanoperca (27 October 2020)

over9k said:


> Now that he's added to the block list, it is apparent that he clearly does not understand that if I spend one post to save more than one of his, there's a net benefit.



Benefit to who?
Not the discussion.
You need to reread his posts carefully, take your time, they are clear and concise and 100% on topic about the economics at play.


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## basilio (29 October 2020)

As COVID has exploded in Europe France , Germany and probably other countries are going into lock down to control the spread of the disease before their hospitals and medical facilities are  overrun.
Stock markets have responded accordingly  The US and OZ will no doubt follow suit.









						Markets fall as prospect of winter lockdowns in Europe triggers sell-offs
					

Fears that strict curbs will also mean halt to region’s fragile recovery prompt ‘avalanche’ of selling




					www.theguardian.com


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## Sdajii (29 October 2020)

> Now that he's added to the block list, it is apparent that he clearly does not understand that if I spend one post to save more than one of his, there's a net benefit.
> 
> He is either deliberately misinterpreting what I'm saying, or literally cannot understand the concept of net rather than gross difference.




Of course, the irony remains that he has avoided nothing and made multiple posts ostensibly to avoid posting or something, which he couldn't help but continue with, ultimately resorting to the cowardly act of eliminating his ability to see what's going on because his willpower was insufficient, and continually being shown to be irrational was too painful.


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## satanoperca (29 October 2020)

79878 doctor certified deaths occurred between 1 January 2020 and 28 July 2020.  ABS

So we locked down a country and Victoria, for what exactly, 0.01% of the deaths are Covid related.  380 people a day anyway, I wonder if we locked everything down, could we get that number down to <10 a day.


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## Smurf1976 (29 October 2020)

satanoperca said:


> So we locked down a country and Victoria, for what exactly, 0.01% of the deaths are Covid related.



Completely missing the point that the restrictions are a cause of the low death rate not the reverse.


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## sptrawler (30 October 2020)

Interesting thing happened today, I had cause to pick up some fine thread 10mm nuts, Bunninfs only sell coarse thread, anyway back to the story.
The lady behind the counter was spewing, apparently she withdrew money from her super and now she was having to work because she no longer qualified for jobseeker.
Ah lifes a bitch.


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## qldfrog (31 October 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Completely missing the point that the restrictions are a cause of the low death rate not the reverse.



Low death with Covid-19 or low death from covid19.
A fine difference which is voluntarily blurred at the very least in Europe.


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## Dona Ferentes (2 November 2020)

It appears that workers in *traditional white collar jobs *are facing the toughest challenge when it comes to resuming their home loan payments.

_According to Westpac, 27 per cent of these deferred mortgages – worth just over $5 billion – are held by people working in professional services, including the legal, information technology, business administration and consulting industries. A further 11 per cent of its deferred home loans – worth just over $2 billion – are mortgages taken out by people who work in finance and insurance. The communication sector has also been hard-hit by the pandemic, with people working in this industry accounting for 9 per cent of Westpac's deferred home loans – worth around $1.7 billion._

_In contrast, borrowers working in what Westpac classifies as "high-risk industries" – retail trade, accommodation, cafes and restaurants, transport and storage, culture and recreational services – together account for 19 per cent of the deferred mortgages.

Westpac's deferred mortgages – many of which have been taken out by dual-income professional couples – also tend to be larger in size.
According to Westpac's figures, 18 per cent of its deferred mortgages consist of home loans in excess of $1 million, while 11 per cent are for home loans between $750,000 and $1 million. In contrast, only 23 per cent of Westpac's overall home loan book consists of mortgages larger than $750,000._

_As of October 19, the average size of deferred mortgages was $401,000, which is significantly higher than the $275,000 average loan size across Westpac's mortgage book_.









						Westpac's well-heeled customers hit by COVID-19
					

Westpac's full-year profit result highlights the unexpected demographic that is now struggling to resume home loan payments.




					www.afr.com


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## qldfrog (2 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It appears that workers in *traditional white collar jobs *are facing the toughest challenge when it comes to resuming their home loan payments.
> 
> _According to Westpac, 27 per cent of these deferred mortgages – worth just over $5 billion – are held by people working in professional services, including the legal, information technology, business administration and consulting industries. A further 11 per cent of its deferred home loans – worth just over $2 billion – are mortgages taken out by people who work in finance and insurance. The communication sector has also been hard-hit by the pandemic, with people working in this industry accounting for 9 per cent of Westpac's deferred home loans – worth around $1.7 billion._
> 
> ...



that's very interesting data, could it be that this covid created economic assault is actually targetting the fake jobs in our society, all these no adding values in PR etc most job which can be iether culled altogether or just sent offshore as they are easily "remotable"


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## sptrawler (2 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It appears that workers in *traditional white collar jobs *are facing the toughest challenge when it comes to resuming their home loan payments.
> 
> _According to Westpac, 27 per cent of these deferred mortgages – worth just over $5 billion – are held by people working in professional services, including the legal, information technology, business administration and consulting industries. A further 11 per cent of its deferred home loans – worth just over $2 billion – are mortgages taken out by people who work in finance and insurance. The communication sector has also been hard-hit by the pandemic, with people working in this industry accounting for 9 per cent of Westpac's deferred home loans – worth around $1.7 billion._
> 
> ...



Sounds like the house price bubble, might start and deflate very soon.


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## over9k (2 November 2020)




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## qldfrog (3 November 2020)

Weak link with covid but covid is mostly a pretext anyway for this shamble, yet the economic consequences are real:
The spat between china and Australia is getting serious
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-delays-australian-lobster-imports-010919830.html
In a nation of services and baristas ..what is left when exports stop and cafes are into lockdown? Public servants?


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## over9k (3 November 2020)

With all these new lockdowns in the northern hemisphere, no nut november is going to be particularly difficult this year.


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## over9k (3 November 2020)

Bricks & mortar retail continues to fall.


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## sptrawler (3 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114155
> 
> 
> Bricks & mortar retail continues to fall.



We on the forum thought this may well happen, in W.A we are very fortunate in regard the lockdown period being very short, the malls only suffered for a relatively short period.
It must be catastrophic for landlords, when extended lockdowns are enforced, good find 9k.


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## sptrawler (3 November 2020)

RBA to cut cash rates to historic low and start a $100billion bond buy. May be time to strap ourselves in for some real infrastructure spending. 👍 









						RBA has woken from 'monetary slumber': Keating
					

Former prime minister Paul Keating says the RBA's rate cuts and $100 billion bond-buying program are aimed at undoing damage done during its "long, fruitless search for the inflation dragon".




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:

_The Reserve Bank has unveiled a wave of measures, including a cut in the official cash rate to a new record low, in a bid to drive down the nation's jobless rate and kickstart growth out of the coronavirus recession.

Following its traditional Melbourne Cup Day meeting, bank governor Philip Lowe said the cash rate would be cut to 0.1 per cent. It has been at 0.25 per cent since late March.


If passed on in full by commercial banks, a person with a $300,000 mortgage would save about $23 a month.

In addition, the bank said it would cut to 0.1 per cent the interest rate it is charging the nation's banks on a $200 billion line of credit that has been put in place to offer cheap money to small and medium-sized businesses.


Longer term, the RBA will expand its bond-buying program to purchase $100 billion over the next six months, revealing it would start targeting the interest rate on five and 10-year government bonds.

It will split the purchases, with 80 per cent to be of federal government bonds and 20 per cent from state government bonds. The bonds will be bought on the secondary market and not directly from governments.

This is in addition to the more than $60 billion the bank has spent since March on buying three-year government bonds.

Quantitative easing covers a series of measures undertaken by central banks to boost an economy that extend beyond cutting official interest rates. They include long-term guidance on interest rate settings and the purchase of government bonds, both measures undertaken by the RBA.
RBA governor Philip Lowe said getting unemployment down was the bank's central task_.

Now the trick will be how to get people off job seeker and jobkeeper, without media backlash.


----------



## over9k (3 November 2020)

Full hour to explain why australia is so f***ed. 

The medium length version would take about 5-10 mins. 

The short version is WE'RE BONED.


----------



## over9k (3 November 2020)

Also, lol, $23 a month, that'll fix things!


----------



## qldfrog (3 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Also, lol, $23 a month, that'll fix things!



and not forgetting that's less than the amount lost by the savers and retirees who will reduce their expenses even further


----------



## sptrawler (3 November 2020)

qldfrog said:


> and not forgetting that's less than the amount lost by the savers and retirees who will reduce their expenses even further



The forgotten ones lol, save all your life not to be a burden and one year ago you were going to get boned by the opposition, instead you get boned by a virus induced income collapse.
You can't win any way, but as you say frog, we just cut back our spending. This year I reckon we will get away with $30k at a squeeze, it will be great when I hit pension age, at least then there will be the Commonwealth Seniors health care card. 👍
I know "cry me a river",  😂 you have to be young and hard done by, for that to happen.


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## againsthegrain (3 November 2020)

*Commonwealth Bank places freeze on forced sales for virus impacted customers

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/0b907eef518a7f15892eba954b336277*


----------



## over9k (3 November 2020)

__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				








> "Real-estate companies are seeing clear evidence of New Yorkers and Londoners ditching city centers for suburbs as the pandemic changes the way people live and work.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





You're a few months behind the times there bloomberg.


----------



## sptrawler (4 November 2020)

Well if the multinationals think the game is over with the removal of Trump, I would think it has just sharpened the game, so at least the last four years and tarrifs haven't been for nothing.
The Chinese have obviously realised the game is up and will be spending a lot more on R & D IMO. So the U.S companies will have to pick up their game or it will be them that lose.
If Xi is correct and doubles China's economy in 5 years years, then if that equates to a doubling of the trade imbalance with the U.S, it will make for an interesting next U.S election.
The corona virus has certainly brought all this to a head, which in reality is a good thing, at least everyone is on the same page and can't bemoan the fact of not knowing.
Just my opinion.
Interesting article on the state of play in China.




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				



From the article:

_Xi has previously used the trade expo to reiterate China’s commitment to economic openness and the global trading order. During the first event in 2018, Xi announced a plan to set up a Nasdaq-style stock board in Shanghai, in an apparent bid to encourage internal innovation and reduce reliance on U.S. technology. The Star board has since emerged as the main listing venue for China’s leading tech companies, with Ant scheduled to make its debut there this week before the IPO was pulled.

Xi’s speech on Wednesday evening in Asia would be hours after polls close in the U.S. While he usually avoids overt references to the U.S. or its leaders, he took a veiled swipe at President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies at last year’s expo, saying “we need to tear down walls, not to erect walls.” Democrat Joe Biden, a past proponent of engagement with Beijing, has adopted a more critical tone during the campaign and pledged to enlist allies to a more coordinated effort to check China’s rise_.
_China has been seeking to use the import expo to showcase its demand potential for quality goods and services and bring in foreign direct investment. Multibillion-dollar purchase deals have been signed at previous trade fairs, although many haven’t materialized. The coronavirus pandemic has made it difficult to honor some of the contracts signed last year_.


----------



## noirua (5 November 2020)




----------



## over9k (5 November 2020)

How is this possible? I thought sweden had already eradicated the virus?


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## over9k (5 November 2020)

Quick breakdown of u.s gdp with effects:




There's obviously a typo - 2nd last box should be 2020.


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114229
> View attachment 114228
> 
> 
> How is this possible? I thought sweden had already eradicated the virus?



There is obviously more to this virus, than they are letting on.


----------



## over9k (6 November 2020)

It was more a dig at another member that was utterly convinced that sweden had solved everything and everyone else should just be copying them 


Anyways, european companies are now starting to get the jitters:





I'm kind of surprised that they even ordered them in the first place. They clearly spoke to absolutely nobody RE: what's going to happen with the virus & europe's winter. Even children know that winter is a far, far, FAR more infectious environment than summer. 

Unless they're up to some other play that I'm not privy to, ordering jets looks like utter lunacy.


----------



## over9k (6 November 2020)

Translation: Europe is boned and markets will be totally reliant on stimulus.


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## qldfrog (6 November 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There is obviously more to this virus, than they are letting on.



Fully agree but not in the way you mean, there is no real medical scientific issue there.so few people die of it it should be laughable.but the way the government goes to "protect" us is unsettling.
That thread should be renamed the economic implication of the covid19 reaction.it is different in that all this mess can be either blamed onto someone, stopped or carried on at will.
"We" decide a fake vaccine is released with 75pc protection aka a placebo,make it mandatory et voila, miracle, all is good, the australian icu are relieved and the economy reopen,people can check again voting ballots or travel again,...how to put that into your market charting


----------



## sptrawler (6 November 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Fully agree but not in the way you mean, there is no real medical scientific issue there.so few people die of it it should be laughable.but the way the government goes to "protect" us is unsettling.
> That thread should be renamed the economic implication of the covid19 reaction.it is different in that all this mess can be either blamed onto someone, stopped or carried on at will.
> "We" decide a fake vaccine is released with 75pc protection aka a placebo,make it mandatory et voila, miracle, all is good, the australian icu are relieved and the economy reopen,people can check again voting ballots or travel again,...how to put that into your market charting



We have said this since the beginning, the truth will come out eventually, whatever it is.


----------



## Junior (6 November 2020)

Leading causes of death in the US, in 2020 (so far).  Winter hasn't even begun yet.


----------



## basilio (6 November 2020)

Infection rate rapidly escalating in US.  Hospitalizations and deaths following . Little if any chance of changes in public policy practices before the end of January.  At some stage the impact on hospitals and public health will be critical. Effect on economic situation ?


----------



## over9k (6 November 2020)

Depends on the part of the economy. 

The northern hemisphere shuts down a LOT in winter anyway on account of the snow. I suspect the cold's going to mean far more deaths though. 

Ski resorts etc can pencil in a lost season.


----------



## qldfrog (6 November 2020)

Junior said:


> Leading causes of death in the US, in 2020 (so far).  Winter hasn't even begun yet.
> 
> View attachment 114260



death with covid or death from covid.....also you will not unexpectedly find a surge of cancer death next year all caused by Covid...lockdowns and scare tactics, this is happening right now everywhere, undiagnosed and treated too late, will they be added as covid death?
anyway, this, GW , Trump election frauds, the reset is there...buy more FB shares


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## over9k (6 November 2020)

I'm triple leveraged into the fangs with FNGU. I'm good


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## over9k (7 November 2020)

Oil consumption is loooow and the world has capacity to produce/supply at a rate far higher than is being burnt at the moment, so all the storage tanks are brimmed whilst vanishingly little is actually being pumped.


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## over9k (7 November 2020)

The winter wave be upon us.


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## sptrawler (7 November 2020)

No need for fuel or a new car, if you are in lockdown, gives all the manufacturers breathing space to re adjust for BEVs.
No demand, no production, very little loss.
Re tool and readjust for a n expected ramp up in demand, for a different product.
Just my opinion.


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## noirua (7 November 2020)

The Cruelty Behind Mink Lashes - PETA Australia
					

In Australia and other countries, mink lashes have become popular. They’re mink fur that’s been shaved off a mink’s body (either right before or directly after the animal is ...




					www.peta.org.au


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## sptrawler (8 November 2020)

I wonder what Greta has got to say about that?
Kill the mink, because they may infect us, wow we really are an interesting species.
We will rant and rave about killing the planet, because we use too much energy, but don't have any problem killing millions of little animals because they may infect us.
We are a strange species , it is all about us IMO


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## over9k (8 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Ski resorts etc can pencil in a lost season.




And as if like clockwork:




COME ON BLOOMBERG KEEP UP


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## over9k (8 November 2020)

At least governments are getting their stimulus/support together in a timely manner now:




Expect a LOT more of this "X closes one day, support package for X announced shortly after" stuff over the coming months. Should produce a LOT of troughs & peaks to buy & sell on.

I also expect even more of the "stay at home" type trade now that people are physically stuck indoors as well as legally - furniture, appliances, videogames, toys, internet & streaming usage, online ordering of absolutely *everything*, you name it.

Disclosure: I have loaded up my positions in fang, fedex, ups, wayfair, whirlpool, at&t, square, semiconductors, international paper, best buy, and mattel in anticipation. Combined, they are now 70% of my portfolio. I have chosen these because they were the best performers during the first lockdown wave so it stands to reason that they're going to be the best performers this time around too. You'll note that there are some conspicuous absences like ebay & paypal for that reason.

The rest are infrastructure plays in anticipation of big infrastructure packages being announced (which ALWAYS happens in economic downturns), pure growth speculation like nio, and work from home like zoom.

I own nothing to do with oil, aviation, or healthcare, and am very unlikely to for months.


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## over9k (9 November 2020)

And in today's least insightful analysis...







I CANNOT POSSIBLY THINK WHAT THE CAUSES COULD BE


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## over9k (10 November 2020)

I'd expect a pretty serious correction to come after today's madness as the market realises that we have winter to get through and the approval + rollout process of this virus is going to take _months. _

Edit:

Blackrock's Kate Moore already on the news 10 minutes into the open saying "don't get ahead of yourself, this winter wave is still going to happen and so we have some very tough months ahead of us:


----------



## over9k (10 November 2020)

Another new york lockdown is a virtual certainty, with other states (and countries) to follow.


----------



## over9k (10 November 2020)

And it begins.


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## over9k (10 November 2020)

Here's the megatech vs small caps over the year just for context. Today's just that tiny blip at the end there.


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## over9k (11 November 2020)

Even higher end bricks & mortar continues to hang by a thread.


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## moXJO (11 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114297
> 
> 
> Oil consumption is loooow and the world has capacity to produce/supply at a rate far higher than is being burnt at the moment, so all the storage tanks are brimmed whilst vanishingly little is actually being pumped.



Does anyone know if Australia is stocking oil reserves lately?

I heard we were. Probably a good time to do it.


----------



## over9k (11 November 2020)

The Government has splashed the cash for oil but how much have we bought?
					

The Energy Minister says the Australian taxpayer has got a great deal, and the country's oil reserves have been boosted, but just how much oil is now in storage is unclear.




					www.abc.net.au
				




It does actually cost to store oil in tanks etc. The yanks store the big amounts underground in old salt deposits.

It's actually really cool how they do it:

The salt caverns are created by drilling wells into massive salt domes and injecting them with freshwater to dissolve the salts. The dissolved salt is then pumped back out and either piped several miles offshore or reinjected into disposal wells. This process, called solution mining, creates caverns of very precise dimensions that can hold anywhere from 6 to 35 million barrels of oil. The average cavern can hold 10 million barrels of oil, and at 200 feet (61 meters) wide by 2,000 feet (610 meters) high, it's big enough to comfortably fit Chicago's Sears Tower inside.


While underground caverns may not seem like the best place to store an emergency oil supply, they're actually very secure. For one thing, since they're 2,000 to 4,000 feet (610 to 1,219 meters) underground, the extreme pressure prevents cracks from forming and leading to leaks [source: DOE]. Also, the natural temperature difference between the top and bottom of each cavern encourages the oil to circulate, which maintains its quality - meaning you don't have to spend money pumping to circulate the oil, it just sits there naturally churning around and kept from going stagnant through simple thermodynamics. So after the initial drilling and setup, you have a storage facility that's almost completely cost free and has an almost 0% possibility of some kind of accident or incident. 









						What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
					

The oil reserve managed by the U.S. federal government helps maintain price stability in the event of a disaster. Learn about the oil reserve.




					science.howstuffworks.com
				



.


Apparently AU doesn't actually have a lot of these, so we just rent them from the yanks: https://crudeoilpeak.info/australia-outsources-its-oil-reserve-problem-to-the-us


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## over9k (12 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114402
> 
> 
> I'd expect a pretty serious correction to come after today's madness as the market realises that we have winter to get through and the approval + rollout process of this virus is going to take _months. _
> ...




Yep, big tech & semiconductors are straight back on the menu, exactly as predicted:




It's almost as if producing & then building the infrastructure to deploy ~8 billion doses of a vaccine that needs to be stored & transported at -70 degrees is going to be a pretty difficult & time consuming thing to do and nothing is therefore going to change for quite a while.

Who would have thought?


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## over9k (12 November 2020)

Alright, big post coming up:


If you were to believe the quants, you'd think we were just in a widening market and had simply hit resistance no worries m8 everything's normal:






This is not so. The world (specifically, the northern hemisphere) is about to see a third wave that is going to be several factors worse than what we've seen so far. Do NOT pay attention to the technicals, they are NOT relevant in this market. This market IS the virus and there are a lot of dinosaurs and quants with their heads in the sand trying to figure things out using their number-crunching thinking that this is going to tell them what's going on like it usually does. It isn't. In non-normal market conditions, almost all financial modelling and quantitative analysis goes out the window. If you don't believe me, just ask the guys at long term capital management what I mean.

We also actually have data showing how the quants are doing vs the rest of us. Retail traders have actually traded the pandemic better than the dinosaurs running the hedge funds:




And we are doing so precisely because these are people that cannot see the forest for the trees and can only see their formulas and technical analysis - analysis which does _not _work in these market conditions. Lately (over the past few weeks) they've been banging on about a rotation from growth into value, which they've only just realised, days (weeks really) after it stopped, is no longer happening.

As a result, you now get headlines like this:




Followed up by ten minute segments talking to whatever talking head they can get on and asking questions like "can this rotation rotation continue?"

(yes, they really asked that, and yes, his answer was really just a long winded way of saying he had no idea)


This market is and has always been since the pandemic started, the virus. And the virus's worst hit is yet to come.

Global cases have just hit 50 million:




And the northern hemisphere's third wave, which actually began a month ago, is now well & truly under way:







Let me be clear here: This one is going to be much, much, MUCH worse than the other two and far more lethal on account of the cold's effect on both infectiousness and lethality. Ten minutes on google or five minutes talking to any epidemiologist will show you the exponential difference that environment makes to both.

Governments, it would seem, are actually ahead of the markets on this one though and aren't messing around this time.

New york's just announced shutting of bars etc:




Sports are done for:




Even sweden, the country all the morons were banging on about being a model response that we should all emulate is going back into lockdowns:




Russia's also absolutely shitting bricks and even halting food exports, and when you think about the winters they have, I'd be doing the same thing too:


----------



## over9k (12 November 2020)

And all of this comes together to see the previous move back into growth (and by growth I literally just mean big and stay-at-home (SAH) tech):





As all the stuff that went bananas on monday after the vaccine announcement gets massacred when everyone realise we're not going to actually have the vaccine until at least APRIL:




And europe starts to batten down the financial hatches:




Thus in completely unsurprising news, alibaba (the asian amazon) hits a new sales record:




And I fully expect similiar results to be mirrored in all of the megatech, stay-at-home tech, amazon et al.


I also mentioned a few pages back that governments always go on massive infrastructure binges in times of economic downturn and thus bought some caterpillar, and the czech's have just announced an infrastructure package just as expected:





My play from here on out is to expect exactly what we saw in the first virus waves, but amplified (and that goes for everything - cases, deaths, tech gains, everything) and I have therefore positioned in full expectation of a massive case of deja-vu, except worse (or better, depending on how you look at it).

What the morons on the news and running the hedge funds have missed is that this movement between growth and value has paralleled the _virus cases. _As virus cases have increased, the market has moved into growth (big and SAH tech) and as they have subsided, the market has moved away from them and back to value again.

What I am saying is that this market _is _the virus. Understand the aforementioned effect(s) the virus has on the market and you will understand what the market's going to do in this next wave which is not going to happen, but rather, *is* *already underway. *


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## over9k (12 November 2020)

Nahhhhh... you think? 


Expect stacks of headlines like this over the next few days.


----------



## moXJO (12 November 2020)

over9k said:


> The Government has splashed the cash for oil but how much have we bought?
> 
> 
> The Energy Minister says the Australian taxpayer has got a great deal, and the country's oil reserves have been boosted, but just how much oil is now in storage is unclear.
> ...



I heard (before internet times, not sure if it's true either) that the Russians drilled down deep and let off a couple of nukes to create caverns to store oil. Something about the oil being radioactive though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114498
> 
> 
> Nahhhhh... you think?
> ...




@over9k 

Basically as I said somewhere before on this thread re the course of markets through until 2022. 

Ask the Virus, forget the analysts. 

They are called analysts for a good reason, because they speak through their a$ses. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 November 2020)

moXJO said:


> I heard (before internet times, not sure if it's true either) that the Russians drilled down deep and let off a couple of nukes to create caverns to store oil. Something about the oil being radioactive though.



I remember that. Last sentence can be challenged. Heat? Half Life?

Buy SND


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 November 2020)

moXJO said:


> I heard (before internet times, not sure if it's true either) that the Russians drilled down deep and let off a couple of nukes to create caverns to store oil.



The US tried it a long time ago in an attempt to get naturally occurring oil and gas to flow in situations where conventional technology couldn’t get out of the ground.

It was claimed that it worked as such but with a lot of cost and downsides as you’d expect.


----------



## wayneL (12 November 2020)

Von Mises Institute view of proceedings, FWIW


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The US tried it a long time ago in an attempt to get naturally occurring oil and gas to flow in situations where conventional technology couldn’t get out of the ground.
> 
> It was claimed that it worked as such but with a lot of cost and downsides as you’d expect.



Sidebar









						Project Gasbuggy tests Nuclear "Fracking"
					

Government scientists blasted natural gas wells trying to increase production.   Project Gasbuggy was the first in a series of Atomic Energy Commission




					www-aoghs-org.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## qldfrog (12 November 2020)

wayneL said:


> Von Mises Institute view of proceedings, FWIW




as slowly but slowly the virus progresses, the death rates falls as people who were going to die..are dead.
And people are more and more protesting against these stupid general lockdowns..obviously not on your ABC.....
deranged governments are not excused by the sheeples.I hope many will watch this video


----------



## over9k (12 November 2020)

I wouldn't bet on that for winter though frog - the cold effects lethality significantly. 

But lockdowns etc aren't dictated by deaths, rather, they are dictated by case numbers, so it's kind of moot anyway.


----------



## over9k (13 November 2020)

Rotation now seems to be fully underway. I'm going to start posting the premarket futures vs close numbers to see if they remain in any way predictive - as I said in the other post, all the old rules of engagement go out the window now.

For those who don't know - the nasdaq is heaviest tech and the dow is the lightest. The dow is heavy industrials. The S&P is more balanced. So a tech run will pump the nasdaq the most. The dow being negative whilst the nasdaq being positive is a BIG divergence. It basically means that value & industrials are getting massacred whilst growth/tech is screaming.


----------



## over9k (13 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114498
> 
> 
> Nahhhhh... you think?
> ...







Exactly as predicted, and he's of course calling it all AFTER it's already in motion too. Any moron can tell you something AFTER the fact.

It's little wonder the institutions are doing so poorly.


----------



## over9k (13 November 2020)

Alright so the entire northern hemisphere is now past the point of no return:







I mentioned previously that I was going to compare futures vs close numbers and see how predictive they were, and here they are:




vs




Whilst all indices were down, you'll note that there's a sold divergence between the nasdaq & the dow, just like pre-market. Whilst almost everything was down for the day, tech was down the least, and so the tech heavy index remains the best.



Almost everything was massacred, especially the travel, crowd etc reopening stocks:




However, the work-from-home companies were deep into the green:




Signalling what I think I've made pretty obvious by now. Yes I hold all three and I'm very overweight zoom.

If there was any doubt left as to how defensive the market has now gone, the fact that bonds screamed should seal it:



Tech's actually done really well just for the month so far even with the monday-tuesday post-vaccine massacre and there's 17 days left yet:





I also mentioned infrastructure plays when governments inevitably announce massive infrastructure spends, and even the talking heads are now (finally) talking about that too:




Another thing that keeps getting mentioned is how house prices have kept running. Don't be fooled into thinking that this is indicative of a healthy economy or something. This is purely a function of how cheap credit (loans) now are. If you dump the interest rate, people can (and will) be able to borrow and therefore bid more for housing. If inflation was measured how it should be, this should have a major effect on the inflation rate and thus actually signal the fed to raise rates, but because it isn't, house prices can (and do, and have) skyrocket and interest rates will still be kept low, keeping house prices soaring:


----------



## over9k (13 November 2020)

Finally, I showed in the last post how there was a divergence in futures which was reflected in the closing numbers for the three major indices, and the same futures divergence again exists as of 11.30am AEDT, so we can expect to see the same divergence and thus continuation of what's obviously going on again tonight:


----------



## over9k (14 November 2020)

Alright so it was a funny day.

Let's dispense with the technicals first. This is the kind of stuff you get from quants after a vaccine announcement:




Apparently the models gave a 1 in 16 quadrillion possibility of monday occurring. Like yep, ok m9. Let's use a mathematical model when a literal complete & total game changer of a vaccine could be announced at literally any moment. You idiot. 


The talking heads are also pointing to technical analysis like trading ranges etc:




If we were to believe them, the market is "stuck in a range" and we're going to see a pullback from here. We'll see how accurate this is. I actually think it might very well be, but not for the reason they think. The reason(s) why I think can be summarised as follows:

















And consumers' gut feeling is right & reflecting all of this IMO:




And the people that do this kind of thing have even created metrics/indices of shutdown severity:


----------



## over9k (14 November 2020)

Now for the actual day itself:





Futures weren't predictive. Or at least, not for the day. You'll see that the R2000 index is way above the others. More on this in a moment.

Take a look at the fangs early in the day, as well as NIO (yes I hold both):






There are other graphs which look very similiar to this, but we'll stick with just these for now on account of the fact that I hold both so you can all know there's no funny business going on here.

Notice how both are well into the green both at and continuing from the open, before nosediving at almost the exact same time. Something triggered a run on both, and if you take a look at tesla, it follows a very similiar path as well:




What actually triggered these runs I have no idea and there's absolutely nothing on the news, no new batch of data, nothing I can find that's a smoking gun, which is just sometimes the way things are. But what's key to note is how everything that was hammered on the day pulled _hard _into the close. I suspect this was an awful lot of the smart money spotting a dip and buying right into it in anticipation of some pretty nasty virus news over the weekend. I tend to agree with that too.

As for what's actually happened on the day, well the day itself was a total anomaly. You'd be forgiven for thinking that tech was smashed whilst industrials pulled hard, but that's not the case. Here's the day by sectors:




What really pumped was _energy. _In fact, aside from monday's madness on the vaccine announcement, this was energy's best day since april. You would think this very strange considering that we're going into winter now, but what's happened is that the vaccine news has meant that a tremendous number of companies have now been able to get the loans they've needed to ride the storm out now that lenders have some (any) assurance that there is actually a light at the end of the tunnel and when that tunnel endpoint will actually be. For those who don't know, energy companies have been going bankrupt one after another after another and so that had only made lenders even more reluctant to loan them money, ergo creating a positive feedback loop no different to when there's a run on a bank. As a result, energy, perhaps the hardest hit sector outside of aviation:




Can actually start to price a recovery in.

Let me be clear here: This is the market pricing in stuff that's not going to actually happen (i.e any decent increase in energy demand) for _months. _But I should hope I don't have to explain what opportunity cost is.

If you take a look at the airlines, you'll see that the exact same thing has also happened with them as well.

But the real winner for both the day and the week was/is small caps, which I'll cover in the next post.


----------



## over9k (14 November 2020)

Ok so the thing to remain cognisant of is that we're now in a post-vaccine market. The question we need to ask ourselves is what that announcement changes (or, doesn't change).

Prior to monday, it was total consensus to run what's known as a "barbell spread" - that is, something that's heavy on both ends. Heavy megacaps, and heavy microcaps. This was absolutely true.

The R2000 is an entire index of microcaps. No such index really exists of the inverse unless you count NYFANG, but this has a tiny number of stocks compared to the 2000 we're comparing it to. There are ETF's that focus on big companies though, and they are myriad.


Taking a look at the R2000, we can see that it was outperforming the other major indices massively pre-vaccine:




With the nasdaq in purple, which is mega-tech heavy, the only one ever getting above it and even then it was only briefly during the august madness, hence the aforementioned barbell spread being the play of the year (so far).

The question this post is about is whether this barbell spread is still the way to go.

Well, let's take a look at the week, which is perfect as the vaccine was conveniently (the conspiracy theorist in me says it was no coincidence) announced on monday:




As you can see, it's absolutely smoked the other indices, even beating out NYFANG. But there's more to it.

After monday's lunacy, we saw an awful lot of correction - the whole week's well into the green, but the dow for example has, aside from today's funny business with energy, been on a correction ever since monday and ended the week _lower _than its monday peak. This isn't so for the R2000. That kept climbing even _after _monday's post-vaccine bounce. Even when the megatech was slammed (so the other end of the "barbell" was hit), the R2000 kept pulling and pulling hard:




So in other words, not only were small caps the way to go before the vaccine announcement, but they've also run the hardest of everything even _post _vaccine/when everyone have been carrying on about a rotation being underway.

So microcaps are a winner either way, which is great - it tells us to load up on microcaps (even just an R2000 ETF) as they keep pulling whether this alleged rotation is actually occurring or not and it therefore also tells us to keep holding if we were already running a barbell spread pre-vaccine.

For anyone who wants to do so, the regular index-tracking ETF is RUT and the 3x leveraged is TNA.


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## over9k (14 November 2020)

Yep just link me to the thread you want them in and I'll post them


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## over9k (14 November 2020)

Oh, there was also a lot of chat in the FMG thread about iron ore, minerals etc going forward. I pointed out in that thread the same thing I have in this one about how governments go on infrastructure binges during economic downturns and iron ore demand will therefore remain very strong for years yet, and as if on queue:


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## over9k (14 November 2020)

Continuing my last post on the market, here's a bit of data on just how much money rushed into the R2000 this week:




And a bit of "no **** sherlock" analysis from david westin:


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## over9k (14 November 2020)

over9k said:


> For anyone who wants to do so, the regular index-tracking ETF is RUT and the 3x leveraged is TNA.




Please note, this is an error. RUT is the yahoo finance link shortcut. IWM is the 1x ETF.


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## over9k (15 November 2020)

A full article from the saltmine at bloomberg having a cry about retail traders showing the pro's up:





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




Retail traders have done well because they haven't been so stupid as to think that quantitative trading/financial modelling is actually valid/functional in an atypical market. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Modelling only works under normal market conditions and if anyone wants a mind-blowing lesson on how this was learnt the hard way, look up what happened to "long term capital management" in the 90's.


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## qldfrog (15 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114682
> 
> 
> A full article from the saltmine at bloomberg having a cry about retail traders showing the pro's up:
> ...



Another way to see it is to acknowledge that trading is first of all a psyche game
Fear greed etc
Follow the lemmings, jump before the cliff is how to win
Anyone applying sciences or stats to the covid based reset will fail lamely
So you need to be excited when a vaccine has shown some success..on an illness so mild thar 75% of affected people are not even aware, and you need to be scare when the number of positive tests jumps.
And it will carry on, worse in winter..we have known that for 6 months, until it run its course vaccine or not
Lockdown delaying the inevitable but not suppressing it, it seems governments will carry on this game for a while.
So models,stats are irrelevant now so the Robin hood wins
The scare tactic targets the populace,which invests accordingly and win😊
Based on these premises, what will be interesting will be the asx response in oz next winter.april 2021 or so when surprise..covid might restart here but without the experience and immunity gathered overseas.
We might see a split then from the US market.
In the meantime my systems are running...


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## over9k (16 November 2020)

Done some digging into vaccines. This took far too long to find out than it should have:

The pfizer one is about the worst kind possible. It has to be stored at -70, which is an absolute nightmare to actually deploy. Even the first world will have major difficulties with it. 

But the moderna one, results due out this week, only needs to be stored at -20, which means we can use our existing freezer infrastructure (cold rooms, refrigerated trucks etc etc) to deploy that so, so, SO much easier.

So the powers that be are sitting on their hands waiting for these results because we obviously don't want to start building an entire global supply chain of -70 degree (so we're talking liquid nitrogen/dry ice temps here) infrastructure when we have something that will work with every cold room/refrigerated truck on earth just around the corner. 

If the moderna one is successful, that's obviously going to be the one that will be rolled out. Those results are due this week and I have an order in to buy some moderna at open tonight. 

Additionally, zoom's earnings are due out in a fortnight and the last ones were 400% of estimates. Obviously if the moderna news is good, zoom will plummet and moderna will skyrocket, so I'll be nuking my moderna position and buying some zoom in the period between moderna news & zoom news as I expect zoom to skyrocket once earnings are reported. I'll obviously be doing the same thing if the trial fail as I expect a zoom bump on earnings either way, it's just that i'll have a lot more to pump into it if my moderna position goes stratospheric. 

Fingers crossed!


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## againsthegrain (16 November 2020)

-


over9k said:


> Done some digging into vaccines. This took far too long to find out than it should have:
> 
> The pfizer one is about the worst kind possible. It has to be stored at -70, which is an absolute nightmare to actually deploy. Even the first world will have major difficulties with it.
> 
> ...






> *Pfizer CEO* Albert Bourla raked in more than three times his base salary when he *sold* about *60*% of his stock on Monday, shortly after trumpeting the stellar performance of his company's COVID-19 vaccine in a late-stage trial.




Sounds like he has faith


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## Smurf1976 (16 November 2020)

I see on the news there are calls to substantially increase ventilation rates in buildings so as to reduce the spread of the virus.

On one hand that’s interesting to say the least since the same was done, in the US most notably, during the Spanish Flu a century ago and later debunked as an ineffective measure which simply wasted fuel.

I’ll pass on the medical side but if it happens then economically it’s good news for the electricity, gas and to a lesser extent oil industries given that it’ll boost energy consumption.

Not good news for the climate change issue though since it’ll also boost CO2 emissions indeed keeping energy use down is the reason ventilation rates are kept low in the first place.


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## over9k (17 November 2020)

Moderna vaccine announced: 94.5% effective, only needs to be stored at -20 degrees. Also dramatically reduces the effects of the disease if it doesn't work completely. Can be stored in a normal freezer for 30 days and does not require dilution when administered. It can be administered at hospitals, pharmacies, basically everywhere. Military is going to be deployed in massive field hospitals etc as well. Due to being an MRNA-type vaccine, they also reckon it'll only take them about a month to tweak it to any mutations that the virus has, should it have any.

Study will be fully complete and in for FDA fast track/emergency approval within a fortnight.

_Excellent _news.

I'll post the interview once the news puts it on youtube.


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## over9k (17 November 2020)

Alright so let's dispense with the weekend virus news before we get to the meaty stuff:












Please note that this has barely been covered today (most of this is from the weekend) on account of the, you know, vaccine news, but that doesn't mean it's gone away and I suspect the news will be right back on it now that the vaccine stuff is over on account of the aforementioned virus lack-of-going-away. Do NOT dismiss this as irrelevant now or something. It'll be right back all over the news pretty bloody quickly I suspect.


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## over9k (17 November 2020)

Alright so moderna's vaccine news is great, it's an effective vaccine that we can actually roll out using the world's existing cold storage infrastructure which is _excellent, _it's about as good as we could have hoped for. I won't go over all of this again as I covered the cliff notes in a previous post, but I will cover how this has effected the markets:


The way it's effected the markets is to give us a case of deja-vu:




Whilst tech was the worst performing on the day, it was still well into the green and it was also once again the _russell 2000  _(microcaps) that lead the charge. It absolutely smoked the other indices.

But let's get more granular. What soared last time?


Remember me talking about energy & reopening stocks like airlines, cruise companies et al?

Well, what do you think went bonkers today?

Energy (XLE):




And airlines et al!




However, let's remember that last week (the vaccines have both conveniently been announced before monday market open, making comparisons very easy) after the initial monday madness, everything went on a pretty solid melt and then recovered a bit on friday but still closed the week _down _off its monday peak.

Now if you were to ask the retards in the institutions, the vaccine changes everything and we basically invert everything we've been doing up until this point:




Now, to be fair, that does actually sound relatively intuitive. Now that we have a vaccine, things can start to return to normal, right?

Well, let's compare how the mid-caps have run post-vaccine (both of them) to the alternatives and find out. Below is a graph of all of the mid-cap ETF's vs IWM, the russell-2000 tracking ETF: 
	

		
			
		

		
	




As you can see, only one of them, DON, has actually managed to beat a simple index etf. You were overwhelmingly likely to be _behind _the market if you'd (admittedly fairly reasonably) assumed that either of these vaccines actually change everything/flip the table, so to speak.

The difference becomes even more profound when you compare leveraged etf's. Here's a comparison of the triple-leveraged R2000 tracking ETF (TNA) vs both of the triple-levered mid-cap ones:




As you can see, the only mid-cap etf that beat the R2000 isn't available in a triple leveraged, so if you'd levered into midcaps, you would again, be quite a bit behind.

Whilst tech has done relatively (relatively) poorly over the past week or so and you would have been better off with your money in mid-caps, this is not true for the microcap end of our "barbell".

The above data tells us that microcaps are _still _the way to go and thus we do not need to nuke the "light" end of our "barbell" and move everything into the middle. If you were in a leveraged etf, there was simply no point (vaccine day _or_ the down days after it) at which you weren't better off with your money in microcaps. 

The institutions have again only gotten it half-right, and I think they've actually missed a lot of things with tech (which I was fully expecting to rally today but the vaccine news is obviously the mother of all curveballs) and I'll get into that in the next post.


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## over9k (17 November 2020)

Alright so to understand the other end of the "barbell spread" we need to look at the economy big picture. What the virus has done is create a far more winner-take-all type of market across the board in basically every industry because fact is that the bigger the company the more of a hit is necessary to wipe it out. As an extension of that, the bigger the company, the easier it is for that company to raise the finance necessary to ride the storm out. As a result, small businesses, small mum & dad shops and the like have been absolutely massacred leaving whatever market share remained to channel into the big players.

In short, main street gets slaughtered whilst wall street swoops in and picks up the spoils:





When you combine this with the fact that everything that could go online, did go online, you can understand how putting the two together into big and tech gets us megatech companies like facebook, amazon et al (there's an index for this called nyfang) absolutely soaring and in fact driving the gains of most of the market, sending the nasdaq way, way, way above the dow.

Now, what drove this was first lockdowns and then voluntary human isolation after that. What drove both of those actions were virus numbers. In short, the more virus, the more lockdowns/isolation and thus the more money is driven into big tech.

The market knew this. It also (reasonably) assumes that a vaccine reverses all of this. Hence why this tech was absolutely _massacred _last monday after the vaccine announcement.

Below is a graph of triple leveraged etf's - one for midcaps (MIDU), one for semiconductors/microchips (SOXL), one for the S&P 500 tech index (TECL), one for NYFANG (FNGU), and then just zoom on its own (ZM):




Now it's pretty obvious to see that the more the businesses relied on everyone being stuck indoors etc, the harder it was hit. That's completely unsurprising. But what isn't surprising (to anyone paying attention) is how they recovered since bottoming out. Take a look at the difference in last week's bottom-out vs its close. You'll see that the midcap etf didn't actually move that much and until friday was actually _decreasing _whist the others were _increasing. _Even then, the difference between its bottom out and friday's close number is _huge _compared to the others.

In short, midcaps did not keep pulling after the bottom-out. In fact, the post-vaccine madness actually started to reverse itself.

It was my very firm opinion that this would have kept going and some simple extrapolation tells us that it wouldn't have been long before the post-vaccine runs/drops had all but erased themselves and the reason for that was very simple and was even being talked about (as I posted) by the talking heads on the news:

_The virus hadn't gone away. _

In fact, the virus numbers were only getting worse and the market, after pulling itself together, was responding to that reality.

Now let's take a look at what happened with _today's _vaccine announcement, marked on the chart here: 
	

		
			
		

		
	




Notice how the mid-cap etf did the same thing again but semiconductors/tech/fang/zoom _didn't? _

All the others plummeted last time whereas they barely moved today. In fact, zoom only dropped 1.1% whilst the fangs and tech _gained _and semiconductors actually _beat _the midcaps:




This tells us that the market knows that monday's reaction was overblown. It knows that even this far better vaccine from moderna is not a silver bullet that just changes everything on the spot and that we have skyrocketing virus numbers and an absolute hell of a winter to get through first. The above movements (or lack thereof) are not the only smoking guns for this either:




I'm not going to move from megatech to midcaps... yet. I want to see how the market plays the next few days. Considering that there aren't any other vaccines with results due soon, if my hunch is correct, from this moment onwards, the only news is going to be virus news, and the markets are going to respond accordingly just like they were pre-moderna vaccine.

Admittedly it's only two hours after close, but here are the futures as of 10.12am AEDT:




If I've eaten my words in a few days' time, it'll be time to adjust.


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## Smurf1976 (17 November 2020)

over9k said:


> it's an effective vaccine that we can actually roll out using the world's existing cold storage infrastructure



For the record, any decent household type freezer can achieve -20C, indeed they normally operate at -18 which is well within their capabilities, so storage at that temperature won't be at all difficult in practice given that even common household appliances can do it.


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## sptrawler (17 November 2020)

On the subject of virus induced digital currency disruption quite a good overview article today.








						Disrupting the disrupters: China is slamming the brakes on Big Tech
					

One of the most difficult challenges facing regulators around the world is how to deal with the explosive growth and increasing power of the big tech companies. China has just shown how it will deal with them.




					www.theage.com.au
				




Of interest and a subject we have discussed several times, from the article:

_There has been explosive growth in the non-bank, or shadow-banking, sector since the GFC as new players without the capital and liquidity requirements of the regulated institutions and, with regulated access to their data, are eroding their traditional dominance.
The growth of the mega-techs is also raising a long-term question mark over the ability of the regulators’ to maintain the stability of financial systems and governments’ ability to protect consumers, protect their data, implement their own monetary policies and police money-laundering, cybercrime and tax evasion. There’s also the small matter if the tax they pay, or don’t pay.

So far the authorities have tended have a laissez-faire stance, seeing more benefit in the innovation and disruption than downside. That now, however, appears to be changing in line with the sheer scale and global market power the biggest of the tech groups have achieved.
Perhaps it isn’t surprising that China, given the authoritarian nature of its governance, has been among the first to react.
Loading
While the external focus of the suite of new regulations has been on its impact on Jack Ma’s Ant Group and its now-aborted IPO, they apply far more broadly and, rather than simply responding to the imminence of Ant’s IPO (or, as some have suggested, inflammatory comments by Ma in the lead-up to its launch) have been years in the making.
China has special concerns about fintechs and shadow banking more broadly. For at least the last four or five years it has been showing increasing angst about the growth in its non-bank financial sector, the rise, and rise, of the levels of leverage in its household and small business sector and the relationship between its banks and non-banks_.

IMO this could be the start of much stricter control over fintech companies, it is difficult for a government to run monetary policy, when they don't own the currency.


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## over9k (17 November 2020)

Of course. It's only an issue when it threatens the politicians/vested interests/power. Until then, as far as the power is concerned, it's everyone else's problem. 

The bitcoin bulls had this conversation years ago.


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## over9k (18 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> For the record, any decent household type freezer can achieve -20C, indeed they normally operate at -18 which is well within their capabilities, so storage at that temperature won't be at all difficult in practice given that even common household appliances can do it.



Exactly right. Hence why I didn't lose my mind over the pfizer vaccine but I consider the moderna one to actually be a game changer - it would have taken, at best, _months _just to build the cold-chain infrastructure for the pfizer one. Moderna's can be put in any household/industrial/etc etc freezer. Hell, we can transport it in normal freezer trucks/containers. 

Don't get me wrong, we're still going to see the winter wave, but once we're through that we'll be well & truly on the home stretch. There _is _light at the end of the tunnel now.


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## over9k (18 November 2020)

Alright so the news is absolutely nothing but virus numbers now. Here they are in summary:




And here they are in a few more specifics:




Consequence:




The americans are approaching things a little bit differently though. They _really _don't want to lock things down any more, and so are using positive test _rates _rather than numbers:




So despite news like this:




The markets simply don't care (because as if we're going to roll the pfizer vaccine out anyway).


Instead, the day was completely defensive with bonds running (relatively) hard:




However, on a day when almost everything was in the red, it was once again the R2000 that was head & shoulders above the other indices:




Not just beating the dow by nearly a full percentage point, but also the _only _index actually into the green. In other words, microcaps are not just gaining the most on positive days but are even actually gaining when _all _the other indices are into the red and the market has gone so defensive as to move into _bonds, _yields on which are currently at record lows near zero - putting them in the realm of being as defensive as a rotation into _cash. _

You'll also note that the tech-heavy nasdaq lost just a third of what the dow did, and I'll get into both that and the aforementioned lack of bond yield in the next post.


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## over9k (18 November 2020)

Alright so the following might seem a little bit "no **** sherlock":




But it was broadcast in the context of three major events: First, home depot reported earnings, second, amazon announced its online/digital pharmacy service (so the ability to order drugs on amazon.com) and third, retail data was released.

Home depot reported more big earnings numbers:




But actually dropped in response and as you can see below, the share price has been absolutely flat for over three months now:




So the question we have to ask ourselves is, of course, why.

Well, retail data tells us the whole story here:




What the home depot people correctly pointed out is that there are a lot of these stay-at-home stocks that are _one time events. _In other words, what we've seen is a big spike in purchases of "long term" goods, i.e the total opposite of consumables. Things like furniture, whitegoods, home renovations and the like. These are items which once purchased are kept for years and years and years (usually decades) and so while sales are huge now, they are _not _going to remain so and as you can see from the above data, haven't - once the initial rush was over, well, it was over. Once you've bought a couch or whatever you're not going to buy another one for quite a while are you?

This is in stark contrast to many other goods however. I loaded up on products with much faster life cycles - things like semiconductor etf's (electronic items are in a perpetual state of movement to obsolescence and so being rebought _constantly_) but avoided these once-off-product selling companies like wayfair, harvey norman etc, and I've shown just how well semiconductors have done lately. They dropped today, but overall, they've been _incredibly _resilient.



This all coincided with amazon's "digital pharmacy" going online:




Which matters because this is obviously yet another bricks & mortar business that despite being pretty resilient to long term trends that have obliterated many other businesses, is now going to be absolutely massacred by online sales/e-tail just like all the others have, and the markets know it:




Furthermore, if we channel our business degrees here then the next move for amazon is obviously going to be vertical integration - that is, owning their own supply chain (producing their own drugs) where they can, so all the generic alternative drugs that can be produced by anyone on account of the patents expiring are now going to be annihilated too.



Now recall my previous post about bond yields being so low that they're damn near cash levels of a defensive play/port of last resort.

Well, I'm not the only person to notice this. There's a great article by Susan Barton here talking about trying to find defensive plays other than bonds and even forex being a better defensive play because of just how abysmal the yields currently are (and with no signs of increasing either):





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




But the real defensive play here even now, is tech. In fact, even the institutions have finally figured this out:




And, as I've shown over the past few pages, aside from the days with vaccine madness, tech has been the place to be along with the microcaps and today was no exception. Amazon's just started the ball rolling on the obliteration of yet another bricks & mortar business.

This will obviously cease to be the optimal play at some point (probably just after christmas) but for the time being, we stick with tech along with microcaps.



In summary, we keep the barbell spread.


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## over9k (18 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 114682
> 
> 
> A full article from the saltmine at bloomberg having a cry about retail traders showing the pro's up:
> ...




Ok so remember this post?

Well:




Lol. 


Not being funny here, how clueless do you have to be to genuinely think that modelling is still valid in this environment?


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## cutz (18 November 2020)

So in SA a security guard who works at a medi hotel also has a part time job in a pizza bar, now the states in lockdown !!!  How the kcuf does this happen !!!!

Clearly similar also happened in Vic, low paid workers holding down multiple jobs, this should have been stamped out months ago, pay the security guards properly and make sure they don't work at medi hotels and restaurants at the same time . FFS !!!


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## wabullfrog (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> So in SA a security guard who works at a medi hotel also has a part time job in a pizza bar, now the states in lockdown !!!  How the kcuf does this happen !!!!
> 
> Clearly similar also happened in Vic, low paid workers holding down multiple jobs, this should have been stamped out months ago, pay the security guards properly and make sure they don't work at medi hotels and restaurants at the same time . FFS !!!




End result SA now in a 6 day lockdown.


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## over9k (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> So in SA a security guard who works at a medi hotel also has a part time job in a pizza bar, now the states in lockdown !!!  How the kcuf does this happen !!!!
> 
> Clearly similar also happened in Vic, low paid workers holding down multiple jobs, this should have been stamped out months ago, pay the security guards properly and make sure they don't work at medi hotels and restaurants at the same time . FFS !!!



Yeah it's kind of surprising that there isn't some kind of self-isolation condition(s) with having that job. You'd obviously have to pay them more, but so what? The costs of contact tracing would be 1000x any extra wages you'd have to pay.  


Governments trying to cheap out as usual.


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## cutz (18 November 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> End result SA now in a 6 day lockdown.




Apparently, according to the press conference, not exact wording but the message I understood was.. the state cannot impose restrictions on people's freedom to hold down multiple jobs including medi hotels in the mix... those freedoms have enabled medi hotel leakage and a potential repeat of Vic's disaster... I really hope I'm wrong !


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## Smurf1976 (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> So in SA a security guard who works at a medi hotel also has a part time job in a pizza bar, now the states in lockdown !!! How the kcuf does this happen !!!!



The concept of quarantine is like many things. Crucially important but inherently simple and easy to understand for anyone who wants to understand.

A mistake is someone failing to pay their gas bill on time or driving 5 km/h over the limit at the bottom of a hill, those things could reasonably be described as unintended mistakes. Having people working in quarantine facilities also working in another place that involves contact with the public is however not something that could sensibly be described as a mistake. That's simply outright stupidity and represents either a serious misunderstanding of the entire concept of quarantine or reckless behaviour.

Looking at this, I'm thinking that the wrong sort of people have been placed in charge. Quarantine doesn't need a doctor as the boss but it does need someone who's good at religiously following and enforcing rules and who won't bow to pressure no matter who it comes from.

Among others, aircraft captains come to mind as one group who generally have the right attitude and there's quite a few of those out of work right now. They're not experts on quarantine but they're good at taking charge, following procedures to the letter and making sure others do likewise etc and that's the skill that seems to be lacking in all of this.


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## Smurf1976 (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> the message I understood was.. the state cannot impose restrictions on people's freedom to hold down multiple jobs including medi hotels in the mix...



I'm not arguing with your post or comment but if that's true then it's ridiculous.

I've personally been employed in the past in a job which precluded any other employment without the express permission of senior management.


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## cutz (18 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not arguing with your post or comment but if that's true then it's ridiculous.
> 
> I've personally been employed in the past in a job which precluded any other employment without the express permission of senior management.




Unbelievable but true, the ABC may have it on iView, it's difficult to watch.


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## qldfrog (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> Unbelievable but true, the ABC may have it on iView, it's difficult to watch.



Actually who really care,seriously, if not today then tomorrow, with a truck driver, by contact via a rubbish bin, an airvent as in Hong Kong, elimination / eradication is a pipe dream...
We are heading into summer so all will be good for the next 4 months here but northern hemisphere will have plenty of new contamination, not thatbit really matters as many of the frails are already gone and the virus is weakening..as per normal virus behaviour.
So more cases, even less death, but gov pushing the scare tactic even further
So invest in the firms of  utopia of the great reset and first xnd giremost orotect your assets, we should see some serious unfolding in the next 6 months


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## satanoperca (18 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah it's kind of surprising that there isn't some kind of self-isolation condition(s) with having that job. You'd obviously have to pay them more, but so what? The costs of contact tracing would be 1000x any extra wages you'd have to pay.
> 
> 
> Governments trying to cheap out as usual.



Is that your solution! Crap you didn't provide a possible solution.


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 November 2020)

It is pointless blaming the Health Services or Premiers of Victoria or SA for the recent outbreaks of Covid in those states. It is what it is. Quarantine in a mollycoddled 21st Century is in hotels for gawds sake. As a teenager I spent some months as a night porter in a large metropolitan hotel during school holidays and hotels are utter dens of iniquity, the posher the more iniquitous. 

Further the keepers of the well people awaiting 14 day clearance in quarantine is in the hands of minimally paid security guards. 

The security guards normal jobs are shining lights in to industrial complexes at night-time or enduring Kiwi or Pacific Islander jokes from stoned or drunk patrons of night clubs of a weekend, or calling a copper. 

No amount of training or advice will prevent these people from stuffing up unintentionally because they are not Quarantine trained or Quarantine officers. They have second jobs because they are poorly paid, are often migrants and want a better life for their children.

Only the Police or Army are suitable to fulfil this role. 

If I were in charge I would quarantine everyone in a remote camp such as was done in Portsea for Victoria last century or on Christmas Island for returning Australians from overseas. It would be run by the Army and would have medical backup.

We need to harden up as a nation. Accept orders. Quarantine in some gawd awful faraway place and allowed leave when cleared by a test. 

And stop whinging.

gg


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## cutz (18 November 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Actually who really care,seriously, if not today then tomorrow, with a truck driver, by contact via a rubbish bin, an airvent as in Hong Kong, elimination / eradication is a pipe dream...
> We are heading into summer so all will be good for the next 4 months here but northern hemisphere will have plenty of new contamination, not thatbit really matters as many of the frails are already gone and the virus is weakening..as per normal virus behaviour.
> So more cases, even less death, but gov pushing the scare tactic even further
> So invest in the firms of  utopia of the great reset and first xnd giremost orotect your assets, we should see some serious unfolding in the next 6 months




Hi Frog,

I agree with your sentiments, personally I do not fear the virus, my feeling is that it will not be eradicated. I fear more the collateral damage that has been unleased upon society and especially our young , too much to mention,  the disintegration of our nation into island states...

My comments are more based around the strategy that has been decided on our behalf and the incompetence in the execution.


----------



## cutz (18 November 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Only the Police or Army are suitable to fulfil this role.
> 
> If I were in charge I would quarantine everyone in a remote camp such as was done in Portsea for Victoria last century or on Christmas Island for returning Australians from overseas. It would be run by the Army and would have medical backup.
> 
> ...




Exactly, quarantine is what has been decided on , do it properly !

Don't stuff it up then cover it up using " the science says " as an excuse to unleash some more pain.


----------



## greggles (18 November 2020)

One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.









						Hospitals overrun as U.S. reports 1 million new coronavirus cases in a week
					

Hospitals are overwhelmed with the growing number COVID-19 patients being brought in, while state leaders have announced new measures to try to control the spread of the virus.




					www.cbsnews.com
				




This is now completely out of control in the USA and will eventually infect everyone in the country, bar those who are hiding out in concrete bunkers or isolated cabins until a working vaccine is released.

The economic effects will be profound and long lasting.


----------



## wayneL (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> personally I do not fear the virus,




The WHO, and anyone who has half of clue about this virus agrees with you.

Everything else I'm finding rather comical and absurd.

</unpopularopinion>


----------



## cutz (18 November 2020)

Apparently the SA case is a new strain  “The other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far as they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms, but have been able to pass it other people "   









						SA battles new ‘fast-moving’ coronavirus strain
					

A COVID-19 cluster in Adelaide’s north grew to 22 on Wednesday as thousands of people continued to flock to testing stations.




					thewest.com.au
				





Hmmmm ??


----------



## over9k (18 November 2020)

greggles said:


> One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I've been saying this for a while greggles, keep up  


Jokes aside - I saw you read my other posts. I'm holding onto my tech positions for a reason


----------



## sptrawler (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> Apparently the SA case is a new strain  “The other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far as they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms, but have been able to pass it other people "
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting for sure, new strain, yet to be released vaccine.


----------



## qldfrog (18 November 2020)

cutz said:


> Apparently the SA case is a new strain  “The other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far as they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms, but have been able to pass it other people "
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Guess what,that is covid19 where 75% of contaminated people are not even aware...
Surprise surprise, after meeting the real thing,mosts are shocked it is nowhere as horrendous as described in the media...
At least in europe, people know real cases and however hard the propaganda, they can see the reality


----------



## qldfrog (18 November 2020)

greggles said:


> One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



No vaccine is required nce spread is wide enough, it will self combust
With vaccine by the time it becomes available: a few billions $ cost, without: same results, free..as long that there are no stupid irrational lockdowns..but that would be putting politics out of the debate


----------



## over9k (19 November 2020)

greggles said:


> One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Alright greggles, you weren't wrong here. Check it out, two headlines in one:




Nursing homes are now getting ravaged, and new york has just busted the 3% positive rate that triggers the lockdowns again:




But it's actually worse than that as hospitality etc is getting shut as well:




And just to sink the boot in, thanksgiving & christmas are both coming and are both the mother of all superspreader events:





So what do we all think happened with the markets today?

Well almost everything was deep into the red, exactly like I've been saying was coming. Even the R2000 was smashed, having its first "worst of the indexes" day in weeks, though not by much:




But, note how the nasdaq was the best of a bad bunch. Well, on virus & lockdown announcements, we know that tech & work/stay at home stocks run, so how'd they do?

Well the fangs (which are the ones driving almost all of the tech sector gains) ended well into the green:




And zoom took off exactly like I've been saying was due, running about 6% in an hour:




As an aside, you can see how quickly the market responds to lockdown news now. It's pretty bloody obvious when the new york lockdown was announced isn't it? And, the volume remained high for the rest of the day as all the cheeky day traders took their profits and stopped zoom heading truly stratospheric. I think there's a LOT more in this yet, so I've held.


----------



## over9k (19 November 2020)

Here's some actual pure economic consequences of the pandemic - the "work from home" revolution isn't going to reverse:


----------



## over9k (19 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok so remember this post?
> 
> Well:
> 
> ...




Update #2 to this original post about how retail traders are beating the idiots in the institutions still using modelling, and, well, I just...



Let's play a game. At what point do you go "well golly jeepers, I don't think modelling is the right approach in this environment"? 

20% loss? 40%? 60%? 

Oh no. Not even close. 



































You'd like to think that some authority would pull this guy's (and everyone else like him) licence or whatever, but I doubt it.


----------



## over9k (20 November 2020)

Alright so it was a pretty quiet day aside from more vaccine numbers (which is becoming monotonous at this point). 




Microcaps & megacaps/tech were once again the best place(s) to be. Semiconductors, after their one red day in ages (along with the one red day for microcaps) yesterday, flew again.

After close tomorrow I'm going to compare this week to last week to see if the responses to each vaccine (which were both conveniently announced before market open monday) matched one another. If so, that'll give us a good idea on how to play the next vaccine announcement: change nothing. 

I expect it's going to follow a similiar pattern, but be far more subdued/with far less volatility. Correlation of 0.5, something like that.

Unless the next vaccine is a different one that can be administered through a nasal spray, stored at room temperature, and produced/delivered by the tanker load in just a few days or something, I expect the market will just shrug at it.


----------



## over9k (20 November 2020)

Even normies are starting to figure things out now:


----------



## qldfrog (20 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Even normies are starting to figure things out now:
> 
> View attachment 114971



putting this within the light of the Reset favored by the swamp, sorry world economic forum:
if you take a step back, the target is a soviet-ization on a global world wide scale, an intelligentsia ruling, fake elections, equality of outcome, removal of individuals/individual freedom, state and party uberall;
Once this is agreed, what was the economic model of the soviet time?
a top down economy, destruction of SME replaced by state companies;
this translates in nowadays world in :
anti competitive rulings, triumph of the FANGS who will become tools of state and omnipresent, and a few state favored giants: a few oilers, pharmas, wind/solar energy, a tesla of some sort, a couple of mega agrobusiness, defence stocks; and the rest doomed for coming decades of taxation/rulings;
It would be a good bet to buy google or FB at the next fall for a long term bet, both very willing to please the masters
Not so sure about amazon but they have the dollars to pay their way in so could survive maybe after a split or name change


----------



## over9k (20 November 2020)

I mentioned how cold effects lethality as well as spread, and the U.S hospital system is already buckling under the strain even with military field hospitals etc set up:




And headlines like this are being posted every few hours, there's just a new record being hit constantly now: 




We also spoke about oil before, and the storage is nearly full again:




I've been mulling a bet against energy for a while. Didn't want to do it knowing vaccines could be announced any day and that's over now unless we count this oxford one that's due soon. There's inverse etf's to do it with. Hmm. 

Problem is that energy is already loooooooow as it is. It bounced on the vaccine news obviously, but there's really not a great deal less to drop compared to a year ago. 

I'm still mulling it over - would love to hear anyone else's input.


----------



## over9k (21 November 2020)

Dow Jones Lower as Disney Mulls Skipping Theaters, Microsoft Makes Teams Video Calls Free for Now
					

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) was struggling on Friday as cases of COVID-19 continued to surge across the United States, and as various Federal Reserve lending programs were terminated effective Dec. 31. Johns Hopkins University reported nearly 190,000 new CO




					www.nasdaq.com
				




Disney mulls skipping theaters entirely.

Theaters: Another business in structural decline that has been KO'd by coronavirus & is already a dead business/will not return. Why go out when you can just stream it into your loungeroom through the movie studio's own streaming service? It's a win for the consumer as much as it is a win for the studios, who no longer have the cinemas taking a cut out of the ticket cost.


----------



## over9k (21 November 2020)

Tech & microcaps still the places to be. Megatech was down slightly. Zoom flew 6%. I should hope the reason why would be obvious. The weekend's going to be ugly, and it's not going to get better. 

The only position I've changed is to make a small bet against energy with ERY.


----------



## barney (21 November 2020)

Quick shout out to you @over9k  ...... Whether people agree/disagree/don't care etc, you have put a lot of time/effort into presenting lots of information on this thread ..... 

I'm only just catching up on the last few days, but well done!


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Disney mulls skipping theaters entirely.
> 
> Theaters:



Rationally I agree but cinemas have been remarkably resilient thus far.

TV was going to wipe them out in the 1950's then when that didn't happen VCR's were sure to kill them off in the early 1980's. Then it was going to be large flat screen TV's and surround sound.

That past resilience makes me very cautious in proclaiming any death of cinemas. They've been killed off a few times already but always bounced back.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Problem is that energy is already loooooooow as it is. It bounced on the vaccine news obviously, but there's really not a great deal less to drop compared to a year ago.
> 
> I'm still mulling it over - would love to hear anyone else's input.




Something to consider is that if we go back a very long way then the present oil price is on the high side of normal.

Prior to 1973 when OPEC flexed its muscle, anything much over $25 in inflation adjusted 2020 $ (USD) would have been seen as high and today's $40 would be borderline crisis territory. Crisis as in too high not too low.

From the 1986 price crash when OPEC lost control amidst rising production from the North Sea and elsewhere combined with aggressive measures to curb consumption (eg the French nuclear plants were mostly built for that reason) through to 2003 we saw prices generally in the $20 to $50 range in 2020 $ inflation adjusted.

Prices sustained above $50 (inflation adjusted) have not been normal throughout most of the history of oil going back to the beginning of the modern oil industry, that is drilling as distinct from collecting oil from natural seeps, in 1859.

On the other hand, supporting prices is the reality that the cheaply extractable oil is no longer available in sufficient quantity to meet demand. That's no conspiracy, it's just business - the most easily extracted sources were tapped first and in that context things like Canadian tar sands, US shale or drilling in ultradeep water are most certainly not "easy" or "cheap" when compared to an onshore well drilled cheaply and easily back in 1950 which flowed under its own pressure. As the best is used up, the marginal cost to produce goes up.

On the flip side technology and radical finance pushes in the other direction. To the extent geologists and others worried about future supplies decades ago made a blunder, it's that they assumed nobody would ever lend money at anywhere near today's low interest rates. That cheap money makes a lot of otherwise unviable oil fields profitable and pushes down the cost of production.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Rationally I agree but cinemas have been remarkably resilient thus far.
> 
> TV was going to wipe them out in the 1950's then when that didn't happen VCR's were sure to kill them off in the early 1980's. Then it was going to be large flat screen TV's and surround sound.
> 
> That past resilience makes me very cautious in proclaiming any death of cinemas. They've been killed off a few times already but always bounced back.



I never bought the plasma TV for $5k in the early days, when 'home entertainment' was all the  rage. Rather, the trip to movies a couple of times a week was experience enough, and then by the time flat screens were $500, I'd reckon I was well ahead, and had a better time along the way.

Now of course, the gaming industry is HUGE. Depends on what source, but gaming eclipses movies and other entertainment


> The video *game industry* raked in a whopping 43.4 billion dollars in *revenue*. This is about four times the money that was made by the top one hundred *movies* of 2018....



or


> According to the latest _figures_, the video _game business_ is now larger than both the _movie_ and music industries combined, making it a major _industry_ in entertainment. This year, the global _games_ market is estimated to generate US$152.1 billion from 2.5 billion _gamers_ around the world...


----------



## over9k (21 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Rationally I agree but cinemas have been remarkably resilient thus far.
> 
> TV was going to wipe them out in the 1950's then when that didn't happen VCR's were sure to kill them off in the early 1980's. Then it was going to be large flat screen TV's and surround sound.
> 
> That past resilience makes me very cautious in proclaiming any death of cinemas. They've been killed off a few times already but always bounced back.




VHS etc had the time element though - no release on video and so forth until they'd milked us all in the cinemas first. VHS, DVD etc releases weren't done at the same time as the cinema release. You don't reckon the ability to *immediately* stream changes things this time?

When "The Irishman" was on netflix very shortly after the cinema release all the cinemas were absolutely _seething. _I would have thought that a good (or bad, depending on your perspective) sign?



Smurf1976 said:


> Something to consider is that if we go back a very long way then the present oil price is on the high side of normal.
> 
> Prior to 1973 when OPEC flexed its muscle, anything much over $25 in inflation adjusted 2020 $ (USD) would have been seen as high and today's $40 would be borderline crisis territory. Crisis as in too high not too low.
> 
> ...




True. The major curveball now though is shale oil and consumption being waaay low.

I'm basically wondering how many more companies are going to the financial wall as all the low hanging fruit has already been picked and with a vaccine actually coming, a ton of capital has been raised by all those still standing, which obviously allows them to weather the storm a lot better.

With that being said, there's a hell of a storm coming. I've taken out a tiny position in ERY - if it goes to its march peak, it'll be a 6 bagger, so even if we get halfway to where march was, that's still a nice triple.

I'll keep everyone updated.


----------



## over9k (21 November 2020)

barney said:


> Quick shout out to you @over9k  ...... Whether people agree/disagree/don't care etc, you have put a lot of time/effort into presenting lots of information on this thread .....
> 
> I'm only just catching up on the last few days, but well done!




If you like what you see, subscribe to my onlyfans at...



I kid, I kid. This is no problem at all. I'm a long time lurker but only started posting this year as I quit my normie job & business (actually just before coronavirus his) and am now trading full time whilst I complete a fin planning qualification so I can actually set up my own show. I already manage a bit of capital for a few mates of mine, hoping to actually turn this garage setup I currently have into a proper gig.


----------



## cutz (21 November 2020)

over9k said:


> If you like what you see, subscribe to my onlyfans at...
> 
> 
> 
> I kid, I kid. This is no problem at all. I'm a long time lurker but only started posting this year as I quit my normie job & business (actually just before coronavirus his) and am now trading full time whilst I complete a fin planning qualification so I can actually set up my own show. I already manage a bit of capital for a few mates of mine, hoping to actually turn this garage setup I currently have into a proper gig.




Good on you mate, all the best for your gig, keep up the good work..


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 November 2020)

over9k said:


> You don't reckon the ability to *immediately* stream changes things this time?



I'm unconvinced either way but I'm seeing cinemas as plausibly somewhat like restaurants, cafes or pubs. 

From a strictly rational perspective, eating at a restaurant is a ludicrous idea. You're paying a huge price for the food and the whole experience takes considerable time. As a means of putting kilojoules into your body it's expensive in every way. Even worse for those restaurants which serve up portions barely large enough to feed a mouse.

Likewise alcohol is far cheaper bought from a bottle shop than a pub and there's nothing sold at a cafe that can't be bought far more cheaply somewhere else.

Those things all still exist though, indeed there's a lot more cafes especially around now than there were not too long ago, and the whole thing is embedded in society in a way that's mostly not about simply feeding yourself.

I'm seeing cinemas as somewhat similar to that. A significant number of people may still go even if the movie is available online a month earlier at a fraction of the price. The whole "going to the cinema" thing is cultural and not just about watching the actual movie despite that being the point of it.

I'm thus unconvinced on that one. Streaming is a thing certainly but I'm not convinced that cinemas are about to be rendered obsolete. Time will tell.


----------



## qldfrog (22 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Rationally I agree but cinemas have been remarkably resilient thus far.
> 
> TV was going to wipe them out in the 1950's then when that didn't happen VCR's were sure to kill them off in the early 1980's. Then it was going to be large flat screen TV's and surround sound.
> 
> That past resilience makes me very cautious in proclaiming any death of cinemas. They've been killed off a few times already but always bounced back.



They could fight technology advance but will not fight regulations
Cinemas are places where people can share feelings and in a way express feelings by laughter booing etc or even attendance numbers
A way for individuals to realise their opinions which may not be allowed to be expressed may be shared:
 in a word movie theaters can be subversive and potentially thought making.
As such, they have to go as do plays, libraries and bookshops.
Once fully digital, content can be changed, access removed or made difficult, step by step we are moving into a dictatorship and economically,you can find the winners and loosers.
May seen paranoiac?
But a few posts back:


Garpal Gumnut said:


> We need to harden up as a nation. Accept orders



Maybe right for Ebola, not for that flu.


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

Quick breakdown of the year so far:










You can see how value shot up on the vaccine announcement at the end there before almost immediately going NOPE and reversing - not so for r2000 and emerging markets.

IWM is the r2000 etf and IEM is the emerging markets one. TNA to triple lever into the r2000, EDC to triple lever into emerging markets. Yes I hold.


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

Sweden used "No response, the virus is nothing to worry about and people will do the right thing":




It's not very effective!


Jokes aside, the weekend was pretty quiet. A whole ton of "gee, you think?" analysis & news:








There's a whole bunch of announcements of or just calls for more stimulus for europe as more & more & more headlines talking about "might have to extend lockdowns" or "travel bubble will need to be postponed" or other similiar stuff is posted every other minute, but all that is is confirming this segment from a couple of weeks ago:




over9k said:


> View attachment 114244
> 
> 
> Translation: Europe is boned and markets will be totally reliant on stimulus.




Like I said, europe's boned and totally reliant on stimulus, just like the U.S, though the yanks have already passed a massive package earlier in the year and that's not actually depleted yet, which is in stark contrast to europe's that is _still _being thrashed out whilst the current package remains veto'd by poland & hungary.

For those who don't know how the EU works - with the big stuff, any (every) member nation has veto power, so big stuff can only get done with unanimous support, making necessary action incredibly difficult. It had the same problem in the GFC.


Asia has similiar stuff going on with things like travel bubbles being "delayed":




And then shelved entirely:




But as I said before, literally none of this was unexpected, and it's going to get a lot worse yet. Position yourselves accordingly.


You know, NOT like this height of stupidity:





But for the aforementioned reasons and the following:




I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about my bet against energy, and futures are looking good for the barbell spread still:




I'll obviously update with any more relevant info for tonight/today if I see any. So far, everything's just exactly what you would have expected.


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

Endless headlines like this now, even the talking heads have finally figured things out:




On account of, you know, this kind of data:







Consequence? Everyone are bricking it:




And you know the markets are especially worried when gold's trajectory changes:




Chinese bond yields next:




See how they took off when the vaccine was announced on the 6th as everyone went risk-on and debtors had to cough up more to get a loan and then reversed trajectory a few days ago when everyone realised that winter is absolutely coming and thus we're still all f***ed?



Finally, for all the newbies, econ 101 kids just starting out etc, we have a great little thought exercise on what data you SHOULDN'T pay attention to/shouldn't care about. 

At this particular moment, why shouldn't you pay attention to data (and sensationalist headlines) like this? 




Answer: Because interest rates are so low. Remember, ignoring economic cost, risk, and expectations of future earnings growth, if you can borrow money at 0% interest then you only need a dividend yield of 0.1% (or a P/E of 1000) to be able to make literal free money. If the interest rate is 1%, you'd need to yield 1.1%, so on and so forth. 

Hence why if you dump the interest rate down to nothing, stocks will be bid up to somewhere near where their dividend yield matches whatever the interest rate is (again, without factoring in economic cost, risk, expectations for the future etc), and so that's exactly what's happened virtually everywhere in the world as virtually everyone _have _dumped their interest rates. 

And remember, the inverse is true too, so even ignoring risk of getting a dividend lower than expected, currency risk, economic cost of alternatives etc etc, if you were going to borrow cash to pump it into a dividend stock, you'd want to be very sure your lending (interest) rate isn't going to increase or the stock will be sold off until it matches a yield of whatever your new interest rate is, most likely wiping your gains out.

In case anyone's wondering why you often see stocks which are trading at huuuuge price/earnings ratios (so with tiny yields) and yet still growing, this occurs when the market is pricing in (that's the literal term for it, pricing in) expectations of the earnings being higher in the future than they are now. So you might take a 0.9% yield this year in the expectation that you get 1.2% next year, putting you at 2.1% total, which is higher than the combined 2% you'd be paying in interest over that period. Make sense?

And again, the inverse is true too - markets will want a pretty serious dividend now if they're doubtful they're going to get it next year and the year after and so forth as the money received now needs to make up for the lack of money received later. You can take a look at GEO's huge dividend yield at the moment to see what I mean.


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

Astrazeneca data is out. 70% effective. Different dosing regimen was 90% effective but little info on that. Nobody's talking about it so it might be a waaaay higher dose (meaning diminishing "returns per dose" as you up the dose).


The fact that all three vaccine results have been released before open on monday seems like a hell of a coincidence to me. Futures have obviously all gone bonkers, everything's in the green, but this will be another great comparo to make to the previous two releases. The others took just a day to flip trajectory after vaccine reactions, so we'll see how this one does. This was supposed to be the one that was going to be rolled out to the poor countries so now the politics game begins.




They still haven't even approved the pfizer -70 one for emergency use I don't think so let's not go thinking this actually changes anything medium-term.


----------



## qldfrog (23 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 115118
> View attachment 115119
> 
> 
> ...



actually I think it does, no one really care about vaccine working or not, all what is important is that the powers  have decided
 we have vaccine announcements so we have a de facto political decision to restart the economy in 3 to 6 months: the time to release this so called vaccine and start plunging needles
France is back in lockdown, infection rate was falling before the lockdown..who cares..lockdown anyway:
the more data, the more it is a conspiracy and under that light, it has been decided to restart in 3 to 6 month..not before, we need to show more deaths this winter, there is no autocracy without fear;
So make sure you get ready for this slow confirmation of economic restart under new rules once we have had a last lockdown..probably US
so nyse down then restart after xmas/february


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

Yeah I'll be nuking a few positions just before xmas frog


----------



## over9k (23 November 2020)

So you've all heard about the zombie companies that are hanging by a thread, so here's some data on them:







$1.4 trillion in junk debt being burned through that could go bust before the recovery. It's going to be a hell of a firesale when some of them inevitably don't make it.

Here are the futures 2hrs before open on a vaccine-day:




As we can see, the r2k looks to be the overwhelming beneficiary yet again. Today's kind of a write off (anomaly) on account of the vaccine, it's the other four days of the week that are going to be telling. The past two weeks the r2k has been the best place to be on the other days as well, so I'll be holding again.


----------



## over9k (24 November 2020)

Here we go:




I have no idea why a 1+0.5 dose would be better than a 1+1, but I'm not an immunologist. Astrazeneca's stock price is actually down for some reason. This was co-developed with oxford, so I suspect it's not one they're able to make bank from, unlike the others which were privately developed. It's also the one that the poor countries want and will be paid by the first world so I suspect the negotiations have all been for at-cost purchases. 

MRNA is up 6% premarket, AZN is down 2%.


----------



## qldfrog (24 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Here we go:
> 
> View attachment 115130
> 
> ...



Difference between 2 doses and 1+0.5..?
The amount of BS is unprecedented..it means 2 injections.
Funny how similar to just getting exposed..
70% success rate too
But this has been decided, billions more to prepare the greatest show on earth the marshall plan of sgiipping refrigerated containers everywhere etc  i already imagine the tv news
During that time, in the real world,while old people and sick people are still dying..damned virus., we have added debt and real economic impact:








						Desperate Eastern Cape residents are resorting to eating grass to survive | You
					

Homelessness, poverty, starvation: that’s the grim fallout of lockdown in the Eastern Cape where desperate residents are resorting to eating grass and tortoises to survive.




					www.news24.com
				



And https://www.ucanews.com/news/hunger-rife-among-thai-poor-as-covid-19-batters-economy/89639

All relative isn't it.
and zoom is not saving them


----------



## over9k (24 November 2020)

Alright gang I've gotta clock off early today so I'll update everyone with a big post this afternoon, but for now, here's how things went:




As you can see, it's just the last two mondays all over again. Same goes with everything else - airlines up, energy up, tech massacred etc etc. If things follow the same pattern as the last two weeks, this is all going to all but reverse itself within a few days. I haven't even sold my small bet against energy despite it being slaughtered today.


----------



## over9k (24 November 2020)

Airline news & data:

So we've all heard about how qantas is going to require a vaccination before it lets you fly on its jets. Not surprising in the slightest:









						Qantas will ban travellers who don't have the COVID vaccine — can other businesses follow suit?
					

Luggage, plane tickets …  vaccine passport. Travellers may soon have to carry around proof they've been vaccinated against COVID-19, but could that rule be extended to other sectors as well?




					www.abc.net.au
				





The question is of course how they're going to actually implement such a policy. Well, wouldn't you know it, qantas isn't the only company thinking this way. In fact, the entire industry is working on this problem. The global airline lobby, the International Airline Travel Association (IATA) is working on an app type system:





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




But the unfortunate reality is that this simply isn't going to be enough for a lot of airlines. Airlines are the absolute definition of the "zombie companies" we keep hearing about (not alive, but not dead either) as they're not operational but are making payroll, rent etc with stimulus packages (or debt raising) and the like.

I posted this image before with the opinion that this rally was way, way, way too premature/optimistic:




And here's why: 




In short, plenty more are forecast to go because they now have seasonality on both travel and the virus (meaning more lockdowns) to contend with.





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




"_While a late-summer rebound in flights has limited airline failures in the past few months, a new wave of Covid-19 lockdowns combined with the usual winter slump in traffic will push more toward the brink", Hatcher said. _

Fact is that many more just aren't going to make it.


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## over9k (24 November 2020)

Movie theaters are also another zombie business that is boned for the foreseeable future. They literally require crowds to operate, so are always first on the restriction/lockdown chopping block whenever new lockdowns are announced. 

ROKU is surging as a result.


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## over9k (24 November 2020)

Alright so your workplace might have casual fridays, well, this market has vaccine announcement mondays!

Jokes aside, astrazeneca announced a successful vaccine that can be stored at normal fridge temperature and is 70% effective. Here's how the three successful vaccines compare now:





It's better in that it's easier to store/transport, but it's worse in that it's not as effective as the alternatives. In other words, if you can get/use the moderna vaccine, you will choose it over the astrazeneca one.

Now, the market reaction? Well it was almost identical to the previous two mondays, with the r2k being the overwhelmingly best place to be:




Energy going bonkers but tech getting smashed:




And all the reopening dependent stocks like cinemas, airlines, shopping centres etc etc all quite predictably also went mad, just like on the previous announcements:




All of which is pretty predictable/exactly what you'd expect.

Semiconductors were also a great place to be yet again, showing they run on both vaccine and non-vaccine days alike:




What wasn't as you'd expect, however, was the actual vaccine stock price changes. Whilst the market overall was (today at least) very happy with this announcement, vaccine/medicinal stock traders were NOT.

Check this out, astrazeneca actually DROPPED (along with pfizer) whilst moderna GAINED:




And, moderna has absolutely been the pick of the vaccine stocks:




Which tells us that the people who are in the know with this stuff are NOT impressed with the astrazeneca vaccine (or the pfizer one) and absolutely consider the moderna one to be the best of the bunch. In fact, even though it's a much easier to store & transport vaccine, I suspect that a 70% success rate simply *isn't* good enough.

This tells us we're all most likely to get the moderna one here in the first world/that it's the best product to date. This confirmed my gut instinct when I bought some moderna so my wallet is very happy with this.

But the fact is that not even the original pfizer one has actually even received emergency approval for rollout yet, and so despite all the exuberance of today (and last monday, and the one before that), virus numbers continue to skyrocket with modelling predicting another 30,000 people to go just before christmas, let alone after:




And I actually think it's going to be worse than that as we have thanksgiving, which along with christmas is the mother of all spreader events, just a couple of days away.

But despite all of this, the americans just don't seem to care. Authorities are advising people to skip thanksgiving:




And the american public simply couldn't care less:




Everything I've seen shows a roughly two week lead time between infection and positive test result, so if that's correct, we can expect a pretty serious spike in cases mid december and with the reality that there is no way they're going to cancel christmas, the same thing occurring in mid january as well.

For these reasons, I have held my bet against energy despite it getting massacred today.


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## over9k (24 November 2020)

USA vs Europe:


The consensus among the talking heads is that the U.S is about two-ish weeks behind europe at the moment, so let's take a look at where europe is now and see if we can extrapolate that to the U.S a couple of weeks from now.


In short, the lockdowns are having the exact effect you'd expect. Virus numbers have subsided/turned the corner:




But economically speaking, it's a bloodbath, shown by new PMI data out today:




Result? Even the talking heads can see that europe's heading for another slump:







The one major difference is that the yanks do thanksgiving whereas europe does not. Thanksgiving will be the mother of all superspreader events, so whilst we might have numbers in the U.S subside slightly, we can expect a huge bounce after thanksgiving/just before christmas.

The U.S and Europe obviously both do christmas though, and so both are going to see major spikes after that. The difference is that the yanks are likely to be starting from a much higher level on account of thanksgiving and so will have much worse post-christmas numbers.


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## over9k (24 November 2020)

The futures for all the indices are in the green at the moment, but we all saw what happened the other two weeks until another vaccine was then announced. 


More updates later.


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## over9k (24 November 2020)

Biden's been allowed "transition access" or words to that effect. A tacit admission by trump that he's lost. 





Big curveball, but a good one. Markets are loving it. But it does mean that today isn't comparable to the last two tuesdays.


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## over9k (25 November 2020)

I mentioned in a previous post about how quickly markets are reacting to shutdown & virus news now, and I've noted through this afternoon that futures, after going nuts in response to trump allowing biden to begin the process (so a tacit concession of losing) and check out this comparo to the futures in the previous post above:




All the premarket has been nothing but virus news:









And we're already seeing a solid move in the nasdaq and a drop in the other indices (though with the r2k still on top). It'll be interesting to see if this trend continues throughout the session and I'll obviously post the close numbers once it's over.


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## qldfrog (25 November 2020)

I would be interested to know more about the reaction to the virus outside the great reset target countries: aka western and se asia
Eastern block?, africa, latin america/india..kind of ,and China..well the later fuel the movement but as far as i can see except a few shows for the west, china is back 100pc


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## qldfrog (25 November 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I would be interested to know more about the reaction to the virus outside the great reset target countries: aka western and se asia
> Eastern block?, africa, latin america/india..kind of ,and China..well the later fuel the movement but as far as i can see except a few shows for the west, china is back 100pc



Interesting economic figures ahead.


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## over9k (25 November 2020)

Alright so it was an interesting day. Here are the close numbers:




Three things to note: First, the r2k was yet again the play of the day like it has been every day since the vaccine announcement bar one. It's on track to crack a 20% run by the end of the month.

Secondly, I noted in the previous post how after the biden transition announcement madness, futures had trended towards tech once again, and just take a look at the nasdaq numbers compared to the transition announcement period - 0.3% vs 1.3, or over 4x what they were at that time.

Finally, it was also the first day in quite some time that the S&P actually beat the dow, meaning that industrials AND tech were (relatively) worse off and other sectors (like energy and the banks) screamed. Banks are _particularly _sensitive to uncertainty for what I would hope are obvious reasons and so that makes sense when markets get some in the form of biden beginning the transition.

But after all this madness, well, we saw a pretty serious move into big tech. After being negative, the fangs trended up ever since the biden announcement madness had subsided and ended deep into the green, beating even the r2k:




The only area that didn't see some love was stay/work from home like zoom, but that went green in aftermarket trading and I've held onto that on account of their earnings being released in a few days.

As of 4hrs after market close, all the futures are in the green with the nasdaq being the highest - so we're seeing yet another repeat of the week of monday the 9th: Madness on monday, then back on trend.

Microcaps are still the overwhelmingly best place to be. I wonder if we'll get a 4th vaccine next monday to blow half my position(s) out yet _again. _


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## over9k (25 November 2020)

More airlines news:




And the data behind the headline:


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## over9k (25 November 2020)

Alright meaty post coming up:

The headache we've had is that we've had three vaccine announcements _in a row, _which has obviously thrown three huge spanners in the works one after another after another and the U.S election just a few days before they started as well just to really rub the salt in. Markets were (and have kept doing so on days other than monday) positioning for a pretty bleak winter period and if we take a look at the fangs, that hasn't actually changed:




As you can see, the megatech has been on a solid uptrend ever since its bottom-out after the first vaccine was announced. Sure it dropped a bit here & there after the other two vaccines but it's not like it's kept dropping (or just flatlined) at at time when the whole rest of the market has been going bonkers.

Yes, there have been better places to be on account of the completely unpredictable reality of three vaccines being announced in a row (and hey, if you bought after the first one & then held despite all the virus data, state governors telling you lockdowns are coming etc etc telling you not to then you've been very lucky and good for you) but we can see that the megatech is anything but done for.

Point is, if there was anything that was going to finish big tech off, you'd think that three vaccines _in a row _would do it, but that's not what we find. If we look at things on a slightly longer time frame, after the first vaccine announcement, the second two haven't actually done anything to the trend whatsoever. This is a good sign and is why I have continued to hold my position because even if we get a _fourth _vaccine next monday, megatech's still been a great bet.

I know I keep saying what _should _happen after monday every week and then getting smashed by another vaccine announcement on the weekend, but what I'm pointing out here is that the additional vaccines haven't been bad news for big tech. In fact, they haven't effected it at all - it's kept on both a post-vaccine-bottomout trend _and _longer term (since the march bottom-out) trend the whole time:




Which is in stark contrast to the regular tech index, which after a post-bottomout-rebound, has gone absolutely nowhere:




The regular tech sector looks like it's going to flatline in a market that will have run near 25% for the month, making it an absolutely moronic investment.


The key takeaway here is to remember that tech, and megatech, are _not _the same thing. Remember when I talked about the barbell spread, I was talking about positioning based on company _market cap, _not sector. That seemed like a subtle distinction, but it wasn't.

For a simple example of the reality of how we're now in a winner-take-all type of market _everywhere_, let's take a look at what's changed the most since the first vaccine announcement: Energy.


And here it is:




NRGU is a triple leveraged "big oil" etf and ERX is the triple leveraged energy _sector_ etf. As you can see, big oil has run over _twice_ what the energy sector as a whole has since the vaccine announcement on the weekend after the 6th.

Looking at this data we can see how the barbell spread applies to industries other than tech on account of the aforementioned winner-take-all nature of the market we are now in. Remember, the barbell spread is determined by _market cap, _not sector.

To put things another way, what the vaccine news has done is not change what type (by market cap) of companies are getting the spoils, but rather, simply which industries the winners are taking everything in, which is a _very_ different thing.

We will obviously need to keep this in mind when it comes time to reposition for a post-vaccine/post-winter play, which isn't too far off. NRGU's looking very good at this stage


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## over9k (25 November 2020)

I wonder if there's a sweden inverse etf. Hmm.


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## qldfrog (26 November 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 115269
> View attachment 115268
> View attachment 115270
> 
> ...



global punishment  to the kid not playing the game; facts are still bloody good, better being Sweddish than any other European...
figures just figures...not headline, but you are right over9k, headlines are more important to the market: remember: psyche than science or numbers as you know as well after the vaccines news releases, etc so yes probably better to short them and go into a US heading for lockdown, or better the french lockdowned one...


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

qldfrog said:


> global punishment  to the kid not playing the game; facts are still bloody good, better being Sweddish than any other European...
> figures just figures...not headline, but you are right over9k, headlines are more important to the market: remember: psyche than science or numbers as you know as well after the vaccines news releases, etc so yes probably better to short them and go into a US heading for lockdown, or better the french lockdowned one...



Yeah but whatever's in the past is in the past frog - we only need to ask what's going to happen from here on out. The countries that were doing the best might have the most to fall for example.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

Alright I'll start with the day and then get to the data etc to put it all in context.

Here's the day:




Only the nasdaq ended the day in the green with big tech screaming (along with zoom and the other stay-at-home plays). The r2k plummeted on open and then spent the whole day recovering and ended above the dow.

But the day was basically completely defensive. Almost everything was massacred just like on all the other defensive days we've had until yet another vaccine gets announced and the whole thing goes bonkers again (or trump finally admits he's lost).

But there were a few notable exceptions and those exceptions are the telling ones.

First, megatech pulled and pulled hard, making the nasdaq the only major index in the green:




Zoom, docusign etc flew:




And the market seems to have more than made its mind up that it will be the moderna vaccine that gets rolled out and so that's more than off to the races, well over 10% above its post-announcement peak:



And astrazeneca thus dropping:




Pfizer also dropped but I think we all knew that was never going to get rolled out unless we had no other choice. 


But of course, one day does not a trend make. Here's the megatech and zoom post-vaccine-bottomout:





Steady hands have been rewarded here and futures suggest they are going to continue to be with the trends I identified for the day continuing into the futures numbers 6hrs after market close:




And I'll explain why in the next post.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

Ok so a whole bunch of bad economic and bad virus data was dumped just before open.

The most easily demonstrable one is here:










If you take a look back to my other posts, the world cracked the 50 million mark on the 12th of november. So that's ten million cases in a fortnight.

Result?




U.S hospitalisations were 30% above their previous peaks a week ago (60,000 vs 80,000 and counting). Remember, the virus is ripping through the medical personnel on the front lines of this stuff so we have an increase in virus numbers at the same time as a decrease in medical personnel numbers. I should hope the consequences of which would be obvious.

If the yanks aren't worried, they should be. And the econonomic data dumped shows that they actually are:

The economic data was sobering. Jobless claims have just broken a flattening out and have in fact now changed trajectory:





And consumer confidence is, honestly, exactly where it should be. Even the general public are starting to get worried:




And it's little wonder with 30 states and counting now having cancelled school:




All of which we can expect to see get worse as the virus continues to spread.

I have kept my small bet against energy. I'm actually considering adding to it now that energy is at a little peak after three vaccine announcements on the trot.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

Ok now for semiconductors, because we got some economic data that explains what's going on there.

I've mentioned quite a few times how semiconductors have just pulled and pulled and pulled and pulled through this pandemic, even on vaccine announcements, and I should hope the reason why would be pretty obvious: People stuck at home buying all kinds of electronic goods to keep themselves occupied: TV's, computers, thermomixes, playstations, so on and so forth.

Well we have a bit of data on this now.

For starters, it's one of the few things that the yanks actually import a bit of (pretty much entirely from asia), so the balance of trade has been thrown waaaaay off normal, which is only logical - an increase in demand for something you import:




Gets you a trade deficit in it:




But of course, nobody's actually going out and physically buying, well, _anything _any more are they?

Result:




And, of course, someone has to actually produce (mine) all the stuff that goes into those circuit boards, so metals (copper in particular) are doing very well at three-year highs:







Result of all this?

The U.S west coast, the port/places of entry for microchips/tech/gadgets for most of the rest of the country (on account of asia being, you know, across the pacific, not the atlantic) cannot unload the ships fast enough:









						Boatloads of cargo are waiting in the waters off Los Angeles
					

A flotilla of almost a dozen cargo vessels sits anchored just south of Los Angeles this weekend, waiting for berth space.




					www.latimes.com
				








And so we're now seeing flotillas of container ships now joining the oil tanker flotillas which have been backed up for weeks with nowhere to actually put their oil on account of the storage tanks etc we spoke about earlier all being full. A flotilla of almost a dozen cargo vessels sits anchored just south of Los Angeles this weekend, waiting for berth space. Around the twin ports of L.A. and Long Beach, shipping containers are already stacked five and six high -- the maximum the fire department will allow.








Back in april-march-june when the saudi's just bought up/leased every tanker they could find tanker rates cracked $250,000 a _day. _


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

Found the smoking gun for the moderna surge:

https://www.reuters.com/article/hea...ses-of-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN2841GE

EU's ordered 160 million doses. Undoubtedly more will follow around the world. I hold, won't be selling.

I don't know how I missed this. I want to say I was too engrossed in all the economic data that was dumped just beforehand. Sorry everyone.



Also, just checked the jobless claim data, it's the worst in 5 weeks. They've well & truly turned the corner.









						Breaking International News & Views
					






					uk.reuters.com
				




Hospitalisations are now at 89,000, 1.5x their previous peak of 60,000. Deaths now at record highs at nearly 2,200 a day.


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## greggles (26 November 2020)

I have to say, we are living in probably the most fascinating economic time of my entire life.

There is a pandemic raging across the USA (and the world), infecting tens of thousands of people every day, with around 270,000 dead in the USA as a result (1.4 million globally), a plethora of critical industries and sectors have been decimated, the US unemployment rate is up from 3.5% in January to 6.9% last month (after hitting 14.7% in April).... and the DJIA is currently at all time highs. 

It just doesn't add up. I understand that people are betting on a vaccine and better economic times to come, but it just seems to me that caution has been thrown to the wind.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

greggles said:


> I have to say, we are living in probably the most fascinating economic time of my entire life.
> 
> There is a pandemic raging across the USA (and the world), infecting tens of thousands of people every day, with around 270,000 dead in the USA as a result (1.4 million globally), a plethora of critical industries and sectors have been decimated, the US unemployment rate is up from 3.5% in January to 6.9% last month (after hitting 14.7% in April).... and the DJIA is currently at all time highs.
> 
> It just doesn't add up. I understand that people are betting on a vaccine and better economic times to come, but it just seems to me that caution has been thrown to the wind.



Ok greggles I can actually answer that one for you pretty quickly: 

Markets had a big selloff before the election on the 3rd as we all know what happened last time and nobody wanted to take the risk. So markets went into the start of november loooooow. 

Then the election on the 3rd. Markets took off like a gunshot. Then a vaccine on the 9th sent them soaring further. Then another one a week later. Then _another _one a week after that. All four events took a market that had sold off in late october and sent it absolutely stratospheric. 

If not for the election, it wouldn't have looked nearly as impressive. Remember, the pre-election selloff gave the market a very low base to take off from. 


Longer term, remember that main street has been slaughtered whilst wall street has survived and taken the spoils. In other words, there has been a marketshare/wealth _transfer _from main street (which obviously has nothing to do with the stock market) to wall street, so the stock market soars whilst mum & dad businesses etc get massacred. 

I have no doubt that the net effect is probably negative or zero-sum at best, but because a lot of the wealth lost by main street has been collected by wall street, the stock market soars. 


There's also the fact that interest rates are so low with no sign of changing, allowing (enabling... _requiring_) stocks to be bid up to ridiculous p/e levels on account of the fact that returns only need to be tiny in order to service debt now. 


I hope all of this makes sense? Let me know if there's anything you need clarifying, I'm more than happy to help


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## greggles (26 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok greggles I can actually answer that one for you pretty quickly:
> 
> Markets had a big selloff before the election on the 3rd as we all know what happened last time and nobody wanted to take the risk. So markets went into the start of november loooooow.
> 
> ...




I understand what you are saying, and I appreciate that wealth has just been transferred from one group of people to another, but it seems to me that there are other factors at play.

Those Wall Street people had jobs before and they have jobs now. Those Mums and Dads who owned businesses had jobs before and don't now. They're probably on unemployment benefits with a mortgage they can no longer pay. This must be happening all across the country en masse and eventually the chickens will come home to roost.

I just don't feel that this is a time for celebration and running up the stock market. The true economic effects of this pandemic are yet to be fully felt in my view.

There is a real economic cost to be paid for all these destroyed industries and small businesses and I think that the market is not currently figuring that into the equation. It seems to me to be irrational exuberance. We are not out of the woods yet, far from it.

This V-shaped recovery seems to be out of step with reality and I think the market has overshot the mark by a significant margin.

Time will tell of course, but I remain pessimistic.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

Here's some data for the P/E ratio's by the way 





Also, lol, I knew I forgot something before greggles:

_Stimulus. _

Markets have been overwhelmingly reliant on stimulus and boy has there been a lot of it. Without more money, the government shuts down on the 11th of december and the stimulus program ends on the 31st just for everyone's information:









						14 million workers face losing unemployment benefits at the end of December
					

Millions of workers will lose their unemployment benefits at the end of December unless Congress passes legislation.




					www.cnbc.com
				




I'd like to think that a new package will finally get agreed on before then, but hey, we all know politicians.


If the yanks have the winter virus wave we all know they're going to and combine that with no stimulus package, dear god...


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## qldfrog (26 November 2020)

greggles said:


> I understand what you are saying, and I appreciate that wealth has just been transferred from one group of people to another, but it seems to me that there are other factors at play.
> 
> Those Wall Street people had jobs before and they have jobs now. Those Mums and Dads who owned businesses had jobs before and don't now. They're probably on unemployment benefits with a mortgage they can no longer pay. This must be happening all across the country en masse and eventually the chickens will come home to roost.
> 
> ...



you would be right if "rules" of economics were to apply, but they do not; there is a massive voluntary transfer of wealth toward the .01%
stimulus and stimulus, not so much for the corner stores or sacked workers  doing it hard but for the master of the universes, paid by debt to be repaid by the losers: you know the 99.9 we all belong;
Under the guise of helping the street and protecting the 80+olds from ever dying, the biggest wealth transfer we have even seen and i would bet it will not end nicely, not by basic economics..like $ value collapse etc, all that would only work in a free market, which we are not.

SO whether you like it or not, your best bet is to join the robbers, knowing very well that your chances are small to win when the masters will decide to stop the market, release or stop a pandemic or seize assets with a long list of good reasons and a pretext of robbing the richs to distribute to the poor.
reduce your liabilities: fixed assets, individual bank accounts move to crypto and gold, and play the game following Mr Ducati or Mr Over9k
probably no radical drama to expect until next year..July August when holidays are priorities in the Northern hemisphere and legislative framework will be in place.
I expect this to be true in both Europe and US and so for the rest of us : July 2021 deadline..let's see


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## qldfrog (26 November 2020)

in the meantime, on the Aussie front, while everyone is oblivious and cashing JobKeeper to get the latest XBOX:








						China says coal imports failed environment standards amid stalled Australian shipments
					

When asked about Australian coal stalled at Chinese ports, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said "we found that many coal imports have failed to meet environmental standards".




					www.brisbanetimes.com.au


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

How about retail? We're heading into thanksgiving/black friday/cyber monday, so let's take a look.


Adobe analytics are unsurprisingly forecasting a massive increase in online sales, way above trend this year, of a 33% increase year-on-year vs the 15%-ish it had been trending at:




Which is obviously pretty unsurprising. What will be interesting will be to see if the spoils of e-tail all go to the winner like we've seen in the other markets like the fangs, energy with big oil etc etc. Historically, the little guys actually get a bigger bump over this period than the large players do:





So it'll be interesting to see if that still happens this year on account of the virus/lockdowns/social distancing/everything now being online etc etc curveball.

If anyone wants to read the full report, you can find it here: https://www.adobe.com/content/dam/www/us/en/adi/2020/pdfs/Adobe_Holiday_Forecast_Press.pdf


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## qldfrog (26 November 2020)

over9k said:


> How about retail? We're heading into thanksgiving/black friday/cyber monday, so let's take a look.
> 
> 
> Adobe analytics are unsurprisingly forecasting a massive increase in online sales, way above trend this year, of a 33% increase year-on-year vs the 15%-ish it had been trending at:
> ...



I noted the fact many want to favor smaller retailers, basically avoid Amazon...
So should Amazon be a loser?
NO as they win on all side, their AWS platform and cloud solution  is omnipresent and manages most of the smaller retailers  online sale sites..
amazon... amazing....


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## sptrawler (26 November 2020)

By the way @over9k thanks for all this great info.


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## sptrawler (26 November 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I noted the fact many want to favor smaller retailers, basically avoid Amazon...
> So should Amazon be a loser?
> NO as they win on all side, their AWS platform and cloud solution  is omnipresent and manages most of the smaller retailers  online sale sites..
> amazon... amazing....



Uber eats for shopping, but it seems to be more focused than eBay, by also having the warehouse model incorporated.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

trawler - No problem at all. If there's an oil trader on here I can bounce an idea off of it'd be great if they could sing out - I'm watching a couple of movements in the oil market and if they haven't normalised themselves by next week I'm going to be thoroughly confused/in need of an explanation so I'll post it all here if things don't do what I (had) expected.


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## over9k (26 November 2020)

Just saw some more info on retail - looks like there's been a massive increase in "curbside pickup" (what we might know as click-and-collect) this year and this is what smaller retailers, bricks & mortar guys etc etc are expecting to see on black friday/cyber monday rather than the traditional crowds.

Marks & spencer have just announced that they're not even going to open on boxing day - they'll still have the traditional boxing day sale, but it'll be entirely online and you just buy online and either pick your item(s) up over the coming few days or get them posted to you.

In other words, even the businesses themselves have pretty much given up on traditional bricks & mortar/buy in person retail at this point.


I bought UPS , FEDEX & International paper aaaaages ago in anticipation of nothing getting back to anywhere near normal for way way longer than everyone were expecting (nor ever returning to "normal") and they've been rockstars so far:






I still hold all three, with no plans to sell, and still think all three are a buy even now.


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## over9k (27 November 2020)

More bad news on the jobs/virus front as crowd-dependent businesses have now realised the barrel they are staring down.

With the realisation that winter this year is going to shut the country down in a similiar fashion (probably worse) to how things were back in march, disney has just laid off another 4,000 people. They were planning for 28,000 to go and have revised the number to 32,000:









						Disney increases number of planned layoffs to 32,000 employees
					

Walt Disney Co. is planning to shed 32,000 employees by the end of March — 4,000 more than previously announced — as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hammer its parks and resorts business.




					edition.cnn.com
				




To be fair to the company, this year they've lost $2.8 billion and counting, but with the stimulus payments for unemployment etc running out on the 31st, if the politicians don't get something done within the next four weeks, these people (and many others like them) are absolutely f***ed.

The only ray of hope they seem to have is that this winter looks like it's going to be a relatively mild one:




And so numbers/lockdowns might subside slightly earlier than you might otherwise think. Sadly, there's going to be plenty more news like this in the coming days/weeks.


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## over9k (27 November 2020)

Alright I think I figured my oil problem out.


Remember when I was talking about how all the tankers are just anchored off the coast with nowhere to put their oil as all the storage tanks are full (and have been for months) etc etc?

Well for a brief moment, they weren't:




And boy for the life of me I could not figure out why. I mean ok, we've had the election plus three vaccine announcements in a row and so energy and the oil price itself has been on an absolute tear, spiking on the day, then flatlining (or subsiding slightly) for a few days before just spiking all over again every time a vaccine gets announced, just like much of the rest of the market has.

So oil futures just running and running and running and running (in parallel with much of the rest of the market, especially energy) pricing future expectations in made sense:




But the actual drop of inventories (so the burning of oil itself) has had me completely stumped. I mean, we even had more lockdowns just announced after the virus numbers reached a threshold so wouldn't that mean LESS oil consumption?

I mean, surely the miniscule bounce in air travel for thanksgiving wouldn't be enough to effect crude stockpiles? Or at worst, it would have been offset by the fresh round of lockdowns now in place?

I checked the data & everything. There's been sweet f**k all uptick in travellers really, I mean ok the headline talked about a million or so extra people travelling by air this week but that's actually nothing in context compared to a normal year:




So I mean, what gives?

Well it turns out that the previous post/headline about americans just not giving a f**k and still travelling for thanksgiving was actually correct. The actual number of people travelling for thanksgiving is almost as high as it was last year.

The difference is that whilst people have avoided air travel (because, you know, crowds at airports plus lots of people crammed into a relatively small space in an aeroplane) they've had absolutely no issue with travelling by_ car_ (for what I would think are obvious reasons) and so they've done exactly that with just an estimated 4% reduction compared to last year:

https://newsroom.aaa.com/2020/11/fewer-americans-traveling-this-thanksgiving-amid-pandemic/




And so an awful lot of fuel tanks have been brimmed this week/we've seen a very similiar spike in oil consumption this week as compared to all the other weeks of this time of year. Total number of travellers air & road combined is only down about 10% or so compared to last year, and _that's _where the big increase in oil consumption has come from.

This is actually kind of good as we now know that all those people are going to burn the same amount of fuel driving home again and absent some pretty big lockdown measures like the closure of state borders or something (and as if that's going to happen) we can also expect christmas travel (and therefore oil burning) to be about 90% of it was last year as well.


If I've got this right, with a roughly two week lead time from infection to positive test, we should see a drop in oil about two weeks after thanksgiving as virus numbers spike and trigger more lockdowns and then another bounce shortly after, i.e about a week or so before christmas.

There's also new year's eve a week after that but I suspect NYE's going to be pretty subdued this year (and I don't think a lot of oil gets burned because of NYE anyway).


If this is all correct, the only curveball that remains is what the new year is going to bring. I have to wonder if we're not going to see a pretty serious rally in a kind of pricing in of "we're on the home stretch and freedom is just a few months away" kind of thing combined with the fact that vaccine deployment is scheduled to have well & truly started by then.

So if I've got all that correct, the time to bet _on _oil/the oil companies is in a trough about two-ish weeks from now. And wouldn't you know it, with a spike in oil price and the vaccines all announced, leveraged oil etf's have literally just been put back on the market ready for silly people like me to do silly things with them:





But if there's an oil trader out there that thinks I've completely missed something here then don't hesitate to say so, I absolutely want any/all input I can get.


----------



## over9k (27 November 2020)

*BREAKING: ASTRAZENECA f***ed THEIR VACCINE TRIAL UP *




Remember the post about the people who got 1+1 dose vs 1+0.5 dose? Well the 1+0.5 wasn't supposed to happen. It was a manufacturing error.









						AstraZeneca manufacturing error clouds vaccine study results
					

“You’ve taken two studies for which different doses were used and come up with a composite that doesn’t represent either of the doses," an expert said.




					www.nbcnews.com
				




Not only that, but they then took the 62% effectiveness of the 1+1 dose and averaged it with the 90% of the 1+0.5 to get the 70% effectiveness rate. And, the amount of people (sample size) that received the 1+0.5 method is so low as to be invalid for scientific verification/approval to take to market purposes.

Doubts have quite rightly now been raised about the entire study and the people involved are all being grilled about it right now. In fact, it looks like they're going to have to do another whole study again as only the 62% number is actually scientifically valid:




And this has obviously added god knows how much time to the approval for deployment:




Unbelievable.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 November 2020)

over9k said:


> So I mean, what gives?



There's also the reality that oil wells deplete.

They don't suddenly stop flowing in the way that a light is turned off but they do gradually slow down - much like a torch getting dimmer as the battery runs flat.

With the 2019 level of drilling, production was growing only slightly. That is, most new development was simply offsetting decline in existing fields.

With the collapse in drilling it is thus a fair assumption that the world's oil extraction capacity now lower than it was as of February 2020. At the very least it won't be what it would have been without the pandemic.

I haven't tried to put a precise figure on it but oil extraction capacity is much like fitness. Stop exercising and you don't become unfit overnight but the gradual decline does start pretty much immediately. Same if drilling stops - the existing wells are still losing pressure, they're still losing flow rate or increasing the water cut.


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## qldfrog (27 November 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's also the reality that oil wells deplete.
> 
> They don't suddenly stop flowing in the way that a light is turned off but they do gradually slow down - much like a torch getting dimmer as the battery runs flat.
> 
> ...



Even worse, some wells shut down while not empty yet will never be able to be reopened unless major expense..it is not like a switch on/off.
It would be interesting but probably impossible to get that figure: oil lost yet not consumed by absence of flows, all missed maintenance, aging, volatiles and leaks...would be substantial after nearly a year


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## qldfrog (27 November 2020)

over9k said:


> *BREAKING: ASTRAZENECA f***ed THEIR VACCINE TRIAL UP *
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Very believable
When 70% of people affected by the virus have no noticeable symptoms ( i believe this is agreed on medically), injecting the virus would give you a better result
Some side effects: headache potentially slight fever etc then recovery and immunity, obviously with my vaccine under 1% could die but if i select my test population right, i can get pretty good results: why should i risk frail and sick people in a vaccine test? That would be evil.
If you know anyone with a few billions and a batch of infected blood, i can do my Australian made vaccine and we can share results release date to ensure the extra cash bonus
Would be farcical if not tragic.
One point to take into account in your forecast and analysis is that slowly, the proportion of infected and immunised people in growing.as most people are not sick, many did not get tested yet will not be vector
Figures around 25% seemed to be reached in Europe.
That epidemy has an end date, vaccine or not, except here and in NZ🙁


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## over9k (28 November 2020)

Alright so the big story today is obviously retail and, to be honest, I could have updated it before the session even started:





Black friday would normally see lines around the block before sunrise. Instead, it's a wasteland.

The other thing that's been pointed out is that whilst medium & high end stuff has been ordered literally by the boatload, low end stuff hasn't on account of the fact that it's low income people that have been hit by this pandemic the hardest (you know, people in service jobs and that kind of thing) and so they simply don't have the cash to splash this year.




Copper's still on a tear, because semiconductors (electronic goods) are still on a tear:




Because, well, everyone are still stuck at home on tv, youtube, minecraft, call of duty, playing the xbox, so on and so forth and are going to be for quite some time yet.


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## over9k (28 November 2020)

Other economically sensitive info: Vaccine use authorisation data.









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Announces Advisory Committee Meeting to Discuss COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate
					

FDA’s VRBPAC will meet on Dec. 10, 2020, to discuss Pfizer and BioNtech’s emergency use authorization request for a COVID-19 vaccine.




					www.fda.gov
				



.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has scheduled a meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) on Dec. 10 to discuss the request for emergency use authorization (EUA) of a COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer, Inc. in partnership with BioNTech Manufacturing GmbH.

*“The FDA has been preparing for the review of EUAs for COVID-19 vaccines for several months and stands ready to do so as soon as an EUA request is submitted.  While we cannot predict how long the FDA’s review will take, the FDA will review the request as expeditiously as possible, while still doing so in a thorough and science-based manner, so that we can help make available a vaccine that the American people deserve as soon as possible".*

The FDA intends to make background materials available to the public, including the meeting agenda and committee roster, no later than two business days prior to the meeting.



So the meeting is on the 10th, all the data will be public by the 8th at the latest. Will undoubtedly whipsaw markets. I'll post it here as soon as it's out. Energy cannot make its mind up what it wants to do. I was thinking this probably means to sell on the friday before but we'll see.

They meet for the same thing for the moderna vaccine a week later on the 17th.


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## over9k (28 November 2020)

Boring day. Exactly the same as all the other fridays/end of weeks:




A rotation into big tech, the r2k being the 2nd best on the defensive days vs the best on the speculative, barbell spread holds.

Fangs, zoom, semiconductors all pulled hard just as expected, and ERY did exactly what it's done every other week too: Plummet on monday, then slowly increase/correct into week end.







Post-vaccine tells the real story though. Check them out since the bottom-out after the pfizer vaccine was announced:







Roughly 30% runs since their bottom. Of particular note is zoom - the rest are triple leveraged but zoom is just zoom.


Finally, my (so far) ill-fated energy bet. Remember me saying how it's opened at some wild number each monday, then slowly corrected in a dull parabola for the rest of the week?




It looks like stairs. All a week apart, because the vaccines were all just so conveniently announced exactly a week apart from one another.


I've actually added to it today (though with some insurance this time) and continued to hold everything else so you can all be sure that we're going to get _another _vaccine announcement this weekend or early monday morning to wipe me out for a 4th time.



Jokes aside, the FDA meeting in a fortnight and the public data released week after next will obviously whipsaw energy again so the plan is to sell next friday and convert whatever the final figure ends up being into a bet _on _energy.

Every other week it was reversing itself into week-end until we just got another vaccine announced over the weekend, then _another_... surely there can't be a fourth one out this weekend, can there?

CAN THERE?


----------



## over9k (28 November 2020)

Other strange patterns in graphs:

Virus data.






Note how there seems to be two graphs in one? One line of peaks slightly lower than another? As if there's two datasets paralleling each other?

Well there actually kind of is. Look closely, note how one curve is of five spikes in a row and the other curve is of two dips in a row.


This is because we have a five day work week and a two day weekend, and people are staying indoors of weekend but still have to go to work during the week. Contact tracing revealed a while ago that the vast vast vast majority of infections are being contracted by people at work and the data's reflecting that in a pair of 5 on/2 off waves perfectly.

With that in mind, you can see how the next 5 days of data are going to be way worse than the previous two. In other words, don't mistake the past couple of days as some kind of turning of the corner or what have you. They need to be compared to the other two trough days a week ago, and you can see that they're significantly higher.


The other thing we can glean from the data is that the trough days are always sundays & mondays, so with the previous estimates of a roughly two week lead time from infection to data point, it looks like it takes 15 days from infection to positive test.

With thanksgiving being on the 26th and people obviously getting home a day or two before then, we can therefore expect the thanksgiving "superspread" to show up in case spikes around the 10th-11th (maybe 9th) of december - exactly when the FDA is meeting to decide on approving the pfizer vaccine for emergency use (the meeting is on the 10th) and just a couple of days after the latest point at which they'll make the full study results publicly available (which is the 8th).

Talk about timing...


We can therefore assume that week after next, particularly later in the week after next, to be volatile beyond belief as the virus data goes stratospheric while we get the study results/emergency approval meeting to yank the market back in the other direction at almost the exact same time. Just to add further uncertainty to this, the meeting on the 10th is only a _discussion _meeting, not the day that they're going to actually decide to approve it or not. With that being said, markets are obviously going to massively react to an overall positive meeting which I think it is pretty clearly going to be.

It'll obviously pay to be watching the news like a hawk as this image of zoom's stock price on the day that the new york lockdowns were triggered:




Shows just how quickly and just how significantly markets reacted to even that.



And this is before we even start on the meeting for emergency approval of the moderna vaccine a week later on the 17th and then the mother of all superspreader events, christmas, on the 25th.

We could (probably will) get emergency use authorisation of both vaccines right in the window between the superspreader numbers hitting the data around the 10th-ish of december and the 9th-ish of january, with all four events whipsawing the market in complete opposite directions, with absolutely no way of actually positioning in anticipation of the superspread numbers despite our ability to predict when they're going to occur, because we have no idea when the emergency approval will actually happen.

You could make a fortune if you knew even roughly when the vaccines are likely to get their emergency use authorisations, but because we don't (yet), the only real play available is to bet that we won't get them before mid january (as we DO know that virus data is just going to run and run and run until at least then), and we have no idea when we'll actually get the authorisation.


I'm currently doing a lot of digging trying to find a typical emergency use authorisation timeline but so far I've found absolute donuts. If anyone happens to know (or has found out) then that would be a very, very handy bit of information.


In the meantime, we've seen how the R2K index has pulled basically either the hardest on positive virus news days (e.g vaccines) or the 2nd hardest on negative ones, so we absolutely keep the light end of our barbell spread. The question becomes when the right time to nuke the heavy end (with megatech etc) and the stuck-at-home stuff like zoom is. If we could be sure we aren't going to get emergency vaccine use authorisation beforehand, that time would be about mid january just after the xmas spread hits the data and we're over the hill of winter, but without knowing when we're likely to get said authorisation, that play becomes a total stab in the dark.

If I can't find that info and at least make *some* kind of estimate, by the end of next week it'll probably be time to move a lot of positions into index ETF's and just be overweight on the r2k with them.

At least we know that r2k, moderna, and semiconductors are solid bets.


----------



## sptrawler (28 November 2020)

In the meantime, quantitative easing has to be withdrawn and those businesses that really were destroyed finally collapse?


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## over9k (28 November 2020)

The stimulus payments stop on the 31st, but the government shuts down on the 11th too (remember back in the obama era when the government ran out of money and all the public servants were on leave without pay because congress/senate wouldn't approve any more deficits to pay them with?).

You'd really like to think that the politicians can get their acts together by then, even just approving a stop-gap package until april or whenever it is they estimate everyone will actually be vaccinated, but we all know politicians...


----------



## sptrawler (28 November 2020)

What is very interesting is the reaction by China regarding Australia, they are using muscle to gain leverage.
I would be very surprised if this doesn't backfire big time, they criticised Trump for tariffs, yet impose them on us.
It wont end well, there has been many on here that cheer on China, but I feel the loyalty door only swings one way, at the moment.
Time will tell, the first world brought China out of the wilderness, unless they engage it wont end well IMO.








						Crisis looms in sea and forest as China tightens export bans
					

As China ramps up its assault on Australia's exports, a crisis is occurring in plantation forests and the crayfishing industry in south-west Victoria and south-east South Australia.




					www.smh.com.au
				












						China slaps up to 200% tariffs on Australian wine
					

It has been investigating the "dumping" of cheap wines in China - an accusation Australia denies.



					www.bbc.com
				



.


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## over9k (28 November 2020)

Thinking about it, even if the stimulus money runs out, businesses which can operate from home have obviously managed to stay in business and thus haven't been directly reliant on stimulus, so even if the market itself slumps, zoom etc would still be the best of a bad bunch. 

That is predicated on no vaccine authorisation though.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 November 2020)

_Source: TTMYGH_


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## over9k (28 November 2020)

Yeah they learned in the GFC that you can't mess about with this kind of thing. They were being told that in the GFC too, but didn't listen then.


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## qldfrog (29 November 2020)

over9k said:


> Yeah they learned in the GFC that you can't mess about with this kind of thing. They were being told that in the GFC too, but didn't listen then.



Funny,
My interpretation is:
Yeah they learned in the GFC that you can mess about with this kind of thing....


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## qldfrog (29 November 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> View attachment 115524
> 
> _Source: TTMYGH_



Following Dona interesting data, i thought about the bad boy Sweden who initially did not play the game
From data i got doing basic searches
in post gfc they used 1 billion USD on stimulus but used it properly with great recoveryhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...f-the-recovery/2011/06/21/AGyuJ3iH_story.html
For the current reset,  make no mistake,they participate:
$30 billion initially and extra $12 billions in September budget 
So $1 billion gfc to $42 billions covid...


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## noirua (30 November 2020)

27 October 2020


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## over9k (30 November 2020)

Encouraging sign.


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## over9k (1 December 2020)

Alright so it's an hour before open and futures basically look almost the same as they did every other weekend this month before a(nother) vaccine was announced:




With all the "oh dear we still have winter to get through" stocks well into the green premarket while almost everything else is in the red:






I tripled my bet against energy on friday (albeit with some insurance now) so we can obviously expect another vaccine to be announced in the next hour.


Jokes aside, this week might actually finally play out how I'd predicted all the other weeks to before the 2nd & 3rd vaccines were announced so hopefully I can stop getting things only half correct for everyone.

Moderna has just released the full results of their trial (94.5% effective) and is planning to file for EUA today but this (for a change) _hasn't _sent the market beserk so that's actually a good sign for ERY & my other positions.


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## over9k (1 December 2020)

Alright gotta be quick today as I'm clocking out early again so I'll cover the big stuff & do some far more detailed stuff tonight.

Here's the close numbers, which I'd been expecting basically every monday of this month but we kept getting new vaccines every monday, trump loss admissions etc so they never happened:




With that being said, it's also the end of the month and so a whole ton of options will have expired and/or been executed today and the froth taken off the month so like every other end of the month day it's a bit of an anomaly.

Here's the month's numbers for context:




Futures are right back to the deep in the green post-vaccine "normal" four hours after close with big & small cap leading the way once again:




And semiconductors flew yet again despite _everything _being in the red and I'll explain why and everything related to it later tonight:





I'm going to do a series of much meatier posts later in the evening covering market segments (semiconductors and what they've effected, oil and what's effecting that, vaccine info, virus/lockdown stats and actions, macro economic figures, the works) so if you recheck this thread a bit before bed this evening I should have updated it. 

In the meantime, I need to sleep!


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

Alright so let's start with semiconductors because they have absolutely been the play of the _year _so far and they're also quite easy to explain.

Here's the numbers for both yesterday, premarket today, and the year as a whole:




And, well, this image that came up in my facebook feed yesterday really explains it perfectly:




Fact is that semiconductors (microchips) have absolutely flown off the (digital) shelves constantly this year because people have been stuck at home and needed something to do - that means playing videogames, watching tv, watching youtube, etc etc. Not complex in the slightest.

The year has also coincided with a new generation of graphics cards being released by both of the major producers (nvidia and amd) as well as both of the new generations of the playstation & xbox being released. This has created, well, the perfect storm for chip demand.

Now, much of the world's semiconductors are actually manufactured in taiwan by taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing corp (tsmc) and samsung (obviously in south korea). nvidia & amd, the two producers of graphics chips (gpu's) bought up all of tsmc's existing manufacturing capacity way back in april: https://www.gizchina.com/2020/04/27/nvidia-and-amd-bought-up-all-excess-capacity-at-tsmc/

And the fact is that as a result, most of the world's microchip manufacturing capacity has been running at 100% for _months _and yet chips are still on back order until Q2 next year.

However, TSMC have been wanting to build a new manufacturing plant in the united states for quite a while to get on the better side of both logistical (I've already shown how container ships are backed up at the ports by the dozen) and political risk from china, but these things are immensely complex as they need to be about 10,000 times cleaner than a hospital operating room and so can't just be built in a couple of months. However, TSMC just a couple of weeks ago finally received approval from the arizona state government to build a new $12 billion plant in arizona: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-arizona-fab-investment

Which was obviously a massive boon for their stock price on account of the fact that this is going to increase their ability to supply chips (and thus make money) _massively. _

But if new generations of gpu's from both companies as well as new generations of gaming consoles being released at the same time wasn't enough of a storm, well, apple released a new iphone generation in mid october (at the same time) as _well_ - another product selling by the literal tens of millions and on backorder for _months. _

So all this has combined into the perfect storm for microchip demand. Any one of these events would have upped demand significantly, but put all of them together, and you get the aforementioned flotilla's of container ships that the U.S literally cannot unload fast enough that I showed in a previous post.

The side effects of this are 1: transport/logistics companies like fedex & ups being at all time highs and literally unable to get enough vans, drivers etc to actually deliver stuff in a timely manner and 2: the copper price absolutely screaming now well past its 3 year peak and on a 7 year high with futures _still_ climbing:








The reason why copper in particular has done so well (and aluminium has done well too) is because it is overwhelmingly copper (with aluminium also/instead used in some products) which is used to _cool _all these microchips.

A decent pc or gaming console can draw several hundred watts of power and that power, as known from the first law of thermodynamics, converts perfectly into _heat, _heat which must be dissipated.

So, the chips are cooled using heatsinks - which are literally big chunks of copper which come in all kinds of shapes and sizes which conduct the heat off the chip and then usually have air blown through them with fans to dissipate said heat:
	

		
			
		

		
	




As you can imagine, this record level of demand for microchips has been quite the boon for basically everyone that has anything to do with it (copper producers, chip producers, shipping companies which move the materials to their place of manufacture before then moving the final product to the end user, so on and so forth) and these are overwhelmingly the "emerging economies" of the world which have obviously been hit by the virus far harder than we here in the first world have, and I'll cover what's happened with them in the next post.

Disclosure: I hold SOXL and with a lot of microchip-including products on backorder until Q2 next year, I have no intention to sell.


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

Alright so just like how it's always the poorest states and people in a country that are hit the hardest by any kind of national economic downturn or disaster, it's also generally the poorest countries which are hit the hardest by a _global _downturn (or in this case, depression). 

It also stands to reason that absent the depression being some kind of knockout blow to an industry or country already in structural decline (e.g bricks & mortar retail), the people, the industries, and the countries hit hardest by a depression probably also have the most to rise once the recovery begins (e.g aviation).

So, with a U.S election and _three _vaccines announced this month, you can imagine that just like how all the beaten down sectors like aviation saw massive inflows and thus gains this month, so too did emerging markets:




However, like most things like this, the devil is in the details. 

What I'm trying to say here, and as you've probably suspected from my previous post, is that "emerging markets" are not created equal. "Emerging market" is really an incredibly broad term, and to understand what's gone on, like with all economic analysis, we need to get more granular. 


I spent the whole previous post talking about how the production lines, factories etc throughout the world's tech industry have basically just been running flat out all year and I suspect you've probably guessed where I'm going with this post, because hey, most of asia (and its several billion inhabitants) is actually still an emerging market (and people, including me, forget this all the time).

As a result, when we take a closer look at emerging markets, they actually look like this:




As you can see, it's _asia _that is the standout performer here (on account of all the tech the rest of us have been ordering literally by the shipload) and also thus the emerging market which has both driven basically all of the emerging market gains we've seen since march:




But actually gained the _least _(it was obviously still a lot, as it was for everything) from the vaccine news we've seen this month:




What this tells us is that if we want to bet on a post-vaccine "rebound" region, we actually want to _avoid _asia and focus on latin america (LatAm) or even better, europe, the middle-east, and africa (EMEA).


Unfortunately, MSCI does not yet do an etf for their latam & emea region-specific emerging market indexes, but ishares (blackrock) do one for "emerging markets asia" (remember that not all of asia is an emerging market) and the ticker is EEMA.

There are, however, dozens of region-specific etf's (including leveraged ones) which are obviously pretty easy to find if you just type "broad latin america" or "broad asia" etc into etfdb's search bar. LBJ will triple lever you into latin america for example.


But if you want to bet on their emerging market indexes as a whole, there are lots of etf's for that, including leveraged, inverse, and leveraged inverse:


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

Alright so in virus news, wouldn't you know it, the yanks are basically doing everything they can to avoid lockdowns again, doing all kinds of absolutely retarded things (like changing from number of positive tests to positive test rate) to avoid doing so:







But the lockdowns they are imposing are milquetoast at best:




And so we see data like this:




And let's not kid ourselves here - how many businesses actually reopened their offices? Vanishingly few. Fact is that people are now largely voluntarily staying home etc and so the lockdowns really aren't changing that much. 

But the fact is that the real key metric here is this one:




Fact is that the real number which will bring the country to its knees is hospitalisations. Not only that, but medical staff numbers off work sick is increasing at the same time as hospitalisations are, so the healthcare system is very seriously looking like buckling under the strain.

At least the authorities, incompetent as they are, are starting to recognise this though.


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

I also mentioned a little while ago about how we're in winner-take-all scenario's in almost all markets (hence the barbell spread for our trading/investing) and how wall st is getting the spoils of main street getting slaughtered.

Well, it's also happening on a larger scale on wall st, as companies go bust basically just in order of previous market cap and their bigger competitors then swoop in and buy them up for peanuts.





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




_"Companies have announced $760 billion of acquisitions so far in the fourth quarter, the highest for this point in the period since 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

November was the busiest month of the year by number of deals, the data show. The tally got a boost Monday with financial data giant S&P Global Inc.’s takeover of IHS Markit Ltd. for about $39 billion in stock, the year’s second-biggest transaction.

The latest series of megadeals, added to the record third-quarter haul of *$993 billion*, is helping volumes recover after the Covid-19 crisis triggered a steep decline in the first half of the year"._

And the authorities haven't been able to do a damn thing to stop it:




Despite the national debt now looking like this:




The really depressing part is that the U.S's debt is actually pretty good compared to most of the first world.


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

At least there's some light at the end of the tunnel:





The FDA meets to discuss emergency approval of the pfizer vaccine on the 10th and moderna's on the 17th. Pfizer's is the -70 one, moderna's is the normal freezer temp one. The moderna one is the one that most of us are undoubtedly going to get for those reasons, though hospitals and research facilities with their cold storage will be able to roll some of the pfizer ones out to their own staff until we can begin the mass vaccination process with the moderna one. 

Looks like it'll be time to torch a few positions pretty soon.


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

Meanwhile, manhattan office space vacancy rates crack their 2003 peak after 9/11:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nt-in-manhattan-hits-highest-level-since-2003 

Many of which will never return thanks to the work-from-home revolution.


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## qldfrog (2 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Alright so in virus news, wouldn't you know it, the yanks are basically doing everything they can to avoid lockdowns again, doing all kinds of absolutely retarded things (like changing from number of positive tests to positive test rate) to avoid doing so:
> 
> View attachment 115674
> 
> ...



lockdowns in the US would be as useless as it has been in Europe: just slowing the inevitable: smooth the curve..slow not reduce numbers
Unless you believe in vaccine suddenly really  working..yes I know....it is just a political and economic move with severe impacts should I say efficiency? in slaughtering mean street as you have noted many time: the triumph of big corporatism
So with Biden and more expected lock-down, it is soon time to short again the small part of the market


----------



## qldfrog (2 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Alright so just like how it's always the poorest states and people in a country that are hit the hardest by any kind of national economic downturn or disaster, it's also generally the poorest countries which are hit the hardest by a _global _downturn (or in this case, depression).
> 
> It also stands to reason that absent the depression being some kind of knockout blow to an industry or country already in structural decline (e.g bricks & mortar retail), the people, the industries, and the countries hit hardest by a depression probably also have the most to rise once the recovery begins (e.g aviation).
> 
> ...



about EEMA, just a warning, there is not much emergent market in the portfolio:
I would place Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc in an Asian emerging market, but EEMA is mostly established China superstars:
see for yourself:


and samsung or tencent/alibaba as emerging market is, as you pointed out an elastic notion


----------



## over9k (2 December 2020)

Yes I would have thought that looking into an etf's holdings before buying it goes without saying frog lol.

I'm obviously quite exposed to everything you listed through SOXL & FNGU, both of which have been rockstars all year 

Good post by frog - remember to take a look at the holdings of etf's first as you might find you can get exposed to a nicer basket of stocks from another direction like I have with FNGU & SOXL.


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## over9k (2 December 2020)

Alright so it was a WILD day.




And it ended like this:




So our barbell spread comes 1st & 3rd on the day. It's been 1 & 2 or 1 & 3 pretty much every day since the first vaccine announcement bar a couple of days. Still absolutely the way to go.

So with the nasdaq the highest, we know that the fangs would have pulled the hardest, and they did:



And even though today & yesterday were wildly different days, soxl pulled a solid 5-6% on both:





But today had a whole heap of major events occur, not all of which anything to do with the virus.

First, congress agreed to audit every single chinese company listed on the NYSE, so every chinese company, especially the red-hot electric vehicle stocks that everyone have been raving about, was slaughtered. This is actually good for the right ones in the long run because let's not kid ourselves here, there's going to be no shortage of dodgy accounting exposed. However, confidence in the companies (that didn't do anything dodgy) will obviously soar once they clear the audit.

I hold NIO but no others. No plans to sell.

Second, the treasury secretary was grilled by one of their committees and that went well, and after his comments/advice to the politicians (he basically told them the market is totally reliant on stimulus so we're all f***ed if they don't get their act together and we'll see a repeat of march if they don't), indication of what he's going to do and a few political comments, a "skinny stimulus" of "only" 900 billion or so looks all but agreed upon, so it looks like there will be stimulus to get the market through the next quarter (remember that the original one back in march was 4 trillion so the actual per-day level of the stimulus isn't a great deal different).

Third, the meeting to decide on emergency use of the pfizer vaccine has been brought forward to after market close _today, _so a stimulus almost certainty with a vaccine deployment almost certainty gives us a market pricing in both of these and in doing so, sending much of the market soaring whilst the stay-at-home stuff was pasted.

Result? Nirvana for the market as a whole, but armageddon for some individual sectors and stocks.

Moderna was slaughtered after opening well into the green again as the FDA don't meet for the moderna vaccine until the 17th, so it's going to miss the first wave of deployments. I've kept holding because fact is that -70 vaccines are not going to be rolled out by the billion in the next couple of weeks and I think it fair to say that if they've brought the pfizer meeting forward, they're going to bring the moderna one forward too. Moderna's the long play on the vaccines IMO.

Chinese companies were all massacred.

Stuck-at-home companies were all massacred.


Combine announcements of both compulsory audits of chinese companies and a bringing forward of vaccine deployment on the same day and zoom, being both a chinese company and a stuck-at-home one, plummeted over 15% just on the day, wiping most of its post-vaccine gains out just at opening price. The big curveball is how it keeps doing after the pandemic and fact is it posted earnings after close yesterday and actually beat the +300% estimates or whatever they were reporting something like +330%. Considering it had already plummeted by open I just held on account of those beatings-of-estimates and it didn't move much over the course of the rest of the day.

Fact is that zoom is going to be a hell of a bargain at some point as the work-from-home revolution is _not _going to go away after the pandemic. When that point is is obviously the hard part as we're going to undoubtedly have plenty more lockdowns and virus spread yet.

I was planning on taking profits on friday (zoom has been on both a consistent uptrend and spiked every friday this month on account of the whole virus numbers & risk thing for the weekend) before the vaccine emergency use authorisation meeting scheduled for next week so that being brought forward has KO'd me almost entirely there.


Told you something "bad" would happen!


----------



## over9k (2 December 2020)

CRITICAL INFORMATION FOR ALL INVESTMENT DECISIONS:


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 December 2020)




----------



## over9k (2 December 2020)

Yeah gdp growth is unfortunately of little concern. 

National debt, now there's something to worry about.


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## over9k (3 December 2020)

Total nothing day today guys. Oil & energy soared on results of the opec meeting - nothing to do with the virus. Markets were almost flat otherwise.

I nuked my ERY position yesterday and sold it almost perfectly breakeven so I've gotten away with it by the skin of my teeth.

The next bet will be _on _energy but timing that's going to be a pain. Markets are just flat as virus data counteracts stimulus probability and emergency vaccine rollout news.

I wouldn't be surprised if markets are quite flat and search for direction for a while now actually. Only once the moderna vaccine starts getting rolled out do I suspect we'll see any kind of significant uptick.

Everything that was massacred yesterday (zoom, nio, moderna etc) rebounded, so that's a good sign longer term. It's now just a waiting game to see when the rebound (and rotation) actually starts. At that point, all you need to do is grab a couple of index etf's & ride the market.


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## over9k (4 December 2020)

Alright so choppy day, as you can see the r2k+nasdaq combo was a winner again, stimulus news plus opec news was good, virus data was bad, but the key is to ask which virus data and why it matters.

I made this post a few days ago:



over9k said:


> But the fact is that the real key metric here is this one:
> 
> Fact is that the real number which will bring the country to its knees is hospitalisations. Not only that, but medical staff numbers off work sick is increasing at the same time as hospitalisations are, so the healthcare system is very seriously looking like buckling under the strain.
> 
> ...





And today's data looks like this:








Yet the market was, well, choppy, because a few both good and bad announcements (opec, stimulus, lockdowns) all happened at once. Stimulus and opec good, cases and deaths made no difference, hospitalisations also didn't matter until the powers that be told us that they do and why:





I mentioned how it's the hospitalisations which are going to determine the lockdowns, deaths and cases be damned, and wouldn't you know it, here we are. 

Ergo, despite the stimulus & opec news, the number we really need to watch is this:




And as you can see, it hasn't even so much as levelled out yet.

With the very first vaccines for medical staff & nursing homes scheduled for the 15th, it's pretty fair to say we're going to get plenty more cases and therefore some pretty decent shutdowns in order to prevent the healthcare system from collapsing, and those lockdowns are what drives the market because case number increases, natural human isolation behaviour like this etc etc:




is well & truly already priced in at this point.


----------



## over9k (4 December 2020)

As an aside, here's how much oil is still floating around the world's oceans in those tankers I showed a few posts back: 




And I found a decent shot of one of the tankers being pushed around by a tugboat to put their size in perspective. You obviously couldn't really tell how big they were from the air in the pictures I posted previously, but once you get closer and put a tug next to one you can see that they're freaking huge:





If you want to get more granular with this and find out what ships are sitting where and what capacity they are and what's being paid for them and so on and so forth then the service you want is vortexa: https://www.vortexa.com/

But as you can imagine, info like that isn't free. If you have a bloomberg or cnbc or any other decent intel subscription(s) it'll obviously be included though.


----------



## over9k (5 December 2020)

Theaters news:

Warner brothers are now putting their films on HBO max (their streaming service) the same day they're releasing them in cinemas.









						Warner Bros. Says All 2021 Films Will Be Streamed Right Away (Published 2020)
					

Seventeen movies will each arrive in theaters and on HBO Max simultaneously, the biggest challenge yet to Hollywood’s traditional way of doing business.




					www.nytimes.com
				






Streaming services are now allowing the cinemas to own the distribution of the films as well as the production. Classic vertical integration. Cinema owners/companies are, as you can imagine, seething, but there's nothing they can do about it.


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## over9k (5 December 2020)

Alright so it's pretty fair to say that markets are well & truly pricing the recovery in now.

Despite the hospital data cracking the 100k mark and _still _climbing:




And jobs numbers released today being way worse than expected:






Virus numbers still playing merry hell with everything:








Markets couldn't have cared less. Stimulus looks like it's finally going to _actually_ happen:




See the irony is that with the vaccines now on the way (so to speak) worse virus numbers actually strengthen the case for stimulus (which is better described as support and the politicians etc are now calling it "targeted assistance" but that's a different discussion) as the whole "we can't keep doing this forever" argument doesn't hold, all we need to do now is last until XYZ point (pfizer vaccine looking like really ramping up Q3 next year but moderna will be more like end of Q1/maybe april) so the package is just a stop-gap measure, which is a much easier thing to actually get done/supported/passed.


As a result, markets behaved as if another vaccine was announced:




The fangs barely ended green, stay-at-home ended in the red, and microcaps took off like a gunshot, moving nearly 3x the next index. Whether you were holding any of the other indexes didn't matter today so long as you held a microcap etf. In short, barbell spread is still the way to go but the critical part is the microcap end - the other end is far choppier, but microcaps have been a consistent best play since the first vaccine.

So, too, have semiconductors, the sector you have absolutely wanted to be in the whole time both pre & post vaccine, and, well, they hit nosebleed territory today:




Making near a three-bagger since june:




With the pfizer vaccine being deployed on the 15th and then the much easier to deploy moderna one coming shortly after I can't see markets dropping from here on out, probably just a flatline at worst, so unless you have a hot stock pick it's just a matter of dumping your money in some index funds and sector etf's and riding the wave.

I converted my small bet against energy into a small bet _on _energy yesterday and put my money where my mouth is and bought the big oil etf rather than the energy etf and check out the result:




Remember when my other post showed how big oil moved twice as much as regular energy on vaccine news? Same thing today. So it looks like (based on this admittedly small amount of data) big oil's going to move about twice as much as regular energy going forward (assuming that the market continues pricing a recovery in).

The same thing happened with big tech vs regular tech throughout the year too so it looks like the previous play of buying up the biggest players in a sector when betting on it is still the way to go.

So that's good! That means we have half of our next play already figured out.



But to be honest, that's actually the easy part - the hard part now becomes deciding which sector(s) to buy up going forward. We already knew that energy & aviation were hit the hardest by the pandemic so they (unless something has fundamentally changed the market permanently like working from home has with commercial real estate or streaming services have with cinemas or e-tail vs bricks & mortar or anything else like that) are likely to rebound the most going forward.

It'd be great to get some other members' input here as I've got a few in mind to write off long term like bricks & mortar retail as there was quite a bit that was already in structural decline before the virus hit and they've basically been KO'd permanently by the virus/will only return to a shadow of their former selves. Same goes with cinemas, office space, and business travel. Conversely, e-tail will remain strong. Energy obviously has a long way to go but I can't see it returning to previous levels as the remote work revolution plus electric car push has changed a lot:



And per-capita energy consumption actually declines with age too.



The big one I can think of off the top of my head is _healthcare. _People have avoided hospitals, doctors' surgeries etc like the plague (quite literally) through this pandemic and so with the huge demographic bulge that is the baby boomers only getting older this whole time I can see both a ridiculous pent up demand for healthcare as well as a structural _increase _in demand for healthcare longer term from demographic demand for healthcare on account of the very simple fact that 60-80 years after a baby boom you're necessarily going to have a healthcare boom (followed by a death boom).

The same goes for leisure travel/tourism as people want to just get out of the house and the boomers also want to go & enjoy their retirement, which means spend their retirement savings.

Same goes for restaurants/hospitality.


Anyone else think of anything else off the top of their head?


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## over9k (5 December 2020)

How about the banks?

They're the same story. Big banks have recovered way more despite not being hit as hard as the smaller regional ones. Ergo, it's not simply a question of one class being more volatile than the other like with some other sectors - you're better off with your cash in big banks rather than smaller ones either way:


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## wayneL (5 December 2020)

Effects on the street level, small businesses getting the Roger, where the sun don't shine, without even the dignity of a little bit of lube:









						Restaurant Owner Exposes LA Mayor in Video All of America Needs to See NOW
					

This is what bureaucrats are doing to America's business owners. It's pathetic.




					rumble.com


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## over9k (5 December 2020)

Oh yeah wayne. The big players are cleaning house left, right, and centre. This year has had the largest number of buyouts, takeovers, and mergers in history.

Every single business that goes to the wall is a business that can be absorbed by whatever players remain. Corporate lawyers etc have never been so busy.

Worst case the existing players pick up the market share directly rather than absorb the company/business that's gone to the wall, so either way, the bigger you are, the more you win.

Unless you're one of those small & unique/new disruptive growth companies that's increased/benefited tenfold from the pandemic (like zoom), you are _f***ed. _





But don't worry, it's going to get worse:












__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				



_
Covid-19 cases in Los Angeles will reach 500,000 by the end of the year based on the current pace of infection, and deaths could surpass 11,000, Mayor Eric Garcetti said... “We’re perilously close to running out of ICU beds,” Garcetti said in a briefing, calling the outbreak “the greatest threat to lives in Los Angeles... *At this rate of infection, Los Angeles will be out of hospital beds in two to four weeks*", he said._

Meanwhile, the stock market continues to scream, with futures already at this point and it's not even sunday:




I keep saying that you can't beat this, fighting it is an exercise in futility. As frog said previously, your only hope is to get on board with it before you get left behind.


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## wayneL (5 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Oh yeah wayne. The big players are cleaning house left, right, and centre. This year has had the largest number of buyouts, takeovers, and mergers in history.
> 
> Every single business that goes to the wall is a business that can be absorbed by whatever players remain. Corporate lawyers etc have never been so busy.
> 
> ...



Agree.

It's been my thesis for probably 30 years or more in one form or another. 99% of those years I have been called a nutter, conspiracy theorist and whatnot.

And here we are, it is actually happening, and actually enabled and facilitated by we narcoleptic plebeians.

Yes. We are farked.


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## Country Lad (5 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Big banks have recovered way more despite not being hit as hard as the smaller regional ones. Ergo, it's not simply a question of one class being more volatile than the other like with some other sectors - you're better off with your cash in big banks rather than smaller ones either way:





@over9k although percentage wise all banks have recovered about the same amount, I would agree big banks are likely a better option than the smaller ones but we still need to be careful of which big banks we go with.  NAB and WBC are not real standouts over the years.


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## sptrawler (6 December 2020)

Country Lad said:


> @over9k although percentage wise all banks have recovered about the same amount, I would agree big banks are likely a better option than the smaller ones but we still need to be careful of which big banks we go with.  NAB and WBC are not real standouts over the years.
> 
> 
> View attachment 115909



Yes the problem with the banks is, if t hey are making money  people are lpsing money.
So it is seen as as the banks robbing their clients, which is the general public.
On the other hand, if they dont make money, they cant lend money.
It is a real conundrum.


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## qldfrog (6 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes the problem with the banks is, if t hey are making money  people are lpsing money.
> So it is seen as as the banks robbing their clients, which is the general public.
> On the other hand, if they dont make money, they cant lend money.
> It is a real conundrum.



Banks here in Oz are a bit different as the banks here are most and nearly only real estate, so different from the US  and europe


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## Country Lad (6 December 2020)

Country Lad said:


> ................ but we still need to be careful of which big banks we go with.  NAB and WBC are not real standouts over the years.




I was curious to see how the banks went since Covid started to affect the market.  The main change is BOQ from worst to best and WBC from mid performance to worst.


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## No Trust (6 December 2020)

Given the health catastrophe about to envelop the United States, *expect a financial meltdown in the first quarter of 2021*...
The US has never had a modern day Health Crisis of this magnitude...


The Coming Financial Crisis of 2021 | Peak Prosperity 




over9k said:


> Oh yeah wayne. The big players are cleaning house left, right, and centre. This year has had the largest number of buyouts, takeovers, and mergers in history.
> 
> Every single business that goes to the wall is a business that can be absorbed by whatever players remain. Corporate lawyers etc have never been so busy.
> 
> ...


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## over9k (6 December 2020)

Hmm dunno trust. The first vaccines are due on the 15th. 50 million by year end apparently. The moderna one is the one they're really going to produce by the zillion.


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## over9k (7 December 2020)

Yelp: Local Economic Impact Report
					

Restaurants remain hardest hit, permanent and temporary closures increase




					www.yelpeconomicaverage.com


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## over9k (7 December 2020)

And it just keeps getting worse.




I've held on to zoom, and am about 20% cash at this point. Almost everything else is in the industry/sector etf's I've mentioned already.


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## over9k (7 December 2020)

You'll like this one @qldfrog 

 


There is a reason why the stock market just keeps running and running and running.


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## wayneL (7 December 2020)

Well done Dan


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## qldfrog (7 December 2020)

over9k said:


> You'll like this one @qldfrog
> 
> 
> 
> ...




between that and the screwing of elections by the Biden clique, I think it is a call to arms in my view for Americans.
This created misery has been orchestrated and we are not immune here.


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## Smurf1976 (8 December 2020)

wayneL said:


> Well done Dan



He's not the only one:









						NSW, Victoria lose AAA credit rating
					

Victoria and NSW have both lost their prized AAA credit ratings, reflecting the severe economic and fiscal blow dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic.




					www.news.com.au
				




I expect there'll be more in due course.


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## over9k (8 December 2020)

Alright total snoozefest of a day guys. This screencap really describes it perfectly:




Nasdaq up,r2k flat, others in the red:




Just a very basic/light pullback from the madness of last week to go a bit more defensive, out of energy etc etc. Totally healthy. Light volume as well as everyone's doing what I'm doing too: really just waiting to see what happens next now - virus numbers continue to climb but so does the stimulus stuff etc. I mentioned previously I'm about 20% cash at the moment. Bought some TAN today, that's it.

Nasdaq up but sp500 & dow red and r2k flat means barbell spread was once again the way to be.


So, with the nasdaq up but everything else down, the fangs obviously surged:




Semiconductors kept running because they just _always _go up in this market:




The one to watch is zoom. After the vaccine, it was a golden child running in parallel with fngu (and fngu is triple levered) but plummeted after its earnings report even though it smashed estimates, and has just flatlined ever since:





Which I suspect is the market doing exactly what I'm doing with it - waiting and seeing. It'll obviously be the post-pandemic earnings reports which are really telling but they're obviously a solid 6+ months away. It might make sense to move the money into something else and then come back to zoom later. We'll see.


I suspect the news is going to be no news for a while until we get either something on stimulus or more vaccine emergency use/deployment info. The fangs, semiconductors, and the r2k have been great places to be either way so I'm continuing to hold.


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## over9k (8 December 2020)

More oil info:





Looking at percentages of fleet utilised in floating storage as of October 6, the Suezmax class is down by half from a high of 12% to 6%, Aframax are down by more than half from a high of 14% to 6% and other tanker segments have reverted close to pre-pandemic levels according to Vortexa data. Market participants have expressed doubts towards a resurgence of interest in floating storage with the most recent flurry of time-charter bookings simply a roll-over of existing bookings at much more favourable rates for charterers.
The volume of crude oil in floating storage is also on the decline. Having peaked at 27.8 mn mt in July 2020, offshore crude inventories have since fallen to 16.6 mn mt in floating storage as of October 6, a decrease of 40% from its yearly high. The bulk of offshore crude inventory remains concentrated in Asia, accounting for more than 80% of total volumes, or 13.5 mn mt.
Looking ahead, with Asia remaining the dominant demand region for crude markets, refiners and traders may choose to continue drawing down from existing offshore/onshore stocks, or charter a cargo from overseas. In either case, both scenarios bode ill for tanker earnings as the former will only lead to further tonnage released into the market whilst in the latter, competing tonnage will give charterers the upper hand — owners typically lower their offers to secure cargoes. On the other hand, a  drawdown in crude floating storage will revive freight demand but will be capped by refining rates which is likely to stay low due to weak margins. At least for this year, Q4 strength in tanker markets may not play out to seasonal norms.
In plain english, what this is showing is how tanker rates have changed early in the year (first graph) and then what tankers are actually being used and when (2nd graph). The bottom line is that far fewer tankers are now being used, and when they are, it's only the small ones.


In other words, demand for oil has plummeted, the whole world's onshore storage is full, and onshore production can basically make up whatever small demand we now have, so there's only a few small tankers being sent here & there and that's it. If you were an oil tanker owner, you'd want to hope to christ you made your money earlier in the year as a drop in oil demand has unsurprisingly had a commensurate drop in tanker demand. They were initially being used as floating storage, but now they're not even bothering to do that. 









						Catch-22 for crude tanker markets
					

Catch-22 for crude tanker markets



					www.vortexa.com


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## over9k (9 December 2020)

Excellent day. Everything in the green. Nasdaq & r2k were #1 & #2 yet again. Everything was in the green except the banks so the sp500 was obviously worst. Semiconductors were deep into the green again.

My next buys are PILL & BNKU.


Thanksgiving virus spread numbers are due over the weekend/monday.


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## over9k (9 December 2020)

I won't bore everyone with the details, but headlines like this are just constant: 




Everything, absolutely _everything _to do with microchips is on backorder for _months. _The new AMD gpu's, the new NVIDIA ones, the new iphones, the new playstation, the new xbox, everything.


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## qldfrog (9 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I won't bore everyone with the details, but headlines like this are just constant:
> 
> View attachment 116095
> 
> ...



Don't worry: nothing to do with semiconductor,all to do with containers transport.
Walk in a kmart near you, try to order a tractor....
Shipping was stalled and the flow once stopped takes a while to restart with containers not always at the start of the chain anymore...
So a general problem for any import or imported component assembly..which is everything you can buy


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## over9k (9 December 2020)

Yes but all (most of) the chips are made in asia frog, hence them having to be imported. Most of the kids' toys etc are too. 

Anything (except oil) which has to be imported is on backorder for months, and as far as I know, gadgets/tech are the biggest import.


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## over9k (9 December 2020)

Qantas lays off more workers in the wake of COVID
					

Is quality at the world’s safest airline about to go downhill? Probably. From The Age: Qantas has confirmed it will retrench another 2000 workers and outsource all ground handling work at major Australian airports after rejecting a bid by employees to save their jobs. The redundancies will be...




					www.macrobusiness.com.au
				




Qantas KO's another 2,000 positions, getting it up to 8500 and counting, or about a third of its pre-pandemic workforce.


----------



## sptrawler (10 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Qantas lays off more workers in the wake of COVID
> 
> 
> Is quality at the world’s safest airline about to go downhill? Probably. From The Age: Qantas has confirmed it will retrench another 2000 workers and outsource all ground handling work at major Australian airports after rejecting a bid by employees to save their jobs. The redundancies will be...
> ...



Mr Joyce taking the opportunity to put Qantas on the Jenny Craig diet.

A post I put in the QAN thread in June:
_A buying opportunity will present before this virus is over IMO.
This is when a company needs a ruthless, cold and calculating CEO, check_


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## over9k (10 December 2020)

Stimulus deadlock. Again. Everything massacred. The day even started in the green, but then...


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## moXJO (10 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Don't worry: nothing to do with semiconductor,all to do with containers transport.
> Walk in a kmart near you, try to order a tractor....
> Shipping was stalled and the flow once stopped takes a while to restart with containers not always at the start of the chain anymore...
> So a general problem for any import or imported component assembly..which is everything you can buy



I noticed Christmas lights were missing out of the local bunnings. A lot of places having trouble with stock.


----------



## qldfrog (10 December 2020)

moXJO said:


> I noticed Christmas lights were missing out of the local bunnings. A lot of places having trouble with stock.



Yes, @over9k was looking at the electronic side only, just wanted to highlight it is a much wider problem and may not specifically indicated a boom on these at home products


----------



## satanoperca (10 December 2020)

The economic impact of 9/11?  But the world changed.
" Overnight, the nation recorded more than 3000 covid-19 deaths in a single day, a pandemic record. That’s more than the entire death toll of the 9/11 attacks in 2001 which claimed the lives of 2,996 people. "

So the USA is experiencing or about to experience every day the same result of 9/11. > 3000 deaths in a single day.

Be interesting to see how this pans out.


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## over9k (10 December 2020)

MOVE ALONG NOTHING TO SEE HERE


----------



## greggles (10 December 2020)

You've done an amazing job here @over9k. I think in years to come people who want to know how COVID-19 actually unfolded in an economic sense will come to this thread to see how it happened blow by blow.


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## over9k (11 December 2020)

Oh you...



I actually find economics fascinating, so it's no big deal for me to do this at all. 

Problem is, I find finance unbelievably boring. Bit of a jam I'm in, isn't it?


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## over9k (11 December 2020)

On a related note, yesterday's bloodbath everywhere except energy looks like it's going to repeat tonight (if premarket numbers are anything to go by) which may very well continue until we break the stimulus deadlock.

Markets are understandably jittery as no stimulus package will mean a repeat of march and to put money on faith in politicians is, well...


If this continues past tomorrow we'll be well past the point of taking the froth off the last month and well into "time to start worrying" territory.


----------



## over9k (11 December 2020)

Longer post, short version is at the bottom if you want the cliff notes version.

Oil news: Brent crude just cracked $50 a barrel.




Reason: China's just started buying up a shitload whilst it's still cheap/the american demand hasn't yet rebounded. In short, it's their last shot to get both some cheap oil and cheap tankers to store it in (and just leave it anchored offshore), so they've just ordered everything they can.

_"The bulk of offshore crude inventory remains concentrated in Asia, accounting for more than 80% of total volumes, or 13.5 mn mt"._

Here's the data:




You'll also note that the cargo _exports _(in the top left) I've spoken about in previous posts are almost as high as ever because hey, we're still buying all that chinese shite and importing it over to us.



Significance of the oil price? It makes a lot of previously offline oil rigs profitable to run again.

_"U.S. benchmark oil prices will need to trade in a range of $35 to $45 a barrel next year just to keep production flat, according to a new report by BloombergNEF.

The report highlighted different estimates needed to keep output steady from the major oil plays. For the Permian and Eagle Ford, companies need oil at $35 to $40 a barrel. Meanwhile, the Bakken needs prices in the region of $40 to $45 while Denver-Julesburg probably requires about $45 a barrel.

Up until last week, West Texas Intermediate hadn’t settled above $45 a barrel"_

Read the full report here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/QKRR80T0G1LF


As a result, we've seen energy on an absolute tear today (NRGU, the triple levered big oil etf I mentioned I bought a few days ago, is up 12% as of the time of this post) even on a day where the market has gone defensive with the nasdaq, r2k, and even zoom (which, in my opinion, is THE barometer for how the market is feeling about the virus) back in the green but the dow & sp500 in the red.



So with this spike in chinese demand now holding the oil price comfortably above $45/barrel, we can expect to see a solid increase in operational rig count, which has been on a slow but steady increase for months:




And therefore a solid rebound in profits for the oil companies as it's now, you know, profitable to pump (sell) oil again. As of the time of this post, NRGU is up 12% and climbing.

I also suspect the americans will start exporting oil to china from their currently full onshore storage tanks as there is no longer any concern for american short term oil supply on account of the price now being high enough for the rigs to start operating again. Depending on the contracts, any as yet still unloaded tankers still at anchor in the united states might also be diverted over to china instead too.

It'll be interesting to see what the tank levels and tanker numbers are over the coming few weeks and I'll obviously update once I've got the data.



*The short version of all of this is that china's decided to order a shitload of oil and tankers in the last moments before the american demand rebounds (on account of the vaccine deployment beginning soon) whilst it/they are still cheap and so energy/oil demand has rebounded the oil price to profitable levels weeks (months) before we were otherwise expecting it to. Ergo, the oil companies can start pumping (selling) oil at a profit again now rather than in several months like we were expecting. *


The only question now remaining is political risk, because china's well & truly on the entire world's (and especially america's) shitlist, so if they do something wild like ban oil exports to china, oooooh boy...


----------



## over9k (11 December 2020)

Pfizer vaccine timeline:


----------



## qldfrog (11 December 2020)

Many might have seen the headlines:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/covid19-vaccine-csl-uq-hiv-element-what-went-wrong/12973952
So the csl UQ vaccine attempt is doomed, hiv note is interesting but not surprising for anyone who cared about my initial posts on the origin of covid: more confirmation of the wuhan lab hiv-sars experience gone rogue for anyone eho wants to have an open mind eyes
Anyway, i had the initial feeling that Australia would get an Australian fake vaccine and so bought a nice packet of csl..our only manufacturer of any size, $292 a pop..
Today i decided to sell at the open before the backlash..$295  so no loss but no real win.
We will buy an oversea fake vaccine instead..the submarine saga again...


----------



## over9k (11 December 2020)

I bought moderna a while back. Not selling it.


----------



## Knobby22 (11 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Many might have seen the headlines:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/covid19-vaccine-csl-uq-hiv-element-what-went-wrong/12973952
> So the csl UQ vaccine attempt is doomed, hiv note is interesting but not surprising for anyone who cared about my initial posts on the origin of covid: more confirmation of the wuhan lab hiv-sars experience gone rogue for anyone eho wants to have an open mind eyes
> Anyway, i had the initial feeling that Australia would get an Australian fake vaccine and so bought a nice packet of csl..our only manufacturer of any size, $292 a pop..
> Today i decided to sell at the open before the backlash..$295  so no loss but no real win.
> We will buy an oversea fake vaccine instead..the submarine saga again...



The main vaccine is the pommy Mundipharma version that CSL will be  producing so be ready to buy   back in . The Australian vaccine was only at phase 1 and was only going ahead if the others failed. 
I won't engage in your other conspiracy theory.


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## over9k (11 December 2020)

Lol the hedge funds aren't even beating the market now. 

I'll be fair to them for november though, the election and THREE vaccines gave four near black swan events which sent everyone's heads spinning. You really, really, really should have had at least a nasdaq & r2k tracking etf held though.


----------



## qldfrog (11 December 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The main vaccine is the pommy Mundipharma version that CSL will be  producing so be ready to buy   back in . The Australian vaccine was only at phase 1 and was only going ahead if the others failed.
> I won't engage in your other conspiracy theory.



saying that there are HIV sequences in the virus is conspiracy theory yet the vaccines based on the virus triggers HIV detection test..sure sure...
Anyway, agree that csl could be a buy back  but preferred to be out today and will remain in the coming few days.let's check again in january


----------



## wayneL (11 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> saying that there are HIV sequences in the virus is conspiracy theory yet the vaccines based on the virus triggers HIV detection test..sure sure...
> Anyway, agree that csl could be a buy back  but preferred to be out today and will remain in the coming few days.let's check again in january



Calling someone a "conspiracy theorist" these days is just like calling somebody a racist, misogynist, or whatever now. It's become a cliché.

The biggest conspiracy theory of all, viz NWO, just came out from behind the curtain, all by itself.

I do think Klaus should get himself a fluffy white cat though... or maybe he does have one?


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## over9k (11 December 2020)

The window for vaccine alternatives is rapidly closing. We'll have already rolled out hundreds of millions of doses of moderna & pfizer's ones before any others hit the market, and even then, they're still only going to get a third or whatever of what remains. 

That ship (buying opportunity) has all but sailed. The next play is a recovery one. So far, it's energy/oil that have the most to gain.


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## Smurf1976 (11 December 2020)

over9k said:


> So far, it's energy/oil that have the most to gain.



One thing I haven't seen anyone try to properly work out (and I haven't tried myself either) is exactly what the capacity of the world's oil fields is right now?

That is, if all the taps are fully opened, all the pumps are on and deducting normal routine outages for maintenance etc then what's the daily flow rate globally?

Almost certainly it's lower now than it was a year ago but by how much I wonder?

Point being that so long as consumption remains below capacity, OPEC can control the market but once consumption exceeds capacity, there's nothing anyone can do to avoid a price shock and with that price going to whatever level it takes to get production and consumption back in balance.

An oil shock, a proper one, is at least possible in my view. "Proper" as in it becomes mainstream news, not just financial news.


----------



## sptrawler (12 December 2020)

Good to see that somebody is doing well out of China screwing Australia, nice to see the media is giving us a heads up, as a bit of christmas cheer. 😂 









						How other nations are feasting on China's beef with Australia
					

At least 60 countries count China as their number-one trading partner and they're all keen to fill the void left by the trade bans on Australia.




					www.smh.com.au
				




Ah you have to love the media, don't you.👎


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## sptrawler (12 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I haven't seen anyone try to properly work out (and I haven't tried myself either) is exactly what the capacity of the world's oil fields is right now?
> 
> That is, if all the taps are fully opened, all the pumps are on and deducting normal routine outages for maintenance etc then what's the daily flow rate globally?
> 
> ...



That situation must be a serious possibility.


----------



## qldfrog (12 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That situation must be a serious possibility.



I was hinting at that a week or so ago.once the flow is stopped or maintenance stopped, you can not restart at the previous production level so we know production capacity is below january 2020: worse, as stockpile get used, the actual production potential issues are hidden behind a fake aboundance and we might hit a hard whiplashe.
I have the feeling some people did the computation, not to mention the buying stockpiling frenzy of China currently....
One reason i kept some of my oil exposure.


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## over9k (12 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I haven't seen anyone try to properly work out (and I haven't tried myself either) is exactly what the capacity of the world's oil fields is right now?
> 
> That is, if all the taps are fully opened, all the pumps are on and deducting normal routine outages for maintenance etc then what's the daily flow rate globally?
> 
> ...



Production rate is way, way, way above what we actually need.

The next oil shock will be when the saudi's & iranians start shooting at each other again. Shale oil has made the yanks oil independent, so they're no longer going to play peacekeeper in the region. https://www.military.com/daily-news...s-mideast-raise-fears-of-iranian-attacks.html

It was just starting to kick off at the end of last year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Abqaiq–Khurais_attack

But coronavirus has obviously forestalled it (for now).

This isn't something that's going to happen - it's already happened. It's been in motion for years. The saudi's made that $35 billion odd weapons purchase for a reason. U.S troop deployments are at record lows and only falling. The yanks are just packing their bags and going home and letting the world burn for all they care as america is now self-sufficient in almost everything.

The moment coronvirus is over is the moment the bullets start flying.



This link here explains it all (and how acutely aware the yanks actually are of this situation) perfectly: https://capitalistexploits.at/these-changes-promise-to-completely-change-global-markets/ and it is well worth a read.


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## IFocus (12 December 2020)

over9k said:


> This link here explains it all (and how acutely aware the yanks actually are of this situation) perfectly: https://capitalistexploits.at/these-changes-promise-to-completely-change-global-markets/ and it is well worth a read.





That was a very good read, thanks


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## over9k (12 December 2020)

Yep. Big oil et al is the buy of a generation at the moment. First there was the tech companies with the invention of the internet, then there was the banks in the GFC, then there was the tv/movie streaming business, then the electric car companies, now there's american oil companies et al.

They were as high as they were before coronavirus for a reason. In hindsight, I should have just put a bit of cash on it and just let it sit there until the vaccines were announced and then buy up big but I wasn't expecting three vaccines in a bloody row right as winter hit so meh.

Take a look at the numbers:







You can obviously imagine what's going to happen once double-digit percentages of the world's oil supply is taken out for months in a single afternoon of airstrikes. You can also imagine how long such a shooting match would go on for before there was even a ceasefire long enough to rebuild the facilities, let alone an actual truce.

Like I said - there was a reason why the companies were valued as highly as they were pre-virus. There's also a reason why china's bought up every drop of oil they can get their hands on _now _as I showed in the previous post with the vortexa screencap.


You don't just fill the entirety of your oil reserves and lease every tanker available on top of it if you aren't very, very, very worried about something.


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## over9k (13 December 2020)

We should lift all the lockdowns and just do what sweden did, right?


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## qldfrog (13 December 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 116283
> 
> 
> We should lift all the lockdowns and just do what sweden did, right?



Yeap unchanged..a couple of years ago,icu beds were missing in France during the normal flu season, did you see headline on this at the time?
Or do you remember the 70000 people killed by a heatwave in 2003?
Sweden was not that affected it is true








						2003 European heat wave - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				



Nasty yes but no justification for lockdownsthen you look at number of icu beds per 100000.even before covid








						The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe - Intensive Care Medicine
					

Purpose To quantify the numbers of critical care beds in Europe and to understand the differences in these numbers between countries when corrected for population size and gross domestic product. Methods Prospective data collection of critical care bed numbers for each country in Europe from...




					link.springer.com
				



Sweden:5.8 per 100000
Germany 29.1..no typo
Uk 6.6 and France 11
That might explain the fact you do not see much headlines about german deathtolls don't you think?
With such a pathetic low number of emergency beds, Sweden is doing amazingly well and yet they had no initial lockdown 
lockdown or not in my immediate relatives in France: 13
5 have had confirmed covid,2 suspected earlier this year.
No major issues..just anecdotal figures i know but lockdowns do not work once virus is widespread, except in indéed destroying the economy.and this is our focus.
We are so screwed with our eradication strategy and China jumping on the opportunity to give the fatal blow....


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## over9k (13 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Yeap unchanged..a couple of years ago,icu beds were missing in France during the normal flu season, did you see headline on this at the time?
> Or do you remember the 70000 people killed by a heatwave in 2003?
> Sweden was not that affected it is true
> 
> ...



I think you're kind of making my argument here frog: Horses for courses.

AU has eradicated the virus. It's life as normal but without tourists & foreign students. Same with NZ.


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## qldfrog (13 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I think you're kind of making my argument here frog: Horses for courses.
> 
> AU has eradicated the virus. It's life as normal but without tourists & foreign students. Same with NZ.



What is interesting is that our country has been spared: seasonal weather, sea isolation , etc yet the scare tactic has been relentless so what now? Vaccine or not, sooner or later, we will have to open and see old people dying.just factual...so either we die economically and all starve, or pretend the vaccine works, reopen and see our first wave.
My fear is that the government, as in NZ, has locked itself in a position where it can not admit its error and so will either hide the deathtoll post vaccine or worse, carry on the North Korea solution, with aussies pretending that we can live in isolation.north Korea does so I am sure we can but that means a lot economically and the asx plays might not be the best option financially.. 
I know the usd is doomed mid term but not sure aud is better.Gold?


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## over9k (13 December 2020)

As far as I'm concerned, the effects of the virus closing the borders, bending the universities over the proverbial etc etc is a good thing. The problem lies in the politicians and the budget etc.

AU follows the U.S depressingly closely reference markets. A green day in the U.S at the moment results in the AUD pulling against it. Everything I hold is in AUD & USD. GBP and EUR are going to continue to decline.


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## againsthegrain (13 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> What is interesting is that our country has been spared: seasonal weather, sea isolation , etc yet the scare tactic has been relentless so what now? Vaccine or not, sooner or later, we will have to open and see old people dying.just factual...so either we die economically and all starve, or pretend the vaccine works, reopen and see our first wave.
> My fear is that the government, as in NZ, has locked itself in a position where it can not admit its error and so will either hide the deathtoll post vaccine or worse, carry on the North Korea solution, with aussies pretending that we can live in isolation.north Korea does so I am sure we can but that means a lot economically and the asx plays might not be the best option financially..
> I know the usd is doomed mid term but not sure aud is better.Gold?




I don't think we can go NK,  nobody can pull it off but NK,  we are already letting in some international students etc 
However its perfect timing for the coming winter,  we got a few months so slowly ease the borders which we are doing.  Maybe nothing will happen but our coming winter will be a big test. 

Thumbs up for the gold tho


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## over9k (13 December 2020)

I suspect the next move(s) will be travel bubbles. Probably NZ first and then work out from there.


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## qldfrog (13 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I suspect the next move(s) will be travel bubbles. Probably NZ first and then work out from there.



NZ sure and?
Every other country has cases. China maybe? wouldn't it be ironic


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## over9k (13 December 2020)

*Normal backwardation* is when the futures price is below the expected future spot price. This is desirable for speculators who are net long in their positions: they want the futures price to increase. So, normal backwardation is when the futures prices are increasing.









						What's the Difference Between Contango and Normal Backwardation?
					

Learn about the futures curve, contango and backwardation, and what they mean for hedgers and speculators.




					www.investopedia.com
				




Oil's looking good.


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## qldfrog (13 December 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 116297
> 
> 
> 
> ...



shusss I was just entering 3 buy orders CVX, NRGU and XOM.Now with the rain pouring down outside, time to get back to my real game: systems..Got months of backlogs.Have all a great day


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## over9k (13 December 2020)

I keep saying (and showing the evidence) that quantitative trading can't be relied on in this environment frog. There's too much that simply can't be modelled. 

That's not to say there isn't going to be *some* help from it, but you've gotta do some good old fashioned detective work too. 




My next plays are to see the earnings report from fedex on the 16th and probably nuke my postal related holdings then - fdx, ups, & ip. The U.S usually sees a selloff in the last week of december too as people eat their losses this financial year so they can deduct them against their taxes. 

We have the curveball of the thanksgiving virus data out in the next couple of days too so there's plenty of curveballs yet.


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## qldfrog (13 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I keep saying (and showing the evidence) that quantitative trading can't be relied on in this environment frog. There's too much that simply can't be modelled.
> 
> That's not to say there isn't going to be *some* help from it, but you've gotta do some good old fashioned detective work too.
> 
> ...



I indeed expect lower market and my US looking systematic trading went bear this week.


----------



## over9k (13 December 2020)




----------



## sptrawler (14 December 2020)

The corona virus has had one dramatic effect, with people staying home savings rates are the highest in years.








						Secret truth behind recession
					

By now you know Australia is in recession.




					www.news.com.au
				



From the article:




Usually in a recession, there’s two types of people. Those who lose their jobs dip into their savings to cover cost of living. Meanwhile people who keep their jobs save more than usual. They do that because they are worried about the future – they could be next to lose their jobs, after all. Usually this second group is bigger, and so overall national saving goes up.

That’s bad news that makes recessions worse. The more we save the weaker the economy gets. They call this “the paradox of thrift”


If one person is thrifty and saves their money that’s great. But if we all do it, spending dries up, the economy gets weaker and we all suffer.

This time, on top of the usual paradox of thrift, we had lockdown and shutdown. That caused savings behaviour to go absolutely loopy. Some Australians are stuffing away thousands of dollars in every pay cycle. What else are you going to do with your income?

As the next graph shows, we saved an estimated 20 per cent of our income in the months of April, May and June this year. That is HUGE.


How did it get there? The answer is partly saved income, and also partly Centrelink. Centrelink payments are a big part of household income but they don’t count towards GDP. The P in GDP is for product, as in production. GDP counts income you get for work but not income transfers. And there has been a record amount of income transfers.

Billions has been spent on the JobSeeker supplement. Those transfers have done two things: First, helped stop spending from getting even worse. Second, some of that money has been saved, and will be spent in future.


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## Smurf1976 (14 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That’s bad news that makes recessions worse. The more we save the weaker the economy gets. They call this “the paradox of thrift”



Agreed that's true in the short term but it's a bit like running around the block.

Makes you feel pretty crap there and then but long term it's exactly what you need to be doing.

Much the same with save and invest versus spending the lot. Short term it causes a lot of pain but long term saving and investment is exactly what the economy needs so long as it goes into productive businesses not bidding up house prices.


----------



## over9k (14 December 2020)

NZ declares country free of virus, lifts all restrictions:









						New Zealand lifts all Covid restrictions, declaring the nation virus-free
					

PM Jacinda Ardern says she "did a little dance" as it was confirmed NZ had no active virus cases.



					www.bbc.com
				





And then offers travel bubble with australia:









						Australia welcomes 'first step' towards normality as New Zealand announces planned travel bubble
					

Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt says the Government is ready to work with New Zealand to allow free travel between the two countries.




					www.abc.net.au
				





Thanksgiving data is in and U.S hospitalisations hit a new peak but nothing like the madness we were expecting (which is good):




But markets couldn't care less because:




Result is everything into the green, r2k the best yet again:




with UPS & FDX screaming even pre-market as they have the contracts to transport the vaccines which are being stuffed into styrofoam boxes along with dry ice as we speak:













And oil & copper both still on a tear - copper's got a few weeks in it yet, oil has years:




More lockdowns are still inevitable though:





So in summary: More of the same virus data playing tug-of-war with recovery anticipation news. I guessed a flatline as of a week ago, everything's plus or minus about 1% since then (only the r2k is up) so we'll see. I suspect tomorrow will be quite red after today's exuberance as there's not going to be anything but bad news until the moderna vaccine in approved.

My next moves will be buying more oil etf's in the next dip and other than that I'm just waiting for the FDX earnings report on wednesday.


----------



## sptrawler (15 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed that's true in the short term but it's a bit like running around the block.
> 
> Makes you feel pretty crap there and then but long term it's exactly what you need to be doing.
> 
> Much the same with save and invest versus spending the lot. Short term it causes a lot of pain but long term saving and investment is exactly what the economy needs so long as it goes into productive businesses not bidding up house prices.



I think even the Government will have realised that horse has run its race, there is no future for Australia, by just inflating house prices to give people a perception of greater wealth so they will spend more on latte and dining out.
With China applying the brakes to Australian exports, Australian companies will have to go back to basics, chasing markets and value adding here.
It will mean most company directors will have to earn their keep, a bit of back to the future, it is about time they woke up to themselves way too many wet lunches and resting on their laurels IMO.









						'Where there's wool there's a way': Could an outback town's plan kickstart the industry again?
					

The proposed Blackall wool scour may have a $198 million bill attached to it, but it could save an industry under pressure due to China trade tensions.




					www.abc.net.au
				




From the article:
_Blackall in western Queensland has a population of fewer than 1,500 people, but the little town is positioning itself as the big solution to Australia's wool industry woes. 

The local council wants a new wool scour built to manage the entire wool handling process locally — from fleece to fabric — rather than sending it overseas.

It could provide a long-term fix to the problems posed by China's suspension on importations of a range of Australian commodities, including beef, barley, wine, and wool.

Australia is the world's largest greasy wool producer. According to the International Wool Textile Organisation it produced more than 368,000 tonnes, or 18 per cent of the world's wool, in 2019.


China is the world's largest wool importer, taking in 49 per cent of global greasy wool and 39 per cent of clean wool in 2018.

The mayor of Blackall-Tambo Regional Council, Andrew Martin, said trade tensions with China strengthened the merits for an end-to-end processing facility to be built locally.

"It's going to leave a whopping big hole in the wool market and the wool industry if China suddenly bans [importations] of wool from Australia," Cr Martin said.

A feasibility study into the viability of the facility was commissioned by the council and conducted by economic consultants AEC.

The report, released last month, showed the construction of the proposed $198 million facility would create 88 full-time jobs.

Once operational, 812 full-time employees would likely be required, including 270 locally, and it would generate $116.3 million in gross regional product per year.

AEC senior economist Jonathan Pavetto, who conducted the study, said the scour would "quite literally [double] the number of jobs in Blackall"._




Well let's be honest it isn't as though we haven't done it all before.


----------



## over9k (15 December 2020)

Still holding moderna.


----------



## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed that's true in the short term but it's a bit like running around the block.
> 
> Makes you feel pretty crap there and then but long term it's exactly what you need to be doing.
> 
> Much the same with save and invest versus spending the lot. Short term it causes a lot of pain but long term saving and investment is exactly what the economy needs so long as it goes into productive businesses not bidding up house prices.



Or stock market bubbles where the money just disappear in a week.
As for the savings going in banks, inflation official or not will take care of it, and if not, governments will get it directly.
When you are part of an official great Reset, savings are a suckers' game


----------



## over9k (15 December 2020)

Basically all companies which can work remotely etc are doing the same thing. There's a mass exodus of wealthy youtubers, goldman sachs are moving to florida, you name it people and companies are moving if they can.

Coronavirus has been a mass experiment in remote/distance working and it's clearly done very, very well.


----------



## over9k (15 December 2020)

Reference the spending/saving discussion: 

There's a lot of pent-up demand out there. Think what will happen to those savings once people can actually spend them on what they *really* want to.


----------



## over9k (15 December 2020)

Meanwhile:








Are the vaccine rollouts going to beat the virus spread? Not looking likely.

Recall the post I made showing how quickly zoom moved once the 3% positive test rate lockdowns came into effect


----------



## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 116377
> 
> View attachment 116380
> 
> ...



Oracle moving to Texas too..Funny how these liberal minded people and leaders leave the mess they created behind to move to these republican states, let's just hope they will not corrupt the lot of the US.
And while we focus on Covid , China is moving ahead.These ruthless leaders are so cunning/or the west so stupid:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wo...-indefinitely-by-beijing-20201214-p56ne7.html


----------



## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Reference the spending/saving discussion:
> 
> There's a lot of pent-up demand out there. Think what will happen to those savings once people can actually spend them on what they *really* want to.



Now a Oz focus entry, I know @over9k is more US focused.
Here, the question is what will they really want, and within which context? more bling? maybe not
With the China boom over for us, the average aussie might just want to be able to eat  or be confident he /she will next year.While we are focusing on a "relatively benign" virus, we are in the middle of an economic war never seen in the last 20y and being strangled.When the rest of the world will reopen, we will be left stranded and I somewhat doubt Bidden or his cohort will even raise a finger seeing us crushed
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wo...-indefinitely-by-beijing-20201214-p56ne7.html
To date: wine,coal, agricultural products: cereals and meat,(seafood I suspect as there is no reason for export to fall as demand is still there in China), are being banned by our main key exporting market
Maybe time to ship our latte and cappucino there?I have the feeling iron ore will be next, and as noted in this thread, China is making sure it has plenty of oil aside for its next move.
And I do believe this is definitively relevant in this thread


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## over9k (15 December 2020)

China is loving the fact that the west are virtue signaling their way to a self inflicted economic, political, and social controlled demolition, championed and led by our Silicon Valley elites, Gates, Dorsey, Bezos, Zuck and of course employed via the UN thugs led by Klaus and his ilk at the WEF.

China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power now under development, *more than the entire coal power capacity of the United States.* So when Xi says China will peak…what he is preparing us all for is a massive (they never stopped) and continued investment.

Our Chinese friends now have 97.8 GW of coal-fired power under construction, and another 151.8 GW at the planning stage. And so while some poor sap was penning Xi’s carefully crafted speech to the UN, Xi and his underlings were busy. Busy financing and building out what is likely to be the worlds most impressive global energy infrastructure.

Just this year plants accounting for some 17 GW began construction in China. To put this into context this is *more than the total amount approved during the previous two years*. But they are not only investing in their backyard. Nope… according to a Boston University database they have made more than $244 billion in energy investments abroad since 2000 with the bulk of that in recent years going into oil and gas.

(Yeah not wind, solar or renewable and recyclable Unicorn farts. Good ol O&G…)


A healthy $50 billion has gone toward *dirty old coal*!

They’ve done all of this, and will continue to do more, while paying lip service to “carbon emission reductions”. That our western leaders are as gullible as they are is a tragedy but simply ensures the west is going to end up being a source of houseboys for their Chinese overlords by the next decade. Watch!

The reason is simple and it’s one I’ve repeated more times than I care to count.

*No country has political security without energy security.*

And energy security is one thing that the liberal hand wringing “we’re all going to die in 12 years” crowd neither understand, nor care to understand.

That’s how religious-like ideologies work after all.

On the topic of securing political power globally consider this:

It is one thing to develop domestic energy, but that isn’t enough to rule the world. To rule it you need global capacity and leverage over other nations. This was always what the “belt and road” initiative was all about… a trojan horse. That discussion of the Belt and Road has faded from the MSM does not mean it isn’t being pursued. I assure you it continues.

A report in January found that more than one-quarter of coal plants under development outside China have some commitment or offer of funds from Chinese financial institutions. Imagine that.

Keep this in mind. China is the largest consumer of fossil fuels and over the last decade has become the largest financier of the fossil fuel industry.

Here, take a look:




As mentioned by the institute for energy.



> These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries. In total there are 1,600 new coal-fired plants planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.
> 
> https://www.instituteforenergyresea...ement-china-india-continue-build-coal-plants/



So expect to see China championing and cheering on the West, encouraging them to divest of fossil fuels, encouraging them to keep their economies locked down with Covid hysteria and encouraging the decimation of their economies, and the subsequent political and social mayhem being unleashed.

Why? because if you’re running a race and you’re not the fastest that doesn’t matter if your competition has swapped out their track shoes for concrete boots and iron shackles. Why wouldn’t you encourage them to keep it up…and with vigour.



https://capitalistexploits.at/how-china-is-capturing-global-energy-market-share/ 


Cliff notes:

It's all a bluff. They aren't even food secure. They import everything. Food, energy, oil, commodities, everything. The entire country is the world's step between raw good and finished product. They can't even feed themselves or keep their own lights on ffs.


----------



## over9k (15 December 2020)

U.S markets last night:


Defensive. Everyone should know what that means by now.

Tech & r2k up. Semiconductors back on the menu too. Everything else down. Energy slaughtered.


----------



## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> China is loving the fact that the west are virtue signaling their way to a self inflicted economic, political, and social controlled demolition, championed and led by our Silicon Valley elites, Gates, Dorsey, Bezos, Zuck and of course employed via the UN thugs led by Klaus and his ilk at the WEF.
> 
> China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power now under development, *more than the entire coal power capacity of the United States.* So when Xi says China will peak…what he is preparing us all for is a massive (they never stopped) and continued investment.
> 
> ...



can not agree more. 
As for the last "it's all bluff", if they import from africa or SE asia, and if the fish they eat come from a png flag sea factory consider it as good as domestic.


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## over9k (15 December 2020)

They're net importers of everything they *need*.


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## sptrawler (15 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Now a Oz focus entry, I know @over9k is more US focused.
> Here, the question is what will they really want, and within which context? more bling? maybe not



My guess is, there will be a lot more mums and dads getting into investment, this is the first time they have seen money injected like this and the market bounce has been amazing. It wont go un noticed IMO.


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## againsthegrain (15 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My guess is, there will be a lot more mums and dads getting into investment, this is the first time they have seen money injected like this and the market bounce has been amazing. It wont go un noticed IMO.




at the moment it feels like buy into any blue chip and the chances it will go up are much better then going down,  see how long can ride the wave


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## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My guess is, there will be a lot more mums and dads getting into investment, this is the first time they have seen money injected like this and the market bounce has been amazing. It wont go un noticed IMO.



nice recipe for disaster, and if a few learn about leverage..saw it all during GFC, not that far away..


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## sptrawler (15 December 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> at the moment it feels like buy into any blue chip and the chances it will go up are much better then going down,  see how long can ride the wave



That's what no one knows, but one thing for sure, with everyone staying home and no travel there will be a lot of money sloshing around in bank accounts looking for somewhere to go.
We live in weird times.
If like the wool scouring idea, councils, Government and industry, see this as an opportunity to build a manufacturing base and the transition to renewables continues, opportunity knocks IMO. 
This could be a phoenix event or the crash and burn event, but I definitely think it will be an event period, not more of the same as we have seen since the 1980's. So for a period of time there will be a lot of activity.
As frog said, it could end up a massive 1987 crash event, but with computerised modelling and data handling, the banks should be able to better handle risk, which is quite funny because that is exactly what they have been told to do by APRA, coincidence?

But it is just my opinion.


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## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

sptrawler said:


> That's what no one knows, but one thing for sure, with everyone staying home and no travel there will be a lot of money sloshing around in bank accounts looking for somewhere to go.
> We live in weird times.
> If like the wool scouring idea, councils, Government and industry, see this as an opportunity to build a manufacturing base and the transition to renewables continues, opportunity knocks IMO. This could be a phoenix event or the crash and burn event, but I definitely think it will be an event period, not more of the same as we have seen since the 1980's. So for a period of time there will be a lot of activity.
> But it is just my opinion.



I think in 15y time, it will be called the renewable crash....dot com crash did not mean the end of the internet, and this will not see the end of EV or solar but the irrational exuberance will go in flame, zoom tesla..billions will go in smoke..go oil


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## Smurf1976 (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> There's a lot of pent-up demand out there. Think what will happen to those savings once people can actually spend them on what they *really* want to.



Thinking of the population overall and how I perceive it, not necessarily me personally, that means we should be investing in things related to:

International travel 

Concerts 

Major sports codes

Nightlife in all forms - restaurants, pubs, nightclubs and what is politely termed the "adult services industry"

Breweries might be another one. Early in the pandemic tanker loads (think petrol tankers in that context) of surplus beer were hauled away from breweries to be disposed of. At least some of it literally ended up being used to produce gas with that then used to generate electricity, that being the only way to get any value from it at all albeit not much.


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 December 2020)

Ask the virus.

gg


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## over9k (15 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Thinking of the population overall and how I perceive it, not necessarily me personally, that means we should be investing in things related to:
> 
> International travel
> 
> ...



Here in AU it's international travel. It's life as normal otherwise. 

Someone else said to ask the virus... Well, there isn't one here.


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## Smurf1976 (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Here in AU it's international travel. It's life as normal otherwise.



I'll have to disagree that things are back to normal.

There's plenty of New Year's Eve events not happening this year as just one example and likewise basically no such thing as major concert tours and so on at present.

It might be possible to organise such things now, although in the case of concerts by international artists that does presume a resumption of travel without quarantine and the ability to guarantee dates, but there's still a substantial gap between now and when "normal" actually returns in practice.

Personally I'd say "the rebuilding has commenced" but thus far it's still just a hole in the ground, it'll be a while before the building's up.


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## over9k (15 December 2020)

Are there any AU bands that actually tour though? 

I'm not aware of any restrictions really effecting much, restaurants are open, you can go to work, the beach, take the kids anywhere, state borders are open etc etc? 

As far as I know the only things still banned are really big crowds like at stadiums or conventions?


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## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> They're net importers of everything they *need*.



the imports are coming from places they control more and more, see africa for minerals and food, SE Asia via the belt road for even lower tech manufacturing, this is the new USA,  if they need oil, they will control the producing countries etc


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## sptrawler (15 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> the imports are coming from places they control more and more, see africa for minerals and food, SE Asia via the belt road for even lower tech manufacturing, this is the new USA,  if they need oil, they will control the producing countries etc











						'We should be absolutely alarmed': China prepares to move into the Torres Strait
					

China's plan to build a fish processing facility in the Torres Strait has raised concerns over border security and impacts to commercial fishing.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
Community leaders in North Queensland fear China's plan to build a fish processing facility on their doorstep will jeopardise border security and the commercial fishing sector.
China's Ministry of Commerce has announced that Fujian Zhonghong Fishery Company has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Papua New Guinea Government to build a $204 million "comprehensive multi-functional fishery industrial park" on the island of Daru under its Belt and Road Initiative.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 December 2020)

As more countries in the West authorise the vaccine, "the difference between people in rich countries getting vaccinated and the lack of any vaccines for the developing world will become quite stark,” said Anna Marriott, health policy manager at Oxfam. “And it will only prolong the pandemic.” 

_well, ain't that a shame_


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## over9k (15 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> the imports are coming from places they control more and more, see africa for minerals and food, SE Asia via the belt road for even lower tech manufacturing, this is the new USA,  if they need oil, they will control the producing countries etc



Sure, but they've got to get them _to _china afterwards.





Any one of those straits could be shut within a few hours if the right people wanted them shut. Then you either have to get everything across land somehow (news flash, much of which isn't possible) or go the loooooong way around through PNG and the marianas and then still have to make your way past japan & taiwan. Every country of which you need to make it past, hates you. And that's assuming you even get your stuff that far and the indians or arabs or whomever don't get it before it even gets through the indian ocean. Who also all hate you.


And that's before we talk about the demographic implosion that china is currently undergoing:






Or before realising that they're actually broke. You think the west's debt is bad with the americans at 100% of gdp?








Despite all the bluster, china is in its death throes.


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## qldfrog (15 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Sure, but they've got to get them _to _china afterwards.
> 
> 
> View attachment 116401
> ...



They get all the energy they need from russia: gas and oil, and for coal mostly China own Mongolia..an annexed territory..and for the rest indonesia and Africa
Sure the demographic implosion.but you do not need more people...all these cries about japan coming from european loosing their country to immigration...
As for the debt: who caresat least with their fake yuans, they buy farmlands mines RE all over the world instead of inflating wall street salaries
have a step back, visit NY then SZ and there is no doubt on who is winning..that was even before the covid19
Covid is adding self destruction and ensuring the west is collapsing earlier, so de facto removing the demographic issue...
An economic consequence, one of many, of covid19


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## over9k (16 December 2020)

They're net importers of almost everything frog. Energy, oil, coal, iron ore, food, everything. What do you think cutting off the oil supply from the persian gulf will do to them? 

Which, by the way, is GOING to happen when the saudi's & iranians start shooting at each other, which both sides are preparing to do right now. Even ignoring that, then you have to get it past india, pakistan etc. Then you have to get it through the straits. Then you have to get it past japan. See what I'm saying? 

And news flash, all the other stuff they import like coal, iron ore, wheat etc etc all has to travel the oceans as well. All of which could be shut off in a matter of hours. 


You also do need more people if you're completely underwater in debt, which they are.


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## Smurf1976 (16 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I'm not aware of any restrictions really effecting much, restaurants are open, you can go to work, the beach, take the kids anywhere, state borders are open etc etc?



You can but in terms of people spending that money they're piling up, the big one is tourism (international) and another significant one is major events, nightlife and so on. They're not the only things obviously but they're significant and still either shut or at least restricted. 

In terms of concerts well for major acts, which I'm defining as simply those able to draw a large crowd, there are things being planned and there are tickets on sale but any actual concert is still a way off. Guns N' Roses tickets are reported to be selling well - but the show's still 11 months away.

Overall though there simply isn't a lot happening in terms of live music. It's one area where I'd say no, we clearly aren't anywhere close to "normal" at this point. Promoters can organise events but really there's a lot of goodwill and hope involved and a fair chance that a show doesn't end up going ahead despite being sold.

Until it happens though, that's an industry that isn't back to normal and one that a significant number of people would be happy to see operating again and spend some money on.

Smaller music events and things like nightclubs it's a similar story. Can open but social distancing ruins the economics to a point where it works only if everyone takes the hit. Some will, some won't, some have already gone broke.


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## Smurf1976 (16 December 2020)

One sector which seems to be doing well is rubbish:



> 20 per cent increase in household rubbish












						Australians urged to ditch rubbish habits picked up in lockdown
					

A surge in home-delivered food and online shopping during COVID-19 lockdowns has generated an alarming 20 per cent increase in household rubbish.




					www.theage.com.au
				




The same article also notes this " About one-third of surveyed Victorians told researchers they intended to use their cars more in future".

For those with a longer term view, there's a lot of businesses which in some way benefit from greater use of cars. Fuel, dealerships, road construction contractors and so on. If the shift away from public transport becomes permanent then we'll in due course end up with more road infrastructure almost certainly.


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## over9k (16 December 2020)

Cars aren't going away. People are moving OUT of the cities.


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## qldfrog (16 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Cars aren't going away. People are moving OUT of the cities.



world oil consumption next year will be above 2019, this is my bet and I do not think it is a risky one


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## Dona Ferentes (16 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> You can but in terms of people spending that money they're piling up, the big one is tourism (international) and another significant one is major events, nightlife and so on. They're not the only things obviously but they're significant and still either shut or at least restricted.
> 
> In terms of concerts well for major acts, which I'm defining as simply those able to draw a large crowd, there are things being planned and there are tickets on sale but any actual concert is still a way off. Guns N' Roses tickets are reported to be selling well - but the show's still 11 months away.
> 
> ...



Wiggles touring in April.








						The Fruit Salad TV Big Show! — The Wiggles
					






					www.thewiggles.com.au
				




Locked in.
Herd immunity.


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 December 2020)

As we are in the midst of a chaotic system developing, "the pandemic" : "the virus", linear projections as most posters have posited are useless. 

Chaos reigns atm. 

Live with it. 

Economic linear predictions are no longer of use. 

One of the barflys at the Ross Island Hotel suggests a read of the ATM Study which he says is so time consuming he turned to drink.

gg


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## over9k (16 December 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As we are in the midst of a chaotic system developing, "the pandemic" : "the virus", linear projections as most posters have posited are useless.
> 
> Chaos reigns atm.
> 
> ...



Absolutely correct. Hence why I've posted all the stuff showing how the hedge funds & quant traders have been absolutely pasted by us retail trading plebs (or not even kept up with the market).

There's still some space for technical analysis, but in this market it's supplementary, not primary.


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## qldfrog (16 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Absolutely correct. Hence why I've posted all the stuff showing how the hedge funds & quant traders have been absolutely pasted by us retail trading plebs (or not even kept up with the market).
> 
> There's still some space for technical analysis, but in this market it's supplementary, not primary.



when the lemmings are numerous enough, they flood and submerge everything and carry around even the wisers


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

Hill leaders nearing long-sought stimulus deal
					

They're moving quickly, with hopes of passing a sweeping relief package by week's end.




					www.politico.com
				





versus:  






Optimism seems to be winning the tug-of-war... for now.


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## sptrawler (17 December 2020)

More pump priming, you have to love it, but at the end of the day only those businesses that actually produce something will survive IMO.
Charting is really becoming a must have skillset, with investing IMO.
It is becoming a weird world, money is becoming meaningless, just keep printing it to keep the good times rolling.
When does the piper arrive?
It really does make you wonder, how much money your house or your investments, really are worth.


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

Futures nosedived on the news. Obviously already being used as "this is why we need stimulus" stick to whack the politicians with.


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

AU budget not as bad as expected:


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

Choppy day. Light volume. The market liked what powell had to say. Bit of a snoozefest.




Still waiting on stimulus deal:


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

Fedex reports earnings tomorrow.


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

The International Labour Organisation has just released its full report on the virus's impact on the asia-pacific and, well, it's pretty difficult to get your head around the scale of it all:


_"The crisis has resulted in an estimated loss of* 81 million jobs in 2020* over pre-crisis trends and an *additional 22 million to 25 million employed persons pushed into the realm of extreme poverty, living with expenditure of less than $1.90 per person per day*... The COVID-19 impact on the labour market was felt first and foremost through the reduction in working hours induced by national lockdown and containment measures. The Asia–Pacific region was the first to feel the sting of the virus in early 2020, and some countries reacted quickly with strict lockdown protocols to prevent further contagion. In the first quarter of 2020, total working hours across the region were already 7.3 per cent below the hours spent on work in the last quarter of 2019 (ILO 2020a). The loss of working hours in the first quarter was equivalent to a loss of *125 million full-time equivalent jobs* (based on a 48-hour work week). Results for the second quarter were significantly worse, with working hours in Asia and the Pacific estimated to have decreased by 15.2 per cent from fourth quarter 2019, which translates to a loss of *265 million fulltime equivalent jobs*. The largest loss in working hours across the world is estimated to have occurred in South Asia (with a decline of 27.3 per cent in the second quarter, equivalent to 170 million full-time jobs).".  _









_"The results in figure 5 reveal Macau (China) and the Maldives, which are heavily dependent on tourism, as having the largest downward revisions of economic growth, with their economies expected to shrink by 52 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, in 2020. Among the economies in the Pacific Islands subregion, Fiji and Vanuatu are projected to shrink the most, with a stark downward revision from the solid positive economic growth rates expected before the crisis. Within South-East Asia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand were among the hardest:"_


In short, the more exposed to (reliant on) tourism they are, the more they've been hit. Or in this case, annihilated. Depressing, but not surprising.


However, trade between countries is still waaaaaay down, so the manufacturing-based ones have still been hit hard:




And here's a bit of data comparing now to the GFC & asian financial crises:




Dunno if there's any young lads reading this but that should at least give you an idea of how bad things were in the GFC, with many industries like tourism being smashed in the exact same way as recessions bring us back to the classic econ 101 fundamentals of inferior vs superior goods. Superior goods that we buy when we're flush with cash (like holidaying) are always the first to go when money gets tight and now is no exception.

And to get more granular, here's the data for the percentage reduction (so the figure represents the percentage of jobs _lost_) of each of the worst hit sectors/occupations, all of which is probably exactly what your gut has already told you:




You can read the full 94 page report here: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/p...bangkok/documents/publication/wcms_764084.pdf

If there's one positive note to all of this it is that Q3 was waaaay better than Q2, so we appear to be on the path to recovery. I'll obviously update & compare with the Q4 data once we have it.


The IMF has forecasted the full year as follows:




AU looks to have come somewhere in the middle - hasn't fared great (no tourists or foreign students), but done OK (still selling rocks by the zillion).


----------



## over9k (17 December 2020)

Meanwhile:





Some pretty hardcore shutdowns are now a virtual certainty.


----------



## over9k (17 December 2020)

Oh here are how asia's markets have all fared over the past year which I forgot to add to the previous post and can't edit now:


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## over9k (17 December 2020)

MYEFO out today.

Cliff notes:






But:





I showed in one of my previous posts that jobkeeper has "only" ended up costing 90 billion vs the 100 billion forecast so AU's doing quite a bit better than expected.


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## qldfrog (17 December 2020)

Ok, now we are seeing a start of a resurgence in nsw: weather related but lockdown will not be politically possible until early jan, so this will set the widespread base for the autumn fire, vaccine lol ...or not
Question is have we learnt about the OS experience.
Considering we still see ads asking you to reduce drinking, but noone recommending vitamin D/zinc for our elderly ..I doubt it
So we are going to be hammered, where does that fit ASX wise?


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## Smurf1976 (17 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> So we are going to be hammered, where does that fit ASX wise?



We're in a very strange world where entire industries have shut down for an extended period, international borders have been shut and in some cases even cities have had a border placed around them, everything from kindergartens to funerals have been thrown into chaos, there's been an actual stock market crash (remember that) and yet the financial markets are showing incredible optimism.

There's no rational sense to it other than "Don't fight the Fed" or in our case the RBA.


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## over9k (18 December 2020)

0% interest rates have a lot to do with it.


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## over9k (18 December 2020)

Because what the f**k else is there to do on lockdown?


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## qldfrog (18 December 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 116551
> 
> 
> Because what the f**k else is there to do on lockdown?



Was inevitable:
https://www.france24.com/en/20200408-virus-may-spark-devastating-global-condom-shortage
And more seriously,in a plague situation, you may have sex but no babies.
Here,covid is not a risk to mum baby and at home cashed up,why not...
A good thing GDP wise...


----------



## over9k (18 December 2020)

A story in six parts:
















I just can't figure out how these things are connected.


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## over9k (18 December 2020)

Meanwhile, fedex beats estimates by 20% and still falls on earnings:




The same thing happened with zoom even though its earnings were way above estimates, which gives you an idea of both how little attention the market is paying to analysts and what kind of expectations are being priced in at the moment.

Stocks seem to drop if they don't beat estimates by about 50% or so. Which means that the market is actually estimating things to be a good third or so higher than what the analysts are.

So either the analysts are way out of touch, or the market is.



Considering that earnings keep getting reported way above estimates and the stocks are still dropping, it would appear the actual answer is somewhere in between the two


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## over9k (18 December 2020)

Final step before actual signoff/approval for deployment, which is the final thing needed to remove any doubt of a bull market from here on out.


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## over9k (18 December 2020)

Meanwhile, china's apparently ordered a whole mountain of copper:







The reason(s) why are unclear but I suspect it's probably for the same reason as all the oil they ordered - concern about future supply/to basically just stockpile it.


----------



## sptrawler (18 December 2020)

An interesting way of presenting statistics.








						The rich, the comfortable middle and the rest: Australia’s wealth and income ladder revealed
					

New research compares the upper, middle and lower rungs of wealth and income.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
_The richest tenth of households owns almost half Australia’s private wealth followed by a “comfortable middle" of 30 per cent with 38 per cent, leaving the lowest 60 per cent - who tend to be younger – with 16 per cent of household wealth_.

If you think that is hard, talking fractions, then percentages to throw the formula, try the bar graph which wont print.
But here are the percentages given.

What a hoot:
_Highest 5% -                       $524k
Highest 20%-                      $298k
Second highest 20%-        $159K
middle 20%-                       $116K
Second lowest 20%-          $79K
Lowest 20%-                       $41K
Lowest 5%-                         $23K


The bottom 60 per cent of Australian households had average wealth of $277,000, with owner-occupied housing and superannuation the biggest assets.

The average wealth in households with a reference person aged 65 years and over was $1.38 million - 1.5 times that of younger age groups (with an average of $904,000).

Income is more equally distributed than wealth. The best-paid 20 per cent of households had an average pre-tax income of just under $300,000 a year, the middle 20 per cent $116,000, and the bottom 20 per cent $41,000_.

I don't know what it is meant to say, other than no one is worse off than $23k a year and the majority fall somewhere between $50k and $200K.
But if Joe average tried to read it, they would probably just add up the percentages and go, what a dick.
Obviously Christmas is affecting everyone. lol
They really do need to do a better job of explaining things IMO.


----------



## over9k (18 December 2020)

I suspect the whole point is to make joe average outraged - outrage gets clicks. 

There's a little metric called the gini coefficient for measuring this stuff


----------



## sptrawler (18 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I suspect the whole point is to make joe average outraged - outrage gets clicks.
> 
> There's a little metric called the gini coefficient for measuring this stuff



I think Joe average is over the BS.


----------



## over9k (19 December 2020)

More semiconductor absurdity:


----------



## over9k (19 December 2020)

The day:






Moderna still not approved, stimulus still not approved. Both are as close to being approved as possible whilst not actually being approved. Hospitalisations increasing at about 1000 people a day.



The week:




Fangs first, r2k second, nasdaq third, sp500 fourth, dow fifth. All ended in the green, fangs & r2k best & 2nd best. Barbell spread still the overwhelmingly best play with each end being highest & 2nd highest of the major indices.


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## over9k (19 December 2020)

Time to buy a big bank etf.


----------



## qldfrog (19 December 2020)

The move back to banks, big oil, probably big retailers etc.
Numbers do not count, and covid response was a perfect example: only the story matters.


----------



## over9k (19 December 2020)

FINALLY


----------



## noirua (19 December 2020)

Hopefully, this new strain of coronavirus seen by some as a new super-strain won't reach and damage the economy of Australia as it is starting to do in England.  Seems to have been found in the county of Kent in the southeast. Probably best to ban all persons from the UK from leaving for Australia.

Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain (msn.com)
Boris Johnson summoned ministers for an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss how to tackle mounting concerns about the new strain of coronavirus identified in parts of south-east England.

Huge scientific effort underway to find out if the new Covid variant is behind the surge in cases in England








						Huge scientific effort underway to find out if the new Covid variant is behind surge in cases
					

Sage members working through Christmas to see if the new strain of coronavirus is more dangerous after links to surges in hospital admissions




					inews.co.uk


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## qldfrog (20 December 2020)

noirua said:


> Hopefully, this new strain of coronavirus seen by some as a new super-strain won't reach and damage the economy of Australia as it is starting to do in England.  Seems to have been found in the county of Kent in the southeast. Probably best to ban all persons from the UK from leaving for Australia.
> 
> Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain (msn.com)
> Boris Johnson summoned ministers for an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss how to tackle mounting concerns about the new strain of coronavirus identified in parts of south-east England.
> ...



the normal evolution of viruses is to become more widespread but less dangerous, until they reach very widespread presence. I believe what we see is the standard expected behaviour.There are also great chances that mutation means vaccine will not work, as per flu strain etc
But all good, now it has been decided  we have a vaccine-> instead of below 1% fatalities without, we will have a below 1pc vaccine failure rate which will be deemed very good;

Sooner or later, reality will have to be faced, by will or by force with a collapsed economy but it will be far too late to get out of this mess without lasting damages.
We had it all..For me,  the real issue now is how can I save some


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## over9k (20 December 2020)

Well the good thing with both the pfizer and the moderna vaccines is that they're both mRNA type, which (and I'm not an immunologist) means that they're apparently very easy to "tweak" in response to virus mutations, typically only taking a few weeks to do so. 

I'm sure that the scientific term contains far more syllables/is far more intelligent sounding than "tweak", but that was the layman's term the article I read used to describe the process.


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## Smurf1976 (20 December 2020)

over9k said:


> The reason(s) why are unclear but I suspect it's probably for the same reason as all the oil they ordered - concern about future supply/to basically just stockpile it.



I expect China's thoughts are much the same as the ones I have but haven't thus far been able to prove or disprove.

The basic idea that production capacity is lower now than it was a year ago and that once demand recovers, we'll run into a situation where the limits are approached and every major producer finds themselves able to set price.

Referring to oil and looking at EIA (US Govt) data (available at eia.gov)

2019 Non-OPEC production = 65.98 mmbpd
2020 Non-OPEC production = 63.67 mmbpd

2019 OPEC production = 34.63 mmbpd
2020 OPEC production = 29.27 mmbpd

2019 OPEC surplus capacity = 2.52 mmbpd
2020 OPEC surplus capacity = 6.15 mmbpd

So adding that up:

Non-OPEC actual production is down 2.31 mmbpd but capacity change is unknown

OPEC *capacity* is down by 1.73 mmbpd.

2019 world consumption = 101.23 mmbpd
2020 world consumption = 92.38 mmbpd

If China or anyone else wants to physically stockpile oil, now's a good time to do it before there's any major rebound in consumption.


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## over9k (20 December 2020)

American oil supply is a non-subject. Like I said, they're actually now net _exporters _of oil.





The problem china et al have is actually physically getting the stuff from the gulf:




But to tie this in to economic implications, a crash in oil demand obviously sends an oil-selling-dependent country absolutely broke:




And so makes them _very _keen to get selling.

In the case of saudi arabia (and others) they have massive sovereign wealth funds precisely for rainy days like this, but several other oil exporters don't, so they can't just leave the taps off and live off savings, hence why iraq and some others are upping production now even though the consensus of the OPEC meeting a week ago was to not do so - they haven't got a choice as they _need _the income _now: 




"Iraq devalued its currency by about 20% against the dollar, the biggest cut on record, as the cash-strapped government faces an economic crisis brought about by low oil prices and crude-production cuts"._

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/onwe...ncy-by-record-against-dollar-as-economy-wilts
Copyright © BloombergQuint

*"Cash-strapped iraq seeks $2 billion upfront payment for oil" *

_Iraq is seeking an upfront payment of about $2 billion in exchange for a long-term crude-supply contract, the latest sign of Baghdad’s growing desperation for cash as its economy unravels... In a letter to oil companies seen by Bloomberg News, the Iraqi government sought to mitigate its dire financial position by proposing a five-year supply contract delivering 4 million barrels a month, or about 130,000 barrels a day. The buyer would pay upfront for one year of supply, which at current prices would bring in just above $2 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations... 

“They need the money,” said Ahmed Mehdi, an expert on the Iraqi petroleum industry at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “On a monthly basis, the government is short around $3.5 billion to pay for salaries, imports, pensions and debts.”

Iraq’s monthly revenue has shriveled to roughly $4 billion this year, barely half what it was in 2019._





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				





So yeah, a buyer's market (from iraq at least) at the moment for sure. And I think it's pretty obvious who the buyer is, isn't it?


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## Smurf1976 (21 December 2020)

over9k said:


> American oil supply is a non-subject. Like I said, they're actually now net _exporters _of oil.



At the moment true although the US government's forecasts don't expect the situation to persist.

Selected data as follows for 2020:
Crude oil net imports = 2.75 mmbpd
Product net imports = -3.36 mmpbd
So a *net export of 0.61 mmbpd*

Forecast for 2021:
Crude oil net imports = 4.12 mmbpd
Product net imports = -3.37 mmbpd
So a* net import of 0.75 mmbpd*

Not a major level of import but a net importer nonetheless is what they're forecasting.

On the US domestic production side, for 2019, 2020, 2021 (all figures in million barrels per day):
US Domestic crude oil production: 12.25, 11.34, 11.10
Refinery processing gain = 1.07, 0.95, 1.07
Natural gas plant liquids = 4.82, 5.10, 5.27
*Renewables and oxygenates* = 1.12, 0.99, 1.08

So basically crude oil is trending down, natural gas liquids (condensate and LPG) is trending up on the domestic production side.

A particular complication with all US petroleum supply and consumption data is the US practice of including things which aren't oil, namely biofuels. My point there isn't to argue for or against the use of biofuels but simply that they are not oil. So if the aim is to count only actual oil then you need to take the biofuels out of the figures.

The original full data I'm quoting from is here: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=9

PS - In case anyone's wondering what "refinery processing gain" is, the short answer is that the density of petroleum products coming out of the refinery is, as a whole, lower than the density of the crude oil going in. So 1 barrel of crude oil yields more than 1 barrel of products. No laws of physics are being broken there, mass hasn't increased and nor has energy content, just lower density and thus greater volume brought about by some clever chemistry and the use of catalysts. Hence volume gain in processing needs to be counted in order to make the figures add up.


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## over9k (21 December 2020)

I'm not counting on them becoming importers again. Between the gulf of mexico, the canadian oil sands (which can only sell into canada and the U.S market due to simple economics) and fracking tech progress...


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## over9k (21 December 2020)




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## over9k (21 December 2020)

"Mutant" strain of the virus (lol) discovered in the U.K, hence the lockdowns and the markets all shitting themselves. All of europe's been massacred. Zoom's about the only thing into the green (and it's WELL into the green) premarket. Glad I held onto it. Also glad I kept some cash as it's time to deploy some cash as the moderna vaccine is going to be rolled out very soon.

Both the moderna & pfizer vaccines are the mRNA type that we were talking about earlier that can be easily modified/tweaked/whatever it's called to work on mutations of the virus too so it's not like we have to start the whole vaccine process again.


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## over9k (21 December 2020)

Here's how quick the reaction was, this is just sp500 futures and everything's followed the same trajectory so there's no need to post 10 graphs all showing the same thing:



And the talking heads are already saying to buy the dip:



I might sell zoom and buy the dip today. My zoom position's been my hedge against something like this happening. I can't see the "mutated" virus making it anywhere else as the U.K is an island and everyone's borders have been closed to them basically immediately. Flights are all grounded etc etc.

Related to all of this:


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## qldfrog (21 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Here's how quick the reaction was, this is just sp500 futures and everything's followed the same trajectory so there's no need to post 10 graphs all showing the same thing:
> 
> View attachment 116891
> 
> ...



The virus has been mutating from the start, there are now many strains, nothing new, and with age will necome more widesoread, more contagious and even less deadly than it is..a cold ultimately...
So i doubt this would be a real cause for a down day


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## over9k (21 December 2020)

It's the lockdowns etc that cause down days, hence why when the americans stopped using case numbers and instead started using hospitalistion numbers to dicktate lockdown policy I started posting the hospitalisation numbers rather than the virus numbers. 

So far, we have london in tier 4 lockdown (which is a big one), all the flights out of the U.K grounded, basically all of europe has closed its borders to the U.K, and most of europe was already in a pretty decent lockdown as it is.


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## over9k (22 December 2020)

Ugh. Dicktate. 

Dictate. It's dictate. And I can't edit the post now.


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## over9k (22 December 2020)




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## over9k (22 December 2020)

There you go. Told you the whole thing was a storm in a teacup. R2k futures were down nearly 4% at one point and then ended flat. 

Stimulus is actually passed now too:




Back to normality tomorrow.


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## over9k (22 December 2020)

Trump's already said he'd sign it if it passed so the months-overdue package is now FINALLY on the way.


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## over9k (23 December 2020)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variant-idUSKBN28W1M8

_Drug makers including BioNTech and Moderna are scrambling to test their COVID-19 vaccines against the new fast-spreading variant of the virus that is raging in Britain, the latest challenge in the breakneck race to curb the pandemic. _

Moderna & pfizer can both mod theirs relatively easily apparently.


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## over9k (23 December 2020)

Real estate.

Offices:



Apartments:


Projections:


And debt riding on all of this:



_"That damage has the potential to ripple far beyond building owners and their tenants. Commercial property underpins the tax base in many cities across the U.S., and a downturn could pummel local budgets".





"Unlike the last property market downturn, which was caused by excesses and exuberance in the financial markets, Covid-19 has upset real estate fundamentals by changing how we lead our lives.

Travel will be slow to come back, leaving millions of hotel rooms empty. Companies are already deciding they’ll need less office space than before, either because of staff cutbacks or because more of their employees will permanently work from home. And the rise of e-commerce—along with small business closures—will create a glut of retail space in a country that already had too much of it.

By one measure, about a billion hotel room nights will go unsold this year. Foot traffic on Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, plunged more than 70% at shopping malls as consumers bought Christmas gifts online, according to S&P Global. More than 100,000 restaurants are closed permanently or long-term"._


Read the whole piece at https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/...ocialflow-facebook-business&utm_medium=social



All I can say is that I think some of these projections are pretty bloody optimistic and moreover, are based on a pure guess of pent up demand vs human fear, neither of which anybody has the slightest clue how to quantify.

*Quantitative projections of qualitative factors aren't worth the paper they're printed on. *


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## qldfrog (23 December 2020)

over9k said:


> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variant-idUSKBN28W1M8
> 
> _Drug makers including BioNTech and Moderna are scrambling to test their COVID-19 vaccines against the new fast-spreading variant of the virus that is raging in Britain, the latest challenge in the breakneck race to curb the pandemic. _
> 
> Moderna & pfizer can both mod theirs relatively easily apparently.



Even if they can, who is going to be vaccinated every 3 months for an hypothetical risk (90pc of people), not to mention the production and logistical nightmare of a vaccine which may not even work better than simple exposure.i did not use fake vaccine so the gestapo should leave us alone.
Sooner or later, the narrative will need to deflate, we can not push facts away forever, and then i thought what about QE since 2008..so maybe it is possible to live in a virtual made world, maybe Tesla is by far the biggest car maker, and biden won by a landslide, and taxing my fossil fuels usage will reduce chinese smokestacks.
It will be hard mentally but should we not play the market like headless chooks, jump on any trend like a maniac.be it BTC, zoom and EV,basically invest like a Kim k fan.
VERY very seriously,
is there a fund somewhere trying that: a kind of follow the trendie fund.
I am NOT kidding.
this is a serious question, just data analysis on twitter FB, headlines, find keywords and so detect ipo going that way?
Think about it...


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## over9k (23 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Ok now for semiconductors, because we got some economic data that explains what's going on there.
> 
> I've mentioned quite a few times how semiconductors have just pulled and pulled and pulled and pulled through this pandemic, even on vaccine announcements, and I should hope the reason why would be pretty obvious: People stuck at home buying all kinds of electronic goods to keep themselves occupied: TV's, computers, thermomixes, playstations, so on and so forth.
> 
> ...




Update to this post:


Container shipping, the backbone of the global trading system, is showing signs of fatigue as the pandemic descends into its darkest days.

Carriers reaping the biggest profits in at least a decade are struggling to operate reliably as bottlenecks worsen around ports from southern England to Shanghai, contorting supply chains for everything from car parts to cosmetics and medical equipment.

Just 50.1% of container vessels arrived on time in November, down from 80% a year earlier and the lowest level in records dating back to 2011, according to a service reliability index compiled by Copenhagen-based Sea-Intelligence. From Asia to North America, on-time arrivals dropped below 30%, less than half the long-run average globally.

Spot rates to transport goods, which typically fade in the final weeks of the year, are still soaring despite the service disruptions. The rate to ship a container of goods from China to Europe jumped 17% last week, tripling from a year ago to more than $4,400.

The problem has gotten so bad that the U.S federal maritime commission is now investigating practices in the country's biggest ports: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...atchdog-to-probe-bottlenecks-at-biggest-ports





October’s result was the port’s third record this year. Imports rose 19.4% compared to October 2019, while exports were down 12.9%. Empty containers headed back overseas jumped 31.8% and also reached a record:




As you can see, there's never been such a large divergence between inbound & outbound and the U.S trade deficit data reflect it (which is obviously superfluous to this post to make its point).

The reason why this is a concern is because the number of empty containers being sent back to asia to pick up more stuff has caused an absolutely chronic container shortage for america's _food exports:_




That's right, you can make more money sending an_ empty_ container across the pacific to pick up all the electronic gadgets etc that americans are buying than you can sending one full of _food _down to south america.



In other words, this insatiable demand for gadgets from china combined with the unprecedented trade imbalance it has caused has actually started to seriously effect the world's ability to transport its *food supply. *

In case you hadn't already guessed the result, here's the data: 


Soybeans:



Corn:



Oats:



Wheat:




I could go on, but you get the point.


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## frugal.rock (23 December 2020)

over9k said:


> The really depressing part is that the U.S's debt is actually pretty good compared to most of the first world.



Not something to be forgotten. 
When that can that gets kicked falls into the drain, it's going to make the GFC look pretty.
Just another warning bell, carry on.
As you were.


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## over9k (23 December 2020)

The thing is the americans have the world's reserve currency, which puts them in an absolutely _unique _position in this aspect. They really can just print the daylights out of it and be basically fine because there's just _so _much USD floating around the world that it becomes a minimal difference to the overall money supply, even if it's a large chunk of U.S GDP. 

This is in stark contrast to literally everyone else however, unless you count the euro (whose days are numbered anyway).


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## over9k (23 December 2020)

Meanwhile, after all the carryon about the "mutant" virus strain yesterday, things are totally back to their previous trend:




Despite hospitalisations being on the up again:


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## rederob (23 December 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Not something to be forgotten.
> When that can that gets kicked falls into the drain, it's going to make the GFC look pretty.
> Just another warning bell, carry on.
> As you were.



The USA, with about 5% of the world's population, ranked 12th in debt to GDP in 2018:



Biden will add to this week's stimulus package once inaugurated next month, and clearly has plans to reshape US direction on energy and climate.  So, with additional debt and this year's negative GDP its predicament going forward is not rosy.  
I expect the Goldilocks effect of the US emergency vaccine use to have worn off by the end of the first quarter, and will not be surprised to see US markets in exceptionally poor shape by end-2021.  They currently seem to be running on irrational exuberance when placed alongside what is physically occurring.


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## qldfrog (23 December 2020)

over9k said:


> Meanwhile, after all the carryon about the "mutant" virus strain yesterday, things are totally back to their previous trend:
> 
> View attachment 116978
> 
> ...



yes more BS and lockdown fully demonstrated to not being of any help, etc; but look here...

One area we discussed earlier and with plenty of data from @over9k was the move out of cities..
Look who is talking ?Qldfrog left Brisbane hinterland for the greener grasses of the Noosa hinterland 3 month ago, and something planned a year earlier
Another articel about that and the role of Covid as the last straw:https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/530040-is-this-the-end-of-cities-in-america?bsft_eid=7aab17a8-5bbd-4767-962e-8038264ea030&bsft_aaid=6cecc182-bc17-40ae-993a-af857640c9d5&utm_campaign=rsi20201118&utm_source=blueshift&utm_medium=email&utm_content=rsi20201223&bsft_clkid=c5cf33b1-e017-4a7f-8125-db033ff161e6&bsft_uid=98e61677-3c2d-4623-938b-0701f75e454d&bsft_mid=99134f9d-bc50-434e-bc45-2d05e95100b9&bsft_utid=98e61677-3c2d-4623-938b-0701f75e454d-000029341811-001&bsft_link_id=230&bsft_mime_type=html&bsft_ek=2020-12-23T06:10:42Z&bsft_lx=5&bsft_tv=9
but we should not forget cities are the greatest wealth-creating engines in the history of civilisation ;
I am not a city person but I will not deny that all the creativity, mind exchange and leverage that I experience in startup nodes can NOT be accessed thru Zoom, teleconf or phone video call.
We in Australia were even at a disadvantage with a lack of critical mass even before COVID.
When you destroy cities, you destroy wealth creation, tomorrow's star businesses and inventions and ultimately destroy the economy. This is one trend that markets have not priced in and where China is once again laughing:
I am not allowed to travel back to SZ but the startup there are still running at 100%: building the 50k drones which will sink our billion dollars submarines at will or shot down our 10 millions a pop fighters; stealing and improving new EV technology, building airspace projects  and obviously your phones and AI chips and maybe even manufacturing our next covid  if we manage to survive this one.
Here and in the west, we lockdown and the emulation is inZoom teleconf for rapidly getting overweight workers in bathrobe and slippers

We are assisting live to the West self destruction, and i stupidly thought we would fall to the green plague or Mr Xi attacks.


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## Smurf1976 (23 December 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 116968



One major theme I'll note is that the things hit hardest and which have had the largest kick in the face are, broadly speaking, the exact same things widely touted as "the future" by some (but actively opposed by others....) for many years now.

Mass tourism.

Public transport.

High density living in cities.

"Cafe culture"

The service economy.

That pretty much summarises it and it's also exactly what has been smacked firmly in the face.

In contrast someone who drives their car from their suburban home to their job at a factory has been far less affected indeed not much has changed for them in their daily life, the pandemic being mostly about travel, sports, concerts and school closures if relevant.

To be fair I could be biased - I'm one of those who's opposed that whole approach all along on the basis that it wasn't economically sustainable. So to be fair, perhaps some personal bias in the comment.


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## qldfrog (23 December 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> One major theme I'll note is that the things hit hardest and which have had the largest kick in the face are, broadly speaking, the exact same things widely touted as "the future" by some (but actively opposed by others....) for many years now.
> 
> Mass tourism.
> 
> ...



Fully agree, remember my previous rants on an economy based on baristas, paying migrants hiding as "foreign students" amd overall mass immigration as engine of growth.
And we are now seeing the coal exports being hit hard as well as agricultural products.
So what is left is to date: iron ore and....iron ore!
But we still have debt
Figures to be accessed in the next quarter...


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## SyBoo (24 December 2020)

Blocked Trade.
*Coal;* Indonesia needs to blend their brown coal with Australian coal to get up to spec before they can flog it to China. So some of the coal still goes to China via Indonesia. (WHC ships to Indo)
*Barley;* Was shipped of to other countries and the farmer are much happy with the new arrangements.
*Beef;*  Overall the beef trade is down, China deceased in rank but is still 3rd. Even US volumes are down, but South Korea and Japan volumes up. At the moment a decrease in the beef trade is a good thing as helps the farmers restock.
*Wine and Lobster;* Are luxury items and China probable can't afford them at the moment anyway.


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## Smurf1976 (24 December 2020)

It's only one cabaret venue but it has been there for 96 years apparently, surviving the Great Depression and WW2.

I wonder how many other "always been there" type things around the world will be lost amidst all this? At a guess, probably quite a lot.



> An iconic central London cabaret venue that survived 96 years of war, bombs, recession and uncertainty has shut down with no plans to reopen








__





						London’s Café de Paris closes forever
					

After 95 years of cabaret antics



					www.timeout.com


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## over9k (24 December 2020)

qldfrog said:


> yes more BS and lockdown fully demonstrated to not being of any help, etc; but look here...
> 
> One area we discussed earlier and with plenty of data from @over9k was the move out of cities..
> Look who is talking ?Qldfrog left Brisbane hinterland for the greener grasses of the Noosa hinterland 3 month ago, and something planned a year earlier
> ...



I reckon the market will sort this out itself frog - if you're needed in the office, you're needed in the office. 

The thing is you're probably not needed in the office _every _day, so let's say you worked from home 2/5 days a week, if your company sets up a hot-desk system, that's still a 40% rent reduction. 

That's the thing about all of this - it's not an either/or proposition, you can be in the office when needed and stay home when not. For example, if I was only in the office one day a week I'd move hours away from work and just deal with one loooooong day each week if it meant all the other days were a commute from my kitchen to my home office 5 seconds walk away.


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## qldfrog (24 December 2020)

over9k said:


> I reckon the market will sort this out itself frog - if you're needed in the office, you're needed in the office.
> 
> The thing is you're probably not needed in the office _every _day, so let's say you worked from home 2/5 days a week, if your company sets up a hot-desk system, that's still a 40% rent reduction.
> 
> That's the thing about all of this - it's not an either/or proposition, you can be in the office when needed and stay home when not. For example, if I was only in the office one day a week I'd move hours away from work and just deal with one loooooong day each week if it meant all the other days were a commute from my kitchen to my home office 5 seconds walk away.



True, but this is not new, once again an anecdotal evidence is my case .IT contractor since 2000.
I had been doing that since 2010, except when working for dinosaurs aka big corporations which took ages to embrace. But ultimately, i just want to stress that the demise of the city is a slow demise of innovation.
Sure you could try to create mini hubs like shared offices by Coolum or Ubud where you can recreate that cross fertility.
Being an entrepreneur..sorry for the cliche..this is the attraction of WeWorks model but the move is not from city to Outer suburbs..,as i saw when trying to sell in Brisbane hinterland this year.
it is to Noosa, Byron Bay or as i said Ubud Caribbean islands or Nevada.
This is not good news long term


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## over9k (24 December 2020)

Freight lorries and heavy goods vehicles are stacked at Manston Airport near Ramsgate, south east England, where freight transport was diverted to wait after France closed its borders in response to the new coronavirus strain detected in the U.K.


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## sptrawler (24 December 2020)

over9k said:


> View attachment 117116
> 
> 
> Freight lorries and heavy goods vehicles are stacked at Manston Airport near Ramsgate, south east England, where freight transport was diverted to wait after France closed its borders in response to the new coronavirus strain detected in the U.K.



It's a shame France didn't stop the U.K going over the channel to drag them out of the $hit, in two World wars. IMO.


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## over9k (25 December 2020)

Alright so here's the month so far:




Semiconductors in blue, dow in light blue, nasdaq in purple, sp500 in pink, r2k in orange, fangs in yellow, and I've also included midcaps in aqua. Note its uptick vs the fangs downtick over the past three days, which I'll get into in a minute.

As you can see, the fangs & the r2k are head & shoulders above everything else. However, you'll also note that the fangs have turned negative and the midcaps have turned positive over the past few days.

Here's the week:




Notice how the fangs are actually the worst for this week (not the month, just the last few days) and the midcaps have come in 2nd? It may be time to move out of the fangs and into a small & mid cap position. Semiconductors also need an eye kept on them as they came out of the gate storming above even the r2k and then had a melt before a nice uptick today. There's always a selloff after christmas as the yanks work on a calendar financial year & a lot of people decide to realise their losses for tax reasons, so we can expect markets to go negative next week, but we obviously want to keep a close eye on what's going on here as this may be the early stages of a rotation.

Meanwhile:







In case anyone's wondering what's underpinning all of these gains/where all this spending is coming from:






And china is obviously the main beneficiary of all this american spending (for now):








Result?




I think that's what you call ironic.


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## over9k (25 December 2020)

Housing:





_"Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7.3% in October 2020 compared with October 2019 and increased month over month by 1.1% in October 2020 compared with September 2020"._

But, let's get more granular:





_Despite the rapid acceleration of national home price growth, local markets continue to vary. For instance, in Phoenix, where there is a severe shortage of for-sale homes, prices increased 12.1% in October. Meanwhile, the New York-Jersey City-White Plains metro recorded only a small annual increase of 2.1%, as *residents continue to seek out more space in less densely populated areas*. At the state level, Maine, Idaho and Arizona experienced the strongest price growth in October, up 14.9%, 13.1% and 12%, respectively._

Cross reference this with both the aggregate drop and the locations of the biggest slumps in apartment rents I showed earlier:




And we get data points like this:





Not complex really, is it? People are, like mad, bailing out of the absolute hell that shoebox-apartment city living is and moving to where they can buy (on account of now being able to work from it) an actual _house. _

The overall increase in house prices isn't difficult to explain either - interest rates don't just drive up equity asset valuations, they drive up all assets prices, housing included.

Corelogic's publicly available data is here: https://www.corelogic.com/insights-...rices Nationally,October 2020 to October 2021.


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## over9k (26 December 2020)




----------



## Knobby22 (26 December 2020)

over9k said:


> The thing is the americans have the world's reserve currency, which puts them in an absolutely _unique _position in this aspect. They really can just print the daylights out of it and be basically fine because there's just _so _much USD floating around the world that it becomes a minimal difference to the overall money supply, even if it's a large chunk of U.S GDP.




It is until it isn't. We all know in economics that step changes occur.


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## over9k (26 December 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> It is until it isn't. We all know in economics that step changes occur.



True. But:







The yanks don't have the demographic inversion that everyone else do. Don't get me wrong, things aren't great, but they're a hell of a lot better than quite literally _everyone _else except india. When money obviously follows an "any port in a storm" approach, well, the yanks have the best port by miles. There's a reason why all this chinese money is pouring in and overpaying for everything - even if you overpay, you still keep more of your money than if you left it where it was.

Until confidence is lost in the USD (and demographics mean it simply can't for at least a generation) the debt can keep piling up, and that confidence isn't going to go away because this chicken is going to come home to roost far, far sooner for everyone else. Remember that it's not just the debt:gdp that's at play, it's how difficult to pay it off that matters as well. I'd much rather twice the debt if it was 3x as easy to pay off (or whatever) for example as that's only effectively 2/3rds of the burden. But everyone else are actually going to find their higher debt:gdp ratio harder to pay off on a per-dollar basis as _well _as having more of it to pay off. It's a double-whammy in the americans' favour.

Confidence in the USD is so high that several trillion bucks actually flooded _into _the united states during the GFC for example, and the next shitshow isn't even going to be centred there. Where you want your cash post-virus isn't even going to be in doubt. The rest of the world soon effectively won't have an economy outside of whatever it can export, and the only export (read: young people who buy all the stuff) market left is america.

Translation: Convert your money _now. _


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## over9k (29 December 2020)




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## over9k (30 December 2020)

End of year selloff might have begun. Will obviously keep posting the numbers.


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## over9k (31 December 2020)

The next day: 




Futures are green too. Looks like the week might end up about flatlined. I sold off last week expecting a drop so time to deploy some cash again.


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## over9k (31 December 2020)

Coronavirus Has Thrown Around 100 Million People Into Extreme Poverty, World Bank Estimates
					

The coronavirus pandemic has thrown between 88 million and 114 million people into extreme poverty, according to the World Bank’s biennial estimates of global poverty.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## over9k (1 January 2021)

Ok so here's the week, only the r2k ended down:




But considering the run that's had lately, I suspect it's a lot of froth being taken off:





Growth is still the place to be:






USD is still loooooow, so great time to convert your cash:




And we got some better than expected jobs info too:





All in all, with the vaccines rolling out, things should be up & up from here unless we get some other curveball (which does have a very realistic likelihood of occurring).


----------



## over9k (4 January 2021)

Alright looks like the snoozefest might be over, here's the futures, I'll obviously update at close as well again. |


----------



## over9k (5 January 2021)

YEAH SO THAT ENDED WELL DIDN'T IT?

Everything even opened well into the green. Apparently a lot of profit taking in the new financial year occurred. Makes sense. First negative open to the year since 2016.

Meanwhile:


----------



## over9k (6 January 2021)

Then:




Nek minnut:


----------



## over9k (6 January 2021)

Aaaand everything went well into the green again. Oil in particular after the saudi cut, though that has nothing to do with the virus.








Meanwhile, the senate runoff election has done this:




So tonight is going to be WILD.


----------



## over9k (7 January 2021)

This week's a total writeoff when it comes to coronavirus consequences as there's been both the big saudi production cut announcement as well as the election, but I'll still post the coronavirus info at close. It's been an absolutely mental day so far:




And the only longer term consequence is that the election result might mean that the expected rotation occurs far sooner than anticipated.


----------



## over9k (7 January 2021)

Alright so I suspect everyone's seen the news by now so today, if not a writeoff for coronavirus consequences before, sure is now, so I'll just leave this here:





And point out that this is a very intelligent way of saying they're really unsure whether this apparent rotation is going to continue or not, isn't it?


My personal holdings are now these:




Which obviously looked very different before this stuff in washington kicked off. I suspect we'll be back to where we were once everything calms down. It's just going to be a bumpy ride. 

Microcaps are still an overwhelmingly good trade, it's just a question of whether our tech positions need to go yet. I've obviously trimmed a bit and bought spxl & udow.


----------



## over9k (8 January 2021)

Alright so after all this madness with the senate election, capitol building etc etc we've ended up here:




Earlier in the week it looked like the rotation had begun, but the election is there, so that's played merry hell with things.

Here's the week so far (all listings are triple levered):




You can see what's benefited from the election the most but you can also see how it was semiconductors in dark blue that were highest then the r2k in yellow/big banks in aqua that were 2nd before the election. The fangs were next best. 

So we have an election that's fighting with the coronavirus stuff - you can see how the election favoured the banks the most but then semiconductors & microcaps, which were the best places to be beforehand, are 2nd & 3rd. So we can see how semiconductors & microcaps are a great place to be either way. 

I trimmed a bit out of my fangs position (kept r2k and semiconductors) and into bnku, spxl & udow on 31st december in anticipation of a rotation to start the year and that didn't reeeally occur - fangs were doing better than the dow & sp500 until the election and then spxl/udow/bnku have taken off like gunshots after the senate flipped, which has just been a rare stroke of serendipity for me. 

The question now becomes whether the election consequences have been priced in correctly. Either way, semiconductors & the r2k are excellent bets (and I have no plans to change either of them because of it), but keeping the fangs of our barbell spread is a bit iffy - the virus data likes the megatech but the election doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pullback in the big election winners tomorrow/back into megatech (classic profit taking friday) on account of the fact that whilst the election is over, the virus isn't.

But if the election means that the market no longer cares about the virus and the fangs are still in the doldrums next week, they go. Previously, our play was basically "ask the virus" but the election might have thrown that out the window. Only time will tell with this, so it's now just a waiting game. 



Meanwhile, hospitalisations continue to climb:


----------



## over9k (9 January 2021)

December jobs report: Payrolls drop for the first time since April, unemployment rate steadies at 6.7%
					

The Labor Department released its December jobs report Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET.




					finance.yahoo.com
				




Jobs are down for the first time since april, markets couldn't care less, futures are highest for nasdaq & r2k.


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## over9k (9 January 2021)

And yet:



	

		
			
		

		
	
You can see how the fangs outperformed the dow & S&P on the non-political days, and microcaps & semiconductors were head & shoulders above everything else all week (except the banks which went nuts on the political days).

Still too early to tell whether the fangs need to go or not but microcaps & semiconductors continue to be golden no matter what. The political stuff seems to be throwing the virus problems/consequences out the window at the moment. 

Zoom's trailed the market significantly if that means anything to anyone.


----------



## over9k (10 January 2021)

Cross-post:

This was a headline three weeks ago:




And now:




I've held soxl since early september, still not selling:


----------



## over9k (11 January 2021)

__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## sptrawler (11 January 2021)

over9k said:


> View attachment 118156
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I wonder if the Chinese manufacturers, are facing the same shortages? Any idea where the chips are sourced from? U.S, Japan, China?


----------



## over9k (11 January 2021)

No idea about the manufacturers specifically, but a huge chunk of the world's chips are produced in taiwan & korea by TSMC & samsung respectively.

You'd be surprised just how many chips, memory modules etc etc are just rebranded samsung items. Something like 98% of the world's LCD panels are samsung for example, even though there's a zillion different TV brands.

The other big manufacturer is micron, but they're kind of everywhere: https://www.micron.com/about/locations


I have no idea which manufacturer uses who but reality is that a car needs *all* its chips/parts before it can be sold so even if 1 chip out of 30 or whatever isn't available, that's all that's necessary to bring the whole production line to a screeching halt.

I made a post a while back about how all of TSMC & Samsung's manufacturing capacity has been running at 100% since april with chips on backorder until at least Q2 of this year so I guess even car orders (the rest were just games consoles, iphones, laptops etc) are now coming in faster than we can make the chips needed for them.

Not even I was expecting _car _orders to outpace chip manufacturing capability. I mean iphones or playstations, which are only a few hundred bucks at most, I could understand, but cars, which are tens of thousands of dollars each? That's nuts.


Not selling my position in SOXL


----------



## over9k (12 January 2021)

And wouldn't you know it, NIO & SOXL on a tear today even when the whole market (including tesla) is deep into the red:




Not selling either.


----------



## over9k (12 January 2021)

Covid-19 wipes out nearly a quarter of US coffee shop market value
					

Operators remain resilient in the face of sustained trading pressuresAllegra World Coffee Portal estimates the US branded coffee shop segment to be valued at $36bn, a decline of 24% over the last 12 months predominantly due to Covid-19 disruptionThe total US branded coffee shop segment comprises...




					www.worldcoffeeportal.com
				







Reflecting the huge challenges all US café businesses face, just 38% of industry leaders surveyed by World Coffee Portal believe current trading is positive – down from 65% in 2019. Those operators reporting losses due to Covid-19 estimate the cost at approximately $32,500 per store, *per month. *

That's a lot of coffee.


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## over9k (12 January 2021)

Close numbers:




Really choppy day. The trump banning etc off social media and all that stuff has sent a lot of stuff reeling. Coronavirus once again completly ignored, despite the numbers having actually dropped a bit: 



So expect AU tech to get slaughtered today. 

More news tomorrow!


----------



## Balder (12 January 2021)

over9k said:


> And wouldn't you know it, NIO & SOXL on a tear today even when the whole market (including tesla) is deep into the red:
> 
> View attachment 118189
> 
> ...



You made me look at SOXL, convinced me to have a flutter, so far so good bud.


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## over9k (12 January 2021)

I'm not selling. Like I said, everything, just normal chips, are on backorder until April. And that was before the car demand stuff I've just posted. 

I'm actually considering adding to my position as car chip demand is only going to increase from here on out and that's just chips for normal cars - imagine the demand once we add electric car chip demand (electric cars have way more electronic wizardry/chips in them than regular cars for what I hope are obvious reasons) to it as well.


----------



## over9k (12 January 2021)

And as if on cue:












						TSMC Profit Surge Cements Kingpin Role in Global Chip Crunch
					

(Bloomberg) -- Follow Bloomberg on LINE messenger for all the business news and analysis you need.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. likely chalked up its fastest pace of profit growth in a decade, after the Taiwanese company cemented its role as chipmaker of choice to the world’s technology...




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




_The world’s largest contract chipmaker is projected to report a *48.6% rise in 2020 net income* Thursday, its speediest rate of expansion since 2010. Investors have sent its stock soaring 70% since the start of 2020, betting that the likes of Apple Inc. will continue to lean on its widening technological lead over Samsung Electronics Co. On Tuesday, Bernstein analysts raised their target on its shares to NT$800, *anticipating a further gain of more than 30%.* _




TSMC is 3.49% of SOXX (direxion semiconductor ETF), but I hold (and have no plans to sell) SOXL, which is the triple levered version.

If TSMC reports high earnings then that bodes (indicates) well for the whole sector, so we can expect the whole etf to scream tomorrow if the earnings are as good as anticipated.


----------



## over9k (12 January 2021)

Meanwhile, basically everyone are now projecting europe to have a double-dip recession:





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




I don't know if there's any forex traders on here but this means that at the exact moment that the senate flipped/gave the USA a complete democrat sweep of the house/presidency/senate, i.e political nirvana for the USA has happened, economically speaking, the proverbial has hit the fan in europe, giving the USD tailwinds and the euro headwinds at the same time and so several months of USD decline is now well on its way to reversing:




This economic armageddon is actually exactly what we were expecting for the entire northern hemisphere's winter, i.e both USA and EUR, (the vaccines have just put a bit of a floor in place on account of the fact that they give the markets _some _assurance of a light at the end of the tunnel) but the presidency and senate both flipping in the U.S has made the USD the overwhelmingly best port in this particular storm.


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## over9k (13 January 2021)

found the info you wanted about chip sources for the chinese manufacturers @sptrawler



Part 1 of post:



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
		


"Carmakers’ predicament is exacerbated by the fact that chips are crucial for the latest features they are touting, be it assisted driving, large displays or connectivity. Semiconductor-based components are set to account for more than 50% of a car’s manufacturing cost by 2030, up from about 35% now, and in semiconductors, China has only one company in the top 20, and *less than 5% of automotive chips are made in the country.* For some key components, carmakers rely *90% *on imports". 

So yeah. They're VERY exposed to foreign sources of chips.

The USA is as well as a lot of chips are produced in south korea & taiwan but at least the americans have _some _production onshore. I know this is a bit outdated but I've managed to find at least SOME numbers:

1. U.S. semiconductor companies lead in global semiconductor market share, accounting for 51 percent of total global semiconductor sales in 2014.

2. U.S. semiconductor companies do most of their manufacturing (52 percent) in the United States.



			https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/SIA-White-Paper-Made-in-America.pdf
		


So about 25% of america's chip production is onshore, vs 5% of china's. Or 1/4 vs 1/20th. Quite the difference.




Part 2:

Here's some updated info about just how much car production has ground to a halt:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-snarl-car-production-at-factories-worldwide

So it looks like things are now on backorder until Q3, but a lot of vaccines will be deployed/the economy will well & truly be back on the increase by then so that might actually add to car demand even more.





Part 3:

What all this means is that due to the tech now in cars, we now have a situation in which an increase in car demand thus also means a commensurate increase in chip demand at the same time as cars becoming ever more technical/chip reliant by the day. In other words, we have a double-whammy increase in chip demand from both an increase in car demand in and of itself combined with a chip-per-car _saturation _increase _at the same time_. Either of these factors alone would be increasing chip demand significantly but when you put them together at the same time you end up with a *multiplier effect *in demand increase.

I'm actually seriously considering selling my UDOW position off and pumping it all into SOXL in light of this. If an increase in demand for industrials gives a commensurate/follow-on increase in demand for microchips at the same time as chip saturation in said industrials is increasing, you have a singular demand increase for industrials vs an amplified or multiplied increase in demand for microchips, making microchips the much better place to be.

The only question from here is whether the rest of the market has already figured this out and thus already priced it in. SOXL is already very high.


Hmm. Looks like a busy day ahead.


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## over9k (13 January 2021)

__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				





"While pursuing its unusual strategy, Sweden questioned other nations’ decisions to lock down. Its path to mandatory restrictions has left the Nordic country with more than three times more virus deaths per capita than Denmark, the closest regional peer in terms of fatalities".


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## sptrawler (14 January 2021)

over9k said:


> "While pursuing its unusual strategy, Sweden questioned other nations’ decisions to lock down. Its path to mandatory restrictions has left the Nordic country with more than three times more virus deaths per capita than Denmark, the closest regional peer in terms of fatalities".



The thing is the virus has cranked up a notch, so maybe it wasn't just a flu, who knows.
But it certainly seems to have put Sweden back to square one.


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## over9k (14 January 2021)

Result?


----------



## over9k (14 January 2021)

Cross-post:

TSMC's beat even the hugely inflated expectations:


----------



## basilio (15 January 2021)

COVID has destroyed the international student with huge consequences for Universities and the industries supporting/feeding off O/S students.
Latest causality is new student accommodation tower in Central Melbourne with 750 rooms and practically empty.

Check the story out but take closer look at the accommodation.   The charge  for these rooms is up to $600 a week.* If *that bed is 200cms  long  you can work out the size of the (only)  room. Think I have seen bigger kennels..


*International student accommodation almost empty as sector battles with COVID-19 quarantine and border restrictions *
By Kristian Silva
Posted  9hhours ago, updated 5hhours ago


 A room in the Scape Carlton, a large student accommodation tower set to open in Melbourne next month.(ABC News: Chris Le Page)






						Scape
					






					www.scape.com
				












						This $100 million student block has a pool hall, cinema and rooftop city views. But it's empty
					

The Scape Carlton is a symbol of Australia's crippled international student industry, which is feeling the pain of a mass exodus from the country because of the pandemic. But experts say some green shoots are emerging.




					www.abc.net.au


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## over9k (15 January 2021)

Yes, this country's reliance on the foreign student dollar etc is doing immeasurable damage.


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## Knobby22 (15 January 2021)

over9k said:


> Yes, this country's reliance on the foreign student dollar etc is doing immeasurable damage.




We will be alright long term.
Keep taking students (secondary school)  from Vietnam and India, not as rich as the Chinese but less problematic. Australia should look at getting more Japanese and Thai students.

Our family rented out our spare room to Chinese and in one case a Vietnamese student. The Chinese students were extremely wealthy.
They were often forced to live here and study and were basically a potential escape route for their billionaire parents if something went wrong in China. Most of the girls we got didn't really want to be here.


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## over9k (15 January 2021)




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## qldfrog (15 January 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> We will be alright long term.
> Keep taking students (secondary school)  from Vietnam and India, not as rich as the Chinese but less problematic. Australia should look at getting more Japanese and Thai students.
> 
> Our family rented out our spare room to Chinese and in one case a Vietnamese student. The Chinese students were extremely wealthy.
> They were often forced to live here and study and were basically a potential escape route for their billionaire parents if something went wrong in China. Most of the girls we got didn't really want to be here.



For any rich chinese kid coming from a top tier city, Australia is like a punition.
Really backward in term of connectivity, shopping, city attractions,etc
a bore.. only so much fun look8ng at waves or koalas for a teenager....


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## over9k (16 January 2021)

Microcaps still the place to be. A lot of stuff sold off HARD today after being deep into the green/rising all week. Markets are closed monday so profit taking friday was ratcheted up a notch:




Hospitalisations have flatlined... for now:


----------



## over9k (16 January 2021)

Ford's just halted production for a full month because of the microchip shortage:









						Ford Halts Focus Car Plant for Full Month Due to Chip Shortage
					

Ford Motor Co. is halting production of its most popular car model in Europe for a full month because of the shortage of semiconductors disrupting the world’s biggest automakers.




					www.bloomberg.com
				




And IHS are predicting the shortage to continue until at least Q3:









						Automotive semiconductor supply constraints expected to resolve by second half of 2021
					

Automotive semiconductor supply constraints expected to resolve by second half of 2021




					ihsmarkit.com
				




Apparently it's not just cars that have way more chips in them nowadays either - apparently all our new gadgets (phones, tv's etc) have far more chips in them than the old gadgets too.



So that now makes ford, toyota, honda, fiat-chrysler, and general motors all either reducing or outright suspending production. More will undoubtedly follow.

Semiconductor-based components are set to account for more than 50% of a car’s manufacturing cost by 2030, up from about 35% now too: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-in-ev-parts-competitiveness-think-tank-warns 

So this problem is only going to get worse long-term as well.


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## over9k (18 January 2021)

Goldman (admittedly a market maker) has lifted its forecasts:




I actually tend to agree. The major curveball is the microchip shortage. Industrials simply cannot actually function without the chips, so if manufacturers of cars etc can't get the chips, they can't sell/make any cars. 

Car etc production simply cannot get moving until the chip shortage is rectified, and that appears to be months off yet. Industrials will obviously rebound massively once they do, but trying to time that (and the pre-emptive pricing in of that expectation) seems impossible. 

The only real data we have is that chips are on backorder until Q3, but that backorder data just keeps increasing further and further by the day. In other words, orders are coming in faster than the world can make the things. 

Chips are a good bet either way (both short and long term) but timing when industrials will rebound seems impossible. Even the biggest stimulus package ever doesn't matter if consumers can't actually buy the product.


----------



## over9k (19 January 2021)

Audi can now be added to the list of carmakers having to suspend production:









						Audi delays output, idles 10,000 staff on chip shortage
					

[FRANKFURT] A global semiconductor shortage is forcing Audi to delay the production of some high-end cars and furlough workers, its chief executive officer told the Financial Times. Read more at The Business Times.




					www.businesstimes.com.sg
				




10,000 people out of work as a result.

“Some customers have ordered too late, which is why we are not keeping up with deliveries in some areas,” Dutch manufacturer NXP said. “*It takes three months or more from the production of complex microchips to delivery*,” a NXP spokesman said.

Automakers cut back microchip orders when factories were closed, and demand plunged during the first coronavirus lockdowns last year.

The industry is showing signs of recovery, but automakers and suppliers are competing with smartphone makers such as Apple and Samsung, which are raising their orders for microchips.

Supply for the auto sector in the near term is “very difficult,” in part because the semiconductor industry’s lengthy manufacturing process means clients are penalized for wrongly anticipating demand, said Mike Hogan, head of automotive business for Globalfoundries.

"Globalfoundries is running its factories at an unprecedented pace and is prioritizing chips for cars to satisfy demand", Hogan said".


Still holding SOXL. Still considering torching my UDOW position and pumping it into SOXL.


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## over9k (22 January 2021)

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/housing-starts-december-2020.html 


Housing starts way better than expected. NAIL's soared as a result. Can also expect numbers to ruuuuun on biden's immigration policy (which I know has nothing to do with coronavirus, but still...)


----------



## over9k (23 January 2021)

Fangs/nasdaq & r2k still best & 2nd best. Chips somewhere in between the two. Hospitalisations appear to have finally turned the corner.

Lots of other sectors/holdings like TAN have gone nuts lately but they've had nothing to do with coronavirus. Lots of earnings getting reported next week. Industrials still can't recover until the chip shortage is sorted, which isn't going to be for quite some time yet.


----------



## over9k (25 January 2021)

Taiwan Orders up to 5,000 People to Quarantine in Virus Outbreak
					

Taiwan’s health authorities have implemented their broadest lockdown measures yet in an effort to keep a widening outbreak of Covid-19 from spiraling out of control.




					www.bloomberg.com
				




Taiwan starts a quarantine. Expect the chip shortage to get even worse if this thing isn't brought under control. 

Good time to buy the competition.


----------



## over9k (27 January 2021)

You'd have to be pretty retarded not to think this was going to happen though. 

It also tells you a lot of why the market is so reliant on stimulus/stimulus news is whipsawing markets every time we get any.


----------



## over9k (6 February 2021)

Haven't forgotten about this thread gang, the stuff with gamergate etc just kind of took everything offline for a bit.

Hopefully they'll return to normal next week, and we have good news on the virus front all round:




With the yanks now heading into summer, we've turned the corner. One more stimulus package and we should get through it. The next clock will be vaccine rollout rate(s).


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Alright it looks like all the BS is largely behind us so let's get back to the data. 


First, the semiconductor shortage is still causing MAJOR headaches as lockdowns are starting to effect the supply of chips:





Despite demand being higher than ever:




And so the chinese makers are having to get lines of credit to keep afloat as they literally cannot actually produce the cars that are in demand:




China's actually continuing to go absolute gangbusters in fact: 




But the real story is how lockdowns everywhere are both increasing unemployment and choking supply of almost everything (people not being able to work = companies not being able to supply stuff): 







And that's the real story/meat of what's going on now, which I'll get into in the next post.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Alright so the real story of this year is basically that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Everyone are carrying on about now is both inflation and as an extension of that, stagflation. We've seen serious rises in the prices of almost everything lately - all foodstuffs, all electronics/tech, building supplies, you name it. A lot of this has been attributed to the massive quantitative easing program that the fed is undertaking but that is only a small part of the story. The real story is the fact that demand has remained stubbornly high for almost everything like this but supply has been choked off by coronavirus lockdowns. Ergo, we get demand either higher or at least steady, and supply choked off. 

Jobs data everywhere has actually been far worse than expected, with the latest U.S data being about half what was anticipated:





So question is, what's changed now vs a month or two or six ago? 

Well, it's actually almost nothing. Lockdowns are still in place, money continues to be printed, and the supply of everything continues to be unable to keep up with the demand for it due to suppliers not being able to work or choke points at the ports. 

The result of this is that our previous barbell spread is actually even more pronounced now than it was previously. Everything's beating estimates, but it's the mega and especially microcaps that are smoking everything else:






The result is that a results matrix that long term looks like this:




Is now put on steroids:






In short, with interest rates controlling the balance between growth & value and interest rates at zero, growth massacres value until the P/E yields get somewhere near matching the capital cost (interest) rates. 

Combine that with the fact that the tech companies are absolutely cleaning up and the previously tiny microcaps in areas like work/operate/live/etc from home get more demand every time we get lockdowns or stimulus (and we've had both) and industrials literally unable to operate even ignoring lockdowns because of the microchip shortage that is caused by everyone buying stuff precisely to keep them at home, and we end up with a full on feedback loop where more staying at home = more demand for chips = more industrials unable to operate = more people staying at home.

There's a lot of talking heads banging on about inflation & stagflation and saying that gold's due for another run, but I think they've missed the point entirely. Whilst it's true that the money printing is pumping everything, people seem to be forgetting that there's a massive supply-side restriction going on at the moment. The second people are able to get back in the workforce (due to being vaccinated, lockdowns being lifted, or both) supply can increase again. 


The good news is that it's all tailwinds & downhill from here. We've well & truly turned the corner of hospitalisations being over the hill of winter, so the warmer things get the less contagious the environment becomes:




And the vaccine deployments, whilst being slower than anticipated, are well & truly underway with an estimated 9 months until everyone's had their jabs in the U.S:



However, there's more vaccines in development/in the approval pipeline so we're very likely to see several more vaccines being deployed simultaneously. With that in mind, it's not unreasonable to expect that the job might be done sooner than anticipated, but murphy's law says not to actually expect that. 

If that timeline's correct, the yanks will all be immune just in time for winter to shut everything down again, so I'm expecting organic (not stimulus driven) economic activity to keep increasing to a certain point maybe around end of Q3/start of Q4 this year, flatline through winter, and then REALLY take off in the winter melt/first half of 2022.


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## moXJO (11 February 2021)

over9k said:


> Alright so the real story of this year is basically that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
> 
> Everyone are carrying on about now is both inflation and as an extension of that, stagflation. We've seen serious rises in the prices of almost everything lately - all foodstuffs, all electronics/tech, building supplies, you name it. A lot of this has been attributed to the massive quantitative easing program that the fed is undertaking but that is only a small part of the story. The real story is the fact that demand has remained stubbornly high for almost everything like this but supply has been choked off by coronavirus lockdowns. Ergo, we get demand either higher or at least steady, and supply choked off.
> 
> ...



Really great analysis. Appreciate the effort you always put in.


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## over9k (12 February 2021)




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## over9k (16 February 2021)

Vaccine numbers:


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## over9k (19 February 2021)

Total self interest from the shipping companies, but not wrong:


_Maritime frontline workers have been effectively imprisoned on ships around the world, well beyond the expiry date of their initial contracts with many prohibited from disembarking onto dry land. An estimated 400,000 workers have been left immobilised abroad, separated from their families and deadlocked in foreign ports. This not only represents a humanitarian crisis, but threatens to dismantle the smooth running of the global maritime supply chain, which accounts for 90% of all international trade.


The Neptune Declaration on Seafarer Wellbeing and Crew Change is spearheading a global call to action to urgently end the ongoing crisis. Vortexa has joined over 600 industry and human rights leaders in signing the Neptune Declaration; urging the immediate implementation of four key action points that both safeguard the wellbeing of seafarers and protect the maritime ecosystem from collapse:_



_Recognise seafarers as key workers and give them priority access to COVID-19 vaccines._
_Establish and implement gold standard health protocols based on existing best practice._
_Increase collaboration between ship operators and charterers to facilitate crew changes. _
_Ensure air connectivity between key maritime hubs for seafarers._
_International organisations, unions and governments are united in their resolve to have seafarers acknowledged as committed key workers, who have been providing essential services throughout the pandemic that thousands of livelihoods and economies the world over heavily rely on. Signatories of the Neptune Declaration currently include the likes of A.P. Møller - Mærsk, BP, BW, Cargill, COSCO, Euronav, MISC, NYK, Rio Tinto, Shell, Trafigura, Unilever and Vale - but more are being urged to join.

The disparity in support for seagoing versus land-based employees has become a serious concern for the international maritime community. The Neptune Declaration has the capacity to significantly mitigate the hardships of key workers and protect the functionality of crucial waterborne supply chains.

Join Vortexa and the coalition of leading industry organisations fighting to end the plight of shipping workers by sharing or signing the declaration now.

https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/neptune-declaration/ _


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## over9k (21 February 2021)

Snowstorm threw a spanner in the works this week guys, still can't return to a "normal" virus effects analysis. 

One thing to note is that the storm shut down a lot of vaccine distribution/deployment, so some time (maybe a week or so) has been added to the vaccination process.


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## Dona Ferentes (24 February 2021)

Things slowly turning around. ...

A Singapore Airlines A380, mothballed at Alice Springs for a year, has arrived in Sydney Kingsford Smith, presumably to be pressed into service again.


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## over9k (24 February 2021)

mm i think the process of getting them airworthy again takes quite some time though.


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## over9k (27 February 2021)

Alright so longer term followers of this thread probably remember the big post I made a few months ago talking about the shipping logjam we saw in October/November, and, well, it's only gotten worse. Back then, there was about a dozen container ships backed up waiting for berth space at Los Angeles.

Now it's three times that.

Ship congestion around the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has hit an unprecedented level, worsening the bottleneck at the busiest gateway for U.S. imports.

A record 38 container ships are awaiting berth space -- 36 at anchor and two more that were directed to wait in designated areas at sea until anchorages are available. It’s the first time since 2004 that these so-called drift zones have been used to manage traffic into the neighbouring ports.

Kip Louitt, executive director of the marine exchange of Southern California explaining how it works:

_"If all the anchorages and contingency anchorages fill up, ships will be placed in so-called “drift boxes” in deeper water. These are actually circles not boxes. Unlike ships at anchorages in shallower water, ships in drift boxes would not anchor, they’d drift. “When you drift out of the circle, which has a radius of 2 miles, you start your engine and go back to the middle of the circle"._

The vessels floating off Los Angeles have capacity to be carrying almost *300,000* containers measured by 20-foot equivalent units, according to the marine exchange’s list. L.A. says it’s expecting to handle 155,000 inbound containers next week, 80% more than a year ago, and Long Beach estimates taking in just under 100,000.

Average unload time is now out to eight days and some have had to sit at anchor for nearly* two weeks.*


A shipping intelligence picture from Vortexa or whomever simply looks like this:




But the actual "in the flesh" images are incredible:








The reasons are twofold:


Firstly, with American spending and stimulus cheques combining with an America that can't go to work but a China that's basically eradicated the virus and therefore _can, C_hina and Taiwan effectively become the _only _place that anyone actually _can_ get anything made - manufactured goods, microchips, whatever. The result is that the traffic is essentially entirely one way, with container prices FROM Asia increasing somewhere between three and five fold depending on exact origin and destination:




And there now being a major _container _shortage as well. Remember, it's not just the goods that are all moving one-way, it's the containers as well. Even worse, like the ships themselves, every minute spent at anchor is a minute the containers themselves are not being utilised either.

Chinese manufacturers have responded by producing _440,000 _containers just in january alone: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...force-global-commerce-to-look-outside-the-box

And amazingly, still can't keep up with the industry's insatiable demand for the things. Nerijus Poskus, vice president for global ocean at San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport Inc, reckons the world needs the equivalent of _half a million _more 20-foot containers -- roughly enough to fill 25 of the largest ships in operation.

As someone who used to run a business in this industry, I can tell you, when containers only cost approximately $2,000 each to make, shipping costs are very rapidly approaching the point where it will be cheaper for the companies to actually leave the containers in the United States and send the ships back mostly empty and just refill them with freshly made brand new containers from China than to actually ship the things back across the world again empty. This becomes especially apparent when you think about the fees and time saved by not needing to unload them once you arrive back in Shanghai or wherever.

The result of this has been companies actually diverting their shipping to basically anywhere they can get it unloaded and just sending the containers cross-country from Seattle or Vancouver or Houston or wherever by rail or if really desperate, trucking them. This means that a container ship may very well be sent through the Panama Canal and unloaded at Houston to get a container over to Los Angeles.

Some carriers were proactive, rerouting their shipments to Western Canada as early as May. The number of shippers taking the plunge has only grown, as it seems more and more vessels are skipping Californian ports altogether. Most of the ships end up going to ports in Victoria and Prince Rupert, but these cities lack the infrastructure network to deal with the increase in cargo efficiently, and they end up almost as congested as the LA and Long Beach ports have been.

Alternatives include ports in Mexico and along the Gulf Coast, as well as certain cities along the East Coast. Unfortunately, most Eastern U.S. ports have already reached their capacity as far as their ability to handle overflow demand. Much of their business now focuses on dealing with shipments from Asia that have come through the Suez Canal. More on this in a moment.





Secondly, the industry is grappling with the exact same problem that every job that cannot be done from home is:

All the staff are off work sick and/or in quarantine with coronavirus. The ports literally cannot get the staff they need to unload the containers and even when they do, can't get the trucks to put the containers on to free up the dockyard space needed to even unload the ships in the first place.

Recall I just mentioned I was going to bring up the shipments diverted to come the long way around from Asia through the Suez Canal. Well, you could be forgiven for thinking that this would be an expensive but effective solution to this problem, and you would be completely wrong. Why? Because it's not just the United States that has been ravaged by/has huge numbers of people unable to work because of coronavirus. So, too, have Egypt and Panama.

The result, well, isn't complex. During the latest call of Oslo-listed Avance Gas, the company’s chief commercial officer, Ben Martin, attributed canal transit delays to “the COVID effect of lack of crew to be able to manage the tugboats, which limits the number of transits.”

In layman's terms: A logjam.



As a result, the _Suez and Panama canals _have become global shipping chokepoints_, _with dozens of vessels now sitting at anchor waiting to even so much as transit those:




This problem is so bad that LNG and LPG ships are being diverted around the entire _continent, _down and around the Cape of Good Hope, in order to get to Asia: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-the-panama-canal-traffic-jam-is-affecting-ocean-shipping


The end result of all of this is first, ungodly amounts of sales (income) either delayed or just outright lost due to the inability for companies to actually get their products to their customers: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...millions-in-sales-delays-amid-shipping-logjam

But for the right kind of customer buying the right kind of product, air freight has actually now become a preference over shipping. Ordinarily, air freight costs up to 16 times more than shipping by sea. Not so any more.

With expected revenue of approximately $4 Billion this year but margins of some 35% or so, high-end exercise bike manufacturer Peloton has just spent a lazy $100 million on air freight in a desperate attempt to get its products to its customers down to approximately four weeks from the ten it's currently taking: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/news...s-desperate-to-overcome-its-supply-chain-woes

With trans-Pacific trade routes increasingly backed up, Whirlpool Corp. is also paying for faster options like air cargo to get its components and products to their final markets on time too. Whirlpool have just changed a significant amount of freight to move by air, adding another $10-20 million to their costs in a year, a drop in the bucket for a company that just reported quarterly net sales of $5.8 billion. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ghting-more-orders-as-shipping-logjam-worsens


And you want to know the kicker for all of this?

Freight costs probably aren't even at their peak yet.


A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container carrier, is working at full capacity and can’t yet see a peak in freight rates that have already been propelled to record highs by pandemic consumer spending. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ee-freight-rate-peak-with-all-ships-in-demand






Shipping and the logistics business as a whole has well & truly become clown world.


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## over9k (27 February 2021)

Completely unrelated to that (sort of), CNBC have done an actually decent segment on the chip shortage too:


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## over9k (3 March 2021)




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## over9k (5 March 2021)

Inflation fears are only now sending everyone's heads spinning. The snowstorm in texas was the, er, initial snowball. GUSH, NRGU, ERX, oil, anything inflation-linked has gone nuts. Even the banks have bounced on account of higher interest rates being good for them. Obviously ridiculous to only start getting worried about this in the last week or so, but we all know the quotes about market rationality. 

The other problem comes when stop-losses start getting triggered, key technical levels like EMA's broken etc etc and runs begin. 10 year treasuries are just at the S&P yield levels now:




So the risk premium for stocks has vanished, meaning we either get armageddon from here on out or we get a rebound. Almost everything was green in aftermarket trading because hey, it's not like the economy isn't on a recovery path now. A choppy one yes, but we're on the home stretch. Remember, stocks are priced by a combination of risk and future expectations, so with us now at a point of zero risk premium then all other things equal, we're at a price floor. With the other factor being future expectations, which are only positive, it's therefore unsurprising to see everything that's been smashed over the last week or so now green aftermarket. 

Today was actually green until powell's comments. The fed doesn't like stepping in unless it has no other choice (it's on record as being the option of last resort) so is generally far more reactive than proactive and we all know not to fight it. 

I bought NRGU, ERX, GUSH and a couple of other things quite a while ago but I've had tech like SOXL for ages. I have held everything. Remember, almost all the inflation is a supply-side problem. I posted all the stuff about the shipping problems etc for a reason. Get everyone back to work and making stuff and then supply will increase and prices will come down. 

This will also increase energy and oil consumption, hence my non-intention of selling anything


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## over9k (5 March 2021)

And as if on cue, here's a screencap that encapsulates how acute (absurd) the labour shortage in the workshops of the world has become perfectly:




Get everyone back to work (vaccinated) and all of this goes away.


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## over9k (5 March 2021)

Vaccine intel from Peter Zeihan:


_On March 2 the Biden administration announced a vaccine manufacturing partnership between two of the largest and most successful drug manufacturers in the United States: Johnson & Johnson and Merck. Less than a week previous the U.S. FDA approved J&J's vaccine for emergency use in combatting the COVID-19 virus; its formula will now be produced both in J&J and Merck facilities. (At present neither firm has announced expansion schedules or delivery volumes.)

This is big. Of the five proven anti-COVID vaccine formulas that have been approved for use in the First World, only the J&J formula is refrigerator safe and easy to manufacture and a single-dose formula. As such it can be used for inoculations at any facility worldwide that can handle any other vaccine formula. It is this formula that is capable of vaccinating the majority of the world's population against COVID, and with the Merck tie-up I've little doubt the formula will be able to make good on its potential.

Again, this is big. The question now becomes just how big?

Some backstory:

In his early days, the Biden administration activated an option in the Trump administration's supply contracts with Pfizer and Moderna. Each will now provide the United States with at least 300 million doses by the end of July, providing enough vaccine for 300 million Americans. That alone is enough to cover 90% of the American population, children included. Johnson & Johnson (by itself) will kick in another 100 million by the end of June, and since the J&J formula is single shot, that's enough for another 100 million people.

Such figures suggest every adult in the United States who wants to get the vaccine will be able to get it by June 1, and that on-demand, walk-in vaccinations will be available by mid-April.

In fact, this is now the worst-case scenario for vaccine availability in the United States. The manufacturers continue to find ways to optimize their manufacturing. For example, Pfizer has increased their rate of production by more than 80% in just January and February and has simplified its distribution by proving its formula can be stored in normal freezers as opposed to the dry-ice-ultra-cold set-ups it initially used. Such advances likely shaved 4-6 weeks off American vaccination schedules.

There are also two other vaccine formulas – AstraZeneca and Novavax – that will likely contribute millions of doses (maybe tens of millions) to the effort, bringing the American schedule ever forward.

Best yet, this new J&J-Merck tie up isn't included in the above prognostications. Despite what my vaccine optimism might suggest, vaccine manufacture isn't quick. It requires 2-3 months to grow the vaccine cultures in a vat, and then a few more weeks for testing and bottling. And that assumes the facilities are already ready to go. The primary reason the Pfizer and Moderna formulas are moving along so quickly is that they began production last year before they even applied for FDA approval. The J&J-Merck effort is only beginning now. We shouldn't expect to see first doses from the collaboration in the hands of medical professionals until June.

Which raises some very interesting geopolitical possibilities. June 1 is when the United States will have tens of millions of surplus doses from its existing production contracts. The J&J-Merck partnership will add at least 100 million doses on top of that, with many more to come throughout the summer as everyone's efforts continue to expand. While the bulk of the rest of the world will be starved of vaccine, the United States will have a glut. Since the U.S. government is the entity that contracted for the doses, it will be up to the Biden administration to decide where those doses go.

The term you're looking for is "vaccine diplomacy".

It comes at a fortuitous time. The United States has backed away from the world. This isn't a Clinton thing or a W Bush thing or an Obama thing or a Trump thing or a Biden thing, but instead a United States thing. The American people lost interest in playing a constructive role in the world three decades ago, and America's political leadership has molded itself around that fact. Trump may have been instinctually and publicly hostile to all things international, but Biden is only different in tone. Biden's Buy-American program is actually more anti-globalization than Trump's America-First rhetoric as it is an express violation of most of America's international trade commitments. TeamBiden says it wants to reestablish America's global leadership…but it plans to do so without any troops or money. Sorry, but that's not how it works.

Which makes the possibilities for vaccine diplomacy wildly interesting. The United States has no responsibility to provide COVID vaccines to the world. It can – it will – distribute them, but it will want something in return.
Let's begin with the obvious decisions:

Canada: Like the United States, the Canadian government contracted for more doses than it needed from multiple vaccine developers, working from the wise theory that not all would pan out. Like the United States, several of the firms Canada chose did work out, suggesting a similar vaccine glut. But unlike the United States, no vaccines are manufactured in Canada, so Canadians have had to wait. Not much longer. Whether it is because the United States finishes its vaccination program and so frees up manufacturing capacity for its northern neighbor, or because the Biden administration chooses to apply vaccine diplomacy to its closest friend, Canada will get all the vaccine it needs in June. Considering the Canadian health system is far superior to America's, mass vaccination in Canada should be completed by July 1.

Mexico: America's southern neighbor lacks both America's manufacturing capacity and Canada's health system. It was never going to be among the first countries to achieve mass vaccination. If left it its own devices, that is. In reality, Mexico will be second in line. Mexico is one of America's two largest trading partners (based on how you run the math). Mexicans are America's second- or third-largest ethnic group (depending upon how one defines "Mexican"). The Mexican-American border is the most-crossed (legally) in the world (no matter how you count). Completely ignoring health and ethics and good-neighborliness and focusing purely on self-interest, Mexico is the obvious second choice for American vaccine diplomacy. Vaccination there will take longer than Canada. After all, there are 130 million people in Mexico to Canada's 35 million, and the health system isn't nearly as advanced. But I'd be surprised if the Mexican effort wasn't functionally completed – and with it, the broader North American economy recovered – before August 1.

After that, the choices become less obvious.

The very nature of the vaccines and coronavirus limits the options:

China and Russia are out. In addition to the pair becoming increasingly hostile to all things American, both have their own vaccines and are not interested in any sort of quid pro quo with Washington.

Many of the poor portions of the world are out. In part, its an issue of economics and strategy. Its harsh to say but there is only so much that Bolivia or Niger can offer the United States. But just as important, it is about COVID itself. The people the virus tends to kill are over 65. In the world's poorer countries, not all that many live that long. That hardly means coronavirus is something they can just take in stride, but the mass casualties we've seen in the advanced world just don't occur within the younger-aged populations of the poorer parts of the developing world. And the niggling logistical issues remain; While the J&J formula can be distributed easily, it is the only one that can be – and even J&J needs a refrigerator cold chain.

India is probably out as well. Not because an Indo-American tie up wouldn't be a solid idea, but because India has its own vaccine manufacturing capacity. In fact, India has its own vaccine diplomacy program that already stretches from Mongolia to Myanmar (if you have problems with China, you can probably count on New Delhi to help you out with vaccines).

That still leaves us with just under half the global population that are potential American vaccine diplomacy targets. I can't tell you which countries TeamBiden will pick in which order. That will in part be determined by the new administration's evolving priorities as well as the broader geopolitical environment in the last half of 2021. What I can do is lay out the options from cleanest to messiest:

The Five Eyes: Back in the 1950s the Americans worked with the Brits, Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders to build a globe-spanning intelligence collection system. We know that today as the Five Eyes. The five Anglo nations aren't simply friends and allies, they are family, and it would stretch the mind for all not to be included in some degree of vaccine sharing. It was also be eeeeasy. After all, the UK is taking care of itself, and Canada is already first on America's list. Combined, there are only 30 million Aussies and Kiwis; Supplying sufficient doses would be child's play.

Japan and South Korea: Allies? Check. First World countries? Check. Major trading partners? Check. Excellent health infrastructure? Check. Wildly insufficient domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity? Check. Both the Japanese and Koreans loathed Donald Trump's efforts to wring economic and security concessions out of them, but in the end, both had to give in. Biden has indicated zero inclinations to give back anything Trump secured. If anything, the Biden administration will demand more. Vaccine diplomacy is an excellent way to either secure more concessions in specific or salve the relationships in general.

Southeast Asia: There's a brewing competition between China and the United States for influence throughout the region, making a broadscale vaccination program a useful tool. The problems are complexity and scope. There are some 650 million people in the region. It is also politically and strategically messy. A recent military coup in Myanmar and an aging military coup in Thailand suggest diplomatic complications. Singapore is wildly rich and can take care of itself. Indonesia is huge and poor and lacks basic infrastructure for upwards of one-third of its population. Laos and Cambodia are de facto Chinese satellites. Malaysia is…stuffy. The smartest target might prove to be the Philippines. Manila gets petulant from time to time if the United States doesn't toss the Philippines sufficient financial bones. Vaccines could well scratch the itch for years to come.

Colombia and Chile: This pair – courtesy of long-time friendly trade and political relations – are the only South American countries to make the list. Vaccine diplomacy would be a cheap and easy way to firm up ties. It would also underline the broader region that there are indeed benefits to being part of America's Friends & Family Plan.

Taiwan: The Biden administration is doubling down on every anti-China effort the Trump administration started. On the same day of the J&J-Merck announcement, the new U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, announced a broadscale legal effort to target pretty much everything China does as a matter of course: from genocide in Xinjiang to political repression in Hong Kong to forced labor to unfair state financing. The only thing I can think of that would piss Beijing off more than the United States providing Taiwan with all the vaccine it needs, would be if an American cabinet secretary accompanied the delivery (Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would be a delightfully inflammatory choice).

The European Union: Phbbbt. The EU's vaccination effort to this point has been a disaster. In part it is bad luck: Unlike the US or Canada or the UK, most of the formulas the Continental Europeans backed didn't work out. In part it is a bad approach: the EU started its negotiations with would-be manufacturers late and the Euros made price-haggling their top priority, so Europe is at the back of the line when it comes to deliveries. In part it was bad politics: the European Commission briefly – and extraordinarily stupidly – threatened border and trade relations with countries that had better vaccination planning. But mostly it is simply that Europe didn't have any health capacity at the EU level and so it is literally making up everything as it goes.

And so, the rest of the world is pulling ahead. Post-Brexit UK is nearly the best in the world with vaccinations (which is galling enough to the Europeans), but economically devastated and strategically isolated Serbia has already vaccinated 20% of its population. The top-in-class EU country – Denmark – is barely half that far.

As a Europhile, I find it disheartening not only how badly the EU is doing, but how quickly EU members of all wealth levels are losing faith. Hungary, Austria and Denmark have opted to stop waiting for the EU to get its act together and so have entered separate agreements with Russia and Israel. The Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and Poland are likely to follow similar paths.

These disconnects provide a wealth of options for the Biden administration.

It could attempt a straight up vaccines-for-NATO program in an effort to achieve with honey what Trump attempted with vinegar: getting the Europeans to take their security seriously and actually commit financial resources to their own defense.

It could trade hundreds of millions of doses to the EU in exchange for broadscale trade concessions from the entire bloc. Aerospace and agriculture are two particularly sticky logjams that could benefit from vaccine-related lubrication.

It could bypass the EU and NATO completely and instead choose to target specific strategic partners in order to lock down long-term security agreements (Italy and Spain come to mind) to the detriment of any European defense planning.

It could trade vaccines for following the American lead against all things China. Say good-bye to the EU's recent investment bilateral with Beijing?

It could provide the doses to the United Kingdom to distribute to Europe as London sees fit, an action which would reduce any bad PR to first derivative effects and give the United States a leg up in post-Brexit trade talks with the Brits.

It could toss enough vaccine into Germany's lap to inoculate the German population but allow Berlin to decide how to distribute the doses. If the doses go to Germans, the EU would politically implode; but if the Germans distribute them to Europe, the German government would fall.

Best yet, the United States is likely to have so many doses by the fourth quarter, it could attempt multiple options._




There are both Canada and Mexico etf's on the market, but Mexico's demographics are way better than Canada's: 




Versus: 




There are even leveraged Mexico etf's (ticker MEXX) but as far as I know, there isn't one for Canada.


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## over9k (6 March 2021)

over9k said:


> So the risk premium for stocks has vanished, meaning we either get armageddon from here on out* or we get a rebound. *



Currently wearing my smug face, I think I managed to call it to the day:








And the close:




Though we'll see if I've eaten my words on monday so not actually getting ahead of myself just yet. Just cautiously optimistic.


The next thing to do is determine if our previous barbell spread will continue to apply after all of this or not. Remember, we are in a recovery play now, even while all of this has been going on.

Here's how the week went, all numbers tripled as I don't bother with etf's that aren't triple levered:




You can see the same very similiar pattern we've seen on the way up for basically the whole year: Indexes following the same broad trend, but the volatility much higher. So the Nasdaq dropped the most, but also recovered the most off the lows.

However, whilst all this was going on, there's been a killing to make on the other side of it. It's all been driven by inflation fears, so anything that benefits from inflation absolutely soared. And by anything, I mean anything commodity-linked.

Here's energy (ERX), big oil (NRGU), and oil exploration (GUSH) as well as regional banks (DPST) and big banks (BNKU) for example and full disclosure, I bought all of them ages ago precisely in anticipation of all of this happening (though not nearly as suddenly):




I have sold absolutely nothing - kept all my tech holdings as well as all these energy and inflation plays. They've actually been an excellent hedge against inflation-derived losses.



If we were sure we'd turned the corner, then the obvious play like with any situation where X goes up but Y goes down, we'd take our gains from X and pump them into Y once we're confident we're at the inflection point. I'm not positive we're there yet, but the evidence suggests so - you can see the same very similiar pattern on the way down this week that we've seen on the way up for basically the whole year: Indexes following the same broad trend, but the volatility much higher. So the Nasdaq dropped the most, but also recovered the most off the lows.

The thing is that energy, oil etc are also recovery/reopening plays so the most likely thing to do from here is to actually just keep holding _everything. _

The only thing we might want do is grab some UDOW whilst the chip shortage has kept it low (it's industrials heavy and industrials can't operate without chips) and make some sweet sweet gains once that problem gets solved. Catch is, it'll meander making us nothing for quite some time before then so it's a patience play and I dunno about the rest of you but I'm not a patient person at the best of times. There's also just buying DUSL for a pure industrials play.


But the most important thing to be cognisant of is that the inflation problem (not the "everyone losing the minds in the bond market" problem, the actual inflation problem) is not going to be solved until all the supply side issues from both a lack of production and shipping logjam I've already waxed lyrical about are solved.

Here are the virus numbers which are obviously the ones which are going to dictate that. All eyes on lockdown easing from here on out:





So in summary, to quote Jack Vogel:

"Buy everything, and hold all of it".


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## over9k (6 March 2021)

More good news:




And it looks like a lot of lockdowns are being lifted this weekend: 





So, only a couple of hours after close, but the futures are all deep into the green:




At this stage, monday/a rebound is looking good.


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## Junior (6 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Alright so the real story of this year is basically that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
> 
> Everyone are carrying on about now is both inflation and as an extension of that, stagflation. We've seen serious rises in the prices of almost everything lately - all foodstuffs, all electronics/tech, building supplies, you name it. A lot of this has been attributed to the massive quantitative easing program that the fed is undertaking but that is only a small part of the story. The real story is the fact that demand has remained stubbornly high for almost everything like this but supply has been choked off by coronavirus lockdowns. Ergo, we get demand either higher or at least steady, and supply choked off.
> 
> ...




Love this. 

Can Value make a comeback? Or are low IRs really going to keep fuelling large cap Growth?


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## over9k (7 March 2021)

They aren't going to (artificially) raise rates until we see some decent inflation and once everyone get back to work and both production and shipping can increase, that will actually bring prices DOWN. Not to mention that demand for *things* will drop but services and energy demand will increase as everyone get out and do stuff (movies, theme parks, holidays, sports, skiing etc) rather than be stuck at home (you know, pent up demand and all that).

So despite all this carryon over the last week, medium term, interest rates are more likely to go DOWN rather than up. And that's not even counting the next stimulus package(s):


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## basilio (8 March 2021)

The spreading collapse of  Greensill is not going to create confidence in the economic future of many companies particularly with the long term impact of COVID. Good analysis on the ABC.  I suggest there may be some very naked swimmers out there.!!

_To finance this, Greensill bundled these debts together — just as was done in the lead up to the GFC — sliced them up into portions and sold them off to investors.

The returns were attractive in a zero interest world, and to add an element of safety to the whole thing for investors, he insured the debt bundles.

Everything went swimmingly until last year. That's when the flaws became obvious.

Instead of vast numbers of suppliers, the clients were a smallish number of large corporations. There wasn't enough diversity to spread the risk, and when a few UK companies experienced difficulties in a COVID induced crisis, the insurers had to cover the losses.

*The banks then realised some of these corporations were carrying far more debt than they'd disclosed, the insurers became twitchy about extending policies and the investors, sensing greater risk than they'd anticipated, began to back out.*

That's when the whole scheme began to unravel. A fortnight ago, one of the biggest insurers for the scheme declined to renew policies over $US4.6 billion worth of investments and the investment banks directing clients to stump up the cash pulled the plug.








						How one Aussie billionaire's fall from grace could wallop the city of Whyalla
					

Lex Greensill's rise from Bundaberg farmer to world-renowned billionaire wasn't your typical rags to riches story, but now he is desperately trying to stave off a collapse that threatens the livelihood of thousands, writes Ian Verrender.




					www.abc.net.au
				



_


----------



## over9k (8 March 2021)

Ugh. Big microsoft and government hack as well as a saudi oil facility blown up just a few hours ago. Futures flipped entirely in response. No rebound today, but give it time, this WILL reverse. 

Oil futures etc have predictably gone mental.


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2021)

basilio said:


> The spreading collapse of  Greensill is not going to create confidence in the economic future of many companies particularly with the long term impact of COVID. Good analysis on the ABC.  I suggest there may be some very naked swimmers out there.!!
> 
> _To finance this, Greensill bundled these debts together — just as was done in the lead up to the GFC — sliced them up into portions and sold them off to investors.
> 
> ...



I guess the Whyalla steelworkers will be getting worried again, just when things looked like they were coming good.








						'It's important Whyalla is not led to fail': SA government seeks answers as uncertainty hovers over steelworks financial future
					

After taking a long road back to profitability, the Whyalla steelworks is once again facing uncertain times following speculation around the financial situation of its owner, British billionaire Sanjeev Gupta.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I guess the Whyalla steelworkers will be getting worried again, just when things looked like they were coming good.




An otherwise viable and very high profile business located in a regional area that finds itself in difficulty through no fault of its own. 

Ticks every possible box for government to get involved and I expect that's what would occur.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2021)

basilio said:


> The spreading collapse of Greensill is not going to create confidence in the economic future of many companies particularly with the long term impact of COVID. Good analysis on the ABC. I suggest there may be some very naked swimmers out there.!!



Agreed - it's exactly the sort of thing that tends to happen toward the end of a major bull move. Something blows up and exposes the proverbial naked swimmers that were already there, just previously unnoticed. 

This is one to watch in my view - not so much for Greensill itself but in terms of what happens next.


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2021)

If Whyalla is allowed to go down, it shows there is no intent to bring back Australian manufacturing and most of what has been said will have been no more than rhetoric.
Time will tell.


----------



## over9k (8 March 2021)

_"Twenty-nine vessels loaded with containers were anchored Sunday outside the biggest gateway for American trade with Asia, compared with 30 a week earlier, according to officials who monitor traffic in Southern California’s San Pedro Bay. Eighteen more are scheduled to arrive over the next three days, with 10 of those set to drop anchor.

The average wait for berth space was 7.5 days, down from 7.7 days a week ago, according to the L.A. port"._

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-in-los-angeles-drags-on-bogging-down-imports





Increase in dockworkers' hours should help alleviate this a bit.


----------



## over9k (11 March 2021)

Alright the CPI data is in and it's below expectations:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

So bonds plummeted & stonks (particularly tech) screamed in response:





With oil/energy still on the move, holding our respective nerves looks like it's going to pay off here


----------



## over9k (11 March 2021)

Just in case anyone's wondering how much money is going to be borrowed this year. 

And this is before we even start on monetary stimulus. There's been a lot of talk about monetisation of debt/inflating the debt away, but so far, it's only been talk.


----------



## over9k (11 March 2021)

Lol and it seems we're getting round two of gamestop and the meme stock madness. 

Keep holding.


----------



## over9k (11 March 2021)

All looking good for stocks, and the stimulus package just passed too


----------



## jbocker (11 March 2021)

...choke on the water... ok thats dunnit..

from Prophets in Deep Purple

*some stupid with a debt gun
burned the $ to the ground
Choke on the water
No Flyers in the sky*

...sorry bit early and its not Friday... carry on.


----------



## againsthegrain (11 March 2021)

Denmark suspends use of AstraZeneca Covid vaccine over reports of blood clots

Not good news for Astra Zenica

www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/11/denmark-suspends-use-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-over-reports-of-blood-clots.html


----------



## qldfrog (12 March 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Denmark suspends use of AstraZeneca Covid vaccine over reports of blood clots
> 
> Not good news for Astra Zenica
> 
> www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/11/denmark-suspends-use-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-over-reports-of-blood-clots.html



And in my not fully informed opinion, a bad news for the expected increased numbers of guinea pigs of the ARN vaccine versions. Soon we will sée sheeps here in Oz demanding to become Pfizer lab rats.


----------



## jbocker (12 March 2021)

I wonder if it is worth the rush to have a vaccine in Australia right now. We have gone this far and I wonder about waiting a little longer and watch what the vaccine real world results are, in other countries first. I understand that the sooner we are vaccinated the sooner we can open up international borders - the economic implication. 
It is my understanding that being vaccinated does not stop you getting covid-19 but it does significantly lessen the level of sickness. It is better that we continue to be happy with the health of those that arrive into this country first.


----------



## over9k (12 March 2021)

They want the foreign students. This country is totally reliant on foreign sources of income.


----------



## over9k (12 March 2021)

Also, massive pull last night all round. I'll do a weekly summary after tonight. Meanwhile: 




Still holding ERX, GUSH, NRGU, no intention of selling anything.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 March 2021)

Hmmm


----------



## over9k (12 March 2021)

_"It is predicted that as a result of a decline in international student fee revenue Australian universities collectively will have a shortfall in discretionary income available to support research over the next five year to 2024 of between $6.4 billion to $7.6 billion. The shortfall will result in a reduction in the research force of between 5,100 to 6,100 research student and staff researcher positions, approximating some 11% of the current research workforce. The precarious situation currently faced by the sector, because of the loss of overseas student revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is underscored by the fact that for 2018 university dependency on discretionary fee revenue to support research was equal to 51% of all externally sourced research income and government research block grant funding. Some universities were committing more of their own discretionary funds to research than externally sourced research income. The impact of the pandemic means that the discretionary funds available system-wide will be reduced from the current 51% to less than 30% of external funding for 2020 and beyond...Universities spent A$12.2 billion on research in 2018. Discretionary income used to fund Australian university research that year amounted to $6 billion, of which $3.1 billion came from international student fees". 

https://theconversation.com/7-6-bil... billion,came from international student fees. _

Good. Defund the entire system and outlaw university education for non-citizens while they're at it. Maybe all these parasites can start producing a product that is actually worth buying and/or get a real job like all the rest of us.


----------



## againsthegrain (12 March 2021)

over9k said:


> _"It is predicted that as a result of a decline in international student fee revenue Australian universities collectively will have a shortfall in discretionary income available to support research over the next five year to 2024 of between $6.4 billion to $7.6 billion. The shortfall will result in a reduction in the research force of between 5,100 to 6,100 research student and staff researcher positions, approximating some 11% of the current research workforce. The precarious situation currently faced by the sector, because of the loss of overseas student revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is underscored by the fact that for 2018 university dependency on discretionary fee revenue to support research was equal to 51% of all externally sourced research income and government research block grant funding. Some universities were committing more of their own discretionary funds to research than externally sourced research income. The impact of the pandemic means that the discretionary funds available system-wide will be reduced from the current 51% to less than 30% of external funding for 2020 and beyond...Universities spent A$12.2 billion on research in 2018. Discretionary income used to fund Australian university research that year amounted to $6 billion, of which $3.1 billion came from international student fees".
> 
> https://theconversation.com/7-6-bil... billion,came from international student fees. _
> 
> Good. Defund the entire system and outlaw university education for non-citizens while they're at it. Maybe all these parasites can start producing a product that is actually worth buying and/or get a real job like all the rest of us.




Article almost brings a tear to my eye,  the question is what research do they do and produce that 
1. is so important 
2. costs so much 

The primary function of a university should be to educate local kids who then contribute to the local economy


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 March 2021)

The problem with universities is that they're another thing on the list of victims of Australia's obsession with making a quick buck at the expense of the future.

Problem is, we've done that for long enough that the future's arrived and the effects of those past actions are mounting up, hence it's harder and harder to keep the game going.


----------



## over9k (13 March 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Article almost brings a tear to my eye,  the question is what research do they do and produce that
> 1. is so important
> 2. costs so much
> 
> The primary function of a university should be to educate local kids who then contribute to the local economy



and 3: isn't yielding a return.

This was one of the hardest realisations I had growing up - that the universities, institutions which are supposed to be there to help you and should, outside of the police force, have the highest integrity of any institution in all of society, are run by absolute scumbags.

I now anticipate a titanic fight within the uni's as funding goes to whoever can wield the (probably political) power necessary to attain it rather than to where it might actually yield a return. I bet all the gender studies garbage remains whilst tech or engineering or whatever gets nuked. Mark my words, I bet it happens because the arts etc types are almost invariably the ones that end up running the uni's unless they're tech colleges like MIT (which is obviously in the USA) or something.


This is not going to result in the fat getting trimmed, in fact, they'll probably cut the meat and retain the fat. They've already done it at the teaching level (cut the local students but retained the foreign ones and thus churn out absolute garbage graduates) so why not do it with research as well?

The whole thing needs to be burnt to the ground IMO. The milquetoast stuff the federal pollies announced where they're cutting a bit out of the arts etc: https://www.studyassist.gov.au/news/job-ready-graduates-package-higher-education-reforms-0 doesn't go a tenth as far as necessary.


----------



## over9k (15 March 2021)

Alright so the madness of the past month or so clearly needs explaining. If you want the tl;dr version, it's not actually the bond market directly, it's just pure market irrationality and a bond run triggered by the texas snowstorm/not a long term thing. But here's the full (long) post of just what has sent everyone's heads spinning over the last three weeks:

The last week looks like this (all triple levered):




The last month looks like this:




And the year to date looks like this:





As you can see, everything except the dow topped out on the 16th of feb and then commenced a run of absolute madness (plummets, spikes, and everything in between) from there on out. There's been both a downtrend on average and a massive increase in volatility.

If you were to believe the talking heads on the news, there's been a huge run in the bond market and this is smashing risk stocks. Whilst this is correct, it's like usual, only half the story. What we need to understand is WHY this is going on and to put it into context.

If you were to only look at 10 year treasuries over the past month, you'd be forgiven for thinking "oh yep, big spike, classic inverse correlation with stocks as the risk premium and p/e both get whacked, exactly what you'd expect":



I've marked 1.3 for a reason, and I'll explain why in a moment.


But look at the 10 year yield over over the past year:




Didn't exactly start on the 16th of feb, did it?

So in a classic case of post-hoc analysis, all the talking heads are pointing to previous articles like the following and being all "yeah see people were concerned about this ages ago":




And then followed this up with the previous carryon about the 1.3% point. I mean, everything went mental and flipped at the nice round 1.3% point so that must have been it, right?

Well, no.

Remember that inflation fears play a huge part in bond markets. You're not going to loan money out if inflation will eat away any returns you make, are you? So if inflation is high, you're going to want your return to be above the inflation rate in order for your investment to actually be worth something by its expiry. I mean, that all makes pretty obvious sense I would have thought.

Now, there was something that triggered massive inflation fears on the 16th but it wasn't any kind of actual inflation data like CPI numbers getting released or something like that, oh no.

What happened was that a once-in-a-century weather event, a massive snowstorm (because we haven't had enough once-in-a-century events lately) absolutely smashed an enormous part of the united states' power grid in its _south, _where power-producing assets are not built for cold weather endurance because, well, it never snows there. Until it did:




It was so bad that it even got its own wikipedia pages: 
	

		
			
		

		
	




Of particular note is this one, all the political BS about renewable energy began virtually immediately but reality was that even the fossil-fuel derived power generation was smashed on account of not being built to handle the cold:




And so that all went very quiet very quickly.

But what couldn't be swept under the rug was what this did to power prices. Remember, as it shows in the wiki entry above, in texas they couldn't even import their power from other states, so power prices went stratospheric. Remember, pay close attention to the dates of everything in this post:




And _this _is what triggered the massive inflation fears. This was so bad that even _hospitals, _perhaps the only buildings actually outfitted with any kind of redundant power system (all hospitals have onsite generators precisely to keep them going in the event of a power outage) had to be evacuate.

And to be fair, can you really blame markets for getting worried about this? Texas actually has a massive and growing tech sector and is well on its way to becoming the USA's #1 tech state as companies are bailing out of california like mad so you can imagine just how concerned an awful lot of companies and investors (and therefore money) became about this.

However, like all market reactions, it was an overreaction.

Texas is the country's energy capital, both in terms of greentech and conventional power. It's by far the top U.S. state in terms of wind power generation, it is rapidly moving up the ranks for solar power, and everyone understands' that it reigns supreme in oil and natural gas.

The storm front seized up _everything._ It coated wind turbines with ice, forcing 7GW—approximately 10% of Texas’s available grid--offline. It turned associated water that often occurs as part of natural gas production to ice, shutting in half of the state's production. Oil was similarly impacted, stopping some two-thirds of Texas’s output. Between these direct issues and follow-on ones – water coolant at nuclear power plants froze, forcing shutdowns; insufficient natural gas led to fuel shortages shutting down nearly 17GW--approximately 25% of Texas’s available grid; oil and power curtailments necessitated shut-downs of the bulk of Texas's refineries leading to mass gas station closures – some seven million Texans lost power. Some for days.

Anti-Green voices were quick to condemn the wind turbine issues as proof that greentech will never work. Anti-fossil fuel voices were quick to condemn conventional fossil-fuel thermal-power generation as broken beyond repair. Both are wrong. Deliberately, stupidly, hilariously wrong. What happened is a lot more basic:

Texas doesn't normally get winter, and so isn't winterized.


But the good news is that this is actually going to be absurdly, _comically _easy to fix. Peter Zeihan explains below:

_"The technologies and equipment required to operate energy systems at temperatures below 20 degrees are not new. They have been used regularly for decades in places as far removed as Ohio, Oregon, West Virginia, Peru, Tajikistan, Chechnya, and Bosnia. They aren't technically difficult. They aren't overly expensive. What they are is usually unnecessary in areas that never have winters. You're just not going to see things like heating elements embedded in the blades of wind turbines or insulation on natural gas pipes in places like Brazil, Sicily, Vietnam…or Texas. 

The entire incident *has *dented Texas' reputation (for now) as a low-regulation, low-risk and above all else low-cost place to do business. Winterizing isn't difficult or overly expensive, but it cannot be done overnight, and it is not free. Those costs must be passed on to anyone who uses fuel or electricity, which is, well, everyone. I still believe Texas will be the U.S. state that will do the best in this rapidly deglobalizing world we are entering, but some of the shine has undoubtedly come off.

A post-mortem of the recovery process will make it very obvious which pieces of infrastructure will recover more quickly. Burst pipes must be repaired or replaced. Homes that require natural gas for heating will have to have everything inspected to prevent catastrophic follow-on fires and explosions. Coal piles that have frozen through all the way to the ground will take several days to fully thaw. But wind turbines? A little sun on the blades and they can start spinning again.

We've all assumed that the intermittent nature of greentech generation is a negative, necessitating it being backed-up and balanced-out by more reliable conventional electricity sources like natural gas burning power plants. For the most part that remains true, but this coming week Texas will demonstrate that in some circumstances wind is actually more reliable than supposedly rock-solid, non-intermittent, fully-dispatchable fossil-fuel driven power. That unexpected lesson will lodge itself into Texans' collective subconscious and color infrastructure decisions for years.

That lesson will find itself reinforced by the issue of longer-term costs.

Safeguarding wind turbines so the events of this past week can never happen again only requires some built-in heating elements or a few drone ports to manually de-ice. Once (or maybe twice) and done. But safeguarding more conventional power generation? Insulating every above-ground oil, natural gas, and water pipe in a state that's bigger than France? Building out internal storage for coal piles at coal plans? Developing natural gas storage depots rather than relying upon just-in-time fuel deliveries? Insulating the country's largest concentration of petroleum refineries? Each incremental improvement might be easy, but Texas will need to upgrade everything. The cost will easily run into the tens of billions.

But Oklahoma does this as a matter of course". _

So in summary?

It's not nearly as bad as everyone think it is. Expensive to fix yes, but not overly _difficult, _and that's the key takeaway here: Winterising everything will be expensive and annoying, but not _difficult.  _

So long term, it's a speed bump. Nothing more. But our headache in the short term is that _the markets haven't figured this out yet. _

In fact, the fears are so bad that a run has effectively been triggered on bonds and risk stocks, with 10 year treasuries continuing to scream and risk stocks (like tech) continuing to be smashed day after day after day.

We had a brief respite on thursday when the CPI data was released and inflation was actually _below _expectations and so everything flipped immediately:


----------



## over9k (15 March 2021)

And then just went back to plummeting on friday as everyone went "oh, that was _last _month's data. I bet this month's will be awful on account of that storm". Check out the orange line here (two day graph) to get an idea of what I mean:




Which of course inversely correlated with treasuries resuming their trip to the moon (week graph), as shown here:




But if this wasn't enough carryon, we've also had the meme stock madness to contend with at the same time as well. Oh yes, it's time for wallstreetbets's round two with gamestop, because we haven't had enough black swan events lately:




And here's GME against TQQQ over this period:




Please note that I've had to plot GME and TQQQ on different scales (right and left hand sides respectively) due to the GME movements being literal orders of magnitude greater than even a 3x leveraged index ETF.

As you can see, it hasn't had the effect that it did in round 1... yet.

YET.




So in summary?

Well there's a combination of utter lunacy from meme stock madness and a total head-spinning overreaction playing merry hell with the markets at the moment. But the key takeaway is that even though we might see some more madness from wallstreetbets, it's going to be temporary, and all the inflation fears coming from a belief that texas et al are going to see big spikes in power prices (and energy prices, as we all know, effect the price of _everything _on account of being a primary input just like oil is/does) are _completely _overblown.

As I've shown in several previous posts, basically _all _of the cause of _any _inflation we're seeing is a SUPPLY side issue through ships sitting at anchor or car factories being mothballed because they can't get the microchips needed to make their cars or meat plants running at 40% capacity as coronavirus runs through their entire workforce.

Both of these problems _are _going to be fixed and they won't even really take that long to do so - the northern hemisphere is well over the hill of winter, vaccines are being deployed at record rates, all texas needs to do is literally copy _exactly what has already been done in the other states,_ and virus cases are continuing to drop precipitously:




When the market is going to figure all of this out, however, is another question. If I was running some in & out plays, I'd say that when the next batch of CPI data comes in way, way, way below expectations, we'll see a HUGE move in the markets in response.

In the meantime, inflation-winning plays like energy, oil, and the banks, continue to absolutely scream as they already had momentum from reopening/recovery expectations and have just been put on steroids by inflation expectations as well:




However, with no way of actually knowing when the market is going to realise all this carryon is overblown (as I said, I'd guess it to be the next batch of inflation data but that's pure guesswork. Educated guesswork, but guesswork nonetheless) and the fact that energy and the banks have organic recovery/growth tailwinds pushing them completely irrespective of any inflation beliefs, my play from here on out is exactly what I said a few posts back:

Continue holding _everything. _


----------



## over9k (15 March 2021)

And it's looking like a choppy night tonight. Futures were all in the green with the nasdaq overwhelmingly the highest but asia's had a pretty shite day so everything's flipped to either flat or mildly negative. We'll see how much the U.S market really care about asia. Microcaps seem to be keeping their head above water and whilst being choppy like you wouldn't believe, are already back above their pre-slump high: 




So as said previously, plenty of chop to come yet.


----------



## over9k (15 March 2021)

Also, not often you get a talking head on the news that I agree with, but there was one just saying that markets are basically going to be directionless/meander (european futures have just gone green and then dragged the U.S ones up with them for example) until the fed meeting later in the week and we get some forward guidance/clarity from them. Janet yellen's already all over the news saying inflation risks are low and the market has completely overreacted. 

I completely agree with both.


----------



## over9k (15 March 2021)

"It's hard for inflation to surge when workers are readily available"

No... YOU THINK?

They even had this headline run across the banner at the literal exact same time:




And the futures, after the nasdaq was deepest in the red a few hours ago whilst asia was open, even now look like this and just keep climbing disproportionately to the nasdaq & r2k:




Amazing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 March 2021)

over9k said:


> It's not nearly as bad as everyone think it is. Expensive to fix yes, but not overly _difficult, _and that's the key takeaway here: Winterising everything will be expensive and annoying, but not _difficult._



Agreed it's dead easy to do it.

It would however have been an awful lot cheaper to have done it in the first place than to retrofit.

One effect the situation may have is that it gives more ammunition to anyone arguing that such things need to be regulated to make sure that business does indeed plan for unusual occurrences. 

It is, after all, not the first time it has occurred (so they can't use that excuse) and the last one was only 10 years ago. 

Note that I'm not arguing for or against regulation there, I'm observing that others may do so however and, broadly speaking, business isn't overly keen on being regulated especially when it's of the "spend more but don't increase prices" variety of regulation. That goes for any industry in that situation.


----------



## over9k (16 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed it's dead easy to do it.
> 
> It would however have been an awful lot cheaper to have done it in the first place than to retrofit.
> 
> ...



No doubt. But this was also a freak weather event that was not expected until long after the windmills had reached end of fatigue life etc. This one was WAY worse than the one 10 years ago no? 

They just took a gamble and got stung. The balance of probabilities were in their favour, but such is life. Not how I'd do it, but no point discussing it as we can't change any of it. The key takeaway is just to know that it's going to get fixed and markets have totally overreacted, like usual. Aka "don't panic, everything will be fine". 


Meanwhile, to give everyone an idea of just how choppy the markets are at the moment, check this out:




A day-trader's delight... If you can get it right.


----------



## over9k (16 March 2021)

So here's the day:




Will tomorrow follow this trend and we go back to normal? I have no idea about tomorrow specifically. Everyone are waiting on the next fed meeting & comments with bated breath.

I've been making a big point of just holding our respective nerves despite all this chop. Let me show you why:









The only discrepancy we have that isn't off the EXACT post-bottom trend is the dow vs the nasdaq over the past fortnight and even that looks like it's on its way to reversing.

As I've said in a lot of other posts over the past few months, there's a lot of (accelerated) long term trends driving the market at the moment. We are NOT just reverting/on our way back to the way things were before. These graphs should say a tremendous amount all on their own without any comment at all. All the chop we've seen, even with the gamestop stuff, bond madness, snowstorm, all of it has just been bouncing around and then straight back to trend exactly where things would have been otherwise.

There's only two _mild _discrepancies even now - let's see if they return back to trend just like the s&p, fangs, semiconductors etc have already shall we?


Assuming no other funny business, all five of these could be back on trend before the end of the week. Three of them already are.


----------



## over9k (18 March 2021)

So remember this post? 



over9k said:


> Vaccine intel from Peter Zeihan:
> 
> 
> _On March 2 the Biden administration announced a vaccine manufacturing partnership between two of the largest and most successful drug manufacturers in the United States: Johnson & Johnson and Merck. Less than a week previous the U.S. FDA approved J&J's vaccine for emergency use in combatting the COVID-19 virus; its formula will now be produced both in J&J and Merck facilities. (At present neither firm has announced expansion schedules or delivery volumes.)
> ...




Then there was: 






And now there is:




Zeihan with his finger on the pulse weeks ahead of the rest of the news as usual.


----------



## over9k (18 March 2021)

Just in case anyone's wondering where the chop and so forth we're seeing lately is coming from, it's literally just these two graphs playing tug-of-war with each other:





Obviously not going to make a big post about the relationship between the bond & equities market if everyone already know how they interact, but if there's any newbies out there that don't know how this all works then let me know and I'll give you a crash course/maybe add it to the duck's thread


----------



## over9k (18 March 2021)

Junior said:


> Love this.
> 
> Can Value make a comeback? Or are low IRs really going to keep fuelling large cap Growth?






over9k said:


> They aren't going to (artificially) raise rates until we see some decent inflation and once everyone get back to work and both production and shipping can increase, that will actually bring prices DOWN. Not to mention that demand for *things* will drop but services and energy demand will increase as everyone get out and do stuff (movies, theme parks, holidays, sports, skiing etc) rather than be stuck at home (you know, pent up demand and all that).
> 
> So despite all this carryon over the last week, medium term, interest rates are more likely to go DOWN rather than up. And that's not even counting the next stimulus package(s):
> 
> View attachment 121020



@Junior 




Told you


----------



## Wilham (18 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Just in case anyone's wondering where the chop and so forth we're seeing lately is coming from, it's literally just these two graphs playing tug-of-war with each other:
> 
> View attachment 121501
> View attachment 121502
> ...



Definitely interested. Even if you understand, you can usually learn something from someone else.


----------



## over9k (18 March 2021)

Wilham said:


> Definitely interested. Even if you understand, you can usually learn something from someone else.



Alright I'll get around to it as soon as I can, currently housebound with a shocking head cold so thinking isn't as easy as it normally is.

Meanwhile, some more chop:




And nasdaq futures, after running hard yesterday with the market and then into the green aftermarket, have plummeted:




And bonds thus bounced: 




10 different talking head analysts on the news give 10 different answers when queried about what they think is going to happen next, which means that nobody has the slightest clue.

It might be a good period to do some day trades, even if we have a moderate trend in either direction, the volatility we're seeing at the moment is so high that a buy on red day, sell on green day strategy is likely to make some pretty sweet gains. All we need to be sure of for that to work is that we're going to get conflicting data, which there seems to be no shortage of at the moment.

Alternatively, just hold both tech and the banks & energy and note that it'll give you an arbitrage position


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

Here's one for the maths guys, check out the correlation coefficient between 10 year bonds & the nasdaq:




Almost a perfect inverse 1 the vast majority of the time.

For those who don't know what they're looking at here, I'll explain it fully in my bonds-relationship-with-equities post, but the short version is that this is just showing how closely matched (correlated) the movements between these two things are. -1 would mean they would move in perfect opposite ways to each other and +1 would mean they move in the exact same way as each other. 0.5 would mean one's about half the other, -0.5 would mean that one's about half the other but the other way.

As you can see just by looking at the graph, they both move in very obvious opposites to each other, hence the maths showing a number very close to -1 most of the time.

However, remember that correlation is not causation - these could have nothing to do with each other and it's actually some other third thing that's effecting both of them at the same time.


I don't think that's the case here though


----------



## over9k (19 March 2021)

Aaaand everything was smashed. Talking heads are talking about a "tantrum" in the market. SO insightful. 

I'm deploying the remainder of my cash on monday.


----------



## over9k (21 March 2021)

Post 1/2:

Alright so things are obviously pretty f**ked up right now as inflation fears just keep going and therefore bond yields just keep rising. I'm an economics/geopolitics guy by trade so this stuff is my wheelhouse, so hopefully I can explain what's going on and why by the end of this post and also what we can expect to see in the future, but please, if anyone/any new guys have any questions or don't understand something I say in this post then don't hesitate to ask a question as I love this kind of stuff and teaching people. There are no stupid questions  


For those not paying attention, there's currently a titanic fight between economic growth expectations and inflation expectations. In general, economic growth raises earnings but inflation drops price/earnings ratios. So the fight is basically whether an increase in earnings can offset a reduction in the price/earnings _ratio_ enough to keep the price at least steady. The maths behind this is quite simple - if you (and I'm exaggerating to demonstrate the point) doubled your earnings but halved your price/earnings _ratio, _then your price would be exactly the same. It's the mathematical equivalent of going 2x1, divided by 2. Make sense? 

The problem we have is that fear, irrationality, and simple incorrectness can send markets spinning over particular timeframes and this is, in my opinion, what we're seeing at the moment. Remember, only half the job is figuring out what's going on in the economy - the other half is figuring out what's going on in the _markets, _which is a very different thing. 

In other words, you don't just need to know what's going on, you need to know what everyone else are thinking and why they are thinking it. Perception _is _reality in the market. Even if the market's wrong or irrational, it can stay that way far longer than you can stay solvent. The idea is to either get in on something about to rise or out on something about to drop before everyone else do - whether it should have been rising or falling at the time or not. If the market's wrong and pumps the price of something (or is going to pump the price of something) because of it, who cares, just buy it and then sell it _before they realise_ they're wrong. Conversely, sell it before they do (or just short it) and then rebuy it at a lower price before they realise it was actually something good after all. 

This is exactly what happened with roaringkitty, the gamestop guy that's made his millions - he spotted something the market was wrong about (in this case, it had been underestimated/overshorted hugely) and bet on it rising once the market realised. It did, and then the price rose. Massively. 

So, for all the budding economics students out there, what we're seeing at the moment is a classic case of how _opportunity cost _is effecting the markets. In this case, it's a very simple case of risk vs reward, and I'll explain why: 


Generally speaking, there's two main asset classes you invest in: stocks, and bonds. There's also other things like commodities but they're not typically a large part of a portfolio - we'll get to them later. 

Stocks are simply shares of a company and you're expecting to yield a return on your investment each year through your share of the company profits being paid out to you. The risk you take is that the company may not make as much money next year and so you could have made more money investing in something else. Conversely, a different investment could make more money than you expected it to, and so you again have made the incorrect decision investing in what you did rather than the other thing. Thinking about this for yourself, you can see how the cost of your investment is going to be a combination of how likely you think these things are going to be - the less confidence (more risk) you have in things going the way you think they will, the more incentive (higher the possible return) you're going to need to take that risk. This higher return on the riskier option is called a _risk premium, _and there's all kinds of both very complex and very simple calculations you can do to estimate it, but like all estimates, bad inputs results in bad outputs. 

Again, to use a very simple example, if you were looking at an investment that now has, say, only half the likelihood of paying off that it did before, you're going to want that payoff to be _at least _twice as big as it was previously. It's a very simple probability equation - getting twice the payout but only half as often results in the same amount being made. 

So what does all of this have to do with bonds? Well, to understand that, we need to understand what bonds are and how they work. Bonds are _loans. _Bonds are when you loan money to an entity (a person, a company, or a government) and they repay you at an agreed particular rate. 

Like stocks, there is an element of risk involved with bonds but it is almost always way, way, WAY lower than with stocks. 

The largest bond market in the world is U.S government debt - loaning money to the U.S government. Now, the U.S government enjoys a spectacular credit rating (risk rating). It's considered so good, so solid an investment that there is basically a 0% probability of default or to look at it another way, 0% risk for you/the market to lend the U.S government money. 

So, let's think about this from an opportunity cost perspective - if we invest in stocks then we're not investing in bonds and if we invest in bonds then we're not investing in stocks, so we have to ask ourselves which we think is the best option and why. 

Recall before how much I was talking about _risk. _If you have one asset class with zero risk (bonds) but another with at least some element of risk (stocks) then stocks are going to need to have some kind of _incentive _to take that risk. So, the way that works, is that stocks will always enjoy a higher rate of return than bonds because there's at least some probability of not getting the return whereas it is _guaranteed _with a bond. This extra return is the _risk premium _I spoke about earlier. 

So, let's just pull some numbers out of thin air to demonstrate this: Let's say that bonds, your zero risk investment, earned you 1.4%. This gives you a price floor for all other possible investments as this is the point of zero risk. 

This would mean that stocks would have to earn something above 1.4% in order to get you to take the risk of investing in a company by buying its stock. It might, for example, be 2.1% - some 50% higher than the bond rate. This gives us a risk premium of 0.7% (not factoring in anything else). 

But what happens if the returns on bonds start to go up? What if bonds increased 50% up to the 2.1% that stocks are? Well, in order to keep the risk premium of stocks we mentioned earlier, then the _rate _of return on stocks will also need to go up. 

So with a rate simply being a percentage, there's therefore only two ways this can happen: Either the company needs to make more profits and thus ups the earnings to a higher percentage of the stock price, or the stock price comes _down _until the current profit levels reach that higher _percentage _of the stock price we need to get back to our previous risk premium. 


So now that we know the primary (there's more to it than I've mentioned but what I've mentioned is the overwhelmingly single biggest factor) relationship between stocks and bonds, we can take a look at some of the data over the past few weeks and know why it looks like it does: 




As we can see, bonds (in blue) have been going up whilst the nasdaq (in orange) has been going down, which means that the market thinks that the rate of return on bonds is increasing faster than the profits for companies in the stock market are. 

Ergo, the price of stocks has to come DOWN to keep the _rate _of return higher and retain the aforementioned risk premium. 



But the 6 month graph looks very different, see how stocks were actually increasing at the same time as bond yields were before about the 17th of feb: 




This tells us that the market believed that stocks' anticipated profits were actually increasing way way faster than the bond yields were as stocks were actually going up at the same time as bonds were. 

As we can see, this all changed at roughly the 17th of feb and I'll get to that in a moment, but there's another question we first need to know the answer to before we can actually get to that: 

How do you price a risk-free investment? 

Well, it's not actually very complex on the face of it. Let me ask you, what kind of reward always follows zero risk? 

We all know the answer, it's the oldest life advice in history: _zero risk means zero reward. _

But of course, there's always more to it, because zero reward does not _necessarily _(keyword, necessarily) mean zero interest rate. 

So, what then, is an actual zero reward in these terms? 


Well, it's calculated with the _inflation rate. _Inflation is simply how much prices of *stuff* go up in a particular time period. There's several different measures of it, but the primary one used is the Consumer Price Index or CPI. 

Now let's think about this - if you stuff your money under the mattress for a year and go to spend it a year later and the price of everything is up by, say, 3%, then your money has actually _lost _3% of its value or _purchasing power _over that period, hasn't it? 

In fact, you would have been better off buying stuff with it and then selling that stuff on a year later wouldn't you? You haven't made any money doing that in real (purchasing power) terms, but at least you haven't lost anything. 

So let's take this approach to the bond market. Why would you lend someone money at say, 1%, if inflation was at 1.1%? In real terms, you'd be LOSING money. 

The answer, of course, is that you wouldn't. You would need to get at least a 1.1% return or otherwise you'd just go and buy *stuff* with your money and sell it on a year later instead. 

So it's in this way that (and again, there are other factors at play here, but we're just going to focus on this one as it's the primary/most important) we can understand that the inflation rate gives us a kind of floor on the bond rate. If inflation goes down then the bond rate can and if inflation goes up, then the bond rate has to. 

It's in this way that we can understand the zero risk-zero reward nature of bond investing. If bonds are zero risk, all we need to ask ourselves is what the point at which we get zero reward (in real terms) is. 

That point, as I've hopefully just shown, is the inflation rate. 



SO, now that we all (hopefully) have an understanding of how the bond market interacts with the stock market and inflation rate interacts with the bond market, we can start to take a better look at the data and try to figure out just what on earth has happened lately. 

Recall this graph from previously:






As you might be able to imagine, ordinarily, when two curves which usually move in opposite directions to each other aren't, then there's some big driver causing that. Prior to the 17th of feb, it was quite simple - for a variety of reasons, economic growth expectations were way, way, way outpacing inflation expectations. 

Ordinarily, you'd expect a very gradual easing of this. You'd basically just expect the two curves to start gradually diverging from one another and then just level out until something new happened to push them in one direction of the other. But that didn't happen here. They essentially just flipped on the spot and went in total opposite directions, in a massive way, incredibly quickly. 

_Obviously _something triggered this. This kind of thing does not just happen for no reason. 

The event which triggered it was the massive snowstorm that hit the united states. Snowstorms are not unusual there, but this one was a freak 100 year event that dumped several feet of snow on parts of the country which normally never see any snow at all. This would normally be an economic hit just through the drop in demand - snow everywhere means people stay inside/not doing stuff, so economic activity drops. 

But there was far more to it than that. As I posted previously (reposting here for continuity), an enormous amount of the country's electricity and oil production was taken offline due to it simply not being built to handle cold weather, and power prices for example thus went stratospheric: 




This was _bad. _The storm front seized up everything. It coated wind turbines with ice, forcing 7GW—approximately 10% of Texas’s available grid--offline. It turned associated water that often occurs as part of natural gas production to ice, shutting in half of the state's production. Oil was similarly impacted, stopping some two-thirds of Texas’s output. Between these direct issues and follow-on ones – water coolant at nuclear power plants froze, forcing shutdowns; insufficient natural gas led to fuel shortages shutting down nearly 17GW--approximately 25% of Texas’s available grid; oil and power curtailments necessitated shut-downs of the bulk of Texas's refineries leading to mass gas station closures – some seven million Texans lost power. Some for days. 

Safeguarding wind turbines so the events of this past week can never happen again only requires some built-in heating elements or a few drone ports to manually de-ice. Once (or maybe twice) and done. But safeguarding more conventional power generation? Insulating every above-ground oil, natural gas, and water pipe in a state that's bigger than France? Building out internal storage for coal piles at coal plans? Developing natural gas storage depots rather than relying upon just-in-time fuel deliveries? Insulating the country's largest concentration of petroleum refineries? Each incremental improvement might be easy, but Texas will need to upgrade everything. The cost will easily run into the tens of billions, and those costs are going to have to be passed on to the consumer. 

In other words, the price of electricity will go up. Significantly. 

_*Inflation. *_


So the market lots its collective mind. Everyone panicked thinking that this is going to increase the inflation rate massively (rather than just a little bit because all the states which do regularly see snow have already winterised their power and oil production and it is actually going to be quite easy for texas to do) and so bond prices shot up in anticipation of that increase in the inflation rate and stocks therefore dropped as we finally had a point at which the market believed that economic growth would be lower and inflation would be higher on account of the snowstorm both being very economically costly and very inflationary _at the same time. _

_*Perception is reality in the market*_

Now it's pretty obvious that I think that the market has way, way, WAY overreacted to this and it's going to be a zillion times easier to fix than they think, but that doesn't mean that the market agrees with me yet. 

But the key takeaway here is if inflation were to increase in response to this storm it would have been caused on the _supply _side because demand will be the same but supply will be more expensive on account of all the costs of winterisation needing to be covered (winterisation effectively raises the cost of producing electricity). Keep this in mind for the next section. 



So the market lost its collective mind on inflation concerns, only for the next batch of inflation data to actually be _below _expectations and therefore cause a massive flip right back in the complete opposite direction to how the market has been moving lately. Just look at how much and how quickly the market moved once the data was released: 





And here's the data itself:



As you can see, the inflation rate of all items less food and energy actually _dropped. _The reason why there's a metric with and without food & energy is because food and energy are such fundamental/important/large parts of the cost of living that one could argue that they're almost the only inflation metric which actually matter on account of their prices effecting the price of _everything else. _Everything requires energy to produce (energy as an input) including the production of food itself and this is why everyone lost their minds with the texas snowstorm - generally speaking, if energy cost moves, then the price of _everything _else moves with it. 

You can therefore see why it was so significant that energy shot up but inflation of everything else actually moved in the opposite direction - this is incredibly rare. 

But then by the next day the market realised that the winterisation of the southern grid hasn't even started yet (and the prices therefore haven't actually really been passed on to the consumer) and went right back to absolutely bricking it about future inflation numbers. 


Whilst all this was going on, the same supply-side issues that the entire world has been struggling with for over a year now have only been getting worse and worse and worse. As I demonstrated in another previous big post, shipping, for example, is now at the point of not the 12 ships backed up at anchor outside the L.A ports we saw back in november but rather, 36:







And the problem is so bad that even the suez and panama canals have become shipping chokepoints as companies diverted shipping through them to reach ports that they could (even if the over-land transport costs ended up being higher) actually unload their cargoes at: 




And the result is, unsurprisingly, a massive increase in shipping costs (so the costs of actually supplying whatever has been bought): 




*inflation. *


However, this shipping problem is double-edged because a supply choke point doesn't just mean that prices go up (meaning inflation) but it also means that companies literally cannot get (sell) their products to their end consumers, which means lost income. 

So you have upwards pressure on inflation and downwards pressure (or at least, a choke) on economic activity/growth _at the same time. _

The reason isn't complex at all: Everyone are off work sick with coronavirus and so there simply isn't enough able-bodied people in the united states or panama or wherever to actually get the ships unloaded. This is by no means unique to shipping either - any industry which requires in-person work has been absolutely ravaged by coronavirus, shipping is just the easiest demonstrable example. 

But thing to remember is that this is yet another _supply side_ problem which is both raising inflation and decreasing economic activity _simultaneously. _

So we have an enormous amount of supply side restriction in the market at the moment and at the same time, the giant 1.9 trillion stimulus package was just passed, which is expected to increase demand even further (which is, after all, the entire purpose of stimulus) at a time when supply cannot even begin to keep up as it is. Is it little wonder there are inflation concerns out there? 


So, am I concerned with inflation (and therefore stocks dropping) like the rest of the market is? 

YES. 

But my concern is only _short term_ because as I hope I've pointed out, whatever inflation we're going to see is almost entirely caused by a whole series of both supply side inflations and economic growth restrictions _at the same time, _which I'll get into in the next post. 


Post 2/2 continued below.


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## over9k (21 March 2021)

Post 2/3 as I've realised I'm going to need a third post to finish all of this: 


Graphically, we need economic activity (earnings) up and/or inflation down in order to see stocks grow. If we get both at the same time, stocks grow a LOT. 

What we currently see is a tug-of-war with inflation expectations increasing but economic growth expectations increasing as well:





And obviously, for now, inflation expectations are winning this particular war. But as I've pointed out, I think this is all going to be quite short lived because of how much of this is being caused by supply side effects of coronavirus. 

Think about this for a second - if we were to solve all of the shipping problems (for example) tomorrow, we'd see a huge supply side restriction lifted _and _a huge increase in economic growth at the same time as people can actually get the stuff they want and do so at way cheaper prices. The reason why we can't do this is because all the dockworkers, truck drivers etc etc are all off work and/or quarantined because of the bloody virus. 

If that's true (and I think it is) then the key to solving all of this is to simply get people vaccinated. It really is as simple as that. This would both allow the economy to get moving as people go out & do stuff as well as all the supply lines to get moving (and thus bring prices down) simultaneously. 

What has me concerned is that almost nobody is actually talking about this at the moment. Everyone are just pointing at bond yields running on inflation expectations, then pointing at the massive stimulus package and saying "that'll drive demand and therefore inflation higher" and at no point is anyone talking about the whole other side of this equation. 

Check out this interview with Paul Krugman (who I am generally speaking, no fan of at all) which begins at the 24 minute mark: 





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




Paul correctly points out that the last time the United States saw any kind of significant inflation like everyone are carrying on about them soon being about to get was in the oil shock of the 1970's. Aside from then, you have to go all the way back to the great depression to see anything of any real significance at all. 

And what's even more amazing is that the United States, thanks to the shale oil revolution, is now actually oil _independent _and just ticked over being a net _exporter _of oil, not importer, just before coronavirus hit: 








So not only is the security problem completely taken care of, but shale oil, thanks to technological changes like this: 




Is only becoming cheaper and cheaper and cheaper to produce by the day: 





So not only is there what appears to be a zero probability of any kind of oil shock, but there is actually _deflationary _pressure on the entire market on account of the fact that the United States just continues to figure out how to produce oil (energy) and therefore everything else cheaper and cheaper and cheaper as time goes on. 

When you combine this with the fact that the vaccine rollout _rate_ is actually _accelerating _as time goes on: 





All I'm seeing is a massive easing of the supply side restriction (inflationary pressure) along with a massive increase in economic activity at the same time as a huge _deflationary _pressure on energy (and therefore inflation) prices. 

Post continued below.


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2021)

over9k said:


> So the market lots its collective mind. Everyone panicked thinking that this is going to increase the inflation rate massively (rather than just a little bit because all the states which do regularly see snow have already winterised their power and oil production and it is actually going to be quite easy for texas to do) and so bond prices shot up in anticipation of that increase in the inflation rate and stocks therefore dropped as we finally had a point at which the market believed that economic growth would be lower and inflation would be higher on account of the snowstorm both being very economically costly and very inflationary _at the same time._




The other point the market's missing in my view is that Texas accounts for just over 10% of US electricity production and consumption (which apart from network losses are necessarily equal in a state with minimal connection to anywhere else) and about 1.6% of global electricity.

In other words almost 90% of US electricity, and 98.4% globally, is not produced or consumed in Texas. That reality ought to seriously blunt the impact of any price rise when measured at a national or international level.

Texas is extremely important with oil and gas certainly but when it comes to electricity I think the market's over-reacted. It's largely going to be a local issue there in practice not a national or international one unless it comes to the point of ongoing disruptions to the flow of oil and gas which I very much doubt.


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## over9k (21 March 2021)

The only what I might call "real" inflationary shock I can think of is in semiconductors (microchips) which is presently so bad (on account of us all buying gadgets whilst we're stuck indoors) and has brought so much of the world's supply lines of things like cars to a literal screeching halt that the yanks have declared it a national security issue: 

https://www.dlapiper.com/en/us/insi...the-semiconductor-manufacturing-supply-chain/ 

But even that is going to go away once people aren't stuck indoors any more, and ignoring that, it has such solid long term tailwinds behind it that the chip companies are raising absurd amounts of capital at record low interest rates to build massive amounts of more capacity and governments are bending over backwards to help them do it. TSMC are about to build a huge plant in Arizona for example. The company has said construction of the Arizona facility would start in 2021, with production slated to begin in 2024, producing up to 20,000 12 inch silicon wafers a month. For those of you who don't know about this kind of stuff, that is _massive: _ 






So even that issue looks like it's going to be solved. 





So unless I'm missing something here, all this fear seems to be completely overblown? 

Vaccine rollouts mean a massive easing of the supply side restriction (inflationary pressure) along with a massive increase in economic activity far faster than expected at the same time as shale oil and wells coming back online place huge short _and _long term _deflationary _pressure on energy prices (and therefore inflation). 


I feel like roaringkitty when he was analysing gamestop, all he could see was a whole heap of good stuff that the entire market obviously disagreed with him on which made him feel like he was crazy... until he made a fortune. 

This is me currently to the letter from 43.36-45.09:




So am I crazy or has the market missed something really big here?


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## againsthegrain (21 March 2021)

Thanx for taking the time to write that up, hope you don't run out of steam


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## Smurf1976 (21 March 2021)

over9k said:


> So am I crazy or has the market missed something really big here?



Pure speculation here but if anything's being missed then I'm thinking it'll relate to something blowing up.

I mean a financial blowing up that is, not a physical explosion.

If that's the case then it'll be something far more specific than commodities etc. It'll be a bank, hedge fund, government or whatever that goes kaboom! and starts the fire.

That's a very broad comment but my basic thinking is that given all that's occurred over the past 15 or so months, there's a pretty good chance that someone's been up to wrongdoing. Odds are there's fraud, dodgy accounting and so on or even things simply overlooked amidst all the chaos which will come to light as the world returns to something closer to "normal".


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## basilio (21 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Pure speculation here but if anything's being missed then I'm thinking it'll relate to something blowing up.
> 
> I mean a financial blowing up that is, not a physical explosion.
> 
> ...



Check out Turkey as a detonator. Just sacked the Reserve Bank Governor.

On the better news front the US is doing very well on vaccinating it's population









						US reaches 100m Covid vaccine milestone six weeks early as Fauci urges vigilance – as it happened
					

Biden’s Covid coordinator says US administered 100m vaccine shots in just 58 days – get all the latest politics news




					www.theguardian.com


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## moXJO (22 March 2021)

CLO's ?

Is debt a problem in a 0% interest world?

There are a lot of possible triggers. But waiting around for the end to come means missing out on all the gains in the meanwhile. 
I feel bearish and that everything is overpriced. But I'm not fighting the Fed, or the above that 9k outlined.


Is Schiller's PE even relevant anymore?

I think I'll stick to meme stocks and crypto. At least I get the joke with those two. Regular markets humour goes over my head.


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## qldfrog (22 March 2021)

moXJO said:


> CLO's ?
> 
> Is debt a problem in a 0% interest world?
> 
> ...



On another thread,there was mention of intrinsic value for stocks. ROL!!!
When you look at Zoom, Tesla???
Fully agree these will have to come down to earth one day but for the time being, as @moXJO  says: go for narrative and meme stocks if they trend up.


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## over9k (22 March 2021)

Just had another thought: It's younger/more able bodied people that do all the producing/fixing/unloading/delivering etc of everything and it's young able bodied people that are last on the vaccine rollout list, so we may see a significant pickup in demand from baby boomers wanting to caravan and so forth quite some time before supply can actually catch up. 

Hmm.


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## over9k (22 March 2021)

And this just came across the news: 




My ears are burning >_>


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## moXJO (22 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Just had another thought: It's younger/more able bodied people that do all the producing/fixing/unloading/delivering etc of everything and it's young able bodied people that are last on the vaccine rollout list, so we may see a significant pickup in demand from baby boomers wanting to caravan and so forth quite some time before supply can actually catch up.
> 
> Hmm.



Everything you have mentioned rings true. It's hard to see the downside given everything  that's about to happen.

What's your thoughts on prices though?
For me, everything looks expensive.


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## over9k (23 March 2021)

Alright it was a nice rebound today but you'll see that absolutely everything started selling off about an hour before close, and it had no correlation with 10 year yields at all: 




Translation: The market still has some serious jitters and thus we're unlikely to see a rebound back up to our previous high at the same rate. It will instead be a slow grind. 

Classic case of taking the lift down but the stairs up.


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## over9k (24 March 2021)

Linus with a fantastic breakdown of just what's gone on in the semiconductor space. Couldn't have said it better myself


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## over9k (24 March 2021)

Here's Powell & Yellen's hearing: 

 

It's obviously a total snoozefest so we can just go straight to the news articles from the poor journalists that had to watch it & then summarise it and the only noteworthy thing was that Powell just flatly said that he doesn't expect inflation to be large, nor persistent: 









						Yellen says post-crisis plans will move to infrastructure, taxes
					

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday the U.S. economy remains in crisis from the pandemic even as she defended developing plans for future tax increases to pay for new public investments.




					www.reuters.com


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## over9k (24 March 2021)

Apparently this has been the fastest bull-bear market flip since the .com bust.


"Maybe the market might have gotten a bit ahead of itself when pricing in the recovery trade"


Nah, you think?


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## over9k (24 March 2021)

And now a container ship has run aground in the suez canal. Let's see how long it takes them to clear it when all the staff, tug boat drivers etc are all off sick with the virus shall we? 













						Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship
					

A ship the length of four football pitches is wedged across one of the world's busiest trade routes.



					www.bbc.com


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## moXJO (24 March 2021)

over9k said:


> And now a container ship has run aground in the suez canal. Let's see how long it takes them to clear it when all the staff, tug boat drivers etc are all off sick with the virus shall we?
> 
> View attachment 121806
> View attachment 121805
> ...



How the hell did they manage that.


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## over9k (24 March 2021)

Good question. Exhaustion from overwork on account of being the only people available because everyone else has the virus? 

Working whilst sick WITH the virus? 

We'll soon find out.


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## moXJO (24 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Good question. Exhaustion from overwork on account of being the only people available because everyone else has the virus?
> 
> Working whilst sick WITH the virus?
> 
> We'll soon find out.



Captain Schettino wasn't piloting?


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## over9k (24 March 2021)

We'll find out soon enough.


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## wabullfrog (24 March 2021)

over9k said:


> And now a container ship has run aground in the suez canal. Let's see how long it takes them to clear it when all the staff, tug boat drivers etc are all off sick with the virus shall we?
> 
> View attachment 121806
> 
> ...




Going to take a while to free it if they are relying on the single excavator at the bow.


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## moXJO (24 March 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> Going to take a while to free it if they are relying on the single excavator at the bow.



'Bob's excavations' came in with the cheapest quote. 

Your eyesight is insane to pick that up. Or your monitor is to big.


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## moXJO (25 March 2021)

It gets even better


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## over9k (25 March 2021)

Apparently they had some kind of electrical/control system onboard fail whilst in the canal. Reports are saying at least two days to free it.

Here's the last 6 weeks of the r2k to get an idea of the churn in the markets at the moment:




vs wider context:





Will it return to trend like it did after the last huge slump? I have NO idea. It's not like it's correlated with treasury yields or inflation or mercury being in retrograde or anything that we can at least attempt to predict.

I'm kind of tempted to do a two grand challenge where I literally just buy on red days and sell on green days and that's it. Just see if it does any good.


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## sptrawler (25 March 2021)

The latest on the cargo ship, giving the Suez a wedgy.




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 March 2021)

When the Suez Canal was deepened in 2009, it became possible for  some *capesize *ships to transit the canal and so changed categories

Ships in this class are bulk carriers, usually transporting coal, ore and other commodity raw materials.  The term _capesize_ is not applied to tankers.  The average size of a capesize bulker is around 156,000 DWT, although larger ships (normally dedicated to ore transportation) have been built, up to 400,000 DWT.  The large dimensions and deep drafts of such vessels mean that only the largest deep-water terminals can accommodate them.

......

_so, the one, a vessel loaded with containers not bulk commodities, blocking Suez, *Ever Given, *is 400 metres long and 59 metres wide, and at 224,000 DWT must be right on the limit. ._


----------



## againsthegrain (25 March 2021)

> I'm kind of tempted to do a two grand challenge where I literally just buy on red days and sell on green days and that's it. Just see if it does any good.




If you do it on asx and post your entry and exits close to real time id shadow that for a punt


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## over9k (25 March 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> If you do it on asx and post your entry and exits close to real time id shadow that for a punt



I was thinking of using TQQQ with the nasdaq as tech's the most volatile at the moment but we could do it with GEAR on the asx too. 

Volatility is key with a degen trade like this so we really need to target the most volatile.


----------



## over9k (25 March 2021)

And now they're carrying on about how energy costs are the single biggest driver of inflation and the oil price is the single most significant energy price and thus the only way to see any kind of sustainable/long term inflation trend would be if the oil price kept increasing, which as I explained in this post:


over9k said:


> Post 2/3 as I've realised I'm going to need a third post to finish all of this:
> 
> 
> Graphically, we need economic activity (earnings) up and/or inflation down in order to see stocks grow. If we get both at the same time, stocks grow a LOT.
> ...



Simply isn't possible. 


I'm starting to wonder if these people really are market making or are instead actually just genuinely incompetent.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 March 2021)

still stuck




_brought to you by "Belt and Road Initiatives" in collaboration with Trans Siberian Railways._


----------



## over9k (26 March 2021)

Inb4 the virus going through all the recovery teams and several weeks being added.


----------



## over9k (27 March 2021)

Alright so there's a fair bit to cover for this week so couple of longer posts ahead.

Here's the week:




Couple of things to note:

Same/similiar path followed by everything except FNGU on friday (more about this in a bit) and a huge, like HUGE uptick right at the end for absolutely everything.

Here's the day specifically:



Notice how everything, absolutely _everything _just took off at about 2.50pm and screamed right up until the close?

The fact that absolutely everything moved in such a massive way in such a coordinated fashion tells me that something unusual went on. I suspect that, when you look at how it was coming out of a dip, this was a major institution making a pretty serious cash deployment (dip buy). The whole thing looks suspicious as hell and short of some major news being announced right at that moment like the fed chair speaking (and I'm not aware of anything) then there's some kind of f*ckery afoot.

Now you probably noticed on the previous graph that a lot of stuff is down _on the week _but there's far more to the last few weeks that meets the eye IMHO.

Take a look:









Remember before how I was saying that tech was being smashed but banks, energy, and industrials have been screaming?

Notice how the dow (industrials heavy) is off long term trend in the same way that the nasdaq is to the inverse, but the S&P (which is banks & energy-heavy) is virtually right on its long term trend? Same with semiconductors?

Well we all know that we've had treasury yields playing merry hell with things but what we've also forgotten is the U.S vs China spat and the fact that China itself has been cracking down on its own big tech and big companies, so with FNGU being 20% alibaba and baidu, we can see how this has been hit hugely disproportionally to everything else.

The reason why I bring this up is because there's several macro factors effecting the market and one of them looks like it might actually have finally hit its bottom:

_Treasury yields _




But not only are treasury yields finally on the downturn, but Biden's doubled his target for deployed vaccinations within his first hundred days (so the vaccine supply has increased twofold):




And so even with the big spike we saw at the end of trading, futures are deep, deep, DEEP into the green:




Now I don't want to say that these are the only reasons why the market seems to have changed trajectory, the spike in everything was too sudden and too correlated for there not to be something afoot, but it's clear that someone out there knows something I don't at the moment and bought up big just before close so they could get in before monday.

To get an idea of how bad the bond market rout has been, here's the cliff notes:




So with all that in mind, I'll talk about what I'm thinking my play will be from here on out next.


----------



## over9k (27 March 2021)

Right so the other factor at play outside of treasury yields and vaccine rollouts (and with them, economic growth expectations) is the U.S-China trade war. Biden's been about three times as hawkish on China and done it about three times as quickly as anyone was expecting:





And so anything to do with China has basically just been absolutely smashed lately by it. When you combine that with the treasury yields hitting risk assets (i.e tech) you can see how the absolute worst place to have been would be Chinese technology companies, and, well, here's the results:




HOWEVER...

The market does seem to have kind of found a bottom by now. Take a look at micro (TNA) mid (MIDU) and mega (FNGU) caps lately. You can see how our previous barbell spread of micro & mega were both beating midcaps, but take a look at things since the snowstorm, which I've marked here:





Midcaps have actually managed to keep their head above water (just) over this time period, but it's when we zoom out that we can get a bit more context:




As you can see, they're right on a slump at the moment and have also spent the entire post-presidential-election-period trading in this beautiful little channel I've shown here and are in fact right on the support point _right now. _

Other names which were smashed in the wake of the snowstorm, like TAN, appear like they might have also found a bottom:




And AIRBNB, the quintessential reopening trade, seems to have developed a nice range post-snowstorm as well:




So what I'm saying here is that whilst tech has been smashed lately, it does actually appear that it has finally found a bottom and looks primed for a rebound, but along with that, we also have some quiet achievers and pretty clear patterns that have developed and are currently sitting RIGHT on their support levels and are a reopening play.

In short, BOTH appear to be quite good bets at this point in time - tech primed for a rebound, and the things which weren't smashed to continue their slow but steady climb and in beautiful patterns right where we want them to be for some cheeky in & out plays. I didn't deploy my cash on monday like I was going to but I sure am now and MIDU will be my bet so I'll keep everyone updated on it.


The only thing left is the political environment of china vs usa and that's only going to deteriorate further (the only question being the rate at which it does) and so it's probably time to cut your losses/chinese tech exposure if you haven't already. This was always going to happen and the plan was obviously to bail out before things went pear shaped but they've done so way faster than anyone expected so there's really nothing to do there except take it on the chin & move on as everyone in the region including the USA are already way ahead of schedule manoeuvring to counter china:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/22/national/south-korea-japan-military-cooperation/









						The South Korea-US 2+2 Talks: Who Came Out Ahead?
					

While the two sides were careful to avoid open disagreement, there are clear areas of tensions, from approaches to China and North Korea to alliance issues involving Japan.



					thediplomat.com
				




https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/In...d-in-new-Cold-War-Defense-Ministry-think-tank

So even in a great growth industry like asian tech, automation etc there's some major, major, major political/stability risk there now. 



The bottom line is that we're very much in the home stretch of finishing the virus off (and doing so way faster than expected) and so everyone are now already planning for the post-virus environment and thus that (those plans/what they are up to) is what you need to pay attention to now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 March 2021)

over9k said:


> The bottom line is that we're very much in the home stretch of finishing the virus off



Something I've noticed is that the issue is being rapidly "faded" in terms of media, government etc. It's one of those situations where it's just step by step but it's happening. 

First the local supermarket removed the wipes at the entrance for cleaning trolley handles etc with.

Then the COVID sign-in book was moved to a location where they know basically nobody will sign it. Classic example of still having something in case anyone asks where it is but knowing full well that it's been mostly done away with in practice.

Go to Bunnings and there's still some signs up about social distancing but everything else COVID related is gone.

The local council is having a public meeting. The subject's irrelevant and has nothing to do with the pandemic but point is, they're back to doing such things. 

Schools are back to having fairs and things like that.

Etc.

Just subtle things like that. Nobody seems to have gone around with the intent of removing all evidence that the pandemic ever occurred but it's happening, all the things related to it are one by one being taken down or otherwise disappearing in practice.


----------



## over9k (27 March 2021)

Dunno what state you're in smurf but outside of vic life's kind of largely been as usual for quite a while now. About the only things still remaining are social distancing limits putting caps on sports events and that kind of thing. Other than that, if you didn't know better, you wouldn't know anything was happening. 

The other thing is that the news used to be almost nothing but the virus but it's almost an afterthought now - it's everything else and then the virus is just stuck on the end like "Oh yeah we still have this thing in the meantime". 

Virus data is an afterthought and whatever it is, it doesn't seem to change anything any more. About the only thing which is consistently getting hammered is semiconductors (but that's a demand side increase not a supply side choke) and shipping (because there's nobody to unload the bloody things). 

The moment that stevedores, truck drivers etc etc are all vaccinated the world's metaphorical "pipes" will be unblocked and it'll be full steam ahead (pardon the pun). 

In fact, this suez canal blockage might actually give them the exact breather they need to catch up to the backlog already at anchor at the ports.


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I've noticed is that the issue is being rapidly "faded" in terms of media, government etc. It's one of those situations where it's just step by step but it's happening.
> 
> First the local supermarket removed the wipes at the entrance for cleaning trolley handles etc with.
> 
> ...



Yes, we have decided it is over.as we had decided it was an actual sizeable thread to mankind.Sadly for Australia, this is bad timing with winter coming down south,  it could spread back at any time as we enter the flu season.
After wiping up fear and hysteria for a year, we are at the risk of unwanted public  reactions when the next flu/covid variation starts killing the weakests among us as it has done year after year, with various level of "efficiency".
.Another reason to be very careful on the oz market specifically.y
You can not die twice so US, Europe, Brazil will be ok, vaccination or not. We have not that luxury.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Dunno what state you're in smurf but outside of vic life's kind of largely been as usual for quite a while now.



SA.

Life’s pretty normal but taking supermarkets as an example, at the height of the pandemic it was a government-mandated sign with a QR code at the entrance, a paper form for anyone without a mobile, wipes to clean the trolley handles with, hand sanitizer, signs everywhere and lines marked with tape on the ground to indicate required social distancing. Plus plastic screens around checkouts.

Looking around the shops, nobody's intentionally removed it all in one go but I'd describe it as fading. Slowly but surely that stuff's going away. The QR code's still there, the checkout screens are still there and there's still some fading tape on the floor but overall the whole thing is far less visible than it was previously. Fewer signs, nobody's wearing masks (can't recall the last time I actually saw anyone in public with a mask, that idea's gone completely around here at least), etc. It's still there but it's fading.

It's much like what happens to an obsolete technology. There was no one moment when everyone got rid of them, but I really can't recall the last time I saw anyone using a film camera for example. One by one everyone went digital until a point where film was effectively obsolete.

All the COVID-related stuff seems to be much like that. No grand dismantling, just one by one it's being wound back and disappearing. You can just walk straight into Bunnings now and last time I went there I didn't even spot any mention of the pandemic. At the height of it, it was socially distanced queueing up outside the shop with limited numbers inside and so on.

Which means:



qldfrog said:


> Sadly for Australia, this is bad timing with winter coming down south, it could spread back at any time as we enter the flu season.




Is a very real concern in my view.

An outbreak and a renewed lockdown, or spike in deaths, could get "interesting" in terms of consequences in Australia yes. I'm not predicting it will necessarily happen, but I think it would come as quite a shock to many if it did since we do seem to have counted our chickens before they've hatched.

A vaccine's been developed. That's nice but, and this is the bit everyone seems to be forgetting, most people haven't received it yet and they won't until we're well into or past winter. 

I'm not forecasting disaster but I do think it's possible. Chance that we have another major outbreak isn't zero.


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## qldfrog (28 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> SA.
> 
> Life’s pretty normal but taking supermarkets as an example, at the height of the pandemic it was a government-mandated sign with a QR code at the entrance, a paper form for anyone without a mobile, wipes to clean the trolley handles with, hand sanitizer, signs everywhere and lines marked with tape on the ground to indicate required social distancing. Plus plastic screens around checkouts.
> 
> ...



And vaccines do not prevent contagion, at best they lessen consequences which were really mild for most.so there is no interest just risk for anyone below 60 or more unless already pretty sick.so we could ultimately get our first wave..with casualties vacv9nes or not


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## qldfrog (29 March 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> SA.
> 
> Life’s pretty normal but taking supermarkets as an example, at the height of the pandemic it was a government-mandated sign with a QR code at the entrance, a paper form for anyone without a mobile, wipes to clean the trolley handles with, hand sanitizer, signs everywhere and lines marked with tape on the ground to indicate required social distancing. Plus plastic screens around checkouts.
> 
> ...



We did not have to wait for long here in qld 🙄, was servicing car and in the time it took to change the tires, the shopping center moved to mask on mode for a good 30pc of people there and many retailers, and the queue at woolies expanded.
And we are not in li6ck down yet here on the sunny coast


----------



## over9k (31 March 2021)

Well worth a listen from 1.55, blackrock are currently running record levels of cash on account of the total uncertainty (utter bull****) expected to continue into the future. 

So in other words, lots of chop to trade from here on out.


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## over9k (6 April 2021)

over9k said:


> Just in case anyone's wondering where the chop and so forth we're seeing lately is coming from, it's literally just these two graphs playing tug-of-war with each other:
> 
> View attachment 121501
> View attachment 121502
> ...



Jobs report much better than expected: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm




(so almost 50% better than expected)

So the first graph is winning.







Inverse correlation with treasuries is now completely busted:




And then the last week:





Here's how the the four major indices have looked since the feb 17 crash:




You can see how big tech & microcaps were smashed the hardest but also rebounded the most in the last few days on the good economic data.

Here's how all the major sectors look over the same time period:




You can see how the big banks are almost perfectly inversely correlated with the fangs, giving us an excellent hedge and holding both evenly puts you at about net breakeven since the plunge.

However, whilst the dow has been the best place to be over the past 6ish weeks, running the graphs out longer term tells a very different story:




So yeah. Don't sell the banks.


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## basilio (15 April 2021)

I think the economic consequences  of the loss of hundreds of thousands of overseas students in Vic is just beginning. From my personal contacts I have already heard that Melb Uni is considering laying 500 plus staff because of the lack of students. I'm also aware that businesses in hospitality are unable to find workers. Essentially O/S students were underpinning these industries - and always at very cheap wages.

On the larger scale I can't see how general retail trade in Victoria will cope with losing hundreds of thousands of customers . This will be particularly the case for small cafes in the city and close to Unis. Likewise there will be tens of thousands of  student apartments left empty . I suspect most of these owned by individual investors who have bought them through the large development companies that built them in teh first place.









						'I didn't realise how much we relied on backpackers': Employers struggle to find staff as unemployment drops
					

The unemployment rate continues to fall, with another 70,700 jobs added in March, according to official estimates.




					www.abc.net.au


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## sptrawler (15 April 2021)

basilio said:


> On the larger scale I can't see how general retail trade in Victoria will cope with losing hundreds of thousands of customers . This will be particularly the case for small cafes in the city and close to Unis. Likewise there will be tens of thousands of  student apartments left empty . I suspect most of these owned by individual investors who have bought them through the large development companies that built them in teh first place.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well unfortunately the bright side is, all those businesses that everyone has been complaining about for exploiting staff, are probably now out of business.
So there is always a light, even in the most gloomiest of times. 🥺


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## over9k (15 April 2021)

basilio said:


> I think the economic consequences  of the loss of hundreds of thousands of overseas students in Vic is just beginning. From my personal contacts I have already heard that Melb Uni is considering laying 500 plus staff because of the lack of students. I'm also aware that businesses in hospitality are unable to find workers. Essentially O/S students were underpinning these industries - and always at very cheap wages.
> 
> On the larger scale I can't see how general retail trade in Victoria will cope with losing hundreds of thousands of customers . This will be particularly the case for small cafes in the city and close to Unis. Likewise there will be tens of thousands of  student apartments left empty . I suspect most of these owned by individual investors who have bought them through the large development companies that built them in teh first place.
> 
> ...



So excellent news all round then?


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## basilio (16 April 2021)

over9k said:


> So excellent news all round then?



Nah just a scratch really.


----------



## bk1 (16 April 2021)

Rubbish, widen your field of view..

https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/the-markets.html : Reports

Job bonanza
Consumer confidence strongest since 2010
Business conditions hit record high


----------



## qldfrog (16 April 2021)

bk1 said:


> Rubbish, widen your field of view..
> 
> https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/the-markets.html : Reports
> 
> ...



*Consumer confidence strongest since 2010*
You all know my high skepticism of the so called Covid vaccines, I wonder what that confidence will become when people will realise that the Astrazeneca vaccine we are supposed to ..one day..make here and use is actually 
NOT working against the south african and some UK trends.
So far ,people focus on the clot issues..which scientifically is not a big deal in term of risk vs benefit *if you are at risk with covid*..aka older.The vaccine makes sense then...as long as it works
I suspect that consumer confidence might start going down once people realize this vaccine is not the final answer
Months ago, I was of the opinion that as per historic experiences in the last 40y of research, a vaccine could not be developed against a coronavirus..as per common cold, and for covid as per HIV
I am afraid we will probably have to take the astra zeneca shot as we were doing for the flu vaccine for year: reducing risk but nowhere near as effective as a polio or tetanus vaccine.
So that let us with the mRNA large scale experiment, and while there is probably not much risk getting it at 80+, I know I will abstain for the time being .
So either the optimism crashes (and so the market?) or the scare tactic from the government will have to be tuned down, and some people will die from Covid even if vaccinated.
No economic disaster actually as the % are actually very low and most often associated to already existing diseases: dying with Covid or dying from Covid?
 But once you raise a fear, the genie is out of the bottle and I am not sure it will be easy for the government to  control it back.
I think what* we need to check is the number of astrazeneca- SA/Brazilian mutation effectiveness articles on the popular australian media*, any surge and we could see a fall in confidence and tightening of the purse, and obviously some hysteric reactions from some premiers...

At least , but for a few reelection plays here, the government has not been using this too much to take control whereas some European countries are turning in de facto dictatorships.


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## moXJO (16 April 2021)

Everyone has a pocketful of cash and nothing to spend it on because shipping is still sht.


----------



## over9k (17 April 2021)

Here's a great little piece by the wall st journal on the shipping situation: 

 


(also, haven't forgotten about this thread, just busy renovating one house and moving another)


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## moXJO (17 April 2021)

Hobby farms, backyard zoos and other family friendly attractions are having their time again. It's a return to the 70s-80s.


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## over9k (21 April 2021)

Ok so markets have taken a bit of a beating lately on account of all these vaccine blood clot scares etc but IMHO, it's all kind of overblown.

The economic data has actually been phenomenal lately:











And all the reopening indicators like stay at home stocks, energy, oil, flight numbers etc are all fantastic:





In fact the economic data has been so good that it's actually been inflation/overheating fears that have been giving markets the jitters, but as we can see, even that is all in the rear view mirror now (i.e it was temporary just like I said it was going to be):


----------



## over9k (21 April 2021)

Even powell was all "yeah we want to see sustained inflation and we aren't going to be on account of this just being a supply side issue" (just like I've been saying all along):






And so we get stuff like this:




playing tug-of-war with this:




So really, we're about at a peak that we're going to bounce around at for a while as everyone bicker about whether the market's gotten ahead of itself or not, and so to be honest, this screencap really says everything:




In short, the play is now to trade chop, so just hold about a third in things like banks which run on inflation etc fears, a third in tech which runs on the complete opposite, and a third in the reopening plays.

All you need to do is hold the reopening stuff/don't touch it and then buy/sell the banks and move into tech (or vice-versa) whenever something happens that makes one run and the other plummet. They both move in opposite directions to each other and we can be confident of a fair bit of chop so all you have to do is sell A and buy B on one day and then sell B and buy A on another, e.g:




There are obviously plenty of other examples, but you get the idea. Look at just how close to vertical/close in time (inversely correlated) these gaps are.



It really is that simple.


----------



## over9k (21 April 2021)

Oh and just in case it wasn't obvious, I should point out that if you're a newbie not confident bouncing your positions back & forth between the two, you can see how just simply holding onto both and doing nothing would have you WELL into the green anyways. That should not be overlooked


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## over9k (21 April 2021)

On a completely unrelated note, I'm sorry I've been so slack updating this thread lately guys. I've moved one house, renovated another, and spent a fortnight bedridden sick with the mother of all head colds so I've just been either absolutely flat out or half dead for the last month or so.


----------



## Wilham (21 April 2021)

over9k said:


> On a completely unrelated note, I'm sorry I've been so slack updating this thread lately guys. I've moved one house, renovated another, and spent a fortnight bedridden sick with the mother of all head colds so I've just been either absolutely flat out or half dead for the last month or so.



Look after yourself, markets aren't going anywhere.


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## over9k (21 April 2021)

Here's the cliff notes of what's going on at the moment, it's no longer interest rates vs growth, it's virus numbers vs growth: 




Some countries like the USA are fine on account of the vaccine rollout but india, brazil etc are getting absolutely pounded:





You can see how the yanks are beating the virus with their vaccine rollout (otherwise the curve would look more like india's) whereas india is getting smashed. 

Globally, numbers are rising in quite a few countries, india just being the worst. As I pointed out earlier, the economic data has been waaaay better than expected, with the question now being how much global supply lines etc are going to be hit again. Microchips, basically the only thing the USA relies on an external source for in any meaningful capacity, are not under threat (even though there's the shortage, the world's semiconductor manufacturers are actually running at maximum capacity) and so we aren't going to see way more car factories getting mothballed etc.  

As horrible as it is, there's a lot of countries for which their lockdowns and/or time off work sick doesn't actually make much _economic _difference.

If Taiwan shut down? Big problem. 

Brazil or India? Not so much.


----------



## over9k (22 April 2021)




----------



## Smurf1976 (22 April 2021)

Looking at longer term "real economy" changes, as distinct from the financial markets, I'm noticing what seems to be a broad pushback against things which have been common over the past 20+ years and lamented by many during that period.

*Leaving politics out of it and looking at the "what's happening" aspect*:

Pushback against China: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...-deal-with-china-torn-up-20210421-p57l9q.html



> The Australian government has torn up Victoria’s controversial Belt and Road agreement with the China, saying it falls foul of the country’s national interest




A push toward local production in Australia seems to be gathering pace with all sides of politics at least somewhat backing the idea: https://www.theage.com.au/national/...oon-be-made-in-melbourne-20210421-p57kzc.html



> Funding of $50 million should be enough to establish serious mRNA vaccine manufacturing in Melbourne






> Prime Minister Scott Morrison backed Victoria’s decision to invest in developing an mRNA facility.




Meanwhile seemingly less serious economically but nonetheless another indication of a pushback against the thinking of the past 20 years: https://www.theage.com.au/national/...se-pollution-complainers-20210421-p57l0t.html



> Live music venues in Melbourne’s inner south could get council backing to keep the volume pumping, even if the blow-ins next door kick up a fuss about sleepless nights.




So we're pushing back against China, pushing back against those who move to a place they don't like and then whinge about it and we're trying to bring at least some return of local production.

The specifics are just examples though, there seem to be quite a few signs of the same broad thinking emerging that change is needed and that returning to what prevailed prior to the pandemic really isn't the way forward. It seems to have acted as a bit of a catalyst there.

Climate change and electric cars is another one that seems to have gained a huge push. Another is that the 1980's and 90's "government debt is bad" thinking seems to have abruptly reversed and not just in Australia.

I intend all that as an economic comment far more than a political one. Basic thinking being that there's a turning point here beyond the pandemic itself in much the same way that the 1970's - early 80's saw turning points on pretty much everything economic including the role of governments which then remained essentially unchanged through to 2020. If that is indeed the case then as with the 70's, the full implications will take years to become apparent to the masses.


----------



## qldfrog (22 April 2021)

So 18 month after covid arrived, how many of the mask used are NOT made in China?
How many extra icu beds do we have?
Si if covid with a mortality rate negligeable, well below 1pc is NOT historically high, can put us to our knees yet is not enough to add to our response capabilities..and this is the whole west, not only Australia, what is the hope for either domestic production or the next Ebola
Locally on the sunshine coast, strong push for local food etc , great .but local strawberry vs victorian ones etc..we are not replacing imports...and last time i looked the coles and woolies corn cans were still using o/s corn
As for mr @Smurf1976  news extract:
50 millions to enable mRNA local production?
You will not build a warehouse for that cost here,let alone finding the staff for it or the machinery
In 2021 australia, $50m is a pedestrian bridge or 2, or an overpass...i wish i was kidding/. exaggerating
A lot of talking, no action.facade dressing


----------



## qldfrog (22 April 2021)

qldfrog said:


> So 18 month after covid arrived, how many of the mask used are NOT made in China?
> How many extra icu beds do we have?
> Si if covid with a mortality rate negligeable, well below 1pc is NOT historically high, can put us to our knees yet is not enough to add to our response capabilities..and this is the whole west, not only Australia, what is the hope for either domestic production or the next Ebola
> Locally on the sunshine coast, strong push for local food etc , great .but local strawberry vs victorian ones etc..we are not replacing imports...and last time i looked the coles and woolies corn cans were still using o/s corn
> ...



But not all negative, we can now say what Pauline was saying 20y ago and be mainstream left..the irony...


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 April 2021)

qldfrog said:


> As for mr @Smurf1976 news extract:
> 50 millions to enable mRNA local production?
> You will not build a warehouse for that cost here,let alone finding the staff for it or the machinery
> In 2021 australia, $50m is a pedestrian bridge or 2, or an overpass...i wish i was kidding/. exaggerating
> A lot of talking, no action.facade dressing



I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.

These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind that to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.

Much like Australian state politicians generally didn't acknowledge any decline of manufacturing until well into the 1990's. Prior to that, they were still going to elections talking up the prospects of someone building a factory - never mind that the sector had been declining for 20 years by that point, it took a very long time to sink in.

Or for a less serious example, Rock music peaked in 1983 and outright fell off the cliff after 1989. Factually correct from a commercial perspective as a % of music sales but I expect there'd be more than a few who took the next 20 years to realise that such a fundamental shift had taken place. Most would've been thinking in terms of individual bands having passed their peak, not grasping that the entire genre was headed to oblivion so far as the mainstream is concerned. That's US data but would be much the same in Australia.

I may well be wrong but I do get a definite impression that a turning point has occurred of that nature. Won't be noticeable for a while but the political language does seem to have shifted away from the whole 1970's - 2019 thinking of "free trade", "there is no such thing as society", "government debt is always bad" and so on and toward "need to make things here" and "need to focus on lifestyle not just money" and "government needs to invest" etc. That's a profound change that, if continued, will ripple through pretty much everything over time just as the changes in the 70's - 80's did.

The examples I've given are just to illustrate really, it's the sentiment I'm looking at and pondering where that leads more broadly?

*Noted that's of zero relevance to traders so apologies to those in that group*. It may have relevance to longer term investment though, that's my thinking here.

One of the more obvious implications is inflation. Government borrows heavily and inflates it away meanwhile a shift of at least some production to developed countries with higher production costs. The ideas in the US of increasing tax rates are another one that goes against the paradigm of recent decades.

Individually each can be dismissed, but not if there's a pattern forming.


----------



## qldfrog (22 April 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.
> 
> These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind that to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.
> 
> ...



The pattern forming is not new: socialism a la european due to leftist teachers and media,  and an aging population..money is not everything..sharing, etc as long as you can feed yourselves properly.
My guess is we are in for a serious shock, and real, not Covid style or climate change.the world population is still ticking with roughly 50% of the world now hating the west..and i mean the essence of the west: muslim/china in my mind
For me , it means shifting long term investment toward asia, and real estate assets ASAP out if the west mainstream countries.
Life will still be good in Switzerland or the Bahamas in 50y, not so sure west europe or USA


----------



## qldfrog (22 April 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.
> 
> These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind that to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.
> 
> ...



I will try to find you the figure of new western business in china last year: and not to sell there,90% are to import from china or build there.
It is still incredibly high, and during Covid


----------



## pozindustrial (22 April 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.
> 
> These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind that to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.
> 
> ...



Love your history, patterns and sentiment, I too have a natural fondness for patterns and cycles which keeps life interesting.
I was an industrial contractor during the 80s & 90s and I watched sadly as one big industry after another in Melbourne fell and thousands of smaller ones too which at the time was due to old-fashioned, tariff-protected manufacturers being sliced and diced by mostly Japanese and Taiwan based industries who had incredibly efficient factories. They had just decimated the Swiss watch industry, the USA electronics and steel industries and had mostly done the same to the auto industry. Cheap manual labour overseas saw them take over textiles too. Singapore was big at that time.
We struggled to find niches in manufacturing, mostly toying with the latest CNC centres for specialized machining during the 2000s as China's cheap, innovative and lightning fast manufacturing took over almost everything. I am an observer from a distance, not an industry data specialist so this is a broad-brush recall.
When WWII hit we lacked many products including I believe ball bearings. Being so small in population we lacked efficient, very specialized manufacturing and large scale manufacturing for tanks, trucks and planes. Shipping supply lanes were vital to us as well as defending our North. Things changed during the two decades after the war and we had an abundance of manufacturing due to demand and the desire for self sufficiency which is almost non-existent again now.
I see that change about to happen again. We have a very small storage capacity for petroleum products at present and members here could name many more products we have a short supply of, so if there was a conflict in the oceans around us it might quickly bring us to our knees. We have lots of sun and wind plus coal so maybe electric vehicles would be a safer option for self sufficiency. 
The pandemic I believe has made us aware of our isolation with advantages and disadvantages and China's influence has heightened that awareness. So perhaps the phase of buying everything from overseas has past and we are more willing to become self-reliant and look for Aussie manufactured products again. There is another interesting development too with more people spreading out to regional areas due to the attractive cost of housing and the ability for many to work remotely and travel long distances on our roads when required. That increases the workforce availability in regional areas too so if manufacturing began again it may be in those regions.  I am not sure what that means for investing and forecasting, but I feel a definite shift towards Aussie-made.
Family growth during the baby boomer era was huge and it fueled a booming economy, but now we have two problems where couples are not wanting to have large families and there is almost an epidemic of infertility affecting those who do want a family, not to mention the older age of would-be parents. I believe it is going to reverse at some point probably in 10 years and we will have another baby boom even if it is much smaller than the 50s. Then it will be fun times at the stock exchange. If not, there might be a massive boom in pets-related industries.


----------



## over9k (22 April 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.
> 
> These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind that to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.
> 
> ...



There's been an awful lot of what you might call "quiet talk" about just what to do about national debt(s) virtually all across the world really. 

There's a bit of a tug-of-war between what policymakers want to do and what the public will accept. Most of the talk is basically about a steady monetisation of it (i.e inflate it away).


----------



## qldfrog (22 April 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I will try to find you the figure of new western business in china last year: and not to sell there,90% are to import from china or build there.
> It is still incredibly high, and during Covid





Obviously to take with a grain of salt especially the number in yuan as conversion of money amount from chinese is a bit tricky.
But based on this, 100 western funded..who else? Per day in 2020..
I so doubt there is much substance behind the facade, and expect more made in NZ, Malaysia, Vietnam etc for the Chinese made products...
there is the talk, and there is the fact
Now, put a real crisis, homelessness, hunger and yes, this could move to a real shift


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 April 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.
> 
> These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind Wethat to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.
> 
> ...



And, whatever happened to "*Win Win*"?


----------



## over9k (23 April 2021)

Until the young & fit (you know, the people who do all the physical work) are vaccinated and able to get back to work again. 


Also:


----------



## qldfrog (23 April 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And, whatever happened to "*Win Win*"?



Simple, 10 richer Chineses vs 1 richer western business boss paying taxes and interest on the debt used to provide universal income to 9 unemployed western workers.
10-10
Win win Reset style.


----------



## over9k (28 April 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I haven't seen anyone try to properly work out (and I haven't tried myself either) is exactly what the capacity of the world's oil fields is right now?
> 
> That is, if all the taps are fully opened, all the pumps are on and deducting normal routine outages for maintenance etc then what's the daily flow rate globally?
> 
> ...



Got you an answer @Smurf1976


----------



## over9k (30 April 2021)

Microchips (or lack thereof) still a major problem everywhere:








But the economy at large is absolutely screaming, with estimates just being revised upwards constantly: 





But the problem is that all the able-bodied people who actually produce everything are getting the vaccines _last, _so we're going to see a significant uptick in demand for, well, basically everything, until the supply side can catch up. Result? 








However, vaccine rollouts are also way ahead of schedule, so it looks like the movement(s) are going to be much shorter lived than otherwise expected:




So a screaming economy and even inflation (which will drive interest rate increases) gives us absolutely screaming banks (which gain from both) and energy (which gains from reopening) and as a result, the s&p has been screaming lately on account of it being heavier on both:







(Disclosure: I hold all five) 

Finally, because of the vaccine rollout(s) and countries' desperation to get the borders open/tourism money flowing again, france is now doing this: 




So that's one to keep a VERY close eye on for any travel/aviation plays.


----------



## over9k (30 April 2021)

You can basically just pick your commodity with a dart at this point and you'll see it heading to the moon:






Lumber (timber), soybeans, metals, it doesn't matter, we're all still buying stuff and we're all still eating stuff, so until the able-bodied people of the world that actually produce all the stuff we need can get back to work (vaccinated) then this will continue.

Considering that these are the people that are last in line for the vaccines (on both an intra-country and inter-national basis) this is not going to turn the corner in the next five minutes.

Good for brazil (and anyone able-bodied that can produce commodities) though


----------



## basilio (1 May 2021)

I seriously wonder how long before India's economy/society totally cracks under the impact of COVID. The official figures are staggering but all other intelligence says the real figures are multiples higher. Brazil and other South American countries are also struggling to survive.

The new COVID variants which are  significantly more infectious are  spreading the disease far more rapidly than a year ago. At some stage the economic fallout of this situation will be  profound.









						New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
					

Have countries flattened the curve? Daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases for the most affected countries over time.




					coronavirus.jhu.edu
				











						'Impossibly bad': Why India's coronavirus disaster may be far worse than anyone imagines
					

India's coronavirus surge has broken records, but the numbers reported are widely expected to be under representative of the actual figures.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## over9k (3 May 2021)

Yeah I just saw on the news that India's cracked 400k/day. 

Meanwhile, AU's vaccine rollout is actually way behind schedule on account of being heavily reliant on the astrazeneca vaccine: 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05..._news&utm_source=m.facebook.com&sf245515180=1 




"At this pace, Australia's adult population will not be fully vaccinated until *March 2024*".


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 May 2021)

over9k said:


> "At this pace, Australia's adult population will not be fully vaccinated until *March 2024*".



I can see that blowing up one way or another.

Either medically with an outbreak or politically with whatever consequences that brings but if we take that date as correct, well that's almost 3 years away meaning we're only about 30% of the way through this whole saga.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Got you an answer @Smurf1976
> 
> View attachment 123437



Interesting.

If there's 9 million barrels per day capacity sitting idle then that does provide a pretty substantial cushion between present consumption and capacity.

I was expecting it to be lower than that.


----------



## over9k (3 May 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can see that blowing up one way or another.
> 
> Either medically with an outbreak or politically with whatever consequences that brings but if we take that date as correct, well that's almost 3 years away meaning we're only about 30% of the way through this whole saga.



Oh yeah. There's been an awful lot of talking heads (in the right circles) being all "Don't get ahead of yourselves here, globally, we're not even halfway through this thing yet".


----------



## over9k (5 May 2021)

Alright guys looks like we might be in for round two of inflation fears pumping banks vs dumping tech. 






Here's how things looked last time with some magnificent volatility and buy-sell divergences and I've marked them on the charts:




FAS has been a solid hold bet for weeks, BNKU a bit more volatile, and DPST the most volatile of the bank/finance etf's:




But with the S&P being banks heavy, if you're not confident you can time some of the divergences, SPXL has effectively been an arbitrage position lately: 




So if you don't day trade etc like I do you can just buy the dips on SPXL and still make a killing


----------



## basilio (5 May 2021)

basilio said:


> I seriously wonder how long before India's economy/society totally cracks under the impact of COVID. The official figures are staggering but all other intelligence says the real figures are multiples higher. Brazil and other South American countries are also struggling to survive.
> 
> The new COVID variants which are  significantly more infectious are  spreading the disease far more rapidly than a year ago. At some stage the economic fallout of this situation will be  profound.
> 
> ...




An analysis in the Conversation drills deeper into the critical roles India plays in the world economy and why the West needs to ensure India stays functional if we are to avoid an international economic slowdown.

4 Reasons Why India's COVID Crisis Threatens the World Economy​If leading powers fail to help India, the country's health crisis will become a global crisis.



			https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2021-04-30/4-reasons-why-indias-covid-crisis-will-derail-the-world-economy


----------



## basilio (5 May 2021)

Further analysis of the impact of COVID on India and implications for the world economy.



			https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-05-03/indias-catastrophic-coronavirus-surge-highlights-global-vulnerabilities


----------



## over9k (7 May 2021)

aaaaand here we go:





Result:




Banks vs tech divergence back on the menu


----------



## over9k (7 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Oh yeah. There's been an awful lot of talking heads (in the right circles) being all "Don't get ahead of yourselves here, globally, we're not even halfway through this thing yet".






Jay Powell's comments/views/decisions looking 200 iq points above everyone else at the moment.


----------



## Tyler Durden (10 May 2021)

Next pandemic I'm buying everything - shares, property, crypto, used cars, toilet paper...


----------



## over9k (12 May 2021)

Yes, those constraints are that ALL THE ABLE BODIED PEOPLE WHO MAKE EVERYTHING ARE LAST IN LINE FOR THE VACCINES.


This week's been mental. Same huge divergences as last time and it's only wednesday. I'll do a wrap-up at the end of the week but basically everything's busted support levels whilst banks & energy are screaming EXACTLY like last time.


Edit: CPI data now out, way higher than expected, even more talking heads banging on about it being a supply side problem (is this new or something?)




"Must address constraint on supply" 


Exactly. 


In the meantime, there's DPST


----------



## over9k (12 May 2021)

Here's some charting for everyone, check out how NRGU just kissed its previous high before coming off it, and how the previous resistance level seems to now be acting as the new support, giving us dual ranges/channels: 




And you'll see the EXACT same energy & banks vs tech divergence that we saw last time over on the right hand side. 


If NRGU is any indication, we'll be able to use our previous point(s) in our charting to pick our buy & sell points beautifully this time


----------



## over9k (13 May 2021)

Speaking of which:





I got NRGU right and was at about 20% cash after, so now I'm down to 10% as both FNGU and SOXL orders have filled. 

Let's see if I get stung for it.


----------



## over9k (13 May 2021)

So check this out, look at where NRGU is premarket at the exact moment that soxl, fngu, tqqq etc are all looking like rebounding (and doing so when everything else isn't): 





This is only premarket but things are looking good so far.


----------



## over9k (13 May 2021)

Completely unrelated:





It's going to be amazing to see how the powers that be try to spin this as anything but a good thing. Over on CNBC they're already spinning it as indicative of a "previous inflation concern".

Just like when the gamestop stuff was going on, any time the little guy gets one over the corporate interests it's cause for some kind of "concern". Honestly, these people make me sick.




I for one am over the moon for the little guys getting their first decent raise in decades. Good for them.


----------



## over9k (14 May 2021)

Jeez, take a picture gang, it looks like I've managed to actually time both a sell (NRGU) AND a buy (SOXL):





Now if only I hadn't lost twice as much on RIOT after Elon Musk's tweets torpedoed bitcoin today...


----------



## over9k (20 May 2021)

Semiconductors (microchips) have had a wild ride lately on account of the virus outbreak fears in taiwan, but it looks like they've developed a nice little channel for the time being: 




Virus effects etc are a bit of a writeoff on account of all this crypto stuff sending markets reeling.


----------



## over9k (20 May 2021)

Beautiful. Literally on the day & everything.

In fact, quite a few sectors/stocks have found their floors/ranges/channels lately. Not all, but quite a few have:


----------



## Knobby22 (20 May 2021)

Unemployment went down this month despite businesses losing the supplement.
It appears to me that the shutting off of the economy which has prevented foreign workers entering the economy has resulted in Australia(of large economies) being the least effected in Unemployment.(according to Alan Kohler graph today).


----------



## sptrawler (20 May 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Unemployment went down this month despite businesses losing the supplement.
> It appears to me that the shutting off of the economy which has prevented foreign workers entering the economy has resulted in Australia(of large economies) being the least effected in Unemployment.(according to Alan Kohler graph today).



Or those who have enjoyed the benefits of an increased income, now not enjoying the lifestyle change.
There is an old saying, you dont know what you have lost, till it is gone.


----------



## over9k (21 May 2021)

And here's your scalp: 




Sold 50/175 at the resistance level, sold 25 more earlier today at about +6% for the day (so about +15% from the buy), it topped out at about +9% for the day but I'm going to continue holding. 

You'll see that NRGU (and there's been plenty of others, DPST, BNKU et al, no need to post 30 different graphs) clipped resistance the afternoon of the day before SOXL's plummet to support too, marking the high of one corresponding with the low of the other beautifully (just like last time): 




Considering the week this has been and fridays generally see profits taken even when things are more certain I wouldn't be surprised to see a big flip tomorrow again. 

Plenty of swing plays yet!


----------



## over9k (25 May 2021)

Semiconductors, fangs etc well & truly broken out now (no need to post 30 graphs again): 




And with a green day all round, banks & energy are approaching the upper limits of their recent ranges: 




Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings - probably not wise to sell all if both are running as that's not a divergence, it's a bull market, which signals a range about to be broken. 

Tech's been on a wild ride because of crypto, not the virus, and we haven't had two green crypto days in a row for quite some time now. 

So, once again, the virus really having little effects on the markets now.


----------



## over9k (25 May 2021)

Right so bonds have dropped significantly along with crop price, so tech has run. Lots of talk about "are the inflation fears over?". 

I actually tend to agree when you look at the virus numbers and vaccine rollout rates but I was saying that weeks ago. Not convinced we're still in swing trade territory, quite likely to be more of a bull run. 

In short, the "transitory" inflation might finally be in the rear view mirror. 



Energy is running under both scenarios, but banks & tech are inverse. Probably a good idea to torch some bank holdings if they clip resistance again. Still digging. 

Like the snowstorm in the middle of feb, we now have all this crypto madness causing merry hell and muddying the waters. One look at RIOT over the past couple of weeks will show you the whipsawing we're receiving, which is just filtering out in a classic case of contagion. Crytpo has plummeted and then gone choppy and tech, semiconductors etc followed the same trend very strongly. Not convinced that's over yet either as it's literally been on one day +/-10% or more turnarounds for quite some time now. 

If crypto keeps pulling tomorrow it'll mark the first real breakout in quite a while, so that'll give us some confidence. SOXL, FNGU, QQQ etc have already busted resistance significantly.


----------



## over9k (25 May 2021)

Yep, starting to think the market manipulation is in full swing:


----------



## over9k (25 May 2021)

Aaaaaand China's CSI300 runs 3% for the day. 

Yep, the fix is in alright.


----------



## over9k (26 May 2021)

There you go, BNKU clipping resistance before dropping precipitously immediately:




At the same time that NRGU is at support level:




Tech pretty much flat for the day (in fact aside from the above the day's been a bit of a snoozefest all round but it's a tuesday and they usually are).


----------



## over9k (28 May 2021)

More supply constraint problems: 




This is, again, a supply side problem. Housing starts, which can be viewed here: 

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf 

Were some 9.5% below estimates. Why? Because builders literally cannot get the materials they need to build them. 

So if you can't get any stock, you can't sell anything. No sales means no profits. 


Result? 

NAIL plummets: 




I'm late to this party and should've bought some a week ago but it's still a buy now IMO. Remember, this is because of a constraint on supply. 

It's literally as simple as as vaccines = production = sales. 


And vaccines are soon to be deployed to the young/fit that actually do the physical work which produces things like timber


----------



## sptrawler (29 May 2021)

It looks like the winds of change are upon us, after 40 years of decimating Australia's steel manufacturing, the ship may slowly be turning.








						Port Kembla blast furnace upgrade declared critical to Australian steelmaking
					

The New South Wales government has declared plans to upgrade one of Bluescope Steel's Port Kembla blast furnaces as Critical State Significant Infrastructure.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
The New South Wales government has declared plans to upgrade one of Bluescope Steel's Port Kembla blast furnaces as Critical State Significant Infrastructure.

Key points:​
Blast furnace number 6 would be ready for operation when number 5 is decommissioned in 2026
BlueScope said the upgrade was the most technically feasible and and economically attractive option for Australian steelmaking
The production of steel at Port Kembla produces 2.6 million tonnes per annum
Planning Minister Rob Stokes said the proposed $700 million upgrade would provide continued employment for the existing 4,500 workers and contractors, and create an additional 1,000 jobs during construction.

"Declaring a project as Critical State Significant Infrastructure (CSSI) means that it goes through a particularly fast-tracked process," Mr Stokes said.


----------



## over9k (29 May 2021)

over9k said:


> I reckon the market will sort this out itself frog - if you're needed in the office, you're needed in the office.
> 
> The thing is you're probably not needed in the office _every _day, so let's say you worked from home 2/5 days a week, if your company sets up a hot-desk system, that's still a 40% rent reduction.
> 
> That's the thing about all of this - it's not an either/or proposition, you can be in the office when needed and stay home when not. For example, if I was only in the office one day a week I'd move hours away from work and just deal with one loooooong day each week if it meant all the other days were a commute from my kitchen to my home office 5 seconds walk away.



Called it: 









						HSBC to cut office footprint as staff embrace hybrid work model
					

Global banking giant HSBC is reducing its office space in Sydney by 30 per cent before the end of 2022, in line with a recent global strategy to cut back its real estate footprint.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## pozindustrial (29 May 2021)

Same as the auto industry they used to prop up. I would love to see us making goods of high quality efficiently so those industries could stand on their own. Ford and others used to buy from the Kobe mill in Japan because after many Cries for help BHP could not produce the quality required


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2021)

Well it looks as though the result is out, the first V shaped recovery, in a long time.








						Australia is one of six countries to grow its economy since the pandemic began. This is why
					

Australia's economy bounces back from the COVID recession, growing by a much-better-than-expected 1.1 per cent over the past year thanks in part to government subsidies boosting key sectors.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
Australia's economy has bounced back from the COVID recession, growing by a much-better-than-expected 1.1 per cent over the past year.

The ABS GDP data show Australia's economy grew 1.8 per cent over the three months to March, which was also better than most forecasts.

More to come.


----------



## over9k (2 June 2021)

A lot of base effect data about at the moment. 

Also a mountain of debt added to the public purse.


----------



## qldfrog (2 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Well it looks as though the result is out, the first V shaped recovery, in a long time.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



a quick trivia:
2021 australian economy 1.61 trillion
QE 2021 100 billions or 0.1 trillion or 6% of the economy
https://www.focus-economics.com/cou...-quantitative-easing-at-first-meeting-of-2021
Question:
 if you give a shop owner a 6% of his assets gift and his assets grow by 1.1%, what is the outstanding growth of this beautiful business.
Are you a buyer?


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2021)

qldfrog said:


> a quick trivia:
> 2021 australian economy 1.61 trillion
> QE 2021 100 billions or 0.1 trillion or 6% of the economy
> https://www.focus-economics.com/cou...-quantitative-easing-at-first-meeting-of-2021
> ...



What if you own the printing press? It is only numbers on a spread sheet, did Australia gain anything over the years it didn't go the QE route?
Maybe it isn't all based on logics.


----------



## over9k (2 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> What if you own the printing press? It is only numbers on a spread sheet, did Australia gain anything over the years it didn't go the QE route?
> Maybe it isn't all based on logics.



Yes well this is the debate that has the authorities very quietly sweating bullets behind closed doors. 

It does appear that they are going to try & inflate (print) their way out of it over a long slow melt.


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Yes well this is the debate that has the authorities very quietly sweating bullets behind closed doors.
> 
> It does appear that they are going to try & inflate (print) their way out of it over a long slow melt.



Or they are one step ahead, duh


----------



## over9k (2 June 2021)

Printing money is really only something you do when you have no other choice. I can assure you, they REALLY don't want to do it.


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Yes well this is the debate that has the authorities very quietly sweating bullets behind closed doors.



I'll put it another way, when was the last time the ATO sweated bullets about you and when was the last time you sweated bullets about the ATO, I'll bet on the latter. 🤣


----------



## over9k (2 June 2021)

But back to the thread topic: 


Musings: How long infection etc paranoia will remain "after" the pandemic? 

Currently, car travel numbers (no need to post the data to make the point) are actually higher than their pre-pandemic levels because everyone are avoiding public transport/being stuck in a small space with other random people. How long will that paranoia remain? Will it take years and years and years for public transport numbers (confidence) to return? 

If so, car sales are to experience a massive boom once they sort the microchip shortage issue. 

Taking that a step further, will that paranoia be strong enough to keep people off of aeroplanes? We saw that last year through thanksgiving, christmas etc that it did, but that was before vaccines were out in any kind of significant numbers. 


Something tells me emotion will override logic for quite some time here.


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Printing money is really only something you do when you have no other choice. I can assure you, they REALLY don't want to do it.



I had that very same discussion, with an accountant at the Phuket airport terminal, just after the GFC.
Funnily enough he said exactly what you just said.
I can actually troll back and find that exact same example, if you want.


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2021)

over9k said:


> But back to the thread topic:
> 
> 
> Musings: How long infection etc paranoia will remain "after" the pandemic?
> ...



Possibly because everyone is home and therefore more are travelling domestically, no one is travelling overseas which was a huge outflux pre pandemic, so now are travelling at home.
Big bucks being recirculated, rather than redistributed to other countries, win/ win.
I know I rented a car pre covid in Tassie for 4 weeks $400, rented a car Queensland 3 weeks/ 3 years ago $600.
I have just rented a car for 13 days in Queensland same company $1,300, so don't tell me Australia isn't having a Beano. 🤣


----------



## qldfrog (3 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> What if you own the printing press? It is only numbers on a spread sheet, did Australia gain anything over the years it didn't go the QE route?
> Maybe it isn't all based on logics.



Just wanted to point out we roughly lost 5% of our collective wealth with that growth.
We got 1% more on our cheque account against a 6% increase of our personal loan debt.not exactly a yahee moment.
Not saying QE was worst solution but this is not a win.
Precovid i was bringing 100k a year of overseas money into oz:, during and post covid, this is 0.
but government company welfare prevented closure and allowed me to keep buying stuff here and paying bills.
Ok for me but still negative economically for Australia.


----------



## qldfrog (3 June 2021)

Covid and pork price.
Is it just me?
While overall grocery prices are tending .much..higher, i noticed pork is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Roasts can be bought at $7 to 8$ a kg,leg ham still at $9 or so a kg.
Does anyone know if this is another consequences of Chinese bans?
I put the Chinese bans on seafood, barley, coal,..you name it within this thread as we can argue this is a covid fallout.


----------



## qldfrog (3 June 2021)

Economic and covid:
i think we have seen nothing yet until we at last all agree that virus is man made and coming from the Wuhan lab.
Seems that now that Trump is gone,it is not fake news anymore and @Joe Blow can sleep soundly without FB/google knocking on his door if write this ( So i do...delete if still too early)
I like real science and truth but am actually scared by the consequences of the West  backpedaling, it so rises the prospect of being able to blame China on the death of millions of lives and businesses.
Next step is reparations calls and diversion tactics. Taipei ?
With full electronic and economic war... ?
And this whole mess completely discredit our (former) democratic governments, media and "science" as we present it nowadays.
Pangolins and bats meat in fish market..seriously?
When people will realise the amount of BS....and at least some will..


.


----------



## over9k (3 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Possibly because everyone is home and therefore more are travelling domestically, no one is travelling overseas which was a huge outflux pre pandemic, so now are travelling at home.
> Big bucks being recirculated, rather than redistributed to other countries, win/ win.
> I know I rented a car pre covid in Tassie for 4 weeks $400, rented a car Queensland 3 weeks/ 3 years ago $600.
> I have just rented a car for 13 days in Queensland same company $1,300, so don't tell me Australia isn't having a Beano. 🤣



Oh yeah. Tourism is a net negative for a lot of countries/states. I'm hanging out to get my renovations done so I can start milking the airbnb teat. I even have a spare car i'll rent to them for ridiculous money on account of that shortage as well.


----------



## qldfrog (4 June 2021)

An interesting article/view
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...fallout-now-not-the-west-20210603-p57xmc.html
I disagree in that i believe the west has  been annihilated economically
Except maybe indeed the US
EU is no more. Really between covid,socialism, migrants and aging population, it took less than a year to put the final nail to the coffin.
Oz,NZ, Japan...not that good.
So we are left with a strong US, thanks to Trump vaccine campaign..the irony... And also lower lockdowns..plus the basic spring of US capitalism.
 Vs China and its belt neighbours
US has Biden and its clique to destroy economy and national cohesion vs China facing (slow) aging.
A race to the bottom but i still believe China will win it.
China might even push faster and this is worrying in term of war.. economic.. electronic already started in my view.
Hopefully we can avoid a hot war.
And all that because of the work harder, work faster  so common there of a lab sorcerer playing God with viruses LEGO kit


----------



## over9k (4 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is _going _to happen.
> 
> And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally _most _of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.
> 
> This is not complicated.






CAT now up 50% since that post: 




Or a good 150% if you'd bought in either the march or the may lows: 




With it paying dividends the whole time as well, this has been a really solid play. DEERE has followed a similiar trend. 

Zero intentions to sell.


----------



## sptrawler (4 June 2021)

@over9k if the U.S decides that the benefits of using cheap Chinese labour, is outweighed by the risk it presents, they will soon crank up the industrial machine.
There is only one thing the U.S multinationals hate worse than losing profit, it is the fear of losing their industry because another country decides to nationalise it, the ship is turning IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Currently, car travel numbers (no need to post the data to make the point) are actually higher than their pre-pandemic levels because everyone are avoiding public transport/being stuck in a small space with other random people. How long will that paranoia remain? Will it take years and years and years for public transport numbers (confidence) to return?



Not just the pandemic but also the other practical aspects there too.

I'm thinking there'd be people who've managed without a car for however long, seeing owning one as an unnecessary expense and so on, but now that they have one they've changed their mind and will not be going back to their non-car days even if COVID is completely eradicated. 

Associated with that, there's at least a few companies that have decided to officially review their office presence in the CBD. They're looking at two questions, first being whether they need a head office building on that scale at all and second, if they do need it, whether it really needs to be located in the CBD?

Any outcome there other than no change is a negative for the CBD and public transport - if they ditch the office altogether then that means work from home and even if they simply relocate to a suburban area, that most likely means workers driving to the office and parking on site rather than catching public transport to the CBD.

CBD = any CBD since the concept isn't unique to any one city or state.


----------



## over9k (4 June 2021)

Oh they've already pivoted to cheap mexican labour trawler. I could do a more in-depth post if you like, but the long & the short of it is that mexico has had a baby boom (which means lots of young, able-bodied people) and china a bust, and mexico is right next door. So much so that all the car manufacturers (and others) have already set up shop there and gas, oil etc is being plumbed across the border to combine american cheap energy with mexican cheap labour: 






This transition was already underway long before coronavirus. It isn't about to happen or is in the process of happening, it has _already _happened.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Possibly because everyone is home and therefore more are travelling domestically, no one is travelling overseas which was a huge outflux pre pandemic, so now are travelling at home.



There'd be regional differences there in who wins and loses.

I haven't looked into any figures but certainly some areas of Australia under normal circumstances are net winners from tourism, eg the Gold Coast would be one, and others are net losers from it since locals go to other places but the town itself isn't on the tourist map.


----------



## over9k (4 June 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Not just the pandemic but also the other practical aspects there too.
> 
> I'm thinking there'd be people who've managed without a car for however long, seeing owning one as an unnecessary expense and so on, but now that they have one they've changed their mind and will not be going back to their non-car days even if COVID is completely eradicated.
> 
> ...



Yep, with you here, I'm sure you saw my post about the hybrid work model etc being the model of choice at the moment. 

There's also talk of the future being "donut" cities - a city where the middle gets hollowed out on account of people no longer needing to go into the CBD for work etc every day. People still live close enough for the conveniences, kids' sports etc etc but that's basically all. 

I'd go a step further move to one of the satellites (geelong, wollongong, sunshine coast etc) and just eat the 100km commute one or two days a week if I only needed to be in the office every so often.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I know I rented a car pre covid in Tassie for 4 weeks $400, rented a car Queensland 3 weeks/ 3 years ago $600.
> I have just rented a car for 13 days in Queensland same company $1,300,



Demand and supply.

 Do you think a rational business would keep stock around during lockdown? Especially when the second hand market boomed (which it has)


----------



## over9k (4 June 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Demand and supply.
> 
> Do you think a rational business would keep stock around during lockdown? Especially when the second hand market boomed (which it has)



Not that simple. External border closure but internal free movement has meant that tourism has actually _increased _in a lot of areas/states/countries. 

Tourism is a net negative for a lot of places. Places like Fiji rely on it, but many first world countries experience a net negative. Closing the borders has actually _increased _the demand for a lot of rental places. 

Combine that with the microchip shortage meaning there's no supply of new cars, and voila. 


Mechanics are actually run off their feet maintaining older cars now. I posted how much auto parts sellers have seen a massive boom in response too.


----------



## over9k (4 June 2021)

Data in: U.S unemployment down to 5.8% vs 6.1% estimated. Payrolls up 559k vs 675k estimated.




So in other words, the participation rate has dropped.

edit: 




And there you go. 



Bonds have dumped as a result, so tech futures have run the most.


----------



## over9k (4 June 2021)

Lol. So (according to all the talking heads) the jobs etc numbers have hit a goldilocks zone of being good but not so/too good as to ignite inflation and thus interest rate rise fears:




I missed the screencap and can't be bothered fishing the data out directly but I don't need to to say that every sector except manufacturing was up, which is undoubtedly due to the aforementioned materials shortage.

As I keep saying, get the able bodied people vaccinated, supply can increase, so sales can increase. Inflation will actually drop/prices will then come down accordingly. 

You can't make/build anything without materials.


----------



## sptrawler (5 June 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> There'd be regional differences there in who wins and loses.
> 
> I haven't looked into any figures but certainly some areas of Australia under normal circumstances are net winners from tourism, eg the Gold Coast would be one, and others are net losers from it since locals go to other places but the town itself isn't on the tourist map.



Yes, I'm not sure, obviously in W.A ATM everyone is heading North, so towns are limited therefore so is choice.
I just booked a driving holiday, Cairns, Mt Isa, Townsville, Cairns in August and Mt Isa is booked out so we have to stay in Cloncurry.
There seems to be plenty of accommodation in Mt Isa, but no vacancies.


----------



## over9k (5 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Lol. So (according to all the talking heads) the jobs etc numbers have hit a goldilocks zone of being good but not so/too good as to ignite inflation and thus interest rate rise fears:
> 
> View attachment 125566
> 
> ...



Ugh. Not every sector but manufacturing. Every sector but _construction. _Can't edit the post now


----------



## over9k (9 June 2021)

Job openings up a full million month-on-month: 




Jobs which cannot be done remotely are obviously the hardest to fill, hence my previous post about covid proximity paranoia etc. We also know that most infections have actually been spread in the workplace, so it makes sense that in-person jobs are spreading the virus and thus the whole in-person workforce constantly has a lot of people off work sick or just flatly refusing to go to work because of just how likely it'll be that they do contract the virus. 

So a no-win situation for the services sector. 


Also worth noting that like basically all of last year whenever the economic data was far better than expected the mega and micro caps surged the most, the same is occurring at the moment too: 




So it would appear that the barbell play is what to run if you think the economic data is going to beat expectations now too. Time does not appear to have changed the way the market is reacting to positive/better than expected data.


----------



## frugal.rock (9 June 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> There'd be regional differences there in who wins and loses.



Definitely. The regional area I live in is doing great guns from Sydneyites day and weekend tripping.
No vacancies at hotels etc
and their all travelling by car...


----------



## sptrawler (9 June 2021)

Interesting article for 'work from home' expenses able to be claimed at EFY.








						Why 2020-21 could provide your biggest tax refund yet
					

Unprecedented working-from-home tax deductions plus tax cuts offered by the federal government mean more than half of taxpayers can expect their biggest tax refund this year.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
The shortcut method – introduced in the wake of COVID-19 during the 2019-20 tax year – has been extended by the ATO to cover this financial year and is the simplest. You just keep a diary of how many hours you worked from home and multiply that number by 80 cents. This translates to about $1600 in deductions over the year if you worked a 40-hour week.
More complicated, older techniques include the fixed-rate method and the actual-costs method. They could result in bigger deductions but it is best to ask your accountant or tax agent if they are suited to your personal circumstances.
How you apportion your bills to work versus home is also highly important.
“If I was an ATO auditor and was looking at someone’s claims, an absolute red flag would be them claiming 100 per cent of internet or mobile [phone] bills, because there is a private portion for them – unless they have a second phone for purely personal purposes,” Raftery says.
With a disclaimer that each person and each profession is different, he estimates as a rough guide that the average percentages of bills claimed would be:


*50-80 per cent for NBN* “but it varies greatly if you have kids and also streaming services”.
*60-80 per cent for mobile phone plans* “but this one has a wide range. It could be as low as 5-10 per cent or as high as 90-95 per cent”
*100 per cent for a new* *desk* “unless used for home-schooling purposes”.


Similar proportions can be claimed for a new laptop, phone or desktop monitor but “if it costs more than $300 then you must depreciate it over the effective life” of the hardware, Raftery says.
What else can you do now to make this your biggest tax return yet?
Bring forward any work-related expenses by pre-paying them before June 30. These could include electronic hardware, stationery, annual subscriptions, income protection premiums, conference payments, charity donations and voluntary super contributions.


For businesses, Rosenthal says “the instant asset write off now has no limit, meaning you can buy any size asset you want and get a full deduction upfront.” For small businesses, this also includes second-hand assets.”


----------



## over9k (12 June 2021)

Alright so we've had all manner of absolute BS - inflation fears, meme stock mania, snowstorms, canals getting blocked and you name it for the past few months, but what I want to focus on with this post is the inflation fears. 

I (and many others) have been banging on ad nausea about inflation being _transitory _for quite some time now. 

Now, the markets have basically just been choppy BS ever since their 16 feb plummet after the snowstorm, but what I want to focus on is the period starting on the 12th of May. We are now exactly one month from then and it's the first full month of a real bull market that we've seen for essentially the entire year since January. 

Take a look at how the markets have moved since then: 




As we can see, when the market is moving, it's the barbell spread that wins. This was true of last year and as we can see, with our first month of consistent, real, solid growth since January, it's the micro & megacaps that are head & shoulders ahead of everyone else. 

Now, you might be forgiven for thinking that this is just economic growth winning the war against inflation fears and that has a lot of merit - most of the economic data has been consistently beating estimates of late. But, there's more to it. 

Take a look at the U.S 10 year bond rates, the chief driver of inflation fears, since the 12th of May: 




As we can see, it was at this point that the US10Y bond chop stopped and the decline truly began. 

It is also either exactly or very close to the point at which commodities began to nosedive, again, no need to post 30 different graphs all showing the same thing: 




So in short, the "transitory" inflation environment has been well & truly "transitioned". 

However, the key difference now, the way we know that we're now out of the inflation-dictated environment, is that the banks haven't nosedived this time. We haven't seen them plummet while tech screamed, in fact, they've actually increased or at worst remained flat: 




And this is how we know that the last month has been driven by macro conditions improving as well as inflation fears subsiding rather than just one or the other - markets are now getting tailwinds from _both. _

In short, the "transitory" inflation has been transitioned and the macro economy at large is improving way ahead of schedule. 


So in summary, you should be feeling some deja-vu because it's full steam ahead from here and the barbell play is back on the menu


----------



## frugal.rock (12 June 2021)

I'm seeing the inflation "fears" that have receded to be of a temporary nature.

Fears that were pre-emptive, but the calls were early and not based off current reality, is what I'm thinking.

From all your postings, I would envisage lack of on time supply will inevitably show up in the data and was only just thinking the other day that we're likely to see a "spike" of sorts.

Cost of goods, shipping, commodities, labour etc etc have all gone up dramatically so I see that undersupply nature eventually rearing up inflation for a unknown period of time.

In my opinion it will be influenced by world recovery and vaccinations and to a lesser extent the fears of the whole pandemic thing, ie; people willing to travel externally again and many other factors.

"Rain, rain, go away, come again another day..."
Just change rain to inflation.

Thanks to your informative posts, we can all be well prepared.
Cheers.

PS, if the above scenario (an excessive temporary rise in actual inflation) does pan out, what are the implications of it?

I would think inflation fears will have a second wave soon enough, when is probably the question?


----------



## basilio (12 June 2021)

I think we should re focus  on the main point of the thread - economic implications of COVID.

It seems to me that the development of new and far more dangerous strands of  the Coronavirus is going to have even more of an impact than 2020. The Delta strand is far more infectious, creates more serious medical problems and  is not totally stopped by the current vaccines.

It has  quickly become the dominant strain in the UK, India and much of Europe is at risk. 









						COVID-19 Delta variant a growing worry in Europe, warn Spanish and U.K. health officials
					

The Delta variant now accounts for 90% of coronavirus cases in the U.K. and the World Health Organization has warned it could become prevalent in Europe.




					www.marketwatch.com
				












						Why the Delta variant is terrifying experts
					

It spreads more easily, it’s more severe, and is more resistant to vaccines.




					www.news.com.au
				












						How the Delta variant crushed a 'herd immunity' myth and ravaged the Indian capital
					

As Delta rampaged through India undetected, doctors were confounded by the sheer scale of the virus's spread. This is how the COVID-19 variant fuelled a calamitous surge in cases before slipping beyond the country's borders.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## sptrawler (15 June 2021)

It looks as though the free trade agreement with the U.K is a goer, when the international borders are open.
The recognition of professional qualifications, should help with joint R & D hopefully.








						Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson strike Australia-Britain free trade deal over dinner
					

New free trade deal will pave the way for more Australians to live and work in Britain once international borders reopen.




					www.theage.com.au


----------



## sptrawler (22 June 2021)

U.S company Global Foundries to make chip manufacturing plant in Singapore, the U.S won't be happy, Biden has been asking for 'chip manufacturing to return to the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/globalfoundries-announces-new-singapore-plant.html
From the article:
Semiconductors are critical components that power all kinds of electronics, from smartphones to computers to the brake sensors in cars. Their production involve a complex network of firms that design the chips, companies that manufacture them as well as those that supply the technology, materials and machinery to do so.

GlobalFoundries is a so-called “pure” foundry, with factories in the U.S., Germany and Singapore. Foundries are companies that are contracted by semiconductor firms to build chips. GlobalFoundries manufactures semiconductors designed by the likes of AMD, Qualcomm and Broadcom.

The global chip shortage has highlighted the importance of foundries, which are investing billions in new production lines and upgraded equipment to meet the surge in demand.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, is the world’s biggest foundry by market share and revenue, according to TrendForce. It has about 56% market share, followed by Samsung (18%), UMC (7%) and GlobalFoundries (7%).

Semiconductor designers and manufacturers are trying to make chips smaller and better. At the moment, only TSMC and Samsung have the ability to manufacture the most advanced chips.


----------



## qldfrog (23 June 2021)

I suspect we will see another hit on the market when people and so markets will become aware of Israel covid recent  figures
40% of new contaminations are fully vaccinated.while some might have blamed AZ on the new wave among vaccinated in the UK, Israel is only using Pfizer..
So maybe time to push treatment and real prevention, and let the virus loose instead of extending its lifetime and so augmenting mutations.?
Another thread
Anyway, once realised vaccines are not working more than the flu shots,and with the next wave expected next autumn in the northern hemisphere, if wall street has not crashed before, we will then.so that put a deadline crash to february 2022, probably earlier as markets look ahead.
DYOR as posting any covid facts could cause issues to Joe and turn that thread into another ideological fight


----------



## over9k (23 June 2021)

Chip lead times now at record 18 weeks as the economic recovery continues whilst chip plants take several years to construct:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-for-chips-stretch-further-deepening-shortage

So unlike lumber, soybeans, wheat etc that supply has been able to recover for as people get back to work, chips were already running flat out and so aren't going to change any time soon.


(for those concerned that we were off topic for the thread, inflation has been largely dictated by the virus, hence me talking about it so much)


----------



## over9k (23 June 2021)

Cross-post:

First:




But then:





Followed by




Result:



	

		
			
		

		
	
\


Whilst everyone lost their minds on the short term yields, shown here:




Note the date on the yield curve drop screencap: 17th of June.


You know, right where the market just took off like a gunshot.


----------



## over9k (23 June 2021)

Birth rates also dropped by 8% through the pandemic:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...kdowns-u-s-births-plummeted-by-8?srnd=premium




Which, unlike university enrollments, actually followed the historical trend of recession consequences (university enrollments usually go up in a recession but not this time).

I'm pretty sure that 2008-2009 and 1992 or so were very low birth years as well.


I suspect we might see the birth-death delta at near zero or even below it for quite some time yet.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2021)

Just in case anyone's in any kind of doubt, here's a quick visual of just how ON the move the megacaps now are that the inflation fears are gone: 




You'll see that a beautiful resistance buy point (really wish I'd added more than I did but w/e) was found so it'll be interesting to see how hard it runs now. There's still another 30% to move to hit our previous feb peak but we're at the previous april peak now. 

I am still holding.


----------



## basilio (26 June 2021)

I think we need to reconsider the economic impact of COVID on our local economy and internationally as well.

Sydney is now in a 2 week lockdown attempting to control the *extremely* infectious delta COVID version. This has already escaped to Melbourne and now a mine in the NT.

The vaccination rate is still far too low to protect the majority of the population from sickness or death. The experience of the spread of  the delta and now delta plus variation in India and elsewhere says we won't be coming out of lockdowns until vaccinations reach 80% of the population.  I wonder how willing and capable the Governments are to support business and workers like they did last year ? 

  
Two-week lockdown for greater Sydney​ 
The New South Wales premier,* Gladys Berejiklian*, has announced a two-week lockdown.

From 6pm today, all of greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains, the Central Coast and Wollongong will go into lockdown until midnight on Friday 9 July.

Northern Territory mine worker tests positive to Covid​The Northern Territory chief minister, *Michael Gunner*, has confirmed a Covid case at the Granites gold mine.

The case works as a miner, and travelled to the NT from Bendigo in Victoria, via Brisbane, where he did hotel quarantine. Officials consider the man was infectious from 18 June to 24 June.

.. Gunner says there are 754 people in isolation on the mine site, as well as *approximately 900 people who have left the mine site in the days since the case arrived there.

Those workers have travelled on to Brisbane, Perth, Alice Springs and Darwin airports from the mine.*










						Commonwealth declares Sydney a hotspot to trigger disaster support – as it happened
					

Gladys Berejiklian flags help and says ‘nobody should feel stressed about their financial situation’. This blog is now closed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## over9k (26 June 2021)

The good news is that the vaccines are about 90% effective against it, so we're still back to the same vaccine rollout dictum - we don't need to start the whole development process all over again.


----------



## basilio (26 June 2021)

over9k said:


> The good news is that the vaccines are about 90% effective against it, so we're still back to the same vaccine rollout dictum - we don't need to start the whole development process all over again.




*Absolutely -* if  we were actually vaccinated.

We are not vaccinated at anywhere near the numbers to protect the community.  If delta Covid gets away as it threatens to  we face a minimum of 4-5 months infections and closures before we might have widespread inoculation.  And that doesn't deal with the people who will refuse to get jabbed and become continuing source of infection.  And teh picture we are seeing o/s of delta covid getting away is stark.



			https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?


----------



## sptrawler (26 June 2021)

basilio said:


> .  And that doesn't deal with the people who will refuse to get jabbed and become continuing source of infection.  And teh picture we are seeing o/s of delta covid getting away is stark.



How will the people who refuse to get a jab, be a continuous source of infection, if everyone else is vaccinated?


----------



## basilio (26 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> How will the people who refuse to get a jab, be a continuous source of infection, if everyone else is vaccinated?




 Clearly they will spread infections amongst themselves.  If we have 20-30% of people who aren't vaccinated  they will continue to fall ill if there is any virus in the community.

The other critical risk is that the virus will  continue its rapid mutation and we risk the vaccine being impotent.

Where we are now









						COVID-19 leaks leave most states and territories on edge and put millions in isolation
					

Australia is on tenterhooks as it enters school holidays battling COVID-19 outbreaks in several states and territories while vaccine supply continues to fall short of demand.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## sptrawler (26 June 2021)

basilio said:


> Clearly they will spread infections amongst themselves.  If we have 20-30% of people who aren't vaccinated  they will continue to fall ill if there is any virus in the community.
> 
> The other critical risk is that the virus will  continue its rapid mutation and we risk the vaccine being impotent.
> 
> ...



So does that mean the vaccination is pointless?


----------



## over9k (26 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> So does that mean the vaccination is pointless?





Not sure about you, but I don't want to get the virus. Nor does my 84 year old grandmother, 67 year old father etc etc...


----------



## sptrawler (26 June 2021)

over9k said:


> Not sure about you, but I don't want to get the virus. Nor does my 84 year old grandmother, 67 year old father etc etc...



So are you vaccinated? Also is your grandmother vaccinated and your father?
By the way just to give you a heads up, it doesn't stop any of you getting the virus,  it just reduces the severity of the reaction.
AS with most things in life, whether it be investing, politics, buying a house, or having vaccinations, emotion should be the last factor in decision making.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> So are you vaccinated? Also is your grandmother vaccinated and your father?
> By the way just to give you a heads up, it doesn't stop any of you getting the virus,  it just reduces the severity of the reaction.
> AS with most things in life, whether it be investing, politics, buying a house, or having vaccinations, emotion should be the last factor in decision making.



How is this emotional?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 June 2021)

_apologies if this has been covered before_

The Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank will release fresh data today showing regional migration is at its highest levels since 2018, rising 7 per cent in the March quarter from the year prior.



> The Gold Coast was the most popular destination among “metro-movers” fleeing capital cities during the 2021 March quarter.  The next most popular destinations were the Sunshine Coast, also in Queensland, Greater Geelong in Victoria, then Wollongong and Newcastle in NSW.



The data is part of a new joint venture between the bank and the RAI to track domestic migration among its customer base of 10 million people, where six months in a new location qualifies as migration.


> “_The first institution most people notify when they move is the bank,”  _RAI chief executive Liz Ritchie said. _“This important partnership allows us to collate data on changes of address and postcode as registered by CBA’s 10 million customer base, the largest in Australia._”


----------



## over9k (28 June 2021)

Exactly as I described over in the housing thread with the USA. Same phenomenon in England too. 

Not sure how much it has to do with the virus though?


----------



## over9k (29 June 2021)

Alright so data like this continues to stream in now: 




And so it's fair to say that looking at basic indicators like cinema numbers, flight numbers etc etc that the reopening and recovery is WELL underway. 

To look at the fundamentals, we're seeing this same reopening occurring in the workplace, with supply sides now finally coming back online with commodities thus dropping as supply increases again, and we get the big fundamentals like bonds now plummeting once more: 




This is all old news (has been on repeat for about the last month to month & a half or so now) but I'm mentioning it just so we can be sure that it's still occurring. 

As a result, we see tech pulling the hardest whilst energy & banks plummet (so the same swing play we've had for 3-4 months now), but what I want to point out in this post is one of the long term bets from yesteryear: 

The stay-at-home tech. 

Announcements like this are just constant now: 




Whilst some companies are mandating all employees to return to the office ASAP, the overwhelming majority are announcing _permanent _hybrid work models - few companies want their employees to be totally remote, there are times when they need them to be in the office, but just like many people predicted, they're seeing no need to make them come in on the days when they don't need to be. This _is _the long term normal now - the hybrid/partial distance workplace of the future is _now. _

The result of this is that the stay at home plays, of particular note zoom, are now back to screaming again. Check zoom out against TQQQ, the triple levered nasdaq (a very tech heavy index) ETF since the may lows: 




So what we have here is tech outpacing the overall market significantly, and then zoom outpacing tech by a factor of _three. _

But this phenomenon of an old favourite being in vogue again isn't unique. Check out the megatech triple levered ETF, FNGU: 
	

		
			
		

		
	




Not only has this outpaced the nasdaq considerably, but it is in fact _docusign, _previously a thorn in my side for an entire year: 




Which is the only stay at home play that has kept up with it. Not even zoom has kept pace with the megatech, and the megatech has screamed. 

We see the same hard runs in the previous more local heartbreakers of afterpay, zip pay, xero, kogan and so on (no need to post 1000 charts, you can go and look for yourself) as well as the electronic payment providers like square & paypal. 

You know, *all the favourites of last year. *



In other words, everyone saying that all the inflation etc fears were transitory and this work from home stuff was going to become permanent were absolutely right and have been totally vindicated on both counts over the last 6 weeks or so. 

So yeah. Everything old is new again


----------



## over9k (30 June 2021)

And the news has finally realised what's been true for about 6-7 weeks now: 




So that's your sell signal. 

(No, I'm not joking).


----------



## over9k (30 June 2021)

On another note, anyone that follows me knows I've made quite a few posts about the wonder of index investing - i.e buying a market tracking ETF and just sitting on it. As Jack Bogle said, "indexing always wins".


Recall just how much volatility and nosedives we've seen in tech over the past ~18 months. The tech wreck of september last year. The plummet into election season. The crash after the texas snowstorm. The recrash after inflation fears sent everyone for six just as the snowstorm crash looked like it was recovering.

Every single time, everyone were losing their collective minds. I've just bought at the peak, I've just bankrupted myself like an idiot, so on and so forth.

Let me show you something:




Despite all of these crashes, all of these fears, all the carryon, the nasdaq is now right back to trend. Like, exactly.

If you'd bought TQQQ in the march crash of last year and just sat on your money like it was an egg you were trying to hatch - sold nothing, bought nothing, done precisely zero throughout this entire period despite all the crashes, all the panic, everything, you'd now be sitting on a 550% return (in USD denomination, once the exchange rate is factored in it's about 350% return) for doing quite literally nothing at all. Not making a single trade, not doing a single bit of research, not losing a wink of sleep lying awake at night panicking about what's just happened, nothing.

And you'd have a hard time finding many stock pickers that have made 550% return over this period either. There's a few out there yes, but I can assure you, there's not many.


This is the wonder of index investing when you're confident of a market's direction and the double (or triple) wonder of leveraged index ETF's. 

When you know what direction the market is going to move in, all you have to do is buy right & sit tight.


----------



## over9k (30 June 2021)

SOXL looking at near as makes no difference a third top above trend so have trimmed 25% of my position at $44.50. Will obviously have to wait to see how good my timing is.


----------



## qldfrog (30 June 2021)

With winter now here,and still living in our glass bubble, we are more and more prone to a real exposure.now in lock down in qld.
And more news like:








						Queensland police use of check-in data sparks reform calls
					

A policy change has already been ordered by police to limit the use amid national debate about the issue, though privacy experts say the government needs to do as promised.




					www.brisbanetimes.com.au
				



Will ensure a lower and lower public acceptance of government decision
Crying wolf for too long wo even acting in preparation...
Another round of business to go under,that or more debt here in oz.
Market wise,it seems the asx is more coupled to the NYSE indexes than local factors,so we could still be ok for a few months before correction
 october 2021 anyone? :-(


----------



## qldfrog (30 June 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _apologies if this has been covered before_
> 
> The Regional Australia Institute and Commonwealth Bank will release fresh data today showing regional migration is at its highest levels since 2018, rising 7 per cent in the March quarter from the year prior.
> 
> ...



I believe CBA is sitting on a golden goose with their database,they are well ahead of the ABS and have access real time to the pulse of the nation.what,when ,where people buy or stop buying
They could make bazillions with this info in the share market,and i am sure some do.
And have a fine understanding of the covid response economic effects, if only our government actors were bright enough to use and leverage this


----------



## basilio (30 June 2021)

Australia is effectively in lockdown (bar Victoria) in the school holidays. The regional tourist industries in particular would have to be at crisis point.  The number of cancellations of holidays would be bank (and back...) breaking.

I hope the Feds put some decent support under these businesses because their collapse will affect  people and regional communities alike.









						With school holidays looming, Perth's lockdown has left many in the country facing a catastrophe
					

From Broome, to Busselton, Exmouth and Kalbarri, holidaymakers from Perth are cancelling their bookings, forcing regional WA tourism operators to once again bear the brunt of a COVID-19 lockdown.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## basilio (30 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> So does that mean the vaccination is pointless?




The current Sydney  COVID outbreak was largely seeded at a childrens birthday party.  

There were 30 attendees. 24 became infected with Delta COVID and have passed it on.

The 6 people who didn't get infected were health workers who were fully vaccinated.









						Six out of 30 people who attended Sydney party didn't contract COVID-19. They all had one thing in common
					

The highly contagious Delta strain of COVID-19 infected every attendee at a West Hoxton birthday party except for the six people who were vaccinated, the NSW Government reveals.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## wabullfrog (30 June 2021)

basilio said:


> Australia is effectively in lockdown (bar Victoria) in the school holidays. The regional tourist industries in particular would have to be at crisis point.  The number of cancellations of holidays would be bank (and back...) breaking.
> 
> I hope the Feds put some decent support under these businesses because their collapse will affect  people and regional communities alike.
> 
> ...




I would think that Regional tourism in WA apart from those that cater to the overseas tourists has done extremely well during the pandemic. Kalbarri is the only one that that has had a bad time recently with Seroja.

Down South was crazy busy up until the last month or so, up North was the same during last Winter & already currently is. Try & book a place in Broome for the next couple of weeks & have a look at the prices.


----------



## over9k (1 July 2021)

Chip shortage _still _a problem: 





Ford's been a real darling lately too: 




I don't hold.


----------



## qldfrog (1 July 2021)

And just a fact cf Covid which has implications for Australia..and so our ASX
Les autorités britanniques ont révélé que 117 personnes étaient décédées outre-Manche du variant Delta, naguère appelé «_indien_». Or, parmi elles, 50 étaient complètement vaccinées (42,7% du total) et 20 primovaccinées (17,1%). Autrement dit, 59,8% des personnes décédées en raison du variant Delta avaient reçu au moins une dose de vaccin
Le Figaro website today so reliable info,

To translate quickly, in the uk, of the 117 deaths from Delta variant,50 had been fully vaccinated and 20 had had one shot.
And the UK is using AZ as we do.
You take the conclusions you want but even if we were to be mostly vaccinated, my view is that we are still exposed naked.


----------



## over9k (3 July 2021)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lerates-unemployment-rate-at-5-9?srnd=premium 

Jobs data way above expectations, markets green.


----------



## over9k (4 July 2021)

Alright here's your week:





And here's the kind of swing plays that have been available recently. Just three trades would have you at near 300% return: 

Sell your banks position anywhere high up on the curve here:




Sell your tech holdings and dive back into the banks here:




And then flog your bank holdings where indicated above and rebuy into tech gets you here: 




Reason? 

Bond yields: 





Someone earlier asked if growth's day was over, whether it could make a comeback etc etc. 

Here's your answer: 





And we still have tons of "better than expected" data to come pouring in:


----------



## over9k (6 July 2021)

Some AU data, particularly relevant with this delta variant and lockdowns etc: 












There's a LOT of concern that the RBA is going to pull the rug out right as this delta variant smashes us. 


FWIW, the moderna vaccine (the one that can be transported in a normal freezer) appears to be extremely effective against the delta variant.


----------



## pozindustrial (6 July 2021)

Israel's adult population is 81% vaccinated, but they have problems. Will Australia be different? Just food for thought.








						Highly Vaccinated Israel Has a Nagging Coronavirus Problem
					

The Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spreading in Israel, including among fully vaccinated people.




					thevaccinereaction.org
				



and before you attack the source, I like to look at both sides of an argument. One-eyed in any direction is looking for trouble.


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Israel's adult population is 81% vaccinated, but they have problems. Will Australia be different? Just food for thought.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



from main reliable news, nearly half of their covid deaths were vaccinated, and that was last week, so probably worsening now.
"Pfizer" vaccine in israel...
It will take another 2 or 3 years and trillions wasted $, zillions  extra deaths and ruined lives etc to admit it is a "really bad and nasty" flu.
As the world has seen many
After the first 6m, we could have managed it instead of that maddening overreaction and manipulation
Expect some (sad) *consequences *as our governments and its servants(media, big tech, political egos) have fully discredited sciences ; we will see it backlash with all the alarmist CC hysteria I think.
Hopefully, this will allow real scientists to speak,but  I would not bet 2c on this
The worst bit now is that in case of a really bad pandemic (which will happen sooner or later) we will be wiped out for crying wolf too much for that relatively benign one, and *we still have not a single extra hospital bed*....
But no, it is not over.
Like the plan from PM: defuse the heat with "vaccination"..not solving much but good to reassure people after ramping it so much, a few populist measures..slow travels, etc and then manage it, or suck it up.
As good as can be coming from where we are
Latest news: we are not immortal.


----------



## over9k (7 July 2021)

Bonds (inflation) still dropping: 






So tech keeps running even when everything else gets smashed: 





Note how the day was deep into the red until bonds flipped on the data, so stocks then flipped in the expected opposite direction: 





And check out the correlation between zoom & the nasdaq: 




Often an almost perfect 1.00 correlation with TQQQ, with most of the time spent over the 0.75 mark.


----------



## wayneL (7 July 2021)

I guess the title of the thread is with regards to the macro economic implications of SARS-COV2.

There may be micro economic implications too.

Generally if I buy a good or a service I'm looking for a pretty pleasant experience. 99% of the time I'm a pretty jovial fellow in my interactions with business owners and being in a service industry myself, do my best not only to give quality service, but also to try to have my customers feel good about what I have done on a psychological level.

I'm pretty sure that most people, like me, like to be appreciated for their business.

Recently for a host of other reasons I've been up a lot more selective on who I will give my business to. However with the most recent bout of bed-wetting, I have a new criteria for selection of who I will do business with.

I fully appreciate that businesses need to fulfil there regulatory obligations with regard to to lock downs and track and trace and whatnot. I don't want businesses to endure large and ridiculous fines... So I grit my teeth put the stupid face nappy on and log in with the Orwellian app.

But I don't want to be treated either like a leper or as a potential criminal... Gradually having crossing businesses off who I will never give my business ever again on this basis.

And here is the newest load of bollox. 

Finished early today so stopped in to a grog shop to pick up a couple of beers (going to meet up with a veterinary colleague to discuss a few cases and and plant how our future collaborations should look like).

Despite being masked, mobile phone in hand with app open ready to scan the QR code,and being a regular customer, I was asked to present photo ID as well.

Well guess which grog shop will be missing out on my substantive alcohol expenditure from now on?

Guess which grog shop (who was welcoming and pretty chilled about everything) gets my business from now on?

We've got a pretty big messenger group and all have experienced this as well in the last few days. All will be changing their buying habits similarly to myself.

I will be watching these businesses with interest to see how they fare.


----------



## Humid (7 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> I guess the title of the thread is with regards to the macro economic implications of SARS-COV2.
> 
> There may be micro economic implications too.
> 
> ...



Probably just your youthfull looks


----------



## sptrawler (7 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> I guess the title of the thread is with regards to the macro economic implications of SARS-COV2.
> 
> There may be micro economic implications too.
> 
> ...



I know what you mean, I went to the local on Sat to catch up with the guys and the bosses son said you have to wait outside as there are 20 inside FFS, I said how would you know you have your shoes on. 😂 He threatened to ban me, weird sod.
In W.A it is really getting beyond the joke, one case who is in quarantine and everyone has to start the 'Simon says' game.


----------



## Knobby22 (8 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> I will be watching these businesses with interest to see how they fare.



Being cancelled will teach him.

Let us know when he goes broke and loses his house so we can all celebrate.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Being cancelled will teach him.
> 
> Let us know when he goes broke and loses his house so we can all celebrate.



Well that's the reality of business isn't it, Knobby. If I treat my clients poorly, I lose clients to someone who doesn't. Unless you proposing I am obligated to support poor customer experience in favour of good? Is this some new form of twisted fascism?

BTW, I think we all know there are plenty who've lost their business and house because they weren't *allowed* to open and multinationals refuse to lower their rent.


----------



## Knobby22 (8 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> Well that's the reality of business isn't it, Knobby. If I treat my clients poorly, I lose clients to someone who doesn't. Unless you proposing I am obligated to support poor customer experience in favour of good? Is this some new form of twisted fascism?
> 
> BTW, I think we all know there are plenty who've lost their business and house because they weren't *allowed* to open and multinationals refuse to lower their rent.



But its not just personal is it? You are all organised on snapchat to weaken businesses who try to enforce the lockdown laws during a lockdown when they are at their weakest.

In Melbourne, we have been doing special things to help the businesses survive during the lockdowns, those lucky of us to still be working. The idea is to support small business as much as possible. In my area we had a Eat out Thursday where we deliberately tried to help the small business people., bought takeaway from the struggling restaurants and pubs, bought flowers from the florist. And most of us did the right thing to try to stop spreading the virus so the lockdown ends quicker.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2021)

Well a gold star for you Knobby.

I too try to support small business, just the ones that treat me like they actually want my business.... Business 101


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2021)

"But its not just personal is it? _*You are all organised *_on snapchat to weaken businesses who try to enforce the lockdown laws during a lockdown when they are at their weakest."
are you becoming a Basilio @Knobby22? a bit disappointed...


----------



## Knobby22 (8 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> "But its not just personal is it? _*You are all organised *_on snapchat to weaken businesses who try to enforce the lockdown laws during a lockdown when they are at their weakest."
> are you becoming a Basilio @Knobby22? a bit disappointed...That's what I understood. There is nothing wrong with not going back to a store if you are unhappy with the service but this seems more than that.



That's what I understood. They are making a list of businesses to target.

_We've got a pretty big messenger group and all have experienced this as well in the last few days. All will be changing their buying habits similarly to myself.

I will be watching these *businesses* with interest to see how they fare_.

My parents lost their house and business during the "recession we had to have" so I know what it's like. Not nice.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> That's what I understood. They are making a list of businesses to target.
> 
> _We've got a pretty big messenger group and all have experienced this as well in the last few days. All will be changing their buying habits similarly to myself.
> 
> ...



who are "they"? You were replying to Wayne, and in my books, using "they" is a kind of 
us vs them, with implied "we have truth with us"...
"They" the Chineses, the abos, the boomers, etc etc etc
"They" the enemy in the war, etc etc
I know the woke leftist vocabulary is definitively going that way but i expected better ?
Not comfortable with you   using that denomination:  while we can disagree, you (sic) have not joined my blocked list and I do not intent to
Have a great day
I do boycott businesses who offer bad services and enter appropriate reviews if need be.no witch hunt


----------



## Knobby22 (8 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> who are "they"? You were replying to Wayne, and in my books, using "they" is a kind of
> us vs them, with implied "we have truth with us"...
> "They" the Chineses, the abos, the boomers, etc etc etc
> "They" the enemy in the war, etc etc
> ...



OK,  I apologise.  have the wrong end of the stick.


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2021)

Oh dear @Knobby22 you have truly adopted the packets of the extreme left.

How did a group of farriers who communicate with each other as colleagues on Facebook messenger, become an organised Snapchat hit squad with the express purpose forcing businesses to go broke?

And you criticize the Murdochs?

How is this any different from the self messenger group consulting with each other on the best source of raw materials for our business?

Additionally, as the group is Australia wide in all sorts of locations both metro and rural, it is unlikely that any of us will be using the same shops as per what I mentioned in my post above.

Yep this group can really collude and cause some grog shop in the Perth suburbs to go broke. Pulleeeze.

I would posit to you that the shop owner himself will be responsible for his own misfortune if he treats his customers poorly.

Business 101


----------



## Knobby22 (8 July 2021)

I apologise.


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> I apologise.



We all sometimes get heated, no trouble 
and admitting a little slippage..is that the term? Is to your credit.🙏
👍


----------



## qldfrog (8 July 2021)

When you have a business, you follow the rules as you have no choice, 
🥴as long as you do not overdo it, I think everyone understands it.
Have all a great day👍


----------



## wayneL (8 July 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> I apologise.



Bygones, bro. 

And if I'm honest I'm am a little bit in a permanently triggered state myself at the moment.

I've always tried to live my life as fearlessly as possible. Fear is not an option when getting under 600-700Kg of pure fight or flight which often has been inadequately trained.

... So it bothers me that many of the people I'm interacting with are absolutely terrified.... And in my humble opinion unjustifiably so.

Sensible and cautious yes, but the fearful are doing my head in.

So, man, my sympathetic nervous system is running on all 8, and my cortisol levels are no doubt through the roof.

I'm in fight mode of fight or flight.

So, I too apologize. I am intentionally trying to trigger people but only to try to think and discuss. I may have got that wrong.


----------



## over9k (8 July 2021)

Reputations exist. Word of mouth exists. For both the upside and the downside. Word can spread about a good business just as easily as it can spread about a bad one. 

This is a non-discussion.


----------



## Humid (8 July 2021)

Why did they want ID?
Never had it happen to me


----------



## Humid (8 July 2021)

And my credit card statement looks like Northern Suburbs bottleshop directory


----------



## over9k (8 July 2021)

Total storm in a teacup. I'll be deploying my remaining 10% cash tomorrow.


----------



## qldfrog (10 July 2021)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pandemic-caused-many-boomers-retire-110057134.html
This will probably trigger higher inflation and lower tax  receipts for the economy, and many happier and more meaningful lives.Pew's reports are usually very trustful and abstain of political bias.
The way i see it, people have been forced to realise life is not work, or to be more exact , a minimum of8 to 5/6:30 slaving against a title, a $ package being gouged 30 to 50% by greedy tax offices for governments who demonstrated clearly their incompetence and clear self interest.it may also at last made people realise that death is coming and life is short, however high your bank account.
O found this very dalutary and great at the individual level, but obviously less wonderfull for the economy.
In short, less sheeps, more eagles..I also suspect that most of the exiting workers will be more of the thinking ones and so expect worse common sense, more pen pishing and hierarchy stupidity from the remaining ones.
The governments will ultimately try to fight: stick and carrot.
expect raising pension age,tax incentives but i suspect the response will be F. Y.
More work,more money.... to be imprisoned in my own home/country at the wimp of an idiotic state Premier who is ready to kill my business or murder me if it get her//him reelection?
I go fishing or golfing with mates...


----------



## qldfrog (10 July 2021)

Hope that post is not too autobiographical....but i doubt that i am alone


----------



## pozindustrial (10 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Hope that post is not too autobiographical....but i doubt that i am alone



Fishing and golfing with mates - great for the soul


----------



## bux2000 (10 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> In short, less sheeps, more eagles.








__





						even eagles need a push video at DuckDuckGo
					

DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.




					duckduckgo.com
				




All the best
bux


----------



## bux2000 (10 July 2021)

I apologise once again for my technical ineptness


----------



## qldfrog (10 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Fishing and golfing with mates - great for the soul



Well better than building an intl business crushed by travel regulations or pissing code,or handling a corporate PMO and then be taxed at 45% on income streamed from OS while blamed by 49% of your citizens as the cause of their own failure.
I let them pay their imports,and social programs, and covid tests


----------



## qldfrog (10 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Fishing and golfing with mates - great for the soul



Actually,do not have time for either. But out of subject


----------



## bux2000 (10 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Actually,do not have time for either.



Yeh........ I know .......Mates can be a bit like that sometimes  

bux


----------



## over9k (10 July 2021)

CNBC's done a bit on rubber:


----------



## noirua (12 July 2021)

Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection
					

Simultaneous infections are rare but can happen, particularly in people yet to be vaccinated, warn experts.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				











						BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron: How worried should we be?
					

Surges of Covid are happening again around the world, driven by some new subvariants of Omicron.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




The economic situation is easy to understand here. The UK is battling with its economy versus getting everyone vaccinated and hoping the increases in cases likely to reach 100,000 per day will lead to fewer hospitalisations. Whether other countries can achieve this is unlikely so disaster will befall some who may have to follow Brazil's example and let their economies travel on regardless.


----------



## noirua (12 July 2021)

5 Things To Know About the Delta Variant
					

Delta was a highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 virus strain that was first identified in India, and also circulated in the United States and other countries. The vaccines have proven to be highly effective against Delta, but anyone who is unvaccinated is at risk for infection by the variant.




					www.yalemedicine.org
				



“It’s actually quite dramatic how the growth rate will change,” says Dr. Wilson. Delta is spreading 50% faster than Alpha, which was 50% more contagious than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, he says. “In a completely unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks—it’s estimated that the average person infected with the original coronavirus strain will infect 2.5 other people,” Dr. Wilson says. “In the same environment, Delta would spread from one person to maybe 3.5 or 4 other people.”

Australia virtually shutting its borders has probably averted disaster and saved the economy as well. Letting the guard down at times is not on and following China's example is needed to be carried on.


----------



## qldfrog (12 July 2021)

noirua said:


> 5 Things To Know About the Delta Variant
> 
> 
> Delta was a highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 virus strain that was first identified in India, and also circulated in the United States and other countries. The vaccines have proven to be highly effective against Delta, but anyone who is unvaccinated is at risk for infection by the variant.
> ...



Just a simple science fact: deadly viruses will morth into more contagious and less lethal..you can read such postings i made more than a year ago,
natural evolution unless we..via lockdowns travel bans etc slow down the spread and give  all mutations a chance, creating more deadly in the mix.
We can not eradicate this virus, and as it is not very lethal (and will not self estinguish)
We will have to learn to live with it, another flu.and the first one to realise this will win economically.As far as i know, it has been life as usual in china for a while now, and i doubt vaccination made the difference


----------



## pozindustrial (12 July 2021)

August 31st 2020

“If something bad happens down the road after we start giving this vaccine to hundreds of thousands of people if not millions, that could cast a profound shadow, not only over other COVID-19 vaccines that are being tested, but over vaccines generally, and it would fuel the vaccine-hesitant and anti-vaccine movement,” he said.

“One of the potential dangers if you prematurely let a vaccine out is that it would make it difficult, if not impossible, for the other vaccines to enroll people in their trial,” he said.

“We don’t though have any intention of using emergency use authorization to take a vaccine of suboptimal effect or an unproven vaccine, to bring it forward. That would be doing such a disservice here,” he said.

Above quotes are from this article: https://www.healthline.com/health-n...ine-too-early-could-cause-more-harm-than-good

Adverse reaction data from last week July 2021 - only USA

"Data released today by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) included 9,049 reports of deaths, across all age groups, following COVID vaccines — an increase of more than 2,000 compared with the previous week. The data comes directly from reports submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)."

I guess something bad has happened down the road.


----------



## qldfrog (12 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> August 31st 2020
> 
> “If something bad happens down the road after we start giving this vaccine to hundreds of thousands of people if not millions, that could cast a profound shadow, not only over other COVID-19 vaccines that are being tested, but over vaccines generally, and it would fuel the vaccine-hesitant and anti-vaccine movement,” he said.
> 
> ...



Science is so mistreated lately...
Under the name of science, utter rubbish wrapped as science is used for political or economic motives with Covid, global warming, or even things like plastic in sea.
A bit like stats, twist the narrative, omit bits here or there and you get what you want.
I think i remember a time where some scientists would raise and point to issues or integrity conflicts but now, they are working for politically biased employers, or corporation and speaking out means ended career and uber driving .look at the james cook saga here.
It will hit back on mankind..my feeling as i am obviously a "real" science believer..but i may be wrong


----------



## rederob (12 July 2021)

@qldfrog regularly provides false "facts", as this claim is not true:
_"Just a simple science fact: deadly viruses will morth into more contagious and less lethal..you can read such postings i made more than a year ago,"_​
Then we have @pozindustrial who I have yet to see display any ability to understand data, and seems to post from discredited websites. For example, while CDC data may show week on week increases in deaths, the fact is that covid deaths have been declining:


As @noirua notes, economies adopting strong containment measures can do reasonably well while covid runs rampant elsewhere.


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

Result: 




With the banks reporting this week and the stress tests already completed, buybacks now being allowed, dividends coming out etc etc it's time to strike with the swing play again.


----------



## Knobby22 (13 July 2021)

It's interesting, all the pundits talking up interest rates and then they drop.


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> It's interesting, all the pundits talking up interest rates and then they drop.



Every talking head I ever saw (and I agree with them) was talking about the inflation being transitory for, well, the whole time. So much so it became annoying. 

I spent considerable time explaining that it was a supply side issue too?


----------



## Knobby22 (13 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Every talking head I ever saw (and I agree with them) was talking about the inflation being transitory for, well, the whole time. So much so it became annoying.
> 
> I spent considerable time explaining that it was a supply side issue too?



Yes, you aren't one of them.

I was just listening to a guy and a woman on the radio only last week at different times who said inflation was going to rise and interest rates were going up by the start of next year. Talking heads.
The Reserve Bank governor gave much better info.

Thanks over9k for the decent information/comments.


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Yes, you aren't one of them.
> 
> I was just listening to a guy and a woman on the radio only last week at different times who said inflation was going to rise and interest rates were going up by the start of next year. Talking heads.
> The Reserve Bank governor gave much better info.
> ...



Oh I'm talking U.S based - I don't have anything to do with the ASX except pure degen spec plays.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> We will have to learn to live with it, another flu.and the first one to realise this will win economically.



The problem I see with that is the political one and in particular the question of how it arose in the first place? There's a huge can of worms there that political leaders are going to be very wary of.

Economically that also has massive implications. If the "lab" theory were found to be correct, and the virus is accepted as being something that can't be eradicated, then it's pretty hard to see that not ending up with some major fallout so far as trade and so on are concerned.

Even if you're 100% correct, I expect there'll be a reluctance for anyone to acknowledge it publicly for that reason, it's opening a can of worms.


----------



## qldfrog (13 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The problem I see with that is the political one and in particular the question of how it arose in the first place? There's a huge can of worms there that political leaders are going to be very wary of.
> 
> Economically that also has massive implications. If the "lab" theory were found to be correct, and the virus is accepted as being something that can't be eradicated, then it's pretty hard to see that not ending up with some major fallout so far as trade and so on are concerned.
> 
> Even if you're 100% correct, I expect there'll be a reluctance for anyone to acknowledge it publicly for that reason, it's opening a can of worms.



Sooner or later, the truth will pop its head..but yes it will pushed and pushed and the weaker ones will refuse to being wrong .
We could still find communists in the 90s denying gulags/USSR work camps.
In the same way, we will have people in 20y denying the Wuhan origin or the actual low lethality of the initial variants.
I have to put a caveat here as we are breeding the killer one with our response....


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

Edit: 

More good banking news: 








						JPMorgan’s investment bankers notch record quarter on M&A flurry - BNN Bloomberg
					

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investment bankers posted their best quarter ever as a record first half in dealmaking bolstered the bottom line.




					www.bnnbloomberg.ca
				



JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s investment bankers posted their best quarter ever as a record first half in dealmaking bolstered the bottom line.

Fees from advising on mergers and underwriting stocks and bonds soared 25 per cent in the second quarter, smashing analysts’ estimates and boosting net income to US$11.9 billion. The firm released US$3 billion in reserves it had previously set aside for bad loans, almost twice as much as analysts had predicted.

The report marks the banking industry’s first look into the economic reopening in the U.S. made possible by widespread vaccinations in recent months. Pandemic-induced volatility led to a string of banner quarters on Wall Street trading desks, and while that boom is quieter now, mergers and acquisitions surged in the first six months of 2021.

Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the investment-banking gains were driven by an active market for M&A as well as acquisition financing in debt capital markets.

“This quarter we once again benefited from a significant reserve release as the environment continues to improve, but as we have said before, we do not consider these core or recurring profits,” Dimon said Tuesday in a statement.

JPMorgan shares fell 1.6 per cent to US$155.48 at 6:56 a.m. in early New York trading after gaining 24 per cent this year.

The firm reported US$3.57 billion in investment-banking fees, topping analysts’ expectation of US$3.1 billion. M&A advisory fees rose 52 per cent to US$916 million. Debt underwriting was up 26 per cent to US$1.6 billion and equity underwriting gained 9 per cent to US$1.1 billion.

The bank’s traders generated US$6.8 billion of revenue in the quarter, down 30 per cent from a year earlier but above the US$6.4 billion analysts expected.


----------



## Gunnerguy (13 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Sooner or later, the truth will pop its head..but yes it will pushed and pushed and the weaker ones will refuse to being wrong .
> We could still find communists in the 90s denying gulags/USSR work camps.
> In the same way, we will have people in 20y denying the Wuhan origin or the actual low lethality of the initial variants.
> I have to put a caveat here as we are breeding the killer one with our response....



Yes it’s going to be interesting about the Wuhan Lab.
I think it will take a long time ( years) for the truth to come out especially as the US were directly involved in setting up and sponsoring the lab through personnel and finance. Not 100% obviously as it’s on Chinese soil, but provided funds, IP , and personnel.
Really don’t know how this is going to turn out. The ‘West’ wants the ‘truth’ but the US don’t actually want the truth to come out.
GG


----------



## over9k (13 July 2021)

And then: 




BOOM.


----------



## qldfrog (14 July 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> Yes it’s going to be interesting about the Wuhan Lab.
> I think it will take a long time ( years) for the truth to come out especially as the US were directly involved in setting up and sponsoring the lab through personnel and finance. Not 100% obviously as it’s on Chinese soil, but provided funds, IP , and personnel.
> Really don’t know how this is going to turn out. The ‘West’ wants the ‘truth’ but the US don’t actually want the truth to come out.
> GG



The lab was build by the French and opened by the french prime minister...
A good complete collaboration of the west that the chinese army scientists leveraged to ping pong back  covid to us.
purposedly or not,while our leaders used covid for submission and political geopolitical games, China managed to overtake the US in a quarter of the time it would have needed without.
1 y covid and china is now ahead.we will reflect on this in the coming years


----------



## frugal.rock (14 July 2021)

Remember over a year ago when the degenerates all said that masks were useless and we didn't need them?

I had thought "have none of these pricks been outside in cold weather to see the plume of moisture that you breathe out like a cloud of smoke...and then there's "steaming" with sweat...

I know they were really panicking about a run on masks and then having medicoes people's not having any....

I shut my trap at the time for the better good... however, we were all bald faced lied to.... day dot.

There, I said it. It's off my chest.

I don't think I mentioned I think I had covid in late October 2019 after returning from Beijing....
worst flu ever, woke up a couple of times a bit panicked having trouble breathing (no, not anxiety) but put it down to being a smoker... in retrospect, I had been smoking less than usual though....
In bed for 3 days and took it easy for a couple of weeks, no doctor trip.


----------



## qldfrog (14 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Remember over a year ago when the degenerates all said that masks were useless and we didn't need them?
> 
> I had thought "have none of these pricks been outside in cold weather to see the plume of moisture that you breathe out like a cloud of smoke...and then there's "steaming" with sweat...
> 
> ...



Yes,seems to match my relatives experience you were lucky,now they would put you in hospital and you'd become a guinea pig,like the poor soul who nearly died of an injection of MRI reactant here in Qld last week.
Then would be locked for your recovery


----------



## qldfrog (14 July 2021)

I also have lost a lot of trust in Australia.not Morrison or ALP,or the states jokers but the whole country.
People lining for anzac services at dawn but locking its own citizen both in and out,applying USSR style travel restriction with absolute support from the population inc the ones usually crying us a river to let illegal migrants in...
Australia brand has taken a hit and i see this affecting us two ways economically:
Less desirable place to go in the future for the migrants we need to attract, the young scientists, engineers and PhDs;
More exodus from our own brains once the home jail terms are completed.
And much longuer time for tourism recovery.
So in short,we are going to loose brains and tourism $ for decades..
I always ranted on how we had the risk to become the next Argentina.did quite well to avoid this in the last 2 decades but this crisis will be the pivot


----------



## pozindustrial (14 July 2021)

This is how to get the economy back on track in my opinion. Instead of subjecting  Australia to highly questionable, experimental vaccines and lockdowns we could successfully and quickly treat people by listening to medical experts instead of censoring them.









						Ivermectin obliterates 97 percent of Delhi cases
					

A 97% decline in Delhi cases with Ivermectin is decisive - period. It represents the last word in an epic struggle to save lives and preserve human rights. This graph




					www.thedesertreview.com


----------



## over9k (14 July 2021)

Great bit on shipping/containers:


----------



## over9k (15 July 2021)

Chip demand continues to surge: 




But a lot of this is already priced in (is anyone surprised by this?)


----------



## over9k (15 July 2021)

And here's the effect of printing 3+ trillion dollars, finally: 




Just in case anyone was wondering if cash is still trash (it is more than ever now).


----------



## over9k (16 July 2021)

Alright the financial god-king jpowell just testified to the senate and there was of course all the grandstanding BS from the politicians but there was a handful of key takeaways: 


*One:* That whilst inflation looks mental at the moment, there's massive base effects at play. When you compare it to feb of 2020 (just before the virus and lockdown meltdowns) it's actually only at about 2.5% over the longer trend. Goal is 2%, he noted that 2.5% is a bit above that, but he'd rather be higher than lower, which leads into the next point;

*Two:* That the fed is going to let inflation run hot and err on the side of "too much" employment and inflation than too little. He's in fact FAR more concerned about employment than he is inflation and his happiness with the unemployment rate is far outweighing his discontent with the inflation rate being 50 points above longer term goal. 

*Three: *That the fed is (sensibly in my opinion) using feb 2020 as its baseline, i.e that it wants to run things on a trend coming from THAT point. For this reason, comparing to june of 2020 after a significant period of deflation gives a massively distorted picture, i.e classic base effects. 

*Four: *That there's still significant product supply side constraints which haven't been alleviated yet and there's only so much he can do about them. The more these things improve, the lower the supply-side inflationary pressures. 


So with all of this in mind, what do we think markets have done in response? 






So like I mentioned before, the swing play(s) based on these inflation fears ebbing & flowing is well & truly back on the menu. Powell might have even inadvertently given us some forward guidance with a large rotation point being feb of next year 


Finally, we might have hit an inflection point in bonds if these fears continue so we need to keep a very close eye on the US10Y:




As there's a pretty obvious "what might be a trend break" that's just begun so we need to watch this like a hawk to work out which holdings (banks and tech) we need to flip in what direction (again). 





Fun times ahead!


----------



## wabullfrog (16 July 2021)

Brief chat with a truckie  this morning, his motor want kaput on his prime mover a couple of weeks ago & is unable to get a replacement.


----------



## qldfrog (16 July 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> Brief chat with a truckie  this morning, his motor want kaput on his prime mover a couple of weeks ago & is unable to get a replacement.



Do you know why, affected by transport?
I know container traffic was very tight early this year.i doubt factories closed?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 July 2021)

Meanwhile, life and (near) death at the coalface. Neighbour, 57, had a cardiac episode three weeks ago. Took a Uber to hospital. Five stents and a week later, he's home. A bit clapped out but rebooted.

 Last night, the knock on the door; he'd called ambo's. I go up to the road while partner stays with him, she's a RN. Ambulance here in 10, but then the fun. Full PPE, stern warnings to keep distance, asked several times if anyone is infectious, took at least 10-15 mins to prep before they even ventured to see the patient. 

anyway, he's OK, in observation.


----------



## wabullfrog (16 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Do you know why, affected by transport?
> I know container traffic was very tight early this year.i doubt factories closed?



 Australia is a very small segment of their market so we are low on the priority list, chip shortages also an issue & then you have the big fish in Oz that will get first dibs on any stock availability.


----------



## qldfrog (16 July 2021)

True,low priority and forgot about this chip shortage
that so called chip shortage would be worthwhile investigating, i wonder if it is a China control attempt, there is no way the few people buying a new pc created it, and factories for chips are highly robotised so have run undisturbed.
Anyone knowing of an article seriously looking at the numbers there?
Not some BS about WFH and zoom chip demands


----------



## over9k (17 July 2021)

Little good news this week sorry guys, everyone are losing their collective minds over this delta variant.


----------



## moXJO (18 July 2021)

I keep hearing about businesses closing due to stock shortages. A lot of issues with suppliers.


----------



## over9k (19 July 2021)

Depends on the business - any business in the business of maintaining old stuff is run off their feet. The local small engine shop near to me (sells chainsaws, mowers, all that kind of stuff) has a two month repair backlog and are having to actually turn work away.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2021)

moXJO said:


> I keep hearing about businesses closing due to stock shortages. A lot of issues with suppliers.



Are we talking Chinese or OS products or domestic?
Which shortage if we are supposedly back economically?
I find this hard to swallow,unless a sea container availability issue?
And Australia not being a priority..but we hear about US shortage too?


----------



## UMike (19 July 2021)

There is a lot of import issues. 
Whether it is customs here or country of origin or Covid checking of crew,

It is real and across all import varieties.


----------



## moXJO (19 July 2021)

Certain electronic components (not silicone chips) are simply not available. 
Timber is on backorder.
Then there is manufacturing equipment. 
It's pretty varied at the moment. 
Domestic stuff is having issues because they can't get the parts they need. 

I noticed some of my suppliers are constantly upping % costs every couple of months as well.

I was just about to build a granny flat for my parents in my backyard as well. Probably going to be 50% extra the way it's going.


----------



## moXJO (19 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Depends on the business - any business in the business of maintaining old stuff is run off their feet. The local small engine shop near to me (sells chainsaws, mowers, all that kind of stuff) has a two month repair backlog and are having to actually turn work away.



Most trades are 3-6 months backlog.


----------



## frugal.rock (19 July 2021)

moXJO said:


> I was just about to build a granny flat for my parents in my backyard as well. Probably going to be 50% extra the way it's going.



I have this idea as well, not for parents though.
I had figured a figure of 20~25% higher cost purely from covid situation.
Not in a hurry though as that would take away my trading cash...


----------



## moXJO (19 July 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I have this idea as well, not for parents though.
> I had figured a figure of 20~25% higher cost purely from covid situation.
> Not in a hurry though as that would take away my trading cash...



I can steel frame on poles, clad walls, roof, internal walls, windows to lock up stage (bare internals for about $25-$30k (that's a kit). Might source all the stuff myself though and do it cheaper.
Finishing the inside will probably be another $30k with appliances. That's doing it myself.

The headache of doing it myself is the real cost. Lucky I had a lot of kids.


----------



## wayneL (20 July 2021)

Is this what economists call an "externality"?


----------



## qldfrog (20 July 2021)

I believe the people in charge of the reset could not care less about the planet as long as they can jet to the maldives and visir NP znd Florence wo the hords of lesser people.


----------



## noirua (21 July 2021)

Europe’s economic outlook has been clouded by the Delta variant. (Published 2021)
					

Virus cases are surging, governments are returning to economic restrictions and the postpandemic recovery now seems further away.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## qldfrog (21 July 2021)

noirua said:


> Europe’s economic outlook has been clouded by the Delta variant. (Published 2021)
> 
> 
> Virus cases are surging, governments are returning to economic restrictions and the postpandemic recovery now seems further away.
> ...



So,the solution is to vaccinate everyone with a vaccine which may or may not kill you, does not orevent you from catching the virus, does not prevent you from being contagious and does not prevent you from endding in hospital or dying.
As a result,we carry on lockdown which basically do only slow the spread.
We managed this way to kill our economies, extend the epidemy from a quick 1y or sowildfire to a slower burning multi years consuming all carnage, which will now only maybe end when everyone will have been contaminated and the 1 or 2 pc death rate achieved.
How the hell can iur economy survive this mismanagement?
10000s overseas military personnel arrived in central Queensland from US, Korea, Canada, UK,etc while a restaurant owner can not open fully in sydney or you can not cross a state border to do a job there?
What a shamble under the name of science...


----------



## noirua (21 July 2021)

Limited reply to qldfrog as I'm finding difficulty logging in from my domain.  So I'm posting whilst logged out which is a bit odd but I can't search or do anything else. 

Most countries are in a bit of a pickle over the new Delta Variant. On CNN they recon this new variant spreads more in powder form than droplets that float in the air and is 1,000 times easier to catch.  New cases are over 45,000 a day in the UK and deaths are rising. Cases in America are rising fast and the death rate has risen again to about 259 per day.  Australia should be OK as the complete shutdown methods seem to work better.  The UK is all over the shop though vaccinations are going ahead well and probably only second place to Israel.  America has got so far but vaccine resistance is a problem over there.


----------



## qldfrog (21 July 2021)

noirua said:


> Limited reply to qldfrog as I'm finding difficulty logging in from my domain.  So I'm posting whilst logged out which is a bit odd but I can't search or do anything else.
> 
> Most countries are in a bit of a pickle over the new Delta Variant. On CNN they recon this new variant spreads more in powder form than droplets that float in the air and is 1,000 times easier to catch.  New cases are over 45,000 a day in the UK and deaths are rising. Cases in America are rising fast and the death rate has risen again to about 259 per day.  Australia should be OK as the complete shutdown methods seem to work better.  The UK is all over the shop though vaccinations are going ahead well and probably only second place to Israel.  America has got so far but vaccine resistance is a problem over there.



Thanks for your effort.seems posting worked.
The real question is does vaccine really work and help, and if we have agreed that 2% death rate is unacceptable..the basis for killing our economy,is 1% ok after vaccination knowing we have no idea if the vaccinated masses today will not die of unknow consequences in 5y time, or if our lockdown and vaccins strategy is not in fact breeding a super killer.
The first mRNA vaccine tried against dengue fever in the Philippines killed 600 kids..as we realised after the fact that people who had had no previous exposure overreacted in contact ..a rough summary...but you can read about this yourself.

So who know what will happen when mRNA vaccinated people are exposed to a new variant of a similar or different virus in a year time.I do not know..which is ok..but neither does anyone..which is definitively not ok.
That summarises my view based on what i could find as information.
If the risk factor is good: over 65 or already sick:get the shot, otherwise your own interest is to do nothing.
I hear..but what about community interest?
Sure, when is a community interest to potentially sacrifice the below 60y old to save the above 60?
Even if i approach that threshold, i still consider i should die before my kids/grandkids..and so should we?


----------



## pozindustrial (21 July 2021)

Yesterday Boris Johnson’s chief medical adviser told viewers that 60% of the hospital cases had been double vaccinated


----------



## over9k (21 July 2021)

Need more info on that poz. Moderna reckon their jab is about 90% effective?


----------



## pozindustrial (21 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Need more info on that poz. Moderna reckon their jab is about 90% effective?



No problem, I watched the broadcast, they tried to remove it, but it was publicly televised. Then they tried to say he made a mistake, but that was definitely not the case. Why was it not on our news?https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/07...uk-hospitals-with-covid-19-are-double-jabbed/


----------



## explod (21 July 2021)

Are well, just party:





__





						UK Government Advisor Admits Masks Are Just "Comfort Blankets" That Do Virtually Nothing | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


----------



## divs4ever (21 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> So,the solution is to vaccinate everyone with a vaccine which may or may not kill you, does not orevent you from catching the virus, does not prevent you from being contagious and does not prevent you from endding in hospital or dying.
> As a result,we carry on lockdown which basically do only slow the spread.
> We managed this way to kill our economies, extend the epidemy from a quick 1y or sowildfire to a slower burning multi years consuming all carnage, which will now only maybe end when everyone will have been contaminated and the 1 or 2 pc death rate achieved.
> How the hell can iur economy survive this mismanagement?
> ...



 given the virus has been known for 18 months now  and international borders were NOT closed properly  , and hotel quarantine  became problematic  , i think it is safe to assume 70% of the Australian population  has had the opportunity to survive the virus ( including most of those in care homes  , paradoxically )

 governments and currencies rely on trust  , prepare for what comes next


----------



## divs4ever (21 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> No problem, I watched the broadcast, they tried to remove it, but it was publicly televised. Then they tried to say he made a mistake, but that was definitely not the case. Why was it not on our news?https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/07...uk-hospitals-with-covid-19-are-double-jabbed/




 mind you .. to be fair , before the jab roll-out , they left the old to die in care homes and persuaded the sick NOT to seek medical treatment  until near the point of collapse 

 so now you CAN get hospital treatment , whether jabbed or not  , so of course there will plenty of the jabbed in hospital   haven't seen many Tik Tok videos lately maybe the staff are actually busy now


----------



## pozindustrial (21 July 2021)

From the beginning of Covid I have always known that avoidance and vaccines are futile. You are all seeing this now. It is crazy to lock a country's borders to keep us safe because all we are doing is delaying the inevitable. 
This is what you need for 100% protection, I have used it for years, it costs (for the micropulser) between $300 and $600 depending on where you purchase and it will protect you for the rest of your lives for the cost of an occasional 9v battery.
Here is the literature, but I mostly use the wrist micropulser, not the four protocols. 
https://www.bobbeck.com/pdfs/beck-protocol-handbook.pdf 
I have no interest in this other than seeing you and others fully protected without side effects and without having to be an experimental, drug-company mouse for every new virus the emerges in the future.
Please read everything on the website, not just the manual so that you understand that this is genuine, has been around for 20+ years, was developed by a brilliant physicist for all the world and the plans to build your own given away free.
Here are two site where you can purchase, but they have to advertise that it is for 'recreational use' so do not ask them about cures. The Bob Beck website does not sell, it is there for your complete information.
https://www.sota.com/default.aspx?page=Silver-Pulser Canadian dollars
http://members.iinet.net.au/~rsr/kz-05.html Australian dollars
When I come down with a virus I put on the wrist micropulser for 2-4hrs after which symptoms disappear, then I repeat for 2hrs for the next three days. That's it, provided you catch it early enough before the virus causes all the mucous and sinus problems. As soon as all your muscles ache use it.


----------



## rederob (21 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> The first mRNA vaccine tried against dengue fever in the Philippines killed 600 kids..as we realised after the fact that people who had had no previous exposure overreacted in contact ..a rough summary...but you can read about this yourself.



Called Dengvaxia, it caused an antibody-dependent enhancement (via cytoplasmic leakage syndrome) when administered to previously unaffected people, such that the immune response of the vaccine amplified the effect of in a person subsequently catching the virus.  Thus, the vaccine is only safe to be administered in a person who has previously been confirmed as having had dengue fever.  
The mRNA nature of Dengvaxia was not regarded as factor in the deaths.


----------



## noirua (21 July 2021)

qldfrog et al, ( still can't log in properly only post logged out). The UK had 96 deaths today way up on last week and the infection rate is out of control. A warning to Australia as this Delta Variant is so infectious and deadly for many not double vaccinated. - even if double vaccinated it can still kill you. America is finding more young children infected and suffering from long covid. The UK's Government's Health Secretary has contracted the Delta variant despite receiving two jabs. This is a war not just something to take a bit seriously.








						England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
					

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.




					coronavirus.data.gov.uk
				











						Americans warned against traveling to UK as Delta variant surges
					

"[E]ven fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants," the CDC said in a statement on Monday.




					www.newsweek.com
				











						Long COVID afflicts kids too. Here's what we know so far.
					

Many children can also experience lingering symptoms after getting COVID-19. But scientists are struggling for answers, so parents are banding together to find treatments and warn others of the risks.




					www.nationalgeographic.com


----------



## rederob (21 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> No problem, I watched the broadcast, they tried to remove it, but it was publicly televised. Then they tried to say he made a mistake, but that was definitely not the case. Why was it not on our news?https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/07...uk-hospitals-with-covid-19-are-double-jabbed/



The "they" was actually the *he*:


Or you could use data:


----------



## pozindustrial (21 July 2021)

Regarding the implications of Covid, I seriously think we will come out of all this much the same as we did after WW1&2. 

I think travel will be slow to get moving, domestic tourism and recreation will boom first, (I just invested in BCF (SUL ticker) for the recreation boom) shortages will be common, jobs will be snatched up, and another baby boomer revival will occur without the babies because fertility is a major problem and parents do not want a big bunch of kids.

I think it will be 2025 before things open up and a boom building for 10 years after that.

Not much else compares to nations across the globe shutting borders and restricting movements, massively reduced economies and skyrocketing government debt.


----------



## qldfrog (21 July 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Regarding the implications of Covid, I seriously think we will come out of all this much the same as we did after WW1&2.
> 
> I think travel will be slow to get moving, domestic tourism and recreation will boom first, (I just invested in BCF (SUL ticker) for the recreation boom) shortages will be common, jobs will be snatched up, and another baby boomer revival will occur without the babies because fertility is a major problem and parents do not want a big bunch of kids.
> 
> ...



sadly this is also usually mixed with booming taxes and property/asset seizures for the national interest!!!


----------



## qldfrog (21 July 2021)

noirua said:


> qldfrog et al, ( still can't log in properly only post logged out). The UK had 96 deaths today way up on last week and the infection rate is out of control. A warning to Australia as this Delta Variant is so infectious and deadly for many not double vaccinated. - even if double vaccinated it can still kill you. America is finding more young children infected and suffering from long covid. The UK's Government's Health Secretary has contracted the Delta variant despite receiving two jabs. This is a war not just something to take a bit seriously.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I never said it is not to be taken seriously, over 65 get vaccinated, below delta or not, let the virus run and die, if we do not let it run its course, it will NOT die..noone suggest seriously (not talking Guardian ABC) that you can really have covid then get reinfected as a general case..it will obviously happen in rare case, but this is an exception, not the rule.And if it was the rule, what would be the point of vaccines...
as always the question is what is the fatality rate?, can hospital treat you properly ? I am all for smooth the curve concept then if you kill the economy, how many people do you kill via poverty, lack of new hospital or tech developed, etc in the next 20y
people gloat about long covid potential unknown danger while getting mRNA jabs?
And the Greens campaign against GMO and yet  still support trial vaccines on millions???

Right now, we sacrifice the future for the current older generation.
this is not the way society should be in my opinion, and i am not prime buck anymore so in a way I benefit from that selfish attitude


----------



## cynic (21 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Need more info on that poz. Moderna reckon their jab is about 90% effective?



It may be worth noting that hospitalised cases might conceivably be less than 10% of the vaccinated populace. Naturally, more information would need to be considered to confirm.


----------



## pozindustrial (21 July 2021)

cynic said:


> It may be worth noting that hospitalised cases might conceivably be less than 10% of the vaccinated populace. Naturally, more information would need to be considered to confirm.



I think it is only the worst cases in hospital, not all the cases. 'Effectiveness' was a very loose term without a proper definition. I do believe others who pointed out that infection rates dropped with vaccinations so they must work to some extent, but I am not convinced it will allow us to travel and gather in large numbers and 'save the country' as we are led to believe.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 July 2021)

Tax after covid.









						When Australia's economy is healthy again, taxes are going to have to rise — big time
					

If we want the latest health care, disability care and aged care, we'll have to be prepared to pay for it, writes Peter Martin.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## qldfrog (21 July 2021)

cynic said:


> It may be worth noting that hospitalised cases might conceivably be less than 10% of the vaccinated populace. Naturally, more information would need to be considered to confirm.



vaccinated or not, far far less than 10% of infected required hospitalisation, otherwise, France and UK would really have been under..they were not..
Except in qld where it seems you are sent straight away as soon as tested positive and become a guinea pig for research...


----------



## wayneL (23 July 2021)

Assume the position, taxpaying plebeians.


----------



## divs4ever (23 July 2021)

IMO  QAN isn't even worth the pie in Joyce's face

  i inherited QAN ( and sold out in 2013  )  it didn't take me long to work out Joyce is a professional victim parading as a CEO

 somehow REX ( which i do NOT  hold ) is pushing ahead nicely  , 

so maybe the indutry needs a restructure ( i hope MQG a lessor of aircraft  doesn't suffer too much  i have a few of then )

 but of couse all those trough-feeders in Canberra will save their favourite meeting lounge


----------



## pozindustrial (23 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> IMO  QAN isn't even worth the pie in Joyce's face
> 
> i inherited QAN ( and sold out in 2013  )  it didn't take me long to work out Joyce is a professional victim parading as a CEO
> 
> ...




A story:

An Irishman wants a job, but the boss won’t hire him until he passes a simple math test. The boss says: 

“Here is your first question; without using numbers, represent the number 9.”​He says:

“Without numbers? That’s easy.” 
He proceeds to draw three trees :

​The boss asks:

“What the heck is this?”​To which he replies:

“Have you no brain? Tree and tree, plus tree makes 9.”
The boss responds:

“Okay, here is your second question.
Use the same rules, but this time the number is 99.”

He stares into space for a while, then picks up the picture that he has just drawn and makes a smudge on each tree.. “There ye go.”

​The boss scratches his head and says:
“How on earth do you get that to represent 99?”

To which he replies:
“Each of the trees is dirty now. So, it’s dirty tree, and dirty tree, plus dirty tree. Dat makes 99.”

The boss is getting worried that he’s actually going to have to hire the guy,
so he says:
“All right, last question. Same rules again,
but represent the number 100.”

He stares into space a bit,
then he picks up the picture and makes a little mark at the base of each tree and says, “Here ye go. One hundred.”

​The boss looks at the picture:
“You must be crazy if you think that represents a hundred!”

He leans forward and points to the marks at the base of each tree
and says:
“A little dog came along and pooped by each tree.
So now you got dirty tree and a turd, dirty tree and a turd,
and dirty tree and a turd, which makes 100.”

The boss had to employ the new man who rose through the ranks and is now the CEO of Qantas!


----------



## divs4ever (23 July 2021)

i'll probably stop giggling in a hour or two 

 good one !!


----------



## divs4ever (23 July 2021)

‘There will be some’: NAB CEO says Aussies will lose their houses​








						‘There will be some’: NAB CEO admits Aussies will lose their houses
					

By the time these lockdowns are over, some Australians will have had to sell their properties, this big four bank chief believes.




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




yep looks like some sort of mess coming


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 July 2021)

Mainstream media reporting of supply chain problems:









						‘Perilous moment’: Global supply chains buckle as variants and disasters strike
					

Events have conspired to drive global supply chains towards breaking point, threatening the fragile flow of raw materials, parts and consumer goods.




					www.smh.com.au
				






> A new worldwide wave of COVID-19. Natural disasters in China and Germany. A cyber attack targeting key South African ports.
> 
> Events have conspired to drive global supply chains towards breaking point




It seems to be not just the pandemic but also other factors at play here. Floods, computer problems and so on as well as the effects of the pandemic all combined.

Of note it mentions things like coal unable to be moved around within China. That'll then presumably result in flow-on effects with insufficient fuel / power and goods not being produced and so on which then creates a shortage of something else. Etc.


----------



## moXJO (25 July 2021)

Confirm that having problems with certain stock from China suppliers due to floods.


----------



## over9k (25 July 2021)




----------



## qldfrog (25 July 2021)

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk...andemic-cost-risks-decades-report-2021-07-24/
What a shamble, so imagine for us, still in lockdown...


----------



## divs4ever (25 July 2021)

UK health minister sparks fury by urging people not to 'cower from' COVID

https://www.investing.com/news/coro...urging-people-not-to-cower-from-covid-2567312

well that is one way to get them on the streets

 not a Shambles YET


----------



## divs4ever (25 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk...andemic-cost-risks-decades-report-2021-07-24/
> What a shamble, so imagine for us, still in lockdown...



 i have been to The Shambles  , it is a very interesting place 

 but you have to see it to understand it 

 BTW we don't have many cobble-stone streets in Australia


----------



## qldfrog (25 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i have been to The Shambles  , it is a very interesting place
> 
> but you have to see it to understand it
> 
> BTW we don't have many cobble-stone streets in Australia



Probably by design, to avoid using them as missiles in the next riot..
French revolution heritage 😁


----------



## divs4ever (25 July 2021)

going to be an interesting couple of years  coming 

 are the French on the verge of another revolution ??


----------



## qldfrog (25 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> going to be an interesting couple of years  coming
> 
> are the French on the verge of another revolution ??



no, they have been moved to the woke stage by 2 decades of leftist brainwash in the education system and 40 y of socialism, so 55% o voters agreeing on stealing and redistributing money from the top 45%
The academic level has collapsed so the mathematical and statistic knowledge needed to have a clear view of COVID/measures
They are as sheeples as the aussie average guys


----------



## divs4ever (25 July 2021)

maybe , but wait until they get  what they were promised

 a 0.1% elite  and everyone is equally poverty-stricken


----------



## basilio (25 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> maybe , but wait until they get  what they were promised
> 
> a 0.1% elite  and everyone is equally poverty-stricken



It's  all very delicate it my opinion. Out of control exceptionally infectious COVID.  Risks of death and illness overwhelming medical facilities and undermining much economic activity. And this on top of an economically catastrophic  last 15 months ?

Highly stressed financial markets around the world. A number of countries now teetering on actual collapse. South Africa ? South American counties ? Asian  ? What happens to their debts ? Who is on the hook ?

Crunches on supply chains which can effect multiple industries. Widespread simultaneous climate caused disasters. Floods, Fires, Drought. Again all of these impacting on National governments and their capacity to respond and protect their communities.

And don't even mention the economic/political conflicts between US and China.  Where can that go ?

In that context  what do we think could be/would be the response of stock markets around the world ? What do the actual  fundamentals of economic activity now look like vs throwing a few more trillion into supporting the markets ? 

If this starts to go down,  IMV the  automated stock market systems will accelerate the fall very, very quickly.


----------



## divs4ever (25 July 2021)

but i think the global economy collapsed in September 2019  when they resorted to Repo Madness  , all the rest MIGHT be a distraction 

 i am HOPING the stock market will be an income source no matter what the currency  , 

 if divs can pay my bills  i will be fine , i am pretty frugal already  , no car , no plane , no yacht , no beach house , no flash watch


----------



## qldfrog (26 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> maybe , but wait until they get  what they were promised
> 
> a 0.1% elite  and everyone is equally poverty-stricken



The error i see in your post is it will be 0.01%, an under class of military policing force and then the worms..
Not really slaves, there are no jobs, just a different version of slums economy.traffics, small cornerstore,petty crimes and recycling economy..yeahh CC is beaten


----------



## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

the military class run the risk of being replaced by machines , just as much as the factory worker , 

 but we will see , well some of us will 

 i notice an article in the news the deer running the streets in Sydney is a growing concern  , if fact one person in 2012  died when a vehicle collided with a deer   ,  starting  to look like the ruling class is losing control of their marbles


----------



## qldfrog (26 July 2021)

If you meant 2021 and not 2012
We have 
2021 Australia
covid 1: deer 1
Lets eradicate deers, let's provide shotguns to all available adults and 6y plus kids.wearing of slingshots and hunting knife mandatory.
I heard the deers in Europe have grown fangs
should i carry on?😂


----------



## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

i would rather have the deer roaming the streets than politicians 

 the deer have not been discovered to spread Covid yet 

 and remember in SOME counties deer are FOOD and sometimes transport ( and the hide can be useful as well )

 and OH WAIT the deer do NOT rely on tax-payer funding  either


----------



## over9k (27 July 2021)

NO IT CANNOT


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

​​Rigged! How to Invest in the Lockdown Economy — Economy Lockdown​








						Rigged! How to Invest in the Lockdown Economy
					

In today’s Money Morning three reasons why the ASX has nothing to do with economic health here’s where to invest in a rigged lockdown economy the game is rigged, but you don’t have to lose and more



					www.moneymorning.com.au
				




 maybe this article while stir up some discussion


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

Starpharma says nasal spray can stop Delta​








						Starpharma says nasal spray can stop Delta
					

A nasal spray being used to prevent COVID-19 is more than 99 per cent effective against the Delta variant sweeping the world, its maker claims.Melbourne-based biopharmaceutical group Starpharma on Tuesday published test results to show its Viraleze spray, already used in Europe and India, works...




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




 DYOR

 i do NOT hold this share 

  gee i wonder if Lorna Jane and Starpharma can apply for refunds of their fines 

 so far  both have kept up to the standards maintained by the 'narrative ' 

 like a recent headline in the MSM , farts transmit Covid  ( if THAT is not misinformation  .. and 'masks work'  LJ has money coming  )


----------



## moXJO (27 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> Starpharma says nasal spray can stop Delta​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Just add cocaine to it and Sydney cases will go to zero new infections within a 3 day period.


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

Surprising subject Aussie school students are ditching​








						Surprising subject Aussie school students are ditching
					

Aussie students are turning their backs on this core subject with experts warning it could greatly affect their financial situation. Find out what it is.




					au.finance.yahoo.com
				




 well  considering  the current economy predictions  , virus infection  modelling   and PE of the stock-market  where is the incentive to learn 

 most of then can just make sh*t up just fine already


----------



## moXJO (27 July 2021)

How are other states apart from nsw travelling?

I'm worried we will have an initial pump with some catch up work and then drop off a cliff.


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

well i haven't seen anything from Tasmania  , so they are either all dead , or going fine 

 the rest of them are  alive and screaming for more stimulus and bail-outs 

.. so i guess there is a Federal Election coming 

 we are well over that cliff sitting on a cloud of dreams ( future tax revenue )


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> well i haven't seen anything from Tasmania  , so they are either all dead , or going fine
> 
> the rest of them are  alive and screaming for more stimulus and bail-outs
> 
> ...




Wage earners should assume the position forthwith.

Businesses and the self-employed should start thinking very carefully how not to get cornholed by the government going forward.

Me... I'm seriously thinking about an alternative lifestyle.


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

WIND ROSE - Diggy Diggy Hole (Official Video) | Napalm Records​


 your choice   a good place for your goodies or a full bunker complex 

 ( the opal fields are easy digging , but can be a bit hot )


----------



## boofhead (27 July 2021)

Tasmania is now 447 days free of the virus in the community.

Increasing use of an app when visiting commercial places etc.


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

good work Tasmania 

 just stop politicians and sporting folk from the mainland and it should be a breeze


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> good work Tasmania
> 
> just stop politicians and sporting folk from the mainland and it should be a breeze



As a general thing I think the smaller population states are going to come out of this much better than the larger ones.

Tas, SA, WA, NT have all been able to retain something reasonably close to "normal" most of the time throughout this, imperfect but overall they've kept most business etc running.


----------



## frugal.rock (27 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i would rather have the deer roaming the streets than politicians



Dunno about that, depends on whether you are a cannibal or not... but yes, would much prefer to be carving up a wayward buck on my car bonnet 😅
(Joke of course, I don't condone violence unless they really do need a good smack for causing trouble...)


moXJO said:


> Just add cocaine to it and Sydney cases will go to zero new infections within a 3 day period.



I reckon nicotine should come back into fashion... would like to see stats on smokers catching it!?

Although if a smoker did get it, probably game over if you didn't cease smoking  immediatly.

Meanwhile, NSW continues down the path of Draconian policing under the guise of  the public interest of law n order.

RnR used to mean rest n recreation, now, it means REVENUE RAISING.
Caveat; not particularly directed around vivid policy policing, but vowing to fine everyone who was protesting?


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

would depend on how you tested  the 'infected'  some tests  will flag anything ( maybe even nothing  )

 if NSW votes either major party back in next election they deserve what they get ( a bloody politician )


----------



## over9k (28 July 2021)

Lockdown payments increase to $750, Aussies on Centrelink get $200 boost
					

The COVID-19 Disaster Payment will be increased amid the Sydney lockdown, while Australians on Centrelink will also receive extra support. Read more.




					au.yahoo.com
				









Much of Australia is virtually back to square one.


----------



## pozindustrial (28 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Lockdown payments increase to $750, Aussies on Centrelink get $200 boost
> 
> 
> The COVID-19 Disaster Payment will be increased amid the Sydney lockdown, while Australians on Centrelink will also receive extra support. Read more.
> ...



Another story in response. Food for thought. Nothing else.

​
_When free people come to accept it's okay to live off the spoils of others, they don't care if new promises can't be paid for. They just want them and they want them now even at their own peril_. - Webmaster




> > A teacher from Jennings, Florida, on the Georgia border wrote the most eye-opening civics lesson I had ever seen while recently teaching in an elementary school. It was the middle of 2008 when the presidential election was really heating up on television screens in American homes and children were showing an interest.
> > With permission, I decided to try the civic's lesson plan in my own classroom.
> > The concept was simple.
> > The class would hold an election for class president. This would help them to understand the process that was going on around them, hopefully reflecting what some parents might be saying at the dining room table.
> > ...



Some people think my views are socialist, but the above is probably the opposite. I just like to look at all sides and contemplate. I like the saying "There are three sides to every story, his, hers and the truth.


----------



## over9k (30 July 2021)

Linus with a great video on the chips shortage issue and all the contagion that's come out of that (copper and so on). 

I pointed all of this out months ago but still nice to see a big/mainstream name explaining it to the regular joe.


----------



## over9k (1 August 2021)

Worth a watch from 4.58


----------



## frugal.rock (1 August 2021)

I notice inflation is back on the agenda.
Where are we at with that?

A search on ASX inflation trade stocks comes up with a few, one being A2M....really? What the?
Why is a ailing milk company a good inflation trade?

Regardless, I think we should remember that retail doesn't understand that inflation is transitory, and once prices go up, they generally stay up.
A few exceptions like fuel etc


----------



## over9k (1 August 2021)

Banks are the place to be with inflation, assuming it becomes runaway and they pump interest rates to contain it. We saw this through march etc - the banks ran on that exact fear.


----------



## over9k (2 August 2021)

Big banks now calling for rates to be raised/saying it's time to do so: 




Talking heads reckon it'll happen in Q4. 

Meanwhile, 10 year yields still haven't cracked the previous point at which the markets lost their minds back in feb after the snowstorm: 




With the delta variant carryon well & truly over: 




Our two questions are whether yields are going to hit that 1.15 point and then get moving again and with summer now being in the rear view mirror the environment is only going to get more & more infectious between both the cold itself and simple fact that the cold keeps more people indoors and thus spreading the virus amongst them. 

So in short, it's hard to say whether simple seasonality might effect the data (i.e it'll be worse than the fed wants before it starts tapering) and so we'll need to wait for winter to be in the rear vision mirror for interest rates to bounce again. 


But whether the tapering starts q4 2021 or Q1 2022, either way, it's still a bull market because the fed's effectively told us they're only going to stop the printing presses when they're more than sure the economy can take up the slack, so whether it's organic growth or artificial, from our perspective it doesn't matter, we still keep holding _everything. _

This is modern monetary "theory" at work.


----------



## over9k (3 August 2021)

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 2021 deficit will be slightly less than last year’s total at $2.3 trillion. 
But, this is pretty much bullsh*t as it does not include:

The $1.9 trillion (TRILLION!!!) stimulus package passed by congress; or 
The proposed $1.7 trillion infrastructure package currently in the works.
So, we can take that $2.3 trillion (which took decades of fiscal mismanagement to achieve) and 2.5X it. 

Let that sink in… the USA is now on track to effectively triple its deficit in a 1-bloody-year!  

Look at this chart:


Note: The red line ONLY includes the 2020 deficit. The dotted line represents the $1.9 trillion stimulus package… the remaining ~$4 trillion deficit still has to be added on top of the dotted line!

Notice how the blue line (gold price) has yet to catch up to the rapidly increasing red line (fiscal deficit)? 

Well… if the last 30 years of known data are any indication, it’s going to.  



Gold hasn’t even caught up to the 2020 deficit, let alone the coming astronomical 2021 deficit. 






						Buy Gold or Buy Biden (roadhouse)
					






					resourceinsider.com


----------



## divs4ever (3 August 2021)

only triple ???

 i think there was more cash splashed than that  , look when the debt ceiling limit has been hit this year  ( considering the limit was suspended last year )

 ALSO the stimulus is unlikely to stop this year  ( no matter what Congress and Senate vote )

 but good on you for asking the question 

 cheers

 another question MIGHT  will non-government ( US ) entities continue buying Treasury Bonds  ( if the Fed buys almost all of them  directly ... that has got to effect the credit-ratings  on the Bonds )


----------



## pozindustrial (3 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> only triple ???
> 
> i think there was more cash splashed than that  , look when the debt ceiling limit has been hit this year  ( considering the limit was suspended last year )
> 
> ...



Most of you would have seen this from Investing.com today. Tells how much debt Australia is buying.


By Oliver Gray

Investing.com - The Australian Dollar lifted to near 2-week highs of 0.7406 against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday after policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised market participants as they held firm on their current tapering timeline, despite protracted lockdowns across the country, citing a stronger than expected economic recovery from previous lockdown periods. _*Officials maintained the current cash rate at 0.1% and will continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $5 billion a week until early September and then $4 billion a week until at least mid November.*_


----------



## divs4ever (3 August 2021)

would be interesting to see if the debt purchased  is State or Federal or a combination of both ( states issue a fair amount of bonds and bills as well )

but let's see what really happens with the RBA


----------



## over9k (3 August 2021)

Headline says it all. AU's tapering anyway. 

One thing I would note is that we're heading into summer (so a less infectious environment) here rather than winter there.


----------



## divs4ever (3 August 2021)

but this virus is very clever , it knows to lurk during curfews ,  gets more active before Public Holidays and religious festivals , and much prefers cruise liners but abhors rioters and adulterous government officials


----------



## qldfrog (4 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> but this virus is very clever , it knows to lurk during curfews ,  gets more active before Public Holidays and religious festivals , and much prefers cruise liners but abhors rioters and adulterous government officials



This virus is a legend,managed to keep a whole state at home early this week with just 9 representatives having RNR,not even in active duties.
But 5 billions a week,bloody overpaid these covid guys are...


----------



## divs4ever (4 August 2021)

maybe we need a virus for premier ( or PM )

 they don't say much  but cause a lot to change  ( and both still get up your nose )


----------



## over9k (5 August 2021)

More lockdowns for aus now, with basically the whole eastern seaboard on lockdown: 

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-cases-and-five-deaths-as-delta-spreads-north 

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ing-considered-after-eight-new-cases-recorded 

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-waits-to-see-if-lockdown-will-lift-on-sunday 


All eyes on the exchange rate.


----------



## over9k (5 August 2021)

Remember that we have a bit of deja-vu going on with this delta variant at the moment. 

Energy is plummeting: 




Whilst the stay-at-home stuff like microchips and the vaccine makers is surging again: 




But remember, this flipped as soon as these fears went before and they will again with this delta variant. 


In short, there's going to be a massive swing play to be had here, so we watch the data and carryon on the news like a hawk.


----------



## over9k (5 August 2021)

Also, a lot of talking heads postulating that the 10 year yield is as low as it is because the rest of the world is getting slammed by the delta variant much harder than the USA on account of the USA leading the world in vaccinations. Classic flight to safety. 

Sounds quite plausible - but if the delta variant nukes global supply chains again, we'll see rapid inflation (again). 

The big difference is that now the ports won't be nearly the choke points they were before, but as is pointed out here: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...t-prices-aren-t-part-of-the-inflation-problem 

A containerload of smartphones or something holding 7 figures' worth of gear doesn't see much of a change to a few thousand bucks added to its shipping costs. It's a drop in the ocean for that kind of good. 

Combine that with the vaccine rollouts and I just can't see the inflation fears of last time being nearly as bad now. Whatever inflation we're likely to see will be as a result of the money printing rather than supply constraints, and it was the supply constraints that drove it last time. 


Long story short, whilst all the inflation jitters exist with good reason, I think it overblown. Some simple tapering and things are back to (relative) normal. 


I already posted how the RBA is still going to start tapering despite all these lockdowns with the delta variant and so on, and the BOE has just announced its start as well: 




So it would appear that the taps are finally starting to be closed. This is a pretty solid sign of confidence from the central banks.


----------



## divs4ever (5 August 2021)

a flight to safety with the current US Government backing .. NOT with my cash thanks

 i notice elsewhere Western money is trickling into Chinese Government bonds ( not that my money is going there either )


----------



## over9k (5 August 2021)

Here's your long term outlook: 







Versus:




Money has an any-port-in-a-storm approach and the USD is the best port by miles.


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

So with vaccine & chip makers now plummeting and everything else, particularly energy, absolutely screaming today: 




It would appear that the swing point was actually yesterday. Lol. 

Well, better one moment too late than five moments too early!


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...reak-not-slowing-down-despite-6-week-lockdown 

"Sydney cases not slowing despite 6 week lockdown" 




As I said before, this genie isn't going to be put back in the bottle. I suspect the new clock on this is going to be how long before they just give up like the U.K did?


----------



## pozindustrial (6 August 2021)

Yep, been saying that all along. Vaccines will not give us the freedom we are led to believe. It makes me sick to listen to everyone on TV say the same thing - Vaccination is our way out of lockdown, if everyone gets vaccinated we will be safe, etc.". Safer perhaps because it does seem to work to an extent, but the answer to safely travelling and gathering NO! I am not bashing vaccines although I would like to do that. Some people have very little choice so they should risk it. Most people will not be affected much and do not need it, and the vaccinated keep getting infected again so our leaders need a different tack. This one will never work. I believe that the possible economic implications will be most negatively felt when they do try to open up and it backfires. It looks like that has already begun. After a few more tries people will become very disillusioned. There does not seem to be a plan B other than more jabs. Bad way to go. Who here never has a plan B?


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

but more jabs are so profitable ( because they are already raising the prices on the boosters )



 these guys even make drug pushers look charitable


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

Moderna already saying they reckon most in the USA will need another booster shot before winter. 

So that makes three jabs per person.


----------



## pozindustrial (6 August 2021)

This blog (5min read) by a Dr. who did a thesis for a PhD on the decline of diseases in Aust by 1950 and the role of vaccines explains how herd immunity occurs and is being hijacked this time, and that traditional measures for controlling infectious diseases were reversed for the first time in history by the WHO that falsely claimed that healthy (asymptomatic) people are a risk to the community if the virus is identified in their body.

IMO the water this time is so muddy it is very difficult to logically predict any outcome of Covid let alone an economic one.


----------



## qldfrog (6 August 2021)

The big economic impact of covid is the Reset using it as a pretext, 
so no more ice and in short no individual transport for the commoners or long distance travel, even less flights.
No more meat, tax on water, air,and land pushing sme and family farms to bankrupsy:
high density housing, no go wilderness and historic areas..again..for the commoners but not the master
As individual, you own nothing..but are happy with universal income
will be a shock here country of the RE madness.
Invest accordingly and yes the fangs will be around


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> This blog (5min read) by a Dr. who did a thesis for a PhD on the decline of diseases in Aust by 1950 and the role of vaccines explains how herd immunity occurs and is being hijacked this time, and that traditional measures for controlling infectious diseases were reversed for the first time in history by the WHO that falsely claimed that healthy (asymptomatic) people are a risk to the community if the virus is identified in their body.
> 
> IMO the water this time is so muddy it is very difficult to logically predict any outcome of Covid let alone an economic one.



one trick was perverting the PCR  into being a diagnostic test ( instead of a research tool )

Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci ‘Doesn’t Know Anything’ And Is Willing To Lie On Television​








						Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci 'Doesn't Know Anything' And Is Willing To Lie On Television - National File
					

Kary Mullis, who won a 1993 Nobel Prize for inventing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing process later used to diagnose Coronavirus cases, said that Dr. Anthony Fauci lacks knowledge …




					nationalfile.com
				






 RIP , 
Kary Mullis​
one might also give the last rites to medicine as well


----------



## rederob (6 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> This blog (5min read) by a Dr. who did a thesis for a PhD on the decline of diseases in Aust by 1950 and the role of vaccines explains how herd immunity occurs and is being hijacked this time, and that traditional measures for controlling infectious diseases were reversed for the first time in history by the WHO that falsely claimed that healthy (asymptomatic) people are a risk to the community if the virus is identified in their body.
> 
> IMO the water this time is so muddy it is very difficult to logically predict any outcome of Covid let alone an economic one.



It's a shame that social media is around and that ill informed people spread this dribble.
The "Dr" (a PhD) is a well known anti-vaxxer who has lots of opinions and zero medical knowledge.
The claim relied on in this post - that asymptomatic people are *not *a risk - is proven false and reflects the ignorance that prevails when people choose ideology over science.
The further claim that a PCR test *cannot *detect covid-19 should be laughed at by everyone, rather than believed.
The linked blog is a train wreck  of misleading and false medical science claims.
The funniest part is that this "Dr" does not understand how *virus *and *disease *are properly used in the English language.


----------



## rederob (6 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> one trick was perverting the PCR  into being a diagnostic test ( instead of a research tool )
> 
> Inventor of PCR Test Said Fauci ‘Doesn’t Know Anything’ And Is Willing To Lie On Television​
> 
> ...



Always check your sources.


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

there was a lovely video of the late Kary Mullis saying precisely that PLUS the test  could not prove you were infectious , just you had some DNA ( or RNA ) in that sample 

 and well there are enough videos of Fauchi speaking on camera to judge for yourself , start with 'herd immunity ' , if truly bored go back to the HIV days 

 and THEN  you can check the debate  on the PCR test as patented to detect Covid 19 ( not SARS Cov 2 which is the actual virus )

 a much better gauge would be an antibody test using a blood sample , which would show your body is fighting ( or has recently fought ) the virus


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> there was a lovely video of the late Kary Mullis saying precisely that PLUS the test  could not prove you were infectious , just you had some DNA ( or RNA ) in that sample
> 
> and well there are enough videos of Fauchi speaking on camera to judge for yourself , start with 'herd immunity ' , if truly bored go back to the HIV days
> 
> ...



Not practical though. 

There's no perfect solution to this and these lockdowns just... aren't going to work. 


Again, the only question to ask is when they're going to give up.


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

well they have a 'rapid test' ( a saliva test )  far from perfect but relatively quick 

 much better than hoping a tested person will self-isolate until the results come through  

 i reckon the government will give up when there is a tax revolt  or a ( government ) worker revolt   , there are only so many military to fill the gaps


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

Nah, they'll keep the printing presses open until currency collapse forces the public's hand, which isn't going to happen in the next few weeks. There's not going to be any kind of revolution or whatever. 

As I said, they'll just give up at some point like the U.K did.


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

i would like to think you are correct on the revolution  , but some have been severely hurt during this ( delayed medical treatments and financial damage )

 i am not willing to bet against  a revolt 

 ( i hold VUK and JHG  , so would feel an impact if there was )

 cheers


----------



## againsthegrain (6 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i would like to think you are correct on the revolution  , but some have been severely hurt during this ( delayed medical treatments and financial damage )
> 
> i am not willing to bet against  a revolt
> 
> ...




Probably not in Australia,  people have never experienced prolonged hurt or anger at the government.  A few pot plants at cops heads is probably as extreme as it gets,  then get sugar coated with printed $ for the masses. 

Russia, East europe or Latin America is a different story where whole generations are born hating the corrupt govts


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

well we have a reasonably high proportion of migrants  and in my experience many can be extremely passionate 

  look at the rare  outbursts from those who felt cheated by the family court system  .

 hurt enough families and i think you are rolling the dice


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

also a revolt can be widespread non-compliance 

 in my younger days unionists would flex their muscles like that  , but it would still work for any sizable body of citizens if they choose to do it


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

Insurers worry about COVID-19 discrimination claims as workers return to desks

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...ion-claims-as-workers-return-to-desks-2582493


----------



## Value Collector (6 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Yep, been saying that all along. Vaccines will not give us the freedom we are led to believe. It makes me sick to listen to everyone on TV say the same thing - Vaccination is our way out of lockdown, if everyone gets vaccinated we will be safe, etc.". Safer perhaps because it does seem to work to an extent, but the answer to safely travelling and gathering NO! I am not bashing vaccines although I would like to do that. Some people have very little choice so they should risk it. Most people will not be affected much and do not need it, and the vaccinated keep getting infected again so our leaders need a different tack. This one will never work. I believe that the possible economic implications will be most negatively felt when they do try to open up and it backfires. It looks like that has already begun. After a few more tries people will become very disillusioned. There does not seem to be a plan B other than more jabs. Bad way to go. Who here never has a plan B?



If everyone was fully vaccinated, we can open up and let the virus spread, and instead of intensive care units and funeral parlours being over run we will just have people getting the sniffles.

Then, once covid has been reduced to the sniffles, each exposure adds to our immunity levels, and some natural balance should be reached and we can all go about or lives again.


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

Jobs data better than expected, futures and bonds moved significantly on the news, inflation carryon back in vogue: 




Looks like the tech to energy & banks swing point was indeed yesterday. Pretty satisfied with my call if I do say so myself. 

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fair bit of profit taking friday on account of this delta variant over the weekend. Likely to see a big move on monday in one direction or another depending on what numbers we see over the weekend. 


For the options traders out there, that means a golden opportunity for a straddle play


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2021)

Value Collector said:


> If everyone was fully vaccinated, we can open up and let the virus spread, and instead of intensive care units and funeral parlours being over run we will just have people getting the sniffles.
> 
> Then, once covid has been reduced to the sniffles, each exposure adds to our immunity levels, and some natural balance should be reached and we can all go about or lives again.



One month I think that death was not a thing pre-COVID.

News flash:

People get sick

People die

It's the cycle of life


----------



## over9k (6 August 2021)

True, but we're only interested in how it effects the economics/markets. There's a political thread to argue about it if you want but all you're doing is screaming into the abyss. 

If you want to discuss what you think is going to happen/what governments are going to do (not what they SHOULD do) then I'm all ears though.


----------



## wayneL (6 August 2021)

over9k said:


> True, but we're only interested in how it effects the economics/markets. There's a political thread to argue about it if you want but all you're doing is screaming into the abyss.
> 
> If you want to discuss what you think is going to happen/what governments are going to do (not what they SHOULD do) then I'm all ears though.




Yes, that is the overarching point, I do agree... At least as regards to investing and protecting oneself.

Indeed, I do place my Dosh with that in mind, but my speech may not reflect my investments.

Money is cool, but liberty is better. (IMHO)


----------



## Value Collector (7 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> News flash:
> 
> People get sick
> 
> ...




Yep, but that’s why we invented all the other vaccines and wonders of modern healthcare to extend our personal participation in this cycle of life.

Not to mention seat belts, airbags, bike helmets and many other things.

If a vaccination can reduce deaths from 1 in 300 to maybe  1 in 100,000 why wouldn’t you recommend them?


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Yep, but that’s why we invented all the other vaccines and wonders of modern healthcare to extend our personal participation in this cycle of life.
> 
> Not to mention seat belts, airbags, bike helmets and many other things.
> 
> If a vaccination can reduce deaths from 1 in 300 to maybe  1 in 100,000 why wouldn’t you recommend them?



but will it ?? 

 where is the data 

 they even unblinded the first trail 2 years early after it was given emergency approval
 now the same doctor  that claims a bone marrow biopsy or a shoulder re-construction is too dangerous because of my heart condition is desperate that i give me  ( another ) experimental medical treatment  

 maybe he believes third time is a charm  ( with experimental treatments )


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 August 2021)

Anything that depends on the weather and which is run in a businesslike manner will be heavily reliant on statistics and in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes. Examples include agriculture, water supply, short term operations of electricity supply and so on.

A share trader trading a mechanical system will ultimately be relying on some set of statistical data, in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes, in order to determine that the system gives them an edge and doesn't blow up. The details used will vary according to the situation but stand back and that's what it comes down to.

When it comes to vaccination the same applies. It's possible that a vaccine might kill you yes but based on available knowledge the probability massively favours vaccination being less likely to harm you than the disease it seeks to prevent.

That's much like saying that under certain scenarios it's possible that someone dies in a car crash because they were wearing a seat belt or because of the airbags deploying. That is possible indeed there are reported occurrences. Likewise at a guess it probably has happened that a building burnt down because the fire alarm caught fire. Theoretically it's possible and odds are it has happened somewhere at least once. Statistically however, you're far less likely to be killed by the belt, bag or alarm than that same belt, bag or alarm is to save your life. Statistical probability favours having it despite the new risk it creates.

In the absence of certainty I'll pick proper statistical data over random thoughts any day. There's no guarantee that turns out to be the right decision but most likely it will be and there's no "do nothing" option here, there's no option to simply say we'll do nothing right now and will collect some more data before we make a decision as someone might do with a proposed share trading system or the construction of a dam. In this case there's no option to do nothing, the virus is already up and running.

The economic impacts will continue rising until we've got a critical mass of people vaccinated. Only then, and I'm basing this on reports of the overseas experience, can we get back to business with any real certainty.


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Anything that depends on the weather and which is run in a businesslike manner will be heavily reliant on statistics and in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes. Examples include agriculture, water supply, short term operations of electricity supply and so on.
> 
> A share trader trading a mechanical system will ultimately be relying on some set of statistical data, in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes, in order to determine that the system gives them an edge and doesn't blow up. The details used will vary according to the situation but stand back and that's what it comes down to.
> 
> ...



Critical mass vaccinated or exposed.... So why not let healthy people get exposed? Let's look at bloody Sweden for once..whole story done and over there...protect the weak, let it run for the rest
Stats whatever ABC wants you to believe are known, and i would much prefer my 22y old son get covid, with Qld health keeping him be and not killing him in an hospital....than giving him an mRNA jab.
I want him to be alive and healthy in 15y


----------



## Value Collector (7 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> but will it ??
> 
> where is the data
> 
> ...



You can see in the real world right now, no one in Australia that is vaccinated has died of covid in this outbreak, in the USA they are seeing the same thing, they are saying the Vaccines can reduce the chance of death from covid by more than 99.99%


----------



## pozindustrial (7 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Anything that depends on the weather and which is run in a businesslike manner will be heavily reliant on statistics and in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes. Examples include agriculture, water supply, short term operations of electricity supply and so on.
> 
> A share trader trading a mechanical system will ultimately be relying on some set of statistical data, in particular the probability of various scenarios and the known extremes, in order to determine that the system gives them an edge and doesn't blow up. The details used will vary according to the situation but stand back and that's what it comes down to.
> 
> ...



Good analysis but I use a different one. 
try this: you are looking to buy a car so you look up all the maker specs and choose one. You go to them and have a chat. You are told of company statistics on the model that are very favourable, they have advertising on tv that point out features, a govt spokesman has stated in the news that this local manufacturer builds first class cars, and the salesperson assures you personally that this car is the best so you buy.
That is what projab mushrooms do and think. Not only that, but they voice concerns that if only everyone else bought one the economy would recover.
Then someone else gets a wider opinion, goes for data overseas on models sold there that are available here and find out that the specs from the local company have been massively exaggerated and that those overseas specs cannot be used by the local dealer because the govt banned them saying they were not relevant here. So the buyer becomes suspicious and begins more research that is hard to find and discovers that the local car has caught fire and incinerated the occupants five times last year but a person who questioned this in the media was told there was no link to a fault, they were all caused by other non-connected issues and that making this public would be unAustralian and could harm the economy. The projab mushrooms who believe the local marketing get their knickers in a knot and label EVERYONE with a different view an antivaxer and tell others they are ruining the country when all they are trying to do is get some unbiased information without the spin so they do not get incinerated. Then they gradually find there are others doing the same and people who are able to find out all the problem data and research on alternative approaches not provided locally. A battle ensues where tv and govt continue to deny concerns and push ahead with their favourite and projab mushrooms live on the bs and are happy in the dark while others are hesitant.


----------



## Value Collector (7 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Good analysis but I use a different one.
> try this: you are looking to buy a car so you look up all the maker specs and choose one. You go to them and have a chat. You are told of company statistics on the model that are very favourable, they have advertising on tv that point out features, a govt spokesman has stated in the news that this local manufacturer builds first class cars, and the salesperson assures you personally that this car is the best so you buy.
> That is what projab mushrooms do and think. Not only that, but they voice concerns that if only everyone else bought one the economy would recover.
> Then someone else gets a wider opinion, goes for data overseas on models sold there that are available here and find out that the specs from the local company have been massively exaggerated and that those overseas specs cannot be used by the local dealer because the govt banned them saying they were not relevant here. So the buyer becomes suspicious and begins more research that is hard to find and discovers that the local car has caught fire and incinerated the occupants five times last year but a person who questioned this in the media was told there was no link to a fault, they were all caused by other non-connected issues and that making this public would be unAustralian and could harm the economy. The projab mushrooms who believe the local marketing get their knickers in a knot and label EVERYONE with a different view an antivaxer and tell others they are ruining the country when all they are trying to do is get some unbiased information without the spin so they do not get incinerated. Then they gradually find there are others doing the same and people who are able to find out all the problem data and research on alternative approaches not provided locally. A battle ensues where tv and govt continue to deny concerns and push ahead with their favourite and projab mushrooms live on the bs and are happy in the dark while others are hesitant.



Try to keep it simple. Statistically if the vaccination was more dangerous than covid, due to the number of vaccines given we should have seen 20,000 people die of the vaccine, but we haven’t.

Also if the vaccine didn’t protect you from covid, we should be seeing about 20% of people in icu and deaths being vaccinated but we have 0%

so far we know that covid cases are quite low in Australia, however in comparison quite a high rate of these people end up in intensive care and about 1 in 300 die.

compare that to the vaccine, where millions of people have had it, but there have been a lot less deaths than covid, and none of the deaths from covid were fully vaccinated.


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

so is 'critical mass ' ,  'herd immunity ' ??

 because there is certainly a mass of people out that are critical ( of government policy )


----------



## rederob (7 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Good analysis but I use a different one.
> try this: you are looking to buy a car so you look up all the maker specs and choose one. You go to them and have a chat. You are told of company statistics on the model that are very favourable, they have advertising on tv that point out features, a govt spokesman has stated in the news that this local manufacturer builds first class cars, and the salesperson assures you personally that this car is the best so you buy.



Not many would agree that a car salesperson will be as objective as a medical scientist.


pozindustrial said:


> That is what projab mushrooms do and think.



It's actually the reverse.  Antivaxxers use false and discredited information to make their case.


pozindustrial said:


> Not only that, but they voice concerns that if only everyone else bought one the economy would recover.



That's not a *concern *as you put it.  It's a inevitable consequence of the proven effect of herd immunity.
If you are going to post an analogy, it needs to be honest.
You have distorted the narrative and drawn a false equivalent.
Not just that, your analogy is reliant on lies and distortions. For example, the *bans *you introduce do not exist. Then you use data which fails to provide context, as has been shown by @Value Collector.
Your defence is that it is you who is seeking the truth.  However, you cannot show how.
On the other hand there is a wealth of local and international evidence available which now has real world credibility from billions of examples.  
Then there is you and the antivaxxers who have what, exactly?


----------



## Value Collector (7 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> so is 'critical mass ' ,  'herd immunity ' ??
> 
> because there is certainly a mass of people out that are critical ( of government policy )



Not full herd immunity, but at least a herd buffer where there is enough vaccinated people that the virus spreads in a slow and bogged down manner rather super fast.

you just want enough people vaccinated that exponential growth doesn’t really happen, because each chain of spread hit road blocks and dead ends.


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

false information ??

 many use official government information ( as released on public websites )

 so are we to distrust the government , that expects us the follow their narrative blindly 

 i mean thousands of people ignore official government figures on employment  and inflation  , but that is OK , but quote inconvenient government data  ,  that is a dangerous conspiracy cult 

 interesting times  

 by the way  many  urging caution on this vaccine  are health professionals with some actually working in the vaccine industry  ( like say Robert Malone  or Geert Vanden Bossche , or Dr Byram Bridle )


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

that buffer is looking more and more like 150%  after all they are now talking 6 monthly boosters  ... at $200 a jab  that is a LOT of taxpayer money  ( before they start inducement payments )


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

This 500% Gain Is Causing Headaches for Nearly Every Industry​








						This 500% Gain Is Causing Headaches for Nearly Every Industry
					

In today’s Money Morning…backlogs for months…how to navigate a freight crisis…any company heavily reliant on exports may be at potential risk…and more…



					www.moneymorning.com.au
				




 DYOR

 i hold none of the stocks mentioned in the article ( and neither are they on my watchlist  )

 i much prefer trucking stocks ( and stocks supplying the trucking industry ) ( i am also trying to gracefully exit BXB )


----------



## rederob (7 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> false information ??



@pozindustrial has recently posted a link in 2 threads that makes many demonstrably false claims, and I have instanced it above.



divs4ever said:


> i mean thousands of people ignore official government figures on employment  and inflation  , but that is OK , but quote inconvenient government data  ,  that is a dangerous conspiracy cult



Just offer evidence that what *you *think or believe is credible.


divs4ever said:


> by the way  many  urging caution on this vaccine  are health professionals with some actually working in the vaccine industry  ( like say Robert Malone  or Geert Vanden Bossche , or Dr Byram Bridle )



Yes, people with agendas other than public safety.
You would do well to check the bona fides of professionals you quote.


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

not being a terribly affluent  person ( most of my life ) my social circle includes casual workers , part-time workers , trades-people  and some trying to buy their first home ( via multiple jobs )

 so when a couple   go from  five sources of income ( 4 casual 1 full-time ) to two sources of income  (  one different full-time  and one casual  from pre-covid  ) i am guessing they are hurting badly 

 another is a painter  who might be better quitting and punting on the race-tracks for a living ( or the football ) 

 several older associates  have just stopped working ( or their business )

 i have seen some amazing 'career shifts ' ( most of them not in an upward path )

  BTW i check agendas as well ( follow the money )

 but of course some BIG Pharma  groups just keep tripping over regulations


----------



## basilio (7 August 2021)

rederob said:


> Yes, people with agendas other than public safety.
> You would do well to check the bona fides of professionals you quote.




Yeah.. That was an eyeopener.  Clinical, detailed takedown of the lies/misrepresentations by Byram Bridle.








__





						Byram Bridle's Vaccine Misinformation
					

A rebuttal, debunking, and response to Byram Bridle's inflammatory and factually incorrect statements regarding COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines.



					byrambridle.com


----------



## wabullfrog (7 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Critical mass vaccinated or exposed.... So why not let healthy people get exposed? Let's look at bloody Sweden for once..whole story done and over there...protect the weak, let it run for the rest
> Stats whatever ABC wants you to believe are known, and i would much prefer my 22y old son get covid, with Qld health keeping him be and not killing him in an hospital....than giving him an mRNA jab.
> I want him to be alive and healthy in 15y




It's a myth that Sweden has had hardly any restrictions. If you read the articles posted by the Swedish Government they have had quite a lot of restrictions, closures, density limits in place & are at step 3 of the 5 step plan tp open up.









						About the Government’s COVID-19 measures in the areas of public health, medical care, social care and social insurance
					

Read more below about the decisions in the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs’ policy areas of public health, medical care, social care and soci...




					www.government.se
				












						Government plan for phasing out restrictions
					

The spread of COVID-19 and the number of hospital patients being treated for it are now decreasing dramatically. The largest vaccination campaign i...




					www.government.se


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children​








						Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children
					

SASKATCHEWAN: The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms represents Dr. Francis Christian, Clinical Professor of General Surgery at the University of Saskatchewan and a practising surgeon in Saskatoon. Dr. Christian was called into a meeting today, suspended from all teaching...




					vaccinedeaths.com
				




  keep this for posterity 

   it might become educational 

 ( Mengele loved experimenting of children  ... and  he is classed as one of the fathers of Genetics )


----------



## basilio (7 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> Surgeon fired by College of Medicine for voicing safety concerns about COVID shots for children​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What can one say after checking out the rest of the stories on this website ... 









						Vaccine Deaths Com | Vaccine Deaths – Vaccine Deaths Coverage
					

Vaccine Deaths Com | Vaccine Deaths – Vaccine Deaths Coverage




					vaccinedeaths.com


----------



## divs4ever (7 August 2021)

you can lead a horse to water


----------



## over9k (7 August 2021)

Well I just got my first pfizer jab.


----------



## pozindustrial (7 August 2021)

The messages keep coming through and the discreditations follow.
Well here is another one to discredit. How we can end the lockdown in 6wks and never re-enter and how to protect ourselves in the future.


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> It's a myth that Sweden has had hardly any restrictions. If you read the articles posted by the Swedish Government they have had quite a lot of restrictions, closures, density limits in place & are at step 3 of the 5 step plan tp open up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



sure but if you read about it, lockdowns when any are decided wo political input so just to manage ICU loads, and they now  have hardly any death from delta (0 to 1 a week out of 10 millions ...after letting the virus go and vaccinating frails...not exactly what has been done anywhere else, nor here; have a look at their GDP, their total number of death (1/4 of 2018 influenza).These are facts, unpleasant maybe but facts
Lockdown might be used to delay contamination, that is science, but they DO NOT reduce cases over time...so you do not lockdown until you are to reach hospital issues
Anyway, rationality is out, just belief resulting of fear and propaganda...
Some people still believe in Heaven and hell, some in virgins waiting for them after they detonate themselves, what hope does science or common sense have...


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> It's a myth that Sweden has had hardly any restrictions. If you read the articles posted by the Swedish Government they have had quite a lot of restrictions, closures, density limits in place & are at step 3 of the 5 step plan tp open up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



and BTW, my (french ) sister went on a week end holidays there 2 weeks ago...Facts...opening up....


----------



## rederob (7 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> The messages keep coming through and the discreditations follow.
> Well here is another one to discredit. How we can end the lockdown in 6wks and never re-enter and how to protect ourselves in the future.




If this Professor is so smart, where are his peer reviewed studies?
All his so called cures have been examined for covid and there is no magic bullet.
And if vitamin D is so good why did the USA experience a massive wave of infection last summer, while this summer the supposed benefits should be preventing the current wave which is underway.  
Ivermectin, which he also promotes, has no *proven *benefit at this stage.
His comments on nutrition *generally *are on the money and I support his view that government should be promoting a balanced and nutritious diet, and healthy lifestyle.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> So why not let healthy people get exposed?



First problem there is knowing who is healthy in that sense and who isn't?

Second problem is how to separate the healthy from the rest and enable society to function?

Third problem is that even healthy people seem to suffer ongoing effects if they get it.

With regard to the third, as a man I'd prefer to not become impotent as just one example: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence#1



> "We think the penis also could be affected in a similar way," Ramasamy said. "We don't think this is a temporary effect. We think this could be permanent."




That's quoting university researchers in the US not some political group.

Add that to lung damage, heart damage, headaches and all the rest plus the reality that for those countries that did go down that track, the death toll has been rather large.

So unless your son is unusually conservative in lifestyle and intends not having sex in the future, getting COVID seems to not be a particularly good idea.

From an economic perspective, well the logical long term conclusion of that is it reduces future population which, from an economic perspective, has definite downsides. Perhaps good for the environment but not for GDP.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> by the way many urging caution on this vaccine are health professionals with some actually working in the vaccine industry



I agree that in principle giving people a minimally tested vaccine is far from ideal and under normal circumstances ought not be done.

This is however not a normal circumstance since the problem needing to be fixed is already in circulation. If the lion has already escaped from the zoo, the bridge has already collapsed or the ship really is sinking well then there's simply no option to do nothing and carry on business as usual.

In an ideal world I don't want a virus or a vaccine but, since there's choice to not have one or the other, I've chosen the vaccine based on the track record of vaccinations in general being the less bad option.


----------



## Value Collector (7 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> The messages keep coming through and the discreditations follow.
> Well here is another one to discredit. How we can end the lockdown in 6wks and never re-enter and how to protect ourselves in the future.




Hang on, is he a Vet?


----------



## frugal.rock (7 August 2021)

And now for something completely different...

Anybody notice some massive intraday up swings on 10 year bonds over most international markets last night? Interestingly again, they mostly closed flat.... Spain was up 23%, France 17%, US 7%, Germany 10¿% etc

Gold off, silver truly tarnished, oil seeping down, but relax, because carbon emissions is relentless on its ever continued  world dominance aspirations... the inflation trade is kicking in.

Tired of the "to Vax, or not to Vax, this is the question" debate...


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> First problem there is knowing who is healthy in that sense and who isn't?
> 
> Second problem is how to separate the healthy from the rest and enable society to function?
> 
> ...



I am sorry Smurf, this is really typical of someone who is not aware of reality.
A bit like Australia trying to prepare for a snow storm ..try to talk to someone you know aged less than 60 and  based in a country affected by covid/having had covid.
On the other end give me some garantee on potential side effect of the jab: let's not call this vaccine, these are genetic experimentation...not vaccines as defined till 3y ago
Anyway, Propaganda works, so we will see how many death we will have in the youngest ones due to jabs vs Covid...


----------



## qldfrog (7 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I agree that in principle giving people a minimally tested vaccine is far from ideal and under normal circumstances ought not be done.
> 
> This is however not a normal circumstance since the problem needing to be fixed is already in circulation. If the lion has already escaped from the zoo, the bridge has already collapsed or the ship really is sinking well then there's simply no option to do nothing and carry on business as usual.
> 
> In an ideal world I don't want a virus or a vaccine but, since there's choice to not have one or the other, I've chosen the vaccine based on the track record of vaccinations in general being the less bad option.



For your information @Smurf1976 , there is only ONE track record of an mRNA vaccine, which so far has killed 600 children in the Philippines:
That article is pre covid..600 minimum deaths by now..feel free to get informed, then happy Pfizer to our youth.....


----------



## over9k (8 August 2021)

I don't touch anything european except the LSE so I don't know off the top of my head, but could there have been some kind of tapering announcement from the ECB or similiar?


----------



## frugal.rock (8 August 2021)

No idea, but the US 10 yr was also up around 7% when I looked.
Just intraday figures though, but ranging widely indicating volatility, again.


----------



## So_Cynical (8 August 2021)

I think there is a very real chance that the real second wave has now begun, Delta and what will follow it may end up doing more damage than everything that has come before it.


----------



## over9k (8 August 2021)

Hmm dunno about that. There's literally hundreds of millions more vaccines deployed now than before. And everyone have already bought all their stay-at-home stuff too.


----------



## noirua (8 August 2021)

Biden skips victory lap after strong July jobs report, warns of economic peril from rising Covid cases
					

President Joe Biden said the strong July jobs numbers were no cause for celebration, because rising Covid cases pose an urgent threat.




					www.cnbc.com
				



The highly contagious delta strain of Covid currently accounts for at least 80% of new infections nationwide.


----------



## noirua (8 August 2021)

Delta variant bears down on China just as its economy loses steam
					

The Delta variant poses new risks for the world's second-biggest economy as it spreads from the coast to China's inland cities and presents fresh challenges to authorities who have for months managed to avert any widespread outbreak of the coronavirus.




					www.reuters.com
				



"All staff at our hotel must take nucleic acid tests every two days," said a front desk attendant surnamed Li at the Zhangjiajie Huatian Hotel (000428.SZ).


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I am sorry Smurf, this is really typical of someone who is not aware of reality.
> A bit like Australia trying to prepare for a snow storm ..try to talk to someone you know aged less than 60 and based in a country affected by covid/having had covid.



For the record I actually have talked to someone who's (just) under 60 and living in the UK.

Admittedly a tiny sample of one person but their message was pretty blunt - suffice to say they're very firmly in favour of vaccination.

Have a look at what was going on in the UK before mass vaccination versus after it. It's night versus day. Vaccination has claimed a few lives yes but the death rate from COVID has gone from huge to trivial. End result is the UK economy is opening up without a spike in deaths meanwhile in Australia we're still locking down.

To my understanding life in the UK is considerably closer to normal right now than it is in Sydney or Melbourne in particular. Economically, it's hard to see that not being a negative for Australia, big cities especially.


----------



## qldfrog (8 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> For the record I actually have talked to someone who's (just) under 60 and living in the UK.
> 
> Admittedly a tiny sample of one person but their message was pretty blunt - suffice to say they're very firmly in favour of vaccination.
> 
> ...



It is not a pro or against jab, it is pro or against forcing people not at risk of covid: . roughly below 60ish  to be injected with a new tech relying on a genetic modification, sure not of your cells but a if i may say so a GM virus . As i am sure you know, a virus develops by tweeking your own body cells to reproduce the virus
So untested GM of a cell building factory..a lot of shortcuts here..but the idea...you understand the potential unexpected risks?
Lastly, nearly all the viruses i know usually hide within the body even after having been defeated.
My grandmother got TB in our older age yet was immunised etc
Latency then just coming out when bodies was weakened..see AIDS related illnesses, zonas, etc

And people protested and put laws in place against eating GM wheat or food?
If we had a dead or attenuated virus offer, i would have no scientific reasons to be against mandatory vaccine, this would be a vaccine not a trial with a product which could create millions of self immune responses or whatever unexpected results in 5 or 10y time if our body respond to a different virus or is weakened.
And NO ONE knowsthey can hope they can pray, but neither gov, manufacturers or scientist know.
Nor can i or you.
That's a bloody scientifically cautious reaon, for anyone who is not at risk of Covid, that's the 99% or even 90%, NOT to take the jab.
If you are at risk..of course, better a certitude of a number vs an unknown.
The position of the 🐸 which is actually shared by many real experts..not GPs but virus and epidemiology experts.i let you check that further if you have children or young relatives


----------



## qldfrog (8 August 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> I think there is a very real chance that the real second wave has now begun, Delta and what will follow it may end up doing more damage than everything that has come before it.



In Australia for sure as it is our first wave and we are sitting duck with nor facility increases.so jabbed or not...


----------



## qldfrog (8 August 2021)

I  think these lockdowns will affect our future by removing motivation to create new businesses..who would start a new cafe restaurant after this mess? Even a var service,an international startup..ok self interest here A whole generation burnt turning to PS jobs..or is it the aim?


----------



## qldfrog (8 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I  think these lockdowns will affect our future by removing motivation to create new businesses..who would start a new cafe restaurant after this mess? Even a var service,an international startup..ok self interest here A whole generation burnt turning to PS jobs..or is it the aim?



I am guilty as hell but this should go back to the economic side: lockdowns effects on business,our RBA buying our own debt at the rate of $200 a week per man,woman kid and infant to pay for it, the serious hit on our competitivity now and future due to travel bans...
We are on a destruction course of unparalleled scale


----------



## bsnews (8 August 2021)

The only reason you form these opinions and are allowed to make your own choice are due to the pure luck of the country you are living in.
If you were in Brasil or India any other 3rd world country I would love to see how much believe and resolve people would have then.


----------



## Value Collector (8 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> To my understanding life in the UK is considerably closer to normal right now than it is in Sydney or Melbourne in particular. Economically, it's hard to see that not being a negative for Australia, big cities especially.




Unfortunately we failed to prepare soon enough, hopefully we can make up the time we wasted.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> It is not a pro or against jab, it is pro or against forcing people not at risk of covid:



*Everyone *is at risk, but vaccinated people are less likely to be infected, suffer symptoms or die. 


qldfrog said:


> roughly below 60ish  to be injected with a new tech relying on a genetic modification,



A battery is not the same as an engine, just as mRNA is not DNA - they each exist separately within larger bodies and have different roles.  No modification of genes is possible.


qldfrog said:


> If we had a dead or attenuated virus offer, i would have no scientific reasons to be against mandatory vaccine, this would be a vaccine not a trial with a product which could create millions of self immune responses or whatever unexpected results in 5 or 10y time if our body respond to a different virus or is weakened.



*All *the vaccines work on the same principle, and that's to elicit an immune response.  The mRNA package is short lived in our body - breaks down within 3 days - so most adverse reactions will occur soon afterwards and not years later.
I agree that the tried and well proven technology for vaccines (inactivated or live attenuated) is less likely to have the side effects associated with mRNA vaccines, but haven't read any papers comparing these differences.  On balance there seems to be a trade off between the vaccine types as mRNA vaccines are more efficacious but possibly less safe.


qldfrog said:


> That's a bloody scientifically cautious reaon, for anyone who is not at risk of Covid,



Except that *everyone *is at risk.  Moreover, different variants of covid appear to affect different population subgroups, with Delta known to be affecting a greater share of young people.


qldfrog said:


> The position of the 🐸 which is actually shared by many real experts..not GPs but virus and epidemiology experts.i let you check that further if you have children or young relatives



Yes, @pozindustrial has posted on a number of so called experts and some of their claims are proven to have no merit.


----------



## over9k (8 August 2021)

Can we please, please, PLEASE keep the political bickering to a minimum? We have a thread for it, but it isn't this one.


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## qldfrog (8 August 2021)

bsnews said:


> The only reason you form these opinions and are allowed to make your own choice are due to the pure luck of the country you are living in.
> If you were in Brasil or India any other 3rd world country I would love to see how much believe and resolve people would have then.



India what a disaster indeed...
430000 deaths for a population of 1,394,864,708 so 0.003%
In australia would be equivalent to 8000 deaths...in 1.5years 
We are all shaking in our boots are we not?
Or 1/3 of tobacco caused yearly  deaths in Australia..in 1.5y
I have seen a smoker yesterday, let's lockdown...
We have around 3300 suicides a year in Oz..before covid so that covid death amount matching India would be less than twice pre covid  suicide deaths...
Every death is a drama but guess what, scoop, we die..all of us even you
Sorry if facts do not fit your nightmares


----------



## rederob (8 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> India what a disaster indeed...
> 430000 deaths for a population of 1,394,864,708 so 0.003%
> In australia would be equivalent to 8000 deaths...in 1.5years
> We are all shaking in our boots are we not?
> ...



Not good at facts and just as bad at maths:


----------



## againsthegrain (8 August 2021)

So what is happening with rates?  read today from a non credible source (news.com.au)  that negative interest rates are once again on the table because of recent lockdowns...  sounds stinky to me,  since the rest of the world and mainly usa doesn't blink to what happens in aus


----------



## divs4ever (8 August 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> So what is happening with rates?  read today from a non credible source (news.com.au)  that negative interest rates are once again on the table because of recent lockdowns...  sounds stinky to me,  since the rest of the world and mainly usa doesn't blink to what happens in aus



 i haven't seen anything recently  on negative rates BUT there does seem to be some sort of flow into US Treasuries ( best of luck if you bought TIPS ) at the same times as vague hints of a Fed taper , so  herding  the cattle into the slaughter-house , perhaps  ??

 negative rates would be unattractive to me , but i don't remember the last time i changed government policy ( because i probably haven't )


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Unfortunately we failed to prepare soon enough, hopefully we can make up the time we wasted.



From an economic aspect the way it looks to me is that places which haven't gotten on top of this now are, going forward, at a decided economic disadvantage compared to those that have.

Places such as WA, NT, SA, Tasmania or New Zealand have during the whole thing made themselves quietly known as "safe" locations in developed Western countries. No big city excitement perhaps but safe and desirable places to be if the crap hits the fan. That has appeal to those with money and no need to live in any particular place.

Places such as the UK aren't in that category, they were not safe places to be for much of the past 18 months, but they're very much getting it sorted now. Can't do anything to reverse the 130,000 deaths in the UK but things are now up and running on the back of mass vaccinations. Back to normal.

Then there's places like Sydney which I doubt would top anyone's list of places they'd like to be right now. 18 months into it and still not safe, still not opening up.

I can see some long term economic implications from that indeed I've already heard several reports to that effect. If you're able to choose where you live well the whole thing has given Australia's two largest cities quite a drubbing really.

So I'm seeing that as negative for Australia versus other English speaking Western countries and I'm seeing it as a negative for the big two cities within the Australian domestic context. That's how it looks to me at least and in that context I note the AUD has been trending down against the GBP since the start of the year.


----------



## noirua (8 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i haven't seen anything recently  on negative rates BUT there does seem to be some sort of flow into US Treasuries ( best of luck if you bought TIPS ) at the same times as vague hints of a Fed taper , so  herding  the cattle into the slaughter-house , perhaps  ??
> 
> negative rates would be unattractive to me , but i don't remember the last time i changed government policy ( because i probably haven't )







__





						Australia Interest Rate | 2021 Data | 2022 Forecast | 1990-2020 Historical | Calendar
					

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 0.1% for the 13th month in a row during its last meeting of 2021 as expected, saying inflation had picked up but it remains low in underlying terms. Policymakers noted that inflation pressures are less than they are in...




					tradingeconomics.com
				




The low-interest rate is keeping the A$ cheap and it isn't that far from A$2 to the GB£1 and importantly nice and low against the US$. Unfortunately, countries are falling into the same trap they have in the past. These low rates will force up inflation so for a time everything will go out of kilter. In the 1970s the UK saw 25% inflation with average interest rates at 7.5%.  My forecast during the next 4 years is for 12% inflation with interest rates at 6% in Australia and following that 10% inflation and 15% interest rates as matters go out of control. Stockmarkets will swing wildly eventually collapsing the world's economies.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 August 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> So what is happening with rates?  read today from a non credible source (news.com.au)  that negative interest rates are once again on the table because of recent lockdowns...  sounds stinky to me,  since the rest of the world and mainly usa doesn't blink to what happens in aus



Perhaps just an Australian thing?

If so then that would go some way to explaining the recent price trend in the AUD down from 79 to 74 US cents over the past 3 months. Not drastic in itself but it's the direction I'm paying attention to and the fact that it's falling despite the high commodity prices etc.


----------



## divs4ever (8 August 2021)

well when studying the GFC ( in hindsight , because i was busy with other stuff  at that time )  i noticed  all assets were turned to cash ( so it seemed ) particularly into US dollars , so i guess they  were folks desperately  trying to deleverage  leveraged positions ( the margin calls  , mortgages . credit cards etc.  )


 of course some savvy ones would be freeing up cash to buy distressed assets , but they would have been a minority 

 since  hold several resource  producers ( and most sell in $US )  a weak $A   is a nice bonus ( if it flows on to the divs.  , but there is no guarantee of that )

 now i don't know much about Australian fund managers ( the superannuation types ) but in the US  a 60/40 portfolio  is still rather popular ,

 currently i have a less than 1% in corporate bonds/hybrids  , i reckon that investment  sector , would demoralize a skunk ( since 2018 )

 so negative yields to me  would have me emptying the bank accounts at the first opportunity  even if i had to buy estate jewellery at Cashie's with it  , or sugar at Coles 

  but look at the various Fed mouthpieces and they keep throwing indefinite hints at a taper , while the ECB   seems to explore any type of new lunacy ( including selective application of negative bond rates , in a 'modestly  inflationary' climate  )

 negative rates here ( in Australia ) well some idiot does his best to provoke our biggest trading partner , everything is possible when a politician gets desperate


----------



## Value Collector (8 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> From an economic aspect the way it looks to me is that places which haven't gotten on top of this now are, going forward, at a decided economic disadvantage compared to those that have.
> 
> Places such as WA, NT, SA, Tasmania or New Zealand have during the whole thing made themselves quietly known as "safe" locations in developed Western countries. No big city excitement perhaps but safe and desirable places to be if the crap hits the fan. That has appeal to those with money and no need to live in any particular place.
> 
> ...



I agree, I don’t think it is a long term problem though.

I found something the NSW premier said today very interesting, she mentioned that once the vaccination rate hits 70%, what becomes then the rate of hospitalisations becomes the important number to track rather than the number of cases.

This is because once the majority are vaccinated, total number of cases is not important because because people will be infected but not having the disease escalate, allowing the virus to work its way around is ok, provided the rate of hospitalisations is manageable.

I think all cities will eventually have to hit that point, where they accept the viruses presence, just like they do in USA and UK, and when that happens NSW will probably have the upper hand because they will probably end up in front because of the higher vaccination rate from both the vaccine and the natural spread of the virus.


----------



## over9k (8 August 2021)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...per-plan-even-as-economy-expected-to-contract 
_
"A surprisingly bullish Reserve Bank of Australia said it will stick with its planned tapering of bond purchases, wagering that the economy will recover rapidly from a contraction this quarter driven by Sydney’s protracted virus lockdown.

The currency rose after Governor Philip Lowe wrong-footed economists by staying on track to reduce the pace of weekly buying to A$4 billion ($3 billion) in September from A$5 billion now. The RBA also maintained the cash rate at 0.1% as had been widely expected"._ 


They haven't even reversed their tapering decision so negative rates seem a bit off. 



On the question of the 60/40 portfolio: 






As for australia medium-longer term (I'm talking 5-10 years out) you need only look at this: 




That big bulge of gen Y'ers right on the 30 mark is the single largest bit of chinese demand it is possible to see for at least another 30 years, and look at it, it's one minute to midnight before the demographic cliff. Even worse for china, it happens right when all their baby boomers knocking on the door of 60 all hit mass retirement and start becoming a drain on china's internal finances rather than paying into them. Both of these facts alone would be a disaster, but both at once becomes a catastrophe. 

When that goes, Chinese demand will go with it, and thus so will Australia's only industry left: mining. 


And it will happen at the exact moment that *Australia's* debt chicken comes home to roost. 



This country is NEVER going back to its pre-virus state. Or at least, not within our lifetimes anyway.


----------



## divs4ever (9 August 2021)

a regime change in Brazil might impact Australia's fortunes as well 

 so far BRICS seems to be in disarray , but that might change 

 and if BRICS were to embrace a gold ( or silver ) standard , kaboom goes the Petro-dollar  ( and that assumes Iran doesn't  join BRICS )


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> From an economic aspect the way it looks to me is that places which haven't gotten on top of this now are, going forward, at a decided economic disadvantage compared to those that have.
> 
> Places such as WA, NT, SA, Tasmania or New Zealand have during the whole thing made themselves quietly known as "safe" locations in developed Western countries. No big city excitement perhaps but safe and desirable places to be if the crap hits the fan. That has appeal to those with money and no need to live in any particular place.
> 
> ...



As you point, negative for Sydney Melbourne domestically but overall, negative for Australia.we are a kind of joke" they lock down with 1 or 0 death..." That's the comments from Europe i get
So brand Australia is taking a bashing, add to this the amount of people unable to fly.Frog included ..enable to see family or fiance for the last year and a half, missing funerals births weddings and believe me there is no love lost to Australia.
Million(s) of Brits, Indians in this situation here today
It will take time to heal.i wanted to move out and keep a base here..not so sure now that i want to keep a base here.would be safer to just come as a tourist to see my family and friends in Oz in the Future


----------



## Value Collector (9 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> a regime change in Brazil might impact Australia's fortunes as well
> 
> so far BRICS seems to be in disarray , but that might change
> 
> and if BRICS were to embrace a gold ( or silver ) standard , kaboom goes the Petro-dollar  ( and that assumes Iran doesn't  join BRICS )



Any country that had a gold or silver standard would be at a big disadvantage, there are very good reasons modern economies moved away from the Gold standard.


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Any country that had a gold or silver standard would be at a big disadvantage, there are very good reasons modern economies moved away from the Gold standard.



I agree with you, IMO there is a greater likely hood  of a universal digital currency, than the gold standard returning.


----------



## Value Collector (9 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with you, IMO there is a greater likely hood  of a universal digital currency, than the gold standard returning.



I agree that currencies will go digital, but they will still need to be managed by central banks, and have the ability to expand and contract in size as needed.

If they can’t then they would be open to abuse by speculators as the gold standard would be, and the ability for monetary policy to be used to stimulate or out the breaks on would be diminished.

A lot of people seem to like the idea of a currency that would appreciate in value, or that can be an investment in itself because of limited supply, this idea is Super bad for an economy.

Real currencies need to be relatively stable in value, which means they shouldn’t rise of fall a lot like gold and bit coin, and their supply demand need to be managed.

Also, there should be disincentives for holding currencies, this is what inflation is, you shouldn’t expect to make money holding currency, real value is only generated if you lend the cash or spend it on investments, hence stimulating economic activity, and taking economic risk.


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with you, IMO there is a greater likely hood  of a universal digital currency, than the gold standard returning.



But that's a western view, if Xi or Putin can add a veneer of Gold backed layer on top of their own crypto currency, i know where i would like to put my cash, more than a btc ot eth than can be switched off by a decree.


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2021)

The problem at the moment is, Countries are just printing money, which has no direct link to an underpinning increase in productivity or gdp, it doesnt foster a lot of confidence in the system that values a Countries currency IMO.


----------



## pozindustrial (9 August 2021)

The economic crap has finally hit the fan. I have three excellent customers who pay before the end of the month and not one has paid their July accounts! This is the first time for more than eighteen months that it has happened. I believe that signals then end of assistance money that flowed last year. My business (tool manufacturing) is also at the lowest cash point now for eighteen months so we will see some tight times from now.
I know there are other businesses that have done poorly before now, but I am speaking of businesses largely unaffected by lockdowns whose business has suffered a drop, but they are still doing OK, until now.


----------



## divs4ever (9 August 2021)

thanks for the heads up , i was expecting similar to happen , but just unsure when 

 good luck  and best wishes 

 PS can you make us a new PM and a set of  six premiers ,  the currents ones look worn out and obsolete


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2021)

There are many times where I have question my life choices with my profession. It's hard Yakka, smelly, and minor injuries are frequent.

My most recent one is a dislocated jaw and after several weeks my bite is still not fully aligned... I've lost count of the number of concussions I've had and the scars on my hands look like a road map of Central London.

The money is pretty good for a lone tradesman, but not spectacular... Well above average wages, butt less than what I think my skills should demand. (We can thank for an unregulated market from my trade for that). But I love it so, there's that.

Fortunately I get paid on the spot so unless people can pay I don't turn up. And.,. Horse people will generally cough up for my services and live on baked beans if necessary.

But I am one of the lucky ones... partially by design, one of the best pieces of advice I received many years ago was that the horse industry does not suffer recessions.

But... I am noticing that people are finding it more difficult to be able to pay my fees. It surfaces in my scheduling in thatpeople may have to postpone appointments not have to have enough money to pay me.

At least I can sit at home and cause trouble on the internet ifI can't be paid rather than doing the work and wondering *If* I will get paid.

As such, I think my industry may be a useful canary in the coal mine.


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2021)

I dont know if it a sign of the times or just the way life is, but I had a burst water pipe in the wall, it is strata situation the strata insurance dont pay for the plumber to fix it and neither does the contents insurer.
Normally I use the same insurer for both, but this strata insurer doesnt do contents.
So Im in for another argument or two,meenwhile the missus os asking why it is taking so long to fix. OMG


----------



## over9k (9 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> There are many times where I have question my life choices with my profession. It's hard Yakka, smelly, and minor injuries are frequent.
> 
> My most recent one is a dislocated jaw and after several weeks my bite is still not fully aligned... I've lost count of the number of concussions I've had and the scars on my hands look like a road map of Central London.
> 
> ...



Can you explain what you mean by the horse industry not suffering recessions? I've never thought of horses alone as being an industry.


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2021)

over9k said:


> Can you explain what you mean by the horse industry not suffering recessions? I've never thought of horses alone as being an industry.



Horses are actually quite a large industry. IIRC, the thoroughbred racing industry is the second or third largest employer in Victoria. I haven't dealt into this statistics and other state but I would imagine that it is not very much different in all the other states.

And that's just racing.

There is also the leisure horse industry... Not as big as the racing industry but still significant.

While I believe that the horse *breeding industry suffers the vagaries the general economic condition, horse lovers will put their animals first, well before their own well-being.

Hence, things would have to well and truly turn to ****, before horse owners would forgo  their spending.

I can only confirm that this is true, having been through several economic cycles now.


----------



## bsnews (9 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> The economic crap has finally hit the fan. I have three excellent customers who pay before the end of the month and not one has paid their July accounts! This is the first time for more than eighteen months that it has happened. I believe that signals then end of assistance money that flowed last year. My business (tool manufacturing) is also at the lowest cash point now for eighteen months so we will see some tight times from now.
> I know there are other businesses that have done poorly before now, but I am speaking of businesses largely unaffected by lockdowns whose business has suffered a drop, but they are still doing OK, until now.



Yes I am in the same boat with cash flow it is looking like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I have not dismissed any of my staff as yet (retail essential service) but from what I read they would be better off financially if I cut them, work that out.
2 Large debts incoming maybe I do get to sell them NAB shares after all.   
Assistance money is there again just in a different form. I would also say in a more thought out way that should not be able to taken advantage of as easy as last time. I would need to ask Gerry if that is true though


----------



## divs4ever (9 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> Horses are actually quite a large industry. IIRC, the thoroughbred racing industry is the second or third largest employer in Victoria. I haven't dealt into this statistics and other state but I would imagine that it is not very much different in all the other states.
> 
> And that's just racing.
> 
> ...



poor people do not own an interest in a horse for long ( even in better times )


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> The economic crap has finally hit the fan. I have three excellent customers who pay before the end of the month and not one has paid their July accounts! This is the first time for more than eighteen months that it has happened. I believe that signals then end of assistance money that flowed last year. My business (tool manufacturing) is also at the lowest cash point now for eighteen months so we will see some tight times from now.
> I know there are other businesses that have done poorly before now, but I am speaking of businesses largely unaffected by lockdowns whose business has suffered a drop, but they are still doing OK, until now.



Hope you and business will manage to stay afloat


----------



## over9k (9 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> Horses are actually quite a large industry. IIRC, the thoroughbred racing industry is the second or third largest employer in Victoria. I haven't dealt into this statistics and other state but I would imagine that it is not very much different in all the other states.
> 
> And that's just racing.
> 
> ...



Racing I understand completely. But aside from that, there can't be that many pet horses out there surely?


----------



## divs4ever (9 August 2021)

if you consider horses used in sport  ( dressage , polo ,   show-jumping   and camp-drafting )  as pets you might be surprised


----------



## over9k (9 August 2021)

Ok, so let's add those to the racing mix. Again, there can't be that many? Dogs for example would have to outnumber them what, 500:1? 

It's not like they're bred for meat and/or milk (or both) like cows are. I could see how any animal we use for food would be a big industry (I know the poultry industry is huge for example) but horses seems hard to see?


----------



## Value Collector (9 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> Horses are actually quite a large industry.




Yep, I believe about 9000 horses are sent to slaughter houses a year in Australia, and that’s not including the ones killed after being Injured at the track or rodeo ring.


----------



## wayneL (9 August 2021)

Pet horses... LOL

Well there are plenty of those, galloping housewives who just like to go out on trail rides or have paddock ornaments.

But as Divs points out, there are all sorts of sport and working horse fraternities.... Dressage, showjumping, showing, eventing, reining, Western pleasure, cutting, stock horses, carriage, polo, polocrosse, pony club, games, rodeo, barrel racing and so on and so forth.

And then you have to breeding and young stock for all of the above.... That's not even including the racing industry.

There are waxes and wanes within individual stables depending on there financial circumstances but, in toto, the horse population is fairly inelastic and all require farriers, veterinarians tooth fairies, chiro/physics, coaches, saddlers and whatnot.

In the last big recession, the recession we had to have, the sport horse industry did not miss a beat.

During the initial covid lockdown, apart from the first couple of weeks, business actually picked up, cuz everybody was at home, on their properties, with their horses.


----------



## frugal.rock (9 August 2021)

The thread has turned shoddy🐎.😅
Beats political crud.

Apart from you Wayne, does anyone remember that old world stable smell of horse, leather, manure and ecalyptus all mixed in?
I think I even miss horse flies... slap


----------



## over9k (9 August 2021)

AU is at about 18% last I checked.


----------



## Value Collector (9 August 2021)

over9k said:


> View attachment 128788
> 
> 
> AU is at about 18% last I checked.



AU is at 35% if you include those who have had one dose, that gives a better picture of where we are at because those single doses will be converted to fully vaccinated over the coming week.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2021)

Not unexpected at all. The vaccine makers are running hard for a reason. 

At least it doesn't have to be a new vaccine.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2021)

Here's your vaccine makers for the day: 




and check it out over the last month: 




A quick double in four weeks. _Very _handy hedge


----------



## Beaches (10 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> There are many times where I have question my life choices with my profession. It's hard Yakka, smelly, and minor injuries are frequent.
> 
> My most recent one is a dislocated jaw and after several weeks my bite is still not fully aligned... I've lost count of the number of concussions I've had and the scars on my hands look like a road map of Central London.
> 
> ...












						A digital race horse just changed hands for $125,000 as crypto-mania and the boom in NFTs show no signs of slowing down
					

Crypto horse racing platform Zed Run is the newest trend based on NFT blockchain technology. Digital horses can be bred, raced and traded in the game.




					markets.businessinsider.com
				




@wayneL  you just have to work out how to be a virtual farrier


----------



## wabullfrog (10 August 2021)

Had an interesting chat with an engineer who works for a miner with mines in more than a few countries.

They are looking at the way they work & one of the scenarios under consideration is more WFH on a permament basis but instead of just working on the mine you currently physically work at, you will now also do work relating to other mines within the companies operations.


----------



## divs4ever (10 August 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> Had an interesting chat with an engineer who works for a miner with mines in more than a few countries.
> 
> They are looking at the way they work & one of the scenarios under consideration is more WFH on a permament basis but instead of just working on the mine you currently physically work at, you will now also do work relating to other mines within the companies operations.



 Hmmm , adds extra logic to the recent EVN  acquisitions 

 ( i hold EVN , and hope they slide below the SPP price so i can buy cheaper )

 DYOR


----------



## divs4ever (10 August 2021)

Beaches said:


> A digital race horse just changed hands for $125,000 as crypto-mania and the boom in NFTs show no signs of slowing down
> 
> 
> Crypto horse racing platform Zed Run is the newest trend based on NFT blockchain technology. Digital horses can be bred, raced and traded in the game.
> ...



 i haven't seen any evidence of transmission between horses and human  , so  maybe a long rope when delivering the horse should work


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2021)

Beaches said:


> A digital race horse just changed hands for $125,000 as crypto-mania and the boom in NFTs show no signs of slowing down
> 
> 
> Crypto horse racing platform Zed Run is the newest trend based on NFT blockchain technology. Digital horses can be bred, raced and traded in the game.
> ...



I'd be in that... No horse ****, no stinky thrush, no lunatic owners, no lunatic horses...

... I'd miss the blacksmithing part of it though... Tools, fire, red hot steel, shiny hammers.... The ultimate blokey sh¹t.


----------



## over9k (10 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> ... I'd miss the blacksmithing part of it though... Tools, fire, red hot steel, shiny hammers....



Save that for the mrs when you get home  


Wait, what?


----------



## qldfrog (10 August 2021)

wabullfrog said:


> Had an interesting chat with an engineer who works for a miner with mines in more than a few countries.
> 
> They are looking at the way they work & one of the scenarios under consideration is more WFH on a permament basis but instead of just working on the mine you currently physically work at, you will now also do work relating to other mines within the companies operations.



Already implemented by the big miners.was starting 6/7 y ago in big miners ROC (remote operation centers) in Brisbane
Mine planners moved to brisbane and then assigned to do planning/scheduling on multiple mines.
The obvious step 2 is to move this ROC in Bangalore, then outsource and you can later have a Bengalis mine planner working for $10 a day doing multiple mines and even multiple companies: Rio,Bhp,ozl etc
Hello, i am Steve and i am here to help you..how is the weather in Broken hill mate?.....


----------



## over9k (10 August 2021)

Close eye on the banks tonight, this might be the beginning of the market manipulation.


----------



## wayneL (10 August 2021)

over9k said:


> View attachment 128834
> 
> 
> Close eye on the banks tonight, this might be the beginning of the market manipulation.



Beginning?

I feel like this should be a post from several years ago


----------



## over9k (11 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> Beginning?
> 
> I feel like this should be a post from several years ago



Ok, the beginning of this particular round of it


----------



## pozindustrial (11 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Hope you and business will manage to stay afloat



No problem, low overheads, been through it a few times before, although this is not a sudden drop, just the bottom of a slow trickle downwards. I too think my business is like the canary in the coal mine. My business tends to bounce along with the general consumer economy. Three decades ago I was a contractor and that business followed different parameters and was often doing well when the consumer economy was down.


----------



## over9k (11 August 2021)

Another 350 odd cases in NSW, VIC extended another week, regional NSW now getting hit, what a fuckup.


----------



## over9k (11 August 2021)

Inflation data in:

Prices up exactly on estimates, 0.5% month-month, 5.6% year-year, core up 4.3% year-year.

But the big one: Real weekly wages are down 0.7% and real hourly wages are down 1.2%. So people are both working less and getting paid less (proportionately) than they were.

So the little guy's debt burden is actually _increasing _as this inflation is not trickling down to wages as well, which means more profits for companies and less purchasing power in the pockets of the little guy. 


So futures all flipped massively green on the news.


----------



## qldfrog (11 August 2021)

and for zoom workplace, here it comes:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pay-cut-google-employees-home-100348715.html
feel like an outsource Bangalore employee ? be paid like one...


----------



## over9k (12 August 2021)

Here we go, all the delta variant carryon is now in the rear vision mirror:




And the vaccine makers and tech are now plummeting:




So the previous rotation that had just begun as this delta variant hit is now back. All delta did was cause a hiccup/speed bump. Swing plays will now abound again.

Remember, this time, it's not going to be the temporary/transitory we saw last time when nobody was vaccinated etc. Things are very different now.


My holdings are now BNKU, DPST, GUSH, NRGU, TQQQ, SPXL, UDOW, YINN, 3LNI. I've torched TNA, SOXL, NAIL and FNGU. Considering diving back into MIDU, TNA and NAIL at some point. Will be watching SOXL & FNGU like a hawk.

Chip lead times are now out to almost FIVE MONTHS and showing no signs of abating:


----------



## over9k (14 August 2021)

Alright guys, bit of a nothing week. The energy & banks rotation got moving: 




But everyone still have the jitters over this delta variant: 




The week ended green, but as I said, everyone still have the jitters. It'll pass.  

But it's a bit of a waiting game/snoozefest until it does. 



FWIW, energy & financials are DEEP into the green in aftermarket trading.


----------



## sptrawler (20 August 2021)

One of the covid related financial issue, that will be starting to grate on people IMO, will be vouchers. There is never ending advertising to see Australia and holiday at home, well I for one am over it.
The trip to North Queensland cancelled due to covid restrictions, Jetstar get to keep your $1,200 and give yo a voucher that can't be used on Qantas and disappears if not used by 2023.
Virgin $640, keep you money, get a voucher, must be used by 2022.
Princess cruises $2,200, must be used by 2022.
I'm booking nothing, I'm fed up of giving cash, with no expiry date and getting a voucher and a thankyou.


----------



## frugal.rock (20 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I'm booking nothing, I'm fed up of giving cash, with no expiry date and getting a voucher and a thankyou.



Trawlers missus,
"Can you move the yukka back out the front, now please dear" 😅


----------



## divs4ever (20 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> One of the covid related financial issue, that will be starting to grate on people IMO, will be vouchers. There is never ending advertising to see Australia and holiday at home, well I for one am over it.
> The trip to North Queensland cancelled due to covid restrictions, Jetstar get to keep your $1,200 and give yo a voucher that can't be used on Qantas and disappears if not used by 2023.
> Virgin $640, keep you money, get a voucher, must be used by 2022.
> Princess cruises $2,200, must be used by 2022.
> I'm booking nothing, I'm fed up of giving cash, with no expiry date and getting a voucher and a thankyou.



 that's called the Tesla business model


----------



## sptrawler (20 August 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Trawlers missus,
> "Can you move the yukka back out the front, now please dear" 😅



If you hear on the news, W.A man strangles wife over tree, it should coincide with a reduction in my posts.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> There is never ending advertising to see Australia and holiday at home, well I for one am over it.



Purely anecdotal but among those I know, they're basically taking it as "holiday within your own state".

Because actually booking anything involving airlines in particular is just too risky both financially and in practical terms for many who'll have issues rescheduling leave from work plus things like school holidays and so on.


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> One of the covid related financial issue, that will be starting to grate on people IMO, will be vouchers. There is never ending advertising to see Australia and holiday at home, well I for one am over it.
> The trip to North Queensland cancelled due to covid restrictions, Jetstar get to keep your $1,200 and give yo a voucher that can't be used on Qantas and disappears if not used by 2023.
> Virgin $640, keep you money, get a voucher, must be used by 2022.
> Princess cruises $2,200, must be used by 2022.
> I'm booking nothing, I'm fed up of giving cash, with no expiry date and getting a voucher and a thankyou.



This sounds like the last escort I booked. 




Wait, what?


----------



## againsthegrain (20 August 2021)

over9k said:


> This sounds like the last escort I booked.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Wasn't cleared for take off?


----------



## qldfrog (20 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Purely anecdotal but among those I know, they're basically taking it as "holiday within your own state".
> 
> Because actually booking anything involving airlines in particular is just too risky both financially and in practical terms for many who'll have issues rescheduling leave from work plus things like school holidays and so on.



same here, and even if qld is big, a bit restricting especially if you want some colder weather


----------



## sptrawler (20 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Purely anecdotal but among those I know, they're basically taking it as "holiday within your own state".
> 
> Because actually booking anything involving airlines in particular is just too risky both financially and in practical terms for many who'll have issues rescheduling leave from work plus things like school holidays and so on.



Yes we are doing the same now.
The problem we have is the vouchers for cruises booked for 2020, from Perth to Sydney on the Sapphire Princess and fly back to Perth on Virgin are due to expire. At the time of booking it looked as though Australia was going to be in a bubble.

The recent Jetstar voucher was booked pre Delta strain outbreak, when travel to Queensland was fine.

The really annoying part is, we can still travel to Tassie from W.A, so we said fine just let us use the credit as part payment on Qantas, as they do direct flights Perth to Hobart.
Poxy Qantas and Jetstar, say no it has to be on Jetstar, who only fly to Tassie with a connection in Melbourne.
What cracks me up is how Qantas likes to take the high moral ground on peoples behaviour eg Folau, yet have no problem being absolute pricks, when it comes to honouring their obligation of decency.
My rant for the month


----------



## pozindustrial (20 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Yes we are doing the same now.
> The problem we have is the vouchers for cruises booked for 2020, from Perth to Sydney on the Sapphire Princess and fly back to Perth on Virgin are due to expire. At the time of booking it looked as though Australia was going to be in a bubble.
> 
> The recent Jetstar voucher was booked pre Delta strain outbreak, when travel to Queensland was fine.
> ...



Qantas have always been pricks, management, cabin staff. Six years ago (I think) a mate flew A380 to Canada which was good, then home on the same aircraft which was cramped and he is not an oversized gent. Qantas had altered seating on that plane to squeeze more in. The selling point of the aircraft to travellers was more room.


----------



## sptrawler (20 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Qantas have always been pricks, management, cabin staff. Six years ago (I think) a mate flew A380 to Canada which was good, then home on the same aircraft which was cramped and he is not an oversized gent. Qantas had altered seating on that plane to squeeze more in. The selling point of the aircraft to travellers was more room.



I can believe that, I just hope Australians have long memories, Qantas is great at talking the talk, but IMO very nasty when it comes to walking the walk.
Like I said, from my opinion, Qantas has a real nasty streak and it permeates from the top down, you try and do the right thing to support their plight by holidaying. All they do is say thanks and kick you in the goolies, I hope the Feds stop giving them handouts.
As smurf says holiday in your own State, until this is virus is well past IMO, trying to help Qantas and other States is just giving Qantas management money IMO.
If they want a go fund me page, they should start one.
If they were about honouring their obligation, they would try and do everything they could, to facilitate people who are stumping up money to help them.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 August 2021)

One fact that strikes me about all the foregoing experience with tourism is that "booking a holiday" upfront is dead in the water.

The uncertainty with the virus and lockdowns, further possibly more lethal variants, vaccine effectiveness (or lack) and preciousness of my fellow Australians as to which vaccine they will choose from the menu, and a possible severe recession, will force people to just wing it.

I have never been a fan of cruises or caravanning or any of the booked trips available from the likes of Flight Centre, any of what I would call "traditional" patterns of tourism.

So there will be a rearrangement of the deckchairs with people making ad hoc decisions to holiday and the travel companies will have to adapt. Airbnb, flights, hotel bookings and experiences will become separated and "packages" will disappear. 

I am not looking forward to it personally as tourists will get in my way. I avoid them like the plague. Cruises in particular are glorified Petri dishes for growing bugs my doctor tells me and these creatures will be confined to the land mass looking for buffets, pokies, toilet paper, tablets for the runs and STI clinics.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> One fact that strikes me about all the foregoing experience with tourism is that "booking a holiday" upfront is dead in the water.
> 
> The uncertainty with the virus and lockdowns, further possibly more lethal variants, vaccine effectiveness (or lack) and preciousness of my fellow Australians as to which vaccine they will choose from the menu, and a possible severe recession, will force people to just wing it.
> 
> So there will be a rearrangement of the deckchairs with people making ad hoc decisions to holiday and the travel companies will have to adapt. Airbnb, flights, hotel bookings and experiences will become separated and "packages" will disappear.



All good, _gg_, and isn't it grand we don't have Centralised Planning via _InTourist _to mandate choices.

The duopolies are having to adapt. Virgin came out with some overly complex set of booking/ pricing alternatives, today (for the back half of the 'plane). Agree with @sptrawler on Qantas; Quaintly Farcical. Questionably Fascistic. I basically turn off/ away when someone preaches (fake) virtue to me.

Though I have some nostalgia for a guy in short pants spraying the plane on arrival back home.


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Wasn't cleared for take off?



Virgin $640, keep you money, get a voucher, must be used by 2022


----------



## againsthegrain (20 August 2021)

over9k said:


> Virgin $640, keep you money, get a voucher, must be used by 2022




I was referring to most escorts prob don't last too long in the industry to claim a voucher, if they even give one😂


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> I was referring to most escorts prob don't last too long in the industry to claim a voucher, if they even give one😂



I don't need a couple of years - it's usually closer to a couple of minutes.


----------



## frugal.rock (20 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> What cracks me up is how Qantas likes to take the high moral ground on peoples behaviour eg Folau, yet have no problem being absolute pricks, when it comes to honouring their obligation of decency.
> My rant for the month



Tell them your gay and neutral gender and you feel victimised.
I'm sure they will roll out the red rug for you.


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Tell them your gay and neutral gender and you feel victimised.
> I'm sure they will roll out the red rug for you.



Alternatively, try trans-financial. 

I'm a rich person living in a poor person's life. Please, give me free flights to help stop this shocking injustice.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2021)

over9k said:


> This sounds like the last escort I booked.




Moral issues aside, that would be an industry pretty heavily impacted by the situation I assume?

Given the nature of it, and the terms of employment, I'm thinking there'd be some issues accessing government financial assistance too?


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Moral issues aside, that would be an industry pretty heavily impacted by the situation I assume?
> 
> Given the nature of it, and the terms of employment, I'm thinking there'd be some issues accessing government financial assistance too?



Nah they've all gone online. Onlyfans, pornhub etc etc are raking in record numbers as everyone are sitting at home with nothing to do except warcraft & fap. 

Covid's essentially turned the entire population into basement dwelling perpetually-online neckbeards. 



In other words, welcome to my normal life


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 August 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Though I have some nostalgia for a guy in short pants spraying the plane on arrival back home.



Great memories of that. Don't forget the long socks.

Nobody ever questioned what was in the spray. Probably DDT.

Simpler days. 

To quote from Apocalypse Now, "the sweet smell of napalm".

gg


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

Actually related to this thread: 





This delta variant's smashing everything but it's a bit different now - how hard you're hit basically depends on how well vaccinated your population is. 

The cruel irony here is that the (first world) country which did the worst job of containing the first variant and thus needed/deployed the vaccines the most is now the most protected from the second one. 



So whilst things are down across the board, the USA is far & away the best port in this particular storm & will remain so for considerable time yet.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 August 2021)

over9k said:


> Nah they've all gone online. Onlyfans, pornhub etc etc are raking in record numbers



I was thinking more of those providing physical services......

Be they legal or illegal depending on what state, I assume such establishments would in practice be shut where lockdowns are in force? They'd be a pretty likely business to be checked up on I'd assume. 

I'm not judging on morality there, just an economic observation.


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I was thinking more of those providing physical services......
> 
> Be they legal or illegal depending on what state, I assume such establishments would in practice be shut where lockdowns are in force? They'd be a pretty likely business to be checked up on I'd assume.
> 
> I'm not judging on morality there, just an economic observation.



So am I. Can't see people in person? Just start taking it on film instead. Or be a camwhore. Your previously in-person customers will still pay for the videos etc.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Simpler days.
> 
> To quote from Apocalypse Now, "the sweet smell of napalm".



And to complete the quote, ".. in the morning", because it was usually about 6am. 

Forgot about the long sox.


----------



## againsthegrain (20 August 2021)

fans only is banning sexual content actually. Those poor skilled workers









						OnlyFans to ban adult material after pressure from payment processors
					

Subscriber-only website synonymous with pornography will now focus on more mainstream content




					www.google.com


----------



## over9k (20 August 2021)

They'll rebrand to something else. There's absolutely staggering money in pr0n. 

Twitch has been grappling with this very problem for a LONG time and it's become particularly pronounced during covid. They tried making a thots only section but it hasn't really fixed the problem.


----------



## over9k (26 August 2021)

Inflation numbers in, GDP growth 6.6%, GDP inflation 6.1%, probably not really going to do much as delta variant hasn't gone away. 

It was one of those "if it's bad then things will plummet and if it's good then nothing will happen" things, so, nothing's really happening. 



In summary, it's still groundhog day.


----------



## divs4ever (26 August 2021)

am not sure when history will stop repeating ( the short-term narrative )


----------



## over9k (27 August 2021)

Hah. Yeah. All the talking heads are back on the news doing the same thing they were april-may-june etc last year: waffling. 


You know when someone doesn't want to say they don't know so they just start "talking"? A very long winded, very jargon filled, very intelligent way of saying... absolutely nothing.


----------



## Knobby22 (27 August 2021)

According to Ian Verrander, the only thing Wall Street is worried about is whether the money printing is slowed.


----------



## qldfrog (27 August 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> According to Ian Verrander, the only thing Wall Street is worried about is whether the money printing is slowed.



And I think this is right, the top 0.01% are making a killing, the money goes to the banks but not to the people, this is a"stimulus of the rich" but that is all right, Biden  was elected, well kind of... and deep state is back in charge, NOT... kind of....


----------



## Knobby22 (27 August 2021)

True, but it's not like it wasn't happening under Trump. In fact it goes back 10 years.

In fact the rumour is that Biden is going to end it.


----------



## qldfrog (27 August 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> True, but it's not like it wasn't happening under Trump. In fact it goes back 10 years.
> 
> In fact the rumour is that Biden is going to end it.



As if Biden would do seriously anything against the deep state aka politico military lobby and industry/money big players..now including the MS and Google of this world.
Trump was the wild card and was quickly removed.
Too much money at play: do you think Trump would have left all that weaponry in Afghanistan? No way, but here, the US army will not only have to buy back these, have a pretext to do strategic strikes to destroy these..a couple millions per missile and even better no accountancy possible.

US paid that much for xxxx armored vehicles/M16,etc , all conveniently unable to be counted checked...
 Even suitcases of dollars.
Absolutely amazing...and that is just for Afghanistan retreat/debacle.
Money will keep pouring(sp?) for a while ,a few peanuts for struggling home loans, student loans etc the red green agenda, and the bulk of it straight to wall street and big old boys clubs.
Looking forward to be proven wrong by one of the most corrupt president we have had so far in the US...
Trump was a crook..legal one .but Biden is corrupt..illegal one..there is no denying the Ukrainian corruption.

I should say was ,as he is a zombie now anyway, that is how i see the scene, covid just a convenient pretext


----------



## Knobby22 (27 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> As if Biden would do seriously anything against the deep state aka politico military lobby and industry/money big players..now including the MS and Google of this world.
> Trump was the wild card and was quickly removed.
> Too much money at play: do you think Trump would have left all that weaponry in Afghanistan? No way, but here, the US army will not only have to buy back these, have a pretext to do strategic strikes to destroy these..a couple millions per missile and even better no accountancy possible.
> 
> ...



Trump did a deal with the Taliban last year, withdrew the rug from under the US backed government.. I already posted on it a while back. Promised to leave by July. Gave them everything they wanted. 5000 fighters returned, we will promise to punish any "individual" who hurts the US but still allowed to attack government forces but US not allowed to attack them.

"The deal was a sweet one for the Taliban, critics say"
Trump’s second national security adviser, has recently called it “a surrender agreement with the Taliban.” Another member of Trump’s National Security Council said it was “a very weak agreement.”
I think your hero has feet of clay.

Not saying Biden or the military establishment are genius's either. I think they just stuffed it up from yet again poor military intelligence. Not deep state, just deep stupidity.

Read about Trumps agreement following:


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/08/20/trump-peace-deal-taliban/
		


Anyway getting off topic. Back to economics.


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

so who is funding ISIS , so far they have proved to be a very efficient and well-trained  force 

 this is NOT just a bunch of boy-scouts that grew up 


 THAT is the question 

how does that relate to economics .. it seems they can disrupt , anywhere at anytime , at short notice 

 and the current economics is all fantasy stories , not much to see there ( unless you have an electron microscope )


----------



## qldfrog (27 August 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> Trump did a deal with the Taliban last year, withdrew the rug from under the US backed government.. I already posted on it a while back. Promised to leave by July. Gave them everything they wanted. 5000 fighters returned, we will promise to punish any "individual" who hurts the US but still allowed to attack government forces but US not allowed to attack them.
> 
> "The deal was a sweet one for the Taliban, critics say"
> Trump’s second national security adviser, has recently called it “a surrender agreement with the Taliban.” Another member of Trump’s National Security Council said it was “a very weak agreement.”
> ...



i would just add: 75000 talibans, nearly 4.5millions refugees most of them young males, many times the number of taliban forces just for Europe ...
Afghanistan is what its people want.
 Even if this is hard to swallow for many..."my hero" was realistic and would have brought back its hardware
With the Talibans back, who were already killing vaccination teams for serious illnesses, Covid will go wild there...we will have the statistically relevant population sample without vaccination;
May not be easy to get figures sadly
And if the worst nightmare of mRNA development go wild, we have a future populated by talibans... 
So in a way, these middle age fanatics might be useful...


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

having lived in a unit next to a heroine addict ( luckily a nice one )   i do not see the Taliban as completely bad 

 yes i disagree with a lot of their policies , but i am no friend of the ALP either , and there are more of those fanatics in Australia 

 yes Afghanistan was a money-pit  ( or a cash-laundry according to Assange  ) and the US was never going to get those minerals to port ( in Pakistan ) cost effectively  Russia and China were always in the box-seat there

 so apart  some 'under-the-radar transactions '  what was the point of being there for 20 years , Russia has strengthened it's economy and the Chinese economy has matured  , the US basically kept the Russian/Chinese windfall safe


----------



## againsthegrain (27 August 2021)

Funny thing Taliban is strongly funded by heroin exports to the west


----------



## basilio (27 August 2021)

In fact the Taliban was also directly funded by the US government while the US and allies were in Afganistan 

Crazy story ; but makes total sense.









						How the US Funds the Taliban
					

With Pentagon cash, contractors bribe insurgents not to attack supply lines for US troops




					www.thenation.com


----------



## Knobby22 (27 August 2021)

And lets not forget the help they get from Pakistan.


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

used to work with a former 'contractor '  who spend some time in the 'South-East Asia ' area during the Vietnam War 

 if just 10% of those tales were true ...


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> And lets not forget the help they get from Pakistan.



 but that is CIA 'black-money , mostly


----------



## qldfrog (27 August 2021)

Knobby22 said:


> And lets not forget the help they get from Pakistan.



definitively, the Pakistani secret services were (in a very recent past aka this year) getting funding from the US/CIA *AND* helping the Talibans as they were blowing GIs (and Nato, aussies,NZ,Canadians, etc) there..unbelievable.


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

straight out of Catch 22 if you read the book ( and not the movie )


----------



## over9k (27 August 2021)

Why are we talking about this in this thread?


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

over9k said:


> Why are we talking about this in this thread?



possibly the next 'black swan'/security shutdown event 

 the natives are starting to get restless with lock-downs and curfews ( based on Covid )


----------



## againsthegrain (27 August 2021)

It is now the second year around, exactly the same where we were last year. Basically another lockdown another winter ending.  in 1 year time I think it is not possible to be exactly in the same position. It will be interesting to look back in 1 year time on this and see did we come close to predicting.

- Obviously the vaccines are rolling out nobody will want to do lockdowns all over again with 70-80% rates, or will they?
- New strain, covid 22/23? 

Now most importantly:
- Will we be printing still? 
- Will rates move up/down?
- Will inflation move or transitional inflation stop? 
- asx/commodities 
etc etc


----------



## over9k (27 August 2021)

I'm predicting a period of "general bull****" for quite some time yet.


----------



## divs4ever (27 August 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> It is now the second year around, exactly the same where we were last year. Basically another lockdown another winter ending.  in 1 year time I think it is not possible to be exactly in the same position. It will be interesting to look back in 1 year time on this and see did we come close to predicting.
> 
> - Obviously the vaccines are rolling out nobody will want to do lockdowns all over again with 70-80% rates, or will they?
> - New strain, covid 22/23?
> ...




 printing YES .. the connected people are raking in profits 

 rates .. sorry i can't pick that , logic says they should be higher NOW ( at least 3% ) but that would cause panic 

 inflation is just a misused word to grab a sound-byte on the news 

 commodities are liable to look good against a falling dollar ( US and Australian  )  that is falling purchasing power all embedded in a bank note , i call that inflation , others use different names 

 the ASX , is being pumped up by super contributions  , softened by big money leaving ( or taking companies private ) 
 that will depend  on actual wages and how much the super contributions get raised to ( to compensate for reduced returns )

 just my own thoughts


----------



## over9k (27 August 2021)

Here you go, here's the one headline that describes basically everything since the entire world's supply of stay-at-home items like laptops, playstations etc were bought up before the end of Q2 last year:




That one headline describes essentially the last 15 months straight. There's been whipsaw events like vaccines announced and borders closed and trump getting the virus and elections won/lost and so on and so forth, but realistically speaking, underpinning literally everything else that's happened, the entire world has been nothing other than the largest case in history of supply of goods not being able to keep up with demand for this entire pandemic.

There are so many ways in which it really is no more complex than this.


----------



## over9k (27 August 2021)

And as if on cue: 




See what I mean?


----------



## qldfrog (27 August 2021)

With covid,we have accelerated the digitalisation of the western economies..note..western.
Making them more attractive target and easier target for cyber attacks.
With China behind its internet wall, i would see that as the next step in the cold war.
Release/ spread covid, create panic, 
Vaccines mRNA in west, countered by artificial restriction on blood thinning medecines by main key producer:China
Increasing mortality in west..blamed on nth variant
Add the killing stab: cyber attack collapsing the internet in the west.
That's complot theory ?


----------



## divs4ever (28 August 2021)

what the West DIDN'T do was take a tip from Russia  and boost self-reliance and self-sufficiency 

 but as some mocking Taiwanese explained China simply trapped our greedy kleptocrats  , cheap labour , cheap power , shielded from inconvenient regulations  , and the rest is history 

 and since we have been overwhelmed by the desire for endless profits  , we have been too lazy to do proper research and development 

hopefully the younger generations will learn and improve


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> what the West DIDN'T do was take a tip from Russia  and boost self-reliance and self-sufficiency
> 
> but as some mocking Taiwanese explained China simply trapped our greedy kleptocrats  , cheap labour , cheap power , shielded from inconvenient regulations  , and the rest is history
> 
> ...



I dont think so, the younger generation are being fed by BNPL easy gratification ATM, the boomers era of skrimping and saving, until you can afford it, and the 25% deposits that was required for home loans, have been well and truly sent into the history books.
It wont be long before the younger generation, are tapping the boomers, to repair the want it now mentality. When they hit the, $hit I'm in trouble phase. 🤣
The really funny part is, it was only a couple of years ago, the millennials where cheering on the suggestion the Government should take the money off the boomers, that they are now going to need, to backfill the hole they have dug. 
Don't you just love it. 
Just my opinion.


----------



## divs4ever (28 August 2021)

i have seen some glimmers of hope , maybe you are looking in the wrong place  

 i see glimpses in those who have or are doing it tough ,  and have to struggle for those small gains

 but will there be enough glimmers  to make the difference 

 but when i grew up the favourite pastime was drinking and smoking and maybe listening to football on the radio  , not that much different  from playing hours of on-line gaming  , or munching snacks  while watching TV series .


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i have seen some glimmers of hope , maybe you are looking in the wrong place
> 
> i see glimpses in those who have or are doing it tough ,  and have to struggle for those small gains
> 
> ...



Obviously we grew up in different circumstances, I had three kids by the time I was 24 and we lived on the smell of an oily rag.
Now I see everyone, has what would have been considered a luxury, in the early 1970's.
But life moves on, then a tradesman's wages was bordering on the poverty line, now a tradesman earns a very good living, times move on.
The reality of "doing it tough" re adjusts, as does the reality of "normal"
A "normal" house for a tradie back in the 1960's was a two bedroom weatherboard home of about 13 squares, that normally had the back verandah converted into a sleep out, it normally housed mum and dad and four kids and was probably rented from the State housing commission.
Now you would be on the 7.30 report if you rented that to a family of mum and dad and two kids, for being a slum lord.
Times change, as do expectations, the only thing that doesn't change is people wanting more.  🤣
Yet funnily, we complain about global warming, while sitting in our air conditioned McMansions. 
I think tough times are coming, they havent arrived yet IMO, but it wont be long.


----------



## over9k (28 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously we grew up in different circumstances, I had three kids by the time I was 24 and we lived on the smell of an oily rag.
> Now I see everyone, has what would have been considered a luxury, in the early 1970's.
> But life moves on, then a tradesman's wages was bordering on the poverty line, now a tradesman earns a very good living, times move on.
> The reality of "doing it tough" re adjusts, as does the reality of "normal"
> ...



Yeah, everything's been flipped on its head like that. Same as uni grads from your generation made out like bandits whereas now the tradies are outearning them. 


Most of this stuff flipped in the GFC. That was the inversion point. A lot of stuff was in motion before it, but like coronavirus, that was the point where we saw 20 years' of change in 2.


----------



## over9k (28 August 2021)

Alright markets loved powell's comments today about being very close to tapering, so everything's screamed. Good sign, but USA is not out of the woods yet.

As for how far behind the rest of the world is, time will tell. Something tells me it's, shall we say, _significantly. _


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2021)

over9k said:


> Yeah, everything's been flipped on its head like that. Same as uni grads from your generation made out like bandits whereas now the tradies are outearning them.
> 
> 
> Most of this stuff flipped in the GFC. That was the inversion point. A lot of stuff was in motion before it, but like coronavirus, that was the point where we saw 20 years' of change in 2.



I think most of it flipped when the intellectuals hijacked the Labor Party, then decided that the education system needed overhauling.
Back then only 5% of students went to uni, the intellectuals said that was due to lack of opportunity for poor people to go to uni.
Now we have 50% of students going to uni and we are inventing degrees for them to do.
All that has happened is uni is a career path to a baristas job, because only 5% of the students are brilliant, as was always the case.
it was an example of social engineering imploding, dumb policy, that we are still trying to justify.
We need to go back to the Junior certificate, the leaving certificate and matriculation, it has been a exercise in futility.
The problem is those who need to make the changes, are worried their ineptitude will be highlighted IMO.
But as I said something has to give soon, or else everyone will have to be on $500k a year and the dole will have to be $100k a year.lol
My call is get your debt down, batten down the hatches and prepare for a storm.  🤣


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The reality of "doing it tough" re adjusts, as does the reality of "normal"



One of the most successful people I've ever met once lived in a single room flat with no running water inside and an outdoor toilet. They're worth rather a lot now.

For the record no I'm not referring to myself.

Hard times and circumstances will crush many but for others it's a blessing in disguise, it sets them on a path that ultimately leads to massive success.

Same at the societal level. From engineering to music, some of the greatest successes came out of wars, recessions, depressions, natural disasters and other bad circumstances.

For the bigger picture on this, I think the one certainty is that the economic paradigm which emerged during the 1970's has now come to an end. Like the ocean liner, it will take quite some time for the turning around to be apparent but the tipping point has been passed in my opinion. Much like the US going off any link to gold back in 1971 ultimately brought massive change throughout the world including in Australia, some of which was still unfolding within the past few years, so too this pandemic will bring change that takes decades to fully play out.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2021)

I knew department stores were in decline, and have been so since well before the pandemic, but I wouldn't have guessed it was quite this drastic:



> UK loses 83% of department stores since BHS collapsed​












						UK loses 83% of department stores since BHS collapsed
					

New research reveals the sharp decline of department stores since 2016 when BHS closed its doors.



					www.bbc.com
				




If 83% have gone since 2016, from 467 physical stores down to 79, then it would seem at least plausible that department stores will go totally extinct before too much longer at least in the UK. Indeed if there's only 79 left then, considering the population size, they must already be effectively irrelevant to most people.

Personally well here in Australia it would be close to a decade since I bought anything at all from a traditional department store unless you count discount shops like Kmart etc.


----------



## qldfrog (28 August 2021)

Hardship defines success, or at least entrepreneurship and will to succeed , but it also defines non socialist thinking.
So the labor/nanny state leaders do not want any recession , no school markings, do send free money, jobkeeper.. seeker , universal income, the whinging 7:30 reports, etc. And instead of temporary short pain, sink the whole nation, as if we were on an isolated island with no competition, and a gentle world outside the bubble.
China still laughting all the way to the cash teller.
Covid just another example in this lala land where reality is bypassed, death and struggle in denial.
With good propaganda, we will have nothing and be happy..not even freedom..and all equals ..in outcomes
"Arbeit macht frei" the old Adolf was saying, not that far from the Reset isnt it?


----------



## qldfrog (28 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I knew department stores were in decline, and have been so since well before the pandemic, but I wouldn't have guessed it was quite this drastic:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Switch from target myers to kmart big W.maybe death of department stores or just lower real wealth....


----------



## qldfrog (28 August 2021)

https://www.starnow.com.au/listing/1120700/actors-wanted-pro-vaccine-tvc-900pp/
That's a covid plus:
Actor playing sick people for tv ads..even toddler role....


----------



## divs4ever (28 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Hardship defines success, or at least entrepreneurship and will to succeed , but it also defines non socialist thinking.
> So the labor/nanny state leaders do not want any recession , no school markings, do send free money, jobkeeper.. seeker , universal income, the whinging 7:30 reports, etc. And instead of temporary short pain, sink the whole nation, as if we were on an isolated island with no competition, and a gentle world outside the bubble.
> China still laughting all the way to the cash teller.
> Covid just another example in this lala land where reality is bypassed, death and struggle in denial.
> ...



 some of the Taiwanese are laughing and mocking now  , sadly not for the same reason  ( because they are on the winning side , like China appears to be )

the more interesting part in all this was China is doing this despite BRICS seemingly a disorganized concept  

 i expected BRICS would have been an effective cooperation pact/trading bloc   and grab dominance that way 

 the Western economy collapsed  ( in September 2019 )  the virus is just a distraction 

 now they have forced us in a 'new normal ' do we need the WEF , IMF , WHO etc etc  they have clearly  not worked in the public interest  might be time to put them into the dust-bin of history


----------



## over9k (28 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I knew department stores were in decline, and have been so since well before the pandemic, but I wouldn't have guessed it was quite this drastic:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah, 20 years' of slow melt done in 2. 

Question now is, what to do with them?


----------



## over9k (28 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I think most of it flipped when the intellectuals hijacked the Labor Party, then decided that the education system needed overhauling.
> Back then only 5% of students went to uni, the intellectuals said that was due to lack of opportunity for poor people to go to uni.
> Now we have 50% of students going to uni and we are inventing degrees for them to do.
> All that has happened is uni is a career path to a baristas job, because only 5% of the students are brilliant, as was always the case.
> ...



Hmm having been to uni myself, I certainly agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I think there's more to it:

The uni's will accept, and pass, basically anyone now. Some of the stupidest people I have ever met I have met at university. Meanwhile, politicians get up and go "Blah blah record numbers going to uni most educated workforce ever" so on and so forth.

In short, uni just simply isn't the filtering system it once was, and until there's a narrative change surrounding it (meaning that all the fuckwits running them into the ground at the moment in a classic short term benefit for long term detriment get forced out) very little is going to change.

And there's just too much money in rinsing naive young kids for anything to change here. It's a racket, and a very profitable one, and until the general public at large force the politicians' hands (and good luck with that), nothing will happen.


With the political left being hopelessly infatuated with university being the solution to everything and the "right" (they're not conservatives in anything but name) caring about nothing but money, there's no political will to "reform" (burn to the ground) the universities from either side.


----------



## qldfrog (28 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> some of the Taiwanese are laughing and mocking now  , sadly not for the same reason  ( because they are on the winning side , like China appears to be )
> 
> the more interesting part in all this was China is doing this despite BRICS seemingly a disorganized concept
> 
> ...



well IMF and WEC are working quite well, thanks, for the 0.001%, who could not care less for the west as we know it ,as long as they can jet-set between London, NY, Paris and Venice


----------



## qldfrog (29 August 2021)

This post not for the one believing that the "vaccines" are the great saviours vs Covid.

Anyone not brain washed by TV spots and sheeple media know that these  experimental jabs lead to very significant side effects and spike protein generated  health issues: the immediate AZ clots and quick heart diseases for Pfizer, especially in young adults,true,  but worse in numbers the on going inflammatory effects

As i have said for a while,the immediate risk benefit balance still means that people with pre conditions or older than 60-65 are better off getting the jab.
Then you add the mandatory or de facto mandatory legal requirements..to travel work etc
So we end up with a huge number of people injected,willing or not,the frog family included.

Does anyone know of any way once injected, we can reduce these side effects against our blood vessels and the associated damages to organs without going straight to full blown permanent medication.?
Especially for the younger among us?
Would the standard basic vit D , Zinc be effective as well against the jab side effects.
This is a critical genuine question.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> This post not for the one believing that the "vaccines" are the great saviours vs Covid.
> 
> Anyone not brain washed by TV spots and sheeple media know that these  experimental jabs lead to very significant side effects and spike protein generated  health issues: the immediate AZ clots and quick heart diseases for Pfizer, especially in young adults,true,  but worse in numbers the on going inflammatory effects
> 
> ...



Your question is based on a dubious premise.

All my families eligible for vaccination have had x2 and are fit as fiddles. The vaccinations have a tiny incidence of side effects compared to catching Covid-19.

If you feel you are at risk of an undocumented risk maybe go to Byron when that miserable hamlet re-opens and buy some crystals.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2021)

Anyways, post Covid will be the same as post Oil Crisis of the 70's.

Boom times for all. 

gg


----------



## pozindustrial (29 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> This post not for the one believing that the "vaccines" are the great saviours vs Covid.
> 
> Anyone not brain washed by TV spots and sheeple media know that these  experimental jabs lead to very significant side effects and spike protein generated  health issues: the immediate AZ clots and quick heart diseases for Pfizer, especially in young adults,true,  but worse in numbers the on going inflammatory effects
> 
> ...



I follow health sites and unfortunately I have not come across anything that says you can reverse the spike protein factory that our body’s become once it is introduced via a vaccine.

Reports are that nobody including the vaccine manufacturers know the consequences of the spike protein long term. Some people make more of them with very bad consequences while others do not. Nobody knows if it will flare up or continue in the future because they have no idea what triggers it in some people.

Russian roulette imo.


----------



## qldfrog (29 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Your question is based on a dubious premise.
> 
> All my families eligible for vaccination have had x2 and are fit as fiddles. The vaccinations have a tiny incidence of side effects compared to catching Covid-19.
> 
> ...



Sure sure Gg based on the good doctor Young sciences.or the ABC?
I feel for your kids ..but good on you, easy way to get happy.


----------



## wayneL (29 August 2021)

GG's logic.

I drank a carton of tinnies last Saturday and I'm fine.

But what if those 10 tinnies that you drink last Saturday continue to manufacture alcohol in your system, every day, ad infinitum, like the so-called vaccinations appear to do with spike proteins?

That may be drawing a long bow, but then again, maybe it isn't. And antibody dependent enhancement has been a well discussed, real, and recorded phenomenon.

Are these things a danger to the "vaccinated" long-term?

We 
Don't
Know

As Mr Frog said above, not even the drug companies know that.

The psyop program to try and convince, cajole, or coerce people to get to these jabs; the subjugation, misinformation, or downrite non-disclosure of data and ingredients of these things is making me increasingly suspicious, rather than more likely to put these substances in my body.

I would much rather take my chances with a six pack of Guinness tinnies every now again.


----------



## rederob (29 August 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> I follow health sites and unfortunately I have not come across anything that says you can reverse the spike protein factory that our body’s become once it is introduced via a vaccine.



Given this does not happen, you need to read from more informative sites. 


pozindustrial said:


> Reports are that nobody including the vaccine manufacturers know the consequences of the spike protein long term.



They do. It causes an immune response.  That's why it's called an mRNA vaccine.


pozindustrial said:


> Some people make more of them with very bad consequences while others do not.



What are you talking about? Lies?


pozindustrial said:


> Nobody knows if it will flare up or continue in the future because they have no idea what triggers it in some people.



They know it's an immune response.  Do you understand what actually happens?


----------



## divs4ever (29 August 2021)

rederob said:


> Given this does not happen, you need to read from more informative sites.
> 
> They do. It causes an immune response.  That's why it's called an mRNA vaccine.
> 
> ...



 yes i do , among my other little quirks i have chronic asthma ( or is it acute sinusitis ??  )

 but of course i don't see any ads for the jab saying it reduces  immune hyper-sensitivity

 ACTUALLY technically it ISN'T a vaccine  , it is a medical device  which is currently been injected  ( if you really stretch the definitions it might even  qualify as a therapy  )

 now the Russian and Chinese offerings  do qualify as a vaccine because they actually use a modified virus    , although that is new tech as well because they use a different virus family  ( not a closely related one )  to deliver the payload  , so maybe it works better against the common cold or some flus  , because that is the bulk of the virus presented as 'hostile ' 

 and whom is 'informative ' the WHO  is  labyrinth  , of changing guidelines ,  you have seen massive changes in scientific thinking WITHOUT new evidence and solid data presented  .

 and i believe  wine or maybe mead are better against virus  , than beer ( although Guinness dark stout is the only beer i like drinking )

 although vodka and whisky  might work before the virus infects the lung tissues ( might be why pubs are closed  .. can't have them accidentally self-curing )

 not IF alcohols does not work , all that hand sanitizer isn't doing much either ( which would be a shame i hold PTL and that is coping quite nicely in this scenario )

Mexican researchers say they created facemask that neutralizes COVID-19​








						Mexican researchers say they created facemask that neutralizes COVID-19
					

The facemask is reusable and can be washed up to 10 times without losing its biocide properties.




					www.jpost.com
				




 now personally i would have sprayed tequila or mescal on the mask  , but at least the Mexicans realize that masks don't work well


----------



## divs4ever (29 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Anyways, post Covid will be the same as post Oil Crisis of the 70's.
> 
> Boom times for all.
> 
> gg



 they will milk this for all they are worth ( free money to pet agendas )

 BTW i don't remember the 80's as particularly 'boomy'  maybe it was a QLD thing  , the state has never been the same without Joh and the band of sycophantic criminals


----------



## pozindustrial (29 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> yes i do , among my other little quirks i have chronic asthma ( or is it acute sinusitis ??  )
> 
> but of course i don't see any ads for the jab saying it reduces  immune hyper-sensitivity
> 
> ...



One ingredient in their mask is silver. I have personally used colloidal silver for several years and my family has too. It is amazing in its healing speed with blistered burns, with any infected wound, for killing virusses internally such as herpes (cold sores), for bad toothache and many other ailments. It is the ingredient in many of the more expensive burns bandages and wound dressings used in hospitals. The reason is that it is nature's antibiotic, no germ or virus is resistant to it, not even antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Many people make it at home like I do with silver electrodes in distilled water. Not as good as laboratory produced product, but plenty effective enough. The talk about it turning people blue is mostly bs. It can only happen when people introduce other materials into the water like gelatin and use it for a long time.
I read in 2020 that a company that I thought was Australian made a room fumigating fog that was more effective than others available and that they had a big order from China. Their fog contained colloidal silver among other things. Pity I cannot find the article.


----------



## divs4ever (29 August 2021)

i would have liked to see the research/data on copper/silver against live viruses (  but then again a virus isn't 'alive' until it has infected a cell   , so go figure that anomaly )

 but research/data seems to be so yesterday  in the last couple of years  , a positive note to shareholders seems to be enough  , and micro-fine particles of inhaled silver and copper compounds properly aren't worse than motor vehicle exhaust gases 

 it will be interesting to see if the masks get long term use ( that is stay in production for 10 years and more ) 

 the really interesting thing to see was the Mexican company  did try to create a better mouse-trap ( well mask , this time ) ,


----------



## rederob (29 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> ACTUALLY technically it ISN'T a vaccine  , it is a medical device  which is currently been injected  ( if you really stretch the definitions it might even  qualify as a therapy  )



Vaccines serve to develop an immune response to disease prior to occurrence irrespective of platform used.   On the other hand a therapy is a treatment for a present ailment.


divs4ever said:


> and whom is 'informative ' the WHO  is  labyrinth  , of changing guidelines ,  you have seen massive changes in scientific thinking WITHOUT new evidence and solid data presented  .



The opposite is actually true, and public mask mandates were an outcome of continuing scientific evidence.


----------



## divs4ever (29 August 2021)

rederob said:


> Vaccines serve to develop an immune response to disease prior to occurrence irrespective of platform used.   On the other hand a therapy is a treatment for a present ailment.
> 
> The opposite is actually true, and public mask mandates were an outcome of continuing scientific evidence.




 ??? 

 never worked in a hazardous environment  , say  dealing with  fungus , mould spores and bacteria  being made airborne  , cleaning activity  ( or even sand-blasting ) have you  ??

 Work Place Health and Safety require  you to wear a DECENT mask   ( not something made in an Asian sweatshop )

 seems very strange those government regulators worrying about peasants dying from the workplace   , have higher standards the most hospital wards  ( you should be AT LEAST the plastic visa as well as an N95 mask or BETTER , if the virus is that deadly  or infectious )

 remember all those early hospital workers  caught without adequate PPE  ( it was only 15 months back ) have they all died yet ???


----------



## rederob (29 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> ???
> 
> never worked in a hazardous environment  , say  dealing with  fungus , mould spores and bacteria  being made airborne  , cleaning activity  ( or even sand-blasting ) have you  ??
> 
> ...



Can you translate that into a meaningful sense on topic please.


----------



## divs4ever (29 August 2021)

the first  word should be ** ever **

 if you don't understand the rest , nature will teach it to you

 if you are really interested  go to your local panel-beating workshop  and ask about breathing gear in the spray booth ( and you can see about half that paint  as it is being sprayed  ,  it is much easier to find than a virus )

 that wonderful N95  mask will not do enough even within 5 minutes


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 August 2021)

I certainly agree that these "medical" masks are laughable when compared to anything used in an industrial situation. They're below the level of what would be acceptable even for relatively unharmful nuisance dusts.

Not seeing what it has to do with the economic implications of the pandemic though.


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

wasted resources , and distraction from productivity comes straight to mind  , stuff like extra signage ( and not biodegradable either )

 folks standing outside  doing nothing but checking peoples faces , looks as funny as hell when entering , say a bank  or jeweler 

 in a cratering economy we are wasting time and productivity


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

Why Coles and Woolworths are using robot warehouses

https://thebull.com.au/why-coles-and-woolworths-are-using-robot-warehouses/

DYOR

i hold COL ( courtesy of the WES spin-off) , and WOW at no cash risk

and while we are bickering about masks and lock-downs

THIS is what is happening


----------



## qldfrog (30 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> wasted resources , and distraction from productivity comes straight to mind  , stuff like extra signage ( and not biodegradable either )
> 
> folks standing outside  doing nothing but checking peoples faces , looks as funny as hell when entering , say a bank  or jeweler
> 
> in a cratering economy we are wasting time and productivity



And money..not that money is worth much...and all of these made in china. Who would have thought?🙄🙄


----------



## wayneL (30 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> ( and not biodegradable either )



And while the world virtue signals about banning plastic straws, the dumb masks are a thousand times worse.


----------



## frugal.rock (30 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> And while the world virtue signals about banning plastic straws, the dumb masks are a thousand times worse.



I hear cardboard syringes will be the focus soon... fakenews.


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I dont know if it a sign of the times or just the way life is, but I had a burst water pipe in the wall, it is strata situation the strata insurance dont pay for the plumber to fix it and neither does the contents insurer.
> Normally I use the same insurer for both, but this strata insurer doesnt do contents.
> So Im in for another argument or two,meenwhile the missus os asking why it is taking so long to fix. OMG



The ongoing saga from the 25th July, the plumber removed tiles on the shower wall, to fix the leak a month ago, the Strata insurance say get a quote froma tiler to fix the wall.
I've rung about 7 tilers, they wont even come to look at the job to give a quote, too busy, job too small. Obviously the building stimulus is working.


----------



## Humid (30 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The ongoing saga from the 25th July, the plumber removed tiles on the shower wall, to fix the leak a month ago, the Strata insurance say get a quote froma tiler to fix the wall.
> I've rung about 7 tilers, they wont even come to look at the job to give a quote, too busy, job too small. Obviously the building stimulus is working.



Go to Bunnings tightarse


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2021)

Humid said:


> Go to Bunnings tightarse



The problem is, with it being strata, they own the plumbing etc not you. 
So they want a certificate of waterproofing etc, which means gutting the whole shower and I'm not a tiler.
Maybe you could come and do the job and i'll pay you, smartarse. 🤣


----------



## Humid (30 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is, with it being strata, they own the plumbing etc not you.
> So they want a certificate of waterproofing etc, which means gutting the whole shower and I'm not a tiler.
> Maybe you could come and do the job and i'll pay you, smartarse. 🤣



Being a pom how often do you really use it
Rexona is your answer


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2021)

Humid said:


> Being a pom how often do you really use it
> Rexona is your answer



Lucky we're not at work, I could have you done for racial vilification, mental torment, bullying and name calling, you would be sacked and I'd get 6 weeks holiday's, a compensation payout and a written apology from the company manager. 🤣

I see the mining companies are going to have a name and shame page, for FIFO workers who are "naughty", do you reckon you'll get into the "hall of shame"? 🤣 Or will you be able to keep your nasty streak under control?


----------



## againsthegrain (30 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Lucky we're not at work, I could have you done for racial vilification, mental torment, bullying and name calling, you would be sacked and I'd get 6 weeks holiday's, a compensation payout and a written apology from the company manager. 🤣
> 
> I see the mining companies are going to have a name and shame page, for FIFO workers who are "naughty", do you reckon you'll get into the "hall of shame"? 🤣 Or will you be able to keep your nasty streak under control?




It's not racist if your white


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 August 2021)

Humid said:


> Go to Bunnings tightarse



Bunnings is a hardware store not a trades business.

If the problem is needing someone to do the work then going to a shop that sells the materials doesn't fix that.

If it was me then I'd just do the job but then I'm not dealing with strata....


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

UK car production falls to lowest July level since 1956









						UK car production falls to lowest July level since 1956
					

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Thursday that the UKaposs auto production output fell to its lowest July level since 1956




					www.bignewsnetwork.com
				




 do chips and pings count ??


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Bunnings is a hardware store not a trades business.
> 
> If the problem is needing someone to do the work then going to a shop that sells the materials doesn't fix that.
> 
> If it was me then I'd just do the job but then I'm not dealing with strata....



I've already got the tiles from Bunnings to do it, but why the hell am I paying strata insurance?
Then if I fix it and sell the place and a leak develops, who is at fault and who is responsible, them or me?
 When they have asked for a tiler to carryout the repairs and something to show a waterproof membrane has been installed to Aust standards?
And the history of the incident, is documented with the Strata manager.
I have taken off the shower rose and taps, then installed a perspex sheet to extend past the damaged tiles and put the taps and rose back on so it is usable.
Shouldn't the insurance company send an assessor around, to quantify the damage? Then either organise repairs, or settle the claim with a payout and leave it with me to sort it out?
I mean seriously, they don't say "send us your policy premiums whenever you feel like it", we will cover you anyway.
The contents insurer, said send pictures of the damaged carpet and a quote, the replacement bedroom carpet goes in on Thursday.


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2021)

Vietnam starting to import live cattle from South America, to shore up post covid food supply.








						Local exporters on alert as Brazil sends cattle to Vietnam in live trade first
					

Australia's live export industry is closely watching an historic first shipment of 14,000 bulls from Brazil to Vietnam, Australia's second biggest customer for live cattle.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From the article:
Michael Patching, an agricultural consultant based in Singapore, said the Vietnamese military was understood to be "heavily involved" in the import, in an attempt to shore up food security.

"Ho Chi Minh City has been heavily impacted recently with a severe outbreak of COVID-19 and the city is in severe lockdown," he said.

"The army has been called in to lead the control of [lockdown] and the disease response.


> "So there could be a relationship to that and the food security of the army."



Vietnam is Australia's second biggest customer for live cattle, with close to 300,000 head exported to the country in 2020.

A live export trade between Brazil and South-East Asia has long been discussed, especially as Australian cattle prices continued their rapid rise over the past few years.

"If they are going through the army-channels, then the price side probably doesn't matter, as they are already being subsidised.

"But if [future shipments] had to go through traditional supply chains, then they would be competitive at best."

Dr Patching said the shipment was a test to see if a Brazil-Vietnam live cattle trade was feasible.

He said Indonesia and Thailand would also be closely observing the venture.


----------



## rederob (30 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> if you are really interested  go to your local panel-beating workshop  and ask about breathing gear in the spray booth ( and you can see about half that paint  as it is being sprayed  ,  it is much easier to find than a virus )
> 
> that wonderful N95  mask will not do enough even within 5 minutes



Covid mitigation strategies are in place because they are proven effective time and again via research. 
These mitigation strategies allow economies to emerge earlier from lockdown and be operational even with covid present.

You claimed that we have seen "... massive changes in scientific thinking WITHOUT new evidence and solid data presented" and I am not aware this is the case.  Can you tell us what they are.


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

so Covid has disappeared  in NSW , Victoria , New Zealand  , Iceland ,  or the UK ??

 obviously  it hasn't , just read the mainstream media try this one    https://www.jpost.com/

 it tries to walk the tight-rope between approved content and real journalism 

 of course you MIGHT have to use a different search engine than Google  to get to informative places 

 so IF these strategies  have worked  time  after time , why aren't they working this time .. when was the last time Australia had a medical lock-down before 2020  what about widespread mask mandates , or sealing state borders  ???

 if the strategies were so well understood  why was Australia allowing international air travel to most of the world in 2020  , 3 months after there was a strong hint of a problem in Asia , that is  China , South Korea , Taiwan and Singapore , obviously  China's neighbours did not believe the virus was contained .  some provided excellent lessons on slowing the spread , which we blissfully ignored  for months 

 and the delightful part of this is you are still debating me about this EIGHTEEN MONTHS after the first known cases in Australia  , telling me how successful this campaign has been BUT we still all must be vaccinated against a HIGHLY infectious virus  .. surely 60% of Australians  have had a brush with the virus by  now  .. you know hanging around medical clinics , medical centres , pharmacies , hospitals 

  i have had to visit FIVE different hospitals during this outbreak  another four different medical centres two pharmacies  and a medical clinic ... OH  OH and two medical pathology collection centres  .. my physiotherapist ( based in a Gym )  , BUT  my other movements are restricted in case i catch the virus  , somebody in the local IGA might be a super-spreader LOL


----------



## over9k (30 August 2021)

Sydney just cracked a new record. Total capitulation getting closer by the day.


----------



## wayneL (30 August 2021)

over9k said:


> Sydney just cracked a new record. Total capitulation getting closer by the day.



Je suis Sweden?

(With apologies)


----------



## over9k (30 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> Je suis Sweden?
> 
> (With apologies)



More like the U.K I suspect. But it's also a bit of a race between the vaccine rollout vs virus spread.


----------



## divs4ever (30 August 2021)

Mask Protection Standards & Medical Face Mask Information For Use​








						ASTM Mask Protection Standards - Surgical & Procedure Masks | PRIMED
					

Access PRIMED Medical Products to learn about the latest information on ASTM mask protection standards. Find information on surgical and procedure masks.




					www.primed.ca
				




*The filtration efficiency and protective ability of a face mask is compromised when the mask becomes wet, torn or dislodged.* Generally speaking, the higher protection value of a mask the longer it will maintain filtration; however, there is no set rule for how long a mask should be worn as it depends on humidity levels, respiration rate, nasal discharge, talking, etc. A medical face mask should be worn for only one patient procedure or visit. If a mask gets wet or soiled it should be replaced.


*ASTM standards are referenced by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), as the endorsed standard in the United States. ASTM F2100 specifies the performance requirements for Medical Face Masks with five basic criteria:

1. BFE (Bacterial Filtration Efficiency): *BFE measures how well the medical face mask filters out bacteria when challenged with a bacteria-containing aerosol. ASTM specifies testing with a droplet size of 3.0 microns containing Staph. Aureus (average size 0.6-0.8 microns). In order to be called a medical/surgical mask, a minimum 95% filtration rate is required. Moderate and high protection masks must have bacterial filtration rates greater than 98%.

Some manufacturers use the Modified Greene & Vesley method to determine the BFE rating. This method is NOT recommended by ASTM for product comparison or evaluating consistency.

*2. PFE (Particulate Filtration Efficiency): *PFE measures how well a hospital mask filters sub-micron particles with the expectation that viruses will be filtered in a similar manner. The higher the percentage, the better the mask filtration. Although testing is available using a particle size from 0.1 to 5.0 microns, ASTM F2100 specifies that a particle size of 0.1 micron be used.

When comparing test results it is important to note the size of the test particles used, as use of a larger particle size will produce a misleading PFE rating.

*3. Fluid Resistance: *Fluid resistance reflects the surgical mask’s ability to minimize the amount of fluid that could transfer from the outer layers through to the inner layer as the result of a splash or spray. ASTM specifies testing with synthetic blood at pressures of 80, 120, or 160 mm Hg to qualify for low, medium, or high fluid resistance. These pressures correlate to blood pressure: 80 mm Hg = venous pressure (Level 1), 120 mm Hg = arterial pressure (Level 2), and 160 mm Hg (Level 3) correlates to potential high pressures that may occur during trauma, or surgeries that include high pressure irrigation such as orthopedic procedures.

*4. Delta P (Pressure Differential):* Delta P measures the air flow resistance of the medical mask and is an objective measure of breathability. The Delta P is measured in units of mm H2O/cm2 and the lower the value the more breathable the mask feels. The ASTM standard requires that masks have a Delta P of less than 6.0 for moderate and high barrier masks, whereas low barrier masks must have a Delta P of less than 5.0.

*5. Flame Spread: *As hospitals contain sources of oxygen, heat, and fuel the ASTM standards include testing for flame resistance. Testing dictates that all hospital masks must withstand exposure to a burning flame (within a specified distance) for three seconds. All PRIMED masks meet this requirement.

*5.5 ISO Certification:* In addition to the above tests, all medical face masks must be tested to an international standard (ISO 10993-5, 10) for skin sensitivity and cytotoxic tests to ensure that no materials are harmful to the wearer. Tests are conducted on materials used in construction of the mask which come in contact with the user's skin

What is the difference between a medical mask and a respirator?​
Medical masks (surgical/procedure masks) are loose fitting masks that cover the mouth and nose. They are designed to stop large droplets and splashes or sprays, but are not designed to seal tightly to the face or filter small airborne contaminants.

A respirator is an item of PPE designed to reduce exposure to airborne contaminants. Known airborne pathogens include TB, SARS, Anthrax, and Hanta virus. Respirators must be individually selected to fit the wearers face and shown to provide a good seal. They also must be certified by NIOSH, and used within a comprehensive respiratory program including fit testing and training.

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China​








						Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China - Nature Communications
					

Large-scale population screening can provide insights to levels of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, the authors report a citywide screening of ~10,000,000 residents of Wuhan and show that SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.




					www.nature.com
				




Advantage® 290 Half-Mask Respirator with Source Control​




__





						Advantage 290 Half-Mask Respirator with Source Control | MSA Safety | United States
					

The Advantage 290 Elastomeric half-mask respirator provides cost effective healthcare professionals protection up to P100 level and filters exhaled breath.




					us.msasafety.com
				




*Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with COVID-19 Among Symptomatic Adults ≥18 Years in 11 Outpatient Health Care Facilities — United States, July 2020*

The US Centre for Disease Control performed a study which showed that 85 percent of those who contracted Covid-19 during July 2020 were mask wearers. Just 3.9 percent of the study participants never wore a mask.
Original: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf
Erratum. correction: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6938a7.htm?s_cid=mm6938a7_w https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-cdc-study-covid-masks









						47 studies confirm ineffectiveness of masks for COVID and 32 more confirm their negative health effects - LifeSite
					

Young children being forced to wear masks is of particular concern.




					www.lifesitenews.com
				




 now of of course i have NOT gone into the murky world  of PCR testing accuracy  

 which also might taint any recent research


----------



## qldfrog (31 August 2021)

From what i have read and heard lately, some positive news at last.
It seems that it is getting easier this week to get out legally from the prison nation. Yeahhhh🥴
Double jabs: good boy..good boy; and more than 3 months away are key criteria it seems
Now the logistic is still a nightmare due to gov needs..you need a ticket out to apply, but do not know if you can or when, to buy the ticket, and obviously cost but we have more chances to be "allowed"
Will be a long process...
Not even looking at any coming back scenario so need to ensure ability to either not come back at all or years later
Obvious economic impacts but some hope at long last


----------



## rederob (31 August 2021)

divs4ever said:


> Mask Protection Standards & Medical Face Mask Information For Use​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The medical science on mask wearing is unequivocal, and an essential component of opening up strategies, yet you dig up irrelevant and discredited information.    Your CDC link for example was about the relevance of close contact settings, and actually advocated greater mask wearing as a strategy to reduce covid.  Your link to a Lifesitenews has been discredited to the point that Facebook removed them from their site for covid information violations.

That said, I repeat you claimed we have seen "... massive changes in scientific thinking WITHOUT new evidence and solid data presented" and I am not aware this is the case. Can you tell us what they are?


----------



## sptrawler (31 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I've already got the tiles from Bunnings to do it, but why the hell am I paying strata insurance?
> Then if I fix it and sell the place and a leak develops, who is at fault and who is responsible, them or me?
> When they have asked for a tiler to carryout the repairs and something to show a waterproof membrane has been installed to Aust standards?
> And the history of the incident, is documented with the Strata manager.
> ...



Well finally a close to the burst pipe in the shower wall saga, I rang the insurance company and explained the situation, the lovely lady said was there any damage done other than in the shower, to which I replied yes the carpet which is being repaired under contents insurance.
So the lovely lady said what damage was done in the bathroom, vanities etc. 
I said none the only damage is to the tiles on the wall which were removed to access the ruptured pipe in the wall. 
She said what caused the ruptured pipe, I informed her the plumber who carried out the repair quoted the problem was due to the age of the pipe.
The lovely lady said, that comes under normal wear and tear, which we don't cover, thankyou and have a nice day.


----------



## wayneL (31 August 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Well finally a close to the burst pipe in the shower wall saga, I rang the insurance company and explained the situation, the lovely lady said was there any damage done other than in the shower, to which I replied yes the carpet which is being repaired under contents insurance.
> So the lovely lady said what damage was done in the bathroom, vanities etc.
> I said none the only damage is to the tiles on the wall which were removed to access the ruptured pipe in the wall.
> She said what caused the ruptured pipe, I informed her the plumber who carried out the repair quoted the problem was due to the age of the pipe.
> The lovely lady said, that comes under normal wear and tear, which we don't cover, thankyou and have a nice day.



Not my favourite companies.

We had a horse insured. It got a twisted bowel (in those days, that meant die in absolute agony over many many hours, or euthanize quick smart).

It was a Friday night and insurance company wasn't going to be open til Monday morning. We elected to euthanize that evening.

Insurance company wouldn't pay out as they didn't assess. IOW they expected us to bear the horse writhing in agony for at least 60 hours.

Inhuman c***s.

Luckily we insured via a broker. He was sooooo outraged, he paid us out himself and took insurance co. to court himself. 

He won, but it took 4 years.

I've hated the mongrel bastids ever since.


----------



## sptrawler (31 August 2021)

wayneL said:


> Not my favourite companies.
> 
> We had a horse insured. It got a twisted bowel (in those days, that meant die in absolute agony over many many hours, or euthanize quick smart).
> 
> ...



Yep like I said, they are quick to take the premiums and look for any way to shirk their responsibility. 
Obviously in a strata situation you can't insure the internal plumbing, which I find weird, it is either a part of the contents or a part of the building and I'm paying premiums on both.


----------



## Humid (1 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Yep like I said, they are quick to take the premiums and look for any way to shirk their responsibility.
> Obviously in a strata situation you can't insure the internal plumbing, which I find weird, it is either a part of the contents or a part of the building and I'm paying premiums on both.



Compare it with car insurance and blowing up the engine.
was it copper or plastic piping?


----------



## sptrawler (1 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Compare it with car insurance and blowing up the engine.
> was it copper or plastic piping?



Copper


----------



## over9k (1 September 2021)

Alice Springs:


----------



## Humid (1 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Copper



was it the set or from the pressure side
set is a very common problem....cheap imported sets


----------



## sptrawler (1 September 2021)

It was below the hot water tap, at the connection between the house hot water and the connecting stub below the hot tap, on the pressure side.


----------



## over9k (2 September 2021)

Barbell spread update:

Everything was smashed by the delta variant but check things out since the lows of a fortnight ago:




But very different story when we run things out to the 3 month point:




It's worth noting that the barbell spread was the play to use when markets believed we were on the climbout/the bull**** was in the rear vision mirror etc etc. It was thus also then hit the hardest when delta and so forth hit.

So as best I can tell, the barbell play is essentially a high beta one. If you think we're in the climbout then it's the play to run, but if we're not, then grab the lube.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> I informed her the plumber who carried out the repair quoted the problem was due to the age of the pipe.






sptrawler said:


> It was below the hot water tap, at the connection between the house hot water and the connecting stub below the hot tap, on the pressure side.



Did the plumber replace the pipe?

Because, it sounds to me like the problem would be due to the surfaces to be soldered and mated were not prepared properly in the first place and or a crap soldering job, then it's just a ticking bomb waiting to go off. 

I would think a good joint would last as long as the pipe?
It hasn't been said it was a pinhole leak in the actual pipe, so old pipe sounds like bunkum.

I reckon an apprentice didn't do the job properly years ago.
Give the plumber a blast, cause he's made an assumption which can't be proven which has cost you time and money.


----------



## sptrawler (2 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Did the plumber replace the pipe?
> 
> Because, it sounds to me like the problem would be due to the surfaces to be soldered and mated were not prepared properly in the first place and or a crap soldering job, then it's just a ticking bomb waiting to go off.
> 
> ...



Spot on FG.
It was a crap soldered joint, there was insufficient solder put on in the first place, the pipe wasn't fractured but you could actually see the joint had seperated. The plumber used oxy and silver solder did a good job, put enough on that the join line is obscured.
I should have said I was drilling a hole in the shower wall, to hang a soap holder for my wife, who is vertically challenged, and I drilled through the pipe. 🤣


----------



## Humid (2 September 2021)

Being the hot side sets off alarm bells


----------



## frugal.rock (2 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The plumber used oxy and silver solder did a good job, put enough on that the join line is obscured.



In my opinion, a good job would be taking all old solder off, all copper in area back to bright and shiny... etc.
Without that, it's a bandaid fix really. The question is, how long it will last this time?

At least we know what to say to insurance companies now... mongrels.


----------



## sptrawler (2 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> In my opinion, a good job would be taking all old solder off, all copper in area back to bright and shiny... etc.
> Without that, it's a bandaid fix really. The question is, how long it will last this time?
> 
> At least we know what to say to insurance companies now... mongrels.



The plumber wasn't going to do all that, but he put plenty of silver solder on, and the original one lasted 30 years.
I will probably gut the bathroom in the next couple of years and remove the bath, then make a modern walk in shower recess without a hob, so the pipes to the current shower will be cut in the ceiling space and wont be an issue, as that shower will be removed.
Well that job is all dependent on when the dividends start coming in again, just got to hope @Humid keeps working, to pay for them. 🤣


----------



## sptrawler (2 September 2021)

No, it has been eating at me all day, I can't let it go, what isn't fair wear and tear, if a copper pipe isn't ?  The roof falls in, fair wear and tear, the ceilings fall in, fair wear and tear, the sewage blocks fair wear and tear, the building falls down, fair wear and tear. FFS
I'm going to take it further.


----------



## Humid (2 September 2021)

sptrawler said:


> No, it has been eating at me all day, I can't let it go, what isn't fair wear and tear, if a copper pipe isn't ?  The roof falls in, fair wear and tear, the ceilings fall in, fair wear and tear, the sewage blocks fair wear and tear, the building falls down, fair wear and tear. FFS
> I'm going to take it further.



Nah your on a hiding for nothing
If you want to claim for the damage the leaking tube caused ...no problem 
The hydraulic is a different matter...like a car engine/ gearbox not covered


----------



## Humid (2 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Nah your on a hiding for nothing
> If you want to claim for the damage the leaking tube caused ...no problem
> The hydraulic is a different matter...like a car engine/ gearbox not covered



Try claiming your Hot Water unit and it was your hot water side to boot


----------



## over9k (3 September 2021)

NIO (which I hold) made a big announcement/forward guidance a couple of days ago that their supply is going to be constrained based on this same problem. Tesla did as well. 

Nek minnut: 




One hour. One hour and it was back to its previous price.


----------



## over9k (3 September 2021)

Just in case anyone was wondering just what percentage of all this stimulus is actually being printed (basically all of it).


----------



## frugal.rock (3 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Nah your on a hiding for nothing
> If you want to claim for the damage the leaking tube caused ...no problem
> The hydraulic is a different matter...like a car engine/ gearbox not covered



The difference being moving parts.
There's no fair wear component in plumbing joints, otherwise wouldn't they all be getting redone as part of regular maintenance?

The only fair wear part is the tap washer, seat, spindle and seals etc
Stick to your guns, get the plumber to right the wrong and have it put  on paper.
Take that insurance fwits...


----------



## sptrawler (3 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Nah your on a hiding for nothing
> If you want to claim for the damage the leaking tube caused ...no problem
> The hydraulic is a different matter...like a car engine/ gearbox not covered



Thought about what you said, I see where you are coming from, hard to insure something that requires being maintained like the car engine.
So I see you're right, like gutters if they aren't cleaned etc, looks like i'll be doing a quick job on the shower myself.
Cheers @Humid
@frugal.rock I would love to take it further, but as humid says, it will be a hiding to nothing, next time, any repair invoice won't say age.


----------



## sptrawler (3 September 2021)

What if China slams the brakes on, to hammer the U.S?








						China is deliberately breaking the back of the world’s biggest financial bubble
					

The elephant in the room is China’s ferocious squeeze on its property giants, and it poses a big threat to the global economic recovery.




					www.smh.com.au
				





That would be so interesting, where would your money be safe? BHP, FMG back to low prices, which companies would survive?
My guess, the banks, the new tech minerals and utilities, the rest toast.
Just my opinion. 🤣


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

i suspect China would brake hard enough to harm but NOT self-harm 

China is still working on space research and exploration  , i was expecting China and India to partner in such research  but maybe Russia will have a gutful of sanctions and work closer with China in this area  , ditching the International Space Station co-operation 

 BUT that in no way makes Australia safe , i expect China to continue  business with reliable partners , and cut loose erratic ones , SOME Ozzie companies will do OK  but others had better be looking for new customers , as Australia should have been since 2007  ( as a national policy )

 survivors without a supportive China  , that might be a tough one  , the big 4 banks are seen as highly likely to receive government bail-outs ( but possibly only after depositors and shareholders have been gutted  ) MQG well it has so many fingers in so many pies MAYBE it can even thrive ( repackage broken companies into pension asset funds ) , Ms Rinehart is shipping to South Korea  , but is currently unlisted  , FMG  is liable to be respectful to any willing customer  so has a good chance of surviving  , gold producers should be OK ( if well run ) , copper miners as well ,  nickel .. well they tend to struggle a lot of the time 

you would ideally be looking for companies with no/low debt  AND a reliable customer base  ( the low debt nukes most of the big utility companies  , i assume  new capital would dry up  so anyone not almost fully funded now will struggle , if not currently running at a solid profit ( and some businesses will disappear anyway  depending on the new way forward )

 many will disagree with me when i say WOW is  struggling already  , i see lean times there , at least WES has diversified assets and a war-chest  , COL is still to prove itself 

 the recent work from home trend  will probably cripple office space  as an investment vehicle 

 let's see if the banks can weather the storm ( without extra help ) first


----------



## over9k (4 September 2021)

Jobs numbers massively miss estimates: 




But that's just the delta variant. Thing is, we're now heading into winter (think more infectious environments and worse immune systems). Everyone including me were expecting armageddon to begin around this time last year but then the vaccines got announced so markets just ran and ran hard. 

Not really sure what's stopping the inevitable from hitting the fan this time around though. There's still a lot of people that just refuse to get vaccinated, typically those who work supplying the physical goods we're all buying (jobs like truck drivers). 

Freight's going to get even more expensive I suspect as truck drivers are all owner-operators so I'm not sure they can be forced to get vaccinated. Hmm. Might have to see if their contracts can contain vaccination requirement clauses. 

Might be time to grab a few UNP calls and just see.  

If this line of reasoning is sound then air freight should do quite well too (Fedex & UPS). Might grab a few leaps there too. 

HMMMMMMM... 



Everyone, thoughts?


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

surely you didn't think this variant game was going to stop anytime soon 

 even IF everyone gets vaccinated  'the variants ' are roughly  six months ahead of the 'boosters '  so you never catch up 

 so you will need a booster every three or six months  , just like a dog chasing its tail  and big Pharma has a cash-cow for as long as folks line up for this madness 

 it is all a distraction to a global economy that probably failed in September 2019 

 about 3 years back  several economists admitted they knew of no way out of the mess except for a ( big ) war  ,  it is starting to look like  a multi-nation civil war   , how the sides split up  best of luck guessing that 

and why would you get vaccinated  given the initial delay of MOST nations closing the borders  over half the world was exposed to the original virus ( with most surviving )

 the virus in it's many variants is endemic and pervasive   and has been unstoppable for 18 months  , now sure some pills if you THINK you are getting it MIGHT help  , but what do you do next compulsory flu jabs as well ( after mankind has survived the flu for centuries ) '  the jab' always arrives too late .

on the bright side this probably the pain we should have gone through to force us to fix the GFC ( say even say the 2000 crash ) we kicked the can for  an extra ten years to get here .


----------



## over9k (4 September 2021)

Right, but the original vaccine still gives major resistance to the variants


----------



## over9k (4 September 2021)




----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

On some non censured social media, there are talks about many providers stopping offering new life policies.
Banks first...
Not obviously due to covid itself which does not kill anyone who could access life policies, but the vaccine side effect where fit younger people drop dead. Without pre condition so unable to be filtered out by life policy providers.
Anyone having more than anecdotal evidences? And indeed,should we take a life cover while we still can,with better odds than lotto?


----------



## againsthegrain (4 September 2021)

Everybody has been saying it for years earth is over populated, there is too many of us and resources running out etc etc

It really does seem like nature or nature with a helping hand from somebody is kicking in to do some pruning. 

From a pure analytical view the way our society is made up money/power buys your place on the hierarchy in our society = place on evolutionary ladder. 
Since money and power is mostly inherited this does not equal the best genetic stock for our race to evolve and go forward (best man for the job) not talking about race faith or color here.  Being "smart" from a rich family that buys education does not = intelligence.  Forced study and cramming in a prestigious school and mentors will not bring natural intelligence level up, rather create a robot that can repeat wise quotes but not understand them or apply them. 

The virus keeps mutating, keeps targeting the weaker genes, yes it is trimming down the society's fat.

Unlike war or famine which you can ride out in locked communities and mini castles with shark motes the virus is a ever evolving and seeking beast.


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> On some non censured social media, there are talks about many providers stopping offering new life policies.
> Banks first...
> Not obviously due to covid itself which does not kill anyone who could access life policies, but the vaccine side effect where fit younger people drop dead. Without pre condition so unable to be filtered out by life policy providers.
> Anyone having more than anecdotal evidences? And indeed,should we take a life cover while we still can,with better odds than lotto?




 being a person who has very little chance of  buying a life insurance policy  ( currently )  , my long-term stance of 'life insurance ' is that you are gambling that the company will pay out when it is time to claim  and if you are dead ( and no dependents to benefit ) you may as well just invest those premiums , elsewhere betting you will survive a little longer ( and some distant  relative will decide on any long-term benefits  )

 now sure i hold QBE and SUN so do not deny the right of others to insure their lives ( it fact earn a little profit from it )
 but are vaccine effects the worry , or maybe the companies foresee a period  of unrest coming ( and a higher death rate  , for related disturbances  )

 given the move to walk away from NEW life insurance policies  , how will that affect Superannuation ' extras '  in younger workers  Super, over-inflated premiums due to lack of competition  , or will life insurance no longer be part of the 'package ' swinging more to  the 'income protection'  side of things .

 after all long-term health and employment/earning stability have been affected by the virus reaction in many cases as well


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Everybody has been saying it for years earth is over populated, there is too many of us and resources running out etc etc
> 
> It really does seem like nature or nature with a helping hand from somebody is kicking in to do some pruning.
> 
> ...



running out of resources , or some being excessively greedy  ( or lazy , and not reusing resources already in used and pushed aside  )

 i  guess time will  tell


----------



## againsthegrain (4 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> running out of resources , or some being excessively greedy  ( or lazy , and not reusing resources already in used and pushed aside  )
> 
> i  guess time will  tell




All you need is just to turn on the tv and see kim kardashian flying on a private jet from 1 20 room mansion to another,  sums up all the key words you mentioned greedy, lazy and not reusing resources


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> All you need is just to turn on the tv and see kim kardashian flying on a private jet from 1 20 room mansion to another,  sums up all the key words you mentioned greedy, lazy and not reusing resources



and too numerous but that's being sorted out with vaccines for a long term solution


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> All you need is just to turn on the tv and see kim kardashian flying on a private jet from 1 20 room mansion to another,  sums up all the key words you mentioned greedy, lazy and not reusing resources



 TV ?? despite being in a populous area  the reception  is nil , and i see no incentive to fix the reception  issue 

 age is already regulating  my IQ activity , i don't need media-assist 

but i wasn't just talking about the billionaires  ( or even the multi-millionaires ) i was talking about government departments that over-order , businesses  that could be more efficient  , and the list could trickle all the way down to those  who don't reuse glass and plastic containers  , but believe in the recycle myth 

 i can foresee the days when Australia will find profit  by mining the municipal waste sites


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> and too numerous but that's being sorted out with vaccines for a long term solution



am not sure the 'vaccines' will be the solution  , they MIGHT be increasing the problem  ( excessive inequality without accompanying productivity )

 i would be curled up in laughter  , if  all the 'new connectivity' was disrupted  by solar activity  , or a change in the Earths magnetic fields


----------



## againsthegrain (4 September 2021)

This thread it seems has been scorched by a solar flare 😂 🤪 🌩


----------



## Humid (4 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> TV ?? despite being in a populous area  the reception  is nil , and i see no incentive to fix the reception  issue
> 
> age is already regulating  my IQ activity , i don't need media-assist
> 
> ...











						Google TV
					

Enjoy content from your favourite apps, organised just for you. Tune into the latest movies and shows, curate watchlists, and control smart home devices. Meet the streaming device that helps you do more with your TV.




					tv.google


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

i resist using Google in any form as well  ( browser , search engine, TV , etc. etc.

 if i want to live in an echo chamber  i can close the door and plug in an electric guitar ( or keyboard ) and just create whatever i want

 BTW streaming relies on our recent infrastructure success  .. the NBN  ( sarcasm dripping with vitriol )

 downloading to USB storage works fine after it is finally finished downloading


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> am not sure the 'vaccines' will be the solution  , they MIGHT be increasing the problem  ( excessive inequality without accompanying productivity )
> 
> i would be curled up in laughter  , if  all the 'new connectivity' was disrupted  by solar activity  , or a change in the Earths magnetic fields



A nice solar flare could help set back mankind priorities


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

set back ??

 not all change is bad


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> set back ??
> 
> not all change is bad



Going back from crap priorities to real world problem solving.that is when you discover the King is naked aka woke west...


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

modern society is being faced with a choice  , start walking progress back to a world where real skills  are rewarded most ( or even further back ) , or forward into a woke new world  where truth and reality are treason ( or terrorism ) and productivity will shrink into insignificance


----------



## wayneL (4 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> A nice solar flare could help set back mankind priorities



And would show the folly of excessive reliance on technology and electronic interconnectedness.

Any thoughts of a cashless society would be sorted pretty quickly by 1 unfortunately directed solar flare... Or even just a nuke blast in the stratosphere.. 

Either would totally disable any first world country as things stand at the moment.


----------



## Humid (4 September 2021)

Seeing Centrelink lines snaking down the footpath and people eating into their super recently,many have reached that cashless moment.
Is it time for more toilet paper?


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> And would show the folly of excessive reliance on technology and electronic interconnectedness.
> 
> Any thoughts of a cashless society would be sorted pretty quickly by 1 unfortunately directed solar flare... Or even just a nuke blast in the stratosphere..
> 
> Either would totally disable any first world country as things stand at the moment.



 that has been the deterrent   in the world  SO FAR 

 now a bio-weapon ( or chemical weapon ) that leaves infrastructure intact ... that has a lot of appeal to some .

 but as i see it  the IoT ( internet of Things ) does have it's flaws  , another is the assumption that data will be transferred without error across huge amounts of data or will be insignificant if they happen


----------



## wayneL (4 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Seeing Centrelink lines snaking down the footpath and people eating into their super recently,many have reached that cashless moment.
> Is it time for more toilet paper?



Cashless is not necessarily the same as cashless.

But there may soon be a correlation between cash and toilet paper.

My idea is to have assets readily converted to whatever medium of exchange is expedient at the time...
 Which might be kalashnikovs and 7.62s... who the hell knows?


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Seeing Centrelink lines snaking down the footpath and people eating into their super recently,many have reached that cashless moment.
> Is it time for more toilet paper?



 or a substitute  ,  , that could be prudent ( even if you trade it later )


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

knowledge will become very valuable  to those that can apply that knowledge  ( so maybe even some dusty old books  could be better than gold )


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> that has been the deterrent   in the world  SO FAR
> 
> now a bio-weapon ( or chemical weapon ) that leaves infrastructure intact ... that has a lot of appeal to some .
> 
> but as i see it  the IoT ( internet of Things ) does have it's flaws  , another is the assumption that data will be transferred without error across huge amounts of data or will be insignificant if they happen



Error checking is really mastered, the problem is more on assumption of delivery, and or software bugs


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Error checking is really mastered, the problem is more on assumption of delivery, and or software bugs



I initially thought :
 covid, before it became a pseudo pandemic, and at the time no one knew if it was a real threat, would make society harden its process and lower its dependencies.
The opposite happened.
2 y down the track, billions wasted, not a single extra hospital bed built for that purpose, vs China built  emergency hospital in weeks, still importing made in China masks by the billions, even unable to manage existing hostel rooms as quarantine 
Medical research focused on money rent, not sorting the problem
A statin#2 cash cow
No pan Australia strategy, and each supposedly state leader acting like mini Nero.
No plan but increasing power, and a mass of sheeps unable to do basic maths but willing to sacrifice kids as soon as they are over 60...
And here even locking citizens into house or state arrest 
amnesty international was doing marches for less in the 1990s.
Pathetic.the west and its people deserves its fall.history an eternal repeat
Rome burning and Romans enjoying their footy and nrl equivalent, while Goths were slaughering villages at the gates..see Bataclan, NZ yesterday  and Talibans lining up for the next target
Disgusted


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/sa-g...p-with-facial-recognition-gps-tracking-568979


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Error checking is really mastered, the problem is more on assumption of delivery, and or software bugs



 ??? not on some of the ( not that ) old servers i was setting up , i was getting some amazing error generation issues  , some turned out to be virtually useless . ( and that was outside of a high RF environment , as well ) 
 but of course the hardware providers  blame the software  , that excuse has been working since the 1980's 

 and if data delivery accuracy  is suspect maybe they need shielded cables ( have been shocked where that has been ignored )


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.itnews.com.au/news/sa-g...p-with-facial-recognition-gps-tracking-568979



 LOL

 doomed to fail , would have been a complete disaster if used on me  i slept a LOT ( and at irregular hours ) and regularly sleep through messages and phone calls  , they may as well have the copper living in the car across the street LOL


----------



## Humid (4 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> Cashless is not necessarily the same as cashless.
> 
> But there may soon be a correlation between cash and toilet paper.
> 
> ...



Same result


----------



## Humid (4 September 2021)

As they say in Thailand 
No money No honey


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2021)

but then again i don't remember any good reason to re-visit South Australia , in the rest of my life


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> but then again i don't remember any good reason to re-visit South Australia , in the rest of my life



McLaren Vale shiraz and..

That's all ...


----------



## Humid (4 September 2021)

Tasmania looking at 90% over 12s to open up but nothing from the right wing nut jobs


----------



## wayneL (4 September 2021)

Humid said:


> Tasmania looking at 90% over 12s to open up but nothing from the right wing nut jobs



Because there are no right-wing nut jobs in Oz, Bruh.


----------



## Humid (4 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> Because there are no right-wing nut jobs in Oz, Bruh.



From the peanut that brings Komrades and Stalin to the party


----------



## wayneL (4 September 2021)

Humid said:


> From the peanut that brings Komrades and Stalin to the party



Ad Hom, you lose, peanut.


----------



## Humid (5 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> Ad Hom, you lose, peanut.











						Smart People Know Latin - TV Tropes
					

A perfect way to introduce that a character is not only smart, but refined, well- (formally) educated, and upper-class, even aristocratic: have them be able to recite a Latin quotation eloquently or read the moribund language of the Romans as if …




					tvtropes.org


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

the meds say NO alcohol , coffee , garlic 

 and am definitely not gay 

 the only thing i liked in Adelaide last time  was an independent pawn-broker  who is probably out of business now  , and am no longer looking to be a landlord  , so cheap worker cottages  to rent out  aren't on the plans either 

 and now the place will be flooded with Victorians  trying to escape Desperate Dan  and probably a few from NSW just looking for a steady job ( that isn't disrupted by lock-downs )


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> Because there are no right-wing nut jobs in Oz, Bruh.



 actually there is a TINY group of them , but they are vastly out-numbered by Left-wing ones


----------



## qldfrog (5 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> actually there is a TINY group of them , but they are vastly out-numbered by Left-wing ones



But remember,plebs, they are the danger: a whole TVbshow a couple of weeks ago about how dangerous to Australia and NZ these far right guys were, just in time for last week throad slashing exercises by another islamist in nz.
Sorry deranged mind .


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

but governments REFLECT  , the nation was NOT locked down by a knife-wielding radical but WAS locked-down  trying to limit an invisible virus who harmed less people in the same week 

  and both are immigrants ( allowed by government policy )

 we will be needing a new PM are you willing to rescind  any other citizenship entitlements ??

 if no , then  there are several Premier spots up for grabs


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

New Zealand tried to deport attacker for years after he arrived as refugee









						New Zealand tried to deport attacker for years after he arrived as refugee By Reuters
					

New Zealand tried to deport attacker for years after he arrived as refugee




					www.investing.com
				




 that means they have no chance against a virus they can't even see 

 LOL


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

JAPAN'S ROBOT HOTEL: ROBOTS ARE REPLACING HUMANS SO GOVERNMENTS DON'T NEED YOU ANYMORE! (JUNE 2021)



be needed ??

survive to be a vaccine customer ( for the rest of your life )


----------



## againsthegrain (5 September 2021)

ahh well this thread has fallen off a cliff a long time ago, but steering slightly towards the topic.  Bank accounts closed for being anti govt/covid?









						Westpac an Australian Bank Freezing More and More Australians Bank Accounts for No Reason – Is Money Safe in Banks Anymore??
					

Westpac an Australian Bank Freezing More and More Australians Bank Accounts for No Reason – Is Money Safe in Banks Anymore??  By Staff Reporter  More and




					www.londontimes.live


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> ahh well this thread has fallen off a cliff a long time ago, but steering slightly towards the topic.  Bank accounts closed for being anti govt/covid?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 WOW and i dumped my WBC holding  just because they were 'virtue-signalling' and not getting serious  about the remedy of past sins 

(  i still have a handful of WBC because i dumped ex-div. )

  i guess such banks won't have a lot of depositor support  to 'bail-in ' it is amazing to see the BIG 4 shamed in the Hayne Royal Commission  acting so sanctimonious now


----------



## qldfrog (7 September 2021)

Covid did nothing at all as a disease to reduce demand itself, but lockdowns did and hide coming issues.
Now these issues  pop up as a surprise








						India Is Running Out Of Coal
					

India is nowhere near ready to kick fossil fuels as energy demand continues to soar, but it is facing a major shortage of coal that could significantly impact its electricity generation




					finance.yahoo.com


----------



## qldfrog (7 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Covid did nothing at all as a disease to reduce demand itself, but lockdowns did and hide coming issues.
> Now these issues  pop up as a surprise
> 
> 
> ...



We are talking days and week, not years ahead


----------



## over9k (7 September 2021)

Not even remotely surprising.


----------



## over9k (7 September 2021)

Endless stuff like this all over the news now:

















Everyone are getting the jitters. Follow-up post in a moment.


----------



## over9k (7 September 2021)

Obvious downtrend and now seasonality gives us winter.


----------



## over9k (7 September 2021)

Well, the RBA's decided to stick with the taper plan: 




Left the 3 year yield target at 0.1 as well. Keeping the purchases at $4B/week for the rest of the year. 

AUD's run in response.


----------



## qldfrog (8 September 2021)

Another direct effect of the covid scam reactions is Holiday units rentals.
As many others with airbnb, managed holiday units etc, the Frog has a seaside seaview ip rented as holiday unit on the sunny coast.
By location and style.. it is actually liveable, there is a huge  asset price increase on the unit..but until sold, no extra dollars, worse with extra valuation comes extra taxes....
And thanks to lockdown mad nutter state premier, returns are devastated.
Winter months returns are slashed with no NZ or southern state tourists.
Then last minutes lockdowns or changes of holidays created havocs on bookings.
There is a lot of $ going in smoke from Airbnb extra room to holiday units,each contributing a lot to local economy: cleaners, local agents, restaurants and fast food bars to tourist tours.a lot of income and tax dollars which is still going even with not a single case of the actual flu


----------



## over9k (10 September 2021)

I've been predicting that pie graph to essentially be the work/office structure of the future for quite some time now. Lower end personnel in the office less, as you go up the food chain you need to physically be in the office more and more (for all kinds of reasons), once you get to the senior ranks you need to be there all the time (for what I would think are obvious reasons).


----------



## frugal.rock (10 September 2021)

Any chance of a US debt ceiling rundown with timeframe involved in real simpletons language @over9k ?

Would be much obliged to get my head around that issue. Cheers.


----------



## over9k (10 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Any chance of a US debt ceiling rundown with timeframe involved in real simpletons language @over9k ?
> 
> Would be much obliged to get my head around that issue. Cheers.



Republicans will kick up a stink and there will be a whole bunch of hullabaloo and then those in power will just do what they were always going to do anyway and raise it. 

Even all that tea party bullsh!t back in 2010 didn't stop them so there sure isn't anything that will this time around. 


The yanks haven't balanced the budget for a generation, they sure aren't going to start now.


----------



## divs4ever (10 September 2021)

a shutdown would be convenient to cloud the numbers resigning over the vaccine mandate , though

 think of all the pension liabilities they could reduce ( and make it look like the Republican's fault )

mid-term elections coming next year  , everybody's chance  for a spot in the media ( cheap advertising )

  a big soap opera for sure , but the spending is out of control    they will either lift the ceiling or just abandon any pretense of budgeting ( give or take  a nicely exploited shut-down )

most of them are political creatures  you can't expect much from them  they nearly always look after  themselves and their family , and maybe then the party  , a distant third


----------



## wayneL (10 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Republicans will kick up a stink and there will be a whole bunch of hullabaloo and then those in power will just do what they were always going to do anyway and raise it.
> 
> Even all that tea party bullsh!t back in 2010 didn't stop them so there sure isn't anything that will this time around.
> 
> ...



I just hope I live long enough and I have enough precious metals, food supply and ammo (lol, not likely), to see what happens if they lose reserve currency status... or even if the debt market blows the f*** up (likely at some point)

It will be interesting, even if the view is from cloud nine


----------



## divs4ever (10 September 2021)

YELLEN WARNS CONGRESS U.S. COULD DEFAULT SOMETIME IN OCTOBER​


 everyone stocked up on popcorn , chips and marshmallows  ??

 the show will start soon  ( but we have more distractions than usual  ... keep watch for a false flag , dressed up as a Black Swan )


----------



## over9k (11 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> I just hope I live long enough and I have enough precious metals, food supply and ammo (lol, not likely), to see what happens if they lose reserve currency status... or even if the debt market blows the f*** up (likely at some point)
> 
> It will be interesting, even if the view is from cloud nine



Won't happen. The really depressing thing is that the rest of the world is in an even direr financial situation than the united states is. 

The only currency that even began to look like threatening it was the euro and the yanks took care of that quick smart long before brexit put the final nail in that particular coffin.


----------



## frugal.rock (11 September 2021)

I don't do currency trading, but I reckon there's a trade in Lebanese currency, whatever that is.
Political situation has improved and instantly resulted in a ~10% improvement in the value of their currency.  FWIW


----------



## over9k (11 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I don't do currency trading, but I reckon there's a trade in Lebanese currency, whatever that is.
> Political situation has improved and instantly resulted in a ~10% improvement in the value of their currency.  FWIW



I'd want to be pretty confident I knew something about the future political situation that everyone else don't.


----------



## over9k (14 September 2021)

Canberra into another four weeks of lockdown. 

Meanwhile:


----------



## over9k (14 September 2021)

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

CPI bang on estimates, futures flipped, all futures completely flipped to nasdaq highest and dow lowest after tech being in the red and the dow being in the green premarket.

R2k futures meanwhile about twice the level of the other majors.

So, announcement of tapering november, actual tapering to begin in december looking ever more likely.


So with inflation fears subsided (for now), barbell spread may be back on the menu again. With vaccines rolling out and winter coming along and a lot of home gadgets, furniture etc already being bought, I'd like to think that demand is going to subside and supply is going to have increased significantly over the coming months. Only (constant) concern is foreign/overseas supply chains. Shipping still remains backed up etc etc. 

A LOT of that is just microchips.


In short: Keep holding everything.


----------



## divs4ever (15 September 2021)

14 PERCENT INFLATION! - MICHAEL PENTO #5264



 DYOR


----------



## over9k (15 September 2021)

This isn't going to change/recover. Same with bricks & mortar retail, shopping centres, business travel, etc etc. The future is now.


----------



## againsthegrain (16 September 2021)

When everything is opened up again,  concerts pubs sports are the place to be I wonder what will happen to all the city folk that fled to the country.  Will they suddenly feel empty and secluded and rush back to the city?


----------



## divs4ever (16 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> When everything is opened up again,  concerts pubs sports are the place to be I wonder what will happen to all the city folk that fled to the country.  Will they suddenly feel empty and secluded and rush back to the city?



 most will have probably died waiting ( for all the restrictions to be lifted )

 besides a 5 acre paddock can be a  great music venue ( even a drive-in ) , and you probably should be brewing/distilling your own anyway by now


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> When everything is opened up again,  concerts pubs sports are the place to be I wonder what will happen to all the city folk that fled to the country.  Will they suddenly feel empty and secluded and rush back to the city?



Things like that are back up and running in the UK so the figures from London would be somewhat telling I'd expect.


----------



## sptrawler (16 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Things like that are back up and running in the UK so the figures from London would be somewhat telling I'd expect.



My BIL is a State manager of a multinational company, he has only been into the office a handful of time since the pandemic began, also a nephew is an IT programmer for a major mining company, same deal he hasn't been to the office at all since the start of lockdowns.


----------



## over9k (16 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> When everything is opened up again,  concerts pubs sports are the place to be I wonder what will happen to all the city folk that fled to the country.  Will they suddenly feel empty and secluded and rush back to the city?



Doubtful, I know a lot of people of my generation/age group (I'm 31) that left the major cities and moved to the secondary cities like wollongong, geelong, newcastle, sunshine coast, albury/wodonga etc etc. One couple even moved to cairns. 

I'm yet to hear of a single one that's regretted it. Some even planned it with their parents and so the whole family sold up what used to be a normal 3 or 4 bedroom house in sydney, moved to wollongong, bought a palace, and banked a lazy half million difference. 

It sure beats the ratrace and it enables the grandparents to just duck over any time they want or them to bring the grandkids over without spending 4 hrs return drive to & from the middle of sydney. 



None have regretted it for a second. I know quite literally ONE couple that haven't already left sydney or are at least planning to and that's only because she works at RPA. 

I've actually wondered how long that particular clock is going to tick before they bail too as they've already had their first kid and I think #2 is on the way but we'll see. 


Being able to go & get shitfaced blackout drunk on booze or off your face on drugs at the 'cross isn't really a priority when you have a toddler & a newborn.


----------



## wayneL (16 September 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> When everything is opened up again,  concerts pubs sports are the place to be I wonder what will happen to all the city folk that fled to the country.  Will they suddenly feel empty and secluded and rush back to the city?



What's not to like about the country?
Tank water, praying for rain all the time, a couple of useless nags in the paddock that you never ride... Plus a small herd of sheep of which the ram always wants to headbutt you in the nuts...

Weekends spraying weeds, fixing fencing, trying to rank all that damned heifer that keeps breaking into your paddock...

Chopping firewood, then 6 months later freaking out about the massive fire heading for your home... No gorgonzola piccante in the local Coles.

Trying to get rid of the three dozen extra eggs per week you accumulate from your chooks.... and everybody you know also has 3 dozen extra eggs per week... And everybody is just so sick of eggs.

Guinness only by special order from the local Bottle-O... and nowhere within 200 km to service the Lambo.

But...

You can hear the birds twittering, you know your neighbours, even though you can't see them and they can't see you walking around in he nuddie and the most complicated decision you usually have to make is which spray is going to knock off the Patterson's Curse.

It's nice to be close enough to the city to visit, but it's nicer to go home to the bush. Life is real there.

FWIW


----------



## divs4ever (16 September 2021)

https://greatgameindia.com/delta-variant-resistant-vaccines/


----------



## divs4ever (16 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> What's not to like about the country?
> Tank water, praying for rain all the time, a couple of useless nags in the paddock that you never ride... Plus a small herd of sheep of which the ram always wants to headbutt you in the nuts...
> 
> Weekends spraying weeds, fixing fencing, trying to rank all that damned heifer that keeps breaking into your paddock...
> ...



 the nags are to pull the tractor out when it gets bogged ( but you might need a winch as well, they are only two horsepower after all )

 there is solar now , not a complete answer but a help ,  stand side on to the ram ( i learned that in NZ in 1972  and if you are quick a knee to it's head teaches it to look for someone else , hopefully a trespasser) you probably should have chosen geese  , bigger eggs more meat  aggressive security  , and possibly goats for the meat/milk supply and not bad at weed control as well )

 the sticks are just different to the city , the problems are always the same ... unwanted guests , no matter how many legs they have


----------



## over9k (16 September 2021)

The news is now echoing my sentiments: 




The real curveball is energy. It's had a wild run over the last few days but it's really only been the last few days. It was falling like a ship from heaven when delta hit.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Being able to go & get shitfaced blackout drunk on booze or off your face on drugs at the 'cross isn't really a priority when you have a toddler & a newborn.



I'm guessing you haven't been to the Cross for a while then?

If you're looking to party then you'd be better off just about anywhere else really.


----------



## divs4ever (16 September 2021)

energy was always the curve-ball  , then they  tried to disrupt it  with the carbon credits ( tax scam )

most technology needs energy to run  including the global surveillance state  , but the powers that be what the masses to pay for their enslavement

 don't forget option C ( back to the Stone Age ) when the best made plans fail catastrophically

 BTW all the Angels came from heaven  , but some decided to not go back


----------



## over9k (16 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm guessing you haven't been to the Cross for a while then?
> 
> If you're looking to party then you'd be better off just about anywhere else really.



Nah, haven't been near it for years. Is it **** now?


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Nah, haven't been near it for years. Is it **** now?



In short, it was pretty much dead before the pandemic. Government regulations > businesses shut > buildings either empty or put to other uses eg residential.

I'm too old for that to be my scene these days but took a look last time I was in Sydney (prior to the pandemic) just for curiosity and yeah, it's pretty quiet there now.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 September 2021)

Wasn't really sure where to post this since it cuts across all sorts of issues - natural gas industry, inflation, climate change, commodity prices, potential market top and so on. Ultimately though the situation is another example of something being physically constrained as with shipping, chips and so on so I've put it here.



> Natural gas prices are at record highs as economies around the world begin to recover from the Covid crisis






> The high prices have already led two large UK fertiliser plants to close.












						Gas price rises prompt urgent government talks
					

There are concerns the high price of wholesale gas could have a far-reaching impact on the economy.



					www.bbc.com
				




It's becoming quite an issue in Europe generally. Physically short supplies of natural gas and the price is going through the roof, now reaching the point of actual shutdowns in industries such as fertilizer and steel (and not just in the UK, it's happening more broadly across the EU), leading to potential shortages of those products in due course.

More broadly, a key point I'll note is that pretty much every significant top in the major stock market indices since WW2 was immediately preceded by an energy crisis, either physical shortages or a major run up in price, globally or at least in a major region economically. Well, we have the early stages of that taking place right now in the UK and EU and they're big enough to matter so pay close attention to what comes next....


----------



## over9k (18 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Wasn't really sure where to post this since it cuts across all sorts of issues - natural gas industry, inflation, climate change, commodity prices, potential market top and so on. Ultimately though the situation is another example of something being physically constrained as with shipping, chips and so on so I've put it here.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeeeeeeep:





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis that’s been years in the making leaves the continent relying on the vagaries of the weather.

Faced with surging gas and electricity prices, countries from the U.K. to Germany will need to count on mild temperatures to get through the heating season. Europe is short of gas and coal and if the wind doesn’t blow, the worst-case scenario could play out: widespread blackouts that force businesses and factories to shut.

The unprecedented energy crunch has been brewing for years, with Europe growing increasingly dependent on intermittent sources of energy such as wind and solar while investments in fossil fuels declined. Environmental policy has also pushed some countries to shut their coal and nuclear fleets, reducing the number of power plants that could serve as back-up in times of shortages.



Can't produce this stuff if lockdowns stop people from producing it can you?


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Europe is bracing for a tough winter as an energy crisis



Seems to be going bad rather quickly at the moment:



> *At least four of the smaller UK energy companies are expected to go bust next week amid soaring wholesale gas prices.*






> At the beginning of 2021 there were 70 energy suppliers in the UK. Industry sources say there may be as few as 10 left by the end of the year.












						Four more small energy firms could go bust next week
					

Rising wholesale gas prices means some companies are unable to supply energy customers have paid for.



					www.bbc.com
				




Noting that two other companies shut down this week.

As I've said in other threads, the potential for that sort of financial blow up is very real in Australia as well. Some companies are well hedged but others aren't.

If this continues then the impact on the UK, the EU more generally and with potential spread to other countries via the LNG market will be significant. Keep a close watch.....


----------



## divs4ever (19 September 2021)

yes an interesting time to be bullying Russia over it's policies . watch for Ukraine to exploit it's temporary advantage over EU gas supplies 

 i would be watching the EU AND UK they are still intertwined enough to share the fate they deserve UK had a chance of a separate fate and bungled it


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 September 2021)

More on the Europe gas situation:









						Column: Surging European gas prices to drive down pre-winter demand: Kemp
					

European gas prices are surging on tight inventories heading into winter, incentivising power producers to switch back to coal and industrial users to consider temporary plant closures.




					www.reuters.com
				




In particular I draw attention to:



> industrial users to consider temporary plant closures.




Along with the situation in China with Evergrande Group, this would seem to be another thing big enough to potentially rattle markets. A shortage of energy in Europe will flow onto lots of things and the EU + UK is big enough to matter.


----------



## qldfrog (20 September 2021)

As I have been winging and ranting since the closure of borders:
We In Australia are alreally left behind:
https://www.mexicanist.com/l/cancun-airport/
Cancun airport has caught up and is just 1% down on pre covid 2019 figures.
Australia: The new North Korea...  but a victory for rhe planet,all this carbon saved.....another effort Australia and you could stop domestic travel and tourism too.
Oops already done.
Greta will be proud of us ....


----------



## divs4ever (20 September 2021)

more  needs to be done film stars , footballers and politicians  are still wasting jet fuel


----------



## qldfrog (20 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> more  needs to be done film stars , footballers and politicians  are still wasting jet fuel



mstars and sport men for the roman games, politician and rich top 0.1% are exempted of course.
While Rome is burning...


----------



## over9k (20 September 2021)

AUD shorts now at highest level since the crash of last year: 









						AUD shorts at high levels, last seen March 2020
					

Via Sean Callow at Westpac a heads up on what do seem to be extreme levels of AUD shorts.  Remarks: AUD/USD is on its lows for the session as I post, AUD lower on what are a number of factors but most obviously the Evergrande woes being expressed in a big slide in HK equities today - AUD a...




					www.forexlive.com


----------



## frugal.rock (20 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> more  needs to be done film stars , footballers and politicians  are still wasting jet fuel



Private chartered jet Uber rideshare you think would do it?


----------



## qldfrog (21 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Private chartered jet Uber rideshare you think would do it?



They will own nothing but be happy ROL


----------



## qldfrog (21 September 2021)

Back to this covid gigascam effect:
An interesting in my view article on participation in the US and the most recent Covid linked accentuation of the trend https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html
In my far right anti marxist view of the world 😊, this is just the local consequence of socialism creeping up in the US
.


----------



## qldfrog (21 September 2021)

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-economic-growth-outlook-20210921-p58tj3.html


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## divs4ever (21 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> They will own nothing but be happy ROL



many of them own nothing already  , it is all locked up in a trust   or charitable foundation ( the very low tax outcome of this is just a coincidence )


----------



## sptrawler (22 September 2021)

China to stop funding coal power generation in foreign countries, I guess that will ensure nobody challenges their position of being the cheapest manufacturing country, let everyone else go green while they smog along into the future.  








						Xi says China will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad
					

Xi provided no details in his announcement, but China has been under heavy diplomatic pressure to put an end to its coal financing overseas.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
Byford Tsang, a policy analyst for E3G, said that while this represents a big step, it is not quite a death knell for coal. That’s because China last year added as much new coal power domestically as was just cancelled abroad, he said. But Lewis said official data from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce showed no new coal plants financed abroad in the first half of 2021.

What will really matter is when China stops building new coal plants at home and shutters old ones, Tsang said. That will be part of a push in the G-20 meetings in Italy next month, he said.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 September 2021)

It would be most unfortunate to vaccinate everyone, remove lockdowns and other restrictions, then find you can't go anywhere anyway because you can't get petrol.

For the UK that seems to be the latest thing in short supply. Not petrol as such, just the ability to actually get hold of some.









						Fuel supply: UK suspends competition law to get petrol to forecourts
					

It comes as the Petrol Retailers Association warns that up to two-thirds of its members are out of fuel.



					www.bbc.com
				




At least it's not toilet paper this time.


----------



## wayneL (27 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> It would be most unfortunate to vaccinate everyone, remove lockdowns and other restrictions, then find you can't go anywhere anyway because you can't get petrol.
> 
> For the UK that seems to be the latest thing in short supply. Not petrol as such, just the ability to actually get hold of some.
> 
> ...



I think I would prefer to be able to stock up on a 44 gallon drum of diesel, than trolley full of bog roll.

Shredded newspaper might be a bit undignified to wipe your @ss with, but supply of a fuel is a matter of survival for many. Our country only has 20 days supply of oil in reserve and even a minor supply chain disruption could see us in deep doo doo

I'm a bit alarmed to be frank and I'm actually going Mormon (a years supply of food, bog roll, and *Guinness)... And growing our own veggies etc.

And if worse comes to worse.... Horse meat jerky lmao.

I've always joked about having a Kalashnikov and 10000 rounds of ammo buried in the back garden but I actually wish that I had done that.


----------



## wabullfrog (27 September 2021)

US 10 year getting close to 1.5%. Highest it;s been for a couple of months, short term blip or something more?


----------



## over9k (28 September 2021)

Bit of a virus snoozefest last week with evergrande and the evergrande stuff threw a wrench in the works with everything else going on but now that's in the rear vision mirror (mostly) we can get some clarity on the inflation swing play being back on the cards.

With the winter energy crisis that's hitting so energy & banks are screaming whilst tech is plunging.

I posted a while back how much back & forth there was last time this happened:


over9k said:


> Alright here's your week:
> 
> View attachment 126998
> 
> ...



And we're getting round two now, here's our first proper divergence in weeks:




So it's time to get busy. Swing plays abound.


In answer to your question, we're heading into winter so I think there's stacks of volatility/inflation fears/etc etc to be had yet. Because those who don't trust the vaccines generally work in the lower skilled jobs like truck driving, ship unloading, pipe fixing (plumbing) etc that actually provide/transport all of our needs like food, energy etc, this gives us supply problems, which drives prices (inflation) up. Combine that with winter being a much worse environment for virus spread and it's bad juju all round.

So, keep a very close eye on the supply side of this. Anything you can think of that will effect supply and thus prices (inflation). Things like truck drivers being convinced (or compelled) to get the vaccines, that sort of thing. This is a pure supply side phenomenon.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Anything you can think of that will effect supply and thus prices (inflation).




Energy comes immediately to mind.

OK, perhaps some personal bias since it's my core area of knowledge but I make the comment with some basis. Among others:

UK natural gas prices have increased dramatically and already a number of retailers (companies that sell gas to consumers) have failed financially. Various estimates suggest that of ~70 retailers in existence a few weeks ago, around 60 are likely to fail by the time this is over so that's most of them going broke. When you're locked into retail contracts at a price below the (now greatly increased) wholesale gas price, anyone not fully hedged is bleeding cash big time and that's a lot of them.

European, as distinct from UK, gas prices in general are up sharply. US domestic natural gas and global LNG prices also up considerably.

China there's reports of major electrical load shedding (rolling blackouts) right now. Most notable comment on that one being:



> The energy shortage at first affected manufacturers across the country, many of whom have had to curb or stop production




Above comment from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58704221

Also whilst the cause is logistics rather than any actual lack of supply as such, it's nonetheless a reality that a large number of petrol stations across the UK have now run dry. Regardless of the cause, if consumers and business can't get petrol and diesel well that stuffs things up hugely. That's largely a transport issue but of course that's not the only purpose petrol and diesel are used for, just the main one but not the only one.

Meanwhile I'll add a general comment that whilst it's not yet sufficient to be mainstream news, there's quite a few electrical grids and gas supply systems across the world that aren't in great shape right now. They're working, consumers are being supplied, but the margin of spare capacity is below the point that an engineer would be comfortable with. That being so, it's inevitable that more "incidents" will occur.

So energy price shocks and in some cases physical disruptions are an issue. Electricity, gas and in some cases liquid fuels too for varying reasons.

Global oil prices are gradually creeping up too.


----------



## over9k (28 September 2021)

Yes and energy is the most important one as it takes energy to produce/move literally anything - you can't harvest food without fuel in the tractors and then you can't transport it to the supermarkets without fuel in the trucks and so on & so forth. 

Let's be clear here though, this inflationary crunch/energy spike has only come about very recently, energy spiked and then crashed in the middle of the year and was subsequently in the doldrums for quite a while: 




The S&P is actually down on the day which shows you just how much everything else is getting absolutely smashed. 


I've been wondering how long before the news starts uttering "transitory" every other sentence like they were 6 months ago.


----------



## over9k (28 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> I think I would prefer to be able to stock up on a 44 gallon drum of diesel, than trolley full of bog roll.
> 
> Shredded newspaper might be a bit undignified to wipe your @ss with, but supply of a fuel is a matter of survival for many. Our country only has 20 days supply of oil in reserve and even a minor supply chain disruption could see us in deep doo doo
> 
> ...



Australia actually uses America's strategic petroleum reserve, see here:


over9k said:


> The Government has splashed the cash for oil but how much have we bought?
> 
> 
> The Energy Minister says the Australian taxpayer has got a great deal, and the country's oil reserves have been boosted, but just how much oil is now in storage is unclear.
> ...



As mentioned, AU just leases/rents them from the yanks. There's only 20 days' of fuel onshore but we have plenty stored over in the USA that would get shipped over in a real pinch.

The americans now also have shale oil/are completely oil independent so as allies, we could just buy some of theirs in an even bigger pinch. 

Buying those submarines off the yanks was not just about getting nuclear powered instead of diesel, it was about strengthening an alliance/creating some good will/putting a favour in the bank with an ally too  



Oil/energy and energy security was not discovered/invested yesterday. Same with food. These types of contingencies were planned for LONG ago I can assure you of that. 

Our leaders are stupid, but they're not _entirely _stupid.


----------



## wayneL (28 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Australia actually uses America's strategic petroleum reserve, see here:
> 
> As mentioned, AU just leases/rents them from the yanks. There's only 20 days' of fuel onshore but we have plenty stored over in the USA that would get shipped over in a real pinch.
> 
> ...



Sure, but that still requires a supply chain. If the poo hits the propeller, it wouldn't take much to interrupt that, or for the yanks to renege.


----------



## over9k (28 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> Sure, but that still requires a supply chain. If the poo hits the propeller, it wouldn't take much to interrupt that, or for the yanks to renege.



No choke points across the pacific, and reference reneging, AU's been USA's strongest ally (along with the UK) for decades. What do you think that big sub deal they just announced was really about? 

Trust me here man, AU is not going to run out of oil in 20 days.


----------



## Craton (28 September 2021)

Can you guys tell me how long it would take to get supplies here from the USA and how safe/secure would those supply tankers be?

Also, how much would we need to keep our reserves at that 20 day level?

Further, I shudder to think of the cost blow out because surely, any disruption to the status quo in the oil pipeline (pun intended) would see a dramatic rise in the barrel of oil.

Then I'm thinking there'd be restrictions to fuel usage for the average bloke and sheila right across this great land.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2021)

over9k said:


> As mentioned, AU just leases/rents them from the yanks. There's only 20 days' of fuel onshore but we have plenty stored over in the USA that would get shipped over in a real pinch.



That’s crude oil which we’ll need to refine.

Using the refineries that we’ve mostly closed and demolished......


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Oil/energy and energy security was not discovered/invested yesterday. Same with food. These types of contingencies were planned for LONG ago I can assure you of that.



We did indeed put plans in place over 40 years ago.

Trouble is, they were undone in the 00’s and Australia is now the only non-compliant OECD country.

We’re formally obligated to hold 90 days of net imports in stock yes, we signed up to the treaty which covers it. Hence the term “non-compliant”.


----------



## wayneL (28 September 2021)

over9k said:


> No choke points across the pacific, and reference reneging, AU's been USA's strongest ally (along with the UK) for decades. What do you think that big sub deal they just announced was really about?
> 
> Trust me here man, AU is not going to run out of oil in 20 days.



I think in many scenarios you are probably absolutely correct, however let's go way out on the tail... and I'm kind of just wondering how fat is that tail?

No pinch points, however still lots of vulnerability.


----------



## over9k (28 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> That’s crude oil which we’ll need to refine.
> 
> Using the refineries that we’ve mostly closed and demolished......



They could refine it too then...




Annual U.S. crude oil production reached another record level at 12.23 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, 1.24 million b/d, or 11%, more than 2018 levels. The 2019 growth rate was down from a 17% growth rate in 2018. In November 2019, monthly U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.86 million b/d, the most monthly crude oil production in U.S. history, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Petroleum Supply Monthly. U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly during the past 10 years, driven mainly by production from tight rock formations developed using horizontal drilling and *hydraulic fracturing *to extract hydrocarbons.


C'mon guys, the idea that the yanks couldn't supply us with the fuel we need is ridiculous. They can produce multi million barrels a day surplus to their own requirements and there is literally NOWHERE between AU & USA to block the shipments. 

This is a non-topic.


----------



## Craton (28 September 2021)

@over9k 
Not really non-topic as it's a by-product of the realisation on how fragile the pre-CV19 supply chains where and possibly, still are.

The reliance on offshore imports and lack of local manufacturing has been profoundly highlighted, I reckon that it was a real shock to many on how bad this situation could quickly escalate in a catastrophic emergency.

So yes, on topic as per the OP title:
Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak​E.g. Climate change and China tensions issues aside, has this perceived oil reserve issue caused the take up and demand for EV to increase more than expected, hence increasing investment in alternative and battery technologies?

From a personal perspective, this pandemic has caused so much instability and even financial disaster for many. The mental health issues alone will have a huge economic impact.

I don't even want to think of the developmental and social issues that have impacted on our younger generations and how these will pan out, thus further implications on the economic equation.

Anyways, I'll leave the discussion to those that have far more to offer.


----------



## qldfrog (28 September 2021)

Craton said:


> @over9k
> Not really non-topic as it's a by-product of the realisation on how fragile the pre-CV19 supply chains where and possibly, still are.
> 
> The reliance on offshore imports and lack of local manufacturing has been profoundly highlighted, I reckon that it was a real shock to many on how bad this situation could quickly escalate in a catastrophic emergency.
> ...



look at the UK petrol crisis too; sure has nothing to do with covid, I would bet not a single petrol tanker truck has been cancelled due to a driver being unable to jump at the driving seat due to sick from Covid, yet..no delivery, panic and you got:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk...y-panic-buying-hits-fuel-supplies-2021-09-27/
and yet we still have petrol there; seen the bog roll panic, how long before we grind to a halt, was at a Coles this afternoon, shelves were empty..I should have taken a picture..That's what happens when my clever Premier block the trucks in to show how muscular and braindead she is
SO we just need to start a panic rush and we collapse; they had put back again the row heads with toilet paper and by next monday we will probably be back in lockdowns (after the final is over)..dumb and dumber..thanks God i do not have to have my business running , can afford to close it..good bye O/S payment streaming into OZ and with 2nd jab today I am soon ready to get out of here


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2021)

over9k said:


> C'mon guys, the idea that the yanks couldn't supply us with the fuel we need is ridiculous. They can produce multi million barrels a day surplus to their own requirements and there is literally NOWHERE between AU & USA to block the shipments.



The issue is that pretty much everyone would have said that prior to the pandemic.

Ask whatever car manufacturer about their supply of IC's and they'd have said nothing to worry about, don't be silly. Same with all manner of other things until supply actually dried up.

Same as if someone had asked the UK government, the EU or China they they too would likely have said nah, we won't be shutting down factories in September 2021 because of an energy shortage don't be silly. And yet here we are with exactly that happening, manufacturing output is being cut.

Focusing on the economics of all this, bottom line is energy prices are rising sharply and in the case of Europe and China supply is now physically scarce to the point of curtailing industrial production. In China's case looking at possibly less food being made too: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-warns-food-security-energy-035319350.html

Now if there's one thing about bull markets in shares it's that with one exception, every one of them since WW2 ended with an energy price hike (not counting routine corrections and "flash crash" type events). The one thing that has been missing for a market top is now starting to fall into place.


----------



## divs4ever (28 September 2021)

what we lack ( due to decisions taken ) is adequate local refining capacity  , we have plenty of the raw resources ( and then  shipped overseas for processing  ,  where we then import much of our fuel needs )


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The issue is that pretty much everyone would have said that prior to the pandemic.
> 
> Ask whatever car manufacturer about their supply of IC's and they'd have said nothing to worry about, don't be silly. Same with all manner of other things until supply actually dried up.
> 
> ...



Sure but microchips aren't oil and Australia isn't over a billion people. Apples & oranges on both counts.


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Bit of a virus snoozefest last week with evergrande and the evergrande stuff threw a wrench in the works with everything else going on but now that's in the rear vision mirror (mostly) we can get some clarity on the inflation swing play being back on the cards.
> 
> With the winter energy crisis that's hitting so energy & banks are screaming whilst tech is plunging.
> 
> ...



Called it:






I'd be willing to have a bet (with the loser making a donation to a charity of the winner's choice) with anyone that thinks that AU is going to run out of oil. It *won't *happen.

Even europe's energy crunch is *gas*, which is largely used for heating, not oil:




Why do you think all the articles are talking about how cold the winter is going to be and how much wind and rain they're going to get?

Very little energy is actually produced (converted) with oil. Aside from car engines, pretty much everything else is done with gas, coal, electricity etc etc:




Hence the concern (over there) about whether the wind is going to blow, how much water is in the dams etc etc. Gas is up fivefold whereas oil is only "just" at about $75/barrel. Not even doubled. 




If anything gets run out of, it's not going to be oil.


----------



## divs4ever (29 September 2021)

run out of crude  probably not , difficulty  supplying petrol and diesel ( and kerosene ) to the pumps  MAYBE

  BPT has several capped wells waiting to go into production ( i assume waiting  for an attractive price  ) , i would guess some other players   would have some capped wells also  , HOWEVER several older refineries are being repurposed into storage facilities  , and we  MIGHT have a transport problem coming to boot 

 now gas will depend on how much we export ( and how much is kept for local consumption )


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

Again, if you're focusing on oil here, you're focusing on the wrong thing. Oil's up about 80%. Gas is up 500.


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

Meanwhile, here's your swing play:


----------



## qldfrog (29 September 2021)

divs4ever said:


> run out of crude  probably not , difficulty  supplying petrol and diesel ( and kerosene ) to the pumps  MAYBE
> 
> BPT has several capped wells waiting to go into production ( i assume waiting  for an attractive price  ) , i would guess some other players   would have some capped wells also  , HOWEVER several older refineries are being repurposed into storage facilities  , and we  MIGHT have a transport problem coming to boot
> 
> now gas will depend on how much we export ( and how much is kept for local consumption )



The issue is indeed capacity and time required to do any large scale transformation.
When it takes a week to have a parcel in qld from victoria after just a couple of sneeze....
not optimistic on the ability to do anything of scale if tankers do not dock at the terminal..but we will have grid power at midday daily.


----------



## qldfrog (29 September 2021)

qldfrog said:


> The issue is indeed capacity and time required to do any large scale transformation.
> When it takes a week to have a parcel in qld from victoria after just a couple of sneeze....
> not optimistic on the ability to do anything of scale if tankers do not dock at the terminal..but we will have grid power at midday daily.



In Syria, people where pinching crude and refining it in kitchen and shed process.so man ingenuity is high
will be harder here with health and safety inspector, EPA rulings and local council zoning😊.
More importantly, doubt many of the gender studies PhDs will be any good at it.
To go back on the more immediate effect, has anyone else noticed empty supermarket shelves or was my Coles experience yesterday just a late delivery truck or a punctual issue?


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

Hard selloff into the close, closing at session lows. I haven't rotated or deployed any cash yet. Tomorrow will be telling.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2021)

@over9k 

I don't think anybody is making the case that we *will run out of oil. The case, or at least case I'm making is that we are quite vulnerable to a tail occurrence.

Let's say China moves on Taiwan, that could set off a chain of events that could leave us isolated for supplies of, well, all sorts of sh¹t.

Will that happen?

Probably not but, it could and we could be seriously farked if that does go down.


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> @over9k
> 
> I don't think anybody is making the case that we *will run out of oil. The case, or at least case I'm making is that we are quite vulnerable to a tail occurrence.
> 
> ...



How? 

Like I said, the oil will just come across the pacific from USA.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 September 2021)

over9k said:


> Gas is up fivefold whereas oil is only "just" at about $75/barrel. Not even doubled.




The real concern though isn't that oil's at $75 but the trend in price. It's up almost 50% year to date.

Natural gas is getting seriously expensive not only in Europe but in any place with pricing linked to LNG. 

Coal also expensive and with physical shortages in some places (notably China).

Oil not yet expensive but it's rising.

Put together that increases the cost of producing and delivering every physical item from food to electronics. It also increases consumer living costs and the cost of running other facilities (buildings etc). That sounds rather inflationary to me.....


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The real concern though isn't that oil's at $75 but the trend in price. It's up almost 50% year to date.
> 
> Natural gas is getting seriously expensive not only in Europe but in any place with pricing linked to LNG.
> 
> ...



Of course. But we were talking about a societal collapse on account of coronavirus.

My point was that it won't be the oil price/an oil shortage that does it.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2021)

over9k said:


> How?
> 
> Like I said, the oil will just come across the pacific from USA.



Ok I realise I'm getting way way way out into black swan territory here, but let's say China and the US have a nuclear exchange and all West coast ports are disabled for some time, suppose China, really having the sh¹ts with Australia, use their navy to disable sea traffic to us.

Let's say the San Andreas fault finally cracks the big one and the modelled tsunami takes out just about the entire Southern US coast.

Let us even suppose that at some point in the future a us administration imposes sanctions on Australia for our newfound totalitarianism (as has already been proposed over there).

All unlikely, but possible. And that's just a couple of scenarios out of a whole basket of unknown unknowns.


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> Ok I realise I'm getting way way way out into black swan territory here, but let's say China and the US have a nuclear exchange and all West coast ports are disabled for some time, suppose China, really having the sh¹ts with Australia, use their navy to disable sea traffic to us.
> 
> Let's say the San Andreas fault finally cracks the big one and the modelled tsunami takes out just about the entire Southern US coast.
> 
> ...



0% probability 

Let's move on:

U.S futures deep into the green 1 hour before the ASX close so I've just bought some LNAS.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 September 2021)

wayneL said:


> I don't think anybody is making the case that we *will run out of oil. The case, or at least case I'm making is that we are quite vulnerable to a tail occurrence.



This.

There's quite a few opportunities to go wrong when you're reliant on supplies from x, who is themselves reliant on raw materials from y, and are outright stuffed if you don't get the product delivered.

My perspective simply comes from life experience and that of being involved with the doing of physical things, including for government. A contract's all well and good until the proverbial hits the fan and once that happens, well the thing that loses every time is physical delivery. When push comes to shove, contracts might be worth $ but there's no actual guarantee of physical delivery - that which can't be done won't be done.

In the context of all this, the real issue isn't so much about probability but consequence.

Reduce the available supply of energy and one way or another you've shrunk the economy. Something has to go, it has to not happen, and that has implications.

Looking at the recent pandemic, it dropped Australia's oil consumption (for all uses in total) by roughly 20%. So that's what a 20% cut in oil supply looks like - major disruption.

Now scale that to whatever figure you care to pick but point is, there's a lot of broad disruption to society and the economy from any disruption to fuel supply. Regardless of how likely or unlikely it is, if it does happen then the economic impact is major.

That said, in the short term it's not something I personally see as a problem. The stuff is flowing right? It's a risk that could blow up someday but right now it hasn't.

What I do see as relevant is the simple point that there's historically a high correlation between energy price shocks and major stock market tops and we do indeed have substantially increasing energy prices across major energy resources at the moment.

That's not to say I think the market has topped out already but historically the situation of rising energy prices > rising inflation > rising interest rates has tended to end badly so I'm paying attention.


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## over9k (29 September 2021)

My point was that if you're focusing on oil, you're focusing on the wrong thing. If things get KO'd, it will be by electricity and/or gas shortages, not oil. 

Even if you're right, something else will do us in long before oil does.


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 September 2021)

over9k said:


> But we were talking about a societal collapse on account of coronavirus.



I wasn't interpreting the thread quite so drastically.   

I'm seeing it as simply economic impacts - businesses shut, costs increased, supply chain disruption and so on is a definite economic impact even if society as a whole carries on.

Pandemic > disruption to lots of physical things including energy industries > physical shortages and price impacts.

Same with anything. Every worker who's spent time sitting at home in lockdown, without being able to carry on working because they do something physical, means lost labour from the economy. It means _something_ didn't get made, built, maintained, repaired or whatever and in due course the effects of that are going to show up.

Energy prices would seem to be an early and obvious example of those effects.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2021)

Nothing is 0% probability.

I would have thought that 2020 and 2021 would have taught you that.


----------



## over9k (29 September 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I wasn't interpreting the thread quite so drastically.
> 
> I'm seeing it as simply economic impacts - businesses shut, costs increased, supply chain disruption and so on is a definite economic impact even if society as a whole carries on.
> 
> ...



It started from wayne talking about buying 44 gallon drums of diesel and just snowballed from there. 


Energy pricies, oil futures etc are down today and the nasdaq futures have been in the green and steadily rising all day so I bought some LNAS this afternoon, so I've just made my first swing play of this particular cycle.


----------



## wayneL (29 September 2021)

over9k said:


> It started from wayne talking about buying 44 gallon drums of diesel and just snowballed from there.



Well that was a little bit tongue in cheek. However I am half serious about that. I do now have a years supply of non perishable food, a veggie garden and a few chooks... And yes the prospect of horse meat jerky is real.

I do not have a 44-gallon drum of diesel, but I do have a couple of tonne of coke for the forge so maybe I could swap some blacksmithing jobs for diesel if the s*** hits the fan.

When problems happen, and I know this is a cliche, they happen gradually and then all at once.

I'm not one to go out and riot and fight for sh¹t, so I prefer to just have some strategic capacity to survive if things turned to crap... If not, nothing ventured nothing gained, we can eventually eat the 16 pallets of baked beans and supply our neighbours with eggs for the next decade, LMAO.


----------



## Gunnerguy (29 September 2021)

Sell lots of ASX8000 November Calls and you’ll be just fine.
Gunnerguy


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## wayneL (30 September 2021)

Interesting survey from the nomad capitalist.... This fellow basically has a channel about escaping the USA to better jurisdictions as far as taxation and liberty is concerned.

As a significant portion of our GDP relies on very high immigration, the result of 11% may be a harbinger of lower future economic growth from this source.

Couple that with the willful destruction SMEs by our petty tyrannical state premiers, and the absence of any sort of economic leadership from The Lodge, and things really don't look good outside of digging up s*** and sending it to China.


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## over9k (1 October 2021)

Australia's been a population ponzi scheme since 2004.


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## over9k (1 October 2021)

Also, the only real bit of news that matters for anything at the moment:


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## over9k (2 October 2021)

Still an absolute sh!tshow everywhere, still an energy crunch, in the U.K the army is now being deployed to drive trucks etc.

Really nothing else to report other than it's the usual SNAFU but with an energy crunch now as well, so banks & energy are running hard. This will abate but doesn't look like happening for a while yet.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 October 2021)

wayneL said:


> the result of 11% may be a harbinger of lower future economic growth from this source.



Well, to be sure, after the 35% go to Ireland, they will then come to Australia.
They just have to work out that they don't like wearing Wellington's for over half the year... and that it's hard to see the rolling green fields when it's fog and snow, and then there's the cold and the the dank... to be sure. 
Taters and Guinness only have so much of a hold on people... to be sure. 
Oh, but then you have the fine Irish lasses, often named Mary.🌷
Although it must be fun on St Pat's day, that's the craic.


----------



## qldfrog (2 October 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, to be sure, after the 35% go to Ireland, they will then come to Australia.
> They just have to work out that they don't like wearing Wellington's for over half the year... and that it's hard to see the rolling green fields when it's fog and snow, and then there's the cold and the the dank... to be sure.
> Taters and Guinness only have so much of a hold on people... to be sure.
> Oh, but then you have the fine Irish lasses, often named Mary.🌷
> Although it must be fun on St Pat's day, that's the craic.



and then discover Victoria or Qld...run guys run


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## over9k (5 October 2021)

Still no signs of the shortage abating so energy & banks still running hard whilst tech & basically everything else gets smashed. Got a nice scalp flogging LNAS (on the ASX) earlier today for a cheeky 3% but otherwise still haven't done anything.

I'll update when I think these problems are actually going to subside/when I think it'll be time to rotate but that's not yet.

All still a supply-side problem, though OPEC's just opened the taps by 400k barrels/day so that's good but they aren't going to arrive in the next 5 minutes either.


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## over9k (5 October 2021)

Awwwwwww yeah

NRGU & GUSH are now doubles since the 20 Aug lows. A sum total of about two weeks.


----------



## over9k (5 October 2021)

Also: 




Interesting correlation.


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## over9k (6 October 2021)

Solid run in tech today despite the fact that bonds ran hard, energy & banks continued to climb, this is some funny business so needs an eye kept on it. More news tomorrow.


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## over9k (6 October 2021)

And now the funny business is over: 




No sign of abating.


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## over9k (6 October 2021)

Futures in the toilet too: 




Still about 70% cash, 15% banks, 15% energy. No plans to change anything yet.


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## over9k (6 October 2021)

Lol. It just keeps getting worse:


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Lol. It just keeps getting worse:



To try and put it into perspective, it's equivalent in energy terms to paying $288 USD for a barrel of oil or about $1200 for a tonne of thermal coal (approximately since coal varies significantly in quality).

Financially that's a wrecking ball. Pretty much no industrial production is viable at that price and also few if any retailers can pass that cost onto households and non-industrial businesses in full due to contracts and so on.

I won't try and predict who but fair chance we'll see some financial blow ups over this. Over 12 months at this price the the EU gas market would amount to just on USD 1 trillion, so about US $ 100 million per hour more than normal is being spent. That adds up pretty quickly.....


----------



## sptrawler (6 October 2021)

Well add to that the carbon tax the EU are going to put on and it all becomes a very challenging manufacturing environment, or a massive implosion due to ideology being way ahead of technology.
When will Germany build a brand new nuclear power station?


----------



## qldfrog (6 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Well add to that the carbon tax the EU are going to put on and it all becomes a very challenging manufacturing environment, or a massive implosion due to ideology being way ahead of technology.
> When will Germany build a brand new nuclear power station?



NEVER a whole country brainwashed by the leftist, antifida level..
at the time, before the wall fell, nuclear was bad was bad american missiles etc 
And bad luck: karma strikes with CC narrative in self conflict with 50year of gruenen talks  ahh the irony


----------



## over9k (6 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> To try and put it into perspective, it's equivalent in energy terms to paying $288 USD for a barrel of oil or about $1200 for a tonne of thermal coal (approximately since coal varies significantly in quality).
> 
> Financially that's a wrecking ball. Pretty much no industrial production is viable at that price and also few if any retailers can pass that cost onto households and non-industrial businesses in full due to contracts and so on.
> 
> I won't try and predict who but fair chance we'll see some financial blow ups over this. Over 12 months at this price the the EU gas market would amount to just on USD 1 trillion, so about US $ 100 million per hour more than normal is being spent. That adds up pretty quickly.....



At least the U.K can fire up the printing presses quickly. I shudder to think how long this is going to take the EU to respond to.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

And I'm *out*, sold my banks & energy plays, now nothing but cash & crypto. 

Bitcoin's run like 30% in a bit over a week so looks like my timing was actually pretty good for a change.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 October 2021)

The contrarian in me sees too many bears calling for the market to fall for this to be a major top.

I suspect we're in the vicinity of one, a major top, in a "big picture" sense in terms of broad timing and but I'm not convinced we've seen it quite yet for that reason. Too many calling it and the whole thing seems too obvious.

I could of course be completely wrong....


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Solid bounce last night, asian tech stocks have screamed today  and yank futures are deep into the green but remember, this is after hitting a record low yesterday. We had this after the evergrande bailout and on a couple of other days too so I'm not seeing any evidence of any kind of trend yet.

We haven't had two decent green days in a row for quite a while now, there's just been bounces in an otherwise plummeting market.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Here's some unbelievably sophisticated technical analysis: 







Really trying very hard to see a pattern here though. 

Futures are well into the green FWIW.


----------



## wayneL (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> And I'm *out*, sold my banks & energy plays, now nothing but cash & crypto.
> 
> Bitcoin's run like 30% in a bit over a week so looks like my timing was actually pretty good for a change.



I'm out of stocks too as of last week.

I do think that the cantillon effect will once again prop up this house of cards, but the old climbing the wall of worry crap is just not for me.

HODLing gold silver BTC and ETH...  and now a bunch of worthless shekels I'm wondering what to do with.

I can feel my limbic brain doing it's best to take over, so probably whatever I do is going to be exactly the wrong god damn thing.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Good grief, we might actually have two green days in a row now:





We've even had an asian tech bounce:





HOWEVER:




So yeah. Context. Long term, I'm not bullish on anywhere in asia at all. The only thing I've been thinking about is NIO and I've been in & out of that a few times. Haven't even thought about anything else.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

wayneL said:


> I'm out of stocks too as of last week.
> 
> I do think that the cantillon effect will once again prop up this house of cards, but the old climbing the wall of worry crap is just not for me.
> 
> ...



Yeah I sold TQQQ (my biggest holding) at $144 so not quite at the peak but not long after it. My trigger finger is itchy too  

Thought about actually mining coins or is that how you got them originally?


----------



## wayneL (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Yeah I sold TQQQ (my biggest holding) at $144 so not quite at the peak but not long after it. My trigger finger is itchy too
> 
> Thought about actually mining coins or is that how you got them originally?



Never really understood mining till recently... and maybe too dumb to figure that out anyway.... Just bought in... And of course wish that I had bought a whole lot more.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Looks like russia to the rescue for europe's gas problem too (lol at that, I bet the EU's absolutely seething) so the "crisis" might have been averted quite a bit. 

No idea about how bad the virus is in russia but obviously not bad enough to shut their wells off so I guess that's good. 

No idea if a similiar deal is being thrashed out with china or whomever but it wouldn't surprise me if there is. 


Either way, sentiment has improved dramatically, so there's probably money to be made if you're brave. I might put some *small* degen tech buys in tomorrow (not tonight) and see as something tells me these jitters won't be gone enough to avoid a friday selloff. 

Something would have to cause a BIG shift in sentiment for markets to be willing to risk holding over the weekend now IMO. Once bitten twice shy and all that. 


So I might be in for a degen buy on friday in the hopes that the shite doesn't continue through the weekend. Still mulling it over.


----------



## againsthegrain (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Looks like russia to the rescue for europe's gas problem too (lol at that, I bet the EU's absolutely seething) so the "crisis" might have been averted quite a bit.
> 
> No idea about how bad the virus is in russia but obviously not bad enough to shut their wells off so I guess that's good.
> 
> ...




the news headings this morning were that china is giving in and offloading our coal as they are too desperate for it,  whats next io?  well maybe not that quick with their developers jumping in wet cement... the ceos that is


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> the news headings this morning were that china is giving in and offloading our coal as they are too desperate for it,  whats next io?  well maybe not that quick with their developers jumping in wet cement... the ceos that is



Remember in the china thread when I was pointing out how much more leverage australia has than everyone thinks and everyone were laughing at me?


----------



## againsthegrain (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Remember in the china thread when I was pointing out how much more leverage australia has than everyone thinks and everyone were laughing at me?



Yep I do,  and I did agree with it, also we had some arguments with that other psycho about it on the china threads too... the sleeping dragon was really a teddy bear


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> Yep I do,  and I did agree with it, also we had some arguments with that other psycho about it on the china threads too... the sleeping dragon was really a teddy bear



Paper tiger  


(As an aside, never listen to anything kevin rudd ever says about china. He's a source of widespread ridicule among people who actually know what they're talking about)


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Also, september jobs numbers due tomorrow (I'd totally forgotten). If those numbers are good, markets will run and keep running. There was also talk of releasing some of the strategic petroleum reserve: https://www.reuters.com/business/en...erve-possible-tool-calm-prices-ft-2021-10-06/ 

So the powers that be and more importantly, the markets, obviously think that said reserve is actually deliverable/isn't going to be stopped in its tracks by the virus, which is also a very good sign, otherwise it would be a totally empty threat. 

So russia to the rescue in europe, strategic reserve release in USA, and OPEC (mostly the saudi's but who cares who) opening the taps by another 400k barrels/day. All GOOD. (very good) 


So here's your gamble: Will the jobs numbers tomorrow also be good? Estimates are of +500k. If they are, the bull market is back in session. 

Futures are well into the green as of 2.3 hours before market open so markets clearly think they're going to be. 


Hmm. Might be time for a couple of rebuys.


----------



## wayneL (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Hmm. Might be time for a couple of rebuys.



I'm standing by my Carillon Effect thesis.... Ie market to go higher.... But I am staying out of the stock market... 


It's the most likely thing, apart from debt (same,same, really), which is likely to blow the hell up when I'm not looking... Trying to figure out this wood fired pizza oven... Daydreaming about nubile young things and such like, haha.

I'm trying to figure out assets that aren't marked-to-market so at least I don't know how much money I've lost when everything blows up.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

wayneL said:


> I'm standing by my Carillon Effect thesis.... Ie market to go higher.... But I am staying out of the stock market...
> 
> 
> It's the most likely thing, apart from debt (same,same, really), which is likely to blow the hell up when I'm not looking... Trying to figure out this wood fired pizza oven... Daydreaming about nubile young things and such like, haha.
> ...



Yes but that would be responsible and I'll have none of that around here.


----------



## wayneL (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Yes but that would be responsible and I'll have none of that around here.



I'm thinking:

Physical Gold/silver... It's shiny and I can look at it every day while ignoring spot price

PPOR... At least I can raise chooks and grow veggies, and have some place to ride the useless nags around.

My Defender 90... It's a heap of crap, but I have at least been offered double what I paid for it... Sometimes hard asset prices are completely irrational (that is if we can truly call a vehicle a hard asset)

Race horses... Yeah I know, tenuous at best.. but a bit of a lottery ticket. Who knows we may  score at 1,000,000/1 and end up with a Winx.

A year's supply of non perishables and the backroom chockers full of toilet paper... Possibly my best investment, LMAO


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Don't forget an apocalypse house somewhere safe like tasmania or new zealand with a nuclear bunker and a year's supply of non-perishable food.


----------



## againsthegrain (7 October 2021)

you will need guns and a sex robot to be fully sufficient and safe


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 October 2021)

over9k said:


> So russia to the rescue in europe, strategic reserve release in USA, and OPEC (mostly the saudi's but who cares who) opening the taps by another 400k barrels/day. All GOOD. (very good)




Good for markets in the short term agreed.

Looking forward though, I'll reserve my judgement. Reasons being:

Gas - On one hand Russia increasing supply should lower the price. On the other hand, the EU has just very visibly confirmed its' dependency on Russia and thus Russia's pricing power. Plus there's the physical question of whether the added volume will be sufficient to meet demand or not, something that depends heavily on the weather due to its influence on consumption.

OIl - OPEC promises 400,000 barrels per day. That's only circa 0.4% of global consumption though so depending on weather, economic activity and so on it may or may not make much difference.

In saying that I'm thinking longer term, months and next year, not what the market does next week etc.


----------



## over9k (7 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Good for markets in the short term agreed.
> 
> Looking forward though, I'll reserve my judgement. Reasons being:
> 
> ...



Agreed, but, I'd like to think that things will be back to some kind of relative normality once the virus stuff is in the rear vision mirror.

As I've mentioned many times, it's a supply side issue, there hasn't been some kind of massive spike in demand, so fix the supply (get the people that produce, transport etc etc vaccinated and working again) the energy and the problem is solved.


Germany has LONG been reliant on stuff produced to its east. There was quite a large war over it I believe.

But with germany's population in terminal decline:




And russia flat broke, hopefully a lower demand from germany (and all of europe) and a russia desperate to sell anything it can will finally mean that this particular apple cart might actually have some kind of hope for once.

Nord stream 2 just got approved & everything.


----------



## over9k (8 October 2021)

Screaming open. EVERYTHING in the green an hour in. Even energy & banks still pulling, though the "least good".

Tomorrow will be telling. Sentiment's shifted a lot though so things are good at the moment. As long as the jobs report doesn't drop a nuclear bomb on the markets it's back to the moon. I've bought back in with a bit, sold TQQQ at 144 a good couple of weeks ago and then DPST yesterday at 245 & rebought TQQQ with my banks & energy gains at 131 today so a nice swing play.

We can obviously expect this jobs report to f**k me tomorrow now.


(Debt ceiling also raised but that was always going to happen)


----------



## dyna (8 October 2021)

over9k said:


> with germany's population in terminal decline:



That will do them in, in the end. China's chart is that bad, too... Getting off topic.
10years ago, Merkel and Co. decided to rid the country of its nuclear power by next year,2022.
20 years ago about a 1/3 rd of Germany's power was nuclear generated. All of that was supposed to be replaced by wind, solar, hydro and natural gas, which is now found to be not enough.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 October 2021)

dyna said:


> 20 years ago about a 1/3 rd of Germany's power was nuclear generated. All of that was supposed to be replaced by wind, solar, hydro and natural gas, which is now found to be not enough.



I'll avoid politics and simply say that from a purely technical perspective, any energy source can work reliably if it's designed and built to do so and likewise they all fail if under built relative to demand.

People often take the issue far too "religiously" - they all work if done well and they all fail if done poorly.


----------



## over9k (8 October 2021)

Oh dear.


----------



## over9k (8 October 2021)

And futures are straight back into the green and bonds have plummeted like nobody's business. 

Amazing.


----------



## sptrawler (9 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'll avoid politics and simply say that from a purely technical perspective, any energy source can work reliably if it's designed and built to do so and likewise they all fail if under built relative to demand.
> 
> People often take the issue far too "religiously" - they all work if done well and they all fail if done poorly.



All that has happened, is Russia has shown the EU, who's your daddy


----------



## over9k (9 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> All that has happened, is Russia has shown the EU, who's your daddy



It's more of a case of the EU giving itself a set of concrete boots with all this leftist idiocy. 

There's very few places on earth where "green" energy actually works. Germany isn't one of them.


----------



## over9k (9 October 2021)

Also, not sure if anyone else is holding any bank/energy plays but they seem to be at damn near nosebleed territory now. Historically speaking, I've noticed that feeling to be a pretty good indicator to sell.


----------



## dyna (9 October 2021)

WPL up 25 % in a month. I'll keep holding though. The US S&P Energy 500 index is up 45 %, while our index is up by just just 11 %.
Could be a fair while before gas ( and oil for that matter) goes the way of the dodo.


----------



## over9k (9 October 2021)

dyna said:


> WPL up 25 % in a month. I'll keep holding though. The US S&P Energy 500 index is up 45 %, while our index is up by just just 11 %.
> *Could be a fair while before gas ( and oil for that matter) goes the way of the dodo.*



Yes, the smartest money has known this for a very long time. 

The really big one is coal (and to a lesser extent, uranium)


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Yes, the smartest money has known this for a very long time.



Energy transitions by their very nature take a very long time.

It's one of the few industries where you can today discuss 2030 and politely correct anyone who suggests that's "long term". To someone investing their money in shares it might be fairly considered a long term but to anyone looking at the physical side 9 years is nothing when you're dealing with assets that have a lifecycle measured in decades or even centuries. 

Coal, oil and gas aren't going away tomorrow.

As for nuclear that depends on governments.....


----------



## over9k (9 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Energy transitions by their very nature take a very long time.
> 
> It's one of the few industries where you can today discuss 2030 and politely correct anyone who suggests that's "long term". To someone investing their money in shares it might be fairly considered a long term but to anyone looking at the physical side 9 years is nothing when you're dealing with assets that have a lifecycle measured in decades or even centuries.
> 
> ...



There's a fantastic documentary called "pump" that you can find here:  

And there's a lot to take in from it but the big one is when they interview the former head of shell. He reckons it'll take us about 3-4 decades to actually get off oil.


----------



## moXJO (10 October 2021)

To follow on from the timber shortage we now have an insulation shortage. Namely 50mm anticon that goes under roof sheets that was brought to my attention. This can put projects back a lot as the roof is done once the frame is up.


----------



## over9k (11 October 2021)

Oil now over 80/barrel. Not the kind of thing that gets fixed in a few days either. 

Very ugly winter ahead.


----------



## over9k (11 October 2021)

Here's the past 3 weeks in a nutshell:




Raising rates isn't going to do anything because things like heating aren't exactly something you can go without. Hence the massive inelasticity of heating energy (power), oil etc.

Cranking rates would simply cause stagflation and the central banks have as good as confirmed it by now, hence markets plummeting because there really is *nothing* they can do about this. The ONLY solution is a supply increase which is not a simple/easy/quick thing to do at the moment.


In summary: More shite ahead.


----------



## over9k (12 October 2021)

over9k said:


> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...reak-not-slowing-down-despite-6-week-lockdown
> 
> "Sydney cases not slowing despite 6 week lockdown"
> 
> ...



So it seems that clock's time expired yesterday:



"Cases will rise, hospitalisations will rise, but we just can't stay in lockdown any longer". 

 Told you.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2021)

over9k said:


> The ONLY solution is a supply increase which is not a simple/easy/quick thing to do at the moment.



Adding to that, the time varies considerably.

Bringing an existing drilled but uncompleted oil or gas well into production where supporting infrastructure (pipelines etc) already exists is pretty quick.

Putting a coal mine that's been on care and maintenance back into production or recommissioning a power station that's been sitting idle can be done in a few months normally or somewhat faster if there's a real panic to get it going.

But at the other extreme, well to go and discover a new oil field and bring it into any serious level of production or to build a major nuclear power station from scratch, well depending on location that can easily end up taking more than a decade.

With that in mind I note two things:

First is the rig count in the US which is back up to 532 from the latest data I can find online. That's about half the level of 2018 but more than double the low point in 2020. So it's heading in the right direction but still a long way short of running flat out.

Second is that the number of drilled uncompleted (DUC) wells is coming down quite sharply. So in short, the low hanging fruit is being picked to get production happening quickly but ultimately that's unsustainable, you can't keep completing more than you're drilling forever. See here: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49456

Same could be said for most places. There's some movement, some things are happening, but it's fairly modest and there's no stampede thus far.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2021)

More inflation coming through, this time food:









						Kraft Heinz says people must get used to higher food prices
					

The boss of the food giant says rising prices are partly due to pandemic disruption.



					www.bbc.com
				






> *People will have to get used to higher food prices, the boss of Kraft Heinz has told the BBC.*




Note that it says "will have to get used to it" which implies it's not "transitory". 

I expect most other inflation will likewise not be transitory. Once the prices are up, they won't go back down no matter what the central banks tell us.


----------



## over9k (12 October 2021)

Also, check this out: 




Not sure if I'd call crypto movements an economic consequence but if crypto moves on inflation and the virus causes inflation, here's another hedge for you. 

Note the different scales on the left vs right side of the graph. Bitcoin is basically just the high beta option. The correlation is actually quite astounding.


----------



## qldfrog (12 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Adding to that, the time varies considerably.
> 
> Bringing an existing drilled but uncompleted oil or gas well into production where supporting infrastructure (pipelines etc) already exists is pretty quick.
> 
> ...



And in many cases, restarting a well, a stopped mine now flooded, an oil rig now static is not always possible quickly especially as we are in a supply crisis with chips in shortage which could prevent buying just one critical element


----------



## qldfrog (12 October 2021)

We all know of used car prices jumping higher and delays in getting new cars..inflation pushed that wayall that because of chip IC shortage.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/40458...ked-at-kentucky-speedway-due-to-chip-shortage
And that is *before* China invading Taiwan...there was no earthquake..tsunami and no, it is not the WFH people buying new computer for new tax deduction and zoom conferences who stop the line of car computer chips
Definitively worth considering a Reset..what else?
Taiwan was greatly unaffected by covid and overall demand for chip did NOT surge vs previous years.we are really being manipulated in my opinion.but when ICs are used everywhere..food energy transport production, expect the worst in consequences and of course price jump for what is available..new or used


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> And in many cases, restarting a well, a stopped mine now flooded, an oil rig now static is not always possible quickly especially as we are in a supply crisis with chips in shortage which could prevent buying just one critical element



A lot will also depend on who owns it.

As I suspect you're aware, if something's not in current use then it tends to take one of two paths.

Either there's a conscious effort by the owner to maintain it or, alternatively, it very rapidly ends up in non-working condition for one reason or another.

Keeping something ready to run isn't free and if it's not running, if there's zero income from it, well in practice it may be let go.


----------



## over9k (12 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> More inflation coming through, this time food:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah there was a great peter schiff interview with precisely this. He basically said that he didn't see used cars dropping in price because new cards are now going to be so much more expensive. If used is a percentage of new and new is higher, there's your inflation even in the used market. 

I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?


----------



## moXJO (12 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Yeah there was a great peter schiff interview with precisely this. He basically said that he didn't see used cars dropping in price because new cards are now going to be so much more expensive. If used is a percentage of new and new is higher, there's your inflation even in the used market.
> 
> I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?



Makes sense


----------



## wayneL (12 October 2021)

moXJO said:


> Makes sense



It's a bit of a special case, but I bought Landrover 90, 18 months ago for 25k and have been offered 50k for it this year. Done nothing to it 'cept normal maintenance.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 October 2021)

over9k said:


> I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?



It definitely sounds like something relevant to the discussion.

My basic thought on inflation though is that it's seeping in all around. Cars, houses etc are obvious but then there's things like food and groceries, fuel and so on too. 

Last summer diesel was 135.9 cents per litre. It's now 158.9 cents at the same service station. That's just one very obvious example. Exactly the same product, purchased at the same place, now costs 16.9% more.

The nearest supermarket hasn't increased the price of bakery items or meat but they've drastically reduced the end of day discounts. So no change for most customers but it's a big jump for anyone who's really trying to save $ and who'll go in just before closing to buy bread or a chicken or whatever. 

Then there's product quality. As my cat has drawn to my attention, what was decent food with visible pieces of fish is now not something she wants to eat and, to be fair, I wouldn't want to eat it either. Whatever's in it sure doesn't look or smell like fish to me. And so I now buy a different brand that costs more. In some ways that's not inflation but it the price is unchanged but quality drops to the point of having to change brand then arguably it is.


----------



## over9k (13 October 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> It definitely sounds like something relevant to the discussion.
> 
> My basic thought on inflation though is that it's seeping in all around. Cars, houses etc are obvious but then there's things like food and groceries, fuel and so on too.
> 
> ...



Again, it's all supply-side. Australia (and america) is largely self-reliant on food and lockdowns have A: largely been confined to the cities and B: still don't stop farmers getting up and farming on their, you know, farms. 

So the supply of things like food has remained, but when we look at things we import from overseas, it's a sh!tshow. 

Simple example: 

*"Vietnam factory closures delaying US inventory replenishment"*

https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/v...ying-us-inventory-replenishment_20210924.html 

*"Vietnam closures push retailers to shift tactics, suppliers ahead of the holidays"*

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/retailers-shift-tactics-suppliers-Vietnam-lockdowns/606363/ 

*"Vietnam’s Factory Shutdowns Tug at Apparel Industry’s Seams"*

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vietnams-factory-shutdowns-tug-at-apparel-industrys-seams-11630661403 

*"Covid-19 Factory Closures Prompt Some U.S. Businesses to Rethink Vietnam"*

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...-u-s-businesses-to-rethinkvietnam-11633014618 
*
"Companies scramble to shift manufacturing out of Covid-crushed Vietnam in time for holidays"*

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/com...ut-of-covid-crushed-vietnam-for-holidays.html 


And then you get the omnipresent microchip shortage playing merry hell with everything... 


Again, this is ALL supply side. All of it. And this is before even thinking about the shortage of people working at the ports or driving trucks or whatever. 

So yeah, no virus and self production = no problem. Anything else = problem.


----------



## qldfrog (13 October 2021)

Inflation: US https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...d-make-you-money-morning-brief-091043620.html


----------



## moXJO (13 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Again, it's all supply-side. Australia (and america) is largely self-reliant on food and lockdowns have A: largely been confined to the cities and B: still don't stop farmers getting up and farming on their, you know, farms.
> 
> So the supply of things like food has remained, but when we look at things we import from overseas, it's a sh!tshow.
> 
> ...



In the case of farmers, they can't get enough workers to pick crops. Knock on effects of lockdowns.
Building materials are also having supply side issues and huge price increases


----------



## over9k (13 October 2021)

moXJO said:


> In the case of farmers, they can't get enough workers to pick crops. Knock on effects of lockdowns.
> Building materials are also having supply side issues and huge price increases



Months ago, yes. Even meatworks were having to close and so there was I think a pig-derived product shortage. But that's long since passed:


----------



## over9k (15 October 2021)

PPI in way below expected, markets have screamed in response. 

But, it's friday tomorrow, so tomorrow will be telling.


----------



## wayneL (15 October 2021)

I've just been to my client who is in the HR department of a publicly listed mining plant and equipment company.

They had just completed a survey to see how many of their staff are vaccinated, who intends to be vaccinated and who doesn't intend to be vaccinated.

Of all the office staff 20% intend to remain unvaccinated for the foreseeable future. However of the on site staff, 50% intend to remain unvaccinated and will forfeit their job to remain so.

I didn't ask how many staff there were publicly listed company so I assume a reasonable sample size.

I put it in this thread because I assume that it must be reasonably representative of many companies, with the obvious economic consequences


----------



## over9k (15 October 2021)

And oil just cracked 85USD/barrel. Oooh boy.


----------



## over9k (17 October 2021)

Little update to my positions. Grabbed a tiny bit more LNAS now it's broken inflation correlation. Mostly still just watching my crypto moon.


----------



## wayneL (17 October 2021)

The more I consider the situation of already breaking supply chains, and now the cluster f*** in the job market due to vaccine mandates, bonds possibly swooning and potentially jumping off a cliff (the China RE market being up the their @rse in alligators), the more I am getting very concerned about a cascading default sh¹tshow.

I'm especially petrified is I have a ton in cash at the moment as we are trying to rejig our whole financial position to be more risk averse. (Which can sometimes be unwittingly chockers full of bloody risk anyway).


----------



## over9k (17 October 2021)

wayneL said:


> The more I consider the situation of already breaking supply chains, and now the cluster f*** in the job market due to vaccine mandates, bonds possibly swooning and potentially jumping off a cliff (the China RE market being up the their @rse in alligators), the more I am getting very concerned about a cascading default sh¹tshow.
> 
> I'm especially petrified is I have a ton in cash at the moment as we are trying to rejig our whole financial position to be more risk averse. (Which can sometimes be unwittingly chockers full of bloody risk anyway).



If you think the proverbial is going to hit the fan then the USD is still overwhelmingly the flight to safety play


----------



## over9k (18 October 2021)

This has always been the dream, and now, it might actually be a reality. The fastest house price increases have been in rural areas for a reason


----------



## qldfrog (19 October 2021)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...et-paper-coffee-chicken-hard-find/8455259002/
Empty shelves in the US for the Holiday seasons...


----------



## over9k (19 October 2021)

Excellent inflation data so a massive bond selloff, tech thus ran hard and crypto etc dropped. 

I even flogged some bitcoin on the weekend as those exchanges run 24/7 so looks like a bit of serendipity for a change.


----------



## PetEarwig (19 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...et-paper-coffee-chicken-hard-find/8455259002/
> Empty shelves in the US for the Holiday seasons...



Hi, Iv'e been in the US the past 6 months waiting to get back to Australia when it seems reasonable. Lots of products are hit and miss. If you need something and are unsure how much you need, best to take more and return later. Basic products just not available for weeks on end. Its real random though.


----------



## dyna (19 October 2021)

Yeah, even President Joe Biden had the wind up over supply chain bottlenecks, threatening Christmas shopping, in his Whitehouse speech , yesterday.


----------



## over9k (20 October 2021)

I made a post a while back showing how anything inflation linked has been the play to run and, well:


----------



## moXJO (20 October 2021)

Ok so shipping containers are a fortune to ship right now. The other problem (that  I was told) is that you can't rent containers, you have to buy them  due to a shortage.

A lot of products are just not worth shipping so be ready for  more shortages or price increases.


----------



## qldfrog (20 October 2021)

moXJO said:


> Ok so shipping containers are a fortune to ship right now. The other problem (that  I was told) is that you can't rent containers, you have to buy them  due to a shortage.
> 
> A lot of products are just not worth shipping so be ready for  more shortages or price increases.



Yes and grand designs using shipping containers are luxury nowadays


----------



## moXJO (20 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Months ago, yes. Even meatworks were having to close and so there was I think a pig-derived product shortage. But that's long since passed:
> 
> View attachment 131472



They were having trouble getting the harvesters across borders (following the wheat belt) with all the restrictions . Apparently it was a bumper crop this season.


----------



## wayneL (21 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Yes and grand designs using shipping containers are luxury nowadays



Got an associate doing a shipping container home atm... I was skeptical, but it's coming out quite nicely.

Being my Landrover mechanic, I reckon I've paid for at least half of it  LOL


----------



## over9k (21 October 2021)

Bitcoin now at new all time high, because inflation now at new all time high (since bitcoin has existed anyway).

With nasdaq futures in the red, we might have another swing play moment tonight.


----------



## wayneL (21 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Bitcoin now at new all time high, because inflation now at new all time high (since bitcoin has existed anyway).



That moment when you kick yourself for not listening to your gut and buying more on the dip.


----------



## over9k (21 October 2021)

wayneL said:


> That moment when you kick yourself for not listening to your gut and buying more on the dip.



Run swing plays. Even if you miss one side you can at least get the other. I flogged some coin on the weekend, probably going to buy some tech tonight.


----------



## wayneL (21 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Run swing plays. Even if you miss one side you can at least get the other. I flogged some coin on the weekend, probably going to buy some tech tonight.



Well, I usually do swing plays, but business is insanely busy.... 

Work-Lif... err, trading balance is all out of whack ATM....(what life? )


----------



## over9k (23 October 2021)

wayneL said:


> Well, I usually do swing plays, but business is insanely busy....
> 
> Work-Lif... err, trading balance is all out of whack ATM....(what life? )



Today was a ripper, bought & sold right on close & everything:


----------



## moXJO (24 October 2021)

Shops don't stay open as long as they did. Even the barbers are leaving after half a day. Nothing really open on Sundays.


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2021)

moXJO said:


> Shops don't stay open as long as they did. Even the barbers are leaving after half a day. Nothing really open on Sundays.



Mate who works for the council, says they can't get workers, even flexistaff can't supply laborers and drivers.  
He said in all earnest that he can get me a job, he is 66 in Dec, I'm 66 this week.


----------



## over9k (25 October 2021)

moXJO said:


> Shops don't stay open as long as they did. Even the barbers are leaving after half a day. Nothing really open on Sundays.



Yeah, I can remember seeing on the news how the guest/customer limits in places are still effective closures as a lot of businesses simply won't make a profit opening at 50% or whatever.


----------



## wabullfrog (25 October 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Mate who works for the council, says they can't get workers, even flexistaff can't supply laborers and drivers.
> He said in all earnest that he can get me a job, he is 66 in Dec, I'm 66 this week.




Truck drivers especially road train sizes are really hard to find, hardly any under 50 that I see. Was an issue Pre Covid will be a bigger issue post.


----------



## over9k (26 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Today was a ripper, bought & sold right on close & everything:
> 
> View attachment 131822



@wayneL And the literal next day:


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 October 2021)

I hear from installers that the price of solar panels and related equipment is now rising due to the various supply chain issues.

Notable given there's been a downtrend in prices for as long as the industry's existed at any significant scale, so it's effectively the first ever price rise.

Just posting it as another bit of data.


----------



## over9k (26 October 2021)

Yep, I got a quote for a big solar install for my bitcoin mining and the prices were increased about a month later. This is happening with almost everything.


----------



## moXJO (26 October 2021)

Still no timber. Apparently 10 sticks per builder. A few job sites have been empty for a while.


----------



## frugal.rock (27 October 2021)

Was at my local farming co-op shop last Saturday.
Overheard no fertiliser in stock, delivery expected "8 weeks" away.


----------



## qldfrog (27 October 2021)

Consequence or purpose achieved?
Whether you "believe" or not in the Reset,it is here.
 Some people seems to believe in Covid as the new plague but argue that the World Economic Forum and yearly Davos meetings are fairytales,strange time.
Food shortages are just a matter of time.


----------



## frugal.rock (27 October 2021)

I'm wondering if you @over9k might do a short executive summary of "everything"?
I'm scratching my head about market direction at the moment.

Have to say, this pandemic business has wreaked havoc trying to raise two young (female) kids...aye carumba.


----------



## wayneL (27 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Consequence or purpose achieved?
> Whether you "believe" or not in the Reset,it is here.
> Some people seems to believe in Covid as the new plague but argue that the World Economic Forum and yearly Davos meetings are fairytales,strange time.
> Food shortages are just a matter of time.



I can't believe how people still think Davos etc are conspiracy theories..... when they have come right out in the open and told us this is what they were going to do, in advance


----------



## over9k (27 October 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm wondering if you @over9k might do a short executive summary of "everything"?
> I'm scratching my head about market direction at the moment.
> 
> Have to say, this pandemic business has wreaked havoc trying to raise two young (female) kids...aye carumba.



Over what timeframe? You mean just lately or???

Lately, everything got pounded due to inflation fears and then there was a mass passing-on of all costs. Just look at shipping prices as an example - all the stevedores, truck drivers etc etc are working around the clock on huge penalty rates so on and so forth which would normally cut margins/profits significantly, but if you just jack up the price of shipping commensurately, you continue to rake in the cash.

Take and apply en masse with energy, interest rates etc etc.

It's also providing beautiful swing plays every time sentiment changes as the banks and/or energy run and tech plummets or vice-versa. To state the bleeding obvious, I'm only doing these on days where BOTH sides move.

Aside from that, as I showed before, your best inflation hedge is crypto. Bitcoin's up what, 40% in a bit over a month? The correlation with the US10Y is amazing.


There's now even bitcoin etf's you can buy options for like a total degenerate


----------



## over9k (27 October 2021)

over9k said:


> View attachment 131644
> 
> 
> This has always been the dream, and now, it might actually be a reality. The fastest house price increases have been in rural areas for a reason



Follow-up on this: 

I just got a quote to install fibre internet to my place. 16 grand. F**k me lol.


----------



## againsthegrain (27 October 2021)

over9k said:


> Follow-up on this:
> 
> I just got a quote to install fibre internet to my place. 16 grand. F**k me lol.




Sounds like a bargain, snap it up quick 😂


----------



## againsthegrain (27 October 2021)

On the topic, 2 observations

1. spoke to my 22 yo niece today,  she said alot of people her age including friends, don't want to go back to work. Free money is better then earned money

2. Thought it was me but other people also have noticed the overall quality along with quantity has and is decreasing. Simple things such as sticky tape, staples, rubber bands or glad wrap bags fail and break alot easier as of late.  Less quality/materials in production?


----------



## wayneL (27 October 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> On the topic, 2 observations
> 
> 1. spoke to my 22 yo niece today,  she said alot of people her age including friends, don't want to go back to work. Free money is better then earned money
> 
> ...



Very apt image.


----------



## over9k (28 October 2021)

@wayneL @frugal.rock And another:




Looks like my weekend flogging of some bitcoin was pretty sweet timing (for a change).


----------



## over9k (28 October 2021)

Nahhh... You think? 


I wonder what tipped her off.


----------



## over9k (29 October 2021)

And another....





BTU been a bit of a falling knife the last few days but it went absurd with gas & coal prices so we'll see.


----------



## over9k (29 October 2021)

On the cusp you say? 

Well: 





It's almost as if printing money has a consequence. 

But don't worry, if it was only house prices and not the CPI surging, we'd just keep going on our merry way...


----------



## over9k (3 November 2021)

over9k said:


> And another....
> 
> View attachment 132072
> 
> ...



The day after: 




And the day after that: 




And here's the broader market as a whole over the last month vs BTU, just for some context: 




So still plenty of money to bank through just buying & holding. The printing presses haven't stopped.


----------



## over9k (3 November 2021)

However, check out bitcoin over the last month vs SPXL: 




As you can see, bitcoin has run almost 1.5x as much as the triple levered S&P500 ETF, or some 4.5x as much as the rest of the market. 


Big tech has also been the other place to be over the last month, which if you'd bought FNGU to triple lever into would have beaten even bitcoin: 





However, when we run things out to the 3 month point: 




We can see it is _energy _and _crypto _that have been the plays to be in right up until only about a week ago. 


So if you'd moved into energy and crypto like I mentioned I had and are staring at the 1 month graph kicking yourself, don't be. On a longer timeline you're head & shoulders ahead of the old plays. 

But remember, they've been catching up, so hopefully you grabbed a small amount of tech (I posted when I did it earlier in the thread) in anticipation, and can see how things have been moving lately. I've been posting some of my plays in this thread and will continue to do so. 

I'm still very overweight crypto


----------



## over9k (3 November 2021)

And as if on cue:


----------



## over9k (4 November 2021)

over9k said:


> The day after:
> 
> View attachment 132265
> 
> ...



Make that four in a row now: 




See this trading stuff is easy. Buy when red, sell when green. 25% in four days.


----------



## over9k (4 November 2021)

Right so I finally have some actual news/analysis that is not the normal inflation or not SNAFU: 



 chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fir.eia.gov%2Fwpsr%2Fwpsrsummary.pdf&clen=61248&chunk=true

U.S.  commercial crude  oil inventories  (excluding  those  in  the  Strategic Petroleum  Reserve) increased by  3.3  million  barrels  from  the previous  week. At  434.1  million  barrels, U.S. crude  oil inventories  are  about 6% below  the  five  year average  for this  time  of  year.  Total motor gasoline inventories  decreased by 1.5  million  barrels last  week  and  are about  3%  below  the five year average  for  this  time  of year. 

So actual fuel inventories dropped whilst crude inventories bounced. So in other words, the crude taps have been opened, but there's still the problem of refining it. 

To state the bleeding obvious, the hands-on guys that do the refining are the more vaccine-averse types, so this problem may continue for quite some time. 

This is the exact same problem shipping is having - the product is arriving, but there's not enough people to get it to the end consumer. Watch this space to see if we end up with oil tankers sitting at anchor again. If the saudi's et al overestimate the refining capabilities at the other end, we're going to see storage tanks brimmed and thus tankers sitting at anchor desperate to unload once again. 

If that happens, I see no reason why the oil price won't plummet just like it did last time as they practically give it away in order to get it off the ships. Last year, big tankers were costing 250k a DAY.  



So all depends on whether OPEC et al overestimate the demand increase rate or not. Current storage levels are at about 450 million barrels and last I checked they have 700 million worth of storage room before everything is full. 

Watch this space.


----------



## over9k (4 November 2021)

Tapering announced. 15 billion a month is going. Markets have obviously moved. Good signs all round.


----------



## sptrawler (4 November 2021)

Well a good thing to come out of the pandemic, farm workers to get a minimum wage, that is great now we wont have to import seasonal workers and use up back packers. There will be a rush from our long term unemployed, to pick up the jobs.
I think it is great news, farmers should be able to pay sensible wages, if they have a sensible business. 
If they can't, maybe they should find another business.









						Fruit-picking pay win could put Australians back to work on farms
					

The Australian Workers Union says the decision to create a minimum pay floor of $25 an hour for fruit-picking is its most significant victory in 135 years.




					www.smh.com.au
				



From the article:
The Australia Workers Union is claiming a historic victory over the farm lobby after the Fair Work Commission ordered every farm worker in the country is entitled the minimum casual pay rate of $25.41 per hour.


----------



## qldfrog (4 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> There will be a rush from our long term unemployed, to pick up the jobs



Mr @sptrawler , this post shows clearly a generation gap😉
In the new world, with universal income, perpetual QE, welfare for all and tax the Rich as a rule, who the hell is going to go in the outdoor, freezing cold, dripping wet or burning hot for $26 an hour and then be taxed and lose welfare when you can get the same financialoutcome, playing video games and the latest incarnation of phone game apps,  while smoking some good herbal stuff.
It is good new for the existing hard working guys already sweating at the farm but do not expect a rush.
Today at aldi, tomatoos are $7 a kg nearly twice the price of chicken, and many shelves are empty.
No almond yesterday at coles no yoghurt today at ALDI, etc etc same issue last week...
Basically had to go thru 2 big retailers to fill the shopping list
Yes the supply chain is being strained...


----------



## againsthegrain (4 November 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Mr @sptrawler , this post shows clearly a generation gap😉
> In the new world, with universal income, perpetual QE, welfare for all and tax the Rich as a rule, who the hell is going to go in the outdoor, freezing cold, dripping wet or burning hot for $26 an hour and then be taxed and lose welfare when you can get the same financialoutcome, playing video games and the latest incarnation of phone game apps,  while smoking some good herbal stuff.
> It is good new for the existing hard working guys already sweating at the farm but do not expect a rush.
> Today at aldi, tomatoos are $7 a kg nearly twice the price of chicken, and many shelves are empty.
> ...




To be fair when houses are 1m, min wage is not much motivation to go out and break your back for all the gen Z

much easier to collect ubi live with mum and buy crypto


----------



## over9k (4 November 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> To be fair when houses are 1m, min wage is not much motivation to go out and break your back for all the gen Z
> 
> much easier to collect ubi live with mum and buy crypto



I'm so glad you said gen Z then >_>


----------



## againsthegrain (4 November 2021)

over9k said:


> I'm so glad you said gen Z then >_>




had to distance myself from it too


----------



## wayneL (4 November 2021)

Still some folks with integrity.


----------



## over9k (5 November 2021)

Alright so we're exactly one month from the absolute bottom of the last dip and check things out since: 




As we can see, megacaps/tech and microcaps, so the barbell spread, was once again the winning play if you weren't running the swing plays (of which there were MANY). 

Hopefully this should surprise absolutely nobody because there hasn't been any kind of fundamental shift in how things have been operating - in fact, if anything, the data tells us that the problems like shipping choke points or the microchip shortage have actually gotten _more _pronounced, not less. 

It's still full steam ahead from here


----------



## over9k (8 November 2021)

Crypto is still your number 1 swing play with tech:


----------



## over9k (8 November 2021)

Ok so here's one for the new guys/econ students out there:

There's been a lot of talk about how airlines, cruise ships and so on have a tremendous amount of pent up demand and are going to see a huge rebound post-pandemic. This is true.

What there isn't a lot of talk about is the inverse - what products/services are going to fall off a cliff?

One of them is peloton, the exercise bike manufacturer. It just missed estimates hugely and plummeted over 35% in a single day:





Think about this logically - a lot of these things were only bought because people couldn't go to the gym or for a real road cycle or what have you. We know this because sales pre-pandemic were nothing like once the pandemic started. People have only bought these things to ride indoors because they've had no other choice. Lift the lockdowns, and they can actually engage in their preference again.

In short, the pandemic has had a huge spike in _substitute goods. _

Ergo, whilst things like airlines or cruise ships shoot up once lockdowns are lifted, all the substitute goods like peloton fall off a cliff. We can see this in the sales numbers that have sent the stock plummeting.

I've mentioned quite a bit about how things like furniture will see a big drop on account of a couch being a very infrequent purchase, but couches aren't really a substitute good. Peloton IS.



So the challenge now is to try & think "What other substitute goods have shot up in sales through the pandemic but are going to plummet now on account of them being substitutes?".

For bonus points, try to think of something tangible (i.e a physical good) like peloton bikes that people simply will not use again once lockdowns are over. Why? Because if people are never going to use them again, they will *sell *them, so we are very likely to see a HUGE flood of second hand peloton bikes hit the market now, only exacerbating peloton's problem further - you'll have both a huge drop in demand for new ones on account of second hand models being so cheap (so we're talking a substitute of a substitute now) and whatever hugely reduced number of new models sold will have to be sold at a huge discount (so lower margin) in order to convince prospective buyers to actually buy a new one vs getting a second hand model dirt cheap.

This has already happened over here in australia with gym products (squat racks, barbells, weights and so on) where the massive amounts of gear bought to set up home/garage gyms flooded the market the second lockdowns were lifted, but there are undoubtedly going to be other examples.

If you can think of another one, then it's probably an excellent stock to bet against, especially considering the fact that _nobody is talking about this  _


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 November 2021)

over9k said:


> If you can think of another one



Whilst just about everyone needs some sort of online device for personal use, there'd be a lot of people who've bought IT equipment or "proper" office furniture that they'll have zero ongoing need for if they don't continue doing paid work at home. That won't be everyone but there'd be some at least I'd expect.

At the other end of the spectrum is entertainment. They might not sell the hardware but if someone was going to buy a new TV or subscribe to whatever online streaming service then they'll have done it during the lockdowns. So I'm thinking reduced sales going forward and at least some subscriptions etc get cancelled now that people are back outside in the real world.

Funny you mention exercise bikes though. A couple of weeks ago was the first time in my life I've ever thought of buying one. No lockdowns but I'm not at all keen on riding real bikes on roads these days, far too dangerous for my liking, so I was thinking it might be good exercise.


----------



## over9k (8 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Whilst just about everyone needs some sort of online device for personal use, there'd be a lot of people who've bought IT equipment or "proper" office furniture that they'll have zero ongoing need for if they don't continue doing paid work at home. That won't be everyone but there'd be some at least I'd expect.
> 
> At the other end of the spectrum is entertainment. They might not sell the hardware but if someone was going to buy a new TV or subscribe to whatever online streaming service then they'll have done it during the lockdowns. So I'm thinking reduced sales going forward and at least some subscriptions etc get cancelled now that people are back outside in the real world.
> 
> *Funny you mention exercise bikes though. A couple of weeks ago was the first time in my life I've ever thought of buying one. No lockdowns but I'm not at all keen on riding real bikes on roads these days, far too dangerous for my liking, so I was thinking it might be good exercise.*



Quite a few people have managed to kit out home gyms for absolute peanuts buying all the gear that went on firesale once the lockdowns were lifted, so you might be able to score yourself a bargain 2nd hand


----------



## sptrawler (8 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Quite a few people have managed to kit out home gyms for absolute peanuts buying all the gear that went on firesale once the lockdowns were lifted, so you might be able to score yourself a bargain 2nd hand



Spot on 9k, exercise bikes and treadmills usually end up on gumtree, as a clothes dryer, or on the verge for the pickup.  

Central Australia tourism is feeling the pinch, I don't think it is due to the pandemic though. 
I think since people can't climb it, it just becomes a hell of a long way to go, to look at a rock.








						Tour operator forced to scale back business to Uluru
					

An outback travel company is halting their tours to Uluru over exceptionally low tourist numbers, staff shortages and the global pandemic.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Spot on 9k, exercise bikes and treadmills usually end up on gumtree, as a clothes dryer, or on the verge for the pickup.



Me being me, I'll probably end up connecting a generator to it.....  




sptrawler said:


> Central Australia tourism is feeling the pinch, I don't think it is due to the pandemic though.
> I think since people can't climb it, it just becomes a hell of a long way to go, to look at a rock.




In the specific case of Uluru they didn't want people going there and closed the walk up it so there was going to be a huge drop in visitors even without the pandemic. It was by far the most well known attraction in the entire region.


----------



## qldfrog (8 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Me being me, I'll probably end up connecting a generator to it.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I would rephrase:
"In the specific case of Uluru they didn't want people going there."
And they succeeded...


----------



## over9k (9 November 2021)

In case I hadn't already explained why peloton was not a "buy the dip" moment, it's down another 10% today: 




I also showed in a previous post how over the last month it has been big tech that's been the star of the show, sector wise, but check this out: 




That's 3x what even the triple levered ETF has run.


----------



## over9k (10 November 2021)

Russia to the rescue with gas, so gas is back in backwardation:




So companies like hallador have plummeted:




But they'd already been on a pretty serious melt anyways:




Might be a bit of an overcorrection but you'd have to be brave to buy now. It's a buy & flip, not a hold.


----------



## over9k (11 November 2021)

CPI numbers in. 6.2% year on year. Massacre expected in response. 

More swing plays will abound!


----------



## sptrawler (11 November 2021)

Due to lockdowns and people learning to live within their means, a new norm is developing.








						Worker drought: Job ads soar but no one’s applying
					

The power pendulum has clearly swung post-pandemic from employers towards employees - a recipe for wage inflation.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 November 2021)

over9k said:


> CPI numbers in. 6.2% year on year



One thing I've noticed isn't so much about price increases on a particular item at full retail price but it's more about the disappearance of cheaper options. Cheaper brands that have quietly disappeared, specials that aren't as deep a discount on the full price, things like that.

There's been more than one case lately where I've looked at a product and in short the cheapest option is to buy the big brand product in a physical shop. 

For example I very recently bought some shoes. I knew exactly what I wanted and looked online. Cheapest option? Well I bought them from a physical store which was the exact same one I'd have bought them from if I hadn't looked around. The nearest shop was the cheapest. Similar story with quite a few things I've checked lately. The cheapest option ended up being the brand name product bought locally.

For those who buy the cheapest, true inflation's a fair bit higher than the headline figure simply due to that drying up of cheaper options.

One exception though is paper. Toilet paper that is. It's being sold at a fire sale price at a local supermarket. I guess everyone's either bought a decade's supply or they can't afford food so don't need it anyway.


----------



## over9k (11 November 2021)

Altcoins like ether, litecoin etc are beating bitcoin, but bitcoin's still on an absolutely screaming run. 

Crypto's still your swing play with tech


----------



## over9k (11 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I've noticed isn't so much about price increases on a particular item at full retail price but it's more about the disappearance of cheaper options. Cheaper brands that have quietly disappeared, specials that aren't as deep a discount on the full price, things like that.
> 
> There's been more than one case lately where I've looked at a product and in short the cheapest option is to buy the big brand product in a physical shop.
> 
> ...



If the products have disappeared completely it might be more of a supply chain issue than inflation? 

Especially if they're the cheap goods sold on tiny margin. Spike shipping etc prices and the margin on said goods gets wiped out completely. Combine this with the shipping choke point problems and your volume goes as well, making your product completely unprofitable.


----------



## over9k (13 November 2021)

One trade all week: 




Inflation fears not gone. More news at 11. (not actually).


----------



## noirua (13 November 2021)

basilio said:


> *A look inside Wuhan quarantine ward for seriously ill*





Get Sharri Markson’s book ‘What Really Happened in Wuhan’ here: https://linktr.ee/WhatReallyHappenedI... This Sky News Australia special investigation into the origins of COVID-19 reveals what really happened in Wuhan in the early days of the pandemic. 

Award-winning journalist Sharri Markson spent more than a year investigating the potential leak of the virus from a top-secret laboratory in Wuhan. 
Ms Markson uncovered evidence of a widespread cover-up and unpacks the new theory that “patient zero” worked in the Wuhan lab. 
Sky News Australia anchor and Investigations Writer at The Australian, Sharri has been at the forefront of investigating the origins of COVID-19 since early in 2020 when the virus spread globally. 
Since that time, the precise genesis of COVID-19 has been hotly contested, with scientists, government officials, the World Health Organization, and the Chinese authorities releasing conflicting reports. 
In a coup for Australian television, Sharri secures the first sit-down interview for an Australian broadcast media outlet with Donald Trump since he was elected president in 2016. 
Sharri also speaks with a range of Chinese whistle-blowers, scientists, and high-ranking intelligence officials to bring us closer to discovering the truth of what happened in Wuhan. 
These include John Ratcliffe, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence from 2020 to 2021, and former head of British intelligence service, Mi6, Sir Richard Dearlove.



SHOW LESS


----------



## over9k (14 November 2021)

Just in case anyone's wondering why I'm such a bull on crypto long term.


----------



## rederob (14 November 2021)

noirua said:


> Get Sharri Markson’s book ‘What Really Happened in Wuhan’ here: https://linktr.ee/WhatReallyHappenedI... This Sky News Australia special investigation into the origins of COVID-19 reveals what really happened in Wuhan in the early days of the pandemic.
> 
> Award-winning journalist Sharri Markson spent more than a year investigating the potential leak of the virus from a top-secret laboratory in Wuhan.
> Ms Markson uncovered evidence of a widespread cover-up and unpacks the new theory that “patient zero” worked in the Wuhan lab.
> ...




I think it's sad that almost 2 years on someone as intellectually handicapped as Markson can make money out of a con.
Or is that a conspiracy.
Such are the economic implications of the outbreak.

The politicisation of covid continues to cost America thousands of lives every week.


----------



## over9k (16 November 2021)

Huge drop in crypto over the last day - excellent time for another swing play. 


Nothing else to report other than OPEC not wanting to open the oil taps so oil's gone from about 82 to 83 a barrel. Previous high was 86 iirc.


----------



## over9k (17 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Huge drop in crypto over the last day - excellent time for another swing play.
> 
> 
> Nothing else to report other than OPEC not wanting to open the oil taps so oil's gone from about 82 to 83 a barrel. Previous high was 86 iirc.


----------



## over9k (18 November 2021)

Biden's threatened to start releasing crude from the strategic petroleum reserve so oil's dropped (along with inflation fears on account of oil being just about the most primary input on the planet) so another nice swing play on the cards tonight lads. Nothing else to update otherwise.


----------



## sptrawler (19 November 2021)

People still not interested in working, post pandemic.








						Staff shortages at major retailers worsen ahead of Christmas
					

Staff shortages at some of Australia’s largest retailers could threaten trade over the festive season.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## over9k (19 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> People still not interested in working, post pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Nothing that can't be fixed by paying people more. 

Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.


----------



## againsthegrain (19 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Nothing that can't be fixed by paying people more.
> 
> Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.




I said this before but what will minimum wage get you?  Sleeping in your car and a cheap and nasty home brand feed from aldi that will burst your intestines before you retire. inflation inflation location location


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.



Another way of looking at it is the ability to keep inflation down by suppressing wages has run out. It seems that can can't be kicked any further, there's nothing left of it.


----------



## againsthegrain (19 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another way of looking at it is the ability to keep inflation down by suppressing wages has run out. It seems that can can't be kicked any further, there's nothing left of it.




The geniuses at rba think they can stretch it to 24


----------



## sptrawler (19 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Nothing that can't be fixed by paying people more.
> 
> Seems like employers have gotten used to paying minimum wage to desperate migrants that will work for anything and are now kicking up a stink about it.



I feel a phase of hyper inflation and aussie dollar deflation coming on. 🤣
The ducks are lining up for a Labor win.
The last thing the country needs, at this point in time, is a lot of industrial turmoil.


----------



## sptrawler (19 November 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> The geniuses at rba think they can stretch it to 24



The geniuses at the RBA are setting it up for a fall and a big one IMO.
This charge to renewables is going to require the maximum bang for bucks, the best way to get it is a recession.
Time will tell, but I would certainly be taking a cautious approach, at the moment.


----------



## over9k (20 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another way of looking at it is the ability to keep inflation down by suppressing wages has run out. It seems that can can't be kicked any further, there's nothing left of it.



Wait until the borders open. 

Australia's baby bust will be the new reason to bring them all in - "we need young people to do all the work" or some such drivel. The reason changes every time they lose the argument so that'll probably be the new one. 


This country's had a "skills shortage" for 20 years now. It's not going to "go away" any time soon.


----------



## againsthegrain (20 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Wait until the borders open.
> 
> Australia's baby bust will be the new reason to bring them all in - "we need young people to do all the work" or some such drivel. The reason changes every time they lose the argument so that'll probably be the new one.
> 
> ...




There are plans for 400k a year I read


----------



## frugal.rock (20 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> The geniuses at the RBA are setting it up for a fall and a big one IMO.



Conversely, "the big 4" do what they want. 
Shouldn't it be "the big 5" ?
Doesn't Maquarie come into it?

Increased costs? Up go rates.
Simple.
I would expect rates across the board to follow in dribs and drabs, once other lenders feel the pinch.









						CBA raises fixed rates - 2021
					

Select fixed rate home loans with the major bank have increased,  less than 24 hours after Westpac announced similar changes.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has revealed that,  as of last week




					www.theadviser.com.au


----------



## againsthegrain (20 November 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Conversely, "the big 4" do what they want.
> Shouldn't it be "the big 5" ?
> Doesn't Maquarie come into it?
> 
> ...




They caught all the fish in the nets (cheap mortgages)  now time to tighten the string, pull them out of the water and eat them


----------



## over9k (21 November 2021)

cross-post:







But you have to remember how these things are weighted in the (fudged) official CPI etc numbers. Think about how much energy is a primary input into even food production and energy has had a massive supply crunch. The good news is that oil wells etc are coming back online (this doesn't take 5 minutes) and just talk of releasing strategic reserves has dumped the oil price and thus everything else dramatically:





You have to remember that prices are pretty sticky/slow to react in this market because you can't just reopen an oil well and ship oil across the planet in five minutes, this is a process that takes weeks. Oil companies also obviously want to know there's going to be a market for their stuff before they ship it so they need some confidence in the oil price before they pull the metaphorical trigger.


Point is, this is, like everything else in the pandemic, far more a supply side issue than an interest rate one. Interest rates effect asset prices (p/e), commodity etc prices, not so much.


----------



## over9k (23 November 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> There are plans for 400k a year I read



Found it:

https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-needs-explosive-surge-of-2-million-migrants-20211011-p58z0n 

Two million over five years. Insanity.


----------



## againsthegrain (23 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Found it:
> 
> https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-needs-explosive-surge-of-2-million-migrants-20211011-p58z0n
> 
> Two million over five years. Insanity.




Read the first paragraph, got my whole article of bs worth right there. No need to read the rest


----------



## over9k (23 November 2021)

50 million barrels released of the yanks' strategic petroleum reserve. Futures have bounced.

The yanks have mountains of shale wells to get back online so this is just a stop-gap after opec refused to up production. So, all a supply side issue.

Edit: Looks like there's a coordinated release between non-opec countries - india's just released 5 million, more announcements to follow.


----------



## wayneL (24 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Found it:
> 
> https://www.afr.com/politics/australia-needs-explosive-surge-of-2-million-migrants-20211011-p58z0n
> 
> Two million over five years. Insanity.



Meanwhile, Australian non-partakers of the experimental mRNA  injection are prevented from traveling.


----------



## over9k (24 November 2021)

Lots of big increases in numbers across europe so lots of pretty hardcore lockdowns. Markets getting pounded as a result. Nothing surprising whatsoever.


----------



## over9k (24 November 2021)

over9k said:


> 50 million barrels released of the yanks' strategic petroleum reserve. Futures have bounced.
> 
> The yanks have mountains of shale wells to get back online so this is just a stop-gap after opec refused to up production. So, all a supply side issue.
> 
> Edit: Looks like there's a coordinated release between non-opec countries - india's just released 5 million, more announcements to follow.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 November 2021)

We're in interesting times as they say.

Releasing strategic oil stockpiles when there's supposedly no actual shortage and price is ~half of the 2008 peak looks like desperation on the inflation front to me.

Either that or the physical market is quite a lot tighter than anyone's admitting publicly and physical shortage is an actual risk.


----------



## qldfrog (24 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> We're in interesting times as they say.
> 
> Releasing strategic oil stockpiles when there's supposedly no actual shortage and price is ~half of the 2008 peak looks like desperation on the inflation front to me.
> 
> Either that or the physical market is quite a lot tighter than anyone's admitting publicly and physical shortage is an actual risk.



There is so much manipulation on commodities market: silver price crashes for 2 days yet it is nearly impossible to buy any silver metal right now.
I think oil market is the same, but harder to manipulate...there is actual shortage but financial tools via futures etc are so powerful they change the price tags


----------



## sptrawler (24 November 2021)

It looks as though the relocation of chip manufacturing is well underway.
Nov. 23, 2021, at 4:36 p.m. Samsung is planning to build *a $17 billion semiconductor factory outside of Austin, Texas*, amid a global shortage of chips used in phones, cars and other electronic devices.2 hours ago


----------



## over9k (25 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> We're in interesting times as they say.
> 
> Releasing strategic oil stockpiles when there's supposedly no actual shortage and price is ~half of the 2008 peak looks like desperation on the inflation front to me.
> 
> Either that or the physical market is quite a lot tighter than anyone's admitting publicly and physical shortage is an actual risk.






Society is only ever one missed meal away from a revolution. Fuel and food prices are basically the only things that are inflation suicide - houses, cars, stocks, basically everything else can go absolutely stratospheric and the public barely bats an eye.

But history shows us that lack of food is the one thing that gets very large portions of the population very violent very quickly.


Skyrocketing energy and food prices are literally the only price inflation that is actual political suicide and the powers that be know it. Hence the strategic reserves being tapped all across the world.

I have no doubt a very strong word has been quietly had with the onshore shale producers too.



The democrats' problem is that politically, they're in a bit of a jam - because they're trying to mandate vaccines and ban people from the workplace (or sack them) for not taking it but as it turns out, all the vaccine-averse types that don't want to take it are the ones that do all the critical things (like drive trucks or pump oil or grow food) that actually keep society functioning. 

If the republicans are smart, they'll make some serious political hay out of this.


----------



## wayneL (25 November 2021)

qldfrog said:


> There is so much manipulation on commodities market: silver price crashes for 2 days yet it is nearly impossible to buy any silver metal right now.
> I think oil market is the same, but harder to manipulate...there is actual shortage but financial tools via futures etc are so powerful they change the price tags




Yep.

One word..." J P Morgan"

Well that's sort of three words really, but you get my drift.


----------



## over9k (26 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Lots of big increases in numbers across europe so lots of pretty hardcore lockdowns. Markets getting pounded as a result. Nothing surprising whatsoever.



Winter wave now well & truly upon us:




I think I saw a headline showing germany cracking the 300k deaths mark or something like that too.

Numbers rising exponentially everywhere, this is exactly what we expected 12 months ago but markets didn't care then on account of all the vaccines getting announced late oct-early nov.

That was already priced in this time around so markets are obviously just taking the pounding they otherwise would have last time around.

This should be surprising absolutely nobody.


----------



## over9k (26 November 2021)

Oh and if things weren't bad enough, there's yet another variant that's been detected.

So we're basically living in groundhog day.



I even made a bet against energy around this time last year based on simple seasonality driving infections but markets obviously completely ignored the short term once the vaccines were announced so it never worked out.

This time around, a lot of refusals to take the vaccines etc have been the proverbial spanner in the works causing the lockdowns and so on, which is a shame as it really shouldn't be happening like this, vaccines SHOULD have been deployed in enough numbers to mitigate the seasonality effect dramatically.


----------



## over9k (26 November 2021)

Meanwhile, most of europe is down 3-4%, r2k futures are down near as makes no difference 5%, and then the next worst is the dow followed by the sp500 (which is down 2%, which whilst being bad is only half the losses of europe right now) and nasdaq:




As you can see, crypto across the board is also getting pounded because lockdowns etc obviously mean a hugely deflationary environment and crypto is very strongly correlated with inflation, hence the term "digital gold".

Unsurprisingly, all the other inflation correlated sectors like banks are getting smashed as well. 

Credit spreads have also predictably shot up like they always do whenever the economic shite hits the fan and I'm happy to explain this to anyone that doesn't know why it happens:









So, why are the markets the way they are?

It's actually quite simple:

Nasdaq futures look the best for two reasons: First, when everyone are locked indoors, everything's back to going electronic/with tech as we all work from home and stay inside watching netflix instead of going to the pub and so on and so forth, so the tech heavy nasdaq weathers this particular storm much better. Zoom is a classic indicator of this.

Secondly, when the whole market is smashed, everyone runs to safety (meaning bonds) so bonds run hard, dropping interest rates and therefore running p/e. Considering that the USD is also the flight to safety with currency, it is therefore not just bonds but *USD* bonds that markets run to when the proverbial hits the fan and we see 2, 5, 10 etc year rates just plummeting now, as well as the USD running hard against all other currencies (including crypto and the AUD).

So combine the nasdaq being tech heavy (so getting a boost from working etc at home) with it being both growth stocks (which are effected by p/e's changing, which are effected by bond yields) and U.S dollar denominated, we see it getting two simultaneous cushions from two different flights to safety occurring at the same time (both bonds and USD running) as well as a nice bounce from an actual increase in demand for a lot of the tech companies that it is composed of.

The AUD's even dropped >1% today already and we have the whole weekend to go yet. That exchange rate drop alone is enough to cushion basically the entirety of the nasdaq's futures drop, meaning a nasdaq tracking ETF like QQQ is actually basically* flat* by AUD value today, despite the smashing that global markets are seeing.



I know I might have bored everyone else to tears here but the way in which markets respond to things like this and why they respond the ways they (always) do is absolutely fascinating to an economics nerd like myself. If you'd asked me or any other econ propellerhead which markets would have responded in what ways to another variant and huge spike in cases like this I would have said every single thing that we're seeing right now and wouldn't you know it, every single thing you'd think would happen has happened to the letter. There's been literally no unpredictable/unexpected response to any of this whatsoever. None. It has happened *exactly* like last time with the delta variant, and the time before that when the pandemic first hit. EXACTLY.




Our only real curveball now is energy/oil, which are going to see a huge demand drop from the lockdowns but also may have major supply issues too. Which of these will be proportionately greater is a little difficult to say. Oil itself is obviously seeing a massive short term demand drop:




But it's the supply side that has me well & truly paying attention. If that gets choked off then all hell is going to break loose because that means big inflation of everything but an economy on its knees because of lockdown.

You know, *stagflation.*

To state the bleeding obvious, if the word "stagflation" starts to get mentioned in the news then it's well & truly time to panic.




I know my trigger finger is itchy as I haven't had a good degen trade in a while. I might buy some NRGU, BTU, GUSH etc within the next day or two. Monday's going to be very telling.

Watch this space!


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 November 2021)

over9k said:


> Our only real curveball now is energy/oil, which are going to see a huge demand drop from the lockdowns but also may have major supply issues too.



On the physical side of that, for those not already aware an oil or gas well doesn't in most cases suddenly stop producing in an instant. It's not like someone turning the lights out etc. Rather, what happens is more akin to a torch battery running down - the flow slowly but surely declines until a point is reached where it's not worth continuing.

The issue there being that drilling fell in a heap rather spectacularly with the pandemic. That's a lack of development as distinct from the also intentional shutting in or throttling of wells in production.

The ultimate effect of that lack of development is falling capacity. To the extent actual production is running below capacity that doesn't need to result in lower production immediately, but it's falling capacity nonetheless. Individual well flow rates diminishing, some reaching end of life completely. If you don't keep drilling then supply falls away.

In terms of the adequacy of supply, it's apparent that LNG (as distinct from natural gas in countries not trading it) really can't keep up. When LNG's being sold at a price premium to oil, well that's akin to someone saying that silver is worth more than gold or that economy class travel costs more than business class. It's a reversal of the established norm such is the extent of market tightness and that being so, it's a fair assumption that anyone who can produce is doing so right now.

Coal has the major complicating factor that the Chinese government has a substantial influence on production given that China accounts for ~half of world production and its government does exercise significant control. That's not intended as a political comment but simply a practical observation - there are forces other than purely market economics at work and the accuracy of production data is also questionable for many countries given that illegal coal mines are a thing, poorly policed taxation policies may encourage under-reporting and so on.

For oil well OPEC does publish claimed spare capacity but trouble is that nobody other than them really knows how accurate it is. It's entirely plausible that for political or market reasons the published figures might not match reality, or are perhaps calculated in a manner that's technically correct but only if interpreted in a way that's not what most people would take capacity to mean.

With that in mind, several OPEC members do seem to be struggling to meet production quotas. To be clear they're producing too little not too much as has been a problem in the past. That being so, it does raise questions as to why they're underproducing? Is it a short term problem? Is it intentional for political reasons etc? Or has capacity shrunk to the point that's all they've got?

More about that point here: https://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-7064-d8cb-a9ff-fbfe0cb70000


----------



## over9k (26 November 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> On the physical side of that, for those not already aware an oil or gas well doesn't in most cases suddenly stop producing in an instant. It's not like someone turning the lights out etc. Rather, what happens is more akin to a torch battery running down - the flow slowly but surely declines until a point is reached where it's not worth continuing.
> 
> The issue there being that drilling fell in a heap rather spectacularly with the pandemic. That's a lack of development as distinct from the also intentional shutting in or throttling of wells in production.
> 
> ...



Good post. Also worth noting which products usually get refined into what daughter products vs the alternatives when the primary unrefined supply dries up. 

Some things you can make with gas if you can't get oil, some you can make with oil if you can't get gas, some can only be made with one but not the other, so on and so forth. The overwhelming majority of stuff only uses gas if there's no other choice on account of gas being so much more difficult to transport than oil. 

A big one for inflation is fertiliser.


----------



## over9k (26 November 2021)

Great piece by wendover on the shipping sh!tshow:


----------



## over9k (27 November 2021)

Awwwwwwwww yeah: 




And to think I nearly pulled the trigger at open.


----------



## over9k (27 November 2021)

Worst day since the start of the pandemic. New variant has been designated as "omicron".

Fauci wants more data before closing the borders. No doubt there's going to be a lot go on this weekend. The vaccine makers and stay at home stocks like zoom, peloton, docusign etc ran HARD.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 November 2021)




----------



## qldfrog (27 November 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> View attachment 133475



Transitory only....🙄


----------



## over9k (29 November 2021)

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND HERE IT IS!


----------



## sptrawler (29 November 2021)

over9k said:


> AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND HERE IT IS!




Toilet rolls in? Check, Netflicks paid up? Check, prepare for lockdown.  😂


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 November 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Toilet rolls in? Check, Netflix paid up? Check, prepare for lockdown



Line of credit. Check.
Shopping list of oversold stocks. Under revision


----------



## qldfrog (29 November 2021)

I do not know if any of you are even trying to fly out of the country, as a qld and australian inmate, it is very VERY hard
initial plan was australia europe americas and back-> just a wish list
Now we are down to Australia ->1 transit via LA then central america;
Not only logistic nightmare, you can easily imagine with the test and check recheck but also
 VERY expensive with (nearly mandatory) insurance around $2k for 2 persons, worse will NOT cover you if our SMART travel recommendation switch to do not travel...
so basically 2k, quasi mandatory and probably useless and covering you zip.
Reset is here and toward completion of plan.
Escape is getting very HARD and only for the 1%
Add a nice market crash and we will soon gather in herds to take or boo cattle? trains filled with non Green check wearers..


----------



## sptrawler (29 November 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I do not know if any of you are even trying to fly out of the country, as a qld and australian inmate, it is very VERY hard
> initial plan was australia europe americas and back-> just a wish list
> Now we are down to Australia ->1 transit via LA then central america;
> Not only logistic nightmare, you can easily imagine with the test and check recheck but also
> ...



We have put a deposit down on a trip, London, Norway, Germany, Hungary, then back home.
Leave here Oct 4/ 2023.  
I may do my dough, but what the hell I can't take it with me and my departure date is getting closer.


----------



## againsthegrain (29 November 2021)

> Dr Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who issued an alert about the Omicron variant B.1.1.529, said the symptoms are usually “mild” in healthy people.




How come such panic then?


----------



## qldfrog (29 November 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> How come such panic then?



You know the drill, just need to go all the way with reset


----------



## moXJO (29 November 2021)

againsthegrain said:


> How come such panic then?



Take advantage of the sht show. 
Seems world governments and uber rich want 'degen plays' as well.


----------



## againsthegrain (29 November 2021)

moXJO said:


> Take advantage of the sht show.
> Seems world governments and uber rich want 'degen plays' as well.




Oh if I could top up even more fmg at 14~


----------



## wayneL (29 November 2021)

The delicious irony is that, as is all over the freaking internet already, that moronic is an anagram of Omicron.

It's as if they are just taking the piss now.


----------



## over9k (29 November 2021)

Brent crude's up 5% today. Yesterday was your degen play - the banks & energy companies bottomed at -7% on the day. ~22% if you went for a triple levered etf.

If you didn't do it then, you've missed this one.


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## over9k (30 November 2021)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/sto...-mean-150-barrel-by-2023-jpmorgan-2021-11-29/ 

JPM now predicting that oil could hit $150/barrel if supply issues aren't sorted. 



This is what happens when the demand side all get vaccinated but the supply side don't - increase on one side but not on the other.


----------



## moXJO (1 December 2021)

Building silicone is getting scarce. Up 34% and only to regular customers of suppliers.
I'd say a few chemical components will be hard to get


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 December 2021)

moXJO said:


> Building silicone is getting scarce. Up 34% and only to regular customers of suppliers.



Last time I was at Bunnings I wanted a very specific brush, it's an attachment to a powered device so it has to be that exact one, and Bunnings sells them. First store I went to there were none left in stock. Went to another store and bought the last one so now that store's out of stock too.

I also wanted a simple solar powered garden light but I wanted one the same as the others I've already got to replace a failed one. In short, well they have solar garden lights but that style was sold out at both stores. Looks like I'll have to buy one online if I can find a matching one.

OK, that's not critical stuff but still it's an example of things which were abundant and very easily obtained in the past but which are becoming more difficult to obtain now. In terms of inflation, well it cost me both time and money (fuel etc) to go to the second store that's further away.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

Ok so big hearing with both yellen & powell facing the politicians today and, well, there's a lot to cover. 




Nahhhhhh, you think?


I'll make a rare disclosure of my actual numbers I'm playing with:

I've pumped over 6 figures into crypto mining in the last two quarters alone. Here is why:




For a whole variety of reasons, I do not believe that we are going to see a deflationary or even just the desired reflationary environment, realistically speaking, for the better part of an entire generation, not least of all because governments have backed themselves into so much of a corner with national debt levels that they have literally no other choice but to monetise a really significant part of the debt.

In layman's terms, trillions of dollars of debt is going to be paid off with printed cash. That, simply put, is currency debasement. There's simply no other option at this point.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

So this screencap really tells you everything now, every single headline and subline and datapoint on it are all part of the same interconnected story: 






The 2-10 year spread flattened over 10 basis points just on powell & yellen's comments alone. Interest rates are about to bounce and they are about to bounce significantly. 

Hopefully everyone should know what that means by now as I've gone to painstaking lengths in this thread to explain how all this stuff is connected to markets and specifically which markets are effected and in what way and why but I can spell it out/spoon feed it to anyone that isn't still 100% confident. 

As I mentioned in my last post, crypto IS the play here


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

Oh dear. It just keeps getting worse:




And to get an idea of just how quickly all the trickle-down/out effects of rate spikes actually occur:




Though we have this omicron variant playing merry hell with things too and that's a total uncertainty.


So omicron plus fed comments = armageddon in the markets.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

And in the midnight hour, she cried more, more, more... 





NDX bottomed at -2% so far.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

Now Yellen's saying "Government is extremely limited in its ability to solve supply chain problems", which is just twisting the knife at this point.

Jesus christ this is one of my best nights at work in months. I'm just sitting back and watching the absolute meltdown everyone are having over all of this. All the streamers, degens on reddit etc are losing their collective minds.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

Meanwhile, ethereum's been +6% for the day at its best so far.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

So what point on the chart do you think it was where moderna et al made a public statement saying they're not sure how effective their vaccines are going to be against this new strain? 

(yes, that happened)


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

And the politicking has begun: 




As I said a few days ago, there's going to be no shortage of political hay made of this. As you can see, the comments are working/markets are climbing out. 

Rollercoaster of a day though.


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

Aaaaand we end the day at session lows: 




Amazing. What a ride. And not in a good way. 

Meanwhile, ethereum is up 5% on the day.


----------



## basilio (1 December 2021)

This analysis of the US stock market is sobering. The analysis of the valuations of the most significant components of the DOW Jones index tops off  the story

The Drop Is Coming And It Could Be Epic​Nov. 29, 2021 4:54 PM ETAMD, GS, GS.PA, GS.PC, GS.PD, GS.PJ, GS.PK, MSFT, NVDA, SP500, TSLA302 Comments72 Likes
Summary​
Some things have been troubling me about the stock market lately.
Ah, where to begin? The S&P 500's technical image is deteriorating, for starters.
Next, the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc, and major economies could experience slowdowns again.
To complicate matters, the Fed is kicking off its taper program to be followed by rate hikes.
On top of all this, stocks are at some of their most expensive valuations in history.









						The Stock Market Drop Is Coming And It Could Be Epic
					

Some things have been troubling me about the stock market lately. Ah, where to begin? Read more to see why the stock market drop is coming.




					seekingalpha.com


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

Question is whether omicron crushes demand (and supply) at the same time as the tapering begins. That's the perfect storm if it happens.

Triply so if the vaccines turn out to be shite against it, which we just don't know yet. 

Lots of uncertainty ahead.


----------



## againsthegrain (1 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Question is whether omicron crushes demand (and supply) at the same time as the tapering begins. That's the perfect storm if it happens.
> 
> Triply so if the vaccines turn out to be shite against it, which we just don't know yet.
> 
> Lots of uncertainty ahead.




groundhog day


----------



## qldfrog (1 December 2021)

next thing to look at is food, a virus going milder and more contagious aka std behaviour and we stop the world again, it will never stop.
Personally trying to get some insurance cover for our trip, a relevant one which will cover you for cancellation should gov so called SMART advise changes(after the purchase)..well good luck..so far only one we could find and have to look at the fine lines


----------



## wayneL (1 December 2021)

over9k said:


> In layman's terms, trillions of dollars of debt is going to be paid off with printed cash. That, simply put, is currency debasement. There's simply no other option at this point.



As an Economist, I make a really good farrier. But I've followed all this for a very long time and try to understand the whole deal.

I've listened to all the arguments, like Lacey Hunt's (and others) deflation thesis, and all the other theses as well.

And for what it's worth, I can't see us getting out of this any other way than what you said here. What's left of the productive part of the economy cannot pay it, and I just don't think that we can kick the can down the road foreign us for our children and grandchildren to pay for it... And I don't think that the proletariat will tolerate higher taxes.

The modus operandi of our fiat economies has always been to inflate away the debt but now I see no other option than to hyperinflate it away and anyone who does not invest accordingly is going to have their wealth disintegrated in short order.

If we watch the language of the US federal reserve carefully, it has subtly... Or maybe not so subtly changed. Inflation is no longer "transitory" etc.

The momma and poppa middle classes probably had better lube up, IMO


----------



## over9k (1 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> As an Economist, I make a really good farrier. But I've followed all this for a very long time and try to understand the whole deal.
> 
> I've listened to all the arguments, like Lacey Hunt's (and others) deflation thesis, and all the other theses as well.
> 
> ...



10/10, the only thing I'll add is that shite flows downhill - the further down the food chain you are, the more you're going to get f**ked.


----------



## wayneL (1 December 2021)

over9k said:


> 10/10, the only thing I'll add is that shite flows downhill - the further down the food chain you are, the more you're going to get f**ked.



I think they'll throw the boguns some crumbs so they don't riot, ah la Bogunkeeper or some such bs. It's those who think they have something to lose (massive mortgage, Ranger Wildtrack on tick, kids in private school, etc) who need to keep earning, or those relying on super or fixed income, who are going to get clown@#£&ed, in my humble opinion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> or those relying on super or fixed income



Perhaps it's worth discussing what those with long term investments in Super or elsewhere ought to be investing in?

Assuming that for Joe Average it's not really an option to be having their super in cryptos or to be day trading, they're realistically going to pick some broader strategy and implement it via ETF's, long term shareholdings, managed funds and so on.

My basic thoughts being in the broad areas of:

Agriculture

Energy

Metals both precious and industrial

Companies with real pricing power and business models that generate free cash flow and are hard for a competitor to replicate due to whatever barriers to entry.

Some real estate and cryptos if you can work out which ones.

Happy to be shot down if others disagree, that's why I'm posting it really. My point is a longer term one though - buy it today, forget about it until the inflation is pretty much done however many years from now. What should benefit from the whole thing overall not just the short term?


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> Bogunkeeper



Now that word's really going to take some explaining to foreigners......


----------



## frugal.rock (2 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> Ranger Wildtrack on tick



If you listen really carefully, you hear the word LEMON three times in this advertisement....
( in the music/ singing)
I nearly fell off my perch in laughter when I heard it!

What car company in their right mind does that?
I discovered this all on my own...



[Chorus]
A lemon grows a pip
A yard will build a ship
As Satan is my master
I will get you, Chip
A lemon grows a pip
A yard will build a ship
As Satan is my master
I'm gonna get you


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Perhaps it's worth discussing what those with long term investments in Super or elsewhere ought to be investing in?
> 
> Assuming that for Joe Average it's not really an option to be having their super in cryptos or to be day trading, they're realistically going to pick some broader strategy and implement it via ETF's, long term shareholdings, managed funds and so on.
> 
> ...



You've gone about this backwards to my way of thinking smurf - I usually ask where the demand is going to come from and then think about who's going to satisfy that demand.

I've posted population pyramids all over these forums so won't do so again, I'll just point out that USA, India, Mexico are the only non-african countries in the world with a positive demographic profile. The era of perpetual growth (stonks always go up) is not about to close but indeed, already behind us.

3/4 of the world is, for the next 30 years, going to look like the nikkei for the last 30.

The difference is that the japanese were still able to export to demand from world/international/foreign markets. Soon, not even those will exist. The end is well & truly nigh for a lot of the planet. Just take a look at china since feb of this year to get an idea of what I am talking about.

My point here is that it's not just about the debt but also how easily (or not) it can be paid off. The worse the demographic profile, the harder it is to pay off, and so the more of a bind the authorities are in. 

And this is before we even start with geopolitical stuff like the USD being the world's trade currency and thus flight to safety whenever the shite hits the fan etc etc. That's a whole extra layer to think about all on its own.


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

One area in which there is certain to be a demand expansion in is healthcare, and the reason why is quite simple: 

60-80 years after a baby boom, you have a healthcare boom as all the baby boomers get old and start creaking. 

Then you have a death boom.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 December 2021)

over9k said:


> You've gone about this backwards to my way of thinking smurf



The way I've looked at it is that if the currency of multiple countries is to be massively devalued then, short term movements aside, what ought to hold value by the time it's all done?

A flood of money is a claim on goods and the raw materials to make and run them, the supply of which isn't increasing anywhere near quickly enough with very long lead times involved to find minerals, develop mines and so on. So commodities of all kinds.

Any business that has real pricing power, either due to technology, resources or brand value, has an advantage over the rest who are competed down to the lowest survivable pricing. So monopolies or duopolies with high barriers to entry or things where the name alone drives sales.

Crypto seems to have been huge beneficiaries of inflation so far. Cryptos do have the problem from a long term investing perspective however that there's now more than 10,000 of them and if every other industry is any guide, most won't survive in the long term. There's a high risk of stuffing up the implementation, picking the wrong one, even if the underlying idea sees huge growth.

Real estate also a major beneficiary of inflation thus far but I do wonder about the impact of interest rates, the potential for government regulation, rising nationalist sentiment and so on going forward? Plus in the case of commercial, to what extent is demand for office and retail space going to permanently diminish and never come back to pre-pandemic levels? 

Note that I'm raising the question, I'm not saying I'm right. I am however thinking of a long term perspective - own it for the 2020's and sell when it's on the front page of Time or The Economist,  not own it until some daily chart says sell it sometime early next year etc.


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The way I've looked at it is that if the currency of multiple countries is to be massively devalued then, short term movements aside, what ought to hold value by the time it's all done?
> 
> A flood of money is a claim on goods and the raw materials to make and run them, the supply of which isn't increasing anywhere near quickly enough with very long lead times involved to find minerals, develop mines and so on. So commodities of all kinds.
> 
> ...



Sure but something's got to drive that flood of money in the first place. Aside from healthcare, it's economic winter for nearly everyone.


----------



## divs4ever (2 December 2021)

over9k said:


> One area in which there is certain to be a demand expansion in is healthcare, and the reason why is quite simple:
> 
> 60-80 years after a baby boom, you have a healthcare boom as all the baby boomers get old and start creaking.
> 
> Then you have a death boom.



 ( sigh)   i noticed the hoop-la over the virus  and decided that might be  a 'safe-haven ' strategy  i could dabble in so i bought some PFP ,
 i know most folks would prefer IVC  but i could never  get the numbers to crunch attractively  for me 

 although i am up nicely currently i do not expect this to be a multi-bagger  , but am looking for a company that might survive ( as long as i do ) and pay a sprinkling of divs  ( given i expect an economic downturn , eventually ( ever since 2013  i have been  waiting for that downturn )


----------



## divs4ever (2 December 2021)

look for nations that produce  something  , whether it is tea , rice , coffee and better still one with a naturally growing population  , too much immigration runs the risk  of social unrest 

 there a lot of places with big armies and mountains of debt that sounds like a bad place to invest to me


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

Good news on the omicron variant front. Stonks have now run hard on the news, erasing all of yesterday's losses. 

Wild week!


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

First omicron case in the U.S positively ID'd. Markets now plummeting again. Seems to have been a total flash crash though as it took all of ten minutes to erase the losses. 

Something tells me there's going to be a hard selloff tomorrow before the weekend.


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

Just as supply problems started easing too:


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

20% just in the last 5 days, 40% if you'd grabbed the inverse ETF before the trip down: 




See this trading stuff is easy - just buy on red days and sell on green ones.


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

over9k said:


> First omicron case in the U.S positively ID'd. Markets now plummeting again. Seems to have been a total flash crash though as it took all of ten minutes to erase the losses.
> 
> Something tells me there's going to be a hard selloff tomorrow before the weekend.



Scratch that. Things are mental. The nasdaq for example has gone +1.5 to -1.2 just on the day and there's still another 40 mins until close.

Amazing.


----------



## greggles (2 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Something tells me there's going to be a hard selloff tomorrow before the weekend.




We are definitely overdue for a market correction. All that saved lockdown money has been pumped into real estate, financial markets and crypto. The party had to end sooner or later. The markets have been disconnected from reality for some time, but now it looks like the smart money is getting out.

It all started last Friday, and ever since then any rise has been sold into hard. I think you're right about Friday night on US markets. I also suspect things are going to get very ugly.


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Scratch that. Things are mental. The nasdaq for example has gone +1.5 to -1.2 just on the day and there's still another 40 mins until close.
> 
> Amazing.



Close at -1.8. Oh the tears that have been cried today...


----------



## over9k (2 December 2021)

greggles said:


> We are definitely overdue for a market correction. All that saved lockdown money has been pumped into real estate, financial markets and crypto. The party had to end sooner or later. The markets have been disconnected from reality for some time, but now it looks like the smart money is getting out.
> 
> It all started last Friday, and ever since then any rise has been sold into hard. I think you're right about Friday night on US markets. I also suspect things are going to get very ugly.
> 
> View attachment 133687



NDX closed down -1.83%. The smart money might have pre-empted things.

I agree about the correction, but the printers haven't stopped yet, all they're talking about is slowing them down and not even that has started yet.




Up almost 2% at one point and then closed -1.2%. 

A 3.2% swing on the day is absolutely ridiculous.


----------



## over9k (3 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Ok so here's one for the new guys/econ students out there:
> 
> There's been a lot of talk about how airlines, cruise ships and so on have a tremendous amount of pent up demand and are going to see a huge rebound post-pandemic. This is true.
> 
> ...



Turns out it was apple: 





Seems iphones hit market saturation and now all the pumpkin spice latte sippers need a new model to come out to open their daddy's wallets again.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 December 2021)

greggles said:


> We are definitely overdue for a market correction.



I hope so - my system has put me two thirds in cash at the moment so either I've got it seriously wrong or there's a correction happening.

So I'm biased in hoping you're right otherwise I've stuffed up big time.


----------



## over9k (3 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I hope so - my system has put me two thirds in cash at the moment so either I've got it seriously wrong or there's a correction happening.
> 
> So I'm biased in hoping you're right otherwise I've stuffed up big time.



I'm surprised you trade systems smurf, you've always struck me as more of a qualitative guy?

I haven't even tried to run technicals and/or systems in this market. It's so far from typical we might as well be on another planet. Even today markets are going bonkers after russia broke opec's mandate and has opened its oil taps. Systems simply cannot predict that.


I showed a screencap before that a literal buy on red/sell on green days would have netted you 20% just in the last week. 40% if you'd gone total degen with inverse etf's on a rotation.

(this is not me trying to rub salt into the wound, it's a genuine question)


----------



## divs4ever (3 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I hope so - my system has put me two thirds in cash at the moment so either I've got it seriously wrong or there's a correction happening.
> 
> So I'm biased in hoping you're right otherwise I've stuffed up big time.



 well a proper settling has been due   since the floodgates opened on stimulus  now some say that was the GFC ,  some September 2019 , others  March 2020  ,

 normal logic would suggest a retrace before Xmas   ( a dip of less than 20% from the highs )  but when was the last time this market was normal 

just in case  remember the limitations  of the Government deposit guarantee ( UP TO $250,000 per ADI NOT account or bank ) i would hate to see folks with stranded cash if things go badly pear-shaped 

 if it is any consolation it looks like i will have more cash reserves than i am comfortable with before Xmas also ( i prefer to nibble not move the market )

 good luck


----------



## qldfrog (3 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The way I've looked at it is that if the currency of multiple countries is to be massively devalued then, short term movements aside, what ought to hold value by the time it's all done?
> 
> A flood of money is a claim on goods and the raw materials to make and run them, the supply of which isn't increasing anywhere near quickly enough with very long lead times involved to find minerals, develop mines and so on. So commodities of all kinds.
> 
> ...



Commodities diversified .i like s32 here, commodities etf
Silver,gold,copper.ideally mid tier not major miners of these
Agriculture land owning
Energy:coal or better oil outside West economies
Russia: as the some of the above and economic link to China.
Geographically
In my timeline:25 y, do not bother with europe africa or india ,
decreasing but not dead yet US.
If Biden side reelected,just forget it so soon decided.
 China and SE Asia but hard and getting harder to tap.
Maximize OS exposuredo not expect a smooth ride.
Curently experiencing how hard it is to get out of Australia even before Taipei fall:2y and ticking, the option of pm coins,gun ammos and can of beans where i add permaculture and solar panels might be a good one.


----------



## qldfrog (3 December 2021)

And look at this:
Just last month ,and against USD which is going with 10% yearly real inflation 


In the last month only,all your aud assets have fallen 4/74 or 5.5%.
Against a downward long trending currency i do not trust that much


----------



## over9k (3 December 2021)

No correction today, in fact we've had a big rebound. Omicron was a storm in a teacup. 

Gee, who would have thought? 


Combine that with OPEC opening the taps and it's full steam ahead again.


----------



## over9k (3 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Turns out it was apple:
> 
> View attachment 133729
> View attachment 133728
> ...



It wasn't apple. It was docusign. -29% afterhours on earnings and earnings forecast. Will obviously be a massacre on open tomorrow. 

I've been running docusign since I first bought into zoom early in the pandemic. It's been a thorn in my side the entire time.


----------



## over9k (3 December 2021)

Kind of incredible how quickly (and violently) this has happened.


----------



## wayneL (3 December 2021)

over9k said:


> View attachment 133744
> 
> 
> Kind of incredible how quickly (and violently) this has happened.



They'll have to do a missile strike or get another ship stuck in the Suez at this rate


----------



## over9k (4 December 2021)

And here's the massive friday selloff I predicted and there's still 5hrs to the close:




We've seen a good 2-3% move every single day this week giving a ~25% return with leveraged etf's simply buying on red days and selling on green.

Amazing.


----------



## over9k (4 December 2021)

over9k said:


> And here's the massive friday selloff I predicted and there's still 5hrs to the close:
> 
> View attachment 133782
> 
> ...



Still plummeting: 




I've bought a bit here, got another buy order in at the -3% mark too. 

This has been an amazing week.


----------



## over9k (4 December 2021)

over9k said:


> It wasn't apple. It was docusign. -29% afterhours on earnings and earnings forecast. Will obviously be a massacre on open tomorrow.
> 
> I've been running docusign since I first bought into zoom early in the pandemic. It's been a thorn in my side the entire time.



-40%:


----------



## over9k (4 December 2021)

Oh in case anyone's wondering why today's such a massacre, it's a combination of chinese tech crackdown and the jobs numbers coming in at 210k vs an estimated 550k, so missing massively.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 December 2021)

over9k said:


> I'm surprised you trade systems smurf, you've always struck me as more of a qualitative guy?



As a general rule you'd be spot on, that's exactly my approach.   

As with anything in life though, having a look over the other side of the fence to see what's there is worth a go and so I'm giving it a go.

I should clarify that the % in cash I referred to is for the system trading account only, not for the rest.


----------



## over9k (4 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general rule you'd be spot on, that's exactly my approach.
> 
> As with anything in life though, having a look over the other side of the fence to see what's there is worth a go and so I'm giving it a go.
> 
> *I should clarify that the % in cash I referred to is for the system trading account only, not for the rest. *



Ahh, yeah that's different then. 

You had me quite worried.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Ahh, yeah that's different then.
> 
> You had me quite worried.



My error there, I should have been more specific in the original post.... 

Off that subject though and looking at economic effects more broadly, the latest one seems to be concern about running short of urea.

Urea being used as an agricultural input as fertilizer plus along with demineralised water it's used as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF, more commonly known by the brand name AdBlue). Now the problem there is that whilst the purpose of DEF is to reduce exhaust emissions of NOx, machinery is programmed so that it can't be used without it. No DEF and the engine goes into limp mode. 

Now it seems that there's a shortage of urea so that's going to further add to the supply chain woes if it means trucks stop running, farm machinery stops and so on. Plenty about it in the media and elsewhere at the moment.









						AdBlue shortage spells imminent diesel crisis
					

The looming shortage of diesel exhaust fluid has transport bodies and governments scrambling to prevent a significant supply chain emergency.




					www.primemovermag.com.au
				












						Supply chain crisis could force cars off roads
					

The supply chain crisis wreaking havoc across the globe is set to step up a notch, amid reports a disastrous shortage could soon force everyday Aussie motorists off the road.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Urea being used as an agricultural input as fertilizer plus along with demineralised water it's used as diesel exhaust fluid



From what I'm hearing on the subject, this is looking rather serious.

As a problem, it could be summed up as saying it's rather like someone exactly two years ago noting that a strange virus has been reported in China but assuming "it's probably nothing". It's a great big elephant standing there that it seems few are paying attention to thus far despite the danger it poses.

The seemingly easy workaround of just not having the emissions controls working isn't anywhere near as simple as it might seem. First because of the legal implications. No reputable business that owns trucks, or a mechanic, is going to do it without government passing appropriate legislation that makes it legal. Then there's the logistics of actually doing it - there's rather a lot of trucks, buses and so on around.

Trying to simply fool the system by simply putting demineralised water in, instead of AdBlue, doesn't work either - once the sensors detect excess NOx it cripples the engine's performance basically.

So it seems that having rather a lot of trucks off the road is indeed a very plausible problem that's going to happen in 2022.

I'm not a truck expert but that's my understanding of the situation as at present. It's looking rather serious.


----------



## sptrawler (7 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> From what I'm hearing on the subject, this is looking rather serious.
> 
> As a problem, it could be summed up as saying it's rather like someone exactly two years ago noting that a strange virus has been reported in China but assuming "it's probably nothing". It's a great big elephant standing there that it seems few are paying attention to thus far despite the danger it poses.
> 
> ...



As with most things these days, those with minimal knowledge have the answers lol.
If we can't get Adblue , our trucks will shut down and it will require a remap of the vehicles ecu at a minimum to get it going, at worst it won't run.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 December 2021)

sptrawler said:


> As with most things these days, those with minimal knowledge have the answers lol.
> If we can't get Adblue , our trucks will shut down and it will require a remap of the vehicles ecu at a minimum to get it going, at worst it won't run.



It's not something I know about but I'm told that at least some farm machinery needs the stuff too.

Farm machinery and trucks not being usable = serious problem.

This issue is worth paying close attention to in my view. If it does end up as a crisis then it could stuff rather a lot of businesses with associated impacts on share prices etc. I'm not calling it and saying it's 100% certainly going to be a crisis, but there does appear to be real reason for concern at this point and paying close attention.


----------



## qldfrog (7 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's not something I know about but I'm told that at least some farm machinery needs the stuff too.
> 
> Farm machinery and trucks not being usable = serious problem.
> 
> This issue is worth paying close attention to in my view. If it does end up as a crisis then it could stuff rather a lot of businesses with associated impacts on share prices etc. I'm not calling it and saying it's 100% certainly going to be a crisis, but there does appear to be real reason for concern at this point and paying close attention.



And urea is fertiliser so you choose: food and no truck
 or
 no food but trucks
Anyway, next stage is food crisis, all part of the reset and mass control


----------



## divs4ever (7 December 2021)

all planned by experts , so feel free to PANIC at a time of your own convenience


----------



## sptrawler (7 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's not something I know about but I'm told that at least some farm machinery needs the stuff too.
> 
> Farm machinery and trucks not being usable = serious problem.
> 
> This issue is worth paying close attention to in my view. If it does end up as a crisis then it could stuff rather a lot of businesses with associated impacts on share prices etc. I'm not calling it and saying it's 100% certainly going to be a crisis, but there does appear to be real reason for concern at this point and paying close attention.



It mainly affects machinery made in Europe, Merc, VW, Puegot etc that run ,SCR catalytic converters.
So a lot of farm machinery, also a lot of road transport and government departments eg rubish trucks etc.
Wouldn't it be funny if VW was requested by the government to install code in the ecu that enabled it to bypass it's pollution limits.lol


----------



## qldfrog (7 December 2021)

sptrawler said:


> It mainly affects machinery made in Europe, Merc, VW, Puegot etc that run ,SCR catalytic converters.
> So a lot of farm machinery, also a lot of road transport and government departments eg rubish trucks etc.
> Wouldn't it be funny if VW was requested by the government to install code in the ecu that enabled it to bypass it's pollution limits.lol



starving but ideologically correct, so much easier to move to grain fed diet only when meat is unaffordable;
Anyone else seeing the similarity between China 50 y ago and the west in 2021?
40y ago, China was eating (sometimes) a vegan diet, wearing the same clothes, riding bicycle and freezing sweating in individual small cages with a district manager, parading with their little red books and had no individual transport, or freedom to travel;
Forward 50y
China is able to afford meat, eat at will, alcohol, meat, sugar, cigarettes, buying own cars with freeways being built and Chinese buying bigger and bigger flats, with AC freezing cold, wearing Gaucci and Rolex, driving mercs and audis
Travelling OS
And in the west.. we rave about plant based processed food aka crap, move back to bicycles and absence of ownership: car, unit, travel is now prevented and seen as guild trip, stop wasting the planet on clothes they say..tiny houses are the new mc mansions, you own nothing, be happy and go to mass demonstrations waving Greta watermelon signs..
I do not know about you, but not exactly impressed.Covid definitively as a mean


----------



## wayneL (7 December 2021)

qldfrog said:


> starving but ideologically correct, so much easier to move to grain fed diet only when meat is unaffordable;
> Anyone else seeing the similarity between China 50 y ago and the west in 2021?
> 40y ago, China was eating (sometimes) a vegan diet, wearing the same clothes, riding bicycle and freezing sweating in individual small cages with a district manager, parading with their little red books and had no individual transport, or freedom to travel;
> Forward 50y
> ...



...and so many, even so many here on ASF, cheering it on. 

Utterly depressing.


----------



## qldfrog (7 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> ...and so many, even so many here on ASF, cheering it on.
> 
> Utterly depressing.



I have lost hope in mankind, not people, some are still good but as a whole, this country deserves its fate and i feel like f. off if i can one day and just live selfishly.
What a waste of effort it has been ...


----------



## over9k (8 December 2021)

Meanwhile, we're back to business as usual in the markets:


----------



## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

am not sure what is usual anymore  but the US markets are UP

 real investor sentiment  or more QE ?? 

U.S. trade deficit shrinks as exports surge to record high









						Record exports sharply narrow U.S. trade deficit By Reuters
					

Record exports sharply narrow U.S. trade deficit




					www.investing.com


----------



## frugal.rock (8 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> real investor sentiment or more QE ??



Bloomberg yesterday evening...

"The latest financial system support measures came on Monday, with China’s central bank releasing about 1.2 trillion yuan ($188 billion) of liquidity via a cut in the reserve requirement ratio for most banks. The government pledged to support the housing market to better meet “reasonable” needs, adding to signs it will ease real estate curbs."

Asian markets ended well up and it rolled on into the US overnight.


----------



## over9k (8 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> am not sure what is usual anymore  but the US markets are UP
> 
> real investor sentiment  or more QE ??
> 
> ...



Real. Even the market manipulation is in full swing with all the talking heads carrying on about how we're in the middle of the transition from "fed driven support to organically driven growth". 

That should tell you what positions the banks are now holding.


----------



## divs4ever (8 December 2021)

well they are spreading the fertilizer  for that growth , on  thick .. that could be organic


----------



## over9k (11 December 2021)

Cross-post:


Aaaaaand the inflation data is in: 




Futures gone nuts everywhere about 0.5% in response, banks the best, everything's green as this was already priced in (because of course it was, you'd have to be an idiot not to think we were going to see numbers like this) but the best place to be with inflation is of course crypto, and most of that has run about twice as much as equities.


As far as an economic consequence, *real *wages have dropped. Wage growth is not keeping up with inflation. 

Which, if you know anything about fractional reserve banking/fiat currency systems, should not surprise you in the slightest either.


----------



## divs4ever (11 December 2021)

over9k said:


> As far as an economic consequence, *real *wages have dropped. Wage growth is not keeping up with inflation.
> 
> Which, if you know anything about fractional reserve banking/fiat currency systems, should not surprise you in the slightest either.




 not surprised there  ( but sadly sometimes i guess right , and this is a time like that )

 now will the market be propped up or will they let confidence be shaken  , that is the question


----------



## over9k (11 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> not surprised there  ( but sadly sometimes i guess right , and this is a time like that )
> 
> now will the market be propped up or will they let confidence be shaken  , that is the question



Everything's deep into the green. Most of this was already baked in, we just got the confirmation.


----------



## over9k (14 December 2021)

And markets are now of course actually worried about the omicron variant. 

Groundhog day.


----------



## divs4ever (14 December 2021)

Wall Street Opens Lower as Risk Appetite Dries up Ahead of Fed; Dow Down 130 Pts









						Wall Street Opens Lower as Risk Appetite Dries up Ahead of Fed; Dow Down 130 Pts By Investing.com
					

Wall Street Opens Lower as Risk Appetite Dries up Ahead of Fed; Dow Down 130 Pts




					www.investing.com
				




 OOPS  .. might need parachutes AND oxygen ( this could bounce either way  , or both in sequences )


----------



## over9k (14 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> Wall Street Opens Lower as Risk Appetite Dries up Ahead of Fed; Dow Down 130 Pts
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Omicron numbers spiking, more news at 11. 

You should only ever be worried when you don't know why something is happening.


----------



## moXJO (14 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Cross-post:
> 
> 
> Aaaaaand the inflation data is in:
> ...



Was the way they measured inflation tweaked during Obama?

Guys are saying that in reality it's closer to 16%


----------



## over9k (14 December 2021)

moXJO said:


> Was the way they measured inflation tweaked during Obama?
> 
> Guys are saying that in reality it's closer to 16%



They've been fudging it since long before then. 

There is a company (I forget who, one of those private intel mobs) that measures it by the old method and yes it's way above the official stats. 

Changing how a metric is measured every time it starts getting unfavourable is not a new trick.


----------



## moXJO (14 December 2021)

over9k said:


> They've been fudging it since long before then.
> 
> There is a company (I forget who, one of those private intel mobs) that measures it by the old method and yes it's way above the official stats.
> 
> Changing how a metric is measured every time it starts getting unfavourable is not a new trick.



Correct it's decades old. I think the latest was under Obama. Australia has done similar. Reportedly some of the food is up by 30+%

From start of covid I've watched some building materials raise a couple hundred percent. It's definitely running higher across a basket of goods.


----------



## wabullfrog (14 December 2021)

Ordered an LPG cylinder today, price has gone up by 10% since last order in early September


----------



## over9k (15 December 2021)

PPI numbers are in and they are BAD:






So we should all know the story now - NDX futures plummeted on the news, spy next worst, then dow:




The difference is that crypto is "only" up 2-4% and bonds haven't run that hard because this omicron variant is (now) playing merry hell with things.

So high inflation plus lockdowns & drops in economic activity give us red everywhere - stagnant economy but prices inflating anyway is as bad as it gets.

Crypto still in the green (slightly) so the best of a bad bunch.



You really have to think about an equities market only moving about 0.5% in response to a 9.6% PPI movement. If we go with estimates, *a 9.2% move was already priced in. *

I know a lot of that is base effect on account of the vaccine rollout only beginning late november of last year, but still...


----------



## over9k (15 December 2021)

Just in case anyone's wondering if the swing play rules aren't still applying. 

(they are)


----------



## over9k (15 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> My error there, I should have been more specific in the original post....
> 
> Off that subject though and looking at economic effects more broadly, the latest one seems to be concern about running short of urea.
> 
> ...



Updating this post, apparently panic buying has now set in and a run has begun on it like any run on anything else (a bank, toilet paper etc).


----------



## over9k (15 December 2021)

Alright so here's one for the econ students or the guys without any kind of formal training, why would we see a divergence like this: 




Hint: Remember that companies almost across the board are posting record profits, so the difference is not being absorbed by the companies.


----------



## greggles (15 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Alright so here's one for the econ students or the guys without any kind of formal training, why would we see a divergence like this:




I would say that the CPI numbers do not represent the actual price inflation that has occurred from the consumer's perspective, and are in fact understating them. The PPI is probably the more accurate figure while the CPI numbers are fudged.


----------



## over9k (15 December 2021)

greggles said:


> I would say that the CPI numbers do not represent the actual price inflation that has occurred from the consumer's perspective, and are in fact understating them. The PPI is probably the more accurate figure while the CPI numbers are fudged.



Correct. However there's more than one contributing factor. Can you think of anything else?

Remember that the cpi is the ppi with another metric added on top of it. Your answer lies within that metric.


----------



## wayneL (15 December 2021)

Wage growth?


----------



## over9k (15 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> Wage growth?



Bingo.




That difference is coming out of wages, not profits.

To complete this sorry picture, it's not like it's all wages either. It's only the low income earners getting hosed: 




And the end result?


----------



## over9k (16 December 2021)

For all the technical types, the r2k has just hit support again: 




I've grabbed a small amount just to see if the prophecy self-fulfils. 

Aside from that, just more omicron carryon. Bit of a slow news day. Looking like a red week overall, but a nice swing play yesterday.


----------



## over9k (16 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Good post. Also worth noting which products usually get refined into what daughter products vs the alternatives when the primary unrefined supply dries up.
> 
> Some things you can make with gas if you can't get oil, some you can make with oil if you can't get gas, some can only be made with one but not the other, so on and so forth. The overwhelming majority of stuff only uses gas if there's no other choice on account of gas being so much more difficult to transport than oil.
> 
> *A big one for inflation is fertiliser.*


----------



## over9k (16 December 2021)

Expected fed taper has been doubled in a huge sign of confidence, everything's flipped deep into the green except bonds obviously, yield curve's flattened, jolly good show.

Forward guidance is three interest rate hikes next year.


----------



## over9k (16 December 2021)

These types of headlines are just comical at this point.


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2021)

@over9k does anyone other than unsophisticated plebeians believe this shyte from CBs? Are the finance types just playing along until the music stops?

It seems to me only a few actually have their fingers on the pulse, rather than trying to make ridiculous calls that end up wrong almost all the time?


----------



## over9k (17 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> @over9k does anyone other than unsophisticated plebeians believe this shyte from CBs? Are the finance types just playing along until the music stops?
> 
> It seems to me only a few actually have their fingers on the pulse, rather than trying to make ridiculous calls that end up wrong almost all the time?



They wouldn't be the first authority that didn't want to admit that their control of a particular situation was, shall we say, limited. Remember that confidence is everything at a macro level. And that's before we even start with the competence angle (do you really think that they know what's going to happen/can see the future?).

Larry summers has been throwing bombs from the sidelines/voicing his opinion as loud as he has been for a reason.

Even in the private sector, I live in a near constant state of astonishment at just how utterly clueless so many "professional" money managers are, and we're talking people in charge of staggering sums of money in super funds etc. If you haven't at least 5x'd your money in this pandemic then you haven't even so much as beaten an index etf:





I manage my own money (and I've now had friends give me 5 figure sums of their own money) for a reason. I post up everything I do in this thread for that same reason as it doesn't cost me anything to help you guys beat the market as well.

Even something as simple as doing nothing but buying a leveraged index etf like SPXL or TQQQ and not making a single trade in 18 months makes the so called "actively" managed funds look like the absolute hacks that they are and I've made considerable effort to point that out in this thread too.

Last week alone netted 25% doing literally nothing but buying TQQQ on red and selling on green. That's it. Buy on a red day, sell on a green one. That's three years' returns for a super fund in normal market conditions done in a WEEK.


tl;dr most of the people in charge are incompetent, water also confirmed wet.


----------



## over9k (17 December 2021)

The other thing is that, like janet yellen, there's no shortage of utterly useless diversity hires getting more and more power nowadays: 




Which is a problem that is not going to get better either.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> @over9k does anyone other than unsophisticated plebeians believe this shyte from CBs? Are the finance types just playing along until the music stops?



I concluded long ago that being right at the top of the tree is something where the main required skill is not economics or a seemingly relevant field such as math but rather it's acting.

An ability to stand outside in gale force winds with torrential rain commenting on what a pleasant sunny day it is while remaining completely serious and giving no indication that you've even noticed the wind and rain. The sort of thing that a decent actor can do well but where the average person would just burst out laughing.


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2021)

over9k said:


> They wouldn't be the first authority that didn't want to admit that their control of a particular situation was, shall we say, limited. Remember that confidence is everything at a macro level. And that's before we even start with the competence angle (do you really think that they know what's going to happen/can see the future?).
> 
> Larry summers has been throwing bombs from the sidelines/voicing his opinion as loud as he has been for a reason.
> 
> ...



Your effort is noted but seemingly underappreciated.

5x... f*** me, I wish. I wouldn't be under bad-mannered nags owned by unappreciative trophy wives (as much as I appreciate summer in such situations).


----------



## over9k (17 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> Your effort is noted but seemingly underappreciated.
> 
> 5x... f*** me, I wish. I wouldn't be under bad-mannered nags owned by unappreciative trophy wives (as much as I appreciate summer in such situations).



Surely you've shadow traded me a bit?

Even this quick & dirty r2k buy I posted yesterday:



over9k said:


> For all the technical types, the r2k has just hit support again:
> 
> View attachment 134341
> 
> ...




Is looking like an 11%'er in under a day if it opens at premarket numbers:




As you can imagine, it doesn't take a lot of these (or just the swing plays I keep posting endlessly) for the numbers to add up very quickly.

With that being said, I did show the returns from just buying a leveraged etf and not making a single trade in 18 months too. FNGU has so far peaked at a 15 bagger, or about 11x your money after factoring in the exchange rate:




Admittedly I do do this full time and am up at all kinds of mental hours with the markets open 1.30am-8am and as best I can tell most forum members aren't, but you can still grab etf's and just sit on them if you have a day job etc you have to do.


----------



## over9k (17 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I concluded long ago that being right at the top of the tree is something where the main required skill is not economics or a seemingly relevant field such as math but rather it's acting.
> 
> An ability to stand outside in gale force winds with torrential rain commenting on what a pleasant sunny day it is while remaining completely serious and giving no indication that you've even noticed the wind and rain. The sort of thing that a decent actor can do well but where the average person would just burst out laughing.



Oh absolutely. I can remember post-gfc there was some bigwig in europe (I can't remember who) who several years later, after getting busted in what was clearly a bald-faced like actually outright said that "when things are REALLY bad, you actually HAVE to lie".

He wasn't wrong either - circular flow etc depends on confidence. Remove that confidence, things go to the wall, the more things go to the wall, the more people want to get out and so they just go to the wall faster, so on and so forth...

At a macro level economies are largely just huge feedback loops so yeah, he wasn't wrong.

(The austrian in me has an awful lot to say about this but this isn't the thread for it)


----------



## over9k (17 December 2021)

And as if on cue, we have a new most ridiculous headline of the week: 




I'd love to ask jpowell the very simple question of "How?". 



With that being said, ok guys, with this kind of stuff coming across the news every other day now, let's see if we can have another test/question post for the econ students or casual traders out there: 


If we assume that the powers that be are talking out of their asses about inflation only being transitory etc, what are going to be our plays/outperformers from here on out on a longer timeline, say medium term 1-5 years? 

The hint for this question actually lies in the graph I posted along with the last question:




Think about what is actually driving the cpi and ppi numbers up and why the ppi was higher than the cpi. If that inflation is NOT being driven by wage growth (which we know it isn't on account of the fact that the ppi is higher than the cpi) then what IS driving it? 

Remember that like the last question, there could be more than one force/factor at play here.


----------



## over9k (17 December 2021)

Imagine being the guy that bought at close yesterday.

Selling TNA at open was a good call today. @wayneL  I'm going to run another swing play selling banks & energy and buying tech & microchips soon if you want to join me for the ride and see if we end up taking it in the proverbial tomorrow.


----------



## over9k (18 December 2021)

A red week, but with all this inflation carryon vs the omicron variant, things have been just as choppy this week as they were last week and there appears to be no sign of it abating: 






Tune in next week for more ultra complex "buy on red day, sell on green one" swing plays. You don't have to get many of these right to make double-digits in a single week. 

Crypto's down on the week but so are bonds. Bonds are actually right back on their trend line though so we'll see what happens there.


----------



## qldfrog (18 December 2021)

wayneL said:


> Your effort is noted but seemingly underappreciated.
> 
> 5x... f*** me, I wish. I wouldn't be under bad-mannered nags owned by unappreciative trophy wives (as much as I appreciate summer in such situations).



You would indeed be better off under appreciative trophy wives than bad mannered nags,even in winter😂


----------



## over9k (21 December 2021)

Looking like a bloodbath at open tonight folks, so we all know what that means.


----------



## divs4ever (21 December 2021)

but we all had a Plan B sitting on the shelf   next to a useful pile of cash , RIGHT ??

 and yes i admit  some of my cash came from take-overs i hoped would fall through  ( but at least i don't blow it , on  a holiday ,  new car . or whatever )

 TAKE CARE and good luck


----------



## over9k (21 December 2021)

"Build back better" K.O'd by one defecting senator on a day after a weekend where the omicron numbers have skyrocketed so markets have all plummeted, but we've also found a bottom and just stayed there: 




So there's your signal.


----------



## over9k (21 December 2021)

2hrs after close.


----------



## qldfrog (22 December 2021)

Just something weird, while browsing our ASF site, noticed an advertisement from LATAM about South America flights opening,.
 It is no secret that I have been trying to travel O/S (central America) for 2years
No luck in booking something early next year, even after Qld opened last week yehhh
Anyway:
March 22 Latam opens, click the link:
LATAM australia online:








						Cheap flights with LATAM Airlines Australia | Official Site
					

Take advantage of the incredible discounts and flight deals offered by LATAM Airlines. Book your trip now and enjoy the best experience




					www.latamairlines.com
				



and I see that:



and I then check:


a mistake?


Nope...
hum...could this be that this airline has decided not to trust the AUD and so use USD so making sure it is edged against its operational costs.
I found this interesting ..and new Post covid.
still March.....


----------



## over9k (22 December 2021)

The next day:


----------



## over9k (22 December 2021)

Situation now critical in japan:


----------



## divs4ever (22 December 2021)

O-M-G  an outbreak of healthy eating in Japan  ???

 will the aged live even longer ??


----------



## over9k (22 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> O-M-G  an outbreak of healthy eating in Japan  ???
> 
> will the aged live even longer ??



Their supersize is probably an american medium so I wouldn't be too concerned.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Situation now critical in japan:



Does that mean they've stopped asking "would you like fries with that?"


----------



## over9k (22 December 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Does that mean they've stopped asking "would you like fries with that?"



It's whale over there isn't it?


----------



## over9k (24 December 2021)

Looks like the BS might be behind us and the bull market's back in session with three days green now. 

Still have omicron and energy as curveballs but markets don't seem to care about omicron much.


----------



## frugal.rock (24 December 2021)

over9k said:


> Looks like the BS might be behind us and the bull market's back in session with three days green now.



Definitely a late santa rally.
Crypto's breaking through resistance, all green.
AUD up 0.5% on USD
Oil and most metals all green.
Its pretty much a sea of green across the board, except for shorting vehicles, another bullish factor. Let's just forget about the toppy choppy frothy markets...🤫



over9k said:


> Still have omicron and energy as curveballs but markets don't seem to care about omicron much.



Re Omicron (or Omircon as the ABC had as a news backdrop splash poster thing... the national broadcaster that can't spell 💩)
yesterday was the first news day I noticed where market related news was all "Omicron worries easing" type crap, rather than Omicron doom and gloom hitting markets.

As for oil, up overnight, lower weekly stockpiles, busy holiday/travel season.
Chart breaking out of the 72 area (WTI)


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 December 2021)

and for some,  less than predictable change:









						COVID-19 is speeding up our shift towards a cashless future
					

The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating Australia's shift towards buy now, pay later and other digital payment methods – at the expense of physical cash. But not everyone is happy about moving too quickly to a cashless society.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## over9k (4 January 2022)

Screaming start to the year, nothing to report other than the normal SNAFU. 

About the only thing to keep an eye on is whether this gap: 




Continues to widen or actually starts narrowing finally.


----------



## over9k (4 January 2022)

Oh and you know how there's an etf for everything now?

Well there's a new one just for inflation:




Investors looking to bet on rising inflation have a new exchange-traded fund with a ticker to match: PPI.

The AXS Astoria Inflation Sensitive ETF invests in a mix of stocks, ETFs, TIPS and commodities that historically have reacted to inflation. About 90% of the fund’s holdings are equities -- with oil and gas, banking, and iron and steel the top industry groups -- and roughly 59% are in U.S. assets.

The fund’s ticker symbol was aptly named after the producer price index, a popular inflation metric. It is the first ETF issued issued by AXS Investments and will be actively managed by Astoria Advisors founder and CIO John Davi.

Find it here: https://www.axsinvestments.com/axs-astoria-inflation-sensitive-etf/


----------



## over9k (4 January 2022)

There is of course absolutely nothing to glean from the fact that an entire ETF now exists literally just to hedge against/bet on inflation. Nothing to that at all. Move along.


----------



## wayneL (4 January 2022)

Significant move in bonds overnight...  the next few days will be interesting. Will JP ride in to the rescue?


----------



## qldfrog (4 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and for some,  less than predictable change:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



less predictable change was ironic DF?
Indeed Reset 101 as per fully public WEC policies..just conspiracies...


----------



## over9k (4 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Significant move in bonds overnight...  the next few days will be interesting. Will JP ride in to the rescue?



Correct: 




And so today we see crypto do this: 




But it's the yield _curve _we need to focus on as that tells us how much the market does or doesn't believe this "transitory" inflation narrative. 

Once longer term yields bounce, i.e the whole curve moves upwards (flatter or not), then it's showtime. 

I post (pay attention to) the 10 year for a reason


----------



## over9k (5 January 2022)

And on cue:




And just a few minutes later, it's even worse: 




Alright gang, another post to put your thinking caps on with, what can we glean from these screencaps?

I've posted LOTS of hints in this thread already so this should be an easy one


----------



## divs4ever (5 January 2022)

COVID-19 loss of $44 billion is 3rd largest catastrophe cost to insurers - Howden

https://www.investing.com/news/econ...-catastrophe-cost-to-insurers--howden-2729811

QBE and SUN are on my top-up list but i doubt the price will slide far enough to attract me ( but i have been wrong before ESPECIALLY on insurers )

DYOR


----------



## over9k (5 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> COVID-19 loss of $44 billion is 3rd largest catastrophe cost to insurers - Howden
> 
> https://www.investing.com/news/econ...-catastrophe-cost-to-insurers--howden-2729811
> 
> ...



Lots of legal BS to go on with on this I suspect. No shortage of "what defines a disaster" or whatever type cases I'm sure. 

Also the exact kind of stimulus/bonds that get bought in this type of situation too so I suspect the money printers might come to the rescue here but that would also obviously depend on the legal case(s).


----------



## over9k (6 January 2022)

And we are on the MOVE ladies & gentlemen:


----------



## over9k (6 January 2022)

In case anyone's wondering what's happened, the fed minutes that were just released show that they're going to bring everything forward sooner than planned, a tacit admission that they think they've overcooked things/are worried. 

So both inflation expectations and confidence in the people steering the ship both take a massive hit and thus so do markets.  

Nasdaq closed 3.34% in the red. Largest one day drop since the snowstorm back in march of last year. Two solid red days in a row has my trigger finger itchy.


----------



## over9k (7 January 2022)

Rates still screaming:




Crypto's busted correlation over the past week or so but energy & banks have not:





Famous last words but I'm not seeing anything slowing this down yet, omicron is still causing supply chain hell and things like oil, microchips etc still have massive supply problems:


----------



## wayneL (7 January 2022)

Where do ya reckon rates have to go before everything blows the @#£& up?

....and where do y'all thing the Aussie peso is heading? Of particular interest to me at the moment, especially against GBP.

Most pundits are pretty bearish and that plays in my favour of true, but most pundits are always fracking wrong.


----------



## Knobby22 (7 January 2022)

Its substantially to do with China.
Severe lockdowns trying to suppress the spread. Leadership unable to reset. This will cause severe shortages of goods and an inflation spike (bigger than now).

Something will have to give over there. It will be interesting to watch over the next couple of months. Hopefully China wakes up by then.

Once the dam bursts expect short term deflation and a stock market boom over a number of months as capacity ramps back.









						China’s zero-COVID policy tests Xi’s iron grip and threatens the global economy
					

Beijing’s use of lockdowns to tackle coronavirus is hitting the Chinese economy hard and could fuel inflation around the world




					www.theage.com.au


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Where do ya reckon rates have to go before everything blows the @#£& up?
> 
> ....and where do y'all thing the Aussie peso is heading? Of particular interest to me at the moment, especially against GBP.
> 
> Most pundits are pretty bearish and that plays in my favour of true, but most pundits are always fracking wrong.



Everything where?


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

Alright so yesterday we had our inflation, and today we have our stagnation: 




And we're not even over the hump of winter yet.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Everything where?



Everywhere.

The extent of the upwards move in markets without a decent correction combined with so much automated trading and public participation is such that in my opinion the correction when it arrives will be hard and fast and with basically everything caught up in it.

Timing I won't pretend to know but when it arrives it'll be a panic "sell everything" moment is my expectation with many good assets dumped along with the froth. This will be a buying opportunity for those prepared.

Just my crystal ball gazing. (Be warned it's a cheap one and is actually acrylic not crystal....   )


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Everywhere.
> 
> The extent of the upwards move in markets without a decent correction combined with so much automated trading and public participation is such that in my opinion the correction when it arrives will be hard and fast and with basically everything caught up in it.
> 
> ...



Mmmm I'm not so sure smurf, the stimulus et al is going sooner than expected but we have both winter and omicron at the moment too. 

Seasonality makes a big difference here, same as once everyone's fought the omicron variant off. If we were looking at this situation at the start of october or something I'd be absolutely bricking it but there IS some light at the end of this particular tunnel. 

Downside protection could (should) have simply been some LEAP puts before the end of the year but it's worth thinking about what the cause of the downside will be, which I think I've made it pretty obvious to be inflation. 

Point is, even if you don't trade options, I've made quite a point of noting the energy and banking ETF's and now even the inflation themed ETF you can use to hedge with. 

The other big one to think about is what data (inputs) is actually pooled to calculate inflation, which at its fundamental level is largely just commodities, hence the chart I posted a while back showing the big difference between the PPI and CPI. 


Bottom line is that I think I've made it pretty obvious that I'm confident that the largest and most likely cause of any bear market is going to be inflation, so if you know how to make an inflation play (I should hope I've done an at least ok job showing everyone how to do that) then you'll be fine


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

On that topic, if anyone has any questions reference how to make an inflation play (if I've confused you over the past couple of pages or whatever) or why doing XYZ is how to do it then don't hesitate to ask, we're all here to make money after all


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Where do ya reckon rates have to go before everything blows the @#£& up?
> 
> *....and where do y'all thing the Aussie peso is heading? Of particular interest to me at the moment, especially against GBP.*
> 
> Most pundits are pretty bearish and that plays in my favour of true, but most pundits are always fracking wrong.



GBP is done for but that's not actually a great deal to do with the virus (though the virus isn't exactly helping) but because of brexit. 

AU's hard to say as there's far more variables, so much of this country depends on trade with china, which whilst going to hell in a handbasket, the powers that be have been manoeuvring away from for a while now. Twiggy forest has been moving FMG into renewable energy etc for a reason  

AU to stagnate, GBP to drop IMO. 


90% of my assets are denominated in USD and have been for quite some time now. I'm still as bullish as ever on america.


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

Still going:


----------



## sptrawler (8 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Everywhere.
> 
> The extent of the upwards move in markets without a decent correction combined with so much automated trading and public participation is such that in my opinion the correction when it arrives will be hard and fast and with basically everything caught up in it.
> 
> ...



I agree with you regarding a correction, however I'm a great believer in trends returning to the long term average, if you take the all odds long term graph we aren't that fat above the long term average.
When you add to that the underlying growth in the underlying economy, from increased mining capacity etc over the last 10 years, I really don't see Australia as being massively overvalued.
The U.S on the other hand, well it is looking like a house of cards ATM being propped up by its ability to write its own cheques IMO.
So if they implode there is nothing surer than we will follow, which as you say will present a buying opportunity, if you have funds available.
Just my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler (8 January 2022)

It will be interesting to see if workforce participation rates in the U.S, return to the pre pandemic levels, the Trump administration had halted and reversed the long slow slide prior to the pandemic.
It would be interesting to see if it becomes a worldwide trend post pandemic, where people are not returning to the workforce, or if it is just a hangover period.


----------



## sptrawler (8 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I agree with you regarding a correction, however I'm a great believer in trends returning to the long term average, if you take the all odds long term graph we aren't that fat above the long term average.
> When you add to that the underlying growth in the underlying economy, from increased mining capacity etc over the last 10 years, I really don't see Australia as being massively overvalued.
> The U.S on the other hand, well it is looking like a house of cards ATM being propped up by its ability to write its own cheques IMO.
> So if they implode there is nothing surer than we will follow, which as you say will present a buying opportunity, if you have funds available.
> Just my opinion.



I thought it best to include a chart with the above post, so here it is, now I'm on a pc.


----------



## qldfrog (8 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I thought it best to include a chart with the above post, so here it is, now I'm on a pc.
> 
> 
> View attachment 135437



but we did not get the trillions of QE that the US got so that explains a lot.
Not saying that PE are justified in the US but the US got that money, we only got breadcrumbs and the Chinese reserve bank is actually deflating the bubble  and we pay the price via reduced exports..not even mentioning political pressure or the complete shamble and costs  of Covid elimination wet dreams we had to endure...when wall street falls 35% so will we maybe even worse; what it will mean is our bargain will be more valuable


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I really don't see Australia as being massively overvalued.
> The U.S on the other hand,



I should have clarified that my comments are in relation to markets generally. That is, they're far more about the US than they are about Australia given the relative dominance of the US.

The post March-2020 run in the US' major indices just seems incredibly extended to me. The biggest alarm bell of the lot is seeing those ads from trading platforms marketed at novices which say something to the effect of "in a period of major volatility, if it gets really bad, you could even go as far as reducing the amount of leverage used". Um..... So lots of inexperienced traders and they're trading with leverage as the "normal" thing to do and they've only ever traded this bull run and nothing else? What could possibly go wrong.....

Then add in the more experienced traders who grasp that stocks can indeed go down and who have stop losses set either as such or they've got a firm line in the sand for a manually activated sell.

Then add in algorithmic trading.

Hence my thought that whenever a correction comes, it'll be hard and fast as humans rush for the exits and machines do likewise.


----------



## divs4ever (8 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Then add in the more experienced traders who grasp that stocks can indeed go down and who have stop losses set either as such or they've got a firm line in the sand for a manually activated sell.
> 
> Then add in algorithmic trading.
> 
> Hence my thought that whenever a correction comes, it'll be hard and fast as humans rush for the exits and machines do likewise.



​
 you seem to have great faith in the trading infrastructure  at times like that  , just in the past week  i have seen signs Commsec  ( or the ASX ) were not coping  well at high volume moments ( in the relative calm of post New Year trading , for goodness sake  NOT a $20 billion turnover day  )

 some other members were having issues  with Westpac 

 now  at one  stage we ( Australia ) had a 'circuit breaker '  where trading is paused at certain drop levels  , now maybe that is still in place  , and maybe it isn't 

  i think if the rush to the exit is big enough the system will snarl  , and stop-losses will not work as well as they should 

 add in panicked novices  trying for phone support trying the understand ASX/CHESS  glitches ( nave been  guilty of that at least twice ) ( at least one was  a stock sold but NOT credited , while a different stock was bought at a non-confirmed price  ( have i enough funds in the right place , and if not can i get those funds there in a timely manner .. not a problem at Bell you have to have the funds there FIRST , but i digress )

 of course i would love to just blame ASX/CHESS/Comsec but there is every chance the internet will be VERY busy as well trading platforms, news feeds , etc etc etc 

 those who were trading through March 2020 had a realistic taste  of what MIGHT go wrong 

 now ME sitting on some cash already ( like i was in February 2020 ) did NOT make me immune from complications , it did give me less to worry about   i could stop buying stocks and cover the bills for a year or more ,( even without dividends )

  i am half expecting a BIG rush to the  door to be nasty and messy ( say the retail traders get stalled  while the whales get to untangle their web of liabilities , ala the US GameStop saga )


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> you seem to have great faith in the trading infrastructure at times like that




Whilst I've no doubt that the infrastructure struggles to cope in some situations, in practice history shows it can process enough transactions to cause a price drop.

Eg March 2020. Despite infrastructure constraints, enough transactions went through in practice to crash the price.


----------



## sptrawler (8 January 2022)

@Smurf1976 I think you nailed it with the inexperienced traders, the house prices rises, the $230billion in extra savings over the pandemic period, the V shaped recovery, what can go wrong?
IMO what can keep it going right, China a mess the EU and UK a mess, the U.S a mess and the threat of the printing presses stopping.
It all sounds like the recession we have to have, I certainly hope not, but I cant see what is going to prop up these markets when the printers shut down.
Which I think is closely linked to employment numbers, there is no better time to put the brakes on, than when people are able to pay their bills.


----------



## over9k (8 January 2022)

The U.S running is actually precisely because of the absolute state of the rest of the world in comparison. 

Any port in a storm


----------



## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Whilst I've no doubt that the infrastructure struggles to cope in some situations, in practice history shows it can process enough transactions to cause a price drop.
> 
> Eg March 2020. Despite infrastructure constraints, enough transactions went through in practice to crash the price.



 i was hoping ( many international ) governments  would have seen infrastructure investment as their way out of the entanglement they were in   ,  and led  to economy out of trouble  , you had reduced  road and air traffic  , ports seem to be messed up am not sure if improvement at good value could be achieved  there 

 am totally stunned   a Sydney-Newcastle high-speed rail project  is higher priority than a Sydney-Canberra one  .  i still think Canberra  should  be the primary hub of it  , but obviously others still think Australia  revolves around Sydney ( Newcastle and Woolongong )

 Canberra is nicely placed to service Sydney , Melbourne and Adelaide  , but then again what is the pollies  favorite perk ( access to the Qantas executive lounge )


----------



## over9k (9 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i was hoping ( many international ) governments  would have seen infrastructure investment as their way out of the entanglement they were in   ,  and led  to economy out of trouble  , you had reduced  road and air traffic  , ports seem to be messed up am not sure if improvement at good value could be achieved  there
> 
> am totally stunned   a Sydney-Newcastle high-speed rail project  is higher priority than a Sydney-Canberra one  .  i still think Canberra  should  be the primary hub of it  , but obviously others still think Australia  revolves around Sydney ( Newcastle and Woolongong )
> 
> *Canberra is nicely placed to service Sydney , Melbourne and Adelaide  , but then again what is the pollies  favorite perk ( access to the Qantas executive lounge )*



Bingo. Nobody lives in canberra because they want to.


----------



## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> @Smurf1976 I think you nailed it with the inexperienced traders, the house prices rises, the $230billion in extra savings over the pandemic period, the V shaped recovery, what can go wrong?
> IMO what can keep it going right, China a mess the EU and UK a mess, the U.S a mess and the threat of the printing presses stopping.
> It all sounds like the recession we have to have, I certainly hope not, but I cant see what is going to prop up these markets when the printers shut down.
> Which I think is closely linked to employment numbers, there is no better time to put the brakes on, than when people are able to pay their bills.



 i see it as more of a K-shaped recovery  , and am wondering if some of those 'savings ' figures  haven't been 'recalculated ' ( just like the GDP figures, and 'inflation' numbers  )

 now maybe it is where i reside currently , but it looks more like were are currently in a recession ( unofficially of course ) , desperately trying to avoid  an official depression , 

 China can fix it's problems  , Xi is quite capable of being as brutal as it takes  ( Xi's father was one of Mao's generals )  , now the others THAT is the question , i am still trying to get a handle on Modi , i see India as another key player  ( and we should probably glance at Nigeria from time to time )


----------



## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Bingo. Nobody lives in canberra because they want to.



 well my two stops there ( on the way to somewhere else ) didn't impress  me  .. but both were after dark   maybe the glitter of fancy watches lights it up


----------



## noirua (9 January 2022)

England is playing a gamble on the omicron variant. However:
There were 313 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus reported on 8 January 2022, and 1,271 people in the last 7 days. This shows an increase of 352 compared to the previous 7 days.
A confirmed case is someone who has tested positive for coronavirus. There were 146,390 new people with a confirmed positive test result for coronavirus on 8 January 2022, and 1,227,288 people in the last 7 days. This shows an increase of 117,724 compared to the previous 7 days.
Some people with coronavirus have to go into hospital. There were 2,434 new people people with coronavirus who were admitted into hospital on 3 January 2022, and 15,812 people in the last 7 days. This shows an increase of 5,783 compared to the previous 7 days.

So will England be right as it takes no additional measures gambling on the omicron variant causing only 30% of the hospitalisations compared to the third wave?

This will surely be a test as economies feel the strain as they increase the money supply and bank on interest rates remaining low.

Next post will show why disaster to some economies is yet to happen!


----------



## noirua (9 January 2022)

THE NEW FRENCH VARIANT named 'IHU': https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2022/01/05/61d5a15fca4741185c8b457d.html

French researchers have detected *a new COVID-19 variant, named IHU*, which reportedly contains 46 mutations - more than any other coronavirus strain discovered since the virus outbreak.

The danger for economies is that each variant may combine in an Omicron Delta Super Variant  ODSV. The reason China and Australia are doing the right thing.

The new variant is believed to be more contagious than Omicron, which has been the most infectious COVID-19 variant ever detected.


----------



## noirua (9 January 2022)




----------



## qldfrog (9 January 2022)

noirua said:


> THE NEW FRENCH VARIANT named 'IHU': https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2022/01/05/61d5a15fca4741185c8b457d.html
> 
> French researchers have detected *a new COVID-19 variant, named IHU*, which reportedly contains 46 mutations - more than any other coronavirus strain discovered since the virus outbreak.
> 
> ...



If you get omicron: are you ptotected from that new variant or other near future variants?
that is the KEY question and that will transform your sentence:
"The reason China and Australia are doing the right thing" into
"The reason China and Australia are doing the right thing ..or the worst possible deadly mistake "
It is high time for bringing real science..but it will not happen..
For France, there are elections in May and campaign is in full mode so anything coming from there till June has to be taken with a serious amount of suspicion


----------



## Belli (9 January 2022)

noirua said:


> French researchers have detected *a new COVID-19 variant, named IHU*, which reportedly contains 46 mutations - more than any other coronavirus strain discovered since the virus outbreak.




I understand WHO have presently classified it as a "variant of interest" rather than a "variant of concern."

Some amusing comments to this pre-print.









						Emergence in Southern France of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of probably Cameroonian origin harbouring both substitutions N501Y and E484K in the spike protein
					

SARS-CoV-2 variants have become a major virological, epidemiological and clinical concern, particularly with regard to the risk of escape from vaccine-induced immunity. Here we describe the emergence of a new variant. For twelve SARS-CoV-positive patients living in the same geographical area of...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## qldfrog (9 January 2022)

Belli said:


> I understand WHO have presently classified it as a "variant of interest" rather than a "variant of concern."
> 
> Some amusing comments to this pre-print.
> 
> ...



To be honest,just fear mongering from media ..as the puppets from the masters.
Obviously omicron is benign and spreading ,and people are realising that hardly anyone dies FROM it, moreover jabs did not make a difference so they need to crank up the hysteria.
If the news stops,the $ stops and people. ..well for those still left with a whiff of thinking, will ask hard questions.
That can not and will not be allowed to happen.medically this is over..a bump in stats
So the history has to be:
We faced a catastrophic worldwide illness caused by global warming but we all banded together,the western labs performed a miracle and thanks to this safe jabs,we won.
Anyone thinking otherwise is a red neo nazi hiding under your bed, we will destroy these subhumans for the good of mankind,and sadly the economic crash , the empty shelves and $1100 steaks we have now are caused by the virus and these antivaxx.
Eat tofu
And just send us your gold silver and cash, we will sort it for you
Don't forget to wear your mask and scan your code,we need to track thes antivax terrorists
 you are a gooood boy/girl
Good summary?
Catch up in 10y and see what was so extreme?

A side note
@Knobby22 we had a kind of bet: tracing is still mandated here in qld but: there is no contamination tracing performed anymore ,
 and no one will alert you if someone else is contagious so what for? 
Except for tracking people as used by police:
checked 
and ATO..we will never know.
Why is this still in place?
Feel free to send my bet win to Joe

In memory of the small businesses lost, the sick people left dying and youth injured to support the narrative,  the lives ruined so far and the generations wasted ahead .


----------



## macca (9 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I should have clarified that my comments are in relation to markets generally. That is, they're far more about the US than they are about Australia given the relative dominance of the US.
> 
> The post March-2020 run in the US' major indices just seems incredibly extended to me. The biggest alarm bell of the lot is seeing those ads from trading platforms marketed at novices which say something to the effect of "in a period of major volatility, if it gets really bad, you could even go as far as reducing the amount of leverage used". Um..... So lots of inexperienced traders and they're trading with leverage as the "normal" thing to do and they've only ever traded this bull run and nothing else? What could possibly go wrong.....
> 
> ...




I guess at some point in time the current inflation rate in the USA must force the Fed to upset the game and actually do their job.

I have been reading for the past quarter, reports of USA inflation annualized to 6% and still nothing from the Fed.

I expect to see a dip over there for a couple of weeks while "certain people" lighten off, then surprise surprise, the Fed actually do something about the existing rampant inflation and start raising rates.

When we consider inflation is already there and they are about to be hit with rising food costs as well as rising heating costs, they really need to be raising 0.25% every meeting this year.

Look out below................


----------



## divs4ever (9 January 2022)

macca said:


> I guess at some point in time the current inflation rate in the USA must force the Fed to upset the game and actually do their job.
> 
> I have been reading for the past quarter, reports of USA inflation annualized to 6% and still nothing from the Fed.
> 
> ...



 BUT , BUT , isn't it the Fed's mission to inflate debt away  ??

 but yes this  could get very nasty  , especially if you wait for the government to provide the solution


----------



## over9k (9 January 2022)

macca said:


> I guess at some point in time the current inflation rate in the USA must force the Fed to upset the game and actually do their job.
> 
> I have been reading for the past quarter, reports of USA inflation annualized to 6% and still nothing from the Fed.
> 
> ...



Good post, but you missed one thing: 

Powell's term as fed chair expires *next month*.


----------



## wayneL (9 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Good post, but you missed one thing:
> 
> Powell's term as fed chair expires *next month*.



Hasn't Jerome Powelzebub been anointed as Emporer of Babylon the Great for another term?


----------



## Country Lad (9 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Hasn't Jerome Powelzebub been anointed as Emporer of Babylon the Great for another term?



Nominated but I have not heard he has been confirmed but which should be a given.


----------



## divs4ever (10 January 2022)

Country Lad said:


> Nominated but I have not heard he has been confirmed but which should be a given.



 that is what i understood as well ,  there is SOME chance  of a late push  for  the second-in-line to be elevated ,  but most Democrat Congress are corporate patsies as well  ,  so Powell  looks to be more acceptable  ( to most ) than the most likely replacement 

 HOWEVER if Biden was to resign from the Presidency  , Powell  might be under extra pressure to shorten his term ( normally i wouldn't worry about that too much .. but Biden does have some issues surrounding him )


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## over9k (10 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Hasn't Jerome Powelzebub been anointed as Emporer of Babylon the Great for another term?



Yes, but let's think about who actually appoints him. He has masters and knows (knew) that there was (is) a particular result they want.


----------



## Knobby22 (10 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Yes, but let's think about who actually appoints him. He has masters and knows (knew) that there was (is) a particular result they want.



And he also has a legacy to keep. 
I am sure he doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who stuffed it up.


----------



## over9k (10 January 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> And he also has a legacy to keep.
> I am sure he doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who stuffed it up.



I don't think he has a choice


----------



## macca (10 January 2022)

over9k said:


> I don't think he has a choice




When does he act, if not soon then, it will be 10% inflation with interest rates at zero, not beyond the realms of possibilities that 10% happens within 6 months.

The growing seasons in Europe and North America have been poor, so food goes up at the same time as oil and gas (Crimea situation is a Biggie) and inflation takes off

Interest rates would need to be raised a full 1% each Fed meeting for six months before it even started to slow it all down.

We would soon have a Black Monday and black every other day ending in Y

Very nasty and very incompetent


----------



## wayneL (10 January 2022)

Jim Bianco's view (thread)


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 January 2022)

macca said:


> The growing seasons in Europe and North America have been poor, so food goes up at the same time as oil and gas



There's an even greater relationship between the two than many would likely be aware.

Natural gas is the raw material for producing ammonia which is heavily used as fertilizer. To be clear that's not simply using gas to power machinery in the factory but rather, gas is the actual raw material from which it's made via a series of chemical reactions.

Oil (mostly in the form of diesel) not only powers most farm machinery and road transport but it's also the raw material from which various chemicals and so on are made.

In the reverse direction, various agricultural crops can be (are actually) used to make ethanol and biodiesel. Ethanol being added to petrol to boost the octane but if it's cheap enough then extra can be added simply to bulk out the product as sold.

So there's a heavy interlinkage there. Higher oil and gas prices directly adds to the cost of agricultural production. At the same time if petrol and diesel are selling at a higher price due to oil prices rising then that increases the price up to which agricultural products can be bought and profitably processed into ethanol or biodiesel. 

So they're quite intertwined.


----------



## qldfrog (10 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's an even greater relationship between the two than many would likely be aware.
> 
> Natural gas is the raw material for producing ammonia which is heavily used as fertilizer. To be clear that's not simply using gas to power machinery in the factory but rather, gas is the actual raw material from which it's made via a series of chemical reactions.
> 
> ...



and if you dig deeper, you quickly realise that
*cereals= oil;*
literally, most of the mega grain production is a sun based conversion of fossil fuels (fertiliser) into edible calories;
The green revolution which has allowed 10 billions humans on this planet not to starve  is an oil revolution;

*Remove oil:*
 the only energy left is the sun and most fertilisers disappear
Greta is VERY slim but happy in Sweden which is highly productive as we all know and the world population has to collapse by famine

Obviously, we still have some  oil, and so simply have extended shortage and higher oil price

As oil price increases, food price increases; add a bit of engineered shortage and collapsed supply chain:
: we saw the Arab Spring (cause by oil and food price); wait for the antivax pogroms.
How will the west react, and the rest of the world?
what will happen when the US and european cereal ships stop for 100 million Egyptians or 210 millions Nigerians ?
the pyramids are artistic but not exactly market garden perfect.
We have many crisis lurking, and the attempts at the Reset under Covid guise might overshot even the instigators


----------



## SirRumpole (10 January 2022)

And most plastics disappear as well. Can't  replace them overnight.


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## over9k (11 January 2022)

macca said:


> When does he act, if not soon then, it will be 10% inflation with interest rates at zero, not beyond the realms of possibilities that 10% happens within 6 months.
> 
> The growing seasons in Europe and North America have been poor, so food goes up at the same time as oil and gas (Crimea situation is a Biggie) and inflation takes off
> 
> ...



Again, supply side problem. The fed can't control the virus or weather.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Again, supply side problem. The fed can't control the virus or weather.



They can however stop diluting the money.

I can't think of any other industry whose product has deteriorated to the extent that central banks' fiat money has deteriorated over the past century. One Dollar used to have real purchasing power whereas now it's barely able to buy anything at all.

If cars had seen a similar loss of performance then the top speed of any car sold today would be considerably slower than walking pace.


----------



## over9k (11 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> They can however stop diluting the money.
> 
> I can't think of any other industry whose product has deteriorated to the extent that central banks' fiat money has deteriorated over the past century. One Dollar used to have real purchasing power whereas now it's barely able to buy anything at all.
> 
> If cars had seen a similar loss of performance then the top speed of any car sold today would be considerably slower than walking pace.



Nah not over the last century, only since 15 August 1971


----------



## over9k (11 January 2022)

Just in case anyone was wondering if we're in the perfect storm or not. 

Stagflation ahead folks.


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## over9k (11 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> Jim Bianco's view (thread)




What continues to blow my mind is the fact that people are actually surprised by this. How wasn't any (all) of this already priced in to basically everything?

Here's your inflation play in one screencap:


----------



## over9k (11 January 2022)

@macca here's some food for thought:

Another musing:

The fed doesn't use the CPI, it uses the PCE index. That's absolutely plummeted in response to omicron. Consumer discretionary is the worst sp500 sector at the moment. Might cause some kind of policy pivot (might).

Classic case of superior goods getting pounded first when money actually gets tight. With that being said, when energy et al prices shoot up, PCE numbers might shoot up anyway on account of consumers having no choice but to pay big money for some things (like heating oil).

There's also the simple fact that a lot of the stuff like laptops, furniture, kids' toys etc that were flying off the shelves and on back order for weeks/months at the start of the pandemic have already been bought now, so there's not a great deal left for consumers to actually spend their money on if they can't go out & do things.

Forward guidance and minutes suggests they've already committed to tapering etc but that was before omicron hit the worst numbers of the pandemic we are now seeing.

Point is, a policy pivot isn't totally out of the question with this omicron variant now. It kind of depends on the drop in discretionary spending vs what will undoubtedly be a huge bump in consumer staples/core inflationary goods (like energy). I need to look into the weighting of the PCE to have a better idea of what to expect.


If anyone knows the weightings of the PCE off the top of their head then post them up because that'll save me some time finding them.

Nasdaq down another 1.8% as of this posting.


----------



## over9k (11 January 2022)

NDX, after bottoming at -2.8% in the session, closed flat: 




VERY encouraging sign.


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## SirRumpole (12 January 2022)

Let it rip policies are destroying the economy, opinion.









						Healthy humans drive the economy: we're now witnessing one of the worst public policy failures in Australia's history
					

Some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, downplayed the economic costs of mass illness. We’re now seeing the result.




					theconversation.com


----------



## mullokintyre (12 January 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Let it rip policies are destroying the economy, opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Classic case of putting the cart before the horse.
No matter how good your logistics are, if there are no orgs manufacturing, growing or mining stuff, the logistics are worthless.
In regional Victoria, you could live extremely well bypassing the logistics and JIT principles by going to local markets, or even, as we do, buying directly from the farm gate, or even go pick yourself seeing as how difficult it is to get  ag workers.
No middle man, guaranteed fresh, and almost invariably cheaper.
We even have a bit of a bartering system - I have lots of strawberries, watermelons, and mulberries that I can swap for anything from wallnuts to garlic.
The only thing we are starved of this year, is tomatoes. Been a bad year for all of us.
Nothwithstanding that, two kms away is a massive hydroponic setup growing trussed tomatoes that has a guard dog that would lick you to death.
mick


----------



## qldfrog (12 January 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Let it rip policies are destroying the economy, opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Whereas the last 3y were a dream...
Just coming 3y too late IMHO


----------



## frugal.rock (12 January 2022)

After the last 2 nights, it would seem the Fed is on ice again.
I consider that "transitory" though... consumers will always consume. 😹


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## SirRumpole (12 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Classic case of putting the cart before the horse.
> No matter how good your logistics are, if there are no orgs manufacturing, growing or mining stuff, the logistics are worthless.
> In regional Victoria, you could live extremely well bypassing the logistics and JIT principles by going to local markets, or even, as we do, buying directly from the farm gate, or even go pick yourself seeing as how difficult it is to get  ag workers.
> No middle man, guaranteed fresh, and almost invariably cheaper.
> ...



Good for you. 

I don't think that your solutions are available to the vast majority though.


----------



## over9k (12 January 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> After the last 2 nights, it would seem the Fed is on ice again.
> I consider that "transitory" though... consumers will always consume. 😹


----------



## mullokintyre (12 January 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Let it rip policies are destroying the economy, opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I find it interesting that the article when talking about  the poor political response to the pandemic it says 


> That some political and business leaders have, from the outset of COVID-19, consistently downplayed the economic costs of mass illness, reflects a narrow, distorted economic lens. We’re now seeing the result – one of the worst public policy failures in Australia’s history.
> 
> The Omicron variant is tearing through Australia’s workforce, from health care and child care, to agriculture and manufacturing, to transportation and logistics, to emergency services.
> 
> The result is an unprecedented, and preventable, economic catastrophe. This catastrophe was visited upon us by leaders – NSW Premier Dom Perrotet and Prime Minister Scott Morrison in particular – on the grounds they were protecting the economy. Like a Mafia kingpin extorting money, this is the kind of “protection” that can kill you.



I would not argue with the above except for the fact that it has targeted two coalition leaders, and left the labour leaders untouched.
Victorian premier  Andrews, Qld Premier Palaszczuk, and the lockout king Wa Premier  MacGowan somehow were not guilty in any of the above.
Partisan Politics, nothing more, nothing less.
Mick


----------



## over9k (12 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> I find it interesting that the article when talking about  the poor political response to the pandemic it says
> 
> I would not argue with the above except for the fact that it has targeted two coalition leaders, and left the labour leaders untouched.
> Victorian premier  Andrews, Qld Premier Palaszczuk, and the lockout king Wa Premier  MacGowan somehow were not guilty in any of the above.
> ...



Remember me saying how they were going to get to a certain point and just give up? 

This is it.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> I find it interesting that the article when talking about  the poor political response to the pandemic it says
> 
> I would not argue with the above except for the fact that it has targeted two coalition leaders, and left the labour leaders untouched.
> Victorian premier  Andrews, Qld Premier Palaszczuk, and the lockout king Wa Premier  MacGowan somehow were not guilty in any of the above.
> ...




The National Cabinet agreed to the measures so they are all to blame in the end.

Whether the Feds put financial pressure on the States to tow the line is another issue.

No better example of Partisan politics than Friedburger kicking Victoria in Parliament while letting Gladys off the hook.


----------



## mullokintyre (12 January 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> The National Cabinet agreed to the measures so they are all to blame in the end.
> 
> Whether the Feds put financial pressure on the States to tow the line is another issue.
> 
> No better example of Partisan politics than Friedburger kicking Victoria in Parliament while letting Gladys off the hook.



Quite correct Sir Rumpole, but they are after all merely politicians, so partisan politics is standard issue.
Its when supposedly independent analysis descends into partisan politics is where things get a little questionable.
Mick


----------



## over9k (13 January 2022)

In today's issue of "only in the pandemic", inflation hits 7%, is actually lower than expected and causes a rally in stocks, especially tech.

10 year yield drops nearly 5 basis points in 20 minutes on the news.


----------



## wayneL (13 January 2022)

over9k said:


> In today's issue of "only in the pandemic", inflation hits 7%, is actually lower than expected and causes a rally in stocks, especially tech.
> 
> 10 year yield drops nearly 5 basis points in 20 minutes on the news.



It's been the same for 20 years, bad news is good news.


----------



## divs4ever (13 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's been the same for 20 years, bad news is good news.



well it works that way for contrarians


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 January 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Victorian premier Andrews, Qld Premier Palaszczuk, and the lockout king Wa Premier MacGowan somehow were not guilty in any of the above.



I don't follow WA politics but to my understanding the government there could hardly be accused of supporting a "let it rip" approach and is at the opposite end of the spectrum? If so then they're not guilty of doing so.

That said, most news and commentary has some underlying bias, the key is to identify what that bias is and view the content in that context.

Central banks do it routinely and nobody takes their comments literally I hope. They're to be interpreted and usually amount to a real situation with incomplete details provided.

Yes there is inflation.

Yes it is transitory.

Note that they haven't defined "transitory" and have left that open to any interpretation anyone chooses to apply. It could mean anything from days to decades.

That's the usual approach. The thing is real but some of the details are omitted. Politics, media, central banks etc all do it. One side did something bad - just don't mention that the other side did the same thing. No actual lie has been told, just be aware of the missing information.


----------



## over9k (13 January 2022)

Oh, and remember me talking about a permanent shift to working from home? Maybe only doing one day a week in the office, living hours and hours away if you could agree to such an arrangement with your employer? 






People are so keen to get out of the cities/not compete in the rat race that they're taking pay cuts (counteracted with commuting budgets) to do it. 

I'm not an accountant but this would likely come under fringe benefits here somehow. Nonetheless, I wouldn't hesitate to live in a completely different state/city and once a week take the 6am redeye flight to sydney or whatever if I could have such an arrangement too. 

Combine this with the massive wave of boomers selling up in the cities and retiring to the country and it's easy to see why rural house prices have had the fastest growth (by miles) since the pandemic began. 

I'd like to say this would give the coalition the impetus they need to just build the full fibre to premises NBN that krudd promised forever ago but I'm not holding my breath. 


This is a 200 year long urbanisation trend now in the process of not just stopping but actually reversing. Cool huh?


----------



## over9k (13 January 2022)

Energy & stuff.


----------



## divs4ever (13 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Oh, and remember me talking about a permanent shift to working from home? Maybe only doing one day a week in the office, living hours and hours away if you could agree to such an arrangement with your employer?
> 
> View attachment 135668
> View attachment 135667
> ...




 indeed an unexpected twist  ( in 2019 and earlier ) in infrastructure needs ( lighter traffic jams , less need for office space , but upgraded communication needs )

 interesting that you mentioned accountants  ( and i assume  tax agents )  having worked for a guy that  had a 'home office '   i assume the needs  for accountants and tax agents might  rise a little as well  as there MIGHT be a trend towards  low level office workers becoming sub-contractors 

 one share that caught my eye today was GNP with an extended contract to REMOVE  TLS copper cables 

 DYOR


----------



## over9k (13 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> indeed an unexpected twist  ( in 2019 and earlier ) in infrastructure needs ( lighter traffic jams , less need for office space , but upgraded communication needs )
> 
> interesting that you mentioned accountants  ( and i assume  tax agents )  having worked for a guy that  had a 'home office '   i assume the needs  for accountants and tax agents might  rise a little as well  as there MIGHT be a trend towards  low level office workers becoming sub-contractors
> 
> ...



My mrs is an accountant. She's been doing 70-80 hour weeks since the pandemic began. 

(She's completely burnt out but different discussion).


----------



## Knobby22 (13 January 2022)

over9k said:


> View attachment 135699
> 
> 
> Energy & stuff.



Energy and goods.


----------



## divs4ever (13 January 2022)

over9k said:


> My mrs is an accountant. She's been doing 70-80 hour weeks since the pandemic began.
> 
> (She's completely burnt out but different discussion).



 well  i invested in KPG  a while  back  @ 88 cents  and CUP  which has been a roller-coaster ride over the last decade  ,  but you can get where i was leading in the investing discussion  , there should be room for growth in the better companies 

 but your Mrs   , might need a holiday soon  , because i can't see  a big drop-off in workload   in the foreseeable future 

 OR if she is a fair  stock picker . finances analyst  i could think of some other income streams ( legal ones , of course )


----------



## over9k (13 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> well  i invested in KPG  a while  back  @ 88 cents  and CUP  which has been a roller-coaster ride over the last decade  ,  but you can get where i was leading in the investing discussion  , there should be room for growth in the better companies
> 
> but your Mrs   , might need a holiday soon  , because i can't see  a big drop-off in workload   in the foreseeable future
> 
> OR if she is a fair  stock picker . finances analyst  i could think of some other income streams ( legal ones , of course )



Oh she's absolutely retarded financially. She's an accountant and thinks like one (basically just games the tax system). Her knowledge of economics and investing etc is literally non-existent. It's both stupefying and hilarious just how economically/investing illiterate she actually is. I give her endless grief about it all the time. 

To be fair, she is a VERY good ACCOUNTANT, but only at accounting. 

Simple example: Buys a 3 bed 2 bath house. Lives in it ON HER OWN for 12 months so she gets the first home buyer's grant (gotta live in it for a year before it's counted as personal place of residence) and a couple of other tax advantages that I can't remember off the top of my head. Doesn't realise that even adding the first home buyer's grant in she's still better off living in a 1 bedroom apartment walking distance from work and just renting the place she's bought out as she'll make way way more in the difference in rent and saved commute costs (not to mention the time) than the first home buyer's grant is worth. Stuff like that. 

Like I said, both stupefying and hilarious. I was genuinely shocked when she told me told me about it. I mean she literally works with/manages clients' finances all day every day and was doing this. Just amazing. 

Then try explaining taking these numbers she's costing herself and investing them with compound interest over 30 years or whatever... just forget it.


----------



## over9k (13 January 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Energy and goods.



Burnout fuel & tyres


----------



## divs4ever (13 January 2022)

over9k said:


> Oh she's absolutely retarded financially. She's an accountant and thinks like one (basically just games the tax system). Her knowledge of economics and investing etc is literally non-existent. It's both stupefying and hilarious just how economically/investing illiterate she actually is. I give her endless grief about it all the time.
> 
> To be fair, she is a VERY good ACCOUNTANT, but only at accounting.
> 
> ...



 there are a few pages on Investopedia  she should read  then , on DRP and the math in compounding 

 did she keep  the 3 bed 2 bath  house  , or did she  sell it later  , maybe she intended low wear'n'tear  and a cheap flip ( bad tenants  can wreck a place  and lower the area  reputation )

but real estate is a quirky game  , i knew a guy  ( he's dead now ) built a block of single bedroom units  , in an area then known for family homes , it turned out to be just in front of the curve  and perfect for his investment needs ( that area now is awash with units , duplexes and town houses )

 but before  you give her too much grief  remember the Storm Financial Crisis , and  the plantation timber tax scams  , tax minimization  has always had a special allure  to some


----------



## over9k (14 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> there are a few pages on Investopedia  she should read  then , on DRP and the math in compounding
> 
> did she keep  the 3 bed 2 bath  house  , or did she  sell it later  , maybe she intended low wear'n'tear  and a cheap flip ( bad tenants  can wreck a place  and lower the area  reputation )
> 
> ...



Like I said, she's an excellent accountant (has made partner etc), just a complete potato with everything else. 

We're actually a pretty formidable combo put together as we both know the side of things that the other doesn't. You know, combination being better than the sum of the parts & all that.


----------



## over9k (14 January 2022)

Anyway, back on topic: 

PPI data in today, which unlike CPI was way worse than expected, so tech took it in the a$$. 

As I've pointed out before, the CPI is only running below the PPI because wages have remained so suppressed. Should something set them off, it's armageddon.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2022)

I remain convinced that one long term consequence of the pandemic is that we've seen the bottom for Australian manufacturing and there'll be a greater focus on it going forward.

I've posted that comment previously and I'm well aware it's a minority viewpoint but I see more evidence emerging.....

Nyrstar, the world's second largest zinc smelting company:

*Has cut production at the company's Budel (Netherlands) and Balen (Belgium) smelters by 50%.

*Has now placed the company's smelter at Auby (France) onto a care and maintenance basis. That is, production has ceased completely although it's not expected that the closure will be permanent (assuming power prices come down, see comment at end of post)

*Is proposing to invest $350 million upgrading the company's zinc smelter in Tasmania, presently the world's third largest zinc producer. This is additional to other upgrades in recent times. The project is now at the stage of obtaining development approvals - it's not simply an idea, it has gone beyond that and is now actively being progressed and has been publicly announced.

The Hobart operation at present produces ~250,000 tonnes of zinc and around 340,000 tonnes of sulphuric acid per annum with the new investment raising zinc production capacity to 300,000 tonnes or about 2.35% of world production.

So I think the corner has been turned. Go back some years and the Tasmanian plant was practically broke as a standalone operation but it seems to now be on a much firmer footing financially going forward with money being invested into the future.

Whilst it's not yet a goer and is less advanced than the Tasmanian project, the same company is actively investigating a $750 million development at its lead smelter in South Australia which, via product shipping in both directions, is operationally integrated with the Tasmanian plant producing zinc.

If it goes ahead then the SA project just happens to produce hydrogen as a convenient by-product for which there seems to be a growing market, noting that producing oxygen is a key objective as the smelting process needs that (versus most hydrogen production where the oxygen will be a waste by-product). The full project, if it goes ahead, needs about 440 MW of power to run it - that's a 28% increase in total consumption in SA averaged over 12 months so it's major in that regard, it'll become the largest electricity user in the state.

So zinc smelting, hydrogen and using lots of power. Sounds fine to me.  

As for the situation in France, well from the company's announcement on that:



> Power prices, already at historically high levels across Europe, have continued to rise in recent weeks in France, in excess of neighbouring European countries. This is as a result of low availability of nuclear power, high carbon-related costs passed on by power companies and reduced fixed-price allowances for industry. The price outlook for electricity prices in France in early 2022 indicates continued high prices and significant volatility.




Although they're working on the basis that prices will come down at some point and production can then resume.

Whilst that's all about one company, I've posted it in this thread since it's a foreign company not an ASX listed one and I do see the overall circumstances as being ultimately due to the great upheaval in world economics at present. My point's more about the shift in focus back toward making things in Australia, something I've been expecting since all this started, than this particular company which is just an example. An announcement to invest in a factory isn't something that's been common in Australia over the past few decades now.

There being a few other big industrials fishing around for bulk energy supply in Australia at the moment too....  

PS - Almost 20 years ago I donated some work to the Tasmanian plant when they were pretty much stuffed financially and on the edge. Payment = well I've got a hat with the now defunct company name on it and a miniature zinc ingot.....    So more than happy to see it's going well - doubt they'll send me a cheque now though.


----------



## SirRumpole (18 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I remain convinced that one long term consequence of the pandemic is that we've seen the bottom for Australian manufacturing and there'll be a greater focus on it going forward.
> 
> I've posted that comment previously and I'm well aware it's a minority viewpoint but I see more evidence emerging.....
> 
> ...



I hope you are right Smurf, fingers crossed for a government interested enough to give it a pathway to success.


----------



## qldfrog (18 January 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> I hope you are right Smurf, fingers crossed for a government interested enough to give it a pathway to success.



Yeap just hope you are right but 2 y after the start of the crisis,we have nationwide shortage of rat, our local Brisbane manufacturer is shipping these contractually to the state.while we import our rat by plane.. probably from china.workforce is decimated by covid measures..so gov med tape: we need a new colour to add to the red and green tapes..
A nice dream ...hope you are right.
The only explanation i can find of a company moving their production here from Europe is they expect a major fall in the AUD.or just incompetence due to lack of local knowledge.


----------



## wayneL (18 January 2022)

@Smurf1976 could power capacity be a limiting factor in that whole scenario?


----------



## qldfrog (18 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> @Smurf1976 could power capacity be a limiting factor in that whole scenario?



The way i see it, with hydro..water not H2, Tasmania has plenty of power can be stamped green and zip population so that is the good part..
but a site in Malaysia for example with Brunei oil and gas would make more sense imho but we are talking French Belgian company and Asia is unknown to them economically. could be just their next F.U.
As long as we get some bits and pieces and some Australians get work: all good..ohh and not costing us billions please


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> @Smurf1976 could power capacity be a limiting factor in that whole scenario?





qldfrog said:


> The only explanation i can find of a company moving their production here from Europe is they expect a major fall in the AUD.or just incompetence due to lack of local knowledge.




Energy's a big part of the reason.

Tasmania - annual output from wind + hydro presently matches consumption almost exactly but the state has an aim for 100% growth in output progressively by 2040. That's a "build it and they will come" economic strategy since there's no committed use for the energy, just an assumption that one will be found or worst case sell it to Victoria.

SA - highest use of wind and solar of any substantial grid in the world and the new project would of itself assist in increasing that from a technical perspective. There's some work to be done with transmission, storage etc but ultimately it's doable and the proposal is a staged development anyway so there's time available to get things done.

In both cases the state government is supportive of such industry as well.

Europe - energy price crisis going on right now has completely wrecked the economics of various manufacturing and processing operations, hence the shutdowns. 

Noting that with energy it's not just about physical supply but price certainty. In both cases in Australia, fixed price contracts should be doable whereas they don't seem to have managed to achieve that in Europe. That bit's the key - the ability to get stability and certainty over a key input cost.

I'm not expecting that Australian manufacturing's going back to it's 1960's heyday but I do think we've probably seen the bottom. The pandemic etc has exposed the folly of relying totally on imports or on trade with a single country meanwhile for various reasons companies are looking to diversify their base of operations. If we're smart then Australia should be able to pick at least a few things up is my expectation. Noting that it'll be the states and private enterprise, not the federal government, that's key to driving that.


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## wayneL (18 January 2022)

For a bloody long time now, I've made two broad macro arguments as far as Australian manufacturing is concerned.

1/ buy off showing a manufacturing to China we are handing them economic (and therefore eventually military) hegemony on a silver platter.

2/ our only competitive advantage as far as cost inputs are concerned was cheap energy. It seems to me that our politicians and more particularly our bureaucrats are intent on on decimating that advantage, therefore destroying any and all advantages that we may have.

Perhaps in light of the discussion here, my second point could be argued. 

But... That is still only valid in a low complexity economy and I think we ranked down about 95 or something like that at the moment.

We have no prospects in the higher complexity spectrum of manufacturing; 3 essentially p¹ssed that away about 20 or 30 years ago.

We have smart people here and we really need to find a way, in the macro sense, to stop fleeing to other jurisdictions that willingly play to their higher complexity thinking.

Otherwise we eventually end up as the sick man of Asia.

IMNTBCHO


----------



## wayneL (18 January 2022)

wayneL said:


> For a bloody long time now, I've made two broad macro arguments as far as Australian manufacturing is concerned.
> 
> 1/ buy off showing a manufacturing to China we are handing them economic (and therefore eventually military) hegemony on a silver platter.
> 
> ...



ETA... At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I absolutely hate autocorrect. I hope you all can figure out what I was saying. LOL


----------



## over9k (18 January 2022)

AU is the world's quarry. Supply of rocks, coal etc has actually remained pretty solid through the pandemic on account of the mines being naturally isolated in the middle of nowhere.


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## over9k (21 January 2022)

Dip buyers have emerged before all the futures change hands tomorrow, triple witching tomorrow as well I think but I'd have to go & check, not much else to report. Just the standard SNAFU.


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## over9k (22 January 2022)

Just one of many examples. For the technical guys, this is your buy point.


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## wayneL (22 January 2022)

Yep the main drivers of the market haven't really changed, not really. Just a few political prognostications and points of sentiment..

That of course could change pretty rapidly but I do think the mythical PPT will spring into action at any moment


----------



## sptrawler (23 January 2022)

Tourism and entertainment wont be the only ones feeling the pinch, due to covid. It will be hitting other sectors too.






						No Cookies | The Courier Mail
					

No Cookies




					www.couriermail.com.au
				



From the article:
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has responded to calls from leading surgeons to overturn a temporary ban on elective procedures.
Victorians waiting for elective surgeries will need to hold on longer, despite calls from surgeons to get them back into the operating theatre.
Following public pleas from surgeons to repeal the “blanket ban” on elective surgeries, calling it a “blunt tool” that was leaving people in long-term pain, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said there was more to consider than the request of a few.


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## qldfrog (23 January 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Tourism and entertainment wont be the only ones feeling the pinch, due to covid. It will be hitting other sectors too.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Let's stop blaming  Covid for that..
These are engineered hardships and shortages


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## divs4ever (24 January 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Let's stop blaming  Covid for that..
> These are engineered hardships and shortages



yes we need more election surgery   to cure that  if two or three parties need to be removed from the political scene so be it  , they are there to REPRESENT the people , not cling to power  with whatever it takes


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## over9k (24 January 2022)

Apparently there was a record inflow into SOXL in the last session, take that for whatever you think it's worth. 

All eyes are now on earnings, it's another battle of earnings vs p/e.


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## over9k (28 January 2022)

Earnings growth is winning the earnings vs inflation battle for now. Futures all screaming on the news. Lots more chop to come I expect.


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## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

is that earnings growth from a low base , or earnings propped up by stimulus/hardship packages 

 or maybe the inflation rate left out a few little rises 

 DYOR


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## wayneL (28 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> is that earnings growth from a low base , or earnings propped up by stimulus/hardship packages
> 
> or maybe the inflation rate left out a few little rises
> 
> DYOR



All of the above. If you look at other indicators things aren't so great.


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## divs4ever (28 January 2022)

all my indicators say pack an extra parachute  and a cut lunch  , but others disagree


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## over9k (29 January 2022)

Big drop in bonds, hard run in stonks (especially tech) for the whole session and particularly into the close, NDX up ~3.1% for the day, very encouraging sign.

Eyes on crypto this weekend.


----------



## over9k (1 February 2022)

Anyone buy the dip?


----------



## mullokintyre (1 February 2022)

Yeah, got some really hot chilli parmesan cheese and crushed pine nut dip.
Great with rice crackers.
I'll get my coat   ..

Mick


----------



## over9k (2 February 2022)

Jobs report in, is awful, futures flipped from +0.6 to -0.6, more no **** sherlock analysis:




As I keep saying, we've had our inflation, now here's your stagnation. 

Hence why we now get statements from the fed like this: 




If that doesn't tell you firstly that A: they're absolutely bricking it and B: they're going to err on the side of hot inflation than high unemployment, nothing will.


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## mullokintyre (4 February 2022)

During the early stages of the pandemic there calls for the Feds to put more into Job keeper, then afterwards the calls to publish the names of all those who got it.
For charities, NGOs,  and the larger public companies, the data would be published in their annual accounts, so everyone could see who got what.
In some quarters, there was a legislative push to force the ATO to   provide the names of all the  non public and NGO orgs that  got the Job keeper allowance as well. 
Robert Gotliebson in Todays Australian , in writing how that  legislation was thwarted,  by the ATO prviding to the parliament the data required but with all identifying  data redacted, provides some interesting stats on who got what.



> The “de-identified data” revealed that only 14,439 small business entities received JobKeeper which represented just 1.4 per cent of the more than one million entities who applied for it. But then came the amazing statistic – those 14,439 enterprises employed 1,348,324 Australians which represented 33 per cent of the individuals who benefited from JobKeeper payments.




That particular subset of citizens are most unlikely to be in the upper levels of income receipt, indeed more than likely be in the bottom quartile.
People will draw different conclusions to the above, depending on where they sit on the political spectrum.
Mick


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## over9k (5 February 2022)

*Largest miss in history*, however, the unemployment RATE has actually increased. 

So, we've seen a huge uptick in the participation rate. 


Inflation numbers out next week, all bets are now obviously off for that and we'll probably now see it way higher than expected/forecast. Markets are already pricing this in as bond yields have spiked on this news, as will energy etc tonight. Even more talk about a 50 basis point rise at the next fed meeting now. 

Even wages grew 0.7% vs a 0.5% estimated.


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## over9k (5 February 2022)

Oh and my gut instinct reference a 50 basis point rise: 

Won't happen. It'll spook markets too much for the fed's appetite. We'll see the expected 25 point rise unless there's a big narrative emerge about them being asleep at the wheel or whatever. 

(pure guesswork here, don't take out any positions based on this)


----------



## over9k (5 February 2022)




----------



## mullokintyre (5 February 2022)

over9k said:


> View attachment 137055
> 
> 
> *Largest miss in history*, however, the unemployment RATE has actually increased.
> ...



Always have to be careful about theses stats.
My old mate Chuck Casey used to say that if you took the L out of BLS, you would have a more accurate description of their work.
Like most of the Stats people around the world, the BLS is fond of seasonal adjustments, and every month is "seasonally adjusted" to account for these non underlying anomalies. In this case, seasonal adjustments took a loss of 2.8 million employed to a 467k gain.
Now thats what I call creative accounting!
From Zero Hedge


> First, looking at just the December to January change we find that while the seasonally adjusted number rose by an impressive 467K, *the unadjusted number collapsed, tumbling from 150.349 million to 147.525 million, a 2.8 million drop *(as it tends to do every time the year shifts from December to January) *meaning that the entire delta in the January number - somewhere in the 3+ million range - is due to arbitrary adjustments overlaid on top of the data.*



Secondly, its the ten year "readjustment" that the BLS do to past accounts, which  shows some drastic changes to figures.



> The plot thickens, and indeed one thing that analysts apparently forgot when they were submitting their forecasts for January's payrolls is that this is the month when the BLS adjusts data for the past 10 years as part of its population estimates revisions, which impact both the Household and more important, Establishment, surveys.
> 
> In summary, what these revisions did was to revise 2017 job growth lower by by -61,000, 2018 lower by -26,000, 2019 revised lower by -43,000, while 2020 was revised higher by 124,000, and 2021 was also revised up 217,000, or in total a 211,000 upward revision over 5 years or 3,500 jobs per month.
> 
> Focusing on just 2021, we find something curious: the stunning print from the summer which saw June and July print at or over 1 million, have been slashed by almost 50%, at the expense of most recent months such that October added 29K, November added 398K and December added 311K jobs to what was the original print only as a result of seasonal adjustments. Said otherwise, *March-July was revised lower by -1,061,000 while Aug-Dec was revised up by +817,000.*



There may well be valid reasons for these "adjustments", but whether valid or not, it displays just how little faith one can put in these stats.
Mick


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## over9k (5 February 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Always have to be careful about theses stats.
> My old mate Chuck Casey used to say that if you took the L out of BLS, you would have a more accurate description of their work.
> Like most of the Stats people around the world, the BLS is fond of seasonal adjustments, and every month is "seasonally adjusted" to account for these non underlying anomalies. In this case, seasonal adjustments took a loss of 2.8 million employed to a 467k gain.
> Now thats what I call creative accounting!
> ...



True, we could wax lyrical about this for days, but, perception is reality in this business


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## over9k (11 February 2022)

Inflation data out today, was bad, standard SNAFU, this chart really says everything for quite a while now guys: 






As soon as anything changes I'll let you know but I'm going to try to keep the inflation chat to the inflation thread on account of this one rapidly becoming groundhog day.


----------



## over9k (11 February 2022)

over9k said:


> Oh and my gut instinct reference a 50 basis point rise:
> 
> Won't happen. It'll spook markets too much for the fed's appetite. We'll see the expected 25 point rise unless there's a big narrative emerge about them being asleep at the wheel or whatever.
> 
> (pure guesswork here, don't take out any positions based on this)


----------



## wayneL (18 February 2022)

The law of unintended consequences... Canadian bank runs.

Well done Justin.


----------



## mullokintyre (18 February 2022)

Trudeau, a perfect  example of a leader who just can't seem to get his fellow citizens to follow.
Mick


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## over9k (20 February 2022)

fwiw


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> The law of unintended consequences... Canadian bank runs.
> 
> Well done Justin.




thought they would start for a different reason  , but was always ( since September 2019 )  apprehensive of this  ( either in a nation i have invested but especially here )

 has a future world leader stamped all over him


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## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

over9k said:


> fwiw




 as a  'baby-boomer ' also  , i am nothing like him  must have been the university education ( i chose not to  take )


----------



## qldfrog (21 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> as a  'baby-boomer ' also  , i am nothing like him  must have been the university education ( i chose not to  take )



Macron Trudeau Jacinta all hybrid communism v3.0: a mix of cronysm capitalism with communism pretext  and globalism.
They represent the worst of Chinese model but w/o the nationalism.
Still communism by any other name and the stooges of their Reset masters.

Which ALP leader will fulfill that role here and when will they take power is the question for us. Not if , just when.

Julia was a good candidate but came too early.And now after the covid scam they have the tools to impose.
Blocking crypto.. but..but..but.. associating any opposition to terrorism and seizing of bank accounts . that's the economic legacy of covid too..just happen to fit the Reset scenario duhhh
So have you been to the WEF site and read where you are heading to yet?


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## wayneL (21 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> . that's the economic legacy of covid too..just happen to fit the Reset scenario duhhh
> So have you been to the WEF site and read where you are heading to yet?



Only when it's too late


----------



## sptrawler (23 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Macron Trudeau Jacinta all hybrid communism v3.0: a mix of cronysm capitalism with communism pretext  and globalism.
> They represent the worst of Chinese model but w/o the nationalism.
> Still communism by any other name and the stooges of their Reset masters.



Tell me one high profile politician who came from a poor background, that didn't end up very wealthy and it couldn't have been done on a politicians salary.   

But getting back on thread another big building company biting the dust.
Verge of collapse: Tradies told to stop work on sites​National building company* Probuild* is reportedly preparing to call in administrators after making huge losses on projects around the country.


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## wayneL (23 February 2022)

'Straya's Evergrande?

Possible contagions?  Which horseman are we up to now @Sean K ?


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## Sean K (23 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> 'Straya's Evergrande?
> 
> Possible contagions?  Which horseman are we up to now @Sean K ?
> 
> View attachment 138008




Saddle being placed on the third I think Wayne.


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## moXJO (25 February 2022)

Certain electronic parts are now so hard to get that they went from $20 to $90. My sons business he works for has to close down for a few months till they can source parts.

Stock for furniture stores is often a 3 (or more) month wait.


----------



## qldfrog (25 February 2022)

I wonder if we will see a premium in housing market for established, no work needed houses vs reno/bare land due to this supply issue.
Will covid scam ultimately lead to some areas of cheaper real estate...
I am still keen to swap my no work needed place for more land shittier building but only because i can do a lot myself/think outside the box


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## over9k (8 March 2022)

Pandemic effectively ends 

Russians: 




Result:


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## mullokintyre (11 March 2022)

According to research from Oxford University via The Australian


> People who have been infected with coronavirus have reduced brain volume and perform less well on cognitive tasks, and the effect is more marked the older they are.
> The findings come from a study of almost 800 people, and is the first time scientists have been able to look at the brains of the same people before and after infection. This makes it the best evidence yet for prolonged neurological consequences of an infection.
> 
> However, it is not known whether the decline may be reversed over time, or whether it could be mitigated by getting vaccinated first.
> ...



If this is true, I suspect that Covid has been around a lot longer than we think.
Mick


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## qldfrog (11 March 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> According to research from Oxford University via The Australian
> 
> If this is true, I suspect that Covid has been around a lot longer than we think.
> Mick



Scientifically, the key question is: is the jab producing the same bad results, and is a jabbed person later infected displaying same or twice the negative effect..just pure logic and scientific process.good luck to get answers there


----------



## mullokintyre (11 March 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Scientifically, the key question is: is the jab producing the same bad results, and is a jabbed person later infected displaying same or twice the negative effect..just pure logic and scientific process.good luck to get answers there



Well, I guess we need to look at the viral status of the researchers.
If they have had covid and their cognitive functions have decreased, then we might question the quality of that research.
Of course, if they have had it more than once, they should go get another job!.
Mick


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## over9k (11 March 2022)

Being sick effects your mental function? 

Well colour me shocked.


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2022)

So to repeat what probably everybody already knows on here, the fed has Jacked rates 25 basis points overnight and the 10-year yield seems to be getting itself entrenched at greater than 2%.

The language indicates further rises at each and every fomc meeting for the rest of the year... All subject to "special circumstances" as they arise, of course.

Any guesses as to what our own reserve Bank will do  and the likely implications for our interest rates, economy and real estate market?

The wheel is spinning, last bets boys.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 March 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Scientifically, the key question is: is the jab producing the same bad results, and is a jabbed person later infected displaying same or twice the negative effect..just pure logic and scientific process.good luck to get answers there



It's funny you say that, because you may be aware, I'm an observatory sort of a person.

I have observed quite a few elderly people  (mainly at Aldi) whilst they were shopping and in the car park.
It appeared as they were operating on reduced cognitive function. 
One would imagine that they hadn't had covid as it wasn't prevalent in my area at all.
But one would imagine they were vaxxed to the hilt. 
Maybe it was the masks...?

Some schools in the US now want to do ECG's on kids as part of their physical, before they are allowed to participate in school sports. 
Florida state following Germany, in  recommending NOT vaxing healthy kids.


----------



## frugal.rock (17 March 2022)

With unemployment apparently now the lowest it's been in 14 years, I think there's a bit of wiggle room now... (depending on metrics, and I haven't seen the participation rate lately, oh, and when was the definitions last changed and when will they change again???

I'm guessing it may depend on who's elected. If Morrison wins it (rate rise) will get dragged out, otherwise if Albo takes the cake, rises will follow sooner, imho


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## mullokintyre (17 March 2022)

Lowe has stated numerous times, there will be no rate increases till 2023.
He's in charge of rates, and has the very best financial experts backed up by a ouji board and tea leaf reader.
So that answers it then.
Mick


----------



## over9k (18 March 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Lowe has stated numerous times, there will be no rate increases till 2023.
> He's in charge of rates, and has the very best financial experts backed up by a ouji board and tea leaf reader.
> So that answers it then.
> Mick



And is appointed by the liberals, who are on the take from real estate developers (and often are themselves).


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2022)

Well we did say globalisation has been given a kick in the goolies with covid induced supply issues, now with Russia showing that not everyone is touchy feely and needy, "times are a changing".

VW prepares for a deglobalised world​Car giant’s new resilience strategy: shorter supply chains, less focus on China and more investment in the US


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## moXJO (28 March 2022)

China's recent outbreak will cause troubles for supply lines again. Although with shipping containers extremely expensive to Australia. I'd say we will have new lines to fill the void. Or cut altogether.


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## qldfrog (5 April 2022)

https://money.yahoo.com/job-loss-pandemic-retirement-boom-175126823.html
One of the great stories: all these people realising that life is  important and retiring to move into yoga retreats,  becoming grandchildren care takers, helping salvation cantines and landcare tree planting might not be that cool..they just got sacked .
Ask all the non jabbed teachers or police, or yours truly if he would have carry on his startup if allowed....
After, yes, the decision to find something else is another story...


----------



## over9k (12 April 2022)

As moxy mentioned, big outbreak in china has cut off supply of all manner of stuff to combine with all these russia sanctions etc so it's an absolute slaughter.

Supply side cutoffs driving inflation, nothing new or surprising there at all.


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## over9k (12 April 2022)

Not looking good.


----------



## greggles (12 April 2022)

You can tell the market really doesn't want to go down. So much money saved in lockdowns has been pumped into the market and no matter how much bearish news comes out, it just can't seem to trigger any good, old fashioned panic selling.

We have war in Europe, the tail end of a global pandemic, rapidly rising inflation, broken global supply chains, high oil prices, record levels of consumer debt, money printing parties by western governments, and we still can't manage a decent correction. What's going on?


----------



## over9k (12 April 2022)

greggles said:


> You can tell the market really doesn't want to go down. So much money saved in lockdowns has been pumped into the market and no matter how much bearish news comes out, it just can't seem to trigger any good, old fashioned panic selling.
> 
> We have war in Europe, the tail end of a global pandemic, rapidly rising inflation, broken global supply chains, high oil prices, record levels of consumer debt, money printing parties by western governments, and we still can't manage a decent correction. What's going on?



When you say WE, who are you referring to exactly?


----------



## greggles (12 April 2022)

over9k said:


> When you say WE, who are you referring to exactly?




Western financial markets, but I guess I'm specifically thinking about the ASX and the US market.


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## over9k (12 April 2022)

greggles said:


> Western financial markets, but I guess I'm specifically thinking about the ASX and the US market.



QQQ is down 15% for the year so far with what looks like another 10% to go. I'd call that a correction.


----------



## greggles (12 April 2022)

over9k said:


> QQQ is down 15% for the year so far with what looks like another 10% to go. I'd call that a correction.




I guess I was thinking of an old school crap your pants type of high volume, panic selling correction where the market looks like it's falling off a cliff and traders have their heads in their hands quietly sobbing. Black Friday kind of stuff.

The indexes themselves are looking toppy, but I'm not yet seeing any evidence of a market rout.


----------



## qldfrog (12 April 2022)

greggles said:


> I guess I was thinking of an old school crap your pants type of high volume, panic selling correction where the market looks like it's falling off a cliff and traders have their heads in their hands quietly sobbing. Black Friday kind of stuff.
> 
> The indexes themselves are looking toppy, but I'm not yet seeing any evidence of a market rout.



 Ompare asx200 vs SPY
we do not go down.
Destroying all my models based on US indexes.


----------



## moXJO (12 April 2022)

over9k said:


> QQQ is down 15% for the year so far with what looks like another 10% to go. I'd call that a correction.



I want deep discounts. 50% off on all the stocks I want to buy.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 April 2022)

Meanwhile, what's that idle cash earning?


----------



## mullokintyre (12 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Meanwhile, what's that idle cash earning?



A rebuke.
Mick


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> I want deep discounts. 50% off on all the stocks I want to buy.



Keep yer powder dry mate... Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes


----------



## moXJO (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> Keep yer powder dry mate... Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes



I reckon if they ever did drop that much, I wouldn't want em then.


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> I reckon if they ever did drop that much, I wouldn't want em then.



I would buy gold at $900 with my ears pinned back


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> I would buy gold at $900 with my ears pinned back



And silver at 12 or $13... I would sell my cars, my positions, my house, my tools, my horses, my wife, 1 kidney and a testical, half my liver (though probably useless by now)... Probably  a cornea or two....


----------



## againsthegrain (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> And silver at 12 or $13... I would sell my cars, my positions, my house, my tools, my horses, my wife, 1 kidney and a testical, half my liver (though probably useless by now)... Probably  a cornea or two....




The stuff you "would sell" would also sell at a crap discount


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> The stuff you "would sell" would also sell at a crap discount



LOL fair point.

Maybe I should flog all that stuff off now and buy racehorses?


----------



## qldfrog (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> LOL fair point.
> 
> Maybe I should flog all that stuff off now and buy racehorses?



Gold in fiat $ is pretty cheap already


----------



## againsthegrain (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> LOL fair point.
> 
> Maybe I should flog all that stuff off now and buy racehorses?




what makes me crack up that the wife is in the same basket as everything else 😂


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> what makes me crack up that the wife is in the same basket as everything else 😂



I just hope she never reads this, otherwise I won't have any testicles to sell


----------



## againsthegrain (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> I just hope she never reads this, otherwise I won't have any testicles to sell



Put her on ignore 😂  or is it the other way around put yourself on her ignore... do both I never used the feature so donno


----------



## moXJO (12 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> And silver at 12 or $13...



Oh No. I bought kilos of the stuff the last time the "world was ending".  What is it now... roughly 15 years ago. Blocks of the crap just sitting there. At least gold only takes up a small amount of space.


----------



## qldfrog (12 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> what makes me crack up that the wife is in the same basket as everything else 😂



If she can fit in a basket, you will get a better price😉


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2022)

qldfrog said:


> If she can fit in a basket, you will get a better price😉



She is slim enough... Hmmmm


(Just joking, she is a keeper and always will be 😊)


----------



## over9k (13 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Oh No. I bought kilos of the stuff the last time the "world was ending".  What is it now... roughly 15 years ago. Blocks of the crap just sitting there. At least gold only takes up a small amount of space.



Should've bought it off tony blair when he sold all of britain's.


----------



## moXJO (13 April 2022)

over9k said:


> Should've bought it off tony blair when he sold all of britain's.




Good knows why I thought silver was a good deal. I can't be bothered selling it either so it just sits there.


----------



## greggles (13 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Good knows why I thought silver was a good deal. I can't be bothered selling it either so it just sits there.




If you bought it 15 years ago you must have doubled your money by now, so at least it's not a loss. Inflation will gradually increase the cost of mining it, so it's a pretty safe bet long term. I reckon we'll see $A50 silver this year.


----------



## moXJO (13 April 2022)

greggles said:


> If you bought it 15 years ago you must have doubled your money by now, so at least it's not a loss. Inflation will gradually increase the cost of mining it, so it's a pretty safe bet long term. I reckon we'll see $A50 silver this year.



I think I got them at $600 or $700 a bar. It's that long ago I can't remember.


----------



## over9k (13 April 2022)

Gold bugs are the weirdo's of investing. Everyone knows this.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 April 2022)

Just had a proper laugh reading you lot. Been a while. Good job!
😅
If mo sells his silver blocks, what does he use as door stops then ?


----------



## over9k (13 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> what makes me crack up that the wife is in the same basket as everything else 😂



While both gold and wives are both very expensive, wives corrode whereas gold does not. 

So gold is the obvious choice.


----------



## over9k (13 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Just had a proper laugh reading you lot. Been a while. Good job!
> 😅
> If mo sells his silver blocks, what does he use as door stops then ?



The remnants of his broken silver investing dreams?


----------



## moXJO (14 April 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Just had a proper laugh reading you lot. Been a while. Good job!
> 😅
> If mo sells his silver blocks, what does he use as door stops then ?



I bought a gold detector thinking I'd give it a crack. About $6000 at the time. 

Went out the back of ophir nsw. Proceeded to find every nail and bullet casing in 40 degree heat. Managed to get the Ute stuck and hiked 30 km to the nearest house for a tow.

Sold the gold detector for $9000 because of some gold rush in an African country and minelab had sold out of detectors and they were selling at a premium. 

Found another hobby.


----------



## over9k (14 April 2022)

"In a gold rush, you don't make money finding gold, you make it selling shovels". 

Or in moxy's case, metal detectors. 

So moxy's out here doing basically the #1 thing they tell you not to do in like your first lesson of finance 101. 

Good god man, what were you thinking? 

"Use a metal detector to find gold... I AM THE FIRST PERSON TO EVER THINK OF THIS"


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 April 2022)

over9k said:


> While both gold and wives are both very expensive, wives *corrode* whereas gold does not.




Corrode?

Your definition of a wife is perhaps somewhat unusual.....


----------



## over9k (14 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Corrode?
> 
> Your definition of a wife is perhaps somewhat unusual.....



Really? Your wife doesn't look worse as time goes on? I'm going to need to trade mine in for a younger model soon. 

After all, she is almost 30.


----------



## moXJO (14 April 2022)

over9k said:


> "In a gold rush, you don't make money finding gold, you make it selling shovels".
> 
> Or in moxy's case, metal detectors.
> 
> ...



It was a tough gig.
I like jumping into every scene to see what its about. My useless skills are numerous.


----------



## over9k (14 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> It was a tough gig.
> I like jumping into every scene to see what its about. My useless skills are numerous.



So have you heard of these new things called "NFT's"?


----------



## moXJO (14 April 2022)

over9k said:


> So have you heard of these new things called "NFT's"?



In first and out on hype.
2nd best investment in the world.

Now I've got to wait around for my next multi bagger gig. Some kind of "legal" arms dealer to Europe is looking good right now.


----------



## mullokintyre (14 April 2022)

over9k said:


> Really? Your wife doesn't look worse as time goes on? I'm going to need to trade mine in for a younger model soon.
> 
> After all, she is almost 30.



Your wife said the same thing about trading you in on a younger model.
Mick


----------



## sptrawler (15 April 2022)

The problem you face when you sack all your staff, then when things pick up, you have no one to that knows how to load a plane and work with your systems. 
Maybe Qantas should have used jobkeeper as it was meant to be used, to keep your trained staff on the books. My guess is there will be just as much confusion at the destination, when the luggage hasn't arrived. 🤣 









						Sydney airport chaos worsens ahead of Easter in global travel crisis
					

Airports around Australia and the world have reported extensive delays and huge crowds - but the issue won't be resolved any time soon. Find out why.




					au.news.yahoo.com


----------



## sptrawler (16 April 2022)

The vivid building stimulus is causing headaches.








						Why ‘GHOST SLABS’ are killing Perth building firms
					

In Up Late, Ben Harvey reveals the phenomenon of ‘ghost slabs’ - and how they’re bringing Perth building firms to their knees.




					www.perthnow.com.au


----------



## sptrawler (16 April 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The vivid building stimulus is causing headaches.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That was meant to read 'the covid building stimulus is causing a headache' my apologies predictive text.


----------



## mullokintyre (16 April 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The problem you face when you sack all your staff, then when things pick up, you have no one to that knows how to load a plane and work with your systems.
> Maybe Qantas should have used jobkeeper as it was meant to be used, to keep your trained staff on the books. My guess is there will be just as much confusion at the destination, when the luggage hasn't arrived. 🤣
> 
> 
> ...



And the various levels of government have to share the blame.
The border closures, both national and state   that  cut back on air travel did not help.
That does not mean to say that some level of border closure was necessary, its just that it went over the top, was too inflexible, and lasted too long. (yes i am talking to you WA)..
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 April 2022)

*@sptrawler 


And when you do get a tradie*


----------



## over9k (18 April 2022)

This one's just for you @moXJO xoxo


----------



## 3 hound (18 April 2022)

wayneL said:


> And silver at 12 or $13... I would sell my cars, my positions, my house, my tools, my horses, my wife, 1 kidney and a testical, half my liver (though probably useless by now)... Probably  a cornea or two....



How much you want for the tools??

The rest of your offerings sound like liabilities.


----------



## Knobby22 (18 April 2022)

Imagine if testicles were worth something. There would be a lot of lopsided guys around.


----------



## wayneL (18 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> How much you want for the tools??
> 
> The rest of your offerings sound like liabilities.



Well it's like this... If I die, I hope my wife doesn't sell them for what I told her I paid. (Just the six hammers in my truck add up to $1700)


----------



## moXJO (18 April 2022)

over9k said:


> This one's just for you @moXJO xoxo




I was out a while ago. Still got some nft horses left that have 15% and above returns via bets. Once inflation looked like hitting I moved out of all crypto coins. The big gains in that are when money is floating around the system. Need another govt stimulus pump. 
Crypto was an insane boost to my portfolio. I learnt from 2017 to get all out and not hold.

I'm out of investments atm and into real world stuff right now. I gotta wait around for the next big thing to get my attention investment wise.

 More profitable sourcing parts/materials right now.


----------



## moXJO (18 April 2022)

over9k said:


> This one's just for you @moXJO xoxo




Actually this is my trading style. Trade on these pumps is where the money is. But you want to be in as close to first in. 

Constantly monitoring the net for the latest trend forming is the hard part.


----------



## divs4ever (18 April 2022)

over9k said:


> QQQ is down 15% for the year so far with what looks like another 10% to go. I'd call that a correction.



that sounds like a reasonable call to me  ,  just be careful if it hits that target  ( it could bounce either way  short-term )


----------



## divs4ever (18 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> I was out a while ago. Still got some nft horses left that have 15% and above returns via bets. Once inflation looked like hitting I moved out of all crypto coins. The big gains in that are when money is floating around the system. Need another govt stimulus pump.
> Crypto was an insane boost to my portfolio. I learnt from 2017 to get all out and not hold.
> 
> I'm out of investments atm and into real world stuff right now. I gotta wait around for the next big thing to get my attention investment wise.
> ...



 am not 'out of  the investments ' but am probably as cashed up now as anytime  after the first year of the inheritance  ( and am hoping foe some extra sells and reductions  , but yes i am putting SOME cash into 'real world stuff ' as well , and just accumulating extra stuff as well ( stuff like second hand  books and other 'obsolete stuff ' )


----------



## over9k (18 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that sounds like a reasonable call to me  ,  just be careful if it hits that target  ( it could bounce either way  short-term )



It's going to get slaughtered tonight, but fact is that there's more energy supply pain (war etc) to come. Markets still haven't realised that the russian supply is going to be cut off more or less permanently.


----------



## 3 hound (18 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> am not 'out of  the investments ' but am probably as cashed up now as anytime  after the first year of the inheritance  ( and am hoping foe some extra sells and reductions  , but yes i am putting SOME cash into 'real world stuff ' as well , and just accumulating extra stuff as well ( stuff like second hand  books and other 'obsolete stuff ' )



Were you into stock trading before the inheritance?


----------



## over9k (19 April 2022)

Ok guys australian prostitution, beer, pizza, and cocaine sales are going to plummet for the next fortnight as I've just tested positive for covid and have to quarantine.


----------



## peter2 (19 April 2022)

Sad for you  . Happy for us, we'll see lot more posts.

Lots more day trading (better keep the coke coming via the Uber Crack App).

If that doesn't appeal you can always clean the bathroom.


----------



## over9k (19 April 2022)

peter2 said:


> Sad for you  . Happy for us, we'll see lot more posts.
> 
> Lots more day trading (*better keep the coke coming via the Uber Crack App*).
> 
> If that doesn't appeal you can always clean the bathroom.



Gotta lay off the coke, it contaminates the covid tests


----------



## peter2 (19 April 2022)

over9k said:


> Gotta lay off the coke, it contaminates the covid tests



Yeah, it's the same for Pepsi.


----------



## divs4ever (19 April 2022)

over9k said:


> It's going to get slaughtered tonight, but fact is that there's more energy supply pain (war etc) to come. Markets still haven't realised that the russian supply is going to be cut off more or less permanently.





 i kinda disagree , i see the Russian and Iranian oil/gas  going more and more to China and and India  , BUT who will fill the gap  oil producer Libya is a mess ( and MIGHT yet turn anti-NATO if it stabilizes ) , Venezuela , won't be able to crank up production quickly and i haven't been watching Nigeria lately , several others SEEM to be near full capacity 

 there is actually plenty of oil and gas  sitting around undeveloped , or currently uneconomic  ( but there is a climate change agenda trying to crush funding ) 

 BUT i guess  while we believe that nest of fraudsters and gamblers ( the commodity markets )  everything is possible  ( negative oil , etc etc )


----------



## divs4ever (19 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Were you into stock trading before the inheritance?



 NO , i sometimes   glanced at what mum was doing  while administering another relatives affairs ( the  relative bought the shares decades before  to beef up the retirement income )

 i understood what a DRP ( the WOW and CSR holdings were DRPed ) was and franking credits  and that was about it


----------



## 3 hound (19 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> NO , i sometimes   glanced at what mum was doing  while administering another relatives affairs ( the  relative bought the shares decades before  to beef up the retirement income )
> 
> i understood what a DRP ( the WOW and CSR holdings were DRPed ) was and franking credits  and that was about it



I am pretty much in the same position now that you were in then except I have no idea what's DPR or a franking  credit etc is.  I am just going to pay a financial planner to tell me what to do.


----------



## 3 hound (19 April 2022)

over9k said:


> Ok guys australian prostitution, beer, pizza, and cocaine sales are going to plummet for the next fortnight as I've just tested positive for covid and have to quarantine.



Is this like insider trading if I take your information and ditch all my shares in hookers & cocaine?


----------



## againsthegrain (19 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I am pretty much in the same position now that you were in then except I have no idea what's DPR or a franking  credit etc is.  I am just going to pay a financial planner to tell me what to do.


----------



## over9k (19 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Is this like insider trading if I take your information and ditch all my shares in hookers & cocaine?



Only if you get one over the big money hedge funds etc. If they make money too, you're in the clear - they can't prosecute you without prosecuting them too and they'll never prosecute them.


----------



## 3 hound (19 April 2022)

over9k said:


> Only if you get one over the big money hedge funds etc. If they make money too, you're in the clear - they can't prosecute you without prosecuting them too and they'll never prosecute them.



Noted, thanks for the legal and financial advice 😆


----------



## divs4ever (19 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


>



 i think i meant DRP  ... oops


----------



## divs4ever (19 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I am pretty much in the same position now that you were in then except I have no idea what's DPR or a franking  credit etc is.  I am just going to pay a financial planner to tell me what to do.



 first EDUCATE yourself  , so you have a fair idea  what your adviser is telling you  ( and if it is good for you , or VERY good for them )

 i got some financial advice  ( buy share-packs that their bank sold  , which of course meant you needed a trading account  via the very same bank  .. ( i chose not to take that advice ) 

  i believe that bank got a mention in the Hayne Royal Commission  ( regarding conflicted  advice )

 so indeed  have a good idea  about stuff and let the adviser  fine-tune your outcome 

 DRP is dividend reinvestment plan  , where you get your divs paid in extra shares  , now this doesn't suit everyone ( and every company plan is different if they have one at all )

 franking credits is where the company prepays  the income tax on your dividend ( not all companies do this when paying a div )

 so you can reduce your tax bill a little bit


----------



## 3 hound (19 April 2022)

The


divs4ever said:


> first EDUCATE yourself  , so you have a fair idea  what your adviser is telling you  ( and if it is good for you , or VERY good for them )
> 
> i got some financial advice  ( buy share-packs that their bank sold  , which of course meant you needed a trading account  via the very same bank  .. ( i chose not to take that advice )
> 
> ...



 The trading account I was recommended by my FP is CommSec, I assume that is a major mainstream player that is a safe environment to learn in??

The first (now done) was become 100% debt free. I told the FP his plan had to incorporate that move.

The next is either build a big shed and do some home improvements or just sell out and upgrade my place if I can do it without going into debt.

My biggest priority is stay debt free until I die. 

I know, can't make money if you don't spend it etc... I was a teenager when we still had yuppies and if they had a million they would borrow three.... didn't end well for most of those 80's yuppies in Australia.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2022)

and meantime, _Economic Implications of Covid_:


----------



## over9k (25 April 2022)

On our way back to square one.


----------



## divs4ever (25 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> The
> 
> The trading account I was recommended by my FP is CommSec, I assume that is a major mainstream player that is a safe environment to learn in??
> 
> ...




 OK   you NEED to revisit the Hayne Royal Commission  CBA got a mention there  maybe they have cleaned up the issues , or maybe the regulator has dozed off to sleep again ( or neck deep cleaning up it's own problems )

 but if you know what the issues used to be , you have a chance of side-stepping them ( if they still persist ) financial institutions have a habit of changing the lipstick colour on the pig .

 the behaviour you saw with the Yuppies is happening again  , but at least YOU know what happens next ( so you won't be shocked into inactivity )

 overall  your plan sounds similar to mine  ( i hope it works  for both of us )

 but remember a LITTLE bit of debt ( you can pay off quickly ) can be useful ( but it can be bloody addictive ) ,  , avoid being a forced seller ( that is a wealth killer , even worse than dumping and running for the sidelines  .. dump and run normally leaves you some cash and assets )

 Commsec has it's quirks , but the folks in support  are pretty good at their job ( heavens knows i have given them some tricky problems to solve  , and i haven't resorted to litigation  , so far ) ( just take a DEEP breath before you ring support )

  stay cautious ( at least for the first hour tomorrow ) it could dump OR bounce  .. keep an eye on commodity prices they might be the key ( to the Oz market )

 cheers


----------



## over9k (26 April 2022)

Covid outbreak you say? 




Deja vu anyone?


----------



## over9k (26 April 2022)

Alright close eyes on these numbers and their trend, if they keep increasing going into the weekend then we can expect the slaughter to continue into next week, if they look like rolling over a cheeky buy on friday might be on the cards.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> there is actually plenty of oil and gas sitting around undeveloped



There is but don't underestimate the time it takes to actually develop it.

That's especially so for Venezuela where the majority of the oil reserves are bitumen, requiring upgrading prior to sale or even being able to pump the stuff through a pipeline. It's mostly not high quality crude oil just waiting to be pumped, it's as heavy as it gets.


----------



## mullokintyre (26 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> There is but don't underestimate the time it takes to actually develop it.
> 
> That's especially so for Venezuela where the majority of the oil reserves are bitumen, requiring upgrading prior to sale or even being able to pump the stuff through a pipeline. It's mostly not high quality crude oil just waiting to be pumped, it's as heavy as it gets.



but they have good roads!
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (26 April 2022)

i was thinking of Australia , primarily  

 from memory BPT  has  several capped wells   waiting ... ( as opposed to abandoned ) , i am guessing  they are lacking  the plant and infrastructure needed to make them producers ( and maybe they need a higher oil price  to be profitable  )

 although with current prices bouncing around $US 100 a barrel  ,  what sort of baseline oil price do they need  ( some Ozzie wells in a small producer  had a break-even of $US 35 a barrel about 2 years back  ) , surely they can't expect a stable baseline of $US 120 plus , that would almost signal a collapsed global economy  ( by my reckoning )


----------



## over9k (26 April 2022)

over9k said:


> View attachment 140843
> 
> 
> Alright close eyes on these numbers and their trend, if they keep increasing going into the weekend then we can expect the slaughter to continue into next week, if they look like rolling over a cheeky buy on friday might be on the cards.



17,000 cases reported, chinese stocks hitting yet another low below where they were on 15 march


----------



## over9k (30 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> I want deep discounts. 50% off on all the stocks I want to buy.







Low enough yet?


----------



## moXJO (30 April 2022)

over9k said:


> View attachment 141086
> View attachment 141085
> 
> 
> Low enough yet?



P/E and peg stopped looking like it's a crypto valuation yet?

Well maybe I'll just do some short term swings.


----------



## sptrawler (30 April 2022)

Well who would have guessed.








						This Perth family signed a contract to build their dream home 75 weeks ago. They are still waiting to move in
					

The Kirtisingham family expect to wait another year before they can move into their home as the building industry struggles to keep up with demand created by stimulus grant payments, which experts say have had "unintended consequences".




					www.abc.net.au
				



It's been 75 weeks since Perth couple Cassie and Julian Kirtisingham signed a contract to build a five-bedroom, two-bathroom house in the city's southern suburbs.
Like many new home buyers, the couple signed up in late 2020 so they could take advantage of $20,000 WA government and $25,000 federal government stimulus grants designed to keep the construction industry alive during the pandemic.

The slab was laid in September last year, allowing them to qualify for the grants, and this was followed by the lower level of bricks in December.
"Sadly, even though our timber has been sitting there for six weeks, we are at nearly 72 weeks and no work has been done since early December," she posted in early April.
Yet since they signed their contract, the couple said their builder had given them two price increases, two contract extensions and had notified them of another.
Theirs is not an unusual story in Perth's overheated residential construction market, where the inflation rate is the highest of any capital city in the nation and the cost of building a new home rose by almost 16 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
Since many contracts were signed to qualify for the 2020 stimulus grants, the costs of building houses has risen sharply and is pushing many builders and new home buyers to the financial brink.


----------



## over9k (30 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> P/E and peg stopped looking like it's a crypto valuation yet?
> 
> Well maybe I'll just do some short term swings.



As if not just buy NRGU and SQQQ...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2022)

and a pertinent view from a foreign resident inside what is quickly re-establishing itself as the _Hermit Kingdom.

China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative_


> For now, China is not getting out of the corner the president has maneuvered the country into. They are prisoners of their own narrative. It’s rather tragic: China was the first to get into the pandemic, and it’s the last to get out. And in the meantime, they’ve been telling the whole world that they’re the best.












						«China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative» | The Market
					

Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, is concerned about the state of the world’s second largest economy. The Zero Covid policy has led the country into a dead end.




					themarket.ch
				




Lockdowns, logged ports, shrinking GDP numbers, fear of sanctions over Russia, paralysis until Xi gets his third term


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _China's Leadership Is Prisoner of Its Own Narrative_




SHANGHAI (Reuters) - _Quanta Shanghai Manufacturing City would seem like an ideal site to implement China's "closed-loop" management system to prevent the spread of COVID that requires staff to live and work on-site in a secure bubble._

_Sprawled over land the size of 20 football fields, the campus houses factories, living quarters for *40,000 workers*, some living 12 per room, and even a supermarket.

But as COVID-19 breeched Quanta's defences, the system broke down into chaos on Thursday.

Videos posted online showed more than a hundred Quanta *workers physically overwhelming security guards* in hazmat suits and vaulting over factory gates to escape being trapped inside the factory amid rumours that workers on the floor that day tested positive for COVID._

_The turmoil at Quanta underscores the struggles Shanghai faces to get its factories, many of them key links in global supply chains, back up to speed even as much of the city of 25 million remains locked down under China's "dynamic-zero" COVID policy._

_Taiwan-based Quanta puts together about three-quarters of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s global MacBook production and also manufactures computer circuit boards for Tesla_ (NASDAQ:TSLA). ....









						Chaos at Apple supplier Quanta shows strains of Shanghai COVID lockdown By Reuters
					

Chaos at Apple supplier Quanta shows strains of Shanghai COVID lockdown




					au.investing.com
				




...... it was never going to work. As the story ends "*What a mess*".


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## moXJO (9 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> SHANGHAI (Reuters) - _Quanta Shanghai Manufacturing City would seem like an ideal site to implement China's "closed-loop" management system to prevent the spread of COVID that requires staff to live and work on-site in a secure bubble._
> 
> _Sprawled over land the size of 20 football fields, the campus houses factories, living quarters for *40,000 workers*, some living 12 per room, and even a supermarket.
> 
> ...




It's funnier with video:


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## over9k (18 May 2022)

Alright so we've had some news about lockdowns lifting in china so we see everything back into the green with NDX and R2K running the hardest in anticipation of a supply lift, so the barbell spread is back in play assuming things keep on their path back to normal. Also seen energy plummet and then run on the lockdowns and then lifting of them accordingly. 

So everything old is new again.


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## over9k (18 May 2022)

This is also an encouraging sign.


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## Dona Ferentes (25 May 2022)

the Shanghai Automobile Sales Association came out with updated numbers.



> “_It is estimated that the sales volumes of new cars in the Shanghai auto market in *April is about 0 units*.”_




such exactitude, yet hedging their bets?


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## qldfrog (21 July 2022)

There is no lack of irony with most commentators here in Australia booing the covid 0 policy in China, and recent lockdowns in Shanghai etc.
It seems commonly assumed that all the shortages we have everywhere are due to a sudden fall of oroduction from China.
Well that is the story but may not hold that much truth:
Total exports from China are reaching records, and that's not oil or gas😊


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## qldfrog (22 July 2022)

One of the consequences of covid engineered economic crisis is supply of urea 
Adding the west embargo with Russia and we are lacking fertilizer and AdBlue worldwide.
Ipl soon to close its factory in brisbane,the situation is critical to say the least with millions starving now,and Sri Lanka collapsed after day dreaming of organic farming
And we ensure,helped with their anc that we do our part

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07...t-construction-pause-rock-art-fears/101258864


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## qldfrog (20 August 2022)

Following an exchange with @rcw1 who was mentioning and i quote:
"Built resilience and loyalty to unprecedented levels btw employer and employee - image that ... most employees stayed and did the job to this day increasing productivity and performance, a united front to this very day;" i have a VERY different experience.
We have the great resignation movement still going on  https://panatimes.com/why-workers-just-won-t-stop-quitting
and i learnt today about quiet quiting..








						3 millennials on their experience of quiet quitting: ‘I'm not going to overwork myself anymore’
					

Quiet quitting, a term newly in the zeitgeist of the American work lingo, describes the experience of doing your job without going above and beyond.




					www.cnbc.com


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## againsthegrain (20 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Following an exchange with @rcw1 who was mentioning and i quote:
> "Built resilience and loyalty to unprecedented levels btw employer and employee - image that ... most employees stayed and did the job to this day increasing productivity and performance, a united front to this very day;" i have a VERY different experience.
> We have the great resignation movement still going on  https://panatimes.com/why-workers-just-won-t-stop-quitting
> and i learnt today about quiet quiting..
> ...




I think this is a result of a totally inefficient system, its been happening for years the bucket is literally ready to burst and spill the fat. We need to stop patching it up.  Let them all quit and starve, let the fake businesses go bust and the strong emerge from the ashes


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## divs4ever (20 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Following an exchange with @rcw1 who was mentioning and i quote:
> "Built resilience and loyalty to unprecedented levels btw employer and employee - image that ... most employees stayed and did the job to this day increasing productivity and performance, a united front to this very day;" i have a VERY different experience.
> We have the great resignation movement still going on  https://panatimes.com/why-workers-just-won-t-stop-quitting
> and i learnt today about quiet quiting..
> ...



 from my ( limited ) interactions with the working people   many are actively engaged in 'side-hustles' ( 'cos the main job doesn't fully cover the bills ) OR  are pursuing  extra educational qualifications ( and once qualified looking to move on to a better career )

 considering my experiences in the workplace ( when i was still working )  i find it laughable that SOME businesses  expect any loyalty at all ( please note that excludes the very small businesses  where the boss/owner  turns up to work everyday beside you )


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## divs4ever (20 August 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I think this is a result of a totally inefficient system, its been happening for years the bucket is literally ready to burst and spill the fat. We need to stop patching it up.  Let them all quit and starve, let the fake businesses go bust and the strong emerge from the ashes



 that would have  a large number of 'megacorps ' implode 

now that would suit me fine ( despite the hit to the portfolio value ) 

 but the disruption resulting  would cause other issues  , are there enough ( mentally ) tough people willing to take on the needed tasks left in this society


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## qldfrog (22 August 2022)

Obviously, the west has built resilience, and brought manufacturing back , shorten distribution chains, etc etc..that is what we are told
Well guess what, worse now than pre COVID..who would
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 have guessed🥴
I see a replay of the EU gas debacle when China put the CCP flag  on Taipei...


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## Smurf1976 (22 August 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Obviously, the west has built resilience, and brought manufacturing back , shorten distribution chains, etc etc..that is what we are told



To actually achieve that is a generational thing.

Even just building this sort of thing can take 5 years, and that's after all the finances and so on are in place and it's ready to start physical work on site.

Then there's the reality that to set up manufacturing of x, you first need to have set up manufacturing of y and to set up y you first need need to set up z.

It took ~40 years to dismantle and it'll take much the same time to rebuild realistically.


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## SirRumpole (22 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> To actually achieve that is a generational thing.
> 
> Even just building this sort of thing can take 5 years, and that's after all the finances and so on are in place and it's ready to start physical work on site.
> 
> ...




It would be interesting to know the effects of the withdrawal of vehicle manufacturing in this country, it wasn't just the body shells , a lot of component manufacturers must have gone bust too.


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## qldfrog (22 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> To actually achieve that is a generational thing.
> 
> Even just building this sort of thing can take 5 years, and that's after all the finances and so on are in place and it's ready to start physical work on site.
> 
> ...



Fully agree, no quick fix, not to mention missing human skills...


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## over9k (22 August 2022)




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## sptrawler (22 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> It would be interesting to know the effects of the withdrawal of vehicle manufacturing in this country, it wasn't just the body shells , a lot of component manufacturers must have gone bust too.



Those component manufacturers that didn't go bust when car manufacturing stopped in Australia, are certainly going to find it difficult over the next 10 years, as E.V manufacturing increases and the number of ICE vehicles decreases.
100 years ago every town had a blacksmith, 30 years ago major towns had an engine reconditioning shop and small towns had a couple of garages that did recon engine replacement and radiators had copper/brass cores and tanks that could be soldered.
The world is changing and the rate of change is accelerating.


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## qldfrog (22 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Those component manufacturers that didn't go bust when car manufacturing stopped in Australia, are certainly going to find it difficult over the next 10 years, as E.V manufacturing increases and the number of ICE vehicles decreases.
> 100 years ago every town had a blacksmith, 30 years ago major towns had an engine reconditioning shop and small towns had a couple of garages that did recon engine replacement and radiators had copper/brass cores and tanks that could be soldered.
> The world is changing and the rate of change is accelerating.



But it's all ok, we got baristas, NDIS helpers, Job search support companies and Team PR and media officers..all Good I say;
another little effort:  ban meat and agriculture after obviously mining and we will live in Eden


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## SirRumpole (22 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Those component manufacturers that didn't go bust when car manufacturing stopped in Australia, are certainly going to find it difficult over the next 10 years, as E.V manufacturing increases and the number of ICE vehicles decreases.
> 100 years ago every town had a blacksmith, 30 years ago major towns had an engine reconditioning shop and small towns had a couple of garages that did recon engine replacement and radiators had copper/brass cores and tanks that could be soldered.
> The world is changing and the rate of change is accelerating.



Yes and people adapt to changing conditions. EVs are an opportunity not a threat but we have to get in quick or we will miss the bus. Ed Husic is making encouraging sounds about a local EV industry, cause for optimism


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## sptrawler (22 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes and people adapt to changing conditions. EVs are an opportunity not a threat but we have to get in quick or we will miss the bus. Ed Husic is making encouraging sounds about a local EV industry, cause for optimism



They certainly do, I can't understand why we don't have more battery grade processing plants and even battery manufacturing plants.
It isn't as though the only batteries required will be for E.V's there will be a massive amount of static storage batteries required and they will require replacement and refurbishment.
Or is this another essential product we are going to source from China? As we have done with everything else.
Like I've said before, it was only in 2009 we closed down our solar panel manufacturing in Homebush NSW, they must have realised, "shut it down before it becomes profitable and relocate it in a cheap labour country, before people want to know why". 😂
"But what about the subsidies? Don't worry about them, we will get them anyway. It is just we will make three times as much on the Chinese panels".
The clever country, that sharp we cut ourselves.


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