# Rules for when to sell a stock



## RandomInvestor (5 April 2017)

Hey guys, I am just curious to know your rules when to sell a stock? Like I have heard when it becomes overvalued or things like the stock doesn't align with your goals, or something in the company has changed etc. But the other one is if it falls by a certain amount I seen this guy say if it drops 10% he sells it, but then I hear other stuff which says buy more its cheap (this depends obviously not every price drop is going to mean its cheap. But if it is beneath the intrinsic value wouldn't it make sense to buy more?

Like I understand in investing you need to take the emotion out of it, and was watching a Martin Skhreli video (he is a stock investor) and says have rules if its 10% make it 10%. But wouldn't you want to buy more if its beneath intrinsic value? He said something like if it drops a certain amount you should think "where did I go wrong?, was my analysis wrong?" but in the short term shouldn't you just ignore prices drops 10-20% etc? Fair enough if over 10 years the stock price is doing crappy. Also one last thing just because it did drop say 20% that doesn't really prove your analysis was wrong imo, am I missing something?


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## galumay (5 April 2017)

I dont like hard and fast rules about selling prices, in some ways knowing when to sell is harder than knowing when to buy. Another perspective is that if you do a good enough job in selecting the companies you want to become a part owner of, then you should never sell.

I have invested in a businesse that lost 95% of the price I paid, I averaged down and held on and came out selling with a massive profit, but then again I have held SGH all the way down and never expect to see any meaningful amount of my capital returned!

So for me like everything else in investing, there are no absolute rules. On that basis I dont really have any useful ideas for you!


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## Tightwad (6 April 2017)

if it starts taking over my folio or reaches an amount i'm not comfortsble with i sell down a bit, of course i've been caught with a stock that keeps going up but at least i've locked in profit and i'm using it elsewhere.

other reasons are if i stop believing in the company, eg. the management loses the plot/i get sick of management and excuses or mistreating holders, loss of competitive advantage, being at the wrong end of the cycle for a cyclical stock, the outlook changes - company won't be able to generate the same numbers within a reasonable timeframe, a better opportunity comes up, etc.


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## pixel (6 April 2017)

> *On Share Prices*
> _A piece of advice from Phil Carret’s The Art of Speculation:_
> If you have 1000 shares of a stock worth currently, say, $9, disregard entirely the price you paid for it. Rather ask yourself this question:* “If I had $9,000 cash today and wished to buy some security, would I choose this stock in preference to every one of the thousands of other securities available to me?”*
> If the answer is strongly negative, sell the stock! It should not make the slightest difference whether the stock cost you $5 or $13.
> *Your entry price is totally irrelevant, but the average punter gives it considerable weight.*



find more at: http://rettmer.com.au/TrinityHome/Trinity/Musings.htm#onshareprices


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## galumay (6 April 2017)

Good quote, Pixel. A nice example of inversion thinking.


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## pixel (6 April 2017)

galumay said:


> Good quote, Pixel. A nice example of inversion thinking.



Thanks Galumay
The underlying conviction is this: Individual investors and traders are small minnows in a big ocean. The Market doesn't know us nor does it care at what price an individual bought. The Market doesn't give a rat's whether I'm in profit or not. It moves the prices of its own accord: trending up, down, or neither. In order to stay afloat, I make it my business to determine the trend a stock is in, then follow the trend until it's turning.

ATR Envelopes have been serving me well for that purpose. The greatest benefit in charting them lies in the fact that I can select and backtest the channel width that proved most efficient for the applicable trading period of any particular stock.
http://rettmer.com.au/TrinityHome/Helps/cTrinityDuo.htm


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## galumay (6 April 2017)

Pixel, whats interesting to me is that even in people of totally different conviction and world view there can be lessons learnt, I find any believe in trending and charting to be totally logically non-sensical. Despite that what you posted resonated with me and is a strong example of second level thinking, something I am always trying to apply. BTW I also totally agree with your comment that the market doesnt know or care about individuals and pricing - something that many investors and traders have a blind spot to.


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## tech/a (6 April 2017)

Radges quote always resonates.

_It doesn't matter that your wrong
Only how long you stay wrong!_


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## pixel (6 April 2017)

tech/a said:


> Radges quote always resonates.
> 
> _It doesn't matter that your wrong
> Only how long you stay wrong!_



"The Market can stay wrong*) far longer than you can stay solvent."

*) "wrong" in your (not so humble) opinion


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## tech/a (6 April 2017)

"When your wrong and everyone else hasn't worked out your right!"'


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## RandomInvestor (6 April 2017)

galumay said:


> I dont like hard and fast rules about selling prices, in some ways knowing when to sell is harder than knowing when to buy. Another perspective is that if you do a good enough job in selecting the companies you want to become a part owner of, then you should never sell.
> 
> I have invested in a businesse that lost 95% of the price I paid, I averaged down and held on and came out selling with a massive profit, but then again I have held SGH all the way down and never expect to see any meaningful amount of my capital returned!
> 
> So for me like everything else in investing, there are no absolute rules. On that basis I dont really have any useful ideas for you!



 Ah ok thanks man.


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## RandomInvestor (6 April 2017)

pixel said:


> find more at: http://rettmer.com.au/TrinityHome/Trinity/Musings.htm#onshareprices



Thanks pixel sounds good.


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## galumay (6 April 2017)

pixel said:


> "The Market can stay wrong*) far longer than you can stay solvent."




Whilst this is one of those sayings that resonates with us, i reckon its largely nonsense. Markets dont stay wrong for very long periods of time usually and rarely would a market being wrong mean that an investor was made insolvent. 

When I think about it this seems more logical to me, "The market can stay wrong, far longer than most can stay patient."

There is also some sort of inverse of it, "The market will stay right, far longer than most can stay patient."


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## luutzu (6 April 2017)

galumay said:


> Whilst this is one of those sayings that resonates with us, i reckon its largely nonsense. Markets dont stay wrong for very long periods of time usually and rarely would a market being wrong mean that an investor was made insolvent.
> 
> When I think about it this seems more logical to me, "The market can stay wrong, far longer than most can stay patient."
> 
> There is also some sort of inverse of it, "The market will stay right, far longer than most can stay patient."




That's just stupid.

Those who somehow could short the Australia property market would have gone broke by now. It's been irrational for at least the past three years.

Or watch The Big Short. Dr Burry was the first to see an irrational market and short the heck out of it. The fraud and market exuberance went on for a couple of years after his bet and it almost buried him. His investors want their money out, his "mentor" want nothing to do with him and the dude have to play legal games to stretch out the timing to prevent massive soon-to-be-realised losses if they can get their capital back without going to court.

So that observation from Keynes is to warn against thinking that the market is rarely irrational and will fix itself up "soon". That is, don't bet on the market knowing what rationality is. You'll loose your shirt before the market rationally does anything.


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## Ves (6 April 2017)

luutzu said:


> So that observation from Keynes is to warn against thinking that the market is rarely irrational and will fix itself up "soon". That is, don't bet on the market knowing what rationality is. You'll loose your shirt before the market rationally does anything.



Bit of trivia,  but I think the quote: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" is possibly falsely attributed to Keynes.  There's actually no evidence of him saying it outside of a second hand anecdote that appeared in the 90s.  Found that interesting, myself.


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## luutzu (6 April 2017)

Ves said:


> Bit of trivia,  but I think the quote: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" is possibly falsely attributed to Keynes.  There's actually no evidence of him saying it outside of a second hand anecdote that appeared in the 90s.  Found that interesting, myself.




Cool. didn't know that. Always thought it was his.

Went to a quotation site and apparently he first says that it's better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. Always thought that was Graham or Buffett's. 

Quite a few other fine one-liners there too.


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## Ves (6 April 2017)

luutzu said:


> Cool. didn't know that. Always thought it was his.
> 
> Went to a quotation site and apparently he first says that it's better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. Always thought that was Graham or Buffett's.
> 
> Quite a few other fine one-liners there too.



Yeah there are heaps of one-liners attributed to Keynes.  I think there's quite a few of them that have no direct source (ie. in his books or speeches) though. I guess at the end of the day as long as the quote is good it doesn't matter who says it!


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## luutzu (6 April 2017)

Ves said:


> Yeah there are heaps of one-liners attributed to Keynes.  I think there's quite a few of them that have no direct source (ie. in his books or speeches) though. I guess at the end of the day as long as the quote is good it doesn't matter who says it!




True.


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## skc (6 April 2017)

pixel said:


> "The Market can stay wrong*) far longer than you can stay solvent."
> 
> *) "wrong" in your (not so humble) opinion




How about

_"You only make profit when the market is wrong"_


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## OmegaTrader (7 April 2017)

RandomInvestor said:


> Hey guys, I am just curious to know your rules when to sell a stock? Like I have heard when it becomes overvalued or things like the stock doesn't align with your goals, or something in the company has changed etc. But the other one is if it falls by a certain amount I seen this guy say if it drops 10% he sells it, but then I hear other stuff which says buy more its cheap (this depends obviously not every price drop is going to mean its cheap. But if it is beneath the intrinsic value wouldn't it make sense to buy more?
> 
> Like I understand in investing you need to take the emotion out of it, and was watching a Martin Skhreli video (he is a stock investor) and says have rules if its 10% make it 10%. But wouldn't you want to buy more if its beneath intrinsic value? He said something like if it drops a certain amount you should think "where did I go wrong?, was my analysis wrong?" but in the short term shouldn't you just ignore prices drops 10-20% etc? Fair enough if over 10 years the stock price is doing crappy. Also one last thing just because it did drop say 20% that doesn't really prove your analysis was wrong imo, am I missing something?




1) if your strategy tells you to sell
Part of the development of a plan/strategy would include when to sell,buy etc. This would be different on an individual basis.

2) something is going wrong
Maybe if circumstances or underlying assumptions have changed then re assessment may be to sell out of the trade. This would counter the strategy rules but would probably be before the strategy trigger to sell has been implemented.

3) You are killing the strategy
One is not investing anymore, retirement, need the money, strategy stops working etc etc


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## RandomInvestor (8 April 2017)

OmegaTrader said:


> 1) if your strategy tells you to sell
> Part of the development of a plan/strategy would include when to sell,buy etc. This would be different on an individual basis.
> 
> 2) something is going wrong
> ...



Ah ok. Just curious say your stock falls 15% for example do you think about why it possibly fell and requestion your analysis even?


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## pixel (8 April 2017)

RandomInvestor said:


> Ah ok. Just curious say your stock falls 15% for example do you think about why it possibly fell and requestion your analysis even?



Of course! Show me an investor who claims his analyses are always correct, and I'll show you a conceited liar. And it doesn't take a drop of 15% to amend an analysis.

The best advice I received as a beginner, and would urge every beginner to pin on top of the wall above the computer screen, is -
*"Before you even buy a stock, write down your reason, your expectation, your time frame. And when you have bought, regularly check the stock's actual performance against the written criteria - and have the discipline to act."*
If you fail to heed that advice, you will ultimately fail to be successful.


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## galumay (8 April 2017)

I agee, keeping a decision journal is a really useful exercise. It helps a lot with controlling the self delusion we all unconciously engage in!


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## OmegaTrader (8 April 2017)

RandomInvestor said:


> Ah ok. Just curious say your stock falls 15% for example do you think about why it possibly fell and requestion your analysis even?




DYOR  This is NOT advice

No one can answer that question. It  depends on the strategy. A technical trader may be out already. A fundamental may reconsider the situation, A passive investor may still be holding. A techno-fundamental may ??? depends


Following on from previous post.

Say three hypothetical examples: A passive market follower, A Pure fundamental investor ,  Technical  trader

*Passive *

Passive follower knows nothing. Works 9-5 is busy and just purchases market tracker/ market tracking portfolio every 3 months. No analysis, limited time. It is a bet on the future of the Australian economy.

1) The strategy says never sell.

2) If something goes wrong.... Well.. The analysis can't be wrong because  the follower knows nothing. Just sit there and hope it turns around. Which it has for the last 100+ Years ???

3) killing the strategy. The follower retires and wants to spend the inheritance. Needs to pay expensive lawyer or medical bills, nuke hits australia etc etc 

*Pure Fundamental investor*

1) The strategy is to beat the market by identifying undervalued companies. The strategy says not to sell unless fundamentals have changed. Fundamental doesn't care what the market price is day to day. F thinks price has fallen 15% but the business is the same why sell ?F has has a long time to live. F thinks do people know something I don't ? 

2) F realises circumstances have changed. Maybe the company has consistently earnings lower than the earnings F estimated. Perhaps the industry has changed etc etc. F re-analyses the situation and finds that it is better to sell or maybe it is better to buy, it just depends. Hopefully F learns from the mistakes and opportunities.

3)F realises he can't beat the market and gives up or retires with his riches and spends the inheritance.


Technical trader

1) Strategy says sell at point x or resistance or support etc etc. Once the stop is hit TT sells. No excuses. TT has researched the strategy and found the applicable stop levels and postion sizing etc etc

2) The price is moving differently to what TT thought. TT pulls the trade early or when the stop hits. TT analysses his decsionmaing or his algos decision making to see if this a profitable decsion

3) TT strategy is not beating the market or economically viable or TT doesn't trade anymore. TT kills it.


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## Miner (9 April 2017)

pixel said:


> find more at: http://rettmer.com.au/TrinityHome/Trinity/Musings.htm#onshareprices



Good one Pixel.
No pun here but my wife often challenges me investing on shares and losing money instead of keeping them on fixed term deposit for a steady return than losing the capital.
I could not disclose the hidden addiction of mine on playing stocks. 
Of late I have ben apply applying her  and now your advice before putting any stock investment and to ratify its value. Past loss can not be recovered but the new strategy is working well.


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## tech/a (11 April 2017)

I'm pretty well on a similar Page to Quant.

System/systematic trading -- exit rules are simple just follow your blueprint.
OR adapt to your daily runs.

However in a *Discretionary* trading environment I'm not surprised at some of the answers.

I have 2 very strong and strict rules on exits.

*(1) Preserve initial capital.
*
Here I'm ruthless. If I see a setup which triggers only to fall immediately below my buy trigger
I'm out and I don't care if that happens 10 times straight.

Its been my experience that the number of times my stop loss is hit after a direct U-turn way exceeds the number of times a
trade reverses out of a reversal straight after a trigger and then heads skyward somewhere above my initial stop.

I place an initial stop for position sizing only. It only gets hit rarely when it reverses very hard after an initial trigger.

This helps my capital risk on each trade to be between 1-.5% with a lot exited at B/E.
I'm more than happy to place it in a watch list for another opportunity. Many great trades come from re entries!

I hardly see this mentioned here or anywhere (Re-entry) Most prefer averaging DOWN--to me a gamble more than a
trading strategy---martingale.

*(2) Preserve profit.*

There are 2 areas I'll give a little more reign.
(1) Trading in the first week *ABOVE* the Trigger.
(2) A more mature trade which is developing a pattern during a pause
*above* a pattern trailing stop. In other words if a bar destroys a potential
pattern to the downside I'm out.

Other than that its a bar by bar proposition read in context with volume, range
and pattern.
Id rather exit early and be re-entering a trade in quick succession than exiting late and lamenting
indecision and lost profit.


The bottom line is a number of good trades are *eventually* built while the weakest are discarded for minimal loss.
( Rarely having over 5 older trades open at the one time ).
These trades can and do go on to be many multiples of my accumulated losses.
It only takes days to re coup a string of failed trade drawdowns---not weeks or months.

Its something I've settled on after 20+ years of trading. Its comfortable and like riding a bike.
Really everyone should feel just as comfortable with their plan.

What I tend to see missing is the *OBJECTIVE* of the plan.
I have *2*


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## gaius (13 April 2017)

There is a rule and it is dead simple: There is no need to sell until you need to spend the money.

Central banks and whoever in power will make sure that nothing bad could happen to the market. All dips can only be temporary and any dips are buying opportunities. In current low interest rate super accommodative 'new normal' environment, all investors need to do is buy.

Fundamentally, low interest rate means stock valuations always look cheap. Don't forget valuation fair price could go infinity if interest rate is 0.

Sentimentally, nothing could go wrong in this market. Every piece of bad news is good news nowadays. Rising commodity & energy price means demand pickup; Inflation pick up means world economy is picking up; Rising interest rate means we are on track with recovery; uncertain political risk means opportunity to reform; geopolitical tension means potential war and potential increase in industrial demand...

Although SPI futures currently down like what 20 points this morning before open, it will come back and past 6000 in no time. This is just another perfect buy opportunity. All you need to do is buy in a diversified (just fancy word of saying buying a variety of stocks), and don't worry about sell. Central banks and governments will ensure nothing bad could happen to the market.


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## galumay (13 April 2017)

gaius said:


> Central banks and governments will ensure nothing bad could happen to the market.




Tell that to the Japanese, or the Venezuelans!


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## Boggo (13 April 2017)

galumay said:


> Tell that to the Japanese, or the Venezuelans!




or the Greeks, or the Irish !


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## gaius (13 April 2017)

As an investor, all I care is a strategy that earns me money. Frankly I'm not concerned what academically might happen. We all know that probably of accident while driving a car is greater than zero. You can worry all day and looking for opportunities to jump out of the car. The rest of the world will just keep moving on.

The market is extremely resilience. This kind of unnecessary worries is exactly how people got killed in this market.

I just can't see anything on the horizon that could derail the market. Just like Sydney property market, as crazy as it might look, the structure of the market means there's only one direction the market could go, and that is up.

Don't bother sell, but rather focus energy on how to increase your gearing. That's how to outperform the general market. The only rational thing to do in low rate environment is borrow to invest.

The question shouldn't be when to sell, but how to buy more.


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## Quant (13 April 2017)

^^^^^    This has to be a troll     popping the popcorn and getting a drink to watch this , should be good >>>


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## galumay (13 April 2017)

*Pulls up chair besides Quant*

Wanna beer with that popcorn?


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## gaius (13 April 2017)

galumay said:


> *Pulls up chair besides Quant*
> 
> Wanna beer with that popcorn?




Well I know this might sound crazy to some, but the world is crazy. Believe it or not, today is just another example of good buy while some fearful people jumped.

Who knows, over the weekend, in this crazy world, Kim Jong Un might actually test fire a few missiles only for US to shoot them down. US people cheers for strong America overnight, media swiftly jump to conclude that Kim is no longer a threat, investors see geopolitical tension eased, market back to focus on economic fundamentals (whatever that means), oldguards who jumped out today can't bear missing out jump right back in, and the market continue its way up again.


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## tech/a (13 April 2017)

When this sort of rubbish turns up
I seriously question why I bother writing 
A page of info.


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## OmegaTrader (13 April 2017)

tech/a said:


> When this sort of rubbish turns up
> I seriously question why I bother writing
> A page of info.





gaius said:


> Well I know this might sound crazy to some, but the world is crazy. Believe it or not, today is just another example of good buy while some fearful people jumped.
> 
> WTF
> 
> ...




To help donkeys like me


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## gaius (18 April 2017)

tech/a said:


> When this sort of rubbish turns up
> I seriously question why I bother writing
> A page of info.




I don't get those so call rules/trading strategies. Those things do nothing good but give people an illusion of having control in the market where they have absolutely no control of.

Look at how the market structure today, there isn't really any need for those old-school trading wisdom. The market simply biased towards the upside and just keep rising. It isn't really a question of when to sell. The key is how to buy more.


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## tech/a (18 April 2017)

gaius said:


> I don't get those so call rules/trading strategies.




You wouldn't. You've not investigated or used them.



> Those things do nothing good but give people an illusion of having control in the market where they have absolutely no control of.




A naïve comment.
You can control when to buy and when to sell
When to add
When to watch.

You can do all of the above Today/Tomorrow/In the next Hr/never. That's control.



> Look at how the market structure today, there isn't really any need for those old-school trading wisdom. The market simply biased towards the upside and just keep rising. It isn't really a question of when to sell. The key is how to buy more.




Personally its a question of maximizing profit and minimizing loss.
Having my hard earned working for me in the most efficient way I can design.
Constant buying without selling (For me) doesn't cut it.


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## skc (18 April 2017)

gaius said:


> Don't bother sell, but rather focus energy on how to *increase your gearing*. That's how to outperform the general market. The only rational thing to do in low rate environment is borrow to invest.




Storm Financial group uses that model quite successfully. You should try to contact them.


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## gaius (18 April 2017)

skc said:


> Storm Financial group uses that model quite successfully. You should try to contact them.




Interest rate is low, money are cheap. It would be stupid not to borrow more.

I'm not going to worry about things that could not happen. How much could the market possibly fall? 500 points? I give it 1000 points max. We live in the 21st century now. With all the advancement in technologies, regulations and central bank policies. Things like 1929 crash simply cannot happen in the modern world.


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## Smurf1976 (18 April 2017)

Buy and don't sell works reasonably well in a secular bull market. You won't make the maximum possible but it's an easy approach and will make you a profit as such assuming you're buying something which tracks the index or a reasonably diverse range of individual stocks. In a secular bull you'll make money simply by being in the market with reasonable diversification.

In a secular bear market however it's a very different story. Just throwing money at the market (eg into an index fund or just buying a range of individual stocks with no real research) is a pretty sure way to lose money or at best not make anything more than you'd get far more safely and easily with a bank deposit.

Looking at the US market, since that's what a lot of my research focuses on, it's very clear that there has been a bull market for the past 8 years. It is also apparent that the market is now in the third and usually final stage of that bull run. Just throwing money at the market (index fund etc) at the beginning of the bull would have made money for sure but doing that as the end approaches is likely to produce a very different outcome....

Saying the market goes up and there is no point in selling after an 8 year bull run is akin to saying in January that the weather in Australia always gets warmer since it has for the past few months and that you won't need warm clothing or heating in the future. History says otherwise.

Someone who bought a generic portfolio of shares listed on the ASX in March 2009 and has held since then will today be far, far happier with their investments than someone who bought the same portfolio just 17 months earlier in October 2007, after which the All Ordinaries fell approximately 50%.


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## tech/a (18 April 2017)

Your correct

Worse can and will happen.

You need to read the book "The Crisis of Over crowding"



While Governments insist on spending money they don't have.
Financial Armageddon is always a step closer.
1929 will seem like a walk in the park.


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## gaius (20 April 2017)

The market is fundamentally different nowadays after the great invention - QE. It is structurally impossible for the market to crash nowadays. XVI up to 14 this week from 8 mid-March and SPI barely moved still sitting at 5800. The market simply can't fall.

Active management is dead. Central banks are gods. Worship them, have faith in them and keep buying.

In this structurally up market, sell is pointless. Like those who sold at the beginning of this week will have to rush back in when they see SPI open up 30/40 points tomorrow morning.

It is not just a secular bull market but a structurally up market.


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## galumay (21 April 2017)

gaius said:


> The market simply can't fall.




Words fail me.


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## tech/a (21 April 2017)

I have a word

TROLL


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## galumay (21 April 2017)

tech/a said:


> I have a word
> 
> TROLL




You are right Mr Duck, and more fool me for throwing scraps under the bridge!


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## pixel (21 April 2017)

tech/a said:


> I seriously question why I bother writing a page of info.



I hope you don't stop, Daffy.
You don't write for trolls, but for a large number of community members who read and understand what you have to offer. So, you may not always see them or hear from them, but if ever there is a "silent majority", it's those members and guests who benefit.


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## gaius (21 April 2017)

The market did open 30 to 40 points higher, didn't it? And it is pushing higher, isn't it? TICK index reaching over 100 to 150 showing people are rushing in to buy, isn't it?

It isn't only me saying. This is just how the market structure nowadays.


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## cynic (21 April 2017)

gaius said:


> The market did open 30 to 40 points higher, didn't it? And it is pushing higher, isn't it? TICK index reaching over 100 to 150 showing people are rushing in to buy, isn't it?
> 
> It isn't only me saying. This is just how the market structure nowadays.



I agree that the post QE market is a very different paradigm to that of the pre QE.

There was a time when I might have agreed with the comment that the market, by its very structure, is heavily biased towards the upside, on account of the presence of that highly reliable support level, namely zero!

NIRP taking the stage, has given me cause to question the sanctity of that formerly infallible support level.


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## skyQuake (21 April 2017)

RandomInvestor said:


> Hey guys, I am just curious to know your rules when to sell a stock?





gaius said:


> As an investor, all I care is a strategy that earns me money. Frankly I'm not concerned what academically might happen. We all know that probably of accident while driving a car is greater than zero. You can worry all day and looking for opportunities to jump out of the car. The rest of the world will just keep moving on.
> 
> The market is extremely resilience. This kind of unnecessary worries is exactly how people got killed in this market.
> 
> ...




Now!


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## RandomInvestor (21 April 2017)

Interesting stuff.


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## MARKETWINNER (23 April 2017)

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/wondering-when-to-sell-a-stock-use-this-4minute-checklist-cm205897


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