# CMO - ComTel Corporation



## Dutchy3 (6 January 2007)

Caught napping .... again. Have to stop taking holidays .....

Um ... not much to say except I'd consider this textbook for a LONG position ...

Anyone know what they actually do?


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## reece55 (6 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Dutchy
"Commoditel Limited (CMO, formerly Natural Intelligence Limited) is involved in information management and distribution solutions as well as resource intelligence. The company operates through two divisions, Natural Resource Intelligence and Natural Systems Intelligence. The company operates through two active wholly owned subsidiaries CommodiTel (Australia) Pty Ltd and Adaptive Systems Pty Ltd." Per Comsec.

http://www.commoditel.com.au/ is the website.

Not much cash left at September 06 - $176K. They have recently completed an agreement to purchase 20K + customers from Vodaphone - they appear to specialize in pre-paid phones in Aus. This is being funded by way of a convertible note issue (4.6 Mil). Strong operating cash flow however - turnover 1 Mil for quarter.... not too bad at all.

So, not too much here fundamentally..... but technically, December was looking good...... Interesting. Thanks for pointing this one out.....

Cheers
Reece


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## Dutchy3 (6 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Cheers reece55

Likewise for the FA ... Not going to be a major portion of my portfolio yet I see that it has to be a strong %age performer


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## wintermute (12 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

ummm I think that description is from the comsuck profile and is way out of date... perhaps this post that I posted at topstocks my give a little more pespective   I posted this back on 3/12/2006 when the sp was at 0.8c  Note that since that post the vodaphone customer base has been purchased.

_When I first looked at CMO (purely from the point of view I could get a lot of them for a small outlay) I wasn't very impressed.... seemed like one of those companies that endlessly re-invents itself, each time promising wonderful things, and doing a new cap rasing to keep it afloat... well it is down to sub 1c now (I bought in at .9c a while back, in hindsight I should have waited a bit longer, but I think now is not a bad time, if you look at the medium term).

Anyway, this time they have moved into the mobile phone market (with a twist), but the difference this time is that the board was given a shake out (ie they finally got rid of the people that had apparently been the problem with the company) and they actually hired some people who know a bit about the business they are now in (for example David Sweet, who was a director of Vodaphone).

Come the 2nd quarter report I think that it might just see some action. Revenue for the last quarter was about $1 million, and they are about to buy a customer base off vodaphone, that should add another $2 million/ quarter in revenue.

They also recently wound down an unprofitable subsiduary, that was contributing a bit over 1 million towards their losses.

They have their own customers but also sell "white label" airtime which is effectively supplying "branded" mobiles. 7/11 is an example where you can get 7/11 prepaid... This has been very successful overseas, but I'm not sure that it is working out here in Aus.

There are approx 455 million shares on issue so the company has a tiny market cap of about 3.6 Million. They pretty much have no tangible assets (the customer base makes up their intangible assets), and I really haven't done that much research on them, but I thought 150,000 shares for just over $1k was worth a punt  _

Tony.

Link to original post


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## Jimmy001 (12 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

I'm with ya buddy... its not like its ever going to get to a dollar.. but if it could trade at 1c on some of its previous ****e performance then it can surely do a few more c on a turnaround and profit (fingers crossed).


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## clowboy (31 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Well this went fairly nuts late in arvo today on quarterly report.

As best I can tell they went from a small loss last quarter to an almost 1 mill profit this quarter.

Wishing I bought some more, but was too indecisive.

Anyone else have any thoughts?


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## Jimmy001 (31 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Still holding.. was hoping to see a bit better rise in it when they turned to a profit, but I think it was largely expected and thats why there was some big rounds of buying a few weeks ago. Still have to wait for next big news to give it another shove north I think.. hopefully they'll get some more decent contracts in the pipeline to keep the ball rolling.


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## clowboy (31 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Yea bear in mind though that it only released the announcment at 3.30, and it rallied to a high and close on a high.

I am hoping that the rally will continue on open tommorow.

But hey, wrong more often than right.


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## wintermute (31 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

I just put my tip in for Feb tipping comp  for CMO at 2:58PM... why couldn't they have released the quarterly tomorrow!! grumble grumble  

One thing to note, since that post that I quoted above, the shares on issue have grown to 800,000,000.  But even so they have approx $50 million in retained losses, so tax won't be an issue for a while... also if they can continue that sort of cash flow they will be looking at about 3.8 Million EBITDA  which comes to about 0.43 cents per share... don't know what depreciation and amortization will be like but tax won't be an issue for a while... still a fair bit more go in it yet I'd say!  wondering whether to pull my sell bid that is in at 2c...

Tony.


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## Jimmy001 (31 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Tony methinks everyone is all too aware of how many shares are out there.. as a result i expect serious profit taking at relatively low resistance points imo.

Clowboy good points, I forgot the ann timing.. hopefully continuing to run tomorrow... waiting to see what tomorrow brings.

Jimmy


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## Dutchy3 (31 January 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Hi All ... Classic set up for a good run. Hold on for the ride


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## doctorj (1 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				clowboy said:
			
		

> As best I can tell they went from a small loss last quarter to an almost 1 mill profit this quarter.



I've been watching Commoditel since they acquired the post pay business.  All looks positive thus far, but I should point out that a positive operating cash flow for the quarter does *not mean they turned a profit*.  The timing of receipts/payments and things like accruals or depreciation/amortisation may mean they actually make a loss.

I'm willing to bet they wouldn't have made a profit this half year.  Based on my analysis I'm personally expecting a small loss on the half year to december, but all the same its still an improvement.  There's a chance they may turn a profit on the 12 months to 30/06/07, depending on how much money they decide to pump into advertising this year.  Last year they spent a lot saying they expect to see the results flow to their bottom line this year.  Based on the quarterly, there's no conclusive evidence of that happening just yet.  

The challenge from here will be retaining their post paid customers and building their subscriber base.  Anyone got any options for sale?


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## wintermute (1 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

yes half yearly report is due soon, will be interesting to see how the accounting pans out..... certainly a lot of people willing to part with their shares for 1.5c this morning!!! every time a parcel appears for sale thay dissapear and another lump appears on the buy side... rather spectacular to watch!!

Some pretty hefty buying (and selling) going on there!!

Look at these sales...

Time	Price	Volume	Value	Conditions	Attributes	BuyXRef	SellXRef	
01/02/2007 10:30:22	0.015	100000	1500.00	XT	F			
01/02/2007 10:30:14	0.015	1204911	18073.66	XT	F			
01/02/2007 10:30:14	0.015	1500000	22500.00		G			
01/02/2007 10:30:14	0.015	295089	4426.34		G			
01/02/2007 10:29:56	0.015	666666	9999.99		F			
01/02/2007 10:27:53	0.015	538245	8073.68		F			
01/02/2007 10:27:40	0.015	2461755	36926.32		G			
01/02/2007 10:27:13	0.015	538245	8073.68		F			
01/02/2007 10:27:07	0.015	461755	6926.33	XT	G			
01/02/2007 10:26:47	0.015	138245	2073.68	XT	F			
01/02/2007 10:26:47	0.015	861755	12926.33		G			
01/02/2007 10:26:07	0.015	638245	9573.68		F			
01/02/2007 10:25:41	0.015	500000	7500.00		G			
01/02/2007 10:25:41	0.015	500000	7500.00		G		

Tony.


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## moses (21 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

CMO just keeps looking better and better. Volume is up, SP is up, buying pressure is up, smut money is positive, the entrails of the frog smell great...


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## wintermute (22 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Still holding here, bit of a pull back this afternoon, but to be expected after the last two days rises... I was tempted to sell some at 2.5c but resisted the urge... hopefully  was the right choice  

Tony.


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## CanOz (22 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> Still holding here, bit of a pull back this afternoon, but to be expected after the last two days rises... I was tempted to sell some at 2.5c but resisted the urge... hopefully  was the right choice
> 
> Tony.




I must admit, I sold out at 2.5...couldn't resist as I only had 4k in it. 20% is good enough for me, especially with so many other opportunities atm.

Good luck all.

Cheers,


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## Dutchy3 (25 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Price and Volume action on this one is about as good as I've ever seen on any stock .... HOLD


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## nizar (25 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				Dutchy3 said:
			
		

> Price and Volume action on this one is about as good as I've ever seen on any stock .... HOLD




This is a beauty!!!


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## doctorj (25 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Results out this week... lets see how it goes.


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## moses (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

up 12% already to 28c, where is this stock going to end up? 

Does anyone have a sensible exit point, or is this a stock to hold and hold?


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## nizar (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				moses said:
			
		

> up 12% already to 28c, where is this stock going to end up?
> 
> Does anyone have a sensible exit point, or is this a stock to hold and hold?





I would hold it until it turns.
And move your stop up.


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## CanOz (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> I would hold it until it turns.
> And move your stop up.




This is an interesting stock atm. It could struggle to get through .03, then consolidate or even drop back to .02, making for a C & H pattern, at which point i would get back in for sure as i love to trade Cup and Handles, very powerful price action.

Cheers,


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## doctorj (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Commoditel is due to report on Wednesday.  It appears punters are expecting a long overdue return to profitability for CMO based on their December quarterly.  I personally have my doubts (refer to the thread on cash flow vs profit for reasons as to why this might be the case). 

I agree CMO looks to be turning the corner, however I think it might be 6 months too soon.

I wonder just how many people have gotten onboard expecting a profit - in this case watch out for the buy-on-rumour, sell-on-fact effect come Wednesday.  If Wednesday brings anything less than a profit (or perhaps breaking even on the 6 months), I'd expect to see people head for the exits.  

Long term I'm bullish CMO, but I'm sitting on the sidelines at the moment and expecting some heavy selling on Thursday/Friday this week.


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## nizar (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> This is an interesting stock atm. It could struggle to get through .03, then consolidate or even drop back to .02, making for a C & H pattern, at which point i would get back in for sure as i love to trade Cup and Handles, very powerful price action.
> 
> Cheers,




Hmmm a white candle close on the high i mite get a few before close and flog them off at the open.


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## CanOz (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Hmmm a white candle close on the high i mite get a few before close and flog them off at the open.




Be careful mate, a 28% increase will attract a speeding ticket, and if theres nothing to reply to it may get sold off tomorrow AM.

Cheers,


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## nizar (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Be careful mate, a 28% increase will attract a speeding ticket, and if theres nothing to reply to it may get sold off tomorrow AM.
> 
> Cheers,




The last 1.5mil of those 3.2c got cleaned up pretty quickly there at the end.


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## wintermute (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

I sold a bit less than 1/3rd of my holding today at 0.032 so am now free carried  It is looking VERY overbought on the weekly charts RSI, I expect a pull back... but I also expect long term it is a goer  I agree that after full year reporting should be the time it really takes off.  If it pulls back to around the 0.02 mark I will probably buy some more  

I reckon the chances of a profit for 1st half are probably not high, or if there is one it will be small.... total +ve cash flow for the year was only $781,000 due to the first quarter loss of $170,000 and who knows what they will put in for amortization and depreciation related to the last two customer base purchases.

I'm happy though because I still have a reasonable number which can continue to rise or fall without any _real_ money being at stake  

Tony.


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## doctorj (26 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> II reckon the chances of a profit for 1st half are probably not high, or if there is one it will be small.... total +ve cash flow for the year was only $781,000 due to the first quarter loss of $170,000 and who knows what they will put in for amortization and depreciation related to the last two customer base purchases.



IIRC, Telstra amortise it over 11 years...


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## wintermute (27 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

hehehe I just saw I'm in first place in the Feb tipping Comp... this is really ironic, the last day of Jan CMO released the quarterly and the price jumped from 1.3 to 1.7 (so my start price for the comp was substantially up because of one day)  I thought ahhh no chance now... then today I'm leading on the second last day and the asx gives a speeding ticket!! doh... 

Tony.


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## CanOz (27 February 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> hehehe I just saw I'm in first place in the Feb tipping Comp... this is really ironic, the last day of Jan CMO released the quarterly and the price jumped from 1.3 to 1.7 (so my start price for the comp was substantially up because of one day)  I thought ahhh no chance now... then today I'm leading on the second last day and the asx gives a speeding ticket!! doh...
> 
> Tony.




And i picked it for next month! DOH!, heres a tip, you take my last months choice CXS, cos it looks like its forming a pennant! 

Cheers mate.


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## derkfoote (20 April 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Good week for CMO. With 1 more week until quarterly next week could be an interesting one. A volume increase over the week, looks like we might see 3c next week leading up to the quarterly.


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## Dutchy3 (29 April 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

150% in 5 months.

Pity no leverage offered ... this could get boring if .032 cant be breeched soon.


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## derkfoote (2 May 2007)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

I thought this was heading back to 2 as the quarterly was only fair. Today it hits 2.9 for a finish of 2.7 on large volume. I see the takeover of SNN as a step forward for CMO, but maybe something else is on the cards. Be an interesting day tommorrow. Can it break 3-3.2c or will it retreat.


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## Kremmen (18 February 2010)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

CMO has shot up over 60% in one day and nobody's commented on it. But surely someone is watching this one. At least Wysiwyg, who voted for it in the monthly stock tipping comp. Wysiwyg? What's going on?


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## Sean K (18 February 2010)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



Kremmen said:


> CMO has shot up over 60% in one day and nobody's commented on it. But surely someone is watching this one. At least Wysiwyg, who voted for it in the monthly stock tipping comp. Wysiwyg? What's going on?



So why did it shoot up. What's the story? Why should we think it's going to keep going? etc etc?


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## Wysiwyg (19 February 2010)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*



Kremmen said:


> CMO has shot up over 60% in one day and nobody's commented on it. But surely someone is watching this one. At least Wysiwyg, who voted for it in the monthly stock tipping comp. Wysiwyg? What's going on?



 Don't know why Kremmen. Quite a few rise suddenly for no apparent reason. Could be some "Hot Gossip" .


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## moses (19 February 2010)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

Its the volume. Somebody spent $80k in one purchase cleaning out over 4 million shares at just under 2c. Then later someone picked up a minor order at 2.9c to finish off the day. Very thinly traded, but at $80k in one buy on a very thinly traded stock it looks like someone knows something we don't.


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## wintermute (21 February 2010)

*Re: CMO - Commoditel*

or wants you to think so anyway... 

Holding at a bottom draw loss rate (will need almost a 1000% rise to break even unless I start swing trading it). 

There were all sorts of games being played with this one before the 10 for 1 consolidation (which it seems people thought was a share price spike because it very quickly went back to what it was before the 10 for one, which is how I got burnt).   I think some of the shenanigans were due to opes prime, lots of run ups and then down probably someone going long then selling and shorting for the drop. 

I'm waiting to see what happens... if it starts to behave like it did 2 years ago, will be good to trade, but be careful, as IMO it will be artificial. I made a quite a bit trading it before but then got caught holding when I should have sold, and lost more (on paper) than the profit I made doing the trades... 


edit: I originally bought at 0.007 (before the 10 for 1 consolidation) with the feeling they were a turnaround stock... this worked quite well, only problem was they seem to be masters at turning profits into losses via accounting methods, so have never actually managed to post a "real" profit, despite some quite healthy ebitda's. 

Tony.


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